Using a Budyko Derived Index to Evaluate the Internal Hydrological Variability of Catchments in Complex Terrain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dominguez, M.

2017-12-01

Headwater catchments in complex terrain typically exhibit significant variations in microclimatic conditions across slopes. This microclimatic variability in turn, modifies land surface properties presumably altering the hydrologic dynamics of these catchments. The extent to which differences in microclimate and land cover dictate the partition of water and energy fluxes within a catchment is still poorly understood. In this study, we attempt to do an assessment of the effects of aspect, elevation and latitude (which are the principal factors that define microclimate conditions) on the hydrologic behavior of the hillslopes within catchments with complex terrain. Using a distributed hydrologic model on a number of catchments at different latitudes, where data is available for calibration and validation, we estimate the different components of the water balance to obtain the aridity index (AI = PET/P) and the evaporative index (EI = AET/P) of each slope for a number of years. We use Budyko's curve as a framework to characterize the inter-annual variability in the hydrologic response of the hillslopes in the studied catchments, developing a hydrologic sensitivity index (HSi) based on the relative change in Budyko's curve components (HSi=ΔAI/ΔEI). With this method, when the HSi values of a given hillslope are larger than 1 the hydrologic behavior of that part of the catchment is considered sensitive to changes in climatic conditions, while values approaching 0 would indicate the opposite. We use this approach as a diagnostic tool to discern the effect of aspect, elevation, and latitude on the hydrologic regime of the slopes in complex terrain catchments and to try to explain observed patterns of land cover conditions on these types of catchments.

Spatiotemporal analysis of air conditions as a tool for the environmental management of a show cave (Cueva del Agua, Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernandez-Cortes, A.; Calaforra, J. M.; Sanchez-Martos, F.

We recorded the air temperature and carbon dioxide concentration within the Cueva del Agua, a cave in Spain, under natural conditions prior to the cave being opened to tourists. Geostatistical tools are useful techniques for characterizing microclimate parameters with the aim of adopting measures to ensure the conservation and sound environmental management of tourist caves. We modelled the spatial distribution of these microclimatic parameters over an annual cycle using iterative residual kriging, revealing the stratification of air related to the cave's topography. Replenishment of the cave air is activated by convective circulation that accompanies the development of inversions in the thermal gradient of the air. Comparison of the spatial distribution of each microclimatic parameter over time enables us to characterize the exchange of air between the cave interior and the outside, as well as identify potential areas that could be opened to tourists and determine suitable visiting schedules.

Variations on seepage water geochemistry induced by natural and anthropogenic microclimatic changes: Implications for the speleothems growth conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernandez-Cortes, A.; Sanchez-Moral, S.; Canaveras, J. C.; Cuevas, J.; Cuezva, S.; Andreu, J. M.; Abella, R.

2009-04-01

During an annual cycle the effect of microclimatic changes (natural and anthropogenic origin) on the geochemical characteristics of seepage water and mineral precipitation rates was analyzed, for two karstic caves under opposing environmental stability and energy exchange with exterior. On the one hand Castañar cave (Caceres, Spain), an extremely controlled show cave with limited visitation showing a minimum exchange rate of energy with the outer atmosphere and, secondly, Canelobre cave (Alicante, Spain), a widely visited cave where the anthropogenic impact generates both high-speed and high-energy environmental changes. Microclimatic variations play a key role in CO2-dessgasing caused by the imbalance of pCO2 between the karstic water and the cave air, favoring the slow processes of mineral precipitation. Thus, a pCO2-range of seepage water have been detected for each cave (from 10-2.30/-2.35 to 10-2.47/-2.52 bar for Castañar cave, and from 10-2.8/-2.85 to 10-2.95/-3.0 bar for Canelobre cave) where the mineral oversaturation prevails, determining the type and rate of mineral precipitation in each cave. Finally, it analyzes how the changes on the oversaturation/ precipitation states are controlled by microclimatic variations, such as: 1) natural underground air renewal through the porous system of upper soil and the network of host-rock fissures (isolating membranes), or else through the cave entrance, 2) cumulative disruptions in the pCO2 levels of cave air due to the presence of visitors, and 3) forced ventilation of the subterranean atmosphere due to the uncontrolled opening of cave entrances. The obtained results reinforce the significance of the microclimatic fluctuations on short time scales in the dynamic and evolution of the subterranean karst system, in terms of rates of mineral precipitation and growth of speleothems. Likewise the interpretations are useful in order to ensure the constant climate required for the conservation of caves.

A case for using Plethodontid salamanders for monitoring biodiversity and ecosystem integrity of North American forests

USGS Publications Warehouse

Welsh, H.H.; Droege, S.

2001-01-01

Terrestrial salamanders of the family P!ethodontidae have unique attributes that make them excellent indicators of biodiversity and ecosystem integrity in forested habitats. Their longevity, small territory size, site fidelity, sensitivity to natural and anthropogenic perturbations, tendency to occur in high densities, and low sampling costs mean that counts of plethodontid salamanders provide numerous advantages over counts of other North American forest organisms for indicating environmental change. Furthermore, they are tightly linked physiologically to microclimatic and successional processes that influence the distribution and abundance of numerous other hydrophilic but difficult-to-study forest-dwelling plants and animals. Ecosystem processes such as moisture cycling, food-web dynamics, and succession, with their related structural and microclimatic variability, all affect forest biodiversity and have been shown to affect salamander populations as well. We determined the variability associated with sampling for plethodontid salamanders by estimating the coefficient of variation (CV) from available time-series data. The median coefficient of variation indicated that variation in counts of individuals among studies was much lower in plethodonticis (27%) than in lepidoptera (93%), passerine birds (57%), small mammals (69%), or other amphibians (37-46%), which means plethodontid salamanders provide an important statistical advantage over other species for monitoring long-term forest health.

Variations in household microclimate affect outdoor-biting behaviour of malaria vectors

PubMed Central

Ngowo, Halfan S.; Kaindoa, Emmanuel Wilson; Matthiopoulos, Jason; Ferguson, Heather M.; Okumu, Fredros O.

2017-01-01

Background: Mosquito behaviours including the degree to which they bite inside houses or outside is a crucial determinant of human exposure to malaria. Whilst seasonality in mosquito vector abundance is well documented, much less is known about the impact of climate on mosquito behaviour. We investigated how variations in household microclimate affect outdoor-biting by malaria vectors, Anopheles arabiensis and Anopheles funestus. Methods: Mosquitoes were sampled indoors and outdoors weekly using human landing catches at eight households in four villages in south-eastern Tanzania, resulting in 616 trap-nights over 12 months. Daily temperature, relative humidity and rainfall were recorded. Generalized additive mixed models (GAMMs) were used to test associations between mosquito abundance and the microclimatic conditions. Generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) were used to investigate the influence of microclimatic conditions on the tendency of vectors to bite outdoors (proportion of outdoor biting). Results:  An. arabiensis abundance peaked during high rainfall months (February-May), whilst An. funestus density remained stable into the dry season (May-August) . Across the range of observed household temperatures, a rise of 1 ºC marginally increased nightly An. arabiensis abundance (~11%), but more prominently increased An. funestus abundance (~66%). The abundance of An. arabiensis and An. funestus showed strong positive associations with time-lagged rainfall (2-3 and 3-4 weeks before sampling). The degree of outdoor biting in An. arabiensis was significantly associated with the relative temperature difference between indoor and outdoor environments, with exophily increasing as temperature inside houses became relatively warmer. The exophily of An. funestus did not vary with temperature differences.   Conclusions: This study demonstrates that malaria vector An. arabiensis shifts the location of its biting from indoors to outdoors in association with relative differences in microclimatic conditions. These environmental impacts could give rise to seasonal variation in mosquito biting behaviour and degree of protection provided by indoor-based vector control strategies. PMID:29552642

Adverse moisture events predict seasonal abundance of Lyme disease vector ticks (Ixodes scapularis)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Berger, Kathryn A.; Ginsberg, Howard S.; Dugas, Katherine D.; Hamel, Lutz H.; Mather, Thomas N.

2014-01-01

Background: Lyme borreliosis (LB) is the most commonly reported vector-borne disease in north temperate regions worldwide, affecting an estimated 300,000 people annually in the United States alone. The incidence of LB is correlated with human exposure to its vector, the blacklegged tick (Ixodes scapularis). To date, attempts to model tick encounter risk based on environmental parameters have been equivocal. Previous studies have not considered (1) the differences between relative humidity (RH) in leaf litter and at weather stations, (2) the RH threshold that affects nymphal blacklegged tick survival, and (3) the time required below the threshold to induce mortality. We clarify the association between environmental moisture and tick survival by presenting a significant relationship between the total number of tick adverse moisture events (TAMEs - calculated as microclimatic periods below a RH threshold) and tick abundance each year.Methods: We used a 14-year continuous statewide tick surveillance database and corresponding weather data from Rhode Island (RI), USA, to assess the effects of TAMEs on nymphal populations of I. scapularis. These TAMEs were defined as extended periods of time (>8 h below 82% RH in leaf litter). We fit a sigmoid curve comparing weather station data to those collected by loggers placed in tick habitats to estimate RH experienced by nymphal ticks, and compiled the number of historical TAMEs during the 14-year record.Results: The total number of TAMEs in June of each year was negatively related to total seasonal nymphal tick densities, suggesting that sub-threshold humidity episodes >8 h in duration naturally lowered nymphal blacklegged tick abundance. Furthermore, TAMEs were positively related to the ratio of tick abundance early in the season when compared to late season, suggesting that lower than average tick abundance for a given year resulted from tick mortality and not from other factors.Conclusions: Our results clarify the mechanism by which environmental moisture affects blacklegged tick populations, and offers the possibility to more accurately predict tick abundance and human LB incidence. We describe a method to forecast LB risk in endemic regions and identify the predictive role of microclimatic moisture conditions on tick encounter risk.

Mapping Topoclimate and Microclimate in the Monarch Butterfly Biosphere Reserve, Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weiss, S. B.

2006-12-01

Overwintering monarch butterflies in Mexico select areas of the high elevation Oyamel fir -pine forest providing a canopy that protects them from extremes of cold, heat, sun, and wind. These exacting microclimatic conditions are found in relatively small areas of forest with appropriate topography and canopy cover. The major goal of this investigation is to map topoclimatic and microclimatic conditions within the Monarch Butterfly Biosphere Reserve by combining temperature monitoring (iButton Thermochrons), hemispherical canopy photography, multiple regression, and GIS modeling. Temperature measurements included base weather stations and arrays of Thermochrons (on the north-side of trees at 2m height) across local topographic and canopy cover gradients. Topoclimatic models of minimum temperatures included topographic position, slope, and elevation, and predicted that thermal belts on slopes and cold air drainage into canyons create local minimum temperature gradients of 2°C. Topoclimatic models of maximum temperatures models included elevation, topographic position, and relative solar exposure, with local gradients of 3°C. These models, which are independent of forest canopy structure, were then projected across the entire region. Forest canopy structure, including direct and diffuse solar radiation, was assessed with hemispherical photography at each Thermochron site. Canopy cover affected minimum temperatures primarily on the calmest, coldest nights. Maximum temperatures were predicted by direct radiation below the canopy. Fine- scale grids (25 m spacing) at three overwintering sites characterized effects of canopy gaps and edges on temperature and wind exposure. The effects of temperature variation were considered for lipid loss rates, ability to take flight, and freezing mortality. Lipid loss rates were estimated by measured hourly temperatures. Many of the closed canopy sites allowed for substantial lipid reserves at the end of the season (March 15), but increases in average temperature could effectively deplete lipids by that time. The large influence of canopy cover on daytime maximum temperatures demonstrates that forest thinning directly reduces habitat suitability. Monarchs' flight behavior under warmer conditions suggests that daytime temperatures drive the dynamics of monarch distribution within colonies. Thinning also decreases nighttime minimum temperatures, and increases wind exposure. These results create a basis for quantitative understanding of the combinations of topography and forest structure that provide high quality overwintering habitat.

Microclimate and limits to photosynthesis in a diverse community of hypolithic cyanobacteria in northern Australia.

PubMed

Tracy, Christopher R; Streten-Joyce, Claire; Dalton, Robert; Nussear, Kenneth E; Gibb, Karen S; Christian, Keith A

2010-03-01

Hypolithic microbes, primarily cyanobacteria, inhabit the highly specialized microhabitats under translucent rocks in extreme environments. Here we report findings from hypolithic cyanobacteria found under three types of translucent rocks (quartz, prehnite, agate) in a semiarid region of tropical Australia. We investigated the photosynthetic responses of the cyanobacterial communities to light, temperature and moisture in the laboratory, and we measured the microclimatic variables of temperature and soil moisture under rocks in the field over an annual cycle. We also used molecular techniques to explore the diversity of hypolithic cyanobacteria in this community and their phylogenetic relationships within the context of hypolithic cyanobacteria from other continents. Based on the laboratory experiments, photosynthetic activity required a minimum soil moisture of 15% (by mass). Peak photosynthetic activity occurred between approximately 8 degrees C and 42 degrees C, though some photosynthesis occurred between -1 degrees C and 51 degrees C. Maximum photosynthesis rates also occurred at light levels of approximately 150-550 micromol m(-2) s(-1). We used the field microclimatic data in conjunction with these measurements of photosynthetic efficiency to estimate the amount of time the hypolithic cyanobacteria could be photosynthetically active in the field. Based on these data, we estimated that conditions were appropriate for photosynthetic activity for approximately 942 h (approximately 75 days) during the year. The hypolithic cyanobacteria community under quartz, prehnite and agate rocks was quite diverse both within and between rock types. We identified 115 operational taxonomic units (OTUs), with each rock hosting 8-24 OTUs. A third of the cyanobacteria OTUs from northern Australia grouped with Chroococcidiopsis, a genus that has been identified from hypolithic and endolithic communities from the Gobi, Mojave, Atacama and Antarctic deserts. Several OTUs identified from northern Australia have not been reported to be associated with hypolithic communities previously.

Effects of microclimatic variables on the symptoms and signs onset of Moniliophthora roreri, causal agent of Moniliophthora pod rot in cacao

PubMed Central

Tixier, Philippe; Germon, Amandine; Rakotobe, Veromanitra; Phillips-Mora, Wilbert; Maximova, Siela; Avelino, Jacques

2017-01-01

Moniliophthora Pod Rot (MPR) caused by the fungus Moniliophthora roreri (Cif.) Evans et al., is one of the main limiting factors of cocoa production in Latin America. Currently insufficient information on the biology and epidemiology of the pathogen limits the development of efficient management options to control MPR. This research aims to elucidate MPR development through the following daily microclimatic variables: minimum and maximum temperatures, wetness frequency, average temperature and relative humidity in the highly susceptible cacao clone Pound-7 (incidence = 86% 2008–2013 average). A total of 55 cohorts totaling 2,268 pods of 3–10 cm length, one to two months of age, were tagged weekly. Pods were assessed throughout their lifetime, every one or two weeks, and classified in 3 different categories: healthy, diseased with no sporulation, diseased with sporulating lesions. As a first step, we used Generalized Linear Mixed Models (GLMM) to determine with no a priori the period (when and for how long) each climatic variable was better related with the appearance of symptoms and sporulation. Then the significance of the candidate variables was tested in a complete GLMM. Daily average wetness frequency from day 14 to day 1, before tagging, and daily average maximum temperature from day 4 to day 21, after tagging, were the most explanatory variables of the symptoms appearance. The former was positively linked with the symptoms appearance when the latter exhibited a maximum at 30°C. The most important variables influencing sporulation were daily average minimum temperature from day 35 to day 58 and daily average maximum temperature from day 37 to day 48, both after tagging. Minimum temperature was negatively linked with the sporulation while maximum temperature was positively linked. Results indicated that the fungal microclimatic requirements vary from the early to the late cycle stages, possibly due to the pathogen’s long latent period. This information is valuable for development of new conceptual models for MPR and improvement of control methods. PMID:28972981

Effects of microclimatic variables on the symptoms and signs onset of Moniliophthora roreri, causal agent of Moniliophthora pod rot in cacao.

PubMed

Leandro-Muñoz, Mariela E; Tixier, Philippe; Germon, Amandine; Rakotobe, Veromanitra; Phillips-Mora, Wilbert; Maximova, Siela; Avelino, Jacques

2017-01-01

Moniliophthora Pod Rot (MPR) caused by the fungus Moniliophthora roreri (Cif.) Evans et al., is one of the main limiting factors of cocoa production in Latin America. Currently insufficient information on the biology and epidemiology of the pathogen limits the development of efficient management options to control MPR. This research aims to elucidate MPR development through the following daily microclimatic variables: minimum and maximum temperatures, wetness frequency, average temperature and relative humidity in the highly susceptible cacao clone Pound-7 (incidence = 86% 2008-2013 average). A total of 55 cohorts totaling 2,268 pods of 3-10 cm length, one to two months of age, were tagged weekly. Pods were assessed throughout their lifetime, every one or two weeks, and classified in 3 different categories: healthy, diseased with no sporulation, diseased with sporulating lesions. As a first step, we used Generalized Linear Mixed Models (GLMM) to determine with no a priori the period (when and for how long) each climatic variable was better related with the appearance of symptoms and sporulation. Then the significance of the candidate variables was tested in a complete GLMM. Daily average wetness frequency from day 14 to day 1, before tagging, and daily average maximum temperature from day 4 to day 21, after tagging, were the most explanatory variables of the symptoms appearance. The former was positively linked with the symptoms appearance when the latter exhibited a maximum at 30°C. The most important variables influencing sporulation were daily average minimum temperature from day 35 to day 58 and daily average maximum temperature from day 37 to day 48, both after tagging. Minimum temperature was negatively linked with the sporulation while maximum temperature was positively linked. Results indicated that the fungal microclimatic requirements vary from the early to the late cycle stages, possibly due to the pathogen's long latent period. This information is valuable for development of new conceptual models for MPR and improvement of control methods.

Modelling coffee leaf rust risk in Colombia with climate reanalysis data.

PubMed

Bebber, Daniel P; Castillo, Ángela Delgado; Gurr, Sarah J

2016-12-05

Many fungal plant diseases are strongly controlled by weather, and global climate change is thus likely to have affected fungal pathogen distributions and impacts. Modelling the response of plant diseases to climate change is hampered by the difficulty of estimating pathogen-relevant microclimatic variables from standard meteorological data. The availability of increasingly sophisticated high-resolution climate reanalyses may help overcome this challenge. We illustrate the use of climate reanalyses by testing the hypothesis that climate change increased the likelihood of the 2008-2011 outbreak of Coffee Leaf Rust (CLR, Hemileia vastatrix) in Colombia. We develop a model of germination and infection risk, and drive this model using estimates of leaf wetness duration and canopy temperature from the Japanese 55-Year Reanalysis (JRA-55). We model germination and infection as Weibull functions with different temperature optima, based upon existing experimental data. We find no evidence for an overall trend in disease risk in coffee-growing regions of Colombia from 1990 to 2015, therefore, we reject the climate change hypothesis. There was a significant elevation in predicted CLR infection risk from 2008 to 2011 compared with other years. JRA-55 data suggest a decrease in canopy surface water after 2008, which may have helped terminate the outbreak. The spatial resolution and accuracy of climate reanalyses are continually improving, increasing their utility for biological modelling. Confronting disease models with data requires not only accurate climate data, but also disease observations at high spatio-temporal resolution. Investment in monitoring, storage and accessibility of plant disease observation data are needed to match the quality of the climate data now available.This article is part of the themed issue 'Tackling emerging fungal threats to animal health, food security and ecosystem resilience'. © 2016 The Authors.

A multidisciplinary approach to the study of cultural heritage environments: Experience at the Palatina Library in Parma.

PubMed

Pasquarella, C; Balocco, C; Pasquariello, G; Petrone, G; Saccani, E; Manotti, P; Ugolotti, M; Palla, F; Maggi, O; Albertini, R

2015-12-01

The aim of this paper is to describe a multidisciplinary approach including biological and particle monitoring, and microclimate analysis associated with the application of the Computational Fluid Dynamic (CFD). This approach was applied at the Palatina historical library in Parma. Monitoring was performed both in July and in December, in the absence of visitors and operators. Air microbial monitoring was performed with active and passive methods. Airborne particles with a diameter of ≥0.3, ≥0.5, ≥1 and ≥5 μm/m3, were counted by a laser particle counter. The surface contamination of shelves and manuscripts was assessed with nitrocellulose membranes. A spore trap sampler was used to identify both viable and non-viable fungal spores by optical microscope. Microbiological contaminants were analyzed through cultural and molecular biology techniques. Microclimatic parameters were also recorded. An infrared thermal camera provided information on the surface temperature of the different building materials, objects and components. Transient simulation models, for coupled heat and mass-moisture transfer, taking into account archivist and general public movements, combined with the related sensible and latent heat released into the environment, were carried out applying the CFD-FE (Finite Elements) method. Simulations of particle tracing were carried out. A wide variability in environmental microbial contamination, both for air and surfaces, was observed. Cladosporium spp., Alternaria spp., Aspergillus spp., and Penicillium spp. were the most frequently found microfungi. Bacteria such as Streptomyces spp., Bacillus spp., Sphingomonas spp., and Pseudoclavibacter as well as unculturable colonies were characterized by molecular investigation. CFD simulation results obtained were consistent with the experimental data on microclimatic conditions. The tracing and distribution of particles showed the different slice planes of diffusion mostly influenced by the convective airflow. This interdisciplinary research represents a contribution towards the definition of standardized methods for assessing the biological and microclimatic quality of indoor cultural heritage environments. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modelled and field measurements of biogenic hydrocarbon emissions from a Canadian deciduous forest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fuentes, J. D.; Wang, D.; Den Hartog, G.; Neumann, H. H.; Dann, T. F.; Puckett, K. J.

The Biogenic Emission Inventory System (BEIS) used by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (Lamb et al., 1993, Atmospheric Environment21, 1695-1705; Pierce and Waldruff, 1991, J. Air Waste Man. Ass.41, 937-941) was tested for its ability to provide realistic microclimate descriptions within a deciduous forest in Canada. The microclimate description within plant canopies is required because isoprene emission rates from plants are strongly influenced by foliage temperature and photosynthetically active radiation impinging on leaves while monoterpene emissions depend primarily on leaf temperature. Model microclimate results combined with plant emission rates and local biomass distribution were used to derive isoprene and α-pinene emissions from the deciduous forest canopy. In addition, modelled isoprene emission estimates were compared to measured emission rates at the leaf level. The current model formulation provides realistic microclimatic conditions for the forest crown where modelled and measured air and foliage temperature are within 3°C. However, the model provides inadequate microclimate characterizations in the lower canopy where estimated and measured foliage temperatures differ by as much as 10°C. This poor agreement may be partly due to improper model characterization of relative humidity and ambient temperature within the canopy. These uncertainties in estimated foliage temperature can lead to underestimates of hydrocarbon emission estimates of two-fold. Moreover, the model overestimates hydrocarbon emissions during the early part of the growing season and underestimates emissions during the middle and latter part of the growing season. These emission uncertainties arise because of the assumed constant biomass distribution of the forest and constant hydrocarbon emission rates throughout the season. The BEIS model, which is presently used in Canada to estimate inventories of hydrocarbon emissions from vegetation, underestimates emission rates by at least two-fold compared to emissions derived from field measurements. The isoprene emission algorithm proposed by Guenther et al. (1993), applied at the leaf level, provides relatively good agreement compared to measurements. Field measurements indicate that isoprene emissions change with leaf ontogeny and differ amongst tree species. Emission rates defined as function of foliage development stage and plant species need to be introduced in the hydrocarbon emission algorithms. Extensive model evaluation and more hydrocarbon emission measurement;: from different plant species are required to fully assess the appropriateness of this emission calculation approach for Canadian forests.

Moisture rivals temperature in limiting photosynthesis by trees establishing beyond their cold-edge range limit under ambient and warmed conditions.

PubMed

Moyes, Andrew B; Germino, Matthew J; Kueppers, Lara M

2015-09-01

Climate change is altering plant species distributions globally, and warming is expected to promote uphill shifts in mountain trees. However, at many cold-edge range limits, such as alpine treelines in the western United States, tree establishment may be colimited by low temperature and low moisture, making recruitment patterns with warming difficult to predict. We measured response functions linking carbon (C) assimilation and temperature- and moisture-related microclimatic factors for limber pine (Pinus flexilis) seedlings growing in a heating × watering experiment within and above the alpine treeline. We then extrapolated these response functions using observed microclimate conditions to estimate the net effects of warming and associated soil drying on C assimilation across an entire growing season. Moisture and temperature limitations were each estimated to reduce potential growing season C gain from a theoretical upper limit by 15-30% (c. 50% combined). Warming above current treeline conditions provided relatively little benefit to modeled net assimilation, whereas assimilation was sensitive to either wetter or drier conditions. Summer precipitation may be at least as important as temperature in constraining C gain by establishing subalpine trees at and above current alpine treelines as seasonally dry subalpine and alpine ecosystems continue to warm. © 2015 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2015 New Phytologist Trust.

Fine scale climatic and soil variability effects on plant species cover along the Front Range of Colorado, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cumming, William Frank Preston

Fine scale studies are rarely performed to address landscape level responses to microclimatic variability. Is it the timing, distribution, and magnitude of soil temperature and moisture that affects what species emerge each season and, in turn, their resilience to fluctuations in microclimate. For this dissertation research, I evaluated the response of vegetation change to microclimatic variability within two communities over a three year period (2009-2012) utilizing 25 meter transects at two locations along the Front Range of Colorado near Boulder, CO and Golden, CO respectively. To assess microclimatic variability, spatial and temporal autocorrelation analyses were performed with soil temperature and moisture. Species cover was assessed along several line transects and correlated with microclimatic variability. Spatial and temporal autocorrelograms are useful tools in identifying the degree of dependency of soil temperature and moisture on the distance and time between pairs of measurements. With this analysis I found that a meter spatial resolution and two-hour measurements are sufficient to capture the fine scale variability in soil properties throughout the year. By comparing this to in situ measurements of soil properties and species percent cover I found that there are several plant functional types and/or species origin in particular that are more sensitive to variations in temperature and moisture than others. When all seasons, locations, correlations, and regional climate are looked at, it is the month of March that stands out in terms of significance. Additionally, of all of the vegetation types represented at these two sites C4, C3, native, non-native, and forb species seem to be the most sensitive to fluctuations in soil temperature, moisture, and regional climate in the spring season. The steady decline in percent species cover the study period and subsequent decrease in percent species cover and size at both locations may indicate that certain are unable to respond to continually higher temperatures and lower moisture availability that is inevitable with future climatic variability.

Microclimate and limits to photosynthesis in a diverse community of hypolithic cyanobacteria in northern Australia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tracy, Christopher R.; Streten-Joyce, Claire; Dalton, Robert; Nussear, Kenneth E.; Gibb, Karen S.; Christian, Keith A.

2010-01-01

Hypolithic microbes, primarily cyanobacteria, inhabit the highly specialized microhabitats under translucent rocks in extreme environments. Here we report findings from hypolithic cyanobacteria found under three types of translucent rocks (quartz, prehnite, agate) in a semiarid region of tropical Australia. We investigated the photosynthetic responses of the cyanobacterial communities to light, temperature and moisture in the laboratory, and we measured the microclimatic variables of temperature and soil moisture under rocks in the field over an annual cycle. We also used molecular techniques to explore the diversity of hypolithic cyanobacteria in this community and their phylogenetic relationships within the context of hypolithic cyanobacteria from other continents. Based on the laboratory experiments, photosynthetic activity required a minimum soil moisture of 15% (by mass). Peak photosynthetic activity occurred between approximately 8°C and 42°C, though some photosynthesis occurred between −1°C and 51°C. Maximum photosynthesis rates also occurred at light levels of approximately 150–550 μmol m−2 s−1. We used the field microclimatic data in conjunction with these measurements of photosynthetic efficiency to estimate the amount of time the hypolithic cyanobacteria could be photosynthetically active in the field. Based on these data, we estimated that conditions were appropriate for photosynthetic activity for approximately 942 h (∼75 days) during the year. The hypolithic cyanobacteria community under quartz, prehnite and agate rocks was quite diverse both within and between rock types. We identified 115 operational taxonomic units (OTUs), with each rock hosting 8–24 OTUs. A third of the cyanobacteria OTUs from northern Australia grouped with Chroococcidiopsis, a genus that has been identified from hypolithic and endolithic communities from the Gobi, Mojave, Atacama and Antarctic deserts. Several OTUs identified from northern Australia have not been reported to be associated with hypolithic communities previously.

Optimization of canopy conductance models from concurrent measurements of sap flow and stem water potential on Drooping Sheoak in South Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Hailong; Guan, Huade; Deng, Zijuan; Simmons, Craig T.

2014-07-01

Canopy conductance (gc) is a critical component in hydrological modeling for transpiration estimate. It is often formulated as functions of environmental variables. These functions are climate and vegetation specific. Thus, it is important to determine the appropriate functions in gc models and corresponding parameter values for a specific environment. In this study, sap flow, stem water potential, and microclimatic variables were measured for three Drooping Sheoak (Allocasuarina verticillata) trees in year 2011, 2012, and 2014. Canopy conductance was calculated from the inversed Penman-Monteith (PM) equation, which was then used to examine 36 gc models that comprise different response functions. Parameters were optimized using the DiffeRential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) model based on a training data set in 2012. Use of proper predawn stem water potential function, vapor pressure deficit function, and temperature function improves model performance significantly, while no pronounced difference is observed between models that differ in solar radiation functions. The best model gives a correlation coefficient of 0.97, and root-mean-square error of 0.0006 m/s in comparison to the PM-calculated gc. The optimized temperature function shows different characteristics from its counterparts in other similar studies. This is likely due to strong interdependence between air temperature and vapor pressure deficit in the study area or Sheoak tree physiology. Supported by the measurements and optimization results, we suggest that the effects of air temperature and vapor pressure deficit on canopy conductance should be represented together.

Sexual and reproductive behaviour of Drosophila melanogaster from a microclimatically interslope differentiated population of "Evolution Canyon" (Mount Carmel, Israel).

PubMed

Iliadi, K; Iliadi, N; Rashkovetsky, E; Minkov, I; Nevo, E; Korol, A

2001-11-22

The strong microscale interslope environmental differences in "Evolution Canyon" provide an excellent natural model for sympatric speciation. Our previous studies revealed significant slope-specific differences for a fitness complex of Drosophila. This complex involved either adaptation traits (tolerance to high temperature, different viability and longevity pattern) or behavioural differentiation, manifested in habitat choice and non-random mating. This remarkable differentiation has evolved despite a very small interslope distance (a few hundred metres only). Our hypothesis is that strong interslope microclimatic contrast caused differential selection for fitness-related traits accompanied by behavioural differentiation and reinforced by some sexual isolation, which started incipient speciation. Here we describe the results of a systematic analysis of sexual behaviour in a non-choice situation and several reproductive parameters of D. melanogaster populations from the opposite slopes of "Evolution Canyon". The evidence indicates that: (i) mate choice derives from differences in mating propensity and discrimination; (ii) females from the milder north-facing slope discriminate strongly against males of the opposite slope; (iii) both sexes of the south-facing slope display distinct reproductive and behavioural patterns with females showing increased fecundity, shorter time before remating and relatively higher receptivity, and males showing higher mating propensity. These patterns represent adaptive life strategies contributing to higher fitness.

Earth Observation and Indicators Pertaining to Determinants of Health- An Approach to Support Local Scale Characterization of Environmental Determinants of Vector-Borne Diseases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kotchi, Serge Olivier; Brazeau, Stephanie; Ludwig, Antoinette; Aube, Guy; Berthiaume, Pilippe

2016-08-01

Environmental determinants (EVDs) were identified as key determinant of health (DoH) for the emergence and re-emergence of several vector-borne diseases. Maintaining ongoing acquisition of data related to EVDs at local scale and for large regions constitutes a significant challenge. Earth observation (EO) satellites offer a framework to overcome this challenge. However, EO image analysis methods commonly used to estimate EVDs are time and resource consuming. Moreover, variations of microclimatic conditions combined with high landscape heterogeneity limit the effectiveness of climatic variables derived from EO. In this study, we present what are DoH and EVDs, the impacts of EVDs on vector-borne diseases in the context of global environmental change, the need to characterize EVDs of vector-borne diseases at local scale and its challenges, and finally we propose an approach based on EO images to estimate at local scale indicators pertaining to EVDs of vector-borne diseases.

[Survey on microclimatic condition of classroom].

PubMed

Grillo, O C; La Scala, R; Sindoni, L; Anzalone, C

2003-01-01

The results of a research, in winter and spring, on the microclimatic parameters and lighting in eighteen classrooms of primary schools in the town of Messina, are exposed. In a significant number of classrooms values of temperature and relative humidity are registered not in accordance with Italian standards. Thermal indices (PMV and PPD) showed, in both seasons, discomfort conditions in many rooms. A percentage of dissatisfied persons, significantly higher the 10% (56.8% in winter and 70.3% in spring), has been obtained. We used, also, a questionnaire modified by Fanger to evaluate the thermal subjective sensations of the students. The results point out that the thermal subjective sensations expressed by the students are often in disagreement with the Fanger thermal comfort indices obtained by instrument. The authors believe that the Fanger's indices do not reflect the effective environmental conditions.

Microclimatic Variation Within Sleeve Cages Used in Ecological Studies

PubMed Central

Nelson, Lori A.; Rieske, Lynne K.

2014-01-01

Abstract Sleeve cages for enclosing or excluding arthropods are essential components of field studies evaluating trophic interactions. Microclimatic variation in sleeve cages was evaluated to characterize its potential effects on subsequent long-term experiments. Two sleeve cage materials, polyester and nylon, and two cage sizes, 400 and 6000 cm 2 , were tested on eastern hemlock, Tsuga canadensis (L.) Carrière. Temperature and relative humidity inside and outside cages, and the cost and durability of the cage materials, were compared. Long-term effects of the sleeve cages were observed by measuring new growth on T. canadensis branches. The ultimate goal was to identify a material that minimizes bag-induced microclimatic variation. Bagged branches whose microclimates mimic those of surrounding unbagged branches should have minimal effects on plant growth and may prove ideal venues for assessing herbivore and predator behavior under natural conditions. No differences were found in temperature or humidity between caging materials. Small cages had higher average temperatures than large cages, especially in the winter, but this difference was confounded by the fact that small cages were positioned higher in trees than large cages. Differences in plant growth were detected. Eastern hemlock branches enclosed within polyester cages produced fewer new growth tips than uncaged controls. Both polyester and nylon cages reduced the length of new shoot growth relative to uncaged branches. In spite of higher costs, nylon cages were superior to polyester with respect to durability and ease of handling. PMID:25368083

Effects of summer microclimates on behavior of lions and tigers in zoos.

PubMed

Young, Tory; Finegan, Esther; Brown, Robert D

2013-05-01

The surrounding thermal environment has a direct influence on the well-being of an animal. However, few studies have investigated the microclimatic conditions that result from outdoor zoo enclosure designs and whether this affects where animals choose to spend time. Two African lions (Panthera leo) and two Siberian/Amur tigers (Panthera tigris altaica) were observed for a total of 18 full days during the summer and fall of 2009. Their activities and locations were recorded to the nearest minute of each test day. Simultaneous on-site microclimate measurements were taken of air temperature, relative humidity, solar radiation, and wind. Observations indicated that the locations where the animals chose to spend time were influenced by the microclimatic conditions. All subjects spent more time in the shade on their sunny warm days than on other days and differed from one another in their choice of shade source on all days. Temperature-comparable sunny and cloudy days showed a greater use of sun on the cloudy days. Species-specific differences between the lions (whose native habitat is hot) and the tigers (whose native habitat is temperate with cold winters) were observed with the tigers displaying more cooling behaviors than the lions in terms of solar radiation input and evaporative heat loss. The tigers were also more active than the lions. The results of this study provide new insight into how lions and tigers respond to microclimatic conditions in a captive environment.

Effects of summer microclimates on behavior of lions and tigers in zoos

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Young, Tory; Finegan, Esther; Brown, Robert D.

2013-05-01

The surrounding thermal environment has a direct influence on the well-being of an animal. However, few studies have investigated the microclimatic conditions that result from outdoor zoo enclosure designs and whether this affects where animals choose to spend time. Two African lions ( Panthera leo) and two Siberian/Amur tigers ( Panthera tigris altaica) were observed for a total of 18 full days during the summer and fall of 2009. Their activities and locations were recorded to the nearest minute of each test day. Simultaneous on-site microclimate measurements were taken of air temperature, relative humidity, solar radiation, and wind. Observations indicated that the locations where the animals chose to spend time were influenced by the microclimatic conditions. All subjects spent more time in the shade on their sunny warm days than on other days and differed from one another in their choice of shade source on all days. Temperature-comparable sunny and cloudy days showed a greater use of sun on the cloudy days. Species-specific differences between the lions (whose native habitat is hot) and the tigers (whose native habitat is temperate with cold winters) were observed with the tigers displaying more cooling behaviors than the lions in terms of solar radiation input and evaporative heat loss. The tigers were also more active than the lions. The results of this study provide new insight into how lions and tigers respond to microclimatic conditions in a captive environment.

Humid microclimates within the plumage of mallard ducks (Anas platyrhynchos) can potentially facilitate long distance dispersal of propagules

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coughlan, Neil E.; Kelly, Tom C.; Davenport, John; Jansen, Marcel A. K.

2015-05-01

Birds as carriers of propagules are major agents in the dispersal of plants, animals, fungi and microbes. However, there is a lack of empirical data in relation to bird-mediated, epizoochorous dispersal. The microclimate found within the plumage likely plays a pivotal role in survival during flight conditions. To investigate the potential of epizoochory, we have analysed the microclimatic conditions within the plumage of mallard ducks (Anas platyrhynchos). Under similar ambient conditions of humidity and temperature, a sample of mallards showed a consistent microclimatic regime with variation across the body surface. The highest (mean) temperature and specific humidity occurred between feathers of the postpatagium. The lowest humidity was found between feathers of the centre back and the lowest temperature in the crissum. Observed differences in plumage depth and density, and distance from the skin, are all likely to be determining factors of microclimate condition. Specific humidity found within the plumage was on average 1.8-3.5 times greater than ambient specific humidity. Thus, the plumage can supply a microclimate buffered from that of the exterior environment. Extrapolating survival data for Lemna minor desiccation at various temperature and humidity levels to the measured plumage microclimatic conditions of living birds, survival for up to 6 h can be anticipated, especially in crissum, crural and breast plumage. The results are discussed in the context of potential long distance epizoochorous dispersal by A. platyrhynchos and similar species.

Assessment of microbiological contamination in the work environments of museums, archives and libraries.

PubMed

Skóra, Justyna; Gutarowska, Beata; Pielech-Przybylska, Katarzyna; Stępień, Łukasz; Pietrzak, Katarzyna; Piotrowska, Małgorzata; Pietrowski, Piotr

Museums, archives and libraries have large working environments. The goal of this study was to determine microbial contamination in these work places and estimate the influence of microclimatic parameters and total dust content on microbial contamination. In addition, research included evaluation of ergosterol concentration and fungal bioaerosol particle size distribution. Numbers of micro-organisms in the air and on the surfaces in museums were higher (2.1 × 10 2 -7.0 × 10 3  cfu/m 3 and 1.4 × 10 2 -1.7 × 10 4  cfu/100 cm 2 , respectively) than in archives and libraries (3.2 × 10 2 -7.2 × 10 2  cfu/m 3 and 8.4 × 10 2 -8.8 × 10 2  cfu/100 cm 2 , respectively). The numbers of micro-organisms detected in the tested museums, archives and libraries did not exceed occupational exposure limits proposed by Polish Committee for the Highest Permissible Concentrations and Intensities of Noxious Agents at the Workplace. The concentrations of respirable and suspended dust in museum storerooms were 2-4 times higher than the WHO-recommended limits. We found a correlation between microclimatic conditions and numbers of micro-organisms in the air in the tested working environments. In addition, a correlation was also found between ergosterol concentration and the number of fungi in the air. Fungi were the dominant micro-organisms in the working environments tested. Particles within the dominant fractions of culturable fungal aerosols sampled from museum storerooms had aerodynamic diameters between 1.1 and 2.1 µm.

Tables and conversions for microclimatology.

Treesearch

James M. Brown

1973-01-01

A series of tables, charts, and conversion factors have been prepared for use in microclimatic and ecological studies. Included are: the solution to various equations of radiant energy exchange; solar radiation diagrams; psychometric and precipitation data; and unit conversion factors.

Human exposure to environmental health concern by types of urban environment: The case of Tel Aviv.

PubMed

Schnell, Izhak; Potchter, Oded; Yaakov, Yaron; Epstein, Yoram

2016-01-01

This study classifies urban environments into types characterized by different exposure to environmental risk factors measured by general sense of discomfort and Heart Rate Variability (HRV). We hypothesize that a set of environmental factors (micro-climatic, CO, noise and individual heart rate) that were measured simultaneously in random locations can provide a better understanding of the distribution of human exposure to environmental loads throughout the urban space than results calculated based on measurements from close fixed stations. We measured micro-climatic and thermal load, CO and noise, individual Heart Rate, Subjective Social Load and Sense of Discomfort (SD) were tested by questionnaire survey. The results demonstrate significant differences in exposure to environmental factors among 8 types of urban environments. It appears that noise and social load are the more significant environmental factors to enhance health risks and general sense of discomfort. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Vegetation patches improve the establishment of Salvia mexicana seedlings by modifying microclimatic conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mendoza-Hernández, Pedro E.; Rosete-Rodríguez, Alejandra; Sánchez-Coronado, María E.; Orozco, Susana; Pedrero-López, Luis; Méndez, Ignacio; Orozco-Segovia, Alma

2014-07-01

Human disturbance has disrupted the dynamics of plant communities. To restore these dynamics, we could take advantage of the microclimatic conditions generated by remaining patches of vegetation and plastic mulch. These microclimatic conditions might have great importance in restoring disturbed lava fields located south of Mexico City, where the rock is exposed and the soil is shallow. We evaluated the effects of both the shade projected by vegetation patches and plastic mulch on the mean monthly soil surface temperature ( T ss) and photosynthetic photon flux density (PPFD) and on the survival and growth of Salvia mexicana throughout the year. This species was used as a phytometer of microsite quality. Shade reduced the T ss to a greater extent than mulch did. Both survival and growth were enhanced by shade and mulch, and the PPFD was related with seedling growth. During the dry season, plant biomass was lost, and there was a negative effect of PPFD on plant growth. At micro-meteorological scales, the use of shade projected by patches of vegetation and mulch significantly reduced the mortality of S. mexicana and enhanced its growth. Survival and growth of this plant depended on the environmental quality of microsites on a small scale, which was determined by the environmental heterogeneity of the patches and the landscape. For plant restoration, microsite quality must be evaluated on small scales, but on a large scale it may be enough to take advantage of landscape shade dynamics and the use of mulch to increase plant survival and growth.

Vegetation patches improve the establishment of Salvia mexicana seedlings by modifying microclimatic conditions.

PubMed

Mendoza-Hernández, Pedro E; Rosete-Rodríguez, Alejandra; Sánchez-Coronado, María E; Orozco, Susana; Pedrero-López, Luis; Méndez, Ignacio; Orozco-Segovia, Alma

2014-07-01

Human disturbance has disrupted the dynamics of plant communities. To restore these dynamics, we could take advantage of the microclimatic conditions generated by remaining patches of vegetation and plastic mulch. These microclimatic conditions might have great importance in restoring disturbed lava fields located south of Mexico City, where the rock is exposed and the soil is shallow. We evaluated the effects of both the shade projected by vegetation patches and plastic mulch on the mean monthly soil surface temperature (Tss) and photosynthetic photon flux density (PPFD) and on the survival and growth of Salvia mexicana throughout the year. This species was used as a phytometer of microsite quality. Shade reduced the T ss to a greater extent than mulch did. Both survival and growth were enhanced by shade and mulch, and the PPFD was related with seedling growth. During the dry season, plant biomass was lost, and there was a negative effect of PPFD on plant growth. At micro-meteorological scales, the use of shade projected by patches of vegetation and mulch significantly reduced the mortality of S. mexicana and enhanced its growth. Survival and growth of this plant depended on the environmental quality of microsites on a small scale, which was determined by the environmental heterogeneity of the patches and the landscape. For plant restoration, microsite quality must be evaluated on small scales, but on a large scale it may be enough to take advantage of landscape shade dynamics and the use of mulch to increase plant survival and growth.

Nest-site selection in the acorn woodpecker

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hooge, P.N.; Stanback, M.T.; Koenig, Walter D.

1999-01-01

Acorn Woodpeckers (Melanerpes formicivorus) at Hastings Reservation in central California prefer to nest in dead limbs in large, dead valley oaks (Quercus lobata) and California sycamores (Platanus racemosa) that are also frequently used as acorn storage trees. Based on 232 nest cavities used over an 18-year period, we tested whether preferred or modal nest-site characters were associated with increased reproductive success (the "nest-site quality" hypothesis). We also examined whether more successful nests were likely to experience more favorable microclimatic conditions or to be less accessible to terrestrial predators. We found only equivocal support for the nest-site quality hypothesis: only 1 of 5 preferred characters and 2 of 10 characters exhibiting a clear modality were correlated with higher reproductive success. All three characteristics of nests known or likely to be associated with a more favorable microclimate, and two of five characteristics likely to render nests less accessible to predators, were correlated with higher reproductive success. These results suggest that nest cavities in this population are built in part to take advantage of favorable microclimatic conditions and, to a lesser extent, to reduce access to predators. However, despite benefits of particular nest characteristics, birds frequently nested in apparently suboptimal cavities. We also found a significant relationship between mean group size and the history of occupancy of particular territories and the probability of nest cavities being built in microclimatically favorable live limbs, suggesting that larger groups residing on more stable territories were better able to construct nests with optimal characteristics. This indicates that there may be demographic, as well as ecological, constraints on nest-site selection in this primary cavity nester.

Physiological state influences evaporative water loss and microclimate preference in the snake Vipera aspis.

PubMed

Dupoué, Andréaz; Stahlschmidt, Zachary R; Michaud, Bruno; Lourdais, Olivier

2015-05-15

Animals typically respond to environmental variation by adjusting their physiology, behavior, or both. Ectothermic animals are particularly sensitive to microclimatic conditions and behaviorally thermoregulate to optimize physiological performance. Yet, thermoregulation can be costly and may obligate a physiological tradeoff with water loss. Presumably, this tradeoff intensifies when animals undergo necessary life-history events (e.g., pregnancy or digestion) that impose significant behavioral and physiological changes, including shifts in behavioral thermoregulation and increased metabolic rate. Thus, behavioral responses, such as modified microclimatic preferences, may help mitigate the physiological tradeoff between thermoregulation and water loss. Herein, we examined the influence of major physiological states (specifically, pregnancy, ecdysis, and digestion) on evaporative water loss and on behavioral adjustments in a viviparous snake, Vipera aspis. First, we used open-flow respirometry to measure the effects of physiological states and microclimatic conditions (temperature and humidity) on the rate of total evaporative water loss (TEWL) and metabolic rate (rate of O2 consumption, V˙O2). Then, we experimentally tested the influence of physiological state on microclimate selection. We found that energy-demanding physiological states were associated with i) an increased rate of TEWL and V˙O2 compared to control states and ii) a slight preference (statistically marginal) for both warm and humid conditions compared to controls, suggesting a state-specificity in behavioral response. Overall our results underline the impact of physiological state on water loss and demonstrate the potential for behavior to mitigate the physiological tradeoff between thermoregulation and water balance. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Adaptive microclimatic structural and expressional dehydrin 1 evolution in wild barley, Hordeum spontaneum, at 'Evolution Canyon', Mount Carmel, Israel.

PubMed

Yang, Zujun; Zhang, Tao; Bolshoy, Alexander; Beharav, Alexander; Nevo, Eviatar

2009-05-01

'Evolution Canyon' (ECI) at Lower Nahal Oren, Mount Carmel, Israel, is an optimal natural microscale model for unravelling evolution in action highlighting the twin evolutionary processes of adaptation and speciation. A major model organism in ECI is wild barley, Hordeum spontaneum, the progenitor of cultivated barley, which displays dramatic interslope adaptive and speciational divergence on the 'African' dry slope (AS) and the 'European' humid slope (ES), separated on average by 200 m. Here we examined interslope single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) sequences and the expression diversity of the drought resistant dehydrin 1 gene (Dhn1) between the opposite slopes. We analysed 47 plants (genotypes), 4-10 individuals in each of seven stations (populations) in an area of 7000 m(2), for Dhn1 sequence diversity located in the 5' upstream flanking region of the gene. We found significant levels of Dhn1 genic diversity represented by 29 haplotypes, derived from 45 SNPs in a total of 708 bp sites. Most of the haplotypes, 25 out of 29 (= 86.2%), were represented by one genotype; hence, unique to one population. Only a single haplotype was common to both slopes. Genetic divergence of sequence and haplotype diversity was generally and significantly different among the populations and slopes. Nucleotide diversity was higher on the AS, whereas haplotype diversity was higher on the ES. Interslope divergence was significantly higher than intraslope divergence. The applied Tajima D rejected neutrality of the SNP diversity. The Dhn1 expression under dehydration indicated interslope divergent expression between AS and ES genotypes, reinforcing Dhn1 associated with drought resistance of wild barley at 'Evolution Canyon'. These results are inexplicable by mutation, gene flow, or chance effects, and support adaptive natural microclimatic selection as the major evolutionary divergent driving force.

Step back! Niche dynamics in cave-dwelling predators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mammola, Stefano; Piano, Elena; Isaia, Marco

2016-08-01

The geometry of the Hutchinson's hypervolume derives from multiple selective pressures defined, on one hand, by the physiological tolerance of the species, and on the other, by intra- and interspecific competition. The quantification of these evolutionary forces is essential for the understanding of the coexistence of predators in light of competitive exclusion dynamics. We address this topic by investigating the ecological niche of two medium-sized troglophile spiders (Meta menardi and Pimoa graphitica). Over one year, we surveyed several populations in four subterranean sites in the Western Italian Alps, monitoring monthly their spatial and temporal dynamics and the associated physical and ecological variables. We assessed competition between the two species by means of multi regression techniques and by evaluating the intersection between their multidimensional hypervolumes. We detected a remarkable overlap between the microclimatic and trophic niche of M. menardi and P. graphitica, however, the former -being larger in size- resulted the best competitor in proximity of the cave entrance, causing the latter to readjust its spatial niche towards the inner part, where prey availability is scarcer ("step back effect"). In parallel to the slight variations in the subterranean microclimatic condition, the niche of the two species was also found to be seasonal dependent, varying over the year. With this work, we aim at providing new insights about the relationships among predators, demonstrating that energy-poor environments such as caves maintain the potential for diversification of predators via niche differentiation and serve as useful models for theoretical ecological studies.

Monitoring of natural factors in Czech speleotherapeutic centres

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sas, D.; Navrátil, O.; Sládek, P.

1999-01-01

The work deals with the problems of volume activity of radon and its daughter products, of the concentration of positive and negative atmospheric ions and microclimatic conditions in speleotherapeutic centres Zlaté Hory (ore gallery) and Javoříčko (cave).

Comparison of microclimate in various land-use systems in Sumatra, Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shekhar Badu, Chandra; Meijide, Ana; Gunawan, Dodo; Knohl, Alexander

2017-04-01

Deforestation and land-use changes are ongoing problems for rain forests in Indonesia. The conversion of forests to monocultures of rubber and oil palm plantations reduces not only biodiversity and carbon pools but also affects canopy structure, which is an important determinant of microclimate. There is, however, a lack of quantitative information characterizing the effect of land transformation on microclimate with a systematic experimental design. Here, we report observations microclimatic conditions (air temperature, relative humidity, soil moisture and soil temperature) on a daily, weekly and seasonal basis across four land-use systems (rain forest, jungle rubber, rubber plantation, oil palm plantation) in two near-by landscapes. The data set covers a period of approximately three years from April 2013 to March 2016 and includes one of the strongest El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) of the last decades. Mean air temperature, soil temperature, relative humidity, and vapour pressure deficit differed significantly between the four land-use systems whereas the mean soil moisture differed significantly between two landscapes. Air temperature, vapour pressure deficit and soil temperature were highest in oil palm and rubber plantations whereas lowest in forest and jungle rubber. Canopy openness was the most dominant control of microclimatic differences across the land-use systems. During the ENSO 2015, a significant increase in mean air temperature, soil temperature and vapour pressure deficit but a decrease in relative air humidity and soil moisture in all four land-use systems was found. The relative effect of ENSO was highest in forest and jungle rubber compared to rubber and oil palm plantations. In conclusion, conversion of forest to rubber and oil palm plantations has led to substantially warmer and drier microclimatic conditions than before.

The hydroclimatic and ecophysiological basis of cloud forest distributions under current and projected climates

PubMed Central

Oliveira, Rafael S.; Eller, Cleiton B.; Bittencourt, Paulo R. L.; Mulligan, Mark

2014-01-01

Background Tropical montane cloud forests (TMCFs) are characterized by a unique set of biological and hydroclimatic features, including frequent and/or persistent fog, cool temperatures, and high biodiversity and endemism. These forests are one of the most vulnerable ecosystems to climate change given their small geographic range, high endemism and dependence on a rare microclimatic envelope. The frequency of atmospheric water deficits for some TMCFs is likely to increase in the future, but the consequences for the integrity and distribution of these ecosystems are uncertain. In order to investigate plant and ecosystem responses to climate change, we need to know how TMCF species function in response to current climate, which factors shape function and ecology most and how these will change into the future. Scope This review focuses on recent advances in ecophysiological research of TMCF plants to establish a link between TMCF hydrometeorological conditions and vegetation distribution, functioning and survival. The hydraulic characteristics of TMCF trees are discussed, together with the prevalence and ecological consequences of foliar uptake of fog water (FWU) in TMCFs, a key process that allows efficient acquisition of water during cloud immersion periods, minimizing water deficits and favouring survival of species prone to drought-induced hydraulic failure. Conclusions Fog occurrence is the single most important microclimatic feature affecting the distribution and function of TMCF plants. Plants in TMCFs are very vulnerable to drought (possessing a small hydraulic safety margin), and the presence of fog and FWU minimizes the occurrence of tree water deficits and thus favours the survival of TMCF trees where such deficits may occur. Characterizing the interplay between microclimatic dynamics and plant water relations is key to foster more realistic projections about climate change effects on TMCF functioning and distribution. PMID:24759267

[Workplace safety in private companies of freights and on the road workers: comparison between small and medium enterprises].

PubMed

Mannocci, Alice; Gabrijelcic, Simona; Di Thiene, Domitilla; Saulle, Rosella; Boccia, A; La Torre, G

2012-01-01

The road freight and passenger transport sector exposes the workers of this sector to a considerable health risk. Application of the relative legislation to safeguard worker's safety is an obligation for the employer. The aim of the study was to assess the application of current legislation in the trucking sector and ascertain whether there are differences between large and small enterprises. The study was conducted through direct interview with managers of road freight and passenger transport companies in the Lazio Region in 2009. Information was collected using a questionnaire composed of 77 items concerning risk assessment and organization aspects in the enterprises. The enterprisers were stratified by number of workers and drivers. To detect possible associations the Chi-squared and Fisher's Exact tests were used. A total of 42 enterprisers participated in the study. Significant differences were found between larger enterprisers (10 workers) and smaller enterprises (< 10 workers), concerning risk assessment from vibrations (p = 0.006), night work (p = 0.026), microclimatic conditions (p = 0.047). Regarding risk prevention/management aspects, the enterprisers with a higher number of workers were more likely to have a workers' representative for safety compared to the smaller enterprises (respectively 88.9% versus 50.0%) and a road accidents Register (77.8% versus 16.7%), with p < 0.001 significance levels. The risks most frequently assessed, in decreasing order, were: vibrations, manual handling of loads, stress, noise, awkward postures, night work, alcohol consumption, drug addiction and microclimatic conditions. Vibrations, night work and microclimatic conditions risks were assessed to a lower degree in the smaller enterprisers compared to the larger enterprises.

Effects of Japanese barberry (Ranunculales: Berberidaceae) removal and resulting microclimatic changes on Ixodes scapularis (Acari: Ixodidae) abundances in Connecticut, USA.

PubMed

Williams, Scott C; Ward, Jeffrey S

2010-12-01

Japanese barberry (Berberis thunbergii de Candolle) is a thorny, perennial, exotic, invasive shrub that is well established throughout much of the eastern United States. It can form dense thickets that limit native herbaceous and woody regeneration, alter soil structure and function, and harbor increased blacklegged tick (Ixodes scapularis Say) populations. This study examined a potential causal mechanism for the link between Japanese barberry and blacklegged ticks to determine if eliminating Japanese barberry could reduce tick abundance and associated prevalence of Borrelia burgdorferi (Johnson, Schmid, Hyde, Steigerwalt, and Brenner). Japanese barberry was controlled at five study areas throughout Connecticut; adult ticks were sampled over three years. Each area had three habitat plots: areas where barberry was controlled, areas where barberry remained intact, and areas where barberry was minimal or absent. Sampled ticks were retained and tested for B. burgdorferi presence. At two study areas, temperature and relative humidity data loggers were deployed in each of the three habitat plots over two growing seasons. Intact barberry stands had 280 ± 51 B. burgdorferi-infected adult ticks/ha, which was significantly higher than for controlled (121 ± 17/ha) and no barberry (30 ± 10/ha) areas. Microclimatic conditions where Japanese barberry was controlled were similar to areas without barberry. Japanese barberry infestations are favorable habitat for ticks, as they provide a buffered microclimate that limits desiccation-induced tick mortality. Control of Japanese barberry reduced the number of ticks infected with B. burgdorferi by nearly 60% by reverting microclimatic conditions to those more typical of native northeastern forests. © 2010 Entomological Society of America

Grape aroma precursors in cv. Nebbiolo as affected by vine microclimate.

PubMed

Asproudi, Andriani; Petrozziello, Maurizio; Cavalletto, Silvia; Guidoni, Silvia

2016-11-15

The influence exerted by bunch microclimate on some C13-norisoprenoid precursors content was investigated for the first time in Nebbiolo grapes during ripening. Samples were collected, during two consecutive seasons, from two vineyards, which are characterized by different microclimatic conditions caused by vine vigour heterogeneity and different vineyard aspects. Enzymatic hydrolysis of the glycosides extracted from the grapes, and subsequent GC-MS determination of the aglycones, highlighted that the majority of norisoprenoid glycosides accumulated in Nebbiolo berries from pre-veraison until 3-4weeks post-veraison. Vineyard aspect and vine vigour affected the timing of the maximum concentration of norisoprenoid precursors and their subsequent decrease at harvest. Low light in the vigorous blocks penalized norisoprenoids peak concentration. In the south less vigorous blocks, a decline of total norisoprenoids content during the pre-harvest period was observed. This decline appeared mainly regulated by the temperature. Vintage and/or microclimatic conditions affected the final content of some important norisoprenoids. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Measured and perceived environmental comfort: field monitoring in an Italian school.

PubMed

De Giuli, Valeria; Zecchin, Roberto; Corain, Livio; Salmaso, Luigi

2014-07-01

Microclimatic conditions were recorded in an Italian school and Fanger's indexes PMV and PPD were calculated under different conditions. Students' sensations were investigated four times by means of two surveys, one related to actual microclimatic conditions and one on overall satisfaction, interaction occupant-building and reactions to discomfort. Pupils' classroom position was considered to look for possible influence on thermal comfort: a difference emerged from PMV and the survey, but the results obtained from the two approaches differ for both the entity of discomfort and its distribution within each classroom. Innovative multivariate nonparametric statistical techniques were applied to compare and rank the classrooms in accordance with students' subjective perceptions; a global ranking has been also calculated, considering thermal and visual comfort and air quality. Comparing pupil-sensation-based ranking with environmental parameters no clear correspondence was found, except for mid-season, where PMV, CO2 concentration and desk illuminance were similar in all the classrooms. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd and The Ergonomics Society. All rights reserved.

Sexual reproduction, seeds, and seedlings

Treesearch

Walter T. McDonough

1985-01-01

Natural genetic interchange and extensive colonization of aspen by seed strongly depends upon favorable climatic and microclimatic conditions and upon human intervention. At times, in regions with the right combination of environmental conditions, there is significant L, reproduction by seed; elsewhere such establishment is rare. Seed production generally is profuse;...

Alterations of hydraulic soil properties influenced by land-use changes and agricultural management systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weninger, Thomas; Kreiselmeier, Janis; Chandrasekhar, Parvathy; Jülich, Stefan; Schwärzel, Kai; Schwen, Andreas

2016-04-01

Estimation and modeling of soil water movement and the hydrologic balance of soils requires sound knowledge about hydraulic soil properties (HSP). The soil water characteristics, the hydraulic conductivity function and the pore size distribution (PSD) are commonly used instruments for the mathematical representation of HSP. Recent research highlighted the temporal variability of these functions caused by meteorological or land-use influences. State of the art modeling software for the continuous simulation of soil water movement uses a stationary approach for the HSP which means that their time dependent alterations and the subsequent effects on soil water balance is not considered. Mathematical approaches to describe the evolution of PSD are nevertheless known, but there is a lack of sound data basis for parameter estimation. Based on extensive field and laboratory measurements at 5 locations along a climatic gradient across Austria and Germany, this study will quantify short-term changes in HSP, detect driving forces and introduce a method to predict the effects of soil and land management actions on the soil water balance. Amongst several soil properties, field-saturated and unsaturated hydraulic conductivities will be determined using a hood infiltration experiments in the field as well as by evaporation and dewpoint potentiometer method in the lab. All measurements will be carried out multiple times over a span of 2 years which will allow a detailed monitoring of changes in HSP. Experimental sites where we expect significant inter-seasonal changes will be equipped with sensors for soil moisture and matric potential. The choice of experimental field sites follows the intention to involve especially the effects of tillage operations, different cultivation strategies, microclimatically effective structures and land-use changes. The international project enables the coverage of a broad range of soil types as well as climate conditions and hence will have broad applicability of the implemented model modifications.

Habitat moisture is an important driver of patterns of sap flow and water balance in tropical montane cloud forest epiphytes.

PubMed

Darby, Alexander; Draguljić, Danel; Glunk, Andrew; Gotsch, Sybil G

2016-10-01

Microclimate in the tropical montane cloud forest (TMCF) is variable on both spatial and temporal scales and can lead to large fluctuations in both leaf-level transpiration and whole plant water use. While variation in transpiration has been found in TMCFs, the influence of different microclimatic drivers on plant water relations in this ecosystem has been relatively understudied. Within the TMCF, epiphytes may be particularly affected by natural variation in microclimate due to their partial or complete disassociation from soil resources. In this study, we examined the effects of seasonal microclimate on whole plant water balance in epiphytes in both an observational and a manipulative experiment. We also evaluated the effects of different microclimatic drivers using three hierarchical linear (mixed) models. On average, 31 % of total positive sap flow was recovered via foliar water uptake (FWU) over the course of the study. We found that precipitation was the greatest driver of foliar water uptake and nighttime sap flow in our study species and that both VPD and precipitation were important drivers to daytime sap flow. We also found that despite adaptations to withstand seasonal drought, an extended dry period caused severe desiccation in most plants despite a large reduction in leaf-level and whole plant transpiration. Our results indicate that the epiphytes studied rely on FWU to maintain positive water balance in the dry season and that increases in dry periods in the TMCF may be detrimental to these common members of the epiphyte community.

The influence of trees on the thermal environment and behaviour of grazing heifers in Brazilian Midwest.

PubMed

Lopes, Luciano Bastos; Eckstein, Camila; Pina, Douglas Santos; Carnevalli, Roberta Aparecida

2016-04-01

The intensification of the livestock production system has gained prominence over the last decades. In addition to the reduction of grazing areas and increased productivity per hectare, the intercropping involving forest tree species and ruminants has been established as a sustainable production model, generating income and valuation of natural capital. Besides the social, economic, and environmental aspects, the animal welfare is a noteworthy factor. The objective of this study was to evaluate the microclimatic conditions in an open-pasture and in silvopastoral systems, considering the Temperature Humidity Index (THI) and alterations in animal behavior. Three different pasture arrangements were analyzed in this study: total absence of trees in an open-pasture (ArrA), presence of peripheral trees (Eucalyptus spp.) along the border fences (ArrB), and an intensive wooded area aggregated with pasture (ArrC). A herd of 24 crossbreed heifers (3/4 and 7/8 Holstein-Girolando breed) was evaluated. Behavior data were collected every 15 min starting at 08 h00 with readings ending at 16 h00. THI was used to evaluate the environmental comfort. The THI found in the system with open-pasture and in the two systems with silvopastoral arrangement reached critical levels. The two arrangements with eucalyptus rows were not capable of eliminating heat stress in the conditions found in the north region of Mato Grosso State although better conditions were obtained under the tree canopy. The differences between the microclimatic variables for the three arrangements modified the behavior of the animals regarding their location and activity, except for water consumption.

[Environmental Education Units.] Photography for Kids. Vacant Lot Studies. Contour Mapping.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Minneapolis Independent School District 275, Minn.

Techniques suitable for use with elementary school students when studying field environment are described in these four booklets. Techniques for photography (construction of simple cameras, printing on blueprint and photographic paper, use of simple commercial cameras, development of exposed film); for measuring microclimatic factors (temperature,…

Snowpack spatial variability: Towards understanding its effect on remote sensing measurements and snow slope stability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marshall, Hans-Peter

The distribution of water in the snow-covered areas of the world is an important climate change indicator, and it is a vital component of the water cycle. At local and regional scales, the snow water equivalent (SWE), the amount of liquid water a given area of the snowpack represents, is very important for water resource management, flood forecasting, and prediction of available hydropower energy. Measurements from only a few automatic weather stations, such as the SNOTEL network, or sparse manual snowpack measurements are typically extrapolated for estimating SWE over an entire basin. Widespread spatial variability in the distribution of SWE and snowpack stratigraphy at local scales causes large errors in these basin estimates. Remote sensing measurements offer a promising alternative, due to their large spatial coverage and high temporal resolution. Although snow cover extent can currently be estimated from remote sensing data, accurately quantifying SWE from remote sensing measurements has remained difficult, due to a high sensitivity to variations in grain size and stratigraphy. In alpine snowpacks, the large degree of spatial variability of snowpack properties and geometry, caused by topographic, vegetative, and microclimatic effects, also makes prediction of snow avalanches very difficult. Ground-based radar and penetrometer measurements can quickly and accurately characterize snowpack properties and SWE in the field. A portable lightweight radar was developed, and allows a real-time estimate of SWE to within 10%, as well as measurements of depths of all major density transitions within the snowpack. New analysis techniques developed in this thesis allow accurate estimates of mechanical properties and an index of grain size to be retrieved from the SnowMicroPenetrometer. These two tools together allow rapid characterization of the snowpack's geometry, mechanical properties, and SWE, and are used to guide a finite element model to study the stress distribution on a slope. The ability to accurately characterize snowpack properties at much higher resolutions and spatial extent than previously possible will hopefully help lead to a more complete understanding of spatial variability, its effect on remote sensing measurements and snow slope stability, and result in improvements in avalanche prediction and accuracy of SWE estimates from space.

Random Distribution Pattern and Non-adaptivity of Genome Size in a Highly Variable Population of Festuca pallens

PubMed Central

Šmarda, Petr; Bureš, Petr; Horová, Lucie

2007-01-01

Background and Aims The spatial and statistical distribution of genome sizes and the adaptivity of genome size to some types of habitat, vegetation or microclimatic conditions were investigated in a tetraploid population of Festuca pallens. The population was previously documented to vary highly in genome size and is assumed as a model for the study of the initial stages of genome size differentiation. Methods Using DAPI flow cytometry, samples were measured repeatedly with diploid Festuca pallens as the internal standard. Altogether 172 plants from 57 plots (2·25 m2), distributed in contrasting habitats over the whole locality in South Moravia, Czech Republic, were sampled. The differences in DNA content were confirmed by the double peaks of simultaneously measured samples. Key Results At maximum, a 1·115-fold difference in genome size was observed. The statistical distribution of genome sizes was found to be continuous and best fits the extreme (Gumbel) distribution with rare occurrences of extremely large genomes (positive-skewed), as it is similar for the log-normal distribution of the whole Angiosperms. Even plants from the same plot frequently varied considerably in genome size and the spatial distribution of genome sizes was generally random and unautocorrelated (P > 0·05). The observed spatial pattern and the overall lack of correlations of genome size with recognized vegetation types or microclimatic conditions indicate the absence of ecological adaptivity of genome size in the studied population. Conclusions These experimental data on intraspecific genome size variability in Festuca pallens argue for the absence of natural selection and the selective non-significance of genome size in the initial stages of genome size differentiation, and corroborate the current hypothetical model of genome size evolution in Angiosperms (Bennetzen et al., 2005, Annals of Botany 95: 127–132). PMID:17565968

Green-tree retention in harvest units: Boon or bust for biodiversity?

Treesearch

Jonathan Thompson

2007-01-01

In response to societal concerns about clearcutting in the Pacific Northwest, structural or green-tree retention is now an integral part of harvest prescriptions on federal lands. However, the benefits of different levels or patterns of retention for the ecological, microclimatic, and aesthetic attributes of resulting forest stands remain speculative.

Prescribed fire and timber harvest effects on terrestrial salamander abundance, detectability, and microhabitat use

Treesearch

Katherine M. O' Donnell; Frank R. Thompson; Raymond D. Semlitsch

2015-01-01

Prescribed fire and timber harvest are anthropogenic disturbances that modify resource availability and ecosystem structure, and can affect wildlife both directly and indirectly. Terrestrial salamanders are effective indicators of forest health due to their high abundance and sensitivity to microclimatic conditions. Given their ecological importance, it is critical to...

Vegetation and soil restoration on highly impacted campsites in the Eagle Cap Wilderness, Oregon

Treesearch

David N. Cole; David R. Spildie

2007-01-01

We assessed the effectiveness of planting techniques (seeding and transplanting) and restoration treatments designed to improve the physical, biological, and chemical properties of soils and ameliorate microclimatic conditions on six closed campsites in subalpine forests. Restoration treatments included scarification, soil amendment with organic matter, compost and...

Microclimatic performance of a free-air warming and CO2 enrichment experiment in windy Wyoming, USA

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

In order to predict and plan for global changing climate experiments are being conducted in many countries, but few have monitored the effects of the climate change treatments (warming, elevated CO2) on the ecologically critical experimental plot microclimate. During three years of an eight year stu...

Decreased carbon limitation of litter respiration in a mortality-affected pinon-juniper woodland

Treesearch

Erin Berryman; John D. Marshall; Thom Rahn; Marcie Litvak; John Butnor

2013-01-01

Microbial respiration depends on microclimatic variables and carbon (C) substrate availability, all of which are altered when ecosystems experience major disturbance. Widespread tree mortality, currently affecting pinon-juniper ecosystems in southwestern North America, may affect C substrate availability in several ways, for example, via litterfall pulses and loss of...

A summary of white pine blister rust research in the Lake States.

Treesearch

Ralph L. Anderson

1973-01-01

Summarizes white pine blister rust research in the Lake States and present status of knowledge. Important microclimatic relations are described. Antibiotics are not effective, whereas pruning provides some control. Genetic resistance shows much promise but may be complicated by pathogenic races. The effectiveness of ribes eradication is open to question.

Edaphic and microclimatic controls over permafrost response to fire in interior Alaska

Treesearch

D.R. Nossov; M.T. Jorgenson; K. Kielland; M. Kanevskiy

2013-01-01

Discontinuous permafrost in the North American boreal forest is strongly influenced by the effects of ecological succession on the accumulation of surface organic matter, making permafrost vulnerable to degradation resulting from fire disturbance. To assess factors affecting permafrost degradation after wildfire, we compared vegetation composition and soil properties...

Variations in chemical sexual signals of Psammodromus algirus lizards along an elevation gradient may reflect altitudinal variation in microclimatic conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martín, José; Javier Zamora-Camacho, Francisco; Reguera, Senda; López, Pilar; Moreno-Rueda, Gregorio

2017-04-01

Chemical signals used in intraspecific communication are expected to evolve or to show phenotipic plasticity to maximize efficacy in the climatic conditions of a given environment. Elevational environmental gradients in mountains provide a good opportunity to test this hypothesis by examining variation in characteristics of signals in species found across different elevations with different climatic conditions. We analyzed by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) the lipophilic fraction of the femoral gland secretions of male lizards Psammodromus algirus (Fam. Lacertidae) from six localities located along a 2200 m elevational gradient at Sierra Nevada Mountains (SE Spain). There was elevational clinal variation in climatic variables, number of femoral pores and in the relative proportions of some classes of compounds (i.e., ethyl esters of fatty acids, waxy esters, and aldehydes) but not others. We discuss how this variation would result in different physicochemical properties of the entire femoral secretion, which might help optimize the efficacy of chemical signals under the particular microclimatic conditions at each elevation.

Variations in chemical sexual signals of Psammodromus algirus lizards along an elevation gradient may reflect altitudinal variation in microclimatic conditions.

PubMed

Martín, José; Javier Zamora-Camacho, Francisco; Reguera, Senda; López, Pilar; Moreno-Rueda, Gregorio

2017-04-01

Chemical signals used in intraspecific communication are expected to evolve or to show phenotipic plasticity to maximize efficacy in the climatic conditions of a given environment. Elevational environmental gradients in mountains provide a good opportunity to test this hypothesis by examining variation in characteristics of signals in species found across different elevations with different climatic conditions. We analyzed by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) the lipophilic fraction of the femoral gland secretions of male lizards Psammodromus algirus (Fam. Lacertidae) from six localities located along a 2200 m elevational gradient at Sierra Nevada Mountains (SE Spain). There was elevational clinal variation in climatic variables, number of femoral pores and in the relative proportions of some classes of compounds (i.e., ethyl esters of fatty acids, waxy esters, and aldehydes) but not others. We discuss how this variation would result in different physicochemical properties of the entire femoral secretion, which might help optimize the efficacy of chemical signals under the particular microclimatic conditions at each elevation.

Bioprotection and disturbance: Seaweed, microclimatic stability and conditions for mechanical weathering in the intertidal zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coombes, Martin A.; Naylor, Larissa A.; Viles, Heather A.; Thompson, Richard C.

2013-11-01

As well as their destructive roles, plants, animals and microorganisms contribute to geomorphology and ecology via direct and indirect bioprotection, which can reduce weathering and erosion. For example, indirect bioprotection can operate via biotic influences on microclimate whereby physical decay processes associated with fluctuations in temperature and moisture (salt crystallization, thermal fatigue and wetting-drying), are limited. In the intertidal zone, the spatial and temporal distribution of macroalgae (seaweeds) is patchy, related to physical and ecological conditions for colonization and growth, and the nature and frequency of natural and anthropogenic disturbance. We examined the influence of seaweed canopies (Fucus spp.) on near-surface microclimate and, by implication, on conditions for mechanical rock decay and under-canopy ecology. Monitoring on hard artificial coastal structures in South West England, UK, built from limestone and concrete showed that both the range and maxima of daily summertime temperatures were significantly lower, by an average of 56% and 25%, respectively, in areas colonized by seaweed compared to experimentally cleared areas. Short-term microclimatic variability (minutes-hours) was also significantly reduced, by an average of 78% for temperature and 71% for humidity, under algal canopies during low-tide events. Using seaweed as an example, we develop a conceptual model of the relationship between biological cover and microclimate in the intertidal zone. Disturbance events that remove or drastically reduce seaweed cover mediate shifts between relatively stable and unstable states with respect to mechanical decay and ecological stress associated with heat and desiccation. In urban coastal environments where disturbance may be frequent, facilitating the establishment and recovery of canopy-forming species on rocks and engineered structures could enhance the durability of construction materials as well as support conservation, planning and policy targets for biodiversity enhancement.

Assessing the accuracy of globe thermometer method in predicting outdoor mean radiant temperature under Malaysia tropical microclimate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khrit, N. G.; Alghoul, M. A.; Sopian, K.; Lahimer, A. A.; Elayeb, O. K.

2017-11-01

Assessing outdoor human thermal comfort and urban climate quality require experimental investigation of microclimatic conditions and their variations in open urban spaces. For this, it is essential to provide quantitative information on air temperature, humidity, wind velocity and mean radiant temperature. These parameters can be quantified directly except mean radiant temperature (Tmrt). The most accurate method to quantify Tmrt is integral radiation measurements (3-D shortwave and long-wave) which require using expensive radiometer instruments. To overcome this limitation the well-known globe thermometer method was suggested to calculate Tmrt. The aim of this study was to assess the possibility of using indoor globe thermometer method in predicting outdoor mean radiant temperature under Malaysia tropical microclimate. Globe thermometer method using small and large sizes of black-painted copper globes (50mm, 150mm) were used to estimate Tmrt and compare it with the reference Tmrt estimated by integral radiation method. The results revealed that the globe thermometer method considerably overestimated Tmrt during the middle of the day and slightly underestimated it in the morning and late evening. The difference between the two methods was obvious when the amount of incoming solar radiation was high. The results also showed that the effect of globe size on the estimated Tmrt is mostly small. Though, the estimated Tmrt by the small globe showed a relatively large amount of scattering caused by rapid changes in radiation and wind speed.

Low-Wind and Other Microclimatic Factors in Near-road Black Carbon Variability: A Case Study and Assessment Implications

EPA Science Inventory

Airborne black carbon from urban traffic is a climate forcing agent and has been associated with health risk to near-road populations. In this paper, we describe a case study of black carbon concentration and compositional variability at and near a traffic-laden multi-lane highw...

The patch mosaic and ecological decomposition across spatial scales in a managed landscape of northern Wisconsin, USA

Treesearch

Sari C. ​Saunders; Jiquan Chen; Thomas D. Drummer; Thomas R. Crow; Kimberley D. Brosofske; Eric J. Gustafson

2002-01-01

Understanding landscape organization across scales is vital for determining the impacts of management and retaining structurally and functionally diverse ecosystems. We studied the relationships of a functional variable, decomposition, to microclimatic, vegetative and structural features at multiple scales in two distinct landscapes of northern Wisconsin, USA. We hoped...

Seedling growth and heavy metal accumulation of candidate woody species for revegetating Korean mine spoils

Treesearch

Kyung Won Seo; Yowhan Son; Charles C. Rhoades; Nam Jin Noh; Jin Woo Koo; Jeong-Gyu Kim

2008-01-01

Selecting plant species that can overcome harsh soil and microclimatic conditions and speed the recovery of degraded minelands remains a worldwide restoration challenge. This study evaluated the potential of three woody species and various organic and inorganic fertilization treatments for revegetating abandoned metalliferous mines in Korea. We compared survival,...

Thermal regimes and snowpack relations of periglacial talus slopes, Sierra Nevada, California, USA.

Treesearch

Constance I Millar; Robert D. Westfall; Diane L. Delany

2014-01-01

Thermal regimes of eight periglacial talus slopes, at contrasting elevations, aspects, and substrates, in the Sierra Nevada, California, had complex microclimatic patterns partially decoupled from external conditions. Over three years, warm seasons showed mean talus matrix temperatures and daily variances lower than surfaces and cooler than free-air; talus surface and...

Forest floor temperature and relative humidity following timber harvesting in southern New England, USA

Treesearch

Robert T. Brooks; Thomas D. Kyker-Snowman

2008-01-01

Forest amphibians, especially salamanders, prefer forests with shaded, cool, and moist forest floors. Timber harvesting opens the forest canopy and exposes the forest floor to direct sunlight, which can increase forest floor temperatures and reduce soil moisture. These microclimatic changes can potentially degrade the harvested stand for amphibian habitat or affect...

Microclimatic variation between managed and unmanaged northern hardwood forests in Upper Michigan, USA.

Treesearch

Elizabeth A Nauertz; Thomas R. Crow; John Zasada; Ronald M. Teclaw

2004-01-01

Temperature, light, wind, and precipitation were measured in the understory of managed and unmanaged northern hardwood forests in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan from 1995 through 2001. These measurements provide a baseline of information to compare the microclimate under managed and unmanaged conditions. Extreme climatic events may influence growth and development...

Aspect induced differences in vegetation, soil, and microclimatic characteristics of an Appalachian watershed

Treesearch

Fekedulegn Desta; J.J. Colbert; James S. Rentch; Kurt W. Gottschalk

2004-01-01

This study evaluates and quantifies the variation in vegetation, plant nutrients, and microclimate across four topographic aspects in an Appalachian watershed (39°39'43"N, 79°45'28"W). The study found that the north and east aspects were 27-50% more productive than the west and southwest aspects. Species groups that showed strong...

Light, temperature, and soil moisture responses to elevation, evergreen understory, and small canopy gaps in the southern Appalachians

Treesearch

Barton D. Clinton

2003-01-01

Small canopy openings often alter understory microclimate, leading to changes in forest structure and composition. It is generally accepted that physical changes in the understory (i.e., microclimatic) due to canopy removal drive changes in basic forest processes, particularly seedling recruitment which is intrinsically linked to soil moisture availability, light and,...

Edge-related gradients in microclimate in forest aggregates following structural retention harvests in western Washington

Treesearch

Troy D. Heithecker; Charles B. Halpern

2007-01-01

Aggregated retention is now a common method of regeneration harvest in forest ecosystems managed for both timber and ecological objectives. If residual forest aggregates are to serve as temporary refugia for species sensitive to disturbance or environmental stress, microclimatic conditions must be sufficiently buffered to allow for their persistence. In 1-ha aggregates...

Cavity types and microclimate: implications for ecological, evolutionary, and conservation studies.

PubMed

Amat-Valero, M; Calero-Torralbo, M A; Václav, R; Valera, F

2014-11-01

The abiotic conditions of the immediate environment of organisms are key factors for a better understanding of ecological and evolutionary processes. Yet, information in this regard is biased towards some habitat types, landscapes, and organisms. Here, we present a 2-year comparative study of the microclimatic properties (temperature, relative humidity, and their fluctuation) of three cavity types (nest boxes, cavities in bridges, and burrows in sandy cliffs) in an arid environment. We found marked and consistent months-long differences in microclimate among the three cavity types. Nest boxes were colder than the other cavity types, with temperature oscillations being an order of magnitude higher than in other cavity types. In contrast, microclimate was very stable in burrows and cavities in bridges, the former being generally warmer and drier than the latter. We also discuss the biological implications of microclimatic conditions and its variation in different cavity types by presenting two case studies, namely the temperature-humidity index and water vapor pressure during the hatching period of an endotherm and the chilling period during the diapause of an ectotherm ectoparasite. We stress the need for comparative studies of the same organisms subjected to different microclimates given the important ecological, evolutionary, and conservation implications.

PubMed Central

Valeriani, F.; Cianfanelli, C.; Gianfranceschi, G.; Santucci, S.; Romano Spica, V.

2017-01-01

Summary Indoor Air Quality (IAQ) in libraries is influenced by the presence of specific factors which can impact on both paper storage as well as people health. Microclimatic conditions induce and support a biodiversity pattern involving environmental and anthropic microorganisms. We used a multidisciplinary monitoring model to characterize microflora biodiversity by Next Generation Sequencing (NGS). Biodiversity indexes were adapted to evaluate anthropic vs environmental pollution by combining Shannon mean index (H), species representativeness (EH), human/environmental pollution ratio (SA) to better characterize the NGS output and acquire synthetic information on Indoor Air Microbial Biodiversity (IAMB). Results indicate a frequently low microbial load (IGCM/m3 < 1000) characterized by different species (n = 102), including several cellulose metabolizing bacteria. Workers and visitors appeared a relevant source of microbial contamination. Air biodiversity assayed by NGS seems a promising marker for studying IAQ. PMID:29123371

Effect of weather conditions and presence of visitors on adrenocortical activity in captive African penguins (Spheniscus demersus).

PubMed

Ozella, L; Anfossi, L; Di Nardo, F; Pessani, D

2017-02-01

A number of potential stressors are present in captive environments and it is critically important to identify them in order to improve health and welfare in ex situ animal populations. In this study, we investigated the adrenocortical activity of a colony of African penguins hosted in an immersive zoo in Italy, with respect to the presence of visitors and local microclimatic conditions, using the non-invasive method of assessing faecal glucocorticoid metabolites (FGMs). The penguins' exhibit is a large naturalistic outdoor enclosure, which closely reproduces the natural habitat of this species. Data collection took place from the beginning of June to the end of August 2014, during the period of maximum flow of visitors. We carried out 12 sampling periods, each involving 2 consecutive days; during the first day we counted the visitors and we registered the meteorological data, and on the second day, we collected the faecal samples, which amounted to a total of 285 faecal samples. Our results showed that the number of visitors did not influence the adrenocortical activity of the African penguins. Conversely, the local microclimatic conditions did influence the physiological stress on these birds. We found that an increase of the daily mean temperature induced a significant increase in FGM concentrations, although humidity and wind speed had a moderating effect on temperature and reduced the heat-induced stress. Moreover, we calculated two climatic indices, commonly used to assess the thermal discomfort in animals, namely the THI (Temperature-Humidity Index) and WCI (Wind Chill Index), and we detected a positive relationship between their values and the FGM levels, demonstrating that these indices could be useful indicators of weather discomfort in African penguins. Our study shows that the simulating naturalistic conditions could have significant benefits for zoo animals, such as reducing the negative effect of visitors. Nevertheless, it should be taken into account where the zoological facility is located and if the local microclimatic conditions are compatible with the hosted species, to ensure that they do not differ greatly from their natural habitat. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Non-structural origins of asymmetric topography in semi-arid environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richardson, P. W.; Perron, T.; Miller, S. R.

2012-12-01

Geoscientists have long noted that landscapes in some regions have pole-facing slopes that are steeper than equator-facing slopes. In some cases, the asymmetry has a simple structural cause, such as slopes that form parallel to bedrock strata, but in others, the absence of obvious structural controls and the consistent pole-equator orientation of the asymmetry suggest that different microclimates on opposing slopes may be the cause. Compelling as the microclimatic correlation may be, it has not been demonstrated how microclimatic effects can influence long-term landscape evolution sufficiently to generate asymmetric topography. Two conflicting hypotheses that depend on microclimates have been proposed. In one hypothesis, a microclimate-induced contrast in the efficiency of erosion processes, such as channel incision, creates a difference in erosion rates on opposing slopes that drives drainage divide migration until the slope asymmetry compensates for the difference in erosional efficiency. In the other, more popular hypothesis, the asymmetric erosional efficiency is not a sufficient condition. Instead, faster sediment aggradation at the foot of more efficiently eroding slopes forces axial streams to undercut the opposing slopes, eventually creating an asymmetry in steepness. We seek to determine whether undercutting is a necessary mechanism, and focus our efforts on understanding the mechanisms responsible for the topographic asymmetry at Gabilan Mesa, CA, a landscape with a high degree of asymmetry and a simple underlying lithology. We investigate the long-term topographic consequences of these mechanisms with a landscape evolution model. In the first set of model experiments, we explore the effects of aspect-dependent differences in the efficiency of soil creep, the magnitude of a channel incision threshold, and runoff production. The second model experiment includes undercutting of slopes in response to lateral base level migration. We examined which mechanism most accurately matches the observed topography of Gabilan Mesa, in terms of both the degree of slope asymmetry and other characteristics, including the degree of valley incision, mean gradient, and relief. Both the erosional efficiency model and the undercutting model are capable of producing landscapes with the same degree of asymmetry as Gabilan Mesa while also reproducing the other topographic characteristics. When paired with field evidence that rills and gullies are more abundant on equator-facing slopes, we believe that a discrepancy in either channel incision thresholds or runoff production may be enough to cause the observed topographic asymmetry at Gabilan Mesa without the aid of undercutting.

Microclimatic and soil moisture responses to gap formation in coastal Douglas-fir forests

Treesearch

Andrew N Gray; Thomas A Spies; Mark J Easter

2002-01-01

The effects of gap formation on solar radiation, soil and air temperature, and soil moisture were studied in mature coniferous forests of the Pacific Northwest, U.S.A. Measurements were taken over a 6-year period in closed-canopy areas and recently created gaps in four stands of mature (90–140 years) and old-growth (>400 years) Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga...

Calibration of the physiological equivalent temperature index for three different climatic regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krüger, E.; Rossi, F.; Drach, P.

2017-07-01

In human biometeorology, the integration of several microclimatic variables as a combined index facilitates the understanding of how users perceive thermal environments. Indices, such as the physiological equivalent temperature (PET) index, translate the combined effects of meteorological variables on humans in terms of thermal stress or comfort and serve as important aids to climate-responsive urban and regional planning as well as heat stress and thermal comfort analyses. However, there is a need for adjusting proposed comfort/stress ranges of a given index when using it in different climatic contexts. The purpose of this study is to present a preliminary calibration procedure for the PET index for three different climatic regions: Curitiba, Brazil, a subtropical location; Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, a tropical city; and Glasgow, UK, a high-latitude location. Field studies have been carried out by the authors according to a similar protocol and using similar equipment, yielding actual thermal sensation votes and microclimate data, post-processed as PET data. The calibration procedure uses exclusively thermal sensation data as reported by pedestrians during outdoor comfort campaigns and concurrent microclimatic data recorded during the interviews. PET comfort/stress classes differ among the three locations and, in general, are less restrictive as in the original ranges proposed by the index developers.

Adaptive microclimatic evolution of the dehydrin 6 gene in wild barley at "Evolution Canyon", Israel.

PubMed

Yang, Zujun; Zhang, Tao; Li, Guangrong; Nevo, Eviatar

2011-12-01

Dehydrins are one of the major stress-induced gene families, and the expression of dehydrin 6 (Dhn6) is strictly related to drought in barley. In order to investigate how the evolution of the Dhn6 gene is associated with adaptation to environmental changes, we examined 48 genotypes of wild barley, Hordeum spontaneum, from "Evolution Canyon" at Mount Carmel, Israel. The Dhn6 sequences of the 48 genotypes were identified, and a recent insertion of 342 bp at 5'UTR was found in the sequences of 11 genotypes. Both nucleotide and haplotype diversity of single nucleotide polymorphism in Dhn6 coding regions were higher on the AS ("African" slope or dry slope) than on the ES ("European" slope or humid slope), and the applied Tajima D and Fu-Li test rejected neutrality of SNP diversity. Expression analysis indicated that the 342 bp insertion at 5'UTR was associated with the earlier up-regulation of Dhn6 after dehydration. The genetic divergence of amino acids sequences indicated significant positive selection of Dhn6 among the wild barley populations. The diversity of Dhn6 in microclimatic divergence slopes suggested that Dhn6 has been subjected to natural selection and adaptively associated with drought resistance of wild barley at "Evolution Canyon".

Microclimate moderates plant responses to macroclimate warming.

PubMed

De Frenne, Pieter; Rodríguez-Sánchez, Francisco; Coomes, David Anthony; Baeten, Lander; Verstraeten, Gorik; Vellend, Mark; Bernhardt-Römermann, Markus; Brown, Carissa D; Brunet, Jörg; Cornelis, Johnny; Decocq, Guillaume M; Dierschke, Hartmut; Eriksson, Ove; Gilliam, Frank S; Hédl, Radim; Heinken, Thilo; Hermy, Martin; Hommel, Patrick; Jenkins, Michael A; Kelly, Daniel L; Kirby, Keith J; Mitchell, Fraser J G; Naaf, Tobias; Newman, Miles; Peterken, George; Petrík, Petr; Schultz, Jan; Sonnier, Grégory; Van Calster, Hans; Waller, Donald M; Walther, Gian-Reto; White, Peter S; Woods, Kerry D; Wulf, Monika; Graae, Bente Jessen; Verheyen, Kris

2013-11-12

Recent global warming is acting across marine, freshwater, and terrestrial ecosystems to favor species adapted to warmer conditions and/or reduce the abundance of cold-adapted organisms (i.e., "thermophilization" of communities). Lack of community responses to increased temperature, however, has also been reported for several taxa and regions, suggesting that "climatic lags" may be frequent. Here we show that microclimatic effects brought about by forest canopy closure can buffer biotic responses to macroclimate warming, thus explaining an apparent climatic lag. Using data from 1,409 vegetation plots in European and North American temperate forests, each surveyed at least twice over an interval of 12-67 y, we document significant thermophilization of ground-layer plant communities. These changes reflect concurrent declines in species adapted to cooler conditions and increases in species adapted to warmer conditions. However, thermophilization, particularly the increase of warm-adapted species, is attenuated in forests whose canopies have become denser, probably reflecting cooler growing-season ground temperatures via increased shading. As standing stocks of trees have increased in many temperate forests in recent decades, local microclimatic effects may commonly be moderating the impacts of macroclimate warming on forest understories. Conversely, increases in harvesting woody biomass--e.g., for bioenergy--may open forest canopies and accelerate thermophilization of temperate forest biodiversity.

Microclimate moderates plant responses to macroclimate warming

PubMed Central

De Frenne, Pieter; Rodríguez-Sánchez, Francisco; Coomes, David Anthony; Baeten, Lander; Verstraeten, Gorik; Vellend, Mark; Bernhardt-Römermann, Markus; Brown, Carissa D.; Brunet, Jörg; Cornelis, Johnny; Decocq, Guillaume M.; Dierschke, Hartmut; Eriksson, Ove; Gilliam, Frank S.; Hédl, Radim; Heinken, Thilo; Hermy, Martin; Hommel, Patrick; Jenkins, Michael A.; Kelly, Daniel L.; Kirby, Keith J.; Mitchell, Fraser J. G.; Naaf, Tobias; Newman, Miles; Peterken, George; Petřík, Petr; Schultz, Jan; Sonnier, Grégory; Van Calster, Hans; Waller, Donald M.; Walther, Gian-Reto; White, Peter S.; Woods, Kerry D.; Wulf, Monika; Graae, Bente Jessen; Verheyen, Kris

2013-01-01

Recent global warming is acting across marine, freshwater, and terrestrial ecosystems to favor species adapted to warmer conditions and/or reduce the abundance of cold-adapted organisms (i.e., “thermophilization” of communities). Lack of community responses to increased temperature, however, has also been reported for several taxa and regions, suggesting that “climatic lags” may be frequent. Here we show that microclimatic effects brought about by forest canopy closure can buffer biotic responses to macroclimate warming, thus explaining an apparent climatic lag. Using data from 1,409 vegetation plots in European and North American temperate forests, each surveyed at least twice over an interval of 12–67 y, we document significant thermophilization of ground-layer plant communities. These changes reflect concurrent declines in species adapted to cooler conditions and increases in species adapted to warmer conditions. However, thermophilization, particularly the increase of warm-adapted species, is attenuated in forests whose canopies have become denser, probably reflecting cooler growing-season ground temperatures via increased shading. As standing stocks of trees have increased in many temperate forests in recent decades, local microclimatic effects may commonly be moderating the impacts of macroclimate warming on forest understories. Conversely, increases in harvesting woody biomass—e.g., for bioenergy—may open forest canopies and accelerate thermophilization of temperate forest biodiversity. PMID:24167287

Tree spatial structure, host composition and resource availability influence mirid density or black pod prevalence in cacao agroforests in Cameroon.

PubMed

Gidoin, Cynthia; Babin, Régis; Bagny Beilhe, Leïla; Cilas, Christian; ten Hoopen, Gerben Martijn; Bieng, Marie Ange Ngo

2014-01-01

Combining crop plants with other plant species in agro-ecosystems is one way to enhance ecological pest and disease regulation mechanisms. Resource availability and microclimatic variation mechanisms affect processes related to pest and pathogen life cycles. These mechanisms are supported both by empirical research and by epidemiological models, yet their relative importance in a real complex agro-ecosystem is still not known. Our aim was thus to assess the independent effects and the relative importance of different variables related to resource availability and microclimatic variation that explain pest and disease occurrence at the plot scale in real complex agro-ecosystems. The study was conducted in cacao (Theobroma cacao) agroforests in Cameroon, where cocoa production is mainly impacted by the mirid bug, Sahlbergella singularis, and black pod disease, caused by Phytophthora megakarya. Vegetation composition and spatial structure, resource availability and pest and disease occurrence were characterized in 20 real agroforest plots. Hierarchical partitioning was used to identify the causal variables that explain mirid density and black pod prevalence. The results of this study show that cacao agroforests can be differentiated on the basis of vegetation composition and spatial structure. This original approach revealed that mirid density decreased when a minimum number of randomly distributed forest trees were present compared with the aggregated distribution of forest trees, or when forest tree density was low. Moreover, a decrease in mirid density was also related to decreased availability of sensitive tissue, independently of the effect of forest tree structure. Contrary to expectations, black pod prevalence decreased with increasing cacao tree abundance. By revealing the effects of vegetation composition and spatial structure on mirids and black pod, this study opens new perspectives for the joint agro-ecological management of cacao pests and diseases at the plot scale, through the optimization of the spatial structure and composition of the vegetation.

Tree Spatial Structure, Host Composition and Resource Availability Influence Mirid Density or Black Pod Prevalence in Cacao Agroforests in Cameroon

PubMed Central

Gidoin, Cynthia; Babin, Régis; Bagny Beilhe, Leïla; Cilas, Christian; ten Hoopen, Gerben Martijn; Bieng, Marie Ange Ngo

2014-01-01

Combining crop plants with other plant species in agro-ecosystems is one way to enhance ecological pest and disease regulation mechanisms. Resource availability and microclimatic variation mechanisms affect processes related to pest and pathogen life cycles. These mechanisms are supported both by empirical research and by epidemiological models, yet their relative importance in a real complex agro-ecosystem is still not known. Our aim was thus to assess the independent effects and the relative importance of different variables related to resource availability and microclimatic variation that explain pest and disease occurrence at the plot scale in real complex agro-ecosystems. The study was conducted in cacao (Theobroma cacao) agroforests in Cameroon, where cocoa production is mainly impacted by the mirid bug, Sahlbergella singularis, and black pod disease, caused by Phytophthora megakarya. Vegetation composition and spatial structure, resource availability and pest and disease occurrence were characterized in 20 real agroforest plots. Hierarchical partitioning was used to identify the causal variables that explain mirid density and black pod prevalence. The results of this study show that cacao agroforests can be differentiated on the basis of vegetation composition and spatial structure. This original approach revealed that mirid density decreased when a minimum number of randomly distributed forest trees were present compared with the aggregated distribution of forest trees, or when forest tree density was low. Moreover, a decrease in mirid density was also related to decreased availability of sensitive tissue, independently of the effect of forest tree structure. Contrary to expectations, black pod prevalence decreased with increasing cacao tree abundance. By revealing the effects of vegetation composition and spatial structure on mirids and black pod, this study opens new perspectives for the joint agro-ecological management of cacao pests and diseases at the plot scale, through the optimization of the spatial structure and composition of the vegetation. PMID:25313514

Microhabitats and canopy cover moderate high summer temperatures in a fragmented Mediterranean landscape.

PubMed

Keppel, Gunnar; Anderson, Sharolyn; Williams, Craig; Kleindorfer, Sonia; O'Connell, Christopher

2017-01-01

Extreme heat events will become more frequent under anthropogenic climate change, especially in Mediterranean ecosystems. Microhabitats can considerably moderate (buffer) the effects of extreme weather events and hence facilitate the persistence of some components of the biodiversity. We investigate the microclimatic moderation provided by two important microhabitats (cavities formed by the leaves of the grass-tree Xanthorrhoea semiplana F.Muell., Xanthorrhoeaceae; and inside the leaf-litter) during the summer of 2015/16 on the Fleurieu Peninsula of South Australia. We placed microsensors inside and outside these microhabitats, as well as above the ground below the forest canopy. Grass-tree and leaf-litter microhabitats significantly buffered against high temperatures and low relative humidity, compared to ground-below-canopy sensors. There was no significant difference between grass-tree and leaf-litter temperatures: in both microhabitats, daily temperature variation was reduced, day temperatures were 1-5°C cooler, night temperatures were 0.5-3°C warmer, and maximum temperatures were up to 14.4°C lower, compared to ground-below-canopy sensors. Grass-tree and leaf-litter microhabitats moderated heat increase at an average rate of 0.24°C temperature per 1°C increase of ambient temperature in the ground-below-canopy microhabitat. The average daily variation in temperature was determined by the type (grass-tree and leaf-litter versus ground-below-canopy) of microhabitat (explaining 67%), the amount of canopy cover and the area of the vegetation fragment (together explaining almost 10% of the variation). Greater canopy cover increased the amount of microclimatic moderation provided, especially in the leaf-litter. Our study highlights the importance of microhabitats in moderating macroclimatic conditions. However, this moderating effect is currently not considered in species distribution modelling under anthropogenic climate change nor in the management of vegetation. This shortcoming will have to be addressed to obtain realistic forecasts of future species distributions and to achieve effective management of biodiversity.

Internal thermotopography and shifts in general thermal balance in man under special heat transfer conditions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gorodinskiy, S. M.; Gramenitskiy, P. M.; Kuznets, Y. I.; Ozerov, O. Y.; Yakovleva, E. V.; Groza, P.; Kozlovskiy, S.; Naremski, Y.

1974-01-01

Thermal regulation for astronauts working in pressure suits in open space provides for protection by a system of artificial heat removal and compensation to counteract possible changes in the heat regulating function of the human body that occur under the complex effects of space flight conditions. Most important of these factors are prolonged weightlessness, prolonged limitation of motor activity, and possible deviations of microclimatic environmental parameters.

Estimation of Mangrove Net Primary Production and Carbon Sequestration service using Light Use Efficiency model in the Sunderban Biosphere region, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sannigrahi, Srikanta; Sen, Somnath; Paul, Saikat

2016-04-01

Net Primary Production (NPP) of mangrove ecosystem and its capacity to sequester carbon from the atmosphere may be used to quantify the regulatory ecosystem services. Three major group of parameters has been set up as BioClimatic Parameters (BCP): (Photosynthetically Active Radiation (PAR), Absorbed PAR (APAR), Fraction of PAR (FPAR), Photochemical Reflectance Index (PRI), Light Use Efficiency (LUE)), BioPhysical Parameters (BPP) :(Normalize Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), scaled NDVI, Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), scaled EVI, Optimised and Modified Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index (OSAVI, MSAVI), Leaf Area Index (LAI)), and Environmental Limiting Parameters (ELP) (Temperature Stress (TS), Land Surface Water Index (LSWI), Normalize Soil Water Index (NSWI), Water Stress Scalar (WS), Inversed WS (iWS) Land Surface Temperature (LST), scaled LST, Vapor Pressure Deficit (VPD), scaled VPD, and Soil Water Deficit Index (SWDI)). Several LUE models namely Carnegie Ames Stanford Approach (CASA), Eddy Covariance - LUE (EC-LUE), Global Production Efficiency Model (GloPEM), Vegetation Photosynthesis Model (VPM), MOD NPP model, Temperature and Greenness Model (TG), Greenness and Radiation model (GR) and MOD17 was adopted in this study to assess the spatiotemporal nature of carbon fluxes. Above and Below Ground Biomass (AGB & BGB) was calculated using field based estimation of OSAVI and NDVI. Microclimatic zonation has been set up to assess the impact of coastal climate on environmental limiting factors. MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) based yearly Gross Primary Production (GPP) and NPP product MOD17 was also tested with LUE based results with standard model validation statistics: Root Mean Square of Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MEA), Bias, Coefficient of Variation (CV) and Coefficient of Determination (R2). The performance of CASA NPP was tested with the ground based NPP with R2 = 0.89 RMSE = 3.28 P = 0.01. Among the all adopted models, EC-LUE and VPM models has explained the maximum variances (>80%) in comparison to the other model. Study result has also showed that the BPP has explained the maximum model variances (>93%) followed by BCP (>65%) and ELP (>50%). Scaled WS, iWS, LST, VPD, NDVI was performed better in a minimum ELP condition whereas surface moisture and wetness was highly correlated with the AGB and NPP (R2 = 0.86 RMSE = 1.83). During this study period (2000-2013), it was found that there was a significantly declining trend (R2 = 0.32 P = 0.05) of annual NPP and the maximum decrease was found in the eastern part where built-up area was mainly accounted for reduction of NPP. BCP are explained higher variances (>80%) in the optimum climatic condition exist along the coastal stretches in comparison to the landward extent (>45%).

Characterizing microclimate in urban malaria transmission settings: a case study from Chennai, India.

PubMed

Cator, Lauren J; Thomas, Shalu; Paaijmans, Krijn P; Ravishankaran, Sangamithra; Justin, Johnson A; Mathai, Manu T; Read, Andrew F; Thomas, Matthew B; Eapen, Alex

2013-03-02

Environmental temperature is an important driver of malaria transmission dynamics. Both the parasite and vector are sensitive to mean ambient temperatures and daily temperature variation. To understand transmission ecology, therefore, it is important to determine the range of microclimatic temperatures experienced by malaria vectors in the field. A pilot study was conducted in the Indian city of Chennai to determine the temperature variation in urban microclimates and characterize the thermal ecology of the local transmission setting. Temperatures were measured in a range of probable indoor and outdoor resting habitats of Anopheles stephensi in two urban slum malaria sites. Mean temperatures and daily temperature fluctuations in local transmission sites were compared with standard temperature measures from the local weather station. The biological implications of the different temperatures were explored using temperature-dependent parasite development models to provide estimates of the extrinsic incubation period (EIP) of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum. Mean daily temperatures within the urban transmission sites were generally warmer than those recorded at the local weather station. The main reason was that night-time temperatures were higher (and hence diurnal temperature ranges smaller) in the urban settings. Mean temperatures and temperature variation also differed between specific resting sites within the transmission environments. Most differences were of the order of 1-3°C but were sufficient to lead to important variation in predicted EIPs and hence, variation in estimates of transmission intensity. Standard estimates of environmental temperature derived from local weather stations do not necessarily provide realistic measures of temperatures within actual transmission environments. Even the small differences in mean temperatures or diurnal temperature ranges reported in this study can lead to large variations in key mosquito and/or parasite life history traits that determine transmission intensity. Greater effort should be directed at quantifying adult mosquito resting behaviour and determining the temperatures actually experienced by mosquitoes and parasites in local transmission environments. In the absence of such highly resolved data, the approach used in the current study provides a framework for improved thermal characterization of transmission settings.

Characterizing microclimate in urban malaria transmission settings: a case study from Chennai, India

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Environmental temperature is an important driver of malaria transmission dynamics. Both the parasite and vector are sensitive to mean ambient temperatures and daily temperature variation. To understand transmission ecology, therefore, it is important to determine the range of microclimatic temperatures experienced by malaria vectors in the field. Methods A pilot study was conducted in the Indian city of Chennai to determine the temperature variation in urban microclimates and characterize the thermal ecology of the local transmission setting. Temperatures were measured in a range of probable indoor and outdoor resting habitats of Anopheles stephensi in two urban slum malaria sites. Mean temperatures and daily temperature fluctuations in local transmission sites were compared with standard temperature measures from the local weather station. The biological implications of the different temperatures were explored using temperature-dependent parasite development models to provide estimates of the extrinsic incubation period (EIP) of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum. Results Mean daily temperatures within the urban transmission sites were generally warmer than those recorded at the local weather station. The main reason was that night-time temperatures were higher (and hence diurnal temperature ranges smaller) in the urban settings. Mean temperatures and temperature variation also differed between specific resting sites within the transmission environments. Most differences were of the order of 1-3°C but were sufficient to lead to important variation in predicted EIPs and hence, variation in estimates of transmission intensity. Conclusions Standard estimates of environmental temperature derived from local weather stations do not necessarily provide realistic measures of temperatures within actual transmission environments. Even the small differences in mean temperatures or diurnal temperature ranges reported in this study can lead to large variations in key mosquito and/or parasite life history traits that determine transmission intensity. Greater effort should be directed at quantifying adult mosquito resting behaviour and determining the temperatures actually experienced by mosquitoes and parasites in local transmission environments. In the absence of such highly resolved data, the approach used in the current study provides a framework for improved thermal characterization of transmission settings. PMID:23452620

Monitoring biodiversity in libraries: a pilot study and perspectives for indoor air quality.

PubMed

Valeriani, F; Cianfanelli, C; Gianfranceschi, G; Santucci, S; Romano Spica, V; Mucci, N

2017-09-01

Indoor Air Quality (IAQ) in libraries is influenced by the presence of specific factors which can impact on both paper storage as well as people health. Microclimatic conditions induce and support a biodiversity pattern involving environmental and anthropic microorganisms. We used a multidisciplinary monitoring model to characterize microflora biodiversity by Next Generation Sequencing (NGS). Biodiversity indexes were adapted to evaluate anthropic vs environmental pollution by combining Shannon mean index (H), species representativeness (E H ), human/environmental pollution ratio (SA) to better characterize the NGS output and acquire synthetic information on Indoor Air Microbial Biodiversity (IAMB). Results indicate a frequently low microbial load (IGCM/m 3 < 1000) characterized by different species (n = 102), including several cellulose metabolizing bacteria. Workers and visitors appeared a relevant source of microbial contamination. Air biodiversity assayed by NGS seems a promising marker for studying IAQ.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Seeley, E.J.

An apple orchard can be a very efficient mechanism for harvesting and storing energy in a usable form. The challenge is to define how the genetic, microclimatic, soil, water and cultural practice interactions limit the productive potential of apple plantings and at the same time to look ahead toward increasing the efficiency of the plant to assume continued increases in productivity for the future. Five papers were presented as summaries of some of the current and past research efforts into the factors affecting apple tree photosynthesis. (DP).

[On prevention of a combined impact of electromagnetic radiation and climatic/weather factors on worker's organism].

PubMed

Rakhmanov, R S; Gadzhiibragimov, D A; Gladilin, A V

2012-01-01

Under conditions of combined exposure of the electromagnetic radiation generated by the PC or the industrial frequency and impact of hot or high-level continental climate to the organism the need to assess microclimatic conditions of open areas and the introduction of preventive nutrition to enhance the body's natural resistance, prevention of obesity and diseases associated with increased blood pressure and the development of coronary heart disease has been established.

Exposure to solar radiation drives organismal vulnerability to climate: Evidence from an intertidal limpet.

PubMed

Chapperon, Coraline; Volkenborn, Nils; Clavier, Jacques; Séité, Sarah; Seabra, Rui; Lima, Fernando P

2016-04-01

Understanding the physiological abilities of organisms to cope with heat stress is critical for predictions of species' distributions in response to climate change. We investigated physiological responses (respiration and heart beat rate) of the ectotherm limpet Patella vulgata to heat stress events during emersion and the role of seasonal and microclimatic acclimatization for individual thermal tolerance limits. Individuals were collected from 5 microhabitats characterized by different exposure to solar radiation in the high intertidal zone of a semi-exposed rocky shore in winter and summer of 2014. Upper thermal tolerance limits (heat coma temperatures - HCTs, and heart rate Arrhenius break temperatures - ABTs) were determined for individuals from each microhabitat in both seasons under laboratory conditions. While we found a clear seasonal acclimatization, i.e., higher HCTs and ABTs in summer than in winter, we did not find evidence for microhabitat-specific responses that would suggest microclimatic acclimatization. However, operative limpet temperatures derived from in-situ temperature measurements suggest that individuals from sun exposed microhabitats have a much narrower thermal safety margins than those from less exposed surfaces or within crevices. Microhabitat specific thermal safety margins caused by high thermal heterogeneity at small spatial scales and the lack of short term acclimatization will likely shape small scale distribution patterns of intertidal species in response to the predicted increase in the frequency and intensity of heat waves. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Matter of Life or Death: Untangling the Coupled Roles of Behavior, Microclimate and Physiological Polymorphism in Governing Vulnerability of Intertidal Snails to Heat Stress

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dong, Y.; Li, X.; Choi, F.; Willams, G.; Somero, G. N.; Helmuth, B.

2016-12-01

Changing patterns of species' biogeographic distributions are driven by cumulative effects of much smaller scale processes. Specifically, vulnerability of animals to thermal stress is the result of physiological sensitivities to body temperature (Tb), local microclimatic conditions, and abilities to anticipate extreme conditions and move to cooler refugia. These variables have rarely been quantified simultaneously over large geographic scales. We analyzed the thermal tolerances of three species of rocky intertidal snails from eight sites spanning 11.5 degrees of latitude along the Chinese coast. Using a biophysical model, we estimated potential Tb in sun-exposed and shaded microhabitats for all species at these sites for 30 years. We then compared maximum predicted Tb against the temperatures at which cardiac function was impaired (Arrhenius Break Temperatures, ABT) and lethal limits were reached (cardiac Flat Line Temperatures, FLT) to calculate thermal Safety Margins (TSM) for normal physiological function (TSMABT) and heat death (TSMFLT). Regular exceedance of FLT in sun-exposed microhabitats was predicted for only one site in the middle of the geographic gradient. However, ABT was exceeded at sun-exposed microhabitats in most sites, suggesting significant physiological impairment for snails that fail to move into the shade. An autocorrelation analysis of snail Tb showed that predictability of extreme temperatures was lowest at the hottest sites, an indication that reliance on behavioral thermoregulation may be a risky strategy. Observed large differences in ABT and FLT among conspecifics emphasize the critical role of physiological polymorphisms in governing the vulnerability of populations to heat stress.

Soil surface organic layers in Arctic Alaska: spatial distribution, rates of formation, and microclimatic effects

USGS Publications Warehouse

Baughman, Carson; Mann, Daniel H.; Verbyla, David L.; Kunz, Michael L.

2015-01-01

Organic layers of living and dead vegetation cover the ground surface in many permafrost landscapes and play important roles in ecosystem processes. These soil surface organic layers (SSOLs) store large amounts of carbon and buffer the underlying permafrost and its contained carbon from changes in aboveground climate. Understanding the dynamics of SSOLs is a prerequisite for predicting how permafrost and carbon stocks will respond to warming climate. Here we ask three questions about SSOLs in a representative area of the Arctic Foothills region of northern Alaska: (1) What environmental factors control the thickness of SSOLs and the carbon they store? (2) How long do SSOLs take to develop on newly stabilized point bars? (3) How do SSOLs affect temperature in the underlying ground? Results show that SSOL thickness and distribution correlate with elevation, drainage area, vegetation productivity, and incoming solar radiation. A multiple regression model based on these correlations can simulate spatial distribution of SSOLs and estimate the organic carbon stored there. SSOLs develop within a few decades after a new, sandy, geomorphic surface stabilizes but require 500–700 years to reach steady state thickness. Mature SSOLs lower the growing season temperature and mean annual temperature of the underlying mineral soil by 8 and 3°C, respectively. We suggest that the proximate effects of warming climate on permafrost landscapes now covered by SSOLs will occur indirectly via climate's effects on the frequency, extent, and severity of disturbances like fires and landslides that disrupt the SSOLs and interfere with their protection of the underlying permafrost.

Spatial models reveal the microclimatic buffering capacity of old-growth forests

PubMed Central

Frey, Sarah J. K.; Hadley, Adam S.; Johnson, Sherri L.; Schulze, Mark; Jones, Julia A.; Betts, Matthew G.

2016-01-01

Climate change is predicted to cause widespread declines in biodiversity, but these predictions are derived from coarse-resolution climate models applied at global scales. Such models lack the capacity to incorporate microclimate variability, which is critical to biodiversity microrefugia. In forested montane regions, microclimate is thought to be influenced by combined effects of elevation, microtopography, and vegetation, but their relative effects at fine spatial scales are poorly known. We used boosted regression trees to model the spatial distribution of fine-scale, under-canopy air temperatures in mountainous terrain. Spatial models predicted observed independent test data well (r = 0.87). As expected, elevation strongly predicted temperatures, but vegetation and microtopography also exerted critical effects. Old-growth vegetation characteristics, measured using LiDAR (light detection and ranging), appeared to have an insulating effect; maximum spring monthly temperatures decreased by 2.5°C across the observed gradient in old-growth structure. These cooling effects across a gradient in forest structure are of similar magnitude to 50-year forecasts of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and therefore have the potential to mitigate climate warming at local scales. Management strategies to conserve old-growth characteristics and to curb current rates of primary forest loss could maintain microrefugia, enhancing biodiversity persistence in mountainous systems under climate warming. PMID:27152339

Spatial models reveal the microclimatic buffering capacity of old-growth forests.

PubMed

Frey, Sarah J K; Hadley, Adam S; Johnson, Sherri L; Schulze, Mark; Jones, Julia A; Betts, Matthew G

2016-04-01

Climate change is predicted to cause widespread declines in biodiversity, but these predictions are derived from coarse-resolution climate models applied at global scales. Such models lack the capacity to incorporate microclimate variability, which is critical to biodiversity microrefugia. In forested montane regions, microclimate is thought to be influenced by combined effects of elevation, microtopography, and vegetation, but their relative effects at fine spatial scales are poorly known. We used boosted regression trees to model the spatial distribution of fine-scale, under-canopy air temperatures in mountainous terrain. Spatial models predicted observed independent test data well (r = 0.87). As expected, elevation strongly predicted temperatures, but vegetation and microtopography also exerted critical effects. Old-growth vegetation characteristics, measured using LiDAR (light detection and ranging), appeared to have an insulating effect; maximum spring monthly temperatures decreased by 2.5°C across the observed gradient in old-growth structure. These cooling effects across a gradient in forest structure are of similar magnitude to 50-year forecasts of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and therefore have the potential to mitigate climate warming at local scales. Management strategies to conserve old-growth characteristics and to curb current rates of primary forest loss could maintain microrefugia, enhancing biodiversity persistence in mountainous systems under climate warming.

Representation of micrometeorological and physiological parameters with numerical models influencing the vineyard ecosystem: the case of Piemonte (Italy).

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andreoli, Valentina; Cassardo, Claudio; Cavalletto, Silvia; Ferrarese, Silvia; Guidoni, Silvia; Mania, Elena; Spanna, Federico

2017-04-01

Grapevine represents worldwide key economic activities, with Europe representing the largest vineyard area in the world (38%). This is also true both for Italy and for its Piemonte region, in which famous and renowned wines (such as Barolo and Barbaresco) are produced. Grapevine productivity depends on several factors including soil fertility, management practices, climate and meteorology. In particular, concerning the latter, there is a need for a reliable assessment of the effects of a changing climate on its yield and quality. However, in this respect, it is essential to understand how and how much climate and meteorology affect grape productivity and quality, since only few studies related to few regions in the world have been produced. In this context, crop models are essential tools for investigating the effects of climate change on crop development and growth via the integration of existing knowledge of crop physiology relating to changing environmental conditions. Nevertheless, crop models were developed and applied mainly for studying the responses to climate change of annual crops (e.g. cereals); whilst appropriate crop models and application of these are still limited for tree crops such as grapevine. The rationale of the study, included in the MACSUR2 JPI FACCE project, is to use the third generation land surface model UTOPIA (University of TOrino model of land Process Interaction with Atmosphere) [1], in order to evaluate all components of hydrological and energy budget, as well as soil and canopy parameters, on a specific subset of land use, the vineyards. A preliminary step of this work has been to compare the datasets resulted from the calculations made by the UTOPIA and some experimental datasets acquired within vineyards by our team in the past experiments. The reason for such control is to ensure that UTOPIA outputs could be considered as sufficiently representative of the climatology of vineyards. Thus, some Piedmontese vineyards were selected, each one characterized by same climatic but different microclimatic conditions, in which measurements of a wide number of variables were performed in the vegetative seasons (such as in the experiment MASGRAPE). Subsequently, in this study, the results of additional simulations performed using the freely available global database GLDAS (Global Land Data Assimilation System) were compared with those of the simulations driven by observations, in order to check if the model was still able to reproduce the microclimatic characteristics of the vineyards. This preliminary part of the study gave satisfactory results; thus, we could pass to the phase two of the project. In this phase, using GLDAS database, long term simulations will be carried out with the UTOPIA in order to have output data available on a period of climatic interest (30 years or more). This database could be used in order to perform climatic statistics and assess possible trends in some parameters, eventually to be correlated with grape production. In the talk, the preliminary aspects of this work will be illustrated.

Microclimate landscape design at southern integrated terminal Bandar Tasik Selatan, Kuala Lumpur

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Phin, L. H.; Krisantia, I.

2018-01-01

Bandar Tasik Selatan is the integrated transport terminal has high energy consuming, high carbon emission and poor linkage. However, microclimate can be reduced through landscape design. This paper is a study to achieve energy efficiency and improve microclimate in the urban area. The research area is at Southern integrated terminal Bandar Tasik Selatan Kuala Lumpur Malaysia. It is carried out through a case study and microclimate analyzed using System Modeling method. System modelling using in this research is system energy budget of the microclimate at a site is a balance between the radiant energy supplied and the energy removed by all consumers. The finding indicated the microclimatic components that can be modified through landscape design are solar radiation, wind and precipitation can create thermal comfort, energy efficiency and others benefits.Through this research, provide more green space to achieve energy efficiency and improve microclimate of the site, introducing vertical landscape and proper planting selection to improve air quality, introducing green energy as part of the source of power supply and to promote integration of terminal building and rail systems by unify them using softscape

Human migration in solar homes for seasonal comfort and energy conservation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Crowther, R.

1987-01-01

Every new and existing dwelling can benefit from spaces and migratory pathways that are responsive to and aligned with the natural energies of the building environment. Conceptual planning and architectural design attuned to these natural energies can increase comfort, energy conservation, and indoor and outdoor use of space. Of special importance is responsiveness to daily and seasonal microclimatic changes. The aim of this article is to provide themes and examples especially related to human migration patterns as determined by activity and response to climate.

Heat stress assessment in artistic glass units

PubMed Central

d’AMBROSIO ALFANO, Francesca Romana; PALELLA, Boris Igor; RICCIO, Giuseppe; BARTALINI, Massimo; STRAMBI, Fabio; MALCHAIRE, Jacques

2017-01-01

Heat stress in glass industry is mainly studied in large and highly mechanized manufacturing Units. To the contrary, few studies were carried out in small factories specialized in hand-made products. To stress the need of combined objective and medical surveys in these environments, this paper deals with a simultaneous climatic and physiological investigation of working conditions in artistic crystal glass factories in Tuscany (Italy). The microclimatic monitoring, through a continuous survey has been carried out in early spring. The main physiological parameters (metabolic rate, heart rate, tympanic temperature and water loss) were measured over the whole shifts. The results show that, despite the arduousness of the working conditions, the heat stress levels are physiologically tolerable. The predictions made using the PHS model at the Analysis level described in ISO 15265 agree closely to the observed values, validating the use of PHS model in these conditions. This model was then used to analyse what is likely to be the situation during the summer. It is concluded that the heat constraint will be very high and that some steps must be taken from the spring to monitor closely the exposed workers in the summer and take measures to prevent any heat accident. PMID:29109359

Heat stress assessment in artistic glass units.

PubMed

d'AMBROSIO Alfano, Francesca Romana; Palella, Boris Igor; Riccio, Giuseppe; Bartalini, Massimo; Strambi, Fabio; Malchaire, Jacques

2018-04-07

Heat stress in glass industry is mainly studied in large and highly mechanized manufacturing Units. To the contrary, few studies were carried out in small factories specialized in hand-made products. To stress the need of combined objective and medical surveys in these environments, this paper deals with a simultaneous climatic and physiological investigation of working conditions in artistic crystal glass factories in Tuscany (Italy). The microclimatic monitoring, through a continuous survey has been carried out in early spring. The main physiological parameters (metabolic rate, heart rate, tympanic temperature and water loss) were measured over the whole shifts. The results show that, despite the arduousness of the working conditions, the heat stress levels are physiologically tolerable. The predictions made using the PHS model at the Analysis level described in ISO 15265 agree closely to the observed values, validating the use of PHS model in these conditions. This model was then used to analyse what is likely to be the situation during the summer. It is concluded that the heat constraint will be very high and that some steps must be taken from the spring to monitor closely the exposed workers in the summer and take measures to prevent any heat accident.

Evaluation of working conditions of workers engaged in tending horses.

PubMed

Nowakowicz-Dębek, Bożena; Pawlak, Halina; Wlazło, Łukasz; Kuna-Broniowska, Izabela; Bis-Wencel, Hanna; Buczaj, Agnieszka; Maksym, Piotr

2014-01-01

A growing interest in the horse business has resulted in the increased engagement of many people in this area, and the health problems occurring among workers create the need to search for prophylactic measures. The objective of the study was evaluation of the level of exposure to air pollution in a stable, and estimation of the degree of work load among workers engaged in tending horses. The study was conducted twice, during the winter season, in a stable maintaining race horses, and in a social room. In order to evaluate workers' exposure, air samples were collected by the aspiration method. After the incubation of material, the total number of bacteria and fungi in the air was determined, as well as the number of aerobic mesophilic and thermophilic bacteria, expressed as the number of colony forming units per cubic meter of air (CFU/m3). The measurement of total dust concentration in the air was also performed, simultaneously with the measurement of microclimatic parameters. The study of work load also covered the measurement of energy expenditure, evaluation of static physical load, and monotony of movements performed. The stable may be considered as a workplace with considerable risk of the occurrence of unfavourable health effects.

Raman spectroscopy detection of biomolecules in biocrusts from differing environmental conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miralles, I.; Jorge-Villar, S. E.; van Wesemael, B.; Lázaro, R.

2017-01-01

Lichens and cyanobacteria colonize inhospitable places covering a wide climate range due to their different survival strategies, such as the synthesis of protective biomolecules. The effect of ecological factors on the synthesis of biomolecules has not been widely analysed. This study aimed to assess the effects of four factors (species, microclimate, seasonality and hydration state) and their interactions on the biomolecule frequency detected by Raman Spectroscopy. We included cyanobacterial biocrusts, and the lichens Diploschistes diacapsis, Squamarina lentigera, and Lepraria isidiata; two contrasted microclimates (typical and marginal), two contrasted seasons (hot and dry vs cool and wet) and two hydration states (dry and wet). ;Species; was the most influential factor in the identity and frequency of the main biomolecules. Microclimatic differences in the range of the local specific habitats only influenced the biomolecules in cyanobacteria. There was a quadruple interaction among the factors, the effects being different mainly depending on the species. At D. diacapsis, the production of their main biomolecules depended on microclimate, although it also depended on seasonality. Nevertheless, in L. isidiata and S. lentigera microclimatic differences did not significantly affect the production of biomolecules. In the lichen species, the microhabitats exposed to relatively larger incident radiation did not show significantly larger relative frequency of photoprotective biomolecules. No clear connection between higher production of oxalates and drier microhabitats was found, suggesting that the synthesis of oxalates is not related to water reserve strategy. The pros and cons of monitor biomolecules in biocrust by Raman spectrometry were also discussed.

The Influence of Solar Power Plants on Microclimatic Conditions and the Biotic Community in Chilean Desert Environments.

PubMed

Suuronen, Anna; Muñoz-Escobar, Christian; Lensu, Anssi; Kuitunen, Markku; Guajardo Celis, Natalia; Espinoza Astudillo, Pablo; Ferrú, Marcos; Taucare-Ríos, Andrés; Miranda, Marcelo; Kukkonen, Jussi V K

2017-10-01

The renewable energy sector is growing at a rapid pace in northern Chile and the solar energy potential is one of the best worldwide. Therefore, many types of solar power plant facilities are being built to take advantage of this renewable energy resource. Solar energy is considered a clean source of energy, but there are potential environmental effects of solar technology, such as landscape fragmentation, extinction of local biota, microclimate changes, among others. To be able to minimize environmental impacts of solar power plants, it is important to know what kind of environmental conditions solar power plants create. This study provides information about abiotic and biotic conditions in the vicinity of photovoltaic solar power plants. Herein, the influence of these power plants as drivers of new microclimate conditions and arthropods diversity composition in the Atacama Desert was evaluated. Microclimatic conditions between panel mounts was found to be more extreme than in the surrounding desert yet beneath the panels temperature is lower and relative humidity higher than outside the panel area. Arthropod species composition was altered in fixed-mount panel installations. In contrast, solar tracking technology showed less influence on microclimate and species composition between Sun and Shade in the power plant. Shady conditions provided a refuge for arthropod species in both installation types. For example, Dipterans were more abundant in the shade whereas Solifugaes were seldom present in the shade. The presented findings have relevance for the sustainable planning and construction of solar power plants.

The Influence of Solar Power Plants on Microclimatic Conditions and the Biotic Community in Chilean Desert Environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suuronen, Anna; Muñoz-Escobar, Christian; Lensu, Anssi; Kuitunen, Markku; Guajardo Celis, Natalia; Espinoza Astudillo, Pablo; Ferrú, Marcos; Taucare-Ríos, Andrés; Miranda, Marcelo; Kukkonen, Jussi V. K.

2017-10-01

The renewable energy sector is growing at a rapid pace in northern Chile and the solar energy potential is one of the best worldwide. Therefore, many types of solar power plant facilities are being built to take advantage of this renewable energy resource. Solar energy is considered a clean source of energy, but there are potential environmental effects of solar technology, such as landscape fragmentation, extinction of local biota, microclimate changes, among others. To be able to minimize environmental impacts of solar power plants, it is important to know what kind of environmental conditions solar power plants create. This study provides information about abiotic and biotic conditions in the vicinity of photovoltaic solar power plants. Herein, the influence of these power plants as drivers of new microclimate conditions and arthropods diversity composition in the Atacama Desert was evaluated. Microclimatic conditions between panel mounts was found to be more extreme than in the surrounding desert yet beneath the panels temperature is lower and relative humidity higher than outside the panel area. Arthropod species composition was altered in fixed-mount panel installations. In contrast, solar tracking technology showed less influence on microclimate and species composition between Sun and Shade in the power plant. Shady conditions provided a refuge for arthropod species in both installation types. For example, Dipterans were more abundant in the shade whereas Solifugaes were seldom present in the shade. The presented findings have relevance for the sustainable planning and construction of solar power plants.

Microclimate and the zoonotic cycle of tick-borne encephalitis virus in Switzerland.

PubMed

Burri, C; Bastic, V; Maeder, G; Patalas, E; Gern, L

2011-05-01

The focal distribution of tick-borne encephalitis virus (TBEV; Flaviviridae, Flavivirus) appears to depend mainly on cofeeding transmission between infected Ixodes ricinus L. nymphs and uninfected larvae. To better understand the role of cofeeding ticks in the transmission of TBEV, we investigated tick infestation of rodents and the influence of microclimate on the seasonality of questing I. ricinus ticks. A 3-yr study was carried out at four sites, including two confirmed TBEV foci. Free-living ticks and rodents were collected monthly, and microclimatic data were recorded. A decrease in questing nymph density was observed in 2007, associated with low relative humidity and high temperatures in spring. One site, Thun, did not show this decrease, probably because of microclimatic conditions in spring that favored the questing nymph population. During the same year, the proportion of rodents carrying cofeeding ticks was lower at sites where the questing nymph density decreased, although the proportion of infested hosts was similar among years. TBEV was detected in 0.1% of questing ticks, and in 8.6 and 50.0% of larval ticks feeding on two rodents. TBEV was detected at all but one site, where the proportion of hosts with cofeeding ticks was the lowest. The proportion of hosts with cofeeding ticks seemed to be one of the factors that distinguished a TBEV focus from a non-TBEV focus. The enzootic cycle of TBEV might be disrupted when dry and hot springs occur during consecutive years.

Diagnosis of abnormal patterns in multivariate microclimate monitoring: a case study of an open-air archaeological site in Pompeii (Italy).

PubMed

Merello, Paloma; García-Diego, Fernando-Juan; Zarzo, Manuel

2014-08-01

Chemometrics has been applied successfully since the 1990s for the multivariate statistical control of industrial processes. A new area of interest for these tools is the microclimatic monitoring of cultural heritage. Sensors record climatic parameters over time and statistical data analysis is performed to obtain valuable information for preventive conservation. A case study of an open-air archaeological site is presented here. A set of 26 temperature and relative humidity data-loggers was installed in four rooms of Ariadne's house (Pompeii). If climatic values are recorded versus time at different positions, the resulting data structure is equivalent to records of physical parameters registered at several points of a continuous chemical process. However, there is an important difference in this case: continuous processes are controlled to reach a steady state, whilst open-air sites undergo tremendous fluctuations. Although data from continuous processes are usually column-centred prior to applying principal components analysis, it turned out that another pre-treatment (row-centred data) was more convenient for the interpretation of components and to identify abnormal patterns. The detection of typical trajectories was more straightforward by dividing the whole monitored period into several sub-periods, because the marked climatic fluctuations throughout the year affect the correlation structures. The proposed statistical methodology is of interest for the microclimatic monitoring of cultural heritage, particularly in the case of open-air or semi-confined archaeological sites. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The terroir of vineyards - climatic variability in an Austrian wine-growing region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gerersdorfer, T.

2010-09-01

The description of a terroir is a concept in viticulture that relates the sensory attributes of wine to the environmental conditions in which the grapes grow. Many factors are involved including climate, soil, cultivar, human practices and all these factors interact manifold. The study area of Carnuntum is a small wine-growing region in the eastern part of Austria. It is rich of Roman remains which play a major role in tourism and the marketing strategies of the wines as well. An interdisciplinary study on the environmental characteristics particularly with regard to growing conditions of grapes was started in this region. The study is concerned with the description of the physiogeographic properties of the region and with the investigation of the dominating viticultural functions. Grape-vines depend on climatic conditions to a high extent. Compared to other influencing factors like soil, climate plays a significant role. In the framework of this interdisciplinary project climatic variability within the Carnuntum wine-growing region is investigated. On the one hand microclimatic variations are influenced by soil type and by canopy management. On the other hand the variability is a result of the topoclimate (altitude, aspect and slope) and therefore relief is a major terroir factor. Results of microclimatic measurements and variations are presented with focus on the interpretation of the relationship between relief, structure of the vineyards and the climatic conditions within the course of a full year period.

Seasonal and Topographic Variation in Net Primary Productivity and Water Use Efficiency in a Southwest Sky Island Fores

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murphy, P.; Minor, R. L.; Sanchez-Canete, E. P.; Potts, D. L.; Barron-Gafford, G.

2016-12-01

Western North American Forests represent an uncertain sink for atmospheric carbon. While understanding of the physical drivers of productivity in these forests has grown in the last decade, the relative influence of topographic position in the complex terrain of montane systems remains understudied. The high-latitude mixed conifer forest ecosystems of the southern Arizona Madrean Sky Islands are characterized by low precipitation, high annual variation in temperature, and heterogeneous topography. Eddy covariance measurements these forests show distinct seasonal trends due to temperature and bi-modal precipitation patterns, but these measurements are unable to resolve potential differences in physiological function on opposing north and south aspects within the footprint of the tower. Most of the year, north aspects receive less energy input due to the oblique angle of incoming solar radiation, leading to a divergence in soil moistures and temperatures. However, overall movement of energy and material is much higher on these north aspects on an annual basis. The implications of these differences for net primary productivity (NPP) and water use efficiency (WUE) are poorly addressed in the literature. We evaluated the relative control that topography has on the physical environment (soil moisture and temperature) and how these factors affect water stress, NPP, and WUE. We combined leaf-level measurements of photosynthesis and transpiration with other physiological and meteorological measurements to determine how the dominant vegetation functions as a result of microclimatic conditions. Initial results from the spring and summer measurement periods suggest topographical differences in microclimate, resulting in differences in NPP in the spring, but not the summer. Also, each of the three species on the same aspect responded differently to the same microclimatic conditions, underscoring interspecific variation at the site. How might these patterns change throughout an annual cycle of sun angles that differentially influence the soil surface? A more complete picture of seasonal behavior will be developed with the addition of fall and winter measurements. These conclusions should provide a more complete picture of ecosystem function to the benefit of foresters and modelers.

Building application of solar energy. Study no. 2: Representative buildings for solar energy performance analysis and market penetration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hirshberg, A. S.

1975-01-01

The following topics are discussed: (1) Assignment of population to microclimatic zones; (2) specifications of the mix of buildings in the SCE territory; (3) specification of four typical buildings for thermal analysis and market penetration studies; (4) identification of the materials and energy conserving characteristics of these typical buildings; (5) specifications of the HVAC functions used in each typical building, and determination of the HVAC systems used in each building; and (6) identification of the type of fuel used in each building.

Short-Term Forest Management Effects on a Long-Lived Ectotherm

PubMed Central

Currylow, Andrea F.; MacGowan, Brian J.; Williams, Rod N.

2012-01-01

Timber harvesting has been shown to have both positive and negative effects on forest dwelling species. We examined the immediate effects of timber harvests (clearcuts and group selection openings) on ectotherm behavior, using the eastern box turtle as a model. We monitored the movement and thermal ecology of 50 adult box turtles using radiotelemetry from May–October for two years prior to, and two years following scheduled timber harvests in the Central Hardwoods Region of the U.S. Annual home ranges (7.45 ha, 100% MCP) did not differ in any year or in response to timber harvests, but were 33% larger than previous estimates (range 0.47–187.67 ha). Distance of daily movements decreased post-harvest (from 22 m±1.2 m to 15 m±0.9 m) whereas thermal optima increased (from 23±1°C to 25±1°C). Microclimatic conditions varied by habitat type, but monthly average temperatures were warmer in harvested areas by as much as 13°C. Animals that used harvest openings were exposed to extreme monthly average temperatures (∼40°C). As a result, the animals made shorter and more frequent movements in and out of the harvest areas while maintaining 9% higher body temperatures. This experimental design coupled with radiotelemetry and behavioral observation of a wild ectotherm population prior to and in response to anthropogenic habitat alteration is the first of its kind. Our results indicate that even in a relatively contiguous forested landscape with small-scale timber harvests, there are local effects on the thermal ecology of ectotherms. Ultimately, the results of this research can benefit the conservation and management of temperature-dependent species by informing effects of timber management across landscapes amid changing climates. PMID:22792344

Comparison of Microclimate Simulated weather data to ASHRAE Clear Sky Model and Measured Data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bhandari, Mahabir S.

In anticipation of emerging global urbanization and its impact on microclimate, a need exists to better understand and quantify microclimate effects on building energy use. Satisfaction of this need will require coordinated research of microclimate impacts on and from “human systems.” The Urban Microclimate and Energy Tool (Urban-MET) project seeks to address this need by quantifying and analyzing the relationships among climatic conditions, urban morphology, land cover, and energy use; and using these relationships to inform energy-efficient urban development and planning. Initial research will focus on analysis of measured and modeled energy efficiency of various building types in selected urbanmore » areas and temporal variations in energy use for different urban morphologies under different microclimatic conditions. In this report, we analyze the differences between microclimate weather data sets for the Oak Ridge National Laboratory campus produced by ENVI-met and Weather Research Forecast (WRF) models, the ASHRAE clear sky which defines the maximum amounts of solar radiation that can be expected, and measured data from a weather station on campus. Errors with climate variables and their impact on building energy consumption will be shown for the microclimate simulations to help prioritize future improvement for use in microclimate simulation impacts to energy use of buildings.« less

From global change to a butterfly flapping: biophysics and behaviour affect tropical climate change impacts.

PubMed

Bonebrake, Timothy C; Boggs, Carol L; Stamberger, Jeannie A; Deutsch, Curtis A; Ehrlich, Paul R

2014-10-22

Difficulty in characterizing the relationship between climatic variability and climate change vulnerability arises when we consider the multiple scales at which this variation occurs, be it temporal (from minute to annual) or spatial (from centimetres to kilometres). We studied populations of a single widely distributed butterfly species, Chlosyne lacinia, to examine the physiological, morphological, thermoregulatory and biophysical underpinnings of adaptation to tropical and temperate climates. Microclimatic and morphological data along with a biophysical model documented the importance of solar radiation in predicting butterfly body temperature. We also integrated the biophysics with a physiologically based insect fitness model to quantify the influence of solar radiation, morphology and behaviour on warming impact projections. While warming is projected to have some detrimental impacts on tropical ectotherms, fitness impacts in this study are not as negative as models that assume body and air temperature equivalence would suggest. We additionally show that behavioural thermoregulation can diminish direct warming impacts, though indirect thermoregulatory consequences could further complicate predictions. With these results, at multiple spatial and temporal scales, we show the importance of biophysics and behaviour for studying biodiversity consequences of global climate change, and stress that tropical climate change impacts are likely to be context-dependent. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

From global change to a butterfly flapping: biophysics and behaviour affect tropical climate change impacts

PubMed Central

Bonebrake, Timothy C.; Boggs, Carol L.; Stamberger, Jeannie A.; Deutsch, Curtis A.; Ehrlich, Paul R.

2014-01-01

Difficulty in characterizing the relationship between climatic variability and climate change vulnerability arises when we consider the multiple scales at which this variation occurs, be it temporal (from minute to annual) or spatial (from centimetres to kilometres). We studied populations of a single widely distributed butterfly species, Chlosyne lacinia, to examine the physiological, morphological, thermoregulatory and biophysical underpinnings of adaptation to tropical and temperate climates. Microclimatic and morphological data along with a biophysical model documented the importance of solar radiation in predicting butterfly body temperature. We also integrated the biophysics with a physiologically based insect fitness model to quantify the influence of solar radiation, morphology and behaviour on warming impact projections. While warming is projected to have some detrimental impacts on tropical ectotherms, fitness impacts in this study are not as negative as models that assume body and air temperature equivalence would suggest. We additionally show that behavioural thermoregulation can diminish direct warming impacts, though indirect thermoregulatory consequences could further complicate predictions. With these results, at multiple spatial and temporal scales, we show the importance of biophysics and behaviour for studying biodiversity consequences of global climate change, and stress that tropical climate change impacts are likely to be context-dependent. PMID:25165769

Review of the physiology of human thermal comfort while exercising in urban landscapes and implications for bioclimatic design.

PubMed

Vanos, Jennifer K; Warland, Jon S; Gillespie, Terry J; Kenny, Natasha A

2010-07-01

This review comprehensively examines scientific literature pertaining to human physiology during exercise, including mechanisms of heat formation and dissipation, heat stress on the body, the importance of skin temperature monitoring, the effects of clothing, and microclimatic measurements. This provides a critical foundation for microclimatologists and biometeorologists in the understanding of experiments involving human physiology. The importance of the psychological aspects of how an individual perceives an outdoor environment are also reviewed, emphasizing many factors that can indirectly affect thermal comfort (TC). Past and current efforts to develop accurate human comfort models are described, as well as how these models can be used to develop resilient and comfortable outdoor spaces for physical activity. Lack of suitable spaces plays a large role in the deterioration of human health due to physical inactivity, leading to higher rates of illness, heart disease, obesity and heat-related casualties. This trend will continue if urban designers do not make use of current knowledge of bioclimatic urban design, which must be synthesized with physiology, psychology and microclimatology. Increased research is required for furthering our knowledge on the outdoor human energy balance concept and bioclimatic design for health and well-being in urban areas.

Review of the physiology of human thermal comfort while exercising in urban landscapes and implications for bioclimatic design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vanos, Jennifer K.; Warland, Jon S.; Gillespie, Terry J.; Kenny, Natasha A.

2010-07-01

This review comprehensively examines scientific literature pertaining to human physiology during exercise, including mechanisms of heat formation and dissipation, heat stress on the body, the importance of skin temperature monitoring, the effects of clothing, and microclimatic measurements. This provides a critical foundation for microclimatologists and biometeorologists in the understanding of experiments involving human physiology. The importance of the psychological aspects of how an individual perceives an outdoor environment are also reviewed, emphasizing many factors that can indirectly affect thermal comfort (TC). Past and current efforts to develop accurate human comfort models are described, as well as how these models can be used to develop resilient and comfortable outdoor spaces for physical activity. Lack of suitable spaces plays a large role in the deterioration of human health due to physical inactivity, leading to higher rates of illness, heart disease, obesity and heat-related casualties. This trend will continue if urban designers do not make use of current knowledge of bioclimatic urban design, which must be synthesized with physiology, psychology and microclimatology. Increased research is required for furthering our knowledge on the outdoor human energy balance concept and bioclimatic design for health and well-being in urban areas.

Raman spectroscopy detection of biomolecules in biocrusts from differing environmental conditions.

PubMed

Miralles, I; Jorge-Villar, S E; van Wesemael, B; Lázaro, R

2017-01-15

Lichens and cyanobacteria colonize inhospitable places covering a wide climate range due to their different survival strategies, such as the synthesis of protective biomolecules. The effect of ecological factors on the synthesis of biomolecules has not been widely analysed. This study aimed to assess the effects of four factors (species, microclimate, seasonality and hydration state) and their interactions on the biomolecule frequency detected by Raman Spectroscopy. We included cyanobacterial biocrusts, and the lichens Diploschistes diacapsis, Squamarina lentigera, and Lepraria isidiata; two contrasted microclimates (typical and marginal), two contrasted seasons (hot and dry vs cool and wet) and two hydration states (dry and wet). "Species" was the most influential factor in the identity and frequency of the main biomolecules. Microclimatic differences in the range of the local specific habitats only influenced the biomolecules in cyanobacteria. There was a quadruple interaction among the factors, the effects being different mainly depending on the species. At D. diacapsis, the production of their main biomolecules depended on microclimate, although it also depended on seasonality. Nevertheless, in L. isidiata and S. lentigera microclimatic differences did not significantly affect the production of biomolecules. In the lichen species, the microhabitats exposed to relatively larger incident radiation did not show significantly larger relative frequency of photoprotective biomolecules. No clear connection between higher production of oxalates and drier microhabitats was found, suggesting that the synthesis of oxalates is not related to water reserve strategy. The pros and cons of monitor biomolecules in biocrust by Raman spectrometry were also discussed. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Temperature trends in desert cities: how vegetation and urbanization affect the urban heat island dynamics in hyper-arid climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marpu, P. R.; Lazzarini, M.; Molini, A.; Ghedira, H.

2013-12-01

Urban areas represent a unique micro-climatic system, mainly characterized by scarcity of vegetation and ground moisture, an albedo strictly dependent on building materials and urban forms, high heat capacity, elevated pollutants emissions, anthropogenic heat production, and a characteristic boundary layer dynamics. For obvious historical reasons, the first to be addressed in the literature were the effects of urbanization on the local microclimate of temperate regions, where most of the urban development took place in the last centuries. Here micro-climatic characteristics all contribute to the warming of urban areas, also known as 'urban heat island' effect, and are expected to crucially impact future energy and water consumption, air quality, and human health. However, rapidly increasing urbanization rates in arid and hyper-arid developing countries could soon require more attention towards studying the effects of urban development on arid climates, which remained mainly unexplored till now. In this talk we investigate the climatology of urban heat islands in seven highly urbanized desert cities based on day and night temporal trends of land surface temperature (LST) and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) acquired using MODIS satellite during 2000-2012. Urban and rural areas are distinguished by analyzing the high-resolution temporal variability and averaged monthly values of LST, NDVI and Surface Urban Heat Island (SUHI) for all the seven cities and adjacent sub-urban areas. Different thermal behaviors were observed at the selected sites, also including temperature mitigation and inverse urban heat island, and are here discussed together with detailed analysis of the corresponding trends.

[Morphophysiological monitoring of winter wheat at spring in connection with problem of global climate change].

PubMed

Klimov, S V; Burakhanova, E A; Dubinina, I M; Alieva, G P; Sal'nikova, E B; Trunova, T I

2006-01-01

Data on morphophysiological monitoring of winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) cultivar Mironovskaya 808 grown in Hoagland and Arnon solution in a greenhouse and transferred to natural conditions in March-April 2004 with the mean daily temperature of 0.6 +/- 0.7 degrees C within the exposure period of 42 days are presented. Water content, dry weight of plants and their organs, frost hardiness of plants, degree of tissue damage by frost, CO2 metabolism (photosynthesis and respiration), concentrations of sugars in tissues and proportions between different sugar forms, and activities of soluble and insoluble acid and alkaline phosphatases were monitored. Monitoring was carried out for three experimental variants simulating different microclimatic conditions in spring: after snow melting (experiment I), under ice crust (experiment II), and under snow cover (experiment III). Plants in experiments III and II demonstrated a higher water content in tissues, lower frost hardiness, higher rates of biomass loss, lower concentration of sugars and lower di- to monosaccharide ratio in tissues, and higher total invertase activity, particularly, cell wall-associated acid invertase activity. The dark respiration rates at 0 degrees C did not significantly differ between experimental variants. The photosynthetic capacity at this measurement temperature was maintained in all experimental variants being most pronounced in experiment II with the most intense photoinhibition under natural conditions. Comparison of experiments III and II with experiment I is used to discuss the negative effect of changes in certain microclimatic variables associated with global warming and leading to plant extortion and death from frost in spring.

Temporal and spatial variations in microclimate influence the larval foraging behaviors and performance of a conifer-feeding sawfly.

PubMed

Johns, R C; Boone, J; Leggo, J J; Smith, S; Carleton, D; Quiring, D T

2012-06-01

Herbivorous insects are often exposed to broad temporal and spatial variations in microclimate conditions within their host plants and have adapted a variety of behaviors, such as avoidance or basking, to either offset or benefit from such variation. Field experiments were carried out to investigate the influence of daily and intratree variations in microclimate on the behaviors (feeding, resting, dispersal, and hiding) and associated performance of late-instar larvae of the yellowheaded spruce sawfly, Pikonema alaskensis (Rohwer) (Hymenoptera: Tenthredinidae) within crowns of 1.25-1.5 m tall black spruce (Picea mariana [Miller] Britton Sterns Poggenburg); late instars feed on developing shoots of young spruce and are often exposed to microclimatic extremes with unknown effects on performance. Larvae fed diurnally from just after dawn (0800 h) until dusk (2000 h) and rested throughout the night, with brief periods of dispersal occurring in the morning and evening. Neither larval behavior nor abiotic conditions differed significantly between the upper and lower crowns of trees. Temperature, humidity, and solar insolation all explained >90% of variation in feeding; however, sunrise and sunset were the most likely cues influencing diurnal behavior. Most larvae (94%) fed on the bottom, shaded side of shoots, and field experiments indicated that this behavior is adaptive with respect to microclimate, probably reducing hygrothermal stress. Thus, behavioral adaptations by P. alaskensis to daily and within-shoot microclimatic variation may reduce the risk of hygrothermal stress during dispersal or feeding, while still allowing larvae to feed on the preferred and highly nutritious upper crown foliage of young spruce.

Fragmentation impairs the microclimate buffering effect of tropical forests.

PubMed

Ewers, Robert M; Banks-Leite, Cristina

2013-01-01

Tropical forest species are among the most sensitive to changing climatic conditions, and the forest they inhabit helps to buffer their microclimate from the variable climatic conditions outside the forest. However, habitat fragmentation and edge effects exposes vegetation to outside microclimatic conditions, thereby reducing the ability of the forest to buffer climatic variation. In this paper, we ask what proportion of forest in a fragmented ecosystem is impacted by altered microclimate conditions driven by edge effects, and extrapolate these results to the whole Atlantic Forest biome, one of the most disturbed biodiversity hotspots. To address these questions, we collected above and below ground temperature for a full year using temperature sensors placed in forest fragments of different sizes, and at different distances from the forest edge. In the Atlantic forests of Brazil, we found that the buffering effect of forests reduced maximum outside temperatures by one third or more at ground level within a forest, with the buffering effect being stronger below-ground than one metre above-ground. The temperature buffering effect of forests was, however, reduced near forest edges with the edge effect extending up to 20 m inside the forest. The heavily fragmented nature of the Brazilian Atlantic forest means that 12% of the remaining biome experiences altered microclimate conditions. Our results add further information about the extent of edge effects in the Atlantic Forest, and we suggest that maintaining a low perimeter-to-area ratio may be a judicious method for minimizing the amount of forest area that experiences altered microclimatic conditions in this ecosystem.

Fragmentation Impairs the Microclimate Buffering Effect of Tropical Forests

PubMed Central

Ewers, Robert M.; Banks-Leite, Cristina

2013-01-01

Background Tropical forest species are among the most sensitive to changing climatic conditions, and the forest they inhabit helps to buffer their microclimate from the variable climatic conditions outside the forest. However, habitat fragmentation and edge effects exposes vegetation to outside microclimatic conditions, thereby reducing the ability of the forest to buffer climatic variation. In this paper, we ask what proportion of forest in a fragmented ecosystem is impacted by altered microclimate conditions driven by edge effects, and extrapolate these results to the whole Atlantic Forest biome, one of the most disturbed biodiversity hotspots. To address these questions, we collected above and below ground temperature for a full year using temperature sensors placed in forest fragments of different sizes, and at different distances from the forest edge. Principal Findings In the Atlantic forests of Brazil, we found that the buffering effect of forests reduced maximum outside temperatures by one third or more at ground level within a forest, with the buffering effect being stronger below-ground than one metre above-ground. The temperature buffering effect of forests was, however, reduced near forest edges with the edge effect extending up to 20 m inside the forest. The heavily fragmented nature of the Brazilian Atlantic forest means that 12% of the remaining biome experiences altered microclimate conditions. Conclusions Our results add further information about the extent of edge effects in the Atlantic Forest, and we suggest that maintaining a low perimeter-to-area ratio may be a judicious method for minimizing the amount of forest area that experiences altered microclimatic conditions in this ecosystem. PMID:23483976

Salvage logging versus the use of burnt wood as a nurse object to promote post-fire tree seedling establishment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Castro, J.; Allen, Craig D.; Molina-Morales, M.; Maranon-Jimenez, Sara; Sanchez-Miranda, A.; Zamora, R.

2011-01-01

Intense debate surrounds the effects of post-fire salvage logging (SL) versus nonintervention policies on forest regeneration, but scant support is available from experimental studies. We analyze the effect of three post-fire management treatments on the recruitment of a serotinous pine (Pinus pinaster) at a Mediterranean mountain. Treatments were applied 7 months after the fire and differ in the degree of intervention, ranging from “no intervention” (NI, all trees left standing) to “partial cut plus lopping” (PCL, felling most of the trees, cutting the main branches, and leaving all the biomass in situ without mastication), and “SL” (felling and piling the logs, and masticating the woody debris). Seedling survival after 3 years was the highest in PCL (47.3% versus 38.7% in SL). This was associated with the amelioration of microclimatic conditions under the scattered branches, which reduced radiation and soil temperature while increasing soil moisture. Seedling density after 2 years was approximately 5.5 times higher in PCL than in SL, as in SL a large fraction of seedlings was lost as a consequence of mechanized mastication. The NI treatment showed the lowest seedling survival (17.3%). Nevertheless, seedling density was similar to SL. Seedling growth scarcely differed among treatments. Our results show that branches left onsite acted as nurse objects that improved key microclimatic conditions for seedling recruitment. This creates a facilitative interaction ideal for seedling establishment in moisture-deficient ecosystems, as it provides the benefit of a shading overstory but without underground competition.

Accumulation and transfer of 137Cs and 90Sr in the plants of the forest ecosystem near the Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant.

PubMed

Lukšienė, B; Marčiulionienė, D; Gudelienė, I; Schönhofer, F

2013-02-01

The radioecological state of the forest ecosystem in the vicinity of the Ignalina Power Plant prior to decommissioning was analysed with specific emphasis on (137)Cs and (90)Sr activity concentrations in plant species growing in two reference sampling sites (Tilze and Grikiniskes). In the period of 1996-2008 the mean contamination of plants with (137)Cs was from 45 to 119 Bq/kg and with (90)Sr - from 3 to 42 Bq/kg. Measured (137)Cs TF values for soil-root transfer mainly ranged between 1.0-1.4, except for Calamagrostis arundinacea which had a TF value of 0.1. On average, the (137)Cs TF value from root to shoot was 1.7 fold higher than for soil to root transfer. (90)Sr TF values (soil-root) were in the range of 1.2-1.8 but for Calluna vulgaris it was 0.2. The mean root to shoot TF value for (90)Sr was 7.7 fold higher. These results indicate the higher (90)Sr bioavailability than that of (137)Cs in the forested area. The Grikiniskes reference site is located nearby the Ignalina NPP, specifically the heated water outlet channel, which results in altered microclimatic conditions. These specific microclimatic conditions result in relationships between (137)Cs TF (soil-root) values and pH, moisture and organic matter content in the soil at Grikiniskes which appear to be different to those at the Tilze reference sampling site. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sustainable winter cities: Future directions for planning, policy and design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pressman, Norman E. P.

Attempts to generate a "climate-responsive" northern urban form are part of a relatively recent phenomenon and field of investigation. In conjunction with the international "winter cities" movement, the need has been established for explicit, systematic inquiry directed toward national and local action to improve the comfort and lifestyles of all northern inhabitants. It is important to recognize that winter-induced discomforts exist and that they must be acknowledged in planning theory and practice. For northern cities to function more satisfactorily, the negative impacts of winter must be reduced while its beneficial characteristics are enhanced. While not all summer activities can or should be abandoned during winter, proper micro-climatic control is essential if human life is to be retained outside. The outdoor season should be extended since so much indoor isolation occurs. The main principles to be incorporated in exemplary "winter city" design should be contact with nature, year-round usability, user participation, cultural continuity, and the creation of comfortable micro-climatic conditions throughout much of the city's open spaces. All valuable sources of inspiration must be harnessed in the attempt to mediate between organic regionalism and internationalism, on the one hand, and romanticism and pragmatic realism, on the other. Creating optimum conditions for human well-being, habitation, work and intellectual development in each of the four seasons is vital under harsh environments. Adopting a climate-sensitive approach to planning policy and urban design can render everyday life less stressful, especially during the lengthy winter periods found in many northern latitude and high altitude settings.

Evaluating shading bias in malaise and intercept traps

USGS Publications Warehouse

Irvine, Kathryn M.; Woods, Stephen A.

2007-01-01

Foresters are increasingly focusing on landscape level management regimes. At the landscape level, managed acreage may differ substantially in structure and micro-climatic conditions. Trapping is a commonly used method to evaluate changes in insect communities across landscapes. Among those trapping techniques, Malaise and window-pane traps are conveniently deployed to collect large numbers of insects for relative estimates of density. However, the catch within traps may be affected by a wide range of environmental variables including trap location, height, and factors such as exposure to sunlight and temperature. Seven experiments were conducted from 1996 through 2000 to evaluate the effects of shading on trap catch of a variety of Malaise trap designs and one window-pane trap design. Overall, differences in shading effects on trap catch were detected across different traps and taxa and suggested that, in general, more insects are collected in traps that were in direct sunlight. The effect of shading varied from a reduction in trap catch of 10 % to an increase of 7%, the results depended on trap color. Diptera, Coleoptera, and Homoptera were most likely to exhibit this bias. In contrast, trap catch of the Hymenoptera was the most variable and appeared to be sensitive to factors that might interact with sun/shade conditions

Risk of exposure to ticks (Ixodidae) and the prevalence of tick-borne encephalitis virus (TBEV) in ticks in Southern Poland.

PubMed

Cuber, Piotr; Andreassen, Åshild; Vainio, Kirsti; Asman, Marek; Dudman, Susanne; Szilman, Piotr; Szilman, Ewa; Ottesen, Preben; Ånestad, Gabriel; Cieśla-Nobis, Sabina; Solarz, Krzysztof

2015-04-01

The article presents the results of the first study on seasonal activity of ticks and prevalence of tick-borne encephalitis virus (TBEV) in nymphs from the Silesian Province (Southern Poland). Previous studies on the prevalence of TBEV in ticks in Poland have been conducted mostly in northern and eastern regions, but none in the Silesian Province itself. The aims of this study were to analyse the seasonal variation in tick populations and compare TBEV prevalence in nymphs from different geographical locations in the Silesia. A total of 5160 questing Ixodes ricinus ticks were collected by the flagging method from 23 localities in southern Poland in 2010. Micro-climatic parameters (air temperature and humidity) were measured in order to estimate their influence on tick population. The highest tick activity was recorded in spring and was positively correlated with relative air humidity (RH). TBEV in the Silesian Province was analysed in 1750 nymphs and an overall prevalence was 0.11% (2 pools out of 175 analysed). The results of this study show that TBEV pool prevalence in nymphs is low in accordance with the low number of TBE cases reported within the region. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Local climatic conditions constrain soil yeast diversity patterns in Mediterranean forests, woodlands and scrub biome.

PubMed

Yurkov, Andrey M; Röhl, Oliver; Pontes, Ana; Carvalho, Cláudia; Maldonado, Cristina; Sampaio, José Paulo

2016-02-01

Soil yeasts represent a poorly known fraction of the soil microbiome due to limited ecological surveys. Here, we provide the first comprehensive inventory of cultivable soil yeasts in a Mediterranean ecosystem, which is the leading biodiversity hotspot for vascular plants and vertebrates in Europe. We isolated and identified soil yeasts from forested sites of Serra da Arrábida Natural Park (Portugal), representing the Mediterranean forests, woodlands and scrub biome. Both cultivation experiments and the subsequent species richness estimations suggest the highest species richness values reported to date, resulting in a total of 57 and 80 yeast taxa, respectively. These values far exceed those reported for other forest soils in Europe. Furthermore, we assessed the response of yeast diversity to microclimatic environmental factors in biotopes composed of the same plant species but showing a gradual change from humid broadleaf forests to dry maquis. We observed that forest properties constrained by precipitation level had strong impact on yeast diversity and on community structure and lower precipitation resulted in an increased number of rare species and decreased evenness values. In conclusion, the structure of soil yeast communities mirrors the environmental factors that affect aboveground phytocenoses, aboveground biomass and plant projective cover. © FEMS 2015. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Untangling the roles of microclimate, behaviour and physiological polymorphism in governing vulnerability of intertidal snails to heat stress.

PubMed

Dong, Yun-Wei; Li, Xiao-Xu; Choi, Francis M P; Williams, Gray A; Somero, George N; Helmuth, Brian

2017-05-17

Biogeographic distributions are driven by cumulative effects of smaller scale processes. Thus, vulnerability of animals to thermal stress is the result of physiological sensitivities to body temperature ( T b ), microclimatic conditions, and behavioural thermoregulation. To understand interactions among these variables, we analysed the thermal tolerances of three species of intertidal snails from different latitudes along the Chinese coast, and estimated potential T b in different microhabitats at each site. We then empirically determined the temperatures at which heart rate decreased sharply with rising temperature (Arrhenius breakpoint temperature, ABT) and at which it fell to zero (flat line temperature, FLT) to calculate thermal safety margins (TSM). Regular exceedance of FLT in sun-exposed microhabitats, a lethal effect, was predicted for only one mid-latitude site. However, ABTs of some individuals were exceeded at sun-exposed microhabitats in most sites, suggesting physiological impairment for snails with poor behavioural thermoregulation and revealing inter-individual variations (physiological polymorphism) of thermal limits. An autocorrelation analysis of T b showed that predictability of extreme temperatures was lowest at the hottest sites, indicating that the effectiveness of behavioural thermoregulation is potentially lowest at these sites. These results illustrate the critical roles of mechanistic studies at small spatial scales when predicting effects of climate change. © 2017 The Author(s).

Untangling the roles of microclimate, behaviour and physiological polymorphism in governing vulnerability of intertidal snails to heat stress

PubMed Central

Li, Xiao-xu; Choi, Francis M. P.; Williams, Gray A.; Somero, George N.; Helmuth, Brian

2017-01-01

Biogeographic distributions are driven by cumulative effects of smaller scale processes. Thus, vulnerability of animals to thermal stress is the result of physiological sensitivities to body temperature (Tb), microclimatic conditions, and behavioural thermoregulation. To understand interactions among these variables, we analysed the thermal tolerances of three species of intertidal snails from different latitudes along the Chinese coast, and estimated potential Tb in different microhabitats at each site. We then empirically determined the temperatures at which heart rate decreased sharply with rising temperature (Arrhenius breakpoint temperature, ABT) and at which it fell to zero (flat line temperature, FLT) to calculate thermal safety margins (TSM). Regular exceedance of FLT in sun-exposed microhabitats, a lethal effect, was predicted for only one mid-latitude site. However, ABTs of some individuals were exceeded at sun-exposed microhabitats in most sites, suggesting physiological impairment for snails with poor behavioural thermoregulation and revealing inter-individual variations (physiological polymorphism) of thermal limits. An autocorrelation analysis of Tb showed that predictability of extreme temperatures was lowest at the hottest sites, indicating that the effectiveness of behavioural thermoregulation is potentially lowest at these sites. These results illustrate the critical roles of mechanistic studies at small spatial scales when predicting effects of climate change. PMID:28469014

Model for the analysis of sun radiation structures exposed to open air: consideration of its validity and usefulness based on its experimentation in situ

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bottoni, Mario; Fabretti, Giuseppe

2001-03-01

The definition of the thermal dynamics of a structure-work of cultural interest is important both from the microclimatic point of view and from the structural one. Elastic and plastic deformations, due to phenomena of heat exchange, influence, in a significant way, the mechanical behavior of the structure. Dealing with objects exposed to open air, one of the main sources of heat radiation is, obviously, the sun. Consequently, it is significant to evaluate the importance that solar radiation has in the global heating dynamics of the structure. Therefore, while studying the system Marcus Aurelius- Capitolium square, it was decided to support the investigations in situ (carried out by using thermovision and thermocouples) with the realization, on computer, of a system that could define the theoretical relationship existing between solar dynamics and the bronze monument. Correlation between information deduced from such a model and data obtained in situ, gave useful results and constituted a significant instrument for the analysis of the concrete thermal model of the investigated structure. The opportunity to deepen and improve such an experience arose when the Soprintendenza per i Beni Architettonici ed Ambientali di Firenze e Pistoia asked for a contribution to the studies and investigations aimed to define the thermal model of the Dome of Santa Maria del Fiore.

Suitability of different comfort indices for the prediction of thermal conditions in tree-covered outdoor spaces in arid cities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruiz, María Angélica; Correa, Erica Norma

2015-10-01

Outdoor thermal comfort is one of the most influential factors in the habitability of a space. Thermal level is defined not only by climate variables but also by the adaptation of people to the environment. This study presents a comparison between inductive and deductive thermal comfort models, contrasted with subjective reports, in order to identify which of the models can be used to most correctly predict thermal comfort in tree-covered outdoor spaces of the Mendoza Metropolitan Area, an intensely forested and open city located in an arid zone. Interviews and microclimatic measurements were carried out in winter 2010 and in summer 2011. Six widely used indices were selected according to different levels of complexity: the Temperature-Humidity Index (THI), Vinje's Comfort Index (PE), Thermal Sensation Index (TS), the Predicted Mean Vote (PMV), the COMFA model's energy balance (S), and the Physiological Equivalent Temperature (PET). The results show that the predictive models evaluated show percentages of predictive ability lower than 25 %. Despite this low indicator, inductive methods are adequate for obtaining a diagnosis of the degree and frequency in which a space is comfortable or not whereas deductive methods are recommended to influence urban design strategies. In addition, it is necessary to develop local models to evaluate perceived thermal comfort more adequately. This type of tool is very useful in the design and evaluation of the thermal conditions in outdoor spaces, based not only to climatic criteria but also subjective sensations.

Macro- and microclimate conditions may alter grapevine deacclimation: variation in thermal amplitude in two contrasting wine regions from North and South America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Antivilo, Francisco Gonzalez; Paz, Rosalía Cristina; Keller, Markus; Borgo, Roberto; Tognetti, Jorge; Juñent, Fidel Roig

2017-12-01

Low temperature is a limiting factor that affects vineyard distribution globally. The level of cold hardiness acquired during the dormant season by Vitis sp. is crucial for winter survival. Most research published on this topic has been generated beyond 40° N latitude, where daily mean temperatures may attain injurious levels during the dormant season resulting in significant damage to vines and buds. Symptoms of cold injury have been identified in Mendoza (32-35° S latitude), a Southern Hemisphere wine region characterized by a high thermal amplitude, and warm winds during the dormant season. These symptoms have usually been attributed to drought and/or pathogens, but not to rapid deacclimation followed by injurious low temperatures. Because local information on meteorological events as probable causes is scarce, this research was designed to test and study this assumption by comparing macro-, meso-, and microclimatic data from Mendoza, Argentina, and eastern Washington, USA. The goal was to unveil why freezing damage has occurred in both regions, despite the existence of large climatic differences. Because environmental parameters under field conditions may not correspond to data recorded by conventional weather stations, sensors were installed in vineyards for comparison. Microclimatic conditions on grapevines were also evaluated to assess the most vulnerable portions of field-grown grapevines. In order to better understand if it may be possible to modify cold hardiness status in a short period with high thermal amplitude conditions, deacclimation was induced using a thermal treatment. Hence, despite the fact that Mendoza is warmer, and temperatures are not as extreme as in Washington, high daily thermal amplitude might be partially involved in plant deacclimation, leading to a differential cold hardiness response.

Macro- and microclimate conditions may alter grapevine deacclimation: variation in thermal amplitude in two contrasting wine regions from North and South America.

PubMed

Antivilo, Francisco Gonzalez; Paz, Rosalía Cristina; Keller, Markus; Borgo, Roberto; Tognetti, Jorge; Juñent, Fidel Roig

2017-12-01

Low temperature is a limiting factor that affects vineyard distribution globally. The level of cold hardiness acquired during the dormant season by Vitis sp. is crucial for winter survival. Most research published on this topic has been generated beyond 40° N latitude, where daily mean temperatures may attain injurious levels during the dormant season resulting in significant damage to vines and buds. Symptoms of cold injury have been identified in Mendoza (32-35° S latitude), a Southern Hemisphere wine region characterized by a high thermal amplitude, and warm winds during the dormant season. These symptoms have usually been attributed to drought and/or pathogens, but not to rapid deacclimation followed by injurious low temperatures. Because local information on meteorological events as probable causes is scarce, this research was designed to test and study this assumption by comparing macro-, meso-, and microclimatic data from Mendoza, Argentina, and eastern Washington, USA. The goal was to unveil why freezing damage has occurred in both regions, despite the existence of large climatic differences. Because environmental parameters under field conditions may not correspond to data recorded by conventional weather stations, sensors were installed in vineyards for comparison. Microclimatic conditions on grapevines were also evaluated to assess the most vulnerable portions of field-grown grapevines. In order to better understand if it may be possible to modify cold hardiness status in a short period with high thermal amplitude conditions, deacclimation was induced using a thermal treatment. Hence, despite the fact that Mendoza is warmer, and temperatures are not as extreme as in Washington, high daily thermal amplitude might be partially involved in plant deacclimation, leading to a differential cold hardiness response.

Microclimatic conditions and their effects on sheep behavior during a live export shipment from Australia to the Middle East.

PubMed

Pines, M K; Phillips, C J C

2013-09-01

The microclimate can potentially impact the health and welfare of livestock exported by ship. Within-pen microclimatic conditions were recorded and the effects of ammonia on sheep behavior investigated on a voyage from Australia to the Middle East. Ammonia, carbon dioxide, and hydrogen sulfide as well as wet-bulb, dry-bulb, and dew-point temperature and air speed were mapped in 20 open-deck focal pens, with the focus on the behavior and location of a marked sheep in each pen. Air speed was highly variable in most pens, with pockets of high but transient concentrations of ammonia (30.7 to 44.2 mg/m(3)) in 20% of pens that had no or minimal air flow. Carbon dioxide concentrations varied in some pens, but overall concentrations of carbon dioxide and hydrogen sulfide were low. Sheep in pens previously identified to have high ammonia concentrations, high wet-bulb temperatures, and low wind speed stood longer (P = 0.003) and spent less time feeding (P = 0.01) and ruminating (P = 0.004) than those in pens previously identified with low ammonia, low wet-bulb temperature, and high wind speed. Moreover, sheep exposed to increased ammonia concentrations held their head higher (P = 0.004) to avoid the greater ammonia concentrations at lower heights, and these sheep had more conjunctivitis (P < 0.001). Sheep movement around the pen was limited. Increased time spent lying down (P = 0.04) and more rhythmical behavior in the second half of the voyage indicated that the sheep adjusted to shipboard conditions over time. It is concluded that high, transient concentrations of ammonia existed in some pens, which adversely affected the behavior of sheep.

Microclimatic conditions in different land-use systems in Sumatra, Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meijide, Ana; Tiralla, Nina; Sabajo, Clifton; Panferov, Oleg; Gunawan, Dodo; Knohl, Alexander

2015-04-01

Over the last decades, Indonesia has experienced an unprecedented transformation of the land surface through deforestation and conversion from forest to other land-uses such as oil palm and rubber plantations. These transformations are expected to affect not only biodiversity and carbon storage, but also the biophysical conditions of the land surface, i.e. air and surface temperature, surface albedo, air humidity, and soil moisture. There is, however, a lack of quantitative information characterizing these differences with a systematic experimental design. We report results from micrometeorological measurements in four different land-use types (forest, rubber plantation, jungle rubber, and oil palm plantation, n=4) in two different landscapes in Jambi Province in Sumatra/Indonesia as well as remote sensing data from Landsat. Preliminary results show differences on the average within-canopy air temperature, with lowest values in the forest (24.70°C ± 0.01°C) and highest in oil palm and rubber plantations (25.45°C ± 0.02°C and 25.55°C ± 0.01°C respectively). The temperature ranges also varied between different land uses, from 6.27°C in the forest and up to 9.40 °C in oil palm between the 5 and 95% percentile. Relative air humidity followed an inverse trend to air temperature, with rubber and oil palm plantations being on average 6.29 and 5.37 % drier than the forest. Soil temperature was up to 1°C warmer in oil palm than in forest plots, while soil moisture was more influenced by the soil type in the different landscapes than by the land uses. In conclusion, our data demonstrate that land transformation in Indonesia results in distinctly different microclimatic conditions across land-use types.

Feeding group responses of a Neotropical termite assemblage to rain forest fragmentation.

PubMed

Davies, Richard G

2002-10-01

Biomass collapse and its associated microclimatic stresses within recently isolated rain forest fragments may negatively affect species diversity of most resident taxa. However, for some decomposer organisms, increased resource availability via accompanying tree die-off may effect positive responses, at least for a time, with implications for rates of nutrient cycling and greenhouse gas release. This study investigates the early effects of forest fragmentation on a Neotropical termite assemblage. Numbers of encounters (surrogate for relative abundance) and species richness of wood and leaf-litter feeders, soil feeders, and the whole assemblage, were studied across true forest islands and mainland sites at a hydroelectric reservoir in French Guiana. Results showed no overall effect of fragmentation on either total termite encounters or species richness. However, numbers of encounters and species richness of wood and leaf-litter feeders showed positive responses to forest fragmentation. By contrast, soil feeders showed a negative response for numbers of encounters and no significant effect for species richness. Environmental data suggest that increased tree die-off, and other edge effects associated with biomass collapse, were underway at the time of sampling. Resulting increase in resource availability may therefore explain the positive influence on wood and leaf-litter feeders. A possible decrease in predation pressure from ants with decrease in island size was not tested for, but was a likely effect of the flooded matrix habitat. Fragmentation effects on soil feeder encounters may be due to the energetic and microclimatic constraints of feeding lower down the humification gradient of termite food substrates, but were not sufficient to affect species richness. The patterns revealed suggest that rates of wood decomposition following tree die-off, and of soil nutrient cycling, under different rain forest fragmentation scenarios, merit further study.

Data gathering and simulation of climate change impacts in mountainous areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bachelet, D.; Baker, B.; Hicke, J.; Conklin, D.; McKelvey, K.

2007-12-01

High mountains include species most at risk in a warming environment and are a critical link in the water supply chain for both human and natural systems. Scientists are monitoring and simulating these systems as snowpack depth changes, snowmelt timing changes, frozen soils melt and destabilize, and low elevation populations migrate upslope. Natural climate cycles and human activities interact with climate change trends and complicate the interpretation of the signal we observe. For ex. over the past 4 years in Yunnan (China), we documented that herbaceous alpine meadows are contracting as forest tree line advances and alpine shrub biomass increases. This is a result of interactions between human land use alteration and observed shifts in climate. In North America as snowpack decreases, wolverines and lynx denning conditions are jeopardized as human pressure reduces their extent. Coarse scale vegetation shift models using downscaled future climate scenarios fail to capture complex terrain features and microclimatic conditions that can either ensure critical habitat for the in-situ survival of threatened species or make things worse (ex. rockfalls) for climate migrants. Recent simulation efforts focus on high resolution models that address aspect, slope, soil types, and microclimate variations that affect local and migrating plants, their associated pollinators and insect herbivores, modifying habitat availability for birds and mammals

Microclimatic modeling of the desert in the United Arab Emirates

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Khalil, A.K.; Abdrabboh, M.A.; Kamel, K.A.

1996-10-01

The present study is concerned with the prediction of the weather parameters in the microclimate layer (less than 2 m above the ground surface) in the desert and sparsely vegetated areas in the United Arab Emirates. A survey was made of the weather data in these regions including solar radiation, wind speed, screen temperatures and relative humidity. Additionally, wind speed data were obtained at heights below two meters and surface albedo was recorded for various soil and vegetation conditions. A survey was also carried out for the different plant species in various areas of the U.A.E. Data on soil andmore » surface temperature were then analyzed. An energy balance model was formulated including incident short- and long-wave length radiation between earth and sky, convective heat transfer to/from earth surface, surface reflection of solar radiation and soil/plant evapotranspiration. An explicit one dimensional finite difference scheme was adapted to solve the resulting algebraic finite difference equations. The equation for surface nodes included thermal radiation as well as convection effects. The heat transfer coefficient was evaluated on the basis of wind speed and surface roughness at the site where the energy balance was set. Theoretical predictions of air and soil temperatures were accordingly compared to experimental measurements in selected sites, where reasonable agreements were observed.« less

Evidence-Based Reptile Housing and Nutrition.

PubMed

Oonincx, Dennis; van Leeuwen, Jeroen

2017-09-01

The provision of a good light source is important for reptiles. For instance, ultraviolet light is used in social interactions and used for vitamin D synthesis. With respect to housing, most reptilians are best kept pairwise or individually. Environmental enrichment can be effective but depends on the form and the species to which it is applied. Temperature gradients around preferred body temperatures allow accurate thermoregulation, which is essential for reptiles. Natural distributions indicate suitable ambient temperatures, but microclimatic conditions are at least as important. Because the nutrient requirements of reptiles are largely unknown, facilitating self-selection from various dietary items is preferable. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Urban amplification of the global warming in Moscow megacity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kislov, Alexander; Konstantinov, Pavel; Varentsov, Mikhail; Samsonov, Timofey; Gorlach, Irina; Trusilova, Kristina

2015-04-01

Climate changes in the large cities are very important and requires better understanding. The focus of this paper is climate change of the Moscow megacity. Its urban features strongly influence the atmospheric boundary layer above the Moscow agglomeration area and determine the microclimatic features of the local environment, such as urban heat island (UHI). Available meteorological observations within the Moscow urban area and surrounding territory allow us to assess the natural climate variations and human-induced climate warming separately. To obtain more precisely viewing on the UHI structure we have included into the analysis the satellite data (Meteosat-10), providing temperature and humidity profiles with high resolution. To investigate the mechanism of the urban amplification we realized the regional climate model COSMO-CLM+TEB. Apart from detailed climate research the model runs will be planned for climate projecting of Moscow agglomeration area. Climate change differences between urban and rural areas are determined by changes of the shape of the UHI and their relationships with changes of building height and density. Therefore, the urban module of COSMO-CLM+TEB model is fed by information from special GIS database contenting both geometric characteristics of the urban canyons and other characteristics of the urban surface. The sources of information were maps belonging to the OpenStreetMap, and digital elevation models SRTM90 and ASTER GDEM v.2 as well. The multiscale GIS database allows us to generate such kind of information with different spatial resolution (200, 500 and 1000 meters).

Microclimatic effects of planted hydroponic structures in urban environment: measurements and simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Katsoulas, N.; Antoniadis, D.; Tsirogiannis, I. L.; Labraki, E.; Bartzanas, T.; Kittas, C.

2017-05-01

The objectives of this effort was to study the effect of vertical (green wall) and horizontal (pergola) green structures on the microclimate conditions of the building surroundings and estimate the thermal perception and heat stress conditions near the two structures. The experimental data were used to validate the results simulated by the recent version (V4.0 preview III) of ENVI-met software which was used to simulate the effect of different design parameters of a pergola and a green façade on microclimate and heat stress conditions. Further aim is to use these results for better design of green structures. The microclimate measurements were carried out in real scale structures (hydroponic pergola and hydroponic green wall) at the Kostakii Campus of the Technological Education Institute of Epirus (Arta, Greece). The validation results showed a very good agreement between measured and simulated values of air temperature, with Tair,sim = 0.98 Tair,meas in the Empty atrium and Tair,sim = 0.99 Tair,meas in the Atrium with pergola, with a determination coefficient R 2 of 0.98 and 0.93, respectively. The model was used to predict the effects of green structures on air temperature (Tair), relative humidity (RH), and mean radiant temperature (Tmrt). The output values of these parameters were used as input data in the RayMan pro (V 2.1) model for estimating the physiologically equivalent temperature (PET) of different case scenarios. The average daytime value of simulated air temperature in the atrium for the case without and with pergola during three different days was 29.2 and 28.9 °C while the corresponding measured values were 29.7 and 29.2 °C. The results showed that compared to the case with no pergola in the atrium, covering 100% the atrium area with a planted pergola reduced at the hottest part of the day Tmrt and PET values by 29.4 and 17.9 °C, respectively. Although the values of air temperature (measured and simulated) were not greatly affected by the presence of a green wall, the most important effect of green wall to the building wall is the reduction of solar radiation behind the green wall. This reduction leads to a significant reduction (about 8 °C) of building surface temperature behind the green wall and accordingly to a reduction of the energy load of the building.

Understanding Climate Variability of Urban Ecosystems Through the Lens of Citizen Science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ripplinger, J.; Jenerette, D.; Wang, J.; Chandler, M.; Ge, C.; Koutzoukis, S.

2017-12-01

The Los Angeles megacity is vulnerable to climate warming - a process that locally exacerbates the urban heat island effect as it intensifies with size and density of the built-up area. We know that large-scale drivers play a role, but in order to understand local-scale climate variation, more research is needed on the biophysical and sociocultural processes driving the urban climate system. In this study, we work with citizen scientists to deploy a high-density network of microsensors across a climate gradient to characterize geographic variation in neighborhood meso- and micro-climates. This research asks: How do urbanization, global climate, and vegetation interact across multiple scales to affect local-scale experiences of temperature? Additionally, citizen scientist-led efforts generated research questions focused on examining microclimatic differences among yard groundcover types (rock mulch vs. lawn vs. artificial turf) and also on variation in temperature related to tree cover. Combining sensor measurements with Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) spatial models and satellite-based temperature, we estimate spatially-explicit maps of land surface temperature and air temperature to illustrate the substantial difference between surface and air urban heat island intensities and the variable degree of coupling between land surface and air temperature in urban areas. Our results show a strong coupling between air temperature variation and landcover for neighborhoods, with significant detectable signatures from tree cover and impervious surface. Temperature covaried most strongly with urbanization intensity at nighttime during peak summer season, when daily mean air temperature ranged from 12.8C to 30.4C across all groundcover types. The combined effects of neighborhood geography and vegetation determine where and how temperature and tree canopy vary within a city. This citizen science-enabled research shows how large-scale climate drivers and urbanization intensity jointly influence the nature and magnitude of coupling between air temperature and tree cover, and demonstrate how urban vegetation provides an important ecosystem service in cities by decreasing the intensity of local urban heat islands.

Thermal and hydric aspects of environmental heterogeneity in the pitcher plant mosquito

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kingsolver, J.G.

1979-12-01

In an attempt to define environmental heteogeneity and uncertainty in a meaningful manner, thermal and hydric aspects of the microenvironment of the pitcher plant mosquito (Wyeomyia smithii) were studied. Mechanistic mass and energy balance models were developed to predict surface temperatures in a Sphagnum bog and temperatures and water losses in Sarracenia purpurea pitchers. Field tests indicate that the models predicted surface and pitcher temperatures within 2 to 3/sup 0/C, and hourly and daily water losses from pitchers to within 30%, using only basic meteorological data as inputs. Experiments and observations in a natural population of W. smithii in northernmore » Michigan, USA revealed significant differences in larval developmental rate, voltinism, and larval mortality due to microclimatic effects. The model predicts larval developmental rates and voltinism for each micmicroclimate within 10%. Water loss smulations predict, and field observations confirm, that pitcher desiccation is a function of microclimate and pitcher size, and that rainfall patterns on the order of 5 to 30 d determine desiccation patterns. Identification of the spatial and temporal scale of both the environment and the organismic (population) phenomena in question is crucial to constructing a meaningful definition of environmental heterogeneity. Thermal and hydric components of environmental variation may plan an important role in the maintenance of fitness variation in W. smithii. These results support the hypothesis of Istock (1978) that environmental uncertainty favors mixed life history strategies in Wyeomyia.« less

High Frequency Data Acquisition System for Modelling the Impact of Visitors on the Thermo-Hygrometric Conditions of Archaeological Sites: A Casa di Diana (Ostia Antica, Italy) Case Study.

PubMed

Merello, Paloma; García-Diego, Fernando-Juan; Beltrán, Pedro; Scatigno, Claudia

2018-01-25

The characterization of the microclimatic conditions is fundamental for the preventive conservation of archaeological sites. In this context, the identification of the factors that influence the thermo-hygrometric equilibrium is key to determine the causes of cultural heritage deterioration. In this work, a characterization of the thermo-hygrometric conditions of Casa di Diana (Ostia Antica, Italy) is carried out analyzing the data of temperature and relative humidity recorded by a system of sensors with high monitoring frequency. Sensors are installed in parallel, calibrated and synchronized with a microcontroller. A data set of 793,620 data, arranged in a matrix with 66,135 rows and 12 columns, was used. Furthermore, the influence of human impact (visitors) is evaluated through a multiple linear regression model and a logistic regression model. The visitors do not affect the environmental humidity as it is very high and constant all the year. The results show a significant influence of the visitors in the upset of the thermal balance. When a tourist guide takes place, the probability that the hourly temperature variation reaches values higher than its monthly average is 10.64 times higher than it remains equal or less to its monthly average. The analysis of the regression residuals shows the influence of outdoor climatic variables in the thermal balance, such as solar radiation or ventilation.

"Evolution Canyon," a potential microscale monitor of global warming across life.

PubMed

Nevo, Eviatar

2012-02-21

Climatic change and stress is a major driving force of evolution. The effects of climate change on living organisms have been shown primarily on regional and global scales. Here I propose the "Evolution Canyon" (EC) microscale model as a potential life monitor of global warming in Israel and the rest of the world. The EC model reveals evolution in action at a microscale involving biodiversity divergence, adaptation, and incipient sympatric speciation across life from viruses and bacteria through fungi, plants, and animals. The EC consists of two abutting slopes separated, on average, by 200 m. The tropical, xeric, savannoid, "African" south-facing slope (AS = SFS) abuts the forested "European" north-facing slope (ES = NFS). The AS receives 200-800% higher solar radiation than the ES. The ES represents the south European forested maquis. The AS and ES exhibit drought and shade stress, respectively. Major adaptations on the AS are because of solar radiation, heat, and drought, whereas those on the ES relate to light stress and photosynthesis. Preliminary evidence suggests the extinction of some European species on the ES and AS. In Drosophila, a 10-fold higher migration was recorded in 2003 from the AS to ES. I advance some predictions that could be followed in diverse species in EC. The EC microclimatic model is optimal to track global warming at a microscale across life from viruses and bacteria to mammals in Israel, and in additional ECs across the planet.

“Evolution Canyon,” a potential microscale monitor of global warming across life

PubMed Central

Nevo, Eviatar

2012-01-01

Climatic change and stress is a major driving force of evolution. The effects of climate change on living organisms have been shown primarily on regional and global scales. Here I propose the “Evolution Canyon” (EC) microscale model as a potential life monitor of global warming in Israel and the rest of the world. The EC model reveals evolution in action at a microscale involving biodiversity divergence, adaptation, and incipient sympatric speciation across life from viruses and bacteria through fungi, plants, and animals. The EC consists of two abutting slopes separated, on average, by 200 m. The tropical, xeric, savannoid, “African” south-facing slope (AS = SFS) abuts the forested “European” north-facing slope (ES = NFS). The AS receives 200–800% higher solar radiation than the ES. The ES represents the south European forested maquis. The AS and ES exhibit drought and shade stress, respectively. Major adaptations on the AS are because of solar radiation, heat, and drought, whereas those on the ES relate to light stress and photosynthesis. Preliminary evidence suggests the extinction of some European species on the ES and AS. In Drosophila, a 10-fold higher migration was recorded in 2003 from the AS to ES. I advance some predictions that could be followed in diverse species in EC. The EC microclimatic model is optimal to track global warming at a microscale across life from viruses and bacteria to mammals in Israel, and in additional ECs across the planet. PMID:22308456

High Frequency Data Acquisition System for Modelling the Impact of Visitors on the Thermo-Hygrometric Conditions of Archaeological Sites: A Casa di Diana (Ostia Antica, Italy) Case Study

PubMed Central

Merello, Paloma; García-Diego, Fernando-Juan; Beltrán, Pedro; Scatigno, Claudia

2018-01-01

The characterization of the microclimatic conditions is fundamental for the preventive conservation of archaeological sites. In this context, the identification of the factors that influence the thermo-hygrometric equilibrium is key to determine the causes of cultural heritage deterioration. In this work, a characterization of the thermo-hygrometric conditions of Casa di Diana (Ostia Antica, Italy) is carried out analyzing the data of temperature and relative humidity recorded by a system of sensors with high monitoring frequency. Sensors are installed in parallel, calibrated and synchronized with a microcontroller. A data set of 793,620 data, arranged in a matrix with 66,135 rows and 12 columns, was used. Furthermore, the influence of human impact (visitors) is evaluated through a multiple linear regression model and a logistic regression model. The visitors do not affect the environmental humidity as it is very high and constant all the year. The results show a significant influence of the visitors in the upset of the thermal balance. When a tourist guide takes place, the probability that the hourly temperature variation reaches values higher than its monthly average is 10.64 times higher than it remains equal or less to its monthly average. The analysis of the regression residuals shows the influence of outdoor climatic variables in the thermal balance, such as solar radiation or ventilation. PMID:29370142

Managing Climate Change Refugia for Biodiversity ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Climate change threatens to create fundamental shifts in in the distributions and abundances of species. Given projected losses, increased emphasis on management for ecosystem resilience to help buffer fish and wildlife populations against climate change is emerging. Such efforts stake a claim for an adaptive, anticipatory planning response to the climate change threat. To be effective, approaches will need to address critical uncertainties in both the physical basis for projected landscape changes, as well as the biological responses of organisms. Recent efforts define future potential climate refugia based on air temperatures and associated microclimatic changes. These efforts reflect the relatively strong conceptual foundation for linkages between regional climate change and local responses and thermal dynamics. Yet important questions remain. Drawing on case studies, we illustrate some key uncertainties in the responses of species and their habitats to altered hydro-climatic regimes currently not well addressed by physical or ecological models. These uncertainties need not delay anticipatory planning, but rather highlight the need for identification and communication of actions with high probabilities of success, and targeted research within an adaptive management framework.In this workshop, we will showcase the latest science on climate refugia and participants will interact through small group discussions, relevant examples, and facilitated dialogue to i

Hydrolysis of Baltic amber during thermal ageing--an infrared spectroscopic approach.

PubMed

Pastorelli, Gianluca; Shashoua, Yvonne; Richter, Jane

2013-04-01

To enable conservation of amber in museums, understanding of chemical changes is crucial. While oxidation has been investigated particularly well for this natural polymer, further degradation phenomena in relation to humidity and pollutants are poorly studied or still unknown. Attenuated total reflectance-Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy was explored with regard to Baltic amber. A systematic spectroscopic survey of a wide range of thermally aged model amber samples, exposed to different microclimatic conditions, showed significant changes in their spectra. Samples aged in a humid and acidic environment or exposed to a humid and alkaline atmosphere generally exhibited a higher absorbance intensity of carbonyl groups at frequencies assigned to acids than unaged samples, samples aged in drier conditions and samples immersed in an alkaline solution. Baltic amber comprises succinate ester, which may be hydrolysed into communol and succinic acid. The survey thus provided evidence about the progress of hydrolytic reactions during degradation of Baltic amber. Infrared spectroscopy was shown to have significant potential for providing qualitative and quantitative chemical information on hydrolysis of amber, which will be of interest for the development of preventive conservation techniques for museum collections of amber objects. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Microgeographic genome size differentiation of the carob tree, Ceratonia siliqua, at 'Evolution Canyon', Israel.

PubMed

Bures, Petr; Pavlícek, Tomás; Horová, Lucie; Nevo, Eviatar

2004-05-01

We tested whether the local differences in genome size recorded earlier in the wild barley, Hordeum spontaneum, at 'Evolution Canyon', Mount Carmel, Israel, can also be found in other organisms. As a model species for our test we chose the evergreen carob tree, Ceratonia siliqua. Genome size was measured by means of DAPI flow cytometry. In adults, significantly more DNA was recorded in trees growing on the more illuminated, warmer, drier, microclimatically more fluctuating 'African' south-facing slope than in trees on the opposite, less illuminated, cooler and more humid, 'European' north-facing slope in spite of an interslope distance of only 100 m at the canyon bottom and 400 m at the top. The amount of DNA was significantly negatively correlated with leaf length and tree circumference. In seedlings, interslope differences in the amount of genome DNA were not found. In addition, the first cases of triploidy and tetraploidy were found in C. siliqua. The data on C. siliqua at 'Evolution Canyon' showed that local variability in the C-value exists in this species and that ecological stress might be a strong evolutionary driving force in shaping the amount of DNA.

Improving detection probabilities for pests in stored grain.

PubMed

Elmouttie, David; Kiermeier, Andreas; Hamilton, Grant

2010-12-01

The presence of insects in stored grain is a significant problem for grain farmers, bulk grain handlers and distributors worldwide. Inspection of bulk grain commodities is essential to detect pests and thereby to reduce the risk of their presence in exported goods. It has been well documented that insect pests cluster in response to factors such as microclimatic conditions within bulk grain. Statistical sampling methodologies for grain, however, have typically considered pests and pathogens to be homogeneously distributed throughout grain commodities. In this paper, a sampling methodology is demonstrated that accounts for the heterogeneous distribution of insects in bulk grain. It is shown that failure to account for the heterogeneous distribution of pests may lead to overestimates of the capacity for a sampling programme to detect insects in bulk grain. The results indicate the importance of the proportion of grain that is infested in addition to the density of pests within the infested grain. It is also demonstrated that the probability of detecting pests in bulk grain increases as the number of subsamples increases, even when the total volume or mass of grain sampled remains constant. This study underlines the importance of considering an appropriate biological model when developing sampling methodologies for insect pests. Accounting for a heterogeneous distribution of pests leads to a considerable improvement in the detection of pests over traditional sampling models. Copyright © 2010 Society of Chemical Industry.

Microclimatic, chemical, and mineralogical evidence for tafoni weathering processes on the Miaowan Island, South China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Rihui; Wang, Wei

2017-02-01

Tafoni were widely distributed around the world; however, their processes of development remain unclear. In this study, the roles of microclimatic, geochemical and mineralogical processes on tafoni development along the subtropical coastline of the Miaowan Island, south China, are investigated. Field observations were carried out during three visits to the island over a four-year period (2011-2015). The orientation of 184 tafoni openings were measured, and micrometeorological changes of three tafoni on opposite sides of the island were monitored by pocket weather trackers (Kestrel 4500) in two periods. Samples of residual debris inside three tafoni hosted in a large boulder, the parent rock of the tafoni, and from the weathering profile of a nearby bedrock outcrop were collected for X-ray fluorescence (XRF) and X-ray diffraction (XRD) analyses. The field observations showed that tafoni were of different sizes and constantly produced flakes and debris inside the tafoni caves, indicating their on-going active development. An increase in Na in residual debris in tafoni caves on the Miaowan Island is the most obvious evidence of salt weathering. Salt weathering inside tafoni caves is not intense and does not match the salt-rich environment outside the caves, indicating that the influence of salt is not strong. The loss of K, Ca, and Mg in the residue samples, and the appearance of the clay mineral montmorillonite are caused by chemical weathering. Most of the tafoni openings face mountains, demonstrating the effect of humidity in tafoni weathering. Tafoni cave shapes are related to the distribution of humid water vapour, which tends to collect at the top of the cave, and leads to more intensive development here than in other parts. Drastic daily changes in relative humidity inside tafoni caves accelerate mechanical weathering owing to swelling and shrinking of salt and clay minerals. The Miaowan Island tafoni are formed by weathering, but they cannot be simply interpreted as the product of a single weathering process.

Assessment of urban green space structures and their quality from a multidimensional perspective.

PubMed

Daniels, Benjamin; Zaunbrecher, Barbara S; Paas, Bastian; Ottermanns, Richard; Ziefle, Martina; Roß-Nickoll, Martina

2018-02-15

Facing the growing amount of people living in cities and, at the same time, the need for a compact and sustainable urban development to mitigate urban sprawl, it becomes increasingly important that green spaces in compact cities are designed to meet the various needs within an urban environment. Urban green spaces have a multitude of functions: Maintaining ecological processes and resulting services, e.g. providing habitat for animals and plants, providing a beneficial city microclimate as well as recreational space for citizens. Regarding these requirements, currently existing assessment procedures for green spaces have some major shortcomings, which are discussed in this paper. It is argued why a more detailed spatial level as well as a distinction between natural and artificial varieties of structural elements is justified and needed and how the assessment of urban green spaces benefits from the multidimensional perspective that is applied. By analyzing a selection of structural elements from an ecological, microclimatic and social perspective, indicator values are derived and a new, holistic metrics 1 is proposed. The results of the integrated analysis led to two major findings: first, that for some elements, the evaluation differs to a great extent between the different perspectives (disciplines) and second, that natural and artificial varieties are, in most cases, evaluated considerably different from each other. The differences between the perspectives call for an integrative planning policy which acknowledges the varying contribution of a structural element to different purposes (ecological, microclimatic, social) as well as a discussion about the prioritization of those purposes. The differences in the evaluation of natural vs. artificial elements verify the assumption that indicators which consider only generic elements fail to account for those refinements and are thus less suitable for planning and assessment purposes. Implications, challenges and scenarios for the application of such a metrics are finally discussed. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of microbiological air quality and of microclimate in university classrooms.

PubMed

Grisoli, Pietro; Rodolfi, Marinella; Chiara, Tiziana; Zonta, Laura Attinia; Dacarro, Cesare

2012-07-01

The proliferation of air-diffused microorganisms inside public buildings such as schools, hospitals, and universities, is often indicated as a possible health risk. In this research, we have illustrated the results of an investigation realized to determine the health of the air in some university classrooms, both from a microbiological and a microclimatic viewpoint, during the normal didactic activity of direct lessons. The results obtained have been expressed by means of contamination indices, already used in previous works. Very little contamination was recorded in the different phases of air treatment, which underlines the efficiency of the system and of the maintenance protocols. The Global Index of Microbial Contamination (GIMC per cubic meter) showed a value greater than the mean during the heating period (290), while the highest values (95th percentile 1,138.45) were recorded in the period using air conditioning. The index of mesophilic bacterial contamination, though it did not show any significant differences in the various modes of air treatment, showed a mean value (1.34) and the 95th percentile value (4.14), which was greater in the air-conditioning phase. Finally, the mean value of the amplification index underlined a decrease in the microbial contamination in comparison to the outside, while showing situations of increased microbial amplification during the period of simple ventilation (95th percentile 4.27). The 95th percentile values found for GICM in the three sampling periods, however, permitted us to identify the value of GIMC per cubic meter equal to 1,000 as a guide to provide a means of self-monitoring the quality of the air inside the classrooms. From a microclimatic viewpoint, two periods of the year manifested discomfort situations: during the heating phase (winter) and during the simple ventilation phase (spring). The results obtained indicate, therefore, a need to intervene on the environmental parameters, not being able, in this particular case, to intervene on other aspects that influence the microclimate.

Land use not litter quality is a stronger driver of decomposition in hyperdiverse tropical forest.

PubMed

Both, Sabine; Elias, Dafydd M O; Kritzler, Ully H; Ostle, Nick J; Johnson, David

2017-11-01

In hyperdiverse tropical forests, the key drivers of litter decomposition are poorly understood despite its crucial role in facilitating nutrient availability for plants and microbes. Selective logging is a pressing land use with potential for considerable impacts on plant-soil interactions, litter decomposition, and nutrient cycling. Here, in Borneo's tropical rainforests, we test the hypothesis that decomposition is driven by litter quality and that there is a significant "home-field advantage," that is positive interaction between local litter quality and land use. We determined mass loss of leaf litter, collected from selectively logged and old-growth forest, in a fully factorial experimental design, using meshes that either allowed or precluded access by mesofauna. We measured leaf litter chemical composition before and after the experiment. Key soil chemical and biological properties and microclimatic conditions were measured as land-use descriptors. We found that despite substantial differences in litter quality, the main driver of decomposition was land-use type. Whilst inclusion of mesofauna accelerated decomposition, their effect was independent of land use and litter quality. Decomposition of all litters was slower in selectively logged forest than in old-growth forest. However, there was significantly greater loss of nutrients from litter, especially phosphorus, in selectively logged forest. The analyses of several covariates detected minor microclimatic differences between land-use types but no alterations in soil chemical properties or free-living microbial composition. These results demonstrate that selective logging can significantly reduce litter decomposition in tropical rainforest with no evidence of a home-field advantage. We show that loss of key limiting nutrients from litter (P & N) is greater in selectively logged forest. Overall, the findings hint at subtle differences in microclimate overriding litter quality that result in reduced decomposition rates in selectively logged forests and potentially affect biogeochemical nutrient cycling in the long term.

Observation of daily and annular variations in the 214Po half-life

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alexeev, E. N.; Gavrilyuk, Yu. M.; Gangapshev, A. M.; Gezhaev, A. M.; Kazalov, V. V.; Kuzminov, V. V.; Panasenko, S. I.; Ratkevich, S. S.

2017-11-01

Results of the analysis of a time series of values of the half-life (τ) of the 214Po nucleus with a different time step obtained from the TAU-1 (354 days) and TAU-2 (973 days) installations are presented. The annual variation with an amplitude of (9.8 ± 0.6) × 10-4 and daily variations in the solar, lunar, and sidereal times with amplitudes of (5.3 ± 0.3) × 10-4, (6.9 ± 2.0) × 10-4, and (7.2 ± 1.2) × 10-4, respectively, are found in the series of τ values. It is shown that variations in microclimatic parameters cannot be a cause of τ variations.

Vulnerability of island tropical montane cloud forests to climate change, with special reference to East Maui, Hawaii

USGS Publications Warehouse

Loope, Lloyd L.; Giambelluca, Thomas W.

1998-01-01

Island tropical montane cloud forests may be among the most sensitive of the world's ecosystems to global climate change. Measurements in and above a montane cloud forest on East Maui, Hawaii, document steep microclimatic gradients. Relatively small climate-driven shifts in patterns of atmospheric circulation are likely to trigger major local changes in rainfall, cloud cover, and humidity. Increased interannual variability in precipitation and hurricane incidence would provide additional stresses on island biota that are highly vulnerable to disturbance-related invasion of non-native species. Because of the exceptional sensitivity of these microclimates and forests to change, they may provide valuable ‘listening posts’ for detecting the onset of human-induced global climate change.

The hydrodynamics of plant spacing distance: Optimizing consumptive and non-consumptive water use in water-limited environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trautz, A.; Illangasekare, T. H.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.; Howington, S. E.

2017-12-01

The availability of soil moisture in water-stressed environments is one of the primary factors controlling plant performance and overall plant community productivity and structure. The minimization of non-consumptive water loss, or water not utilized by plants (i.e. consumptive use), to bare soil evaporation is a key plant survival strategy and important agricultural consideration. Competitive (negative) and facilitative (positive) interactions between individual plants play a pivotal role in controlling the local coupled soil-plant-atmosphere hydrodynamics that affect both consumptive and non-consumptive water use. The strength of these two types of interactions vary with spacing distance between individuals. In a recent PNAS publication, we hypothesized that there exists a quantifiable spacing distance between plants that optimizes the balance between competition and facilitation, and hence maximizes water conservation. This study expands upon on our previous work, for which only a subset of the data generated was used, through the development and testing of a numerical model that can test a conceptual model we presented. The model simulates soil-plant-atmosphere continuum heat and mass transfer hydrodynamics, taking into account the complex feedbacks that exist between the near-surface atmosphere, subsurface, and plants. This model has been developed to explore the combined effects of subsurface competition and micro-climatic amelioration (i.e., facilitation) on local soil moisture redistribution and fluxes in the context of water-stressed environments that experienced sustained winds. We believe the results have the potential to provide new insights into climatological, ecohydrological, and hydrological problems pertaining to: the extensively used and much debated stress-gradient hypothesis, plant community population self-organization, agricultural best practices (e.g., water management), and spatial heterogeneity of land-atmosphere fluxes.

Potential impacts of climate variability on dengue hemorrhagic fever in Honduras, 2010.

PubMed

Zambrano, L I; Sevilla, C; Reyes-García, S Z; Sierra, M; Kafati, R; Rodriguez-Morales, A J; Mattar, S

2012-12-01

Climate change and variability are affecting human health and disease direct or indirectly through many mechanisms. Dengue is one of those diseases that is strongly influenced by climate variability; however its study in Central America has been poorly approached. In this study, we assessed potential associations between macroclimatic and microclimatic variation and dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) cases in the main hospital of Honduras during 2010. In this year, 3,353 cases of DHF were reported in the Hospital Escuela, Tegucigalpa. Climatic periods marked a difference of 158% in the mean incidence of cases, from El Niño weeks (-99% of cases below the mean incidence) to La Niña months (+59% of cases above it) (p<0.01). Linear regression showed significantly higher dengue incidence with lower values of Oceanic Niño Index (p=0.0097), higher rain probability (p=0.0149), accumulated rain (p=0.0443) and higher relative humidity (p=0.0292). At a multiple linear regression model using those variables, ONI values shown to be the most important and significant factor found to be associated with the monthly occurrence of DHF cases (r²=0.649; βstandardized=-0.836; p=0.01). As has been shown herein, climate variability is an important element influencing the dengue epidemiology in Honduras. However, it is necessary to extend these studies in this and other countries in the Central America region, because these models can be applied for surveillance as well as for prediction of dengue.

Working conditions and health of the employees of public bus and trolleybus transport in Lithuania.

PubMed

Obelenis, Vytautas; Gedgaudiene, Daiva; Vasilavicius, Paulius

2003-01-01

A questionnaire was used for investigation of 788 workers from three transport enterprises. The questionnaire was used for evaluation of occupational environment, lifestyle, psychosocial factors and self-evaluation of health. The most harmful occupational factors are unsatisfactory microclimatic conditions, diesel fuel, cooling oil, vibration, musculoskeletal load, and mental tension. Worker's lifestyle isn't healthy: 46% of them are smoking, 83% are drinking alcohol, 53% are physically inactive, 82% have bad nutrition regimen, 27% are everyday suffering from stressful situations. Main health impairments are musculoskeletal (46.2%), respiratory tract (22.2%), gastrointestinal (17.3%) and central nervous system (32.2%) diseases. Musculoskeletal disorders are statistically related to bad ergonomic work conditions, long workday hours, aged employees and long work experience of workers (p<0.05-0.002).

Microbiological Analysis of Surfaces of Leonardo Da Vinci's Atlantic Codex: Biodeterioration Risk.

PubMed

Tarsitani, Gianfranco; Moroni, Catia; Cappitelli, Francesca; Pasquariello, Giovanna; Maggi, Oriana

2014-01-01

Following the discovery of discoloration on some pages of the Atlantic Codex (AC) of Leonardo da Vinci kept in the Biblioteca Ambrosiana in Milan, some investigations have been carried out to verify the presence of microorganisms, such as bacteria and fungi. To verify the presence of microorganisms a noninvasive method of sampling has been used that was efficient and allowed us to highlight the microbial facies of the material that was examined using conventional microbiological techniques. The microclimatic conditions in the storage room as well as the water content of the volume were also assessed. The combined observations allowed the conclusion that the discoloration of suspected biological origin on some pages of AC is not related to the presence or current attack of microbial agents.

Microbiological Analysis of Surfaces of Leonardo Da Vinci's Atlantic Codex: Biodeterioration Risk

PubMed Central

Moroni, Catia; Pasquariello, Giovanna; Maggi, Oriana

2014-01-01

Following the discovery of discoloration on some pages of the Atlantic Codex (AC) of Leonardo da Vinci kept in the Biblioteca Ambrosiana in Milan, some investigations have been carried out to verify the presence of microorganisms, such as bacteria and fungi. To verify the presence of microorganisms a noninvasive method of sampling has been used that was efficient and allowed us to highlight the microbial facies of the material that was examined using conventional microbiological techniques. The microclimatic conditions in the storage room as well as the water content of the volume were also assessed. The combined observations allowed the conclusion that the discoloration of suspected biological origin on some pages of AC is not related to the presence or current attack of microbial agents. PMID:25574171

Soil Surface Organic Layers in Alaska's Arctic Foothills: Development, Distribution and Microclimatic Feedbacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baughman, C. A.; Mann, D. H.; Verbyla, D.; Valentine, D.; Kunz, M. L.; Heiser, P. A.

2013-12-01

Accumulated organic matter at the ground surface plays an important role in arctic ecosystems. These soil surface organic layers (SSOLs) influence temperature, moisture, and chemistry in the underlying mineral soil and, on a global basis, comprise enormous stores of labile carbon. Understanding the dynamics of SSOLs is prerequisite to modeling the responses of arctic ecosystem processes to climate changes. Here, we ask three questions regarding SSOLs in the Arctic Foothills in northern Alaska: 1) What environmental factors control their spatial distribution? 2) How long do they take to form? 3) What is the relationship between SSOL thickness and mineral soil temperature through the growing season? The best topographically-controlled predictors of SSOL thickness and spatial distribution are duration of sunlight during the growing-season, upslope drainage area, slope gradient, and elevation. SSOLs begin to form within several decades following disturbance but require 500-700 years to reach equilibrium states. Once formed, mature SSOLs lower peak growing-season temperature and mean annual temperature in the underlying mineral horizon by 8° and 3° C respectively, which reduces available growing degree days within the upper mineral soil by nearly 80%. How ongoing climate change in northern Alaska will affect the region's SSOLs is an open and potentially crucial question.

Atmospheric deposition and ozone levels in Swiss forests: are critical values exceeded?

PubMed

Waldner, Peter; Schaub, Marcus; Graf Pannatier, Elisabeth; Schmitt, Maria; Thimonier, Anne; Walthert, Lorenz

2007-05-01

Air pollution affects forest health through atmospheric deposition of acidic and nitrogen compounds and elevated levels of tropospheric ozone (O3). In 1985, a monitoring network was established across Europe and various research efforts have since been undertaken to define critical values. We measured atmospheric deposition of acidity and nitrogen as well as ambient levels of O3 on 12, 13, and 14 plots, respectively, in the framework of the Swiss Long-Term Forest Ecosystem Research (LWF) in the period from 1995 to 2002. We estimated the critical loads of acidity and of nitrogen, using the steady state mass balance approach, and calculated the critical O3 levels using the AOT40 approach. The deposition of acidity exceeded the critical loads on 2 plots and almost reached them on 4 plots. The median of the measured molar ratio of base nutrient cations to total dissolved aluminium (Bc/Al) in the soil solution was higher than the critical value of 1 for all depths, and also at the plots with an exceedance of the critical load of acidity. For nitrogen, critical loads were exceeded on 8 plots and deposition likely represents a long-term ecological risk on 3 to 10 plots. For O3, exceedance of critical levels was recorded on 12 plots, and led to the development of typical O3-induced visible injury on trees and shrubs, but not for all plots due to (1) the site specific composition of O3 sensitive and tolerant plant species, and (2) the influence of microclimatic site conditions on the stomatal behaviour, i.e., O3 uptake.

Vapor pressure deficit predicts epiphyte abundance across an elevational gradient in a tropical montane region.

PubMed

Gotsch, Sybil G; Davidson, Kenneth; Murray, Jessica G; Duarte, Vanessa J; Draguljić, Danel

2017-12-01

Tropical Montane Cloud Forests (TMCFs) are important ecosystems to study and preserve because of their high biodiversity and critical roles in local and regional ecosystem processes. TMCFs may be particularly affected by changes in climate because of the narrow bands of microclimate they occupy and the vulnerability of TMCF species to projected increases in cloud base heights and drought. A comprehensive understanding of the structure and function of TMCFs is lacking and difficult to attain because of variation in topography within and across TMCF sites. This causes large differences in microclimate and forest structure at both large and small scales. In this study, we estimated the abundance of the entire epiphyte community in the canopy (bryophytes, herbaceous vascular plants, woody epiphytes, and canopy dead organic matter) in six sites. In each of the sites we installed a complete canopy weather station to link epiphyte abundance to a number of microclimatic parameters. We found significant differences in epiphyte abundance across the sites; epiphyte abundance increased with elevation and leaf wetness, but decreased as vapor pressure deficit (VPD) increased. Epiphyte abundance had the strongest relationship with VPD; there were differences in VPD that could not be explained by elevation alone. By measuring this proxy of canopy VPD, TMCF researchers will better understand differences in microclimate and plant community composition across TMCF sites. Incorporating such information in comparative studies will allow for more meaningful comparisons across TMCFs and will further conservation and management efforts in this ecosystem. © 2017 Botanical Society of America.

Distribution of a climate-sensitive species at an interior range margin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ray, Chris; Beever, Erik; Rodhouse, Thomas J.

2016-01-01

Advances in understanding the factors that limit a species’ range, particularly in the context of climate change, have come disproportionately through investigations at range edges or margins. The margins of a species’ range might often correspond with anomalous microclimates that confer habitat suitability where the species would otherwise fail to persist. We addressed this hypothesis using data from an interior, climatic range margin of the American pika (Ochotona princeps), an indicator of relatively cool, mesic climates in rocky habitats of western North America. Pikas in Lava Beds National Monument, northeastern California, USA, occur at elevations much lower than predicted by latitude and longitude. We hypothesized that pika occurrence within Lava Beds would be associated primarily with features such as “ice caves” in which sub-surface ice persists outside the winter months. We used data loggers to monitor sub-surface temperatures at cave entrances and at non-cave sites, confirming that temperatures were cooler and more stable at cave entrances. We surveyed habitat characteristics and evidence of pika occupancy across a random sample of cave and non-cave sites over a 2-yr period. Pika detection probability was high (~0.97), and the combined occupancy of cave and non-cave sites varied across the 2 yr from 27% to 69%. Contrary to our hypothesis, occupancy was not higher at cave sites. Vegetation metrics were the best predictors of site use by pikas, followed by an edge effect and elevation. The importance of vegetation as a predictor of pika distribution at this interior range margin is congruent with recent studies from other portions of the species’ range. However, we caution that vegetation composition depends on microclimate, which might be the proximal driver of pika distribution. The microclimates available in non-cave crevices accessible to small animals have not been characterized adequately for lava landscapes. We advocate innovation in the acquisition and use of microclimatic data for understanding the distributions of many taxa. Appropriately scaled microclimatic data are increasingly available but rarely used in studies of range dynamics.

[Effects of forest gap size and within-gap position on the microclimate in Pinus koraiensis-dominated broadleaved mixed forest].

PubMed

Feng, Jing; Duan, Wen-Biao; Chen, Li-Xin

2012-07-01

HOBO automatic weather stations were installed in the central parts and at the south, north, east, and west edges of large, medium, and small gaps in a Pinus koraiensis-dominated broadleaved mixed forest in Xiaoxing' anling Mountains to measure the air temperature, relative humidity, and photosynthetic photon flux density (PPFD) in these locations and the total radiation and precipitation in the gap centres from June to September 2010, taking the closed forest stand and open field as the controls. The differences in the microclimate between various size forest gaps and between the gap centers and their edges as well as the variations of the microclimatic factors over time were analyzed, and the effects of sunny and overcast days on the diurnal variations of the microclimatic factors within forest gaps were compared, aimed to offer basic data and practice reference for gap regeneration and sustainable management of Pinus koraiensis-dominated broadleaved mixed forest. The PPFD was decreased in the order of large gap, medium gap, and small gap. For the same gaps, the PPFD in gap centre was greater than that in gap edge. The mean monthly air temperature and total radiation in gap centres were declined in the sequence of July, June, August, and September, and the amplitudes of the two climatic factors were decreased in the order of open field, large gap, medium gap, small gap, and closed forest stand. The mean monthly relative humidity in gap centres dropped in the order of August, July, September, and June, and the amplitude of this climatic factor was decreased in the sequence of closed forest stand, small gap, medium gap, large gap, and open field. The total and monthly precipitations for the three different size gaps and open field during measurement period generally decreased in the order of open field, large gap, medium gap, small gap, and closed forest stand. In sunny days, the variations of PPFD, air temperature, and relative humidity were greater in large gap than in small gap, but in overcast days, it was in opposite.

Evaluation of permafrost conditions in non-alpine scree slopes in Central Europe by geophysical methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gude, M.; Hauck, C.; Kneisel, C.; Krause, S.; Molenda, R.; Ruzicka, V.; Zacharda, M.

2003-04-01

Many slope sections covered with blocky material situated in Central European highlands display special microclimatic conditions that resemble those of high latitude or high altitude periglacial areas. In some of these screes even permafrost-like conditions are detected although they are located on elevations fairly below 1000 m a.s.l. These conditions are accompanied by a circulation of air through the open void system, which effects a formation of an ice body during winter by re-sublimation of air humidity, supported by refreezing water from snow melt and precipitation. This ice body is assumed to prevail during the entire summer. Population genetic investigations on alpine and polar beetle species that inhabit the screes proof the continuous existence of the extraordinary cool conditions with probable permafrost throughout the Holocene - i.e. these periglacial-like condition are relatively stable despite all Holocene climatic variations. Observations of summer ice and numerous temperature measurements lead to the assumption of permafrost with enduring ice in the open voids as an integral factor of the microclimatic system. To evaluate its existence the underground was investigated in seven European screes by means of DC resistivity and refraction seismic in early summer. In order to solve the multi-phase subsurface structures, tomographic survey and inversion techniques are necessary, as 1-dimensional plane layer approximations are usually invalid. The results clearly reveal seismic and resistivity anomalies e.g. in the Klic scree (50°49'N, 14°04'E, base at 524 m a.s.l.) in Northern Bohemia. Within a blocky layer of about 10 m high thickness velocity anomalies (2000-3000 m/s) indicate the existence of a small ground ice body, which is confirmed by the synchronous detection of resistivity anomalies in the same place. These conditions are confined to steep scree slopes in regions with thin winter snow cover to enable air circulation. It is probable, that these effects are also found in alpine regions, where they cause a significant depression of the current lower permafrost limit.

Can temperate insects take the heat? A case study of the physiological and behavioural responses in a common ant, Iridomyrmex purpureus (Formicidae), with potential climate change.

PubMed

Andrew, Nigel R; Hart, Robert A; Jung, Myung-Pyo; Hemmings, Zac; Terblanche, John S

2013-09-01

Insects in temperate regions are predicted to be at low risk of climate change relative to tropical species. However, these assumptions have generally been poorly examined in all regions, and such forecasting fails to account for microclimatic variation and behavioural optimisation. Here, we test how a population of the dominant ant species, Iridomyrmex purpureus, from temperate Australia responds to thermal stress. We show that ants regularly forage for short periods (minutes) at soil temperatures well above their upper thermal limits (upper lethal temperature = 45.8 ± 1.3°C; CT(max) = 46.1°C) determined over slightly longer periods (hours) and do not show any signs of a classic thermal performance curve in voluntary locomotion across soil surface temperatures of 18.6-57°C (equating to a body temperature of 24.5-43.1°C). Although ants were present all year round, and dynamically altered several aspects of their thermal biology to cope with low temperatures and seasonal variation, temperature-dependence of running speed remained invariant and ants were unable to elevate high temperature tolerance using plastic responses. Measurements of microclimate temperature were higher than ant body temperatures during the hottest part of the day, but exhibited a stronger relationship with each other than air temperatures from the closest weather station. Generally close associations of ant activity and performance with microclimatic conditions, possibly to maximise foraging times, suggest I. purpureus displays highly opportunistic thermal responses and readily adjusts behaviour to cope with high trail temperatures. Increasing frequency or duration of high temperatures is therefore likely to result in an immediate reduction in foraging efficiency. In summary, these results suggest that (1) soil-dwelling temperate insect populations may be at higher risks of thermal stress with increased frequency or duration of high temperatures resulting from climate change than previously thought, however, behavioural cues may be able to compensate to some extent; and (2) indices of climate change-related thermal stress, warming tolerance and thermal safety margin, are strongly influenced by the scale of climate metrics employed. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

On the problems related to natural wet bulb temperature indirect evaluation for the assessment of hot thermal environments by means of WBGT.

PubMed

D'Ambrosio Alfano, Francesca Romana; Palella, Boris Igor; Riccio, Giuseppe

2012-11-01

This paper deals with the indirect evaluation of the natural wet bulb temperature, t (nw), one of the two quantities forming the basis of the well-known wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) index, considered worldwide to be a suitable and user-friendly tool for the preliminary assessment of hot thermal environments. This quantity can be measured by a wet bulb thermometer (a temperature sensor covered with a wetted wick naturally ventilated) or, if this is not available, calculated from other microclimatic parameters (i.e. the air temperature, the globe temperature, the air velocity, and the humidity) using a quite trivial energy balance equation. Because of the strong non-linear structure of such an equation, the risk of a multiplicity of steady state solutions could result in the failure to obtain a reliable index evaluation. To dispel all doubts, this work carries out an in-depth analysis of the heat balance equation to be solved for the indirect evaluation of the natural wet bulb temperature. A preliminary investigation of each heat flow term involved in the heat balance on the sensor has been carried out; in a second phase a special continuation method has been implemented, highlighting the effect of microclimatic parameters on the multiplicity of solutions. Results show that under free convection the evaluation produces a single solution only under uniform conditions, whereas in the presence of even slight differences between the air temperature and the mean radiant temperature, there can be as many as three solutions. This phenomenon, if confirmed by a further experimental investigation, could become a difficult matter since a sensor, in principle, has to read a unique value of the quantity measured. In any case, from a numerical point of view, the presence of many values of tnw greatly reduces the possibility of an indirect WBGT calculation from the other involved physical quantities; as a consequence, the indirect evaluation of WBGT should be clearly avoided based on ISO 7243 Standard.

Final Report for High Latitude Climate Modeling: ARM Takes Us Beyond Case Studies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Russell, Lynn M; Lubin, Dan

2013-06-18

The main thrust of this project was to devise a method by which the majority of North Slope of Alaska (NSA) meteorological and radiometric data, collected on a daily basis, could be used to evaluate and improve global climate model (GCM) simulations and their parameterizations, particularly for cloud microphysics. Although the standard ARM Program sensors for a less complete suite of instruments for cloud and aerosol studies than the instruments on an intensive field program such as the 2008 Indirect and Semi-Direct Aerosol Campaign (ISDAC), the advantage they offer lies in the long time base and large volume of datamore » that covers a wide range of meteorological and climatological conditions. The challenge has been devising a method to interpret the NSA data in a practical way, so that a wide variety of meteorological conditions in all seasons can be examined with climate models. If successful, climate modelers would have a robust alternative to the usual “case study” approach (i.e., from intensive field programs only) for testing and evaluating their parameterizations’ performance. Understanding climate change on regional scales requires a broad scientific consideration of anthropogenic influences that goes beyond greenhouse gas emissions to also include aerosol-induced changes in cloud properties. For instance, it is now clear that on small scales, human-induced aerosol plumes can exert microclimatic radiative and hydrologic forcing that rivals that of greenhouse gas–forced warming. This project has made significant scientific progress by investigating what causes successive versions of climate models continue to exhibit errors in cloud amount, cloud microphysical and radiative properties, precipitation, and radiation balance, as compared with observations and, in particular, in Arctic regions. To find out what is going wrong, we have tested the models' cloud representation over the full range of meteorological conditions found in the Arctic using the ARM North Slope of Alaska (NSA) data.« less

Increasing the effectiveness of native forest regeneration and reforestation: towards climate-change adaptation in drylands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Branquinho, Cristina; Príncipe, Adriana; Nunes, Alice; Kobel, Melanie; Soares, Cristina; Pinho, Pedro

2016-04-01

The recent expansion of the semiarid climate to all the region of the south of Portugal and the growing impact of climate change demands local adaptation. The growth of the native forest represents a strategy at the ecosystem level to adapt to climate change since it increases resilience and increases also de delivery of ecosystem services such as the increment of organic matter in the soil, carbon and nitrogen, biodiversity, water infiltration, etc. Moreover decreases susceptibility to desertification. For that reason, large areas have been reforested in the south of Portugal with the native species holm oak and cork oak but with a low rate of effectiveness. Our goal in this work is to show how the cost-benefit relation of the actions intended to expand the forest of the Portuguese semiarid can be lowered by taking into account the microclimatic conditions and high spatial resolution management. The potential of forest regeneration was modelled at the local and regional level in the semiarid area using information concerning the Potential Solar Radiation. This model gives us the rate of native forest regeneration after a disturbance with high spatial resolution. Based on this model the territory was classified in: i) easy regeneration areas; ii) areas with the need of assisted reforestation, using methods that increase water and soil conservation; iii) areas of difficult reforestation because of the costs. Additionally a summary of the success of reforestations was made in the historical semiarid since the 60s based on the evaluation of a series of case studies, where we quantified the ecosystem services currently delivered by the reforested ecosystems. Acknowledgement: Programa Adapt: financed by EEA Grants and Fundo Português de Carbono

Modeling approaches to describe H2O and CO2 exchange in mare ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olchev, A.; Novenko, E.; Volkova, E.

2012-04-01

The modern climatic conditions is strongly influenced by both internal variability of climatic system, and various external natural and anthropogenic factors (IPCC 2007). Significant increase of concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and especially the growth of atmospheric CO2 due to human activity are considered as the main factors that are responsible for global warming and climate changes. A significant part of anthropogenic CO2 is absorbed from the atmosphere by land biota and especially by vegetation cover. However, it is still not completely clear what is the role of different land ecosystems and especially forests and mares in global cycles of H2O and CO2 and what is a sensitivity of these ecosystems to climate changes. Within the frameworks of this study the spatial and temporal variability of H2O and CO2 fluxes in different types of mare ecosystems of the forest-steppe zone in European part of Russia was described using modeling approaches and results of field measurements. For this modeling and experimental study the mare ecosystems of Tula region were selected. The Tula region is located mostly in the forest-steppe zone and it is unique area for such studies because almost all existed types of mare ecosystems of Northern Eurasia distinguished by a geomorphological position, water and mineral supply can be found there. Most mares in Tula region have a relatively small size and surrounded by very heterogeneous forests that make not possible an application of the classical measuring and modeling approaches e.g. an eddy covariance technique or one-dimensional H2O and CO2 exchange models for flux estimation in such sites. In our study to describe the radiation, sensible heat, H2O and CO2 exchange between such heterogeneous mare ecosystems and the atmosphere a three-dimensional model Forbog-3D and one-dimensional Mixfor-SVAT were applied. The main concept used in the Forbog-3D and Mixfor-SVAT models is an aggregated description of physical and biological processes at various hierarchical levels of forest and mire ecosystems: from a single leaf to a tree and an entire ecosystem. The models consist of the several closely coupled sub-models describing: transfer of direct and diffuse solar radiation; turbulent exchange of sensible heat, H2O and CO2 within and above a vegetation cover; transpiration, photosynthesis and respiration of vegetation and soil; heat and moisture transfer in different soil layers. The models were validated and applied to describe the H2O and CO2 exchange processes in various mare ecosystems with different relief position, type of water and mineral supply as well as vegetation composition. Selected mares are located in different parts of the Tula region (both in forest and forest-steppe zones) and characterized by different microclimatic conditions. The study was supported by grants (11-04-97538-r_center_a, 11-04-01622-a and 11-05-00557-a) of the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (RFBR) and by grant of Government of Russian Federation N 11.G34.31.0079.

Effects of five mulch materials on microclimatic conditions affecting the establishment of vegetation on minesoil

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cunningham, T.R.; Wittwer, R.F.

1980-12-01

The influence of five mulch materials (hardwood bark, hardwood bark with chicken manure, hardwood bark with composted sewage, pelletized grass by-products, and recycled magazine stock) on microclimate and their effect on the revegetation of mine spoils was evaluated. Four tree species (black walnut, Juglan nigra L., boxelder, Acer negundo L., Ohio buckeye, Aesculus glabra Willd., and eastern white pine, Pinus strobus L.) were spot-seeded and a forage mixture of tall fescue, Festuca arundinacea Schreb., orchard grass, Dactylis glomerata L., Dutch white clover, Trifolium repens L., and birdsfoot refoil, Lotus cornicalatans L. was broadcast as a cover. Minesoil temperature and moisture,more » germination, survival and height growth of trees, and percent cover by forages were variables measured. Chemical analysis for mineral content of the five mulch materials was obtained.« less

The revenge of time: fungal deterioration of cultural heritage with particular reference to books, paper and parchment.

PubMed

Sterflinger, Katja; Pinzari, Flavia

2012-03-01

Hyphomycetous fungi - so called 'mould'- are the most important agents of biodeterioration in museums, museums' storage rooms, in libraries, collections and restoration studios. Fungi are able to live at low water activities, they are perfectly adapted to indoor environments and thrive in microclimatic niches caused by condensation, lack of ventilation or water retention by hygroscopic materials. Fungi spoil valuable pieces of art aesthetically, mechanically, chemically and by degradation of organic components. Historical material made of paper and oil paintings with high amounts of organic binders are especially susceptible to fungal deterioration. In order to prevent fungal contamination or to treat already contaminated objects an integrated approach including climate control, material-specific cleaning and application of carefully selected biocides is necessary. © 2011 Society for Applied Microbiology and Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Potential impact of macroclimatic variability on the epidemiology of giardiasis in three provinces of Cuba, 2010-2012.

PubMed

Escobedo, Angel A; Almirall, Pedro; Rumbaut, Raisa; Rodríguez-Morales, Alfonso J

2015-01-01

Climate change and variability are common phenomena affecting various infectious diseases. Many studies have been performed on vector-borne diseases; however, few studies have addressed such influences on intestinal parasitic diseases (e.g., giardiasis). In this study, using nonlinear Poisson regression models, we assessed the potential associations between macroclimatic variation and giardiasis cases in children and school workers from three provinces of Cuba in the context of large sampling and parasitological assessment. Between 2010 and 2012, 293,019 subjects were assessed, resulting in 6357 positive for Giardia (216.95 cases/10,000 pop.; 95%CI 211.7-222.2). The variation in time for those giardiasis rates ranged from 35.8 to 525.8 cases/10,000 pop. Nonlinear Poisson regression models between the ONI index and the giardiasis incidence indicated a significant association (p<0.01). With lower values of ONI, lower incidence of giardiasis was observed at Havana (pseudo r(2)=0.0576; p<0.001) and Guantánamo (pseudo r(2)=0.0376; p<0.001). Although these results are preliminary and the magnitude of association is not higher, the results were of statistical significance. This result indicates the need to assess in detail in further studies the impact of additional macroclimatic and microclimatic variables on the epidemiology of this still important intestinal parasitic disease, not only in Cuba but also in other countries of the Caribbean and Latin American region. Copyright © 2014 King Saud Bin Abdulaziz University for Health Sciences. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Microclimate Data Improve Predictions of Insect Abundance Models Based on Calibrated Spatiotemporal Temperatures.

PubMed

Rebaudo, François; Faye, Emile; Dangles, Olivier

2016-01-01

A large body of literature has recently recognized the role of microclimates in controlling the physiology and ecology of species, yet the relevance of fine-scale climatic data for modeling species performance and distribution remains a matter of debate. Using a 6-year monitoring of three potato moth species, major crop pests in the tropical Andes, we asked whether the spatiotemporal resolution of temperature data affect the predictions of models of moth performance and distribution. For this, we used three different climatic data sets: (i) the WorldClim dataset (global dataset), (ii) air temperature recorded using data loggers (weather station dataset), and (iii) air crop canopy temperature (microclimate dataset). We developed a statistical procedure to calibrate all datasets to monthly and yearly variation in temperatures, while keeping both spatial and temporal variances (air monthly temperature at 1 km² for the WorldClim dataset, air hourly temperature for the weather station, and air minute temperature over 250 m radius disks for the microclimate dataset). Then, we computed pest performances based on these three datasets. Results for temperature ranging from 9 to 11°C revealed discrepancies in the simulation outputs in both survival and development rates depending on the spatiotemporal resolution of the temperature dataset. Temperature and simulated pest performances were then combined into multiple linear regression models to compare predicted vs. field data. We used an additional set of study sites to test the ability of the results of our model to be extrapolated over larger scales. Results showed that the model implemented with microclimatic data best predicted observed pest abundances for our study sites, but was less accurate than the global dataset model when performed at larger scales. Our simulations therefore stress the importance to consider different temperature datasets depending on the issue to be solved in order to accurately predict species abundances. In conclusion, keeping in mind that the mismatch between the size of organisms and the scale at which climate data are collected and modeled remains a key issue, temperature dataset selection should be balanced by the desired output spatiotemporal scale for better predicting pest dynamics and developing efficient pest management strategies.

Microclimate Data Improve Predictions of Insect Abundance Models Based on Calibrated Spatiotemporal Temperatures

PubMed Central

Rebaudo, François; Faye, Emile; Dangles, Olivier

2016-01-01

A large body of literature has recently recognized the role of microclimates in controlling the physiology and ecology of species, yet the relevance of fine-scale climatic data for modeling species performance and distribution remains a matter of debate. Using a 6-year monitoring of three potato moth species, major crop pests in the tropical Andes, we asked whether the spatiotemporal resolution of temperature data affect the predictions of models of moth performance and distribution. For this, we used three different climatic data sets: (i) the WorldClim dataset (global dataset), (ii) air temperature recorded using data loggers (weather station dataset), and (iii) air crop canopy temperature (microclimate dataset). We developed a statistical procedure to calibrate all datasets to monthly and yearly variation in temperatures, while keeping both spatial and temporal variances (air monthly temperature at 1 km² for the WorldClim dataset, air hourly temperature for the weather station, and air minute temperature over 250 m radius disks for the microclimate dataset). Then, we computed pest performances based on these three datasets. Results for temperature ranging from 9 to 11°C revealed discrepancies in the simulation outputs in both survival and development rates depending on the spatiotemporal resolution of the temperature dataset. Temperature and simulated pest performances were then combined into multiple linear regression models to compare predicted vs. field data. We used an additional set of study sites to test the ability of the results of our model to be extrapolated over larger scales. Results showed that the model implemented with microclimatic data best predicted observed pest abundances for our study sites, but was less accurate than the global dataset model when performed at larger scales. Our simulations therefore stress the importance to consider different temperature datasets depending on the issue to be solved in order to accurately predict species abundances. In conclusion, keeping in mind that the mismatch between the size of organisms and the scale at which climate data are collected and modeled remains a key issue, temperature dataset selection should be balanced by the desired output spatiotemporal scale for better predicting pest dynamics and developing efficient pest management strategies. PMID:27148077

Case study. Health hazards of automotive repair mechanics: thermal and lighting comfort, particulate matter and noise.

PubMed

Loupa, G

2013-01-01

An indoor environmental quality survey was conducted in a small private automotive repair shop during May 2009 (hot season) and February 2010 (cold season). It was established that the detached building, which is naturally ventilated and lit, had all the advantages of the temperate local climate. It provided a satisfactory microclimatic working environment, concerning the thermal and the lighting comfort, without excessive energy consumption for air-conditioning or lighting. Indoor number concentrations of particulate matter (PM) were monitored during both seasons. Their size distributions were strongly affected by the indoor activities and the air exchange rate of the building. During working hours, the average indoor/outdoor (I/O) number concentration ratio was 31 for PM0.3-1 in the hot season and 69 for the cold season. However I/O PM1-10 number concentration ratios were similar, 33 and 32 respectively, between the two seasons. The estimated indoor mass concentration of PM10 for the two seasons was on average 0.68 mg m(-3) and 1.19 mg m(-3), i.e., 22 and 36 times higher than outdoors, during the hot and the cold seasons, respectively. This is indicative that indoor air pollution may adversely affect mechanics' health. Noise levels were highly variable and the average LEX, 8 h of 69.3 dB(A) was below the European Union exposure limit value 87db (A). Noise originated from the use of manual hammers, the revving up of engines, and the closing of car doors or hoods. Octave band analysis indicated that the prevailing noise frequencies were in the area of the maximum ear sensitivity.

A continent-wide analysis of the shade requirements of red and western grey kangaroos

PubMed Central

Roberts, J. A.; Coulson, G.; Munn, A. J.; Kearney, M. R.

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT Foraging time may be constrained by a suite of phenomena including weather, which can restrict a species' activity and energy intake. This is recognized as pivotal for many species whose distributions are known to correlate with climate, including kangaroos, although such impacts are rarely quantified. We explore how differences in shade seeking, a thermoregulatory behavior, of 2 closely-related kangaroo species, Macropus rufus (red kangaroos) and M. fuliginosus (western grey kangaroos), might reflect differences in their distributions across Australia. We observed foraging and shade-seeking behavior in the field and, together with local weather observations, calculated threshold radiant temperatures (based on solar and infrared radiant heat loads) over which the kangaroos retreated to shade. We apply these calculated tolerance thresholds to hourly microclimatic estimates derived from daily-gridded weather data to predict activity constraints across the Australian continent over a 10-year period. M. fuliginosus spent more time than M. rufus in the shade (7.6 ± 0.7 h versus 6.4 ± 0.9 h) and more time foraging (11.8 ± 0.5 h vs. 10.0 ± 0.6 h), although total time resting was equivalent (∼8.2 h). M. rufus tolerated 19°C higher radiant temperatures than M. fuliginosus (89°C versus 70°C radiant temperature). Across Australia, we predicted M. fuliginosus to be more restricted to shade than M. rufus, with higher absolute shade requirements farther north. These results corroborate previous findings that M. rufus is more adept at dealing with heat than M. fuliginosus and indicate that M. rufus is less dependent on shade on a continental scale. PMID:27857963

Natural biological control of pest mites in Brazilian sun coffee agroecosystems.

PubMed

Teodoro, Adenir V; Sarmento, Renato A; Rêgo, Adriano S; da Graça S Maciel, Anilde

2010-06-01

Coffee is one of the leading commodities in tropical America. Although plantations are usually established under a canopy of trees in most producing countries in the region, Brazilian coffee is mostly produced under full sun conditions. Such simple, single-crop agroecosystems with intensive agrochemical inputs often suffer with pests like mites. Predatory mites of the family Phytoseiidae are the main natural enemies associated with pest mites in the field. However, these beneficial arthropods struggle to survive in intensive agroecosystems such as coffee monocultures due to unfavorable microclimatic conditions, widespread pesticide use, and lack of alternative food (pollen, nectar). Conservation biological control uses a range of management strategies to sustain and enhance populations of indigenous natural enemies such as predatory mites. We discuss here conservation biological control as a strategy to improve biological control of pest mites by native predatory mites in Brazilian coffee monocultures as well as some related patents.

The impact of clearcutting in boreal forests of Russia on soils: A review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dymov, A. A.

2017-07-01

Data on the impact of tree logging in boreal forests of Russia on soils are systematized. Patterns of soil disturbances and transformation of microclimatic parameters within clearcutting areas are discussed. Changes in the conditions of pedogenesis in secondary forests are analyzed. It is suggested that the changes in forest soils upon reforestation of clearcutting areas might be considered as specific post-logging soil successions. Data characterizing changes in the thickness of litter horizons and in the intensity of elementary pedogenic processes, acidity, and the content of exchangeable bases in soils of clearcutting areas in the course of their natural reforestation are considered. The examples of human-disturbed (turbated) soil horizons and newly formed anthropogenic soils on clearcutting areas are described. It is suggested that the soils on mechanically disturbed parts of clearcutting areas can be separated as a specific group of detritus turbozems.

Seasonal and Lunar Month Periods Observed in Natural Neutron Flux at High Altitude

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stenkin, Yuri; Alekseenko, Victor; Cai, Zeyu; Cao, Zhen; Cattaneo, Claudio; Cui, Shuwang; Giroletti, Elio; Gromushkin, Dmitry; Guo, Cong; Guo, Xuewen; He, Huihai; Liu, Ye; Ma, Xinhua; Shchegolev, Oleg; Vallania, Piero; Vigorito, Carlo; Zhao, Jing

2017-07-01

Air radon concentration measurement is useful for research on geophysical effects, but it is strongly sensitive to site geology and many geophysical and microclimatic processes such as wind, ventilation, air humidity and so on inducing very big fluctuations on the concentration of radon in air. On the contrary, monitoring the radon concentration in soil by measuring the thermal neutron flux reduces environmental effects. In this paper, we report some experimental results on the natural thermal neutron flux as well as on the concentration of air radon and its variations at 4300 m asl. These results were obtained with unshielded thermal neutron scintillation detectors (en-detectors) and radon monitors located inside the ARGO-YBJ experimental hall. The correlation of these variations with the lunar month and 1-year period is undoubtedly confirmed. A method for earthquake prediction provided by a global net of en-detectors is currently under study.

Wind farm and solar park effects on plant–soil carbon cycling: uncertain impacts of changes in ground-level microclimate

PubMed Central

Armstrong, Alona; Waldron, Susan; Whitaker, Jeanette; Ostle, Nicholas J

2014-01-01

Global energy demand is increasing as greenhouse gas driven climate change progresses, making renewable energy sources critical to future sustainable power provision. Land-based wind and solar electricity generation technologies are rapidly expanding, yet our understanding of their operational effects on biological carbon cycling in hosting ecosystems is limited. Wind turbines and photovoltaic panels can significantly change local ground-level climate by a magnitude that could affect the fundamental plant–soil processes that govern carbon dynamics. We believe that understanding the possible effects of changes in ground-level microclimates on these phenomena is crucial to reducing uncertainty of the true renewable energy carbon cost and to maximize beneficial effects. In this Opinions article, we examine the potential for the microclimatic effects of these land-based renewable energy sources to alter plant–soil carbon cycling, hypothesize likely effects and identify critical knowledge gaps for future carbon research. PMID:24132939

Assessment of Natural Ventilation System for a Typical Residential House in Poland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Antczak-Jarząbska, Romana; Krzaczek, Marek

2016-09-01

The paper presents the research results of field measurements campaign of natural ventilation performance and effectiveness in a residential building. The building is located in the microclimate whose parameters differ significantly in relation to a representative weather station. The measurement system recorded climate parameters and the physical variables characterizing the air flow in the rooms within 14 days of the winter season. The measurement results showed that in spite of proper design and construction of the ventilation system, unfavorable microclimatic conditions that differed from the predicted ones caused significant reduction in the efficiency of the ventilation system. Also, during some time periods, external climate conditions caused an opposite air flow direction in the vent inlets and outlets, leading to a significant deterioration of air quality and thermal comfort measured by CO2 concentration and PMV index in a residential area.

Plant and soil carbon accumulation following fire in Mediterranean woodlands in Spain.

PubMed

Kaye, Jason Philip; Romanyà, Joan; Vallejo, V Ramón

2010-10-01

We measured plant and soil carbon (C) storage following canopy-replacing wildfires in woodlands of northeastern Spain that include an understory of shrubs dominated by Quercus coccifera and an overstory of Pinus halepensis trees. Established plant succession models predict rapid shrub recovery in these ecosystems, and we build on this model by contrasting shrub succession with long-term C storage in soils, trees, and the whole ecosystem. We used chronosequence and repeated sampling approaches to detect change over time. Aboveground plant C increased from <100 to ~3,000 g C m(-2) over 30 years following fire, which is substantially less than the 5,942 ± 487 g C m(-2) (mean ±1 standard error) in unburned sites. As expected, shrubs accumulated C rapidly, but the capacity for C storage in shrubs was <600 g C m(-2). Pines were the largest plant C pool in sites >20 years post fire, and accounted for all of the difference in plant C between older burned sites and unburned sites. In contrast, soil C was initially higher in burned sites (~4,500 g C m(-2)) than in unburned sites (3,264 ± 261 g C m(-2)) but burned site C declined to unburned levels within 10 years after fire. Combining these results with prior research suggests two states for C storage. When pine regeneration is successful, ~9,200 g C m(-2) accumulate in woodlands but when tree regeneration fails (due to microclimatic stress or short fire return intervals), ecosystem C storage of ~4,000 g C m(-2) will occur in the resulting shrublands.

Biological induced corrosion of materials II: New test methods and experiences from mir station

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klintworth, R.; Reher, H. J.; Viktorov, A. N.; Bohle, D.

1999-09-01

During previous long-term manned missions, more than 100 species of microorganisms have been identified on surfaces of materials (bacteria and fungi). Among them were potentially pathogenic ones (saprophytes) which are capable of active growth on artificial substrates, as well as technophilic bacteria and fungi causing damages (destruction and degradation) to various materials (metals and polymers), resulting in failures and disruptions in the functioning of equipment and hardware. Aboard a space vehicle some microclimatic parameters are optimal for microorganism growth: the atmospheric fluid condensate with its specific composition, chemical and/or antropogenic contaminants (human metobolic products, etc.) all are stimulating factors for the development of bacteria and mould fungi on materials of the interior and equipment of an orbital station during its operational phase(s). Especially Russian long-term missions (SALJUT, MIR) have demonstrated that uncontrolled interactions of microorganisms with materials will ultimately lead to the appearence of technological and medical risks, significantly influencing safety and reliability characteristics of individual as well as whole systems and/ or subsystems. For a first conclusion, it could be summarized, that countermeasures and anti-strategies focussing on Microbial Contamination Management (MCM) for the International Space Station (ISS, next long-term manned mission) at least require a new materials test approach. Our respective concept includes a combined age-ing/biocorrosion test sequence. It is represented here, as well as current status of MCM program, e.g. continuous monitoring (microbiological analyses), long-term disinfection, frequent cleaning methods, mathematical modeling of ISS, etc.

Adapting forest to climate change in drylands: the Portuguese case-study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Branquinho, Cristina; Príncipe, Adriana; Nunes, Alice; Kobel, Melanie; Soares, Cristina; Vizinho, André; Serrano, Helena Cristina; Pinho, Pedro

2017-04-01

The recent expansion of the semiarid climate to all the region of the south of Portugal and the growing impact of climate change demands local adaptation. The growth of the native forest represents a strategy at the ecosystem level to adapt to climate change since it increases resilience and increases also de delivery of ecosystem services such as the increment of organic matter in the soil, carbon and nitrogen, biodiversity, water infiltration, etc. Moreover, decreases susceptibility to desertification. For that reason, large areas have been reforested in the south of Portugal with the native species holm oak and cork oak but with a low rate of effectiveness. Our goal in this work is to show how the cost-benefit relation of the actions intended to expand the forest of the Portuguese semiarid can be lowered by taking into account the microclimatic conditions and high spatial resolution management. The potential of forest regeneration was modelled at the local and regional level in the semiarid area using information concerning the Potential Solar Radiation. This model gives us the rate of native forest regeneration after a disturbance with high spatial resolution. Based on this model the territory was classified in: i) easy regeneration areas; ii) areas with the need of assisted reforestation, using methods that increase water and soil conservation; iii) areas of difficult reforestation because of the costs. Additionally, a summary of the success of reforestations was made in the historical semiarid since the 60s based on the evaluation of a series of case studies, where we quantified the ecosystem services currently delivered by the reforested ecosystems. We will discuss and propose a strategy for forests to adapt to climate change scenario in dryland Portugal. Acknowledgement: Programa Adapt: financed by EEA Grants and Fundo Português de Carbono and by FCT-MEC project PTDC/AAG-GLO/0045/2014.

A Geomorphologically Driven Conditional Assessment for the Study of Urban Stone Decay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnston, Brian; McKinley, Jennifer; Warke, Patricia; Ruffell, Alastair

2017-04-01

Much of humanity's legacy is within the built environment and therefore in the stones that have been used for its construction. This means that targeted building conservation strategies are vital when considering the maintenance of this heritage. Conditional assessments play a major part in these efforts by classifying blocks based upon their visual state of decay. However, as these tools were developed with the purpose of informing decision making by professionals in the construction and conservation industries, limitations exist when considering them as part of studies with a geomorphological focus. Links between the decay of stonework and spatially variable control factors, such as material properties, microclimatic conditions and pollutant distribution, have been well documented in past studies, with observations of decay on wall sections supporting this concept. For example, the distribution of weathering features can indicate that certain blocks are more susceptible than others to decay. Additionally, adjoining blocks can exhibit similar processes, suggestive of interaction between the blocks, indicating a linkage between individual block scale decay and processes acting at a wider wall scale. These observations have led to comparisons between the weathering of rock outcrops and building façades, with mortar joints playing the role of fractures or bedding. This comparison has highlighted the necessity to not simply consider decay in terms of architecture or engineering, but also in terms of the geomorphological processes taking place. The patterns of decay created at a wall scale, whilst being visually chaotic, can provide clues to the controlling factors acting upon this system, if they are subjected to informed scrutiny. Despite such discussions, the focus of surveys towards remediation have created limitations when applying the results of these surveys towards the understanding of processes acting between blocks at a wall scale. This work aims to take into consideration these limitations by undertaking two conditional assessments, using differing techniques, of wall sections at Fitzroy Presbyterian Church in Belfast. These assessments will be undertaken using a classification system focusing upon percentage of surface alteration. Initially, an assessment was carried out focussing on classifying each block individually. This was then followed by observations in a regular grid of 10x10cm squares across the wall sections. Results suggest that decay features develop beyond the extents of a single stone when situated within a larger built structure, with mortar and blocks providing both interconnectivity and barriers that influence the spread of decay. The results suggest the presence of three wall scale processes; urban microclimatic influencing capillary rise of ground water, architectural features creating a barrier and the passage of moisture through deteriorating mortar. Probe permeametry, GPR and 3D modelling of the wall sections were used to provide support for these findings. For the conservationist, application of a gridded observation approach is time consuming and of little use when deciding upon the remediation of individual blocks. However, in geomorphologically focused studies it facilitates a greater understanding of processes that extend beyond a single block, particularly when considering sites where the development of decay appears to be spatially complex.

Transpiration rates of urban trees, Aesculus chinensis.

PubMed

Wang, Hua; Wang, Xiaoke; Zhao, Ping; Zheng, Hua; Ren, Yufen; Gao, Fuyuan; Ouyang, Zhiyun

2012-01-01

Transpiration patterns of Aesculus chinensis in relation to explanatory variables in the microclimatic, air quality, and biological phenomena categories were measured in Beijing, China using the thermal dissipation method. The highest transpiration rate measured as the sap flux density of the trees took place from 10:00 am to 13:00 pm in the summer and the lowest was found during nighttime in the winter. To sort out co-linearity, principal component analysis and variation and hierarchical partitioning methods were employed in data analyses. The evaporative demand index (EDI) consisting of air temperature, soil temperature, total radiation, vapor pressure deficit, and atmospheric ozone (O3), explained 68% and 80% of the hourly and daily variations of the tree transpiration, respectively. The independent and joint effects of EDI variables together with a three-variable joint effect exerted the greatest influences on the variance of transpiration rates. The independent effects of leaf area index and atmospheric O3 and their combined effect exhibited minor yet significant influences on tree transpiration rates.

Wind farm and solar park effects on plant-soil carbon cycling: uncertain impacts of changes in ground-level microclimate.

PubMed

Armstrong, Alona; Waldron, Susan; Whitaker, Jeanette; Ostle, Nicholas J

2014-06-01

Global energy demand is increasing as greenhouse gas driven climate change progresses, making renewable energy sources critical to future sustainable power provision. Land-based wind and solar electricity generation technologies are rapidly expanding, yet our understanding of their operational effects on biological carbon cycling in hosting ecosystems is limited. Wind turbines and photovoltaic panels can significantly change local ground-level climate by a magnitude that could affect the fundamental plant-soil processes that govern carbon dynamics. We believe that understanding the possible effects of changes in ground-level microclimates on these phenomena is crucial to reducing uncertainty of the true renewable energy carbon cost and to maximize beneficial effects. In this Opinions article, we examine the potential for the microclimatic effects of these land-based renewable energy sources to alter plant-soil carbon cycling, hypothesize likely effects and identify critical knowledge gaps for future carbon research. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Effects of weather on habitat selection and behavior of mallards wintering in Nebraska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jorde, Dennis G.; Krapu, G.L.; Crawford, R.D.; Hay, M.A.

1984-01-01

Sex and age ratios, habitat selection, spatial characteristics, and time budgets of Mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) wintering on the Platte River in south central Nebraska were studied from mid-December to early April 1978-1980. The proportion of females and subadults in the population increased substantially from a cold to a mild winter. Radio-tagged Mallards shifted from riverine to canal roost sites during the coldest periods of the winter, seemingly because of more favorable microclimatic conditions there. Subadults ranged over larger areas during winter than did adults. Activity patterns varied with weather conditions, time of day, and habitat type. During cold periods, energetically costly activities such as aggression and courtship decreased at roost sites and the intensity of foraging activities in fields increased. Mallards were more active at riverine than canal sites during both years. High energy requirements and intense competition for scarce food appear to be primary factors limiting the northernmost distribution of Mallards in winter and causing their skewed sex and age ratios.

In situ assessment of structural timber elements of a historic building by infrared thermography and ultrasonic velocity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kandemir-Yucel, A.; Tavukcuoglu, A.; Caner-Saltik, E. N.

2007-01-01

The infrared thermography (IRT) and the ultrasonic velocity measurements (UVM) promise to be particularly important to assess the state of deterioration and the adequacy of the boundary and microclimatic conditions for timber elements. These non-destructive methods supported by laboratory analyses of timber samples were conducted on a 13th century monument, Aslanhane Mosque in Ankara, Turkey. The combined interpretation of the results was done to assess the condition of structural timber elements in terms of their state of preservation, the dampness problems and the recent incompatible repairs affecting them. Results indicated that moist areas in the structure were associated with roof drainage problems and the repairs undertaken with cement-based mortars and plasters and oil-based paints. Juxtaposition of the IRT and UVM together with laboratory analyses was found to be useful to assess the soundness of timber, enhanced the accuracy and effectiveness of the survey and facilitated to build up the urgent and long-term conservation programs.

Dataset on daytime outdoor thermal comfort for Belo Horizonte, Brazil.

PubMed

Hirashima, Simone Queiroz da Silveira; Assis, Eleonora Sad de; Nikolopoulou, Marialena

2016-12-01

This dataset describe microclimatic parameters of two urban open public spaces in the city of Belo Horizonte, Brazil; physiological equivalent temperature (PET) index values and the related subjective responses of interviewees regarding thermal sensation perception and preference and thermal comfort evaluation. Individuals and behavioral characteristics of respondents were also presented. Data were collected at daytime, in summer and winter, 2013. Statistical treatment of this data was firstly presented in a PhD Thesis ("Percepção sonora e térmica e avaliação de conforto em espaços urbanos abertos do município de Belo Horizonte - MG, Brasil" (Hirashima, 2014) [1]), providing relevant information on thermal conditions in these locations and on thermal comfort assessment. Up to now, this data was also explored in the article "Daytime Thermal Comfort in Urban Spaces: A Field Study in Brazil" (Hirashima et al., in press) [2]. These references are recommended for further interpretation and discussion.

Outdoor thermal comfort.

PubMed

Nikolopoulou, Marialena

2011-06-01

A review of the various approaches in understanding outdoor thermal comfort is presented. The emphasis on field surveys from around the world, particularly across Europe, enables us to understand thermal perception and evaluate outdoor thermal comfort conditions. The consistent low correlations between objective microclimatic variables, subjective thermal sensation and comfort outdoors, internationally, suggest that thermophysiology alone does not adequate describe these relationships. Focusing on the concept of adaptation, it tries to explain how this influences outdoor comfort, enabling us to inhabit and get satisfaction from outdoor spaces throughout the year. Beyond acclimatization and behavioral adaptation, through adjustments in clothing and changes to the metabolic heat, psychological adaptation plays a critical role to ensure thermal comfort and satisfaction with the outdoor environment. Such parameters include recent experiences and expectations; personal choice and perceived control, more important than whether that control is actually exercised; and the need for positive environmental stimulation suggesting that thermal neutrality is not a pre-requisite for thermal comfort. Ultimately, enhancing environmental diversity can influence thermal perception and experience of open spaces.

Watch out where you sleep: nocturnal sleeping behaviour of Bay Island lizards.

PubMed

Mohanty, Nitya Prakash; Harikrishnan, Surendran; Vasudevan, Karthikeyan

2016-01-01

Sleeping exposes lizards to predation. Therefore, sleeping strategies must be directed towards avoiding predation and might vary among syntopic species. We studied sleeping site characteristics of two syntopic, congeneric lizards-the Bay Island forest lizard, Coryphophylax subcristatus and the short-tailed Bay Island lizard, C. brevicaudus and evaluated inter-specific differences. We measured structural, microclimatic and potential predator avoidance at the sleeping perches of 386 C. subcristatus and 185 C. brevicaudus. Contrary to our expectation, we found similar perch use in both species. The lizards appeared to use narrow girth perch plants and accessed perches by moving both vertically and horizontally. Most lizards slept on leaves, with their heads directed towards the potential path of a predator approaching from the plant base. There was no inter-specific competition in the choices of sleeping perches. These choices indicate an anti-predator strategy involving both tactile and visual cues. This study provides insight into a rarely studied behaviour in reptiles and its adaptive significance.

Gaining forests but losing ground: A GIS evaluation in a Himalayan watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schreier, Hans; Brown, Sandra; Schmidt, Margaret; Shah, Pravakar; Shrestha, Bubhan; Nakarmi, Gopal; Subba, Khagendra; Wymann, Susanne

1994-01-01

GIS overlay techniques were used to provide a quantitative historic documentation of deforestation and land-use dynamics in the Middle Mountains of Nepal between 1947 and 1990. Deforestation was most critical in the 1960s, but active afforestation programs in the 1980s have reversed the process. In spite of these trends, the degradation problem is more complex. The GIS evaluation showed that 86% of the recently afforested land is now under pine plantations located primarily at lower elevations and moderately steep slopes. In contrast, rainfed agricultural expansion is most pronounced on acidic soils and steeper, upper elevation sites, suggesting marginalization of agriculture. Agricultural expansion coupled with major losses of grazing land to pine forests are the key processes pointing towards major animal feed deficits. An alternative animal feed source is suggested through GIS using a topographically based microclimatic classification to generate a tree-planting map where the optimum ecological conditions for selective native fodder tree species are identified.

Changing nest placement of Hawaiian Common Amakihi during the breeding cycle

USGS Publications Warehouse

van Riper, Charles; Kern, M. D.; Sogge, M. K.

1993-01-01

We studied the nesting behavior of the Common Amakihi (Hemignathus virens) from 1970-1981 on the island of Hawaii to determine if the species alters nest placement over a protracted 9-month breeding season. Birds preferentially chose the southwest quadrant of trees in which to build nests during all phases of the breeding season. It appeared that ambient temperature (Ta) was a contributing factor to differential nest placement between early and late phases of the annual breeding cycle. When Ta is low during the early (December-March) breeding period, Common Amakihi selected exposed nesting locations that benefitted them with maximum solar insolation. However, in the later phase of the breeding period (April-July) when Ta was much higher, renesting birds selected nest sites deeper in the canopy in significantly taller trees. This is one of the few documented examples in which a species changes location of nest during a breeding season, thus allowing exploitation of temporally differing microclimatic conditions.

Population dynamics of intertidal oribatid mites (Acari: Cryptostigmata) from the subtropical archipelago of Bermuda.

PubMed

Pfingstl, Tobias

2013-10-01

The population dynamics of the three intertidal oribatid species, Alismobates inexpectatus, Fortuynia atlantica and Carinozetes bermudensis, have been studied on the archipelago of Bermuda over the course of a year. All three species are univoltine, showing a clear seasonal demographic pattern, with reproduction from spring to late autumn and a complete standstill of egg production in winter. A seasonal shift in sex ratio could also be observed in all three species and is supposed to be based on sex-dependent mortality. The subtropical climate of Bermuda allows longer reproductive periods than shown in other intertidal or edaphic temperate species and temperature is supposed to be the main factor influencing the demography of these intertidal dwelling mites. Although all three Bermudian species exhibit the same basic seasonal demographic pattern, there are slight temporal shifts in population dynamics, presumably caused by local microclimatic differences among the populations. Larviparity, shown in other littoral oribatid mites, is clearly absent in the present species.

Bats Increase the Number of Cultivable Airborne Fungi in the "Nietoperek" Bat Reserve in Western Poland.

PubMed

Kokurewicz, Tomasz; Ogórek, Rafał; Pusz, Wojciech; Matkowski, Krzysztof

2016-07-01

The "Nietoperek" bat reserve located in Western Poland is one of the largest bat hibernation sites in the European Union with nearly 38,000 bats from 12 species. Nietoperek is part of a built underground fortification system from WWII. The aims of the study were (1) to determine the fungal species composition and changes during hibernation season in relation to bat number and microclimatic conditions and (2) evaluate the potential threat of fungi for bat assemblages and humans visiting the complex. Airborne fungi were collected in the beginning, middle and end of hibernation period (9 November 2013 and 17 January and 15 March 2014) in 12 study sites, one outside and 11 inside the complex. Ambient temperature (T a) and relative humidity (RH) were measured by the use of data loggers, and species composition of bats was recorded from the study sites. The collision method (Air Ideal 3P) sampler was used to detect 34 species of airborne fungi including Pseudogymnoascus destructans (Pd). The density of airborne fungi isolated from the outdoor air samples varied from 102 to 242 CFU/1 m(3) of air and from 12 to 1198 CFU in the underground air samples. There was a positive relationship between number of bats and the concentration of fungi. The concentration of airborne fungi increased with the increase of bats number. Analysis of other possible ways of spore transport to the underground indicated that the number of bats was the primary factor determining the number of fungal spores in that hibernation site. Microclimatic conditions where Pd was found (median 8.7 °C, min-max 6.1-9.9 °C and 100 %, min-max 77.5-100.0 %) were preferred by hibernating Myotis myotis and Myotis daubentonii; therefore, these species are most probably especially prone to infection by this fungi species. The spores of fungi found in the underground can be pathogenic for humans and animals, especially for immunocompromised persons, even though their concentrations did not exceed limits and norms established as dangerous for human health. In addition, we showed for the first time that the air in bats hibernation sites can be a reservoir of Pd. Therefore, further study in other underground environments and wintering bats is necessary to find out more about the potential threat of airborne fungi to bats and public health.

Temperature drives abundance fluctuations, but spatial dynamics is constrained by landscape configuration: Implications for climate-driven range shift in a butterfly.

PubMed

Fourcade, Yoan; Ranius, Thomas; Öckinger, Erik

2017-10-01

Prediction of species distributions in an altered climate requires knowledge on how global- and local-scale factors interact to limit their current distributions. Such knowledge can be gained through studies of spatial population dynamics at climatic range margins. Here, using a butterfly (Pyrgus armoricanus) as model species, we first predicted based on species distribution modelling that its climatically suitable habitats currently extend north of its realized range. Projecting the model into scenarios of future climate, we showed that the distribution of climatically suitable habitats may shift northward by an additional 400 km in the future. Second, we used a 13-year monitoring dataset including the majority of all habitat patches at the species northern range margin to assess the synergetic impact of temperature fluctuations and spatial distribution of habitat, microclimatic conditions and habitat quality, on abundance and colonization-extinction dynamics. The fluctuation in abundance between years was almost entirely determined by the variation in temperature during the species larval development. In contrast, colonization and extinction dynamics were better explained by patch area, between-patch connectivity and host plant density. This suggests that the response of the species to future climate change may be limited by future land use and how its host plants respond to climate change. It is, thus, probable that dispersal limitation will prevent P. armoricanus from reaching its potential future distribution. We argue that models of range dynamics should consider the factors influencing metapopulation dynamics, especially at the range edges, and not only broad-scale climate. It includes factors acting at the scale of habitat patches such as habitat quality and microclimate and landscape-scale factors such as the spatial configuration of potentially suitable patches. Knowledge of population dynamics under various environmental conditions, and the incorporation of realistic scenarios of future land use, appears essential to provide predictions useful for actions mitigating the negative effects of climate change. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2017 British Ecological Society.

Sensitivity of Honeybee Hygroreceptors to Slow Humidity Changes and Temporal Humidity Variation Detected in High Resolution by Mobile Measurements

PubMed Central

Tichy, Harald; Kallina, Wolfgang

2014-01-01

The moist cell and the dry cell on the antenna of the male honeybee were exposed to humidities slowly rising and falling at rates between –1.5%/s and +1.5%/s and at varying amplitudes in the 10 to 90% humidity range. The two cells respond to these slow humidity oscillations with oscillations in impulse frequency which depend not only on instantaneous humidity but also on the rate with which humidity changes. The impulse frequency of each cell was plotted as a function of these two parameters and regression planes were fitted to the data points of single oscillation periods. The regression slopes, which estimate sensitivity, rose with the amplitude of humidity oscillations. During large-amplitude oscillations, moist and dry cell sensitivity for instantaneous humidity and its rate of change was high. During small-amplitude oscillations, their sensitivity for both parameters was low, less exactly reflecting humidity fluctuations. Nothing is known about the spatial and temporal humidity variations a honeybee may encounter when flying through natural environments. Microclimatic parameters (absolute humidity, temperature, wind speed) were measured from an automobile traveling through different landscapes of Lower Austria. Landscape type affected extremes and mean values of humidity. Differences between peaks and troughs of humidity fluctuations were generally smaller in open grassy fields or deciduous forests than in edge habitats or forest openings. Overall, fluctuation amplitudes were small. In this part of the stimulus range, hygroreceptor sensitivity is not optimal for encoding instantaneous humidity and the rate of humidity change. It seems that honeybee's hygroreceptors are specialized for detecting large-amplitude fluctuations that are relevant for a specific behavior, namely, maintaining a sufficiently stable state of water balance. The results suggest that optimal sensitivity of both hygroreceptors is shaped not only by humidity oscillation amplitudes but also according to their impact on behavior. PMID:24901985

GIS development to monitor climate change and its geohydrological consequences on non-monsoon crop pattern in Himalaya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rawat, Pradeep K.

2014-09-01

The main objective of the study was to assess climate change and its geohydrological impacts on non-monsoon crop pattern at watershed level through GIS development on climate informatics, land use informatics, hydro-informatics and agro-informatics. The Dabka watershed constitutes a part of the Kosi Basin in densely populated Lesser Himalaya, India in district Nainital has been selected for the case illustration. This reconnaissance study analyzed the climatic database for last three decades (1982-2012) and estimates that the average temperature and evaporation loss have been rising with the rate of 0.07 °C/yr and 4.03 mm/yr respectively whereas the average rainfall has been decreasing with the rate of 0.60 mm/yr. These rates of climate change increasing with mounting elevations. Consequently the existing microclimatic zones (sub-tropical, temperate and moist temperate) shifting towards higher altitudes and affecting the favorable conditions of the land use pattern and decreased the eco-friendly forest and vegetation cover. The land use degradation and high rate of deforestation (0.22 km2 or 1.5%/yr) leads to accelerate several hydrological problems during non-monsoon period (i.e. decreasing infiltration capacity of land surface, declining underground water level, drying up natural perennial springs and streams, decreasing irrigation water availability etc.). In order to that the non-monsoon crops yield has been decreasing with the rate of 0.60% each year as the results suggest that the average crop yield is just about 58 q/ha whereas twenty five to thirty year back it was recorded about 66 q/ha which is about 12% higher (8 q/ha) than existing yield. On the other hand the population increasing with the growth rate of 2% each year. Therefore, decreasing crop yield and increasing population raised food deficiency problem and the people adopting other occupations which ultimately affecting rural livelihood of the Himalaya.

Trends in Soil Moisture Reflect More Than Slope Position: Soils on San Cristóbal Island, Galápagos as a Case Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Percy, M.; Singha, K.; Benninger, L. K.; Riveros-Iregui, D. A.; Mirus, B. B.

2015-12-01

The spatial and temporal distribution of soil moisture in tropical critical zones depends upon a number of variables including topographic position, soil texture, overlying vegetation, and local microclimates. We investigate the influences on soil moisture on a tropical basaltic island (San Cristóbal, Galápagos) across a variety of microclimates during the transition from the wetter to the drier season. We used multiple approaches to characterize spatial and temporal patterns in soil moisture at four sites across microclimates ranging from arid to very humid. The microclimates on San Cristóbal vary with elevation, so our monitoring includes two sites in the transitional zone at lower elevations, one in the humid zone at moderate elevations, and one in the very humid zone in higher elevations. We made over 250 near-surface point measurements per site using a Hydrosense II probe, and estimated the lateral variability in soil moisture across each site with an EM-31 electrical conductivity meter. We also monitored continuous time-series of in-situ soil moisture dynamics using three nested TDR probes collocated with meteorological stations at each of the sites. Preliminary analysis indicates that soils in the very humid zone have lower electrical conductivities across all the hillslopes as compared to the humid and transitional zones, which suggests that additional factors beyond climate and slope position are important. While soil texture across the very humid site is fairly uniform, variations in vegetation have a strong control on soil moisture patterns. At the remaining sites the vegetation patterns also have a very strong local influence on soil moisture, but correlation between the depth to clay layers and soil moisture patterns suggests that mineralogy is also important. Our findings suggest that the microclimatic setting is a crucial consideration for understanding relations between vegetation, soil texture, and soil-moisture dynamics in tropical critical zones.

Initial soil respiration response to biomass harvesting and green-tree retention in aspen-dominated forests of the Great Lakes region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kurth, Valerie J.; Bradford, John B.; Slesak, Robert A.; D'Amato, Anthony W.

2014-01-01

Contemporary forest management practices are increasingly designed to optimize novel objectives, such as maximizing biomass feedstocks and/or maintaining ecological legacies, but many uncertainties exist regarding how these practices influence forest carbon (C) cycling. We examined the responses of soil respiration (Rs) to biomass harvesting and green-tree retention in an effort to empirically assess their impacts on C cycling. We measured Rs and soil microclimatic variables over four growing seasons following implementation of these management practices using a fully replicated, operational-scale experiment in aspen-dominated forests in northern Minnesota. Treatments included three levels of biomass removal within harvested areas: whole-tree harvest (no slash deliberately retained), 20% slash retained, and stem-only harvest (all slash retained), and two levels of green-tree retention: 0.1 ha aggregate or none. The relative amount of biomass removed had a negligible effect on Rs in harvested areas, but treatment effects were probably obscured by heterogeneous slash configurations and rapid post-harvest regeneration of aspen in all of the treatments. Discrete measurements of Rs and soil temperature within green-tree aggregates were not discernible from surrounding harvested areas or unharvested control stands until the fourth year following harvest, when Rs was higher in unharvested controls than in aggregates and harvested stands. Growing season estimates of Rs showed that unharvested control stands had higher Rs than both harvested stands and aggregates in the first and third years following harvest. Our results suggest that retention of larger forest aggregates may be necessary to maintain ecosystem-level responses similar to those in unharvested stands. Moreover, they highlight the innate complexity of operational-scale research and suggest that the initial impacts of biomass harvest on Rs may be indiscernible from traditional harvest in systems where incidental breakage is high.

Microclimatic Divergence in a Mediterranean Canyon Affects Richness, Composition, and Body Size in Saproxylic Beetle Assemblages.

PubMed

Buse, Jörn; Fassbender, Samuel; Entling, Martin H; Pavlicek, Tomas

2015-01-01

Large valleys with opposing slopes may act as a model system with which the effects of strong climatic gradients on biodiversity can be evaluated. The advantage of such comparisons is that the impact of a change of climate can be studied on the same species pool without the need to consider regional differences. The aim of this study was to compare the assemblage of saproxylic beetles on such opposing slopes at Lower Nahal Oren, Mt. Carmel, Israel (also known as "Evolution Canyon") with a 200-800% higher solar radiation on the south-facing (SFS) compared to the north-facing slope (NFS). We tested specific hypotheses of species richness patterns, assemblage structure, and body size resulting from interslope differences in microclimate. Fifteen flight-interception traps per slope were distributed over three elevation levels ranging from 50 to 100 m a.s.l. Richness of saproxylic beetles was on average 34% higher on the SFS compared with the NFS, with no detected influence of elevation levels. Both assemblage structure and average body size were determined by slope aspect, with more small-bodied beetles found on the SFS. Both the increase in species richness and the higher prevalence of small species on the SFS reflect ecological rules present on larger spatial grain (species-energy hypothesis and community body size shift hypothesis), and both can be explained by the metabolic theory of ecology. This is encouraging for the complementary use of micro- and macroclimatic gradients to study impacts of climate warming on biodiversity.

Human thermal comfort conditions and urban planning in hot-humid climates—The case of Cuba

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodríguez Algeciras, José Abel; Coch, Helena; De la Paz Pérez, Guillermo; Chaos Yeras, Mabel; Matzarakis, Andreas

2016-08-01

Climate regional characteristics, urban environmental conditions, and outdoors thermal comfort requirements of residents are important for urban planning. Basic studies of urban microclimate can provide information and useful resources to predict and improve thermal conditions in hot-humid climatic regions. The paper analyzes the thermal bioclimate and its influence as urban design factor in Cuba, using Physiologically Equivalent Temperature (PET). Simulations of wind speed variations and shade conditions were performed to quantify changes in thermal bioclimate due to possible modifications in urban morphology. Climate data from Havana, Camagüey, and Santiago of Cuba for the period 2001 to 2012 were used to calculate PET with the RayMan model. The results show that changes in meteorological parameters influence the urban microclimate, and consequently modify the thermal conditions in outdoors spaces. Shade is the predominant strategy to improve urban microclimate with more significant benefits in terms of PET higher than 30 °C. For climatic regions such as the analyzed ones, human thermal comfort can be improved by a wind speed modification for thresholds of PET above 30 °C, and by a wind speed decreases in conditions below 26 °C. The improvement of human thermal conditions is crucial for urban sustainability. On this regards, our study is a contribution for urban designers, due to the possibility of taking advantage of results for improving microclimatic conditions based on urban forms. The results may enable urban planners to create spaces that people prefer to visit, and also are usable in the reconfiguration of cities.

Long-term dynamics of tropical walking sticks in response to multiple large-scale and intense disturbances.

PubMed

Willig, Michael R; Presley, Steven J; Bloch, Christopher P

2011-02-01

Understanding the effects of disturbance and secondary succession on spatio-temporal patterns in the abundance of species is stymied by a lack of long-term demographic data, especially in response to infrequent and high intensity disturbances, such as hurricanes. Moreover, resistance and resilience to hurricane-induced disturbance may be mediated by legacies of previous land use, although such interactive effects are poorly understood, especially in tropical environments. We address these central issues in disturbance ecology by analyzing an extensive dataset, spanning the impacts of Hurricanes Hugo and Georges, on the abundance of a Neotropical walking stick, Lamponius portoricensis, in tabonuco rainforest of Puerto Rico during the wet and dry seasons from 1991 to 2007. By synthesizing data from two proximate sites in tabonuco forest, we show that resistance to Hurricane Hugo (97% reduction in abundance) was much less than resistance to Hurricane Georges (21% reduction in abundance). Based on a powerful statistical approach (generalized linear mixed-effects models with Poisson error terms), we documented that the temporal trajectories of abundance during secondary succession (i.e., patterns of resilience) differed between hurricanes and among historical land use categories, but that the effects of hurricanes and land use histories were independent of each other. These complex results likely arise because of differences in the intensities of the two hurricanes with respect to microclimatic effects (temperature and moisture) in the forest understory, as well as to time-lags in the response of L. portoricensis to changes in the abundance and distribution of preferred food plants (Piper) in post-hurricane environments.

Human thermal comfort conditions and urban planning in hot-humid climates-The case of Cuba.

PubMed

Rodríguez Algeciras, José Abel; Coch, Helena; De la Paz Pérez, Guillermo; Chaos Yeras, Mabel; Matzarakis, Andreas

2016-08-01

Climate regional characteristics, urban environmental conditions, and outdoors thermal comfort requirements of residents are important for urban planning. Basic studies of urban microclimate can provide information and useful resources to predict and improve thermal conditions in hot-humid climatic regions. The paper analyzes the thermal bioclimate and its influence as urban design factor in Cuba, using Physiologically Equivalent Temperature (PET). Simulations of wind speed variations and shade conditions were performed to quantify changes in thermal bioclimate due to possible modifications in urban morphology. Climate data from Havana, Camagüey, and Santiago of Cuba for the period 2001 to 2012 were used to calculate PET with the RayMan model. The results show that changes in meteorological parameters influence the urban microclimate, and consequently modify the thermal conditions in outdoors spaces. Shade is the predominant strategy to improve urban microclimate with more significant benefits in terms of PET higher than 30 °C. For climatic regions such as the analyzed ones, human thermal comfort can be improved by a wind speed modification for thresholds of PET above 30 °C, and by a wind speed decreases in conditions below 26 °C. The improvement of human thermal conditions is crucial for urban sustainability. On this regards, our study is a contribution for urban designers, due to the possibility of taking advantage of results for improving microclimatic conditions based on urban forms. The results may enable urban planners to create spaces that people prefer to visit, and also are usable in the reconfiguration of cities.

Mechanisms Driving Galling Success in a Fragmented Landscape: Synergy of Habitat and Top-Down Factors along Temperate Forest Edges

PubMed Central

Kelch, Nina-S.; Neves, Frederico S.; Fernandes, G. Wilson

2016-01-01

Edge effects play key roles in the anthropogenic transformation of forested ecosystems and their biota, and are therefore a prime field of contemporary fragmentation research. We present the first empirical study to address edge effects on the population level of a widespread galling herbivore in a temperate deciduous forest. By analyzing edge effects on abundance and trophic interactions of beech gall midge (Mikiola fagi Htg.), we found 30% higher gall abundance in the edge habitat as well as lower mortality rates due to decreased top-down control, especially by parasitoids. Two GLM models with similar explanatory power (58%) identified habitat specific traits (such as canopy closure and altitude) and parasitism as the best predictors of gall abundance. Further analyses revealed a crucial influence of light exposure (46%) on top-down control by the parasitoid complex. Guided by a conceptual framework synthesizing the key factors driving gall density, we conclude that forest edge proliferation of M. fagi is due to a complex interplay of abiotic changes and trophic control mechanisms. Most prominently, it is caused by the microclimatic regime in forest edges, acting alone or in synergistic concert with top-down pressure by parasitoids. Contrary to the prevailing notion that specialists are edge-sensitive, this turns M. fagi into a winner species in fragmented temperate beech forests. In view of the increasing proportion of edge habitats and the documented benefits from edge microclimate, we call for investigations exploring the pest status of this galling insect and the modulators of its biological control. PMID:27310599

Demographic Responses To Climate Manipulations Across a Species Range

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oldfather, M. F.

2016-12-01

Species biogeographic responses to climate change will occur through the local extinction and establishment of populations. The overall performance of populations across a species range is shaped by the idiosyncratic sensitivities of demographic rates to the changing climate conditions. Heterogeneous topography partially decouples temperature and soil moisture presenting an opportunity to disentangle demographic sensitivity to multiple local climate variables and refine range shift predictions in response to complex climate change. Since 2013, I have monitored 16 populations of a long-lived alpine plant, Ivesia lycopodioides var. scandularis (Rosaceae) across the entirety of its altitudinal range in the arid White Mountains, CA (3350 - 4420m). I quantified microclimatic soil moisture and temperature, and the demographic rates of over 4,000 individuals. Demographic rates exhibited sensitivity to accumulated degree-days (ex. reproduction), soil volumetric water content (ex. germination), or the interaction between these climate variables (ex. survival). These observations motivated an experimental test of the relationship between demography and local climate with manipulations of increased summertime temperature and precipitation in nine populations. All demographic rates were sensitive to the climate manipulations and the magnitude of the demographic response depended on the population's location within the range. However, the modeled population growth rate was only minimally affected by the manipulations in most populations. The inverse responses of many of the demographic rates may allow populations to demographically buffer against the climate manipulations. However, in one low elevation edge population the negative effect of heating on survival overwhelmed the positive effect on germination, indicating that the capacity of populations to demographically buffer may have a limit.

Downscaling to the Climate Near the Ground: Measurements and Modeling Along the Macro-, Meso-, Topo-, and Microclimate Hierarchy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van de Ven, C.; Weiss, S. B.

2009-12-01

Most climate models are expressed at regional scales, with resolutions on the scales of kilometers. When used for ecological modeling, these climate models help explain only broad-scale trends, such as latitudinal and upslope migration of plants. However, more refined ecological models require down-scaled climate data at ecologically relevant spatial scales, and the goal of this presentation is to demonstrate robust downscaling methods. For example, in the White Mountains, eastern California, tree species, including bristlecone pine (Pinus longaeva) are seen moving not just upslope, but also sideways across aspects, and downslope into areas characterized by cold air drainage. Macroclimate in the White Mountains is semi-arid, residing in the rain shadow of the Sierra Nevada. Macroclimate is modified by mesoscale effects of mountain ranges, where climate becomes wetter and colder with elevation, the temperature decreasing according to the regionally and temporally-specific lapse rate. Local topography further modifies climate, where slope angle, aspect, and topographic position further impact the temperature at a given site. Finally, plants experience extremely localized microclimate, where surrounding vegetation provide differing degrees of shade. We measured and modeled topoclimate across the White Mountains using iButton Thermochron temperature data loggers during late summer in 2006 and 2008, and have documented effects of microclimatic temperature differences between sites in the open and shaded by shrubs. Starting with PRISM 800m data, we derived mesoscale lapse rates. Then, we calculated temperature differentials between each Thermochron and a long-term weather station in the middle of the range at Crooked Creek Valley. We modeled month-specific minimum temperature differentials by regressing the Thermochron-weather station minimum temperature differentials with various topographic parameters. Topographic position, the absolute value of topographic position, and slope combined to provide a very close fit (r2>0.9) to measured inversions of >8°C. Although topoclimatic maximum temperature models have been more elusive, regressions with degree hours greater than zero (DH>0) have been modeled with September insolation and slope (r2=0.7). In paired experiments, Thermochrons also recorded the temperature differences between the environment under sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata) and in the open, with an average minimum temperature difference of 2.1°C, and maximum temperature difference of 4.5°C. When we incorporate hourly weather station data, the strength of the inversion is weakened by wind, higher relative humidity, and cloudiness. This hierarchical modeling provides a template for downscaling climate and weather to ecologically relevant scales.

Environmental Factors and Seasonality Affect the Concentration of Rotundone in Vitis vinifera L. cv. Shiraz Wine

PubMed Central

Zhang, Pangzhen; Howell, Kate; Krstic, Mark; Herderich, Markus; Barlow, Edward William R.; Fuentes, Sigfredo

2015-01-01

Rotundone is a sesquiterpene that gives grapes and wine a desirable ‘peppery’ aroma. Previous research has reported that growing grapevines in a cool climate is an important factor that drives rotundone accumulation in grape berries and wine. This study used historical data sets to investigate which weather parameters are mostly influencing rotundone concentration in grape berries and wine. For this purpose, wines produced from 15 vintages from the same Shiraz vineyard (The Old Block, Mount Langi Ghiran, Victoria, Australia) were analysed for rotundone concentration and compared to comprehensive weather data and minimal temperature information. Degree hours were obtained by interpolating available temperature information from the vineyard site using a simple piecewise cubic hermite interpolating polynomial method (PCHIP). Results showed that the highest concentrations of rotundone were consistently found in wines from cool and wet seasons. The Principal Component Analysis (PCA) showed that the concentration of rotundone in wine was negatively correlated with daily solar exposure and grape bunch zone temperature, and positively correlated with vineyard water balance. Finally, models were constructed based on the Gompertz function to describe the dynamics of rotundone concentration in berries through the ripening process according to phenological and thermal times. This characterisation is an important step forward to potentially predict the final quality of the resultant wines based on the evolution of specific compounds in berries according to critical environmental and micrometeorological variables. The modelling techniques described in this paper were able to describe the behaviour of rotundone concentration based on seasonal weather conditions and grapevine phenological stages, and could be potentially used to predict the final rotundone concentration early in future growing seasons. This could enable the adoption of precision irrigation and canopy management strategies to effectively mitigate adverse impacts related to climate change and microclimatic variability, such as heat waves, within a vineyard on wine quality. PMID:26176692

Investigation of the climate change within Moscow metropolitan area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Varentsov, Mikhail; Trusilova, Kristina; Konstantinov, Pavel; Samsonov, Timofey

2014-05-01

As the urbanization continues worldwide more than half of the Earth's population live in the cities (U.N., 2010). Therefore the vulnerability of the urban environment - the living space for millions of people - to the climate change has to be investigated. It is well known that urban features strongly influence the atmospheric boundary layer and determine the microclimatic features of the local environment, such as urban heat island (UHI). Available temperature observations in cities are, however, influenced by the natural climate variations, human-induced climate warming (IPCC, 2007) and in the same time by the growth and structural modification of the urban areas. The relationship between these three factors and their roles in climate changes in the cities are very important for the climatic forecast and requires better understanding. In this study, we made analysis of the air temperature change and urban heat island evolution within Moscow urban area during decades 1970-2010, while this urban area had undergone intensive growth and building modification allowing the population of Moscow to increase from 7 to 12 million people. Analysis was based on the data from several meteorological stations in Moscow region and Moscow city, including meteorological observatory of Lomonosov Moscow State University. Differences in climate change between urban and rural stations, changes of the power and shape of urban heat island and their relationships with changes of building height and density were investigated. Collected data and obtained results are currently to be used for the validation of the regional climate model COSMO-CLM with the purpose to use this model for further more detailed climate research and forecasts for Moscow metropolitan area. References: 1. U.N. (2010), World Urbanization Prospects. The 2009 Revision.Rep., 1-47 pp, United Nations. Department of Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division., New York. 2. IPCC (2007), IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007 (AR4) Rep.,Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.

Shifts in wind energy potential following land-use driven vegetation dynamics in complex terrain.

PubMed

Fang, Jiannong; Peringer, Alexander; Stupariu, Mihai-Sorin; Pǎtru-Stupariu, Ileana; Buttler, Alexandre; Golay, Francois; Porté-Agel, Fernando

2018-10-15

Many mountainous regions with high wind energy potential are characterized by multi-scale variabilities of vegetation in both spatial and time dimensions, which strongly affect the spatial distribution of wind resource and its time evolution. To this end, we developed a coupled interdisciplinary modeling framework capable of assessing the shifts in wind energy potential following land-use driven vegetation dynamics in complex mountain terrain. It was applied to a case study area in the Romanian Carpathians. The results show that the overall shifts in wind energy potential following the changes of vegetation pattern due to different land-use policies can be dramatic. This suggests that the planning of wind energy project should be integrated with the land-use planning at a specific site to ensure that the expected energy production of the planned wind farm can be reached over its entire lifetime. Moreover, the changes in the spatial distribution of wind and turbulence under different scenarios of land-use are complex, and they must be taken into account in the micro-siting of wind turbines to maximize wind energy production and minimize fatigue loads (and associated maintenance costs). The proposed new modeling framework offers, for the first time, a powerful tool for assessing long-term variability in local wind energy potential that emerges from land-use change driven vegetation dynamics over complex terrain. Following a previously unexplored pathway of cause-effect relationships, it demonstrates a new linkage of agro- and forest policies in landscape development with an ultimate trade-off between renewable energy production and biodiversity targets. Moreover, it can be extended to study the potential effects of micro-climatic changes associated with wind farms on vegetation development (growth and patterning), which could in turn have a long-term feedback effect on wind resource distribution in mountainous regions. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Brood comb as a humidity buffer in honeybee nests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ellis, Michael B.; Nicolson, Sue W.; Crewe, Robin M.; Dietemann, Vincent

2010-04-01

Adverse environmental conditions can be evaded, tolerated or modified in order for an organism to survive. During their development, some insect larvae spin cocoons which, in addition to protecting their occupants against predators, modify microclimatic conditions, thus facilitating thermoregulation or reducing evaporative water loss. Silk cocoons are spun by honeybee ( Apis mellifera) larvae and subsequently incorporated into the cell walls of the wax combs in which they develop. The accumulation of this hygroscopic silk in the thousands of cells used for brood rearing may significantly affect nest homeostasis by buffering humidity fluctuations. This study investigates the extent to which the comb may influence homeostasis by quantifying the hygroscopic capacity of the cocoons spun by honeybee larvae. When comb containing cocoons was placed at high humidity, it absorbed 11% of its own mass in water within 4 days. Newly drawn comb composed of hydrophobic wax and devoid of cocoons absorbed only 3% of its own mass. Therefore, the accumulation of cocoons in the comb may increase brood survivorship by maintaining a high and stable humidity in the cells.

Variation in Nectar Volume and Sugar Concentration of Allium ursinum L. ssp. ucrainicum in Three Habitats

PubMed Central

Farkas, Ágnes; Molnár, Réka; Morschhauser, Tamás; Hahn, István

2012-01-01

Floral nectar volume and concentration of ramson (Allium ursinum L. ssp. ucrainicum) were investigated in three different habitats, including two types of sessile oak-hornbeam association on brown forest soil with clay illuviation and a silver lime-flowering ash rock forest association on rendzina. Daily nectar production ranged from 0.1 to 3.8 μL per flower with sugar concentrations of 25 to 50%. Mean nectar volumes and concentrations showed significant differences between freely exposed flowers and covered flowers, which had been isolated from flower visitors 24 h prior to nectar studies. Both the amount and quality of nectar were affected by microclimatic conditions and soil properties and varied between populations at different habitats. In the silver lime-flowering ash rock-forest association mean nectar volumes and concentrations were lower than in a typical sessile oak-hornbeam association on three occasions, the difference being significant in two cases. During full bloom, the date of sampling did not have a profound effect on either nectar volume or concentration. PMID:22619588

The temperature size rule in arthropods: independent of macro-environmental variables but size dependent.

PubMed

Klok, C Jaco; Harrison, Jon F

2013-10-01

Temperature is a key factor that affects the rates of growth and development in animals, which ultimately determine body size. Although not universal, a widely documented and poorly understood pattern is the inverse relationship between the temperature at which an ectothermic animal is reared and its body size (temperature size rule [TSR]). The proximate and ultimate mechanisms for the TSR remain unclear. To explore possible explanations for the TSR, we tested for correlations between the magnitude/direction of the TSR and latitude, temperature, elevation, habitat, availability of oxygen, capacity for flight, and taxonomic grouping in 98 species/populations of arthropods. The magnitude and direction of the TSR was not correlated with any of the macro-environmental variables we examined, supporting the generality of the TSR. However, body size affected the magnitude and direction of the TSR, with smaller arthropods more likely to demonstrate a classic TSR. Considerable variation among species exists in the TSR, suggesting either strong interactions with nutrition, or selection based on microclimatic or seasonal variation not captured in classic macro-environmental variables.

Statistical Tools Applied in the Characterisation and Evaluation of a Thermo-Hygrometric Corrective Action Carried out at the Noheda Archaeological Site (Noheda, Spain)

PubMed Central

Valero, Miguel Ángel; Merello, Paloma; Navajas, Ángel Fernández; García-Diego, Fernando-Juan

2014-01-01

The Noheda archaeological site is unique and exceptional for its size, and the quality and conservation condition of the Roman mosaic pavement covering its urban pars. In 2008 a tent was installed as protection from rain and sun. Being of interest to characterise the microclimate of the remains, six probes with relative humidity and temperature sensors were installed in 2013 for this purpose. Microclimate monitoring allowed us to check relative humidity differences resulting from the groundwater level, as well as inner sensors reaching maximum temperatures higher than the outdoors ones as a consequence of the non-ventilated tent covering the archaeological site. Microclimatic conditions in the archaeological site were deemed detrimental for the conservation of the mosaics. Thus, in summer 2013, expanded clay and geotextile were installed over the mosaics as a corrective action. The outcomes of this study have proven the effectiveness of this solution to control temperature and relative humidity, helping to configure a more stable microclimate suitable for preservation of the mosaic. PMID:24445414

Software for Storage and Management of Microclimatic Data for Preventive Conservation of Cultural Heritage

PubMed Central

Fernández-Navajas, Ángel; Merello, Paloma; Beltrán, Pedro; García-Diego, Fernando-Juan

2013-01-01

Cultural Heritage preventive conservation requires the monitoring of the parameters involved in the process of deterioration of artworks. Thus, both long-term monitoring of the environmental parameters as well as further analysis of the recorded data are necessary. The long-term monitoring at frequencies higher than 1 data point/day generates large volumes of data that are difficult to store, manage and analyze. This paper presents software which uses a free open source database engine that allows managing and interacting with huge amounts of data from environmental monitoring of cultural heritage sites. It is of simple operation and offers multiple capabilities, such as detection of anomalous data, inquiries, graph plotting and mean trajectories. It is also possible to export the data to a spreadsheet for analyses with more advanced statistical methods (principal component analysis, ANOVA, linear regression, etc.). This paper also deals with a practical application developed for the Renaissance frescoes of the Cathedral of Valencia. The results suggest infiltration of rainwater in the vault and weekly relative humidity changes related with the religious service schedules. PMID:23447005

Statistical tools applied in the characterisation and evaluation of a thermo-hygrometric corrective action carried out at the Noheda archaeological site (Noheda, Spain).

PubMed

Valero, Miguel Ángel; Merello, Paloma; Navajas, Ángel Fernández; García-Diego, Fernando-Juan

2014-01-17

The Noheda archaeological site is unique and exceptional for its size, and the quality and conservation condition of the Roman mosaic pavement covering its urban pars. In 2008 a tent was installed as protection from rain and sun. Being of interest to characterise the microclimate of the remains, six probes with relative humidity and temperature sensors were installed in 2013 for this purpose. Microclimate monitoring allowed us to check relative humidity differences resulting from the groundwater level, as well as inner sensors reaching maximum temperatures higher than the outdoors ones as a consequence of the non-ventilated tent covering the archaeological site. Microclimatic conditions in the archaeological site were deemed detrimental for the conservation of the mosaics. Thus, in summer 2013, expanded clay and geotextile were installed over the mosaics as a corrective action. The outcomes of this study have proven the effectiveness of this solution to control temperature and relative humidity, helping to configure a more stable microclimate suitable for preservation of the mosaic.

Challenges of climate change

PubMed Central

Husaini, Amjad M

2014-01-01

Kashmir valley is a major saffron (Crocus sativus Kashmirianus) growing area of the world, second only to Iran in terms of production. In Kashmir, saffron is grown on uplands (termed in the local language as “Karewas”), which are lacustrine deposits located at an altitude of 1585 to 1677 m above mean sea level (amsl), under temperate climatic conditions. Kashmir, despite being one of the oldest historical saffron-producing areas faces a rapid decline of saffron industry. Among many other factors responsible for decline of saffron industry the preponderance of erratic rainfalls and drought-like situation have become major challenges imposed by climate change. Saffron has a limited coverage area as it is grown as a ‘niche crop’ and is a recognized “geographical indication,” growing under a narrow microclimatic condition. As such it has become a victim of climate change effects, which has the potential of jeopardizing the livelihood of thousands of farmers and traders associated with it. The paper discusses the potential and actual impact of climate change process on saffron cultivation in Kashmir; and the biotechnological measures to address these issues. PMID:25072266

Genetic evidence for adaptation-driven incipient speciation of Drosophila melanogaster along a microclimatic contrast in “Evolution Canyon,” Israel

PubMed Central

Michalak, Pawel; Minkov, Irina; Helin, Amanda; Lerman, Daniel N.; Bettencourt, Brian R.; Feder, Martin E.; Korol, Abraham B.; Nevo, Eviatar

2001-01-01

Substantial genetic differentiation, as great as among species, exists between populations of Drosophila melanogaster inhabiting opposite slopes of a small canyon. Previous work has shown that prezygotic sexual isolation and numerous differences in stress-related phenotypes have evolved between D. melanogaster populations in “Evolution Canyon,” Israel, in which slopes 100–400 m apart differ dramatically in aridity, solar radiation, and associated vegetation. Because the canyon's width is well within flies' dispersal capabilities, we examined genetic changes associated with local adaptation and incipient speciation in the absence of geographical isolation. Here we report remarkable genetic differentiation of microsatellites and divergence in the regulatory region of hsp70Ba which encodes the major inducible heat shock protein of Drosophila, in the two populations. Additionally, an analysis of microsatellites suggests a limited exchange of migrants and lack of recent population bottlenecks. We hypothesize that adaptation to the contrasting microclimates overwhelms gene flow and is responsible for the genetic and phenotypic divergence between the populations. PMID:11687637

Microclimate and human factors in the divergent ecology of Aedes aegypti along the Arizona, U.S./Sonora, MX border.

PubMed

Hayden, Mary H; Uejio, Christopher K; Walker, Kathleen; Ramberg, Frank; Moreno, Rafael; Rosales, Cecilia; Gameros, Mercedes; Mearns, Linda O; Zielinski-Gutierrez, Emily; Janes, Craig R

2010-08-01

This study examined the association of human and environmental factors with the presence of Aedes aegypti, the vector for dengue fever and yellow fever viruses, in a desert region in the southwest United States and northwest Mexico. Sixty-eight sites were longitudinally surveyed along the United States-Mexico border in Tucson, AZ, Nogales, AZ, and Nogales, Sonora during a 3-year period. Aedes aegypti presence or absence at each site was measured three times per year using standard oviposition traps. Maximum and minimum temperature and relative humidity were measured hourly at each site. Field inventories were conducted to measure human housing factors potentially affecting mosquito presence, such as the use of air-conditioning and evaporative coolers, outdoor vegetation cover, and access to piped water. The results showed that Ae. aegypti presence was highly variable across space and time. Aedes aegypti presence was positively associated with highly vegetated areas. Other significant variables included microclimatic differences and access to piped water. This study demonstrates the importance of microclimate and human factors in predicting Ae. aegypti distribution in an arid environment.

Climate change and health: global to local influences on disease risk.

PubMed

Patz, J A; Olson, S H

2006-01-01

The World Health Organization has concluded that the climatic changes that have occurred since the mid 1970s could already be causing annually over 150,000 deaths and five million disability-adjusted life-years (DALY), mainly in developing countries. The less developed countries are, ironically, those least responsible for causing global warming. Many health outcomes and diseases are sensitive to climate, including: heat-related mortality or morbidity; air pollution-related illnesses; infectious diseases, particularly those transmitted, indirectly, via water or by insect or rodent vectors; and refugee health issues linked to forced population migration. Yet, changing landscapes can significantly affect local weather more acutely than long-term climate change. Land-cover change can influence micro-climatic conditions, including temperature, evapo-transpiration and surface run-off, that are key determinants in the emergence of many infectious diseases. To improve risk assessment and risk management of these synergistic processes (climate and land-use change), more collaborative efforts in research, training and policy-decision support, across the fields of health, environment, sociology and economics, are required.

Ground-level climate at a peatland wind farm in Scotland is affected by wind turbine operation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Armstrong, Alona; Burton, Ralph R.; Lee, Susan E.; Mobbs, Stephen; Ostle, Nicholas; Smith, Victoria; Waldron, Susan; Whitaker, Jeanette

2016-04-01

The global drive to produce low-carbon energy has resulted in an unprecedented deployment of onshore wind turbines, representing a significant land use change for wind energy generation with uncertain consequences for local climatic conditions and the regulation of ecosystem processes. Here, we present high-resolution data from a wind farm collected during operational and idle periods that shows the wind farm affected several measures of ground-level climate. Specifically, we discovered that operational wind turbines raised air temperature by 0.18 °C and absolute humidity (AH) by 0.03 g m-3 during the night, and increased the variability in air, surface and soil temperature throughout the diurnal cycle. Further, the microclimatic influence of turbines on air temperature and AH decreased logarithmically with distance from the nearest turbine. These effects on ground-level microclimate, including soil temperature, have uncertain implications for biogeochemical processes and ecosystem carbon cycling, including soil carbon stocks. Consequently, understanding needs to be improved to determine the overall carbon balance of wind energy.

Development of Personalized Radiant Cooling System for an Office Room

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Khare, Vaibhav; Sharma, Anuj; Mathur, Jyotirmay

2015-01-01

The building industry nowadays is facing two major challenges increased concern for energy reduction and growing need for thermal comfort. These challenges have led many researchers to develop Radiant Cooling Systems that show a large potential for energy savings. This study aims to develop a personalized cooling system using the principle of radiant cooling integrated with conventional all-air system to achieve better thermal environment at the workspace. Personalized conditioning aims to create a microclimatic zone around a single workspace. In this way, the energy is deployed only where it is actually needed, and the individual s needs for thermal comfortmore » are fulfilled. To study the effect of air temperature along with air temperature distribution for workspace, air temperature near the vicinity of the occupant has been obtained as a result of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulation using FLUENT. The analysis showed that personalized radiant system improves thermal environment near the workspace and allows all-air systems to work at higher thermostat temperature without compromising the thermal comfort, which in turn reduces its energy consumption.« less

Mapping habitat suitability for at-risk plant species and its implications for restoration and reintroduction.

PubMed

Questad, Erin J; Kellner, James R; Kinney, Kealoha; Cordell, Susan; Asner, Gregory P; Thaxton, Jarrod; Diep, Jennifer; Uowolo, Amanda; Brooks, Sam; Inman-Narahari, Nikhil; Evans, Steven A; Tucker, Brian

2014-03-01

The conservation of species at risk of extinction requires data to support decisions at landscape to regional scales. There is a need for information that can assist with locating suitable habitats in fragmented and degraded landscapes to aid the reintroduction of at-risk plant species. In addition, desiccation and water stress can be significant barriers to the success of at-risk plant reintroduction programs. We examine how airborne light detection and ranging (LiDAR) data can be used to model microtopographic features that reduce water stress and increase resource availability, providing information for landscape planning that can increase the success of reintroduction efforts for a dryland landscape in Hawaii. We developed a topographic habitat-suitability model (HSM) from LiDAR data that identifies topographic depressions that are protected from prevailing winds (high-suitability sites) and contrasts them with ridges and other exposed areas (low-suitability sites). We tested in the field whether high-suitability sites had microclimatic conditions that indicated better-quality habitat compared to low-suitability sites, whether plant-response traits indicated better growing conditions in high-suitability sites, whether the locations of individuals of existing at-risk plant species corresponded with our habitat-suitability classes, and whether the survival of planted individuals of a common native species was greater in high-suitability, compared to low-suitability, planting sites. Mean wind speed in a high-suitability field site was over five times lower than in a low-suitability site, and soil moisture and leaf wetness were greater, indicating less stress and greater resource availability in high-suitability areas. Plant height and leaf nutrient content were greater in high-suitability areas. Six at-risk species showed associations with high-suitability areas. The survival of planted individuals was less variable among high-suitability plots. These results suggest that plant establishment and survival is associated with the habitat conditions identified by our model. The HSM can improve the survival of planted individuals, reduce the cost of restoration and reintroduction programs through targeted management activities in high-suitability areas, and expand the ability of managers to make landscape-scale decisions regarding land-use, land acquisition, and species recovery.

Peatland carbon cycling at a Scottish wind farm: the role of plant-soil interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richardson, Harriett; Whitaker, Jeanette; Waldron, Susan; Ostle, Nick

2013-04-01

Peatlands play a fundamental role in the terrestrial carbon cycle by storing 1/3 of the world's soil carbon (Limpens et al. 2008). In the UK, peatlands are often located in areas with potential for electricity generation by harvesting wind energy. Concerns have been raised, however, over the stability of these carbon stocks when large scale wind developments are sited upon them. This project aims to improve understanding of the impact of wind farms on carbon sequestration in peatlands. Wind turbine 'wake-effects' can alter microclimatic conditions, as a result of significant differences in air temperature, humidity, wind speed and turbulence (Baidya Roy and Traiteur 2010). These changes are likely to have a significant impact on above and below ground abiotic conditions and biotic properties, together with the processes they regulate that govern peatland carbon cycling. Specifically, the effects of interactions between typical peatland plant functional types (graminoids, bryophytes and shrubs) (Ward et al. 2009) and peat microbial community composition and function are poorly resolved. We examined a spatial gradient across an area of blanket bog at Black Law wind farm (Lanarkshire, Scotland) and executed a series of controlled mesocosm experiments to examine the impacts of potential microclimatic changes on plant-soil interactions and carbon sequestration processes. In particular we focused on the form and function of plant and microbial communities as determinants of decomposition (Ward et al. 2010) and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (Artz 2009). Measurements of plant-litter-soil carbon, nitrogen, microbial community composition (i.e. phospholipid fatty acid biomarkers) and litter mass loss have been made across the wind farm peatland to attribute spatial variance in biotic and biogeochemical properties. In addition, multi-factorial mesocosm experiments have been made to determine how abiotic and biotic changes caused by wind farm effects could influence peat GHG emissions. These experiments used intact peat cores to assess the interacting effects of temperature, water table and plant functional type on GHG fluxes and rates of peatland plant litter decomposition. Results show significant differences in soil chemistry and microbial community composition across the wind farm gradient with few seasonal effects. Findings from controlled mesocosm experiments offer evidence that CO2 and CH4 fluxes were significantly altered over a 4° C temperature range at three different water table heights. The more anaerobic cores produced greatest CH4 fluxes, whereas warmer more aerobic conditions favoured CO2 production. Plant functional types differentially influence emissions, with graminoid cores exerting the greatest control over GHG fluxes. Significant synergistic effects suggest that abiotic drivers are key, yet plant-soil biology interacts to mediate carbon cycling. Thus, changes to plant-soil interactions resulting from wind farm 'wake-effects' could have important implications for peatland carbon sequestration.

Oceans Apart: Using Stable Isotopes to Assess the Role of Fog in Two Semi-Arid Island Ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmitt, S.; Riveros-Iregui, D.; Hu, J.

2017-12-01

Fog is a significant hydrologic input in many tropical island systems, and is a water source particularly susceptible to the effects of global climate change. To better understand the role of fog as a hydrological input in two oceanic islands, we address two principal questions: 1) Do seasonal or extreme precipitation events lead to distinguishable differences in stable isotopic signatures of water inputs within and between sites and islands? 2) Does microclimatic zonation lead to distinguishable differences in isotopic signatures of meteoric inputs between different sites on a given island? To perform this analysis, meteoric water samples (fog, rain and throughfall) were collected over three sites (one windward and two leeward) and three field seasons in San Cristobal, Galapagos to ascertain the isotopic signature of each water balance input during different times of year. An additional field season of data in Ascension Island, UK, was also used to perform a comparative analysis between islands. A stable isotope mixing model was used to determine the relative proportion of surface water and groundwater that is composed of fog, and to demonstrate spatiotemporal patterns of recharge dynamics in each island system. Local meteoric water lines were generated for each site and over each field season to determine the source of hydrologic inputs (trade wind-generated orographic precipitation versus storm precipitation) and the role of locally recycled water in the overall water balance of each site. Our results will approximate potential changes in water inputs to San Cristobal and Ascension, respectively, that could be impacted by an increase in cloud base height or a change in weather patterns brought about by climate change.

A new paradigm for Aedes spp. surveillance using gravid ovipositing sticky trap and NS1 antigen test kit.

PubMed

Lau, Sai Ming; Chua, Tock H; Sulaiman, Wan-Yussof; Joanne, Sylvia; Lim, Yvonne Ai-Lian; Sekaran, Shamala Devi; Chinna, Karuthan; Venugopalan, Balan; Vythilingam, Indra

2017-03-21

Dengue remains a serious public health problem in Southeast Asia and has increased 37-fold in Malaysia compared to decades ago. New strategies are urgently needed for early detection and control of dengue epidemics. We conducted a two year study in a high human density dengue-endemic urban area in Selangor, where Gravid Ovipositing Sticky (GOS) traps were set up to capture adult Aedes spp. mosquitoes. All Aedes mosquitoes were tested using the NS1 dengue antigen test kit. All dengue cases from the study site notified to the State Health Department were recorded. Weekly microclimatic temperature, relative humidity (RH) and rainfall were monitored. Aedes aegypti was the predominant mosquito (95.6%) caught in GOS traps and 23% (43/187 pools of 5 mosquitoes each) were found to be positive for dengue using the NS1 antigen kit. Confirmed cases of dengue were observed with a lag of one week after positive Ae. aegypti were detected. Aedes aegypti density as analysed by distributed lag non-linear models, will increase lag of 2-3 weeks for temperature increase from 28 to 30 °C; and lag of three weeks for increased rainfall. Proactive strategy is needed for dengue vector surveillance programme. One method would be to use the GOS trap which is simple to setup, cost effective (below USD 1 per trap) and environmental friendly (i.e. use recyclable plastic materials) to capture Ae. aegypti followed by a rapid method of detecting of dengue virus using the NS1 dengue antigen kit. Control measures should be initiated when positive mosquitoes are detected.

Temporal and micro-spatial heterogeneity in the distribution of Anopheles vectors of malaria along the Kenyan coast

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background The distribution of anopheline mosquitoes is determined by temporally dynamic environmental and human-associated variables, operating over a range of spatial scales. Macro-spatial short-term trends are driven predominantly by prior (lagged) seasonal changes in climate, which regulate the abundance of suitable aquatic larval habitats. Micro-spatial distribution is determined by the location of these habitats, proximity and abundance of available human bloodmeals and prevailing micro-climatic conditions. The challenge of analysing—in a single coherent statistical framework—the lagged and distributed effect of seasonal climate changes simultaneously with the effects of an underlying hierarchy of spatial factors has hitherto not been addressed. Methods Data on Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto and A. funestus collected from households in Kilifi district, Kenya, were analysed using polynomial distributed lag generalized linear mixed models (PDL GLMMs). Results Anopheline density was positively and significantly associated with amount of rainfall between 4 to 47 days, negatively and significantly associated with maximum daily temperature between 5 and 35 days, and positively and significantly associated with maximum daily temperature between 29 and 48 days in the past (depending on Anopheles species). Multiple-occupancy households harboured greater mosquito numbers than single-occupancy households. A significant degree of mosquito clustering within households was identified. Conclusions The PDL GLMMs developed here represent a generalizable framework for analysing hierarchically-structured data in combination with explanatory variables which elicit lagged effects. The framework is a valuable tool for facilitating detailed understanding of determinants of the spatio-temporal distribution of Anopheles. Such understanding facilitates delivery of targeted, cost-effective and, in certain circumstances, preventative antivectorial interventions against malaria. PMID:24330615

Using chromosome introgression lines to map quantitative trait loci for photosynthesis parameters in rice (Oryza sativa L.) leaves under drought and well-watered field conditions

PubMed Central

Gu, Junfei; Yin, Xinyou; Struik, Paul C.; Stomph, Tjeerd Jan; Wang, Huaqi

2012-01-01

Photosynthesis is fundamental to biomass production, but sensitive to drought. To understand the genetics of leaf photosynthesis, especially under drought, upland rice cv. Haogelao, lowland rice cv. Shennong265, and 94 of their introgression lines (ILs) were studied at flowering and grain filling under drought and well-watered field conditions. Gas exchange and chlorophyll fluorescence measurements were conducted to evaluate eight photosynthetic traits. Since these traits are very sensitive to fluctuations in microclimate during measurements under field conditions, observations were adjusted for microclimatic differences through both a statistical covariant model and a physiological approach. Both approaches identified leaf-to-air vapour pressure difference as the variable influencing the traits most. Using the simple sequence repeat (SSR) linkage map for the IL population, 1–3 quantitative trait loci (QTLs) were detected per trait–stage–treatment combination, which explained between 7.0% and 30.4% of the phenotypic variance of each trait. The clustered QTLs near marker RM410 (the interval from 57.3 cM to 68.4 cM on chromosome 9) were consistent over both development stages and both drought and well-watered conditions. This QTL consistency was verified by a greenhouse experiment under a controlled environment. The alleles from the upland rice at this interval had positive effects on net photosynthetic rate, stomatal conductance, transpiration rate, quantum yield of photosystem II (PSII), and the maximum efficiency of light-adapted open PSII. However, the allele of another main QTL from upland rice was associated with increased drought sensitivity of photosynthesis. These results could potentially be used in breeding programmes through marker-assisted selection to improve drought tolerance and photosynthesis simultaneously. PMID:21984650

Seasonal Snowpack Dynamics and Runoff in a Maritime Forested Basin, Niigata, Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Whitaker, A. C.; Sugiyama, H.

2005-12-01

Seasonal snowpack dynamics are described through field measurements under contrasting canopy conditions for a mountainous catchment in the Japan Sea region. Microclimatic data, snow accumulation, albedo and lysimeter runoff is given through three complete winter seasons 2002-05 in: (1) mature cedar stand, (2) larch stand, and (3) regenerating cedar stand or opening. The accumulation and melt of seasonal snowpack strongly influences streamflow runoff during December to May, including winter base-flow, mid-winter melt, rain-on-snow, and diurnal peaks driven by radiation melt in spring. Lysimeter runoff at all sites is characterised by constant ground melt of 0.8-1.0 mm/day. Rapid response to mid-winter melt or rainfall shows that the snowpack remains in a ripe or near-ripe condition throughout the snowcover season. Hourly and daily lysimeter discharge was greatest during rain-on-snow with the majority of runoff due to rainfall passing through the snowpack as opposed to snowmelt. For both rain-on-snow and radiation melt events lysimeter discharge was generally greatest at the open site, although there were exceptions such as during interception melt events. During radiation melt instantaneous discharge was up to 4.0 times greater in the opening compared to the mature cedar, and 48-hour discharge was up to 2.5 times greater. Perhaps characteristic of maritime climates, forest interception melt is shown to be important in addition to sublimation in reducing snow accumulation beneath dense canopies. While sublimation represents a loss from the catchment water balance, interception melt percolates through the snowpack and contributes to soil moisture during the winter season. Strong differences in microclimate and snowpack albedo persisted between cedar, larch and open sites, and it is suggested further work is needed to account for this in hydrological simulation models.

The relevance of rooftops: Analyzing the microscale surface energy balance in the Chicago region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khosla, Radhika

Spatial structure in climate variables often exist over very short length scales within an urban area, and this structure is a result of various site-specific features. In order to analyze the seasonal and diurnal energy flows that take place at a microclimatic surface, this work develops a semi-empirical energy balance model. For this, radiation fluxes and meteorological measurements are determined by direct observation; sensible heat and latent heat fluxes by parameterizations; and the heat storage flux by a 1-D mechanistic model that allows analysis of the temperature profile and heat storage within an underlying slab. Two sites receive detailed study: an anthropogenic site, being a University of Chicago building rooftop, and a natural site, outside Chicago in the open country. Two identical sets of instruments record measurements contemporaneously from these locations during June-November 2007, the entire period for which analyses are carried out. The study yields seasonal trends in surface temperature, surface-to-air temperature contrast and net radiation. At both sites, a temporal hysteresis between net radiation and heat storage flux indicates that surplus energy absorbed during daylight is released to the atmosphere later in the evening. The surface energy balance model responds well to site specific features for both locations. An analysis of the surface energy balance shows that the flux of sensible heat is the largest non-radiative contributor to the roof's surface cooling, while the flux of latent heat (also referred to as evaporative cooling) is the largest heat sink for the soil layer. In the latter part of the study, the surface energy balance model is upgraded by adding the capability to compute changes in surface temperature and non-radiative fluxes for any specified set of thermal and reflective roof properties. The results of this analysis allow an examination of the relationship between the roof temperature, the heat flux entering the building interior through the roof, and the physical properties of the surface. These results hold particular relevance for urban heat island mitigation strategies. Based on the results of this work, recommendations are proposed for widespread adoption of various techniques that enhance building energy efficiency (particularly targeting rooftops), mitigate the negative impacts of the urban heat island, and overcome the current barriers to transforming the market.

Estimation of Model's Marginal likelihood Using Adaptive Sparse Grid Surrogates in Bayesian Model Averaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeng, X.

2015-12-01

A large number of model executions are required to obtain alternative conceptual models' predictions and their posterior probabilities in Bayesian model averaging (BMA). The posterior model probability is estimated through models' marginal likelihood and prior probability. The heavy computation burden hinders the implementation of BMA prediction, especially for the elaborated marginal likelihood estimator. For overcoming the computation burden of BMA, an adaptive sparse grid (SG) stochastic collocation method is used to build surrogates for alternative conceptual models through the numerical experiment of a synthetical groundwater model. BMA predictions depend on model posterior weights (or marginal likelihoods), and this study also evaluated four marginal likelihood estimators, including arithmetic mean estimator (AME), harmonic mean estimator (HME), stabilized harmonic mean estimator (SHME), and thermodynamic integration estimator (TIE). The results demonstrate that TIE is accurate in estimating conceptual models' marginal likelihoods. The BMA-TIE has better predictive performance than other BMA predictions. TIE has high stability for estimating conceptual model's marginal likelihood. The repeated estimated conceptual model's marginal likelihoods by TIE have significant less variability than that estimated by other estimators. In addition, the SG surrogates are efficient to facilitate BMA predictions, especially for BMA-TIE. The number of model executions needed for building surrogates is 4.13%, 6.89%, 3.44%, and 0.43% of the required model executions of BMA-AME, BMA-HME, BMA-SHME, and BMA-TIE, respectively.

Increasing arboreality with altitude: a novel biogeographic dimension

PubMed Central

Scheffers, Brett R.; Phillips, Ben L.; Laurance, William F.; Sodhi, Navjot S.; Diesmos, Arvin; Williams, Stephen E.

2013-01-01

Biodiversity is spatially organized by climatic gradients across elevation and latitude. But do other gradients exist that might drive biogeographic patterns? Here, we show that rainforest's vertical strata provide climatic gradients much steeper than those offered by elevation and latitude, and biodiversity of arboreal species is organized along this gradient. In Philippine and Singaporean rainforests, we demonstrate that rainforest frogs tend to shift up in the rainforest strata as altitude increases. Moreover, a Philippine-wide dataset of frog distributions shows that frog assemblages become increasingly arboreal at higher elevations. Thus, increased arboreality with elevation at broad biogeographic scales mirrors patterns we observed at local scales. Our proposed ‘arboreality hypothesis’ suggests that the ability to exploit arboreal habitats confers the potential for larger geographical distributions because species can shift their location in the rainforest strata to compensate for shifts in temperature associated with elevation and latitude. This novel finding may help explain patterns of species richness and abundance wherever vegetation produces a vertical microclimatic gradient. Our results further suggest that global warming will ‘flatten’ the biodiversity in rainforests by pushing arboreal species towards the cooler and wetter ground. This ‘flattening’ could potentially have serious impacts on forest functioning and species survival. PMID:24026817

Do Aphids Alter Leaf Surface Temperature Patterns During Early Infestation?

PubMed Central

Cahon, Thomas; Caillon, Robin

2018-01-01

Arthropods at the surface of plants live in particular microclimatic conditions that can differ from atmospheric conditions. The temperature of plant leaves can deviate from air temperature, and leaf temperature influences the eco-physiology of small insects. The activity of insects feeding on leaf tissues, may, however, induce changes in leaf surface temperatures, but this effect was only rarely demonstrated. Using thermography analysis of leaf surfaces under controlled environmental conditions, we quantified the impact of presence of apple green aphids on the temperature distribution of apple leaves during early infestation. Aphids induced a slight change in leaf surface temperature patterns after only three days of infestation, mostly due to the effect of aphids on the maximal temperature that can be found at the leaf surface. Aphids may induce stomatal closure, leading to a lower transpiration rate. This effect was local since aphids modified the configuration of the temperature distribution over leaf surfaces. Aphids were positioned at temperatures near the maximal leaf surface temperatures, thus potentially experiencing the thermal changes. The feedback effect of feeding activity by insects on their host plant can be important and should be quantified to better predict the response of phytophagous insects to environmental changes. PMID:29538342

[Influence of meteorological factors on the activity of the adult taiga tick (Ixodes persulcatus Sch., Ixodinae) in St. Petersburg and its environs].

PubMed

Osipova, T N; Grigoryeva, L A; Samoylova, E P; Shapar, A O; Bychkova, E M

2017-01-01

The article deals with influence of meteorolical factors on the activity of the taiga tick Ixodes persulvatus Sch. in St. Petersburg and its environs. The results of correlation analysis of meteorological data (21 index) and data ticks collected in 1980-2012 allowed determining linear dependence between 11 meteorological indices an average amount of ticks. Factor analysis reduced dimentionality down to 3 indices: sum of temperatures higher than +5.0 °C, sum of precipitation higher than 5 mm per year, and Selyaninov hydrothermal coefficient. It was demonstrated that, at the background of the general tendency for the decrease of the average number of active ticks in the studied territories, correlation between the amount of ticks and meteorological indices can significantly vary as in the correlation density, so in the character and in dependence of microclimatic features of the collecting site. When variability of the mean abundance of ticks during years of investigation is low, the methods of collecting can significantly affect the results of the statistical analysis. This fact must be taken in consideration during prognosis of both dates of the beginning of epidemiological season and its intensity.

Study of the environmental variables affecting the natural preservation of the Altamira Cave paintings located at Santillana del Mar, Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quindos, L. S.; Bonet, A.; Diaz-Caneja, N.; Fernandez, P. L.; Gutierrez, I.; Solana, J. R.; Soto, J.; Villar, E.

A study was carried out over a period of more than two years of the seasonal variations shown by the different variables that determine the microclimatic and chromatic characteristics of the Altamira Cave, Spain, under natural conditions, i.e. in the absence of visitors to the cave. The Altamira Cave contains 16,000-year-old prehistoric paintings and as such is a priceless legacy from the distant past. Temperatures of the air, floors and roofs, air humidity, and CO 2 concentrations of the different chambers of the cave were measured. Flow rate and chemical composition of the waters flowing into the paintings chamber were also analyzed. A chromatic characterization of the paintings, determining the psychrometric coordinates of the colour, lightness, chroma and hue, was made. This study has not only enabled presentation of the state of conservation of the famous polychrome roof of the Paintings Chamber, but has also supplied a reference point for later studies. Future experiments could be made with various controlled regimes of visitors to the cave in order to establish suitable criteria for the best possible preservation of the cave paintings.

Wing morphology variations in a natural population of Phlebotomus tobbi Adler and Theodor 1930.

PubMed

Oguz, Gizem; Kasap, Ozge Erisoz; Alten, Bulent

2017-12-01

Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is highly endemic in the Cukurova region, located on the crossroads of main refugee routes from the Middle East to Europe on the eastern Mediterranean part of Turkey. Our purpose was to investigate the phenotypic variation of Phlebotomus tobbi, the known vector of CL in the region, during one active season. Sand flies and microclimatic data were collected monthly from May to October, 2011, from five locations in six villages in the study area. A geometric morphometric approach was used to investigate wing morphology. Shape analyses revealed that males collected in May and June comprised one group, while specimens collected in August, September, and October formed a second group. Specimens from July were found to be distributed within these two groups. A similar distribution pattern was observed for females, but specimens from October were represented as the third district group. Significant size variation was detected for both sexes between months. Wing size and temperature were negatively correlated for females, but there was no temperature effect for males. Wing size of both sexes was increased in correlation to increasing relative humidity. Males were found to have smaller wings with increasing population density. © 2017 The Society for Vector Ecology.

Effects of tropical montane forest disturbance on epiphytic macrolichens.

PubMed

Benítez, Angel; Prieto, María; González, Yadira; Aragón, Gregorio

2012-12-15

The high diversity of epiphytes typical of undisturbed montane tropical forests has been negatively affected by continuous deforestation and forest conversion to secondary vegetation. Macrolichens are an important component of these epiphytes. Because their physiology is strongly coupled to humidity and solar radiation, we hypothesized that microclimatic changes derived from forest clearing and logging can affect the diversity of these poikilohydric organisms. In southern Ecuador, we examined three types of forests according to a disturbance gradient (primary forests, secondary forests, and monospecific forests of Alnus acuminata) for the presence/absence and coverage of epiphytic macrolichens that we identified on 240 trees. We found that total richness tended to decrease when the range of the disturbance increased. The impoverishment was particularly drastic for "shade-adapted lichens", while the richness of "heliophytic lichens" increased in the drier conditions of secondary growth. Epiphytic composition also differed significantly among the three types of forests, and the similarity decreased when the range of the disturbance was greater. We concluded that a span of 40 years of recovery by secondary vegetation was not enough to regenerate the diversity of epiphytic macrolichens that was lost due to forest disturbances. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Challenges of climate change: omics-based biology of saffron plants and organic agricultural biotechnology for sustainable saffron production.

PubMed

Husaini, Amjad M

2014-01-01

Kashmir Valley is a major saffron (Crocus sativus Kashmirianus) growing area of the world, second only to Iran in terms of production. In Kashmir, saffron is grown on uplands (termed in the local language as "Karewas"), which are lacustrine deposits located at an altitude of 1585 to 1677 m above mean sea level (amsl), under temperate climatic conditions. Kashmir, despite being one of the oldest historical saffron-producing areas, faces a rapid decline of saffron industry. Among many other factors responsible for decline of saffron industry the preponderance of erratic rainfalls and drought-like situation have become major challenges imposed by climate change. Saffron has a limited coverage area as it is grown as a 'niche crop' and is a recognized "geographical indication," growing under a narrow microclimatic condition. As such it has become a victim of climate change effects, which has the potential of jeopardizing the livelihood of thousands of farmers and traders associated with it. The paper discusses the potential and actual impact of climate change process on saffron cultivation in Kashmir; and the biotechnological measures to address these issues.

Ecology and sampling techniques of an understudied subterranean habitat: the Milieu Souterrain Superficiel (MSS).

PubMed

Mammola, Stefano; Giachino, Pier Mauro; Piano, Elena; Jones, Alexandra; Barberis, Marcel; Badino, Giovanni; Isaia, Marco

2016-12-01

The term Milieu Souterrain Superficiel (MSS) has been used since the early 1980s in subterranean biology to categorize an array of different hypogean habitats. In general terms, a MSS habitat represents the underground network of empty air-filled voids and cracks developing within multiple layers of rock fragments. Its origins can be diverse and is generally covered by topsoil. The MSS habitat is often connected both with the deep hypogean domain-caves and deep rock cracks-and the superficial soil horizon. A MSS is usually characterized by peculiar microclimatic conditions, and it can harbor specialized hypogean, endogean, and surface-dwelling species. In light of the many interpretations given by different authors, we reviewed 235 papers regarding the MSS in order to provide a state-of-the-art description of these habitats and facilitate their study. We have briefly described the different types of MSS mentioned in the scientific literature (alluvial, bedrock, colluvial, volcanic, and other types) and synthesized the advances in the study of the physical and ecological factors affecting this habitat-i.e., microclimate, energy flows, animal communities, and trophic interactions. We finally described and reviewed the available sampling methods used to investigate MSS fauna.

Ecology and sampling techniques of an understudied subterranean habitat: the Milieu Souterrain Superficiel (MSS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mammola, Stefano; Giachino, Pier Mauro; Piano, Elena; Jones, Alexandra; Barberis, Marcel; Badino, Giovanni; Isaia, Marco

2016-12-01

The term Milieu Souterrain Superficiel (MSS) has been used since the early 1980s in subterranean biology to categorize an array of different hypogean habitats. In general terms, a MSS habitat represents the underground network of empty air-filled voids and cracks developing within multiple layers of rock fragments. Its origins can be diverse and is generally covered by topsoil. The MSS habitat is often connected both with the deep hypogean domain—caves and deep rock cracks—and the superficial soil horizon. A MSS is usually characterized by peculiar microclimatic conditions, and it can harbor specialized hypogean, endogean, and surface-dwelling species. In light of the many interpretations given by different authors, we reviewed 235 papers regarding the MSS in order to provide a state-of-the-art description of these habitats and facilitate their study. We have briefly described the different types of MSS mentioned in the scientific literature (alluvial, bedrock, colluvial, volcanic, and other types) and synthesized the advances in the study of the physical and ecological factors affecting this habitat—i.e., microclimate, energy flows, animal communities, and trophic interactions. We finally described and reviewed the available sampling methods used to investigate MSS fauna.

Progress in the application of landform analysis in studies of semiarid erosion

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schumm, Stanley Alfred; Hadley, R.F.

1961-01-01

The analysis of topographic and hydrologic data gathered during studies of erosion in semiarid areas of Western United States show the following relation: (a) Mean annual sediment yield from small drainage basins is related to a ratio of basin relief to length; (b) mean annual runoff from small drainage basins is related to drainage density; (c) mean annual sediment yield per unit area decreases with increase in drainage area; (d) the form of some convex hill slopes is related to surficial creep; (e) asymmetry of drainage basins, including differences in hill-slope erosion and drainage density, is related to microclimatic variations on slopes of diverse exposure; .(f) the cutting of discontinuous gullies is closely related to steepening by deposition of the semiarid valley floor; (g) aggradation in ephemeral streams seems to be most prevalent in reaches where the ratio of contributing drainage area to channel length is relatively small; and (h) streamchannel shape, expressed as a width-depth ratio, is related to the percentage of silt-clay in bed and bank alluvium. The above relations cannot be detected without measurement of terrain characteristics. They further indicate the importance of quantitative terrain analysis in studies of erosion.

Effect of humid tropical climate on the thermoregulatory response of Limousin × Creole and Creole growing bulls in Guadeloupe (French West Indies)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berbigier, P.; Sergent, D.; Sophie, S. A.; Barlet, J. P.; Decoux, G.

1987-03-01

In Guadeloupe (French West Indies), eight Limousin × Creole (local) growing bulls and eight Creole bulls were either exposed to full sunshine or shaded; each climatic treatment involved half of the animals of each breed. All the bulls were fed ad libitum on a concentrate diet. Twice a week, around 12 a.m., respiratory rhythm, rectal temperature, heart rate as well as microclimatic parameters (mainly black globe temperature) were measured and a blood sample taken for packed cell volume, prolactin, and triiodothyronin (T3) plasma concentration determination. Respiratory rhythm and, to a lesser extent, rectal temperature were found to increase more for the Limousin × Creole crossbred than for the Creole bull on exposure to the sun and rise in globe temperature. However, the heart rate and blood parameters in the crossbred did not seem seriously affected by heat. This seems to indicate that the crossbred animals, though they required more positive thermal regulation than the local cattle, are not heat-stressed in the West Indian conditions. These findings are also supported by the lack of effect of exposure to the sun on the growth and carcass characteristics of such animals (reported elsewhere).

Analyzing the edge effects in a Brazilian seasonally dry tropical forest.

PubMed

Arruda, D M; Eisenlohr, P V

2016-02-01

Due to the deciduous nature of dry forests (widely known as seasonally dry tropical forests) they are subject to microclimatic conditions not experienced in other forest formations. Close examinations of the theory of edge effects in dry forests are still rare and a number of questions arise in terms of this topic. In light of this situation we examined a fragment of the dry forest to respond to the following questions: (I) Are there differences in canopy cover along the edge-interior gradient during the dry season? (II) How does the microclimate (air temperature, soil temperature, and relative humidity) vary along that gradient? (III) How does the microclimate influence tree species richness, evenness and abundance along that gradient? (IV) Are certain tree species more dominant closer to the forest edges? Regressions were performed to address these questions. Their coefficients did not significantly vary from zero. Apparently, the uniform openness of the forest canopy caused a homogeneous internal microclimate, without significant differentiation in habitats that would allow modifications in biotic variables tested. We conclude that the processes of edge effect commonly seen in humid forests, not was shared with the dry forest assessed.

Increasing arboreality with altitude: a novel biogeographic dimension.

PubMed

Scheffers, Brett R; Phillips, Ben L; Laurance, William F; Sodhi, Navjot S; Diesmos, Arvin; Williams, Stephen E

2013-11-07

Biodiversity is spatially organized by climatic gradients across elevation and latitude. But do other gradients exist that might drive biogeographic patterns? Here, we show that rainforest's vertical strata provide climatic gradients much steeper than those offered by elevation and latitude, and biodiversity of arboreal species is organized along this gradient. In Philippine and Singaporean rainforests, we demonstrate that rainforest frogs tend to shift up in the rainforest strata as altitude increases. Moreover, a Philippine-wide dataset of frog distributions shows that frog assemblages become increasingly arboreal at higher elevations. Thus, increased arboreality with elevation at broad biogeographic scales mirrors patterns we observed at local scales. Our proposed 'arboreality hypothesis' suggests that the ability to exploit arboreal habitats confers the potential for larger geographical distributions because species can shift their location in the rainforest strata to compensate for shifts in temperature associated with elevation and latitude. This novel finding may help explain patterns of species richness and abundance wherever vegetation produces a vertical microclimatic gradient. Our results further suggest that global warming will 'flatten' the biodiversity in rainforests by pushing arboreal species towards the cooler and wetter ground. This 'flattening' could potentially have serious impacts on forest functioning and species survival.

The behavioural ecology of two sympatric talitrid species, Talitrus saltator (Montagu) and Orchestia gammarellus (Pallas) on a Tyrrhenian sandy beach dune system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Colombini, Isabella; Fallaci, Mario; Gagnarli, Elena; Rossano, Claudia; Scapini, Felicita; Chelazzi, Lorenzo

2013-01-01

The behavioural ecology of a sub-population of Talitrus saltator living on the sandy shore of the Maremma Regional Park (Italy) was compared with that of Orchestia gammarellus inhabiting the retrodunal dune slack area. Monthly monitoring over a year determined the mean distribution patterns, their changes and whether these overlapped. Standard pitfall traps were placed along transects across the beach-dune-dune slack area. Experiments analysed the diel activity rhythms during spring and the activity patterns of the different age classes and the two sexes were compared within and between species. Local environmental conditions were registered with a microclimatic station. During May and September, plant hummocks were monitored to see whether surface movements of O. gammarellus could be restricted to certain periods of the year and to estimate densities within the vegetation. The plant biomass and moisture conditions within the hummocks were also recorded and substratum samples were collected at the base of the shrubs for laboratory analysis. To test for visual cues, orientation experiments with and without landscape view were carried out on the beach during morning and afternoon hours and contemporaneously for each species. Experiments to test the diel variation of scototaxis to a black shape were also performed over a 24 h period of time under controlled conditions. There was a spatial partitioning of the two species, with T. saltator moving along a sea-land axis according to diel and seasonal changes and with some individuals reaching the back of the dune in particular environmental conditions. No spatial overlap with the zonation patterns of O. gammarellus was observed, which was restricted to the dune slack area. Nocturnal surface activity was observed for both species with juveniles peaking at dawn and with O. gammarellus being strictly more nocturnal than T. saltator. Orientation experiments showed a higher ability of T. saltator to orient towards the shoreline using solar and local cues, whereas O. gammarellus seemed to have a stronger scototaxis. Differences in the behavioural responses are discussed in terms of the species ecological adaptations to their particular habitats.

Analysis of energy fluxes and vegetation-atmosphere parameters in irrigated and natural ecosystems of semi-arid Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teixeira, A. H. de Castro; Bastiaanssen, W. G. M.; Ahmad, M. D.; Moura, M. S. B.; Bos, M. G.

2008-11-01

SummaryKnowledge on evapotranspiration is essential in quantifying water use depletion and to allocate scarce water resources to competing uses. Despite that an extensive literature describes the theoretical mechanisms of turbulent water vapour transport above and within crop canopies fewer studies have examined land surface parameters within composite landscapes of irrigated crops and semi-arid natural vegetation. Aiming to improve parameterizations of the radiation and energy balance in irrigated crops and natural vegetation, micro-climatic measurements were carried out on irrigated land (vineyards and mango orchard) and natural vegetation (caatinga) in the semi-arid zone of the São Francisco River basin (Brazil) from 2002 to 2005. The fractions of 24 h incident solar radiation available for net radiation were 46%, 55%, 51% and 53%, for wine grape, table grape, mango orchard and caatinga, respectively. Daily evaporative fractions of the net available energy used as latent heat flux ( λE) were 0.80, 0.88, 0.75 and 0.33 respectively. The daylight values of bulk surface resistances ( rs) averaged 128 s m -1, 73 s m -1, 133 s m -1 and 1940 s m -1 for wine grape, table grape, mango orchard and caatinga, respectively. Simplified parameterizations on roughness and evaporation resistances were performed. It could be concluded that net radiation can be estimated by means of a linear expression with incident global solar radiation depending on the type of vegetation. The variability of aerodynamic resistance ( ra) could be mainly explained by the friction velocity ( u ∗) which on turn depends on the surface roughness length for momentum transport ( z 0m). The experimental data showed that for sparse canopies z 0m being 9% of the mean vegetation height is a doable operational rule for the semi-arid region of São Francisco River basin. The seasonal values of rs for irrigated crops were highly correlated with water vapour pressure deficit. The availability of analytical methods to assess ra and rs makes the one-step Penman-Monteith equation suitable for the computation of actual evapotranspiration and water productivity analyses.

Effects of thinning intensities on transpiration and productivity of 50-year-old Pinus koraeinsis stands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, J.; Kim, T.; Cho, S.; Ryu, D.; Moon, M.; Kim, H. S.

2015-12-01

This study investigated the effects of thinning intensities on stand transpiration and productivity of 50-year-old Korean pine forests for three years. Forest thinning, which remove some fraction of trees from stand, alters the microclimatic conditions such as radiation distribution within canopy, vapor pressure deficit, and amount of available soil water. These changes influence on the tree water use, and related tree growth. Thinning was conducted on March, 2012 with two intensities (Control, Light-thinning, and Heavy-thinning). Transpiration was estimated from sap flux density, which was measured with Granier-type thermal dissipation sensors. Tree diameter growth was measured with dendrometer, and converted to tree productivity using allometric equations developed specifically in our study sites.The climatic conditions showed remarkable differences among three years. In 2012, total precipitation was highest but spring was dry. 2013 was normal year with frequent rain events. In contrast, 2014 was hot and extremely dry. Stand transpiration was initially decreased ca. 20% and 42% on light-thinning and heavy-thinning stand, respectively. In second year, it gradually recovered in both thinning intensities, and was 19% and 37% lower on light-thinning and heavy-thinning stand, respectively. However, the recovery trends were different between two thinning intensities. Transpiration of heavy-thinning stand was recovered slowly than that of light thinning stand. In 2014, heavy-thinning stand transpired ca. 5% more than control plot in early growing season, but severe drought had negative effects that caused reduction of stand transpiration in thinned stand on late growing season. The tree-level productivity was increased initially ca. 24% and 28% on light-thinning and heavy-thinning stand, respectively. During the following growing seasons, this thinning-induced enhancement of productivity was diminished in light-thinning stand (21% in 2013 and 20% in 2014), but was increased in heavy-thinning stand (49% in 2013 and 56% in 2014). In addition, the relationship between tree diameter and relative growth rate showed opposite trends between heavy thinning and light thinning stands. These results indicate that there are differences in biological reactions with thinning intensities.

Application of multiple modelling to hyperthermia estimation: reducing the effects of model mismatch.

PubMed

Potocki, J K; Tharp, H S

1993-01-01

Multiple model estimation is a viable technique for dealing with the spatial perfusion model mismatch associated with hyperthermia dosimetry. Using multiple models, spatial discrimination can be obtained without increasing the number of unknown perfusion zones. Two multiple model estimators based on the extended Kalman filter (EKF) are designed and compared with two EKFs based on single models having greater perfusion zone segmentation. Results given here indicate that multiple modelling is advantageous when the number of thermal sensors is insufficient for convergence of single model estimators having greater perfusion zone segmentation. In situations where sufficient measured outputs exist for greater unknown perfusion parameter estimation, the multiple model estimators and the single model estimators yield equivalent results.

The influence of indoor microclimate on thermal comfort and conservation of artworks: the case study of the cathedral of Matera (South Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cardinale, Tiziana; Rospi, Gianluca; Cardinale, Nicola; Paterino, Lucia; Persia, Ivan

2014-05-01

The Matera Cathedral was built in Apulian-Romanesque style in the thirteenth century on the highest spur of the "Civita" that divides "Sassi" district in two parts. The constructive material is the calcareous stone of the Vaglia, extracted from quarries in the area of Matera. The interior is Baroque and presents several artworks, including: mortars covered with a golden patina, a wooden ceiling, painted canvas and painting frescoes, three minor altars and a major altar of precious white marble, a nativity scene made of local painted limestone. The research had to evaluate the indoor microclimate during and after the restoration works, that also concern the installation of floor heating system to heat the indoor environments. Specifically, we have analyzed the thermal comfort and the effect that the artwork and construction materials inside the Cathedral of Matera have undergone. This evaluation was carried out in two different phases: in the first one we have investigated the state of the art (history of the site, constructive typology and artworks); in the second one we have done a systematic diagnosis and an instrumental one. The analysis were carried out in a qualitative and quantitative way and have allowed us to test indoor microclimatic parameters (air temperature, relative humidity and indoor air velocity), surface temperatures of the envelope and also Fanger's comfort indices (PMV and PPD) according to the UNI EN ISO 7730. The thermal mapping of the wall surface and of the artworks, carried out through thermal imaging camera, and the instrumental measurement campaigns were made both before restoration and after installation of the heating system; in addition measurements were taken with system on and off. The analysis thus made possible to verify that the thermo-hygrometric parameters found, as a result of the recovery operations, meet the limits indicated by the regulations and international studies. In this way, we can affirm that the indoor environment of the Cathedral of Matera is suitable both from the point of view of indoor comfort (both during the summer and the winter season) and of microclimatic parameters that are in the intervals prescribed by the regulations on the conservation of artworks of art (Ministerial Decree of 10/05/2001 dictated by the Ministry for heritage and cultural activities). Moreover the energy performance of the building-plant system was evaluated according to the Italian Norm UNI TS 11300. In particular the summer comfort is guaranteed by the huge thermal inertia of the structure that reduces the internal temperature fluctuation. Instead, the winter comfort is guaranteed by the floor heating system, which through the use of evolving fluid at low temperatures, also ensures higher efficiency and significant energy savings, as well as the protection and conservation of the artistic heritage present in the Cathedral.

Design and Implementation of an Intelligent Cost Estimation Model for Decision Support System Software

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-09-01

following two chapters. 28 V. COCOMO MODEL A. OVERVIEW The COCOMO model which stands for COnstructive COst MOdel was developed by Barry Boehm and is...estimation model which uses an expert system to automate the Intermediate COnstructive Cost Estimation MOdel (COCOMO), developed by Barry W. Boehm and...cost estimation model which uses an expert system to automate the Intermediate COnstructive Cost Estimation MOdel (COCOMO), developed by Barry W

Genetic Patterns of Myrceugenia correifolia, a Rare Species of Fog-Dependent Forests of Mediterranean Chile: Is It a Climatic Relict?

PubMed

Pérez, Fernanda; Hinojosa, Luis F; Peralta, Gioconda; Montenegro, Paz; Irarrázabal, Carla; Cossio, Michel

2017-01-01

Rare species frequently occur in areas with microclimatic conditions that are atypical for their regions, but that were more common in the past, and that probably have operated as climatic refugia for a long time. Myrceugenia correifolia is a rare arboreal species that grows in deep canyons and hilltops of the Coast Range of north-central Chile between 30° and 35°S. In the northern edge of its distribution M. correifolia grows in small patches of fog-dependent forest surrounding by xeric vegetation. These forest formations are thought to be remnants of an ancient and continuous rainforest that according to some authors became fragmented during aridization of the Neogene (Neogene relict) and to others during warm-dry cycles of the Pleistocene (glacial relicts). Here we asked whether the northernmost populations of M. correifolia are Neogene relicts, glacial relicts, or the result of a recent northward colonization. To answer this question we examined genetic diversity and population divergence of M. correifolia using microsatellite markers, tested various competing population history scenarios with an approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) method, and complemented these data with ecological niche modeling (ENM). We detected three genetic clusters with a distinctive latitudinal pattern (north, center, and south) and high levels of differentiation ( F ST = 0.36). Demographic inference supported an admixture event 31 kya between two populations that diverged from an ancient population 139 kya. The admixture time coincides with the beginning of a period of wet conditions in north-central Chile that extended from 33 to 19 kya and was preceded by dry and cold conditions. These results suggest that increased precipitation during glacial periods triggered northward expansion of the range of M. correifolia , with subsequent admixture between populations that remained separated during interglacial periods. Accordingly, ENM models showed that suitable habitats for M. correifolia in north-central Chile were larger and less fragmented during the Last Glacial Maximum than at present, suggesting that northernmost populations of this species are glacial relicts.

Genetic Patterns of Myrceugenia correifolia, a Rare Species of Fog-Dependent Forests of Mediterranean Chile: Is It a Climatic Relict?

PubMed Central

Pérez, Fernanda; Hinojosa, Luis F.; Peralta, Gioconda; Montenegro, Paz; Irarrázabal, Carla; Cossio, Michel

2017-01-01

Rare species frequently occur in areas with microclimatic conditions that are atypical for their regions, but that were more common in the past, and that probably have operated as climatic refugia for a long time. Myrceugenia correifolia is a rare arboreal species that grows in deep canyons and hilltops of the Coast Range of north-central Chile between 30° and 35°S. In the northern edge of its distribution M. correifolia grows in small patches of fog-dependent forest surrounding by xeric vegetation. These forest formations are thought to be remnants of an ancient and continuous rainforest that according to some authors became fragmented during aridization of the Neogene (Neogene relict) and to others during warm-dry cycles of the Pleistocene (glacial relicts). Here we asked whether the northernmost populations of M. correifolia are Neogene relicts, glacial relicts, or the result of a recent northward colonization. To answer this question we examined genetic diversity and population divergence of M. correifolia using microsatellite markers, tested various competing population history scenarios with an approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) method, and complemented these data with ecological niche modeling (ENM). We detected three genetic clusters with a distinctive latitudinal pattern (north, center, and south) and high levels of differentiation (FST = 0.36). Demographic inference supported an admixture event 31 kya between two populations that diverged from an ancient population 139 kya. The admixture time coincides with the beginning of a period of wet conditions in north-central Chile that extended from 33 to 19 kya and was preceded by dry and cold conditions. These results suggest that increased precipitation during glacial periods triggered northward expansion of the range of M. correifolia, with subsequent admixture between populations that remained separated during interglacial periods. Accordingly, ENM models showed that suitable habitats for M. correifolia in north-central Chile were larger and less fragmented during the Last Glacial Maximum than at present, suggesting that northernmost populations of this species are glacial relicts. PMID:28729869

Comparison of modeled estimates of inhalation exposure to aerosols during use of consumer spray products.

PubMed

Park, Jihoon; Yoon, Chungsik; Lee, Kiyoung

2018-05-30

In the field of exposure science, various exposure assessment models have been developed to complement experimental measurements; however, few studies have been published on their validity. This study compares the estimated inhaled aerosol doses of several inhalation exposure models to experimental measurements of aerosols released from consumer spray products, and then compares deposited doses within different parts of the human respiratory tract according to deposition models. Exposure models, including the European Center for Ecotoxicology of Chemicals Targeted Risk Assessment (ECETOC TRA), the Consumer Exposure Model (CEM), SprayExpo, ConsExpo Web and ConsExpo Nano, were used to estimate the inhaled dose under various exposure scenarios, and modeled and experimental estimates were compared. The deposited dose in different respiratory regions was estimated using the International Commission on Radiological Protection model and multiple-path particle dosimetry models under the assumption of polydispersed particles. The modeled estimates of the inhaled doses were accurate in the short term, i.e., within 10 min of the initial spraying, with a differences from experimental estimates ranging from 0 to 73% among the models. However, the estimates for long-term exposure, i.e., exposure times of several hours, deviated significantly from the experimental estimates in the absence of ventilation. The differences between the experimental and modeled estimates of particle number and surface area were constant over time under ventilated conditions. ConsExpo Nano, as a nano-scale model, showed stable estimates of short-term exposure, with a difference from the experimental estimates of less than 60% for all metrics. The deposited particle estimates were similar among the deposition models, particularly in the nanoparticle range for the head airway and alveolar regions. In conclusion, the results showed that the inhalation exposure models tested in this study are suitable for estimating short-term aerosol exposure (within half an hour), but not for estimating long-term exposure. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

A function space approach to smoothing with applications to model error estimation for flexible spacecraft control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rodriguez, G.

1981-01-01

A function space approach to smoothing is used to obtain a set of model error estimates inherent in a reduced-order model. By establishing knowledge of inevitable deficiencies in the truncated model, the error estimates provide a foundation for updating the model and thereby improving system performance. The function space smoothing solution leads to a specification of a method for computation of the model error estimates and development of model error analysis techniques for comparison between actual and estimated errors. The paper summarizes the model error estimation approach as well as an application arising in the area of modeling for spacecraft attitude control.

Joint estimation over multiple individuals improves behavioural state inference from animal movement data.

PubMed

Jonsen, Ian

2016-02-08

State-space models provide a powerful way to scale up inference of movement behaviours from individuals to populations when the inference is made across multiple individuals. Here, I show how a joint estimation approach that assumes individuals share identical movement parameters can lead to improved inference of behavioural states associated with different movement processes. I use simulated movement paths with known behavioural states to compare estimation error between nonhierarchical and joint estimation formulations of an otherwise identical state-space model. Behavioural state estimation error was strongly affected by the degree of similarity between movement patterns characterising the behavioural states, with less error when movements were strongly dissimilar between states. The joint estimation model improved behavioural state estimation relative to the nonhierarchical model for simulated data with heavy-tailed Argos location errors. When applied to Argos telemetry datasets from 10 Weddell seals, the nonhierarchical model estimated highly uncertain behavioural state switching probabilities for most individuals whereas the joint estimation model yielded substantially less uncertainty. The joint estimation model better resolved the behavioural state sequences across all seals. Hierarchical or joint estimation models should be the preferred choice for estimating behavioural states from animal movement data, especially when location data are error-prone.

Model error estimation for distributed systems described by elliptic equations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rodriguez, G.

1983-01-01

A function space approach is used to develop a theory for estimation of the errors inherent in an elliptic partial differential equation model for a distributed parameter system. By establishing knowledge of the inevitable deficiencies in the model, the error estimates provide a foundation for updating the model. The function space solution leads to a specification of a method for computation of the model error estimates and development of model error analysis techniques for comparison between actual and estimated errors. The paper summarizes the model error estimation approach as well as an application arising in the area of modeling for static shape determination of large flexible systems.

Simple, Efficient Estimators of Treatment Effects in Randomized Trials Using Generalized Linear Models to Leverage Baseline Variables

PubMed Central

Rosenblum, Michael; van der Laan, Mark J.

2010-01-01

Models, such as logistic regression and Poisson regression models, are often used to estimate treatment effects in randomized trials. These models leverage information in variables collected before randomization, in order to obtain more precise estimates of treatment effects. However, there is the danger that model misspecification will lead to bias. We show that certain easy to compute, model-based estimators are asymptotically unbiased even when the working model used is arbitrarily misspecified. Furthermore, these estimators are locally efficient. As a special case of our main result, we consider a simple Poisson working model containing only main terms; in this case, we prove the maximum likelihood estimate of the coefficient corresponding to the treatment variable is an asymptotically unbiased estimator of the marginal log rate ratio, even when the working model is arbitrarily misspecified. This is the log-linear analog of ANCOVA for linear models. Our results demonstrate one application of targeted maximum likelihood estimation. PMID:20628636

The Equivalence of Two Methods of Parameter Estimation for the Rasch Model.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Blackwood, Larry G.; Bradley, Edwin L.

1989-01-01

Two methods of estimating parameters in the Rasch model are compared. The equivalence of likelihood estimations from the model of G. J. Mellenbergh and P. Vijn (1981) and from usual unconditional maximum likelihood (UML) estimation is demonstrated. Mellenbergh and Vijn's model is a convenient method of calculating UML estimates. (SLD)

Improving causal inference with a doubly robust estimator that combines propensity score stratification and weighting.

PubMed

Linden, Ariel

2017-08-01

When a randomized controlled trial is not feasible, health researchers typically use observational data and rely on statistical methods to adjust for confounding when estimating treatment effects. These methods generally fall into 3 categories: (1) estimators based on a model for the outcome using conventional regression adjustment; (2) weighted estimators based on the propensity score (ie, a model for the treatment assignment); and (3) "doubly robust" (DR) estimators that model both the outcome and propensity score within the same framework. In this paper, we introduce a new DR estimator that utilizes marginal mean weighting through stratification (MMWS) as the basis for weighted adjustment. This estimator may prove more accurate than treatment effect estimators because MMWS has been shown to be more accurate than other models when the propensity score is misspecified. We therefore compare the performance of this new estimator to other commonly used treatment effects estimators. Monte Carlo simulation is used to compare the DR-MMWS estimator to regression adjustment, 2 weighted estimators based on the propensity score and 2 other DR methods. To assess performance under varied conditions, we vary the level of misspecification of the propensity score model as well as misspecify the outcome model. Overall, DR estimators generally outperform methods that model one or the other components (eg, propensity score or outcome). The DR-MMWS estimator outperforms all other estimators when both the propensity score and outcome models are misspecified and performs equally as well as other DR estimators when only the propensity score is misspecified. Health researchers should consider using DR-MMWS as the principal evaluation strategy in observational studies, as this estimator appears to outperform other estimators in its class. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Bayesian Model Averaging of Artificial Intelligence Models for Hydraulic Conductivity Estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nadiri, A.; Chitsazan, N.; Tsai, F. T.; Asghari Moghaddam, A.

2012-12-01

This research presents a Bayesian artificial intelligence model averaging (BAIMA) method that incorporates multiple artificial intelligence (AI) models to estimate hydraulic conductivity and evaluate estimation uncertainties. Uncertainty in the AI model outputs stems from error in model input as well as non-uniqueness in selecting different AI methods. Using one single AI model tends to bias the estimation and underestimate uncertainty. BAIMA employs Bayesian model averaging (BMA) technique to address the issue of using one single AI model for estimation. BAIMA estimates hydraulic conductivity by averaging the outputs of AI models according to their model weights. In this study, the model weights were determined using the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) that follows the parsimony principle. BAIMA calculates the within-model variances to account for uncertainty propagation from input data to AI model output. Between-model variances are evaluated to account for uncertainty due to model non-uniqueness. We employed Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy logic (TS-FL), artificial neural network (ANN) and neurofuzzy (NF) to estimate hydraulic conductivity for the Tasuj plain aquifer, Iran. BAIMA combined three AI models and produced better fitting than individual models. While NF was expected to be the best AI model owing to its utilization of both TS-FL and ANN models, the NF model is nearly discarded by the parsimony principle. The TS-FL model and the ANN model showed equal importance although their hydraulic conductivity estimates were quite different. This resulted in significant between-model variances that are normally ignored by using one AI model.

Physiological responses at five estimates of critical velocity.

PubMed

Bull, Anthony J; Housh, Terry J; Johnson, Glen O; Rana, Sharon R

2008-04-01

The purpose of this study was to compare critical velocity (CV) estimates from five mathematical models, and to examine the oxygen uptake (VO(2)) and heart rate (HR) responses during treadmill runs at the five estimates of CV. Ten subjects (six males and four females) performed one incremental test to determine maximal oxygen consumption (VO(2max)) and four or five randomly ordered constant-velocity trials on a treadmill for the estimation of CV. Five mathematical models were used to estimate CV for each subject including two linear, two nonlinear, and an exponential model. Up to five randomly ordered runs to exhaustion were performed by each subject at treadmill velocities that corresponded to the five CV estimates, and VO(2) and HR responses were monitored throughout each trial. The 3-parameter, nonlinear (Non-3) model produced CV estimates that were significantly (P < 0.05) less than the other four models. During runs at CV estimates, five subjects did not complete 60 min at the their estimate from the Non-3 model, nine did not complete 60 min at their estimate from the Non-2 model, and no subjects completed 60 min at any estimate from the other three models. The mean HR value (179 +/- 18 beats min(-1), HR(peak)) at the end of runs at CV using the Non-3 model was significantly less than the maximal HR (195 +/- 7 beats min(-1), HR(max)) achieved during the incremental trial to exhaustion. However, mean HR(peak) values from runs at all other CV estimates were not significantly different from HR(max). Furthermore, data indicated that mean HR(peak) values increased during runs at CV estimates from the third minute to the end of exercise for all models, and that these increases in VO(2) (range = 367-458 ml min(-1)) were significantly greater than that typically associated with O(2) drift ( approximately 200 ml min(-1)) for all but the exponential model, indicating a VO(2) slow component associated with CV estimates from four of the five models. However, the mean VO(2) values at the end of exercise during the runs at CV estimates for all five mathematical models were significantly less than the mean VO(2max) value. These results suggest that, in most cases, CV estimated from the five models does not represent a fatigueless task. In addition, the mean CV estimates from the five models varied by 18%, and four of the five mean CV estimates were within the heavy exercise domain. Therefore, CV would not represent the demarcation point between heavy and severe exercise domains.

Comparing Mapped Plot Estimators

Treesearch

Paul C. Van Deusen

2006-01-01

Two alternative derivations of estimators for mean and variance from mapped plots are compared by considering the models that support the estimators and by simulation. It turns out that both models lead to the same estimator for the mean but lead to very different variance estimators. The variance estimators based on the least valid model assumptions are shown to...

Comparisons of Four Methods for Estimating a Dynamic Factor Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zhang, Zhiyong; Hamaker, Ellen L.; Nesselroade, John R.

2008-01-01

Four methods for estimating a dynamic factor model, the direct autoregressive factor score (DAFS) model, are evaluated and compared. The first method estimates the DAFS model using a Kalman filter algorithm based on its state space model representation. The second one employs the maximum likelihood estimation method based on the construction of a…

Global precipitation estimates based on a technique for combining satellite-based estimates, rain gauge analysis, and NWP model precipitation information

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Huffman, George J.; Adler, Robert F.; Rudolf, Bruno; Schneider, Udo; Keehn, Peter R.

1995-01-01

The 'satellite-gauge model' (SGM) technique is described for combining precipitation estimates from microwave satellite data, infrared satellite data, rain gauge analyses, and numerical weather prediction models into improved estimates of global precipitation. Throughout, monthly estimates on a 2.5 degrees x 2.5 degrees lat-long grid are employed. First, a multisatellite product is developed using a combination of low-orbit microwave and geosynchronous-orbit infrared data in the latitude range 40 degrees N - 40 degrees S (the adjusted geosynchronous precipitation index) and low-orbit microwave data alone at higher latitudes. Then the rain gauge analysis is brougth in, weighting each field by its inverse relative error variance to produce a nearly global, observationally based precipitation estimate. To produce a complete global estimate, the numerical model results are used to fill data voids in the combined satellite-gauge estimate. Our sequential approach to combining estimates allows a user to select the multisatellite estimate, the satellite-gauge estimate, or the full SGM estimate (observationally based estimates plus the model information). The primary limitation in the method is imperfections in the estimation of relative error for the individual fields. The SGM results for one year of data (July 1987 to June 1988) show important differences from the individual estimates, including model estimates as well as climatological estimates. In general, the SGM results are drier in the subtropics than the model and climatological results, reflecting the relatively dry microwave estimates that dominate the SGM in oceanic regions.

[Evaluation of estimation of prevalence ratio using bayesian log-binomial regression model].

PubMed

Gao, W L; Lin, H; Liu, X N; Ren, X W; Li, J S; Shen, X P; Zhu, S L

2017-03-10

To evaluate the estimation of prevalence ratio ( PR ) by using bayesian log-binomial regression model and its application, we estimated the PR of medical care-seeking prevalence to caregivers' recognition of risk signs of diarrhea in their infants by using bayesian log-binomial regression model in Openbugs software. The results showed that caregivers' recognition of infant' s risk signs of diarrhea was associated significantly with a 13% increase of medical care-seeking. Meanwhile, we compared the differences in PR 's point estimation and its interval estimation of medical care-seeking prevalence to caregivers' recognition of risk signs of diarrhea and convergence of three models (model 1: not adjusting for the covariates; model 2: adjusting for duration of caregivers' education, model 3: adjusting for distance between village and township and child month-age based on model 2) between bayesian log-binomial regression model and conventional log-binomial regression model. The results showed that all three bayesian log-binomial regression models were convergence and the estimated PRs were 1.130(95 %CI : 1.005-1.265), 1.128(95 %CI : 1.001-1.264) and 1.132(95 %CI : 1.004-1.267), respectively. Conventional log-binomial regression model 1 and model 2 were convergence and their PRs were 1.130(95 % CI : 1.055-1.206) and 1.126(95 % CI : 1.051-1.203), respectively, but the model 3 was misconvergence, so COPY method was used to estimate PR , which was 1.125 (95 %CI : 1.051-1.200). In addition, the point estimation and interval estimation of PRs from three bayesian log-binomial regression models differed slightly from those of PRs from conventional log-binomial regression model, but they had a good consistency in estimating PR . Therefore, bayesian log-binomial regression model can effectively estimate PR with less misconvergence and have more advantages in application compared with conventional log-binomial regression model.

Estimating thermal performance curves from repeated field observations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Childress, Evan; Letcher, Benjamin H.

2017-01-01

Estimating thermal performance of organisms is critical for understanding population distributions and dynamics and predicting responses to climate change. Typically, performance curves are estimated using laboratory studies to isolate temperature effects, but other abiotic and biotic factors influence temperature-performance relationships in nature reducing these models' predictive ability. We present a model for estimating thermal performance curves from repeated field observations that includes environmental and individual variation. We fit the model in a Bayesian framework using MCMC sampling, which allowed for estimation of unobserved latent growth while propagating uncertainty. Fitting the model to simulated data varying in sampling design and parameter values demonstrated that the parameter estimates were accurate, precise, and unbiased. Fitting the model to individual growth data from wild trout revealed high out-of-sample predictive ability relative to laboratory-derived models, which produced more biased predictions for field performance. The field-based estimates of thermal maxima were lower than those based on laboratory studies. Under warming temperature scenarios, field-derived performance models predicted stronger declines in body size than laboratory-derived models, suggesting that laboratory-based models may underestimate climate change effects. The presented model estimates true, realized field performance, avoiding assumptions required for applying laboratory-based models to field performance, which should improve estimates of performance under climate change and advance thermal ecology.

Impact of the time scale of model sensitivity response on coupled model parameter estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Chang; Zhang, Shaoqing; Li, Shan; Liu, Zhengyu

2017-11-01

That a model has sensitivity responses to parameter uncertainties is a key concept in implementing model parameter estimation using filtering theory and methodology. Depending on the nature of associated physics and characteristic variability of the fluid in a coupled system, the response time scales of a model to parameters can be different, from hourly to decadal. Unlike state estimation, where the update frequency is usually linked with observational frequency, the update frequency for parameter estimation must be associated with the time scale of the model sensitivity response to the parameter being estimated. Here, with a simple coupled model, the impact of model sensitivity response time scales on coupled model parameter estimation is studied. The model includes characteristic synoptic to decadal scales by coupling a long-term varying deep ocean with a slow-varying upper ocean forced by a chaotic atmosphere. Results show that, using the update frequency determined by the model sensitivity response time scale, both the reliability and quality of parameter estimation can be improved significantly, and thus the estimated parameters make the model more consistent with the observation. These simple model results provide a guideline for when real observations are used to optimize the parameters in a coupled general circulation model for improving climate analysis and prediction initialization.

Comparative evaluation of urban storm water quality models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vaze, J.; Chiew, Francis H. S.

2003-10-01

The estimation of urban storm water pollutant loads is required for the development of mitigation and management strategies to minimize impacts to receiving environments. Event pollutant loads are typically estimated using either regression equations or "process-based" water quality models. The relative merit of using regression models compared to process-based models is not clear. A modeling study is carried out here to evaluate the comparative ability of the regression equations and process-based water quality models to estimate event diffuse pollutant loads from impervious surfaces. The results indicate that, once calibrated, both the regression equations and the process-based model can estimate event pollutant loads satisfactorily. In fact, the loads estimated using the regression equation as a function of rainfall intensity and runoff rate are better than the loads estimated using the process-based model. Therefore, if only estimates of event loads are required, regression models should be used because they are simpler and require less data compared to process-based models.

The Beta-Geometric Model Applied to Fecundability in a Sample of Married Women

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adekanmbi, D. B.; Bamiduro, T. A.

2006-10-01

The time required to achieve pregnancy among married couples termed fecundability has been proposed to follow a beta-geometric distribution. The accuracy of the method used in estimating the parameters of the model has an implication on the goodness of fit of the model. In this study, the parameters of the model are estimated using the Method of Moments and Newton-Raphson estimation procedure. The goodness of fit of the model was considered, using estimates from the two methods of estimation, as well as the asymptotic relative efficiency of the estimates. A noticeable improvement in the fit of the model to the data on time to conception was observed, when the parameters are estimated by Newton-Raphson procedure, and thereby estimating reasonable expectations of fecundability for married female population in the country.

Estimating the Regional Economic Significance of Airports

DTIC Science & Technology

1992-09-01

following three options for estimating induced impacts: the economic base model , an econometric model , and a regional input-output model . One approach to...limitations, however, the economic base model has been widely used for regional economic analysis. A second approach is to develop an econometric model of...analysis is the principal statistical tool used to estimate the economic relationships. Regional econometric models are capable of estimating a single

A Short Note on Estimating the Testlet Model with Different Estimators in Mplus

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Luo, Yong

2018-01-01

Mplus is a powerful latent variable modeling software program that has become an increasingly popular choice for fitting complex item response theory models. In this short note, we demonstrate that the two-parameter logistic testlet model can be estimated as a constrained bifactor model in Mplus with three estimators encompassing limited- and…

Accounting for imperfect detection of groups and individuals when estimating abundance.

PubMed

Clement, Matthew J; Converse, Sarah J; Royle, J Andrew

2017-09-01

If animals are independently detected during surveys, many methods exist for estimating animal abundance despite detection probabilities <1. Common estimators include double-observer models, distance sampling models and combined double-observer and distance sampling models (known as mark-recapture-distance-sampling models; MRDS). When animals reside in groups, however, the assumption of independent detection is violated. In this case, the standard approach is to account for imperfect detection of groups, while assuming that individuals within groups are detected perfectly. However, this assumption is often unsupported. We introduce an abundance estimator for grouped animals when detection of groups is imperfect and group size may be under-counted, but not over-counted. The estimator combines an MRDS model with an N-mixture model to account for imperfect detection of individuals. The new MRDS-Nmix model requires the same data as an MRDS model (independent detection histories, an estimate of distance to transect, and an estimate of group size), plus a second estimate of group size provided by the second observer. We extend the model to situations in which detection of individuals within groups declines with distance. We simulated 12 data sets and used Bayesian methods to compare the performance of the new MRDS-Nmix model to an MRDS model. Abundance estimates generated by the MRDS-Nmix model exhibited minimal bias and nominal coverage levels. In contrast, MRDS abundance estimates were biased low and exhibited poor coverage. Many species of conservation interest reside in groups and could benefit from an estimator that better accounts for imperfect detection. Furthermore, the ability to relax the assumption of perfect detection of individuals within detected groups may allow surveyors to re-allocate resources toward detection of new groups instead of extensive surveys of known groups. We believe the proposed estimator is feasible because the only additional field data required are a second estimate of group size.

Accounting for imperfect detection of groups and individuals when estimating abundance

USGS Publications Warehouse

Clement, Matthew J.; Converse, Sarah J.; Royle, J. Andrew

2017-01-01

If animals are independently detected during surveys, many methods exist for estimating animal abundance despite detection probabilities <1. Common estimators include double-observer models, distance sampling models and combined double-observer and distance sampling models (known as mark-recapture-distance-sampling models; MRDS). When animals reside in groups, however, the assumption of independent detection is violated. In this case, the standard approach is to account for imperfect detection of groups, while assuming that individuals within groups are detected perfectly. However, this assumption is often unsupported. We introduce an abundance estimator for grouped animals when detection of groups is imperfect and group size may be under-counted, but not over-counted. The estimator combines an MRDS model with an N-mixture model to account for imperfect detection of individuals. The new MRDS-Nmix model requires the same data as an MRDS model (independent detection histories, an estimate of distance to transect, and an estimate of group size), plus a second estimate of group size provided by the second observer. We extend the model to situations in which detection of individuals within groups declines with distance. We simulated 12 data sets and used Bayesian methods to compare the performance of the new MRDS-Nmix model to an MRDS model. Abundance estimates generated by the MRDS-Nmix model exhibited minimal bias and nominal coverage levels. In contrast, MRDS abundance estimates were biased low and exhibited poor coverage. Many species of conservation interest reside in groups and could benefit from an estimator that better accounts for imperfect detection. Furthermore, the ability to relax the assumption of perfect detection of individuals within detected groups may allow surveyors to re-allocate resources toward detection of new groups instead of extensive surveys of known groups. We believe the proposed estimator is feasible because the only additional field data required are a second estimate of group size.

Estimation Methods for One-Parameter Testlet Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jiao, Hong; Wang, Shudong; He, Wei

2013-01-01

This study demonstrated the equivalence between the Rasch testlet model and the three-level one-parameter testlet model and explored the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method for model parameter estimation in WINBUGS. The estimation accuracy from the MCMC method was compared with those from the marginalized maximum likelihood estimation (MMLE)…

Anthropogenic host plant expansion leads a nettle-feeding butterfly out of the forest: consequences for larval survival and developmental plasticity in adult morphology.

PubMed

Merckx, Thomas; Serruys, Mélanie; Van Dyck, Hans

2015-04-01

Recent anthropogenic eutrophication has meant that host plants of nettle-feeding insects became quasi-omnipresent in fertile regions of Western Europe. However, host plant resource quality - in terms of microclimate and nutritional value - may vary considerably between the 'original' forest habitat and 'recent' agricultural habitat. Here, we compared development in both environmental settings using a split-brood design, so as to explore to what extent larval survival and adult morphology in the nettle-feeding butterfly Aglais urticae are influenced by the anthropogenic environment. Nettles along field margins had higher C/N ratios and provided warmer microclimates to larvae. Larvae developed 20% faster and tended to improve their survival rates, on the agricultural land compared to woodland. Our split-brood approach indicated plastic responses within families, but also family effects in the phenotypic responses. Adult males and females had darker wing pigmentation in the drier and warmer agricultural environment, which contrasts with the thermal melanism hypothesis. Developmental plasticity in response to this microclimatically different and more variable habitat was associated with a broader phenotypic parameter space for the species. Both habitat expansion and developmental plasticity are likely contributors to the ecological and evolutionary success of these nettle-feeding insects in anthropogenic environments under high nitrogen load.

[The effects of work in an air-conditioned cabin and stay in a resting chamber on blood pressure and heart rate of operators employed in deep copper mines].

PubMed

Borodulin-Nadzieja, L; Janocha, A; Pietraszkiewicz, T; Salomon, E; Stańda, M

2001-01-01

This paper is part of a wider comparative study of the heart rate, blood pressure, external and core temperature in operators of self-propelled mining machines with and without air-conditioning cabins. Two groups, each of ten operators, characterised by the similar age and duration of employment, stayed for 20 min a specially prepared resting chamber with much more advantageous microclimatic conditions. The results of our examinations (Holter heart rate and continuous blood pressure recordings, external and core temperature measurements) revealed that during the work (particularly during the increased work-load) all parameters recorded were significantly lower in air-conditioning cabins as compared with the group working without air-condition. In both groups, a complete restitution of the heart rate and blood pressure was observed after a 20-min stay in the resting chamber. During the work, a statistically significant increase in the external temperature was found in both groups of operators, whereas the increase in the core temperature was observed only in operators working without air-condition. After a 20-min stay in the resting chamber, a complete return to the normal temperature was noted only in operators working in air-conditioned cabins.

Ecological Catastrophes and Disturbance Relicts: A Case Study from Easter Island

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wynne, J.

2014-12-01

Caves are often considered buffered environments in terms of their ability to sustain near constant microclimatic conditions. However, environments within cave entrances are expected to respond most quickly to changing surface conditions. We cataloged a relict assemblage of at least 10 endemic arthropods likely restricted to caves and occurring primarily within cave entranceways. Of these animals, eight were considered new undescribed species. These endemic arthropods have persisted in Rapa Nui (Easter Island) caves despite a catastrophic ecological shift induced by island-wide deforestation, fire intolerance, and drought, as well as intensive livestock grazing and surface ecosystems dominated by invasive species. We consider these animals to be "disturbance relicts" - species whose distributions are now limited to areas that experienced minimal human disturbance historically. Today, these species represent one-third of the Rapa Nui's known endemic arthropods. Given the island's severely depauperate native fauna, these arthropods should be considered among the highest priority targets for biological conservation. In other regions globally, epigean examples of imperiled disturbance relicts persisting within narrow distributional ranges have been documented. As human activity intensifies, and habitat loss and fragmentation continues worldwide, additional disturbance relicts will be identified. We expect extinction debts, global climate change and interactions with invasive species will challenge the persistence of both hypogean and epigean disturbance relict species.

Reproductive Behavior and Basic Biology of the Oriental Bamboo-Inhabiting Anoplomus rufipes and a Comparison with Frugivorous Dacinae Fruit Flies

PubMed Central

Kovac, Damir

2015-01-01

The reproductive behaviors and mating systems of the fruit-infesting species of the Dacinae tribes Ceratitidini and Dacini are increasingly well understood, while in the non-frugivorous tribe Gastrozonini, data are lacking. In the present study, the reproductive behavior of Anoplomus rufipes from North Thailand was studied in the field, other behaviors also in the laboratory. A. rufipes mated on young bamboo plants growing in areas destroyed by fire. Exudates of extrafloral nectaries produced by the young bamboo plants provided food for the females. Factors affecting the choice of the mating site were favorable microclimatic conditions and food. Courtship behavior was performed on the upper sides of bamboo leaves and included pheromone calling (abdominal elevation, anal pouch eversion, abdominal pleural distention), anal dabbing, looping flights and a specific lofting/body swaying behavior. The males searched individually for females or formed leks containing up to four males. The reproductive behaviors and lek formation of A. rufipes are compared to other Dacinae (Ceratitis, Bactrocera), and their functions are discussed. Hitherto unknown data on the general biology of A. rufipes are also included. A. rufipes larvae infested living bamboo shoots of Cephalostachyum pergracile, and the observed behaviors of the adults included locomotion, grooming, feeding, oral droplet deposition, bubbling and agonistic behavior. PMID:26512699

Multivariate thermo-hygrometric characterisation of the archaeological site of Plaza de l'Almoina (Valencia, Spain) for preventive conservation.

PubMed

Fernández-Navajas, Angel; Merello, Paloma; Beltrán, Pedro; García-Diego, Fernando-Juan

2013-07-29

Preventive conservation requires monitoring and control of the parameters involved in the deterioration process, mainly temperature and relative humidity. It is important to characterise an archaeological site prior to carrying out comparative studies in the future for preventive conservation, either by regular studies to verify whether the conditions are constant, or occasional ones when the boundary conditions are altered. There are numerous covered archaeological sites, but few preventive conservation works that give special attention to the type of cover installed. In particular, there is no background of microclimatic studies in sites that are in the ground and, as in the Plaza de l'Almoina (Valencia, Spain), are buried and partially covered by a transparent roof. A large effect of the transparent cover was found by the sensors located below this area, with substantial increases in temperature and a decrease in the relative humidity during the day. Surrounding zones also have values above the recommended temperature values. On the other hand, the influence of a buried water drainage line near the site is notable, causing an increase in relative humidity levels in the surrounding areas. Multivariate statistical analyses enabled us to characterise the microclimate of the archaeological site, allowing future testing to determine whether the conservation conditions have been altered.

Effects of season on boar semen parameters and antioxidant enzymes in the south subtropical region in Brazil.

PubMed

Argenti, L E; Parmeggiani, B S; Leipnitz, G; Weber, A; Pereira, G R; Bustamante-Filho, I C

2018-02-01

Although boar semen productivity is affected by seasonality, its effects are not equal among different regions which raise concerns regarding the profitability of boar stud farms. Therefore, the goals of this study were (i) to evaluate the seasonal effect on semen production in a commercial boar stud farm located in a subtropical climate region and (ii) to verify whether the activities of superoxide dismutase and glutathione peroxidase in spermatozoa and seminal plasma were associated with seminal traits of fresh and cooled semen. Nine boars were collected twice per season, and routine seminal parameter analyses were performed together with superoxide dismutase and glutathione peroxidase activities in seminal plasma and spermatozoa. Despite a reduction in sperm concentration in spring and summer, most seminal parameters were constant year-round. Temperature-humidity index was higher in the summer compared to spring, autumn and winter (p < .05). Superoxide dismutase activity in spermatozoa was increased in summer compared to autumn and winter (p < .05). The activities of both enzymes in seminal plasma and spermatozoa glutathione peroxidase remained unaltered throughout the seasons. In conclusion, seasonality showed little influence in overall boar seminal parameters despite microclimatic differences among seasons, and spermatozoa collected during summer increased superoxide dismutase activity. © 2018 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Disentangling effects of abiotic factors and biotic interactions on cross-taxon congruence in species turnover patterns of plants, moths and beetles.

PubMed

Duan, Meichun; Liu, Yunhui; Yu, Zhenrong; Baudry, Jacques; Li, Liangtao; Wang, Changliu; Axmacher, Jan C

2016-04-01

High cross-taxon congruence in species diversity patterns is essential for the use of surrogate taxa in biodiversity conservation, but presence and strength of congruence in species turnover patterns, and the relative contributions of abiotic environmental factors and biotic interaction towards this congruence, remain poorly understood. In our study, we used variation partitioning in multiple regressions to quantify cross-taxon congruence in community dissimilarities of vascular plants, geometrid and arciinid moths and carabid beetles, subsequently investigating their respective underpinning by abiotic factors and biotic interactions. Significant cross-taxon congruence observed across all taxon pairs was linked to their similar responses towards elevation change. Changes in the vegetation composition were closely linked to carabid turnover, with vegetation structure and associated microclimatic conditions proposed causes of this link. In contrast, moth assemblages appeared to be dominated by generalist species whose turnover was weakly associated with vegetation changes. Overall, abiotic factors exerted a stronger influence on cross-taxon congruence across our study sites than biotic interactions. The weak congruence in turnover observed particularly between plants and moths highlights the importance of multi-taxon approaches based on groupings of taxa with similar turnovers, rather than the use of single surrogate taxa or environmental proxies, in biodiversity assessments.

Foggy days and dry nights determine crown-level water balance in a seasonal tropical Montane cloud forest.

PubMed

Gotsch, Sybil G; Asbjornsen, Heidi; Holwerda, Friso; Goldsmith, Gregory R; Weintraub, Alexis E; Dawson, Todd E

2014-01-01

The ecophysiology of tropical montane cloud forest (TMCF) trees is influenced by crown-level microclimate factors including regular mist/fog water inputs, and large variations in evaporative demand, which in turn can significantly impact water balance. We investigated the effect of such microclimatic factors on canopy ecophysiology and branch-level water balance in the dry season of a seasonal TMCF in Veracruz, Mexico, by quantifying both water inputs (via foliar uptake, FU) and outputs (day- and night-time transpiration, NT). Measurements of sap flow, stomatal conductance, leaf water potential and pressure-volume relations were obtained in Quercus lanceifolia, a canopy-dominant tree species. Our results indicate that FU occurred 34% of the time and led to the recovery of 9% (24 ± 9.1 L) of all the dry-season water transpired from individual branches. Capacity for FU was independently verified for seven additional common tree species. NT accounted for approximately 17% (46 L) of dry-season water loss. There was a strong correlation between FU and the duration of leaf wetness events (fog and/or rain), as well as between NT and the night-time vapour pressure deficit. Our results show the clear importance of fog and NT for the canopy water relations of Q. lanceifolia. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The effect of consumer pressure and abiotic stress on positive plant interactions are mediated by extreme climatic events.

PubMed

Filazzola, Alessandro; Liczner, Amanda Rae; Westphal, Michael; Lortie, Christopher J

2018-01-01

Environmental extremes resulting from a changing climate can have profound implications for plant interactions in desert communities. Positive interactions can buffer plant communities from abiotic stress and consumer pressure caused by climatic extremes, but limited research has explored this empirically. We tested the hypothesis that the mechanism of shrub facilitation on an annual plant community can change with precipitation extremes in deserts. During years of extreme drought and above-average rainfall in a desert, we measured plant interactions and biomass while manipulating a soil moisture gradient and reducing consumer pressure. Shrubs facilitated the annual plant community at all levels of soil moisture through reductions in microclimatic stress in both years and herbivore protection in the wet year only. Shrub facilitation and the high rainfall year contributed to the dominance of a competitive annual species in the plant community. Precipitation patterns in deserts determine the magnitude and type of facilitation mechanisms. Moreover, shrub facilitation mediates the interspecific competition within the associated annual community between years with different rainfall amounts. Examining multiple drivers during extreme climate events is a challenging area of research, but it is a necessary consideration given forecasts predicting that these events will increase in frequency and magnitude. © 2017 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2017 New Phytologist Trust.

Multivariate Thermo-Hygrometric Characterisation of the Archaeological Site of Plaza de l’Almoina (Valencia, Spain) for Preventive Conservation

PubMed Central

Fernández-Navajas, Ángel; Merello, Paloma; Beltrán, Pedro; García-Diego, Fernando-Juan

2013-01-01

Preventive conservation requires monitoring and control of the parameters involved in the deterioration process, mainly temperature and relative humidity. It is important to characterise an archaeological site prior to carrying out comparative studies in the future for preventive conservation, either by regular studies to verify whether the conditions are constant, or occasional ones when the boundary conditions are altered. There are numerous covered archaeological sites, but few preventive conservation works that give special attention to the type of cover installed. In particular, there is no background of microclimatic studies in sites that are in the ground and, as in the Plaza de l’Almoina (Valencia, Spain), are buried and partially covered by a transparent roof. A large effect of the transparent cover was found by the sensors located below this area, with substantial increases in temperature and a decrease in the relative humidity during the day. Surrounding zones also have values above the recommended temperature values. On the other hand, the influence of a buried water drainage line near the site is notable, causing an increase in relative humidity levels in the surrounding areas. Multivariate statistical analyses enabled us to characterise the microclimate of the archaeological site, allowing future testing to determine whether the conservation conditions have been altered. PMID:23899937

Rainforest air-conditioning: the moderating influence of epiphytes on the microclimate in tropical tree crowns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stuntz, Sabine; Simon, Ulrich; Zotz, Gerhard

2002-05-01

Epiphytes are often assumed to influence the microclimatic conditions of the tree crowns that they inhabit. In order to quantify this notion, we measured the parameters "temperature" (of the substrate surface and the boundary layer of air above it), "evaporative drying rate" and "evapotranspiration" at various locations within tree crowns with differing epiphyte assemblages. The host tree species was Annona glabra, which was either populated by one of three epiphyte species ( Dimerandra emarginata, Tillandsia fasciculata, or Vriesea sanguinolenta) or was epiphyte-free. We found that during the hottest and driest time of day, microsites in the immediate proximity of epiphytes had significantly lower temperatures than epiphyte-bare locations within the same tree crown, even though the latter were also shaded by host tree foliage or branches. Moreover, water loss through evaporative drying at microsites adjacent to epiphytes was almost 20% lower than at exposed microsites. We also found that, over the course of several weeks, the evapotranspiration in tree crowns bearing epiphytes was significantly lower than in trees without epiphytes. Although the influence of epiphytes on temperature extremes and evaporation rates is relatively subtle, their mitigating effect could be of importance for small animals like arthropods inhabiting an environment as harsh and extreme as the tropical forest canopy.

Incidence of acute-onset atrial fibrillation correlates with air temperature. Results of a nine-year survey.

PubMed

Comelli, Ivan; Ferro, Jayme; Lippi, Giuseppe; Comelli, Denis; Sartori, Elisabetta; Cervellin, Gianfranco

2014-09-01

Some diseases, such as renal colic, stroke, and myocardial infarction, correlate with seasonality and microclimatic variations. Although evidence is limited and controversial, a correlation between acute-onset atrial fibrillation (AAF) and seasonality has been previously reported. In order to elucidate the possible correlations between weather and incidence of AAF in a country with a temperate climate, the influence of day-by-day climate changes was analyzed based on the number of visits for AAF (defined as onset of symptoms within 48h) in a large urban Emergency Department (ED) of northern Italy. All the episodes of AAF were retrieved from the hospital's electronic database during a period of 3287days (January 2002 to December 2010). Only the cases whose onset occurred within 48h from the ED visit were selected. The total number of ED visits was 725,812 throughout the observational period. Among these, 3633 AAF cases were observed, 52% of which were males. A slight but significant negative linear correlation was found between the number of AAFs and the daily temperature (R=-0.60; p=0.001). No correlation was found between the number of AAFs and the daily humidity (R=-0.07; p=0.2). Copyright © 2014 Ministry of Health, Saudi Arabia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Seasonal and among-site variation in the occurrence and abundance of fleas on California ground squirrels (Otospermophilus beecheyi).

PubMed

Hubbart, Jason A; Jachowski, David S; Eads, David A

2011-06-01

An improved understanding of the ecology of fleas on California ground squirrels, Otospermophilus beecheyi, is warranted given the role of fleas in the transmission, and perhaps persistence, of the plague-causing bacterium Yersinia pestis. We sampled O. beecheyi on a seasonal basis from three study sites, each representing a different land use type (preserve, pasture, and agriculture) in the San Joaquin Valley, CA. Overall, the abundance of fleas on squirrels was greatest in spring at the preserve site, in summer at the agriculture and pasture sites, and in winter at the pasture site. Hoplopsyllus anomalus, the species most frequently found on squirrels, was most abundant in spring at the preserve site and in summer at the agriculture and pasture sites. Oropsylla montana was most abundant in winter at the pasture site and on adult squirrels. Echidnophaga gallinacea was most abundant in fall on juvenile squirrels at the preserve site. All three flea species we encountered are known to be potential vectors of Y. pestis. Future efforts to predict flea species occurrence and abundance (and plague risk) at sites of concern should consider seasonal microclimatic conditions and the potential influence of human land use practices. © 2011 The Society for Vector Ecology.

Alterations in the health of hibernating bats under pathogen pressure.

PubMed

Bandouchova, Hana; Bartonička, Tomáš; Berkova, Hana; Brichta, Jiri; Kokurewicz, Tomasz; Kovacova, Veronika; Linhart, Petr; Piacek, Vladimir; Pikula, Jiri; Zahradníková, Alexandra; Zukal, Jan

2018-04-17

In underground hibernacula temperate northern hemisphere bats are exposed to Pseudogymnoascus destructans, the fungal agent of white-nose syndrome. While pathological and epidemiological data suggest that Palearctic bats tolerate this infection, we lack knowledge about bat health under pathogen pressure. Here we report blood profiles, along with body mass index (BMI), infection intensity and hibernation temperature, in greater mouse-eared bats (Myotis myotis). We sampled three European hibernacula that differ in geomorphology and microclimatic conditions. Skin lesion counts differed between contralateral wings of a bat, suggesting variable exposure to the fungus. Analysis of blood parameters suggests a threshold of ca. 300 skin lesions on both wings, combined with poor hibernation conditions, may distinguish healthy bats from those with homeostatic disruption. Physiological effects manifested as mild metabolic acidosis, decreased glucose and peripheral blood eosinophilia which were strongly locality-dependent. Hibernating bats displaying blood homeostasis disruption had 2 °C lower body surface temperatures. A shallow BMI loss slope with increasing pathogen load suggested a high degree of infection tolerance. European greater mouse-eared bats generally survive P. destructans invasion, despite some health deterioration at higher infection intensities (dependant on hibernation conditions). Conservation measures should minimise additional stressors to conserve constrained body reserves of bats during hibernation.

Integrated production of warm season grasses and agroforestry for biomass production

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Samson, R.; Omielan, J.; Girouard, P.

1993-12-31

Increased research on C{sub 3} and C{sub 4} perennial biomass crops is generating a significant amount of information on the potential of these crops to produce large quantities of low cost biomass. In many parts of North America it appears that both C{sub 3} and C{sub 4} species are limited by water availability particularly on marginal soils. In much of North America, rainfall is exceeded by evaporation. High transpiration rates by fast growing trees and rainfall interception by the canopy appear to indicate that this can further exacerbate the problem of water availability. C{sub 4} perennial grasses appear to havemore » distinct advantages over C{sub 3} species planted in monoculture systems particularly on marginal soils. C{sub 4} grasses historically predominated over much of the land that is now available for biomass production because of their adaptation to low humidity environments and periods of low soil moisture. The planting of short rotation forestry (SRF) species in an energy agroforestry system is proposed as an alternative production strategy which could potentially alleviate many of the problems associated with SRF monocultures. Energy agroforestry would be complementary to both production of conventional farm crops and C{sub 4} perennial biomass crops because of beneficial microclimatic effects.« less

Essential Oil Composition of Pinus peuce Griseb. Needles and Twigs from Two National Parks of Kosovo.

PubMed

Hajdari, Avni; Mustafa, Behxhet; Nebija, Dashnor; Selimi, Hyrmete; Veselaj, Zeqir; Breznica, Pranvera; Quave, Cassandra Leah; Novak, Johannes

The principal aim of this study was to analyze the chemical composition and qualitative and quantitative variability of essential oils obtained from seven naturally grown populations of the Pinus peuce Grisebach, Pinaceae in Kosovo. Plant materials were collected from three populations in the Sharri National Park and from four other populations in the Bjeshkët e Nemuna National Park, in Kosovo. Essential oils were obtained by steam distillation and analyzed by GC-FID (Gas Chromatography-Flame Ionization Detection) and GC-MS (Gas Chromatography-Mass Spectrometry). The results showed that the yield of essential oils (v/w dry weight) varied depending on the origin of population and the plant organs and ranged from 0.7 to 3.3%. In total, 51 compounds were identified. The main compounds were α-pinene (needles: 21.6-34.9%; twigs: 11.0-24%), β-phellandrene (needles: 4.1-27.7; twigs: 29.0-49.8%), and β-pinene (needles: 10.0-16.1; twigs: 6.9-20.7%). HCA (Hierarchical Cluster Analysis) and PCA (Principal Component Analyses) were used to assess geographical variations in essential oil composition. Statistical analysis showed that the analyzed populations are grouped in three main clusters which seem to reflect microclimatic conditions on the chemical composition of the essential oils.

The potential of biomonitoring of air quality using leaf characteristics of white willow (Salix alba L.).

PubMed

Wuytack, Tatiana; Verheyen, Kris; Wuyts, Karen; Kardel, Fatemeh; Adriaenssens, Sandy; Samson, Roeland

2010-12-01

In this study, we assess the potential of white willow (Salix alba L.) as bioindicator for monitoring of air quality. Therefore, shoot biomass, specific leaf area, stomatal density, stomatal pore surface, and stomatal resistance were assessed from leaves of stem cuttings. The stem cuttings were introduced in two regions in Belgium with a relatively high and a relatively low level of air pollution, i.e., Antwerp city and Zoersel, respectively. In each of these regions, nine sampling points were selected. At each sampling point, three stem cuttings of white willow were planted in potting soil. Shoot biomass and specific leaf area were not significantly different between Antwerp city and Zoersel. Microclimatic differences between the sampling points may have been more important to plant growth than differences in air quality. However, stomatal pore surface and stomatal resistance of white willow were significantly different between Zoersel and Antwerp city. Stomatal pore surface was 20% lower in Antwerp city due to a significant reduction in both stomatal length (-11%) and stomatal width (-14%). Stomatal resistance at the adaxial leaf surface was 17% higher in Antwerp city because of the reduction in stomatal pore surface. Based on these results, we conclude that stomatal characteristics of white willow are potentially useful indicators for air quality.

Spatial and temporal patterns of microclimates at an urban forest edge and their management implications.

PubMed

Li, Yingnan; Kang, Wanmo; Han, Yiwen; Song, Youngkeun

2018-01-23

Fragmented forests generate a variety of forest edges, leading to microclimates in the edge zones that differ from those in the forest interior. Understanding microclimatic variation is an important consideration for managers because it helps when making decisions about how to restrict the extent of edge effects. Thus, our study attempted to characterize the changing microclimate features at an urban forest edge located on Mt. Gwanak, Seoul, South Korea. We examined edge effects on air temperature, relative humidity, soil temperature, soil moisture, and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) during the hottest three consecutive days in August 2016. Results showed that each variable responded differently to the edge effects. This urban forest edge had an effect on temporal changes at a diurnal scale in all microclimate variables, except soil moisture. In addition, all variables except relative humidity were significantly influenced by the edge effect up to 15 m inward from the forest boundary. The relative humidity fluctuated the most and showed the deepest extent of the edge effect. Moreover, the edge widths calculated from the relative humidity and air temperature both peaked in the late afternoon (16:00 h). Our findings provide a reference for forest managers in designing urban forest zones and will contribute to the conservation of fragmented forests in urban areas.

Relation between extinction and assisted colonization of plants in the arctic-alpine and boreal regions.

PubMed

Pykälä, Juha

2017-06-01

Assisted colonization of vascular plants is considered by many ecologists an important tool to preserve biodiversity threatened by climate change. I argue that assisted colonization may have negative consequences in arctic-alpine and boreal regions. The observed slow movement of plants toward the north has been an argument for assisted colonization. However, these range shifts may be slow because for many plants microclimatic warming (ignored by advocates of assisted colonization) has been smaller than macroclimatic warming. Arctic-alpine and boreal plants may have limited possibilities to disperse farther north or to higher elevations. I suggest that arctic-alpine species are more likely to be driven to extinction because of competitive exclusion by southern species than by increasing temperatures. If so, the future existence of arctic-alpine and boreal flora may depend on delaying or preventing the migration of plants toward the north to allow northern species to evolve to survive in a warmer climate. In the arctic-alpine region, preventing the dispersal of trees and shrubs may be the most important method to mitigate the negative effects of climate change. The purported conservation benefits of assisted colonization should not be used to promote the migration of invasive species by forestry. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

Surface modification of a granite building stone in central Rio de Janeiro.

PubMed

Baptista-Neto, José A; Smith, Bernard J; McAllister, John J; Silva, Maria Augusta M; Castanheira, Fabio S

2006-06-01

In order to evaluate environmental controls on the soiling formation and decay of building stones a set of mapping and physical and chemical analyses were carried out on granite from a historical church in the polluted centre of Rio de Janeiro. These techniques highlight the increasing of threatening damage on generally perceived as a durable building material, caused by granular disaggregation and contour scaling in areas close to ground level. Mapping also indicated the formation of black crusts over entire building façades, concentrated on areas sheltered from rain-wash. Analyses demonstrated the influence of marine aerosols, rock and mortar composition and mostly of the atmospheric pollutants on the decay and soiling of the granite. Much of the decay is associated specifically with the presence of halite (NaCl) and gypsum ((CaS04)2H2O). The fact that black, gypsum crusts are able to develop over entire façades in a humid subtropical environment is testimony to the high levels of local pollution, especially particulate deposition. Reduced rainwash, in sheltered micro-environments of narrow, canyon-like streets, overcomes the gypsum tendency to be washed away from buildings façades. These observations further highlight that decay processes are primarily controlled by microclimatic conditions.

Seasonal differences in thermal sensation in the outdoor urban environment of Mediterranean climates - the example of Athens, Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tseliou, Areti; Tsiros, Ioannis X.; Nikolopoulou, Marialena

2017-07-01

Outdoor urban areas are very important for cities and microclimate is a critical parameter in the design process, contributing to thermal comfort which is important for urban developments. The research presented in this paper is part of extensive field surveys conducted in Athens aimed at investigating people's thermal sensation in a Mediterranean city. Based on 2313 questionnaires and microclimatic data the current work focuses on the relative frequencies of people's evaluation of the thermal along with the sun and wind sensations between two seasons trying to identify the seasonal differences in thermal sensation. The impact of basic meteorological factors on thermal discomfort with respect to season are also examined, as well as the use of the outdoor environment. Results show that psychological adaptation is an important contributing factor influencing perception of the thermal environment between seasons. In addition, the thermal sensation votes during the cool months show that individuals are satisfied to a great extend with the thermal environment whereas the combination of high air temperature, strong solar radiation and weak wind lead to thermal discomfort during summertime. As far as the appropriate urban design in the Mediterranean climate is concerned, priority should be given to the warm months of the year.

Grape and environmental mycoflora monitoring in old, traditionally cultivated vineyards on Mount Etna, southern Italy.

PubMed

Oliveri, Cinzia; Bella, Patrizia; Tessitori, Matilde; Catara, Vittoria; La Rosa, Rosa

2017-01-01

Grape contamination by several fungal species occurs during a vineyard's preharvest and harvest. Agronomic management and microclimatic conditions can affect fungi occurrence and epidemiology, thus explaining qualitative differences in mycoflora composition, including the presence of phytopathogenic or mycotoxigenic fungi. In this study a two-year grape, air and soil mycoflora monitoring programme was undertaken in vineyards on Mount Etna (eastern Sicily, Italy). The mycoflora composition was investigated at pea berry and veraison phenological phases from air and soil and at ripening from sample grapes. Mycoflora in air and soil varied according to the phenological stage. In the air samples, penicillia were dominant over aspergilli at the pea berry phase, but their ratio was inverted at early veraison. Black aspergilli (BA) were isolated from the vine environment and grape samples, where BA were represented mainly by Aspergillus niger aggregate, which showed no or low ochratoxin A (OTA) production. Aspergillus carbonarius was either not identified or identified at low frequency, although most of the isolates produced OTA. Monitoring focused on the environmental mycoflora composition and highlighted the good health profile of various Sicilian autochthonous grape cultivars. In addition, data suggest that the lower relative humidity occurring at the highest altitudes reduces BA incidence. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry.

Disentangling effects of abiotic factors and biotic interactions on cross-taxon congruence in species turnover patterns of plants, moths and beetles

PubMed Central

Duan, Meichun; Liu, Yunhui; Yu, Zhenrong; Baudry, Jacques; Li, Liangtao; Wang, Changliu; Axmacher, Jan C.

2016-01-01

High cross-taxon congruence in species diversity patterns is essential for the use of surrogate taxa in biodiversity conservation, but presence and strength of congruence in species turnover patterns, and the relative contributions of abiotic environmental factors and biotic interaction towards this congruence, remain poorly understood. In our study, we used variation partitioning in multiple regressions to quantify cross-taxon congruence in community dissimilarities of vascular plants, geometrid and arciinid moths and carabid beetles, subsequently investigating their respective underpinning by abiotic factors and biotic interactions. Significant cross-taxon congruence observed across all taxon pairs was linked to their similar responses towards elevation change. Changes in the vegetation composition were closely linked to carabid turnover, with vegetation structure and associated microclimatic conditions proposed causes of this link. In contrast, moth assemblages appeared to be dominated by generalist species whose turnover was weakly associated with vegetation changes. Overall, abiotic factors exerted a stronger influence on cross-taxon congruence across our study sites than biotic interactions. The weak congruence in turnover observed particularly between plants and moths highlights the importance of multi-taxon approaches based on groupings of taxa with similar turnovers, rather than the use of single surrogate taxa or environmental proxies, in biodiversity assessments. PMID:27032533

Optimal estimation of large structure model errors. [in Space Shuttle controller design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rodriguez, G.

1979-01-01

In-flight estimation of large structure model errors is usually required as a means of detecting inevitable deficiencies in large structure controller/estimator models. The present paper deals with a least-squares formulation which seeks to minimize a quadratic functional of the model errors. The properties of these error estimates are analyzed. It is shown that an arbitrary model error can be decomposed as the sum of two components that are orthogonal in a suitably defined function space. Relations between true and estimated errors are defined. The estimates are found to be approximations that retain many of the significant dynamics of the true model errors. Current efforts are directed toward application of the analytical results to a reference large structure model.

Comparison of type 2 diabetes prevalence estimates in Saudi Arabia from a validated Markov model against the International Diabetes Federation and other modelling studies

PubMed Central

Al-Quwaidhi, Abdulkareem J.; Pearce, Mark S.; Sobngwi, Eugene; Critchley, Julia A.; O’Flaherty, Martin

2014-01-01

Aims To compare the estimates and projections of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) prevalence in Saudi Arabia from a validated Markov model against other modelling estimates, such as those produced by the International Diabetes Federation (IDF) Diabetes Atlas and the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) project. Methods A discrete-state Markov model was developed and validated that integrates data on population, obesity and smoking prevalence trends in adult Saudis aged ≥25 years to estimate the trends in T2DM prevalence (annually from 1992 to 2022). The model was validated by comparing the age- and sex-specific prevalence estimates against a national survey conducted in 2005. Results Prevalence estimates from this new Markov model were consistent with the 2005 national survey and very similar to the GBD study estimates. Prevalence in men and women in 2000 was estimated by the GBD model respectively at 17.5% and 17.7%, compared to 17.7% and 16.4% in this study. The IDF estimates of the total diabetes prevalence were considerably lower at 16.7% in 2011 and 20.8% in 2030, compared with 29.2% in 2011 and 44.1% in 2022 in this study. Conclusion In contrast to other modelling studies, both the Saudi IMPACT Diabetes Forecast Model and the GBD model directly incorporated the trends in obesity prevalence and/or body mass index (BMI) to inform T2DM prevalence estimates. It appears that such a direct incorporation of obesity trends in modelling studies results in higher estimates of the future prevalence of T2DM, at least in countries where obesity has been rapidly increasing. PMID:24447810

Biophysical Impacts of Tropical Land Transformation from Forest to Oil Palm and Rubber Plantations in Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knohl, Alexander; Meijide, Ana; Fan, Yuanchao; Gunawan, Dodo; Hölscher, Dirk; June, Tania; Niu, Furong; Panferov, Oleg; Ringeler, Andre; Röll, Alexander; Sabajo, Clifton; Tiralla, Nina

2016-04-01

Indonesia currently experiences rapid and large-scale land-use changes resulting in forest loss and the expansion of cash crop plantations such as oil palm and rubber. Such land transformations are associated with changes in surface properties that affect biophysical processes influencing the atmosphere. Yet, the overall effect of such land transformations on the atmosphere at local and regional scale remains unclear. In our study, we combine measurements of microclimate, transpiration via sap-flux, surface energy fluxes via eddy covariance, surface temperature via remote sensing, land surface (CLM) and regional climate modeling (WRF) for Jambi Province in Indonesia. Our microclimatic measurements showed that air temperature within the canopy was on average 0.7-0.8°C higher in monoculture plantations (oil palm and rubber) compared to forest. Remote sensing analysis using MODIS and Landsat revealed a higher canopy surface temperature for oil palm plantations (+1.5°C) compared to forest, but only little differences for rubber plantations. Transpiration (T) and evapotranspiration (ET) as well as the contribution of T to ET of oil palm showed a strong age-dependent increase. The sensible to latent heat flux ratio decreased with age. Overall, rubber plantations showed the lowest transpirations rates (320 mm year-1), oil palm intermediate rates (414 mm year-1), and forest the highest rates (558 mm year-1) indicating substantial differences in water use. Despite the differences in water use and the higher within-canopy and surface temperatures of the plantations compared to the forest, there was only a minor effect of land transformation on the atmosphere at the regional scale (<0.2 °C), irrespectively of the large spatial extend of the transformation. In conclusion, our study shows a strong local scale biophysical impact affecting the conditions at the stand level, which is however mitigated in the atmosphere at the regional level.

Biophysical Impacts of Tropical Land Transformation from Forest to Oil Palm and Rubber Plantations in Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knohl, A.; Meijide, A.; Fan, Y.; Hölscher, D.; June, T.; Niu, F.; Panferov, O.; Ringeler, A.; Röll, A.; Sabajo, C.; Tiralla, N.

2015-12-01

Indonesia currently experiences rapid and large-scale land-use changes resulting in forest loss and the expansion of cash crop plantations such as oil palm and rubber. Such land transformations are associated with changes in surface properties that affect biophysical processes influencing the atmosphere. Yet, the overall effect of such land transformations on the atmosphere at local and regional scale remains unclear. In our study, we combine measurements of microclimate, transpiration via sap-flux, surface energy fluxes via eddy covariance, surface temperature via remote sensing, land surface (CLM) and regional climate modeling (WRF) for Jambi Province in Indonesia. Our microclimatic measurements showed that air temperature within the canopy was on average 0.7-0.8°C higher in monoculture plantations (oil palm and rubber) compared to forest. Remote sensing analysis using MODIS and Landsat revealed a higher canopy surface temperature for oil palm plantations (+1.5°C) compared to forest, but only little differences for rubber plantations. Transpiration (T) and evapotranspiration (ET) as well as the contribution of T to ET of oil palm showed a strong age-dependent increase. The sensible to latent heat flux ratio decreased with age. Overall, rubber plantations showed the lowest transpirations rates (320 mm year-1), oil palm intermediate rates (414 mm year-1), and forest the highest rates (558 mm year-1) indicating substantial differences in water use. Despite the differences in water use and the higher within-canopy and surface temperatures of the plantations compared to the forest, there was only a minor effect of land transformation on the atmosphere at the regional scale (<0.2 °C), irrespectively of the large spatial extend of the transformation. In conclusion, our study shows a strong local scale biophysical impact affecting the conditions at the stand level, which is however mitigated in the atmosphere at the regional level.

Predicting the size and elevation of future mountain forests: Scaling macroclimate to microclimate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cory, S. T.; Smith, W. K.

2017-12-01

Global climate change is predicted to alter continental scale macroclimate and regional mesoclimate. Yet, it is at the microclimate scale that organisms interact with their physiochemical environments. Thus, to predict future changes in the biota such as biodiversity and distribution patterns, a quantitative coupling between macro-, meso-, and microclimatic parameters must be developed. We are evaluating the impact of climate change on the size and elevational distribution of conifer mountain forests by determining the microclimate necessary for new seedling survival at the elevational boundaries of the forest. This initial life stage, only a few centimeters away from the soil surface, appears to be the bottleneck to treeline migration and the expansion or contraction of a conifer mountain forest. For example, survival at the alpine treeline is extremely rare and appears to be limited to facilitated microsites with low sky exposure. Yet, abundant mesoclimate data from standard weather stations have rarely been scaled to the microclimate level. Our research is focusing on an empirical downscaling approach linking microclimate measurements at favorable seedling microsites to the meso- and macro-climate levels. Specifically, mesoclimate values of air temperature, relative humidity, incident sunlight, and wind speed from NOAA NCEI weather stations can be extrapolated to the microsite level that is physiologically relevant for seedling survival. Data will be presented showing a strong correlation between incident sunlight measured at 2-m and seedling microclimate, despite large differences from seedling/microsite temperatures. Our downscaling approach will ultimately enable predictions of microclimate from the much more abundant mesoclimate data available from a variety of sources. Thus, scaling from macro- to meso- to microclimate will be possible, enabling predictions of climate change models to be translated to the microsite level. This linkage between measurement scales will enable a more precise prediction of the effects of climate change on the future extent and elevational distribution of our mountain forests and an accompanying array of critical ecosystem services.

Bioweathering Potential of Cultivable Fungi Associated with Semi-Arid Surface Microhabitats of Mayan Buildings.

PubMed

Ortega-Morales, Benjamín O; Narváez-Zapata, José; Reyes-Estebanez, Manuela; Quintana, Patricia; De la Rosa-García, Susana Del C; Bullen, Heather; Gómez-Cornelio, Sergio; Chan-Bacab, Manuel J

2016-01-01

Soil and rock surfaces support microbial communities involved in mineral weathering processes. Using selective isolation, fungi were obtained from limestone surfaces of Mayan monuments in the semi-arid climate at Yucatan, Mexico. A total of 101 isolates representing 53 different taxa were studied. Common fungi such as Fusarium, Pestalotiopsis, Trichoderma, and Penicillium were associated with surfaces and were, probably derived from airborne spores. In contrast, unusual fungi such as Rosellinia, Annulohypoxylon, and Xylaria were predominantly identified from mycelium particles of biofilm biomass. Simulating oligotrophic conditions, agar amended with CaCO3 was inoculated with fungi to test for carbonate activity. A substantial proportion of fungi, in particular those isolated from mycelium (59%), were capable of solubilizing calcium by means of organic acid release, notably oxalic acid as evidenced by ion chromatography. Contrary to our hypothesis, nutrient level was not a variable influencing the CaCO3 solubilization ability among isolates. Particularly active fungi (Annulohypoxylon stygium, Penicillium oxalicum, and Rosellinia sp.) were selected as models for bioweathering experiments with limestone-containing mesocosms to identify if other mineral phases, in addition to oxalates, were linked to bioweathering processes. Fungal biofilms were seen heavily covering the stone surface, while a biomineralized front was also observed at the stone-biofilm interface, where network of hyphae and mycogenic crystals was observed. X-ray diffraction analysis (XRD) identified calcite as the main phase, along with whewellite and wedellite. In addition, lower levels of citrate were detected by Attenuated Total Reflectance-Fourier-Transform Infrared Spectroscopy (ATR-FTIR). Overall, our results suggest that a diverse fungal community is associated with limestone surfaces insemi-arid climates. A subset of this community is geochemically active, excreting organic acids under quasi-oligotrophic conditions, suggesting that the high metabolic cost of exuding organic acids beneficial under nutrient limitation. Oxalic acid release may deteriorate or stabilize limestone surfaces, depending on microclimatic dynamics.

Evaluation of the Methods of portective Treatment against microbiological damages and prolonged antimicrobic protection of the interior and the equipment of space objects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deshevaya, E.; Novikova, N.; Polycarpov, N.; Poddubko, S.; Shumilina, G.; Bragina, M.; Zarubina, K.; Tverskoy, V.; Akova, M. D.

The researches which have been carried out onboard the orbital complex (? C) MIR, testify that environment of the manned space object may be considered as peculiar ecological niche for development of the microbial community generated by microorganisms of various physiological and taxonomic groups. As a result of vital activity of fungi during OC MIR operation zones of fungi growth on various elements of interior and equipment, cases of destruction of the materials and attributes of corrosion of metals were noted. Existing methods of development of microorganisms on a surface of constructional materials using sanitary treatment of the accessible surfaces with disinfectants, represent the big labour input for the crew. More radical solution of the problem is the development and use of methods of superficial modification of constructional materials and use of methods of superficial modification of constructional materials and treatment of their surface of varnish or paint, resistant to biocontamination and growth of the microorganisms. As a result of the conducted research, the following methods of protection of constructional materials against development of microorganisms were chosen: - fluorination, sylilition, radiating graft polymerization etc., resulting in formation of the functional groups having biocide action; For varnish and paint coverings - coverings on a basis stoichiometrical interpolymeric polyelectrolytic complexes, organosilicone coverings, etc. For testing of the biological effects of samples of the materials subjected to the different methods of surface modification, researches were carried out and experimental models of typical biodestructive processes of the constructional materials are developed considering microclimatic parameters of local zones (the increased temperature and humidity), resistance of the materials to the influence of fungi and increased radiating background influence. Biological testing testifying the efficiency of developed methods and ways of protection of materials on experimental samples of the materials subjected superficial modification is conducted and optimum concentration of reagents and biocides in varnish coverings are determined.

Bioweathering Potential of Cultivable Fungi Associated with Semi-Arid Surface Microhabitats of Mayan Buildings

PubMed Central

Ortega-Morales, Benjamín O.; Narváez-Zapata, José; Reyes-Estebanez, Manuela; Quintana, Patricia; De la Rosa-García, Susana del C.; Bullen, Heather; Gómez-Cornelio, Sergio; Chan-Bacab, Manuel J.

2016-01-01

Soil and rock surfaces support microbial communities involved in mineral weathering processes. Using selective isolation, fungi were obtained from limestone surfaces of Mayan monuments in the semi-arid climate at Yucatan, Mexico. A total of 101 isolates representing 53 different taxa were studied. Common fungi such as Fusarium, Pestalotiopsis, Trichoderma, and Penicillium were associated with surfaces and were, probably derived from airborne spores. In contrast, unusual fungi such as Rosellinia, Annulohypoxylon, and Xylaria were predominantly identified from mycelium particles of biofilm biomass. Simulating oligotrophic conditions, agar amended with CaCO3 was inoculated with fungi to test for carbonate activity. A substantial proportion of fungi, in particular those isolated from mycelium (59%), were capable of solubilizing calcium by means of organic acid release, notably oxalic acid as evidenced by ion chromatography. Contrary to our hypothesis, nutrient level was not a variable influencing the CaCO3 solubilization ability among isolates. Particularly active fungi (Annulohypoxylon stygium, Penicillium oxalicum, and Rosellinia sp.) were selected as models for bioweathering experiments with limestone-containing mesocosms to identify if other mineral phases, in addition to oxalates, were linked to bioweathering processes. Fungal biofilms were seen heavily covering the stone surface, while a biomineralized front was also observed at the stone-biofilm interface, where network of hyphae and mycogenic crystals was observed. X-ray diffraction analysis (XRD) identified calcite as the main phase, along with whewellite and wedellite. In addition, lower levels of citrate were detected by Attenuated Total Reflectance-Fourier-Transform Infrared Spectroscopy (ATR-FTIR). Overall, our results suggest that a diverse fungal community is associated with limestone surfaces insemi-arid climates. A subset of this community is geochemically active, excreting organic acids under quasi-oligotrophic conditions, suggesting that the high metabolic cost of exuding organic acids beneficial under nutrient limitation. Oxalic acid release may deteriorate or stabilize limestone surfaces, depending on microclimatic dynamics. PMID:26941725

Rates of nocturnal transpiration in two evergreen temperate woodland species with differing water-use strategies.

PubMed

Zeppel, Melanie; Tissue, David; Taylor, Daniel; Macinnis-Ng, Catriona; Eamus, Derek

2010-08-01

Nocturnal fluxes may be a significant factor in the annual water budget of forested ecosystems. Here, we assessed sap flow in two co-occurring evergreen species (Eucalyptus parramattensis and Angophora bakeri) in a temperate woodland for 2 years in order to quantify the magnitude of seasonal nocturnal sap flow (E(n)) under different environmental conditions. The two species showed different diurnal water relations, demonstrated by different diurnal curves of stomatal conductance, sap flow and leaf water potential. The relative influence of several microclimatic variables, including wind speed (U), vapour pressure deficit (D), the product of U and D (UD) and soil moisture content, were quantified. D exerted the strongest influence on E(n) (r² = 0.59-0.86), soil moisture content influenced E(n) when D was constant, but U and UD did not generally influence E(n). In both species, cuticular conductance (G(c)) was a small proportion of total leaf conductance (G(s)) and was not a major pathway for E(n). We found that E(n) was primarily a function of transpiration from the canopy rather than refilling of stem storage, with canopy transpiration accounting for 50-70% of nocturnal flows. Mean E(n) was 6-8% of the 24-h flux across seasons (spring, summer and winter), but was up to 19% of the 24-h flux on some days in both species. Despite different daytime strategies in water use of the two species, both species demonstrated low night-time water loss, suggesting similar controls on water loss at night. In order to account for the impact of E(n) on pre-dawn leaf water potential arising from the influence of disequilibria between root zone and leaf water potential, we also developed a simple model to more accurately predict soil water potential (ψ(s)).

Deciduousness in a seasonal tropical forest in western Thailand: interannual and intraspecific variation in timing, duration and environmental cues.

PubMed

Williams, Laura J; Bunyavejchewin, Sarayudh; Baker, Patrick J

2008-03-01

Seasonal tropical forests exhibit a great diversity of leaf exchange patterns. Within these forests variation in the timing and intensity of leaf exchange may occur within and among individual trees and species, as well as from year to year. Understanding what generates this diversity of phenological behaviour requires a mechanistic model that incorporates rate-limiting physiological conditions, environmental cues, and their interactions. In this study we examined long-term patterns of leaf flushing for a large proportion of the hundreds of tree species that co-occur in a seasonal tropical forest community in western Thailand. We used the data to examine community-wide variation in deciduousness and tested competing hypotheses regarding the timing and triggers of leaf flushing in seasonal tropical forests. We developed metrics to quantify the nature of deciduousness (its magnitude, timing and duration) and its variability among survey years and across a range of taxonomic levels. Tree species varied widely in the magnitude, duration, and variability of leaf loss within species and across years. The magnitude of deciduousness ranged from complete crown loss to no crown loss. Among species that lost most of their crown, the duration of deciduousness ranged from 2 to 21 weeks. The duration of deciduousness in the majority of species was considerably shorter than in neotropical forests with similar rainfall periodicity. While the timing of leaf flushing varied among species, most ( approximately 70%) flushed during the dry season. Leaf flushing was associated with changes in photoperiod in some species and the timing of rainfall in other species. However, more than a third of species showed no clear association with either photoperiod or rainfall, despite the considerable length and depth of the dataset. Further progress in resolving the underlying internal and external mechanisms controlling leaf exchange will require targeting these species for detailed physiological and microclimatic studies.

Cost Estimation of Software Development and the Implications for the Program Manager

DTIC Science & Technology

1992-06-01

Software Lifecycle Model (SLIM), the Jensen System-4 model, the Software Productivity, Quality, and Reliability Estimator ( SPQR \\20), the Constructive...function models in current use are the Software Productivity, Quality, and Reliability Estimator ( SPQR /20) and the Software Architecture Sizing and...Estimator ( SPQR /20) was developed by T. Capers Jones of Software Productivity Research, Inc., in 1985. The model is intended to estimate the outcome

Estimating tuberculosis incidence from primary survey data: a mathematical modeling approach.

PubMed

Pandey, S; Chadha, V K; Laxminarayan, R; Arinaminpathy, N

2017-04-01

There is an urgent need for improved estimations of the burden of tuberculosis (TB). To develop a new quantitative method based on mathematical modelling, and to demonstrate its application to TB in India. We developed a simple model of TB transmission dynamics to estimate the annual incidence of TB disease from the annual risk of tuberculous infection and prevalence of smear-positive TB. We first compared model estimates for annual infections per smear-positive TB case using previous empirical estimates from China, Korea and the Philippines. We then applied the model to estimate TB incidence in India, stratified by urban and rural settings. Study model estimates show agreement with previous empirical estimates. Applied to India, the model suggests an annual incidence of smear-positive TB of 89.8 per 100 000 population (95%CI 56.8-156.3). Results show differences in urban and rural TB: while an urban TB case infects more individuals per year, a rural TB case remains infectious for appreciably longer, suggesting the need for interventions tailored to these different settings. Simple models of TB transmission, in conjunction with necessary data, can offer approaches to burden estimation that complement those currently being used.

Estimation of group means when adjusting for covariates in generalized linear models.

PubMed

Qu, Yongming; Luo, Junxiang

2015-01-01

Generalized linear models are commonly used to analyze categorical data such as binary, count, and ordinal outcomes. Adjusting for important prognostic factors or baseline covariates in generalized linear models may improve the estimation efficiency. The model-based mean for a treatment group produced by most software packages estimates the response at the mean covariate, not the mean response for this treatment group for the studied population. Although this is not an issue for linear models, the model-based group mean estimates in generalized linear models could be seriously biased for the true group means. We propose a new method to estimate the group mean consistently with the corresponding variance estimation. Simulation showed the proposed method produces an unbiased estimator for the group means and provided the correct coverage probability. The proposed method was applied to analyze hypoglycemia data from clinical trials in diabetes. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A comparison between a new model and current models for estimating trunk segment inertial parameters.

PubMed

Wicke, Jason; Dumas, Genevieve A; Costigan, Patrick A

2009-01-05

Modeling of the body segments to estimate segment inertial parameters is required in the kinetic analysis of human motion. A new geometric model for the trunk has been developed that uses various cross-sectional shapes to estimate segment volume and adopts a non-uniform density function that is gender-specific. The goal of this study was to test the accuracy of the new model for estimating the trunk's inertial parameters by comparing it to the more current models used in biomechanical research. Trunk inertial parameters estimated from dual X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) were used as the standard. Twenty-five female and 24 male college-aged participants were recruited for the study. Comparisons of the new model to the accepted models were accomplished by determining the error between the models' trunk inertial estimates and that from DXA. Results showed that the new model was more accurate across all inertial estimates than the other models. The new model had errors within 6.0% for both genders, whereas the other models had higher average errors ranging from 10% to over 50% and were much more inconsistent between the genders. In addition, there was little consistency in the level of accuracy for the other models when estimating the different inertial parameters. These results suggest that the new model provides more accurate and consistent trunk inertial estimates than the other models for both female and male college-aged individuals. However, similar studies need to be performed using other populations, such as elderly or individuals from a distinct morphology (e.g. obese). In addition, the effect of using different models on the outcome of kinetic parameters, such as joint moments and forces needs to be assessed.

A Comparison of Three Multivariate Models for Estimating Test Battery Reliability.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wood, Terry M.; Safrit, Margaret J.

1987-01-01

A comparison of three multivariate models (canonical reliability model, maximum generalizability model, canonical correlation model) for estimating test battery reliability indicated that the maximum generalizability model showed the least degree of bias, smallest errors in estimation, and the greatest relative efficiency across all experimental…

Parameter Estimation and Model Selection for Indoor Environments Based on Sparse Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dehbi, Y.; Loch-Dehbi, S.; Plümer, L.

2017-09-01

This paper presents a novel method for the parameter estimation and model selection for the reconstruction of indoor environments based on sparse observations. While most approaches for the reconstruction of indoor models rely on dense observations, we predict scenes of the interior with high accuracy in the absence of indoor measurements. We use a model-based top-down approach and incorporate strong but profound prior knowledge. The latter includes probability density functions for model parameters and sparse observations such as room areas and the building footprint. The floorplan model is characterized by linear and bi-linear relations with discrete and continuous parameters. We focus on the stochastic estimation of model parameters based on a topological model derived by combinatorial reasoning in a first step. A Gauss-Markov model is applied for estimation and simulation of the model parameters. Symmetries are represented and exploited during the estimation process. Background knowledge as well as observations are incorporated in a maximum likelihood estimation and model selection is performed with AIC/BIC. The likelihood is also used for the detection and correction of potential errors in the topological model. Estimation results are presented and discussed.

Ensemble-Based Parameter Estimation in a Coupled General Circulation Model

DOE PAGES

Liu, Y.; Liu, Z.; Zhang, S.; ...

2014-09-10

Parameter estimation provides a potentially powerful approach to reduce model bias for complex climate models. Here, in a twin experiment framework, the authors perform the first parameter estimation in a fully coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model using an ensemble coupled data assimilation system facilitated with parameter estimation. The authors first perform single-parameter estimation and then multiple-parameter estimation. In the case of the single-parameter estimation, the error of the parameter [solar penetration depth (SPD)] is reduced by over 90% after ~40 years of assimilation of the conventional observations of monthly sea surface temperature (SST) and salinity (SSS). The results of multiple-parametermore » estimation are less reliable than those of single-parameter estimation when only the monthly SST and SSS are assimilated. Assimilating additional observations of atmospheric data of temperature and wind improves the reliability of multiple-parameter estimation. The errors of the parameters are reduced by 90% in ~8 years of assimilation. Finally, the improved parameters also improve the model climatology. With the optimized parameters, the bias of the climatology of SST is reduced by ~90%. Altogether, this study suggests the feasibility of ensemble-based parameter estimation in a fully coupled general circulation model.« less

Toward On-line Parameter Estimation of Concentric Tube Robots Using a Mechanics-based Kinematic Model

PubMed Central

Jang, Cheongjae; Ha, Junhyoung; Dupont, Pierre E.; Park, Frank Chongwoo

2017-01-01

Although existing mechanics-based models of concentric tube robots have been experimentally demonstrated to approximate the actual kinematics, determining accurate estimates of model parameters remains difficult due to the complex relationship between the parameters and available measurements. Further, because the mechanics-based models neglect some phenomena like friction, nonlinear elasticity, and cross section deformation, it is also not clear if model error is due to model simplification or to parameter estimation errors. The parameters of the superelastic materials used in these robots can be slowly time-varying, necessitating periodic re-estimation. This paper proposes a method for estimating the mechanics-based model parameters using an extended Kalman filter as a step toward on-line parameter estimation. Our methodology is validated through both simulation and experiments. PMID:28717554

Modeling SMAP Spacecraft Attitude Control Estimation Error Using Signal Generation Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rizvi, Farheen

2016-01-01

Two ground simulation software are used to model the SMAP spacecraft dynamics. The CAST software uses a higher fidelity model than the ADAMS software. The ADAMS software models the spacecraft plant, controller and actuator models, and assumes a perfect sensor and estimator model. In this simulation study, the spacecraft dynamics results from the ADAMS software are used as CAST software is unavailable. The main source of spacecraft dynamics error in the higher fidelity CAST software is due to the estimation error. A signal generation model is developed to capture the effect of this estimation error in the overall spacecraft dynamics. Then, this signal generation model is included in the ADAMS software spacecraft dynamics estimate such that the results are similar to CAST. This signal generation model has similar characteristics mean, variance and power spectral density as the true CAST estimation error. In this way, ADAMS software can still be used while capturing the higher fidelity spacecraft dynamics modeling from CAST software.

Estimating linear temporal trends from aggregated environmental monitoring data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Erickson, Richard A.; Gray, Brian R.; Eager, Eric A.

2017-01-01

Trend estimates are often used as part of environmental monitoring programs. These trends inform managers (e.g., are desired species increasing or undesired species decreasing?). Data collected from environmental monitoring programs is often aggregated (i.e., averaged), which confounds sampling and process variation. State-space models allow sampling variation and process variations to be separated. We used simulated time-series to compare linear trend estimations from three state-space models, a simple linear regression model, and an auto-regressive model. We also compared the performance of these five models to estimate trends from a long term monitoring program. We specifically estimated trends for two species of fish and four species of aquatic vegetation from the Upper Mississippi River system. We found that the simple linear regression had the best performance of all the given models because it was best able to recover parameters and had consistent numerical convergence. Conversely, the simple linear regression did the worst job estimating populations in a given year. The state-space models did not estimate trends well, but estimated population sizes best when the models converged. We found that a simple linear regression performed better than more complex autoregression and state-space models when used to analyze aggregated environmental monitoring data.

Poisson regression models outperform the geometrical model in estimating the peak-to-trough ratio of seasonal variation: a simulation study.

PubMed

Christensen, A L; Lundbye-Christensen, S; Dethlefsen, C

2011-12-01

Several statistical methods of assessing seasonal variation are available. Brookhart and Rothman [3] proposed a second-order moment-based estimator based on the geometrical model derived by Edwards [1], and reported that this estimator is superior in estimating the peak-to-trough ratio of seasonal variation compared with Edwards' estimator with respect to bias and mean squared error. Alternatively, seasonal variation may be modelled using a Poisson regression model, which provides flexibility in modelling the pattern of seasonal variation and adjustments for covariates. Based on a Monte Carlo simulation study three estimators, one based on the geometrical model, and two based on log-linear Poisson regression models, were evaluated in regards to bias and standard deviation (SD). We evaluated the estimators on data simulated according to schemes varying in seasonal variation and presence of a secular trend. All methods and analyses in this paper are available in the R package Peak2Trough[13]. Applying a Poisson regression model resulted in lower absolute bias and SD for data simulated according to the corresponding model assumptions. Poisson regression models had lower bias and SD for data simulated to deviate from the corresponding model assumptions than the geometrical model. This simulation study encourages the use of Poisson regression models in estimating the peak-to-trough ratio of seasonal variation as opposed to the geometrical model. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ionospheric Slant Total Electron Content Analysis Using Global Positioning System Based Estimation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Komjathy, Attila (Inventor); Mannucci, Anthony J. (Inventor); Sparks, Lawrence C. (Inventor)

2017-01-01

A method, system, apparatus, and computer program product provide the ability to analyze ionospheric slant total electron content (TEC) using global navigation satellite systems (GNSS)-based estimation. Slant TEC is estimated for a given set of raypath geometries by fitting historical GNSS data to a specified delay model. The accuracy of the specified delay model is estimated by computing delay estimate residuals and plotting a behavior of the delay estimate residuals. An ionospheric threat model is computed based on the specified delay model. Ionospheric grid delays (IGDs) and grid ionospheric vertical errors (GIVEs) are computed based on the ionospheric threat model.

Gaussian Process Model for Antarctic Surface Mass Balance and Ice Core Site Selection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

White, P. A.; Reese, S.; Christensen, W. F.; Rupper, S.

2017-12-01

Surface mass balance (SMB) is an important factor in the estimation of sea level change, and data are collected to estimate models for prediction of SMB on the Antarctic ice sheet. Using Favier et al.'s (2013) quality-controlled aggregate data set of SMB field measurements, a fully Bayesian spatial model is posed to estimate Antarctic SMB and propose new field measurement locations. Utilizing Nearest-Neighbor Gaussian process (NNGP) models, SMB is estimated over the Antarctic ice sheet. An Antarctic SMB map is rendered using this model and is compared with previous estimates. A prediction uncertainty map is created to identify regions of high SMB uncertainty. The model estimates net SMB to be 2173 Gton yr-1 with 95% credible interval (2021,2331) Gton yr-1. On average, these results suggest lower Antarctic SMB and higher uncertainty than previously purported [Vaughan et al. (1999); Van de Berg et al. (2006); Arthern, Winebrenner and Vaughan (2006); Bromwich et al. (2004); Lenaerts et al. (2012)], even though this model utilizes significantly more observations than previous models. Using the Gaussian process' uncertainty and model parameters, we propose 15 new measurement locations for field study utilizing a maximin space-filling, error-minimizing design; these potential measurements are identied to minimize future estimation uncertainty. Using currently accepted Antarctic mass balance estimates and our SMB estimate, we estimate net mass loss [Shepherd et al. (2012); Jacob et al. (2012)]. Furthermore, we discuss modeling details for both space-time data and combining field measurement data with output from mathematical models using the NNGP framework.

The use of a robust capture-recapture design in small mammal population studies: A field example with Microtus pennsylvanicus

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nichols, James D.; Pollock, Kenneth H.; Hines, James E.

1984-01-01

The robust design of Pollock (1982) was used to estimate parameters of a Maryland M. pennsylvanicus population. Closed model tests provided strong evidence of heterogeneity of capture probability, and model M eta (Otis et al., 1978) was selected as the most appropriate model for estimating population size. The Jolly-Seber model goodness-of-fit test indicated rejection of the model for this data set, and the M eta estimates of population size were all higher than the Jolly-Seber estimates. Both of these results are consistent with the evidence of heterogeneous capture probabilities. The authors thus used M eta estimates of population size, Jolly-Seber estimates of survival rate, and estimates of birth-immigration based on a combination of the population size and survival rate estimates. Advantages of the robust design estimates for certain inference procedures are discussed, and the design is recommended for future small mammal capture-recapture studies directed at estimation.

Data-Adaptive Bias-Reduced Doubly Robust Estimation.

PubMed

Vermeulen, Karel; Vansteelandt, Stijn

2016-05-01

Doubly robust estimators have now been proposed for a variety of target parameters in the causal inference and missing data literature. These consistently estimate the parameter of interest under a semiparametric model when one of two nuisance working models is correctly specified, regardless of which. The recently proposed bias-reduced doubly robust estimation procedure aims to partially retain this robustness in more realistic settings where both working models are misspecified. These so-called bias-reduced doubly robust estimators make use of special (finite-dimensional) nuisance parameter estimators that are designed to locally minimize the squared asymptotic bias of the doubly robust estimator in certain directions of these finite-dimensional nuisance parameters under misspecification of both parametric working models. In this article, we extend this idea to incorporate the use of data-adaptive estimators (infinite-dimensional nuisance parameters), by exploiting the bias reduction estimation principle in the direction of only one nuisance parameter. We additionally provide an asymptotic linearity theorem which gives the influence function of the proposed doubly robust estimator under correct specification of a parametric nuisance working model for the missingness mechanism/propensity score but a possibly misspecified (finite- or infinite-dimensional) outcome working model. Simulation studies confirm the desirable finite-sample performance of the proposed estimators relative to a variety of other doubly robust estimators.

SURE Estimates for a Heteroscedastic Hierarchical Model

PubMed Central

Xie, Xianchao; Kou, S. C.; Brown, Lawrence D.

2014-01-01

Hierarchical models are extensively studied and widely used in statistics and many other scientific areas. They provide an effective tool for combining information from similar resources and achieving partial pooling of inference. Since the seminal work by James and Stein (1961) and Stein (1962), shrinkage estimation has become one major focus for hierarchical models. For the homoscedastic normal model, it is well known that shrinkage estimators, especially the James-Stein estimator, have good risk properties. The heteroscedastic model, though more appropriate for practical applications, is less well studied, and it is unclear what types of shrinkage estimators are superior in terms of the risk. We propose in this paper a class of shrinkage estimators based on Stein’s unbiased estimate of risk (SURE). We study asymptotic properties of various common estimators as the number of means to be estimated grows (p → ∞). We establish the asymptotic optimality property for the SURE estimators. We then extend our construction to create a class of semi-parametric shrinkage estimators and establish corresponding asymptotic optimality results. We emphasize that though the form of our SURE estimators is partially obtained through a normal model at the sampling level, their optimality properties do not heavily depend on such distributional assumptions. We apply the methods to two real data sets and obtain encouraging results. PMID:25301976

Modeling Speed-Accuracy Tradeoff in Adaptive System for Practicing Estimation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nižnan, Juraj

2015-01-01

Estimation is useful in situations where an exact answer is not as important as a quick answer that is good enough. A web-based adaptive system for practicing estimates is currently being developed. We propose a simple model for estimating student's latent skill of estimation. This model combines a continuous measure of correctness and response…

Estimating Traffic Accidents in Turkey Using Differential Evolution Algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akgüngör, Ali Payıdar; Korkmaz, Ersin

2017-06-01

Estimating traffic accidents play a vital role to apply road safety procedures. This study proposes Differential Evolution Algorithm (DEA) models to estimate the number of accidents in Turkey. In the model development, population (P) and the number of vehicles (N) are selected as model parameters. Three model forms, linear, exponential and semi-quadratic models, are developed using DEA with the data covering from 2000 to 2014. Developed models are statistically compared to select the best fit model. The results of the DE models show that the linear model form is suitable to estimate the number of accidents. The statistics of this form is better than other forms in terms of performance criteria which are the Mean Absolute Percentage Errors (MAPE) and the Root Mean Square Errors (RMSE). To investigate the performance of linear DE model for future estimations, a ten-year period from 2015 to 2024 is considered. The results obtained from future estimations reveal the suitability of DE method for road safety applications.

Application of remote sensing in estimating evapotranspiration in the Platte river basin

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Blad, B. L.; Rosenberg, N. J.

1976-01-01

A 'resistance model' and a mass transport model for estimating evapotranspiration (ET) were tested on large fields of naturally subirrigated alfalfa. Both models make use of crop canopy temperature data. Temperature data were obtained with an IR thermometer and with leaf thermocouples. A Bowen ratio-energy balance (BREB) model, adjusted to account for underestimation of ET during periods of strong sensible heat advection, was used as the standard against which the resistance and mass transport models were compared. Daily estimates by the resistance model were within 10% of estimates made by the BREB model. Daily estimates by the mass transport model did not agree quite as well. Performance was good on clear and cloudy days and also during periods of non-advection and strong advection of sensible heat. The performance of the mass transport and resistance models was less satisfactory for estimation of fluxes of latent heat for short term periods. Both models tended to overestimate at low LE fluxes.

CONTROL FUNCTION ASSISTED IPW ESTIMATION WITH A SECONDARY OUTCOME IN CASE-CONTROL STUDIES.

PubMed

Sofer, Tamar; Cornelis, Marilyn C; Kraft, Peter; Tchetgen Tchetgen, Eric J

2017-04-01

Case-control studies are designed towards studying associations between risk factors and a single, primary outcome. Information about additional, secondary outcomes is also collected, but association studies targeting such secondary outcomes should account for the case-control sampling scheme, or otherwise results may be biased. Often, one uses inverse probability weighted (IPW) estimators to estimate population effects in such studies. IPW estimators are robust, as they only require correct specification of the mean regression model of the secondary outcome on covariates, and knowledge of the disease prevalence. However, IPW estimators are inefficient relative to estimators that make additional assumptions about the data generating mechanism. We propose a class of estimators for the effect of risk factors on a secondary outcome in case-control studies that combine IPW with an additional modeling assumption: specification of the disease outcome probability model. We incorporate this model via a mean zero control function. We derive the class of all regular and asymptotically linear estimators corresponding to our modeling assumption, when the secondary outcome mean is modeled using either the identity or the log link. We find the efficient estimator in our class of estimators and show that it reduces to standard IPW when the model for the primary disease outcome is unrestricted, and is more efficient than standard IPW when the model is either parametric or semiparametric.

Dynamically adjustable foot-ground contact model to estimate ground reaction force during walking and running.

PubMed

Jung, Yihwan; Jung, Moonki; Ryu, Jiseon; Yoon, Sukhoon; Park, Sang-Kyoon; Koo, Seungbum

2016-03-01

Human dynamic models have been used to estimate joint kinetics during various activities. Kinetics estimation is in demand in sports and clinical applications where data on external forces, such as the ground reaction force (GRF), are not available. The purpose of this study was to estimate the GRF during gait by utilizing distance- and velocity-dependent force models between the foot and ground in an inverse-dynamics-based optimization. Ten males were tested as they walked at four different speeds on a force plate-embedded treadmill system. The full-GRF model whose foot-ground reaction elements were dynamically adjusted according to vertical displacement and anterior-posterior speed between the foot and ground was implemented in a full-body skeletal model. The model estimated the vertical and shear forces of the GRF from body kinematics. The shear-GRF model with dynamically adjustable shear reaction elements according to the input vertical force was also implemented in the foot of a full-body skeletal model. Shear forces of the GRF were estimated from body kinematics, vertical GRF, and center of pressure. The estimated full GRF had the lowest root mean square (RMS) errors at the slow walking speed (1.0m/s) with 4.2, 1.3, and 5.7% BW for anterior-posterior, medial-lateral, and vertical forces, respectively. The estimated shear forces were not significantly different between the full-GRF and shear-GRF models, but the RMS errors of the estimated knee joint kinetics were significantly lower for the shear-GRF model. Providing COP and vertical GRF with sensors, such as an insole-type pressure mat, can help estimate shear forces of the GRF and increase accuracy for estimation of joint kinetics. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Estimating tuberculosis incidence from primary survey data: a mathematical modeling approach

PubMed Central

Chadha, V. K.; Laxminarayan, R.; Arinaminpathy, N.

2017-01-01

SUMMARY BACKGROUND: There is an urgent need for improved estimations of the burden of tuberculosis (TB). OBJECTIVE: To develop a new quantitative method based on mathematical modelling, and to demonstrate its application to TB in India. DESIGN: We developed a simple model of TB transmission dynamics to estimate the annual incidence of TB disease from the annual risk of tuberculous infection and prevalence of smear-positive TB. We first compared model estimates for annual infections per smear-positive TB case using previous empirical estimates from China, Korea and the Philippines. We then applied the model to estimate TB incidence in India, stratified by urban and rural settings. RESULTS: Study model estimates show agreement with previous empirical estimates. Applied to India, the model suggests an annual incidence of smear-positive TB of 89.8 per 100 000 population (95%CI 56.8–156.3). Results show differences in urban and rural TB: while an urban TB case infects more individuals per year, a rural TB case remains infectious for appreciably longer, suggesting the need for interventions tailored to these different settings. CONCLUSIONS: Simple models of TB transmission, in conjunction with necessary data, can offer approaches to burden estimation that complement those currently being used. PMID:28284250

Effects of model complexity and priors on estimation using sequential importance sampling/resampling for species conservation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dunham, Kylee; Grand, James B.

2016-01-01

We examined the effects of complexity and priors on the accuracy of models used to estimate ecological and observational processes, and to make predictions regarding population size and structure. State-space models are useful for estimating complex, unobservable population processes and making predictions about future populations based on limited data. To better understand the utility of state space models in evaluating population dynamics, we used them in a Bayesian framework and compared the accuracy of models with differing complexity, with and without informative priors using sequential importance sampling/resampling (SISR). Count data were simulated for 25 years using known parameters and observation process for each model. We used kernel smoothing to reduce the effect of particle depletion, which is common when estimating both states and parameters with SISR. Models using informative priors estimated parameter values and population size with greater accuracy than their non-informative counterparts. While the estimates of population size and trend did not suffer greatly in models using non-informative priors, the algorithm was unable to accurately estimate demographic parameters. This model framework provides reasonable estimates of population size when little to no information is available; however, when information on some vital rates is available, SISR can be used to obtain more precise estimates of population size and process. Incorporating model complexity such as that required by structured populations with stage-specific vital rates affects precision and accuracy when estimating latent population variables and predicting population dynamics. These results are important to consider when designing monitoring programs and conservation efforts requiring management of specific population segments.

Processing arctic eddy-flux data using a simple carbon-exchange model embedded in the ensemble Kalman filter.

PubMed

Rastetter, Edward B; Williams, Mathew; Griffin, Kevin L; Kwiatkowski, Bonnie L; Tomasky, Gabrielle; Potosnak, Mark J; Stoy, Paul C; Shaver, Gaius R; Stieglitz, Marc; Hobbie, John E; Kling, George W

2010-07-01

Continuous time-series estimates of net ecosystem carbon exchange (NEE) are routinely made using eddy covariance techniques. Identifying and compensating for errors in the NEE time series can be automated using a signal processing filter like the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). The EnKF compares each measurement in the time series to a model prediction and updates the NEE estimate by weighting the measurement and model prediction relative to a specified measurement error estimate and an estimate of the model-prediction error that is continuously updated based on model predictions of earlier measurements in the time series. Because of the covariance among model variables, the EnKF can also update estimates of variables for which there is no direct measurement. The resulting estimates evolve through time, enabling the EnKF to be used to estimate dynamic variables like changes in leaf phenology. The evolving estimates can also serve as a means to test the embedded model and reconcile persistent deviations between observations and model predictions. We embedded a simple arctic NEE model into the EnKF and filtered data from an eddy covariance tower located in tussock tundra on the northern foothills of the Brooks Range in northern Alaska, USA. The model predicts NEE based only on leaf area, irradiance, and temperature and has been well corroborated for all the major vegetation types in the Low Arctic using chamber-based data. This is the first application of the model to eddy covariance data. We modified the EnKF by adding an adaptive noise estimator that provides a feedback between persistent model data deviations and the noise added to the ensemble of Monte Carlo simulations in the EnKF. We also ran the EnKF with both a specified leaf-area trajectory and with the EnKF sequentially recalibrating leaf-area estimates to compensate for persistent model-data deviations. When used together, adaptive noise estimation and sequential recalibration substantially improved filter performance, but it did not improve performance when used individually. The EnKF estimates of leaf area followed the expected springtime canopy phenology. However, there were also diel fluctuations in the leaf-area estimates; these are a clear indication of a model deficiency possibly related to vapor pressure effects on canopy conductance.

Probability based remaining capacity estimation using data-driven and neural network model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yujie; Yang, Duo; Zhang, Xu; Chen, Zonghai

2016-05-01

Since large numbers of lithium-ion batteries are composed in pack and the batteries are complex electrochemical devices, their monitoring and safety concerns are key issues for the applications of battery technology. An accurate estimation of battery remaining capacity is crucial for optimization of the vehicle control, preventing battery from over-charging and over-discharging and ensuring the safety during its service life. The remaining capacity estimation of a battery includes the estimation of state-of-charge (SOC) and state-of-energy (SOE). In this work, a probability based adaptive estimator is presented to obtain accurate and reliable estimation results for both SOC and SOE. For the SOC estimation, an n ordered RC equivalent circuit model is employed by combining an electrochemical model to obtain more accurate voltage prediction results. For the SOE estimation, a sliding window neural network model is proposed to investigate the relationship between the terminal voltage and the model inputs. To verify the accuracy and robustness of the proposed model and estimation algorithm, experiments under different dynamic operation current profiles are performed on the commercial 1665130-type lithium-ion batteries. The results illustrate that accurate and robust estimation can be obtained by the proposed method.

Estimating sturgeon abundance in the Carolinas using side-scan sonar

USGS Publications Warehouse

Flowers, H. Jared; Hightower, Joseph E.

2015-01-01

Sturgeons (Acipenseridae) are one of the most threatened taxa worldwide, including species in North Carolina and South Carolina. Populations of Atlantic Sturgeon Acipenser oxyrinchus in the Carolinas have been significantly reduced from historical levels by a combination of intense fishing and habitat loss. There is a need for estimates of current abundance, to describe status, and for estimates of historical abundance in order to provide realistic recovery goals. In this study we used N-mixture and distance models with data acquired from side-scan sonar surveys to estimate abundance of sturgeon in six major sturgeon rivers in North Carolina and South Carolina. Estimated abundances of sturgeon greater than 1 m TL in the Carolina distinct population segment (DPS) were 2,031 using the count model and 1,912 via the distance model. The Pee Dee River had the highest overall abundance of any river at 1,944 (count model) or 1,823 (distance model). These estimates do not account for sturgeon less than 1 m TL or occurring in riverine reaches not surveyed or in marine waters. Comparing the two models, the N-mixture model produced similar estimates using less data than the distance model with only a slight reduction of estimated precision.

NASA Software Cost Estimation Model: An Analogy Based Estimation Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hihn, Jairus; Juster, Leora; Menzies, Tim; Mathew, George; Johnson, James

2015-01-01

The cost estimation of software development activities is increasingly critical for large scale integrated projects such as those at DOD and NASA especially as the software systems become larger and more complex. As an example MSL (Mars Scientific Laboratory) developed at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory launched with over 2 million lines of code making it the largest robotic spacecraft ever flown (Based on the size of the software). Software development activities are also notorious for their cost growth, with NASA flight software averaging over 50% cost growth. All across the agency, estimators and analysts are increasingly being tasked to develop reliable cost estimates in support of program planning and execution. While there has been extensive work on improving parametric methods there is very little focus on the use of models based on analogy and clustering algorithms. In this paper we summarize our findings on effort/cost model estimation and model development based on ten years of software effort estimation research using data mining and machine learning methods to develop estimation models based on analogy and clustering. The NASA Software Cost Model performance is evaluated by comparing it to COCOMO II, linear regression, and K-­ nearest neighbor prediction model performance on the same data set.

Model-based estimation for dynamic cardiac studies using ECT.

PubMed

Chiao, P C; Rogers, W L; Clinthorne, N H; Fessler, J A; Hero, A O

1994-01-01

The authors develop a strategy for joint estimation of physiological parameters and myocardial boundaries using ECT (emission computed tomography). They construct an observation model to relate parameters of interest to the projection data and to account for limited ECT system resolution and measurement noise. The authors then use a maximum likelihood (ML) estimator to jointly estimate all the parameters directly from the projection data without reconstruction of intermediate images. They also simulate myocardial perfusion studies based on a simplified heart model to evaluate the performance of the model-based joint ML estimator and compare this performance to the Cramer-Rao lower bound. Finally, the authors discuss model assumptions and potential uses of the joint estimation strategy.

Estimating disease prevalence from two-phase surveys with non-response at the second phase

PubMed Central

Gao, Sujuan; Hui, Siu L.; Hall, Kathleen S.; Hendrie, Hugh C.

2010-01-01

SUMMARY In this paper we compare several methods for estimating population disease prevalence from data collected by two-phase sampling when there is non-response at the second phase. The traditional weighting type estimator requires the missing completely at random assumption and may yield biased estimates if the assumption does not hold. We review two approaches and propose one new approach to adjust for non-response assuming that the non-response depends on a set of covariates collected at the first phase: an adjusted weighting type estimator using estimated response probability from a response model; a modelling type estimator using predicted disease probability from a disease model; and a regression type estimator combining the adjusted weighting type estimator and the modelling type estimator. These estimators are illustrated using data from an Alzheimer’s disease study in two populations. Simulation results are presented to investigate the performances of the proposed estimators under various situations. PMID:10931514

Small area estimation (SAE) model: Case study of poverty in West Java Province

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suhartini, Titin; Sadik, Kusman; Indahwati

2016-02-01

This paper showed the comparative of direct estimation and indirect/Small Area Estimation (SAE) model. Model selection included resolve multicollinearity problem in auxiliary variable, such as choosing only variable non-multicollinearity and implemented principal component (PC). Concern parameters in this paper were the proportion of agricultural venture poor households and agricultural poor households area level in West Java Province. The approach for estimating these parameters could be performed based on direct estimation and SAE. The problem of direct estimation, three area even zero and could not be conducted by directly estimation, because small sample size. The proportion of agricultural venture poor households showed 19.22% and agricultural poor households showed 46.79%. The best model from agricultural venture poor households by choosing only variable non-multicollinearity and the best model from agricultural poor households by implemented PC. The best estimator showed SAE better then direct estimation both of the proportion of agricultural venture poor households and agricultural poor households area level in West Java Province. The solution overcame small sample size and obtained estimation for small area was implemented small area estimation method for evidence higher accuracy and better precision improved direct estimator.

Comparison of statistical models to estimate parasite growth rate in the induced blood stage malaria model.

PubMed

Wockner, Leesa F; Hoffmann, Isabell; O'Rourke, Peter; McCarthy, James S; Marquart, Louise

2017-08-25

The efficacy of vaccines aimed at inhibiting the growth of malaria parasites in the blood can be assessed by comparing the growth rate of parasitaemia in the blood of subjects treated with a test vaccine compared to controls. In studies using induced blood stage malaria (IBSM), a type of controlled human malaria infection, parasite growth rate has been measured using models with the intercept on the y-axis fixed to the inoculum size. A set of statistical models was evaluated to determine an optimal methodology to estimate parasite growth rate in IBSM studies. Parasite growth rates were estimated using data from 40 subjects published in three IBSM studies. Data was fitted using 12 statistical models: log-linear, sine-wave with the period either fixed to 48 h or not fixed; these models were fitted with the intercept either fixed to the inoculum size or not fixed. All models were fitted by individual, and overall by study using a mixed effects model with a random effect for the individual. Log-linear models and sine-wave models, with the period fixed or not fixed, resulted in similar parasite growth rate estimates (within 0.05 log 10 parasites per mL/day). Average parasite growth rate estimates for models fitted by individual with the intercept fixed to the inoculum size were substantially lower by an average of 0.17 log 10 parasites per mL/day (range 0.06-0.24) compared with non-fixed intercept models. Variability of parasite growth rate estimates across the three studies analysed was substantially higher (3.5 times) for fixed-intercept models compared with non-fixed intercept models. The same tendency was observed in models fitted overall by study. Modelling data by individual or overall by study had minimal effect on parasite growth estimates. The analyses presented in this report confirm that fixing the intercept to the inoculum size influences parasite growth estimates. The most appropriate statistical model to estimate the growth rate of blood-stage parasites in IBSM studies appears to be a log-linear model fitted by individual and with the intercept estimated in the log-linear regression. Future studies should use this model to estimate parasite growth rates.

Aeroservoelastic Uncertainty Model Identification from Flight Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brenner, Martin J.

2001-01-01

Uncertainty modeling is a critical element in the estimation of robust stability margins for stability boundary prediction and robust flight control system development. There has been a serious deficiency to date in aeroservoelastic data analysis with attention to uncertainty modeling. Uncertainty can be estimated from flight data using both parametric and nonparametric identification techniques. The model validation problem addressed in this paper is to identify aeroservoelastic models with associated uncertainty structures from a limited amount of controlled excitation inputs over an extensive flight envelope. The challenge to this problem is to update analytical models from flight data estimates while also deriving non-conservative uncertainty descriptions consistent with the flight data. Multisine control surface command inputs and control system feedbacks are used as signals in a wavelet-based modal parameter estimation procedure for model updates. Transfer function estimates are incorporated in a robust minimax estimation scheme to get input-output parameters and error bounds consistent with the data and model structure. Uncertainty estimates derived from the data in this manner provide an appropriate and relevant representation for model development and robust stability analysis. This model-plus-uncertainty identification procedure is applied to aeroservoelastic flight data from the NASA Dryden Flight Research Center F-18 Systems Research Aircraft.

Parameter estimation for a cohesive sediment transport model by assimilating satellite observations in the Hangzhou Bay: Temporal variations and spatial distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Daosheng; Zhang, Jicai; He, Xianqiang; Chu, Dongdong; Lv, Xianqing; Wang, Ya Ping; Yang, Yang; Fan, Daidu; Gao, Shu

2018-01-01

Model parameters in the suspended cohesive sediment transport models are critical for the accurate simulation of suspended sediment concentrations (SSCs). Difficulties in estimating the model parameters still prevent numerical modeling of the sediment transport from achieving a high level of predictability. Based on a three-dimensional cohesive sediment transport model and its adjoint model, the satellite remote sensing data of SSCs during both spring tide and neap tide, retrieved from Geostationary Ocean Color Imager (GOCI), are assimilated to synchronously estimate four spatially and temporally varying parameters in the Hangzhou Bay in China, including settling velocity, resuspension rate, inflow open boundary conditions and initial conditions. After data assimilation, the model performance is significantly improved. Through several sensitivity experiments, the spatial and temporal variation tendencies of the estimated model parameters are verified to be robust and not affected by model settings. The pattern for the variations of the estimated parameters is analyzed and summarized. The temporal variations and spatial distributions of the estimated settling velocity are negatively correlated with current speed, which can be explained using the combination of flocculation process and Stokes' law. The temporal variations and spatial distributions of the estimated resuspension rate are also negatively correlated with current speed, which are related to the grain size of the seabed sediments under different current velocities. Besides, the estimated inflow open boundary conditions reach the local maximum values near the low water slack conditions and the estimated initial conditions are negatively correlated with water depth, which is consistent with the general understanding. The relationships between the estimated parameters and the hydrodynamic fields can be suggestive for improving the parameterization in cohesive sediment transport models.

Applicability of models to estimate traffic noise for urban roads.

PubMed

Melo, Ricardo A; Pimentel, Roberto L; Lacerda, Diego M; Silva, Wekisley M

2015-01-01

Traffic noise is a highly relevant environmental impact in cities. Models to estimate traffic noise, in turn, can be useful tools to guide mitigation measures. In this paper, the applicability of models to estimate noise levels produced by a continuous flow of vehicles on urban roads is investigated. The aim is to identify which models are more appropriate to estimate traffic noise in urban areas since several models available were conceived to estimate noise from highway traffic. First, measurements of traffic noise, vehicle count and speed were carried out in five arterial urban roads of a brazilian city. Together with geometric measurements of width of lanes and distance from noise meter to lanes, these data were input in several models to estimate traffic noise. The predicted noise levels were then compared to the respective measured counterparts for each road investigated. In addition, a chart showing mean differences in noise between estimations and measurements is presented, to evaluate the overall performance of the models. Measured Leq values varied from 69 to 79 dB(A) for traffic flows varying from 1618 to 5220 vehicles/h. Mean noise level differences between estimations and measurements for all urban roads investigated ranged from -3.5 to 5.5 dB(A). According to the results, deficiencies of some models are discussed while other models are identified as applicable to noise estimations on urban roads in a condition of continuous flow. Key issues to apply such models to urban roads are highlighted.

Implementation of the ANNs ensembles in macro-BIM cost estimates of buildings' floor structural frames

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Juszczyk, Michał

2018-04-01

This paper reports some results of the studies on the use of artificial intelligence tools for the purposes of cost estimation based on building information models. A problem of the cost estimates based on the building information models on a macro level supported by the ensembles of artificial neural networks is concisely discussed. In the course of the research a regression model has been built for the purposes of cost estimation of buildings' floor structural frames, as higher level elements. Building information models are supposed to serve as a repository of data used for the purposes of cost estimation. The core of the model is the ensemble of neural networks. The developed model allows the prediction of cost estimates with satisfactory accuracy.

Modeling motor vehicle crashes using Poisson-gamma models: examining the effects of low sample mean values and small sample size on the estimation of the fixed dispersion parameter.

PubMed

Lord, Dominique

2006-07-01

There has been considerable research conducted on the development of statistical models for predicting crashes on highway facilities. Despite numerous advancements made for improving the estimation tools of statistical models, the most common probabilistic structure used for modeling motor vehicle crashes remains the traditional Poisson and Poisson-gamma (or Negative Binomial) distribution; when crash data exhibit over-dispersion, the Poisson-gamma model is usually the model of choice most favored by transportation safety modelers. Crash data collected for safety studies often have the unusual attributes of being characterized by low sample mean values. Studies have shown that the goodness-of-fit of statistical models produced from such datasets can be significantly affected. This issue has been defined as the "low mean problem" (LMP). Despite recent developments on methods to circumvent the LMP and test the goodness-of-fit of models developed using such datasets, no work has so far examined how the LMP affects the fixed dispersion parameter of Poisson-gamma models used for modeling motor vehicle crashes. The dispersion parameter plays an important role in many types of safety studies and should, therefore, be reliably estimated. The primary objective of this research project was to verify whether the LMP affects the estimation of the dispersion parameter and, if it is, to determine the magnitude of the problem. The secondary objective consisted of determining the effects of an unreliably estimated dispersion parameter on common analyses performed in highway safety studies. To accomplish the objectives of the study, a series of Poisson-gamma distributions were simulated using different values describing the mean, the dispersion parameter, and the sample size. Three estimators commonly used by transportation safety modelers for estimating the dispersion parameter of Poisson-gamma models were evaluated: the method of moments, the weighted regression, and the maximum likelihood method. In an attempt to complement the outcome of the simulation study, Poisson-gamma models were fitted to crash data collected in Toronto, Ont. characterized by a low sample mean and small sample size. The study shows that a low sample mean combined with a small sample size can seriously affect the estimation of the dispersion parameter, no matter which estimator is used within the estimation process. The probability the dispersion parameter becomes unreliably estimated increases significantly as the sample mean and sample size decrease. Consequently, the results show that an unreliably estimated dispersion parameter can significantly undermine empirical Bayes (EB) estimates as well as the estimation of confidence intervals for the gamma mean and predicted response. The paper ends with recommendations about minimizing the likelihood of producing Poisson-gamma models with an unreliable dispersion parameter for modeling motor vehicle crashes.

Connections between survey calibration estimators and semiparametric models for incomplete data

PubMed Central

Lumley, Thomas; Shaw, Pamela A.; Dai, James Y.

2012-01-01

Survey calibration (or generalized raking) estimators are a standard approach to the use of auxiliary information in survey sampling, improving on the simple Horvitz–Thompson estimator. In this paper we relate the survey calibration estimators to the semiparametric incomplete-data estimators of Robins and coworkers, and to adjustment for baseline variables in a randomized trial. The development based on calibration estimators explains the ‘estimated weights’ paradox and provides useful heuristics for constructing practical estimators. We present some examples of using calibration to gain precision without making additional modelling assumptions in a variety of regression models. PMID:23833390

Quantifying annual internal effective 137Cesium dose utilizing direct body-burden measurement and ecological dose modeling.

PubMed

Jelin, Benjamin A; Sun, Wenjie; Kravets, Alexandra; Naboka, Maryna; Stepanova, Eugenia I; Vdovenko, Vitaliy Y; Karmaus, Wilfried J; Lichosherstov, Alex; Svendsen, Erik R

2016-11-01

The Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant (CNPP) accident represents one of the most significant civilian releases of 137 Cesium ( 137 Cs, radiocesium) in human history. In the Chernobyl-affected region, radiocesium is considered to be the greatest on-going environmental hazard to human health by radiobiologists and public health scientists. The goal of this study was to characterize dosimetric patterns and predictive factors for whole-body count (WBC)-derived radiocesium internal dose estimations in a CNPP-affected children's cohort, and cross-validate these estimations with a soil-based ecological dose estimation model. WBC data were used to estimate the internal effective dose using the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) 67 dose conversion coefficient for 137 Cs and MONDAL Version 3.01 software. Geometric mean dose estimates from each model were compared utilizing paired t-tests and intra-class correlation coefficients. Additionally, we developed predictive models for WBC-derived dose estimation in order to determine the appropriateness of EMARC to estimate dose for this population. The two WBC-derived dose predictive models identified 137 Cs soil concentration (P<0.0001) as the strongest predictor of annual internal effective dose from radiocesium validating the use of the soil-based EMARC model. The geometric mean internal effective dose estimate of the EMARC model (0.183 mSv/y) was the highest followed by the ICRP 67 dose estimates (0.165 mSv/y) and the MONDAL model estimates (0.149 mSv/y). All three models yielded significantly different geometric mean dose (P<0.05) estimates for this cohort when stratified by sex, age at time of exam and season of exam, except for the mean MONDAL and EMARC estimates for 15- and 16-year olds and mean ICRP and MONDAL estimates for children examined in Winter. Further prospective and retrospective radio-epidemiological studies utilizing refined WBC measurements and ecological model dose estimations, in conjunction with findings from animal toxicological studies, should help elucidate possible deterministic radiogenic health effects associated with chronic low-dose internal exposure to 137 Cs.

Make the most of your samples: Bayes factor estimators for high-dimensional models of sequence evolution.

PubMed

Baele, Guy; Lemey, Philippe; Vansteelandt, Stijn

2013-03-06

Accurate model comparison requires extensive computation times, especially for parameter-rich models of sequence evolution. In the Bayesian framework, model selection is typically performed through the evaluation of a Bayes factor, the ratio of two marginal likelihoods (one for each model). Recently introduced techniques to estimate (log) marginal likelihoods, such as path sampling and stepping-stone sampling, offer increased accuracy over the traditional harmonic mean estimator at an increased computational cost. Most often, each model's marginal likelihood will be estimated individually, which leads the resulting Bayes factor to suffer from errors associated with each of these independent estimation processes. We here assess the original 'model-switch' path sampling approach for direct Bayes factor estimation in phylogenetics, as well as an extension that uses more samples, to construct a direct path between two competing models, thereby eliminating the need to calculate each model's marginal likelihood independently. Further, we provide a competing Bayes factor estimator using an adaptation of the recently introduced stepping-stone sampling algorithm and set out to determine appropriate settings for accurately calculating such Bayes factors, with context-dependent evolutionary models as an example. While we show that modest efforts are required to roughly identify the increase in model fit, only drastically increased computation times ensure the accuracy needed to detect more subtle details of the evolutionary process. We show that our adaptation of stepping-stone sampling for direct Bayes factor calculation outperforms the original path sampling approach as well as an extension that exploits more samples. Our proposed approach for Bayes factor estimation also has preferable statistical properties over the use of individual marginal likelihood estimates for both models under comparison. Assuming a sigmoid function to determine the path between two competing models, we provide evidence that a single well-chosen sigmoid shape value requires less computational efforts in order to approximate the true value of the (log) Bayes factor compared to the original approach. We show that the (log) Bayes factors calculated using path sampling and stepping-stone sampling differ drastically from those estimated using either of the harmonic mean estimators, supporting earlier claims that the latter systematically overestimate the performance of high-dimensional models, which we show can lead to erroneous conclusions. Based on our results, we argue that highly accurate estimation of differences in model fit for high-dimensional models requires much more computational effort than suggested in recent studies on marginal likelihood estimation.

Robust time and frequency domain estimation methods in adaptive control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lamaire, Richard Orville

1987-01-01

A robust identification method was developed for use in an adaptive control system. The type of estimator is called the robust estimator, since it is robust to the effects of both unmodeled dynamics and an unmeasurable disturbance. The development of the robust estimator was motivated by a need to provide guarantees in the identification part of an adaptive controller. To enable the design of a robust control system, a nominal model as well as a frequency-domain bounding function on the modeling uncertainty associated with this nominal model must be provided. Two estimation methods are presented for finding parameter estimates, and, hence, a nominal model. One of these methods is based on the well developed field of time-domain parameter estimation. In a second method of finding parameter estimates, a type of weighted least-squares fitting to a frequency-domain estimated model is used. The frequency-domain estimator is shown to perform better, in general, than the time-domain parameter estimator. In addition, a methodology for finding a frequency-domain bounding function on the disturbance is used to compute a frequency-domain bounding function on the additive modeling error due to the effects of the disturbance and the use of finite-length data. The performance of the robust estimator in both open-loop and closed-loop situations is examined through the use of simulations.

Temporal rainfall estimation using input data reduction and model inversion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wright, A. J.; Vrugt, J. A.; Walker, J. P.; Pauwels, V. R. N.

2016-12-01

Floods are devastating natural hazards. To provide accurate, precise and timely flood forecasts there is a need to understand the uncertainties associated with temporal rainfall and model parameters. The estimation of temporal rainfall and model parameter distributions from streamflow observations in complex dynamic catchments adds skill to current areal rainfall estimation methods, allows for the uncertainty of rainfall input to be considered when estimating model parameters and provides the ability to estimate rainfall from poorly gauged catchments. Current methods to estimate temporal rainfall distributions from streamflow are unable to adequately explain and invert complex non-linear hydrologic systems. This study uses the Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT) to reduce rainfall dimensionality for the catchment of Warwick, Queensland, Australia. The reduction of rainfall to DWT coefficients allows the input rainfall time series to be simultaneously estimated along with model parameters. The estimation process is conducted using multi-chain Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation with the DREAMZS algorithm. The use of a likelihood function that considers both rainfall and streamflow error allows for model parameter and temporal rainfall distributions to be estimated. Estimation of the wavelet approximation coefficients of lower order decomposition structures was able to estimate the most realistic temporal rainfall distributions. These rainfall estimates were all able to simulate streamflow that was superior to the results of a traditional calibration approach. It is shown that the choice of wavelet has a considerable impact on the robustness of the inversion. The results demonstrate that streamflow data contains sufficient information to estimate temporal rainfall and model parameter distributions. The extent and variance of rainfall time series that are able to simulate streamflow that is superior to that simulated by a traditional calibration approach is a demonstration of equifinality. The use of a likelihood function that considers both rainfall and streamflow error combined with the use of the DWT as a model data reduction technique allows the joint inference of hydrologic model parameters along with rainfall.

The Mapping Model: A Cognitive Theory of Quantitative Estimation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

von Helversen, Bettina; Rieskamp, Jorg

2008-01-01

How do people make quantitative estimations, such as estimating a car's selling price? Traditionally, linear-regression-type models have been used to answer this question. These models assume that people weight and integrate all information available to estimate a criterion. The authors propose an alternative cognitive theory for quantitative…

Simultaneous treatment of unspecified heteroskedastic model error distribution and mismeasured covariates for restricted moment models.

PubMed

Garcia, Tanya P; Ma, Yanyuan

2017-10-01

We develop consistent and efficient estimation of parameters in general regression models with mismeasured covariates. We assume the model error and covariate distributions are unspecified, and the measurement error distribution is a general parametric distribution with unknown variance-covariance. We construct root- n consistent, asymptotically normal and locally efficient estimators using the semiparametric efficient score. We do not estimate any unknown distribution or model error heteroskedasticity. Instead, we form the estimator under possibly incorrect working distribution models for the model error, error-prone covariate, or both. Empirical results demonstrate robustness to different incorrect working models in homoscedastic and heteroskedastic models with error-prone covariates.

Hierarchical Bayesian Model Averaging for Non-Uniqueness and Uncertainty Analysis of Artificial Neural Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fijani, E.; Chitsazan, N.; Nadiri, A.; Tsai, F. T.; Asghari Moghaddam, A.

2012-12-01

Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) have been widely used to estimate concentration of chemicals in groundwater systems. However, estimation uncertainty is rarely discussed in the literature. Uncertainty in ANN output stems from three sources: ANN inputs, ANN parameters (weights and biases), and ANN structures. Uncertainty in ANN inputs may come from input data selection and/or input data error. ANN parameters are naturally uncertain because they are maximum-likelihood estimated. ANN structure is also uncertain because there is no unique ANN model given a specific case. Therefore, multiple plausible AI models are generally resulted for a study. One might ask why good models have to be ignored in favor of the best model in traditional estimation. What is the ANN estimation variance? How do the variances from different ANN models accumulate to the total estimation variance? To answer these questions we propose a Hierarchical Bayesian Model Averaging (HBMA) framework. Instead of choosing one ANN model (the best ANN model) for estimation, HBMA averages outputs of all plausible ANN models. The model weights are based on the evidence of data. Therefore, the HBMA avoids overconfidence on the single best ANN model. In addition, HBMA is able to analyze uncertainty propagation through aggregation of ANN models in a hierarchy framework. This method is applied for estimation of fluoride concentration in the Poldasht plain and the Bazargan plain in Iran. Unusually high fluoride concentration in the Poldasht and Bazargan plains has caused negative effects on the public health. Management of this anomaly requires estimation of fluoride concentration distribution in the area. The results show that the HBMA provides a knowledge-decision-based framework that facilitates analyzing and quantifying ANN estimation uncertainties from different sources. In addition HBMA allows comparative evaluation of the realizations for each source of uncertainty by segregating the uncertainty sources in a hierarchical framework. Fluoride concentration estimation using the HBMA method shows better agreement to the observation data in the test step because they are not based on a single model with a non-dominate weights.

The use of baseline measurements and geophysical models for the estimation of crustal deformations and the terrestrial reference system. Ph.D. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bock, Y.

1982-01-01

Four possible estimators are investigated for the monitoring of crustal deformations from a combination of repeated baseline length measurements and adopted geophysical models, particularly an absolute motion plate model. The first estimator is an extension of the familiar free adjustment. The next two are Bayesian type estimators, one weak and one strong. Finally, a weighted constraint estimator is presented. The properties of these four estimators are outlined and their physical interpretations discussed. A series of simulations are performed to test the four estimators and to determine whether or not to incorporate a plate model for the monitoring of deformations. The application of these estimations to the maintenance of a new conventional terrestrial reference system is discussed.

Accounting for Age Uncertainty in Growth Modeling, the Case Study of Yellowfin Tuna (Thunnus albacares) of the Indian Ocean

PubMed Central

Dortel, Emmanuelle; Massiot-Granier, Félix; Rivot, Etienne; Million, Julien; Hallier, Jean-Pierre; Morize, Eric; Munaron, Jean-Marie; Bousquet, Nicolas; Chassot, Emmanuel

2013-01-01

Age estimates, typically determined by counting periodic growth increments in calcified structures of vertebrates, are the basis of population dynamics models used for managing exploited or threatened species. In fisheries research, the use of otolith growth rings as an indicator of fish age has increased considerably in recent decades. However, otolith readings include various sources of uncertainty. Current ageing methods, which converts an average count of rings into age, only provide periodic age estimates in which the range of uncertainty is fully ignored. In this study, we describe a hierarchical model for estimating individual ages from repeated otolith readings. The model was developed within a Bayesian framework to explicitly represent the sources of uncertainty associated with age estimation, to allow for individual variations and to include knowledge on parameters from expertise. The performance of the proposed model was examined through simulations, and then it was coupled to a two-stanza somatic growth model to evaluate the impact of the age estimation method on the age composition of commercial fisheries catches. We illustrate our approach using the saggital otoliths of yellowfin tuna of the Indian Ocean collected through large-scale mark-recapture experiments. The simulation performance suggested that the ageing error model was able to estimate the ageing biases and provide accurate age estimates, regardless of the age of the fish. Coupled with the growth model, this approach appeared suitable for modeling the growth of Indian Ocean yellowfin and is consistent with findings of previous studies. The simulations showed that the choice of the ageing method can strongly affect growth estimates with subsequent implications for age-structured data used as inputs for population models. Finally, our modeling approach revealed particularly useful to reflect uncertainty around age estimates into the process of growth estimation and it can be applied to any study relying on age estimation. PMID:23637773

Current estimates of the cure fraction: a feasibility study of statistical cure for breast and colorectal cancer.

PubMed

Stedman, Margaret R; Feuer, Eric J; Mariotto, Angela B

2014-11-01

The probability of cure is a long-term prognostic measure of cancer survival. Estimates of the cure fraction, the proportion of patients "cured" of the disease, are based on extrapolating survival models beyond the range of data. The objective of this work is to evaluate the sensitivity of cure fraction estimates to model choice and study design. Data were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)-9 registries to construct a cohort of breast and colorectal cancer patients diagnosed from 1975 to 1985. In a sensitivity analysis, cure fraction estimates are compared from different study designs with short- and long-term follow-up. Methods tested include: cause-specific and relative survival, parametric mixture, and flexible models. In a separate analysis, estimates are projected for 2008 diagnoses using study designs including the full cohort (1975-2008 diagnoses) and restricted to recent diagnoses (1998-2008) with follow-up to 2009. We show that flexible models often provide higher estimates of the cure fraction compared to parametric mixture models. Log normal models generate lower estimates than Weibull parametric models. In general, 12 years is enough follow-up time to estimate the cure fraction for regional and distant stage colorectal cancer but not for breast cancer. 2008 colorectal cure projections show a 15% increase in the cure fraction since 1985. Estimates of the cure fraction are model and study design dependent. It is best to compare results from multiple models and examine model fit to determine the reliability of the estimate. Early-stage cancers are sensitive to survival type and follow-up time because of their longer survival. More flexible models are susceptible to slight fluctuations in the shape of the survival curve which can influence the stability of the estimate; however, stability may be improved by lengthening follow-up and restricting the cohort to reduce heterogeneity in the data. Published by Oxford University Press 2014.

Estimation of rates-across-sites distributions in phylogenetic substitution models.

PubMed

Susko, Edward; Field, Chris; Blouin, Christian; Roger, Andrew J

2003-10-01

Previous work has shown that it is often essential to account for the variation in rates at different sites in phylogenetic models in order to avoid phylogenetic artifacts such as long branch attraction. In most current models, the gamma distribution is used for the rates-across-sites distributions and is implemented as an equal-probability discrete gamma. In this article, we introduce discrete distribution estimates with large numbers of equally spaced rate categories allowing us to investigate the appropriateness of the gamma model. With large numbers of rate categories, these discrete estimates are flexible enough to approximate the shape of almost any distribution. Likelihood ratio statistical tests and a nonparametric bootstrap confidence-bound estimation procedure based on the discrete estimates are presented that can be used to test the fit of a parametric family. We applied the methodology to several different protein data sets, and found that although the gamma model often provides a good parametric model for this type of data, rate estimates from an equal-probability discrete gamma model with a small number of categories will tend to underestimate the largest rates. In cases when the gamma model assumption is in doubt, rate estimates coming from the discrete rate distribution estimate with a large number of rate categories provide a robust alternative to gamma estimates. An alternative implementation of the gamma distribution is proposed that, for equal numbers of rate categories, is computationally more efficient during optimization than the standard gamma implementation and can provide more accurate estimates of site rates.

Impact of transport model errors on the global and regional methane emissions estimated by inverse modelling

DOE PAGES

Locatelli, R.; Bousquet, P.; Chevallier, F.; ...

2013-10-08

A modelling experiment has been conceived to assess the impact of transport model errors on methane emissions estimated in an atmospheric inversion system. Synthetic methane observations, obtained from 10 different model outputs from the international TransCom-CH4 model inter-comparison exercise, are combined with a prior scenario of methane emissions and sinks, and integrated into the three-component PYVAR-LMDZ-SACS (PYthon VARiational-Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique model with Zooming capability-Simplified Atmospheric Chemistry System) inversion system to produce 10 different methane emission estimates at the global scale for the year 2005. The same methane sinks, emissions and initial conditions have been applied to produce the 10more » synthetic observation datasets. The same inversion set-up (statistical errors, prior emissions, inverse procedure) is then applied to derive flux estimates by inverse modelling. Consequently, only differences in the modelling of atmospheric transport may cause differences in the estimated fluxes. Here in our framework, we show that transport model errors lead to a discrepancy of 27 Tg yr -1 at the global scale, representing 5% of total methane emissions. At continental and annual scales, transport model errors are proportionally larger than at the global scale, with errors ranging from 36 Tg yr -1 in North America to 7 Tg yr -1 in Boreal Eurasia (from 23 to 48%, respectively). At the model grid-scale, the spread of inverse estimates can reach 150% of the prior flux. Therefore, transport model errors contribute significantly to overall uncertainties in emission estimates by inverse modelling, especially when small spatial scales are examined. Sensitivity tests have been carried out to estimate the impact of the measurement network and the advantage of higher horizontal resolution in transport models. The large differences found between methane flux estimates inferred in these different configurations highly question the consistency of transport model errors in current inverse systems.« less

Re-evaluating neonatal-age models for ungulates: Does model choice affect survival estimates?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grovenburg, Troy W.; Monteith, Kevin L.; Jacques, Christopher N.; Klaver, Robert W.; DePerno, Christopher S.; Brinkman, Todd J.; Monteith, Kyle B.; Gilbert, Sophie L.; Smith, Joshua B.; Bleich, Vernon C.; Swanson, Christopher C.; Jenks, Jonathan A.

2014-01-01

New-hoof growth is regarded as the most reliable metric for predicting age of newborn ungulates, but variation in estimated age among hoof-growth equations that have been developed may affect estimates of survival in staggered-entry models. We used known-age newborns to evaluate variation in age estimates among existing hoof-growth equations and to determine the consequences of that variation on survival estimates. During 2001–2009, we captured and radiocollared 174 newborn (≤24-hrs old) ungulates: 76 white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in Minnesota and South Dakota, 61 mule deer (O. hemionus) in California, and 37 pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) in South Dakota. Estimated age of known-age newborns differed among hoof-growth models and varied by >15 days for white-tailed deer, >20 days for mule deer, and >10 days for pronghorn. Accuracy (i.e., the proportion of neonates assigned to the correct age) in aging newborns using published equations ranged from 0.0% to 39.4% in white-tailed deer, 0.0% to 3.3% in mule deer, and was 0.0% for pronghorns. Results of survival modeling indicated that variability in estimates of age-at-capture affected short-term estimates of survival (i.e., 30 days) for white-tailed deer and mule deer, and survival estimates over a longer time frame (i.e., 120 days) for mule deer. Conversely, survival estimates for pronghorn were not affected by estimates of age. Our analyses indicate that modeling survival in daily intervals is too fine a temporal scale when age-at-capture is unknown given the potential inaccuracies among equations used to estimate age of neonates. Instead, weekly survival intervals are more appropriate because most models accurately predicted ages within 1 week of the known age. Variation among results of neonatal-age models on short- and long-term estimates of survival for known-age young emphasizes the importance of selecting an appropriate hoof-growth equation and appropriately defining intervals (i.e., weekly versus daily) for estimating survival.

Occupancy Estimation and Modeling : Inferring Patterns and Dynamics of Species Occurrence

USGS Publications Warehouse

MacKenzie, D.I.; Nichols, J.D.; Royle, J. Andrew; Pollock, K.H.; Bailey, L.L.; Hines, J.E.

2006-01-01

This is the first book to examine the latest methods in analyzing presence/absence data surveys. Using four classes of models (single-species, single-season; single-species, multiple season; multiple-species, single-season; and multiple-species, multiple-season), the authors discuss the practical sampling situation, present a likelihood-based model enabling direct estimation of the occupancy-related parameters while allowing for imperfect detectability, and make recommendations for designing studies using these models. It provides authoritative insights into the latest in estimation modeling; discusses multiple models which lay the groundwork for future study designs; addresses critical issues of imperfect detectibility and its effects on estimation; and explores the role of probability in estimating in detail.

A matlab framework for estimation of NLME models using stochastic differential equations: applications for estimation of insulin secretion rates.

PubMed

Mortensen, Stig B; Klim, Søren; Dammann, Bernd; Kristensen, Niels R; Madsen, Henrik; Overgaard, Rune V

2007-10-01

The non-linear mixed-effects model based on stochastic differential equations (SDEs) provides an attractive residual error model, that is able to handle serially correlated residuals typically arising from structural mis-specification of the true underlying model. The use of SDEs also opens up for new tools for model development and easily allows for tracking of unknown inputs and parameters over time. An algorithm for maximum likelihood estimation of the model has earlier been proposed, and the present paper presents the first general implementation of this algorithm. The implementation is done in Matlab and also demonstrates the use of parallel computing for improved estimation times. The use of the implementation is illustrated by two examples of application which focus on the ability of the model to estimate unknown inputs facilitated by the extension to SDEs. The first application is a deconvolution-type estimation of the insulin secretion rate based on a linear two-compartment model for C-peptide measurements. In the second application the model is extended to also give an estimate of the time varying liver extraction based on both C-peptide and insulin measurements.

Estimating open population site occupancy from presence-absence data lacking the robust design.

PubMed

Dail, D; Madsen, L

2013-03-01

Many animal monitoring studies seek to estimate the proportion of a study area occupied by a target population. The study area is divided into spatially distinct sites where the detected presence or absence of the population is recorded, and this is repeated in time for multiple seasons. However, when occupied sites are detected with probability p < 1, the lack of a detection does not imply lack of occupancy. MacKenzie et al. (2003, Ecology 84, 2200-2207) developed a multiseason model for estimating seasonal site occupancy (ψt ) while accounting for unknown p. Their model performs well when observations are collected according to the robust design, where multiple sampling occasions occur during each season; the repeated sampling aids in the estimation p. However, their model does not perform as well when the robust design is lacking. In this paper, we propose an alternative likelihood model that yields improved seasonal estimates of p and Ψt in the absence of the robust design. We construct the marginal likelihood of the observed data by conditioning on, and summing out, the latent number of occupied sites during each season. A simulation study shows that in cases without the robust design, the proposed model estimates p with less bias than the MacKenzie et al. model and hence improves the estimates of Ψt . We apply both models to a data set consisting of repeated presence-absence observations of American robins (Turdus migratorius) with yearly survey periods. The two models are compared to a third estimator available when the repeated counts (from the same study) are considered, with the proposed model yielding estimates of Ψt closest to estimates from the point count model. Copyright © 2013, The International Biometric Society.

A method and implementation for incorporating heuristic knowledge into a state estimator through the use of a fuzzy model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swanson, Steven Roy

The objective of the dissertation is to improve state estimation performance, as compared to a Kalman filter, when non-constant, or changing, biases exist in the measurement data. The state estimation performance increase will come from the use of a fuzzy model to determine the position and velocity gains of a state estimator. A method is proposed for incorporating heuristic knowledge into a state estimator through the use of a fuzzy model. This method consists of using a fuzzy model to determine the gains of the state estimator, converting the heuristic knowledge into the fuzzy model, and then optimizing the fuzzy model with a genetic algorithm. This method is applied to the problem of state estimation of a cascaded global positioning system (GPS)/inertial reference unit (IRU) navigation system. The GPS position data contains two major sources for position bias. The first bias is due to satellite errors and the second is due to the time delay or lag from when the GPS position is calculated until it is used in the state estimator. When a change in the bias of the measurement data occurs, a state estimator will converge on the new measurement data solution. This will introduce errors into a Kalman filter's estimated state velocities, which in turn will cause a position overshoot as it converges. By using a fuzzy model to determine the gains of a state estimator, the velocity errors and their associated deficiencies can be reduced.

Time prediction of failure a type of lamps by using general composite hazard rate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riaman; Lesmana, E.; Subartini, B.; Supian, S.

2018-03-01

This paper discusses the basic survival model estimates to obtain the average predictive value of lamp failure time. This estimate is for the parametric model, General Composite Hazard Level Model. The random time variable model used is the exponential distribution model, as the basis, which has a constant hazard function. In this case, we discuss an example of survival model estimation for a composite hazard function, using an exponential model as its basis. To estimate this model is done by estimating model parameters, through the construction of survival function and empirical cumulative function. The model obtained, will then be used to predict the average failure time of the model, for the type of lamp. By grouping the data into several intervals and the average value of failure at each interval, then calculate the average failure time of a model based on each interval, the p value obtained from the tes result is 0.3296.

Tree STEM and Canopy Biomass Estimates from Terrestrial Laser Scanning Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olofsson, K.; Holmgren, J.

2017-10-01

In this study an automatic method for estimating both the tree stem and the tree canopy biomass is presented. The point cloud tree extraction techniques operate on TLS data and models the biomass using the estimated stem and canopy volume as independent variables. The regression model fit error is of the order of less than 5 kg, which gives a relative model error of about 5 % for the stem estimate and 10-15 % for the spruce and pine canopy biomass estimates. The canopy biomass estimate was improved by separating the models by tree species which indicates that the method is allometry dependent and that the regression models need to be recomputed for different areas with different climate and different vegetation.

Model-based estimation for dynamic cardiac studies using ECT

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chiao, P.C.; Rogers, W.L.; Clinthorne, N.H.

1994-06-01

In this paper, the authors develop a strategy for joint estimation of physiological parameters and myocardial boundaries using ECT (Emission Computed Tomography). The authors construct an observation model to relate parameters of interest to the projection data and to account for limited ECT system resolution and measurement noise. The authors then use a maximum likelihood (ML) estimator to jointly estimate all the parameters directly from the projection data without reconstruction of intermediate images. The authors also simulate myocardial perfusion studies based on a simplified heart model to evaluate the performance of the model-based joint ML estimator and compare this performancemore » to the Cramer-Rao lower bound. Finally, model assumptions and potential uses of the joint estimation strategy are discussed.« less

Effects of thinning intensities on transpiration and productivity of 50-year-old Pinus koraeinsis stands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Juhan; Kim, Taekyu; Moon, Minkyu; Cho, Sungsik; Ryu, Daun; Kim, Hyun Seok

2015-04-01

This study investigated the effects of thinning intensities on stand transpiration and productivity of 50-year-old Korean pine forests for two years. Forest thinning, which removes some fraction of trees from stand, is widely conducted for reducing competition between remaining trees, improving tree productivity, reducing the risk of natural fire, and thus maintaining healthy forest. Forest thinning alters the microclimatic conditions such as radiation distribution within canopy, vapor pressure deficit, and amount of available soil water. These changes influence on the tree water use, and related productivity. Thinning was conducted on March, 2012 with two intensities (Control, Light-thinning (20%), and Heavy-thinning (40% of tree density)). Transpiration was estimated from sap flux density, which was measured with Granier-type thermal dissipation sensors. Tree diameter growth was measured with dendrometer, and converted to tree productivity using allometric equations developed specifically in our study sites. The climatic conditions showed little differences between two years. During the first growing season after thinning, stand transpiration was ca. 20% and 42% lower on light-thinning and heavy-thinning stand, respectively, even though sap flux density were higher in thinned stand. The difference in stand transpiration among treatments showed seasonal trends, so it was larger on summer when soil moisture was abundant due to monsoon, but was diminished on spring and autumn when soil moisture was limited. Tree-level productivity increased ca. 8% and 21% on light-thinning and heavy thinning stand, respectively. However, stand net primary production was ca. 20% lower on light-thinning stand, and ca. 31% on heavy-thinning stand. As a result, water use efficiency increased only in heavy-thinning stand. During the second growing season after thinning, stand transpiration was ca. 19% lower on light-thinning stand, and ca. 37% lower on heavy-thinning stand. The reduction of stand transpiration difference in heavy-thinning stand was caused mainly by increase in sap flux density. Trees in thinned stand showed higher productivity, but the magnitude was ca. 4% on light-thinning stand, and ca. 27% on heavy-thinning stand. Stand net primary production was ca. 23% lower on light-thinning stand, and ca. 28% on heavy-thinning stand. As a result, heavy-thinning stand showed highest water use efficiency. These results indicate that there are differences in biological reactions with thinning intensities.

Linking Air Quality and Watershed Models for Environmental Assessments: Analysis of the Effects of Model-Specific Precipitation Estimates on Calculated Water Flux

EPA Science Inventory

Directly linking air quality and watershed models could provide an effective method for estimating spatially-explicit inputs of atmospheric contaminants to watershed biogeochemical models. However, to adequately link air and watershed models for wet deposition estimates, each mod...

Joint Multi-Fiber NODDI Parameter Estimation and Tractography Using the Unscented Information Filter

PubMed Central

Reddy, Chinthala P.; Rathi, Yogesh

2016-01-01

Tracing white matter fiber bundles is an integral part of analyzing brain connectivity. An accurate estimate of the underlying tissue parameters is also paramount in several neuroscience applications. In this work, we propose to use a joint fiber model estimation and tractography algorithm that uses the NODDI (neurite orientation dispersion diffusion imaging) model to estimate fiber orientation dispersion consistently and smoothly along the fiber tracts along with estimating the intracellular and extracellular volume fractions from the diffusion signal. While the NODDI model has been used in earlier works to estimate the microstructural parameters at each voxel independently, for the first time, we propose to integrate it into a tractography framework. We extend this framework to estimate the NODDI parameters for two crossing fibers, which is imperative to trace fiber bundles through crossings as well as to estimate the microstructural parameters for each fiber bundle separately. We propose to use the unscented information filter (UIF) to accurately estimate the model parameters and perform tractography. The proposed approach has significant computational performance improvements as well as numerical robustness over the unscented Kalman filter (UKF). Our method not only estimates the confidence in the estimated parameters via the covariance matrix, but also provides the Fisher-information matrix of the state variables (model parameters), which can be quite useful to measure model complexity. Results from in-vivo human brain data sets demonstrate the ability of our algorithm to trace through crossing fiber regions, while estimating orientation dispersion and other biophysical model parameters in a consistent manner along the tracts. PMID:27147956

Joint Multi-Fiber NODDI Parameter Estimation and Tractography Using the Unscented Information Filter.

PubMed

Reddy, Chinthala P; Rathi, Yogesh

2016-01-01

Tracing white matter fiber bundles is an integral part of analyzing brain connectivity. An accurate estimate of the underlying tissue parameters is also paramount in several neuroscience applications. In this work, we propose to use a joint fiber model estimation and tractography algorithm that uses the NODDI (neurite orientation dispersion diffusion imaging) model to estimate fiber orientation dispersion consistently and smoothly along the fiber tracts along with estimating the intracellular and extracellular volume fractions from the diffusion signal. While the NODDI model has been used in earlier works to estimate the microstructural parameters at each voxel independently, for the first time, we propose to integrate it into a tractography framework. We extend this framework to estimate the NODDI parameters for two crossing fibers, which is imperative to trace fiber bundles through crossings as well as to estimate the microstructural parameters for each fiber bundle separately. We propose to use the unscented information filter (UIF) to accurately estimate the model parameters and perform tractography. The proposed approach has significant computational performance improvements as well as numerical robustness over the unscented Kalman filter (UKF). Our method not only estimates the confidence in the estimated parameters via the covariance matrix, but also provides the Fisher-information matrix of the state variables (model parameters), which can be quite useful to measure model complexity. Results from in-vivo human brain data sets demonstrate the ability of our algorithm to trace through crossing fiber regions, while estimating orientation dispersion and other biophysical model parameters in a consistent manner along the tracts.

Evaluating alternate models to estimate genetic parameters of calving traits in United Kingdom Holstein-Friesian dairy cattle.

PubMed

Eaglen, Sophie A E; Coffey, Mike P; Woolliams, John A; Wall, Eileen

2012-07-28

The focus in dairy cattle breeding is gradually shifting from production to functional traits and genetic parameters of calving traits are estimated more frequently. However, across countries, various statistical models are used to estimate these parameters. This study evaluates different models for calving ease and stillbirth in United Kingdom Holstein-Friesian cattle. Data from first and later parity records were used. Genetic parameters for calving ease, stillbirth and gestation length were estimated using the restricted maximum likelihood method, considering different models i.e. sire (-maternal grandsire), animal, univariate and bivariate models. Gestation length was fitted as a correlated indicator trait and, for all three traits, genetic correlations between first and later parities were estimated. Potential bias in estimates was avoided by acknowledging a possible environmental direct-maternal covariance. The total heritable variance was estimated for each trait to discuss its theoretical importance and practical value. Prediction error variances and accuracies were calculated to compare the models. On average, direct and maternal heritabilities for calving traits were low, except for direct gestation length. Calving ease in first parity had a significant and negative direct-maternal genetic correlation. Gestation length was maternally correlated to stillbirth in first parity and directly correlated to calving ease in later parities. Multi-trait models had a slightly greater predictive ability than univariate models, especially for the lowly heritable traits. The computation time needed for sire (-maternal grandsire) models was much smaller than for animal models with only small differences in accuracy. The sire (-maternal grandsire) model was robust when additional genetic components were estimated, while the equivalent animal model had difficulties reaching convergence. For the evaluation of calving traits, multi-trait models show a slight advantage over univariate models. Extended sire models (-maternal grandsire) are more practical and robust than animal models. Estimated genetic parameters for calving traits of UK Holstein cattle are consistent with literature. Calculating an aggregate estimated breeding value including direct and maternal values should encourage breeders to consider both direct and maternal effects in selection decisions.

Evaluating alternate models to estimate genetic parameters of calving traits in United Kingdom Holstein-Friesian dairy cattle

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background The focus in dairy cattle breeding is gradually shifting from production to functional traits and genetic parameters of calving traits are estimated more frequently. However, across countries, various statistical models are used to estimate these parameters. This study evaluates different models for calving ease and stillbirth in United Kingdom Holstein-Friesian cattle. Methods Data from first and later parity records were used. Genetic parameters for calving ease, stillbirth and gestation length were estimated using the restricted maximum likelihood method, considering different models i.e. sire (−maternal grandsire), animal, univariate and bivariate models. Gestation length was fitted as a correlated indicator trait and, for all three traits, genetic correlations between first and later parities were estimated. Potential bias in estimates was avoided by acknowledging a possible environmental direct-maternal covariance. The total heritable variance was estimated for each trait to discuss its theoretical importance and practical value. Prediction error variances and accuracies were calculated to compare the models. Results and discussion On average, direct and maternal heritabilities for calving traits were low, except for direct gestation length. Calving ease in first parity had a significant and negative direct-maternal genetic correlation. Gestation length was maternally correlated to stillbirth in first parity and directly correlated to calving ease in later parities. Multi-trait models had a slightly greater predictive ability than univariate models, especially for the lowly heritable traits. The computation time needed for sire (−maternal grandsire) models was much smaller than for animal models with only small differences in accuracy. The sire (−maternal grandsire) model was robust when additional genetic components were estimated, while the equivalent animal model had difficulties reaching convergence. Conclusions For the evaluation of calving traits, multi-trait models show a slight advantage over univariate models. Extended sire models (−maternal grandsire) are more practical and robust than animal models. Estimated genetic parameters for calving traits of UK Holstein cattle are consistent with literature. Calculating an aggregate estimated breeding value including direct and maternal values should encourage breeders to consider both direct and maternal effects in selection decisions. PMID:22839757

Streamflow characteristics from modelled runoff time series: Importance of calibration criteria selection

USGS Publications Warehouse

Poole, Sandra; Vis, Marc; Knight, Rodney; Seibert, Jan

2017-01-01

Ecologically relevant streamflow characteristics (SFCs) of ungauged catchments are often estimated from simulated runoff of hydrologic models that were originally calibrated on gauged catchments. However, SFC estimates of the gauged donor catchments and subsequently the ungauged catchments can be substantially uncertain when models are calibrated using traditional approaches based on optimization of statistical performance metrics (e.g., Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency). An improved calibration strategy for gauged catchments is therefore crucial to help reduce the uncertainties of estimated SFCs for ungauged catchments. The aim of this study was to improve SFC estimates from modeled runoff time series in gauged catchments by explicitly including one or several SFCs in the calibration process. Different types of objective functions were defined consisting of the Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency, single SFCs, or combinations thereof. We calibrated a bucket-type runoff model (HBV – Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenavdelning – model) for 25 catchments in the Tennessee River basin and evaluated the proposed calibration approach on 13 ecologically relevant SFCs representing major flow regime components and different flow conditions. While the model generally tended to underestimate the tested SFCs related to mean and high-flow conditions, SFCs related to low flow were generally overestimated. The highest estimation accuracies were achieved by a SFC-specific model calibration. Estimates of SFCs not included in the calibration process were of similar quality when comparing a multi-SFC calibration approach to a traditional model efficiency calibration. For practical applications, this implies that SFCs should preferably be estimated from targeted runoff model calibration, and modeled estimates need to be carefully interpreted.

Predation rates by North Sea cod (Gadus morhua) - Predictions from models on gastric evacuation and bioenergetics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hansson, S.; Rudstam, L. G.; Kitchell, J.F.; Hilden, M.; Johnson, B.L.; Peppard, P.E.

1996-01-01

We compared four different methods for estimating predation rates by North Sea cod (Gadus moi hua). Three estimates, based on gastric evacuation rates, came from an ICES multispecies working group and the fourth from a bioenergetics model. The bioenergetics model was developed from a review of literature on cod physiology. The three gastric evacuation rate models produced very different prey consumption estimates for small (2 kg) fish. For most size and age classes, the bioenergetics model predicted food consumption rates intermediate to those predicted by the gastric evacuation models. Using the standard ICES model and the average population abundance and age structure for 1974-1989, annual, prey consumption by the North Sea cod population (age greater than or equal to 1) was 840 kilotons. The other two evacuation rate models produced estimates of 1020 and 1640 kilotons, respectively. The bioenergetics model estimate was 1420 kilotons. The major differences between models were due to consumption rate estimates for younger age groups of cod. (C) 1996 International Council for the Exploration of the Sea

Establishment of a center of excellence for applied mathematical and statistical research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Woodward, W. A.; Gray, H. L.

1983-01-01

The state of the art was assessed with regards to efforts in support of the crop production estimation problem and alternative generic proportion estimation techniques were investigated. Topics covered include modeling the greeness profile (Badhwarmos model), parameter estimation using mixture models such as CLASSY, and minimum distance estimation as an alternative to maximum likelihood estimation. Approaches to the problem of obtaining proportion estimates when the underlying distributions are asymmetric are examined including the properties of Weibull distribution.

AMEM-ADL Polymer Migration Estimation Model User's Guide

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The user's guide of the Arthur D. Little Polymer Migration Estimation Model (AMEM) provides the information on how the model estimates the fraction of a chemical additive that diffuses through polymeric matrices.

Deep space network software cost estimation model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tausworthe, R. C.

1981-01-01

A parametric software cost estimation model prepared for Deep Space Network (DSN) Data Systems implementation tasks is presented. The resource estimation model incorporates principles and data from a number of existing models. The model calibrates task magnitude and difficulty, development environment, and software technology effects through prompted responses to a set of approximately 50 questions. Parameters in the model are adjusted to fit DSN software life cycle statistics. The estimation model output scales a standard DSN Work Breakdown Structure skeleton, which is then input into a PERT/CPM system, producing a detailed schedule and resource budget for the project being planned.

Assessment of the Value, Impact, and Validity of the Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) Suite of Models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Billman, L.; Keyser, D.

The Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) models, developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), use input-output methodology to estimate gross (not net) jobs and economic impacts of building and operating selected types of renewable electricity generation and fuel plants. This analysis provides the DOE with an assessment of the value, impact, and validity of the JEDI suite of models. While the models produce estimates of jobs, earnings, and economic output, this analysis focuses only on jobs estimates. This validation report includes an introductionmore » to JEDI models, an analysis of the value and impact of the JEDI models, and an analysis of the validity of job estimates generated by JEDI model through comparison to other modeled estimates and comparison to empirical, observed jobs data as reported or estimated for a commercial project, a state, or a region.« less

Adaptive estimation of state of charge and capacity with online identified battery model for vanadium redox flow battery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Zhongbao; Tseng, King Jet; Wai, Nyunt; Lim, Tuti Mariana; Skyllas-Kazacos, Maria

2016-11-01

Reliable state estimate depends largely on an accurate battery model. However, the parameters of battery model are time varying with operating condition variation and battery aging. The existing co-estimation methods address the model uncertainty by integrating the online model identification with state estimate and have shown improved accuracy. However, the cross interference may arise from the integrated framework to compromise numerical stability and accuracy. Thus this paper proposes the decoupling of model identification and state estimate to eliminate the possibility of cross interference. The model parameters are online adapted with the recursive least squares (RLS) method, based on which a novel joint estimator based on extended Kalman Filter (EKF) is formulated to estimate the state of charge (SOC) and capacity concurrently. The proposed joint estimator effectively compresses the filter order which leads to substantial improvement in the computational efficiency and numerical stability. Lab scale experiment on vanadium redox flow battery shows that the proposed method is highly authentic with good robustness to varying operating conditions and battery aging. The proposed method is further compared with some existing methods and shown to be superior in terms of accuracy, convergence speed, and computational cost.

SEASONAL NH 3 EMISSIONS FOR THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES: INVERSE MODEL ESTIMATION AND EVALUATION

EPA Science Inventory

An inverse modeling study has been conducted here to evaluate a prior estimate of seasonal ammonia (NH₃) emissions. The prior estimates were based on a previous inverse modeling study and two other bottom-up inventory studies. The results suggest that the prior estim...

A Note on Structural Equation Modeling Estimates of Reliability

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yang, Yanyun; Green, Samuel B.

2010-01-01

Reliability can be estimated using structural equation modeling (SEM). Two potential problems with this approach are that estimates may be unstable with small sample sizes and biased with misspecified models. A Monte Carlo study was conducted to investigate the quality of SEM estimates of reliability by themselves and relative to coefficient…

An Alternative Procedure for Estimating Unit Learning Curves,

DTIC Science & Technology

1985-09-01

the model accurately describes the real-life situation, i.e., when the model is properly applied to the data, it can be a powerful tool for...predicting unit production costs. There are, however, some unique estimation problems inherent in the model . The usual method of generating predicted unit...production costs attempts to extend properties of least squares estimators to non- linear functions of these estimators. The result is biased estimates of

Estimation of unemployment rates using small area estimation model by combining time series and cross-sectional data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muchlisoh, Siti; Kurnia, Anang; Notodiputro, Khairil Anwar; Mangku, I. Wayan

2016-02-01

Labor force surveys conducted over time by the rotating panel design have been carried out in many countries, including Indonesia. Labor force survey in Indonesia is regularly conducted by Statistics Indonesia (Badan Pusat Statistik-BPS) and has been known as the National Labor Force Survey (Sakernas). The main purpose of Sakernas is to obtain information about unemployment rates and its changes over time. Sakernas is a quarterly survey. The quarterly survey is designed only for estimating the parameters at the provincial level. The quarterly unemployment rate published by BPS (official statistics) is calculated based on only cross-sectional methods, despite the fact that the data is collected under rotating panel design. The study purpose to estimate a quarterly unemployment rate at the district level used small area estimation (SAE) model by combining time series and cross-sectional data. The study focused on the application and comparison between the Rao-Yu model and dynamic model in context estimating the unemployment rate based on a rotating panel survey. The goodness of fit of both models was almost similar. Both models produced an almost similar estimation and better than direct estimation, but the dynamic model was more capable than the Rao-Yu model to capture a heterogeneity across area, although it was reduced over time.

Sensitivity analysis of pars-tensa young's modulus estimation using inverse finite-element modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rohani, S. Alireza; Elfarnawany, Mai; Agrawal, Sumit K.; Ladak, Hanif M.

2018-05-01

Accurate estimates of the pars-tensa (PT) Young's modulus (EPT) are required in finite-element (FE) modeling studies of the middle ear. Previously, we introduced an in-situ EPT estimation technique by optimizing a sample-specific FE model to match experimental eardrum pressurization data. This optimization process requires choosing some modeling assumptions such as PT thickness and boundary conditions. These assumptions are reported with a wide range of variation in the literature, hence affecting the reliability of the models. In addition, the sensitivity of the estimated EPT to FE modeling assumptions has not been studied. Therefore, the objective of this study is to identify the most influential modeling assumption on EPT estimates. The middle-ear cavity extracted from a cadaveric temporal bone was pressurized to 500 Pa. The deformed shape of the eardrum after pressurization was measured using a Fourier transform profilometer (FTP). A base-line FE model of the unpressurized middle ear was created. The EPT was estimated using golden section optimization method, which minimizes the cost function comparing the deformed FE model shape to the measured shape after pressurization. The effect of varying the modeling assumptions on EPT estimates were investigated. This included the change in PT thickness, pars flaccida Young's modulus and possible FTP measurement error. The most influential parameter on EPT estimation was PT thickness and the least influential parameter was pars flaccida Young's modulus. The results of this study provide insight into how different parameters affect the results of EPT optimization and which parameters' uncertainties require further investigation to develop robust estimation techniques.

Soil Moisture or Groundwater?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swenson, S. C.; Lawrence, D. M.

2017-12-01

Partitioning the vertically integrated water storage variations estimated from GRACE satellite data into the components of which it is comprised requires independent information. Land surface models, which simulate the transfer and storage of moisture and energy at the land surface, are often used to estimate water storage variability of snow, surface water, and soil moisture. To obtain an estimate of changes in groundwater, the estimates of these storage components are removed from GRACE data. Biases in the modeled water storage components are therefore present in the residual groundwater estimate. In this study, we examine how soil moisture variability, estimated using the Community Land Model (CLM), depends on the vertical structure of the model. We then explore the implications of this uncertainty in the context of estimating groundwater variations using GRACE data.

Nonparametric estimation and testing of fixed effects panel data models

PubMed Central

Henderson, Daniel J.; Carroll, Raymond J.; Li, Qi

2009-01-01

In this paper we consider the problem of estimating nonparametric panel data models with fixed effects. We introduce an iterative nonparametric kernel estimator. We also extend the estimation method to the case of a semiparametric partially linear fixed effects model. To determine whether a parametric, semiparametric or nonparametric model is appropriate, we propose test statistics to test between the three alternatives in practice. We further propose a test statistic for testing the null hypothesis of random effects against fixed effects in a nonparametric panel data regression model. Simulations are used to examine the finite sample performance of the proposed estimators and the test statistics. PMID:19444335

On the Relationships between Jeffreys Modal and Weighted Likelihood Estimation of Ability under Logistic IRT Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Magis, David; Raiche, Gilles

2012-01-01

This paper focuses on two estimators of ability with logistic item response theory models: the Bayesian modal (BM) estimator and the weighted likelihood (WL) estimator. For the BM estimator, Jeffreys' prior distribution is considered, and the corresponding estimator is referred to as the Jeffreys modal (JM) estimator. It is established that under…

Estimating Software-Development Costs With Greater Accuracy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baker, Dan; Hihn, Jairus; Lum, Karen

2008-01-01

COCOMOST is a computer program for use in estimating software development costs. The goal in the development of COCOMOST was to increase estimation accuracy in three ways: (1) develop a set of sensitivity software tools that return not only estimates of costs but also the estimation error; (2) using the sensitivity software tools, precisely define the quantities of data needed to adequately tune cost estimation models; and (3) build a repository of software-cost-estimation information that NASA managers can retrieve to improve the estimates of costs of developing software for their project. COCOMOST implements a methodology, called '2cee', in which a unique combination of well-known pre-existing data-mining and software-development- effort-estimation techniques are used to increase the accuracy of estimates. COCOMOST utilizes multiple models to analyze historical data pertaining to software-development projects and performs an exhaustive data-mining search over the space of model parameters to improve the performances of effort-estimation models. Thus, it is possible to both calibrate and generate estimates at the same time. COCOMOST is written in the C language for execution in the UNIX operating system.

An Application of Semi-parametric Estimator with Weighted Matrix of Data Depth in Variance Component Estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, X. G.; Wang, J. Q.; Zhou, H. Y.

2013-05-01

The variance component estimation (VCE) based on semi-parametric estimator with weighted matrix of data depth has been proposed, because the coupling system model error and gross error exist in the multi-source heterogeneous measurement data of space and ground combined TT&C (Telemetry, Tracking and Command) technology. The uncertain model error has been estimated with the semi-parametric estimator model, and the outlier has been restrained with the weighted matrix of data depth. On the basis of the restriction of the model error and outlier, the VCE can be improved and used to estimate weighted matrix for the observation data with uncertain model error or outlier. Simulation experiment has been carried out under the circumstance of space and ground combined TT&C. The results show that the new VCE based on the model error compensation can determine the rational weight of the multi-source heterogeneous data, and restrain the outlier data.

Make the most of your samples: Bayes factor estimators for high-dimensional models of sequence evolution

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Accurate model comparison requires extensive computation times, especially for parameter-rich models of sequence evolution. In the Bayesian framework, model selection is typically performed through the evaluation of a Bayes factor, the ratio of two marginal likelihoods (one for each model). Recently introduced techniques to estimate (log) marginal likelihoods, such as path sampling and stepping-stone sampling, offer increased accuracy over the traditional harmonic mean estimator at an increased computational cost. Most often, each model’s marginal likelihood will be estimated individually, which leads the resulting Bayes factor to suffer from errors associated with each of these independent estimation processes. Results We here assess the original ‘model-switch’ path sampling approach for direct Bayes factor estimation in phylogenetics, as well as an extension that uses more samples, to construct a direct path between two competing models, thereby eliminating the need to calculate each model’s marginal likelihood independently. Further, we provide a competing Bayes factor estimator using an adaptation of the recently introduced stepping-stone sampling algorithm and set out to determine appropriate settings for accurately calculating such Bayes factors, with context-dependent evolutionary models as an example. While we show that modest efforts are required to roughly identify the increase in model fit, only drastically increased computation times ensure the accuracy needed to detect more subtle details of the evolutionary process. Conclusions We show that our adaptation of stepping-stone sampling for direct Bayes factor calculation outperforms the original path sampling approach as well as an extension that exploits more samples. Our proposed approach for Bayes factor estimation also has preferable statistical properties over the use of individual marginal likelihood estimates for both models under comparison. Assuming a sigmoid function to determine the path between two competing models, we provide evidence that a single well-chosen sigmoid shape value requires less computational efforts in order to approximate the true value of the (log) Bayes factor compared to the original approach. We show that the (log) Bayes factors calculated using path sampling and stepping-stone sampling differ drastically from those estimated using either of the harmonic mean estimators, supporting earlier claims that the latter systematically overestimate the performance of high-dimensional models, which we show can lead to erroneous conclusions. Based on our results, we argue that highly accurate estimation of differences in model fit for high-dimensional models requires much more computational effort than suggested in recent studies on marginal likelihood estimation. PMID:23497171

Development of a method to rate the primary safety of vehicles using linked New Zealand crash and vehicle licensing data.

PubMed

Keall, Michael D; Newstead, Stuart

2016-01-01

Vehicle safety rating systems aim firstly to inform consumers about safe vehicle choices and, secondly, to encourage vehicle manufacturers to aspire to safer levels of vehicle performance. Primary rating systems (that measure the ability of a vehicle to assist the driver in avoiding crashes) have not been developed for a variety of reasons, mainly associated with the difficult task of disassociating driver behavior and vehicle exposure characteristics from the estimation of crash involvement risk specific to a given vehicle. The aim of the current study was to explore different approaches to primary safety estimation, identifying which approaches (if any) may be most valid and most practical, given typical data that may be available for producing ratings. Data analyzed consisted of crash data and motor vehicle registration data for the period 2003 to 2012: 21,643,864 observations (representing vehicle-years) and 135,578 crashed vehicles. Various logistic models were tested as a means to estimate primary safety: Conditional models (conditioning on the vehicle owner over all vehicles owned); full models not conditioned on the owner, with all available owner and vehicle data; reduced models with few variables; induced exposure models; and models that synthesised elements from the latter two models. It was found that excluding young drivers (aged 25 and under) from all primary safety estimates attenuated some high risks estimated for make/model combinations favored by young people. The conditional model had clear biases that made it unsuitable. Estimates from a reduced model based just on crash rates per year (but including an owner location variable) produced estimates that were generally similar to the full model, although there was more spread in the estimates. The best replication of the full model estimates was generated by a synthesis of the reduced model and an induced exposure model. This study compared approaches to estimating primary safety that could mimic an analysis based on a very rich data set, using variables that are commonly available when registered fleet data are linked to crash data. This exploratory study has highlighted promising avenues for developing primary safety rating systems for vehicle makes and models.

INVERSE MODEL ESTIMATION AND EVALUATION OF SEASONAL NH 3 EMISSIONS

EPA Science Inventory

The presentation topic is inverse modeling for estimate and evaluation of emissions. The case study presented is the need for seasonal estimates of NH₃ emissions for air quality modeling. The inverse modeling application approach is first described, and then the NH

Estimation of Soil Moisture Profile using a Simple Hydrology Model and Passive Microwave Remote Sensing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Soman, Vishwas V.; Crosson, William L.; Laymon, Charles; Tsegaye, Teferi

1998-01-01

Soil moisture is an important component of analysis in many Earth science disciplines. Soil moisture information can be obtained either by using microwave remote sensing or by using a hydrologic model. In this study, we combined these two approaches to increase the accuracy of profile soil moisture estimation. A hydrologic model was used to analyze the errors in the estimation of soil moisture using the data collected during Huntsville '96 microwave remote sensing experiment in Huntsville, Alabama. Root mean square errors (RMSE) in soil moisture estimation increase by 22% with increase in the model input interval from 6 hr to 12 hr for the grass-covered plot. RMSEs were reduced for given model time step by 20-50% when model soil moisture estimates were updated using remotely-sensed data. This methodology has a potential to be employed in soil moisture estimation using rainfall data collected by a space-borne sensor, such as the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite, if remotely-sensed data are available to update the model estimates.

INTEGRATED SPEED ESTIMATION MODEL FOR MULTILANE EXPREESSWAYS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hong, Sungjoon; Oguchi, Takashi

In this paper, an integrated speed-estimation model is developed based on empirical analyses for the basic sections of intercity multilane expressway un der the uncongested condition. This model enables a speed estimation for each lane at any site under arb itrary highway-alignment, traffic (traffic flow and truck percentage), and rainfall conditions. By combin ing this model and a lane-use model which estimates traffic distribution on the lanes by each vehicle type, it is also possible to es timate an average speed across all the lanes of one direction from a traffic demand by vehicle type under specific highway-alignment and rainfall conditions. This model is exp ected to be a tool for the evaluation of traffic performance for expressways when the performance me asure is travel speed, which is necessary for Performance-Oriented Highway Planning and Design. Regarding the highway-alignment condition, two new estimators, called effective horizo ntal curvature and effective vertical grade, are proposed in this paper which take into account the influence of upstream and downstream alignment conditions. They are applied to the speed-estimation model, and it shows increased accuracy of the estimation.

Hidden Markov model for dependent mark loss and survival estimation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Laake, Jeffrey L.; Johnson, Devin S.; Diefenbach, Duane R.; Ternent, Mark A.

2014-01-01

Mark-recapture estimators assume no loss of marks to provide unbiased estimates of population parameters. We describe a hidden Markov model (HMM) framework that integrates a mark loss model with a Cormack–Jolly–Seber model for survival estimation. Mark loss can be estimated with single-marked animals as long as a sub-sample of animals has a permanent mark. Double-marking provides an estimate of mark loss assuming independence but dependence can be modeled with a permanently marked sub-sample. We use a log-linear approach to include covariates for mark loss and dependence which is more flexible than existing published methods for integrated models. The HMM approach is demonstrated with a dataset of black bears (Ursus americanus) with two ear tags and a subset of which were permanently marked with tattoos. The data were analyzed with and without the tattoo. Dropping the tattoos resulted in estimates of survival that were reduced by 0.005–0.035 due to tag loss dependence that could not be modeled. We also analyzed the data with and without the tattoo using a single tag. By not using.

Spectral Estimation Model Construction of Heavy Metals in Mining Reclamation Areas

PubMed Central

Dong, Jihong; Dai, Wenting; Xu, Jiren; Li, Songnian

2016-01-01

The study reported here examined, as the research subject, surface soils in the Liuxin mining area of Xuzhou, and explored the heavy metal content and spectral data by establishing quantitative models with Multivariable Linear Regression (MLR), Generalized Regression Neural Network (GRNN) and Sequential Minimal Optimization for Support Vector Machine (SMO-SVM) methods. The study results are as follows: (1) the estimations of the spectral inversion models established based on MLR, GRNN and SMO-SVM are satisfactory, and the MLR model provides the worst estimation, with R2 of more than 0.46. This result suggests that the stress sensitive bands of heavy metal pollution contain enough effective spectral information; (2) the GRNN model can simulate the data from small samples more effectively than the MLR model, and the R2 between the contents of the five heavy metals estimated by the GRNN model and the measured values are approximately 0.7; (3) the stability and accuracy of the spectral estimation using the SMO-SVM model are obviously better than that of the GRNN and MLR models. Among all five types of heavy metals, the estimation for cadmium (Cd) is the best when using the SMO-SVM model, and its R2 value reaches 0.8628; (4) using the optimal model to invert the Cd content in wheat that are planted on mine reclamation soil, the R2 and RMSE between the measured and the estimated values are 0.6683 and 0.0489, respectively. This result suggests that the method using the SMO-SVM model to estimate the contents of heavy metals in wheat samples is feasible. PMID:27367708

Spectral Estimation Model Construction of Heavy Metals in Mining Reclamation Areas.

PubMed

Dong, Jihong; Dai, Wenting; Xu, Jiren; Li, Songnian

2016-06-28

The study reported here examined, as the research subject, surface soils in the Liuxin mining area of Xuzhou, and explored the heavy metal content and spectral data by establishing quantitative models with Multivariable Linear Regression (MLR), Generalized Regression Neural Network (GRNN) and Sequential Minimal Optimization for Support Vector Machine (SMO-SVM) methods. The study results are as follows: (1) the estimations of the spectral inversion models established based on MLR, GRNN and SMO-SVM are satisfactory, and the MLR model provides the worst estimation, with R² of more than 0.46. This result suggests that the stress sensitive bands of heavy metal pollution contain enough effective spectral information; (2) the GRNN model can simulate the data from small samples more effectively than the MLR model, and the R² between the contents of the five heavy metals estimated by the GRNN model and the measured values are approximately 0.7; (3) the stability and accuracy of the spectral estimation using the SMO-SVM model are obviously better than that of the GRNN and MLR models. Among all five types of heavy metals, the estimation for cadmium (Cd) is the best when using the SMO-SVM model, and its R² value reaches 0.8628; (4) using the optimal model to invert the Cd content in wheat that are planted on mine reclamation soil, the R² and RMSE between the measured and the estimated values are 0.6683 and 0.0489, respectively. This result suggests that the method using the SMO-SVM model to estimate the contents of heavy metals in wheat samples is feasible.

Mixed model approaches for diallel analysis based on a bio-model.

PubMed

Zhu, J; Weir, B S

1996-12-01

A MINQUE(1) procedure, which is minimum norm quadratic unbiased estimation (MINQUE) method with 1 for all the prior values, is suggested for estimating variance and covariance components in a bio-model for diallel crosses. Unbiasedness and efficiency of estimation were compared for MINQUE(1), restricted maximum likelihood (REML) and MINQUE theta which has parameter values for the prior values. MINQUE(1) is almost as efficient as MINQUE theta for unbiased estimation of genetic variance and covariance components. The bio-model is efficient and robust for estimating variance and covariance components for maternal and paternal effects as well as for nuclear effects. A procedure of adjusted unbiased prediction (AUP) is proposed for predicting random genetic effects in the bio-model. The jack-knife procedure is suggested for estimation of sampling variances of estimated variance and covariance components and of predicted genetic effects. Worked examples are given for estimation of variance and covariance components and for prediction of genetic merits.

Distributed Damage Estimation for Prognostics based on Structural Model Decomposition

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Daigle, Matthew; Bregon, Anibal; Roychoudhury, Indranil

2011-01-01

Model-based prognostics approaches capture system knowledge in the form of physics-based models of components, and how they fail. These methods consist of a damage estimation phase, in which the health state of a component is estimated, and a prediction phase, in which the health state is projected forward in time to determine end of life. However, the damage estimation problem is often multi-dimensional and computationally intensive. We propose a model decomposition approach adapted from the diagnosis community, called possible conflicts, in order to both improve the computational efficiency of damage estimation, and formulate a damage estimation approach that is inherently distributed. Local state estimates are combined into a global state estimate from which prediction is performed. Using a centrifugal pump as a case study, we perform a number of simulation-based experiments to demonstrate the approach.

Estimating parasitic sea lamprey abundance in Lake Huron from heterogenous data sources

USGS Publications Warehouse

Young, Robert J.; Jones, Michael L.; Bence, James R.; McDonald, Rodney B.; Mullett, Katherine M.; Bergstedt, Roger A.

2003-01-01

The Great Lakes Fishery Commission uses time series of transformer, parasitic, and spawning population estimates to evaluate the effectiveness of its sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) control program. This study used an inverse variance weighting method to integrate Lake Huron sea lamprey population estimates derived from two estimation procedures: 1) prediction of the lake-wide spawning population from a regression model based on stream size and, 2) whole-lake mark and recapture estimates. In addition, we used a re-sampling procedure to evaluate the effect of trading off sampling effort between the regression and mark-recapture models. Population estimates derived from the regression model ranged from 132,000 to 377,000 while mark-recapture estimates of marked recently metamorphosed juveniles and parasitic sea lampreys ranged from 536,000 to 634,000 and 484,000 to 1,608,000, respectively. The precision of the estimates varied greatly among estimation procedures and years. The integrated estimate of the mark-recapture and spawner regression procedures ranged from 252,000 to 702,000 transformers. The re-sampling procedure indicated that the regression model is more sensitive to reduction in sampling effort than the mark-recapture model. Reliance on either the regression or mark-recapture model alone could produce misleading estimates of abundance of sea lampreys and the effect of the control program on sea lamprey abundance. These analyses indicate that the precision of the lakewide population estimate can be maximized by re-allocating sampling effort from marking sea lampreys to trapping additional streams.

Multi-Cone Model for Estimating GPS Ionospheric Delays

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sparks, Lawrence; Komjathy, Attila; Mannucci, Anthony

2009-01-01

The multi-cone model is a computational model for estimating ionospheric delays of Global Positioning System (GPS) signals. It is a direct descendant of the conical-domain model. A primary motivation for the development of this model is the need to find alternatives for modeling slant delays at low latitudes, where ionospheric behavior poses an acute challenge for GPS signal-delay estimates based upon the thin-shell model of the ionosphere.

Modeling Methods

USGS Publications Warehouse

Healy, Richard W.; Scanlon, Bridget R.

2010-01-01

Simulation models are widely used in all types of hydrologic studies, and many of these models can be used to estimate recharge. Models can provide important insight into the functioning of hydrologic systems by identifying factors that influence recharge. The predictive capability of models can be used to evaluate how changes in climate, water use, land use, and other factors may affect recharge rates. Most hydrological simulation models, including watershed models and groundwater-flow models, are based on some form of water-budget equation, so the material in this chapter is closely linked to that in Chapter 2. Empirical models that are not based on a water-budget equation have also been used for estimating recharge; these models generally take the form of simple estimation equations that define annual recharge as a function of precipitation and possibly other climatic data or watershed characteristics.Model complexity varies greatly. Some models are simple accounting models; others attempt to accurately represent the physics of water movement through each compartment of the hydrologic system. Some models provide estimates of recharge explicitly; for example, a model based on the Richards equation can simulate water movement from the soil surface through the unsaturated zone to the water table. Recharge estimates can be obtained indirectly from other models. For example, recharge is a parameter in groundwater-flow models that solve for hydraulic head (i.e. groundwater level). Recharge estimates can be obtained through a model calibration process in which recharge and other model parameter values are adjusted so that simulated water levels agree with measured water levels. The simulation that provides the closest agreement is called the best fit, and the recharge value used in that simulation is the model-generated estimate of recharge.

Parameter Estimates in Differential Equation Models for Chemical Kinetics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Winkel, Brian

2011-01-01

We discuss the need for devoting time in differential equations courses to modelling and the completion of the modelling process with efforts to estimate the parameters in the models using data. We estimate the parameters present in several differential equation models of chemical reactions of order n, where n = 0, 1, 2, and apply more general…

Annual survival of Snail Kites in Florida: Radio telemetry versus capture-resighting data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bennetts, R.E.; Dreitz, V.J.; Kitchens, W.M.; Hines, J.E.; Nichols, J.D.

1999-01-01

We estimated annual survival of Snail Kites (Rostrhamus sociabilis) in Florida using the Kaplan-Meier estimator with data from 271 radio-tagged birds over a three-year period and capture-recapture (resighting) models with data from 1,319 banded birds over a six-year period. We tested the hypothesis that survival differed among three age classes using both data sources. We tested additional hypotheses about spatial and temporal variation using a combination of data from radio telemetry and single- and multistrata capture-recapture models. Results from these data sets were similar in their indications of the sources of variation in survival, but they differed in some parameter estimates. Both data sources indicated that survival was higher for adults than for juveniles, but they did not support delineation of a subadult age class. Our data also indicated that survival differed among years and regions for juveniles but not for adults. Estimates of juvenile survival using radio telemetry data were higher than estimates using capture-recapture models for two of three years (1992 and 1993). Ancillary evidence based on censored birds indicated that some mortality of radio-tagged juveniles went undetected during those years, resulting in biased estimates. Thus, we have greater confidence in our estimates of juvenile survival using capture-recapture models. Precision of estimates reflected the number of parameters estimated and was surprisingly similar between radio telemetry and single-stratum capture-recapture models, given the substantial differences in sample sizes. Not having to estimate resighting probability likely offsets, to some degree, the smaller sample sizes from our radio telemetry data. Precision of capture-recapture models was lower using multistrata models where region-specific parameters were estimated than using single-stratum models, where spatial variation in parameters was not taken into account.

Validation of abundance estimates from mark–recapture and removal techniques for rainbow trout captured by electrofishing in small streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rosenberger, Amanda E.; Dunham, Jason B.

2005-01-01

Estimation of fish abundance in streams using the removal model or the Lincoln - Peterson mark - recapture model is a common practice in fisheries. These models produce misleading results if their assumptions are violated. We evaluated the assumptions of these two models via electrofishing of rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss in central Idaho streams. For one-, two-, three-, and four-pass sampling effort in closed sites, we evaluated the influences of fish size and habitat characteristics on sampling efficiency and the accuracy of removal abundance estimates. We also examined the use of models to generate unbiased estimates of fish abundance through adjustment of total catch or biased removal estimates. Our results suggested that the assumptions of the mark - recapture model were satisfied and that abundance estimates based on this approach were unbiased. In contrast, the removal model assumptions were not met. Decreasing sampling efficiencies over removal passes resulted in underestimated population sizes and overestimates of sampling efficiency. This bias decreased, but was not eliminated, with increased sampling effort. Biased removal estimates based on different levels of effort were highly correlated with each other but were less correlated with unbiased mark - recapture estimates. Stream size decreased sampling efficiency, and stream size and instream wood increased the negative bias of removal estimates. We found that reliable estimates of population abundance could be obtained from models of sampling efficiency for different levels of effort. Validation of abundance estimates requires extra attention to routine sampling considerations but can help fisheries biologists avoid pitfalls associated with biased data and facilitate standardized comparisons among studies that employ different sampling methods.

Using satellite-based rainfall estimates for streamflow modelling: Bagmati Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shrestha, M.S.; Artan, Guleid A.; Bajracharya, S.R.; Sharma, R. R.

2008-01-01

In this study, we have described a hydrologic modelling system that uses satellite-based rainfall estimates and weather forecast data for the Bagmati River Basin of Nepal. The hydrologic model described is the US Geological Survey (USGS) Geospatial Stream Flow Model (GeoSFM). The GeoSFM is a spatially semidistributed, physically based hydrologic model. We have used the GeoSFM to estimate the streamflow of the Bagmati Basin at Pandhera Dovan hydrometric station. To determine the hydrologic connectivity, we have used the USGS Hydro1k DEM dataset. The model was forced by daily estimates of rainfall and evapotranspiration derived from weather model data. The rainfall estimates used for the modelling are those produced by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Centre and observed at ground rain gauge stations. The model parameters were estimated from globally available soil and land cover datasets – the Digital Soil Map of the World by FAO and the USGS Global Land Cover dataset. The model predicted the daily streamflow at Pandhera Dovan gauging station. The comparison of the simulated and observed flows at Pandhera Dovan showed that the GeoSFM model performed well in simulating the flows of the Bagmati Basin.

Estimating Escherichia coli loads in streams based on various physical, chemical, and biological factors

PubMed Central

Dwivedi, Dipankar; Mohanty, Binayak P.; Lesikar, Bruce J.

2013-01-01

Microbes have been identified as a major contaminant of water resources. Escherichia coli (E. coli) is a commonly used indicator organism. It is well recognized that the fate of E. coli in surface water systems is governed by multiple physical, chemical, and biological factors. The aim of this work is to provide insight into the physical, chemical, and biological factors along with their interactions that are critical in the estimation of E. coli loads in surface streams. There are various models to predict E. coli loads in streams, but they tend to be system or site specific or overly complex without enhancing our understanding of these factors. Hence, based on available data, a Bayesian Neural Network (BNN) is presented for estimating E. coli loads based on physical, chemical, and biological factors in streams. The BNN has the dual advantage of overcoming the absence of quality data (with regards to consistency in data) and determination of mechanistic model parameters by employing a probabilistic framework. This study evaluates whether the BNN model can be an effective alternative tool to mechanistic models for E. coli loads estimation in streams. For this purpose, a comparison with a traditional model (LOADEST, USGS) is conducted. The models are compared for estimated E. coli loads based on available water quality data in Plum Creek, Texas. All the model efficiency measures suggest that overall E. coli loads estimations by the BNN model are better than the E. coli loads estimations by the LOADEST model on all the three occasions (three-fold cross validation). Thirteen factors were used for estimating E. coli loads with the exhaustive feature selection technique, which indicated that six of thirteen factors are important for estimating E. coli loads. Physical factors included temperature and dissolved oxygen; chemical factors include phosphate and ammonia; biological factors include suspended solids and chlorophyll. The results highlight that the LOADEST model estimates E. coli loads better in the smaller ranges, whereas the BNN model estimates E. coli loads better in the higher ranges. Hence, the BNN model can be used to design targeted monitoring programs and implement regulatory standards through TMDL programs. PMID:24511166

Utilizing Adjoint-Based Error Estimates for Surrogate Models to Accurately Predict Probabilities of Events

DOE PAGES

Butler, Troy; Wildey, Timothy

2018-01-01

In thist study, we develop a procedure to utilize error estimates for samples of a surrogate model to compute robust upper and lower bounds on estimates of probabilities of events. We show that these error estimates can also be used in an adaptive algorithm to simultaneously reduce the computational cost and increase the accuracy in estimating probabilities of events using computationally expensive high-fidelity models. Specifically, we introduce the notion of reliability of a sample of a surrogate model, and we prove that utilizing the surrogate model for the reliable samples and the high-fidelity model for the unreliable samples gives preciselymore » the same estimate of the probability of the output event as would be obtained by evaluation of the original model for each sample. The adaptive algorithm uses the additional evaluations of the high-fidelity model for the unreliable samples to locally improve the surrogate model near the limit state, which significantly reduces the number of high-fidelity model evaluations as the limit state is resolved. Numerical results based on a recently developed adjoint-based approach for estimating the error in samples of a surrogate are provided to demonstrate (1) the robustness of the bounds on the probability of an event, and (2) that the adaptive enhancement algorithm provides a more accurate estimate of the probability of the QoI event than standard response surface approximation methods at a lower computational cost.« less

Utilizing Adjoint-Based Error Estimates for Surrogate Models to Accurately Predict Probabilities of Events

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Butler, Troy; Wildey, Timothy

In thist study, we develop a procedure to utilize error estimates for samples of a surrogate model to compute robust upper and lower bounds on estimates of probabilities of events. We show that these error estimates can also be used in an adaptive algorithm to simultaneously reduce the computational cost and increase the accuracy in estimating probabilities of events using computationally expensive high-fidelity models. Specifically, we introduce the notion of reliability of a sample of a surrogate model, and we prove that utilizing the surrogate model for the reliable samples and the high-fidelity model for the unreliable samples gives preciselymore » the same estimate of the probability of the output event as would be obtained by evaluation of the original model for each sample. The adaptive algorithm uses the additional evaluations of the high-fidelity model for the unreliable samples to locally improve the surrogate model near the limit state, which significantly reduces the number of high-fidelity model evaluations as the limit state is resolved. Numerical results based on a recently developed adjoint-based approach for estimating the error in samples of a surrogate are provided to demonstrate (1) the robustness of the bounds on the probability of an event, and (2) that the adaptive enhancement algorithm provides a more accurate estimate of the probability of the QoI event than standard response surface approximation methods at a lower computational cost.« less

Properties of model-averaged BMDLs: a study of model averaging in dichotomous response risk estimation.

PubMed

Wheeler, Matthew W; Bailer, A John

2007-06-01

Model averaging (MA) has been proposed as a method of accounting for model uncertainty in benchmark dose (BMD) estimation. The technique has been used to average BMD dose estimates derived from dichotomous dose-response experiments, microbial dose-response experiments, as well as observational epidemiological studies. While MA is a promising tool for the risk assessor, a previous study suggested that the simple strategy of averaging individual models' BMD lower limits did not yield interval estimators that met nominal coverage levels in certain situations, and this performance was very sensitive to the underlying model space chosen. We present a different, more computationally intensive, approach in which the BMD is estimated using the average dose-response model and the corresponding benchmark dose lower bound (BMDL) is computed by bootstrapping. This method is illustrated with TiO(2) dose-response rat lung cancer data, and then systematically studied through an extensive Monte Carlo simulation. The results of this study suggest that the MA-BMD, estimated using this technique, performs better, in terms of bias and coverage, than the previous MA methodology. Further, the MA-BMDL achieves nominal coverage in most cases, and is superior to picking the "best fitting model" when estimating the benchmark dose. Although these results show utility of MA for benchmark dose risk estimation, they continue to highlight the importance of choosing an adequate model space as well as proper model fit diagnostics.

GEE-Smoothing Spline in Semiparametric Model with Correlated Nominal Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ibrahim, Noor Akma; Suliadi

2010-11-01

In this paper we propose GEE-Smoothing spline in the estimation of semiparametric models with correlated nominal data. The method can be seen as an extension of parametric generalized estimating equation to semiparametric models. The nonparametric component is estimated using smoothing spline specifically the natural cubic spline. We use profile algorithm in the estimation of both parametric and nonparametric components. The properties of the estimators are evaluated using simulation studies.

Aqueous and Tissue Residue-Based Interspecies Correlation Estimation Models Provide Conservative Hazard Estimates for Aromatic Compounds

EPA Science Inventory

Interspecies correlation estimation (ICE) models were developed for 30 nonpolar aromatic compounds to allow comparison of prediction accuracy between 2 data compilation approaches. Type 1 models used data combined across studies, and type 2 models used data combined only within s...

Cost Estimation of Naval Ship Acquisition.

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-12-01

one a 9-sub- system model , the other a single total cost model . The models were developed using the linear least squares regression tech- nique with...to Linear Statistical Models , McGraw-Hill, 1961. 11. Helmer, F. T., Bibliography on Pricing Methodology and Cost Estimating, Dept. of Economics and...SUPPI.EMSaTARY NOTES IS. KWRo" (Cowaft. en tever aide of ..aesep M’ Idab~t 6 Week ONNa.) Cost estimation; Acquisition; Parametric cost estimate; linear

Estimating the Probability of Rare Events Occurring Using a Local Model Averaging.

PubMed

Chen, Jin-Hua; Chen, Chun-Shu; Huang, Meng-Fan; Lin, Hung-Chih

2016-10-01

In statistical applications, logistic regression is a popular method for analyzing binary data accompanied by explanatory variables. But when one of the two outcomes is rare, the estimation of model parameters has been shown to be severely biased and hence estimating the probability of rare events occurring based on a logistic regression model would be inaccurate. In this article, we focus on estimating the probability of rare events occurring based on logistic regression models. Instead of selecting a best model, we propose a local model averaging procedure based on a data perturbation technique applied to different information criteria to obtain different probability estimates of rare events occurring. Then an approximately unbiased estimator of Kullback-Leibler loss is used to choose the best one among them. We design complete simulations to show the effectiveness of our approach. For illustration, a necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) data set is analyzed. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Methods for estimating population density in data-limited areas: evaluating regression and tree-based models in Peru.

PubMed

Anderson, Weston; Guikema, Seth; Zaitchik, Ben; Pan, William

2014-01-01

Obtaining accurate small area estimates of population is essential for policy and health planning but is often difficult in countries with limited data. In lieu of available population data, small area estimate models draw information from previous time periods or from similar areas. This study focuses on model-based methods for estimating population when no direct samples are available in the area of interest. To explore the efficacy of tree-based models for estimating population density, we compare six different model structures including Random Forest and Bayesian Additive Regression Trees. Results demonstrate that without information from prior time periods, non-parametric tree-based models produced more accurate predictions than did conventional regression methods. Improving estimates of population density in non-sampled areas is important for regions with incomplete census data and has implications for economic, health and development policies.

Methods for Estimating Population Density in Data-Limited Areas: Evaluating Regression and Tree-Based Models in Peru

PubMed Central

Anderson, Weston; Guikema, Seth; Zaitchik, Ben; Pan, William

2014-01-01

Obtaining accurate small area estimates of population is essential for policy and health planning but is often difficult in countries with limited data. In lieu of available population data, small area estimate models draw information from previous time periods or from similar areas. This study focuses on model-based methods for estimating population when no direct samples are available in the area of interest. To explore the efficacy of tree-based models for estimating population density, we compare six different model structures including Random Forest and Bayesian Additive Regression Trees. Results demonstrate that without information from prior time periods, non-parametric tree-based models produced more accurate predictions than did conventional regression methods. Improving estimates of population density in non-sampled areas is important for regions with incomplete census data and has implications for economic, health and development policies. PMID:24992657

Model Effects on GLAS-Based Regional Estimates of Forest Biomass and Carbon

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nelson, Ross

2008-01-01

ICESat/GLAS waveform data are used to estimate biomass and carbon on a 1.27 million sq km study area. the Province of Quebec, Canada, below treeline. The same input data sets and sampling design are used in conjunction with four different predictive models to estimate total aboveground dry forest biomass and forest carbon. The four models include nonstratified and stratified versions of a multiple linear model where either biomass or (square root of) biomass serves as the dependent variable. The use of different models in Quebec introduces differences in Provincial biomass estimates of up to 0.35 Gt (range 4.942+/-0.28 Gt to 5.29+/-0.36 Gt). The results suggest that if different predictive models are used to estimate regional carbon stocks in different epochs, e.g., y2005, y2015, one might mistakenly infer an apparent aboveground carbon "change" of, in this case, 0.18 Gt, or approximately 7% of the aboveground carbon in Quebec, due solely to the use of different predictive models. These findings argue for model consistency in future, LiDAR-based carbon monitoring programs. Regional biomass estimates from the four GLAS models are compared to ground estimates derived from an extensive network of 16,814 ground plots located in southern Quebec. Stratified models proved to be more accurate and precise than either of the two nonstratified models tested.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Y.; Liu, Z.; Zhang, S.

Parameter estimation provides a potentially powerful approach to reduce model bias for complex climate models. Here, in a twin experiment framework, the authors perform the first parameter estimation in a fully coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model using an ensemble coupled data assimilation system facilitated with parameter estimation. The authors first perform single-parameter estimation and then multiple-parameter estimation. In the case of the single-parameter estimation, the error of the parameter [solar penetration depth (SPD)] is reduced by over 90% after ~40 years of assimilation of the conventional observations of monthly sea surface temperature (SST) and salinity (SSS). The results of multiple-parametermore » estimation are less reliable than those of single-parameter estimation when only the monthly SST and SSS are assimilated. Assimilating additional observations of atmospheric data of temperature and wind improves the reliability of multiple-parameter estimation. The errors of the parameters are reduced by 90% in ~8 years of assimilation. Finally, the improved parameters also improve the model climatology. With the optimized parameters, the bias of the climatology of SST is reduced by ~90%. Altogether, this study suggests the feasibility of ensemble-based parameter estimation in a fully coupled general circulation model.« less

Unbiased multi-fidelity estimate of failure probability of a free plane jet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marques, Alexandre; Kramer, Boris; Willcox, Karen; Peherstorfer, Benjamin

2017-11-01

Estimating failure probability related to fluid flows is a challenge because it requires a large number of evaluations of expensive models. We address this challenge by leveraging multiple low fidelity models of the flow dynamics to create an optimal unbiased estimator. In particular, we investigate the effects of uncertain inlet conditions in the width of a free plane jet. We classify a condition as failure when the corresponding jet width is below a small threshold, such that failure is a rare event (failure probability is smaller than 0.001). We estimate failure probability by combining the frameworks of multi-fidelity importance sampling and optimal fusion of estimators. Multi-fidelity importance sampling uses a low fidelity model to explore the parameter space and create a biasing distribution. An unbiased estimate is then computed with a relatively small number of evaluations of the high fidelity model. In the presence of multiple low fidelity models, this framework offers multiple competing estimators. Optimal fusion combines all competing estimators into a single estimator with minimal variance. We show that this combined framework can significantly reduce the cost of estimating failure probabilities, and thus can have a large impact in fluid flow applications. This work was funded by DARPA.

Estimating Environmental Compliance Costs for Industry (1981)

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The paper discusses the pros and cons of existing approaches to compliance cost estimation such as ex post survey estimation and ex ante estimation techniques (input cost accounting methods, engineering process models and, econometric models).

Estimating restricted mean treatment effects with stacked survival models

PubMed Central

Wey, Andrew; Vock, David M.; Connett, John; Rudser, Kyle

2016-01-01

The difference in restricted mean survival times between two groups is a clinically relevant summary measure. With observational data, there may be imbalances in confounding variables between the two groups. One approach to account for such imbalances is estimating a covariate-adjusted restricted mean difference by modeling the covariate-adjusted survival distribution, and then marginalizing over the covariate distribution. Since the estimator for the restricted mean difference is defined by the estimator for the covariate-adjusted survival distribution, it is natural to expect that a better estimator of the covariate-adjusted survival distribution is associated with a better estimator of the restricted mean difference. We therefore propose estimating restricted mean differences with stacked survival models. Stacked survival models estimate a weighted average of several survival models by minimizing predicted error. By including a range of parametric, semi-parametric, and non-parametric models, stacked survival models can robustly estimate a covariate-adjusted survival distribution and, therefore, the restricted mean treatment effect in a wide range of scenarios. We demonstrate through a simulation study that better performance of the covariate-adjusted survival distribution often leads to better mean-squared error of the restricted mean difference although there are notable exceptions. In addition, we demonstrate that the proposed estimator can perform nearly as well as Cox regression when the proportional hazards assumption is satisfied and significantly better when proportional hazards is violated. Finally, the proposed estimator is illustrated with data from the United Network for Organ Sharing to evaluate post-lung transplant survival between large and small-volume centers. PMID:26934835

Comparing Three Estimation Methods for the Three-Parameter Logistic IRT Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lamsal, Sunil

2015-01-01

Different estimation procedures have been developed for the unidimensional three-parameter item response theory (IRT) model. These techniques include the marginal maximum likelihood estimation, the fully Bayesian estimation using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation techniques, and the Metropolis-Hastings Robbin-Monro estimation. With each…

Development of sustainable precision farming systems for swine: estimating real-time individual amino acid requirements in growing-finishing pigs.

PubMed

Hauschild, L; Lovatto, P A; Pomar, J; Pomar, C

2012-07-01

The objective of this study was to develop and evaluate a mathematical model used to estimate the daily amino acid requirements of individual growing-finishing pigs. The model includes empirical and mechanistic model components. The empirical component estimates daily feed intake (DFI), BW, and daily gain (DG) based on individual pig information collected in real time. Based on DFI, BW, and DG estimates, the mechanistic component uses classic factorial equations to estimate the optimal concentration of amino acids that must be offered to each pig to meet its requirements. The model was evaluated with data from a study that investigated the effect of feeding pigs with a 3-phase or daily multiphase system. The DFI and BW values measured in this study were compared with those estimated by the empirical component of the model. The coherence of the values estimated by the mechanistic component was evaluated by analyzing if it followed a normal pattern of requirements. Lastly, the proposed model was evaluated by comparing its estimates with those generated by the existing growth model (InraPorc). The precision of the proposed model and InraPorc in estimating DFI and BW was evaluated through the mean absolute error. The empirical component results indicated that the DFI and BW trajectories of individual pigs fed ad libitum could be predicted 1 d (DFI) or 7 d (BW) ahead with the average mean absolute error of 12.45 and 1.85%, respectively. The average mean absolute error obtained with the InraPorc for the average individual of the population was 14.72% for DFI and 5.38% for BW. Major differences were observed when estimates from InraPorc were compared with individual observations. The proposed model, however, was effective in tracking the change in DFI and BW for each individual pig. The mechanistic model component estimated the optimal standardized ileal digestible Lys to NE ratio with reasonable between animal (average CV = 7%) and overtime (average CV = 14%) variation. Thus, the amino acid requirements estimated by model are animal- and time-dependent and follow, in real time, the individual DFI and BW growth patterns. The proposed model can follow the average feed intake and feed weight trajectory of each individual pig in real time with good accuracy. Based on these trajectories and using classical factorial equations, the model makes it possible to estimate dynamically the AA requirements of each animal, taking into account the intake and growth changes of the animal.

Application of IEM model on soil moisture and surface roughness estimation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shi, Jiancheng; Wang, J. R.; Oneill, P. E.; Hsu, A. Y.; Engman, E. T.

1995-01-01

Monitoring spatial and temporal changes of soil moisture are of importance to hydrology, meteorology, and agriculture. This paper reports a result on study of using L-band SAR imagery to estimate soil moisture and surface roughness for bare fields. Due to limitations of the Small Perturbation Model, it is difficult to apply this model on estimation of soil moisture and surface roughness directly. In this study, we show a simplified model derived from the Integral Equation Model for estimation of soil moisture and surface roughness. We show a test of this model using JPL L-band AIRSAR data.

A simulation of water pollution model parameter estimation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kibler, J. F.

1976-01-01

A parameter estimation procedure for a water pollution transport model is elaborated. A two-dimensional instantaneous-release shear-diffusion model serves as representative of a simple transport process. Pollution concentration levels are arrived at via modeling of a remote-sensing system. The remote-sensed data are simulated by adding Gaussian noise to the concentration level values generated via the transport model. Model parameters are estimated from the simulated data using a least-squares batch processor. Resolution, sensor array size, and number and location of sensor readings can be found from the accuracies of the parameter estimates.

Investigating the effects of the fixed and varying dispersion parameters of Poisson-gamma models on empirical Bayes estimates.

PubMed

Lord, Dominique; Park, Peter Young-Jin

2008-07-01

Traditionally, transportation safety analysts have used the empirical Bayes (EB) method to improve the estimate of the long-term mean of individual sites; to correct for the regression-to-the-mean (RTM) bias in before-after studies; and to identify hotspots or high risk locations. The EB method combines two different sources of information: (1) the expected number of crashes estimated via crash prediction models, and (2) the observed number of crashes at individual sites. Crash prediction models have traditionally been estimated using a negative binomial (NB) (or Poisson-gamma) modeling framework due to the over-dispersion commonly found in crash data. A weight factor is used to assign the relative influence of each source of information on the EB estimate. This factor is estimated using the mean and variance functions of the NB model. With recent trends that illustrated the dispersion parameter to be dependent upon the covariates of NB models, especially for traffic flow-only models, as well as varying as a function of different time-periods, there is a need to determine how these models may affect EB estimates. The objectives of this study are to examine how commonly used functional forms as well as fixed and time-varying dispersion parameters affect the EB estimates. To accomplish the study objectives, several traffic flow-only crash prediction models were estimated using a sample of rural three-legged intersections located in California. Two types of aggregated and time-specific models were produced: (1) the traditional NB model with a fixed dispersion parameter and (2) the generalized NB model (GNB) with a time-varying dispersion parameter, which is also dependent upon the covariates of the model. Several statistical methods were used to compare the fitting performance of the various functional forms. The results of the study show that the selection of the functional form of NB models has an important effect on EB estimates both in terms of estimated values, weight factors, and dispersion parameters. Time-specific models with a varying dispersion parameter provide better statistical performance in terms of goodness-of-fit (GOF) than aggregated multi-year models. Furthermore, the identification of hazardous sites, using the EB method, can be significantly affected when a GNB model with a time-varying dispersion parameter is used. Thus, erroneously selecting a functional form may lead to select the wrong sites for treatment. The study concludes that transportation safety analysts should not automatically use an existing functional form for modeling motor vehicle crashes without conducting rigorous analyses to estimate the most appropriate functional form linking crashes with traffic flow.

Estimating the remaining useful life of bearings using a neuro-local linear estimator-based method.

PubMed

Ahmad, Wasim; Ali Khan, Sheraz; Kim, Jong-Myon

2017-05-01

Estimating the remaining useful life (RUL) of a bearing is required for maintenance scheduling. While the degradation behavior of a bearing changes during its lifetime, it is usually assumed to follow a single model. In this letter, bearing degradation is modeled by a monotonically increasing function that is globally non-linear and locally linearized. The model is generated using historical data that is smoothed with a local linear estimator. A neural network learns this model and then predicts future levels of vibration acceleration to estimate the RUL of a bearing. The proposed method yields reasonably accurate estimates of the RUL of a bearing at different points during its operational life.

Comparing estimates of genetic variance across different relationship models.

PubMed

Legarra, Andres

2016-02-01

Use of relationships between individuals to estimate genetic variances and heritabilities via mixed models is standard practice in human, plant and livestock genetics. Different models or information for relationships may give different estimates of genetic variances. However, comparing these estimates across different relationship models is not straightforward as the implied base populations differ between relationship models. In this work, I present a method to compare estimates of variance components across different relationship models. I suggest referring genetic variances obtained using different relationship models to the same reference population, usually a set of individuals in the population. Expected genetic variance of this population is the estimated variance component from the mixed model times a statistic, Dk, which is the average self-relationship minus the average (self- and across-) relationship. For most typical models of relationships, Dk is close to 1. However, this is not true for very deep pedigrees, for identity-by-state relationships, or for non-parametric kernels, which tend to overestimate the genetic variance and the heritability. Using mice data, I show that heritabilities from identity-by-state and kernel-based relationships are overestimated. Weighting these estimates by Dk scales them to a base comparable to genomic or pedigree relationships, avoiding wrong comparisons, for instance, "missing heritabilities". Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Optimal post-experiment estimation of poorly modeled dynamic systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mook, D. Joseph

1988-01-01

Recently, a novel strategy for post-experiment state estimation of discretely-measured dynamic systems has been developed. The method accounts for errors in the system dynamic model equations in a more general and rigorous manner than do filter-smoother algorithms. The dynamic model error terms do not require the usual process noise assumptions of zero-mean, symmetrically distributed random disturbances. Instead, the model error terms require no prior assumptions other than piecewise continuity. The resulting state estimates are more accurate than filters for applications in which the dynamic model error clearly violates the typical process noise assumptions, and the available measurements are sparse and/or noisy. Estimates of the dynamic model error, in addition to the states, are obtained as part of the solution of a two-point boundary value problem, and may be exploited for numerous reasons. In this paper, the basic technique is explained, and several example applications are given. Included among the examples are both state estimation and exploitation of the model error estimates.

Modeling Of In-Vehicle Human Exposure to Ambient Fine Particulate Matter

PubMed Central

Liu, Xiaozhen; Frey, H. Christopher

2012-01-01

A method for estimating in-vehicle PM2.5 exposure as part of a scenario-based population simulation model is developed and assessed. In existing models, such as the Stochastic Exposure and Dose Simulation model for Particulate Matter (SHEDS-PM), in-vehicle exposure is estimated using linear regression based on area-wide ambient PM2.5 concentration. An alternative modeling approach is explored based on estimation of near-road PM2.5 concentration and an in-vehicle mass balance. Near-road PM2.5 concentration is estimated using a dispersion model and fixed site monitor (FSM) data. In-vehicle concentration is estimated based on air exchange rate and filter efficiency. In-vehicle concentration varies with road type, traffic flow, windspeed, stability class, and ventilation. Average in-vehicle exposure is estimated to contribute 10 to 20 percent of average daily exposure. The contribution of in-vehicle exposure to total daily exposure can be higher for some individuals. Recommendations are made for updating exposure models and implementation of the alternative approach. PMID:23101000

Estimation of suspended-sediment rating curves and mean suspended-sediment loads

USGS Publications Warehouse

Crawford, Charles G.

1991-01-01

A simulation study was done to evaluate: (1) the accuracy and precision of parameter estimates for the bias-corrected, transformed-linear and non-linear models obtained by the method of least squares; (2) the accuracy of mean suspended-sediment loads calculated by the flow-duration, rating-curve method using model parameters obtained by the alternative methods. Parameter estimates obtained by least squares for the bias-corrected, transformed-linear model were considerably more precise than those obtained for the non-linear or weighted non-linear model. The accuracy of parameter estimates obtained for the biascorrected, transformed-linear and weighted non-linear model was similar and was much greater than the accuracy obtained by non-linear least squares. The improved parameter estimates obtained by the biascorrected, transformed-linear or weighted non-linear model yield estimates of mean suspended-sediment load calculated by the flow-duration, rating-curve method that are more accurate and precise than those obtained for the non-linear model.

Decision Support system- DSS- for irrigation management in greenhouses: a case study in Campania Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monaco, Eugenia; De Mascellis, Roberto; Riccardi, Maria; Basile, Angelo; D'Urso, Guido; Magliulo, Vincenzo; Tedeschi, Anna

2016-04-01

In Mediterranean Countries the proper management of water resources is important for the preservation of actual production systems. The possibility to manage water resources is possible especially in the greenhouses systems. The challenge to manage the soil in greenhouse farm can be a strategy to maintain both current production systems both soil conservation. In Campania region protected crops (greenhouses and tunnels) have a considerable economic importance both for their extension in terms of surface harvested and also for their production in terms of yields. Agricultural production in greenhouse is closely related to the micro-climatic condition but also to the physical and agronomic characteristics of the soil-crop system. The protected crops have an high level of technology compare to the other production systems, but the irrigation management is still carried out according to empirical criteria. The rational management of the production process requires an appropriate control of climatic parameters (temperature, humidity, wind) and agronomical inputs (irrigation, fertilization,). All these factors need to be monitored as well is possible, in order to identify the optimal irrigation schedule. The aim of this work is to implement a Decision Support system -DSS- for irrigation management in greenhouses focused on a smart irrigation control based on observation of the agro-climatic parameters monitored with an advanced wireless sensors network. The study is conducted in a greenhouse farm of 6 ha located in the district of Salerno were seven plots were cropped with rocket. Preliminary a study of soils proprieties was conducted in order to identify spatial variability of the soil in the farm. So undisturbed soil samples were collected to define chemical and physical proprieties; moreover soil hydraulic properties were determined for two soils profiles deemed representation of the farm. Then the wireless sensors, installed at different depth in the soils, determined volumetric water content (VWC) by measuring the dielectric constant of the soil using frequency domain technology (FDR). The data acquired real time were used to determine water balance with a physically based model Hydrus 1D. The results show how the model is able to identify the optimal irrigation schedule as function of soil proprieties and crop needs. Keywords: irrigation, DSS, rocket, water content

Life on the rocks: Multilocus phylogeography of rock hyrax (Procavia capensis) from southern Africa.

PubMed

Maswanganye, K Amanda; Cunningham, Michael J; Bennett, Nigel C; Chimimba, Christian T; Bloomer, Paulette

2017-09-01

Understanding the role of geography and climatic cycles in determining patterns of biodiversity is important in comparative and evolutionary biology and conservation. We studied the phylogeographic pattern and historical demography of a rock-dwelling small mammal species from southern Africa, the rock hyrax Procavia capensis capensis. Using a multilocus coalescent approach, we assessed the influence of strong habitat dependence and fluctuating regional climates on genetic diversity. We sequenced a mitochondrial gene (cytochrome b) and two nuclear introns (AP5, PRKC1) supplemented with microsatellite genotyping, in order to assess evolutionary processes over multiple temporal scales. In addition, distribution modelling was used to investigate the current and predicted distribution of the species under different climatic scenarios. Collectively, the data reveal a complex history of isolation followed by secondary contact shaping the current intraspecific diversity. The cyt b sequences confirmed the presence of two previously proposed geographically and genetically distinct lineages distributed across the southern African Great Escarpment and north-western mountain ranges. Molecular dating suggests Miocene divergence of the lineages, yet there are no discernible extrinsic barriers to gene flow. The nuclear markers reveal incomplete lineage sorting or ongoing mixing of the two lineages. Although the microsatellite data lend some support to the presence of two subpopulations, there is weak structuring within and between lineages. These data indicate the presence of gene flow from the northern into the southern parts of the southern African sub-region likely following the secondary contact. The distribution modelling predictably reveal the species' preference for rocky areas, with stable refugia through time in the northern mountain ranges, the Great Escarpment, as well as restricted areas of the Northern Cape Province and the Cape Fold Mountains of South Africa. Different microclimatic variables appear to determine the distributional range of the species. Despite strong habitat preference, the micro-habitat offered by rocky crevices and unique life history traits likely promoted the adaptability of P. capensis, resulting in the widespread distribution and persistence of the species over a long evolutionary period. Spatio-temporal comparison of the evolutionary histories of other co-distributed species across the rocky landscapes of southern Africa will improve our understanding of the regional patterns of biodiversity and local endemism. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Observed response of vulnerable forest ecosystems to ongoing site condition changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bidló, András; Gulyás, Krisztina; Gálos, Borbála; Horváth, Adrienn

2017-04-01

In the last decades, several symptoms of drought damages have been observed in the Hungarian forests (e.g. sparse canopy, leaf drop, top drying, fungal diseases). Forest responses are also influenced by other factors beyond climate (e.g. available water content, soil conditions, biotic damages, adaptive capacity, etc.). Our aim was to prepare a complex analysis of the change of all site conditions, that could lead to the observed health status decline of the forest tree species. For a case study region in Hungary (Keszthely Mountains, near to Lake Balaton) precipitation and temperature tendencies as well as the frequency of extreme dry summers have been determined for the period 1961-2100. Soil conditions have been investigated in 9 profiles and soil mapping analysis has been carried out including 100 sites with hand soil auger. For the investigation of the water-balance we used the modified Thornthwaite-type monthly model and determined water stress when the relative extractable water (REW) decreased below 40% (Granier et al., 1999). In the last 30 years three severe droughts have been detected when duration of extremely dry and hot periods exceeded 3-4 years. Not only orographic and microclimate conditions but also soil types show a large diversity within a relatively small distance in the case study area. On rendzina with shallow topsoil layer thickness, low water holding capacity, black pine was planted. Brown earth with medium and brown forest soils with deep topsoil layer thickness is favourable for oak (sessile or Turkey) and beech. These microscale differences between the three site condition types resulted different available water contents quantified by the modified Thornthwaite-type monthly water-balance model. Our results show the different sensitivity of the studied sites to water stress. It means that the local scale orographic and soil conditions can enhance the projected drought risk of the region. However, the favourable microclimatic effects of the existing forest stands are still a knowledge gap and the topic of the ongoing research. The research is supported by the "Agroclimate-2" (VKSZ_12-1-2013-0034) joint EU-national research project and by the ÚNKP-16-4-3 New National Excellence Program of the Ministry of Human Capacities. Keywords: climate extremes, changing site conditions, water stress

K-Means Subject Matter Expert Refined Topic Model Methodology

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-01-01

Refined Topic Model Methodology Topic Model Estimation via K-Means U.S. Army TRADOC Analysis Center-Monterey 700 Dyer Road...January 2017 K-means Subject Matter Expert Refined Topic Model Methodology Topic Model Estimation via K-Means Theodore T. Allen, Ph.D. Zhenhuan...Matter Expert Refined Topic Model Methodology Topic Model Estimation via K-means 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER W9124N-15-P-0022 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c

Testing the sensitivity of terrestrial carbon models using remotely sensed biomass estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hashimoto, H.; Saatchi, S. S.; Meyer, V.; Milesi, C.; Wang, W.; Ganguly, S.; Zhang, G.; Nemani, R. R.

2010-12-01

There is a large uncertainty in carbon allocation and biomass accumulation in forest ecosystems. With the recent availability of remotely sensed biomass estimates, we now can test some of the hypotheses commonly implemented in various ecosystem models. We used biomass estimates derived by integrating MODIS, GLAS and PALSAR data to verify above-ground biomass estimates simulated by a number of ecosystem models (CASA, BIOME-BGC, BEAMS, LPJ). This study extends the hierarchical framework (Wang et al., 2010) for diagnosing ecosystem models by incorporating independent estimates of biomass for testing and calibrating respiration, carbon allocation, turn-over algorithms or parameters.

Use of models in large-area forest surveys: comparing model-assisted, model-based and hybrid estimation

Treesearch

Goran Stahl; Svetlana Saarela; Sebastian Schnell; Soren Holm; Johannes Breidenbach; Sean P. Healey; Paul L. Patterson; Steen Magnussen; Erik Naesset; Ronald E. McRoberts; Timothy G. Gregoire

2016-01-01

This paper focuses on the use of models for increasing the precision of estimators in large-area forest surveys. It is motivated by the increasing availability of remotely sensed data, which facilitates the development of models predicting the variables of interest in forest surveys. We present, review and compare three different estimation frameworks where...

Maximum likelihood estimation of finite mixture model for economic data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Phoong, Seuk-Yen; Ismail, Mohd Tahir

2014-06-01

Finite mixture model is a mixture model with finite-dimension. This models are provides a natural representation of heterogeneity in a finite number of latent classes. In addition, finite mixture models also known as latent class models or unsupervised learning models. Recently, maximum likelihood estimation fitted finite mixture models has greatly drawn statistician's attention. The main reason is because maximum likelihood estimation is a powerful statistical method which provides consistent findings as the sample sizes increases to infinity. Thus, the application of maximum likelihood estimation is used to fit finite mixture model in the present paper in order to explore the relationship between nonlinear economic data. In this paper, a two-component normal mixture model is fitted by maximum likelihood estimation in order to investigate the relationship among stock market price and rubber price for sampled countries. Results described that there is a negative effect among rubber price and stock market price for Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines and Indonesia.

Modeling Global Biogenic Emission of Isoprene: Exploration of Model Drivers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Alexander, Susan E.; Potter, Christopher S.; Coughlan, Joseph C.; Klooster, Steven A.; Lerdau, Manuel T.; Chatfield, Robert B.; Peterson, David L. (Technical Monitor)

1996-01-01

Vegetation provides the major source of isoprene emission to the atmosphere. We present a modeling approach to estimate global biogenic isoprene emission. The isoprene flux model is linked to a process-based computer simulation model of biogenic trace-gas fluxes that operates on scales that link regional and global data sets and ecosystem nutrient transformations Isoprene emission estimates are determined from estimates of ecosystem specific biomass, emission factors, and algorithms based on light and temperature. Our approach differs from an existing modeling framework by including the process-based global model for terrestrial ecosystem production, satellite derived ecosystem classification, and isoprene emission measurements from a tropical deciduous forest. We explore the sensitivity of model estimates to input parameters. The resulting emission products from the global 1 degree x 1 degree coverage provided by the satellite datasets and the process model allow flux estimations across large spatial scales and enable direct linkage to atmospheric models of trace-gas transport and transformation.

Analysis and Management of Animal Populations: Modeling, Estimation and Decision Making

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams, B.K.; Nichols, J.D.; Conroy, M.J.

2002-01-01

This book deals with the processes involved in making informed decisions about the management of animal populations. It covers the modeling of population responses to management actions, the estimation of quantities needed in the modeling effort, and the application of these estimates and models to the development of sound management decisions. The book synthesizes and integrates in a single volume the methods associated with these themes, as they apply to ecological assessment and conservation of animal populations. KEY FEATURES * Integrates population modeling, parameter estimation and * decision-theoretic approaches to management in a single, cohesive framework * Provides authoritative, state-of-the-art descriptions of quantitative * approaches to modeling, estimation and decision-making * Emphasizes the role of mathematical modeling in the conduct of science * and management * Utilizes a unifying biological context, consistent mathematical notation, * and numerous biological examples

Using Robust Variance Estimation to Combine Multiple Regression Estimates with Meta-Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Williams, Ryan

2013-01-01

The purpose of this study was to explore the use of robust variance estimation for combining commonly specified multiple regression models and for combining sample-dependent focal slope estimates from diversely specified models. The proposed estimator obviates traditionally required information about the covariance structure of the dependent…

Lidar-Based Estimates of Above-Ground Biomass in the Continental US and Mexico Using Ground, Airborne, and Satellite Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nelson, Ross; Margolis, Hank; Montesano, Paul; Sun, Guoqing; Cook, Bruce; Corp, Larry; Andersen, Hans-Erik; DeJong, Ben; Pellat, Fernando Paz; Fickel, Thaddeus;

Valuation of National Park System Visitation: The Efficient Use of Count Data Models, Meta-Analysis, and Secondary Visitor Survey Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neher, Christopher; Duffield, John; Patterson, David

2013-09-01

The National Park Service (NPS) currently manages a large and diverse system of park units nationwide which received an estimated 279 million recreational visits in 2011. This article uses park visitor data collected by the NPS Visitor Services Project to estimate a consistent set of count data travel cost models of park visitor willingness to pay (WTP). Models were estimated using 58 different park unit survey datasets. WTP estimates for these 58 park surveys were used within a meta-regression analysis model to predict average and total WTP for NPS recreational visitation system-wide. Estimated WTP per NPS visit in 2011 averaged 102 system-wide, and ranged across park units from 67 to 288. Total 2011 visitor WTP for the NPS system is estimated at 28.5 billion with a 95% confidence interval of 19.7-43.1 billion. The estimation of a meta-regression model using consistently collected data and identical specification of visitor WTP models greatly reduces problems common to meta-regression models, including sample selection bias, primary data heterogeneity, and heteroskedasticity, as well as some aspects of panel effects. The article provides the first estimate of total annual NPS visitor WTP within the literature directly based on NPS visitor survey data.

Estimating demographic parameters using a combination of known-fate and open N-mixture models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schmidt, Joshua H.; Johnson, Devin S.; Lindberg, Mark S.; Adams, Layne G.

2015-01-01

Accurate estimates of demographic parameters are required to infer appropriate ecological relationships and inform management actions. Known-fate data from marked individuals are commonly used to estimate survival rates, whereas N-mixture models use count data from unmarked individuals to estimate multiple demographic parameters. However, a joint approach combining the strengths of both analytical tools has not been developed. Here we develop an integrated model combining known-fate and open N-mixture models, allowing the estimation of detection probability, recruitment, and the joint estimation of survival. We demonstrate our approach through both simulations and an applied example using four years of known-fate and pack count data for wolves (Canis lupus). Simulation results indicated that the integrated model reliably recovered parameters with no evidence of bias, and survival estimates were more precise under the joint model. Results from the applied example indicated that the marked sample of wolves was biased toward individuals with higher apparent survival rates than the unmarked pack mates, suggesting that joint estimates may be more representative of the overall population. Our integrated model is a practical approach for reducing bias while increasing precision and the amount of information gained from mark–resight data sets. We provide implementations in both the BUGS language and an R package.

Estimating demographic parameters using a combination of known-fate and open N-mixture models.

PubMed

Schmidt, Joshua H; Johnson, Devin S; Lindberg, Mark S; Adams, Layne G

2015-10-01

Accurate estimates of demographic parameters are required to infer appropriate ecological relationships and inform management actions. Known-fate data from marked individuals are commonly used to estimate survival rates, whereas N-mixture models use count data from unmarked individuals to estimate multiple demographic parameters. However, a joint approach combining the strengths of both analytical tools has not been developed. Here we develop an integrated model combining known-fate and open N-mixture models, allowing the estimation of detection probability, recruitment, and the joint estimation of survival. We demonstrate our approach through both simulations and an applied example using four years of known-fate and pack count data for wolves (Canis lupus). Simulation results indicated that the integrated model reliably recovered parameters with no evidence of bias, and survival estimates were more precise under the joint model. Results from the applied example indicated that the marked sample of wolves was biased toward individuals with higher apparent survival rates than the unmarked pack mates, suggesting that joint estimates may be more representative of the overall population. Our integrated model is a practical approach for reducing bias while increasing precision and the amount of information gained from mark-resight data sets. We provide implementations in both the BUGS language and an R package.

A Bayes linear Bayes method for estimation of correlated event rates.

PubMed

Quigley, John; Wilson, Kevin J; Walls, Lesley; Bedford, Tim

2013-12-01

Typically, full Bayesian estimation of correlated event rates can be computationally challenging since estimators are intractable. When estimation of event rates represents one activity within a larger modeling process, there is an incentive to develop more efficient inference than provided by a full Bayesian model. We develop a new subjective inference method for correlated event rates based on a Bayes linear Bayes model under the assumption that events are generated from a homogeneous Poisson process. To reduce the elicitation burden we introduce homogenization factors to the model and, as an alternative to a subjective prior, an empirical method using the method of moments is developed. Inference under the new method is compared against estimates obtained under a full Bayesian model, which takes a multivariate gamma prior, where the predictive and posterior distributions are derived in terms of well-known functions. The mathematical properties of both models are presented. A simulation study shows that the Bayes linear Bayes inference method and the full Bayesian model provide equally reliable estimates. An illustrative example, motivated by a problem of estimating correlated event rates across different users in a simple supply chain, shows how ignoring the correlation leads to biased estimation of event rates. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

Estimating the relative contributions of human withdrawals and climate variability to changes in groundwater

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swenson, S. C.; Lawrence, D. M.

2014-12-01

Estimating the relative contributions of human withdrawals and climate variability to changes in groundwater is a challenging task at present. One method that has been used recently is a model-data synthesis combining GRACE total water storage estimates with simulated water storage estimates from land surface models. In this method, water storage changes due to natural climate variations simulated by a model are removed from total water storage changes observed by GRACE; the residual is then interpreted as anthropogenic groundwater change. If the modeled water storage estimate contains systematic errors, these errors will also be present in the residual groundwater estimate. For example, simulations performed with the Community Land Model (CLM; the land component of the Community Earth System Model) generally show a weak (as much as 50% smaller) seasonal cycle of water storage in semi-arid regions when compared to GRACE satellite water storage estimates. This bias propagates into GRACE-CLM anthropogenic groundwater change estimates, which then exhibit unphysical seasonal variability. The CLM bias can be traced to the parameterization of soil evaporative resistance. Incorporating a new soil resistance parameterization in CLM greatly reduces the seasonal bias with respect to GRACE. In this study, we compare the improved CLM water storage estimates to GRACE and discuss the implications for estimates of anthropogenic groundwater withdrawal, showing examples for the Middle East and Southwestern United States.

Vision-based stress estimation model for steel frame structures with rigid links

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Hyo Seon; Park, Jun Su; Oh, Byung Kwan

2017-07-01

This paper presents a stress estimation model for the safety evaluation of steel frame structures with rigid links using a vision-based monitoring system. In this model, the deformed shape of a structure under external loads is estimated via displacements measured by a motion capture system (MCS), which is a non-contact displacement measurement device. During the estimation of the deformed shape, the effective lengths of the rigid link ranges in the frame structure are identified. The radius of the curvature of the structural member to be monitored is calculated using the estimated deformed shape and is employed to estimate stress. Using MCS in the presented model, the safety of a structure can be assessed gauge-freely. In addition, because the stress is directly extracted from the radius of the curvature obtained from the measured deformed shape, information on the loadings and boundary conditions of the structure are not required. Furthermore, the model, which includes the identification of the effective lengths of the rigid links, can consider the influences of the stiffness of the connection and support on the deformation in the stress estimation. To verify the applicability of the presented model, static loading tests for a steel frame specimen were conducted. By comparing the stress estimated by the model with the measured stress, the validity of the model was confirmed.

Scaling uncertainties in estimating canopy foliar maintenance respiration for black spruce ecosystems in Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zhang, X.; McGuire, A.D.; Ruess, Roger W.

2006-01-01

A major challenge confronting the scientific community is to understand both patterns of and controls over spatial and temporal variability of carbon exchange between boreal forest ecosystems and the atmosphere. An understanding of the sources of variability of carbon processes at fine scales and how these contribute to uncertainties in estimating carbon fluxes is relevant to representing these processes at coarse scales. To explore some of the challenges and uncertainties in estimating carbon fluxes at fine to coarse scales, we conducted a modeling analysis of canopy foliar maintenance respiration for black spruce ecosystems of Alaska by scaling empirical hourly models of foliar maintenance respiration (Rm) to estimate canopy foliar Rm for individual stands. We used variation in foliar N concentration among stands to develop hourly stand-specific models and then developed an hourly pooled model. An uncertainty analysis identified that the most important parameter affecting estimates of canopy foliar Rm was one that describes R m at 0??C per g N, which explained more than 55% of variance in annual estimates of canopy foliar Rm. The comparison of simulated annual canopy foliar Rm identified significant differences between stand-specific and pooled models for each stand. This result indicates that control over foliar N concentration should be considered in models that estimate canopy foliar Rm of black spruce stands across the landscape. In this study, we also temporally scaled the hourly stand-level models to estimate canopy foliar Rm of black spruce stands using mean monthly temperature data. Comparisons of monthly Rm between the hourly and monthly versions of the models indicated that there was very little difference between the estimates of hourly and monthly models, suggesting that hourly models can be aggregated to use monthly input data with little loss of precision. We conclude that uncertainties in the use of a coarse-scale model for estimating canopy foliar Rm at regional scales depend on uncertainties in representing needle-level respiration and on uncertainties in representing the spatial variability of canopy foliar N across a region. The development of spatial data sets of canopy foliar N represents a major challenge in estimating canopy foliar maintenance respiration at regional scales. ?? Springer 2006.

A Portuguese value set for the SF-6D.

PubMed

Ferreira, Lara N; Ferreira, Pedro L; Pereira, Luis N; Brazier, John; Rowen, Donna

2010-08-01

The SF-6D is a preference-based measure of health derived from the SF-36 that can be used for cost-effectiveness analysis using cost-per-quality adjusted life-year analysis. This study seeks to estimate a system weight for the SF-6D for Portugal and to compare the results with the UK system weights. A sample of 55 health states defined by the SF-6D has been valued by a representative random sample of the Portuguese population, stratified by sex and age (n = 140), using the Standard Gamble (SG). Several models are estimated at both the individual and aggregate levels for predicting health-state valuations. Models with main effects, with interaction effects and with the constant forced to unity are presented. Random effects (RE) models are estimated using generalized least squares (GLS) regressions. Generalized estimation equations (GEE) are used to estimate RE models with the constant forced to unity. Estimations at the individual level were performed using 630 health-state valuations. Alternative functional forms are considered to account for the skewed distribution of health-state valuations. The models are analyzed in terms of their coefficients, overall fit, and the ability for predicting the SG-values. The RE models estimated using GLS and through GEE produce significant coefficients, which are robust across model specification. However, there are concerns regarding some inconsistent estimates, and so parsimonious consistent models were estimated. There is evidence of under prediction in some states assigned to poor health. The results are consistent with the UK results. The models estimated provide preference-based quality of life weights for the Portuguese population when health status data have been collected using the SF-36. Although the sample was randomly drowned findings should be treated with caution, given the small sample size, even knowing that they have been estimated at the individual level.

Monitoring gray wolf populations using multiple survey methods

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ausband, David E.; Rich, Lindsey N.; Glenn, Elizabeth M.; Mitchell, Michael S.; Zager, Pete; Miller, David A.W.; Waits, Lisette P.; Ackerman, Bruce B.; Mack, Curt M.

2013-01-01

The behavioral patterns and large territories of large carnivores make them challenging to monitor. Occupancy modeling provides a framework for monitoring population dynamics and distribution of territorial carnivores. We combined data from hunter surveys, howling and sign surveys conducted at predicted wolf rendezvous sites, and locations of radiocollared wolves to model occupancy and estimate the number of gray wolf (Canis lupus) packs and individuals in Idaho during 2009 and 2010. We explicitly accounted for potential misidentification of occupied cells (i.e., false positives) using an extension of the multi-state occupancy framework. We found agreement between model predictions and distribution and estimates of number of wolf packs and individual wolves reported by Idaho Department of Fish and Game and Nez Perce Tribe from intensive radiotelemetry-based monitoring. Estimates of individual wolves from occupancy models that excluded data from radiocollared wolves were within an average of 12.0% (SD = 6.0) of existing statewide minimum counts. Models using only hunter survey data generally estimated the lowest abundance, whereas models using all data generally provided the highest estimates of abundance, although only marginally higher. Precision across approaches ranged from 14% to 28% of mean estimates and models that used all data streams generally provided the most precise estimates. We demonstrated that an occupancy model based on different survey methods can yield estimates of the number and distribution of wolf packs and individual wolf abundance with reasonable measures of precision. Assumptions of the approach including that average territory size is known, average pack size is known, and territories do not overlap, must be evaluated periodically using independent field data to ensure occupancy estimates remain reliable. Use of multiple survey methods helps to ensure that occupancy estimates are robust to weaknesses or changes in any 1 survey method. Occupancy modeling may be useful for standardizing estimates across large landscapes, even if survey methods differ across regions, allowing for inferences about broad-scale population dynamics of wolves.

Minimum-norm cortical source estimation in layered head models is robust against skull conductivity error☆☆☆

PubMed Central

Stenroos, Matti; Hauk, Olaf

2013-01-01

The conductivity profile of the head has a major effect on EEG signals, but unfortunately the conductivity for the most important compartment, skull, is only poorly known. In dipole modeling studies, errors in modeled skull conductivity have been considered to have a detrimental effect on EEG source estimation. However, as dipole models are very restrictive, those results cannot be generalized to other source estimation methods. In this work, we studied the sensitivity of EEG and combined MEG + EEG source estimation to errors in skull conductivity using a distributed source model and minimum-norm (MN) estimation. We used a MEG/EEG modeling set-up that reflected state-of-the-art practices of experimental research. Cortical surfaces were segmented and realistically-shaped three-layer anatomical head models were constructed, and forward models were built with Galerkin boundary element method while varying the skull conductivity. Lead-field topographies and MN spatial filter vectors were compared across conductivities, and the localization and spatial spread of the MN estimators were assessed using intuitive resolution metrics. The results showed that the MN estimator is robust against errors in skull conductivity: the conductivity had a moderate effect on amplitudes of lead fields and spatial filter vectors, but the effect on corresponding morphologies was small. The localization performance of the EEG or combined MEG + EEG MN estimator was only minimally affected by the conductivity error, while the spread of the estimate varied slightly. Thus, the uncertainty with respect to skull conductivity should not prevent researchers from applying minimum norm estimation to EEG or combined MEG + EEG data. Comparing our results to those obtained earlier with dipole models shows that general judgment on the performance of an imaging modality should not be based on analysis with one source estimation method only. PMID:23639259

Bayesian Estimation of Panel Data Fractional Response Models with Endogeneity: An Application to Standardized Test Rates

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kessler, Lawrence M.

2013-01-01

In this paper I propose Bayesian estimation of a nonlinear panel data model with a fractional dependent variable (bounded between 0 and 1). Specifically, I estimate a panel data fractional probit model which takes into account the bounded nature of the fractional response variable. I outline estimation under the assumption of strict exogeneity as…

A frequency-domain estimator for use in adaptive control systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lamaire, Richard O.; Valavani, Lena; Athans, Michael; Stein, Gunter

1991-01-01

This paper presents a frequency-domain estimator that can identify both a parametrized nominal model of a plant as well as a frequency-domain bounding function on the modeling error associated with this nominal model. This estimator, which we call a robust estimator, can be used in conjunction with a robust control-law redesign algorithm to form a robust adaptive controller.

Influence of spatial temperature estimation method in ecohydrologic modeling in the western Oregon Cascades

Treesearch

E. Garcia; C.L. Tague; J. Choate

2013-01-01

Most spatially explicit hydrologic models require estimates of air temperature patterns. For these models, empirical relationships between elevation and air temperature are frequently used to upscale point measurements or downscale regional and global climate model estimates of air temperature. Mountainous environments are particularly sensitive to air temperature...

Spatial distribution of water supply in the coterminous United States

Treesearch

Thomas C. Brown; Michael T. Hobbins; Jorge A. Ramirez

2008-01-01

Available water supply across the contiguous 48 states was estimated as precipitation minus evapotranspiration using data for the period 1953-1994. Precipitation estimates were taken from the Parameter- Elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM). Evapotranspiration was estimated using two models, the Advection-Aridity model and the Zhang model. The...

Information Flow in an Atmospheric Model and Data Assimilation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yoon, Young-noh

2011-01-01

Weather forecasting consists of two processes, model integration and analysis (data assimilation). During the model integration, the state estimate produced by the analysis evolves to the next cycle time according to the atmospheric model to become the background estimate. The analysis then produces a new state estimate by combining the background…

A Spatio-Temporally Explicit Random Encounter Model for Large-Scale Population Surveys

PubMed Central

Jousimo, Jussi; Ovaskainen, Otso

2016-01-01

Random encounter models can be used to estimate population abundance from indirect data collected by non-invasive sampling methods, such as track counts or camera-trap data. The classical Formozov–Malyshev–Pereleshin (FMP) estimator converts track counts into an estimate of mean population density, assuming that data on the daily movement distances of the animals are available. We utilize generalized linear models with spatio-temporal error structures to extend the FMP estimator into a flexible Bayesian modelling approach that estimates not only total population size, but also spatio-temporal variation in population density. We also introduce a weighting scheme to estimate density on habitats that are not covered by survey transects, assuming that movement data on a subset of individuals is available. We test the performance of spatio-temporal and temporal approaches by a simulation study mimicking the Finnish winter track count survey. The results illustrate how the spatio-temporal modelling approach is able to borrow information from observations made on neighboring locations and times when estimating population density, and that spatio-temporal and temporal smoothing models can provide improved estimates of total population size compared to the FMP method. PMID:27611683

Discrete factor approximations in simultaneous equation models: estimating the impact of a dummy endogenous variable on a continuous outcome.

PubMed

Mroz, T A

1999-10-01

This paper contains a Monte Carlo evaluation of estimators used to control for endogeneity of dummy explanatory variables in continuous outcome regression models. When the true model has bivariate normal disturbances, estimators using discrete factor approximations compare favorably to efficient estimators in terms of precision and bias; these approximation estimators dominate all the other estimators examined when the disturbances are non-normal. The experiments also indicate that one should liberally add points of support to the discrete factor distribution. The paper concludes with an application of the discrete factor approximation to the estimation of the impact of marriage on wages.

Non-stationary noise estimation using dictionary learning and Gaussian mixture models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hughes, James M.; Rockmore, Daniel N.; Wang, Yang

2014-02-01

Stationarity of the noise distribution is a common assumption in image processing. This assumption greatly simplifies denoising estimators and other model parameters and consequently assuming stationarity is often a matter of convenience rather than an accurate model of noise characteristics. The problematic nature of this assumption is exacerbated in real-world contexts, where noise is often highly non-stationary and can possess time- and space-varying characteristics. Regardless of model complexity, estimating the parameters of noise dis- tributions in digital images is a difficult task, and estimates are often based on heuristic assumptions. Recently, sparse Bayesian dictionary learning methods were shown to produce accurate estimates of the level of additive white Gaussian noise in images with minimal assumptions. We show that a similar model is capable of accu- rately modeling certain kinds of non-stationary noise processes, allowing for space-varying noise in images to be estimated, detected, and removed. We apply this modeling concept to several types of non-stationary noise and demonstrate the model's effectiveness on real-world problems, including denoising and segmentation of images according to noise characteristics, which has applications in image forensics.

Computation of nonlinear least squares estimator and maximum likelihood using principles in matrix calculus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahaboob, B.; Venkateswarlu, B.; Sankar, J. Ravi; Balasiddamuni, P.

2017-11-01

This paper uses matrix calculus techniques to obtain Nonlinear Least Squares Estimator (NLSE), Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE) and Linear Pseudo model for nonlinear regression model. David Pollard and Peter Radchenko [1] explained analytic techniques to compute the NLSE. However the present research paper introduces an innovative method to compute the NLSE using principles in multivariate calculus. This study is concerned with very new optimization techniques used to compute MLE and NLSE. Anh [2] derived NLSE and MLE of a heteroscedatistic regression model. Lemcoff [3] discussed a procedure to get linear pseudo model for nonlinear regression model. In this research article a new technique is developed to get the linear pseudo model for nonlinear regression model using multivariate calculus. The linear pseudo model of Edmond Malinvaud [4] has been explained in a very different way in this paper. David Pollard et.al used empirical process techniques to study the asymptotic of the LSE (Least-squares estimation) for the fitting of nonlinear regression function in 2006. In Jae Myung [13] provided a go conceptual for Maximum likelihood estimation in his work “Tutorial on maximum likelihood estimation

Estimating abundance in the presence of species uncertainty

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chambert, Thierry A.; Hossack, Blake R.; Fishback, LeeAnn; Davenport, Jon M.

2016-01-01

1.N-mixture models have become a popular method for estimating abundance of free-ranging animals that are not marked or identified individually. These models have been used on count data for single species that can be identified with certainty. However, co-occurring species often look similar during one or more life stages, making it difficult to assign species for all recorded captures. This uncertainty creates problems for estimating species-specific abundance and it can often limit life stages to which we can make inference. 2.We present a new extension of N-mixture models that accounts for species uncertainty. In addition to estimating site-specific abundances and detection probabilities, this model allows estimating probability of correct assignment of species identity. We implement this hierarchical model in a Bayesian framework and provide all code for running the model in BUGS-language programs. 3.We present an application of the model on count data from two sympatric freshwater fishes, the brook stickleback (Culaea inconstans) and the ninespine stickleback (Pungitius pungitius), ad illustrate implementation of covariate effects (habitat characteristics). In addition, we used a simulation study to validate the model and illustrate potential sample size issues. We also compared, for both real and simulated data, estimates provided by our model to those obtained by a simple N-mixture model when captures of unknown species identification were discarded. In the latter case, abundance estimates appeared highly biased and very imprecise, while our new model provided unbiased estimates with higher precision. 4.This extension of the N-mixture model should be useful for a wide variety of studies and taxa, as species uncertainty is a common issue. It should notably help improve investigation of abundance and vital rate characteristics of organisms’ early life stages, which are sometimes more difficult to identify than adults.

Multilevel model to estimate county-level untreated dental caries among US children aged 6-9years using the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey.

PubMed

Lin, Mei; Zhang, Xingyou; Holt, James B; Robison, Valerie; Li, Chien-Hsun; Griffin, Susan O

2018-06-01

Because conducting population-based oral health screening is resource intensive, oral health data at small-area levels (e.g., county-level) are not commonly available. We applied the multilevel logistic regression and poststratification method to estimate county-level prevalence of untreated dental caries among children aged 6-9years in the United States using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2005-2010 linked with various area-level data at census tract, county and state levels. We validated model-based national estimates against direct estimates from NHANES. We also compared model-based estimates with direct estimates from select State Oral Health Surveys (SOHS) at state and county levels. The model with individual-level covariates only and the model with individual-, census tract- and county-level covariates explained 7.2% and 96.3% respectively of overall county-level variation in untreated caries. Model-based county-level prevalence estimates ranged from 4.9% to 65.2% with median of 22.1%. The model-based national estimate (19.9%) matched the NHANES direct estimate (19.8%). We found significantly positive correlations between model-based estimates for 8-year-olds and direct estimates from the third-grade State Oral Health Surveys (SOHS) at state level for 34 states (Pearson coefficient: 0.54, P=0.001) and SOHS estimates at county level for 53 New York counties (Pearson coefficient: 0.38, P=0.006). This methodology could be a useful tool to characterize county-level disparities in untreated dental caries among children aged 6-9years and complement oral health surveillance to inform public health programs especially when local-level data are not available although the lack of external validation due to data unavailability should be acknowledged. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Assessing performance of Bayesian state-space models fit to Argos satellite telemetry locations processed with Kalman filtering.

PubMed

Silva, Mónica A; Jonsen, Ian; Russell, Deborah J F; Prieto, Rui; Thompson, Dave; Baumgartner, Mark F

2014-01-01

Argos recently implemented a new algorithm to calculate locations of satellite-tracked animals that uses a Kalman filter (KF). The KF algorithm is reported to increase the number and accuracy of estimated positions over the traditional Least Squares (LS) algorithm, with potential advantages to the application of state-space methods to model animal movement data. We tested the performance of two Bayesian state-space models (SSMs) fitted to satellite tracking data processed with KF algorithm. Tracks from 7 harbour seals (Phoca vitulina) tagged with ARGOS satellite transmitters equipped with Fastloc GPS loggers were used to calculate the error of locations estimated from SSMs fitted to KF and LS data, by comparing those to "true" GPS locations. Data on 6 fin whales (Balaenoptera physalus) were used to investigate consistency in movement parameters, location and behavioural states estimated by switching state-space models (SSSM) fitted to data derived from KF and LS methods. The model fit to KF locations improved the accuracy of seal trips by 27% over the LS model. 82% of locations predicted from the KF model and 73% of locations from the LS model were <5 km from the corresponding interpolated GPS position. Uncertainty in KF model estimates (5.6 ± 5.6 km) was nearly half that of LS estimates (11.6 ± 8.4 km). Accuracy of KF and LS modelled locations was sensitive to precision but not to observation frequency or temporal resolution of raw Argos data. On average, 88% of whale locations estimated by KF models fell within the 95% probability ellipse of paired locations from LS models. Precision of KF locations for whales was generally higher. Whales' behavioural mode inferred by KF models matched the classification from LS models in 94% of the cases. State-space models fit to KF data can improve spatial accuracy of location estimates over LS models and produce equally reliable behavioural estimates.

Assessing Performance of Bayesian State-Space Models Fit to Argos Satellite Telemetry Locations Processed with Kalman Filtering

PubMed Central

Silva, Mónica A.; Jonsen, Ian; Russell, Deborah J. F.; Prieto, Rui; Thompson, Dave; Baumgartner, Mark F.

2014-01-01

Argos recently implemented a new algorithm to calculate locations of satellite-tracked animals that uses a Kalman filter (KF). The KF algorithm is reported to increase the number and accuracy of estimated positions over the traditional Least Squares (LS) algorithm, with potential advantages to the application of state-space methods to model animal movement data. We tested the performance of two Bayesian state-space models (SSMs) fitted to satellite tracking data processed with KF algorithm. Tracks from 7 harbour seals (Phoca vitulina) tagged with ARGOS satellite transmitters equipped with Fastloc GPS loggers were used to calculate the error of locations estimated from SSMs fitted to KF and LS data, by comparing those to “true” GPS locations. Data on 6 fin whales (Balaenoptera physalus) were used to investigate consistency in movement parameters, location and behavioural states estimated by switching state-space models (SSSM) fitted to data derived from KF and LS methods. The model fit to KF locations improved the accuracy of seal trips by 27% over the LS model. 82% of locations predicted from the KF model and 73% of locations from the LS model were <5 km from the corresponding interpolated GPS position. Uncertainty in KF model estimates (5.6±5.6 km) was nearly half that of LS estimates (11.6±8.4 km). Accuracy of KF and LS modelled locations was sensitive to precision but not to observation frequency or temporal resolution of raw Argos data. On average, 88% of whale locations estimated by KF models fell within the 95% probability ellipse of paired locations from LS models. Precision of KF locations for whales was generally higher. Whales’ behavioural mode inferred by KF models matched the classification from LS models in 94% of the cases. State-space models fit to KF data can improve spatial accuracy of location estimates over LS models and produce equally reliable behavioural estimates. PMID:24651252

An estimator of the survival function based on the semi-Markov model under dependent censorship.

PubMed

Lee, Seung-Yeoun; Tsai, Wei-Yann

2005-06-01

Lee and Wolfe (Biometrics vol. 54 pp. 1176-1178, 1998) proposed the two-stage sampling design for testing the assumption of independent censoring, which involves further follow-up of a subset of lost-to-follow-up censored subjects. They also proposed an adjusted estimator for the survivor function for a proportional hazards model under the dependent censoring model. In this paper, a new estimator for the survivor function is proposed for the semi-Markov model under the dependent censorship on the basis of the two-stage sampling data. The consistency and the asymptotic distribution of the proposed estimator are derived. The estimation procedure is illustrated with an example of lung cancer clinical trial and simulation results are reported of the mean squared errors of estimators under a proportional hazards and two different nonproportional hazards models.

Load estimator (LOADEST): a FORTRAN program for estimating constituent loads in streams and rivers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Runkel, Robert L.; Crawford, Charles G.; Cohn, Timothy A.

2004-01-01

LOAD ESTimator (LOADEST) is a FORTRAN program for estimating constituent loads in streams and rivers. Given a time series of streamflow, additional data variables, and constituent concentration, LOADEST assists the user in developing a regression model for the estimation of constituent load (calibration). Explanatory variables within the regression model include various functions of streamflow, decimal time, and additional user-specified data variables. The formulated regression model then is used to estimate loads over a user-specified time interval (estimation). Mean load estimates, standard errors, and 95 percent confidence intervals are developed on a monthly and(or) seasonal basis. The calibration and estimation procedures within LOADEST are based on three statistical estimation methods. The first two methods, Adjusted Maximum Likelihood Estimation (AMLE) and Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE), are appropriate when the calibration model errors (residuals) are normally distributed. Of the two, AMLE is the method of choice when the calibration data set (time series of streamflow, additional data variables, and concentration) contains censored data. The third method, Least Absolute Deviation (LAD), is an alternative to maximum likelihood estimation when the residuals are not normally distributed. LOADEST output includes diagnostic tests and warnings to assist the user in determining the appropriate estimation method and in interpreting the estimated loads. This report describes the development and application of LOADEST. Sections of the report describe estimation theory, input/output specifications, sample applications, and installation instructions.

Nonlinear finite element model updating for damage identification of civil structures using batch Bayesian estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ebrahimian, Hamed; Astroza, Rodrigo; Conte, Joel P.; de Callafon, Raymond A.

2017-02-01

This paper presents a framework for structural health monitoring (SHM) and damage identification of civil structures. This framework integrates advanced mechanics-based nonlinear finite element (FE) modeling and analysis techniques with a batch Bayesian estimation approach to estimate time-invariant model parameters used in the FE model of the structure of interest. The framework uses input excitation and dynamic response of the structure and updates a nonlinear FE model of the structure to minimize the discrepancies between predicted and measured response time histories. The updated FE model can then be interrogated to detect, localize, classify, and quantify the state of damage and predict the remaining useful life of the structure. As opposed to recursive estimation methods, in the batch Bayesian estimation approach, the entire time history of the input excitation and output response of the structure are used as a batch of data to estimate the FE model parameters through a number of iterations. In the case of non-informative prior, the batch Bayesian method leads to an extended maximum likelihood (ML) estimation method to estimate jointly time-invariant model parameters and the measurement noise amplitude. The extended ML estimation problem is solved efficiently using a gradient-based interior-point optimization algorithm. Gradient-based optimization algorithms require the FE response sensitivities with respect to the model parameters to be identified. The FE response sensitivities are computed accurately and efficiently using the direct differentiation method (DDM). The estimation uncertainties are evaluated based on the Cramer-Rao lower bound (CRLB) theorem by computing the exact Fisher Information matrix using the FE response sensitivities with respect to the model parameters. The accuracy of the proposed uncertainty quantification approach is verified using a sampling approach based on the unscented transformation. Two validation studies, based on realistic structural FE models of a bridge pier and a moment resisting steel frame, are performed to validate the performance and accuracy of the presented nonlinear FE model updating approach and demonstrate its application to SHM. These validation studies show the excellent performance of the proposed framework for SHM and damage identification even in the presence of high measurement noise and/or way-out initial estimates of the model parameters. Furthermore, the detrimental effects of the input measurement noise on the performance of the proposed framework are illustrated and quantified through one of the validation studies.

New model for estimating the relationship between surface area and volume in the human body using skeletal remains.

PubMed

Kasabova, Boryana E; Holliday, Trenton W

2015-04-01

A new model for estimating human body surface area and body volume/mass from standard skeletal metrics is presented. This model is then tested against both 1) "independently estimated" body surface areas and "independently estimated" body volume/mass (both derived from anthropometric data) and 2) the cylindrical model of Ruff. The model is found to be more accurate in estimating both body surface area and body volume/mass than the cylindrical model, but it is more accurate in estimating body surface area than it is for estimating body volume/mass (as reflected by the standard error of the estimate when "independently estimated" surface area or volume/mass is regressed on estimates derived from the present model). Two practical applications of the model are tested. In the first test, the relative contribution of the limbs versus the trunk to the body's volume and surface area is compared between "heat-adapted" and "cold-adapted" populations. As expected, the "cold-adapted" group has significantly more of its body surface area and volume in its trunk than does the "heat-adapted" group. In the second test, we evaluate the effect of variation in bi-iliac breadth, elongated or foreshortened limbs, and differences in crural index on the body's surface area to volume ratio (SA:V). Results indicate that the effects of bi-iliac breadth on SA:V are substantial, while those of limb lengths and (especially) the crural index are minor, which suggests that factors other than surface area relative to volume are driving morphological variation and ecogeographical patterning in limb prorportions. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Population Estimation Using a 3D City Model: A Multi-Scale Country-Wide Study in the Netherlands

PubMed Central

Arroyo Ohori, Ken; Ledoux, Hugo; Peters, Ravi; Stoter, Jantien

2016-01-01

The remote estimation of a region’s population has for decades been a key application of geographic information science in demography. Most studies have used 2D data (maps, satellite imagery) to estimate population avoiding field surveys and questionnaires. As the availability of semantic 3D city models is constantly increasing, we investigate to what extent they can be used for the same purpose. Based on the assumption that housing space is a proxy for the number of its residents, we use two methods to estimate the population with 3D city models in two directions: (1) disaggregation (areal interpolation) to estimate the population of small administrative entities (e.g. neighbourhoods) from that of larger ones (e.g. municipalities); and (2) a statistical modelling approach to estimate the population of large entities from a sample composed of their smaller ones (e.g. one acquired by a government register). Starting from a complete Dutch census dataset at the neighbourhood level and a 3D model of all 9.9 million buildings in the Netherlands, we compare the population estimates obtained by both methods with the actual population as reported in the census, and use it to evaluate the quality that can be achieved by estimations at different administrative levels. We also analyse how the volume-based estimation enabled by 3D city models fares in comparison to 2D methods using building footprints and floor areas, as well as how it is affected by different levels of semantic detail in a 3D city model. We conclude that 3D city models are useful for estimations of large areas (e.g. for a country), and that the 3D approach has clear advantages over the 2D approach. PMID:27254151

Estimating stage-specific daily survival probabilities of nests when nest age is unknown

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stanley, T.R.

2004-01-01

Estimation of daily survival probabilities of nests is common in studies of avian populations. Since the introduction of Mayfield's (1961, 1975) estimator, numerous models have been developed to relax Mayfield's assumptions and account for biologically important sources of variation. Stanley (2000) presented a model for estimating stage-specific (e.g. incubation stage, nestling stage) daily survival probabilities of nests that conditions on “nest type” and requires that nests be aged when they are found. Because aging nests typically requires handling the eggs, there may be situations where nests can not or should not be aged and the Stanley (2000) model will be inapplicable. Here, I present a model for estimating stage-specific daily survival probabilities that conditions on nest stage for active nests, thereby obviating the need to age nests when they are found. Specifically, I derive the maximum likelihood function for the model, evaluate the model's performance using Monte Carlo simulations, and provide software for estimating parameters (along with an example). For sample sizes as low as 50 nests, bias was small and confidence interval coverage was close to the nominal rate, especially when a reduced-parameter model was used for estimation.

Estimating Convection Parameters in the GFDL CM2.1 Model Using Ensemble Data Assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Shan; Zhang, Shaoqing; Liu, Zhengyu; Lu, Lv; Zhu, Jiang; Zhang, Xuefeng; Wu, Xinrong; Zhao, Ming; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Zhang, Rong-Hua; Lin, Xiaopei

2018-04-01

Parametric uncertainty in convection parameterization is one major source of model errors that cause model climate drift. Convection parameter tuning has been widely studied in atmospheric models to help mitigate the problem. However, in a fully coupled general circulation model (CGCM), convection parameters which impact the ocean as well as the climate simulation may have different optimal values. This study explores the possibility of estimating convection parameters with an ensemble coupled data assimilation method in a CGCM. Impacts of the convection parameter estimation on climate analysis and forecast are analyzed. In a twin experiment framework, five convection parameters in the GFDL coupled model CM2.1 are estimated individually and simultaneously under both perfect and imperfect model regimes. Results show that the ensemble data assimilation method can help reduce the bias in convection parameters. With estimated convection parameters, the analyses and forecasts for both the atmosphere and the ocean are generally improved. It is also found that information in low latitudes is relatively more important for estimating convection parameters. This study further suggests that when important parameters in appropriate physical parameterizations are identified, incorporating their estimation into traditional ensemble data assimilation procedure could improve the final analysis and climate prediction.

Model Effects on GLAS-Based Regional Estimates of Forest Biomass and Carbon

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nelson, Ross F.

2010-01-01

Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) / Geosciences Laser Altimeter System (GLAS) waveform data are used to estimate biomass and carbon on a 1.27 X 10(exp 6) square km study area in the Province of Quebec, Canada, below the tree line. The same input datasets and sampling design are used in conjunction with four different predictive models to estimate total aboveground dry forest biomass and forest carbon. The four models include non-stratified and stratified versions of a multiple linear model where either biomass or (biomass)(exp 0.5) serves as the dependent variable. The use of different models in Quebec introduces differences in Provincial dry biomass estimates of up to 0.35 G, with a range of 4.94 +/- 0.28 Gt to 5.29 +/-0.36 Gt. The differences among model estimates are statistically non-significant, however, and the results demonstrate the degree to which carbon estimates vary strictly as a function of the model used to estimate regional biomass. Results also indicate that GLAS measurements become problematic with respect to height and biomass retrievals in the boreal forest when biomass values fall below 20 t/ha and when GLAS 75th percentile heights fall below 7 m.

Summary of the DREAM8 Parameter Estimation Challenge: Toward Parameter Identification for Whole-Cell Models.

PubMed

Karr, Jonathan R; Williams, Alex H; Zucker, Jeremy D; Raue, Andreas; Steiert, Bernhard; Timmer, Jens; Kreutz, Clemens; Wilkinson, Simon; Allgood, Brandon A; Bot, Brian M; Hoff, Bruce R; Kellen, Michael R; Covert, Markus W; Stolovitzky, Gustavo A; Meyer, Pablo

2015-05-01

Whole-cell models that explicitly represent all cellular components at the molecular level have the potential to predict phenotype from genotype. However, even for simple bacteria, whole-cell models will contain thousands of parameters, many of which are poorly characterized or unknown. New algorithms are needed to estimate these parameters and enable researchers to build increasingly comprehensive models. We organized the Dialogue for Reverse Engineering Assessments and Methods (DREAM) 8 Whole-Cell Parameter Estimation Challenge to develop new parameter estimation algorithms for whole-cell models. We asked participants to identify a subset of parameters of a whole-cell model given the model's structure and in silico "experimental" data. Here we describe the challenge, the best performing methods, and new insights into the identifiability of whole-cell models. We also describe several valuable lessons we learned toward improving future challenges. Going forward, we believe that collaborative efforts supported by inexpensive cloud computing have the potential to solve whole-cell model parameter estimation.

Adaptive Parameter Estimation of Person Recognition Model in a Stochastic Human Tracking Process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakanishi, W.; Fuse, T.; Ishikawa, T.

2015-05-01

This paper aims at an estimation of parameters of person recognition models using a sequential Bayesian filtering method. In many human tracking method, any parameters of models used for recognize the same person in successive frames are usually set in advance of human tracking process. In real situation these parameters may change according to situation of observation and difficulty level of human position prediction. Thus in this paper we formulate an adaptive parameter estimation using general state space model. Firstly we explain the way to formulate human tracking in general state space model with their components. Then referring to previous researches, we use Bhattacharyya coefficient to formulate observation model of general state space model, which is corresponding to person recognition model. The observation model in this paper is a function of Bhattacharyya coefficient with one unknown parameter. At last we sequentially estimate this parameter in real dataset with some settings. Results showed that sequential parameter estimation was succeeded and were consistent with observation situations such as occlusions.

Tube-Load Model Parameter Estimation for Monitoring Arterial Hemodynamics

PubMed Central

Zhang, Guanqun; Hahn, Jin-Oh; Mukkamala, Ramakrishna

2011-01-01

A useful model of the arterial system is the uniform, lossless tube with parametric load. This tube-load model is able to account for wave propagation and reflection (unlike lumped-parameter models such as the Windkessel) while being defined by only a few parameters (unlike comprehensive distributed-parameter models). As a result, the parameters may be readily estimated by accurate fitting of the model to available arterial pressure and flow waveforms so as to permit improved monitoring of arterial hemodynamics. In this paper, we review tube-load model parameter estimation techniques that have appeared in the literature for monitoring wave reflection, large artery compliance, pulse transit time, and central aortic pressure. We begin by motivating the use of the tube-load model for parameter estimation. We then describe the tube-load model, its assumptions and validity, and approaches for estimating its parameters. We next summarize the various techniques and their experimental results while highlighting their advantages over conventional techniques. We conclude the review by suggesting future research directions and describing potential applications. PMID:22053157

Yield estimation of sugarcane based on agrometeorological-spectral models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rudorff, Bernardo Friedrich Theodor; Batista, Getulio Teixeira

1990-01-01

This work has the objective to assess the performance of a yield estimation model for sugarcane (Succharum officinarum). The model uses orbital gathered spectral data along with yield estimated from an agrometeorological model. The test site includes the sugarcane plantations of the Barra Grande Plant located in Lencois Paulista municipality in Sao Paulo State. Production data of four crop years were analyzed. Yield data observed in the first crop year (1983/84) were regressed against spectral and agrometeorological data of that same year. This provided the model to predict the yield for the following crop year i.e., 1984/85. The model to predict the yield of subsequent years (up to 1987/88) were developed similarly, incorporating all previous years data. The yield estimations obtained from these models explained 69, 54, and 50 percent of the yield variation in the 1984/85, 1985/86, and 1986/87 crop years, respectively. The accuracy of yield estimations based on spectral data only (vegetation index model) and on agrometeorological data only (agrometeorological model) were also investigated.

Validation of the alternating conditional estimation algorithm for estimation of flexible extensions of Cox's proportional hazards model with nonlinear constraints on the parameters.

PubMed

Wynant, Willy; Abrahamowicz, Michal

2016-11-01

Standard optimization algorithms for maximizing likelihood may not be applicable to the estimation of those flexible multivariable models that are nonlinear in their parameters. For applications where the model's structure permits separating estimation of mutually exclusive subsets of parameters into distinct steps, we propose the alternating conditional estimation (ACE) algorithm. We validate the algorithm, in simulations, for estimation of two flexible extensions of Cox's proportional hazards model where the standard maximum partial likelihood estimation does not apply, with simultaneous modeling of (1) nonlinear and time-dependent effects of continuous covariates on the hazard, and (2) nonlinear interaction and main effects of the same variable. We also apply the algorithm in real-life analyses to estimate nonlinear and time-dependent effects of prognostic factors for mortality in colon cancer. Analyses of both simulated and real-life data illustrate good statistical properties of the ACE algorithm and its ability to yield new potentially useful insights about the data structure. © 2016 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

An adaptive state of charge estimation approach for lithium-ion series-connected battery system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peng, Simin; Zhu, Xuelai; Xing, Yinjiao; Shi, Hongbing; Cai, Xu; Pecht, Michael

2018-07-01

Due to the incorrect or unknown noise statistics of a battery system and its cell-to-cell variations, state of charge (SOC) estimation of a lithium-ion series-connected battery system is usually inaccurate or even divergent using model-based methods, such as extended Kalman filter (EKF) and unscented Kalman filter (UKF). To resolve this problem, an adaptive unscented Kalman filter (AUKF) based on a noise statistics estimator and a model parameter regulator is developed to accurately estimate the SOC of a series-connected battery system. An equivalent circuit model is first built based on the model parameter regulator that illustrates the influence of cell-to-cell variation on the battery system. A noise statistics estimator is then used to attain adaptively the estimated noise statistics for the AUKF when its prior noise statistics are not accurate or exactly Gaussian. The accuracy and effectiveness of the SOC estimation method is validated by comparing the developed AUKF and UKF when model and measurement statistics noises are inaccurate, respectively. Compared with the UKF and EKF, the developed method shows the highest SOC estimation accuracy.

PockDrug: A Model for Predicting Pocket Druggability That Overcomes Pocket Estimation Uncertainties.

PubMed

Borrel, Alexandre; Regad, Leslie; Xhaard, Henri; Petitjean, Michel; Camproux, Anne-Claude

2015-04-27

Predicting protein druggability is a key interest in the target identification phase of drug discovery. Here, we assess the pocket estimation methods' influence on druggability predictions by comparing statistical models constructed from pockets estimated using different pocket estimation methods: a proximity of either 4 or 5.5 Å to a cocrystallized ligand or DoGSite and fpocket estimation methods. We developed PockDrug, a robust pocket druggability model that copes with uncertainties in pocket boundaries. It is based on a linear discriminant analysis from a pool of 52 descriptors combined with a selection of the most stable and efficient models using different pocket estimation methods. PockDrug retains the best combinations of three pocket properties which impact druggability: geometry, hydrophobicity, and aromaticity. It results in an average accuracy of 87.9% ± 4.7% using a test set and exhibits higher accuracy (∼5-10%) than previous studies that used an identical apo set. In conclusion, this study confirms the influence of pocket estimation on pocket druggability prediction and proposes PockDrug as a new model that overcomes pocket estimation variability.

Comparison of local- to regional-scale estimates of ground-water recharge in Minnesota, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Delin, G.N.; Healy, R.W.; Lorenz, D.L.; Nimmo, J.R.

2007-01-01

Regional ground-water recharge estimates for Minnesota were compared to estimates made on the basis of four local- and basin-scale methods. Three local-scale methods (unsaturated-zone water balance, water-table fluctuations (WTF) using three approaches, and age dating of ground water) yielded point estimates of recharge that represent spatial scales from about 1 to about 1000 m2. A fourth method (RORA, a basin-scale analysis of streamflow records using a recession-curve-displacement technique) yielded recharge estimates at a scale of 10–1000s of km2. The RORA basin-scale recharge estimates were regionalized to estimate recharge for the entire State of Minnesota on the basis of a regional regression recharge (RRR) model that also incorporated soil and climate data. Recharge rates estimated by the RRR model compared favorably to the local and basin-scale recharge estimates. RRR estimates at study locations were about 41% less on average than the unsaturated-zone water-balance estimates, ranged from 44% greater to 12% less than estimates that were based on the three WTF approaches, were about 4% less than the age dating of ground-water estimates, and were about 5% greater than the RORA estimates. Of the methods used in this study, the WTF method is the simplest and easiest to apply. Recharge estimates made on the basis of the UZWB method were inconsistent with the results from the other methods. Recharge estimates using the RRR model could be a good source of input for regional ground-water flow models; RRR model results currently are being applied for this purpose in USGS studies elsewhere.