Development and validation of a Markov microsimulation model for the economic evaluation of treatments in osteoporosis.

PubMed

Hiligsmann, Mickaël; Ethgen, Olivier; Bruyère, Olivier; Richy, Florent; Gathon, Henry-Jean; Reginster, Jean-Yves

2009-01-01

Markov models are increasingly used in economic evaluations of treatments for osteoporosis. Most of the existing evaluations are cohort-based Markov models missing comprehensive memory management and versatility. In this article, we describe and validate an original Markov microsimulation model to accurately assess the cost-effectiveness of prevention and treatment of osteoporosis. We developed a Markov microsimulation model with a lifetime horizon and a direct health-care cost perspective. The patient history was recorded and was used in calculations of transition probabilities, utilities, and costs. To test the internal consistency of the model, we carried out an example calculation for alendronate therapy. Then, external consistency was investigated by comparing absolute lifetime risk of fracture estimates with epidemiologic data. For women at age 70 years, with a twofold increase in the fracture risk of the average population, the costs per quality-adjusted life-year gained for alendronate therapy versus no treatment were estimated at €9105 and €15,325, respectively, under full and realistic adherence assumptions. All the sensitivity analyses in terms of model parameters and modeling assumptions were coherent with expected conclusions and absolute lifetime risk of fracture estimates were within the range of previous estimates, which confirmed both internal and external consistency of the model. Microsimulation models present some major advantages over cohort-based models, increasing the reliability of the results and being largely compatible with the existing state of the art, evidence-based literature. The developed model appears to be a valid model for use in economic evaluations in osteoporosis.

Internet use and health: Connecting secondary data through spatial microsimulation

PubMed Central

Deetjen, Ulrike; Powell, John A

2016-01-01

Objective Internet use may affect health and health service use, and is seen as a potential lever for empowering patients, levelling inequalities and managing costs in the health system. However, supporting evidence is scant, partially due to a lack of data to investigate the relationship on a larger scale. This paper presents an approach for connecting existing datasets to generate new insights. Methods Spatial microsimulation offers a way to combine a random sample survey on Internet use with aggregate census data and other routine data from the health system based on small geographic areas to examine the relationship between Internet use, perceived health and health service use. While health research has primarily used spatial microsimulation to estimate the geographic distribution of a certain phenomenon, this research highlights this simulation technique as a way to link datasets for joint analysis, with location as the connecting element. Results Internet use is associated with higher perceived health and lower health service use independently of whether Internet use was conceptualised in terms of access, support or usage, and controlling for sociodemographic covariates. Internal validation confirms that differences between actual and simulated data are small; external validation shows that the simulated dataset is a good reflection of the real world. Conclusion Spatial microsimulation helps to generate new insights through linking secondary data in a privacy-preserving and cost-effective way. This allows for better understanding the relationship between Internet use and health, enabling theoretical insights and practical implications for policy with insights down to the local level. PMID:29942566

Novel application of red-light runner proneness theory within traffic microsimulation to an actual signal junction.

PubMed

Bell, Margaret Carol; Galatioto, Fabio; Giuffrè, Tullio; Tesoriere, Giovanni

2012-05-01

Building on previous research a conceptual framework, based on potential conflicts analysis, has provided a quantitative evaluation of 'proneness' to red-light running behaviour at urban signalised intersections of different geometric, flow and driver characteristics. The results provided evidence that commonly used violation rates could cause inappropriate evaluation of the extent of the red-light running phenomenon. Initially, an in-depth investigation of the functional form of the mathematical relationship between the potential and actual red-light runners was carried out. The application of the conceptual framework was tested on a signalised intersection in order to quantify the proneness to red-light running. For the particular junction studied proneness for daytime was found to be 0.17 north and 0.16 south for opposing main road approaches and 0.42 east and 0.59 west for the secondary approaches. Further investigations were carried out using a traffic microsimulation model, to explore those geometric features and traffic volumes (arrival patterns at the stop-line) that significantly affect red-light running. In this way the prediction capability of the proposed potential conflict model was improved. A degree of consistency in the measured and simulated red-light running was observed and the conceptual framework was tested through a sensitivity analysis applied to different stop-line positions and traffic volume variations. The microsimulation, although at its early stages of development, has shown promise in its ability to model unintentional red light running behaviour and following further work through application to other junctions, potentially provides a tool for evaluation of alternative junction designs on proneness. In brief, this paper proposes and applies a novel approach to model red-light running using a microsimulation and demonstrates consistency with the observed and theoretical results. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Constructing an Urban Population Model for Medical Insurance Scheme Using Microsimulation Techniques

PubMed Central

Xiong, Linping; Zhang, Lulu; Tang, Weidong; Ma, Yuqin

2012-01-01

China launched a pilot project of medical insurance reform in 79 cities in 2007 to cover urban nonworking residents. An urban population model was created in this paper for China's medical insurance scheme using microsimulation model techniques. The model made it clear for the policy makers the population distributions of different groups of people, the potential urban residents entering the medical insurance scheme. The income trends of units of individuals and families were also obtained. These factors are essential in making the challenging policy decisions when considering to balance the long-term financial sustainability of the medical insurance scheme. PMID:22481973

A Micro-Level Data-Calibrated Agent-Based Model: The Synergy between Microsimulation and Agent-Based Modeling.

PubMed

Singh, Karandeep; Ahn, Chang-Won; Paik, Euihyun; Bae, Jang Won; Lee, Chun-Hee

2018-01-01

Artificial life (ALife) examines systems related to natural life, its processes, and its evolution, using simulations with computer models, robotics, and biochemistry. In this article, we focus on the computer modeling, or "soft," aspects of ALife and prepare a framework for scientists and modelers to be able to support such experiments. The framework is designed and built to be a parallel as well as distributed agent-based modeling environment, and does not require end users to have expertise in parallel or distributed computing. Furthermore, we use this framework to implement a hybrid model using microsimulation and agent-based modeling techniques to generate an artificial society. We leverage this artificial society to simulate and analyze population dynamics using Korean population census data. The agents in this model derive their decisional behaviors from real data (microsimulation feature) and interact among themselves (agent-based modeling feature) to proceed in the simulation. The behaviors, interactions, and social scenarios of the agents are varied to perform an analysis of population dynamics. We also estimate the future cost of pension policies based on the future population structure of the artificial society. The proposed framework and model demonstrates how ALife techniques can be used by researchers in relation to social issues and policies.

Opportunities and Challenges in Supply-Side Simulation: Physician-Based Models

PubMed Central

Gresenz, Carole Roan; Auerbach, David I; Duarte, Fabian

2013-01-01

Objective To provide a conceptual framework and to assess the availability of empirical data for supply-side microsimulation modeling in the context of health care. Data Sources Multiple secondary data sources, including the American Community Survey, Health Tracking Physician Survey, and SK&A physician database. Study Design We apply our conceptual framework to one entity in the health care market—physicians—and identify, assess, and compare data available for physician-based simulation models. Principal Findings Our conceptual framework describes three broad types of data required for supply-side microsimulation modeling. Our assessment of available data for modeling physician behavior suggests broad comparability across various sources on several dimensions and highlights the need for significant integration of data across multiple sources to provide a platform adequate for modeling. A growing literature provides potential estimates for use as behavioral parameters that could serve as the models' engines. Sources of data for simulation modeling that account for the complex organizational and financial relationships among physicians and other supply-side entities are limited. Conclusions A key challenge for supply-side microsimulation modeling is optimally combining available data to harness their collective power. Several possibilities also exist for novel data collection. These have the potential to serve as catalysts for the next generation of supply-side-focused simulation models to inform health policy. PMID:23347041

Optimizing colorectal cancer screening by race and sex: Microsimulation analysis II to inform the American Cancer Society colorectal cancer screening guideline.

PubMed

Meester, Reinier G S; Peterse, Elisabeth F P; Knudsen, Amy B; de Weerdt, Anne C; Chen, Jennifer C; Lietz, Anna P; Dwyer, Andrea; Ahnen, Dennis J; Siegel, Rebecca L; Smith, Robert A; Zauber, Ann G; Lansdorp-Vogelaar, Iris

2018-05-30

Colorectal cancer (CRC) risk varies by race and sex. This study, 1 of 2 microsimulation analyses to inform the 2018 American Cancer Society CRC screening guideline, explored the influence of race and sex on optimal CRC screening strategies. Two Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network microsimulation models, informed by US incidence data, were used to evaluate a variety of screening methods, ages to start and stop, and intervals for 4 demographic subgroups (black and white males and females) under 2 scenarios for the projected lifetime CRC risk for 40-year-olds: 1) assuming that risk had remained stable since the early screening era and 2) assuming that risk had increased proportionally to observed incidence trends under the age of 40 years. Model-based screening recommendations were based on the predicted level of benefit (life-years gained) and burden (required number of colonoscopies), the incremental burden-to-benefit ratio, and the relative efficiency in comparison with strategies with similar burdens. When lifetime CRC risk was assumed to be stable over time, the models differed in the recommended age to start screening for whites (45 vs 50 years) but consistently recommended screening from the age of 45 years for blacks. When CRC risk was assumed to be increased, the models recommended starting at the age of 45 years, regardless of race and sex. Strategies recommended under both scenarios included colonoscopy every 10 or 15 years, annual fecal immunochemical testing, and computed tomographic colonography every 5 years through the age of 75 years. Microsimulation modeling suggests that CRC screening should be considered from the age of 45 years for blacks and for whites if the lifetime risk has increased proportionally to the incidence for younger adults. Cancer 2018. © 2018 The Authors. Cancer published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of American Cancer Society. © 2018 The Authors. Cancer published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of American Cancer Society.

Using Microsimulation to Estimate the Future Health and Economic Costs of Salmonellosis under Climate Change in Central Queensland, Australia.

PubMed

Stephen, Dimity Maree; Barnett, Adrian Gerard

2017-12-11

The incidence of salmonellosis, a costly foodborne disease, is rising in Australia. Salmonellosis increases during high temperatures and rainfall, and future incidence is likely to rise under climate change. Allocating funding to preventative strategies would be best informed by accurate estimates of salmonellosis costs under climate change and by knowing which population subgroups will be most affected. We used microsimulation models to estimate the health and economic costs of salmonellosis in Central Queensland under climate change between 2016 and 2036 to inform preventative strategies. We projected the entire population of Central Queensland to 2036 by simulating births, deaths, and migration, and salmonellosis and two resultant conditions, reactive arthritis and postinfectious irritable bowel syndrome. We estimated salmonellosis risks and costs under baseline conditions and under projected climate conditions for Queensland under the A1FI emissions scenario using composite projections from 6 global climate models (warm with reduced rainfall). We estimated the resulting costs based on direct medical expenditures combined with the value of lost quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) based on willingness-to-pay. Estimated costs of salmonellosis between 2016 and 2036 increased from 456.0 QALYs (95% CI: 440.3, 473.1) and AUD29,900,000 million (95% CI: AUD28,900,000, AUD31,600,000), assuming no climate change, to 485.9 QALYs (95% CI: 469.6, 503.5) and AUD31,900,000 (95% CI: AUD30,800,000, AUD33,000,000) under the climate change scenario. We applied a microsimulation approach to estimate the costs of salmonellosis and its sequelae in Queensland during 2016-2036 under baseline conditions and according to climate change projections. This novel application of microsimulation models demonstrates the models' potential utility to researchers for examining complex interactions between weather and disease to estimate future costs. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP1370.

Using Microsimulation to Estimate the Future Health and Economic Costs of Salmonellosis under Climate Change in Central Queensland, Australia

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Background: The incidence of salmonellosis, a costly foodborne disease, is rising in Australia. Salmonellosis increases during high temperatures and rainfall, and future incidence is likely to rise under climate change. Allocating funding to preventative strategies would be best informed by accurate estimates of salmonellosis costs under climate change and by knowing which population subgroups will be most affected. Objective: We used microsimulation models to estimate the health and economic costs of salmonellosis in Central Queensland under climate change between 2016 and 2036 to inform preventative strategies. Methods: We projected the entire population of Central Queensland to 2036 by simulating births, deaths, and migration, and salmonellosis and two resultant conditions, reactive arthritis and postinfectious irritable bowel syndrome. We estimated salmonellosis risks and costs under baseline conditions and under projected climate conditions for Queensland under the A1FI emissions scenario using composite projections from 6 global climate models (warm with reduced rainfall). We estimated the resulting costs based on direct medical expenditures combined with the value of lost quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) based on willingness-to-pay. Results: Estimated costs of salmonellosis between 2016 and 2036 increased from 456.0 QALYs (95% CI: 440.3, 473.1) and AUD29,900,000 million (95% CI: AUD28,900,000, AUD31,600,000), assuming no climate change, to 485.9 QALYs (95% CI: 469.6, 503.5) and AUD31,900,000 (95% CI: AUD30,800,000, AUD33,000,000) under the climate change scenario. Conclusion: We applied a microsimulation approach to estimate the costs of salmonellosis and its sequelae in Queensland during 2016–2036 under baseline conditions and according to climate change projections. This novel application of microsimulation models demonstrates the models’ potential utility to researchers for examining complex interactions between weather and disease to estimate future costs. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP1370 PMID:29233795

smokeSALUD: exploring the effect of demographic change on the smoking prevalence at municipality level in Austria.

PubMed

Tomintz, Melanie; Kosar, Bernhard; Clarke, Graham

2016-10-07

Reducing the smoking population is still high on the policy agenda, as smoking leads to many preventable diseases, such as lung cancer, heart disease, diabetes, and more. In Austria, data on smoking prevalence only exists at the federal state level. This provides an interesting overview about the current health situation, but for regional planning authorities these data are often insufficient as they can hide pockets of high and low smoking prevalence in certain municipalities. This paper presents a spatial-temporal change of estimated smokers for municipalities from 2001 and 2011. A synthetic dataset of smokers is built by combining individual large-scale survey data and small area census data using a deterministic spatial microsimulation approach. Statistical analysis, including chi-square test and binary logistic regression, are applied to find the best variables for the simulation model and to validate its results. As no easy-to-use spatial microsimulation software for non-programmers is available yet, a flexible web-based spatial microsimulation application for health decision support (called simSALUD) has been developed and used for these analyses. The results of the simulation show in general a decrease of smoking prevalence within municipalities between 2001 and 2011 and differences within areas are identified. These results are especially valuable to policy decision makers for future planning strategies. This case study shows the application of smokeSALUD to model the spatial-temporal changes in the smoking population in Austria between 2001 and 2011. This is important as no data on smoking exists at this geographical scale (municipality). However, spatial microsimulation models are useful tools to estimate small area health data and to overcome these problems. The simulations and analysis should support health decision makers to identify hot spots of smokers and this should help to show where to spend health resources best in order to reduce health inequalities.

Cost-Effectiveness of Screening Individuals With Cystic Fibrosis for Colorectal Cancer.

PubMed

Gini, Andrea; Zauber, Ann G; Cenin, Dayna R; Omidvari, Amir-Houshang; Hempstead, Sarah E; Fink, Aliza K; Lowenfels, Albert B; Lansdorp-Vogelaar, Iris

2017-12-27

Individuals with cystic fibrosis are at increased risk of colorectal cancer (CRC) compared to the general population, and risk is higher among those who received an organ transplant. We performed a cost-effectiveness analysis to determine optimal CRC screening strategies for patients with cystic fibrosis. We adjusted the existing Microsimulation Screening Analysis-Colon microsimulation model to reflect increased CRC risk and lower life expectancy in patients with cystic fibrosis. Modeling was performed separately for individuals who never received an organ transplant and patients who had received an organ transplant. We modeled 76 colonoscopy screening strategies that varied the age range and screening interval. The optimal screening strategy was determined based on a willingness to pay threshold of $100,000 per life-year gained. Sensitivity and supplementary analyses were performed, including fecal immunochemical test (FIT) as an alternative test, earlier ages of transplantation, and increased rates of colonoscopy complications, to assess whether optimal screening strategies would change. Colonoscopy every 5 years, starting at age 40 years, was the optimal colonoscopy strategy for patients with cystic fibrosis who never received an organ transplant; this strategy prevented 79% of deaths from CRC. Among patients with cystic fibrosis who had received an organ transplant, optimal colonoscopy screening should start at an age of 30 or 35 years, depending on the patient's age at time of transplantation. Annual FIT screening was predicted to be cost-effective for patients with cystic fibrosis. However, the level of accuracy of the FIT in population is not clear. Using a Microsimulation Screening Analysis-Colon microsimulation model, we found screening of patients with cystic fibrosis for CRC to be cost-effective. Due to the higher risk in these patients for CRC, screening should start at an earlier age with a shorter screening interval. The findings of this study (especially those on FIT screening) may be limited by restricted evidence available for patients with cystic fibrosis. Copyright © 2017 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Simple Queueing Model Applied to the City of Portland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simon, Patrice M.; Esser, Jörg; Nagel, Kai

We use a simple traffic micro-simulation model based on queueing dynamics as introduced by Gawron [IJMPC, 9(3):393, 1998] in order to simulate traffic in Portland/Oregon. Links have a flow capacity, that is, they do not release more vehicles per second than is possible according to their capacity. This leads to queue built-up if demand exceeds capacity. Links also have a storage capacity, which means that once a link is full, vehicles that want to enter the link need to wait. This leads to queue spill-back through the network. The model is compatible with route-plan-based approaches such as TRANSIMS, where each vehicle attempts to follow its pre-computed path. Yet, both the data requirements and the computational requirements are considerably lower than for the full TRANSIMS microsimulation. Indeed, the model uses standard emme/2 network data, and runs about eight times faster than real time with more than 100 000 vehicles simultaneously in the simulation on a single Pentium-type CPU. We derive the model's fundamental diagrams and explain it. The simulation is used to simulate traffic on the emme/2 network of the Portland (Oregon) metropolitan region (20 000 links). Demand is generated by a simplified home-to-work destination assignment which generates about half a million trips for the morning peak. Route assignment is done by iterative feedback between micro-simulation and router. An iterative solution of the route assignment for the above problem can be achieved within about half a day of computing time on a desktop workstation. We compare results with field data and with results of traditional assignment runs by the Portland Metropolitan Planning Organization. Thus, with a model such as this one, it is possible to use a dynamic, activities-based approach to transportation simulation (such as in TRANSIMS) with affordable data and hardware. This should enable systematic research about the coupling of demand generation, route assignment, and micro-simulation output.

Emergency vehicle-to-vehicle communication : final report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-08-15

Emergency response vehicles (ERVs) frequently navigate congested traffic conditions to reach : their destinations as quickly as possible. In this report, several efforts performed by the research : group are described, including micro-simulation, fie...

Concurrent Flow Lanes - Phase II

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-04-17

This report provides the findings from a research effort designed to ascertain whether or not a chosen simulation software platform, the VISSIM micro-simulation platform, provides a suitable environment for modeling and analyzing traffic operations, ...

Calibration of microsimulation models for multimodal freight networks.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-06-01

This research presents a framework for incorporating the unique operating characteristics of multi-modal freight networks : into the calibration process for microscopic traffic simulation models. Because of the nature of heavy freight movements : in ...

Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) work zone driver model software

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-11-01

FHWA and the U.S. Department of Transportation (USDOT) Volpe Center are developing a work zone car-following model and simulation software that interfaces with existing microsimulation tools, enabling more accurate simulation of car-following through...

Project 0-1800 : NAFTA impacts on operations : executive summary

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2001-07-01

Project 0-1800 pioneered the use of modern micro-simulation models to analyze the complex procedures involved in international border crossing in Texas. Animated models simulate the entire southbound commercial traffic flow in two important internati...

Improving the effectiveness of smart work zone technologies.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-11-01

This project evaluates the effectiveness of sensor network systems for work zone traffic estimation. The comparative analysis is : performed on a work zone modeled in microsimulation and calibrated with field data from two Illinois work zones. Realis...

Understanding the effects of different HIV transmission models in individual-based microsimulation of HIV epidemic dynamics in people who inject drugs

PubMed Central

MONTEIRO, J.F.G.; ESCUDERO, D.J.; WEINREB, C.; FLANIGAN, T.; GALEA, S.; FRIEDMAN, S.R.; MARSHALL, B.D.L.

2017-01-01

SUMMARY We investigated how different models of HIV transmission, and assumptions regarding the distribution of unprotected sex and syringe-sharing events (‘risk acts’), affect quantitative understanding of HIV transmission process in people who inject drugs (PWID). The individual-based model simulated HIV transmission in a dynamic sexual and injecting network representing New York City. We constructed four HIV transmission models: model 1, constant probabilities; model 2, random number of sexual and parenteral acts; model 3, viral load individual assigned; and model 4, two groups of partnerships (low and high risk). Overall, models with less heterogeneity were more sensitive to changes in numbers risk acts, producing HIV incidence up to four times higher than that empirically observed. Although all models overestimated HIV incidence, micro-simulations with greater heterogeneity in the HIV transmission modelling process produced more robust results and better reproduced empirical epidemic dynamics. PMID:26753627

An Epidemiological Model for Examining Marijuana Use over the Life Course

PubMed Central

Paddock, Susan M.; Kilmer, Beau; Caulkins, Jonathan P.; Booth, Marika J.; Pacula, Rosalie L.

2012-01-01

Trajectories of drug use are usually studied empirically by following over time persons sampled from either the general population (most often youth and young adults) or from heavy or problematic users (e.g., arrestees or those in treatment). The former, population-based samples, describe early career development, but miss the years of use that generate the greatest social costs. The latter, selected populations, help to summarize the most problematic use, but cannot easily explain how people become problem users nor are they representative of the population as a whole. This paper shows how microsimulation can synthesize both sorts of data within a single analytical framework, while retaining heterogeneous influences that can impact drug use decisions over the life course. The RAND Marijuana Microsimulation Model is constructed for marijuana use, validated, and then used to demonstrate how such models can be used to evaluate alternative policy options aimed at reducing use over the life course. PMID:23236590

Large-scale multi-agent transportation simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cetin, Nurhan; Nagel, Kai; Raney, Bryan; Voellmy, Andreas

2002-08-01

It is now possible to microsimulate the traffic of whole metropolitan areas with 10 million travelers or more, "micro" meaning that each traveler is resolved individually as a particle. In contrast to physics or chemistry, these particles have internal intelligence; for example, they know where they are going. This means that a transportation simulation project will have, besides the traffic microsimulation, modules which model this intelligent behavior. The most important modules are for route generation and for demand generation. Demand is generated by each individual in the simulation making a plan of activities such as sleeping, eating, working, shopping, etc. If activities are planned at different locations, they obviously generate demand for transportation. This however is not enough since those plans are influenced by congestion which initially is not known. This is solved via a relaxation method, which means iterating back and forth between the activities/routes generation and the traffic simulation.

Projections of preventable risks for cardiovascular disease in Canada to 2021: a microsimulation modelling approach

PubMed Central

Manuel, Douglas G.; Tuna, Meltem; Hennessy, Deirdre; Okhmatovskaia, Anya; Finès, Philippe; Tanuseputro, Peter; Tu, Jack V.; Flanagan, William

2014-01-01

Background Reductions in preventable risks associated with cardiovascular disease have contributed to a steady decrease in its incidence over the past 50 years in most developed countries. However, it is unclear whether this trend will continue. Our objective was to examine future risk by projecting trends in preventable risk factors in Canada to 2021. Methods We created a population-based microsimulation model using national data on births, deaths and migration; socioeconomic data; cardiovascular disease risk factors; and algorithms for changes in these risk factors (based on sociodemographic characteristics and previous cardiovascular disease risk). An initial population of 22.5 million people, representing the Canadian adult population in 2001, had 13 characteristics including the risk factors used in clinical risk prediction. There were 6.1 million potential exposure profiles for each person each year. Outcome measures included annual prevalence of risk factors (smoking, obesity, diabetes, hypertension and lipid levels) and of co-occurring risks. Results From 2003 to 2009, the projected risks of cardiovascular disease based on the microsimulation model closely approximated those based on national surveys. Except for obesity and diabetes, all risk factors were projected to decrease through to 2021. The largest projected decreases were for the prevalence of smoking (from 25.7% in 2001 to 17.7% in 2021) and uncontrolled hypertension (from 16.1% to 10.8%). Between 2015 and 2017, obesity was projected to surpass smoking as the most prevalent risk factor. Interpretation Risks of cardiovascular disease are projected to decrease modestly in Canada, leading to a likely continuing decline in its incidence. PMID:25077135

Using microsimulation to evaluate the effects of advanced vehicle technologies on congestion.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-06-30

Advanced driver assistance technologies are continuously being developed to enhance traffic : safety. Evaluations of such technologies typically focus on safety and there has been limited : research on the impacts of such technologies on traffic oper...

Using Microsimulation to Evaluate the Effects of Advanced Vehicle Technologies on Congestion

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-06-30

Advanced driver assistance technologies are continuously being developed to enhance traffic safety. Evaluations of such technologies typically focus on safety and there has been limited research on the impacts of such technologies on traffic operatio...

Large-Scale Traffic Microsimulation From An MPO Perspective

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1997-01-01

One potential advancement of the four-step travel model process is the forecasting and simulation of individual activities and travel. A common concern with such an approach is that the data and computational requirements for a large-scale, regional ...

Empirically-based performance assessment & simulation of pedestrian behavior at unsignalized crossings.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-09-01

The objective of this research was to provide an improved understanding of pedestrian-vehicle interaction : at mid-block pedestrian crossings and develop methods that can be used in traffic operational analysis and : microsimulation packages. Models ...

An integrated regional planning/microsimulation model for the Buffalo/Niagara Falls area

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-04-01

This presentation examines the major planning issues facing the Buffalo and Niagara Falls area, which include freight, cross border congestion, and domestic issues. A Transportation Analysis and Simulation System (TRANSIMS) model is discussed that co...

Evaluation of Urban Freight Deliveries using Microsimulation and Surrogate Safety Measures

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2018-02-01

Freight deliveries on signalized urban streets are known to cause lane blockages during deliveries. When delivery vehicles block lanes of traffic near signalized intersections, the capacity of the intersection is affected. Current practice is for tra...

Exploring corridor operations in the vicinity of a diverging diamond interchange (DDI) : final report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-06-27

This research effort examined the corridor impacts of various signal timing and geometric strategies to improve the : operational challenges observed at DDIs. A microsimulation analysis was conducted using a calibrated and validated DDI : modeled aft...

Introduction of Cooperative Vehicle-to-Infrastructure Systems to Improve Speed Harmonization

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-03-01

This project executed a preliminary experiment of vehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I)-based speed harmonization in which speed guidance was communicated directly to vehicles. This experiment involved a set of micro-simulation experiments and a limited nu...

INTEGRATING MESO-AND MICRO-SIMULATION MODELS TO EVALUATE TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES, YEAR 2

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-07-04

In the Year 1 Report, the Arizona State University (ASU) Project Team described the development of a hierarchical multi-resolution simulation platform to test proactive traffic management strategies. The scope was to integrate an easily available mic...

The design of a comprehensive microsimulator of household vehicle fleet composition, utilization, and evolution.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-01-01

The report describes a comprehensive vehicle fleet composition, utilization, and evolution : simulator that can be used to forecast household vehicle ownership and mileage by type of : vehicle over time. The components of the simulator are developed ...

Analysis of capacity and traffic operations impacts of the World Trade Bridge in Laredo

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2001-07-01

Project 0-1800 pioneered the use of modern micro-simulation software to analyze the complex procedures involved in international border crossings. The animated models simulate the entire southbound commercial traffic flow, starting with U.S. Customs ...

A Framework for Evaluating Energy and Emissions of Connected and Automated Vehicles through Traffic Microsimulations

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2018-01-07

Connected and automated vehicles (CAV) are poised to transform surface transportation systems in the United States. Near-term CAV technologies like cooperative adaptive cruise control (CACC) have the potential to deliver energy efficiency and air qua...

Comparing microscopic activity-based and traditional models of travel demand : an Austin area case study

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2007-09-01

Two competing approaches to travel demand modeling exist today. The more traditional 4-step travel demand models rely on aggregate demographic data at a traffic analysis zone (TAZ) level. Activity-based microsimulation methods employ more robus...

Integrating meso- and micro-simulation models to evaluate traffic management strategies - year 1 : final report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-06-01

In this project the researchers developed a hierarchical multi-resolution traffic simulation system for metropolitan areas, referred to as MetroSim. Categorically, the focus is on integrating two types of simulation: microscopic simulation in which i...

Modeling the clinical and economic implications of obesity using microsimulation.

PubMed

Su, W; Huang, J; Chen, F; Iacobucci, W; Mocarski, M; Dall, T M; Perreault, L

2015-01-01

The obesity epidemic has raised considerable public health concerns, but there are few validated longitudinal simulation models examining the human and economic cost of obesity. This paper describes a microsimulation model as a comprehensive tool to understand the relationship between body weight, health, and economic outcomes. Patient health and economic outcomes were simulated annually over 10 years using a Markov-based microsimulation model. The obese population examined is nationally representative of obese adults in the US from the 2005-2012 National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys, while a matched normal weight population was constructed to have similar demographics as the obese population during the same period. Prediction equations for onset of obesity-related comorbidities, medical expenditures, economic outcomes, mortality, and quality-of-life came from published trials and studies supplemented with original research. Model validation followed International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research practice guidelines. Among surviving adults, relative to a matched normal weight population, obese adults averaged $3900 higher medical expenditures in the initial year, growing to $4600 higher expenditures in year 10. Obese adults had higher initial prevalence and higher simulated onset of comorbidities as they aged. Over 10 years, excess medical expenditures attributed to obesity averaged $4280 annually-ranging from $2820 for obese category I to $5100 for obese category II, and $8710 for obese category III. Each excess kilogram of weight contributed to $140 higher annual costs, on average, ranging from $136 (obese I) to $152 (obese III). Poor health associated with obesity increased work absenteeism and mortality, and lowered employment probability, personal income, and quality-of-life. This validated model helps illustrate why obese adults have higher medical and indirect costs relative to normal weight adults, and shows that medical costs for obese adults rise more rapidly with aging relative to normal weight adults.

Implementing Generalized Additive Models to Estimate the Expected Value of Sample Information in a Microsimulation Model: Results of Three Case Studies.

PubMed

Rabideau, Dustin J; Pei, Pamela P; Walensky, Rochelle P; Zheng, Amy; Parker, Robert A

2018-02-01

The expected value of sample information (EVSI) can help prioritize research but its application is hampered by computational infeasibility, especially for complex models. We investigated an approach by Strong and colleagues to estimate EVSI by applying generalized additive models (GAM) to results generated from a probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA). For 3 potential HIV prevention and treatment strategies, we estimated life expectancy and lifetime costs using the Cost-effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications (CEPAC) model, a complex patient-level microsimulation model of HIV progression. We fitted a GAM-a flexible regression model that estimates the functional form as part of the model fitting process-to the incremental net monetary benefits obtained from the CEPAC PSA. For each case study, we calculated the expected value of partial perfect information (EVPPI) using both the conventional nested Monte Carlo approach and the GAM approach. EVSI was calculated using the GAM approach. For all 3 case studies, the GAM approach consistently gave similar estimates of EVPPI compared with the conventional approach. The EVSI behaved as expected: it increased and converged to EVPPI for larger sample sizes. For each case study, generating the PSA results for the GAM approach required 3 to 4 days on a shared cluster, after which EVPPI and EVSI across a range of sample sizes were evaluated in minutes. The conventional approach required approximately 5 weeks for the EVPPI calculation alone. Estimating EVSI using the GAM approach with results from a PSA dramatically reduced the time required to conduct a computationally intense project, which would otherwise have been impractical. Using the GAM approach, we can efficiently provide policy makers with EVSI estimates, even for complex patient-level microsimulation models.

The long-term economic impacts of arthritis through lost productive life years: results from an Australian microsimulation model.

PubMed

Schofield, Deborah; Cunich, Michelle; Shrestha, Rupendra N; Tanton, Robert; Veerman, Lennert; Kelly, Simon; Passey, Megan E

2018-05-24

While the direct (medical) costs of arthritis are regularly reported in cost of illness studies, the 'true' cost to indivdiuals and goverment requires the calculation of the indirect costs as well including lost productivity due to ill-health. Respondents aged 45-64 in the ABS Survey of Disability, Ageing and Carers 2003, 2009 formed the base population. We projected the indirect costs of arthritis using Health&WealthMOD2030 - Australia's first microsimulation model on the long-term impacts of ill-health in older workers - which incorporated outputs from established microsimulation models (STINMOD and APPSIM), population and labour force projections from Treasury, and chronic conditions trends for Australia. All costs of arthritis were expressed in real 2013 Australian dollars, adjusted for inflation over time. We estimated there are 54,000 people aged 45-64 with lost PLYs due to arthritis in 2015, increasing to 61,000 in 2030 (13% increase). In 2015, people with lost PLYs are estimated to receive AU$706.12 less in total income and AU$311.67 more in welfare payments per week than full-time workers without arthritis, and pay no income tax on average. National costs include an estimated loss of AU$1.5 billion in annual income in 2015, increasing to AU$2.4 billion in 2030 (59% increase). Lost annual taxation revenue was projected to increase from AU$0.4 billion in 2015 to $0.5 billion in 2030 (56% increase). We projected a loss in GDP of AU$6.2 billion in 2015, increasing to AU$8.2 billion in 2030. Significant costs of arthritis through lost PLYs are incurred by individuals and government. The effectiveness of arthritis interventions should be judged not only on healthcare use but quality of life and economic wellbeing.

Development of an accessibility formulation to measure customers' evaluations of demand-responsive transit (DRT) systems : final report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-03-01

This report discusses the application of the paratransit microsimulation patron accessibility analysis tool : developed by the University of Texas researchers. The research team worked on updating the DRT Accessibility : Tool developed by the Texas D...

Applying analysis tools in planning for operations : case study #4 -- application of microsimulation in combination with travel demand models

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-09-01

More and more, transportation system operators are seeing the benefits of strengthening links between planning and operations. A critical element in improving transportation decision-making and the effectiveness of transportation systems related to o...

MUSIDH, multiple use of simulated demographic histories, a novel method to reduce computation time in microsimulation models of infectious diseases.

PubMed

Fischer, E A J; De Vlas, S J; Richardus, J H; Habbema, J D F

2008-09-01

Microsimulation of infectious diseases requires simulation of many life histories of interacting individuals. In particular, relatively rare infections such as leprosy need to be studied in very large populations. Computation time increases disproportionally with the size of the simulated population. We present a novel method, MUSIDH, an acronym for multiple use of simulated demographic histories, to reduce computation time. Demographic history refers to the processes of birth, death and all other demographic events that should be unrelated to the natural course of an infection, thus non-fatal infections. MUSIDH attaches a fixed number of infection histories to each demographic history, and these infection histories interact as if being the infection history of separate individuals. With two examples, mumps and leprosy, we show that the method can give a factor 50 reduction in computation time at the cost of a small loss in precision. The largest reductions are obtained for rare infections with complex demographic histories.

The impact of vehicle moving violations and freeway traffic flow on crash risk: An application of plugin development for microsimulation.

PubMed

Wang, Junhua; Kong, Yumeng; Fu, Ting; Stipancic, Joshua

2017-01-01

This paper presents the use of the Aimsun microsimulation program to simulate vehicle violating behaviors and observe their impact on road traffic crash risk. Plugins for violations of speeding, slow driving, and abrupt stopping were developed using Aimsun's API and SDK module. A safety analysis plugin for investigating probability of rear-end collisions was developed, and a method for analyzing collision risk is proposed. A Fuzzy C-mean Clustering algorithm was developed to identify high risk states in different road segments over time. Results of a simulation experiment based on the G15 Expressway in Shanghai showed that abrupt stopping had the greatest impact on increasing collision risk, and the impact of violations increased with traffic volume. The methodology allows for the evaluation and monitoring of risks, alerting of road hazards, and identification of hotspots, and could be applied to the operations of existing facilities or planning of future ones.

The impact of vehicle moving violations and freeway traffic flow on crash risk: An application of plugin development for microsimulation

PubMed Central

Kong, Yumeng; Stipancic, Joshua

2017-01-01

This paper presents the use of the Aimsun microsimulation program to simulate vehicle violating behaviors and observe their impact on road traffic crash risk. Plugins for violations of speeding, slow driving, and abrupt stopping were developed using Aimsun’s API and SDK module. A safety analysis plugin for investigating probability of rear-end collisions was developed, and a method for analyzing collision risk is proposed. A Fuzzy C-mean Clustering algorithm was developed to identify high risk states in different road segments over time. Results of a simulation experiment based on the G15 Expressway in Shanghai showed that abrupt stopping had the greatest impact on increasing collision risk, and the impact of violations increased with traffic volume. The methodology allows for the evaluation and monitoring of risks, alerting of road hazards, and identification of hotspots, and could be applied to the operations of existing facilities or planning of future ones. PMID:28886141

Compulsory Birth Control and Fertility Measures in India.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Halli, S. S.

1983-01-01

Discussion of possible applications of the microsimulation approach to analysis of population policy proposes compulsory sterilization policy for all of India. Topics covered include India's population problem, methods for generating a distribution of couples to be sterilized, model validation, data utilized, data analysis, program limitations,…

Microsimulation of household and firm behaviors : coupled models of land use and travel demand in Austin, Texas

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2007-12-01

Households and firms are key drivers of urban growth, yet models for forecasting travel demand often : ignore their dynamic evolution and several key decision processes. An understanding of household and : firm behavior over time is critical in antic...

Forecasting Pell Program Applications Using Structural Aggregate Models.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cavin, Edward S.

1995-01-01

Demand for Pell Grant financial aid has become difficult to predict when using the current microsimulation model. This paper proposes an alternative model that uses aggregate data (based on individuals' microlevel decisions and macrodata on family incomes, college costs, and opportunity wages) and avoids some limitations of simple linear models.…

Evaluation of transit signal priority strategies for 400 south light rail line in Salt Lake County, UT : part II.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-11-01

The goal of this study is to evaluate light rail priority strategies along the 400 S / 500 S corridor in Salt Lake County through analyzing benefits and impacts of the priority on transit and vehicular traffic through microsimulation. The field of st...

Variations in Driver Behavior: An Analysis of Car-Following Behavior Heterogeneity as a Function of Road Type and Traffic Condition

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-11-15

Microsimulation modeling is a tool used by practitioners and researchers to predict and evaluate the flow of traffic on real transportation networks. These models are used in practice to inform decisions and thus must reflect a high level of accuracy...

Depression prevention, labour force participation and income of older working aged Australians: A microsimulation economic analysis.

PubMed

Veerman, J Lennert; Shrestha, Rupendra N; Mihalopoulos, Cathrine; Passey, Megan E; Kelly, Simon J; Tanton, Robert; Callander, Emily J; Schofield, Deborah J

2015-05-01

Depression has economic consequences not only for the health system, but also for individuals and society. This study aims to quantify the potential economic impact of five-yearly screening for sub-syndromal depression in general practice among Australians aged 45-64 years, followed by a group-based psychological intervention to prevent progression to depression. We used an epidemiological simulation model to estimate reductions in prevalence of depression, and a microsimulation model, Health&WealthMOD2030, to estimate the impact on labour force participation, personal income, savings, taxation revenue and welfare expenditure. Group therapy is estimated to prevent around 5,200 prevalent cases of depression (2.2%) and add about 520 people to the labour force. Private incomes are projected to increase by $19 million per year, tax revenues by $2.4 million, and transfer payments are reduced by $2.6 million. Group-based psychological intervention to prevent depression could result in considerable economic benefits in addition to its clinical effects. © The Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Psychiatrists 2014.

Two models for microsimulation of family life cycle and family structure.

PubMed

Bertino, S; Pinnelli, A; Vichi, M

1988-01-01

2 models are proposed for the microsimulation of the family and analysis of family structure and life cycle. These models were devised primarily for teaching purposes. The families are composed of 3 generations (parents, grandparents, children). Cohabitation is not considered. The 1st model is governed by a transition mechanism based on the rules of a Markov multidimensional, nonhonogeneous chain. The 2nd model is based on stochastic point processes. Input data comprise annual mortality probability according to 1) sex, 2) age, 3) civil status, 4) annual probability of 1st marriage, 5) age combinations between the spouses, and 6) the probability of having 1, 2, or 3 children at 6 months intervals from the previous event (marriage or birth of nth child). The applications of the 1st model are presented using 2 mortality and fertility hypotheses (high and low) and a nuptiality hypothesis (West European nature). The various features of family composition are analyzed according to the duration of a couple's marriage and the age of the individual, as well as the characteristic features of the individual and family life cycle given these 2 demographic conditions.

Water immersion during labor and birth: is there an extra cost for hospitals?

PubMed

Poder, Thomas G

2017-06-01

Water immersion during labor and birth is growing in popularity, and many hospitals are now considering offering this service to laboring women. Some advantages of water immersion are demonstrated, but others remain uncertain, and particularly, few studies have examined the financial impact of such a device on hospitals. This study simulated what could be the extra cost of water immersion for hospitals. Clinical outcomes were drawn from the results of systematic reviews already published, and cost units were those used in the Quebec health network. A decision tree was used with microsimulations of representative laboring women. Sensitivity analyses were performed as regards analgesic use and labor duration. Microsimulations indicated an extra cost between $166.41 and $274.76 (2014 Canadian dollars) for each laboring woman as regards the scenario considered. The average extra cost was $221.12 (95% confidence interval, 219.97-222.28). While water immersion allows better clinical outcomes, implementation and other costs are higher than the savings generated, which leads to a small extra cost to allow women to potentially have more relaxation and less pain. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Bayesian evaluation of budgets for endemic disease control: An example using management changes to reduce milk somatic cell count early in the first lactation of Irish dairy cows.

PubMed

Archer, S C; Mc Coy, F; Wapenaar, W; Green, M J

2014-01-01

The aim of this research was to determine budgets for specific management interventions to control heifer mastitis in Irish dairy herds as an example of evidence synthesis and 1-step Bayesian micro-simulation in a veterinary context. Budgets were determined for different decision makers based on their willingness to pay. Reducing the prevalence of heifers with a high milk somatic cell count (SCC) early in the first lactation could be achieved through herd level management interventions for pre- and peri-partum heifers, however the cost effectiveness of these interventions is unknown. A synthesis of multiple sources of evidence, accounting for variability and uncertainty in the available data is invaluable to inform decision makers around likely economic outcomes of investing in disease control measures. One analytical approach to this is Bayesian micro-simulation, where the trajectory of different individuals undergoing specific interventions is simulated. The classic micro-simulation framework was extended to encompass synthesis of evidence from 2 separate statistical models and previous research, with the outcome for an individual cow or herd assessed in terms of changes in lifetime milk yield, disposal risk, and likely financial returns conditional on the interventions being simultaneously applied. The 3 interventions tested were storage of bedding inside, decreasing transition yard stocking density, and spreading of bedding evenly in the calving area. Budgets for the interventions were determined based on the minimum expected return on investment, and the probability of the desired outcome. Budgets for interventions to control heifer mastitis were highly dependent on the decision maker's willingness to pay, and hence minimum expected return on investment. Understanding the requirements of decision makers and their rational spending limits would be useful for the development of specific interventions for particular farms to control heifer mastitis, and other endemic diseases. Copyright © 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Dynamic Microsimulation Model of Impoverishment among Elderly Women in Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Inagaki, Seiichi

2018-03-01

The increasing poverty rate for elderly women is a growing concern in Japan and is generally due to their lifestyle changes and the public pension system based on the pre-1980s (old) lifestyle. At that time, women were expected to get married and become homemakers. Therefore, the public pension system is generous for married women and widows but not for never-married and divorced women. Using a dynamic microsimulation model, the Integrated Analytical Model for Household Simulation (INAHSIM), previous research has shown that poverty rates for elderly people will increase significantly in the future due to changes in nuptiality behavior after the 1980s. However, this approach is an indirect method, and the mechanism of impoverishment remains unclear. This study uses the same dynamic microsimulation model but attempts a more direct approach to interpret the effects of these behavioral changes on poverty rates for elderly women. Specifically, under the baseline scenario, it makes future projections on key distributions related to poverty by marital status and illustrates how they will face the poverty problem. It shows the future projections of (1) the distribution of pension amounts by gender and marital status, (2) poverty rates for elderly women by marital status, and (3) poverty rates for elderly people by gender. After the 1980s in Japan, the marriage rate decreased and the divorce rate increased significantly. Nevertheless, society still suffers from wage inequality between men and women. As a result, the number of never-married or divorced women will increase and these women will receive poor pension benefits due to an unfavorable public pension system. In addition, they have a higher risk of living in a single-person household because they have no or very few children. In the end, they will face the risk of poverty and raise the overall poverty rate.

Redistributing Wealth to Families: The Advantages of the MYRIADE Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Legendre, Francois; Lorgnet, Jean-Paul; Thibault, Florence

2005-01-01

This study aims to shed light on the main characteristics of the French system for redistributing wealth to families through tax revenues and social transfers. For the purposes of this exercise, the authors used the MYRIADE microsimulation model, which covers most of the redistribution system, though it is limited to monetary flows such as family…

Determinants of Off-Farm Income and Its Local Patterns: A Spatial Microsimulation of Dutch Farmers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

van Leeuwen, Eveline; Dekkers, Jasper

2013-01-01

Apart from their contribution to the local economy in terms of input, output and employment, farmers also play a major role in shaping and maintaining our (natural) environment and landscapes. However, with the (planned) decrease in agricultural subsidies, these activities are at risk. For that reason, it would be useful when farmers could benefit…

Iterated transportation simulations for Dallas and Portland

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nagel, K.; Simon, P.; Rickert, M.

1998-09-02

The goal of the TRansportation ANalysis and SIMulation System (TRANSIMS) is to combine the most important aspects of human decision-making related to transportation, from activities planning (sleep, work, eat, shop,...) via modal and route planning to driving, into a single, consistent methodological and software framework. This is meant to combine the functionalities of activities-based travel demand generation, modal choice and route assignment, and micro-simulation. TRANSIMS attempts to employ advanced methodologies in all these modules. Yet, it is probably the overall framework that is the most important part of this attempt. It is, for example, possible to replace the TRANSIMS microsimulationmore » by another micro-simulation that uses the same input and generates the same output. TRANSIMS uses specific regions as examples in order to ensure that the technology is rooted in the real world. Until about the middle of 1997, an approximately five miles by five miles area in Dallas/Texas was used. Since then, TRANSIMS has moved to using data from Portland/Oregon; a case study for this region is planned to be completed by the end of the year 2000. In this paper the authors give short descriptions of these projects and give references to related publications.« less

Modelling approaches: the case of schizophrenia.

PubMed

Heeg, Bart M S; Damen, Joep; Buskens, Erik; Caleo, Sue; de Charro, Frank; van Hout, Ben A

2008-01-01

Schizophrenia is a chronic disease characterized by periods of relative stability interrupted by acute episodes (or relapses). The course of the disease may vary considerably between patients. Patient histories show considerable inter- and even intra-individual variability. We provide a critical assessment of the advantages and disadvantages of three modelling techniques that have been used in schizophrenia: decision trees, (cohort and micro-simulation) Markov models and discrete event simulation models. These modelling techniques are compared in terms of building time, data requirements, medico-scientific experience, simulation time, clinical representation, and their ability to deal with patient heterogeneity, the timing of events, prior events, patient interaction, interaction between co-variates and variability (first-order uncertainty). We note that, depending on the research question, the optimal modelling approach should be selected based on the expected differences between the comparators, the number of co-variates, the number of patient subgroups, the interactions between co-variates, and simulation time. Finally, it is argued that in case micro-simulation is required for the cost-effectiveness analysis of schizophrenia treatments, a discrete event simulation model is best suited to accurately capture all of the relevant interdependencies in this chronic, highly heterogeneous disease with limited long-term follow-up data.

Chapter 7: Description of MISCAN-lung, the Erasmus MC Lung Cancer microsimulation model for evaluating cancer control interventions.

PubMed

Schultz, F W; Boer, R; de Koning, H J

2012-07-01

The MISCAN-lung model was designed to simulate population trends in lung cancer (LC) for comprehensive surveillance of the disease, to relate past exposure to risk factors to (observed) LC incidence and mortality, and to estimate the impact of cancer-control interventions. MISCAN-lung employs the technique of stochastic microsimulation of life histories affected by risk factors. It includes the two-stage clonal expansion model for carcinogenesis and a detailed LC progression model; the latter is specifically intended for the evaluation of screenings. This article elucidates further the principles of MISCAN-lung and describes its application to a comparative study within the CISNET Lung Working Group on the impact of tobacco control on U.S. LC mortality. MISCAN-lung yields an estimate of the number of LC deaths avoided during 1975-2000. The potential number of avoidable LC deaths, had everybody quit smoking in 1965, is 2.2 million; 750,000 deaths (30%) were avoided in the United States due to actual tobacco control interventions. The model fits in the actual tobacco-control scenario, providing credibility to the estimates of other scenarios, although considering survey-reported smoking trends alone has limitations. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

Alzheimer's and other dementias in Canada, 2011 to 2031: a microsimulation Population Health Modeling (POHEM) study of projected prevalence, health burden, health services, and caregiving use.

PubMed

Manuel, Douglas G; Garner, Rochelle; Finès, Philippe; Bancej, Christina; Flanagan, William; Tu, Karen; Reimer, Kim; Chambers, Larry W; Bernier, Julie

2016-01-01

Worldwide, there is concern that increases in the prevalence of dementia will result in large demands for caregivers and supportive services that will be challenging to address. Previous dementia projections have either been simple extrapolations of prevalence or macrosimulations based on dementia incidence. A population-based microsimulation model of Alzheimer's and related dementias (POHEM:Neurological) was created using Canadian demographic data, estimates of dementia incidence, health status (health-related quality of life and mortality risk), health care costs and informal caregiving use. Dementia prevalence and 12 other measures were projected to 2031. Between 2011 and 2031, there was a projected two-fold increase in the number of people living with dementia in Canada (1.6-fold increase in prevalence rate). By 2031, the projected informal (unpaid) caregiving for dementia in Canada was two billion hours per year, or 100 h per year per Canadian of working age. The projected increase in dementia prevalence was largely related to the expected increase in older Canadians, with projections sensitive to changes in the age of dementia onset.

A Metabolic–Epidemiological Microsimulation Model to Estimate the Changes in Energy Intake and Physical Activity Necessary to Meet the Healthy People 2020 Obesity Objective

PubMed Central

Seligman, Hilary; Winkleby, Marilyn

2014-01-01

Objectives. We combined a metabolic and an epidemiological model of obesity to estimate changes in calorie intake and physical activity necessary to achieve the Healthy People 2020 objective of reducing adult obesity prevalence from 33.9% to 30.5%. Methods. We used the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (1999–2010) to construct and validate a microsimulation model of the US population aged 10 years and older, for 2010 to 2020. Results. Obesity prevalence is expected to shift toward older adults, and disparities are expected to widen between White, higher-income groups and minority, lower-income groups if recent calorie consumption and expenditure trends continue into the future. Although a less than 10% reduction in daily calorie intake or increase in physical activity would in theory achieve the Healthy People 2020 objective, no single population-level intervention is likely to achieve the target alone, and individual weight-loss attempts are even more unlikely to achieve the target. Conclusions. Changes in calorie intake and physical activity portend rising inequalities in obesity prevalence. These changes require multiple simultaneous population interventions. PMID:24832140

A Collaborative Approach to Bridging the Research-Policy Gap through the Development of Policy Advice Software

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Milne, Barry John; Lay-Yee, Roy; McLay, Jessica; Tobias, Martin; Tuohy, Pat; Armstrong, Ann; Lynn, Robert; Pearson, Janet; Mannion, Oliver; Davis, Peter

2014-01-01

We have developed a software-based tool to support a dynamic micro-simulation model of life-course development (to age 13) as an aid to policy makers assessing the impact of policies affecting children. We demonstrate how this approach bridges the research-policy gap by creating: (1) an easy transfer of evidence in a form that policymakers can use…

Earnings Sharing in the U.S. Social Security System: A Microsimulation Analysis of Future Female Retirees

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Iams, Howard M.; Reznik, Gayle L.; Tamborini, Christopher R.

2010-01-01

Purpose: As part of an ongoing effort to analyze the distributional implications of potential policy reforms to the U.S. Social Security system, we consider the widely discussed reform of earnings sharing. Such an approach has been viewed as a way to "update" Social Security's family benefits based on marital status and as a means to…

The impact of the rising colorectal cancer incidence in young adults on the optimal age to start screening: Microsimulation analysis I to inform the American Cancer Society colorectal cancer screening guideline.

PubMed

Peterse, Elisabeth F P; Meester, Reinier G S; Siegel, Rebecca L; Chen, Jennifer C; Dwyer, Andrea; Ahnen, Dennis J; Smith, Robert A; Zauber, Ann G; Lansdorp-Vogelaar, Iris

2018-05-30

In 2016, the Microsimulation Screening Analysis-Colon (MISCAN-Colon) model was used to inform the US Preventive Services Task Force colorectal cancer (CRC) screening guidelines. In this study, 1 of 2 microsimulation analyses to inform the update of the American Cancer Society CRC screening guideline, the authors re-evaluated the optimal screening strategies in light of the increase in CRC diagnosed in young adults. The authors adjusted the MISCAN-Colon model to reflect the higher CRC incidence in young adults, who were assumed to carry forward escalated disease risk as they age. Life-years gained (LYG; benefit), the number of colonoscopies (COL; burden) and the ratios of incremental burden to benefit (efficiency ratio [ER] = ΔCOL/ΔLYG) were projected for different screening strategies. Strategies differed with respect to test modality, ages to start (40 years, 45 years, and 50 years) and ages to stop (75 years, 80 years, and 85 years) screening, and screening intervals (depending on screening modality). The authors then determined the model-recommended strategies in a similar way as was done for the US Preventive Services Task Force, using ER thresholds in accordance with the previously accepted ER of 39. Because of the higher CRC incidence, model-predicted LYG from screening increased compared with the previous analyses. Consequently, the balance of burden to benefit of screening improved and now 10-yearly colonoscopy screening starting at age 45 years resulted in an ER of 32. Other recommended strategies included fecal immunochemical testing annually, flexible sigmoidoscopy screening every 5 years, and computed tomographic colonography every 5 years. This decision-analysis suggests that in light of the increase in CRC incidence among young adults, screening may be offered earlier than has previously been recommended. Cancer 2018. © 2018 The Authors. Cancer published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of American Cancer Society. © 2018 The Authors. Cancer published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of American Cancer Society.

"Conditional Scholarships" for HIV/AIDS Health Workers: Educating and Retaining the Workforce to Provide Antiretroviral Treatment in Sub-Saharan Africa. NBER Working Paper No. 13396

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Barnighausen, Till; Bloom, David E.

2007-01-01

Without large increases in the number of health workers to treat HIV/AIDS (HAHW), most developing countries will be unable to achieve universal coverage with antiretroviral treatment (ART), leading to large numbers of potentially avoidable deaths among people living with HIV/AIDS. We use Markov Monte Carlo microsimulation to estimate the expected…

Community-Engaged Modeling of Geographic and Demographic Patterns of Multiple Public Health Risk Factors

PubMed Central

Basra, Komal; Fabian, M. Patricia; Holberger, Raymond R.; French, Robert

2017-01-01

Many health risk factors are intervention targets within communities, but information regarding high-risk subpopulations is rarely available at a geographic resolution that is relevant for community-scale interventions. Researchers and community partners in New Bedford, Massachusetts (USA) collaboratively identified high-priority behaviors and health outcomes of interest available in the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS). We developed multivariable regression models from the BRFSS explaining variability in exercise, fruit and vegetable consumption, body mass index, and diabetes prevalence as a function of demographic and behavioral characteristics, and linked these models with population microdata developed using spatial microsimulation to characterize high-risk populations and locations. Individuals with lower income and educational attainment had lower rates of multiple health-promoting behaviors (e.g., fruit and vegetable consumption and exercise) and higher rates of self-reported diabetes. Our models in combination with the simulated population microdata identified census tracts with an elevated percentage of high-risk subpopulations, information community partners can use to prioritize funding and intervention programs. Multi-stressor modeling using data from public databases and microsimulation methods for characterizing high-resolution spatial patterns of population attributes, coupled with strong community partner engagement, can provide significant insight for intervention. Our methodology is transferrable to other communities. PMID:28684710

[Micro-simulation of firms' heterogeneity on pollution intensity and regional characteristics].

PubMed

Zhao, Nan; Liu, Yi; Chen, Ji-Ning

2009-11-01

In the same industrial sector, heterogeneity of pollution intensity exists among firms. There are some errors if using sector's average pollution intensity, which are calculated by limited number of firms in environmental statistic database to represent the sector's regional economic-environmental status. Based on the production function which includes environmental depletion as input, a micro-simulation model on firms' operational decision making is proposed. Then the heterogeneity of firms' pollution intensity can be mechanically described. Taking the mechanical manufacturing sector in Deyang city, 2005 as the case, the model's parameters were estimated. And the actual COD emission intensities of environmental statistic firms can be properly matched by the simulation. The model's results also show that the regional average COD emission intensity calculated by the environmental statistic firms (0.002 6 t per 10 000 yuan fixed asset, 0.001 5 t per 10 000 yuan production value) is lower than the regional average intensity calculated by all the firms in the region (0.003 0 t per 10 000 yuan fixed asset, 0.002 3 t per 10 000 yuan production value). The difference among average intensities in the six counties is significant as well. These regional characteristics of pollution intensity attribute to the sector's inner-structure (firms' scale distribution, technology distribution) and its spatial deviation.

School-Based Influenza Vaccination: Health and Economic Impact of Maine's 2009 Influenza Vaccination Program.

PubMed

Basurto-Dávila, Ricardo; Meltzer, Martin I; Mills, Dora A; Beeler Asay, Garrett R; Cho, Bo-Hyun; Graitcer, Samuel B; Dube, Nancy L; Thompson, Mark G; Patel, Suchita A; Peasah, Samuel K; Ferdinands, Jill M; Gargiullo, Paul; Messonnier, Mark; Shay, David K

2017-12-01

To estimate the societal economic and health impacts of Maine's school-based influenza vaccination (SIV) program during the 2009 A(H1N1) influenza pandemic. Primary and secondary data covering the 2008-09 and 2009-10 influenza seasons. We estimated weekly monovalent influenza vaccine uptake in Maine and 15 other states, using difference-in-difference-in-differences analysis to assess the program's impact on immunization among six age groups. We also developed a health and economic Markov microsimulation model and conducted Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis. We used national survey data to estimate the impact of the SIV program on vaccine coverage. We used primary data and published studies to develop the microsimulation model. The program was associated with higher immunization among children and lower immunization among adults aged 18-49 years and 65 and older. The program prevented 4,600 influenza infections and generated $4.9 million in net economic benefits. Cost savings from lower adult vaccination accounted for 54 percent of the economic gain. Economic benefits were positive in 98 percent of Monte Carlo simulations. SIV may be a cost-beneficial approach to increase immunization during pandemics, but programs should be designed to prevent lower immunization among nontargeted groups. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

Traffic signal synchronization.

PubMed

Huang, Ding-wei; Huang, Wei-neng

2003-05-01

The benefits of traffic signal synchronization are examined within the cellular automata approach. The microsimulations of traffic flow are obtained with different settings of signal period T and time delay delta. Both numerical results and analytical approximations are presented. For undersaturated traffic, the green-light wave solutions can be realized. For saturated traffic, the correlation among the traffic signals has no effect on the throughput. For oversaturated traffic, the benefits of synchronization are manifest only when stochastic noise is suppressed.

Multiple sclerosis in Canada 2011 to 2031: results of a microsimulation modelling study of epidemiological and economic impacts.

PubMed

Amankwah, Nana; Marrie, Ruth Ann; Bancej, Christina; Garner, Rochelle; Manuel, Douglas G; Wall, Ron; Finès, Philippe; Bernier, Julie; Tu, Karen; Reimer, Kim

2017-02-01

The objective of our study was to present model-based estimates and projections on current and future health and economic impacts of multiple sclerosis (MS) in Canada over a 20-year time horizon (2011-2031). Using Statistics Canada's Population Health Microsimulation Model (POHEM) framework, specifically the population-based longitudinal, microsimulation model named POHEM-Neurological, we identified people with MS from health administrative data sources and derived incidence and mortality rate parameters from a British Columbia population-based cohort for future MS incidence and mortality projections. We also included a utility-based measure (Health Utilities Index Mark 3) reflecting states of functional health to allow projections of health-related quality of life. Finally, we estimated caregiving parameters and health care costs from Canadian national surveys and health administrative data and included them as model parameters to assess the health and economic impact of the neurological conditions. The number of incident MS cases is expected to rise slightly from 4051 cases in 2011 to 4794 cases per 100 000 population in 2031, and the number of Canadians affected by MS will increase from 98 385 in 2011 to 133 635 in 2031. The total per capita health care cost (excluding out-of-pocket expenses) for adults aged 20 and older in 2011 was about $16 800 for individuals with MS, and approximately $2500 for individuals without a neurological condition. Thus, after accounting for additional expenditures due to MS (excluding out-of-pocket expenses), total annual health sector costs for MS are expected to reach $2.0 billion by 2031. As well, the average out-of-pocket expenditure for people with MS was around $1300 annually throughout the projection period. MS is associated with a significant economic burden on society, since it usually affects young adults during prime career- and family-building years. Canada has a particularly high prevalence of MS, so research such as the present study is essential to provide a better understanding of the current and future negative impacts of MS on the Canadian population, so that health care system policymakers can best plan how to meet the needs of patients who are affected by MS. These findings also suggest that identifying strategies to prevent MS and more effectively treat the disease are needed to mitigate these future impacts.

Corneal Collagen Cross-Linking in the Management of Keratoconus in Canada: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.

PubMed

Leung, Victoria C; Pechlivanoglou, Petros; Chew, Hall F; Hatch, Wendy

2017-08-01

To use patient-level microsimulation models to evaluate the comparative cost-effectiveness of early corneal cross-linking (CXL) and conventional management with penetrating keratoplasty (PKP) when indicated in managing keratoconus in Canada. Cost-utility analysis using individual-based, state-transition microsimulation models. Simulated cohorts of 100 000 individuals with keratoconus who entered each treatment arm at 25 years of age. Fellow eyes were modeled separately. Simulated individuals lived up to a maximum of 110 years. We developed 2 state-transition microsimulation models to reflect the natural history of keratoconus progression and the impact of conventional management with PKP versus CXL. We collected data from the published literature to inform model parameters. We used realistic parameters that maximized the potential costs and complications of CXL, while minimizing those associated with PKP. In each treatment arm, we allowed simulated individuals to move through health states in monthly cycles from diagnosis until death. For each treatment strategy, we calculated the total cost and number of quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained. Costs were measured in Canadian dollars. Costs and QALYs were discounted at 5%, converting future costs and QALYs into present values. We used an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER = difference in lifetime costs/difference in lifetime health outcomes) to compare the cost-effectiveness of CXL versus conventional management with PKP. Lifetime costs and QALYs for CXL were estimated to be Can$5530 (Can$4512, discounted) and 50.12 QALYs (16.42 QALYs, discounted). Lifetime costs and QALYs for conventional management with PKP were Can$2675 (Can$1508, discounted) and 48.93 QALYs (16.09 QALYs, discounted). The discounted ICER comparing CXL to conventional management was Can$9090/QALY gained. Sensitivity analyses revealed that in general, parameter variations did not influence the cost-effectiveness of CXL. CXL is cost-effective compared with conventional management with PKP in the treatment of keratoconus. Our ICER of Can$9090/QALY falls well below the range of Can$20 000 to Can$100 000/QALY and below US$50 000/QALY, thresholds generally used to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of health interventions in Canada and the United States. This study provides strong economic evidence for the cost-effectiveness of early CXL in keratoconus. Copyright © 2017 American Academy of Ophthalmology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Cost-effectiveness and budget impact analyses of a colorectal cancer screening programme in a high adenoma prevalence scenario using MISCAN-Colon microsimulation model.

PubMed

Arrospide, Arantzazu; Idigoras, Isabel; Mar, Javier; de Koning, Harry; van der Meulen, Miriam; Soto-Gordoa, Myriam; Martinez-Llorente, Jose Miguel; Portillo, Isabel; Arana-Arri, Eunate; Ibarrondo, Oliver; Lansdorp-Vogelaar, Iris

2018-04-25

The Basque Colorectal Cancer Screening Programme began in 2009 and the implementation has been complete since 2013. Faecal immunological testing was used for screening in individuals between 50 and 69 years old. Colorectal Cancer in Basque country is characterized by unusual epidemiological features given that Colorectal Cancer incidence is similar to other European countries while adenoma prevalence is higher. The object of our study was to economically evaluate the programme via cost-effectiveness and budget impact analyses with microsimulation models. We applied the Microsimulation Screening Analysis (MISCAN)-Colon model to predict trends in Colorectal Cancer incidence and mortality and to quantify the short- and long-term effects and costs of the Basque Colorectal Cancer Screening Programme. The model was calibrated to the Basque demographics in 2008 and age-specific Colorectal Cancer incidence data in the Basque Cancer Registry from 2005 to 2008 before the screening begun. The model was also calibrated to the high adenoma prevalence observed for the Basque population in a previously published study. The multi-cohort approach used in the model included all the cohorts in the programme during 30 years of implementation, with lifetime follow-up. Unit costs were obtained from the Basque Health Service and both cost-effectiveness analysis and budget impact analysis were carried out. The goodness-of-fit of the model adaptation to observed programme data was evidence of validation. In the cost-effectiveness analysis, the savings from treatment were larger than the added costs due to screening. Thus, the Basque programme was dominant compared to no screening, as life expectancy increased by 29.3 days per person. The savings in the budget analysis appeared 10 years after the complete implementation of the programme. The average annual budget was €73.4 million from year 2023 onwards. This economic evaluation showed a screening intervention with a major health gain that also produced net savings when a long follow-up was used to capture the late economic benefit. The number of colonoscopies required was high but remain within the capacity of the Basque Health Service. So far in Europe, no other population Colorectal Cancer screening programme has been evaluated by budget impact analysis.

Economic costs of chronic disease through lost productive life years (PLYs) among Australians aged 45-64 years from 2015 to 2030: results from a microsimulation model.

PubMed

Schofield, Deborah; Shrestha, Rupendra N; Cunich, Michelle M; Tanton, Robert; Veerman, Lennert; Kelly, Simon J; Passey, Megan E

2016-09-22

To project the number of older workers with lost productive life years (PLYs) due to chronic disease and resultant lost income; and lost taxes and increased welfare payments from 2015 to 2030. Using a microsimulation model, Health&WealthMOD2030, the costs of chronic disease in Australians aged 45-64 were projected to 2030. The model integrates household survey data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics Surveys of Disability, Ageing and Carers (SDACs) 2003 and 2009, output from long-standing microsimulation models (STINMOD (Static Incomes Model) and APPSIM (Australian Population and Policy Simulation Model)) used by various government departments, population and labour force growth data from Treasury, and disease trends data from the Australian Burden of Disease and Injury Study (2003). Respondents aged 45-64 years in the SDACs 2003 and 2009 formed the base population. Lost PLYs due to chronic disease; resultant lost income, lost taxes and increased welfare payments in 2015, 2020, 2025 and 2030. We projected 380 000 (6.4%) people aged 45-64 years with lost PLYs in 2015, increasing to 462 000 (6.5%) in 2030-a 22% increase in absolute numbers. Those with lost PLYs experience the largest reduction in income than any other group in each year compared to those employed full time without a chronic disease, and this income gap widens over time. The total economic loss due to lost PLYs consisted of lost income modelled at $A12.6 billion in 2015, increasing to $A20.5 billion in 2030-a 62.7% increase. Additional costs to the government consisted of increased welfare payments at $A6.2 billion in 2015, increasing to $A7.3 billion in 2030-a 17.7% increase; and a loss of $A3.1 billion in taxes in 2015, increasing to $A4.7 billion in 2030-a growth of 51.6%. There is a need for greater investment in effective preventive health interventions which improve workers' health and work capacity. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Economic costs of chronic disease through lost productive life years (PLYs) among Australians aged 45–64 years from 2015 to 2030: results from a microsimulation model

PubMed Central

Schofield, Deborah; Shrestha, Rupendra N; Cunich, Michelle M; Tanton, Robert; Veerman, Lennert; Kelly, Simon J

2016-01-01

Objectives To project the number of older workers with lost productive life years (PLYs) due to chronic disease and resultant lost income; and lost taxes and increased welfare payments from 2015 to 2030. Design, setting and participants Using a microsimulation model, Health&WealthMOD2030, the costs of chronic disease in Australians aged 45–64 were projected to 2030. The model integrates household survey data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics Surveys of Disability, Ageing and Carers (SDACs) 2003 and 2009, output from long-standing microsimulation models (STINMOD (Static Incomes Model) and APPSIM (Australian Population and Policy Simulation Model)) used by various government departments, population and labour force growth data from Treasury, and disease trends data from the Australian Burden of Disease and Injury Study (2003). Respondents aged 45–64 years in the SDACs 2003 and 2009 formed the base population. Main outcome measures Lost PLYs due to chronic disease; resultant lost income, lost taxes and increased welfare payments in 2015, 2020, 2025 and 2030. Results We projected 380 000 (6.4%) people aged 45–64 years with lost PLYs in 2015, increasing to 462 000 (6.5%) in 2030—a 22% increase in absolute numbers. Those with lost PLYs experience the largest reduction in income than any other group in each year compared to those employed full time without a chronic disease, and this income gap widens over time. The total economic loss due to lost PLYs consisted of lost income modelled at $A12.6 billion in 2015, increasing to $A20.5 billion in 2030—a 62.7% increase. Additional costs to the government consisted of increased welfare payments at $A6.2 billion in 2015, increasing to $A7.3 billion in 2030—a 17.7% increase; and a loss of $A3.1 billion in taxes in 2015, increasing to $A4.7 billion in 2030—a growth of 51.6%. Conclusions There is a need for greater investment in effective preventive health interventions which improve workers’ health and work capacity. PMID:27660315

Multiple sclerosis in Canada 2011 to 2031: results of a microsimulation modelling study of epidemiological and economic impacts

PubMed Central

Nana, Amankwah; Ruth, Ann Marrie; Christina, Bancej; Rochelle, Garner; Douglas, G. Manuel; Ron, Wall; Philippe, Finès; Julie, Bernier; Karen, Tu; Kim, Reimer

2017-01-01

Introduction: The objective of our study was to present model-based estimates and projections on current and future health and economic impacts of multiple sclerosis (MS) in Canada over a 20-year time horizon (2011–2031). Methods: Using Statistics Canada’s Population Health Microsimulation Model (POHEM) framework, specifically the population-based longitudinal, microsimulation model named POHEM-Neurological, we identified people with MS from health administrative data sources and derived incidence and mortality rate parameters from a British Columbia population-based cohort for future MS incidence and mortality projections. We also included a utility-based measure (Health Utilities Index Mark 3) reflecting states of functional health to allow projections of health-related quality of life. Finally, we estimated caregiving parameters and health care costs from Canadian national surveys and health administrative data and included them as model parameters to assess the health and economic impact of the neurological conditions. Results: The number of incident MS cases is expected to rise slightly from 4051 cases in 2011 to 4794 cases per 100 000 population in 2031, and the number of Canadians affected by MS will increase from 98 385 in 2011 to 133 635 in 2031. The total per capita health care cost (excluding out-of-pocket expenses) for adults aged 20 and older in 2011 was about $16 800 for individuals with MS, and approximately $2500 for individuals without a neurological condition. Thus, after accounting for additional expenditures due to MS (excluding out-of-pocket expenses), total annual health sector costs for MS are expected to reach $2.0 billion by 2031. As well, the average out-of-pocket expenditure for people with MS was around $1300 annually throughout the projection period. Conclusion: MS is associated with a significant economic burden on society, since it usually affects young adults during prime career- and family-building years. Canada has a particularly high prevalence of MS, so research such as the present study is essential to provide a better understanding of the current and future negative impacts of MS on the Canadian population, so that health care system policymakers can best plan how to meet the needs of patients who are affected by MS. These findings also suggest that identifying strategies to prevent MS and more effectively treat the disease are needed to mitigate these future impacts. PMID:28273039

JPRS Report, Science and Technology: Europe Twenty-Fourth ISATA International Symposium on Automotive Technology and Automation.

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-09-05

Traffic and Driving and Y Ishii, Oki Electric Industry, Japan " Mazda Car Communication System" Mazda Car Corporation , FRG IMPROVING TRAFFIC FLOW... Strategy to Reduce 151 Blocking-Back During Oversaturation using the Microsimulation Model Nemis" S Shepherd, Institute for Transport Studies, UK 910085...J Garber, C W Lynn and W S Ferguson, University of Virginia, USA 910087 "Ramp Metering Strategies for Motorways Incorporating Dynamic 177 Origin

Microsimulation of Financial Impact of Demand Surge on Hospitals: The H1N1 Influenza Pandemic of Fall 2009

PubMed Central

Braithwaite, Sabina; Friedman, Bernard; Mutter, Ryan; Handrigan, Michael

2013-01-01

Objective Microsimulation was used to assess the financial impact on hospitals of a surge in influenza admissions in advance of the H1N1 pandemic in the fall of 2009. The goal was to estimate net income and losses (nationally, and by hospital type) of a response of filling unused hospital bed capacity proportionately and postponing elective admissions (a “passive” supply response). Methods Epidemiologic assumptions were combined with assumptions from other literature (e.g., staff absenteeism, profitability by payer class), Census data on age groups by region, and baseline hospital utilization data. Hospital discharge records were available from the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project Nationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS). Hospital bed capacity and staffing were measured with the American Hospital Association's (AHA) Annual Survey. Results Nationwide, in a scenario of relatively severe epidemiologic assumptions, we estimated aggregate net income of $119 million for about 1 million additional influenza-related admissions, and a net loss of $37 million for 52,000 postponed elective admissions. Implications Aggregate and distributional results did not suggest that a policy of promising additional financial compensation to hospitals in anticipation of the surge in flu cases was necessary. The analysis identified needs for better information of several types to improve simulations of hospital behavior and impacts during demand surges. PMID:23398540

Effects of New Funding Models for Patient-Centered Medical Homes on Primary Care Practice Finances and Services: Results of a Microsimulation Model.

PubMed

Basu, Sanjay; Phillips, Russell S; Song, Zirui; Landon, Bruce E; Bitton, Asaf

2016-09-01

We assess the financial implications for primary care practices of participating in patient-centered medical home (PCMH) funding initiatives. We estimated practices' changes in net revenue under 3 PCMH funding initiatives: increased fee-for-service (FFS) payments, traditional FFS with additional per-member-per-month (PMPM) payments, or traditional FFS with PMPM and pay-for-performance (P4P) payments. Net revenue estimates were based on a validated microsimulation model utilizing national practice surveys. Simulated practices reflecting the national range of practice size, location, and patient population were examined under several potential changes in clinical services: investments in patient tracking, communications, and quality improvement; increased support staff; altered visit templates to accommodate longer visits, telephone visits or electronic visits; and extended service delivery hours. Under the status quo of traditional FFS payments, clinics operate near their maximum estimated possible net revenue levels, suggesting they respond strongly to existing financial incentives. Practices gained substantial additional net annual revenue per full-time physician under PMPM or PMPM plus P4P payments ($113,300 per year, 95% CI, $28,500 to $198,200) but not under increased FFS payments (-$53,500, 95% CI, -$69,700 to -$37,200), after accounting for costs of meeting PCMH funding requirements. Expanding services beyond minimum required levels decreased net revenue, because traditional FFS revenues decreased. PCMH funding through PMPM payments could substantially improve practice finances but will not offer sufficient financial incentives to expand services beyond minimum requirements for PCMH funding. © 2016 Annals of Family Medicine, Inc.

Cost-effectiveness of the Norwegian breast cancer screening program.

PubMed

van Luijt, P A; Heijnsdijk, E A M; de Koning, H J

2017-02-15

The Norwegian Breast Cancer Screening Programme (NBCSP) has a nation-wide coverage since 2005. All women aged 50-69 years are invited biennially for mammography screening. We evaluated breast cancer mortality reduction and performed a cost-effectiveness analysis, using our microsimulation model, calibrated to most recent data. The microsimulation model allows for the comparison of mortality and costs between a (hypothetical) situation without screening and a situation with screening. Breast cancer incidence in Norway had a steep increase in the early 1990s. We calibrated the model to simulate this increase and included recent costs for screening, diagnosis and treatment of breast cancer and travel and productivity loss. We estimate a 16% breast cancer mortality reduction for a cohort of women, invited to screening, followed over their complete lifetime. Cost-effectiveness is estimated at NOK 112,162 per QALY gained, when taking only direct medical costs into account (the cost of the buses, examinations, and invitations). We used a 3.5% annual discount rate. Cost-effectiveness estimates are substantially below the threshold of NOK 1,926,366 as recommended by the WHO guidelines. For the Norwegian population, which has been gradually exposed to screening, breast cancer mortality reduction for women exposed to screening is increasing and is estimated to rise to ∼30% in 2020 for women aged 55-80 years. The NBCSP is a highly cost-effective measure to reduce breast cancer specific mortality. We estimate a breast cancer specific mortality reduction of 16-30%, at the cost of 112,162 NOK per QALY gained. © 2016 UICC.

Empirically evaluating decision-analytic models.

PubMed

Goldhaber-Fiebert, Jeremy D; Stout, Natasha K; Goldie, Sue J

2010-08-01

Model-based cost-effectiveness analyses support decision-making. To augment model credibility, evaluation via comparison to independent, empirical studies is recommended. We developed a structured reporting format for model evaluation and conducted a structured literature review to characterize current model evaluation recommendations and practices. As an illustration, we applied the reporting format to evaluate a microsimulation of human papillomavirus and cervical cancer. The model's outputs and uncertainty ranges were compared with multiple outcomes from a study of long-term progression from high-grade precancer (cervical intraepithelial neoplasia [CIN]) to cancer. Outcomes included 5 to 30-year cumulative cancer risk among women with and without appropriate CIN treatment. Consistency was measured by model ranges overlapping study confidence intervals. The structured reporting format included: matching baseline characteristics and follow-up, reporting model and study uncertainty, and stating metrics of consistency for model and study results. Structured searches yielded 2963 articles with 67 meeting inclusion criteria and found variation in how current model evaluations are reported. Evaluation of the cervical cancer microsimulation, reported using the proposed format, showed a modeled cumulative risk of invasive cancer for inadequately treated women of 39.6% (30.9-49.7) at 30 years, compared with the study: 37.5% (28.4-48.3). For appropriately treated women, modeled risks were 1.0% (0.7-1.3) at 30 years, study: 1.5% (0.4-3.3). To support external and projective validity, cost-effectiveness models should be iteratively evaluated as new studies become available, with reporting standardized to facilitate assessment. Such evaluations are particularly relevant for models used to conduct comparative effectiveness analyses.

Development and validation of a new population-based simulation model of osteoarthritis in New Zealand.

PubMed

Wilson, R; Abbott, J H

2018-04-01

To describe the construction and preliminary validation of a new population-based microsimulation model developed to analyse the health and economic burden and cost-effectiveness of treatments for knee osteoarthritis (OA) in New Zealand (NZ). We developed the New Zealand Management of Osteoarthritis (NZ-MOA) model, a discrete-time state-transition microsimulation model of the natural history of radiographic knee OA. In this article, we report on the model structure, derivation of input data, validation of baseline model parameters against external data sources, and validation of model outputs by comparison of the predicted population health loss with previous estimates. The NZ-MOA model simulates both the structural progression of radiographic knee OA and the stochastic development of multiple disease symptoms. Input parameters were sourced from NZ population-based data where possible, and from international sources where NZ-specific data were not available. The predicted distributions of structural OA severity and health utility detriments associated with OA were externally validated against other sources of evidence, and uncertainty resulting from key input parameters was quantified. The resulting lifetime and current population health-loss burden was consistent with estimates of previous studies. The new NZ-MOA model provides reliable estimates of the health loss associated with knee OA in the NZ population. The model structure is suitable for analysis of the effects of a range of potential treatments, and will be used in future work to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of recommended interventions within the NZ healthcare system. Copyright © 2018 Osteoarthritis Research Society International. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Labour force participation and the influence of having arthritis on financial status.

PubMed

Schofield, Deborah J; Callander, Emily J; Shrestha, Rupendra N; Percival, Richard; Kelly, Simon J; Passey, Megan E

2015-07-01

The objective of this study was to quantify the impact that having arthritis has on income poverty status and accumulated wealth in Australia. Cross-sectional analysis of Health&WealthMOD, a microsimulation model built on data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics' Survey of Disability, Ageing and Carers and STINMOD, an income and savings microsimulation model. Across all categories of labour force participation status (employed full time, part time or not in the labour force at all), those with arthritis were significantly more likely to be in poverty. Those employed full time with no health condition had 0.82 times the odds of being in income poverty (95 % CI 0.80-0.84) compared with those employed full time with arthritis. Those not in the labour force with no chronic health conditions had 0.36 times the odds of being in income poverty compared with those not in the labour force due to arthritis (95 % CI 0.36-0.37). For people not in the labour force with no long-term health condition, the total value of their wealth was 211 % higher (95 % CI 38-618 %) than the amount of wealth accumulated by those not in the labour force due to arthritis. Similarly, those employed part time with no chronic health condition had 50 % more wealth than those employed part time with arthritis (95 % CI 3-116 %). Arthritis has a profound impact upon the economic circumstances of individuals, which adds a further dimension to the detrimental living standards of older individuals suffering from the condition.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of a quantitative immunochemical test for colorectal cancer screening.

PubMed

Wilschut, Janneke A; Hol, Lieke; Dekker, Evelien; Jansen, Jan B; Van Leerdam, Monique E; Lansdorp-Vogelaar, Iris; Kuipers, Ernst J; Habbema, J Dik F; Van Ballegooijen, Marjolein

2011-11-01

Two European randomized trials (N = 30,000) compared guaiac fecal occult blood testing with quantitative fecal immunochemical testing (FIT) and showed better attendance rates and test characteristics for FIT. We aimed to identify the most cost-effective FIT cutoff level for referral to colonoscopy based on data from these trials and allowing for differences in screening ages. We used the validated MIcrosimulation SCreening ANalysis (MISCAN)-Colon microsimulation model to estimate costs and effects of different screening strategies for FIT cutoff levels of 50, 75, 100, 150, and 200 ng/mL hemoglobin. For each cutoff level, screening strategies were assessed with various age ranges and screening intervals. We assumed sufficient colonoscopy capacity for all strategies. At all cost levels, FIT screening was most effective with the 50 ng/mL cutoff level. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of biennial screening between ages 55 and 75 years using FIT at 50 ng/mL, for example, was 3900 euro per life year gained. Annual screening had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of 14,900 euro per life year gained, in combination with a wider age range (between ages 45 and 80 years). In the sensitivity analysis, 50 ng/mL remained the preferred cutoff level. FIT screening is more cost-effective at a cutoff level of 50 ng/mL than at higher cutoff levels. This supports the recommendation to use FIT at a cutoff level of 50 ng/mL, which is considerably lower than the values used in current practice. Copyright © 2011 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A novel hypothesis on the sensitivity of the fecal occult blood test: Results of a joint analysis of 3 randomized controlled trials.

PubMed

Lansdorp-Vogelaar, Iris; van Ballegooijen, Marjolein; Boer, Rob; Zauber, Ann; Habbema, J Dik F

2009-06-01

Estimates of the fecal occult blood test (FOBT) (Hemoccult II) sensitivity differed widely between screening trials and led to divergent conclusions on the effects of FOBT screening. We used microsimulation modeling to estimate a preclinical colorectal cancer (CRC) duration and sensitivity for unrehydrated FOBT from the data of 3 randomized controlled trials of Minnesota, Nottingham, and Funen. In addition to 2 usual hypotheses on the sensitivity of FOBT, we tested a novel hypothesis where sensitivity is linked to the stage of clinical diagnosis in the situation without screening. We used the MISCAN-Colon microsimulation model to estimate sensitivity and duration, accounting for differences between the trials in demography, background incidence, and trial design. We tested 3 hypotheses for FOBT sensitivity: sensitivity is the same for all preclinical CRC stages, sensitivity increases with each stage, and sensitivity is higher for the stage in which the cancer would have been diagnosed in the absence of screening than for earlier stages. Goodness-of-fit was evaluated by comparing expected and observed rates of screen-detected and interval CRC. The hypothesis with a higher sensitivity in the stage of clinical diagnosis gave the best fit. Under this hypothesis, sensitivity of FOBT was 51% in the stage of clinical diagnosis and 19% in earlier stages. The average duration of preclinical CRC was estimated at 6.7 years. Our analysis corroborated a long duration of preclinical CRC, with FOBT most sensitive in the stage of clinical diagnosis. (c) 2009 American Cancer Society.

Cost-Savings to Medicare From Pre-Medicare Colorectal Cancer Screening.

PubMed

Goede, Simon L; Kuntz, Karen M; van Ballegooijen, Marjolein; Knudsen, Amy B; Lansdorp-Vogelaar, Iris; Tangka, Florence K; Howard, David H; Chin, Joseph; Zauber, Ann G; Seeff, Laura C

2015-07-01

Many individuals have not received recommended colorectal cancer (CRC) screening before they become Medicare eligible at the age of 65. We aimed to estimate the long-term implications of increased CRC screening in the pre-Medicare population (50-64 y) on costs in the pre-Medicare and Medicare populations (65+ y). We used 2 independently developed microsimulation models [Microsimulation Screening Analysis Colon (MISCAN) and Simulation Model of CRC (SimCRC)] to project CRC screening and treatment costs under 2 scenarios, starting in 2010: "current trends" (60% of the population up-to-date with screening recommendations) and "enhanced participation" (70% up-to-date). The population was scaled to the projected US population for each year between 2010 and 2060. Costs per year were derived by age group (50-64 and 65+ y). By 2060, the discounted cumulative total costs in the pre-Medicare population were $35.7 and $28.1 billion higher with enhanced screening participation, than in the current trends scenario ($252.1 billion with MISCAN and $239.5 billion with SimCRC, respectively). Because of CRC treatment savings with enhanced participation, cumulative costs in the Medicare population were $18.3 and $32.7 billion lower (current trends: $423.5 billion with MISCAN and $372.8 billion with SimCRC). Over the 50-year time horizon an estimated 60% (MISCAN) and 89% (SimCRC) of the increased screening costs could be offset by savings in Medicare CRC treatment costs. Increased CRC screening participation in the pre-Medicare population could reduce CRC incidence and mortality, whereas the additional screening costs can be largely offset by long-term Medicare treatment savings.

Effects of New Funding Models for Patient-Centered Medical Homes on Primary Care Practice Finances and Services: Results of a Microsimulation Model

PubMed Central

Basu, Sanjay; Phillips, Russell S.; Song, Zirui; Landon, Bruce E.; Bitton, Asaf

2016-01-01

PURPOSE We assess the financial implications for primary care practices of participating in patient-centered medical home (PCMH) funding initiatives. METHODS We estimated practices’ changes in net revenue under 3 PCMH funding initiatives: increased fee-for-service (FFS) payments, traditional FFS with additional per-member-per-month (PMPM) payments, or traditional FFS with PMPM and pay-for-performance (P4P) payments. Net revenue estimates were based on a validated microsimulation model utilizing national practice surveys. Simulated practices reflecting the national range of practice size, location, and patient population were examined under several potential changes in clinical services: investments in patient tracking, communications, and quality improvement; increased support staff; altered visit templates to accommodate longer visits, telephone visits or electronic visits; and extended service delivery hours. RESULTS Under the status quo of traditional FFS payments, clinics operate near their maximum estimated possible net revenue levels, suggesting they respond strongly to existing financial incentives. Practices gained substantial additional net annual revenue per full-time physician under PMPM or PMPM plus P4P payments ($113,300 per year, 95% CI, $28,500 to $198,200) but not under increased FFS payments (−$53,500, 95% CI, −$69,700 to −$37,200), after accounting for costs of meeting PCMH funding requirements. Expanding services beyond minimum required levels decreased net revenue, because traditional FFS revenues decreased. CONCLUSIONS PCMH funding through PMPM payments could substantially improve practice finances but will not offer sufficient financial incentives to expand services beyond minimum requirements for PCMH funding. PMID:27621156

The role of pre-invasive disease in overdiagnosis: A microsimulation study comparing mass screening for breast cancer and cervical cancer.

PubMed

van Luijt, Paula A; Rozemeijer, Kirsten; Naber, Steffie K; Heijnsdijk, Eveline Am; van Rosmalen, Joost; van Ballegooijen, Marjolein; de Koning, Harry J

2016-12-01

Although early detection of cancer through screening can prevent cancer deaths, a drawback of screening is overdiagnosis. Overdiagnosis has been much debated in breast cancer screening, but less so in cervical cancer screening. We examined the impact of overdiagnosis by comparing two screening programmes in the Netherlands. We estimated overdiagnosis rates by microsimulation for breast cancer screening and cervical cancer screening, using a cohort of women born in 1982 with lifelong follow-up. Overdiagnosis estimates were made analogous to two definitions formed by the UK 2012 breast screening review. Pre-invasive disease was included in both definitions. Screening prevented 921 cervical cancers (-55%) and 378 cervical cancer deaths (-59%), and 169 (-1.3%) breast cancer cases and 970 breast cancer deaths (-21%). The cervical cancer overdiagnosis rate was 74.8% (including pre-invasive disease). Breast cancer overdiagnosis was estimated at 2.5% (including pre-invasive disease). For women of all ages in breast cancer screening, an excess of 207 diagnoses/100,000 women was found, compared with an excess of 3999 diagnoses/100,000 women in cervical cancer screening. For breast cancer, the frequency of overdiagnosis in screening is relatively low, but consequences are evident. For cervical cancer, the frequency of overdiagnosis in screening is high, because of detection of pre-invasive disease, but the consequences per case are relatively small due to less invasive treatment. This illustrates that it is necessary to present overdiagnosis in relation to disease stage and consequences. © The Author(s) 2016.

Supply and demand analysis of the current and future US neurology workforce

PubMed Central

Storm, Michael V.; Chakrabarti, Ritashree; Drogan, Oksana; Keran, Christopher M.; Donofrio, Peter D.; Henderson, Victor W.; Kaminski, Henry J.; Stevens, James C.; Vidic, Thomas R.

2013-01-01

Objective: This study estimates current and projects future neurologist supply and demand under alternative scenarios nationally and by state from 2012 through 2025. Methods: A microsimulation supply model simulates likely career choices of individual neurologists, taking into account the number of new neurologists trained each year and changing demographics of the neurology workforce. A microsimulation demand model simulates utilization of neurology services for each individual in a representative sample of the population in each state and for the United States as a whole. Demand projections reflect increased prevalence of neurologic conditions associated with population growth and aging, and expanded coverage under health care reform. Results: The estimated active supply of 16,366 neurologists in 2012 is projected to increase to 18,060 by 2025. Long wait times for patients to see a neurologist, difficulty hiring new neurologists, and large numbers of neurologists who do not accept new Medicaid patients are consistent with a current national shortfall of neurologists. Demand for neurologists is projected to increase from ∼18,180 in 2012 (11% shortfall) to 21,440 by 2025 (19% shortfall). This includes an increased demand of 520 full-time equivalent neurologists starting in 2014 from expanded medical insurance coverage associated with the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. Conclusions: In the absence of efforts to increase the number of neurology professionals and retain the existing workforce, current national and geographic shortfalls of neurologists are likely to worsen, exacerbating long wait times and reducing access to care for Medicaid beneficiaries. Current geographic differences in adequacy of supply likely will persist into the future. PMID:23596071

Supply and demand analysis of the current and future US neurology workforce.

PubMed

Dall, Timothy M; Storm, Michael V; Chakrabarti, Ritashree; Drogan, Oksana; Keran, Christopher M; Donofrio, Peter D; Henderson, Victor W; Kaminski, Henry J; Stevens, James C; Vidic, Thomas R

2013-07-30

This study estimates current and projects future neurologist supply and demand under alternative scenarios nationally and by state from 2012 through 2025. A microsimulation supply model simulates likely career choices of individual neurologists, taking into account the number of new neurologists trained each year and changing demographics of the neurology workforce. A microsimulation demand model simulates utilization of neurology services for each individual in a representative sample of the population in each state and for the United States as a whole. Demand projections reflect increased prevalence of neurologic conditions associated with population growth and aging, and expanded coverage under health care reform. The estimated active supply of 16,366 neurologists in 2012 is projected to increase to 18,060 by 2025. Long wait times for patients to see a neurologist, difficulty hiring new neurologists, and large numbers of neurologists who do not accept new Medicaid patients are consistent with a current national shortfall of neurologists. Demand for neurologists is projected to increase from ∼18,180 in 2012 (11% shortfall) to 21,440 by 2025 (19% shortfall). This includes an increased demand of 520 full-time equivalent neurologists starting in 2014 from expanded medical insurance coverage associated with the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. In the absence of efforts to increase the number of neurology professionals and retain the existing workforce, current national and geographic shortfalls of neurologists are likely to worsen, exacerbating long wait times and reducing access to care for Medicaid beneficiaries. Current geographic differences in adequacy of supply likely will persist into the future.

Reducing Childhood Obesity through U.S. Federal Policy

PubMed Central

Kristensen, Alyson H.; Flottemesch, Thomas J.; Maciosek, Michael V.; Jenson, Jennifer; Barclay, Gillian; Ashe, Marice; Sanchez, Eduardo J.; Story, Mary; Teutsch, Steven M.; Brownson, Ross C.

2016-01-01

Background Childhood obesity prevalence remains high in the U.S., especially among racial/ethnic minorities and low-income populations. Federal policy is important in improving public health given its broad reach. Information is needed about federal policies that could reduce childhood obesity rates and by how much. Purpose To estimate the impact of three federal policies on childhood obesity prevalence in 2032, after 20 years of implementation. Methods Criteria were used to select the three following policies to reduce childhood obesity from 26 recommended policies: afterschool physical activity programs, a $0.01/ounce sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) excise tax, and a ban on child-directed fast food TV advertising. For each policy, the literature was reviewed from January 2000 through July 2012 to find evidence of effectiveness and create average effect sizes. In 2012, a Markov microsimulation model estimated each policy’s impact on diet or physical activity, and then BMI, in a simulated school-aged population in 2032. Results The microsimulation predicted that afterschool physical activity programs would reduce obesity the most among children aged 6–12 years (1.8 percentage points) and the advertising ban would reduce obesity the least (0.9 percentage points). The SSB excise tax would reduce obesity the most among adolescents aged 13–18 years (2.4 percentage points). All three policies would reduce obesity more among blacks and Hispanics than whites, with the SSB excise tax reducing obesity disparities the most. Conclusions All three policies would reduce childhood obesity prevalence by 2032. However, a national $0.01/ounce SSB excise tax is the best option. PMID:25175764

Forecasting the use of elderly care: a static micro-simulation model.

PubMed

Eggink, Evelien; Woittiez, Isolde; Ras, Michiel

2016-07-01

This paper describes a model suitable for forecasting the use of publicly funded long-term elderly care, taking into account both ageing and changes in the health status of the population. In addition, the impact of socioeconomic factors on care use is included in the forecasts. The model is also suitable for the simulation of possible implications of some specific policy measures. The model is a static micro-simulation model, consisting of an explanatory model and a population model. The explanatory model statistically relates care use to individual characteristics. The population model mimics the composition of the population at future points in time. The forecasts of care use are driven by changes in the composition of the population in terms of relevant characteristics instead of dynamics at the individual level. The results show that a further 37 % increase in the use of elderly care (from 7 to 9 % of the Dutch 30-plus population) between 2008 and 2030 can be expected due to a further ageing of the population. However, the use of care is expected to increase less than if it were based on the increasing number of elderly only (+70 %), due to decreasing disability levels and increasing levels of education. As an application of the model, we simulated the effects of restricting access to residential care to elderly people with severe physical disabilities. The result was a lower growth of residential care use (32 % instead of 57 %), but a somewhat faster growth in the use of home care (35 % instead of 32 %).

Behavioral Health Integration into Primary Care: a Microsimulation of Financial Implications for Practices.

PubMed

Basu, Sanjay; Landon, Bruce E; Williams, John W; Bitton, Asaf; Song, Zirui; Phillips, Russell S

2017-12-01

New payments from Medicare encourage behavioral health services to be integrated into primary care practice activities. To evaluate the financial impact for primary care practices of integrating behavioral health services. Microsimulation model. We simulated patients and providers at federally qualified health centers (FQHCs), non-FQHCs in urban and rural high-poverty areas, and practices outside of high-poverty areas surveyed by the National Association of Community Health Centers, National Ambulatory Medical Care Survey, National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, and National Health Interview Survey. A collaborative care model (CoCM), involving telephone-based follow-up from a behaviorist care manager, or a primary care behaviorist model (PCBM), involving an in-clinic behaviorist. Net revenue change per full-time physician. When behavioral health integration services were offered only to Medicare patients, net revenue was higher under CoCM (averaging $25,026 per MD in year 1 and $28,548/year in subsequent years) than PCBM (-$7052 in year 1 and -$3706/year in subsequent years). When behavioral health integration services were offered to all patients and were reimbursed by Medicare and private payers, only practices adopting the CoCM approach consistently gained net revenues. The outcomes of the model were sensitive to rates of patient referral acceptance, presentation, and therapy completion, but the CoCM approach remained consistently financially viable whereas PCBM would not be in the long-run across practice types. New Medicare payments may offer financial viability for primary care practices to integrate behavioral health services, but this viability depends on the approach toward care integration.

Evaluating child welfare policies with decision-analytic simulation models.

PubMed

Goldhaber-Fiebert, Jeremy D; Bailey, Stephanie L; Hurlburt, Michael S; Zhang, Jinjin; Snowden, Lonnie R; Wulczyn, Fred; Landsverk, John; Horwitz, Sarah M

2012-11-01

The objective was to demonstrate decision-analytic modeling in support of Child Welfare policymakers considering implementing evidence-based interventions. Outcomes included permanency (e.g., adoptions) and stability (e.g., foster placement changes). Analyses of a randomized trial of KEEP-a foster parenting intervention-and NSCAW-1 estimated placement change rates and KEEP's effects. A microsimulation model generalized these findings to other Child Welfare systems. The model projected that KEEP could increase permanency and stability, identifying strategies targeting higher-risk children and geographical regions that achieve benefits efficiently. Decision-analytic models enable planners to gauge the value of potential implementations.

A web-based micro-simulation program for self-learning BLS skills and the use of an AED. Can laypeople train themselves without a manikin?

PubMed

de Vries, Wiebe; Handley, Anthony J

2007-12-01

Various methods, including self-instruction, have been used to try to improve the acquisition of basic life support skills. This is a preliminary report of the effectiveness of a web-based self-training program for BLS and the use of an AED. Sixteen volunteers completed on-line training in their own time over a period of 8 weeks. The program included theory, scenario training and self-testing, but without practice on a manikin, or any instructor input. The volunteers were assessed, without prior warning, in a scenario setting. A recording manikin, expert assessors and video recording were used with a modified version of the Cardiff Test. All 16 volunteers performed the assessed skills in the use of an AED correctly. Most of the skills of BLS assessed were performed well. Chest compression depth and rate were performed less well (59% and 67% of participants, respectively, performed correctly). Opening the airway and lung inflation were performed poorly (38% and 13% of participants performed correctly), as was checking for safety (19% participants performed correctly). There was no significant correlation between the time a participant spent on-line and the quality of performance. Only 5 of the volunteers had ever attended a BLS course or used a resuscitation manikin before the assessment; their performance scores were not significantly better than those of the other 11 volunteers. These results suggest that it may be possible to train people in BLS and AED skills using a micro-simulation web-based interactive program but without any practice on a manikin. This seems to be particularly the case for the use of an AED, where performance achieved a uniformly high standard.

Cost Effectiveness of Age-Specific Screening Intervals for People With Family Histories of Colorectal Cancer.

PubMed

Naber, Steffie K; Kuntz, Karen M; Henrikson, Nora B; Williams, Marc S; Calonge, Ned; Goddard, Katrina A B; Zallen, Doris T; Ganiats, Theodore G; Webber, Elizabeth M; Janssens, A Cecile J W; van Ballegooijen, Marjolein; Zauber, Ann G; Lansdorp-Vogelaar, Iris

2018-01-01

Relative risk of colorectal cancer (CRC) decreases with age among individuals with a family history of CRC. However, no screening recommendations specify less frequent screening with increasing age. We aimed to determine whether such a refinement would be cost effective. We determined the relative risk for CRC for individuals based on age and number of affected first-degree relatives (FDRs) using data from publications. For each number of affected FDRs, we used the Microsimulation Screening Analysis model to estimate costs and effects of colonoscopy screening strategies with different age ranges and intervals. Screening was then optimized sequentially, starting with the youngest age group, and allowing the interval of screening to change at certain ages. Strategies with an incremental cost effectiveness ratio below $100,000 per quality-adjusted life year were considered cost effective. For people with 1 affected FDR (92% of those with a family history), screening every 3 years beginning at an age of 40 years is most cost effective. If no adenomas are found, the screening interval can gradually be extended to 5 and 7 years, at ages 45 and 55 years, respectively. From a cost-effectiveness perspective, individuals with more affected FDRs should start screening earlier and at shorter intervals. However, frequency can be reduced if no abnormalities are found. Using a microsimulation model, we found that for individuals with a family history of CRC, it is cost effective to gradually increase the screening interval if several subsequent screening colonoscopies have negative results and no new cases of CRC are found in family members. Copyright © 2018 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis: Risk Stratification of Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease (NAFLD) by the Primary Care Physician Using the NAFLD Fibrosis Score.

PubMed

Tapper, Elliot B; Hunink, M G Myriam; Afdhal, Nezam H; Lai, Michelle; Sengupta, Neil

2016-01-01

The complications of Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease (NAFLD) are dependent on the presence of advanced fibrosis. Given the high prevalence of NAFLD in the US, the optimal evaluation of NAFLD likely involves triage by a primary care physician (PCP) with advanced disease managed by gastroenterologists. We compared the cost-effectiveness of fibrosis risk-assessment strategies in a cohort of 10,000 simulated American patients with NAFLD performed in either PCP or referral clinics using a decision analytical microsimulation state-transition model. The strategies included use of vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE), the NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS), combination testing with NFS and VCTE, and liver biopsy (usual care by a specialist only). NFS and VCTE performance was obtained from a prospective cohort of 164 patients with NAFLD. Outcomes included cost per quality adjusted life year (QALY) and correct classification of fibrosis. Risk-stratification by the PCP using the NFS alone costs $5,985 per QALY while usual care costs $7,229/QALY. In the microsimulation, at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $100,000, the NFS alone in PCP clinic was the most cost-effective strategy in 94.2% of samples, followed by combination NFS/VCTE in the PCP clinic (5.6%) and usual care in 0.2%. The NFS based strategies yield the best biopsy-correct classification ratios (3.5) while the NFS/VCTE and usual care strategies yield more correct-classifications of advanced fibrosis at the cost of 3 and 37 additional biopsies per classification. Risk-stratification of patients with NAFLD primary care clinic is a cost-effective strategy that should be formally explored in clinical practice.

Cost-Effective Evaluation of Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease With NAFLD Fibrosis Score and Vibration Controlled Transient Elastography.

PubMed

Tapper, Elliot B; Sengupta, Neil; Hunink, M G Myriam; Afdhal, Nezam H; Lai, Michelle

2015-09-01

The risk of advanced fibrosis in nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is traditionally assessed with a liver biopsy, which is both costly and associated with adverse events. We sought to compare the cost-effectiveness of four different strategies to assess fibrosis risk in patients with NAFLD: vibration controlled transient elastography (VCTE), the NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS), combination testing with NFS and VCTE, and liver biopsy (usual care). We developed a probabilistic decision analytical microsimulation state-transition model wherein we simulated a cohort of 10,000 50-year-old Americans with NAFLD undergoing evaluation by a gastroenterologist. VCTE performance was obtained from a prospective cohort of 144 patients with NAFLD. Both the NFS alone and the NFS/VCTE strategies were cost effective at $5,795 and $5,768 per quality-adjusted life years (QALY), respectively. In the microsimulation, the NFS alone and NFS/VCTE strategies were the most cost-effective (dominant) in 66.8 and 33.2% of samples given a willingness-to-pay threshold of $100,000 per QALY. In a sensitivity analysis, the minimum cost per liver biopsy at which the NFS is cost saving is $339 and the maximum cost per VCTE exam at which the NFS/VCTE strategy remains cost saving is $1,593. The expected value of further research on this topic is $526 million. Non-invasive risk stratification with both the NFS alone and the NFS/VCTE are cost-effective strategies for the evaluation and management of patients with NAFLD presenting to a gastroenterologist. Further research is needed to better define the natural history of NAFLD and the effect of novel treatments on decision making.

Validation of Models Used to Inform Colorectal Cancer Screening Guidelines: Accuracy and Implications.

PubMed

Rutter, Carolyn M; Knudsen, Amy B; Marsh, Tracey L; Doria-Rose, V Paul; Johnson, Eric; Pabiniak, Chester; Kuntz, Karen M; van Ballegooijen, Marjolein; Zauber, Ann G; Lansdorp-Vogelaar, Iris

2016-07-01

Microsimulation models synthesize evidence about disease processes and interventions, providing a method for predicting long-term benefits and harms of prevention, screening, and treatment strategies. Because models often require assumptions about unobservable processes, assessing a model's predictive accuracy is important. We validated 3 colorectal cancer (CRC) microsimulation models against outcomes from the United Kingdom Flexible Sigmoidoscopy Screening (UKFSS) Trial, a randomized controlled trial that examined the effectiveness of one-time flexible sigmoidoscopy screening to reduce CRC mortality. The models incorporate different assumptions about the time from adenoma initiation to development of preclinical and symptomatic CRC. Analyses compare model predictions to study estimates across a range of outcomes to provide insight into the accuracy of model assumptions. All 3 models accurately predicted the relative reduction in CRC mortality 10 years after screening (predicted hazard ratios, with 95% percentile intervals: 0.56 [0.44, 0.71], 0.63 [0.51, 0.75], 0.68 [0.53, 0.83]; estimated with 95% confidence interval: 0.56 [0.45, 0.69]). Two models with longer average preclinical duration accurately predicted the relative reduction in 10-year CRC incidence. Two models with longer mean sojourn time accurately predicted the number of screen-detected cancers. All 3 models predicted too many proximal adenomas among patients referred to colonoscopy. Model accuracy can only be established through external validation. Analyses such as these are therefore essential for any decision model. Results supported the assumptions that the average time from adenoma initiation to development of preclinical cancer is long (up to 25 years), and mean sojourn time is close to 4 years, suggesting the window for early detection and intervention by screening is relatively long. Variation in dwell time remains uncertain and could have important clinical and policy implications. © The Author(s) 2016.

The personal and national costs of mental health conditions: impacts on income, taxes, government support payments due to lost labour force participation

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Mental health conditions have the ability to interrupt an individual's ability to participate in the labour force, and this can have considerable follow on impacts to both the individual and the state. Method Cross-sectional analysis of the base population of Health&WealthMOD, a microsimulation model built on data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics' Survey of Disability, Ageing and Carers and STINMOD, an income and savings microsimulation model was used to quantify the personal cost of lost income and the cost to the state from lost income taxation, increased benefits payments and lost GDP as a result of early retirement due to mental health conditions in Australians aged 45-64 in 2009. Results Individuals aged 45 to 64 years who have retired early due to depression personally have 73% lower income then their full time employed counterparts and those retired early due to other mental health conditions have 78% lower incomes. The national aggregate cost to government due to early retirement from these conditions equated to $278 million (£152.9 million) in lost income taxation revenue, $407 million (£223.9 million) in additional transfer payments and around $1.7 billion in GDP in 2009 alone. Conclusions The costs of mental health conditions to the individuals and the state are considerable. While individuals has to bear the economic costs of lost income in addition to the burden of the conditions itself, the impact on the state is loss of productivity from reduced workforce participation, lost income taxation revenue, and increased government support payments - in addition to direct health care costs. PMID:21526993

The personal and national costs of lost labour force participation due to arthritis: an economic study

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background The costs of arthritis to the individuals and the state are considerable. Methods Cross-sectional analysis of the base population of Health&WealthMOD, a microsimulation model of 45 to 64 year old Australians built on data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ Survey of Disability, Ageing and Carers and STINMOD, an income and savings microsimulation model. Results Individuals aged 45 to 64 years who had retired early due to arthritis had a median value of AU$260 in total weekly income whereas those who were employed full time were likely to average more than five times this. The large national aggregate impact of early retirement due to arthritis includes AU$9.4 billion in lost GDP, attributable to arthritis through its impact on labour force participation. When looking at the ongoing impact of being out of the labour force those who retired from the labour force early due to arthritis were estimated to have a median value of total savings by the time they are 65 of as little as $300 (for males aged 45–54). This is far lower than the median value of savings for those males aged 45–54 who remained in the labour force full time, who would have an estimated $339 100 of savings at age 65. Conclusions The costs of arthritis to the individuals and the state are considerable. The impacts on the state include loss of productivity from reduced workforce participation, lost income taxation revenue, and increased government support payments – in addition to direct health care costs. Individuals bear the economic costs of lost income and the reduction of their savings over the long term. PMID:23452565

Spatiotemporal dynamics of the Ebola epidemic in Guinea and implications for vaccination and disease elimination: a computational modeling analysis.

PubMed

Ajelli, Marco; Merler, Stefano; Fumanelli, Laura; Pastore Y Piontti, Ana; Dean, Natalie E; Longini, Ira M; Halloran, M Elizabeth; Vespignani, Alessandro

2016-09-07

Among the three countries most affected by the Ebola virus disease outbreak in 2014-2015, Guinea presents an unusual spatiotemporal epidemic pattern, with several waves and a long tail in the decay of the epidemic incidence. Here, we develop a stochastic agent-based model at the level of a single household that integrates detailed data on Guinean demography, hospitals, Ebola treatment units, contact tracing, and safe burial interventions. The microsimulation-based model is used to assess the effect of each control strategy and the probability of elimination of the epidemic according to different intervention scenarios, including ring vaccination with the recombinant vesicular stomatitis virus-vectored vaccine. The numerical results indicate that the dynamics of the Ebola epidemic in Guinea can be quantitatively explained by the timeline of the implemented interventions. In particular, the early availability of Ebola treatment units and the associated isolation of cases and safe burials helped to limit the number of Ebola cases experienced by Guinea. We provide quantitative evidence of a strong negative correlation between the time series of cases and the number of traced contacts. This result is confirmed by the computational model that suggests that contact tracing effort is a key determinant in the control and elimination of the disease. In data-driven microsimulations, we find that tracing at least 5-10 contacts per case is crucial in preventing epidemic resurgence during the epidemic elimination phase. The computational model is used to provide an analysis of the ring vaccination trial highlighting its potential effect on disease elimination. We identify contact tracing as one of the key determinants of the epidemic's behavior in Guinea, and we show that the early availability of Ebola treatment unit beds helped to limit the number of Ebola cases in Guinea.

Alternative Strategies to Achieve Cardiovascular Mortality Goals in China and India: A Microsimulation of Target- Versus Risk-Based Blood Pressure Treatment.

PubMed

Basu, Sanjay; Yudkin, John S; Sussman, Jeremy B; Millett, Christopher; Hayward, Rodney A

2016-03-01

The World Health Organization aims to reduce mortality from chronic diseases including cardiovascular disease (CVD) by 25% by 2025. High blood pressure is a leading CVD risk factor. We sought to compare 3 strategies for treating blood pressure in China and India: a treat-to-target (TTT) strategy emphasizing lowering blood pressure to a target, a benefit-based tailored treatment (BTT) strategy emphasizing lowering CVD risk, or a hybrid strategy currently recommended by the World Health Organization. We developed a microsimulation model of adults aged 30 to 70 years in China and in India to compare the 2 treatment approaches across a 10-year policy-planning horizon. In the model, a BTT strategy treating adults with a 10-year CVD event risk of ≥ 10% used similar financial resources but averted ≈ 5 million more disability-adjusted life-years in both China and India than a TTT approach based on current US guidelines. The hybrid strategy in the current World Health Organization guidelines produced no substantial benefits over TTT. BTT was more cost-effective at $205 to $272/disability-adjusted life-year averted, which was $142 to $182 less per disability-adjusted life-year than TTT or hybrid strategies. The comparative effectiveness of BTT was robust to uncertainties in CVD risk estimation and to variations in the age range analyzed, the BTT treatment threshold, or rates of treatment access, adherence, or concurrent statin therapy. In model-based analyses, a simple BTT strategy was more effective and cost-effective than TTT or hybrid strategies in reducing mortality. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

Effects of Reductions in Body Mass Index on Future Osteoarthritis Burden in Canada: A Population-Based Microsimulation Study

PubMed Central

Kopec, Jacek A.; Sayre, Eric C.; Fines, Philippe; Flanagan, William M.; Nadeau, Claude; Okhmatovskaia, Anya; Wolfson, Michael C.

2016-01-01

Background Osteoarthritis (OA) is the most common joint disease and a major cause of disability. Incidence and prevalence of OA are expected to increase due to population aging and increased levels of obesity. Objective The purpose of this study was to project the effect of hypothetical interventions that change the distribution of body mass index (BMI) on OA burden in Canada. Methods We used a microsimulation computer model of OA called POHEM-OA. The model used demographic predictions for Canada and population data from an administrative database in British Columbia and national Canadian surveys. Results Under the base-case scenario, between 2010 and 2030 OA prevalence is expected to increase from 11.5% to 15.6% in men and 16.3% to 21.1% in women. In scenarios assuming, on average, a 0.3, 0.5 or 1-unit drop in BMI/year, OA prevalence in 2030 would reach 14.9%, 14.6% and 14.2% in men and 20.3%, 19.7%, and 18.5%, in women, respectively. Under these scenarios, the proportion of new cases prevented would be 9.5%, 13.2% and 16.7%, respectively, in men, and 9.1%, 15.2% and 25.0% in women. Targeting only those aged 50 years or older for weight reduction would achieve about 70% of the impact of a full population strategy. Targeting only the obese (BMI>30) would likely result in a larger benefit for men than women. Conclusions Due to the aging of the population, OA will remain a major and growing health issue in Canada over the next two decades, regardless of the course of the obesity epidemic. PMID:26606744

Estimating the harms and benefits of prostate cancer screening as used in common practice versus recommended good practice: A microsimulation screening analysis.

PubMed

Carlsson, Sigrid V; de Carvalho, Tiago M; Roobol, Monique J; Hugosson, Jonas; Auvinen, Anssi; Kwiatkowski, Maciej; Villers, Arnauld; Zappa, Marco; Nelen, Vera; Páez, Alvaro; Eastham, James A; Lilja, Hans; de Koning, Harry J; Vickers, Andrew J; Heijnsdijk, Eveline A M

2016-11-15

Prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening and concomitant treatment can be implemented in several ways. The authors investigated how the net benefit of PSA screening varies between common practice versus "good practice." Microsimulation screening analysis (MISCAN) was used to evaluate the effect on quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) if 4 recommendations were followed: limited screening in older men, selective biopsy in men with elevated PSA, active surveillance for low-risk tumors, and treatment preferentially delivered at high-volume centers. Outcomes were compared with a base model in which annual screening started at ages 55 to 69 years and were simulated using data from the European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer. In terms of QALYs gained compared with no screening, for 1000 screened men who were followed over their lifetime, recommended good practice led to 73 life-years (LYs) and 74 QALYs gained compared with 73 LYs and 56 QALYs for the base model. In contrast, common practice led to 78 LYs gained but only 19 QALYs gained, for a greater than 75% relative reduction in QALYs gained from unadjusted LYs gained. The poor outcomes for common practice were influenced predominantly by the use of aggressive treatment for men with low-risk disease, and PSA testing in older men also strongly reduced potential QALY gains. Commonly used PSA screening and treatment practices are associated with little net benefit. Following a few straightforward clinical recommendations, particularly greater use of active surveillance for low-risk disease and reducing screening in older men, would lead to an almost 4-fold increase in the net benefit of prostate cancer screening. Cancer 2016;122:3386-3393. © 2016 American Cancer Society. © 2016 American Cancer Society.

Cost-Effectiveness of a Home Based Intervention for Secondary Prevention of Readmission with Chronic Heart Disease

PubMed Central

Byrnes, Joshua; Carrington, Melinda; Chan, Yih-Kai; Pollicino, Christine; Dubrowin, Natalie; Stewart, Simon; Scuffham, Paul A.

2015-01-01

The aim of this study is to consider the cost-effectiveness of a nurse-led, home-based intervention (HBI) in cardiac patients with private health insurance compared to usual post-discharge care. A within trial analysis of the Young @ Heart multicentre, randomized controlled trial along with a micro-simulation decision analytical model was conducted to estimate the incremental costs and quality adjusted life years associated with the home based intervention compared to usual care. For the micro-simulation model, future costs, from the perspective of the funder, and effects are estimated over a twenty-year time horizon. An Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratio, along with Incremental Net Monetary Benefit, is evaluated using a willingness to pay threshold of $50,000 per quality adjusted life year. Sub-group analyses are conducted for men and women across three age groups separately. Costs and benefits that arise in the future are discounted at five percent per annum. Overall, home based intervention for secondary prevention in patients with chronic heart disease identified in the Australian private health care sector is not cost-effective. The estimated within trial incremental net monetary benefit is -$3,116 [95%CI: -11,145, $4,914]; indicating that the costs outweigh the benefits. However, for males and in particular males aged 75 years and above, home based intervention indicated a potential to reduce health care costs when compared to usual care (within trial: -$10,416 [95%CI: -$26,745, $5,913]; modelled analysis: -$1,980 [95%CI: -$22,843, $14,863]). This work provides a crucial impetus for future research to understand for whom disease management programs are likely to benefit most. PMID:26657844

The OncoSim model: development and use for better decision-making in Canadian cancer control.

PubMed

Gauvreau, C L; Fitzgerald, N R; Memon, S; Flanagan, W M; Nadeau, C; Asakawa, K; Garner, R; Miller, A B; Evans, W K; Popadiuk, C M; Wolfson, M; Coldman, A J

2017-12-01

The Canadian Partnership Against Cancer was created in 2007 by the federal government to accelerate cancer control across Canada. Its OncoSim microsimulation model platform, which consists of a suite of specific cancer models, was conceived as a tool to augment conventional resources for population-level policy- and decision-making. The Canadian Partnership Against Cancer manages the OncoSim program, with funding from Health Canada and model development by Statistics Canada. Microsimulation modelling allows for the detailed capture of population heterogeneity and health and demographic history over time. Extensive data from multiple Canadian sources were used as inputs or to validate the model. OncoSim has been validated through expert consultation; assessments of face validity, internal validity, and external validity; and model fit against observed data. The platform comprises three in-depth cancer models (lung, colorectal, cervical), with another in-depth model (breast) and a generalized model (25 cancers) being in development. Unique among models of its class, OncoSim is available online for public sector use free of charge. Users can customize input values and output display, and extensive user support is provided. OncoSim has been used to support decision-making at the national and jurisdictional levels. Although simulation studies are generally not included in hierarchies of evidence, they are integral to informing cancer control policy when clinical studies are not feasible. OncoSim can evaluate complex intervention scenarios for multiple cancers. Canadian decision-makers thus have a powerful tool to assess the costs, benefits, cost-effectiveness, and budgetary effects of cancer control interventions when faced with difficult choices for improvements in population health and resource allocation.

Aspen: A microsimulation model of the economy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Basu, N.; Pryor, R.J.; Quint, T.

1996-10-01

This report presents, Aspen. Sandia National Laboratories is developing this new agent-based microeconomic simulation model of the U.S. economy. The model is notable because it allows a large number of individual economic agents to be modeled at a high level of detail and with a great degree of freedom. Some features of Aspen are (a) a sophisticated message-passing system that allows individual pairs of agents to communicate, (b) the use of genetic algorithms to simulate the learning of certain agents, and (c) a detailed financial sector that includes a banking system and a bond market. Results from runs of themore » model are also presented.« less

Tax subsidies for health insurance: costs and benefits.

PubMed

Gruber, J; Levitt, L

2000-01-01

The continued rise in the uninsured population has lead to considerable interest in tax-based policies to raise the level of insurance coverage. Using a detailed microsimulation model for evaluating these policies, we find that while tax subsidies could significantly increase insurance coverage, even very generous tax policies could not cover more than a sizable minority of the uninsured population. For example, a generous refundable credit that costs $13 billion per year would reduce the ranks of the uninsured by only four million persons. We also find that the efficiency of tax policies, in terms of the cost per newly insured, inevitably would fall as more of the uninsured were covered.

Travel Demand Modeling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Southworth, Frank; Garrow, Dr. Laurie

This chapter describes the principal types of both passenger and freight demand models in use today, providing a brief history of model development supported by references to a number of popular texts on the subject, and directing the reader to papers covering some of the more recent technical developments in the area. Over the past half century a variety of methods have been used to estimate and forecast travel demands, drawing concepts from economic/utility maximization theory, transportation system optimization and spatial interaction theory, using and often combining solution techniques as varied as Box-Jenkins methods, non-linear multivariate regression, non-linear mathematical programming,more » and agent-based microsimulation.« less

Variation in Adenoma Detection Rate and the Lifetime Benefits and Cost of Colorectal Cancer Screening: A Microsimulation Model

PubMed Central

Meester, Reinier G.S.; Doubeni, Chyke A.; Lansdorp-Vogelaar, Iris; Jensen, Christopher D.; van der Meulen, Miriam P.; Levin, Theodore R.; Quinn, Virginia P.; Schottinger, Joanne E.; Zauber, Ann G.; Corley, Douglas A.; van Ballegooijen, Marjolein

2015-01-01

IMPORTANCE Colonoscopy is the most commonly used colorectal cancer screening test in the United States. Its quality, as measured by adenoma detection rates, varies widely between physicians with unknown consequences for the cost and benefits of screening programs. OBJECTIVE To estimate the lifetime benefits, complications and costs of a colonoscopy screening program at different levels of adenoma detection. DESIGN, SETTING and PARTICIPANTS This study used microsimulation modeling with data from a community-based healthcare system on adenoma detection rate variation and cancer risk among 136 physicians and 57,588 patients for 1998–2010. EXPOSURE Using modeling, no screening was compared to screening initiation with colonoscopy according to adenoma detection rate quintiles (averages 15.3, 21.3, 25.6, 30.9, and 38.7%) at ages 50, 60 and 70 with appropriate surveillance of adenoma patients. MAIN OUTCOMES Estimated lifetime colorectal cancer incidence, mortality, number of colonoscopies, complications and costs per 1,000 patients, all discounted at 3% per year and including 95% confidence intervals from multiway probabilistic sensitivity analysis (95%CI). RESULTS In simulation modeling, among unscreened patients, the lifetime risks of colorectal cancer incidence and mortality were 34.2 (95%CI:25.9–43.6) and 13.4 (95%CI:10.0–17.6) per 1,000, respectively. Among screened patients, simulated lifetime incidence decreased with lower to higher adenoma detection rates (quintile 1 versus 5: 26.6, 95%CI:20.0–34.3 versus 12.5, 95%CI:9.3–16.5) as did mortality (5.7, 95%CI:4.2–7.7 versus 2.3, 95%CI:1.7–3.1). Compared to quintile 1, simulated lifetime incidence and mortality were on average 11.4% (95%CI:10.3–11.9) and 12.8% (95%CI:11.1–13.7) lower, respectively, for every 5 percentage-point higher adenoma detection rate. Total colonoscopies and associated complications were higher from quintile 1 (2,777, 95%CI:2,626–2,943 and 6.0, 95%CI:4.0–8.5) to subsequent quintiles (quintile 5: 3,376, 95%CI:3,081–3,681 and 8.9, 95%CI:6.1–12.0). Estimated net screening costs were, however, lower from quintile 1 (US $2.1 million, 95%CI:1.8–2.4) to quintile 5 (US$1.8 million, 95%CI:1.3–2.3) due to averted cancer treatment costs. Results were stable across sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSIONS-RELEVANCE Using microsimulation modeling, we found that higher adenoma detection was associated with lower lifetime colorectal cancer incidence and mortality without higher overall costs. Future research is needed to assess if increasing adenoma detection would be associated with improved patient outcomes. PMID:26080339

Who gains and who loses with community rating for small business?

PubMed

Buchanan, J L; Marquis, M S

1999-01-01

This paper compares community rating with experience rating for small businesses using a microsimulation model to determine what firms offer and who within these firms purchases insurance. We generate four years of data and find that our results are remarkably stable through time. Both offer and purchase rates are about five percentage points higher under experience rating, but community rating leads to more stable offerings. Under community rating, high-risk firms and families purchase insurance, whereas under experience rating, it is the low-risk firms and families who are the purchasers. Young families and poor families have the lowest purchase rates, with these rates being disproportionately low under community rating.

Three large-scale changes to the Medicare program could curb its costs but also reduce enrollment

PubMed Central

Eibner, Christine; Goldman, Dana P.; Sullivan, Jeffrey; Garber, Alan M.

2013-01-01

Medicare spending accounts for a substantial fraction of Federal spending, and significant program changes may be necessary for long-run fiscal balance. We used a microsimulation approach to estimate how benefit changes to Medicare–including Part A, for hospital care, premiums, premium support credits, and changing the eligibility age–affect long-term Medicare spending and enrollment. All policies considered reduce spending, with reductions ranging from 2.4 to 24 percent between 2012 and 2036. However, the policies also reduce coverage among the elderly. To achieve significant costs savings without causing substantial uninsurance among seniors, benefits changes would likely need to occur in combination with other options. PMID:23650322

Projection of Diabetes Population Size and Associated Economic Burden through 2030 in Iran: Evidence from Micro-Simulation Markov Model and Bayesian Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Javanbakht, Mehdi; Mashayekhi, Atefeh; Baradaran, Hamid R.; Haghdoost, AliAkbar; Afshin, Ashkan

2015-01-01

Background The aim of this study was to estimate the economic burden of diabetes mellitus (DM) in Iran from 2009 to 2030. Methods A Markov micro-simulation (MM) model was developed to predict the DM population size and associated economic burden. Age- and sex-specific prevalence and incidence of diagnosed and undiagnosed DM were derived from national health surveys. A systematic review was performed to identify the cost of diabetes in Iran and the mean annual direct and indirect costs of patients with DM were estimated using a random-effect Bayesian meta-analysis. Face, internal, cross and predictive validity of the MM model were assessed by consulting an expert group, performing sensitivity analysis (SA) and comparing model results with published literature and national survey reports. Sensitivity analysis was also performed to explore the effect of uncertainty in the model. Results We estimated 3.78 million cases of DM (2.74 million diagnosed and 1.04 million undiagnosed) in Iran in 2009. This number is expected to rise to 9.24 million cases (6.73 million diagnosed and 2.50 million undiagnosed) by 2030. The mean annual direct and indirect costs of patients with DM in 2009 were US$ 556 (posterior standard deviation, 221) and US$ 689 (619), respectively. Total estimated annual cost of DM was $3.64 (2009 US$) billion (including US$1.71 billion direct and US$1.93 billion indirect costs) in 2009 and is predicted to increase to $9.0 (in 2009 US$) billion (including US$4.2 billion direct and US$4.8 billion indirect costs) by 2030. Conclusions The economic burden of DM in Iran is predicted to increase markedly in the coming decades. Identification and implementation of effective strategies to prevent and manage DM should be considered as a public health priority. PMID:26200913

Projection of Diabetes Population Size and Associated Economic Burden through 2030 in Iran: Evidence from Micro-Simulation Markov Model and Bayesian Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Javanbakht, Mehdi; Mashayekhi, Atefeh; Baradaran, Hamid R; Haghdoost, AliAkbar; Afshin, Ashkan

2015-01-01

The aim of this study was to estimate the economic burden of diabetes mellitus (DM) in Iran from 2009 to 2030. A Markov micro-simulation (MM) model was developed to predict the DM population size and associated economic burden. Age- and sex-specific prevalence and incidence of diagnosed and undiagnosed DM were derived from national health surveys. A systematic review was performed to identify the cost of diabetes in Iran and the mean annual direct and indirect costs of patients with DM were estimated using a random-effect Bayesian meta-analysis. Face, internal, cross and predictive validity of the MM model were assessed by consulting an expert group, performing sensitivity analysis (SA) and comparing model results with published literature and national survey reports. Sensitivity analysis was also performed to explore the effect of uncertainty in the model. We estimated 3.78 million cases of DM (2.74 million diagnosed and 1.04 million undiagnosed) in Iran in 2009. This number is expected to rise to 9.24 million cases (6.73 million diagnosed and 2.50 million undiagnosed) by 2030. The mean annual direct and indirect costs of patients with DM in 2009 were US$ 556 (posterior standard deviation, 221) and US$ 689 (619), respectively. Total estimated annual cost of DM was $3.64 (2009 US$) billion (including US$1.71 billion direct and US$1.93 billion indirect costs) in 2009 and is predicted to increase to $9.0 (in 2009 US$) billion (including US$4.2 billion direct and US$4.8 billion indirect costs) by 2030. The economic burden of DM in Iran is predicted to increase markedly in the coming decades. Identification and implementation of effective strategies to prevent and manage DM should be considered as a public health priority.

Cost-effectiveness of several atypical antipsychotics in orally disintegrating tablets compared with standard oral tablets in the treatment of schizophrenia in the United States.

PubMed

Ascher-Svanum, Haya; Furiak, Nicolas M; Lawson, Anthony H; Klein, Timothy M; Smolen, Lee J; Conley, Robert R; Culler, Steven D

2012-01-01

Although the use of innovative drug delivery systems, like orally disintegrating antipsychotic tablets (ODT), may facilitate medication adherence and help reduce the risk of relapse and hospitalization, no information is available about the comparative cost-effectiveness of standard oral tablets (SOT) vs ODT formulations in the treatment of schizophrenia. This study compared the cost-effectiveness of olanzapine ODT and olanzapine SOT in the usual treatment of outpatients with schizophrenia from a US healthcare perspective. The study also compared olanzapine ODT with risperidone and aripiprazole, two other atypical antipsychotics available in both ODT and SOT formulations. Published medical literature and a clinical expert panel were used to populate a 1-year Monte Carlo Micro-simulation model. The model captures clinical and cost parameters including adherence levels, treatment discontinuation by reason, relapse with and without inpatient hospitalization, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), treatment-emergent adverse events, healthcare resource utilization, and associated costs. Key outcomes were total annual direct cost per treatment, QALY, and incremental cost-effectiveness (ICER) per 1 QALY gained. Based on model projections, olanzapine ODT therapy was more costly ($9808 vs $9533), but more effective in terms of a lower hospitalization rate (15% vs 16%) and better QALYs (0.747 vs 0.733) than olanzapine SOT therapy. Olanzapine ODT was more cost-effective than olanzapine SOT (ICER: $19,643), more cost-effective than risperidone SOT therapy (ICER: $39,966), and dominant (meaning less costly and more effective) than risperidone ODT and aripiprazole in ODT or SOT formulations. Lack of head-to-head randomized studies comparing the three studied atypical antipsychotics required making input assumptions that need further study. This micro-simulation found that the utilization of olanzapine ODT for the treatment of schizophrenia is predicted to be more cost-effective than any other ODT or SOT formulations of the studied atypical antipsychotic medications.

Contribution of H. pylori and smoking trends to US incidence of intestinal-type noncardia gastric adenocarcinoma: a microsimulation model.

PubMed

Yeh, Jennifer M; Hur, Chin; Schrag, Deb; Kuntz, Karen M; Ezzati, Majid; Stout, Natasha; Ward, Zachary; Goldie, Sue J

2013-01-01

Although gastric cancer has declined dramatically in the US, the disease remains the second leading cause of cancer mortality worldwide. A better understanding of reasons for the decline can provide important insights into effective preventive strategies. We sought to estimate the contribution of risk factor trends on past and future intestinal-type noncardia gastric adenocarcinoma (NCGA) incidence. We developed a population-based microsimulation model of intestinal-type NCGA and calibrated it to US epidemiologic data on precancerous lesions and cancer. The model explicitly incorporated the impact of Helicobacter pylori and smoking on disease natural history, for which birth cohort-specific trends were derived from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) and National Health Interview Survey (NHIS). Between 1978 and 2008, the model estimated that intestinal-type NCGA incidence declined 60% from 11.0 to 4.4 per 100,000 men, <3% discrepancy from national statistics. H. pylori and smoking trends combined accounted for 47% (range = 30%-58%) of the observed decline. With no tobacco control, incidence would have declined only 56%, suggesting that lower smoking initiation and higher cessation rates observed after the 1960s accelerated the relative decline in cancer incidence by 7% (range = 0%-21%). With continued risk factor trends, incidence is projected to decline an additional 47% between 2008 and 2040, the majority of which will be attributable to H. pylori and smoking (81%; range = 61%-100%). Limitations include assuming all other risk factors influenced gastric carcinogenesis as one factor and restricting the analysis to men. Trends in modifiable risk factors explain a significant proportion of the decline of intestinal-type NCGA incidence in the US, and are projected to continue. Although past tobacco control efforts have hastened the decline, full benefits will take decades to be realized, and further discouragement of smoking and reduction of H. pylori should be priorities for gastric cancer control efforts.

Cost-Effectiveness of Enhanced Syphilis Screening among HIV-Positive Men Who Have Sex with Men: A Microsimulation Model

PubMed Central

Tuite, Ashleigh R.; Burchell, Ann N.; Fisman, David N.

2014-01-01

Background Syphilis co-infection risk has increased substantially among HIV-infected men who have sex with men (MSM). Frequent screening for syphilis and treatment of men who test positive might be a practical means of controlling the risk of infection and disease sequelae in this population. Purpose We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of strategies that increased the frequency and population coverage of syphilis screening in HIV-infected MSM receiving HIV care, relative to current standard of care. Methods We developed a state-transition microsimulation model of syphilis natural history and medical care in HIV-infected MSM receiving care for HIV. We performed Monte Carlo simulations using input data derived from a large observational cohort in Ontario, Canada, and from published biomedical literature. Simulations compared usual care (57% of the population screened annually) to different combinations of more frequent (3- or 6-monthly) screening and higher coverage (100% screened). We estimated expected disease-specific outcomes, quality-adjusted survival, costs, and cost-effectiveness associated with each strategy from the perspective of a public health care payer. Results Usual care was more costly and less effective than strategies with more frequent or higher coverage screening. Higher coverage strategies (with screening frequency of 3 or 6 months) were expected to be cost-effective based on usually cited willingness-to-pay thresholds. These findings were robust in the face of probabilistic sensitivity analyses, alternate cost-effectiveness thresholds, and alternate assumptions about duration of risk, program characteristics, and management of underlying HIV. Conclusions We project that higher coverage and more frequent syphilis screening of HIV-infected MSM would be a highly cost-effective health intervention, with many potentially viable screening strategies projected to both save costs and improve health when compared to usual care. The baseline requirement for regular blood testing in this group (i.e., for viral load monitoring) makes intensification of syphilis screening appear readily practicable. PMID:24983455

Evaluation of safety effect of turbo-roundabout lane dividers using floating car data and video observation.

PubMed

Kieć, Mariusz; Ambros, Jiří; Bąk, Radosław; Gogolín, Ondřej

2018-06-01

Roundabouts are one of the safest types of intersections. However, the needs to meet the requirements of operation, capacity, traffic organization and surrounding development lead to a variety of design solutions. One of such alternatives are turbo-roundabouts, which simplify drivers' decision making, limit lane changing in the roundabout, and induce low driving speed thanks to raised lane dividers. However, in spite of their generally positive reception, the safety impact of turbo-roundabouts has not been sufficiently studied. Given the low number of existing turbo-roundabouts and the statistical rarity of accident occurrence, the prevalent previously conducted studies applied only simple before-after designs or relied on traffic conflicts in micro-simulations. Nevertheless, the presence of raised lane dividers is acknowledged as an important feature of well performing and safe turbo-roundabouts. Following the previous Polish studies, the primary objective of the present study was assessment of influence of presence of lane dividers on road safety and developing a reliable and valid surrogate safety measure based on field data, which will circumvent the limitations of accident data or micro-simulations. The secondary objective was using the developed surrogate safety measure to assess and compare the safety levels of Polish turbo-roundabout samples with and without raised lane dividers. The surrogate safety measure was based on speed and lane behaviour. Speed was obtained from video observations and floating car data, which enabled the construction of representative speed profiles. Lane behaviour data was gathered from video observations. The collection of the data allowed for a relative validation of the method by comparing the safety performance of turbo-roundabouts with and without raised lane dividers. In the end, the surrogate measure was applied for evaluation of safety levels and enhancement of the existing safety performance functions, which combine traffic volumes, and speeds as a function of radii). The final models may help quantify the safety impact of different turbo-roundabout solutions. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The economic impact of diabetes through lost labour force participation on individuals and government: evidence from a microsimulation model

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Diabetes is a costly and debilitating disease. The aim of the study is to quantify the individual and national costs of diabetes resulting from people retiring early because of this disease, including lost income; lost income taxation, increased government welfare payments; and reductions in GDP. Methods A purpose-built microsimulation model, Health&WealthMOD2030, was used to estimate the economic costs of early retirement due to diabetes. The study included all Australians aged 45–64 years in 2010 based on Australian Bureau of Statistics’ Surveys of Disability, Ageing and Carers. A multiple regression model was used to identify significant differences in income, government welfare payments and taxation liabilities between people out of the labour force because of their diabetes and those employed full time with no chronic health condition. Results The median annual income of people who retired early because of their diabetes was significantly lower (AU$11 784) compared to those employed full time without a chronic health condition who received almost five times more income. At the national level, there was a loss of AU$384 million in individual earnings by those with diabetes, an extra AU$4 million spent in government welfare payments, a loss of AU$56 million in taxation revenue, and a loss of AU$1 324 million in GDP in 2010: all attributable to diabetes through its impact on labour force participation. Sensitivity analysis was used to assess the impact of different diabetes prevalence rates on estimates of lost income, lost income taxation, increased government welfare payments, and reduced GDP. Conclusions Individuals bear the cost of lost income in addition to the burden of the disease. The Government endures the impacts of lost productivity and income taxation revenue, as well as spending more in welfare payments. These national costs are in addition to the Government’s direct healthcare costs. PMID:24592931

Comparative economic evaluation of data from the ACRIN National CT Colonography Trial with three cancer intervention and surveillance modeling network microsimulations.

PubMed

Vanness, David J; Knudsen, Amy B; Lansdorp-Vogelaar, Iris; Rutter, Carolyn M; Gareen, Ilana F; Herman, Benjamin A; Kuntz, Karen M; Zauber, Ann G; van Ballegooijen, Marjolein; Feuer, Eric J; Chen, Mei-Hsiu; Johnson, C Daniel

2011-11-01

To estimate the cost-effectiveness of computed tomographic (CT) colonography for colorectal cancer (CRC) screening in average-risk asymptomatic subjects in the United States aged 50 years. Enrollees in the American College of Radiology Imaging Network National CT Colonography Trial provided informed consent, and approval was obtained from the institutional review board at each site. CT colonography performance estimates from the trial were incorporated into three Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network CRC microsimulations. Simulated survival and lifetime costs for screening 50-year-old subjects in the United States with CT colonography every 5 or 10 years were compared with those for guideline-concordant screening with colonoscopy, flexible sigmoidoscopy plus either sensitive unrehydrated fecal occult blood testing (FOBT) or fecal immunochemical testing (FIT), and no screening. Perfect and reduced screening adherence scenarios were considered. Incremental cost-effectiveness and net health benefits were estimated from the U.S. health care sector perspective, assuming a 3% discount rate. CT colonography at 5- and 10-year screening intervals was more costly and less effective than FOBT plus flexible sigmoidoscopy in all three models in both 100% and 50% adherence scenarios. Colonoscopy also was more costly and less effective than FOBT plus flexible sigmoidoscopy, except in the CRC-SPIN model assuming 100% adherence (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio: $26,300 per life-year gained). CT colonography at 5- and 10-year screening intervals and colonoscopy were net beneficial compared with no screening in all model scenarios. The 5-year screening interval was net beneficial over the 10-year interval except in the MISCAN model when assuming 100% adherence and willingness to pay $50,000 per life-year gained. All three models predict CT colonography to be more costly and less effective than non-CT colonographic screening but net beneficial compared with no screening given model assumptions. RSNA, 2011

Cost-effectiveness of combined oral bisphosphonate therapy and falls prevention exercise for fracture prevention in the USA.

PubMed

Mori, T; Crandall, C J; Ganz, D A

2017-02-01

We developed a Markov microsimulation model among hypothetical cohorts of community-dwelling US white women without prior major osteoporotic fractures over a lifetime horizon. At ages 75 and 80, adding 1 year of exercise to 5 years of oral bisphosphonate therapy is cost-effective at a conventionally accepted threshold compared with bisphosphonates alone. The purpose of this study was to examine the cost-effectiveness of the combined strategy of oral bisphosphonate therapy for 5 years and falls prevention exercise for 1 year compared with either strategy in isolation. We calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios [ICERs] (2014 US dollars per quality-adjusted life year [QALY]), using a Markov microsimulation model among hypothetical cohorts of community-dwelling US white women with different starting ages (65, 70, 75, and 80) without prior history of hip, vertebral, or wrist fractures over a lifetime horizon from the societal perspective. At ages 65, 70, 75, and 80, the combined strategy had ICERs of $202,020, $118,460, $46,870, and $17,640 per QALY, respectively, compared with oral bisphosphonate therapy alone. The combined strategy provided better health at lower cost than falls prevention exercise alone at ages 70, 75, and 80. In deterministic sensitivity analyses, results were particularly sensitive to the change in the opportunity cost of participants' time spent exercising. In probabilistic sensitivity analyses, the probabilities of the combined strategy being cost-effective compared with the next best alternative increased with age, ranging from 35 % at age 65 to 48 % at age 80 at a willingness-to-pay of $100,000 per QALY. Among community-dwelling US white women ages 75 and 80, adding 1 year of exercise to 5 years of oral bisphosphonate therapy is cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay of $100,000 per QALY, compared with oral bisphosphonate therapy only. This analysis will help clinicians and policymakers make better decisions about treatment options to reduce fracture risk.

Nonbleeding adenomas: Evidence of systematic false-negative fecal immunochemical test results and their implications for screening effectiveness-A modeling study.

PubMed

van der Meulen, Miriam P; Lansdorp-Vogelaar, Iris; van Heijningen, Else-Mariëtte B; Kuipers, Ernst J; van Ballegooijen, Marjolein

2016-06-01

If some adenomas do not bleed over several years, they will cause systematic false-negative fecal immunochemical test (FIT) results. The long-term effectiveness of FIT screening has been estimated without accounting for such systematic false-negativity. There are now data with which to evaluate this issue. The authors developed one microsimulation model (MISCAN [MIcrosimulation SCreening ANalysis]-Colon) without systematic false-negative FIT results and one model that allowed a percentage of adenomas to be systematically missed in successive FIT screening rounds. Both variants were adjusted to reproduce the first-round findings of the Dutch CORERO FIT screening trial. The authors then compared simulated detection rates in the second screening round with those observed, and adjusted the simulated percentage of systematically missed adenomas to those data. Finally, the authors calculated the impact of systematic false-negative FIT results on the effectiveness of repeated FIT screening. The model without systematic false-negativity simulated higher detection rates in the second screening round than observed. These observed rates could be reproduced when assuming that FIT systematically missed 26% of advanced and 73% of nonadvanced adenomas. To reduce the false-positive rate in the second round to the observed level, the authors also had to assume that 30% of false-positive findings were systematically false-positive. Systematic false-negative FIT testing limits the long-term reduction of biennial FIT screening in the incidence of colorectal cancer (35.6% vs 40.9%) and its mortality (55.2% vs 59.0%) in participants. The results of the current study provide convincing evidence based on the combination of real-life and modeling data that a percentage of adenomas are systematically missed by repeat FIT screening. This impairs the efficacy of FIT screening. Cancer 2016;122:1680-8. © 2016 American Cancer Society. © 2016 American Cancer Society.

Projecting the effects of tobacco control policies in the USA through microsimulation: a study protocol.

PubMed

Tam, Jamie; Levy, David T; Jeon, Jihyoun; Clarke, John; Gilkeson, Scott; Hall, Tim; Feuer, Eric J; Holford, Theodore R; Meza, Rafael

2018-03-23

Smoking remains the leading cause of preventable death in the USA but can be reduced through policy interventions. Computational models of smoking can provide estimates of the projected impact of tobacco control policies and can be used to inform public health decision making. We outline a protocol for simulating the effects of tobacco policies on population health outcomes. We extend the Smoking History Generator (SHG), a microsimulation model based on data from the National Health Interview Surveys, to evaluate the effects of tobacco control policies on projections of smoking prevalence and mortality in the USA. The SHG simulates individual life trajectories including smoking initiation, cessation and mortality. We illustrate the application of the SHG policy module for four types of tobacco control policies at the national and state levels: smoke-free air laws, cigarette taxes, increasing tobacco control programme expenditures and raising the minimum age of legal access to tobacco. Smoking initiation and cessation rates are modified by age, birth cohort, gender and years since policy implementation. Initiation and cessation rate modifiers are adjusted for differences across age groups and the level of existing policy coverage. Smoking prevalence, the number of population deaths avoided, and life-years gained are calculated for each policy scenario at the national and state levels. The model only considers direct individual benefits through reduced smoking and does not consider benefits through reduced exposure to secondhand smoke. A web-based interface is being developed to integrate the results of the simulations into a format that allows the user to explore the projected effects of tobacco control policies in the USA. Usability testing is being conducted in which experts provide feedback on the interface. Development of this tool is under way, and a publicly accessible website is available at http://www.tobaccopolicyeffects.org. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Rescreening of persons with a negative colonoscopy result: results from a microsimulation model.

PubMed

Knudsen, Amy B; Hur, Chin; Gazelle, G Scott; Schrag, Deborah; McFarland, Elizabeth G; Kuntz, Karen M

2012-11-06

Persons with a negative result on screening colonoscopy are recommended to repeat the procedure in 10 years. To assess the effectiveness and costs of colonoscopy versus other rescreening strategies after an initial negative colonoscopy result. Microsimulation model. Literature and data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program. Persons aged 50 years who had no adenomas or cancer detected on screening colonoscopy. Lifetime. Societal. No further screening or rescreening starting at age 60 years with colonoscopy every 10 years, annual highly sensitive guaiac fecal occult blood testing (HSFOBT), annual fecal immunochemical testing (FIT), or computed tomographic colonography (CTC) every 5 years. Lifetime cases of colorectal cancer, life expectancy, and lifetime costs per 1000 persons, assuming either perfect or imperfect adherence. Rescreening with any method substantially reduced the risk for colorectal cancer compared with no further screening (range, 7.7 to 12.6 lifetime cases per 1000 persons [perfect adherence] and 17.7 to 20.9 lifetime cases per 1000 persons [imperfect adherence] vs. 31.3 lifetime cases per 1000 persons with no further screening). In both adherence scenarios, the differences in life-years across rescreening strategies were small (range, 30 893 to 30 902 life-years per 1000 persons [perfect adherence] vs. 30 865 to 30 869 life-years per 1000 persons [imperfect adherence]). Rescreening with HSFOBT, FIT, or CTC had fewer complications and was less costly than continuing colonoscopy. Results were sensitive to test-specific adherence rates. Data on adherence to rescreening were limited. Compared with the currently recommended strategy of continuing colonoscopy every 10 years after an initial negative examination, rescreening at age 60 years with annual HSFOBT, annual FIT, or CTC every 5 years provides approximately the same benefit in life-years with fewer complications at a lower cost. Therefore, it is reasonable to use other methods to rescreen persons with negative colonoscopy results. National Cancer Institute.

Projecting the effects of tobacco control policies in the USA through microsimulation: a study protocol

PubMed Central

Levy, David T; Jeon, Jihyoun; Clarke, John; Gilkeson, Scott; Hall, Tim; Holford, Theodore R; Meza, Rafael

2018-01-01

Introduction Smoking remains the leading cause of preventable death in the USA but can be reduced through policy interventions. Computational models of smoking can provide estimates of the projected impact of tobacco control policies and can be used to inform public health decision making. We outline a protocol for simulating the effects of tobacco policies on population health outcomes. Methods and analysis We extend the Smoking History Generator (SHG), a microsimulation model based on data from the National Health Interview Surveys, to evaluate the effects of tobacco control policies on projections of smoking prevalence and mortality in the USA. The SHG simulates individual life trajectories including smoking initiation, cessation and mortality. We illustrate the application of the SHG policy module for four types of tobacco control policies at the national and state levels: smoke-free air laws, cigarette taxes, increasing tobacco control programme expenditures and raising the minimum age of legal access to tobacco. Smoking initiation and cessation rates are modified by age, birth cohort, gender and years since policy implementation. Initiation and cessation rate modifiers are adjusted for differences across age groups and the level of existing policy coverage. Smoking prevalence, the number of population deaths avoided, and life-years gained are calculated for each policy scenario at the national and state levels. The model only considers direct individual benefits through reduced smoking and does not consider benefits through reduced exposure to secondhand smoke. Ethics and dissemination A web-based interface is being developed to integrate the results of the simulations into a format that allows the user to explore the projected effects of tobacco control policies in the USA. Usability testing is being conducted in which experts provide feedback on the interface. Development of this tool is under way, and a publicly accessible website is available at http://www.tobaccopolicyeffects.org. PMID:29574440

Minimising twins in in vitro fertilisation: a modelling study assessing the costs, consequences and cost-utility of elective single versus double embryo transfer over a 20-year time horizon.

PubMed

Scotland, G S; McLernon, D; Kurinczuk, J J; McNamee, P; Harrild, K; Lyall, H; Rajkhowa, M; Hamilton, M; Bhattacharya, S

2011-08-01

To assess the cumulative costs and consequences of double embryo transfer (DET) or elective single embryo transfer (eSET) in women commencing in vitro fertilisation (IVF) treatment aged 32, 36 and 39 years. Microsimulation model. Three assisted reproduction centres in Scotland. A total of 6153 women undergoing treatment at one of three Scottish IVF clinics, between January 1997 and June 2007. A microsimulation model, populated using data inputs derived from a large clinical data set and published literature, was developed to compare the costs and consequences of using eSET or DET over multiple treatment cycles. Disability-free live births; twin pregnancy rate; women's quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs); health service costs. Not only did DET produce a higher cumulative live birth rate compared with eSET for women of all three ages, but also a higher twin pregnancy rate. Compared with eSET, DET ranged from costing an additional £ 27,356 per extra live birth in women commencing treatment aged 32 years, to costing £ 15,539 per extra live birth in 39-year-old women. DET cost ∼ £ 28,300 and ∼ £ 20,300 per additional QALY in women commencing treatment aged 32 and 39 years, respectively. Considering the high twin pregnancy rate associated with DET, coupled with uncertainty surrounding QALY gains, eSET is likely to be the preferred option for most women aged ≤ 36 years. The cost-effectiveness of DET improves with age, and may be considered cost-effective in some groups of older women. The decision may best be considered on a case-by-case basis for women aged 37-39 years. © 2011 The Authors BJOG An International Journal of Obstetrics and Gynaecology © 2011 RCOG.

Cost-effectiveness of bone densitometry among Caucasian women and men without a prior fracture according to age and body weight.

PubMed

Schousboe, J T; Gourlay, M; Fink, H A; Taylor, B C; Orwoll, E S; Barrett-Connor, E; Melton, L J; Cummings, S R; Ensrud, K E

2013-01-01

We used a microsimulation model to estimate the threshold body weights at which screening bone densitometry is cost-effective. Among women aged 55-65 years and men aged 55-75 years without a prior fracture, body weight can be used to identify those for whom bone densitometry is cost-effective. Bone densitometry may be more cost-effective for those with lower body weight since the prevalence of osteoporosis is higher for those with low body weight. Our purpose was to estimate weight thresholds below which bone densitometry is cost-effective for women and men without a prior clinical fracture at ages 55, 60, 65, 75, and 80 years. We used a microsimulation model to estimate the costs and health benefits of bone densitometry and 5 years of fracture prevention therapy for those without prior fracture but with femoral neck osteoporosis (T-score ≤ -2.5) and a 10-year hip fracture risk of ≥3%. Threshold pre-test probabilities of low BMD warranting drug therapy at which bone densitometry is cost-effective were calculated. Corresponding body weight thresholds were estimated using data from the Study of Osteoporotic Fractures (SOF), the Osteoporotic Fractures in Men (MrOS) study, and the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) for 2005-2006. Assuming a willingness to pay of $75,000 per quality adjusted life year (QALY) and drug cost of $500/year, body weight thresholds below which bone densitometry is cost-effective for those without a prior fracture were 74, 90, and 100 kg, respectively, for women aged 55, 65, and 80 years; and were 67, 101, and 108 kg, respectively, for men aged 55, 75, and 80 years. For women aged 55-65 years and men aged 55-75 years without a prior fracture, body weight can be used to select those for whom bone densitometry is cost-effective.

Cost Effectiveness of Screening Individuals With Cystic Fibrosis for Colorectal Cancer.

PubMed

Gini, Andrea; Zauber, Ann G; Cenin, Dayna R; Omidvari, Amir-Houshang; Hempstead, Sarah E; Fink, Aliza K; Lowenfels, Albert B; Lansdorp-Vogelaar, Iris

2018-02-01

Individuals with cystic fibrosis are at increased risk of colorectal cancer (CRC) compared with the general population, and risk is higher among those who received an organ transplant. We performed a cost-effectiveness analysis to determine optimal CRC screening strategies for patients with cystic fibrosis. We adjusted the existing Microsimulation Screening Analysis-Colon model to reflect increased CRC risk and lower life expectancy in patients with cystic fibrosis. Modeling was performed separately for individuals who never received an organ transplant and patients who had received an organ transplant. We modeled 76 colonoscopy screening strategies that varied the age range and screening interval. The optimal screening strategy was determined based on a willingness to pay threshold of $100,000 per life-year gained. Sensitivity and supplementary analyses were performed, including fecal immunochemical test (FIT) as an alternative test, earlier ages of transplantation, and increased rates of colonoscopy complications, to assess if optimal screening strategies would change. Colonoscopy every 5 years, starting at an age of 40 years, was the optimal colonoscopy strategy for patients with cystic fibrosis who never received an organ transplant; this strategy prevented 79% of deaths from CRC. Among patients with cystic fibrosis who had received an organ transplant, optimal colonoscopy screening should start at an age of 30 or 35 years, depending on the patient's age at time of transplantation. Annual FIT screening was predicted to be cost-effective for patients with cystic fibrosis. However, the level of accuracy of the FIT in this population is not clear. Using a Microsimulation Screening Analysis-Colon model, we found screening of patients with cystic fibrosis for CRC to be cost effective. Because of the higher risk of CRC in these patients, screening should start at an earlier age with a shorter screening interval. The findings of this study (especially those on FIT screening) may be limited by restricted evidence available for patients with cystic fibrosis. Copyright © 2018 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Projected impacts of federal tax policy proposals on mortality burden in the United States: A microsimulation analysis.

PubMed

Kim, Daniel

2018-06-01

The public health consequences of federal income tax policies that influence income inequality are not well understood. I aimed to project the impacts on mortality of modifying federal income tax structures based on proposals by two recent United States (U.S.) Presidential candidates: Donald Trump and Senator Bernie Sanders. I performed a microsimulation analysis using the latest U.S. Internal Revenue Service public-use tax file with state identifiers (2008 tax year), containing nationally-representative data from 139,651 tax returns. I considered five tax plan scenarios: 1) actual 2008 tax structures; proposals in 2016 by then-candidates 2) Trump and 3) Sanders; 4) a modified Sanders plan with higher top tax rates (75%); and 5) a modified Sanders plan with higher top rates plus revenue redistribution to lower-income households (<$40,000/year). I combined projected changes in income inequality with vital statistics data and past estimates of linkages between income inequality, income, and mortality. 29,689 (95% CI: 10,865-48,920) more deaths/year and 31,302 (95% CI: 11,455-51,577) fewer deaths/year from all causes are anticipated under the Trump and Sanders plans, respectively. Under the modified Sanders plan including higher top rates, 68,919 (95% CI: 25,221-113,561) fewer deaths/year are projected. Under the modified Sanders plan with redistribution, 333,504 (95% CI: 192,897-473,787) fewer deaths/year are expected. Policies that both raise federal income tax rates and redistribute tax revenue could confer large reductions in the total number of annual deaths among Americans. In this era of high income inequality and growing public support to address the rich-poor gap, policymakers should consider joint federal tax and redistributive policies as levers to reduce the burden of mortality in the United States. Copyright © 2017 The Author. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The macroeconomic consequences of renouncing to universal access to antiretroviral treatment for HIV in Africa: a micro-simulation model.

PubMed

Ventelou, Bruno; Arrighi, Yves; Greener, Robert; Lamontagne, Erik; Carrieri, Patrizia; Moatti, Jean-Paul

2012-01-01

Previous economic literature on the cost-effectiveness of antiretroviral treatment (ART) programs has been mainly focused on the microeconomic consequences of alternative use of resources devoted to the fight against the HIV pandemic. We rather aim at forecasting the consequences of alternative scenarios for the macroeconomic performance of countries. We used a micro-simulation model based on individuals aged 15-49 selected from nationally representative surveys (DHS for Cameroon, Tanzania and Swaziland) to compare alternative scenarios : 1-freezing of ART programs to current levels of access, 2- universal access (scaling up to 100% coverage by 2015, with two variants defining ART eligibility according to previous or current WHO guidelines). We introduced an "artificial" ageing process by programming methods. Individuals could evolve through different health states: HIV negative, HIV positive (with different stages of the syndrome). Scenarios of ART procurement determine this dynamics. The macroeconomic impact is obtained using sample weights that take into account the resulting age-structure of the population in each scenario and modeling of the consequences on total growth of the economy. Increased levels of ART coverage result in decreasing HIV incidence and related mortality. Universal access to ART has a positive impact on workers' productivity; the evaluations performed for Swaziland and Cameroon show that universal access would imply net cost-savings at the scale of the society, when the full macroeconomic consequences are introduced in the calculations. In Tanzania, ART access programs imply a net cost for the economy, but 70% of costs are covered by GDP gains at the 2034 horizon, even in the extended coverage option promoted by WHO guidelines initiating ART at levels of 350 cc/mm(3) CD4 cell counts. Universal Access ART scaling-up strategies, which are more costly in the short term, remain the best economic choice in the long term. Renouncing or significantly delaying the achievement of this goal, due to "legitimate" short term budgetary constraints would be a misguided choice.

Development of Aspen: A microanalytic simulation model of the US economy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pryor, R.J.; Basu, N.; Quint, T.

1996-02-01

This report describes the development of an agent-based microanalytic simulation model of the US economy. The microsimulation model capitalizes on recent technological advances in evolutionary learning and parallel computing. Results are reported for a test problem that was run using the model. The test results demonstrate the model`s ability to predict business-like cycles in an economy where prices and inventories are allowed to vary. Since most economic forecasting models have difficulty predicting any kind of cyclic behavior. These results show the potential of microanalytic simulation models to improve economic policy analysis and to provide new insights into underlying economic principles.more » Work already has begun on a more detailed model.« less

The development of a simulation model of primary prevention strategies for coronary heart disease.

PubMed

Babad, Hannah; Sanderson, Colin; Naidoo, Bhash; White, Ian; Wang, Duolao

2002-11-01

This paper describes the present state of development of a discrete-event micro-simulation model for coronary heart disease prevention. The model is intended to support health policy makers in assessing the impacts on health care resources of different primary prevention strategies. For each person, a set of times to disease events, conditional on the individual's risk factor profile, is sampled from a set of probability distributions that are derived from a new analysis of the Framingham cohort study on coronary heart disease. Methods used to model changes in behavioural and physiological risk factors are discussed and a description of the simulation logic is given. The model incorporates POST (Patient Oriented Simulation Technique) simulation routines.

Traffic jam dynamics in stochastic cellular automata

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nagel, K.; Schreckenberg, M.

1995-09-01

Simple models for particles hopping on a grid (cellular automata) are used to simulate (single lane) traffic flow. Despite their simplicity, these models are astonishingly realistic in reproducing start-stop-waves and realistic fundamental diagrams. One can use these models to investigate traffic phenomena near maximum flow. A so-called phase transition at average maximum flow is visible in the life-times of jams. The resulting dynamic picture is consistent with recent fluid-dynamical results by Kuehne/Kerner/Konhaeuser, and with Treiterer`s hysteresis description. This places CA models between car-following models and fluid-dynamical models for traffic flow. CA models are tested in projects in Los Alamos (USA)more » and in NRW (Germany) for large scale microsimulations of network traffic.« less

Smart Roadside System for Driver Assistance and Safety Warnings: Framework and Applications

PubMed Central

Jang, Jeong Ah; Kim, Hyun Suk; Cho, Han Byeog

2011-01-01

The use of newly emerging sensor technologies in traditional roadway systems can provide real-time traffic services to drivers through Telematics and Intelligent Transport Systems (ITSs). This paper introduces a smart roadside system that utilizes various sensors for driver assistance and traffic safety warnings. This paper shows two road application models for a smart roadside system and sensors: a red-light violation warning system for signalized intersections, and a speed advisory system for highways. Evaluation results for the two services are then shown using a micro-simulation method. In the given real-time applications for drivers, the framework and certain algorithms produce a very efficient solution with respect to the roadway type features and sensor type use. PMID:22164025

Small area estimation of obesity prevalence and dietary patterns: a model applied to Rio de Janeiro city, Brazil.

PubMed

Cataife, Guido

2014-03-01

We propose the use of previously developed small area estimation techniques to monitor obesity and dietary habits in developing countries and apply the model to Rio de Janeiro city. We estimate obesity prevalence rates at the Census Tract through a combinatorial optimization spatial microsimulation model that matches body mass index and socio-demographic data in Brazil's 2008-9 family expenditure survey with Census 2010 socio-demographic data. Obesity ranges from 8% to 25% in most areas and affects the poor almost as much as the rich. Male and female obesity rates are uncorrelated at the small area level. The model is an effective tool to understand the complexity of the problem and to aid in policy design. © 2013 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Structural effect of size on interracial friendship

PubMed Central

Cheng, Siwei; Xie, Yu

2013-01-01

Social contexts exert structural effects on individuals’ social relationships, including interracial friendships. In this study, we posit that, net of group composition, total context size has a distinct effect on interracial friendship. Under the assumptions of (i) maximization of preference in choosing a friend, (ii) multidimensionality of preference, and (iii) preference for same-race friends, we conducted analyses using microsimulation that yielded three main findings. First, increased context size decreases the likelihood of forming an interracial friendship. Second, the size effect increases with the number of preference dimensions. Third, the size effect is diluted by noise, i.e., the random component affecting friendship formation. Analysis of actual friendship data among 4,745 American high school students yielded results consistent with the main conclusion that increased context size promotes racial segregation and discourages interracial friendship. PMID:23589848

The Macroeconomic Consequences of Renouncing to Universal Access to Antiretroviral Treatment for HIV in Africa: A Micro-Simulation Model

PubMed Central

Ventelou, Bruno; Arrighi, Yves; Greener, Robert; Lamontagne, Erik; Carrieri, Patrizia; Moatti, Jean-Paul

2012-01-01

Aim Previous economic literature on the cost-effectiveness of antiretroviral treatment (ART) programs has been mainly focused on the microeconomic consequences of alternative use of resources devoted to the fight against the HIV pandemic. We rather aim at forecasting the consequences of alternative scenarios for the macroeconomic performance of countries. Methods We used a micro-simulation model based on individuals aged 15–49 selected from nationally representative surveys (DHS for Cameroon, Tanzania and Swaziland) to compare alternative scenarios : 1-freezing of ART programs to current levels of access, 2- universal access (scaling up to 100% coverage by 2015, with two variants defining ART eligibility according to previous or current WHO guidelines). We introduced an “artificial” ageing process by programming methods. Individuals could evolve through different health states: HIV negative, HIV positive (with different stages of the syndrome). Scenarios of ART procurement determine this dynamics. The macroeconomic impact is obtained using sample weights that take into account the resulting age-structure of the population in each scenario and modeling of the consequences on total growth of the economy. Results Increased levels of ART coverage result in decreasing HIV incidence and related mortality. Universal access to ART has a positive impact on workers' productivity; the evaluations performed for Swaziland and Cameroon show that universal access would imply net cost-savings at the scale of the society, when the full macroeconomic consequences are introduced in the calculations. In Tanzania, ART access programs imply a net cost for the economy, but 70% of costs are covered by GDP gains at the 2034 horizon, even in the extended coverage option promoted by WHO guidelines initiating ART at levels of 350 cc/mm3 CD4 cell counts. Conclusion Universal Access ART scaling-up strategies, which are more costly in the short term, remain the best economic choice in the long term. Renouncing or significantly delaying the achievement of this goal, due to “legitimate” short term budgetary constraints would be a misguided choice. PMID:22514619

Estimating the health and economic effects of the proposed US Food and Drug Administration voluntary sodium reformulation: Microsimulation cost-effectiveness analysis.

PubMed

Pearson-Stuttard, Jonathan; Kypridemos, Chris; Collins, Brendan; Mozaffarian, Dariush; Huang, Yue; Bandosz, Piotr; Capewell, Simon; Whitsel, Laurie; Wilde, Parke; O'Flaherty, Martin; Micha, Renata

2018-04-01

Sodium consumption is a modifiable risk factor for higher blood pressure (BP) and cardiovascular disease (CVD). The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has proposed voluntary sodium reduction goals targeting processed and commercially prepared foods. We aimed to quantify the potential health and economic impact of this policy. We used a microsimulation approach of a close-to-reality synthetic population (US IMPACT Food Policy Model) to estimate CVD deaths and cases prevented or postponed, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and cost-effectiveness from 2017 to 2036 of 3 scenarios: (1) optimal, 100% compliance with 10-year reformulation targets; (2) modest, 50% compliance with 10-year reformulation targets; and (3) pessimistic, 100% compliance with 2-year reformulation targets, but with no further progress. We used the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey and high-quality meta-analyses to inform model inputs. Costs included government costs to administer and monitor the policy, industry reformulation costs, and CVD-related healthcare, productivity, and informal care costs. Between 2017 and 2036, the optimal reformulation scenario achieving the FDA sodium reduction targets could prevent approximately 450,000 CVD cases (95% uncertainty interval: 240,000 to 740,000), gain approximately 2.1 million discounted QALYs (1.7 million to 2.4 million), and produce discounted cost savings (health savings minus policy costs) of approximately $41 billion ($14 billion to $81 billion). In the modest and pessimistic scenarios, health gains would be 1.1 million and 0.7 million QALYS, with savings of $19 billion and $12 billion, respectively. All the scenarios were estimated with more than 80% probability to be cost-effective (incremental cost/QALY < $100,000) by 2021 and to become cost-saving by 2031. Limitations include evaluating only diseases mediated through BP, while decreasing sodium consumption could have beneficial effects upon other health burdens such as gastric cancer. Further, the effect estimates in the model are based on interventional and prospective observational studies. They are therefore subject to biases and confounding that may have influenced also our model estimates. Implementing and achieving the FDA sodium reformulation targets could generate substantial health gains and net cost savings.

Health and economic benefits of reducing sugar intake in the USA, including effects via non-alcoholic fatty liver disease: a microsimulation model

PubMed Central

Vreman, Rick A; Goodell, Alex J; Rodriguez, Luis A; Porco, Travis C; Lustig, Robert H; Kahn, James G

2017-01-01

Objectives Excessive consumption of added sugars in the human diet has been associated with obesity, type 2 diabetes (T2D), coronary heart disease (CHD) and other elements of the metabolic syndrome. Recent studies have shown that non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a critical pathway to metabolic syndrome. This model assesses the health and economic benefits of interventions aimed at reducing intake of added sugars. Methods Using data from US National Health Surveys and current literature, we simulated an open cohort, for the period 2015–2035. We constructed a microsimulation model with Markov chains for NAFLD (including steatosis, non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC)), body mass index, T2D and CHD. We assessed reductions in population disease prevalence, disease-attributable disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and costs, with interventions that reduce added sugars consumption by either 20% or 50%. Findings The model estimated that a 20% reduction in added sugars intake will reduce prevalence of hepatic steatosis, NASH, cirrhosis, HCC, obesity, T2D and CHD. Incidence of T2D and CHD would be expected to decrease by 19.9 (95% CI 12.8 to 27.0) and 9.4 (95% CI 3.1 to 15.8) cases per 100 000 people after 20 years, respectively. A 20% reduction in consumption is also projected to annually avert 0.767 million (M) DALYs (95% CI 0.757M to 0.777M) and a total of US$10.3 billion (B) (95% CI 10.2B to 10.4B) in discounted direct medical costs by 2035. These effects increased proportionally when added sugars intake were reduced by 50%. Conclusions The decrease in incidence and prevalence of disease is similar to results in other models, but averted costs and DALYs were higher, mainly due to inclusion of NAFLD and CHD. The model suggests that efforts to reduce consumption of added sugars may result in significant public health and economic benefits. PMID:28775179

The impact of diabetes prevention on labour force participation and income of older Australians: an economic study

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Globally, diabetes is estimated to affect 246 million people and is increasing. In Australia diabetes has been made a national health priority. While the direct costs of treating diabetes are substantial, and rising, the indirect costs are considered greater. There is evidence that interventions to prevent diabetes are effective, and cost-effective, but the impact on labour force participation and income has not been assessed. In this study we quantify the potential impact of implementing a diabetes prevention program, using screening and either metformin or a lifestyle intervention on individual economic outcomes of pre-diabetic Australians aged 45-64. Methods The output of an epidemiological microsimulation model of the reduction in prevalence of diabetes from a lifestyle or metformin intervention, and another microsimulation model, Health&WealthMOD, of health and the associated impacts on labour force participation, personal income, savings, government revenue and expenditure were used to quantify the estimated outcomes of the two interventions. Results An additional 753 person years in the labour force would have been achieved from 1993 to 2003 for the male cohort aged 60-64 years in 2003, if a lifestyle intervention had been introduced in 1983; with 890 person years for the equivalent female group. The impact on labour force participation was lower for the metformin intervention, and increased with age for both interventions. The male cohort aged 60-64 years in 2003 would have earned an additional $30 million in income with the metformin intervention, and the equivalent female cohort would have earned an additional $25 million. If the lifestyle intervention was introduced, the same male and female cohorts would have earned an additional $34 million and $28 million respectively from 1993 to 2003. For the individuals involved, on average, males would have earned an additional $44,600 per year and females an additional $31,800 per year, if they had continued to work as a result of preventing diabetes. Conclusions In addition to improved health and wellbeing, considerable benefits to individuals, in terms of both additional working years and increased personal income, could be made by introducing either a lifestyle or metformin intervention to prevent diabetes. PMID:22225701

The impact of diabetes prevention on labour force participation and income of older Australians: an economic study.

PubMed

Passey, Megan E; Shrestha, Rupendra N; Bertram, Melanie Y; Schofield, Deborah J; Vos, Theo; Callander, Emily J; Percival, Richard; Kelly, Simon J

2012-01-06

Globally, diabetes is estimated to affect 246 million people and is increasing. In Australia diabetes has been made a national health priority. While the direct costs of treating diabetes are substantial, and rising, the indirect costs are considered greater. There is evidence that interventions to prevent diabetes are effective, and cost-effective, but the impact on labour force participation and income has not been assessed. In this study we quantify the potential impact of implementing a diabetes prevention program, using screening and either metformin or a lifestyle intervention on individual economic outcomes of pre-diabetic Australians aged 45-64. The output of an epidemiological microsimulation model of the reduction in prevalence of diabetes from a lifestyle or metformin intervention, and another microsimulation model, Health&WealthMOD, of health and the associated impacts on labour force participation, personal income, savings, government revenue and expenditure were used to quantify the estimated outcomes of the two interventions. An additional 753 person years in the labour force would have been achieved from 1993 to 2003 for the male cohort aged 60-64 years in 2003, if a lifestyle intervention had been introduced in 1983; with 890 person years for the equivalent female group. The impact on labour force participation was lower for the metformin intervention, and increased with age for both interventions. The male cohort aged 60-64 years in 2003 would have earned an additional $30 million in income with the metformin intervention, and the equivalent female cohort would have earned an additional $25 million. If the lifestyle intervention was introduced, the same male and female cohorts would have earned an additional $34 million and $28 million respectively from 1993 to 2003. For the individuals involved, on average, males would have earned an additional $44,600 per year and females an additional $31,800 per year, if they had continued to work as a result of preventing diabetes. In addition to improved health and wellbeing, considerable benefits to individuals, in terms of both additional working years and increased personal income, could be made by introducing either a lifestyle or metformin intervention to prevent diabetes.

Simulating the Distribution of Individual Livestock Farms and Their Populations in the United States: An Example Using Domestic Swine (Sus scrofa domesticus) Farms

PubMed Central

Garza, Sarah J.; Miller, Ryan S.

2015-01-01

Livestock distribution in the United States (U.S.) can only be mapped at a county-level or worse resolution. We developed a spatial microsimulation model called the Farm Location and Agricultural Production Simulator (FLAPS) that simulated the distribution and populations of individual livestock farms throughout the conterminous U.S. Using domestic pigs (Sus scrofa domesticus) as an example species, we customized iterative proportional-fitting algorithms for the hierarchical structure of the U.S. Census of Agriculture and imputed unpublished state- or county-level livestock population totals that were redacted to ensure confidentiality. We used a weighted sampling design to collect data on the presence and absence of farms and used them to develop a national-scale distribution model that predicted the distribution of individual farms at a 100 m resolution. We implemented microsimulation algorithms that simulated the populations and locations of individual farms using output from our imputed Census of Agriculture dataset and distribution model. Approximately 19% of county-level pig population totals were unpublished in the 2012 Census of Agriculture and needed to be imputed. Using aerial photography, we confirmed the presence or absence of livestock farms at 10,238 locations and found livestock farms were correlated with open areas, cropland, and roads, and also areas with cooler temperatures and gentler topography. The distribution of swine farms was highly variable, but cross-validation of our distribution model produced an area under the receiver-operating characteristics curve value of 0.78, which indicated good predictive performance. Verification analyses showed FLAPS accurately imputed and simulated Census of Agriculture data based on absolute percent difference values of < 0.01% at the state-to-national scale, 3.26% for the county-to-state scale, and 0.03% for the individual farm-to-county scale. Our output data have many applications for risk management of agricultural systems including epidemiological studies, food safety, biosecurity issues, emergency-response planning, and conflicts between livestock and other natural resources. PMID:26571497

A Systematic Review of Cost-Effectiveness Models in Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus.

PubMed

Henriksson, Martin; Jindal, Ramandeep; Sternhufvud, Catarina; Bergenheim, Klas; Sörstadius, Elisabeth; Willis, Michael

2016-06-01

Critiques of cost-effectiveness modelling in type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) are scarce and are often undertaken in combination with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) models. However, T1DM is a separate disease, and it is therefore important to appraise modelling methods in T1DM. This review identified published economic models in T1DM and provided an overview of the characteristics and capabilities of available models, thus enabling a discussion of best-practice modelling approaches in T1DM. A systematic review of Embase(®), MEDLINE(®), MEDLINE(®) In-Process, and NHS EED was conducted to identify available models in T1DM. Key conferences and health technology assessment (HTA) websites were also reviewed. The characteristics of each model (e.g. model structure, simulation method, handling of uncertainty, incorporation of treatment effect, data for risk equations, and validation procedures, based on information in the primary publication) were extracted, with a focus on model capabilities. We identified 13 unique models. Overall, the included studies varied greatly in scope as well as in the quality and quantity of information reported, but six of the models (Archimedes, CDM [Core Diabetes Model], CRC DES [Cardiff Research Consortium Discrete Event Simulation], DCCT [Diabetes Control and Complications Trial], Sheffield, and EAGLE [Economic Assessment of Glycaemic control and Long-term Effects of diabetes]) were the most rigorous and thoroughly reported. Most models were Markov based, and cohort and microsimulation methods were equally common. All of the more comprehensive models employed microsimulation methods. Model structure varied widely, with the more holistic models providing a comprehensive approach to microvascular and macrovascular events, as well as including adverse events. The majority of studies reported a lifetime horizon, used a payer perspective, and had the capability for sensitivity analysis. Several models have been developed that provide useful insight into T1DM modelling. Based on a review of the models identified in this study, we identified a set of 'best in class' methods for the different technical aspects of T1DM modelling.

Simulating the Distribution of Individual Livestock Farms and Their Populations in the United States: An Example Using Domestic Swine (Sus scrofa domesticus) Farms.

PubMed

Burdett, Christopher L; Kraus, Brian R; Garza, Sarah J; Miller, Ryan S; Bjork, Kathe E

2015-01-01

Livestock distribution in the United States (U.S.) can only be mapped at a county-level or worse resolution. We developed a spatial microsimulation model called the Farm Location and Agricultural Production Simulator (FLAPS) that simulated the distribution and populations of individual livestock farms throughout the conterminous U.S. Using domestic pigs (Sus scrofa domesticus) as an example species, we customized iterative proportional-fitting algorithms for the hierarchical structure of the U.S. Census of Agriculture and imputed unpublished state- or county-level livestock population totals that were redacted to ensure confidentiality. We used a weighted sampling design to collect data on the presence and absence of farms and used them to develop a national-scale distribution model that predicted the distribution of individual farms at a 100 m resolution. We implemented microsimulation algorithms that simulated the populations and locations of individual farms using output from our imputed Census of Agriculture dataset and distribution model. Approximately 19% of county-level pig population totals were unpublished in the 2012 Census of Agriculture and needed to be imputed. Using aerial photography, we confirmed the presence or absence of livestock farms at 10,238 locations and found livestock farms were correlated with open areas, cropland, and roads, and also areas with cooler temperatures and gentler topography. The distribution of swine farms was highly variable, but cross-validation of our distribution model produced an area under the receiver-operating characteristics curve value of 0.78, which indicated good predictive performance. Verification analyses showed FLAPS accurately imputed and simulated Census of Agriculture data based on absolute percent difference values of < 0.01% at the state-to-national scale, 3.26% for the county-to-state scale, and 0.03% for the individual farm-to-county scale. Our output data have many applications for risk management of agricultural systems including epidemiological studies, food safety, biosecurity issues, emergency-response planning, and conflicts between livestock and other natural resources.

Residual lifetime and 10 year absolute risks of osteoporotic fractures in Chinese men and women.

PubMed

Si, Lei; Winzenberg, Tania M; Chen, Mingsheng; Jiang, Qicheng; Palmer, Andrew J

2015-06-01

To determine the residual lifetime and 10 year absolute risks of osteoporotic fractures in Chinese men and women. A validated state-transition microsimulation model was used. Microsimulation and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to address the uncertainties in the model. All parameters including fracture incidence rates and mortality rates were retrieved from published literature. Simulated subjects were run through the model until they died to estimate the residual lifetime fracture risks. A 10 year time horizon was used to determine the 10 year fracture risks. We estimated the risk of only the first osteoporotic fracture during the simulation time horizon. The residual lifetime and 10 year risks of having the first osteoporotic (hip, clinical vertebral or wrist) fracture for Chinese women aged 50 years were 40.9% (95% CI: 38.3-44.0%) and 8.2% (95% CI: 6.8-9.3%) respectively. For men, the residual lifetime and 10 year fracture risks were 8.7% (95% CI: 7.5-9.8%) and 1.2% (95% CI: 0.8-1.7%) respectively. The residual lifetime fracture risks declined with age, whilst the 10 year fracture risks increased with age until the short-term mortality risks outstripped the fracture risks. Residual lifetime and 10 year clinical vertebral fracture risks were higher than those of hip and wrist fractures in both sexes. More than one third of the Chinese women and approximately one tenth of the Chinese men aged 50 years are expected to sustain a major osteoporotic fracture in their remaining lifetimes. Due to increased fracture risks and a rapidly ageing population, osteoporosis will present a great challenge to the Chinese healthcare system. While national data was used wherever possible, regional Chinese hip and clinical vertebral fracture incidence rates were used, wrist fracture rates were taken from a Norwegian study and calibrated to the Chinese population. Other fracture sites like tibia, humerus, ribs and pelvis were not included in the analysis, thus these risks are likely to be underestimates. Fracture risk factors other than age and sex were not included in the model. Point estimates were used for fracture incidence rates, osteoporosis prevalence and mortality rates for the general population.

[Health Care Insurance in France: its impact on income distribution between age and social groups].

PubMed

Fourcade, N; Duval, J; Lardellier, R

2013-08-01

Our study, based on microsimulation models, evaluates the redistributive impact of health care insurance in France on income distribution between age and social groups. This work sheds light on the debate concerning the respective role of the public health care insurance (PHI) and the private supplemental health care insurance (SHI) in France. The analysis points out that the PHI enables the lowest-income households and the pensioners a better access to health care than they would have had under a complete private SHI. Due to the progressivity of taxes, low-income households contribute less to the PHI and get higher benefits because of a weaker health. Pensioners have low contributions to public health care finance but the highest health care expenditures. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Are tax subsidies for private medical insurance self-financing? Evidence from a microsimulation model.

PubMed

López Nicolás, Angel; Vera-Hernández, Marcos

2008-09-01

This paper develops an empirical strategy to estimate whether subsidies to private medical insurance are self-financing in countries where public and private insurance coexist and the latter covers the same treatments as the former. We construct a simulation routine based on a micro-econometric discrete choice model that allows us to evaluate the impact of premium changes on the utilization of outpatient and inpatient health care services. As an application, we estimate the budgetary effects of scrapping a subsidy from the purchase of individual private policies, using micro-data from Catalonia. Our results suggest that the subsidy is not self-financing. This result is driven by the fact that private medical insurance holders make concurrent use of public and private services, and by the price inelasticity of the demand for private policies.

What the 2008 stock market crash means for retirement security.

PubMed

Butrica, Barbara A; Smith, Karen E; Toder, Eric J

2010-10-01

The 2008 stock market crash raises concerns about retirement security, especially since the increased prevalence of 401(k) and similar retirement saving plans means that more Americans are now stakeholders in the equity market than in the past. Using a dynamic microsimulation model, this paper explores the ability of alternate future stock market scenarios to restore retirement assets. The authors find that those near retirement could fare the worst because they have no time to recoup their losses. Mid-career workers could fare better because they have more time to rebuild their wealth. They may even gain income if they buy stocks at low prices and get above-average rates of return. High-income groups will be the most affected because they are most likely to have financial assets and to be invested in the stock market.

The Distributional Impact of Social Security Policy Options.

PubMed

Couch, Kenneth A; Reznik, Gayle L; Tamborini, Christopher R; Iams, Howard M

2017-01-01

Using microsimulation, we estimate the effects of three policy proposals that would alter Social Security's eligibility rules or benefit structure to reflect changes in women's labor force activity, marital patterns, and differential mortality among the aged. First, we estimate a set of options related to the duration of marriage required to receive divorced spouse and survivor benefits. Second, we estimate the effects of an earnings sharing proposal with survivor benefits, in which benefits are based entirely on earned benefits with spouses sharing their earnings during years of marriage. Third, we estimate the effects of adjusting benefits to reflect the increasing differential life expectancy by lifetime earnings. The results advance our understanding of the distributional effects of these alternative policy options on projected benefits and retirement income, including poverty and supplemental poverty status, of divorced and widowed women aged 60 or older in 2030.

Macroeconomic and household-level impacts of HIV/AIDS in Botswana.

PubMed

Jefferis, Keith; Kinghorn, Anthony; Siphambe, Happy; Thurlow, James

2008-07-01

To measure the impact of HIV/AIDS on economic growth and poverty in Botswana and estimate how providing treatment can mitigate its effects. Demographic and financial projections were combined with economic simulation models, including a macroeconomic growth model and a macro-microeconomic computable general equilibrium and microsimulation model. HIV/AIDS significantly reduces economic growth and increases household poverty. The impact is now severe enough to be affecting the economy as a whole, and threatens to pull some of the uninfected population into poverty. Providing antiretroviral therapy can partly offset this negative effect. Treatment increases health's share of government expenditure only marginally, because it increases economic growth and because withholding treatment raises the cost of other health services. Botswana's treatment programme is appropriate from a macroeconomic perspective. Conducting macroeconomic impact assessments is important in countries where prevalence rates are particularly high.

Cost-effectiveness of Maintenance Treatment with a Barrier-strengthening Moisturizing Cream in Patients with Atopic Dermatitis in Finland, Norway and Sweden.

PubMed

Norrlid, Hanna; Hjalte, Frida; Lundqvist, Adam; Svensson, Åke; Tennvall, Gunnel Ragnarson

2016-02-01

Atopic dermatitis is a chronic skin disorder with high prevalence, especially in the Nordic countries. Effective maintenance therapy during symptom-free episodes may prolong the time to eczema relapse according to a previously published clinical trial. The present study evaluates the cost-effectiveness of a barrier-strengthening moisturizer containing 5% urea, compared with a moisturizer with no active ingredients during eczema-free periods. A health economic microsimulation model, based on efficacy data from the randomized clinical trial, analysed the cost-effectiveness of the barrier-strengthening treatment in Finland, Norway and Sweden. The barrier-strengthening moisturizer was cost-saving compared with the moisturizer with no active ingredients in all 3 countries. The result was confirmed in all but one sensitivity analysis. In conclusion, the barrier-strengthening moisturizer is cost-effective as maintenance therapy for patients with atopic dermatitis compared with a moisturizer with no active ingredients.

Growing a market economy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Basu, N.; Pryor, R.J.

1997-09-01

This report presents a microsimulation model of a transition economy. Transition is defined as the process of moving from a state-enterprise economy to a market economy. The emphasis is on growing a market economy starting from basic microprinciples. The model described in this report extends and modifies the capabilities of Aspen, a new agent-based model that is being developed at Sandia National Laboratories on a massively parallel Paragon computer. Aspen is significantly different from traditional models of the economy. Aspen`s emphasis on disequilibrium growth paths, its analysis based on evolution and emergent behavior rather than on a mechanistic view ofmore » society, and its use of learning algorithms to simulate the behavior of some agents rather than an assumption of perfect rationality make this model well-suited for analyzing economic variables of interest from transition economies. Preliminary results from several runs of the model are included.« less

Redistributing wealth to families: the advantages of the MYRIADE model.

PubMed

Legendre, François; Lorgnet, Jean-Paul; Thibault, Florence

2005-10-01

This study aims to shed light on the main characteristics of the French system for redistributing wealth to families through tax revenues and social transfers. For the purposes of this exercise, the authors used the MYRIADE microsimulation model, which covers most of the redistribution system, though it is limited to monetary flows such as family benefits, housing allowances, minimum social welfare payments, income tax, and tax on furnished accommodation. The authors used a particular methodology to highlight the way this redistribution works; rather than calculate the difference between each family's disposable income and their gross primary income, they opted to isolate the variation in disposable income that could be attributed to the youngest member of each family where there is at least one child under the age of 25. The average increase in disposable income that this child contributes to his or her family amounts to in200 per month.

Tourism Contribution to Poverty Alleviation in Kenya: A Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Analysis.

PubMed

Njoya, Eric Tchouamou; Seetaram, Neelu

2018-04-01

The aim of this article is to investigate the claim that tourism development can be the engine for poverty reduction in Kenya using a dynamic, microsimulation computable general equilibrium model. The article improves on the common practice in the literature by using the more comprehensive Foster-Greer-Thorbecke (FGT) index to measure poverty instead of headcount ratios only. Simulations results from previous studies confirm that expansion of the tourism industry will benefit different sectors unevenly and will only marginally improve poverty headcount. This is mainly due to the contraction of the agricultural sector caused the appreciation of the real exchange rates. This article demonstrates that the effect on poverty gap and poverty severity is, nevertheless, significant for both rural and urban areas with higher impact in the urban areas. Tourism expansion enables poorer households to move closer to the poverty line. It is concluded that the tourism industry is pro-poor.

[Decision modeling for economic evaluation of health technologies].

PubMed

de Soárez, Patrícia Coelho; Soares, Marta Oliveira; Novaes, Hillegonda Maria Dutilh

2014-10-01

Most economic evaluations that participate in decision-making processes for incorporation and financing of technologies of health systems use decision models to assess the costs and benefits of the compared strategies. Despite the large number of economic evaluations conducted in Brazil, there is a pressing need to conduct an in-depth methodological study of the types of decision models and their applicability in our setting. The objective of this literature review is to contribute to the knowledge and use of decision models in the national context of economic evaluations of health technologies. This article presents general definitions about models and concerns with their use; it describes the main models: decision trees, Markov chains, micro-simulation, simulation of discrete and dynamic events; it discusses the elements involved in the choice of model; and exemplifies the models addressed in national economic evaluation studies of diagnostic and therapeutic preventive technologies and health programs.

General Revenue Financing of Medicare: Who Will Bear the Burden?

PubMed Central

Johnson, Janet L.; Long, Stephen H.

1982-01-01

Two recent national advisory committees on Social Security recommended major shifts in Medicare financing to preserve the financial viability of the Social Security trust funds. This paper estimates the income redistribution consequences of the two proposals, in contrast to current law, using a micro-simulation model of taxes and premiums. These estimates show that while the current Medicare financing package is mildly progressive, the new proposals would substantially increase income redistribution under the program. Two insights provided by separate estimates, for families headed by the elderly (persons age 65 or over) versus those headed by the non-elderly, are: 1) the surprisingly large Medicare tax burdens on families headed by the elderly under the current financing package of payroll taxes, general revenues, and enrollee premiums; and 2) the substantial increases in these burdens under proposed shifts toward increased general revenue financing. PMID:10309601

Cost-effectiveness of one-time genetic testing to minimize lifetime adverse drug reactions.

PubMed

Alagoz, O; Durham, D; Kasirajan, K

2016-04-01

We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of one-time pharmacogenomic testing for preventing adverse drug reactions (ADRs) over a patient's lifetime. We developed a Markov-based Monte Carlo microsimulation model to represent the ADR events in the lifetime of each patient. The base-case considered a 40-year-old patient. We measured health outcomes in life years (LYs) and quality-adjusted LYs (QALYs) and estimated costs using 2013 US$. In the base-case, one-time genetic testing had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $43,165 (95% confidence interval (CI) is ($42,769,$43,561)) per additional LY and $53,680 per additional QALY (95% CI is ($53,182,$54,179)), hence under the base-case one-time genetic testing is cost-effective. The ICER values were most sensitive to the average probability of death due to ADR, reduction in ADR rate due to genetic testing, mean ADR rate and cost of genetic testing.

Assessing and forecasting population health: integrating knowledge and beliefs in a comprehensive framework.

PubMed

Van Meijgaard, Jeroen; Fielding, Jonathan E; Kominski, Gerald F

2009-01-01

A comprehensive population health-forecasting model has the potential to interject new and valuable information about the future health status of the population based on current conditions, socioeconomic and demographic trends, and potential changes in policies and programs. Our Health Forecasting Model uses a continuous-time microsimulation framework to simulate individuals' lifetime histories by using birth, risk exposures, disease incidence, and death rates to mark changes in the state of the individual. The model generates a reference forecast of future health in California, including details on physical activity, obesity, coronary heart disease, all-cause mortality, and medical expenditures. We use the model to answer specific research questions, inform debate on important policy issues in public health, support community advocacy, and provide analysis on the long-term impact of proposed changes in policies and programs, thus informing stakeholders at all levels and supporting decisions that can improve the health of populations.

Assortative mating without assortative preference

PubMed Central

Xie, Yu; Cheng, Siwei; Zhou, Xiang

2015-01-01

Assortative mating—marriage of a man and a woman with similar social characteristics—is a commonly observed phenomenon. In the existing literature in both sociology and economics, this phenomenon has mainly been attributed to individuals’ conscious preferences for assortative mating. In this paper, we show that patterns of assortative mating may arise from another structural source even if individuals do not have assortative preferences or possess complementary attributes: dynamic processes of marriages in a closed system. For a given cohort of youth in a finite population, as the percentage of married persons increases, unmarried persons who newly enter marriage are systematically different from those who married earlier, giving rise to the phenomenon of assortative mating. We use microsimulation methods to illustrate this dynamic process, using first the conventional deterministic Gale–Shapley model, then a probabilistic Gale–Shapley model, and then two versions of the encounter mating model. PMID:25918366

Tourism Contribution to Poverty Alleviation in Kenya: A Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Analysis

PubMed Central

Njoya, Eric Tchouamou; Seetaram, Neelu

2017-01-01

The aim of this article is to investigate the claim that tourism development can be the engine for poverty reduction in Kenya using a dynamic, microsimulation computable general equilibrium model. The article improves on the common practice in the literature by using the more comprehensive Foster-Greer-Thorbecke (FGT) index to measure poverty instead of headcount ratios only. Simulations results from previous studies confirm that expansion of the tourism industry will benefit different sectors unevenly and will only marginally improve poverty headcount. This is mainly due to the contraction of the agricultural sector caused the appreciation of the real exchange rates. This article demonstrates that the effect on poverty gap and poverty severity is, nevertheless, significant for both rural and urban areas with higher impact in the urban areas. Tourism expansion enables poorer households to move closer to the poverty line. It is concluded that the tourism industry is pro-poor. PMID:29595836

Raising the Social Security Entitlement Age.

PubMed

Zissimopoulos, Julie; Blaylock, Barbara; Goldman, Dana P; Rowe, John W

2017-01-01

An aging America presents challenges but also brings social and economic capital. We quantify public revenues from, and public expenditures on, Americans aged 65 and older, the value of their unpaid, productive activities and financial gifts to family. Using microsimulation, we project the value of these activities, and government revenues and expenditures, under different scenarios of change to the Old Age and Survivors Insurance eligibility age through 2050. We find the value of unpaid productive activities and financial gifts are US$721 billion in 2010, while net (of tax revenues) spending on the 65 years and older is US$984 billion. Five-year delay in the full retirement age decreases federal spending by 10%, while 2-year delay in the early entitlement age increases it by 1.5%. The effect of 5-year delay on unpaid activities and transfers is small: US$4 billion decrease in services and US$4.5 billion increase in bequests and monetary gifts.

Lowering social security's duration-of-marriage requirement: distributional effects for future female retirees.

PubMed

Tamborini, Christopher R; Whitman, Kevin

2010-01-01

A number of alternatives to Social Security's auxiliary benefit system have been proposed in the context of changes in American family and work patterns. This article focuses on one modification therein-lowering the 10-year duration-of-marriage requirement for divorced spouses. Using a powerful microsimulation model (MINT), we examine the distributional effects of extending spouse and survivor benefit eligibility to 5- and 7-year marriages ending in divorce among female retirees in 2030, a population largely comprised of baby boomers. Results show that the options would increase benefits for a small share of female retirees, around 2 to 4%, and would not affect the vast majority of low-income divorced older women. However, of those affected, the options would substantially increase benefits and lower incidence of poverty and near poor. Low-income divorced retirees with marriages between 5 and 9 years in length and a deceased former spouse face the greatest potential gains.

Differences in Health between Americans and Western Europeans: Effects on Longevity and Public Finance

PubMed Central

Goldman, Dana; Lakdawalla, Darius; Gailey, Adam; Zheng, Yuhui

2011-01-01

In 1975, 50 year-old Americans could expect to live slightly longer than most of their Western European counterparts. By 2005, American life expectancy had fallen behind that of most Western European countries. We find that this growing longevity gap is primarily due to real declines in the health of near-elderly Americans, relative to their Western European peers. We use a microsimulation approach to project what US longevity would look like, if US health trends approximated those in Western Europe. The model implies that differences in health can explain most of the growing gap in remaining life expectancy. In addition, we quantify the public finance consequences of this deterioration in health. The model predicts that gradually moving American cohorts to the health status enjoyed by Western Europeans could save up to $1.1 trillion in discounted total health expenditures from 2004 to 2050. PMID:21719178

Differences in health between Americans and Western Europeans: Effects on longevity and public finance.

PubMed

Michaud, Pierre-Carl; Goldman, Dana; Lakdawalla, Darius; Gailey, Adam; Zheng, Yuhui

2011-07-01

In 1975, 50-year-old Americans could expect to live slightly longer than most of their Western European counterparts. By 2005, American life expectancy had fallen behind that of most Western European countries. We find that this growing longevity gap is primarily due to real declines in the health of near-elderly Americans, relative to their Western European peers. We use a microsimulation approach to project what US longevity would look like, if US health trends approximated those in Western Europe. The model implies that differences in health can explain most of the growing gap in remaining life expectancy. In addition, we quantify the public finance consequences of this deterioration in health. The model predicts that gradually moving American cohorts to the health status enjoyed by Western Europeans could save up to $1.1 trillion in discounted total health expenditures from 2004 to 2050. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Health and economic benefits of reducing sugar intake in the USA, including effects via non-alcoholic fatty liver disease: a microsimulation model.

PubMed

Vreman, Rick A; Goodell, Alex J; Rodriguez, Luis A; Porco, Travis C; Lustig, Robert H; Kahn, James G

2017-08-03

Excessive consumption of added sugars in the human diet has been associated with obesity, type 2 diabetes (T2D), coronary heart disease (CHD) and other elements of the metabolic syndrome. Recent studies have shown that non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a critical pathway to metabolic syndrome. This model assesses the health and economic benefits of interventions aimed at reducing intake of added sugars. Using data from US National Health Surveys and current literature, we simulated an open cohort, for the period 2015-2035. We constructed a microsimulation model with Markov chains for NAFLD (including steatosis, non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC)), body mass index, T2D and CHD. We assessed reductions in population disease prevalence, disease-attributable disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and costs, with interventions that reduce added sugars consumption by either 20% or 50%. The model estimated that a 20% reduction in added sugars intake will reduce prevalence of hepatic steatosis, NASH, cirrhosis, HCC, obesity, T2D and CHD. Incidence of T2D and CHD would be expected to decrease by 19.9 (95% CI 12.8 to 27.0) and 9.4 (95% CI 3.1 to 15.8) cases per 100 000 people after 20 years, respectively. A 20% reduction in consumption is also projected to annually avert 0.767 million (M) DALYs (95% CI 0.757M to 0.777M) and a total of US$10.3 billion (B) (95% CI 10.2B to 10.4B) in discounted direct medical costs by 2035. These effects increased proportionally when added sugars intake were reduced by 50%. The decrease in incidence and prevalence of disease is similar to results in other models, but averted costs and DALYs were higher, mainly due to inclusion of NAFLD and CHD. The model suggests that efforts to reduce consumption of added sugars may result in significant public health and economic benefits. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

The costs of diabetes among Australians aged 45–64 years from 2015 to 2030: projections of lost productive life years (PLYs), lost personal income, lost taxation revenue, extra welfare payments and lost gross domestic product from Health&WealthMOD2030

PubMed Central

Schofield, Deborah; Shrestha, Rupendra N; Cunich, Michelle M; Veerman, Lennert; Tanton, Robert; Kelly, Simon J

2017-01-01

Objectives To project the number of people aged 45–64 years with lost productive life years (PLYs) due to diabetes and related costs (lost income, extra welfare payments, lost taxation revenue); and lost gross domestic product (GDP) attributable to diabetes in Australia from 2015 to 2030. Design A simulation study of how the number of people aged 45–64 years with diabetes increases over time (based on population growth and disease trend data) and the economic losses incurred by individuals and the government. Cross-sectional outputs of a microsimulation model (Health&WealthMOD2030) which used the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ Survey of Disability, Ageing and Carers 2003 and 2009 as a base population and integrated outputs from two microsimulation models (Static Incomes Model and Australian Population and Policy Simulation Model), Treasury's population and labour force projections, and chronic disease trends data. Setting Australian population aged 45–64 years in 2015, 2020, 2025 and 2030. Outcome measures Lost PLYs, lost income, extra welfare payments, lost taxation revenue, lost GDP. Results 18 100 people are out of the labour force due to diabetes in 2015, increasing to 21 400 in 2030 (18% increase). National costs consisted of a loss of $A467 million in annual income in 2015, increasing to $A807 million in 2030 (73% increase). For the government, extra annual welfare payments increased from $A311 million in 2015 to $A350 million in 2030 (13% increase); and lost annual taxation revenue increased from $A102 million in 2015 to $A166 million in 2030 (63% increase). A loss of $A2.1 billion in GDP was projected for 2015, increasing to $A2.9 billion in 2030 attributable to diabetes through its impact on PLYs. Conclusions Individuals incur significant costs of diabetes through lost PLYs and lost income in addition to disease burden through human suffering and healthcare costs. The government incurs extra welfare payments, lost taxation revenue and lost GDP, along with direct healthcare costs. PMID:28069621

Estimating the health and economic effects of the proposed US Food and Drug Administration voluntary sodium reformulation: Microsimulation cost-effectiveness analysis

PubMed Central

Huang, Yue; Bandosz, Piotr; Capewell, Simon; Wilde, Parke

2018-01-01

Background Sodium consumption is a modifiable risk factor for higher blood pressure (BP) and cardiovascular disease (CVD). The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has proposed voluntary sodium reduction goals targeting processed and commercially prepared foods. We aimed to quantify the potential health and economic impact of this policy. Methods and findings We used a microsimulation approach of a close-to-reality synthetic population (US IMPACT Food Policy Model) to estimate CVD deaths and cases prevented or postponed, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and cost-effectiveness from 2017 to 2036 of 3 scenarios: (1) optimal, 100% compliance with 10-year reformulation targets; (2) modest, 50% compliance with 10-year reformulation targets; and (3) pessimistic, 100% compliance with 2-year reformulation targets, but with no further progress. We used the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey and high-quality meta-analyses to inform model inputs. Costs included government costs to administer and monitor the policy, industry reformulation costs, and CVD-related healthcare, productivity, and informal care costs. Between 2017 and 2036, the optimal reformulation scenario achieving the FDA sodium reduction targets could prevent approximately 450,000 CVD cases (95% uncertainty interval: 240,000 to 740,000), gain approximately 2.1 million discounted QALYs (1.7 million to 2.4 million), and produce discounted cost savings (health savings minus policy costs) of approximately $41 billion ($14 billion to $81 billion). In the modest and pessimistic scenarios, health gains would be 1.1 million and 0.7 million QALYS, with savings of $19 billion and $12 billion, respectively. All the scenarios were estimated with more than 80% probability to be cost-effective (incremental cost/QALY < $100,000) by 2021 and to become cost-saving by 2031. Limitations include evaluating only diseases mediated through BP, while decreasing sodium consumption could have beneficial effects upon other health burdens such as gastric cancer. Further, the effect estimates in the model are based on interventional and prospective observational studies. They are therefore subject to biases and confounding that may have influenced also our model estimates. Conclusions Implementing and achieving the FDA sodium reformulation targets could generate substantial health gains and net cost savings. PMID:29634725

A Bayesian micro-simulation to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of interventions for mastitis control during the dry period in UK dairy herds.

PubMed

Down, P M; Bradley, A J; Breen, J E; Browne, W J; Kypraios, T; Green, M J

2016-10-01

Importance of the dry period with respect to mastitis control is now well established although the precise interventions that reduce the risk of acquiring intramammary infections during this time are not clearly understood. There are very few intervention studies that have measured the clinical efficacy of specific mastitis interventions within a cost-effectiveness framework so there remains a large degree of uncertainty about the impact of a specific intervention and its costeffectiveness. The aim of this study was to use a Bayesian framework to investigate the cost-effectiveness of mastitis controls during the dry period. Data were assimilated from 77 UK dairy farms that participated in a British national mastitis control programme during 2009-2012 in which the majority of intramammary infections were acquired during the dry period. The data consisted of clinical mastitis (CM) and somatic cell count (SCC) records, herd management practices and details of interventions that were implemented by the farmer as part of the control plan. The outcomes used to measure the effectiveness of the interventions were i) changes in the incidence rate of clinical mastitis during the first 30days after calving and ii) the rate at which cows gained new infections during the dry period (measured by SCC changes across the dry period from <200,000cells/ml to >200,000cells/ml). A Bayesian one-step microsimulation model was constructed such that posterior predictions from the model incorporated uncertainty in all parameters. The incremental net benefit was calculated across 10,000 Markov chain Monte Carlo iterations, to estimate the cost-benefit (and associated uncertainty) of each mastitis intervention. Interventions identified as being cost-effective in most circumstances included selecting dry-cow therapy at the cow level, dry-cow rations formulated by a qualified nutritionist, use of individual calving pens, first milking cows within 24h of calving and spreading bedding evenly in dry-cow yards. The results of this study highlighted the efficacy of specific mastitis interventions in UK conditions which, when incorporated into a costeffectiveness framework, can be used to optimize decision making in mastitis control. This intervention study provides an example of how an intuitive and clinically useful Bayesian approach can be used to form the basis of an on-farm decision support tool. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

A Cost-Utility and Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Different Oral Antiviral Medications in Patients With HBeAg-Negative Chronic Hepatitis B in Iran: An Economic Microsimulation Decision Model.

PubMed

Keshavarz, Khosro; Kebriaeezadeh, Abbas; Alavian, Seyed Moayed; Akbari Sari, Ali; Rezaei Hemami, Mohsen; Lotfi, Farhad; Hashemi Meshkini, Amir; Javanbakht, Mehdi; Keshvari, Maryam; Nikfar, Shekoufeh

2016-09-01

Although hepatitis B infection is the major cause of chronic liver disease in Iran, no studies have employed economic evaluations of the medications used to treat Iranian patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). Therefore, the cost-effectiveness of the different treatment options for this disease in Iran is unknown. The aim of this study was to compare the cost utility and cost-effectiveness of medication strategies tailored to local conditions in patients with HB e antigen (HBeAg)-negative CHB infection in Iran. An economic evaluation of the cost utility of the following five oral medication strategies was conducted: adefovir (ADV), lamivudine (LAM), ADV + LAM, entecavir (ETV), and tenofovir (TDF). A Markov microsimulation model was used to estimate the clinical and economic outcomes over the course of the patient's lifetime and based on a societal perspective. Medical and nonmedical direct costs and indirect costs were included in the study and life-years gained (LYG) and quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) were determined as measures of effectiveness. The results are presented in terms of the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) per QALY or LYG. The model consisted of nine stages of the disease. The transition probabilities for the movement between the different stages were based on clinical evidence and international expert opinion. A probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) was used to measure the effects of uncertainty in the model parameters. The results revealed that the TDF treatment strategy was more effective and less costly than the other options. In addition, TDF had the highest QALY and LYG in the HBeAg-negative CHB patients, with 13.58 and 21.26 (discounted) in all comparisons. The PSA proved the robustness of the model results. The cost-effectiveness acceptability curves showed that TDF was the most cost-effective treatment in 59% - 78% of the simulations of HBeAg-negative patients, with WTP thresholds less than $14010 (maximum WTP per QALY). The use of TDF in patients with HBeAg-negative CHB seemed to be a highly cost-effective strategy. Compared with the other available medication options, TDF was the most cost-saving strategy. Thus, TDF may be the best option as a first-line medication. Patients can also be switched from other medications to TDF.

Annual Report to the Nation on the Status of Cancer, 1975–2006, Featuring Colorectal Trends and Impact of Interventions (Risk Factors, Screening, and Treatment) to Reduce Future Rates

PubMed Central

Edwards, Brenda K.; Ward, Elizabeth; Kohler, Betsy A.; Eheman, Christie; Zauber, Ann G.; Anderson, Robert N.; Jemal, Ahmedin; Schymura, Maria J.; Lansdorp-Vogelaar, Iris; Seeff, Laura C.; van Ballegooijen, Marjolein; Goede, S. Luuk; Ries, Lynn A. G.

2009-01-01

Background The American Cancer Society (ACS), the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the National Cancer Institute (NCI), and the North American Association of Central Cancer Registries (NAACCR) collaborate annually to provide updated information about cancer occurrence and trends in the United States (U.S.). This year’s report includes trends in colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence and death rates and highlights use of microsimulation modeling as a tool for interpreting past trends and projecting future trends to assist in cancer control planning and policy decisions. Methods Information on invasive cancers was obtained from the NCI, CDC, and NAACCR, and information on deaths from the CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics. Annual percentage changes in the age-standardized incidence and death rates (2000 U.S. population standard) for all cancers combined and for the top 15 cancers were estimated by joinpoint analysis of long-term (1975–2006) trends and short-term fixed interval (1997–2006) trends. All statistical tests were two-sided. Results Both incidence and death rates from all cancers combined significantly declined (P < .05) in the most recent time period for men and women overall and for most racial and ethnic populations. These decreases were driven largely by declines in both incidence and death rates for the 3 most common cancers in men (i.e., lung and prostate cancers and CRC) and for two of the 3 leading cancers in women (i.e., breast cancer and CRC). The long-term trends for lung cancer mortality in women showed smaller and smaller increases until 2003 when there was a change to a non-significant decline. Microsimulation modeling shows that declines in CRC death rates are consistent with a relatively large contribution from screening and with a smaller but demonstrable impact of risk factor reductions and improved treatments. These declines are projected to continue if risk factor modification, screening, and treatment remain at current rates, but could be further accelerated with favorable trends in risk factors and higher utilization of screening and optimal treatment. Conclusions Although the decrease in overall cancer incidence and death rates is encouraging, rising incidence and mortality for some cancers are of concern. PMID:19998273

The costs of diabetes among Australians aged 45-64 years from 2015 to 2030: projections of lost productive life years (PLYs), lost personal income, lost taxation revenue, extra welfare payments and lost gross domestic product from Health&WealthMOD2030.

PubMed

Schofield, Deborah; Shrestha, Rupendra N; Cunich, Michelle M; Passey, Megan E; Veerman, Lennert; Tanton, Robert; Kelly, Simon J

2017-01-09

To project the number of people aged 45-64 years with lost productive life years (PLYs) due to diabetes and related costs (lost income, extra welfare payments, lost taxation revenue); and lost gross domestic product (GDP) attributable to diabetes in Australia from 2015 to 2030. A simulation study of how the number of people aged 45-64 years with diabetes increases over time (based on population growth and disease trend data) and the economic losses incurred by individuals and the government. Cross-sectional outputs of a microsimulation model (Health&WealthMOD2030) which used the Australian Bureau of Statistics' Survey of Disability, Ageing and Carers 2003 and 2009 as a base population and integrated outputs from two microsimulation models (Static Incomes Model and Australian Population and Policy Simulation Model), Treasury's population and labour force projections, and chronic disease trends data. Australian population aged 45-64 years in 2015, 2020, 2025 and 2030. Lost PLYs, lost income, extra welfare payments, lost taxation revenue, lost GDP. 18 100 people are out of the labour force due to diabetes in 2015, increasing to 21 400 in 2030 (18% increase). National costs consisted of a loss of $A467 million in annual income in 2015, increasing to $A807 million in 2030 (73% increase). For the government, extra annual welfare payments increased from $A311 million in 2015 to $A350 million in 2030 (13% increase); and lost annual taxation revenue increased from $A102 million in 2015 to $A166 million in 2030 (63% increase). A loss of $A2.1 billion in GDP was projected for 2015, increasing to $A2.9 billion in 2030 attributable to diabetes through its impact on PLYs. Individuals incur significant costs of diabetes through lost PLYs and lost income in addition to disease burden through human suffering and healthcare costs. The government incurs extra welfare payments, lost taxation revenue and lost GDP, along with direct healthcare costs. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

The personal and national costs of early retirement because of spinal disorders: impacts on income, taxes, and government support payments.

PubMed

Schofield, Deborah J; Shrestha, Rupendra N; Percival, Richard; Passey, Megan E; Callander, Emily J; Kelly, Simon J

2012-12-01

Spinal disorders can reduce an individual's ability to participate in the labor force, and this can lead to considerable impacts on both the individual and the state. This study was aimed to quantify the personal cost of lost income and the cost to the state from lost income taxation, increased benefits payments, and lost gross domestic product (GDP) as a result of early retirement because of spinal disorders in Australians aged 45 to 64 years in 2009. This was done using cross-sectional analysis of the base population of Health&WealthMOD, a microsimulation model built on data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics' Survey of Disability, Ageing and Carers, and STINMOD, an income and savings microsimulation model. Linear regression models were used to examine the relationship between spinal disorders, labor force participation, income, taxation, and government support payments. It was found that individuals aged 45 to 64 years who have retired early because of spinal disorders have significantly lower income (79% less; 95% confidence interval [CI], -84.7, -71.1; p<.0001), pay significantly less taxation (100% less; 95% CI, -100.0, 99.9; p<.0001), and receive significantly more in government support payments (21,000% more; 95% CI, 12,767.0, 35,336.4; p<.0001) than those employed full time with no health condition. Individuals who have retired early because of spinal disorders have a median value of total weekly income of only AU$310, whereas those who are employed full time are likely to receive four times this. This has a large national aggregate impact, with AU$4.8 billion lost in annual individual earnings, AU$622 million in additional welfare payments, AU$497 million lost in taxation revenue for governments, and AU$2.9 billion in lost GDP: all attributable to spinal disorders through their impact on labor force participation. Although the individual has to bear the economic costs of lost income in addition to the burden of the condition itself, the state experiences the impacts of loss of productivity from reduced workforce participation, lost income taxation revenue, and increasing government support payments. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Undiagnosed and Uncontrolled Chronic Conditions in China: Could Social Health Insurance Consolidation Make a Change?

PubMed

Feng, Xing Lin

2017-02-01

Policy makers in China are considering consolidating the country's fragmented health insurance programs. This system consists of three components. The Urban Employee Basic Medical Insurance (UEBMI) covers formal employees, the New Cooperative Medical Scheme (NCMS) covers rural residents, and the Urban Resident Basic Medical Insurance (URBMI) covers urban residents. Consolidation could, in theory, create a more efficient health system that is better able to address noncommunicable diseases. Using national survey data during 2011 to 2013, I found that 44% to 76% cases of hypertension, diabetes, and dyslipidemia went undiagnosed among Chinese adults aged 45 and older. I found that the UEBMI enrollees had a greater number of health checks and 10% higher rates of diagnosis. Assuming that this level of efficiency would be possible under an integrated system, I conducted microsimulation analyses to project future benefits. Such consolidation could result in 46.2 million new diagnoses, and 30.0 million of these cases would be controlled.

Three large-scale changes to the Medicare program could curb its costs but also reduce enrollment.

PubMed

Eibner, Christine; Goldman, Dana P; Sullivan, Jeffrey; Garber, Alan M

2013-05-01

With Medicare spending projected to increase to 24 percent of all federal spending and to equal 6 percent of the gross domestic product by 2037, policy makers are again considering ways to curb the program's spending growth. We used a microsimulation approach to estimate three scenarios: imposing a means-tested premium for Part A hospital insurance, introducing a premium support credit to purchase health insurance, and increasing the eligibility age to sixty-seven. We found that the scenarios would lead to reductions in cumulative Medicare spending in 2012-36 of 2.4-24.0 percent. However, the scenarios also would increase out-of-pocket spending for enrollees and, in some cases, cause millions of seniors not to enroll in the program and to be left without coverage. To achieve substantial cost savings without causing substantial lack of coverage among seniors, policy makers should consider benefit changes in combination with other options, such as some of those now being contemplated by the Obama administration and Congress.

Understanding ageing in older Australians: The contribution of the Dynamic Analyses to Optimise Ageing (DYNOPTA) project to the evidenced base and policy

PubMed Central

Anstey, Kaarin J; Bielak, Allison AM; Birrell, Carole L; Browning, Colette J; Burns, Richard A; Byles, Julie; Kiley, Kim M; Nepal, Binod; Ross, Lesley A; Steel, David; Windsor, Timothy D

2014-01-01

Aim To describe the Dynamic Analyses to Optimise Ageing (DYNOPTA) project and illustrate its contributions to understanding ageing through innovative methodology, and investigations on outcomes based on the project themes. DYNOPTA provides a platform and technical expertise that may be used to combine other national and international datasets. Method The DYNOPTA project has pooled and harmonized data from nine Australian longitudinal studies to create the largest available longitudinal dataset (N=50652) on ageing in Australia. Results A range of findings have resulted from the study to date, including methodological advances, prevalence rates of disease and disability, and mapping trajectories of ageing with and without increasing morbidity. DYNOPTA also forms the basis of a microsimulation model that will provide projections of future costs of disease and disability for the baby boomer cohort. Conclusion DYNOPTA contributes significantly to the Australian evidence-base on ageing to inform key social and health policy domains. PMID:22032767

Associations of Educational Attainment With Disability and Life Expectancy by Race and Gender in the United States.

PubMed

Laditka, James N; Laditka, Sarah B

2016-12-01

This study provides estimates of associations of education with life expectancy and the percentage of remaining life from age 40 with disability. We used the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, 1999-2011 ( n = 8,763; 94,246 person-years), measuring five education levels. We estimated probabilities of disability and death with multinomial logistic Markov models, and used microsimulations beginning at age 40, controlling for gender, race/ethnicity, age, and disability. With college education, African American and White women, and African American and White men, respectively, lived 46.6%, 44.0%, 55.2%, and 50.4% more years from age 40 than those educated at less than the ninth grade ( p < .001). Corresponding percentages of life with disability were lower with high education, by 37.9%, 38.9%, 41.0%, and 39.9% ( p < .001). There was little evidence of outcome differences between African Americans and Whites within education levels. Low education is associated with shorter lives with much more disability.

Economic evaluation of influenza pandemic mitigation strategies in the us using a stochastic microsimulation transmission model

PubMed Central

Sander, Beate; Nizam, Azhar; Garrison, Louis P.; Postma, Maarten J.; Halloran, M. Elizabeth; Longini, Ira M.

2013-01-01

Objectives To project the potential economic impact of pandemic influenza mitigation strategies from a societal perspective in the United States. Methods We use a stochastic agent-based model to simulate pandemic influenza in the community. We compare 17 strategies: targeted antiviral prophylaxis (TAP) alone and in combination with school closure as well as prevaccination. Results In the absence of intervention, we predict a 50% attack rate with an economic impact of $187 per capita as loss to society. Full TAP is the most effective single strategy, reducing number of cases by 54% at the lowest cost to society ($127 per capita). Prevaccination reduces number of cases by 48% and is the second least costly alternative ($140 per capita). Adding school closure to full TAP or prevaccination further improves health outcomes, but increases total cost to society by approximately $2700 per capita. Conclusion Full targeted antiviral prophylaxis is an effective and cost-saving measure for mitigating pandemic influenza. PMID:18671770

A comparison of small-area hospitalisation rates, estimated morbidity and hospital access.

PubMed

Shulman, H; Birkin, M; Clarke, G P

2015-11-01

Published data on hospitalisation rates tend to reveal marked spatial variations within a city or region. Such variations may simply reflect corresponding variations in need at the small-area level. However, they might also be a consequence of poorer accessibility to medical facilities for certain communities within the region. To help answer this question it is important to compare these variable hospitalisation rates with small-area estimates of need. This paper first maps hospitalisation rates at the small-area level across the region of Yorkshire in the UK to show the spatial variations present. Then the Health Survey of England is used to explore the characteristics of persons with heart disease, using chi-square and logistic regression analysis. Using the most significant variables from this analysis the authors build a spatial microsimulation model of morbidity for heart disease for the Yorkshire region. We then compare these estimates of need with the patterns of hospitalisation rates seen across the region. Crown Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Reductions in mortality among Medicare beneficiaries following the implementation of Medicare Part D.

PubMed

Semilla, April P; Chen, Fang; Dall, Timothy M

2015-07-01

Medicare Part D is a prescription drug program that provides seniors and disabled individuals enrolled in Medicare with outpatient drug coverage benefits. Part D has been shown to increase access to medicines and improve medication adherence; however, the effect of Part D on health outcomes has not yet been extensively studied. In this study, we used a published and validated Markov-based microsimulation model to quantify the relationships among medication use, disease incidence and severity, and mortality. Based on the simulation results, we estimate that since the implementation of Part D in 2006, nearly 200,000 Medicare beneficiaries have lived at least 1 year longer. Reductions in mortality have occurred because of fewer deaths associated with medication-sensitive conditions such as diabetes, congestive heart failure, stroke, and myocardial infarction. Improved access to medication through Medicare Part D helps patients improve blood pressure, cholesterol, and blood glucose levels, which in turn can prevent or delay the onset of disease and the incidence of adverse health events, thus reducing mortality.

A Continuous Labour Supply Model in Microsimulation: A Life-Cycle Modelling Approach with Heterogeneity and Uncertainty Extension

PubMed Central

Li, Jinjing; Sologon, Denisa Maria

2014-01-01

This paper advances a structural inter-temporal model of labour supply that is able to simulate the dynamics of labour supply in a continuous setting and addresses two main drawbacks of most existing models. The first limitation is the inability to incorporate individual heterogeneity as every agent is sharing the same parameters of the utility function. The second one is the strong assumption that individuals make decisions in a world of perfect certainty. Essentially, this paper offers an extension of marginal-utility-of-wealth-constant labour supply functions known as “Frisch functions” under certainty and uncertainty with homogenous and heterogeneous preferences. The lifetime models based on the fixed effect vector decomposition yield the most stable simulation results, under both certain and uncertain future wage assumptions. Due to its improved accuracy and stability, this lifetime labour supply model is particularly suitable for enhancing the performance of the life cycle simulation models, thus providing a better reference for policymaking. PMID:25391021

The Effect of Eliminating the Affordable Care Act's Tax Credits in Federally Facilitated Marketplaces.

PubMed

Saltzman, Evan; Eibner, Christine

2015-07-15

In this study, RAND Corporation researchers assess the expected change in enrollment and premiums in the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA)-compliant individual market in federally facilitated marketplace (FFM) states if the U.S. Supreme Court decides to eliminate subsidies in FFM states. The analysis used the Comprehensive Assessment of Reform Efforts (COMPARE) microsimulation model, an economic model developed by RAND researchers, to assess the impact of proposed health reforms. The authors found that enrollment in the ACA-compliant individual market, including plans sold in the marketplaces and those sold outside of the marketplaces that comply with ACA regulations, would decline by 9.6 million, or 70 percent, in FFM states if subsidies were eliminated. They also found that unsubsidized premiums in the ACA-compliant individual market would increase 47 percent in FFM states. This corresponds to a $1,610 annual increase for a 40-year-old nonsmoker purchasing a silver plan.

Educational and sex differentials in life expectancies and disability-free life expectancies in São Paulo, Brazil, and urban areas in Mexico.

PubMed

Beltrán-Sánchez, Hiram; Andrade, Flávia Cristina Drumond

2013-08-01

To estimate transition probabilities between disability states, total life expectancy, and the latter's decomposition into years spent disabled and disability-free by age, sex, and education among older adults in São Paulo, Brazil, and urban areas in Mexico. Applied a micro-simulation method (Interpolative Markov Chains) using longitudinal data. We found large between-country educational differences in incidence of and recovery from disability with higher rates in Mexico than in São Paulo, but no differences in mortality. Older adults in Mexico spent longer time being disability-free than in São Paulo for both levels of education. Males and females in São Paulo spent a larger fraction of their remaining life disabled at every age than their counterparts in urban areas in Mexico. There were educational differences in the prevalence of disability in São Paulo and urban areas in Mexico, and significant educational differences in disability incidence and recovery across sites.

The global diabetes model: user friendly version 3.0.

PubMed

Brown, J B; Russell, A; Chan, W; Pedula, K; Aickin, M

2000-11-01

The attributes of Release 3.0 of the user friendly version (UFV) of the global diabetes model (GDM) are described and documented in detail. The GDM is a continuous, stochastic microsimulation model of type 2 diabetes. Suitable for predicting the medical futures of both individuals with diabetes and representative diabetic populations, the GDM predicts medical events (complications of diabetes), survival, utilities, and medical care costs. Incidence rate functions for microvascular and macrovascular complications are based on a combination of published studies and analyses of data describing diabetic members of Kaiser Permanente Northwest Region, a non-profit group-model health maintenance organization. Active risk factors include average blood glucose (HbAlc), systolic blood pressure (SBP), low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL), high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL), triglycerides, smoking status, and use of prophylactic aspirin. Events predicted include diabetic eye disease, diabetic nephropathy, peripheral neuropathy amputation, myocardial infarction, stroke, peripheral artery disease, congestive heart failure, coronary artery surgery, coronary angioplasty, and death.

Future Health and Economic Impact of Comprehensive Tobacco Control in DoD: A Microsimulation Approach.

PubMed

Yang, Wenya; Zou, Quan; Tan, Eleonora; Watkins, Lachlan; Beronja, Kaleigh; Hogan, Paul F; Elenberg, Kimberly

2018-01-01

Tobacco use is a major concern to the Military Health System of the Department of Defense (DoD). The 2011 DoD Health Related Behavior Survey reported that 24.5% of active duty personnel are current smokers, which is higher than the national estimate of 20.6% for the civilian population. Overall, it is estimated that tobacco use costs the DoD $1.6 billion a year through related medical care, increased hospitalization, and lost days of work, among others. This study evaluated future health outcomes of Tricare Prime beneficiaries aged 18-64 yr (N = 3.2 million, including active duty and retired military members and their dependents) and the potential economic impact of initiatives that DoD may take to further its effort to transform the military into a tobacco-free environment. Our analysis simulated the future smoking status, risk of developing 25 smoking-related diseases, and associated medical costs for each individual using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo microsimulation model. Data sources included Tricare administrative data, national data such as Centers for Disease Control and Prevention mortality data and National Cancer Institute's cancer registry data, as well as relative risks of diseases obtained from a literature review. We found that the prevalence of active smoking among the Tricare Prime population will decrease from about 24% in 2015 to 18% in 2020 under a status quo scenario. However, if a comprehensive tobacco control initiative that includes a 5% price increase, a tighter clean air policy, and an intensified media campaign were to be implemented between 2016 and 2020, the prevalence of smoking could further decrease to 16%. The near 2 percentage points reduction in smoking prevalence represents an additional 81,240 quitters and translates to a total lifetime medical cost savings (in 2016 present value) of $968 million, with 39% ($382 million) attributable to Tricare savings. A comprehensive tobacco control policy within the DoD could significantly decrease the prevalence and lifetime medical cost of tobacco use. If the smoking prevalence among Prime beneficiaries could reach the Healthy People 2020 goal of 12%, through additional measures, the lifetime savings could mount to $2.08 billion. To achieve future savings, DoD needs to pay close attention to program design and implementation issues of any additional tobacco control initiatives. © Association of Military Surgeons of the United States 2017. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Cost Effectiveness of Screening Patients With Gastroesophageal Reflux Disease for Barrett's Esophagus With a Minimally Invasive Cell Sampling Device.

PubMed

Heberle, Curtis R; Omidvari, Amir-Houshang; Ali, Ayman; Kroep, Sonja; Kong, Chung Yin; Inadomi, John M; Rubenstein, Joel H; Tramontano, Angela C; Dowling, Emily C; Hazelton, William D; Luebeck, E Georg; Lansdorp-Vogelaar, Iris; Hur, Chin

2017-09-01

It is important to identify patients with Barrett's esophagus (BE), the precursor to esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC). Patients with BE usually are identified by endoscopy, which is expensive. The Cytosponge, which collects tissue from the esophagus noninvasively, could be a cost-effective tool for screening individuals with gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) who are at increased risk for BE. We developed a model to analyze the cost effectiveness of using the Cytosponge in first-line screening of patients with GERD for BE with endoscopic confirmation, compared with endoscopy screening only. We incorporated data from a large clinical trial of Cytosponge performance into 2 validated microsimulation models of EAC progression (the esophageal adenocarcinoma model from Massachusetts General Hospital and the microsimulation screening analysis model from Erasmus University Medical Center). The models were calibrated for US Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results data on EAC incidence and mortality. In each model, we simulated the effect of a 1-time screen for BE in male patients with GERD, 60 years of age, using endoscopy alone or Cytosponge collection of tissue, and analysis for the level of trefoil factor 3 with endoscopic confirmation of positive results. For each strategy we recorded the number of cases of EAC that developed, the number of EAC cases detected with screening by Cytosponge only or by subsequent targeted surveillance, and the number of endoscopies needed. In addition, we recorded the cumulative costs (including indirect costs) incurred and quality-adjusted years of life lived within each strategy, discounted at a rate of 3% per year, and computed incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) among the 3 strategies. According to the models, screening patients with GERD by Cytosponge with follow-up confirmation of positive results by endoscopy would reduce the cost of screening by 27% to 29% compared with screening by endoscopy, but led to 1.8 to 5.5 (per 1000 patients) fewer quality-adjusted life years. The ICERs for Cytosponge screening compared with no screening ranged from $26,358 to $33,307. For screening patients by endoscopy compared with Cytosponge the ICERs ranged from $107,583 to $330,361. These results were sensitive to Cytosponge cost within a plausible range of values. In a comparative modeling analysis of screening strategies for BE in patients with GERD, we found Cytosponge screening with endoscopic confirmation to be a cost-effective strategy. The greatest benefit was achieved by endoscopic screening, but with an unfavorable cost margin. Copyright © 2017 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Cost-effectiveness of quantitative pretest probability intended to reduce unnecessary medical radiation exposure in emergency department patients with chest pain and dyspnea.

PubMed

Troyer, Jennifer L; Jones, Alan E; Shapiro, Nathan I; Mitchell, Alice M; Hewer, Ian; Kline, Jeffrey A

2015-05-01

Quantitative pretest probability (qPTP) incorporated into a decision support tool with advice can reduce unnecessary diagnostic testing among patients with symptoms suggestive of acute coronary syndrome (ACS) and pulmonary embolism (PE), reducing 30-day costs without an increase in 90-day adverse outcomes. This study estimates long-term (beyond 90-day) costs and outcomes associated with qPTP. The authors hypothesized that qPTP reduces lifetime costs and improves outcomes in low-risk patients with symptoms suggestive of ACS and PE. This was a cost-effectiveness analysis of a multicenter, randomized controlled trial of adult emergency patients with dyspnea and chest pain, in which a clinician encountering a low-risk patient with symptoms suggestive of ACS or PE conducted either the intervention (qPTP for ACS and PE with advice) or the sham (no qPTP and no advice). Effect of the intervention over a patient's lifetime was assessed using a Markov microsimulation model. Short-term costs and outcomes were from the trial; long-term outcomes and costs were from the literature. Outcomes included lifetime transition to PE, ACS, and intracranial hemorrhage (ICH); mortality from cancer, ICH, PE, ACS, renal failure, and ischemic stroke; quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs); and total medical costs compared between simulated intervention and sham groups. Markov microsimulation for a 40-year-old patient receiving qPTP found lifetime cost savings of $497 for women and $528 for men, associated with small gains in QALYs (2 and 6 days, respectively) and lower rates of cancer mortality in both sexes, but a reduction in ICH only in males. Sensitivity analysis for patients aged 60 years predicted that qPTP would continue to save costs and also reduce mortality from both ICH and cancer. Use of qPTP significantly reduced the lifetime probability of PE diagnosis, with lower probability of death from PE in both sexes aged 40 to 60 years. However, use of qPTP reduced the rate of ACS diagnosis and death from ACS at age 40, but increased the death rate from ACS at age 60 for both sexes. Widespread use of a combined qPTP for both ACS and PE has the potential to decrease costs by reducing diagnostic testing, while improving most long-term outcomes in emergency patients with chest pain and dyspnea. © 2015 by the Society for Academic Emergency Medicine.

Do healthcare tax credits help poor-health individuals on low incomes?

PubMed

Di Novi, Cinzia; Marenzi, Anna; Rizzi, Dino

2018-03-01

In several countries, personal income tax permits tax credits for out-of-pocket healthcare expenditure. Tax credits benefit taxpayers at all income levels by reducing their net tax liability and modify the price of out-of-pocket expenditure. To the extent that consumer demand is price elastic, they may influence the amount of eligible healthcare expenditure for which taxpayers may claim a credit. These effects influence, in turn, income distributions and taxpayers' health status and therefore income-related inequality in health. Redistributive consequences of tax credits have been widely investigated. However, little is known about the ability of tax credits to alleviate health inequality. In this paper, we study the potential effects that tax credits for health expenses may have on income-related inequality in health status with reference to the Italian institutional setting. The analysis is performed using a tax-benefit microsimulation model that reproduces the personal income tax and incorporates taxpayers' behavioral responses to changes in tax credit rate. Our results suggest that the current healthcare tax credit design tends to favor the richest part of the population.

Trade-off between jerk and time headway as an indicator of driving style

PubMed Central

Pekkanen, Jami; Lappi, Otto; Kosonen, Iisakki; Luttinen, Tapio; Summala, Heikki

2017-01-01

Variation in longitudinal control in driving has been discussed in both traffic psychology and transportation engineering. Traffic psychologists have concerned themselves with “driving style”, a habitual form of behavior marked by it’s stability, and its basis in psychological traits. Those working in traffic microsimulation have searched for quantitative ways to represent different driver-car systems in car following models. There has been unfortunately little overlap or theoretical consistency between these literatures. Here, we investigated relationships between directly observable measures (time headway, acceleration and jerk) in a simulated driving task where the driving context, vehicle and environment were controlled. We found individual differences in the way a trade-off was made between close but jerky vs. far and smooth following behavior. We call these “intensive” and “calm” driving, and suggest this trade-off can serve as an indicator of a possible latent factor underlying driving style. We posit that pursuing such latent factors for driving style may have implications for modelling driver heterogeneity across various domains in traffic simulation. PMID:29040291

Cost Effectiveness of the Earned Income Tax Credit as a Health Policy Investment.

PubMed

Muennig, Peter A; Mohit, Babak; Wu, Jinjing; Jia, Haomiao; Rosen, Zohn

2016-12-01

Lower-income Americans are suffering from declines in income, health, and longevity over time. Income and employment policies have been proposed as a potential non-medical solution to this problem. An interrupted time series analysis of state-level incremental supplements to the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) program was performed using data from 1993 to 2010 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System surveys and state-level life expectancy. The cost effectiveness of state EITC supplements was estimated using a microsimulation model, which was run in 2015. Supplemental EITC programs increased health-related quality of life and longevity among the poor. The program costs about $7,786/quality-adjusted life-year gained (95% CI=$4,100, $13,400) for the average recipient. This ratio increases with larger family sizes, costing roughly $14,261 (95% CI=$8,735, $19,716) for a family of three. State supplements to EITC appear to be highly cost effective, but randomized trials are needed to confirm these findings. Copyright © 2016 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A social science data-fusion tool and the Data Management through e-Social Science (DAMES) infrastructure.

PubMed

Warner, Guy C; Blum, Jesse M; Jones, Simon B; Lambert, Paul S; Turner, Kenneth J; Tan, Larry; Dawson, Alison S F; Bell, David N F

2010-08-28

The last two decades have seen substantially increased potential for quantitative social science research. This has been made possible by the significant expansion of publicly available social science datasets, the development of new analytical methodologies, such as microsimulation, and increases in computing power. These rich resources do, however, bring with them substantial challenges associated with organizing and using data. These processes are often referred to as 'data management'. The Data Management through e-Social Science (DAMES) project is working to support activities of data management for social science research. This paper describes the DAMES infrastructure, focusing on the data-fusion process that is central to the project approach. It covers: the background and requirements for provision of resources by DAMES; the use of grid technologies to provide easy-to-use tools and user front-ends for several common social science data-management tasks such as data fusion; the approach taken to solve problems related to data resources and metadata relevant to social science applications; and the implementation of the architecture that has been designed to achieve this infrastructure.

Micro-simulation of vehicle conflicts involving right-turn vehicles at signalized intersections based on cellular automata.

PubMed

Chai, C; Wong, Y D

2014-02-01

At intersection, vehicles coming from different directions conflict with each other. Improper geometric design and signal settings at signalized intersection will increase occurrence of conflicts between road users and results in a reduction of the safety level. This study established a cellular automata (CA) model to simulate vehicular interactions involving right-turn vehicles (as similar to left-turn vehicles in US). Through various simulation scenarios for four case cross-intersections, the relationships between conflict occurrences involving right-turn vehicles with traffic volume and right-turn movement control strategies are analyzed. Impacts of traffic volume, permissive right-turn compared to red-amber-green (RAG) arrow, shared straight-through and right-turn lane as well as signal setting are estimated from simulation results. The simulation model is found to be able to provide reasonable assessment of conflicts through comparison of existed simulation approach and observed accidents. Through the proposed approach, prediction models for occurrences and severity of vehicle conflicts can be developed for various geometric layouts and traffic control strategies. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Autonomous vehicles are cost-effective when used as taxis.

PubMed

Freedman, Isaac G; Kim, Ellen; Muennig, Peter A

2018-06-04

Autonomous vehicles (AVs) will radically re-shape the health and well-being of people in the United States in good ways and bad. We set out to estimate a reasonable time-to-adoption using cost-effectivenessmodels to estimate the point at which AVs become reasonably safe and affordable for widespread adoption. We used Waymo data (previously, Google Self-Driving Car Project) and a microsimulation model to explore projected costs and safety issues today and five years from today to get a sense of the speed of consumer adoption were AVs brought to the market. The adoption of AVs for private use was associated with an ICER of 1,396,110/QALY gained today, a figure that would decline to 173,890/QALY gained 5-years in the future. However, AV taxis are both less expensive and potentially already safer than human-piloted taxis. While AVs are not unlikely to be used a family vehicles any time soon, it would make economic sense to adopt them as taxis today. Legislation enhancing the benefits while mitigating the potential harmful health impacts of AV taxis is needed with some urgency.

Long-term care over an uncertain future: what can current retirees expect?

PubMed

Kemper, Peter; Komisar, Harriet L; Alecxih, Lisa

The leading edge of the baby boom generation is nearing retirement and facing uncertainty about its need for long-term care (LTC). Using a microsimulation model, this analysis projected that people currently turning age 65 will need LTC for three years on average. An important share of needed care will be covered by public programs and some private insurance, but much of the care will be an uninsured private responsibility of individuals and their families--a responsibility that will be distributed unequally. While over a third of those now turning 65 are projected to never receive family care, three out of 10 will rely on family care for more than two years. Similarly, half of people turning 65 will have no private out-of-pocket expenditures for LTC, while more than one in 20 are projected to spend $100,000 or more of their own money (in present discounted value). Policy debate that focuses only on income security and acute care--and the corresponding Social Security and Medicare programs--misses the third, largely private, risk that retirees face: that of needing LTC.

Premature retirement due to ill health and income poverty: a cross-sectional study of older workers.

PubMed

Schofield, Deborah J; Callander, Emily J; Shrestha, Rupendra N; Percival, Richard; Kelly, Simon J; Passey, Megan E

2013-05-28

To assess the income-poverty status of Australians who were aged between 45 and 64 years and were out of the labour force due to ill health. A cross-sectional study using a microsimulation model of the 2009 Australian population (Health&WealthMOD). 2009 Australian population. 9198 people aged between 45 and 64 years surveyed for the 2003 Survey of Disability, Ageing and Carers. 50% of the median equivalised income-unit-income poverty line. It was found that individuals who had retired early due to other reasons were significantly less likely to be in income poverty than those retired due to ill health (OR 0.43 95% CI 0.33 to 0.51), and there was no significant difference in the likelihood of being in income poverty between these individuals and those unemployed. Being in the same family as someone who is retired due to illness also significantly increases an individual's chance of being in income poverty. It can be seen that being retired due to illness impacts both the individual and their family.

Educational and Sex Differentials in Life Expectancies and Disability-Free Life Expectancies in São Paulo, Brazil, and Urban Areas in Mexico

PubMed Central

Andrade, Flávia Cristina Drumond

2013-01-01

Objectives To estimate transition probabilities between disability states, total life expectancy, and the latter’s decomposition into years spent disabled and disability-free by age, sex and education among older adults in São Paulo, Brazil, and urban areas in Mexico. Methods Applied a micro-simulation method (Interpolative Markov Chains) using longitudinal data. Results We found large between-country educational differences in incidence of and recovery from disability with higher rates in Mexico than in São Paulo, but no differences in mortality. Older adults in Mexico spent longer time being disability-free than in São Paulo for both levels of education. Males and females in São Paulo spent a larger fraction of their remaining life disabled at every age than their counterparts in urban areas in Mexico. Discussion There were educational differences in the prevalence of disability in São Paulo and urban areas in Mexico, and significant educational differences in disability incidence and recovery across sites. PMID:23781016

Extending Marketplace Tax Credits Would Make Coverage More Affordable for Middle-Income Adults.

PubMed

Liu, Jodi; Eiber, Christine

2017-07-01

ISSUE: Affordability of health coverage is a growing challenge for Americans facing rising premiums, deductibles, and copayments. The Affordable Care Act's tax credits make marketplace insurance more affordable for eligible lower-income individuals. However, individuals lose tax credits when their income exceeds 400 percent of the federal poverty level, creating a steep cliff. GOALS: To analyze the effects of extending eligibility for tax credits to individuals with incomes above 400 percent of the federal poverty level. METHODS: We used RAND's COMPARE microsimulation model to examine changes in insurance coverage and health care spending. KEY FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS: Extending tax-credit eligibility increases insurance enrollment by 1.2 million, at a total federal cost of $6.0 billion. Those who would benefit from the tax-credit extension are mostly middle-income adults ages 50 to 64. These new enrollees would be healthier than current enrollees their age, which would improve the risk pool and lower premiums. Eliminating the cliff at 400 percent of the federal poverty level is one policy option that may be considered to increase affordability of insurance.

Ultra-Scale Computing for Emergency Evacuation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bhaduri, Budhendra L; Nutaro, James J; Liu, Cheng

2010-01-01

Emergency evacuations are carried out in anticipation of a disaster such as hurricane landfall or flooding, and in response to a disaster that strikes without a warning. Existing emergency evacuation modeling and simulation tools are primarily designed for evacuation planning and are of limited value in operational support for real time evacuation management. In order to align with desktop computing, these models reduce the data and computational complexities through simple approximations and representations of real network conditions and traffic behaviors, which rarely represent real-world scenarios. With the emergence of high resolution physiographic, demographic, and socioeconomic data and supercomputing platforms, itmore » is possible to develop micro-simulation based emergency evacuation models that can foster development of novel algorithms for human behavior and traffic assignments, and can simulate evacuation of millions of people over a large geographic area. However, such advances in evacuation modeling and simulations demand computational capacity beyond the desktop scales and can be supported by high performance computing platforms. This paper explores the motivation and feasibility of ultra-scale computing for increasing the speed of high resolution emergency evacuation simulations.« less

High Levels Of Capitation Payments Needed To Shift Primary Care Toward Proactive Team And Nonvisit Care.

PubMed

Basu, Sanjay; Phillips, Russell S; Song, Zirui; Bitton, Asaf; Landon, Bruce E

2017-09-01

Capitated payments in the form of fixed monthly payments to cover all of the costs associated with delivering primary care could encourage primary care practices to transform the way they deliver care. Using a microsimulation model incorporating data from 969 US practices, we sought to understand whether shifting to team- and non-visit-based care is financially sustainable for practices under traditional fee-for-service, capitated payment, or a mix of the two. Practice revenues and costs were computed for fee-for-service payments and a range of capitated payments, before and after the substitution of team- and non-visit-based services for low-complexity in-person physician visits. The substitution produced financial losses for simulated practices under fee-for-service payment of $42,398 per full-time-equivalent physician per year; however, substitution produced financial gains under capitated payment in 95 percent of cases, if more than 63 percent of annual payments were capitated. Shifting to capitated payment might create an incentive for practices to increase their delivery of team- and non-visit-based primary care, if capitated payment levels were sufficiently high. Project HOPE—The People-to-People Health Foundation, Inc.

Desktop microsimulation: a tool to improve efficiency in the medical office practice.

PubMed

Montgomery, James B; Linville, Beth A; Slonim, Anthony D

2013-01-01

Because the economic crisis in the United States continues to have an impact on healthcare organizations, industry leaders must optimize their decision making. Discrete-event computer simulation is a quality tool with a demonstrated track record of improving the precision of analysis for process redesign. However, the use of simulation to consolidate practices and design efficiencies into an unfinished medical office building was a unique task. A discrete-event computer simulation package was used to model the operations and forecast future results for four orthopedic surgery practices. The scenarios were created to allow an evaluation of the impact of process change on the output variables of exam room utilization, patient queue size, and staff utilization. The model helped with decisions regarding space allocation and efficient exam room use by demonstrating the impact of process changes in patient queues at check-in/out, x-ray, and cast room locations when compared to the status quo model. The analysis impacted decisions on facility layout, patient flow, and staff functions in this newly consolidated practice. Simulation was found to be a useful tool for process redesign and decision making even prior to building occupancy. © 2011 National Association for Healthcare Quality.

A PC-based high temperature gas reactor simulator for Indonesian conceptual HTR reactor basic training

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Syarip; Po, L. C. C.

2018-05-01

In planning for nuclear power plant construction in Indonesia, helium cooled high temperature reactor (HTR) is favorable for not relying upon water supply that might be interrupted by earthquake. In order to train its personnel, BATAN has cooperated with Micro-Simulation Technology of USA to develop a 200 MWt PC-based simulation model PCTRAN/HTR. It operates in Win10 environment with graphic user interface (GUI). Normal operation of startup, power maneuvering, shutdown and accidents including pipe breaks and complete loss of AC power have been conducted. A sample case of safety analysis simulation to demonstrate the inherent safety features of HTR was done for helium pipe break malfunction scenario. The analysis was done for the variation of primary coolant pipe break i.e. from 0,1% - 0,5 % and 1% - 10 % helium gas leakages, while the reactor was operated at the maximum constant power of 10 MWt. The result shows that the highest temperature of HTR fuel centerline and coolant were 1150 °C and 1296 °C respectively. With 10 kg/s of helium flow in the reactor core, the thermal power will back to the startup position after 1287 s of helium pipe break malfunction.

Computational modelling of the impact of AIDS on business.

PubMed

Matthews, Alan P

2007-07-01

An overview of computational modelling of the impact of AIDS on business in South Africa, with a detailed description of the AIDS Projection Model (APM) for companies, developed by the author, and suggestions for further work. Computational modelling of the impact of AIDS on business in South Africa requires modelling of the epidemic as a whole, and of its impact on a company. This paper gives an overview of epidemiological modelling, with an introduction to the Actuarial Society of South Africa (ASSA) model, the most widely used such model for South Africa. The APM produces projections of HIV prevalence, new infections, and AIDS mortality on a company, based on the anonymous HIV testing of company employees, and projections from the ASSA model. A smoothed statistical model of the prevalence test data is computed, and then the ASSA model projection for each category of employees is adjusted so that it matches the measured prevalence in the year of testing. FURTHER WORK: Further techniques that could be developed are microsimulation (representing individuals in the computer), scenario planning for testing strategies, and models for the business environment, such as models of entire sectors, and mapping of HIV prevalence in time and space, based on workplace and community data.

Simulations Show Diagnostic Testing For Malaria In Young African Children Can Be Cost-Saving Or Cost-Effective

PubMed Central

Phillips, Victoria; Njau, Joseph; Li, Shang; Kachur, Patrick

2015-01-01

Malaria imposes a substantial global disease burden. It disproportionately affects sub-Saharan Africans, particularly young children. In an effort to improve disease management, the World Health Organization (WHO) recommended in 2010 that countries test children younger than age five who present with suspected malaria fever to confirm the diagnosis instead of treating them presumptively with antimalarial drugs. Costs and concerns about the overall health impact of such diagnostic testing for malaria in children remain barriers to full implementation. Using data from national Malaria Indicator Surveys, we estimated two-stage microsimulation models for Angola, Tanzania, and Uganda to assess the policy’s cost-effectiveness. We found that diagnostic testing for malaria in children younger than five is cost-saving in Angola. In Tanzania and Uganda the cost per life-year gained is $5.54 and $94.28, respectively. The costs projected for Tanzania and Uganda are less than the WHO standard of $150 per life-year gained. Our results were robust under varying assumptions about cost, prevalence of malaria, and behavior, and they strongly suggest the pursuit of policies that facilitate full implementation of testing for malaria in children younger than five. PMID:26153315

Generating a Dynamic Synthetic Population – Using an Age-Structured Two-Sex Model for Household Dynamics

PubMed Central

Namazi-Rad, Mohammad-Reza; Mokhtarian, Payam; Perez, Pascal

2014-01-01

Generating a reliable computer-simulated synthetic population is necessary for knowledge processing and decision-making analysis in agent-based systems in order to measure, interpret and describe each target area and the human activity patterns within it. In this paper, both synthetic reconstruction (SR) and combinatorial optimisation (CO) techniques are discussed for generating a reliable synthetic population for a certain geographic region (in Australia) using aggregated- and disaggregated-level information available for such an area. A CO algorithm using the quadratic function of population estimators is presented in this paper in order to generate a synthetic population while considering a two-fold nested structure for the individuals and households within the target areas. The baseline population in this study is generated from the confidentialised unit record files (CURFs) and 2006 Australian census tables. The dynamics of the created population is then projected over five years using a dynamic micro-simulation model for individual- and household-level demographic transitions. This projection is then compared with the 2011 Australian census. A prediction interval is provided for the population estimates obtained by the bootstrapping method, by which the variability structure of a predictor can be replicated in a bootstrap distribution. PMID:24733522

A simple simulation model as a tool to assess alternative health care provider payment reform options in Vietnam.

PubMed

Cashin, Cheryl; Phuong, Nguyen Khanh; Shain, Ryan; Oanh, Tran Thi Mai; Thuy, Nguyen Thi

2015-01-01

Vietnam is currently considering a revision of its 2008 Health Insurance Law, including the regulation of provider payment methods. This study uses a simple spreadsheet-based, micro-simulation model to analyse the potential impacts of different provider payment reform scenarios on resource allocation across health care providers in three provinces in Vietnam, as well as on the total expenditure of the provincial branches of the public health insurance agency (Provincial Social Security [PSS]). The results show that currently more than 50% of PSS spending is concentrated at the provincial level with less than half at the district level. There is also a high degree of financial risk on district hospitals with the current fund-holding arrangement. Results of the simulation model show that several alternative scenarios for provider payment reform could improve the current payment system by reducing the high financial risk currently borne by district hospitals without dramatically shifting the current level and distribution of PSS expenditure. The results of the simulation analysis provided an empirical basis for health policy-makers in Vietnam to assess different provider payment reform options and make decisions about new models to support health system objectives.

Cost-Effectiveness of Capping Freeways for Use as Parks: The New York Cross-Bronx Expressway Case Study

PubMed Central

Zafari, Zafar; Bellanger, Martine; Muennig, Peter Alexander

2018-01-01

Objectives. To examine health benefits and cost-effectiveness of implementing a freeway deck park to increase urban green space. Methods. Using the Cross-Bronx Expressway in New York City as a case study, we explored the cost-effectiveness of implementing deck parks. We built a microsimulation model that included increased exercise, fewer accidents, and less pollution as well as the cost of implementation and maintenance of the park. We estimated both the quality-adjusted life years gained and the societal costs for 2017. Results. Implementation of a deck park over sunken parts of Cross-Bronx Expressway appeared to save both lives and money. Savings were realized for 84% of Monte Carlo simulations. Conclusions. In a rapidly urbanizing world, reclaiming green space through deck parks can bring health benefits alongside economic savings over the long term. Public Health Implications. Policymakers are seeking ways to create cross-sectorial synergies that might improve both quality of urban life and health. However, such projects are very expensive, and there is little information on their return of investment. Our analysis showed that deck parks produce exceptional value when implemented over below-grade sections of road. PMID:29345999

Modeling employer self-insurance decisions after the Affordable Care Act.

PubMed

Cordova, Amado; Eibner, Christine; Vardavas, Raffaele; Broyles, James; Girosi, Federico

2013-04-01

To present a microsimulation model that addresses the methodological challenge of estimating the firm decision to self-insure. The model considers the risk that the firm bears when self-insuring and the opportunity to mitigate that risk by purchasing stop-loss insurance. The model makes use of a structural, utility maximization framework to account for numerous aspects of the firm decision, and a multinomial probit to reproduce the elasticity of the firm's demand for health insurance. Our simulations provide three important conclusions. First, they project significant increases in self-insurance rates among small firms--presumably induced by the desire to avoid ACA's rate-banding and risk adjustment regulations-only if generous stop-loss policies become widely available. Second, they show that this increase would be due to this hypothetical adoption of widespread, generous reinsurance by the market and not by passage of the ACA. Third, even with a substantial increase of self-insurance rates among small firms, they project negligible adverse selection in the exchanges, as indicated by our finding that the increase in exchange premium is less than 0.5% when assuming very generous stop-loss policies after implementation of the ACA. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

Discretely Integrated Condition Event (DICE) Simulation for Pharmacoeconomics.

PubMed

Caro, J Jaime

2016-07-01

Several decision-analytic modeling techniques are in use for pharmacoeconomic analyses. Discretely integrated condition event (DICE) simulation is proposed as a unifying approach that has been deliberately designed to meet the modeling requirements in a straightforward transparent way, without forcing assumptions (e.g., only one transition per cycle) or unnecessary complexity. At the core of DICE are conditions that represent aspects that persist over time. They have levels that can change and many may coexist. Events reflect instantaneous occurrences that may modify some conditions or the timing of other events. The conditions are discretely integrated with events by updating their levels at those times. Profiles of determinant values allow for differences among patients in the predictors of the disease course. Any number of valuations (e.g., utility, cost, willingness-to-pay) of conditions and events can be applied concurrently in a single run. A DICE model is conveniently specified in a series of tables that follow a consistent format and the simulation can be implemented fully in MS Excel, facilitating review and validation. DICE incorporates both state-transition (Markov) models and non-resource-constrained discrete event simulation in a single formulation; it can be executed as a cohort or a microsimulation; and deterministically or stochastically.

The Cost-Effectiveness of School-Based Eating Disorder Screening

PubMed Central

Austin, S. Bryn; LeAnn Noh, H.; Jiang, Yushan; Sonneville, Kendrin R.

2014-01-01

Objectives. We aimed to assess the value of school-based eating disorder (ED) screening for a hypothetical cohort of US public school students. Methods. We used a decision-analytic microsimulation model to model the effectiveness (life-years with ED and quality-adjusted life-years [QALYs]), total direct costs, and cost-effectiveness (cost per QALY gained) of screening relative to current practice. Results. The screening strategy cost $2260 (95% confidence interval [CI] = $1892, $2668) per student and resulted in a per capita gain of 0.25 fewer life-years with ED (95% CI = 0.21, 0.30) and 0.04 QALYs (95% CI = 0.03, 0.05) relative to current practice. The base case cost-effectiveness of the intervention was $9041 per life-year with ED avoided (95% CI = $6617, $12 344) and $56 500 per QALY gained (95% CI = $38 805, $71 250). Conclusions. At willingness-to-pay thresholds of $50 000 and $100 000 per QALY gained, school-based ED screening is 41% and 100% likely to be cost-effective, respectively. The cost-effectiveness of ED screening is comparable to many other accepted pediatric health interventions, including hypertension screening. PMID:25033131

Modeling Employer Self-Insurance Decisions after the Affordable Care Act

PubMed Central

Cordova, Amado; Eibner, Christine; Vardavas, Raffaele; Broyles, James; Girosi, Federico

2013-01-01

Objective To present a microsimulation model that addresses the methodological challenge of estimating the firm decision to self-insure. Methodology The model considers the risk that the firm bears when self-insuring and the opportunity to mitigate that risk by purchasing stop-loss insurance. The model makes use of a structural, utility maximization framework to account for numerous aspects of the firm decision, and a multinomial probit to reproduce the elasticity of the firm's demand for health insurance. Findings and Conclusions Our simulations provide three important conclusions. First, they project significant increases in self-insurance rates among small firms--presumably induced by the desire to avoid ACA's rate-banding and risk adjustment regulations—only if generous stop-loss policies become widely available. Second, they show that this increase would be due to this hypothetical adoption of widespread, generous reinsurance by the market and not by passage of the ACA. Third, even with a substantial increase of self-insurance rates among small firms, they project negligible adverse selection in the exchanges, as indicated by our finding that the increase in exchange premium is less than 0.5% when assuming very generous stop-loss policies after implementation of the ACA. PMID:23346976

Results of a Markov model analysis to assess the cost-effectiveness of statin therapy for the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease in Korea: the Korean Individual-Microsimulation Model for Cardiovascular Health Interventions.

PubMed

Kang, Hye-Young; Ko, Su-Kyoung; Liew, Danny

2009-12-01

Although hyperlipidemia is well recognized as a risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD), there has been no appraisal of the economic impact of statin therapy in Korea. The aim of this model analysis was to determine the cost-effectiveness of statin therapy versus no treatment for the primary prevention of CVD over a lifetime in Korea, from a health care system perspective. We developed the Korean Individual-Microsimulation Model for Cardiovascular Health Interventions (KIMCHI), an epidemiologic and economic Markov model of first-onset CVD in Korea in which all individuals began the simulation in the health state alive without CVD, and moved among the 4 health states (alive without CVD, alive with CVD, dead from CVD, and dead from non-CVD causes) in yearly cycles for any specified time horizon, up to 40 years. KIMCHI was populated with 372 subjects from the 2005 Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHNES) who were aged > or =45 years, did not have a history of myocardial infarction or ischemic stroke, and met current Korean reimbursement criteria for treatment with lipid-lowering medications. The probability of first-onset CVD was estimated for each study participant individually, based on an Asian population-specific risk equation that relied on an individual's sex, age, serum total cholesterol, systolic blood pressure, current smoking status, diabetes mellitus status, and body mass index. Statin treatment was represented by a hybrid of atorvastatin and simvastatin (the most popular statins in Korea), the lipid-modifying effects of which were de rived from a published meta-analysis. Data regarding utilities and costs of CVD (both those covered and not covered by insurance) were derived from published local sources. In the base case, the estimated incremental costutility ratio was 15,134,284 Korean won (KRW) per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained, and the estimated incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was 20,657,829 KRW per life-year gained (LYG) (1200 KRW approximately US $1). Based on a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of 30 million KRW per QALY saved, there was a 93.7% probability that statin therapy would be cost-effective. Given a WTP threshold of 20 million KRW per QALY, there was a 53.8% probability of being cost-effective. The probabilities at WTP thresholds of 30 and 20 million KRW per LYG were 62.4% and 25.8%, respectively. Based on this analysis using data from the 2005 KNHNES and the KIMCHI model, statin therapy is likely to be cost-effective for the primary prevention of CVD among Koreans aged > or =45 years. The probability of being cost-effective was greater at a threshold of 30 million KRW per QALY (93.7%) than at 20 million KRW per QALY (53.8%). Copyright 2009 Excerpta Medica Inc. All rights reserved.

Complementary methods to plan pedestrian evacuation of the French Riviera's beaches in case of tsunami threat: graph- and multi-agent-based modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sahal, A.; Leone, F.; Péroche, M.

2013-07-01

Small amplitude tsunamis have impacted the French Mediterranean shore (French Riviera) in the past centuries. Some caused casualties; others only generated economic losses. While the North Atlantic and Mediterranean tsunami warning system is being tested and is almost operational, no awareness and preparedness measure is being implemented at a local scale. Evacuation is to be considered along the French Riviera, but no plan exists within communities. We show that various approaches can provide local stakeholders with evacuation capacities assessments to develop adapted evacuation plans through the case study of the Cannes-Antibes region. The complementarity between large- and small-scale approaches is demonstrated with the use of macro-simulators (graph-based) and micro-simulators (multi-agent-based) to select shelter points and choose evacuation routes for pedestrians located on the beach. The first one allows automatically selecting shelter points and measuring and mapping their accessibility. The second one shows potential congestion issues during pedestrian evacuations, and provides leads for the improvement of urban environment. Temporal accessibility to shelters is compared to potential local and distal tsunami travel times, showing a 40 min deficit for an adequate crisis management in the first scenario, and a 30 min surplus for the second one.

[Burden of disease attributable to tobacco use in Argentina and potential impact of price increases through taxes].

PubMed

Alcaraz, Andrea; Caporale, Joaquín; Bardach, Ariel; Augustovski, Federico; Pichon-Riviere, Andrés

2016-10-01

Evaluate burden of disease associated with tobacco use in Argentina and estimate health and economic impacts of cigarette price increases through taxes. A microsimulation model was used to quantify smoking-attributable impact on mortality, quality of life, and costs for cardiovascular, cerebrovascular, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; pneumonia; and ten cancers. Modeling was done for effect of different price increase scenarios on tobacco use and their impact on health and economics. In Argentina, 44 851 deaths, 20 620 cancer diagnoses, 14 405 strokes, and 68 100 hospital admissions for cardiovascular disease can be attributed to smoking every year. Every year, 998 881 years of life are lost from premature death and disability. The cost of treating tobacco-attributable health problems amounts to 33 billion Argentine pesos (ARS). Tobacco taxes only cover 67.3% of this expense. If Argentina increases cigarettes prices by 50% in the next 10 years, 25 557 deaths, 42 560 cardiovascular events, and 11 222 cancers could be prevented, with an economic benefit of 122 billion ARS from savings on health costs and from increasing tax revenues (1 US$ = 8.8096 ARS). Smoking-attributable burden of disease and costs to the health system are very high in Argentina. An increase in cigarette taxes could have considerable health and economic benefits.

Cost-effectiveness of alternative strategies for integrating MRI into breast cancer screening for women at high risk.

PubMed

Ahern, C H; Shih, Y-C T; Dong, W; Parmigiani, G; Shen, Y

2014-10-14

Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is recommended for women at high risk for breast cancer. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of alternative screening strategies involving MRI. Using a microsimulation model, we generated life histories under different risk profiles, and assessed the impact of screening on quality-adjusted life-years, and lifetime costs, both discounted at 3%. We compared 12 screening strategies combining annual or biennial MRI with mammography and clinical breast examination (CBE) in intervals of 0.5, 1, or 2 years vs without, and reported incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). Based on an ICER threshold of $100,000/QALY, the most cost-effective strategy for women at 25% lifetime risk was to stagger MRI and mammography plus CBE every year from age 30 to 74, yielding ICER $58,400 (compared to biennial MRI alone). At 50% lifetime risk and with 70% reduction in MRI cost, the recommended strategy was to stagger MRI and mammography plus CBE every 6 months (ICER=$84,400). At 75% lifetime risk, the recommended strategy is biennial MRI combined with mammography plus CBE every 6 months (ICER=$62,800). The high costs of MRI and its lower specificity are limiting factors for annual screening schedule of MRI, except for women at sufficiently high risk.

The projected public health and economic impact of vitamin D fortified dairy products for fracture prevention in France.

PubMed

Hiligsmann, Mickael; Reginster, Jean-Yves

2018-04-01

There is a paucity of research that projects the public health and economic impact of healthcare interventions in the future. In this study, we aimed to estimate the public health and economic impact of vitamin D fortified dairy products for the years 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050 and 2060. We used a previously validated Markov microsimulation model that was designed to assess the public health and economic impact of dairy products for fracture prevention in the French general population aged over 60 years in the year 2015. The expected benefit (in terms of fractures prevented) of the recommended intake of dairy products compared to the absence of appropriate intake is expected to increase by 63% in 2040 and by 85% in 2060. The cost per quality-adjusted life years gained of the appropriate intake of dairy products is expected to decrease from €58,244 in 2015 to €42,616 in 2060. The potential public health and economic benefits of vitamin D fortified dairy products is expected to substantially increase in the future, especially in the population aged over 80 years. Decision makers should be aware of the current and future potential benefits of dairy products to protect bone fractures.

Signal treatments to reduce heavy vehicle crash-risk at metropolitan highway intersections.

PubMed

Archer, Jeffery; Young, William

2009-05-01

Heavy vehicle red-light running at intersections is a common safety problem that has severe consequences. This paper investigates alternative signal treatments that address this issue. A micro-simulation analysis approach was adopted as a precursor to a field trial. The simulation model emulated traffic conditions at a known problem intersection and provided a baseline measure to compare the effects of: an extension of amber time; an extension of green for heavy vehicles detected in the dilemma zone at the onset of amber; an extension of the all-red safety-clearance time based on the detection of vehicles considered likely to run the red light at two detector locations during amber; an extension of the all-red safety-clearance time based on the detection of potential red-light runners during amber or red; and a combination of the second and fourth alternatives. Results suggested safety improvements for all treatments. An extension of amber provided the best safety effect but is known to be prone to behavioural adaptation effects and wastes traffic movement time unnecessarily. A green extension for heavy vehicles detected in the dilemma zone and an all-red extension for potential red-light runners were deemed to provide a sustainable safety improvement and operational efficiency.

Microsimulation of private health insurance and medicaid take-up following the U.S. Supreme court decision upholding the Affordable Care Act.

PubMed

Parente, Stephen T; Feldman, Roger

2013-04-01

To predict take-up of private health insurance and Medicaid following the U.S. Supreme Court decision upholding the Affordable Care Act (ACA). Data came from three large employers and a sampling of premiums from ehealthinsurance.com. We supplemented the employer data with information on state Medicaid eligibility and costs from the Kaiser Family Foundation. National predictions were based on the MEPS Household Component. We estimated a conditional logit model of health plan choice in the large group market. Using the coefficients from the choice model, we predicted take-up in the group and individual health insurance markets. Following ACA implementation, we added choices to the individual market corresponding to plans that will be available in state and federal exchanges. Depending on eligibility for premium subsidies, we reduced the out-of-pocket premiums for those choices. We simulated several possible patterns for states opting out of the Medicaid expansion, as allowed by the Supreme Court. The ACA will increase coverage substantially in the private insurance market and Medicaid. HSAs will remain desirable in both the individual and employer markets. If states opt out of the Medicaid expansion, this could increase the federal cost of health reform, while reducing the number of newly covered lives. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

The Potential Effects of Obesity on Social Security Claiming Behavior and Retirement Benefits.

PubMed

Knoll, Melissa A Z; Shoffner, Dave; O'Leary, Samantha

2018-04-16

Obesity prevalence among Americans has increased for nearly three decades. We explore the relationship between the rise in obesity and Social Security retirement benefit claiming, a decision impacting nearly all aging Americans. Specifically, we investigate whether obesity can affect individuals' decision to claim benefits early, a choice that has important implications for financial security in retirement, particularly for those with lower socioeconomic status (SES). We use a microsimulation model called MINT6 (Modeling Income in the Near Term, version 6) to demonstrate the potential effects of obesity on subjective life expectancy and claiming behavior. We impute obesity status using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), which describes the distribution of obesity prevalence within the United States by gender, poverty status, and race/ethnicity. We find that the rise in obesity and the consequent incidence of obesity-related diseases may lead some individuals to make claiming decisions that lead to lower monthly and lifetime Social Security retirement benefits. Further, we find that the potential economic impact of this decision is larger for those with lower SES. We present a behavioral perspective by addressing the potential effects that obesity can have on individuals' retirement decisions and their resulting Social Security retirement benefits.

Study on Performance of Intersection Around The Underpass Using Micro Simulation Program

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arliansyah, J.; Bawono, R. T.

2018-03-01

In order to overcome the problems of congestion at the major intersections in Palembang City, there have been grade separation constructions in the form of flyover or underpass. One of them is the intersection of Patal Pusri Underpass. The smooth traffic due to the underpass construction needs to be balanced by the arrangement management at the intersections located close to the underpass to get the best network performance since both affect each other performance. The Taman Kenten and Seduduk Putih junctions which are just 569 and 226 meters from the underpass of Patal Pusri has to be analyzed for its needs of management and traffic arrangements to reduce its impact on the performance of the intersection of Patal Pusri or vice versa. Some alternatives of management and traffic arrangements were developed to get the best solutions and the Vissim 8.00 microsimulation program was used to evaluate the performance of intersections in the network where the compared parameters are the value of the queue length and average delay. The results of the analysis and the conducted modeling show that the best solution to optimize the performance of the two junctions are to make geometric changes and diversion of traffic flow at Seduduk Putih Junction and making geometric changes at Taman Kenten Junction.

Cost-effectiveness of a patient navigation program to improve cervical cancer screening.

PubMed

Li, Yan; Carlson, Erin; Villarreal, Roberto; Meraz, Leah; Pagán, José A

2017-07-01

To assess the cost-effectiveness of a community-based patient navigation program to improve cervical cancer screening among Hispanic women 18 or older in San Antonio, Texas. We used a microsimulation model of cervical cancer to project the long-term cost-effectiveness of a community-based patient navigation program compared with current practice. We used program data from 2012 to 2015 and published data from the existing literature as model input. Taking a societal perspective, we estimated the lifetime costs, life expectancy, and quality-adjusted life-years and conducted 2-way sensitivity analyses to account for parameter uncertainty. The patient navigation program resulted in a per-capita gain of 0.2 years of life expectancy. The program was highly cost-effective relative to no intervention (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $748). The program costs would have to increase up to 10 times from $311 for it not to be cost-effective. The 3-year community-based patient navigation program effectively increased cervical cancer screening uptake and adherence and improved the cost-effectiveness of the screening program for Hispanic women 18 years or older in San Antonio, Texas. Future research is needed to translate and disseminate the patient navigation program to other socioeconomic and demographic groups to test its robustness and design.

Tax Subsidies for Employer-Sponsored Health Insurance: Updated Microsimulation Estimates and Sensitivity to Alternative Incidence Assumptions

PubMed Central

Miller, G Edward; Selden, Thomas M

2013-01-01

Objective To estimate 2012 tax expenditures for employer-sponsored insurance (ESI) in the United States and to explore the sensitivity of estimates to assumptions regarding the incidence of employer premium contributions. Data Sources Nationally representative Medical Expenditure Panel Survey data from the 2005–2007 Household Component (MEPS-HC) and the 2009–2010 Insurance Component (MEPS IC). Study Design We use MEPS HC workers to construct synthetic workforces for MEPS IC establishments, applying the workers' marginal tax rates to the establishments' insurance premiums to compute the tax subsidy, in aggregate and by establishment characteristics. Simulation enables us to examine the sensitivity of ESI tax subsidy estimates to a range of scenarios for the within-firm incidence of employer premium contributions when workers have heterogeneous health risks and make heterogeneous plan choices. Principal Findings We simulate the total ESI tax subsidy for all active, civilian U.S. workers to be $257.4 billion in 2012. In the private sector, the subsidy disproportionately flows to workers in large establishments and establishments with predominantly high wage or full-time workforces. The estimates are remarkably robust to alternative incidence assumptions. Conclusions The aggregate value of the ESI tax subsidy and its distribution across firms can be reliably estimated using simplified incidence assumptions. PMID:23398400

Who pays for health care in the United States? Implications for health system reform.

PubMed

Holahan, J; Zedlewski, S

1992-01-01

This paper examines the distribution of health care spending and financing in the United States. We analyze the distribution of employer and employee contributions to health insurance, private nongroup health insurance purchases, out-of-pocket expenses, Medicaid benefits, uncompensated care, tax benefits due to the exemption of employer-paid health benefits, and taxes paid to finance Medicare, Medicaid, and the health benefit tax exclusion. All spending and financing burdens are distributed across the U.S. population using the Urban Institute's TRIM2 microsimulation model. We then examine the distributional effects of the U.S. health care system across income levels, family types, and regions of the country. The results show that health care spending increases with income. Spending for persons in the highest income deciles is about 60% above that of persons in the lowest decile. Nonetheless, the distribution of health care financing is regressive. When direct spending, employer contributions, tax benefits, and tax spending are all considered, the persons in the lowest income deciles devote nearly 20% of cash income to finance health care, compared with about 8% for persons in the highest income decile. We discuss how alternative health system reform approaches are likely to change the distribution of health spending and financing burdens.

Forecasting Trends in Disability in a Super-Aging Society: Adapting the Future Elderly Model to Japan.

PubMed

Chen, Brian K; Jalal, Hawre; Hashimoto, Hideki; Suen, Sze-Chuan; Eggleston, Karen; Hurley, Michael; Schoemaker, Lena; Bhattacharya, Jay

2016-12-01

Japan has experienced pronounced population aging, and now has the highest proportion of elderly adults in the world. Yet few projections of Japan's future demography go beyond estimating population by age and sex to forecast the complex evolution of the health and functioning of the future elderly. This study estimates a new state-transition microsimulation model - the Japanese Future Elderly Model (FEM) - for Japan. We use the model to forecast disability and health for Japan's future elderly. Our simulation suggests that by 2040, over 27 percent of Japan's elderly will exhibit 3 or more limitations in IADLs and social functioning; almost one in 4 will experience difficulties with 3 or more ADLs; and approximately one in 5 will suffer limitations in cognitive or intellectual functioning. Since the majority of the increase in disability arises from the aging of the Japanese population, prevention efforts that reduce age-specific morbidity can help reduce the burden of disability but may have only a limited impact on reducing the overall prevalence of disability among Japanese elderly. While both age and morbidity contribute to a predicted increase in disability burden among elderly Japanese in the future, our simulation results suggest that the impact of population aging exceeds the effect of age-specific morbidity on increasing disability in Japan's future.

[Burden of smoking-related disease and potential impact of cigarette price increase in Peru].

PubMed

Bardach, Ariel E; Caporale, Joaquín E; Alcaraz, Andrea; Augustovski, Federico; Huayanay-Falconí, Leandro; Loza-Munarriz, Cesar; Hernández-Vásquez, Akram; Pichon-Riviere, Andrés

2016-01-01

. To calculate the burden of smoking-related disease and evaluate the potential economic and health impact of tax-induced cigarette price increase in Peru. A microsimulation model was used to estimate smoking-attributable impact on mortality, quality of life, and costs associated with heart and cerebrovascular disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, pneumonia, lung cancer, and another nine cancers. Three scenarios, involving increased taxes, were evaluated. . A yearly total of 16,719 deaths, 6,926 cancer diagnoses, 7,936 strokes, and 7,548 hospital admissions due to cardiovascular disease can be attributed to smoking in Peru. Similarly, 396,069 years of life are lost each year from premature death and disability, and the cost of treating smoking-attributable health issues rises to 2,500 million soles (PEN 2015). Currently, taxes on tobacco cover only 9.1% of this expense. If cigarette prices were to increase by 50% over the next 10 years, 13,391 deaths, 6,210 cardiovascular events, and 5,361 new cancers could be prevented, representing an economic benefit of 3,145 million (PEN) in savings in health costs and increases in tax revenues. . Smoking-attributable burden of disease and costs to the health system are very high in Peru. Higher cigarette taxes could have substantial health and economic benefits for the country.

Colorectal Cancer Deaths Attributable to Nonuse of Screening in the United States

PubMed Central

Meester, Reinier G.S.; Doubeni, Chyke A.; Lansdorp-Vogelaar, Iris; Goede, S.L.; Levin, Theodore R.; Quinn, Virginia P.; van Ballegooijen, Marjolein; Corley, Douglas A.; Zauber, Ann G.

2015-01-01

Purpose Screening is a major contributor to colorectal cancer (CRC) mortality reductions in the U.S., but is underutilized. We estimated the fraction of CRC deaths attributable to nonuse of screening to demonstrate the potential benefits from targeted interventions. Methods The established MISCAN-colon microsimulation model was used to estimate the population attributable fraction (PAF) in people aged ≥50 years. The model incorporates long-term patterns and effects of screening by age and type of screening test. PAF for 2010 was estimated using currently available data on screening uptake; PAF was also projected assuming constant future screening rates to incorporate lagged effects from past increases in screening uptake. We also computed PAF using Levin's formula to gauge how this simpler approach differs from the model-based approach. Results There were an estimated 51,500 CRC deaths in 2010, about 63% (N∼32,200) of which were attributable to non-screening. The PAF decreases slightly to 58% in 2020. Levin's approach yielded a considerably more conservative PAF of 46% (N∼23,600) for 2010. Conclusions The majority of current U.S. CRC deaths are attributable to non-screening. This underscores the potential benefits of increasing screening uptake in the population. Traditional methods of estimating PAF underestimated screening effects compared with model-based approaches. PMID:25721748

Macroeconomic impact of HIV: the need for better modelling.

PubMed

Lamontagne, Erik; Haacker, Markus; Ventelou, Bruno; Greener, Robert

2010-05-01

To critically evaluate the recent literature on macroeconomic repercussions of the HIV pandemic and the response to it. The review focuses on the impacts of HIV through both its health consequences and its impact on the accumulation of human capital. So far, most studies have found a moderate impact of the HIV epidemic on macroeconomic growth. However, recent studies tend to emphasize the fact that HIV undermines human capital and implies a long-term detriment for economic development. Availability of data from Demographic and Health Surveys offers opportunities for better understanding the relationship between the HIV epidemic and economic growth through pathways linking its microeconomic and macroeconomic impacts. The macroeconomic impact of HIV observed so far appears moderate. Our analysis of recent literature, however, points out three important issues that may have been previously underestimated. First, the most important effects may occur in the longer run, through changes in the accumulation of human capital. Second, aggregate impact often masks an unequal impact among different economic groups. Third, the empirical evidence on which current macroeconomic models are based remains weak, in particular in the way it takes into account responses to HIV at the households' level. Microsimulation models and the recently increasing availability of robust datasets at households' level offer promising opportunities to address these issues.

HIV/AIDS, growth and poverty in KwaZulu-Natal and South Africa: an integrated survey, demographic and economy-wide analysis

PubMed Central

2009-01-01

Background This paper estimates the economic impact of HIV/AIDS on the KwaZulu-Natal province and the rest of South Africa. Methods We extended previous studies by employing: an integrated analytical framework that combined firm surveys of workers' HIV prevalence by sector and occupation; a demographic model that produced both population and workforce projections; and a regionalized economy-wide model linked to a survey-based micro-simulation module. This framework permits a full macro-microeconomic assessment. Results Results indicate that HIV/AIDS greatly reduces annual economic growth, mainly by lowering the long-run rate of technical change. However, impacts on income poverty are small, and inequality is reduced by HIV/AIDS. This is because high unemployment among low-income households minimises the economic costs of increased mortality. By contrast, slower economic growth hurts higher income households despite lower HIV prevalence. Conclusion We conclude that the increase in economic growth that results from addressing HIV/AIDS is sufficient to offset the population pressure placed on income poverty. Moreover, incentives to mitigate HIV/AIDS lie not only with poorer infected households, but also with uninfected higher income households. Our findings reveal the substantial burden that HIV/AIDS places on future economic development in KwaZulu-Natal and South Africa, and confirms the need for policies to curb the economic costs of the pandemic. PMID:19758444

Health Technology Assessment of Belimumab: A New Monoclonal Antibody for the Treatment of Systemic Lupus Erythematosus

PubMed Central

Doria, Andrea; Capizzi, Silvio; Iaccarino, Luca; Pierotti, Francesca; Palla, Ilaria; Veneziano, Maria Assunta; Gliubizzi, Daniela; Sferrazza, Antonella; Nicolotti, Nicola; La Torre, Giuseppe; Di Pietro, Maria Luisa

2014-01-01

Objective. Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) is treated with anti-inflammatory and immunosuppressive drugs and off-label biologics. Belimumab is the first biologic approved after 50 years as an add-on therapy for active disease. This paper summarizes a health technology assessment performed in Italy. Methods. SLE epidemiology and burden were assessed using the best published international and national evidences and efficacy and safety of belimumab were synthesized using clinical data. A cost-effectiveness analysis was performed by a lifetime microsimulation model comparing belimumab to standard of care (SoC). Organizational and ethical implications were discussed. Results. Literature review showed that SLE affects 47 per 100,000 people for a total of 28,500 patients in Italy, 50% of whom are affected by active form of the disease despite SoC. These patients, if autoantibodies and anti-dsDNA positive with low complement, are eligible for belimumab. SLE determines work disability and a 2–5-fold increase in mortality. Belimumab with SoC may prevent 4,742 flares in three years being cost-effective with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of €32,859 per quality adjusted life year gained. From the organizational perspective, the development of clear and comprehensive clinical pathways is crucial. Conclusions. The assessment supports the use of belimumab into the SLE treatment paradigm in Italy. PMID:25243173

The economic benefits of reducing cardiovascular disease mortality in Quebec, Canada.

PubMed

Boisclair, David; Décarie, Yann; Laliberté-Auger, François; Michaud, Pierre-Carl; Vincent, Carole

2018-01-01

We assess how different scenarios of cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention, aimed at meeting targets set by the World Health Organization (WHO) for 2025), may impact healthcare spending in Quebec, Canada over the 2050 horizon. We provide long-term forecasts of healthcare use and costs at the Quebec population level using a novel dynamic microsimulation model. Using both survey and administrative data, we simulate the evolution of the Quebec population's health status until death, through a series of dynamic transitions that accounts for social and demographic characteristics associated with CVD risk factors. A 25% reduction in CVD mortality between 2012 and 2025 achieved through decreased incidence could contain the pace of healthcare cost growth towards 2050 by nearly 7 percentage points for consultations with a physician, and by almost 9 percentage points for hospitalizations. Over the 2012-2050 period, the present value of cost savings is projected to amount to C$13.1 billion in 2012 dollars. The years of life saved due to improved life expectancy could be worth another C$38.2 billion. Addressing CVD mortality directly instead would bring about higher healthcare costs, but would generate more value in terms of years of life saved, at C$69.6 billion. Potential savings associated with plausible reductions in CVD, aimed at reaching a World Health Organization target over a 12-year period, are sizeable and may help address challenges associated with an aging population.

Forecasting Trends in Disability in a Super-Aging Society: Adapting the Future Elderly Model to Japan

PubMed Central

Chen, Brian K.; Jalal, Hawre; Hashimoto, Hideki; Suen, Sze-chuan; Eggleston, Karen; Hurley, Michael; Schoemaker, Lena; Bhattacharya, Jay

2016-01-01

Japan has experienced pronounced population aging, and now has the highest proportion of elderly adults in the world. Yet few projections of Japan’s future demography go beyond estimating population by age and sex to forecast the complex evolution of the health and functioning of the future elderly. This study estimates a new state-transition microsimulation model – the Japanese Future Elderly Model (FEM) – for Japan. We use the model to forecast disability and health for Japan’s future elderly. Our simulation suggests that by 2040, over 27 percent of Japan’s elderly will exhibit 3 or more limitations in IADLs and social functioning; almost one in 4 will experience difficulties with 3 or more ADLs; and approximately one in 5 will suffer limitations in cognitive or intellectual functioning. Since the majority of the increase in disability arises from the aging of the Japanese population, prevention efforts that reduce age-specific morbidity can help reduce the burden of disability but may have only a limited impact on reducing the overall prevalence of disability among Japanese elderly. While both age and morbidity contribute to a predicted increase in disability burden among elderly Japanese in the future, our simulation results suggest that the impact of population aging exceeds the effect of age-specific morbidity on increasing disability in Japan’s future. PMID:28580275

Estimating mean QALYs in trial-based cost-effectiveness analysis: the importance of controlling for baseline utility.

PubMed

Manca, Andrea; Hawkins, Neil; Sculpher, Mark J

2005-05-01

In trial-based cost-effectiveness analysis baseline mean utility values are invariably imbalanced between treatment arms. A patient's baseline utility is likely to be highly correlated with their quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) over the follow-up period, not least because it typically contributes to the QALY calculation. Therefore, imbalance in baseline utility needs to be accounted for in the estimation of mean differential QALYs, and failure to control for this imbalance can result in a misleading incremental cost-effectiveness ratio. This paper discusses the approaches that have been used in the cost-effectiveness literature to estimate absolute and differential mean QALYs alongside randomised trials, and illustrates the implications of baseline mean utility imbalance for QALY calculation. Using data from a recently conducted trial-based cost-effectiveness study and a micro-simulation exercise, the relative performance of alternative estimators is compared, showing that widely used methods to calculate differential QALYs provide incorrect results in the presence of baseline mean utility imbalance regardless of whether these differences are formally statistically significant. It is demonstrated that multiple regression methods can be usefully applied to generate appropriate estimates of differential mean QALYs and an associated measure of sampling variability, while controlling for differences in baseline mean utility between treatment arms in the trial. Copyright 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

Professional oral health care for preventing nursing home-acquired pneumonia: A cost-effectiveness and value of information analysis.

PubMed

Schwendicke, Falk; Stolpe, Michael; Müller, Frauke

2017-12-01

Professional oral health care (POHC) prevents nursing home-acquired pneumonia (NHAP) and its related mortality. We assessed the cost-effectiveness of POHC versus no POHC (nPOHC) and the monetary value of eliminating uncertainty by future research. A German public-private payer perspective was adopted. A Markov model was used, following long-term care residents from admission to death. Cost-effectiveness was estimated as Euro/disability-adjusted life year (DALY) using Monte Carlo microsimulations. Value-of-information analyses were performed. The willingness-to-pay threshold/DALY was assumed to be 66% (range 50%-100%) of per-capita gross domestic product (GDP). nPOHC was less costly (€3,024) but also less effective (0.89 DALYs) than POHC (€10,249, 0.55 DALYs). For most presumed payers, POHC was cost-effective. The cost-effectiveness of POHC was higher in smokers, underweight or pulmonary disease patients. Eliminating uncertainty about the NHAP costs, NHAP incidence/mortality, and POHC effectiveness would result in an expected net value of 47 million €/year (and even higher values at lower GDP thresholds), and is likely to decrease with time. Within the chosen setting and on the basis of current evidence, POHC was cost-effective. Given the detected uncertainty, further research seems warranted. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

U.S. pharmaceutical policy in a global marketplace

PubMed Central

Lakdawalla, Darius; Goldman, Dana P.; Michaud, Pierre-Carl; Sood, Neeraj; Lempert, Robert; Cong, Ze; de Vries, Han; Gutierrez, Italo

2013-01-01

Markets for innovative goods involve significant spillovers in a global economy. When US consumers pay higher prices for drugs, this stimulates innovation that benefits consumers all over the world. Conversely, when large European markets restrict prices and profits, foreign consumers bear some of the long-run cost in the form of less innovation. The result is a free-riding problem at a global level. These incentives are particularly strong for smaller markets, whose policies have relatively little impact on global innovation, but can have relatively large impacts on national pharmaceutical budgets. The result is a system in which the largest countries bear disproportionate burdens for stimulating innovation. Using a microsimulation approach, we estimate the impact of these incentive effects. The model’s baseline estimates demonstrates that the US adoption of European-style price controls would harm consumers in the US and Europe; over a 50-year period, it would cost $8 trillion in the US, and $5 trillion in Europe. Similarly, repealing European price controls would add $10 trillion to the wealth of US society, and $6 trillion to wealth in Europe. Even under the most conservative assumptions, adopting price controls generates at best a small benefit, but risks a large cost. On the other hand, reducing pharmaceutical copayments would increase wealth in both societies, a result which is robust to a wide variety of parameter values. PMID:19088101

Can ivermectin mass treatments eliminate onchocerciasis in Africa?

PubMed Central

Winnen, M.; Plaisier, A. P.; Alley, E. S.; Nagelkerke, N. J. D.; van Oortmarssen, G.; Boatin, B. A.; Habbema, J. D. F.

2002-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To elucidate the conditions in which mass treatment with ivermectin reduces the transmission of Onchocerca volvulus sufficiently to eliminate infection from an African community. METHODS: ONCHOSIM, a microsimulation model for onchocerciasis transmission, was used to explore the implications of different treatment intervals, coverage levels and precontrol endemicities for the likelihood of elimination. FINDINGS: Simulations suggested that control strategies based exclusively on ivermectin mass treatments could eliminate onchocerciasis. The duration of treatment required to eliminate infection depended heavily on the treatment programme and precontrol endemicity. In areas with medium to high levels of infection, annual mass treatments with 65% coverage for at least 25 years were necessary. Model predictions suggested that durations exceeding 35 years would be required if there were much heterogeneity in exposure to vector bites and, consequently, wide individual variation in microfilaria counts. If the treatment interval were reduced from 12 to 6 months the time for completion of the programme could be more than halved and elimination could be accomplished in areas of hyperendemicity, provided that the effects of each treatment would be the same as with annual treatments. However, it was doubtful whether high coverage levels could be sustained long enough to achieve worldwide eradication. CONCLUSION: Elimination of onchocerciasis from most endemic foci in Africa appears to be possible. However, the requirements in terms of duration, coverage, and frequency of treatment may be prohibitive in highly endemic areas. PMID:12077614

A PFC2D model of the interactions between the tire and the aggregate filled arrester bed on escape ramp

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qin, Pin-pin; Chen, Chui-ce; Pei, Shi-kang; Li, Xin

2017-06-01

The stopping distance of a runaway vehicle is determined by the entry speed, the design of aggregate-filled arrester bed and the longitudinal grade of escape ramp. Although numerous previous studies have been carried out on the influence of speed and grade on stopping distance, taking into account aggregate properties is rare. Firstly, this paper analyzes the interactions between the tire and the aggregate. The tire and the aggregate are abstracted into a big particle unit and a particle combination unit consisting of lots of aggregates, respectively. Secondly this paper proposes an assumption that this interaction is a kind of particle flow. Later, this paper uses some particle properties to describe the tire-particle unit and aggregate-particle unit respectively, then puts forward several simplified steps of modeling by particle flow code in 2 dimensions (PFC2D). Therefore, a PFC2D micro-simulation model of the interactions between the tire and the aggregate is proposed. The parameters of particle properties are then calibrated by three groups of numerical tests. The calibrated model is verified by eight full-scale arrester bed testing data to demonstrate its feasibility and accuracy. This model provides escape ramp designers a feasible simulation method not only for predicting the stopping distance but also considering the aggregate properties.

Microsimulation of Private Health Insurance and Medicaid Take-Up Following the U.S. Supreme Court Decision Upholding the Affordable Care Act

PubMed Central

Parente, Stephen T; Feldman, Roger

2013-01-01

Objective To predict take-up of private health insurance and Medicaid following the U.S. Supreme Court decision upholding the Affordable Care Act (ACA). Data Sources Data came from three large employers and a sampling of premiums from http://ehealthinsurance.com. We supplemented the employer data with information on state Medicaid eligibility and costs from the Kaiser Family Foundation. National predictions were based on the MEPS Household Component. Study Design We estimated a conditional logit model of health plan choice in the large group market. Using the coefficients from the choice model, we predicted take-up in the group and individual health insurance markets. Following ACA implementation, we added choices to the individual market corresponding to plans that will be available in state and federal exchanges. Depending on eligibility for premium subsidies, we reduced the out-of-pocket premiums for those choices. We simulated several possible patterns for states opting out of the Medicaid expansion, as allowed by the Supreme Court. Principal Findings The ACA will increase coverage substantially in the private insurance market and Medicaid. HSAs will remain desirable in both the individual and employer markets. Conclusions If states opt out of the Medicaid expansion, this could increase the federal cost of health reform, while reducing the number of newly covered lives. PMID:23398372

Weighted social networks for a large scale artificial society

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fan, Zong Chen; Duan, Wei; Zhang, Peng; Qiu, Xiao Gang

2016-12-01

The method of artificial society has provided a powerful way to study and explain how individual behaviors at micro level give rise to the emergence of global social phenomenon. It also creates the need for an appropriate representation of social structure which usually has a significant influence on human behaviors. It has been widely acknowledged that social networks are the main paradigm to describe social structure and reflect social relationships within a population. To generate social networks for a population of interest, considering physical distance and social distance among people, we propose a generation model of social networks for a large-scale artificial society based on human choice behavior theory under the principle of random utility maximization. As a premise, we first build an artificial society through constructing a synthetic population with a series of attributes in line with the statistical (census) data for Beijing. Then the generation model is applied to assign social relationships to each individual in the synthetic population. Compared with previous empirical findings, the results show that our model can reproduce the general characteristics of social networks, such as high clustering coefficient, significant community structure and small-world property. Our model can also be extended to a larger social micro-simulation as an input initial. It will facilitate to research and predict some social phenomenon or issues, for example, epidemic transition and rumor spreading.

HMG versus rFSH for ovulation induction in developing countries: a cost-effectiveness analysis based on the results of a recent meta-analysis.

PubMed

Al-Inany, Hesham G; Abou-Setta, Ahmed M; Aboulghar, Mohamed A; Mansour, Ragaa T; Serour, Gamal I

2006-02-01

Both cost and effectiveness should be considered conjointly to aid judgments about drug choice. Therefore, based on the results of a recent published meta-analysis, a Markov model was developed to conduct a cost-effectiveness analysis for estimation of the cost of an ongoing pregnancy in IVF/intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) cycles. In addition, Monte Carlo micro-simulation was used to examine the potential impact of assumptions and other uncertainties represented in the model. The results of the study reveal that the estimated average cost of an ongoing pregnancy is 13,946 Egyptian pounds (EGP), and 18,721 EGP for a human menopausal gonadotrophin (HMG) and rFSH cycle respectively. On performing a sensitivity analysis on cycle costs, it was demonstrated that the rFSH price should be 0.61 EGP/IU to be as cost-effective as HMG at the price of 0.64 EGP/IU (i.e. around 60% reduction in its current price). The difference in cost between HMG and rFSH in over 100,000 cycles would result in an additional 4565 ongoing pregnancies if HMG was used. Therefore, HMG was clearly more cost-effective than rFSH. The decision to adopt a more expensive, cost-ineffective treatment could result in a lower number of cycles of IVF/ICSI treatment undertaken, especially in the case of most developing countries.

Adult vector control, mosquito ecology and malaria transmission

PubMed Central

Brady, Oliver J.; Godfray, H. Charles J.; Tatem, Andrew J.; Gething, Peter W.; Cohen, Justin M.; McKenzie, F. Ellis; Alex Perkins, T.; Reiner, Robert C.; Tusting, Lucy S.; Scott, Thomas W.; Lindsay, Steven W.; Hay, Simon I.; Smith, David L.

2015-01-01

Background Standard advice regarding vector control is to prefer interventions that reduce the lifespan of adult mosquitoes. The basis for this advice is a decades-old sensitivity analysis of ‘vectorial capacity’, a concept relevant for most malaria transmission models and based solely on adult mosquito population dynamics. Recent advances in micro-simulation models offer an opportunity to expand the theory of vectorial capacity to include both adult and juvenile mosquito stages in the model. Methods In this study we revisit arguments about transmission and its sensitivity to mosquito bionomic parameters using an elasticity analysis of developed formulations of vectorial capacity. Results We show that reducing adult survival has effects on both adult and juvenile population size, which are significant for transmission and not accounted for in traditional formulations of vectorial capacity. The elasticity of these effects is dependent on various mosquito population parameters, which we explore. Overall, control is most sensitive to methods that affect adult mosquito mortality rates, followed by blood feeding frequency, human blood feeding habit, and lastly, to adult mosquito population density. Conclusions These results emphasise more strongly than ever the sensitivity of transmission to adult mosquito mortality, but also suggest the high potential of combinations of interventions including larval source management. This must be done with caution, however, as policy requires a more careful consideration of costs, operational difficulties and policy goals in relation to baseline transmission. PMID:25733562

The Mt. Hood challenge: cross-testing two diabetes simulation models.

PubMed

Brown, J B; Palmer, A J; Bisgaard, P; Chan, W; Pedula, K; Russell, A

2000-11-01

Starting from identical patients with type 2 diabetes, we compared the 20-year predictions of two computer simulation models, a 1998 version of the IMIB model and version 2.17 of the Global Diabetes Model (GDM). Primary measures of outcome were 20-year cumulative rates of: survival, first (incident) acute myocardial infarction (AMI), first stroke, proliferative diabetic retinopathy (PDR), macro-albuminuria (gross proteinuria, or GPR), and amputation. Standardized test patients were newly diagnosed males aged 45 or 75, with high and low levels of glycated hemoglobin (HbA(1c)), systolic blood pressure (SBP), and serum lipids. Both models generated realistic results and appropriate responses to changes in risk factors. Compared with the GDM, the IMIB model predicted much higher rates of mortality and AMI, and fewer strokes. These differences can be explained by differences in model architecture (Markov vs. microsimulation), different evidence bases for cardiovascular prediction (Framingham Heart Study cohort vs. Kaiser Permanente patients), and isolated versus interdependent prediction of cardiovascular events. Compared with IMIB, GDM predicted much higher lifetime costs, because of lower mortality and the use of a different costing method. It is feasible to cross-validate and explicate dissimilar diabetes simulation models using standardized patients. The wide differences in the model results that we observed demonstrate the need for cross-validation. We propose to hold a second 'Mt Hood Challenge' in 2001 and invite all diabetes modelers to attend.

Perspectives: Using Results from HRSA's Health Workforce Simulation Model to Examine the Geography of Primary Care.

PubMed

Streeter, Robin A; Zangaro, George A; Chattopadhyay, Arpita

2017-02-01

Inform health planning and policy discussions by describing Health Resources and Services Administration's (HRSA's) Health Workforce Simulation Model (HWSM) and examining the HWSM's 2025 supply and demand projections for primary care physicians, nurse practitioners (NPs), and physician assistants (PAs). HRSA's recently published projections for primary care providers derive from an integrated microsimulation model that estimates health workforce supply and demand at national, regional, and state levels. Thirty-seven states are projected to have shortages of primary care physicians in 2025, and nine states are projected to have shortages of both primary care physicians and PAs. While no state is projected to have a 2025 shortage of primary care NPs, many states are expected to have only a small surplus. Primary care physician shortages are projected for all parts of the United States, while primary care PA shortages are generally confined to Midwestern and Southern states. No state is projected to have shortages of all three provider types. Projected shortages must be considered in the context of baseline assumptions regarding current supply, demand, provider-service ratios, and other factors. Still, these findings suggest geographies with possible primary care workforce shortages in 2025 and offer opportunities for targeting efforts to enhance workforce flexibility. © Published 2017. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Performance and Cost-Effectiveness of Computed Tomography Lung Cancer Screening Scenarios in a Population-Based Setting: A Microsimulation Modeling Analysis in Ontario, Canada.

PubMed

Ten Haaf, Kevin; Tammemägi, Martin C; Bondy, Susan J; van der Aalst, Carlijn M; Gu, Sumei; McGregor, S Elizabeth; Nicholas, Garth; de Koning, Harry J; Paszat, Lawrence F

2017-02-01

The National Lung Screening Trial (NLST) results indicate that computed tomography (CT) lung cancer screening for current and former smokers with three annual screens can be cost-effective in a trial setting. However, the cost-effectiveness in a population-based setting with >3 screening rounds is uncertain. Therefore, the objective of this study was to estimate the cost-effectiveness of lung cancer screening in a population-based setting in Ontario, Canada, and evaluate the effects of screening eligibility criteria. This study used microsimulation modeling informed by various data sources, including the Ontario Health Insurance Plan (OHIP), Ontario Cancer Registry, smoking behavior surveys, and the NLST. Persons, born between 1940 and 1969, were examined from a third-party health care payer perspective across a lifetime horizon. Starting in 2015, 576 CT screening scenarios were examined, varying by age to start and end screening, smoking eligibility criteria, and screening interval. Among the examined outcome measures were lung cancer deaths averted, life-years gained, percentage ever screened, costs (in 2015 Canadian dollars), and overdiagnosis. The results of the base-case analysis indicated that annual screening was more cost-effective than biennial screening. Scenarios with eligibility criteria that required as few as 20 pack-years were dominated by scenarios that required higher numbers of accumulated pack-years. In general, scenarios that applied stringent smoking eligibility criteria (i.e., requiring higher levels of accumulated smoking exposure) were more cost-effective than scenarios with less stringent smoking eligibility criteria, with modest differences in life-years gained. Annual screening between ages 55-75 for persons who smoked ≥40 pack-years and who currently smoke or quit ≤10 y ago yielded an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $41,136 Canadian dollars ($33,825 in May 1, 2015, United States dollars) per life-year gained (compared to annual screening between ages 60-75 for persons who smoked ≥40 pack-years and who currently smoke or quit ≤10 y ago), which was considered optimal at a cost-effectiveness threshold of $50,000 Canadian dollars ($41,114 May 1, 2015, US dollars). If 50% lower or higher attributable costs were assumed, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of this scenario was estimated to be $38,240 ($31,444 May 1, 2015, US dollars) or $48,525 ($39,901 May 1, 2015, US dollars), respectively. If 50% lower or higher costs for CT examinations were assumed, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of this scenario was estimated to be $28,630 ($23,542 May 1, 2015, US dollars) or $73,507 ($60,443 May 1, 2015, US dollars), respectively. This scenario would screen 9.56% (499,261 individuals) of the total population (ever- and never-smokers) at least once, which would require 4,788,523 CT examinations, and reduce lung cancer mortality in the total population by 9.05% (preventing 13,108 lung cancer deaths), while 12.53% of screen-detected cancers would be overdiagnosed (4,282 overdiagnosed cases). Sensitivity analyses indicated that the overall results were most sensitive to variations in CT examination costs. Quality of life was not incorporated in the analyses, and assumptions for follow-up procedures were based on data from the NLST, which may not be generalizable to a population-based setting. Lung cancer screening with stringent smoking eligibility criteria can be cost-effective in a population-based setting.

Serial testing for latent tuberculosis using QuantiFERON-TB Gold In-Tube: A Markov model.

PubMed

Moses, Mark W; Zwerling, Alice; Cattamanchi, Adithya; Denkinger, Claudia M; Banaei, Niaz; Kik, Sandra V; Metcalfe, John; Pai, Madhukar; Dowdy, David

2016-07-29

Healthcare workers (HCWs) in low-incidence settings are often serially tested for latent TB infection (LTBI) with the QuantiFERON-TB Gold In-Tube (QFT) assay, which exhibits frequent conversions and reversions. The clinical impact of such variability on serial testing remains unknown. We used a microsimulation Markov model that accounts for major sources of variability to project diagnostic outcomes in a simulated North American HCW cohort. Serial testing using a single QFT with the recommended conversion cutoff (IFN-g > 0.35 IU/mL) resulted in 24.6% (95% uncertainty range, UR: 23.8-25.5) of the entire population testing false-positive over ten years. Raising the cutoff to >1.0 IU/mL or confirming initial positive results with a (presumed independent) second test reduced this false-positive percentage to 2.3% (95%UR: 2.0-2.6%) or 4.1% (95%UR: 3.7-4.5%), but also reduced the proportion of true incident infections detected within the first year of infection from 76.5% (95%UR: 66.3-84.6%) to 54.8% (95%UR: 44.6-64.5%) or 61.5% (95%UR: 51.6-70.9%), respectively. Serial QFT testing of HCWs in North America may result in tremendous over-diagnosis and over-treatment of LTBI, with nearly thirty false-positives for every true infection diagnosed. Using higher cutoffs for conversion or confirmatory tests (for initial positives) can mitigate these effects, but will also diagnose fewer true infections.

Quantifying the total cost of infrastructure to enable environmentally preferable decisions: the case of urban roadway design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gosse, Conrad A.; Clarens, Andres F.

2013-03-01

Efforts to reduce the environmental impacts of transportation infrastructure have generally overlooked many of the efficiencies that can be obtained by considering the relevant engineering and economic aspects as a system. Here, we present a framework for quantifying the burdens of ground transportation in urban settings that incorporates travel time, vehicle fuel and pavement maintenance costs. A Pareto set of bi-directional lane configurations for two-lane roadways yields non-dominated combinations of lane width, bicycle lanes and curb parking. Probabilistic analysis and microsimulation both show dramatic mobility reductions on road segments of insufficient width for heavy vehicles to pass bicycles without encroaching on oncoming traffic. This delay is positively correlated with uphill grades and increasing traffic volumes and inversely proportional to total pavement width. The response is nonlinear with grade and yields mixed uphill/downhill optimal lane configurations. Increasing bicycle mode share is negatively correlated with total costs and emissions for lane configurations allowing motor vehicles to safely pass bicycles, while the opposite is true for configurations that fail to facilitate passing. Spatial impacts on mobility also dictate that curb parking exhibits significant spatial opportunity costs related to the total cost Pareto curve. The proposed framework provides a means to evaluate relatively inexpensive lane reconfiguration options in response to changing modal share and priorities. These results provide quantitative evidence that efforts to reallocate limited pavement space to bicycles, like those being adopted in several US cities, could appreciably reduce costs for all users.

Did Statins Reduce the Health and Health Care Costs of Obesity?

PubMed Central

Gaudette, Étienne; Goldman, Dana P.; Messali, Andrew; Sood, Neeraj

2015-01-01

Context Obesity impacts both individual health and, given its high prevalence, total health care spending. However, as medical technology evolves, health outcomes for a number of obesity-related illnesses improve. This article examines whether medical innovation can mitigate the adverse health and spending associated with obesity, using statins as a case study. Due to the relationship between obesity and hypercholesterolemia, statins play an important role in the medical management of obese individuals and the prevention of costly obesity-related sequelae. Methods Using well-recognized estimates of the health impact of statins and the Future Elderly Model (FEM) – an established dynamic microsimulation model of health of Americans aged over 50 – we estimate the changes in life expectancy, functional status and health care cost of obesity due to the introduction and widespread use of statins. Results Life expectancy gains of statins are estimated to be 5%–6% higher for obese than healthy-weight individuals, but most of this additional gain is associated with some level of disability. Considering both medical spending and the value of quality-adjusted life-years, statins do not significantly alter the costs of class 1 and 2 obesity (BMI larger or equal to 30 and 35 kg/m2), and increase the costs of class 3 obesity (BMI larger or equal to 40 kg/m2) by 1.2%. Conclusions Although statins are very effective medications for lowering the risk of obesity-associated illnesses, they do not significantly reduce the costs of obesity. PMID:25576147

Quality-of-life effects of prostate-specific antigen screening

PubMed Central

Heijnsdijk, EAM; Wever, EM; Auvinen, A; Hugosson, J; Ciatto, S; Nelen, V; Kwiatkowski, M; Villers, A; Páez, A; Moss, SM; Zappa, M; Tammela, TLJ; Mäkinen, T; Carlsson, S; Korfage, IJ; Essink-Bot, ML; Otto, SJ; Draisma, G; Bangma, CH; Roobol, MJ; Schröder, FH; de Koning, HJ

2016-01-01

Background The European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer (ERSPC) reported a 29% prostate cancer mortality reduction among screened men after 11 years. However, it is uncertain to what extent harms from overdiagnosis and treatment on quality of life counterbalance this benefit. Methods Based on ERSPC follow-up data, we used micro-simulation modeling (MISCAN) to predict the number of prostate cancers, treatments, deaths and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained following the introduction of screening. Various screening strategies, efficacies, and quality of life assumptions were modeled. Results Per 1,000 men of all ages followed for their entire lifespan we predicted for annual screening from age 55–69 years: 9 fewer deaths due to prostate cancer (28% reduction), 14 fewer men receiving palliative therapy (35% reduction), and 73 life-years gained (average 8.4 years per prostate cancer death avoided). QALYs gained were 56 (range: −21, 97), a reduction of 23% from unadjusted life-years gained. The number needed to screen (NNS) was 98 and number needed to detect (NND) 5. Also inviting men aged 70–74 resulted in more life-years (82) but similar QALYs (56). Conclusions Although NNS and NND are more favorable than previously calculated, the benefit of PSA screening is diminished by loss of QALYs, that is dependent primarily on post-diagnosis long-term effects. Longer follow-up data from both the ERSPC and quality of life are essential before making universal recommendations regarding screening. PMID:22894572

Financial risk of increasing the follow-up period of breast cancer treatment currently covered by the Social Protection System in Health in México.

PubMed

Rodríguez-Aguilar, Román; Marmolejo-Saucedo, José Antonio; Tavera-Martínez, Sonia

2018-01-01

The objective of this work is to estimate the financial impact of increasing the monitoring period for breast cancer, which is financed by the Sistema de Protección Social en Salud (SPSS-Social Protection System in Health). A micro-simulation model was developed to monitor a cohort of patients with breast cancer, and also an estimation was made on the probability of surviving the monitoring period financed by the SPSS. Using the Monte Carlo simulation, the maximum expected cost was estimated to broaden such monitoring. Morbimortality information of the Ministry of Health and cases of breast cancer treated by the SPSS were used. Between 2013 and 2026, the financial resources to provide monitoring during 10 years to women diagnosed with breast cancer would reach up to $3607.40 million pesos on a base scenario, $4151.79 million pesos on the pessimistic scenario and $3414.85 million pesos on an optimistic scenario. In the base scenario, additional expenditure represents an annual increase of 9.1% of resources allocated to treating this disease, and 3.0% of the availability of the resources for the Fondo de Protección contra Gastos Catastróficos (FPGC-Fund for Protection against Catastrophic Expenditure). Increasing monitoring for patients with breast cancer would not represent a financial risk to the sustainability of the FPGC, and could increase patients survival and life quality.

Multiple chronic health conditions and their link with labour force participation and economic status.

PubMed

Schofield, Deborah J; Callander, Emily J; Shrestha, Rupendra N; Passey, Megan E; Percival, Richard; Kelly, Simon J

2013-01-01

To assess the labour force participation and quantify the economic status of older Australian workers with multiple health conditions. Many older people suffer from multiple health conditions. While multiple morbidities have been highlighted as an important research topic, there has been limited research in this area to date, particularly on the economic status of those with multiple morbidities. Cross sectional analysis of Health&WealthMOD, a microsimulation model of Australians aged 45 to 64 years. People with one chronic health condition had 0.59 times the odds of being employed compared to those with no condition (OR 0.59, 95% CI: 0.49, 0.71), and those with four or more conditions had 0.14 times the odds of being employed compared to those with no condition (OR 0.14, 95% CI: 0.11, 0.18). People with one condition received a weekly income 32% lower than those with no health condition, paid 49 % less tax, and received 37% more in government transfer payments; those with four or more conditions received a weekly income 94% lower, paid 97% less in tax and received over 2,000% more in government transfer payments per week than those with no condition. While having a chronic health condition is associated with lower labour force participation and poorer economic status, having multiple conditions compounds the affect - with these people being far less likely to be employed and having drastically lower incomes.

MODEM: A comprehensive approach to modelling outcome and costs impacts of interventions for dementia. Protocol paper.

PubMed

Comas-Herrera, Adelina; Knapp, Martin; Wittenberg, Raphael; Banerjee, Sube; Bowling, Ann; Grundy, Emily; Jagger, Carol; Farina, Nicolas; Lombard, Daniel; Lorenz, Klara; McDaid, David

2017-01-11

The MODEM project (A comprehensive approach to MODelling outcome and costs impacts of interventions for DEMentia) explores how changes in arrangements for the future treatment and care of people living with dementia, and support for family and other unpaid carers, could result in better outcomes and more efficient use of resources. MODEM starts with a systematic mapping of the literature on effective and (potentially) cost-effective interventions in dementia care. Those findings, as well as data from a cohort, will then be used to model the quality of life and cost impacts of making these evidence-based interventions more widely available in England over the period from now to 2040. Modelling will use a suite of models, combining microsimulation and macrosimulation methods, modelling the costs and outcomes of care, both for an individual over the life-course from the point of dementia diagnosis, and for individuals and England as a whole in a particular year. Project outputs will include an online Dementia Evidence Toolkit, making evidence summaries and a literature database available free to anyone, papers in academic journals and other written outputs, and a MODEM Legacy Model, which will enable local commissioners of services to apply the model to their own populations. Modelling the effects of evidence-based cost-effective interventions and making this information widely available has the potential to improve the health and quality of life both of people with dementia and their carers, while ensuring that resources are used efficiently.

Benchmarks for Reducing Emergency Department Visits and Hospitalizations Through Community Health Workers Integrated Into Primary Care: A Cost-Benefit Analysis.

PubMed

Basu, Sanjay; Jack, Helen E; Arabadjis, Sophia D; Phillips, Russell S

2017-02-01

Uncertainty about the financial costs and benefits of community health worker (CHW) programs remains a barrier to their adoption. To determine how much CHWs would need to reduce emergency department (ED) visits and associated hospitalizations among their assigned patients to be cost-neutral from a payer's perspective. Using a microsimulation of patient health care utilization, costs, and revenues, we estimated what portion of ED visits and hospitalizations for different conditions would need to be prevented by a CHW program to fully pay for the program's expenses. The model simulated CHW programs enrolling patients with a history of at least 1 ED visit for a chronic condition in the prior year, utilizing data on utilization and cost from national sources. CHWs assigned to patients with uncontrolled hypertension and congestive heart failure, as compared with other common conditions, achieve cost-neutrality with the lowest number of averted visits to the ED. To achieve cost-neutrality, 4-5 visits to the ED would need to be averted per year by a CHW assigned a panel of 70 patients with uncontrolled hypertension or congestive heart failure-approximately 3%-4% of typical ED visits among such patients, respectively. Most other chronic conditions would require between 7% and 12% of ED visits to be averted to achieve cost-savings. Offsetting costs of a CHW program is theoretically feasible for many common conditions. Yet the benchmark for reducing ED visits and associated hospitalizations varies substantially by a patient's primary diagnosis.

Projections of white and black older adults without living kin in the United States, 2015 to 2060.

PubMed

Verdery, Ashton M; Margolis, Rachel

2017-10-17

Close kin provide many important functions as adults age, affecting health, financial well-being, and happiness. Those without kin report higher rates of loneliness and experience elevated risks of chronic illness and nursing facility placement. Historical racial differences and recent shifts in core demographic rates suggest that white and black older adults in the United States may have unequal availability of close kin and that this gap in availability will widen in the coming decades. Whereas prior work explores the changing composition and size of the childless population or those without spouses, here we consider the kinless population of older adults with no living close family members and how this burden is changing for different race and sex groups. Using demographic microsimulation and the United States Census Bureau's recent national projections of core demographic rates by race, we examine two definitions of kinlessness: those without a partner or living children, and those without a partner, children, siblings, or parents. Our results suggest dramatic growth in the size of the kinless population as well as increasing racial disparities in percentages kinless. These conclusions are driven by declines in marriage and are robust to different assumptions about the future trajectory of divorce rates or growth in nonmarital partnerships. Our findings draw attention to the potential expansion of older adult loneliness, which is increasingly considered a threat to population health, and the unequal burden kinlessness may place on black Americans.

"Conditional scholarships" for HIV/AIDS health workers: educating and retaining the workforce to provide antiretroviral treatment in sub-Saharan Africa.

PubMed

Bärnighausen, Till; Bloom, David E

2009-02-01

Without large increases in the number of health workers to treat HIV/AIDS (HAHW) many countries in sub-Saharan Africa will be unable to achieve universal coverage with antiretroviral treatment (ART), leading to large numbers of avoidable deaths among people living with HIV/AIDS. We conduct a cost-benefit analysis of a health care education scholarship that is conditional on the recipient committing to work for several years after graduation delivering ART in sub-Saharan Africa. Such a scholarship could address two of the main reasons for the low numbers of health workers in sub-Saharan Africa: low education rates and high emigration rates. We use Markov Monte Carlo microsimulation to estimate the expected net present value (eNPV) of "conditional scholarships" in sub-Saharan Africa. The scholarships are highly eNPV-positive under a wide range of assumptions. Conditional scholarships for a HAHW team sufficient to provide ART for 500 patients have an eNPV of 1.24 million year-2000 US dollars, assuming that the scholarship recipients are in addition to the health workers who would have been educated without scholarships and that the scholarships reduce annual HAHW emigration probabilities from 15% to 5% for five years. The eNPV of the education effect of the scholarships is larger than eNPV of the migration effect. Policy makers should consider implementing "conditional scholarships" for HAHW, especially in countries where health worker education capacity is currently underutilized or can be rapidly expanded.

Do Statins Reduce the Health and Health Care Costs of Obesity?

PubMed

Gaudette, Étienne; Goldman, Dana P; Messali, Andrew; Sood, Neeraj

2015-07-01

Obesity impacts both individual health and, given its high prevalence, total health care spending. However, as medical technology evolves, health outcomes for a number of obesity-related illnesses improve. This article examines whether medical innovation can mitigate the adverse health and spending associated with obesity, using statins as a case study. Because of the relationship between obesity and hypercholesterolaemia, statins play an important role in the medical management of obese individuals and the prevention of costly obesity-related sequelae. Using well-recognized estimates of the health impact of statins and the Future Elderly Model (FEM)-an established dynamic microsimulation model of the health of Americans aged over 50 years-we estimate the changes in life expectancy, functional status and health care costs of obesity due to the introduction and widespread use of statins. Life expectancy gains of statins are estimated to be 5-6 % greater for obese individuals than for healthy-weight individuals, but most of these additional gains are associated with some level of disability. Considering both medical spending and the value of quality-adjusted life-years, statins do not significantly alter the costs of class 1 and 2 obesity (body mass index [BMI] ≥30 and ≥35 kg/m(2), respectively) and they increase the costs of class 3 obesity (BMI ≥40 kg/m(2)) by 1.2 %. Although statins are very effective medications for lowering the risk of obesity-associated illnesses, they do not significantly reduce the costs of obesity.

An Enduring Health Risk of Childhood Adversity: Earlier, More Severe, and Longer Lasting Work Disability in Adult Life.

PubMed

Laditka, Sarah B; Laditka, James N

2018-02-08

Childhood adversity has been linked with adult health problems. We hypothesized that childhood adversity would also be associated with work limitations due to physical or nervous health problems, known as work disability. With data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) (1968-2013; n=6,045; 82,374 transitions; 129,107 person-years) and the 2014 PSID Childhood Retrospective Circumstances Study, we estimated work disability transition probabilities with multinomial logistic Markov models. Four or more adversities defined a high level. Microsimulations quantified adult work disability patterns for African American and non-Hispanic white women and men, accounting for age, education, race, sex, diabetes, heart disease, obesity, and sedentary behavior. Childhood adversity was significantly associated with work disability. Of African American women with high adversity, 10.2% had moderate work disability at age 30 versus 4.1% with no reported adversities; comparable results for severe work disability were 5.6% versus 1.9% (both p<0.01). Comparable results for whites were 11.3% versus 4.7%, and 3.5% versus 1.1% (p<0.01). The association of childhood adversity with work disability remained significant after adjusting for diabetes, heart disease, obesity, and sedentary behavior (p<0.05). Childhood adversity may increase work disability throughout adult life. © The Author(s) 2018. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

[Financial impact of smoking on health systems in Latin America: A study of seven countries and extrapolation to the regional level].

PubMed

Pichon-Riviere, Andrés; Bardach, Ariel; Augustovski, Federico; Alcaraz, Andrea; Reynales-Shigematsu, Luz Myriam; Pinto, Márcia Teixeira; Castillo-Riquelme, Marianela; Torres, Esperanza Peña; Osorio, Diana Isabel; Huayanay, Leandro; Munarriz, César Loza; de Miera-Juárez, Belén Sáenz; Gallegos-Rivero, Verónica; Puente, Catherine De La; Navia-Bueno, María Del Pilar; Caporale, Joaquín

2016-10-01

Estimate smoking-attributable direct medical costs in Latin American health systems. A microsimulation model was used to quantify financial impact of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), pneumonia, lung cancer, and nine other neoplasms. A systematic search for epidemiological data and event costs was carried out. The model was calibrated and validated for Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru, countries that account for 78% of Latin America's population; the results were then extrapolated to the regional level. Every year, smoking is responsible for 33 576 billion dollars in direct costs to health systems. This amounts to 0.7% of the region's gross domestic product (GDP) and 8.3% of its health budget. Cardiovascular disease, COPD, and cancer were responsible for 30.3%, 26.9%, and 23.7% of these expenditures, respectively. Smoking-attributable costs ranged from 0.4% (Mexico and Peru) to 0.9% (Chile) of GDP and from 5.2% (Brazil) to 12.7% (Bolivia) of health expenditures. In the region, tax revenues from cigarette sales barely cover 37% of smoking-attributable health expenditures (8.1% in Bolivia and 67.3% in Argentina). Smoking is responsible for a significant proportion of health spending in Latin America, and tax revenues from cigarette sales are far from covering it. The region's countries should seriously consider stronger measures, such as an increase in tobacco taxes.

Adult vector control, mosquito ecology and malaria transmission.

PubMed

Brady, Oliver J; Godfray, H Charles J; Tatem, Andrew J; Gething, Peter W; Cohen, Justin M; McKenzie, F Ellis; Alex Perkins, T; Reiner, Robert C; Tusting, Lucy S; Scott, Thomas W; Lindsay, Steven W; Hay, Simon I; Smith, David L

2015-03-01

Standard advice regarding vector control is to prefer interventions that reduce the lifespan of adult mosquitoes. The basis for this advice is a decades-old sensitivity analysis of 'vectorial capacity', a concept relevant for most malaria transmission models and based solely on adult mosquito population dynamics. Recent advances in micro-simulation models offer an opportunity to expand the theory of vectorial capacity to include both adult and juvenile mosquito stages in the model. In this study we revisit arguments about transmission and its sensitivity to mosquito bionomic parameters using an elasticity analysis of developed formulations of vectorial capacity. We show that reducing adult survival has effects on both adult and juvenile population size, which are significant for transmission and not accounted for in traditional formulations of vectorial capacity. The elasticity of these effects is dependent on various mosquito population parameters, which we explore. Overall, control is most sensitive to methods that affect adult mosquito mortality rates, followed by blood feeding frequency, human blood feeding habit, and lastly, to adult mosquito population density. These results emphasise more strongly than ever the sensitivity of transmission to adult mosquito mortality, but also suggest the high potential of combinations of interventions including larval source management. This must be done with caution, however, as policy requires a more careful consideration of costs, operational difficulties and policy goals in relation to baseline transmission. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.

Effect of Meat Price on Race and Gender Disparities in Obesity, Mortality and Quality of Life in the US: A Model-Based Analysis

PubMed Central

Pitt, Allison; Bendavid, Eran

2017-01-01

Introduction There are large differences in the burden and health implications of obesity by race and gender in the US. It is unclear to what extent policies modifying caloric consumption change the distribution of the burden of obesity and related health outcomes. Meat is a large component of the American diet. We investigate how changing meat prices (that may result from policies or from exogenous factors that reduce supply) might impact the burden of obesity by race and gender. Methods We construct a microsimulation model that evaluates the 15-year body-mass index (BMI) and mortality impact of changes in meat price (5, 10, 25, and 50% increase) in the US adult population stratified by age, gender, race, and BMI. Results Under each price change evaluated, relative to the status quo, white males, black males, and black females are expected to realize more dramatic reduction in 2030 obesity prevalence than white females. Life expectancy gains are also projected to differ by subpopulation, with black males far less likely to benefit from an increase in meat prices than other groups. Conclusions Changing meat prices has considerable potential to affect population health differently by race and gender. In designing interventions that alter the price of foods to consumers, it is not sufficient to assess health effects based solely on the population as a whole, since differential effects across subpopulations may be substantial. PMID:28045931

Economic and disease burden of breast cancer associated with suboptimal breastfeeding practices in Mexico.

PubMed

Unar-Munguía, Mishel; Meza, Rafael; Colchero, M Arantxa; Torres-Mejía, Gabriela; de Cosío, Teresita Gonzalez

2017-12-01

Exclusive breastfeeding and longer breastfeeding reduce women's breast cancer risk but Mexico has one of the lowest breastfeeding rates worldwide. We estimated the lifetime economic and disease burden of breast cancer in Mexico if 95% of parous women breastfeed each child exclusively for 6 months and continue breastfeeding for over a year. We used a static microsimulation model with a cost-of-illness approach to simulate a cohort of Mexican women. We estimated breast cancer incidence, premature mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), medical costs, and income losses due to breast cancer and extrapolated the results to 1.116 million Mexican women of age 15 in 2012. Costs were expressed in 2015 US dollars and discounted at a 3% annual rate. We estimated that 2,186 premature deaths (95% CI 2,123-2,248), 9,936 breast cancer cases (95% CI 9,651-10,220), 45,109 DALYs (95% CI 43,000-47,217), and $245 million USD (95% CI 234-256) in medical costs and income losses owing to breast cancer could be saved over a cohort's lifetime. Medical costs account for 80% of the economic burden; income losses and opportunity costs for caregivers account for 15 and 5%, respectively. In Mexico, the burden of breast cancer due to suboptimal breastfeeding in women is high in terms of morbidity, premature mortality, and the economic costs for the health sector and society.

Multiple Chronic Health Conditions and Their Link with Labour Force Participation and Economic Status

PubMed Central

Schofield, Deborah J.; Callander, Emily J.; Shrestha, Rupendra N.; Passey, Megan E.; Percival, Richard; Kelly, Simon J.

2013-01-01

Aims To assess the labour force participation and quantify the economic status of older Australian workers with multiple health conditions. Background Many older people suffer from multiple health conditions. While multiple morbidities have been highlighted as an important research topic, there has been limited research in this area to date, particularly on the economic status of those with multiple morbidities. Methods Cross sectional analysis of Health&WealthMOD, a microsimulation model of Australians aged 45 to 64 years. Results People with one chronic health condition had 0.59 times the odds of being employed compared to those with no condition (OR 0.59, 95% CI: 0.49, 0.71), and those with four or more conditions had 0.14 times the odds of being employed compared to those with no condition (OR 0.14, 95% CI: 0.11, 0.18). People with one condition received a weekly income 32% lower than those with no health condition, paid 49 % less tax, and received 37% more in government transfer payments; those with four or more conditions received a weekly income 94% lower, paid 97% less in tax and received over 2,000% more in government transfer payments per week than those with no condition. Conclusion While having a chronic health condition is associated with lower labour force participation and poorer economic status, having multiple conditions compounds the affect – with these people being far less likely to be employed and having drastically lower incomes. PMID:24223887

Effect of Meat Price on Race and Gender Disparities in Obesity, Mortality and Quality of Life in the US: A Model-Based Analysis.

PubMed

Pitt, Allison; Bendavid, Eran

2017-01-01

There are large differences in the burden and health implications of obesity by race and gender in the US. It is unclear to what extent policies modifying caloric consumption change the distribution of the burden of obesity and related health outcomes. Meat is a large component of the American diet. We investigate how changing meat prices (that may result from policies or from exogenous factors that reduce supply) might impact the burden of obesity by race and gender. We construct a microsimulation model that evaluates the 15-year body-mass index (BMI) and mortality impact of changes in meat price (5, 10, 25, and 50% increase) in the US adult population stratified by age, gender, race, and BMI. Under each price change evaluated, relative to the status quo, white males, black males, and black females are expected to realize more dramatic reduction in 2030 obesity prevalence than white females. Life expectancy gains are also projected to differ by subpopulation, with black males far less likely to benefit from an increase in meat prices than other groups. Changing meat prices has considerable potential to affect population health differently by race and gender. In designing interventions that alter the price of foods to consumers, it is not sufficient to assess health effects based solely on the population as a whole, since differential effects across subpopulations may be substantial.

Structure, Function, and Applications of the Georgetown-Einstein (GE) Breast Cancer Simulation Model.

PubMed

Schechter, Clyde B; Near, Aimee M; Jayasekera, Jinani; Chandler, Young; Mandelblatt, Jeanne S

2018-04-01

The Georgetown University-Albert Einstein College of Medicine breast cancer simulation model (Model GE) has evolved over time in structure and function to reflect advances in knowledge about breast cancer, improvements in early detection and treatment technology, and progress in computing resources. This article describes the model and provides examples of model applications. The model is a discrete events microsimulation of single-life histories of women from multiple birth cohorts. Events are simulated in the absence of screening and treatment, and interventions are then applied to assess their impact on population breast cancer trends. The model accommodates differences in natural history associated with estrogen receptor (ER) and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) biomarkers, as well as conventional breast cancer risk factors. The approach for simulating breast cancer natural history is phenomenological, relying on dates, stage, and age of clinical and screen detection for a tumor molecular subtype without explicitly modeling tumor growth. The inputs to the model are regularly updated to reflect current practice. Numerous technical modifications, including the use of object-oriented programming (C++), and more efficient algorithms, along with hardware advances, have increased program efficiency permitting simulations of large samples. The model results consistently match key temporal trends in US breast cancer incidence and mortality. The model has been used in collaboration with other CISNET models to assess cancer control policies and will be applied to evaluate clinical trial design, recurrence risk, and polygenic risk-based screening.

Modeling Dr. Dynasaur 2.0 Coverage and Finance Proposals

PubMed Central

Dick, Andrew W.; Price, Carter C.; Woods, Dulani; Freund, Deborah Anne; McNamara, Martin; Schramm, Steven P.; Berkman, Elrycc; Dehner, Tom

2017-01-01

Abstract The authors assessed an expansion of Vermont's Dr. Dynasaur program that would cover all residents age 25 and younger. The current Dr. Dynasaur program combines Vermont's Medicaid program and Child Health Insurance Program for children ages 0 through 18 to provide a seamless insurance program for those with family incomes below 317 percent of the federal poverty level. The authors used RAND's COMPARE-VT microsimulation model with Vermont-specific demographic, economic, and actuarial data to estimate the effects on health insurance coverage, costs, and premiums. They also identified the new revenues required to fund the program expansion and explored three alternative financing strategies to raise those funds: (1) an increase in the Vermont income tax, (2) a Vermont payroll tax, and (3) a Vermont business enterprise tax. The authors found that enrollment would increase by more than 260 percent under the 100-percent enrollment scenario and by nearly 200 percent under the 70-percent enrollment scenario by 2019. Not surprisingly, the children and young adults who move off employer-sponsored insurance (ESI) and into Dr. Dynasaur 2.0 have considerably lower expected health care costs than those who remain on ESI, increasing the per-person premiums by nearly $1,000 for those remaining enrolled in ESI. Annual health care expenditures per person for children and young adults in 2019 are estimated at $4,325 with Medicare prices. The combination of increased reimbursement rates, large increases in enrollment, and relatively low Dr. Dynasaur premiums (no more than $720 per year) will require significant new tax revenues to meet program obligations. PMID:29057152

Serial testing for latent tuberculosis using QuantiFERON-TB Gold In-Tube: A Markov model

PubMed Central

Moses, Mark W.; Zwerling, Alice; Cattamanchi, Adithya; Denkinger, Claudia M.; Banaei, Niaz; Kik, Sandra V.; Metcalfe, John; Pai, Madhukar; Dowdy, David

2016-01-01

Healthcare workers (HCWs) in low-incidence settings are often serially tested for latent TB infection (LTBI) with the QuantiFERON-TB Gold In-Tube (QFT) assay, which exhibits frequent conversions and reversions. The clinical impact of such variability on serial testing remains unknown. We used a microsimulation Markov model that accounts for major sources of variability to project diagnostic outcomes in a simulated North American HCW cohort. Serial testing using a single QFT with the recommended conversion cutoff (IFN-g > 0.35 IU/mL) resulted in 24.6% (95% uncertainty range, UR: 23.8–25.5) of the entire population testing false-positive over ten years. Raising the cutoff to >1.0 IU/mL or confirming initial positive results with a (presumed independent) second test reduced this false-positive percentage to 2.3% (95%UR: 2.0–2.6%) or 4.1% (95%UR: 3.7–4.5%), but also reduced the proportion of true incident infections detected within the first year of infection from 76.5% (95%UR: 66.3–84.6%) to 54.8% (95%UR: 44.6–64.5%) or 61.5% (95%UR: 51.6–70.9%), respectively. Serial QFT testing of HCWs in North America may result in tremendous over-diagnosis and over-treatment of LTBI, with nearly thirty false-positives for every true infection diagnosed. Using higher cutoffs for conversion or confirmatory tests (for initial positives) can mitigate these effects, but will also diagnose fewer true infections. PMID:27469388

Potential Influence of Advance Care Planning and Palliative Care Consultation on ICU Costs for Patients With Chronic and Serious Illness.

PubMed

Khandelwal, Nita; Benkeser, David C; Coe, Norma B; Curtis, J Randall

2016-08-01

To estimate the potential ICU-related cost savings if in-hospital advance care planning and ICU-based palliative care consultation became standard of care for patients with chronic and serious illness. Decision analysis using literature estimates and inpatient administrative data from Premier. Patients with chronic, life-limiting illness admitted to a hospital within the Premier network. None. Using Premier data (2008-2012), ICU resource utilization and costs were tracked over a 1-year time horizon for 2,097,563 patients with chronic life-limiting illness. Using a Markov microsimulation model, we explored the potential cost savings from the hospital system perspective under a variety of scenarios by varying the interventions' efficacies and availabilities. Of 2,097,563 patients, 657,825 (31%) used the ICU during the 1-year time horizon; mean ICU spending per patient was 11.3k (SD, 17.6k). In the base-case analysis, if in-hospital advance care planning and ICU-based palliative care consultation were systematically provided, we estimated a mean reduction in ICU costs of 2.8k (SD, 14.5k) per patient and an ICU cost saving of 25%. Among the simulated patients who used the ICU, the receipt of both interventions could have resulted in ICU cost savings of 1.9 billion, representing a 6% reduction in total hospital costs for these patients. In-hospital advance care planning and palliative care consultation have the potential to result in significant cost savings. Studies are needed to confirm these findings, but our results provide guidance for hospitals and policymakers.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of mammography and clinical breast examination strategies

PubMed Central

Ahern, Charlotte Hsieh; Shen, Yu

2009-01-01

Purpose Breast cancer screening by mammography and clinical breast exam are commonly used for early tumor detection. Previous cost-effectiveness studies considered mammography alone or did not account for all relevant costs. In this study, we assessed the cost-effectiveness of screening schedules recommended by three major cancer organizations and compared them with alternative strategies. We considered costs of screening examinations, subsequent work-up, biopsy, and treatment interventions after diagnosis. Methods We used a microsimulation model to generate women’s life histories, and assessed screening and treatment impacts on survival. Using statistical models, we accounted for age-specific incidence, preclinical disease duration, and age-specific sensitivity and specificity for each screening modality. The outcomes of interest were quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) saved and total costs with a 3% annual discount rate. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were used to compare strategies. Sensitivity analyses were performed by varying some of the assumptions. Results Compared to guidelines from the National Cancer Institute and the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force, alternative strategies were more efficient. Mammography and clinical breast exam in alternating years from ages 40 to 79 was a cost-effective alternative compared to the guidelines, costing $35,500 per QALY saved compared with no screening. The American Cancer Society guideline was the most effective and the most expensive, costing over $680,000 for an added QALY compared to the above alternative. Conclusion Screening strategies with lower costs and benefits comparable to those currently recommended should be considered for implementation in practice and for future guidelines. PMID:19258473

Cost-effectiveness of population-based, community, workplace and individual policies for diabetes prevention in the UK.

PubMed

Breeze, P R; Thomas, C; Squires, H; Brennan, A; Greaves, C; Diggle, P; Brunner, E; Tabak, A; Preston, L; Chilcott, J

2017-08-01

To analyse the cost-effectiveness of different interventions for Type 2 diabetes prevention within a common framework. A micro-simulation model was developed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of a range of diabetes prevention interventions including: (1) soft drinks taxation; (2) retail policy in socially deprived areas; (3) workplace intervention; (4) community-based intervention; and (5) screening and intensive lifestyle intervention in individuals with high diabetes risk. Within the model, individuals follow metabolic trajectories (for BMI, cholesterol, systolic blood pressure and glycaemia); individuals may develop diabetes, and some may exhibit complications of diabetes and related disorders, including cardiovascular disease, and eventually die. Lifetime healthcare costs, employment costs and quality-adjusted life-years are collected for each person. All interventions generate more life-years and lifetime quality-adjusted life-years and reduce healthcare spending compared with doing nothing. Screening and intensive lifestyle intervention generates greatest lifetime net benefit (£37) but is costly to implement. In comparison, soft drinks taxation or retail policy generate lower net benefit (£11 and £11) but are cost-saving in a shorter time period, preferentially benefit individuals from deprived backgrounds and reduce employer costs. The model enables a wide range of diabetes prevention interventions to be evaluated according to cost-effectiveness, employment and equity impacts over the short and long term, allowing decision-makers to prioritize policies that maximize the expected benefits, as well as fulfilling other policy targets, such as addressing social inequalities. © 2017 The Authors. Diabetic Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Diabetes UK.

Is prostate cancer screening cost-effective? A microsimulation model of prostate-specific antigen-based screening for British Columbia, Canada

PubMed Central

Pataky, Reka; Gulati, Roman; Etzioni, Ruth; Black, Peter; Chi, Kim N.; Coldman, Andrew J.; Pickles, Tom; Tyldesley, Scott; Peacock, Stuart

2015-01-01

Prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening for prostate cancer may reduce mortality, but it incurs considerable risk of overdiagnosis and potential harm to quality of life. Our objective was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of PSA screening, with and without adjustment for quality of life, for the British Columbia (BC) population. We adapted an existing natural history model using BC incidence, treatment, cost and mortality patterns. The modeled mortality benefit of screening derives from a stage-shift mechanism, assuming mortality reduction consistent with the European Study of Randomized Screening for Prostate Cancer. The model projected outcomes for 40 year-old men under 14 combinations of screening ages and frequencies. Cost and utility estimates were explored with deterministic sensitivity analysis. The incremental cost-effectiveness of regular screening ranged from $36,300/LYG, for screening every four years from ages 55-69, to $588,300/LYG, for screening every two years from ages 40-74. The marginal benefits of increasing screening frequency to two years or starting screening at age 40 were small and came at significant cost. After utility adjustment, all screening strategies resulted in a loss of QALYs; however, this result was very sensitive to utility estimates. Plausible outcomes under a range of screening strategies inform discussion of prostate cancer screening policy in BC and similar jurisdictions. Screening may be cost-effective but the sensitivity of results to utility values suggests individual preferences for quality versus quantity of life should be a key consideration. PMID:24443367

Multiple chronic health conditions and their link with wealth assets.

PubMed

Schofield, Deborah J; Callander, Emily J; Shrestha, Rupendra N; Passey, Megan E; Kelly, Simon J; Percival, Richard

2015-04-01

There has been little research on the economic status of those with multiple health conditions, particularly on the relationship between multiple health conditions and wealth. This paper will assess the difference in the value and type of wealth assets held by Australians who have multiple chronic health conditions. Using Health&WealthMOD, a microsimulation model of the 45-64-year-old Australian population in 2009, a counterfactual analysis was undertaken. The actual proportion of people with different numbers of chronic health conditions with any wealth, and the value of this wealth was estimated. This was compared with the counterfactual values had the individuals had no chronic health conditions. There was no change in the proportion of people with one health condition who actually had any wealth, compared to the counterfactual proportion had they had no chronic health conditions. Ninety-four percent of those with four or more health conditions had some accumulated wealth; however, under the counterfactual, 100% would have had some accumulated wealth. There was little change in the value of non-income-producing assets under the counterfactual, regardless of number of health conditions. Those with four or more chronic health conditions had a mean value of $17 000 in income-producing assets; under the counterfactual, the average would have been $78 000. This study has highlighted the variation in the value of wealth according to number of chronic health conditions, and hence the importance of considering multiple morbidities when discussing the relationship between health and wealth. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association. All rights reserved.

Changing the balance of social care for older people: simulating scenarios under demographic ageing in New Zealand.

PubMed

Lay-Yee, Roy; Pearson, Janet; Davis, Peter; von Randow, Martin; Kerse, Ngaire; Brown, Laurie

2017-05-01

The demographic ageing of New Zealand society, as elsewhere in the developed world, has dramatically increased the proportion of older people (aged 65 years and over) in the population. This has major policy implications for the future organisation of social care. Our objective was to test the effects on social care use, first, of putative changes in the overall disability profile of older people, and second, of alterations to the balance of their care, i.e. whether it was community-based or residential. In order to undertake these experiments, we developed a microsimulation model of the later life course using individual-level data from two official national survey series on health and disability, respectively, to generate a synthetic version which replicated original data and parameter settings. A baseline projection under current settings from 2001 to 2021 showed moderate increases in disability and associated social care use. Artificially decreasing disability levels, below the baseline projection, only moderately reduced the use of community care (both informal and formal). Scenarios implemented by rebalancing towards informal care use moderately reduced formal care use. However, only moderate compensatory increases in community-based care were required to markedly decrease the transition to residential care. The disability impact of demographic ageing may not have a major negative effect on system resources in developed countries like New Zealand. As well as healthy ageing, changing the balance of social care may alleviate the impact of increasing demand due to an expanding population of older people. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Colorectal cancer screening: Estimated future colonoscopy need and current volume and capacity.

PubMed

Joseph, Djenaba A; Meester, Reinier G S; Zauber, Ann G; Manninen, Diane L; Winges, Linda; Dong, Fred B; Peaker, Brandy; van Ballegooijen, Marjolein

2016-08-15

In 2014, a national campaign was launched to increase colorectal cancer (CRC) screening rates in the United States to 80% by 2018; it is unknown whether there is sufficient colonoscopy capacity to reach this goal. This study estimated the number of colonoscopies needed to screen 80% of the eligible population with fecal immunochemical testing (FIT) or colonoscopy and determined whether there was sufficient colonoscopy capacity to meet the need. The Microsimulation Screening Analysis-Colon model was used to simulate CRC screening test use in the United States (2014-2040); the implementation of a national screening program in 2014 with FIT or colonoscopy with 80% participation was assumed. The 2012 Survey of Endoscopic Capacity (SECAP) estimated the number of colonoscopies that were performed and the number that could be performed. If a national screening program started in 2014, by 2024, approximately 47 million FIT procedures and 5.1 million colonoscopies would be needed annually to screen the eligible population with a program using FIT as the primary screening test; approximately 11 to 13 million colonoscopies would be needed annually to screen the eligible population with a colonoscopy-only screening program. According to the SECAP survey, an estimated 15 million colonoscopies were performed in 2012, and an additional 10.5 million colonoscopies could be performed. The estimated colonoscopy capacity is sufficient to screen 80% of the eligible US population with FIT, colonoscopy, or a mix of tests. Future analyses should take into account the geographic distribution of colonoscopy capacity. Cancer 2016;122:2479-86. © 2016 American Cancer Society. © 2016 American Cancer Society.

Preventing and Treating Peri-Implantitis: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.

PubMed

Schwendicke, Falk; Tu, Yu-Kang; Stolpe, Michael

2015-09-01

A large number of treatments for peri-implantitis are available, but their cost-effectiveness remains uncertain. This study evaluates the cost-effectiveness of preventing and treating peri-implantitis. A Markov model was constructed that followed each implant over 20 years. Supportive implant therapy (SIT) for managing peri-implant mucositis and preventing development of peri-implantitis was either provided or not. Risk of peri-implantitis was assumed to be affected by SIT and the patient's risk profile. If peri-implantitis occurred, 11 treatment strategies (non-surgical or surgical debridement alone or combined with adjunct therapies) were compared. Treatments and risk profiles determined disease progression. Modeling was performed based on systematically collected data. Primary outcomes were costs and proportion of lost implants, as assessed via Monte Carlo microsimulations. Not providing SIT and performing only non-surgical debridement was both least costly and least effective. The next best (more costly and effective) option was to provide SIT and perform surgical debridement (additional 0.89 euros per 1% fewer implants lost). The most effective option included bone grafts, membranes, and laser treatment (56 euros per 1%). For patients at high risk, the cost-effectiveness of SIT increased, whereas in low-risk groups, a cost-optimized strategy was cost-effective. Although clinical decision-making will be guided mainly by clinical condition, cost-effectiveness analyses might add another perspective. Based on these findings, an unambiguous comparative effectiveness ranking was not established. However, cost-effectiveness was predominantly determined by provision of SIT and initial treatment costs. Transferability of these findings to other healthcare systems needs further confirmation.

African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control 1995–2015: Model-Estimated Health Impact and Cost

PubMed Central

Coffeng, Luc E.; Stolk, Wilma A.; Zouré, Honorat G. M.; Veerman, J. Lennert; Agblewonu, Koffi B.; Murdoch, Michele E.; Noma, Mounkaila; Fobi, Grace; Richardus, Jan Hendrik; Bundy, Donald A. P.; Habbema, Dik; de Vlas, Sake J.; Amazigo, Uche V.

2013-01-01

Background Onchocerciasis causes a considerable disease burden in Africa, mainly through skin and eye disease. Since 1995, the African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control (APOC) has coordinated annual mass treatment with ivermectin in 16 countries. In this study, we estimate the health impact of APOC and the associated costs from a program perspective up to 2010 and provide expected trends up to 2015. Methods and Findings With data on pre-control prevalence of infection and population coverage of mass treatment, we simulated trends in infection, blindness, visual impairment, and severe itch using the micro-simulation model ONCHOSIM, and estimated disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost due to onchocerciasis. We assessed financial costs for APOC, beneficiary governments, and non-governmental development organizations, excluding cost of donated drugs. We estimated that between 1995 and 2010, mass treatment with ivermectin averted 8.2 million DALYs due to onchocerciasis in APOC areas, at a nominal cost of about US$257 million. We expect that APOC will avert another 9.2 million DALYs between 2011 and 2015, at a nominal cost of US$221 million. Conclusions Our simulations suggest that APOC has had a remarkable impact on population health in Africa between 1995 and 2010. This health impact is predicted to double during the subsequent five years of the program, through to 2015. APOC is a highly cost-effective public health program. Given the anticipated elimination of onchocerciasis from some APOC areas, we expect even more health gains and a more favorable cost-effectiveness of mass treatment with ivermectin in the near future. PMID:23383355

African Programme For Onchocerciasis Control 1995-2015: model-estimated health impact and cost.

PubMed

Coffeng, Luc E; Stolk, Wilma A; Zouré, Honorat G M; Veerman, J Lennert; Agblewonu, Koffi B; Murdoch, Michele E; Noma, Mounkaila; Fobi, Grace; Richardus, Jan Hendrik; Bundy, Donald A P; Habbema, Dik; de Vlas, Sake J; Amazigo, Uche V

2013-01-01

Onchocerciasis causes a considerable disease burden in Africa, mainly through skin and eye disease. Since 1995, the African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control (APOC) has coordinated annual mass treatment with ivermectin in 16 countries. In this study, we estimate the health impact of APOC and the associated costs from a program perspective up to 2010 and provide expected trends up to 2015. With data on pre-control prevalence of infection and population coverage of mass treatment, we simulated trends in infection, blindness, visual impairment, and severe itch using the micro-simulation model ONCHOSIM, and estimated disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost due to onchocerciasis. We assessed financial costs for APOC, beneficiary governments, and non-governmental development organizations, excluding cost of donated drugs. We estimated that between 1995 and 2010, mass treatment with ivermectin averted 8.2 million DALYs due to onchocerciasis in APOC areas, at a nominal cost of about US$257 million. We expect that APOC will avert another 9.2 million DALYs between 2011 and 2015, at a nominal cost of US$221 million. Our simulations suggest that APOC has had a remarkable impact on population health in Africa between 1995 and 2010. This health impact is predicted to double during the subsequent five years of the program, through to 2015. APOC is a highly cost-effective public health program. Given the anticipated elimination of onchocerciasis from some APOC areas, we expect even more health gains and a more favorable cost-effectiveness of mass treatment with ivermectin in the near future.

Updated Priorities Among Effective Clinical Preventive Services

PubMed Central

Maciosek, Michael V.; LaFrance, Amy B.; Dehmer, Steven P.; McGree, Dana A.; Flottemesch, Thomas J.; Xu, Zack; Solberg, Leif I.

2017-01-01

PURPOSE The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act’s provisions for first-dollar coverage of evidence-based preventive services have reduced an important barrier to receipt of preventive care. Safety-net providers, however, still serve a substantial uninsured population, and clinician and patient time remain limited in all primary care settings. As a consequence, decision makers continue to set priorities to help focus their efforts. This report updates estimates of relative health impact and cost-effectiveness for evidence-based preventive services. METHODS We assessed the potential impact of 28 evidence-based clinical preventive services in terms of their cost-effectiveness and clinically preventable burden, as measured by quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) saved. Each service received 1 to 5 points on each of the 2 measures—cost-effectiveness and clinically preventable burden—for a total score ranging from 2 to 10. New microsimulation models were used to provide updated estimates of 12 of these services. Priorities for improving delivery rates were established by comparing the ranking with what is known of current delivery rates nationally. RESULTS The 3 highest-ranking services, each with a total score of 10, are immunizing children, counseling to prevent tobacco initiation among youth, and tobacco-use screening and brief intervention to encourage cessation among adults. Greatest population health improvement could be obtained from increasing utilization of clinical preventive services that address tobacco use, obesity-related behaviors, and alcohol misuse, as well as colorectal cancer screening and influenza vaccinations. CONCLUSIONS This study identifies high-priority preventive services and should help decision makers select which services to emphasize in quality-improvement initiatives. PMID:28376457

MobRISK: a model for assessing the exposure of road users to flash flood events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shabou, Saif; Ruin, Isabelle; Lutoff, Céline; Debionne, Samuel; Anquetin, Sandrine; Creutin, Jean-Dominique; Beaufils, Xavier

2017-09-01

Recent flash flood impact studies highlight that road networks are often disrupted due to adverse weather and flash flood events. Road users are thus particularly exposed to road flooding during their daily mobility. Previous exposure studies, however, do not take into consideration population mobility. Recent advances in transportation research provide an appropriate framework for simulating individual travel-activity patterns using an activity-based approach. These activity-based mobility models enable the prediction of the sequence of activities performed by individuals and locating them with a high spatial-temporal resolution. This paper describes the development of the MobRISK microsimulation system: a model for assessing the exposure of road users to extreme hydrometeorological events. MobRISK aims at providing an accurate spatiotemporal exposure assessment by integrating travel-activity behaviors and mobility adaptation with respect to weather disruptions. The model is applied in a flash-flood-prone area in southern France to assess motorists' exposure to the September 2002 flash flood event. The results show that risk of flooding mainly occurs in principal road links with considerable traffic load. However, a lag time between the timing of the road submersion and persons crossing these roads contributes to reducing the potential vehicle-related fatal accidents. It is also found that sociodemographic variables have a significant effect on individual exposure. Thus, the proposed model demonstrates the benefits of considering spatiotemporal dynamics of population exposure to flash floods and presents an important improvement in exposure assessment methods. Such improved characterization of road user exposures can present valuable information for flood risk management services.

A Comparison of Two Mathematical Modeling Frameworks for Evaluating Sexually Transmitted Infection Epidemiology.

PubMed

Johnson, Leigh F; Geffen, Nathan

2016-03-01

Different models of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) can yield substantially different conclusions about STI epidemiology, and it is important to understand how and why models differ. Frequency-dependent models make the simplifying assumption that STI incidence is proportional to STI prevalence in the population, whereas network models calculate STI incidence more realistically by classifying individuals according to their partners' STI status. We assessed a deterministic frequency-dependent model approximation to a microsimulation network model of STIs in South Africa. Sexual behavior and demographic parameters were identical in the 2 models. Six STIs were simulated using each model: HIV, herpes, syphilis, gonorrhea, chlamydia, and trichomoniasis. For all 6 STIs, the frequency-dependent model estimated a higher STI prevalence than the network model, with the difference between the 2 models being relatively large for the curable STIs. When the 2 models were fitted to the same STI prevalence data, the best-fitting parameters differed substantially between models, with the frequency-dependent model suggesting more immunity and lower transmission probabilities. The fitted frequency-dependent model estimated that the effects of a hypothetical elimination of concurrent partnerships and a reduction in commercial sex were both smaller than estimated by the fitted network model, whereas the latter model estimated a smaller impact of a reduction in unprotected sex in spousal relationships. The frequency-dependent assumption is problematic when modeling short-term STIs. Frequency-dependent models tend to underestimate the importance of high-risk groups in sustaining STI epidemics, while overestimating the importance of long-term partnerships and low-risk groups.

The Canadian National Retirement Risk Index: employing statistics Canada's LifePaths to measure the financial security of future Canadian seniors.

PubMed

MacDonald, Bonnie-Jeanne; Moore, Kevin D; Chen, He; Brown, Robert L

2011-01-01

This article measures a Canadian National Retirement Risk Index (NRRI). Originally developed by the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College, the NRRI is a forward-looking measure that evaluates the proportion of working-aged individuals who are at risk of not maintaining their standard of living in retirement. The Canadian retirement income system has been very effective in reducing elderly poverty, but our results suggest that it has been much less successful in maintaining the living standards of Canadians after retirement. Since the earlier years of the new millennium, we find that approximately one-third of retiring Canadians have been unable to maintain their working-age consumption after retirement—a trend that is projected to worsen significantly for future Canadian retirees. The release of the Canadian NRRI is timely given the widespread concern that the current Canadian retirement income system is inadequate. Many proposals have recently emerged to extend and/or enhance Canadian public pensions, and the NRRI is a tool to test their merit. The methodology underlying the Canadian NRRI is uniquely sophisticated and comprehensive on account of our employment of Statistics Canada’s LifePaths, a state-of-the-art stochastic microsimulation model of the Canadian population. For instance, the Canadian NRRI is novel in that it models all of the relevant sources of consumption before and after retirement, while accounting for important features that are typically neglected in retirement adequacy studies such as family size, the variation of consumption over a person’s lifetime, and the heterogeneity among the life courses of individuals.

At what costs will screening with CT colonography be competitive? A cost-effectiveness approach.

PubMed

Lansdorp-Vogelaar, Iris; van Ballegooijen, Marjolein; Zauber, Ann G; Boer, Rob; Wilschut, Janneke; Habbema, J Dik F

2009-03-01

The costs of computed tomographic colonography (CTC) are not yet established for screening use. In our study, we estimated the threshold costs for which CTC screening would be a cost-effective alternative to colonoscopy for colorectal cancer (CRC) screening in the general population. We used the MISCAN-colon microsimulation model to estimate the costs and life-years gained of screening persons aged 50-80 years for 4 screening strategies: (i) optical colonoscopy; and CTC with referral to optical colonoscopy of (ii) any suspected polyp; (iii) a suspected polyp >or=6 mm and (iv) a suspected polyp >or=10 mm. For each of the 4 strategies, screen intervals of 5, 10, 15 and 20 years were considered. Subsequently, for each CTC strategy and interval, the threshold costs of CTC were calculated. We performed a sensitivity analysis to assess the effect of uncertain model parameters on the threshold costs. With equal costs ($662), optical colonoscopy dominated CTC screening. For CTC to gain similar life-years as colonoscopy screening every 10 years, it should be offered every 5 years with referral of polyps >or=6 mm. For this strategy to be as cost-effective as colonoscopy screening, the costs must not exceed $285 or 43% of colonoscopy costs (range in sensitivity analysis: 39-47%). With 25% higher adherence than colonoscopy, CTC threshold costs could be 71% of colonoscopy costs. Our estimate of 43% is considerably lower than previous estimates in literature, because previous studies only compared CTC screening to 10-yearly colonoscopy, where we compared to different intervals of colonoscopy screening.

Liquid-based cervical cytology using ThinPrep technology: weighing the pros and cons in a cost-effectiveness analysis.

PubMed

de Bekker-Grob, Esther W; de Kok, Inge M C M; Bulten, Johan; van Rosmalen, Joost; Vedder, Judith E M; Arbyn, Marc; Klinkhamer, Paul J J M; Siebers, Albertus G; van Ballegooijen, Marjolein

2012-08-01

Cervical cancer screening with liquid-based cytology (LBC) has been developed as an alternative to the conventional Papanicolaou (CP) smear. Cost-effectiveness is one of the issues when evaluating LBC. Based on the results of a Dutch randomised controlled trial, we conducted cost-effectiveness threshold analyses to investigate under what circumstances manually screened ThinPrep LBC is cost-effective for screening. The MISCAN-Cervix microsimulation model and data from the Dutch NETHCON trial (including 89,784 women) were used to estimate the costs and (quality-adjusted) life years ((QA)LYs) gained for EU screening schedules, varying cost-effectiveness threshold values. Screening strategies were primary cytological screening with LBC or CP, and triage with human papillomavirus (HPV) testing. Threshold analyses showed that screening with LBC as a primary test can be cost-effective if LBC is less than 3.2 more costly per test than CP, if the sensitivity of LBC is at least 3-5 % points higher than CP, if the quality of life for women in triage follow-up is only 0.39, or if the rate of inadequate CP smears is at least 16.2 %. Regarding test characteristics and costs of LBC and CP, only under certain conditions will a change from CP to manually screened ThinPrep LBC be cost-effective. If none of these conditions are met, implementation of manually screened ThinPrep LBC seems warranted only if there are advantages other than cost-effectiveness. Further research is needed to establish whether other LBC systems will be more favorable with regard to cost-effectiveness.

Socioeconomic impact assessment in ex ante evaluations: a case study on the rural development programs of the European Union.

PubMed

Vidueira, Pablo; Díaz-Puente, José M; Rivera, María

2014-08-01

Ex ante impact assessment has become a fundamental tool for effective program management, and thus, a compulsory task when establishing a new program in the European Union (EU). This article aims to analyze benefits from ex ante impact assessment, methodologies followed, and difficulties encountered. This is done through the case study on the rural development programs (RDPs) in the EU. Results regarding methodologies are then contrasted with the international context in order to provide solid insights to evaluators and program managing authorities facing ex ante impact assessment. All European RDPs from the period 2007 through 2013 (a total of 88) and their corresponding available ex ante evaluations (a total of 70) were analyzed focusing on the socioeconomic impact assessment. Only 46.6% of the regions provide quantified impact estimations on socioeconomic impacts in spite of it being a compulsory task demanded by the European Commission (EC). Recommended methods by the EC are mostly used, but there is a lack of mixed method approaches since qualitative methods are used in substitution of quantitative ones. Two main difficulties argued were the complexity of program impacts and the lack of needed program information. Qualitative approaches on their own have been found as not suitable for ex ante impact assessment, while quantitative approaches-such as microsimulation models-provide a good approximation to actual impacts. However, time and budgetary constraints make that quantitative and mixed methods should be mainly applied on the most relevant impacts for the program success. © The Author(s) 2014.

Early retirement and the financial assets of individuals with back problems.

PubMed

Schofield, Deborah J; Shrestha, Rupendra N; Percival, Richard; Callander, Emily J; Kelly, Simon J; Passey, Megan E

2011-05-01

This paper quantifies the relationship between early retirement due to back problems and wealth, and contributes to a more complete picture of the full costs associated with back problems. The output data set of the microsimulation model Health&WealthMOD was analysed. Health&WealthMOD was specifically designed to measure the economic impacts of ill health on Australian workers aged 45-64 years. People aged 45-64 years who are out of the labour force due to back problems have significantly less chance of having any accumulated wealth. While almost all individuals who are in full-time employment with no chronic health condition have some wealth accumulated, a significantly smaller proportion (89%) of those who have retired early due to back problems do. Of those who have retired early due to back problems who do have some wealth, on average the total value of this wealth is 87% less (95% CI: -90 to -84%) than the total value of wealth accumulated by those who have remained in full-time employment with no health condition controlling for age, sex and education. The financial burden placed on those retiring early due to back problems is likely to cause financial stress in the future, as not only have retired individuals lost an income stream from paid employment, but they also have little or no wealth to draw upon. Preventing early retirement due to back problems will increase the time individuals will have to amass savings to finance their retirement and to protect against financial shocks.

Obesity prevalence in Mexico: impact on health and economic burden.

PubMed

Rtveladze, Ketevan; Marsh, Tim; Barquera, Simon; Sanchez Romero, Luz Maria; Levy, David; Melendez, Guillermo; Webber, Laura; Kilpi, Fanny; McPherson, Klim; Brown, Martin

2014-01-01

Along with other countries having high and low-to-middle income, Mexico has experienced a substantial change in obesity rates. This rapid growth in obesity prevalence has led to high rates of obesity-related diseases and associated health-care costs. Micro-simulation is used to project future BMI trends. Additionally thirteen BMI-related diseases and health-care costs are estimated. The results are simulated for three hypothetical scenarios: no BMI reduction and BMI reductions of 1 % and 5 % across the population. Mexican Health and Nutrition Surveys 1999 and 2000, and Mexican National Health and Nutrition Survey 2006. Mexican adults. In 2010, 32 % of men and 26 % of women were normal weight. By 2050, the proportion of normal weight will decrease to 12 % and 9 % for males and females respectively, and more people will be obese than overweight. It is projected that by 2050 there will be 12 million cumulative incidence cases of diabetes and 8 million cumulative incidence cases of heart disease alone. For the thirteen diseases considered, costs of $US 806 million are estimated for 2010, projected to increase to $US 1·2 billion and $US 1·7 billion in 2030 and 2050 respectively. A 1 % reduction in BMI prevalence could save $US 43 million in health-care costs in 2030 and $US 85 million in 2050. Obesity rates are leading to a large health and economic burden. The projected numbers are high and Mexico should implement strong action to tackle obesity. Results presented here will be very helpful in planning and implementing policy interventions.

onlineDeCISion.org: a web-based decision aid for DCIS treatment.

PubMed

Ozanne, Elissa M; Schneider, Katharine H; Soeteman, Djøra; Stout, Natasha; Schrag, Deborah; Fordis, Michael; Punglia, Rinaa S

2015-11-01

Women diagnosed with DCIS face complex treatment decisions and often do so with inaccurate and incomplete understanding of the risks and benefits involved. Our objective was to create a tool to guide these decisions for both providers and patients. We developed a web-based decision aid designed to provide clinicians with tailored information about a patient’s recurrence risks and survival outcomes following different treatment strategies for DCIS. A theoretical framework, microsimulation model (Soeteman et al., J Natl Cancer 105:774–781, 2013) and best practices for web-based decision tools guided the development of the decision aid. The development process used semi-structured interviews and usability testing with key stakeholders, including a diverse group of multidisciplinary clinicians and a patient advocate. We developed onlineDeCISion.​org to include the following features that were rated as important by the stakeholders: (1) descriptions of each of the standard treatment options available; (2) visual projections of the likelihood of time-specific (10-year and lifetime) breast-preservation, recurrence, and survival outcomes; and (3) side-by-side comparisons of down-stream effects of each treatment choice. All clinicians reviewing the decision aid in usability testing were interested in using it in their clinical practice. The decision aid is available in a web-based format and is planned to be publicly available. To improve treatment decision making in patients with DCIS, we have developed a web-based decision aid onlineDeCISion.​org that conforms to best practices and that clinicians are interested in using in their clinics with patients to better inform treatment decisions.

Distribution of malaria exposure in endemic countries in Africa considering country levels of effective treatment.

PubMed

Penny, Melissa A; Maire, Nicolas; Bever, Caitlin A; Pemberton-Ross, Peter; Briët, Olivier J T; Smith, David L; Gething, Peter W; Smith, Thomas A

2015-10-05

Malaria prevalence, clinical incidence, treatment, and transmission rates are dynamically interrelated. Prevalence is often considered a measure of malaria transmission, but treatment of clinical malaria reduces prevalence, and consequently also infectiousness to the mosquito vector and onward transmission. The impact of the frequency of treatment on prevalence in a population is generally not considered. This can lead to potential underestimation of malaria exposure in settings with good health systems. Furthermore, these dynamical relationships between prevalence, treatment, and transmission have not generally been taken into account in estimates of burden. Using prevalence as an input, estimates of disease incidence and transmission [as the distribution of the entomological inoculation rate (EIR)] for Plasmodium falciparum have now been made for 43 countries in Africa using both empirical relationships (that do not allow for treatment) and OpenMalaria dynamic micro-simulation models (that explicitly include the effects of treatment). For each estimate, prevalence inputs were taken from geo-statistical models fitted for the year 2010 by the Malaria Atlas Project to all available observed prevalence data. National level estimates of the effectiveness of case management in treating clinical attacks were used as inputs to the estimation of both EIR and disease incidence by the dynamic models. When coverage of effective treatment is taken into account, higher country level estimates of average EIR and thus higher disease burden, are obtained for a given prevalence level, especially where access to treatment is high, and prevalence relatively low. These methods provide a unified framework for comparison of both the immediate and longer-term impacts of case management and of preventive interventions.

Productivity Savings from Colorectal Cancer Prevention and Control Strategies

PubMed Central

Bradley, Cathy J.; Lansdorp-Vogelaar, Iris; Yabroff, K. Robin; Dahman, Bassam; Mariotto, Angela; Feuer, Eric J.; Brown, Martin L.

2011-01-01

Background Lost productivity represents a considerable portion of the total economic burden of colorectal cancer (CRC), but cost-effectiveness studies of CRC prevention and control have not included these costs and therefore underestimate potential savings from CRC prevention and control. Purpose To use microsimulation modeling study to estimate and project productivity costs of CRC and to model the savings from four approaches to reducing CRC incidence and mortality: risk factor reduction, improved screening, improved treatment, and a simultaneous approach where all three strategies are implemented. Methods A model was developed to project productivity losses from CRC using the U.S. population with CRC incidence and mortality projected through the year 2020. Outcome measures were CRC mortality, morbidity, and productivity savings. Results With 2005 levels in risk factors, screening, and treatment, 48,748 CRC deaths occurred in 2010, amounting to $21 billion of lost productivity. Using prevention and treatment strategies simultaneously, 3586 deaths could have been avoided in 2010, leading to a savings of $1.4 billion. Cumulatively, by 2020, simultaneous strategies that reduce risk factors and increase screening and treatment could result in 101,353 deaths avoided and $33.9 billion in savings in reduced productivity loss. Improved screening rates alone led to nearly $14.7 billion in savings between 2005 and 2020, followed by risk factor reduction ($12.4 billion) and improved treatment ($8.4 billion). Conclusions The savings in productivity loss from strategies to reduce CRC incidence and mortality are substantial, providing evidence that CRC prevention and control strategies are likely to be cost-saving. PMID:21767717

Bringing consistency to simulation of population models--Poisson simulation as a bridge between micro and macro simulation.

PubMed

Gustafsson, Leif; Sternad, Mikael

2007-10-01

Population models concern collections of discrete entities such as atoms, cells, humans, animals, etc., where the focus is on the number of entities in a population. Because of the complexity of such models, simulation is usually needed to reproduce their complete dynamic and stochastic behaviour. Two main types of simulation models are used for different purposes, namely micro-simulation models, where each individual is described with its particular attributes and behaviour, and macro-simulation models based on stochastic differential equations, where the population is described in aggregated terms by the number of individuals in different states. Consistency between micro- and macro-models is a crucial but often neglected aspect. This paper demonstrates how the Poisson Simulation technique can be used to produce a population macro-model consistent with the corresponding micro-model. This is accomplished by defining Poisson Simulation in strictly mathematical terms as a series of Poisson processes that generate sequences of Poisson distributions with dynamically varying parameters. The method can be applied to any population model. It provides the unique stochastic and dynamic macro-model consistent with a correct micro-model. The paper also presents a general macro form for stochastic and dynamic population models. In an appendix Poisson Simulation is compared with Markov Simulation showing a number of advantages. Especially aggregation into state variables and aggregation of many events per time-step makes Poisson Simulation orders of magnitude faster than Markov Simulation. Furthermore, you can build and execute much larger and more complicated models with Poisson Simulation than is possible with the Markov approach.

A Comparison of Strategies for Retinopathy of Prematurity Detection

PubMed Central

Prosser, Lisa A.; Wade, Kelly C.; Repka, Michael X.; Ying, Gui-shuang; Baumritter, Agnieshka; Quinn, Graham E.

2016-01-01

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Delayed detection of type 1 retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) can lead to permanent visual impairment. Providing ROP examinations is challenging because of the limited ophthalmology workforce. This study compares digital imaging–based ROP detection strategies versus serial ROP examinations. METHODS: We conducted an individual-level microsimulation studyof a hypothetical cohort of 650 infants with gestational age from 23 to 30 weeks. Infants were evaluated by using strategies based on indirect ophthalmoscopy or digital imaging beginning at 32 weeks’ postmenstrual age (PMA) and continuing to discharge, transfer, or 40 weeks’ PMA. ROP status and the accuracy of digital imaging were based on the e-ROP (Telemedicine Approaches to Evaluating Acute-Phase ROP) study, which enrolled high-risk infants. RESULTS: Within the hypothetical NICU, the strategy of ROP examinations identified an average of 45.8 cases of type 1 ROP by discharge, transfer, or 40 weeks’ PMA, and another 1.9 cases were included in the group of infants recommended to have later follow-up. Digital imaging with an ROP examination at discharge identified all 47.7 cases of type 1 ROP. On average, the ROP examination–only strategy required 1745.7 ROP examinations, whereas digital imaging with a discharge examination required 1065.5 ROP examinations and 1786.2 digital imaging sessions. CONCLUSIONS: Although digital imaging decreased the number of ROP examinations per infant, there was an increase in the total number of interventions (ie, ROP examinations and imaging sessions). Providing an ROP examination at the time of NICU discharge can significantly reduce the number of infants who require follow-up. PMID:26672022

Productivity savings from colorectal cancer prevention and control strategies.

PubMed

Bradley, Cathy J; Lansdorp-Vogelaar, Iris; Yabroff, K Robin; Dahman, Bassam; Mariotto, Angela; Feuer, Eric J; Brown, Martin L

2011-08-01

Lost productivity represents a considerable portion of the total economic burden of colorectal cancer (CRC), but cost-effectiveness studies of CRC prevention and control have not included these costs and therefore underestimate potential savings from CRC prevention and control. To use microsimulation modeling study to estimate and project productivity costs of CRC and to model the savings from four approaches to reducing CRC incidence and mortality: risk factor reduction, improved screening, improved treatment, and a simultaneous approach where all three strategies are implemented. A model was developed to project productivity losses from CRC using the U.S. population with CRC incidence and mortality projected through the year 2020. Outcome measures were CRC mortality, morbidity, and productivity savings. With 2005 levels in risk factors, screening, and treatment, 48,748 CRC deaths occurred in 2010, amounting to $21 billion of lost productivity. Using prevention and treatment strategies simultaneously, 3586 deaths could have been avoided in 2010, leading to a savings of $1.4 billion. Cumulatively, by 2020, simultaneous strategies that reduce risk factors and increase screening and treatment could result in 101,353 deaths avoided and $33.9 billion in savings in reduced productivity loss. Improved screening rates alone led to nearly $14.7 billion in savings between 2005 and 2020, followed by risk factor reduction ($12.4 billion) and improved treatment ($8.4 billion). The savings in productivity loss from strategies to reduce CRC incidence and mortality are substantial, providing evidence that CRC prevention and control strategies are likely to be cost-saving. Copyright © 2011 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. All rights reserved.

Acute HIV infection transmission among people who inject drugs in a mature epidemic setting.

PubMed

Escudero, Daniel J; Lurie, Mark N; Mayer, Kenneth H; Weinreb, Caleb; King, Maximilian; Galea, Sandro; Friedman, Samuel R; Marshall, Brandon D L

2016-10-23

Estimates for the contribution of transmission arising from acute HIV infections (AHIs) to overall HIV incidence vary significantly. Furthermore, little is known about AHI-attributable transmission among people who inject drugs (PWID), including the extent to which interventions targeting chronic infections (e.g. HAART as prevention) are limited by AHI transmission. Thus, we estimated the proportion of transmission events attributable to AHI within the mature HIV epidemic among PWID in New York City (NYC). Modeling study. We constructed an interactive sexual and injecting transmission network using an agent-based model simulating the HIV epidemic in NYC between 1996 and 2012. Using stochastic microsimulations, we cataloged transmission from PWID based on the disease stage of index agents to determine the proportion of infections transmitted during AHI (in primary analyses, assumed to last 3 months). Our calibrated model approximated the epidemiological features of the mature HIV epidemic in NYC between 1996 and 2012. Annual HIV incidence among PWID dropped from approximately 1.8% in 1996 to 0.7% in 2012. Over the 16-year period, AHI accounted for 4.9% (10th/90th percentile: 0.1-12.3%) of incident HIV cases among PWID. The annualized contribution of AHI increased over this period from 3.6% in 1996 to 5.9% in 2012. Our results suggest that, in mature epidemics such as NYC, between 3% and 6% of transmission events are attributable to AHI among PWID. Current HIV treatment as prevention strategies are unlikely to be substantially affected by AHI-attributable transmission among PWID populations in mature epidemic settings.

To expand coverage, or increase frequency: Quantifying the tradeoffs between equity and efficiency facing cervical cancer screening programs in low‐resource settings

PubMed Central

Tsu, Vivien; Jeronimo, Jose; Mvundura, Mercy; Lee, Kyueun; Kim, Jane J.

2017-01-01

Cervical cancer is a leading cause of cancer death worldwide, with 85% of the disease burden residing in less developed regions. To inform evidence‐based decision‐making as cervical cancer screening programs are planned, implemented, and scaled in low‐ and middle‐income countries, we used cost and test performance data from the START‐UP demonstration project in Uganda and a microsimulation model of HPV infection and cervical carcinogenesis to quantify the health benefits, distributional equity, cost‐effectiveness, and financial impact of either (1) improving access to cervical cancer screening or (2) increasing the number of lifetime screening opportunities for women who already have access. We found that when baseline screening coverage was low (i.e., 30%), expanding coverage of screening once in a lifetime to 50% can yield comparable reductions in cancer risk to screening two or three times in a lifetime at 30% coverage, lead to greater reductions in health disparities, and cost 150 international dollars (I$) per year of life saved (YLS). At higher baseline screening coverage levels (i.e., 70%), screening three times in a lifetime yielded greater health benefits than expanding screening once in a lifetime to 90% coverage, and would have a cost‐effectiveness ratio (I$590 per YLS) below Uganda's per capita GDP. Given very low baseline coverage at present, we conclude that a policy focus on increasing access for previously unscreened women appears to be more compatible with improving both equity and efficiency than a focus on increasing frequency for a small subset of women. PMID:27925175

The long term financial impacts of CVD: living standards in retirement.

PubMed

Schofield, Deborah; Kelly, Simon; Shrestha, Rupendra; Passey, Megan; Callander, Emily; Percival, Richard

2012-03-22

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) has significant economic costs, however these are generally estimated for the present-time and little consideration is given to the long term economic consequences. This study estimates the value of savings those who retire early due to CVD will have accumulated by the time they reach the traditional retirement age of 65 years, and how much lower the value of these savings are compared to those who remained healthy and in the workforce. Using Health&WealthMOD - a microsimulation model of Australians aged 45 to 64 years, regression models were used to analyse the differences between the projected savings and the retirement incomes of people by the time they reach age 65 for those currently working with no chronic condition, and people not in the labour force due to CVD. Over 99% of individuals who are employed full-time will have accumulated some savings at age 65; whereas only 77% of those who are out of the labour force due to CVD will have done so. Those who retire early due to CVD will have a median value of total savings by the time they are 65 of $1833. This is far lower than the expected median value of savings for those who remained in the labour force full-time, who will have $281841 of savings. Not only will early retirement due to cardiovascular disease limit the immediate income and wealth available to individuals, but also reduce their long term financial capacity by reducing their savings. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Child morbidity and mortality associated with alternative policy responses to the economic crisis in Brazil: A nationwide microsimulation study.

PubMed

Rasella, Davide; Basu, Sanjay; Hone, Thomas; Paes-Sousa, Romulo; Ocké-Reis, Carlos Octávio; Millett, Christopher

2018-05-01

Since 2015, a major economic crisis in Brazil has led to increasing poverty and the implementation of long-term fiscal austerity measures that will substantially reduce expenditure on social welfare programmes as a percentage of the country's GDP over the next 20 years. The Bolsa Família Programme (BFP)-one of the largest conditional cash transfer programmes in the world-and the nationwide primary healthcare strategy (Estratégia Saúde da Família [ESF]) are affected by fiscal austerity, despite being among the policy interventions with the strongest estimated impact on child mortality in the country. We investigated how reduced coverage of the BFP and ESF-compared to an alternative scenario where the level of social protection under these programmes is maintained-may affect the under-five mortality rate (U5MR) and socioeconomic inequalities in child health in the country until 2030, the end date of the Sustainable Development Goals. We developed and validated a microsimulation model, creating a synthetic cohort of all 5,507 Brazilian municipalities for the period 2017-2030. This model was based on the longitudinal dataset and effect estimates from a previously published study that evaluated the effects of poverty, the BFP, and the ESF on child health. We forecast the economic crisis and the effect of reductions in BFP and ESF coverage due to current fiscal austerity on the U5MR, and compared this scenario with a scenario where these programmes maintain the levels of social protection by increasing or decreasing with the size of Brazil's vulnerable populations (policy response scenarios). We used fixed effects multivariate regression models including BFP and ESF coverage and accounting for secular trends, demographic and socioeconomic changes, and programme duration effects. With the maintenance of the levels of social protection provided by the BFP and ESF, in the most likely economic crisis scenario the U5MR is expected to be 8.57% (95% CI: 6.88%-10.24%) lower in 2030 than under fiscal austerity-a cumulative 19,732 (95% CI: 10,207-29,285) averted under-five deaths between 2017 and 2030. U5MRs from diarrhoea, malnutrition, and lower respiratory tract infections are projected to be 39.3% (95% CI: 36.9%-41.8%), 35.8% (95% CI: 31.5%-39.9%), and 8.5% (95% CI: 4.1%-12.0%) lower, respectively, in 2030 under the maintenance of BFP and ESF coverage, with 123,549 fewer under-five hospitalisations from all causes over the study period. Reduced coverage of the BFP and ESF will also disproportionately affect U5MR in the most vulnerable areas, with the U5MR in the poorest quintile of municipalities expected to be 11.0% (95% CI: 8.0%-13.8%) lower in 2030 under the maintenance of BFP and ESF levels of social protection than under fiscal austerity, compared to no difference in the richest quintile. Declines in health inequalities over the last decade will also stop under a fiscal austerity scenario: the U5MR concentration index is expected to remain stable over the period 2017-2030, compared to a 13.3% (95% CI: 5.6%-21.8%) reduction under the maintenance of BFP and ESF levels of protection. Limitations of our analysis are the ecological nature of the study, uncertainty around future macroeconomic scenarios, and potential changes in other factors affecting child health. A wide range of sensitivity analyses were conducted to minimise these limitations. The implementation of fiscal austerity measures in Brazil can be responsible for substantively higher childhood morbidity and mortality than expected under maintenance of social protection-threatening attainment of Sustainable Development Goals for child health and reducing inequality.

Child morbidity and mortality associated with alternative policy responses to the economic crisis in Brazil: A nationwide microsimulation study

PubMed Central

Paes-Sousa, Romulo; Ocké-Reis, Carlos Octávio; Millett, Christopher

2018-01-01

Background Since 2015, a major economic crisis in Brazil has led to increasing poverty and the implementation of long-term fiscal austerity measures that will substantially reduce expenditure on social welfare programmes as a percentage of the country’s GDP over the next 20 years. The Bolsa Família Programme (BFP)—one of the largest conditional cash transfer programmes in the world—and the nationwide primary healthcare strategy (Estratégia Saúde da Família [ESF]) are affected by fiscal austerity, despite being among the policy interventions with the strongest estimated impact on child mortality in the country. We investigated how reduced coverage of the BFP and ESF—compared to an alternative scenario where the level of social protection under these programmes is maintained—may affect the under-five mortality rate (U5MR) and socioeconomic inequalities in child health in the country until 2030, the end date of the Sustainable Development Goals. Methods and findings We developed and validated a microsimulation model, creating a synthetic cohort of all 5,507 Brazilian municipalities for the period 2017–2030. This model was based on the longitudinal dataset and effect estimates from a previously published study that evaluated the effects of poverty, the BFP, and the ESF on child health. We forecast the economic crisis and the effect of reductions in BFP and ESF coverage due to current fiscal austerity on the U5MR, and compared this scenario with a scenario where these programmes maintain the levels of social protection by increasing or decreasing with the size of Brazil’s vulnerable populations (policy response scenarios). We used fixed effects multivariate regression models including BFP and ESF coverage and accounting for secular trends, demographic and socioeconomic changes, and programme duration effects. With the maintenance of the levels of social protection provided by the BFP and ESF, in the most likely economic crisis scenario the U5MR is expected to be 8.57% (95% CI: 6.88%–10.24%) lower in 2030 than under fiscal austerity—a cumulative 19,732 (95% CI: 10,207–29,285) averted under-five deaths between 2017 and 2030. U5MRs from diarrhoea, malnutrition, and lower respiratory tract infections are projected to be 39.3% (95% CI: 36.9%–41.8%), 35.8% (95% CI: 31.5%–39.9%), and 8.5% (95% CI: 4.1%–12.0%) lower, respectively, in 2030 under the maintenance of BFP and ESF coverage, with 123,549 fewer under-five hospitalisations from all causes over the study period. Reduced coverage of the BFP and ESF will also disproportionately affect U5MR in the most vulnerable areas, with the U5MR in the poorest quintile of municipalities expected to be 11.0% (95% CI: 8.0%–13.8%) lower in 2030 under the maintenance of BFP and ESF levels of social protection than under fiscal austerity, compared to no difference in the richest quintile. Declines in health inequalities over the last decade will also stop under a fiscal austerity scenario: the U5MR concentration index is expected to remain stable over the period 2017–2030, compared to a 13.3% (95% CI: 5.6%–21.8%) reduction under the maintenance of BFP and ESF levels of protection. Limitations of our analysis are the ecological nature of the study, uncertainty around future macroeconomic scenarios, and potential changes in other factors affecting child health. A wide range of sensitivity analyses were conducted to minimise these limitations. Conclusions The implementation of fiscal austerity measures in Brazil can be responsible for substantively higher childhood morbidity and mortality than expected under maintenance of social protection—threatening attainment of Sustainable Development Goals for child health and reducing inequality. PMID:29787574

Cost-effectiveness of screening women with familial risk for breast cancer with magnetic resonance imaging.

PubMed

Saadatmand, Sepideh; Tilanus-Linthorst, Madeleine M A; Rutgers, Emiel J T; Hoogerbrugge, Nicoline; Oosterwijk, Jan C; Tollenaar, Rob A E M; Hooning, Maartje; Loo, Claudette E; Obdeijn, Inge-Marie; Heijnsdijk, Eveline A M; de Koning, Harry J

2013-09-04

To reduce mortality, women with a family history of breast cancer are often screened with mammography before age 50 years. Additional magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) improves sensitivity and is cost-effective for BRCA1/2 mutation carriers. However, for women with a family history without a proven mutation, cost-effectiveness is unclear. We evaluated data of the largest prospective MRI screening study (MRISC). Between 1999 and 2007, 1597 women (8370 woman-years at risk) aged 25 to 70 years with an estimated cumulative lifetime risk of 15% to 50% for breast cancer were screened with clinical breast examination every 6 months and with annual mammography and MRI. We calculated the cost per detected and treated breast cancer. After incorporating MRISC data into a microsimulation screening analysis model (MISCAN), different schemes were evaluated, and cost per life-year gained (LYG) was estimated in comparison with the Dutch nationwide breast cancer screening program (biennial mammography from age 50 to 75 years). All statistical tests were two-sided. Forty-seven breast cancers (9 ductal carcinoma in situ) were detected. Screening with additional MRI costs $123 672 (€93 639) per detected breast cancer. In increasing age-cohorts, costs per detected and treated breast cancer decreased, but, unexpectedly, the percentage of MRI-only detected cancers increased. Screening under the MRISC-scheme from age 35 to 50 years was estimated to reduce breast cancer mortality by 25% at $134 932 (€102 164) per LYG (3.5% discounting) compared with 17% mortality reduction at $54 665 (€41 390) per LYG with mammography only. Screening with MRI may improve survival for women with familial risk for breast cancer but is expensive, especially in the youngest age categories.

Averting HIV Infections in New York City: A Modeling Approach Estimating the Future Impact of Additional Behavioral and Biomedical HIV Prevention Strategies

PubMed Central

Kessler, Jason; Myers, Julie E.; Nucifora, Kimberly A.; Mensah, Nana; Kowalski, Alexis; Sweeney, Monica; Toohey, Christopher; Khademi, Amin; Shepard, Colin; Cutler, Blayne; Braithwaite, R. Scott

2013-01-01

Background New York City (NYC) remains an epicenter of the HIV epidemic in the United States. Given the variety of evidence-based HIV prevention strategies available and the significant resources required to implement each of them, comparative studies are needed to identify how to maximize the number of HIV cases prevented most economically. Methods A new model of HIV disease transmission was developed integrating information from a previously validated micro-simulation HIV disease progression model. Specification and parameterization of the model and its inputs, including the intervention portfolio, intervention effects and costs were conducted through a collaborative process between the academic modeling team and the NYC Department of Health and Mental Hygiene. The model projects the impact of different prevention strategies, or portfolios of prevention strategies, on the HIV epidemic in NYC. Results Ten unique interventions were able to provide a prevention benefit at an annual program cost of less than $360,000, the threshold for consideration as a cost-saving intervention (because of offsets by future HIV treatment costs averted). An optimized portfolio of these specific interventions could result in up to a 34% reduction in new HIV infections over the next 20 years. The cost-per-infection averted of the portfolio was estimated to be $106,378; the total cost was in excess of $2 billion (over the 20 year period, or approximately $100 million per year, on average). The cost-savings of prevented infections was estimated at more than $5 billion (or approximately $250 million per year, on average). Conclusions Optimal implementation of a portfolio of evidence-based interventions can have a substantial, favorable impact on the ongoing HIV epidemic in NYC and provide future cost-saving despite significant initial costs. PMID:24058465

Transition from film to digital mammography: impact for breast cancer screening through the national breast and cervical cancer early detection program.

PubMed

van Ravesteyn, Nicolien T; van Lier, Lisanne; Schechter, Clyde B; Ekwueme, Donatus U; Royalty, Janet; Miller, Jacqueline W; Near, Aimee M; Cronin, Kathleen A; Heijnsdijk, Eveline A M; Mandelblatt, Jeanne S; de Koning, Harry J

2015-05-01

The National Breast and Cervical Cancer Early Detection Program (NBCCEDP) provides mammograms and diagnostic services for low-income, uninsured women aged 40-64 years. Mammography facilities within the NBCCEDP gradually shifted from plain-film to digital mammography. The purpose of this study is to assess the impact of replacing film with digital mammography on health effects (deaths averted, life-years gained [LYG]); costs (for screening and diagnostics); and number of women reached. NBCCEDP 2010 data and data representative of the program's target population were used in two established microsimulation models. Models simulated observed screening behavior including different screening intervals (annual, biennial, irregular) and starting ages (40, 50 years) for white, black, and Hispanic women. Model runs were performed in 2012. The models predicted 8.0-8.3 LYG per 1,000 film screens for black women, 5.9-7.5 for white women, and 4.0-4.5 for Hispanic women. For all race/ethnicity groups, digital mammography had more LYG than film mammography (2%-4%), but had higher costs (34%-35%). Assuming a fixed budget, 25%-26% fewer women could be served, resulting in 22%-24% fewer LYG if all mammograms were converted to digital. The loss in LYG could be reversed to an 8%-13% increase by only including biennial screening. Digital could result in slightly more LYG than film mammography. However, with a fixed budget, fewer women may be served with fewer LYG. Changes in the program, such as only including biennial screening, will increase LYG/screen and could offset the potential decrease in LYG when shifting to digital mammography. Copyright © 2015 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. All rights reserved.

Cost-effectiveness of strategies to prevent methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus transmission and infection in an intensive care unit.

PubMed

Gidengil, Courtney A; Gay, Charlene; Huang, Susan S; Platt, Richard; Yokoe, Deborah; Lee, Grace M

2015-01-01

OBJECTIVE To create a national policy model to evaluate the projected cost-effectiveness of multiple hospital-based strategies to prevent methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) transmission and infection. DESIGN Cost-effectiveness analysis using a Markov microsimulation model that simulates the natural history of MRSA acquisition and infection. PATIENTS AND SETTING Hypothetical cohort of 10,000 adult patients admitted to a US intensive care unit. METHODS We compared 7 strategies to standard precautions using a hospital perspective: (1) active surveillance cultures; (2) active surveillance cultures plus selective decolonization; (3) universal contact precautions (UCP); (4) universal chlorhexidine gluconate baths; (5) universal decolonization; (6) UCP + chlorhexidine gluconate baths; and (7) UCP+decolonization. For each strategy, both efficacy and compliance were considered. Outcomes of interest were: (1) MRSA colonization averted; (2) MRSA infection averted; (3) incremental cost per colonization averted; (4) incremental cost per infection averted. RESULTS A total of 1989 cases of colonization and 544 MRSA invasive infections occurred under standard precautions per 10,000 patients. Universal decolonization was the least expensive strategy and was more effective compared with all strategies except UCP+decolonization and UCP+chlorhexidine gluconate. UCP+decolonization was more effective than universal decolonization but would cost $2469 per colonization averted and $9007 per infection averted. If MRSA colonization prevalence decreases from 12% to 5%, active surveillance cultures plus selective decolonization becomes the least expensive strategy. CONCLUSIONS Universal decolonization is cost-saving, preventing 44% of cases of MRSA colonization and 45% of cases of MRSA infection. Our model provides useful guidance for decision makers choosing between multiple available hospital-based strategies to prevent MRSA transmission.

Cost-effectiveness of Human Papilloma Virus (HPV) vaccination in Nigeria: a decision analysis using pragmatic parameter estimates for cost and programme coverage.

PubMed

Ekwunife, Obinna I; Lhachimi, Stefan K

2017-12-08

World Health Organisation recommends routine Human Papilloma Virus (HPV) vaccination for girls when its cost-effectiveness in the country or region has been duly considered. We therefore aimed to evaluate cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccination in Nigeria using pragmatic parameter estimates for cost and programme coverage, i.e. realistically achievable in the studied context. A microsimulation frame-work was used. The natural history for cervical cancer disease was remodelled from a previous Nigerian model-based study. Costing was based on health providers' perspective. Disability adjusted life years attributable to cervical cancer mortality served as benefit estimate. Suitable policy option was obtained by calculating the incremental costs-effectiveness ratio. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis was used to assess parameter uncertainty. One-way sensitivity analysis was used to explore the robustness of the policy recommendation to key parameters alteration. Expected value of perfect information (EVPI) was calculated to determine the expected opportunity cost associated with choosing the optimal scenario or strategy at the maximum cost-effectiveness threshold. Combination of the current scenario of opportunistic screening and national HPV vaccination programme (CS + NV) was the only cost-effective and robust policy option. However, CS + NV scenario was only cost-effective so far the unit cost of HPV vaccine did not exceed $5. EVPI analysis showed that it may be worthwhile to conduct additional research to inform the decision to adopt CS + NV. National HPV vaccination combined with opportunist cervical cancer screening is cost-effective in Nigeria. However, adoption of this strategy should depend on its relative efficiency when compared to other competing new vaccines and health interventions.

Cost-effectiveness of computed tomography colonography in colorectal cancer screening: a systematic review.

PubMed

Hanly, Paul; Skally, Mairead; Fenlon, Helen; Sharp, Linda

2012-10-01

The European Code Against Cancer recommends individuals aged ≥ 50 should participate in colorectal cancer screening. CT-colonography (CTC) is one of several screening tests available. We systematically reviewed evidence on, and identified key factors influencing, cost-effectiveness of CTC screening. PubMed, Medline, and the Cochrane library were searched for cost-effectiveness or cost-utility analyses of CTC-based screening, published in English, January 1999 to July 2010. Data was abstracted on setting, model type and horizon, screening scenario(s), comparator(s), participants, uptake, CTC performance and cost, effectiveness, ICERs, and whether extra-colonic findings and medical complications were considered. Sixteen studies were identified from the United States (n = 11), Canada (n = 2), and France, Italy, and the United Kingdom (1 each). Markov state-transition (n = 14) or microsimulation (n = 2) models were used. Eleven considered direct medical costs only; five included indirect costs. Fourteen compared CTC with no screening; fourteen compared CTC with colonoscopy-based screening; fewer compared CTC with sigmoidoscopy (8) or fecal tests (4). Outcomes assessed were life-years gained/saved (13), QALYs (2), or both (1). Three considered extra-colonic findings; seven considered complications. CTC appeared cost-effective versus no screening and, in general, flexible sigmoidoscopy and fecal occult blood testing. Results were mixed comparing CTC to colonoscopy. Parameters most influencing cost-effectiveness included: CTC costs, screening uptake, threshold for polyp referral, and extra-colonic findings. Evidence on cost-effectiveness of CTC screening is heterogeneous, due largely to between-study differences in comparators and parameter values. Future studies should: compare CTC with currently favored tests, especially fecal immunochemical tests; consider extra-colonic findings; and conduct comprehensive sensitivity analyses.

Cost-effectiveness of prostate cancer screening: a simulation study based on ERSPC data.

PubMed

Heijnsdijk, E A M; de Carvalho, T M; Auvinen, A; Zappa, M; Nelen, V; Kwiatkowski, M; Villers, A; Páez, A; Moss, S M; Tammela, T L J; Recker, F; Denis, L; Carlsson, S V; Wever, E M; Bangma, C H; Schröder, F H; Roobol, M J; Hugosson, J; de Koning, H J

2015-01-01

The results of the European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer (ERSPC) trial showed a statistically significant 29% prostate cancer mortality reduction for the men screened in the intervention arm and a 23% negative impact on the life-years gained because of quality of life. However, alternative prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening strategies for the population may exist, optimizing the effects on mortality reduction, quality of life, overdiagnosis, and costs. Based on data of the ERSPC trial, we predicted the numbers of prostate cancers diagnosed, prostate cancer deaths averted, life-years and quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) gained, and cost-effectiveness of 68 screening strategies starting at age 55 years, with a PSA threshold of 3, using microsimulation modeling. The screening strategies varied by age to stop screening and screening interval (one to 14 years or once in a lifetime screens), and therefore number of tests. Screening at short intervals of three years or less was more cost-effective than using longer intervals. Screening at ages 55 to 59 years with two-year intervals had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $73000 per QALY gained and was considered optimal. With this strategy, lifetime prostate cancer mortality reduction was predicted as 13%, and 33% of the screen-detected cancers were overdiagnosed. When better quality of life for the post-treatment period could be achieved, an older age of 65 to 72 years for ending screening was obtained. Prostate cancer screening can be cost-effective when it is limited to two or three screens between ages 55 to 59 years. Screening above age 63 years is less cost-effective because of loss of QALYs because of overdiagnosis. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Health and Economic Implications of National Treatment Coverage for Cardiovascular Disease in India: Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.

PubMed

Basu, Sanjay; Bendavid, Eran; Sood, Neeraj

2015-11-01

Whether to cover cardiovascular disease costs is an increasingly pressing question for low- and middle-income countries. We sought to identify the impact of expanding national insurance to cover primary prevention, secondary prevention, and tertiary treatment for cardiovascular disease in India. We incorporated data from coverage experiments into a validated microsimulation model of myocardial infarction and stroke in India to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of alternate coverage strategies. Coverage of primary prevention alone saved 3.6 million disability-adjusted life-years (DALY) per annum at an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $469 per DALY averted when compared with the status quo of no coverage. Coverage of primary and secondary preventions was dominated by a strategy of covering primary prevention and tertiary treatment, which prevented 6.6 million DALYs at an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $2241 per DALY averted, when compared with that of primary prevention alone. The combination of all 3 categories yielded the greatest impact at an incremental cost per DALY averted of $5588 when compared with coverage of primary prevention plus tertiary treatment. When compared with the status quo of no coverage, coverage of all 3 categories of prevention/treatment yielded an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $1331 per DALY averted. In sensitivity analyses, coverage of primary preventive treatments remained cost-effective even if adherence and access to therapy were low, but tertiary coverage would require avoiding unnecessary procedures to remain cost-effective. Coverage of all 3 major types of cardiovascular treatment would be expected to have high impact and reasonable cost-effectiveness in India across a broad spectrum of access and adherence levels. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

The utility of childhood and adolescent obesity assessment in relation to adult health.

PubMed

Goldhaber-Fiebert, Jeremy D; Rubinfeld, Rachel E; Bhattacharya, Jay; Robinson, Thomas N; Wise, Paul H

2013-02-01

High childhood obesity prevalence has raised concerns about future adult health, generating calls for obesity screening of young children. To estimate how well childhood obesity predicts adult obesity and to forecast obesity-related health of future US adults. Longitudinal statistical analyses; microsimulations combining multiple data sets. National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, Population Study of Income Dynamics, and National Health and Nutrition Evaluation Surveys. The authors estimated test characteristics and predictive values of childhood body mass index to identify 2-, 5-, 10-, and 15 year-olds who will become obese adults. The authors constructed models relating childhood body mass index to obesity-related diseases through middle age stratified by sex and race. Twelve percent of 18-year-olds were obese. While screening at age 5 would miss 50% of those who become obese adults, screening at age 15 would miss 9%. The predictive value of obesity screening below age 10 was low even when maternal obesity was included as a predictor. Obesity at age 5 was a substantially worse predictor of health in middle age than was obesity at age 15. For example, the relative risk of developing diabetes as adults for obese white male 15-year-olds was 4.5 versus otherwise similar nonobese 15-year-olds. For obese 5-year-olds, the relative risk was 1.6. Main results do not include Hispanics due to sample size. Past relationships between childhood and adult obesity and health may change in the future. Early childhood obesity assessment adds limited information to later childhood assessment. Targeted later childhood approaches or universal strategies to prevent unhealthy weight gain should be considered.

Using cost-effectiveness analysis to prioritize policy and programmatic approaches to physical activity promotion and obesity prevention in childhood.

PubMed

Cradock, Angie L; Barrett, Jessica L; Kenney, Erica L; Giles, Catherine M; Ward, Zachary J; Long, Michael W; Resch, Stephen C; Pipito, Andrea A; Wei, Emily R; Gortmaker, Steven L

2017-02-01

Participation in recommended levels of physical activity promotes a healthy body weight and reduced chronic disease risk. To inform investment in prevention initiatives, we simulate the national implementation, impact on physical activity and childhood obesity and associated cost-effectiveness (versus the status quo) of six recommended strategies that can be applied throughout childhood to increase physical activity in US school, afterschool and childcare settings. In 2016, the Childhood Obesity Intervention Cost Effectiveness Study (CHOICES) systematic review process identified six interventions for study. A microsimulation model estimated intervention outcomes 2015-2025 including changes in mean MET-hours/day, intervention reach and cost per person, cost per MET-hour change, ten-year net costs to society and cases of childhood obesity prevented. First year reach of the interventions ranged from 90,000 youth attending a Healthy Afterschool Program to 31.3 million youth reached by Active School Day policies. Mean MET-hour/day/person increases ranged from 0.05 MET-hour/day/person for Active PE and Healthy Afterschool to 1.29 MET-hour/day/person for the implementation of New Afterschool Programs. Cost per MET-hour change ranged from cost saving to $3.14. Approximately 2500 to 110,000 cases of children with obesity could be prevented depending on the intervention implemented. All of the six interventions are estimated to increase physical activity levels among children and adolescents in the US population and prevent cases of childhood obesity. Results do not include other impacts of increased physical activity, including cognitive and behavioral effects. Decision-makers can use these methods to inform prioritization of physical activity promotion and obesity prevention on policy agendas. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Improving the cost-effectiveness of photographic screening for diabetic macular oedema: a prospective, multi-centre, UK study.

PubMed

Prescott, Gordon; Sharp, Peter; Goatman, Keith; Scotland, Graham; Fleming, Alan; Philip, Sam; Staff, Roger; Santiago, Cynthia; Borooah, Shyamanga; Broadbent, Deborah; Chong, Victor; Dodson, Paul; Harding, Simon; Leese, Graham; Megaw, Roly; Styles, Caroline; Swa, Ken; Wharton, Helen; Olson, John

2014-08-01

Retinal screening programmes in England and Scotland have similar photographic grading schemes for background (non-proliferative) and proliferative diabetic retinopathy, but diverge over maculopathy. We looked for the most cost-effective method of identifying diabetic macular oedema from retinal photographs including the role of automated grading and optical coherence tomography, a technology that directly visualises oedema. Patients from seven UK centres were recruited. The following features in at least one eye were required for enrolment: microaneurysms/dot haemorrhages or blot haemorrhages within one disc diameter, or exudates within one or two disc diameters of the centre of the macula. Subjects had optical coherence tomography and digital photography. Manual and automated grading schemes were evaluated. Costs and QALYs were modelled using microsimulation techniques. 3540 patients were recruited, 3170 were analysed. For diabetic macular oedema, England's scheme had a sensitivity of 72.6% and specificity of 66.8%; Scotland's had a sensitivity of 59.5% and specificity of 79.0%. When applying a ceiling ratio of £30,000 per quality adjusted life years (QALY) gained, Scotland's scheme was preferred. Assuming automated grading could be implemented without increasing grading costs, automation produced a greater number of QALYS for a lower cost than England's scheme, but was not cost effective, at the study's operating point, compared with Scotland's. The addition of optical coherence tomography, to each scheme, resulted in cost savings without reducing health benefits. Retinal screening programmes in the UK should reconsider the screening pathway to make best use of existing and new technologies. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Radiation Therapy Versus Transoral Robotic Surgery for Oropharyngeal Squamous Cell Carcinoma.

PubMed

Rodin, Danielle; Caulley, Lisa; Burger, Emily; Kim, Jane; Johnson-Obaseki, Stephanie; Palma, David; Louie, Alexander V; Hansen, Aaron; O'Sullivan, Brian

2017-03-15

The objective of this study was to compare the cost-effectiveness of transoral robotic surgery (TORS) versus the standard treatment modality for oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC), radiation therapy (RT), in a subset of patients with early-stage OPSCC. We developed a microsimulation state-transition model associated with RT and TORS for patients with clinically staged T1N0M0 to T2N1M0 OPSCC. Transition probabilities, utilities, and costs for each health state were estimated from recently published data and discounted by 3% annually over a lifetime time horizon. Model outcomes included lifetime costs (in 2014 US dollars), health benefits (quality-adjusted life-years [QALYs]), and cost-effectiveness ratios from a societal perspective. Under base-case assumptions, TORS was associated with modest gains in QALYs. RT yielded 10.43 QALYs at a cost of $123,410 per patient, whereas TORS yielded 11.10 QALYs at a cost of $178,480. This resulted in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $82,190/QALY gained. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was most sensitive to the need for adjuvant therapy, cost of late toxicity, age at diagnosis, disease state utilities, and discount rate. Accounting for joint parameter uncertainty, RT had a higher probability of demonstrating a cost-effective profile compared with TORS, at 54% compared with 46%. By use of standard benchmarks for cost-effectiveness in the United States, TORS may be a cost-effective alternative for the subset of patients with early-stage OPSCC but demonstrates considerable sensitivity to assumptions around quality of life. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

The effect of a graphical interpretation of a statistic trend indicator (Trigg's Tracking Variable) on the detection of simulated changes.

PubMed

Kennedy, R R; Merry, A F

2011-09-01

Anaesthesia involves processing large amounts of information over time. One task of the anaesthetist is to detect substantive changes in physiological variables promptly and reliably. It has been previously demonstrated that a graphical trend display of historical data leads to more rapid detection of such changes. We examined the effect of a graphical indication of the magnitude of Trigg's Tracking Variable, a simple statistically based trend detection algorithm, on the accuracy and latency of the detection of changes in a micro-simulation. Ten anaesthetists each viewed 20 simulations with four variables displayed as the current value with a simple graphical trend display. Values for these variables were generated by a computer model, and updated every second; after a period of stability a change occurred to a new random value at least 10 units from baseline. In 50% of the simulations an indication of the rate of change was given by a five level graphical representation of the value of Trigg's Tracking Variable. Participants were asked to indicate when they thought a change was occurring. Changes were detected 10.9% faster with the trend indicator present (mean 13.1 [SD 3.1] cycles vs 14.6 [SD 3.4] cycles, 95% confidence interval 0.4 to 2.5 cycles, P = 0.013. There was no difference in accuracy of detection (median with trend detection 97% [interquartile range 95 to 100%], without trend detection 100% [98 to 100%]), P = 0.8. We conclude that simple statistical trend detection may speed detection of changes during routine anaesthesia, even when a graphical trend display is present.

The optimal imaging strategy for patients with stable chest pain: a cost-effectiveness analysis.

PubMed

Genders, Tessa S S; Petersen, Steffen E; Pugliese, Francesca; Dastidar, Amardeep G; Fleischmann, Kirsten E; Nieman, Koen; Hunink, M G Myriam

2015-04-07

The optimal imaging strategy for patients with stable chest pain is uncertain. To determine the cost-effectiveness of different imaging strategies for patients with stable chest pain. Microsimulation state-transition model. Published literature. 60-year-old patients with a low to intermediate probability of coronary artery disease (CAD). Lifetime. The United States, the United Kingdom, and the Netherlands. Coronary computed tomography (CT) angiography, cardiac stress magnetic resonance imaging, stress single-photon emission CT, and stress echocardiography. Lifetime costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios. The strategy that maximized QALYs and was cost-effective in the United States and the Netherlands began with coronary CT angiography, continued with cardiac stress imaging if angiography found at least 50% stenosis in at least 1 coronary artery, and ended with catheter-based coronary angiography if stress imaging induced ischemia of any severity. For U.K. men, the preferred strategy was optimal medical therapy without catheter-based coronary angiography if coronary CT angiography found only moderate CAD or stress imaging induced only mild ischemia. In these strategies, stress echocardiography was consistently more effective and less expensive than other stress imaging tests. For U.K. women, the optimal strategy was stress echocardiography followed by catheter-based coronary angiography if echocardiography induced mild or moderate ischemia. Results were sensitive to changes in the probability of CAD and assumptions about false-positive results. All cardiac stress imaging tests were assumed to be available. Exercise electrocardiography was included only in a sensitivity analysis. Differences in QALYs among strategies were small. Coronary CT angiography is a cost-effective triage test for 60-year-old patients who have nonacute chest pain and a low to intermediate probability of CAD. Erasmus University Medical Center.

Cost-Effectiveness of a Clinical Childhood Obesity Intervention.

PubMed

Sharifi, Mona; Franz, Calvin; Horan, Christine M; Giles, Catherine M; Long, Michael W; Ward, Zachary J; Resch, Stephen C; Marshall, Richard; Gortmaker, Steven L; Taveras, Elsie M

2017-11-01

To estimate the cost-effectiveness and population impact of the national implementation of the Study of Technology to Accelerate Research (STAR) intervention for childhood obesity. In the STAR cluster-randomized trial, 6- to 12-year-old children with obesity seen at pediatric practices with electronic health record (EHR)-based decision support for primary care providers and self-guided behavior-change support for parents had significantly smaller increases in BMI than children who received usual care. We used a microsimulation model of a national implementation of STAR from 2015 to 2025 among all pediatric primary care providers in the United States with fully functional EHRs to estimate cost, impact on obesity prevalence, and cost-effectiveness. The expected population reach of a 10-year national implementation is ∼2 million children, with intervention costs of $119 per child and $237 per BMI unit reduced. At 10 years, assuming maintenance of effect, the intervention is expected to avert 43 000 cases and 226 000 life-years with obesity at a net cost of $4085 per case and $774 per life-year with obesity averted. Limiting implementation to large practices and using higher estimates of EHR adoption improved both cost-effectiveness and reach, whereas decreasing the maintenance of the intervention's effect worsened the former. A childhood obesity intervention with electronic decision support for clinicians and self-guided behavior-change support for parents may be more cost-effective than previous clinical interventions. Effective and efficient interventions that target children with obesity are necessary and could work in synergy with population-level prevention strategies to accelerate progress in reducing obesity prevalence. Copyright © 2017 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

Moxie matters: associations of future orientation with active life expectancy.

PubMed

Laditka, Sarah B; Laditka, James N

2017-10-01

Being oriented toward the future has been associated with better future health. We studied associations of future orientation with life expectancy and the percentage of life with disability. We used the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (n = 5249). Participants' average age in 1968 was 33.0. Six questions repeatedly measured future orientation, 1968-1976. Seven waves (1999-2011, 33,331 person-years) measured disability in activities of daily living for the same individuals, whose average age in 1999 was 64.0. We estimated monthly probabilities of disability and death with multinomial logistic Markov models adjusted for age, sex, race/ethnicity, childhood health, and education. Using the probabilities, we created large populations with microsimulation, measuring disability in each month for each individual, age 55 through death. Life expectancy from age 55 for white men with high future orientation was age 77.6 (95% confidence interval 75.5-79.0), 6.9% (4.9-7.2) of those years with disability; results with low future orientation were 73.6 (72.2-75.4) and 9.6% (7.7-10.7). Comparable results for African American men were 74.8 (72.9-75.3), 8.1 (5.6-9.3), 71.0 (69.6-72.8), and 11.3 (9.1-11.7). For women, there were no significant differences associated with levels of future orientation for life expectancy. For white women with high future orientation 9.1% of remaining life from age 55 was disabled (6.3-9.9), compared to 12.4% (10.2-13.2) with low future orientation. Disability results for African American women were similar but statistically significant only at age 80 and over. High future orientation during early to middle adult ages may be associated with better health in older age.

Cost-effectiveness of digital mammography screening before the age of 50 in The Netherlands.

PubMed

Sankatsing, Valérie D V; Heijnsdijk, Eveline A M; van Luijt, Paula A; van Ravesteyn, Nicolien T; Fracheboud, Jacques; de Koning, Harry J

2015-10-15

In the Netherlands, routine mammography screening starts at age 50. This starting age may have to be reconsidered because of the increasing breast cancer incidence among women aged 40 to 49 and the recent implementation of digital mammography. We assessed the cost-effectiveness of digital mammography screening that starts between age 40 and 49, using a microsimulation model. Women were screened before age 50, in addition to the current programme (biennial 50-74). Screening strategies varied in starting age (between 40 and 50) and frequency (annual or biennial). The numbers of breast cancers diagnosed, life-years gained (LYG) and breast cancer deaths averted were predicted and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were calculated to compare screening scenarios. Biennial screening from age 50 to 74 (current strategy) was estimated to gain 157 life years per 1,000 women with lifelong follow-up, compared to a situation without screening, and cost €3,376/LYG (3.5% discounted). Additional screening increased the number of LYG, compared to no screening, ranging from 168 to 242. The costs to generate one additional LYG (i.e., ICER), comparing a screening strategy to the less intensive alternative, were estimated at €5,329 (biennial 48-74 vs. current strategy), €7,628 (biennial 45-74 vs. biennial 48-74), €10,826 (biennial 40-74 vs. biennial 45-74) and €18,759 (annual 40-49 + biennial 50-74 vs. biennial 40-74). Other strategies (49 + biennial 50-74 and annual 45-49 + biennial 50-74) resulted in less favourable ICERs. These findings show that extending the Dutch screening programme by screening between age 40 and 49 is cost-effective, particularly for biennial strategies. © 2015 UICC.

Back problems, comorbidities, and their association with wealth.

PubMed

Schofield, Deborah J; Callander, Emily J; Shrestha, Rupendra N; Passey, Megan E; Kelly, Simon J; Percival, Richard

2015-01-01

Studies assessing the economic burden of back problems have given little consideration to the presence of comorbidities. To assess the difference in the value of wealth held by Australians who have back problems and varying numbers of chronic comorbidities. A cross-sectional study. Individuals aged 45 to 64 years in 2009: 4,388 with no chronic health conditions, 1,405 with back problems, and 3,018 with other health conditions. Total wealth (cash, shares, superannuation, investment property, and owner occupied home). Using a microsimulation model (Health&WealthMOD), logistic regression models were used to assess the odds of having any wealth. Linear regression models were used to assess the difference in the value of this wealth. Those with back problems and two comorbidities had 0.16 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.06-0.42) times the odds and those with back problems and three or more comorbidities had 0.20 (95% CI: 0.11-0.38) times the odds of having accumulated some wealth than those with no chronic health conditions. Those with back problems and three or more comorbidities had a median value of total wealth of around $150,000, whereas those with back problems only and back problems and one comorbidity had a median value of total wealth of around $250,500. There was no significant difference in the amount of wealth accumulated by those with back problems and at least one comorbidity and those with other health conditions and the same number of comorbidities. However, those with only one health condition (excluding back problems) had 65% more wealth than those with back problems only (95% CI: 5.1-161.2). This study highlights the importance of considering multiple morbidities when discussing the relationship between back problems and economic circumstances. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The intensive and extensive margins of contraceptive use: comparing the effects of method choice and method initiation.

PubMed

Thomas, Adam; Karpilow, Quentin

2016-08-01

The risk of pregnancy is estimated to be 20 times as high among women who use oral contraception, and 90 times as high among condom users, as among women who use certain long-acting contraceptive methods. We explored the population-level implications of this variation in contraceptive efficacy. We used the FamilyScape 3.0 microsimulation model to study the effects on the nonmarital pregnancy rate of movements along two different margins of contraceptive behavior: the extensive margin, which captures decisions about whether to initiate use of any method of contraception among noncontraceptors; and the intensive margin, which captures the choice of methods among contraceptors. The model is populated with a nationally representative sample of 50,000 women who are of childbearing age. The impact on the number of nonmarital pregnancies would not be substantially different if noncontraceptors adopted long-acting methods than if they began using oral contraception. Moreover, the nonmarital pregnancy rate would be reduced by about twice as much if a subset of noncontraceptors began using condoms as if an equal number of pill users took up long-acting methods. The prevailing emphasis on long-acting contraception is somewhat misplaced. Policymakers and practitioners will have the largest effects on fertility outcomes if they can change the behavior of sexually active women who neglect to use birth control when they are not seeking pregnancy. Women's decisions about which methods to use are less impactful than their decisions about whether to use contraception at all. The policies that affect method choice are likely to differ from the policies that address the underlying motivations of noncontraceptors who are not seeking pregnancy. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of the colorectal cancer screening Programme in the Basque Country (Spain) and its effectiveness based on the Miscan-colon model.

PubMed

Idigoras, I; Arrospide, A; Portillo, I; Arana-Arri, E; Martínez-Indart, L; Mar, J; de Koning, H J; Lastra, R; Soto-Gordoa, M; van der Meulen, M; Lansdorp-Vogelaar, I

2017-08-01

The population-based Basque Colorectal Cancer (CRC) Screening Programme started in 2009 with a biennial immunochemical quantitative test (FIT) biennial and colonoscopy under sedation in positive cases. The population target of 586,700 residents was from 50 to 69 years old and the total coverage was reached at the beginning of 2014. The aim of our study was to determine possible scenarios in terms of incidence, mortality and reduction of Life-years-Lost (L-y-L) in the medium and long term of CRC. Invitations were sent out by the Programme from 2009 to 2014, with combined organizational strategies. Simulation was done by MISCAN-colon (Microsimulation Screening Analysis) over 30 years comparing the results of screening vs no-screening, taking the population-based Cancer Registry into account. Lifetime population and real data from the Programme were used from 2008 to 2012. The model was run differentially for men and women. 924,416 invitations were sent out from 2009 to 2014. The average participation rate was 68.4%, CRC detection rate was 3.4% and the Advanced Adenoma detection rate was 24.0‰, with differences observed in sex and age. Future scenarios showed a higher decrease of incidence (17.2% vs 14.7%), mortality (28.1% vs 22.4%) and L-y-L (22.6% vs 18.4%) in men than women in 2030. The Basque Country CRC Programme results are aligned to its strategy and comparable to other programmes. MISCAN model was found to be a useful tool to predict the benefits of the programme in the future. The effectiveness of the Programme has not been formally established as case control studies are required to determine long term benefits from the screening strategy.

Reconciling the effects of screening on prostate cancer mortality in the ERSPC and PLCO trials

PubMed Central

Tsodikov, Alex; Gulati, Roman; Heijnsdijk, Eveline AM; Pinsky, Paul F; Moss, Sue M; Qiu, Sheng; de Carvalho, Tiago M; Hugosson, Jonas; Berg, Christine D; Auvinen, Anssi; Andriole, Gerald L; Roobol, Monique J; Crawford, E David; Nelen, Vera; Kwiatkowski, Maciej; Zappa, Marco; Luján, Marcos; Villers, Arnauld; Feuer, Eric J; de Koning, Harry J; Mariotto, Angela B; Etzioni, Ruth

2017-01-01

Background The European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer (ERSPC) found screening reduced prostate cancer (PC) mortality, but the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian trial (PLCO) found no reduction. Objective To evaluate whether effects of screening on PC mortality relative to no screening differed between the ERSPC and PLCO. Design Cox regression of PC death in each trial arm adjusted for age and trial, and extended analyses that accounted for increased incidence due to screening and diagnostic workup on each arm via mean lead times (MLTs). MLTs were estimated empirically and using analytic or microsimulation models. Setting Randomized controlled trials in Europe and the US. Participants Men aged 55–69 (ERSPC) or 55–74 (PLCO) at randomization. Intervention Prostate cancer screening. Measurements PC incidence and survival from randomization; PC incidence in the US before screening began. Results Estimated MLTs were similar in the ERSPC and PLCO intervention arms but were longer in the PLCO control arm than the ERSPC control arm. Extended analyses found no evidence that effects of screening differed between trials (P=0.37–0.47, range across MLT estimation approaches) but strong evidence that benefit increased with MLT (P=0.0027–0.0032). Screening was estimated to confer a 7–9% reduction in PC death per year of MLT. This translated into an estimated 25–31% and 27–32% lower risk of PC death under screening as performed in the ERSPC and PLCO intervention arms, respectively, relative to no screening. Limitations MLT is a simple metric of screening and diagnostic workup. Conclusion After accounting for differences in implementation and settings, the ERSPC and PLCO provide compatible evidence that screening reduces PC mortality. PMID:28869989

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Bariatric Surgery for Morbid Obesity.

PubMed

Alsumali, Adnan; Eguale, Tewodros; Bairdain, Sigrid; Samnaliev, Mihail

2018-01-15

In the USA, three types of bariatric surgeries are widely performed, including laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy (LSG), laparoscopic Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (LRYGB), and laparoscopic adjustable gastric banding (LAGB). However, few economic evaluations of bariatric surgery are published. There is also scarcity of studies focusing on the LSG alone. Therefore, this study is evaluating the cost-effectiveness of bariatric surgery using LRYGB, LAGB, and LSG as treatment for morbid obesity. A microsimulation model was developed over a lifetime horizon to simulate weight change, health consequences, and costs of bariatric surgery for morbid obesity. US health care prospective was used. A model was propagated based on a report from the first report of the American College of Surgeons. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) in terms of cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained were used in the model. Model parameters were estimated from publicly available databases and published literature. LRYGB was cost-effective with higher QALYs (17.07) and cost ($138,632) than LSG (16.56 QALYs; $138,925), LAGB (16.10 QALYs; $135,923), and no surgery (15.17 QALYs; $128,284). Sensitivity analysis showed initial cost of surgery and weight regain assumption were very sensitive to the variation in overall model parameters. Across patient groups, LRYGB remained the optimal bariatric technique, except that with morbid obesity 1 (BMI 35-39.9 kg/m 2 ) patients, LSG was the optimal choice. LRYGB is the optimal bariatric technique, being the most cost-effective compared to LSG, LAGB, and no surgery options for most subgroups. However, LSG was the most cost-effective choice when initial BMI ranged between 35 and 39.9 kg/m 2 .

Costs, effectiveness, and workload impact of management strategies for women with an adnexal mass.

PubMed

Havrilesky, Laura J; Dinan, Michaela; Sfakianos, Gregory P; Curtis, Lesley H; Barnett, Jason C; Van Gorp, Toon; Myers, Evan R

2015-01-01

We compared the estimated clinical outcomes, costs, and physician workload resulting from available strategies for deciding which women with an adnexal mass should be referred to a gynecologic oncologist. We used a microsimulation model to compare five referral strategies: 1) American Congress of Obstetricians and Gynecologists (ACOG) guidelines, 2) Multivariate Index Assay (MIA) algorithm, 3) Risk of Malignancy Algorithm (ROMA), 4) CA125 alone with lowered cutoff values to prioritize test sensitivity over specificity, 5) referral of all women (Refer All). Test characteristics and relative survival were obtained from the literature and data from a biomarker validation study. Medical costs were estimated using Medicare reimbursements. Travel costs were estimated using discharge data from Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results-Medicare and State Inpatient Databases. Analyses were performed separately for pre- and postmenopausal women (60 000 "subjects" in each), repeated 10 000 times. Refer All was cost-effective compared with less expensive strategies in both postmenopausal (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio [ICER] $9423/year of life saved (LYS) compared with CA125) and premenopausal women (ICER $10 644/YLS compared with CA125), but would result in an additional 73 cases/year/subspecialist. MIA was more expensive and less effective than Refer All in pre- and postmenopausal women. If Refer All is not a viable option, CA125 is an optimal strategy in postmenopausal women. Referral of all women to a subspecialist is an efficient strategy for managing women with adnexal masses requiring surgery, assuming sufficient capacity for additional surgical volume. If a test-based triage strategy is needed, CA125 with lowered cutoff values is a cost-effective strategy. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Health Benefits and Cost-Effectiveness of Brief Clinician Tobacco Counseling for Youth and Adults.

PubMed

Maciosek, Michael V; LaFrance, Amy B; Dehmer, Steven P; McGree, Dana A; Xu, Zack; Flottemesch, Thomas J; Solberg, Leif I

2017-01-01

To help clinicians and care systems determine the priority for tobacco counseling in busy clinic schedules, we assessed the lifetime health and economic value of annually counseling youth to discourage smoking initiation and of annually counseling adults to encourage cessation. We conducted a microsimulation analysis to estimate the health impact and cost effectiveness of both types of tobacco counseling in a US birth cohort of 4,000,000. The model used for the analysis was constructed from nationally representative data sets and structured literature reviews. Compared with no tobacco counseling, the model predicts that annual counseling for youth would reduce the average prevalence of smoking cigarettes during adult years by 2.0 percentage points, whereas annual counseling for adults will reduce prevalence by 3.8 percentage points. Youth counseling would prevent 42,686 smoking-attributable fatalities and increase quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) by 756,601 over the lifetime of the cohort. Adult counseling would prevent 69,901 smoking-attributable fatalities and increase QALYs by 1,044,392. Youth and adult counseling would yield net savings of $225 and $580 per person, respectively. If annual tobacco counseling was provided to the cohort during both youth and adult years, then adult smoking prevalence would be 5.5 percentage points lower compared with no counseling, and there would be 105,917 fewer smoking-attributable fatalities over their lifetimes. Only one-third of the potential health and economic benefits of counseling are being realized at current counseling rates. Brief tobacco counseling provides substantial health benefits while producing cost savings. Both youth and adult intervention are high-priority uses of limited clinician time. © 2017 Annals of Family Medicine, Inc.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of neurocognitive-sparing treatments for brain metastases.

PubMed

Savitz, Samuel T; Chen, Ronald C; Sher, David J

2015-12-01

Decisions regarding how to treat patients who have 1 to 3 brain metastases require important tradeoffs between controlling recurrences, side effects, and costs. In this analysis, the authors compared novel treatments versus usual care to determine the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio from a payer's (Medicare) perspective. Cost-effectiveness was evaluated using a microsimulation of a Markov model for 60 one-month cycles. The model used 4 simulated cohorts of patients aged 65 years with 1 to 3 brain metastases. The 4 cohorts had a median survival of 3, 6, 12, and 24 months to test the sensitivity of the model to different prognoses. The treatment alternatives evaluated included stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) with 3 variants of salvage after recurrence (whole-brain radiotherapy [WBRT], hippocampal avoidance WBRT [HA-WBRT], SRS plus WBRT, and SRS plus HA-WBRT). The findings were tested for robustness using probabilistic and deterministic sensitivity analyses. Traditional radiation therapies remained cost-effective for patients in the 3-month and 6-month cohorts. In the cohorts with longer median survival, HA-WBRT and SRS plus HA-WBRT became cost-effective relative to traditional treatments. When the treatments that involved HA-WBRT were excluded, either SRS alone or SRS plus WBRT was cost-effective relative to WBRT alone. The deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses confirmed the robustness of these results. HA-WBRT and SRS plus HA-WBRT were cost-effective for 2 of the 4 cohorts, demonstrating the value of controlling late brain toxicity with this novel therapy. Cost-effectiveness depended on patient life expectancy. SRS was cost-effective in the cohorts with short prognoses (3 and 6 months), whereas HA-WBRT and SRS plus HA-WBRT were cost-effective in the cohorts with longer prognoses (12 and 24 months). © 2015 American Cancer Society.

The Efficiency of Increasing the Capacity of Physiotherapy Screening Clinics or Traditional Medical Services to Address Unmet Demand in Orthopaedic Outpatients: A Practical Application of Discrete Event Simulation with Dynamic Queuing.

PubMed

Standfield, L; Comans, T; Raymer, M; O'Leary, S; Moretto, N; Scuffham, P

2016-08-01

Hospital outpatient orthopaedic services traditionally rely on medical specialists to assess all new patients to determine appropriate care. This has resulted in significant delays in service provision. In response, Orthopaedic Physiotherapy Screening Clinics and Multidisciplinary Services (OPSC) have been introduced to assess and co-ordinate care for semi- and non-urgent patients. To compare the efficiency of delivering increased semi- and non-urgent orthopaedic outpatient services through: (1) additional OPSC services; (2) additional traditional orthopaedic medical services with added surgical resources (TOMS + Surg); or (3) additional TOMS without added surgical resources (TOMS - Surg). A cost-utility analysis using discrete event simulation (DES) with dynamic queuing (DQ) was used to predict the cost effectiveness, throughput, queuing times, and resource utilisation, associated with introducing additional OPSC or TOMS ± Surg versus usual care. The introduction of additional OPSC or TOMS (±surgery) would be considered cost effective in Australia. However, OPSC was the most cost-effective option. Increasing the capacity of current OPSC services is an efficient way to improve patient throughput and waiting times without exceeding current surgical resources. An OPSC capacity increase of ~100 patients per month appears cost effective (A$8546 per quality-adjusted life-year) and results in a high level of OPSC utilisation (98 %). Increasing OPSC capacity to manage semi- and non-urgent patients would be cost effective, improve throughput, and reduce waiting times without exceeding current surgical resources. Unlike Markov cohort modelling, microsimulation, or DES without DQ, employing DES-DQ in situations where capacity constraints predominate provides valuable additional information beyond cost effectiveness to guide resource allocation decisions.

Developing a synthetic national population to investigate the impact of different cardiovascular disease risk management strategies: A derivation and validation study

PubMed Central

Jackson, Rod

2017-01-01

Background Many national cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factor management guidelines now recommend that drug treatment decisions should be informed primarily by patients’ multi-variable predicted risk of CVD, rather than on the basis of single risk factor thresholds. To investigate the potential impact of treatment guidelines based on CVD risk thresholds at a national level requires individual level data representing the multi-variable CVD risk factor profiles for a country’s total adult population. As these data are seldom, if ever, available, we aimed to create a synthetic population, representing the joint CVD risk factor distributions of the adult New Zealand population. Methods and results A synthetic population of 2,451,278 individuals, representing the actual age, gender, ethnicity and social deprivation composition of people aged 30–84 years who completed the 2013 New Zealand census was generated using Monte Carlo sampling. Each ‘synthetic’ person was then probabilistically assigned values of the remaining cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors required for predicting their CVD risk, based on data from the national census national hospitalisation and drug dispensing databases and a large regional cohort study, using Monte Carlo sampling and multiple imputation. Where possible, the synthetic population CVD risk distributions for each non-demographic risk factor were validated against independent New Zealand data sources. Conclusions We were able to develop a synthetic national population with realistic multi-variable CVD risk characteristics. The construction of this population is the first step in the development of a micro-simulation model intended to investigate the likely impact of a range of national CVD risk management strategies that will inform CVD risk management guideline updates in New Zealand and elsewhere. PMID:28384217

Defining Appropriate Use of Proton-Pump Inhibitors Among Medical Inpatients.

PubMed

Pappas, Matt; Jolly, Sanjay; Vijan, Sandeep

2016-04-01

Proton-pump inhibitors (PPIs) are commonly used among medical inpatients, both for prophylaxis against upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) and continuation of outpatient use. While PPIs reduce the risk of UGIB, they also appear to increase the risk of hospital-acquired pneumonia (HAP) and Clostridium difficile infection (CDI). Depending upon the underlying risks of these conditions and the changes in those risks with PPIs, use of proton-pump inhibitors may lead to a net benefit or net harm among medical inpatients. We aimed to determine the net impact of PPIs on hospital mortality among medical inpatients. A microsimulation model, using literature-derived estimates of the risks of UGIB, HAP, and CDI among medical inpatients, along with the changes in risk associated with PPI use for each of these outcomes. The primary outcome was change in inpatient mortality. Simulated general medical inpatients outside the intensive care unit (ICU). Change in overall mortality during hospitalization. New initiation of PPI therapy led to an increase in hospital mortality in about 90% of simulated patients. Continuation of outpatient PPI therapy on admission led to net increase in hospital mortality in 79% of simulated patients. Results were robust to both one-way and multivariate sensitivity analyses, with net harm occurring in at least two-thirds of patients in all scenarios. For the majority of medical inpatients outside the ICU, use of PPIs likely leads to a net increase in hospital mortality. Even in patients at particularly high risk of UGIB, only those at the very lowest risk of HCAP and CDI should be considered for prophylactic PPI use. Continuation of outpatient PPIs may also increase expected hospital mortality. Apart from patients with active UGIB, use of PPIs in hospitalized patients should be discouraged.

How private vehicle use increases ambient air pollution concentrations at schools during the morning drop-off of children

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adams, Matthew D.; Requia, Weeberb J.

2017-09-01

A child's exposure to environmental pollutants can have life-long health effects. Thus it is critical to understand the potential exposure pathways. In this paper, we examine the increase in ambient PM2.5 concentrations at schools from private vehicle use for dropping children off at school. In North America, students are commonly driven to school in a private vehicle. Additionally, students walk or cycle, or take a school bus. Our vehicle surveys recorded between 23 and 116 personal vehicles at 25 schools, where enrolment ranged from 160 to 765 students. We fit a linear regression model to predict the number of vehicles at schools we did not observe within our study area, which explained 57% of the variation in our surveys. A microsimulation traffic model was created for each of the 86 schools we studied. Outputs from the traffic model were used to determine the emissions generated at each school. PM2.5 emissions varied from 0.14 to 6.38 g. Lastly, we dispersed the emissions produced by private vehicles dropping off students, which are emissions generated by unnecessary trips because students further than walking distance are provided transportation by the school board. At the drop-off location in front of the school, we found ambient concentration increases of at least 5 μg/m3, 10 μg/m3, 25 μg/m3 and 50 μg/m3 during 16.8%, 7.6%, 2.0% and 0.5% of the mornings, respectively. This research was conducted in a medium-sized North American city and should allow transferability to similar cities. We conclude that the use of private vehicles can significantly increase local concentrations, regardless of background conditions.

Cost-effectiveness of gastric band surgery for overweight but not obese adults with type 2 diabetes in the U.S.

PubMed

Wentworth, John M; Dalziel, Kim M; O'Brien, Paul E; Burton, Paul; Shaba, Frackson; Clarke, Philip M; Laiteerapong, Neda; Brown, Wendy A

2017-07-01

To determine the cost-effectiveness of gastric band surgery in overweight but not obese people who receive standard diabetes care. A microsimulation model (United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study outcomes model) was used to project diabetes outcomes and costs from a two-year Australian randomized trial of gastric band (GB) surgery in overweight but not obese people (BMI 25 to 30kg/m 2 ) on to a comparable population of U.S. adults from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (N=254). Estimates of cost-effectiveness were calculated based on the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for different treatment scenarios. Costs were inflated to 2015 U.S. dollar values and an ICER of less than $50,000 per QALY gained was considered cost-effective. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for GB surgery at two years exceeded $90,000 per quality-adjusted life year gained but decreased to $52,000, $29,000 and $22,000 when the health benefits of surgery were assumed to endure for 5, 10 and 15 years respectively. The cost-effectiveness of GB surgery was sensitive to utility gained from weight loss and, to a lesser degree, the costs of GB surgery. However, the cost-effectiveness of GB surgery was affected minimally by improvements in HbA1c, systolic blood pressure and cholesterol. GB surgery for overweight but not obese people with T2D appears to be cost-effective in the U.S. setting if weight loss endures for more than five years. Health utility gained from weight loss is a critical input to cost-effectiveness estimates and therefore should be routinely measured in populations undergoing bariatric surgery. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Febuxostat in the management of gout: a cost-effectiveness analysis.

PubMed

Smolen, Lee J; Gahn, James C; Mitri, Ghaith; Shiozawa, Aki

2016-01-01

To determine the cost-effectiveness of febuxostat vs allopurinol for the management of gout. A stochastic microsimulation cost-effectiveness model with a US private-payer perspective and 5-year time horizon was developed. Model flow based on guideline and real-world treatment paradigms incorporated gout flare, serum uric acid (sUA) testing, treatment titration, discontinuation, and adverse events, chronic kidney disease (CKD) incidence and progression, and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) incidence. Outcomes were estimated for the general gout population and for gout patients with CKD stages 3/4. Modeled treatment interventions were daily oral febuxostat 40-80 mg and allopurinol 100-300 mg. Baseline patient characteristics were taken from epidemiologic studies, efficacy data from randomized controlled trials, adverse event rates from package inserts, and costs from the literature, government sources, and expert opinion. Eight clinically-relevant incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were estimated: per patient reaching target sUA, per flare avoided, per CKD incidence, progression, stages 3/4 progression, and stage 5 progression avoided, per incident T2DM avoided, and per death avoided. Five-year incremental cost-effectiveness ratios for the general gout population were $5377 per patient reaching target sUA, $1773 per flare avoided, $221,795 per incident CKD avoided, $29,063 per CKD progression avoided, $36,018 per progression to CKD 3/4 avoided, $71,426 per progression to CKD 5 avoided, $214,277 per incident T2DM avoided, and $217,971 per death avoided. In patients with CKD 3/4, febuxostat dominated allopurinol for all cost-effectiveness outcome measures. Febuxostat may be a cost-effective alternative to allopurinol, especially for patients with CKD stages 3 or 4.

Excellent approach to modeling urban expansion by fuzzy cellular automata: agent base model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khajavigodellou, Yousef; Alesheikh, Ali A.; Mohammed, Abdulrazak A. S.; Chapi, Kamran

2014-09-01

Recently, the interaction between humans and their environment is the one of important challenges in the world. Landuse/ cover change (LUCC) is a complex process that includes actors and factors at different social and spatial levels. The complexity and dynamics of urban systems make the applicable practice of urban modeling very difficult. With the increased computational power and the greater availability of spatial data, micro-simulation such as the agent based and cellular automata simulation methods, has been developed by geographers, planners, and scholars, and it has shown great potential for representing and simulating the complexity of the dynamic processes involved in urban growth and land use change. This paper presents Fuzzy Cellular Automata in Geospatial Information System and remote Sensing to simulated and predicted urban expansion pattern. These FCA-based dynamic spatial urban models provide an improved ability to forecast and assess future urban growth and to create planning scenarios, allowing us to explore the potential impacts of simulations that correspond to urban planning and management policies. A fuzzy inference guided cellular automata approach. Semantic or linguistic knowledge on Land use change is expressed as fuzzy rules, based on which fuzzy inference is applied to determine the urban development potential for each pixel. The model integrates an ABM (agent-based model) and FCA (Fuzzy Cellular Automata) to investigate a complex decision-making process and future urban dynamic processes. Based on this model rapid development and green land protection under the influences of the behaviors and decision modes of regional authority agents, real estate developer agents, resident agents and non- resident agents and their interactions have been applied to predict the future development patterns of the Erbil metropolitan region.

The impact of diabetes on the labour force participation and income poverty of workers aged 45-64 years in Australia.

PubMed

Schofield, Deborah J; Cunich, Michelle; Shrestha, Rupendra N; Callander, Emily J; Passey, Megan E; Kelly, Simon J; Tanton, Robert; Veerman, Lennert

2014-01-01

To quantify the poverty status and level of disadvantage experienced by Australians aged 45-64 years who have left the labour force due to diabetes in 2010. A purpose-built microsimulation model, Health&WealthMOD2030, was used to estimate the poverty status and level of disadvantage of those aged 45-64 years who prematurely retire from the workforce due to diabetes. A multiple regression model was used to identify significant differences in rates of income poverty and the degree of disadvantage between those out of the labour force due to diabetes and those employed full- or part-time with no diabetes. 63.9% of people aged 45-64 years who were out of the labour force due to diabetes were in poverty in 2010. The odds of being in poverty for those with no diabetes and employed full-time (OR of being in poverty 0.02 95%CI: 0.01-0.04) or part-time (OR of being in poverty 0.10 95%CI: 0.05-0.23) are significantly lower than those for persons not in the labour force due to diabetes. Amongst those with diabetes, those who were able to stay in either full- or part-time employment were as much as 97% less likely to be in poverty than those who had to retire early because of the condition. Sensitivity analysis was used to assess impacts of different poverty line thresholds and key socioeconomic predictors of poverty. This study has shown that having diabetes and not being in the labour force because of this condition significantly increases the chances of living in poverty. Intervening to prevent or delay the onset of diabetes is likely to improve their living standards.

The Potential Cost-Effectiveness of Amblyopia Screening Programs

PubMed Central

Rein, David B.; Wittenborn, John S.; Zhang, Xinzhi; Song, Michael; Saaddine, Jinan B.

2013-01-01

Background To estimate the incremental cost-effectiveness of amblyopia screening at preschool and kindergarten, we compared the costs and benefits of 3 amblyopia screening scenarios to no screening and to each other: (1) acuity/stereopsis (A/S) screening at kindergarten, (2) A/S screening at preschool and kindergarten, and (3) photoscreening at preschool and A/S screening at kindergarten. Methods We programmed a probabilistic microsimulation model of amblyopia natural history and response to treatment with screening costs and outcomes estimated from 2 state programs. We calculated the probability that no screening and each of the 3 interventions were most cost-effective per incremental quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained and case avoided. Results Assuming a minimal 0.01 utility loss from monocular vision loss, no screening was most cost-effective with a willingness to pay (WTP) of less than $16,000 per QALY gained. A/S screening at kindergarten alone was most cost-effective between a WTP of $17,000 and $21,000. A/S screening at preschool and kindergarten was most cost-effective between a WTP of $22,000 and $75,000, and photoscreening at preschool and A/S screening at kindergarten was most cost-effective at a WTP greater than $75,000. Cost-effectiveness substantially improved when assuming a greater utility loss. All scenarios were cost-effective when assuming a WTP of $10,500 per case of amblyopia cured. Conclusions All 3 screening interventions evaluated are likely to be considered cost-effective relative to many other potential public health programs. The choice of screening option depends on budgetary resources and the value placed on monocular vision loss prevention by funding agencies. PMID:21877675

PCSK9 Inhibitors Show Value for Patients and the US Health Care System.

PubMed

Cheng, Wei-Han; Gaudette, Étienne; Goldman, Dana P

2017-12-01

Proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 (PCSK9) inhibitors were approved by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) as cholesterol-lowering therapies for patients with familial hypercholesterolemia or atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. To estimate the long-term health and economic value of PCSK9 inhibitors for Americans (51 years and older). We conducted simulations using the Future Elderly Model, an established dynamic microsimulation model to project the lifetime outcomes for the US population aged 51 years and older. Health effects estimates and confidence intervals from published meta-analysis studies were used to project changes in life expectancy, quality-adjusted life-years, and lifetime medical spending resulting from the use of PCSK9 inhibitors. We considered two treatment scenarios: 1) current FDA eligibility and 2) an extended eligibility scenario that includes patients with no pre-existing cardiovascular disease but at high risk. We assumed that the price of PCSK9 inhibitors was discounted by 35% in the first 12 years and by 57% thereafter, with gradual uptake of the drug in eligible populations. Use of PCSK9 inhibitors by individuals covered by current FDA approval would extend life expectancy at the age of 51 years by an estimated 1.1 years and would yield a lifetime net value of $5800 per person. If use was extended to those at high risk for cardiovascular disease, PCSK9 inhibitors would generate a lifetime net benefit of $14,100 per person. Expanded access to PCSK9 inhibitors would offer positive long-term net value for patients and the US health care system at the current discounted prices. Copyright © 2017 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Developing a synthetic national population to investigate the impact of different cardiovascular disease risk management strategies: A derivation and validation study.

PubMed

Knight, Josh; Wells, Susan; Marshall, Roger; Exeter, Daniel; Jackson, Rod

2017-01-01

Many national cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factor management guidelines now recommend that drug treatment decisions should be informed primarily by patients' multi-variable predicted risk of CVD, rather than on the basis of single risk factor thresholds. To investigate the potential impact of treatment guidelines based on CVD risk thresholds at a national level requires individual level data representing the multi-variable CVD risk factor profiles for a country's total adult population. As these data are seldom, if ever, available, we aimed to create a synthetic population, representing the joint CVD risk factor distributions of the adult New Zealand population. A synthetic population of 2,451,278 individuals, representing the actual age, gender, ethnicity and social deprivation composition of people aged 30-84 years who completed the 2013 New Zealand census was generated using Monte Carlo sampling. Each 'synthetic' person was then probabilistically assigned values of the remaining cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors required for predicting their CVD risk, based on data from the national census national hospitalisation and drug dispensing databases and a large regional cohort study, using Monte Carlo sampling and multiple imputation. Where possible, the synthetic population CVD risk distributions for each non-demographic risk factor were validated against independent New Zealand data sources. We were able to develop a synthetic national population with realistic multi-variable CVD risk characteristics. The construction of this population is the first step in the development of a micro-simulation model intended to investigate the likely impact of a range of national CVD risk management strategies that will inform CVD risk management guideline updates in New Zealand and elsewhere.

Assessing Alternative Modifications to the Affordable Care Act: Impact on Individual Market Premiums and Insurance Coverage.

PubMed

Eibner, Christine; Saltzman, Evan

2015-03-20

The goals of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) are to enable all legal U.S. residents to have access to affordable health insurance and to prevent sicker individuals (such as those with preexisting conditions) from being priced out of the market. The ACA also instituted several policies to stabilize premiums and to encourage enrollment among healthy individuals of all ages. The law's tax credits and cost-sharing subsidies offer a "carrot" that may encourage enrollment among some young and healthy individuals who would otherwise remain uninsured, while the individual mandate acts as a "stick" by imposing penalties on individuals who choose not to enroll. In this article, the authors use the COMPARE microsimulation model, an analytic tool that uses economic theory and data to predict the effects of health policy reforms, to estimate how eliminating the ACA's individual mandate, eliminating the law's tax credits, and combined scenarios that change these and other provisions of the act might affect 2015 individual market premiums and overall insurance coverage. Underlying these estimates is a COMPARE-based analysis of how premiums and insurance coverage outcomes depend on young adults' propensity to enroll in insurance coverage. The authors find that eliminating the ACA's tax credits and eliminating the individual mandate both increase premiums and reduce enrollment on the individual market. They also find that these key features of the ACA help to protect against adverse selection and stabilize the market by encouraging healthy people to enroll and, in the case of the tax credit, shielding subsidized enrollees from premium increases. Further, they find that individual market premiums are only modestly sensitive to young adults' propensity to enroll in insurance coverage, and ensuring market stability does not require that young adults make up a particular share of enrollees.

Health Benefits and Cost-Effectiveness of Brief Clinician Tobacco Counseling for Youth and Adults

PubMed Central

Maciosek, Michael V.; LaFrance, Amy B.; Dehmer, Steven P.; McGree, Dana A.; Xu, Zack; Flottemesch, Thomas J.; Solberg, Leif I.

2017-01-01

PURPOSE To help clinicians and care systems determine the priority for tobacco counseling in busy clinic schedules, we assessed the lifetime health and economic value of annually counseling youth to discourage smoking initiation and of annually counseling adults to encourage cessation. METHODS We conducted a microsimulation analysis to estimate the health impact and cost effectiveness of both types of tobacco counseling in a US birth cohort of 4,000,000. The model used for the analysis was constructed from nationally representative data sets and structured literature reviews. RESULTS Compared with no tobacco counseling, the model predicts that annual counseling for youth would reduce the average prevalence of smoking cigarettes during adult years by 2.0 percentage points, whereas annual counseling for adults will reduce prevalence by 3.8 percentage points. Youth counseling would prevent 42,686 smoking-attributable fatalities and increase quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) by 756,601 over the lifetime of the cohort. Adult counseling would prevent 69,901 smoking-attributable fatalities and increase QALYs by 1,044,392. Youth and adult counseling would yield net savings of $225 and $580 per person, respectively. If annual tobacco counseling was provided to the cohort during both youth and adult years, then adult smoking prevalence would be 5.5 percentage points lower compared with no counseling, and there would be 105,917 fewer smoking-attributable fatalities over their lifetimes. Only one-third of the potential health and economic benefits of counseling are being realized at current counseling rates. CONCLUSIONS Brief tobacco counseling provides substantial health benefits while producing cost savings. Both youth and adult intervention are high-priority uses of limited clinician time. PMID:28376459

Cost-effectiveness of preoperative motor mapping with navigated transcranial magnetic brain stimulation in patients with high-grade glioma.

PubMed

Butenschön, Vicki M; Ille, Sebastian; Sollmann, Nico; Meyer, Bernhard; Krieg, Sandro M

2018-06-01

OBJECTIVE Navigated transcranial magnetic stimulation (nTMS) is used to identify the motor cortex prior to surgery. Yet, there has, until now, been no published evidence on the economic impact of nTMS. This study aims to analyze the cost-effectiveness of nTMS, evaluating the incremental costs of nTMS motor mapping per additional quality-adjusted life year (QALY). By doing so, this study also provides a model allowing for future analysis of general cost-effectiveness of new neuro-oncological treatment options. METHODS The authors used a microsimulation model based on their cohort population sampled for 1000 patients over the time horizon of 2 years. A health care provider perspective was used to assemble direct costs of total treatment. Transition probabilities and health utilities were based on published literature. Effects were stated in QALYs and established for health state subgroups. RESULTS In all scenarios, preoperative mapping was considered cost-effective with a willingness-to-pay threshold < 3*per capita GDP (gross domestic product). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of nTMS versus no nTMS was 45,086 Euros/QALY. Sensitivity analyses showed robust results with a high impact of total treatment costs and utility of progression-free survival. Comparing the incremental costs caused by nTMS implementation only, the ICER decreased to 1967 Euros/QALY. CONCLUSIONS Motor mapping prior to surgery provides a cost-effective tool to improve the clinical outcome and overall survival of high-grade glioma patients in a resource-limited setting. Moreover, the model used in this study can be used in the future to analyze new treatment options in neuro-oncology in terms of their general cost-effectiveness.

Cost-effectiveness of root caries preventive treatments.

PubMed

Schwendicke, Falk; Göstemeyer, Gerd

2017-01-01

With a growing number of individuals retaining their teeth lifelong, often with periodontitis-induced root surface exposure, there is the need for cost-effective management strategies for root caries lesions. The present study aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness of root caries preventive treatments. Patients were simulated over 10 years using a Markov model. Four treatments were compared: No treatment, daily 225-800ppm fluoride rinses, chlorhexidine (CHX) varnish (2×/year), silver diamine fluoride (SDF) varnish (2×/year). Data from a systematic review were submitted to network meta-analysis for inferring relative efficacies of treatments. The health outcome was years of teeth being free of root caries. A mixed public-private payer perspective within 2016 German healthcare was taken, with costs being estimated from fee item catalogues or based on market prices. Populations with different numbers of teeth and tooth-level risks were modelled. Monte-Carlo microsimulations, univariate- and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed. In populations with 16 teeth at risk and low tooth-level risk for root caries, providing no preventive treatment was least costly, but also least effective (130 Euro, 144 years). SDF ranked next, being more costly (180 Euro), but also more effective (151 years). Payers willing to invest 8.30 Euro per root caries-free tooth-year found SDF most cost-effective. CHX varnish and fluoride rinse were not cost-effective. In populations with more teeth and high tooth-level risk, SDF was the most effective and least costly option. Root caries preventive treatments (like SDF) are effective and might even be cost-saving in high risk populations. Application of SDF can be recommended as a cost-saving treatment for prevention of root caries in patients with high risk of root caries. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comparing the cost-effectiveness of four novel risk markers for screening asymptomatic individuals to prevent cardiovascular disease (CVD) in the US population.

PubMed

van Kempen, Bob J H; Ferket, Bart S; Steyerberg, Ewout W; Max, Wendy; Myriam Hunink, M G; Fleischmann, Kirsten E

2016-01-15

High sensitivity CRP (hsCRP), coronary artery calcification on CT (CT calcium), carotid artery intima media thickness on ultrasound (cIMT) and ankle-brachial index (ABI) improve prediction of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk, but the benefit of screening with these novel risk markers in the U.S. population is unclear. A microsimulation model evaluating lifelong cost-effectiveness for individuals aged 40-85 at intermediate risk of CVD, using 2003-2004 NHANES-III (N=3736), Framingham Heart Study, U.S. Vital Statistics, meta-analyses of independent predictive effects of the four novel risk markers and treatment effects was constructed. Using both an intention-to-treat (assumes adherence <100% and incorporates disutility from taking daily medications) and an as-treated (100% adherence and no disutility) analysis, quality adjusted life years (QALYs), lifetime costs (2014 US $), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER in $/QALY gained) of screening with hsCRP, CT coronary calcium, cIMT and ABI were established compared with current practice, full adherence to current guidelines, and ubiquitous statin therapy. In the intention-to-treat analysis in men, screening with CT calcium was cost effective ($32,900/QALY) compared with current practice. In women, screening with hsCRP was cost effective ($32,467/QALY). In the as-treated analysis, statin therapy was both more effective and less costly than all other strategies for both men and women. When a substantial disutility from taking daily medication is assumed, screening men with CT coronary calcium is likely to be cost-effective whereas screening with hsCRP has value in women. The individual perceived disutility for taking daily medication should play a key role in the decision. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Harms, benefits and costs of fecal immunochemical testing versus guaiac fecal occult blood testing for colorectal cancer screening.

PubMed

Goede, S Lucas; Rabeneck, Linda; van Ballegooijen, Marjolein; Zauber, Ann G; Paszat, Lawrence F; Hoch, Jeffrey S; Yong, Jean H E; Kroep, Sonja; Tinmouth, Jill; Lansdorp-Vogelaar, Iris

2017-01-01

The ColonCancerCheck screening program for colorectal cancer (CRC) in Ontario, Canada, is considering switching from biennial guaiac fecal occult blood test (gFOBT) screening between age 50-74 years to the more sensitive, but also less specific fecal immunochemical test (FIT). The aim of this study is to estimate whether the additional benefits of FIT screening compared to gFOBT outweigh the additional costs and harms. We used microsimulation modeling to estimate quality adjusted life years (QALYs) gained and costs of gFOBT and FIT, compared to no screening, in a cohort of screening participants. We compared strategies with various age ranges, screening intervals, and cut-off levels for FIT. Cost-efficient strategies were determined for various levels of available colonoscopy capacity. Compared to no screening, biennial gFOBT screening between age 50-74 years provided 20 QALYs at a cost of CAN$200,900 per 1,000 participants, and required 17 colonoscopies per 1,000 participants per year. FIT screening was more effective and less costly. For the same level of colonoscopy requirement, biennial FIT (with a high cut-off level of 200 ng Hb/ml) between age 50-74 years provided 11 extra QALYs gained while saving CAN$333,300 per 1000 participants, compared to gFOBT. Without restrictions in colonoscopy capacity, FIT (with a low cut-off level of 50 ng Hb/ml) every year between age 45-80 years was the most cost-effective strategy providing 27 extra QALYs gained per 1000 participants, while saving CAN$448,300. Compared to gFOBT screening, switching to FIT at a high cut-off level could increase the health benefits of a CRC screening program without considerably increasing colonoscopy demand.

Economic evaluation of mobile phone text message interventions to improve adherence to HIV therapy in Kenya.

PubMed

Patel, Anik R; Kessler, Jason; Braithwaite, R Scott; Nucifora, Kimberly A; Thirumurthy, Harsha; Zhou, Qinlian; Lester, Richard T; Marra, Carlo A

2017-02-01

A surge in mobile phone availability has fueled low cost short messaging service (SMS) adherence interventions. Multiple systematic reviews have concluded that some SMS-based interventions are effective at improving antiretroviral therapy (ART) adherence, and they are hypothesized to improve retention in care. The objective of this study was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of SMS-based adherence interventions and explore the added value of retention benefits. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of weekly SMS interventions compared to standard care among HIV+ individuals initiating ART for the first time in Kenya. We used an individual level micro-simulation model populated with data from two SMS-intervention trials, an East-African HIV+ cohort and published literature. We estimated average quality adjusted life years (QALY) and lifetime HIV-related costs from a healthcare perspective. We explored a wide range of scenarios and assumptions in one-way and multivariate sensitivity analyses. We found that SMS-based adherence interventions were cost-effective by WHO standards, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $1,037/QALY. In the secondary analysis, potential retention benefits improved the cost-effectiveness of SMS intervention (ICER = $864/QALY). In multivariate sensitivity analyses, the interventions remained cost-effective in most analyses, but the ICER was highly sensitive to intervention costs, effectiveness and average cohort CD4 count at ART initiation. SMS interventions remained cost-effective in a test and treat scenario where individuals were assumed to initiate ART upon HIV detection. Effective SMS interventions would likely increase the efficiency of ART programs by improving HIV treatment outcomes at relatively low costs, and they could facilitate achievement of the UNAIDS goal of 90% viral suppression among those on ART by 2020.

Long-term cost-effectiveness of initiating treatment for painful diabetic neuropathy with pregabalin, duloxetine, gabapentin, or desipramine.

PubMed

Bellows, Brandon K; Nelson, Richard E; Oderda, Gary M; LaFleur, Joanne

2016-01-01

Painful diabetic neuropathy (PDN) affects nearly half of patients with diabetes. The objective of this study was to compare the cost-effectiveness of starting patients with PDN on pregabalin (PRE), duloxetine (DUL), gabapentin (GABA), or desipramine (DES) over a 10-year time horizon from the perspective of third-party payers in the United States. A Markov model was used to compare the costs (2013 $US) and effectiveness (quality-adjusted life-years [QALYs]) of first-line PDN treatments in 10,000 patients using microsimulation. Costs and QALYs were discounted at 3% annually. Probabilities and utilities were derived from the published literature. Costs were average wholesale price for drugs and national estimates for office visits and hospitalizations. One-way and probabilistic (PSA) sensitivity analyses were used to examine parameter uncertainty. Starting with PRE was dominated by DUL as DUL cost less and was more effective. Starting with GABA was extendedly dominated by a combination of DES and DUL. DES and DUL cost $23,468 and $25,979, while yielding 3.05 and 3.16 QALYs, respectively. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for DUL compared with DES was $22,867/QALY gained. One-way sensitivity analysis showed that the model was most sensitive to the adherence threshold and utility for mild pain. PSA showed that, at a willingness-to-pay (WTP) of $50,000/QALY, DUL was the most cost-effective option in 56.3% of the simulations, DES in 29.2%, GABA in 14.4%, and PRE in 0.1%. Starting with DUL is the most cost-effective option for PDN when WTP is greater than $22,867/QALY. Decision makers may consider starting with DUL for PDN patients.

Transition From Film to Digital Mammography

PubMed Central

van Ravesteyn, Nicolien T.; van Lier, Lisanne; Schechter, Clyde B.; Ekwueme, Donatus U.; Royalty, Janet; Miller, Jacqueline W.; Near, Aimee M.; Cronin, Kathleen A.; Heijnsdijk, Eveline A.M.; Mandelblatt, Jeanne S.; de Koning, Harry J.

2015-01-01

Introduction The National Breast and Cervical Cancer Early Detection Program (NBCCEDP) provides mammograms and diagnostic services for low-income, uninsured women aged 40–64 years. Mammography facilities within the NBCCEDP gradually shifted from plain-film to digital mammography. The purpose of this study is to assess the impact of replacing film with digital mammography on health effects (deaths averted, life-years gained [LYG]), costs (for screening and diagnostics), and number of women reached. Methods NBCCEDP 2010 data and data representative of the program’s target population were used in two established microsimulation models. Models simulated observed screening behavior including different screening intervals (annual, biennial, irregular) and starting ages (40, 50 years) for white, black, and Hispanic women. Model runs were performed in 2012. Results The models predicted 8.0–8.3 LYG per 1,000 film screens for black women, 5.9–7.5 for white women, and 4.0–4.5 for Hispanic women. For all race/ethnicity groups, digital mammography had more LYG than film mammography (2%–4%), but had higher costs (34%–35%). Assuming a fixed budget, 25%–26% fewer women could be served, resulting in 22%–24% fewer LYG if all mammograms were converted to digital. The loss in LYG could be reversed to an 8%–13% increase by only including biennial screening. Conclusions Digital could result in slightly more LYG than film mammography. However, with a fixed budget, fewer women may be served with fewer LYG. Changes in the program, such as only including biennial screening, will increase LYG/screen and could offset the potential decrease in LYG when shifting to digital mammography. PMID:25891052

Colorectal Cancer: Cost-effectiveness of Colonoscopy versus CT Colonography Screening with Participation Rates and Costs.

PubMed

van der Meulen, Miriam P; Lansdorp-Vogelaar, Iris; Goede, S Lucas; Kuipers, Ernst J; Dekker, Evelien; Stoker, Jaap; van Ballegooijen, Marjolein

2018-06-01

Purpose To compare the cost-effectiveness of computed tomographic (CT) colonography and colonoscopy screening by using data on unit costs and participation rates from a randomized controlled screening trial in a dedicated screening setting. Materials and Methods Observed participation rates and screening costs from the Colonoscopy or Colonography for Screening, or COCOS, trial were used in a microsimulation model to estimate costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained with colonoscopy and CT colonography screening. For both tests, the authors determined optimal age range and screening interval combinations assuming a 100% participation rate. Assuming observed participation for these combinations, the cost-effectiveness of both tests was compared. Extracolonic findings were not included because long-term follow-up data are lacking. Results The participation rates for colonoscopy and CT colonography were 21.5% (1276 of 5924 invitees) and 33.6% (982 of 2920 invitees), respectively. Colonoscopy was more cost-effective in the screening strategies with one or two lifetime screenings, whereas CT colonography was more cost-effective in strategies with more lifetime screenings. CT colonography was the preferred test for willingness-to-pay-thresholds of €3200 per QALY gained and higher, which is lower than the Dutch willingness-to-pay threshold of €20 000. With equal participation, colonoscopy was the preferred test independent of willingness-to-pay thresholds. The findings were robust for most of the sensitivity analyses, except with regard to relative screening costs and subsequent participation. Conclusion Because of the higher participation rates, CT colonography screening for colorectal cancer is more cost-effective than colonoscopy screening. The implementation of CT colonography screening requires previous satisfactory resolution to the question as to how best to deal with extracolonic findings. © RSNA, 2018 Online supplemental material is available for this article.

Cost-effectiveness of one versus two sample faecal immunochemical testing for colorectal cancer screening.

PubMed

Goede, S Lucas; van Roon, Aafke H C; Reijerink, Jacqueline C I Y; van Vuuren, Anneke J; Lansdorp-Vogelaar, Iris; Habbema, J Dik F; Kuipers, Ernst J; van Leerdam, Monique E; van Ballegooijen, Marjolein

2013-05-01

The sensitivity and specificity of a single faecal immunochemical test (FIT) are limited. The performance of FIT screening can be improved by increasing the screening frequency or by providing more than one sample in each screening round. This study aimed to evaluate if two-sample FIT screening is cost-effective compared with one-sample FIT. The MISCAN-colon microsimulation model was used to estimate costs and benefits of strategies with either one or two-sample FIT screening. The FIT cut-off level varied between 50 and 200 ng haemoglobin/ml, and the screening schedule was varied with respect to age range and interval. In addition, different definitions for positivity of the two-sample FIT were considered: at least one positive sample, two positive samples, or the mean of both samples being positive. Within an exemplary screening strategy, biennial FIT from the age of 55-75 years, one-sample FIT provided 76.0-97.0 life-years gained (LYG) per 1000 individuals, at a cost of € 259,000-264,000 (range reflects different FIT cut-off levels). Two-sample FIT screening with at least one sample being positive provided 7.3-12.4 additional LYG compared with one-sample FIT at an extra cost of € 50,000-59,000. However, when all screening intervals and age ranges were considered, intensifying screening with one-sample FIT provided equal or more LYG at lower costs compared with two-sample FIT. If attendance to screening does not differ between strategies it is recommended to increase the number of screening rounds with one-sample FIT screening, before considering increasing the number of FIT samples provided per screening round.

The Optimal Timing of Hepatitis C Therapy in Transplant Eligible Patients With Child B and C Cirrhosis: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.

PubMed

Tapper, Elliot B; Hughes, Michael S; Buti, Maria; Dufour, Jean-Francois; Flamm, Steve; Firdoos, Saima; Curry, Michael P; Afdhal, Nezam H

2017-05-01

Ledipasvir (LDV)/sofosbuvir (SOF) has demonstrated high efficacy, safety, and tolerability in hepatitis C virus (HCV)-infected patients. There is limited data, however, regarding the optimal timing of therapy in the context of possible liver transplantation (LT). We compared the cost-effectiveness of 12 weeks of HCV therapy before or after LT or nontreatment using a decision analytical microsimulation state-transition model for a simulated cohort of 10 000 patients with HCV Genotype 1 or 4 with Child B or C cirrhosis. All model parameters regarding the efficacy of therapy, adverse events and the effect of therapy on changes in model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) scores were derived from the SOLAR-1 and 2 trials. The simulations were repeated with 10 000 samples from the parameter distributions. The primary outcome was cost (2014 US dollars) per quality adjusted life year. Treatment before LT yielded more quality-adjusted life year for less money than treatment after LT or nontreatment. Treatment before LT was cost-effective in 100% of samples at a willingness-to-pay threshold of US $100 000 in the base-case and when the analysis was restricted to Child B alone, Child C, or MELD > 15. Treatment before transplant was not cost-effective when MELD was 6-10. In sensitivity analyses, the MELD after which treatment before transplant was cost-effective was 13 and the maximum cost of LDV/SOF therapy at which treatment before LT is cost-effective is US $177 381. From a societal perspective, HCV therapy using LDV/SOF with ribavirin before LT is the most cost-effective strategy for patients with decompensated cirrhosis and MELD score greater than 13.

The Cost-effectiveness, Health Benefits, and Financial Costs of New Antiviral Treatments for Hepatitis C Virus

PubMed Central

Rein, David B.; Wittenborn, John S.; Smith, Bryce D.; Liffmann, Danielle K.; Ward, John W.

2018-01-01

Background New hepatitis C virus (HCV) treatments deliver higher cure rates with fewer contraindications, increasing demand for treatment and healthcare costs. The cost-effectiveness of new treatments is unknown. Methods We conducted a microsimulation of guideline testing followed by alternative treatment regimens for HCV among the US population aged 20 and older to estimate cases identified, treated, sustained viral response, deaths, medical costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of different treatment options expressed as discounted lifetime costs and benefits from the healthcare perspective. Results Compared to treatment with pegylated interferon and ribavirin (PR), and a protease inhibitor for HCV genotype (G) 1 and PR alone for G2/3, treatment with PR and Sofosbuvir (PRS) for G1/4 and treatment with Sofosbuvir and ribavirin (SR) for G2/3 increased QALYs by 555 226, reduced deaths by 80 682, and increased costs by $26.2 billion at an ICER of $47 304 per QALY gained. As compared to PRS/SR, treating with an all oral regimen of Sofosbuvir and Simeprevir (SS) for G1/4 and SR for G2/3, increased QALYs by 1 110 451 and reduced deaths by an additional 164 540 at an incremental cost of $80.1 billion and an ICER of $72 169. In sensitivity analysis, where treatment with SS effectiveness was set to the list price of Viekira Pak and then Harvoni, treatment cost $24 921 and $25 405 per QALY gained as compared to PRS/SR. Conclusions New treatments are cost-effectiveness per person treated, but pent-up demand for treatment may create challenges for financing. PMID:25778747

Cost-effectiveness of molecular testing for thyroid nodules with atypia of undetermined significance cytology.

PubMed

Lee, Lawrence; How, Jacques; Tabah, Roger J; Mitmaker, Elliot J

2014-08-01

Novel molecular diagnostics, such as the gene expression classifier (GEC) and gene mutation panel (GMP) testing, may improve the management for thyroid nodules with atypia of undetermined significance (AUS) cytology. The cost-effectiveness of an approach combining both tests in different practice settings in North America is unknown. The aim of the study was to determine the cost-effectiveness of two diagnostic molecular tests, singly or in combination, for AUS thyroid nodules. We constructed a microsimulation model to investigate cost-effectiveness from US (Medicare) and Canadian healthcare system perspectives. Low-risk patients with AUS thyroid nodules were simulated. We examined five management strategies: 1) routine GEC; 2) routine GEC + selective GMP; 3) routine GMP; 4) routine GMP + selective GEC; and 5) standard management. Lifetime costs and quality-adjusted life-years were measured. From the US perspective, the routine GEC + selective GMP strategy was the dominant strategy. From the Canadian perspective, routine GEC + selective GMP cost and additional CAN$24 030 per quality-adjusted life-year gained over standard management, and was dominant over the other strategies. Sensitivity analyses reported that the decisions from both perspectives were sensitive to variations in the probability of malignancy in the nodule and the costs of the GEC and GMP. The probability of cost-effectiveness for routine GEC + selective GMP was low. In the US setting, the most cost-effective strategy was routine GEC + selective GMP. In the Canadian setting, standard management was most likely to be cost effective. The cost of these molecular diagnostics will need to be reduced to increase their cost-effectiveness for practice settings outside the United States.

Do Men and Women Need to Be Screened Differently with Fecal Immunochemical Testing? A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.

PubMed

Meulen, Miriam P van der; Kapidzic, Atija; Leerdam, Monique E van; van der Steen, Alex; Kuipers, Ernst J; Spaander, Manon C W; de Koning, Harry J; Hol, Lieke; Lansdorp-Vogelaar, Iris

2017-08-01

Background: Several studies suggest that test characteristics for the fecal immunochemical test (FIT) differ by gender, triggering a debate on whether men and women should be screened differently. We used the microsimulation model MISCAN-Colon to evaluate whether screening stratified by gender is cost-effective. Methods: We estimated gender-specific FIT characteristics based on first-round positivity and detection rates observed in a FIT screening pilot (CORERO-1). Subsequently, we used the model to estimate harms, benefits, and costs of 480 gender-specific FIT screening strategies and compared them with uniform screening. Results: Biennial FIT screening from ages 50 to 75 was less effective in women than men [35.7 vs. 49.0 quality-adjusted life years (QALY) gained, respectively] at higher costs (€42,161 vs. -€5,471, respectively). However, the incremental QALYs gained and costs of annual screening compared with biennial screening were more similar for both genders (8.7 QALYs gained and €26,394 for women vs. 6.7 QALYs gained and €20,863 for men). Considering all evaluated screening strategies, optimal gender-based screening yielded at most 7% more QALYs gained than optimal uniform screening and even resulted in equal costs and QALYs gained from a willingness-to-pay threshold of €1,300. Conclusions: FIT screening is less effective in women, but the incremental cost-effectiveness is similar in men and women. Consequently, screening stratified by gender is not more cost-effective than uniform FIT screening. Impact: Our conclusions support the current policy of uniform FIT screening. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 26(8); 1328-36. ©2017 AACR . ©2017 American Association for Cancer Research.

Modeling Dr. Dynasaur 2.0 Coverage and Finance Proposals: Effects of the Expansion of Vermont's Dr. Dynasaur Program to All Individuals Through Age 25.

PubMed

Dick, Andrew W; Price, Carter C; Woods, Dulani; Freund, Deborah Anne; McNamara, Martin; Schramm, Steven P; Berkman, Elrycc; Dehner, Tom

2017-01-01

The authors assessed an expansion of Vermont's Dr. Dynasaur program that would cover all residents age 25 and younger. The current Dr. Dynasaur program combines Vermont's Medicaid program and Child Health Insurance Program for children ages 0 through 18 to provide a seamless insurance program for those with family incomes below 317 percent of the federal poverty level. The authors used RAND's COMPARE-VT microsimulation model with Vermont-specific demographic, economic, and actuarial data to estimate the effects on health insurance coverage, costs, and premiums. They also identified the new revenues required to fund the program expansion and explored three alternative financing strategies to raise those funds: (1) an increase in the Vermont income tax, (2) a Vermont payroll tax, and (3) a Vermont business enterprise tax. The authors found that enrollment would increase by more than 260 percent under the 100-percent enrollment scenario and by nearly 200 percent under the 70-percent enrollment scenario by 2019. Not surprisingly, the children and young adults who move off employer-sponsored insurance (ESI) and into Dr. Dynasaur 2.0 have considerably lower expected health care costs than those who remain on ESI, increasing the per-person premiums by nearly $1,000 for those remaining enrolled in ESI. Annual health care expenditures per person for children and young adults in 2019 are estimated at $4,325 with Medicare prices. The combination of increased reimbursement rates, large increases in enrollment, and relatively low Dr. Dynasaur premiums (no more than $720 per year) will require significant new tax revenues to meet program obligations.

Costs and Effectiveness of Treatment Alternatives for Proximal Caries Lesions

PubMed Central

Schwendicke, Falk; Meyer-Lueckel, Hendrik; Stolpe, Michael; Dörfer, Christof Edmund; Paris, Sebastian

2014-01-01

Objectives Invasive therapy of proximal caries lesions initiates a cascade of re-treatment cycles with increasing loss of dental hard tissue. Non- and micro-invasive treatment aim at delaying this cascade and may thus reduce both the health and economic burden of such lesions. This study compared the costs and effectiveness of alternative treatments of proximal caries lesions. Methods A Markov-process model was used to simulate the events following the treatment of a proximal posterior lesion (E2/D1) in a 20-year-old patient in Germany. We compared three interventions (non-invasive; micro-invasive using resin infiltration; invasive using composite restoration). We calculated the risk of complications of initial and possible follow-up treatments and modelled time-dependent non-linear transition probabilities. Costs were calculated based on item-fee catalogues in Germany. Monte-Carlo-microsimulations were performed to compare cost-effectiveness of non- versus micro-invasive treatment and to analyse lifetime costs of all three treatments. Results Micro-invasive treatment was both more costly and more effective than non-invasive therapy, with ceiling-value-thresholds for willingness-to-pay between 16.73 € for E2 and 1.57 € for D1 lesions. Invasive treatment was the most costly strategy. Calculated costs and effectiveness were sensitive to lesion stage, patient’s age, discounting rate and assumed initial treatment costs. Conclusions Non- and micro-invasive treatments have lower long-term costs than invasive therapy of proximal lesions. Micro-invasive therapy had the highest cost-effectiveness for treating D1 lesions in young patients. Decision makers with a willingness-to-pay over 16.73 € and 1.57 € for E2 and D1 lesions, respectively, will find micro-invasive treatment more cost-effective than non-invasive therapy. PMID:24475208

Cost-Effectiveness of Chemoprevention with Proton Pump Inhibitors in Barrett’s Esophagus

PubMed Central

Freedberg, Daniel E.; Abrams, Julian A.; Wang, Y. Claire

2015-01-01

Background Proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) may reduce the risk of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) in patients with Barrett’s esophagus. PPIs are prescribed for virtually all patients with Barrett’s esophagus, irrespective of the presence of reflux symptoms, and represent a de facto chemopreventive agent in this population. However, long-term PPI use has been associated with several adverse effects, and the cost-effectiveness of chemoprevention with PPIs has not been evaluated. Aim The purpose of this study was to assess the cost-effectiveness of PPIs for the prevention of EAC in Barrett’s esophagus without reflux. Methods We designed a state-transition Markov micro-simulation model of a hypothetical cohort of 50-year-old white men with Barrett’s esophagus. We modeled chemoprevention with PPIs or no chemoprevention, with endoscopic surveillance for all treatment arms. Outcome measures were life-years, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), incident EAC cases and deaths, costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios. Results Assuming 50 % reduction in EAC, chemoprevention with PPIs was a cost-effective strategy compared to no chemoprevention. In our model, administration of PPIs cost $23,000 per patient and resulted in a gain of 0.32 QALYs for an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $12,000/QALY. In sensitivity analyses, PPIs would be cost-effective at $50,000/QALY if they reduce EAC risk by at least 19 %. Conclusions Chemoprevention with PPIs in patients with Barrett’s esophagus without reflux is cost-effective if PPIs reduce EAC by a minimum of 19 %. The identification of subgroups of Barrett’s esophagus patients at increased risk for progression would lead to more cost-effective strategies for the prevention of esophageal adenocarcinoma. PMID:24795040

Aging in the Americas: Disability-free Life Expectancy Among Adults Aged 65 and Older in the United States, Costa Rica, Mexico, and Puerto Rico.

PubMed

Payne, Collin F

2018-01-11

To estimate and compare disability-free life expectancy (DFLE) and current age patterns of disability onset and recovery from disability between the United States and countries in Latin America and the Caribbean. Disability is measured using the activities of daily living scale. Data come from longitudinal surveys of older adult populations in Costa Rica, Mexico, Puerto Rico, and the United States. Age patterns of transitions in and out of disability are modeled with a discrete-time logistic hazard model, and a microsimulation approach is used to estimate DFLE. Overall life expectancy for women aged 65 is 20.11 years in Costa Rica, 19.2 years in Mexico, 20.4 years in Puerto Rico, and 20.5 years in the United States. For men, these figures are 19.0 years in Costa Rica, 18.4 years in Mexico, 18.1 years in Puerto Rico, and 18.1 years in the United States. Proportion of remaining life spent free of disability for women at age 65 is comparable between Mexico, Puerto Rico, and the United States, with Costa Rica trailing slightly. Male estimates of DFLE are similar across the four populations. Though the older adult population of Latin America and the Caribbean lived many years exposed to poor epidemiological and public health conditions, their functional health in later life is comparable with the older adult population of the United States. © The Author(s) 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

The Effect of Treatment Advances on the Mortality Results of Breast Cancer Screening Trials: A Microsimulation Model.

PubMed

Birnbaum, Jeanette; Gadi, Vijayakrishna K; Markowitz, Elan; Etzioni, Ruth

2016-02-16

Mammography trials, which are the primary sources of evidence for screening benefit, were conducted decades ago. Whether advances in systemic therapies have rendered previously observed benefits of screening less significant is unknown. To compare the outcomes of breast cancer screening trials had they been conducted using contemporary systemic treatments with outcomes of trials conducted with previously used treatments. Computer simulation model of 3 virtual screening trials with similar reductions in advanced-stage cancer cases but reflecting treatment patterns in 1975 (prechemotherapy era), 1999, or 2015 (treatment according to receptor status). Meta-analyses of screening and treatment trials; study of dissemination of primary systemic treatments; SEER (Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results) registry. U.S. women aged 50 to 74 years. 10 and 25 years. Population. Mammography, chemotherapy, tamoxifen, aromatase inhibitors, and trastuzumab. Breast cancer mortality rate ratio (MRR) and absolute risk reduction (ARR) obtained by the difference in cumulative breast cancer mortality between control and screening groups. At 10 years, screening in a 1975 trial yielded an MRR of 90% and an ARR of 5 deaths per 10,000 women. A 2015 screening trial yielded a 10-year MRR of 90% and an ARR of 3 deaths per 10,000 women. Greater reductions in advanced-stage disease yielded a greater screening effect, but MRRs remained similar across trials. However, ARRs were consistently lower under contemporary treatments. When contemporary treatments were available only for early-stage cases, the MRR was 88%. Disease models simplify reality and cannot capture all breast cancer subtypes. Advances in systemic therapies for breast cancer have not substantively reduced the relative benefits of screening but have likely reduced the absolute benefits because of their positive effect on breast cancer survival. University of Washington and National Cancer Institute.

Estimating the Cost-Effectiveness of Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis to Reduce HIV-1 and HSV-2 Incidence in HIV-Serodiscordant Couples in South Africa

PubMed Central

Jewell, Britta L.; Cremin, Ide; Pickles, Michael; Celum, Connie; Baeten, Jared M.; Delany-Moretlwe, Sinead; Hallett, Timothy B.

2015-01-01

Objective To estimate the cost-effectiveness of daily oral tenofovir-based PrEP, with a protective effect against HSV-2 as well as HIV-1, among HIV-1 serodiscordant couples in South Africa. Methods We incorporated HSV-2 acquisition, transmission, and interaction with HIV-1 into a microsimulation model of heterosexual HIV-1 serodiscordant couples in South Africa, with use of PrEP for the HIV-1 uninfected partner prior to ART initiation for the HIV-1 1infected partner, and for one year thereafter. Results We estimate the cost per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted for two scenarios, one in which PrEP has no effect on reducing HSV-2 acquisition, and one in which there is a 33% reduction. After a twenty-year intervention, the cost per DALY averted is estimated to be $10,383 and $9,757, respectively – a 6% reduction, given the additional benefit of reduced HSV-2 acquisition. If all couples are discordant for both HIV-1 and HSV-2, the cost per DALY averted falls to $1,445, which shows that the impact is limited by HSV-2 concordance in couples. Conclusion After a 20-year PrEP intervention, the cost per DALY averted with a reduction in HSV-2 is estimated to be modestly lower than without any effect, providing an increase of health benefits in addition to HIV-1 prevention at no extra cost. The small degree of the effect is in part due to a high prevalence of HSV-2 infection in HIV-1 serodiscordant couples in South Africa. PMID:25616135

Assessment of the Economic Impact of Belimumab for the Treatment of Systemic Lupus Erythematosus in the Italian Setting: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.

PubMed

Pierotti, Francesca; Palla, Ilaria; Treur, Maarten; Pippo, Lara; Turchetti, Giuseppe

2015-01-01

The purpose of this analysis is to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of belimumab, a new biological treatment specifically developed for the treatment of Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (SLE), in the Italian setting. SLE is a chronic non-organ specific autoimmune disease characterized by a disregulation of the immune system that involves many organs and systems. A cost-effectiveness micro-simulation model with a lifetime horizon originally developed for the UK was adapted to the Italian setting. The analysis compared Standard of Care (SoC) alone vs belimumab plus SoC from a National Healthcare Service (NHS) and societal perspective. Health-economic consequences of treatments and organ damage progression were calculated. When available, Italian data were used, otherwise UK costs were converted using Purchasing Power Parities (PPPs). Utility values were based on the EQ-5D™ assessments in the belimumab clinical trials (BLISS 52 and 76). Results were discounted with 3% for costs and effects. A maximum belimumab treatment duration of 6 years was assumed and wastage costs were considered. Cost per life year gained (Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratio, ICER) and cost per Quality Adjusted Life Year (QALY) (Incremental Cost-Utility Ratio, ICUR) were €22,990 and €32,859, respectively. These values reduced to €20,119 and €28,754, respectively, when indirect costs were included. It may be concluded that in the Italian setting and according to the guidelines of the Italian Association of Health Economics (IAHE), belimumab was shown to be cost-effective, in terms of both ICER and ICUR, (€25-40,000/QALY).

Prediction of cervical cancer incidence in England, UK, up to 2040, under four scenarios: a modelling study.

PubMed

Castanon, Alejandra; Landy, Rebecca; Pesola, Francesca; Windridge, Peter; Sasieni, Peter

2018-01-01

In the next 25 years, the epidemiology of cervical cancer in England, UK, will change: human papillomavirus (HPV) screening will be the primary test for cervical cancer. Additionally, the proportion of women screened regularly is decreasing and women who received the HPV vaccine are due to attend screening for the first time. Therefore, we aimed to estimate how vaccination against HPV, changes to the screening test, and falling screening coverage will affect cervical cancer incidence in England up to 2040. We did a data modelling study that combined results from population modelling of incidence trends, observable data from the individual level with use of a generalised linear model, and microsimulation of unobservable disease states. We estimated age-specific absolute risks of cervical cancer in the absence of screening (derived from individual level data). We used an age period cohort model to estimate birth cohort effects. We multiplied the absolute risks by the age cohort effects to provide absolute risks of cervical cancer for unscreened women in different birth cohorts. We obtained relative risks (RRs) of cervical cancer by screening history (never screened, regularly screened, or lapsed attender) using data from a population-based case-control study for unvaccinated women, and using a microsimulation model for vaccinated women. RRs of primary HPV screening were relative to cytology. We used the proportion of women in each 5-year age group (25-29 years to 75-79 years) and 5-year period (2016-20 to 2036-40) who have a combination of screening and vaccination history, and weighted to estimate the population incidence. The primary outcome was the number of cases and rates per 100 000 women under four scenarios: no changes to current screening coverage or vaccine uptake and HPV primary testing from 2019 (status quo), changing the year in which HPV primary testing is introduced, introduction of the nine-valent vaccine, and changes to cervical screening coverage. The status quo scenario estimated that the peak age of cancer diagnosis will shift from the ages of 25-29 years in 2011-15 to 55-59 years in 2036-40. Unvaccinated women born between 1975 and 1990 were predicted to have a relatively high risk of cervical cancer throughout their lives. Introduction of primary HPV screening from 2019 could reduce age-standardised rates of cervical cancer at ages 25-64 years by 19%, from 15·1 in 2016 to 12·2 per 100 000 women as soon as 2028. Vaccination against HPV types 16 and 18 (HPV 16/18) could see cervical cancer rates in women aged 25-29 years decrease by 55% (from 20·9 in 2011-15 to 9·5 per 100 000 women by 2036-40), and introduction of nine-valent vaccination from 2019 compared with continuing vaccination against HPV 16/18 will reduce rates by a further 36% (from 9·5 to 6·1 per 100 000 women) by 2036-40. Women born before 1991 will not benefit directly from vaccination; therefore, despite vaccination and primary HPV screening with current screening coverage, European age-standardised rates of cervical cancer at ages 25-79 years will decrease by only 10% (from 12·8 in 2011-15 to 11·5 per 100 000 women in 2036-40). If screening coverage fell to 50%, European age-standardised rates could increase by 27% (from 12·8 to 16·3 per 100 000 by 2036-40). Going forward, focus should be placed on scenarios that offer less intensive screening for vaccinated women and more on increasing coverage and incorporation of new technologies to enhance current cervical screening among unvaccinated women. Jo's Cervical Cancer Trust and Cancer Research UK. Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Cost-effectiveness and budget impact of hepatitis C virus treatment with sofosbuvir and ledipasvir in the United States.

PubMed

Chhatwal, Jagpreet; Kanwal, Fasiha; Roberts, Mark S; Dunn, Michael A

2015-03-17

Sofosbuvir and ledipasvir, which have recently been approved for treatment of chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, are more efficacious and safer than the old standard of care (oSOC) but are substantially more expensive. Whether and in which patients their improved efficacy justifies their increased cost is unclear. To evaluate the cost-effectiveness and budget impact of sofosbuvir and ledipasvir. Microsimulation model of the natural history of HCV infection. Published literature. Treatment-naive and treatment-experienced HCV population defined on the basis of HCV genotype, age, and fibrosis distribution in the United States. Lifetime. Third-party payer. Simulation of sofosbuvir-ledipasvir compared with the oSOC (interferon-based therapies). Quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs), and 5-year spending on antiviral drugs. Sofosbuvir-based therapies added 0.56 QALY relative to the oSOC at an ICER of $55 400 per additional QALY. The ICERs ranged from $9700 to $284 300 per QALY depending on the patient's status with respect to treatment history, HCV genotype, and presence of cirrhosis. At a willingness-to-pay threshold of $100 000 per QALY, sofosbuvir-based therapies were cost-effective in 83% of treatment-naive and 81% of treatment-experienced patients. Compared with the oSOC, treating eligible HCV-infected persons in the United States with the new drugs would cost an additional $65 billion in the next 5 years, whereas the resulting cost offsets would be $16 billion. Results were sensitive to drug price, drug efficacy, and quality of life after successful treatment. Data on real-world effectiveness of new antivirals are lacking. Treatment of HCV is cost-effective in most patients, but additional resources and value-based patient prioritization are needed to manage patients with HCV. National Institutes of Health.

The Clinical and Economic Impact of Probiotics Consumption on Respiratory Tract Infections: Projections for Canada.

PubMed

Lenoir-Wijnkoop, Irene; Gerlier, Laetitia; Roy, Denis; Reid, Gregor

2016-01-01

There is accumulating evidence supporting the use of probiotics, which are defined as "live micro-organisms which, when administered in adequate amounts, confer a health benefit on the host", as a preventive measure against respiratory tract infections (RTI). Two recent meta-analyses showed probiotic consumption (daily intake of 107 to 1010 CFU in any form for up to 3 months) significantly reduced RTI duration, frequency, antibiotic use and work absenteeism. The aim of this study was to assess the impact of probiotic use in terms of number of RTI episodes and days averted, and the number of antibiotic prescriptions and missed workdays averted, in the general population of Canada. In addition, the corresponding economic impact from both a healthcare payer and a productivity perspective was estimated. A microsimulation model was developed to reproduce the Canadian population (sample rate of 1/1000 = 35 540 individuals) employing age and gender. RTI incidence was taken from FluWatch consultation rates for influenza-like illness (2013-14) and StatCan all-cause consultations statistics. The model was calibrated on a 2.1% RTI annual incidence in the general population (5.2 million RTI days) and included known risk factors (smoking status, shared living conditions and vaccination status). RTI-related antibiotic prescriptions and work absenteeism were obtained from the literature. The results indicate that probiotic use saved 573 000-2.3 million RTI-days, according to the YHEC-Cochrane scenarios respectively. These reductions were associated with an avoidance of 52 000-84 000 antibiotic courses and 330 000-500 000 sick-leave days. A projection of corresponding costs reductions amounted to Can$1.3-8.9 million from the healthcare payer perspective and Can$61.2-99.7 million when adding productivity losses. The analysis shows that the potential of probiotics to reduce RTI-related events may have a substantial clinical and economic impact in Canada.

Gastric adenocarcinoma screening and prevention in the era of new biomarker and endoscopic technologies: a cost-effectiveness analysis.

PubMed

Yeh, Jennifer M; Hur, Chin; Ward, Zachary; Schrag, Deborah; Goldie, Sue J

2016-04-01

To estimate the cost-effectiveness of noncardia gastric adenocarcinoma (NCGA) screening strategies based on new biomarker and endoscopic technologies. Using an intestinal-type NCGA microsimulation model, we evaluated the following one-time screening strategies for US men: (1) serum pepsinogen to detect gastric atrophy (with endoscopic follow-up of positive screen results), (2) endoscopic screening to detect dysplasia and asymptomatic cancer (with endoscopic mucosal resection (EMR) treatment for detected lesions) and (3) Helicobacter pylori screening and treatment. Screening performance, treatment effectiveness, cancer and cost data were based on published literature and databases. Subgroups included current, former and never smokers. Outcomes included lifetime cancer risk and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs), expressed as cost per quality-adjusted-life-year (QALY) gained. Screening the general population at age 50 years reduced the lifetime intestinal-type NCGA risk (0.24%) by 26.4% with serum pepsinogen screening, 21.2% with endoscopy and EMR and 0.2% with H. pylori screening/treatment. Targeting current smokers reduced the lifetime risk (0.35%) by 30.8%, 25.5%, and 0.1%, respectively. For all subgroups, serum pepsinogen screening was more effective and more cost-effective than all other strategies, although its ICER varied from $76,000/QALY (current smokers) to $105,400/QALY (general population). Results were sensitive to H. pylori prevalence, screen age and serum pepsinogen test sensitivity. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis found that at a $100,000/QALY willingness-to-pay threshold, the probability that serum pepsinogen screening was preferred was 0.97 for current smokers. Although not warranted for the general population, targeting high-risk smokers for serum pepsinogen screening may be a cost-effective strategy to reduce intestinal-type NCGA mortality. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Public health impact and economic evaluation of vitamin D-fortified dairy products for fracture prevention in France.

PubMed

Hiligsmann, M; Burlet, N; Fardellone, P; Al-Daghri, N; Reginster, J-Y

2017-03-01

The recommended intake of vitamin D-fortified dairy products can substantially decrease the burden of osteoporotic fractures and seems an economically beneficial strategy in the general French population aged over 60 years. This study aims to assess the public health and economic impact of vitamin D-fortified dairy products in the general French population aged over 60 years. We estimated the lifetime health impacts expressed in number of fractures prevented, life years gained, and quality-adjusted life years (QALY) gained of the recommended intake of dairy products in the general French population over 60 years for 1 year (2015). A validated microsimulation model was used to simulate three age cohorts for both women and men (60-69, 70-79, and >80 years). The incremental cost per QALY gained of vitamin D-fortified dairy products compared to the absence of appropriate intake was estimated in different populations, assuming the cost of two dairy products per day in base case. The total lifetime number of fractures decreased by 64,932 for the recommended intake of dairy products in the general population over 60 years, of which 46,472 and 18,460 occurred in women and men, respectively. In particular, 15,087 and 4413 hip fractures could be prevented in women and men. Vitamin D-fortified dairy products also resulted in 32,569 QALYs and 29,169 life years gained. The cost per QALY gained of appropriate dairy intake was estimated at €58,244 and fall below a threshold of €30,000 per QALY gained in women over 70 years and in men over 80 years. Vitamin D-fortified dairy products have the potential to substantially reduce the burden of osteoporotic fractures in France and seem an economically beneficial strategy, especially in the general population aged above 70 years.

The Clinical and Economic Impact of Probiotics Consumption on Respiratory Tract Infections: Projections for Canada

PubMed Central

Gerlier, Laetitia; Roy, Denis; Reid, Gregor

2016-01-01

Introduction There is accumulating evidence supporting the use of probiotics, which are defined as “live micro-organisms which, when administered in adequate amounts, confer a health benefit on the host”, as a preventive measure against respiratory tract infections (RTI). Two recent meta-analyses showed probiotic consumption (daily intake of 107 to 1010 CFU in any form for up to 3 months) significantly reduced RTI duration, frequency, antibiotic use and work absenteeism. Objectives The aim of this study was to assess the impact of probiotic use in terms of number of RTI episodes and days averted, and the number of antibiotic prescriptions and missed workdays averted, in the general population of Canada. In addition, the corresponding economic impact from both a healthcare payer and a productivity perspective was estimated. Methods A microsimulation model was developed to reproduce the Canadian population (sample rate of 1/1000 = 35 540 individuals) employing age and gender. RTI incidence was taken from FluWatch consultation rates for influenza-like illness (2013–14) and StatCan all-cause consultations statistics. The model was calibrated on a 2.1% RTI annual incidence in the general population (5.2 million RTI days) and included known risk factors (smoking status, shared living conditions and vaccination status). RTI-related antibiotic prescriptions and work absenteeism were obtained from the literature. Results The results indicate that probiotic use saved 573 000–2.3 million RTI-days, according to the YHEC–Cochrane scenarios respectively. These reductions were associated with an avoidance of 52 000–84 000 antibiotic courses and 330 000–500 000 sick-leave days. A projection of corresponding costs reductions amounted to Can$1.3–8.9 million from the healthcare payer perspective and Can$61.2–99.7 million when adding productivity losses. Conclusion The analysis shows that the potential of probiotics to reduce RTI-related events may have a substantial clinical and economic impact in Canada. PMID:27832195

Quantitative estimates of the impact of sensitivity and specificity in mammographic screening in Germany.

PubMed Central

Warmerdam, P G; de Koning, H J; Boer, R; Beemsterboer, P M; Dierks, M L; Swart, E; Robra, B P

1997-01-01

STUDY OBJECTIVE: To estimate quantitatively the impact of the quality of mammographic screening (in terms of sensitivity and specificity) on the effects and costs of nationwide breast cancer screening. DESIGN: Three plausible "quality" scenarios for a biennial breast cancer screening programme for women aged 50-69 in Germany were analysed in terms of costs and effects using the Microsimulation Screening Analysis model on breast cancer screening and the natural history of breast cancer. Firstly, sensitivity and specificity in the expected situation (or "baseline" scenario) were estimated from a model based analysis of empirical data from 35,000 screening examinations in two German pilot projects. In the second "high quality" scenario, these properties were based on the more favourable diagnostic results from breast cancer screening projects and the nationwide programme in The Netherlands. Thirdly, a worst case, "low quality" hypothetical scenario with a 25% lower sensitivity than that experienced in The Netherlands was analysed. SETTING: The epidemiological and social situation in Germany in relation to mass screening for breast cancer. RESULTS: In the "baseline" scenario, an 11% reduction in breast cancer mortality was expected in the total German female population, ie 2100 breast cancer deaths would be prevented per year. It was estimated that the "high quality" scenario, based on Dutch experience, would lead to the prevention of an additional 200 deaths per year and would also cut the number of false positive biopsy results by half. The cost per life year gained varied from Deutsche mark (DM) 15,000 on the "high quality" scenario to DM 21,000 in the "low quality" setting. CONCLUSIONS: Up to 20% of the total costs of a screening programme can be spent on quality improvement in order to achieve a substantially higher reduction in mortality and reduce undesirable side effects while retaining the same cost effectiveness ratio as that estimated from the German data. PMID:9196649

Expected population weight and diabetes impact of the 1-peso-per-litre tax to sugar sweetened beverages in Mexico.

PubMed

Barrientos-Gutierrez, Tonatiuh; Zepeda-Tello, Rodrigo; Rodrigues, Eliane R; Colchero, M Arantxa; Rojas-Martínez, Rosalba; Lazcano-Ponce, Eduardo; Hernández-Ávila, Mauricio; Rivera-Dommarco, Juan; Meza, Rafael

2017-01-01

What effect on body mass index, obesity and diabetes can we expect from the 1-peso-per-litre tax to sugar sweetened beverages in Mexico? Using recently published estimates of the reductions in beverage purchases due to the tax, we modelled its expected long-term impacts on body mass index (BMI), obesity and diabetes. Microsimulations based on a nationally representative dataset were used to estimate the impact of the tax on BMI and obesity. A Markov population model, built upon an age-period-cohort model of diabetes incidence, was used to estimate the impact on diagnosed diabetes in Mexico. To analyse the potential of tax increases we also modelled a 2-peso-per-litre tax scenario. Ten years after the implementation of the tax, we expect an average reduction of 0.15 kg/m2 per person, which translates into a 2.54% reduction in obesity prevalence. People in the lowest level of socioeconomic status and those between 20 and 35 years of age showed the largest reductions in BMI and overweight and obesity prevalence. Simulations show that by 2030, under the current implementation of 1-peso-per-litre, the tax would prevent 86 to 134 thousand cases of diabetes. Overall, the 2-peso-per-litre scenario is expected to produce twice as much of a reduction. These estimates assume the tax effect on consumption remains stable over time. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess the robustness of findings; similar results were obtained with various parameter assumptions and alternative modelling approaches. The sugar-sweetened beverages tax in Mexico is expected to produce sizable and sustained reductions in obesity and diabetes. Increasing the tax could produce larger benefits. While encouraging, estimates will need to be updated once data on direct changes in consumption becomes available.

Expected population weight and diabetes impact of the 1-peso-per-litre tax to sugar sweetened beverages in Mexico

PubMed Central

Zepeda-Tello, Rodrigo; Rodrigues, Eliane R.; Colchero-Aragonés, Arantxa; Rojas-Martínez, Rosalba; Lazcano-Ponce, Eduardo; Hernández-Ávila, Mauricio; Rivera-Dommarco, Juan; Meza, Rafael

2017-01-01

Study question What effect on body mass index, obesity and diabetes can we expect from the 1-peso-per-litre tax to sugar sweetened beverages in Mexico? Methods Using recently published estimates of the reductions in beverage purchases due to the tax, we modelled its expected long-term impacts on body mass index (BMI), obesity and diabetes. Microsimulations based on a nationally representative dataset were used to estimate the impact of the tax on BMI and obesity. A Markov population model, built upon an age-period-cohort model of diabetes incidence, was used to estimate the impact on diagnosed diabetes in Mexico. To analyse the potential of tax increases we also modelled a 2-peso-per-litre tax scenario. Study answer and limitations Ten years after the implementation of the tax, we expect an average reduction of 0.15 kg/m2 per person, which translates into a 2.54% reduction in obesity prevalence. People in the lowest level of socioeconomic status and those between 20 and 35 years of age showed the largest reductions in BMI and overweight and obesity prevalence. Simulations show that by 2030, under the current implementation of 1-peso-per-litre, the tax would prevent 86 to 134 thousand cases of diabetes. Overall, the 2-peso-per-litre scenario is expected to produce twice as much of a reduction. These estimates assume the tax effect on consumption remains stable over time. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess the robustness of findings; similar results were obtained with various parameter assumptions and alternative modelling approaches. What this study adds The sugar-sweetened beverages tax in Mexico is expected to produce sizable and sustained reductions in obesity and diabetes. Increasing the tax could produce larger benefits. While encouraging, estimates will need to be updated once data on direct changes in consumption becomes available. PMID:28520716

Public Health and Budget Impact of Probiotics on Common Respiratory Tract Infections: A Modelling Study

PubMed Central

Lenoir-Wijnkoop, Irene; Gerlier, Laetitia; Bresson, Jean-Louis; Le Pen, Claude; Berdeaux, Gilles

2015-01-01

Objectives Two recent meta-analyses by the York Health Economics Consortium (YHEC) and Cochrane demonstrated probiotic efficacy in reducing the duration and number of common respiratory tract infections (CRTI) and associated antibiotic prescriptions. A health-economic analysis was undertaken to estimate the public health and budget consequences of a generalized probiotic consumption in France. Methods A virtual age- and gender-standardized population was generated using a Markov microsimulation model. CRTI risk factors incorporated into this model were age, active/passive smoking and living in a community setting. Incidence rates and resource utilization were based on the 2011-2012 flu season and retrieved from the French GPs Sentinelles network. Results of both meta-analyses were independently applied to the French population to estimate CRTI events, assuming a generalized probiotic use compared to no probiotics during winter months: -0.77 days/CRTI episode (YHEC scenario) or odds-ratio 0.58 for ≥1 CRTI episode (Cochrane scenario) with vs. without probiotics. Economic perspectives were National Health System (NHS), society, family. Outcomes included cost savings related to the reduced numbers of CRTI episodes, days of illness, number of antibiotic courses, sick leave days, medical and indirect costs. Results For France, generalized probiotic use would save 2.4 million CRTI-days, 291,000 antibiotic courses and 581,000 sick leave days, based on YHEC data. Applying the Cochrane data, reductions were 6.6 million CRTI days, 473,000 antibiotic courses and 1.5 million sick days. From the NHS perspective, probiotics’ economic impact was about €14.6 million saved according to YHEC and €37.7 million according to Cochrane. Higher savings were observed in children, active smokers and people with more frequent human contacts. Conclusions Public health and budget impact of probiotics are substantial, whether they reduce CRTI episodes frequency or duration. Noteworthy, the 2011-12 winter CRTI incidence was low and this analysis focused on the fraction of CRTI patients consulting a practitioner. PMID:25859849

The cost-effectiveness, health benefits, and financial costs of new antiviral treatments for hepatitis C virus.

PubMed

Rein, David B; Wittenborn, John S; Smith, Bryce D; Liffmann, Danielle K; Ward, John W

2015-07-15

New hepatitis C virus (HCV) treatments deliver higher cure rates with fewer contraindications, increasing demand for treatment and healthcare costs. The cost-effectiveness of new treatments is unknown. We conducted a microsimulation of guideline testing followed by alternative treatment regimens for HCV among the US population aged 20 and older to estimate cases identified, treated, sustained viral response, deaths, medical costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of different treatment options expressed as discounted lifetime costs and benefits from the healthcare perspective. Compared to treatment with pegylated interferon and ribavirin (PR), and a protease inhibitor for HCV genotype (G) 1 and PR alone for G2/3, treatment with PR and Sofosbuvir (PRS) for G1/4 and treatment with Sofosbuvir and ribavirin (SR) for G2/3 increased QALYs by 555 226, reduced deaths by 80 682, and increased costs by $26.2 billion at an ICER of $47 304 per QALY gained. As compared to PRS/SR, treating with an all oral regimen of Sofosbuvir and Simeprevir (SS) for G1/4 and SR for G2/3, increased QALYs by 1 110 451 and reduced deaths by an additional 164 540 at an incremental cost of $80.1 billion and an ICER of $72 169. In sensitivity analysis, where treatment with SS effectiveness was set to the list price of Viekira Pak and then Harvoni, treatment cost $24 921 and $25 405 per QALY gained as compared to PRS/SR. New treatments are cost-effectiveness per person treated, but pent-up demand for treatment may create challenges for financing. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Modelling the implications of reducing smoking prevalence: the public health and economic benefits of achieving a 'tobacco-free' UK.

PubMed

Hunt, Daniel; Knuchel-Takano, André; Jaccard, Abbygail; Bhimjiyani, Arti; Retat, Lise; Selvarajah, Chit; Brown, Katrina; Webber, Laura L; Brown, Martin

2018-03-01

Smoking is still the most preventable cause of cancer, and a leading cause of premature mortality and health inequalities in the UK. This study modelled the health and economic impacts of achieving a 'tobacco-free' ambition (TFA) where, by 2035, less than 5% of the population smoke tobacco across all socioeconomic groups. A non-linear multivariate regression model was fitted to cross-sectional smoking data to create projections to 2035. These projections were used to predict the future incidence and costs of 17 smoking-related diseases using a microsimulation approach. The health and economic impacts of achieving a TFA were evaluated against a predicted baseline scenario, where current smoking trends continue. If trends continue, the prevalence of smoking in the UK was projected to be 10% by 2035-well above a TFA. If this ambition were achieved by 2035, it could mean 97 300 +/- 5 300 new cases of smoking-related diseases are avoided by 2035 (tobacco-related cancers: 35 900+/- 4 100; chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: 29 000 +/- 2 700; stroke: 24 900 +/- 2 700; coronary heart disease: 7600 +/- 2 700), including around 12 350 diseases avoided in 2035 alone. The consequence of this health improvement is predicted to avoid £67 +/- 8 million in direct National Health Service and social care costs, and £548 million in non-health costs, in 2035 alone. These findings strengthen the case to set bold targets on long-term declines in smoking prevalence to achieve a tobacco 'endgame'. Results demonstrate the health and economic benefits that meeting a TFA can achieve over just 20 years. Effective ambitions and policy interventions are needed to reduce the disease and economic burden of smoking. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Modelling the implications of reducing smoking prevalence: the benefits of increasing the UK tobacco duty escalator to public health and economic outcomes.

PubMed

Knuchel-Takano, Andre; Hunt, Daniel; Jaccard, Abbygail; Bhimjiyani, Arti; Brown, Martin; Retat, Lise; Brown, Katrina; Hinde, Sebastian; Selvarajah, Chit; Bauld, Linda; Webber, Laura

2017-12-06

Taxing tobacco is one of the most effective ways to reduce smoking prevalence, mitigate its devastating consequential health harms and progress towards a tobacco-free society. This study modelled the health and economic impacts of increasing the existing cigarette tobacco duty escalator (TDE) in the UK from the current 2% above consumer price inflation to 5%. A two-stage modelling process was used. First, a non-linear multivariate regression model was fitted to cross-sectional smoking data, creating longitudinal projections from 2015 to 2035. Second, these projections were used to predict the future incidence, prevalence and cost of 17 smoking-related diseases using a Monte Carlo microsimulation approach. A sustained increase in the duty escalator was evaluated against a baseline of continuing historical smoking trends and the existing duty escalator. A sustained increase in the TDE is projected to reduce adult smoking prevalence to 6% in 2035, from 10% in a baseline scenario. After increasing the TDE, only 65% of female and 60% of male would-be smokers would actually be smoking in 2035. The intervention is projected to avoid around 75 200 new cases of smoking-related diseases between 2015 and 2035. In 2035 alone, £49 m in National Health Service and social care costs and £192 m in societal premature mortality and morbidity costs are projected to be avoided. Increasing the UK TDE to 5% above inflation could effectively reduce smoking prevalence, prevent diseases and avoid healthcare costs. It would deliver substantial progress towards a tobacco-free society and should be implemented by the UK Government with urgency. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Clinical and Economic Impact of a Digital, Remotely-Delivered Intensive Behavioral Counseling Program on Medicare Beneficiaries at Risk for Diabetes and Cardiovascular Disease.

PubMed

Chen, Fang; Su, Wenqing; Becker, Shawn H; Payne, Mike; Castro Sweet, Cynthia M; Peters, Anne L; Dall, Timothy M

2016-01-01

Type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease impose substantial clinical and economic burdens for seniors (age 65 and above) and the Medicare program. Intensive Behavioral Counseling (IBC) interventions like the National Diabetes Prevention Program (NDPP), have demonstrated effectiveness in reducing excess body weight and lowering or delaying morbidity onset. This paper estimated the potential health implications and medical savings of a digital version of IBC modeled after the NDPP. Participants in this digital IBC intervention, the Omada program, include 1,121 overweight or obese seniors with additional risk factors for diabetes or heart disease. Weight changes were objectively measured via participant use of a networked weight scale. Participants averaged 6.8% reduction in body weight within 26 weeks, and 89% of participants completed 9 or more of the 16 core phase lessons. We used a Markov-based microsimulation model to simulate the impact of weight loss on future health states and medical expenditures over 10 years. Cumulative per capita medical expenditure savings over 3, 5 and 10 years ranged from $1,720 to 1,770 (3 years), $3,840 to $4,240 (5 years) and $11,550 to $14,200 (10 years). The range reflects assumptions of weight re-gain similar to that seen in the DPP clinical trial (lower bound) or minimal weight re-gain aligned with age-adjusted national averages (upper bound). The estimated net economic benefit after IBC costs is $10,250 to $12,840 cumulative over 10 years. Simulation outcomes suggest reduced incidence of diabetes by 27-41% for participants with prediabetes, and stroke by approximately 15% over 5 years. A digital, remotely-delivered IBC program can help seniors at risk for diabetes and cardiovascular disease achieve significant weight loss, reduces risk for diabetes and cardiovascular disease, and achieve meaningful medical cost savings. These findings affirm recommendations for IBC coverage by the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force.

The Impact of Diabetes on the Labour Force Participation, Savings and Retirement Income of Workers Aged 45-64 Years in Australia

PubMed Central

Schofield, Deborah; Cunich, Michelle; Kelly, Simon; Passey, Megan E.; Shrestha, Rupendra; Callander, Emily; Tanton, Robert; Veerman, Lennert

2015-01-01

Background Diabetes is a debilitating and costly condition. The costs of reduced labour force participation due to diabetes can have severe economic impacts on individuals by reducing their living standards during working and retirement years. Methods A purpose-built microsimulation model of Australians aged 45-64 years in 2010, Health&WealthMOD2030, was used to estimate the lost savings at age 65 due to premature exit from the labour force because of diabetes. Regression models were used to examine the differences between the projected savings and retirement incomes of people at age 65 for those currently working full or part time with no chronic health condition, full or part time with diabetes, and people not in the labour force due to diabetes. Results All Australians aged 45-65 years who are employed full time in 2010 will have accumulated some savings at age 65; whereas only 90.5% of those who are out of the labour force due to diabetes will have done so. By the time they reach age 65, those who retire from the labour force early due to diabetes have a median projected savings of less than $35,000. This is far lower than the median value of total savings for those who remained in the labour force full time with no chronic condition, projected to have $638,000 at age 65. Conclusions Not only does premature retirement due to diabetes limit the immediate income available to individuals with this condition, but it also reduces their long-term financial capacity by reducing their accumulated savings and the income these savings could generate in retirement. Policies designed to support the labour force participation of those with diabetes, or interventions to prevent the onset of the disease itself, should be a priority to preserve living standards comparable with others who do not suffer from this condition. PMID:25706941

Pneumococcal Transmission and Disease In Silico: A Microsimulation Model of the Indirect Effects of Vaccination

PubMed Central

Nurhonen, Markku; Cheng, Allen C.; Auranen, Kari

2013-01-01

Background The degree and time frame of indirect effects of vaccination (serotype replacement and herd immunity) are key determinants in assessing the net effectiveness of vaccination with pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCV) in control of pneumococcal disease. Using modelling, we aimed to quantify these effects and their dependence on coverage of vaccination and the vaccine's efficacy against susceptibility to pneumococcal carriage. Methods and Findings We constructed an individual-based simulation model that explores the effects of large-scale PCV programmes and applied it in a developed country setting (Finland). A population structure with transmission of carriage taking place within relevant mixing groups (families, day care groups, schools and neighbourhoods) was considered in order to properly assess the dependency of herd immunity on coverage of vaccination and vaccine efficacy against carriage. Issues regarding potential serotype replacement were addressed by employing a novel competition structure between multiple pneumococcal serotypes. Model parameters were calibrated from pre-vaccination data about the age-specific carriage prevalence and serotype distribution. The model predicts that elimination of vaccine-type carriage and disease among those vaccinated and, due to a substantial herd effect, also among the general population takes place within 5–10 years since the onset of a PCV programme with high (90%) coverage of vaccination and moderate (50%) vaccine efficacy against acquisition of carriage. A near-complete replacement of vaccine-type carriage by non-vaccine-type carriage occurs within the same time frame. Conclusions The changed patterns in pneumococcal carriage after PCV vaccination predicted by the model are unequivocal. The overall effect on disease incidence depends crucially on the magnitude of age- and serotype-specific case-to-carrier ratios of the remaining serotypes relative to those of the vaccine types. Thus the availability of reliable data on the incidence of both pneumococcal carriage and disease is essential in assessing the net effectiveness of PCV vaccination in a given epidemiological setting. PMID:23457504

Public health impact of achieving 80% colorectal cancer screening rates in the United States by 2018.

PubMed

Meester, Reinier G S; Doubeni, Chyke A; Zauber, Ann G; Goede, S Luuk; Levin, Theodore R; Corley, Douglas A; Jemal, Ahmedin; Lansdorp-Vogelaar, Iris

2015-07-01

The National Colorectal Cancer Roundtable, a national coalition of public, private, and voluntary organizations, has recently announced an initiative to increase colorectal cancer (CRC) screening rates in the United States to 80% by 2018. The authors evaluated the potential public health benefits of achieving this goal. The authors simulated the 1980 through 2030 United States population of individuals aged 50 to 100 years using microsimulation modeling. Test-specific historical screening rates were based on National Health Interview Survey data for 1987 through 2013. The effects of increasing screening rates from approximately 58% in 2013 to 80% in 2018 were compared to a scenario in which the screening rate remained approximately constant. The outcomes were cancer incidence and mortality rates and numbers of CRC cases and deaths during short-term follow-up (2013-2020) and extended follow-up (2013-2030). Increasing CRC screening rates to 80% by 2018 would reduce CRC incidence rates by 17% and mortality rates by 19% during short-term follow-up and by 22% and 33%, respectively, during extended follow-up. These reductions would amount to a total of 277,000 averted new cancers and 203,000 averted CRC deaths from 2013 through 2030. Achieving the goal of increasing the uptake of CRC screening in the United States to 80% by 2018 may have a considerable public health impact by averting approximately 280,000 new cancer cases and 200,000 cancer deaths within <20 years. Cancer 2015;121:2281-2285. © 2015 The Authors. Cancer published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of American Cancer Society. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs License, which permits use and distribution in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, the use is non-commercial and no modifications or adaptations are made. © 2015 The Authors. Cancer published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of American Cancer Society.

Dose Titration of Pregabalin in Patients with Painful Diabetic Peripheral Neuropathy: Simulation Based on Observational Study Patients Enriched with Data from Randomized Studies.

PubMed

Alexander, Joe; Edwards, Roger A; Manca, Luigi; Grugni, Roberto; Bonfanti, Gianluca; Emir, Birol; Whalen, Edward; Watt, Stephen; Parsons, Bruce

2018-03-01

Achieving a therapeutic response to pregabalin in patients with painful diabetic peripheral neuropathy (pDPN) requires adequate upward dose titration. Our goal was to identify relationships between titration and response to pregabalin in patients with pDPN. Data were integrated from nine randomized, placebo-controlled clinical trials as well as one 6-week open-label observational study conducted by 5808 physicians (2642 patients with pDPN) in standard outpatient settings in Germany. These studies evaluated pregabalin for treatment of pDPN. Using these data, we examined "what if" scenarios using a microsimulation platform that integrates data from randomized and observational sources as well as autoregressive-moving-average with exogenous inputs models that predict pain outcomes, taking into account weekly changes in pain, sleep interference, dose, and other patient characteristics that were unchanging. Final pain levels were significantly different depending on dose changes (P < 0.0001), with greater proportions improving with upward titration regardless of baseline pain severity. Altogether, 78.5% of patients with pDPN had 0-1 dose change, and 15.2% had ≥ 2 dose changes. Simulation demonstrated that the 4.8% of inadequately titrated patients who did not improve/very much improve their pain levels would have benefited from ≥ 2 dose changes. Patient satisfaction with tolerability (range 90.3-96.2%) was similar, regardless of baseline pain severity, number of titrations, or extent of improvement, suggesting that tolerability did not influence treatment response patterns. Upward dose titration reduced pain in patients with pDPN who actually received it. Simulation also predicted pain reduction in an inadequately titrated nonresponder subgroup of patients had they actually received adequate titration. The decision not to uptitrate must have been driven by factors other than tolerability. Pfizer, Inc.

Long-term disease and economic outcomes of prior authorization criteria for Hepatitis C treatment in Pennsylvania Medicaid.

PubMed

Kabiri, Mina; Chhatwal, Jagpreet; Donohue, Julie M; Roberts, Mark S; James, A Everette; Dunn, Michael A; Gellad, Walid F

2017-09-01

Several highly effective but costly therapies for hepatitis C virus (HCV) are available. As a consequence of their high price, 36 state Medicaid programs limited treatment coverage to patients with more advanced HCV stages. States have only limited information available to predict the long-term impact of these decisions. We adapted a validated hepatitis C microsimulation model to the Pennsylvania Medicaid population to estimate the existing HCV prevalence in Pennsylvania Medicaid and estimate the impact of various HCV drug coverage policies on disease outcomes and costs. Outcome measures included rates of advanced-stage HCV outcomes and treatment and disease costs in both Medicaid and Medicare. We estimated that 46,700 individuals in Pennsylvania Medicaid were infected with HCV in 2015, 33% of whom were still undiagnosed. By expanding treatment to include mild fibrosis stage (Metavir F2), Pennsylvania Medicaid will spend an additional $273 million on medications in the next decade with no substantial reduction in the incidence of liver cancer or liver-related death. Medicaid patients who are not eligible for treatment under restricted policies would get treatment once they transition to the Medicare program, which would incur 10% reduction in HCV-related costs due to early treatment in Medicaid. Further expanding treatment to patients with early fibrosis stages (F0 or F1) would cost Medicaid an additional $693 million during the next decade but would reduce the number of individuals in need of treatment in Medicare by 46% and decrease Medicare treatment costs by 23%. In some scenarios, outcomes could worsen with eligibility expansion if there is inadequate capacity to treat all patients. Expansion of HCV treatment coverage to less severe stages of liver disease may not substantially improve liver related outcomes for patients in Pennsylvania Medicaid in scenarios in which coverage through Medicare is widely available. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Detecting and treating occlusal caries lesions: a cost-effectiveness analysis.

PubMed

Schwendicke, F; Stolpe, M; Meyer-Lueckel, H; Paris, S

2015-02-01

The health gains and costs resulting from using different caries detection strategies might not only depend on the accuracy of the used method but also the treatment emanating from its use in different populations. We compared combinations of visual-tactile, radiographic, or laser-fluorescence-based detection methods with 1 of 3 treatments (non-, micro-, and invasive treatment) initiated at different cutoffs (treating all or only dentinal lesions) in populations with low or high caries prevalence. A Markov model was constructed to follow an occlusal surface in a permanent molar in an initially 12-y-old male German patient over his lifetime. Prevalence data and transition probabilities were extracted from the literature, while validity parameters of different methods were synthesized or obtained from systematic reviews. Microsimulations were performed to analyze the model, assuming a German health care setting and a mixed public-private payer perspective. Radiographic and fluorescence-based methods led to more overtreatments, especially in populations with low prevalence. For the latter, combining visual-tactile or radiographic detection with microinvasive treatment retained teeth longest (mean 66 y) at lowest costs (329 and 332 Euro, respectively), while combining radiographic or fluorescence-based detections with invasive treatment was the least cost-effective (<60 y, >700 Euro). In populations with high prevalence, combining radiographic detection with microinvasive treatment was most cost-effective (63 y, 528 Euro), while sensitive detection methods combined with invasive treatments were again the least cost-effective (<59 y, >690 Euro). The suitability of detection methods differed significantly between populations, and the cost-effectiveness was greatly influenced by the treatment initiated after lesion detection. The accuracy of a detection method relative to a "gold standard" did not automatically convey into better health or reduced costs. Detection methods should be evaluated not only against their criterion validity but also the long-term effects resulting from their use in different populations. © International & American Associations for Dental Research 2014.

Determinants of the spatiotemporal dynamics of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in Europe: implications for real-time modelling.

PubMed

Merler, Stefano; Ajelli, Marco; Pugliese, Andrea; Ferguson, Neil M

2011-09-01

Influenza pandemics in the last century were characterized by successive waves and differences in impact and timing between different regions, for reasons not clearly understood. The 2009 H1N1 pandemic showed rapid global spread, but with substantial heterogeneity in timing within each hemisphere. Even within Europe substantial variation was observed, with the UK being unique in experiencing a major first wave of transmission in early summer and all other countries having a single major epidemic in the autumn/winter, with a West to East pattern of spread. Here we show that a microsimulation model, parameterised using data about H1N1pdm collected by the beginning of June 2009, explains the occurrence of two waves in UK and a single wave in the rest of Europe as a consequence of timing of H1N1pdm spread, fluxes of travels from US and Mexico, and timing of school vacations. The model provides a description of pandemic spread through Europe, depending on intra-European mobility patterns and socio-demographic structure of the European populations, which is in broad agreement with observed timing of the pandemic in different countries. Attack rates are predicted to depend on the socio-demographic structure, with age dependent attack rates broadly agreeing with available serological data. Results suggest that the observed heterogeneity can be partly explained by the between country differences in Europe: marked differences in school calendars, mobility patterns and sociodemographic structures. Moreover, higher susceptibility of children to infection played a key role in determining the epidemiology of the 2009 pandemic. Our work shows that it would have been possible to obtain a broad-brush prediction of timing of the European pandemic well before the autumn of 2009, much more difficult to achieve with simpler models or pre-pandemic parameterisation. This supports the use of models accounting for the structure of complex modern societies for giving insight to policy makers.

Cost-effectiveness of training rural providers to identify and treat patients at risk for fragility fractures.

PubMed

Nelson, S D; Nelson, R E; Cannon, G W; Lawrence, P; Battistone, M J; Grotzke, M; Rosenblum, Y; LaFleur, J

2014-12-01

This is a cost-effectiveness analysis of training rural providers to identify and treat osteoporosis. Results showed a slight cost savings, increase in life years, increase in treatment rates, and decrease in fracture incidence. However, the results were sensitive to small differences in effectiveness, being cost-effective in 70 % of simulations during probabilistic sensitivity analysis. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of training rural providers to identify and treat veterans at risk for fragility fractures relative to referring these patients to an urban medical center for specialist care. The model evaluated the impact of training on patient life years, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), treatment rates, fracture incidence, and costs from the perspective of the Department of Veterans Affairs. We constructed a Markov microsimulation model to compare costs and outcomes of a hypothetical cohort of veterans seen by rural providers. Parameter estimates were derived from previously published studies, and we conducted one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses on the parameter inputs. Base-case analysis showed that training resulted in no additional costs and an extra 0.083 life years (0.054 QALYs). Our model projected that as a result of training, more patients with osteoporosis would receive treatment (81.3 vs. 12.2 %), and all patients would have a lower incidence of fractures per 1,000 patient years (hip, 1.628 vs. 1.913; clinical vertebral, 0.566 vs. 1.037) when seen by a trained provider compared to an untrained provider. Results remained consistent in one-way sensitivity analysis and in probabilistic sensitivity analyses, training rural providers was cost-effective (less than $50,000/QALY) in 70 % of the simulations. Training rural providers to identify and treat veterans at risk for fragility fractures has a potential to be cost-effective, but the results are sensitive to small differences in effectiveness. It appears that provider education alone is not enough to make a significant difference in fragility fracture rates among veterans.

Active life expectancy of Americans with diabetes: risks of heart disease, obesity, and inactivity.

PubMed

Laditka, Sarah B; Laditka, James N

2015-01-01

Few researchers have studied whether diabetes itself is responsible for high rates of disability or mortality, or if factors associated with diabetes contribute importantly. We estimated associations of diabetes, heart disease, obesity, and physical inactivity with life expectancy (LE), the proportion of life with disability (DLE), and disability in the last year of life. Data were from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (1999-2011 and 1986, African American and white women and men ages 55+, n=1,980, 17,352 person-years). Activities of daily living defined disability. Multinomial logistic Markov models estimated disability transition probabilities adjusted for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, and the health factors. Microsimulation measured outcomes. White women and men exemplify results. LE was, for women: 3.5 years less with diabetes than without (95% confidence interval, 3.1-4.0), 11.1 less (10.3-12.0) adding heart disease, 21.9 less with all factors (15.3-28.5), all p<0.001. Corresponding results for men: 1.7 years (0.9-2.3, not significant), 8.2 (6.8-9.5) and 18.1 (15.6-20.6), both p<0.001. DLE was, for women: 23.5% (21.7-25.4) with no risk factors, 27.1% (25.7-28.6) with diabetes alone, 34.6% (33.1-36.1) adding heart disease, 52.9% (38.9-66.8) with all factors, all p<0.001; for men: 13.2% (11.7-14.6), 16.3% (14.8-17.8, p<0.01); and 22.1% (20.5-23.7), 36.4% (25.0-47.8), both p<.001. Among people with diabetes, those with other conditions were much less likely to have no disability in the final year of life. Much of the disability and mortality with diabetes was due to heart disease, obesity, and inactivity, risks that can be modified by health behaviors and medical care. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

The future burden of obesity-related diseases in the 53 WHO European-Region countries and the impact of effective interventions: a modelling study

PubMed Central

Webber, Laura; Divajeva, Diana; Marsh, Tim; McPherson, Klim; Brown, Martin; Galea, Gauden; Breda, Joao

2014-01-01

Objective Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are the biggest cause of death in Europe putting an unsustainable burden on already struggling health systems. Increases in obesity are a major cause of NCDs. This paper projects the future burden of coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, type 2 diabetes and seven cancers by 2030 in 53 WHO European Region countries based on current and past body mass index (BMI) trends. It also tests the impact of obesity interventions on the future disease burden. Setting and participants Secondary data analysis of country-specific epidemiological data using a microsimulation modelling process. Interventions The effect of three hypothetical scenarios on the future burden of disease in 2030 was tested: baseline scenario, BMI trends go unchecked; intervention 1, population BMI decreases by 1%; intervention 2, BMI decreases by 5%. Primary and secondary outcome measures Quantifying the future burden of major NCDs and the impact of interventions on this future disease burden. Results By 2030 in the whole of the European region, the prevalence of diabetes, CHD and stroke and cancers was projected to reach an average of 3990, 4672 and 2046 cases/100 000, respectively. The highest prevalence of diabetes was predicted in Slovakia (10 870), CHD and stroke—in Greece (11 292) and cancers—in Finland (5615 cases/100 000). A 5% fall in population BMI was projected to significantly reduce cumulative incidence of diseases. The largest reduction in diabetes and CHD and stroke was observed in Slovakia (3054 and 3369 cases/100 000, respectively), and in cancers was predicted in Germany (331/100 000). Conclusions Modelling future disease trends is a useful tool for policymakers so that they can allocate resources effectively and implement policies to prevent NCDs. Future research will allow real policy interventions to be tested; however, better surveillance data on NCDs and their risk factors are essential for research and policy. PMID:25063459

Potential epidemiologic, economic, and budgetary impacts of current rates of hepatitis C treatment in medicare and non-medicare populations.

PubMed

Wittenborn, John; Brady, Joanne; Dougherty, Michelle; Rein, David

2017-04-01

We forecast the health and budgetary impact of hepatitis C (HCV) treatment on the Medicare program based on currently observed rates of treatment among Medicare and non-Medicare patients and identify the impact of higher rates of treatment among non-Medicare populations. We developed a computer microsimulation model to conduct an epidemiologic forecast, a budgetary impact analysis, and a cost-effectiveness analysis of the treatment of HCV based on three scenarios: 1) no treatment, 2) continuation of current-treatment rates, and 3) treatment rates among non-Medicare patients increased to match that of Medicare patients. The simulated population is based on National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey data. HCV progression rates and costs were calculated in Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program Medicare 5% claims data from the Chronic Hepatitis Cohort Study and published literature. We estimate that 13.6% of patients with HCV in the United States are enrolled in Medicare, but 75% will enter Medicare in the next 20 years. Medicare patients were over 5 times as likely to be treated in 2014-2015 as other patients. Medicare paid over $9 billion in treatment costs in both 2015 and 2016 and will total $28.4 billion from 2017-2026. Increasing treatment rates among non-Medicare patients would lead to 234,000 more patients being treated, reduce HCV mortality by 19%, and decrease Medicare costs by $18.6 billion from 2017-2026. We find that treatment remains cost-effective under most assumptions, costing $31,718 per quality adjusted life year gained. Conclusion : Medicare treats a disproportionately large share of HCV patients. Continued low rates of treatment among non-Medicare HCV patients will result in both reduced and deferred treatment, shifting future treatment costs to Medicare while increasing overall medical management costs, morbidity, and mortality. ( Hepatology Communications 2017;1:99-109).

The management of patients with T1 adenocarcinoma of the low rectum: a decision analysis.

PubMed

Johnston, Calvin F; Tomlinson, George; Temple, Larissa K; Baxter, Nancy N

2013-04-01

Decision making for patients with T1 adenocarcinoma of the low rectum, when treatment options are limited to a transanal local excision or abdominoperineal resection, is challenging. The aim of this study was to develop a contemporary decision analysis to assist patients and clinicians in balancing the goals of maximizing life expectancy and quality of life in this situation. We constructed a Markov-type microsimulation in open-source software. Recurrence rates and quality-of-life parameters were elicited by systematic literature reviews. Sensitivity analyses were performed on key model parameters. Our base case for analysis was a 65-year-old man with low-lying T1N0 rectal cancer. We determined the sensitivity of our model for sex, age up to 80, and T stage. The main outcome measured was quality-adjusted life-years. In the base case, selecting transanal local excision over abdominoperineal resection resulted in a loss of 0.53 years of life expectancy but a gain of 0.97 quality-adjusted life-years. One-way sensitivity analysis demonstrated a health state utility value threshold for permanent colostomy of 0.93. This value ranged from 0.88 to 1.0 based on tumor recurrence risk. There were no other model sensitivities. Some model parameter estimates were based on weak data. In our model, transanal local excision was found to be the preferable approach for most patients. An abdominoperineal resection has a 3.5% longer life expectancy, but this advantage is lost when the quality-of-life reduction reported by stoma patients is weighed in. The minority group in whom abdominoperineal resection is preferred are those who are unwilling to sacrifice 7% of their life expectancy to avoid a permanent stoma. This is estimated to be approximately 25% of all patients. The threshold increases to 12% of life expectancy in high-risk tumors. No other factors are found to be relevant to the decision.

The Impact of Diabetes on the Labour Force Participation and Income Poverty of Workers Aged 45–64 Years in Australia

PubMed Central

Schofield, Deborah J.; Cunich, Michelle; Shrestha, Rupendra N.; Callander, Emily J.; Passey, Megan E.; Kelly, Simon J.; Tanton, Robert; Veerman, Lennert

2014-01-01

Objective To quantify the poverty status and level of disadvantage experienced by Australians aged 45–64 years who have left the labour force due to diabetes in 2010. Research Design and Methods A purpose-built microsimulation model, Health&WealthMOD2030, was used to estimate the poverty status and level of disadvantage of those aged 45–64 years who prematurely retire from the workforce due to diabetes. A multiple regression model was used to identify significant differences in rates of income poverty and the degree of disadvantage between those out of the labour force due to diabetes and those employed full- or part-time with no diabetes. Results 63.9% of people aged 45–64 years who were out of the labour force due to diabetes were in poverty in 2010. The odds of being in poverty for those with no diabetes and employed full-time (OR of being in poverty 0.02 95%CI: 0.01–0.04) or part-time (OR of being in poverty 0.10 95%CI: 0.05–0.23) are significantly lower than those for persons not in the labour force due to diabetes. Amongst those with diabetes, those who were able to stay in either full- or part-time employment were as much as 97% less likely to be in poverty than those who had to retire early because of the condition. Sensitivity analysis was used to assess impacts of different poverty line thresholds and key socioeconomic predictors of poverty. Conclusions This study has shown that having diabetes and not being in the labour force because of this condition significantly increases the chances of living in poverty. Intervening to prevent or delay the onset of diabetes is likely to improve their living standards. PMID:24586716

Cost-Effectiveness of the Third-Agent Class in Treatment-Naive Human Immunodeficiency Virus-Infected Patients in Portugal

PubMed Central

Aragão, Filipa; Vera, José; Vaz Pinto, Inês

2012-01-01

Introduction Current Portuguese HIV treatment guidelines recommend initiating antiretroviral therapy with a regimen composed of two Nucleoside Reverse Transcriptase Inhibitors plus one Non-nucleoside Reverse Transcriptase Inhibitor (2NRTI+NNRTI) or two Nucleoside Reverse Transcriptase Inhibitors plus one boosted protease inhibitor (2NRTI+PI/r). Given the lower daily cost of NNRTI as the third agent when compared to the average daily costs of PI/r, it is relevant to estimate the long term impact of each treatment option in the Portuguese context. Methods We developed a microsimulation discrete events model for cost-effectiveness analysis of HIV treatment, simulating individual paths from ART initiation to death. Four driving forces determine the course of events: CD4+ cell count, viral load, resistance and adherence. Distributions of time to event are conditional to individuals’ characteristics and past history. Time to event was modeled using parametric survival analysis using Stata 11®. Disease progression was structured according to therapy lines and the model was parameterized with cohort Portuguese observational data. All resources were valued at 2009 prices. The National Health Service’s perspective was assumed considering a lifetime horizon and a 5% annual discount rate. Results In this analysis, initiating therapy with two Nucleoside Reverse Transcriptase Inhibitors plus one Non-nucleoside Reverse Transcriptase Inhibitor reduces the average number of switches by 17%, saves 19.573€ per individual and increases life expectancy by 1.7 months showing to be a dominant strategy in 57% of the simulations when compared to two Nucleoside Reverse Transcriptase Inhibitors plus one boosted protease inhibitor. Conclusion This study suggests that, when clinically valid, initiating therapy with two Nucleoside Reverse Transcriptase Inhibitors plus one Non-nucleoside Reverse Transcriptase Inhibitor is a cost-saving strategy and equally effective when compared to two Nucleoside Reverse Transcriptase Inhibitors plus one boosted protease inhibitor as the first regimen. PMID:23028618

The distribution of ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) grade in 4232 women and its impact on overdiagnosis in breast cancer screening.

PubMed

van Luijt, P A; Heijnsdijk, E A M; Fracheboud, J; Overbeek, L I H; Broeders, M J M; Wesseling, J; den Heeten, G J; de Koning, H J

2016-05-10

The incidence of ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) has rapidly increased over time. The malignant potential of DCIS is dependent on its differentiation grade. Our aim is to determine the distribution of different grades of DCIS among women screened in the mass screening programme, and women not screened in the mass screening programme, and to estimate the amount of overdiagnosis by grade of DCIS. We retrospectively included a population-based sample of 4232 women with a diagnosis of DCIS in the years 2007-2009 from the Nationwide network and registry of histopathology and cytopathology in the Netherlands. Excluded were women with concurrent invasive breast cancer, lobular carcinoma in situ and no DCIS, women recently treated for invasive breast cancer, no grade mentioned in the record, inconclusive record on invasion, and prevalent DCIS. The screening status was obtained via the screening organisations. The distribution of grades was incorporated in the well-established and validated microsimulation model MISCAN. Overall, 17.7 % of DCIS were low grade, 31.4 % intermediate grade, and 50.9 % high grade. This distribution did not differ by screening status, but did vary by age. Older women were more likely to have low-grade DCIS than younger women. Overdiagnosis as a proportion of all cancers in women of the screening age was 61 % for low-grade, 57 % for intermediate-grade, 45 % for high-grade DCIS. For women age 50-60 years with a high-grade DCIS this overdiagnosis rate was 21-29 %, compared to 50-66 % in women age 60-75 years with high-grade DCIS. Amongst the rapidly increasing numbers of DCIS diagnosed each year is a significant number of overdiagnosed cases. Tailoring treatment to the probability of progression is the next step to preventing overtreatment. The basis of this tailoring could be DCIS grade and age.

Forecasting the impact of stereotactic ablative radiotherapy for early-stage lung cancer on the thoracic surgery workforce.

PubMed

Edwards, Janet P; Datta, Indraneel; Hunt, John Douglas; Stefan, Kevin; Ball, Chad G; Dixon, Elijah; Grondin, Sean C

2016-06-01

To predict variation in thoracic surgery workforce requirements with the introduction of stereotactic ablative radiotherapy (SABR) for the treatment of early-stage non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Using Canadian census microdata and the Canadian Community Health Survey, a microsimulation model representing the national population was developed. The demand component simulates the incidence of lung cancer, incorporating the impact of computed tomography (CT) screening for high-risk individuals (>30 pack-year smoking history; age 55-74 years). The supply component simulates the number of thoracic surgeons. SABR was introduced into the model to predict changes in the number of operable NSCLC cases per thoracic surgeon, modelling 30, 60 and 90% compliance with SABR for Stage IA and then for both Stage IA and IB NSCLC. In the absence of SABR, the volume of operative NSCLC per surgeon increases by a peak of 49.4% (by 2027) and then gradually declines to the present day volume by 2049. More dramatic decreases are seen with increasing compliance with SABR for Stage IA/IB NSCLCs. If the number of new surgeons entering the workforce per year were reduced by 33%, the operative volume per surgeon would increase by a peak of 57.1% (30% Stage IA SABR compliance) and would decrease by up to 49.1% (90% Stage IA SABR compliance). With the implementation of SABR for treatment of early NSCLC, there would be a decrease in operative volume. The impact would depend on the stage of NSCLC for which SABR is recommended and on compliance. A national strategy for thoracic surgery workforce planning is necessary, given the complex interaction of CT screening and the treatment of medically operable early NSCLC with SABR. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery. All rights reserved.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of pharmacokinetic-driven prophylaxis vs. standard prophylaxis in patients with severe haemophilia A.

PubMed

Iannazzo, Sergio; Cortesi, Paolo A; Crea, Roberto; Steinitz, Katharina; Mantovani, Lorenzo G; Gringeri, Alessandro

2017-09-01

: The objective of this study was to assess the cost-effectiveness of pharmacokinetic-driven prophylaxis in severe haemophilia A patients. A microsimulation model was developed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of pharmacokinetic-driven prophylaxis vs. standard prophylaxis and estimate cost, annual joint bleed rate (AJBR), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio over a 1-year time horizon for a hypothetical population of 10 000 severe haemophilia A patients. A dose of 30 IU/kg per 48 h was assumed for standard prophylaxis. Pharmacokinetic prophylaxis was individually adjusted to maintain trough levels at least 1 and 5 IU/dl or less. AJBR was estimated on the relationship between factor VIII (FVIII) levels and bleeding rate reported in the literature. Sensitivity analyses were performed to assess the stability of the model and the reliability of results. The FVIII dose was reduced in the 27.8% of patients with a trough level more than 5 IU/dl on standard prophylaxis, with a negligible impact on AJBR (+0.1 bleed/year). The FVIII dose was increased in the 10.6% of patients with trough levels less than 1 IU/dl on standard prophylaxis, with a significant reduction of AJBR (-1.9 bleeds/year). On average, overall, pharmacokinetic-driven prophylaxis was shown to decrease the AJBR from 1.012 to 0.845 with a slight reduction of the infusion dose of 0.36 IU/kg, with total saving of 5 197&OV0556; per patient-year. Pharmacokinetic-driven prophylaxis was preferable (i.e. more effective and less costly) compared with standard prophylaxis, with savings of 31 205&OV0556; per bleed avoided. Pharmacokinetic-driven prophylaxis, accounting for patients' individual pharmacokinetic variability, appears to be a promising strategy to improve outcomes with efficient use of available resources in severe haemophilia A patients.

Work disability in the United States, 1968-2015: Prevalence, duration, recovery, and trends.

PubMed

Laditka, James N; Laditka, Sarah B

2018-04-01

The United States workforce is aging. At the same time more people have chronic conditions, for longer periods. Given these trends the importance of work disability, physical or nervous problems that limit a person's type or amount of work, is increasing. No research has examined transitions among multiple levels of work disability, recovery from work disability, or trends. Limited research has focused on work disability among African Americans and Hispanics, or separately for women and men. We examined these areas using data from 30,563 adults in the 1968-2015 Panel Study of Income Dynamics. We estimated annual probabilities of work disability, recovery, and death with multinomial logistic Markov models. Microsimulations accounting for age and education estimated outcomes for African American, Hispanic, and non-Hispanic white women and men. Results from these nationally representative data suggested that the majority of Americans experience work disability during working life. Most spells ended with recovery or reduced severity. Among women, African Americans and Hispanics had less moderate and severe work disability than whites. Among men, African Americans became severely work disabled more often than whites, recovered from severe spells more often and had shorter severe spells, yet had more severe work disability at age 65. Hispanic men were more likely to report at least one spell of severe work disability than whites; they also had substantially more recovery from severe work disability, and a lower percentage of working years with work disability. Among African Americans and Hispanics, men were considerably more likely than women to have severe work disability at age 65. Work disability declined significantly across the study period for all groups. Although work disability has declined over several decades, it remains common. Results suggest that the majority of work disability spells end with recovery, underscoring the importance of rehabilitation and workplace accommodation.

Cost-Effectiveness of Intensive versus Standard Blood-Pressure Control.

PubMed

Bress, Adam P; Bellows, Brandon K; King, Jordan B; Hess, Rachel; Beddhu, Srinivasan; Zhang, Zugui; Berlowitz, Dan R; Conroy, Molly B; Fine, Larry; Oparil, Suzanne; Morisky, Donald E; Kazis, Lewis E; Ruiz-Negrón, Natalia; Powell, Jamie; Tamariz, Leonardo; Whittle, Jeff; Wright, Jackson T; Supiano, Mark A; Cheung, Alfred K; Weintraub, William S; Moran, Andrew E

2017-08-24

In the Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial (SPRINT), adults at high risk for cardiovascular disease who received intensive systolic blood-pressure control (target, <120 mm Hg) had significantly lower rates of death and cardiovascular disease events than did those who received standard control (target, <140 mm Hg). On the basis of these data, we wanted to determine the lifetime health benefits and health care costs associated with intensive control versus standard control. We used a microsimulation model to apply SPRINT treatment effects and health care costs from national sources to a hypothetical cohort of SPRINT-eligible adults. The model projected lifetime costs of treatment and monitoring in patients with hypertension, cardiovascular disease events and subsequent treatment costs, treatment-related risks of serious adverse events and subsequent costs, and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) for intensive control versus standard control of systolic blood pressure. We determined that the mean number of QALYs would be 0.27 higher among patients who received intensive control than among those who received standard control and would cost approximately $47,000 more per QALY gained if there were a reduction in adherence and treatment effects after 5 years; the cost would be approximately $28,000 more per QALY gained if the treatment effects persisted for the remaining lifetime of the patient. Most simulation results indicated that intensive treatment would be cost-effective (51 to 79% below the willingness-to-pay threshold of $50,000 per QALY and 76 to 93% below the threshold of $100,000 per QALY), regardless of whether treatment effects were reduced after 5 years or persisted for the remaining lifetime. In this simulation study, intensive systolic blood-pressure control prevented cardiovascular disease events and prolonged life and did so at levels below common willingness-to-pay thresholds per QALY, regardless of whether benefits were reduced after 5 years or persisted for the patient's remaining lifetime. (Funded by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute and others; SPRINT ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01206062 .).

Medicare Chronic Care Management Payments and Financial Returns to Primary Care Practices: A Modeling Study.

PubMed

Basu, Sanjay; Phillips, Russell S; Bitton, Asaf; Song, Zirui; Landon, Bruce E

2015-10-20

Physicians have traditionally been reimbursed for face-to-face visits. A new non-visit-based payment for chronic care management (CCM) of Medicare patients took effect in January 2015. To estimate financial implications of CCM payment for primary care practices. Microsimulation model incorporating national data on primary care use, staffing, expenditures, and reimbursements. National Ambulatory Medical Care Survey and other published sources. Medicare patients. 10 years. Practice-level. Comparison of CCM delivery approaches by staff and physicians. Net revenue per full-time equivalent (FTE) physician; time spent delivering CCM services. If nonphysician staff were to deliver CCM services, net revenue to practices would increase despite opportunity and staffing costs. Practices could expect approximately $332 per enrolled patient per year (95% CI, $234 to $429) if CCM services were delivered by registered nurses (RNs), approximately $372 (CI, $276 to $468) if services were delivered by licensed practical nurses, and approximately $385 (CI, $286 to $485) if services were delivered by medical assistants. For a typical practice, this equates to more than $75 ,00 of net annual revenue per FTE physician and 12 hours of nursing service time per week if 50% of eligible patients enroll. At a minimum, 131 Medicare patients (CI, 115 to 140 patients) must enroll for practices to recoup the salary and overhead costs of hiring a full-time RN to provide CCM services. If physicians were to deliver all CCM services, approximately 25% of practices nationwide could expect net revenue losses due to opportunity costs of face-to-face visit time. The CCM program may alter long-term primary care use, which is difficult to predict. Practices that rely on nonphysician team members to deliver CCM services will probably experience substantial net revenue gains but must enroll a sufficient number of eligible patients to recoup costs. None.

A health economic lifetime treatment pathway model for low back pain in Sweden.

PubMed

Olafsson, Gylfi; Jonsson, Emma; Fritzell, Peter; Hägg, Olle; Borgström, Fredrik

2017-12-01

To develop a health economic model to evaluate the long-term costs and outcomes over the healthcare treatment pathway for patients with low back pain (LBP). A health economic model, consisting of a decision tree structure with a Markov microsimulation model at the end of each branch, was created. Patients were followed from first observed clinical presentation with LBP until the age of 100 years or death. The underlying data to populate the model were based on Swedish national and regional registry data on healthcare resource use and sickness insurance in patients presenting with LBP in the Swedish region Västra Götaland during 2008-2012. Costs (outpatient healthcare visits, inpatient bed days, pharmaceuticals, productivity loss), EUR 2016, and quality-of-life based on EQ-5D data from the registries and published estimates were summarized over the lifetime of the patients with 3% annual discount. A lost quality-adjusted life year (QALY) was valued at €70,000. Mean lifetime total cost was estimated at €47,452/patient, of which indirect costs were 57%. Total lifetime economic burden for all patients coming to clinical presentation in Sweden per year was €8.8bn. The average LBP patient was estimated to face a loss of 2.7 QALYs over their lifetime compared with the general population. For all patients in Sweden coming to clinical presentation in 1 year this gives 505,407 QALYs lost, valued at €35.3bn. Adding the economic burden, the total societal burden amounts to €44.1bn. This pathway model shows that most patients with LBP receive conservative care, and a minority consume high-cost healthcare interventions like surgery. The model could be used to see broad economic effects of different patterns of healthcare provision in sub-groups with LBP and to estimate where it is possible to influence these pathways to increase utility for patients and for society.

Estimating lifetime healthcare costs with morbidity data.

PubMed

Carreras, Marc; Ibern, Pere; Coderch, Jordi; Sánchez, Inma; Inoriza, Jose M

2013-10-25

In many developed countries, the economic crisis started in 2008 producing a serious contraction of the financial resources spent on healthcare. Identifying which individuals will require more resources and the moment in their lives these resources have to be allocated becomes essential. It is well known that a small number of individuals with complex healthcare needs consume a high percentage of health expenditures. Conversely, little is known on how morbidity evolves throughout life. The aim of this study is to introduce a longitudinal perspective to chronic disease management. Data used relate to the population of the county of Baix Empordà in Catalonia for the period 2004-2007 (average population was N = 88,858). The database included individual information on morbidity, resource consumption, costs and activity records. The population was classified using the Clinical Risk Groups (CRG) model. Future morbidity evolution was simulated under different assumptions using a stationary Markov chain. We obtained morbidity patterns for the lifetime and the distribution function of the random variable lifetime costs. Individual information on acute episodes, chronic conditions and multimorbidity patterns were included in the model. The probability of having a specific health status in the future (healthy, acute process or different combinations of chronic illness) and the distribution function of healthcare costs for the individual lifetime were obtained for the sample population. The mean lifetime cost for women was €111,936, a third higher than for men, at €81,566 (all amounts calculated in 2007 Euros). Healthy life expectancy at birth for females was 46.99, lower than for males (50.22). Females also spent 28.41 years of life suffering from some type of chronic disease, a longer period than men (21.9). Future morbidity and whole population costs can be reasonably predicted, combining stochastic microsimulation with a morbidity classification system. Potential ways of efficiency arose by introducing a time perspective to chronic disease management.

Estimating lifetime healthcare costs with morbidity data

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background In many developed countries, the economic crisis started in 2008 producing a serious contraction of the financial resources spent on healthcare. Identifying which individuals will require more resources and the moment in their lives these resources have to be allocated becomes essential. It is well known that a small number of individuals with complex healthcare needs consume a high percentage of health expenditures. Conversely, little is known on how morbidity evolves throughout life. The aim of this study is to introduce a longitudinal perspective to chronic disease management. Methods Data used relate to the population of the county of Baix Empordà in Catalonia for the period 2004–2007 (average population was N = 88,858). The database included individual information on morbidity, resource consumption, costs and activity records. The population was classified using the Clinical Risk Groups (CRG) model. Future morbidity evolution was simulated under different assumptions using a stationary Markov chain. We obtained morbidity patterns for the lifetime and the distribution function of the random variable lifetime costs. Individual information on acute episodes, chronic conditions and multimorbidity patterns were included in the model. Results The probability of having a specific health status in the future (healthy, acute process or different combinations of chronic illness) and the distribution function of healthcare costs for the individual lifetime were obtained for the sample population. The mean lifetime cost for women was €111,936, a third higher than for men, at €81,566 (all amounts calculated in 2007 Euros). Healthy life expectancy at birth for females was 46.99, lower than for males (50.22). Females also spent 28.41 years of life suffering from some type of chronic disease, a longer period than men (21.9). Conclusions Future morbidity and whole population costs can be reasonably predicted, combining stochastic microsimulation with a morbidity classification system. Potential ways of efficiency arose by introducing a time perspective to chronic disease management. PMID:24156613

Health Benefits and Cost-Effectiveness of Asymptomatic Screening for Hypertension and High Cholesterol and Aspirin Counseling for Primary Prevention.

PubMed

Dehmer, Steven P; Maciosek, Michael V; LaFrance, Amy B; Flottemesch, Thomas J

2017-01-01

Our aim was to update estimates of the health and economic impact of clinical services recommended for the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) for the comparative rankings of the National Commission on Prevention Priorities, and to explore differences in outcomes by sex and race/ethnicity. We used a single, integrated, microsimulation model to generate comparable results for 3 services recommended by the US Preventive Services Task Force: aspirin counseling for the primary prevention of CVD and colorectal cancer, screening and treatment for lipid disorders (usually high cholesterol), and screening and treatment for hypertension. Analyses compare lifetime outcomes from the societal perspective for a US-representative birth cohort of 100,000 persons with and without access to each clinical preventive service. Primary outcomes are health impact, measured by the net difference in lifetime quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and cost-effectiveness, measured in incremental cost per QALY or cost savings per person in 2012 dollars. Results are also presented for population subgroups defined by sex and race/ethnicity. Health impact is highest for hypertension screening and treatment (15,600 QALYs), but is closely followed by cholesterol screening and treatment (14,300 QALYs). Aspirin counseling has a lower health impact (2,200 QALYs) but is found to be cost saving ($31 saved per person). Cost-effectiveness for cholesterol and hypertension screening and treatment is $33,800 per QALY and $48,500 per QALY, respectively. Findings favor hypertension over cholesterol screening and treatment for women, and opportunities to reduce disease burden across all services are greatest for the non-Hispanic black population. All 3 CVD preventive services continue to rank highly among other recommended preventive services for US adults, but individual priorities can be tailored in practice by taking a patient's demographic characteristics and clinical objectives into account. © 2017 Annals of Family Medicine, Inc.

A Decision Analysis of Percutaneous Left Atrial Appendage Occlusion Relative to Novel and Traditional Oral Anticoagulation for Stroke Prevention in Patients with New-Onset Atrial Fibrillation.

PubMed

Micieli, Andrew; Wijeysundera, Harindra C; Qiu, Feng; Atzema, Clare L; Singh, Sheldon M

2016-04-01

Percutaneous left atrial appendage occlusion (LAAO) is a nonpharmacologic approach for stroke prevention in nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF). No direct comparisons to novel oral anticoagulants (OACs) exists, limiting decision making on the optimal strategy for stroke prevention in NVAF patients. Addressing this gap in knowledge is timely given the recent debate by the US Food and Drug Administration regarding the effectiveness of LAAO. To assess the cost-effectiveness of LAAO and novel OACs relative to warfarin in patients with new-onset NVAF without contraindications to OAC. A cost-utility analysis using a patient-level Markov micro-simulation decision analytic model was undertaken to determine the lifetime costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of LAAO and all novel OACs relative to warfarin. Effectiveness and utility data were obtained from the published literature and cost from the Ontario Drug Benefits Formulary and Case Costing Initiative. Warfarin had the lowest discounted QALY (5.13 QALYs), followed by dabigatran (5.18 QALYs), rivaroxaban and LAAO (5.21 QALYs), and apixaban (5.25 QALYs). The average discounted lifetime costs were $15 776 for warfarin, $18 280 for rivaroxaban, $19 156 for apixaban, $20 794 for dabigatran, and $21 789 for LAAO. Apixaban dominated dabigatran and LAAO and demonstrated extended dominance over rivaroxaban. The ICER for apixaban relative to warfarin was $28 167/QALY. Apixaban was preferred in 40.2% of simulations at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $50 000/QALY. Assumptions regarding clinical and methodological differences between published studies of each therapy were minimized. Apixaban is the most cost-effective therapy for stroke prevention in patients with new-onset NVAF without contraindications to OAC. Uncertainty around this conclusion exists, highlighting the need for further research. © The Author(s) 2015.

Unemployment, disability and life expectancy in the United States: A life course study.

PubMed

Laditka, James N; Laditka, Sarah B

2016-01-01

Unemployment may be associated with health through factors including stress, depression, unhealthy behaviors, reduced health care, and loss of social networks. Little is known about associations of total lifetime unemployment with disability and life expectancy. People with high unemployment (≥the median) will live shorter lives with more disability than those with less unemployment. Data were nationally representative of African Americans and non-Hispanic whites, from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (37 waves 1968-2011, n = 7,970, mean work years = 24.7). Seven waves (1999-2011, 58,268 person-years) measured disability in activities of daily living. We estimated monthly probabilities of disability and death associated with unemployment using multinomial logistic Markov models adjusted for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, health status at baseline and throughout work life, and social support. We used the probabilities to create large populations with microsimulation, each individual having known monthly disability status, age 40 to death. We analyzed the populations to measure outcomes. Respectively for African American and white women and African American and white men, life expectancies (with 95% confidence intervals) from age 40 with low unemployment were ages: 77.1 (75.0-78.3), 80.6 (78.4-81.4), 71.4 (69.6-72.5), and 76.9 (74.9-77.9). Corresponding high unemployment results were: 73.7 (71.7-75.0), 77.5 (75.1-78.0), 68.4 (66.8-69.0), and 73.7 (71.5-74.3). The percentage of life disabled from age 40 was greater with high unemployment for the same groups, by 23.9%, 21.0%, 21.3%, and 21.1% (all p < 0.01). High lifetime unemployment may be associated with a larger proportion of later life with disability and lower life expectancy. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Effects of Taxing Sugar-Sweetened Beverages on Caries and Treatment Costs.

PubMed

Schwendicke, F; Thomson, W M; Broadbent, J M; Stolpe, M

2016-11-01

Caries increment is affected by sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) consumption. Taxing SSBs could reduce sugar consumption and caries increment. The authors aimed to estimate the impact of a 20% SSB sales tax on caries increment and associated treatment costs (as well as the resulting tax revenue) in the context of Germany. A model-based approach was taken, estimating the effects for the German population aged 14 to 79 y over a 10-y period. Taxation was assumed to affect beverage-associated sugar consumption via empirical demand elasticities. Altered consumption affected caries increments and treatment costs, with cost estimates being calculated under the perspective of the statutory health insurance. National representative consumption and price data were used to estimate tax revenue. Microsimulations were performed to estimate health outcomes, costs, and revenue impact in different age, sex, and income groups. Implementing a 20% SSB sales tax reduced sugar consumption in nearly all male groups but in fewer female groups. The reduction was larger among younger than older individuals and among those with low income. Taxation reduced caries increment and treatment costs especially in younger (rather than older) individuals and those with low income. Over 10 y, mean (SD) net caries increments at the population level were 82.27 (1.15) million and 83.02 (1.08) million teeth at 20% and 0% SSB tax, respectively. These generated treatment costs of 2.64 (0.39) billion and 2.72 (0.35) billion euro, respectively. Additional tax revenue was 37.99 (3.41) billion euro over the 10 y. In conclusion and within the limitations of this study's perspective, database, and underlying assumptions, implementing a 20% sales tax on SSBs is likely to reduce caries increment, especially in young low-income males, thereby also reducing inequalities in the distribution of caries experience. Taxation would also reduce treatment costs. However, these reductions might be limited in the total population.

Cost-Effectiveness of Dapagliflozin as Add-On to Metformin for the Treatment of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in Greece.

PubMed

Tzanetakos, Charalampos; Tentolouris, Nicholas; Kourlaba, Georgia; Maniadakis, Nikos

2016-08-01

Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is a chronic progressive disease that has been spread worldwide over the past three decades and associated with increased morbidity and mortality resulting in considerable socioeconomic implications for national healthcare systems. Effective management of disease is highly needed ensuring patients receive the best possible care within the available budget. The objective of this study was to evaluate the long-term cost-effectiveness of dapagliflozin, a sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 (SGLT-2) inhibitor, compared with a sulfonylurea (SU) or a dipeptidyl-peptidase-4 inhibitor (DPP-4i), when added to metformin, in T2DM patients inadequately controlled on metformin alone in Greece. The published and validated Cardiff diabetes model, a lifetime micro-simulation model, was adapted to a Greek healthcare setting to determine the incidence of micro- and macro-vascular complications and diabetes-specific and all-cause mortality. Clinical, cost, and utility data were retrieved from literature and assigned to model parameters to calculate total quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and total costs as well as incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). The analysis was conducted from the perspective of a third-party payer in Greece. Uncertainty surrounding important model parameters was explored with univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses (PSA). Over a patient's lifetime, dapagliflozin was associated with 0.48 and 0.04 incremental QALYs compared with SU and DPP-4i, respectively, at additional costs of €5142 and €756, respectively. The corresponding ICERs were €10,623 and €17,695 per QALY gained versus the treatment with SU and DPP-4i, respectively. Results were robust across various univariate and scenario analyses. At the defined willingness-to-pay threshold of €34,000 per QALY gained, PSA estimated that treatment with dapagliflozin had a 100 % and 79.7 % probability of being cost-effective relative to the SU and DPP-4i treatments. Dapagliflozin in combination with metformin was shown to be a cost-effective treatment alternative for patients with T2DM whose metformin regimen does not provide sufficient glycemic control in a Greek healthcare setting.

Palm oil taxes and cardiovascular disease mortality in India: economic-epidemiologic model

PubMed Central

Babiarz, Kim S; Ebrahim, Shah; Vellakkal, Sukumar; Stuckler, David; Goldhaber-Fiebert, Jeremy D

2013-01-01

Objective To examine the potential effect of a tax on palm oil on hyperlipidemia and on mortality due to cardiovascular disease in India. Design Economic-epidemiologic model. Modeling methods A microsimulation model of mortality due to myocardial infarction and stroke among Indian populations was constructed, incorporating nationally representative data on systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, tobacco smoking, diabetes, and cardiovascular event history, and stratified by age, sex, and urban/rural residence. Household expenditure data were used to estimate the change in consumption of palm oil following changes in oil price and the potential substitution of alternative oils that might occur after imposition of a tax. A 20% excise tax on palm oil purchases was simulated over the period 2014-23. Main outcome measures The model was used to project future mortality due to myocardial infarction and stroke, as well as the potential effect of a tax on food insecurity, accounting for the effect of increased food prices. Results A 20% tax on palm oil purchases would be expected to avert approximately 363 000 (95% confidence interval 247 000 to 479 000) deaths from myocardial infarctions and strokes over the period 2014-23 in India (1.3% reduction in cardiovascular deaths) if people do not substitute other oils for reduced palm oil consumption. Given estimates of substitution of palm oil with other oils following a 20% price increase for palm oil, the beneficial effects of increased polyunsaturated fat consumption would be expected to enhance the projected reduction in deaths to as much as 421 000 (256 000 to 586 000). The tax would be expected to benefit men more than women and urban populations more than rural populations, given differential consumption and cardiovascular risk. In a scenario incorporating the effect of taxation on overall food expenditures, the tax may increase food insecurity by <1%, resulting in 16 000 (95% confidence interval 12 000 to 22 000) deaths. Conclusions Curtailing palm oil intake through taxation may modestly reduce hyperlipidemia and cardiovascular mortality, but with potential distributional consequences differentially benefiting male and urban populations, as well as affecting food security. PMID:24149818

[Prevention of Occupational Injuries Related to Hands: Calculation of Subsequent Injury Costs for the Austrian Social Occupational Insurance Institution (AUVA)].

PubMed

Rauner, M S; Mayer, B; Schaffhauser-Linzatti, M M

2015-08-01

Occupational injuries cause short-term, direct costs as well as long-term follow-up costs over the lifetime of the casualties. Due to shrinking budgets accident insurance companies focus on cost reduction programmes and prevention measures. For this reason, a decision support system for consequential cost calculation of occupational injuries was developed for the main Austrian social occupational insurance institution (AUVA) during three projects. This so-called cost calculation tool combines the traditional instruments of accounting with quantitative methods such as micro-simulation. The cost data are derived from AUVA-internal as well as external economic data sources. Based on direct and indirect costs, the subsequent occupational accident costs from the time of an accident and, if applicable, beyond the death of the individual casualty are predicted for the AUVA, the companies in which the casualties are working, and the other economic sectors. By using this cost calculation tool, the AUVA classifies risk groups and derives related prevention campaigns. In the past, the AUVA concentrated on falling, accidents at construction sites and in agriculture/forestry, as well as commuting accidents. Currently, among others, a focus on hand injuries is given and first prevention programmes have been initiated. Hand injuries represent about 38% of all casualties with average costs of about 7,851 Euro/case. Main causes of these accidents are cutting injuries in production, agriculture, and forestry. Beside a low, but costly, number of amputations with average costs of more than 100,000 Euro/case, bone fractures and strains burden the AUVA-budget with about 17,500 and 10,500 € per case, respectively. Decision support systems such as this cost calculation tool represent necessary instruments to identify risk groups and their injured body parts, causes of accidents, and economic activities, which highly burden the budget of an injury company, and help derive countermeasures to avoid injuries. Target-group specific, suitable prevention measures for hand injuries can reduce accidents in a cost-effective way and lower their consequences. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Screening for Colorectal Cancer With Fecal Immunochemical Testing With and Without Postpolypectomy Surveillance Colonoscopy: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.

PubMed

Greuter, Marjolein J E; de Klerk, Clasine M; Meijer, Gerrit A; Dekker, Evelien; Coupé, Veerle M H

2017-10-17

Population-based screening to prevent colorectal cancer (CRC) death is effective, but the effectiveness of postpolypectomy surveillance is unclear. To evaluate the additional benefit in terms of cost-effectiveness of colonoscopy surveillance in a screening setting. Microsimulation using the ASCCA (Adenoma and Serrated pathway to Colorectal CAncer) model. Dutch CRC screening program and published literature. Asymptomatic persons aged 55 to 75 years without a prior CRC diagnosis. Lifetime. Health care payer. Fecal immunochemical test (FIT) screening with colonoscopy surveillance performed according to the Dutch guideline was simulated. The comparator was no screening or surveillance. FIT screening without colonoscopy surveillance and the effect of extending surveillance intervals were also evaluated. CRC burden, colonoscopy demand, life-years, and costs. FIT screening without surveillance reduced CRC mortality by 50.4% compared with no screening or surveillance. Adding surveillance to FIT screening reduced mortality by an additional 1.7% to 52.1% but increased lifetime colonoscopy demand by 62% (from 335 to 543 colonoscopies per 1000 persons) at an additional cost of €68 000, for an increase of 0.9 life-year. Extending the surveillance intervals to 5 years reduced CRC mortality by 51.8% and increased colonoscopy demand by 42.7% compared with FIT screening without surveillance. In an incremental analysis, incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for screening plus surveillance exceeded the Dutch willingness-to-pay threshold of €36 602 per life-year gained. When using a parameter set representing low colorectal lesion prevalence or when colonoscopy costs were halved or colorectal lesion incidence was doubled, screening plus surveillance became cost-effective compared with screening without surveillance. Limited data on FIT performance and background CRC risk in the surveillance population. Adding surveillance to FIT screening is not cost-effective based on the Dutch ICER threshold and substantially increases colonoscopy demand. Extending surveillance intervals to 5 years would decrease colonoscopy demand without substantial loss of effectiveness. Alpe d'HuZes, Dutch Cancer Society, and Stand Up To Cancer.

The cost-effectiveness of using chronic kidney disease risk scores to screen for early-stage chronic kidney disease.

PubMed

Yarnoff, Benjamin O; Hoerger, Thomas J; Simpson, Siobhan K; Leib, Alyssa; Burrows, Nilka R; Shrestha, Sundar S; Pavkov, Meda E

2017-03-13

Better treatment during early stages of chronic kidney disease (CKD) may slow progression to end-stage renal disease and decrease associated complications and medical costs. Achieving early treatment of CKD is challenging, however, because a large fraction of persons with CKD are unaware of having this disease. Screening for CKD is one important method for increasing awareness. We examined the cost-effectiveness of identifying persons for early-stage CKD screening (i.e., screening for moderate albuminuria) using published CKD risk scores. We used the CKD Health Policy Model, a micro-simulation model, to simulate the cost-effectiveness of using CKD two published risk scores by Bang et al. and Kshirsagar et al. to identify persons in the US for CKD screening with testing for albuminuria. Alternative risk score thresholds were tested (0.20, 0.15, 0.10, 0.05, and 0.02) above which persons were assigned to receive screening at alternative intervals (1-, 2-, and 5-year) for follow-up screening if the first screening was negative. We examined incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs), incremental lifetime costs divided by incremental lifetime QALYs, relative to the next higher screening threshold to assess cost-effectiveness. Cost-effective scenarios were determined as those with ICERs less than $50,000 per QALY. Among the cost-effective scenarios, the optimal scenario was determined as the one that resulted in the highest lifetime QALYs. ICERs ranged from $8,823 per QALY to $124,626 per QALY for the Bang et al. risk score and $6,342 per QALY to $405,861 per QALY for the Kshirsagar et al. risk score. The Bang et al. risk score with a threshold of 0.02 and 2-year follow-up screening was found to be optimal because it had an ICER less than $50,000 per QALY and resulted in the highest lifetime QALYs. This study indicates that using these CKD risk scores may allow clinicians to cost-effectively identify a broader population for CKD screening with testing for albuminuria and potentially detect people with CKD at earlier stages of the disease than current approaches of screening only persons with diabetes or hypertension.

Palm oil taxes and cardiovascular disease mortality in India: economic-epidemiologic model.

PubMed

Basu, Sanjay; Babiarz, Kim S; Ebrahim, Shah; Vellakkal, Sukumar; Stuckler, David; Goldhaber-Fiebert, Jeremy D

2013-10-22

To examine the potential effect of a tax on palm oil on hyperlipidemia and on mortality due to cardiovascular disease in India. Economic-epidemiologic model. A microsimulation model of mortality due to myocardial infarction and stroke among Indian populations was constructed, incorporating nationally representative data on systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, tobacco smoking, diabetes, and cardiovascular event history, and stratified by age, sex, and urban/rural residence. Household expenditure data were used to estimate the change in consumption of palm oil following changes in oil price and the potential substitution of alternative oils that might occur after imposition of a tax. A 20% excise tax on palm oil purchases was simulated over the period 2014-23. The model was used to project future mortality due to myocardial infarction and stroke, as well as the potential effect of a tax on food insecurity, accounting for the effect of increased food prices. A 20% tax on palm oil purchases would be expected to avert approximately 363,000 (95% confidence interval 247,000 to 479,000) deaths from myocardial infarctions and strokes over the period 2014-23 in India (1.3% reduction in cardiovascular deaths) if people do not substitute other oils for reduced palm oil consumption. Given estimates of substitution of palm oil with other oils following a 20% price increase for palm oil, the beneficial effects of increased polyunsaturated fat consumption would be expected to enhance the projected reduction in deaths to as much as 421,000 (256,000 to 586,000). The tax would be expected to benefit men more than women and urban populations more than rural populations, given differential consumption and cardiovascular risk. In a scenario incorporating the effect of taxation on overall food expenditures, the tax may increase food insecurity by <1%, resulting in 16,000 (95% confidence interval 12,000 to 22,000) deaths. Curtailing palm oil intake through taxation may modestly reduce hyperlipidemia and cardiovascular mortality, but with potential distributional consequences differentially benefiting male and urban populations, as well as affecting food security.

Lost productive life years caused by chronic conditions in Australians aged 45-64 years, 2010-2030.

PubMed

Schofield, Deborah J; Shrestha, Rupendra N; Cunich, Michelle; Tanton, Robert; Kelly, Simon; Passey, Megan E; Veerman, Lennert J

2015-09-21

To estimate (1) productive life years (PLYs) lost because of chronic conditions in Australians aged 45-64 years from 2010 to 2030, and (2) the impact of this loss on gross domestic product (GDP) over the same period. A microsimulation model, Health&WealthMOD2030, was used to project lost PLYs caused by chronic conditions from 2010 to 2030. The base population consisted of respondents aged 45-64 years to the Australian Bureau of Statistics Survey of Disability, Ageing and Carers 2003 and 2009. The national impact of lost PLYs was assessed with Treasury's GDP equation. Lost PLYs due to chronic disease at 2010, 2015, 2020, 2025 and 2030 (ie, whole life years lost because of chronic disease); the national impact of lost PLYs at the same time points (GDP loss caused by PLYs); the effects of population growth, labour force trends and chronic disease trends on lost PLYs and GDP at each time point. Using Health&WealthMOD2030, we estimated a loss of 347,000 PLYs in 2010; this was projected to increase to 459,000 in 2030 (32.28% increase over 20 years). The leading chronic conditions associated with premature exits from the labour force were back problems, arthritis and mental and behavioural problems. The percentage increase in the number of PLYs lost by those aged 45-64 years was greater than that of population growth for this age group (32.28% v 27.80%). The strongest driver of the increase in lost PLYs was population growth (accounting for 89.18% of the increase), followed by chronic condition trends (8.28%). Our study estimates an increase of 112 000 lost PLYs caused by chronic illness in older workers in Australia between 2010 and 2030, with the most rapid growth projected to occur in men aged 55-59 years and in women aged 60-64 years. The national impact of this lost labour force participation on GDP was estimated to be $37.79 billion in 2010, increasing to $63.73 billion in 2030.

Cost-effectiveness of dronedarone and standard of care compared with standard of care alone: US results of an ATHENA lifetime model.

PubMed

Reynolds, Matthew R; Nilsson, Jonas; Akerborg, Orjan; Jhaveri, Mehul; Lindgren, Peter

2013-01-01

The first antiarrhythmic drug to demonstrate a reduced rate of cardiovascular hospitalization in atrial fibrillation/flutter (AF/AFL) patients was dronedarone in a placebo-controlled, double-blind, parallel arm Trial to assess the efficacy of dronedarone 400 mg bid for the prevention of cardiovascular Hospitalization or death from any cause in patiENts with Atrial fibrillation/atrial flutter (ATHENA trial). The potential cost-effectiveness of dronedarone in this patient population has not been reported in a US context. This study assesses the cost-effectiveness of dronedarone from a US health care payers' perspective. ATHENA patient data were applied to a patient-level health state transition model. Probabilities of health state transitions were derived from ATHENA and published data. Associated costs used in the model (2010 values) were obtained from published sources when trial data were not available. The base-case model assumed that patients were treated with dronedarone for the duration of ATHENA (mean 21 months) and were followed over a lifetime. Cost-effectiveness, from the payers' perspective, was determined using a Monte Carlo microsimulation (1 million fictitious patients). Dronedarone plus standard care provided 0.13 life years gained (LYG), and 0.11 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), over standard care alone; cost/QALY was $19,520 and cost/LYG was $16,930. Compared to lower risk patients, patients at higher risk of stroke (Congestive heart failure, history of Hypertension, Age ≥ 75 years, Diabetes mellitus, and past history of Stroke or transient ischemic attack (CHADS(2)) scores 3-6 versus 0) had a lower cost/QALY ($9580-$16,000 versus $26,450). Cost/QALY was highest in scenarios assuming lifetime dronedarone therapy, no cardiovascular mortality benefit, no cost associated with AF/AFL recurrence on standard care, and when discounting of 5% was compared with 0%. By extrapolating the results of a large, multicenter, randomized clinical trial (ATHENA), this model suggests that dronedarone is a cost-effective treatment option for approved indications (paroxysmal/persistent AF/AFL) in the US.

Defining the Value of Future Research to Identify the Preferred Treatment of Meniscal Tear in the Presence of Knee Osteoarthritis

PubMed Central

Losina, Elena; Dervan, Elizabeth E.; Paltiel, A. David; Dong, Yan; Wright, R. John; Spindler, Kurt P.; Mandl, Lisa A.; Jones, Morgan H.; Marx, Robert G.; Safran-Norton, Clare E.; Katz, Jeffrey N.

2015-01-01

Background Arthroscopic partial meniscectomy (APM) is extensively used to relieve pain in patients with symptomatic meniscal tear (MT) and knee osteoarthritis (OA). Recent studies have failed to show the superiority of APM compared to other treatments. We aim to examine whether existing evidence is sufficient to reject use of APM as a cost-effective treatment for MT+OA. Methods We built a patient-level microsimulation using Monte Carlo methods and evaluated three strategies: Physical therapy (‘PT’) alone; PT followed by APM if subjects continued to experience pain (‘Delayed APM’); and ‘Immediate APM’. Our subject population was US adults with symptomatic MT and knee OA over a 10 year time horizon. We assessed treatment outcomes using societal costs, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs), incorporating productivity costs as a sensitivity analysis. We also conducted a value-of-information analysis using probabilistic sensitivity analyses. Results Calculated ICERs were estimated to be $12,900/QALY for Delayed APM as compared to PT and $103,200/QALY for Immediate APM as compared to Delayed APM. In sensitivity analyses, inclusion of time costs made Delayed APM cost-saving as compared to PT. Improving efficacy of Delayed APM led to higher incremental costs and lower incremental effectiveness of Immediate APM in comparison to Delayed APM. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses indicated that PT had 3.0% probability of being cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of $50,000/QALY. Delayed APM was cost effective 57.7% of the time at WTP = $50,000/QALY and 50.2% at WTP = $100,000/QALY. The probability of Immediate APM being cost-effective did not exceed 50% unless WTP exceeded $103,000/QALY. Conclusions We conclude that current cost-effectiveness evidence does not support unqualified rejection of either Immediate or Delayed APM for the treatment of MT+OA. The amount to which society would be willing to pay for additional information on treatment outcomes greatly exceeds the cost of conducting another randomized controlled trial on APM. PMID:26086246

Effect of rising chemotherapy costs on the cost savings of colorectal cancer screening.

PubMed

Lansdorp-Vogelaar, Iris; van Ballegooijen, Marjolein; Zauber, Ann G; Habbema, J Dik F; Kuipers, Ernst J

2009-10-21

Although colorectal cancer screening is cost-effective, it requires a considerable net investment by governments or insurance companies. If screening was cost saving, governments and insurance companies might be more inclined to invest in colorectal cancer screening programs. We examined whether colorectal cancer screening would become cost saving with the widespread use of the newer, more expensive chemotherapies. We used the MISCAN-Colon microsimulation model to assess whether widespread use of new chemotherapies would affect the treatment savings of colorectal cancer screening in the general population. We considered three scenarios for chemotherapy use: the past, the present, and the near future. We assumed that survival improved and treatment costs for patients diagnosed with advanced stages of colorectal cancer increased over the scenarios. Screening strategies considered were annual guaiac fecal occult blood testing (FOBT), annual immunochemical FOBT, sigmoidoscopy every 5 years, colonoscopy every 10 years, and the combination of sigmoidoscopy every 5 years and annual guaiac FOBT. Analyses were conducted from the perspective of the health-care system for a cohort of 50-year-old individuals who were at average risk of colorectal cancer and were screened with 100% adherence from age 50 years to age 80 years and followed up until death. Compared with no screening, the treatment savings from preventing advanced colorectal cancer and colorectal cancer deaths by screening more than doubled with the widespread use of new chemotherapies. The lifetime average treatment savings were larger than the lifetime average screening costs for screening with Hemoccult II, immunochemical FOBT, sigmoidoscopy, and the combination of sigmoidoscopy and Hemoccult II (average savings vs costs per individual in the population: Hemoccult II, $1398 vs $859; immunochemical FOBT, $1756 vs $1565; sigmoidoscopy, $1706 vs $1575; sigmoidoscopy and Hemoccult II $1931 vs $1878). Colonoscopy did not become cost saving, but the total net costs of this strategy decreased from $1317 to $296 per individual in the population. With the increase in chemotherapy costs for advanced colorectal cancer, most colorectal cancer screening strategies have become cost saving. As a consequence, screening is a desirable approach not only to reduce colorectal cancer incidence and mortality but also to control the costs of colorectal cancer treatment.

Cancer care coordinators in stage III colon cancer: a cost-utility analysis.

PubMed

Blakely, Tony; Collinson, Lucie; Kvizhinadze, Giorgi; Nair, Nisha; Foster, Rachel; Dennett, Elizabeth; Sarfati, Diana

2015-08-05

There is momentum internationally to improve coordination of complex care pathways. Robust evaluations of such interventions are scarce. This paper evaluates the cost-utility of cancer care coordinators for stage III colon cancer patients, who generally require surgery followed by chemotherapy. We compared a hospital-based nurse cancer care coordinator (CCC) with 'business-as-usual' (no dedicated coordination service) in stage III colon cancer patients in New Zealand. A discrete event microsimulation model was constructed to estimate quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and costs from a health system perspective. We used New Zealand data on colon cancer incidence, survival, and mortality as baseline input parameters for the model. We specified intervention input parameters using available literature and expert estimates. For example, that a CCC would improve the coverage of chemotherapy by 33% (ranging from 9 to 65%), reduce the time to surgery by 20% (3 to 48%), reduce the time to chemotherapy by 20% (3 to 48%), and reduce patient anxiety (reduction in disability weight of 33%, ranging from 0 to 55%). Much of the direct cost of a nurse CCC was balanced by savings in business-as-usual care coordination. Much of the health gain was through increased coverage of chemotherapy with a CCC (especially older patients), and reduced time to chemotherapy. Compared to 'business-as-usual', the cost per QALY of the CCC programme was $NZ 18,900 (≈ $US 15,600; 95% UI: $NZ 13,400 to 24,600). By age, the CCC intervention was more cost-effective for colon cancer patients < 65 years ($NZ 9,400 per QALY). By ethnicity, the health gains were larger for Māori, but so too were the costs, meaning the cost-effectiveness was roughly comparable between ethnic groups. Such a nurse-led CCC intervention in New Zealand has acceptable cost-effectiveness for stage III colon cancer, meaning it probably merits funding. Each CCC programme will differ in its likely health gains and costs, making generalisation from this evaluation to other CCC interventions difficult. However, this evaluation suggests that CCC interventions that increase coverage of, and reduce time to, effective treatments may be cost-effective.

Methods applied in cost-effectiveness models for treatment strategies in type 2 diabetes mellitus and their use in Health Technology Assessments: a systematic review of the literature from 2008 to 2013.

PubMed

Charokopou, M; Sabater, F J; Townsend, R; Roudaut, M; McEwan, P; Verheggen, B G

2016-01-01

To identify and compare health-economic models that were developed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of treatments for type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), and their use within Health Technology Assessments (HTAs). In total, six commonly used databases were searched for articles published between October 2008 and January 2013, using a protocolized search strategy and inclusion criteria. The websites of HTA organizations in nine countries, and proceedings from five relevant conferences, were also reviewed. The identified new health-economic models were qualitatively assessed using six criteria that were developed based on technical components, and characteristics related to the disease or the treatments being assessed. Finally, the number of times the models were applied within HTA reports, published literature, and/or major conferences was determined. Thirteen new models were identified and reviewed in depth. Most of these were based on identical key data sources, and applied a similar model structure, either using Markov modeling or microsimulation techniques. The UKPDS equations and panel regressions were frequently used to estimate the occurrence of diabetes-related complications and the probability of developing risk factors in the long term. The qualitative assessment demonstrated that the CARDIFF, Sheffield T2DM and ECHO T2DM models seem technically equipped to appropriately assess the long-term health-economic consequences of chronic treatments for patients with T2DM. It was observed that the CORE model is the most widely described in literature and conferences, and the most often applied model within HTA submissions, followed by the CARDIFF and UKPDS models. This research provides an overview of T2DM models that were developed between 2008 and January 2013. The outcomes of the qualitative assessments, combined with frequent use in local reimbursement decisions, prove the applicability of the CORE, CARDIFF and UKPDS models to address decision problems related to the long-term clinical and economic consequences of new and existing T2DM treatments.

Cost-effectiveness of malaria preventive treatment for HIV-infected pregnant women in sub-Saharan Africa.

PubMed

Choi, Sung Eun; Brandeau, Margaret L; Bendavid, Eran

2017-10-06

Malaria is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality among HIV-infected pregnant women in sub-Saharan Africa: at least 1 million pregnancies among HIV-infected women are complicated by co-infection with malaria annually, leading to increased risk of premature delivery, severe anaemia, delivery of low birth weight infants, and maternal death. Current guidelines recommend either daily cotrimoxazole (CTX) or intermittent preventive treatment with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (IPTp-SP) for HIV-infected pregnant women to prevent malaria and its complications. The cost-effectiveness of CTX compared to IPTp-SP among HIV-infected pregnant women was assessed. A microsimulation model of malaria and HIV among pregnant women in five malaria-endemic countries in sub-Saharan Africa was constructed. Four strategies were compared: (1) 2-dose IPTp-SP at current IPTp-SP coverage of the country ("2-IPT Low"); (2) 3-dose IPTp-SP at current coverage ("3-IPT Low"); (3) 3-dose IPTp-SP at the same coverage as antiretroviral therapy (ART) in the country ("3-IPT High"); and (4) daily CTX at ART coverage. Outcomes measured include maternal malaria, anaemia, low birth weight (LBW), and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Sensitivity analyses assessed the effect of adherence to CTX. Compared with the 2-IPT Low Strategy, women receiving CTX had 22.5% fewer LBW infants (95% CI 22.3-22.7), 13.5% fewer anaemia cases (95% CI 13.4-13.5), and 13.6% fewer maternal malaria cases (95% CI 13.6-13.7). In all simulated countries, CTX was the preferred strategy, with incremental cost-effectiveness ratios ranging from cost-saving to $3.9 per DALY averted from a societal perspective. CTX was less effective than the 3-IPT High Strategy when more than 18% of women stopped taking CTX during the pregnancy. In malarious regions of sub-Saharan Africa, daily CTX for HIV-infected pregnant women regardless of CD4 cell count is cost-effective compared with 3-dose IPTp-SP as long as more than 82% of women adhere to daily dosing.

Evaluation of a Urine Pooling Strategy for the Rapid and Cost-Efficient Prevalence Classification of Schistosomiasis.

PubMed

Lo, Nathan C; Coulibaly, Jean T; Bendavid, Eran; N'Goran, Eliézer K; Utzinger, Jürg; Keiser, Jennifer; Bogoch, Isaac I; Andrews, Jason R

2016-08-01

A key epidemiologic feature of schistosomiasis is its focal distribution, which has important implications for the spatial targeting of preventive chemotherapy programs. We evaluated the diagnostic accuracy of a urine pooling strategy using a point-of-care circulating cathodic antigen (POC-CCA) cassette test for detection of Schistosoma mansoni, and employed simulation modeling to test the classification accuracy and efficiency of this strategy in determining where preventive chemotherapy is needed in low-endemicity settings. We performed a cross-sectional study involving 114 children aged 6-15 years in six neighborhoods in Azaguié Ahoua, south Côte d'Ivoire to characterize the sensitivity and specificity of the POC-CCA cassette test with urine samples that were tested individually and in pools of 4, 8, and 12. We used a Bayesian latent class model to estimate test characteristics for individual POC-CCA and quadruplicate Kato-Katz thick smears on stool samples. We then developed a microsimulation model and used lot quality assurance sampling to test the performance, number of tests, and total cost per school for each pooled testing strategy to predict the binary need for school-based preventive chemotherapy using a 10% prevalence threshold for treatment. The sensitivity of the urine pooling strategy for S. mansoni diagnosis using pool sizes of 4, 8, and 12 was 85.9%, 79.5%, and 65.4%, respectively, when POC-CCA trace results were considered positive, and 61.5%, 47.4%, and 30.8% when POC-CCA trace results were considered negative. The modeled specificity ranged from 94.0-97.7% for the urine pooling strategies (when POC-CCA trace results were considered negative). The urine pooling strategy, regardless of the pool size, gave comparable and often superior classification performance to stool microscopy for the same number of tests. The urine pooling strategy with a pool size of 4 reduced the number of tests and total cost compared to classical stool microscopy. This study introduces a method for rapid and efficient S. mansoni prevalence estimation through examining pooled urine samples with POC-CCA as an alternative to widely used stool microscopy.

Evaluation of a Urine Pooling Strategy for the Rapid and Cost-Efficient Prevalence Classification of Schistosomiasis

PubMed Central

Coulibaly, Jean T.; Bendavid, Eran; N’Goran, Eliézer K.; Utzinger, Jürg; Keiser, Jennifer; Bogoch, Isaac I.; Andrews, Jason R.

2016-01-01

Background A key epidemiologic feature of schistosomiasis is its focal distribution, which has important implications for the spatial targeting of preventive chemotherapy programs. We evaluated the diagnostic accuracy of a urine pooling strategy using a point-of-care circulating cathodic antigen (POC-CCA) cassette test for detection of Schistosoma mansoni, and employed simulation modeling to test the classification accuracy and efficiency of this strategy in determining where preventive chemotherapy is needed in low-endemicity settings. Methodology We performed a cross-sectional study involving 114 children aged 6–15 years in six neighborhoods in Azaguié Ahoua, south Côte d’Ivoire to characterize the sensitivity and specificity of the POC-CCA cassette test with urine samples that were tested individually and in pools of 4, 8, and 12. We used a Bayesian latent class model to estimate test characteristics for individual POC-CCA and quadruplicate Kato-Katz thick smears on stool samples. We then developed a microsimulation model and used lot quality assurance sampling to test the performance, number of tests, and total cost per school for each pooled testing strategy to predict the binary need for school-based preventive chemotherapy using a 10% prevalence threshold for treatment. Principal Findings The sensitivity of the urine pooling strategy for S. mansoni diagnosis using pool sizes of 4, 8, and 12 was 85.9%, 79.5%, and 65.4%, respectively, when POC-CCA trace results were considered positive, and 61.5%, 47.4%, and 30.8% when POC-CCA trace results were considered negative. The modeled specificity ranged from 94.0–97.7% for the urine pooling strategies (when POC-CCA trace results were considered negative). The urine pooling strategy, regardless of the pool size, gave comparable and often superior classification performance to stool microscopy for the same number of tests. The urine pooling strategy with a pool size of 4 reduced the number of tests and total cost compared to classical stool microscopy. Conclusions/Significance This study introduces a method for rapid and efficient S. mansoni prevalence estimation through examining pooled urine samples with POC-CCA as an alternative to widely used stool microscopy. PMID:27504954

Cost-effectiveness of gemcitabine in stage IV non-small cell lung cancer: an estimate using the Population Health Model lung cancer module.

PubMed

Evans, W K

1997-04-01

Statistics Canada (Ottawa, Ontario, Canada) is in the process of developing the Population Health Model to simulate the health and common illnesses of Canadians. The Population Health Model incorporates a lung cancer module that is based on contemporary Canadian practice. This microsimulation model can be used to estimate the total direct care costs of treating all lung cancer cases diagnosed in Canada and to evaluate the cost and cost-effectiveness of new therapeutic interventions as they are introduced into practice. Gemcitabine, a new nucleoside analogue with a broad spectrum of antitumor activity, is about to be introduced on the Canadian market. The Population Health Model has been used to estimate the cost-effectiveness of gemcitabine in the management of lung cancer over a range of drug doses per treatment cycle starting at 1,000 mg/m2 weekly x 3, as well as potential survival benefits. The survival of stage IV non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients treated on an international trial of gemcitabine (EO-18) was used to estimate the potential survival gain relative to the survival of stage IV NSCLC patients managed with best supportive care on a randomized trial conducted by the National Cancer Institute of Canada (BR 5). Sensitivity analyses were performed assuming that the survival gain was 25% or 50% less than that reported in the EO-18 trial. The perspective of the economic analysis is that of the government as payer in a universal health care system, and all costs are expressed in 1993 Canadian dollars. Based on the apparent survival advantage of the EO-18 trial in comparison to best supportive care, the cost per life-year gained ranged from $632 to $9,285, depending on the dose per treatment cycle. At the highest dose per cycle (2,000 mg/m2) and with survival reduced by 50% as compared with the EO-18 result, the cost per life-year gained was estimated to be $17,390. From these estimates of direct care costs in the Canadian health care system, gemcitabine appears to be a cost-effective intervention for advanced NSCLC.

Cost-effectiveness of percutaneous coronary intervention with drug-eluting stents versus bypass surgery for patients with 3-vessel or left main coronary artery disease: final results from the Synergy Between Percutaneous Coronary Intervention With TAXUS and Cardiac Surgery (SYNTAX) trial.

PubMed

Cohen, David J; Osnabrugge, Ruben L; Magnuson, Elizabeth A; Wang, Kaijun; Li, Haiyan; Chinnakondepalli, Khaja; Pinto, Duane; Abdallah, Mouin S; Vilain, Katherine A; Morice, Marie-Claude; Dawkins, Keith D; Kappetein, A Pieter; Mohr, Friedrich W; Serruys, Patrick W

2014-09-30

The Synergy Between Percutaneous Coronary Intervention With TAXUS and Cardiac Surgery (SYNTAX) trial demonstrated that in patients with 3-vessel or left main coronary artery disease, coronary artery bypass graft surgery (CABG) was associated with a lower rate of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, stroke, or repeat revascularization compared with percutaneous coronary revascularization with drug-eluting stents (DES-PCI)). The long-term cost-effectiveness of these strategies is unknown. Between 2005 and 2007, 1800 patients with left main or 3-vessel coronary artery disease were randomized to CABG (n=897) or DES-PCI (n=903). Costs were assessed from a US perspective, and health state utilities were evaluated with the EuroQOL questionnaire. A patient-level microsimulation model based on the 5-year in-trial data was used to extrapolate costs, life expectancy, and quality-adjusted life expectancy over a lifetime horizon. Although initial procedural costs were $3415 per patient lower with CABG, total hospitalization costs were $10 036 per patient higher. Over the next 5 years, follow-up costs were higher with DES-PCI as a result of more frequent hospitalizations, revascularization procedures, and higher medication costs. Over a lifetime horizon, CABG remained more costly than DES-PCI, but the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was favorable ($16 537 per quality-adjusted life-year gained) and remained <$20 000 per quality-adjusted life-year in most bootstrap replicates. Results were consistent across a wide range of assumptions about the long-term effect of CABG versus DES-PCI on events and costs. In patients with left main disease or a SYNTAX score ≤22, however, DES-PCI was economically dominant compared with CABG, although these findings were less certain. For most patients with 3-vessel or left main coronary artery disease, CABG is a clinically and economically attractive revascularization strategy compared with DES-PCI. However, among patients with less complex disease, DES-PCI may be preferred on both clinical and economic grounds. www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00114972. © 2014 American Heart Association, Inc.

Averting obesity and type 2 diabetes in India through sugar-sweetened beverage taxation: an economic-epidemiologic modeling study.

PubMed

Basu, Sanjay; Vellakkal, Sukumar; Agrawal, Sutapa; Stuckler, David; Popkin, Barry; Ebrahim, Shah

2014-01-01

Taxing sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) has been proposed in high-income countries to reduce obesity and type 2 diabetes. We sought to estimate the potential health effects of such a fiscal strategy in the middle-income country of India, where there is heterogeneity in SSB consumption, patterns of substitution between SSBs and other beverages after tax increases, and vast differences in chronic disease risk within the population. Using consumption and price variations data from a nationally representative survey of 100,855 Indian households, we first calculated how changes in SSB price alter per capita consumption of SSBs and substitution with other beverages. We then incorporated SSB sales trends, body mass index (BMI), and diabetes incidence data stratified by age, sex, income, and urban/rural residence into a validated microsimulation of caloric consumption, glycemic load, overweight/obesity prevalence, and type 2 diabetes incidence among Indian subpopulations facing a 20% SSB excise tax. The 20% SSB tax was anticipated to reduce overweight and obesity prevalence by 3.0% (95% CI 1.6%-5.9%) and type 2 diabetes incidence by 1.6% (95% CI 1.2%-1.9%) among various Indian subpopulations over the period 2014-2023, if SSB consumption continued to increase linearly in accordance with secular trends. However, acceleration in SSB consumption trends consistent with industry marketing models would be expected to increase the impact efficacy of taxation, averting 4.2% of prevalent overweight/obesity (95% CI 2.5-10.0%) and 2.5% (95% CI 1.0-2.8%) of incident type 2 diabetes from 2014-2023. Given current consumption and BMI distributions, our results suggest the largest relative effect would be expected among young rural men, refuting our a priori hypothesis that urban populations would be isolated beneficiaries of SSB taxation. Key limitations of this estimation approach include the assumption that consumer expenditure behavior from prior years, captured in price elasticities, will reflect future behavior among consumers, and potential underreporting of consumption in dietary recall data used to inform our calculations. Sustained SSB taxation at a high tax rate could mitigate rising obesity and type 2 diabetes in India among both urban and rural subpopulations.

Aspirin for the Primary Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease and Colorectal Cancer: A Decision Analysis for the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force.

PubMed

Dehmer, Steven P; Maciosek, Michael V; Flottemesch, Thomas J; LaFrance, Amy B; Whitlock, Evelyn P

2016-06-21

Evidence indicates that aspirin is effective for the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and colorectal cancer (CRC) but also increases the risk for gastrointestinal (GI) and cerebral hemorrhages. To assess the net balance of benefits and harms from routine aspirin use across clinically relevant age, sex, and CVD risk groups. Decision analysis using a microsimulation model. 3 systematic evidence reviews. Men and women aged 40 to 79 years with a 10-year CVD risk of 20% or less, and no history of CVD and without elevated risk for GI or cerebral hemorrhages that would contraindicate aspirin use. Lifetime, 20 years, and 10 years. Clinical. Low-dose aspirin (≤100 mg/d). Primary outcomes are length and quality of life measured in net life-years and quality-adjusted life-years. Benefits include reduced nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal ischemic stroke, fatal CVD, CRC incidence, and CRC mortality. Harms include increased fatal and nonfatal GI bleeding and hemorrhagic stroke. Lifetime net quality-adjusted life-years are positive for most adults initiating aspirin at ages 40 to 69 years, and life expectancy gains are expected for most men and women initiating aspirin at ages 40 to 59 years and 60 to 69 years with higher CVD risk. Harms may exceed benefits for persons starting aspirin in their 70s and for many during the first 10 to 20 years of use. Results are most sensitive to the relative risk for hemorrhagic stroke and CVD mortality but are affected by all relative risk estimates, baseline GI bleeding incidence and case-fatality rates, and disutilities associated with aspirin use. Aspirin effects by age are uncertain. Stroke benefits are conservatively estimated. Gastrointestinal bleeding incidence and case-fatality rates account only for age and sex. Lifetime aspirin use for primary prevention initiated at younger ages (40 to 69 years) and in persons with higher CVD risk shows the greatest potential for positive net benefit. Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality.

The Long-Term Benefits of Increased Aspirin Use by At-Risk Americans Aged 50 and Older.

PubMed

Agus, David B; Gaudette, Étienne; Goldman, Dana P; Messali, Andrew

2016-01-01

The usefulness of aspirin to defend against cardiovascular disease in both primary and secondary settings is well recognized by the medical profession. Multiple studies also have found that daily aspirin significantly reduces cancer incidence and mortality. Despite these proven health benefits, aspirin use remains low among populations targeted by cardiovascular prevention guidelines. This article seeks to determine the long-term economic and population-health impact of broader use of aspirin by older Americans at higher risk for cardiovascular disease. We employ the Future Elderly Model, a dynamic microsimulation that follows Americans aged 50 and older, to project their lifetime health and spending under the status quo and in various scenarios of expanded aspirin use. The model is based primarily on data from the Health and Retirement Study, a large, representative, national survey that has been ongoing for more than two decades. Outcomes are chosen to provide a broad perspective of the individual and societal impacts of the interventions and include: heart disease, stroke, cancer, life expectancy, quality-adjusted life expectancy, disability-free life expectancy, and medical costs. Eligibility for increased aspirin use in simulations is based on the 2011-2012 questionnaire on preventive aspirin use of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. These data reveal a large unmet need for daily aspirin, with over 40% of men and 10% of women aged 50 to 79 presenting high cardiovascular risk but not taking aspirin. We estimate that increased use by high-risk older Americans would improve national life expectancy at age 50 by 0.28 years (95% CI 0.08-0.50) and would add 900,000 people (95% CI 300,000-1,400,000) to the American population by 2036. After valuing the quality-adjusted life-years appropriately, Americans could expect $692 billion (95% CI 345-975) in net health benefits over that period. Expanded use of aspirin by older Americans with elevated risk of cardiovascular disease could generate substantial population health benefits over the next twenty years and do so very cost-effectively.

The Long-Term Benefits of Increased Aspirin Use by At-Risk Americans Aged 50 and Older

PubMed Central

Agus, David B.; Gaudette, Étienne; Goldman, Dana P.; Messali, Andrew

2016-01-01

Background The usefulness of aspirin to defend against cardiovascular disease in both primary and secondary settings is well recognized by the medical profession. Multiple studies also have found that daily aspirin significantly reduces cancer incidence and mortality. Despite these proven health benefits, aspirin use remains low among populations targeted by cardiovascular prevention guidelines. This article seeks to determine the long-term economic and population-health impact of broader use of aspirin by older Americans at higher risk for cardiovascular disease. Methods and Findings We employ the Future Elderly Model, a dynamic microsimulation that follows Americans aged 50 and older, to project their lifetime health and spending under the status quo and in various scenarios of expanded aspirin use. The model is based primarily on data from the Health and Retirement Study, a large, representative, national survey that has been ongoing for more than two decades. Outcomes are chosen to provide a broad perspective of the individual and societal impacts of the interventions and include: heart disease, stroke, cancer, life expectancy, quality-adjusted life expectancy, disability-free life expectancy, and medical costs. Eligibility for increased aspirin use in simulations is based on the 2011–2012 questionnaire on preventive aspirin use of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. These data reveal a large unmet need for daily aspirin, with over 40% of men and 10% of women aged 50 to 79 presenting high cardiovascular risk but not taking aspirin. We estimate that increased use by high-risk older Americans would improve national life expectancy at age 50 by 0.28 years (95% CI 0.08–0.50) and would add 900,000 people (95% CI 300,000–1,400,000) to the American population by 2036. After valuing the quality-adjusted life-years appropriately, Americans could expect $692 billion (95% CI 345–975) in net health benefits over that period. Conclusions Expanded use of aspirin by older Americans with elevated risk of cardiovascular disease could generate substantial population health benefits over the next twenty years and do so very cost-effectively. PMID:27902693

The effect of tobacco control measures during a period of rising cardiovascular disease risk in India: a mathematical model of myocardial infarction and stroke.

PubMed

Basu, Sanjay; Glantz, Stanton; Bitton, Asaf; Millett, Christopher

2013-01-01

We simulated tobacco control and pharmacological strategies for preventing cardiovascular deaths in India, the country that is expected to experience more cardiovascular deaths than any other over the next decade. A microsimulation model was developed to quantify the differential effects of various tobacco control measures and pharmacological therapies on myocardial infarction and stroke deaths stratified by age, gender, and urban/rural status for 2013 to 2022. The model incorporated population-representative data from India on multiple risk factors that affect myocardial infarction and stroke mortality, including hypertension, hyperlipidemia, diabetes, coronary heart disease, and cerebrovascular disease. We also included data from India on cigarette smoking, bidi smoking, chewing tobacco, and secondhand smoke. According to the model's results, smoke-free legislation and tobacco taxation would likely be the most effective strategy among a menu of tobacco control strategies (including, as well, brief cessation advice by health care providers, mass media campaigns, and an advertising ban) for reducing myocardial infarction and stroke deaths over the next decade, while cessation advice would be expected to be the least effective strategy at the population level. In combination, these tobacco control interventions could avert 25% of myocardial infarctions and strokes (95% CI: 17%-34%) if the effects of the interventions are additive. These effects are substantially larger than would be achieved through aspirin, antihypertensive, and statin therapy under most scenarios, because of limited treatment access and adherence; nevertheless, the impacts of tobacco control policies and pharmacological interventions appear to be markedly synergistic, averting up to one-third of deaths from myocardial infarction and stroke among 20- to 79-y-olds over the next 10 y. Pharmacological therapies could also be considerably more potent with further health system improvements. Smoke-free laws and substantially increased tobacco taxation appear to be markedly potent population measures to avert future cardiovascular deaths in India. Despite the rise in co-morbid cardiovascular disease risk factors like hyperlipidemia and hypertension in low- and middle-income countries, tobacco control is likely to remain a highly effective strategy to reduce cardiovascular deaths.

Economic evaluation of decompressive craniectomy versus barbiturate coma for refractory intracranial hypertension following traumatic brain injury.

PubMed

Alali, Aziz S; Naimark, David M J; Wilson, Jefferson R; Fowler, Robert A; Scales, Damon C; Golan, Eyal; Mainprize, Todd G; Ray, Joel G; Nathens, Avery B

2014-10-01

Decompressive craniectomy and barbiturate coma are often used as second-tier strategies when intracranial hypertension following severe traumatic brain injury is refractory to first-line treatments. Uncertainty surrounds the decision to choose either treatment option. We investigated which strategy is more economically attractive in this context. We performed a cost-utility analysis. A Markov Monte Carlo microsimulation model with a life-long time horizon was created to compare quality-adjusted survival and cost of the two treatment strategies, from the perspective of healthcare payer. Model parameters were estimated from the literature. Two-dimensional simulation was used to incorporate parameter uncertainty into the model. Value of information analysis was conducted to identify major drivers of decision uncertainty and focus future research. Trauma centers in the United States. Base case was a population of patients (mean age = 25 yr) who developed refractory intracranial hypertension following traumatic brain injury. We compared two treatment strategies: decompressive craniectomy and barbiturate coma. Decompressive craniectomy was associated with an average gain of 1.5 quality-adjusted life years relative to barbiturate coma, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $9,565/quality-adjusted life year gained. Decompressive craniectomy resulted in a greater quality-adjusted life expectancy 86% of the time and was more cost-effective than barbiturate coma in 78% of cases if our willingness-to-pay threshold is $50,000/quality-adjusted life year and 82% of cases at a threshold of $100,000/quality-adjusted life year. At older age, decompressive craniectomy continued to increase survival but at higher cost (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio = $197,906/quality-adjusted life year at mean age = 85 yr). Based on available evidence, decompressive craniectomy for the treatment of refractory intracranial hypertension following traumatic brain injury provides better value in terms of costs and health gains than barbiturate coma. However, decompressive craniectomy might be less economically attractive for older patients. Further research, particularly on natural history of severe traumatic brain injury patients, is needed to make more informed treatment decisions.

Identifying cost-effective treatment with raloxifene in postmenopausal women using risk algorithms for fractures and invasive breast cancer.

PubMed

Ivergård, M; Ström, O; Borgström, F; Burge, R T; Tosteson, A N A; Kanis, J

2010-11-01

The National Osteoporosis Foundation (NOF) recommends considering treatment in women with a 20% or higher 10-year probability of a major fracture. However, raloxifene reduces both the risk of vertebral fractures and invasive breast cancer so that raloxifene treatment may be clinically appropriate and cost-effective in women who do not meet a 20% threshold risk. The aim of this study was to identify cost-effective scenarios of raloxifene treatment compared to no treatment in younger postmenopausal women at increased risk of invasive breast cancer and fracture risks below 20%. A micro-simulation model populated with data specific to American Caucasian women was used to quantify the costs and benefits of 5-year raloxifene treatment. The population evaluated was selected based on 10-year major fracture probability as estimated with FRAX® being below 20% and 5-year invasive breast cancer risk as estimated with the Gail risk model ranging from 1% to 5%. The cost per QALY gained ranged from US $22,000 in women age 55 with 5% invasive breast cancer risk and 15-19.9% fracture probability, to $110,000 in women age 55 with 1% invasive breast cancer risk and 5-9.9% fracture probability. Raloxifene was progressively cost-effective with increasing fracture risk and invasive breast cancer risk for a given age cohort. At lower fracture risk in combination with lower invasive breast cancer risk or when no preventive raloxifene effect on invasive breast cancer was assumed, the cost-effectiveness of raloxifene worsened markedly and was not cost-effective given a willingness-to-pay of US $50,000. At fracture risk of 15-19.9% raloxifene was cost-effective also in women at lower invasive breast cancer risk. Raloxifene is potentially cost-effective in cohorts of young postmenopausal women, who do not meet the suggested NOF 10-year fracture risk threshold. The cost-effectiveness is contingent on their 5-year invasive breast cancer risk. The result highlights the importance of considering a woman's full risk profile when considering anti-osteoporosis treatment. Copyright © 2010. Published by Elsevier Inc.

The current and potential health benefits of the National Health Service Health Check cardiovascular disease prevention programme in England: A microsimulation study

PubMed Central

Jackson, Christopher; Steinacher, Arno; Goodman, Anna; Langenberg, Claudia; Griffin, Simon

2018-01-01

Background The National Health Service (NHS) Health Check programme was introduced in 2009 in England to systematically assess all adults in midlife for cardiovascular disease risk factors. However, its current benefit and impact on health inequalities are unknown. It is also unclear whether feasible changes in how it is delivered could result in increased benefits. It is one of the first such programmes in the world. We sought to estimate the health benefits and effect on inequalities of the current NHS Health Check programme and the impact of making feasible changes to its implementation. Methods and findings We developed a microsimulation model to estimate the health benefits (incident ischaemic heart disease, stroke, dementia, and lung cancer) of the NHS Health Check programme in England. We simulated a population of adults in England aged 40–45 years and followed until age 100 years, using data from the Health Survey of England (2009–2012) and the English Longitudinal Study of Aging (1998–2012), to simulate changes in risk factors for simulated individuals over time. We used recent programme data to describe uptake of NHS Health Checks and of 4 associated interventions (statin medication, antihypertensive medication, smoking cessation, and weight management). Estimates of treatment efficacy and adherence were based on trial data. We estimated the benefits of the current NHS Health Check programme compared to a healthcare system without systematic health checks. This counterfactual scenario models the detection and treatment of risk factors that occur within ‘routine’ primary care. We also explored the impact of making feasible changes to implementation of the programme concerning eligibility, uptake of NHS Health Checks, and uptake of treatments offered through the programme. We estimate that the NHS Health Check programme prevents 390 (95% credible interval 290 to 500) premature deaths before 80 years of age and results in an additional 1,370 (95% credible interval 1,100 to 1,690) people being free of disease (ischaemic heart disease, stroke, dementia, and lung cancer) at age 80 years per million people aged 40–45 years at baseline. Over the life of the cohort (i.e., followed from 40–45 years to 100 years), the changes result in an additional 10,000 (95% credible interval 8,200 to 13,000) quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and an additional 9,000 (6,900 to 11,300) years of life. This equates to approximately 300 fewer premature deaths and 1,000 more people living free of these diseases each year in England. We estimate that the current programme is increasing QALYs by 3.8 days (95% credible interval 3.0–4.7) per head of population and increasing survival by 3.3 days (2.5–4.1) per head of population over the 60 years of follow-up. The current programme has a greater absolute impact on health for those living in the most deprived areas compared to those living in the least deprived areas (4.4 [2.7–6.5] days of additional quality-adjusted life per head of population versus 2.8 [1.7–4.0] days; 5.1 [3.4–7.1] additional days lived per head of population versus 3.3 [2.1–4.5] days). Making feasible changes to the delivery of the existing programme could result in a sizable increase in the benefit. For example, a strategy that combines extending eligibility to those with preexisting hypertension, extending the upper age of eligibility to 79 years, increasing uptake of health checks by 30%, and increasing treatment rates 2.5-fold amongst eligible patients (i.e., ‘maximum potential’ scenario) results in at least a 3-fold increase in benefits compared to the current programme (1,360 premature deaths versus 390; 5,100 people free of 1 of the 4 diseases versus 1,370; 37,000 additional QALYs versus 10,000; 33,000 additional years of life versus 9,000). Ensuring those who are assessed and eligible for statins receive statins is a particularly important strategy to increase benefits. Estimates of overall benefit are based on current incidence and management, and future declines in disease incidence or improvements in treatment could alter the actual benefits observed in the long run. We have focused on the cardiovascular element of the NHS Health Check programme. Some important noncardiovascular health outcomes (e.g., chronic obstructive pulmonary disease [COPD] prevention from smoking cessation and cancer prevention from weight loss) and other parts of the programme (e.g., brief interventions to reduce harmful alcohol consumption) have not been modelled. Conclusions Our model indicates that the current NHS Health Check programme is contributing to improvements in health and reducing health inequalities. Feasible changes in the organisation of the programme could result in more than a 3-fold increase in health benefits. PMID:29509767

The current and potential health benefits of the National Health Service Health Check cardiovascular disease prevention programme in England: A microsimulation study.

PubMed

Mytton, Oliver T; Jackson, Christopher; Steinacher, Arno; Goodman, Anna; Langenberg, Claudia; Griffin, Simon; Wareham, Nick; Woodcock, James

2018-03-01

The National Health Service (NHS) Health Check programme was introduced in 2009 in England to systematically assess all adults in midlife for cardiovascular disease risk factors. However, its current benefit and impact on health inequalities are unknown. It is also unclear whether feasible changes in how it is delivered could result in increased benefits. It is one of the first such programmes in the world. We sought to estimate the health benefits and effect on inequalities of the current NHS Health Check programme and the impact of making feasible changes to its implementation. We developed a microsimulation model to estimate the health benefits (incident ischaemic heart disease, stroke, dementia, and lung cancer) of the NHS Health Check programme in England. We simulated a population of adults in England aged 40-45 years and followed until age 100 years, using data from the Health Survey of England (2009-2012) and the English Longitudinal Study of Aging (1998-2012), to simulate changes in risk factors for simulated individuals over time. We used recent programme data to describe uptake of NHS Health Checks and of 4 associated interventions (statin medication, antihypertensive medication, smoking cessation, and weight management). Estimates of treatment efficacy and adherence were based on trial data. We estimated the benefits of the current NHS Health Check programme compared to a healthcare system without systematic health checks. This counterfactual scenario models the detection and treatment of risk factors that occur within 'routine' primary care. We also explored the impact of making feasible changes to implementation of the programme concerning eligibility, uptake of NHS Health Checks, and uptake of treatments offered through the programme. We estimate that the NHS Health Check programme prevents 390 (95% credible interval 290 to 500) premature deaths before 80 years of age and results in an additional 1,370 (95% credible interval 1,100 to 1,690) people being free of disease (ischaemic heart disease, stroke, dementia, and lung cancer) at age 80 years per million people aged 40-45 years at baseline. Over the life of the cohort (i.e., followed from 40-45 years to 100 years), the changes result in an additional 10,000 (95% credible interval 8,200 to 13,000) quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and an additional 9,000 (6,900 to 11,300) years of life. This equates to approximately 300 fewer premature deaths and 1,000 more people living free of these diseases each year in England. We estimate that the current programme is increasing QALYs by 3.8 days (95% credible interval 3.0-4.7) per head of population and increasing survival by 3.3 days (2.5-4.1) per head of population over the 60 years of follow-up. The current programme has a greater absolute impact on health for those living in the most deprived areas compared to those living in the least deprived areas (4.4 [2.7-6.5] days of additional quality-adjusted life per head of population versus 2.8 [1.7-4.0] days; 5.1 [3.4-7.1] additional days lived per head of population versus 3.3 [2.1-4.5] days). Making feasible changes to the delivery of the existing programme could result in a sizable increase in the benefit. For example, a strategy that combines extending eligibility to those with preexisting hypertension, extending the upper age of eligibility to 79 years, increasing uptake of health checks by 30%, and increasing treatment rates 2.5-fold amongst eligible patients (i.e., 'maximum potential' scenario) results in at least a 3-fold increase in benefits compared to the current programme (1,360 premature deaths versus 390; 5,100 people free of 1 of the 4 diseases versus 1,370; 37,000 additional QALYs versus 10,000; 33,000 additional years of life versus 9,000). Ensuring those who are assessed and eligible for statins receive statins is a particularly important strategy to increase benefits. Estimates of overall benefit are based on current incidence and management, and future declines in disease incidence or improvements in treatment could alter the actual benefits observed in the long run. We have focused on the cardiovascular element of the NHS Health Check programme. Some important noncardiovascular health outcomes (e.g., chronic obstructive pulmonary disease [COPD] prevention from smoking cessation and cancer prevention from weight loss) and other parts of the programme (e.g., brief interventions to reduce harmful alcohol consumption) have not been modelled. Our model indicates that the current NHS Health Check programme is contributing to improvements in health and reducing health inequalities. Feasible changes in the organisation of the programme could result in more than a 3-fold increase in health benefits.

How would mental health parity affect the marginal price of care?

PubMed Central

Zuvekas, S H; Banthin, J S; Selden, T M

2001-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To determine the impact of parity in mental health benefits on the marginal prices that consumers face for mental health treatment. DATA SOURCES/DATA COLLECTION: We used detailed information on health plan benefits for a nationally representative sample of the privately insured population under age 65 taken from the 1987 National Medical Expenditure Survey (Edwards and Berlin 1989). The survey was carefully aged and reweighted to represent 1995 population and coverage characteristics. STUDY DESIGN: We computed marginal out-of-pocket costs from the cost-sharing benefits described by policy booklets under current coverage and under parity for various mental health treatment expenditure levels using the MEDSIM health care microsimulation model developed by researchers at the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality. Descriptive analyses and two-limit Tobit regression models are used to examine how insurance generosity varies across individuals by demographic and socioeconomic characteristics. Our analyses are limited to a description of how parity would change the marginal incentives faced by consumers under their existing plan's cost-sharing arrangements for mental and physical health care. We do not attempt to simulate how parity might affect the level of benefits, including whether benefits are offered at all, or the level of managed care that affects the actual benefits that plan members receive. Rather, we focus only on the nominal benefits described in their policy booklets. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Our results show that as of 1995 parity coverage would substantially reduce the share of mental health expenditures that consumers would pay at the margin under their existing plan's cost-sharing provisions, with larger changes for outpatient care than for inpatient care. Because current mental health coverage generally becomes less generous as expenditures rise, while coverage for other medical care becomes more generous (due to stop-loss provisions), the difference in incentives between current mental health coverage and the assumed parity coverage widens as total expenditure grows. We also find that the impact of parity on marginal incentives would vary greatly across the privately insured population. CONCLUSIONS: Based on the large variation in the impact of parity on marginal incentives across the population under current plan cost-sharing arrangements, changes in the demand for mental health treatment will likely also vary across the population. PMID:11221816

Strategies for Primary Prevention of Coronary Heart Disease Based on Risk Stratification by the ACC/AHA Lipid Guidelines, ATP III Guidelines, Coronary Calcium Scoring, and C-Reactive Protein, and a Global Treat-All Strategy: A Comparative--Effectiveness Modeling Study

PubMed Central

Galper, Benjamin Z.; Wang, Y. Claire; Einstein, Andrew J.

2015-01-01

Background Several approaches have been proposed for risk-stratification and primary prevention of coronary heart disease (CHD), but their comparative and cost-effectiveness is unknown. Methods We constructed a state-transition microsimulation model to compare multiple approaches to the primary prevention of CHD in a simulated cohort of men aged 45–75 and women 55–75. Risk-stratification strategies included the 2013 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) guidelines on the treatment of blood cholesterol, the Adult Treatment Panel (ATP) III guidelines, and approaches based on coronary artery calcium (CAC) scoring and C-reactive protein (CRP). Additionally we assessed a treat-all strategy in which all individuals were prescribed either moderate-dose or high-dose statins and all males received low-dose aspirin. Outcome measures included CHD events, costs, medication-related side effects, radiation-attributable cancers, and quality-adjusted-life-years (QALYs) over a 30-year timeframe. Results Treat-all with high-dose statins dominated all other strategies for both men and women, gaining 15.7 million QALYs, preventing 7.3 million myocardial infarctions, and saving over $238 billion, compared to the status quo, far outweighing its associated adverse events including bleeding, hepatitis, myopathy, and new-onset diabetes. ACC/AHA guidelines were more cost-effective than ATP III guidelines for both men and women despite placing 8.7 million more people on statins. For women at low CHD risk, treat-all with high-dose statins was more likely to cause a statin-related adverse event than to prevent a CHD event. Conclusions Despite leading to a greater proportion of the population placed on statin therapy, the ACC/AHA guidelines are more cost-effective than ATP III. Even so, at generic prices, treating all men and women with statins and all men with low-dose aspirin appears to be more cost-effective than all risk-stratification approaches for the primary prevention of CHD. Especially for low-CHD risk women, decisions on the appropriate primary prevention strategy should be based on shared decision making between patients and healthcare providers. PMID:26422204

Averting Obesity and Type 2 Diabetes in India through Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Taxation: An Economic-Epidemiologic Modeling Study

PubMed Central

Basu, Sanjay; Vellakkal, Sukumar; Agrawal, Sutapa; Stuckler, David; Popkin, Barry; Ebrahim, Shah

2014-01-01

Background Taxing sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) has been proposed in high-income countries to reduce obesity and type 2 diabetes. We sought to estimate the potential health effects of such a fiscal strategy in the middle-income country of India, where there is heterogeneity in SSB consumption, patterns of substitution between SSBs and other beverages after tax increases, and vast differences in chronic disease risk within the population. Methods and Findings Using consumption and price variations data from a nationally representative survey of 100,855 Indian households, we first calculated how changes in SSB price alter per capita consumption of SSBs and substitution with other beverages. We then incorporated SSB sales trends, body mass index (BMI), and diabetes incidence data stratified by age, sex, income, and urban/rural residence into a validated microsimulation of caloric consumption, glycemic load, overweight/obesity prevalence, and type 2 diabetes incidence among Indian subpopulations facing a 20% SSB excise tax. The 20% SSB tax was anticipated to reduce overweight and obesity prevalence by 3.0% (95% CI 1.6%–5.9%) and type 2 diabetes incidence by 1.6% (95% CI 1.2%–1.9%) among various Indian subpopulations over the period 2014–2023, if SSB consumption continued to increase linearly in accordance with secular trends. However, acceleration in SSB consumption trends consistent with industry marketing models would be expected to increase the impact efficacy of taxation, averting 4.2% of prevalent overweight/obesity (95% CI 2.5–10.0%) and 2.5% (95% CI 1.0–2.8%) of incident type 2 diabetes from 2014–2023. Given current consumption and BMI distributions, our results suggest the largest relative effect would be expected among young rural men, refuting our a priori hypothesis that urban populations would be isolated beneficiaries of SSB taxation. Key limitations of this estimation approach include the assumption that consumer expenditure behavior from prior years, captured in price elasticities, will reflect future behavior among consumers, and potential underreporting of consumption in dietary recall data used to inform our calculations. Conclusion Sustained SSB taxation at a high tax rate could mitigate rising obesity and type 2 diabetes in India among both urban and rural subpopulations. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary PMID:24409102

Projecting Poverty at the Household Scale to Assess the Impact of Climate Change on Poor People

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hallegatte, S.; Rozenberg, J.

2015-12-01

This paper quantifies the potential impacts of climate change on poverty in 2030 and 2050, in 92 countries covering 90% of the developing world population. It accounts for the deep uncertainties that characterize future socio-economic evolutions and the lack of data regarding the condition and livelihood of poor people. It also considers many impacts of climate change, another source of uncertainty. We use a micro-simulation model based on household surveys and explore a wide range of uncertainties on future structural change, productivity growth or demographic changes. This results, for each country, in the creation of several hundred scenarios for future income growth and income distribution. We then explore the resulting space of possible futures and use scenario discovery techniques to identify the main drivers of inequalities and poverty reduction. We find that redistribution and structural change are powerful drivers of poverty and inequality reduction, except in low-income countries. In the poorest countries in Africa, reducing poverty cannot rely on redistribution but requires low population growth and productivity growth in agriculture. Once we have explored the space of possible outcomes for poverty and inequalities, we choose two representative scenarios of the best and worst cases and model the impacts of climate change in each of these two scenarios. Climate change impacts are modeled through 4 channels. First, climate change has an impact on labor productivity growth for people who work outside because of higher temperatures. Second, climate change has an impact on human capital because of more severe stunting in some places. Third, climate change has an impact on physical capital via more frequent natural disasters. Fourth, climate change has an impact on consumption because of changes in food prices. Impacts are very heterogeneous across countries and are mostly concentrated in African and South-East Asian countries. For high radiative forcing (RCP8.5), the impact of climate change on poverty is 6 times larger in the pessimistic scenario than in the optimistic scenario, illustrating how development and poverty reduction are powerful adaptation tools. Our results stress the urgency of achieving poverty eradication by 2030 in order to limit the negative impacts of climate change on the poor.

The Effect of Tobacco Control Measures during a Period of Rising Cardiovascular Disease Risk in India: A Mathematical Model of Myocardial Infarction and Stroke

PubMed Central

Basu, Sanjay; Glantz, Stanton; Bitton, Asaf; Millett, Christopher

2013-01-01

Background We simulated tobacco control and pharmacological strategies for preventing cardiovascular deaths in India, the country that is expected to experience more cardiovascular deaths than any other over the next decade. Methods and Findings A microsimulation model was developed to quantify the differential effects of various tobacco control measures and pharmacological therapies on myocardial infarction and stroke deaths stratified by age, gender, and urban/rural status for 2013 to 2022. The model incorporated population-representative data from India on multiple risk factors that affect myocardial infarction and stroke mortality, including hypertension, hyperlipidemia, diabetes, coronary heart disease, and cerebrovascular disease. We also included data from India on cigarette smoking, bidi smoking, chewing tobacco, and secondhand smoke. According to the model's results, smoke-free legislation and tobacco taxation would likely be the most effective strategy among a menu of tobacco control strategies (including, as well, brief cessation advice by health care providers, mass media campaigns, and an advertising ban) for reducing myocardial infarction and stroke deaths over the next decade, while cessation advice would be expected to be the least effective strategy at the population level. In combination, these tobacco control interventions could avert 25% of myocardial infarctions and strokes (95% CI: 17%–34%) if the effects of the interventions are additive. These effects are substantially larger than would be achieved through aspirin, antihypertensive, and statin therapy under most scenarios, because of limited treatment access and adherence; nevertheless, the impacts of tobacco control policies and pharmacological interventions appear to be markedly synergistic, averting up to one-third of deaths from myocardial infarction and stroke among 20- to 79-y-olds over the next 10 y. Pharmacological therapies could also be considerably more potent with further health system improvements. Conclusions Smoke-free laws and substantially increased tobacco taxation appear to be markedly potent population measures to avert future cardiovascular deaths in India. Despite the rise in co-morbid cardiovascular disease risk factors like hyperlipidemia and hypertension in low- and middle-income countries, tobacco control is likely to remain a highly effective strategy to reduce cardiovascular deaths. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary PMID:23874160

Using Radiation Risk Models in Cancer Screening Simulations: Important Assumptions and Effects on Outcome Projections

PubMed Central

Lee, Janie M.; McMahon, Pamela M.; Lowry, Kathryn P.; Omer, Zehra B.; Eisenberg, Jonathan D.; Pandharipande, Pari V.; Gazelle, G. Scott

2012-01-01

Purpose: To evaluate the effect of incorporating radiation risk into microsimulation (first-order Monte Carlo) models for breast and lung cancer screening to illustrate effects of including radiation risk on patient outcome projections. Materials and Methods: All data used in this study were derived from publicly available or deidentified human subject data. Institutional review board approval was not required. The challenges of incorporating radiation risk into simulation models are illustrated with two cancer screening models (Breast Cancer Model and Lung Cancer Policy Model) adapted to include radiation exposure effects from mammography and chest computed tomography (CT), respectively. The primary outcome projected by the breast model was life expectancy (LE) for BRCA1 mutation carriers. Digital mammographic screening beginning at ages 25, 30, 35, and 40 years was evaluated in the context of screenings with false-positive results and radiation exposure effects. The primary outcome of the lung model was lung cancer–specific mortality reduction due to annual screening, comparing two diagnostic CT protocols for lung nodule evaluation. The Metropolis-Hastings algorithm was used to estimate the mean values of the results with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). Results: Without radiation exposure effects, the breast model indicated that annual digital mammography starting at age 25 years maximized LE (72.03 years; 95% UI: 72.01 years, 72.05 years) and had the highest number of screenings with false-positive results (2.0 per woman). When radiation effects were included, annual digital mammography beginning at age 30 years maximized LE (71.90 years; 95% UI: 71.87 years, 71.94 years) with a lower number of screenings with false-positive results (1.4 per woman). For annual chest CT screening of 50-year-old females with no follow-up for nodules smaller than 4 mm in diameter, the lung model predicted lung cancer–specific mortality reduction of 21.50% (95% UI: 20.90%, 22.10%) without radiation risk and 17.75% (95% UI: 16.97%, 18.41%) with radiation risk. Conclusion: Because including radiation exposure risk can influence long-term projections from simulation models, it is important to include these risks when conducting modeling-based assessments of diagnostic imaging. © RSNA, 2012 Supplemental material: http://radiology.rsna.org/lookup/suppl/doi:10.1148/radiol.11110352/-/DC1 PMID:22357897

Colorectal cancer screening for average-risk adults: 2018 guideline update from the American Cancer Society.

PubMed

Wolf, Andrew M D; Fontham, Elizabeth T H; Church, Timothy R; Flowers, Christopher R; Guerra, Carmen E; LaMonte, Samuel J; Etzioni, Ruth; McKenna, Matthew T; Oeffinger, Kevin C; Shih, Ya-Chen Tina; Walter, Louise C; Andrews, Kimberly S; Brawley, Otis W; Brooks, Durado; Fedewa, Stacey A; Manassaram-Baptiste, Deana; Siegel, Rebecca L; Wender, Richard C; Smith, Robert A

2018-05-30

In the United States, colorectal cancer (CRC) is the fourth most common cancer diagnosed among adults and the second leading cause of death from cancer. For this guideline update, the American Cancer Society (ACS) used an existing systematic evidence review of the CRC screening literature and microsimulation modeling analyses, including a new evaluation of the age to begin screening by race and sex and additional modeling that incorporates changes in US CRC incidence. Screening with any one of multiple options is associated with a significant reduction in CRC incidence through the detection and removal of adenomatous polyps and other precancerous lesions and with a reduction in mortality through incidence reduction and early detection of CRC. Results from modeling analyses identified efficient and model-recommendable strategies that started screening at age 45 years. The ACS Guideline Development Group applied the Grades of Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) criteria in developing and rating the recommendations. The ACS recommends that adults aged 45 years and older with an average risk of CRC undergo regular screening with either a high-sensitivity stool-based test or a structural (visual) examination, depending on patient preference and test availability. As a part of the screening process, all positive results on noncolonoscopy screening tests should be followed up with timely colonoscopy. The recommendation to begin screening at age 45 years is a qualified recommendation. The recommendation for regular screening in adults aged 50 years and older is a strong recommendation. The ACS recommends (qualified recommendations) that: 1) average-risk adults in good health with a life expectancy of more than 10 years continue CRC screening through the age of 75 years; 2) clinicians individualize CRC screening decisions for individuals aged 76 through 85 years based on patient preferences, life expectancy, health status, and prior screening history; and 3) clinicians discourage individuals older than 85 years from continuing CRC screening. The options for CRC screening are: fecal immunochemical test annually; high-sensitivity, guaiac-based fecal occult blood test annually; multitarget stool DNA test every 3 years; colonoscopy every 10 years; computed tomography colonography every 5 years; and flexible sigmoidoscopy every 5 years. CA Cancer J Clin 2018;000:000-000. © 2018 American Cancer Society. © 2018 American Cancer Society.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of ranibizumab plus prompt or deferred laser or triamcinolone plus prompt laser for diabetic macular edema.

PubMed

Dewan, Vinay; Lambert, Dennis; Edler, Joshua; Kymes, Steven; Apte, Rajendra S

2012-08-01

Perform a cost-effectiveness analysis of the treatment of diabetic macular edema (DME) with ranibizumab plus prompt or deferred laser versus triamcinolone plus prompt laser. Data for the analysis were drawn from reports of the Diabetic Retinopathy Clinical Research Network (DRCRnet) Protocol I. Computer simulation based on Protocol I data. Analyses were conducted from the payor perspective. Simulated participants assigned characteristics reflecting those seen in Protocol I. Markov models were constructed to replicate Protocol I's 104-week outcomes using a microsimulation approach to estimation. Baseline characteristics, visual acuity (VA), treatments, and complications were based on Protocol I data. Costs were identified by literature search. One-way sensitivity analysis was performed, and the results were validated against Protocol I data. Direct cost of care for 2 years, change in VA from baseline, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) measured as cost per additional letter gained from baseline (Early Treatment of Diabetic Retinopathy Study). For sham plus laser (S+L), ranibizumab plus prompt laser (R+pL), ranibizumab plus deferred laser (R+dL), and triamcinolone plus laser (T+L), effectiveness through 104 weeks was predicted to be 3.46, 7.07, 8.63, and 2.40 letters correct, respectively. The ICER values in terms of dollars per VA letter were $393 (S+L vs. T+L), $5943 (R+pL vs. S+L), and $20 (R+dL vs. R+pL). For pseudophakics, the ICER value for comparison triamcinolone with laser versus ranibizumab with deferred laser was $14 690 per letter gained. No clinically relevant changes in model variables altered outcomes. Internal validation demonstrated good similarity to Protocol I treatment patterns. In treatment of phakic patients with DME, ranibizumab with deferred laser provided an additional 6 letters correct compared with triamcinolone with laser at an additional cost of $19 216 over 2 years. That would indicate that if the gain in VA seen at 2 years is maintained in subsequent years, then the treatment of phakic patients with DME using ranibizumab may meet accepted standards of cost-effectiveness. For pseudophakic patients, first-line treatment with triamcinolone seems to be the most cost-effective option. Copyright © 2012 American Academy of Ophthalmology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Potential impact of Affordable Care Act-related insurance expansion on trauma care reimbursement.

PubMed

Scott, John W; Neiman, Pooja U; Najjar, Peter A; Tsai, Thomas C; Scott, Kirstin W; Shrime, Mark G; Cutler, David M; Salim, Ali; Haider, Adil H

2017-05-01

Nearly one quarter of trauma patients are uninsured and hospitals recoup less than 20% of inpatient costs for their care. This study examines changes to hospital reimbursement for inpatient trauma care if the full coverage expansion provisions of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) were in effect. We abstracted nonelderly adults (ages 18-64 years) admitted for trauma from the Nationwide Inpatient Sample during 2010-the last year before most major ACA coverage expansion policies. We calculated national and facility-level reimbursements and trauma-related contribution margins using Nationwide Inpatient Sample-supplied cost-to-charge ratios and published reimbursement rates for each payer type. Using US census data, we developed a probabilistic microsimulation model to determine the proportion of pre-ACA uninsured trauma patients that would be expected to gain private insurance, Medicaid, or remain uninsured after full implementation of the ACA. We then estimated the impact of these coverage changes on national and facility-level trauma reimbursement for this population. There were 145,849 patients (representing 737,852 patients nationwide) included. National inpatient trauma costs for patients aged 18 years to 64 years totaled US $14.8 billion (95% confidence interval [CI], 12.5,17.1). Preexpansion reimbursements totaled US $13.7 billion (95% CI, 10.8-14.7), yielding a national margin of -7.9% (95% CI, -10.6 to -5.1). Postexpansion projected reimbursements totaled US $15.0 billion (95% CI, 12.7-17.3), increasing the margin by 9.3 absolute percentage points to +1.4% (95% CI, -0.3 to +3.2). Of the 263 eligible facilities, 90 (34.2%) had a positive trauma-related contribution margin in 2010, which increased to 171 (65.0%) using postexpansion projections. Those facilities with the highest proportion of uninsured and racial/ethnic minorities experienced the greatest gains. Health insurance coverage expansion for uninsured trauma patients has the potential to increase national reimbursement for inpatient trauma care by over one billion dollars and nearly double the proportion of hospitals with a positive margin for trauma care. These data suggest that insurance coverage expansion has the potential to improve trauma centers' financial viability and their ability to provide care for their communities. Economic analysis, level II.

Potential impact of ACA-related insurance expansion on trauma care reimbursement

PubMed Central

Scott, John W; Upadhyaya, Pooja; Najjar, Peter; Tsai, Thomas C; Scott, Kirstin W; Shrime, Mark G; Cutler, David M; Salim, Ali; Haider, Adil H

2017-01-01

Introduction Nearly one-quarter of trauma patients are uninsured and hospitals recoup less than 20% of inpatient costs for their care. This study examines changes to hospital reimbursement for inpatient trauma care if the full coverage expansion provisions of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) were in effect. Methods We abstracted nonelderly adults (ages 18–64y) admitted for trauma from the Nationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS) during 2010—the last year prior to most major ACA coverage expansion policies. We calculated national and facility-level reimbursements and trauma-related contribution margins using NIS-supplied cost-to-charge ratios and published reimbursement rates for each payer type. Using US census data, we developed a probabilistic microsimulation model to determine the proportion of pre-ACA uninsured trauma patients that would be expected to gain private insurance, Medicaid, or remain uninsured after full implementation of the ACA. We then estimated the impact of these coverage changes on national and facility-level trauma reimbursement for this population. Results 145,849 patients (representing 737,852 patients nationwide) were included. National inpatient trauma costs for 18–64y patients totaled $14.8 billion (95%CI:12.5,17.1). Pre-expansion reimbursements totaled $13.7 billion (10.8,14.7), yielding a national margin of −7.9% (−10.6, −5.1). Post-expansion projected reimbursements totaled $15.0 billion (12.7,17.3), increasing the margin by 9.3 absolute percentage-points to +1.4% (−0.3,+3.2). Of the 263 eligible facilities, 90 (34.2%) had a positive trauma-related contribution margin in 2010, which increased to 171 (65.0%) using post-expansion projections. Those facilities with the highest proportion of uninsured and racial/ethnic minorities experienced the greatest gains. Conclusion Health insurance coverage expansion for uninsured trauma patients has the potential to increase national reimbursement for inpatient trauma care by over one billion dollars and nearly double the proportion of hospitals with a positive margin for trauma care. These data suggest that insurance coverage expansion has the potential to improve trauma centers’ financial viability and their ability to provide care for their communities. Level of Evidence Level II: Sensible costs and alternatives; values obtained from limited sources; multi-way sensitivity analyses Study Type Policy Analysis / Economic Analysis PMID:28431415

Credit risk migration rates modeling as open systems: A micro-simulation approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Landini, S.; Uberti, M.; Casellina, S.

2018-05-01

The last financial crisis of 2008 stimulated the development of new Regulatory Criteria (commonly known as Basel III) that pushed the banking activity to become more prudential, either in the short and the long run. As well known, in 2014 the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) promulgated the new International Financial Reporting Standard 9 (IFRS 9) for financial instruments that will become effective in January 2018. Since the delayed recognition of credit losses on loans was identified as a weakness in existing accounting standards, the IASB has introduced an Expected Loss model that requires more timely recognition of credit losses. Specifically, new standards require entities to account both for expected losses from when the impairments are recognized for the first time and for full loan lifetime; moreover, a clear preference toward forward looking models is expressed. In this new framework, it is necessary a re-thinking of the widespread standard theoretical approach on which the well known prudential model is founded. The aim of this paper is then to define an original methodological approach to migration rates modeling for credit risk which is innovative respect to the standard method from the point of view of a bank as well as in a regulatory perspective. Accordingly, the proposed not-standard approach considers a portfolio as an open sample allowing for entries, migrations of stayers and exits as well. While being consistent with the empirical observations, this open-sample approach contrasts with the standard closed-sample method. In particular, this paper offers a methodology to integrate the outcomes of the standard closed-sample method within the open-sample perspective while removing some of the assumptions of the standard method. Three main conclusions can be drawn in terms of economic capital provision: (a) based on the Markovian hypothesis with a-priori absorbing state at default, the standard closed-sample method is to be abandoned for not to predict lenders' bankruptcy by construction; (b) to meet more reliable estimates along with the new regulatory standards, the sample to estimate migration rates matrices for credit risk should include either entries and exits; (c) the static eigen-decomposition standard procedure to forecast migration rates should be replaced with a stochastic process dynamics methodology while conditioning forecasts to macroeconomic scenarios.

The cost-effectiveness and budgetary impact of a dolutegravir-based regimen as first-line treatment of HIV infection in India.

PubMed

Zheng, Amy; Kumarasamy, Nagalingeswaran; Huang, Mingshu; Paltiel, A David; Mayer, Kenneth H; Rewari, Bharat B; Walensky, Rochelle P; Freedberg, Kenneth A

2018-03-01

Dolutegravir (DTG)-based antiretroviral therapy (ART) is recommended for first-line HIV treatment in the US and Europe. Efavirenz (EFV)-based regimens remain the standard of care (SOC) in India. We examined the clinical and economic impact of DTG-based first-line ART in the setting of India's recent guidelines change to treating all patients with HIV infection regardless of CD4 count. We used a microsimulation of HIV disease, the Cost-Effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications (CEPAC)-International model, to project outcomes in ART-naive patients under two strategies: (1) SOC: EFV/tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF)/lamivudine (3TC); and (2) DTG: DTG + TDF/3TC. Regimen-specific inputs, including virologic suppression at 48 weeks (SOC: 82% vs. DTG: 90%) and annual costs ($98 vs. $102), were informed by clinical trial data and other sources and varied widely in sensitivity analysis. We compared incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs), measured in $/year of life saved (YLS), to India's per capita gross domestic product ($1600 in 2015). We compared the budget impact and HIV transmission effects of the two strategies for the estimated 444,000 and 916,000 patients likely to initiate ART in India over the next 2 and 5 years. Compared to SOC, DTG improved 5-year survival from 76.7% to 83.0%, increased life expectancy from 22.0 to 24.8 years (14.0 to 15.5 years, discounted), averted 13,000 transmitted HIV infections over 5 years, increased discounted lifetime care costs from $3040 to $3240, and resulted in a lifetime ICER of $130/YLS, less than 10% of India's per capita GDP in 2015. DTG maintained an ICER below 50% of India's per capita GDP as long as the annual three-drug regimen cost was ≤$180/year. Over a 2- or 5-year horizon, total undiscounted outlays for HIV-related care were virtually the same for both strategies. A generic DTG-based regimen is likely to be cost-effective and should be recommended for initial therapy of HIV infection in India. © 2018 The Authors. Journal of the International AIDS Society published by John Wiley & sons Ltd on behalf of the International AIDS Society.

Cystic Fibrosis Colorectal Cancer Screening Consensus Recommendations.

PubMed

Hadjiliadis, Denis; Khoruts, Alexander; Zauber, Ann G; Hempstead, Sarah E; Maisonneuve, Patrick; Lowenfels, Albert B

2018-02-01

Improved therapy has substantially increased survival of persons with cystic fibrosis (CF). But the risk of colorectal cancer (CRC) in adults with CF is 5-10 times greater compared to the general population, and 25-30 times greater in CF patients after an organ transplantation. To address this risk, the CF Foundation convened a multi-stakeholder task force to develop CRC screening recommendations. The 18-member task force consisted of experts including pulmonologists, gastroenterologists, a social worker, nurse coordinator, surgeon, epidemiologist, statistician, CF adult, and a parent. The committee comprised 3 workgroups: Cancer Risk, Transplant, and Procedure and Preparation. A guidelines specialist at the CF Foundation conducted an evidence synthesis February-March 2016 based on PubMed literature searches. Task force members conducted additional independent searches. A total of 1159 articles were retrieved. After initial screening, the committee read 198 articles in full and analyzed 123 articles to develop recommendation statements. An independent decision analysis evaluating the benefits of screening relative to harms and resources required was conducted by the Department of Public Health at Erasmus Medical Center, Netherlands using the Microsimulation Screening Analysis model from the Cancer Innervation and Surveillance Modeling Network. The task force included recommendation statements in the final guideline only if they reached an 80% acceptance threshold. The task force makes 10 CRC screening recommendations that emphasize shared, individualized decision-making and familiarity with CF-specific gastrointestinal challenges. We recommend colonoscopy as the preferred screening method, initiation of screening at age 40 years, 5-year re-screening and 3-year surveillance intervals (unless shorter interval is indicated by individual findings), and a CF-specific intensive bowel preparation. Organ transplant recipients with CF should initiate CRC screening at age 30 years within 2 years of the transplantation because of the additional risk for colon cancer associated with immunosuppression. These recommendations aim to help CF adults, families, primary care physicians, gastroenterologists, and CF and transplantation centers address the issue of CRC screening. They differ from guidelines developed for the general population with respect to the recommended age of screening initiation, screening method, preparation, and the interval for repeat screening and surveillance. Copyright © 2018 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The impacts of climate change on poverty in 2030, and the potential from rapid, inclusive and climate-informed development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rozenberg, J.; Hallegatte, S.

2016-12-01

There is a consensus on the fact that poor people are more vulnerable to climate change than the rest of the population, but, until recently, few quantified estimates had been proposed and few frameworks existed to design policies for addressing the issue. In this paper, we analyze the impacts of climate change on poverty using micro-simulation approaches. We start from household surveys that describe the current distribution of income and occupations, we project these households into the future and we look at the impacts of climate change on people's income. To project households into the future, we explore a large range of assumptions on future demographic changes (including on education), technological changes, and socio-economic trends (including redistribution policies). This approach allows us to identify the main combination of factors that lead to fast poverty reduction, and the ones that lead to high climate change impacts on the poor. Identifying these factors is critical for designing efficient policies to protect the poorest from climate change impacts and making economic growth more inclusive. Conclusions are twofold. First, by 2030 climate change can have a large impact on poverty, with between 3 and 122 million more people in poverty, but climate change remains a secondary driver of poverty trends within this time horizon. Climate change impacts do not only affect the poorest: in 2030, the bottom 40 percent lose more than 4 percent of income in many countries. The regional hotspots are Sub-Saharan Africa and - to a lesser extent - India and the rest of South Asia. The most important channel through which climate change increases poverty is through agricultural income and food prices. Second, by 2030 and in the absence of surprises on climate impacts, inclusive climate-informed development can prevent most of (but not all) the impacts on poverty. In a scenario with rapid, inclusive and climate-proof development, climate change impact on poverty is between 3 and 16 million, vs. between 35 and 122 million if development is delayed and less inclusive. Development and inclusive policies appears to reduce the impact of climate change on poverty much more than it reduces aggregated losses expressed in percentage of GDP.

Personalizing mammography by breast density and other risk factors for breast cancer: analysis of health benefits and cost-effectiveness.

PubMed

Schousboe, John T; Kerlikowske, Karla; Loh, Andrew; Cummings, Steven R

2011-07-05

Current guidelines recommend mammography every 1 or 2 years starting at age 40 or 50 years, regardless of individual risk for breast cancer. To estimate the cost-effectiveness of mammography by age, breast density, history of breast biopsy, family history of breast cancer, and screening interval. Markov microsimulation model. Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program, Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium, and the medical literature. U.S. women aged 40 to 49, 50 to 59, 60 to 69, and 70 to 79 years with initial mammography at age 40 years and breast density of Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System (BI-RADS) categories 1 to 4. Lifetime. National health payer. Mammography annually, biennially, or every 3 to 4 years or no mammography. Costs per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained and number of women screened over 10 years to prevent 1 death from breast cancer. Biennial mammography cost less than $100,000 per QALY gained for women aged 40 to 79 years with BI-RADS category 3 or 4 breast density or aged 50 to 69 years with category 2 density; women aged 60 to 79 years with category 1 density and either a family history of breast cancer or a previous breast biopsy; and all women aged 40 to 79 years with both a family history of breast cancer and a previous breast biopsy, regardless of breast density. Biennial mammography cost less than $50,000 per QALY gained for women aged 40 to 49 years with category 3 or 4 breast density and either a previous breast biopsy or a family history of breast cancer. Annual mammography was not cost-effective for any group, regardless of age or breast density. Mammography is expensive if the disutility of false-positive mammography results and the costs of detecting nonprogressive and nonlethal invasive cancer are considered. Results are not applicable to carriers of BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutations. Mammography screening should be personalized on the basis of a woman's age, breast density, history of breast biopsy, family history of breast cancer, and beliefs about the potential benefit and harms of screening. Eli Lilly, Da Costa Family Foundation for Research in Breast Cancer Prevention of the California Pacific Medical Center, and Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium.

Minimal Residual Disease Evaluation in Childhood Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia: An Economic Analysis

PubMed Central

Gajic-Veljanoski, O.; Pham, B.; Pechlivanoglou, P.; Krahn, M.; Higgins, Caroline; Bielecki, Joanna

2016-01-01

Background Minimal residual disease (MRD) testing by higher performance techniques such as flow cytometry and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) can be used to detect the proportion of remaining leukemic cells in bone marrow or peripheral blood during and after the first phases of chemotherapy in children with acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL). The results of MRD testing are used to reclassify these patients and guide changes in treatment according to their future risk of relapse. We conducted a systematic review of the economic literature, cost-effectiveness analysis, and budget-impact analysis to ascertain the cost-effectiveness and economic impact of MRD testing by flow cytometry for management of childhood precursor B-cell ALL in Ontario. Methods A systematic literature search (1998–2014) identified studies that examined the incremental cost-effectiveness of MRD testing by either flow cytometry or PCR. We developed a lifetime state-transition (Markov) microsimulation model to quantify the cost-effectiveness of MRD testing followed by risk-directed therapy to no MRD testing and to estimate its marginal effect on health outcomes and on costs. Model input parameters were based on the literature, expert opinion, and data from the Pediatric Oncology Group of Ontario Networked Information System. Using predictions from our Markov model, we estimated the 1-year cost burden of MRD testing versus no testing and forecasted its economic impact over 3 and 5 years. Results In a base-case cost-effectiveness analysis, compared with no testing, MRD testing by flow cytometry at the end of induction and consolidation was associated with an increased discounted survival of 0.0958 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and increased discounted costs of $4,180, yielding an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $43,613/QALY gained. After accounting for parameter uncertainty, incremental cost-effectiveness of MRD testing was associated with an ICER of $50,249/QALY gained. In the budget-impact analysis, the 1-year cost expenditure for MRD testing by flow cytometry in newly diagnosed patients with precursor B-cell ALL was estimated at $340,760. We forecasted that the province would have to pay approximately $1.3 million over 3 years and $2.4 million over 5 years for MRD testing by flow cytometry in this population. Conclusions Compared with no testing, MRD testing by flow cytometry in newly diagnosed patients with precursor B-cell ALL represents good value for money at commonly used willingness-to-pay thresholds of $50,000/QALY and $100,000/QALY. PMID:27099644

Cost-Utility of a Prognostic Test Guiding Adjuvant Chemotherapy Decisions in Early-Stage Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer.

PubMed

Stenehjem, David D; Bellows, Brandon K; Yager, Kraig M; Jones, Joshua; Kaldate, Rajesh; Siebert, Uwe; Brixner, Diana I

2016-02-01

A prognostic test was developed to guide adjuvant chemotherapy (ACT) decisions in early-stage non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) adenocarcinomas. The objective of this study was to compare the cost-utility of the prognostic test to the current standard of care (SoC) in patients with early-stage NSCLC. Lifetime costs (2014 U.S. dollars) and effectiveness (quality-adjusted life-years [QALYs]) of ACT treatment decisions were examined using a Markov microsimulation model from a U.S. third-party payer perspective. Cancer stage distribution and probability of receiving ACT with the SoC were based on data from an academic cancer center. The probability of receiving ACT with the prognostic test was estimated from a physician survey. Risk classification was based on the 5-year predicted NSCLC-related mortality. Treatment benefit with ACT was based on the prognostic score. Discounting at a 3% annual rate was applied to costs and QALYs. Deterministic one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses examined parameter uncertainty. Lifetime costs and effectiveness were $137,403 and 5.45 QALYs with the prognostic test and $127,359 and 5.17 QALYs with the SoC. The resulting incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for the prognostic test versus the SoC was $35,867/QALY gained. One-way sensitivity analyses indicated the model was most sensitive to the utility of patients without recurrence after ACT and the ACT treatment benefit. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis indicated the prognostic test was cost-effective in 65.5% of simulations at a willingness to pay of $50,000/QALY. The study suggests using a prognostic test to guide ACT decisions in early-stage NSCLC is potentially cost-effective compared with using the SoC based on globally accepted willingness-to-pay thresholds. Providing prognostic information to decision makers may help some patients with high-risk early stage non-small cell lung cancer receive appropriate adjuvant chemotherapy while avoiding the associated toxicities and costs in patients with low-risk disease. This study used an economic model to assess the effectiveness and costs associated with using a prognostic test to guide adjuvant chemotherapy decisions compared with the current standard of care in patients with non-small cell lung cancer. When compared with current standard care, the prognostic test was potentially cost effective at commonly accepted thresholds in the U.S. This study can be used to help inform decision makers who are considering using prognostic tests. ©AlphaMed Press.

Cost-utility analysis of the fixed-dose combination of dolutegravir/abacavir/lamivudine as initial treatment of HIV+ patients in Spain.

PubMed

Moreno Guillen, Santiago; Losa García, Juan Emilio; Berenguer Berenguer, Juan; Martínez Sesmero, José Manuel; Cenoz Gomis, Santiago; Graefenhain, Ruth; Lopez Sanchez-Cambronero, David; Parrondo Garcia, Francisco Javier

2017-09-01

Fixed-dose combinations of antiretroviral drugs have meant an important step forward in simplifying treatment and improving compliance and has led to an increased effectiveness of therapy, a viral load decrease and improving the quality of life of patients. The single-table formulation of dolutegravir with abacavir and lamivudine (DTG/ABC/3TC) is a highly efficacious and well-tolerated once-daily regimen for HIV-infected patients. The objective of the study was to assess the incremental cost-utility ratio of the fixed-dose combination of (DTG/ABC/3TC) versus the combinations emtricitabine/tenofovir/efavirenz (FTC/TDF/EFV), and darunavir/r (DRV/r) or raltegravir (RAL) with emtricitabine/tenofovir (FTC/TDF) or abacavir/lamivudine (ABC/3TC) as initial antiretroviral therapy in patients infected with HIV-1 from the perspective of the Spanish National Health System. The ARAMIS model, which uses a microsimulation approach to simulate the individual changes in each patient from the start of treatment to death through a Markov chain of descriptive health states of the disease, was adapted to Spain. The alternatives used for comparison were the fixed-dose combination of emtricitabine/tenofovir/efavirenz (FTC/TDF/EFV), and the fixed- dose combinations of emtricitabine/tenofovir (FTC/TDF) or abacavir/lamivudine (ABC/3TC) with darunavir/r (DRV/r) or raltegravir (RAL). The probability of achieving virological suppression by the treatments included in the model was obtained from clinical trials SINGLE, SPRING-2 and FLAMINGO and the costs were expressed in € (2015). The model use the perspective of the Spanish National Health System, with a lifetime horizon and a discount rate of 3% was applied to cost and effectiveness. Treatment initiation with DTG/ABC/3TC was dominant when it was compared with treatment initiation with all the comparators: vs. FTC/TDF/EFV (-67 210.71€/QALY), vs. DRV/r + FTC/TDF or ABC/3TC (-1 787 341.44€/QALY), and vs. RAL + FTC/TDF or ABC/3TC (-1 005 117.13€/QALY). All the sensitivity analyses performed showed the consistency of these findings. With the premises considered, treatment initiation with DTG/ABC/3TC STR appears to be the most cost-effective option in ARTnaïve HIV infected patients from the Spanish Health System perspective. Copyright AULA MEDICA EDICIONES 2014. Published by AULA MEDICA. All rights reserved.

Minimal Residual Disease Evaluation in Childhood Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia: An Economic Analysis.

PubMed

2016-01-01

Minimal residual disease (MRD) testing by higher performance techniques such as flow cytometry and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) can be used to detect the proportion of remaining leukemic cells in bone marrow or peripheral blood during and after the first phases of chemotherapy in children with acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL). The results of MRD testing are used to reclassify these patients and guide changes in treatment according to their future risk of relapse. We conducted a systematic review of the economic literature, cost-effectiveness analysis, and budget-impact analysis to ascertain the cost-effectiveness and economic impact of MRD testing by flow cytometry for management of childhood precursor B-cell ALL in Ontario. A systematic literature search (1998-2014) identified studies that examined the incremental cost-effectiveness of MRD testing by either flow cytometry or PCR. We developed a lifetime state-transition (Markov) microsimulation model to quantify the cost-effectiveness of MRD testing followed by risk-directed therapy to no MRD testing and to estimate its marginal effect on health outcomes and on costs. Model input parameters were based on the literature, expert opinion, and data from the Pediatric Oncology Group of Ontario Networked Information System. Using predictions from our Markov model, we estimated the 1-year cost burden of MRD testing versus no testing and forecasted its economic impact over 3 and 5 years. In a base-case cost-effectiveness analysis, compared with no testing, MRD testing by flow cytometry at the end of induction and consolidation was associated with an increased discounted survival of 0.0958 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and increased discounted costs of $4,180, yielding an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $43,613/QALY gained. After accounting for parameter uncertainty, incremental cost-effectiveness of MRD testing was associated with an ICER of $50,249/QALY gained. In the budget-impact analysis, the 1-year cost expenditure for MRD testing by flow cytometry in newly diagnosed patients with precursor B-cell ALL was estimated at $340,760. We forecasted that the province would have to pay approximately $1.3 million over 3 years and $2.4 million over 5 years for MRD testing by flow cytometry in this population. Compared with no testing, MRD testing by flow cytometry in newly diagnosed patients with precursor B-cell ALL represents good value for money at commonly used willingness-to-pay thresholds of $50,000/QALY and $100,000/QALY.

Traditional growing rod versus magnetically controlled growing rod for treatment of early onset scoliosis: Cost analysis from implantation till skeletal maturity.

PubMed

Wong, Carlos King Ho; Cheung, Jason Pui Yin; Cheung, Prudence Wing Hang; Lam, Cindy Lo Kuen; Cheung, Kenneth Man Chee

2017-01-01

To compare the yearly cost involved per patient in the use of magnetically controlled growing rod (MCGR) and traditional growing rods (TGRs) in the treatment of early onset scoliosis (EOS) and to assess the overall cost burden of MCGR with reference to patient and health-care infrastructure. For a hypothetical case of a 5-year-old girl with a diagnosis of EOS, a decision-tree model using TreeAge Software was developed to simulate annual health state transitions and compare the 8-year accumulative direct, indirect, and total cost among the four groups: (1) dual MCGRs with exchange every 2 years, (2) dual MCGRs with exchange every 3 years, (3) TGR with surgical distraction every year, and (4) TGR with surgical distraction every 6 months. Base-case values and ranges of clinical parameters reflecting complication rate after each type of surgical distraction were determined from a review of literature and expert opinion. Government gazette and expert opinion provided cost estimation of growing rods, surgeries, surgical complications, and routine follow-up. Microsimulation of 1000 individuals was conducted to test the variation in total direct costs (in 2016 Hong Kong dollars (HKD)) between individuals, and estimated the standard deviations of total direct costs for each group. Over the projected treatment period, indirect costs incurred by patients and family were higher for the MCGR as compared to the TGR. However, the total costs incurred by MCGR groups (group 1: HKD164k; group 2: HKD138k) were lower than those incurred by TGR groups (group 3: HKD191k; group 4: HKD290k). Although the accumulative costs of three groups (TGR with distraction every year and MCGR replacing every 2 and 3 years) were approaching each other in the first 2 years after initial implantation, at year 3 the accumulative cost of MCGR exchange every 2 years was HKD36k more than the yearly TGR surgery due to the cost of implant exchange. The cost incurred by both the MCGR groups was less than that incurred by the TGR groups from year 4 to skeletal maturity. The use of dual MCGRs, regardless of its 2- or 3-year exchange, was only cost saving and less expensive than the dual TGRs for EOS treatment from the fourth year of continuous treatment. Despite higher patient-related costs during MCGR treatment, it is important to consider the reduced risks and mental burden suffered by these children during repeat surgeries. With improved knowledge of the costs associated with long-term MCGR use, better constructed cost-effectiveness studies can be performed in the future.

Lung Cancer Mortality Associated With Smoking and Smoking Cessation Among People Living With HIV in the United States.

PubMed

Reddy, Krishna P; Kong, Chung Yin; Hyle, Emily P; Baggett, Travis P; Huang, Mingshu; Parker, Robert A; Paltiel, A David; Losina, Elena; Weinstein, Milton C; Freedberg, Kenneth A; Walensky, Rochelle P

2017-11-01

Lung cancer has become a leading cause of death among people living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) (PLWH). Over 40% of PLWH in the United States smoke cigarettes; HIV independently increases the risk of lung cancer. To project cumulative lung cancer mortality by smoking exposure among PLWH in care. Using a validated microsimulation model of HIV, we applied standard demographic data and recent HIV/AIDS epidemiology statistics with specific details on smoking exposure, combining smoking status (current, former, or never) and intensity (heavy, moderate, or light). We stratified reported mortality rates attributable to lung cancer and other non-AIDS-related causes by smoking exposure and accounted for an HIV-conferred independent risk of lung cancer. Lung cancer mortality risk ratios (vs never smokers) for male and female current moderate smokers were 23.6 and 24.2, respectively, and for those who quit smoking at age 40 years were 4.3 and 4.5. In sensitivity analyses, we accounted for nonadherence to antiretroviral therapy (ART) and for a range of HIV-conferred risks of death from lung cancer and from other non-AIDS-related diseases (eg, cardiovascular disease). Cumulative lung cancer mortality by age 80 years (stratified by sex, age at entry to HIV care, and smoking exposure); total expected lung cancer deaths, accounting for nonadherence to ART. Among 40-year-old men with HIV, estimated cumulative lung cancer mortality for heavy, moderate, and light smokers who continued to smoke was 28.9%, 23.0%, and 18.8%, respectively; for those who quit smoking at age 40 years, it was 7.9%, 6.1%, and 4.3%; and for never smokers, it was 1.6%. Among women, the corresponding mortality for current smokers was 27.8%, 20.9%, and 16.6%; for former smokers, it was 7.5%, 5.2%, and 3.7%; and for never smokers, it was 1.2%. ART-adherent individuals who continued to smoke were 6 to 13 times more likely to die from lung cancer than from traditional AIDS-related causes, depending on sex and smoking intensity. Due to greater AIDS-related mortality risks, individuals with incomplete ART adherence had higher overall mortality but lower lung cancer mortality. Applying model projections to the approximately 644 200 PLWH aged 20 to 64 in care in the United States, 59 900 (9.3%) are expected to die from lung cancer if smoking habits do not change. Those PLWH who adhere to ART but smoke are substantially more likely to die from lung cancer than from AIDS-related causes.

Resources Required for Cervical Cancer Prevention in Low- and Middle-Income Countries.

PubMed

Campos, Nicole G; Sharma, Monisha; Clark, Andrew; Kim, Jane J; Resch, Stephen C

2016-01-01

Cervical cancer is the fourth leading cause of cancer death in women, with 85% of cases and deaths occurring in developing countries. While organized screening programs have reduced cervical cancer incidence in high-income countries through detection and treatment of precancerous lesions, the implementation of organized screening has not been effective in low-resource settings due to lack of infrastructure and limited budgets. Our objective was to estimate the cost of comprehensive primary and secondary cervical cancer prevention in low- and middle-income countries. We performed a modeling analysis to estimate 1) for girls aged 10 years, the cost of 2-dose human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination; and 2) for women aged 30 to 49 years, the cost of cervical cancer screening (with visual inspection with acetic acid (VIA), HPV testing, or cytology) and preventive treatment in 102 low- and middle-income countries from 2015 to 2024. We used an Excel-based costing and service utilization model to estimate financial costs (2013 US$) based on prevalence of HPV, prevalence of precancerous lesions, and screening test performance. Where epidemiologic data were unavailable, we extrapolated from settings with data using an individual-based microsimulation model of cervical carcinogenesis (calibrated to 20 settings) and multivariate regression. Total HPV vaccination costs ranged from US$8.6 billion to US$24.2 billion for all scenarios considered (immediate, 5-year, or 10-year roll-out; price per dose US$4.55-US$70 by country income level). The total cost of screening and preventive treatment ranged from US$5.1 billion (10-year roll-out, screening once at age 35 years) to US$42.3 billion (immediate roll-out, high intensity screening). Limitations of this analysis include the assumption of standardized protocols by country income level that did not account for the potential presence of multiple screening modalities or management strategies within a country, and extrapolation of cost and epidemiologic data to settings where data were limited. The estimated cost of comprehensive cervical cancer prevention with 2-dose HPV vaccination of 10-year-old girls and screening of women aged 30 to 49 years ranges from US$13.7 billion to US$66.5 billion, depending on speed of roll-out, vaccine price per dose, and screening test and frequency. Findings demonstrate the substantial impact of vaccine price in middle-income countries that are not eligible for assistance from Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance. Replacing routine cytology with HPV-based screening may reduce total costs. Data on the health impact and relative cost-effectiveness of strategies are needed to determine the best value for public health dollars.

Future Supply of Pediatric Surgeons: Analytical Study of the Current and Projected Supply of Pediatric Surgeons in the Context of a Rapidly Changing Process for Specialty and Subspecialty Training.

PubMed

Ricketts, Thomas C; Adamson, William T; Fraher, Erin P; Knapton, Andy; Geiger, James D; Abdullah, Fizan; Klein, Michael D

2017-03-01

To describe the future supply and demand for pediatric surgeons using a physician supply model to determine what the future supply of pediatric surgeons will be over the next decade and a half and to compare that projected supply with potential indicators of demand and the growth of other subspecialties. Anticipating the supply of physicians and surgeons in the future has met with varying levels of success. However, there remains a need to anticipate supply given the rapid growth of specialty and subspecialty fellowships. This analysis is intended to support decision making on the size of future fellowships in pediatric surgery. The model used in the study is an adaptation of the FutureDocs physician supply and need tool developed to anticipate future supply and need for all physician specialties. Data from national inventories of physicians by specialty, age, sex, activity, and location are combined with data from residency and fellowship programs and accrediting bodies in an agent-based or microsimulation projection model that considers movement into and among specialties. Exits from practice and the geographic distribution of physician and the patient population are also included in the model. Three scenarios for the annual entry into pediatric surgery fellowships (28, 34, and 56) are modeled and their effects on supply through 2030 are presented. The FutureDocs model predicts a very rapid growth of the supply of surgeons who treat pediatric patients-including general pediatric surgeon and focused subspecialties. The supply of all pediatric surgeons will grow relatively rapidly through 2030 under current conditions. That growth is much faster than the rate of growth of the pediatric population. The volume of complex surgical cases will likely match this population growth rate meaning there will be many more surgeons trained for those procedures. The current entry rate into pediatric surgery fellowships (34 per year) will result in a slowing of growth after 2025, a rate of 56 will generate a continued growth through 2030 with a likely plateau after 2035. The rate of entry into pediatric surgery will continue to exceed population growth through 2030 under two likely scenarios. The very rapid anticipated growth in focused pediatric subspecialties will likely prove challenging to surgeons wishing to maintain their skills with complex cases as a larger and more diverse group of surgeons will also seek to care for many of the conditions and patients which the general pediatric surgeons and general surgeons now see. This means controlling the numbers of pediatric surgery fellowships in a way that recognizes problems with distribution, the volume of cases available to maintain proficiency, and the dynamics of retirement and shifts into other specialty practice.

Resources Required for Cervical Cancer Prevention in Low- and Middle-Income Countries

PubMed Central

Campos, Nicole G.; Sharma, Monisha; Clark, Andrew; Kim, Jane J.; Resch, Stephen C.

2016-01-01

Background Cervical cancer is the fourth leading cause of cancer death in women, with 85% of cases and deaths occurring in developing countries. While organized screening programs have reduced cervical cancer incidence in high-income countries through detection and treatment of precancerous lesions, the implementation of organized screening has not been effective in low-resource settings due to lack of infrastructure and limited budgets. Our objective was to estimate the cost of comprehensive primary and secondary cervical cancer prevention in low- and middle-income countries. Methods and Findings We performed a modeling analysis to estimate 1) for girls aged 10 years, the cost of 2-dose human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination; and 2) for women aged 30 to 49 years, the cost of cervical cancer screening (with visual inspection with acetic acid (VIA), HPV testing, or cytology) and preventive treatment in 102 low- and middle-income countries from 2015 to 2024. We used an Excel-based costing and service utilization model to estimate financial costs (2013 US$) based on prevalence of HPV, prevalence of precancerous lesions, and screening test performance. Where epidemiologic data were unavailable, we extrapolated from settings with data using an individual-based microsimulation model of cervical carcinogenesis (calibrated to 20 settings) and multivariate regression. Total HPV vaccination costs ranged from US$8.6 billion to US$24.2 billion for all scenarios considered (immediate, 5-year, or 10-year roll-out; price per dose US$4.55-US$70 by country income level). The total cost of screening and preventive treatment ranged from US$5.1 billion (10-year roll-out, screening once at age 35 years) to US$42.3 billion (immediate roll-out, high intensity screening). Limitations of this analysis include the assumption of standardized protocols by country income level that did not account for the potential presence of multiple screening modalities or management strategies within a country, and extrapolation of cost and epidemiologic data to settings where data were limited. Conclusions The estimated cost of comprehensive cervical cancer prevention with 2-dose HPV vaccination of 10-year-old girls and screening of women aged 30 to 49 years ranges from US$13.7 billion to US$66.5 billion, depending on speed of roll-out, vaccine price per dose, and screening test and frequency. Findings demonstrate the substantial impact of vaccine price in middle-income countries that are not eligible for assistance from Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance. Replacing routine cytology with HPV-based screening may reduce total costs. Data on the health impact and relative cost-effectiveness of strategies are needed to determine the best value for public health dollars. PMID:27711124

Measuring health related quality of life (HRQoL) in community and facility-based care settings with the interRAI assessment instruments: development of a crosswalk to HUI3.

PubMed

Hirdes, John P; Bernier, Julie; Garner, Rochelle; Finès, Philippe; Jantzi, Micaela

2018-05-01

Health-related quality of life (HRQoL) measures are of interest because they can be used to describe health of populations and represent a broader health outcome for population health analyses than mortality rates or life expectancy. The most widely used measure of HRQoL for deriving estimates of health-adjusted life expectancy is the Health Utilities Index Mark 3 (HUI3). The HUI3 is available in most national surveys administered by Statistics Canada, and has been used as part of a microsimulation model to examine the impact of neurological conditions over the life course. Persons receiving home care and nursing home services are often not well-represented in these surveys; however, interRAI assessment instruments are now used as part of normal clinical practice in these settings for nine Canadian provinces/territories. Building on previous research that developed a HUI2 crosswalk for the interRAI assessments, the present study examined a new interRAI HRQoL index crosswalked to the HUI3. interRAI and survey data were used to examine the distributional properties of global and domain-specific interRAI HRQoL and HUI3 index scores, respectively. Three populations were considered: well-elderly persons not receiving home care, home care clients and nursing home residents. The mean HUI3 and interRAI HRQoL index global scores declined from independent healthy older persons to home care clients, followed by nursing home residents. For the home care and nursing home populations, the interRAI HRQoL global estimates tended to be lower than HUI3 global scores obtained from survey respondents. While there were some statistically significant age, sex and diagnostic group differences in global scores and within attributes, the most notable differences were between populations from different care settings. The present study provides strong evidence for the validity of the interRAI HRQoL based on comparisons of distributional properties with those obtained with survey data based on the HUI3. The results demonstrate the importance of admission criteria for home care and nursing home settings, where function plays a more important role than demographic or diagnostic criteria. The interRAI HRQoL has a distinct advantage because it is gathered as part of normal clinical practice in care settings where interRAI instruments are mandatory and are used to assess all eligible persons in those sectors. In particular, those with severe cognitive and functional impairments (who tend to be under-represented in survey data) will be evaluated using the interRAI tools. Future research should build on this work by providing direct, person-level comparisons of interRAI HRQoL index and HUI3 scores, as well as longitudinal analyses to examine responsiveness to change.

Robotic Versus Open Renal Transplantation in Obese Patients: Protocol for a Cost-Benefit Markov Model Analysis

PubMed Central

Puttarajappa, Chethan; Wijkstrom, Martin; Ganoza, Armando; Lopez, Roberto; Tevar, Amit

2018-01-01

Background Recent studies have reported a significant decrease in wound problems and hospital stay in obese patients undergoing renal transplantation by robotic-assisted minimally invasive techniques with no difference in graft function. Objective Due to the lack of cost-benefit studies on the use of robotic-assisted renal transplantation versus open surgical procedure, the primary aim of our study is to develop a Markov model to analyze the cost-benefit of robotic surgery versus open traditional surgery in obese patients in need of a renal transplant. Methods Electronic searches will be conducted to identify studies comparing open renal transplantation versus robotic-assisted renal transplantation. Costs associated with the two surgical techniques will incorporate the expenses of the resources used for the operations. A decision analysis model will be developed to simulate a randomized controlled trial comparing three interventional arms: (1) continuation of renal replacement therapy for patients who are considered non-suitable candidates for renal transplantation due to obesity, (2) transplant recipients undergoing open transplant surgery, and (3) transplant patients undergoing robotic-assisted renal transplantation. TreeAge Pro 2017 R1 TreeAge Software, Williamstown, MA, USA) will be used to create a Markov model and microsimulation will be used to compare costs and benefits for the two competing surgical interventions. Results The model will simulate a randomized controlled trial of adult obese patients affected by end-stage renal disease undergoing renal transplantation. The absorbing state of the model will be patients' death from any cause. By choosing death as the absorbing state, we will be able simulate the population of renal transplant recipients from the day of their randomization to transplant surgery or continuation on renal replacement therapy to their death and perform sensitivity analysis around patients' age at the time of randomization to determine if age is a critical variable for cost-benefit analysis or cost-effectiveness analysis comparing renal replacement therapy, robotic-assisted surgery or open renal transplant surgery. After running the model, one of the three competing strategies will result as the most cost-beneficial or cost-effective under common circumstances. To assess the robustness of the results of the model, a multivariable probabilistic sensitivity analysis will be performed by modifying the mean values and confidence intervals of key parameters with the main intent of assessing if the winning strategy is sensitive to rigorous and plausible variations of those values. Conclusions After running the model, one of the three competing strategies will result as the most cost-beneficial or cost-effective under common circumstances. To assess the robustness of the results of the model, a multivariable probabilistic sensitivity analysis will be performed by modifying the mean values and confidence intervals of key parameters with the main intent of assessing if the winning strategy is sensitive to rigorous and plausible variations of those values. PMID:29519780

Cost effectiveness of fecal DNA screening for colorectal cancer: a systematic review and quality appraisal of the literature.

PubMed

Skally, Mairead; Hanly, Paul; Sharp, Linda

2013-06-01

Fecal DNA (fDNA) testing is a noninvasive potential alternative to current colorectal cancer screening tests. We conducted a systematic review and quality assessment of studies of cost-effectiveness of fDNA as a colorectal cancer screening tool (compared with no screening and other screening modalities), and identified key variables that impinged on cost-effectiveness. We searched MEDLINE, Embase, and the Centre for Reviews and Dissemination for cost-effectiveness studies of fDNA-based screening, published in English by September 2011. Studies that undertook an economic evaluation of fDNA, using either a cost-effectiveness or cost-utility analysis, compared with other relevant screening modalities and/or no screening were included. Additional inclusion criteria related to the presentation of data pertaining to model variables including time horizon, costs, fDNA performance characteristics, screening uptake, and comparators. A total of 369 articles were initially identified for review. After removing duplicates and applying inclusion and exclusion criteria, seven articles were included in the final review. Data was abstracted on key descriptor variables including screening scenarios, time horizon, costs, test performance characteristics, screening uptake, comparators, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios. Quality assessment was undertaken using a standard checklist for economic evaluations. Studies cited by cost-effectiveness articles as the source of data on fDNA test performance characteristics were also reviewed. Seven cost-effectiveness studies were included, from the USA (4), Canada (1), Israel (1), and Taiwan (1). Markov models (5), a partially observable Markov decision process model (1) and MISCAN and SimCRC (1) microsimulation models were used. All studies took a third-party payer perspective and one included, in addition, a societal perspective. Comparator screening tests, screening intervals, and specific fDNA tests varied between studies. fDNA sensitivity and specificity parameters were derived from 12 research studies and one meta-analysis. Outcomes assessed were life-years gained and quality-adjusted life-years gained. fDNA was cost-effective when compared with no screening in six studies. Compared with other screening modalities, fDNA was not considered cost-effective in any of the base-case analyses: in five studies it was dominated by all alternatives considered. Sensitivity analyses identified cost, compliance, and test parameters as key influential parameters. In general, poor presentation of "study design" and "data collection" details lowered the quality of included articles. Although the literature searches were designed for high sensitivity, the possibility cannot be excluded that some eligible studies may have been missed. Reports (such as Health Technology Assessments produced by government agencies) and other forms of grey literature were excluded because they are difficult to identify systematically and/or may not report methods and results in sufficient detail for assessment. On the basis of the available (albeit limited) evidence, while fDNA is cost-effective when compared with no screening, it is currently dominated by most of the other available screening options. Cost and test performance appear to be the main influences on cost-effectiveness.

Urban Cultural Heritage Endangerment: Degradation of historico-cultural landscapes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vaz, Eric; Cabral, Pedro; Caetano, Mário; Painho, Marco; Nijkamp, Peter

2010-05-01

Sustainable development has become one of the great debates of policy-making of the XXI century. The world, is facing unprecedented change following the anthropocentrism of socio-economic growth. However, the commitment of man to ‘transmit to future generations at least the same as had' (ref) seems to be a narrowing, given extensive urban growth, population increase and climate change. However, over the last twenty years, the usage of spatial information systems have brought a positive contribution for better acknowledging the problem of environmental change, and bringing more constructive approaches to planning. Prompted by much research interest in Europe, a broad specter of biodiversity loss models, pollution and environmental degradation algorithms as well as climate change models, have become important tools under the European umbrella. Recognizing the essence of sustainable development, historico-cultural and archaeological regions have a remarkable role in the transformation of landscapes and maintenance of cultural and regional identity. Furthermore, the socio-economic, political-geographic and cultural-scientific history of the dynamics of places and localities on our earth is reflected in their historico-cultural heritage. This patrimony comprises cultural assets, such as old churches, palaces, museums, urban parks, historical architecture of cities, or landscapes of historical interest. Historico-cultural heritage also includes archaeological sites, which sometimes not only have a local value but may have a worldwide significance (e.g. Pompeii). However, massive urban growth is affecting directly the existing historico-cultural resources throughout the European region, and little attention is given to this juxtaposing reality of peri-urban growth and cultural / archaeological heritage preservation. Also, the settling patterns within historico-cultural local clusters follow a similar pattern as current growth tendencies, given the physical conditions of land-use. This brings forth a dichotomy between areas to cope with population increase (and therefore highly probable of urbanization) and regions of valuable historico-cultural and archaeological legacy. To bridge this dichotomy, this paper attempts to provide a methodology for measuring cultural heritage endangerment brought by urban pressure. By using spatial modeling to prompt urban growth combined with archaeological predictive models, composing a secondary layer, a propensity map for areas with extremely high cultural value and where urban growth should be dealt with especial care become evident. Fundamentally, the joined model of Cultural Heritage Endangerment, tackles a recent and unprecedented problem at global level: Committing urban planning to allow the conservation of cultural and archaeological legacy for future generation. In an attempt to abridge the consequences of the decadence of historico-cultural landscapes, the historico-cultural endangerment (HCE) method will be applied to two entirely different regions in the world. On one side, the methodology will be applied on a regional emphasis in the Algarve region in Portugal, addressing the input of maintaining the integrity of archaeological landscapes, and on the other, a local micro-simulation of the Giza Pyramids in Egypt, shall allow to envision a segment of local consequences of urban pressure on irreplaceable monuments. The conclusions of both study-cases abridge the global nature of this problem as well as the importance of HCE implementation at different scales.

Cost effectiveness of denosumab compared with oral bisphosphonates in the treatment of post-menopausal osteoporotic women in Belgium.

PubMed

Hiligsmann, Mickaël; Reginster, Jean-Yves

2011-10-01

Denosumab has recently been shown to be well tolerated, to increase bone mineral density (BMD) and to significantly reduce the risk of hip, vertebral and non-vertebral fractures in the FREEDOM (Fracture REduction Evaluation of Denosumab in Osteoporosis every 6 Months) trial. It is becoming increasingly important to evaluate not only the therapeutic value of a new drug but also the cost effectiveness compared with the most relevant treatment alternatives. The objective of this study was to estimate the cost effectiveness of denosumab compared with oral bisphosphonates (branded and generic drugs) in the treatment of post-menopausal osteoporotic women in Belgium. Cost effectiveness of 3 years of treatment with denosumab was compared with branded risedronate and branded and generic alendronate using an updated version of a previously validated Markov microsimulation model. The model was populated with relevant cost, adherence and epidemiological data for Belgium from a payer perspective and the results were presented as costs per QALY gained (&U20AC;, year 2009 values). Analyses were performed in populations (aged ≥60 years) in which osteoporosis medications are currently reimbursed in many European countries, i.e. those with BMD T-score of -2.5 or less or prevalent vertebral fracture. Patients receiving denosumab were assumed to have a 46% lower risk of discontinuation than those receiving oral bisphosphonates, and the effect of denosumab after treatment cessation was assumed to decline linearly to zero over a maximum of 1 year. Denosumab was cost effective compared with all other therapies, assuming a willingness to pay of &U20AC;40 000 per QALY gained. In particular, denosumab was found to be cost effective compared with branded alendronate and risedronate at a threshold value of &U20AC;30 000 per QALY and denosumab was dominant (i.e. lower cost and greater effectiveness) compared with risedronate from the age of 70 years in women with a T-score of -2.5 or less and no prior fractures. The cost effectiveness of denosumab compared with generic alendronate was estimated at &U20AC;38 514, &U20AC;22 220 and &U20AC;27 862 per QALY for women aged 60, 70 and 80 years, respectively, with T-scores of -2.5 or less. The equivalent values were &U20AC;37 167, &U20AC;19 718 and &U20AC;19 638 per QALY for women with prevalent vertebral fractures. This study suggests, on the basis of currently available data, that denosumab is a cost-effective strategy compared with oral bisphosphonates (including generic alendronate) for the treatment of post-menopausal osteoporotic women, aged ≥60 years in Belgium. Denosumab therefore appears to have the potential to become a first-line treatment for post-menopausal women with osteoporosis. However, further studies would be required to evaluate the long-term safety and adherence of denosumab in real-world clinical practice as well as head-to-head effectiveness compared with oral bisphosphonates.

Long-term evaluation of benefits, harms, and cost-effectiveness of the National Bowel Cancer Screening Program in Australia: a modelling study.

PubMed

Lew, Jie-Bin; St John, D James B; Xu, Xiang-Ming; Greuter, Marjolein J E; Caruana, Michael; Cenin, Dayna R; He, Emily; Saville, Marion; Grogan, Paul; Coupé, Veerle M H; Canfell, Karen

2017-07-01

No assessment of the National Bowel Screening Program (NBCSP) in Australia, which considers all downstream benefits, costs, and harms, has been done. We aimed to use a comprehensive natural history model and the most recent information about cancer treatment costs to estimate long-term benefits, costs, and harms of the NBCSP (2 yearly immunochemical faecal occult blood testing screening at age 50-74 years) and evaluate the incremental effect of improved screening participation under different scenarios. In this modelling study, a microsimulation model, Policy1-Bowel, which simulates the development of colorectal cancer via both the conventional adenoma-carcinoma and serrated pathways was used to simulate the NBCSP in 2006-40, taking into account the gradual rollout of NBCSP in 2006-20. The base-case scenario assumed 40% screening participation (currently observed behaviour) and two alternative scenarios assuming 50% and 60% participation by 2020 were modelled. Aggregate year-by-year screening, diagnosis, treatment and surveillance-related costs, resource utilisation (number of screening tests and colonoscopies), and health outcomes (incident colorectal cancer cases and colorectal cancer deaths) were estimated, as was the cost-effectiveness of the NBCSP. With current levels of participation (40%), the NBCSP is expected to prevent 92 200 cancer cases and 59 000 deaths over the period 2015-40; an additional 24 300 and 37 300 cases and 16 800 and 24 800 deaths would be prevented if participation was increased to 50% and 60%, respectively. In 2020, an estimated 101 000 programme-related colonoscopies will be done, associated with about 270 adverse events; an additional 32 500 and 49 800 colonoscopies and 88 and 134 adverse events would occur if participation was increased to 50% and 60%, respectively. The overall number needed to screen (NNS) is 647-788 per death prevented, with 52-59 colonoscopies per death prevented. The programme is cost-effective due to the cancer treatment costs averted (cost-effectiveness ratio compared with no screening at current participation, AUS$3014 [95% uncertainty interval 1807-5583] per life-year saved) in the cost-effectiveness analysis. In the budget impact analysis, reduced annual expenditure on colorectal cancer control is expected by 2030, with expenditure reduced by a cumulative AUS$1·7 billion, AUS$2·0 billion, and AUS$2·1 billion (2015 prices) between 2030 and 2040, at participation rates of 40%, 50%, and 60%, respectively. The NBCSP has potential to save 83 800 lives over the period 2015-40 if coverage rates can be increased to 60%. By contrast, the associated harms, although an important consideration, are at a smaller magnitude at the population level. The programme is highly cost-effective and within a decade of full roll-out, there will be reduced annual health systems expenditure on colorectal cancer control due to the impact of screening. Australia Postgraduate Award PhD Scholarship, Translational Cancer Research Network Top-up scholarship (supported by Cancer Institute NSW) and Cancer Council NSW. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

The evaluation of clinical and cost outcomes associated with earlier initiation of insulin in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus.

PubMed

Smolen, Harry J; Murphy, Daniel R; Gahn, James C; Yu, Xueting; Curtis, Bradley H

2014-09-01

The treatment for patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) follows a stepwise progression. As a treatment loses its effectiveness, it is typically replaced with a more complex and frequently more costly treatment. Eventually this progression leads to the use of basal insulin typically with concomitant treatments (e.g., metformin, a GLP-1 RA [glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonist], a TZD [thiazolidinedione] or a DPP-4i [dipeptidyl peptidase 4 inhibitor]) and, ultimately, to basal-bolus insulin in some forms. As the cost of oral antidiabetics (OADs) and noninsulin injectables have approached, and in some cases exceeded, the cost of insulin, we reexamined the placement of insulin in T2DM treatment progression. Our hypothesis was that earlier use of insulin produces clinical and cost benefits due to its superior efficacy and treatment scalability at an acceptable cost when considered over a 5-year period. To (a) estimate clinical and payer cost outcomes of initiating insulin treatment for patients with T2DM earlier in their treatment progression and (b) estimate clinical and payer cost outcomes resulting from delays in escalating treatment for T2DM when indicated by patient hemoglobin A1c levels. We developed a Monte Carlo microsimulation model to estimate patients reaching target A1c, diabetes-related complications, mortality, and associated costs under various treatment strategies for newly diagnosed patients with T2DM. Treatment efficacies were modeled from results of randomized clinical trials, including the time and rate of A1c drift. A typical treatment progression was selected based on the American Diabetes Association and the European Association for the Study of Diabetes guidelines as the standard of care (SOC). Two treatment approaches were evaluated: two-stage insulin (basal plus antidiabetics followed by biphasic plus metformin) and single-stage insulin (biphasic plus metformin). For each approach, we analyzed multiple strategies. For each analysis, treatment steps were sequentially and cumulatively removed from the SOC until only the insulin steps remained. Delays in escalating treatment were evaluated by increasing the minimum time on a treatment within each strategy. The analysis time frame was 5 years. Relative to SOC, the two-stage insulin approach resulted in 0.10% to 1.79% more patients achieving target A1c (<7.0%), at incremental costs of $95 to $3,267. (The ranges are due to the different strategies within the approach.) With the single-stage approach, 0.50% to 2.63% more patients achieved the target A1c compared with SOC at an incremental cost of -$1,642 to $1,177. Major diabetes-related complications were reduced by 0.38% to 17.46% using the two-stage approach and 0.72% to 25.92% using the single-stage approach. Severe hypoglycemia increased by 17.97% to 60.43% using the two-stage approach and 6.44% to 68.87% using the single-stage approach. In the base case scenario, the minimum time on a specific treatment was 3 months. When the minimum time on each treatment was increased to 12 months (i.e., delayed), patients reaching A1c targets were reduced by 57%, complications increased by 13% to 76%, and mortality increased by 8% over 5 years when compared with the base case for the SOC. However, severe hypoglycemic events were reduced by 83%. As insulin was advanced earlier in therapy in the two-stage and single-stage approaches, patients reaching their A1c targets increased, severe hypoglycemic events increased, and diabetes-related complications and mortality decreased. Cost savings were estimated for 3 (of 4) strategies in the single-stage approach. Delays in treatment escalation substantially reduced patients reaching target A1c levels and increased the occurrence of major nonhypoglycemic diabetic complications. With the exception of substantial increases in severe hypoglycemic events, earlier use of insulin mitigates the clinical consequences of these delays.

Lifetime earnings patterns, the distribution of future Social Security benefits, and the impact of pension reform.

PubMed

Bosworth, B; Burtless, G; Steuerle, E

2000-01-01

In order to assess the effect of Social Security reform on current and future workers, it is essential to accurately characterize the initial situations of representative workers affected by reform. For the purpose of analyzing typical reforms, the most important characteristic of a worker is the level and pattern of his or her preretirement earnings. Under the current system, pensions are determined largely by the level of the workers' earnings averaged over their work life. However, several reform proposals would create individual retirement accounts for which the pension would depend on the investment accumulation within the account. Thus, the pension would also depend on the timing of the contributions into the account and hence on the exact shape of the worker's lifetime earnings profile. Most analysis of the distributional impact of reform has focused, however, on calculating benefit changes among a handful of hypothetical workers whose relative earnings are constant over their work life. The earnings levels are not necessarily chosen to represent the situations of workers who have typical or truly representative earnings patterns. Consequently, the results of such analysis can be misleading, especially if reform involves introducing a fundamentally new kind of pension formula. This article presents two broad approaches to creating representative earnings profiles for policy evaluation. First, we use standard econometric methods to predict future earnings for a representative sample of workers drawn from the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP). Our statistical estimates are based on a simple representation of typical career earnings paths and a fixed-effect statistical specification. Because our estimation file contains information on each worker's annual earnings from 1951 through 1996 as reported in the Social Security Administration's earnings files, we have a record (though an incomplete one) of the actual earnings that will be used to determine future benefit payments. Our estimates of the earnings function permit us to make highly differentiated predictions of future earnings for each member of our sample. By combining the historical information on individual earnings with our prediction of future earnings up through the normal retirement age, our first approach produces tens of thousands of predicted career earnings paths that can be used in microsimulation policy analysis. Our second approach to creating lifetime earnings profiles is similar in some ways to the traditional method. For example, it is based on the creation of only a handful of "stylized" career earnings patterns. An important difference with the traditional method, however, is that we define the career earnings patterns so that they are truly representative of patterns observed in the workforce. We use simple mathematical formulas to characterize each stylized earnings pattern, and we then produce estimates of the average path of annual earnings for workers whose career earning path falls within each of the stylized patterns we have defined. Finally, we calculate the percentage of workers in successive birth-year cohorts who have earnings profiles that match each of the stylized earnings patterns. Although this method may seem simple, it allows the analyst to create stylized earnings patterns that are widely varied but still representative of earnings patterns observed among sizable groups of U.S. workers. The effects of policy reforms can then be calculated for workers with each of the stylized earnings patterns. Our analysis of U.S. lifetime earnings patterns and of the impact of selected policy reforms produces a number of findings about past trends in earnings, typical earnings patterns in the population, and the potential impact of reform. The analysis focuses on men and women born between 1931 and 1960. Along with earlier analysts, we find that men earn substantially higher lifetime wages than women and typically attain their peak career earnings at a somewhat earlier age. However, the difference in career earnings patterns between men and women has narrowed dramatically over time. Workers with greater educational attainment earn substantially higher wages than those with less education, and they attain their peak career earnings later in life. For example, among men with the least education, peak earnings are often attained around or even before age 40, whereas many men with substantial postsecondary schooling do not reach their peak career earnings until after 50. Our tabulations of the lifetime earnings profiles of the oldest cohorts (born around 1930) and projections of the earnings of the youngest profiles (born around 1960) imply that the inequality of lifetime earnings has increased noticeably over time. Women in the top one-fifth of female earners and men in the top one-fifth of male earners are predicted to receive a growing multiple of the economy-wide average wage during their career. Women born between 1931 and 1935 who were in the top fifth of female earners had lifetime average earnings that were approximately equal to the average economy-wide wage. In contrast, women born after 1951 who were in the top fifth of earners are predicted to earn almost 50 percent more, that is, roughly 150 percent of the economy-wide average wage. Women with a lower rank in the female earnings distribution will also see gains in their lifetime average earnings, but their gains are predicted to be proportionately much smaller than those of women with a high rank in the distribution. Men with high earnings are also predicted to enjoy substantial gains in their relative lifetime earnings, while men with a lower rank in the earnings distribution will probably see a significant erosion in their typical wages relative to the economy-wide average wage. That is mainly the result of a sharp decline in the relative earnings of low-wage men born after 1950. In creating stylized earnings profiles that are representative of those of significant minorities of U.S. workers, we emphasized three critical elements of the earnings path: the average level of earnings over a worker's career, the upward or downward trend in earnings from the worker's 30s through his or her early 60s, and the "sagging" or "hump-shaped" profile of earnings over the worker's career. That classification scheme yields 27 characteristic patterns of lifetime earnings. Surprisingly, the differnce between men and women within each of those categories is quite modest. The main difference between men and women is in the proportions of workers who fall in each category. Only 14 percent of men born between 1931 and 1940 fall in earnings categories with the lowest one-third of lifetime earnings, whereas 53 percent of women born in those years have low-average-earnings profiles. On the other hand, women born in those years are more likely to have a rising trend in lifetime earnings, while men are more likely to have a declining trend. We find that the distribution of lifetime earnings contains relatively more workers with below-average earnings and relatively fewer with very high earnings than assumed in the Social Security Administration's traditional policy analysis. For example, the "low earner" traditionally assumed by the Office of the Chief Actuary is assigned a level of average lifetime earnings that we find to be higher than the average earnings of persons in the bottom one-third of the lifetime earnings distribution. The stylized earnings profiles developed here can be used for policy evaluation, and the results can be compared with those from the more traditional analysis. That comparison produces several notable findings. Because earnings profiles that are actually representative of the population tend to have lower average earnings than assumed in the traditional analysis, workers typically accumulate somewhat less Social Security wealth than implied in the traditional analysis. On the other hand, because the basic benefit formula is tilted in favor of lower-income workers, the internal rate of return on Social Security contributions is somewhat higher than detected in the traditional analysis. Moreover, the primary insurance amount measured as a percentage of the worker's average indexed earnings tends to be higher than implied by the traditional analysis. Finally, the stylized earnings patterns can be used to compare benefit levels enjoyed by workers under the traditional Social Security formula and under an alternative plan based on individual investment accounts. That comparison shows, as expected, that the traditional formula favors low-wage workers and one-earner couples, while an investment account favors single, high-wage workers. Comparing two workers with the same lifetime average earnings, the traditional formula favors workers with rising earnings profiles (that is, with lifetime earnings heavily concentrated at the end of their career), while investment account pensions favor workers with declining earnings profiles (that is, with earnings concentrated early in their career).