Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bauman, William; Crawford, Winifred; Watson, Leela; Wheeler, Mark

2011-01-01

The AMU Team began four new tasks in this quarter: (1) began work to improve the AMU-developed tool that provides the launch weather officers information on peak wind speeds that helps them assess their launch commit criteria; (2) began updating lightning climatologies for airfields around central Florida. These climatologies help National Weather Service and Air Force forecasters determine the probability of lightning occurrence at these sites; (3) began a study for the 30th Weather Squadron at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California to determine if precursors can be found in weather observations to help the forecasters determine when they will get strong wind gusts in their northern towers; and (4) began work to update the AMU-developed severe weather tool with more data and possibly improve its performance using a new statistical technique. Include is a section of summaries and detail reporting on the quarterly tasks: (1) Peak Wind Tool for user Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (LCC), Phase IV, (2) Situational Lightning climatologies for Central Florida, Phase V, (3) Vandenberg AFB North Base Wind Study and (4) Upgrade Summer Severe Weather Tool Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (MIDDS).

Coupling the Canadian Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (CTEM v. 2.0) to Environment and Climate Change Canada's greenhouse gas forecast model (v.107-glb)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Badawy, Bakr; Polavarapu, Saroja; Jones, Dylan B. A.; Deng, Feng; Neish, Michael; Melton, Joe R.; Nassar, Ray; Arora, Vivek K.

2018-02-01

The Canadian Land Surface Scheme and the Canadian Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (CLASS-CTEM) together form the land surface component in the family of Canadian Earth system models (CanESMs). Here, CLASS-CTEM is coupled to Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC)'s weather and greenhouse gas forecast model (GEM-MACH-GHG) to consistently model atmosphere-land exchange of CO2. The coupling between the land and the atmospheric transport model ensures consistency between meteorological forcing of CO2 fluxes and CO2 transport. The procedure used to spin up carbon pools for CLASS-CTEM for multi-decadal simulations needed to be significantly altered to deal with the limited availability of consistent meteorological information from a constantly changing operational environment in the GEM-MACH-GHG model. Despite the limitations in the spin-up procedure, the simulated fluxes obtained by driving the CLASS-CTEM model with meteorological forcing from GEM-MACH-GHG were comparable to those obtained from CLASS-CTEM when it is driven with standard meteorological forcing from the Climate Research Unit (CRU) combined with reanalysis fields from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) to form CRU-NCEP dataset. This is due to the similarity of the two meteorological datasets in terms of temperature and radiation. However, notable discrepancies in the seasonal variation and spatial patterns of precipitation estimates, especially in the tropics, were reflected in the estimated carbon fluxes, as they significantly affected the magnitude of the vegetation productivity and, to a lesser extent, the seasonal variations in carbon fluxes. Nevertheless, the simulated fluxes based on the meteorological forcing from the GEM-MACH-GHG model are consistent to some extent with other estimates from bottom-up or top-down approaches. Indeed, when simulated fluxes obtained by driving the CLASS-CTEM model with meteorological data from the GEM-MACH-GHG model are used as prior estimates for an atmospheric CO2 inversion analysis using the adjoint of the GEOS-Chem model, the retrieved CO2 flux estimates are comparable to those obtained from other systems in terms of the global budget and the total flux estimates for the northern extratropical regions, which have good observational coverage. In data-poor regions, as expected, differences in the retrieved fluxes due to the prior fluxes become apparent. Coupling CLASS-CTEM into the Environment Canada Carbon Assimilation System (EC-CAS) is considered an important step toward understanding how meteorological uncertainties affect both CO2 flux estimates and modeled atmospheric transport. Ultimately, such an approach will provide more direct feedback to the CLASS-CTEM developers and thus help to improve the performance of CLASS-CTEM by identifying the model limitations based on atmospheric constraints.

New Satellite Constellation Uses Radio Occultation to Monitor Space Weather

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Mohi

2006-05-01

A constellation of six satellites, expected to enhance space weather research, improve terrestrial meteorology forecasts, and monitor climate change, were launched 15 April from Vandenberg Air Force Base, Calif.

Note: Measurement system for the radiative forcing of greenhouse gases in a laboratory scale.

PubMed

Kawamura, Yoshiyuki

2016-01-01

The radiative forcing of the greenhouse gases has been studied being based on computational simulations or the observation of the real atmosphere meteorologically. In order to know the greenhouse effect more deeply and to study it from various viewpoints, the study on it in a laboratory scale is important. We have developed a direct measurement system for the infrared back radiation from the carbon dioxide (CO2) gas. The system configuration is similar with that of the practical earth-atmosphere-space system. Using this system, the back radiation from the CO2 gas was directly measured in a laboratory scale, which roughly coincides with meteorologically predicted value.

Improved large-scale hydrological modelling through the assimilation of streamflow and downscaled satellite soil moisture observations.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

López López, Patricia; Wanders, Niko; Sutanudjaja, Edwin; Renzullo, Luigi; Sterk, Geert; Schellekens, Jaap; Bierkens, Marc

2015-04-01

The coarse spatial resolution of global hydrological models (typically > 0.25o) often limits their ability to resolve key water balance processes for many river basins and thus compromises their suitability for water resources management, especially when compared to locally-tunes river models. A possible solution to the problem may be to drive the coarse resolution models with high-resolution meteorological data as well as to assimilate ground-based and remotely-sensed observations of key water cycle variables. While this would improve the modelling resolution of the global model, the impact of prediction accuracy remains largely an open question. In this study we investigated the impact that assimilating streamflow and satellite soil moisture observations have on global hydrological model estimation, driven by coarse- and high-resolution meteorological observations, for the Murrumbidgee river basin in Australia. The PCR-GLOBWB global hydrological model is forced with downscaled global climatological data (from 0.5o downscaled to 0.1o resolution) obtained from the WATCH Forcing Data (WFDEI) and local high resolution gauging station based gridded datasets (0.05o), sourced from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Downscaled satellite derived soil moisture (from 0.5o downscaled to 0.1o resolution) from AMSR-E and streamflow observations collected from 25 gauging stations are assimilated using an ensemble Kalman filter. Several scenarios are analysed to explore the added value of data assimilation considering both local and global climatological data. Results show that the assimilation of streamflow observations result in the largest improvement of the model estimates. The joint assimilation of both streamflow and downscaled soil moisture observations leads to further improved in streamflow simulations (10% reduction in RMSE), mainly in the headwater catchments (up to 10,000 km2). Results also show that the added contribution of data assimilation, for both soil moisture and streamflow, is more pronounced when the global meteorological data are used to force the models. This is caused by the higher uncertainty and coarser resolution of the global forcing. This study demonstrates that it is possible to improve hydrological simulations forced by coarse resolution meteorological data with downscaled satellite soil moisture and streamflow observations and bring them closer to a hydrological model forced with local climatological data. These findings are important in light of the efforts that are currently done to go to global hyper-resolution modelling and can significantly help to advance this research.

Upper Blue Nile basin water budget from a multi-model perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jung, Hahn Chul; Getirana, Augusto; Policelli, Frederick; McNally, Amy; Arsenault, Kristi R.; Kumar, Sujay; Tadesse, Tsegaye; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.

2017-12-01

Improved understanding of the water balance in the Blue Nile is of critical importance because of increasingly frequent hydroclimatic extremes under a changing climate. The intercomparison and evaluation of multiple land surface models (LSMs) associated with different meteorological forcing and precipitation datasets can offer a moderate range of water budget variable estimates. In this context, two LSMs, Noah version 3.3 (Noah3.3) and Catchment LSM version Fortuna 2.5 (CLSMF2.5) coupled with the Hydrological Modeling and Analysis Platform (HyMAP) river routing scheme are used to produce hydrological estimates over the region. The two LSMs were forced with different combinations of two reanalysis-based meteorological datasets from the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications datasets (i.e., MERRA-Land and MERRA-2) and three observation-based precipitation datasets, generating a total of 16 experiments. Modeled evapotranspiration (ET), streamflow, and terrestrial water storage estimates were evaluated against the Atmosphere-Land Exchange Inverse (ALEXI) ET, in-situ streamflow observations, and NASA Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) products, respectively. Results show that CLSMF2.5 provided better representation of the water budget variables than Noah3.3 in terms of Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient when considering all meteorological forcing datasets and precipitation datasets. The model experiments forced with observation-based products, the Climate Hazards group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) and the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA), outperform those run with MERRA-Land and MERRA-2 precipitation. The results presented in this paper would suggest that the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) Land Data Assimilation System incorporate CLSMF2.5 and HyMAP routing scheme to better represent the water balance in this region.

Space Shuttle interactive meteorological data system study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Young, J. T.; Fox, R. J.; Benson, J. M.; Rueden, J. P.; Oehlkers, R. A.

1985-01-01

Although focused toward the operational meteorological support review and definition of an operational meteorological interactive data display systems (MIDDS) requirements for the Space Meteorology Support Group at NASA/Johnson Space Center, the total operational meteorological support requirements and a systems concept for the MIDDS network integration of NASA and Air Force elements to support the National Space Transportation System are also addressed.

Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bauman, William H., Jr.; Crawford, Winifred; Short, David; Barrett, Joe; Watson, Leela

2008-01-01

This report summarizes the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) activities for the second quarter of Fiscal Year 2008 (January - March 2008). Projects described are: (1) Peak Wind Tool for User Launch Commit Criteria (LCC), (2) Peak Wind Tool for General Forecasting, (3) Situational Lightning Climatologies for Central Florida. Phase III, (4) Volume Averaged Height Integrated Radar Reflectivity (VAHIRR), (5) Impact of Local Sensors, (6) Radar Scan Strategies for the PAFB WSR-74C Replacement and (7) WRF Wind Sensitivity Study at Edwards Air Force Base.

28. VIEW SOUTH FROM SLC3W MST STATION 63. FOREGROUND LEFT: ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

28. VIEW SOUTH FROM SLC-3W MST STATION 63. FOREGROUND LEFT: THEODOLITE SHELTER (BLDG. 786) CENTER LEFT TO RIGHT: GLOBAL POSITIONING SYSTEM AZIMUTH STATION (BLDG. 775), PYROTECHNIC SHED (BLDG. 757), PORTABLE GUARD SHED, METEOROLOGICAL SHED (BLDG. 756), METEOROLOGICAL TOWER. BACKGROUND CENTER TO RIGHT: STORAGE SHED (BLDG. 776), LIQUID OXYGEN APRON, SLC-3E MST, TOP OF SLC-3E FUEL STORAGE TANK. - Vandenberg Air Force Base, Space Launch Complex 3, Launch Pad 3 West, Napa & Alden Roads, Lompoc, Santa Barbara County, CA

Investigation of Climate Change Impact on Water Resources for an Alpine Basin in Northern Italy: Implications for Evapotranspiration Modeling Complexity

PubMed Central

Ravazzani, Giovanni; Ghilardi, Matteo; Mendlik, Thomas; Gobiet, Andreas; Corbari, Chiara; Mancini, Marco

2014-01-01

Assessing the future effects of climate change on water availability requires an understanding of how precipitation and evapotranspiration rates will respond to changes in atmospheric forcing. Use of simplified hydrological models is required beacause of lack of meteorological forcings with the high space and time resolutions required to model hydrological processes in mountains river basins, and the necessity of reducing the computational costs. The main objective of this study was to quantify the differences between a simplified hydrological model, which uses only precipitation and temperature to compute the hydrological balance when simulating the impact of climate change, and an enhanced version of the model, which solves the energy balance to compute the actual evapotranspiration. For the meteorological forcing of future scenario, at-site bias-corrected time series based on two regional climate models were used. A quantile-based error-correction approach was used to downscale the regional climate model simulations to a point scale and to reduce its error characteristics. The study shows that a simple temperature-based approach for computing the evapotranspiration is sufficiently accurate for performing hydrological impact investigations of climate change for the Alpine river basin which was studied. PMID:25285917

Investigation of climate change impact on water resources for an Alpine basin in northern Italy: implications for evapotranspiration modeling complexity.

PubMed

Ravazzani, Giovanni; Ghilardi, Matteo; Mendlik, Thomas; Gobiet, Andreas; Corbari, Chiara; Mancini, Marco

2014-01-01

Assessing the future effects of climate change on water availability requires an understanding of how precipitation and evapotranspiration rates will respond to changes in atmospheric forcing. Use of simplified hydrological models is required because of lack of meteorological forcings with the high space and time resolutions required to model hydrological processes in mountains river basins, and the necessity of reducing the computational costs. The main objective of this study was to quantify the differences between a simplified hydrological model, which uses only precipitation and temperature to compute the hydrological balance when simulating the impact of climate change, and an enhanced version of the model, which solves the energy balance to compute the actual evapotranspiration. For the meteorological forcing of future scenario, at-site bias-corrected time series based on two regional climate models were used. A quantile-based error-correction approach was used to downscale the regional climate model simulations to a point scale and to reduce its error characteristics. The study shows that a simple temperature-based approach for computing the evapotranspiration is sufficiently accurate for performing hydrological impact investigations of climate change for the Alpine river basin which was studied.

Statistical Short-Range Guidance for Peak Wind Speed Forecasts at Edwards Air Force Base, CA

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dreher, Joseph G.; Crawford, Winifred; Lafosse, Richard; Hoeth, Brian; Burns, Kerry

2009-01-01

The peak winds near the surface are an important forecast element for space shuttle landings. As defined in the Flight Rules (FR), there are peak wind thresholds that cannot be exceeded in order to ensure the safety of the shuttle during landing operations. The National Weather Service Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) is responsible for weather forecasts for all shuttle landings, and is required to issue surface average and 10-minute peak wind speed forecasts. They indicate peak winds are a challenging parameter to forecast. To alleviate the difficulty in making such wind forecasts, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) developed a PC-based graphical user interface (GUI) for displaying peak wind climatology and probabilities of exceeding peak wind thresholds for the Shuttle Landing Facility (SLF) at Kennedy Space Center (KSC; Lambert 2003). However, the shuttle occasionally may land at Edwards Air Force Base (EAFB) in southern California when weather conditions at KSC in Florida are not acceptable, so SMG forecasters requested a similar tool be developed for EAFB.

Cross-scale impact of climate temporal variability on ecosystem water and carbon fluxes

DOE PAGES

Paschalis, Athanasios; Fatichi, Simone; Katul, Gabriel G.; ...

2015-08-07

While the importance of ecosystem functioning is undisputed in the context of climate change and Earth system modeling, the role of short-scale temporal variability of hydrometeorological forcing (~1 h) on the related ecosystem processes remains to be fully understood. Additionally, various impacts of meteorological forcing variability on water and carbon fluxes across a range of scales are explored here using numerical simulations. Synthetic meteorological drivers that highlight dynamic features of the short temporal scale in series of precipitation, temperature, and radiation are constructed. These drivers force a mechanistic ecohydrological model that propagates information content into the dynamics of water andmore » carbon fluxes for an ensemble of representative ecosystems. The focus of the analysis is on a cross-scale effect of the short-scale forcing variability on the modeled evapotranspiration and ecosystem carbon assimilation. Interannual variability of water and carbon fluxes is emphasized in the analysis. The main study inferences are summarized as follows: (a) short-scale variability of meteorological input does affect water and carbon fluxes across a wide range of time scales, spanning from the hourly to the annual and longer scales; (b) different ecosystems respond to the various characteristics of the short-scale variability of the climate forcing in various ways, depending on dominant factors limiting system productivity; (c) whenever short-scale variability of meteorological forcing influences primarily fast processes such as photosynthesis, its impact on the slow-scale variability of water and carbon fluxes is small; and (d) whenever short-scale variability of the meteorological forcing impacts slow processes such as movement and storage of water in the soil, the effects of the variability can propagate to annual and longer time scales.« less

Cross-scale impact of climate temporal variability on ecosystem water and carbon fluxes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Paschalis, Athanasios; Fatichi, Simone; Katul, Gabriel G.

While the importance of ecosystem functioning is undisputed in the context of climate change and Earth system modeling, the role of short-scale temporal variability of hydrometeorological forcing (~1 h) on the related ecosystem processes remains to be fully understood. Additionally, various impacts of meteorological forcing variability on water and carbon fluxes across a range of scales are explored here using numerical simulations. Synthetic meteorological drivers that highlight dynamic features of the short temporal scale in series of precipitation, temperature, and radiation are constructed. These drivers force a mechanistic ecohydrological model that propagates information content into the dynamics of water andmore » carbon fluxes for an ensemble of representative ecosystems. The focus of the analysis is on a cross-scale effect of the short-scale forcing variability on the modeled evapotranspiration and ecosystem carbon assimilation. Interannual variability of water and carbon fluxes is emphasized in the analysis. The main study inferences are summarized as follows: (a) short-scale variability of meteorological input does affect water and carbon fluxes across a wide range of time scales, spanning from the hourly to the annual and longer scales; (b) different ecosystems respond to the various characteristics of the short-scale variability of the climate forcing in various ways, depending on dominant factors limiting system productivity; (c) whenever short-scale variability of meteorological forcing influences primarily fast processes such as photosynthesis, its impact on the slow-scale variability of water and carbon fluxes is small; and (d) whenever short-scale variability of the meteorological forcing impacts slow processes such as movement and storage of water in the soil, the effects of the variability can propagate to annual and longer time scales.« less

SpaceX Jason-3 Live Launch Broadcast - Part 1 of 4

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-01-17

At Space Launch Complex 4 at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California, a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket launches the Jason-3 spacecraft into orbit for NOAA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and EUMETSAT, the European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites. Built by Thales Alenia of France, Jason-3 will measure the topography of the ocean surface for a four-agency international partnership consisting of NOAA, NASA, Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales, France’s space agency, and the European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites.

SpaceX Jason-3 Live Launch Broadcast - Part 4 of 4

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-01-17

At Space Launch Complex 4 at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California, a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket launches the Jason-3 spacecraft into orbit for NOAA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and EUMETSAT, the European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites. Built by Thales Alenia of France, Jason-3 will measure the topography of the ocean surface for a four-agency international partnership consisting of NOAA, NASA, Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales, France’s space agency, and the European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites.

SpaceX Jason-3 Live Launch Broadcast - Part 3 of 4

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-01-17

At Space Launch Complex 4 at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California, a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket launches the Jason-3 spacecraft into orbit for NOAA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and EUMETSAT, the European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites. Built by Thales Alenia of France, Jason-3 will measure the topography of the ocean surface for a four-agency international partnership consisting of NOAA, NASA, Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales, France’s space agency, and the European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites.

SpaceX Jason-3 Live Launch Broadcast - Part 2 of 4

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-01-17

At Space Launch Complex 4 at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California, a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket launches the Jason-3 spacecraft into orbit for NOAA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and EUMETSAT, the European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites. Built by Thales Alenia of France, Jason-3 will measure the topography of the ocean surface for a four-agency international partnership consisting of NOAA, NASA, Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales, France’s space agency, and the European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites.

5. VIEW OF CABLE SHED AND CABLE TRAY EMANATING FROM ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

5. VIEW OF CABLE SHED AND CABLE TRAY EMANATING FROM SOUTH FACE OF LAUNCH OPERATIONS BUILDING. MICROWAVE DISH IN FOREGROUND. METEOROLOGICAL TOWER IN BACKGROUND. - Vandenberg Air Force Base, Space Launch Complex 3, Launch Operations Building, Napa & Alden Roads, Lompoc, Santa Barbara County, CA

KSC-2015-1256

NASA Image and Video Library

2015-01-31

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. – A Delta II rocket lifts off Space Launch Complex 2 at Vandenberg Air Force Base, carrying NASA's Soil Moisture Active Passive satellite, or SMAP, to Earth orbit. Liftoff was at 9:22 a.m. EST. SMAP's measurements will be invaluable across many science and applications disciplines including hydrology, climate, carbon cycle, and the meteorological, environmental and ecology applications communities. SMAP is designed to produce the highest-resolution maps of soil moisture ever obtained from space. To learn more about SMAP, visit http://www.nasa.gov/smap. Photo credit: NASA/Kim Shiflett

Downwind hazard calculations for space shuttle launches at Kennedy Space Center and Vandenberg Air Force Base

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Susko, M.; Hill, C. K.; Kaufman, J. W.

1974-01-01

The quantitative estimates are presented of pollutant concentrations associated with the emission of the major combustion products (HCl, CO, and Al2O3) to the lower atmosphere during normal launches of the space shuttle. The NASA/MSFC Multilayer Diffusion Model was used to obtain these calculations. Results are presented for nine sets of typical meteorological conditions at Kennedy Space Center, including fall, spring, and a sea-breeze condition, and six sets at Vandenberg AFB. In none of the selected typical meteorological regimes studied was a 10-min limit of 4 ppm exceeded.

120. INERTIAL MEASUREMENT UNIT (IMU) NITROGEN PURGE REGULATOR PANEL FOR ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

120. INERTIAL MEASUREMENT UNIT (IMU) NITROGEN PURGE REGULATOR PANEL FOR DEFENSE METEOROLOGICAL SYSTEM PROGRAM (DMSP) PAYLOADS IN SOUTHWEST CORNER OF VEHICLE MECHANICAL SYSTEMS ROOM (111), LSB (BLDG. 770) - Vandenberg Air Force Base, Space Launch Complex 3, Launch Pad 3 West, Napa & Alden Roads, Lompoc, Santa Barbara County, CA

A framework for improving a seasonal hydrological forecasting system using sensitivity analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arnal, Louise; Pappenberger, Florian; Smith, Paul; Cloke, Hannah

2017-04-01

Seasonal streamflow forecasts are of great value for the socio-economic sector, for applications such as navigation, flood and drought mitigation and reservoir management for hydropower generation and water allocation to agriculture and drinking water. However, as we speak, the performance of dynamical seasonal hydrological forecasting systems (systems based on running seasonal meteorological forecasts through a hydrological model to produce seasonal hydrological forecasts) is still limited in space and time. In this context, the ESP (Ensemble Streamflow Prediction) remains an attractive forecasting method for seasonal streamflow forecasting as it relies on forcing a hydrological model (starting from the latest observed or simulated initial hydrological conditions) with historical meteorological observations. This makes it cheaper to run than a standard dynamical seasonal hydrological forecasting system, for which the seasonal meteorological forecasts will first have to be produced, while still producing skilful forecasts. There is thus the need to focus resources and time towards improvements in dynamical seasonal hydrological forecasting systems which will eventually lead to significant improvements in the skill of the streamflow forecasts generated. Sensitivity analyses are a powerful tool that can be used to disentangle the relative contributions of the two main sources of errors in seasonal streamflow forecasts, namely the initial hydrological conditions (IHC; e.g., soil moisture, snow cover, initial streamflow, among others) and the meteorological forcing (MF; i.e., seasonal meteorological forecasts of precipitation and temperature, input to the hydrological model). Sensitivity analyses are however most useful if they inform and change current operational practices. To this end, we propose a method to improve the design of a seasonal hydrological forecasting system. This method is based on sensitivity analyses, informing the forecasters as to which element of the forecasting chain (i.e., IHC or MF) could potentially lead to the highest increase in seasonal hydrological forecasting performance, after each forecast update.

Space based inverse modeling of seasonal variations of anthropogenic and natural emissions of nitrogen oxides over China and effects of uncertainties in model meteorology and chemistry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, J.

2011-12-01

Nitrogen oxides (NOx ≡ NO + NO2) are important atmospheric constituents affecting the tropospheric chemistry, surface air quality and climatic forcing. They are emitted both from anthropogenic and from natural (soil, lightning, biomass burning, etc.) sources, which can be estimated inversely from satellite remote sensing of the vertical column densities (VCDs) of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) in the troposphere. Based on VCDs of NO2 retrieved from OMI, a novel approach is developed in this study to separate anthropogenic emissions of NOx from natural sources over East China for 2006. It exploits the fact that anthropogenic and natural emissions vary with seasons with distinctive patterns. The global chemical transport model (CTM) GEOS-Chem is used to establish the relationship between VCDs of NO2 and emissions of NOx for individual sources. Derived soil emissions are compared to results from a newly developed bottom-up approach. Effects of uncertainties in model meteorology and chemistry over China, an important source of errors in the emission inversion, are evaluated systematically for the first time. Meteorological measurements from space and the ground are used to analyze errors in meteorological parameters driving the CTM.

What is the relative role of initial hydrological conditions and meteorological forcing to the seasonal hydrological forecasting skill? Analysis along Europe's hydro-climatic gradient

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pechlivanidis, Ilias; Crochemore, Louise

2017-04-01

Recent advances in understanding and forecasting of climate have led into skilful seasonal meteorological predictions, which can consequently increase the confidence of hydrological prognosis. The majority of seasonal impact modelling has commonly been conducted at only one or a limited number of basins limiting the potential to understand large systems. Nevertheless, there is a necessity to develop operational seasonal forecasting services at the pan-European scale, capable of addressing the end-user needs. The skill of such forecasting services is subject to a number of sources of uncertainty, i.e. model structure, parameters, and forcing input. In here, we complement the "deep" knowledge from basin based modelling by investigating the relative contributions of initial hydrological conditions (IHCs) and meteorological forcing (MF) to the skill of a seasonal pan-European hydrological forecasting system. We use the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) and reverse ESP (revESP) procedure to show a proxy of hydrological forecasting uncertainty due to MF and IHC uncertainties respectively. We further calculate the critical lead time (CLT), as a proxy of the river memory, after which the importance of MFs surpasses the importance of IHCs. We analyze these results in the context of prevailing hydro-climatic conditions for about 35000 European basins. Both model state initialisation (level in surface water, i.e. reservoirs, lakes and wetlands, soil moisture, snow depth) and provision of climatology are based on forcing input derived from the WFDEI product for the period 1981-2010. The analysis shows that the contribution of ICs and MFs to the hydrological forecasting skill varies considerably according to location, season and lead time. This analysis allows clustering of basins in which hydrological forecasting skill may be improved by better estimation of IHCs, e.g. via data assimilation of in-situ and/or satellite observations; whereas in other basins skill improvement depends on better MFs.

A New Multivariate Approach in Generating Ensemble Meteorological Forcings for Hydrological Forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khajehei, Sepideh; Moradkhani, Hamid

2015-04-01

Producing reliable and accurate hydrologic ensemble forecasts are subject to various sources of uncertainty, including meteorological forcing, initial conditions, model structure, and model parameters. Producing reliable and skillful precipitation ensemble forecasts is one approach to reduce the total uncertainty in hydrological applications. Currently, National Weather Prediction (NWP) models are developing ensemble forecasts for various temporal ranges. It is proven that raw products from NWP models are biased in mean and spread. Given the above state, there is a need for methods that are able to generate reliable ensemble forecasts for hydrological applications. One of the common techniques is to apply statistical procedures in order to generate ensemble forecast from NWP-generated single-value forecasts. The procedure is based on the bivariate probability distribution between the observation and single-value precipitation forecast. However, one of the assumptions of the current method is fitting Gaussian distribution to the marginal distributions of observed and modeled climate variable. Here, we have described and evaluated a Bayesian approach based on Copula functions to develop an ensemble precipitation forecast from the conditional distribution of single-value precipitation forecasts. Copula functions are known as the multivariate joint distribution of univariate marginal distributions, which are presented as an alternative procedure in capturing the uncertainties related to meteorological forcing. Copulas are capable of modeling the joint distribution of two variables with any level of correlation and dependency. This study is conducted over a sub-basin in the Columbia River Basin in USA using the monthly precipitation forecasts from Climate Forecast System (CFS) with 0.5x0.5 Deg. spatial resolution to reproduce the observations. The verification is conducted on a different period and the superiority of the procedure is compared with Ensemble Pre-Processor approach currently used by National Weather Service River Forecast Centers in USA.

Effects of Meteorological Variability on the Thermosphere-Ionosphere System during the Moderate Geomagnetic Disturbed January 2013 Period As Simulated By Time-GCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maute, A. I.; Hagan, M. E.; Richmond, A. D.; Liu, H.; Yudin, V. A.

2014-12-01

The ionosphere-thermosphere system is affected by solar and magnetospheric processes and by meteorological variability. Ionospheric observations of total electron content during the current solar cycle have shown that variability associated with meteorological forcing is important during solar minimum, and can have significant ionospheric effects during solar medium to maximum conditions. Numerical models can be used to study the comparative importance of geomagnetic and meterological forcing.This study focuses on the January 2013 Stratospheric Sudden Warming (SSW) period, which is associated with a very disturbed middle atmosphere as well as with moderately disturbed solar geomagntic conditions. We employ the NCAR Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Mesosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIME-GCM) with a nudging scheme using Whole-Atmosphere-Community-Climate-Model-Extended (WACCM-X)/Goddard Earth Observing System Model, Version 5 (GEOS5) results to simulate the effects of the meteorological and solar wind forcing on the upper atmosphere. The model results are evaluated by comparing with observations e.g., TEC, NmF2, ion drifts. We study the effect of the SSW on the wave spectrum, and the associated changes in the low latitude vertical drifts. These changes are compared to the impact of the moderate geomagnetic forcing on the TI-system during the January 2013 time period by conducting numerical experiments. We will present select highlights from our study and elude to the comparative importance of the forcing from above and below as simulated by the TIME-GCM.

Trends and variability of daily temperature extremes during 1960-2012 in the Yangtze River Basin, China

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The variability of temperature extremes has been the focus of attention during the past few decades, and may exert a great influence on the global hydrologic cycle and energy balance through thermal forcing. Based on daily minimum and maximum temperature observed by the China Meteorological Administ...

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kawamura, Yoshiyuki

The radiative forcing of the greenhouse gases has been studied being based on computational simulations or the observation of the real atmosphere meteorologically. In order to know the greenhouse effect more deeply and to study it from various viewpoints, the study on it in a laboratory scale is important. We have developed a direct measurement system for the infrared back radiation from the carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) gas. The system configuration is similar with that of the practical earth-atmosphere-space system. Using this system, the back radiation from the CO{sub 2} gas was directly measured in a laboratory scale, which roughlymore » coincides with meteorologically predicted value.« less

Global Meteorological Drought: A Synthesis of Current Understanding with a Focus on SST Drivers of Precipitation Deficits

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schubert, S.; Stewart, R.; Wang, H.; Barlow, M.; Berbery, H.; Cai, W.; Hoerling, M.; Kanikicharla, K.; Koster, R.; Lyon, B.;

Meteorological Controls on Local and Regional Volcanic Ash Dispersal.

PubMed

Poulidis, Alexandros P; Phillips, Jeremy C; Renfrew, Ian A; Barclay, Jenni; Hogg, Andrew; Jenkins, Susanna F; Robertson, Richard; Pyle, David M

2018-05-02

Volcanic ash has the capacity to impact human health, livestock, crops and infrastructure, including international air traffic. For recent major eruptions, information on the volcanic ash plume has been combined with relatively coarse-resolution meteorological model output to provide simulations of regional ash dispersal, with reasonable success on the scale of hundreds of kilometres. However, to predict and mitigate these impacts locally, significant improvements in modelling capability are required. Here, we present results from a dynamic meteorological-ash-dispersion model configured with sufficient resolution to represent local topographic and convectively-forced flows. We focus on an archetypal volcanic setting, Soufrière, St Vincent, and use the exceptional historical records of the 1902 and 1979 eruptions to challenge our simulations. We find that the evolution and characteristics of ash deposition on St Vincent and nearby islands can be accurately simulated when the wind shear associated with the trade wind inversion and topographically-forced flows are represented. The wind shear plays a primary role and topographic flows a secondary role on ash distribution on local to regional scales. We propose a new explanation for the downwind ash deposition maxima, commonly observed in volcanic eruptions, as resulting from the detailed forcing of mesoscale meteorology on the ash plume.

Assessing the competing roles of model resolution and meteorological forcing fidelity in hyperresolution simulations of snowpack and streamflow in the southern Rocky Mountains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gochis, D. J.; Dugger, A. L.; Karsten, L. R.; Barlage, M. J.; Sampson, K. M.; Yu, W.; Pan, L.; McCreight, J. L.; Howard, K.; Busto, J.; Deems, J. S.

2017-12-01

Hydrometeorological processes vary over comparatively short length scales in regions of complex terrain such as the southern Rocky Mountains. Changes in temperature, precipitation, wind and solar radiation can vary significantly across elevation gradients, terrain landform and land cover conditions throughout the region. Capturing such variability in hydrologic models can necessitate the utilization of so-called `hyper-resolution' spatial meshes with effective element spacings of less than 100m. However, it is often difficult to obtain meteorological forcings of high quality in such regions at those resolutions which can result in significant uncertainty in fundamental in hydrologic model inputs. In this study we examine the comparative influences of meteorological forcing data fidelity and spatial resolution on seasonal simulations of snowpack evolution, runoff and streamflow in a set of high mountain watersheds in southern Colorado. We utilize the operational, NOAA National Water Model configuration of the community WRF-Hydro system as a baseline and compare against it, additional model scenarios with differing specifications of meteorological forcing data, with and without topographic downscaling adjustments applied, with and without experimental high resolution radar derived precipitation estimates and with WRF-Hydro configurations of progressively finer spatial resolution. The results suggest significant influence from and importance of meteorological downscaling techniques in controlling spatial distributions of meltout and runoff timing. The use of radar derived precipitation exhibits clear sensitivity on hydrologic simulation skill compared with the use of coarser resolution, background precipitation analyses. Advantages and disadvantages of the utilization of progressively higher resolution model configurations both in terms of computational requirements and model fidelity are also discussed.

Uncertainties in Past and Future Global Water Availability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheffield, J.; Kam, J.

2014-12-01

Understanding how water availability changes on inter-annual to decadal time scales and how it may change in the future under climate change are a key part of understanding future stresses on water and food security. Historic evaluations of water availability on regional to global scales are generally based on large-scale model simulations with their associated uncertainties, in particular for long-term changes. Uncertainties are due to model errors and missing processes, parameter uncertainty, and errors in meteorological forcing data. Recent multi-model inter-comparisons and impact studies have highlighted large differences for past reconstructions, due to different simplifying assumptions in the models or the inclusion of physical processes such as CO2 fertilization. Modeling of direct anthropogenic factors such as water and land management also carry large uncertainties in their physical representation and from lack of socio-economic data. Furthermore, there is little understanding of the impact of uncertainties in the meteorological forcings that underpin these historic simulations. Similarly, future changes in water availability are highly uncertain due to climate model diversity, natural variability and scenario uncertainty, each of which dominates at different time scales. In particular, natural climate variability is expected to dominate any externally forced signal over the next several decades. We present results from multi-land surface model simulations of the historic global availability of water in the context of natural variability (droughts) and long-term changes (drying). The simulations take into account the impact of uncertainties in the meteorological forcings and the incorporation of water management in the form of reservoirs and irrigation. The results indicate that model uncertainty is important for short-term drought events, and forcing uncertainty is particularly important for long-term changes, especially uncertainty in precipitation due to reduced gauge density in recent years. We also discuss uncertainties in future projections from these models as driven by bias-corrected and downscaled CMIP5 climate projections, in the context of the balance between climate model robustness and climate model diversity.

The United States Navy Arctic Roadmap for 2014 to 2030

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-02-01

of the Oceanographer of the Navy; the Chief of Naval Research; Commander, Naval Meteorology and Oceanography Command; Commander, Office of Naval...Q3, FY14 Q3, FY15 FY15-18 FY18 2.3.4: Improve traditional meteorological forecast capability in the polar regions through the...CNE Commander Naval Forces Europe CNIC Commander Navy Installations Command CNMOC Commander Naval Meteorology and Oceanography Command CNO Chief

Exploring impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation on Meteorological Forcing within the Glaciated Llanganuco Valley, Peru

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Covert, J. M.; Hellstrom, R. A.

2015-12-01

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is known to be the primary modulator of inter-annual weather patterns in the Andes, but its impact in the Cordillera Blanca (White Range) is not fully understood. In 2004 an autonomous sensor network (ASN) was installed in the Llanganuco Valley in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru consisting of two automatic weather stations (AWS) located at the base and upper ridge of the valley connected by four air temperature/humidity micro-loggers at equal elevation intervals. The ASN permits high resolution evaluations of the micro-scale meteorology within the valley. Twenty-four hour composites and monthly averages of wind, solar insolation, air temperature profiles, and precipitation obtained from the ASN were analyzed for the historical wet and dry seasons between the years of 2005 and 2015. The evidence suggests that teleconnections exist between eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures and meteorological forcing within the Valley. Comparisons between the two AWS units reveal similar ENSO impacts during the wet season that are not replicated in the dry season. We found that warm and cold ENSO create anomalies that appear unique to this region of the outer Tropics. Warm ENSO phases promote wetter than normal dry seasons and dryer than normal wet seasons and visa versa for cold phases of ENSO. Air temperature is strongly positively correlated to warm ENSO phases during the wet season and depends on elevation during the dry season. Insolation is negatively correlated to warm ENSO phases at higher elevations with weak positive correlation at lower elevations. We attribute observed seasonality, in part, to interactions between channeling of synoptic flow and thermally driven winds. Although the sporadic availability of data prevents definitive conclusions at this time, recent improvements in the ASN infrastructure will facilitate deeper understanding of ENSO impacts on meteorological forcing within pro-glacial valleys of the Cordillera Blanca.

Sensitivity of sea-level forecasting to the horizontal resolution and sea surface forcing for different configurations of an oceanographic model of the Adriatic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bressan, Lidia; Valentini, Andrea; Paccagnella, Tiziana; Montani, Andrea; Marsigli, Chiara; Stefania Tesini, Maria

2017-04-01

At the Hydro-meteo-climate service of the Regional environmental agency of Emilia-Romagna, Italy (Arpae-SIMC), the oceanographic numerical model AdriaROMS is used in the operational forecasting suite to compute sea level, temperature, salinity and 3-D current fields of the Adriatic Sea (northern Mediterranean Sea). In order to evaluate the performance of the sea-level forecast and to study different configurations of the ROMS model, two marine storms occurred on the Emilia Romagna coast during the winter 2015-2016 are investigated. The main focus of this study is to analyse the sensitivity of the model to the horizontal resolution and to the meteorological forcing. To this end, the model is run with two different configurations and with two horizontal grids at 1 and 2 km resolution. To study the influence of the meteorological forcing, the two storms have been reproduced by running ROMS in ensemble mode, forced by the 16-members of the meteorological ensemble COSMO-LEPS system. Possible optimizations of the model set-up are deduced by the comparison of the different run outputs.

Forecasting European Droughts using the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thober, Stephan; Kumar, Rohini; Samaniego, Luis; Sheffield, Justin; Schäfer, David; Mai, Juliane

2015-04-01

Soil moisture droughts have the potential to diminish crop yields causing economic damage or even threatening the livelihood of societies. State-of-the-art drought forecasting systems incorporate seasonal meteorological forecasts to estimate future drought conditions. Meteorological forecasting skill (in particular that of precipitation), however, is limited to a few weeks because of the chaotic behaviour of the atmosphere. One of the most important challenges in drought forecasting is to understand how the uncertainty in the atmospheric forcings (e.g., precipitation and temperature) is further propagated into hydrologic variables such as soil moisture. The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) provides the latest collection of a multi-institutional seasonal forecasting ensemble for precipitation and temperature. In this study, we analyse the skill of NMME forecasts for predicting European drought events. The monthly NMME forecasts are downscaled to daily values to force the mesoscale hydrological model (mHM). The mHM soil moisture forecasts obtained with the forcings of the dynamical models are then compared against those obtained with the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) approach. ESP recombines historical meteorological forcings to create a new ensemble forecast. Both forecasts are compared against reference soil moisture conditions obtained using observation based meteorological forcings. The study is conducted for the period from 1982 to 2009 and covers a large part of the Pan-European domain (10°W to 40°E and 35°N to 55°N). Results indicate that NMME forecasts are better at predicting the reference soil moisture variability as compared to ESP. For example, NMME explains 50% of the variability in contrast to only 31% by ESP at a six-month lead time. The Equitable Threat Skill Score (ETS), which combines the hit and false alarm rates, is analysed for drought events using a 0.2 threshold of a soil moisture percentile index. On average, the NMME based ensemble forecasts have consistently higher skill than the ESP based ones (ETS of 13% as compared to 5% at a six-month lead time). Additionally, the ETS ensemble spread of NMME forecasts is considerably narrower than that of ESP; the lower boundary of the NMME ensemble spread coincides most of the time with the ensemble median of ESP. Among the NMME models, NCEP-CFSv2 outperforms the other models in terms of ETS most of the time. Removing the three worst performing models does not deteriorate the ensemble performance (neither in skill nor in spread), but would substantially reduce the computational resources required in an operational forecasting system. For major European drought events (e.g., 1990, 1992, 2003, and 2007), NMME forecasts tend to underestimate area under drought and drought magnitude during times of drought development. During drought recovery, this underestimation is weaker for area under drought or even reversed into an overestimation for drought magnitude. This indicates that the NMME models are too wet during drought development and too dry during drought recovery. In summary, soil moisture drought forecasts by NMME are more skillful than those of an ESP based approach. However, they still show systematic biases in reproducing the observed drought dynamics during drought development and recovery.

Analysis of the US Air Force Defense Meteorological Satellite Program Imagery for Global Lightning

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Scharfen, Gregory R.

1999-01-01

The U. S. Air Force operates the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP), a system of near-polar orbiting satellites designed for use in operational weather forecasting and other applications. DMSP satellites carry a suite of sensors that provide images of the earth and profiles of the atmosphere. The National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) at the University of Colorado has been involved with the archival of DMSP data and its use for several research projects since 1979. This report summarizes the portion of this involvement funded by NASA.

Fundamental statistical relationships between monthly and daily meteorological variables: Temporal downscaling of weather based on a global observational dataset

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sommer, Philipp; Kaplan, Jed

2016-04-01

Accurate modelling of large-scale vegetation dynamics, hydrology, and other environmental processes requires meteorological forcing on daily timescales. While meteorological data with high temporal resolution is becoming increasingly available, simulations for the future or distant past are limited by lack of data and poor performance of climate models, e.g., in simulating daily precipitation. To overcome these limitations, we may temporally downscale monthly summary data to a daily time step using a weather generator. Parameterization of such statistical models has traditionally been based on a limited number of observations. Recent developments in the archiving, distribution, and analysis of "big data" datasets provide new opportunities for the parameterization of a temporal downscaling model that is applicable over a wide range of climates. Here we parameterize a WGEN-type weather generator using more than 50 million individual daily meteorological observations, from over 10'000 stations covering all continents, based on the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) and Synoptic Cloud Reports (EECRA) databases. Using the resulting "universal" parameterization and driven by monthly summaries, we downscale mean temperature (minimum and maximum), cloud cover, and total precipitation, to daily estimates. We apply a hybrid gamma-generalized Pareto distribution to calculate daily precipitation amounts, which overcomes much of the inability of earlier weather generators to simulate high amounts of daily precipitation. Our globally parameterized weather generator has numerous applications, including vegetation and crop modelling for paleoenvironmental studies.

A long-term data set for hydrologic modeling in a snow-dominated mountain catchment

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

An hourly modeling data set is presented for the water years 1984 through 2008 for a snow-dominated headwater catchment. Meteorological forcing data and GIS watershed characteristics are described and provided. The meteorological data are measured at two sites within the catchment, and include pre...

Radar Scan Strategies for the Patrick Air Force Base Weather Surveillance Radar, Model-74C, Replacement

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Short, David

2008-01-01

The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) is replacing the Weather Surveillance Radar, Model 74C (WSR-74C) at Patrick Air Force Base (PAFB), with a Doppler, dual polarization radar, the Radtec 43/250. A new scan strategy is needed for the Radtec 43/250, to provide high vertical resolution data over the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) launch pads, while taking advantage of the new radar's advanced capabilities for detecting severe weather phenomena associated with convection within the 45 WS area of responsibility. The Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) developed several scan strategies customized for the operational needs of the 45 WS. The AMU also developed a plan for evaluating the scan strategies in the period prior to operational acceptance, currently scheduled for November 2008.

Residential Ventilation: A Review of Established Systems and a Laboratory Investigation of the Fine Wire Heat Recovery Ventilator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

von Hippel, Matthew Hans Benjamin

A novel vehicle concept is introduced and its feasibility as an autonomous, self-propelled weather buoy for use in violent storm systems is analyzed. The vehicle concept is a spar sailboat -- consisting of only a deep keel and a sailing rig; no hull -- a design which is intended to improve longevity in rough seas as well as provide ideal placement opportunities for meteorological sensors. To evaluate the hypothetical locomotive and meteorological observation capabilities of the concept sailing spar in hurricane-like conditions, several relevant oceanographic phenomena are analyzed with the performance of the concept vehicle in mind. Enthalpy transfer from the ocean to the air is noted as the primary driving force of tropical storms and therefore becomes the measuring objective of the sailing spar. A discrete, iterative process for optimizing driving force while achieving equilibrium between the four airfoil surfaces is used to steer the sailing spar towards any objective despite variable and opposing simulated winds. Based on the limitations of sailing theory, logic is developed to autonomously navigate the sailing spar between human-selected waypoints on a digitized geographic map. Due the perceived inability to measure air-sea enthalpy exchange because the nature of tropical storms and due to its small scale, the sailing spar is deemed infeasible as a hurricane-capable meteorological observation platform.

An Overview of the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Merceret, Francis; Bauman, William; Lambert, Winifred; Short, David; Barrett, Joe; Watson, Leela

2007-01-01

The Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) acts as a bridge between research and operations by transitioning technology to improve weather support to the Shuttle and American space program. It is a NASA entity operated under a tri-agency agreement by NASA, the US Air Force, and the National Weather Service (NWS). The AMU contract is managed by NASA, operated by ENSCO, Inc. personnel, and is collocated with Range Weather Operations at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station. The AMU is tasked by its customers in the 45th Weather Squadron, Spaceflight Meteorology Group, and the NWS in Melbourne, FL with projects whose results help improve the weather forecast for launch, landing, and ground operations. This presentation describes the history behind the formation of the AMU, its working relationships and goals, how it is tasked by its customers, and examples of completed tasks.

Enhancing the USDA Global Crop Assessment Decision Support System Using SMAP Soil Moisture Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bolten, J. D.; Mladenova, I. E.; Crow, W. T.; Reynolds, C. A.

2016-12-01

The Foreign Agricultural Services (FAS) is a subdivision of U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) that is in charge with providing information on current and expected crop supply and demand estimates. Knowledge of the amount of water in the root zone is an essential source of information for the crop analysts as it governs the crop development and crop growth, which in turn determine the end-of-season yields. USDA FAS currently relies on root zone soil moisture (RZSM) estimates generated using the modified two-layer Palmer Model (PM). PM is a simple water-balance hydrologic model that is driven by daily precipitation observations and minimum and maximum temperature data. These forcing data are based on ground meteorological station measurements from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), and gridded weather data from the former U.S. Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA), currently called U.S. Air Force 557th Weather Wing. The PM was extended by adding a data assimilation (DA) unit that provides the opportunity to routinely ingest satellite-based soil moisture observations. This allows us to adjust for precipitation-related inaccuracies and enhance the quality of the PM soil moisture estimates. The current operational DA system is based on a 1-D Ensample Kalman Filter approach and relies on observations obtained from the Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity Mission (SMOS). Our talk will demonstrate the value of assimilating two satellite products (i.e. a passive and active) and discuss work that is done in preparation for ingesting soil moisture observations from the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission.

Climatology of meteorological ``bombs'' in the New Zealand region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leslie, L. M.; Leplastrier, M.; Buckley, B. W.; Qi, L.

2005-06-01

The purpose of this paper is to present a recently developed climatology of explosively developing south eastern Tasman Sea extra-tropical cyclones, or meteorological “bombs”, using a latitude dependent definition for meteorological bombs based on that of Simmonds and Keay (2000a, b), and Lim and Simmonds (2002). These highly transient systems, which have a damaging impact upon New Zealand, are frequently accompanied by destructive winds, flood rains, and coastal storm surges. Two cases are selected from the climatology and briefly described here. The first case study is the major flood and storm force wind event of June 20 to 21, 2002 that affected the Coromandel Peninsula region of the North Island of New Zealand. The second case was a “supercyclone” bomb that developed well to the southwest of New Zealand region during May 29 to 31, 2004, but which could easily have formed in the New Zealand region with catastrophic consequences. It was well-captured by the new high resolution Quikscat scatterometer instrument.

A globally calibrated scheme for generating daily meteorology from monthly statistics: Global-WGEN (GWGEN) v1.0

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sommer, Philipp S.; Kaplan, Jed O.

2017-10-01

While a wide range of Earth system processes occur at daily and even subdaily timescales, many global vegetation and other terrestrial dynamics models historically used monthly meteorological forcing both to reduce computational demand and because global datasets were lacking. Recently, dynamic land surface modeling has moved towards resolving daily and subdaily processes, and global datasets containing daily and subdaily meteorology have become available. These meteorological datasets, however, cover only the instrumental era of the last approximately 120 years at best, are subject to considerable uncertainty, and represent extremely large data files with associated computational costs of data input/output and file transfer. For periods before the recent past or in the future, global meteorological forcing can be provided by climate model output, but the quality of these data at high temporal resolution is low, particularly for daily precipitation frequency and amount. Here, we present GWGEN, a globally applicable statistical weather generator for the temporal downscaling of monthly climatology to daily meteorology. Our weather generator is parameterized using a global meteorological database and simulates daily values of five common variables: minimum and maximum temperature, precipitation, cloud cover, and wind speed. GWGEN is lightweight, modular, and requires a minimal set of monthly mean variables as input. The weather generator may be used in a range of applications, for example, in global vegetation, crop, soil erosion, or hydrological models. While GWGEN does not currently perform spatially autocorrelated multi-point downscaling of daily weather, this additional functionality could be implemented in future versions.

A comparative study of the response of modeled non-drizzling stratocumulus to meteorological and aerosol perturbations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petters, J. L.; Jiang, H.; Feingold, G.; Rossiter, D. L.; Khelif, D.; Sloan, L. C.; Chuang, P. Y.

2013-03-01

The impact of changes in aerosol and cloud droplet concentration (Na and Nd) on the radiative forcing of stratocumulus-topped boundary layers (STBLs) has been widely studied. How these impacts compare to those due to variations in meteorological context has not been investigated in a systematic fashion for non-drizzling overcast stratocumulus. In this study we examine the impact of observed variations in meteorological context and aerosol state on daytime, non-drizzling overcast stratiform evolution, and determine how resulting changes in cloud properties compare. Using large-eddy simulation (LES) we create a model base case of daytime southeast Pacific coastal stratocumulus, spanning a portion of the diurnal cycle (early morning to near noon) and constrained by observations taken during the VOCALS (VAMOS Ocean-Atmosphere-Land Study) field campaign. We perturb aerosol and meteorological properties around this base case to investigate the stratocumulus response. We determine perturbations in the cloud top jumps in potential temperature θ and total water mixing ratio qt from ECMWF Re-analysis Interim data, and use a set of Nd values spanning the observable range. To determine the cloud response to these meteorological and aerosol perturbations, we compute changes in liquid water path (LWP), bulk optical depth (τ) and cloud radiative forcing (CRF). We find that realistic variations in the thermodynamic jump properties can elicit a response in the cloud properties of τ and shortwave (SW) CRF that are on the same order of magnitude as the response found due to realistic changes in aerosol state (i.e Nd). In response to increases in Nd, the cloud layer in the base case thinned due to increases in evaporative cooling and entrainment rate. This cloud thinning somewhat mitigates the increase in τ resulting from increases in Nd. On the other hand, variations in θ and qt jumps did not substantially modify Nd. The cloud layer thickens in response to an increase in the θ jump and thins in response to an increase in the qt jump, both resulting in a τ and SW CRF response comparable to those found from perturbations in Nd. Longwave CRF was not substantially altered by the perturbations we tested. We find that realistic variations in meteorological context can elicit a response in CRF and τ on the same order of magnitude as, and at times larger than, that response found due to realistic changes in aerosol state. We estimate the limits on variability of cloud top jump properties required for accurate observation of aerosol SW radiative impacts on stratocumulus, and find strict constraints: less than 1 K and 1 g kg-1 in the early morning hours, and order 0.1 K and 0.1 g kg-1 close to solar noon. These constraints suggest that accurately observing aerosol radiative impacts in stratocumulus may be challenging as co-variation of meteorological properties may obfuscate aerosol-cloud interactions.

Skilful seasonal forecasts of streamflow over Europe?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arnal, Louise; Cloke, Hannah L.; Stephens, Elisabeth; Wetterhall, Fredrik; Prudhomme, Christel; Neumann, Jessica; Krzeminski, Blazej; Pappenberger, Florian

2018-04-01

This paper considers whether there is any added value in using seasonal climate forecasts instead of historical meteorological observations for forecasting streamflow on seasonal timescales over Europe. A Europe-wide analysis of the skill of the newly operational EFAS (European Flood Awareness System) seasonal streamflow forecasts (produced by forcing the Lisflood model with the ECMWF System 4 seasonal climate forecasts), benchmarked against the ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) forecasting approach (produced by forcing the Lisflood model with historical meteorological observations), is undertaken. The results suggest that, on average, the System 4 seasonal climate forecasts improve the streamflow predictability over historical meteorological observations for the first month of lead time only (in terms of hindcast accuracy, sharpness and overall performance). However, the predictability varies in space and time and is greater in winter and autumn. Parts of Europe additionally exhibit a longer predictability, up to 7 months of lead time, for certain months within a season. In terms of hindcast reliability, the EFAS seasonal streamflow hindcasts are on average less skilful than the ESP for all lead times. The results also highlight the potential usefulness of the EFAS seasonal streamflow forecasts for decision-making (measured in terms of the hindcast discrimination for the lower and upper terciles of the simulated streamflow). Although the ESP is the most potentially useful forecasting approach in Europe, the EFAS seasonal streamflow forecasts appear more potentially useful than the ESP in some regions and for certain seasons, especially in winter for almost 40 % of Europe. Patterns in the EFAS seasonal streamflow hindcast skill are however not mirrored in the System 4 seasonal climate hindcasts, hinting at the need for a better understanding of the link between hydrological and meteorological variables on seasonal timescales, with the aim of improving climate-model-based seasonal streamflow forecasting.

The Effect of Subsurface Parameterizations on Modeled Flows in the Catchment Land Surface Model, Fortuna 2.5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roningen, J. M.; Eylander, J. B.

2014-12-01

Groundwater use and management is subject to economic, legal, technical, and informational constraints and incentives at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. Planned and de facto management practices influenced by tax structures, legal frameworks, and agricultural and trade policies that vary at the country scale may have medium- and long-term effects on the ability of a region to support current and projected agricultural and industrial development. USACE is working to explore and develop global-scale, physically-based frameworks to serve as a baseline for hydrologic policy comparisons and consequence assessment, and such frameworks must include a reasonable representation of groundwater systems. To this end, we demonstrate the effects of different subsurface parameterizations, scaling, and meteorological forcings on surface and subsurface components of the Catchment Land Surface Model Fortuna v2.5 (Koster et al. 2000). We use the Land Information System 7 (Kumar et al. 2006) to process model runs using meteorological components of the Air Force Weather Agency's AGRMET forcing data from 2006 through 2011. Seasonal patterns and trends are examined in areas of the Upper Nile basin, northern China, and the Mississippi Valley. We also discuss the relevance of the model's representation of the catchment deficit with respect to local hydrogeologic structures.

Impact of meteorological data resolution on the forecasted ozone concentrations during the ESCOMPTE IOP2a and IOP2b

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menut, Laurent; Coll, Isabelle; Cautenet, Sylvie

2005-03-01

During the summer 2001, several photo-oxidant pollution episodes were documented around Marseilles-Fos-Berre in the South of France within the framework of the ESCOMPTE campaign. The site is composed of large cities (Marseilles, Aix, and Toulon), significant factories (Fos-Berre), a dense road network, and extensive rural area. Both biogenic and anthropogenic emissions are thus significative. Located close to the Mediterranean Sea and framed by the Pyrenees and the Alps Mountains, pollutant concentrations are under the influence of strong emissions as well as a complex meteorology. During the whole summer 2001, the chemistry-transport model CHIMERE was used to forecast pollutant concentrations. The ECMWF forecast meteorological fields were used as forcing, with a raw spatial and temporal resolution of 0.5° and 3 h, respectively. It was observed that even if the synoptic dynamic processes were correctly described, the resolution was not always able to detail small-scale dynamics (sea breezes and orographical winds). To estimate the impact of meteorological forcing on the modeled concentration accuracy, an intercomparison exercise has thus been carried out on the same episode but with two sets of meteorological data: ECMWF data (with horizontal and temporal resolution of 0.5° and 3 h) and data from the mesoscale model RAMS (3 km and 1 h). The two sets of meteorological data are compared and discussed in terms of raw differences as a function of time and location, and in terms of induced discrepancies between the modeled and observed ozone concentration fields. It was shown that even if the RAMS model provides a better description of land-sea breezes and nocturnal boundary layer processes, the simulated ozone time series are satisfactory with the two meteorological forcings. In the context of ozone forecast, the scores are better with ECMWF. This is attributed to the diffusive aspect of these data that will more easily catch localized peaks, while a small error in wind speed or direction in RAMS will misplace the ozone plume.

Performance assessment of retrospective meteorological inputs for use in air quality modeling during TexAQS 2006

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ngan, Fong; Byun, Daewon; Kim, Hyuncheol; Lee, Daegyun; Rappenglück, Bernhard; Pour-Biazar, Arastoo

2012-07-01

To achieve more accurate meteorological inputs than was used in the daily forecast for studying the TexAQS 2006 air quality, retrospective simulations were conducted using objective analysis and 3D/surface analysis nudging with surface and upper observations. Model ozone using the assimilated meteorological fields with improved wind fields shows better agreement with the observation compared to the forecasting results. In the post-frontal conditions, important factors for ozone modeling in terms of wind patterns are the weak easterlies in the morning for bringing in industrial emissions to the city and the subsequent clockwise turning of the wind direction induced by the Coriolis force superimposing the sea breeze, which keeps pollutants in the urban area. Objective analysis and nudging employed in the retrospective simulation minimize the wind bias but are not able to compensate for the general flow pattern biases inherited from large scale inputs. By using an alternative analyses data for initializing the meteorological simulation, the model can re-produce the flow pattern and generate the ozone peak location closer to the reality. The inaccurate simulation of precipitation and cloudiness cause over-prediction of ozone occasionally. Since there are limitations in the meteorological model to simulate precipitation and cloudiness in the fine scale domain (less than 4-km grid), the satellite-based cloud is an alternative way to provide necessary inputs for the retrospective study of air quality.

Simplified methods for real-time prediction of storm surge uncertainty: The city of Venice case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mel, Riccardo; Viero, Daniele Pietro; Carniello, Luca; Defina, Andrea; D'Alpaos, Luigi

2014-09-01

Providing reliable and accurate storm surge forecasts is important for a wide range of problems related to coastal environments. In order to adequately support decision-making processes, it also become increasingly important to be able to estimate the uncertainty associated with the storm surge forecast. The procedure commonly adopted to do this uses the results of a hydrodynamic model forced by a set of different meteorological forecasts; however, this approach requires a considerable, if not prohibitive, computational cost for real-time application. In the present paper we present two simplified methods for estimating the uncertainty affecting storm surge prediction with moderate computational effort. In the first approach we use a computationally fast, statistical tidal model instead of a hydrodynamic numerical model to estimate storm surge uncertainty. The second approach is based on the observation that the uncertainty in the sea level forecast mainly stems from the uncertainty affecting the meteorological fields; this has led to the idea to estimate forecast uncertainty via a linear combination of suitable meteorological variances, directly extracted from the meteorological fields. The proposed methods were applied to estimate the uncertainty in the storm surge forecast in the Venice Lagoon. The results clearly show that the uncertainty estimated through a linear combination of suitable meteorological variances nicely matches the one obtained using the deterministic approach and overcomes some intrinsic limitations in the use of a statistical tidal model.

KSC-08pd1290

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-29

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- At Vandenberg Air Force Base, the OSTM/Jason-2 satellite shipping container is being moved inside the Astrotech processing facility. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Dan Liberotti

KSC-08pd1292

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-29

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- At Vandenberg Air Force Base, the OSTM/Jason-2 satellite shipping container has been moved inside the Astrotech processing facility. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Dan Liberotti

KSC-08pd1064

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-29

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. – The aircraft carrying the OSTM/Jason-2 spacecraft arrives at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Steve Greenberg, JPL

KSC-08pd1284

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-29

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- At Vandenberg Air Force Base, the truck carrying the OSTM/Jason-2 satellite arrives at the Astrotech processing facility. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Dan Liberotti

KSC-08pd1291

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-29

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- At Vandenberg Air Force Base, the OSTM/Jason-2 satellite shipping container is being moved inside the Astrotech processing facility. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Dan Liberotti

KSC-08pd1285

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-29

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- At Vandenberg Air Force Base, the truck carrying the OSTM/Jason-2 satellite arrives at the Astrotech processing facility. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Dan Liberotti

Detecting the causality influence of individual meteorological factors on local PM2.5 concentration in the Jing-Jin-Ji region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Ziyue; Cai, Jun; Gao, Bingbo; Xu, Bing; Dai, Shuang; He, Bin; Xie, Xiaoming

2017-01-01

Due to complicated interactions in the atmospheric environment, quantifying the influence of individual meteorological factors on local PM2.5 concentration remains challenging. The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (short for Jing-Jin-Ji) region is infamous for its serious air pollution. To improve regional air quality, characteristics and meteorological driving forces for PM2.5 concentration should be better understood. This research examined seasonal variations of PM2.5 concentration within the Jing-Jin-Ji region and extracted meteorological factors strongly correlated with local PM2.5 concentration. Following this, a convergent cross mapping (CCM) method was employed to quantify the causality influence of individual meteorological factors on PM2.5 concentration. The results proved that the CCM method was more likely to detect mirage correlations and reveal quantitative influences of individual meteorological factors on PM2.5 concentration. For the Jing-Jin-Ji region, the higher PM2.5 concentration, the stronger influences meteorological factors exert on PM2.5 concentration. Furthermore, this research suggests that individual meteorological factors can influence local PM2.5 concentration indirectly by interacting with other meteorological factors. Due to the significant influence of local meteorology on PM2.5 concentration, more emphasis should be given on employing meteorological means for improving local air quality.

A Sounding-based Severe Weather Tool to Support Daily Operations at Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bauman, William H.; Roeder, William P.

2014-01-01

People and property at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) are at risk when severe weather occurs. Strong winds, hail and tornadoes can injure individuals and cause costly damage to structures if not properly protected. NASA's Launch Services Program and Ground Systems Development and Operations Program and other KSC programs use the daily and weekly severe weather forecasts issued by the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) to determine if they need to limit an activity such as working on gantries, or protect property such as a vehicle on a pad. The 45 WS requested the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) develop a warm season (May-September) severe weather tool for use in the Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (MIDDS) based on the late morning, 1500 UTC (1100 local time), CCAFS (XMR) sounding. The 45 WS frequently makes decisions to issue a severe weather watch and other severe weather warning support products to NASA and the 45th Space Wing in the late morning, after the 1500 UTC sounding. The results of this work indicate that certain stability indices based on the late morning XMR soundings can depict differences between days with reported severe weather and days with no reported severe weather. The AMU determined a frequency of reported severe weather for the stability indices and implemented an operational tool in MIDDS.

Dynamical analysis of extreme precipitation in the US northeast based on large-scale meteorological patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Agel, Laurie; Barlow, Mathew; Colby, Frank; Binder, Hanin; Catto, Jennifer L.; Hoell, Andrew; Cohen, Judah

2018-05-01

Previous work has identified six large-scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs) of dynamic tropopause height associated with extreme precipitation over the Northeast US, with extreme precipitation defined as the top 1% of daily station precipitation. Here, we examine the three-dimensional structure of the tropopause LSMPs in terms of circulation and factors relevant to precipitation, including moisture, stability, and synoptic mechanisms associated with lifting. Within each pattern, the link between the different factors and extreme precipitation is further investigated by comparing the relative strength of the factors between days with and without the occurrence of extreme precipitation. The six tropopause LSMPs include two ridge patterns, two eastern US troughs, and two troughs centered over the Ohio Valley, with a strong seasonality associated with each pattern. Extreme precipitation in the ridge patterns is associated with both convective mechanisms (instability combined with moisture transport from the Great Lakes and Western Atlantic) and synoptic forcing related to Great Lakes storm tracks and embedded shortwaves. Extreme precipitation associated with eastern US troughs involves intense southerly moisture transport and strong quasi-geostrophic forcing of vertical velocity. Ohio Valley troughs are associated with warm fronts and intense warm conveyor belts that deliver large amounts of moisture ahead of storms, but little direct quasi-geostrophic forcing. Factors that show the largest difference between days with and without extreme precipitation include integrated moisture transport, low-level moisture convergence, warm conveyor belts, and quasi-geostrophic forcing, with the relative importance varying between patterns.

Weather impacts on space operations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Madura, J.; Boyd, B.; Bauman, W.; Wyse, N.; Adams, M.

The efforts of the 45th Weather Squadron of the USAF to provide weather support to Patrick Air Force Base, Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Eastern Range, and the Kennedy Space Center are discussed. Its weather support to space vehicles, particularly the Space Shuttle, includes resource protection, ground processing, launch, and Ferry Flight, as well as consultations to the Spaceflight Meteorology Group for landing forecasts. Attention is given to prelaunch processing weather, launch support weather, Shuttle launch commit criteria, and range safety weather restrictions. Upper level wind requirements are examined. The frequency of hourly surface observations with thunderstorms at the Shuttle landing facility, and lightning downtime at the Titan launch complexes are illustrated.

Evaluation of the ORCHIDEE ecosystem model over Africa against 25 years of satellite-based water and carbon measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Traore, Abdoul Khadre; Ciais, Philippe; Vuichard, Nicolas; Poulter, Benjamin; Viovy, Nicolas; Guimberteau, Matthieu; Jung, Martin; Myneni, Ranga; Fisher, Joshua B.

2014-08-01

Few studies have evaluated land surface models for African ecosystems. Here we evaluate the Organizing Carbon and Hydrology in Dynamic Ecosystems (ORCHIDEE) process-based model for the interannual variability (IAV) of the fraction of absorbed active radiation, the gross primary productivity (GPP), soil moisture, and evapotranspiration (ET). Two ORCHIDEE versions are tested, which differ by their soil hydrology parameterization, one with a two-layer simple bucket and the other a more complex 11-layer soil-water diffusion. In addition, we evaluate the sensitivity of climate forcing data, atmospheric CO2, and soil depth. Beside a very generic vegetation parameterization, ORCHIDEE simulates rather well the IAV of GPP and ET (0.5 < r < 0.9 interannual correlation) over Africa except in forestlands. The ORCHIDEE 11-layer version outperforms the two-layer version for simulating IAV of soil moisture, whereas both versions have similar performance of GPP and ET. Effects of CO2 trends, and of variable soil depth on the IAV of GPP, ET, and soil moisture are small, although these drivers influence the trends of these variables. The meteorological forcing data appear to be quite important for faithfully reproducing the IAV of simulated variables, suggesting that in regions with sparse weather station data, the model uncertainty is strongly related to uncertain meteorological forcing. Simulated variables are positively and strongly correlated with precipitation but negatively and weakly correlated with temperature and solar radiation. Model-derived and observation-based sensitivities are in agreement for the driving role of precipitation. However, the modeled GPP is too sensitive to precipitation, suggesting that processes such as increased water use efficiency during drought need to be incorporated in ORCHIDEE.

Effects of temperature on flood forecasting: analysis of an operative case study in Alpine basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ceppi, A.; Ravazzani, G.; Salandin, A.; Rabuffetti, D.; Montani, A.; Borgonovo, E.; Mancini, M.

2013-04-01

In recent years the interest in the forecast and prevention of natural hazards related to hydro-meteorological events has increased the challenge for numerical weather modelling, in particular for limited area models, to improve the quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) for hydrological purposes. After the encouraging results obtained in the MAP D-PHASE Project, we decided to devote further analyses to show recent improvements in the operational use of hydro-meteorological chains, and above all to better investigate the key role played by temperature during snowy precipitation. In this study we present a reanalysis simulation of one meteorological event, which occurred in November 2008 in the Piedmont Region. The attention is focused on the key role of air temperature, which is a crucial feature in determining the partitioning of precipitation in solid and liquid phase, influencing the quantitative discharge forecast (QDF) into the Alpine region. This is linked to the basin ipsographic curve and therefore by the total contributing area related to the snow line of the event. In order to assess hydrological predictions affected by meteorological forcing, a sensitivity analysis of the model output was carried out to evaluate different simulation scenarios, considering the forecast effects which can radically modify the discharge forecast. Results show how in real-time systems hydrological forecasters have to consider also the temperature uncertainty in forecasts in order to better understand the snow dynamics and its effect on runoff during a meteorological warning with a crucial snow line over the basin. The hydrological ensemble forecasts are based on the 16 members of the meteorological ensemble system COSMO-LEPS (developed by ARPA-SIMC) based on the non-hydrostatic model COSMO, while the hydrological model used to generate the runoff simulations is the rainfall-runoff distributed FEST-WB model, developed at Politecnico di Milano.

Evaluation and uncertainty analysis of regional-scale CLM4.5 net carbon flux estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Post, Hanna; Hendricks Franssen, Harrie-Jan; Han, Xujun; Baatz, Roland; Montzka, Carsten; Schmidt, Marius; Vereecken, Harry

2018-01-01

Modeling net ecosystem exchange (NEE) at the regional scale with land surface models (LSMs) is relevant for the estimation of regional carbon balances, but studies on it are very limited. Furthermore, it is essential to better understand and quantify the uncertainty of LSMs in order to improve them. An important key variable in this respect is the prognostic leaf area index (LAI), which is very sensitive to forcing data and strongly affects the modeled NEE. We applied the Community Land Model (CLM4.5-BGC) to the Rur catchment in western Germany and compared estimated and default ecological key parameters for modeling carbon fluxes and LAI. The parameter estimates were previously estimated with the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach DREAM(zs) for four of the most widespread plant functional types in the catchment. It was found that the catchment-scale annual NEE was strongly positive with default parameter values but negative (and closer to observations) with the estimated values. Thus, the estimation of CLM parameters with local NEE observations can be highly relevant when determining regional carbon balances. To obtain a more comprehensive picture of model uncertainty, CLM ensembles were set up with perturbed meteorological input and uncertain initial states in addition to uncertain parameters. C3 grass and C3 crops were particularly sensitive to the perturbed meteorological input, which resulted in a strong increase in the standard deviation of the annual NEE sum (σ ∑ NEE) for the different ensemble members from ˜ 2 to 3 g C m-2 yr-1 (with uncertain parameters) to ˜ 45 g C m-2 yr-1 (C3 grass) and ˜ 75 g C m-2 yr-1 (C3 crops) with perturbed forcings. This increase in uncertainty is related to the impact of the meteorological forcings on leaf onset and senescence, and enhanced/reduced drought stress related to perturbation of precipitation. The NEE uncertainty for the forest plant functional type (PFT) was considerably lower (σ ∑ NEE ˜ 4.0-13.5 g C m-2 yr-1 with perturbed parameters, meteorological forcings and initial states). We conclude that LAI and NEE uncertainty with CLM is clearly underestimated if uncertain meteorological forcings and initial states are not taken into account.

Applied Meteorology Unit - Operational Contributions to Spaceport Canaveral

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bauman, William H., III; Roeder, William P.; Lafosse, Richard A.; Sharp, David W.; Merceret, Francis J.

2004-01-01

The Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) provides technology development, evaluation and transition services to improve operational weather support to the Space Shuttle and the National Space Program. It is established under a Memorandum of Understanding among NASA, the Air Force and the National .Weather Service (NWS). The AMU is funded and managed by NASA and operated by ENSCO, Inc. through a competitively awarded NASA contract. The primary customers are the 45th Weather Squadron (45WS) at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS), FL; the Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) at Johnson Space Center (JSC) in Houston, TX; and the NWS office in Melbourne, FL (NWS MLB). This paper will briefly review the AMU's history and describe the three processes through which its work is assigned. Since its inception in 1991 the AMU has completed 72 projects, all of which are listed at the end of this paper. At least one project that highlights each of the three tasking processes will be briefly reviewed. Some of the projects that have been especially beneficial to the space program will also be discussed in more detail, as will projects that developed significant new techniques or science in applied meteorology.

Sensitivity of Hydrologic Extremes to Spatial Resolution of Meteorological Forcings: A Case Study of the Conterminous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kao, S. C.; Naz, B. S.; Gangrade, S.; Ashfaq, M.; Rastogi, D.

2016-12-01

The magnitude and frequency of hydroclimate extremes are projected to increase in the conterminous United States (CONUS) with significant implications for future water resource planning and flood risk management. Nevertheless, apart from the change of natural environment, the choice of model spatial resolution could also artificially influence the features of simulated extremes. To better understand how the spatial resolution of meteorological forcings may affect hydroclimate projections, we test the runoff sensitivity using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model that was calibrated for each CONUS 8-digit hydrologic unit (HUC8) at 1/24° ( 4km) grid resolution. The 1980-2012 gridded Daymet and PRISM meteorological observations are used to conduct the 1/24° resolution control simulation. Comparative simulations are achieved by smoothing the 1/24° forcing into 1/12° and 1/8° resolutions which are then used to drive the VIC model for the CONUS. In addition, we also test how the simulated high and low runoff conditions would react to change in precipitation (±10%) and temperature (+1°C). The results are further analyzed for various types of hydroclimate extremes across different watersheds in the CONUS. This work helps us understand the sensitivity of simulated runoff to different spatial resolutions of climate forcings and also its sensitivity to different watershed sizes and characteristics of extreme events in the future climate conditions.

Recent Weather Technologies Delivered to America's Space Program by the Applied Meteorology Unit

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bauman, WIlliam, H., III; Crawford, Winifred

2009-01-01

The Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) is a unique joint venture of NASA, the Air Force and the National Weather Service (NWS) and has been supporting the Space Program for nearly two decades. The AMU acts as a bridge between the meteorological research community and operational forecasters by developing, evaluating and transitioning new technology and techniques to improve weather support to spaceport operations at the Eastern Range (ER) and Kennedy Space Center. Its primary customers are the 45th Weather Squadron at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS), the Spaceflight Meteorology Group at Johnson Space Center and the National Weather Service Office in Melbourne, FL. Its products are used to support NASA's Shuttle and ELV programs as well as Department of Defense and commercial launches from the ER. Shuttle support includes landing sites beyond the ER. The AMU is co-located with the Air Force operational forecasters at CCAFS to facilitate continuous two-way interaction between the AMU and its operational customers. It is operated under a NASA, Air Force, and NWS Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) by a competitively-selected contractor. The contract, which is funded and managed by NASA, provides five full time professionals with degrees in meteorology or related fields, some of whom also have operational experience. NASA provides a Ph.D.- level NASA civil service scientist as Chief of the AMU. The AMU is tasked by its customers through a unique, nationally recognized process. The tasks are limited to development, evaluation and operational transition of technology to improve weather support to spaceport operations and providing expert advice to the customers. The MOU expressly forbids using the AMU resources to conduct operations or do basic research. The presentation will provide a brief overview of the AMU and how it is tasked by its customers to provide high priority products and services. The balance of the presentation will cover a sampling of products delivered over the last 18 years that are currently in operational use. Each example will describe the problem to be solved, the solution provided, and the operational benefits of implementing that solution.

KSC-08pd1296

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-30

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- Inside the Astrotech processing facility at Vandenberg Air Force Base, the shipping container is removed from the OSTM/Jason-2 spacecraft. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Mark Mackley

KSC-08pd1299

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-30

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- A closeup of the OSTM/Jason-2 spacecraft after removal of the shipping container in the Astrotech processing facility at Vandenberg Air Force Base. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Mark Mackley

KSC-08pd1307

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-30

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- Inside the Astrotech processing facility at Vandenberg Air Force Base, a technician oversees the attaching of the OSTM/Jason-2 spacecraft to a tilt dolly. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Mark Mackley

KSC-08pd1066

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-29

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. – The shipping container with the OSTM/Jason-2 spacecraft inside is offloaded from the aircraft at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Steve Greenberg, JPL

KSC-08pd1283

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-29

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- At Vandenberg Air Force Base, the truck carrying the OSTM/Jason-2 satellite is ready to transport the cargo to the Astrotech processing facility. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Dan Liberotti

KSC-08pd1298

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-30

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- Another view of the OSTM/Jason-2 spacecraft after removal of the shipping container in the Astrotech processing facility at Vandenberg Air Force Base. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Mark Mackley

KSC-08pd1308

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-30

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- Inside the Astrotech processing facility at Vandenberg Air Force Base, technicians examine the attachment of the OSTM/Jason-2 spacecraft to a tilt dolly. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Mark Mackley

KSC-08pd1065

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-29

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. – The aircraft carrying the OSTM/Jason-2 spacecraft taxis past the Astrotech processing facility at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Stephen Greenberg, JPL

KSC-08pd1305

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-30

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- Inside the Astrotech processing facility at Vandenberg Air Force Base, the OSTM/Jason-2 spacecraft is lifted from its stand to be moved to a tilt dolly. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Mark Mackley

KSC-08pd1304

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-30

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- Inside the Astrotech processing facility at Vandenberg Air Force Base, technicians check the OSTM/Jason-2 spacecraft before it is moved to a tilt dolly. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Mark Mackley

KSC-08pd1297

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-30

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- Inside the Astrotech processing facility at Vandenberg Air Force Base, the OSTM/Jason-2 spacecraft is revealed after removal of the shipping container. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Mark Mackley

KSC-08pd1289

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-29

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- In front of the Astrotech processing facility at Vandenberg Air Force Base, the OSTM/Jason-2 satellite shipping container is on the ground, ready to be moved inside. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Dan Liberotti

KSC-08pd1295

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-30

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- Inside the Astrotech processing facility at Vandenberg Air Force Base, the shipping container is removed from the OSTM/Jason-2 spacecraft. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Mark Mackley

KSC-08pd1067

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-29

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. – The shipping container with the OSTM/Jason-2 spacecraft inside is offloaded from the aircraft at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Steve Greenberg, JPL

KSC-08pd1280

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-29

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- The shipping container with the OSTM/Jason-2 spacecraft inside is offloaded from the aircraft at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Dan Liberotti

KSC-08pd1310

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-30

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- Inside the Astrotech processing facility at Vandenberg Air Force Base, the OSTM/Jason-2 spacecraft is lifted to a vertical position on the tilt dolly. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Mark Mackley

KSC-08pd1309

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-30

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- Inside the Astrotech processing facility at Vandenberg Air Force Base, the OSTM/Jason-2 spacecraft is lifted to a near-45-degree angle on the tilt dolly. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Mark Mackley

KSC-08pd1311

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-30

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- Inside the Astrotech processing facility at Vandenberg Air Force Base, the OSTM/Jason-2 spacecraft has been lifted to a vertical position on the tilt dolly. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Mark Mackley

KSC-08pd1293

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-30

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- Inside the Astrotech processing facility at Vandenberg Air Force Base, an overhead crane is moved over the OSTM/Jason-2 spacecraft to lift off the shipping container. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Mark Mackley

KSC-08pd1288

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-29

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- In front of the Astrotech processing facility at Vandenberg Air Force Base, a forklift has removed the OSTM/Jason-2 satellite shipping container off the flatbed truck. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Dan Liberotti

KSC-08pd1294

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-30

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- Inside the Astrotech processing facility at Vandenberg Air Force Base, an overhead crane is attached to the OSTM/Jason-2 spacecraft shipping container to remove it. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Mark Mackley

KSC-08pd1303

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-30

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- Inside the Astrotech processing facility at Vandenberg Air Force Base, a technician (right) checks the OSTM/Jason-2 spacecraft before it is moved to a tilt dolly. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Mark Mackley

KSC-08pd1306

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-30

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- Inside the Astrotech processing facility at Vandenberg Air Force Base, the OSTM/Jason-2 spacecraft is moved to a tilt dolly. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Mark Mackley

KSC-08pd1287

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-29

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- In front of the Astrotech processing facility at Vandenberg Air Force Base, a forklift begins to lift the OSTM/Jason-2 satellite shipping container off the flatbed truck. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Dan Liberotti

KSC-08pd1279

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-29

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- The shipping container with the OSTM/Jason-2 spacecraft inside is offloaded from the aircraft at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Dan Liberotti

Meteorologic, oceanographic, and geomorphic controls on circulation and residence time in a coral reef-lined embayment: Faga'alu Bay, American Samoa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Storlazzi, C. D.; Cheriton, O. M.; Messina, A. M.; Biggs, T. W.

2018-06-01

Water circulation over coral reefs can determine the degree to which reef organisms are exposed to the overlying waters, so understanding circulation is necessary to interpret spatial patterns in coral health. Because coral reefs often have high geomorphic complexity, circulation patterns and the duration of exposure, or "local residence time" of a water parcel, can vary substantially over small distances. Different meteorologic and oceanographic forcings can further alter residence time patterns over reefs. Here, spatially dense Lagrangian surface current drifters and Eulerian current meters were used to characterize circulation patterns and resulting residence times over different regions of the reefs in Faga'alu Bay, American Samoa, during three distinct forcing periods: calm, strong winds, and large waves. Residence times varied among different geomorphic zones of the reef and were reflected in the spatially varying health of the corals across the embayment. The relatively healthy, seaward fringing reef consistently had the shortest residence times, as it was continually flushed by wave breaking at the reef crest, whereas the degraded, sheltered, leeward fringing reef consistently had the longest residence times, suggesting this area is more exposed to land-based sources of pollution. Strong wind forcing resulted in the longest residence times by pinning the water in the bay, whereas large wave forcing flushed the bay and resulted in the shortest residence times. The effect of these different forcings on residence times was fairly consistent across all reef geomorphic zones, with the shift from wind to wave forcing shortening mean residence times by approximately 50%. Although ecologically significant to the coral organisms in the nearshore reef zones, these shortened residence times were still 2-3 times longer than those associated with the seaward fringing reef across all forcing conditions, demonstrating how the geomorphology of a reef environment sets a first-order control on reef health.

An assessment of a North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) based global drought early warning forecast system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wood, E. F.; Yuan, X.; Sheffield, J.; Pan, M.; Roundy, J.

2013-12-01

One of the key recommendations of the WCRP Global Drought Information System (GDIS) workshop is to develop an experimental real-time global monitoring and prediction system. While great advances has been made in global drought monitoring based on satellite observations and model reanalysis data, global drought forecasting has been stranded in part due to the limited skill both in climate forecast models and global hydrologic predictions. Having been working on drought monitoring and forecasting over USA for more than a decade, the Princeton land surface hydrology group is now developing an experimental global drought early warning system that is based on multiple climate forecast models and a calibrated global hydrologic model. In this presentation, we will test its capability in seasonal forecasting of meteorological, agricultural and hydrologic droughts over global major river basins, using precipitation, soil moisture and streamflow forecasts respectively. Based on the joint probability distribution between observations using Princeton's global drought monitoring system and model hindcasts and real-time forecasts from North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) project, we (i) bias correct the monthly precipitation and temperature forecasts from multiple climate forecast models, (ii) downscale them to a daily time scale, and (iii) use them to drive the calibrated VIC model to produce global drought forecasts at a 1-degree resolution. A parallel run using the ESP forecast method, which is based on resampling historical forcings, is also carried out for comparison. Analysis is being conducted over global major river basins, with multiple drought indices that have different time scales and characteristics. The meteorological drought forecast does not have uncertainty from hydrologic models and can be validated directly against observations - making the validation an 'apples-to-apples' comparison. Preliminary results for the evaluation of meteorological drought onset hindcasts indicate that climate models increase drought detectability over ESP by 31%-81%. However, less than 30% of the global drought onsets can be detected by climate models. The missed drought events are associated with weak ENSO signals and lower potential predictability. Due to the high false alarms from climate models, the reliability is more important than sharpness for a skillful probabilistic drought onset forecast. Validations and skill assessments for agricultural and hydrologic drought forecasts are carried out using soil moisture and streamflow output from the VIC land surface model (LSM) forced by a global forcing data set. Given our previous drought forecasting experiences over USA and Africa, validating the hydrologic drought forecasting is a significant challenge for a global drought early warning system.

The Applied Meteorology Unit: Nineteen Years Successfully Transitioning Research Into Operations for America's Space Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Madura, John T.; Bauman, William H., III; Merceret, Francis J.; Roeder, William P.; Brody, Frank C.; Hagemeyer, Bartlett C.

2011-01-01

The Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) provides technology development and transition services to improve operational weather support to America's space program . The AMU was founded in 1991 and operates under a triagency Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the United States Air Force (USAF) and the National Weather Service (NWS) (Ernst and Merceret, 1995). It is colocated with the 45th Weather Squadron (45WS) at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) and funded by the Space Shuttle Program . Its primary customers are the 45WS, the Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) operated for NASA by the NWS at the Johnson Space Center (JSC) in Houston, TX, and the NWS forecast office in Melbourne, FL (MLB). The gap between research and operations is well known. All too frequently, the process of transitioning research to operations fails for various reasons. The mission of the AMU is in essence to bridge this gap for America's space program.

Propagation of hydro-meteorological uncertainty in a model cascade framework to inundation prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodríguez-Rincón, J. P.; Pedrozo-Acuña, A.; Breña-Naranjo, J. A.

2015-07-01

This investigation aims to study the propagation of meteorological uncertainty within a cascade modelling approach to flood prediction. The methodology was comprised of a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model, a distributed rainfall-runoff model and a 2-D hydrodynamic model. The uncertainty evaluation was carried out at the meteorological and hydrological levels of the model chain, which enabled the investigation of how errors that originated in the rainfall prediction interact at a catchment level and propagate to an estimated inundation area and depth. For this, a hindcast scenario is utilised removing non-behavioural ensemble members at each stage, based on the fit with observed data. At the hydrodynamic level, an uncertainty assessment was not incorporated; instead, the model was setup following guidelines for the best possible representation of the case study. The selected extreme event corresponds to a flood that took place in the southeast of Mexico during November 2009, for which field data (e.g. rain gauges; discharge) and satellite imagery were available. Uncertainty in the meteorological model was estimated by means of a multi-physics ensemble technique, which is designed to represent errors from our limited knowledge of the processes generating precipitation. In the hydrological model, a multi-response validation was implemented through the definition of six sets of plausible parameters from past flood events. Precipitation fields from the meteorological model were employed as input in a distributed hydrological model, and resulting flood hydrographs were used as forcing conditions in the 2-D hydrodynamic model. The evolution of skill within the model cascade shows a complex aggregation of errors between models, suggesting that in valley-filling events hydro-meteorological uncertainty has a larger effect on inundation depths than that observed in estimated flood inundation extents.

Transport and radiative impacts of atmospheric pollen using online, observation-based emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wozniak, M. C.; Steiner, A. L.; Solmon, F.; Li, Y.

2015-12-01

Atmospheric pollen emitted from trees and grasses exhibits both a high temporal variability and a highly localized spatial distribution that has been difficult to quantify in the atmosphere. Pollen's radiative impact is also not quantified because it is neglected in climate modeling studies. Here we couple an online, meteorological active pollen emissions model guided by observations of airborne pollen to understand the role of pollen in the atmosphere. We use existing pollen counts from 2003-2008 across the continental U.S. in conjunction with a tree database and historical meteorological data to create an observation-based phenological model that produces accurately scaled and timed emissions. These emissions are emitted and transported within the regional climate model (RegCM4) and the direct radiative effect is calculated. Additionally, we simulate the rupture of coarse pollen grains into finer particles by adding a second size mode for pollen emissions, which contributes to the shortwave radiative forcing and also has an indirect effect on climate.

Upper Atmospheric Response to the April 2010 Storm as Observed by GOCE, CHAMP, and GRACE and Modeled by TIME-GCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hagan, Maura; Häusler, Kathrin; Lu, Gang; Forbes, Jeffrey; Zhang, Xiaoli; Doornbos, Eelco; Bruinsma, Sean

2014-05-01

We present the results of an investigation of the upper atmosphere during April 2010 when it was disturbed by a fast-moving coronal mass ejection. Our study is based on comparative analysis of observations made by the Gravity field and steady-state Ocean Circulation Explorer (GOCE), Challenging Minisatellite Payload (CHAMP), and Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites and a set of simulations with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) thermosphere-ionosphere-mesosphere-electrodynamics general circulation model (TIME-GCM). We compare and contrast the satellite observations with TIME-GCM results from a realistic simulation based on prevailing meteorological and solar geomagnetic conditions. We diagnose the comparative importance of the upper atmospheric signatures attributable to meteorological forcing with those attributable to storm effects by diagnosing a series of complementary control TIME-GCM simulations. These results also quantify the extent to which lower and middle atmospheric sources of upper atmospheric variability precondition its response to the solar geomagnetic storm.

Environmental Assessment for the Military Housing Privatization Initiative (MHPI) Malmstrom Air Force Base, Montana

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-08-01

type and amount of pollutants emitted into the atmosphere, the size and topography of the air basin , and the prevailing meteorological conditions...Upper Missouri Dearborn Rivers Sub- Basin , Sub-Unit 686 (BAH, 2008). 3.2.1.2 Surface Water MAFB lies on a plateau roughly 10 square miles in...Rivers Sub- Basin (Hydrologic Unit Code 10030102) (BAH, 2008). The watershed drainage area is approximately 6,930 acres, of which approximately 3,052

KSC-08pd1316

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-25

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- At Vandenberg Air Force Base in California, the Delta II first stage for the OSTM/Jason-2 spacecraft arrives at the base of the mobile service tower on Space Launch Complex 2. The first stage will be raised to vertical and lifted into the tower. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Dan Liberotti

Severe Weather Tool using 1500 UTC Cape Canaveral Air Force Station Soundings

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bauman, William H., III

2013-01-01

People and property at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) are at risk when severe weather occurs. Strong winds, hail and tornadoes can injure individuals and cause costly damage to structures if not properly protected. NASA's Launch Services Program and Ground Systems Development and Operations Program and other KSC programs use the daily and weekly severe weather forecasts issued by the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) to determine if they need to limit an activity such as working on gantries, or protect property such as a vehicle on a pad. The 45 WS requested the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) develop a warm season (May-September) severe weather tool for use in the Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (MIDDS) based on the late morning, 1500 UTC (1100 local time), CCAFS (XMR) sounding. The 45 WS frequently makes decisions to issue a severe weather watch and other severe weather warning support products to NASA and the 45th Space Wing in the late morning, after the 1500 UTC sounding. The results of this work indicate that certain stability indices based on the late morning XMR soundings can depict differences between days with reported severe weather and days with no reported severe weather. The AMU determined a frequency of reported severe weather for the stability indices and implemented an operational tool in MIDDS.

Development and evaluation of climatologically-downscaled AFWA AGRMET precipitation products over the continental U.S.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia, M.; Peters-Lidard, C. D.; Eylander, J. B.; Daly, C.; Gibson, W.; Tian, Y.; Zeng, J.; Kato, H.

2008-05-01

Collaborations between the Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA), the Hydrological Sciences Branch at NASA-GSFC, and the PRISM Group at Oregon State University have led to improvements in the processing of meteorological forcing inputs for the NASA-GSFC Land Information System (LIS; Kumar et al. 2006), a sophisticated framework for LSM operation and model coupling experiments. Efforts at AFWA toward the production of surface hydrometeorological products are currently in transition from the legacy Agricultural Meteorology modeling system (AGRMET) to use of the LIS framework and procedures. Recent enhancements to meteorological input processing for application to land surface models in LIS include the assimilation of climate-based information for the spatial interpolation and downscaling of precipitation fields. Climatological information included in the LIS- based downscaling procedure for North America is provided by a monthly high-resolution PRISM (Daly et al. 1994, 2002; Daly 2006) dataset based on a 30-year analysis period. The combination of these sources and methods attempts to address the strengths and weaknesses of available legacy products, objective interpolation methods, and the PRISM knowledge-based methodology. All of these efforts are oriented on an operational need for timely estimation of spatial precipitation fields at adequate spatial resolution for customer dissemination and near-real-time simulations in regions of interest. This work focuses on value added to the AGRMET precipitation product by the inclusion of high-quality climatological information on a monthly time scale. The AGRMET method uses microwave-based satellite precipitation estimates from various polar-orbiting platforms (NOAA POES and DMSP), infrared-based estimates from geostationary platforms (GOES, METEOSAT, etc.), related cloud analysis products, and surface gauge observations in a complex and hierarchical blending process. Results from processing of the legacy AGRMET precipitation products over the U.S. using LIS-based methods for downscaling, both with and without climatological factors, are evaluated against high-resolution monthly analyses using the PRISM knowledge- based method (Daly et al. 2002) over a 4-year period. It is demonstrated that the incorporation of climatological information in a downscaling procedure can significantly enhance the accuracy, and potential utility, of AFWA precipitation products for customer applications, especially over mountainous terrain as in the western U.S.

Does a more skilful meteorological input lead to a more skilful flood forecast at seasonal timescales?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neumann, Jessica; Arnal, Louise; Magnusson, Linus; Cloke, Hannah

2017-04-01

Seasonal river flow forecasts are important for many aspects of the water sector including flood forecasting, water supply, hydropower generation and navigation. In addition to short term predictions, seasonal forecasts have the potential to realise higher benefits through more optimal and consistent decisions. Their operational use however, remains a challenge due to uncertainties posed by the initial hydrologic conditions (e.g. soil moisture, groundwater levels) and seasonal climate forcings (mainly forecasts of precipitation and temperature), leading to a decrease in skill with increasing lead times. Here we present a stakeholder-led case study for the Thames catchment (UK), currently being undertaken as part of the H2020 IMPREX project. The winter of 2013-14 was the wettest on record in the UK; driven by 12 major Atlantic depressions, the Thames catchment was subject to compound (concurrent) flooding from fluvial and groundwater sources. Focusing on the 2013-14 floods, this study aims to see whether increased skill in meteorological input translates through to more accurate forecasting of compound flood events at seasonal timescales in the Thames catchment. An earlier analysis of the ECMWF System 4 (S4) seasonal meteorological forecasts revealed that it did not skilfully forecast the extreme event of winter 2013-14. This motivated the implementation of an atmospheric experiment by the ECMWF to force the S4 to more accurately represent the low-pressure weather conditions prevailing in winter 2013-14 [1]. Here, we used both the standard and the "improved" S4 seasonal meteorological forecasts to force the EFAS (European Flood Awareness System) LISFLOOD hydrological model. Both hydrological forecasts were started on the 1st of November 2013 and run for 4 months of lead time to capture the peak of the 2013-14 flood event. Comparing the seasonal hydrological forecasts produced with both meteorological forcing data will enable us to assess how the improved meteorology translates into skill in the hydrological forecast for this extreme compound event. As primary stakeholders involved in the study, the Environment Agency and Flood Forecasting Centre are responsible for managing flood risk in the UK. For them, the detection of a potential flood signal weeks or months in advance could be of great value in terms of operational practice, decision-making and early warning. [1] Rodwell, M.J., Ferranti, L., Magnusson, L., Weisheimer, A., Rabier, F. & Richardson, D. (2015) Diagnosis of northern hemispheric regime behaviour during winter 2013/14. ECMWF Technical Memoranda 769.

Final Report for High Latitude Climate Modeling: ARM Takes Us Beyond Case Studies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Russell, Lynn M; Lubin, Dan

2013-06-18

The main thrust of this project was to devise a method by which the majority of North Slope of Alaska (NSA) meteorological and radiometric data, collected on a daily basis, could be used to evaluate and improve global climate model (GCM) simulations and their parameterizations, particularly for cloud microphysics. Although the standard ARM Program sensors for a less complete suite of instruments for cloud and aerosol studies than the instruments on an intensive field program such as the 2008 Indirect and Semi-Direct Aerosol Campaign (ISDAC), the advantage they offer lies in the long time base and large volume of datamore » that covers a wide range of meteorological and climatological conditions. The challenge has been devising a method to interpret the NSA data in a practical way, so that a wide variety of meteorological conditions in all seasons can be examined with climate models. If successful, climate modelers would have a robust alternative to the usual “case study” approach (i.e., from intensive field programs only) for testing and evaluating their parameterizations’ performance. Understanding climate change on regional scales requires a broad scientific consideration of anthropogenic influences that goes beyond greenhouse gas emissions to also include aerosol-induced changes in cloud properties. For instance, it is now clear that on small scales, human-induced aerosol plumes can exert microclimatic radiative and hydrologic forcing that rivals that of greenhouse gas–forced warming. This project has made significant scientific progress by investigating what causes successive versions of climate models continue to exhibit errors in cloud amount, cloud microphysical and radiative properties, precipitation, and radiation balance, as compared with observations and, in particular, in Arctic regions. To find out what is going wrong, we have tested the models' cloud representation over the full range of meteorological conditions found in the Arctic using the ARM North Slope of Alaska (NSA) data.« less

Merging Station Observations with Large-Scale Gridded Data to Improve Hydrological Predictions over Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peng, L.; Sheffield, J.; Verbist, K. M. J.

2016-12-01

Hydrological predictions at regional-to-global scales are often hampered by the lack of meteorological forcing data. The use of large-scale gridded meteorological data is able to overcome this limitation, but these data are subject to regional biases and unrealistic values at local scale. This is especially challenging in regions such as Chile, where climate exhibits high spatial heterogeneity as a result of long latitude span and dramatic elevation changes. However, regional station-based observational datasets are not fully exploited and have the potential of constraining biases and spatial patterns. This study aims at adjusting precipitation and temperature estimates from the Princeton University global meteorological forcing (PGF) gridded dataset to improve hydrological simulations over Chile, by assimilating 982 gauges from the Dirección General de Aguas (DGA). To merge station data with the gridded dataset, we use a state-space estimation method to produce optimal gridded estimates, considering both the error of the station measurements and the gridded PGF product. The PGF daily precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature at 0.25° spatial resolution are adjusted for the period of 1979-2010. Precipitation and temperature gauges with long and continuous records (>70% temporal coverage) are selected, while the remaining stations are used for validation. The leave-one-out cross validation verifies the robustness of this data assimilation approach. The merged dataset is then used to force the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrological model over Chile at daily time step which are compared to the observations of streamflow. Our initial results show that the station-merged PGF precipitation effectively captures drizzle and the spatial pattern of storms. Overall the merged dataset has significant improvements compared to the original PGF with reduced biases and stronger inter-annual variability. The invariant spatial pattern of errors between the station data and the gridded product opens up the possibility of merging real-time satellite and intermittent gauge observations to produce more accurate real-time hydrological predictions.

The Air Force Interactive Meteorological System: A Research Tool for Satellite Meteorology

DTIC Science & Technology

1992-12-02

NFARnet itself is a subnet to the global computer network INTERNET that links nearly all U.S. government research facilities and universi- ties along...required input to a generalized mathematical solution to the satellite/earth coordinate transform used for earth location of GOES sensor data. A direct...capability also exists to convert absolute coordinates to relative coordinates for transformations associated with gridded fields. 3. Spatial objective

Verification of Meteorological and Oceanographic Ensemble Forecasts in the U.S. Navy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klotz, S.; Hansen, J.; Pauley, P.; Sestak, M.; Wittmann, P.; Skupniewicz, C.; Nelson, G.

2013-12-01

The Navy Ensemble Forecast Verification System (NEFVS) has been promoted recently to operational status at the U.S. Navy's Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC). NEFVS processes FNMOC and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) meteorological and ocean wave ensemble forecasts, gridded forecast analyses, and innovation (observational) data output by FNMOC's data assimilation system. The NEFVS framework consists of statistical analysis routines, a variety of pre- and post-processing scripts to manage data and plot verification metrics, and a master script to control application workflow. NEFVS computes metrics that include forecast bias, mean-squared error, conditional error, conditional rank probability score, and Brier score. The system also generates reliability and Receiver Operating Characteristic diagrams. In this presentation we describe the operational framework of NEFVS and show examples of verification products computed from ensemble forecasts, meteorological observations, and forecast analyses. The construction and deployment of NEFVS addresses important operational and scientific requirements within Navy Meteorology and Oceanography. These include computational capabilities for assessing the reliability and accuracy of meteorological and ocean wave forecasts in an operational environment, for quantifying effects of changes and potential improvements to the Navy's forecast models, and for comparing the skill of forecasts from different forecast systems. NEFVS also supports the Navy's collaboration with the U.S. Air Force, NCEP, and Environment Canada in the North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) project and with the Air Force and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in the National Unified Operational Prediction Capability (NUOPC) program. This program is tasked with eliminating unnecessary duplication within the three agencies, accelerating the transition of new technology, such as multi-model ensemble forecasting, to U.S. Department of Defense use, and creating a superior U.S. global meteorological and oceanographic prediction capability. Forecast verification is an important component of NAEFS and NUOPC. Distribution Statement A: Approved for Public Release; distribution is unlimited

Verification of Meteorological and Oceanographic Ensemble Forecasts in the U.S. Navy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klotz, S. P.; Hansen, J.; Pauley, P.; Sestak, M.; Wittmann, P.; Skupniewicz, C.; Nelson, G.

2012-12-01

The Navy Ensemble Forecast Verification System (NEFVS) has been promoted recently to operational status at the U.S. Navy's Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC). NEFVS processes FNMOC and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) meteorological and ocean wave ensemble forecasts, gridded forecast analyses, and innovation (observational) data output by FNMOC's data assimilation system. The NEFVS framework consists of statistical analysis routines, a variety of pre- and post-processing scripts to manage data and plot verification metrics, and a master script to control application workflow. NEFVS computes metrics that include forecast bias, mean-squared error, conditional error, conditional rank probability score, and Brier score. The system also generates reliability and Receiver Operating Characteristic diagrams. In this presentation we describe the operational framework of NEFVS and show examples of verification products computed from ensemble forecasts, meteorological observations, and forecast analyses. The construction and deployment of NEFVS addresses important operational and scientific requirements within Navy Meteorology and Oceanography (METOC). These include computational capabilities for assessing the reliability and accuracy of meteorological and ocean wave forecasts in an operational environment, for quantifying effects of changes and potential improvements to the Navy's forecast models, and for comparing the skill of forecasts from different forecast systems. NEFVS also supports the Navy's collaboration with the U.S. Air Force, NCEP, and Environment Canada in the North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) project and with the Air Force and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in the National Unified Operational Prediction Capability (NUOPC) program. This program is tasked with eliminating unnecessary duplication within the three agencies, accelerating the transition of new technology, such as multi-model ensemble forecasting, to U.S. Department of Defense use, and creating a superior U.S. global meteorological and oceanographic prediction capability. Forecast verification is an important component of NAEFS and NUOPC.

Exploring the impact of forcing error characteristics on physically based snow simulations within a global sensitivity analysis framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raleigh, M. S.; Lundquist, J. D.; Clark, M. P.

2015-07-01

Physically based models provide insights into key hydrologic processes but are associated with uncertainties due to deficiencies in forcing data, model parameters, and model structure. Forcing uncertainty is enhanced in snow-affected catchments, where weather stations are scarce and prone to measurement errors, and meteorological variables exhibit high variability. Hence, there is limited understanding of how forcing error characteristics affect simulations of cold region hydrology and which error characteristics are most important. Here we employ global sensitivity analysis to explore how (1) different error types (i.e., bias, random errors), (2) different error probability distributions, and (3) different error magnitudes influence physically based simulations of four snow variables (snow water equivalent, ablation rates, snow disappearance, and sublimation). We use the Sobol' global sensitivity analysis, which is typically used for model parameters but adapted here for testing model sensitivity to coexisting errors in all forcings. We quantify the Utah Energy Balance model's sensitivity to forcing errors with 1 840 000 Monte Carlo simulations across four sites and five different scenarios. Model outputs were (1) consistently more sensitive to forcing biases than random errors, (2) generally less sensitive to forcing error distributions, and (3) critically sensitive to different forcings depending on the relative magnitude of errors. For typical error magnitudes found in areas with drifting snow, precipitation bias was the most important factor for snow water equivalent, ablation rates, and snow disappearance timing, but other forcings had a more dominant impact when precipitation uncertainty was due solely to gauge undercatch. Additionally, the relative importance of forcing errors depended on the model output of interest. Sensitivity analysis can reveal which forcing error characteristics matter most for hydrologic modeling.

Preliminary validation of WRF model in two Arctic fjords, Hornsund and Porsanger

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aniskiewicz, Paulina; Stramska, Małgorzata

2017-04-01

Our research is focused on development of efficient modeling system for arctic fjords. This tool should include high-resolution meteorological data derived using downscaling approach. In this presentation we have focused on modeling, with high spatial resolution, of the meteorological conditions in two Arctic fjords: Hornsund (H), located in the western part of Svalbard archipelago and Porsanger (P) located in the coastal waters of the Barents Sea. The atmospheric downscaling is based on The Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF, www.wrf-model.org) with polar stereographic projection. We have created two parent domains with grid point distances of about 3.2 km (P) and 3.0 km (H) and with nested domains (almost 5 times higher resolution than parent domains). We tested what is the impact of the spatial resolution of the model on derived meteorological quantities. For both fjords the input topography data resolution is 30 sec. To validate the results we have used meteorological data from the Norwegian Meteorological Institute for stations Lakselv (L) and Honningsvåg (Ho) located in the inner and outer parts of the Porsanger fjord as well as from station in the outer part of the Hornsund fjord. We have estimated coefficients of determination (r2), statistical errors (St) and systematic errors (Sy) between measured and modelled air temperature and wind speed at each station. This approach will allow us to create high resolution spatially variable meteorological fields that will serve as forcing for numerical models of the fjords. We will investigate the role of different meteorological quantities (e. g. wind, solar insolation, precipitation) on hydrohraphic processes in fjords. The project has been financed from the funds of the Leading National Research Centre (KNOW) received by the Centre for Polar Studies for the period 2014-2018. This work was also funded by the Norway Grants (NCBR contract No. 201985, project NORDFLUX). Partial support comes from the Institute of Oceanology (IO PAN).

KSC-08pd1312

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-30

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- Inside the Astrotech processing facility at Vandenberg Air Force Base, the OSTM/Jason-2 spacecraft is viewed from another angle after being lifted to a vertical position on the tilt dolly. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Mark Mackley

KSC-08pd1606

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-05-05

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- The Delta II second stage is transported onto Space Launch Complex 2 at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. It will be lifted into the mobile service tower and installed on the first stage for launch of the OSTM/Jason-2 spacecraft. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched on June 20. Photo credit: NASA

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NASA Image and Video Library

2008-05-05

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- On Space Launch Complex 2 at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California, the Delta II second stage is lowered inside the mobile service tower toward the first stage. The second stage will be mated to the first stage for launch of the OSTM/Jason-2 spacecraft. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched on June 20. Photo credit: NASA

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NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-29

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. – Workers prepare to move the shipping container holding the OSTM/Jason-2 satellite onto a flatbed truck at Vandenberg Air Force Base. The satellite will be transported to the Astrotech processing facility. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Steve Greenberg, JPL

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NASA Image and Video Library

2008-05-05

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- Suspended vertically, the Delta II second stage is ready to be lifted into the mobile service tower on Space Launch Complex 2 at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. The second stage will be installed on the first stage for launch of the OSTM/Jason-2 spacecraft. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched on June 20. Photo credit: NASA

KSC-08pd1282

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-29

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- Workers move the shipping container holding the OSTM/Jason-2 satellite on a flatbed truck at Vandenberg Air Force Base. The satellite will be transported to the Astrotech processing facility. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Dan Liberotti

KSC-08pd1327

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-25

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- On Space Launch Complex 2 at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California, workers center the Delta II first stage for the OSTM/Jason-2 spacecraft above the launcher in the umbilical tower. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Dan Liberotti

KSC-08pd1328

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-25

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- On Space Launch Complex 2 at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California, workers attach the Delta II first stage for the OSTM/Jason-2 spacecraft to the launcher in the umbilical tower. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Dan Liberotti

KSC-08pd1301

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-30

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- Inside the Astrotech processing facility at Vandenberg Air Force Base, workers attach an overhead crane to the OSTM/Jason-2 spacecraft. The spacecraft will be moved to a tilt dolly. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Mark Mackley

KSC-08pd1281

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-29

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- Workers prepare to move the shipping container holding the OSTM/Jason-2 satellite onto a flatbed truck at Vandenberg Air Force Base. The satellite will be transported to the Astrotech processing facility. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Dan Liberotti

KSC-08pd1614

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-05-05

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- On Space Launch Complex 2 at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California, the Delta II second stage is lowered inside the mobile service tower toward the first stage. The second stage will be mated to the first stage for launch of the OSTM/Jason-2 spacecraft. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched on June 20. Photo credit: NASA

KSC-08pd1286

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-29

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- At Vandenberg Air Force Base, workers remove the straps holding the OSTM/Jason-2 satellite shipping container on the flatbed truck. The container will be moved inside the Astrotech processing facility at right. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Dan Liberotti

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NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-29

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. – Workers adjust the shipping container holding the OSTM/Jason-2 satellite after its placement on the flatbed truck at Vandenberg Air Force Base. The satellite will be transported to the Astrotech processing facility. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Steve Greenberg, JPL

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NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-29

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. – Workers check the shipping container holding the OSTM/Jason-2 satellite after its placement on the flatbed truck at Vandenberg Air Force Base. The satellite will be transported to the Astrotech processing facility. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Steve Greenberg, JPL

KSC-08pd1300

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-30

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- Inside the Astrotech processing facility at Vandenberg Air Force Base, an overhead crane is being attached to the OSTM/Jason-2 spacecraft. The spacecraft will be moved to a tilt dolly. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Mark Mackley

KSC-08pd1086

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-29

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. – Ground support equipment associated with the OSTM/Jason-2 satellite is placed on a flatbed truck at Vandenberg Air Force Base. The equipment will accompany the satellite to the Astrotech processing facility. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Steve Greenberg, JPL

KSC-08pd1302

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-30

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- Inside the Astrotech processing facility at Vandenberg Air Force Base, technicians attach an overhead crane to the OSTM/Jason-2 spacecraft. The spacecraft will be moved to a tilt dolly. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Mark Mackley

KSC-08pd1608

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-05-05

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- Workers on Space Launch Complex 2 at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California maneuver the transporter with the Delta II second stage into place. It will be lifted into the mobile service tower and installed on the first stage for launch of the OSTM/Jason-2 spacecraft. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched on June 20. Photo credit: NASA

KSC-08pd1079

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-29

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. – After arrival of the cargo plane, the shipping container holding the OSTM/Jason-2 satellite is offloaded at Vandenberg Air Force Base. The satellite will be taken to the Astrotech processing facility. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Steve Greenberg, JPL

KSC-08pd1611

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-05-05

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- Workers on Space Launch Complex 2 at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California place protective covers over the engine of the Delta II second stage. It will be lifted into the mobile service tower for installation on the first stage for launch of the OSTM/Jason-2 spacecraft. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched on June 20. Photo credit: NASA

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NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-25

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- On Space Launch Complex 2 at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California, the Delta II first stage for the OSTM/Jason-2 spacecraft is moved into place above the launcher in the umbilical tower. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Dan Liberotti

Evaluation of data assimilation techniques for a mesoscale meteorological model and their effects on air quality model results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amicarelli, A.; Gariazzo, C.; Finardi, S.; Pelliccioni, A.; Silibello, C.

2008-05-01

Data assimilation techniques are methods to limit the growth of errors in a dynamical model by allowing observations distributed in space and time to force (nudge) model solutions. They have become common for meteorological model applications in recent years, especially to enhance weather forecast and to support air-quality studies. In order to investigate the influence of different data assimilation techniques on the meteorological fields produced by RAMS model, and to evaluate their effects on the ozone and PM10 concentrations predicted by FARM model, several numeric experiments were conducted over the urban area of Rome, Italy, during a summer episode.

Coupling of snow and permafrost processes using the Basic Modeling Interface (BMI)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, K.; Overeem, I.; Jafarov, E. E.; Piper, M.; Stewart, S.; Clow, G. D.; Schaefer, K. M.

2017-12-01

We developed a permafrost modeling tool based by implementing the Kudryavtsev empirical permafrost active layer depth model (the so-called "Ku" component). The model is specifically set up to have a basic model interface (BMI), which enhances the potential coupling to other earth surface processes model components. This model is accessible through the Web Modeling Tool in Community Surface Dynamics Modeling System (CSDMS). The Kudryavtsev model has been applied for entire Alaska to model permafrost distribution at high spatial resolution and model predictions have been verified by Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring (CALM) in-situ observations. The Ku component uses monthly meteorological forcing, including air temperature, snow depth, and snow density, and predicts active layer thickness (ALT) and temperature on the top of permafrost (TTOP), which are important factors in snow-hydrological processes. BMI provides an easy approach to couple the models with each other. Here, we provide a case of coupling the Ku component to snow process components, including the Snow-Degree-Day (SDD) method and Snow-Energy-Balance (SEB) method, which are existing components in the hydrological model TOPOFLOW. The work flow is (1) get variables from meteorology component, set the values to snow process component, and advance the snow process component, (2) get variables from meteorology and snow component, provide these to the Ku component and advance, (3) get variables from snow process component, set the values to meteorology component, and advance the meteorology component. The next phase is to couple the permafrost component with fully BMI-compliant TOPOFLOW hydrological model, which could provide a useful tool to investigate the permafrost hydrological effect.

Meteorologist saved D-Day 50 years ago

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

June 6, 1944, might have been remembered as doomsday instead of D-Day if General Dwight D. Eisenhower's chief weatherman had been wrong about his forecasts.When J. M. Stagg was appointed chief meteorological officer of the Allied Forces in October of 1943, he had no idea he would pay a crucial role in shaping world history. Little did he know it would be his analysis on which the U.S. Supreme Commander would base his decision to launch the Allied invasion on the beaches of Normandy.

90. VIEW OF OXIDIZER APRON AND SOUTH SIDE OF SKID ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

90. VIEW OF OXIDIZER APRON AND SOUTH SIDE OF SKID 9, SKID 7, AND SKID 9A. COOLING TOWER ON NORTH SIDE OF OXIDIZER APRON. LEFT TO RIGHT IN BACKGROUND: METEOROLOGICAL TOWER, SLC-3W MST, SURPLUS ATLAS E/F LAUNCHER, PYROTECHNIC SHED (BLDG. 757), STORAGE SHED (BLDG. 776), CABLE TRAYS, AND TOP OF LAUNCH OPERATIONS BUILDING (BLDG. 763). - Vandenberg Air Force Base, Space Launch Complex 3, Launch Pad 3 East, Napa & Alden Roads, Lompoc, Santa Barbara County, CA

Modeling Study for Tangier Island Jetties, Tangier Island, Virginia

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-03-01

meteorological and oceanographic (metocean) inputs used as forcing conditions. CENAO provided survey data available for Tangier Is- land from a...and 5 ft or 1.5 m). Wave direction is meteorological (e.g., direction waves coming from). Figure 55. Ten selected locations (black squares) in Alt...given in the previous sections. The Hud- son equation is well known and has been used for years to determine ar- mor stability ( Hudson 1959; Shore

Superduck Marine Meteorological Experiment Data Summary: Mean Values and Turbulence Parameters.

DTIC Science & Technology

1988-08-01

number) This report summarizes the Mean values and turbulence parameters Of Meteorological measurements made during an experiment at Duck, NC, during...Sept-Oct 1986. The measure- ments wore made to Calculate wind stress in the nearshore area. Wind stress is a primary forcing function for nearshore waves...measure. Only in recent years has technology made it possible to accurately measure its fluctuations. The krypton hygrometer is a recent development

Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) Quarterly Report First Quarter FY-14

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bauman, William Henry; Crawford, Winifred C.; Shafer, Jaclyn A.; Watson, Leela R.; Huddleston, Lisa L.; Decker, Ryan K.

2014-01-01

NASA's LSP and other programs at Vandenberg Air Force Base (VAFB) use wind forecasts issued by the 30th Operational Support Squadron (30 OSS) to determine if they need to limit activities or protect property such as a launch vehicle due to the occurrence of warning level winds at VAFB in California. The 30 OSS tasked the AMU to provide a wind forecasting capability to improve wind warning forecasts and enhance the safety of their customers' operations. This would allow 30 OSS forecasters to evaluate pressure gradient thresholds between pairs of regional observing stations to help determine the onset and duration of warning category winds. Development of such a tool will require that solid relationships exist between wind speed and the pressure gradient of one or more station pairs. As part of this task, the AMU will also create a statistical climatology of meteorological observations from the VAFB wind towers.

Proceedings: Annual Workshop on Meteorological and Environmental Inputs to Aviation Systems (4th), March 25-27, 1980.

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-03-01

Force -- 4 United States Navy -- 1 National Transportation Safety Board -- I PRIVATE SECTOR (43) University and Research -- 12 Georgia Institute of...States Air Force , Aeronautical Systems Division 6 *1 __________________________________________-our_ TABLE 4 IMPROMPTU PRESENTATIONS 񓟛 Clear Air...Propulsion Laboratory 7 concerning the Air New Zealand DC-10 accident at Mt. Erebus, Antarctica; and John Corbin of the U.S. Air Force Aeronautical

Response of South American Ecosystems to Precipitation Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knox, R. G.; Kim, Y.; Longo, M.; Medvigy, D.; Wang, J.; Moorcroft, P. R.; Bras, R. L.

2009-12-01

The Ecosystem Demography Model 2 is a dynamic ecosystem model and land surface energy balance model. ED2 discretizes landscapes of particular terrain and meteorology into fractional areas of unique disturbance history. Each fraction, defined by a shared vertical soil column and canopy air space, contains a stratum of plant groups unique in functional type, size and number density. The result is a vertically distributed representation of energy transfer and plant dynamics (mortality, productivity, recruitment, disturbance, resource competition, etc) that successfully approximates the behaviour of individual-based vegetation models. In previous exercises simulating Amazonian land surface dynamics with ED 2, it was observed that when using grid averaged precipitation as an external forcing the resulting water balance typically over-estimated leaf interception and leaf evaporation while under estimating through-fall and transpiration. To investigate this result, two scenario were conducted in which land surface biophysics and ecosystem demography over the Northern portion of South America are simulated over ~200 years: (1) ED2 is forced with grid averaged values taken from the ERA40 reanalysis meteorological dataset; (2) ED2 is forced with ERA40 reanalysis, but with its precipitation re-sampled to reflect statistical qualities of point precipitation found at rain gauge stations in the region. The findings in this study suggest that the equilibrium moisture states and vegetation demography are co-dependent and show sensitivity to temporal variability in precipitation. These sensitivities will need to be accounted for in future projections of coupled climate-ecosystem changes in South America.

Civil Protection Practitioners' Response to Introducing Nowcasting in Weather Warnings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ulbrich, Thorsten

2014-05-01

The HErZ project WEXICOM (Improving the process of weather warnings and extreme weather information in the chain from the meteorological forecasts to their communication for the Berlin conurbation) assesses the communication and use of weather warnings. In cooperation with DWD we conducted two online surveys with German relief forces before and after a nowcasting application was introduced into the weather warning platform FEWIS. The aim is to investigate how relief workers make use of the additional information. DWD supports German civil protection by providing the warning platform FeWIS (Fire brigade Weather Information System) for registered relief workers. The platform provides information on meteorological hazards needed to take precautions and to support rescue actions. In June 2013 DWD added nowcasted estimates of storm attributes including warning cones based on a 1x1 km grid. The tool named "GewitterMonitor" is based on NowcastMIX and uses short-term weather models and observations to derive warnings with high precision on intensity, location and timing of thunder storm cells for the following two hours. A first survey provided prior to the addition of nowcasted information investigates how users benefit from FeWIS and how they perceive its functionality and reliability. Following the introduction users gain experience applying the nowcasting tool in the thunderstorm season 2013. In Winter 2013/2014 we conducted another online survey. The post-survey comprises questions on the use of the GewitterMonitor and on how the tool supports relief forces in responding to meteorological risks. The post survey also repeats questions on the perception of functionality and function of FeWIS and poses questions derived from the previous survey. This second survey collects practitioners feedback on GewitterMonitor and allows to detect changes in how users perceive the performance of FeWIS after the addition by relating responses to the prior survey.

Exploring the Circulation Dynamics of Mississippi Sound and Bight Using the CONCORDE Synthesis Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, C.; Dinniman, M. S.; Fitzpatrick, P. J.; Lau, Y.; Cambazoglu, M. K.; Parra, S. M.; Hofmann, E. E.; Dzwonkowski, B.; Warner, S. J.; O'Brien, S. J.; Dykstra, S. L.; Wiggert, J. D.

2017-12-01

As part of the modeling effort of the GOMRI (Gulf of Mexico Research Initiative)-funded CONCORDE consortium, a high resolution ( 400 m) regional ocean model is implemented for the Mississippi (MS) Sound and Bight. The model is based on the Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Wave Sediment Transport Modeling System (COAWST), with initial and lateral boundary conditions drawn from data assimilative 3-day forecasts of the 1km-resolution Gulf of Mexico Navy Coastal Ocean Model (GOM-NCOM). The model initiates on 01/01/2014 and runs for 3 years. The model results are validated with available remote sensing data and with CONCORDE's moored and ship-based in-situ observations. Results from a three-year simulation (2014-2016) show that ocean circulation and water properties of the MS Sound and Bight are sensitive to meteorological forcing. A low resolution surface forcing, drawn from the North America Regional Reanalysis (NARR), and a high resolution forcing, called CONCORDE Meteorological Analysis (CMA) ) that resolves the diurnal sea breeze, are used to drive the model to examine the sensitivity of the circulation to surface forcing. The model responses to the low resolution NARR forcing and to the high resolution CMA are compared in detail for the CONCORDE Fall and Spring field campaigns when contemporaneous in situ data are available, with a focus on how simulated exchanges between MS Sound and MS Bight are impacted. In most cases, the model shows higher simulation skill when it is driven by CMA. Freshwater plumes of the MS River, MS Sound and Mobile Bay influence the shelf waters of the MS Bight in terms of material budget and dynamics. Drifters and dye experiments near Mobile Bay demonstrate that material exchanges between Mobile Bay and the Sound, and between the Sound and Bight, are sensitive to the wind strength and direction. A model - data comparison targeting the Mobile Bay plume suggests that under both northerly and southerly wind conditions the model is capable of simulating the variation of the plume in terms of velocity, plume extent, heat and salt budgets.

Sensitivity of river discharge to the quality of external meteorological forcings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Materia, S.; Dirmeyer, P.; Guo, Z.; Alessandri, A.; Navarra, A.

2009-09-01

Large-scale river routing models are essential tools to close the hydrological cycle in fully coupled climate models. Moreover, the availability of a realistic routing scheme is a powerful instrument to assess the validity of land surface parameterization, which has been recognized to be a crucial component of the global climate. This study is dedicated to assess the sensitivity of river discharge to the variation of external meteorological forcing. The Land Surface Scheme created at the Center for Ocean, Land and Atmosphere Studies (COLA), the SSiB model, was constrained with different meteorological fields. The resulting surface and sub-surface runoffs were used as forcing data for the HD River Routing Scheme. As expected, river flow is mainly sensitive to precipitation variability, but changes in radiative forcing affect discharge as well, presumably due to the interaction with evaporation. Also, this analysis provided an estimate of the sensitivity of river discharge to precipitation variations. A few areas, like Central and Eastern Asia, Southern and Central Europe and the majority of the US, show a magnified response of river discharge to a given percentage change in precipitation. Hence, an amplified effect of droughts following the reduction in precipitation, as it is indicated by many climate scenarios, may occur in places such as the Mediterranean. Conversely, increasing summer precipitation foreseen in Southern and Eastern Asia may amplify floods in one the poorest and most populated regions in the world. These results can be used for the definition and assessment of new strategies for land use and water management in the near future.

Lightning Forcing in Global Fire Models: The Importance of Temporal Resolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Felsberg, A.; Kloster, S.; Wilkenskjeld, S.; Krause, A.; Lasslop, G.

2018-01-01

In global fire models, lightning is typically prescribed from observational data with monthly mean temporal resolution while meteorological forcings, such as precipitation or temperature, are prescribed in a daily resolution. In this study, we investigate the importance of the temporal resolution of the lightning forcing for the simulation of burned area by varying from daily to monthly and annual mean forcing. For this, we utilize the vegetation fire model JSBACH-SPITFIRE to simulate burned area, forced with meteorological and lightning data derived from the general circulation model ECHAM6. On a global scale, differences in burned area caused by lightning forcing applied in coarser temporal resolution stay below 0.55% compared to the use of daily mean forcing. Regionally, however, differences reach up to 100%, depending on the region and season. Monthly averaged lightning forcing as well as the monthly lightning climatology cause differences through an interaction between lightning ignitions and fire prone weather conditions, accounted for by the fire danger index. This interaction leads to decreased burned area in the boreal zone and increased burned area in the Tropics and Subtropics under the coarser temporal resolution. The exclusion of interannual variability, when forced with the lightning climatology, has only a minor impact on the simulated burned area. Annually averaged lightning forcing causes differences as a direct result of the eliminated seasonal characteristics of lightning. Burned area is decreased in summer and increased in winter where fuel is available. Regions with little seasonality, such as the Tropics and Subtropics, experience an increase in burned area.

Snow multivariable data assimilation for hydrological predictions in Alpine sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piazzi, Gaia; Thirel, Guillaume; Campo, Lorenzo; Gabellani, Simone; Stevenin, Hervè

2017-04-01

Snowpack dynamics (snow accumulation and ablation) strongly impacts on hydrological processes in Alpine areas. During the winter season the presence of snow cover (snow accumulation) reduces the drainage in the basin with a resulting lower watershed time of concentration in case of possible rainfall events. Moreover, the release of the significant water volume stored in winter (snowmelt) considerably contributes to the total discharge during the melting period. Therefore when modeling hydrological processes in snow-dominated catchments the quality of predictions deeply depends on how the model succeeds in catching snowpack dynamics. The integration of a hydrological model with a snow module allows improving predictions of river discharges. Besides the well-known modeling limitations (uncertainty in parameterizations; possible errors affecting both meteorological forcing data and initial conditions; approximations in boundary conditions), there are physical factors that make an exhaustive reconstruction of snow dynamics complicated: snow intermittence in space and time, stratification and slow phenomena like metamorphism processes, uncertainty in snowfall evaluation, wind transportation, etc. Data Assimilation (DA) techniques provide an objective methodology to combine several independent snow-related data sources (model simulations, ground-based measurements and remote sensed observations) in order to obtain the most likely estimate of snowpack state. This study presents SMASH (Snow Multidata Assimilation System for Hydrology), a multi-layer snow dynamic model strengthened by a multivariable DA framework for hydrological purposes. The model is physically based on mass and energy balances and can be used to reproduce the main physical processes occurring within the snowpack: accumulation, density dynamics, melting, sublimation, radiative balance, heat and mass exchanges. The model is driven by observed forcing meteorological data (air temperature, wind velocity, relative air humidity, precipitation and incident solar radiation) to provide a complete estimate of snowpack state. The implementation of a DA scheme enables to assimilate simultaneously ground-based observations of different snow-related variables (snow depth, snow density, surface temperature and albedo). SMASH performances are evaluated by using observed data supplied by meteorological stations located in three experimental Alpine sites: Col de Porte (1325 m, France); Torgnon (2160 m, Italy); Weissfluhjoch (2540 m, Switzerland). A comparison analysis between the resulting performaces of Particle Filter and Ensemble Kalman Filter schemes is shown.

Modifications to the Objective Lightning Probability Forecast Tool at Kennedy Space Center/Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Florida

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crawford, Winifred; Roeder, William

2010-01-01

The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) includes the probability of lightning occurrence in their 24-Hour and Weekly Planning Forecasts, briefed at 0700 EDT for daily operations planning on Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and CCAFS. This forecast is based on subjective analyses of model and observational data and output from an objective tool developed by the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU). This tool was developed over two phases (Lambert and Wheeler 2005, Lambert 2007). It consists of five equations, one for each warm season month (May-Sep), that calculate the probability of lightning occurrence for the day and a graphical user interface (GUI) to display the output. The Phase I and II equations outperformed previous operational tools by a total of 56%. Based on this success, the 45 WS tasked the AMU with Phase III to improve the tool further.

KSC-08pd1613

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-05-05

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- On Space Launch Complex 2 at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California, the Delta II second stage is lowered inside the mobile service tower toward the opening above the first stage. The second stage will be mated to the first stage for launch of the OSTM/Jason-2 spacecraft. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched on June 20. Photo credit: NASA

Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) Quarterly Report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bauman, William; Crawford, Winifred; Watson, Leela; Wheeler, Mark

2011-01-01

This Quarter's Highlights include reports on the following tasks: (1) Mr. Wheeler completed a study for the 30th Weather Squadron at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California in which he found precursors in weather observations that will help the forecasters determine when they will get strong wind gusts at their northern towers. The final report is now on the AMU website at http://science.ksc.nasa.gov/amu/final-reports/30ws-north-base-winds.pdf. (2) continued work on the second phase of verifying the performance of the MesoNAM weather model at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). (3) continued work to improve the AMU peak wind tool by analyzing wind tower data to determine peak wind behavior during times of onshore and offshore flow. (4) continued updating lightning c1imatologies for KSC/CCAFS and other airfields around central Florida and created new c1imatologies for moisture and stability thresholds.

KSC-08pd1317

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-25

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- At Vandenberg Air Force Base in California, workers on Space Launch Complex 2 prepare to raise the Delta II first stage of the OSTM/Jason-2 spacecraft. Once it is vertical, the first stage will be transferred into the mobile service tower. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Dan Liberotti

KSC-08pd1320

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-25

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- At Vandenberg Air Force Base in California, the Delta II first stage is being raised to a vertical position in front of the mobile service tower on Space Launch Complex 2. Once it is vertical, the first stage will be transferred into the tower. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Dan Liberotti

KSC-08pd1318

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-25

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- At Vandenberg Air Force Base in California, workers prepare the equipment on Space Launch Complex 2 to raise the Delta II first stage of the OSTM/Jason-2 spacecraft. Once it is vertical, the first stage will be transferred into the mobile service tower. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Dan Liberotti

KSC-08pd1340

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-30

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- On Space Launch Complex 2 at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California, the second solid rocket motor, or SRM, is moved into place alongside the Delta II first stage. The Delta II is the launch vehicle for the OSTM/Jason-2 spacecraft. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Dan Liberotti

KSC-08pd1333

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-30

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- On Space Launch Complex 2 at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California, a solid rocket motor, or SRM, is lifted alongside the mobile service tower. The SRM will be moved inside the tower and attached to the Delta II first stage, which is the launch vehicle for the OSTM/Jason-2 spacecraft. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Dan Liberotti

KSC-08pd1313

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-25

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- In pre-dawn hours at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California, the mobile service tower/umbilical tower and launcher on Space Launch Complex 2 are being prepared for the arrival of the Delta II first stage for the OSTM/Jason-2 spacecraft. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Dan Liberotti

KSC-08pd1315

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-25

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- At Vandenberg Air Force Base in California, the Delta II first stage for the OSTM/Jason-2 spacecraft arrives on Space Launch Complex 2. The first stage will be raised to vertical and lifted into the mobile service tower (behind it, at left). The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Dan Liberotti

KSC-08pd1609

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-05-05

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- Workers on Space Launch Complex 2 at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California prepare to attach a sling crane onto the Delta II second stage. The sling will lift the second stage into the mobile service tower for installation on the first stage for launch of the OSTM/Jason-2 spacecraft. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched on June 20. Photo credit: NASA

KSC-08pd1329

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-30

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- The first solid rocket motor arrives on Space Launch Complex 2 at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. It will be attached to the Delta II first stage inside the mobile service tower. The Delta II is the launch vehicle for the OSTM/Jason-2 spacecraft. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Dan Liberotti

KSC-08pd1325

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-25

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- On Space Launch Complex 2 at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California, the mobile service tower with the Delta II first stage moves closer to the umbilical tower/launcher at right. The Delta II is the launch vehicle for the OSTM/Jason-2 spacecraft. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Dan Liberotti

KSC-08pd1323

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-25

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- At Vandenberg Air Force Base in California, the Delta II first stage is ready to be lifted into the mobile service tower on Space Launch Complex 2. The Delta II is the launch vehicle for the OSTM/Jason-2 spacecraft. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Dan Liberotti

Microcomputer pollution model for civilian airports and Air Force bases. Model description

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Segal, H.M.; Hamilton, P.L.

1988-08-01

This is one of three reports describing the Emissions and Dispersion Modeling System (EDMS). EDMS is a complex source emissions/dispersion model for use at civilian airports and Air Force bases. It operates in both a refined and a screening mode and is programmed for an IBM-XT (or compatible) computer. This report--MODEL DESCRIPTION--provides the technical description of the model. It first identifies the key design features of both the emissions (EMISSMOD) and dispersion (GIMM) portions of EDMS. It then describes the type of meteorological information the dispersion model can accept and identifies the manner in which it preprocesses National Climatic Centermore » (NCC) data prior to a refined-model run. The report presents the results of running EDMS on a number of different microcomputers and compares EDMS results with those of comparable models. The appendices elaborate on the information noted above and list the source code.« less

Diagnosing causes of cloud parameterization deficiencies using ARM measurements over SGP site

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wu, W.; Liu, Y.; Betts, A. K.

2010-03-15

Decade-long continuous surface-based measurements at Great Southern Plains (SGP) collected by the US Department of Energy’s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility are first used to evaluate the three major reanalyses (i.e., ERA-Interim, NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis I and NCEP/DOE Reanalysis II) to identify model biases in simulating surface shortwave cloud forcing and total cloud fraction. The results show large systematic lower biases in the modeled surface shortwave cloud forcing and cloud fraction from all the three reanalysis datasets. Then we focus on diagnosing the causes of these model biases using the Active Remote Sensing of Clouds (ARSCL) products (e.g., verticalmore » distribution of cloud fraction, cloud-base and cloud-top heights, and cloud optical depth) and meteorological measurements (temperature, humidity and stability). Efforts are made to couple cloud properties with boundary processes in the diagnosis.« less

Circulation and thermohaline structure of the Aral Sea in the last three years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Izhitskiy, A. S.; Zavialov, P. O.

2012-04-01

The results of the 3 latest expeditions (2009 - 2011) of the Shirshov Institute to the Aral Sea are reported. We analyze the interannual variability of the basin circulation together with the thermohaline structure in order to identify the underlying mechanisms. The study is based on the results of the field surveys of August, 2009, September, 2010, and November, 2011. The vertical profiles of temperature and salinity were obtained using a CTD profiler at 6 stations across the deepest part of the western basin in 2009 and 2010, and 3 stations in 2011. Additionally, during each of the surveys, mooring stations equipped with current meters and pressure gauges were deployed for 3-5 days in the deepest portion of the western basin. A portable automatic meteorological station, continuously recording the wind stress and the principal meteorological parameters, was installed near the mooring sites. The vertical stratification exhibited a 3-layered pattern, with local salinity maxima in the upper mixed layer and near the bottom, while the intermediate layer was characterized by a core of minimum salinity and temperature. Such a pattern persisted throughout the 3 years of observations. Analysis of the current measurements data along with the meteorological data records demonstrated that the mean basin-scale surface circulation of the Large Aral Sea is likely to have remained anticyclonic, whilst the near-bottom circulation appears to be cyclonic. The current velocity and level anomalies responded energetically to winds. Correlation analysis of the velocity and surface level series versus the wind stress allowed to quantify the response of the system to the wind forcing as well as to formulate a conceptual scheme of the lake's response to wind forcing at synoptic temporal scales.

Suspended Sediment Dynamics in the Macrotidal Seine Estuary (France): 2. Numerical Modeling of Sediment Fluxes and Budgets Under Typical Hydrological and Meteorological Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schulz, E.; Grasso, F.; Le Hir, P.; Verney, R.; Thouvenin, B.

2018-01-01

Understanding the sediment dynamics in an estuary is important for its morphodynamic and ecological assessment as well as, in case of an anthropogenically controlled system, for its maintenance. However, the quantification of sediment fluxes and budgets is extremely difficult from in-situ data and requires thoroughly validated numerical models. In the study presented here, sediment fluxes and budgets in the lower Seine Estuary were quantified and investigated from seasonal to annual time scales with respect to realistic hydro- and meteorological conditions. A realistic three-dimensional process-based hydro- and sediment-dynamic model was used to quantify mud and sand fluxes through characteristic estuarine cross-sections. In addition to a reference experiment with typical forcing, three experiments were carried out and analyzed, each differing from the reference experiment in either river discharge or wind and waves so that the effects of these forcings could be separated. Hydro- and meteorological conditions affect the sediment fluxes and budgets in different ways and at different locations. Single storm events induce strong erosion in the lower estuary and can have a significant effect on the sediment fluxes offshore of the Seine Estuary mouth, with the flux direction depending on the wind direction. Spring tides cause significant up-estuary fluxes at the mouth. A high river discharge drives barotropic down-estuary fluxes at the upper cross-sections, but baroclinic up-estuary fluxes at the mouth and offshore so that the lower estuary gains sediment during wet years. This behavior is likely to be observed worldwide in estuaries affected by density gradients and turbidity maximum dynamics.

History, Uses, and Effects of Fire in the Appalachians

Treesearch

David H. van Lear; Thomas A. Waldrop

1989-01-01

History of Fire in the Southern Appalachians Ecological and meteorological evidence suggests that lightning-caused fires were a major environmental force shaping the vegetation of the Southeastern United States for millions of years before Indians arrived in America. Lightning served as a mutagenic agent and as a factor in natural selection which forced species to...

Validation of a new SAFRAN-based gridded precipitation product for Spain and comparisons to Spain02 and ERA-Interim

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quintana-Seguí, Pere; Turco, Marco; Herrera, Sixto; Miguez-Macho, Gonzalo

2017-04-01

Offline land surface model (LSM) simulations are useful for studying the continental hydrological cycle. Because of the nonlinearities in the models, the results are very sensitive to the quality of the meteorological forcing; thus, high-quality gridded datasets of screen-level meteorological variables are needed. Precipitation datasets are particularly difficult to produce due to the inherent spatial and temporal heterogeneity of that variable. They do, however, have a large impact on the simulations, and it is thus necessary to carefully evaluate their quality in great detail. This paper reports the quality of two high-resolution precipitation datasets for Spain at the daily time scale: the new SAFRAN-based dataset and Spain02. SAFRAN is a meteorological analysis system that was designed to force LSMs and has recently been extended to the entirety of Spain for a long period of time (1979/1980-2013/2014). Spain02 is a daily precipitation dataset for Spain and was created mainly to validate regional climate models. In addition, ERA-Interim is included in the comparison to show the differences between local high-resolution and global low-resolution products. The study compares the different precipitation analyses with rain gauge data and assesses their temporal and spatial similarities to the observations. The validation of SAFRAN with independent data shows that this is a robust product. SAFRAN and Spain02 have very similar scores, although the latter slightly surpasses the former. The scores are robust with altitude and throughout the year, save perhaps in summer when a diminished skill is observed. As expected, SAFRAN and Spain02 perform better than ERA-Interim, which has difficulty capturing the effects of the relief on precipitation due to its low resolution. However, ERA-Interim reproduces spells remarkably well in contrast to the low skill shown by the high-resolution products. The high-resolution gridded products overestimate the number of precipitation days, which is a problem that affects SAFRAN more than Spain02 and is likely caused by the interpolation method. Both SAFRAN and Spain02 underestimate high precipitation events, but SAFRAN does so more than Spain02. The overestimation of low precipitation events and the underestimation of intense episodes will probably have hydrological consequences once the data are used to force a land surface or hydrological model.

Urban Modification of Convection and Rainfall in Complex Terrain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Freitag, B. M.; Nair, U. S.; Niyogi, D.

2018-03-01

Despite a globally growing proportion of cities located in regions of complex terrain, interactions between urbanization and complex terrain and their meteorological impacts are not well understood. We utilize numerical model simulations and satellite data products to investigate such impacts over San Miguel de Tucumán, Argentina. Numerical modeling experiments show urbanization results in 20-30% less precipitation downwind of the city and an eastward shift in precipitation upwind. Our experiments show that changes in surface energy, boundary layer dynamics, and thermodynamics induced by urbanization interact synergistically with the persistent forcing of atmospheric flow by complex terrain. With urbanization increasing in mountainous regions, land-atmosphere feedbacks can exaggerate meteorological forcings leading to weather impacts that require important considerations for sustainable development of urban regions within complex terrain.

Correction to "Influence of Dust and Black Carbon on the Snow Albedo in the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Version 5 Land Surface Model"

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yasunari, Teppei J.; Koster, Randal D.; Kau, K. M.; Aoki, Teruo; Sud, Yogesh C.; Yamazaki, Takeshi; Motoyoshi, Hiroki; Kokdama, Yuji

2012-01-01

The website information describing the forcing meteorological data used for the land surface model (LSM) simulation, which were observed at an Automated Meteorological Station CAWS) at the Sapporo District Meteorological Observatory maintained by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), was missing from the text. The 1-hourly data were obtained from the website of Kisyoutoukeijouhou (Information for available JMA-observed meteorological data in the past) on the website of JMA (in Japanese) (available at: http://www.jma.go.jpijmaimenulreport.html). The measurement height information of 59.5 m for the anemometer at the Sapporo Observatory was also obtained from the website of JMA (in Japanese) (available at: http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/menu/report.html). In addition, the converted 10-m wind speed, based on the AWS/JMA data, was further converted to a 2-m wind speed prior to its use with the land model as a usual treatment of off-line Catchment simulation. Please ignore the ice absorption data on the website mentioned in paragraph [15] which was not used for our calculations (but the data on the website was mostly the same as the estimated ice absorption coefficients by the following method because they partially used the same data by Warren [1984]). We calculated the ice absorption coefficients with the method mentioned in the same paragraph, for which some of the refractive index data by Warren [1984] were used and then interpolated between wavelengths, and also mentioned in paragraph [20] for the visible (VIS) and near-infrared (NIR) ranges. The optical data we used were interpolated between wavelengths as necessary.

Evaluation of multiple forcing data sets for precipitation and shortwave radiation over major land areas of China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Fan; Lu, Hui; Yang, Kun; He, Jie; Wang, Wei; Wright, Jonathon S.; Li, Chengwei; Han, Menglei; Li, Yishan

2017-11-01

Precipitation and shortwave radiation play important roles in climatic, hydrological and biogeochemical cycles. Several global and regional forcing data sets currently provide historical estimates of these two variables over China, including the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS), the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Land Data Assimilation System (CLDAS) and the China Meteorological Forcing Dataset (CMFD). The CN05.1 precipitation data set, a gridded analysis based on CMA gauge observations, also provides high-resolution historical precipitation data for China. In this study, we present an intercomparison of precipitation and shortwave radiation data from CN05.1, CMFD, CLDAS and GLDAS during 2008-2014. We also validate all four data sets against independent ground station observations. All four forcing data sets capture the spatial distribution of precipitation over major land areas of China, although CLDAS indicates smaller annual-mean precipitation amounts than CN05.1, CMFD or GLDAS. Time series of precipitation anomalies are largely consistent among the data sets, except for a sudden decrease in CMFD after August 2014. All forcing data indicate greater temporal variations relative to the mean in dry regions than in wet regions. Validation against independent precipitation observations provided by the Ministry of Water Resources (MWR) in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River indicates that CLDAS provides the most realistic estimates of spatiotemporal variability in precipitation in this region. CMFD also performs well with respect to annual mean precipitation, while GLDAS fails to accurately capture much of the spatiotemporal variability and CN05.1 contains significant high biases relative to the MWR observations. Estimates of shortwave radiation from CMFD are largely consistent with station observations, while CLDAS and GLDAS greatly overestimate shortwave radiation. All three forcing data sets capture the key features of the spatial distribution, but estimates from CLDAS and GLDAS are systematically higher than those from CMFD over most of mainland China. Based on our evaluation metrics, CLDAS slightly outperforms GLDAS. CLDAS is also closer than GLDAS to CMFD with respect to temporal variations in shortwave radiation anomalies, with substantial differences among the time series. Differences in temporal variations are especially pronounced south of 34° N. Our findings provide valuable guidance for a variety of stakeholders, including land-surface modelers and data providers.

Using avian radar to examine relationships among avian activity, bird strikes, and meteorological factors

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coates, Peter S.; Casazza, Michael L.; Halstead, Brian J.; Fleskes, Joseph P.; Laughlin, James A.

2011-01-01

Radar systems designed to detect avian activity at airfields are useful in understanding factors that influence the risk of bird and aircraft collisions (bird strikes). We used an avian radar system to measure avian activity at Beale Air Force Base, California, USA, during 2008 and 2009. We conducted a 2-part analysis to examine relationships among avian activity, bird strikes, and meteorological and time-dependent factors. We found that avian activity around the airfield was greater at times when bird strikes occurred than on average using a permutation resampling technique. Second, we developed generalized linear mixed models of an avian activity index (AAI). Variation in AAI was first explained by seasons that were based on average migration dates of birds at the study area. We then modeled AAI by those seasons to further explain variation by meteorological factors and daily light levels within a 24-hour period. In general, avian activity increased with decreased temperature, wind, visibility, precipitation, and increased humidity and cloud cover. These effects differed by season. For example, during the spring bird migration period, most avian activity occurred before sunrise at twilight hours on clear days with low winds, whereas during fall migration, substantial activity occurred after sunrise, and birds generally were more active at lower temperatures. We report parameter estimates (i.e., constants and coefficients) averaged across models and a relatively simple calculation for safety officers and wildlife managers to predict AAI and the relative risk of bird strike based on time, date, and meteorological values. We validated model predictability and assessed model fit. These analyses will be useful for general inference of avian activity and risk assessment efforts. Further investigation and ongoing data collection will refine these inference models and improve our understanding of factors that influence avian activity, which is necessary to inform management decisions aimed at reducing risk of bird strikes.

Meterology-driven Prediction of RSV/RHV Incidence in Rural Nepal

PubMed Central

Scott, Anna; Englund, Janet; Chu, Helen; Tielsch, James; Tielsch, James; Khatry, Subarna; Leclerq, Steven C; Shrestha, Laxman; Kuypers, Jane; Steinhoff, Mark C; Katz, Joanne

2017-01-01

Abstract Background Incidence of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and rhinovirus (RHV) varies throughout the year. We aim to quantify the relationship between weather variables (temperature, humidity, precipitation, and aerosol concentration) and disease incidence in order to quantify how outbreaks of RSV and RHV are related to seasonal or sub-seasonal meteorology, and if these relationships can predict viral outbreaks of RSV and RHV. Methods Health data were collected in a community-based, prospective randomized trial of maternal influenza immunization of pregnant women and their infants conducted in rural Nepal from 2011–2014. Adult illness episodes were defined as fever plus cough, sore throat, runny nose, and/or myalgia, with infant illness defined similarly but without fever requirement. Cases were identified through longitudinal household-based weekly surveillance. Temperature, humidity, precipitation, and fine particulate matter (PM 2.5) data come from reanalysis data products NCEP, Era-Interim, and Merra-2, which are produced by assimilating historical in-situ and satellite-based observations into a weather model. Results RSV exhibits a relationship with temperature after removing the seasonal cycle (r = -0.16, N = 208, P = 0.02), and RHV exhibits a strong relationship to daily temperature (r =-0.14, N =208, P = 0.05). When lagging meteorology by up to 15 weeks, correlations with disease count and weather improve (RSV: r_max = 0.45, P < 0.05; RHV: r_max = 0.15, P = 0.05). We use an SIR model forced by lagged meteorological variables to predict RSV and RHV, suggesting that disease burden can be predicted at lead times of weeks to months. Conclusion Meteorological variables are associated with RSV and RHV incidence in rural Nepal and can be used to drive predictive models with a lead time of several months. Disclosures J. Englund, Gilead: Consultant and Investigator, Research support Chimerix: Investigator, Research support Alios: Investigator, Research support Novavax: Investigator, Research support MedImmune: Investigator, Research support GlaxoSmithKline: Investigator, Research support

Establishing Mandatory Academic Degree Guidance for AFROTC (Air Force Reserve Officer Training Corps) Rated Officer Accessions

DTIC Science & Technology

1984-04-01

Scientific- Architecture 4% 4% Technical Computer Sci 38% 37% Math 40% 40% Meteorology 6% 6% Physics 12 % 13% Nontechnical Quality Freeflow 2/ Quality...Architecture 4 Computer Sci 48 43 40 Math 30 35 38 Meteorology 6 6 6 Physics 12 12 12 Engineer Electrical 40% 50% 50% Aero Group 25 25 30 Other / 35 25 20...with Technical Degrees by Major Weapon System. . . 12 FIGURE 4 - Pilots with Technical Degrees by Category . . . . . . 13 FIGURE 5 - Regression

Does temperature nudging overwhelm aerosol radiative ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

For over two decades, data assimilation (popularly known as nudging) methods have been used for improving regional weather and climate simulations by reducing model biases in meteorological parameters and processes. Similar practice is also popular in many regional integrated meteorology-air quality models that include aerosol direct and indirect effects. However in such multi-modeling systems, temperature changes due to nudging can compete with temperature changes induced by radiatively active & hygroscopic short-lived tracers leading to interesting dilemmas: From weather and climate prediction’s (retrospective or future) point of view when nudging is continuously applied, is there any real added benefit of using such complex and computationally expensive regional integrated modeling systems? What are the relative sizes of these two competing forces? To address these intriguing questions, we convert temperature changes due to nudging into radiative fluxes (referred to as the pseudo radiative forcing, PRF) at the surface and troposphere, and compare the net PRF with the reported aerosol radiative forcing. Results indicate that the PRF at surface dominates PRF at top of the atmosphere (i.e., the net). Also, the net PRF is about 2-4 times larger than estimated aerosol radiative forcing at regional scales while it is significantly larger at local scales. These results also show large surface forcing errors at many polluted urban sites. Thus, operational c

Forecasting of extreme events in Andes mountain basins using CFSv2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castro, L.

2017-12-01

As has been shown in several recent studies related with climate change, there has been an increase in heavy daily precipitation events, and this is expected to continue in almost all areas of the globe. In central Chile, where the hydrological regime is influenced by snow accumulation, an increase in temperatures is expected due to CC, which in turn may cause an elevation of the freezing level. The impact on the freezing level increase is also significant because a larger area of the basin will be exposed to liquid precipitation rather than snow, and afterwards will have a strong impact on streamflow. The frequency of extreme precipitation events and freezing level increases have recently affected the north and central parts of Chile. In order to predict the severity of an extreme hydrometeorological event in a mountainous basin affected by rainfall and freezing level variations, this paper pose that it is necessary to know in advance the expected meteorology and the way it will affect the hydrological response of the basin. To achieve this purpose, it will be necessary to have meteorological forecasts of a numerical model for short-term prediction, corrected and disaggregated at local scale. The methodological process is as follows. First, we consider the generation of daily forecasts at local scale using statistical downscaling methods for the forecasts obtained from an NWP model. Second, we pose to improve our knowledge the spatial-temporal distribution of the meteorological forcings using a dense network of meteorological stations in a mountain basin. With the above, the statistical methods used to represent the spatial-temporal variability of the meteorological forcings at basin scale will be evaluated.

Use of Advanced Meteorological Model Output for Coastal Ocean Modeling in Puget Sound

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yang, Zhaoqing; Khangaonkar, Tarang; Wang, Taiping

2011-06-01

It is a great challenge to specify meteorological forcing in estuarine and coastal circulation modeling using observed data because of the lack of complete datasets. As a result of this limitation, water temperature is often not simulated in estuarine and coastal modeling, with the assumption that density-induced currents are generally dominated by salinity gradients. However, in many situations, temperature gradients could be sufficiently large to influence the baroclinic motion. In this paper, we present an approach to simulate water temperature using outputs from advanced meteorological models. This modeling approach was applied to simulate annual variations of water temperatures of Pugetmore » Sound, a fjordal estuary in the Pacific Northwest of USA. Meteorological parameters from North American Region Re-analysis (NARR) model outputs were evaluated with comparisons to observed data at real-time meteorological stations. Model results demonstrated that NARR outputs can be used to drive coastal ocean models for realistic simulations of long-term water-temperature distributions in Puget Sound. Model results indicated that the net flux from NARR can be further improved with the additional information from real-time observations.« less

Soil water content assessment: critical issues concerning the operational application of the triangle method.

PubMed

Maltese, Antonino; Capodici, Fulvio; Ciraolo, Giuseppe; La Loggia, Goffredo

2015-03-19

Knowledge of soil water content plays a key role in water management efforts to improve irrigation efficiency. Among the indirect estimation methods of soil water content via Earth Observation data is the triangle method, used to analyze optical and thermal features because these are primarily controlled by water content within the near-surface evaporation layer and root zone in bare and vegetated soils. Although the soil-vegetation-atmosphere transfer theory describes the ongoing processes, theoretical models reveal limits for operational use. When applying simplified empirical formulations, meteorological forcing could be replaced with alternative variables when the above-canopy temperature is unknown, to mitigate the effects of calibration inaccuracies or to account for the temporal admittance of the soil. However, if applied over a limited area, a characterization of both dry and wet edges could not be properly achieved; thus, a multi-temporal analysis can be exploited to include outer extremes in soil water content. A diachronic empirical approach introduces the need to assume a constancy of other meteorological forcing variables that control thermal features. Airborne images were acquired on a Sicilian vineyard during most of an entire irrigation period (fruit-set to ripening stages, vintage 2008), during which in situ soil water content was measured to set up the triangle method. Within this framework, we tested the triangle method by employing alternative thermal forcing. The results were inaccurate when air temperature at airborne acquisition was employed. Sonic and aerodynamic air temperatures confirmed and partially explained the limits of simultaneous meteorological forcing, and the use of proxy variables improved model accuracy. The analysis indicates that high spatial resolution does not necessarily imply higher accuracies.

Soil Water Content Assessment: Critical Issues Concerning the Operational Application of the Triangle Method

PubMed Central

Maltese, Antonino; Capodici, Fulvio; Ciraolo, Giuseppe; La Loggia, Goffredo

2015-01-01

Knowledge of soil water content plays a key role in water management efforts to improve irrigation efficiency. Among the indirect estimation methods of soil water content via Earth Observation data is the triangle method, used to analyze optical and thermal features because these are primarily controlled by water content within the near-surface evaporation layer and root zone in bare and vegetated soils. Although the soil-vegetation-atmosphere transfer theory describes the ongoing processes, theoretical models reveal limits for operational use. When applying simplified empirical formulations, meteorological forcing could be replaced with alternative variables when the above-canopy temperature is unknown, to mitigate the effects of calibration inaccuracies or to account for the temporal admittance of the soil. However, if applied over a limited area, a characterization of both dry and wet edges could not be properly achieved; thus, a multi-temporal analysis can be exploited to include outer extremes in soil water content. A diachronic empirical approach introduces the need to assume a constancy of other meteorological forcing variables that control thermal features. Airborne images were acquired on a Sicilian vineyard during most of an entire irrigation period (fruit-set to ripening stages, vintage 2008), during which in situ soil water content was measured to set up the triangle method. Within this framework, we tested the triangle method by employing alternative thermal forcing. The results were inaccurate when air temperature at airborne acquisition was employed. Sonic and aerodynamic air temperatures confirmed and partially explained the limits of simultaneous meteorological forcing, and the use of proxy variables improved model accuracy. The analysis indicates that high spatial resolution does not necessarily imply higher accuracies. PMID:25808771

Ask the Librarian - Naval Oceanography Portal

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Synthetic drought event sets: thousands of meteorological drought events for risk-based management under present and future conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guillod, Benoit P.; Massey, Neil; Otto, Friederike E. L.; Allen, Myles R.; Jones, Richard; Hall, Jim W.

2016-04-01

Droughts and related water scarcity can have large impacts on societies and consist of interactions between a number of natural and human factors. Meteorological conditions are usually the first natural trigger of droughts, and climate change is expected to impact these and thereby the frequency and intensity of the events. However, extreme events such as droughts are, by definition, rare, and accurately quantifying the risk related to such events is therefore difficult. The MaRIUS project (Managing the Risks, Impacts and Uncertainties of drought and water Scarcity) aims at quantifying the risks associated with droughts in the UK under present and future conditions. To do so, a large number of drought events, from climate model simulations downscaled at 25km over Europe, are being fed into hydrological models of various complexity and used for the estimation of drought risk associated with human and natural systems, including impacts on the economy, industry, agriculture, terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, and socio-cultural aspects. Here, we present the hydro-meteorological drought event set that has been produced by weather@home [1] for MaRIUS. Using idle processor time on volunteers' computers around the world, we have run a very large number (10'000s) of Global Climate Model (GCM) simulations, downscaled at 25km over Europe by a nested Regional Climate Model (RCM). Simulations include the past 100 years as well as two future horizons (2030s and 2080s), and provide a large number of sequences of spatio-temporally consistent weather, which are consistent with the boundary forcing such as the ocean, greenhouse gases and solar forcing. The drought event set for use in impact studies is constructed by extracting sequences of dry conditions from these model runs, leading to several thousand drought events. In addition to describing methodological and validation aspects of the synthetic drought event sets, we provide insights into drought risk in the UK, its meteorological drivers, and how it can be expected to change in the future. Finally, we assess the applicability of this methodology to other regions. [1] Massey, N. et al., 2014, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc.

Applied Meteorology Unit Quarterly Report. First Quarter FY-13

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2013-01-01

The AMU team worked on five tasks for their customers: (1) Ms. Crawford continued work on the objective lightning forecast task for airports in east-central Florida. (2) Ms. Shafer continued work on the task for Vandenberg Air Force Base to create an automated tool that will help forecasters relate pressure gradients to peak wind values. (3) Dr. Huddleston began work to develop a lightning timing forecast tool for the Kennedy Space Center/Cape Canaveral Air Force Station area. (3) Dr. Bauman began work on a severe weather forecast tool focused on east-central Florida. (4) Dr. Watson completed testing high-resolution model configurations for Wallops Flight Facility and the Eastern Range, and wrote the final report containing the AMU's recommendations for model configurations at both ranges.

Estimation of Regional Net CO2 Exchange over the Southern Great Plains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biraud, S. C.; Riley, W. J.; Fischer, M. L.; Torn, M. S.; Cooley, H. S.

2004-12-01

Estimating spatially distributed ecosystem CO2 exchange is an important component of the North American Carbon Program. We describe here a methodology to estimate Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE) over the Southern Great Plains, using: (1) data from the Department Of Energy's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) sites in Oklahoma and Kansas; (2) meteorological forcing data from the Mesonet facilities; (3) soil and vegetation types from 1 km resolution USGS databases; (4) vegetation status (e.g., LAI) from 1 km satellite measurements of surface reflectance (MODIS); (5) a tested land-surface model; and (6) a coupled land-surface and meteorological model (MM5/ISOLSM). This framework allows us to simulate regional surface fluxes in addition to ABL and free troposphere concentrations of CO2 at a continental scale with fine-scale nested grids centered on the ARM central facility. We use the offline land-surface and coupled models to estimate regional NEE, and compare predictions to measurements from the 9 Extended Facility sites with eddy correlation measurements. Site level comparisons to portable ECOR measurements in several crop types are also presented. Our approach also allows us to extend bottom-up estimates to periods and areas where meteorological forcing data are unavailable.

A Multidisciplinary Approach to Assessing the Causal Components of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gosnold, W. D.; Todhunter, P. E.; Dong, X.; Rundquist, B.; Majorowicz, J.; Blackwell, D. D.

2004-05-01

Separation of climate forcing by anthropogenic greenhouse gases from natural radiative climate forcing is difficult because the composite temperature signal in the meteorological and multi-proxy temperature records cannot be resolved directly into radiative forcing components. To address this problem, we have initiated a large-scale, multidisciplinary project to test coherence between ground surface temperatures (GST) reconstructed from borehole T-z profiles, surface air temperatures (SAT), soil temperatures, and solar radiation. Our hypothesis is that radiative heating and heat exchange between the ground and the air directly control the ground surface temperature. Consequently, borehole T-z measurements at multi-year intervals spanning time periods when solar radiation, soil and air temperatures have been recorded should enable comparison of the thermal energy stored in the ground to these quantities. If coherence between energy storage, solar radiation, GST, SAT and multi-proxy temperature data can be discerned for a one or two decade scale, synthesis of GST and multi-proxy data over the past several centuries may enable us to separately determine the anthropogenic and natural forcings of climate change. The data we are acquiring include: (1) New T-z measurements in boreholes previously used in paleoclimate and heat flow research in Canada and the United States from the 1970's to the present. (2) Meteorological data from the US Historical Climatology Network and the Automated Weather Data Network of the High Plains Regional Climate Center, and Environment Canada. (3) Direct and remotely sensed data on land use, environment, and soil properties at selected borehole and meteorological sites for the periods between borehole observations. The project addresses three related questions: What is the coherence between the GST, SAT, soil temperatures and solar radiation? Have microclimate changes at borehole sites and climate stations affected temperature trends? If good coherence is obtained, can the coherence between thermal energy stored in the ground and radiative forcing during the time between T-z measurements be extended several centuries into the past?

Contributions of different bias-correction methods and reference meteorological forcing data sets to uncertainty in projected temperature and precipitation extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iizumi, Toshichika; Takikawa, Hiroki; Hirabayashi, Yukiko; Hanasaki, Naota; Nishimori, Motoki

2017-08-01

The use of different bias-correction methods and global retrospective meteorological forcing data sets as the reference climatology in the bias correction of general circulation model (GCM) daily data is a known source of uncertainty in projected climate extremes and their impacts. Despite their importance, limited attention has been given to these uncertainty sources. We compare 27 projected temperature and precipitation indices over 22 regions of the world (including the global land area) in the near (2021-2060) and distant future (2061-2100), calculated using four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), five GCMs, two bias-correction methods, and three reference forcing data sets. To widen the variety of forcing data sets, we developed a new forcing data set, S14FD, and incorporated it into this study. The results show that S14FD is more accurate than other forcing data sets in representing the observed temperature and precipitation extremes in recent decades (1961-2000 and 1979-2008). The use of different bias-correction methods and forcing data sets contributes more to the total uncertainty in the projected precipitation index values in both the near and distant future than the use of different GCMs and RCPs. However, GCM appears to be the most dominant uncertainty source for projected temperature index values in the near future, and RCP is the most dominant source in the distant future. Our findings encourage climate risk assessments, especially those related to precipitation extremes, to employ multiple bias-correction methods and forcing data sets in addition to using different GCMs and RCPs.

Informing Drought Preparedness and Response with the South Asia Land Data Assimilation System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaitchik, B. F.; Ghatak, D.; Matin, M. A.; Qamer, F. M.; Adhikary, B.; Bajracharya, B.; Nelson, J.; Pulla, S. T.; Ellenburg, W. L.

2017-12-01

Decision-relevant drought monitoring in South Asia is a challenge from both a scientific and an institutional perspective. Scientifically, climatic diversity, inconsistent in situ monitoring, complex hydrology, and incomplete knowledge of atmospheric processes mean that monitoring and prediction are fraught with uncertainty. Institutionally, drought monitoring efforts need to align with the information needs and decision-making processes of relevant agencies at national and subnational levels. Here we present first results from an emerging operational drought monitoring and forecast system developed and supported by the NASA SERVIR Hindu-Kush Himalaya hub. The system has been designed in consultation with end users from multiple sectors in South Asian countries to maximize decision-relevant information content in the monitoring and forecast products. Monitoring of meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological drought is accomplished using the South Asia Land Data Assimilation System, a platform that supports multiple land surface models and meteorological forcing datasets to characterize uncertainty, and subseasonal to seasonal hydrological forecasts are produced by driving South Asia LDAS with downscaled meteorological fields drawn from an ensemble of global dynamically-based forecast systems. Results are disseminated to end users through a Tethys online visualization platform and custom communications that provide user oriented, easily accessible, timely, and decision-relevant scientific information.

Operational hydrological forecasting in Bavaria. Part II: Ensemble forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ehret, U.; Vogelbacher, A.; Moritz, K.; Laurent, S.; Meyer, I.; Haag, I.

2009-04-01

In part I of this study, the operational flood forecasting system in Bavaria and an approach to identify and quantify forecast uncertainty was introduced. The approach is split into the calculation of an empirical 'overall error' from archived forecasts and the calculation of an empirical 'model error' based on hydrometeorological forecast tests, where rainfall observations were used instead of forecasts. The 'model error' can especially in upstream catchments where forecast uncertainty is strongly dependent on the current predictability of the atrmosphere be superimposed on the spread of a hydrometeorological ensemble forecast. In Bavaria, two meteorological ensemble prediction systems are currently tested for operational use: the 16-member COSMO-LEPS forecast and a poor man's ensemble composed of DWD GME, DWD Cosmo-EU, NCEP GFS, Aladin-Austria, MeteoSwiss Cosmo-7. The determination of the overall forecast uncertainty is dependent on the catchment characteristics: 1. Upstream catchment with high influence of weather forecast a) A hydrological ensemble forecast is calculated using each of the meteorological forecast members as forcing. b) Corresponding to the characteristics of the meteorological ensemble forecast, each resulting forecast hydrograph can be regarded as equally likely. c) The 'model error' distribution, with parameters dependent on hydrological case and lead time, is added to each forecast timestep of each ensemble member d) For each forecast timestep, the overall (i.e. over all 'model error' distribution of each ensemble member) error distribution is calculated e) From this distribution, the uncertainty range on a desired level (here: the 10% and 90% percentile) is extracted and drawn as forecast envelope. f) As the mean or median of an ensemble forecast does not necessarily exhibit meteorologically sound temporal evolution, a single hydrological forecast termed 'lead forecast' is chosen and shown in addition to the uncertainty bounds. This can be either an intermediate forecast between the extremes of the ensemble spread or a manually selected forecast based on a meteorologists advice. 2. Downstream catchments with low influence of weather forecast In downstream catchments with strong human impact on discharge (e.g. by reservoir operation) and large influence of upstream gauge observation quality on forecast quality, the 'overall error' may in most cases be larger than the combination of the 'model error' and an ensemble spread. Therefore, the overall forecast uncertainty bounds are calculated differently: a) A hydrological ensemble forecast is calculated using each of the meteorological forecast members as forcing. Here, additionally the corresponding inflow hydrograph from all upstream catchments must be used. b) As for an upstream catchment, the uncertainty range is determined by combination of 'model error' and the ensemble member forecasts c) In addition, the 'overall error' is superimposed on the 'lead forecast'. For reasons of consistency, the lead forecast must be based on the same meteorological forecast in the downstream and all upstream catchments. d) From the resulting two uncertainty ranges (one from the ensemble forecast and 'model error', one from the 'lead forecast' and 'overall error'), the envelope is taken as the most prudent uncertainty range. In sum, the uncertainty associated with each forecast run is calculated and communicated to the public in the form of 10% and 90% percentiles. As in part I of this study, the methodology as well as the useful- or uselessness of the resulting uncertainty ranges will be presented and discussed by typical examples.

Describing the direct and indirect radiative effects of atmospheric aerosols over Europe by using coupled meteorology-chemistry simulations: a contribution from the AQMEII-Phase II exercise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jimenez-Guerrero, Pedro; Balzarini, Alessandra; Baró, Rocío; Curci, Gabriele; Forkel, Renate; Hirtl, Marcus; Honzak, Luka; Langer, Matthias; Pérez, Juan L.; Pirovano, Guido; San José, Roberto; Tuccella, Paolo; Werhahn, Johannes; Zabkar, Rahela

2014-05-01

The study of the response of the aerosol levels in the atmosphere to a changing climate and how this affects the radiative budget of the Earth (direct, semi-direct and indirect effects) is an essential topic to build confidence on climate science, since these feedbacks involve the largest uncertainties nowadays. Air quality-climate interactions (AQCI) are, therefore, a key, but uncertain contributor to the anthropogenic forcing that remains poorly understood. To build confidence in the AQCI studies, regional-scale integrated meteorology-atmospheric chemistry models (i.e., models with on-line chemistry) that include detailed treatment of aerosol life cycle and aerosol impacts on radiation (direct effects) and clouds (indirect effects) are in demand. In this context, the main objective of this contribution is the study and definition of the uncertainties in the climate-chemistry-aerosol-cloud-radiation system associated to the direct radiative forcing and the indirect effect caused by aerosols over Europe, using an ensemble of fully-coupled meteorology-chemistry model simulations with the WRF-Chem model run under the umbrella of AQMEII-Phase 2 international initiative. Simulations were performed for Europe for the entire year 2010. According to the common simulation strategy, the year was simulated as a sequence of 2-day time slices. For better comparability, the seven groups applied the same grid spacing of 23 km and shared common processing of initial and boundary conditions as well as anthropogenic and fire emissions. With exception of a simulation with different cloud microphysics, identical physics options were chosen while the chemistry options were varied. Two model set-ups will be considered here: one sub-ensemble of simulations not taking into account any aerosol feedbacks (the baseline case) and another sub-ensemble of simulations which differs from the former by the inclusion of aerosol-radiation feedback. The existing differences for meteorological variables (mainly 2-m temperature and precipitation) and air quality levels (mainly ozone an PM10) between both sub-ensembles of WRF-Chem simulations have been characterized. In the case of ozone and PM10, an increase in solar radiation and temperature has generally resulted in an enhanced photochemical activity and therefore a negative feedback (areas with low aerosol concentrations present more than 50 W m-2 higher global radiation for cloudy conditions). However, simulated feedback effects between aerosol concentrations and meteorological variables and on pollutant distributions strongly depend on the model configuration and the meteorological situation. These results will help providing improved science-based foundations to better assess the impacts of climate variability, support the development of effective climate change policies and optimize private decision-making.

Sensitivity of the interannual variability of mineral aerosol simulations to meteorological forcing dataset

DOE PAGES

Smith, Molly B.; Mahowald, Natalie M.; Albani, Samuel; ...

2017-03-07

Interannual variability in desert dust is widely observed and simulated, yet the sensitivity of these desert dust simulations to a particular meteorological dataset, as well as a particular model construction, is not well known. Here we use version 4 of the Community Atmospheric Model (CAM4) with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) to simulate dust forced by three different reanalysis meteorological datasets for the period 1990–2005. We then contrast the results of these simulations with dust simulated using online winds dynamically generated from sea surface temperatures, as well as with simulations conducted using other modeling frameworks but the same meteorological forcings, in order tomore » determine the sensitivity of climate model output to the specific reanalysis dataset used. For the seven cases considered in our study, the different model configurations are able to simulate the annual mean of the global dust cycle, seasonality and interannual variability approximately equally well (or poorly) at the limited observational sites available. Altogether, aerosol dust-source strength has remained fairly constant during the time period from 1990 to 2005, although there is strong seasonal and some interannual variability simulated in the models and seen in the observations over this time period. Model interannual variability comparisons to observations, as well as comparisons between models, suggest that interannual variability in dust is still difficult to simulate accurately, with averaged correlation coefficients of 0.1 to 0.6. Because of the large variability, at least 1 year of observations at most sites are needed to correctly observe the mean, but in some regions, particularly the remote oceans of the Southern Hemisphere, where interannual variability may be larger than in the Northern Hemisphere, 2–3 years of data are likely to be needed.« less

The meteorological monitoring system for the Kennedy Space Center/Cape Canaveral Air Station

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dianic, Allan V.

1994-01-01

The Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Station (CCAS) are involved in many weather-sensitive operations. Manned and unmanned vehicle launches, which occur several times each year, are obvious example of operations whose success and safety are dependent upon favorable meteorological conditions. Other operations involving NASA, Air Force, and contractor personnel, including daily operations to maintain facilities, refurbish launch structures, prepare vehicles for launch, and handle hazardous materials, are less publicized but are no less weather-sensitive. The Meteorological Monitoring System (MMS) is a computer network which acquires, processes, disseminates, and monitors near real-time and forecast meteorological information to assist operational personnel and weather forecasters with the task of minimizing the risk to personnel, materials, and the surrounding population. CLIPS has been integrated into the MMS to provide quality control analysis and data monitoring. This paper describes aspects of the MMS relevant to CLIPS including requirements, actual implementation details, and results of performance testing.

Climatological Downscaling and Evaluation of AGRMET Precipitation Analyses Over the Continental U.S.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia, M.; Peters-Lidard, C. D.; Eylander, J. B.; Daly, C.; Tian, Y.; Zeng, J.

2007-05-01

The spatially distributed application of a land surface model (LSM) over a region of interest requires the application of similarly distributed precipitation fields that can be derived from various sources, including surface gauge networks, surface-based radar, and orbital platforms. The spatial variability of precipitation influences the spatial organization of soil temperature and moisture states and, consequently, the spatial variability of land- atmosphere fluxes. The accuracy of spatially-distributed precipitation fields can contribute significantly to the uncertainty of model-based hydrological states and fluxes at the land surface. Collaborations between the Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA), NASA, and Oregon State University have led to improvements in the processing of meteorological forcing inputs for the NASA-GSFC Land Information System (LIS; Kumar et al. 2006), a sophisticated framework for LSM operation and model coupling experiments. Efforts at AFWA toward the production of surface hydrometeorological products are currently in transition from the legacy Agricultural Meteorology modeling system (AGRMET) to use of the LIS framework and procedures. Recent enhancements to meteorological input processing for application to land surface models in LIS include the assimilation of climate-based information for the spatial interpolation and downscaling of precipitation fields. Climatological information included in the LIS-based downscaling procedure for North America is provided by a monthly high-resolution PRISM (Daly et al. 1994, 2002; Daly 2006) dataset based on a 30-year analysis period. The combination of these sources and methods attempts to address the strengths and weaknesses of available legacy products, objective interpolation methods, and the PRISM knowledge-based methodology. All of these efforts are oriented on an operational need for timely estimation of spatial precipitation fields at adequate spatial resolution for customer dissemination and near-real-time simulations in regions of interest. This work focuses on value added to the AGRMET precipitation product by the inclusion of high-quality climatological information on a monthly time scale. The AGRMET method uses microwave-based satellite precipitation estimates from various polar-orbiting platforms (NOAA POES and DMSP), infrared-based estimates from geostationary platforms (GOES, METEOSAT, etc.), related cloud analysis products, and surface gauge observations in a complex and hierarchical blending process. Results from processing of the legacy AGRMET precipitation products over the U.S. using LIS-based methods for downscaling, both with and without climatological factors, are evaluated against high-resolution monthly analyses using the PRISM knowledge- based method (Daly et al. 2002). It is demonstrated that the incorporation of climatological information in a downscaling procedure can significantly enhance the accuracy, and potential utility, of AFWA precipitation products for military and civilian customer applications.

The relationship between Arabian Sea upwelling and Indian Monsoon revisited

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yi, Xing; Zorita, Eduardo; Hünicke, Birgit

2015-04-01

Coastal upwelling is important to marine ecosystems and human activities. It transports nutrient-rich deep water mass that supports marine biological productivity. In this study, we aim to characterize the large-scale climate forcings that drive upwelling along the western Arabian Sea coast. Studies based on ocean sediments suggest that there is a link between this coastal upwelling system and the Indian summer monsoon. However, a more direct method is needed to examine the influence of various forcings on upwelling. For this purpose, we analyse a high-resolution (about 10 km) global ocean simulation (denoted STORM), which is based on the MPI-OM model developed by the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg driven by the global meteorological reanalysis NCEP over the period 1950-2010. This very high spatial resolution allows us to identify characteristics of the coastal upwelling system. We compare the simulated upwelling velocity of STORM with two traditional upwelling indices: along-shore wind speed and sea surface temperature. The analysis reveals good consistency between these variables, with high correlations between coastal upwelling and along-shore wind speed (r=0.85) as well as coastal sea surface temperature (r=-0.77). To study the impact of the monsoon on the upwelling we analyse both temporal and spatial co-variability between upwelling velocity and the Indian summer monsoon index. The spatial analysis shows that the impact of the monsoon on the upwelling is concentrated along the coast, as expected. However, somewhat unexpectedly, the temporal correlation between the coastal upwelling and the monsoon index is rather weak (r=0.26). Also, the spatial structure of upwelling in the Arabian Sea as revealed by a Principal Component Analysis is rather rich, indicating that factors other than the Monsoon are also important drivers of upwelling. In addition, no detectable trend in our coastal upwelling is found in the simulation that would match the prediction of a strengthening of upwelling under anthropogenic radiative forcing.

A Discretization Algorithm for Meteorological Data and its Parallelization Based on Hadoop

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Chao; Jin, Wen; Yu, Yuting; Qiu, Taorong; Bai, Xiaoming; Zou, Shuilong

2017-10-01

In view of the large amount of meteorological observation data, the property is more and the attribute values are continuous values, the correlation between the elements is the need for the application of meteorological data, this paper is devoted to solving the problem of how to better discretize large meteorological data to more effectively dig out the hidden knowledge in meteorological data and research on the improvement of discretization algorithm for large scale data, in order to achieve data in the large meteorological data discretization for the follow-up to better provide knowledge to provide protection, a discretization algorithm based on information entropy and inconsistency of meteorological attributes is proposed and the algorithm is parallelized under Hadoop platform. Finally, the comparison test validates the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm for discretization in the area of meteorological large data.

A wind energy benchmark for ABL modelling of a diurnal cycle with a nocturnal low-level jet: GABLS3 revisited

DOE PAGES

Rodrigo, J. Sanz; Churchfield, M.; Kosović, B.

2016-10-03

The third GEWEX Atmospheric Boundary Layer Studies (GABLS3) model intercomparison study, around the Cabauw met tower in the Netherlands, is revisited as a benchmark for wind energy atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) models. The case was originally developed by the boundary layer meteorology community, interested in analysing the performance of single-column and large-eddy simulation atmospheric models dealing with a diurnal cycle leading to the development of a nocturnal low-level jet. The case addresses fundamental questions related to the definition of the large-scale forcing, the interaction of the ABL with the surface and the evaluation of model results with observations. The characterizationmore » of mesoscale forcing for asynchronous microscale modelling of the ABL is discussed based on momentum budget analysis of WRF simulations. Then a single-column model is used to demonstrate the added value of incorporating different forcing mechanisms in microscale models. The simulations are evaluated in terms of wind energy quantities of interest.« less

The Applied Meteorology Unit: Nineteen Years Successfully Transitioning Research into Operations for America's Space Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Madura, John T.; Bauman, William H.; Merceret, Francis J.; Roeder, William P.; Brody, Frank C.; Hagemeyer, Bartlett C.

2010-01-01

The Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) provides technology transition and technique development to improve operational weather support to the Space Shuttle and the entire American space program. The AMU is funded and managed by NASA and operated by a contractor that provides five meteorologists with a diverse mix of advanced degrees, operational experience, and associated skills including data processing, statistics, and the development of graphical user interfaces. The AMU's primary customers are the U.S. Air Force 45th Weather Squadron at Patrick Air Force Base, the National Weather Service Spaceflight Meteorology Group at NASA Johnson Space Center, and the National Weather Service Melbourne FL Forecast Office. The AMU has transitioned research into operations for nineteen years and worked on a wide range of topics, including new forecasting techniques for lightning probability, synoptic peak winds,.convective winds, and summer severe weather; satellite tools to predict anvil cloud trajectories and evaluate camera line of sight for Space Shuttle launch; optimized radar scan strategies; evaluated and implemented local numerical models; evaluated weather sensors; and many more. The AMU has completed 113 projects with 5 more scheduled to be completed by the end of 2010. During this rich history, the AMU and its customers have learned many lessons on how to effectively transition research into operations. Some of these lessons learned include collocating with the operational customer and periodically visiting geographically separated customers, operator submitted projects, consensus tasking process, use of operator primary advocates for each project, customer AMU liaisons with experience in both operations and research, flexibility in adapting the project plan based on lessons learned during the project, and incorporating training and other transition assistance into the project plans. Operator involvement has been critical to the AMU's remarkable success and many awards from NASA, the National Weather Association, and two citations from the Navy's Center of Excellence for Best Manufacturing Practices. This paper will present the AMU's proven methods and explain how they may be applied by other organizations to effectively transition research into operations.

Space-Time Controls on Carbon Sequestration Over Large-Scale Amazon Basin

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Eric A.; Cooper, Harry J.; Gu, Jiujing; Grose, Andrew; Norman, John; daRocha, Humberto R.; Starr, David O. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

A major research focus of the LBA Ecology Program is an assessment of the carbon budget and the carbon sequestering capacity of the large scale forest-pasture system that dominates the Amazonia landscape, and its time-space heterogeneity manifest in carbon fluxes across the large scale Amazon basin ecosystem. Quantification of these processes requires a combination of in situ measurements, remotely sensed measurements from space, and a realistically forced hydrometeorological model coupled to a carbon assimilation model, capable of simulating details within the surface energy and water budgets along with the principle modes of photosynthesis and respiration. Here we describe the results of an investigation concerning the space-time controls of carbon sources and sinks distributed over the large scale Amazon basin. The results are derived from a carbon-water-energy budget retrieval system for the large scale Amazon basin, which uses a coupled carbon assimilation-hydrometeorological model as an integrating system, forced by both in situ meteorological measurements and remotely sensed radiation fluxes and precipitation retrieval retrieved from a combination of GOES, SSM/I, TOMS, and TRMM satellite measurements. Brief discussion concerning validation of (a) retrieved surface radiation fluxes and precipitation based on 30-min averaged surface measurements taken at Ji-Parana in Rondonia and Manaus in Amazonas, and (b) modeled carbon fluxes based on tower CO2 flux measurements taken at Reserva Jaru, Manaus and Fazenda Nossa Senhora. The space-time controls on carbon sequestration are partitioned into sets of factors classified by: (1) above canopy meteorology, (2) incoming surface radiation, (3) precipitation interception, and (4) indigenous stomatal processes varied over the different land covers of pristine rainforest, partially, and fully logged rainforests, and pasture lands. These are the principle meteorological, thermodynamical, hydrological, and biophysical control paths which perturb net carbon fluxes and sequestration, produce time-space switching of carbon sources and sinks, undergo modulation through atmospheric boundary layer feedbacks, and respond to any discontinuous intervention on the landscape itself such as produced by human intervention in converting rainforest to pasture or conducting selective/clearcut logging operations.

Current status of validating operational model forecasts at the DWD site Lindenberg

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beyrich, F.; Heret, C.; Vogel, G.

2009-09-01

Based on long experience in the measurement of atmospheric boundary layer parameters, the Meteorological Observatory Lindenberg / Richard - Aßmann-Observatory is well qualified to validate operational NWP results for this location. The validation activities cover a large range of time periods from single days or months up to several years and include much more quantities than generally used in areal verification techniques. They mainly focus on land surface and boundary layer processes which play an important role in the atmospheric forc-ing from the surface. Versatility and continuity of the database enable a comprehensive evaluation of the model behaviour under different meteorological conditions in order to esti-mate the accuracy of the physical parameterisations and to detect possible deficiencies in the predicted processes. The measurements from the boundary layer field site Falkenberg serve as reference data for various types of validation studies: 1. The operational boundary-layer measurements are used to identify and to document weather situations with large forecast errors which can then be analysed in more de-tail. Results from a case study will be presented where model deficiencies in the cor-rect simulation of the diurnal evolution of near-surface temperature under winter con-ditions over a closed snow cover where diagnosed. 2. Due to the synopsis of the boundary layer quantities based on monthly averaged di-urnal cycles systematic model deficiencies can be detected more clearly. Some dis-tinctive features found in the annual cycle (e.g. near-surface temperatures, turbulent heat fluxes and soil moisture) will be outlined. Further aspects are their different ap-pearance in the COSMO-EU and COSMO-DE models as well as the effects of start-ing time (00 or 12 UTC) on the prediction accuracy. 3. The evaluation of the model behaviour over several years provides additional insight into the impact of changes in the physical parameterisations, data assimilation or nu-merics on the meteorological quantities. The temporal development of the error char-acteristics of some near-surface weather parameters (temperature, dewpoint tem-perature, wind velocity) and of the energy fluxes at the surface will be discussed.

Assessing water resources in Azerbaijan using a local distributed model forced and constrained with global data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bouaziz, Laurène; Hegnauer, Mark; Schellekens, Jaap; Sperna Weiland, Frederiek; ten Velden, Corine

2017-04-01

In many countries, data is scarce, incomplete and often not easily shared. In these cases, global satellite and reanalysis data provide an alternative to assess water resources. To assess water resources in Azerbaijan, a completely distributed and physically based hydrological wflow-sbm model was set-up for the entire Kura basin. We used SRTM elevation data, a locally available river map and one from OpenStreetMap to derive the drainage direction network at the model resolution of approximately 1x1 km. OpenStreetMap data was also used to derive the fraction of paved area per cell to account for the reduced infiltration capacity (c.f. Schellekens et al. 2014). We used the results of a global study to derive root zone capacity based on climate data (Wang-Erlandsson et al., 2016). To account for the variation in vegetation cover over the year, monthly averages of Leaf Area Index, based on MODIS data, were used. For the soil-related parameters, we used global estimates as provided by Dai et al. (2013). This enabled the rapid derivation of a first estimate of parameter values for our hydrological model. Digitized local meteorological observations were scarce and available only for limited time period. Therefore several sources of global meteorological data were evaluated: (1) EU-WATCH global precipitation, temperature and derived potential evaporation for the period 1958-2001 (Harding et al., 2011), (2) WFDEI precipitation, temperature and derived potential evaporation for the period 1979-2014 (by Weedon et al., 2014), (3) MSWEP precipitation (Beck et al., 2016) and (4) local precipitation data from more than 200 stations in the Kura basin were available from the NOAA website for a period up to 1991. The latter, together with data archives from Azerbaijan, were used as a benchmark to evaluate the global precipitation datasets for the overlapping period 1958-1991. By comparing the datasets, we found that monthly mean precipitation of EU-WATCH and WFDEI coincided well with NOAA stations and that MSWEP slightly overestimated precipitation amounts. On a daily basis, there were discrepancies in the peak timing and magnitude between measured precipitation and the global products. A bias between EU-WATCH and WFDEI temperature and potential evaporation was observed and to model the water balance correctly, it was needed to correct EU-WATCH to WFDEI mean monthly values. Overall, the available sources enabled rapid set-up of a hydrological model including the forcing of the model with a relatively good performance to assess water resources in Azerbaijan with a limited calibration effort and allow for a similar set-up anywhere in the world. Timing and quantification of peak volume remains a weakness in global data, making it difficult to be used for some applications (flooding) and for detailed calibration. Selecting and comparing different sources of global meteorological data is important to have a reliable set which improves model performance. - Beck et al., 2016. MSWEP: 3-hourly 0.25° global gridded precipitation (1979-2014) by merging gauge, satellite, and reanalysis data. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss. - Dai Y. et al. ,2013. Development of a China Dataset of Soil Hydraulic Parameters Using Pedotransfer Functions for Land Surface Modeling. Journal of Hydrometeorology - Harding, R. et al., 2011., WATCH: Current knowledge of the Terrestrial global water cycle, J. Hydrometeorol. - Schellekens, J. et al., 2014. Rapid setup of hydrological and hydraulic models using OpenStreetMap and the SRTM derived digital elevation model. Environmental Modelling&Software - Wang-Erlandsson L. et al., 2016. Global Root Zone Storage Capacity from Satellite-Based Evaporation. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences - Weedon, G. et al., 2014. The WFDEI meteorological forcing data set: WATCH Forcing Data methodology applied to ERA-Interim reanalysis data, Water Resources Research.

Determining the Probability of Violating Upper-Level Wind Constraints for the Launch of Minuteman Ill Ballistic Missiles At Vandenberg Air Force Base

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shafer, Jaclyn A.; Brock, Tyler M.

2013-01-01

The 30th Operational Support Squadron Weather Flight (30 OSSWF) provides comprehensive weather services to the space program at Vandenberg Air Force Base (VAFB) in California. One of their responsibilities is to monitor upper-level winds to ensure safe launch operations of the Minuteman Ill ballistic missile. The 30 OSSWF requested the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) analyze VAFB sounding data to determine the probability of violating (PoV) upper-level thresholds for wind speed and shear constraints specific to this launch vehicle, and to develop a graphical user interface (GUI) that will calculate the PoV of each constraint on the day of launch. The AMU suggested also including forecast sounding data from the Rapid Refresh (RAP) model. This would provide further insight for the launch weather officers (LWOs) when determining if a wind constraint violation will occur over the next few hours, and help to improve the overall upper winds forecast on launch day.

Weather Research and Forecasting Model Wind Sensitivity Study at Edwards Air Force Base, CA

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Watson, Leela R.; Bauman, William H., III; Hoeth, Brian

2009-01-01

This abstract describes work that will be done by the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) in assessing the success of different model configurations in predicting "wind cycling" cases at Edwards Air Force Base, CA (EAFB), in which the wind speeds and directions oscillate among towers near the EAFB runway. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model allows users to choose among two dynamical cores - the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) and the Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM). There are also data assimilation analysis packages available for the initialization of the WRF model - the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) and the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS). Having a series of initialization options and WRF cores, as well as many options within each core, creates challenges for local forecasters, such as determining which configuration options are best to address specific forecast concerns. The goal of this project is to assess the different configurations available and determine which configuration will best predict surface wind speed and direction at EAFB.

KSC-08pd1319

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-25

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- At Vandenberg Air Force Base in California, the Delta II first stage is being raised to a vertical position in front of the mobile service tower on Space Launch Complex 2. Once it is vertical, the first stage will be transferred into the tower. The Delta II is the launch vehicle for the OSTM/Jason-2 spacecraft. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Dan Liberotti

KSC-08pd1337

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-30

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- On Space Launch Complex 2 at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California, the second solid rocket motor, or SRM, is being raised to a vertical position. Once vertical, the SRM will be lifted into the mobile service tower and attached to the Delta II first stage inside. The Delta II is the launch vehicle for the OSTM/Jason-2 spacecraft. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Dan Liberotti

KSC-08pd1321

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-25

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- At Vandenberg Air Force Base in California, the Delta II first stage has been raised to a vertical position in front of the mobile service tower on Space Launch Complex 2. Next, the first stage will be transferred into the tower. The Delta II is the launch vehicle for the OSTM/Jason-2 spacecraft. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Dan Liberotti

Building a QC Database of Meteorological Data from NASA KSC and the United States Air Force's Eastern Range

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brenton, J. C.; Barbre, R. E.; Decker, R. K.; Orcutt, J. M.

2018-01-01

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) Natural Environments Branch (EV44) provides atmospheric databases and analysis in support of space vehicle design and day-of-launch operations for NASA and commercial launch vehicle programs launching from the NASA Kennedy Space Center (KSC), co-located on the United States Air Force's Eastern Range (ER) at the Cape Canaveral Air Force Station. The ER complex is one of the most heavily instrumented sites in the United States with over 31 towers measuring various atmospheric parameters on a continuous basis. An inherent challenge with large datasets consists of ensuring erroneous data are removed from databases, and thus excluded from launch vehicle design analyses. EV44 has put forth great effort in developing quality control (QC) procedures for individual meteorological instruments, however no standard QC procedures for all databases currently exists resulting in QC databases that have inconsistencies in variables, development methodologies, and periods of record. The goal of this activity is to use the previous efforts to develop a standardized set of QC procedures from which to build meteorological databases from KSC and the ER, while maintaining open communication with end users from the launch community to develop ways to improve, adapt and grow the QC database. Details of the QC procedures will be described. As the rate of launches increases with additional launch vehicle programs, It is becoming more important that weather databases are continually updated and checked for data quality before use in launch vehicle design and certification analyses.

STRATCOM 8 Data Workshop and supplement

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reed, E. L. (Compiler)

1978-01-01

The STRATCOM-8 effort took place at Holloman Air Force Base and White Sands Missile Range, New Mexico, on September 28-30, 1977. The prime emphasis was on the study of stratospheric photochemistry involving ozone, with secondary objectives including a study of the balloon environment, comparison of independent techniques for the measurement of O3 and NO, and the development of new sensor systems. More than forty sensors were included on the two large balloons, a U-2 aircraft, and several rockets and small balloons, in addition to meteorological balloons and rockets. Most of the systems performed as expected.

Natural environment analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Frost, W.

1985-01-01

The influence of terrain features on wind loading of the space shuttle while on the launch pad, or during early liftoff, was investigated both qualitatively and quantitatively. The climatology and meteorology producing macroscale wind patterns and characteristics for the Vandenburg Air Force Base launch site are described. Field test data are analyzed, and the nature and characteristic of flow disturbances due to the various terrain features, both natural and man-made, are reviewed. The magnitude of these wind loads are estimated. Finally, effects of turbulence are discussed. It is concluded that the influence of complex terrain can create significant wind loading on the vehicle.

SPITFIRE within the MPI Earth system model: Model development and evaluation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lasslop, Gitta; Thonicke, Kirsten; Kloster, Silvia

2014-09-01

Quantification of the role of fire within the Earth system requires an adequate representation of fire as a climate-controlled process within an Earth system model. To be able to address questions on the interaction between fire and the Earth system, we implemented the mechanistic fire model SPITFIRE, in JSBACH, the land surface model of the MPI Earth system model. Here, we document the model implementation as well as model modifications. We evaluate our model results by comparing the simulation to the GFED version 3 satellite-based data set. In addition, we assess the sensitivity of the model to the meteorological forcing and to the spatial variability of a number of fire relevant model parameters. A first comparison of model results with burned area observations showed a strong correlation of the residuals with wind speed. Further analysis revealed that the response of the fire spread to wind speed was too strong for the application on global scale. Therefore, we developed an improved parametrization to account for this effect. The evaluation of the improved model shows that the model is able to capture the global gradients and the seasonality of burned area. Some areas of model-data mismatch can be explained by differences in vegetation cover compared to observations. We achieve benchmarking scores comparable to other state-of-the-art fire models. The global total burned area is sensitive to the meteorological forcing. Adjustment of parameters leads to similar model results for both forcing data sets with respect to spatial and seasonal patterns. This article was corrected on 29 SEP 2014. See the end of the full text for details.

Snow water equivalent monitoring retrieved by assimilating passive microwave observations in a coupled snowpack evolution and microwave emission models over North-Eastern Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Royer, A.; Larue, F.; De Sève, D.; Roy, A.; Vionnet, V.; Picard, G.; Cosme, E.

2017-12-01

Over northern snow-dominated basins, the snow water equivalent (SWE) is of primary interest for spring streamflow forecasting. SWE retrievals from satellite data are still not well resolved, in particular from microwave (MW) measurements, the only type of data sensible to snow mass. Also, the use of snowpack models is challenging due to the large uncertainties in meteorological input forcings. This project aims to improve SWE prediction by assimilation of satellite brightness temperature (TB), without any ground-based observations. The proposed approach is the coupling of a detailed multilayer snowpack model (Crocus) with a MW snow emission model (DMRT-ML). The assimilation scheme is a Sequential Importance Resampling Particle filter, through ensembles of perturbed meteorological forcings according to their respective uncertainties. Crocus simulations driven by operational meteorological forecasts from the Canadian Global Environmental Multiscale model at 10 km spatial resolution were compared to continuous daily SWE measurements over Québec, North-Eastern Canada (56° - 45°N). The results show a mean bias of the maximum SWE overestimated by 16% with variations up to +32%. This observed large variability could lead to dramatic consequences on spring flood forecasts. Results of Crocus-DMRT-ML coupling compared to surface-based TB measurements (at 11, 19 and 37 GHz) show that the Crocus snowpack microstructure described by sticky hard spheres within DMRT has to be scaled by a snow stickiness of 0.18, significantly reducing the overall RMSE of simulated TBs. The ability of assimilation of daily TBs to correct the simulated SWE is first presented through twin experiments with synthetic data, and then with AMSR-2 satellite time series of TBs along the winter taking into account atmospheric and forest canopy interferences (absorption and emission). The differences between TBs at 19-37 GHz and at 11-19 GHz, in vertical polarization, were assimilated. This assimilation test with synthetic data gives a SWE RMSE reduced by a factor of 2 after assimilation. Assimilation of AMSR-2 TBs shows improvement in SWE retrievals compared to continuous in-situ SWE measurements. The accuracy is discussed as a function of boreal forest density and LAI (MODIS-based data), having significant effects.

Combined use of local and global hydrometeorological data with regional and global hydrological models in the Magdalena - Cauca river basin, Colombia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodriguez, Erasmo; Sanchez, Ines; Duque, Nicolas; Lopez, Patricia; Kaune, Alexander; Werner, Micha; Arboleda, Pedro

2017-04-01

The Magdalena Cauca Macrobasin (MCMB) in Colombia, with an area of about 257,000 km2, is the largest and most important water resources system in the country. With almost 80% of the Colombian population (46 million people) settled in the basin, it is the main source of water for demands including human consumption, agriculture, hydropower generation, industrial activities and ecosystems. Despite its importance, the basin has witnessed enormous changes in land-cover and extensive deforestation during the last three decades. To make things more complicated, the MCMB currently lacks a set of tools to support planning and decision making processes at scale of the whole watershed. Considering this, the MCMB has been selected as one of the six different regional case studies in the eartH2Observe research project, in which hydrological and meteorological reanalysis products are being validated for the period 1980-2012. The combined use of the hydrological and meteorological reanalysis data, with local hydrometeorological data (precipitation, temperature and streamflow) provided by the National Hydrometeorological Agency (IDEAM), has given us the opportunity to implement and test three hydrological models (VIC, WFLOW and a Water Balance Model based on the Budyko framework) at the basin scale. Additionally, results from the global models in the eartH2Observe hydrological reanalysis have been used to evaluate their performance against the observed streamflow data. This paper discusses the comparison between streamflow observations and simulations from the global hydrological models forced with the WFDEI data, and regional models forced with a combination of observed and meteorological reanalysis data, in the whole domain of the MCMB. For the three regional models analysed results show good performances for some sub-basins and poor performances for others. This can be due to the smoothing of the precipitation fields, interpolated from point daily rainfall data, the effect of horizontal precipitation (not included in the models) and weaknesses in the models structures; for example the poor performance of the VIC model in base flow dominated basins. In order to improve these simulations a strategy based on a hydrological model ensemble is currently being developed in the case study. Results from the global models, show that these consistently tend to overestimate runoff. This may be due to the coarse resolution used (50 km), biases in the ERA-Interim precipitation forcing, and the different partitioning within the global models of the precipitation into evapotranspiration and runoff. It is expected that within the Tier II hydrological reanalysis, where the models will produce outputs at 25 km resolution, some improvements may be identified.

WRF and WRF-Chem v3.5.1 simulations of meteorology and black carbon concentrations in the Kathmandu Valley

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mues, Andrea; Lauer, Axel; Lupascu, Aurelia; Rupakheti, Maheswar; Kuik, Friderike; Lawrence, Mark G.

2018-06-01

An evaluation of the meteorology simulated using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model for the region of south Asia and Nepal with a focus on the Kathmandu Valley is presented. A particular focus of the model evaluation is placed on meteorological parameters that are highly relevant to air quality such as wind speed and direction, boundary layer height and precipitation. The same model setup is then used for simulations with WRF including chemistry and aerosols (WRF-Chem). A WRF-Chem simulation has been performed using the state-of-the-art emission database, EDGAR HTAP v2.2, which is the Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research of the Joint Research Centre (JRC) of the European Commission, in cooperation with the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (TF HTAP) organized by the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe, along with a sensitivity simulation using observation-based black carbon emission fluxes for the Kathmandu Valley. The WRF-Chem simulations are analyzed in comparison to black carbon measurements in the valley and to each other. The evaluation of the WRF simulation with a horizontal resolution of 3×3 km2 shows that the model is often able to capture important meteorological parameters inside the Kathmandu Valley and the results for most meteorological parameters are well within the range of biases found in other WRF studies especially in mountain areas. But the evaluation results also clearly highlight the difficulties of capturing meteorological parameters in such complex terrain and reproducing subgrid-scale processes with a horizontal resolution of 3×3 km2. The measured black carbon concentrations are typically systematically and strongly underestimated by WRF-Chem. A sensitivity study with improved emissions in the Kathmandu Valley shows significantly reduced biases but also underlines several limitations of such corrections. Further improvements of the model and of the emission data are needed before being able to use the model to robustly assess air pollution mitigation scenarios in the Kathmandu region.

The WACMOS-ET project – Part 1: Tower-scale evaluation of four remote-sensing-based evapotranspiration algorithms

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Michel, D.; Jimenez, C.; Miralles, D. G.

The WAter Cycle Multi-mission Observation Strategy – EvapoTranspiration (WACMOS-ET) project has compiled a forcing data set covering the period 2005–2007 that aims to maximize the exploitation of European Earth Observations data sets for evapotranspiration (ET) estimation. The data set was used to run four established ET algorithms: the Priestley–Taylor Jet Propulsion Laboratory model (PT-JPL), the Penman–Monteith algorithm from the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) evaporation product (PM-MOD), the Surface Energy Balance System (SEBS) and the Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM). In addition, in situ meteorological data from 24 FLUXNET towers were used to force the models, with results from both forcing sets compared tomore » tower-based flux observations. Model performance was assessed on several timescales using both sub-daily and daily forcings. The PT-JPL model and GLEAM provide the best performance for both satellite- and tower-based forcing as well as for the considered temporal resolutions. Simulations using the PM-MOD were mostly underestimated, while the SEBS performance was characterized by a systematic overestimation. In general, all four algorithms produce the best results in wet and moderately wet climate regimes. In dry regimes, the correlation and the absolute agreement with the reference tower ET observations were consistently lower. While ET derived with in situ forcing data agrees best with the tower measurements ( R 2 = 0.67), the agreement of the satellite-based ET estimates is only marginally lower ( R 2 = 0.58). Results also show similar model performance at daily and sub-daily (3-hourly) resolutions. Overall, our validation experiments against in situ measurements indicate that there is no single best-performing algorithm across all biome and forcing types. In conclusion, an extension of the evaluation to a larger selection of 85 towers (model inputs resampled to a common grid to facilitate global estimates) confirmed the original findings.« less

The WACMOS-ET project – Part 1: Tower-scale evaluation of four remote-sensing-based evapotranspiration algorithms

DOE PAGES

Michel, D.; Jimenez, C.; Miralles, D. G.; ...

2016-02-23

The WAter Cycle Multi-mission Observation Strategy – EvapoTranspiration (WACMOS-ET) project has compiled a forcing data set covering the period 2005–2007 that aims to maximize the exploitation of European Earth Observations data sets for evapotranspiration (ET) estimation. The data set was used to run four established ET algorithms: the Priestley–Taylor Jet Propulsion Laboratory model (PT-JPL), the Penman–Monteith algorithm from the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) evaporation product (PM-MOD), the Surface Energy Balance System (SEBS) and the Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM). In addition, in situ meteorological data from 24 FLUXNET towers were used to force the models, with results from both forcing sets compared tomore » tower-based flux observations. Model performance was assessed on several timescales using both sub-daily and daily forcings. The PT-JPL model and GLEAM provide the best performance for both satellite- and tower-based forcing as well as for the considered temporal resolutions. Simulations using the PM-MOD were mostly underestimated, while the SEBS performance was characterized by a systematic overestimation. In general, all four algorithms produce the best results in wet and moderately wet climate regimes. In dry regimes, the correlation and the absolute agreement with the reference tower ET observations were consistently lower. While ET derived with in situ forcing data agrees best with the tower measurements ( R 2 = 0.67), the agreement of the satellite-based ET estimates is only marginally lower ( R 2 = 0.58). Results also show similar model performance at daily and sub-daily (3-hourly) resolutions. Overall, our validation experiments against in situ measurements indicate that there is no single best-performing algorithm across all biome and forcing types. In conclusion, an extension of the evaluation to a larger selection of 85 towers (model inputs resampled to a common grid to facilitate global estimates) confirmed the original findings.« less

Extended-Range High-Resolution Dynamical Downscaling over a Continental-Scale Domain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Husain, S. Z.; Separovic, L.; Yu, W.; Fernig, D.

2014-12-01

High-resolution mesoscale simulations, when applied for downscaling meteorological fields over large spatial domains and for extended time periods, can provide valuable information for many practical application scenarios including the weather-dependent renewable energy industry. In the present study, a strategy has been proposed to dynamically downscale coarse-resolution meteorological fields from Environment Canada's regional analyses for a period of multiple years over the entire Canadian territory. The study demonstrates that a continuous mesoscale simulation over the entire domain is the most suitable approach in this regard. Large-scale deviations in the different meteorological fields pose the biggest challenge for extended-range simulations over continental scale domains, and the enforcement of the lateral boundary conditions is not sufficient to restrict such deviations. A scheme has therefore been developed to spectrally nudge the simulated high-resolution meteorological fields at the different model vertical levels towards those embedded in the coarse-resolution driving fields derived from the regional analyses. A series of experiments were carried out to determine the optimal nudging strategy including the appropriate nudging length scales, nudging vertical profile and temporal relaxation. A forcing strategy based on grid nudging of the different surface fields, including surface temperature, soil-moisture, and snow conditions, towards their expected values obtained from a high-resolution offline surface scheme was also devised to limit any considerable deviation in the evolving surface fields due to extended-range temporal integrations. The study shows that ensuring large-scale atmospheric similarities helps to deliver near-surface statistical scores for temperature, dew point temperature and horizontal wind speed that are better or comparable to the operational regional forecasts issued by Environment Canada. Furthermore, the meteorological fields resulting from the proposed downscaling strategy have significantly improved spatiotemporal variance compared to those from the operational forecasts, and any time series generated from the downscaled fields do not suffer from discontinuities due to switching between the consecutive forecasts.

Ensemble-based flash-flood modelling: Taking into account hydrodynamic parameters and initial soil moisture uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Edouard, Simon; Vincendon, Béatrice; Ducrocq, Véronique

2018-05-01

Intense precipitation events in the Mediterranean often lead to devastating flash floods (FF). FF modelling is affected by several kinds of uncertainties and Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Systems (HEPS) are designed to take those uncertainties into account. The major source of uncertainty comes from rainfall forcing and convective-scale meteorological ensemble prediction systems can manage it for forecasting purpose. But other sources are related to the hydrological modelling part of the HEPS. This study focuses on the uncertainties arising from the hydrological model parameters and initial soil moisture with aim to design an ensemble-based version of an hydrological model dedicated to Mediterranean fast responding rivers simulations, the ISBA-TOP coupled system. The first step consists in identifying the parameters that have the strongest influence on FF simulations by assuming perfect precipitation. A sensitivity study is carried out first using a synthetic framework and then for several real events and several catchments. Perturbation methods varying the most sensitive parameters as well as initial soil moisture allow designing an ensemble-based version of ISBA-TOP. The first results of this system on some real events are presented. The direct perspective of this work will be to drive this ensemble-based version with the members of a convective-scale meteorological ensemble prediction system to design a complete HEPS for FF forecasting.

An Extreme Meteorological Events Analysis For Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) Siting Project at Bangka Island, Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Septiadi, Deni; S, Yarianto Sugeng B.; Sriyana; Anzhar, Kurnia; Suntoko, Hadi

2018-03-01

The potential sources of meteorological phenomena in Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) area of interest are identified and the extreme values of the possible resulting hazards associated which such phenomena are evaluated to derive the appropriate design bases for the NPP. The appropriate design bases shall be determined according to the Nuclear Energy Regulatory Agency (Bapeten) applicable regulations, which presently do not indicate quantitative criteria for purposes of determining the design bases for meteorological hazards. These meteorological investigations are also carried out to evaluate the regional and site specific meteorological parameters which affect the transport and dispersion of radioactive effluents on the environment of the region around the NPP site. The meteorological hazards are to be monitored and assessed periodically over the lifetime of the plant to ensure that consistency with the design assumptions is maintained throughout the full lifetime of the facility.

Revisiting the radionuclide atmospheric dispersion event of the Chernobyl disaster - modelling sensitivity and data assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roustan, Yelva; Duhanyan, Nora; Bocquet, Marc; Winiarek, Victor

2013-04-01

A sensitivity study of the numerical model, as well as, an inverse modelling approach applied to the atmospheric dispersion issues after the Chernobyl disaster are both presented in this paper. On the one hand, the robustness of the source term reconstruction through advanced data assimilation techniques was tested. On the other hand, the classical approaches for sensitivity analysis were enhanced by the use of an optimised forcing field which otherwise is known to be strongly uncertain. The POLYPHEMUS air quality system was used to perform the simulations of radionuclide dispersion. Activity concentrations in air and deposited to the ground of iodine-131, caesium-137 and caesium-134 were considered. The impact of the implemented parameterizations of the physical processes (dry and wet depositions, vertical turbulent diffusion), of the forcing fields (meteorology and source terms) and of the numerical configuration (horizontal resolution) were investigated for the sensitivity study of the model. A four dimensional variational scheme (4D-Var) based on the approximate adjoint of the chemistry transport model was used to invert the source term. The data assimilation is performed with measurements of activity concentrations in air extracted from the Radioactivity Environmental Monitoring (REM) database. For most of the investigated configurations (sensitivity study), the statistics to compare the model results to the field measurements as regards the concentrations in air are clearly improved while using a reconstructed source term. As regards the ground deposited concentrations, an improvement can only be seen in case of satisfactorily modelled episode. Through these studies, the source term and the meteorological fields are proved to have a major impact on the activity concentrations in air. These studies also reinforce the use of reconstructed source term instead of the usual estimated one. A more detailed parameterization of the deposition process seems also to be able to improve the simulation results. For deposited activities the results are more complex probably due to a strong sensitivity to some of the meteorological fields which remain quite uncertain.

Formative Evaluation of a Web-Based Course in Meteorology.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Phelps, Julia; Reynolds, Ross

1999-01-01

Describes the formative-evaluation process for the EuroMET (European Meteorological Education and Training) project, Web-Based university courses in meteorology that were created to address the education and training needs of professional meteorologists and students throughout Europe. Usability and interactive and multimedia elements are…

Catalog of Air Force Weather Technical Documents 1941-2008

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-06-19

provided infrared data to a NASA central readout station. High-resolution infrared data (HRIR) recorded on 70mm film is of photographic quality...Monmouth, New Jersey. Authors represented Army, Navy, and Air Force meteorological activities and their contractors, as well as ESSA, NASA , and... NASA , ESSA, USDA, NCAR, several universities, and an airline. Contents: • “Data Gathering Systems of the 70’s—A Survey,” by J. Giraytys, pp 5-31

Effect of Downscaled Forcings and Soil Texture Properties on Hyperresolution Hydrologic Simulations in a Regional Basin in Northwest Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ko, A.; Mascaro, G.; Vivoni, E. R.

2017-12-01

Hyper-resolution (< 1 km) hydrological modeling is expected to support a range of studies related to the terrestrial water cycle. A critical need for increasing the utility of hyper-resolution modeling is the availability of meteorological forcings and land surface characteristics at high spatial resolution. Unfortunately, in many areas these datasets are only available at coarse (> 10 km) scales. In this study, we address some of the challenges by applying a parallel version of the Triangulated Irregular Network (TIN)-based Real Time Integrated Basin Simulator (tRIBS) to the Rio Sonora Basin (RSB) in northwest Mexico. The RSB is a large, semiarid watershed ( 21,000 km2) characterized by complex topography and a strong seasonality in vegetation conditions, due to the North American monsoon. We conducted simulations at an average spatial resolution of 88 m over a decadal (2004-2013) period using spatially-distributed forcings from remotely-sensed and reanalysis products. Meteorological forcings were derived from the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) at the original resolution of 12 km and were downscaled at 1 km with techniques accounting for terrain effects. Two grids of soil properties were created from different sources, including: (i) CONABIO (Comisión Nacional para el Conocimiento y Uso de la Biodiversidad) at 6 km resolution; and (ii) ISRIC (International Soil Reference Information Centre) at 250 m. Time-varying vegetation parameters were derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) composite products. The model was first calibrated and validated through distributed soil moisture data from a network of 20 soil moisture stations during the monsoon season. Next, hydrologic simulations were conducted with five different combinations of coarse and downscaled forcings and soil properties. Outputs in the different configurations were then compared with independent observations of soil moisture, and with estimates of land surface temperature (1 km, daily) and evapotranspiration (1 km, monthly) from MODIS. This study is expected to support the community involved in hyper-resolution hydrologic modeling by identifying the crucial factors that, if available at higher resolution, lead to the largest improvement of the simulation prognostic capability.

Carbonaceous aerosols and Impacts on regional climate over South Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pathak, B.; Parottil, A.

2017-12-01

A comprehensive assessment on the effects of carbonaceous aerosols over regional climate of South Asia CORDEX Domain is carried out using the ICTP developed Regional climate model version 4 (RegCM 4.4). Five different simulations considering (a) Carbonaceous aerosols with feedback to meteorological field (EXP1), (b) Carbonaceous aerosols without feedback to meteorological field (c) only Black Carbon with feed back to meteorological field (EXP3) and (d) only Black Carbon without feed back to meteorological field (EXP4) and only meteorology simulation (CNTL) are performed. All the five experiments are integrated from 01 January 2008 to 01 January 2012 continuously with a horizontal resolution of 50 km with first one year as spin up time. The simulated meteorology for all the simulations is validated by comparing with observations. The influence of carbonaceous aerosols on Direct Radiative Forcing (DRF) at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) and within the atmosphere (ATM) over the South Asian region with focus on Indian subcontinent is carried out. The contribution of black carbon to the total DRF and its significance is analyzed. Modulation in precipitation and temperature with the aerosol-climate feedback is studied by comparing the meteorological parameters in CNTL with CARB/BC with and without feedback simulations. In general, black carbon is found to reduce the precipitation, wind over the region more strongly than total carbonaceous aerosols. Role of black carbon in warming the surface is investigated by comparing the RegCM simulation considering both biomass burning and anthropogenic emissions with simulations considering only anthropogenic simulations.

A Method for a Multi-Platform Approach to Generate Gridded Surface Evaporation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Badger, A.; Livneh, B.; Small, E. E.; Abolafia-Rosenzweig, R.

2017-12-01

Evapotranspiration is an integral component of the surface water balance. While there are many estimates of evapotranspiration, there are fewer estimates that partition evapotranspiration into evaporation and transpiration components. This study aims to generate a CONUS-scale, observationally-based soil evaporation dataset by using the time difference of surface soil moisture by Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) satellite with adjustments for transpiration and a bottom flux out of the surface layer. In concert with SMAP, the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite, North American Land Data Assimilation Systems (NLDAS) and the Hydrus-1D model are used to fully analyze the surface water balance. A biome specific estimate of the total terrestrial ET is calculated through a variation of the Penman-Monteith equation with NLDAS forcing and NLDAS Noah Model output for meteorological variables. A root density restriction and SMAP-based soil moisture restriction are applied to obtain terrestrial transpiration estimates. By forcing Hydrus-1D with NLDAS meteorology and our terrestrial transpiration estimates, an estimate of the flux between the soil surface and root zone layers (qbot) will dictate the proportion of water that is available for soil evaporation. After constraining transpiration and the bottom flux from the surface layer, we estimate soil evaporation as the residual of the surface water balance. Application of this method at Fluxnet sites shows soil evaporation estimates of approximately 0­3 mm/day and less than ET estimates. Expanding this methodology to produce a gridded product for CONUS, and eventually a global-scale product, will enable a better understanding of water balance processes and contribute a dataset to validate land-surface model's surface flux processes.

Soil Moisture-Atmosphere Feedbacks on Atmospheric Tracers: The Effects of Soil Moisture on Precipitation and Near-Surface Chemistry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tawfik, Ahmed B.

The atmospheric component is described by rapid fluctuations in typical state variables, such as temperature and water vapor, on timescales of hours to days and the land component evolves on daily to yearly timescales. This dissertation examines the connection between soil moisture and atmospheric tracers under varying degrees of soil moisture-atmosphere coupling. Land-atmosphere coupling is defined over the United States using a regional climate model. A newly examined soil moisture-precipitation feedback is identified for winter months extending the previous summer feedback to colder temperature climates. This feedback is driven by the freezing and thawing of soil moisture, leading to coupled land-atmosphere conditions near the freezing line. Soil moisture can also affect the composition of the troposphere through modifying biogenic emissions of isoprene (C5H8). A novel first-order Taylor series decomposition indicates that isoprene emissions are jointly driven by temperature and soil moisture in models. These compounds are important precursors for ozone formation, an air pollutant and a short-lived forcing agent for climate. A mechanistic description of commonly observed relationships between ground-level ozone and meteorology is presented using the concept of soil moisture-temperature coupling regimes. The extent of surface drying was found to be a better predictor of ozone concentrations than temperature or humidity for the Eastern U.S. This relationship is evaluated in a coupled regional chemistry-climate model under several land-atmosphere coupling and isoprene emissions cases. The coupled chemistry-climate model can reproduce the observed soil moisture-temperature coupling pattern, yet modeled ozone is insensitive to changes in meteorology due to the balance between isoprene and the primary atmospheric oxidant, the hydroxyl radical (OH). Overall, this work highlights the importance of soil moisture-atmosphere coupling for previously neglected cold climate regimes, controlling isoprene emissions variability, and providing a processed-based description of observed ozone-meteorology relationships. From the perspective of ozone air quality, the lack of sensitivity of ozone to meteorology suggests a systematic deficiency in chemistry models in high isoprene emission regions. This shortcoming must be addressed to better estimate tropospheric ozone radiative forcing and to understanding how ozone air quality may respond to future warming.

Diurnal and seasonal variations in surface methane at a tropical coastal station: Role of mesoscale meteorology.

PubMed

Kavitha, M; Nair, Prabha R; Girach, I A; Aneesh, S; Sijikumar, S; Renju, R

2018-08-01

In view of the large uncertainties in the methane (CH 4 ) emission estimates and the large spatial gaps in its measurements, studies on near-surface CH 4 on regional basis become highly relevant. This paper presents the first time observational results of a study on the impacts of mesoscale meteorology on the temporal variations of near-surface CH 4 at a tropical coastal station, in India. It is based on the in-situ measurements conducted during January 2014 to August 2016, using an on-line CH 4 analyzer working on the principle of gas chromatography. The diurnal variation shows a daytime low (1898-1925ppbv) and nighttime high (1936-2022ppbv) extending till early morning hours. These changes are closely associated with the mesoscale circulations, namely Sea Breeze (SB) and Land Breeze (LB), as obtained through the meteorological observations, WRF simulations of the circulations and the diurnal variation of boundary layer height as observed by the Microwave Radiometer Profiler. The diurnal enhancement always coincides with the onset of LB. Several cases of different onset timings of LB were examined and results presented. The CH 4 mixing ratio also exhibits significant seasonal patterns being maximum in winter and minimum in pre-monsoon/monsoon with significant inter-annual variations, which is also reflected in diurnal patterns, and are associated with changing synoptic meteorology. This paper also presents an analysis of in-situ measured near-surface CH 4 , column averaged and upper tropospheric CH 4 retrieved by Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) onboard Earth Observing System (EOS)/Aqua which gives insight into the vertical distribution of the CH 4 over the location. An attempt is also made to estimate the instantaneous radiative forcing for the measured CH 4 mixing ratio. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A multi-year data set on aerosol-cloud-precipitation-meteorology interactions for marine stratocumulus clouds.

PubMed

Sorooshian, Armin; MacDonald, Alexander B; Dadashazar, Hossein; Bates, Kelvin H; Coggon, Matthew M; Craven, Jill S; Crosbie, Ewan; Hersey, Scott P; Hodas, Natasha; Lin, Jack J; Negrón Marty, Arnaldo; Maudlin, Lindsay C; Metcalf, Andrew R; Murphy, Shane M; Padró, Luz T; Prabhakar, Gouri; Rissman, Tracey A; Shingler, Taylor; Varutbangkul, Varuntida; Wang, Zhen; Woods, Roy K; Chuang, Patrick Y; Nenes, Athanasios; Jonsson, Haflidi H; Flagan, Richard C; Seinfeld, John H

2018-02-27

Airborne measurements of meteorological, aerosol, and stratocumulus cloud properties have been harmonized from six field campaigns during July-August months between 2005 and 2016 off the California coast. A consistent set of core instruments was deployed on the Center for Interdisciplinary Remotely-Piloted Aircraft Studies Twin Otter for 113 flight days, amounting to 514 flight hours. A unique aspect of the compiled data set is detailed measurements of aerosol microphysical properties (size distribution, composition, bioaerosol detection, hygroscopicity, optical), cloud water composition, and different sampling inlets to distinguish between clear air aerosol, interstitial in-cloud aerosol, and droplet residual particles in cloud. Measurements and data analysis follow documented methods for quality assurance. The data set is suitable for studies associated with aerosol-cloud-precipitation-meteorology-radiation interactions, especially owing to sharp aerosol perturbations from ship traffic and biomass burning. The data set can be used for model initialization and synergistic application with meteorological models and remote sensing data to improve understanding of the very interactions that comprise the largest uncertainty in the effect of anthropogenic emissions on radiative forcing.

A multi-year data set on aerosol-cloud-precipitation-meteorology interactions for marine stratocumulus clouds

PubMed Central

Sorooshian, Armin; MacDonald, Alexander B.; Dadashazar, Hossein; Bates, Kelvin H.; Coggon, Matthew M.; Craven, Jill S.; Crosbie, Ewan; Hersey, Scott P.; Hodas, Natasha; Lin, Jack J.; Negrón Marty, Arnaldo; Maudlin, Lindsay C.; Metcalf, Andrew R.; Murphy, Shane M.; Padró, Luz T.; Prabhakar, Gouri; Rissman, Tracey A.; Shingler, Taylor; Varutbangkul, Varuntida; Wang, Zhen; Woods, Roy K.; Chuang, Patrick Y.; Nenes, Athanasios; Jonsson, Haflidi H.; Flagan, Richard C.; Seinfeld, John H.

2018-01-01

Airborne measurements of meteorological, aerosol, and stratocumulus cloud properties have been harmonized from six field campaigns during July-August months between 2005 and 2016 off the California coast. A consistent set of core instruments was deployed on the Center for Interdisciplinary Remotely-Piloted Aircraft Studies Twin Otter for 113 flight days, amounting to 514 flight hours. A unique aspect of the compiled data set is detailed measurements of aerosol microphysical properties (size distribution, composition, bioaerosol detection, hygroscopicity, optical), cloud water composition, and different sampling inlets to distinguish between clear air aerosol, interstitial in-cloud aerosol, and droplet residual particles in cloud. Measurements and data analysis follow documented methods for quality assurance. The data set is suitable for studies associated with aerosol-cloud-precipitation-meteorology-radiation interactions, especially owing to sharp aerosol perturbations from ship traffic and biomass burning. The data set can be used for model initialization and synergistic application with meteorological models and remote sensing data to improve understanding of the very interactions that comprise the largest uncertainty in the effect of anthropogenic emissions on radiative forcing. PMID:29485627

A multi-year data set on aerosol-cloud-precipitation-meteorology interactions for marine stratocumulus clouds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sorooshian, Armin; MacDonald, Alexander B.; Dadashazar, Hossein; Bates, Kelvin H.; Coggon, Matthew M.; Craven, Jill S.; Crosbie, Ewan; Hersey, Scott P.; Hodas, Natasha; Lin, Jack J.; Negrón Marty, Arnaldo; Maudlin, Lindsay C.; Metcalf, Andrew R.; Murphy, Shane M.; Padró, Luz T.; Prabhakar, Gouri; Rissman, Tracey A.; Shingler, Taylor; Varutbangkul, Varuntida; Wang, Zhen; Woods, Roy K.; Chuang, Patrick Y.; Nenes, Athanasios; Jonsson, Haflidi H.; Flagan, Richard C.; Seinfeld, John H.

2018-02-01

Airborne measurements of meteorological, aerosol, and stratocumulus cloud properties have been harmonized from six field campaigns during July-August months between 2005 and 2016 off the California coast. A consistent set of core instruments was deployed on the Center for Interdisciplinary Remotely-Piloted Aircraft Studies Twin Otter for 113 flight days, amounting to 514 flight hours. A unique aspect of the compiled data set is detailed measurements of aerosol microphysical properties (size distribution, composition, bioaerosol detection, hygroscopicity, optical), cloud water composition, and different sampling inlets to distinguish between clear air aerosol, interstitial in-cloud aerosol, and droplet residual particles in cloud. Measurements and data analysis follow documented methods for quality assurance. The data set is suitable for studies associated with aerosol-cloud-precipitation-meteorology-radiation interactions, especially owing to sharp aerosol perturbations from ship traffic and biomass burning. The data set can be used for model initialization and synergistic application with meteorological models and remote sensing data to improve understanding of the very interactions that comprise the largest uncertainty in the effect of anthropogenic emissions on radiative forcing.

On the predictability of land surface fluxes from meteorological variables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haughton, Ned; Abramowitz, Gab; Pitman, Andy J.

2018-01-01

Previous research has shown that land surface models (LSMs) are performing poorly when compared with relatively simple empirical models over a wide range of metrics and environments. Atmospheric driving data appear to provide information about land surface fluxes that LSMs are not fully utilising. Here, we further quantify the information available in the meteorological forcing data that are used by LSMs for predicting land surface fluxes, by interrogating FLUXNET data, and extending the benchmarking methodology used in previous experiments. We show that substantial performance improvement is possible for empirical models using meteorological data alone, with no explicit vegetation or soil properties, thus setting lower bounds on a priori expectations on LSM performance. The process also identifies key meteorological variables that provide predictive power. We provide an ensemble of empirical benchmarks that are simple to reproduce and provide a range of behaviours and predictive performance, acting as a baseline benchmark set for future studies. We reanalyse previously published LSM simulations and show that there is more diversity between LSMs than previously indicated, although it remains unclear why LSMs are broadly performing so much worse than simple empirical models.

The AFJROTC Program at Hopewell High School

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schultes, Charles R., Jr.

1975-01-01

Describes the textbooks, the curricular, and co-curricular activities in the AFJROTC program at Hopewell High School. Includes a description of a specialized, fourth-year course extension which includes celestial navigation, communicative techniques, computer systems, meteorology, and Air Force Role in National Defense. (MLH)

Applied Meteorology Unit Quarterly Report, Second Quarter FY-13

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bauman, William; Crawford, Winifred; Watson, Leela; Shafer, Jaclyn; Huddleston, Lisa

2013-01-01

The AMU team worked on six tasks for their customers: (1) Ms. Crawford continued work on the objective lightning forecast task for airports in east-central Florida, and began work on developing a dual-Doppler analysis with local Doppler radars, (2) Ms. Shafer continued work for Vandenberg Air Force Base on an automated tool to relate pressure gradients to peak winds, (3) Dr. Huddleston continued work to develop a lightning timing forecast tool for the Kennedy Space Center/Cape Canaveral Air Force Station area, (4) Dr. Bauman continued work on a severe weather forecast tool focused on east-central Florida, (5) Mr. Decker began developing a wind pairs database for the Launch Services Program to use when evaluating upper-level winds for launch vehicles, and (6) Dr. Watson began work to assimilate observational data into the high-resolution model configurations, she created for Wallops Flight Facility and the Eastern Range.

Impact of a variational objective analysis scheme on a regional area numerical model: The Italian Air Force Weather Service experience

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonavita, M.; Torrisi, L.

2005-03-01

A new data assimilation system has been designed and implemented at the National Center for Aeronautic Meteorology and Climatology of the Italian Air Force (CNMCA) in order to improve its operational numerical weather prediction capabilities and provide more accurate guidance to operational forecasters. The system, which is undergoing testing before operational use, is based on an “observation space” version of the 3D-VAR method for the objective analysis component, and on the High Resolution Regional Model (HRM) of the Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) for the prognostic component. Notable features of the system include a completely parallel (MPI+OMP) implementation of the solution of analysis equations by a preconditioned conjugate gradient descent method; correlation functions in spherical geometry with thermal wind constraint between mass and wind field; derivation of the objective analysis parameters from a statistical analysis of the innovation increments.

Skill of a global seasonal ensemble streamflow forecasting system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Candogan Yossef, Naze; Winsemius, Hessel; Weerts, Albrecht; van Beek, Rens; Bierkens, Marc

2013-04-01

Forecasting of water availability and scarcity is a prerequisite for managing the risks and opportunities caused by the inter-annual variability of streamflow. Reliable seasonal streamflow forecasts are necessary to prepare for an appropriate response in disaster relief, management of hydropower reservoirs, water supply, agriculture and navigation. Seasonal hydrological forecasting on a global scale could be valuable especially for developing regions of the world, where effective hydrological forecasting systems are scarce. In this study, we investigate the forecasting skill of the global seasonal streamflow forecasting system FEWS-World, using the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB. FEWS-World has been setup within the European Commission 7th Framework Programme project Global Water Scarcity Information Service (GLOWASIS). Skill is assessed in historical simulation mode as well as retroactive forecasting mode. The assessment in historical simulation mode used a meteorological forcing based on observations from the Climate Research Unit of the University of East Anglia and the ERA-40 reanalysis of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). We assessed the skill of the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB in reproducing past discharge extremes in 20 large rivers of the world. This preliminary assessment concluded that the prospects for seasonal forecasting with PCR-GLOBWB or comparable models are positive. However this assessment did not include actual meteorological forecasts. Thus the meteorological forcing errors were not assessed. Yet, in a forecasting setup, the predictive skill of a hydrological forecasting system is affected by errors due to uncertainty from numerical weather prediction models. For the assessment in retroactive forecasting mode, the model is forced with actual ensemble forecasts from the seasonal forecast archives of ECMWF. Skill is assessed at 78 stations on large river basins across the globe, for all the months of the year and for lead times up to 6 months. The forecasted discharges are compared with observed monthly streamflow records using the ensemble verification measures Brier Skill Score (BSS) and Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS). The eventual goal is to transfer FEWS-World to operational forecasting mode, where the system will use operational seasonal forecasts from ECMWF. The results will be disseminated on the internet, and hopefully provide information that is valuable for users in data and model-poor regions of the world.

High-resolution urban observation network for user-specific meteorological information service in the Seoul Metropolitan Area, South Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Moon-Soo; Park, Sung-Hwa; Chae, Jung-Hoon; Choi, Min-Hyeok; Song, Yunyoung; Kang, Minsoo; Roh, Joon-Woo

2017-04-01

To improve our knowledge of urban meteorology, including those processes applicable to high-resolution meteorological models in the Seoul Metropolitan Area (SMA), the Weather Information Service Engine (WISE) Urban Meteorological Observation System (UMS-Seoul) has been designed and installed. The UMS-Seoul incorporates 14 surface energy balance (EB) systems, 7 surface-based three-dimensional (3-D) meteorological observation systems and applied meteorological (AP) observation systems, and the existing surface-based meteorological observation network. The EB system consists of a radiation balance system, sonic anemometers, infrared CO2/H2O gas analyzers, and many sensors measuring the wind speed and direction, temperature and humidity, precipitation, and air pressure. The EB-produced radiation, meteorological, and turbulence data will be used to quantify the surface EB according to land use and to improve the boundary-layer and surface processes in meteorological models. The 3-D system, composed of a wind lidar, microwave radiometer, aerosol lidar, or ceilometer, produces the cloud height, vertical profiles of backscatter by aerosols, wind speed and direction, temperature, humidity, and liquid water content. It will be used for high-resolution reanalysis data based on observations and for the improvement of the boundary-layer, radiation, and microphysics processes in meteorological models. The AP system includes road weather information, mosquito activity, water quality, and agrometeorological observation instruments. The standardized metadata for networks and stations are documented and renewed periodically to provide a detailed observation environment. The UMS-Seoul data are designed to support real-time acquisition and display and automatically quality check within 10 min from observation. After the quality check, data can be distributed to relevant potential users such as researchers and policy makers. Finally, two case studies demonstrate that the observed data have a great potential to help to understand the boundary-layer structures more deeply, improve the performance of high-resolution meteorological models, and provide useful information customized based on the user demands in the SMA.

Adriatic storm surges and related cross-basin sea-level slope

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Međugorac, Iva; Orlić, Mirko; Janeković, Ivica; Pasarić, Zoran; Pasarić, Miroslava

2018-05-01

Storm surges pose a severe threat to the northernmost cities of the Adriatic coast, with Venice being most prone to flooding. It has been noted that some flooding episodes cause significantly different effects along the eastern and western Adriatic coasts, with indications that the difference is related to cross-basin sea-level slope. The present study aims to determine specific atmospheric conditions under which the slope develops and to explore connection with increased sea level along the two coastlines. The analysis is based on sea-level time series recorded at Venice and Bakar over the 1984-2014 interval, from which 38 most intensive storm-surge episodes were selected, and their meteorological backgrounds (ERA-Interim) were studied. The obtained sea-level extremes were grouped into three categories according to their cross-basin sea-level slope: storm surges that slope strongly westward (W type), those that slope eastward (E type) and ordinary storm surges (O type). Results show that the slope is controlled by wind action only, specifically, by the wind component towards a particular coast and by the cross-basin shear of along-basin wind. Meteorological fields were used to force an oceanographic numerical model in order to confirm the empirically established connection between the atmospheric forcing and the slope. Finally, it has been found that the intensity of storm surges along a particular Adriatic coast is determined by an interplay of sea-level slopes in the along and cross-basin directions.

A Meso-Climatology Study of the High-Resolution Tower Network Over the Florida Spaceport

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Case, Jonathan L.; Bauman, William H., III

2004-01-01

Forecasters at the US Air Force 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) use wind and temperature data from the tower network over the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) to evaluate Launch Commit Criteria and to issue and verify temperature and wind advisories, watches, and warnings for ground operations. The Spaceflight Meteorology Group at the Johnson Space Center in Houston, TX also uses these data when issuing forecasts for shuttle landings at the KSC Shuttle Landing Facility. Systematic biases in these parameters at any of the towers could adversely affect an analysis, forecast, or verification for all of these operations. In addition, substantial geographical variations in temperature and wind speed can occur under specific wind directions. Therefore, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU), operated by ENSCO Inc., was tasked to develop a monthly and hourly climatology of temperatures and winds from the tower network, and identify the geographical variation, tower biases, and the magnitude of those biases. This paper presents a sub-set of results from a nine-year climatology of the KSC/CCAFS tower network, highlighting the geographical variations based on location, month, times of day, and specific wind direction regime. Section 2 provides a description of the tower mesonetwork and instrumentation characteristics. Section 3 presents the methodology used to construct the tower climatology including QC methods and data processing. The results of the tower climatology are presented in Section 4 and Section 5 summarizes the paper.

Quantifying and Modelling the Effect of Cloud Shadows on the Surface Irradiance at Tropical and Midlatitude Forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kivalov, Sergey N.; Fitzjarrald, David R.

2018-02-01

Cloud shadows lead to alternating light and dark periods at the surface, with the most abrupt changes occurring in the presence of low-level forced cumulus clouds. We examine multiyear irradiance time series observed at a research tower in a midlatitude mixed deciduous forest (Harvard Forest, Massachusetts, USA: 42.53{°}N, 72.17{°}W) and one made at a similar tower in a tropical rain forest (Tapajós National Forest, Pará, Brazil: 2.86{°}S, 54.96{°}W). We link the durations of these periods statistically to conventional meteorological reports of sky type and cloud height at the two forests and present a method to synthesize the surface irradiance time series from sky-type information. Four classes of events describing distinct sequential irradiance changes at the transition from cloud shadow and direct sunlight are identified: sharp-to-sharp, slow-to-slow, sharp-to-slow, and slow-to-sharp. Lognormal and the Weibull statistical distributions distinguish among cloudy-sky types. Observers' qualitative reports of `scattered' and `broken' clouds are quantitatively distinguished by a threshold value of the ratio of mean clear to cloudy period durations. Generated synthetic time series based on these statistics adequately simulate the temporal "radiative forcing" linked to sky type. Our results offer a quantitative way to connect the conventional meteorological sky type to the time series of irradiance experienced at the surface.

Impact of aerosols on ice crystal size

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Bin; Liou, Kuo-Nan; Gu, Yu; Jiang, Jonathan H.; Li, Qinbin; Fu, Rong; Huang, Lei; Liu, Xiaohong; Shi, Xiangjun; Su, Hui; He, Cenlin

2018-01-01

The interactions between aerosols and ice clouds represent one of the largest uncertainties in global radiative forcing from pre-industrial time to the present. In particular, the impact of aerosols on ice crystal effective radius (Rei), which is a key parameter determining ice clouds' net radiative effect, is highly uncertain due to limited and conflicting observational evidence. Here we investigate the effects of aerosols on Rei under different meteorological conditions using 9-year satellite observations. We find that the responses of Rei to aerosol loadings are modulated by water vapor amount in conjunction with several other meteorological parameters. While there is a significant negative correlation between Rei and aerosol loading in moist conditions, consistent with the "Twomey effect" for liquid clouds, a strong positive correlation between the two occurs in dry conditions. Simulations based on a cloud parcel model suggest that water vapor modulates the relative importance of different ice nucleation modes, leading to the opposite aerosol impacts between moist and dry conditions. When ice clouds are decomposed into those generated from deep convection and formed in situ, the water vapor modulation remains in effect for both ice cloud types, although the sensitivities of Rei to aerosols differ noticeably between them due to distinct formation mechanisms. The water vapor modulation can largely explain the difference in the responses of Rei to aerosol loadings in various seasons. A proper representation of the water vapor modulation is essential for an accurate estimate of aerosol-cloud radiative forcing produced by ice clouds.

A Large-Scale, High-Resolution Hydrological Model Parameter Data Set for Climate Change Impact Assessment for the Conterminous US

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Oubeidillah, Abdoul A; Kao, Shih-Chieh; Ashfaq, Moetasim

2014-01-01

To extend geographical coverage, refine spatial resolution, and improve modeling efficiency, a computation- and data-intensive effort was conducted to organize a comprehensive hydrologic dataset with post-calibrated model parameters for hydro-climate impact assessment. Several key inputs for hydrologic simulation including meteorologic forcings, soil, land class, vegetation, and elevation were collected from multiple best-available data sources and organized for 2107 hydrologic subbasins (8-digit hydrologic units, HUC8s) in the conterminous United States at refined 1/24 (~4 km) spatial resolution. Using high-performance computing for intensive model calibration, a high-resolution parameter dataset was prepared for the macro-scale Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model. The VICmore » simulation was driven by DAYMET daily meteorological forcing and was calibrated against USGS WaterWatch monthly runoff observations for each HUC8. The results showed that this new parameter dataset may help reasonably simulate runoff at most US HUC8 subbasins. Based on this exhaustive calibration effort, it is now possible to accurately estimate the resources required for further model improvement across the entire conterminous United States. We anticipate that through this hydrologic parameter dataset, the repeated effort of fundamental data processing can be lessened, so that research efforts can emphasize the more challenging task of assessing climate change impacts. The pre-organized model parameter dataset will be provided to interested parties to support further hydro-climate impact assessment.« less

The Aggregate Description of Semi-Arid Vegetation with Precipitation-Generated Soil Moisture Heterogeneity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

White, Cary B.; Houser, Paul R.; Arain, Altaf M.; Yang, Zong-Liang; Syed, Kamran; Shuttleworth, W. James

1997-01-01

Meteorological measurements in the Walnut Gulch catchment in Arizona were used to synthesize a distributed, hourly-average time series of data across a 26.9 by 12.5 km area with a grid resolution of 480 m for a continuous 18-month period which included two seasons of monsoonal rainfall. Coupled surface-atmosphere model runs established the acceptability (for modelling purposes) of assuming uniformity in all meteorological variables other than rainfall. Rainfall was interpolated onto the grid from an array of 82 recording rain gauges. These meteorological data were used as forcing variables for an equivalent array of stand-alone Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS) models to describe the evolution of soil moisture and surface energy fluxes in response to the prevalent, heterogeneous pattern of convective precipitation. The calculated area-average behaviour was compared with that given by a single aggregate BATS simulation forced with area-average meteorological data. Heterogeneous rainfall gives rise to significant but partly compensating differences in the transpiration and the intercepted rainfall components of total evaporation during rain storms. However, the calculated area-average surface energy fluxes given by the two simulations in rain-free conditions with strong heterogeneity in soil moisture were always close to identical, a result which is independent of whether default or site-specific vegetation and soil parameters were used. Because the spatial variability in soil moisture throughout the catchment has the same order of magnitude as the amount of rain failing in a typical convective storm (commonly 10% of the vegetation's root zone saturation) in a semi-arid environment, non-linearitv in the relationship between transpiration and the soil moisture available to the vegetation has limited influence on area-average surface fluxes.

Building a Quality Controlled Database of Meteorological Data from NASA Kennedy Space Center and the United States Air Force's Eastern Range

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brenton, James C.; Barbre. Robert E., Jr.; Decker, Ryan K.; Orcutt, John M.

2018-01-01

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) Natural Environments Branch (EV44) has provided atmospheric databases and analysis in support of space vehicle design and day-of-launch operations for NASA and commercial launch vehicle programs launching from the NASA Kennedy Space Center (KSC), co-located on the United States Air Force's Eastern Range (ER) at the Cape Canaveral Air Force Station. The ER complex is one of the most heavily instrumented sites in the United States with over 31 towers measuring various atmospheric parameters on a continuous basis. An inherent challenge with large sets of data consists of ensuring erroneous data is removed from databases, and thus excluded from launch vehicle design analyses. EV44 has put forth great effort in developing quality control (QC) procedures for individual meteorological instruments, however no standard QC procedures for all databases currently exists resulting in QC databases that have inconsistencies in variables, methodologies, and periods of record. The goal of this activity is to use the previous efforts by EV44 to develop a standardized set of QC procedures from which to build meteorological databases from KSC and the ER, while maintaining open communication with end users from the launch community to develop ways to improve, adapt and grow the QC database. Details of the QC procedures will be described. As the rate of launches increases with additional launch vehicle programs, it is becoming more important that weather databases are continually updated and checked for data quality before use in launch vehicle design and certification analyses.

Mesoscale numerical modeling of meteorological events in a strong topographic gradient in the northeastern part of Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pineda-Martinez, Luis F.; Carbajal, Noel

2009-08-01

A series of numerical experiments were carried out to study the effect of meteorological events such as warm and cold air masses on climatic features and variability of a understudied region with strong topographic gradients in the northeastern part of Mexico. We applied the mesoscale model MM5. We investigated the influence of soil moisture availability in the performance of the model under two representative events for winter and summer. The results showed that a better resolution in land use cover improved the agreement among observed and calculated data. The topography induces atmospheric circulation patterns that determine the spatial distribution of climate and seasonal behavior. The numerical experiments reveal regions favorable to forced convection on the eastern side of the mountain chains Eastern Sierra Madre and Sierra de Alvarez. These processes affect the vertical and horizontal structure of the meteorological variables along the topographic gradient.

Meteorological Support Interface Control Working Group (MSICWG) Instrumentation, Data Format, and Networks Document

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brenton, James; Roberts, Barry C.

2017-01-01

The purpose of this document is to provide an overview of instrumentation discussed at the Meteorological Interface Control Working Group (MSICWG), a reference for data formats currently used by members of the group, a summary of proposed formats for future use by the group, an overview of the data networks of the group's members. This document will be updated as new systems are introduced, old systems are retired, and when the MSICWG community necessitates a change to the formats. The MSICWG consists of personnel from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Kennedy Space Center (KSC), NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC), NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Weather Service Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG), and the United States Air Force (USAF) 45th Space Wing and Weather Squadron. The purpose of the group is to coordinate the distribution of weather related data to support NASA space launch related activities.

Convective Aggregation, Climate Sensitivity, and the Importance of Radiation Physics in Weather and Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Emanuel, K.

2015-12-01

Since the revolutionary work of Vilhelm Bjerknes, Jule Charney, and Eric Eady, geophysical fluid dynamics has dominated weather research and continues to play an important in climate dynamics. Although the physics of radiative transfer is central to understanding climate, it has played a far smaller role in weather research and is given only rudimentary attention in most educational programs in meteorology. Yet key contemporary problems in atmospheric science, such as the Madden-Julian Oscillation and the self-aggregation of moist convection, do not appear to have been solved by approaches based strictly on fluid dynamics and moist adiabatic thermodynamics. Here I will argue that many outstanding problems in meteorology and climate science involve a nontrivial coupling of circulation and radiation physics. In particular, the phenomenon of self-aggregation of moist convection depends on the interaction of radiation with time-varying water vapor and clouds, with strong implications for such diverse problems as the Madden-Julian Oscillation, tropical cyclones, and the relative insensitivity of tropical climate to radiative forcing. This argues for an augmentation of radiative transfer physics in graduate curricula in atmospheric sciences.

What are the governing processes during low-flows in a chalk catchment?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lubega Musuuza, Jude; Coxon, Gemma; Hutton, Chris; Howden, Nicholas; Woods, Ross; Freer, Jim; Wagener, Thorsten

2016-04-01

Low flows are important because they lead to the prioritisation of different consumptive water usages, imposition of restrictions and bans, raising of water tariffs and higher production costs to industry. The partitioning of precipitation into evaporation, storage and runoff depends on the local variability in meteorological variables and site-specific characteristics e.g., topography, soils and vegetation. The response of chalk catchments to meteorological forcing especially precipitation is of particular interest because of the preferential flow through the weathered formation. This makes the observed stream discharge groundwater-dominated and hence, out of phase with precipitation. One relevant question is how sensitive the low flow characteristics of such a chalk catchment is to changes in climate and land use. It is thus important to understand all the factors that control low stream discharge periods. In this study we present the results from numerical sensitivity analysis experiments performed with a detailed physically-based model on the Kennet, a sub-catchment of the River Thames, in the UK during the historical drought years of the 1970's.

Update to the Lightning Probability Forecast Equations at Kennedy Space Center/Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Florida

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lambert, Winifred; Roeder, William

2007-01-01

This conference presentation describes the improvement of a set of lightning probability forecast equations that are used by the 45th Weather Squadron forecasters for their daily 1100 UTC (0700 EDT) weather briefing during the warm season months of May-September. This information is used for general scheduling of operations at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and Kennedy Space Center. Forecasters at the Spaceflight Meteorology Group also make thunderstorm forecasts during Shuttle flight operations. Five modifications were made by the Applied Meteorology Unit: increased the period of record from 15 to 17 years, changed the method of calculating the flow regime of the day, calculated a new optimal layer relative humidity, used a new smoothing technique for the daily climatology, and used a new valid area. The test results indicated that the modified equations showed and increase in skill over the current equations, good reliability, and an ability to distinguish between lightning and non-lightning days.

Update to the Lightning Probability Forecast Equations at Kennedy Space Center/Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Florida

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lambert, Winifred; Roeder, William

2007-01-01

This conference presentation describes the improvement of a set of lightning probability forecast equations that are used by the 45th Weather Squadron forecasters for their daily 1100 UTC (0700 EDT) weather briefing during the warm season months of May- September. This information is used for general scheduling of operations at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and Kennedy Space Center. Forecasters at the Spaceflight Meteorology Group also make thunderstorm forecasts during Shuttle flight operations. Five modifications were made by the Applied Meteorology Unit: increased the period of record from 15 to 17 years, changed the method of calculating the flow regime of the day, calculated a new optimal layer relative humidity, used a new smoothing technique for the daily climatology, and used a new valid area. The test results indicated that the modified equations showed and increase in skill over the current equations, good reliability, and an ability to distinguish between lightning and non-lightning days.

Update to the Objective Lightning Probability Forecast Tool in Use at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Florida

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lambert, Winifred; Roeder, William

2008-01-01

This conference presentation describes the improvement of a set of lightning probability forecast equations that are used by the 45th Weather Squadron forecasters for their daily 1100 UTC (0700 EDT) weather briefing during the warm season months of May-September. This information is used for general scheduling of operations at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and Kennedy Space Center. Forecasters at the Spaceflight Meteorology Group also make thunderstorm forecasts during Shuttle flight operations. Five modifications were made by the Applied Meteorology Unit: increased the period of record from 15 to 17 years, changed the method of calculating the flow regime of the day, calculated a new optimal layer relative humidity, used a new smoothing technique for the daily climatology, and used a new valid area. The test results indicated that the modified equaitions showed and increase in skill over the current equations, good reliability, and an ability to distinguish between lightning and non-lightning days.

Update to the Objective Lightning Probability Forecast Tool in use at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Florida

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lambert, Winifred; Roeder, William

2013-01-01

This conference poster describes the improvement of a set of lightning probability forecast equations that are used by the 45th Weather Squadron forecasters for their daily 1100 UTC (0700 EDT) weather briefing during the warm season months of May-September. This information is used for general scheduling of operations at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and Kennedy Space Center. Forecasters at the Spaceflight Meteorology Group also make thunderstorm forecasts during Shuttle flight operations. Five modifications were made by the Applied Meteorology Unit: increased the period of record from 15 to 17 years, changed the method of calculating the flow regime of the day, calculated a new optimal layer relative humidity, used a new smoothing technique for the daily climatology, and used a new valid area. The test results indicated that the modified equations showed and increase in skill over the current equations, good reliability and an ability to distinguish between lightning and non-lightning days.

The impact of snow and glaciers on meteorological variables in the Khumbu Valley, Nepalese Himalaya.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Potter, E.; Orr, A.; Willis, I.

2017-12-01

Previous observational studies have suggested that snow and glaciers have a big impact on local meteorological variables in the Himalayas, in particular affecting near surface temperature and the localised wind system. Understanding the impact of changing surface conditions on these systems and is crucial in improving future predictions of glacier melt and precipitation in the Himalayas. However, the mechanisms that control the local meteorology remain poorly understood due to the lack of in-situ data and detailed modelling studies. To investigate these mechanisms, we run the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model at kilometre scale resolution for one month during the monsoon over the Khumbu Valley, Nepalese Himalaya. The model is run with and without snow and glacier coverage at the surface. The impact of adding debris cover into the model is also investigated. In the control run with snow and ice, thermally-driven near-surface winds are found to travel up valley during the day except over the glacier slopes. When the snow and ice is removed from the model, the up valley winds extend over the entire slope. Removal of the snow and ice also results in changes to cloud cover and hydrometeors. A momentum budget approach is used to fully understand the mechanisms that maintain the localised wind system, e.g. to determine the contributions from local forcing or synoptic forcing.

Priority of a Hesitant Fuzzy Linguistic Preference Relation with a Normal Distribution in Meteorological Disaster Risk Assessment.

PubMed

Wang, Lihong; Gong, Zaiwu

2017-10-10

As meteorological disaster systems are large complex systems, disaster reduction programs must be based on risk analysis. Consequently, judgment by an expert based on his or her experience (also known as qualitative evaluation) is an important link in meteorological disaster risk assessment. In some complex and non-procedural meteorological disaster risk assessments, a hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation (HFLPR) is often used to deal with a situation in which experts may be hesitant while providing preference information of a pairwise comparison of alternatives, that is, the degree of preference of one alternative over another. This study explores hesitation from the perspective of statistical distributions, and obtains an optimal ranking of an HFLPR based on chance-restricted programming, which provides a new approach for hesitant fuzzy optimisation of decision-making in meteorological disaster risk assessments.

Statistical analysis of flight times for space shuttle ferry flights

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Graves, M. E.; Perlmutter, M.

1974-01-01

Markov chain and Monte Carlo analysis techniques are applied to the simulated Space Shuttle Orbiter Ferry flights to obtain statistical distributions of flight time duration between Edwards Air Force Base and Kennedy Space Center. The two methods are compared, and are found to be in excellent agreement. The flights are subjected to certain operational and meteorological requirements, or constraints, which cause eastbound and westbound trips to yield different results. Persistence of events theory is applied to the occurrence of inclement conditions to find their effect upon the statistical flight time distribution. In a sensitivity test, some of the constraints are varied to observe the corresponding changes in the results.

Mapping near-surface air temperature, pressure, relative humidity and wind speed over Mainland China with high spatiotemporal resolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Tao; Zheng, Xiaogu; Dai, Yongjiu; Yang, Chi; Chen, Zhuoqi; Zhang, Shupeng; Wu, Guocan; Wang, Zhonglei; Huang, Chengcheng; Shen, Yan; Liao, Rongwei

2014-09-01

As part of a joint effort to construct an atmospheric forcing dataset for mainland China with high spatiotemporal resolution, a new approach is proposed to construct gridded near-surface temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and surface pressure with a resolution of 1 km×1 km. The approach comprises two steps: (1) fit a partial thin-plate smoothing spline with orography and reanalysis data as explanatory variables to ground-based observations for estimating a trend surface; (2) apply a simple kriging procedure to the residual for trend surface correction. The proposed approach is applied to observations collected at approximately 700 stations over mainland China. The generated forcing fields are compared with the corresponding components of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System Reanalysis dataset and the Princeton meteorological forcing dataset. The comparison shows that, both within the station network and within the resolutions of the two gridded datasets, the interpolation errors of the proposed approach are markedly smaller than the two gridded datasets.

Optimal Interpolation scheme to generate reference crop evapotranspiration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tomas-Burguera, Miquel; Beguería, Santiago; Vicente-Serrano, Sergio; Maneta, Marco

2018-05-01

We used an Optimal Interpolation (OI) scheme to generate a reference crop evapotranspiration (ETo) grid, forcing meteorological variables, and their respective error variance in the Iberian Peninsula for the period 1989-2011. To perform the OI we used observational data from the Spanish Meteorological Agency (AEMET) and outputs from a physically-based climate model. To compute ETo we used five OI schemes to generate grids for the five observed climate variables necessary to compute ETo using the FAO-recommended form of the Penman-Monteith equation (FAO-PM). The granularity of the resulting grids are less sensitive to variations in the density and distribution of the observational network than those generated by other interpolation methods. This is because our implementation of the OI method uses a physically-based climate model as prior background information about the spatial distribution of the climatic variables, which is critical for under-observed regions. This provides temporal consistency in the spatial variability of the climatic fields. We also show that increases in the density and improvements in the distribution of the observational network reduces substantially the uncertainty of the climatic and ETo estimates. Finally, a sensitivity analysis of observational uncertainties and network densification suggests the existence of a trade-off between quantity and quality of observations.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Patnaik, P. C.

The SIGMET mesoscale meteorology simulation code represents an extension, in terms of physical modelling detail and numerical approach, of the work of Anthes (1972) and Anthes and Warner (1974). The code utilizes a finite difference technique to solve the so-called primitive equations which describe transient flow in the atmosphere. The SIGMET modelling contains all of the physics required to simulate the time dependent meteorology of a region with description of both the planetary boundary layer and upper level flow as they are affected by synoptic forcing and complex terrain. The mathematical formulation of the SIGMET model and the various physicalmore » effects incorporated into it are summarized.« less

The evaluation of ASOS for the Kennedy Space Center's Shuttle Landing Facility

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yersavich, Ann; Wheeler, Mark; Taylor, Gregory; Schumann, Robin; Manobianco, John

1994-01-01

This report documents the Applied Meteorology Unit's (AMU) evaluation of the effectiveness and utility of the Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) in terms of spaceflight operations and user requirements. In particular, the evaluation determines which of the Shuttle Landing Facility (SLF) observation requirements can be satisfied by ASOS. This report also includes a summary of ASOS' background, current configuration and specifications, system performance, and the possible concepts of operations for use of ASOS at the SLF. This evaluation stems from a desire by the Air Force to determine if ASOS units could be used to reduce the cost of SLF meteorological observations.

KSC-02pd1860

NASA Image and Video Library

2002-12-05

KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. - At Weather Station A, Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Judy Kelley, supervisor of Meteorology Operations, and Stephen Ezell, meteorological systems operator, get ready to release a weather balloon. Such balloons are released twice a day. The package at the bottom is a radio sonde that collects temperature and humidity data as the balloon rises. The data is released to agencies nationwide, including the 45th Space Wing, which uses the data for its daily weather reports. The weather station provides additional data to NASA for launches -- releasing 12 balloons in eight hours prior to liftoff - and landings - releasing 5 balloons in six and a half hours before expected touchdown.

Spatial Modeling for Resources Framework (SMRF): A modular framework for developing spatial forcing data in mountainous terrain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Havens, S.; Marks, D. G.; Kormos, P.; Hedrick, A. R.; Johnson, M.; Robertson, M.; Sandusky, M.

2017-12-01

In the Western US, operational water supply managers rely on statistical techniques to forecast the volume of water left to enter the reservoirs. As the climate changes and the demand increases for stored water utilized for irrigation, flood control, power generation, and ecosystem services, water managers have begun to move from statistical techniques towards using physically based models. To assist with the transition, a new open source framework was developed, the Spatial Modeling for Resources Framework (SMRF), to automate and simplify the most common forcing data distribution methods. SMRF is computationally efficient and can be implemented for both research and operational applications. Currently, SMRF is able to generate all of the forcing data required to run physically based snow or hydrologic models at 50-100 m resolution over regions of 500-10,000 km2, and has been successfully applied in real time and historical applications for the Boise River Basin in Idaho, USA, the Tuolumne River Basin and San Joaquin in California, USA, and Reynolds Creek Experimental Watershed in Idaho, USA. These applications use meteorological station measurements and numerical weather prediction model outputs as input data. SMRF has significantly streamlined the modeling workflow, decreased model set up time from weeks to days, and made near real-time application of physics-based snow and hydrologic models possible.

Meteorology Assessment of Historic Rainfall for Los Alamos During September 2013

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bruggeman, David Alan; Dewart, Jean Marie

2016-02-12

DOE Order 420.1, Facility Safety, requires that site natural phenomena hazards be evaluated every 10 years to support the design of nuclear facilities. The evaluation requires calculating return period rainfall to determine roof loading requirements and flooding potential based on our on-site rainfall measurements. The return period rainfall calculations are done based on statistical techniques and not site-specific meteorology. This and future studies analyze the meteorological factors that produce the significant rainfall events. These studies provide the meteorology context of the return period rainfall events.

Effects of different regional climate model resolution and forcing scales on projected hydrologic changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mendoza, Pablo A.; Mizukami, Naoki; Ikeda, Kyoko; Clark, Martyn P.; Gutmann, Ethan D.; Arnold, Jeffrey R.; Brekke, Levi D.; Rajagopalan, Balaji

2016-10-01

We examine the effects of regional climate model (RCM) horizontal resolution and forcing scaling (i.e., spatial aggregation of meteorological datasets) on the portrayal of climate change impacts. Specifically, we assess how the above decisions affect: (i) historical simulation of signature measures of hydrologic behavior, and (ii) projected changes in terms of annual water balance and hydrologic signature measures. To this end, we conduct our study in three catchments located in the headwaters of the Colorado River basin. Meteorological forcings for current and a future climate projection are obtained at three spatial resolutions (4-, 12- and 36-km) from dynamical downscaling with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) regional climate model, and hydrologic changes are computed using four different hydrologic model structures. These projected changes are compared to those obtained from running hydrologic simulations with current and future 4-km WRF climate outputs re-scaled to 12- and 36-km. The results show that the horizontal resolution of WRF simulations heavily affects basin-averaged precipitation amounts, propagating into large differences in simulated signature measures across model structures. The implications of re-scaled forcing datasets on historical performance were primarily observed on simulated runoff seasonality. We also found that the effects of WRF grid resolution on projected changes in mean annual runoff and evapotranspiration may be larger than the effects of hydrologic model choice, which surpasses the effects from re-scaled forcings. Scaling effects on projected variations in hydrologic signature measures were found to be generally smaller than those coming from WRF resolution; however, forcing aggregation in many cases reversed the direction of projected changes in hydrologic behavior.

Operational Reconnaissance: Identifying the Right Problems in a Complex World

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-05-23

about the activities and resources of an enemy or rival, or to secure data concerning the meteorological , hydrographic, or geographic characteristics of...Information. Kansas City, KS: Hudson -Kimberly Publishing Co., 1896. War Department. Field Manual (FM) 1-20, Army Air Force Field Manual, Tactics and

Severe Weather Forecast Decision Aid

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bauman, William H., III; Wheeler, Mark

2005-01-01

The Applied Meteorology Unit developed a forecast tool that provides an assessment of the likelihood of local convective severe weather for the day in order to enhance protection of personnel and material assets of the 45th Space Wing Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS), and Kennedy Space Center (KSC).

Defense Meteorological Satellite Program - Special Sensor J5 (SSJ5) Sensor Number 16 (SN16) Calibration Report

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-07-18

Research Laboratory Space Vehicles Directorate 3550 Aberdeen Avenue SE Kirtland AFB, NM 87117-5776 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NUMBER AFRL -RV...Satellite Program Space Weather Sensors (1 Dec 2000 – 30 Nov 2014), AFRL -RV-PS-TR-2016-0053, Air Force Research Laboratory, Kirtland AFB, NM, Jan 2015. [2...Archive Listing (1982-2013) and File Formats Descriptions, AFRL -RV-PR-TR-2014-0174, Air Force Research Laboratory, Kirtland AFB, NM, Aug 2014. [3

Collaborative development of land use change scenarios for analysing hydro-meteorological risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malek, Žiga; Glade, Thomas

2015-04-01

Simulating future land use changes remains a difficult task, due to uncontrollable and uncertain driving forces of change. Scenario development emerged as a tool to address these limitations. Scenarios offer the exploration of possible futures and environmental consequences, and enable the analysis of possible decisions. Therefore, there is increasing interest of both decision makers and researchers to apply scenarios when studying future land use changes and their consequences. The uncertainties related to generating land use change scenarios are among others defined by the accuracy of data, identification and quantification of driving forces, and the relation between expected future changes and the corresponding spatial pattern. To address the issue of data and intangible driving forces, several studies have applied collaborative, participatory techniques when developing future scenarios. The involvement of stakeholders can lead to incorporating a broader spectrum of professional values and experience. Moreover, stakeholders can help to provide missing data, improve detail, uncover mistakes, and offer alternatives. Thus, collaborative scenarios can be considered as more reliable and relevant. Collaborative scenario development has been applied to study a variety of issues in environmental sciences on different spatial and temporal scales. Still, these participatory approaches are rarely spatially explicit, making them difficult to apply when analysing changes to hydro-meteorological risk on a local scale. Spatial explicitness is needed to identify potentially critical areas of land use change, leading to locations where the risk might increase. In order to allocate collaboratively developed scenarios of land change, we combined participatory modeling with geosimulation in a multi-step scenario generation framework. We propose a framework able to develop scenarios that are plausible, can overcome data inaccessibility, address intangible and external driving forces of land change, and is transferable to other case study areas with different land use change processes and consequences. The framework starts with the involvement of stakeholders where driving forces of land use change are being studied by performing interviews and group discussions. In order to bridge the gap between qualitative methods and conventional geospatial techniques, we applied cognitive mapping and the Drivers-Pressures-State-Impact and Response framework (DPSIR) to develop a conceptual land use change model. This was later transformed into a spatially explicit land use change model based on remote sensing data, GIS and cellular automata spatial allocation. The methodology was developed and applied in a study area in the eastern Italian Alps, where the uncertainties regarding future urban expansion are high. Later, we transferred it to a study area in the Romanian Carpathians, where the identified prevailing process of land use change is deforestation. Both areas are subject to hydro-meteorological risk, posing a need for the analysis of the possible future spatial pattern and locations of land use change. The resulting scenarios enabled us, to point at identifying hot-spots of land use change, serving as a possible input for a risk assessment.

Sensitivity of aerosol indirect forcing and autoconversion to cloud droplet parameterization: an assessment with the NASA Global Modeling Initiative.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sotiropoulou, R. P.; Meshkhidze, N.; Nenes, A.

2006-12-01

The aerosol indirect forcing is one of the largest sources of uncertainty in assessments of anthropogenic climate change [IPCC, 2001]. Much of this uncertainty arises from the approach used for linking cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC) to precursor aerosol. Global Climate Models (GCM) use a wide range of cloud droplet activation mechanisms ranging from empirical [Boucher and Lohmann, 1995] to detailed physically- based formulations [e.g., Abdul-Razzak and Ghan, 2000; Fountoukis and Nenes, 2005]. The objective of this study is to assess the uncertainties in indirect forcing and autoconversion of cloud water to rain caused by the application of different cloud droplet parameterization mechanisms; this is an important step towards constraining the aerosol indirect effects (AIE). Here we estimate the uncertainty in indirect forcing and autoconversion rate using the NASA Global Model Initiative (GMI). The GMI allows easy interchange of meteorological fields, chemical mechanisms and the aerosol microphysical packages. Therefore, it is an ideal tool for assessing the effect of different parameters on aerosol indirect forcing. The aerosol module includes primary emissions, chemical production of sulfate in clear air and in-cloud aqueous phase, gravitational sedimentation, dry deposition, wet scavenging in and below clouds, and hygroscopic growth. Model inputs include SO2 (fossil fuel and natural), black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC), mineral dust and sea salt. The meteorological data used in this work were taken from the NASA Data Assimilation Office (DAO) and two different GCMs: the NASA GEOS4 finite volume GCM (FVGCM) and the Goddard Institute for Space Studies version II' (GISS II') GCM. Simulations were carried out for "present day" and "preindustrial" emissions using different meteorological fields (i.e. DAO, FVGCM, GISS II'); cloud droplet number concentration is computed from the correlations of Boucher and Lohmann [1995], Abdul-Razzak and Ghan [2000], Feingold and Heymsfield [1992], Fountoukis and Nenes [2005] and Segal and Khain [2006]. Computed CDNC is used to calculate the cloud optical depth, the autoconversion rate and the mean top-of-the-atmosphere (TOA) short-wave radiative forcing using modified FAST-J algorithm [Meshkhidze et al., 2006]. Autoconversion of cloud water to precipitation is parameterized following the formulation of Khairoutdinov and Kogan [2000]. References Abdul-Razzak, H., and S. J. Ghan (2000), J. Geophys. Res., 105, 6837-6844. Boucher, O., and U. Lohmann (1995), Tellus, Ser. B, 47, 281- 300. Feingold, G. and A. Heymsfield (1992), J. Atmos. Sci., 49, 2325-2342. Fountoukis, C., and A. Nenes (2005), J. Geophys. Res., 110, D11212, doi:10.1029/ 2004JD005591. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - IPCC (2001), Climate Change, The Scientific Basis, Cambridge University Press, UK. Khairoutdinov, M. and Y. Kogan (2000), Mon. Weather Rev., 128 (1), 229-243. Meshkhidze, N., A Nenes, J. Kouatchou, B. Das and J. Rodriguez, 7th International Aerosol Conference, American Association for Aerosol Research (IAC 2006), St. Paul, Minnesota, October 2006 Nenes, A., and J. H. Seinfeld (2003), J. Geophys. Res., 108, 4415, doi:10.1029/ 2002JD002911. Segal, Y., and A. Khain (2006), J. Geophys. Res., 111, D15204, doi:10.1029/2005JD006561.

What is the sensitivity of the mineral dust cycle at the regional scale to surface wind speed? First insights from the DRUMS project.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bouet, Christel; Siour, Guillaume; Poulet, David; Bergametti, Gilles; Laurent, Benoit; Brocheton, Fabien; Forêt, Gilles; Xu, Yiwen; Marticorena, Béatrice

2017-04-01

Modelling of the mineral dust cycle is still a challenging issue both at the global and regional scales: during the last decade, several exercises of model intercomparison highlighted the wide variability of the existing dust models to estimate dust emission fluxes and atmospheric load at both scales. For instance, within the framework of the international AEROCOM Project (http://aerocom.met.no/), 15 different global dust models provide a range of possible dust emission fluxes from 400 to 2200 Tg yr-1 for North Africa and from 26 to 526 Tg yr-1 for the Middle East, i.e. still a factor of 5 and 20 respectively (Huneeus et al., 2011). Whatever the scale, a critical aspect for any dust model is the sensitivity to the meteorological fields used to compute dust emission fluxes (external forcing or simulated by the coupled meteorological or climatic model). Indeed, the intensity of dust emission varies as a power 3 of the surface wind speed, and the number of dust emission events is the number of times the surface wind speed exceeds the wind erosion threshold. As a result, the simulations of dust emissions are extremely sensitive to the way the surface wind speeds are accounted for both in global and regional models. In this context, the aim of the DRUMS (DeseRt dUst Modeling: performance and Sensitivity evaluation) project was to investigate the sensitivity of a regional dust model (CHIMERE) to this parameter. This sensitivity study was conducted for 3 years from 2006 to 2008 over the North of Africa (45°N-0°N; 45°W-55°E), where dust emissions are the most intense. Emission fluxes can be simulated there with the most relevant data set of surface properties controlling dust emissions and accounting for the heterogeneity of land surfaces (surface roughness, soil size distribution and texture) of desert regions (Laurent et al., 2008). Meteorological products (forecasts and re-analysis) provided by the most recognized international meteorological centres (US NCEP and ECMWF), and thus the most widely used for the simulations of the mineral dust cycle, were tested. In addition, the benefit provided by the use of the WRF model to downscale the meteorological forcing was evaluated. The estimation of the performance of the CHIMERE model forced by the different meteorological fields was conducted using a unique validation data set compiled during the project by analysing and evaluating (i) the large number of experimental data resulting from the AMMA (African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis) field campaigns, (ii) long-term aerosol monitoring over West Africa (Sahelian Dust Transect) and downwind the Sahara/Sahel region (AERONET), and (iii) recent satellite aerosol products (SeaWIFS AOD). This dataset allowed to validate the main characteristics of the dust cycle (emission, transport, and deposit).

Impact of LUCC on streamflow based on the SWAT model over the Wei River basin on the Loess Plateau in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Hong; Sun, Fubao; Xia, Jun; Liu, Wenbin

2017-04-01

Under the Grain for Green Project in China, vegetation recovery construction has been widely implemented on the Loess Plateau for the purpose of soil and water conservation. Now it is becoming controversial whether the recovery construction involving vegetation, particularly forest, is reducing the streamflow in the rivers of the Yellow River basin. In this study, we chose the Wei River, the largest branch of the Yellow River, with revegetated construction area as the study area. To do that, we apply the widely used Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model for the upper and middle reaches of the Wei River basin. The SWAT model was forced with daily observed meteorological forcings (1960-2009) calibrated against daily streamflow for 1960-1969, validated for the period of 1970-1979, and used for analysis for 1980-2009. To investigate the impact of LUCC (land use and land cover change) on the streamflow, we firstly use two observed land use maps from 1980 and 2005 that are based on national land survey statistics merged with satellite observations. We found that the mean streamflow generated by using the 2005 land use map decreased in comparison with that using the 1980 one, with the same meteorological forcings. Of particular interest here is that the streamflow decreased on agricultural land but increased in forest areas. More specifically, the surface runoff, soil flow, and baseflow all decreased on agricultural land, while the soil flow and baseflow of forest areas increased. To investigate that, we then designed five scenarios: (S1) the present land use (1980) and (S2) 10 %, (S3) 20 %, (S4) 40 %, and (S5) 100 % of agricultural land that was converted into mixed forest. We found that the streamflow consistently increased with agricultural land converted into forest by about 7.4 mm per 10 %. Our modeling results suggest that forest recovery construction has a positive impact on both soil flow and baseflow by compensating for reduced surface runoff, which leads to a slight increase in the streamflow in the Wei River with the mixed landscapes on the Loess Plateau that include earth-rock mountain area.

Identifying Meteorological Controls on Open and Closed Mesoscale Cellular Convection as Associated with Marine Cold Air Outbreaks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCoy, Isabel; Wood, Robert; Fletcher, Jennifer

Marine low clouds are key influencers of the climate and contribute significantly to uncertainty in model climate sensitivity due to their small scale and complex processes. Many low clouds occur in large-scale cellular patterns, known as open and closed mesoscale cellular convection (MCC), which have significantly different radiative and microphysical properties. Investigating MCC development and meteorological controls will improve our understanding of their impacts on the climate. We conducted an examination of time-varying meteorological conditions associated with satellite-determined open and closed MCC. The spatial and temporal patterns of MCC clouds were compared with key meteorological control variables calculated from ERA-Interim Reanalysis to highlight dependencies and major differences. This illustrated the influence of environmental stability and surface forcing as well as the role of marine cold air outbreaks (MCAO, the movement of cold air from polar-regions across warmer waters) in MCC cloud formation. Such outbreaks are important to open MCC development and may also influence the transition from open to closed MCC. Our results may lead to improvements in the parameterization of cloudiness and advance the simulation of marine low clouds. National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship Grant (DGE-1256082).

Multi-scale modelling to evaluate building energy consumption at the neighbourhood scale.

PubMed

Mauree, Dasaraden; Coccolo, Silvia; Kaempf, Jérôme; Scartezzini, Jean-Louis

2017-01-01

A new methodology is proposed to couple a meteorological model with a building energy use model. The aim of such a coupling is to improve the boundary conditions of both models with no significant increase in computational time. In the present case, the Canopy Interface Model (CIM) is coupled with CitySim. CitySim provides the geometrical characteristics to CIM, which then calculates a high resolution profile of the meteorological variables. These are in turn used by CitySim to calculate the energy flows in an urban district. We have conducted a series of experiments on the EPFL campus in Lausanne, Switzerland, to show the effectiveness of the coupling strategy. First, measured data from the campus for the year 2015 are used to force CIM and to evaluate its aptitude to reproduce high resolution vertical profiles. Second, we compare the use of local climatic data and data from a meteorological station located outside the urban area, in an evaluation of energy use. In both experiments, we demonstrate the importance of using in building energy software, meteorological variables that account for the urban microclimate. Furthermore, we also show that some building and urban forms are more sensitive to the local environment.

Multi-scale modelling to evaluate building energy consumption at the neighbourhood scale

PubMed Central

Coccolo, Silvia; Kaempf, Jérôme; Scartezzini, Jean-Louis

2017-01-01

A new methodology is proposed to couple a meteorological model with a building energy use model. The aim of such a coupling is to improve the boundary conditions of both models with no significant increase in computational time. In the present case, the Canopy Interface Model (CIM) is coupled with CitySim. CitySim provides the geometrical characteristics to CIM, which then calculates a high resolution profile of the meteorological variables. These are in turn used by CitySim to calculate the energy flows in an urban district. We have conducted a series of experiments on the EPFL campus in Lausanne, Switzerland, to show the effectiveness of the coupling strategy. First, measured data from the campus for the year 2015 are used to force CIM and to evaluate its aptitude to reproduce high resolution vertical profiles. Second, we compare the use of local climatic data and data from a meteorological station located outside the urban area, in an evaluation of energy use. In both experiments, we demonstrate the importance of using in building energy software, meteorological variables that account for the urban microclimate. Furthermore, we also show that some building and urban forms are more sensitive to the local environment. PMID:28880883

“Modeling Trends in Aerosol Direct Radiative Effects over the Northern Hemisphere using a Coupled Meteorology-Chemistry Model”

EPA Science Inventory

While aerosol radiative effects have been recognized as some of the largest sources of uncertainty among the forcers of climate change, the verification of the spatial and temporal variability of the magnitude and directionality of aerosol radiative forcing has remained challengi...

TEMPORAL SIGNATURES OF AIR QUALITY OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL OUTPUTS: DO TIME SERIES DECOMPOSITION METHODS CAPTURE RELEVANT TIME SCALES?

EPA Science Inventory

Time series decomposition methods were applied to meteorological and air quality data and their numerical model estimates. Decomposition techniques express a time series as the sum of a small number of independent modes which hypothetically represent identifiable forcings, thereb...

Evaluating meteo marine climatic model inputs for the investigation of coastal hydrodynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bellafiore, D.; Bucchignani, E.; Umgiesser, G.

2010-09-01

One of the major aspects discussed in the recent works on climate change is how to provide information from the global scale to the local one. In fact the influence of sea level rise and changes in the meteorological conditions due to climate change in strategic areas like the coastal zone is at the base of the well known mitigation and risk assessment plans. The investigation of the coastal zone hydrodynamics, from a modeling point of view, has been the field for the connection between hydraulic models and ocean models and, in terms of process studies, finite element models have demonstrated their suitability in the reproduction of complex coastal morphology and in the capability to reproduce different spatial scale hydrodynamic processes. In this work the connection between two different model families, the climate models and the hydrodynamic models usually implemented for process studies, is tested. Together, they can be the most suitable tool for the investigation of climate change on coastal systems. A finite element model, SHYFEM (Shallow water Hydrodynamic Finite Element Model), is implemented on the Adriatic Sea, to investigate the effect of wind forcing datasets produced by different downscaling from global climate models in terms of surge and its coastal effects. The wind datasets are produced by the regional climate model COSMO-CLM (CIRA), and by EBU-POM model (Belgrade University), both downscaling from ECHAM4. As a first step the downscaled wind datasets, that have different spatial resolutions, has been analyzed for the period 1960-1990 to compare what is their capability to reproduce the measured wind statistics in the coastal zone in front of the Venice Lagoon. The particularity of the Adriatic Sea meteo climate is connected with the influence of the orography in the strengthening of winds like Bora, from North-East. The increase in spatial resolution permits the more resolved wind dataset to better reproduce meteorology and to provide a more realistic forcing for hydrodynamic simulations. After this analysis, effects on water level variations, under different wind forcing, has been analyzed to define what is the local effect on sea level changes in the coastal area of the North Adriatic. Surge statistics produced from different climate model forcings for the IPCC A1B scenario have been studied to provide local information on climate change effects on coastal hydrodynamics due to meteorological effect. This typology of application has been considered a suitable tool for coastal management and can be considered a study field that will increase its importance in the more general investigation on scale interaction processes as the effects of global scale climate phenomena on local areas.

Spatial Modeling for Resources Framework (SMRF): A modular framework for developing spatial forcing data for snow modeling in mountain basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Havens, Scott; Marks, Danny; Kormos, Patrick; Hedrick, Andrew

2017-12-01

In the Western US and many mountainous regions of the world, critical water resources and climate conditions are difficult to monitor because the observation network is generally very sparse. The critical resource from the mountain snowpack is water flowing into streams and reservoirs that will provide for irrigation, flood control, power generation, and ecosystem services. Water supply forecasting in a rapidly changing climate has become increasingly difficult because of non-stationary conditions. In response, operational water supply managers have begun to move from statistical techniques towards the use of physically based models. As we begin to transition physically based models from research to operational use, we must address the most difficult and time-consuming aspect of model initiation: the need for robust methods to develop and distribute the input forcing data. In this paper, we present a new open source framework, the Spatial Modeling for Resources Framework (SMRF), which automates and simplifies the common forcing data distribution methods. It is computationally efficient and can be implemented for both research and operational applications. We present an example of how SMRF is able to generate all of the forcing data required to a run physically based snow model at 50-100 m resolution over regions of 1000-7000 km2. The approach has been successfully applied in real time and historical applications for both the Boise River Basin in Idaho, USA and the Tuolumne River Basin in California, USA. These applications use meteorological station measurements and numerical weather prediction model outputs as input. SMRF has significantly streamlined the modeling workflow, decreased model set up time from weeks to days, and made near real-time application of a physically based snow model possible.

Application of NARR-based NLDAS Ensemble Simulations to Continental-Scale Drought Monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alonge, C. J.; Cosgrove, B. A.

2008-05-01

Government estimates indicate that droughts cause billions of dollars of damage to agricultural interests each year. More effective identification of droughts would directly benefit decision makers, and would allow for the more efficient allocation of resources that might mitigate the event. Land data assimilation systems, with their high quality representations of soil moisture, present an ideal platform for drought monitoring, and offer many advantages over traditional modeling systems. The recently released North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) covers the NLDAS domain and provides all fields necessary to force the NLDAS for 27 years. This presents an ideal opportunity to combine NARR and NLDAS resources into an effective real-time drought monitor. Toward this end, our project seeks to validate and explore the NARR's suitability as a base for drought monitoring applications - both in terms of data set length and accuracy. Along the same lines, the project will examine the impact of the use of different (longer) LDAS model climatologies on drought monitoring, and will explore the advantages of ensemble simulations versus single model simulations in drought monitoring activities. We also plan to produce a NARR- and observation-based high quality 27 year, 1/8th degree, 3-hourly, land surface and meteorological forcing data sets. An investigation of the best way to force an LDAS-type system will also be made, with traditional NLDAS and NLDASE forcing options explored. This presentation will focus on an overview of the drought monitoring project, and will include a summary of recent progress. Developments include the generation of forcing data sets, ensemble LSM output, and production of model-based drought indices over the entire NLDAS domain. Project forcing files use 32km NARR model output as a data backbone, and include observed precipitation (blended CPC gauge, PRISM gauge, Stage II, HPD, and CMORPH) and a GOES-based bias correction of downward solar radiation. Multiple LSM simulations have been conducted using the Noah, Mosaic, CLM3, HYSSiB, and Catchment LSMs. These simulations, along with the NARR-based forcing data form the basis for several drought indices. These include standard measures such as the Palmer-type indices, LDAS-type percentile and anomaly values, and CLM3-based vegetation condition index values.

A 60-year reconstructed high-resolution local meteorological data set in Central Sahel (1950-2009): evaluation, analysis and application to land surface modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leauthaud, Crystele; Cappelaere, Bernard; Demarty, Jérôme; Guichard, Françoise; Velluet, Cécile; Kergoat, Laurent; Vischel, Théo; Grippa, Manuela; Mouhaimouni, Mohammed; Bouzou Moussa, Ibrahim; Mainassara, Ibrahim; Sultan, Benjamin

2017-04-01

The Sahel has experienced strong climate variability in the past decades. Understanding its implications for natural and cultivated ecosystems is pivotal in a context of high population growth and mainly agriculture-based livelihoods. However, efforts to model processes at the land-atmosphere interface are hindered, particularly when the multi-decadal timescale is targeted, as climatic data are scarce, largely incomplete and often unreliable. This study presents the generation of a long-term, high-temporal resolution, multivariate local climatic data set for Niamey, Central Sahel. The continuous series spans the period 1950-2009 at a 30-min timescale and includes ground station-based meteorological variables (precipitation, air temperature, relative and specific humidity, air pressure, wind speed, downwelling long- and short-wave radiation) as well as process-modelled surface fluxes (upwelling long- and short-wave radiation,latent, sensible and soil heat fluxes and surface temperature). A combination of complementary techniques (linear/spline regressions, a multivariate analogue method, artificial neural networks and recursive gap filling) was used to reconstruct missing meteorological data. The complete surface energy budget was then obtained for two dominant land cover types, fallow bush and millet, by applying the meteorological forcing data set to a finely field-calibrated land surface model. Uncertainty in reconstructed data was expressed by means of a stochastic ensemble of plausible historical time series. Climatological statistics were computed at sub-daily to decadal timescales and compared with local, regional and global data sets such as CRU and ERA-Interim. The reconstructed precipitation statistics, ˜1°C increase in mean annual temperature from 1950 to 2009, and mean diurnal and annual cycles for all variables were in good agreement with previous studies. The new data set, denoted NAD (Niamey Airport-derived set) and publicly available, can be used to investigate the water and energy cycles in Central Sahel, while the methodology can be applied to reconstruct series at other stations. The study has been published in Int. J. Climatol. (2016), DOI: 10.1002/joc.4874

WRF-based fire risk modelling and evaluation for years 2010 and 2012 in Poland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stec, Magdalena; Szymanowski, Mariusz; Kryza, Maciej

2016-04-01

Wildfires are one of the main ecosystems' disturbances for forested, seminatural and agricultural areas. They generate significant economic loss, especially in forest management and agriculture. Forest fire risk modeling is therefore essential e.g. for forestry administration. In August 2015 a new method of forest fire risk forecasting entered into force in Poland. The method allows to predict a fire risk level in a 4-degree scale (0 - no risk, 3 - highest risk) and consists of a set of linearized regression equations. Meteorological information is used as predictors in regression equations, with air temperature, relative humidity, average wind speed, cloudiness and rainfall. The equations include also pine litter humidity as a measure of potential fuel characteristics. All these parameters are measured routinely in Poland at 42 basic and 94 auxiliary sites. The fire risk level is estimated for a current (basing on morning measurements) or next day (basing on midday measurements). Entire country is divided into 42 prognostic zones, and fire risk level for each zone is taken from the closest measuring site. The first goal of this work is to assess if the measurements needed for fire risk forecasting may be replaced by the data from mesoscale meteorological model. Additionally, the use of a meteorological model would allow to take into account much more realistic spatial differentiation of weather elements determining the fire risk level instead of discrete point-made measurements. Meteorological data have been calculated using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF). For the purpose of this study the WRF model is run in the reanalysis mode allowing to estimate all required meteorological data in a 5-kilometers grid. The only parameter that cannot be directly calculated using WRF is the litter humidity, which has been estimated using empirical formula developed by Sakowska (2007). The experiments are carried out for two selected years: 2010 and 2012. The year 2010 was characterized by the smallest number of wildfires and burnt area whereas 2012 - by the biggest number of fires and the largest area of conflagration. The data about time, localization, scale and causes of individual wildfire occurrence in given years are taken from the National Forest Fire Information System (KSIPL), administered by Forest Fire Protection Department of Polish Forest Research Institute. The database is a part of European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS). Basing on this data and on the WRF-based fire risk modelling we intend to achieve the second goal of the study, which is the evaluation of the forecasted fire risk with an occurrence of wildfires. Special attention is paid here to the number, time and the spatial distribution of wildfires occurred in cases of low-level predicted fire risk. Results obtained reveals the effectiveness of the new forecasting method. The outcome of our investigation allows to draw a conclusion that some adjustments are possible to improve the efficiency on the fire-risk estimation method.

Predicting Low Flow Conditions from Climatic Indices - Indicator-Based Modeling for Climate Change Impact Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fangmann, Anne; Haberlandt, Uwe

2014-05-01

In the face of climate change, the assessment of future hydrological regimes has become indispensable in the field of water resources management. Investigation of potential change is vital for proper planning, especially with regard to hydrological extremes. Commonly, projection of future streamflow is done applying process-based hydrological models, using climate model data as input, whose complex model structures generally require excessive amounts of time and effort for set-up and computation. This study aims at identifying practical alternatives to the employment of sophisticated models by considering simpler, yet sufficiently accurate methods for modeling rainfall-runoff relations with regard to hydrological extremes. The focus is thereby put on the prediction of low flow periods, which are, in contrast to flood events, characterized by extended durations and spatial dimensions. The models to be established in this study base on indicators, which characterize both meteorological and hydrological conditions within dry periods. This approach makes direct use of the coupling between atmospheric driving forces and streamflow response with the underlying presumption that low-precipitation and high-evaporation periods result in diminished flow, implying that relationships exist between the properties of both meteorological and hydrological events (duration, volume, severity etc.). Eventually, optimal combinations of meteorological indicators are sought that are suitable to predict various low flow characteristics with satisfactory accuracy. Two approaches for model specification are tested: a) multiple linear regression, and b) Fuzzy logic. The data used for this study are daily time series of mean discharge obtained from 294 gauges with variable record length situated in the federal state of Lower Saxony, Germany, as well as interpolated climate variables available for a period from 1951 to 2011. After extraction of a variety of indicators from the available discharge and climate time series on a bi-annual basis, regression and Fuzzy models are fit. Fitting is done in two variations: locally at each of the watersheds in the study area, and regionally, yielding one specific model expression for the entire study area. Models for the individual stations perform well using only the meteorological indicators as predictor variables, while the regional models require the additional input of catchment descriptors to account for the variability of the rainfall-runoff translation processes between the catchments.

Meteorological Processes Affecting Air Quality – Research and Model Development Needs

EPA Science Inventory

Meteorology modeling is an important component of air quality modeling systems that defines the physical and dynamical environment for atmospheric chemistry. The meteorology models used for air quality applications are based on numerical weather prediction models that were devel...

Sulfate and Pb-210 Simulated in a Global Model Using Assimilated Meteorological Fields

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chin, Mian; Rood, Richard; Lin, S.-J.; Jacob, Daniel; Muller, Jean-Francois

1999-01-01

This report presents the results of distributions of tropospheric sulfate, Pb-210 and their precursors from a global 3-D model. This model is driven by assimilated meteorological fields generated by the Goddard Data Assimilation Office. Model results are compared with observations from surface sites and from multiplatform field campaigns of Pacific Exploratory Missions (PEM) and Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE). The model generally captures the seasonal variation of sulfate at the surface sites, and reproduces well the short-term in-situ observations. We will discuss the roles of various processes contributing to the sulfate levels in the troposphere, and the roles of sulfate aerosol in regional and global radiative forcing.

[Individual tree diameter increment model for natural Betula platyphylla forests based on meteorological factors].

PubMed

Zhang, Hai Ping; Li, Feng Ri; Dong, Li Hu; Liu, Qiang

2017-06-18

Based on the 212 re-measured permanent plots for natural Betula platyphylla fore-sts in Daxing'an Mountains and Xiaoxing'an Mountains and 30 meteorological stations data, an individual tree growth model based on meteorological factors was constructed. The differences of stand and meteorological factors between Daxing'an Mountains and Xiaoxing'an Mountains were analyzed and the diameter increment model including the regional effects was developed by dummy variable approach. The results showed that the minimum temperature (T g min ) and mean precipitation (P g m ) in growing season were the main meteorological factors which affected the diameter increment in the two study areas. T g min and P g m were positively correlated with the diameter increment, but the influence strength of T g min was obviously different between the two research areas. The adjusted coefficient of determination (R a 2 ) of the diameter increment model with meteorological factors was 0.56 and had an 11% increase compared to the one without meteorological factors. It was concluded that meteorological factors could well explain the diameter increment of B. platyphylla. R a 2 of the model with regional effects was 0.59, and increased by 18% compared to the one without regional effects, and effectively solved the incompatible problem of parameters between the two research areas. The validation results showed that the individual tree diameter growth model with regional effect had the best prediction accuracy in estimating the diameter increment of B. platyphylla. The mean error, mean absolute error, mean error percent and mean prediction error percent were 0.0086, 0.4476, 5.8% and 20.0%, respectively. Overall, dummy variable model of individual tree diameter increment based on meteorological factors could well describe the diameter increment process of natural B. platyphylla in Daxing'an Mountains and Xiaoxing'an Mountains.

Short Term Exogenic Climate Change Forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krahenbuhl, Daniel

Several short term exogenic forcings affecting Earth's climate are but recently identified. Lunar nutation periodicity has implications for numerical meteorological prediction. Abrupt shifts in solar wind bulk velocity, particle density, and polarity exhibit correlation with terrestrial hemispheric vorticity changes, cyclonic strengthening and the intensification of baroclinic disturbances. Galactic Cosmic ray induced tropospheric ionization modifies cloud microphysics, and modulates the global electric circuit. This dissertation is constructed around three research questions: (1): What are the biweekly declination effects of lunar gravitation upon the troposphere? (2): How do United States severe weather reports correlate with heliospheric current sheet crossings? and (3): How does cloud cover spatially and temporally vary with galactic cosmic rays? Study 1 findings show spatial consistency concerning lunar declination extremes upon Rossby longwaves. Due to the influence of Rossby longwaves on synoptic scale circulation, our results could theoretically extend numerical meteorological forecasting. Study 2 results indicate a preference for violent tornadoes to occur prior to a HCS crossing. Violent tornadoes (EF3+) are 10% more probable to occur near, and 4% less probable immediately after a HCS crossing. The distribution of hail and damaging wind reports do not mirror this pattern. Polarity is critical for the effect. Study 3 results confirm anticorrelation between solar flux and low-level marine-layer cloud cover, but indicate substantial regional variability between cloud cover altitude and GCRs. Ultimately, this dissertation serves to extend short term meteorological forecasting, enhance climatological modeling and through analysis of severe violent weather and heliospheric events, protect property and save lives.

Seven years (2008-2014) of meteorological observations plus a synthetic El Nino drought for BCI Panama.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Powell, Thomas; Kueppers, Lara; Paton, Steve

This dataset is a derivative product of raw meteorological data collected at Barro Colorado Island, Panama (see acknowledgements below). This dataset contains the following: 1) a seven-year record (2008-2014) of meteorological observations from BCI that is in a comma delimited text format, 2) an R-script that converts the observed meteorology into an hdf5 format that can be read by the ED2 model, 3) two decades of meteorological drivers in hdf5 format that are based on the 7-year record of observations and include a synthetic 2-yr El Nino drought, 4) a ReadMe.txt file that explains how the data in the hdf5more » meteorological drivers correspond to the observations. The raw meteorological data were further QC'd as part of the NGEE-Tropics project to derive item 1 above. The R-script makes the appropriate unit conversions for all observed meteorological variables to be compatible with the ED2 model. The R-script also converts RH into specific humidity, splits total shortwave radiation into its 4-stream parts, and calculates longwave radiation from air temperature and RH. The synthetic El Nino drought is based on selected months from the observed meteorology where in each, precipitation (only) of the selected months was modified to reflect the precipitation patterns of the 1982/83 El Nino observed at BCI.« less

Seismic Monitoring of Stability of Unique Historical Buildings in the Czech Republic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Broz, M.; Strunc, J.; Buben, J.

2008-05-01

The persistence of unique Historical Buildings is restricted due to weathering of construction material enhanced by meteorological processes such as storms, driving rain and temperature variations beneath the freezing point. Dynamic forces endangering the mechanical stability of exposed elements of building structures could be caused also by impacts of seismic waves. The long-time decrease of earthquake resistance is monitored using empirical functions of seismic response. This method is based on evaluation the co-spectra of exciting and forced vibrations of foundations and the structure elements in question. This poster notifies three examples of utilization of this method as follows: 1) In the course of renovating the St. Barbora temple in the Kutná Hora village, the vibrations caused by meteorological processes, supersonic aircraft transit and blasting in quarries have been evaluated. After completing the renovation of endangered spire elements, the local maximum of co-spectral function at 4Hz was shifted to 7Hz and the function approached more likely a wide-band course. 2) In the course of installation of the third bell in the bell tower of the of the Sázava monastery, the co-spectra of forced vibrations of tower walls were monitored and a more convenient time-function of bell clang was adjusted. 3) In connection with the construction of a highway tunnel in the 1,4 km distance from the St. Vit cathedral in the Praha-Hradèany castle, the long-term schedule of motoring seismic vibrations was started. In the course of driving the tunnels, the mili-sec blasting of charges up to 5 kg is used. Seismic vibrations are recorded by pickups situated on the subsoil and on the voussoir arch. The digital multichannel seismic recording apparatus (256 samples per sec) is equipped for continuous telemetric data transfer and automated evaluation. (Grant Foundation of the Czech Republic, 103/07/1522).

Simplification of the Kalman filter for meteorological data assimilation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dee, Dick P.

1991-01-01

The paper proposes a new statistical method of data assimilation that is based on a simplification of the Kalman filter equations. The forecast error covariance evolution is approximated simply by advecting the mass-error covariance field, deriving the remaining covariances geostrophically, and accounting for external model-error forcing only at the end of each forecast cycle. This greatly reduces the cost of computation of the forecast error covariance. In simulations with a linear, one-dimensional shallow-water model and data generated artificially, the performance of the simplified filter is compared with that of the Kalman filter and the optimal interpolation (OI) method. The simplified filter produces analyses that are nearly optimal, and represents a significant improvement over OI.

Weather patterns as a downscaling tool - evaluating their skill in stratifying local climate variables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murawski, Aline; Bürger, Gerd; Vorogushyn, Sergiy; Merz, Bruno

2016-04-01

The use of a weather pattern based approach for downscaling of coarse, gridded atmospheric data, as usually obtained from the output of general circulation models (GCM), allows for investigating the impact of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions on fluxes and state variables of the hydrological cycle such as e.g. on runoff in large river catchments. Here we aim at attributing changes in high flows in the Rhine catchment to anthropogenic climate change. Therefore we run an objective classification scheme (simulated annealing and diversified randomisation - SANDRA, available from the cost733 classification software) on ERA20C reanalyses data and apply the established classification to GCMs from the CMIP5 project. After deriving weather pattern time series from GCM runs using forcing from all greenhouse gases (All-Hist) and using natural greenhouse gas forcing only (Nat-Hist), a weather generator will be employed to obtain climate data time series for the hydrological model. The parameters of the weather pattern classification (i.e. spatial extent, number of patterns, classification variables) need to be selected in a way that allows for good stratification of the meteorological variables that are of interest for the hydrological modelling. We evaluate the skill of the classification in stratifying meteorological data using a multi-variable approach. This allows for estimating the stratification skill for all meteorological variables together, not separately as usually done in existing similar work. The advantage of the multi-variable approach is to properly account for situations where e.g. two patterns are associated with similar mean daily temperature, but one pattern is dry while the other one is related to considerable amounts of precipitation. Thus, the separation of these two patterns would not be justified when considering temperature only, but is perfectly reasonable when accounting for precipitation as well. Besides that, the weather patterns derived from reanalyses data should be well represented in the All-Hist GCM runs in terms of e.g. frequency, seasonality, and persistence. In this contribution we show how to select the most appropriate weather pattern classification and how the classes derived from it are reflected in the GCMs.

The role of meteorological conditions and pollution control strategies in reducing air pollution in Beijing during APEC 2014 and Victory Parade 2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, Pengfei; Zhu, Tong; Fang, Yanhua; Li, Yingruo; Han, Yiqun; Wu, Yusheng; Hu, Min; Wang, Junxia

2017-11-01

To control severe air pollution in China, comprehensive pollution control strategies have been implemented throughout the country in recent years. To evaluate the effectiveness of these strategies, the influence of meteorological conditions on levels of air pollution needs to be determined. Using the intensive air pollution control strategies implemented during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Forum in 2014 (APEC 2014) and the 2015 China Victory Day Parade (Victory Parade 2015) as examples, we estimated the role of meteorological conditions and pollution control strategies in reducing air pollution levels in Beijing. Atmospheric particulate matter of aerodynamic diameter ≤ 2.5 µm (PM2.5) samples were collected and gaseous pollutants (SO2, NO, NOx, and O3) were measured online at a site in Peking University (PKU). To determine the influence of meteorological conditions on the levels of air pollution, we first compared the air pollutant concentrations during days with stable meteorological conditions. However, there were few days with stable meteorological conditions during the Victory Parade. As such, we were unable to estimate the level of emission reduction efforts during this period. Finally, a generalized linear regression model (GLM) based only on meteorological parameters was built to predict air pollutant concentrations, which could explain more than 70 % of the variation in air pollutant concentration levels, after incorporating the nonlinear relationships between certain meteorological parameters and the concentrations of air pollutants. Evaluation of the GLM performance revealed that the GLM, even based only on meteorological parameters, could be satisfactory to estimate the contribution of meteorological conditions in reducing air pollution and, hence, the contribution of control strategies in reducing air pollution. Using the GLM, we found that the meteorological conditions and pollution control strategies contributed 30 and 28 % to the reduction of the PM2.5 concentration during APEC and 38 and 25 % during the Victory Parade, respectively, based on the assumption that the concentrations of air pollutants are only determined by meteorological conditions and emission intensities. We also estimated the contribution of meteorological conditions and control strategies in reducing the concentrations of gaseous pollutants and PM2.5 components with the GLMs, revealing the effective control of anthropogenic emissions.

THE VALUE OF NUDGING IN THE METEOROLOGY MODEL FOR RETROSPECTIVE CMAQ SIMULATIONS

EPA Science Inventory

Using a nudging-based data assimilation approach throughout a meteorology simulation (i.e., as a "dynamic analysis") is considered valuable because it can provide a better overall representation of the meteorology than a pure forecast. Dynamic analysis is often used in...

Evaluation of an Agricultural Meteorological Disaster Based on Multiple Criterion Decision Making and Evolutionary Algorithm

PubMed Central

Yu, Xiaobing; Yu, Xianrui; Lu, Yiqun

2018-01-01

The evaluation of a meteorological disaster can be regarded as a multiple-criteria decision making problem because it involves many indexes. Firstly, a comprehensive indexing system for an agricultural meteorological disaster is proposed, which includes the disaster rate, the inundated rate, and the complete loss rate. Following this, the relative weights of the three criteria are acquired using a novel proposed evolutionary algorithm. The proposed algorithm consists of a differential evolution algorithm and an evolution strategy. Finally, a novel evaluation model, based on the proposed algorithm and the Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS), is presented to estimate the agricultural meteorological disaster of 2008 in China. The geographic information system (GIS) technique is employed to depict the disaster. The experimental results demonstrated that the agricultural meteorological disaster of 2008 was very serious, especially in Hunan and Hubei provinces. Some useful suggestions are provided to relieve agriculture meteorological disasters. PMID:29597243

Improvement of web-based data acquisition and management system for GOSAT validation lidar data analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okumura, Hiroshi; Takubo, Shoichiro; Kawasaki, Takeru; Abdullah, Indra Nugraha; Uchino, Osamu; Morino, Isamu; Yokota, Tatsuya; Nagai, Tomohiro; Sakai, Tetsu; Maki, Takashi; Arai, Kohei

2013-01-01

A web-base data acquisition and management system for GOSAT (Greenhouse gases Observation SATellite) validation lidar data-analysis has been developed. The system consists of data acquisition sub-system (DAS) and data management sub-system (DMS). DAS written in Perl language acquires AMeDAS (Automated Meteorological Data Acquisition System) ground-level local meteorological data, GPS Radiosonde upper-air meteorological data, ground-level oxidant data, skyradiometer data, skyview camera images, meteorological satellite IR image data and GOSAT validation lidar data. DMS written in PHP language demonstrates satellite-pass date and all acquired data. In this article, we briefly describe some improvement for higher performance and higher data usability. GPS Radiosonde upper-air meteorological data and U.S. standard atmospheric model in DAS automatically calculate molecule number density profiles. Predicted ozone density prole images above Saga city are also calculated by using Meteorological Research Institute (MRI) chemistry-climate model version 2 for comparison to actual ozone DIAL data.

Correlation analysis for the attack of bacillary dysentery and meteorological factors based on the Chinese medicine theory of Yunqi and the medical-meteorological forecast model.

PubMed

Ma, Shi-Lei; Tang, Qiao-Ling; Liu, Hong-Wei; He, Juan; Gao, Si-Hua

2013-03-01

To explore the impact of meteorological factors on the outbreak of bacillary dysentery, so as to provide suggestions for disease prevention. Based on the Chinese medicine theory of Yunqi, the descriptive statistics, single-factor correlation analysis and back-propagation artificial neural net-work were conducted using data on five basic meteorological factors and data on incidence of bacillary dysentery in Beijing, China, for the period 1970-2004. The incidence of bacillary dysentery showed significant positive correlation relationship with the precipitation, relative humidity, vapor pressure, and temperature, respectively. The incidence of bacillary dysentery showed a negatively correlated relationship with the wind speed and the change trend of average wind speed. The results of medical-meteorological forecast model showed a relatively high accuracy rate. There is a close relationship between the meteorological factors and the incidence of bacillary dysentery, but the contributions of which to the onset of bacillary dysentery are different to each other.

A Comprehensive Estimation of the Economic Effects of Meteorological Services Based on the Input-Output Method

PubMed Central

Wu, Xianhua; Yang, Lingjuan; Guo, Ji; Lu, Huaguo; Chen, Yunfeng; Sun, Jian

2014-01-01

Concentrating on consuming coefficient, partition coefficient, and Leontief inverse matrix, relevant concepts and algorithms are developed for estimating the impact of meteorological services including the associated (indirect, complete) economic effect. Subsequently, quantitative estimations are particularly obtained for the meteorological services in Jiangxi province by utilizing the input-output method. It is found that the economic effects are noticeably rescued by the preventive strategies developed from both the meteorological information and internal relevance (interdependency) in the industrial economic system. Another finding is that the ratio range of input in the complete economic effect on meteorological services is about 1 : 108.27–1 : 183.06, remarkably different from a previous estimation based on the Delphi method (1 : 30–1 : 51). Particularly, economic effects of meteorological services are higher for nontraditional users of manufacturing, wholesale and retail trades, services sector, tourism and culture, and art and lower for traditional users of agriculture, forestry, livestock, fishery, and construction industries. PMID:24578666

A comprehensive estimation of the economic effects of meteorological services based on the input-output method.

PubMed

Wu, Xianhua; Wei, Guo; Yang, Lingjuan; Guo, Ji; Lu, Huaguo; Chen, Yunfeng; Sun, Jian

2014-01-01

Concentrating on consuming coefficient, partition coefficient, and Leontief inverse matrix, relevant concepts and algorithms are developed for estimating the impact of meteorological services including the associated (indirect, complete) economic effect. Subsequently, quantitative estimations are particularly obtained for the meteorological services in Jiangxi province by utilizing the input-output method. It is found that the economic effects are noticeably rescued by the preventive strategies developed from both the meteorological information and internal relevance (interdependency) in the industrial economic system. Another finding is that the ratio range of input in the complete economic effect on meteorological services is about 1 : 108.27-1 : 183.06, remarkably different from a previous estimation based on the Delphi method (1 : 30-1 : 51). Particularly, economic effects of meteorological services are higher for nontraditional users of manufacturing, wholesale and retail trades, services sector, tourism and culture, and art and lower for traditional users of agriculture, forestry, livestock, fishery, and construction industries.

Statistical Short-Range Guidance for Peak Wind Speed Forecasts at Edwards Air Force Base, CA

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dreher, Joseph; Crawford, Winifred; Lafosse, Richard; Hoeth, Brian; Burns, Kerry

2008-01-01

The peak winds near the surface are an important forecast element for Space Shuttle landings. As defined in the Shuttle Flight Rules (FRs), there are peak wind thresholds that cannot be exceeded in order to ensure the safety of the shuttle during landing operations. The National Weather Service Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) is responsible for weather forecasts for all shuttle landings. They indicate peak winds are a challenging parameter to forecast. To alleviate the difficulty in making such wind forecasts, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMTJ) developed a personal computer based graphical user interface (GUI) for displaying peak wind climatology and probabilities of exceeding peak-wind thresholds for the Shuttle Landing Facility (SLF) at Kennedy Space Center. However, the shuttle must land at Edwards Air Force Base (EAFB) in southern California when weather conditions at Kennedy Space Center in Florida are not acceptable, so SMG forecasters requested that a similar tool be developed for EAFB. Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) personnel archived and performed quality control of 2-minute average and 10-minute peak wind speeds at each tower adjacent to the main runway at EAFB from 1997- 2004. They calculated wind climatologies and probabilities of average peak wind occurrence based on the average speed. The climatologies were calculated for each tower and month, and were stratified by hour, direction, and direction/hour. For the probabilities of peak wind occurrence, MSFC calculated empirical and modeled probabilities of meeting or exceeding specific 10-minute peak wind speeds using probability density functions. The AMU obtained and reformatted the data into Microsoft Excel PivotTables, which allows users to display different values with point-click-drag techniques. The GUT was then created from the PivotTables using Visual Basic for Applications code. The GUI is run through a macro within Microsoft Excel and allows forecasters to quickly display and interpret peak wind climatology and likelihoods in a fast-paced operational environment. A summary of how the peak wind climatologies and probabilities were created and an overview of the GUT will be presented.

Plume trajectory formation under stack tip self-enveloping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gribkov, A. M.; Zroichikov, N. A.; Prokhorov, V. B.

2017-10-01

The phenomenon of stack tip self-enveloping and its influence upon the conditions of plume formation and on the trajectory of its motion are considered. Processes are described occurring in the initial part of the plume while the interaction between vertically directed flue gases outflowing from the stack and a horizontally directed moving air flow at high wind velocities that lead to the formation of a flag-like plume. Conditions responsible for the origin and evolution of interaction between these flows are demonstrated. For the first time, a plume formed under these conditions without bifurcation is registered. A photo image thereof is presented. A scheme for the calculation of the motion of a plume trajectory is proposed, the quantitative characteristics of which are obtained based on field observations. The wind velocity and direction, air temperature, and atmospheric turbulence at the level of the initial part of the trajectory have been obtained based on data obtained from an automatic meteorological system (mounted on the outer parts of a 250 m high stack no. 1 at the Naberezhnye Chelny TEPP plant) as well as based on the results of photographing and theodolite sighting of smoke puffs' trajectory taking into account their velocity within its initial part. The calculation scheme is supplemented with a new acting force—the force of self-enveloping. Based on the comparison of the new calculation scheme with the previous one, a significant contribution of this force to the development of the trajectory is revealed. A comparison of the natural full-scale data with the results of the calculation according to the proposed new scheme is made. The proposed calculation scheme has allowed us to extend the application of the existing technique to the range of high wind velocities. This approach would make it possible to simulate and investigate the trajectory and full rising height of the calculated the length above the mouth of flue-pipes, depending on various modal and meteorological parameters under the interrelation between the dynamic and thermal components of the rise as well as to obtain a universal calculation expression for determining the height of the plume rise for different classes of atmospheric stability.

Weather in Your Life.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kannegieter, Sandy; Wirkler, Linda

Facts and activities related to weather and meteorology are presented in this unit. Separate sections cover the following topics: (1) the water cycle; (2) clouds; (3) the Beaufort Scale for rating the speed and force of wind; (4) the barometer; (5) weather prediction; (6) fall weather in Iowa (sleet, frost, and fog); (7) winter weather in Iowa…

Large-scale phenomena, chapter 3, part D

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1975-01-01

Oceanic phenomena with horizontal scales from approximately 100 km up to the widths of the oceans themselves are examined. Data include: shape of geoid, quasi-stationary anomalies due to spatial variations in sea density and steady current systems, and the time dependent variations due to tidal and meteorological forces and to varying currents.

A distributed snow-evolution modeling system (SnowModel)

Treesearch

Glen E. Liston; Kelly Elder

2006-01-01

SnowModel is a spatially distributed snow-evolution modeling system designed for application in landscapes, climates, and conditions where snow occurs. It is an aggregation of four submodels: MicroMet defines meteorological forcing conditions, EnBal calculates surface energy exchanges, SnowPack simulates snow depth and water-equivalent evolution, and SnowTran-3D...

KSC-01pp0873

NASA Image and Video Library

2001-04-16

Workers at Astrotech, Titusville, Fla., prepare to open the solar panel on the GOES-M satellite. The GOES-M provides weather imagery and quantitative sounding data used to support weather forecasting, severe storm tracking and meteorological research. The satellite is scheduled to launch July 12 on an Atlas-IIA booster, Centaur upper stage from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station

KSC-01pp0875

NASA Image and Video Library

2001-04-16

Workers at Astrotech, Titusville, Fla., check the solar panel on the GOES-M satellite. The GOES-M provides weather imagery and quantitative sounding data used to support weather forecasting, severe storm tracking and meteorological research. The satellite is scheduled to launch July 12 on an Atlas-IIA booster, Centaur upper stage from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station

KSC01pp0799

NASA Image and Video Library

2001-04-12

Workers at Astrotech, Titusville, Fla., work on the GOES-M satellite. The GOES-M provides weather imagery and quantitative sounding data used to support weather forecasting, severe storm tracking and meteorological research. The satellite is undergoing testing at Astrotech before its scheduled launch July 12 on an Atlas-IIA booster, Centaur upper stage from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station

KSC-01pp0881

NASA Image and Video Library

2001-04-16

At Astrotech, Titusville, Fla., a worker checks components of the GOES-M satellite. The GOES-M provides weather imagery and quantitative sounding data used to support weather forecasting, severe storm tracking and meteorological research. The satellite is scheduled to launch July 12 on an Atlas-IIA booster, Centaur upper stage from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station

Evaluating the impact of chemical boundary conditions on near surface ozone in regional climate-air quality simulations over Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akritidis, D.; Zanis, P.; Katragkou, E.; Schultz, M. G.; Tegoulias, I.; Poupkou, A.; Markakis, K.; Pytharoulis, I.; Karacostas, Th.

2013-12-01

A modeling system based on the air quality model CAMx driven off-line by the regional climate model RegCM3 is used for assessing the impact of chemical lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) on near surface ozone over Europe for the period 1996-2000. The RegCM3 and CAMx simulations were performed on a 50 km × 50 km grid over Europe with RegCM3 driven by the NCEP meteorological reanalysis fields and CAMx with chemical LBCs from ECHAM5/MOZART global model. The recent past period (1996-2000) was simulated in three experiments. The first simulation was forced using time and space invariant LBCs, the second was based on ECHAM5/MOZART chemical LBCs fixed for the year 1996 and the third was based on ECHAM5/MOZART chemical LBCs with interannual variability. Anthropogenic and biogenic emissions were kept identical for the three sensitivity runs.

Simulating and Predicting Cereal Crop Yields in Ethiopia: Model Calibration and Verification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, M.; Wang, G.; Ahmed, K. F.; Eggen, M.; Adugna, B.; Anagnostou, E. N.

2017-12-01

Agriculture in developing countries are extremely vulnerable to climate variability and changes. In East Africa, most people live in the rural areas with outdated agriculture techniques and infrastructure. Smallholder agriculture continues to play a key role in this area, and the rate of irrigation is among the lowest of the world. As a result, seasonal and inter-annual weather patterns play an important role in the spatiotemporal variability of crop yields. This study investigates how various climate variables (e.g., temperature, precipitation, sunshine) and agricultural practice (e.g., fertilization, irrigation, planting date) influence cereal crop yields using a process-based model (DSSAT) and statistical analysis, and focuses on the Blue Nile Basin of Ethiopia. The DSSAT model is driven with meteorological forcing from the ECMWF's latest reanalysis product that cover the past 35 years; the statistical model will be developed by linking the same meteorological reanalysis data with harvest data at the woreda level from the Ethiopian national dataset. Results from this study will set the stage for the development of a seasonal prediction system for weather and crop yields in Ethiopia, which will serve multiple sectors in coping with the agricultural impact of climate variability.

Global scale predictability of floods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weerts, Albrecht; Gijsbers, Peter; Sperna Weiland, Frederiek

2016-04-01

Flood (and storm surge) forecasting at the continental and global scale has only become possible in recent years (Emmerton et al., 2016; Verlaan et al., 2015) due to the availability of meteorological forecast, global scale precipitation products and global scale hydrologic and hydrodynamic models. Deltares has setup GLOFFIS a research-oriented multi model operational flood forecasting system based on Delft-FEWS in an open experimental ICT facility called Id-Lab. In GLOFFIS both the W3RA and PCRGLOB-WB model are run in ensemble mode using GEFS and ECMWF-EPS (latency 2 days). GLOFFIS will be used for experiments into predictability of floods (and droughts) and their dependency on initial state estimation, meteorological forcing and the hydrologic model used. Here we present initial results of verification of the ensemble flood forecasts derived with the GLOFFIS system. Emmerton, R., Stephens, L., Pappenberger, F., Pagano, T., Weerts, A., Wood, A. Salamon, P., Brown, J., Hjerdt, N., Donnelly, C., Cloke, H. Continental and Global Scale Flood Forecasting Systems, WIREs Water (accepted), 2016 Verlaan M, De Kleermaeker S, Buckman L. GLOSSIS: Global storm surge forecasting and information system 2015, Australasian Coasts & Ports Conference, 15-18 September 2015,Auckland, New Zealand.

Formation and variation of the atmospheric heat source over the Tibetan Plateau and its climate effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Guoxiong; He, Bian; Duan, Anmin; Liu, Yimin; Yu, Wei

2017-10-01

To cherish the memory of the late Professor Duzheng YE on what would have been his 100th birthday, and to celebrate his great accomplishment in opening a new era of Tibetan Plateau (TP) meteorology, this review paper provides an assessment of the atmospheric heat source (AHS) over the TP from different data resources, including observations from local meteorological stations, satellite remote sensing data, and various reanalysis datasets. The uncertainty and applicability of these heat source data are evaluated. Analysis regarding the formation of the AHS over the TP demonstrates that it is not only the cause of the atmospheric circulation, but is also a result of that circulation. Based on numerical experiments, the review further demonstrates that land-sea thermal contrast is only one part of the monsoon story. The thermal forcing of the Tibetan-Iranian Plateau plays a significant role in generating the Asian summer monsoon (ASM), i.e., in addition to pumping water vapor from sea to land and from the lower to the upper troposphere, it also generates a subtropical monsoon-type meridional circulation subject to the angular momentum conservation, providing an ascending-air large-scale background for the development of the ASM.

Tower Mesonetwork Climatology and Interactive Display Tool

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Case, Jonathan L.; Bauman, William H., III

2004-01-01

Forecasters at the 45th Weather Squadron and Spaceflight Meteorology Group use data from the tower network over the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) to evaluate Launch Commit Criteria, and issue and verify forecasts for ground operations. Systematic biases in these parameters could adversely affect an analysis, forecast, or verification. Also, substantial geographical variations in temperature and wind speed can occur under specific wind directions. To address these concerns, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) developed a climatology of temperatures and winds from the tower network, and identified the geographical variation and significant tower biases. The mesoclimate is largely driven by the complex land-water interfaces across KSC/CCAFS. Towers with close proximity to water typically had much warmer nocturnal temperatures and higher wind speeds throughout the year. The strongest nocturnal wind speeds occurred from October to March whereas the strongest mean daytime wind speeds occurred from February to May. These results of this project can be viewed by forecasters through an interactive graphical user interface developed by the AMU. The web-based interface includes graphical and map displays of mean, standard deviation, bias, and data availability for any combination of towers, variables, months, hours, and wind directions.

Modification of a variational objective analysis model for new equations for pressure gradient and vertical velocity in the lower troposphere and for spatial resolution and accuracy of satellite data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Achtemeier, G. L.

1986-01-01

Since late 1982 NASA has supported research to develop a numerical variational model for the diagnostic assimilation of conventional and space-based meteorological data. In order to analyze the model components, four variational models are defined dividing the problem naturally according to increasing complexity. The first of these variational models (MODEL I), the subject of this report, contains the two nonlinear horizontal momentum equations, the integrated continuity equation, and the hydrostatic equation. This report summarizes the results of research (1) to improve the way the large nonmeteorological parts of the pressure gradient force are partitioned between the two terms of the pressure gradient force terms of the horizontal momentum equations, (2) to generalize the integrated continuity equation to account for variable pressure thickness over elevated terrain, and (3) to introduce horizontal variation in the precision modulus weights for the observations.

Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) Quarterly Report Fourth Quarter FY-13

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bauman, William; Crawford, Winifred; Watson, Leela; Shafer, Jaclyn; Huddleston, Lisa

2013-01-01

Ms. Shafer completed the task to determine relationships between pressure gradients and peak winds at Vandenberg Air Force Base (VAFB), and began developing a climatology for the VAFB wind towers; Dr. Huddleston completed the task to develop a tool to help forecast the time of the first lightning strike of the day in the Kennedy Space Center (KSC)/Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) area; Dr. Bauman completed work on a severe weather forecast tool focused on the Eastern Range (ER), and also developed upper-winds analysis tools for VAFB and Wallops Fl ight Facility (WFF); Ms. Crawford processed and displayed radar data in the software she will use to create a dual-Doppler analysis over the east-central Florida and KSC/CCAFS areas; Mr. Decker completed developing a wind pairs database for the Launch Services Program to use when evaluating upper-level winds for launch vehicles; Dr. Watson continued work to assimilate observational data into the high-resolution model configurations she created for WFF and the ER.

Problem-Based Learning Approaches in Meteorology

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Charlton-Perez, Andrew James

2013-01-01

Problem-Based Learning, despite recent controversies about its effectiveness, is used extensively as a teaching method throughout higher education. In meteorology, there has been little attempt to incorporate Problem-Based Learning techniques into the curriculum. Motivated by a desire to enhance the reflective engagement of students within a…

Projections of meteorological and snow conditions in the Pyrenees using adjusted EURO-CORDEX climate projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verfaillie, Deborah; Déqué, Michel; Morin, Samuel; Soubeyroux, Jean-Michel; Lafaysse, Matthieu

2017-04-01

Current and future availability of seasonal snow is a recurring topic in mountain regions such as the Pyrenees, where winter tourism and hydropower production are large contributors to the regional revenues in France, Spain and Andorra. Associated changes in river discharges, their consequences on water storage management, the future vulnerability of Pyrenean ecosystems as well as the occurrence of climate-related hazards such as debris flows and avalanches are also under consideration. However, to generate projections of snow conditions, a traditional dynamical downscaling approach featuring spatial resolutions typically between 10 and 50 km is not sufficient to capture the fine-scale processes and thresholds at play. Indeed, the altitudinal resolution matters, since the phase of precipitation is mainly controlled by the temperature which is altitude-dependent. Moreover, simulations from general circulation models (GCMs) and regional climate models (RCMs) suffer from biases compared to local observations, and often provide outputs at too coarse time resolution to drive impact models. RCM simulations must therefore be adjusted before they can be used to drive specific models such as land surface models. In this study, time series of hourly temperature, precipitation, wind speed, humidity, and short- and longwave radiation were generated over the Pyrenees for the period 1950-2100, by using a new approach (named ADAMONT for ADjustment of RCM outputs to MOuNTain regions) based on quantile mapping applied to daily data, followed by time disaggregation accounting for weather patterns selection. Meteorological observations used for the quantile mapping consist of the regional scale reanalysis SAFRAN, which operates at the scale of homogeneous areas on the order of 1000 km2 within which meteorological conditions vary only with elevation. SAFRAN combines large-scale NWP reanalysis (ERA40, ARPEGE) with in-situ meteorological observations. The SAFRAN reanalysis is available over the entire Pyrenean chain since 1980. Outputs from EURO-CORDEX simulations spanning 6 different RCMs forced by 6 different GCMs under 3 representative concentration pathways scenarios (RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5) over Europe were downscaled at the massif scale and for 300 m elevation bands and statistically adjusted against the SAFRAN reanalysis. These corrected fields were then used to force the SURFEX/ISBA-Crocus land surface model over the Pyrenees. Here we present as an example a reanalysis and future projections (using adjusted EURO-CORDEX data) of meteorological and snow conditions obtained using this method at the site of La Mongie in the French Pyrenees, which we compare to in-situ observations carried out since the 1970s. These results further enable us to identify and apportion the main drivers for changes in snow conditions at the site, and the various uncertainty components at play. This work is a direct contribution of the French GICC ADAMONT project, and of the Interreg project "Clim'Py", aiming to develop the Pyrenean Observatory of Climate Change.

Long-term hydrometeorological trends in the Midwest region based on a century long gridded hydrometeorological dataset and simulations from a macro-scale hydrology model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chiu, C. M.; Hamlet, A. F.

2014-12-01

Climate change is likely to impact the Great Lakes region and Midwest region via changes in Great Lakes water levels, agricultural impacts, river flooding, urban stormwater impacts, drought, water temperature, and impacts to terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. Self-consistent and temporally homogeneous long-term data sets of precipitation and temperature over the entire Great Lakes region and Midwest regions are needed to provide inputs to hydrologic models, assess historical trends in hydroclimatic variables, and downscale global and regional-scale climate models. To support these needs a new hybrid gridded meteorological forcing dataset at 1/16 degree resolution based on data from co-op station records, the U. S Historical Climatology Network (HCN) , the Historical Canadian Climate Database (HCCD), and Precipitation Regression on Independent Slopes Method (PRISM) has been assembled over the Great Lakes and Midwest region from 1915-2012 at daily time step. These data were then used as inputs to the macro-scale Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model, implemented over the Midwest and Great Lakes region at 1/16 degree resolution, to produce simulated hydrologic variables that are amenable to long-term trend analysis. Trends in precipitation and temperature from the new meteorological driving data sets, as well as simulated hydrometeorological variables such as snowpack, soil moisture, runoff, and evaporation over the 20th century are presented and discussed.

Observed correlations between aerosol and cloud properties in an Indian Ocean trade cumulus regime

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pistone, Kristina; Praveen, Puppala S.; Thomas, Rick M.

There are many contributing factors which determine the micro- and macrophysical properties of clouds, including atmospheric vertical structure, dominant meteorological conditions, and aerosol concentration, all of which may be coupled to one another. In the quest to determine aerosol effects on clouds, these potential relationships must be understood. Here we describe several observed correlations between aerosol conditions and cloud and atmospheric properties in the Indian Ocean winter monsoon season.In the CARDEX (Cloud, Aerosol, Radiative forcing, Dynamics EXperiment) field campaign conducted in February and March 2012 in the northern Indian Ocean, continuous measurements were made of atmospheric precipitable water vapor (PWV)more » and the liquid water path (LWP) of trade cumulus clouds, concurrent with measurements of water vapor flux, cloud and aerosol vertical profiles, meteorological data, and surface and total-column aerosol from instrumentation at a ground observatory and on small unmanned aircraft. We present observations which indicate a positive correlation between aerosol and cloud LWP only when considering cases with low atmospheric water vapor (PWV < 40 kg m –2), a criterion which acts to filter the data to control for the natural meteorological variability in the region.We then use the aircraft and ground-based measurements to explore possible mechanisms behind this observed aerosol–LWP correlation. The increase in cloud liquid water is found to coincide with a lowering of the cloud base, which is itself attributable to increased boundary layer humidity in polluted conditions. High pollution is found to correlate with both higher temperatures and higher humidity measured throughout the boundary layer. A large-scale analysis, using satellite observations and meteorological reanalysis, corroborates these covariations: high-pollution cases are shown to originate as a highly polluted boundary layer air mass approaching the observatory from a northwesterly direction. The source air mass exhibits both higher temperatures and higher humidity in the polluted cases. While the warmer temperatures may be attributable to aerosol absorption of solar radiation over the subcontinent, the factors responsible for the coincident high humidity are less evident: the high-aerosol conditions are observed to disperse with air mass evolution, along with a weakening of the high-temperature anomaly, while the high-humidity condition is observed to strengthen in magnitude as the polluted air mass moves over the ocean toward the site of the CARDEX observations. In conclusion, potential causal mechanisms of the observed correlations, including meteorological or aerosol-induced factors, are explored, though future research will be needed for a more complete and quantitative understanding of the aerosol–humidity relationship.« less

Observed correlations between aerosol and cloud properties in an Indian Ocean trade cumulus regime

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pistone, Kristina; Praveen, Puppala S.; Thomas, Rick M.; Ramanathan, Veerabhadran; Wilcox, Eric M.; Bender, Frida A.-M.

2016-04-01

There are many contributing factors which determine the micro- and macrophysical properties of clouds, including atmospheric vertical structure, dominant meteorological conditions, and aerosol concentration, all of which may be coupled to one another. In the quest to determine aerosol effects on clouds, these potential relationships must be understood. Here we describe several observed correlations between aerosol conditions and cloud and atmospheric properties in the Indian Ocean winter monsoon season.In the CARDEX (Cloud, Aerosol, Radiative forcing, Dynamics EXperiment) field campaign conducted in February and March 2012 in the northern Indian Ocean, continuous measurements were made of atmospheric precipitable water vapor (PWV) and the liquid water path (LWP) of trade cumulus clouds, concurrent with measurements of water vapor flux, cloud and aerosol vertical profiles, meteorological data, and surface and total-column aerosol from instrumentation at a ground observatory and on small unmanned aircraft. We present observations which indicate a positive correlation between aerosol and cloud LWP only when considering cases with low atmospheric water vapor (PWV < 40 kg m-2), a criterion which acts to filter the data to control for the natural meteorological variability in the region.We then use the aircraft and ground-based measurements to explore possible mechanisms behind this observed aerosol-LWP correlation. The increase in cloud liquid water is found to coincide with a lowering of the cloud base, which is itself attributable to increased boundary layer humidity in polluted conditions. High pollution is found to correlate with both higher temperatures and higher humidity measured throughout the boundary layer. A large-scale analysis, using satellite observations and meteorological reanalysis, corroborates these covariations: high-pollution cases are shown to originate as a highly polluted boundary layer air mass approaching the observatory from a northwesterly direction. The source air mass exhibits both higher temperatures and higher humidity in the polluted cases. While the warmer temperatures may be attributable to aerosol absorption of solar radiation over the subcontinent, the factors responsible for the coincident high humidity are less evident: the high-aerosol conditions are observed to disperse with air mass evolution, along with a weakening of the high-temperature anomaly, while the high-humidity condition is observed to strengthen in magnitude as the polluted air mass moves over the ocean toward the site of the CARDEX observations. Potential causal mechanisms of the observed correlations, including meteorological or aerosol-induced factors, are explored, though future research will be needed for a more complete and quantitative understanding of the aerosol-humidity relationship.

Observed correlations between aerosol and cloud properties in an Indian Ocean trade cumulus regime

DOE PAGES

Pistone, Kristina; Praveen, Puppala S.; Thomas, Rick M.; ...

2016-04-27

There are many contributing factors which determine the micro- and macrophysical properties of clouds, including atmospheric vertical structure, dominant meteorological conditions, and aerosol concentration, all of which may be coupled to one another. In the quest to determine aerosol effects on clouds, these potential relationships must be understood. Here we describe several observed correlations between aerosol conditions and cloud and atmospheric properties in the Indian Ocean winter monsoon season.In the CARDEX (Cloud, Aerosol, Radiative forcing, Dynamics EXperiment) field campaign conducted in February and March 2012 in the northern Indian Ocean, continuous measurements were made of atmospheric precipitable water vapor (PWV)more » and the liquid water path (LWP) of trade cumulus clouds, concurrent with measurements of water vapor flux, cloud and aerosol vertical profiles, meteorological data, and surface and total-column aerosol from instrumentation at a ground observatory and on small unmanned aircraft. We present observations which indicate a positive correlation between aerosol and cloud LWP only when considering cases with low atmospheric water vapor (PWV < 40 kg m –2), a criterion which acts to filter the data to control for the natural meteorological variability in the region.We then use the aircraft and ground-based measurements to explore possible mechanisms behind this observed aerosol–LWP correlation. The increase in cloud liquid water is found to coincide with a lowering of the cloud base, which is itself attributable to increased boundary layer humidity in polluted conditions. High pollution is found to correlate with both higher temperatures and higher humidity measured throughout the boundary layer. A large-scale analysis, using satellite observations and meteorological reanalysis, corroborates these covariations: high-pollution cases are shown to originate as a highly polluted boundary layer air mass approaching the observatory from a northwesterly direction. The source air mass exhibits both higher temperatures and higher humidity in the polluted cases. While the warmer temperatures may be attributable to aerosol absorption of solar radiation over the subcontinent, the factors responsible for the coincident high humidity are less evident: the high-aerosol conditions are observed to disperse with air mass evolution, along with a weakening of the high-temperature anomaly, while the high-humidity condition is observed to strengthen in magnitude as the polluted air mass moves over the ocean toward the site of the CARDEX observations. In conclusion, potential causal mechanisms of the observed correlations, including meteorological or aerosol-induced factors, are explored, though future research will be needed for a more complete and quantitative understanding of the aerosol–humidity relationship.« less

Building a QC Database of Meteorological Data From NASA KSC and the United States Air Force's Eastern Range

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brenton, James C.; Barbre, Robert E.; Orcutt, John M.; Decker, Ryan K.

2018-01-01

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) Natural Environments Branch (EV44) has provided atmospheric databases and analysis in support of space vehicle design and day-of-launch operations for NASA and commercial launch vehicle programs launching from the NASA Kennedy Space Center (KSC), co-located on the United States Air Force's Eastern Range (ER) at the Cape Canaveral Air Force Station. The ER is one of the most heavily instrumented sites in the United States measuring various atmospheric parameters on a continuous basis. An inherent challenge with the large databases that EV44 receives from the ER consists of ensuring erroneous data are removed from the databases, and thus excluded from launch vehicle design analyses. EV44 has put forth great effort in developing quality control (QC) procedures for individual meteorological instruments; however, no standard QC procedures for all databases currently exist resulting in QC databases that have inconsistencies in variables, methodologies, and periods of record. The goal of this activity is to use the previous efforts by EV44 to develop a standardized set of QC procedures from which to build flags within the meteorological databases from KSC and the ER, while maintaining open communication with end users from the launch community to develop ways to improve, adapt and grow the QC database. Details of the QC checks are described. The flagged data points will be plotted in a graphical user interface (GUI) as part of a manual confirmation that the flagged data do indeed need to be removed from the archive. As the rate of launches increases with additional launch vehicle programs, more emphasis is being placed to continually update and check weather databases for data quality before use in launch vehicle design and certification analyses.

The influence of weather on migraine – are migraine attacks predictable?

PubMed Central

Hoffmann, Jan; Schirra, Tonio; Lo, Hendra; Neeb, Lars; Reuter, Uwe; Martus, Peter

2015-01-01

Objective The study aimed at elucidating a potential correlation between specific meteorological variables and the prevalence and intensity of migraine attacks as well as exploring a potential individual predictability of a migraine attack based on meteorological variables and their changes. Methods Attack prevalence and intensity of 100 migraineurs were correlated with atmospheric pressure, relative air humidity, and ambient temperature in 4-h intervals over 12 consecutive months. For each correlation, meteorological parameters at the time of the migraine attack as well as their variation within the preceding 24 h were analyzed. For migraineurs showing a positive correlation, logistic regression analysis was used to assess the predictability of a migraine attack based on meteorological information. Results In a subgroup of migraineurs, a significant weather sensitivity could be observed. In contrast, pooled analysis of all patients did not reveal a significant association. An individual prediction of a migraine attack based on meteorological data was not possible, mainly as a result of the small prevalence of attacks. Interpretation The results suggest that only a subgroup of migraineurs is sensitive to specific weather conditions. Our findings may provide an explanation as to why previous studies, which commonly rely on a pooled analysis, show inconclusive results. The lack of individual attack predictability indicates that the use of preventive measures based on meteorological conditions is not feasible. PMID:25642431

Drought propagation and its relation with catchment biophysical characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alvarez-Garreton, C. D.; Lara, A.; Garreaud, R. D.

2016-12-01

Droughts propagate in the hydrological cycle from meteorological to soil moisture to hydrological droughts. To understand the drivers of this process is of paramount importance since the economic and societal impacts in water resources are directly related with hydrological droughts (and not with meteorological droughts, which have been most studied). This research analyses drought characteristics over a large region and identify its main exogenous (climate forcing) and endogenous (biophysical characteristics such as land cover type and topography) explanatory factors. The study region is Chile, which covers seven major climatic subtypes according to Köppen system, it has unique geographic characteristics, very sharp topography and a wide range of landscapes and vegetation conditions. Meteorological and hydrological droughts (deficit in precipitation and streamflow, respectively) are characterized by their durations and standardized deficit volumes using a variable threshold method, over 300 representative catchments (located between 27°S and 50°S). To quantify the propagation from meteorological to hydrological drought, we propose a novel drought attenuation index (DAI), calculated as the ratio between the meteorological drought severity slope and the hydrological drought severity slope. DAI varies from zero (catchment that attenuates completely a meteorological drought) to one (the meteorological drought is fully propagated through the hydrological cycle). This novel index provides key (and comparable) information about drought propagation over a wide range of different catchments, which has been highlighted as a major research gap. Similar drought indicators across the wide range of catchments are then linked with catchment biophysical characteristics. A thorough compilation of land cover information (including the percentage of native forests, grass land, urban and industrial areas, glaciers, water bodies and no vegetated areas), catchment physical properties, and climatic conditions is done for all the catchments. Data mining techniques are applied to identify the main exogenous and endogenous factors determining drought characteristics and propagation.

Evaluation of quantitative precipitation forecasts by TIGGE ensembles for south China during the presummer rainy season

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Ling; Luo, Yali

2017-08-01

Based on The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) data set, this study evaluates the ability of global ensemble prediction systems (EPSs) from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), U.S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction, Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), Korean Meteorological Administration, and China Meteorological Administration (CMA) to predict presummer rainy season (April-June) precipitation in south China. Evaluation of 5 day forecasts in three seasons (2013-2015) demonstrates the higher skill of probability matching forecasts compared to simple ensemble mean forecasts and shows that the deterministic forecast is a close second. The EPSs overestimate light-to-heavy rainfall (0.1 to 30 mm/12 h) and underestimate heavier rainfall (>30 mm/12 h), with JMA being the worst. By analyzing the synoptic situations predicted by the identified more skillful (ECMWF) and less skillful (JMA and CMA) EPSs and the ensemble sensitivity for four representative cases of torrential rainfall, the transport of warm-moist air into south China by the low-level southwesterly flow, upstream of the torrential rainfall regions, is found to be a key synoptic factor that controls the quantitative precipitation forecast. The results also suggest that prediction of locally produced torrential rainfall is more challenging than prediction of more extensively distributed torrential rainfall. A slight improvement in the performance is obtained by shortening the forecast lead time from 30-36 h to 18-24 h to 6-12 h for the cases with large-scale forcing, but not for the locally produced cases.

Infrasonic emissions from local meteorological events: A summary of data taken throughout 1984

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zuckerwar, A. J.

1986-01-01

Records of infrasonic signals, propagating through the Earth's atmosphere in the frequency band 2 to 16 Hz, were gathered on a three microphone array at Langley Research Center throughout the year 1984. Digital processing of these records fulfilled three functions: time delay estimation, based on an adaptive filter; source location, determined from the time delay estimates; and source identification, based on spectral analysis. Meteorological support was provided by significant meteorological advisories, lightning locator plots, and daily reports from the Air Weather Service. The infrasonic data are organized into four characteristic signatures, one of which is believed to contain emissions from local meteorological sources. This class of signature prevailed only on those days when major global meteorological events appeared in or near to eastern United States. Eleven case histories are examined. Practical application of the infrasonic array in a low level wing shear alert system is discussed.

[Application of regression tree in analyzing the effects of climate factors on NDVI in loess hilly area of Shaanxi Province].

PubMed

Liu, Yang; Lü, Yi-he; Zheng, Hai-feng; Chen, Li-ding

2010-05-01

Based on the 10-day SPOT VEGETATION NDVI data and the daily meteorological data from 1998 to 2007 in Yan' an City, the main meteorological variables affecting the annual and interannual variations of NDVI were determined by using regression tree. It was found that the effects of test meteorological variables on the variability of NDVI differed with seasons and time lags. Temperature and precipitation were the most important meteorological variables affecting the annual variation of NDVI, and the average highest temperature was the most important meteorological variable affecting the inter-annual variation of NDVI. Regression tree was very powerful in determining the key meteorological variables affecting NDVI variation, but could not build quantitative relations between NDVI and meteorological variables, which limited its further and wider application.

IDC Re-Engineering Phase 2 Iteration E2 Use Case Realizations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Harris, James M.; Burns, John F.; Hamlet, Benjamin R.

2016-06-01

This architecturally significant use case describes how the System acquires meteorological data to build atmospheric models used in automatic and interactive processing of infrasound data. The System requests the latest available high-resolution global meteorological data from external data centers and puts it into the correct formats for generation of infrasound propagation models. The system moves the meteorological data from Data Acquisition Partition to the Data Processing Partition and stores the meteorological data. The System builds a new atmospheric model based on the meteorological data. This use case is architecturally significant because it describes acquiring meteorological data from various sources andmore » creating dynamic atmospheric transmission model to support the prediction of infrasonic signal detection« less

Comparison of Ensemble Mean and Deterministic Forecasts for Long-Range Airlift Fuel Planning

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-03-27

honors in volleyball . In 2002, she transferred to the University of Oklahoma, where she earned a bachelor’s degree in Meteorology and was com- missioned...instrumental in safely estab- lishing remotely-piloted aircraft operations. She was a member of the Air Force Women’s Volleyball team in 2007, 2009, and 2010, as

Eliminate the Army and Air Force Reserves: Building a Robust National Guard to Meet 21st Century Operational Challenges

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-04-04

structure. Weather Reconnaissance capability would aid the Guard in gathering meteorological intelligence in preparation for hurricane or tornado domestic...Reserve units by relating it to an emergency response in Missouri. On May 22, 2011, a tornado struck Joplin, killing 158 people and injuring 1,000

An Investigation of Momentum Exchange Parameterizations and Atmospheric Forcing for the Coastal Mixing and Optics Program

DTIC Science & Technology

1998-09-01

Stenner , 1996.] Figure 2.2. Coastal Mixing and Optics central 3 m discus buoy. [From Baumgartner and Anderson, 1997 (Figure 4).] 12 2.2.2. SoNIC...Meteorology, 78, 247-290. Stenner , R., 1996: Coastal Mixing and Optics Experimental Site (http://wavelet.apl.washington.edu/CMO/CMO_bath.html). Thiermann

KSC-01pp0877

NASA Image and Video Library

2001-04-16

Workers (at left) at Astrotech, Titusville, Fla., observe the inside of the solar panel on the GOES-M satellite. The GOES-M provides weather imagery and quantitative sounding data used to support weather forecasting, severe storm tracking and meteorological research. The satellite is scheduled to launch July 12 on an Atlas-IIA booster, Centaur upper stage from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station

KSC-01pp0879

NASA Image and Video Library

2001-04-16

Workers at Astrotech, Titusville, Fla., look at components on the GOES-M satellite after opening the solar panel. The GOES-M provides weather imagery and quantitative sounding data used to support weather forecasting, severe storm tracking and meteorological research. The satellite is scheduled to launch July 12 on an Atlas-IIA booster, Centaur upper stage from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station

KSC-01pp0880

NASA Image and Video Library

2001-04-16

Workers at Astrotech, Titusville, Fla., confer about their findings after opening the solar panel on the GOES-M satellite. The GOES-M provides weather imagery and quantitative sounding data used to support weather forecasting, severe storm tracking and meteorological research. The satellite is scheduled to launch July 12 on an Atlas-IIA booster, Centaur upper stage from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station

KSC-01pp0876

NASA Image and Video Library

2001-04-16

Workers at Astrotech, Titusville, Fla., observe the solar panel on the GOES-M satellite as they open it. The GOES-M provides weather imagery and quantitative sounding data used to support weather forecasting, severe storm tracking and meteorological research. The satellite is scheduled to launch July 12 on an Atlas-IIA booster, Centaur upper stage from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station

Weather Research and Forecasting Model Wind Sensitivity Study at Edwards Air Force Base, CA

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Watson, Leela R.; Bauman, William H., III

2008-01-01

NASA prefers to land the space shuttle at Kennedy Space Center (KSC). When weather conditions violate Flight Rules at KSC, NASA will usually divert the shuttle landing to Edwards Air Force Base (EAFB) in Southern California. But forecasting surface winds at EAFB is a challenge for the Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) forecasters due to the complex terrain that surrounds EAFB, One particular phenomena identified by SMG is that makes it difficult to forecast the EAFB surface winds is called "wind cycling". This occurs when wind speeds and directions oscillate among towers near the EAFB runway leading to a challenging deorbit bum forecast for shuttle landings. The large-scale numerical weather prediction models cannot properly resolve the wind field due to their coarse horizontal resolutions, so a properly tuned high-resolution mesoscale model is needed. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model meets this requirement. The AMU assessed the different WRF model options to determine which configuration best predicted surface wind speed and direction at EAFB, To do so, the AMU compared the WRF model performance using two hot start initializations with the Advanced Research WRF and Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model dynamical cores and compared model performance while varying the physics options.

Coupling the WRF model with a temperature index model based on remote sensing for snowmelt simulations in a river basin in the Altay Mountains, northwest China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, X.; Shen, Y.; Wang, N.; Pan, X.; Zhang, W.; He, J.; Wang, G.

2017-12-01

Snowmelt water is an important freshwater resource in the Altay Mountains in northwest China, and it is also crucial for local ecological system, economic and social sustainable development; however, warming climate and rapid spring snowmelt can cause floods that endanger both eco-environment and public and personal property and safety. This study simulates snowmelt in the Kayiertesi River catchment using a temperature-index model based on remote sensing coupled with high-resolution meteorological data obtained from NCEP reanalysis fields that were downscaled using Weather Research Forecasting model, then bias-corrected using a statistical downscaled model. Validation of the forcing data revealed that the high-resolution meteorological fields derived from downscaled NCEP reanalysis were reliable for driving the snowmelt model. Parameters of temperature-index model based on remote sensing were calibrated for spring 2014, and model performance was validated using MODIS snow cover and snow observations from spring 2012. The results show that the temperature-index model based on remote sensing performed well, with a simulation mean relative error of 6.7% and a Nash-Sutchliffe efficiency of 0.98 in spring 2012 in the river of Altay Mountains. Based on the reliable distributed snow water equivalent simulation, daily snowmelt runoff was calculated for spring 2012 in the basin. In the study catchment, spring snowmelt runoff accounts for 72% of spring runoff and 21% of annual runoff. Snowmelt is the main source of runoff for the catchment and should be managed and utilized effectively. The results provide a basis for snowmelt runoff predictions, so as to prevent snowmelt-induced floods, and also provide a generalizable approach that can be applied to other remote locations where high-density, long-term observational data is lacking.

Observed Cloud Properties Above the Northern Indian Ocean During CARDEX 2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, L.; Wilcox, E. M.

2016-12-01

An analysis of cloud microphysical, macrophysical and radiative properties during the dry winter monsoon season above the northern Indian Ocean is presented. The Cloud Aerosol Radiative Forcing Experiment (CARDEX), conducted from 16 February to 30 March 2012 at the Maldives Climate Observatory on Hanimaadhoo (MCOH), used autonomous unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to measure the aerosol profiles, water vapor flux and cloud properties concurrent with continuous ground measurements of surface aerosol and meteorological variables as well as the total-column precipitable water vapor (PWV) and the cloud liquid water path (LWP). Here we present the cloud properties only for the cases with lower atmospheric water vapor using the criterion that the PWV less than 40 kg/m2. This criterion acts to filter the data to control for the natural meteorological variability in the region according to previous studies. The high polluted case is found to correlate with warmer temperature, higher relative humidity in boundary layer and lower lifted condensation level (LCL). Micro Pulse Lidar (MPL) retrieved cloud base height coincides with calculated LCL height which is lower for high polluted case. Meanwhile satellite retrieved cloud top height didn't show obvious variation indicating cloud deepening which is consistent with the observed greater cloud LWP in high polluted case. Those high polluted clouds are associated with more cloud droplets and smaller effective radius and are generally becoming narrower due to the stronger cloud side evaporation-entrainment effect and becoming deeper due to more moist static energy. Clouds in high polluted condition become brighter with higher albedo which can cause a net shortwave forcing over -40 W/m2 in this region.

Research on Application of Automatic Weather Station Based on Internet of Things

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jianyun, Chen; Yunfan, Sun; Chunyan, Lin

2017-12-01

In this paper, the Internet of Things is briefly introduced, and then its application in the weather station is studied. A method of data acquisition and transmission based on NB-iot communication mode is proposed, Introduction of Internet of things technology, Sensor digital and independent power supply as the technical basis, In the construction of Automatic To realize the intelligent interconnection of the automatic weather station, and then to form an automatic weather station based on the Internet of things. A network structure of automatic weather station based on Internet of things technology is constructed to realize the independent operation of intelligent sensors and wireless data transmission. Research on networking data collection and dissemination of meteorological data, through the data platform for data analysis, the preliminary work of meteorological information publishing standards, networking of meteorological information receiving terminal provides the data interface, to the wisdom of the city, the wisdom of the purpose of the meteorological service.

NASA Cold Land Processes Experiment (CLPX 2002/03): Ground-based and near-surface meteorological observations

Treesearch

Kelly Elder; Don Cline; Angus Goodbody; Paul Houser; Glen E. Liston; Larry Mahrt; Nick Rutter

2009-01-01

A short-term meteorological database has been developed for the Cold Land Processes Experiment (CLPX). This database includes meteorological observations from stations designed and deployed exclusively for CLPXas well as observations available from other sources located in the small regional study area (SRSA) in north-central Colorado. The measured weather parameters...

Analysis of southeast Australian zooplankton observations of 1938-42 using synoptic oceanographic conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baird, Mark E.; Everett, Jason D.; Suthers, Iain M.

2011-03-01

The research vessel Warreen obtained 1742 planktonic samples along the continental shelf and slope of southeast Australia from 1938-42, representing the earliest spatially and temporally resolved zooplankton data from Australian marine waters. In this paper, Warreen observations along the southeast Australian seaboard from 28°S to 38°S are interpreted based on synoptic meteorological and oceanographic conditions and ocean climatologies. Meteorological conditions are based on the NOAA-CIRES 20th Century Reanalysis Project; oceanographic conditions use Warreen hydrological observations, and the ocean climatology is the CSIRO Atlas of Regional Seas. The Warreen observations were undertaken in waters on average 0.45 °C cooler than the climatological average, and included the longest duration El Niño of the 20th century. In northern New South Wales (NSW), week time-scale events dominate zooplankton response. In August 1940 an unusual winter upwelling event occurred in northern NSW driven by a stronger than average East Australian Current (EAC) and anomalous northerly winds that resulted in high salp and larvacean abundance. In January 1941 a strong upwelling event between 28° and 33°S resulted in a filament of upwelled water being advected south and alongshore, which was low in zooplankton biovolume. In southern NSW a seasonal cycle in physical and planktonic characteristics is observed. In January 1941 the poleward extension of the EAC was strong, advecting more tropical tunicate species southward. Zooplankton abundance and distribution on the continental shelf and slope are more dependent on weekly to monthly timescales on local oceanographic and meteorological conditions than continental-scale interannual trends. The interpretation of historical zooplankton observations of the waters off southeast Australia for the purpose of quantifying anthropogenic impacts will be improved with the use of regional hindcasts of synoptic ocean and atmospheric weather that can explain some of the physically forced natural variability.

Data processing for the DMSP microwave radiometer system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rigone, J. L.; Stogryn, A. P.

1977-01-01

A software program was developed and tested to process microwave radiometry data to be acquired by the microwave sensor (SSM/T) on the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program spacecraft. The SSM/T 7-channel microwave radiometer and systems data will be data-linked to Air Force Global Weather Central (AFGWC) where they will be merged with ephemeris data prior to product processing for use in the AFGWC upper air data base (UADB). The overall system utilizes an integrated design to provide atmospheric temperature soundings for global applications. The fully automated processing at AFGWC was accomplished by four related computer processor programs to produce compatible UADB soundings, evaluate system performance, and update the a priori developed inversion matrices. Tests with simulated data produced results significantly better than climatology.

Shuttle derived atmospheric density model. Part 1: Comparisons of the various ambient atmospheric source data with derived parameters from the first twelve STS entry flights, a data package for AOTV atmospheric development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Findlay, J. T.; Kelly, G. M.; Troutman, P. A.

1984-01-01

The ambient atmospheric parameter comparisons versus derived values from the first twelve Space Shuttle Orbiter entry flights are presented. Available flights, flight data products, and data sources utilized are reviewed. Comparisons are presented based on remote meteorological measurements as well as two comprehensive models which incorporate latitudinal and seasonal effects. These are the Air Force 1978 Reference Atmosphere and the Marshall Space Flight Center Global Reference Model (GRAM). Atmospheric structure sensible in the Shuttle flight data is shown and discussed. A model for consideration in Aero-assisted Orbital Transfer Vehicle (AOTV) trajectory analysis, proposed to modify the GRAM data to emulate Shuttle experiments.

[Spatio-temporal change of sand-fixing function and its driving forces in desertification control ecological function area of Hunshandake, China].

PubMed

Shen, Lu; Tian, Mei-rong; Gao, Ji-xi; Qian, Jin-ping

2016-01-01

Soil erosion is an important ecological and environmental problem in Hunshandake Desert, and the sand-fixing function determines the degree of ecological security in the entire region. In order to clarify the situation of windbreak and sand fixation in Hunshandake area, and to guide the prevention and treatment of desertification on regional scale, based on the meteorological and remote sensing data, this paper quantitatively analyzed the temporal and spatial pattern of windbreak and sand fixation ability between 2000-2010 by the revised wind erosion equation (RWEQ) model, meanwhile, the driving forces for each county ( or banner) in the functional zone were analyzed with the method of principal component analysis. The results showed that there was a fluctuation of the sand fixing capacity in Hunshandake over time, generally rendering a decline trend. The coniferous forest and grassland had strong windbreak and sand fixation capacity in unit area among the various land categories. In terms of spatial distribution, the windbreak and sand fixation function in western and southeastern region was weak and needed to be strengthened with ecological restoration efforts. Through the study of the social driving forces of each administrative region in the function zone, there were 3 main social driving forces of soil erosion in the administrative functions: the intensity of input-output, the level of economic development and the level of agriculture-husbandry development.

Assimilating concentration observations for transport and dispersion modeling in a meandering wind field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haupt, Sue Ellen; Beyer-Lout, Anke; Long, Kerrie J.; Young, George S.

Assimilating concentration data into an atmospheric transport and dispersion model can provide information to improve downwind concentration forecasts. The forecast model is typically a one-way coupled set of equations: the meteorological equations impact the concentration, but the concentration does not generally affect the meteorological field. Thus, indirect methods of using concentration data to influence the meteorological variables are required. The problem studied here involves a simple wind field forcing Gaussian dispersion. Two methods of assimilating concentration data to infer the wind direction are demonstrated. The first method is Lagrangian in nature and treats the puff as an entity using feature extraction coupled with nudging. The second method is an Eulerian field approach akin to traditional variational approaches, but minimizes the error by using a genetic algorithm (GA) to directly optimize the match between observations and predictions. Both methods show success at inferring the wind field. The GA-variational method, however, is more accurate but requires more computational time. Dynamic assimilation of a continuous release modeled by a Gaussian plume is also demonstrated using the genetic algorithm approach.

Safety on Earth From MARSS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2002-01-01

ENSCO, Inc., developed the Meteorological and Atmospheric Real-time Safety Support (MARSS) system for real-time assessment of meteorological data displays and toxic material spills. MARSS also provides mock scenarios to guide preparations for emergencies involving meteorological hazards and toxic substances. Developed under a Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) contract with Kennedy Space Center, MARSS was designed to measure how safe NASA and Air Force range safety personnel are while performing weather sensitive operations around launch pads. The system augments a ground operations safety plan that limits certain work operations to very specific weather conditions. It also provides toxic hazard prediction models to assist safety managers in planning for and reacting to releases of hazardous materials. MARSS can be used in agricultural, industrial, and scientific applications that require weather forecasts and predictions of toxic smoke movement. MARSS is also designed to protect urban areas, seaports, rail facilities, and airports from airborne releases of hazardous chemical substances. The system can integrate with local facility protection units and provide instant threat detection and assessment data that is reportable for local and national distribution.

Web-based data acquisition and management system for GOSAT validation Lidar data analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okumura, Hiroshi; Takubo, Shoichiro; Kawasaki, Takeru; Abdullah, Indra N.; Uchino, Osamu; Morino, Isamu; Yokota, Tatsuya; Nagai, Tomohiro; Sakai, Tetsu; Maki, Takashi; Arai, Kohei

2012-11-01

An web-base data acquisition and management system for GOSAT (Greenhouse gases Observation SATellite) validation lidar data analysis is developed. The system consists of data acquisition sub-system (DAS) and data management sub-system (DMS). DAS written in Perl language acquires AMeDAS ground-level meteorological data, Rawinsonde upper-air meteorological data, ground-level oxidant data, skyradiometer data, skyview camera images, meteorological satellite IR image data and GOSAT validation lidar data. DMS written in PHP language demonstrates satellite-pass date and all acquired data.

Extreme storm surge modelling in the North Sea. The role of the sea state, forcing frequency and spatial forcing resolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ridder, Nina; de Vries, Hylke; Drijfhout, Sybren; van den Brink, Henk; van Meijgaard, Erik; de Vries, Hans

2018-02-01

This study shows that storm surge model performance in the North Sea is mostly unaffected by the application of temporal variations of surface drag due to changes in sea state provided the choice of a suitable constant Charnock parameter in the sea-state-independent case. Including essential meteorological features on smaller scales and minimising interpolation errors by increasing forcing data resolution are shown to be more important for the improvement of model performance particularly at the high tail of the probability distribution. This is found in a modelling study using WAQUA/DCSMv5 by evaluating the influence of a realistic air-sea momentum transfer parameterization and comparing it to the influence of changes in the spatial and temporal resolution of the applied forcing fields in an effort to support the improvement of impact and climate analysis studies. Particular attention is given to the representation of extreme water levels over the past decades based on the example of the Netherlands. For this, WAQUA/DCSMv5 is forced with ERA-Interim reanalysis data. Model results are obtained from a set of different forcing fields, which either (i) include a wave-state-dependent Charnock parameter or (ii) apply a constant Charnock parameter ( α C h = 0.032) tuned for young sea states in the North Sea, but differ in their spatial and/or temporal resolution. Increasing forcing field resolution from roughly 79 to 12 km through dynamically downscaling can reduce the modelled low bias, depending on coastal station, by up to 0.25 m for the modelled extreme water levels with a 1-year return period and between 0.1 m and 0.5 m for extreme surge heights.

Air Force Global Weather Central System Architecture Study. Final System/Subsystem Summary Report. Volume 2. Requirements Compilation and Analysis. Part 3. Characteristics Summaries and Network Analysis

DTIC Science & Technology

1976-03-01

DB DC DCT DDB DET DF DFS DML DMS DMSP DOD DS DSARC DT EDB EDS EG ESSA ETAC EWO Control and Reporting Post Cathode Ray Tube...National and Aviation Meteorological Facsimile Network NC - Network Control NCA - National Command Authority NCAR - National Center for Atmospheric

KSC01pp0808

NASA Image and Video Library

2001-04-17

Workers at Astrotech, Titusville, Fla., begin deploying the magnetometer boom on the GOES-M satellite. The satellite is undergoing testing at Astrotech. The GOES-M provides weather imagery and quantitative sounding data used to support weather forecasting, severe storm tracking and meteorological research. The satellite is scheduled to launch July 12 on an Atlas-IIA booster, Centaur upper stage from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station

KSC01pp0795

NASA Image and Video Library

2001-04-12

At Astrotech, Titusville, Fla., an overhead crane lifts the GOES-M (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite) from the transporter. The GOES-M provides weather imagery and quantitative sounding data used to support weather forecasting, severe storm tracking and meteorological research. The satellite will undergo testing at Astrotech before its scheduled launch July 12 on an Atlas-IIA booster, Centaur upper stage from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station

KSC01pp0798

NASA Image and Video Library

2001-04-12

At Astrotech, Titusville, Fla., workers look over the GOES-M satellite after removal of its protective cover. The GOES-M provides weather imagery and quantitative sounding data used to support weather forecasting, severe storm tracking and meteorological research. The satellite will undergo testing at Astrotech before its scheduled launch July 12 on an Atlas-IIA booster, Centaur upper stage from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station

KSC01pp0800

NASA Image and Video Library

2001-04-12

While an overhead crane lifts the GOES-M satellite at Astrotech, Titusville, Fla., workers check the underside. The GOES-M provides weather imagery and quantitative sounding data used to support weather forecasting, severe storm tracking and meteorological research. The satellite is undergoing testing at Astrotech before its scheduled launch July 12 on an Atlas-IIA booster, Centaur upper stage from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station

KSC01pp0803

NASA Image and Video Library

2001-04-12

At Astrotech, Titusville, Fla., the GOES-M satellite is lifted at an angle on a workstand. The satellite is undergoing testing at Astrotech. The GOES-M provides weather imagery and quantitative sounding data used to support weather forecasting, severe storm tracking and meteorological research. The satellite is scheduled to launch July 12 on an Atlas-IIA booster, Centaur upper stage from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station

KSC01pp0802

NASA Image and Video Library

2001-04-12

At Astrotech, Titusville, Fla., a worker (right) turns the GOES-M satellite, bringing its side into view. The GOES-M provides weather imagery and quantitative sounding data used to support weather forecasting, severe storm tracking and meteorological research. The satellite is undergoing testing at Astrotech before its scheduled launch July 12 on an Atlas-IIA booster, Centaur upper stage from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station

KSC01pp0809

NASA Image and Video Library

2001-04-17

Workers at Astrotech, Titusville, Fla., begin deploying the magnetometer boom on the GOES-M satellite. The satellite is undergoing testing at Astrotech. The GOES-M provides weather imagery and quantitative sounding data used to support weather forecasting, severe storm tracking and meteorological research. The satellite is scheduled to launch July 12 on an Atlas-IIA booster, Centaur upper stage from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station

KSC01pp0810

NASA Image and Video Library

2001-04-13

Workers at Astrotech, Titusville, Fla., deploy the magnetometer boom on the GOES-M satellite. The satellite is undergoing testing at Astrotech. The GOES-M provides weather imagery and quantitative sounding data used to support weather forecasting, severe storm tracking and meteorological research. The satellite is scheduled to launch July 12 on an Atlas-IIA booster, Centaur upper stage from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station

Sensitivity of Drought Processes to Runoff Parameterizations in East Asia with the Community Land Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, J. B.; Um, M. J.; Kim, Y.

2016-12-01

Drought is one of the most powerful and extensive disasters and has the highest annual average damage among all the disasters. Focusing on East Asia, where over one fifth of all the people in the world live, drought has impacted as well as been projected to impact the region significantly. .Therefore it is critical to reasonably simulate the drought phenomenon in the region and thus this study would focus on the reproducibility of drought with the NCAR CLM. In this study, we examine the propagation of drought processes with different runoff parameterization of CLM in East Asia. Two different schemes are used; TOPMODEL-based and VIC-based schemes, which differentiate the result of runoff through the surface and subsurface runoff parameterization. CLM with different runoff scheme are driven with two atmospheric forcings from CRU/NCEP and NCEP reanalysis data. Specifically, propagation of drought from meteorological, agricultural to hydrologic drought is investigated with different drought indices, estimated with not only model simulated results but also observational data. The indices include the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), standardized runoff index (SRI) and standardized soil moisture index (SSMI). Based on these indices, the drought characteristics such as intensity, frequency and spatial extent are investigated. At last, such drought assessments would reveal the possible model deficiencies in East Asia. AcknowledgementsThis work was supported by Basic Science Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) funded by the Ministry of Science, ICT & Future Planning (2015R1C1A2A01054800) and the Korea Meteorological Administration R&D Program under Grant KMIPA 2015-6180.

Spatial data standards meet meteorological data - pushing the boundaries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wagemann, Julia; Siemen, Stephan; Lamy-Thepaut, Sylvie

2017-04-01

The data archive of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) holds around 120 PB of data and is world's largest archive of meteorological data. This information is of great value for many Earth Science disciplines, but the complexity of the data (up to five dimensions and different time axis domains) and its native data format GRIB, while being an efficient archive format, limits the overall data uptake especially from users outside the MetOcean domain. ECMWF's MARS WebAPI is a very efficient and flexible system for expert users to access and retrieve meteorological data, though challenging for users outside the MetOcean domain. With the help of web-based standards for data access and processing, ECMWF wants to make more than 1 PB of meteorological and climate data easier accessible to users across different Earth Science disciplines. As climate data provider for the H2020 project EarthServer-2, ECMWF explores the feasibility to give on-demand access to it's MARS archive via the OGC standard interface Web Coverage Service (WCS). Despite the potential a WCS for climate and meteorological data offers, the standards-based modelling of meteorological and climate data entails many challenges and reveals the boundaries of the current Web Coverage Service 2.0 standard. Challenges range from valid semantic data models for meteorological data to optimal and efficient data structures for a scalable web service. The presentation reviews the applicability of the current Web Coverage Service 2.0 standard to meteorological and climate data and discusses challenges that are necessary to overcome in order to achieve real interoperability and to ensure the conformant sharing and exchange of meteorological data.

Construction of Real-time Forecast System on the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, H.; Wheeler, M. C.; Lee, J.; Gottschalck, J.

2013-12-01

Hae-Jeong Kim1, Matthew C. Wheeler2, June-Yi Lee3 and Jon C. Gottschalck4 1APEC Climate Center, 12 Centum 7-ro, Haeundae-gu, Busan, 612-020, South Korea 2Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia 3Global Monsoon Climate Laboratory, Pusan National University, Busan, Korea 4Climate Prediction Center, NOAA/National Weather Service, Washington D. C., USA *E-mail : shout@apcc21.org The boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) is one of the dominant mode of variability in the Asian summer monsoon and global monsoon (e.g. Webster et al., 1998; Lee et al., 2013). The BSISO influences summer monsoon onsets (e.g. Wang and Xie, 1997) and interacts with a wide range of atmospheric circulation and associated weather (e.g. Lee et al., 2011; Wang et al., 2012). In addition, the wet and dry spells of the BSISO strongly can influence extreme hydro-meteorological events, major driving forces of natural disasters (Lau and Waliser 2005). Thus, it is important to monitor and predict the BSISO. As the occurrence of and concern over extreme climate events rises, moreover, the provision of high-quality BSISO forecasts will become increasingly relevant. APCC has recently begun to provide the BSISO forecast information service at http://www.apcc21.org/eng/service/bsiso/fore/japcc030601.jsp. The forecast is contributed by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction, the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts and UK Meteorology Office in cooperation with the CAS/WCRP Working Group on Numerical Experimentation (WGNE) Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) Task Force. The APCC BSISO forecasts are displayed by newly developed indices proposed by Lee at al. (2013) that are able to overcome the limitation of the RMM index (Wheeler and Hendon, 2004) in terms of representing BSISO activity with northward propagation over off-equatorial monsoon domain. The BSISO forecast information can be useful for coping with extreme climate events and can help mitigate the agricultural and socioeconomic impacts of these natural disasters. This activity is expected to improve our understanding on the model shortcomings and forecast ability of the BSISO by inducing the participation of various model into BSISO metric. Acknowledgement. We would like to gratefully and sincerely thank the forecast contributions to this activity that has been facilitated by a number of individuals including Andrew Marshall, Wanqiu Wang, Ann Shelly and Frederic Vitart. We also thank the member of the MJO Task Force for their cooperation.

Development of Joint Climate and Discharge Projections for the International Rhine River Basin - the CHR RheinBlick2050 Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Görgen, K.; Pfister, L.

2008-12-01

The anticipated climate change will lead to modified hydro-meteorological regimes that influence discharge behaviour and hydraulics of rivers. This has variable impacts on managed (anthropogenic) and unmanaged (natural) systems, depending on their sensitivity and vulnerability (ecology, economy, infrastructure, transport, energy production, water management, etc.). Decision makers in these contexts need adequate adaptation strategies to minimize adverse effects of climate change, i.e. an improved knowledge on the potential impacts including uncertainties means an extension of the informed options open to users. The goal of the highly applied study presented here is the development of joint, consistent climate and discharge projections for the international Rhine River catchments (Switzerland, France, Germany, Netherlands) in order to assess future changes of hydro-meteorological regimes in the meso- and macroscale Rhine River catchments and to derive and improve the understanding of such impacts on hydrologic and hydraulic processes. The RheinBlick2050 project is an international effort initiated by the International Commission for the Hydrology of the Rhine Basin (CHR) in close cooperation with the International Commission for the Protection of the Rhine. The core experiment design foresees a data-synthesis, multi-model approach where (transient) (bias- corrected) regional climate change projections are used as forcing data for existing calibrated hydrological (and hydraulic) models at a daily temporal resolution over mesoscale catchments of the Rhine River. Mainly for validation purposes, hydro-meteorological observations from national weather services are compiled into a new consistent 5 km x 5 km reference dataset from 1961 to 2005. RCM data are mainly used from the ENSEMBLES project and other existing dynamical downscaling model runs to derive probabilistic ensembles and thereby also access uncertainties on a regional scale. A benchmarking is helping to identify those atmospheric forcing data that ideally suit the needs for the subsequent hydrological model runs with the LARSIM and HBV models and evaluate those simulations too. As a result, usable information and quantifiable statements (e.g. extreme value statistics, uncertainty assessment, validation), that might form the basis for further planning or policy relevant decisions, are to be derived. Our analyses are highly influenced by the requirements of the potential users and stakeholders from government agencies who shall make use of the data and results. Here we present first results of the application of the complete data processing and modelling chain towards discharge projections on a subset of input data, albeit still without any bias correction applied to the meteorological forcing data.

Results of the GABLS3 diurnal-cycle benchmark for wind energy applications

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rodrigo, J. Sanz; Allaerts, D.; Avila, M.

We present results of the GABLS3 model intercomparison benchmark revisited for wind energy applications. The case consists of a diurnal cycle, measured at the 200-m tall Cabauw tower in the Netherlands, including a nocturnal low-level jet. The benchmark includes a sensitivity analysis of WRF simulations using two input meteorological databases and five planetary boundary-layer schemes. A reference set of mesoscale tendencies is used to drive microscale simulations using RANS k-ϵ and LES turbulence models. The validation is based on rotor-based quantities of interest. Cycle-integrated mean absolute errors are used to quantify model performance. The results of the benchmark are usedmore » to discuss input uncertainties from mesoscale modelling, different meso-micro coupling strategies (online vs offline) and consistency between RANS and LES codes when dealing with boundary-layer mean flow quantities. Altogether, all the microscale simulations produce a consistent coupling with mesoscale forcings.« less

Results of the GABLS3 diurnal-cycle benchmark for wind energy applications

DOE PAGES

Rodrigo, J. Sanz; Allaerts, D.; Avila, M.; ...

2017-06-13

We present results of the GABLS3 model intercomparison benchmark revisited for wind energy applications. The case consists of a diurnal cycle, measured at the 200-m tall Cabauw tower in the Netherlands, including a nocturnal low-level jet. The benchmark includes a sensitivity analysis of WRF simulations using two input meteorological databases and five planetary boundary-layer schemes. A reference set of mesoscale tendencies is used to drive microscale simulations using RANS k-ϵ and LES turbulence models. The validation is based on rotor-based quantities of interest. Cycle-integrated mean absolute errors are used to quantify model performance. The results of the benchmark are usedmore » to discuss input uncertainties from mesoscale modelling, different meso-micro coupling strategies (online vs offline) and consistency between RANS and LES codes when dealing with boundary-layer mean flow quantities. Altogether, all the microscale simulations produce a consistent coupling with mesoscale forcings.« less

Phenological Versus Meteorological Controls on Land-atmosphere Water and Carbon Fluxes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Puma, Michael J.; Koster, Randal D.; Cook, Benjamin I.

2013-01-01

Phenological dynamics and their related processes strongly constrain land-atmosphere interactions, but their relative importance vis-à-vis meteorological forcing within general circulation models (GCMs) is still uncertain. Using an off-line land surface model, we evaluate leaf area and meteorological controls on gross primary productivity, evapotranspiration, transpiration, and runoff at four North American sites, representing different vegetation types and background climates. Our results demonstrate that compared to meteorological controls, variation in leaf area has a dominant control on gross primary productivity, a comparable but smaller influence on transpiration, a weak influence on total evapotranspiration, and a negligible impact on runoff. Climate regime and characteristic variations in leaf area have important modulating effects on these relative controls, which vary depending on the fluxes and timescales of interest. We find that leaf area in energylimited evaporative regimes tends to exhibit greater control on annual gross primary productivity than in moisture-limited regimes, except when vegetation exhibits little interannual variation in leaf area. For transpiration, leaf area control is somewhat less in energylimited regimes and greater in moisture-limited regimes for maximum pentad and annual fluxes. These modulating effects of climate and leaf area were less clear for other fluxes and at other timescales. Our findings are relevant to land-atmosphere coupling in GCMs, especially considering that leaf area variations are a fundamental element of land use and land cover change simulations.

Development of a monthly to seasonal forecast framework tailored to inland waterway transport in central Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meißner, Dennis; Klein, Bastian; Ionita, Monica

2017-12-01

Traditionally, navigation-related forecasts in central Europe cover short- to medium-range lead times linked to the travel times of vessels to pass the main waterway bottlenecks leaving the loading ports. Without doubt, this aspect is still essential for navigational users, but in light of the growing political intention to use the free capacity of the inland waterway transport in Europe, additional lead time supporting strategic decisions is more and more in demand. However, no such predictions offering extended lead times of several weeks up to several months currently exist for considerable parts of the European waterway network. This paper describes the set-up of a monthly to seasonal forecasting system for the German stretches of the international waterways of the Rhine, Danube and Elbe rivers. Two competitive forecast approaches have been implemented: the dynamical set-up forces a hydrological model with post-processed outputs from ECMWF general circulation model System 4, whereas the statistical approach is based on the empirical relationship (teleconnection) of global oceanic, climate and regional hydro-meteorological data with river flows. The performance of both forecast methods is evaluated in relation to the climatological forecast (ensemble of historical streamflow) and the well-known ensemble streamflow prediction approach (ESP, ensemble based on historical meteorology) using common performance indicators (correlation coefficient; mean absolute error, skill score; mean squared error, skill score; and continuous ranked probability, skill score) and an impact-based evaluation quantifying the potential economic gain. The following four key findings result from this study: (1) as former studies for other regions of central Europe indicate, the accuracy and/or skill of the meteorological forcing used has a larger effect than the quality of initial hydrological conditions for relevant stations along the German waterways. (2) Despite the predictive limitations on longer lead times in central Europe, this study reveals the existence of a valuable predictability of streamflow on monthly up to seasonal timescales along the Rhine, upper Danube and Elbe waterways, and the Elbe achieves the highest skill and economic value. (3) The more physically based and the statistical approach are able to improve the predictive skills and economic value compared to climatology and the ESP approach. The specific forecast skill highly depends on the forecast location, the lead time and the season. (4) Currently, the statistical approach seems to be most skilful for the three waterways investigated. The lagged relationship between the monthly and/or seasonal streamflow and the climatic and/or oceanic variables vary between 1 month (e.g. local precipitation, temperature and soil moisture) up to 6 months (e.g. sea surface temperature). Besides focusing on improving the forecast methodology, especially by combining the individual approaches, the focus is on developing useful forecast products on monthly to seasonal timescales for waterway transport and to operationalize the related forecasting service.

Inter-annual variability of carbon fluxes in temperate forest ecosystems: effects of biotic and abiotic factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, M.; Keenan, T. F.; Hufkens, K.; Munger, J. W.; Bohrer, G.; Brzostek, E. R.; Richardson, A. D.

2014-12-01

Carbon dynamics in terrestrial ecosystems are influenced by both abiotic and biotic factors. Abiotic factors, such as variation in meteorological conditions, directly drive biophysical and biogeochemical processes; biotic factors, referring to the inherent properties of the ecosystem components, reflect the internal regulating effects including temporal dynamics and memory. The magnitude of the effect of abiotic and biotic factors on forest ecosystem carbon exchange has been suggested to vary at different time scales. In this study, we design and conduct a model-data fusion experiment to investigate the role and relative importance of the biotic and abiotic factors for inter-annual variability of the net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) of temperate deciduous forest ecosystems in the Northeastern US. A process-based model (FöBAAR) is parameterized at four eddy-covariance sites using all available flux and biometric measurements. We conducted a "transplant" modeling experiment, that is, cross- site and parameter simulations with different combinations of site meteorology and parameters. Using wavelet analysis and variance partitioning techniques, analysis of model predictions identifies both spatial variant and spatially invariant parameters. Variability of NEE was primarily modulated by gross primary productivity (GPP), with relative contributions varying from hourly to yearly time scales. The inter-annual variability of GPP and NEE is more regulated by meteorological forcing, but spatial variability in certain model parameters (biotic response) has more substantial effects on the inter-annual variability of ecosystem respiration (Reco) through the effects on carbon pools. Both the biotic and abiotic factors play significant roles in modulating the spatial and temporal variability in terrestrial carbon cycling in the region. Together, our study quantifies the relative importance of both, and calls for better understanding of them to better predict regional CO2 exchanges.

A multiphysical ensemble system of numerical snow modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lafaysse, Matthieu; Cluzet, Bertrand; Dumont, Marie; Lejeune, Yves; Vionnet, Vincent; Morin, Samuel

2017-05-01

Physically based multilayer snowpack models suffer from various modelling errors. To represent these errors, we built the new multiphysical ensemble system ESCROC (Ensemble System Crocus) by implementing new representations of different physical processes in the deterministic coupled multilayer ground/snowpack model SURFEX/ISBA/Crocus. This ensemble was driven and evaluated at Col de Porte (1325 m a.s.l., French alps) over 18 years with a high-quality meteorological and snow data set. A total number of 7776 simulations were evaluated separately, accounting for the uncertainties of evaluation data. The ability of the ensemble to capture the uncertainty associated to modelling errors is assessed for snow depth, snow water equivalent, bulk density, albedo and surface temperature. Different sub-ensembles of the ESCROC system were studied with probabilistic tools to compare their performance. Results show that optimal members of the ESCROC system are able to explain more than half of the total simulation errors. Integrating members with biases exceeding the range corresponding to observational uncertainty is necessary to obtain an optimal dispersion, but this issue can also be a consequence of the fact that meteorological forcing uncertainties were not accounted for. The ESCROC system promises the integration of numerical snow-modelling errors in ensemble forecasting and ensemble assimilation systems in support of avalanche hazard forecasting and other snowpack-modelling applications.

Statistical attribution of mid-term droughts in central Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mikšovský, Jiří; Trnka, Miroslav; Brázdil, Rudolf

2017-04-01

Occurrence and intensity of meteorological droughts are determined by a number of factors, both anthropogenic and natural. Besides the trend-like components, often attributable to local or global man-induced changes to the climate system, manifestations of internal climate oscillatory modes are also of great importance in establishing the hydrological regime. In this presentation, we focus on identification and quantification of factors responsible for central European drought variability at seasonal time scales. Using multivariable regression analysis applied to predictands reflecting various definitions of meteorological droughts (based on Standardized Precipitation Index, Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index and Palmer's Z-index, over the 1883-2010 period), components attributable to external and internal climate-forming agents are extracted and evaluated with regard to their statistical significance. Our results confirm presence of strong links of central European droughts to the anthropogenic radiative forcing and to the phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation, but also existence of connections to the climate oscillations originating from the Pacific area. In this context, we demonstrate that prominence of components related to the phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation generally surpasses that of El Niño - Southern Oscillation, although the related transfer mechanisms still remain unclear. Finally, it is shown that noteworthy deviations from linearity exist in some of the drought responses, particularly for the effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation.

Latency features of SafetyNet ground systems architecture for the National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duda, James L.; Mulligan, Joseph; Valenti, James; Wenkel, Michael

2005-01-01

A key feature of the National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) is the Northrop Grumman Space Technology patent-pending innovative data routing and retrieval architecture called SafetyNetTM. The SafetyNetTM ground system architecture for the National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS), combined with the Interface Data Processing Segment (IDPS), will together provide low data latency and high data availability to its customers. The NPOESS will cut the time between observation and delivery by a factor of four when compared with today's space-based weather systems, the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) and NOAA's Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellites (POES). SafetyNetTM will be a key element of the NPOESS architecture, delivering near real-time data over commercial telecommunications networks. Scattered around the globe, the 15 unmanned ground receptors are linked by fiber-optic systems to four central data processing centers in the U. S. known as Weather Centrals. The National Environmental Satellite, Data and Information Service; Air Force Weather Agency; Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center, and the Naval Oceanographic Office operate the Centrals. In addition, this ground system architecture will have unused capacity attendant with an infrastructure that can accommodate additional users.

Simultaneous calibration of ensemble river flow predictions over an entire range of lead times

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hemri, S.; Fundel, F.; Zappa, M.

2013-10-01

Probabilistic estimates of future water levels and river discharge are usually simulated with hydrologic models using ensemble weather forecasts as main inputs. As hydrologic models are imperfect and the meteorological ensembles tend to be biased and underdispersed, the ensemble forecasts for river runoff typically are biased and underdispersed, too. Thus, in order to achieve both reliable and sharp predictions statistical postprocessing is required. In this work Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is applied to statistically postprocess ensemble runoff raw forecasts for a catchment in Switzerland, at lead times ranging from 1 to 240 h. The raw forecasts have been obtained using deterministic and ensemble forcing meteorological models with different forecast lead time ranges. First, BMA is applied based on mixtures of univariate normal distributions, subject to the assumption of independence between distinct lead times. Then, the independence assumption is relaxed in order to estimate multivariate runoff forecasts over the entire range of lead times simultaneously, based on a BMA version that uses multivariate normal distributions. Since river runoff is a highly skewed variable, Box-Cox transformations are applied in order to achieve approximate normality. Both univariate and multivariate BMA approaches are able to generate well calibrated probabilistic forecasts that are considerably sharper than climatological forecasts. Additionally, multivariate BMA provides a promising approach for incorporating temporal dependencies into the postprocessed forecasts. Its major advantage against univariate BMA is an increase in reliability when the forecast system is changing due to model availability.

Assessing actual evapotranspiration via surface energy balance aiming to optimize water and energy consumption in large scale pressurized irrigation systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Awada, H.; Ciraolo, G.; Maltese, A.; Moreno Hidalgo, M. A.; Provenzano, G.; Còrcoles, J. I.

2017-10-01

Satellite imagery provides a dependable basis for computational models that aimed to determine actual evapotranspiration (ET) by surface energy balance. Satellite-based models enables quantifying ET over large areas for a wide range of applications, such as monitoring water distribution, managing irrigation and assessing irrigation systems' performance. With the aim to evaluate the energy and water consumption of a large scale on-turn pressurized irrigation system in the district of Aguas Nuevas, Albacete, Spain, the satellite-based image-processing model SEBAL was used for calculating actual ET. The model has been applied to quantify instantaneous, daily, and seasonal actual ET over high- resolution Landsat images for the peak water demand season (May to September) and for the years 2006 - 2008. The model provided a direct estimation of the distribution of main energy fluxes, at the instant when the satellite overpassed over each field of the district. The image acquisition day Evapotranspiration (ET24) was obtained from instantaneous values by assuming a constant evaporative fraction (Λ) for the entire day of acquisition; then, monthly and seasonal ET were estimated from the daily evapotranspiration (ETdaily) assuming that ET24 varies in proportion to reference ET (ETr) at the meteorological station, thus accounting for day to day variation in meteorological forcing. The comparison between the hydrants water consumption and the actual evapotranspiration, considering an irrigation efficiency of 85%, showed that a considerable amount of water and energy can be saved at district level.

Applicability of AgMERRA Forcing Dataset to Fill Gaps in Historical in-situ Meteorological Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bannayan, M.; Lashkari, A.; Zare, H.; Asadi, S.; Salehnia, N.

2015-12-01

Integrated assessment studies of food production systems use crop models to simulate the effects of climate and socio-economic changes on food security. Climate forcing data is one of those key inputs of crop models. This study evaluated the performance of AgMERRA climate forcing dataset to fill gaps in historical in-situ meteorological data for different climatic regions of Iran. AgMERRA dataset intercompared with in- situ observational dataset for daily maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation during 1980-2010 periods via Root Mean Square error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Mean Bias Error (MBE) for 17 stations in four climatic regions included humid and moderate, cold, dry and arid, hot and humid. Moreover, probability distribution function and cumulative distribution function compared between model and observed data. The results of measures of agreement between AgMERRA data and observed data demonstrated that there are small errors in model data for all stations. Except for stations which are located in cold regions, model data in the other stations illustrated under-prediction for daily maximum temperature and precipitation. However, it was not significant. In addition, probability distribution function and cumulative distribution function showed the same trend for all stations between model and observed data. Therefore, the reliability of AgMERRA dataset is high to fill gaps in historical observations in different climatic regions of Iran as well as it could be applied as a basis for future climate scenarios.

Analysis of source regions and meteorological factors for the variability of spring PM10 concentrations in Seoul, Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Jangho; Kim, Kwang-Yul

2018-02-01

CSEOF analysis is applied for the springtime (March, April, May) daily PM10 concentrations measured at 23 Ministry of Environment stations in Seoul, Korea for the period of 2003-2012. Six meteorological variables at 12 pressure levels are also acquired from the ERA Interim reanalysis datasets. CSEOF analysis is conducted for each meteorological variable over East Asia. Regression analysis is conducted in CSEOF space between the PM10 concentrations and individual meteorological variables to identify associated atmospheric conditions for each CSEOF mode. By adding the regressed loading vectors with the mean meteorological fields, the daily atmospheric conditions are obtained for the first five CSEOF modes. Then, HYSPLIT model is run with the atmospheric conditions for each CSEOF mode in order to back trace the air parcels and dust reaching Seoul. The K-means clustering algorithm is applied to identify major source regions for each CSEOF mode of the PM10 concentrations in Seoul. Three main source regions identified based on the mean fields are: (1) northern Taklamakan Desert (NTD), (2) Gobi Desert and (GD), and (3) East China industrial area (ECI). The main source regions for the mean meteorological fields are consistent with those of previous study; 41% of the source locations are located in GD followed by ECI (37%) and NTD (21%). Back trajectory calculations based on CSEOF analysis of meteorological variables identify distinct source characteristics associated with each CSEOF mode and greatly facilitate the interpretation of the PM10 variability in Seoul in terms of transportation route and meteorological conditions including the source area.

[Prediction model of meteorological grade of wheat stripe rust in winter-reproductive area, Sichuan Basin, China].

PubMed

Guo, Xiang; Wang, Ming Tian; Zhang, Guo Zhi

2017-12-01

The winter reproductive areas of Puccinia striiformis var. striiformis in Sichuan Basin are often the places mostly affected by wheat stripe rust. With data on the meteorological condition and stripe rust situation at typical stations in the winter reproductive area in Sichuan Basin from 1999 to 2016, this paper classified the meteorological conditions inducing wheat stripe rust into 5 grades, based on the incidence area ratio of the disease. The meteorological factors which were biologically related to wheat stripe rust were determined through multiple analytical methods, and a meteorological grade model for forecasting wheat stripe rust was created. The result showed that wheat stripe rust in Sichuan Basin was significantly correlated with many meteorological factors, such as the ave-rage (maximum and minimum) temperature, precipitation and its anomaly percentage, relative humidity and its anomaly percentage, average wind speed and sunshine duration. Among these, the average temperature and the anomaly percentage of relative humidity were the determining factors. According to a historical retrospective test, the accuracy of the forecast based on the model was 64% for samples in the county-level test, and 89% for samples in the municipal-level test. In a meteorological grade forecast of wheat stripe rust in the winter reproductive areas in Sichuan Basin in 2017, the prediction was accurate for 62.8% of the samples, with 27.9% error by one grade and only 9.3% error by two or more grades. As a result, the model could deliver satisfactory forecast results, and predicate future wheat stripe rust from a meteorological point of view.

Using Constraints from Satellite Gravimetry to Study Meteorological Excitations of the Chandler Wobble for an Earth Model with Frequency-dependent Responses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, W.; Li, J.; Ray, J.; Cheng, M.; Chen, J.; Wilson, C. R.

2015-12-01

What maintain(s) the damping Chandler wobble (CW) is still under debate though meteorological excitations are now more preferred. However, controversial results have been obtained: Gross [2000] and Gross et al. [2003] suggested oceanic processes are more efficient to excite the CW than atmospheric ones during 1980 - 2000. Brzezinski and Nastula [2002] concluded that their contributions are almost the same, and they can only provide ~80% of the power needed to maintain the CW observed during 1985 - 1996. Polar motion excitations involve not only the perturbations within the Earth system (namely, mass redistributions and motions of relative to the mantle), but also the Earth's responses to those perturbations (namely, the rheology of the Earth). Chen et al. [2013a] developed an improved theory for polar motion excitation taking into account the Earth's frequency-dependent responses, of which the polar motion transfer functions are ~10% higher than those of previous theories around the CW band. Chen et al. [2013b] compared the geophysical excitations derived from various global atmospheric, oceanic and hydrological models (NCEP, ECCO, ERA40, ERAinterim and ECMWF operational products), and found significant and broad-band discrepancies for models released by different institutes. In addition, the atmosphere, ocean and hydrology models are usually developed in a somewhat independent manner and thus the global (atmospheric, oceanic and hydrological) mass is not conserved [e.g., Yan and Chao, 2012]. Therefore, the matter-term excitations estimated from those models are problematic. In one word, it is unlikely to obtain reliable conclusions on meteorological excitations of CW on the basis of the original meteorological models. Satellite gravimetry can measure mass transportations caused by atmospheric, oceanic and hydrological processes much more accurately than those provided by the original meteorological models, and can force the global (atmospheric, oceanic and hydrological) mass to be conserved. Therefore, it might be promising to obtain better understanding on meteorological excitations of CW by assimilating the time-variable gravity data from GRACE and SLR to improve the matter terms of the meteorological excitations, and adopting the new polar motion theory of Chen et al. [2013a].

Modeling of meteorology, tracer transport and chemistry for the Uintah Basin Winter Ozone Studies 2012 and 2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmadov, R.; McKeen, S. A.; Angevine, W. M.; Frost, G. J.; Roberts, J. M.; De Gouw, J. A.; Warneke, C.; Peischl, J.; Brown, S. S.; Edwards, P. M.; Wild, R. J.; Pichugina, Y. L.; Banta, R. M.; Brewer, A.; Senff, C. J.; Langford, A. O.; Petron, G.; Karion, A.; Sweeney, C.; Schnell, R. C.; Johnson, B.; Zamora, R. J.; Helmig, D.; Park, J.; Evans, J.; Stephens, C. R.; Olson, J. B.; Trainer, M.

2013-12-01

The Uintah Basin Winter Ozone Studies (UBWOS) field campaigns took place during winter of 2012 and 2013 in the Uintah Basin, Utah. The studies were aimed at characterizing meteorology, emissions of atmospheric constituents and air chemistry in a region abundant with oil and gas production, with associated emissions of various volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and NOx. High ozone pollution events were observed throughout the Uintah Basin during the winter of 2013, but not during the winter of 2012. A clear understanding of the processes leading to high ozone events is still lacking. We present here high spatiotemporal resolution simulations of meteorology, tracer transport and gas chemistry over the basin during January-February, 2012 and 2013 using the WRF/Chem regional photochemical model. Correctly characterizing the meteorology poses unique challenges due to complex terrain, cold-pool conditions, and shallow inversion layers observed during the winter of 2013. We discuss the approach taken to adequately simulate the meteorology over the basin and present evaluations of the modeled meteorology using surface, lidar and tethersonde measurements. Initial simulations use a passive tracer within the model as a surrogate for CH4 released from oil and gas wells. These tracer transport simulations show that concentrations of inert, emitted species near the surface in 2013 were 4-8 times higher than 2012 due to much shallower boundary layers and reduced winds in 2013. This is supported by in-situ measurements of CH4 made at the Horse Pool surface station during the field campaigns. Full photochemical simulations are forced by VOC and NOx emissions that are determined in a top-down approach, using observed emission ratios of VOC and NOx relative to CH4, along with available information of active wells, compressors, and processing plants. We focus on differences in meteorology, temperature, and radiation between the two winters in determining ozone concentrations in the basin. The model is then used diagnostically to assess first-order sensitivities of basin-wide ozone to NOx or VOC emissions, and how they depend on the environmental differences between the winters of 2012 and 2013.

Meteorology drives ambient air quality in a valley: a case of Sukinda chromite mine, one among the ten most polluted areas in the world.

PubMed

Mishra, Soumya Ranjan; Pradhan, Rudra Pratap; Prusty, B Anjan Kumar; Sahu, Sanjat Kumar

2016-07-01

The ambient air quality (AAQ) assessment was undertaken in Sukinda Valley, the chromite hub of India. The possible correlations of meteorological variables with different air quality parameters (PM10, PM2.5, SO2, NO2 and CO) were examined. Being the fourth most polluted area in the globe, Sukinda Valley has always been under attention of researchers, for hexavalent chromium contamination of water. The monitoring was carried out from December 2013 through May 2014 at six strategic locations in the residential and commercial areas around the mining cluster of Sukinda Valley considering the guidelines of Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB). In addition, meteorological parameters viz., temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, wind direction and rainfall, were also monitored. The air quality data were subjected to a general linear model (GLM) coupled with one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) test for testing the significant difference in the concentration of various parameters among seasons and stations. Further, a two-tailed Pearson's correlation test helped in understanding the influence of meteorological parameters on dispersion of pollutants in the area. All the monitored air quality parameters varied significantly among the monitoring stations suggesting (i) the distance of sampling location to the mine site and other allied activities, (ii) landscape features and topography and (iii) meteorological parameters to be the forcing functions. The area was highly polluted with particulate matters, and in most of the cases, the PM level exceeded the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS). The meteorological parameters seemed to play a major role in the dispersion of pollutants around the mine clusters. The role of wind direction, wind speed and temperature was apparent in dispersion of the particulate matters from their source of generation to the surrounding residential and commercial areas of the mine.

Weathering Heights: The Emergence of Aeronautical Meteorology as an Infrastructural Science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turner, Roger

The first half of the 20th century was an era of weathering heights. As the development of powered flight made the free atmosphere militarily and economically relevant, meteorologists encountered new kinds of weather conditions at altitude. Pilots also learned to weather heights, as they struggled to survive in an atmosphere that revealed surprising dangers like squall lines, fog, icing, and turbulence. Aeronautical meteorology evolved out of these encounters, a heterogeneous body of knowledge that included guidelines for routing aircraft, networks for observing the upper air using scientific instruments, and procedures for synthesizing those observations into weather forecasts designed for pilots. As meteorologists worked to make the skies safe for aircraft, they remade their science around the physics of the free atmosphere. The dissertation tracks a small group of Scandinavian meteorologists, the "Bergen School," who came to be the dominant force in world meteorology by forecasting for Arctic exploration flights, designing airline weather services, and training thousands of military weather officers during World War II. After the war, some of these military meteorologists invented the TV weather report (now the most widely consumed genre of popular science) by combining the narrative of the pre-fight weather briefing with the visual style of comic-illustrated training manuals. The dissertation argues that aeronautical meteorology is representative of what I call the "infrastructural sciences," a set of organizationally intensive, purposefully invisible, applied sciences. These sciences enable the reliable operation of large technological systems by integrating theory-derived knowledge with routine environmental observation. The dissertation articulates a set of characteristics for identifying and understanding infrastructural science, and then argues that these culturally modest technical practices play a pervasive role in maintaining industrial lifeways. It concludes by noting that while meteorology successfully helped aviation become a reliable, taken-for-granted part of the transportation system, the interests of aviation created a meteorology that centered on the needs of pilots, to the detriment of fields like agricultural climatology.

Advances in snow cover distributed modelling via ensemble simulations and assimilation of satellite data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Revuelto, J.; Dumont, M.; Tuzet, F.; Vionnet, V.; Lafaysse, M.; Lecourt, G.; Vernay, M.; Morin, S.; Cosme, E.; Six, D.; Rabatel, A.

2017-12-01

Nowadays snowpack models show a good capability in simulating the evolution of snow in mountain areas. However singular deviations of meteorological forcing and shortcomings in the modelling of snow physical processes, when accumulated on time along a snow season, could produce large deviations from real snowpack state. The evaluation of these deviations is usually assessed with on-site observations from automatic weather stations. Nevertheless the location of these stations could strongly influence the results of these evaluations since local topography may have a marked influence on snowpack evolution. Despite the evaluation of snowpack models with automatic weather stations usually reveal good results, there exist a lack of large scale evaluations of simulations results on heterogeneous alpine terrain subjected to local topographic effects.This work firstly presents a complete evaluation of the detailed snowpack model Crocus over an extended mountain area, the Arve upper catchment (western European Alps). This catchment has a wide elevation range with a large area above 2000m a.s.l. and/or glaciated. The evaluation compares results obtained with distributed and semi-distributed simulations (the latter nowadays used on the operational forecasting). Daily observations of the snow covered area from MODIS satellite sensor, seasonal glacier surface mass balance evolution measured in more than 65 locations and the galciers annual equilibrium line altitude from Landsat/Spot/Aster satellites, have been used for model evaluation. Additionally the latest advances in producing ensemble snowpack simulations for assimilating satellite reflectance data over extended areas will be presented. These advances comprises the generation of an ensemble of downscaled high-resolution meteorological forcing from meso-scale meteorological models and the application of a particle filter scheme for assimilating satellite observations. Despite the results are prefatory, they show a good potential improving snowpack forecasting capabilities.

The ISLSCP initiative I global datasets: Surface boundary conditions and atmospheric forcings for land-atmosphere studies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sellers, P.J.; Collatz, J.; Koster, R.

1996-09-01

A comprehensive series of global datasets for land-atmosphere models has been collected, formatted to a common grid, and released on a set of CD-ROMs. This paper describes the motivation for and the contents of the dataset. In June of 1992, an interdisciplinary earth science workshop was convened in Columbia, Maryland, to assess progress in land-atmosphere research, specifically in the areas of models, satellite data algorithms, and field experiments. At the workshop, representatives of the land-atmosphere modeling community defined a need for global datasets to prescribe boundary conditions, initialize state variables, and provide near-surface meteorological and radiative forcings for their models.more » The International Satellite Land Surface Climatology Project (ISLSCP), a part of the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment, worked with the Distributed Active Archive Center of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Space Flight Center to bring the required datasets together in a usable format. The data have since been released on a collection of CD-ROMs. The datasets on the CD-ROMs are grouped under the following headings: vegetation; hydrology and soils; snow, ice, and oceans; radiation and clouds; and near-surface meteorology. All datasets cover the period 1987-88, and all but a few are spatially continuous over the earth`s land surface. All have been mapped to a common 1{degree} x 1{degree} equal-angle grid. The temporal frequency for most of the datasets is monthly. A few of the near-surface meteorological parameters are available both as six-hourly values and as monthly means. 26 refs., 8 figs., 2 tabs.« less

Meteorological, atmospheric and climatic perturbations during major dust storms over Indo-Gangetic Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Sarvan; Kumar, Sanjay; Kaskaoutis, D. G.; Singh, Ramesh P.; Singh, Rajeev K.; Mishra, Amit K.; Srivastava, Manoj K.; Singh, Abhay K.

2015-06-01

During the pre-monsoon season (April-June), the Indo-Gangetic Basin (IGB) suffers from frequent and intense dust storms originated from the arid and desert regions of southwest Asia (Iran, Afghanistan), Arabia and Thar desert blanketing IGB and Himalayan foothills. The present study examines the columnar and vertical aerosol characteristics and estimates the shortwave (0.25-4.0 μm) aerosol radiative forcing (ARF) and atmospheric heating rates over Kanpur, central IGB, during three intense dust-storm events in the pre-monsoon season of 2010. MODIS images, meteorological and AERONET observations clearly show that all the dust storms either originated from the Thar desert or transported over, under favorable meteorological conditions (low pressure and strong surface winds) affecting nearly the whole IGB and modifying the aerosol loading and characteristics (Ångström exponent, single scattering albedo, size distribution and refractive index). CALIPSO observations reveal the presence of high-altitude (up to 3-5 km) dust plumes that strongly modify the vertical aerosol profile and are transported over Himalayan foothills with serious climate implications (atmospheric warming, enhanced melting of glaciers). Shortwave ARF calculations over Kanpur using SBDART model show large negative forcing values at the surface (-93.27, -101.60 and -66.71 W m-2) during the intense dusty days, associated with planetary (top of atmosphere) cooling (-18.16, -40.95, -29.58 W m-2) and significant atmospheric heating (75.11, 60.65, 37.13 W m-2), which is translated to average heating rates of 1.57, 1.41 and 0.78 K day-1, respectively in the lower atmosphere (below ∼3.5 km). The ARF estimates are in satisfactory agreement with the AERONET ARF retrievals over Kanpur.

Testing the Hydrological Coherence of High-Resolution Gridded Precipitation and Temperature Data Sets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laiti, L.; Mallucci, S.; Piccolroaz, S.; Bellin, A.; Zardi, D.; Fiori, A.; Nikulin, G.; Majone, B.

2018-03-01

Assessing the accuracy of gridded climate data sets is highly relevant to climate change impact studies, since evaluation, bias correction, and statistical downscaling of climate models commonly use these products as reference. Among all impact studies those addressing hydrological fluxes are the most affected by errors and biases plaguing these data. This paper introduces a framework, coined Hydrological Coherence Test (HyCoT), for assessing the hydrological coherence of gridded data sets with hydrological observations. HyCoT provides a framework for excluding meteorological forcing data sets not complying with observations, as function of the particular goal at hand. The proposed methodology allows falsifying the hypothesis that a given data set is coherent with hydrological observations on the basis of the performance of hydrological modeling measured by a metric selected by the modeler. HyCoT is demonstrated in the Adige catchment (southeastern Alps, Italy) for streamflow analysis, using a distributed hydrological model. The comparison covers the period 1989-2008 and includes five gridded daily meteorological data sets: E-OBS, MSWEP, MESAN, APGD, and ADIGE. The analysis highlights that APGD and ADIGE, the data sets with highest effective resolution, display similar spatiotemporal precipitation patterns and produce the largest hydrological efficiency indices. Lower performances are observed for E-OBS, MESAN, and MSWEP, especially in small catchments. HyCoT reveals deficiencies in the representation of spatiotemporal patterns of gridded climate data sets, which cannot be corrected by simply rescaling the meteorological forcing fields, as often done in bias correction of climate model outputs. We recommend this framework to assess the hydrological coherence of gridded data sets to be used in large-scale hydroclimatic studies.

Developing a Peak Wind Probability Forecast Tool for Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lambert, WInifred; Roeder, William

2007-01-01

This conference presentation describes the development of a peak wind forecast tool to assist forecasters in determining the probability of violating launch commit criteria (LCC) at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) in east-central Florida. The peak winds are an important forecast element for both the Space Shuttle and Expendable Launch Vehicle (ELV) programs. The LCC define specific peak wind thresholds for each launch operation that cannot be exceeded in order to ensure the safety of the vehicle. The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) has found that peak winds are a challenging parameter to forecast, particularly in the cool season months of October through April. Based on the importance of forecasting peak winds, the 45 WS tasked the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) to develop a short-range peak-wind forecast tool to assist in forecasting LCC violations. The tool will include climatologies of the 5-minute mean and peak winds by month, hour, and direction, and probability distributions of the peak winds as a function of the 5-minute mean wind speeds.

Statistical Short-Range Guidance for Peak Wind Forecasts on Kennedy Space Center/Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Phase III

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crawford, Winifred

2010-01-01

This final report describes the development of a peak wind forecast tool to assist forecasters in determining the probability of violating launch commit criteria (LCC) at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). The peak winds are an important forecast element for both the Space Shuttle and Expendable Launch Vehicle (ELV) programs. The LCC define specific peak wind thresholds for each launch operation that cannot be exceeded in order to ensure the safety of the vehicle. The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) has found that peak winds are a challenging parameter to forecast, particularly in the cool season months of October through April. Based on the importance of forecasting peak winds, the 45 WS tasked the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) to develop a short-range peak-wind forecast tool to assist in forecasting LCC violations.The tool includes climatologies of the 5-minute mean and peak winds by month, hour, and direction, and probability distributions of the peak winds as a function of the 5-minute mean wind speeds.

An Objective Verification of the North American Mesoscale Model for Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bauman, William H., III

2010-01-01

The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) Launch Weather Officers use the 12-km resolution North American Mesoscale (NAM) model (MesoNAM) text and graphical product forecasts extensively to support launch weather operations. However, the actual performance of the model at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) has not been measured objectively. In order to have tangible evidence of model performance, the 45 WS tasked the Applied Meteorology Unit to conduct a detailed statistical analysis of model output compared to observed values. The model products are provided to the 45 WS by ACTA, Inc. and include hourly forecasts from 0 to 84 hours based on model initialization times of 00, 06, 12 and 18 UTC. The objective analysis compared the MesoNAM forecast winds, temperature and dew point, as well as the changes in these parameters over time, to the observed values from the sensors in the KSC/CCAFS wind tower network. Objective statistics will give the forecasters knowledge of the model's strength and weaknesses, which will result in improved forecasts for operations.

A Peak Wind Probability Forecast Tool for Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crawford, Winifred; Roeder, William

2008-01-01

This conference abstract describes the development of a peak wind forecast tool to assist forecasters in determining the probability of violating launch commit criteria (LCC) at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) in east-central Florida. The peak winds are an important forecast element for both the Space Shuttle and Expendable Launch Vehicle (ELV) programs. The LCC define specific peak wind thresholds for each launch operation that cannot be exceeded in order to ensure the safety of the vehicle. The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) has found that peak winds are a challenging parameter to forecast, particularly in the cool season months of October through April. Based on the importance of forecasting peak winds, the 45 WS tasked the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) to develop a short-range peak-wind forecast tool to assist in forecasting LCC violatioas.The tool will include climatologies of the 5-minute mean end peak winds by month, hour, and direction, and probability distributions of the peak winds as a function of the 5-minute mean wind speeds.

Peak Wind Forecasts for the Launch-Critical Wind Towers on Kennedy Space Center/Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Phase IV

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crawford, Winifred

2011-01-01

This final report describes the development of a peak wind forecast tool to assist forecasters in determining the probability of violating launch commit criteria (LCC) at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). The peak winds arc an important forecast clement for both the Space Shuttle and Expendable Launch Vehicle (ELV) programs. The LCC define specific peak wind thresholds for each launch operation that cannot be exceeded in order to ensure the safety of the vehicle. The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) has found that peak winds are a challenging parameter to forecast, particularly in the cool season months of October through April. Based on the importance of forecasting peak winds, the 45 WS tasked the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) to update the statistics in the current peak-wind forecast tool to assist in forecasting LCC violations. The tool includes onshore and offshore flow climatologies of the 5-minute mean and peak winds and probability distributions of the peak winds as a function of the 5-minute mean wind speeds.

Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) Quarterly Report Third Quarter FY · 13

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bauman, William; Crawford, Winifred; Watson, Leela; Shafer, Jaclyn; Huddleston, Lisa

2013-01-01

The AMU team worked on seven tasks for their customers: (1) Ms. Crawford completed the objective lightning forecast tool for east -central Florida airports and delivered the tool and the final report to the customers. (2) Ms. Shafer continued work for Vandenberg Air Force Base on an automated tool to relate pressure gradients to peak winds. (3) Dr. Huddleston updated and delivered the tool that shows statistics on the timing of the first lightning strike of the day in the Kennedy Space Center (KSC)/Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) area. (4) Dr. Bauman continued work on a severe weather forecast tool focused on the Eastern Range (ER). (5) Ms. Crawford acquired the software and radar data needed to create a dual-Doppler analysis over the east-central Florida and KSC/CCAFS areas. (6) Mr. Decker continued developing a wind pairs database for the Launch Services Program to use when evaluating upper-level winds for launch vehicles. (7) Dr. Watson continued work to assimilate observational data into the high-resolution model configurations she created for Wallops Flight Facility and the ER.

Meteorological radar services: a brief discussion and a solution in practice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nicolaides, K. A.

2014-08-01

The Department of Meteorology is the organization designated by the Civil Aviation Department and by the National Supervisory Authority of the Republic of Cyprus, as an air navigation service provider, based on the regulations of the Single European Sky. Department of Meteorology holds and maintains also an ISO: 9001/2008, Quality System, for the provision of meteorological and climatological services to aeronautic and maritime community, but also to the general public. In order to fulfill its obligations the Department of Meteorology customs the rather dense meteorological stations network, with long historical data series, installed and maintained by the Department, in parallel with modelling and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP), along with training and gaining of expertise. Among the available instruments in the community of meteorologists is the meteorological radar, a basic tool for the needs of very short/short range forecasting (nowcasting). The Department of Meteorology installed in the mid 90's a C-band radar over «Throni» location and expanded its horizons in nowcasting, aviation safety and warnings issuance. The radar has undergone several upgrades but today technology has over passed its rather old technology. At the present the Department of Meteorology is in the process of buying Meteorological Radar Services as a result of a public procurement procedure. Two networked X-band meteorological radar will be installed (the project now is in the phase of infrastructure establishment while the hardware is in the process of assemble), and maintained from Space Hellas (the contractor) for a 13 years' time period. The present article must be faced as a review article of the efforts of the Department of Meteorology to support its weather forecasters with data from meteorological radar.

The role of local urban traffic and meteorological conditions in air pollution: A data-based case study in Madrid, Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laña, Ibai; Del Ser, Javier; Padró, Ales; Vélez, Manuel; Casanova-Mateo, Carlos

2016-11-01

Urban air pollution is a matter of growing concern for both public administrations and citizens. Road traffic is one of the main sources of air pollutants, though topography characteristics and meteorological conditions can make pollution levels increase or diminish dramatically. In this context an upsurge of research has been conducted towards functionally linking variables of such domains to measured pollution data, with studies dealing with up to one-hour resolution meteorological data. However, the majority of such reported contributions do not deal with traffic data or, at most, simulate traffic conditions jointly with the consideration of different topographical features. The aim of this study is to further explore this relationship by using high-resolution real traffic data. This paper describes a methodology based on the construction of regression models to predict levels of different pollutants (i.e. CO, NO, NO2, O3 and PM10) based on traffic data and meteorological conditions, from which an estimation of the predictive relevance (importance) of each utilized feature can be estimated by virtue of their particular training procedure. The study was made with one hour resolution meteorological, traffic and pollution historic data in roadside and background locations of the city of Madrid (Spain) captured over 2015. The obtained results reveal that the impact of vehicular emissions on the pollution levels is overshadowed by the effects of stable meteorological conditions of this city.

Software for storage and processing coded messages for the international exchange of meteorological information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Popov, V. N.; Botygin, I. A.; Kolochev, A. S.

2017-01-01

The approach allows representing data of international codes for exchange of meteorological information using metadescription as the formalism associated with certain categories of resources. Development of metadata components was based on an analysis of the data of surface meteorological observations, atmosphere vertical sounding, atmosphere wind sounding, weather radar observing, observations from satellites and others. A common set of metadata components was formed including classes, divisions and groups for a generalized description of the meteorological data. The structure and content of the main components of a generalized metadescription are presented in detail by the example of representation of meteorological observations from land and sea stations. The functional structure of a distributed computing system is described. It allows organizing the storage of large volumes of meteorological data for their further processing in the solution of problems of the analysis and forecasting of climatic processes.

PROMET - The Journal of Meteorological Education issued by DWD

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rapp, J.

2009-09-01

Promet is published by the German Meteorological Service (DWD) since 1971 to improve meteorologists and weather forecasters skills. The journal comprises mainly contributions to topics like biometeorology, the NAO, or meteorology and insurance business. The science-based articles should illustrate the special issue in an understandable and transparent way. In addition, the journal contains portraits of other national meteorological services and university departments, book reviews, list of university degrees, and other individual papers. Promet is published only in German language, but included English titles and abstracts. The journal is peer-reviewed by renowned external scientists. It is distributed free of charge by DWD to the own meteorological staff. On the other hand, DMG (the German Meteorological Society) hand it out to all members of the society. The current issues deal with "Modern procedures of weather forecasting in DWD” and "E-Learning in Meteorology”.

Data for polar-regions research

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jenne, R.L.

1992-03-01

Datasets available for polar research on global change topics are summarized. Emphasis is given to data that define the large, including rawinsonde data, surface meteorological observations, cloud drift winds, atmospheric analyses, sea ice, planetary radiation, and ocean forcing. Plans are discussed for making improved atmospheric analyses, using existing data. The use of CD-ROMs and DAT technologies for data distribution is discussed and selected CD-ROMs are listed.

KSC01pp0794

NASA Image and Video Library

2001-04-12

KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. -- After arrival at Astrotech, Titusville, Fla., the GOES-M (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite) is attached to an overhead crane. The GOES-M provides weather imagery and quantitative sounding data used to support weather forecasting, severe storm tracking and meteorological research. The satellite will undergo testing at Astrotech before its scheduled launch July 12 on an Atlas-IIA booster, Centaur upper stage from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station

KSC01pp0801

NASA Image and Video Library

2001-04-12

With the GOES-M satellite tilted on a workstand at Astrotech, Titusville, Fla, workers check out a part of the underside. The GOES-M provides weather imagery and quantitative sounding data used to support weather forecasting, severe storm tracking and meteorological research. The satellite is undergoing testing at Astrotech before its scheduled launch July 12 on an Atlas-IIA booster, Centaur upper stage from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station

Estimating predictive hydrological uncertainty by dressing deterministic and ensemble forecasts; a comparison, with application to Meuse and Rhine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verkade, J. S.; Brown, J. D.; Davids, F.; Reggiani, P.; Weerts, A. H.

2017-12-01

Two statistical post-processing approaches for estimation of predictive hydrological uncertainty are compared: (i) 'dressing' of a deterministic forecast by adding a single, combined estimate of both hydrological and meteorological uncertainty and (ii) 'dressing' of an ensemble streamflow forecast by adding an estimate of hydrological uncertainty to each individual streamflow ensemble member. Both approaches aim to produce an estimate of the 'total uncertainty' that captures both the meteorological and hydrological uncertainties. They differ in the degree to which they make use of statistical post-processing techniques. In the 'lumped' approach, both sources of uncertainty are lumped by post-processing deterministic forecasts using their verifying observations. In the 'source-specific' approach, the meteorological uncertainties are estimated by an ensemble of weather forecasts. These ensemble members are routed through a hydrological model and a realization of the probability distribution of hydrological uncertainties (only) is then added to each ensemble member to arrive at an estimate of the total uncertainty. The techniques are applied to one location in the Meuse basin and three locations in the Rhine basin. Resulting forecasts are assessed for their reliability and sharpness, as well as compared in terms of multiple verification scores including the relative mean error, Brier Skill Score, Mean Continuous Ranked Probability Skill Score, Relative Operating Characteristic Score and Relative Economic Value. The dressed deterministic forecasts are generally more reliable than the dressed ensemble forecasts, but the latter are sharper. On balance, however, they show similar quality across a range of verification metrics, with the dressed ensembles coming out slightly better. Some additional analyses are suggested. Notably, these include statistical post-processing of the meteorological forecasts in order to increase their reliability, thus increasing the reliability of the streamflow forecasts produced with ensemble meteorological forcings.

SSE Data and Information

Atmospheric Science Data Center

2018-04-03

Surface meteorology and Solar Energy (SSE) Data and Information The Release 6.0 Surface meteorology and Solar Energy ( SSE ) data set contains parameters formulated for assessing and designing renewable energy systems. This latest release contains new parameters based on ...

A climatological description of the Savannah River Site

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hunter, C.H.

1990-05-22

This report provides a general climatological description of the Savannah River Site. The description provides both regional and local scale climatology. The regional climatology includes a general regional climatic description and presents information on occurrence frequencies of the severe meteorological phenomena that are important considerations in the design and siting of a facility. These phenomena include tornadoes, thunderstorms, hurricanes, and ice/snow storms. Occurrence probabilities given for extreme tornado and non-tornado winds are based on previous site specific studies. Local climatological conditions that are significant with respect to the impact of facility operations on the environment are described using on-site ormore » near-site meteorological data. Summaries of wind speed, wind direction, and atmospheric stability are primarily based on the most recently generated five-year set of data collected from the onsite meteorological tower network (1982--86). Temperature, humidity, and precipitation summaries include data from SRL's standard meteorological instrument shelter and the Augusta National Weather Service office at Bush Field through 1986. A brief description of the onsite meteorological monitoring program is also provided. 24 refs., 15 figs., 22 tabs.« less

Economic benefits of meteorological services

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Freebairn, John W.; Zillman, John W.

2002-03-01

There is an increasing need for more rigorous and more broadly based determination of the economic value of meteorological services as an aid to decision-making on the appropriate level of funding to be committed to their provision at the national level. This paper develops an overall framework for assessment of the economic value of meteorological services based on the recognition that most national meteorological infrastructure and services possess the non rival properties of public goods. Given this overall framework for determination of both total and marginal benefits, four main methodologies appropriate for use in valuation studies - market prices, normative or prescriptive decision-making models, descriptive behavioural response studies and contingent valuation studies - are outlined and their strengths and limitations described. Notwithstanding the methodological limitations and the need for a much more comprehensive set of studies for the various application sectors, it is clear that the actual and potential benefits to individuals, firms, industry sectors and national economies from state-of-the-art meteorological and related services are substantial and that, at this stage, they are inadequately recognised and insufficiently exploited in many countries.

Oceanography Satellite Launches on This Week @NASA – January 22, 2016

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-01-22

On Jan. 17, Jason-3, a U.S.-European oceanography satellite mission launched from California’s Vandenberg Air Force Base aboard a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket. The mission is led by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in partnership with NASA, the French space agency, CNES, and the European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites. After a six-month checkout period, Jason-3 will start full science operations – continuing a nearly quarter-century record of tracking global sea level rise, direction of ocean currents and amount of solar energy stored by oceans – all, key data to understanding changes in global climate and more accurately forecasting severe weather. Also, 2015 global temperatures announced, 10-year anniversary of New Horizons’ launch and ABCs from space!

A radionuclide counting technique for measuring wind velocity. [drag force anemometers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Singh, J. J.; Khandelwal, G. S.; Mall, G. H.

1981-01-01

A technique for measuring wind velocities of meteorological interest is described. It is based on inverse-square-law variation of the counting rates as the radioactive source-to-counter distance is changed by wind drag on the source ball. Results of a feasibility study using a weak bismuth 207 radiation source and three Geiger-Muller radiation counters are reported. The use of the technique is not restricted to Martian or Mars-like environments. A description of the apparatus, typical results, and frequency response characteristics are included. A discussion of a double-pendulum arrangement is presented. Measurements reported herein indicate that the proposed technique may be suitable for measuring wind speeds up to 100 m/sec, which are either steady or whose rates of fluctuation are less than 1 kHz.

Mesoscale Dynamical Regimes in the Midlatitudes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Craig, G. C.; Selz, T.

2018-01-01

The atmospheric mesoscales are characterized by a complex variety of meteorological phenomena that defy simple classification. Here a full space-time spectral analysis is carried out, based on a 7 day convection-permitting simulation of springtime midlatitude weather on a large domain. The kinetic energy is largest at synoptic scales, and on the mesoscale it is largely confined to an "advective band" where space and time scales are related by a constant of proportionality which corresponds to a velocity scale of about 10 m s-1. Computing the relative magnitude of different terms in the governing equations allows the identification of five dynamical regimes. These are tentatively identified as quasi-geostrophic flow, propagating gravity waves, stationary gravity waves related to orography, acoustic modes, and a weak temperature gradient regime, where vertical motions are forced by diabatic heating.

Narrowing the Gap in Quantification of Aerosol-Cloud Radiative Effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feingold, G.; McComiskey, A. C.; Yamaguchi, T.; Kazil, J.; Johnson, J. S.; Carslaw, K. S.

2016-12-01

Despite large advances in our understanding of aerosol and cloud processes over the past years, uncertainty in the aerosol-cloud radiative effect/forcing is still of major concern. In this talk we will advocate a methodology for quantifying the aerosol-cloud radiative effect that considers the primacy of fundamental cloud properties such as cloud amount and albedo alongside the need for process level understanding of aerosol-cloud interactions. We will present a framework for quantifying the aerosol-cloud radiative effect, regime-by-regime, through process-based modelling and observations at the large eddy scale. We will argue that understanding the co-variability between meteorological and aerosol drivers of the radiative properties of the cloud system may be as important an endeavour as attempting to untangle these drivers.

Natural environment analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1985-01-01

Qualitative analyses (and quantitatively to the extend possible) of the influence of terrain features on wind loading of the space shuttle while on the launch pad, or during early liftoff, are presented. Initially, the climatology and meteorology producing macroscale wind patterns and characteristics fot he Vandenburg Air Force Base (VAFB) launch site are described. Also, limited field test data are analyzed, and then the nature and characteristic of flow disturbances due to the various terrain features, both natural and man-made, are then reviewed. Following this, the magnitude of these wind loads are estimated. Finally, effects of turbulence are discussed. The study concludes that the influence of complex terrain can create significant wind loading on the vehicle. Because of the limited information, it is not possible to quantify the magnitude of these loads.

Statistical methods and regression analysis of stratospheric ozone and meteorological variables in Isfahan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hassanzadeh, S.; Hosseinibalam, F.; Omidvari, M.

2008-04-01

Data of seven meteorological variables (relative humidity, wet temperature, dry temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, ground temperature and sun radiation time) and ozone values have been used for statistical analysis. Meteorological variables and ozone values were analyzed using both multiple linear regression and principal component methods. Data for the period 1999-2004 are analyzed jointly using both methods. For all periods, temperature dependent variables were highly correlated, but were all negatively correlated with relative humidity. Multiple regression analysis was used to fit the meteorological variables using the meteorological variables as predictors. A variable selection method based on high loading of varimax rotated principal components was used to obtain subsets of the predictor variables to be included in the linear regression model of the meteorological variables. In 1999, 2001 and 2002 one of the meteorological variables was weakly influenced predominantly by the ozone concentrations. However, the model did not predict that the meteorological variables for the year 2000 were not influenced predominantly by the ozone concentrations that point to variation in sun radiation. This could be due to other factors that were not explicitly considered in this study.

Effects of meteorological droughts on agricultural water resources in southern China

Treesearch

Houquan Lu; Yihua Wu; Yijun Li; Yongqiang Liu

2017-01-01

With the global warming, frequencies of drought are rising in the humid area of southern China. In this study, the effects of meteorological drought on the agricultural water resource based on the agricultural water resource carrying capacity (AWRCC) in southern China were investigated. The entire study area was divided into three regions based on the...

Quantification of water-level variability effect on plant species populations using paleoecological and hydrological time series data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Roehl, Edwin A.; Conrads, Paul; Bernhardt, Christopher

2012-01-01

Soil cores provide valuable data on historical changes in vegetation and hydrologic conditions. Empirical models were developed to quantify the effect of meteorological and hydrologic forcing on plant species distributions over a 110-year period in Water Conservation Area 1 (WCA1) in the Florida Everglades, also known as the Arthur R. Marshall Loxahatchee National Wildlife Refuge. Empirical models that predict plant species distributions at sites within WCA1 were developed by linking temporally sparse seed bank data from soil cores with continuous multi-decadal daily meteorological and hydrologic time series data. The meteorological data included rainfall and maximum daily temperatures that spanned the entire study period of 110 years. The hydrologic data included stage data from two gages in WCA1 established in 1954. These stage data were hindcasted to be concurrent with the meteorological data by using correlation models that fit measured stages as a function of the meteorological parameters. The historical plant species data came from seven peat cores from WCA1. Different depths from each core were carbon-dated and assayed for relative percentages of 83 plant species using pollen counts. The oldest dates were more than 1,000 years old; however, only core data that overlapped the study period were used, for a total of 67 assays among the seven cores. Twenty-three of the species had ratios of at least 5 percent for one or more of the 67 assays, hereafter referred to as the "top23". Using the assays as input vectors, the top23 were grouped using the k-means clustering into four plant classes that represented the extent to which the various species have historically appeared together. This reduced the modeling problem to one of predicting the relative ratios of the four plant classes from the hindcasted stage time-series data. A separate empirical model was developed for each class using a multi-layer perceptron artificial neural network, which provides multivariate, nonlinear curve fitting. The models predicted the relative ratios of the classes, and the sums of the predictions are near 1. The coefficient of determination (R2) of the models varied from 0.87 to 0.96, indicating that the relative ratios of the plant classes are predictable, and therefore controllable, from stage forcing. Similar soil cores are available for the Coastal Plain of North Carolina and are planned for the Congaree National Park in South Carolina.

Tonopah Test Range Air Monitoring: CY2016 Meteorological, Radiological, and Wind Transported Particulate Observations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chapman, Jenny; Nikolich, George; Shadel, Craig

In 1963, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) (formerly the Atomic Energy Commission [AEC]), implemented Operation Roller Coaster on the Tonopah Test Range (TTR) and an adjacent area of the Nevada Test and Training Range (NTTR) (formerly the Nellis Air Force Range). This operation resulted in radionuclide-contaminated soils at the Clean Slate I, II, and III sites. This report documents observations made during ongoing monitoring of radiological, meteorological, and dust conditions at stations installed adjacent to Clean Slate I and Clean Slate III, and at the TTR Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) Range Operations Control (ROC) center. The primary objective ofmore » the monitoring effort is to determine if wind blowing across the Clean Slate sites is transporting particles of radionuclide-contaminated soil beyond the physical and administrative boundaries of the sites.« less

Socio-demographic Characteristics and Leading Causes of Death Among the Casualties of Meteorological Events Compared With All-cause Deaths in Korea, 2000-2011

PubMed Central

Lee, Kyung Eun; Myung, Hyung-Nam; Na, Wonwoong

2013-01-01

Objectives This study investigated the socio-demographic characteristics and medical causes of death among meteorological disaster casualties and compared them with deaths from all causes. Methods Based on the death data provided by the National Statistical Office from 2000 to 2011, the authors analyzed the gender, age, and region of 709 casualties whose external causes were recorded as natural events (X330-X389). Exact matching was applied to compare between deaths from meteorological disasters and all deaths. Results The total number of deaths for last 12 years was 2 728 505. After exact matching, 642 casualties of meteorological disasters were matched to 6815 all-cause deaths, which were defined as general deaths. The mean age of the meteorological disaster casualties was 51.56, which was lower than that of the general deaths by 17.02 (p<0.001). As for the gender ratio, 62.34% of the meteorological event casualties were male. While 54.09% of the matched all-cause deaths occurred at a medical institution, only 7.6% of casualties from meteorological events did. As for occupation, the rate of those working in agriculture, forestry, and fishery jobs was twice as high in the casualties from meteorological disasters as that in the general deaths (p<0.001). Meteorological disaster-related injuries like drowning were more prevalent in the casualties of meteorological events (57.48%). The rate of amputation and crushing injury in deaths from meteorological disasters was three times as high as in the general deaths. Conclusions The new information gained on the particular characteristics contributing to casualties from meteorological events will be useful for developing prevention policies. PMID:24137528

Long-term Changes in Extreme Air Pollution Meteorology and the Implications for Air Quality.

PubMed

Hou, Pei; Wu, Shiliang

2016-03-31

Extreme air pollution meteorological events, such as heat waves, temperature inversions and atmospheric stagnation episodes, can significantly affect air quality. Based on observational data, we have analyzed the long-term evolution of extreme air pollution meteorology on the global scale and their potential impacts on air quality, especially the high pollution episodes. We have identified significant increasing trends for the occurrences of extreme air pollution meteorological events in the past six decades, especially over the continental regions. Statistical analysis combining air quality data and meteorological data further indicates strong sensitivities of air quality (including both average air pollutant concentrations and high pollution episodes) to extreme meteorological events. For example, we find that in the United States the probability of severe ozone pollution when there are heat waves could be up to seven times of the average probability during summertime, while temperature inversions in wintertime could enhance the probability of severe particulate matter pollution by more than a factor of two. We have also identified significant seasonal and spatial variations in the sensitivity of air quality to extreme air pollution meteorology.

Development and assessment of Transpirative Deficit Index (D-TDI) for agricultural drought monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borghi, Anna; Rienzner, Michele; Gandolfi, Claudio; Facchi, Arianna

2017-04-01

Drought is a major cause of crop yield loss, both in rainfed and irrigated agroecosystems. In past decades, many approaches have been developed to assess agricultural drought, usually based on the monitoring or modelling of the soil water content condition. All these indices show weaknesses when applied for a real time drought monitoring and management at the local scale, since they do not consider explicitly crops and soil properties at an adequate spatial resolution. This work describes a newly developed agricultural drought index, called Transpirative Deficit Index (D-TDI), and assesses the results of its application over a study area of about 210 km2 within the Po River Plain (northern Italy). The index is based on transforming the interannual distribution of the transpirative deficit (potential crop transpiration minus actual transpiration), calculated daily by means of a spatially distributed conceptual hydrological model and cumulated over user-selected time-steps, to a standard normal distribution (following the approach proposed by the meteorological index SPI - Standard Precipitation Index). For the application to the study area a uniform maize crop cover (maize is the most widespread crop in the area) and 22-year (1993-2014) meteorological data series were considered. Simulation results consist in maps of the index cumulated over 10-day time steps over a mesh with cells of 250 m. A correlation analysis was carried out (1) to study the characteristics and the memory of D-TDI and to assess its intra- and inter-annual variability, (2) to assess the response of the agricultural drought (i.e., the information provided by D-TDI) to the meteorological drought computed through the SPI over different temporal steps. The D-TDI is positively auto-correlated with a persistence of 30 days, and positively cross-correlated to the SPI with a persistence of 40 days, demonstrating that D-TDI responds to meteorological forcing. Correlation analyses demonstrate that soils characterized by high available water content (AWC) can more easily compensate for a short-term variability in the precipitation pattern, while soils with low AWC are more strictly linked to the SPI variability. Since D-TDI relies both on climate and fine-resolution soil and land cover data, it provides a reliable measure of the evolution of agricultural drought over the territory with respect to that achieved through meteorological drought indices. The accumulation of the index over a 10-day period considering a mesh with cells of 250 m allows to capture the response of the territory to drought at time and spatial scales of interest for stakeholders. Modelling efforts utilizing the D-TDI have potential to shed light on the vulnerability of agricultural areas to drought; future work using the D-TDI as a tool to map drought prone areas could therefore improve the ability of farmers and irrigation district managers to cope with agricultural droughts and set up adaptation actions. Despite D-TDI was used in this study on historical data series, the index has the potential to be applied for real-time or provisional monitoring by incorporating real time or provisional meteorological data, giving the opportunity to stakeholders to promptly cope with droughts.

The astrological roots of mesmerism.

PubMed

Schaffer, Simon

2010-06-01

Franz Anton Mesmer's 1766 thesis on the influence of the planets on the human body, in which he first publicly presented his account of the harmonic forces at work in the microcosm, was substantially copied from the London physician Richard Mead's early eighteenth century tract on solar and lunar effects on the body. The relation between the two texts poses intriguing problems for the historiography of medical astrology: Mesmer's use of Mead has been taken as a sign of the Vienna physician's enlightened modernity while Mead's use of astro-meteorology has been seen as evidence of the survival of antiquated astral medicine in the eighteenth century. Two aspects of this problem are discussed. First, French critics of mesmerism in the 1780s found precedents for animal magnetism in the work of Paracelsus, Fludd and other early modern writers; in so doing, they began to develop a sophisticated history for astrology and astro-meteorology. Second, the close relations between astro-meteorology and Mead's project illustrate how the environmental medical programmes emerged. The making of a history for astrology accompanied the construction of various models of the relation between occult knowledge and its contexts in the enlightenment.

Using Meteorological Analogues for Reordering Postprocessed Precipitation Ensembles in Hydrological Forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bellier, Joseph; Bontron, Guillaume; Zin, Isabella

2017-12-01

Meteorological ensemble forecasts are nowadays widely used as input of hydrological models for probabilistic streamflow forecasting. These forcings are frequently biased and have to be statistically postprocessed, using most of the time univariate techniques that apply independently to individual locations, lead times and weather variables. Postprocessed ensemble forecasts therefore need to be reordered so as to reconstruct suitable multivariate dependence structures. The Schaake shuffle and ensemble copula coupling are the two most popular methods for this purpose. This paper proposes two adaptations of them that make use of meteorological analogues for reconstructing spatiotemporal dependence structures of precipitation forecasts. Performances of the original and adapted techniques are compared through a multistep verification experiment using real forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. This experiment evaluates not only multivariate precipitation forecasts but also the corresponding streamflow forecasts that derive from hydrological modeling. Results show that the relative performances of the different reordering methods vary depending on the verification step. In particular, the standard Schaake shuffle is found to perform poorly when evaluated on streamflow. This emphasizes the crucial role of the precipitation spatiotemporal dependence structure in hydrological ensemble forecasting.

Surveillance and Control of Malaria Transmission Using Remotely Sensed Meteorological and Environmental Parameters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kiang, R.; Adimi, F.; Nigro, J.

2007-01-01

Meteorological and environmental parameters important to malaria transmission include temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, and vegetation conditions. These parameters can most conveniently be obtained using remote sensing. Selected provinces and districts in Thailand and Indonesia are used to illustrate how remotely sensed meteorological and environmental parameters may enhance the capabilities for malaria surveillance and control. Hindcastings based on these environmental parameters have shown good agreement to epidemiological records.

Assimilation of water temperature and discharge data for ensemble water temperature forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ouellet-Proulx, Sébastien; Chimi Chiadjeu, Olivier; Boucher, Marie-Amélie; St-Hilaire, André

2017-11-01

Recent work demonstrated the value of water temperature forecasts to improve water resources allocation and highlighted the importance of quantifying their uncertainty adequately. In this study, we perform a multisite cascading ensemble assimilation of discharge and water temperature on the Nechako River (Canada) using particle filters. Hydrological and thermal initial conditions were provided to a rainfall-runoff model, coupled to a thermal module, using ensemble meteorological forecasts as inputs to produce 5 day ensemble thermal forecasts. Results show good performances of the particle filters with improvements of the accuracy of initial conditions by more than 65% compared to simulations without data assimilation for both the hydrological and the thermal component. All thermal forecasts returned continuous ranked probability scores under 0.8 °C when using a set of 40 initial conditions and meteorological forecasts comprising 20 members. A greater contribution of the initial conditions to the total uncertainty of the system for 1-dayforecasts is observed (mean ensemble spread = 1.1 °C) compared to meteorological forcings (mean ensemble spread = 0.6 °C). The inclusion of meteorological uncertainty is critical to maintain reliable forecasts and proper ensemble spread for lead times of 2 days and more. This work demonstrates the ability of the particle filters to properly update the initial conditions of a coupled hydrological and thermal model and offers insights regarding the contribution of two major sources of uncertainty to the overall uncertainty in thermal forecasts.

Enviro-HIRLAM Applicability for Black Carbon Studies in Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nuterman, Roman; Mahura, Alexander; Baklanov, Alexander; Kurganskiy, Alexander; Amstrup, Bjarne; Kaas, Eigil

2015-04-01

One of the main aims of the Nordic CarboNord project ("Impact of black carbon on air quality and climate in Northern Europe and Arctic") is focused on providing new information on distribution and effects of black carbon in Northern Europe and Arctic. It can be done through assessing robustness of model predictions of long-range black carbon distribution and its relation to climate change and forcing. In our study, the online integrated meteorology-chemistry/aerosols model - Enviro-HIRLAM (Environment - HIgh Resolution Limited Area Model) - is used. This study, at first, is focused on adaptation (model setup, domain for the Northern Hemisphere and Arctic region, emissions, boundary conditions, refining aerosols microphysics and chemistry, cloud-aerosol interaction processes) of Enviro-HIRLAM model and selection of most unfavorable weather and air pollution episodes for the Arctic region. Simulations of interactions between black carbon and meteorological processes in northern conditions for selected episodes will be performed (at DMI's supercomputer HPC CRAY-XT5), and then long-term simulations at regional scale for selected winter vs. summer months. Modelling results will be compared on a diurnal cycle and monthly basis against observations for key meteorological parameters (such as air temperature, wind speed, relative humidity, and precipitation) as well as aerosol concentration. Finally, evaluation of black carbon atmospheric transport, dispersion, and deposition patterns at different spatio-temporal scales; physical-chemical processes and transformations of black carbon containing aerosols; and interactions and effects between black carbon and meteorological processes in Arctic weather conditions will be done.

Improvement of fog predictability in a coupled system of PAFOG and WRF

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Wonheung; Yum, Seong Soo; Kim, Chang Ki

2017-04-01

Fog is difficult to predict because of the multi-scale nature of its formation mechanism: not only the synoptic conditions but also the local meteorological conditions crucially influence fog formation. Coarse vertical resolution and parameterization errors in fog prediction models are also critical reasons for low predictability. In this study, we use a coupled model system of a 3D mesoscale model (WRF) and a single column model with a fine vertical resolution (PAFOG, PArameterized FOG) to simulate fogs formed over the southern coastal region of the Korean Peninsula, where National Center for Intensive Observation of Severe Weather (NCIO) is located. NCIO is unique in that it has a 300 m meteorological tower built at the location to measure basic meteorological variables (temperature, dew point temperature and winds) at eleven different altitudes, and comprehensive atmospheric physics measurements are made with the various remote sensing instruments such as visibility meter, cloud radar, wind profiler, microwave radiometer, and ceilometer. These measurement data are used as input data to the model system and for evaluating the results. Particularly the data for initial and external forcings, which are tightly connected to the predictability of coupled model system, are derived from the tower measurement. This study aims at finding out the most important factors that influence fog predictability of the coupled system for NCIO. Nudging of meteorological tower data and soil moisture variability are found to be critically influencing fog predictability. Detailed results will be discussed at the conference.

Meteorological Modeling of Wintertime Cold Air Pool Stagnation Episodes in the Uintah and Salt Lake Basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crosman, E.; Horel, J.; Blaylock, B. K.; Foster, C.

2014-12-01

High wintertime ozone concentrations in rural areas associated with oil and gas development and high particulate concentrations in urban areas have become topics of increasing concern in the Western United States, as both primary and secondary pollutants become trapped within stable wintertime boundary layers. While persistent cold air pools that enable such poor wintertime air quality are typically associated with high pressure aloft and light winds, the complex physical processes that contribute to the formation, maintenance, and decay of persistent wintertime temperature inversions are only partially understood. In addition, obtaining sufficiently accurate numerical weather forecasts and meteorological simulations of cold air pools for input into chemical models remains a challenge. This study examines the meteorological processes associated with several wintertime pollution episodes in Utah's Uintah and Salt Lake Basins using numerical Weather Research and Forecasting model simulations and observations collected from the Persistent Cold Air Pool and Uintah Basin Ozone Studies. The temperature, vertical structure, and winds within these cold air pools was found to vary as a function of snow cover, snow albedo, land use, cloud cover, large-scale synoptic flow, and episode duration. We evaluate the sensitivity of key atmospheric features such as stability, planetary boundary layer depth, local wind flow patterns and transport mechanisms to variations in surface forcing, clouds, and synoptic flow. Finally, noted deficiencies in the meteorological models of cold air pools and modifications to the model snow and microphysics treatment that have resulted in improved cold pool simulations will be presented.

A study of the mechanism of internal gravity wave generation by quasigeostrophic meteorological motions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Medvedev, A. S.

1987-01-01

Numerous experiments on the detection of atmospheric waves in the frequency range from acoustic to planetary at meteor heights have revealed that important wave sources are meteorological processes in the troposphere (cyclones, atmospheric fronts, jet streams, etc.). A dynamical theory based on the others work include describing the adaptation of meteorological fields to the geostropic equilibrium state. According to this theory, wave motions appear as a result of constant competition between the maladjustment of the wind and pressure fields due to nonlinear effects and the tendency of the atmosphere to establish a quasi-geostrophic equilibrium of these fields. These meteorological fields are discussed.

A study of the mechanism of internal gravity wave generation by quasigeostrophic meteorological motions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Medvedev, A. S.

1987-08-01

Numerous experiments on the detection of atmospheric waves in the frequency range from acoustic to planetary at meteor heights have revealed that important wave sources are meteorological processes in the troposphere (cyclones, atmospheric fronts, jet streams, etc.). A dynamical theory based on the others work include describing the adaptation of meteorological fields to the geostropic equilibrium state. According to this theory, wave motions appear as a result of constant competition between the maladjustment of the wind and pressure fields due to nonlinear effects and the tendency of the atmosphere to establish a quasi-geostrophic equilibrium of these fields. These meteorological fields are discussed.

Regional Aerosol Optical Properties and Radiative Impact of the Extreme Smoke Event in the European Arctic in Spring 2006

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lund Myhre, C.; Toledano, C.; Myhre, G.; Stebel, K.; Yttri, K.; Aaltonen, V.; Johnsrud, M.; Frioud, M.; Cachorro, V.; deFrutos, A.;

A Reduced Form Model for Ozone Based on Two Decades of ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

A Reduced Form Model (RFM) is a mathematical relationship between the inputs and outputs of an air quality model, permitting estimation of additional modeling without costly new regional-scale simulations. A 21-year Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) simulation for the continental United States provided the basis for the RFM developed in this study. Predictors included the principal component scores (PCS) of emissions and meteorological variables, while the predictand was the monthly mean of daily maximum 8-hour CMAQ ozone for the ozone season at each model grid. The PCS form an orthogonal basis for RFM inputs. A few PCS incorporate most of the variability of emissions and meteorology, thereby reducing the dimensionality of the source-receptor problem. Stochastic kriging was used to estimate the model. The RFM was used to separate the effects of emissions and meteorology on ozone concentrations. by running the RFM with emissions constant (ozone dependent on meteorology), or constant meteorology (ozone dependent on emissions). Years with ozone-conducive meteorology were identified, and meteorological variables best explaining meteorology-dependent ozone were identified. Meteorology accounted for 19% to 55% of ozone variability in the eastern US, and 39% to 92% in the western US. Temporal trends estimated for original CMAQ ozone data and emission-dependent ozone were mostly negative, but the confidence intervals for emission-dependent ozone are much

Invited perspectives: Hydrological perspectives on precipitation intensity-duration thresholds for landslide initiation: proposing hydro-meteorological thresholds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bogaard, Thom; Greco, Roberto

2018-01-01

Many shallow landslides and debris flows are precipitation initiated. Therefore, regional landslide hazard assessment is often based on empirically derived precipitation intensity-duration (ID) thresholds and landslide inventories. Generally, two features of precipitation events are plotted and labeled with (shallow) landslide occurrence or non-occurrence. Hereafter, a separation line or zone is drawn, mostly in logarithmic space. The practical background of ID is that often only meteorological information is available when analyzing (non-)occurrence of shallow landslides and, at the same time, it could be that precipitation information is a good proxy for both meteorological trigger and hydrological cause. Although applied in many case studies, this approach suffers from many false positives as well as limited physical process understanding. Some first steps towards a more hydrologically based approach have been proposed in the past, but these efforts received limited follow-up.Therefore, the objective of our paper is to (a) critically analyze the concept of precipitation ID thresholds for shallow landslides and debris flows from a hydro-meteorological point of view and (b) propose a trigger-cause conceptual framework for lumped regional hydro-meteorological hazard assessment based on published examples and associated discussion. We discuss the ID thresholds in relation to return periods of precipitation, soil physics, and slope and catchment water balance. With this paper, we aim to contribute to the development of a stronger conceptual model for regional landslide hazard assessment based on physical process understanding and empirical data.

[Real-time irrigation forecast of cotton mulched with plastic film under drip irrigation based on meteorological date].

PubMed

Shen, Xiao-jun; Sun, Jing-sheng; Li, Ming-si; Zhang, Ji-yang; Wang, Jing-lei; Li, Dong-wei

2015-02-01

It is important to improve the real-time irrigation forecasting precision by predicting real-time water consumption of cotton mulched with plastic film under drip irrigation based on meteorological data and cotton growth status. The model parameters for calculating ET0 based on Hargreaves formula were determined using historical meteorological data from 1953 to 2008 in Shihezi reclamation area. According to the field experimental data of growing season in 2009-2010, the model of computing crop coefficient Kc was established based on accumulated temperature. On the basis of crop water requirement (ET0) and Kc, a real-time irrigation forecast model was finally constructed, and it was verified by the field experimental data in 2011. The results showed that the forecast model had high forecasting precision, and the average absolute values of relative error between the predicted value and measured value were about 3.7%, 2.4% and 1.6% during seedling, squaring and blossom-boll forming stages, respectively. The forecast model could be used to modify the predicted values in time according to the real-time meteorological data and to guide the water management in local film-mulched cotton field under drip irrigation.

Intercomparison of a 'Bottom-up' and 'Top-down' Modeling Paradigm for estimating carbon and latent heat fluxes over a variety of vegetative regimes across the U.S., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Biophysical models intended for routine applications at a range of scales should attempt to balance the competing demands of generality and simplicity and be capable of realistically simulating the response of CO2 and energy fluxes to environmental and physiological forcings. At the same time they m...

Temperature Calculations in the Coastal Modeling System

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-04-01

tide) and river discharge at model boundaries, wave radiation stress, and wind forcing over a model computational domain. Physical processes calculated...calculated in the CMS using the following meteorological parameters: solar radiation, cloud cover, air temperature, wind speed, and surface water temperature...during a clear (i.e., cloudless) sky (Wm-2); CLDC is the cloud cover fraction (0-1.0); SWR is the surface reflection coefficient; and SHDf is the

Innovations in Basic Flight Training for the Indonesian Air Force

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-12-01

microeconomic theory that could approximate the optimum mix of training hours between an aircraft and simulator, and therefore improve cost effectiveness...The microeconomic theory being used is normally employed when showing production with two variable inputs. An example of variable inputs would be labor...NAS Corpus Christi, Texas, Aerodynamics of the T-34C, 1989. 26. Naval Air Training Command, NAS Corpus Christi, Texas, Meteorological Theory Workbook

Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Handbook for Air Force Communications Service Communications-Electronics-Meteorological Engineers

DTIC Science & Technology

1976-11-01

protec- tion and will require additional measures, such as the application of conductive filter-loaded plastic resins to each joint connection...Lawrence Liver- more Laboratory, Livermore CA, 1974 31. Whitson, A. L., "DCA HEMP Hardness Certification Methodology Status", Stanford Research...of Chief of Engineers, Depot of the Army, December 1971 34. "Development of HEMP Assessment Methodology for Satellite Terminals", Intelcom Rad Tech

KSC01pp0796

NASA Image and Video Library

2001-04-12

At Astrotech, Titusville, Fla., the GOES-M (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite) satellite is tilted on a workstand so that workers can remove part of the protective cover. The GOES-M provides weather imagery and quantitative sounding data used to support weather forecasting, severe storm tracking and meteorological research. The satellite will undergo testing at Astrotech before its scheduled launch July 12 on an Atlas-IIA booster, Centaur upper stage from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station

Computer programs for producing single-event aircraft noise data for specific engine power and meteorological conditions for use with USAF (United States Air Force) community noise model (NOISEMAP)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohlman, H. T.

1983-04-01

The Air Force community noise prediction model (NOISEMAP) is used to describe the aircraft noise exposure around airbases and thereby aid airbase planners to minimize exposure and prevent community encroachment which could limit mission effectiveness of the installation. This report documents two computer programs (OMEGA 10 and OMEGA 11) which were developed to prepare aircraft flight and ground runup noise data for input to NOISEMAP. OMEGA 10 is for flight operations and OMEGA 11 is for aircraft ground runups. All routines in each program are documented at a level useful to a programmer working with the code or a reader interested in a general overview of what happens within a specific subroutine. Both programs input normalized, reference aircraft noise data; i.e., data at a standard reference distance from the aircraft, for several fixed engine power settings, a reference airspeed and standard day meteorological conditions. Both programs operate on these normalized, reference data in accordance with user-defined, non-reference conditions to derive single-event noise data for 22 distances (200 to 25,000 feet) in a variety of physical and psycho-acoustic metrics. These outputs are in formats ready for input to NOISEMAP.

Influence of spatial and temporal scales in identifying temperature extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Eck, Christel M.; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Mulder, Vera L.; Regnier, Pierre A. G.

2016-04-01

Extreme heat events are becoming more frequent. Notable are severe heatwaves such as the European heatwave of 2003, the Russian heat wave of 2010 and the Australian heatwave of 2013. Surface temperature is attaining new maxima not only during the summer but also during the winter. The year of 2015 is reported to be a temperature record breaking year for both summer and winter. These extreme temperatures are taking their human and environmental toll, emphasizing the need for an accurate method to define a heat extreme in order to fully understand the spatial and temporal spread of an extreme and its impact. This research aims to explore how the use of different spatial and temporal scales influences the identification of a heat extreme. For this purpose, two near-surface temperature datasets of different temporal scale and spatial scale are being used. First, the daily ERA-Interim dataset of 0.25 degree and a time span of 32 years (1979-2010). Second, the daily Princeton Meteorological Forcing Dataset of 0.5 degree and a time span of 63 years (1948-2010). A temperature is considered extreme anomalous when it is surpassing the 90th, 95th, or the 99th percentile threshold based on the aforementioned pre-processed datasets. The analysis is conducted on a global scale, dividing the world in IPCC's so-called SREX regions developed for the analysis of extreme climate events. Pre-processing is done by detrending and/or subtracting the monthly climatology based on 32 years of data for both datasets and on 63 years of data for only the Princeton Meteorological Forcing Dataset. This results in 6 datasets of temperature anomalies from which the location in time and space of the anomalous warm days are identified. Comparison of the differences between these 6 datasets in terms of absolute threshold temperatures for extremes and the temporal and spatial spread of the extreme anomalous warm days show a dependence of the results on the datasets and methodology used. This stresses the need for a careful selection of data and methodology when identifying heat extremes.

Modeling soil evaporation efficiency in a range of soil and atmospheric conditions using a meta-analysis approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Merlin, O.; Stefan, V. G.; Amazirh, A.; Chanzy, A.; Ceschia, E.; Er-Raki, S.; Gentine, P.; Tallec, T.; Ezzahar, J.; Bircher, S.; Beringer, J.; Khabba, S.

2016-05-01

A meta-analysis data-driven approach is developed to represent the soil evaporative efficiency (SEE) defined as the ratio of actual to potential soil evaporation. The new model is tested across a bare soil database composed of more than 30 sites around the world, a clay fraction range of 0.02-0.56, a sand fraction range of 0.05-0.92, and about 30,000 acquisition times. SEE is modeled using a soil resistance (rss) formulation based on surface soil moisture (θ) and two resistance parameters rss,ref and θefolding. The data-driven approach aims to express both parameters as a function of observable data including meteorological forcing, cut-off soil moisture value θ1/2 at which SEE=0.5, and first derivative of SEE at θ1/2, named Δθ1/2-1. An analytical relationship between >(rss,ref;θefolding) and >(θ1/2;Δθ1/2-1>) is first built by running a soil energy balance model for two extreme conditions with rss = 0 and rss˜∞ using meteorological forcing solely, and by approaching the middle point from the two (wet and dry) reference points. Two different methods are then investigated to estimate the pair >(θ1/2;Δθ1/2-1>) either from the time series of SEE and θ observations for a given site, or using the soil texture information for all sites. The first method is based on an algorithm specifically designed to accomodate for strongly nonlinear SEE>(θ>) relationships and potentially large random deviations of observed SEE from the mean observed SEE>(θ>). The second method parameterizes θ1/2 as a multi-linear regression of clay and sand percentages, and sets Δθ1/2-1 to a constant mean value for all sites. The new model significantly outperformed the evaporation modules of ISBA (Interaction Sol-Biosphère-Atmosphère), H-TESSEL (Hydrology-Tiled ECMWF Scheme for Surface Exchange over Land), and CLM (Community Land Model). It has potential for integration in various land-surface schemes, and real calibration capabilities using combined thermal and microwave remote sensing data.

Global meteorological data facility for real-time field experiments support and guidance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shipham, Mark C.; Shipley, Scott T.; Trepte, Charles R.

1988-01-01

A Global Meteorological Data Facility (GMDF) has been constructed to provide economical real-time meteorological support to atmospheric field experiments. After collection and analysis of meteorological data sets at a central station, tailored meteorological products are transmitted to experiment field sites using conventional ground link or satellite communication techniques. The GMDF supported the Global Tropospheric Experiment Amazon Boundary Layer Experiment (GTE-ABLE II) based in Manaus, Brazil, during July and August 1985; an arctic airborne lidar survey mission for the Polar Stratospheric Clouds (PSC) experiment during January 1986; and the Genesis of Atlantic Lows Experiment (GALE) during January, February and March 1986. GMDF structure is similar to the UNIDATA concept, including meteorological data from the Zephyr Weather Transmission Service, a mode AAA GOES downlink, and dedicated processors for image manipulation, transmission and display. The GMDF improved field experiment operations in general, with the greatest benefits arising from the ability to communicate with field personnel in real time.

Influences of meteorological parameters on indoor radon concentrations (222Rn) excluding the effects of forced ventilation and radon exhalation from soil and building materials.

PubMed

Schubert, Michael; Musolff, Andreas; Weiss, Holger

2018-06-13

Elevated indoor radon concentrations ( 222 Rn) in dwellings pose generally a potential health risk to the inhabitants. During the last decades a considerable number of studies discussed both the different sources of indoor radon and the drivers for diurnal and multi day variations of its concentration. While the potential sources are undisputed, controversial opinions exist regarding their individual relevance and regarding the driving influences that control varying radon indoor concentrations. These drivers include (i) cyclic forced ventilation of dwellings, (ii) the temporal variance of the radon exhalation from soil and building materials due to e.g. a varying moisture content and (iii) diurnal and multi day temperature and pressure patterns. The presented study discusses the influences of last-mentioned temporal meteorological parameters by effectively excluding the influences of forced ventilation and undefined radon exhalation. The results reveal the continuous variation of the indoor/outdoor pressure gradient as key driver for a constant "breathing" of any interior space, which affects the indoor radon concentration with both diurnal and multi day patterns. The diurnally recurring variation of the pressure gradient is predominantly triggered by the day/night cycle of the indoor temperature that is associated with an expansion/contraction of the indoor air volume. Multi day patterns, on the other hand, are mainly due to periods of negative air pressure indoors that is triggered by periods of elevated wind speeds as a result of Bernoulli's principle. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Controls on Variations of Surface Energy, Water, and Carbon Budgets within Large-Scale Amazon Basin

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Eric A.; Cooper, Harry J.; Grose, Andrew; Gu, Jiu-Jing; Norman, John; daRocha, Humberto R.; Dias, Pedro Silva

2002-01-01

A key research focus of the LBA Research Program is understanding the space-time variations in interlinked surface energy, water, and carbon budgets, the controls on these variations, and the implications of these controls on the carbon sequestering capacity of the large scale forest-pasture system that dominates the Amaz6nia landscape. Quantification of these variations and controls are investigated by a combination of in situ measurements, remotely sensed measurements from space, and a realistically forced hydrometeorological model coupled to a carbon assimilation model, capable of simulating details within the surface energy and water budgets along with the principle processes of photosynthesis and respiration. Herein we describe the results of an investigation concerning the space-time controls of carbon sources and sinks distributed over the large scale Amazon basin. The results are derived from a carbon-water-energy budget retrieval system for the large scale Amazon basin, which uses a coupled carbon assimilation-hydrometeorological model as an integrating system, forced by both in situ meteorological measurements and remotely sensed radiation and precipitation fluxes obtained from a combination of GOES, SSM/I, TOMS, and TRh4M satellite measurements. Results include validation of (a) retrieved surface radiation and precipitation fluxes based on 30-min averaged surface measurements taken at Ji-Parani in Rondania and Manaus in Amazonas, and (b) modeled sensible, latent, and C02 fluxes based on tower measurements taken at Reserva Jaru, Manaus and Fazenda Nossa Senhora. The space-time controls on carbon sequestration are partitioned into sets of factors classified by: (1) above canopy meteorology, (2) incoming surface radiation, (3) precipitation interception, and (4) indigenous stomatal processes varied over the different land covers of pristine rainforest, partially, and fully logged rainforests, and pasture lands. These are the principle meteorological, thermodynamical, hydrological, and biophysical control paths which perturb net carbon fluxes and sequestration, produce time-space switching of carbon sources and sinks, undergo modulation through atmospheric boundary layer feedbacks, and respond to any discontinuous intervention on the landscape itself such as produced by human intervention in converting rainforest to pasture or conducting selective/clearcut logging operations. The results demonstrate how relative carbon sequestration capacity of the Amazonian ecosystem responds to these controls, and how interpretation of space-time heterogeneities in carbon sequestration depends on a fairly exact quantification of the interacting non-linear properties of photosynthesis in response to incoming solar flux, air-canopy temperatures, and leaf water interception -- and soil respiration in response to upper layer soil temperature and water content. The results also show how the interpretation of the control processes is highly sensitive to the scales at which the surface fluxes are analyzed.

Improvement of Disease Prediction and Modeling through the Use of Meteorological Ensembles: Human Plague in Uganda

PubMed Central

Moore, Sean M.; Monaghan, Andrew; Griffith, Kevin S.; Apangu, Titus; Mead, Paul S.; Eisen, Rebecca J.

2012-01-01

Climate and weather influence the occurrence, distribution, and incidence of infectious diseases, particularly those caused by vector-borne or zoonotic pathogens. Thus, models based on meteorological data have helped predict when and where human cases are most likely to occur. Such knowledge aids in targeting limited prevention and control resources and may ultimately reduce the burden of diseases. Paradoxically, localities where such models could yield the greatest benefits, such as tropical regions where morbidity and mortality caused by vector-borne diseases is greatest, often lack high-quality in situ local meteorological data. Satellite- and model-based gridded climate datasets can be used to approximate local meteorological conditions in data-sparse regions, however their accuracy varies. Here we investigate how the selection of a particular dataset can influence the outcomes of disease forecasting models. Our model system focuses on plague (Yersinia pestis infection) in the West Nile region of Uganda. The majority of recent human cases have been reported from East Africa and Madagascar, where meteorological observations are sparse and topography yields complex weather patterns. Using an ensemble of meteorological datasets and model-averaging techniques we find that the number of suspected cases in the West Nile region was negatively associated with dry season rainfall (December-February) and positively with rainfall prior to the plague season. We demonstrate that ensembles of available meteorological datasets can be used to quantify climatic uncertainty and minimize its impacts on infectious disease models. These methods are particularly valuable in regions with sparse observational networks and high morbidity and mortality from vector-borne diseases. PMID:23024750

SSE Data and Information Page

Atmospheric Science Data Center

2018-04-04

Surface meteorology and Solar Energy (SSE) Data and Information A new POWER home page ... The Release 6.0 Surface meteorology and Solar Energy (SSE) data set contains parameters formulated for assessing and designing renewable energy systems. This latest release contains new parameters based on ...

Propagation of model and forcing uncertainty into hydrological drought characteristics in a multi-model century-long experiment in continental river basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samaniego, L. E.; Kumar, R.; Schaefer, D.; Huang, S.; Yang, T.; Mishra, V.; Eisner, S.; Vetter, T.; Pechlivanidis, I.; Liersch, S.; Flörke, M.; Krysanova, V.

2015-12-01

Droughts are creeping hydro-meteorological events that bring societiesand natural systems to their limits and inducing considerablesocio-economic losses. Currently it is hypothesized that climate changewill exacerbate current trends leading a more severe and extendeddroughts, as well as, larger than normal recovery periods. Currentassessments, however, lack of a consistent framework to deal withcompatible initial conditions for the impact models and a set ofstandardized historical and future forcings. The ISI-MIP project provides an unique opportunity to understand thepropagation of model and forcing uncertainty into century-long timeseries of drought characteristics using an ensemble of model predictionsacross a broad range of climate scenarios and regions. In the presentstudy, we analyze this issue using the hydrologic simulations carriedout with HYPE, mHM, SWIM, VIC, and WaterGAP3 in seven large continentalriver basins: Amazon, Blue Nile, Ganges, Niger, Mississippi, Rhine,Yellow. All models are calibrated against observed streamflow duringthe period 1971-2001 using the same forcings based on the WATCH datasets. These constrained models were then forced with bias correctedoutputs of five CMIP-5 GCMs under four RCP scenarios (i.e. 2.6, 4.5,6.0, and 8.5 W/m2) for the period 1971-2099. A non-parametric kernel density approach is used to estimate thetemporal evolution of a monthly runoff index based on simulatedstreamflow. Hydrologic simulations corresponding to each GCM during thehistoric period of 1981-2010 serve as reference for the estimation ofthe basin specific monthly probability distribution functions. GCMspecific reference pdfs are then used to recast the future hydrologicmodel outputs from different RCP scenarios. Based on these results,drought severity and duration are investigated during periods: 1)2006-2035, 2) 2036-2065 and 3) 2070-2099. Two main hypothesis areinvestigated: 1) model predictive uncertainty of drought indices amongdifferent hydrologic models is negligible compared to the uncertaintyoriginated from different GCMs and 2) the projected drift of droughtcharacteristics is hydrologic model independent and it is only driven bythe GCM variability. The temporal evolution between drought severity andduration is also analyzed.

Assessing relationships between cattle egret migration and meteorology in the southwest Pacific: a review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bridgman, H. A.; Maddock, M.; Geering, D. J.

The evolution of research into meteorological factors affecting the migration of the Cattle Egret (Ardeola ibis coromandus) in the southwestern Pacific region (Australia, New Zealand and the Tasman Sea) - from ground-based studies dependent on volunteer observers to a pilot satellite-tracking project - is reviewed and the results are related to the literature on bird migration. The predominant pattern is a seasonal migration from breeding colonies in southeast Queensland and northern New South Wales which takes place in stages along the east coastal plain under favourable meteorological conditions. Migration outward (southward) occurs in February through April and return to the breeding colonies occurs in October and November. Wintering destinations include Tasmania, southern Victoria and parts of New Zealand. Favourable meteorological conditions for migration southward include:moderate north to northwest airflow behind a high; light and variable winds in a high or col; and light and variable winds over New South Wales with moderate westerlies over Victoria and Tasmania. A satellite-tracking project helped to validate findings from the ground-based studies, provided additional information not otherwise obtainable, and demonstrated the potential of the technique to further clarify the relation between timing and staging of migration, and meteorology.

Design of extensible meteorological data acquisition system based on FPGA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Wen; Liu, Yin-hua; Zhang, Hui-jun; Li, Xiao-hui

2015-02-01

In order to compensate the tropospheric refraction error generated in the process of satellite navigation and positioning. Temperature, humidity and air pressure had to be used in concerned models to calculate the value of this error. While FPGA XC6SLX16 was used as the core processor, the integrated silicon pressure sensor MPX4115A and digital temperature-humidity sensor SHT75 are used as the basic meteorological parameter detection devices. The core processer was used to control the real-time sampling of ADC AD7608 and to acquire the serial output data of SHT75. The data was stored in the BRAM of XC6SLX16 and used to generate standard meteorological parameters in NEMA format. The whole design was based on Altium hardware platform and ISE software platform. The system was described in the VHDL language and schematic diagram to realize the correct detection of temperature, humidity, air pressure. The 8-channel synchronous sampling characteristics of AD7608 and programmable external resources of FPGA laid the foundation for the increasing of analog or digital meteorological element signal. The designed meteorological data acquisition system featured low cost, high performance, multiple expansions.

Seasonal forecasting of groundwater levels in natural aquifers in the United Kingdom

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mackay, Jonathan; Jackson, Christopher; Pachocka, Magdalena; Brookshaw, Anca; Scaife, Adam

2014-05-01

Groundwater aquifers comprise the world's largest freshwater resource and provide resilience to climate extremes which could become more frequent under future climate changes. Prolonged dry conditions can induce groundwater drought, often characterised by significantly low groundwater levels which may persist for months to years. In contrast, lasting wet conditions can result in anomalously high groundwater levels which result in flooding, potentially at large economic cost. Using computational models to produce groundwater level forecasts allows appropriate management strategies to be considered in advance of extreme events. The majority of groundwater level forecasting studies to date use data-based models, which exploit the long response time of groundwater levels to meteorological drivers and make forecasts based only on the current state of the system. Instead, seasonal meteorological forecasts can be used to drive hydrological models and simulate groundwater levels months into the future. Such approaches have not been used in the past due to a lack of skill in these long-range forecast products. However systems such as the latest version of the Met Office Global Seasonal Forecast System (GloSea5) are now showing increased skill up to a 3-month lead time. We demonstrate the first groundwater level ensemble forecasting system using a multi-member ensemble of hindcasts from GloSea5 between 1996 and 2009 to force 21 simple lumped conceptual groundwater models covering most of the UK's major aquifers. We present the results from this hindcasting study and demonstrate that the system can be used to forecast groundwater levels with some skill up to three months into the future.

The method ADAMONT v1.0 for statistical adjustment of climate projections applicable to energy balance land surface models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verfaillie, Deborah; Déqué, Michel; Morin, Samuel; Lafaysse, Matthieu

2017-11-01

We introduce the method ADAMONT v1.0 to adjust and disaggregate daily climate projections from a regional climate model (RCM) using an observational dataset at hourly time resolution. The method uses a refined quantile mapping approach for statistical adjustment and an analogous method for sub-daily disaggregation. The method ultimately produces adjusted hourly time series of temperature, precipitation, wind speed, humidity, and short- and longwave radiation, which can in turn be used to force any energy balance land surface model. While the method is generic and can be employed for any appropriate observation time series, here we focus on the description and evaluation of the method in the French mountainous regions. The observational dataset used here is the SAFRAN meteorological reanalysis, which covers the entire French Alps split into 23 massifs, within which meteorological conditions are provided for several 300 m elevation bands. In order to evaluate the skills of the method itself, it is applied to the ALADIN-Climate v5 RCM using the ERA-Interim reanalysis as boundary conditions, for the time period from 1980 to 2010. Results of the ADAMONT method are compared to the SAFRAN reanalysis itself. Various evaluation criteria are used for temperature and precipitation but also snow depth, which is computed by the SURFEX/ISBA-Crocus model using the meteorological driving data from either the adjusted RCM data or the SAFRAN reanalysis itself. The evaluation addresses in particular the time transferability of the method (using various learning/application time periods), the impact of the RCM grid point selection procedure for each massif/altitude band configuration, and the intervariable consistency of the adjusted meteorological data generated by the method. Results show that the performance of the method is satisfactory, with similar or even better evaluation metrics than alternative methods. However, results for air temperature are generally better than for precipitation. Results in terms of snow depth are satisfactory, which can be viewed as indicating a reasonably good intervariable consistency of the meteorological data produced by the method. In terms of temporal transferability (evaluated over time periods of 15 years only), results depend on the learning period. In terms of RCM grid point selection technique, the use of a complex RCM grid points selection technique, taking into account horizontal but also altitudinal proximity to SAFRAN massif centre points/altitude couples, generally degrades evaluation metrics for high altitudes compared to a simpler grid point selection method based on horizontal distance.

Evaluation of weather forecast systems for storm surge modeling in the Chesapeake Bay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garzon, Juan L.; Ferreira, Celso M.; Padilla-Hernandez, Roberto

2018-01-01

Accurate forecast of sea-level heights in coastal areas depends, among other factors, upon a reliable coupling of a meteorological forecast system to a hydrodynamic and wave system. This study evaluates the predictive skills of the coupled circulation and wind-wave model system (ADCIRC+SWAN) for simulating storm tides in the Chesapeake Bay, forced by six different products: (1) Global Forecast System (GFS), (2) Climate Forecast System (CFS) version 2, (3) North American Mesoscale Forecast System (NAM), (4) Rapid Refresh (RAP), (5) European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), and (6) the Atlantic hurricane database (HURDAT2). This evaluation is based on the hindcasting of four events: Irene (2011), Sandy (2012), Joaquin (2015), and Jonas (2016). By comparing the simulated water levels to observations at 13 monitoring stations, we have found that the ADCIR+SWAN System forced by the following: (1) the HURDAT2-based system exhibited the weakest statistical skills owing to a noteworthy overprediction of the simulated wind speed; (2) the ECMWF, RAP, and NAM products captured the moment of the peak and moderately its magnitude during all storms, with a correlation coefficient ranging between 0.98 and 0.77; (3) the CFS system exhibited the worst averaged root-mean-square difference (excepting HURDAT2); (4) the GFS system (the lowest horizontal resolution product tested) resulted in a clear underprediction of the maximum water elevation. Overall, the simulations forced by NAM and ECMWF systems induced the most accurate results best accuracy to support water level forecasting in the Chesapeake Bay during both tropical and extra-tropical storms.

Meteorology--An Interdisciplinary Base for Science Learning.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Howell, David C.

1980-01-01

Described is a freshman science program at Deerfield Academy (Deerfield, Mass.) in meteorology, designed as the first part of a three-year unified science sequence. Merits of the course, in which particular emphasis is placed on observation skills and making predictions, are enumerated. (CS)

QUALITY ASSURANCE HANDBOOK FOR AIR POLLUTION MEASUREMENT SYSTEMS: VOLUME IV - METEOROLOGICAL MEASUREMENTS (REVISED - AUGUST 1994)

EPA Science Inventory

Procedures on installing, acceptance testing, operating, maintaining and quality assuring three types of ground-based, upper air meteorological measurement systems are described. he limitations and uncertainties in precision and accuracy measurements associated with these systems...

Towards reliable ET estimates in the semi-arid Júcar region in Spain.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brenner, Johannes; Zink, Matthias; Schrön, Martin; Thober, Stephan; Rakovec, Oldrich; Cuntz, Matthias; Merz, Ralf; Samaniego, Luis

2017-04-01

Current research indicated the potential for improving evapotranspiration (ET) estimates in state-of-the-art hydrologic models such as the mesoscale Hydrological Model (mHM, www.ufz.de/mhm). Most models exhibit deficiencies to estimate the ET flux in semi-arid regions. Possible reasons for poor performance may be related to the low resolution of the forcings, the estimation of the PET, which is in most cases based on temperature only, the joint estimation of the transpiration and evaporation through the Feddes equation, poor process parameterizations, among others. In this study, we aim at sequential hypothesis-based experiments to uncover the main reasons of these deficiencies at the Júcar basin in Spain. We plan the following experiments: 1) Use the high resolution meteorological forcing (P and T) provided by local authorities to estimate its effects on ET and streamflow. 2) Use local ET measurements at seven eddy covariance stations to estimate evaporation related parameters. 3) Test the influence of the PET formulations (Hargreaves-Samani, Priestley-Taylor, Penman-Montheith). 4) Estimate evaporation and transpiration separately based on equations proposed by Bohn and Vivoni (2016) 5) Incorporate local soil moisture measurements to re-estimate ET and soil moisture related parameters. We set-up mHM for seven eddy-covariance sites at the local scale (100 × 100 m2). This resolution was chosen because it is representative for the footprint of the latent heat estimation at the eddy-covariance station. In the second experiment, for example, a parameter set is to be found as a compromised solution between ET measured at local stations and the streamflow observations at eight sub-basins of the Júcar river. Preliminary results indicate that higher model performance regarding streamflow can be achieved using local high-resolution meteorology. ET performance is, however, still deficient. On the contrary, using ET site calibrations alone increase performance in ET but yields in poor performance in streamflow. Results suggest the need of multi-variable, simultaneous calibration schemes to reliable estimate ET and streamflow in the Júcar basin. Penman-Montheith appears to be the best performing PET formulation. Experiments 4 and 5 should reveal the benefits of separating evaporation from bare soil and transpiration in semi-arid regions using mHM. Further research in this direction is foreseen by incorporating neutron counts from Cosmic Ray Neutron Sensing technology in the calibration/validation procedure of mHM.

Crop Yield Simulations Using Multiple Regional Climate Models in the Southwestern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stack, D.; Kafatos, M.; Kim, S.; Kim, J.; Walko, R. L.

2013-12-01

Agricultural productivity (described by crop yield) is strongly dependent on climate conditions determined by meteorological parameters (e.g., temperature, rainfall, and solar radiation). California is the largest producer of agricultural products in the United States, but crops in associated arid and semi-arid regions live near their physiological limits (e.g., in hot summer conditions with little precipitation). Thus, accurate climate data are essential in assessing the impact of climate variability on agricultural productivity in the Southwestern United States and other arid regions. To address this issue, we produced simulated climate datasets and used them as input for the crop production model. For climate data, we employed two different regional climate models (WRF and OLAM) using a fine-resolution (8km) grid. Performances of the two different models are evaluated in a fine-resolution regional climate hindcast experiment for 10 years from 2001 to 2010 by comparing them to the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) dataset. Based on this comparison, multi-model ensembles with variable weighting are used to alleviate model bias and improve the accuracy of crop model productivity over large geographic regions (county and state). Finally, by using a specific crop-yield simulation model (APSIM) in conjunction with meteorological forcings from the multi-regional climate model ensemble, we demonstrate the degree to which maize yields are sensitive to the regional climate in the Southwestern United States.

Evaluation of CMAQ and CAMx Ensemble Air Quality Forecasts during the 2015 MAPS-Seoul Field Campaign

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, E.; Kim, S.; Bae, C.; Kim, H. C.; Kim, B. U.

2015-12-01

The performance of Air quality forecasts during the 2015 MAPS-Seoul Field Campaign was evaluated. An forecast system has been operated to support the campaign's daily aircraft route decisions for airborne measurements to observe long-range transporting plume. We utilized two real-time ensemble systems based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions (SMOKE)-Comprehensive Air quality Model with extensions (CAMx) modeling framework and WRF-SMOKE- Community Multi_scale Air Quality (CMAQ) framework over northeastern Asia to simulate PM10 concentrations. Global Forecast System (GFS) from National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) was used to provide meteorological inputs for the forecasts. For an additional set of retrospective simulations, ERA Interim Reanalysis from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) was also utilized to access forecast uncertainties from the meteorological data used. Model Inter-Comparison Study for Asia (MICS-Asia) and National Institute of Environment Research (NIER) Clean Air Policy Support System (CAPSS) emission inventories are used for foreign and domestic emissions, respectively. In the study, we evaluate the CMAQ and CAMx model performance during the campaign by comparing the results to the airborne and surface measurements. Contributions of foreign and domestic emissions are estimated using a brute force method. Analyses on model performance and emissions will be utilized to improve air quality forecasts for the upcoming KORUS-AQ field campaign planned in 2016.

Objective Lightning Probability Forecast Tool Phase II

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lambert, Winnie

2007-01-01

This presentation describes the improvement of a set of lightning probability forecast equations that are used by the 45th Weather Squadron forecasters for their daily 1100 UTC (0700 EDT) weather briefing during the warm season months of May-September. This information is used for general scheduling of operations at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and Kennedy Space Center. Forecasters at the Spaceflight Meteorology Group also make thunderstorm forecasts during Shuttle flight operations. Five modifications were made by the Applied Meteorology Unit: increased the period of record from 15 to 17 years, changed the method of calculating the flow regime of the day, calculated a new optimal layer relative humidity, used a new smoothing technique for the daily climatology, and used a new valid area. The test results indicated that the modified equations showed and increase in skill over the current equations, good reliability, and an ability to distinguish between lightning and non-lightning days.

Widespread tsunami-like waves of 23-27 June in the Mediterranean and Black Seas generated by high-altitude atmospheric forcing.

PubMed

Šepić, Jadranka; Vilibić, Ivica; Rabinovich, Alexander B; Monserrat, Sebastian

2015-06-29

A series of tsunami-like waves of non-seismic origin struck several southern European countries during the period of 23 to 27 June 2014. The event caused considerable damage from Spain to Ukraine. Here, we show that these waves were long-period ocean oscillations known as meteorological tsunamis which are generated by intense small-scale air pressure disturbances. An unique atmospheric synoptic pattern was tracked propagating eastward over the Mediterranean and the Black seas in synchrony with onset times of observed tsunami waves. This pattern favoured generation and propagation of atmospheric gravity waves that induced pronounced tsunami-like waves through the Proudman resonance mechanism. This is the first documented case of a chain of destructive meteorological tsunamis occurring over a distance of thousands of kilometres. Our findings further demonstrate that these events represent potentially dangerous regional phenomena and should be included in tsunami warning systems.

Widespread tsunami-like waves of 23-27 June in the Mediterranean and Black Seas generated by high-altitude atmospheric forcing

PubMed Central

Šepić, Jadranka; Vilibić, Ivica; Rabinovich, Alexander B.; Monserrat, Sebastian

2015-01-01

A series of tsunami-like waves of non-seismic origin struck several southern European countries during the period of 23 to 27 June 2014. The event caused considerable damage from Spain to Ukraine. Here, we show that these waves were long-period ocean oscillations known as meteorological tsunamis which are generated by intense small-scale air pressure disturbances. An unique atmospheric synoptic pattern was tracked propagating eastward over the Mediterranean and the Black seas in synchrony with onset times of observed tsunami waves. This pattern favoured generation and propagation of atmospheric gravity waves that induced pronounced tsunami-like waves through the Proudman resonance mechanism. This is the first documented case of a chain of destructive meteorological tsunamis occurring over a distance of thousands of kilometres. Our findings further demonstrate that these events represent potentially dangerous regional phenomena and should be included in tsunami warning systems. PMID:26119833

The Impacts of a 2-Degree Rise in Global Temperatures upon Gas-Phase Air Pollutants in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Watson, Laura; Josse, Béatrice; Marecal, Virginie; Lacressonnière, Gwendoline; Vautard, Robert; Gauss, Michael; Engardt, Magnuz; Nyiri, Agnes; Siour, Guillaume

2014-05-01

The 15th session of the Conference of Parties (COP 15) in 2009 ratified the Copenhagen Accord, which "recognises the scientific view that" global temperature rise should be held below 2 degrees C above pre-industrial levels in order to limit the impacts of climate change. Due to the fact that a 2-degree limit has been frequently referred to by policy makers in the context of the Copenhagen Accord and many other high-level policy statements, it is important that the impacts of this 2-degree increase in temperature are adequately analysed. To this end, the European Union sponsored the project IMPACT2C, which uses a multi-disciplinary international team to assess a wide variety of impacts of a 2-degree rise in global temperatures. For example, this future increase in temperature is expected to have a significant influence upon meteorological conditions such as temperature, precipitation, and wind direction and intensity; which will in turn affect the production, deposition, and distribution of air pollutants. For the first part of the air quality analysis within the IMPACT2C project, the impact of meteorological forcings on gas phase air pollutants over Europe was studied using four offline atmospheric chemistry transport models. Two sets of meteorological forcings were used for each model: reanalysis of past observation data and global climate model output. Anthropogenic emissions of ozone precursors for the year 2005 were used for all simulations in order to isolate the impact of meteorology and assess the robustness of the results across the different models. The differences between the simulations that use reanalysis of past observation data and the simulations that use global climate model output show how global climate models modify climate hindcasts by boundary conditions inputs: information that is necessary in order to interpret simulations of future climate. The baseline results were assessed by comparison with AirBase (Version 7) measurement data, and were then used as a reference for an analysis of future climate scenarios upon European air quality. The future scenarios included two types of emission data for the year 2050: one set of emission data corresponding to a current legislation scenario and another corresponding to a scenario with a maximum feasible reduction in emissions. The future scenarios were run for the time period that corresponds to a 2-degree increase in global temperatures; a time period that varies depending on which global climate model is used. In order to calculate the effect of climate change on emission reduction scenarios, the "climate penalty", the future simulations were compared to a simulation using the same future emissions but with current (2005) climate. Results show that climate change will have consequential impacts with regards to the production and geographical distribution of ozone and nitrogen oxides.

Use of the NASA GEOS-5 SEAC4RS Meteorological and Aerosol Reanalysis for assessing simulated aerosol optical properties as a function of smoke age

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Randles, C. A.; da Silva, A. M., Jr.; Colarco, P. R.; Darmenov, A.; Buchard, V.; Govindaraju, R.; Chen, G.; Hair, J. W.; Russell, P. B.; Shinozuka, Y.; Wagner, N.; Lack, D.

2014-12-01

The NASA Goddard Earth Observing System version 5 (GEOS-5) Earth system model, which includes an online aerosol module, provided chemical and weather forecasts during the SEAC4RS field campaign. For post-mission analysis, we have produced a high resolution (25 km) meteorological and aerosol reanalysis for the entire campaign period. In addition to the full meteorological observing system used for routine NWP, we assimilate 550 nm aerosol optical depth (AOD) derived from MODIS (both Aqua and Terra satellites), ground-based AERONET sun photometers, and the MISR instrument (over bright surfaces only). Daily biomass burning emissions of CO, CO2, SO2, and aerosols are derived from MODIS fire radiative power retrievals. We have also introduced novel smoke "age" tracers, which provide, for a given time, a snapshot histogram of the age of simulated smoke aerosol. Because GEOS-5 assimilates remotely sensed AOD data, it generally reproduces observed (column) AOD compared to, for example, the airborne 4-STAR instrument. Constraining AOD, however, does not imply a good representation of either the vertical profile or the aerosol microphysical properties (e.g., composition, absorption). We do find a reasonable vertical structure for aerosols is attained in the model, provided actual smoke injection heights are not much above the planetary boundary layer, as verified with observations from DIAL/HRSL aboard the DC8. The translation of the simulated aerosol microphysical properties to total column AOD, needed in the aerosol assimilation step, is based on prescribed mass extinction efficiencies that depend on wavelength, composition, and relative humidity. Here we also evaluate the performance of the simulated aerosol speciation by examining in situ retrievals of aerosol absorption/single scattering albedo and scattering growth factor (f(RH)) from the LARGE and AOP suite of instruments. Putting these comparisons in the context of smoke age as diagnosed by the model helps us to revise assumed aerosol optical properties for an improved representation of aerosol radiative forcing.

A new website with real-time dissemination of information on fire activity and meteorological fire danger in Portugal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DaCamara, Carlos; Trigo, Ricardo; Nunes, Sílvia; Pinto, Miguel; Oliveira, Tiago; Almeida, Rui

2017-04-01

In Portugal, like in Mediterranean Europe, fire activity is a natural phenomenon linking climate, humans and vegetation and is therefore conditioned by natural and anthropogenic factors. Natural factors include topography, vegetation cover and prevailing weather conditions whereas anthropogenic factors encompass land management practices and fire prevention policies. Land management practices, in particular the inadequate use of fire, is a crucial anthropogenic factor that accounts for about 90% of fire ignitions. Fire prevention policies require adequate and timely information about wildfire potential assessment, which is usually based on fire danger rating systems that provide indices to be used on an operational and tactical basis in decision support systems. We present a new website designed to provide the user community with relevant real-time information on fire activity and meteorological fire danger that will allow adopting the adequate measures to mitigate fire damage. The fire danger product consists of forecasts of fire danger over Portugal based on a statistical procedure that combines information about fire history derived from the Fire Radiative Power product disseminated by the Land Surface Analysis Satellite Application Facility (LSA SAF) with daily meteorological forecasts provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The aim of the website is fourfold; 1) to concentrate all information available (databases and maps) relevant to fire management in a unique platform so that access by end users becomes easier, faster and friendlier; 2) to supervise the access of users to the different products available; 3) to control and assist the access to the platform and obtain feedbacks from users for further improvements; 4) to outreach the operational community and foster the use of better information that increase efficiency in risk management. The website is sponsored by The Navigator Company, a leading force in the global pulp and paper market. Since the operational start of the website, the number of registered users has been steadily increasing up to a total of 300 users from a wide community that encompasses forest managers, firemen and civil protection officers, personnel from municipalities, academic researchers and private owners.

Resource Selection by the California Condor (Gymnogyps californianus) Relative to Terrestrial-Based Habitats and Meteorological Conditions

PubMed Central

Rivers, James W.; Johnson, J. Matthew; Haig, Susan M.; Schwarz, Carl J.; Glendening, John W.; Burnett, L. Joseph; George, Daniel; Grantham, Jesse

2014-01-01

Condors and vultures are distinct from most other terrestrial birds because they use extensive soaring flight for their daily movements. Therefore, assessing resource selection by these avian scavengers requires quantifying the availability of terrestrial-based habitats, as well as meteorological variables that influence atmospheric conditions necessary for soaring. In this study, we undertook the first quantitative assessment of habitat- and meteorological-based resource selection in the endangered California condor (Gymnogyps californianus) within its California range and across the annual cycle. We found that condor use of terrestrial areas did not change markedly within the annual cycle, and that condor use was greatest for habitats where food resources and potential predators could be detected and where terrain was amenable for taking off from the ground in flight (e.g., sparse habitats, coastal areas). Condors originating from different release sites differed in their use of habitat, but this was likely due in part to variation in habitats surrounding release sites. Meteorological conditions were linked to condor use of ecological subregions, with thermal height, thermal velocity, and wind speed having both positive (selection) and negative (avoidance) effects on condor use in different areas. We found little evidence of systematic effects between individual characteristics (i.e., sex, age, breeding status) or components of the species management program (i.e., release site, rearing method) relative to meteorological conditions. Our findings indicate that habitat type and meteorological conditions can interact in complex ways to influence condor resource selection across landscapes, which is noteworthy given the extent of anthropogenic stressors that may impact condor populations (e.g., lead poisoning, wind energy development). Additional studies will be valuable to assess small-scale condor movements in light of these stressors to help minimize their risk to this critically endangered species. PMID:24523893

Resource selection by the California condor (Gymnogyps californianus) relative to terrestrial-based habitats and meteorological conditions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, J. Matthew; Haig, Susan M.; Schwarz, Carl J.; Glendening, John W.; Burnett, L. Joseph; George, Daniel; Grantham, Jesse

2014-01-01

Condors and vultures are distinct from most other terrestrial birds because they use extensive soaring flight for their daily movements. Therefore, assessing resource selection by these avian scavengers requires quantifying the availability of terrestrial-based habitats, as well as meteorological variables that influence atmospheric conditions necessary for soaring. In this study, we undertook the first quantitative assessment of habitat- and meteorological-based resource selection in the endangered California condor (Gymnogyps californianus) within its California range and across the annual cycle. We found that condor use of terrestrial areas did not change markedly within the annual cycle, and that condor use was greatest for habitats where food resources and potential predators could be detected and where terrain was amenable for taking off from the ground in flight (e.g., sparse habitats, coastal areas). Condors originating from different release sites differed in their use of habitat, but this was likely due in part to variation in habitats surrounding release sites. Meteorological conditions were linked to condor use of ecological subregions, with thermal height, thermal velocity, and wind speed having both positive (selection) and negative (avoidance) effects on condor use in different areas. We found little evidence of systematic effects between individual characteristics (i.e., sex, age, breeding status) or components of the species management program (i.e., release site, rearing method) relative to meteorological conditions. Our findings indicate that habitat type and meteorological conditions can interact in complex ways to influence condor resource selection across landscapes, which is noteworthy given the extent of anthropogenic stressors that may impact condor populations (e.g., lead poisoning, wind energy development). Additional studies will be valuable to assess small-scale condor movements in light of these stressors to help minimize their risk to this critically endangered species.

Attribution of declining Western U.S. Snowpack to human effects

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pierce, D.W.; Barnett, T.P.; Hidalgo, H.G.; Das, T.; Bonfils, Celine; Santer, B.D.; Bala, G.; Dettinger, M.D.; Cayan, D.R.; Mirin, A.; Wood, A.W.; Nozawa, T.

2008-01-01

Observations show snowpack has declined across much of the western United States over the period 1950-99. This reduction has important social and economic implications, as water retained in the snowpack from winter storms forms an important part of the hydrological cycle and water supply in the region. A formal model-based detection and attribution (D-A) study of these reductions is performed. The detection variable is the ratio of 1 April snow water equivalent (SWE) to water-year-to-date precipitation (P), chosen to reduce the effect of P variability on the results. Estimates of natural internal climate variability are obtained from 1600 years of two control simulations performed with fully coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models. Estimates of the SWE/P response to anthropogenic greenhouse gases, ozone, and some aerosols are taken from multiple-member ensembles of perturbation experiments run with two models. The D-A shows the observations and anthropogenically forced models have greater SWE/P reductions than can be explained by natural internal climate variability alone. Model-estimated effects of changes in solar and volcanic forcing likewise do not explain the SWE/P reductions. The mean model estimate is that about half of the SWE/P reductions observed in the west from 1950 to 1999 are the result of climate changes forced by anthropogenic greenhouse gases, ozone, and aerosols. ?? 2008 American Meteorological Society.

KSC-08pd1080

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-29

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. – After being offloaded from the cargo plane, the shipping container holding the OSTM/Jason-2 satellite is moved away from the plane. The satellite will be taken to the Astrotech processing facility. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Steve Greenberg, JPL

Streamflow simulation for continental-scale river basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nijssen, Bart; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.; Liang, Xu; Wetzel, Suzanne W.; Wood, Eric F.

1997-04-01

A grid network version of the two-layer variable infiltration capacity (VIC-2L) macroscale hydrologic model is described. VIC-2L is a hydrologically based soil- vegetation-atmosphere transfer scheme designed to represent the land surface in numerical weather prediction and climate models. The grid network scheme allows streamflow to be predicted for large continental rivers. Off-line (observed and estimated surface meteorological and radiative forcings) applications of the model to the Columbia River (1° latitude-longitude spatial resolution) and Delaware River (0.5° resolution) are described. The model performed quite well in both applications, reproducing the seasonal hydrograph and annual flow volumes to within a few percent. Difficulties in reproducing observed streamflow in the arid portion of the Snake River basin are attributed to groundwater-surface water interactions, which are not modeled by VIC-2L.

Aircraft measurements of electrified clouds at Kennedy Space Center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jones, J. J.; Winn, W. P.; Hunyady, S. J.; Moore, C. B.; Bullock, J. W.

1990-01-01

The space-vehicle launch commit criteria for weather and atmospheric electrical conditions in us at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and Kennedy Space Center (KSC) have been made restrictive because of the past difficulties that have arisen when space vehicles have triggered lightning discharge after their launch during cloudy weather. With the present ground-base instrumentation and our limited knowledge of cloud electrification process over this region of Florida, it has not been possible to provide a quantitative index of safe launching conditions. During the fall of 1988, a Schweizer 845 airplane equipped to measure electric field and other meteorological parameters flew over KSC in a program to study clouds defined in the existing launch restriction criteria. All aspects of this program are addressed including planning, method, and results. A case study on the November 4, 1988 flight is also presented.

Machine-Learning Techniques for the Determination of Attrition of Forces Due to Atmospheric Conditions

DTIC Science & Technology

2018-02-01

the possibility of a correlation between aircraft incidents in the National Transportation Safety Board database and meteorological conditions. If a...strong correlation could be found, it could be used to derive a model to predict aircraft incidents and become part of a decision support tool for...techniques, primarily the random forest algorithm, were used to explore the possibility of a correlation between aircraft incidents in the National

Polar-Auroral Charging of the Space Shuttle and EVA (Extravehicular Activity) Astronaut

DTIC Science & Technology

1987-05-01

meteorological sacellftes confirm that charging aee occur and provIde values for the environmental parameters contributing to the chaging (1). The...Shuttla is not considered to be at risk from arc-discharge because it was desigeed to vithatand direct li4htnl.ag atrikes and has extensive redundancy...Perticina Environment Branch of the charging of the Air Force Defense maceozological sate~llte Prcgram C(’kiSP) spacecraft and thi- environmental

KSC01pp0797

NASA Image and Video Library

2001-04-12

At Astrotech, Titusville, Fla., the GOES-M (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite) satellite is tilted on a workstand so that workers can remove the rest of the protective cover. The GOES-M provides weather imagery and quantitative sounding data used to support weather forecasting, severe storm tracking and meteorological research. The satellite will undergo testing at Astrotech before its scheduled launch July 12 on an Atlas-IIA booster, Centaur upper stage from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station

Monthly average polar sea-ice concentration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schweitzer, Peter N.

1995-01-01

The data contained in this CD-ROM depict monthly averages of sea-ice concentration in the modern polar oceans. These averages were derived from the Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) and Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) instruments aboard satellites of the U.S. Air Force Defense Meteorological Satellite Program from 1978 through 1992. The data are provided as 8-bit images using the Hierarchical Data Format (HDF) developed by the National Center for Supercomputing Applications.

Evaluation of the 29-km Eta Model. Part I: Objective Verification at Three Selected Stations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Manobianco, John; Nutter, Paul

1998-01-01

A subjective evaluation of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction 29-km (meso-) eta model during the 1996 warm (May-August) and cool (October-January) seasons is described. The overall evaluation assessed the utility of the model for operational weather forecasting by the U.S. Air Force 45th Weather Squadron, National Weather Service (NWS) Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) and NWS Office in Melbourne, FL.

The temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of air pollution index and meteorological elements in Beijing, Tianjin and Shijiazhuang, China.

PubMed

Huading, Shi; Critto, Andrea; Torresan, Silvia; Qingxian, Gao

2018-06-13

With the rapid economic development and the continuous population growth, several important cities in China suffer serious air pollution, especially in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei economic developing area. Based on the daily air pollution index (API) and surface meteorological elements in Beijing, Tianjin and Shijiazhuang from 2001 to 2010, the relationships between API and meteorological elements were analyzed. The statistical analysis focused on the relationships at seasonal and monthly average scales, on different air pollution grades and air pollution processes. The results revealed that the air pollution conditions in the three areas gradually improved from 2001 to 2010, especially during summer; and the worst conditions in air quality were recorded in Beijing in spring due to the influences of dust, while in Tianjin and Shijiazhuang in winter due to household heating. Meteorological elements exhibited different influences on air pollution, showing similar relationships between API in monthly averages and four meteorological elements (i.e., the average, maximum and minimum temperatures, maximum air pressure, vapor pressure, and maximum wind speed); while the relationships on a seasonal average scale demonstrated significant differences. Compared with seasonal and monthly average scales of API, the relation coefficients based on different air pollution grades were significatively lower; while the relationship between API and meteorological elements based on air pollution process reduced the smoothing effect due to the average processing of seasonal and monthly API and improved the accuracy of the results based on different air pollution grades. Finally, statistical analysis of the distribution of pollution days in different wind directions indicated the directions of extreme and maximum wind speeds that mainly influence air pollution; representing a valuable information that could support the definition of air pollution control strategies through the identification of the regions (and the located emission sources) where to focus the implementation of emission reduction actions. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Using Remote Sensing and Radar Meteorological Data to Support Watershed Assessments Comprising Integrated Environmental Modeling

EPA Science Inventory

Meteorological (MET) data required by watershed assessments comprising Integrated Environmental Modeling (IEM) traditionally have been provided by land-based weather (gauge) stations, although these data may not be the most appropriate for adequate spatial and temporal resolution...

Hydro-meteorological drought event sets in the UK based on a large ensemble of global-regional climate simulations: climatology, drivers and changes in the future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guillod, B. P.; Massey, N.; Otto, F. E. L.; Allen, M. R.; Jones, R.; Hall, J. W.

2016-12-01

Extreme events being rare by definition, accurately quantifying the probabilities associated with a given event is difficult. This is particularly true for droughts, for which only few events are available in the observational record owing to their long-lasting characteristics. The MaRIUS project (Managing the Risks, Impacts and Uncertainties of drought and water Scarcity) aims at quantifying present and future risks associated with droughts in the UK. To do so, a large number of modelled weather time series for "synthetic" drought events are being fed into hydrological and impact models to assess their impacts on various sectors (social sciences, economy, industry, agriculture, and ecosystems). Here, we present and analyse the hydro-meteorological drought event sets that have been produced with a new version of weather@home [1] for MaRIUS. Using idle processor time on volunteers' computers around the world, we have run a very large number (10'000s) of Global Climate Model simulations, downscaled at 25km over Europe by a nested Regional Climate Model. Simulations include the past 100 years as well as two future time slices (2030s and 2080s), and provide a large number of sequences of spatio-temporally coherent weather, which are consistent with the boundary forcing such as the ocean, greenhouse gases and solar forcing. Beside presenting the methodology and validation of the event sets, we provide insights into drought risk in the UK and the drivers of drought. In particular, we examine their sensitivity to sea surface temperature and sea ice patterns, both in the recent past and for future projections. How drought risk in the UK can be expected to change in the future will also be discussed. Finally, we assess the applicability of this methodology to other regions. Reference: [1] Massey, N. et al., 2014, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc.

Continuously on-­going regional climate hindcast simulations for impact applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anders, Ivonne; Piringer, Martin; Kaufmann, Hildegard; Knauder, Werner; Resch, Gernot; Andre, Konrad

2017-04-01

Observational data for e.g. temperature, precipitation, radiation, or wind are often used as meteorological forcing for different impact models, like e.g. crop models, urban models, economic models and energy system models. To assess a climate signal, the time period covered by the observation is often too short, they have gaps in between, and are inhomogeneous over time, due to changes in the measurements itself or in the near surrounding. Thus output from global and regional climate models can close the gap and provide homogeneous and physically consistent time series of meteorological parameters. CORDEX evaluation runs performed for the IPCC-AR5 provide a good base for the regional scale. However, with respect to climate services, continuously on-going hindcast simulations are required for regularly updated applications. The Climate Research group at the national Austrian weather service, ZAMG, is focusing on high mountain regions and, especially on the Alps. The hindcast-simulation performed with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM is forced by ERAinterim and optimized for the Alpine Region. The simulation available for the period of 1979-2015 in a spatial resolution of about 10km is prolonged ongoing and fullfils the customer's needs with respect of output variables, levels, intervals and statistical measures. One of the main tasks is to capture strong precipitation events which often occur during summer when low pressure systems develop over the Golf of Genoa, moving to the Northeast. This leads to floods and landslide events in Austria, Czech Republic and Germany. Such events are not sufficiently represented in the CORDEX-evaluation runs. ZAMG use high quality gridded precipitation and temperature data for the Alpine Region (1-6km) to evaluate the model performance. Data is provided e.g. to hydrological modellers (high water, low water), but also to assess icing capability of infrastructure or the calculation the separation distances between livestock farming and residential area.

Characteristics of regional aerosols: Southern Arizona and eastern Pacific Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prabhakar, Gouri

Atmospheric aerosols impact the quality of our life in many direct and indirect ways. Inhalation of aerosols can have harmful effects on human health. Aerosols also have climatic impacts by absorbing or scattering solar radiation, or more indirectly through their interactions with clouds. Despite a better understanding of several relevant aerosol properties and processes in the past years, they remain the largest uncertainty in the estimate of global radiative forcing. The uncertainties arise because although aerosols are ubiquitous in the Earth's atmosphere they are highly variable in space, time and their physicochemical properties. This makes in-situ measurements of aerosols vital in our effort towards reducing uncertainties in the estimate of global radiative forcing due to aerosols. This study is an effort to characterize atmospheric aerosols at a regional scale, in southern Arizona and eastern Pacific Ocean, based on ground and airborne observations of aerosols. Metals and metalloids in particles with aerodynamic diameter (Dp) smaller than 2.5 μm are found to be ubiquitous in southern Arizona. The major sources of the elements considered in the study are identified to be crustal dust, smelting/mining activities and fuel combustion. The spatial and temporal variability in the mass concentrations of these elements depend both on the source strength and meteorological conditions. Aircraft measurements of aerosol and cloud properties collected during various field campaigns over the eastern Pacific Ocean are used to study the sources of nitrate in stratocumulus cloud water and the relevant processes. The major sources of nitrate in cloud water in the region are emissions from ships and wildfires. Different pathways for nitrate to enter cloud water and the role of meteorology in these processes are examined. Observations of microphysical properties of ambient aerosols in ship plumes are examined. The study shows that there is an enhancement in the number concentration of giant cloud condensation nuclei (Dp > 2 microm) in ship plumes relative to the unperturbed background regions over the ocean.

Uncertainty Evaluations of the CRCS In-orbit Field Radiometric Calibration Methods for Thermal Infrared Channels of FENGYUN Meteorological Satellites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Y.; Rong, Z.; Min, M.; Hao, X.; Yang, H.

2017-12-01

Meteorological satellites have become an irreplaceable weather and ocean-observing tool in China. These satellites are used to monitor natural disasters and improve the efficiency of many sectors of Chinese national economy. It is impossible to ignore the space-derived data in the fields of meteorology, hydrology, and agriculture, as well as disaster monitoring in China, a large agricultural country. For this reason, China is making a sustained effort to build and enhance its meteorological observing system and application system. The first Chinese polar-orbiting weather satellite was launched in 1988. Since then China has launched 14 meteorological satellites, 7 of which are sun synchronous and 7 of which are geostationary satellites; China will continue its two types of meteorological satellite programs. In order to achieve the in-orbit absolute radiometric calibration of the operational meteorological satellites' thermal infrared channels, China radiometric calibration sites (CRCS) established a set of in-orbit field absolute radiometric calibration methods (FCM) for thermal infrared channels (TIR) and the uncertainty of this method was evaluated and analyzed based on TERRA/AQUA MODIS observations. Comparisons between the MODIS at pupil brightness temperatures (BTs) and the simulated BTs at the top of atmosphere using radiative transfer model (RTM) based on field measurements showed that the accuracy of the current in-orbit field absolute radiometric calibration methods was better than 1.00K (@300K, K=1) in thermal infrared channels. Therefore, the current CRCS field calibration method for TIR channels applied to Chinese metrological satellites was with favorable calibration accuracy: for 10.5-11.5µm channel was better than 0.75K (@300K, K=1) and for 11.5-12.5µm channel was better than 0.85K (@300K, K=1).

The First Results About Earthquake Study with FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, J. Y.; Oyama, K.; Jhuang, H. K.; Istep, M.; Hsiao, C. C.; Wang, Y. H.

2007-12-01

To improve the global weather prediction and space weather monitoring, six microsatellites termed the Formosa Satellite 3 - Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC) were launched into a circular low-Earth orbit (LEO) from Vandenberg Air Force Base, California, at 0140 UTC on 15 April 2006. Each microsatellite of the joint Taiwan-US satellite constellation mission has a GPS occultation experiment (GOX) payload to operate the atmospheric and ionospheric radio occultation, a tiny ionospheric photometer (TIP) to observe the nighttime ionospheric airglow OI 135.6 nm emission, and a tri-band beacon (TBB) to tomographically estimate fine structures of ionospheric electron density on the satellite-to-receiver plane. While the GOX daily observes about 2500 vertical electron density profiles up to the satellite altitude, the TIP provides accurate horizontal gradients of nighttime electron density. In this study, anomalies in the ionospheric electron density structure and dynamics concurrently observed by FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC and co-located ground- based GPS receivers before recent large earthquakes are presented and discussed.

Assessing extreme sea levels due to tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muis, Sanne; Lin, Ning; Verlaan, Martin; Winsemius, Hessel; Vatvani, Deepak; Ward, Philip; Aerts, Jeroen

2017-04-01

Tropical cyclones (TCs), including hurricanes and typhoons, are characterised by high wind speeds and low pressure and cause dangerous storm surges in coastal areas. Over the last 50 years, storm surge incidents in the Atlantic accounted for more than 1,000 deaths in the United Stated. Recent flooding disasters, such as Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans in 2005 and, Hurricane Sandy in New York in 2012, exemplify the significant TC surge risk in the United States. In this contribution, we build on Muis et al. (2016), and present a new modelling framework to simulate TC storm surges and estimate their probabilities for the Atlantic basin. In our framework we simulate the surge levels by forcing the Global Tide and Surge Model (GTSM) with wind and pressure fields from TC events. To test the method, we apply it to historical storms that occurred between 1988 and 2015 in the Atlantic Basin. We obtain high-resolution meteorological forcing by applying a parametric hurricane model (Holland 1980; Lin and Chavas 2012) to the TC extended track data set (Demuth et al. 2006; updated), which describes the position, intensity and size of the historical TCs. Preliminary results show that this framework is capable of accurately reproducing the main surge characteristics during past events, including Sandy and Katrina. While the resolution of GTSM is limited for local areas with a complex bathymetry, the overall performance of the model is satisfactory for the basin-scale application. For an accurate assessment of risk to coastal flooding in the Atlantic basin it is essential to provide reliable estimates of surge probabilities. However, the length of observed TC tracks is too short to accurately estimate the probabilities of extreme TC events. So next steps are to statistically extend the observed record to many thousands of years (e.g., Emanuel et al. 2006), in order to force GTSM with a large number of synthetic storms. Based on these synthetic simulations, we would be able to provide reliable probabilities of surge levels for the entire Atlantic basin. References Demuth, J., DeMaria, M., and Knaff, J.A. (2006). Improvement of advanced microwave sounder unit tropical cyclone intensity and size estimation algorithms. Journal of Applied Meteorology., 45, pp. 1573-1581. Emanuel, K., Ravela, S., Vivant, E. and Risi, C. (2006). A statistical deterministic approach to hurricane risk assessment. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 87(3), pp.299-314. Holland, G.J. (1980). An analytic model of the wind and pressure profiles in hurricanes. Monthly Weather Review, 108(8), pp.1212-1218. Lin, N. and D. Chavas (2012). On hurricane parametric wind and applications in storm surge modeling. Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres. 117. doi:10.1029/2011jd017126. Muis, S., Verlaan, M., Winsemius, H. C., Aerts, J. C. J. H., & Ward, P. J. (2016). A global reanalysis of storm surge and extreme sea levels. Nature Communications, 7(7:11969), 1-11.

Evaluation of a Soil Moisture Data Assimilation System Over the Conterminous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bolten, J. D.; Crow, W. T.; Zhan, X.; Reynolds, C. A.; Jackson, T. J.

2008-12-01

A data assimilation system has been designed to integrate surface soil moisture estimates from the EOS Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E) with an online soil moisture model used by the USDA Foreign Agriculture Service for global crop estimation. USDA's International Production Assessment Division (IPAD) of the Office of Global Analysis (OGA) ingests global soil moisture within a Crop Assessment Data Retrieval and Evaluation (CADRE) Decision Support System (DSS) to provide nowcasts of crop conditions and agricultural-drought. This information is primarily used to derive mid-season crop yield estimates for the improvement of foreign market access for U.S. agricultural products. The CADRE is forced by daily meteorological observations (precipitation and temperature) provided by the Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) and World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The integration of AMSR-E observations into the two-layer soil moisture model employed by IPAD can potentially enhance the reliability of the CADRE soil moisture estimates due to AMSR-E's improved repeat time and greater spatial coverage. Assimilation of the AMSR-E soil moisture estimates is accomplished using a 1-D Ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) at daily time steps. A diagnostic calibration of the filter is performed using innovation statistics by accurately weighting the filter observation and modeling errors for three ranges of vegetation biomass density estimated using historical data from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR). Assessment of the AMSR-E assimilation has been completed for a five year duration over the conterminous United States. To evaluate the ability of the filter to compensate for incorrect precipitation forcing into the model, a data denial approach is employed by comparing soil moisture results obtained from separate model simulations forced with precipitation products of varying uncertainty. An analysis of surface and root-zone anomalies is presented for each model simulation over the conterminous United States, as well as statistical assessments for each simulation over various land cover types.

Identifying Meteorological Controls on Open and Closed Mesoscale Cellular Convection Associated with Marine Cold Air Outbreaks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCoy, Isabel L.; Wood, Robert; Fletcher, Jennifer K.

2017-11-01

Mesoscale cellular convective (MCC) clouds occur in large-scale patterns over the ocean and have important radiative effects on the climate system. An examination of time-varying meteorological conditions associated with satellite-observed open and closed MCC clouds is conducted to illustrate the influence of large-scale meteorological conditions. Marine cold air outbreaks (MCAO) influence the development of open MCC clouds and the transition from closed to open MCC clouds. MCC neural network classifications on Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data for 2008 are collocated with Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) data and ERA-Interim reanalysis to determine the radiative effects of MCC clouds and their thermodynamic environments. Closed MCC clouds are found to have much higher albedo on average than open MCC clouds for the same cloud fraction. Three meteorological control metrics are tested: sea-air temperature difference (ΔT), estimated inversion strength (EIS), and a MCAO index (M). These predictive metrics illustrate the importance of atmospheric surface forcing and static stability for open and closed MCC cloud formation. Predictive sigmoidal relations are found between M and MCC cloud frequency globally and regionally: negative for closed MCC cloud and positive for open MCC cloud. The open MCC cloud seasonal cycle is well correlated with M, while the seasonality of closed MCC clouds is well correlated with M in the midlatitudes and EIS in the tropics and subtropics. M is found to best distinguish open and closed MCC clouds on average over shorter time scales. The possibility of a MCC cloud feedback is discussed.

Dynamic Evaluation of Two Decades of CMAQ Simulations ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This presentation focuses on the dynamic evaluation of the CMAQ model over the continental United States using multi-decadal simulations for the period from 1990 to 2010 to examine how well the changes in observed ozone air quality induced by variations in meteorology and/or emissions are simulated by the model. We applied spectral decomposition of the ozone time-series using the KZ filter to assess the variations in the strengths of synoptic (weather-induced variations) and baseline (long-term variation) forcings, embedded in the simulated and observed concentrations. The results reveal that CMAQ captured the year-to-year variability (more so in the later years than the earlier years) and the synoptic forcing in accordance with what the observations are showing. The National Exposure Research Laboratory (NERL) Computational Exposure Division (CED) develops and evaluates data, decision-support tools, and models to be applied to media-specific or receptor-specific problem areas. CED uses modeling-based approaches to characterize exposures, evaluate fate and transport, and support environmental diagnostics/forensics with input from multiple data sources. It also develops media- and receptor-specific models, process models, and decision support tools for use both within and outside of EPA.

An Objective Verification of the North American Mesoscale Model for Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bauman, William H., III

2010-01-01

The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) Launch Weather Officers (LWO's) use the 12-km resolution North American Mesoscale (NAM) model (MesoNAM) text and graphical product forecasts extensively to support launch weather operations. However, the actual performance of the model at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) has not been measured objectively. In order to have tangible evidence of model performance, the 45 WS tasked the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU; Bauman et ai, 2004) to conduct a detailed statistical analysis of model output compared to observed values. The model products are provided to the 45 WS by ACTA, Inc. and include hourly forecasts from 0 to 84 hours based on model initialization times of 00, 06, 12 and 18 UTC. The objective analysis compared the MesoNAM forecast winds, temperature (T) and dew pOint (T d), as well as the changes in these parameters over time, to the observed values from the sensors in the KSC/CCAFS wind tower network shown in Table 1. These objective statistics give the forecasters knowledge of the model's strengths and weaknesses, which will result in improved forecasts for operations.

Intraformation positioning system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheldon, Stuart; Zadzora, Timothy

1996-05-01

The IntraFormation Positioning System is a networked relative navigation system currently being developed for rendezvous, join-up, and formation flight of Air Force helicopters and fixed wing aircraft in instrument meteorological conditions. The system is designed to be integrated into existing aircraft and will display relative positions of all aircraft within a formation, as well as the relative positions of other formations participating in coordinated missions. The system uses a Global Positioning System receiver integrated with the aircraft Inertial Navigation System to generate accurate aircraft position and velocity data. These data are transmitted over a data link to all participating aircraft and displayed as graphic symbols at the relative range and bearing to own aircraft on a situational awareness display format similar to a radar plan position indicator. Flight guidance computation is based on the difference between a desired formation slot position and current aircraft position relative to the formation lead aircraft. This information is presented on the flight director display allowing the pilot to null out position errors. The system is being developed for the Air Force Special Operations Command; however, it is applicable to all aircraft desiring improved formation situational awareness and formation flight coordination.

Alternative Approaches to Land Initialization for Seasonal Precipitation and Temperature Forecasts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koster, Randal; Suarez, Max; Liu, Ping; Jambor, Urszula

2004-01-01

The seasonal prediction system of the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office is used to generate ensembles of summer forecasts utilizing realistic soil moisture initialization. To derive the realistic land states, we drive offline the system's land model with realistic meteorological forcing over the period 1979-1993 (in cooperation with the Global Land Data Assimilation System project at GSFC) and then extract the state variables' values on the chosen forecast start dates. A parallel series of forecast ensembles is performed with a random (though climatologically consistent) set of land initial conditions; by comparing the two sets of ensembles, we can isolate the impact of land initialization on forecast skill from that of the imposed SSTs. The base initialization experiment is supplemented with several forecast ensembles that use alternative initialization techniques. One ensemble addresses the impact of minimizing climate drift in the system through the scaling of the initial conditions, and another is designed to isolate the importance of the precipitation signal from that of all other signals in the antecedent offline forcing. A third ensemble includes a more realistic initialization of the atmosphere along with the land initialization. The impact of each variation on forecast skill is quantified.

High-resolution numerical modelling of the barotropic tides in the Gulf of Gabes, eastern Mediterranean Sea (Tunisia)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Othmani, Achref; Béjaoui, Béchir; Chevalier, Cristèle; Elhmaidi, Dalila; Devenon, Jean-Luc; Aleya, Lotfi

2017-05-01

A high-resolution 2D barotropic tidal model was developed for the Gulf of Gabes and used to characterise hydrodynamic processes and tidal dynamics. The model is based on the Regional Ocean Modelling System. It is forced at the open boundaries by the semidiurnal M2 and S2 astronomical components while meteorological forcing has been neglected. The model results show good agreement with observations confirming that it reproduces the gulf's main tidal characteristics reasonably well. In fact, the simulated semidiurnal tidal components M2 and S2 generate important sea level variations and coastal currents. Tidal propagation is directed to the gulf's western sector while tidal resonance occurs in its inner sector where the M2 and S2 amplitudes are about 50 and 36 cm, respectively. Phase maxima (170°-185°) are located inside Boughrara Lagoon for both the simulated M2 and S2 tides. The strongest currents are found in shallow coastal regions and at the lagoon's western inlet. During spring tides, currents are around 10-20 cm s-1 in the gulf center and up to 50 cm s-1 inside the lagoon.

Relationship research between meteorological disasters and stock markets based on a multifractal detrending moving average algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Qingchen; Cao, Guangxi; Xu, Wei

2018-01-01

Based on a multifractal detrending moving average algorithm (MFDMA), this study uses the fractionally autoregressive integrated moving average process (ARFIMA) to demonstrate the effectiveness of MFDMA in the detection of auto-correlation at different sample lengths and to simulate some artificial time series with the same length as the actual sample interval. We analyze the effect of predictable and unpredictable meteorological disasters on the US and Chinese stock markets and the degree of long memory in different sectors. Furthermore, we conduct a preliminary investigation to determine whether the fluctuations of financial markets caused by meteorological disasters are derived from the normal evolution of the financial system itself or not. We also propose several reasonable recommendations.

Hanford meteorological station computer codes: Volume 9, The quality assurance computer codes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Burk, K.W.; Andrews, G.L.

1989-02-01

The Hanford Meteorological Station (HMS) was established in 1944 on the Hanford Site to collect and archive meteorological data and provide weather forecasts and related services for Hanford Site approximately 1/2 mile east of the 200 West Area and is operated by PNL for the US Department of Energy. Meteorological data are collected from various sensors and equipment located on and off the Hanford Site. These data are stored in data bases on the Digital Equipment Corporation (DEC) VAX 11/750 at the HMS (hereafter referred to as the HMS computer). Files from those data bases are routinely transferred to themore » Emergency Management System (EMS) computer at the Unified Dose Assessment Center (UDAC). To ensure the quality and integrity of the HMS data, a set of Quality Assurance (QA) computer codes has been written. The codes will be routinely used by the HMS system manager or the data base custodian. The QA codes provide detailed output files that will be used in correcting erroneous data. The following sections in this volume describe the implementation and operation of QA computer codes. The appendices contain detailed descriptions, flow charts, and source code listings of each computer code. 2 refs.« less

Testing the use of standardised indices and GRACE satellite data to estimate the European 2015 groundwater drought in near-real time

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Loon, Anne F.; Kumar, Rohini; Mishra, Vimal

2017-04-01

In 2015, central and eastern Europe were affected by a severe drought. This event has recently been studied from meteorological and streamflow perspective, but no analysis of the groundwater situation has been performed. One of the reasons is that real-time groundwater level observations often are not available. In this study, we evaluate two alternative approaches to quantify the 2015 groundwater drought over two regions in southern Germany and eastern Netherlands. The first approach is based on spatially explicit relationships between meteorological conditions and historic groundwater level observations. The second approach uses the Gravity Recovery Climate Experiment (GRACE) terrestrial water storage (TWS) and groundwater anomalies derived from GRACE-TWS and (near-)surface storage simulations by the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) models. We combined the monthly groundwater observations from 2040 wells to establish the spatially varying optimal accumulation period between the Standardised Groundwater Index (SGI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) at a 0.25° gridded scale. The resulting optimal accumulation periods range between 1 and more than 24 months, indicating strong spatial differences in groundwater response time to meteorological input over the region. Based on the estimated optimal accumulation periods and available meteorological time series, we reconstructed the groundwater anomalies up to 2015 and found that in Germany a uniform severe groundwater drought persisted for several months during this year, whereas the Netherlands appeared to have relatively high groundwater levels. The differences between this event and the 2003 European benchmark drought are striking. The 2003 groundwater drought was less uniformly pronounced, both in the Netherlands and Germany. This is because slowly responding wells (the ones with optimal accumulation periods of more than 12 months) still were above average from the wet year of 2002, which experienced severe flooding in central Europe. GRACE-TWS and GRACE-based groundwater anomalies did not capture the spatial variability of the 2003 and 2015 drought events satisfactorily. GRACE-TWS did show that both 2003 and 2015 were relatively dry, but the differences between Germany and the Netherlands in 2015 and the spatially variable groundwater drought pattern in 2003 were not captured. This could be associated with the coarse spatial scale of GRACE. The simulated groundwater anomalies based on GRACE-TWS deviated considerably from the GRACE-TWS signal and from observed groundwater anomalies. The uncertainty in the GRACE-based groundwater anomalies mainly results from uncertainties in the simulation of soil moisture by the different GLDAS models. The GRACE-based groundwater anomalies are therefore not suitable for use in real-time groundwater drought monitoring in our case study regions. The alternative approach based on the spatially variable relationship between meteorological conditions and groundwater levels is more suitable to quantify groundwater drought in near real-time. Compared to the meteorological drought and streamflow drought (described in previous studies), the groundwater drought of 2015 had a more pronounced spatial variability in its response to meteorological conditions, with some areas primarily influenced by short-term meteorological deficits and others influenced by meteorological deficits accumulated over the preceding 2 years or more. In drought management, this information is very useful and our approach to quantify groundwater drought can be used until real-time groundwater observations become readily available.

Availability of selected meteorological data in computer-based files of the U.S. Geological Survey, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming

USGS Publications Warehouse

Link, Brenda L.; Cary, L.E.

1986-01-01

Meteorological data were located, acquired, and stored from selected stations in Montana and North Dakota coal regions and adjacent areas including South Dakota and Wyoming. Data that were acquired have potential use in small watershed modeling studies. Emphasis was placed on acquiring data that was collected during the period 1970 to the present (1984). A map shows the location and type of stations selected. A narration summarizing conventions used in acquiring and storing the meteorological data is provided along with the various retrieval options available. Individual station descriptions are followed by tables listing the meteorological variables collected, period of obtained record, percentage of data recovery, and the instruments used and their description. (USGS)

Statistical Short-Range Guidance for Peak Wind Speed Forecasts on Kennedy Space Center/Cape Canaveral Air Force Station: Phase I Results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lambert, Winifred C.; Merceret, Francis J. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

This report describes the results of the ANU's (Applied Meteorology Unit) Short-Range Statistical Forecasting task for peak winds. The peak wind speeds are an important forecast element for the Space Shuttle and Expendable Launch Vehicle programs. The Keith Weather Squadron and the Spaceflight Meteorology Group indicate that peak winds are challenging to forecast. The Applied Meteorology Unit was tasked to develop tools that aid in short-range forecasts of peak winds at tower sites of operational interest. A 7 year record of wind tower data was used in the analysis. Hourly and directional climatologies by tower and month were developed to determine the seasonal behavior of the average and peak winds. In all climatologies, the average and peak wind speeds were highly variable in time. This indicated that the development of a peak wind forecasting tool would be difficult. Probability density functions (PDF) of peak wind speed were calculated to determine the distribution of peak speed with average speed. These provide forecasters with a means of determining the probability of meeting or exceeding a certain peak wind given an observed or forecast average speed. The climatologies and PDFs provide tools with which to make peak wind forecasts that are critical to safe operations.

Tonopah Test Range Air Monitoring: CY2015 Meteorological, Radiological, and Airborne Particulate Observations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nikolich, George; Shadel, Craig; Chapman, Jenny

2016-09-01

In 1963, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) (formerly the Atomic Energy Commission [AEC]), implemented Operation Roller Coaster on the Tonopah Test Range (TTR) and an adjacent area of the Nevada Test and Training Range (NTTR) (formerly the Nellis Air Force Range). The operation resulted in radionuclide-contaminated soils at the Clean Slate I, II, and III sites. This report documents observations made during ongoing monitoring of radiological, meteorological, and dust conditions at stations installed adjacent to Clean Slate I and Clean Slate III, and at the TTR Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) Range Operations Control (ROC) center. The primary objective ofmore » the monitoring effort is to determine if winds blowing across the Clean Slate sites are transporting particles of radionuclide-contaminated soil beyond the physical and administrative boundaries of the sites. Radionuclide assessment of airborne particulates in 2015 found the gross alpha and gross beta values of dust collected from the filters at the monitoring stations are consistent with background conditions. The meteorological and particle monitoring indicate that conditions for wind-borne contaminant movement exist at the Clean Slate sites and that, although the transport of radionuclide-contaminated soil by suspension has not been detected, movement by saltation is occurring.« less

The Greenland Sea Odden: Intra- and inter-annual variability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Russell, C.A.; Fischer, K.W.; Shuchman, R.A.; Josberger, E.G.

1997-01-01

The "Odden" is a large sea ice feature that forms in the East Greenland Sea which generally forms at the beginning of the winter season and can cover 300,000 km2. Throughout the winter, the outer edge of the Odden may advance and retreat by several hundred kilometers on time scales of a few days to weeks. Satellite passive microwave observations from 1978 through 1995 provide a continuous record of the spatial and temporal variations of this extremely dynamic phenomenon. The 17 year record shows both strong inter- and intra-annual variations in Odden extent and temporal behavior. An analysis of the satellite passive microwave derived ice area and extent time series along with meteorological data from the Arctic Drifting Buoy Network determined the meteorological forcing required for Odden growth, maintenance and decay. The key meteorological parameters which cause the rapid ice formation and decay associated with the Odden are, in order of importance, air temperature, wind speed, and wind direction. Atmospheric pressure was found not to play a significant role in the Odden events. Air temperature and wind direction are the dominant variables with temperatures below -9.5??C and winds from the west required to trigger significant Odden ice formation events. ??2004 Copyright SPIE - The International Society for Optical Engineering.

Can Atmospheric Reanalysis Data Sets Be Used to Reproduce Flooding Over Large Scales?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andreadis, Konstantinos M.; Schumann, Guy J.-P.; Stampoulis, Dimitrios; Bates, Paul D.; Brakenridge, G. Robert; Kettner, Albert J.

2017-10-01

Floods are costly to global economies and can be exceptionally lethal. The ability to produce consistent flood hazard maps over large areas could provide a significant contribution to reducing such losses, as the lack of knowledge concerning flood risk is a major factor in the transformation of river floods into flood disasters. In order to accurately reproduce flooding in river channels and floodplains, high spatial resolution hydrodynamic models are needed. Despite being computationally expensive, recent advances have made their continental to global implementation feasible, although inputs for long-term simulations may require the use of reanalysis meteorological products especially in data-poor regions. We employ a coupled hydrologic/hydrodynamic model cascade forced by the 20CRv2 reanalysis data set and evaluate its ability to reproduce flood inundation area and volume for Australia during the 1973-2012 period. Ensemble simulations using the reanalysis data were performed to account for uncertainty in the meteorology and compared with a validated benchmark simulation. Results show that the reanalysis ensemble capture the inundated areas and volumes relatively well, with correlations for the ensemble mean of 0.82 and 0.85 for area and volume, respectively, although the meteorological ensemble spread propagates in large uncertainty of the simulated flood characteristics.

The climate impacts of absorbing aerosols on and within the Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rasch, P.; Wang, H.; Ma, P.; Fast, J. D.; Wang, M.; Easter, R. C.; Liu, X.; Qian, Y.; Flanner, M. G.; Ghan, S.; Singh, B.

2011-12-01

Absorbing aerosols are receiving increasing attention as forcing agents in the climate system. By scattering and absorbing light they can reduce planetary albedo, particularly over bright surfaces (clouds, snow and ice). They also act as cloud condensation and/or ice nuclei, influencing the brightness, lifetime and precipitation properties of clouds. Atmospheric stability and primary circulation features respond to the changing vertical and horizontal patterns of heating, cooling, and surface fluxes produced by the aerosols, clouds and surface properties. These changes in meteorology have further impacts on aerosols and clouds producing a complex interplay between transport, forcings, and feedbacks involving absorbing aerosols and climate. The complexity of the processes and the interactions between them make it very challenging to represent aerosols realistically in large scale (global and regional) climate models. Simulations of important features of aerosols still contain easily identifiable biases. I will describe our efforts to identify the processes responsible for some of those biases and the deficiencies in model formulations that impede progress in treating aerosols and understanding their role in polar climate. I plan to summarize some studies performed with the NCAR CESM (global) and WRF-Chem (regional) Community models that examine the simulation sensitivity to treatments of physics, chemistry, and meteorology. Some of these simulations were allowed to evolve freely; others were strongly constrained to agree with observed meteorological fields. We have also altered the formulation of a number of the processes in the model to improve fidelity in the aerosol distributions. The parameterizations used in our global model have also been transferred to the regional model, allowing comparisons to be made between the simpler formulations used in the global model with more elaborate and costly formulations available in the regional model. The regional model can be run at higher resolution in order to explore the resolution dependence of the parameterizations and make comparisons to field experiments more straightforward. Aerosols sources have also been tagged by sector and geographic region to help in attribution and interpretation. The many variations mentioned here help in understanding how aerosols reach the arctic and how they produce changes in radiative forcing and Arctic climate. I will provide a brief overview of these studies, with more detail available in presentations submitted to this session and elsewhere.

Sensitivity of monthly streamflow forecasts to the quality of rainfall forcing: When do dynamical climate forecasts outperform the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) method?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanguy, M.; Prudhomme, C.; Harrigan, S.; Smith, K. A.; Parry, S.

2017-12-01

Forecasting hydrological extremes is challenging, especially at lead times over 1 month for catchments with limited hydrological memory and variable climates. One simple way to derive monthly or seasonal hydrological forecasts is to use historical climate data to drive hydrological models using the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) method. This gives a range of possible future streamflow given known initial hydrologic conditions alone. The degree of skill of ESP depends highly on the forecast initialisation month and catchment type. Using dynamic rainfall forecasts as driving data instead of historical data could potentially improve streamflow predictions. A lot of effort is being invested within the meteorological community to improve these forecasts. However, while recent progress shows promise (e.g. NAO in winter), the skill of these forecasts at monthly to seasonal timescales is generally still limited, and the extent to which they might lead to improved hydrological forecasts is an area of active research. Additionally, these meteorological forecasts are currently being produced at 1 month or seasonal time-steps in the UK, whereas hydrological models require forcings at daily or sub-daily time-steps. Keeping in mind these limitations of available rainfall forecasts, the objectives of this study are to find out (i) how accurate monthly dynamical rainfall forecasts need to be to outperform ESP, and (ii) how the method used to disaggregate monthly rainfall forecasts into daily rainfall time series affects results. For the first objective, synthetic rainfall time series were created by increasingly degrading observed data (proxy for a `perfect forecast') from 0 % to +/-50 % error. For the second objective, three different methods were used to disaggregate monthly rainfall data into daily time series. These were used to force a simple lumped hydrological model (GR4J) to generate streamflow predictions at a one-month lead time for over 300 catchments representative of the range of UK's hydro-climatic conditions. These forecasts were then benchmarked against the traditional ESP method. It is hoped that the results of this work will help the meteorological community to identify where to focus their efforts in order to increase the usefulness of their forecasts within hydrological forecasting systems.