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Sample records for microcosms risk assessment

  1. The use of terrestrial and aquatic microcosms and mesocosms for the ecological risk assessment of veterinary medicinal products.

    PubMed

    Van den Brink, Paul J; Tarazona, Jose V; Solomon, Keith R; Knacker, Thomas; Van den Brink, Nico W; Brock, Theo C M; Hoogland, J P

    2005-04-01

    In this paper, we investigate the applicability of experimental model ecosystems (microcosms and mesocosms) for the ecological risk assessment of veterinary medicinal products (VMPs). VMPs are used in large quantities, but the assessment of associated risks to the environment is limited, although they are continually infused into the environment via a number of routes. It is argued that the experience obtained by pesticide research largely can be used when evaluating VMPs, although there are several major differences between pesticides and pharmaceuticals (e.g., knowledge of their mechanisms of action on nontarget organisms). Also, because microorganisms are often the target organisms of VMPs, risk assessment should focus more on endpoints describing functional processes. This paper provides a review of the current risk assessment schemes of Europe and North America along with examples of experiments already performed with veterinary medicinal products in aquatic and terrestrial ecosystem models. We suggest that some of the approaches developed for pesticide risk assessment can be used for VMPs and offer suggestions for the development of a framework for ecological risk assessment of VMPs.

  2. Multivariate analysis of the impacts of the turbine fuel JP-4 in a microcosm toxicity test with implications for the evaluation of ecosystem dynamics and risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Landis, W G; Matthews, R A; Markiewicz, A J; Matthews, G B

    1993-12-01

    , with implications for biomonitoring schemes and ecological risk assessments.

  3. Ecotoxicological assessment of biosolids by microcosms.

    PubMed

    Groth, Vitor Avelar; Carvalho-Pereira, Ticiana; da Silva, Eduardo Mendes; Niemeyer, Júlia Carina

    2016-10-01

    Biosolids have been applied as soil amendments to improve and maintain the soil fertility and faster plant growth. In spite of its beneficial use, the potential risks of land disposal should be analyzed, considering potential ecological receptors in soil and water. This work describes the use of an early warning laboratory microcosm system to evaluate the integrated ecotoxicological potential of two biosolids: BIO-1 and BIO-2 (18 and 28 months after landfarming, respectively), from an effluent treatment station in a petrochemical and industrial district. The endpoints related to habitat function were: a) germination, growth and biomass of Phaseolus vulgaris; b) survival, biomass and number of cocoons of Eisenia andrei (Oligochaeta) and; c) reproduction of Folsomia candida (Collembola). The retention function was evaluated by testing the leachates using the tropical cladoceran Latonopsis australis (Cladocera) in a 48-h acute toxicity test, and growth of the aquatic plant Lemna minor in a 7-d chronic test. Tropical artificial soil (TAS) and a natural soil (NS) from the region were used as control soils. Results showed no chronic toxicity of BIO-1 and BIO-2 to the soil organisms tested, but acute toxicity of BIO-1 in the leachate for 50% of L. australis, and chronic toxicity of both biosolid leachates to L. minor (inhibition of growth rate), indicating potential risks to aquatic ecosystems. The results confirmed the ability of this microcosm system as a rapid tool to assess biosolid toxicity over time and its potential for hazardous waste characterization in environmental risk assessment, in a screening phase. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Assessment of optimum aquatic microcosm design for pollution impact studies

    SciTech Connect

    Harte, J.; Levy, D.; Rees, J.; Saegebarth, E.

    1981-08-01

    A series of experiments was carried out to evaluate optimum design and operating conditions for pelagic lake microcosms and to explore a possible use of such systems for toxicological testing. Criteria selected for microcosm optimization were realism and replicability of identically initiated microcosms. In the assessment studies, a number of different pelagic microcosm configurations were studied, including the size of the microcosm containers, the method of algal surface-growth prevention, and the degree of water mixing and aeration. In addition, the microcosm-lake comparisons were carried out in various seasons of the years to determine the influence of natural seasonal factors on the chemical and biological differences between the lakes and microcosms. In all but the smallest microcosms, surface-growth prevention removed size dependence. Chemical nutrients tracked well except during periods when nutrient inputs to the lake from the surrounding watershed were high. Good tracking of phytoplankton succession patterns was observed only when the physical conditions of the lake matched well with those in the laboratory system. In the decomposition studies, additions of dead organic matter to the lake microcosms were made, and the subsequent response of mineralization activity was measured. Highly replicable and interesting short-term behavior was seen, implying that protocols can be developed for microcosm testing of effects of toxicants on mineralization rates. On the basis of the microcosm assessment and decomposition studies, it was concluded that appropriate applications of pelagic microcosms are limited, and those applications that are most appropriate are delineated.

  5. Aquatic risk assessment of a novel strobilurin fungicide: A microcosm study compared with the species sensitivity distribution approach.

    PubMed

    Chen, Lang; Song, Yufang; Tang, Baohua; Song, Xueying; Yang, Hairong; Li, Baiyu; Zhao, Yu; Huang, Chengtian; Han, Xue; Wang, Shaoye; Li, Zhaoli

    2015-10-01

    The ecotoxicological effects of pyraoxystrobin, a novel strobilurin fungicide, were studied using outdoor freshwater microcosms and the species sensitivity distribution approach. The microcosms were treated with pyraoxystrobin at concentrations of 0, 1.0, 3.0, 10, 30 and 100µg/L. Species sensitivity distribution (SSD) curves were constructed by means of acute toxicity data using the BurrliOZ model for fourteen representatives of sensitive invertebrates, algae and fish and eleven taxa of invertebrates and algae, respectively. The responses of zooplankton, phytoplankton and physical and chemical endpoints in microcosms were studied. Zooplankton, especially Sinodiaptomus sarsi was the most sensitive to pyraoxystrobin exposure in the microcosms. Short-term toxic effects (<8 weeks) on zooplankton occurred in 1µg/L treatment group. The duration of toxic effects on S. sarsi could not be evaluated within the initial 56 days. Significant long-term toxic effects were observed at 10, 30 and 100µg/L (>281 days) for S. sarsi and the zooplankton community. Based on the results obtained from the organisms in the microcosm system, 1µg/L was recommended as the NOEAEC (no observed ecologically adverse effect concentration). Also, 0.33µg/L was derived as the Regulatory Acceptable Concentration based on the ecological recovery option (ERO-RAC) of pyraoxystrobin. For all fourteen tested species, the median HC5 (hazardous concentration affecting 5% of species) was 0.86µg/L, and the lower limit HC5 (LL-HC5) was 0.39µg/L. For the eleven taxa of invertebrates and algae tested, the median HC5 was 1.1µg/L, and the LL-HC5 was 0.26µg/L. The present study positively contributes to the suggestion of adequately using acute L(E)C50-based HC5/ LL-HC5 for deriving protective concentrations for strobilurin fungicides, and it should be valuable for full comprehension of the potential toxicity of pyraoxystrobin in aquatic ecosystems. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. A microcosm study to support aquatic risk assessment of nickel: Community-level effects and comparison with bioavailability-normalized species sensitivity distributions.

    PubMed

    Hommen, Udo; Knopf, Burkhard; Rüdel, Heinz; Schäfers, Christoph; De Schamphelaere, Karel; Schlekat, Chris; Garman, Emily Rogevich

    2016-05-01

    The aquatic risk assessment for nickel (Ni) in the European Union is based on chronic species sensitivity distributions and the use of bioavailability models. To test whether a bioavailability-based safe threshold of Ni (the hazardous concentration for 5% of species [HC5]) is protective for aquatic communities, microcosms were exposed to 5 stable Ni treatments (6-96 μg/L) and a control for 4 mo to assess bioaccumulation and effects on phytoplankton, periphyton, zooplankton, and snails. Concentrations of Ni in the periphyton, macrophytes, and snails measured at the end of the exposure period increased in a dose-dependent manner but did not indicate biomagnification. Abundance of phytoplankton and snails decreased in 48 μg Ni/L and 96 μg Ni/L treatments, which may have indirectly affected the abundance of zooplankton and periphyton. Exposure up to 24 μg Ni/L had no adverse effects on algae and zooplankton, whereas the rate of population decline of the snails at 24 μg Ni/L was significantly higher than in the controls. Therefore, the study-specific overall no-observed-adverse-effect concentration (NOAEC) is 12 μg Ni/L. This NOAEC is approximately twice the HC5 derived from a chronic species sensitivity distribution considering the specific water chemistry of the microcosm by means of bioavailability models. Thus, the present study provides support to the protectiveness of the bioavailability-normalized HC5 for freshwater communities. © 2015 The Authors. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of SETAC.

  7. Assessment of optimum aquatic microcosm design for pollution-impact studies. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Harte, J.; Levy, D.; Rees, J.; Saegebarth, E.

    1980-09-01

    A series of experiments was carried out to determine and evaluate optimum design and operating conditions for pelagic lake microcosms (microcosm assessment studies) and to explore a possible use of such systems for toxicological testing (decomposition studies). Criteria selected for microcosm optimization were realism (tracking by the microcosms of the real lake used to stock the microcosms) and replicability of identically-initiated microcosms. In the assessment studies, a number of different pelagic microcosm configurations were studied, including the size of the microcosm containers (from 4 liters to 200 liters), the method of algal surface-growth prevention, and the degree of water mixing and aeration. In addition, the microcosm-lake comparisons were carried out at various seasons of the year, allowing us to determine the influence of natural seasonal factors on the chemical and biological differences between the lakes and the microcosms.

  8. Persistence of nucleic acid markers of health-relevant organisms in seawater microcosms: implications for their use in assessing risk in recreational waters.

    PubMed

    Walters, Sarah P; Yamahara, Kevan M; Boehm, Alexandria B

    2009-11-01

    In the last decade, the use of culture-independent methods for detecting indicator organisms and pathogens in recreational waters has increased and has led to heightened interest in their use for routine water quality monitoring. However, a thorough understanding of the persistence of genetic markers in environmental waters is lacking. In the present study, we evaluate the persistence of enterococci, enterovirus, and human-specific Bacteroidales in seawater microcosms. Two microcosms consisted of seawater seeded with human sewage. Two additional seawater microcosms were seeded with naked Enterococcus faecium DNA and poliovirus RNA. One of each replicate microcosm was exposed to natural sunlight; the other was kept in complete darkness. In the sewage microcosms, concentrations of enterococci and enterovirus were measured using standard culture-dependent methods as well as QPCR and RT-QPCR respectively. Concentrations of human-specific Bacteroidales were determined with QPCR. In the naked-genome microcosms, enterococci and enterovirus markers were enumerated using QPCR and RT-QPCR, respectively. In the sewage microcosm exposed to sunlight, concentrations of culturable enterococci fell below the detection limit within 5 days, but the QPCR signal persisted until the end of the experiment (day 28). Culturable enterococci did not persist as long as infectious enteroviruses. The ability to culture enteroviruses and enterococci was lost before detection of the genetic markers was lost, but the human-specific Bacteroidales QPCR signal persisted for a similar duration as infectious enteroviruses in the sewage microcosm exposed to sunlight. In the naked-genome microcosms, DNA and RNA from enterococci and enterovirus, respectively, persisted for over 10d and did not vary between the light and dark treatments. These results indicate differential persistence of genetic markers and culturable organisms of public health relevance in an environmental matrix and have important

  9. Aquatic toxicity of ivermectin in cattle dung assessed using microcosms.

    PubMed

    Mesa, Leticia M; Lindt, I; Negro, L; Gutierrez, M F; Mayora, G; Montalto, L; Ballent, M; Lifschitz, A

    2017-10-01

    Ivermectin (IVM) is a parasiticide widely used for livestock. It is a semisynthetic derivative of avermectin, a macrocyclic lactone produced by Streptomyces avermitilis. This drug is only partly metabolized by livestock; considerable amounts of parent drug are excreted mostly via feces. To simulate exposure of aquatic invertebrates and macrophytes to direct excretion of cattle dung into surface waters, a microcosm experiment with IVM spiked in cattle dung was conducted. The objectives of this study were to characterize accumulation of IVM in water, sediment+dung, roots of the floating fern Salvinia and the zooplankton Ceriodaphnia dubia, the amphipod Hyalella and the apple snail Pomacea; to determine the effect of this drug spiked in cattle dung on life-history traits of these invertebrates; and to evaluate the influence of IVM on aquatic nutrient cycling. Dung was spiked with IVM to attain concentrations of 1150, 458, 50 and 22µgkg(-1)dung fresh weight, approximating those found in cattle dung at days 3, 7, 16 and 29 following subcutaneous injection. Concentrations found in dung during the first week of excretion were lethally toxic to Ceriodaphnia dubia and Hyalella, whereas no mortality was observed in Pomacea. Concentrations of IVM in roots, sediment + dung and Pomacea increased significantly from the lowest to the highest treatment level. The effect of this drug on decomposition and release of nutrients from dung would have negative consequences for nutrient cycling in water. Increasing concentrations in sediment + dung with days of the experiment suggested that toxic concentrations would persist for an extended period in the water-sediment system. IVM represents an ecological risk for aquatic ecosystems, underscoring the need for livestock management strategies to limit its entry into water bodies. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Aquatic microcosm assessment of the effects of tylosin on Lemna gibba and Myriophyllum spicatum.

    PubMed

    Brain, Richard A; Bestari, Ketut Jim; Sanderson, Hans; Hanson, Mark L; Wilson, Christian J; Johnson, David J; Sibley, Paul K; Solomon, Keith R

    2005-02-01

    Tylosin is a macrolide antibiotic commonly used for therapeutic treatment and prophylaxis in livestock. As part of a larger ecotoxicological study, the potential phytotoxic effects of tylosin on the rooted macrophyte Myriophyllum spicatum and the floating macrophyte Lemna gibba were assessed under semi-field conditions using 15 12 000-L microcosms. Concentrations of 0, 10, 30, 300 microg/L (n = 3), and 600, 1000, and 3000 microg/L (n = 1) were evaluated as part of separate ANOVA and regression analyses over an exposure period of 35 days. Fate of tylosin was monitored over time in the highest three treatments, where dissipation followed pseudo-first order kinetics with associated half-lives ranging from 9 to 10 days. For both M. spicatum and L. gibba, tylosin was found to cause no biologically significant changes to any endpoint assessed compared to controls at a Type I error rate of 0.1. However, subsequent power analyses revealed that there was generally insufficient power to declare that there were no significant differences at a Type II error rate of 0.2. Conclusions concerning biologically significant impacts were therefore further assessed based on other statistical criteria including comparisons of percent differences between replicated treatments and controls, minimum significant and minimum detectable differences, and coefficients of variation. Based on these criteria, at an ecological effect size of >20% change, tylosin was concluded to elicit no biologically or ecologically significant toxicity to M. spicatum or L. gibba. A hazard quotient assessment indicated that tylosin poses little risk to either species of macrophyte, with an HQ value calculated to be nearly three orders of magnitude below 1 (0.002).

  11. Assessment of contaminated sediments with an indoor freshwater/sediment microcosm assay.

    PubMed

    Triffault-Bouchet, Gaëlle; Clément, Bernard; Blake, Gérard

    2005-09-01

    This study was conducted to assess the feasibility of using a 2-L, indoor microcosm assay to evaluate five contaminated sediments (A, B, C, D, and E). Toxic potential was deduced in the light of general contamination of sediments, pollutant partitioning in microcosms, and biological responses of species (Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata, Lemna minor, Daphnia magna, Hyalella azteca, Chironomus riparius): E > A > B > C > D. Sediments mainly were contaminated by metals (lead and zinc). Organic pollutant contents varied among the sediments. The major polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) compounds were pyrene, fluoranthene, and phenanthrene. Sediments A, B, and C highly stimulated duckweed growth (> 700%) and impaired daphnid (< 20%) and amphipod survival (< 30%). Sediment D had no significant effect on pelagic and benthic organisms. Finally, sediment E, the most toxic, limited duckweed growth (inhibition of 82%) and impaired daphnid survival (0% of survival). Amphipods were impaired dramatically by this sediment (0% of survival), in contrast with chironomids, for which no toxic effect was measured. The 2-L, indoor microcosm assay successfully was applied to the assessment of those five contaminated sediments. Sediments A, B, C, and E should not be deposited in gravel quarries, and new, more sensitive endpoint measurements should be developed.

  12. Environmental assessment of a phthalate ester, Di(2-Ethylhexyl) phthalate (DEHP), derived from a marine microcosm

    SciTech Connect

    Perez, K.T.; Davey, E.W.; Lackie, N.F.; Morrison, G.E.; Murphy, P.G.; Soper, A.E.; Winslow, D.L.

    1981-10-01

    This study tested the influence of system complexity on the environmental assessment of a chemical. Marine microcosms were perturbed with a phthalate ester, di(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (DEHP). Concentrations of 1, 10, and 100 ..mu..g of DEHP per litre were added to the water-column subsystem of marine microcosms for 30 days during the summer (18/sup 0/C) and winter (1/sup 0/C) seasons. Significant portions of the DEHP losses from the water-column subsystem during the experiments were due to the complete breakdown of the parent compound to carbon dioxide (CO/sub 2/). In the benthic subsystem, DEHP concentrations in the sediment were increased by more than 50 and 250 times the concentration in the water column during the winter and summer seasons, respectively. Statistically significant (..cap alpha.. = 0.05) reductions in the fluxes of ammonia (NH/sub 3/) from the benthic subsystem were observed in microcosms receiving 100 ..mu..g of DEHP per litre during the summer. Concentrations of DEHP in selected bivalves ranged from 174 to 229 000 ..mu..g of DEHP per wet kilogram, depending upon the water column exposure concentrations and the season of the year.

  13. Assessing the Response of Nematode Communities to Climate Change-Driven Warming: A Microcosm Experiment

    PubMed Central

    Gingold, Ruth; Moens, Tom; Rocha-Olivares, Axayácatl

    2013-01-01

    Biodiversity has diminished over the past decades with climate change being among the main responsible factors. One consequence of climate change is the increase in sea surface temperature, which, together with long exposure periods in intertidal areas, may exceed the tolerance level of benthic organisms. Benthic communities may suffer structural changes due to the loss of species or functional groups, putting ecological services at risk. In sandy beaches, free-living marine nematodes usually are the most abundant and diverse group of intertidal meiofauna, playing an important role in the benthic food web. While apparently many functionally similar nematode species co-exist temporally and spatially, experimental results on selected bacterivore species suggest no functional overlap, but rather an idiosyncratic contribution to ecosystem functioning. However, we hypothesize that functional redundancy is more likely to observe when taking into account the entire diversity of natural assemblages. We conducted a microcosm experiment with two natural communities to assess their stress response to elevated temperature. The two communities differed in diversity (high [HD] vs. low [LD]) and environmental origin (harsh vs. moderate conditions). We assessed their stress resistance to the experimental treatment in terms of species and diversity changes, and their function in terms of abundance, biomass, and trophic diversity. According to the Insurance Hypothesis, we hypothesized that the HD community would cope better with the stressful treatment due to species functional overlap, whereas the LD community functioning would benefit from species better adapted to harsh conditions. Our results indicate no evidence of functional redundancy in the studied nematofaunal communities. The species loss was more prominent and size specific in the HD; large predators and omnivores were lost, which may have important consequences for the benthic food web. Yet, we found evidence for

  14. Assessing microbial responses to iron enrichment in the Subarctic Northeast Pacific: Do microcosms reproduce the in situ condition?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scarratt, M. G.; Marchetti, A.; Hale, M. S.; Rivkin, R. B.; Michaud, S.; Matthews, P.; Levasseur, M.; Sherry, N.; Merzouk, A.; Li, W. K. W.; Kiyosawa, H.

    2006-10-01

    A microcosm experiment was conducted in the NE Pacific in July 2002 to compare the microbial response between microcosms and the Subarctic Ecosystem Response to Iron-Enrichment Study (SERIES) in situ iron-enrichment experiment. Seawater microcosms (20 L) were incubated aboard ship under natural light using three treatments: (1) low-iron seawater amended with 4 nmol l -1 FeSO 4 (+Fe); (2) low-iron seawater amended with 4 nmol l -1 FeSO 4 and 86 nmol l -1 GeO 2 (+Fe+Ge); (3) seawater collected from the in situ Fe-enriched patch (PW). The +Fe+Ge treatment used germanium to control diatom growth to assess the role of diatoms in dimethylsulfoniopropionate (DMSP) production. The following variables were measured in the microcosms and in situ: chlorophyll a (chl a), nitrate ( NO3-), silicic acid (Si(OH) 4), phytoplankton abundance and species identification, bacterial abundance (including estimates of low- and high-DNA bacteria), bacterial production, bacterial specific growth rate, particulate and dissolved DMSP and dimethylsulfide (DMS) concentrations. There was little or no significant difference (ANCOVA) in the response of most variables between the +Fe and PW microcosms, but large differences were observed between both these treatments and the in situ data from the enriched patch. Chl a in all microcosms increased from ambient levels (approx. 0.5-1 μg l -1) to approx. 4.5-6.2 μg l -1 after 11 d incubation, when NO3- was fully depleted from all microcosms. During this same period, in situ chl a increased more slowly to a maximum of 2.9 μg l -1 on day 11. Nanophytoplankton and picophytoplankton were more abundant in the microcosms relative to the in situ community, which became dominated by large diatoms. Bacterial abundance was similar in the microcosms and in situ, but bacterial production was significantly higher in the microcosms. While neither DMSP d nor DMS accumulation showed significant differences between the microcosms and in situ , particulate DMSP

  15. Evaluation of terrestrial microcosms for assessing the fate and effects of genetically engineered microorganisms on ecological processes

    SciTech Connect

    Fredrickson, J.K.; Bentjen, S.A.; Bolton, H. Jr.; Li, S.W.; Ligotke, M.W.; McFadden, K.M.; Van Voris, P.

    1989-04-01

    This project evaluates and modifies the existing US Environmental Protection Agency's Office of Pesticides and Toxic Substances (EPA/OPTS) terrestrial microcosm test system and test protocols such that they can be used to determine the environmental fate and ecological hazards of genetically engineered microorganisms (GEMs). The intact soil-core microcosm represents terrestrial ecosystems, and when coupled with appropriate test protocols, such microcosms may be appropriate to define and limit risks associated with the intentional release of GEMs. The terrestrial microcosm test system was used to investigate the survival and transport of two model GEMs (Azospirillum lipoferum and Pseudomonas sp. Tn5 mutants) to various trophic levels and niches and through intact soil cores. Subsequent effects on nutrient cycling and displacement of indigenous microorganisms were evaluated. The model organisms were a diazotrophic root-colonizing bacterium (A. lipoferum) and a wheat root growth-inhibiting rhizobacterium (Pseudomonas sp.). The transposable element Tn5 was used as a genetic marker for both microorganisms in two separate experiments. The organisms were subjected to transposon mutagenesis using a broad host-range-mobilizable suicide plasmid. The transposon Tn5 conferred levels of kanamycin resistance up to 500 ..mu..g/ml (Pseudomonas sp.), which allowed for selection of the bacteria from environmental samples. The presence of Tn5 DNA in the genome of the model GEMs also allowed the use of Tn5 gene probes to confirm and enumerate the microorganisms in different samples from the microcosms. Two types of root growth-inhibiting Pseudomonas sp. Tn5 mutants were obtained and used in microcosm studies: those that lacked the ability to inhibit either wheat root growth or the growth of other microorganisms in vitro (tox/sup /minus//) and those which retained these properties (tox/sup +/). 53 refs., 7 figs., 6 tabs.

  16. Risk assessment methodologies for biotechnology impact assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gillett, James W.

    1986-07-01

    By combining hazard assessment of effects of a potential biotechnology product with exposure assessments based on study of the genetically engineered organism's fate, conclusions may be reached about the risk involved in release of the product to the environment. In order to make this risk assessment, criteria (including regulatory endpoints) must be established and then developed further against a data base from well-accepted tests. Other aspects requiring research and development include test evaluation, quality assurance, statistical procedures, and methods of identifying and monitoring not only the nominal organism(s) in the products, but also any contaminating material or organisms to which the genetically engineered components may be transferred in the environment. Application of microcosm technology to testing of genetically engineered organisms is expected to be important, since these systems may be used safely to understand fate and effects prior to (or in place of) testing the product in the environment. Limitations in the use of microcosms may be offset by the cost-effectiveness and incisiveness of results, as has been shown for other pollutants. Risk management for biotechnology products currently lacks an adequate background, but components of the process exist or can be developed. New resources, in terms of personnel, training, facilities, and funding, will be needed in order to apply the risk assessment paradigm used for toxic chemicals and pesticides. We will need to know:

  17. Evaluation of aquatic sediment microcosms and their use in assessing possible effects of introduced microorganisms on ecosystem parameters

    SciTech Connect

    Wagner-Doebler, I.; Pipke, R.; Timmis, K.N.; Dwyer, D.F. )

    1992-04-01

    In this paper the authors describe a sediment microcosm system consisting of 20 undisturbed, layered sediment cores with overlying site water which are incubated under identical conditions of temperature, light stirring rate of overlying water, and water exchange rate. Ecosystem parameters (nutrient level, photosynthetic potential, community structure of heterotrophic bacterium thymidine incorporation rate, and oxygen microgradients) of the laboratory microcosms and the source ecosystem were compared and shown to be indistinguishable for the first 2 weeks. The microcosm system described here would thus appear to be a valid model of aquatic sediments for up to 4 weeks; the actual period would depend on the sediment source and incubation temperature. The validated systems were used with Rhine river sediment to assess possible effects on ecosystem parameters of Pseudomonas sp. strain B13 FR1(pFRC20P), a genetically engineered microorganism (GEM) survived in the surface sediment at densities of 5 {times} 10{sup 4} to 5 {times} 10{sup 5}/g (dry weight) for 4 weeks and degraded added chloro- and methylaromatics. The GEM did not measurably influence ecosystem parameters such as photosynthesis, densities of selected heterotrophic bacteria, thymidine incorporation rate, and oxygen microgradients. Thus, the microcosm system described here would seem to be useful for the study of the ecology of biodegradation and the fate and effect of microorganisms introduced into the environment.

  18. Application of microcosmic system for assessment of insecticide effects on biomarker responses in ecologically different earthworm species.

    PubMed

    Velki, Mirna; Hackenberger, Branimir K; Lončarić, Zeljka; Hackenberger, Davorka K

    2014-06-01

    Earthworms from different ecological categories--epigeic Eisenia andrei and Lumbricus rubellus, endogeic Octolasion lacteum and anecic Lumbricus terrestris--were exposed in a microcosmic system to three commonly used insecticides. The effects of the insecticides were evaluated by measuring the following molecular biomarkers-the activities of AChE, CES, CAT, GST and the concentration of GSH. The results showed that environmentally relevant doses of organophosphates dimethoate and pirimiphos-methyl significantly affected the measured biomarkers, whereas pyrethroid deltamethrin did not affect the earthworms at the recommended agricultural dose. Considering the ecological category of earthworms, the results were inhomogeneous and species-specific differences in the biomarker responses were recorded. Since the biomarker responses of the investigated earthworm species were different after exposure to organophosphates in a microcosm compared to the exposure via standardized toxicity tests, two types of species sensitivity should be distinguished-physiological and environmental sensitivity. In addition, the hormetic effect of organophosphates on AChE and CES activities was recorded. The detection of hormesis in a microcosm is of great importance for future environmental research and soil biomonitoring, since in a realistic environment pollutants usually occur at low concentrations that could cause a hormetic effect. The results demonstrate the importance of the application of microcosmic systems in the assessment of the effects of environmental pollutants and the necessity of taking into account the possible differences between physiological and environmental species sensitivity.

  19. Microcosm for assessing survival of genetically engineered microorganisms in aquatic environments

    SciTech Connect

    Awong, J.; Bitton, G.; Chaudhry, G.R. )

    1990-04-01

    Laboratory-contained microcosms are important for studying the fate and survival of genetically engineered microorganisms. In this study, we describe a simple aquatic microcosm that utilizes survival chambers in a flow through or static renewal system. The model was used to study the survival of genetically engineered and wild-type strains of Escherichia coli and Pseudomonas putida in the lake water environment. Temperature-dependent studies indicated that the genetically engineered microorganisms survived better or at least as well as their wild-type counterparts at 15, 25, and 30{degree}C. The genetic determinants of the genetically engineered microorganisms also remained fairly stable within the host cell under the tested conditions. In the presence of organisms indigenous to lake water, E. coli was eliminated after 20 days, whereas P. putida showed an initial decline but was able to stabilize its population after 5 days. A herbicide, Hydrothol-191, caused a significant decline in numbers of P. putida, but no significant difference was observed between the genetically engineered microorganisms and the wild-type strain. The microcosm described is simple, can be easily adapted to study a variety of environmental variables, and has the advantage that the organisms tested are constantly exposed to test waters that are continuously renewed.

  20. Recent advances in the use of estuarine meiobenthos to assess contaminated sediment effects in multi-species whole sediment microcosms

    SciTech Connect

    Chandler, G.T.; Coull, B.C.; Schizas, N.V.; Donelan, T.L.

    1995-12-31

    Many marine meiobenthic taxa (i.e. invertebrates passing a 1-mm sieve but retaining on a 0.063 mm sieve) are ideal for ``whole-sediment`` and porewater bioassay of sedimented pollutants. Annual production of meiobenthos is 5--10 times that of the more commonly studied macrobenthos, and > 95% of all meiobenthos live in the oxic zone of muddy sediments at densities of 4--12 million per M{sup 2}. Most spend their entire lifecycles, burrowing freely and feeding on/within the sediment:porewater matrix, many taxa undergo 10--14 generations per year, most larval/juvenile stages are benthic, and many have easily quantifiable reproductive output. Furthermore, many meiobenthic taxa can be cultured indefinitely over multiple life-cycles within simple sediment microcosms consisting of sealed whole-sediment cores collected intact from intertidal mudflats. The authors describe several recent technical developments exploiting meiofaunal sediment culture for rapid contaminated sediment bioassays of toxicant effects on survival, reproduction and population growth of meiobenthic taxa in whole-sediment microcosms. Currently meiobenthic copepods, nematodes, foraminifers and polychaetes are being continuously cultured to study these parameters under exposure to model sediment-associated toxicants (e.g. cadmium). Bioassays are run for 21-d under flowing seawater. With this approach, fertile benthic copepods (e.g. Amphiascus tenuiremis) can be added to core microcosms to assess survival and growth of a fixed population cohort. All other meiobenthic taxa are enumerated relative to controls and evaluated for toxicant effects on higher order community-level endpoints. This approach exploits meiobenthos` high abundance and rapid reproductive rates to yield on a micro scale better endpoints than much larger sediment mesocosms targeted at macrofaunal endpoints.

  1. A microcosm system and an analytical protocol to assess PAH degradation and metabolite formation in soils.

    PubMed

    Arias, Lida; Bauzá, Jorge; Tobella, Joana; Vila, Joaquim; Grifoll, Magdalena

    2008-06-01

    During bioremediation of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH)-polluted soils accumulation of polar metabolites resulting from the biological activity may occur. Since these polar metabolites are potentially more toxic than the parental products, a better understanding of the processes involved in the production and fate of these oxidation products in soil is needed. In the present work we describe the design and set-up of a static soil microcosm system and an analytical methodology for detection of PAHs and their oxidation products in soils. When applied to a soil contaminated with phenanthrene, as a model PAH, and 1-hydroxy-2-naphthoic acid, diphenic acid, and phthalic acid as putative metabolites, the extraction and fractionation procedures resulted in recoveries of 93%, 89%, 100%, and 89%, respectively. The application of the standardized system to study the biodegradation of phenanthrene in an agricultural soil with and without inoculation of the high molecular weight PAH-degrading strain Mycobacterium sp. AP1, demonstrates its suitability for determining the environmental fate of PAHs in polluted soils and for evaluating the effect of bioremediative treatments. In inoculated microcosms 35% of the added phenanthrene was depleted, 19% being recovered as CO(2) and 3% as diphenic acid. The latter, together with other two unidentified metabolites, accumulated in soil.

  2. Use of aerobic and anaerobic microcosms to assess BTEX biodegradation in aquifers

    SciTech Connect

    Salanitro, J.P.; Wisniewski, H.L.; Byers, D.L.; Neaville, C.C.; Schroder, R.A.

    1997-12-01

    The natural attenuation of soluble aromatic hydrocarbons (BTEX) in aquifer plumes is controlled by several factors, including the concentration of BTEX and dissolved oxygen (DO) or other electron acceptors (EA), hydrogeological factors (dispersion, dilution, aquifer reaeration rate), and the presence of BTEX-degrading microbes. The authors have investigated three laboratory soil and/or well water systems (aerobic, anaerobic, and chronic low DO) which may represent field plume conditions. Microcosms prepared with sufficient DO always degraded hydrocarbons ({le}10,000 ppb) at high rates ({ge}0.10/d) with no lag phase. Experimental simulations of chronic low DO were performed in a pressure transducer-controlled respirometer in which O{sub 2} was maintained at constant low levels. BTX also biodegraded rapidly at all DO levels.

  3. Assessing local planning to control groundwater depletion: California as a microcosm of global issues

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nelson, Rebecca L.

    2012-01-01

    Groundwater pumping has caused excessive groundwater depletion around the world, yet regulating pumping remains a profound challenge. California uses more groundwater than any other U.S. state, and serves as a microcosm of the adverse effects of pumping felt worldwide—land subsidence, impaired water quality, and damaged ecosystems, all against the looming threat of climate change. The state largely entrusts the control of depletion to the local level. This study uses internationally accepted water resources planning theories systematically to investigate three key aspects of controlling groundwater depletion in California, with an emphasis on local-level action: (a) making decisions and engaging stakeholders; (b) monitoring groundwater; and (c) using mandatory, fee-based and voluntary approaches to control groundwater depletion (e.g., pumping restrictions, pumping fees, and education about water conservation, respectively). The methodology used is the social science-derived technique of content analysis, which involves using a coding scheme to record these three elements in local rules and plans, and State legislation, then analyzing patterns and trends. The study finds that Californian local groundwater managers rarely use, or plan to use, mandatory and fee-based measures to control groundwater depletion. Most use only voluntary approaches or infrastructure to attempt to reduce depletion, regardless of whether they have more severe groundwater problems, or problems which are more likely to have irreversible adverse effects. The study suggests legal reforms to the local groundwater planning system, drawing upon its empirical findings. Considering the content of these recommendations may also benefit other jurisdictions that use a local groundwater management planning paradigm.

  4. Assessing effects of the fungicide tebuconazole to heterotrophic microbes in aquatic microcosms.

    PubMed

    Dimitrov, Mauricio R; Kosol, Sujitra; Smidt, Hauke; Buijse, Laura; Van den Brink, Paul J; Van Wijngaarden, René P A; Brock, Theo C M; Maltby, Lorraine

    2014-08-15

    Aquatic ecological risk assessment of fungicides in Europe under Regulation 1107/2009/EC does not currently assess risk to non-target bacteria and fungi. Rather, regulatory acceptable concentrations based on ecotoxicological data obtained from studies with fish, invertebrates and primary producers (including algae) are assumed to be protective to all other aquatic organisms. Here we explore the validity of this assumption by investigating the effects of a fungicide (tebuconazole) applied at its "non-microbial" HC5 concentration (the concentration that is hazardous to 5% of the tested taxa) and derived from acute single species toxicity tests on fish, invertebrates and primary producers (including algae) on the community structure and functioning of heterotrophic microbes (bacteria and aquatic fungi) in a semi-field study, using novel molecular techniques. In our study, a treatment-related effect of tebuconazole (238 μg/L) on either fungal biomass associated with leaf material or leaf decomposition or the composition of the fungal community associated with sediment could not be demonstrated. Moreover, treatment-related effects on bacterial communities associated with sediment and leaf material were not detected. However, tebuconazole exposure did significantly reduce conidia production and altered fungal community composition associated with leaf material. An effect on a higher trophic level was observed when Gammarus pulex were fed tebuconazole-exposed leaves, which caused a significant decrease in their feeding rate. Therefore, tebuconazole may affect aquatic fungi and fungally mediated processes even when applied at its "non-microbial" HC5 concentration. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. The University as Microcosm

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kaldis, Byron

    2009-01-01

    This paper puts forward the model of "microcosm-macrocosm" isomorphism encapsulated in certain philosophical views on the form of university education. The human being as a "microcosm" should reflect internally the external "macrocosm". Higher Education is a socially instituted attempt to guide human beings into forming themselves as microcosms of…

  6. The University as Microcosm

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kaldis, Byron

    2009-01-01

    This paper puts forward the model of "microcosm-macrocosm" isomorphism encapsulated in certain philosophical views on the form of university education. The human being as a "microcosm" should reflect internally the external "macrocosm". Higher Education is a socially instituted attempt to guide human beings into forming themselves as microcosms of…

  7. Can the algicidal material Ca-aminoclay be harmful when applied to a natural ecosystem? An assessment using microcosms.

    PubMed

    Jung, Seung Won; Yun, Suk Min; Yoo, Jae Won; Zhun, Li; Jang, Pung-Guk; Lim, Dhong-Il; Lee, Young-Chul; Lee, Hyun Uk; Lee, Taek-Kyun; Heo, Jinbee; Lee, Jin Hwan; Han, Myung-Soo

    2015-11-15

    We assessed the ability of an artificial clay (Ca-aminoclay) to suppress harmful algal bloom species (HABs) such as Cochlodinium polykrikoides and Chattonella marina and investigated the ecological responses in the closed and open microcosm systems. The Ca-aminoclay induced rapidly and selectively cell lysis in the HABs. However, applying Ca-aminoclay could cause adverse impacts in terms of biological and environmental changes. The bacterioplankton abundance increased and then, the abundances of heterotrophic nanoflagellates and ciliates increased rapidly. Extremely poor environmental conditions such as increase in nutrients and development of anoxic conditions were sustained continuously in a closed system, while the environmental conditions in open systems deteriorated before recovering to the initial conditions. We evaluated the potential for the occurrence of a bloom of another phytoplankton after HABs had been controlled using the Ca-aminoclay. The Ca-aminoclay controlled blooms of Chattonella marina in mixed cell cultures containing a Tetraselmis chui. However, T. chui increased over time and then bloomed. Therefore, caution should be taken when considering the direct application of Ca-aminoclay in natural environments even though it offers the rapid removal of HABs.

  8. Hepatitis Risk Assessment

    MedlinePlus

    ... please visit this page: About CDC.gov . Hepatitis Risk Assessment Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir Viral Hepatitis. Are you at risk? Take this 5 minute Hepatitis Risk Assessment developed ...

  9. Comparison of laboratory batch and flow-through microcosm bioassays.

    PubMed

    Clément, Bernard J P; Delhaye, Hélène L; Triffault-Bouchet, Gaëlle G

    2014-10-01

    Since 1997, we have been developing a protocol for ecotoxicological bioassays in 2-L laboratory microcosms and have applied it to the study of various pollutants and ecotoxicological risk assessment scenarios in the area of urban facilities and transport infrastructures. The effects on five different organisms (micro-algae, duckweeds, daphnids, amphipods, chironomids) are assessed using biological responses such as growth, emergence (chironomids), reproduction (daphnids) and survival, with a duration of exposure of 3 weeks. This bioassay has mainly been used as a batch bioassay, i.e., the water was not renewed during the test. A flow-through microcosm bioassay has been developed recently, with the assumption that conditions for the biota should be improved, variability reduced, and the range of exposure patterns enlarged (e.g., the possibility of maintaining constant exposure in the water column). This paper compares the results obtained in batch and flow-through microcosm bioassays, using cadmium as a model toxicant. As expected, the stabilization of physico-chemical parameters, increased organism fitness and reduced variability were observed in the flow-through microcosm bioassay.

  10. Risk Assessment: Evidence Base

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Johnson-Throop, Kathy A.

    2007-01-01

    Human systems PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment: a) Provides quantitative measures of probability, consequence, and uncertainty; and b) Communicates risk and informs decision-making. Human health risks rated highest in ISS PRA are based on 1997 assessment of clinical events in analog operational settings. Much work remains to analyze remaining human health risks identified in Bioastronautics Roadmap.

  11. RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENTS - RESIDUAL RISK ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This source category previously subjected to a technology-based standard will be examined to determine if health or ecological risks are significant enough to warrant further regulation for Coke Ovens. These assesments utilize existing models and data bases to examine the multi-media and multi-pollutant impacts of air toxics emissions on human health and the environment. Details on the assessment process and methodologies can be found in EPA's Residual Risk Report to Congress issued in March of 1999 (see web site). To assess the health risks imposed by air toxics emissions from Coke Ovens to determine if control technology standards previously established are adequately protecting public health.

  12. GM Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sparrow, Penny A. C.

    GM risk assessments play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of a GM risk assessment will be to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to assess any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all ‘what if’ scenarios, based on scientific evidence.

  13. GM Risk Assessment.

    PubMed

    Sparrow, Penny A C

    2009-01-01

    GM risk assessments play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of a GM risk assessment will be to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to assess any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all 'what if' scenarios, based on scientific evidence. This chapter sets out to provide researchers with helpful guidance notes on producing their own GM risk assessment. While reference will be made to UK and EU regulations, the underlying principles and points to consider are generic to most countries.

  14. Strategic Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Derleth, Jason; Lobia, Marcus

    2009-01-01

    This slide presentation provides an overview of the attempt to develop and demonstrate a methodology for the comparative assessment of risks across the entire portfolio of NASA projects and assets. It includes information about strategic risk identification, normalizing strategic risks, calculation of relative risk score, and implementation options.

  15. Pollinator Risk Assessment Guidance

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This Guidance is part of a long-term strategy to advance the science of assessing the risks posed by pesticides to honey bees, giving risk managers the means to further improve pollinator protection in our regulatory decisions.

  16. Quantitative microbiological risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Hoornstra, E; Notermans, S

    2001-05-21

    The production of safe food is being increasingly based on the use of risk analysis, and this process is now in use to establish national and international food safety objectives. It is also being used more frequently to guarantee that safety objectives are met and that such guarantees are achieved in a cost-effective manner. One part of the overall risk analysis procedure-risk assessment-is the scientific process in which the hazards and risk factors are identified, and the risk estimate or risk profile is determined. Risk assessment is an especially important tool for governments when food safety objectives have to be developed in the case of 'new' contaminants in known products or known contaminants causing trouble in 'new' products. Risk assessment is also an important approach for food companies (i) during product development, (ii) during (hygienic) process optimalization, and (iii) as an extension (validation) of the more qualitative HACCP-plan. This paper discusses these two different types of risk assessment, and uses probability distribution functions to assess the risks posed by Escherichia coli O157:H7 in each case. Such approaches are essential elements of risk management, as they draw on all available information to derive accurate and realistic estimations of the risk posed. The paper also discusses the potential of scenario-analysis in simulating the impact of different or modified risk factors during the consideration of new or improved control measures.

  17. Risk Assessment Overview

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Prassinos, Peter G.; Lyver, John W., IV; Bui, Chinh T.

    2011-01-01

    Risk assessment is used in many industries to identify and manage risks. Initially developed for use on aeronautical and nuclear systems, risk assessment has been applied to transportation, chemical, computer, financial, and security systems among others. It is used to gain an understanding of the weaknesses or vulnerabilities in a system so modification can be made to increase operability, efficiency, and safety and to reduce failure and down-time. Risk assessment results are primary inputs to risk-informed decision making; where risk information including uncertainty is used along with other pertinent information to assist management in the decision-making process. Therefore, to be useful, a risk assessment must be directed at specific objectives. As the world embraces the globalization of trade and manufacturing, understanding the associated risk become important to decision making. Applying risk assessment techniques to a global system of development, manufacturing, and transportation can provide insight into how the system can fail, the likelihood of system failure and the consequences of system failure. The risk assessment can identify those elements that contribute most to risk and identify measures to prevent and mitigate failures, disruptions, and damaging outcomes. In addition, risk associated with public and environment impact can be identified. The risk insights gained can be applied to making decisions concerning suitable development and manufacturing locations, supply chains, and transportation strategies. While risk assessment has been mostly applied to mechanical and electrical systems, the concepts and techniques can be applied across other systems and activities. This paper provides a basic overview of the development of a risk assessment.

  18. Biosafety Risk Assessment Methodology

    SciTech Connect

    Caskey, Susan Adele; Gaudioso, Jennifer M.; Salerno, Reynolds Mathewson; Wagner, Stefan M.; Shigematsu, Mika; Risi, George; Kozlovac, Joe; Halkjaer-Knudsen, Vibeke; Prat, Esmeralda

    2010-10-01

    Laboratories that work with biological agents need to manage their safety risks to persons working the laboratories and the human and animal community in the surrounding areas. Biosafety guidance defines a wide variety of biosafety risk mitigation measures, which include measures which fall under the following categories: engineering controls, procedural and administrative controls, and the use of personal protective equipment; the determination of which mitigation measures should be used to address the specific laboratory risks are dependent upon a risk assessment. Ideally, a risk assessment should be conducted in a manner which is standardized and systematic which allows it to be repeatable and comparable. A risk assessment should clearly define the risk being assessed and avoid over complication.

  19. Cancer Risk Assessment Primer.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Aidala, Jim

    1985-01-01

    Describes the scientific basis of cancer risk assessment, outlining the dominant controversies surrounding the use of different methods for identifying carcinogens (short-term tests, animal bioassays, and epidemiological studies). Points out that risk assessment is as much an art as it is a science. (DH)

  20. Cancer Risk Assessment Primer.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Aidala, Jim

    1985-01-01

    Describes the scientific basis of cancer risk assessment, outlining the dominant controversies surrounding the use of different methods for identifying carcinogens (short-term tests, animal bioassays, and epidemiological studies). Points out that risk assessment is as much an art as it is a science. (DH)

  1. Risk assessment [Chapter 9

    Treesearch

    Dennis S. Ojima; Louis R. Iverson; Brent L. Sohngen; James M. Vose; Christopher W. Woodall; Grant M. Domke; David L. Peterson; Jeremy S. Littell; Stephen N. Matthews; Anantha M. Prasad; Matthew P. Peters; Gary W. Yohe; Megan M. Friggens

    2014-01-01

    What is "risk" in the context of climate change? How can a "risk-based framework" help assess the effects of climate change and develop adaptation priorities? Risk can be described by the likelihood of an impact occurring and the magnitude of the consequences of the impact (Yohe 2010) (Fig. 9.1). High-magnitude impacts are always...

  2. Risk Assessment Tools

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1994-10-01

    2W0 ww) A number of computer-based risk assessment tools were enhanced or creaited to provide Increased access to risk assessment instruments and...produced an extensible authoring tool , SYNTAS, for test instruments that will simplify the data gathering phase of subsequent work. SYNTAS gives DNA...Ultimately it became a computer-assisted software engineerting (CASE) tool capable of producing a wide variety of assessment instruments . In addition, its

  3. Landslide risk assessment

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lessing, P.; Messina, C.P.; Fonner, R.F.

    1983-01-01

    Landslide risk can be assessed by evaluating geological conditions associated with past events. A sample of 2,4 16 slides from urban areas in West Virginia, each with 12 associated geological factors, has been analyzed using SAS computer methods. In addition, selected data have been normalized to account for areal distribution of rock formations, soil series, and slope percents. Final calculations yield landslide risk assessments of 1.50=high risk. The simplicity of the method provides for a rapid, initial assessment prior to financial investment. However, it does not replace on-site investigations, nor excuse poor construction. ?? 1983 Springer-Verlag New York Inc.

  4. GAR Global Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maskrey, Andrew; Safaie, Sahar

    2015-04-01

    Disaster risk management strategies, policies and actions need to be based on evidence of current disaster loss and risk patterns, past trends and future projections, and underlying risk factors. Faced with competing demands for resources, at any level it is only possible to priorities a range of disaster risk management strategies and investments with adequate understanding of realised losses, current and future risk levels and impacts on economic growth and social wellbeing as well as cost and impact of the strategy. The mapping and understanding of the global risk landscape has been greatly enhanced by the latest iteration of the GAR Global Risk Assessment and the objective of this submission is to present the GAR global risk assessment which contributed to Global Assessment Report (GAR) 2015. This initiative which has been led by UNISDR, was conducted by a consortium of technical institutions from around the world and has covered earthquake, cyclone, riverine flood, and tsunami probabilistic risk for all countries of the world. In addition, the risks associated with volcanic ash in the Asia-Pacific region, drought in various countries in sub-Saharan Africa and climate change in a number of countries have been calculated. The presentation will share thee results as well as the experience including the challenges faced in technical elements as well as the process and recommendations for the future of such endeavour.

  5. Public Risk Assessment Program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mendeck, Gavin

    2010-01-01

    The Public Entry Risk Assessment (PERA) program addresses risk to the public from shuttle or other spacecraft re-entry trajectories. Managing public risk to acceptable levels is a major component of safe spacecraft operation. PERA is given scenario inputs of vehicle trajectory, probability of failure along that trajectory, the resulting debris characteristics, and field size and distribution, and returns risk metrics that quantify the individual and collective risk posed by that scenario. Due to the large volume of data required to perform such a risk analysis, PERA was designed to streamline the analysis process by using innovative mathematical analysis of the risk assessment equations. Real-time analysis in the event of a shuttle contingency operation, such as damage to the Orbiter, is possible because PERA allows for a change to the probability of failure models, therefore providing a much quicker estimation of public risk. PERA also provides the ability to generate movie files showing how the entry risk changes as the entry develops. PERA was designed to streamline the computation of the enormous amounts of data needed for this type of risk assessment by using an average distribution of debris on the ground, rather than pinpointing the impact point of every piece of debris. This has reduced the amount of computational time significantly without reducing the accuracy of the results. PERA was written in MATLAB; a compiled version can run from a DOS or UNIX prompt.

  6. Extending the Marine Microcosm Laboratory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ryswyk, Hal Van; Hall, Eric W.; Petesch, Steven J.; Wiedeman, Alice E.

    2007-01-01

    The traditional range of marine microcosm laboratory experiments is presented as an ideal environment to teach the entire analysis process. The microcosm lab provides student-centered approach with opportunities for collaborative learning and to develop critical communication skills.

  7. Extending the Marine Microcosm Laboratory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ryswyk, Hal Van; Hall, Eric W.; Petesch, Steven J.; Wiedeman, Alice E.

    2007-01-01

    The traditional range of marine microcosm laboratory experiments is presented as an ideal environment to teach the entire analysis process. The microcosm lab provides student-centered approach with opportunities for collaborative learning and to develop critical communication skills.

  8. Field calibration of soil-core microcosms for evaluating fate and effects of genetically engineered microorganisms in terrestrial ecosystems

    SciTech Connect

    Bolton, H Jr; Fredrickson, J K; Bentjen, S A; Workman, D J; Li, S W; Thomas, J M

    1991-04-01

    Pacific Northwest Laboratory compared intact soil-core microcosms and the field for ecosystem structural and functional properties after the introduction of a model genetically engineered microorganism (GEM). This project used two distinct microbial types as model GEMs, Gram-negative Pseudomonas sp. RC1, which was an aggressive root colonizer, and Gram-positive Streptomyces lividans TK24. The model GEMs were added to surface soil in separate studies, with RC1 studied throughout the growth of winter wheat (Triticum aestivum), while TK24 was studied throughout a ten month period. Also, RC1 was used in studies conducted during two consecutive field seasons (1988 to 1990) to determine how year-to-year field variability influenced the calibration of microcosms with the field. The main conclusions of this research were that intact soil-core microcosms can be useful to simulate the field for studies of microbial fate and effects on ecosystem structural and functional properties. In general, microcosms in the growth chamber, which simulated average field variations, were similar to the field for most parameters or differences could be attributed to the great extremes in temperature that occurred in the field compared to the microcosms. Better controls of environmental variables including temperature and moisture will be necessary to more closely simulate the field for future use of microcosms for risk assessment. 126 refs., 13 figs., 12 tabs.

  9. Cardiac Risk Assessment

    MedlinePlus

    ... helpful? Formal name: Cardiac Risk Assessment Related tests: Lipid Profile , VLDL Cholesterol , hs-CRP , Lp(a) Overview | Common ... on Coronary artery disease: Tests and diagnosis .) The lipid profile is the most important blood test for cardiac ...

  10. Schedule Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smith, Greg

    2003-01-01

    Schedule Risk Assessment needs to determine the probability of finishing on or before a given point in time. Task in a schedule should reflect the "most likely" duration for each task. IN reality, each task is different and has a varying degree of probability of finishing within or after the duration specified. Schedule risk assessment attempt to quantify these probabilities by assigning values to each task. Bridges the gap between CPM scheduling and the project's need to know the likelihood of "when".

  11. Environmental risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    MacDonell, M.M.

    1997-10-01

    This paper presents a current overview of the basic elements of environmental risk assessment within the basic four-step process of hazard identification, exposure assessment, toxicity assessment, and risk characterization. These general steps have been applied to assess both human and ecological risks from environmental exposures. Approaches used to identify hazards and exposures are being refined, including the use of optimized field sampling and more representative, rather than conservative,upper-bound estimates. In addition, toxicity data are being reviewed more rigorously as US and European harmonization initiatives gain strength, and the classification of chemicals has become more qualitative to more flexibly accommodate new dose-response information as it is developed. Finally, more emphasis is being placed on noncancer end points, and human and ecological risks are being weighed against each other more explicitly at the risk characterization phase. Recent advances in risk-based decision making reflect the increased transparency of the overall process, with more explicit incorporation of multiple trade-offs. The end result is a more comprehensive life-cycle evaluation of the risks associated with environmental exposures at contaminated sites.

  12. Bio Risk Assessment Tool

    SciTech Connect

    Pohl, Phillip

    2004-07-22

    The Biosecurity Risk Assessment Tool (BRAT) is a new type of computer application for the screening-level assessment of risk to dairy operations. BRAT for Dairies is designed to be intuitive and easy to use. Users enter basic data-property address, feed management, employee population, and so on - into the interface. Using these data and rules found in an expert system. BRAT for Dairies consults appropriate sections of its database. The expert system determines the risk implications of the basic data, e.g. diseases are closely tied to pen location with respect to the outside world, When the analysis is complete, BRAT for Dairies evaluates and allocates the risk for each hazard, ranks the risks, and displays the results graphically.

  13. Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Assessment

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Assessment provide EPA staff with guidance for developing and using risk assessments. They also provide basic information to the public about the Agency's risk assessment methods.

  14. Ozone Risk Assessment Utilities

    SciTech Connect

    Whitfield, R. G.; Jusko, M. J.; Clemmons, M. A.

    1999-08-10

    ORAMUS is a user-friendly, menu-driven software system that calculates and displays user-selected risk estimates for health effects attributable to short-term exposure to tropospheric ozone. Inputs to the risk assessment are estimates of exposure to ozone and exposure-response relationships to produce overall risk estimates in the form of probability distributions. Three fundamental models are included: headcount risk, benchmark risk, and hospital admissions. Exposure-response relationships are based on results of controlled human exposure studies. Exposure estimates are based on the EPA''s probabilistic national ambient air quality standards (NAAQS) exposure model, pNEM/Osub3, which simulates air quality associated with attainment of alternative NAAQS. Using ORAMUS, risk results for 27 air quality scenarios, air quality in 9 urban areas, 33 health endpoints, and 4 chronic health endpoints can be calculated.

  15. Microbiological Quantitative Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dominguez, Silvia; Schaffner, Donald W.

    The meat and poultry industry faces ongoing challenges due to the natural association of pathogens of concern (e.g., Salmonella, Campylobacter jejuni, Escherichia coli O157:H7) with a variety of domesticated food animals. In addition, pathogens such as Listeria monocytogenes pose a significant cross-contamination risk during further meat and poultry processing, distribution, and storage. Furthermore, the meat and poultry industries are constantly changing with the addition of new products, use of new raw materials, and targeting of new consumer populations, each of which may give rise to potential new risks. National and international regulations are increasingly using a “risk-based” approach to food safety (where the regulatory focus is driven by the magnitude of the risk), so risk assessment is becoming a valuable tool to systematically organize and evaluate the potential public health risk posed by food processing operations.

  16. Assessment of Risk in Newborns.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Umansky, Warren; Seaton, Jane B.

    1979-01-01

    To assess risk status of newborns, data were collected on 776 newborns using a high risk register. Analysis of high risk characteristics revealed 261 primary risk incidents in the sample and 292 secondary risk factors. (Author/PHR)

  17. Assessment of Risk in Newborns.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Umansky, Warren; Seaton, Jane B.

    1979-01-01

    To assess risk status of newborns, data were collected on 776 newborns using a high risk register. Analysis of high risk characteristics revealed 261 primary risk incidents in the sample and 292 secondary risk factors. (Author/PHR)

  18. Northwest Climate Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mote, P.; Dalton, M. M.; Snover, A. K.

    2012-12-01

    As part of the US National Climate Assessment, the Northwest region undertook a process of climate risk assessment. This process included an expert evaluation of previously identified impacts, their likelihoods, and consequences, and engaged experts from both academia and natural resource management practice (federal, tribal, state, local, private, and non-profit) in a workshop setting. An important input was a list of 11 risks compiled by state agencies in Oregon and similar adaptation efforts in Washington. By considering jointly the likelihoods, consequences, and adaptive capacity, participants arrived at an approximately ranked list of risks which was further assessed and prioritized through a series of risk scoring exercises to arrive at the top three climate risks facing the Northwest: 1) changes in amount and timing of streamflow related to snowmelt, causing far-reaching ecological and socioeconomic consequences; 2) coastal erosion and inundation, and changing ocean acidity, combined with low adaptive capacity in the coastal zone to create large risks; and 3) the combined effects of wildfire, insect outbreaks, and diseases will cause large areas of forest mortality and long-term transformation of forest landscapes.

  19. GM risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Sparrow, P A C

    2010-03-01

    GM risk assessments (GMRAs) play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of each GMRA will be able to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to asses any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all "what if" scenarios, based on scientific evidence. This article sets out to provide researchers with helpful guidance notes on producing their own GMRA. While reference is made to UK and EU regulations, the underlying principles and points to consider are generic to most countries.

  20. Biosafety Risk Assessment Model

    SciTech Connect

    Daniel Bowen, Susan Caskey

    2011-05-27

    Software tool based on a structured methodology for conducting laboratory biosafety risk assessments by biosafety experts. Software is based upon an MCDA scheme and uses peer reviewed criteria and weights. The software was developed upon Microsoft's .net framework. The methodology defines likelihood and consequence of a laboratory exposure for thirteen unique scenarios and provides numerical relative risks for each of the relevant thirteen. The software produces 2-d graphs reflecting the relative risk and a sensitivity analysis which highlights the overall importance of each factor. The software works as a set of questions with absolute scales and uses a weighted additive model to calculate the likelihood and consequence.

  1. Biosafety Risk Assessment Model

    SciTech Connect

    Daniel Bowen, Susan Caskey

    2011-05-27

    Software tool based on a structured methodology for conducting laboratory biosafety risk assessments by biosafety experts. Software is based upon an MCDA scheme and uses peer reviewed criteria and weights. The software was developed upon Microsoft’s .net framework. The methodology defines likelihood and consequence of a laboratory exposure for thirteen unique scenarios and provides numerical relative risks for each of the relevant thirteen. The software produces 2-d graphs reflecting the relative risk and a sensitivity analysis which highlights the overall importance of each factor. The software works as a set of questions with absolute scales and uses a weighted additive model to calculate the likelihood and consequence.

  2. Microbial Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ott, C. M.; Mena, K. D.; Nickerson, C.A.; Pierson, D. L.

    2009-01-01

    Historically, microbiological spaceflight requirements have been established in a subjective manner based upon expert opinion of both environmental and clinical monitoring results and the incidence of disease. The limited amount of data, especially from long-duration missions, has created very conservative requirements based primarily on the concentration of microorganisms. Periodic reevaluations of new data from later missions have allowed some relaxation of these stringent requirements. However, the requirements remain very conservative and subjective in nature, and the risk of crew illness due to infectious microorganisms is not well defined. The use of modeling techniques for microbial risk has been applied in the food and potable water industries and has exceptional potential for spaceflight applications. From a productivity standpoint, this type of modeling can (1) decrease unnecessary costs and resource usage and (2) prevent inadequate or inappropriate data for health assessment. In addition, a quantitative model has several advantages for risk management and communication. By identifying the variable components of the model and the knowledge associated with each component, this type of modeling can: (1) Systematically identify and close knowledge gaps, (2) Systematically identify acceptable and unacceptable risks, (3) Improve communication with stakeholders as to the reasons for resource use, and (4) Facilitate external scientific approval of the NASA requirements. The modeling of microbial risk involves the evaluation of several key factors including hazard identification, crew exposure assessment, dose-response assessment, and risk characterization. Many of these factors are similar to conditions found on Earth; however, the spaceflight environment is very specialized as the inhabitants live in a small, semi-closed environment that is often dependent on regenerative life support systems. To further complicate modeling efforts, microbial dose

  3. Microbial Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ott, C. M.; Mena, K. D.; Nickerson, C.A.; Pierson, D. L.

    2009-01-01

    Historically, microbiological spaceflight requirements have been established in a subjective manner based upon expert opinion of both environmental and clinical monitoring results and the incidence of disease. The limited amount of data, especially from long-duration missions, has created very conservative requirements based primarily on the concentration of microorganisms. Periodic reevaluations of new data from later missions have allowed some relaxation of these stringent requirements. However, the requirements remain very conservative and subjective in nature, and the risk of crew illness due to infectious microorganisms is not well defined. The use of modeling techniques for microbial risk has been applied in the food and potable water industries and has exceptional potential for spaceflight applications. From a productivity standpoint, this type of modeling can (1) decrease unnecessary costs and resource usage and (2) prevent inadequate or inappropriate data for health assessment. In addition, a quantitative model has several advantages for risk management and communication. By identifying the variable components of the model and the knowledge associated with each component, this type of modeling can: (1) Systematically identify and close knowledge gaps, (2) Systematically identify acceptable and unacceptable risks, (3) Improve communication with stakeholders as to the reasons for resource use, and (4) Facilitate external scientific approval of the NASA requirements. The modeling of microbial risk involves the evaluation of several key factors including hazard identification, crew exposure assessment, dose-response assessment, and risk characterization. Many of these factors are similar to conditions found on Earth; however, the spaceflight environment is very specialized as the inhabitants live in a small, semi-closed environment that is often dependent on regenerative life support systems. To further complicate modeling efforts, microbial dose

  4. Falls risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Gallacher, Rose

    2017-02-22

    What was the nature of the CPD activity, practice-related feedback and/or event and/or experience in your practice? The CPD article outlined the causes and consequences of falls for older patients. It discussed the falls risk assessment tools, and falls prevention measures.

  5. Formaldehyde risk assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    We would like to comment on the paper by Crump et al. (2008), ‘Sensitivity analysis of biologically motivated model for formaldehyde-induced respiratory cancer in humans’. We are authors of the formaldehyde cancer risk assessment described in Conolly et al. (2003, 2004) that is t...

  6. Formaldehyde risk assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    We would like to comment on the paper by Crump et al. (2008), ‘Sensitivity analysis of biologically motivated model for formaldehyde-induced respiratory cancer in humans’. We are authors of the formaldehyde cancer risk assessment described in Conolly et al. (2003, 2004) that is t...

  7. Evaluation of terrestrial microcosms for detection, fate, and survival analysis of genetically engineered microorganisms and their recombinant genetic material

    SciTech Connect

    Fredrickson, J.K.; Seidler, R.J.

    1989-02-01

    The research included in this document represents the current scientific information available regarding the applicability of terrestrial microcosms and related methodologies for evaluating detection methods and the fate and survival of microorganisms in the environment. The three terrestrial microcosms described in this document were used to evaluate the survival and fate of recombinant bacteria in soils and in association with plant surfaces and insects and their transport through soil with percolating water and root systems, and to test new methods and procedures to improve detection and enumeration of bacteria in soil. Simple (potting soil composed of peat mix and perlite, lacking environmental control and monitoring) and complex microcosms (agricultural soil with partial control and monitoring of environmental conditions) were demonstrated to be useful tools for preliminary assessments of microbial viability in terrestrial ecosystems. These studies evaluated the survival patterns of Enterobacter cloacae (pBR322) in soil and on plant surfaces and the ingestion of this same microorganism by cutworms and survival in the foregut and frass. The Versacore microcosm design was used to monitor the fate and competitiveness of genetically engineered bacteria in soil. Both selective media and gene probes were used successfully to follow the fate of two recombinant Pseudomonas sp. introduced into Versacore microcosms. Intact soil-core microcosms were employed to evaluate the fate and transport of genetically altered Azospirillum sp. and Pseudomonas sp. in soil and the plant rhizosphere. The usefulness of these various microcosms as a tool for risk assessment is underscored by the ease in obtaining soil from a proposed field release site to evaluate subsequent GEM fate and survival.

  8. Biomechanical Rupture Risk Assessment

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    Abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) rupture is a local event in the aneurysm wall that naturally demands tools to assess the risk for local wall rupture. Consequently, global parameters like the maximum diameter and its expansion over time can only give very rough risk indications; therefore, they frequently fail to predict individual risk for AAA rupture. In contrast, the Biomechanical Rupture Risk Assessment (BRRA) method investigates the wall’s risk for local rupture by quantitatively integrating many known AAA rupture risk factors like female sex, large relative expansion, intraluminal thrombus-related wall weakening, and high blood pressure. The BRRA method is almost 20 years old and has progressed considerably in recent years, it can now potentially enrich the diameter indication for AAA repair. The present paper reviews the current state of the BRRA method by summarizing its key underlying concepts (i.e., geometry modeling, biomechanical simulation, and result interpretation). Specifically, the validity of the underlying model assumptions is critically disused in relation to the intended simulation objective (i.e., a clinical AAA rupture risk assessment). Next, reported clinical BRRA validation studies are summarized, and their clinical relevance is reviewed. The BRRA method is a generic, biomechanics-based approach that provides several interfaces to incorporate information from different research disciplines. As an example, the final section of this review suggests integrating growth aspects to (potentially) further improve BRRA sensitivity and specificity. Despite the fact that no prospective validation studies are reported, a significant and still growing body of validation evidence suggests integrating the BRRA method into the clinical decision-making process (i.e., enriching diameter-based decision-making in AAA patient treatment). PMID:27757402

  9. In-situ Subaqueous Capping of Mercury-Contaminated Sediments in a Fresh-Water Aquatic System, Part I-Bench-Scale Microcosm Study to Assess Methylmercury Production

    EPA Science Inventory

    Bench-scale microcosm experiments were designed to provide a better understanding of the potential for Hg methylation in sediments from an aquatic environment. Experiments were conducted to examine the function of sulfate concentration, lactate concentration, the presence/absenc...

  10. In-situ Subaqueous Capping of Mercury-Contaminated Sediments in a Fresh-Water Aquatic System, Part I-Bench-Scale Microcosm Study to Assess Methylmercury Production

    EPA Science Inventory

    Bench-scale microcosm experiments were designed to provide a better understanding of the potential for Hg methylation in sediments from an aquatic environment. Experiments were conducted to examine the function of sulfate concentration, lactate concentration, the presence/absenc...

  11. Risk Assessment System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1993-01-01

    FEAT, a software system for evaluating risks, was developed by Lockheed and later enhanced under NASA funding. FEAT uses directed graph - or digraph - models to provide information on cause and effect if a set of failure events occurs. James Miller, the program designer at Lockheed, formed DiGraphics, Inc. to market the software that has evolved from FEAT. The Diquest Analyzer, the company's flagship product, assists product designers in identifying the redundancies and weaknesses of a system. The software has applications in the chemical industry for risk assessment, design evaluation, and change management. Additional markets have been found in operations monitoring diagnostics and training of new personnel.

  12. Risk Assessment in Criminal Sentencing.

    PubMed

    Monahan, John; Skeem, Jennifer L

    2016-01-01

    The past several years have seen a surge of interest in using risk assessment in criminal sentencing, both to reduce recidivism by incapacitating or treating high-risk offenders and to reduce prison populations by diverting low-risk offenders from prison. We begin by sketching jurisprudential theories of sentencing, distinguishing those that rely on risk assessment from those that preclude it. We then characterize and illustrate the varying roles that risk assessment may play in the sentencing process. We clarify questions regarding the various meanings of "risk" in sentencing and the appropriate time to assess the risk of convicted offenders. We conclude by addressing four principal problems confronting risk assessment in sentencing: conflating risk and blame, barring individual inferences based on group data, failing adequately to distinguish risk assessment from risk reduction, and ignoring whether, and if so, how, the use of risk assessment in sentencing affects racial and economic disparities in imprisonment.

  13. Methylmercury risk assessment issues

    SciTech Connect

    Lipfert, F.W.; Saroff, L.

    1996-07-01

    This paper reviews the general background of health risks associated with mercury (Hg), primarily methylmercury (MeHg), with a view towards application to advanced technologies that could reduce any contributions from coal combustion. The need for accurate assessment of such risks is discussed, since Hg is now widely dispersed in the environment and cannot easily be eliminated. The primary pathway of MeHg intake is through eating contaminated fish. The issues of concern include identification of critical health outcomes (various neurological indices) and their confounding factors, accurate assessment of MeHg intake rates, and appropriate use of dose-response functions. Ultimately, such information will be used to evaluate alternative coal combustion systems.

  14. Stimulation of Mercury Methylation by Coal Ash in Anaerobic Sediment Microcosms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schwartz, G.; Hsu-Kim, H.; Redfern, L.; Gunsch, C.; Vengosh, A.

    2015-12-01

    impact of coal ash on both the contaminated and pristine sediment microbial populations. Overall our work highlights the need to incorporate environmental parameters into the risk assessments that guide coal ash waste management.

  15. Formaldehyde: assessing the risk

    SciTech Connect

    Hileman, B.

    1984-07-01

    The US Environmental Protection Agency has listed formaldehyde as a priority chemical for regulatory assessment under section 4 (f) of the Toxic Substances Control Act. They will give priority consideration to human formaldehyde exposure in two areas because of the large numbers of people involved: clothing workers who handle textiles treated with formaldehyde-based resins and residents of mobile homes that contain formaldehyde-based resins in construction materials such as foam insulation. Much of the scientific data for determining risks associated with formaldehyde is conflicting and ambiguous, due in part to its presence as a normal metabolite in human biochemistry. Although the chemical induces squamous cell carcinoma in rats, epidemiological studies in occupationally exposed groups show no strong evidence of a causal relationship between formaldehyde and cancer. Dose-response data from an experiment sponsored by the Chemical Industry Institute of Toxicology are used as the primary basis in constructing risk assessments for the human population. The most conservative model and the one chosen by EPA is the linearized multistage model. When the results of this model are examined, most of the groups studied are subject to an unacceptable risk.

  16. Direct and indirect effects of pollutants on algae and algivorous ciliates in an aquatic indoor microcosm.

    PubMed

    Liebig, Markus; Schmidt, Gunnar; Bontje, Daniel; Kooi, Bob W; Streck, Georg; Traunspurger, Walter; Knacker, Thomas

    2008-06-23

    An aquatic indoor microcosm was used to study effects of the pesticides parathion-methyl and prometryn on phototrophic flagellates (Cryptomonas sp.) and predatory ciliates (Urotricha furcata). Parathion-methyl caused effects to flagellates and ciliates at the range of low mg L(-1), regardless of whether the organisms were exposed separately or combined in the multi-species test system. Prometryn caused effects on the flagellates at low microg L(-1) concentrations, resulting in a NOEC of 6.9 microg L(-1) in the single-species test and a NOEC of 15.2 microg L(-1) in the multi-species microcosm. For ciliates the NOEC decreased by factor 145 in the multi-species test compared to the NOEC of 2.2 mg L(-1) in the single-species test when exposed to prometryn. The lower NOEC for ciliates exposed to prometryn in the microcosm was most likely caused by an indirect effect due to reduced availability of flagellates as food. The measurement of nutrient concentrations in the test media and organisms facilitated the modelling of effects. The presented aquatic indoor microcosm is considered as a tool which could be standardised and applied as an instrument to provide data for higher tier risk assessment.

  17. 2007 TOXICOLOGY AND RISK ASSESSMENT ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    EPA has announced The 2007 Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference Cincinnati Marriott North, West Chester (Cincinnati), OHApril 23- 26, 2007 - Click to register!The Annual Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference is a unique meeting where several Government Agencies come together to discuss toxicology and risk assessment issues that are not only of concern to the government, but also to a broader audience including academia and industry. The theme of this year's conference is Emerging Issues and Challenges in Risk Assessment and the preliminary agenda includes: Plenary Sessions and prominent speakers (tentative) include: Issues of Emerging Chemical ContaminantsUncertainty and Variability in Risk Assessment Use of Mechanistic data in IARC evaluationsParallel Sessions:Uncertainty and Variability in Dose-Response Assessment Recent Advances in Toxicity and Risk Assessment of RDX The Use of Epidemiologic Data for Risk Assessment Applications Cumulative Health Risk Assessment:

  18. 2007 TOXICOLOGY AND RISK ASSESSMENT ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    EPA has announced The 2007 Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference Cincinnati Marriott North, West Chester (Cincinnati), OHApril 23- 26, 2007 - Click to register!The Annual Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference is a unique meeting where several Government Agencies come together to discuss toxicology and risk assessment issues that are not only of concern to the government, but also to a broader audience including academia and industry. The theme of this year's conference is Emerging Issues and Challenges in Risk Assessment and the preliminary agenda includes: Plenary Sessions and prominent speakers (tentative) include: Issues of Emerging Chemical ContaminantsUncertainty and Variability in Risk Assessment Use of Mechanistic data in IARC evaluationsParallel Sessions:Uncertainty and Variability in Dose-Response Assessment Recent Advances in Toxicity and Risk Assessment of RDX The Use of Epidemiologic Data for Risk Assessment Applications Cumulative Health Risk Assessment:

  19. Risk assessment for safety

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hadlock, Charles R.; Glaser, Peter E.

    The application of probabilistic risk-assessment techniques to space missions is discussed, with a focus on the International Space Station. The types of hazards likely to be caused by random events; design, operational, and management errors; and intentional intervention are examined along with their secondary effects; and the top-level safety requirements defined by NASA are considered. It is suggested that such qualitative stipulations be supplemented with more quantitative measures such as used in the nuclear-power industry; the major features of such quantitative methods are reviewed.

  20. Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This is the first step in a long-term effort to develop risk assessment guidelines for ecological effects. Its primary purpose is to offer a simple, flexible structure for conducting and evaluating ecological risk assessment within EPA.

  1. Framework for Metals Risk Assessment

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The Framework for Metals Risk Assessment is a science-based document that addresses the special attributes and behaviors of metals and metal compounds to be considered when assessing their human health and ecological risks.

  2. Ecological risk assessment, prediction, and assessing risk predictions.

    PubMed

    Gibbs, Mark

    2011-11-01

    Ecological risk assessment embodied in an adaptive management framework is becoming the global standard approach for formally assessing and managing the ecological risks of technology and development. Ensuring the continual improvement of ecological risk assessment approaches is partly achieved through the dissemination of not only the types of risk assessment approaches used, but also their efficacy. While there is an increasing body of literature describing the results of general comparisons between alternate risk assessment methods and models, there is a paucity of literature that post hoc assesses the performance of specific predictions based on an assessment of risk and the effectiveness of the particular model used to predict the risk. This is especially the case where risk assessments have been used to grant consent or approval for the construction of major infrastructure projects. While postconstruction environmental monitoring is increasingly commonplace, it is not common for a postconstruction assessment of the accuracy and performance of the ecological risk assessment and underpinning model to be undertaken. Without this "assessment of the assessment," it is difficult for other practitioners to gain insight into the performance of the approach and models used and therefore, as argued here, this limits the rate of improvement of risk assessment approaches.

  3. Risk assessment for carnitine.

    PubMed

    Hathcock, John N; Shao, Andrew

    2006-10-01

    Carnitine is a conditionally essential amino acid-like compound involved in the transport of long-chain fatty acids into the mitochondria during the beta-oxidation process. Carnitine has become an increasingly popular ingredient in dietary supplements, especially weight loss and some sports nutrition products. A number of clinical trials have been conducted examining the effect of carnitine supplementation on weight loss and energy balance. Regarding safety, systematic evaluation of the research designs and data do not provide a basis for risk assessment and the usual safe upper level of intake (UL) derived from it unless the newer methods described as the observed safe level (OSL) or highest observed intake (HOI) are utilized. The OSL risk assessment method indicates that the evidence of safety is strong at intakes up to 2000mg/day l-carnitine equivalents for chronic supplementation, and this level is identified as the OSL. Although much higher levels have been tested without adverse effects and may be safe, the data for intakes above 2000mg/day are not sufficient for a confident conclusion of long-term safety.

  4. Risk assessment in travel medicine.

    PubMed

    Leggat, Peter A

    2006-01-01

    Risk assessment is an integral part of pre-travel and post- assessment. Risk assessment largely determines what health and safety advice and interventions are given within the relevant prevailing travel health guidelines. Risk assessment needs time and depends on information, including that given by the traveller. Risk assessment also needs to be documented. Risk assessment of the traveller preferably starts before they enter the consulting room, where travellers may complete a pre-travel health questionnaire. Armed with this information, risk assessment may be assisted by access to computerised travel health databases and the published literature. Experience of travel to the destination may also assist in risk assessment and the tour operator, overseas employer or agency, the traveller or even the travel health advisers themselves may provide this information.

  5. Risk assessment and risk management of mycotoxins.

    PubMed

    2012-01-01

    Risk assessment is the process of quantifying the magnitude and exposure, or probability, of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from certain agents or activities. Here, we summarize the four steps of risk assessment: hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Risk assessments using these principles have been conducted on the major mycotoxins (aflatoxins, fumonisins, ochratoxin A, deoxynivalenol, and zearalenone) by various regulatory agencies for the purpose of setting food safety guidelines. We critically evaluate the impact of these risk assessment parameters on the estimated global burden of the associated diseases as well as the impact of regulatory measures on food supply and international trade. Apart from the well-established risk posed by aflatoxins, many uncertainties still exist about risk assessments for the other major mycotoxins, often reflecting a lack of epidemiological data. Differences exist in the risk management strategies and in the ways different governments impose regulations and technologies to reduce levels of mycotoxins in the food-chain. Regulatory measures have very little impact on remote rural and subsistence farming communities in developing countries, in contrast to developed countries, where regulations are strictly enforced to reduce and/or remove mycotoxin contamination. However, in the absence of the relevant technologies or the necessary infrastructure, we highlight simple intervention practices to reduce mycotoxin contamination in the field and/or prevent mycotoxin formation during storage.

  6. Optimal Temporal Risk Assessment

    PubMed Central

    Balci, Fuat; Freestone, David; Simen, Patrick; deSouza, Laura; Cohen, Jonathan D.; Holmes, Philip

    2011-01-01

    Time is an essential feature of most decisions, because the reward earned from decisions frequently depends on the temporal statistics of the environment (e.g., on whether decisions must be made under deadlines). Accordingly, evolution appears to have favored a mechanism that predicts intervals in the seconds to minutes range with high accuracy on average, but significant variability from trial to trial. Importantly, the subjective sense of time that results is sufficiently imprecise that maximizing rewards in decision-making can require substantial behavioral adjustments (e.g., accumulating less evidence for a decision in order to beat a deadline). Reward maximization in many daily decisions therefore requires optimal temporal risk assessment. Here, we review the temporal decision-making literature, conduct secondary analyses of relevant published datasets, and analyze the results of a new experiment. The paper is organized in three parts. In the first part, we review literature and analyze existing data suggesting that animals take account of their inherent behavioral variability (their “endogenous timing uncertainty”) in temporal decision-making. In the second part, we review literature that quantitatively demonstrates nearly optimal temporal risk assessment with sub-second and supra-second intervals using perceptual tasks (with humans and mice) and motor timing tasks (with humans). We supplement this section with original research that tested human and rat performance on a task that requires finding the optimal balance between two time-dependent quantities for reward maximization. This optimal balance in turn depends on the level of timing uncertainty. Corroborating the reviewed literature, humans and rats exhibited nearly optimal temporal risk assessment in this task. In the third section, we discuss the role of timing uncertainty in reward maximization in two-choice perceptual decision-making tasks and review literature that implicates timing uncertainty

  7. Advances in stalking risk assessment.

    PubMed

    McEwan, Troy E; Pathé, Michele; Ogloff, James R P

    2011-01-01

    Over the past 15 years, forensic mental health has become more concerned with the concepts of violence prevention, management, and treatment. The development of specialist tools to aid in the assessment of a range of risks reflects this concern. This article explores contemporary thinking on violence risk assessment and how this knowledge can be applied to the relatively newer field of stalking risk assessment. The role of risk state and risk status are discussed, in addition to the way that standard structured professional judgment procedures need to be adapted to reflect the variety of risks present in stalking situations. The authors go on to describe the development and format of the Stalking Risk Profile, a set of structured professional judgment guidelines for assessing risk in stalkers. Suggestions are made for future research to enhance knowledge and improve practice in the field of stalking risk assessment.

  8. Defense Programs Transportation Risk Assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Clauss, D.B.

    1994-08-01

    This paper provides an overview of the methodology used in a probabilistic transportation risk assessment conducted to assess the probabilities and consequences of inadvertent dispersal of radioactive materials arising from severe transportation accidents. The model was developed for the Defense Program Transportation Risk Assessment (DPTRA) study. The analysis incorporates several enhancements relative to previous risk assessments of hazardous materials transportation including newly-developed statistics on the frequencies and severities of tractor semitrailer accidents and detailed route characterization using the 1990 Census data.

  9. Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB)

    Cancer.gov

    The Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB) focuses on the development, evaluation, and dissemination of high-quality risk factor metrics, methods, tools, technologies, and resources for use across the cancer research continuum, and the assessment of cancer-related risk factors in the population.

  10. Risk assessment for halogenated solvents

    SciTech Connect

    Travis, C.C.

    1988-01-01

    A recent development in the cancer risk area is the advent of biologically based pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic models. These models allow for the incorporation of biological and mechanistic data into the risk assessment process. These advances will not only improve the risk assessment process for halogenated solvents but will stimulate and guide basic research in the biological area.

  11. Fact Sheet: Assessing Risks from Flame Retardants

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    EPA's assessing and managing risk programs address pollution prevention, risk assessment, hazard and exposure assessment and/or characterization, and risk management for chemicals substances in commercial use.

  12. Community conditioning confirmed in a multiple stressor microcosm

    SciTech Connect

    Kelly, S.A.; Markiewicz, A.J.; Landis, W.G.; Matthews, R.A.; Matthews, G.B.

    1995-12-31

    The authors tested the community conditioning hypothesis by evaluating the effects of multiple stress events on aquatic community dynamics in a Standard Aquatic Microcosm (SAM). Community conditioning suggests that changes in community dynamics are the result of the history of the community, specifically, the conditioning of the treated community by stress events. Consequently, systems exposed to different stressors would be expected to exhibit different dynamics. In an extended 91-day SAM, two of four treatments were dosed with the turbine fuel, JP-8, one week into the experiment. Two treatments were later exposed to the heat stress, one that had received jet fuel and one that had not. Biological, physical and chemical data were subjected to conventional univariate statistical analyses including ANOVA. Data were also analyzed with multivariate techniques including nonmetric clustering and association analysis, an artificial intelligence approach that enabled the detection of community dynamics not detected with conventional methods. The results clearly support the community conditioning hypothesis as the four treatments were distinguishable at the end of the experiment. This design is particularly important since little information is available regarding the impacts of sequential stresses on communities. The results also demonstrate the importance of indirect effects on community dynamics. Furthermore, the experiment demonstrates that microcosms, like natural communities, are complex systems and clearly historical. The community conditioning hypothesis supports the growing argument against the attainment of recovery in ecosystems following a disturbance. Such research is applicable to the refinement of ecological risk assessment.

  13. Information needs for risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    DeRosa, C.T.; Choudhury, H.; Schoeny, R.S.

    1990-12-31

    Risk assessment can be thought of as a conceptual approach to bridge the gap between the available data and the ultimate goal of characterizing the risk or hazard associated with a particular environmental problem. To lend consistency to and to promote quality in the process, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) published Guidelines for Risk Assessment of Carcinogenicity, Developmental Toxicity, Germ Cell Mutagenicity and Exposure Assessment, and Risk Assessment of Chemical Mixtures. The guidelines provide a framework for organizing the information, evaluating data, and for carrying out the risk assessment in a scientifically plausible manner. In the absence of sufficient scientific information or when abundant data are available, the guidelines provide alternative methodologies that can be employed in the risk assessment. 4 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.

  14. Probabilistic Risk Assessment: A Bibliography

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2000-01-01

    Probabilistic risk analysis is an integration of failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA), fault tree analysis and other techniques to assess the potential for failure and to find ways to reduce risk. This bibliography references 160 documents in the NASA STI Database that contain the major concepts, probabilistic risk assessment, risk and probability theory, in the basic index or major subject terms, An abstract is included with most citations, followed by the applicable subject terms.

  15. Exploration Health Risks: Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rhatigan, Jennifer; Charles, John; Hayes, Judith; Wren, Kiley

    2006-01-01

    Maintenance of human health on long-duration exploration missions is a primary challenge to mission designers. Indeed, human health risks are currently the largest risk contributors to the risks of evacuation or loss of the crew on long-duration International Space Station missions. We describe a quantitative assessment of the relative probabilities of occurrence of the individual risks to human safety and efficiency during space flight to augment qualitative assessments used in this field to date. Quantitative probabilistic risk assessments will allow program managers to focus resources on those human health risks most likely to occur with undesirable consequences. Truly quantitative assessments are common, even expected, in the engineering and actuarial spheres, but that capability is just emerging in some arenas of life sciences research, such as identifying and minimize the hazards to astronauts during future space exploration missions. Our expectation is that these results can be used to inform NASA mission design trade studies in the near future with the objective of preventing the higher among the human health risks. We identify and discuss statistical techniques to provide this risk quantification based on relevant sets of astronaut biomedical data from short and long duration space flights as well as relevant analog populations. We outline critical assumptions made in the calculations and discuss the rationale for these. Our efforts to date have focussed on quantifying the probabilities of medical risks that are qualitatively perceived as relatively high risks of radiation sickness, cardiac dysrhythmias, medically significant renal stone formation due to increased calcium mobilization, decompression sickness as a result of EVA (extravehicular activity), and bone fracture due to loss of bone mineral density. We present these quantitative probabilities in order-of-magnitude comparison format so that relative risk can be gauged. We address the effects of

  16. Exploration Health Risks: Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rhatigan, Jennifer; Charles, John; Hayes, Judith; Wren, Kiley

    2006-01-01

    Maintenance of human health on long-duration exploration missions is a primary challenge to mission designers. Indeed, human health risks are currently the largest risk contributors to the risks of evacuation or loss of the crew on long-duration International Space Station missions. We describe a quantitative assessment of the relative probabilities of occurrence of the individual risks to human safety and efficiency during space flight to augment qualitative assessments used in this field to date. Quantitative probabilistic risk assessments will allow program managers to focus resources on those human health risks most likely to occur with undesirable consequences. Truly quantitative assessments are common, even expected, in the engineering and actuarial spheres, but that capability is just emerging in some arenas of life sciences research, such as identifying and minimize the hazards to astronauts during future space exploration missions. Our expectation is that these results can be used to inform NASA mission design trade studies in the near future with the objective of preventing the higher among the human health risks. We identify and discuss statistical techniques to provide this risk quantification based on relevant sets of astronaut biomedical data from short and long duration space flights as well as relevant analog populations. We outline critical assumptions made in the calculations and discuss the rationale for these. Our efforts to date have focussed on quantifying the probabilities of medical risks that are qualitatively perceived as relatively high risks of radiation sickness, cardiac dysrhythmias, medically significant renal stone formation due to increased calcium mobilization, decompression sickness as a result of EVA (extravehicular activity), and bone fracture due to loss of bone mineral density. We present these quantitative probabilities in order-of-magnitude comparison format so that relative risk can be gauged. We address the effects of

  17. Risk Assessment: A Quantitative Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baert, K.; Francois, K.; de Meulenaer, B.; Devlieghere, F.

    A risk can be defined as a function of the probability of an adverse health effect and the severity of that effect, consequential to a hazard in food (Codex Alimentarius, 1999) . During a risk assessment, an estimate of the risk is obtained. The goal is to estimate the likelihood and the extent of adverse effects occurring to humans due to possible exposure(s) to hazards. Risk assessment is a scientifically based process consisting of the following steps: (1) hazard identification, (2) hazard characterization, (3) exposure assessment and (4) and risk characterization (Codex Alimentarius, 1999).

  18. [Forensic assessment of violence risk].

    PubMed

    Pujol Robinat, Amadeo; Mohíno Justes, Susana; Gómez-Durán, Esperanza L

    2014-03-01

    Over the last 20 years there have been steps forward in the field of scientific research on prediction and handling different violent behaviors. In this work we go over the classic concept of "criminal dangerousness" and the more current of "violence risk assessment". We analyze the evolution of such assessment from the practice of non-structured clinical expert opinion to current actuarial methods and structured clinical expert opinion. Next we approach the problem of assessing physical violence risk analyzing the HCR-20 (Assessing Risk for Violence) and we also review the classic and complex subject of the relation between mental disease and violence. One of the most problematic types of violence, difficult to assess and predict, is sexual violence. We study the different actuarial and sexual violence risk prediction instruments and in the end we advise an integral approach to the problem. We also go through partner violence risk assessment, describing the most frequently used scales, especially SARA (Spouse Assault Risk Assessment) and EPV-R. Finally we give practical advice on risk assessment, emphasizing the importance of having maximum information about the case, carrying out a clinical examination, psychopathologic exploration and the application of one of the described risk assessment scales. We'll have to express an opinion about the dangerousness/risk of future violence from the subject and some recommendations on the conduct to follow and the most advisable treatment. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.

  19. Models for Pesticide Risk Assessment

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    EPA considers the toxicity of the pesticide as well as the amount of pesticide to which a person or the environments may be exposed in risk assessment. Scientists use mathematical models to predict pesticide concentrations in exposure assessment.

  20. Using risk assessment in periodontics.

    PubMed

    Woodman, Alan J

    2014-08-01

    Risk assessment has become a regular feature in both dental practice and society as a whole, and principles used to assess risk in society are similar to those used in a clinical setting. Although the concept of risk assessment as a prognostic indicator for periodontal disease incidence and activity is well established in the management of periodontitis, the use of risk assessment to manage the practical treatment of periodontitis and its sequelae appears to have less foundation. A simple system of initial risk assessment - building on the use of the Basic Periodontal Examination (BPE), clinical, medical and social factors - is described, linked to protocols for delivering care suited to general dental practice and stressing the role of long-term supportive care. The risks of not treating the patient are considered, together with the possible causes of failure, and the problems of successful treatment are illustrated by the practical management of post-treatment recession.

  1. AVLIS Criticality risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Brereton, S.J., LLNL

    1998-04-29

    U-235 and uranium depleted in U-235) are cooled and accumulated in solid metallic form in canisters. The collected product and tails material is weighed and transferred into certified, critically safe, shipping containers (DOT specification 6M with 2R containment vessel). These will be temporarily stored, and then shipped offsite either for use by a fuel fabricator, or for disposal. Tails material will be packaged for disposal. A criticality risk assessment was performed for AVLIS IPD runs. In this analysis, the likelihood of occurrence of a criticality was examined. For the AVLIS process, there are a number of areas that have been specifically examined to assess whether or not the frequency of occurrence of a criticality is credible (frequency of occurrence > 10-6/yr). In this paper, we discuss only two of the areas: the separator and canister operations.

  2. Relative inactivation of faecal indicator bacteria and sewage markers in freshwater and seawater microcosms.

    PubMed

    Ahmed, W; Gyawali, P; Sidhu, J P S; Toze, S

    2014-09-01

    In this study, the relative inactivation of faecal indicator bacteria (FIB) namely Escherichia coli, enterococci and sewage markers [Bacteroides HF183 and human adenoviruses (HAVs)] was assessed in sewage-spiked freshwater and seawater microcosms under ambient subtropical climatic conditions. The numbers of declining FIB were measured with culture-based methods, whereas the numbers of sewage markers were measured with qPCR assays. The T90 inactivation times of E. coli, enterococci and the HF183 markers in both freshwater and seawater microcosms were <3·5 days, suggesting the suitability of the HF183 marker to identify recent sewage pollution events. The T90 value of HAVs (9·4-13 days), however, was significantly higher than FIB and the HF183 marker in both freshwater (P < 0·001) and seawater (P < 0·05) microcosms. Therefore, we recommend that HAVs should be used as an additional marker to adequately assess the potential health risks associated with longer-term sewage-polluted environmental waters. In this study, we have shown that the persistence of the Bacteroides HF183 marker in freshwater and seawater microcosms was similar to faecal indicator bacteria (Escherichia coli and enterococci), whereas human adenoviruses (HAVs) persisted relatively longer. These findings suggest the suitability of both the markers to identify sewage pollution in environmental waters. However, HF183 marker appeared to be more useful than HAVs in identifying recent sewage pollution. As, HAVs may remain infective for lengthy periods, it should be used in conjunction with the HF183 marker to obtain information on the potential human health risks associated with sewage-polluted freshwater and seawater. © 2014 The Society for Applied Microbiology.

  3. Cancer Risk Prediction and Assessment

    Cancer.gov

    Cancer prediction models provide an important approach to assessing risk and prognosis by identifying individuals at high risk, facilitating the design and planning of clinical cancer trials, fostering the development of benefit-risk indices, and enabling estimates of the population burden and cost of cancer.

  4. RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENT: MAGNETIC TAPE ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This document describes the residual risk assessment for the Magnetic Tape Manufacturing source category. For stationary sources, section 112 (f) of the Clean Air Act requires EPA to assess risks to human health and the environment following implementation of technology-based control standards. If these technology-based control standards do not provide an ample margin of safety, then EPA is required to promulgate addtional standards. This document describes the methodology and results of the residual risk assessment performed for the Magnetic Tape Manufacturing source category. The results of this analyiss will assist EPA in determining whether a residual risk rule for this source category is appropriate.

  5. RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENT: INDUSTRIAL PROCESS ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This document describes the residual risk assessment for the Industrial Process Cooling Towers source category. For stationary sources, section 112 (f) of the Clean Air Act requires EPA to assess risks to human health and the environment following implementation of technology-based control standards. If these technology-based control standards do not provide an ample margin of safety, then EPA is required to promulgate addtional standards. This document describes the methodology and results of the residual risk assessment performed for the Industrial Process Cooling Towers source category. The results of this analyiss will assist EPA in determining whether a residual risk rule for this source category is appropriate.

  6. RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENT: ETHYLENE OXIDE ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This document describes the residual risk assessment for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. For stationary sources, section 112 (f) of the Clean Air Act requires EPA to assess risks to human health and the environment following implementation of technology-based control standards. If these technology-based control standards do not provide an ample margin of safety, then EPA is required to promulgate addtional standards. This document describes the methodology and results of the residual risk assessment performed for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. The results of this analyiss will assist EPA in determining whether a residual risk rule for this source category is appropriate.

  7. RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENT: ETHYLENE OXIDE ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This document describes the residual risk assessment for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. For stationary sources, section 112 (f) of the Clean Air Act requires EPA to assess risks to human health and the environment following implementation of technology-based control standards. If these technology-based control standards do not provide an ample margin of safety, then EPA is required to promulgate addtional standards. This document describes the methodology and results of the residual risk assessment performed for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. The results of this analyiss will assist EPA in determining whether a residual risk rule for this source category is appropriate.

  8. Risk-Assessment Computer Program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dias, William C.; Mittman, David S.

    1993-01-01

    RISK D/C is prototype computer program assisting in attempts to do program risk modeling for Space Exploration Initiative (SEI) architectures proposed in Synthesis Group Report. Risk assessment performed with respect to risk events, probabilities, and severities of potential results. Enables ranking, with respect to effectiveness, of risk-mitigation strategies proposed for exploration program architecture. Allows for fact that risk assessment in early phases of planning subjective. Although specific to SEI in present form, also used as software framework for development of risk-assessment programs for other specific uses. Developed for Macintosh(TM) series computer. Requires HyperCard(TM) 2.0 or later, as well as 2 Mb of random-access memory and System 6.0.8 or later.

  9. Response of zooplankton and phytoplankton communities to creosote-impregnated Douglas fir pilings in freshwater microcosms.

    PubMed

    Sibley, P K; Harris, M L; Bestari, K T; Steele, T A; Robinson, R D; Gensemer, R W; Day, K E; Solomon, K R

    2004-07-01

    Creosote has been used extensively as an industrial wood preservative for the protection of marine pilings, railway ties, and utility poles and is a common source of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) into aquatic environments. At present, there is little information by which to judge the potential for creosote leached from impregnated pilings to cause toxicity to biota in aquatic environments. The objective of the current study was to assess the effects of creosote on zooplankton and phytoplankton populations in freshwater microcosms in relation to changes in the concentration and composition of PAHs leached from creosote-impregnated Douglas fir pilings during an 83-day exposure period. The study consisted of single microcosms containing one half, one, two, three, four, and six treated pilings. Two microcosms that received untreated pilings were used as controls. The total surface area of pilings in each microcosm was normalized by adding the appropriate number of untreated pilings. Samples were collected periodically between -14 and 83 days pre- and postexposure to determine aqueous concentrations of 15 priority PAHs and to assess the response of zooplankton and phytoplankton communities. Plankton community response to creosote was analyzed using principle responses curves. Peak aqueous concentrations of sigmaPAH occurred at day 7, ranging from 7.3 to 97.3 microg/L. Zooplankton abundance decreased in all microcosms after introduction of the impregnated pilings, with the magnitude of response varying as a function of aqueous creosote concentration. Using inverse regression, a no-observed-effect concentration for the zooplankton community of 11.1 microg/L was estimated. In contrast, algal abundance and diversity increased in all treatments between 7 and 21 days and attained levels up to twice that in control microcosms. This trend most likely reflected decreased grazing pressure because of the decrease in zooplankton populations, but it may also have reflected

  10. A Natal Microcosm

    NASA Image and Video Library

    2004-05-11

    In the quest to better understand the birth of stars and the formation of new worlds, astronomers have used NASA's Spitzer Space Telescope to examine the massive stars contained in a cloudy region called Sharpless 140. This cloud is a fascinating microcosm of a star-forming region since it exhibits, within a relatively small area, all of the classic manifestations of stellar birth. Sharpless 140 lies almost 3000 light-years from Earth in the constellation Cepheus. At its heart is a cluster of three deeply embedded young stars, which are each several thousand times brighter than the Sun. Though they are strikingly visible in this image from Spitzer's infrared array camera, they are completely obscured in visible light, buried within the core of the surrounding dust cloud. The extreme youth of at least one of these stars is indicated by the presence of a stream of gas moving at high velocities. Such outflows are signatures of the processes surrounding a star that is still gobbling up material as part of its formation. The bright red bowl, or arc, seen in this image traces the outer surface of the dense dust cloud encasing the young stars. This arc is made up primarily of organic compounds called polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, which glow on the surface of the cloud. Ultraviolet light from a nearby bright star outside of the image is "eating away" at these molecules. Eventually, this light will destroy the dust envelope and the masked young stars will emerge. This false-color image was taken on Oct. 11, 2003 and is composed of photographs obtained at four wavelengths: 3.6 microns (blue), 4.5 microns (green), 5.8 microns (orange) and 8 microns (red). http://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA05878

  11. A Natal Microcosm

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2004-01-01

    In the quest to better understand the birth of stars and the formation of new worlds, astronomers have used NASA's Spitzer Space Telescope to examine the massive stars contained in a cloudy region called Sharpless 140. This cloud is a fascinating microcosm of a star-forming region since it exhibits, within a relatively small area, all of the classic manifestations of stellar birth.

    Sharpless 140 lies almost 3000 light-years from Earth in the constellation Cepheus. At its heart is a cluster of three deeply embedded young stars, which are each several thousand times brighter than the Sun. Though they are strikingly visible in this image from Spitzer's infrared array camera, they are completely obscured in visible light, buried within the core of the surrounding dust cloud.

    The extreme youth of at least one of these stars is indicated by the presence of a stream of gas moving at high velocities. Such outflows are signatures of the processes surrounding a star that is still gobbling up material as part of its formation.

    The bright red bowl, or arc, seen in this image traces the outer surface of the dense dust cloud encasing the young stars. This arc is made up primarily of organic compounds called polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, which glow on the surface of the cloud. Ultraviolet light from a nearby bright star outside of the image is 'eating away' at these molecules. Eventually, this light will destroy the dust envelope and the masked young stars will emerge.

    This false-color image was taken on Oct. 11, 2003 and is composed of photographs obtained at four wavelengths: 3.6 microns (blue), 4.5 microns (green), 5.8 microns (orange) and 8 microns (red).

  12. Response of the zooplankton community and environmental fate of perfluorooctane sulfonic acid in aquatic microcosms.

    PubMed

    Boudreau, Timothy M; Wilson, Christian J; Cheong, Woo Jay; Sibley, Paul K; Mabury, Scott A; Muir, Derek C G; Solomon, Keith R

    2003-11-01

    Little is known regarding perfluorooctane sulfonic acid (PFOS) toxicity to freshwater organisms. This field evaluation aims to assess the toxicological risk associated with exposure to PFOS across levels of biological organization. The analysis of variance study was conducted in replicate (n = 3) 12,000 L outdoor microcosms. Multivariate techniques were used to assess the response of zooplankton community structure and dynamics, as well as a floating macrophyte, Lemna gibba. The zooplankton community was significantly affected (p < 0.05) by the treatment regime given by the Monte Carlo permutations for all sampling times. A community-level no-observable-effect concentration ([NOEC]community) of 3.0 mg/L was determined for the 35-day study, however, longer term studies are recommended. The most sensitive taxonomic groups, Cladocera and Copepoda, were virtually eliminated in 30 mg/L treatments after 7 d. The 42-d 50% inhibition concentration (IC50) for L. gibba frond number was 19.1 mg/L and the NOEC was 0.2 mg/L. Furthermore, we investigated the persistence of PFOS over 285 d in microcosms under natural conditions. Perfluorooctane sulfonic acid concentration showed no drastic reduction in any treatment microcosm over the entire study period, confirming that this compound undergoes little degradation in aquatic systems. Presently, there appears to be little hazard to these freshwater organisms at reported environmental concentrations.

  13. Structural and functional responses of plankton to a mixture of four tetracyclines in aquatic microcosms.

    PubMed

    Wilson, Christian J; Brain, Richard A; Sanderson, Hans; Johnson, David J; Bestari, Ketut T; Sibley, Paul K; Solomon, Keith R

    2004-12-01

    Pharmaceuticals are routinely detected at low concentrations in surface waters, but effects on non-target organisms are not well understood. Microcosms were used to assess ecological responses in freshwater ecosystems to a mixture offourtetracyclines commonly used in veterinary and human medicine. Triplicate microcosms were treated with tetracycline, oxytetracycline, doxycycline, and chlortetracycline, resulting in measured time-weighted average total mixture concentrations of 0, 0.080, 0.218, 0.662, and 2.29 microM, respectively. Responses were assessed in terms of structure and function based on measurements of zooplankton and phytoplankton communities, ecosystem productivity, and water quality. Effects were observed for some endpoints > or = the 0.218 microM treatment. The largest responses were concentration-dependent reductions in total phytoplankton abundance and species richness. Phytoplankton abundance recovered to control levels in all microcosms after treatment was terminated, and resilience (time to return to normal operating range during stress) was observed with respectto phytoplankton species richness. Zooplankton were generally unaffected by the tetracyclines. Responses also included decreased water clarity, lower oxygen concentration, and water temperature. Functional endpoints showed varying sensitivity. On the basis of dissolved oxygen concentrations, community respiration (R) increased while primary productivity (P) was unchanged with increased treatment concentration. The effects observed occurred at considerably greater concentrations than are currently measured in the environment, indicating minimal risk to aquatic organisms.

  14. Risk Assessment for NOTES

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1991-09-01

    Navy System Safety regulations, NAVOSH regulations (Navy Ocupational , Safety and Health ), and the Environmental Safety regulations. 13 NAVSWC TR 91...significant fields lie over navigable waterways). Health No evidence of long-term health effects of EMP exposure to operating employees has been found, even...34 10 NAVSWC TR 91-328 Identify the risks and controls that would achieve the lowest reasonably achievable risk (consider safety, health , performance

  15. Atrazine remediation in wetland microcosms.

    PubMed

    Runes, H B; Bottomley, P J; Lerch, R N; Jenkins, J J

    2001-05-01

    Laboratory wetland microcosms were used to study treatment of atrazine in irrigation runoff by a field-scale-constructed wetland under controlled conditions. Three experiments, in which 1 ppm atrazine was added to the water column of three wetland, one soil control, and one water control microcosm, were conducted. Atrazine dissipation from the water column and degradate formation (deethylatrazine [DEA]; deisopropylatrazine [DIA]; and hydroxyatrazine [HA]) were monitored. Atrazine dissipation from the water column of wetland microcosms was biphasic. Less than 12% of the atrazine applied to wetland microcosms remained in the water column on day 56. Atrazine degradates were observed in water and sediment, with HA the predominant degradate. Analysis of day 56 sediment samples indicated that a significant portion of the initial application was detected as the parent compound and HA. Most probable number (MPN) assays demonstrated that atrazine degrader populations were small in wetland sediment. Wetland microcosms were able to reduce atrazine concentration in the water column via sorption and degradation. Based on results from this study, it is hypothesized that plant uptake contributed to atrazine dissipation from the water column.

  16. Integrating Risk Context into Risk Assessments: The Risk Context Scale

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kroner, Daryl G.; Gray, Andrew L.; Goodrich, Ben

    2013-01-01

    The context in which offenders are released is an important component of conducting risk assessments. A sample of 257 supervised male parolees were followed in the community ("M" = 870 days) after an initial risk assessment. Drawing on community-based information, the purpose of this study was to evaluate the recently developed Risk…

  17. Integrating Risk Context into Risk Assessments: The Risk Context Scale

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kroner, Daryl G.; Gray, Andrew L.; Goodrich, Ben

    2013-01-01

    The context in which offenders are released is an important component of conducting risk assessments. A sample of 257 supervised male parolees were followed in the community ("M" = 870 days) after an initial risk assessment. Drawing on community-based information, the purpose of this study was to evaluate the recently developed Risk…

  18. RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENT: SYNTHETIC ORGANIC ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This document describes the residual risk assessment for the Synthetic Organic Chemical Manufacturing Industry source category. For stationary sources, section 112 (f) of the Clean Air Act requires EPA to assess risks to human health and the environment following implementation of technology-based control standards. If these technology-based control standards do not provide an ample margin of safety, then EPA is required to promulgate addtional standards. This document describes the methodology and results of the residual risk assessment performed for the Synthetic Organic Chemical Manufacturing Industry source category. The results of this analyiss will assist EPA in determining whether a residual risk rule for this source category is appropriate. Update 9/19/2006: Proposed Rule June 14, 2006 - Risk Assessment complete September 2005 and only available in the Docket.

  19. Risk assessment of dietary supplements.

    PubMed

    Boobis, Alan R

    2007-01-01

    Risk assessment of dietary supplements shares many of the requirements of that for other chemicals, although there are some important differences. Amongst these is the essential nature of some nutrients so that it may be necessary to balance the need to minimize toxicological risk with the need to avoid deficiency. There may also be limitations on experimental design, in that high doses may not be achievable for nutritional reasons and available human data on toxicological hazard is likely to be very limited. Prior to embarking on a risk assessment the problem needs to be formulated. This involves risk assessors, risk managers and relevant stakeholders. A key decision is whether a risk assessment is necessary and, if so, what is required of the assessment. This will shape the nature and output of the assessment. Risk assessment itself is a scientific process comprising four steps, hazard identification, hazard characterization, exposure assessment and risk characterization. Hazard identification involves determining the range of toxicological effects that might be caused by the substance, whilst hazard characterization establishes dose-response relationships, toxicological and species relevance of the findings and establishes health based guidance values. Exposure assessment involves predicting or measuring the level, pattern and duration of intake of the substance by exposed individuals. This may require dietary consumption data. Finally, risk characterization is the process whereby all of the prior information is integrated to reach conclusions in a form appropriate to the question posed. The nature of the output can take several different forms, and may be qualitative or quantitative. There are some cross-cutting issues in risk assessment, primarily on uncertainty and variability. The sources of uncertainty at each step of the risk assessment should be clearly identified and quantified to the extent possible. Variability requires that the risk assessment should

  20. Balancing risk: Ethical issues in risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Longstreth, J.D.

    1992-06-01

    The last five decades have seen an explosive growth of information, accompanied by the development of a strong environmental movement. These two factors have been critical contributors to the development of the scientific discipline that has come to be called risk analysis or risk assessment. In this context, risk assessment can be described as an analytic approach used to organize large amounts of information from diverse disciplines so as to evaluate the possible impacts of pollution on human health and the environment. Early efforts in this field focused on the protection of human health. More recently, however, it has been realized that humans and their environment are intimately linked and that environmental impacts must also be evaluated. At some point, it seems likely that the joint goals of protecting human health and the environment may come into conflict. This essay reviews current developments in the assessment of risks both to humans and the environment in order to expose similarities and differences with the ultimate aim of opening a dialogue between scientists in the different disciplines so that evaluation strategies can be designed which will enable decision makers to make trade-offs between human health and environmental risk is an informed and egalitarian way.

  1. Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Edwards, Michelle

    2010-01-01

    Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

  2. Hydrocarbon biodegradation by Arctic sea-ice and sub-ice microbial communities during microcosm experiments, Northwest Passage (Nunavut, Canada).

    PubMed

    Garneau, Marie-Ève; Michel, Christine; Meisterhans, Guillaume; Fortin, Nathalie; King, Thomas L; Greer, Charles W; Lee, Kenneth

    2016-10-01

    The increasing accessibility to navigation and offshore oil exploration brings risks of hydrocarbon releases in Arctic waters. Bioremediation of hydrocarbons is a promising mitigation strategy but challenges remain, particularly due to low microbial metabolic rates in cold, ice-covered seas. Hydrocarbon degradation potential of ice-associated microbes collected from the Northwest Passage was investigated. Microcosm incubations were run for 15 days at -1.7°C with and without oil to determine the effects of hydrocarbon exposure on microbial abundance, diversity and activity, and to estimate component-specific hydrocarbon loss. Diversity was assessed with automated ribosomal intergenic spacer analysis and Ion Torrent 16S rRNA gene sequencing. Bacterial activity was measured by (3)H-leucine uptake rates. After incubation, sub-ice and sea-ice communities degraded 94% and 48% of the initial hydrocarbons, respectively. Hydrocarbon exposure changed the composition of sea-ice and sub-ice communities; in sea-ice microcosms, Bacteroidetes (mainly Polaribacter) dominated whereas in sub-ice microcosms, the contribution of Epsilonproteobacteria increased, and that of Alphaproteobacteria and Bacteroidetes decreased. Sequencing data revealed a decline in diversity and increases in Colwellia and Moritella in oil-treated microcosms. Low concentration of dissolved organic matter (DOM) in sub-ice seawater may explain higher hydrocarbon degradation when compared to sea ice, where DOM was abundant and composed of labile exopolysaccharides.

  3. ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Ecological Soil Screening Level (Eco-SSL) Work Group, composed of scientists and risk assessors from EPA, Environment Canada, DOE, Army, Navy, Air Force, states, industry, academia, and consulting companies, has been working on the development of scientifically sound, ecologi...

  4. ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Ecological Soil Screening Level (Eco-SSL) Work Group, composed of scientists and risk assessors from EPA, Environment Canada, DOE, Army, Navy, Air Force, states, industry, academia, and consulting companies, has been working on the development of scientifically sound, ecologi...

  5. Improving pandemic influenza risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Russell, Colin A; Kasson, Peter M; Donis, Ruben O; Riley, Steven; Dunbar, John; Rambaut, Andrew; Asher, Jason; Burke, Stephen; Davis, C Todd; Garten, Rebecca J; Gnanakaran, Sandrasegaram; Hay, Simon I; Herfst, Sander; Lewis, Nicola S; Lloyd-Smith, James O; Macken, Catherine A; Maurer-Stroh, Sebastian; Neuhaus, Elizabeth; Parrish, Colin R; Pepin, Kim M; Shepard, Samuel S; Smith, David L; Suarez, David L; Trock, Susan C; Widdowson, Marc-Alain; George, Dylan B; Lipsitch, Marc; Bloom, Jesse D

    2014-10-16

    Assessing the pandemic risk posed by specific non-human influenza A viruses is an important goal in public health research. As influenza virus genome sequencing becomes cheaper, faster, and more readily available, the ability to predict pandemic potential from sequence data could transform pandemic influenza risk assessment capabilities. However, the complexities of the relationships between virus genotype and phenotype make such predictions extremely difficult. The integration of experimental work, computational tool development, and analysis of evolutionary pathways, together with refinements to influenza surveillance, has the potential to transform our ability to assess the risks posed to humans by non-human influenza viruses and lead to improved pandemic preparedness and response.

  6. Quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Weinstock, Robert M (Inventor); Smidts, Carol S (Inventor); Mosleh, Ali (Inventor); Chang, Yung-Hsien (Inventor); Swaminathan, Sankaran (Inventor); Groen, Francisco J (Inventor); Tan, Zhibin (Inventor)

    2001-01-01

    A quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS) builds a risk model of a system for which risk of failure is being assessed, then analyzes the risk of the system corresponding to the risk model. The QRAS performs sensitivity analysis of the risk model by altering fundamental components and quantifications built into the risk model, then re-analyzes the risk of the system using the modifications. More particularly, the risk model is built by building a hierarchy, creating a mission timeline, quantifying failure modes, and building/editing event sequence diagrams. Multiplicities, dependencies, and redundancies of the system are included in the risk model. For analysis runs, a fixed baseline is first constructed and stored. This baseline contains the lowest level scenarios, preserved in event tree structure. The analysis runs, at any level of the hierarchy and below, access this baseline for risk quantitative computation as well as ranking of particular risks. A standalone Tool Box capability exists, allowing the user to store application programs within QRAS.

  7. Microcosms as potential screening tools for evaluating transport and effects of toxic substances

    SciTech Connect

    Ausmus, B.S.; Eddlemon, G.K.; Draggan, S.J.; Giddhings, J.M.; Jackson, D.R.; Luxmoore, R.J.; O'Neill, E.G.; O'Neill, R.V.; Ross-Todd, M.; Van Voris, P.

    1980-06-01

    Terrestrial and aquatic microcosms were evaluated for use in research on environmental contaminants. Research completed in this project attempted to: (1) evaluate relationships among size, complexity, stability, and replicability; (2) assess the simularity between microcosm results and actual environmental transport and effects; (3) identify and quantify system-level parameters that might be sensitive indicators of effects of chemical contaminants; (4) determine the relationship between system-level parameters measured in microcosms and in natural ecosystems; and (5) suggest protocols for establishing, maintaining, and interpreting results from microcosms. A number of experimental approaches using several microcosm designs and contaminants are reported. The use of terrestrial microcosm results was evaluated in conjunction with mathematical simulation models as a means of extending short-term exprimental results to interpret conditions as they might occur in the natural ecosystem. Although microcosms offer an excellent experimental system, their application to toxic substance testing is not a straightforward matter. They are characterized by complex dynamics and counterintuitive responses just as is the ecosystem to which they are an analog. These factors notwithstanding, microcosms do offer an excellent means of studying specific aspects of contaminant behavior and ecosystem processes. With appropriate attention to the design of specific questions, answers to which are relevant to interpreting ecological transport and effects of contaminants, microcosms can be useful tools.

  8. Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments.

    PubMed

    Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems - examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

  9. Risk assessment in international operations

    SciTech Connect

    Stricklin, Daniela L.

    2008-11-15

    During international peace-keeping missions, a diverse number of non-battle hazards may be encountered, which range from heavily polluted areas, endemic disease, toxic industrial materials, local violence, traffic, and even psychological factors. Hence, elevated risk levels from a variety of sources are encountered during deployments. With the emphasis within the Swedish military moving from national defense towards prioritization of international missions in atypical environments, the risk of health consequences, including long term health effects, has received greater consideration. The Swedish military is interested in designing an optimal approach for assessment of health threats during deployments. The Medical Intelligence group at FOI CBRN Security and Defence in Umea has, on request from and in collaboration with the Swedish Armed Forces, reviewed a variety of international health threat and risk assessment models for military operations. Application of risk assessment methods used in different phases of military operations will be reviewed. An overview of different international approaches used in operational risk management (ORM) will be presented as well as a discussion of the specific needs and constraints for health risk assessment in military operations. This work highlights the specific challenges of risk assessment that are unique to the deployment setting such as the assessment of exposures to a variety of diverse hazards concurrently.

  10. Effects of Lactobacillus rhamnosus GG on saliva-derived microcosms.

    PubMed

    Pham, Lien Chi; Hoogenkamp, Michel A; Exterkate, Rob A M; Terefework, Zewdu; de Soet, Johannes J; ten Cate, Jacob M; Crielaard, Wim; Zaura, Egija

    2011-02-01

    The probiotic strain Lactobacillus rhamnosus GG (LGG) is shown to hamper the presence of mutans streptococci in saliva and may have positive effects on oral health. We investigated the effects of LGG on the cariogenic potential and microbial composition of saliva-derived microcosms. Single and dual species biofilms of LGG and Streptococcus mutans, and saliva-derived microcosms with or without LGG were grown in an Active Attachment Biofilm model. The microcosms were grown on bovine dentin/enamel discs in the presence or absence of sucrose (suc+/suc-). The presence of LGG was determined by multiplex ligation-dependent probe amplification (MLPA) and real-time PCR. Mutans streptococci (MS) and total viable counts, pH of the spent medium, capacity of lactate formation and integrated mineral loss in dentin was assessed. MLPA was used for identification and relative quantification of 20 oral microorganisms in the microcosms. Principal Component Analysis was applied to MLPA data. LGG inhibited the growth of S. mutans in dual species biofilms and did not affect the pH. LGG established in saliva-derived microcosms and reduced MS counts significantly, but did not affect pH or dentin demineralization. Simultaneous growth of the microcosms with LGG under heavy cariogenic conditions (suc+) introduced a compositional shift in the microbial community. The CFU, real-time PCR and MLPA data correlated significantly. We conclude that LGG established into and inhibited the growth of MS in complex saliva-derived biofilms, but this had no significant effect on cariogenic potential of the microcosms. This suggests that other microorganisms besides MS were responsible for increased cariogenicity of sucrose-exposed biofilms. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Carcinogen risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Hazelwoold, R.N.

    1987-01-01

    This article describes the methods by which risk factors for carcinogenic hazards are determined and the limitations inherent in the process. From statistical and epidemiological studies, the major identifiable factors related to cancer in the United States were determined to be cigarette smoking, diet, reproductive and sexual behavior, infections, ultraviolet and ionizing radiation, and alcohol consumption. The incidence of lung cancer due to air pollutants was estimated to be less than 2%. Research needs were discussed.

  12. Qualitative methods for assessing risk

    SciTech Connect

    Mahn, J.A.; Hannaman, G.W.; Kryska, P.

    1995-03-01

    The purpose of this document is to describe a qualitative risk assessment process that supplements the requirements of DOE/AL 5481.1B. Although facility managers have a choice of assessing risk either quantitatively or qualitatively, trade offs are involved in making the most appropriate choice for a given application. The results that can be obtained from a quantitative risk assessment are significantly more robust than those results derived from a qualitative approach. However, the advantages derived from quantitative risk assessment are achieved at a greater expenditure of money, time and convenience. This document provides the elements of a framework for performing a much less costly qualitative risk assessment, while retaining the best attributes of quantitative methods. The approach discussed herein will; (1) provide facility managers with the tools to prepare consistent, site wide assessments, and (2) aid the reviewers who may be tasked to evaluate the assessments. Added cost/benefit measures of the qualitative methodology include the identification of mechanisms for optimally allocating resources for minimizing risk in an expeditious, and fiscally responsible manner.

  13. APPROACHES FOR INTEGRATED RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    Recognizing the need to enhance the effectiveness and efficiency of risk assessments globally, the WHO International Programme on Chemical Safety, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, the European Commission, and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development form...

  14. RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENT: HALOGENATED SOLVENTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    This source category previously subjected to a technology-based standard will be examined to determine if health or ecological risks are significant enough to warrant further regulation for Halogenated Solvent Degreasing Facilities. These assessments utilize existing models and d...

  15. APPROACHES FOR INTEGRATED RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    Recognizing the need to enhance the effectiveness and efficiency of risk assessments globally, the WHO International Programme on Chemical Safety, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, the European Commission, and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development form...

  16. Using Microcosms To Teach about the Environment.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kaufman, Donald G.; Taylor, Lisa

    A microcosm is a small, completely sealed, self-sustaining ecosystem. Once a microcosm has been sealed in a transparent container, only light and some heat can enter and only excess heat can leave. This manual describes how to set up aquatic microcosms using glass jars and little or no collecting equipment. The activities can be tailored to suit…

  17. Using Microcosms To Teach about the Environment.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kaufman, Donald G.; Taylor, Lisa

    A microcosm is a small, completely sealed, self-sustaining ecosystem. Once a microcosm has been sealed in a transparent container, only light and some heat can enter and only excess heat can leave. This manual describes how to set up aquatic microcosms using glass jars and little or no collecting equipment. The activities can be tailored to suit…

  18. The risk assessment information system

    SciTech Connect

    Kerr, S.B.; Bonczek, R.R.; McGinn, C.W.; Land, M.L.; Bloom, L.D.; Sample, B.E.; Dolislager, F.G.

    1998-06-01

    In an effort to provide service-oriented environmental risk assessment expertise, the Department of Energy (DOE) Center for Risk Excellence (CRE) and DOE Oak Ridge Operations Office (ORO) are sponsoring Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) to develop a web-based system for disseminating risk tools and information to its users. This system, the Risk Assessment Information System (RAIS), was initially developed to support the site-specific needs of the DOE-ORO Environmental Restoration Risk Assessment Program. With support from the CRE, the system is currently being expanded to benefit all DOE risk information users and can be tailored to meet site-specific needs. Taking advantage of searchable and executable databases, menu-driven queries, and data downloads, using the latest World Wide Web technologies, the RAIS offers essential tools that are used in the risk assessment process or anywhere from project scoping to implementation. The RAIS tools can be located directly at http://risk.lsd.ornl.gov/homepage/rap{_}tool.htm or through the CRE`s homepage at http://www.doe.gov/riskcenter/home.html.

  19. Anthropic Risk Assessment on Biodiversity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Piragnolo, M.; Pirotti, F.; Vettore, A.; Salogni, G.

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a methodology for risk assessment of anthropic activities on habitats and species. The method has been developed for Veneto Region, in order to simplify and improve the quality of EIA procedure (VINCA). Habitats and species, animals and plants, are protected by European Directive 92/43/EEC and 2009/147/EC but they are subject at hazard due to pollution produced by human activities. Biodiversity risks may conduct to deterioration and disturbance in ecological niches, with consequence of loss of biodiversity. Ecological risk assessment applied on Natura 2000 network, is needed to best practice of management and monitoring of environment and natural resources. Threats, pressure and activities, stress and indicators may be managed by geodatabase and analysed using GIS technology. The method used is the classic risk assessment in ecological context, and it defines the natural hazard as influence, element of risk as interference and vulnerability. Also it defines a new parameter called pressure. It uses risk matrix for the risk analysis on spatial and temporal scale. The methodology is qualitative and applies the precautionary principle in environmental assessment. The final product is a matrix which excludes the risk and could find application in the development of a territorial information system.

  20. Improving pandemic influenza risk assessment

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Assessing the pandemic risk posed by specific non-human influenza A viruses remains a complex challenge. As influenza virus genome sequencing becomes cheaper, faster and more readily available, the ability to predict pandemic potential from sequence data could transform pandemic influenza risk asses...

  1. Groundwater abstraction pollution risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Lytton, L; Howe, S; Sage, R; Greenaway, P

    2003-01-01

    A generic groundwater pollution risk assessment methodology has been developed to enable the evaluation and ranking of the potential risk of pollution to groundwater abstractions. The ranking can then be used to prioritise risk management or mitigation procedures in a robust and quantifiable framework and thus inform business investment decisions. The risk assessment consider the three components of the pollution transport model: source-pathway-receptor. For groundwater abstractions these correspond to land use (with associated pollutants and shallow subsurface characteristics), aquifer and the abstraction borehole. An hierarchical approach was chosen to allow the risk assessment to be successfully carried out with different quality data for different parts of the model. The 400-day groundwater protection zone defines the catchment boundary that form the spatial limit of the land use audit for each receptor. A risk score is obtained for each land use (potential pollution source) within the catchment. These scores are derived by considering the characteristics (such as load, persistence and toxicity) of all pollutants pertaining to each land use, their on-site management and the potential for the unsaturated subsurface to attenuate their effects in the event of a release. Risk scores are also applied to the aquifer characteristics (as pollutant pathway) and to the abstraction borehole (as pollutant receptor). Each risk score is accompanied by an uncertainty score which provides a guide to the confidence in the data used to compile the risk assessment. The application of the methodology has highlighted a number of problems in this type of work and results of initial case studies are being used to trial alternative scoring methods and a more simplified approach to accelerate the process of pollution risk assessment.

  2. Neurotoxicity in risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Weiss, B.

    1988-01-01

    Neurotoxicity is a property of many metals, even those deemed biologically essential. Manganese, one of the essential elements, can induce a syndrome displaying aspects of both Parkinsonism and dystonia, but accompanied, as well, by psychological abnormalities. At low exposure levels, however, neurotoxicity may be detectable with psychological tests. Mercury vapor exposure also induces neurological signs, psychological aberrations, and subtle evidence of dysfunction on psychological tests. Methylmercury and lead are particularly toxic to the developing brain. The most recent research indicates that psychological testing may uncover deficits even in children showing no evidence of impairment. Because of their special features, neurotoxic endpoints may have to be evaluated for risks by a process that diverges significantly from the standard program based on carcinogenicity.

  3. Avalanche risk assessment in Russia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Komarov, Anton; Seliverstov, Yury; Sokratov, Sergey; Glazovskaya, Tatiana; Turchaniniva, Alla

    2017-04-01

    The avalanche prone area covers about 3 million square kilometers or 18% of total area of Russia and pose a significant problem in most mountain regions of the country. The constant growth of economic activity, especially in the North Caucasus region and therefore the increased avalanche hazard lead to the demand of the large-scale avalanche risk assessment methods development. Such methods are needed for the determination of appropriate avalanche protection measures as well as for economic assessments during all stages of spatial planning of the territory. The requirement of natural hazard risk assessments is determined by the Federal Law of Russian Federation. However, Russian Guidelines (SP 11-103-97; SP 47.13330.2012) are not clearly presented concerning avalanche risk assessment calculations. A great size of Russia territory, vast diversity of natural conditions and large variations in type and level of economic development of different regions cause significant variations in avalanche risk values. At the first stage of research the small scale avalanche risk assessment was performed in order to identify the most common patterns of risk situations and to calculate full social risk and individual risk. The full social avalanche risk for the territory of country was estimated at 91 victims. The area of territory with individual risk values lesser then 1×10(-6) covers more than 92 % of mountain areas of the country. Within these territories the safety of population can be achieved mainly by organizational activities. Approximately 7% of mountain areas have 1×10(-6) - 1×10(-4) individual risk values and require specific mitigation measures to protect people and infrastructure. Territories with individual risk values 1×10(-4) and above covers about 0,1 % of the territory and include the most severe and hazardous mountain areas. The whole specter of mitigation measures is required in order to minimize risk. The future development of such areas is not recommended

  4. Uranium Transformations in Static Microcosms

    SciTech Connect

    Kelly, Shelly D; Wu, Weimin; Yang, Fan; Criddle, Craig; Marsh, Terence; O'Loughlin, Edward J.; Ravel, Bruce; Watson, David B; Jardine, Philip M; Kemner, Kenneth M

    2009-01-01

    Elucidation of complex biogeochemical processes and their effects on speciation of U in the subsurface is critical for developing remediation strategies with an understanding of stability. We have developed static microcosms that are similar to bioreduction process studies in situ under laminar flow conditions or in sediment pores. Uranium L{sub 3}-edge X-ray absorption near-edge spectroscopy analysis with depth in the microcosms indicated that transformation of U{sup VI} to U{sup IV} occurred by at least two distinct processes. Extended X-ray absorption fine structure (EXAFS) analysis indicated that initial U{sup VI} species associated with C- and P-containing ligands were transformed to U{sup IV} in the form of uraninite and U associated with Fe-bound ligands. Microbial community analysis identified putative Fe{sup III} and sulfate reducers at two different depths in the microcosms. The slow reduction of U{sup VI} to U{sup IV} may contribute the stability of U{sup IV} within microcosms at 11 months after a decrease in bioreducing conditions due to limited electron donors.

  5. Uranium transformations in static microcosms.

    SciTech Connect

    Kelly, S. D.; Wu, W.; Yang, F.; Criddle, C.; Marsh, T. L.; O'Loughlin, E. J.; Ravel, B.; Watson, D.; Jardine, P. M.; Kemner, K. M.; Stanford Univ.; Michigan State Univ.; ORNL; BNL; EXAFS Analysis

    2010-01-01

    Elucidation of complex biogeochemical processes and their effects on speciation of U in the subsurface is critical for developing remediation strategies with an understanding of stability. We have developed static microcosms that are similar to bioreduction process studies in situ under laminar flow conditions or in sediment pores. Uranium L{sub 3}-edge X-ray absorption near-edge spectroscopy analysis with depth in the microcosms indicated that transformation of U{sup VI} to U{sup IV} occurred by at least two distinct processes. Extended X-ray absorption fine structure (EXAFS) analysis indicated that initial U{sup VI} species associated with C- and P-containing ligands were transformed to U{sup IV} in the form of uraninite and U associated with Fe-bound ligands. Microbial community analysis identified putative Fe{sup III} and sulfate reducers at two different depths in the microcosms. The slow reduction of U{sup VI} to U{sup IV} may contribute the stability of U{sup IV} within microcosms at 11 months after a decrease in bioreducing conditions due to limited electron donors.

  6. Know Thyself: Macrocosm and Microcosm

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tubbs, Nigel

    2011-01-01

    There was a time when, in the Liberal Arts, philosophy and education enjoyed the most intimate and productive relationship. Drawing together philosophy and nature they sought to understand the greatest of human mysteries. This meant thinking about both the macrocosm and the microcosm and especially the relation between them. In this relation lies…

  7. Know Thyself: Macrocosm and Microcosm

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tubbs, Nigel

    2011-01-01

    There was a time when, in the Liberal Arts, philosophy and education enjoyed the most intimate and productive relationship. Drawing together philosophy and nature they sought to understand the greatest of human mysteries. This meant thinking about both the macrocosm and the microcosm and especially the relation between them. In this relation lies…

  8. Taking the Risk Out of Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2005-01-01

    The ability to understand risks and have the right strategies in place when risky events occur is essential in the workplace. More and more organizations are being confronted with concerns over how to measure their risks or what kind of risks they can take when certain events transpire that could have a negative impact. NASA is one organization that faces these challenges on a daily basis, as effective risk management is critical to the success of its missions especially the Space Shuttle missions. On July 29, 1996, former NASA Administrator Daniel Goldin charged NASA s Office of Safety and Mission Assurance with developing a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) tool to support decisions on the funding of Space Shuttle upgrades. When issuing the directive, Goldin said, "Since I came to NASA [in 1992], we've spent billions of dollars on Shuttle upgrades without knowing how much they improve safety. I want a tool to help base upgrade decisions on risk." Work on the PRA tool began immediately. The resulting prototype, the Quantitative Risk Assessment System (QRAS) Version 1.0, was jointly developed by NASA s Marshall Space Flight Center, its Office of Safety and Mission Assurance, and researchers at the University of Maryland. QRAS software automatically expands the reliability logic models of systems to evaluate the probability of highly detrimental outcomes occurring in complex systems that are subject to potential accident scenarios. Even in its earliest forms, QRAS was used to begin PRA modeling of the Space Shuttle. In parallel, the development of QRAS continued, with the goal of making it a world-class tool, one that was especially suited to NASA s unique needs. From the beginning, an important conceptual goal in the development of QRAS was for it to help bridge the gap between the professional risk analyst and the design engineer. In the past, only the professional risk analyst could perform, modify, use, and perhaps even adequately understand PRA. NASA wanted

  9. Cancer risk assessment of toxaphene.

    PubMed

    Buranatrevedh, Surasak

    2004-07-01

    The primary purpose is to do cancer risk assessment of toxaphene by using four steps of risk assessment proposed by the United States National Academy of Sciences/National Research Council (NAS/NRC). Four steps of risk assessment including hazard identification, dose-response relationship, exposure assessment, and risk characterization were used to evaluate cancer risk of toxaphene. Toxaphene was the most heavily used insecticide in many parts of the world before it was banned in 1982. It increased incidence of neoplasms of liver and uterus in mice and increased incidence of neoplasms of endocrine organs, thyroid, pituitary, adrenal, mammary glands, and reproductive systems in rats. From mice's and rats' study, slope factor for toxaphene is 0.8557 (mg/ kg/day)(-1). Lifetime average daily dose (LADD) of toxaphene from ambient air, surface water, soil, and fish were 1.08 x 10(-6), 5.71 x 10(-6), 3.43 x 10(-7), and 7.96 x 10(-5) mg/kg/day, respectively. Cancer risk of toxaphene for average exposure is 7.42 x 10(-5). From this study, toxaphene might have carcinogenic risk among humans.

  10. Qualitative methods for assessing risk

    SciTech Connect

    Mahn, J.A.; Hannaman, G.W.; Kryska, P.

    1995-04-01

    The Department of Energy`s (DOE) non-nuclear facilities generally require only a qualitative accident analysis to assess facility risks in accordance with DOE Order 5481.1B, Safety Analysis and Review System. Achieving a meaningful qualitative assessment of risk necessarily requires the use of suitable non-numerical assessment criteria. Typically, the methods and criteria for assigning facility-specific accident scenarios to the qualitative severity and likelihood classification system in the DOE order requires significant judgment in many applications. Systematic methods for more consistently assigning the total accident scenario frequency and associated consequences are required to substantiate and enhance future risk ranking between various activities at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL). SNL`s Risk Management and National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) Department has developed an improved methodology for performing qualitative risk assessments in accordance wi the DOE order requirements. Products of this effort are an improved set of qualitative description that permit (1) definition of the severity for both technical and programmatic consequences that may result from a variety of accident scenarios, and (2) qualitative representation of the likelihood of occurrence. These sets of descriptions are intended to facilitate proper application of DOE criteria for assessing facility risks.

  11. Assessing Your Weight and Health Risk

    MedlinePlus

    ... Health Professional Resources Assessing Your Weight and Health Risk Assessment of weight and health risk involves using ... risk for developing obesity-associated diseases or conditions. Risk Factors for Health Topics Associated With Obesity Along ...

  12. Guidelines for neurotoxicity risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    1998-04-01

    These Guidelines describe the principles, concepts, and procedures that the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) will follow in evaluating data on potential neurotoxicity associated with exposure to environmental toxicants. The procedures outlined are intended to help develop a sound scientific basis for neurotoxicity risk assessment, promote consistency in the Agency`s assessment of toxic effects on the nervous system, and inform others of the approaches used by the Agency in those assessments.

  13. Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment

    MedlinePlus

    ... HRS Find a Specialist Share Twitter Facebook SCA Risk Assessment Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) occurs abruptly and without ... people of all ages and health conditions. Start Risk Assessment The Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment Tool ...

  14. Risk Assessment for Stonecutting Enterprises

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aleksandrova, A. J.; Timofeeva, S. S.

    2017-04-01

    Working conditions at enterprises and artisanal workshops for the processing of jewelry and ornamental stones were considered. The main stages of the technological process for processing of stone raw materials were shown; dangerous processes in the extraction of stone and its processing were identified. The characteristic of harmful and dangerous production factors affecting stonecutters is given. It was revealed that the most dangerous are the increased level of noise and vibration, as well as chemical reagents. The results of a special assessment of the working conditions of stone-cutting plant workers are studied. Professions with high professional risk were identified; an analysis of occupational risks and occupational injuries was carried out. Risk assessment was produced by several methods; professions with high and medium risk indicators were identified by results of the evaluation. The application of risk assessment methods was given the possibility to justify rational measures reducing risks to the lowest possible level. The received quantitative indicators of risk of workers of the stone-cutting enterprises are the result of this work.

  15. Earthquake Risk Assessment and Risk Transfer

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liechti, D.; Zbinden, A.; Rüttener, E.

    Research on risk assessment of natural catastrophes is very important for estimating its economical and social impact. The loss potentials of such disasters (e.g. earthquake and storms) for property owners, insurance and nationwide economies are driven by the hazard, the damageability (vulnerability) of buildings and infrastructures and depend on the ability to transfer these losses to different parties. In addition, the geographic distribution of the exposed values, the uncertainty of building vulnerability and the individual deductible are main factors determining the size of a loss. The deductible is the key element that steers the distribution of losses between insured and insurer. Therefore the risk analysis concentrates on deductible and vulnerability of insured buildings and maps their variations to allow efficient decisions. With consideration to stochastic event sets, the corresponding event losses can be modelled as expected loss grades of a Beta probability density function. Based on deductible and standard deviation of expected loss grades, the loss for the insured and for the insurer can be quantified. In addition, the varying deductible impact on different geographic regions can be described. This analysis has been carried out for earthquake insurance portfolios with various building types and different deductibles. Besides quantifying loss distributions between insured and insurer based on uncertainty assumptions and deductible consideration, mapping yields ideas to optimise the risk transfer process and can be used for developing risk mitigation strategies.

  16. Assessing the Relative Risk of Aerocapture Using Probabalistic Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Percy, Thomas K.; Bright, Ellanee; Torres, Abel O.

    2005-01-01

    A recent study performed for the Aerocapture Technology Area in the In-Space Propulsion Technology Projects Office at the Marshall Space Flight Center investigated the relative risk of various capture techniques for Mars missions. Aerocapture has been proposed as a possible capture technique for future Mars missions but has been perceived by many in the community as a higher risk option as compared to aerobraking and propulsive capture. By performing a probabilistic risk assessment on aerocapture, aerobraking and propulsive capture, a comparison was made to uncover the projected relative risks of these three maneuvers. For mission planners, this knowledge will allow them to decide if the mass savings provided by aerocapture warrant any incremental risk exposure. The study focuses on a Mars Sample Return mission currently under investigation at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL). In each case (propulsive, aerobraking and aerocapture), the Earth return vehicle is inserted into Martian orbit by one of the three techniques being investigated. A baseline spacecraft was established through initial sizing exercises performed by JPL's Team X. While Team X design results provided the baseline and common thread between the spacecraft, in each case the Team X results were supplemented by historical data as needed. Propulsion, thermal protection, guidance, navigation and control, software, solar arrays, navigation and targeting and atmospheric prediction were investigated. A qualitative assessment of human reliability was also included. Results show that different risk drivers contribute significantly to each capture technique. For aerocapture, the significant drivers include propulsion system failures and atmospheric prediction errors. Software and guidance hardware contribute the most to aerobraking risk. Propulsive capture risk is mainly driven by anomalous solar array degradation and propulsion system failures. While each subsystem contributes differently to the risk of

  17. Improving pandemic influenza risk assessment

    PubMed Central

    Russell, Colin A; Kasson, Peter M; Donis, Ruben O; Riley, Steven; Dunbar, John; Rambaut, Andrew; Asher, Jason; Burke, Stephen; Davis, C Todd; Garten, Rebecca J; Gnanakaran, Sandrasegaram; Hay, Simon I; Herfst, Sander; Lewis, Nicola S; Lloyd-Smith, James O; Macken, Catherine A; Maurer-Stroh, Sebastian; Neuhaus, Elizabeth; Parrish, Colin R; Pepin, Kim M; Shepard, Samuel S; Smith, David L; Suarez, David L; Trock, Susan C; Widdowson, Marc-Alain; George, Dylan B; Lipsitch, Marc; Bloom, Jesse D

    2014-01-01

    Assessing the pandemic risk posed by specific non-human influenza A viruses is an important goal in public health research. As influenza virus genome sequencing becomes cheaper, faster, and more readily available, the ability to predict pandemic potential from sequence data could transform pandemic influenza risk assessment capabilities. However, the complexities of the relationships between virus genotype and phenotype make such predictions extremely difficult. The integration of experimental work, computational tool development, and analysis of evolutionary pathways, together with refinements to influenza surveillance, has the potential to transform our ability to assess the risks posed to humans by non-human influenza viruses and lead to improved pandemic preparedness and response. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.03883.001 PMID:25321142

  18. Toxicological risk assessment. Volume 2

    SciTech Connect

    Clayson, D.B.; Krewski, D.; Munro, I.

    1985-01-01

    This book contains the following chapters: Epidemiological Methods for Assessment of Human Cancer Risk. Assessment of Human Exposure to Environmental Contaminants with Special Reference to Cancer. Influence of Nutrition, Immunologic Status, and Other Factors on Development of Cancer. Significance of Benefits in Regulatory Decision Making. Measuring Health Benefits. Food Safety Regulations. Case Study-Asbestos. Vinyl Chloride - A Cancer Case Study. An Integrated Approach to the Study of Formaldehyde Carcinogenicity in Rats and Mice. Determination of Human Risk in Regulating Polychlorinated Biphenyls Saccharin - A Bitter-Sweet Case.

  19. Probabilistic risk assessment: Number 219

    SciTech Connect

    Bari, R.A.

    1985-11-13

    This report describes a methodology for analyzing the safety of nuclear power plants. A historical overview of plants in the US is provided, and past, present, and future nuclear safety and risk assessment are discussed. A primer on nuclear power plants is provided with a discussion of pressurized water reactors (PWR) and boiling water reactors (BWR) and their operation and containment. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), utilizing both event-tree and fault-tree analysis, is discussed as a tool in reactor safety, decision making, and communications. (FI)

  20. Use of in situ microcosms for evaluating reservoir water management options

    SciTech Connect

    French, R.H. ); Cooper, J.J. ); Vigg, S. )

    1988-10-01

    The use of in situ microcosms for performing reservoir trophic studies and aiding in the design of reservoir restoration programs are discussed. The site of this study was Lahontan Reservoir, Nevada, which has experienced water quality problems associated with monospecific blooms of blue-green algae and hypolimnetic dissolved oxygen depletions. In situ microcosms were used to investigate the response of phytoplankton species composition to additions of the nutrients nitrogen, phosphorus, and the phosphorus precipitant aluminum sulfate. At the end of the 16-day experimental period, the microcosms receiving the phosphate treatments yielded the highest standing crops of algae and the greatest percentage composition of blue-green algae. The microcosms receiving the nitrate treatment exhibited greater initial algal concentrations followed by a decline in phytoplankton, which coincided with an increase in the zoo-plankton population. The results presented here suggest that microcosms can be a cost-effective method for assessing reservoir water quality and planning restoration programs.

  1. Caries Risk Assessment Item Importance

    PubMed Central

    Chaffee, B.W.; Featherstone, J.D.B.; Gansky, S.A.; Cheng, J.; Zhan, L.

    2016-01-01

    Caries risk assessment (CRA) is widely recommended for dental caries management. Little is known regarding how practitioners use individual CRA items to determine risk and which individual items independently predict clinical outcomes in children younger than 6 y. The objective of this study was to assess the relative importance of pediatric CRA items in dental providers’ decision making regarding patient risk and in association with clinically evident caries, cross-sectionally and longitudinally. CRA information was abstracted retrospectively from electronic patient records of children initially aged 6 to 72 mo at a university pediatric dentistry clinic (n = 3,810 baseline; n = 1,315 with follow-up). The 17-item CRA form included caries risk indicators, caries protective items, and clinical indicators. Conditional random forests classification trees were implemented to identify and assign variable importance to CRA items independently associated with baseline high-risk designation, baseline evident tooth decay, and follow-up evident decay. Thirteen individual CRA items, including all clinical indicators and all but 1 risk indicator, were independently and statistically significantly associated with student/resident providers’ caries risk designation. Provider-assigned baseline risk category was strongly associated with follow-up decay, which increased from low (20.4%) to moderate (30.6%) to high/extreme risk patients (68.7%). Of baseline CRA items, before adjustment, 12 were associated with baseline decay and 7 with decay at follow-up; however, in the conditional random forests models, only the clinical indicators (evident decay, dental plaque, and recent restoration placement) and 1 risk indicator (frequent snacking) were independently and statistically significantly associated with future disease, for which baseline evident decay was the strongest predictor. In this predominantly high-risk population under caries-preventive care, more individual CRA items

  2. Dynamical systems probabilistic risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Denman, Matthew R.; Ames, Arlo Leroy

    2014-03-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is the primary tool used to risk-inform nuclear power regulatory and licensing activities. Risk-informed regulations are intended to reduce inherent conservatism in regulatory metrics (e.g., allowable operating conditions and technical specifications) which are built into the regulatory framework by quantifying both the total risk profile as well as the change in the risk profile caused by an event or action (e.g., in-service inspection procedures or power uprates). Dynamical Systems (DS) analysis has been used to understand unintended time-dependent feedbacks in both industrial and organizational settings. In dynamical systems analysis, feedback loops can be characterized and studied as a function of time to describe the changes to the reliability of plant Structures, Systems and Components (SSCs). While DS has been used in many subject areas, some even within the PRA community, it has not been applied toward creating long-time horizon, dynamic PRAs (with time scales ranging between days and decades depending upon the analysis). Understanding slowly developing dynamic effects, such as wear-out, on SSC reliabilities may be instrumental in ensuring a safely and reliably operating nuclear fleet. Improving the estimation of a plant's continuously changing risk profile will allow for more meaningful risk insights, greater stakeholder confidence in risk insights, and increased operational flexibility.

  3. Pyrene fate in surface soil microcosms

    SciTech Connect

    Roper, J.C.; Pfaender, F.K.

    1995-12-31

    Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons are ubiquitous products of natural and anthropogenic combustion processes. They are also common contaminants at hazardous waste sites. This study assessed the fate of pyrene in pristine and previously exposed soils. Pyrene was incubated with surface soils in 1 liter microcosms. The study was performed using soil samples collected from the first 10 cm of a pristine forest soil profile and from soil at a former wood treatment site contaminated with creosote. Microcosms were constantly aerated and soil moisture was maintained at approximately 25%. Variations in the partitioning of pyrene incubated with soil into methanol and methylene chloride extractions were measured over time. Hydroxypyrene was found to be an abiotic transformation product in pristine soil. Products were separated from the extracts by HPLC and identified by GC/MS and compared to authentic standards. After an extended period of adaptation, mineralization began in the pristine soils while metabolism in the previously exposed soil was immediate. Fractionation of soils containing {sup 14}C-pyrene quantified a fraction of label which was neither degraded nor extractable using conventional methods. The amount of label in this fraction was related to the amount of microbial metabolism of the pyrene.

  4. Where You Live: Risk Assessment

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Where you live page shows visitors to the risk assessment website how to contact their local regional office by state. Since these link to pages maintained by the local offices they will have the most up-to-date contact information.

  5. Collegiate Alcohol Risk Assessment Guide.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Anderson, David S.; Janosik, Steven M.

    An instrument to help administrators assess the liability resulting from alcohol-related activities on the college campus is presented. The hazards and associated liability of these events can be reduced by developing an aggressive risk management strategy designed to inform, educate, and coordinate the actions of individuals and groups associated…

  6. Integrated Disposal Facility Risk Assessment

    SciTech Connect

    MANN, F. M.

    2003-06-03

    An environmental risk assessment associated with the disposal of projected Immobilized Low-Activity Waste, solid wastes and failed or decommissioned melters in an Integrated Disposal Facility was performed. Based on the analyses all performance objectives associated with the groundwater, air, and intruder pathways were met.

  7. Picillo Farm ecological risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Rury, P.M.; Turton, D.J.

    1995-12-31

    Under the direction of US Environmental Protection Agency, Region 1, a baseline ecological risk assessment (ERA) was conducted for terrestrial, wetland, and aquatic ecosystems located on-site and off-site/downstream of a Superfund site in Coventry, Rhode Island. Surveys of biota and ecosystems were focused in the vicinity of 26 soil, sediment, and surface water sampling locations used for the RI/FS site contamination assessment, to cross-link data on biological receptors to site-specific habitat maps. Classes of contaminants of concern (COCs), selected independently for each medium based on exceedances of ecotoxicity criteria, for which risks to one or more indicator communities and species were calculated, included VOCs, SVOCs, metals, PCBs and pesticides. Simple hazard quotients were used to estimate risks for benthic and pelagic communities of the aquatic and wetland exposure zones, using AWQC and NOAA sediment guidelines. These aquatic criteria also were applied to a site-specific exposure models for all life stages of the Green Frog (Rana clamitans). To complement the benthic invertebrate risk estimates, site-derived sediments also were used for toxicity tests of Chironomus tentans and Hyalella azteca. Published, species-specific and/or extrapolated toxicity effects endpoints were used in site-specific, mathematical food chain exposure assessment models for the Amedcan Woodcock (Scolopax minor), Short-tailed Shrew (Blarina brevicauda) and Mink (Mustela vison), to estimate organismal risks for a variety of foraging scenarios within one or more exposure zone. Incremental site contributions to risks from metals were inferred using local background data, whereas all risks from organic compounds were assumed to be site-derived.

  8. In-situ subaqueous capping of mercury-contaminated sediments in a fresh-water aquatic system, Part I—Bench-scale microcosm study to assess methylmercury production

    SciTech Connect

    Randall, Paul M.; Fimmen, Ryan; Lal, Vivek; Darlington, Ramona

    2013-08-15

    Bench-scale microcosm experiments were designed to provide a better understanding of the potential for Hg methylation in sediments from an aquatic environment. Experiments were conducted to examine the function of sulfate concentration, lactate concentration, the presence/absence of an aqueous inorganic Hg spike, and the presence/absence of inoculums of Desulfovibrio desulfuricans, a strain of sulfate-reducing bacteria (SRB) commonly found in the natural sediments of aquatic environments. Incubations were analyzed for both the rate and extent of (methylmercury) MeHg production. Methylation rates were estimated by analyzing MeHg and Hg after 2, 7, 14, 28, and 42 days. The production of metabolic byproducts, including dissolved gases as a proxy for metabolic utilization of carbon substrate, was also monitored. In all treatments amended with lactate, sulfate, Hg, and SRB, MeHg was produced (37 ng/g-sediment dry weight) after only 48 h of incubation and reached a maximum sediment concentration of 127 ng/g-sediment dry weight after the 42 day incubation period. Aqueous phase production of MeHg was observed to be 10 ng/L after 2 day, reaching a maximum observed concentration of 32.8 ng/L after 14 days, and declining to 10.8 ng/L at the end of the incubation period (42 day). The results of this study further demonstrates that, in the presence of an organic carbon substrate, sulfate, and the appropriate consortia of microorganisms, sedimentary Hg will be transformed into MeHg through bacterial metabolism. Further, this study provided the basis for evaluation of an in-situ subaqueous capping strategy that may limit (or potentially enhance) MeHg production. -- Highlights: • Hg methylation by SRB is limited by the depletion of sulfate and carbon. • Hg methylation is sensitive to competition by methanogens for carbon substrate. • In high lactate environment, all lactate was utilized in the microcosms within seven days. • In the absence of adequate metabolic fuel, Me

  9. 24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false Risk assessment. 35.315 Section 35... Provided by a Federal Agency Other Than HUD § 35.315 Risk assessment. Each owner shall complete a risk assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance...

  10. 24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2012-04-01 2012-04-01 false Risk assessment. 35.315 Section 35... Provided by a Federal Agency Other Than HUD § 35.315 Risk assessment. Each owner shall complete a risk assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance...

  11. 24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2013-04-01 2013-04-01 false Risk assessment. 35.315 Section 35... Provided by a Federal Agency Other Than HUD § 35.315 Risk assessment. Each owner shall complete a risk assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance...

  12. 24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Risk assessment. 35.315 Section 35... Provided by a Federal Agency Other Than HUD § 35.315 Risk assessment. Each owner shall complete a risk assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance with...

  13. 24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Risk assessment. 35.315 Section 35... Provided by a Federal Agency Other Than HUD § 35.315 Risk assessment. Each owner shall complete a risk assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance with...

  14. NUREG-1150 risk assessment methodology

    SciTech Connect

    Benjamin, A.S.; Amos, C.N.; Cunningham, M.A.; Murphy, J.A.

    1987-01-01

    This paper describes the methodology developed in support of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NCR's) evaluation of severe accident risks in NUREG-1150. After the accident at Three Mile Island, Unit 2, the NRC initiated a sever accident research program to develop an improved understanding of severe accidents and to provide a second technical basis to support regulatory decisions in this area. A key product of this program is NUREG-1150, which provides estimates of risk for several nuclear reactors of different design. The principal technical analyses for NUREG-1150 were performed at Sandia National Labs. under the Severe Accident Risk Reduction Program and the Accident Sequence Evaluation Program. A major aspect of the work was the development of a methodology that improved upon previous full-scale probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) in several areas which are described.

  15. Effects of the veterinary pharmaceutical ivermectin in indoor aquatic microcosms.

    PubMed

    Boonstra, Harry; Reichman, Erik P; van den Brink, Paul J

    2011-01-01

    The effects of the parasiticide ivermectin were assessed in plankton-dominated indoor microcosms. Ivermectin was applied once at concentrations of 30, 100, 300, 1000, 3000, and 10,000 ng/l. The half-life (dissipation time 50%; DT₅₀) of ivermectin in the water phase ranged from 1.1 to 8.3 days. The lowest NOEC(community) that could be derived on an isolated sampling from the microcosm study by means of multivariate techniques was 100 ng/l. The most sensitive species in the microcosm study were the cladocerans Ceriodaphnia sp. (no observed effect concentration, NOEC = 30 ng/l) and Chydorus sphaericus (NOEC = 100 ng/l). The amphipod Gammarus pulex was less sensitive to ivermectin, showing consistent statistically significant reductions at the 1000-ng/l treatment level. Copepoda taxa decreased directly after application of ivermectin in the highest treatment but had already recovered at day 20 posttreatment. Indirect effects (e.g., increase of rotifers, increased primary production) were observed at the highest treatment level starting only on day 13 of the exposure phase. Cladocera showed the highest sensitivity to ivermectin in both standard laboratory toxicity tests as well as in the microcosm study. This study demonstrates that simple plankton-dominated test systems for assessing the effects of ivermectin can produce results similar to those obtained with large complex outdoor systems.

  16. Effects of the Veterinary Pharmaceutical Ivermectin in Indoor Aquatic Microcosms

    PubMed Central

    Boonstra, Harry; Reichman, Erik P.

    2010-01-01

    The effects of the parasiticide ivermectin were assessed in plankton-dominated indoor microcosms. Ivermectin was applied once at concentrations of 30, 100, 300, 1000, 3000, and 10,000 ng/l. The half-life (dissipation time 50%; DT50) of ivermectin in the water phase ranged from 1.1 to 8.3 days. The lowest NOECcommunity that could be derived on an isolated sampling from the microcosm study by means of multivariate techniques was 100 ng/l. The most sensitive species in the microcosm study were the cladocerans Ceriodaphnia sp. (no observed effect concentration, NOEC = 30 ng/l) and Chydorus sphaericus (NOEC = 100 ng/l). The amphipod Gammarus pulex was less sensitive to ivermectin, showing consistent statistically significant reductions at the 1000-ng/l treatment level. Copepoda taxa decreased directly after application of ivermectin in the highest treatment but had already recovered at day 20 posttreatment. Indirect effects (e.g., increase of rotifers, increased primary production) were observed at the highest treatment level starting only on day 13 of the exposure phase. Cladocera showed the highest sensitivity to ivermectin in both standard laboratory toxicity tests as well as in the microcosm study. This study demonstrates that simple plankton-dominated test systems for assessing the effects of ivermectin can produce results similar to those obtained with large complex outdoor systems. PMID:20422169

  17. Probabilistic risk assessment familiarization training

    SciTech Connect

    Phillabaum, J.L.

    1989-01-01

    Philadelphia Electric Company (PECo) created a Nuclear Group Risk and Reliability Assessment Program Plan in order to focus the utilization of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in support of Limerick Generating Station and Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station. The continuation of a PRA program was committed by PECo to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) prior to be the issuance of an operating license for Limerick Unit 1. It is believed that increased use of PRA techniques to support activities at Limerick and Peach Bottom will enhance PECo's overall nuclear excellence. Training for familiarization with PRA is designed for attendance once by all nuclear group personnel to understand PRA and its potential effect on their jobs. The training content describes the history of PRA and how it applies to PECo's nuclear activities. Key PRA concepts serve as the foundation for the familiarization training. These key concepts are covered in all classes to facilitate an appreciation of the remaining material, which is tailored to the audience. Some of the concepts covered are comparison of regulatory philosophy to PRA techniques, fundamentals of risk/success, risk equation/risk summation, and fault trees and event trees. Building on the concepts, PRA insights and applications are then described that are tailored to the audience.

  18. OVERCOMING OBSTACLES TO POPULATIONS RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    Driven by management goals, statutory requirements and stakeholder interests, populations of wildlife and aquatic organisms often are the assessment endpoint entities (assessment populations) identified in site-specific ecological risk assessments. Yet, risks to populations are ...

  19. Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

    SciTech Connect

    Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

    1994-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms{open_quote} risk assessment{close_quote} and{open_quote} risk management{close_quote} are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of {open_quotes}... the most significant data and uncertainties...{close_quotes} in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are {open_quotes}...those that define and explain the main risk conclusions{close_quotes}. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation.

  20. Ecosystem Services as Assessment Endpoints in Ecological Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    The focus of ecological risk assessment (ERA) is on assessment endpoints, explicit expressions of environmental values to be protected. Traditionally, the ecological entities identified in assessment endpoints have been components of ecosystems deemed by risk assessors to be impo...

  1. La Conchita Landslide Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kropp, A.; Johnson, L.; Magnusen, W.; Hitchcock, C. S.

    2009-12-01

    Following the disastrous landslide in La Conchita in 2005 that resulted in ten deaths, the State of California selected our team to prepare a risk assessment for a committee of key stakeholders. The stakeholders represented the State of California, Ventura County, members of the La Conchita community, the railroad, and the upslope ranch owner (where the slide originated); a group with widely varying views and interests. Our team was charged with characterizing the major hazards, developing a series of mitigation concepts, evaluating the benefits and costs of mitigation, and gathering stakeholder input throughout the process. Two unique elements of the study were the methodologies utilized for the consequence assessment and for the decision-making framework. La Conchita is exposed to multiple slope hazards, each with differing geographical distributions, as well as depth and velocity characteristics. Three consequence matrices were developed so that the potential financial losses, structural vulnerabilities, and human safety exposure could be evaluated. The matrices utilized semi-quantitative loss evaluations (both financial and life safety) based on a generalized understanding of likely vulnerability and hazard characteristics. The model provided a quantitative estimate of cumulative losses over a 50-year period, including losses of life based on FEMA evaluation criteria. Conceptual mitigation options and loss estimates were developed to provide a range of risk management solutions that were feasible from a cost-benefit standpoint. A decision tree approach was adopted to focus on fundamental risk management questions rather than on specific outcomes since the committee did not have a consensus view on the preferred solution. These questions included: 1. Over what time period can risks be tolerated before implementation of decisions? 2. Whose responsibility is it to identify a workable risk management solution? 3. Who will own the project? The decision tree

  2. Risk Assessment Terminology: Risk Communication Part 2.

    PubMed

    Liuzzo, Gaetano; Bentley, Stefano; Giacometti, Federica; Piva, Silvia; Serraino, Andrea

    2016-04-19

    The paper describes the terminology of risk communication in the view of food safety: different aspects of risk perception (perceived risk, media triggers, the psychometric paradigm, fright factors and cultural determinants of risk perception) are described. The risk profile elements are illustrated in the manuscript: hazard-food commodity combination(s) of concern; description of the public health problem; food production, processing, distribution and consumption; needs and questions for the risk assessors; available information and major knowledge gaps and other risk profile elements.

  3. Risk Assessment Terminology: Risk Communication Part 2

    PubMed Central

    Bentley, Stefano; Giacometti, Federica; Piva, Silvia; Serraino, Andrea

    2016-01-01

    The paper describes the terminology of risk communication in the view of food safety: different aspects of risk perception (perceived risk, media triggers, the psychometric paradigm, fright factors and cultural determinants of risk perception) are described. The risk profile elements are illustrated in the manuscript: hazard-food commodity combination(s) of concern; description of the public health problem; food production, processing, distribution and consumption; needs and questions for the risk assessors; available information and major knowledge gaps and other risk profile elements. PMID:27800443

  4. Probabilistic risk assessment of HTGRs

    SciTech Connect

    Fleming, K.N.; Houghton, W.J.; Hannaman, G.W.; Joksimovic, V.

    1980-08-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment methods have been applied to gas-cooled reactors for more than a decade and to HTGRs for more than six years in the programs sponsored by the US Department of Energy. Significant advancements to the development of PRA methodology in these programs are summarized as are the specific applications of the methods to HTGRs. Emphasis here is on PRA as a tool for evaluating HTGR design options. Current work and future directions are also discussed.

  5. Applications of Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Burns, K.J.; Chapman, J.R.; Follen, S.M.; O'Regan, P.J. )

    1991-05-01

    This report provides a summary of potential and actual applications of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) technology and insights. Individual applications are derived from the experiences of a number of US nuclear utilities. This report identifies numerous applications of PRA techniques beyond those typically associated with PRAs. In addition, believing that the future use of PRA techniques should not be limited to those of the past, areas of plant operations, maintenance, and financial resource allocation are discussed. 9 refs., 3 tabs.

  6. Survey of mental health nurses' attitudes towards risk assessment, risk assessment tools and positive risk.

    PubMed

    Downes, C; Gill, A; Doyle, L; Morrissey, J; Higgins, A

    2016-04-01

    WHAT IS KNOWN ON THE SUBJECT?: Risk assessment and safety planning are a core aspect of the role of the mental health nurse. Conflicting views exist on the value of risk assessment tools. Few studies have examined mental health nurses' attitudes towards risk, including use of tools and the role of positive risk in recovery. WHAT THE PAPER ADDS TO EXISTING KNOWLEDGE?: Mental health nurses view risk assessment as a core dimension of their role and not merely an exercise to fulfil organizational clinical safety and governance obligations. The majority of nurses hold positive attitudes towards therapeutic or positive risk, and consider creative risk taking as vital to people's recovery. The majority of nurses believe that risk assessment tools facilitate professional decision making, however, some are concerned that tools may negatively impact upon therapeutic relationships. WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE?: Ongoing education on the use of risk assessment tools is required to minimize views that their use is incompatible with therapeutic engagement, and to enable nurses to develop confidence to engage with positive risk and to allow service users make decisions and take responsibility. Introduction Risk assessment and safety planning are considered core components of the role of the mental health nurse; however, little is known about nurses' attitudes towards risk assessment, use of tools to assess risk or therapeutic risk taking. Aim This study aimed to explore mental health nurses' attitudes towards completing risk assessments, use of tools as an aid, and therapeutic or positive risk. Method An anonymous survey which included 13 attitudinal statements, rated on a five-point Likert scale, was completed by 381 mental health nurses working in adult services in Ireland. Findings Findings indicate strong support for the practice of risk assessment in mental health practice. The vast majority of nurses believe that risk assessment tools facilitate professional

  7. Risk assessment for pulmonary resection.

    PubMed

    Brunelli, Alessandro

    2010-01-01

    Risk assessment for pulmonary resection must include a preliminary cardiac evaluation. Patients deemed at prohibitive cardiac risk should be evaluated and treated as per American Heart Association/American Society of Cardiology guidelines. Those with low cardiac risk or with optimized treatment can proceed with pulmonary assessment. A systematic measurement of lung carbon monoxide diffusing capacity is recommended. In addition, predicted postoperative forced expiratory volume in 1 second should not be used alone for patient selection because it is not an accurate predictor of complications, particularly in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. The use of exercise testing should be emphasized. Low-technology tests, such as stair climbing, can be used whenever a formal cardiopulmonary exercise test is not readily available. However, in case of suboptimal performance (ie, <22 m in the stair-climbing test) patients should be referred to cardiopulmonary exercise testing with measurement of Vo(2max) for a better definition of their aerobic reserve. A Vo(2max) less than 10 mL/kg/min (or <35% of predicted) indicates a high risk for major lung resection.

  8. Risk Assessment of Shellfish Toxins

    PubMed Central

    Munday, Rex; Reeve, John

    2013-01-01

    Complex secondary metabolites, some of which are highly toxic to mammals, are produced by many marine organisms. Some of these organisms are important food sources for marine animals and, when ingested, the toxins that they produce may be absorbed and stored in the tissues of the predators, which then become toxic to animals higher up the food chain. This is a particular problem with shellfish, and many cases of poisoning are reported in shellfish consumers each year. At present, there is no practicable means of preventing uptake of the toxins by shellfish or of removing them after harvesting. Assessment of the risk posed by such toxins is therefore required in order to determine levels that are unlikely to cause adverse effects in humans and to permit the establishment of regulatory limits in shellfish for human consumption. In the present review, the basic principles of risk assessment are described, and the progress made toward robust risk assessment of seafood toxins is discussed. While good progress has been made, it is clear that further toxicological studies are required before this goal is fully achieved. PMID:24226039

  9. Assessing and Managing Risk with Suicidal Individuals

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Linehan, Marsh M.; Comtois, Katherine A.; Ward-Ciesielski, Erin F.

    2012-01-01

    The University of Washington Risk Assessment Protocol (UWRAP) and Risk Assessment and Management Protocol (UWRAMP) have been used in numerous clinical trials treating high-risk suicidal individuals over several years. These protocols structure assessors and treatment providers to provide a thorough suicide risk assessment, review standards of care…

  10. Assessing and Managing Risk with Suicidal Individuals

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Linehan, Marsh M.; Comtois, Katherine A.; Ward-Ciesielski, Erin F.

    2012-01-01

    The University of Washington Risk Assessment Protocol (UWRAP) and Risk Assessment and Management Protocol (UWRAMP) have been used in numerous clinical trials treating high-risk suicidal individuals over several years. These protocols structure assessors and treatment providers to provide a thorough suicide risk assessment, review standards of care…

  11. Reevaluating Interrater Reliability in Offender Risk Assessment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    van der Knaap, Leontien M.; Leenarts, Laura E. W.; Born, Marise Ph.; Oosterveld, Paul

    2012-01-01

    Offender risk and needs assessment, one of the pillars of the risk-need-responsivity model of offender rehabilitation, usually depends on raters assessing offender risk and needs. The few available studies of interrater reliability in offender risk assessment are, however, limited in the generalizability of their results. The present study…

  12. Reevaluating Interrater Reliability in Offender Risk Assessment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    van der Knaap, Leontien M.; Leenarts, Laura E. W.; Born, Marise Ph.; Oosterveld, Paul

    2012-01-01

    Offender risk and needs assessment, one of the pillars of the risk-need-responsivity model of offender rehabilitation, usually depends on raters assessing offender risk and needs. The few available studies of interrater reliability in offender risk assessment are, however, limited in the generalizability of their results. The present study…

  13. Stereoselective biodegradation of amphetamine and methamphetamine in river microcosms.

    PubMed

    Bagnall, John; Malia, Louis; Lubben, Anneke; Kasprzyk-Hordern, Barbara

    2013-10-01

    Here presented for the first time is the enantioselective biodegradation of amphetamine and methamphetamine in river microcosm bioreactors. The aim of this investigation was to test the hypothesis that mechanisms governing the fate of amphetamine and methamphetamine in the environment are mostly stereoselective and biological in nature. Several bioreactors were studied over the duration of 15 days (i) in both biotic and abiotic conditions, (ii) in the dark or exposed to light and (iii) in the presence or absence of suspended particulate matter. Bioreactor samples were analysed using SPE-chiral-LC-(QTOF)MS methodology. This investigation has elucidated the fundamental mechanism for degradation of amphetamine and methamphetamine as being predominantly biological in origin. Furthermore, stereoselectivity and changes in enantiomeric fraction (EF) were only observed under biotic conditions. Neither amphetamine nor methamphetamine appeared to demonstrate adsorption to suspended particulate matter. Our experiments also demonstrated that amphetamine and methamphetamine were photo-stable. Illicit drugs are present in the environment at low concentrations but due to their pseudo-persistence and non-racemic behaviour, with two enantiomers revealing significantly different potency (and potentially different toxicity towards aquatic organisms) the risk posed by illicit drugs in the environment should not be under- or over-estimated. The above results demonstrate the need for re-evaluation of the procedures utilised in environmental risk assessment, which currently do not recognise the importance of the phenomenon of chirality in pharmacologically active compounds. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. In-situ subaqueous capping of mercury-contaminated sediments in a fresh-water aquatic system, Part I-Bench-scale microcosm study to assess methylmercury production.

    PubMed

    Randall, Paul M; Fimmen, Ryan; Lal, Vivek; Darlington, Ramona

    2013-08-01

    Bench-scale microcosm experiments were designed to provide a better understanding of the potential for Hg methylation in sediments from an aquatic environment. Experiments were conducted to examine the function of sulfate concentration, lactate concentration, the presence/absence of an aqueous inorganic Hg spike, and the presence/absence of inoculums of Desulfovibrio desulfuricans, a strain of sulfate-reducing bacteria (SRB) commonly found in the natural sediments of aquatic environments. Incubations were analyzed for both the rate and extent of (methylmercury) MeHg production. Methylation rates were estimated by analyzing MeHg and Hg after 2, 7, 14, 28, and 42 days. The production of metabolic byproducts, including dissolved gases as a proxy for metabolic utilization of carbon substrate, was also monitored. In all treatments amended with lactate, sulfate, Hg, and SRB, MeHg was produced (37ng/g-sediment dry weight) after only 48h of incubation and reached a maximum sediment concentration of 127ng/g-sediment dry weight after the 42 day incubation period. Aqueous phase production of MeHg was observed to be 10ng/L after 2 day, reaching a maximum observed concentration of 32.8ng/L after 14 days, and declining to 10.8ng/L at the end of the incubation period (42 day). The results of this study further demonstrates that, in the presence of an organic carbon substrate, sulfate, and the appropriate consortia of microorganisms, sedimentary Hg will be transformed into MeHg through bacterial metabolism. Further, this study provided the basis for evaluation of an in-situ subaqueous capping strategy that may limit (or potentially enhance) MeHg production.

  15. Microbial community analysis of switchgrass planted and unplanted soil microcosms displaying PCB dechlorination.

    PubMed

    Liang, Yi; Meggo, Richard; Hu, Dingfei; Schnoor, Jerald L; Mattes, Timothy E

    2015-08-01

    Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) pose potential risks to human and environmental health because they are carcinogenic, persistent, and bioaccumulative. In this study, we investigated bacterial communities in soil microcosms spiked with PCB 52, 77, and 153. Switchgrass (Panicum virgatum) was employed to improve overall PCB removal, and redox cycling (i.e., sequential periods of flooding followed by periods of no flooding) was performed in an effort to promote PCB dechlorination. Lesser chlorinated PCB transformation products were detected in all microcosms, indicating the occurrence of PCB dechlorination. Terminal restriction fragment length polymorphism (T-RFLP) and clone library analysis showed that PCB spiking, switchgrass planting, and redox cycling affected the microbial community structure. Putative organohalide-respiring Chloroflexi populations, which were not found in unflooded microcosms, were enriched after 2 weeks of flooding in the redox-cycled microcosms. Sequences classified as Geobacter sp. were detected in all microcosms and were most abundant in the switchgrass-planted microcosm spiked with PCB congeners. The presence of possible organohalide-respiring bacteria in these soil microcosms suggests that they play a role in PCB dechlorination therein.

  16. Microbial community analysis of switchgrass planted and unplanted soil microcosms displaying PCB dechlorination

    PubMed Central

    Liang, Yi; Meggo, Richard; Hu, Dingfei; Schnoor, Jerald L.; Mattes, Timothy E.

    2015-01-01

    Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) pose potential risks to human and environmental health because they are carcinogenic, persistent and bioaccumulative. In this study we investigated bacterial communities in soil microcosms spiked with PCB 52, 77 and 153. Switchgrass (Panicum virgatum) was employed to improve overall PCB removal and redox cycling (i.e. sequential periods of flooding followed by periods of no flooding) was performed in an effort to promote PCB dechlorination. Lesser chlorinated PCB transformation products were detected in all microcosms, indicating the occurrence of PCB dechlorination. Terminal restriction fragment length polymorphism (T-RFLP) and clone library analysis showed that PCB spiking, switchgrass planting and redox cycling affected the microbial community structure. Putative organohalide-respiring Chloroflexi populations, which were not found in unflooded microcosms, were enriched after two weeks of flooding in the redox-cycled microcosms. Sequences classified as Geobacter sp. were detected in all microcosms, and were most abundant in the switchgrass-planted microcosm spiked with PCB congeners. The presence of possible organohalide-respiring bacteria in these soil microcosms suggests they play a role in PCB dechlorination therein. PMID:25820643

  17. [Risk assessment in pain therapy].

    PubMed

    Schoeffel, D; Casser, H R; Bach, M; Kress, H G; Likar, R; Locher, H; Steinleitner, W; Strohmeier, M; Brunner, H; Treede, R D; Zieglgänsberger, W; Sandkühler, J

    2008-10-01

    Analgesic therapy is not without risk. However, the risk of most analgesic interventions is minor compared to the risk of the inadequate treatment of pain and insufficient treatment may lead to chronic pain.A correct diagnosis should be the basis of any specific treatment of pain disorders. Only a diagnosis which implicates a multi-disciplinary assessment and which considers both the pathoanatomical, functional and biopsychosocial dysfunctions can lead to an adequate therapeutic intervention. Furthermore, therapeutic planning should include the personal needs of the patient and should have realistic aims.Pharmacological treatment is guided by the WHO pain ladder. The risks of the relevant substance groups must be considered. NSAIDs (non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs) which are included in all steps of the WHO pain ladder carry specific risks for the gastrointestinal, cardiovascular and renal systems and are contraindicated in many patients in need of analgesic therapy, e.g. in many elderly patients. Opioids which are recommended at steps 2 and 3 of the WHO pain ladder have less organ toxicity but they are still used reluctantly. Coanalgetics, especially antidepressants bear specific risks and the discussion on suicide rates under antidepressant medication is ongoing.Invasive methods such as the intrathecal application of analgesics are valuable procedures if the indication is correct and the treating physician has sufficient experience. Pain therapy is essential and the risks of the procedures are manageable. Considering the current knowledge on the mechanisms of pain sensitisation, the lack of adequate pain control can lead to chronic pain with severe consequences for the patient.

  18. Attenuation of TNT in seawater microcosms.

    PubMed

    Harrison, I; Vane, C H

    2010-01-01

    The ability of two differing marine sediments (one clayey, the other sandy) to attenuate the explosive 2,4,6-trinitrotoluene (TNT), dissolved in intertidal seawater from the eastern English coast of the North Sea, was examined using aerobic microcosms. Analysis of the seawater from the microcosms revealed an initial sharp decline in TNT concentration with clayey sediment in both sterilized (to prevent microbial activity) and unsterilized microcosms. This effect did not occur to such a marked extent in similar sterile and non-sterile sandy sediment microcosms and was attributed mainly to sorption of TNT to the fine clay particles of the clayey sediment. As time progressed, the attenuation of TNT in microcosms containing either type of sediment was found to be less in those that had been sterilized compared with those where microbial action proceeded unhindered. Feeding the microcosms, (i.e. supplying extra carbon sources for the microbial communities), appeared to have a small, but perceptible, enhancing effect upon TNT dissipation. The attenuation of TNT was also measured in large microcosms containing 2.5 L of seawater and no sediment. Analysis of the seawater revealed a gradual decline in TNT concentration in non-sterile and fed microcosms compared to their sterile counterpart. Overall, this laboratory study showed that the attenuation of TNT is slow (half-life in seawater ca.1900 days; half-life sand sediment <700 days; half life in clay sediment 130 days) under conditions commonly encountered in coastal waters of the North Sea.

  19. Effects of sorption, sulphate reduction, and Phragmites australis on the removal of heavy metals in subsurface flow constructed wetland microcosms.

    PubMed

    Lesage, E; Rousseau, D P L; Van de Moortel, A; Tack, F M G; De Pauw, N; Verloo, M G

    2007-01-01

    The removal of Co, Ni, Cu and Zn from synthetic industrial wastewater was studied in subsurface flow constructed wetland microcosms filled with gravel or a gravel/straw mixture. Half of the microcosms were planted with Phragmites australis and half were left unplanted. All microcosms received low-strength wastewater (1 mg L(-1) of Co, Ni, and Zn, 0.5 mg L(-1) Cu, 2,000mg L(-1) SO4) during seven 14-day incubation batches. The pore water was regularly monitored at two depths for heavy metals, sulphate, organic carbon and redox potential. Sorption properties of gravel and straw were assessed in a separate experiment. A second series of seven incubation batches with high-strength wastewater (10 mg L(-1) of each metal, 2,000 mg L(-1) SO4) was then applied to saturate the substrate. Glucose was added to the gravel microcosms together with the high-strength wastewater. Sorption processes were responsible for metal removal during start-up, with the highest removal efficiencies in the gravel microcosms. The lower initial efficiencies in the gravel/straw microcosms were presumably caused by the decomposition of straw. However, after establishment of anaerobic conditions (Eh approximately -200 mV), precipitation as metal sulphides provided an additional removal pathway in the gravel/straw microcosms. The addition of glucose to gravel microcosms enhanced sulphate reduction and metal removal, although Phragmites australis negatively affected these processes in the top-layer of all microcosms.

  20. Risk assessment for neurobehavioral toxicity

    SciTech Connect

    McMillan, D.E.

    1987-12-01

    A study of the National Academy of Sciences/National Research Council (NAS/NRC) found neurobehavioral toxicity to be one of the areas where almost no data are available for the assessment of toxicity. Using the NAS/NRC report and a data base from the American Conference of Government Industrial Hygienists (ACGIH), an estimate of the number of neurobehavioral toxins in commercial chemicals can be made. Although the assumption made in making such a calculation may be invalid, the exercise suggests that the number of neurobehavioral toxins may be quite large. There does seem to be general agreement as to what type of neurobehavioral test procedures are appropriate for regulatory purposes. Select committees have consistently recommended the use of test batteries that include schedule-controlled behavior, motor activity, and neuropathological examination following in vivo perfusion, for regulatory purposes. Alkyltin data developed from such a battery were applied to the risk assessment model employed by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in their calculations of acceptable daily intake. Using this test battery and the EPA risk assessment model, the acceptable daily intake calculated is of the same order of magnitude as the total limit values established by the ACGIH. A number of special issues in neurobehavioral toxicity also are discussed, including the definition of adverse neurobehavioral toxic effect, species extrapolation, correlation of behavior and neuropathology, alternative methods, and quality of life issues.

  1. Can Public Health Risk Assessment Using Risk Matrices Be Misleading?

    PubMed

    Vatanpour, Shabnam; Hrudey, Steve E; Dinu, Irina

    2015-08-14

    The risk assessment matrix is a widely accepted, semi-quantitative tool for assessing risks, and setting priorities in risk management. Although the method can be useful to promote discussion to distinguish high risks from low risks, a published critique described a problem when the frequency and severity of risks are negatively correlated. A theoretical analysis showed that risk predictions could be misleading. We evaluated a practical public health example because it provided experiential risk data that allowed us to assess the practical implications of the published concern that risk matrices would make predictions that are worse than random. We explored this predicted problem by constructing a risk assessment matrix using a public health risk scenario-Tainted blood transfusion infection risk-That provides negative correlation between harm frequency and severity. We estimated the risk from the experiential data and compared these estimates with those provided by the risk assessment matrix. Although we validated the theoretical concern, for these authentic experiential data, the practical scope of the problem was limited. The risk matrix has been widely used in risk assessment. This method should not be abandoned wholesale, but users must address the source of the problem, apply the risk matrix with a full understanding of this problem and use matrix predictions to inform, but not drive decision-making.

  2. Creosote toxicity to photosynthesis and plant growth in aquatic microcosms.

    PubMed

    Marwood, Christopher A; Bestari, K T Jim; Gensemer, Robert W; Solomon, Keith R; Greenberg, Bruce M

    2003-05-01

    To assess photosynthesis as a bioindicator of toxicity from polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), the response of chlorophyll-a fluorescence to creosote exposure was compared with effects on population-level plant growth. Large, outdoor, freshwater microcosms containing Eurasian watermilfoil (Myriophyllum spicatum) received either a single application or multiple applications of liquid creosote at nominal concentrations from 0.109 to 32.7 mg L(-1). For several weeks following treatment, photosynthetic electron transport was measured using pulse amplitude-modulated chlorophyll-a fluorescence. The maximum efficiency of photosystem II electron transport (Fv/Fm) and the quantum yield of photochemistry (deltaF/F'm) were diminished in plants shortly after the addition of creosote. In microcosms that received a single treatment of creosote only, the 50% effective concentrations (EC50s), expressed as the aqueous concentration of 15 of the most abundant PAHs, were 0.28 mg L(-1) for Fv/Fm and 0.30 mg L(-1) for deltaF/F'm. Chlorophyll-a fluorescence was diminished to a greater extent in microcosms that received multiple treatments of creosote, with EC50s of 0.13 mg L(-1) for Fv/Fm and 0.10 mg L(-1) for deltaF/F'm. Plant biomass accumulation was inhibited in a concentration-dependent manner in all microcosms treated with creosote, but this inhibition occurred to a greater degree in microcosms treated with multiple creosote applications. The response of chlorophyll-a fluorescence, measured only 8 d after creosote treatment, was similar to plant growth over the entire growing season, indicating that this technique can be used to estimate potential effects of contaminants before detrimental impacts on populations.

  3. Can Public Health Risk Assessment Using Risk Matrices Be Misleading?

    PubMed Central

    Vatanpour, Shabnam; Hrudey, Steve E.; Dinu, Irina

    2015-01-01

    The risk assessment matrix is a widely accepted, semi-quantitative tool for assessing risks, and setting priorities in risk management. Although the method can be useful to promote discussion to distinguish high risks from low risks, a published critique described a problem when the frequency and severity of risks are negatively correlated. A theoretical analysis showed that risk predictions could be misleading. We evaluated a practical public health example because it provided experiential risk data that allowed us to assess the practical implications of the published concern that risk matrices would make predictions that are worse than random. We explored this predicted problem by constructing a risk assessment matrix using a public health risk scenario—Tainted blood transfusion infection risk—That provides negative correlation between harm frequency and severity. We estimated the risk from the experiential data and compared these estimates with those provided by the risk assessment matrix. Although we validated the theoretical concern, for these authentic experiential data, the practical scope of the problem was limited. The risk matrix has been widely used in risk assessment. This method should not be abandoned wholesale, but users must address the source of the problem, apply the risk matrix with a full understanding of this problem and use matrix predictions to inform, but not drive decision-making. PMID:26287224

  4. Risk Assessment-- A Science in Controversy.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ravetz, J. R.

    1982-01-01

    Discusses principle themes/issues of risk assessment, using examples from the "nuclear debate." Indicates that while an objective scientific core to decisions on risks exists, this is conditioned in its interpretation by inexactness, uncertainty, and value-commitments. Considers risk assessment elements, risk quantification in real…

  5. Risk Assessment-- A Science in Controversy.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ravetz, J. R.

    1982-01-01

    Discusses principle themes/issues of risk assessment, using examples from the "nuclear debate." Indicates that while an objective scientific core to decisions on risks exists, this is conditioned in its interpretation by inexactness, uncertainty, and value-commitments. Considers risk assessment elements, risk quantification in real…

  6. Risk Assessment Terminology: Risk Communication Part 1

    PubMed Central

    Bentley, Stefano; Giacometti, Federica; Piva, Silvia; Serraino, Andrea

    2016-01-01

    The paper describes the terminology of risk communication in the view of food safety: the theory of stakeholders, the citizens’ involvement and the community interest and consultation are reported. Different aspects of risk communication (public communication, scientific uncertainty, trust, care, consensus and crisis communication) are discussed. PMID:27800435

  7. Risks, risk assessment and risk competence in toxicology

    PubMed Central

    Stahlmann, Ralf; Horvath, Aniko

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the toxic effects of xenobiotics requires sound knowledge of physiology and biochemistry. The often described lack of understanding pharmacology/toxicology is therefore primarily caused by the general absence of the necessary fundamental knowledge. Since toxic effects depend on exposure (or dosage) assessing the risks arising from toxic substances also requires quantitative reasoning. Typically public discussions nearly always neglect quantitative aspects and laypersons tend to disregard dose-effect-relationships. One of the main reasons for such disregard is the fact that exposures often occur at extremely low concentrations that can only be perceived intellectually but not by the human senses. However, thresholds in the low exposure range are often scientifically disputed. At the same time, ignorance towards known dangers is wide-spread. Thus, enhancing the risk competence of laypersons will have to be initially restricted to increasing the awareness of existing problems. PMID:26195922

  8. Persistence of naturally occurring and genetically modified Choristoneura fumiferana nucleopolyhedroviruses in outdoor aquatic microcosms.

    PubMed

    Holmes, Stephen B; Fick, William E; Kreutzweiser, David P; Ebling, Peter M; England, Laura S; Trevors, Jack T

    2008-10-01

    To assess the persistence of genetically modified and naturally occurring baculoviruses in an aquatic environment, replicate (three) outdoor, aquatic microcosms were spiked with spruce budworm viruses [Ireland strain of Choristoneura fumiferana multiple nucleopolyhedrovirus (CfMNPV) and the recombinant CfMNPVegt(-)/lacZ(+)] at a rate of 1.86 x 10(10) occlusion bodies (OBs) m(-2) of surface area. The presence of virus in water samples collected at various times after inoculation was determined by PCR amplification of baculoviral DNA extracted from OBs. Although UV radiation rapidly degrades baculoviruses under natural conditions, both viruses persisted above the level of detection (>100 OBs 450 microL(-1) of natural pond water) for at least 1 year post-inoculation, with little difference between the viruses in their patterns of persistence. The present microcosm study suggests that occlusion bodies of baculoviruses can persist in the flocculent layer of natural ponds. On disturbance, OBs could re-enter the main water column and thus be available for transport to new locations. Implications for environmental risk assessment are discussed.

  9. Tracking the Response of Burkholderia cepacia G4 5223-PR1 in Aquifer Microcosms.

    PubMed

    Winkler, J; Timmis, K N; Snyder, R A

    1995-02-01

    The introduction of bacteria into the environment for bioremediation purposes (bioaugmentation) requires analysis and monitoring of microbial population dynamics to define persistence and activity from both efficacy and risk assessment perspectives. Burkholderia cepacia G4 5223-PR1 is a Tn5 insertion mutant which constitutively expresses a toluene ortho-monooxygenase that degrades trichloroethylene (TCE). This ability of G4 5223-PR1 to degrade TCE without aromatic induction may be useful for bioremediation of TCE-containing aquifers and groundwater. Thus, a simulated aquifer sediment system and groundwater microcosms were used to monitor the survival of G4 5223-PR1. The fate of G4 5223-PR1 in sediment was monitored by indirect immunofluorescence microscopy, a colony blot assay, and growth on selective medium. G4 5223-PR1 was detected immunologically by using a highly specific monoclonal antibody which reacted against the O-specific polysaccharide chain of the lipopolysaccharides of this organism. G4 5223-PR1 survived well in sterilized groundwater, although in nonsterile groundwater microcosms rapid decreases in the G4 5223-PR1 cell population were observed. Ten days after inoculation no G4 5223-PR1 cells could be detected by selective plating or immunofluorescence. G4 5223-PR1 survival was greater in a nonsterile aquifer sediment microcosm, although after 22 days of elution the number of G4 5223-PR1 cells was low. Our results demonstrate the utility of monoclonal antibody tracking methods and the importance of biotic interactions in determining the persistence of introduced microorganisms.

  10. Dissipation of double-stranded RNA in aquatic microcosms.

    PubMed

    Albright, Vurtice C; Wong, Colin R; Hellmich, Richard L; Coats, Joel R

    2017-05-01

    Silencing genes of a pest with double-stranded RNA (dsRNA) is a promising new pest management technology. As part of the environmental risk assessment for dsRNA-based products, the environmental fate and the potential for adverse effects to on-target organisms should be characterized. In the present study, a nonbioactive dsRNA was spiked into the water column of a water and sediment microcosm to mimic drift from a spray application run off of unbound dsRNA or transport of plant tissues. Dissipation of dsRNA in the water column and partitioning into sediment was determined. The dsRNA rapidly dissipated in the water column and was below the limit of detection after 96 h. The levels detected in the sediment were not significant and may indicate rapid degradation in the water column prior to partitioning to sediment. Environ Toxicol Chem 2017;36:1249-1253. © 2016 SETAC. © 2016 SETAC.

  11. Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components.

    PubMed

    Murray, Cathryn Clarke; Mach, Megan E; Martone, Rebecca G; Singh, Gerald G; O, Miriam; Chan, Kai M A

    2016-01-01

    The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such "indirect risks" can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i) the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii) risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their "at-risk status" designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but-by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here-they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within.

  12. Decay rates of faecal indicator bacteria from sewage and ovine faeces in brackish and freshwater microcosms with contrasting suspended particulate matter concentrations.

    PubMed

    Perkins, Tracy L; Perrow, Karen; Rajko-Nenow, Paulina; Jago, Colin F; Jones, Davey L; Malham, Shelagh K; McDonald, James E

    2016-12-01

    for catchment-based risk assessments and source apportionment of FIB pollution in aquatic environments.

  13. Bioaccumulation and toxicity of copper in outdoor freshwater microcosms.

    PubMed

    Hoang, Tham C; Pryor, Rachel L; Rand, Gary M; Frakes, Robert A

    2011-05-01

    . Growth rate (k) of the snails increased in order of shell height (0.459), shell length (0.550), and shell weight (0.598). There was no reproduction in the snails in any treatments including the reference during the exposure phase. However, Cu did not affect reproduction of fish during this period. Copper concentrations in periphyton from Equus, SRB, and AGLR microcosms ranged from 2 to 62, 31 to 371, and 13 to 478 mg/kg, respectively. Copper concentrations in fish at the beginning, days 30 and 150 of the study ranged from 3.19 to 7.53 mg/kg and were not significantly different from the different treatments. Average Cu concentrations in the soft tissue of dead snails from SRB and AGLR microcosms were 4602 mg/kg dw (ranged from 2913 to 8370 mg/kg dw) and 2824 mg/kg dw (ranged from 2118 to 3600 mg/kg dw), respectively. The Cu concentrations in the soft tissue of dead snails found in this study were higher than the tissue Cu concentrations in live aquatic organisms reported in the literature. These high Cu concentrations in edible apple snail soft tissue might pose a risk to Florida apple snail predators, including the snail kite. The post-exposure phase, with snails exposed to only water (i.e., no soils) showed depuration of copper from apple snails and reproduction in all treatments. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Getting fire risk assessment right.

    PubMed

    Charters, David

    2012-06-01

    The NHS has one of the world's largest and most varied estates, which at any time accommodates many of the most dependent people in society. With around 6,000 fires occurring in NHS premises each year, its duty of care--and that of other healthcare providers--demands very close attention to fire safety. Here Dr David Charters BSc, PhD, CEng, FIFireE, MIMechE, MSFPE, director of Fire Engineering at BRE Global, an independent third party approvals body offering certification of fire, security, and sustainability products and services, examines the critical role of fire risk assessment, and explains why the process should provide the 'foundation' for effective fire safety measures.

  15. Risk assessment of silver nanoparticles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shipelin, V. A.; Gmoshinski, I. V.; Khotimchenko, S. A.

    2015-11-01

    Nanoparticles of metallic silver (Ag) are among the most widely used products of nanotechnology. Nanosized colloidal silver (NCS) is presented in many kinds of production as solutions of particles with diameter less than 100 nm. NCS is used in a variety of fields, including food supplements, medicines, cosmetics, packaging materials, disinfectants, water filters, and many others. Problems of toxicity and related safety of NCS for humans and environmental systems are recently overestimated basing on data of numerous toxicological studies in vitro and in vivo. The article discusses the results of current studies in recent years and the data of author's own experiments on studying the safety of NCS, that allows to move on to risk assessment of this nanomaterial presented in consumer products and environmental samples.

  16. Assessing risks to ecosystem quality

    SciTech Connect

    Barnthouse, L.W.

    1995-12-31

    Ecosystems are not organisms. Because ecosystems do not reproduce, grow old or sick, and die, the term ecosystem health is somewhat misleading and perhaps should not be used. A more useful concept is ``ecosystem quality,`` which denotes a set of desirable ecosystem characteristics defined in terms of species composition, productivity, size/condition of specific populations, or other measurable properties. The desired quality of an ecosystem may be pristine, as in a nature preserve, or highly altered by man, as in a managed forest or navigational waterway. ``Sustainable development`` implies that human activities that influence ecosystem quality should be managed so that high-quality ecosystems are maintained for future generations. In sustainability-based environmental management, the focus is on maintaining or improving ecosystem quality, not on restricting discharges or requiring particular waste treatment technologies. This approach requires management of chemical impacts to be integrated with management of other sources of stress such as erosion, eutrophication, and direct human exploitation. Environmental scientists must (1) work with decision makers and the public to define ecosystem quality goals, (2) develop corresponding measures of ecosystem quality, (3) diagnose causes for departures from desired states, and (4) recommend appropriate restoration actions, if necessary. Environmental toxicology and chemical risk assessment are necessary for implementing the above framework, but they are clearly not sufficient. This paper reviews the state-of-the science relevant to sustaining the quality of aquatic ecosystems. Using the specific example of a reservoir in eastern Tennessee, the paper attempts to define roles for ecotoxicology and risk assessment in each step of the management process.

  17. Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components

    PubMed Central

    Mach, Megan E.; Martone, Rebecca G.; Singh, Gerald G.; O, Miriam; Chan, Kai M. A.

    2016-01-01

    The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such “indirect risks” can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i) the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii) risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their “at-risk status” designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but—by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here—they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within. PMID:27632287

  18. Fuzzy based risk register for construction project risk assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuchta, Dorota; Ptaszyńska, Ewa

    2017-07-01

    The paper contains fuzzy based risk register used to identify risks which appear in construction projects and to assess their attributes. Risk is considered here as a possible event with negative consequences for the project [4]. We use different risk attributes in the proposed risk register. Values of risk attributes are generated by using fuzzy numbers. Specific risk attributes have different importance for project managers of construction projects. To compare specific risk attributes we use methods of fuzzy numbers ranking. The main strengths of the proposed concept in managing construction projects are also presented in the paper.

  19. Advances in the assessment of suicide risk.

    PubMed

    Bryan, Craig J; Rudd, M David

    2006-02-01

    This article reviews and integrates empirically grounded advances in the assessment of suicidality. The practices discussed are consistent with existing standards of care, practice guidelines, and applicable research. The authors differentiate between risk assessment and prediction and then emphasize the important role of time in risk assessment. We present and illustrate a continuum of suicidality for risk assessment and offer practical recommendations for clinical decision making and treatment. (c) 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  20. Ecological risk assessment of contaminated soils through direct toxicity assessment.

    PubMed

    Fernández, María Dolores; Cagigal, Ekain; Vega, María Milagrosa; Urzelai, Arantzazu; Babín, Mar; Pro, Javier; Tarazona, José Vicente

    2005-10-01

    A microcosm (MS-3) with a multispecies soil system is introduced as an experimental tool for direct toxicity assessment of contaminated soils. The capacity of MS-3 to determine soil ecotoxicity potential was evaluated using samples from three sites contaminated with organic and/or inorganic compounds. Soils were toxic to soil-dwelling organisms (earthworm, plants, and microorganisms) and to aquatic organisms (algae and RTG-2 cell fish). As expected, responses varied substantially among different soils and organisms. The application of this evaluation system provided complementary information to the chemical characterization. For soils containing metals the toxic response was lower than predicted from total metal concentrations. For hydrocarbons, the toxicity response agreed with estimated values. The induction of EROD activity suggested the presence of dioxin-like compounds, which had not been addressed in the chemical characterization. The proposed multispecies system affords the measurement of 11 endpoints covering three soil and three aquatic taxonomic groups, reproduces soil conditions and gradients, and appears as an excellent complementary tool to chemical analysis for characterization of contaminated sites.

  1. Radiological safety and risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Hunter, P.H.; Barg, D.C.; Baird, R.D.; Card, D.H.; de Souza, F.; Elder, J.; Felthauser, K.; Jensen, C.; Winkler, V.

    1982-02-01

    A brief radiological safety and risk assessment of a nuclear power generation center with an adjacent on-site waste disposal facility at a specific site in the State of Utah is presented. The assessment was conducted to assist in determining the feasibility and practicality of developing a nuclear energy center (NEC) in Utah consisting of nine 1250 MWe nuclear pressurized water reactor (PWR) electrical generating units arranged in 3 clusters of 3 units each known as triads. The site selected for this conceptual study is in the Horse Bench area about 15 miles directly south of the town of Green River, Utah. The radiological issues included direct radiation exposures to on-site workers and the off-site population, release of radioactive material, and effects of these releases for both normal operations and accidental occurrences. The basic finding of this study is that the concept of an NEC in the Green River area, specifically at the Horse Bench site, is radiologically feasible.

  2. Bilastine: an environmental risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Lucero, María Luisa; Peither, Armin; Ledo, Francisco

    2015-10-01

    Bilastine is a new oral selective, non-sedating histamine H1 antagonist for the symptomatic treatment of allergic rhinoconjunctivitis and urticaria. The European Medicines Agency requires an Environmental Risk Assessment (ERA) for all novel medicines for human use. To calculate the bilastine predicted environmental concentration in surface water (PECsw; phase I ERA), and to determine the effects of bilastine on aquatic systems (phase II [tier A]). Bilastine PECsw was calculated using the maximum daily dosage (20 mg), assuming that all administered bilastine was released into the aquatic environment. A persistence, bioaccumulation and toxicity assessment was conducted using the log Kow from the molecular structure. In phase II (tier A), a ready biodegradability test was performed, and bilastine's potential toxicity to various aquatic and sediment-dwelling micro-organisms was evaluated. Bilastine PECSW was calculated as 0.1 μg L(-1), and the compound was not readily biodegradable. Bilastine had no significant effects on Chironomus riparius midges, or on the respiration rate of activated sludge. For green algae, the bilastine no observed effect concentration (NOEC) was 22 mg L(-1); bilastine had no effect on zebra fish development, or on the reproduction rate of daphnids. Bilastine NOEC values against zebra fish, algae, daphnids, and aerobic organisms in activated sludge were at least 130 000-fold greater than the calculated PECSW value. No environmental concerns exist from bilastine use in patients with allergic rhinoconjunctivitis or urticaria.

  3. Environmental risk assessment of paroxetine.

    PubMed

    Cunningham, Virginia L; Constable, David J C; Hannah, Robert E

    2004-06-15

    watershed-based environmental risk assessment model, PhATE, to predict environmental concentrations (PECs). Comparison of the calculated PECs with the PNEC allows an assessment of potential environmental risk. Within the 1-99% of stream segments in the PhATE model, PEC values ranged from 0.003 to 100 ng/L. The risk assessment PEC/PNEC ratios ranged from approximately 3 x 10(-8) to approximately 3 x 10(-3), indicating a wide margin of safety, since a PEC/PNEC ratio <1 is generally considered to represent a low risk to the environment. In addition, Microtox studies carried out on PM biodegradation byproducts indicated no detectable residual toxicity. Any compounds in the environment as a result of the biodegradation of PM should be innocuous polar byproducts that should not exert any toxic effects.

  4. Risk assessment of metal vapor arcing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hill, Monika C. (Inventor); Leidecker, Henning W. (Inventor)

    2009-01-01

    A method for assessing metal vapor arcing risk for a component is provided. The method comprises acquiring a current variable value associated with an operation of the component; comparing the current variable value with a threshold value for the variable; evaluating compared variable data to determine the metal vapor arcing risk in the component; and generating a risk assessment status for the component.

  5. Effects of a mixture of tetracyclines to Lemna gibba and Myriophyllum sibiricum evaluated in aquatic microcosms.

    PubMed

    Brain, Richard A; Wilson, Christian J; Johnson, David J; Sanderson, Hans; Bestari, Ketut Jim; Hanson, Mark L; Sibley, Paul K; Solomon, Keith R

    2005-12-01

    The impact of a mixture of oxytetracycline, chlortetracycline, tetracycline and doxycycline on Myriophyllum sibiricum and Lemna gibba was investigated using fifteen 12,000-L microcosms (k=5, n=3). Significant concentration-response relationships were only found for M. sibiricum, where dry mass was 69, 47, 30, and 7% of controls at respective treatment concentrations of 0.080, 0.218, 0.668, and 2.289 micromol/L. Somatic endpoints were strongly and negatively correlated with percent light transmission, except plant length, which was positively correlated. Treated microcosms experienced a reduction in the percent of surface irradiance penetrating the water column as high as 99.8% at a depth of 70 cm, relative to controls. Position relative to the water column was likely responsible for the differential effects observed between floating (L. gibba) and submerged (M. sibiricum) species of macrophytes. A hazard quotient assessment of the lowest EC10 value indicated significant risk, exceeding the critical HQ value, but not the lowest EC25 value.

  6. Morphological Alteration and Survival of Burkholderia pseudomallei in Soil Microcosms.

    PubMed

    Kamjumphol, Watcharaporn; Chareonsudjai, Pisit; Taweechaisupapong, Suwimol; Chareonsudjai, Sorujsiri

    2015-11-01

    The resilience of Burkholderia pseudomallei, the causative agent of melioidosis, was evaluated in control soil microcosms and in soil microcosms containing NaCl or FeSO4 at 30°C. Iron (Fe(II)) promoted the growth of B. pseudomallei during the 30-day observation, contrary to the presence of 1.5% and 3% NaCl. Scanning electron micrographs of B. pseudomallei in soil revealed their morphological alteration from rod to coccoid and the formation of microcolonies. The smallest B. pseudomallei cells were found in soil with 100 μM FeSO4 compared with in the control soil or soil with 0.6% NaCl (P < 0.05). The colony count on Ashdown's agar and bacterial viability assay using the LIVE/DEAD(®) BacLight(™) stain combined with flow cytometry showed that B. pseudomallei remained culturable and viable in the control soil microcosms for at least 120 days. In contrast, soil with 1.5% NaCl affected their culturability at day 90 and their viability at day 120. Our results suggested that a low salinity and iron may influence the survival of B. pseudomallei and its ability to change from a rod-like to coccoid form. The morphological changes of B. pseudomallei cells may be advantageous for their persistence in the environment and may increase the risk of their transmission to humans. © The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.

  7. Morphological Alteration and Survival of Burkholderia pseudomallei in Soil Microcosms

    PubMed Central

    Kamjumphol, Watcharaporn; Chareonsudjai, Pisit; Taweechaisupapong, Suwimol; Chareonsudjai, Sorujsiri

    2015-01-01

    The resilience of Burkholderia pseudomallei, the causative agent of melioidosis, was evaluated in control soil microcosms and in soil microcosms containing NaCl or FeSO4 at 30°C. Iron (Fe(II)) promoted the growth of B. pseudomallei during the 30-day observation, contrary to the presence of 1.5% and 3% NaCl. Scanning electron micrographs of B. pseudomallei in soil revealed their morphological alteration from rod to coccoid and the formation of microcolonies. The smallest B. pseudomallei cells were found in soil with 100 μM FeSO4 compared with in the control soil or soil with 0.6% NaCl (P < 0.05). The colony count on Ashdown's agar and bacterial viability assay using the LIVE/DEAD® BacLight™ stain combined with flow cytometry showed that B. pseudomallei remained culturable and viable in the control soil microcosms for at least 120 days. In contrast, soil with 1.5% NaCl affected their culturability at day 90 and their viability at day 120. Our results suggested that a low salinity and iron may influence the survival of B. pseudomallei and its ability to change from a rod-like to coccoid form. The morphological changes of B. pseudomallei cells may be advantageous for their persistence in the environment and may increase the risk of their transmission to humans. PMID:26324731

  8. Pressure sore risk assessment in palliative care.

    PubMed

    Chaplin, J

    2000-01-01

    Pressure sore prevention in palliative care is recognized as being an essential element of holistic care, with the primary goal of promoting quality of life for patient and family. Little is known about the incidence of pressure sore development and the use of pressure sore risk assessment tools in palliative care settings. The development of a risk assessment tool specifically for palliative care patients in a 41-bedded specialist palliative care unit is described. The risk assessment tool was developed as part of a tissue viability practice development initiative. The approach adopted in the validation of the Hunters Hill Marie Curie Centre pressure sore risk assessment tool was the comparative analysis of professional judgment of experienced palliative care nurses with the numerical scores achieved during the assessment of risk on 291 patients (529 risk assessment events). This comparative analysis identified the threshold for different degrees of risk for the patient group involved: low risk, medium risk, high risk and very high risk. Further work is being undertaken to evaluate the inter-rater reliability of the new tool. A number of issues are explored in this paper in relation to pressure sore prevention in palliative care: the role of risk assessment tools, the sometimes conflicting aims of trying to ensure comfort and prevent pressure sore damage, and the uncertainties faced by palliative care nurses when they are trying to maintain quality of life for the dying.

  9. INCORPORATING NONCHEMICAL STRESSORS INTO CUMMULATIVE RISK ASSESSMENTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The risk assessment paradigm has begun to shift from assessing single chemicals using "reasonable worst case" assumptions for individuals to considering multiple chemicals and community-based models. Inherent in community-based risk assessment is examination of all stressors a...

  10. INCORPORATING NONCHEMICAL STRESSORS INTO CUMMULATIVE RISK ASSESSMENTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The risk assessment paradigm has begun to shift from assessing single chemicals using "reasonable worst case" assumptions for individuals to considering multiple chemicals and community-based models. Inherent in community-based risk assessment is examination of all stressors a...

  11. Risk modelling for vaccination: a risk assessment perspective.

    PubMed

    Wooldridge, M

    2007-01-01

    Any risk assessment involves a number of steps. First, the risk manager, in close liaison with the risk assessor, should identify the question of interest. Then, the hazards associated with each risk question should be identified. Only then can the risks themselves be assessed. Several questions may reasonably be asked about the risk associated with avian influenza vaccines and their use. Some apply to any vaccine, while others are specific to avian influenza. Risks may occur during manufacture and during use. Some concern the vaccines themselves, while others address the effect of failure on disease control. The hazards associated with each risk question are then identified. These may be technical errors in design, development or production, such as contamination or failure to inactivate appropriately. They may relate to the biological properties of the pathogens themselves displayed during manufacture or use, for example, reversion to virulence, shedding or not being the right strain for the subsequent challenge. Following a consideration of risks and hazards, the information needed and an outline of the steps necessary to assess the risk is summarized, for an illustrative risk question using, as an example, the risks associated with the use of vaccines in the field. A brief consideration of the differences between qualitative and quantitative risk assessments is also included, and the potential effects of uncertainty and variability on the results are discussed.

  12. [Application of three risk assessment models in occupational health risk assessment of dimethylformamide].

    PubMed

    Wu, Z J; Xu, B; Jiang, H; Zheng, M; Zhang, M; Zhao, W J; Cheng, J

    2016-08-20

    Objective: To investigate the application of United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) inhalation risk assessment model, Singapore semi-quantitative risk assessment model, and occupational hazards risk assessment index method in occupational health risk in enterprises using dimethylformamide (DMF) in a certain area in Jiangsu, China, and to put forward related risk control measures. Methods: The industries involving DMF exposure in Jiangsu province were chosen as the evaluation objects in 2013 and three risk assessment models were used in the evaluation. EPA inhalation risk assessment model: HQ=EC/RfC; Singapore semi-quantitative risk assessment model: Risk= (HR×ER) (1/2); Occupational hazards risk assessment index=2(Health effect level)×2(exposure ratio)×Operation condition level. Results: The results of hazard quotient (HQ>1) from EPA inhalation risk assessment model suggested that all the workshops (dry method, wet method and printing) and work positions (pasting, burdening, unreeling, rolling, assisting) were high risk. The results of Singapore semi-quantitative risk assessment model indicated that the workshop risk level of dry method, wet method and printing were 3.5 (high) , 3.5 (high) and 2.8 (general) , and position risk level of pasting, burdening, unreeling, rolling, assisting were 4 (high) , 4 (high) , 2.8 (general) , 2.8 (general) and 2.8 (general) . The results of occupational hazards risk assessment index method demonstrated that the position risk index of pasting, burdening, unreeling, rolling, assisting were 42 (high) , 33 (high) , 23 (middle) , 21 (middle) and 22 (middle) . The results of Singapore semi-quantitative risk assessment model and occupational hazards risk assessment index method were similar, while EPA inhalation risk assessment model indicated all the workshops and positions were high risk. Conclusion: The occupational hazards risk assessment index method fully considers health effects, exposure, and operating conditions

  13. [Urban ecological risk assessment: a review].

    PubMed

    Wang, Mei-E; Chen, Wei-Ping; Peng, Chi

    2014-03-01

    With the development of urbanization and the degradation of urban living environment, urban ecological risks caused by urbanization have attracted more and more attentions. Based on urban ecology principles and ecological risk assessment frameworks, contents of urban ecological risk assessment were reviewed in terms of driven forces, risk resources, risk receptors, endpoints and integrated approaches for risk assessment. It was suggested that types and degrees of urban economical and social activities were the driven forces for urban ecological risks. Ecological functional components at different levels in urban ecosystems as well as the urban system as a whole were the risk receptors. Assessment endpoints involved in changes of urban ecological structures, processes, functional components and the integrity of characteristic and function. Social-ecological models should be the major approaches for urban ecological risk assessment. Trends for urban ecological risk assessment study should focus on setting a definite protection target and criteria corresponding to assessment endpoints, establishing a multiple-parameter assessment system and integrative assessment approaches.

  14. Mutational hot spots in the mitochondrial microcosm

    SciTech Connect

    Paeaebo, S.

    1996-09-01

    Human mitochondria can be seen as a genetic microcosm, located within the macrocosm of the entire cell. In each cell, this microcosm contains a few thousand copies of a circular DNA genome of 16,569 bp that is transmitted between generations, almost exclusively from mother to child. The study of this genetic microcosm holds particular fascination, since it may fore-shadow the coming genetics of the nuclear genome. In the mitochondrial microcosm, the {open_quotes}Human Genome Project{close_quotes} was completed years ago, with the publication of the DNA sequence of an entire mitochondrial genome. In the microcosm, one is thus well into the {open_quotes}postgenomic era.{close_quotes} It therefore may be instructive to ask what the first 15 years of postgenomics has brought within the microcosmic field of mitochondrial genetics. The availability of a complete genome sequence obviously brought great benefits to the study of physiological process in the mitochondria. However, in addition, many insights in the immediately postgenomic phase seem to come from the study of genomic variation. 26 refs.

  15. Assessing Human Health Risk from Pesticides

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    EPA protects human health and the environment by evaluating the risk associated with pesticides before allowing them to be used in the United States. Learn about the tools and processes used in risk assessment for pesticides.

  16. Revised Methods for Worker Risk Assessment

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    EPA is updating and changing the way it approaches pesticide risk assessments. This new approach will result in more comprehensive and consistent evaluation of potential risks of food use pesticides, non-food use pesticides, and occupational exposures.

  17. A Quantitative Software Risk Assessment Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lee, Alice

    2002-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews a risk assessment model as applied to software development. the presentation uses graphs to demonstrate basic concepts of software reliability. It also discusses the application to the risk model to the software development life cycle.

  18. ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS IN RISK ASSESSMENT WORKSHOP SUMMARY

    EPA Science Inventory

    Ecological indicators can be defined as relatively simple measurements that relay scientific information about complex ecosystems. Such indicators are used to characterize risk in ecological risk assessment (ERA) and to mark progress toward resource management goals. In late 1997...

  19. ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS IN RISK ASSESSMENT: WORKSHOP SUMMARY

    EPA Science Inventory

    Ecological indicators can be defined as relatively simple measurements that relay scientific information about complex ecosystems. Such indicators are used to characterize risk in ecological risk assessment and to mark progress toward resource management goals. In late 1997 scien...

  20. Colon Cancer Risk Assessment - Gauss Program

    Cancer.gov

    An executable file (in GAUSS) that projects absolute colon cancer risk (with confidence intervals) according to NCI’s Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (CCRAT) algorithm. GAUSS is not needed to run the program.

  1. Cumulative Assessment of Risk from Pesticides

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    EPA protects human health and the environment by evaluating the risk associated with pesticides before allowing them to be used in the United States. Learn about the tools and processes used in risk assessment for pesticides.

  2. ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS IN RISK ASSESSMENT: WORKSHOP SUMMARY

    EPA Science Inventory

    Ecological indicators can be defined as relatively simple measurements that relay scientific information about complex ecosystems. Such indicators are used to characterize risk in ecological risk assessment and to mark progress toward resource management goals. In late 1997 scien...

  3. ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS IN RISK ASSESSMENT WORKSHOP SUMMARY

    EPA Science Inventory

    Ecological indicators can be defined as relatively simple measurements that relay scientific information about complex ecosystems. Such indicators are used to characterize risk in ecological risk assessment (ERA) and to mark progress toward resource management goals. In late 1997...

  4. Integrated risk assessment and endocrine disrupters.

    PubMed

    Bridges, J W; Bridges, Olga

    2004-12-01

    1. The procedures currently employed for risk assessment are unlikely to be sustainable in the future for a variety of reasons. A number of actions are needed to remedy the situation and the most important of these actions are: * to improve access to existing data; * to introduce a prioritisation system based on exposure assessment; * to co-ordinate and harmonise approaches of different organisations involved in risk assessment. 2. Integration of information and methodologies between human health risk assessment and ecological risk assessment (integrated risk assessment) is advocated in this paper as one of the most important steps towards a holistic and effective way of conducting a risk assessment. 3. A framework is proposed for identification of agents for which an integrated risk assessment would be of particular value. Close collaboration across disciplines and across countries is necessary for the potential of integrated risk assessment to be realised in practice. The practicality of applying integrated risk assessment to endocrine disrupting agents is presently being investigated in an EU funded multi-laboratory collaborative study (CREDO).

  5. Risk Assessment Update: Russian Segment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Christiansen, Eric; Lear, Dana; Hyde, James; Bjorkman, Michael; Hoffman, Kevin

    2012-01-01

    BUMPER-II version 1.95j source code was provided to RSC-E- and Khrunichev at January 2012 MMOD TIM in Moscow. MEMCxP and ORDEM 3.0 environments implemented as external data files. NASA provided a sample ORDEM 3.0 g."key" & "daf" environment file set for demonstration and benchmarking BUMPER -II v1.95j installation at the Jan-12 TIM. ORDEM 3.0 has been completed and is currently in beta testing. NASA will provide a preliminary set of ORDEM 3.0 ".key" & ".daf" environment files for the years 2012 through 2028. Bumper output files produced using the new ORDEM 3.0 data files are intended for internal use only, not for requirements verification. Output files will contain these words ORDEM FILE DESCRIPTION = PRELIMINARY VERSION: not for production. The projectile density term in many BUMPER-II ballistic limit equations will need to be updated. Cube demo scripts and output files delivered at the Jan-12 TIM have been updated for the new ORDEM 3.0 data files. Risk assessment results based on ORDEM 3.0 and MEM will be presented for the Russian Segment (RS) of ISS.

  6. Risk communication in environmental assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Rahm-Crites, L.

    1996-08-26

    Since the enactment of NEPA and other environmental legislation, the concept of `risk communication` has expanded from simply providing citizens with scientific information about risk to exploring ways of making risk information genuinely meaningful to the public and facilitating public involvement in the very processes whereby risk is analyzed and managed. Contemporary risk communication efforts attempt to find more effective ways of conveying increasingly complex risk information and to develop more democratic and proactive approaches to community involvement, in particular to ensuring the participation of diverse populations in risk decisions. Although considerable progress has been made in a relatively short time, risk communication researchers and practitioners currently face a number of challenges in a time of high expectations, low trust, and low budgets.

  7. Proceedings of the 2006 Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference: Applying Mode of Action in Risk Assessment

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2006-07-01

    Ecological Risk Assessment; Benchmark Dose Methods ; Fundamentals of Risk Assessment; and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Tools for Managing Complex...Tomato; I Say Lampshade - Different Methods and Mechanisms for Health Risk Assessment.” The program, which is included in this report, gives an...cutting edge chemical mixture health risk assessment risk issues, explanation of state-of-the-art methods , and hands on exercises for several

  8. Issues in risk assessment. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1993-01-01

    The volume is the first in a series to be prepared by the Committee on Risk Assessment Methodology (CRAM) in the National Research Council's Board on Enviromental Studies and Toxicology. Three issues related to risk assessment are addressed here: use of the maximum tolerated dose (MTD) in animal bioassays for carcinogenicity, the two-state model of carcinogenesis, and a paradigm for ecologic risk assessment.

  9. Risk assessment of flood disaster and forewarning model at different spatial-temporal scales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhao, Jun; Jin, Juliang; Xu, Jinchao; Guo, Qizhong; Hang, Qingfeng; Chen, Yaqian

    2017-04-01

    Aiming at reducing losses from flood disaster, risk assessment of flood disaster and forewarning model is studied. The model is built upon risk indices in flood disaster system, proceeding from the whole structure and its parts at different spatial-temporal scales. In this study, on the one hand, it mainly establishes the long-term forewarning model for the surface area with three levels of prediction, evaluation, and forewarning. The method of structure-adaptive back-propagation neural network on peak identification is used to simulate indices in prediction sub-model. Set pair analysis is employed to calculate the connection degrees of a single index, comprehensive index, and systematic risk through the multivariate connection number, and the comprehensive assessment is made by assessment matrixes in evaluation sub-model. The comparison judging method is adopted to divide warning degree of flood disaster on risk assessment comprehensive index with forewarning standards in forewarning sub-model and then the long-term local conditions for proposing planning schemes. On the other hand, it mainly sets up the real-time forewarning model for the spot, which introduces the real-time correction technique of Kalman filter based on hydrological model with forewarning index, and then the real-time local conditions for presenting an emergency plan. This study takes Tunxi area, Huangshan City of China, as an example. After risk assessment and forewarning model establishment and application for flood disaster at different spatial-temporal scales between the actual and simulated data from 1989 to 2008, forewarning results show that the development trend for flood disaster risk remains a decline on the whole from 2009 to 2013, despite the rise in 2011. At the macroscopic level, project and non-project measures are advanced, while at the microcosmic level, the time, place, and method are listed. It suggests that the proposed model is feasible with theory and application, thus

  10. [Risk assessment on laboratory biosafety of Leishmania].

    PubMed

    Xiong, Yan-Hong; Guan, Ya-Yi; Cao, Jian-Ping

    2012-06-01

    To provide the evidence for improving the risk assessment and personal protective equipment and techniques to laboratory staff related to Leishmania. The laboratory biosafety of Leishmania was preliminarily assessed based on the biological background information, potential hazards in experimental activities, the risk analyses of laboratory personnel and other relevant factors. The risk assessment on laboratory biosafety of Leishmania was helpful for the establishment of the laboratory standard operating procedure, and was helpful for protecting the staff from infection of Leishmania. The risk assessment on laboratory biosafety is important to the safety of laboratory activity related to Leishmania, and is of a great significance to protect the laboratory staff.

  11. Plant bioindicators for polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon toxicity in aquatic microcosms

    SciTech Connect

    Gensemer, R.W.; Solomon, K.R.; Day, K.E.; Hodson, P.V.; Servos, M.R.; Greenberg, B.M.

    1994-12-31

    Plant bioindicators are being developed to assess the effects of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in experimental aquatic ecosystems. The approach is to develop and test biomarker assays that are specifically predictive of ecological events at the population and/or community levels of organization in artificial aquatic microcosms. PAH mixtures were introduced into a series of aquatic microcosms using the wood preservative creosote as a PAH source. The authors applied creosote at five dosage levels designed to simulate conductions observed at highly contaminated sites. The growth and biomass of phytoplankton, periphyton, and macrophytes were then measured throughout the growing season, and compared to one or more biomarker assays used to detect PAH contamination. Preliminary results using fluorescence induction on aquatic macrophytes suggest that PAHs can significantly inhibit photosynthesis at even modest concentrations 1--4 hours after exposure. This assay thus is not only a sensitive indicator of PAH exposure, but may also describe mechanisms of PAH toxicity that ultimately reduce biomass or population growth for aquatic plants in these microcosms.

  12. Trichloroacetic acid (TCA) and trifluoroacetic acid (TFA) mixture toxicity to the macrophytes Myriophyllum spicatum and Myriophyllum sibiricum in aquatic microcosms.

    PubMed

    Hanson, Mark L; Sibley, Paul K; Mabury, Scott A; Solomon, Keith R; Muir, Derek C G

    2002-02-21

    Trichloroacetic acid (TCA) and trifluoroacetic acid (TFA) have been detected together in environmental water samples throughout the world. TCA may enter into aquatic systems via rainout as the degradation product of chlorinated solvents, herbicide use, as a by-product of water disinfection and from emissions of spent bleach liquor of kraft pulp mills. Sources of TFA include degradation of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) refrigerants and pesticides. These substances are phytotoxic and widely distributed in aquatic environments. A study to assess the risk of a binary mixture of TCA and TFA to macrophytes in aquatic microcosms was conducted as part of a larger study on haloacetic acids. M. spicatum and M. sibiricum were exposed to 0.1, 1, 3 and 10 mg/l of both TCA and TFA (neutralized with sodium hydroxide) in replicate (n = 3) 12000 l aquatic microcosms for 49 days in an one-way analysis of variance design. Each microcosm was stocked with 14 individual apical shoots per species. The plants were sampled at regular intervals and assessed for the somatic endpoints of plant length, root growth, number of nodes and wet and dry mass and the biochemical endpoints of chlorophyll-a, chlorophyll-b, carotenoid content and citric acid levels. Results indicate that there were statistically significant effects of the TCA/TFA mixture on certain pigment concentrations immediately after the start of exposure (2-7 days), but the plants showed no signs of stress thereafter. These data suggest that TCA/TFA mixtures at environmentally relevant concentrations do not pose a significant risk to these aquatic macrophytes.

  13. Metal Vapor Arcing Risk Assessment Tool

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hill, Monika C.; Leidecker, Henning W.

    2010-01-01

    The Tin Whisker Metal Vapor Arcing Risk Assessment Tool has been designed to evaluate the risk of metal vapor arcing and to help facilitate a decision toward a researched risk disposition. Users can evaluate a system without having to open up the hardware. This process allows for investigating components at risk rather than spending time and money analyzing every component. The tool points to a risk level and provides direction for appropriate action and documentation.

  14. Advances in risk assessment and communication.

    PubMed

    Goldstein, Bernard D

    2005-01-01

    Risk analysis continues to evolve. There is increasing depth and breadth to each component of the four-step risk-assessment paradigm of hazard identification, dose-response analysis, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Basic conceptual approaches to understanding how people perceive risk are being tested against a growing body of empirical observations, many involving stakeholders. Emerging ideas such as the precautionary principle have provided challenges that have led to a rethinking of the role of risk assessment in environmental health. Newer problems, such as intergenerational issues posed by long-lasting radiation pollution, environmental justice, and the assessment and communication of risks related to terrorism, have spurred innovative approaches to risk analysis.

  15. Integrated Environmental Modeling: Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    The presentation discusses the need for microbial assessments and presents a road map associated with quantitative microbial risk assessments, through an integrated environmental modeling approach. A brief introduction and the strengths of the current knowledge are illustrated. W...

  16. Revised Human Health Risk Assessment on Chlorpyrifos

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    We have revised our human health risk assessment and drinking water exposure assessment for chlorpyrifos that supported our October 2015 proposal to revoke all food residue tolerances for chlorpyrifos. Learn about the revised analysis.

  17. Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment Tutorial - Primer

    EPA Science Inventory

    This document provides a Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) primer that organizes QMRA tutorials. The tutorials describe functionality of a QMRA infrastructure, guide the user through software use and assessment options, provide step-by-step instructions for implementi...

  18. Integrated Environmental Modeling: Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    The presentation discusses the need for microbial assessments and presents a road map associated with quantitative microbial risk assessments, through an integrated environmental modeling approach. A brief introduction and the strengths of the current knowledge are illustrated. W...

  19. Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brekke, Levi D.; Maurer, Edwin P.; Anderson, Jamie D.; Dettinger, Michael D.; Townsley, Edwin S.; Harrison, Alan; Pruitt, Tom

    2009-04-01

    Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California's Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios.

  20. Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Brekke, L.D.; Maurer, E.P.; Anderson, J.D.; Dettinger, M.D.; Townsley, E.S.; Harrison, A.; Pruitt, T.

    2009-01-01

    Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California's Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

  1. Ecological risk assessment framework -- the NAS perspective

    SciTech Connect

    Barnthouse, L.W.

    1993-06-01

    A Workshop on Ecological Risk Assessment was held on February 26--March 1, 1991, at Airlie House, Warrenton, Virginia. In addition to presentation and discussion of the case study papers, the workshop included breakout sessions to discuss conceptual and technical aspects of ecological risk assessment. A general consensus emerged that an ecological version of the 1983 framework is desirable and feasible. The committee concluded that the 1983 human health framework could be expanded to accomodate both human health and ecological risk assessment. For general applicability to ecological assessments, the 1983 scheme requires augmentation to address some of the interfaces between science and management, primarily because of the need to focus on appropriate questions relevant to applicable environmental law and policy under different circumstances. Specifically, the scheme needs modification to address (1) the influence of legal and regulatory considerations on the initial stages of ecological risk assessment and (2) the importance of characterizing ecological risks in terms that are intelligible to risk managers. The committee`s opinion is that these augmentations are as important for human health risk assessment as they are for ecological risk assessment. This paper briefly describes the framework recommended by the Committee and compares it to EPA`s recently-published Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment.

  2. Production Risk Assessing Methodology (PRAM).

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1982-05-01

    the price up five-fold which translates to $30.M. On the optimistic side,this same commodity market could bring the price down to one half of the price...57 PWMIW- A recognitinn that past product ion probl ems represent f ut ri , producto ; risk areas suggested an empirically developed risk structure

  3. Summary Report: Risk Assessment Forum Technical Workshop on Population-level Ecological Risk Assessment

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    2008 technical workshop regarding development of additional guidelines or best practices for planning, implementing and interpreting ecological risk assessments that involve population-level assessment endpoints.

  4. Cumulative Risk Assessment (CRA): Transforming the Way We Assess Health Risks

    PubMed Central

    Williams, Pamela R. D.; Dotson, G. Scott; Maier, Andrew

    2016-01-01

    Human health risk assessments continue to evolve and now focus on the need for cumulative risk assessment (CRA). CRA involves assessing the combined risk from coexposure to multiple chemical and nonchemical stressors for varying health effects. CRAs are broader in scope than traditional chemical risk assessments because they allow for a more comprehensive evaluation of the interaction between different stressors and their combined impact on human health. Future directions of CRA include greater emphasis on local-level community-based assessments; integrating environmental, occupational, community, and individual risk factors; and identifying and implementing common frameworks and risk metrics for incorporating multiple stressors. PMID:22938698

  5. Site-Specific Rules for Risk Assessment.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tucker, William; And Others

    1994-01-01

    This article examines the development of regulatory guidance upon which the technology of risk assessment has matured into a decision-making method of choice. It examines in particular the role of site-specific risk assessment at Superfund sites. (LZ)

  6. Assessing nanoparticle risk poses prodigious challenges

    EPA Science Inventory

    Risk assessment is used both formally and informally to estimate the likelihood of an adverse event occurring, for example, as a consequence of exposure to a hazardous chemical, drug or other agent. Formal risk assessments in government regulatory agencies have a long history of ...

  7. Risk Assess: What's Safe? What's Not? Why?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Duffy, Roslyn

    2010-01-01

    "Risk assess!" The words sound like a verbal stop sign. "Stop! Think! Consider!" In this article, the author presents an example of risk assessing that came from a nature education conference in Crieff, Scotland, that she attended as part of an international group of educators seeking ways to increase children's experiences…

  8. Risk Assess: What's Safe? What's Not? Why?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Duffy, Roslyn

    2010-01-01

    "Risk assess!" The words sound like a verbal stop sign. "Stop! Think! Consider!" In this article, the author presents an example of risk assessing that came from a nature education conference in Crieff, Scotland, that she attended as part of an international group of educators seeking ways to increase children's experiences…

  9. Site-Specific Rules for Risk Assessment.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tucker, William; And Others

    1994-01-01

    This article examines the development of regulatory guidance upon which the technology of risk assessment has matured into a decision-making method of choice. It examines in particular the role of site-specific risk assessment at Superfund sites. (LZ)

  10. Risk Assessment: An Examination of Assumptions.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Prince-Embury, Sandra

    A meta-analysis of theoretical debates concerned with the assessment of risk associated with the use of nuclear power as an energy source is presented in this paper. Based on a central premise that risk assessment has a direct impact on national policy decisions and is associated with different perspectives reflective of different social sectors,…

  11. Risk Assessment: An Examination of Assumptions.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Prince-Embury, Sandra

    A meta-analysis of theoretical debates concerned with the assessment of risk associated with the use of nuclear power as an energy source is presented in this paper. Based on a central premise that risk assessment has a direct impact on national policy decisions and is associated with different perspectives reflective of different social sectors,…

  12. Assessing nanoparticle risk poses prodigious challenges

    EPA Science Inventory

    Risk assessment is used both formally and informally to estimate the likelihood of an adverse event occurring, for example, as a consequence of exposure to a hazardous chemical, drug or other agent. Formal risk assessments in government regulatory agencies have a long history of ...

  13. LINES OF EVIDENCE IN WILDLIFE RISK ASSESSMENTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Ecological risk assessment has evolved rapidly from a qualitative set of observations to a quantitative science during the past decade. Methods for assessing risk to wildlife, however, remain largely theoretical as the empirical data required for accurate estimates of exposure o...

  14. Risk Assessment and Stewardship of Bt Crops

    EPA Science Inventory

    Registration of Bt crops as part of the FIFRA requirements involves the assessment of environmental risk associated with the new crop variety. The assessment analysis stipulates that the seed producer provide clear and unambiguous information relating to certain risk categories a...

  15. RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENT: PCE DRY CLEANERS ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This document describes the residual risk assessement for the Perchloroethylene Dry Cleaners source category. For stationary sources, section 112(f) of the Clean Air Act requires EPA to assess risks to human health and the environment following implementation of technology-based control standards. If these technology-based control standards do not provide an ample margin of safety, then EPA is required to promulgate additional standards. The purpose of this document is to describe the methodology and results of teh residual risk assessment performed for the Perchloroethylene Dry Cleaners source category. The results of this analysis will assist EPA in determining whether a residual risk rule for this source category is appropriate.

  16. Russian risk assessment methods and approaches

    SciTech Connect

    Dvorack, M.A.; Carlson, D.D.; Smith, R.E.

    1996-07-01

    One of the benefits resulting from the collapse of the Soviet Union is the increased dialogue currently taking place between American and Russian nuclear weapons scientists in various technical arenas. One of these arenas currently being investigated involves collaborative studies which illustrate how risk assessment is perceived and utilized in the Former Soviet Union (FSU). The collaborative studies indicate that, while similarities exist with respect to some methodologies, the assumptions and approaches in performing risk assessments were, and still are, somewhat different in the FSU as opposed to that in the US. The purpose of this paper is to highlight the present knowledge of risk assessment methodologies and philosophies within the two largest nuclear weapons laboratories of the Former Soviet Union, Arzamas-16 and Chelyabinsk-70. Furthermore, This paper will address the relative progress of new risk assessment methodologies, such as Fuzzy Logic, within the framework of current risk assessment methods at these two institutes.

  17. AN ASSESSMENT OF INTEGRATED RISK ASSESSMENT (Journal Article)

    EPA Science Inventory

    In order to promote international understanding and acceptance of the integrated risk assessment process, the WHO/IPCS, in collaboration with the U.S. EPA and the OECD, initiated a number of activities related to integrated risk assessment. In this project, WHO/IPCS defines inte...

  18. AN ASSESSMENT OF INTEGRATED RISK ASSESSMENT (Journal Article)

    EPA Science Inventory

    In order to promote international understanding and acceptance of the integrated risk assessment process, the WHO/IPCS, in collaboration with the U.S. EPA and the OECD, initiated a number of activities related to integrated risk assessment. In this project, WHO/IPCS defines inte...

  19. Guidelines for Neurotoxicity Risk Assessment

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    These Guidelines set forth principles and procedures to guide EPA scientists in evaluating environmental contaminants that may pose neurotoxic risks, and inform Agency decision makers and the public about these procedures.

  20. Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool

    MedlinePlus

    ... Colorectal Cancer Risk Factors Download SAS and Gauss Code Page Options Print Page Quick Links Colon and Rectal Cancer Home Page Colon and Rectal Cancer: Prevention, Genetics, Causes Tests to Detect Colorectal Cancer and Polyps ...

  1. Risk Assessment for Tooth Wear.

    PubMed

    Kontaxopoulou, Isavella; Alam, Sonia

    2015-08-01

    Tooth wear has an increasing prevalence in the UK population. The aetiology is commonly multifactorial, and the aetiopathology is through a combination of erosion, attrition, abrasion and abfraction. Erosion is associated with intrinsic or extrinsic acids, and therefore subjects with reflux disease and eating disorders are at increased risk. Fruit juice, fruits and carbonated drink consumption, frequency of consumption and specific habits are also risk factors. Attrition is more prevalent in bruxists. Other habits need to be considered when defining the risk of tooth wear. Abrasion is usually associated with toothbrushing and toothpastes, especially in an already acidic environment. Patients with extensive lesions that affect dentin may be at higher risk, as well as those presenting with unstained lesions. Monitoring of the progress of tooth wear is recommended to identify those with active tooth wear. Indices for tooth wear are a helpful aid.

  2. Cardiovascular risk assessment: a global perspective.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Dong; Liu, Jing; Xie, Wuxiang; Qi, Yue

    2015-05-01

    An important strategy in primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) is the early identification of high-risk individuals. Effective implementation of a strategy to identify these individuals in a clinical setting is reliant on the availability of appropriate CVD risk-assessment models and guideline recommendations. Several well-known models for CVD risk assessment have been developed and utilized in the USA and Europe, but might not be suitable for use in other regions or countries. Very few reports have discussed the development of risk-assessment models and recommendations from a global perspective. In this Review, we discuss why risk-assessment methods developed from studies in one geographical region or ethnic population might not be suitable for other regions or populations, and examine the availability and characteristics of predictive models in areas beyond the USA or Europe. In addition, we compare the differences in risk-assessment recommendations outlined in CVD clinical guidelines from developed and developing countries, and consider their potential effect on clinical practice. This overview of cardiovascular risk assessment from a global perspective can potentially guide low-to-middle-income countries in the development or validation of their own CVD risk-assessment models, and the formulation of recommendations in their own clinical guidelines according to local requirements.

  3. Values in science and risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Wandall, Birgitte

    2004-09-25

    It is a widely accepted claim that scientific practice contains value judgments, i.e. decisions made on the basis of values. This paper clarifies the concepts involved in this claim and explains its implications for risk assessment. It is explained why values are necessarily a part of science and of risk assessment. A certain type of values that contribute to the aim of science, so-called epistemic values, are identified as rationally justified as basis for judgment in science. It is argued that the aims of pure science and risk assessment differ in some aspects and that consequently pure science's epistemic values are not sufficient for risk assessment. I suggest how the epistemic values may be supplemented in order to align better with the aim of risk assessment. It is concluded that since risk assessment is no less value-laden than pure science, it is important (a) that risk assessors become aware of what values they are (often implicitly) relying on, (b) that the values are justifiable, and (c) that transparency is ensured, i.e. that the values and value-based assumptions applied in particular risk assessments are explicitly acknowledged.

  4. Cheese Microbial Risk Assessments — A Review

    PubMed Central

    Choi, Kyoung-Hee; Lee, Heeyoung; Lee, Soomin; Kim, Sejeong; Yoon, Yohan

    2016-01-01

    Cheese is generally considered a safe and nutritious food, but foodborne illnesses linked to cheese consumption have occurred in many countries. Several microbial risk assessments related to Listeria monocytogenes, Staphylococcus aureus, and Escherichia coli infections, causing cheese-related foodborne illnesses, have been conducted. Although the assessments of microbial risk in soft and low moisture cheeses such as semi-hard and hard cheeses have been accomplished, it has been more focused on the correlations between pathogenic bacteria and soft cheese, because cheese-associated foodborne illnesses have been attributed to the consumption of soft cheeses. As a part of this microbial risk assessment, predictive models have been developed to describe the relationship between several factors (pH, Aw, starter culture, and time) and the fates of foodborne pathogens in cheese. Predictions from these studies have been used for microbial risk assessment as a part of exposure assessment. These microbial risk assessments have identified that risk increased in cheese with high moisture content, especially for raw milk cheese, but the risk can be reduced by preharvest and postharvest preventions. For accurate quantitative microbial risk assessment, more data including interventions such as curd cooking conditions (temperature and time) and ripening period should be available for predictive models developed with cheese, cheese consumption amounts and cheese intake frequency data as well as more dose-response models. PMID:26950859

  5. Microcosm evaluation of the effects of an eight pharmaceutical mixture to the aquatic macrophytes Lemna gibba and Myriophyllum sibiricum.

    PubMed

    Brain, Richard A; Johnson, David J; Richards, Sean M; Hanson, Mark L; Sanderson, Hans; Lam, Monica W; Young, Cora; Mabury, Scott A; Sibley, Paul K; Solomon, Keith R

    2004-10-18

    Pharmaceuticals have been detected in surface waters of the US and Europe, originating largely from two sources, sewage effluent and agricultural runoff. These compounds often occur as mixtures leading to potential combined effects. In order to investigate the effects of a realistic pharmaceutical mixture on an ecosystem, a study utilizing 15 of 12,000 L aquatic microcosms treated with eight common pharmaceuticals (atorvastatin, acetaminophen, caffeine, sulfamethoxazole, carbamazepine, levofloxacin, sertraline, and trimethoprim) at total (summed) molar concentrations of 0, 0.044, 0.608, 2.664, and 24.538 micromol/L (n = 3) was conducted. Phytotoxicity was assessed on a variety of somatic and pigment endpoints in rooted (Myriophyllum sibiricum) and floating (Lemna gibba) macrophytes over a 35-day period. EC10, EC25 and EC50 values were calculated for each endpoint exhibiting a concentration-dependent response. Generally, M. sibiricum and L. gibba displayed similar sensitivity to the pharmaceutical mixture, with phytotoxic injury evident in both species, which was concentration dependent. Through single compound 7-day daily static renewal toxicity tests with L. gibba, the sulfonamide antibiotic sulfamethoxazole, the fluoroquinolone antibiotic levofloxacin and the blood lipid regulator atorvastatin were found to be the only compounds to elicit phytotoxic effects in the concentration range utilized (0-1000 microg/L). Atorvastatin concentration was highly correlated to decreased pigment content in L. gibba, likely inhibiting the known target enzyme HMGR, the rate-limiting enzyme in isoprenoid biosynthesis. Hazard quotients were calculated for both microcosm and laboratory studies; the highest HQ values were 0.235 (L. gibba) and 0.051 (L. gibba), which are below the threshold value of 1 for chronic risks. The microcosm data suggest that at an ecological effect size of >20%, biologically significant risks are low for L. gibba and M. sibiricum exposed to similar mixtures

  6. Risk Assessment: Perchloroethylene Dry Cleaners Refined Human Health Risk Characterization

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This November 2005 memo and appendices describe the methods by which EPA conducted its refined risk assessment of the Major Source and Area Source facilities within the perchloroethylene (perc) dry cleaners source category.

  7. Health Risk Assessments for Alumina Refineries

    PubMed Central

    Coffey, Patrick S.

    2014-01-01

    Objective: To describe contemporary air dispersion modeling and health risk assessment methodologies applied to alumina refineries and to summarize recent results. Methods: Air dispersion models using emission source and meteorological data have been used to assess ground-level concentrations (GLCs) of refinery emissions. Short-term (1-hour and 24-hour average) GLCs and annual average GLCs have been used to assess acute health, chronic health, and incremental carcinogenic risks. Results: The acute hazard index can exceed 1 close to refineries, but it is typically less than 1 at neighboring residential locations. The chronic hazard index is typically substantially less than 1. The incremental carcinogenic risk is typically less than 10−6. Conclusions: The risks of acute health effects are adequately controlled, and the risks of chronic health effects and incremental carcinogenic risks are negligible around referenced alumina refineries. PMID:24806721

  8. Health risk assessments for alumina refineries.

    PubMed

    Donoghue, A Michael; Coffey, Patrick S

    2014-05-01

    To describe contemporary air dispersion modeling and health risk assessment methodologies applied to alumina refineries and to summarize recent results. Air dispersion models using emission source and meteorological data have been used to assess ground-level concentrations (GLCs) of refinery emissions. Short-term (1-hour and 24-hour average) GLCs and annual average GLCs have been used to assess acute health, chronic health, and incremental carcinogenic risks. The acute hazard index can exceed 1 close to refineries, but it is typically less than 1 at neighboring residential locations. The chronic hazard index is typically substantially less than 1. The incremental carcinogenic risk is typically less than 10(-6). The risks of acute health effects are adequately controlled, and the risks of chronic health effects and incremental carcinogenic risks are negligible around referenced alumina refineries.

  9. Risk assessment of carcinogens in food

    SciTech Connect

    Barlow, Susan

    2010-03-01

    Approaches for the risk assessment of carcinogens in food have evolved as scientific knowledge has advanced. Early methods allowed little more than hazard identification and an indication of carcinogenic potency. Evaluation of the modes of action of carcinogens and their broad division into genotoxic and epigenetic (non-genotoxic, non-DNA reactive) carcinogens have played an increasing role in determining the approach followed and provide possibilities for more detailed risk characterisation, including provision of quantitative estimates of risk. Reliance on experimental animal data for the majority of risk assessments and the fact that human exposures to dietary carcinogens are often orders of magnitude below doses used in experimental studies has provided a fertile ground for discussion and diverging views on the most appropriate way to offer risk assessment advice. Approaches used by national and international bodies differ, with some offering numerical estimates of potential risks to human health, while others express considerable reservations about the validity of quantitative approaches requiring extrapolation of dose-response data below the observed range and instead offer qualitative advice. Recognising that qualitative advice alone does not provide risk managers with information on which to prioritise the need for risk management actions, a 'margin of exposure' approach for substances that are both genotoxic and carcinogenic has been developed, which is now being used by the World Health Organization and the European Food Safety Authority. This review describes the evolution of risk assessment advice on carcinogens and discusses examples of ways in which carcinogens in food have been assessed in Europe.

  10. Technical Overview of Ecological Risk Assessment: Problem Formulation

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Before the ecological risk assessment is conducted, risk assessors and risk managers engage in a planning dialogue to ensure that the risk assessment will enable the risk managers to make informed environmental decisions.

  11. PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessments) Participation versus Validation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    DeMott, Diana; Banke, Richard

    2013-01-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessments (PRAs) are performed for projects or programs where the consequences of failure are highly undesirable. PRAs primarily address the level of risk those projects or programs posed during operations. PRAs are often developed after the design has been completed. Design and operational details used to develop models include approved and accepted design information regarding equipment, components, systems and failure data. This methodology basically validates the risk parameters of the project or system design. For high risk or high dollar projects, using PRA methodologies during the design process provides new opportunities to influence the design early in the project life cycle to identify, eliminate or mitigate potential risks. Identifying risk drivers before the design has been set allows the design engineers to understand the inherent risk of their current design and consider potential risk mitigation changes. This can become an iterative process where the PRA model can be used to determine if the mitigation technique is effective in reducing risk. This can result in more efficient and cost effective design changes. PRA methodology can be used to assess the risk of design alternatives and can demonstrate how major design changes or program modifications impact the overall program or project risk. PRA has been used for the last two decades to validate risk predictions and acceptability. Providing risk information which can positively influence final system and equipment design the PRA tool can also participate in design development, providing a safe and cost effective product.

  12. NASA Human System Risk Assessment Process

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Francisco, D.; Romero, E.

    2016-01-01

    NASA utilizes an evidence based system to perform risk assessments for the human system for spaceflight missions. The center of this process is the multi-disciplinary Human System Risk Board (HSRB). The HSRB is chartered from the Chief Health and Medical Officer (OCHMO) at NASA Headquarters. The HSRB reviews all human system risks via an established comprehensive risk and configuration management plan based on a project management approach. The HSRB facilitates the integration of human research (terrestrial and spaceflight), medical operations, occupational surveillance, systems engineering and many other disciplines in a comprehensive review of human system risks. The HSRB considers all factors that influence human risk. These factors include pre-mission considerations such as screening criteria, training, age, sex, and physiological condition. In mission factors such as available countermeasures, mission duration and location and post mission factors such as time to return to baseline (reconditioning), post mission health screening, and available treatments. All of the factors influence the total risk assessment for each human risk. The HSRB performed a comprehensive review of all potential inflight medical conditions and events and over the course of several reviews consolidated the number of human system risks to 30, where the greatest emphasis is placed for investing program dollars for risk mitigation. The HSRB considers all available evidence from human research and, medical operations and occupational surveillance in assessing the risks for appropriate mitigation and future work. All applicable DRMs (low earth orbit for 6 and 12 months, deep space for 30 days and 1 year, a lunar mission for 1 year, and a planetary mission for 3 years) are considered as human system risks are modified by the hazards associated with space flight such as microgravity, exposure to radiation, distance from the earth, isolation and a closed environment. Each risk has a summary

  13. [Study on application of two risk assessment methods in coal dust occupational health risk assessment].

    PubMed

    Wu, B; Zhang, Y L; Chen, Y Q

    2017-04-20

    Objective: To evaluate the applicability of quantitative grading method (GBZ/T 229.1-2010) and occupational hazard risk index method in coal dust occupational health risk assessment. Methods: Taking 4 coal mines as the research object of risk assessment and making occupational health field testing and investigation. Based on two risk assessment methods, we analysed the health risk levels of 20 occupations which were exposed to coal dust in workplaces. Results: Coal dust working post had different risk levels in 4 coal mines, the post of higher risk level were mainly concentrated in the underground workplace of coal mine, especially the post of coal mining and tunneling system. The two risk assessment results showed that the risk levels of coal-mining machine drivers and tunneling machine drivers were the highest. The risk levels of coal dust working post used by two risk assessment methods had no significant difference (P>0.05) and were highly correlated (r=0.821, P<0.001) . Evaluation results of two risk assessment methods were supported by the field investigation and literatures. Conclusion: The two risk assessment methods can be used in coal dust occupational health risk assessment.

  14. Enhancing the ecological risk assessment process.

    PubMed

    Dale, Virginia H; Biddinger, Gregory R; Newman, Michael C; Oris, James T; Suter, Glenn W; Thompson, Timothy; Armitage, Thomas M; Meyer, Judith L; Allen-King, Richelle M; Burton, G Allen; Chapman, Peter M; Conquest, Loveday L; Fernandez, Ivan J; Landis, Wayne G; Master, Lawrence L; Mitsch, William J; Mueller, Thomas C; Rabeni, Charles F; Rodewald, Amanda D; Sanders, James G; van Heerden, Ivor L

    2008-07-01

    The Ecological Processes and Effects Committee of the US Environmental Protection Agency Science Advisory Board conducted a self-initiated study and convened a public workshop to characterize the state of the ecological risk assessment (ERA), with a view toward advancing the science and application of the process. That survey and analysis of ERA in decision making shows that such assessments have been most effective when clear management goals were included in the problem formulation; translated into information needs; and developed in collaboration with decision makers, assessors, scientists, and stakeholders. This process is best facilitated when risk managers, risk assessors, and stakeholders are engaged in an ongoing dialogue about problem formulation. Identification and acknowledgment of uncertainties that have the potential to profoundly affect the results and outcome of risk assessments also improves assessment effectiveness. Thus we suggest 1) through peer review of ERAs be conducted at the problem formulation stage and 2) the predictive power of risk-based decision making be expanded to reduce uncertainties through analytical and methodological approaches like life cycle analysis. Risk assessment and monitoring programs need better integration to reduce uncertainty and to evaluate risk management decision outcomes. Postdecision audit programs should be initiated to evaluate the environmental outcomes of risk-based decisions. In addition, a process should be developed to demonstrate how monitoring data can be used to reduce uncertainties. Ecological risk assessments should include the effects of chemical and nonchemical stressors at multiple levels of biological organization and spatial scale, and the extent and resolution of the pertinent scales and levels of organization should be explicitly considered during problem formulation. An approach to interpreting lines of evidence and weight of evidence is critically needed for complex assessments, and it would

  15. Enhancing the Ecological Risk Assessment Process

    SciTech Connect

    Dale, Virginia H

    2008-01-01

    The Ecological Processes and Effects Committee of the US Environmental Protection Agency Science Advisory Board conducted a self-initiated study and convened a public workshop to characterize the state of the ecological risk assessment (ERA), with a view toward advancing the science and application of the process. That survey and analysis of ERA in decision making shows that such assessments have been most effective when clear management goals were included in the problem formulation; translated into information needs; and developed in collaboration with decision makers, assessors, scientists, and stakeholders. This process is best facilitated when risk managers, risk assessors, and stakeholders are engaged in an ongoing dialogue about problem formulation. Identification and acknowledgment of uncertainties that have the potential to profoundly affect the results and outcome of risk assessments also improves assessment effectiveness. Thus we suggest (1) thorough peer review of ERAs be conducted at the problem formulation stage and (2) the predictive power of risk-based decision making be expanded to reduce uncertainties through analytical and methodological approaches like life cycle analysis. Risk assessment and monitoring programs need better integration to reduce uncertainty and to evaluate risk management decision outcomes. Postdecision audit programs should be initiated to evaluate the environmental outcomes of risk-based decisions. In addition, a process should be developed to demonstrate how monitoring data can be used to reduce uncertainties. Ecological risk assessments should include the effects of chemical and nonchemical stressors at multiple levels of biological organization and spatial scale, and the extent and resolution of the pertinent scales and levels of organization should be explicitly considered during problem formulation. An approach to interpreting lines of evidence and weight of evidence is critically needed for complex assessments, and it

  16. Prospective actuarial risk assessment: a comparison of five risk assessment instruments in different sexual offender subtypes.

    PubMed

    Rettenberger, Martin; Matthes, Anna; Boer, Douglas P; Eher, Reinhard

    2010-04-01

    This study examines the predictive validity of the most commonly used risk assessment instruments for sexual offenders: Static-99, Rapid Risk Assessment for Sexual Offense Recidivism, Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide, Sexual Violence Risk-20, and Psychopathy Checklist-Revised in a prospective research design. Although risk assessment is part of a regime leading to various efforts to reduce risk by treatment and aftercare, all instruments show good predictive validity. However, depending on the instrument, recidivism category, and subgroup, the predictive accuracy varies markedly. Furthermore, the authors fail to demonstrate predictive validity for sexual violent reoffences-for the whole sample and for all subgroups. The results, nevertheless, support the utility and predictive validity of actuarial risk assessment complementary to treatment efforts to reduce risk. On the other hand, forensic practitioners have to be aware of the limitations of actuarial risk assessment methods, in particular as regards to variable predictive accuracy for different sexual offender subgroups and reoffence categories.

  17. CANCER RISK ASSESSMENT FOR CHLOROFORM

    EPA Science Inventory

    Chloroform is a common chlorination by-product in drinking water. EPA has regulated chloroform as a probable human carcinogen under the Safe Drinking Water Act. The cancer risk estimate via ingestion was based on the 1985 Jorgenson study identifying kidney tumors in male Osborne ...

  18. CANCER RISK ASSESSMENT FOR CHLOROFORM

    EPA Science Inventory

    Chloroform is a common chlorination by-product in drinking water. EPA has regulated chloroform as a probable human carcinogen under the Safe Drinking Water Act. The cancer risk estimate via ingestion was based on the 1985 Jorgenson study identifying kidney tumors in male Osborne ...

  19. ASSESSING WATERBORNE RISKS: AN INTRODUCTION

    EPA Science Inventory

    Information in this article can help readers evaluate the results of epidemiologic studies of

    waterborne disease risks. It is important that readers understand the various epidemiologic study

    designs, their strengths and limitations, and potential biases. Terminolog...

  20. Vehicle emission unit risk factors for transportation risk assessments

    SciTech Connect

    Biwer, B.M.; Butler, J.P.

    1999-12-01

    When the transportation risk posed by shipments of hazardous chemical and radioactive materials is being assessed, it is necessary to evaluate the risks associated with both vehicle emissions and cargo-related risks. Diesel exhaust and fugitive dust emissions from vehicles transporting hazardous shipments lead to increased air pollution, which increases the risk of latent fatalities in the affected population along the transport route. The estimated risk from these vehicle-related sources can often by as large or larger than the estimated risk associated with the material being transported. In this paper, data from the US Environmental Protection Agency's Motor Vehicle-Related Air Toxics Study are first used to develop latent cancer fatality estimates per kilometer of travel in rural and urban areas for all diesel truck classes. These unit risk factors are based on studies investigating the carcinogenic nature of diesel exhaust. With the same methodology, the current per=kilometer latent fatality risk factor used in transportation risk assessment for heavy diesel trucks in urban areas is revised and the analysis expanded to provide risk factors for rural areas and all diesel truck classes. These latter fatality estimates may include, but are not limited to, cancer fatalities and are based primarily on the most recent epidemiological data available on mortality rates associated with ambient air PM-10 concentrations.

  1. Vehicle emission unit risk factors for transportation risk assessments.

    PubMed

    Biwer, B M; Butler, J P

    1999-12-01

    When the transportation risk posed by shipments of hazardous chemical and radioactive materials is being assessed, it is necessary to evaluate the risks associated with both vehicle emissions and cargo-related risks. Diesel exhaust and fugitive dust emissions from vehicles transporting hazardous shipments lead to increased air pollution, which increases the risk of latent fatalities in the affected population along the transport route. The estimated risk from these vehicle-related sources can often be as large or larger than the estimated risk associated with the material being transported. In this paper, data from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Motor Vehicle-Related Air Toxics Study are first used to develop latent cancer fatality estimates per kilometer of travel in rural and urban areas for all diesel truck classes. These unit risk factors are based on studies investigating the carcinogenic nature of diesel exhaust. With the same methodology, the current per-kilometer latent fatality risk factor used in transportation risk assessments for heavy diesel trucks in urban areas is revised and the analysis expanded to provide risk factors for rural areas and all diesel truck classes. These latter fatality estimates may include, but are not limited to, cancer fatalities and are based primarily on the most recent epidemiological data available on mortality rates associated with ambient air PM-10 concentrations.

  2. Effects of pharmaceutical mixtures in aquatic microcosms.

    PubMed

    Richards, Sean M; Wilson, Christian J; Johnson, David J; Castle, Dawn M; Lam, Monica; Mabury, Scott A; Sibley, Paul K; Solomon, Keith R

    2004-04-01

    Pharmaceuticals have a wide range of biological properties and are released into the environment in relatively large amounts, yet little information is available regarding their effects or potential ecological risks. We exposed outdoor aquatic microcosms to combinations of ibuprofen (a nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug), fluoxetine (a selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor), and ciprofloxacin (a DNA gyrase-inhibiting antibiotic) at concentrations of 6, 10, and 10 microg/L, respectively (low treatment [LT]); 60, 100, and 100 microg/L, respectively (medium treatment [MT]); and 600, 1,000, and 1,000 microg/L, respectively (high treatment [HT]). We maintained these concentrations for 35 d. Few responses were observed in the LT; however, effects were observed in the MT and HT. Fish mortality occurred in the MT (<35 d) and in the HT (<4 d). Phytoplankton increased in abundance and decreased in diversity (number of taxa) in the HT, with consistent trends being observed in the MT and LT. Zooplankton also showed increased abundance and decreases in diversity in the HT, with consistent trends being observed in the MT. Multivariate analyses for zooplankton and phytoplankton suggested interactions between these communities. Lemna gibba and Myriophyllum spp. showed mortality in the HT; growth of L. gibba was also reduced in the MT. Bacterial abundance did not change in the HT. All responses were observed at concentrations well below the equivalent pharmacologically active concentrations in mammals. Although the present data do not suggest that ibuprofen, fluoxetine, and ciprofloxacin are individually causing adverse effects in surface-water environments, questions remain about additive responses from mixtures.

  3. Assessing Risk in Graphically Presented Financial Series.

    PubMed

    Sobolev, Daphne; Harvey, Nigel

    2016-12-01

    It has been argued that traders use their natural sensitivity to the fractal properties of price graphs to assess risk and that they are better able to do this when given price change as well as price level information. This approach implies that risk assessments should be higher when the Hurst exponents are lower, that this relationship should be stronger in the presence of price change information and that risk assessment should depend more strongly on the Hurst exponent than on the standard deviation of the series. Participants in Experiment 1 decided which of two assets was riskier by inspecting graphs of their price series. Graphs with lower Hurst exponents were selected only by those who were less emotionally stable and hence more sensitive to risk. However, when both price series and price change series were presented, the assets with lower Hurst exponents were selected by all participants. In a second experiment, participants were given both price level and price change series for a number of assets and rated the risk of trading in each one. Ratings depended more strongly on Hurst exponents than on other measures of volatility. They also depended on indicators of potential loss. Human risk assessment deviates from the way that risk is measured in modern finance theory: it requires integration of information relevant to both uncertainty and loss aversion, thereby imposing high attentional demands on traders. These demands may impair risk assessment but they can be eased by adding displays of price change information.

  4. Subjective risk assessment for planning conservation projects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Game, Edward T.; Fitzsimons, James A.; Lipsett-Moore, Geoff; McDonald-Madden, Eve

    2013-12-01

    Conservation projects occur under many types of uncertainty. Where this uncertainty can affect achievement of a project’s objectives, there is risk. Understanding risks to project success should influence a range of strategic and tactical decisions in conservation, and yet, formal risk assessment rarely features in the guidance or practice of conservation planning. We describe how subjective risk analysis tools can be framed to facilitate the rapid identification and assessment of risks to conservation projects, and how this information should influence conservation planning. Our approach is illustrated with an assessment of risks to conservation success as part of a conservation plan for the work of The Nature Conservancy in northern Australia. Risks can be both internal and external to a project, and occur across environmental, social, economic and political systems. Based on the relative importance of a risk and the level of certainty in its assessment we propose a series of appropriate, project level responses including research, monitoring, and active amelioration. Explicit identification, prioritization, and where possible, management of risks are important elements of using conservation resources in an informed and accountable manner.

  5. Chemical Risk Assessment: Traditional vs Public Health ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Preventing adverse health impacts from exposures to environmental chemicals is fundamental to protecting individual and public health. When done efficiently and properly, chemical risk assessment enables risk management actions that minimize the incidence and impacts of environmentally-induced diseases related to chemical exposure. However, traditional chemical risk assessment is faced with multiple challenges with respect to predicting and preventing disease in human populations, and epidemiological studies increasingly report observations of adverse health effects at exposure levels predicted from animal studies to be safe for humans. This discordance reinforces concerns about the adequacy of contemporary risk assessment practices (Birnbaum, Burke, & Jones, 2016) for protecting public health. It is becoming clear that to protect public health more effectively, future risk assessments will need to use the full range of available data, draw on innovative methods to integrate diverse data streams, and consider health endpoints that also reflect the range of subtle effects and morbidities observed in human populations. Given these factors, there is a need to reframe chemical risk assessment to be more clearly aligned with the public health goal of minimizing environmental exposures associated with disease. Preventing adverse health impacts from exposures to environmental chemicals is fundamental to protecting individual and public health. Chemical risk assessments

  6. USE OF TOXICOGENOMICS DATA IN RISK ASSESSMENT ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The goal of this project is to address the question, “Can existing toxicogenomics (TG) data improve Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) chemical health or risk assessments?” Although genomics data promises to impact multiple areas of science, medicine, law, and policy, there are only a few areas where genomics data currently has application (e.g., biomarkers of disease). As the technology continues to advance, EPA will need to prepare for genomics data availability and submission by: 1) identifying areas of risk assessment where such data may be particularly useful; 2) developing acceptance criteria for inclusion of toxicogenomics data in risk assessment; and 3) developing approaches for the use of toxicogenomics in risk assessment. These needs will likely require an iterative and collaborative research process between risk assessors and scientists (inside and outside the Agency). At the NCEA sponsored Genomics and Risk Assessment Colloquium in 2003, one of the recommendations was to conduct case studies that could provide a practical attempt to incorporate currently available toxicogenomics data that would illuminate issues and the methods development. This project is responds to this recommendation. To address the question of whether TG data can improve health risk assessments, a case study will be performed in which TG data for one chemical will be incorporated qualitatively within the hazard characterization step of a recent or ongoing EPA chemical he

  7. Phthalates and Cumulative Risk Assessment (NAS Final ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    On December 18, 2008, the National Academy of Sciences' National Research Council released a final report, requested and sponsored by the EPA, entitled Phthalates and Cumulative Risk Assessment: The Task Ahead. Risk assessment has become a dominant public policy tool for making choices, based on limited resources, to protect public health and the environment. It has been instrumental to the mission of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) as well as other federal agencies in evaluating public health concerns, informing regulatory and technological decisions, prioritizing research needs and funding, and in developing approaches for cost-benefit analysis. People are exposed to a variety of chemicals throughout their daily lives. To protect public health, regulators use risk assessments to examine the effects of chemical exposures. This book provides guidance for assessing the risk of phthalates, chemicals found in many consumer products that have been shown to affect the development of the male reproductive system of laboratory animals. Because people are exposed to multiple phthalates and other chemicals that affect male reproductive development, a cumulative risk assessment should be conducted that evaluates the combined effects of exposure to all these chemicals. The book suggests an approach for cumulative risk assessment that can serve as a model for evaluating the health risks of other types of chemicals.

  8. The influence of simulated immigration and chemical persistence on recovery of macroinvertebrates from cypermethrin and 3,4-dichloroaniline exposure in aquatic microcosms.

    PubMed

    Maund, Steve; Biggs, Jeremy; Williams, Penny; Whitfield, Mercia; Sherratt, Thomas; Powley, Will; Heneghan, Phil; Jepson, Paul; Shillabeer, Nigel

    2009-06-01

    Chemical dissipation and organism immigration are considered important factors that influence recovery potential from perturbation of aquatic macroinvertebrates. Experiments were conducted to investigate the effect of simulated immigration on recovery of aquatic macroinvertebrates exposed in outdoor microcosms to ecotoxicologically similar concentrations of the rapidly dissipating pyrethroid insecticide cypermethrin (70 ng L(-1)) or the more persistent herbicide intermediate and degradate 3,4-dichloroaniline (10 mg L(-1)). Microcosms were covered with light-permeable mesh to prevent recolonisation. Immigration was simulated by the regular addition of organisms after treatment. Microcosms exposed to 3,4-dichloroaniline treatment suffered substantial loss of taxon richness and by 10 months after treatment had only recovered where invertebrates had been added. Those treated with cypermethrin underwent an initial decline in certain crustacean and insect populations. These populations showed some signs of recovery over a period of 5 months through internal processes alone. However, rate of recovery was further enhanced where immigration was simulated, and in this case recovery had occurred around 100 days after treatment. Although not the only factors involved, simulated immigration and chemical fate clearly influence the ability of communities to recover from chemical exposure. Consideration of immigration processes and development of models will help to increase the realism of risk assessments.

  9. Uncertainty and sensitivity assessment of flood risk assessments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Moel, H.; Aerts, J. C.

    2009-12-01

    Floods are one of the most frequent and costly natural disasters. In order to protect human lifes and valuable assets from the effect of floods many defensive structures have been build. Despite these efforts economic losses due to catastrophic flood events have, however, risen substantially during the past couple of decades because of continuing economic developments in flood prone areas. On top of that, climate change is expected to affect the magnitude and frequency of flood events. Because these ongoing trends are expected to continue, a transition can be observed in various countries to move from a protective flood management approach to a more risk based flood management approach. In a risk based approach, flood risk assessments play an important role in supporting decision making. Most flood risk assessments assess flood risks in monetary terms (damage estimated for specific situations or expected annual damage) in order to feed cost-benefit analysis of management measures. Such flood risk assessments contain, however, considerable uncertainties. This is the result from uncertainties in the many different input parameters propagating through the risk assessment and accumulating in the final estimate. Whilst common in some other disciplines, as with integrated assessment models, full uncertainty and sensitivity analyses of flood risk assessments are not so common. Various studies have addressed uncertainties regarding flood risk assessments, but have mainly focussed on the hydrological conditions. However, uncertainties in other components of the risk assessment, like the relation between water depth and monetary damage, can be substantial as well. This research therefore tries to assess the uncertainties of all components of monetary flood risk assessments, using a Monte Carlo based approach. Furthermore, the total uncertainty will also be attributed to the different input parameters using a variance based sensitivity analysis. Assessing and visualizing the

  10. How probabilistic risk assessment can mislead terrorism risk analysts.

    PubMed

    Brown, Gerald G; Cox, Louis Anthony Tony

    2011-02-01

    Traditional probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), of the type originally developed for engineered systems, is still proposed for terrorism risk analysis. We show that such PRA applications are unjustified in general. The capacity of terrorists to seek and use information and to actively research different attack options before deciding what to do raises unique features of terrorism risk assessment that are not adequately addressed by conventional PRA for natural and engineered systems-in part because decisions based on such PRA estimates do not adequately hedge against the different probabilities that attackers may eventually act upon. These probabilities may differ from the defender's (even if the defender's experts are thoroughly trained, well calibrated, unbiased probability assessors) because they may be conditioned on different information. We illustrate the fundamental differences between PRA and terrorism risk analysis, and suggest use of robust decision analysis for risk management when attackers may know more about some attack options than we do.

  11. Nuclear insurance risk assessment using risk-based methodology

    SciTech Connect

    Wendland, W.G. )

    1992-01-01

    This paper presents American Nuclear Insurers' (ANI's) and Mutual Atomic Energy Liability Underwriters' (MAELU's) process and experience for conducting nuclear insurance risk assessments using a risk-based methodology. The process is primarily qualitative and uses traditional insurance risk assessment methods and an approach developed under the auspices of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) in which ANI/MAELU is an active sponsor. This process assists ANI's technical resources in identifying where to look for insurance risk in an industry in which insurance exposure tends to be dynamic and nonactuarial. The process is an evolving one that also seeks to minimize the impact on insureds while maintaining a mutually agreeable risk tolerance.

  12. NUREG-1150 risk assessment results

    SciTech Connect

    Benjamin, A.S.; Kunsman, D.M.; Boyd, G.J.; Lewis, S.R.; Amos, C.N.; Smith, L.N.

    1987-01-01

    The methodology developed in support of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC's) evaluation of severe accident risks in NUREG-1150 is noted. This paper discusses the results. The principal technical analyses for NUREG-1150 were performed at Sandia National Labs. under the Severe Accident Risk Reduction Program and the Accident Sequence Evaluation Program. The analyses have been completed so far for four reference plants: (a) a pressurized water reactor (PWR) with a dry, subatmospheric containment (Surry Unit 1), (b) a PWR with an ice condenser containment (Sequoyah Unit 1), (c) a boiling water reactor (BWR) with a Mark I containment (Peach Bottom Unit 2), and (d) a BWR with a Mark III containment (Grand Gulf Unit 1). A fifth NUREG-1150 plant, a PWR with a large, dry containment (Zion Unit 1), has been evaluated separately by Brookhaven National Lab. Sample risk results for one of the plants (Surry) are presented. The results for Sequoyah, Peach Bottom, and Grand Gulf are broadly compared with those for Surry.

  13. Risk Assessment and Alternatives Assessment: Comparing Two Methodologies

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    The selection and use of chemicals and materials with less hazardous profiles reflects a paradigm shift from reliance on risk minimization through exposure controls to hazard avoidance. This article introduces risk assessment and alternatives assessment frameworks in order to clarify a misconception that alternatives assessment is a less effective tool to guide decision making, discusses factors promoting the use of each framework, and also identifies how and when application of each framework is most effective. As part of an assessor's decision process to select one framework over the other, it is critical to recognize that each framework is intended to perform different functions. Although the two frameworks share a number of similarities (such as identifying hazards and assessing exposure), an alternatives assessment provides a more realistic framework with which to select environmentally preferable chemicals because of its primary reliance on assessing hazards and secondary reliance on exposure assessment. Relevant to other life cycle impacts, the hazard of a chemical is inherent, and although it may be possible to minimize exposure (and subsequently reduce risk), it is challenging to assess such exposures through a chemical's life cycle. Through increased use of alternatives assessments at the initial stage of material or product design, there will be less reliance on post facto risk‐based assessment techniques because the potential for harm is significantly reduced, if not avoided, negating the need for assessing risk in the first place. PMID:26694655

  14. Operationalization Of The Professional Risks Assessment Activity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ivascu, Victoria Larisa; Cirjaliu, Bianca; Draghici, Anca

    2015-07-01

    Professional risks assessment approach (integration of analysis and evaluation processes) is linked with the general concerns of nowadays companies for their employees' health and safety assurances, in the context of organizations sustainable development. The paper presents an approach for the operationalization of the professional risk assessment activity in companies through the implementation and use of the OnRisk platform (this have been tested in some industrial companies). The short presentation of the relevant technical reports and statistics on OSH management at the European Union level underlines the need for the development of a professional risks assessment. Finally, there have been described the designed and developed OnRisk platform as a web platform together with some case studies that have validate the created tool.

  15. Exposure and effects of sediment-spiked fludioxonil on macroinvertebrates and zooplankton in outdoor aquatic microcosms.

    PubMed

    Yin, Xiao H; Brock, Theo C M; Barone, Lidia E; Belgers, J Dick M; Boerwinkel, Marie-Claire; Buijse, Laura; van Wijngaarden, René P A; Hamer, Mick; Roessink, Ivo

    2017-08-25

    Information from effects of pesticides in sediments at an ecosystem level, to validate current and proposed risk assessment procedures, is scarce. A sediment-spiked outdoor freshwater microcosm experiment was conducted with fludioxonil (lipophilic, non-systemic fungicide) to study exposure dynamics and treatment-related responses of benthic and pelagic macroinvertebrates and zooplankton. Besides blank control and solvent control systems the experiment had six different treatment levels (1.7-614mga.s./kg dry sediment) based around the reported 28-d No Observed Effect Concentration (NOEC) for Chironomus riparius (40mga.s./kg dry sediment). Twelve systems were available per treatment of which four were sacrificed on each of days 28, 56 and 84 after microcosm construction. Fludioxonil persisted in the sediment and mean measured concentrations were 53-82% of the initial concentration after 84days. The dissipation rate increased with the treatment level. Also exposure concentrations in overlying water were long-term, with highest concentrations 28days after initiation of the experiment. Sediment-dwelling Oligochaeta and pelagic Rotifera and Cladocera showed the most pronounced treatment-related declines. The most sensitive sediment-dwelling oligochaete was Dero digitata (population NOEC 14.2mga.s./kg dry sediment). The same NOEC was calculated for the sediment-dwelling macroinvertebrate community. The most sensitive zooplankton species was the cladoceran Diaphanosoma brachyurum (NOEC of 1.6μga.s./L in overlying water corresponding to 5.0mga.s./kg dry sediment). At the two highest treatments several rotifer taxa showed a pronounced decrease, while the zooplankton community-level NOEC was 5.6μga.s./L (corresponding to 14.2mga.s./kg dry sediment). Zooplankton taxa calanoid Copepoda and Daphnia gr. longispina showed a pronounced treatment-related increase (indirect effects). Consequently, an assessment factor of 10 to the chronic laboratory NOECs of Chironomus riparius

  16. Assessing risk assessment: genetic testing and screening for complex disease.

    PubMed

    Cox, S M

    2006-11-01

    This paper reports on the presentations from the second session of a 2-day workshop on genetic diversity and science communication, organized by the Institute of Genetics. The four talks in this session (by Sarah Cunningham-Burley, Gail Geller, Michael Hayden, and Theresa Marteau) focused on the topic of risk assessment in the context of genetic testing, screening and preventive medicine for complex disease. Each talk underscored the urgency and importance of evaluating when and for whom risk assessment may be useful. A recurrent theme was the need to attend closely to the diverse ways that risk is constructed, perceived and communicated in a variety of contexts and the significant implications of this for laypersons as well as experts. Although there was no consensus on when genetic risk assessment ceases (or might begin) to be useful, ensuing dialogue between presenters and participants reflected what is perhaps a new and critical engagement with how risk assessment itself is assessed. In response to this impetus, I use the word RISK as a heuristic to identify, extract and amplify four tendencies that appear to advance understandings of risk assessment towards a more explicitly reflexive, interpretive, and situated form of knowing.

  17. Army Independent Risk Assessment Guidebook

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-04-01

    RFI - Request for Information...Cost Uncertainty S&T Community • Identify Technologies • Assess Readiness Levels PM •System Concepts •Program ScheduleIn p u ts to R is k A ss...es sm en t Develop Cost Estimate S u m m a ri ze R is k A s s e s s m e n ts In te rd e p e n d e n c ie s 14 o Assess the transition times

  18. How We Assess Risks to Pollinators

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    EPA has a new risk assessment framework for bees as part of its regulatory decision-making process for all pesticides, which relies on a tiered process, focuses on major routes of exposure, and distinguishes different types of pesticide treatment.

  19. Guidelines for Reproductive Toxicity Risk Assessment

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    These guidelines discuss the scientific basis for concern about exposure to agents that cause reproductive toxicity and describe the principles and procedures to be followed in conducting risk assessments for reproductive toxicity.

  20. Framework for Shared Drinking Water Risk Assessment.

    SciTech Connect

    Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Tidwell, Vincent C.; Peplinski, William John; Mitchell, Roger; Binning, David; Meszaros, Jenny

    2017-01-01

    Central to protecting our nation's critical infrastructure is the development of methodologies for prioritizing action and supporting resource allocation decisions associated with risk-reduction initiatives. Toward this need a web-based risk assessment framework that promotes the anonymous sharing of results among water utilities is demonstrated. Anonymous sharing of results offers a number of potential advantages such as assistance in recognizing and correcting bias, identification of 'unknown, unknowns', self-assessment and benchmarking for the local utility, treatment of shared assets and/or threats across multiple utilities, and prioritization of actions beyond the scale of a single utility. The constructed framework was demonstrated for three water utilities. Demonstration results were then compared to risk assessment results developed using a different risk assessment application by a different set of analysts.

  1. Salivary Biomarkers for Caries Risk Assessment

    PubMed Central

    Guo, Lihong; Shi, Wenyuan

    2013-01-01

    Saliva contains various microbes and host biological components that could be used for caries risk assessment. This review focuses on the research topics that connect dental caries with saliva, including both the microbial and host components within saliva. PMID:23505756

  2. Framework for metals risk assessment [ Journal Article

    EPA Science Inventory

    This is a science-based document that describes basic principles that address the special attributes and behaviors of metals and metal compounds to be considered when assessing their human health and ecological risks.

  3. USE OF GENOMIC DATA IN RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    Use of Genomic Data in Risk Assessment
    John C. Rockett
    Reproductive Toxicology Division, National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory, Office of Research and Development, United States Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC 27711, USA<...

  4. USE OF GENOMIC DATA IN RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    Use of Genomic Data in Risk Assessment
    John C. Rockett
    Reproductive Toxicology Division, National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory, Office of Research and Development, United States Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC 27711, USA<...

  5. Framework for metals risk assessment [ Journal Article

    EPA Science Inventory

    This is a science-based document that describes basic principles that address the special attributes and behaviors of metals and metal compounds to be considered when assessing their human health and ecological risks.

  6. Assessing Risk with GASB Statement No. 3.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wood, Venita M.; Scott, Bob

    1987-01-01

    Discusses a Government Accounting Standards Board (GASB) publication designed to provide financial statement users with information to assess a government's actual and future deposit and investment market and credit risk. (MLF)

  7. Assessing Risk with GASB Statement No. 3.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wood, Venita M.; Scott, Bob

    1987-01-01

    Discusses a Government Accounting Standards Board (GASB) publication designed to provide financial statement users with information to assess a government's actual and future deposit and investment market and credit risk. (MLF)

  8. Risk Assessment Stability: A Revalidation Study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment Instrument

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schwalbe, Craig S.

    2009-01-01

    The actuarial method is the gold standard for risk assessment in child welfare, juvenile justice, and criminal justice. It produces risk classifications that are highly predictive and that may be robust to sampling error. This article reports a revalidation study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment instrument, an actuarial instrument for juvenile…

  9. Risk Assessment Stability: A Revalidation Study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment Instrument

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schwalbe, Craig S.

    2009-01-01

    The actuarial method is the gold standard for risk assessment in child welfare, juvenile justice, and criminal justice. It produces risk classifications that are highly predictive and that may be robust to sampling error. This article reports a revalidation study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment instrument, an actuarial instrument for juvenile…

  10. Assessing Your Board's Risk Tolerance

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Griswold, John S.; Jarvis, William F.

    2014-01-01

    In the wake of the financial crisis, trustees of many endowed nonprofit institutions realized that their portfolio was riskier than they thought and their own ability to tolerate loss wasn't as strong as they imagined. What can board and investment committee members do to improve their ability to assess their--and their institution's--capacity for…

  11. [Risk assessment in upper limb overload].

    PubMed

    Martinelli, R; Casilli, A; Fanelli, C; Pizzuti, S; Tarquini, M; Tobia, L; Paoletti, A

    2007-01-01

    One of the most important factors of the work-related musculoskeletal disorders of the upper extremities (WMSDs) is the biomechanical overload. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the possibility to predict the upper limb repetitive stress, according to risk assessment procedures. In order to this aim, we gathered clinical-anamnestic data and risk assessment considerations of a cohort of workers in a car industry.

  12. Risk assessment as standard work in design.

    PubMed

    Morrill, Patricia W

    2013-01-01

    This case study article examines a formal risk assessment as part of the decision making process for design solutions in high risk areas. The overview of the Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) tool with examples of its application in hospital building projects will demonstrate the benefit of those structured conversations. This article illustrates how two hospitals used FMEA when integrating operational processes with building projects: (1) adjacency decision for Intensive Care Unit (ICU); and (2) distance concern for handling of specimens from Surgery to Lab. Both case studies involved interviews that exposed facility solution concerns. Just-in-time studies using the FMEA followed the same risk assessment process with the same workshop facilitator involving structured conversations in analyzing risks. In both cases, participants uncovered key areas of risk enabling them to take the necessary next steps. While the focus of this article is not the actual design solution, it is apparent that the risk assessment brought clarity to the situations resulting in prompt decision making about facility solutions. Hospitals are inherently risky environments; therefore, use of the formal risk assessment process, FMEA, is an opportunity for design professionals to apply more rigor to design decision making when facility solutions impact operations in high risk areas. Case study, decision making, hospital, infection control, strategy, work environment.

  13. Risk Assessment in Child Sexual Abuse Cases

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Levenson, Jill S.; Morin, John W.

    2006-01-01

    Despite continuing improvements in risk assessment for child protective services (CPS) and movement toward actuarial prediction of child maltreatment, current models have not adequately addressed child sexual abuse. Sexual abuse cases present unique and ambiguous indicators to the investigating professional, and risk factors differ from those…

  14. FRAMEWORK FOR INORGANIC METALS RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    The EPA has prepared a framework to guide risk assessors in assessing human and ecological risks of inorganic metals. Metals and metal compounds have properties not generally encountered with organic chemicals. For example, metals are neither created nor destroyed by biological a...

  15. Threat Based Risk Assessment for Enterprise Networks

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2016-02-15

    Threat-Based Risk Assessment for Enterprise Networks Richard P. Lippmann and James F. Riordan Protecting enterprise networks requires... enterprises to make sure that risks from all current threats are addressed, many organizations adopt a best-practices approach by installing popular...effective when performed by skilled security practitioners who understand an enterprise network, can enumerate all threats and their likelihoods, and

  16. 2007 TOXICOLOGY AND RISK ASSESSMENT CONFERENCE

    EPA Science Inventory

    EPA has announced

    The 2007 Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference
    Cincinnati Marriott North, West Chester (Cincinnati), OH
    April 23- 26, 2007 - Click to register!

    The Annual Toxicology and Risk Ass...

  17. Risk Assessment in Finland: Theory and Practice

    PubMed Central

    Pääkkönen, Rauno

    2010-01-01

    The Finnish risk assessment practice is based on the Occupational Safety and Health (OSH) Act aiming to improve working conditions in order maintain the employees' work ability, and to prevent occupational accidents and diseases. In practice there are hundreds of risk assessment methods in use. A simple method is used in small and medium sized enterprises and more complex risk evaluation methods in larger work places. Does the risk management function in the work places in Finland? According to our experience something more is needed. That is, understanding of common and company related benefits of risk management. The wider conclusion is that commitment for risk assessment in Finland is high enough. However, in those enterprises where OSH management was at an acceptable level or above it, there were also more varied and more successfully accomplished actions to remove or reduce the risks than in enterprises, where OSH management was in lower level. In risk assessment it is important to process active technical prevention and exact communication, increase work place attraction and increase job satisfaction and motivation. Investments in OSH are also good business. Low absenteeism due to illness or accidents increases directly the production results by improved quality and quantity of the product. In general Finnish studies have consistently shown that the return of an invested euro is three to seven-old. In national level, according to our calculations the savings could be even 20% of our gross national product. PMID:22953157

  18. 2007 TOXICOLOGY AND RISK ASSESSMENT CONFERENCE

    EPA Science Inventory

    EPA has announced

    The 2007 Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference
    Cincinnati Marriott North, West Chester (Cincinnati), OH
    April 23- 26, 2007 - Click to register!

    The Annual Toxicology and Risk Ass...

  19. Risk assessment in Finland: theory and practice.

    PubMed

    Anttonen, Hannu; Pääkkönen, Rauno

    2010-09-01

    The Finnish risk assessment practice is based on the Occupational Safety and Health (OSH) Act aiming to improve working conditions in order maintain the employees' work ability, and to prevent occupational accidents and diseases. In practice there are hundreds of risk assessment methods in use. A simple method is used in small and medium sized enterprises and more complex risk evaluation methods in larger work places. Does the risk management function in the work places in Finland? According to our experience something more is needed. That is, understanding of common and company related benefits of risk management. The wider conclusion is that commitment for risk assessment in Finland is high enough. However, in those enterprises where OSH management was at an acceptable level or above it, there were also more varied and more successfully accomplished actions to remove or reduce the risks than in enterprises, where OSH management was in lower level. In risk assessment it is important to process active technical prevention and exact communication, increase work place attraction and increase job satisfaction and motivation. Investments in OSH are also good business. Low absenteeism due to illness or accidents increases directly the production results by improved quality and quantity of the product. In general Finnish studies have consistently shown that the return of an invested euro is three to seven-old. In national level, according to our calculations the savings could be even 20% of our gross national product.

  20. Uncertainty quantification in flood risk assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blöschl, Günter; Hall, Julia; Kiss, Andrea; Parajka, Juraj; Perdigão, Rui A. P.; Rogger, Magdalena; Salinas, José Luis; Viglione, Alberto

    2017-04-01

    Uncertainty is inherent to flood risk assessments because of the complexity of the human-water system, which is characterised by nonlinearities and interdependencies, because of limited knowledge about system properties and because of cognitive biases in human perception and decision-making. On top of the uncertainty associated with the assessment of the existing risk to extreme events, additional uncertainty arises because of temporal changes in the system due to climate change, modifications of the environment, population growth and the associated increase in assets. Novel risk assessment concepts are needed that take into account all these sources of uncertainty. They should be based on the understanding of how flood extremes are generated and how they change over time. They should also account for the dynamics of risk perception of decision makers and population in the floodplains. In this talk we discuss these novel risk assessment concepts through examples from Flood Frequency Hydrology, Socio-Hydrology and Predictions Under Change. We believe that uncertainty quantification in flood risk assessment should lead to a robust approach of integrated flood risk management aiming at enhancing resilience rather than searching for optimal defense strategies.

  1. Preoperative optimization and risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Nicholas, Joseph A

    2014-05-01

    Because most older adults with hip fractures require urgent surgical intervention, the preoperative medical evaluation focuses on the exclusion of the small number of contraindications to surgery, and rapid optimization of patients for operative repair. Although many geriatric fracture patients have significant chronic medical comorbidities, most patients can be safely stabilized for surgery with medical and orthopedic comanagement by anticipating a small number of common physiologic responses and perioperative complications. In addition to estimating perioperative risk, the team should focus on intravascular volume restoration, pain control, and avoidance of perioperative hypotension. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    2013-11-15

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary.

  3. MODELING EUTROPHICATION KINETICS IN RESERVOIR MICROCOSMS

    EPA Science Inventory

    This study addresses the question of how a general seasonal eutrophication model, WASP5, can handle daily phytoplankton and nutrient dynamics in perturbed microcosms for 1-to 2-week periods of time. It is intended to explore both the interpretative and the predictive capabilities...

  4. An automated image analysis system to measure and count organisms in laboratory microcosms.

    PubMed

    Mallard, François; Le Bourlot, Vincent; Tully, Thomas

    2013-01-01

    1. Because of recent technological improvements in the way computer and digital camera perform, the potential use of imaging for contributing to the study of communities, populations or individuals in laboratory microcosms has risen enormously. However its limited use is due to difficulties in the automation of image analysis. 2. We present an accurate and flexible method of image analysis for detecting, counting and measuring moving particles on a fixed but heterogeneous substrate. This method has been specifically designed to follow individuals, or entire populations, in experimental laboratory microcosms. It can be used in other applications. 3. The method consists in comparing multiple pictures of the same experimental microcosm in order to generate an image of the fixed background. This background is then used to extract, measure and count the moving organisms, leaving out the fixed background and the motionless or dead individuals. 4. We provide different examples (springtails, ants, nematodes, daphnia) to show that this non intrusive method is efficient at detecting organisms under a wide variety of conditions even on faintly contrasted and heterogeneous substrates. 5. The repeatability and reliability of this method has been assessed using experimental populations of the Collembola Folsomia candida. 6. We present an ImageJ plugin to automate the analysis of digital pictures of laboratory microcosms. The plugin automates the successive steps of the analysis and recursively analyses multiple sets of images, rapidly producing measurements from a large number of replicated microcosms.

  5. Chlorodifluoroacetic acid fate and toxicity to the macrophytes Lemna gibba, Myriophyllum spicatum, and Myriophyllum sibiricum in aquatic microcosms.

    PubMed

    Hanson, M L; Sibley, P K; Mabury, S A; Muir, D C; Solomon, K R

    2001-12-01

    Chlorodifluoroacetic acid (CDFA) is a novel haloacetic acid (HAA) and has been recently documented in aquatic systems. It is a suspected degradation product of the refrigerants 1,1,2-trichloro-1,1-difluoroethane (CFC-113) and 1-chloro-1,1-difluoroethane (HCFC-142b). Haloacetic acids can be phytotoxic, putatively acting through inhibition of the citric acid cycle. Replicate (n = 3) 12,000-L model aquatic ecosystems (microcosms) were dosed once at 0.5, 1, 5, and 20 mg/L of neutralized CDFA. Three microcosms served as controls. Each microcosm was stocked with eight individual apical shoots of both Myriophyllum spicatum and Myriophyllum sibiricum and sampled at regular intervals over a 42-d exposure period. The plants were assessed for the somatic endpoints of plant length, root growth, node number, and wet and dry mass and the biochemical endpoints of chlorophyll-a/b and carotenoid content as well as citric acid levels. The duckweed Lemna gibba was also introduced into these systems and monitored over a period of 14 d for wet/dry mass, plant/frond number, chlorophyll content, and growth rate. Concentrations of CDFA remained constant in the water column over the course of the fate investigation (241 d), indicating that this compound undergoes little, if any, degradation in aquatic systems. Results showed few statistically significant differences from controls for all three plant species with exposure to CDFA but no biologically relevant impacts. Overall, CDFA does not appear to pose any risk to these aquatic macrophytes at current environmental concentrations.

  6. Risk assessment Barter Island radar installation, Alaska

    SciTech Connect

    1995-05-05

    This document contains the baseline human health risk assessment and the ecological risk assessment (ERA) for the Barter Island Distant Early Warning (DEW) Line radar installation. Fourteen sites at the Barter Island radar installation underwent remedial investigations (RIS) during the summer of 1993. The presence of chemical contamination in the soil, sediments, and surface water at the installation was evaluated and reported in the Barter Island Remedial Investigation/Feasibility Study (RI/FS) United States Air Force 1994a. The analytical data reported in the RI/FS form the basis for the human health and ecological risk assessment. The primary contaminants of concern at the 14 sites are diesel and gasoline from past spills and/or leaks. The general location of the Barter Island radar installation is shown in Figure 1-1. The 14 sites investigated and the types of samples collected at each site are presented in Table 1-1. The purpose of the risk assessment is to evaluate the human and ecological health risks that may be associated with chemicals released to the environment at the 14 sites investigated during the RIs. The risk assessment characterizes the probability that measured concentrations of hazardous chemical substances will cause adverse effects in humans or the environment in the absence of remediation. The risk assessment will be used to determine if remediation (site cleanup) is necessary and also to rank sites for remedial action. Additionally, it will be used as a model for the risk assessment to be performed at the other DEW Line installations (Bullen Point, Oliktok Point, Point Lonely, Barrow Point, Wainwright, and Point Lay) and the Cape Lisburne radar installation. pg18. JMD.

  7. New Methodology for Rapid Seismic Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Melikyan, A. E.; Balassanian, S. Y.

    2002-05-01

    Seismic risk is growing worldwide and is, increasingly, a problem of developing countries. Along with growing urbanization future earthquakes will have more disastrous social and economic consequences. Seismic risk assessment and reduction are important goals for each country located in seismically active zone. For Armenia these goals are of primary importance because the results of studies carried out by Armenian NSSP for assessment of the losses caused by various types of disasters in Armenia had shown that earthquakes are the most disastrous hazard for Armenia. The strategy for seismic risk reduction in 1999 was adopted by the Government of Armenia as a high priority state program. The world experience demonstrates that for efficient response the rapid assessment of seismic losses is necessary. There are several state-of-the-art approaches for seismic risk assessment (Radius, Hazus, etc.). All of them required large amount of various input data, which is impossible to collect in many developing countries, in particular in Armenia. Taking into account this very serious problem existing for developing countries, as well as rapid seismic risk assessment need immediately after strong earthquake the author undertake the attempt to contribute into a new approach for rapid seismic risk assessment under the supervision of Prof. S. Balassanian. The analysis of numerous factors influencing seismic risk in Armenia shows that the following elements contribute most significantly to the possible losses: seismic hazard; density of population; vulnerability of structures. Proposed approach for rapid seismic risk assessment based on these three factors has been tested for several seismic events. These tests have shown that such approach might represent from 80 to 90 percent of real losses.

  8. A Tutorial on Probablilistic Risk Assessement and its Role in Risk-Informed Decision Making

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dezfuli, Homayoon

    2010-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews risk assessment and its role in risk-informed decision making. It includes information on probabilistic risk assessment, typical risk management process, origins of risk matrix, performance measures, performance objectives and Bayes theorem.

  9. General principles for risk assessment of living modified organisms: lessons from chemical risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Hill, Ryan A; Sendashonga, Cyrie

    2003-01-01

    Modern biotechnology has led to the development and use of Living Modified Organisms (LMOs) for agriculture and other purposes. Regulators at the national level are increasingly depending on risk assessment as a tool for assessing potential adverse effects of LMOs on the environment and human health. In addition, the Cartagena Protocol on Biosafety, an international agreement expected to enter into force in the near future, requires risk assessment as the basis for decision-making regarding import of some LMOs. While LMO risk assessment is relatively new, there are other risk assessment disciplines which have developed over longer time periods. The field of assessment of the environmental and human health risks of chemicals is particularly well developed, and is similar in application to LMO risk assessment. This paper aims to draw lessons for LMO risk assessment from the vast experience with chemical risk assessment. Seven general principles are outlined which should serve as a useful checklist to guide assessments of risks posed by LMOs.

  10. Probabalistic Risk Assessment of a Turbine Disk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carter, Jace A.; Thomas, Michael; Goswami, Tarun; Fecke, Ted

    Current Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) rotor design certification practices risk assessment using a probabilistic framework focused on only the life-limiting defect location of a component. This method generates conservative approximations of the operational risk. The first section of this article covers a discretization method, which allows for a transition from this relative risk to an absolute risk where the component is discretized into regions called zones. General guidelines were established for the zone-refinement process based on the stress gradient topology in order to reach risk convergence. The second section covers a risk assessment method for predicting the total fatigue life due to fatigue induced damage. The total fatigue life incorporates a dual mechanism approach including the crack initiation life and propagation life while simultaneously determining the associated initial flaw sizes. A microstructure-based model was employed to address uncertainties in material response and relate crack initiation life with crack size, while propagation life was characterized large crack growth laws. The two proposed methods were applied to a representative Inconel 718 turbine disk. The zone-based method reduces the conservative approaches, while showing effects of feature-based inspection on the risk assessment. In the fatigue damage assessment, the predicted initial crack distribution was found to be the most sensitive probabilistic parameter and can be used to establish an enhanced inspection planning.

  11. Biological Based Risk Assessment for Space Exploration

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cucinotta, Francis A.

    2011-01-01

    Exposures from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) - made up of high-energy protons and high-energy and charge (HZE) nuclei, and solar particle events (SPEs) - comprised largely of low- to medium-energy protons are the primary health concern for astronauts for long-term space missions. Experimental studies have shown that HZE nuclei produce both qualitative and quantitative differences in biological effects compared to terrestrial radiation, making risk assessments for cancer and degenerative risks, such as central nervous system effects and heart disease, highly uncertain. The goal for space radiation protection at NASA is to be able to reduce the uncertainties in risk assessments for Mars exploration to be small enough to ensure acceptable levels of risks are not exceeded and to adequately assess the efficacy of mitigation measures such as shielding or biological countermeasures. We review the recent BEIR VII and UNSCEAR-2006 models of cancer risks and their uncertainties. These models are shown to have an inherent 2-fold uncertainty as defined by ratio of the 95% percent confidence level to the mean projection, even before radiation quality is considered. In order to overcome the uncertainties in these models, new approaches to risk assessment are warranted. We consider new computational biology approaches to modeling cancer risks. A basic program of research that includes stochastic descriptions of the physics and chemistry of radiation tracks and biochemistry of metabolic pathways, to emerging biological understanding of cellular and tissue modifications leading to cancer is described.

  12. Assessing wildfire risks at multiple spatial scales

    Treesearch

    Justin Fitch

    2008-01-01

    In continuation of the efforts to advance wildfire science and develop tools for wildland fire managers, a spatial wildfire risk assessment was carried out using Classification and Regression Tree analysis (CART) and Geographic Information Systems (GIS). The analysis was performed at two scales. The small-scale assessment covered the entire state of New Mexico, while...

  13. Risk Assessment in the 21st Century

    EPA Science Inventory

    For the past ~50 years, risk assessment depended almost exclusively on animal testing for hazard identification and dose-response assessment. Originally sound and effective, with increasing dependence on chemical tools and the number of chemicals in commerce, this traditional app...

  14. Risk Assessment in the 21st Century

    EPA Science Inventory

    For the past ~50 years, risk assessment depended almost exclusively on animal testing for hazard identification and dose-response assessment. Originally sound and effective, with increasing dependence on chemical tools and the number of chemicals in commerce, this traditional app...

  15. OPPT workplan risk assessment Methylene Chloride ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    These assessments will focus on the use of DCM and NMP in paint stripping. NMP exposures scenarios for this use result in inhalation and dermal exposure to consumers and workers. The low concern for environmental effects of NMP will be discussed in the assessment. In the case of DCM, there are human health concerns for both cancer and non-cancer effects. This DCM assessment of paint stripping uses will focus only on inhalation exposure to consumers and workers. The low concern for environmental effects of DCM will be discussed in the assessment. EPA anticipates issuing draft risk assessments for public review and comment as they are completed. At the conclusion of the review process, if an assessment of specific uses indicates significant risk, EPA will evaluate and pursue appropriate risk reduction actions, as warranted. If an assessment indicates no significant risk, EPA will conclude its current work on assessment of those specified targeted uses of that chemical. Over time, additional chemicals will be added to the work plan as more data are developed and more chemicals screened.

  16. Blue print for building a risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Otsuki, H.K.; Eagan-McNeill, E.

    1997-05-01

    Federal and stet regulations require the operator of a miscellaneous waste treatment unit to demonstrate compliance with environmental performance standard. A sample risk assessment is demonstrated as a means of showing compliance for such a treatment unit. A new Open Burning and Open Detonation (OB/OD) facility for explosive wastes at LLNL experimental site is used. Simplified, the process of performing a risk assessment consists of characterization of the treatment operation and estimation of emission rates; evaluation of the emission dispersion to estimate acute exposure; and evaluation of human and environmental risks. Each step may require the environmental analysts to perform detained date gathering, modeling and calculations, and to negotiate with facility operations personnel and regulatory representatives. The Risk Assessment Protocol, which explains the assumptions, model selection and inputs, and data selection, must ultimately withstand the rigors of regulatory review and public scrutiny.s

  17. Hanford waste vitrification systems risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Miller, W.C.; Hamilton, D.W.; Holton, L.K.; Bailey, J.W.

    1991-09-01

    A systematic Risk Assessment was performed to identify the technical, regulatory, and programmatic uncertainties and to quantify the risks to the Hanford Site double-shell tank waste vitrification program baseline (as defined in December 1990). Mitigating strategies to reduce the overall program risk were proposed. All major program elements were evaluated, including double-shell tank waste characterization, Tank Farms, retrieval, pretreatment, vitrification, and grouting. Computer-based techniques were used to quantify risks to proceeding with construction of the Hanford Waste Vitrification Plant on the present baseline schedule. Risks to the potential vitrification of single-shell tank wastes and cesium and strontium capsules were also assessed. 62 refs., 38 figs., 26 tabs.

  18. Incorporating Nonchemical Stressors Into Cumulative Risk Assessments

    PubMed Central

    Rider, Cynthia V.; Dourson, Michael L.; Hertzberg, Richard C.; Mumtaz, Moiz M.; Price, Paul S.; Simmons, Jane Ellen

    2012-01-01

    The role of nonchemical stressors in modulating the human health risk associated with chemical exposures is an area of increasing attention. On 9 March 2011, a workshop titled “Approaches for Incorporating Nonchemical Stressors into Cumulative Risk Assessment” took place during the 50th Anniversary Annual Society of Toxicology Meeting in Washington D.C. Objectives of the workshop included describing the current state of the science from various perspectives (i.e., regulatory, exposure, modeling, and risk assessment) and presenting expert opinions on currently available methods for incorporating nonchemical stressors into cumulative risk assessments. Herein, distinct frameworks for characterizing exposure to, joint effects of, and risk associated with chemical and nonchemical stressors are discussed. PMID:22345310

  19. [Assessment of dynamic violent behavior risk factors].

    PubMed

    Folino, Jorge Oscar; Cáceres, María Soledad; Campos, María Laura; Silveri, Marina; Ucín, Silvana; Ascazibar, Mariel

    2005-01-01

    Dynamic violent behavior risk factors have special significance since they constitute the main target for preventive intervention. Different dynamic factors as well as violent recidivism were assessed with, among other instruments, the environmental risk (Risk Management) section of the Argentinean version of the HCR-20 in 25 parolees from the Province of Buenos Aires Penitentiary System. Among other findings, the prevalence of the risk factors linked to substance abuse and socioeconomic deprivation, and the heterogeneous perception of the official institutions are very significant. Exposure to destabilizers was the factor most associated with violent recidivism.

  20. New approaches for improving cardiovascular risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Paredes, Simão; Rocha, Teresa; Mendes, Diana; Carvalho, Paulo; Henriques, Jorge; Morais, João; Ferreira, Jorge; Mendes, Miguel

    2016-01-01

    Clinical guidelines recommend the use of cardiovascular risk assessment tools (risk scores) to predict the risk of events such as cardiovascular death, since these scores can aid clinical decision-making and thereby reduce the social and economic costs of cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, despite their importance, risk scores present important weaknesses that can diminish their reliability in clinical contexts. This study presents a new framework, based on current risk assessment tools, that aims to minimize these limitations. Appropriate application and combination of existing knowledge is the main focus of this work. Two different methodologies are applied: (i) a combination scheme that enables data to be extracted and processed from various sources of information, including current risk assessment tools and the contributions of the physician; and (ii) a personalization scheme based on the creation of patient groups with the purpose of identifying the most suitable risk assessment tool to assess the risk of a specific patient. Validation was performed based on a real patient dataset of 460 patients at Santa Cruz Hospital, Lisbon, Portugal, diagnosed with non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndrome. Promising results were obtained with both approaches, which achieved sensitivity, specificity and geometric mean of 78.79%, 73.07% and 75.87%, and 75.69%, 69.79% and 72.71%, respectively. The proposed approaches present better performances than current CVD risk scores; however, additional datasets are required to back up these findings. Copyright © 2015 Sociedade Portuguesa de Cardiologia. Published by Elsevier España. All rights reserved.

  1. Chromium valency response and environmental fate in three-phase aquatic microcosms. Master's thesis

    SciTech Connect

    Conway, M.F.

    1984-01-01

    Factors affecting the valency, solubility, transport, and biogeochemical fate of chromium in an aquatic environment were investigated and assessed utilizing a physical model. Three-phase, atmosphere-water-sediment, microcosms were utilized in a semi-continuous flow-through mode to model a river impoundment. Effects of varying chromium inputs on algal growth, sediment uptake rates, dissolved oxygen concentrations, chromium valency response, and ultimate fate of chromium were monitored. A concurrent study, conducted in an impoundment of the Naugatuck River in Thomaston, Connecticut, allowed field evaluation of responses observed in the microcosm models.

  2. TSCA Work Plan Chemical Risk Assessment: 1 ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    1-Bromopropane (CASRN 106-94-5): or 1-BP is a volatile organic chemical that is considered moderately persistent in the environment but does not have the potential to bioaccumulate in fish or other animals. The majority of the 1-BP production volume (~ 47%) is used as a vapor degreaser for optics electronics, plastics, and metals. 1-BP also is used as an aerosol solvent in cleaning products, as a spray fixative in arts and crafts, and as a spot cleaner in various industrial/commercial/consumer sectors. Focus of the Risk Assessment: The assessment will focus on uses of 1-BP in commercial (i.e., vapor degreasing, spray adhesives, and dry cleaning) and consumer applications (i.e., aerosol solvent cleaners and spray adhesives). Given the range of endpoints (i.e., cancer, non-cancer; the latter includes potential effects on the developing fetus), susceptible populations are expected to include adults (including pregnant women) in commercial uses and children (as bystanders) and adults of all ages (including pregnant women) for consumer uses. Thus, the assessment will focus on all humans/lifestages. EPA anticipates issuing draft risk assessments for public review and comment as they are completed. At the conclusion of the review process, if an assessment of specific uses indicates significant risk, EPA will evaluate and pursue appropriate risk reduction actions, as warranted. If an assessment indicates no significant risk, EPA will conclude its work on the a

  3. Ecological risk assessment of endocrine disruptors.

    PubMed Central

    Hutchinson, T H; Brown, R; Brugger, K E; Campbell, P M; Holt, M; Länge, R; McCahon, P; Tattersfield, L J; van Egmond, R

    2000-01-01

    The European Centre for Ecotoxicology and Toxicology of Chemicals proposes a tiered approach for the ecological risk assessment of endocrine disruptors, integrating exposure and hazard (effects) characterization. Exposure assessment for endocrine disruptors should direct specific tests for wildlife species, placing hazard data into a risk assessment context. Supplementing the suite of mammalian screens now under Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) validation, high priority should be given to developing a fish screening assay for detecting endocrine activity in oviparous species. Taking into account both exposure characterization and alerts from endocrine screening, higher tier tests are also a priority for defining adverse effects. We propose that in vivo mammalian and fish assays provide a comprehensive screening battery for diverse hormonal functions (including androgen, estrogen, and thyroid hormone), whereas Amphibia should be considered at higher tiers if there are exposure concerns. Higher tier endocrine-disruptor testing should include fish development and fish reproduction tests, whereas a full life-cycle test could be subsequently used to refine aquatic risk assessments when necessary. For avian risk assessment, the new OECD Japanese quail reproduction test guideline provides a valuable basis for developing a test to detecting endocrine-mediated reproductive effects; this species could be used, where necessary, for an avian life-cycle test. For aquatic and terrestrial invertebrates, data from existing developmental and reproductive tests remain of high value for ecological risk assessment. High priority should be given to research into comparative endocrine physiology of invertebrates to support data extrapolation to this diverse fauna. PMID:11102288

  4. TSCA Work Plan Chemical Risk Assessment: 1 ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    1-Bromopropane (CASRN 106-94-5): or 1-BP is a volatile organic chemical that is considered moderately persistent in the environment but does not have the potential to bioaccumulate in fish or other animals. The majority of the 1-BP production volume (~ 47%) is used as a vapor degreaser for optics electronics, plastics, and metals. 1-BP also is used as an aerosol solvent in cleaning products, as a spray fixative in arts and crafts, and as a spot cleaner in various industrial/commercial/consumer sectors. Focus of the Risk Assessment: The assessment will focus on uses of 1-BP in commercial (i.e., vapor degreasing, spray adhesives, and dry cleaning) and consumer applications (i.e., aerosol solvent cleaners and spray adhesives). Given the range of endpoints (i.e., cancer, non-cancer; the latter includes potential effects on the developing fetus), susceptible populations are expected to include adults (including pregnant women) in commercial uses and children (as bystanders) and adults of all ages (including pregnant women) for consumer uses. Thus, the assessment will focus on all humans/lifestages. EPA anticipates issuing draft risk assessments for public review and comment as they are completed. At the conclusion of the review process, if an assessment of specific uses indicates significant risk, EPA will evaluate and pursue appropriate risk reduction actions, as warranted. If an assessment indicates no significant risk, EPA will conclude its work on the a

  5. Risk assessment of mixed waste sites

    SciTech Connect

    Montague, D.F.; Holton, G.A.; King, C.M.

    1987-12-31

    As part of its ongoing efforts to ensure environmental regulation compliance at DOE facilities, DOE published on April 26, 1985, a notice of intent to write an Environmental Impact Statement on Waste Management Activities for Groundwater Protection (Groundwater EIS) at the Savannah River Plant (SRP). To perform a human health risk assessment of each waste site for each closure action considered, DuPont organized a project team led by personnel from the Savannah River Laboratory (SRL) and supported by outside contractors specializing in risk assessment work. As part of that team, JBF Associates, Inc. (JBFA) performed an atmospheric containment transport analysis and human health risk assessment of nonradioactive contaminants from SRP waste sites. For each waste site, three closure actions were examined: (1) excavate the site, backfill it, and cap it followed by regular groundwater monitoring (Option 1); (2) backfill and cap the site followed by regular groundwater monitoring (Option 2); and (3) no remedial action, regular groundwater monitoring, and some site maintenance work (Option 3). The human health risk assessment performed by JBFA estimated the public and worker risks from contaminants released to the atmosphere from each waste site for each closure option. This paper first presents the methodology JBFA used to estimate the public and worker risks attributable to the inhalation and ingestion of airborne, nonradioactive contaminants. Following the description of the analysis methodology, the authors present the risk results for the waste sites that were due to atmospherically released nonradioactive contaminants. Both worker risks and public risks are presented. Finally, the authors present the results and conclusions derived from their analysis of the risk from airborne, nonradioactive contaminants.

  6. Modeling food spoilage in microbial risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Koutsoumanis, Konstantinos

    2009-02-01

    In this study, I describe a systematic approach for modeling food spoilage in microbial risk assessment that is based on the incorporation of kinetic spoilage modeling in exposure assessment by combining data and models for the specific spoilage organisms (SSO: fraction of the total microflora responsible for spoilage) with those for pathogens. The structure of the approach is presented through an exposure assessment application for Escherichia coli O157:H7 in ground beef. The proposed approach allows for identifying spoiled products at the time of consumption by comparing the estimated level of SSO (pseudomonads) with the spoilage level (level of SSO at which spoilage is observed). The results of the application indicate that ignoring spoilage in risk assessment could lead to significant overestimations of risk.

  7. Postural risk assessment of mechanised firewood processing.

    PubMed

    Spinelli, Raffaele; Aminti, Giovanni; De Francesco, Fabio

    2017-03-01

    The study assessed the postural risk of mechanised firewood processing with eight machines, representing the main technology solutions available on the market. Assessment was conducted with the Ovako Working posture Analysis System (OWAS) on 1000 still frames randomly extracted from videotaped work samples. The postural risk associated with firewood processing was variable and associated with technology type. Simple, manually operated new machines incurred a higher postural risk compared with semi- or fully automatic machines. In contrast, new semi-automatic and automatic machines were generally free from postural risk. In all cases, attention should be paid to postural risk that may occur during blockage resolution. The study did not cover the postural risk of firewood processing sites as a whole. The study provided useful information for selecting firewood processing machinery and for improving firewood machinery design, as part of a more articulate strategy aimed at enhancing the safety of firewood processing work sites. Practitioner Summary: The postural risk associated with mechanised firewood processing (eg cutting and splitting) depends on the type of equipment. Postural risk is highest (OWAS Action Category 2) with new in-line machines, designed for operation by a single worker. Fully automatic machines present minimum postural risk, except during blockage resolution.

  8. NATIONAL-SCALE ASSESSMENT OF AIR TOXICS RISKS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The national-scale assessment of air toxics risks is a modeling assessment which combines emission inventory development, atmospheric fate and transport modeling, exposure modeling, and risk assessment to characterize the risk associated with inhaling air toxics from outdoor sour...

  9. Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund (RAGS) Volume III: Part A

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    EPA's Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund (RAGS) Volume 3A provides policies and guiding principles on the application of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methods to human health and ecological risk assessment in the EPA Superfund Program.

  10. NATIONAL-SCALE ASSESSMENT OF AIR TOXICS RISKS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The national-scale assessment of air toxics risks is a modeling assessment which combines emission inventory development, atmospheric fate and transport modeling, exposure modeling, and risk assessment to characterize the risk associated with inhaling air toxics from outdoor sour...

  11. Risk propensity assessment in military special operations.

    PubMed

    Sicard, B; Jouve, E; Blin, O

    2001-10-01

    Risk taking, decision making, and stress factors are strongly associated in military operations. The authors used the Bond and Lader mood and alertness scale and a new scale, Evaluation of Risks (EVAR), to assess risk proneness in a maritime counter-terrorism exercise. EVAR items are distributed among five factors: self-control, danger seeking, energy, impulsiveness, and invincibility. In the study, 10 pilots were submitted to strenuous night flights with limited sleep deprivation. Compared with baseline data, pilots reported an increase in impulsiveness, whereas EVAR factors were consistent in a control group composed of 9 navy crew member. Correlations were observed between mood and alertness and risk factors. These results illustrate how EVAR can be used to evaluate change in risk proneness in individuals submitted to various stressors. But further studies are required to weigh stress factors and environmental conditions in risk propensity with a larger population of various age and personality traits.

  12. Current Challenges in Neurotoxicity Risk Assessment ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Neurotoxicity risk assessment must continue to evolve in parallel with advances in basic research. Along with this evolution is an expansion in the scope of neurotoxicity assessments of environmental health risks. Examples of this expansion include an increasing emphasis on complex animal models that better replicate human behavior and a wider array of molecular and mechanistic data relevant to interpreting the underlying cause(s) of toxicity. However, modern neurotoxicology studies are often more nuanced and complicated than traditional studies, and they often vary considerably in evaluation methods from one study to the next, impeding comparisons. This can pose particular difficulties for risk assessors, especially given the recent demand for chemical risk assessments to be more systematic and transparent. This presentation will introduce and provide some examples of specific challenges in neurotoxicity assessments of environmental chemicals. Some of these challenges are relatively new to the field, such as the incorporation of data on neuron-supportive glial cells into hazard characterization, while other challenges have persisted for several decades, but only recently are studies being designed to evaluate them, including analyses of latent neurotoxicity. The examples provided illustrate some future research areas of interest for scientists and risk assessors examining human neurotoxicity risk. This abstract will be presented to internal U.S. Food and Drug A

  13. Current Challenges in Neurotoxicity Risk Assessment ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Neurotoxicity risk assessment must continue to evolve in parallel with advances in basic research. Along with this evolution is an expansion in the scope of neurotoxicity assessments of environmental health risks. Examples of this expansion include an increasing emphasis on complex animal models that better replicate human behavior and a wider array of molecular and mechanistic data relevant to interpreting the underlying cause(s) of toxicity. However, modern neurotoxicology studies are often more nuanced and complicated than traditional studies, and they often vary considerably in evaluation methods from one study to the next, impeding comparisons. This can pose particular difficulties for risk assessors, especially given the recent demand for chemical risk assessments to be more systematic and transparent. This presentation will introduce and provide some examples of specific challenges in neurotoxicity assessments of environmental chemicals. Some of these challenges are relatively new to the field, such as the incorporation of data on neuron-supportive glial cells into hazard characterization, while other challenges have persisted for several decades, but only recently are studies being designed to evaluate them, including analyses of latent neurotoxicity. The examples provided illustrate some future research areas of interest for scientists and risk assessors examining human neurotoxicity risk. This abstract will be presented to internal U.S. Food and Drug A

  14. ORAMUS(WINDOWS). Ozone Risk AssessMent Utilities

    SciTech Connect

    Whitfield, R.G.; Jusko, M.J.; Biller, W.F.

    1998-12-01

    ORAMUS is a user-friendly, menu-driven software system that calculates and displays user-selected risk estimates for health effects attributable to short-term exposure to tropospheric ozone. Inputs to the risk assessment are estimates of exposure to ozone and exposure-response relationships to produce overall risk estimates in the form of probability distributions. Three fundamental models are included: headcount risk, benchmark risk, and hospital admissions. Exposure-response relationships are based on results of controlled human exposure studies. Exposure estimates are based on the EPA`s probabilistic national ambient air quality standards (NAAQS) exposure model, pNEM/Osub3, which simulates air quality associated with attainment of alternative NAAQS. Using ORAMUS, risk results for 27 air quality scenarios, air quality in 9 urban areas, 33 health endpoints, and 4 chronic health endpoints can be calculated.

  15. ORAMUS(DOS). Ozone Risk AssessMent Utilities

    SciTech Connect

    Whitfield, R.G.; Jusko, M.J.; Biller, W.F.

    1998-12-01

    ORAMUS is a user-friendly, menu-driven software system that calculates and displays user-selected risk estimates for health effects attributable to short-term exposure to tropospheric ozone. Inputs to the risk assessment are estimates of exposure to ozone and exposure-response relationships to produce overall risk estimates in the form of probability distributions. Three fundamental models are included: headcount risk, benchmark risk, and hospital admissions. Exposure-response relationships are based on results of controlled human exposure studies. Exposure estimates are based on the EPA`s probabilistic national ambient air quality standards (NAAQS) exposure model, pNEM/Osub3, which simulates air quality associated with attainment of alternative NAAQS. Using ORAMUS, risk results for 27 air quality scenarios, air quality in 9 urban areas, 33 acute health endpoints, and 4 chronic health endpoints can be calculated.

  16. Update earthquake risk assessment in Cairo, Egypt

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Badawy, Ahmed; Korrat, Ibrahim; El-Hadidy, Mahmoud; Gaber, Hanan

    2017-07-01

    The Cairo earthquake (12 October 1992; m b = 5.8) is still and after 25 years one of the most painful events and is dug into the Egyptians memory. This is not due to the strength of the earthquake but due to the accompanied losses and damages (561 dead; 10,000 injured and 3000 families lost their homes). Nowadays, the most frequent and important question that should rise is "what if this earthquake is repeated today." In this study, we simulate the same size earthquake (12 October 1992) ground motion shaking and the consequent social-economic impacts in terms of losses and damages. Seismic hazard, earthquake catalogs, soil types, demographics, and building inventories were integrated into HAZUS-MH to produce a sound earthquake risk assessment for Cairo including economic and social losses. Generally, the earthquake risk assessment clearly indicates that "the losses and damages may be increased twice or three times" in Cairo compared to the 1992 earthquake. The earthquake risk profile reveals that five districts (Al-Sahel, El Basateen, Dar El-Salam, Gharb, and Madinat Nasr sharq) lie in high seismic risks, and three districts (Manshiyat Naser, El-Waily, and Wassat (center)) are in low seismic risk level. Moreover, the building damage estimations reflect that Gharb is the highest vulnerable district. The analysis shows that the Cairo urban area faces high risk. Deteriorating buildings and infrastructure make the city particularly vulnerable to earthquake risks. For instance, more than 90 % of the estimated buildings damages are concentrated within the most densely populated (El Basateen, Dar El-Salam, Gharb, and Madinat Nasr Gharb) districts. Moreover, about 75 % of casualties are in the same districts. Actually, an earthquake risk assessment for Cairo represents a crucial application of the HAZUS earthquake loss estimation model for risk management. Finally, for mitigation, risk reduction, and to improve the seismic performance of structures and assure life safety

  17. Update earthquake risk assessment in Cairo, Egypt

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Badawy, Ahmed; Korrat, Ibrahim; El-Hadidy, Mahmoud; Gaber, Hanan

    2016-12-01

    The Cairo earthquake (12 October 1992; m b = 5.8) is still and after 25 years one of the most painful events and is dug into the Egyptians memory. This is not due to the strength of the earthquake but due to the accompanied losses and damages (561 dead; 10,000 injured and 3000 families lost their homes). Nowadays, the most frequent and important question that should rise is "what if this earthquake is repeated today." In this study, we simulate the same size earthquake (12 October 1992) ground motion shaking and the consequent social-economic impacts in terms of losses and damages. Seismic hazard, earthquake catalogs, soil types, demographics, and building inventories were integrated into HAZUS-MH to produce a sound earthquake risk assessment for Cairo including economic and social losses. Generally, the earthquake risk assessment clearly indicates that "the losses and damages may be increased twice or three times" in Cairo compared to the 1992 earthquake. The earthquake risk profile reveals that five districts (Al-Sahel, El Basateen, Dar El-Salam, Gharb, and Madinat Nasr sharq) lie in high seismic risks, and three districts (Manshiyat Naser, El-Waily, and Wassat (center)) are in low seismic risk level. Moreover, the building damage estimations reflect that Gharb is the highest vulnerable district. The analysis shows that the Cairo urban area faces high risk. Deteriorating buildings and infrastructure make the city particularly vulnerable to earthquake risks. For instance, more than 90 % of the estimated buildings damages are concentrated within the most densely populated (El Basateen, Dar El-Salam, Gharb, and Madinat Nasr Gharb) districts. Moreover, about 75 % of casualties are in the same districts. Actually, an earthquake risk assessment for Cairo represents a crucial application of the HAZUS earthquake loss estimation model for risk management. Finally, for mitigation, risk reduction, and to improve the seismic performance of structures and assure life safety

  18. Effects of monensin on zooplankton communities in aquatic microcosms.

    PubMed

    Hillis, Derek G; Lissemore, Linda; Sibley, Paul K; Solomon, Keith R

    2007-09-15

    The effects of monensin, an antibiotic widely used in the poultry and beef industry, were evaluated on zooplankton community structure and population dynamics. Monensin was added to 12 000 L aquatic microcosms as a single treatment at concentrations ranging from 0.5 to 500 microg/L, and they were evaluated over a 50 day period. Changes in the zooplankton assemblage were evaluated by principal response curves (PRC), while changes in abundance and species richness were evaluated by analysis of variance (ANOVA). Monensin did not significantly affect community structure. However, significant changes within specific taxonomic groups were observed with decreases in the abundance of Rotifera and Copepoda nauplii and in the richness of Rotifera and Cladocera. Concentration-dependent increases in Ostracoda abundance were also observed. Changes in chlorophyll-a concentrations within the microcosms over the course of the study indicated that the changes in zooplankton populations were the indirect result of the effects of monensin on the algal community. Monensin concentrations measured in surface waters were 40 times lower than the determined no-observable effect concentration (NOEC) of 50 microg/L and do not likely present a risk to zooplankton.

  19. The MBA in Singapore: A Microcosm of Communication Training for Management

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rogers, Priscilla S.; Wong, Irene F. H.

    2005-01-01

    This study assesses communication training provided in MBA and executive MBA programs in Singapore. The authors found that Singapore is a microcosm in terms of (a) requirements for English competency, (b) the variety of communication offerings, and (c) the lack of uniformity in the delivery of communication training. Whereas Singaporean MBA/EMBA…

  20. Resource handbook on transportation risk assessment.

    SciTech Connect

    Chen, S. Y.; Biwer, B. M.; Monette, F. A.; Environmental Assessment; SNL; BAPL; USOE; Battelle Memorial Inst.

    2003-01-01

    This resource handbook contains useful information to streamline radioactive material transportation risk assessments for National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) documents prepared for U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) programs. Streamlining refers to instituting steps that can increase the efficiency of future assessments, reduce costs, and promote increased quality and consistency across the DOE complex. This handbook takes advantage of the wealth of information developed through decades of DOE's NEPA experience. It contains a review of historical assessments; a description of comprehensive and generally acceptable transportation risk assessment methodology (i.e., models); and a compilation of supporting data, parameters, and generally accepted assumptions. This handbook also includes a discussion paper that addresses cumulative impacts (Appendix A). The discussion paper illustrates the evolving and sometimes unresolved issues encountered in transportation risk assessment. Other topics, such as sabotage, environmental justice, and human factors, may be addressed in the future. This resource document was developed as the first primary reference book providing useful information for conducting transportation risk assessments for radioactive material in the NEPA context.

  1. Risk factors for and assessment of constipation.

    PubMed

    Chapman, Sherree; Hungerford, Catherine

    2015-04-01

    Constipation commonly occurs in older people, particularly in hospital or residential care settings, and leads to decreased quality of life and increased healthcare costs. Despite its frequency, however, nurses often overlook the condition. One possible reason for this may be the lack of appropriate tools or scales for nurses to assess risk factors for developing constipation. This article identifies, from the academic literature, 14 risk factors for developing constipation in older people. These factors are then considered in light of four common constipation assessment charts. The article concludes by arguing the need for more comprehensive assessment tools to, firstly, identify risk factors; and, secondly, support the implementation of appropriate preventative strategies that will enable better health outcomes for older people.

  2. Method and apparatus for assessing cardiovascular risk

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Albrecht, Paul (Inventor); Bigger, J. Thomas (Inventor); Cohen, Richard J. (Inventor)

    1998-01-01

    The method for assessing risk of an adverse clinical event includes detecting a physiologic signal in the subject and determining from the physiologic signal a sequence of intervals corresponding to time intervals between heart beats. The long-time structure of fluctuations in the intervals over a time period of more than fifteen minutes is analyzed to assess risk of an adverse clinical event. In a preferred embodiment, the physiologic signal is an electrocardiogram and the time period is at least fifteen minutes. A preferred method for analyzing the long-time structure variability in the intervals includes computing the power spectrum and fitting the power spectrum to a power law dependence on frequency over a selected frequency range such as 10.sup.-4 to 10.sup.-2 Hz. Characteristics of the long-time structure fluctuations in the intervals is used to assess risk of an adverse clinical event.

  3. Assessing patients' risk of febrile neutropenia: is there a correlation between physician-assessed risk and model-predicted risk?

    PubMed

    Lyman, Gary H; Dale, David C; Legg, Jason C; Abella, Esteban; Morrow, Phuong Khanh; Whittaker, Sadie; Crawford, Jeffrey

    2015-08-01

    This study evaluated the correlation between the risk of febrile neutropenia (FN) estimated by physicians and the risk of severe neutropenia or FN predicted by a validated multivariate model in patients with nonmyeloid malignancies receiving chemotherapy. Before patient enrollment, physician and site characteristics were recorded, and physicians self-reported the FN risk at which they would typically consider granulocyte colony-stimulating factor (G-CSF) primary prophylaxis (FN risk intervention threshold). For each patient, physicians electronically recorded their estimated FN risk, orders for G-CSF primary prophylaxis (yes/no), and patient characteristics for model predictions. Correlations between physician-assessed FN risk and model-predicted risk (primary endpoints) and between physician-assessed FN risk and G-CSF orders were calculated. Overall, 124 community-based oncologists registered; 944 patients initiating chemotherapy with intermediate FN risk enrolled. Median physician-assessed FN risk over all chemotherapy cycles was 20.0%, and median model-predicted risk was 17.9%; the correlation was 0.249 (95% CI, 0.179-0.316). The correlation between physician-assessed FN risk and subsequent orders for G-CSF primary prophylaxis (n = 634) was 0.313 (95% CI, 0.135-0.472). Among patients with a physician-assessed FN risk ≥ 20%, 14% did not receive G-CSF orders. G-CSF was not ordered for 16% of patients at or above their physician's self-reported FN risk intervention threshold (median, 20.0%) and was ordered for 21% below the threshold. Physician-assessed FN risk and model-predicted risk correlated weakly; however, there was moderate correlation between physician-assessed FN risk and orders for G-CSF primary prophylaxis. Further research and education on FN risk factors and appropriate G-CSF use are needed.

  4. Assessing patients’ risk of febrile neutropenia: is there a correlation between physician-assessed risk and model-predicted risk?

    PubMed Central

    Lyman, Gary H; Dale, David C; Legg, Jason C; Abella, Esteban; Morrow, Phuong Khanh; Whittaker, Sadie; Crawford, Jeffrey

    2015-01-01

    This study evaluated the correlation between the risk of febrile neutropenia (FN) estimated by physicians and the risk of severe neutropenia or FN predicted by a validated multivariate model in patients with nonmyeloid malignancies receiving chemotherapy. Before patient enrollment, physician and site characteristics were recorded, and physicians self-reported the FN risk at which they would typically consider granulocyte colony-stimulating factor (G-CSF) primary prophylaxis (FN risk intervention threshold). For each patient, physicians electronically recorded their estimated FN risk, orders for G-CSF primary prophylaxis (yes/no), and patient characteristics for model predictions. Correlations between physician-assessed FN risk and model-predicted risk (primary endpoints) and between physician-assessed FN risk and G-CSF orders were calculated. Overall, 124 community-based oncologists registered; 944 patients initiating chemotherapy with intermediate FN risk enrolled. Median physician-assessed FN risk over all chemotherapy cycles was 20.0%, and median model-predicted risk was 17.9%; the correlation was 0.249 (95% CI, 0.179−0.316). The correlation between physician-assessed FN risk and subsequent orders for G-CSF primary prophylaxis (n = 634) was 0.313 (95% CI, 0.135−0.472). Among patients with a physician-assessed FN risk ≥20%, 14% did not receive G-CSF orders. G-CSF was not ordered for 16% of patients at or above their physician’s self-reported FN risk intervention threshold (median, 20.0%) and was ordered for 21% below the threshold. Physician-assessed FN risk and model-predicted risk correlated weakly; however, there was moderate correlation between physician-assessed FN risk and orders for G-CSF primary prophylaxis. Further research and education on FN risk factors and appropriate G-CSF use are needed. PMID:25810005

  5. [Patient safety in antibiotics administration: Risk assessment].

    PubMed

    Maqueda Palau, M; Pérez Juan, E

    To determine the level of risk in the preparation and administration of antibiotics frequently used in the Intensive Care Unit using a risk matrix. A study was conducted using situation analysis and literature review of databases, protocols and good practice guidelines on intravenous therapy, drugs, and their administration routes. The most used antibiotics in the ICU registered in the ENVIN-HELICS program from 1 April to 30 June 2015 were selected. In this period, 257 patients received antimicrobial treatment and 26 antibiotics were evaluated. Variables studied: A risk assessment of each antibiotic using the scale Risk Assessment Tool, of the National Patient Safety Agency, as well as pH, osmolarity, type of catheter recommended for administration, and compatibility and incompatibility with other antibiotics studied. Almost two-thirds (65.3%) of antibiotics had more than 3 risk factors (represented by a yellow stripe), with the remaining 34.7% of antibiotics having between 0 and 2 risk factors (represented by a green stripe). There were no antibiotics with 6 or more risk factors (represented by a red stripe). Most drugs needed reconstitution, additional dilution, and the use of part of the vial to administer the prescribed dose. More than half of the antibiotics studied had a moderate risk level; thus measures should be adopted in order to reduce it. The risk matrix is a useful tool for the assessment and detection of weaknesses associated with the preparation and administration of intravenous antibiotics. Copyright © 2016 SECA. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  6. [Monitoring and risk assessment of campylobacter infections].

    PubMed

    Bartelt, E

    2004-08-01

    The aim of a national study of a "Quantitative Risk Assessment of Campylobacter infections and broiler chicken" at the Federal Institute for Risk Assessment is to estimate the chicken meat associated risk of Campylobacteriosis in Germany by using probabilistic models. Furthermore, process parameters (modelling parameters) with the most vital impact on the risk of Campylobacteriosis due to chicken meat have to be elaborated to give recommendations for risk management options in the whole food chain. The outcome of Joint FAO/WHO Expert Consultations on Risk Assessment of Microbiological Hazards in Foods (JEMRA) with respect to Campylobacter spp. in broiler chickens are the baseline for the national approach. In addition, national studies from Canada, Denmark and The Netherlands have to be considered. Typical regional data with respect to the disease, to risk factors in Germany and to the qualitative and quantitative occurrence of Campylobacter in broiler chickens along the "farm-to-fork" continuum have to be collected and validated for elaboration of the four elements of a risk assessment. Data on the prevalence of the agent at different stages of the food chain given in available surveillance systems in Germany are limited with respect to their suitability as incoming parameters for the models. A monitoring programme, as required in the Directive 2003/99/EC on the monitoring of zoonoses and zoonotic agents, as well as coordinated programmes for the official food control authorities, could improve the data baseline for risk assessment studies for instance. To collect all necessary information on the quantitative load of Camylobacter in broiler chickens will go beyond the scope of any existing or future monitoring systems. Results can only be achieved by detailed studies. Beside this, regional data on production and processing of broiler chicken, consumption data and information on the behaviour of consumers in households when preparing broiler chicken products are

  7. [Benefit-risk assessment of vaccination strategies].

    PubMed

    Hanslik, Thomas; Boëlle, Pierre Yves

    2007-04-01

    This article summarises the various stages of the risk/benefit assessment of vaccination strategies. Establishing the awaited effectiveness of a vaccination strategy supposes to have an epidemiologic description of the disease to be prevented. The effectiveness of the vaccine strategy will be thus expressed in numbers of cases, hospitalizations or deaths avoided. The effectiveness can be direct, expressed as the reduction of the incidence of the infectious disease in the vaccinated subjects compared to unvaccinated subjects. It can also be indirect, the unvaccinated persons being protected by the suspension in circulation of the pathogenic agent, consecutive to the implementation of the vaccination campaign. The risks of vaccination related to the adverse effects detected during the clinical trials preceding marketing are well quantified, but other risks can occur after marketing: e.g., serious and unexpected adverse effects detected by vaccinovigilance systems, or risk of increase in the age of cases if the vaccination coverage is insufficient. The medico-economic evaluation forms a part of the risks/benefit assessment, by positioning the vaccine strategy comparatively with other interventions for health. Epidemiologic and vaccinovigilance informations must be updated very regularly, which underlines the need for having an operational and reliable real time monitoring system to accompany the vaccination strategies. Lastly, in the context of uncertainty which often accompanies the risks/benefit assessments, it is important that an adapted communication towards the public and the doctors is planned.

  8. Recidivism Risk Assessment for Adult Sexual Offenders.

    PubMed

    Holoyda, Brian J; Newman, William J

    2016-02-01

    Sexual offending is a significant public health problem in the USA due to its prevalence and the substantial impact it has on victims, victims' families, and the legal and mental health systems. The assessment of sexual offender recidivism risk is an important aspect of developing effective management strategies for sexual offenders in terms of placement, treatment, and other interventions. Researchers have developed numerous tools to aid in the assessment of sexual violence recidivism risk, including actuarial measures, structured professional judgment methods, and psychophysiologic assessment of sexual interests. The Static-99R and Sexual Violence Risk-20 are two instruments that have received substantial research attention for their ability to accurately compare offenders' risk of recidivism to normative group data. Penile plethysmography and visual reaction time are used to evaluate subjects' responses to sexual stimuli in an effort to characterize offenders' sexual arousal and interest, respectively. Though current research has focused on risk assessment tools' predictive utility, future research will need to examine the impact that actuarial and structured professional judgment tools have on reducing recidivism if they are to have relevance in the management of sexual offenders.

  9. Health Risk Assessment of Chemical Mixtures | Science ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The implementation of Superfund requires a methodology for estimating health risk from multi-chemical contamination at ambient levels. Most often, the chemical composition of these mixtures is poorly characterized, exposure data are uncertain and toxicologic data on the known components of the mixture are limited. However, a potential human health hazard may exist and the U.S.EPA, state and local governments need to be able to assess the total hazard in order to make decisions on appropriate action. This report describes a procedure for assessing the risks from chemical mixtures that includes options when different kinds of data are available. Good-quality information on the mixture of concern or a similar mixture should always be used. Less desirable, but still useful approach, is to utilize data on components and their interactions. The quality of exposure and toxicity data must be determined and the uncertainties involved in each risk assessment must be thoroughly discussed. ater contamination is briefly discussed since it is of vital concern as the primary exposure medium for chemical mixtures. The methodology for estimating the human health risk from single chemicals, both carcinogens and systemic toxicants, is reviewed as it forms the basis for the assessment of mixtures. The Implementation of Superfund requires a methodology for estimating health risk from multi-chemical contamination at ambient levels. Most often, the chemical composition of these mix

  10. Assessment of health risks of policies

    SciTech Connect

    Ádám, Balázs; Molnár, Ágnes; Ádány, Róza; Bianchi, Fabrizio; Bitenc, Katarina; Chereches, Razvan; Cori, Liliana; Fehr, Rainer; Kobza, Joanna; Kollarova, Jana; and others

    2014-09-15

    The assessment of health risks of policies is an inevitable, although challenging prerequisite for the inclusion of health considerations in political decision making. The aim of our project was to develop a so far missing methodological guide for the assessment of the complex impact structure of policies. The guide was developed in a consensual way based on experiences gathered during the assessment of specific national policies selected by the partners of an EU project. Methodological considerations were discussed and summarized in workshops and pilot tested on the EU Health Strategy for finalization. The combined tool, which includes a textual guidance and a checklist, follows the top-down approach, that is, it guides the analysis of causal chains from the policy through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The tool discusses the most important practical issues of assessment by impact level. It emphasises the transparent identification and prioritisation of factors, the consideration of the feasibility of exposure and outcome assessment with special focus on quantification. The developed guide provides useful methodological instructions for the comprehensive assessment of health risks of policies that can be effectively used in the health impact assessment of policy proposals. - Highlights: • Methodological guide for the assessment of health risks of policies is introduced. • The tool is developed based on the experiences from several case studies. • The combined tool consists of a textual guidance and a checklist. • The top-down approach is followed through the levels of the full impact chain. • The guide provides assistance for the health impact assessment of policy proposals.

  11. Sensitivity analysis in quantitative microbial risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Zwieterin, M H; van Gerwen, S J

    2000-07-15

    The occurrence of foodborne disease remains a widespread problem in both the developing and the developed world. A systematic and quantitative evaluation of food safety is important to control the risk of foodborne diseases. World-wide, many initiatives are being taken to develop quantitative risk analysis. However, the quantitative evaluation of food safety in all its aspects is very complex, especially since in many cases specific parameter values are not available. Often many variables have large statistical variability while the quantitative effect of various phenomena is unknown. Therefore, sensitivity analysis can be a useful tool to determine the main risk-determining phenomena, as well as the aspects that mainly determine the inaccuracy in the risk estimate. This paper presents three stages of sensitivity analysis. First, deterministic analysis selects the most relevant determinants for risk. Overlooking of exceptional, but relevant cases is prevented by a second, worst-case analysis. This analysis finds relevant process steps in worst-case situations, and shows the relevance of variations of factors for risk. The third, stochastic analysis, studies the effects of variations of factors for the variability of risk estimates. Care must be taken that the assumptions made as well as the results are clearly communicated. Stochastic risk estimates are, like deterministic ones, just as good (or bad) as the available data, and the stochastic analysis must not be used to mask lack of information. Sensitivity analysis is a valuable tool in quantitative risk assessment by determining critical aspects and effects of variations.

  12. Pressure sore risk assessment in children.

    PubMed

    Waterlow, J A

    1997-07-01

    A multi-centred study was undertaken involving 300 children ranging from neonates to children aged 16 years. The purpose of the study was to investigate the possibility of designing a pressure sore risk assessment scoring system suitable for the paediatric area of care. It was found that the following conclusions can be drawn: (i) Children are at risk of developing pressure sores; (ii) A version of the adult Waterlow card was not appropriate, especially at the younger end of the scale; (iii) There are identifiable situations and treatments which do pose a risk of pressure sore development. Admission documentation and a care plan within a hospital policy is recommended as the best method of drawing nurses' attention to the risk factors involved and the measures which need to be taken to alleviate the risk of tissue damage.

  13. RISK ASSESSMENT FOR THE DYE AND PIGMENT ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This risk assessment calculates the maximum loadings of constituents found in dyes and pigment industries waste streams which can be disposed in different types of waste management units without causing health benchmarks to be exceeded at plausible receptor locations. The assessment focuses on potential risks from volatilization and leaching to groundwater of constituents disposed in surface impoundments and landfills with either clay liners or composite liners. This product will be used by EPA decision makers to assist in determining whether certain waste streams generated by the dyes and pigments industries should be designated as hazardous.

  14. Recording pressure ulcer risk assessment and incidence.

    PubMed

    Plaskitt, Anne; Heywood, Nicola; Arrowsmith, Michaela

    2015-07-15

    This article reports on the introduction of an innovative computer-based system developed to record and report pressure ulcer risk and incidence at an acute NHS trust. The system was introduced to ensure that all patients have an early pressure ulcer risk assessment, which prompts staff to initiate appropriate management if a pressure ulcer is detected, thereby preventing further patient harm. Initial findings suggest that this electronic process has helped to improve the timeliness and accuracy of data on pressure ulcer risk and incidence. In addition, it has resulted in a reduced number of reported hospital-acquired pressure ulcers.

  15. Atmospheric carbonyl sulfide exchange in bog microcosms

    SciTech Connect

    Fried, A.; Klinger, L.F.; Erickson, D.J. III )

    1993-01-22

    Measurements of Carbonyl sulfide (OCS) fluxes were carried out on bog microcosms using chamber sampling and tunable diode laser analysis. Intact bog microcosms (vascular plants, mosses, and peat) removed ambient levels of OCS in the light and dark with rates from [minus]2.4 to [minus]8.1 ng S min[sup [minus]1] m[sup [minus]2]. Peat and peat plus mosses emitted OCS in the light with rates of 17.4 and 10.9 ng S min[sup [minus]1] m[sup [minus]2], respectively. In the dark, the mosses apparently removed OCS at a rate equivalent to the peat emissions. A 3-D numerical tracer model using this data indicated that boreal bog ecosystems remove at most 1% of ambient OCS, not sufficient to account for an observed OCS depletion in boreal air masses. 13 refs., 1 fig., 1 tab.

  16. New method for assessing risks of email

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Raja, Seyyed H.; Afrooz, Farzad

    2013-03-01

    E-mail technology, has become one of the requirements of human lives for correspondence between individuals. Given this, the important point is that the messages, server and client of e-mail and correspondences that exchanged between different people have acceptable security, to make people sure to use of this technology. In the information age, many of financial and non financial transactions are done electronically, data exchange takes place via the internet and theft and manipulation of data can make exorbitant cost in terms of integrity, financial, political, economic and culture. E-mail correspondence in there is same and it is very important. With review took place, a method that will focus on email system for risks assessment is not provided. We are examining ways of assessing for other systems and their strengths and weaknesses, then we use Mr Convery method for assessing email risks which it is for assessing network risks. At the end of paper we have offered special table for email risk assessment.

  17. Application of geostatistics to risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Thayer, William C; Griffith, Daniel A; Goodrum, Philip E; Diamond, Gary L; Hassett, James M

    2003-10-01

    Geostatistics offers two fundamental contributions to environmental contaminant exposure assessment: (1) a group of methods to quantitatively describe the spatial distribution of a pollutant and (2) the ability to improve estimates of the exposure point concentration by exploiting the geospatial information present in the data. The second contribution is particularly valuable when exposure estimates must be derived from small data sets, which is often the case in environmental risk assessment. This article addresses two topics related to the use of geostatistics in human and ecological risk assessments performed at hazardous waste sites: (1) the importance of assessing model assumptions when using geostatistics and (2) the use of geostatistics to improve estimates of the exposure point concentration (EPC) in the limited data scenario. The latter topic is approached here by comparing design-based estimators that are familiar to environmental risk assessors (e.g., Land's method) with geostatistics, a model-based estimator. In this report, we summarize the basics of spatial weighting of sample data, kriging, and geostatistical simulation. We then explore the two topics identified above in a case study, using soil lead concentration data from a Superfund site (a skeet and trap range). We also describe several areas where research is needed to advance the use of geostatistics in environmental risk assessment.

  18. Microbiological risk assessment for personal care products.

    PubMed

    Stewart, S E; Parker, M D; Amézquita, A; Pitt, T L

    2016-12-01

    Regulatory decisions regarding microbiological safety of cosmetics and personal care products are primarily hazard-based, where the presence of a potential pathogen determines decision-making. This contrasts with the Food industry where it is a commonplace to use a risk-based approach for ensuring microbiological safety. A risk-based approach allows consideration of the degree of exposure to assess unacceptable health risks. As there can be a number of advantages in using a risk-based approach to safety, this study explores the Codex Alimentarius (Codex) four-step Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) framework frequently used in the Food industry and examines how it can be applied to the safety assessment of personal care products. The hazard identification and hazard characterization steps (one and two) of the Codex MRA framework consider the main microorganisms of concern. These are addressed by reviewing the current industry guidelines for objectionable organisms and analysing reports of contaminated products notified by government agencies over a recent 5-year period, together with examples of reported outbreaks. Data related to estimation of exposure (step three) are discussed, and examples of possible calculations and references are included. The fourth step, performed by the risk assessor (risk characterization), is specific to each assessment and brings together the information from the first three steps to assess the risk. Although there are very few documented uses of the MRA approach for personal care products, this study illustrates that it is a practicable and sound approach for producing products that are safe by design. It can be helpful in the context of designing products and processes going to market and with setting of microbiological specifications. Additionally, it can be applied reactively to facilitate decision-making when contaminated products are released on to the marketplace. Currently, the knowledge available may only allow a

  19. Anaerobic biotransformation of trichlorofluoroethene in groundwater microcosms

    SciTech Connect

    Vancheeswaran, S.; Semprini, L. . Dept. of Civil, Construction, and Environmental Engineering); Hyman, M.R. . Dept. of Microbiology)

    1999-06-15

    The biological reduction of trichlorofluoroethene (TCFE) was investigated in anaerobic groundwater microcosms. TCFE was reductively dehalogenated by microorganisms to produce three dichlorofluoroethene isomers, with cis-1,2-dichlorofluoroethene (c-DCFE) being the main isomer formed. Further sequential biological transformation of these compounds to mono-chlorofluoroethene isomers was incomplete and occurred at much slower rates. The rates of TCFE reduction were compared to the rates of reduction of two common chlorinated solvents, perchloroethene (PCE) and trichloroethene (TCE), when present at similar concentrations. Aqueous concentrations ranged from 7.0 to 14.0 mg/L for TCFE and from 7.5 to 15.0 mg/L for PCE and TCE. Similar rates of PCE and TCE transformation relative to TCFE were observed in single-compound tests (PCE, TCE, and TCFE in separate microcosms) and when the contaminants were present together as mixtures in the microcosms. The close similarities between the time course and kinetics of TCFE degradation and the degradation of both PCE and TCE, when present at comparable initial concentrations, suggest that TCFE could potentially be used as a benign reactive tracer to measure in-situ rates of PCE and TCE transformation in contaminated environments.

  20. Health effects of risk-assessment categories

    SciTech Connect

    Kramer, C.F.; Rybicka, K.; Knutson, A.; Morris, S.C.

    1983-10-01

    Environmental and occupational health effects associated with exposures to various chemicals are a subject of increasing concern. One recently developed methodology for assessing the health impacts of various chemical compounds involves the classification of similar chemicals into risk-assessment categories (RACs). This report reviews documented human health effects for a broad range of pollutants, classified by RACs. It complements other studies that have estimated human health effects by RAC based on analysis and extrapolation of data from animal research.

  1. Ecological risk assessment: implications of hormesis.

    PubMed

    van der Schalie, W H; Gentile, J H

    2000-01-01

    Hormesis is a widespread phenomenon across many taxa and chemicals, and, at the single species level, issues regarding the application of hormesis to human health and ecological risk assessment are similar. For example, convincing the public of a 'beneficial' effect of environmental chemicals may be problematic, and the design and analysis of laboratory studies may require modifications to detect hormesis. However, interpreting the significance of hormesis for even a single species in an ecological risk assessment can be complicated by considerations of competition with other species, predation effects, etc. Ecological risk assessments involve more than a single species; they may involve communities of hundreds or thousands of species as well as a range of ecological processes. Applying hormetic adjustments to threshold effect levels for chemicals derived from sensitivity distributions for a large number of species is impractical. For ecological risks, chemical stressors are frequently of lessor concern than physical stressors such as habitat alteration or biological stressors such as introduced species, but the relevance of hormesis to non-chemical stressors is unclear. Although ecological theories such as the intermediate disturbance hypothesis offer some intriguing similarities between chemical hormesis and hormetic-like responses resulting from physical disturbances, mechanistic explanations are lacking. Further exploration of the relevance of hormesis to ecological risk assessment is desirable. Aspects deserving additional attention include developing a better understanding of the hormetic effects of chemical mixtures, the relevance of hormesis to physical and biological stressors and the development of criteria for determining when hormesis is likely to be relevant to ecological risk assessments.

  2. Ecosystem services as assessment endpoints for ecological risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Munns, Wayne R; Rea, Anne W; Suter, Glenn W; Martin, Lawrence; Blake-Hedges, Lynne; Crk, Tanja; Davis, Christine; Ferreira, Gina; Jordan, Steve; Mahoney, Michele; Barron, Mace G

    2016-07-01

    Ecosystem services are defined as the outputs of ecological processes that contribute to human welfare or have the potential to do so in the future. Those outputs include food and drinking water, clean air and water, and pollinated crops. The need to protect the services provided by natural systems has been recognized previously, but ecosystem services have not been formally incorporated into ecological risk assessment practice in a general way in the United States. Endpoints used conventionally in ecological risk assessment, derived directly from the state of the ecosystem (e.g., biophysical structure and processes), and endpoints based on ecosystem services serve different purposes. Conventional endpoints are ecologically important and susceptible entities and attributes that are protected under US laws and regulations. Ecosystem service endpoints are a conceptual and analytical step beyond conventional endpoints and are intended to complement conventional endpoints by linking and extending endpoints to goods and services with more obvious benefit to humans. Conventional endpoints can be related to ecosystem services even when the latter are not considered explicitly during problem formulation. To advance the use of ecosystem service endpoints in ecological risk assessment, the US Environmental Protection Agency's Risk Assessment Forum has added generic endpoints based on ecosystem services (ES-GEAE) to the original 2003 set of generic ecological assessment endpoints (GEAEs). Like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are defined by an entity and an attribute. Also like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are broadly described and will need to be made specific when applied to individual assessments. Adoption of ecosystem services as a type of assessment endpoint is intended to improve the value of risk assessment to environmental decision making, linking ecological risk to human well-being, and providing an improved means of communicating those risks. Integr Environ Assess Manag

  3. Exploring the uncertainties in cancer risk assessment using the integrated probabilistic risk assessment (IPRA) approach.

    PubMed

    Slob, Wout; Bakker, Martine I; Biesebeek, Jan Dirk Te; Bokkers, Bas G H

    2014-08-01

    Current methods for cancer risk assessment result in single values, without any quantitative information on the uncertainties in these values. Therefore, single risk values could easily be overinterpreted. In this study, we discuss a full probabilistic cancer risk assessment approach in which all the generally recognized uncertainties in both exposure and hazard assessment are quantitatively characterized and probabilistically evaluated, resulting in a confidence interval for the final risk estimate. The methodology is applied to three example chemicals (aflatoxin, N-nitrosodimethylamine, and methyleugenol). These examples illustrate that the uncertainty in a cancer risk estimate may be huge, making single value estimates of cancer risk meaningless. Further, a risk based on linear extrapolation tends to be lower than the upper 95% confidence limit of a probabilistic risk estimate, and in that sense it is not conservative. Our conceptual analysis showed that there are two possible basic approaches for cancer risk assessment, depending on the interpretation of the dose-incidence data measured in animals. However, it remains unclear which of the two interpretations is the more adequate one, adding an additional uncertainty to the already huge confidence intervals for cancer risk estimates. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

  4. Ecosystem services in risk assessment and management. ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The ecosystem services (ES) concept holds much promise for environmental decision making. Even so, the concept has yet to gain full traction in the decisions and policies of environmental agencies in the United States, Europe, and elsewhere. Here we examine the opportunities for and implications of including ES in risk assessments and the risk management decisions that they inform. We assert that use of ES will: 1) lead to more comprehensive environmental protection; 2) help to articulate the benefits of environmental decisions, policies, and actions; 3) better inform the derivation of environmental quality standards; 4) enable integration of human health and ecological risk assessment; and 5) facilitate horizontal integration of policies, regulations, and programs. We provide the technical basis and supporting rationale for each assertion, relying on examples taken from experiences in the United States and European Union. Specific recommendations are offered for use of ES in risk assessment and risk management, and issues and challenges to advancing use of ES are described along with some of the science needed to improve the value of the ES concept to environmental protection. This paper is one of 4 papers generated from the 2014 Pellston Workshop “Ecosystem Services, Environmental Stressors and Decision Making,” organized jointly by the Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry and the Ecological Society of America. The main workshop objective was

  5. CUMULATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT FOR QUANTITATIVE RESPONSE DATA

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Relative Potency Factor approach (RPF) is used to normalize and combine different toxic potencies among a group of chemicals selected for cumulative risk assessment. The RPF method assumes that the slopes of the dose-response functions are all equal; but this method depends o...

  6. Methodology for qualitative urban flooding risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Leitão, João P; Almeida, Maria do Céu; Simões, Nuno E; Martins, André

    2013-01-01

    Pluvial or surface flooding can cause significant damage and disruption as it often affects highly urbanised areas. Therefore it is essential to accurately identify consequences and assess the risks associated with such phenomena. The aim of this study is to present the results and investigate the applicability of a qualitative flood risk assessment methodology in urban areas. This methodology benefits from recent developments in urban flood modelling, such as the dual-drainage modelling concept, namely one-dimensional automatic overland flow network delineation tools (e.g. AOFD) and 1D/1D models incorporating both surface and sewer drainage systems. To assess flood risk, the consequences can be estimated using hydraulic model results, such as water velocities and water depth results; the likelihood was estimated based on the return period of historical rainfall events. To test the methodology two rainfall events with return periods of 350 and 2 years observed in Alcântara (Lisbon, Portugal) were used and three consequence dimensions were considered: affected public transportation services, affected properties and pedestrian safety. The most affected areas in terms of flooding were easily identified; the presented methodology was shown to be easy to implement and effective to assess flooding risk in urban areas, despite the common difficulties in obtaining data.

  7. Risk Assessment with Adolescent Sex Offenders

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Christodoulides, T. E.; Richardson, G.; Graham, F.; Kennedy, P. J.; Kelly, T. P.

    2005-01-01

    The paper describes an evaluation of a risk assessment tool's effectiveness in distinguishing adolescent sexual offenders who had committed further sexual offences from those who had not. The sample consisted of 50 male adolescent sexual offenders referred to a forensic outpatient service within a healthcare setting. The adolescents within the…

  8. AXES OF EXTRAPOLATION IN RISK ASSESSMENTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Extrapolation in risk assessment involves the use of data and information to estimate or predict something that has not been measured or observed. Reasons for extrapolation include that the number of combinations of environmental stressors and possible receptors is too large to c...

  9. ECOTOXICOLOGY AND RISK ASSESSMENT FOR WETLANDS

    EPA Science Inventory

    This volume represents the proceedings of a workshop held from 30 July-3 August 1995 at Fairmont Hot Springs, Montana. The workshop was designed to meet the scientific and regulatory need for current information describing ecotoxicology and risk assessment for wetlands. Professio...

  10. Soil Erosion Risk Assessment and Modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fister, Wolfgang; Kuhn, Nikolaus J.; Heckrath, Goswin

    2013-04-01

    Soil erosion is a phenomenon with relevance for many research topics in the geosciences. Consequently, PhD students with many different backgrounds are exposed to soil erosion related questions during their research. These students require a compact, but detailed introduction to erosion processes, the risks associated with erosion, but also tools to assess and study erosion related questions ranging from a simple risk assessment to effects of climate change on erosion-related effects on geochemistry on various scales. The PhD course on Soil Erosion Risk Assessment and Modelling offered by the University of Aarhus and conducted jointly with the University of Basel is aimed at graduate students with degrees in the geosciences and a PhD research topic with a link to soil erosion. The course offers a unique introduction to erosion processes, conventional risk assessment and field-truthing of results. This is achieved by combing lectures, mapping, erosion experiments, and GIS-based erosion modelling. A particular mark of the course design is the direct link between the results of each part of the course activities. This ensures the achievement of a holistic understanding of erosion in the environment as a key learning outcome.

  11. CUMULATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT FOR QUANTITATIVE RESPONSE DATA

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Relative Potency Factor approach (RPF) is used to normalize and combine different toxic potencies among a group of chemicals selected for cumulative risk assessment. The RPF method assumes that the slopes of the dose-response functions are all equal; but this method depends o...

  12. AXES OF EXTRAPOLATION IN RISK ASSESSMENTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Extrapolation in risk assessment involves the use of data and information to estimate or predict something that has not been measured or observed. Reasons for extrapolation include that the number of combinations of environmental stressors and possible receptors is too large to c...

  13. QUANTITATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT FOR MICROBIAL AGENTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Compared to chemical risk assessment, the process for microbial agents and infectious disease is more complex because of host factors and the variety of settings in which disease transmission can occur. While the National Academy of Science has established a paradigm for performi...

  14. Computational Toxicology in Cancer Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    Risk assessment over the last half century has, for many individual cases served us well, but has proceeded on an extremely slow pace and has left us with considerable uncertainty. There are certainly thousands of compounds and thousands of exposure scenarios that remain unteste...

  15. An approach to security risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Engells, Thomas E

    2012-01-01

    Use of a brief survey instrument described in this article can be a useful means of obtaining actionable information in regards to risk assessment and crime prevention, the author points out. The survey yields data that assists in the prioritization of effort that can enhance the impact of a limited pool of qualified specialists.

  16. TOXICOGENOMICS AND HUMAN DISEASE RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory


    Toxicogenomics and Human Disease Risk Assessment.

    Complete sequencing of human and other genomes, availability of large-scale gene
    expression arrays with ever-increasing numbers of genes displayed, and steady
    improvements in protein expression technology can hav...

  17. QUANTITATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT FOR MICROBIAL AGENTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Compared to chemical risk assessment, the process for microbial agents and infectious disease is more complex because of host factors and the variety of settings in which disease transmission can occur. While the National Academy of Science has established a paradigm for performi...

  18. Bayesian Networks for enterprise risk assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bonafede, C. E.; Giudici, P.

    2007-08-01

    According to different typologies of activity and priority, risks can assume diverse meanings and it can be assessed in different ways. Risk, in general, is measured in terms of a probability combination of an event (frequency) and its consequence (impact). To estimate the frequency and the impact (severity) historical data or expert opinions (either qualitative or quantitative data) are used. Moreover, qualitative data must be converted in numerical values or bounds to be used in the model. In the case of enterprise risk assessment the considered risks are, for instance, strategic, operational, legal and of image, which many times are difficult to be quantified. So in most cases only expert data, gathered by scorecard approaches, are available for risk analysis. The Bayesian Networks (BNs) are a useful tool to integrate different information and in particular to study the risk's joint distribution by using data collected from experts. In this paper we want to show a possible approach for building a BN in the particular case in which only prior probabilities of node states and marginal correlations between nodes are available, and when the variables have only two states.

  19. Simulation modeling for microbial risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Cassin, M H; Paoli, G M; Lammerding, A M

    1998-11-01

    Quantitative microbial risk assessment implies an estimation of the probability and impact of adverse health outcomes due to microbial hazards. In the case of food safety, the probability of human illness is a complex function of the variability of many parameters that influence the microbial environment, from the production to the consumption of a food. The analytical integration required to estimate the probability of foodborne illness is intractable in all but the simplest of models. Monte Carlo simulation is an alternative to computing analytical solutions. In some cases, a risk assessment may be commissioned to serve a larger purpose than simply the estimation of risk. A Monte Carlo simulation can provide insights into complex processes that are invaluable, and otherwise unavailable, to those charged with the task of risk management. Using examples from a farm-to-fork model of the fate of Escherichia coli O157:H7 in ground beef hamburgers, this paper describes specifically how such goals as research prioritization, risk-based characterization of control points, and risk-based comparison of intervention strategies can be objectively achieved using Monte Carlo simulation.

  20. The NASA Space Radiobiology Risk Assessment Project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cucinotta, Francis A.; Huff, Janice; Ponomarev, Artem; Patel, Zarana; Kim, Myung-Hee

    The current first phase (2006-2011) has the three major goals of: 1) optimizing the conventional cancer risk models currently used based on the double-detriment life-table and radiation quality functions; 2) the integration of biophysical models of acute radiation syndromes; and 3) the development of new systems radiation biology models of cancer processes. The first-phase also includes continued uncertainty assessment of space radiation environmental models and transport codes, and relative biological effectiveness factors (RBE) based on flight data and NSRL results, respectively. The second phase of the (2012-2016) will: 1) develop biophysical models of central nervous system risks (CNS); 2) achieve comphrensive systems biology models of cancer processes using data from proton and heavy ion studies performed at NSRL; and 3) begin to identify computational models of biological countermeasures. Goals for the third phase (2017-2021) include: 1) the development of a systems biology model of cancer risks for operational use at NASA; 2) development of models of degenerative risks, 2) quantitative models of counter-measure impacts on cancer risks; and 3) indiviudal based risk assessments. Finally, we will support a decision point to continue NSRL research in support of NASA's exploration goals beyond 2021, and create an archival of NSRL research results for continued analysis. Details on near term goals, plans for a WEB based data resource of NSRL results, and a space radiation Wikepedia are described.

  1. exLOPA for explosion risks assessment.

    PubMed

    Markowski, Adam S

    2007-04-11

    The European Union regulations require safety and health protection of workers who are potentially at risk from explosive atmosphere areas. According to the requirements, the operators of installations where potentially explosive atmosphere can occur are obliged to produce an explosion protection document. The key objective of this document is the assessment of explosion risks. This paper is concerned with the so-called explosion layer of protection analysis (exLOPA), which allows for semi-quantitative explosion risk assessment for process plants where explosive atmospheres occur. The exLOPA is based on the original work of CCPS for LOPA but takes into account some typical factors appropriate for explosion, like the probability that an explosive atmosphere will occur, probability that sources of ignition will be present and become effective as well as the probability of failure on demand for appropriate explosion prevention and mitigation means.

  2. Statistics for risk assessment of chemical carcinogens.

    PubMed

    Chen, James J; Chen, Yi-Ju; Cheng, Kuang Fu

    2007-01-01

    Risk assessment is a scientific process of evaluation of potential health risks of chemical exposures to humans from available information. It involves analysis of the relationship between exposure and health related outcomes to derive an allowable exposure level. Because of lack of human exposure data, the major source of information for studying potential health effects of chemicals on humans is generally obtained from animal dose response experiments. Animal data are often evaluated in two aspects via statistical analysis: qualitative testing and quantitative estimation. The qualitative testing is to determine if the chemical causes an adverse health effect, i.e., if there is a statistically significant difference between treated and control animals. Quantitative estimation involves fitting a dose-response model to derive an allowable exposure level for humans. This paper reviews statistical principles and procedures for qualitative and quantitative approaches to human risk assessment.

  3. RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENTS | Science Inventory | US ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Each source category previously subjected to a technology-based standard will be examined to determine if health or ecological risks are significant enough to warrant further regulation. These assesments utilize existing models and data bases to examine the multi-media and multi-pollutant impacts of air toxics emissions on human health and the environment. Details on the assessment process and methodologies can be found in EPA's Residual Risk Report to Congress issued in March of 1999 (see web site). To assess the health risks imposed by sources of air toxics emissions, on a source category basis, to determine if control technology standards previously established for that source category are adequately protecting public health.

  4. Transparent Global Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smolka, Anselm; Schneider, John; Pinho, Rui; Crowley, Helen

    2013-04-01

    Vulnerability to earthquakes is increasing, yet advanced reliable risk assessment tools and data are inaccessible to most, despite being a critical basis for managing risk. Also, there are few, if any, global standards that allow us to compare risk between various locations. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is a unique collaborative effort that aims to provide organizations and individuals with tools and resources for transparent assessment of earthquake risk anywhere in the world. By pooling data, knowledge and people, GEM acts as an international forum for collaboration and exchange, and leverages the knowledge of leading experts for the benefit of society. Sharing of data and risk information, best practices, and approaches across the globe is key to assessing risk more effectively. Through global projects, open-source IT development and collaborations with more than 10 regions, leading experts are collaboratively developing unique global datasets, best practice, open tools and models for seismic hazard and risk assessment. Guided by the needs and experiences of governments, companies and citizens at large, they work in continuous interaction with the wider community. A continuously expanding public-private partnership constitutes the GEM Foundation, which drives the collaborative GEM effort. An integrated and holistic approach to risk is key to GEM's risk assessment platform, OpenQuake, that integrates all above-mentioned contributions and will become available towards the end of 2014. Stakeholders worldwide will be able to calculate, visualise and investigate earthquake risk, capture new data and to share their findings for joint learning. Homogenized information on hazard can be combined with data on exposure (buildings, population) and data on their vulnerability, for loss assessment around the globe. Furthermore, for a true integrated view of seismic risk, users can add social vulnerability and resilience indices to maps and estimate the costs and benefits

  5. Microcosm investigations of phthalate behaviour in sewage treatment biofilms.

    PubMed

    Oliver, Roly; May, Eric; Williams, John

    2007-01-01

    Discharge from sewage works has been shown to be an important source of phthalates into the environment which is of major concern because some are toxic, suspected endocrine disruptors and recalcitrant. Laboratory trickle filter microcosms (continuous and re-circulating flow) were constructed and operated to investigate the biodegradation and adsorption of phthalates and also to isolate phthalate degrading microorganisms. It was found that adsorption was critical for the removal of both DEP (77.5%) and DEHP (55.7%) in continuous flow microcosms. The proportion of phthalates removed by biodegradation in the continuous flow microcosms was estimated. Re-circulating flow microcosms improved the removal of DEHP compared to continuous flow microcosms. Microcosm biofilm used for an enrichment culture on phthalate media isolated a varied group of microbes including Gram negative and Gram positive bacteria, yeasts and fungi. Bacteria species with all the necessary enzymes to degrade phthalic acid were isolated.

  6. New approaches in human health risk assessment

    PubMed Central

    Abass, Khaled; Carlsen, Anders; Rautio, Arja

    2016-01-01

    Studies on the precise impact of environmental pollutants on human health are difficult to undertake and interpret, because many genetic and environmental factors influence health at the same time and to varying degrees. Our chapter in the AMAP report was based on new approaches to describe risks and future needs. In this paper, we will introduce the issues associated with risk assessment of single chemicals, and present suggestions for future studies as well as a summary of lessons learned during the health-related parts of the European Union-funded FP7 project ArcRisk (Arctic Health Risks: Impacts on health in the Arctic and Europe owing to climate-induced changes in contaminant cycling, 2009–2014; www.arcrisk.eu). PMID:27974141

  7. Behavioral toxicology, risk assessment, and chlorinated hydrocarbons.

    PubMed Central

    Evangelista de Duffard, A M; Duffard, R

    1996-01-01

    Behavioral end points are being used with greater frequency in neurotoxicology to detect and characterize the adverse effects of chemicals on the nervous system. Behavioral measures are particularly important for neurotoxicity risk assessment since many known neurotoxicants do not result in neuropathology. The chlorinated hydrocarbon class consists of a wide variety of chemicals including polychlorinated biphenyls, clioquinol, trichloroethylene, hexachlorophene, organochlorine insecticides (DDT, dicofol, chlordecone,dieldrin, and lindane), and phenoxyherbicides. Each of these chemicals has effects on motor, sensory, or cognitive function that are detectable using functional measures such as behavior. Furthermore, there is evidence that if exposure occurs during critical periods of development, many of the chlorinated hydrocarbons are developmental neurotoxicants. Developmental neurotoxicity is frequently expressed as alterations in motor function or cognitive abilities or changes in the ontogeny of sensorimotor reflexes. Neurotoxicity risk assessment should include assessments of the full range of possible neurotoxicological effects, including both structural and functional indicators of neurotoxicity. PMID:9182042

  8. Behavioral toxicology, risk assessment, and chlorinated hydrocarbons

    SciTech Connect

    Evangelista de Duffard, A.M.; Duffard, R.

    1996-04-01

    Behavioral end points are being used with greater frequency in neurotoxicology to detect and characterize the adverse effects of chemicals on the nervous system. Behavioral measures are particularly important for neurotoxicity risk assessment since many known neurotoxicants do not result in neuropathology. The chlorinated hydrocarbon class consists of a wide variety of chemicals including polychlorinated biphenyls, clioquinol, trichloroethylene, hexachlorophene, organochlorine insecticides (DDT, dicofol, chlordecone, dieldrin, and lindane), and phenoxyherbicides. Each of these chemicals has effects on motor, sensory, or cognitive function that are detectable using functional measures such as behavior. Furthermore, there is evidence that if exposure occurs during critical periods of development, many of the chlorinated hydrocarbons are developmental neurotoxicants. Developmental neurotoxicity is frequently expressed as alterations in motor function or cognitive abilities or charges in the ontogeny of sensorimotor reflexes. Neurotoxicity risk assessment should include assessments of the full range of possible neurotoxicological effects, including both structural and functional indicators of neurotoxicity. 121 refs., 1 tab.

  9. Seismic Risk Assessment for the Kyrgyz Republic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pittore, Massimiliano; Sousa, Luis; Grant, Damian; Fleming, Kevin; Parolai, Stefano; Fourniadis, Yannis; Free, Matthew; Moldobekov, Bolot; Takeuchi, Ko

    2017-04-01

    The Kyrgyz Republic is one of the most socially and economically dynamic countries in Central Asia, and one of the most endangered by earthquake hazard in the region. In order to support the government of the Kyrgyz Republic in the development of a country-level Disaster Risk Reduction strategy, a comprehensive seismic risk study has been developed with the support of the World Bank. As part of this project, state-of-the-art hazard, exposure and vulnerability models have been developed and combined into the assessment of direct physical and economic risk on residential, educational and transportation infrastructure. The seismic hazard has been modelled with three different approaches, in order to provide a comprehensive overview of the possible consequences. A probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) approach has been used to quantitatively evaluate the distribution of expected ground shaking intensity, as constrained by the compiled earthquake catalogue and associated seismic source model. A set of specific seismic scenarios based on events generated from known fault systems have been also considered, in order to provide insight on the expected consequences in case of strong events in proximity of densely inhabited areas. Furthermore, long-span catalogues of events have been generated stochastically and employed in the probabilistic analysis of expected losses over the territory of the Kyrgyz Republic. Damage and risk estimates have been computed by using an exposure model recently developed for the country, combined with the assignment of suitable fragility/vulnerability models. The risk estimation has been carried out with spatial aggregation at the district (rayon) level. The obtained results confirm the high level of seismic risk throughout the country, also pinpointing the location of several risk hotspots, particularly in the southern districts, in correspondence with the Ferghana valley. The outcome of this project will further support the local

  10. Nematode species at risk--a metric to assess pollution in soft sediments of freshwaters.

    PubMed

    Höss, S; Claus, E; Von der Ohe, P C; Brinke, M; Güde, H; Heininger, P; Traunspurger, W

    2011-07-01

    Soft sediments are often highly polluted as many of the toxic chemicals introduced into surface waters bind to settling particles. The resulting accumulation of pollutants in the sediments poses a risk for benthic communities. However, pollution induced changes in benthic communities have been difficult to determine when using macro-invertebrates as bioindicators, as these organisms are often absent in soft sediment. The present study therefore examined the ability of meiofaunal organisms, specifically, nematodes, to assess the ecological status of soft sediments. Over a 9-year period, nematode communities present in sediments collected from large rivers and lake Constance in Germany were studied. These sediments showed a large range of physico-chemical properties and anthropogenic contamination. After the degree of metal and organic contamination was translated into ecotoxicologically more relevant toxic units (TUs), multivariate methods were used to classify nematode taxa in species at risk (NemaSPEAR) or not at risk (NemaSPE(not)AR). This approach clearly distinguished the influence of sediment texture from that of the toxic potential of the samples and thus allowed classification of the nematode species according to their sensitivity to or tolerance of toxic stress. Two indices, expressing the proportion of species at risk within a sample (NemaSPEAR[%](metal), NemaSPEAR[%](organic)), were calculated from independent data sets obtained in field and experimental studies and showed good correlations with the toxic potential (field data) or chemical concentrations (microcosm data). NemaSPEAR[%] indices for metal and organic pollution were therefore judged to be suitable for assessing the impact of chemical contamination of freshwater soft sediments.

  11. Opioid risk assessment in palliative medicine.

    PubMed

    Dale, Rebecca; Edwards, Jeremy; Ballantyne, Jane

    2016-03-01

    Pain management with opioids is an integral part of palliative medicine. As the doses and durations of opioid therapy increase, the inherent risks of opioid therapy rise. Although opioids are effective analgesics, they bring with them complex medical and psychological side effects. Aberrant behavior is dangerous and can be difficult to identify as it results in a splitting in the goals of treatment between the patient and providers. One effective strategy in preventing that situation is through the early identification of at-risk patients. There are several tools that can help identify patients at higher risk of addiction and aberrant behaviors during opioid therapy. Structured use of these tools in conjunction with the clinic exam, regular follow-up visits, and lab testing can further reduce patient risk and improve success in opioid therapy. This article will review the background behind a structured strategy for opioid risk assessment using the Opioid Risk Tool, SOAPP-R, and DIRE tools. In addition, example aberrant behaviors and follow-up strategies will be reviewed. It will be demonstrated that careful screening and follow-up allow risk factors to be recognized and addressed early.

  12. Silent Aircraft Initiative Concept Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nickol, Craig L.

    2008-01-01

    A risk assessment of the Silent Aircraft Initiative's SAX-40 concept design for extremely low noise has been performed. A NASA team developed a list of 27 risk items, and evaluated the level of risk for each item in terms of the likelihood that the risk would occur and the consequences of the occurrence. The following risk items were identified as high risk, meaning that the combination of likelihood and consequence put them into the top one-fourth of the risk matrix: structures and weight prediction; boundary-layer ingestion (BLI) and inlet design; variable-area exhaust and thrust vectoring; displaced-threshold and continuous descent approach (CDA) operational concepts; cost; human factors; and overall noise performance. Several advanced-technology baseline concepts were created to serve as a basis for comparison to the SAX-40 concept. These comparisons indicate that the SAX-40 would have significantly greater research, development, test, and engineering (RDT&E) and production costs than a conventional aircraft with similar technology levels. Therefore, the cost of obtaining the extremely low noise capability that has been estimated for the SAX-40 is significant. The SAX-40 concept design proved successful in focusing attention toward low noise technologies and in raising public awareness of the issue.

  13. Multilocus Genetic Risk Scores for Venous Thromboembolism Risk Assessment

    PubMed Central

    Soria, José Manuel; Morange, Pierre‐Emmanuel; Vila, Joan; Souto, Juan Carlos; Moyano, Manel; Trégouët, David‐Alexandre; Mateo, José; Saut, Noémi; Salas, Eduardo; Elosua, Roberto

    2014-01-01

    Background Genetics plays an important role in venous thromboembolism (VTE). Factor V Leiden (FVL or rs6025) and prothrombin gene G20210A (PT or rs1799963) are the genetic variants currently tested for VTE risk assessment. We hypothesized that primary VTE risk assessment can be improved by using genetic risk scores with more genetic markers than just FVL‐rs6025 and prothrombin gene PT‐rs1799963. To this end, we have designed a new genetic risk score called Thrombo inCode (TiC). Methods and Results TiC was evaluated in terms of discrimination (Δ of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) and reclassification (integrated discrimination improvement and net reclassification improvement). This evaluation was performed using 2 age‐ and sex‐matched case–control populations: SANTPAU (248 cases, 249 controls) and the Marseille Thrombosis Association study (MARTHA; 477 cases, 477 controls). TiC was compared with other literature‐based genetic risk scores. TiC including F5 rs6025/rs118203906/rs118203905, F2 rs1799963, F12 rs1801020, F13 rs5985, SERPINC1 rs121909548, and SERPINA10 rs2232698 plus the A1 blood group (rs8176719, rs7853989, rs8176743, rs8176750) improved the area under the curve compared with a model based only on F5‐rs6025 and F2‐rs1799963 in SANTPAU (0.677 versus 0.575, P<0.001) and MARTHA (0.605 versus 0.576, P=0.008). TiC showed good integrated discrimination improvement of 5.49 (P<0.001) for SANTPAU and 0.96 (P=0.045) for MARTHA. Among the genetic risk scores evaluated, the proportion of VTE risk variance explained by TiC was the highest. Conclusions We conclude that TiC greatly improves prediction of VTE risk compared with other genetic risk scores. TiC should improve prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of VTE. PMID:25341889

  14. A toolbox for rockfall Quantitative Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Agliardi, F.; Mavrouli, O.; Schubert, M.; Corominas, J.; Crosta, G. B.; Faber, M. H.; Frattini, P.; Narasimhan, H.

    2012-04-01

    Rockfall Quantitative Risk Analysis for mitigation design and implementation requires evaluating the probability of rockfall events, the probability and intensity of impacts on structures (elements at risk and countermeasures), their vulnerability, and the related expected costs for different scenarios. A sound theoretical framework has been developed during the last years both for spatially-distributed and local (i.e. single element at risk) analyses. Nevertheless, the practical application of existing methodologies remains challenging, due to difficulties in the collection of required data and to the lack of simple, dedicated analysis tools. In order to fill this gap, specific tools have been developed in the form of Excel spreadsheets, in the framework of Safeland EU project. These tools can be used by stakeholders, practitioners and other interested parties for the quantitative calculation of rock fall risk through its key components (probabilities, vulnerability, loss), using combinations of deterministic and probabilistic approaches. Three tools have been developed, namely: QuRAR (by UNIMIB), VulBlock (by UPC), and RiskNow-Falling Rocks (by ETH Zurich). QuRAR implements a spatially distributed, quantitative assessment methodology of rockfall risk for individual buildings or structures in a multi-building context (urban area). Risk is calculated in terms of expected annual cost, through the evaluation of rockfall event probability, propagation and impact probability (by 3D numerical modelling of rockfall trajectories), and empirical vulnerability for different risk protection scenarios. Vulblock allows a detailed, analytical calculation of the vulnerability of reinforced concrete frame buildings to rockfalls and related fragility curves, both as functions of block velocity and the size. The calculated vulnerability can be integrated in other methodologies/procedures based on the risk equation, by incorporating the uncertainty of the impact location of the rock

  15. Resources for global risk assessment: The International Toxicity Estimates for Risk (ITER) and Risk Information Exchange (RiskIE) databases

    SciTech Connect

    Wullenweber, Andrea Kroner, Oliver; Kohrman, Melissa; Maier, Andrew; Dourson, Michael; Rak, Andrew; Wexler, Philip; Tomljanovic, Chuck

    2008-11-15

    The rate of chemical synthesis and use has outpaced the development of risk values and the resolution of risk assessment methodology questions. In addition, available risk values derived by different organizations may vary due to scientific judgments, mission of the organization, or use of more recently published data. Further, each organization derives values for a unique chemical list so it can be challenging to locate data on a given chemical. Two Internet resources are available to address these issues. First, the International Toxicity Estimates for Risk (ITER) database ( (www.tera.org/iter)) provides chronic human health risk assessment data from a variety of organizations worldwide in a side-by-side format, explains differences in risk values derived by different organizations, and links directly to each organization's website for more detailed information. It is also the only database that includes risk information from independent parties whose risk values have undergone independent peer review. Second, the Risk Information Exchange (RiskIE) is a database of in progress chemical risk assessment work, and includes non-chemical information related to human health risk assessment, such as training modules, white papers and risk documents. RiskIE is available at (http://www.allianceforrisk.org/RiskIE.htm), and will join ITER on National Library of Medicine's TOXNET ( (http://toxnet.nlm.nih.gov/)). Together, ITER and RiskIE provide risk assessors essential tools for easily identifying and comparing available risk data, for sharing in progress assessments, and for enhancing interaction among risk assessment groups to decrease duplication of effort and to harmonize risk assessment procedures across organizations.

  16. Resources for global risk assessment: the International Toxicity Estimates for Risk (ITER) and Risk Information Exchange (RiskIE) databases.

    PubMed

    Wullenweber, Andrea; Kroner, Oliver; Kohrman, Melissa; Maier, Andrew; Dourson, Michael; Rak, Andrew; Wexler, Philip; Tomljanovic, Chuck

    2008-11-15

    The rate of chemical synthesis and use has outpaced the development of risk values and the resolution of risk assessment methodology questions. In addition, available risk values derived by different organizations may vary due to scientific judgments, mission of the organization, or use of more recently published data. Further, each organization derives values for a unique chemical list so it can be challenging to locate data on a given chemical. Two Internet resources are available to address these issues. First, the International Toxicity Estimates for Risk (ITER) database (www.tera.org/iter) provides chronic human health risk assessment data from a variety of organizations worldwide in a side-by-side format, explains differences in risk values derived by different organizations, and links directly to each organization's website for more detailed information. It is also the only database that includes risk information from independent parties whose risk values have undergone independent peer review. Second, the Risk Information Exchange (RiskIE) is a database of in progress chemical risk assessment work, and includes non-chemical information related to human health risk assessment, such as training modules, white papers and risk documents. RiskIE is available at http://www.allianceforrisk.org/RiskIE.htm, and will join ITER on National Library of Medicine's TOXNET (http://toxnet.nlm.nih.gov/). Together, ITER and RiskIE provide risk assessors essential tools for easily identifying and comparing available risk data, for sharing in progress assessments, and for enhancing interaction among risk assessment groups to decrease duplication of effort and to harmonize risk assessment procedures across organizations.

  17. Clinical Risk Assessment in Intensive Care Unit

    PubMed Central

    Asefzadeh, Saeed; Yarmohammadian, Mohammad H.; Nikpey, Ahmad; Atighechian, Golrokh

    2013-01-01

    Background: Clinical risk management focuses on improving the quality and safety of health care services by identifying the circumstances and opportunities that put patients at risk of harm and acting to prevent or control those risks. The goal of this study is to identify and assess the failure modes in the ICU of Qazvin's Social Security Hospital (Razi Hospital) through Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA). Methods: This was a qualitative-quantitative research by Focus Discussion Group (FDG) performed in Qazvin Province, Iran during 2011. The study population included all individuals and owners who are familiar with the process in ICU. Sampling method was purposeful and the FDG group members were selected by the researcher. The research instrument was standard worksheet that has been used by several researchers. Data was analyzed by FMEA technique. Results: Forty eight clinical errors and failure modes identified, results showed that the highest risk probability number (RPN) was in respiratory care “Ventilator's alarm malfunction (no alarm)” with the score 288, and the lowest was in gastrointestinal “not washing the NG-Tube” with the score 8. Conclusions: Many of the identified errors can be prevented by group members. Clinical risk assessment and management is the key to delivery of effective health care. PMID:23930171

  18. 2009 Space Shuttle Probabilistic Risk Assessment Overview

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hamlin, Teri L.; Canga, Michael A.; Boyer, Roger L.; Thigpen, Eric B.

    2010-01-01

    Loss of a Space Shuttle during flight has severe consequences, including loss of a significant national asset; loss of national confidence and pride; and, most importantly, loss of human life. The Shuttle Probabilistic Risk Assessment (SPRA) is used to identify risk contributors and their significance; thus, assisting management in determining how to reduce risk. In 2006, an overview of the SPRA Iteration 2.1 was presented at PSAM 8 [1]. Like all successful PRAs, the SPRA is a living PRA and has undergone revisions since PSAM 8. The latest revision to the SPRA is Iteration 3. 1, and it will not be the last as the Shuttle program progresses and more is learned. This paper discusses the SPRA scope, overall methodology, and results, as well as provides risk insights. The scope, assumptions, uncertainties, and limitations of this assessment provide risk-informed perspective to aid management s decision-making process. In addition, this paper compares the Iteration 3.1 analysis and results to the Iteration 2.1 analysis and results presented at PSAM 8.

  19. Flood risk assessment of land pollution hotspots

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Masi, Matteo; Arrighi, Chiara; Iannelli, Renato

    2017-04-01

    Among the risks caused by extreme events, the potential spread of pollutants stored in land hotspots due to floods is an aspect that has been rarely examined with a risk-based approach. In this contribution, an attempt to estimate pollution risks related to flood events of land pollution hotspots was carried out. Flood risk has been defined as the combination of river flood hazard, hotspots exposure and vulnerability to contamination of the area, i.e. the expected severity of the environmental impacts. The assessment was performed on a geographical basis, using geo-referenced open data, available from databases of land management institutions, authorities and agencies. The list of land pollution hotspots included landfills and other waste handling facilities (e.g., temporary storage, treatment and recycling sites), municipal wastewater treatment plants, liquid waste treatment facilities and contaminated sites. The assessment was carried out by combining geo-referenced data of pollution hotspots with flood hazard maps. We derived maps of land pollution risk based on geographical and geological properties and source characteristics available from environmental authorities. These included information about soil particle size, soil hydraulic conductivity, terrain slope, type of stored pollutants, the type of facility, capacity, size of the area, land use, etc. The analysis was carried out at catchment scale. The case study of the Arno river basin in Tuscany (central Italy) is presented.

  20. Biostatistics Series Module 8: Assessing Risk

    PubMed Central

    Hazra, Avijit; Gogtay, Nithya

    2017-01-01

    In observational studies, as well as in interventional ones, it is frequently necessary to estimate risk that is the association between an observed outcome or event and exposure to one or more factors that may be contributing to the event. Understanding incidence and prevalence are the starting point in any discussion of risk assessment. Incidence rate uses person-time as the denominator rather than a simple count. Ideally, rates and ratios estimated from samples should be presented with their corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs). To assess the importance of an individual risk factor, it is necessary to compare the risk of the outcome in the exposed group with that in the nonexposed group. A comparison between risks in different groups can be made by examining either their ratio or the difference between them. The 2 × 2 contingency table comes in handy in the calculation of ratios. Odds ratio (OR) is the ratio of the odds of an event in the exposed group, to the odds of the same event in the nonexposed group. It can range from zero to infinity. When the odds of an outcome in the two groups are identical, then the OR equals one. OR >1 indicates exposure increases risk while OR <1 indicates that exposure is protecting against risk. The OR should be presented with its 95% CI to enable more meaningful interpretation – if this interval includes 1, then even a relatively large OR will not carry much weight. The relative risk (RR) denotes the ratio of risk (probability) of event in exposed group to risk of same event in the nonexposed group. Its interpretation is similar (but not identical) to the OR. If the event in question is relatively uncommon, values of OR and RR tend to be similar. Absolute risk reduction (ARR) is a measure of the effectiveness of an intervention with respect to a dichotomous event. It is calculated as proportion experiencing the event in control group minus the proportion experiencing the event in treated group. It is often used to

  1. Improving environmental risk assessment of human pharmaceuticals.

    PubMed

    Ågerstrand, Marlene; Berg, Cecilia; Björlenius, Berndt; Breitholtz, Magnus; Brunström, Björn; Fick, Jerker; Gunnarsson, Lina; Larsson, D G Joakim; Sumpter, John P; Tysklind, Mats; Rudén, Christina

    2015-05-05

    This paper presents 10 recommendations for improving the European Medicines Agency's guidance for environmental risk assessment of human pharmaceutical products. The recommendations are based on up-to-date, available science in combination with experiences from other chemical frameworks such as the REACH-legislation for industrial chemicals. The recommendations concern: expanding the scope of the current guideline; requirements to assess the risk for development of antibiotic resistance; jointly performed assessments; refinement of the test proposal; mixture toxicity assessments on active pharmaceutical ingredients with similar modes of action; use of all available ecotoxicity studies; mandatory reviews; increased transparency; inclusion of emission data from production; and a risk management option. We believe that implementation of our recommendations would strengthen the protection of the environment and be beneficial to society. Legislation and guidance documents need to be updated at regular intervals in order to incorporate new knowledge from the scientific community. This is particularly important for regulatory documents concerning pharmaceuticals in the environment since this is a research field that has been growing substantially in the last decades.

  2. Asteroid Risk Assessment: A Probabilistic Approach.

    PubMed

    Reinhardt, Jason C; Chen, Xi; Liu, Wenhao; Manchev, Petar; Paté-Cornell, M Elisabeth

    2016-02-01

    Following the 2013 Chelyabinsk event, the risks posed by asteroids attracted renewed interest, from both the scientific and policy-making communities. It reminded the world that impacts from near-Earth objects (NEOs), while rare, have the potential to cause great damage to cities and populations. Point estimates of the risk (such as mean numbers of casualties) have been proposed, but because of the low-probability, high-consequence nature of asteroid impacts, these averages provide limited actionable information. While more work is needed to further refine its input distributions (e.g., NEO diameters), the probabilistic model presented in this article allows a more complete evaluation of the risk of NEO impacts because the results are distributions that cover the range of potential casualties. This model is based on a modularized simulation that uses probabilistic inputs to estimate probabilistic risk metrics, including those of rare asteroid impacts. Illustrative results of this analysis are presented for a period of 100 years. As part of this demonstration, we assess the effectiveness of civil defense measures in mitigating the risk of human casualties. We find that they are likely to be beneficial but not a panacea. We also compute the probability-but not the consequences-of an impact with global effects ("cataclysm"). We conclude that there is a continued need for NEO observation, and for analyses of the feasibility and risk-reduction effectiveness of space missions designed to deflect or destroy asteroids that threaten the Earth.

  3. Ecological Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund: Process for Designing and Conducting Ecological Risk Assessments - Interim Final

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This document provides guidance to site managers and Remedial Project Managers who are legally responsible for the management of a site on how to design and conduct technically defensible ecological risk assessments for the Superfund program.

  4. Can Systematic Reviews Inform GMO Risk Assessment and Risk Management?

    PubMed Central

    Kohl, Christian; Frampton, Geoff; Sweet, Jeremy; Spök, Armin; Haddaway, Neal Robert; Wilhelm, Ralf; Unger, Stefan; Schiemann, Joachim

    2015-01-01

    Systematic reviews represent powerful tools to identify, collect, synthesize, and evaluate primary research data on specific research questions in a highly standardized and reproducible manner. They enable the defensible synthesis of outcomes by increasing precision and minimizing bias whilst ensuring transparency of the methods used. This makes them especially valuable to inform evidence-based risk analysis and decision making in various topics and research disciplines. Although seen as a “gold standard” for synthesizing primary research data, systematic reviews are not without limitations as they are often cost, labor and time intensive and the utility of synthesis outcomes depends upon the availability of sufficient and robust primary research data. In this paper, we (1) consider the added value systematic reviews could provide when synthesizing primary research data on genetically modified organisms (GMO) and (2) critically assess the adequacy and feasibility of systematic review for collating and analyzing data on potential impacts of GMOs in order to better inform specific steps within GMO risk assessment and risk management. The regulatory framework of the EU is used as an example, although the issues we discuss are likely to be more widely applicable. PMID:26322307

  5. Can Systematic Reviews Inform GMO Risk Assessment and Risk Management?

    PubMed

    Kohl, Christian; Frampton, Geoff; Sweet, Jeremy; Spök, Armin; Haddaway, Neal Robert; Wilhelm, Ralf; Unger, Stefan; Schiemann, Joachim

    2015-01-01

    Systematic reviews represent powerful tools to identify, collect, synthesize, and evaluate primary research data on specific research questions in a highly standardized and reproducible manner. They enable the defensible synthesis of outcomes by increasing precision and minimizing bias whilst ensuring transparency of the methods used. This makes them especially valuable to inform evidence-based risk analysis and decision making in various topics and research disciplines. Although seen as a "gold standard" for synthesizing primary research data, systematic reviews are not without limitations as they are often cost, labor and time intensive and the utility of synthesis outcomes depends upon the availability of sufficient and robust primary research data. In this paper, we (1) consider the added value systematic reviews could provide when synthesizing primary research data on genetically modified organisms (GMO) and (2) critically assess the adequacy and feasibility of systematic review for collating and analyzing data on potential impacts of GMOs in order to better inform specific steps within GMO risk assessment and risk management. The regulatory framework of the EU is used as an example, although the issues we discuss are likely to be more widely applicable.

  6. Cometabolic biodegradation of trichloroethylene in microcosms

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kane, Allen C.; Wilson, Timothy P.; Fischer, Jeffrey M.

    1997-01-01

    Laboratory microcosms were used to determine the concentrations of oxygen (O2) and methane (CH4) that optimize trichloroethylene (TCE) biodegradation in sediment and ground-water samples from a TCE-contaminated aquifer at Picatinny Arsenal, Morris County, New Jersey. The mechanism for degradation is the cometabolic activity of methanotrophic bacteria. The laboratory data will be used to support a field study designed to demonstrate the effectiveness of combining air sparging with cometabolic degradation of TCE for the purpose of aquifer remediation. Microcosms were constructed in autoclaved 250-mL (milliliter) amber glass bottles with valves for repeated headspace sampling. Equal volumes (25 mL) of sediment and ground water, collected from a depth of 40 feet, were added. TCE was added to attain initial aqueous concentrations equal to the field level of 1,400 mu g/L (micrograms per liter). Nine microcosms were constructed with initial headspace O2 concentrations of 5%, 10%, or 14% and CH4 concentrations of 0.5%, 3%, or 5%, with nitrogen making up the balance. Sterile controls, controls without CH4, and controls without sediment were also constructed. A 4-mL gas sample was removed periodically and TCE, O2 , CH4 , and carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations were measured by using gas chromatography. As biodegradation proceeded, the decrease in O2, CH4 , and TCE concentrations and the production of CO2 were monitored. An initial acclimation period of at least 100 days was observed in those microcosms in which significant microbial activity occurred, as determined from decreases in O2 and CH4 concentrations and an increase in CO2 content. Degradation of TCE occurred with O2 concentrations of 2.7 to 8.7% and CH4 concentrations of 0.5 to 3.5%. Microcosms that initially contained 10% O2 and 3% CH4 showed the greatest microbial activity and the greatest amount of TCE degradation. The greatest rates of TCE degradation occurred when O2 and CH4 headspace concentrations reached

  7. [Risk assessment of genetically modified organisms].

    PubMed

    Costa, Thadeu Estevam Moreira Maramaldo; Dias, Aline Peçanha Muzy; Scheidegger, Erica Miranda Damasio; Marin, Victor Augustus

    2011-01-01

    Since the commercial approve in 1996, the global area of transgenic crops has raised more than 50 times. In the last two decades, governments have been planning strategies and protocols for safety assessment of food and feed genetically modified (GM). Evaluation of food safety should be taken on a case-by-case analysis depending on the specific traits of the modified crops and the changes introduced by the genetic modification, using for this the concept of substantial equivalence. This work presents approaches for the risk assessment of GM food, as well as some problems related with the genetic construction or even with the expression of the inserted gene.

  8. Structural changes in a macrozoobenthos assemblage after imidacloprid pulses in aquatic field-based microcosms.

    PubMed

    Colombo, Valentina; Mohr, Silvia; Berghahn, Rüdiger; Pettigrove, Vincent J

    2013-11-01

    A field-based microcosm experiment was performed to investigate the effects of repeated pulses of the neonicotinoid insecticide imidacloprid on a lentic benthos assemblage. This specific microcosm method was chosen because it allows for both testing of a wide range of organisms under natural conditions and as well as gaining insight into intraspecific and interspecific interactions. The macrozoobenthos that colonised the microcosms was exposed to three pulses each 1 week apart at nominal concentrations ranging from 0.6 to 40 μg/L. Imidacloprid underwent fast aqueous photolysis due to optimal sunlight conditions during the test phase (half-life = 28 ± 8 h [monitored for 21 days]). Nonetheless, decreased abundance and emergence of Ephemeroptera and decreased survival of chironomid species of the subfamilies Tanypodinae and Orthocladiinae were observed at time-weighted average concentrations of 2.3 μg/L. In contrast, the gastropod Radix sp. became dominant at high imidacloprid concentrations, probably due to decreased competition for food with sensitive species. The results of this study show that repeated short-term contamination of imidacloprid at low concentration levels may affect aquatic ecosystems even under optimal conditions for photodegradation. The microcosm approach, with its simple and field-relevant design, proved to be a useful tool for assessing the effects of imidacloprid contamination.

  9. Growth of ammonia-oxidizing archaea in soil microcosms is inhibited by acetylene.

    PubMed

    Offre, Pierre; Prosser, James I; Nicol, Graeme W

    2009-10-01

    Autotrophic ammonia-oxidizing bacteria were considered to be responsible for the majority of ammonia oxidation in soil until the recent discovery of the autotrophic ammonia-oxidizing archaea. To assess the relative contributions of bacterial and archaeal ammonia oxidizers to soil ammonia oxidation, their growth was analysed during active nitrification in soil microcosms incubated for 30 days at 30 degrees C, and the effect of an inhibitor of ammonia oxidation (acetylene) on their growth and soil nitrification kinetics was determined. Denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE) analysis of bacterial ammonia oxidizer 16S rRNA genes did not detect any change in their community composition during incubation, and quantitative PCR (qPCR) analysis of bacterial amoA genes indicated a small decrease in abundance in control and acetylene-containing microcosms. DGGE fingerprints of archaeal amoA and 16S rRNA genes demonstrated changes in the relative abundance of specific crenarchaeal phylotypes during active nitrification. Growth was also indicated by increases in crenarchaeal amoA gene copy number, determined by qPCR. In microcosms containing acetylene, nitrification and growth of the crenarchaeal phylotypes were suppressed, suggesting that these crenarchaea are ammonia oxidizers. Growth of only archaeal but not bacterial ammonia oxidizers occurred in microcosms with active nitrification, indicating that ammonia oxidation was mostly due to archaea in the conditions of the present study.

  10. Supplemental Hazard Analysis and Risk Assessment - Hydrotreater

    SciTech Connect

    Lowry, Peter P.; Wagner, Katie A.

    2015-04-01

    A supplemental hazard analysis was conducted and quantitative risk assessment performed in response to an independent review comment received by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) from the U.S. Department of Energy Pacific Northwest Field Office (PNSO) against the Hydrotreater/Distillation Column Hazard Analysis Report issued in April 2013. The supplemental analysis used the hazardous conditions documented by the previous April 2013 report as a basis. The conditions were screened and grouped for the purpose of identifying whether additional prudent, practical hazard controls could be identified, using a quantitative risk evaluation to assess the adequacy of the controls and establish a lower level of concern for the likelihood of potential serious accidents. Calculations were performed to support conclusions where necessary.

  11. Assessing the cancer risk from environmental PCBs.

    PubMed Central

    Cogliano, V J

    1998-01-01

    A new approach to assessing the cancer risk from environmental polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) considers both toxicity and environmental processes to make distinctions among environmental mixtures. New toxicity information from a 1996 cancer study of four commercial mixtures strengthens the case that all PCB mixtures can cause cancer, although different mixtures have different potencies. Environmental processes alter PCB mixtures through partitioning, chemical transformation, and preferential bioaccumulation; these processes can increase or decrease toxicity considerably. Bioaccumulated PCBs are of greatest concern because they appear to be more toxic than commercial PCBs and more persistent in the body. The new approach uses toxicity studies of commercial mixtures to develop a range of cancer potency estimates and then considers the effect of environmental processes to choose appropriate values for representative classes of environmental mixtures. Guidance is given for assessing risks from different exposure pathways, less-than-lifetime and early-life exposures, and mixtures containing dioxinlike compounds. PMID:9618347

  12. Breast cancer risk assessment in primary care.

    PubMed

    Brown, Shannon Lynn; Kartoz, Connie

    2014-01-01

    Breast cancer is the most common cancer (when excluding skin cancers) in women and the second most common cause of cancer death in women, with a lifetime prevalence of 12.5% (, ; ). Breast cancer screening reduces risk of cancer death, thereby increasing rate of survival to up to 89% for women with stage 1 and 2 breast cancer (; ). Despite these data, undue harm may occur with unnecessary screening because overidentification of risk, and excessive, costly biopsies may result. Costs and benefits of screening must be weighed. Nurses at all levels can play a pivotal role in promotion of appropriate breast cancer screening and subsequently breast cancer prevention by using accurate screening tools, such as the Tyrer-Cuzick model. Although there are some limitations with this tool, screening at the primary care level has demonstrated improved clinical outcomes (). Its use can help nurses accurately assess a woman's breast cancer risk, by promoting appropriate screening at the primary care level ().

  13. Chernobyl accident: A comprehensive risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Vargo, G.J.; Poyarkov, V.; Baryakhtar, V.; Kukhar, V.; Los, I.

    1999-01-01

    The authors, all of whom are Ukrainian and Russian scientists involved with Chernobyl nuclear power plant since the April 1986 accident, present a comprehensive review of the accident. In addition, they present a risk assessment of the remains of the destroyed reactor and its surrounding shelter, Chernobyl radioactive waste storage and disposal sites, and environmental contamination in the region. The authors explore such questions as the risks posed by a collapse of the shelter, radionuclide migration from storage and disposal facilities in the exclusion zone, and transfer from soil to vegetation and its potential regional impact. The answers to these questions provide a scientific basis for the development of countermeasures against the Chernobyl accident in particular and the mitigation of environmental radioactive contamination in general. They also provide an important basis for understanding the human health and ecological risks posed by the accident.

  14. Chernobyl accident: A comprehensive risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Vargo, G.J.; Poyarkov, V.; Baryakhtar, V.; Kukhar, V.; Los, I.

    1999-11-01

    The authors, all of whom are Ukrainian and Russian scientists involved with Chernobyl nuclear power plant since the April 1986 accident, present a comprehensive review of the accident. In addition, they present a risk assessment of the remains of the destroyed reactor and its surrounding shelter, Chernobyl radioactive waste storage and disposal sites, and environmental contamination in the region. The authors explore such questions as the risks posed by a collapse of the shelter, radionuclide migration from storage and disposal facilities in the exclusion zone, and transfer from soil to vegetation and its potential regional impact. The answers to these questions provide a scientific basis for the development of countermeasures against the Chernobyl accident in particular and the mitigation of environmental radioactive contamination in general. They also provide an important basis for understanding the human health and ecological risks posed by the accident.

  15. The Chornobyl accident: A comprehensive risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Vargo, G.J.; Poyarkov, V.; Bar`yakhtar, V.; Kukhar, V.; Los, I.; Kholosha, V.; Shestopalov, V.

    1999-10-01

    The authors, all of whom are Ukrainian and Russian scientists involved with Chornobyl nuclear power plant since the April 1986 accident, present a comprehensive review of the accident. In addition, they present a risk assessment of the remains of the destroyed reactor and its surrounding shelter, Chornobyl radioactive waste storage and disposal sites, and environmental contamination in the region. The authors explore such questions as the risks posed by a collapse of the shelter, radionuclide migration from storage and disposal facilities in the exclusion zone, and transfer from soil to vegetation and its potential regional impact. The answers to these questions provide a scientific basis for the development of countermeasures against the Chornobyl accident in particular and the mitigation of environmental radioactive contamination in general. They also provide an important basis for understanding the human health and ecological risks posed by the accident.

  16. Degraded environments alter prey risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Lönnstedt, Oona M; McCormick, Mark I; Chivers, Douglas P

    2012-01-01

    Elevated water temperatures, a decrease in ocean pH, and an increasing prevalence of severe storms have lead to bleaching and death of the hard corals that underpin coral reef ecosystems. As coral cover declines, fish diversity and abundance declines. How degradation of coral reefs affects behavior of reef inhabitants is unknown. Here, we demonstrate that risk assessment behaviors of prey are severely affected by coral degradation. Juvenile damselfish were exposed to visual and olfactory indicators of predation risk in healthy live, thermally bleached, and dead coral in a series of laboratory and field experiments. While fish still responded to visual cues in all habitats, they did not respond to olfactory indicators of risk in dead coral habitats, likely as a result of alteration or degradation of chemical cues. These cues are critical for learning and avoiding predators, and a failure to respond can have dramatic repercussions for survival and recruitment.

  17. Risk assessment meta tool LDRD final report.

    SciTech Connect

    Bouchard, Ann Marie; Osbourn, Gordon Cecil

    2006-12-01

    The goal of this project was to develop a risk analysis meta tool--a tool that enables security analysts both to combine and analyze data from multiple other risk assessment tools on demand. Our approach was based on the innovative self-assembling software technology under development by the project team. This technology provides a mechanism for the user to specify his intentions at a very high level (e.g., equations or English-like text), and then the code self-assembles itself, taking care of the implementation details. The first version of the meta tool focused specifically in importing and analyzing data from Joint Conflict and Tactical Simulation (JCATS) force-on-force simulation. We discuss the problem, our approach, technical risk, and accomplishments on this project, and outline next steps to be addressed with follow-on funding.

  18. Assessing glacial lake outburst flood risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kougkoulos, Ioannis; Cook, Simon; Jomelli, Vincent; Clarke, Leon; Symeonakis, Elias

    2017-04-01

    Glaciers across the world are thinning and receding in response to atmospheric warming. Glaciers tend to erode subglacial basins and deposit eroded materials around their margins as lateral-frontal terminal moraines. Recession into these basins and behind impounding moraines causes meltwater to pond as proglacial and supraglacial lakes. Consequently, there has been a general trend of increasing number and size of these lakes associated with glacier melting in many mountainous regions around the globe, in the last 30 years. Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) then may occur where the glacial lake dam (ice, rock, moraine, or combination thereof) is breached, or overtopped, and thousands of people have lost their lives to such events in the last few decades, especially in the Andes and in the Himalaya. Given the ongoing and arguably increasing risk posed to downstream communities, and infrastructure, there has been a proliferation of GLOF studies, with many seeking to estimate GLOF hazard or risk in specific regions, or to identify 'potentially dangerous glacial lakes'. Given the increased scientific interest in GLOFs, it is timely to evaluate critically the ways in which GLOF risk has been assessed previously, and whether there are improvements that can be made to the ways in which risk assessment is achieved. We argue that, whilst existing GLOF hazard and risk assessments have been extremely valuable they often suffer from a number of key shortcomings that can be addressed by using different techniques as multi-criteria decision analysis and hydraulic modelling borrowed from disciplines like engineering, remote sensing and operations research.

  19. Obsolescence Risk Assessment Process Best Practice

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Romero Rojo, F. J.; Roy, R.; Kelly, S.

    2012-05-01

    A component becomes obsolete when it is no longer available from the original manufacturer to the original specification. In long-lifecycle projects, obsolescence has become a major problem as it prevents the maintenance of the system. This is the reason why obsolescence management is now an essential part of the product support activities in sectors such as defence, aerospace, nuclear and railway; where systems need to be supported for several decades. The obsolescence risk assessment for the bill of materials (BoM) is a paramount activity in order to manage obsolescence proactively and cost-effectively. This is the reason why it was necessary to undertake a benchmarking study to develop best practice in this process. A total of 22 obsolescence experts from 13 different organisations/projects from across UK and USA have participated in this study. Their current processes and experience have been taken into account in the development of the best practice process for obsolescence risk assessment. The key factors that have to be analysed in the risk assessment process for each component in the BoM are: number of manufacturers, years to end of life, stock available, consumption rate and operational impact criticality. For the very high risk components, a more detailed analysis is required to inform the decisions regarding the most suitable mitigation strategies. On the contrary, for the low risk components, a fully proactive approach is neither appropriate nor cost effective. Therefore, it is advised for these components that obsolescence issues are dealt with reactively. This process has been validated using case studies with several experts from industry and is currently being implemented by the UK Ministry of Defence as technical guidance within the JSP 886 Volume 7 Part 8.13 standards.

  20. Response of bacteria and meiofauna to iron oxide colloids in sediments of freshwater microcosms.

    PubMed

    Höss, Sebastian; Frank-Fahle, Béatrice; Lueders, Tillmann; Traunspurger, Walter

    2015-11-01

    The use of colloidal iron oxide (FeOx) in the bioremediation of groundwater contamination implies its increasing release into the environment and requires an assessment of its ecotoxicological risk. Therefore, microcosm experiments were carried out to investigate the impact of ferrihydrite colloids on the bacterial and meiofaunal communities of pristine freshwater sediments. The effects of ferrihydrite colloids were compared with those of ferrihydrite macroaggregates to discriminate between colloid-specific and general FeOx impacts. The influence of ferrihydrite colloids on the toxicity of sediment-bound fluoranthene was also considered. At high concentrations (496 mg Fe kg(-1) sediment dry wt), ferrihydrite colloids had a significant, but transient impact on bacterial and meiofaunal communities. Although bacterial community composition specifically responded to ferrihydrite colloids, a more general FeOx effect was observed for meiofauna. Bacterial activity responded most sensitively (already at 55 mg Fe kg(-1) dry wt) without the potential of recovery. Ferrihydrite colloids did not influence the toxicity of sediment-bound fluoranthene. Significant correlations between bacterial activity and meiofaunal abundances were indicative of trophic interactions between bacteria and meiofauna and therefore of the contribution of indirect food web effects to the observed impacts. The results suggest that the application of ferrihydrite colloids for remediation purposes in the field poses no risk for benthic communities, given that, with the exception of generic bacterial activity, any negative effects on communities were reversible. © 2015 SETAC.

  1. Risk and revisionism in arsenic cancer risk assessment.

    PubMed Central

    Mushak, P; Crocetti, A F

    1995-01-01

    Oral exposures of nonoccupational populations to environmental inorganic arsenic are associated with skin and internal cancers as well as various noncarcinogenic effects. Cancer risk assessments have been based largely on epidemiological studies of a large population exposed to inorganic arsenic in well water in Taiwan. Criticisms and skepticism of the use of the Taiwanese data for estimating arsenic cancer risks outside of Taiwan, including potential use by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency for regulatory purposes, have been expressed on various grounds. The nature and extent of such criticisms have sharpened with recent findings in the exposed Taiwanese of increased incidence of internal cancers (bladder, kidney, liver, and lung), in addition to already-observed skin cancer, coupled with a good likelihood that these findings will produce more stringent arsenic regulation in the United States and elsewhere. These criticisms collectively posit a revisionist view that: 1) cancer incidence among the Taiwanese was amplified by a number of host and environmental factors not applicable elsewhere, 2) the cancer dose-response curve may not be linear at the lower exposures elsewhere, and 3) there is a toxicokinetic and metabolic threshold to cancer risk that was exceeded by the Taiwanese. However, a number of the arguments against wide use of the Taiwanese data are flawed and subject to challenge. We explore some of these arguments and their critical evaluation, particularly as they concern certain exposure, metabolic, and nutritional determinants of the cancer risk of inorganic arsenic in the Taiwanese. PMID:7588479

  2. Depression in primary care: assessing suicide risk

    PubMed Central

    Ng, Chung Wai Mark; How, Choon How; Ng, Yin Ping

    2017-01-01

    Major depression is a common condition seen in the primary care setting. This article describes the suicide risk assessment of a depressed patient, including practical aspects of history-taking, consideration of factors in deciding if a patient requires immediate transfer for inpatient care and measures to be taken if the patient is not hospitalised. It follows on our earlier article about the approach to management of depression in primary care. PMID:28210741

  3. Gender, risk assessment, and political ambition.

    PubMed

    Sweet-Cushman, Jennie

    2016-01-01

    In the United States, women have long held the right to vote and can participate fully in the political process, and yet they are underrepresented at all levels of elected office. Worldwide, men's dominance in the realm of politics has also been the norm. To date, scholars have focused on supply-side and demand-side explanations of women's underrepresentation but differences in how men and women assess electoral risk (the risk involved in seeking political office) are not fully explained. To fill this gap, I explore how evolutionary theory offers insights into gendered differences in political ambition and the evaluation of electoral risk. Using the framework of life-history theory, I hypothesize that both cognitive and environmental factors in human evolution, particularly as they relate to sexual selection and social roles, have shaped the psychology of ambition in gendered ways affecting contemporary politics. Cognitive risk-assessment mechanisms evolving in the hominid line came to be expressed differently in females and males, in women and men. These gendered expressions plausibly reflect differentiable environmental pressures in the past and may help explain behaviors in and barriers to women's electoral political activity in the present. If so, then the success of efforts to increase such activity - or, regressively, to suppress it - may be better understood.

  4. Ecological risk assessment benefits environmental management

    SciTech Connect

    Fairbrother, A.; Kapustka, L.A.; Williams, B.A.; Glicken, J.

    1994-12-31

    The ecological risk assessment process in its ideal form is an unbiased approach for assessing the probability of harm to the environment as a consequence of a given action. This information can then be combined with other societal values and biases in the management of such risks. However, as the process currently is understood, decision makers often are accused of manipulating information in order to generate decisions or achieve buy in from the public in support of a particular political agenda. A clear understanding of the nature of the risk management process can help define areas where information should be free from social or personal bias, and areas where values and judgments are critical. The authors do not propose to discuss the individual`s decision-making process, but rather to address the social process of risk communication and environmentally-related decision-making, identifying which parts of that process require bias-free, scientifically generated information about the consequences of various actions and which parts need an understanding of the social values which underlie the informed choices among those possible actions.

  5. Risk assessment of urban air pollution.

    PubMed

    Törnqvist, M; Ehrenberg, L

    1992-12-01

    Urban air pollution, originating in western countries mainly from automotive engine exhausts, contains thousands of components, many of which are genotoxic, i.e. are putative cancer initiators. Other pollution components, such as NO2 and certain particles, may have cocarcinogenic/promotive effects, at least at higher exposure levels. Cancer risk assessment of this complex mixture has to combine data from the exposure history, from epidemiological studies as well as from animal carcinogenicity tests, and from in vitro studies of fractions and individual components. Data for metabolism and pharmaco-kinetics have also to be considered. A multiplicative linear model is assumed to be valid for cancer initiation at low levels. Attempts are being made to determine the target dose from ultimate carcinogens (reactive metabolites) via macromolecule adduct levels, and to base the risk assessment on the radiation-dose equivalent to the chemical dose. So far this has been possible only for simple alkenes, which are metabolized to epoxides, and indirectly, via benzo(a)pyrene (BaP), for particle-bound polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH). The lifetime risk of cancer (all sites) from ethene is estimated accordingly to 1.4 x 10(-4) per microgram m-3, and from PAH to 12 x 10(-4) per ng m-3 BaP. For other components indicated to give risk contribution (NOx, volatile PAH, benzene, aldehydes, butadiene) essential data are lacking and only very rough estimates can be given at this time.

  6. Natural-technological risk assessment and management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Burova, Valentina; Frolova, Nina

    2016-04-01

    EM-DAT statistical data on human impact and economic damages in the 1st semester 2015 are the highest since 2011: 41% of disasters were floods, responsible for 39% of economic damage and 7% of events were earthquakes responsible for 59% of total death toll. This suggests that disaster risk assessment and management still need to be improved and stay the principle issue in national and international related programs. The paper investigates the risk assessment and management practice in the Russian Federation at different levels. The method is proposed to identify the territories characterized by integrated natural-technological hazard. The maps of the Russian Federation zoning according to the integrated natural-technological hazard level are presented, as well as the procedure of updating the integrated hazard level taking into account the activity of separate processes. Special attention is paid to data bases on past natural and technological processes consequences, which are used for verification of current hazard estimation. The examples of natural-technological risk zoning for the country and some regions territory are presented. Different output risk indexes: both social and economic, are estimated taking into account requirements of end-users. In order to increase the safety of population of the Russian Federation the trans-boundaries hazards are also taken into account.

  7. Quantum chemistry in environmental pesticide risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Villaverde, Juan J; López-Goti, Carmen; Alcamí, Manuel; Lamsabhi, Al Mokhtar; Alonso-Prados, José L; Sandín-España, Pilar

    2017-11-01

    The scientific community and regulatory bodies worldwide, currently promote the development of non-experimental tests that produce reliable data for pesticide risk assessment. The use of standard quantum chemistry methods could allow the development of tools to perform a first screening of compounds to be considered for the experimental studies, improving the risk assessment. This fact results in a better distribution of resources and in better planning, allowing a more exhaustive study of the pesticides and their metabolic products. The current paper explores the potential of quantum chemistry in modelling toxicity and environmental behaviour of pesticides and their by-products by using electronic descriptors obtained computationally. Quantum chemistry has potential to estimate the physico-chemical properties of pesticides, including certain chemical reaction mechanisms and their degradation pathways, allowing modelling of the environmental behaviour of both pesticides and their by-products. In this sense, theoretical methods can contribute to performing a more focused risk assessment of pesticides used in the market, and may lead to higher quality and safer agricultural products. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry.

  8. Offshore blowouts, data for risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Holand, P.

    1995-12-31

    Blowouts are, besides gas leakages, the major contributor to the total risk for offshore installations. Therefore, the blowout risk is always included in Quantitative Risk Analyses (QRAs) of offshore installations in the Norwegian Sector of the North Sea. SINTEF Offshore Blowout Database has existed since 1984 (until 1990 it was called Marintek`s blowout database). In 1990 the responsibility of the database was transferred to SINTEF Safety and Reliability. Throughout these years the database has been used for assessing blowout risk associated to development and operation of fields offshore Norway. Six oil companies and two consultants are presently sponsoring the database. These companies are using the database when performing risk analyses. During the past three years the database has been subjected to a thorough quality improvement, both with respect to the user interface, and most important, regarding the blowout data included in the database. What is unique with this database, besides the high quality of blowout descriptions, is first that the blowout causes are categorized related to loss of primary and secondary barriers. Secondly that the user interface makes it possible to establish searches to withdraw information regarding any blowout type subjected for specific searches.

  9. Project Fox: Assessing Risks Posed By Asteroids

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reinhardt, J.; Chen, X.; Liu, W.; Manchev, P.; Paté-Cornell, M.

    2013-12-01

    In order to make decisions on how to invest limited research dollars on asteroid surveillance and mitigation options, an analytic understanding of the risks posed by impacts is necessary. Qualitative and quantitative studies have been performed to assess such risks, and some reasonable point estimates have been proposed. However, since consequential asteroid impacts tend to be rare events, point estimates and expected annual death rates do not adequately convey the heavy tail of the distribution, potentially leading to misguided resource allocations. We propose and develop a framework for new risk measures, including a distribution over the number of fatalities from asteroid impacts and the probability of a globally consequential impact. We implement a simulation of asteroid impacts using probabilistic inputs for impactor characteristics, and a Poisson process for asteroid arrivals over the next 100 years. Simulation results indicate that a significant portion of the risk to humans comes from asteroids in the 300-1000 meter diameter range; this is because asteroid impacts in this range can produce global effects, and are more frequent than those from asteroids greater than 1km in diameter. The relative importance of this size regime in overall asteroid impact risk is robust in simulation results, and we find the magnitude of risks is still sensitive to factors that contribute global effects from an asteroid impact. Initial results are provided on the sensitivity of impact risks to various mitigation measures, including 'civil defense' methods. These results underscore the need for next-generation survey missions, and can help provide the basis for setting future space telescope observation requirements.

  10. Feasibility of large-scale aquatic microcosms. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Pease, T.; Wyman, R.L.; Logan, D.T.; Logan, C.M.; Lispi, D.R.

    1982-02-01

    Microcosms have been used to study a number of fundamental ecological principles and more recently to investigate the effects of man-made perturbations on ecosystems. In this report the feasibility of using large-scale microcosms to access aquatic impacts of power generating facilities is evaluated. Aquatic problems of concern to utilities are outlined, and various research approaches, including large and small microcosms, bioassays, and other laboratory experiments, are discussed. An extensive critical review and synthesis of the literature on recent microcosm research, which includes a comparison of the factors influencing physical, chemical, and biological processes in small vs large microcosms and in microcosms vs nature, led the authors to conclude that large-scale microcosms offer several advantages over other study techniques for particular types of problems. A hypothetical large-scale facility simulating a lake ecosystem is presented to illustrate the size, cost, and complexity of such facilities. The rationale for designing a lake-simulating large-scale microcosm is presented.

  11. Visual Impairment/Intracranial Pressure Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fogarty, Jennifer A.; Durham, T.; Otto, C.; Grounds, D.; Davis, J. R.

    2010-01-01

    Since 2006 there have been 6 reported cases of altered visual acuity and intracranial pressure (ICP) in long duration astronauts. In order to document this risk and develop an integrated approach to its mitigation, the NASA Space Life Sciences Directorate (SLSD) and Human Research Program (HRP) have chosen to use the Human System Risk Board (HSRB) and the risk management analysis tool (RMAT). The HSRB is the venue in which the stakeholders and customers discuss and vet the evidence and the RMAT is the tool that facilitates documentation and comparison of the evidence across mission profiles as well as identification of risk factors, and documentation of mitigation strategies. This process allows for information to be brought forward and dispositioned so that it may be properly incorporated into the RMAT and contribute to the design of the research and mitigation plans. The evidence thus far has resulted in the identification of a visual impairment/intracranial pressure (VIIP) project team, updating of both short and long duration medical requirements designed to assess visual acuity, and a research plan to characterize this issue further. In order to understand this issue more completely, a plan to develop an Accelerated Research Collaboration (ARC) has been approved by the HSRB. The ARC is a novel research model pioneered by the Myelin Repair Foundation. It is a patient centered research model that brings together researchers and clinicians, under the guidance of a scientific advisory panel, to collaborate and produce results much quickly than accomplished through traditional research models. The data and evidence from the updated medical requirements and the VIIP ARC will be reviewed at the HSRB on a regular basis. Each review package presented to the HSRB will include an assessment and recommendation with respect to continuation of research, countermeasure development, occupational surveillance modalities, selection criteria, etc. This process will determine the

  12. Violence risk assessment as a medical intervention: ethical tensions

    PubMed Central

    Roychowdhury, Ashimesh; Adshead, Gwen

    2014-01-01

    Risk assessment differs from other medical interventions in that the welfare of the patient is not the immediate object of the intervention. However, improving the risk assessment process may reduce the chance of risk assessment itself being unjust. We explore the ethical arguments in relation to risk assessment as a medical intervention, drawing analogies, where applicable, with ethical arguments raised by general medical investigations. The article concludes by supporting the structured professional judgement approach as a method of risk assessment that is most consistent with the respect for principles of medical ethics. Recommendations are made for the future direction of risk assessment indicated by ethical theory. PMID:25237503

  13. Suicide risk assessment and suicide risk formulation: essential components of the therapeutic risk management model.

    PubMed

    Silverman, Morton M

    2014-09-01

    Suicide and other suicidal behaviors are often associated with psychiatric disorders and dysfunctions. Therefore, psychiatrists have significant opportunities to identify at-risk individuals and offer treatment to reduce that risk. Although a suicide risk assessment is a core competency requirement, many clinical psychiatrists lack the requisite training and skills to appropriately assess for suicide risk. Moreover, the standard of care requires psychiatrists to foresee the possibility that a patient might engage in suicidal behavior, hence to conduct a suicide risk formulation sufficient to guide triage and treatment planning. Based on data collected via a suicide risk assessment, a suicide risk formulation is a process whereby the psychiatrist forms a judgment about a patient's foreseeable risk of suicidal behavior in order to inform triage decisions, safety and treatment planning, and interventions to reduce risk. This paper addresses the components of this process in the context of the model for therapeutic risk management of the suicidal patient developed at the Veterans Integrated Service Network (VISN) 19 Mental Illness Research, Education and Clinical Center by Wortzel et al.

  14. A classification scheme for risk assessment methods.

    SciTech Connect

    Stamp, Jason Edwin; Campbell, Philip LaRoche

    2004-08-01

    This report presents a classification scheme for risk assessment methods. This scheme, like all classification schemes, provides meaning by imposing a structure that identifies relationships. Our scheme is based on two orthogonal aspects--level of detail, and approach. The resulting structure is shown in Table 1 and is explained in the body of the report. Each cell in the Table represent a different arrangement of strengths and weaknesses. Those arrangements shift gradually as one moves through the table, each cell optimal for a particular situation. The intention of this report is to enable informed use of the methods so that a method chosen is optimal for a situation given. This report imposes structure on the set of risk assessment methods in order to reveal their relationships and thus optimize their usage.We present a two-dimensional structure in the form of a matrix, using three abstraction levels for the rows and three approaches for the columns. For each of the nine cells in the matrix we identify the method type by name and example. The matrix helps the user understand: (1) what to expect from a given method, (2) how it relates to other methods, and (3) how best to use it. Each cell in the matrix represent a different arrangement of strengths and weaknesses. Those arrangements shift gradually as one moves through the table, each cell optimal for a particular situation. The intention of this report is to enable informed use of the methods so that a method chosen is optimal for a situation given. The matrix, with type names in the cells, is introduced in Table 2 on page 13 below. Unless otherwise stated we use the word 'method' in this report to refer to a 'risk assessment method', though often times we use the full phrase. The use of the terms 'risk assessment' and 'risk management' are close enough that we do not attempt to distinguish them in this report. The remainder of this report is organized as follows. In Section 2 we provide context for this report

  15. Asteroid Airbursts: Risk Assessment and Reduction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boslough, M.

    2015-12-01

    Airbursts are events in which small (meters to tens-of-meters in diameter) asteroids deposit most of their energy in the atmosphere with a total energy greater than small nuclear explosions (>0.1 kilotons of TNT). The airburst risk is higher than previous assessments for two reasons. First, they are more frequent than previously thought. The Tunguska-class (~40 meters) population estimate has doubled, and Chelyabinsk-class (~20 meters) has increased by a factor of 2.6. Second, asteroid airbursts are significantly more damaging than previously assumed. In most cases, they more efficiently couple energy to the surface than nuclear explosions of the same yield. Past Near-Earth Object (NEO) risk assessments concluded that the largest asteroids (> 1 km) dominated the hazard. Large NEOs represent only a tiny fraction of the population but the potential for global catastrophe means that the contribution from low-probability, high-consequence events is large. Nearly 90% of these objects, none of which is on a collision course, have been catalogued. This has reduced their assessed near-term statistical risk by more than an order of magnitude because completion is highest for the largest and most dangerous. The relative risk from small objects would therefore be increasing even if their absolute assessed risk were not. Uncertainty in the number of small NEOs remains large and can only be reduced by expanded surveys. One strategy would be to count small NEOs making close passes in statistically significant numbers. For example, there are about 25 times as many objects of a given size that pass within the distance of geosynchronous orbit than collide with the earth, and 2000 times as many pass within a lunar distance (accounting for gravitational focusing). An asteroid the size of the Chelyabinsk impactor (~20 m) could potentially be observed within geosynchronous orbit every two years and within lunar orbit nearly once a week. A Tunguska-sized asteroid (~40 m) passes within a

  16. Workshop overview: Arsenic research and risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Sams, Reeder Wolf, Douglas C.; Ramasamy, Santhini; Ohanian, Ed; Chen, Jonathan; Lowit, Anna

    2007-08-01

    The chronic exposure of humans through consumption of high levels of inorganic arsenic (iAs)-contaminated drinking water is associated with skin lesions, peripheral vascular disease, hypertension, and cancers. Additionally, humans are exposed to organic arsenicals when used as pesticides and herbicides (e.g., monomethylarsonic acid, dimethylarsinic acid (DMA{sup V}) also known as cacodylic acid). Extensive research has been conducted to characterize the adverse health effects that result from exposure to iAs and its metabolites to describe the biological pathway(s) that lead to adverse health effects. To further this effort, on May 31, 2006, the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) sponsored a meeting entitled 'Workshop on Arsenic Research and Risk Assessment'. The invited participants from government agencies, academia, independent research organizations and consultants were asked to present their current research. The overall focus of these research efforts has been to determine the potential human health risks due to environmental exposures to arsenicals. Pursuant in these efforts is the elucidation of a mode of action for arsenicals. This paper provides a brief overview of the workshop goals, regulatory context for arsenical research, mode of action (MOA) analysis in human health risk assessment, and the application of MOA analysis for iAs and DMA{sup V}. Subsequent papers within this issue will present the research discussed at the workshop, ensuing discussions, and conclusions of the workshop.

  17. Environmental risk assessment in GMO analysis.

    PubMed

    Pirondini, Andrea; Marmiroli, Nelson

    2008-01-01

    Genetically modified or engineered organisms (GMOs, GEOs) are utilised in agriculture, expressing traits of interest, such as insect or herbicide resistance. Soybean, maize, cotton and oilseed rape are the GM crops with the largest acreage in the world. The distribution of GM acreage in the different countries is related with the different positions concerning labelling of GMO products: based on the principle of substantial equivalence, or rather based on the precautionary principle. The paper provides an overview on how the risks associated with release of GMO in the environments can be analysed and predicted, in view of a possible coexistence of GM and non-GM organisms in agriculture.Risk assessment procedures, both qualitative and quantitative, are compared in the context of application to GMOs considering also legislation requirements (Directive 2001/18/EC). Criteria and measurable properties to assess harm for human health and environmental safety are listed, and the possible consequences are evaluated in terms of significance.Finally, a mapping of the possible risks deriving from GMO release is reported, focusing on gene transfer to related species, horizontal gene transfer, direct and indirect effects on non target organisms, development of resistance in target organisms, and effects on biodiversity.

  18. Environmental risk assessment in GMO analysis.

    PubMed

    Pirondini, Andrea; Marmiroli, Nelson

    2010-01-01

    Genetically modified or engineered organisms (GMOs, GEOs) are utilised in agriculture, expressing traits of interest, such as insect or herbicide resistance. Soybean, maize, cotton and oilseed rape are the GM crops with the largest acreage in the world. The distribution of GM acreage in the different countries is related with the different positions concerning labelling of GMO products: based on the principle of substantial equivalence, or rather based on the precautionary principle. The paper provides an overview on how the risks associated with release of GMO in the environments can be analysed and predicted, in view of a possible coexistence of GM and non-GM organisms in agriculture.Risk assessment procedures, both qualitative and quantitative, are compared in the context of application to GMOs considering also legislation requirements (Directive 2001/18/EC). Criteria and measurable properties to assess harm for human health and environmental safety are listed, and the possible consequences are evaluated in terms of significance.Finally, a mapping of the possible risks deriving from GMO release is reported, focusing on gene transfer to related species, horizontal gene transfer, direct and indirect effects on non target organisms, development of resistance in target organisms, and effects on biodiversity.

  19. Spent Nuclear Fuel Alternative Technology Risk Assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Perella, V.F.

    1999-11-29

    A Research Reactor Spent Nuclear Fuel Task Team (RRTT) was chartered by the Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Spent Fuel Management with the responsibility to recommend a course of action leading to a final technology selection for the interim management and ultimate disposition of the foreign and domestic aluminum-based research reactor spent nuclear fuel (SNF) under DOE''s jurisdiction. The RRTT evaluated eleven potential SNF management technologies and recommended that two technologies, direct co-disposal and an isotopic dilution alternative, either press and dilute or melt and dilute, be developed in parallel. Based upon that recommendation, the Westinghouse Savannah River Company (WSRC) organized the SNF Alternative Technology Program to further develop the direct co-disposal and melt and dilute technologies and provide a WSRC recommendation to DOE for a preferred SNF alternative management technology. A technology risk assessment was conducted as a first step in this recommendation process to determine if either, or both, of the technologies posed significant risks that would make them unsuitable for further development. This report provides the results of that technology risk assessment.

  20. Dosimetry and Risk Assessment: Fundamental Concepts

    SciTech Connect

    Fisher, Darrell R.

    2005-12-29

    Radiation dosimetry is important for characterizing radiation exposures and for risk assessment. In a medical setting, dosimetry is important for evaluating the safety of administered radiopharmaceuticals and for planning the safe administration of therapeutic radionuclides. Environmental dosimetry helps establish the safety of radionuclide releases from electric power production and other human activities. Internal and external dosimetry help us understand the consequences of radiation exposure. The absorbed dose is the fundamental quantity in radiation dosimetry from which all other operational values in radiation protection are obtained. Equivalent dose to tissue and effective dose to the whole body are derivatives of absorbed dose and constructs of risk. Mathematical systems supported by computer software facilitate dose calculations and make it possible to estimate internal dose based on bioassay or other biokinetic data. Risk coefficients for radiation-induced cancer rely primarily on data from animal studies and long-term observations of the Hiroshima and Nagasaki bomb survivors. Low-dose research shows that mechanisms of radiation interactions with tissue are dose-dependent, but the resulting biological effects are not necessarily linear with absorbed dose. Thus, the analysis of radiation effects and associated risks must account for the influences of microscopic energy distributions at the cellular level, dose-rate, cellular repair of sub-lethal radiation damage, and modifying factors such as bystander effects, adaptive response, and genomic instability.

  1. Harmonization of international risk assessment protocol.

    PubMed

    Toyofuku, Hajime

    2006-01-01

    For over centuries developments in food production and new food safety management systems in most developed countries have been perceived by many to be efficient in the prevention of food-borne disease. Nevertheless a number of problems remain dominant, one of these being the high level of food-borne microbiological disease which seems, for some pathogens, to have increased over the last decades. The development of an interdisciplinary approach with direct interaction between surveillance and risk analysis systems is described as a potential basis for improved prevention of food-borne disease. Quantitative microbiological risk assessment is a relatively new scientific approach, able to link data from food within the entire food chain and the various data on human disease to provide a clear estimation of risk. Today food safety is one of the WHOs top eleven priorities; the Organization calls for more systematic and aggressive steps to be taken to reduce significantly the risk of microbiological food-borne diseases. Dealing with this challenge is one of the major challenges for the 21st century in regard to food safety, implying a significant re-direction of food microbiology efforts in many parts of the world.

  2. Issues in the risk assessment of chromium.

    PubMed Central

    Albert, R E

    1991-01-01

    Although hexavalent chromium is well established as a human carcinogen by the inhalation route, there are significant uncertainties in the quantitative estimation of cancer risk. One of the important uncertainties is the assumption that the carcinogenic potency, determined under conditions of occupational exposure where most workers were cigarette smokers, applies to the nonsmoking individual in the general population. There is substantial evidence that carcinogenicity is a function of the rate of cell turnover in the target tissue. The chromate worker would be expected to have a relatively high rate of cell proliferation in the bronchial mucosa due to airborne irritants and smoking. The potency of chromium might therefore be relatively high under conditions of occupational exposure. This problem in quantitative risk assessment applies equally well to another important indoor pollutant, radon. PMID:1935856

  3. Health risk assessment of irradiated topaz

    SciTech Connect

    Nelson, J.W.; Baum, J.W.

    1993-01-01

    Irradiated topaz gemstones are currently processed for color improvement by subjecting clear stones to neutron or high-energy electron irradiations, which leads to activation of trace elements in the stones. Assessment of the risk to consumers required the identification and quantification of the resultant radionuclides and the attendant exposure. Representative stones from Brazil, India, Nigeria, Sri Lanka were irradiated and analyzed for gamma ray and beta particle emissions, using sodium iodide and germanium spectrometers; and Geiger-Muller, plastic and liquid scintillation, autoradiography, and thermoluminescent-dosimetry measurement techniques. Based on these studies and other information derived from published literature, dose and related risk estimates were made for typical user conditions. New criteria and methods for routine assays for acceptable release, based on gross beta and gross photon emissions from the stones, were also developed.

  4. Risk assessment of soybean-based phytoestrogens.

    PubMed

    Kwack, Seung Jun; Kim, Kyu-Bong; Kim, Hyung Sik; Yoon, Kyung Sil; Lee, Byung Mu

    2009-01-01

    Koreans generally consume high quantities of soybean-based foods that contain a variety of phytoestrogens, such as, daidzein, zenistein, and biochalin A. However, phytoestrogens are considered to be potential endocrine-disrupting chemicals (EDC), which interfere with the normal function of the hormonal and reproductive systems. Therefore, dietary exposure to soybean-based phytoestrogens is of concern for Koreans, and comparative dietary risk assessments are required between Japanese (high consumers) versus Americans (low consumers). In this study, a relative risk assessment was conducted based upon daily intake levels of soybean-based foods and phytoestrogens in a Korean cohort, and the risks of photoestrogens were compared with those posed by estradiol and other EDC. Koreans approximately 30-49 yr of age consume on average a total of 135.2 g/d of soy-based foods including soybean, soybean sauce, soybean paste, and soybean oil, and 0.51 mg/kg body weight (bw)/d of phytoestrogens such as daidzein and genistein. Using estimated daily intakes (EDI) and estrogenic potencies (EP), margins of safety (MOS) were calculated where 0.05 is for estradiol (MOS value <1, considered to exert a positive estrogenic effect); thus, MOS values of 1.89 for Japanese, 1.96 for Koreans, and 5.55 for Americans indicate that consumption of soybean-based foods exerted no apparent estrogenic effects, as all MOS values were all higher than 1. For other synthetic EDC used as reference values, MOS values were dieldrin 27, nonylphenol 250, butyl benzyl phthalate 321, bisphenol A 1000, biochanin A 2203, and coumesterol 2898. These results suggest that dietary exposure to phytoestrogens, such as daidzein and genistein, poses a relatively higher health risk for humans than synthetic EDC, although MOS values were all greater than 1.

  5. Assessing risk of solid waste compost

    SciTech Connect

    Dyer, J.M.; Razvi, A.S. )

    1987-03-01

    This paper addresses the movement of metals in soils and their accumulation in plants. Research with sewage sludge compost indicates that these risks can be minimized with proper handling and management. The objectives of this study were: (I) to evaluate potential groundwater contamination due to plant nutrients and heavy metals in the compost; and (II) to assess the accumulation of metals in plants grown on compost-amended soil. Data are presented for analyses of nickel, lead, cadmium, copper and zinc in snap beans.

  6. Command hallucinations, compliance, and risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Hersh, K; Borum, R

    1998-01-01

    Command hallucinations are auditory hallucinations that instruct a patient to act in specific ways; these commands can range in seriousness from innocuous to life-threatening. This article summarizes two areas of research regarding command hallucinations: rates of compliance with command hallucinations; and factors associated with compliance. Researchers have reported rates of compliance ranging from 39.2 percent to 88.5 percent. Compliance has not been consistently related to dangerousness of commands. Instead, research suggests that Individuals are more likely to comply with commands if they recognize the hallucinated voice and if their hallucinations are related to a delusion. Implications for risk assessment are discussed in light of the research.

  7. Session: Pre-development project risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Curry, Richard; Linehan, Andy

    2004-09-01

    This second session at the Wind Energy and Birds/Bats workshop consisted of two presentations followed by a discussion/question and answer period. The focus of the presentations was on the practices and methodologies used in the wind energy industry for assessing risk to birds and bats at candidate project sites. Presenters offered examples of pre-development siting evaluation requirements set by certain states. Presentation one was titled ''Practices and Methodologies and Initial Screening Tools'' by Richard Curry of Curry and Kerlinger, LLC. Presentation two was titled ''State of the Industry in the Pacific Northwest'' by Andy Linehan, CH2MHILL.

  8. Promise assessment: A corollary to risk assessment for characterizing benefits

    SciTech Connect

    Sholtis, J.A. Jr. )

    1993-01-10

    Decisions involving the use of hazardous technologies are often made based on risk-benefit considerations. This is the case for U.S. space mission use of nuclear power and propulsion systems, where launch decisions are made within the office of the President. A great deal of time and effort is spent characterizing the risk for each nuclear-powered space mission. However, this is not so for benefits, even though they are no less important. To correct this situation, a new technical term--promise--is defined, and a new methodology--promise assessment--is proposed. This paper introduces and advances this concept, addresses its future application, as a tool, can be developed sufficiently and applied to methodically identify and characterized benefits. Further, it can introduce a degree of balance when judgments concerning the use of hazardous technologies are involved.

  9. Technical Overview of Ecological Risk Assessment - Analysis Phase: Exposure Characterization

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Exposure Characterization is the second major component of the analysis phase of a risk assessment. For a pesticide risk assessment, the exposure characterization describes the potential or actual contact of a pesticide with a plant, animal, or media.

  10. INTEGRATED RISK ASSESSMENT - RESULTS FROM AN INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP

    EPA Science Inventory

    The WHO International Programme on Chemical Safety and international partners have developed a framework for integrated assessment of human health and ecological risks and four case studies. An international workshop was convened to consider how ecological and health risk assess...

  11. INTEGRATED RISK ASSESSMENT - RESULTS FROM AN INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP

    EPA Science Inventory

    The WHO International Programme on Chemical Safety and international partners have developed a framework for integrated assessment of human health and ecological risks and four case studies. An international workshop was convened to consider how ecological and health risk assess...

  12. Considering Environmental and Occupational Stressors in Cumulative Risk Assessments

    EPA Science Inventory

    While definitions vary across the global scientific community, cumulative risk assessments (CRAs) typically are described as exhibiting a population focus and analyzing the combined risks posed by multiple stressors. CRAs also may consider risk management alternatives as an anal...

  13. Considering Environmental and Occupational Stressors in Cumulative Risk Assessments

    EPA Science Inventory

    While definitions vary across the global scientific community, cumulative risk assessments (CRAs) typically are described as exhibiting a population focus and analyzing the combined risks posed by multiple stressors. CRAs also may consider risk management alternatives as an anal...

  14. Toxicologic Pathology: The Basic Building Block of Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    Human health risk assessment is a critical factor in many risk management decisions. Evaluation of human health risk requires research the provides information that appropriately characterizes potential hazards from exposure. Pathology endpoints are the central response around ...

  15. Toxicologic Pathology: The Basic Building Block of Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    Human health risk assessment is a critical factor in many risk management decisions. Evaluation of human health risk requires research the provides information that appropriately characterizes potential hazards from exposure. Pathology endpoints are the central response around ...

  16. Anthropometry in cardio-metabolic risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Mišigoj-Duraković, Marjeta; Sorić, Maroje; Duraković, Zijad

    2014-03-01

    High prevalence of obesity, as a major public health problem, is connected with chronic cardiovascular and metabolic diseases. That is why some simple anthropometric parameters were developed to estimate overweight and obesity, and in the primary screening of risk groups. In this field, body mass index (BMI) is the most frequent parameter, both in epidemiological research and in everyday practice. It is a part of the algorithm used in the early detection of overweight and obese persons. However, BMI does not provide any data on body composition. This is why it is particularly insufficient in estimating body mass in physically active persons and in athletes who are often overweight, with a higher proportion of lean body mass but without any excess fat, as well as in those with normal weight but lower than normal lean body mass and/ or gentle skeleton. Over the last few decades, attention has been especially directed to different body fat distribution in relation to chronic cardio-vascular and metabolic diseases. Waist circumference (WC) is the best anthropometric predictor of cardiovascular risk. It is considered an indirect parameter of visceral fat. WC and waist-to-hip ratio are good parameters showing body fat distribution and cardio-metabolic risk. Waist-to-height ratio is suggested by some authors to be an even better parameter of cardio-vascular risk and metabolic syndrome. Hypertriglyceridemia combined with increased WC is considered a marker of atherogenic metabolic risk. The paper also deals with procedures of body composition analysis. Anthropometric assessment of body composition analysis belongs to a group of simple and inexpensive procedures. Development of generalised equations for body density prediction introduced anthropometric methods in the analysis of body composition in everyday practice.

  17. No proof of synergy at environmentally realistic concentrations of prochloraz and esfenvalerate--a reaction on "synergy in microcosms with environmentally realistic concentrations of prochloraz and esfenvalerate" by Bjergager et al. (Aquat. Toxicol. 101 (2011), 412-422).

    PubMed

    Weltje, Lennart

    2013-09-15

    The aquatic microcosm study by Bjergager et al. (2011) on a mixture of the fungicide prochloraz and the insecticide esfenvalerate concluded that synergistic effects were found at environmentally realistic concentrations for these compounds and thus that current risk assessment procedures might underestimate the effects of synergistically interacting azoles and pyrethroids. Both prochloraz and esfenvalerate are registered in Europe and thus the relevance of the employed concentrations can be assessed against European surface water measurements and risk assessments procedures. A detailed comparison of the employed concentration of prochloraz in the microcosm study with the concentration deemed acceptable in the European Union and those actually measured in the aquatic environment demonstrate that the employed prochloraz concentration was about two orders of magnitude too high. Therefore, on basis of the data presented by Bjergager et al. (2011) it cannot be concluded that current European single substance risk assessment procedures are insufficiently protective and that synergism actually occurs at environmentally relevant concentrations. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. NEUROBEHAVIORAL TESTING IN HUMAN RISK ASSESSMENT

    PubMed Central

    Rohlman, Diane S.; Lucchini, Roberto; Anger, W. Kent; Bellinger, David C.; van Thriel, Christoph

    2008-01-01

    Neurobehavioral tests are being increasingly used in human risk assessment and there is a strong need for guidance. The field of neurobehavioral toxicology has evolved from research which initially focused on using traditional neuropsychological tests to identify “abnormal cases” to include methods used to detect sub-clinical deficits, to further incorporate the use of neurosensory assessment, and to expand testing from occupational populations to vulnerable populations including older adults and children. Even as exposures in the workplace are reduced, they have been increasing in the environment and research on exposure has now expanded to cross the entire lifetime. These neurobehavioral methods are applied in research and the findings used for regulatory purposes to develop preventative action for exposed populations. This paper reflects a summary of the talks presented at the symposium presented at the 11th meeting of the International Neurotoxicology Association. PMID:18539229

  19. [Thinking on risk assessment and risk management of post-marketing Chinese medicine].

    PubMed

    Yu, Xueqing; Xie, Yanming; Wang, Yongyan

    2012-01-01

    Drug risk assessment and management is an important measure for reducing the adverse drug reaction and enhancing medication safety of the patient. Based on the concepts of drug risk assessment and risk management, and domestic and international drug risk management situation, this paper discusses the risk management of post-marketing Chinese medicine.

  20. Twenty Years of Progress in Violence Risk Assessment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hanson, R. Karl

    2005-01-01

    Violence risk assessment has advanced considerably in the last 20 years. In the 1980s, leading professionals questioned the very possibility of valid violence risk assessments; now, many of the major risk factors have been identified, and professional debate focuses on how best to combine these risk factors into meaningful evaluations. An…