Geo-spatial analysis of temporal trends of temperature and its extremes over India using daily gridded (1°×1°) temperature data of 1969-2005

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chakraborty, Abhishek; Seshasai, M. V. R.; Rao, S. V. C. Kameswara; Dadhwal, V. K.

2017-10-01

Daily gridded (1°×1°) temperature data (1969-2005) were used to detect spatial patterns of temporal trends of maximum and minimum temperature (monthly and seasonal), growing degree days (GDDs) over the crop-growing season ( kharif, rabi, and zaid) and annual frequencies of temperature extremes over India. The direction and magnitude of trends, at each grid level, were estimated using the Mann-Kendall statistics ( α = 0.05) and further assessed at the homogeneous temperature regions using a field significance test ( α=0.05). General warming trends were observed over India with considerable variations in direction and magnitude over space and time. The spatial extent and the magnitude of the increasing trends of minimum temperature (0.02-0.04 °C year-1) were found to be higher than that of maximum temperature (0.01-0.02 °C year-1) during winter and pre-monsoon seasons. Significant negative trends of minimum temperature were found over eastern India during the monsoon months. Such trends were also observed for the maximum temperature over northern and eastern parts, particularly in the winter month of January. The general warming patterns also changed the thermal environment of the crop-growing season causing significant increase in GDDs during kharif and rabi seasons across India. The warming climate has also caused significant increase in occurrences of hot extremes such as hot days and hot nights, and significant decrease in cold extremes such as cold days and cold nights.

Inter-annual Variability of Temperature and Extreme Heat Events during the Nairobi Warm Season

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scott, A.; Misiani, H. O.; Zaitchik, B. F.; Ouma, G. O.; Anyah, R. O.; Jordan, A.

2016-12-01

Extreme heat events significantly stress all organisms in the ecosystem, and are likely to be amplified in peri-urban and urban areas. Understanding the variability and drivers behind these events is key to generating early warnings, yet in Equatorial East Africa, this information is currently unavailable. This study uses daily maximum and minimum temperature records from weather stations within Nairobi and its surroundings to characterize variability in daily minimum temperatures and the number of extreme heat events. ERA-Interim reanalysis is applied to assess the drivers of these events at event and seasonal time scales. At seasonal time scales, high temperatures in Nairobi are a function of large scale climate variability associated with the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) and Global Mean Sea Surface Temperature (GMSST). Extreme heat events, however, are more strongly associated with the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). For instance, the persistence of AMO and ENSO, in particular, provide a basis for seasonal prediction of extreme heat events/days in Nairobi. It is also apparent that the temporal signal from extreme heat events in tropics differs from classic heat wave definitions developed in the mid-latitudes, which suggests that a new approach for defining these events is necessary for tropical regions.

Trends in Middle East climate extreme indices from 1950 to 2003

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Xuebin; Aguilar, Enric; Sensoy, Serhat; Melkonyan, Hamlet; Tagiyeva, Umayra; Ahmed, Nader; Kutaladze, Nato; Rahimzadeh, Fatemeh; Taghipour, Afsaneh; Hantosh, T. H.; Albert, Pinhas; Semawi, Mohammed; Karam Ali, Mohammad; Said Al-Shabibi, Mansoor Halal; Al-Oulan, Zaid; Zatari, Taha; Al Dean Khelet, Imad; Hamoud, Saleh; Sagir, Ramazan; Demircan, Mesut; Eken, Mehmet; Adiguzel, Mustafa; Alexander, Lisa; Peterson, Thomas C.; Wallis, Trevor

2005-11-01

A climate change workshop for the Middle East brought together scientists and data for the region to produce the first area-wide analysis of climate extremes for the region. This paper reports trends in extreme precipitation and temperature indices that were computed during the workshop and additional indices data that became available after the workshop. Trends in these indices were examined for 1950-2003 at 52 stations covering 15 countries, including Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Cyprus, Georgia, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and Turkey. Results indicate that there have been statistically significant, spatially coherent trends in temperature indices that are related to temperature increases in the region. Significant, increasing trends have been found in the annual maximum of daily maximum and minimum temperature, the annual minimum of daily maximum and minimum temperature, the number of summer nights, and the number of days where daily temperature has exceeded its 90th percentile. Significant negative trends have been found in the number of days when daily temperature is below its 10th percentile and daily temperature range. Trends in precipitation indices, including the number of days with precipitation, the average precipitation intensity, and maximum daily precipitation events, are weak in general and do not show spatial coherence. The workshop attendees have generously made the indices data available for the international research community.

Warming and wetting signals emerging from analysis of changes in climate extreme indices over South America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skansi, María de los Milagros; Brunet, Manola; Sigró, Javier; Aguilar, Enric; Arevalo Groening, Juan Andrés; Bentancur, Oscar J.; Castellón Geier, Yaruska Rosa; Correa Amaya, Ruth Leonor; Jácome, Homero; Malheiros Ramos, Andrea; Oria Rojas, Clara; Pasten, Alejandro Max; Sallons Mitro, Sukarni; Villaroel Jiménez, Claudia; Martínez, Rodney; Alexander, Lisa V.; Jones, P. D.

2013-01-01

Here we show and discuss the results of an assessment of changes in both area-averaged and station-based climate extreme indices over South America (SA) for the 1950-2010 and 1969-2009 periods using high-quality daily maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation series. A weeklong regional workshop in Guayaquil (Ecuador) provided the opportunity to extend the current picture of changes in climate extreme indices over SA. Our results provide evidence of warming and wetting across the whole SA since the mid-20th century onwards. Nighttime (minimum) temperature indices show the largest rates of warming (e.g. for tropical nights, cold and warm nights), while daytime (maximum) temperature indices also point to warming (e.g. for cold days, summer days, the annual lowest daytime temperature), but at lower rates than for minimums. Both tails of night-time temperatures have warmed by a similar magnitude, with cold days (the annual lowest nighttime and daytime temperatures) seeing reductions (increases). Trends are strong and moderate (moderate to weak) for regional-averaged (local) indices, most of them pointing to a less cold SA during the day and warmer night-time temperatures. Regionally-averaged precipitation indices show clear wetting and a signature of intensified heavy rain events over the eastern part of the continent. The annual amounts of rainfall are rising strongly over south-east SA (26.41 mm/decade) and Amazonia (16.09 mm/decade), but north-east Brazil and the western part of SA have experienced non-significant decreases. Very wet and extremely days, the annual maximum 5-day and 1-day precipitation show the largest upward trends, indicating an intensified rainfall signal for SA, particularly over Amazonia and south-east SA. Local trends for precipitation extreme indices are in general less coherent spatially, but with more general spatially coherent upward trends in extremely wet days over all SA.

Trend of annual temperature and frequency of extreme events in the MATOPIBA region of Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salvador, Mozar de A.; de Brito, J. I. B.

2017-06-01

During the 1980s, a new agricultural frontier arouse in Brazil, which occupied part of the states of Maranhão, Tocantins, Piauí, and Bahia. Currently, this new frontier is known as the MATOPIBA region. The region went through intense transformations in its social and environmental characteristics, with the emergence of extensive areas of intensive agriculture and large herds. The purpose of this research was to study the climatic variabilities of temperature in the MATOPIBA region through extreme climate indexes of ClimAp tool. Data from 11 weather stations were analyzed for yearly air temperature (maximum and minimum) in the period of 1970 to 2012. To verify the trend in the series, we used methods of linear regression analysis and Kendall-tau test. The annual analysis of maximum and minimum temperatures and of the temperature extremes indexes showed a strong positive trend in practically every series (with p value less than 0.05). These results indicated that the region went through to a significant heating process in the last 3 decades. The indices of extreme also showed a significant positive trend in most of the analyzed stations, indicating a higher frequency of warm days during the year.

Extreme temperature indices analyses: A case study of five meteorological stations in Peninsular Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hasan, Husna; Salleh, Nur Hanim Mohd

2015-10-01

Extreme temperature events affect many human and natural systems. Changes in extreme temperature events can be detected and monitored by developing the indices based on the extreme temperature data. As an effort to provide the understanding of these changes to the public, a study of extreme temperature indices is conducted at five meteorological stations in Peninsular Malaysia. In this study, changes in the means and extreme events of temperature are assessed and compared using the daily maximum and minimum temperature data for the period of 2004 to 2013. The absolute extreme temperature indices; TXx, TXn, TXn and TNn provided by Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) are utilized and linear trends of each index are extracted using least square likelihood method. The results indicate that there exist significant decreasing trend in the TXx index for Kota Bharu station and increasing trend in TNn index for Chuping and Kota Kinabalu stations. The comparison between the trend in mean and extreme temperatures show the same significant tendency for Kota Bharu and Kuala Terengganu stations.

The Effects of Spectral Nudging on Arctic Temperature and Precipitation Extremes as Produced by the Pan-Arctic WRF

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glisan, J. M.; Gutowski, W. J.; Higgins, M.; Cassano, J. J.

2011-12-01

Pan-Arctic WRF (PAW) simulations produced using the 50-km wr50a domain developed for the fully-coupled Regional Arctic Climate Model (RACM) were found to produce deep atmospheric circulation biases over the northern Pacific Ocean, manifested in pressure, geopotential height, and temperature fields. Various remedies were unsuccessfully tested to correct these large biases, such as modifying the physical domain or using different initial/boundary conditions. Spectral (interior) nudging was introduced as a way of constraining the model to be more consistent with observed behavior. However, such control over numerical model behavior raises concerns over how much nudging may affect unforced variability and extremes. Strong nudging may reduce or filter out extreme events, since the nudging pushes the model toward a relatively smooth, large-scale state. The question then becomes - what is the minimum spectral nudging needed to correct the biases occurring on the RACM domain while not limiting PAW simulation of extreme events? To determine this, case studies were devised, using a six-member PAW ensemble on the RACM grid with varying spectral nudging strength. Two simulations were run, one in the cold season (January 2007) and one in a warm season (July 2007). Precipitation and 2-m temperature fields were extracted from the output and analyzed to determine how changing spectral nudging strength impacts both temporal and spatial temperature and precipitation extremes. The maximum and minimum temperatures at each point from among the ensemble members were examined, on the 95th confidence interval. The maximum and minimums over the simulation period will also be considered. Results suggest that there is a marked lack of sensitivity to the degrees of nudging. Moreover, it appears nudging strength can be considerably smaller than the standard strength and still produce reliably good simulations.

Torrejon AB, Madrid, Spain. revised uniform summary of surface weather observations (RUSSWO). parts a-f. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1978-10-03

This report is a six-part statistical summary of surface weather observations for Torrejon AB, Madrid Spain. It contains the following parts: (A) Weather Conditions; Atmospheric Phenomena; (B) Precipitation, Snowfall and Snow Depth (daily amounts and extreme values); (C) Surface winds; (D) Ceiling Versus Visibility; Sky Cover; (E) Psychrometric Summaries (daily maximum and minimum temperatures, extreme maximum and minimum temperatures, psychrometric summary of wet-bulb temperature depression versus dry-bulb temperature, means and standard deviations of dry-bulb, wet-bulb and dew-point temperatures and relative humidity); and (F) Pressure Summary (means, standard, deviations, and observation counts of station pressure and sea-level pressure). Data in thismore » report are presented in tabular form, in most cases in percentage frequency of occurrence or cumulative percentage frequency of occurrence tables.« less

Extremely cold events and sudden air temperature drops during winter season in the Czech Republic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crhová, Lenka; Valeriánová, Anna; Holtanová, Eva; Müller, Miloslav; Kašpar, Marek; Stříž, Martin

2014-05-01

Today a great attention is turned to analysis of extreme weather events and frequency of their occurrence under changing climate. In most cases, these studies are focused on extremely warm events in summer season. However, extremely low values of air temperature during winter can have serious impacts on many sectors as well (e.g. power engineering, transportation, industry, agriculture, human health). Therefore, in present contribution we focus on extremely and abnormally cold air temperature events in winter season in the Czech Republic. Besides the seasonal extremes of minimum air temperature determined from station data, the standardized data with removed annual cycle are used as well. Distribution of extremely cold events over the season and the temporal evolution of frequency of occurrence during the period 1961-2010 are analyzed. Furthermore, the connection of cold events with extreme sudden temperature drops is studied. The extreme air temperature events and events of extreme sudden temperature drop are assessed using the Weather Extremity Index, which evaluates the extremity (based on return periods) and spatial extent of the meteorological extreme event of interest. The generalized extreme value distribution parameters are used to estimate return periods of daily temperature values. The work has been supported by the grant P209/11/1990 funded by the Czech Science Foundation.

Uncertainties in observations and climate projections for the North East India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soraisam, Bidyabati; Karumuri, Ashok; D. S., Pai

2018-01-01

The Northeast-India has undergone many changes in climatic-vegetation related issues in the last few decades due to increased human activities. However, lack of observations makes it difficult to ascertain the climate change. The study involves the mean, seasonal cycle, trend and extreme-month analysis for summer-monsoon and winter seasons of observed climate data from Indian Meteorological Department (1° × 1°) and Aphrodite & CRU-reanalysis (both 0.5° × 0.5°), and five regional-climate-model simulations (LMDZ, MPI, GFDL, CNRM and ACCESS) data from AR5/CORDEX-South-Asia (0.5° × 0.5°). Long-term (1970-2005) observed, minimum and maximum monthly temperature and precipitation, and the corresponding CORDEX-South-Asia data for historical (1970-2005) and future-projections of RCP4.5 (2011-2060) have been analyzed for long-term trends. A large spread is found across the models in spatial distributions of various mean maximum/minimum climate statistics, though models capture a similar trend in the corresponding area-averaged seasonal cycles qualitatively. Our observational analysis broadly suggests that there is no significant trend in rainfall. Significant trends are observed in the area-averaged minimum temperature during winter. All the CORDEX-South-Asia simulations for the future project either a decreasing insignificant trend in seasonal precipitation, but increasing trend for both seasonal maximum and minimum temperature over the northeast India. The frequency of extreme monthly maximum and minimum temperature are projected to increase. It is not clear from future projections how the extreme rainfall months during JJAS may change. The results show the uncertainty exists in the CORDEX-South-Asia model projections over the region in spite of the relatively high resolution.

Trends and variability of daily temperature and precipitation extremes during 1960-2012 in the Yangtze River Basin, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guan, Yinghui

2017-04-01

The variability of surface air temperature and precipitation extremes has been the focus of attention during the past several decades, and may exert a great influence on the global hydrologic cycle and energy balance through thermal forcing. Using daily minimum (TN), maximum temperature (TX) and precipitation　from 143 meteorological stations in the Yangtze River Basin (YRB), a suite of extreme climate indices recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices, which has rarely been applied in this region, were computed and analyzed during 1960-2012. The results show widespread significant changes in all temperature indices associated with warming in the YRB during 1960-2012. On the whole, cold-related indices, i.e., cold nights, cold days, frost days, icing days and cold spell duration index significantly decreased by -3.45, -1.03, -3.04, -0.42 and -1.6 days/decade, respectively. In contrast, warm-related indices such as warm nights, warm days, summer days, tropical nights and warm spell duration index significantly increased by 2.95, 1.71, 2.16, 1.05 and 0.73 days/decade. Minimum TN, maximum TN, minimum TX and maximum TX increased significantly by 0.42, 0.18, 0.19 and 0.14 °C/decade. Because of a faster increase in minimum temperature than maximum temperature, the diurnal temperature range (DTR) exhibited a significant decreasing trend of -0.09 °C/decade for the whole YRB during 1960-2012. Geographically, stations in the eastern Tibet Plateau and northeastern YRB showed stronger trends in almost all temperature indices. Time series analysis indicated that the YRB was dominated by a general cooling trend before the mid-1980s, but a warming trend afterwards. For precipitation, simple daily intensity index, very wet day precipitation, extremely wet day precipitation, extremely heavy precipitation days, maximum 1-day precipitation, maximum 5-day precipitation and maximum consecutive dry days all increased significantly during 1960-2012. In contrast, ≥ 10 mm precipitation days and maximum consecutive wet days decreased significantly, implying that the precipitation processes in YRB were dominated by precipitation events with shorter durations. Geographically, a wetting tendency was observed in the eastern Tibet Plateau and the middle and lower YRB, while the other regions experienced precipitation deficits. The increasing precipitation was mainly due to the intensification of extreme precipitation events and the decreasing precipitation may be attributed to the decrease of ≥ 10 mm precipitation days or moderate precipitation events. In addition, the regional trends were of greater magnitudes in the middle and lower YRB, indicating more frequent extreme precipitation events in these sub-regions.

High-Resolution Dynamical Downscaling Ensemble Projections of Future Extreme Temperature Distributions for the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zobel, Zachary; Wang, Jiali; Wuebbles, Donald J.; Kotamarthi, V. Rao

2017-12-01

The aim of this study is to examine projections of extreme temperatures over the continental United States (CONUS) for the 21st century using an ensemble of high spatial resolution dynamically downscaled model simulations with different boundary conditions. The downscaling uses the Weather Research and Forecast model at a spatial resolution of 12 km along with outputs from three different Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 global climate models that provide boundary conditions under two different future greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration trajectories. The results from two decadal-length time slices (2045-2054 and 2085-2094) are compared with a historical decade (1995-2004). Probability density functions of daily maximum/minimum temperatures are analyzed over seven climatologically cohesive regions of the CONUS. The impacts of different boundary conditions as well as future GHG concentrations on extreme events such as heat waves and days with temperature higher than 95°F are also investigated. The results show that the intensity of extreme warm temperature in future summer is significantly increased, while the frequency of extreme cold temperature in future winter decreases. The distribution of summer daily maximum temperature experiences a significant warm-side shift and increased variability, while the distribution of winter daily minimum temperature is projected to have a less significant warm-side shift with decreased variability. Using "business-as-usual" scenario, 5-day heat waves are projected to occur at least 5-10 times per year in most CONUS and ≥95°F days will increase by 1-2 months by the end of the century.

Tendencies of extreme values on rainfall and temperature and its relationship with teleconnection patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taboada, J. J.; Cabrejo, A.; Guarin, D.; Ramos, A. M.

2009-04-01

It is now very well established that yearly averaged temperatures are increasing due to anthropogenic climate change. In the area of Galicia (NW Spain) this trend has also been determined. Rainfall does not show a clear tendency in its yearly accumulated values. The aim of this work is to study different extreme indices of rainfall and temperatures analysing variability and possible trends associated to climate change. Station data for the study was provided by the CLIMA database of the regional government of Galicia (NW Spain). The definition of the extreme indices was taken from the joint CCl/CLIVAR/JCOMM Expert Team (ET) on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) This group has defined a set of standard extreme values to simplify intercomparison of data from different regions of the world. For the temperatures in the period 1960-2006, results show a significant increase of the number of days with maximum temperatures above the 90th percentile. Furthermore, a significant decrease of the days with maximum temperatures below the 10th percentile has been found. The tendencies of minimum temperatures are reverse: fewer nights with minimum temperatures below 10th percentile, and more with minimum temperatures above 90th percentile. Those tendencies can be observed all over the year, but are more pronounced in summer. This trend is expected to continue in the next decades because of anthropogenic climate change. We have also calculated the relationship between the above mentioned extreme values and different teleconnection patterns appearing in the North Atlantic area. Results show that local tendencies are associated with trends of EA (Eastern Atlantic) and SCA (Scandinavian) patterns. NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) has also some relationship with these tendencies, but only related with cold days and nights in winter. Rainfall index do not show any clear tendency on the annual scale. Nevertheless, the count of days when precipitation is greater than 20mm (R20mm) and the total precipitation when rainfall is greater than 95th percentile (R95pTOT) diminishes in winter and spring, but increases in autumn. This trend is related with NAO in winter and spring and with SCA in autumn.

Daily temperature and precipitation extremes in the Baltic Sea region derived from the BaltAn65+ reanalysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toll, Velle; Post, Piia

2018-04-01

Daily 2-m temperature and precipitation extremes in the Baltic Sea region for the time period of 1965-2005 is studied based on data from the BaltAn65 + high resolution atmospheric reanalysis. Moreover, the ability of regional reanalysis to capture extremes is analysed by comparing the reanalysis data to gridded observations. The shortcomings in the simulation of the minimum temperatures over the northern part of the region and in the simulation of the extreme precipitation over the Scandinavian mountains in the BaltAn65+ reanalysis data are detected and analysed. Temporal trends in the temperature and precipitation extremes in the Baltic Sea region, with the largest increases in temperature and precipitation in winter, are detected based on both gridded observations and the BaltAn65+ reanalysis data. However, the reanalysis is not able to capture all of the regional trends in the extremes in the observations due to the shortcomings in the simulation of the extremes.

Influence of North Atlantic modes on European climate extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Proemmel, K.; Cubasch, U.

2017-12-01

It is well known that the North Atlantic strongly influences European climate. Only few studies exist that focus on its impact on climate extremes. We are interested in these extremes and the processes and mechanisms behind it. For the analysis of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) we use simulations performed with the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth System Model (MPI-ESM). The NAO has a strong impact especially on European winter and the changes in minimum temperature are even larger than in maximum temperature. The impact of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Variability (AMV) on climate extremes is analyzed in ECHAM6 simulations forced with AMV warm and AMV cold sea surface temperature patterns. We analyze different extreme indices and try to understand the processes.

Climate and its change over the Tibetan Plateau and its Surroundings in 1963-2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ding, J.; Cuo, L.

2017-12-01

Tibetan Plateau and its surroundings (TPS, 23°-43°N, 73°-106°E) lies in the southwest of China and includes Tibet Autonomous Region, Qinghai Province, southern Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, part of Gansu Province, western Sichuan Province, and northern Yunnan Province. The region is of strategic importance in water resources because it is the headwater of ten large rivers that support more than 16 billion population. In this study, we use daily temperature maximum and minimum, precipitation and wind speed in 1963-2015 obtained from Climate Data Center of China Meteorological Administration and Qinghai Meteorological Bureau to investigate extreme climate conditions and their changes over the TPS. The extreme events are selected based on annual extreme values and percentiles. Annual extreme value approach produces one value each year for all variables, which enables us to examine the magnitude of extreme events; whereas percentile approach selects extreme values by setting 95th percentile as thresholds for maximum temperature, precipitation and wind speed, and 5th percentile for minimum temperature. Percentile approach not only enables us to investigate the magnitude but also frequency of the extreme events. Also, Mann-Kendall trend and mutation analysis were applied to analyze the changes in mean and extreme conditions. The results will help us understand more about the extreme events during the past five decades on the TPS and will provide valuable information for the upcoming IPCC reports on climate change.

High-Resolution Dynamical Downscaling Ensemble Projections of Future Extreme Temperature Distributions for the United States

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zobel, Zachary; Wang, Jiali; Wuebbles, Donald J.

The aim of this study is to examine projections of extreme temperatures over the continental United States (CONUS) for the 21st century using an ensemble of high spatial resolution dynamically downscaled model simulations with different boundary conditions. The downscaling uses the Weather Research and Forecast model at a spatial resolution of 12 km along with outputs from three different Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 global climate models that provide boundary con- ditions under two different future greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration trajectories. The results from two decadal-length time slices (2045–2054 and 2085–2094) are compared with a historical decade (1995–2004). Probabilitymore » density functions of daily maximum/minimum temperatures are analyzed over seven climatologically cohesive regions of the CONUS. The impacts of different boundary conditions as well as future GHG concentrations on extreme events such as heat waves and days with temperature higher than 95°F are also investigated. The results show that the intensity of extreme warm temperature in future summer is significantly increased, while the frequency of extreme cold temperature in future winter decreases. The distribution of summer daily maximum temperature experiences a significant warm-side shift and increased variability, while the distribution of winter daily minimum temperature is projected to have a less significant warm-side shift with decreased variability. Finally, using "business-as-usual" scenario, 5-day heat waves are projected to occur at least 5–10 times per year in most CONUS and ≥ 95°F days will increase by 1–2 months by the end of the century.« less

High-Resolution Dynamical Downscaling Ensemble Projections of Future Extreme Temperature Distributions for the United States

DOE PAGES

Zobel, Zachary; Wang, Jiali; Wuebbles, Donald J.; ...

2017-11-20

The aim of this study is to examine projections of extreme temperatures over the continental United States (CONUS) for the 21st century using an ensemble of high spatial resolution dynamically downscaled model simulations with different boundary conditions. The downscaling uses the Weather Research and Forecast model at a spatial resolution of 12 km along with outputs from three different Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 global climate models that provide boundary con- ditions under two different future greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration trajectories. The results from two decadal-length time slices (2045–2054 and 2085–2094) are compared with a historical decade (1995–2004). Probabilitymore » density functions of daily maximum/minimum temperatures are analyzed over seven climatologically cohesive regions of the CONUS. The impacts of different boundary conditions as well as future GHG concentrations on extreme events such as heat waves and days with temperature higher than 95°F are also investigated. The results show that the intensity of extreme warm temperature in future summer is significantly increased, while the frequency of extreme cold temperature in future winter decreases. The distribution of summer daily maximum temperature experiences a significant warm-side shift and increased variability, while the distribution of winter daily minimum temperature is projected to have a less significant warm-side shift with decreased variability. Finally, using "business-as-usual" scenario, 5-day heat waves are projected to occur at least 5–10 times per year in most CONUS and ≥ 95°F days will increase by 1–2 months by the end of the century.« less

Spatiotemporal trends in extreme rainfall and temperature indices over Upper Tapi Basin, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, Priyank J.; Loliyana, V. D.; S. R., Resmi; Timbadiya, P. V.; Patel, P. L.

2017-12-01

The flood risk across the globe is intensified due to global warming and subsequent increase in extreme temperature and precipitation. The long-term trends in extreme rainfall (1944-2013) and temperature (1969-2012) indices have been investigated at annual, seasonal, and monthly time scales using nonparametric Mann-Kendall (MK), modified Mann-Kendall (MMK), and Sen's slope estimator tests. The extreme rainfall and temperature indices, recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection Monitoring Indices (ETCCDMI), have been analyzed at finer spatial scales for trend detection. The results of trend analyses indicate decreasing trend in annual total rainfall, significant decreasing trend in rainy days, and increasing trend in rainfall intensity over the basin. The seasonal rainfall has been found to decrease for all the seasons except postmonsoon, which could affect the rain-fed agriculture in the basin. The 1- and 5-day annual maximum rainfalls exhibit mixed trends, wherein part of the basin experiences increasing trend, while other parts experience a decreasing trend. The increase in dry spells and concurrent decrease in wet spells are also observed over the basin. The extreme temperature indices revealed increasing trends in hottest and coldest days, while decreasing trends in coldest night are found over most parts of the basin. Further, the diurnal temperature range is also found to increase due to warming tendency in maximum temperature (T max) at a faster rate compared to the minimum temperature (T min). The increase in frequency and magnitude of extreme rainfall in the basin has been attributed to the increasing trend in maximum and minimum temperatures, reducing forest cover, rapid pace of urbanization, increase in human population, and thereby increase in the aerosol content in the atmosphere. The findings of the present study would significantly help in sustainable water resource planning, better decision-making for policy framework, and setting up infrastructure against flood disasters in Upper Tapi Basin, India.

Operational forecasting of daily temperatures in the Valencia Region. Part II: minimum temperatures in winter.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gómez, I.; Estrela, M.

2009-09-01

Extreme temperature events have a great impact on human society. Knowledge of minimum temperatures during winter is very useful for both the general public and organisations whose workers have to operate in the open, e.g. railways, roadways, tourism, etc. Moreover, winter minimum temperatures are considered a parameter of interest and concern since persistent cold-waves can affect areas as diverse as public health, energy consumption, etc. Thus, an accurate forecasting of these temperatures could help to predict cold-wave conditions and permit the implementation of strategies aimed at minimizing the negative effects that low temperatures have on human health. The aim of this work is to evaluate the skill of the RAMS model in determining daily minimum temperatures during winter over the Valencia Region. For this, we have used the real-time configuration of this model currently running at the CEAM Foundation. To carry out the model verification process, we have analysed not only the global behaviour of the model for the whole Valencia Region, but also its behaviour for the individual stations distributed within this area. The study has been performed for the winter forecast period from 1 December 2007 - 31 March 2008. The results obtained are encouraging and indicate a good agreement between the observed and simulated minimum temperatures. Moreover, the model captures quite well the temperatures in the extreme cold episodes. Acknowledgement. This work was supported by "GRACCIE" (CSD2007-00067, Programa Consolider-Ingenio 2010), by the Spanish Ministerio de Educación y Ciencia, contract number CGL2005-03386/CLI, and by the Regional Government of Valencia Conselleria de Sanitat, contract "Simulación de las olas de calor e invasiones de frío y su regionalización en la Comunidad Valenciana" ("Heat wave and cold invasion simulation and their regionalization at Valencia Region"). The CEAM Foundation is supported by the Generalitat Valenciana and BANCAIXA (Valencia, Spain).

Spatiotemporal variability of extreme temperature frequency and amplitude in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yuanjie; Gao, Zhiqiu; Pan, Zaitao; Li, Dan; Huang, Xinhui

2017-03-01

Temperature extremes in China are examined based on daily maximum and minimum temperatures from station observations and multiple global climate models. The magnitude and frequency of extremes are expressed in terms of return values and periods, respectively, estimated by the fitted Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution of annual extreme temperatures. The observations suggest that changes in temperature extremes considerably exceed changes in the respective climatological means during the past five decades, with greater amplitude of increases in cold extremes than in warm extremes. The frequency of warm (cold) extremes increases (decreases) over most areas, with an increasingly faster rate as the extremity level rises. Changes in warm extremes are more dependent on the varying shape of GEV distribution than the location shift, whereas changes in cold extremes are more closely associated with the location shift. The models simulate the overall pattern of temperature extremes during 1961-1981 reasonably well in China, but they show a smaller asymmetry between changes in warm and cold extremes primarily due to their underestimation of increases in cold extremes especially over southern China. Projections from a high emission scenario show the multi-model median change in warm and cold extremes by 2040 relative to 1971 will be 2.6 °C and 2.8 °C, respectively, with the strongest changes in cold extremes shifting southward. By 2040, warm extremes at the 1971 20-year return values would occur about every three years, while the 1971 cold extremes would occur once in > 500 years.

Changes in heat waves indices in Romania over the period 1961-2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Croitoru, Adina-Eliza; Piticar, Adrian; Ciupertea, Antoniu-Flavius; Roşca, Cristina Florina

2016-11-01

In the last two decades many climate change studies have focused on extreme temperatures as they have a significant impact on environment and society. Among the weather events generated by extreme temperatures, heat waves are some of the most harmful. The main objective of this study was to detect and analyze changes in heat waves in Romania based on daily observation data (maximum and minimum temperature) over the extended summer period (May-Sept) using a set of 10 indices and to explore the spatial patterns of changes. Heat wave data series were derived from daily maximum and minimum temperature data sets recorded in 29 weather stations across Romania over a 55-year period (1961-2015). In this study, the threshold chosen was the 90th percentile calculated based on a 15-day window centered on each calendar day, and for three baseline periods (1961-1990, 1971-2000, and 1981-2010). Two heat wave definitions were considered: at least three consecutive days when maximum temperature exceeds 90th percentile, and at least three consecutive days when minimum temperature exceeds 90th percentile. For each of them, five variables were calculated: amplitude, magnitude, number of events, duration, and frequency. Finally, 10 indices resulted for further analysis. The main results are: most of the indices have statistically significant increasing trends; only one index for one weather station indicated statistically significant decreasing trend; the changes are more intense in case of heat waves detected based on maximum temperature compared to those obtained for heat waves identified based on minimum temperature; western and central regions of Romania are the most exposed to increasing heat waves.

Actual and future trends of extreme values of temperature for the NW Iberian Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taboada, J.; Brands, S.; Lorenzo, N.

2009-09-01

It is now very well established that yearly averaged temperatures are increasing due to anthropogenic climate change. In the area of Galicia (NW Spain) this trend has also been determined. The main objective of this work is to assess actual and future trends of different extreme indices of temperature, which are of curcial importance for many impact studies. Station data for the study was provided by the CLIMA database of the regional government of Galicia (NW Spain). As direct GCM-output significantly underestimates the variance of daily surface temperature variables in NW Spain, these variables are obtained by applying a statistical downscaling technique (analog method), using 850hPa temperature and mean sea level pressure as combined predictors. The predictor fields have been extracted from three GCMs participating in the IPCC AR4 under A1, A1B and A2 scenarios. The definitions of the extreme indices have been taken from the joint CCl/CLIVAR/JCOMM Expert Team (ET) on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) This group has defined a set of standard extreme values to simplify intercomparisons of data from different regions of the world. For the temperatures in the period 1960-2006, results show a significant increase of the number of days with maximum temperatures above the 90th percentile. Furthermore, a significant decrease of the days with maximum temperatures below the 10th percentile has been found. The tendencies of minimum temperatures are reverse: less nights with minimum temperatures below 10th percentile, and more with minimum temperatures above 90th percentile. Those tendencies can be observed all over the year, but are more pronounced in summer. We have also calculated the relationship between the above mentioned extreme values and different teleconnection patterns appearing in the North Atlantic area. Results show that local tendencies are associated with trends of EA (Eastern Atlantic) and SCA (Scandinavian) patterns. NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) has also some relationship with these tendencies, but only related with cold days and nights in winter. The results of the applied statistical downscaling technique indicate that observed trends in maximum and minimum temperatures in NW Spain are expected to continue in the next decades because of anthropogenic climate change. The common tendency is that hot days increase while cold nights diminish all over the year. As expected, these tendencies change between different scenarios: they are more marked for A2 and A1B scenarios than for the for the B1 scenario. Moreover, the three models behave different under the same scenario, leaving a great uncertainty for the future. Nevertheless, we conclude that more frequent hot days, as well as an increasing probability of summertime heat waves are to be expected in the next decades. Cold days tend to diminish, decreasing the probability of wintertime cold waves and leaving a greater part of the area under study without frost days throughout the year.

Projected changes in climate extremes over Qatar and the Arabian Gulf region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kundeti, K.; Kanikicharla, K. K.; Al sulaiti, M.; Khulaifi, M.; Alboinin, N.; Kito, A.

2015-12-01

The climate of the State of Qatar and the adjacent region is dominated by subtropical dry, hot desert climate with low annual rainfall, very high temperatures in summer and a big difference between maximum and minimum temperatures, especially in the inland areas. The coastal areas are influenced by the Arabian Gulf, and have lower maximum, but higher minimum temperatures and a higher moisture percentage in the air. The global warming can have profound impact on the mean climate as well as extreme weather events over the Arabian Peninsula that may affect both natural and human systems significantly. Therefore, it is important to assess the future changes in the seasonal/annual mean of temperature and precipitation and also the extremes in temperature and wind events for a country like Qatar. This study assesses the performance of the Coupled Model Inter comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations in present and develops future climate scenarios. The changes in climate extremes are assessed for three future periods 2016-2035, 2046-2065 and 2080-2099 with respect to 1986-2005 (base line) under two RCPs (Representative Concentrate Pathways) - RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. We analyzed the projected changes in temperature and precipitation extremes using several indices including those that capture heat stress. The observations show an increase in warm extremes over many parts in this region that are generally well captured by the models. The results indicate a significant change in frequency and intensity of both temperature and precipitation extremes over many parts of this region which may have serious implications on human health, water resources and the onshore/offshore infrastructure in this region. Data from a high-resolution (20km) AGCM simulation from Meteorological Research Institute of Japan Meteorological Agency for the present (1979-2003) and a future time slice (2075-2099) corresponding to RCP8.5 have also been utilized to assess the impact of climate change on regional climate extremes as well. The scenarios generated with the high-resolution model simulation were compared with the coarse resolution CMIP5 model scenarios to identify region specific features that might be better resolved in the former simulation.

AgMIP Regional Activities in a Global Framework: The Brazil Experience

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Assad, Eduardo D.; Marin, Fabio R.; Valdivia, Roberto O.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia E.

2012-01-01

Climate variability and change are projected to increate the frequency of extreme high-temperature events, floods, and droughts, which can lead to subsequent changes in soil moister in many locations (Alexandrov and Hoogenboom, 2000). In Brazil, observations reveal a tendency for increasing frequency of extreme rainfall events particularly in south Brazil (Alexander et al., 2006; Carvalho et al., 2014; Groissman et al., 2005), as well as projections for increasing extremes in both maximum and minimum temperatures and high spatial variability for rainfall under the IPCC SRES A2 and B2 scenarios (Marengo et al., 2009).

A three-stage hybrid model for regionalization, trends and sensitivity analyses of temperature anomalies in China from 1966 to 2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Feifei; Yang, XiaoHua; Shen, Zhenyao

2018-06-01

Temperature anomalies have received increasing attention due to their potentially severe impacts on ecosystems, economy and human health. To facilitate objective regionalization and examine regional temperature anomalies, a three-stage hybrid model with stages of regionalization, trends and sensitivity analyses was developed. Annual mean and extreme temperatures were analyzed using the daily data collected from 537 stations in China from 1966 to 2015, including the annual mean, minimum and maximum temperatures (Tm, TNm and TXm) as well as the extreme minimum and maximum temperatures (TNe and TXe). The results showed the following: (1) subregions with coherent temperature changes were identified using the rotated empirical orthogonal function analysis and K-means clustering algorithm. The numbers of subregions were 6, 7, 8, 9 and 8 for Tm, TNm, TXm, TNe and TXe, respectively. (2) Significant increases in temperature were observed in most regions of China from 1966 to 2015, although warming slowed down over the last decade. This warming primarily featured a remarkable increase in its minimum temperature. For Tm and TNm, 95% of the stations showed a significant upward trend at the 99% confidence level. TNe increased the fastest, at a rate of 0.56 °C/decade, whereas 21% of the stations in TXe showed a downward trend. (3) The mean temperatures (Tm, TNm and TXm) in the high-latitude regions increased more quickly than those in the low-latitude regions. The maximum temperature increased significantly at high elevations, whereas the minimum temperature increased greatly at middle-low elevations. The most pronounced warming occurred in eastern China in TNe and northwestern China in TXe, with mean elevations of 51 m and 2098 m, respectively. A cooling trend in TXe was observed at the northwestern end of China. The warming rate in TNe varied the most among the subregions (0.63 °C/decade).

Trends in extremes of temperature, dew point, and precipitation from long instrumental series from central Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kürbis, K.; Mudelsee, M.; Tetzlaff, G.; Brázdil, R.

2009-09-01

For the analysis of trends in weather extremes, we introduce a diagnostic index variable, the exceedance product, which combines intensity and frequency of extremes. We separate trends in higher moments from trends in mean or standard deviation and use bootstrap resampling to evaluate statistical significances. The application of the concept of the exceedance product to daily meteorological time series from Potsdam (1893 to 2005) and Prague-Klementinum (1775 to 2004) reveals that extremely cold winters occurred only until the mid-20th century, whereas warm winters show upward trends. These changes were significant in higher moments of the temperature distribution. In contrast, trends in summer temperature extremes (e.g., the 2003 European heatwave) can be explained by linear changes in mean or standard deviation. While precipitation at Potsdam does not show pronounced trends, dew point does exhibit a change from maximum extremes during the 1960s to minimum extremes during the 1970s.

The effect of future reduction in aerosol emissions on climate extremes in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Zhili; Lin, Lei; Yang, Meilin; Xu, Yangyang

2016-11-01

This study investigates the effect of reduced aerosol emissions on projected temperature and precipitation extremes in China during 2031-2050 and 2081-2100 relative to present-day conditions using the daily data output from the Community Earth System Model ensemble simulations under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 with an applied aerosol reduction and RCP8.5 with fixed 2005 aerosol emissions (RCP8.5_FixA) scenarios. The reduced aerosol emissions of RCP8.5 magnify the warming effect due to greenhouse gases (GHG) and lead to significant increases in temperature extremes, such as the maximum of daily maximum temperature (TXx), minimum of daily minimum temperature (TNn), and tropical nights (TR), and precipitation extremes, such as the maximum 5-day precipitation amount, number of heavy precipitation days, and annual total precipitation from days ˃95th percentile, in China. The projected TXx, TNn, and TR averaged over China increase by 1.2 ± 0.2 °C (4.4 ± 0.2 °C), 1.3 ± 0.2 °C (4.8 ± 0.2 °C), and 8.2 ± 1.2 (30.9 ± 1.4) days, respectively, during 2031-2050 (2081-2100) under the RCP8.5_FixA scenario, whereas the corresponding values are 1.6 ± 0.1 °C (5.3 ± 0.2 °C), 1.8 ± 0.2 °C (5.6 ± 0.2 °C), and 11.9 ± 0.9 (38.4 ± 1.0) days under the RCP8.5 scenario. Nationally averaged increases in all of those extreme precipitation indices above due to the aerosol reduction account for more than 30 % of the extreme precipitation increases under the RCP8.5 scenario. Moreover, the aerosol reduction leads to decreases in frost days and consecutive dry days averaged over China. There are great regional differences in changes of climate extremes caused by the aerosol reduction. When normalized by global mean surface temperature changes, aerosols have larger effects on temperature and precipitation extremes over China than GHG.

Negative ion source with low temperature transverse divergence optical system

DOEpatents

Whealton, John H.; Stirling, William L.

1986-01-01

A negative ion source is provided which has extremely low transverse divergence as a result of a unique ion focusing system in which the focal line of an ion beam emanating from an elongated, concave converter surface is outside of the ion exit slit of the source and the path of the exiting ions. The beam source operates with a minimum ion temperature which makes possible a sharply focused (extremely low transverse divergence) ribbon like negative ion beam.

Negative ion source with low temperature transverse divergence optical system

DOEpatents

Whealton, J.H.; Stirling, W.L.

1985-03-04

A negative ion source is provided which has extremely low transverse divergence as a result of a unique ion focusing system in which the focal line of an ion beam emanating from an elongated, concave converter surface is outside of the ion exit slit of the source and the path of the exiting ions. The beam source operates with a minimum ion temperature which makes possible a sharply focused (extremely low transverse divergence) ribbon like negative ion beam.

Miscanthus Establishment and Overwintering in the Midwest USA: A Regional Modeling Study of Crop Residue Management on Critical Minimum Soil Temperatures

PubMed Central

Kucharik, Christopher J.; VanLoocke, Andy; Lenters, John D.; Motew, Melissa M.

2013-01-01

Miscanthus is an intriguing cellulosic bioenergy feedstock because its aboveground productivity is high for low amounts of agrochemical inputs, but soil temperatures below −3.5°C could threaten successful cultivation in temperate regions. We used a combination of observed soil temperatures and the Agro-IBIS model to investigate how strategic residue management could reduce the risk of rhizome threatening soil temperatures. This objective was addressed using a historical (1978–2007) reconstruction of extreme minimum 10 cm soil temperatures experienced across the Midwest US and model sensitivity studies that quantified the impact of crop residue on soil temperatures. At observation sites and for simulations that had bare soil, two critical soil temperature thresholds (50% rhizome winterkill at −3.5°C and −6.0°C for different Miscanthus genotypes) were reached at rhizome planting depth (10 cm) over large geographic areas. The coldest average annual extreme 10 cm soil temperatures were between −8°C to −11°C across North Dakota, South Dakota, and Minnesota. Large portions of the region experienced 10 cm soil temperatures below −3.5°C in 75% or greater for all years, and portions of North and South Dakota, Minnesota, and Wisconsin experienced soil temperatures below −6.0°C in 50–60% of all years. For simulated management options that established varied thicknesses (1–5 cm) of miscanthus straw following harvest, extreme minimum soil temperatures increased by 2.5°C to 6°C compared to bare soil, with the greatest warming associated with thicker residue layers. While the likelihood of 10 cm soil temperatures reaching −3.5°C was greatly reduced with 2–5 cm of surface residue, portions of the Dakotas, Nebraska, Minnesota, and Wisconsin still experienced temperatures colder than −3.5°C in 50–80% of all years. Nonetheless, strategic residue management could help increase the likelihood of overwintering of miscanthus rhizomes in the first few years after establishment, although low productivity and biomass availability during these early stages could hamper such efforts. PMID:23844244

Spatial distribution of unidirectional trends in temperature and temperature extremes in Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khan, Najeebullah; Shahid, Shamsuddin; Ismail, Tarmizi bin; Wang, Xiao-Jun

2018-06-01

Pakistan is one of the most vulnerable countries of the world to temperature extremes due to its predominant arid climate and geographic location in the fast temperature rising zone. Spatial distribution of the trends in annual and seasonal temperatures and temperature extremes over Pakistan has been assessed in this study. The gauge-based gridded daily temperature data of Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST) having a spatial resolution of 1° × 1° was used for the assessment of trends over the period 1960-2013 using modified Mann-Kendall test (MMK), which can discriminate the multi-decadal oscillatory variations from secular trends. The results show an increase in the annual average of daily maximum and minimum temperatures in 92 and 99% area of Pakistan respectively at 95% level of confidence. The annual temperature is increasing faster in southern high-temperature region compared to other parts of the country. The minimum temperature is rising faster (0.17-0.37 °C/decade) compared to maximum temperature (0.17-0.29 °C/decade) and therefore declination of diurnal temperature range (DTR) (- 0.15 to - 0.08 °C/decade) in some regions. The annual numbers of both hot and cold days are increasing in whole Pakistan except in the northern sub-Himalayan region. Heat waves are on the rise, especially in the hot Sindh plains and the Southern coastal region, while the cold waves are becoming lesser in the northern cold region. Obtained results contradict with the findings of previous studies on temperature trends, which indicate the need for reassessment of climatic trends in Pakistan using the MMK test to understand the anthropogenic impacts of climate change.

Spatiotemporal extremes of temperature and precipitation during 1960-2015 in the Yangtze River Basin (China) and impacts on vegetation dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cui, Lifang; Wang, Lunche; Qu, Sai; Singh, Ramesh P.; Lai, Zhongping; Yao, Rui

2018-05-01

Recently, extreme climate variation has been studied in different parts of the world, and the present study aims to study the impacts of climate extremes on vegetation. In this study, we analyzed the spatiotemporal variations of temperature and precipitation extremes during 1960-2015 in the Yangtze River Basin (YRB) using the Mann-Kendall (MK) test with Sen's slope estimator and kriging interpolation method based on daily precipitation (P), maximum temperature (T max), and minimum temperature (T min). We also analyzed the vegetation dynamics in the YRB during 1982-2015 using Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) datasets and investigated the relationship between temperature and precipitation extremes and NDVI using Pearson correlation coefficients. The results showed a pronounced increase in the annual mean maximum temperature (T nav) and mean minimum temperature (T xav) at the rate of 0.23 °C/10 years and 0.15 °C/10 years, respectively, during 1960-2015. In addition, the occurrence of warm days and warm nights shows increasing trends at the rate of 1.36 days/10 years and 1.70 days/10 years, respectively, while cold days and cold nights decreased at the rate of 1.09 days/10 years and 2.69 days/10 years, respectively, during 1960-2015. The precipitation extremes, such as very wet days (R95, the 95th percentile of daily precipitation events), very wet day precipitation (R95p, the number of days with rainfall above R95), rainstorm (R50, the number of days with rainfall above 50 mm), and maximum 1-day precipitation (RX1day), all show pronounced increasing trends during 1960-2015. In general, annual mean NDVI over the whole YRB increased at the rate of 0.01/10 years during 1982-2015, with an increasing transition around 1994. Spatially, annual mean NDVI increased in the northern, eastern, and parts of southwestern YRB, while it decreased in the YRD and parts of southern YRB during 1982-2015. The correlation coefficients showed that annual mean NDVI was closely correlated with temperature extremes during 1982-2015 and 1995-2015, but no significant correlation with precipitation extremes was observed. However, the decrease in NDVI was correlated with increasing R95p and R95 during 1982-1994.

Annual minimum temperature variations in early 21st century in Punjab, Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jahangir, Misbah; Maria Ali, Syeda; Khalid, Bushra

2016-01-01

Climate change is a key emerging threat to the global environment. It imposes long lasting impacts both at regional and national level. In the recent era, global warming and extreme temperatures have drawn great interest to the scientific community. As in a past century considerable increase in global surface temperatures have been observed and predictions revealed that it will continue in the future. In this regard, current study mainly focused on analysis of regional climatic change (annual minimum temperature trends and its correlation with land surface temperatures in the early 21st century in Punjab) for a period of 1979-2013. The projected model data European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) has been used for eight Tehsils of Punjab i.e., annual minimum temperatures and annual seasonal temperatures. Trend analysis of annual minimum and annual seasonal temperature in (Khushab, Noorpur, Sargodha, Bhalwal, Sahiwal, Shahpur, Sillanwali and Chinoit) tehsils of Punjab was carried out by Regression analysis and Mann-Kendall test. Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM) data was used in comparison with Model data for the month of May from the years 2000, 2009 and 2010. Results showed that no significant trends were observed in annual minimum temperature. A significant change was observed in Noorpur, Bhalwal, Shahpur, Sillanwali, Sahiwal, Chinoit and Sargodha tehsils during spring season, which indicated that this particular season was a transient period of time.

The effect of extreme cold temperatures on the risk of death in the two major Portuguese cities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Antunes, Liliana; Silva, Susana Pereira; Marques, Jorge; Nunes, Baltazar; Antunes, Sílvia

2017-01-01

It is well known that meteorological conditions influence the comfort and human health. Southern European countries, including Portugal, show the highest mortality rates during winter, but the effects of extreme cold temperatures in Portugal have never been estimated. The objective of this study was the estimation of the effect of extreme cold temperatures on the risk of death in Lisbon and Oporto, aiming the production of scientific evidence for the development of a real-time health warning system. Poisson regression models combined with distributed lag non-linear models were applied to assess the exposure-response relation and lag patterns of the association between minimum temperature and all-causes mortality and between minimum temperature and circulatory and respiratory system diseases mortality from 1992 to 2012, stratified by age, for the period from November to March. The analysis was adjusted for over dispersion and population size, for the confounding effect of influenza epidemics and controlled for long-term trend, seasonality and day of the week. Results showed that the effect of cold temperatures in mortality was not immediate, presenting a 1-2-day delay, reaching maximum increased risk of death after 6-7 days and lasting up to 20-28 days. The overall effect was generally higher and more persistent in Lisbon than in Oporto, particularly for circulatory and respiratory mortality and for the elderly. Exposure to cold temperatures is an important public health problem for a relevant part of the Portuguese population, in particular in Lisbon.

Extremely cold and hot temperatures increase the risk of ischaemic heart disease mortality: epidemiological evidence from China.

PubMed

Guo, Yuming; Li, Shanshan; Zhang, Yanshen; Armstrong, Ben; Jaakkola, Jouni J K; Tong, Shilu; Pan, Xiaochuan

2013-02-01

To examine the effects of extremely cold and hot temperatures on ischaemic heart disease (IHD) mortality in five cities (Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Wuhan and Guangzhou) in China; and to examine the time relationships between cold and hot temperatures and IHD mortality for each city. A negative binomial regression model combined with a distributed lag non-linear model was used to examine city-specific temperature effects on IHD mortality up to 20 lag days. A meta-analysis was used to pool the cold effects and hot effects across the five cities. 16 559 IHD deaths were monitored by a sentinel surveillance system in five cities during 2004-2008. The relationships between temperature and IHD mortality were non-linear in all five cities. The minimum-mortality temperatures in northern cities were lower than in southern cities. In Beijing, Tianjin and Guangzhou, the effects of extremely cold temperatures were delayed, while Shanghai and Wuhan had immediate cold effects. The effects of extremely hot temperatures appeared immediately in all the cities except Wuhan. Meta-analysis showed that IHD mortality increased 48% at the 1st percentile of temperature (extremely cold temperature) compared with the 10th percentile, while IHD mortality increased 18% at the 99th percentile of temperature (extremely hot temperature) compared with the 90th percentile. Results indicate that both extremely cold and hot temperatures increase IHD mortality in China. Each city has its characteristics of heat effects on IHD mortality. The policy for response to climate change should consider local climate-IHD mortality relationships.

Trends in mean and extreme temperatures over Ibadan, Southwest Nigeria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abatan, Abayomi A.; Osayomi, Tolulope; Akande, Samuel O.; Abiodun, Babatunde J.; Gutowski, William J.

2018-02-01

In recent times, Ibadan has been experiencing an increase in mean temperature which appears to be linked to anthropogenic global warming. Previous studies have indicated that the warming may be accompanied by changes in extreme events. This study examined trends in mean and extreme temperatures over Ibadan during 1971-2012 at annual and seasonal scales using the high-resolution atmospheric reanalysis from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) twentieth-century dataset (ERA-20C) at 15 grid points. Magnitudes of linear trends in mean and extreme temperatures and their statistical significance were calculated using ordinary least squares and Mann-Kendall rank statistic tests. The results show that Ibadan has witnessed an increase in annual and seasonal mean minimum temperatures. The annual mean maximum temperature exhibited a non-significant decline in most parts of Ibadan. While trends in cold extremes at annual scale show warming, trends in coldest night show greater warming than in coldest day. At the seasonal scale, we found that Ibadan experienced a mix of positive and negative trends in absolute extreme temperature indices. However, cold extremes show the largest trend magnitudes, with trends in coldest night showing the greatest warming. The results compare well with those obtained from a limited number of stations. This study should inform decision-makers and urban planners about the ongoing warming in Ibadan.

Beale AFB, Marysville, California Revised Uniform Summary of Surface Weather Observations (RUSSWO) Parts A-F.

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-08-19

versus Visibility; Sky Cover; ( E ) Psychrometric Summaries (daily maximum and minimum temperatures, extreme maximum and minimum temperatures, psychrometric...frequency of occurance or cumulative percentage frequency of occuring tables. UNCLASSIFIED SCUPU)?y CLASaIFICATION OF THIS PAGE(Waht Dat E moli A - I...i,. -t’ r .corvi or QL.;V.A I-)tic ai t r’& iolL; recUl’d Et. Lxki-dGiuI ii.Trly ii~tervais. DAILY OBSERVATIONS S- t tr’ o. re .;,:cLt e , !’ru: at

Extreme low temperature tolerance in woody plants

Treesearch

G. Richard Strimbeck; Paul G. Schaberg; Carl G. Fossdal; Wolfgang P. Schroder; Trygve D. Kjellsen

2015-01-01

Woody plants in boreal to arctic environments and high mountains survive prolonged exposure to temperatures below -40°C and minimum temperatures below -60°C, and laboratory tests show that many of these species can also survive immersion in liquid nitrogen at -196°C. Studies of biochemical changes that occur during acclimation, including recent proteomic and...

High Tensile Strength Amalgams for In-Space Fabrication and Repair

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grugel, Richard N.

2006-01-01

Amalgams are well known for their use in dental practice as a tooth filling material. They have a number of useful attributes that include room temperature fabrication, corrosion resistance, dimensional stability, and very good compressive strength. These properties well serve dental needs but, unfortunately, amalgams have extremely poor tensile strength, a feature that severely limits other potential applications. Improved material properties (strength and temperature) of amalgams may have application to the freeform fabrication of repairs or parts that might be necessary during an extended space mission. Advantages would include, but are not limited to: the ability to produce complex parts, a minimum number of processing steps, minimum crew interaction, high yield - minimum wasted material, reduced gravity compatibility, minimum final finishing, safety, and minimum power consumption. The work presented here shows how the properties of amalgams can be improved by changing particle geometries in conjunction with novel engineering metals.

Contribution of urbanization to the increase of extreme heat events in an urban agglomeration in east China: Urbanization and the Increase of EHEs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yang, Xuchao; Ruby Leung, L.; Zhao, Naizhuo

The urban agglomeration of Yangtze River Delta (YRD) is emblematic of China’s rapid urbanization during the past decades. Based on homogenized daily maximum and minimum temperature data, the contributions of urbanization to trends of extreme temperature indices (ETIs) during summer in YRD are evaluated. Dynamically classifying the observational stations into urban and rural areas, this study presents unexplored changes in temperature extremes during the past four decades in the YRD region and quantifies the amplification of the positive trends in ETIs by the urban heat island effect. Overall, urbanization contributes to more than one third in the increase of intensitymore » of extreme heat events in the region, which is comparable to the contribution of greenhouse gases. Compared to rural stations, more notable shifts to the right in the probability distribution of temperature and ETIs were observed in urban stations.« less

Variability of temperature properties over Kenya based on observed and reanalyzed datasets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ongoma, Victor; Chen, Haishan; Gao, Chujie; Sagero, Phillip Obaigwa

2017-08-01

Updated information on trends of climate extremes is central in the assessment of climate change impacts. This work examines the trends in mean, diurnal temperature range (DTR), maximum and minimum temperatures, 1951-2012 and the recent (1981-2010) extreme temperature events over Kenya. The study utilized daily observed and reanalyzed monthly mean, minimum, and maximum temperature datasets. The analysis was carried out based on a set of nine indices recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). The trend of the mean and the extreme temperature was determined using Mann-Kendall rank test, linear regression analysis, and Sen's slope estimator. December-February (DJF) season records high temperature while June-August (JJA) experiences the least temperature. The observed rate of warming is + 0.15 °C/decade. However, DTR does not show notable annual trend. Both seasons show an overall warming trend since the early 1970s with abrupt and significant changes happening around the early 1990s. The warming is more significant in the highland regions as compared to their lowland counterparts. There is increase variance in temperature. The percentage of warm days and warm nights is observed to increase, a further affirmation of warming. This work is a synoptic scale study that exemplifies how seasonal and decadal analyses, together with the annual assessments, are important in the understanding of the temperature variability which is vital in vulnerability and adaptation studies at a local/regional scale. However, following the quality of observed data used herein, there remains need for further studies on the subject using longer and more data to avoid generalizations made in this study.

Temperature histories of commercial flights at severe conditions from GASP data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jasperson, W. H.; Nastrom, G. D.

1983-01-01

The thermal environment of commercial aircraft from a data set gathered during the Global Atmospheric Sampling Program (GASP) is studied. The data set covers a four-year period of measurements. The report presents plots of airplane location and speed and atmospheric temperature as functions of elapsed time for 35 extreme-condition flights, selected by minimum values of several temperature parameters. One of these parameters, the severity factor, is an approximation of the in-flight wing-tank temperature. Representative low-severity-factor flight histories may be useful for actual temperature-profile inputs to design and research studies. Comparison of the GASP atmospheric temperatures to interpolated temperatures from National Meteorological Center and Global Weather Central analysis fields shows that the analysis temperatures are slightly biased toward warmer than actual temperatures, particularly over oceans and at extreme conditions.

Extreme Brightness Temperatures and Refractive Substructure in 3C273 with RadioAstron

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, Michael D.; Kovalev, Yuri Y.; Gwinn, Carl R.; Gurvits, Leonid I.; Narayan, Ramesh; Macquart, Jean-Pierre; Jauncey, David L.; Voitsik, Peter A.; Anderson, James M.; Sokolovsky, Kirill V.; Lisakov, Mikhail M.

2016-03-01

Earth-space interferometry with RadioAstron provides the highest direct angular resolution ever achieved in astronomy at any wavelength. RadioAstron detections of the classic quasar 3C 273 on interferometric baselines up to 171,000 km suggest brightness temperatures exceeding expected limits from the “inverse-Compton catastrophe” by two orders of magnitude. We show that at 18 cm, these estimates most likely arise from refractive substructure introduced by scattering in the interstellar medium. We use the scattering properties to estimate an intrinsic brightness temperature of 7× {10}12 {{K}}, which is consistent with expected theoretical limits, but which is ˜15 times lower than estimates that neglect substructure. At 6.2 cm, the substructure influences the measured values appreciably but gives an estimated brightness temperature that is comparable to models that do not account for the substructure. At 1.35 {{cm}}, the substructure does not affect the extremely high inferred brightness temperatures, in excess of {10}13 {{K}}. We also demonstrate that for a source having a Gaussian surface brightness profile, a single long-baseline estimate of refractive substructure determines an absolute minimum brightness temperature, if the scattering properties along a given line of sight are known, and that this minimum accurately approximates the apparent brightness temperature over a wide range of total flux densities.

Detection of the relationship between peak temperature and extreme precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Y.; Liu, J.; Zhiyong, Y.

2017-12-01

Under the background of climate change and human activities, the characteristics and pattern of precipitation have changed significantly in many regions. As the political and cultural center of China, the structure and character of precipitation in Jingjinji District has varied dramatically in recent years. In this paper, the daily precipitation data throughout the period 1960-2013 are selected for analyzing the spatial-temporal variability of precipitation. The results indicate that the frequency and intensity of precipitation presents an increasing trend. Based on the precipitation data, the maximum, minimum and mean precipitation in different temporal and spatial scales is calculated respectively. The temporal and spatial variation of temperature is obtained by using statistical methods. The relationship between temperature and precipitation in different range is analyzed. The curve relates daily precipitation extremes with local temperatures has a peak structure, increasing at the low-medium range of temperature variations but decreasing at high temperatures. The relationship between extreme precipitation is stronger in downtown than that in suburbs.

Trends in extreme daily temperatures and humidex index in the United Arab Emirates over 1948-2014.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, H. W.; Ouarda, T.

2015-12-01

This study deals with the analysis of the characteristics of extreme temperature events in the Middle East, using NCEP reanalysis gridded data, for the summer (May-October) and winter (November-April) seasons. Trends in the occurrences of three types of heat spells during 1948-2014 are studied by both Linear Regression (LR) and Mann-Kendall (MK) test. Changes in the diurnal temperature range (DTR) are also investigated. To better understand the effects of heat spells on public health, the Humidex, a combination index of ambient temperature and relative humidity, is also used. Using percentile threshold, temperature (Humidex) Type-A and Type-B heat spells are defined respectively by daily maximum and minimum temperature (Humidex). Type-C heat spells are defined as the joint occurrence of Type-A and Type-B heat spells at the same time. In the Middle East, it is found that no coherent trend in temperature Type-A heat spells is observed. However, the occurrences of temperature Type-B and C heat spells have consistently increased since 1948. For Humidex heat spells, coherently increased activities of all three types of heat spells are observed in the area. During the summer, the magnitude of the positive trends in Humidex heat spells are generally stronger than temperature heat spells. More than half of the locations in the area show significantly negative DTR trends in the summer, but the trends vary according to the region in the winter. Annual mean temperature has increased an average by 0.5°C, but it is mainly associated with the daily minimum temperature which has warmed up by 0.84°C.Daily maximum temperature showed no significant trends. The warming is hence stronger in minimum temperatures than in maximum temperatures resulting in a decrease in DTR by 0.16 °C per decade. This study indicates hence that the UAE has not become hotter, but it has become less cold during 1948 to 2014.

Climate Impacts on Extreme Energy Consumption of Different Types of Buildings

PubMed Central

Li, Mingcai; Shi, Jun; Guo, Jun; Cao, Jingfu; Niu, Jide; Xiong, Mingming

2015-01-01

Exploring changes of building energy consumption and its relationships with climate can provide basis for energy-saving and carbon emission reduction. Heating and cooling energy consumption of different types of buildings during 1981-2010 in Tianjin city, was simulated by using TRNSYS software. Daily or hourly extreme energy consumption was determined by percentile methods, and the climate impact on extreme energy consumption was analyzed. The results showed that days of extreme heating consumption showed apparent decrease during the recent 30 years for residential and large venue buildings, whereas days of extreme cooling consumption increased in large venue building. No significant variations were found for the days of extreme energy consumption for commercial building, although a decreasing trend in extreme heating energy consumption. Daily extreme energy consumption for large venue building had no relationship with climate parameters, whereas extreme energy consumption for commercial and residential buildings was related to various climate parameters. Further multiple regression analysis suggested heating energy consumption for commercial building was affected by maximum temperature, dry bulb temperature, solar radiation and minimum temperature, which together can explain 71.5 % of the variation of the daily extreme heating energy consumption. The daily extreme cooling energy consumption for commercial building was only related to the wet bulb temperature (R2= 0.382). The daily extreme heating energy consumption for residential building was affected by 4 climate parameters, but the dry bulb temperature had the main impact. The impacts of climate on hourly extreme heating energy consumption has a 1-3 hour delay in all three types of buildings, but no delay was found in the impacts of climate on hourly extreme cooling energy consumption for the selected buildings. PMID:25923205

Climate impacts on extreme energy consumption of different types of buildings.

PubMed

Li, Mingcai; Shi, Jun; Guo, Jun; Cao, Jingfu; Niu, Jide; Xiong, Mingming

2015-01-01

Exploring changes of building energy consumption and its relationships with climate can provide basis for energy-saving and carbon emission reduction. Heating and cooling energy consumption of different types of buildings during 1981-2010 in Tianjin city, was simulated by using TRNSYS software. Daily or hourly extreme energy consumption was determined by percentile methods, and the climate impact on extreme energy consumption was analyzed. The results showed that days of extreme heating consumption showed apparent decrease during the recent 30 years for residential and large venue buildings, whereas days of extreme cooling consumption increased in large venue building. No significant variations were found for the days of extreme energy consumption for commercial building, although a decreasing trend in extreme heating energy consumption. Daily extreme energy consumption for large venue building had no relationship with climate parameters, whereas extreme energy consumption for commercial and residential buildings was related to various climate parameters. Further multiple regression analysis suggested heating energy consumption for commercial building was affected by maximum temperature, dry bulb temperature, solar radiation and minimum temperature, which together can explain 71.5 % of the variation of the daily extreme heating energy consumption. The daily extreme cooling energy consumption for commercial building was only related to the wet bulb temperature (R2= 0.382). The daily extreme heating energy consumption for residential building was affected by 4 climate parameters, but the dry bulb temperature had the main impact. The impacts of climate on hourly extreme heating energy consumption has a 1-3 hour delay in all three types of buildings, but no delay was found in the impacts of climate on hourly extreme cooling energy consumption for the selected buildings.

Response of vegetation NDVI to climatic extremes in the arid region of Central Asia: a case study in Xinjiang, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yao, Junqiang; Chen, Yaning; Zhao, Yong; Mao, Weiyi; Xu, Xinbing; Liu, Yang; Yang, Qing

2018-02-01

Observed data showed the climatic transition from warm-dry to warm-wet in Xinjiang during the past 30 years and will probably affect vegetation dynamics. Here, we analyze the interannual change of vegetation index based on the satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) with temperature and precipitation extreme over the Xinjiang, using the 8-km NDVI third-generation (NDVI3g) from the Global Inventory Modelling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) from 1982 to 2010. Few previous studies analyzed the link between climate extremes and vegetation response. From the satellite-based results, annual NDVI significantly increased in the first two decades (1981-1998) and then decreased after 1998. We show that the NDVI decrease over the past decade may conjointly be triggered by the increases of temperature and precipitation extremes. The correlation analyses demonstrated that the trends of NDVI was close to the trend of extreme precipitation; that is, consecutive dry days (CDD) and torrential rainfall days (R24) positively correlated with NDVI during 1998-2010. For the temperature extreme, while the decreases of NDVI correlate positively with warmer mean minimum temperature ( Tnav), it correlates negatively with the number of warmest night days ( Rwn). The results suggest that the climatic extremes have possible negative effects on the ecosystem.

Using thermal limits to assess establishment of fish dispersing to high-latitude and high-elevation watersheds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dunmall, Karen M.; Mochnacz, Neil J.; Zimmerman, Christian E.; Lean, Charles; Reist, James D.

2016-01-01

Distributional shifts of biota to higher latitudes and elevations are presumably influenced by species-specific physiological tolerances related to warming temperatures. However, it is establishment rather than dispersal that may be limiting colonizations in these cold frontier areas. In freshwater ecosystems, perennial groundwater springs provide critical winter thermal refugia in these extreme environments. By reconciling the thermal characteristics of these refugia with the minimum thermal tolerances of life stages critical for establishment, we develop a strategy to focus broad projections of northward and upward range shifts to the specific habitats that are likely for establishments. We evaluate this strategy using chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) and pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) that seem poised to colonize Arctic watersheds. Stream habitats with a minimum temperature of 4 °C during spawning and temperatures above 2 °C during egg incubation were most vulnerable to establishments by chum and pink salmon. This strategy will improve modelling forecasts of range shifts for cold freshwater habitats and focus proactive efforts to conserve both newly emerging fisheries and native species at northern and upper distributional extremes.

Oxygen and Temperature Effects on Vertically Migrating Animals in Oxygen Minimum Zones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seibel, B.

2016-02-01

Large populations of oceanic nekton and zooplankton undergo daily migrations from shallow water at night to depths greater than 200 m during the daytime. In some regions, these migrations cross extreme gradients of temperature, oxygen and carbon dioxide. Oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) are extensive and characterized by deep-water (100-800 m) oxygen partial pressures that would be lethal to most marine organisms, yet are tolerated by vertical migrators. Climate change is predicted to further deplete oxygen, and measurable reductions in oxygen have already been documented in some regions. Increases in shallow water temperature and carbon dioxide are occurring simultaneously. Oxygen levels and temperature are important drivers of biodiversity and distribution, and documented changes in community structure and function are reportedly associated with OMZ expansion and warming. Here I answer fundamental questions concerning zooplankton distributions, adaptations, and functions in oxygen minimum zones. In particular I report that metabolic suppression is a common strategy that facilitates diel occupancy of extreme hypoxia in many oceanic taxa. Anaerobic metabolic pathways play a minimal role in compensating for reduced aerobic ATP production. Numerous epigenetic mechanisms lead to reductions in energetically costly cellular processes, such as transcription and translation. Total metabolism is reduced by 50% or more during exposure to levels of hypoxia that characterize the daytime habitat for most vertically-migrating zooplankton. I further show that many migrators approach their upper thermal maximum in shallow water at night. Thus expanding OMZs and global warming may together compress the habitable depth range for many species.

Trends in rainfall and temperature extremes in Morocco

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khomsi, K.; Mahe, G.; Tramblay, Y.; Sinan, M.; Snoussi, M.

2015-02-01

In Morocco, socioeconomic fields are vulnerable to weather extreme events. This work aims to analyze the frequency and the trends of temperature and rainfall extreme events in two contrasted Moroccan regions (the Tensift in the semi-arid South, and the Bouregreg in the sub-humid North), during the second half of the 20th century. This study considers long time series of daily extreme temperatures and rainfall, recorded in the stations of Marrakech and Safi for the Tensift region, and Kasba-Tadla and Rabat-Sale for the Bouregreg region, data from four other stations (Tanger, Fes, Agadir and Ouarzazate) from outside the regions were added. Extremes are defined by using as thresholds the 1st, 5th, 90th, 95th, and 99th percentiles. Results show upward trends in maximum and minimum temperatures of both regions and no generalized trends in rainfall amounts. Changes in cold events are larger than those for warm events, and the number of very cold events decrease significantly in the whole studied area. The southern region is the most affected with the changes of the temperature regime. Most of the trends found in rainfall heavy events are positive with weak magnitudes even though no statistically significant generalized trends could be identified during both seasons.

Nest temperature fluctuations in a cavity nester, the southern ground-hornbill.

PubMed

Combrink, L; Combrink, H J; Botha, A J; Downs, C T

2017-05-01

Southern ground-hornbills Bucorvus leadbeateri inhabit savanna and bushveld regions of South Africa. They nest in the austral summer, which coincides with the wet season and hottest daytime temperatures in the region. They are secondary cavity nesters and typically nest in large cavities in trees, cliffs and earth banks, but readily use artificial nest boxes. Southern ground-hornbills are listed as Endangered in South Africa, with reintroductions into suitable areas highlighted as a viable conservation intervention for the species. Nest microclimate, and the possible implications this may have for the breeding biology of southern ground-hornbills, have never been investigated. We used temperature dataloggers to record nest cavity temperature and ambient temperature for one artificial and 11 natural southern ground-hornbill tree cavity nests combined, spanning two breeding seasons. Mean hourly nest temperature, as well as mean minimum and mean maximum nest temperature, differed significantly between southern ground-hornbill nests in both breeding seasons. Mean nest temperature also differed significantly from mean ambient temperature for both seasons. Natural nest cavities provided a buffer against the ambient temperature fluctuations. The artificial nest provided little insulation against temperature extremes, being warmer and cooler than the maximum and minimum local ambient temperatures, respectively. Nest cavity temperature was not found to have an influence on the breeding success of the southern ground-hornbill groups investigated in this study. These results have potentially important implications for southern ground-hornbill conservation and artificial nest design, as they suggest that the birds can tolerate greater nest cavity temperature extremes than previously thought. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessment of climate change downscaling and non-stationarity on the spatial pattern of a mangrove ecosystem in an arid coastal region of southern Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Etemadi, Halimeh; Samadi, S. Zahra; Sharifikia, Mohammad; Smoak, Joseph M.

2016-10-01

Mangrove wetlands exist in the transition zone between terrestrial and marine environments and have remarkable ecological and socio-economic value. This study uses climate change downscaling to address the question of non-stationarity influences on mangrove variations (expansion and contraction) within an arid coastal region. Our two-step approach includes downscaling models and uncertainty assessment, followed by a non-stationary and trend procedure using the Extreme Value Analysis (extRemes code). The Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) model along with two different general circulation model (GCMs) (MIRH and HadCM3) were used to downscale climatic variables during current (1968-2011) and future (2011-2030, 2045-2065, and 2080-2099) periods. Parametric and non-parametric bootstrapping uncertainty tests demonstrated that the LARS-WGS model skillfully downscaled climatic variables at the 95 % significance level. Downscaling results using MIHR model show that minimum and maximum temperatures will increase in the future (2011-2030, 2045-2065, and 2080-2099) during winter and summer in a range of +4.21 and +4.7 °C, and +3.62 and +3.55 °C, respectively. HadCM3 analysis also revealed an increase in minimum (˜+3.03 °C) and maximum (˜+3.3 °C) temperatures during wet and dry seasons. In addition, we examined how much mangrove area has changed during the past decades and, thus, if climate change non-stationarity impacts mangrove ecosystems. Our results using remote sensing techniques and the non-parametric Mann-Whitney two-sample test indicated a sharp decline in mangrove area during 1972,1987, and 1997 periods ( p value = 0.002). Non-stationary assessment using the generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions by including mangrove area as a covariate further indicated that the null hypothesis of the stationary climate (no trend) should be rejected due to the very low p values for precipitation ( p value = 0.0027), minimum ( p value = 0.000000029) and maximum ( p value = 0.00016) temperatures. Based on non-stationary analysis and an upward trend in downscaled temperature extremes, climate change may control mangrove development in the future.

Sea Ice

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Perovich, D.; Gerland, S.; Hendricks, S.; Meier, Walter N.; Nicolaus, M.; Richter-Menge, J.; Tschudi, M.

2013-01-01

During 2013, Arctic sea ice extent remained well below normal, but the September 2013 minimum extent was substantially higher than the record-breaking minimum in 2012. Nonetheless, the minimum was still much lower than normal and the long-term trend Arctic September extent is -13.7 per decade relative to the 1981-2010 average. The less extreme conditions this year compared to 2012 were due to cooler temperatures and wind patterns that favored retention of ice through the summer. Sea ice thickness and volume remained near record-low levels, though indications are of slightly thicker ice compared to the record low of 2012.

Spatiotemporal variation in heat-related out-of-hospital cardiac arrest during the summer in Japan.

PubMed

Onozuka, Daisuke; Hagihara, Akihito

2017-04-01

Although several studies have reported the impacts of extremely high temperature on cardiovascular diseases, few studies have investigated the spatiotemporal variation in the incidence of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) due to extremely high temperature in Japan. Daily OHCA data from 2005 to 2014 were acquired from all 47 prefectures of Japan. We used time-series Poisson regression analysis combined with a distributed lag non-linear model to assess the temporal variability in the effects of extremely high temperature on OHCA incidence in each prefecture, adjusted for time trends. Spatial variability in the relationships between extremely high temperature and OHCA between prefectures was estimated using a multivariate random-effects meta-analysis. We analyzed 166,496 OHCA cases of presumed cardiac origin occurring during the summer (June to September) that met the inclusion criteria. The minimum morbidity percentile (MMP) was the 51st percentile of temperature during the summer in Japan. The overall cumulative relative risk at the 99th percentile vs. the MMP over lags 0-10days was 1.21 (95% CI: 1.12-1.31). There was also a strong low temperature effect during the summer periods. No substantial difference in spatial or temporal variability was observed over the study period. Our study demonstrated spatiotemporal homogeneity in the risk of OHCA during periods of extremely high temperature between 2005 and 2014 in Japan. Our findings suggest that public health strategies for OHCA due to extremely high temperatures should be finely adjusted and should particularly account for the unchanging risk during the summer. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Universal inverse power-law distribution for temperature and rainfall in the UK region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Selvam, A. M.

2014-06-01

Meteorological parameters, such as temperature, rainfall, pressure, etc., exhibit selfsimilar space-time fractal fluctuations generic to dynamical systems in nature such as fluid flows, spread of forest fires, earthquakes, etc. The power spectra of fractal fluctuations display inverse power-law form signifying long-range correlations. A general systems theory model predicts universal inverse power-law form incorporating the golden mean for the fractal fluctuations. The model predicted distribution was compared with observed distribution of fractal fluctuations of all size scales (small, large and extreme values) in the historic month-wise temperature (maximum and minimum) and total rainfall for the four stations Oxford, Armagh, Durham and Stornoway in the UK region, for data periods ranging from 92 years to 160 years. For each parameter, the two cumulative probability distributions, namely cmax and cmin starting from respectively maximum and minimum data value were used. The results of the study show that (i) temperature distributions (maximum and minimum) follow model predicted distribution except for Stornowy, minimum temperature cmin. (ii) Rainfall distribution for cmin follow model predicted distribution for all the four stations. (iii) Rainfall distribution for cmax follows model predicted distribution for the two stations Armagh and Stornoway. The present study suggests that fractal fluctuations result from the superimposition of eddy continuum fluctuations.

Impacts of Model Bias on the Climate Change Signal and Effects of Weighted Ensembles of Regional Climate Model Simulations: A Case Study over Southern Québec, Canada

DOE PAGES

Eum, Hyung-Il; Gachon, Philippe; Laprise, René

2016-01-01

This study examined the impact of model biases on climate change signals for daily precipitation and for minimum and maximum temperatures. Through the use of multiple climate scenarios from 12 regional climate model simulations, the ensemble mean, and three synthetic simulations generated by a weighting procedure, we investigated intermodel seasonal climate change signals between current and future periods, for both median and extreme precipitation/temperature values. A significant dependence of seasonal climate change signals on the model biases over southern Québec in Canada was detected for temperatures, but not for precipitation. This suggests that the regional temperature change signal is affectedmore » by local processes. Seasonally, model bias affects future mean and extreme values in winter and summer. In addition, potentially large increases in future extremes of temperature and precipitation values were projected. For three synthetic scenarios, systematically less bias and a narrow range of mean change for all variables were projected compared to those of climate model simulations. In addition, synthetic scenarios were found to better capture the spatial variability of extreme cold temperatures than the ensemble mean scenario. Finally, these results indicate that the synthetic scenarios have greater potential to reduce the uncertainty of future climate projections and capture the spatial variability of extreme climate events.« less

Impacts of Model Bias on the Climate Change Signal and Effects of Weighted Ensembles of Regional Climate Model Simulations: A Case Study over Southern Québec, Canada

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Eum, Hyung-Il; Gachon, Philippe; Laprise, René

This study examined the impact of model biases on climate change signals for daily precipitation and for minimum and maximum temperatures. Through the use of multiple climate scenarios from 12 regional climate model simulations, the ensemble mean, and three synthetic simulations generated by a weighting procedure, we investigated intermodel seasonal climate change signals between current and future periods, for both median and extreme precipitation/temperature values. A significant dependence of seasonal climate change signals on the model biases over southern Québec in Canada was detected for temperatures, but not for precipitation. This suggests that the regional temperature change signal is affectedmore » by local processes. Seasonally, model bias affects future mean and extreme values in winter and summer. In addition, potentially large increases in future extremes of temperature and precipitation values were projected. For three synthetic scenarios, systematically less bias and a narrow range of mean change for all variables were projected compared to those of climate model simulations. In addition, synthetic scenarios were found to better capture the spatial variability of extreme cold temperatures than the ensemble mean scenario. Finally, these results indicate that the synthetic scenarios have greater potential to reduce the uncertainty of future climate projections and capture the spatial variability of extreme climate events.« less

Investigation of temperature and its indices under climate change scenarios over different regions of Rajasthan state in India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, Aditya; Sharma, Devesh; Panda, S. K.; Dubey, Swatantra Kumar; Pradhan, Rajani K.

2018-02-01

The ongoing increases in concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gas will most likely affect global climate for the rest of this century. Global warming brings a huge provocation to society and human beings. Single extreme events and increased climate variability have a greater impact than long-term changes in the mean of climatic variables. This study analyzed the temperature projections for Rajasthan state, India using data obtain from two General Circulation Models (GFCM21 and HadCM3) for three Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Range of Emission Scenarios (SRES) A1B, A2, and B1. A 30 years of maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperature for the period 1976-2005 has been obtained from India Meteorological Department (IMD) and by using LARS-WG5 to generate the long-term weather series for three different periods i.e. 2011-2040 (2025s), 2041-2070 (2055s), and 2071-2100 (2085s). Further to determine the changes in extreme temperature events, the data for the baseline period and the future periods was represented by eight extreme temperature indices. Results illustrate that an increase in minimum and the maximum temperature are observed in all the three future periods. The average mean temperature for base period and three future periods over four regions of Rajasthan was observed highest in region 3 which shows an incessantly increased in mean temperature about 2.6 °C i.e. north-east and north-west part of Rajasthan. Two GCMs depicts that the incessant temperatures may be increase in the future and future maximum temperature in all the seasons varies from 2.43 °C to 4.27 °C in the direction from south to north of Rajasthan during 2071-2100. While for minimum temperature, the range of temperature changes varies from 0.23 °C to 1.42 °C from south-east to north-west of Rajasthan during 2011-2040. In the temperature indices, the number of tropical nights (TR20), warmest day (TX90p), warmest night (TN90p) and summer days (SU25) is expected to increase during all three future periods. The maximum changes was found in region 2 (39.4 days) and region 1 (38.8 days) during the 2071-2100 periods, followed by 2041-2070 and 2011-2040. In all the four regions, the annual occurrence of Cold Spells Duration Indicator (CSDI) decreased and Warm Spells Duration Indicator (WSDI) increased for all three future periods.

Climatic Extremes and Food Grain Production in India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

A, A.; Mishra, V.

2015-12-01

Climate change is likely to affect food and water security in India. India has witnessed tremendous growth in its food production after the green revolution. However, during the recent decades the food grain yields were significantly affected by the extreme climate and weather events. Air temperature and associated extreme events (number of hot days and hot nights, heat waves) increased significantly during the last 50 years in the majority of India. More remarkably, a substantial increase in mean and extreme temperatures was observed during the winter season in India. On the other hand, India witnessed extreme flood and drought events that have become frequent during the past few decades. Extreme rainfall during the non-monsoon season adversely affected the food grain yields and results in tremendous losses in several parts of the country. Here we evaluate the changes in hydroclimatic extremes and its linkage with the food grain production in India. We use observed food grain yield data for the period of 1980-2012 at district level. We understand the linkages between food grain yield and crop phenology obtained from the high resolution leaf area index and NDVI datasets from satellites. We used long-term observed data of daily precipitation and maximum and minimum temperatures to evaluate changes in the extreme events. We use statistical models to develop relationships between crop yields, mean and extreme temperatures for various crops to understand the sensitivity of these crops towards changing climatic conditions. We find that some of the major crop types and predominant crop growing areas have shown a significant sensitivity towards changes in extreme climatic conditions in India.

Long-term comparison of the climate extremes variability in different climate types located in coastal and inland regions of Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghiami-Shamami, Fereshteh; Sabziparvar, Ali Akbar; Shinoda, Seirou

2018-06-01

The present study examined annually and seasonally trends in climate-based and location-based indices after detection of artificial change points and application of homogenization. Thirteen temperature and eight precipitation indices were generated at 27 meteorological stations over Iran during 1961-2012. The Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimator were applied for trend detection. Results revealed that almost all indices based on minimum temperature followed warmer conditions. Indicators based on minimum temperature showed less consistency with more cold and less warm events. Climate-based results for all extremes indicated semi-arid climate had the most warming events. Moreover, based on location-based results, inland areas showed the most signs of warming. Indices based on precipitation exhibited a negative trend in warm seasons, with the most changes in coastal areas and inland, respectively. Results provided evidence of warming and drying since the 1990s. Changes in precipitation indices were much weaker and less spatially coherent. Summer was found to be the most sensitive season, in comparison with winter. For arid and semi-arid regions, by increasing the latitude, less warm events occurred, while increasing the longitude led to more warming events. Overall, Iran is dominated by a significant increase in warm events, especially minimum temperature-based indices (nighttime). This result, in addition to fewer precipitation events, suggests a generally dryer regime for the future, which is more evident in the warm season of semi-arid sites. The results could provide beneficial references for water resources and eco-environmental policymakers.

Role of resolution in regional climate change projections over China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Ying; Wang, Guiling; Gao, Xuejie

2017-11-01

This paper investigates the sensitivity of projected future climate changes over China to the horizontal resolution of a regional climate model RegCM4.4 (RegCM), using RCP8.5 as an example. Model validation shows that RegCM performs better in reproducing the spatial distribution and magnitude of present-day temperature, precipitation and climate extremes than the driving global climate model HadGEM2-ES (HadGEM, at 1.875° × 1.25° degree resolution), but little difference is found between the simulations at 50 and 25 km resolutions. Comparison with observational data at different resolutions confirmed the added value of the RCM and finer model resolutions in better capturing the probability distribution of precipitation. However, HadGEM and RegCM at both resolutions project a similar pattern of significant future warming during both winter and summer, and a similar pattern of winter precipitation changes including dominant increase in most areas of northern China and little change or decrease in the southern part. Projected precipitation changes in summer diverge among the three models, especially over eastern China, with a general increase in HadGEM, little change in RegCM at 50 km, and a mix of increase and decrease in RegCM at 25 km resolution. Changes of temperature-related extremes (annual total number of daily maximum temperature > 25 °C, the maximum value of daily maximum temperature, the minimum value of daily minimum temperature in the three simulations especially in the two RegCM simulations are very similar to each other; so are the precipitation-related extremes (maximum consecutive dry days, maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation and extremely wet days' total amount). Overall, results from this study indicate a very low sensitivity of projected changes in this region to model resolution. While fine resolution is critical for capturing the spatial variability of the control climate, it may not be as important for capturing the climate response to homogeneous forcing (in this case greenhouse gas concentration changes).

High Tensile Strength Amalgams for In-Space Repair and Fabrication

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grugel, R. N.

2005-01-01

Amalgams are defined as an alloy of mercury with one or more other metals. These, along with those based on gallium (also liquid at near room temperature), are widely used in dental practice as a tooth filling material. Amalgams have a number of useful attributes that indude room temperature compounding. corrosion resistance, dimensional stability, and good compressive strength. These properties well serve dental needs but, unfortunately, amalgams have extremely poor tensile strength, a feature that severely limits their applications. The work presented here demonstrates how, by modifying particle geometry, the tensile strength of amalgams can be increased and thus extending the range of potential applications. This is relevant to, for example, the freeform fabrication of replacement parts that might be necessary during an extended space mission. Advantages, i.e. Figures-of-Merit. include the ability to produce complex parts, minimum crew interaction, high yield - minimum wasted material, reduced gravity compatibility, minimum final finishing, safety, and minimum power consumption.

Radiation-induced polymerization of glass-forming systems. IV. Effect of the homogeneity of polymerization phase and polymer concentration on temperature dependence of initial polymerization rate

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kaetsu, I.; Ito, A.; Hayashi, K.

1973-06-01

The effect of homogeneity of polymerization phase and monomer concentration on the temperature dependence of initial polymerization rate was studied in the radiation-induced radical polymerization of binary systems consisting of glass-forming monomer and solvent. In the polymerization of a completely homogeneous system such as HEMA-propylene glycol, a maximum and a minimum in polymerization rates as a function of temperature, characteristic of the polymerization in glass-forming systems, were observed for all monomer concentrations. However, in the heterogeneous polymerization systems such as HEMA-triacetin and HEMAisoamyl acetate, maximum and minimum rates were observed in monomer-rich compositions but not at low monomer concentrations. Furthermore,more » in the HEMA-dioctyl phthalate polymerization system, which is extremely heterogeneous, no maximum and minimum rates were observed at any monomer concentration. The effect of conversion on the temperature dependence of polymerization rate in homogeneous bulk polymerization of HEMA and GMA was investigated. Maximum and minimum rates were observed clearly in conversions less than 10% in the case of HEMA and less than 50% in the case of GMA, but the maximum and minimum changed to a mere inflection in the curve at higher conversions. A similar effect of polymer concentration on the temperature dependence of polymerization rate in the GMA-poly(methyl methacrylate) system was also observed. It is deduced that the change in temperature dependence of polymerization rate is attributed to the decrease in contribution of mutual termination reaction of growing chain radicals to the polymerization rate. (auth)« less

Arctic daily temperature and precipitation extremes: Observed and simulated physical behavior

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glisan, Justin Michael

Simulations using a six-member ensemble of Pan-Arctic WRF (PAW) were produced on two Arctic domains with 50-km resolution to analyze precipitation and temperature extremes for various periods. The first study used a domain developed for the Regional Arctic Climate Model (RACM). Initial simulations revealed deep atmospheric circulation biases over the northern Pacific Ocean, manifested in pressure, geopotential height, and temperature fields. Possible remedies to correct these large biases, such as modifying the physical domain or using different initial/boundary conditions, were unsuccessful. Spectral (interior) nudging was introduced as a way of constraining the model to be more consistent with observed behavior. However, such control over numerical model behavior raises concerns over how much nudging may affect unforced variability and extremes. Strong nudging may reduce or filter out extreme events, since the nudging pushes the model toward a relatively smooth, large-scale state. The question then becomes---what is the minimum spectral nudging needed to correct biases while not limiting the simulation of extreme events? To determine this, we use varying degrees of spectral nudging, using WRF's standard nudging as a reference point during January and July 2007. Results suggest that there is a marked lack of sensitivity to varying degrees of nudging. Moreover, given that nudging is an artificial forcing applied in the model, an important outcome of this work is that nudging strength apparently can be considerably smaller than WRF's standard strength and still produce reliable simulations. In the remaining studies, we used the same PAW setup to analyze daily precipitation extremes simulated over a 19-year period on the CORDEX Arctic domain for winter and summer. We defined these seasons as the three-month period leading up to and including the climatological sea ice maximum and minimum, respectively. Analysis focused on four North American regions defined using climatological records, regional weather patterns, and geographical/topographical features. We compared simulated extremes with those occurring at corresponding observing stations in the U.S. National Climate Data Center's (NCDC's) Global Summary of the Day. Our analysis focused on variations in features of the extremes such as magnitudes, spatial scales, and temporal regimes. Using composites of extreme events, we also analyzed the processes producing these extremes, comparing circulation, pressure, temperature and humidity fields from the ERA-Interim reanalysis and the model output. The analysis revealed the importance of atmospheric convection in the Arctic for some extreme precipitation events and the overall importance of topographic precipitation. The analysis established the physical credibility of the simulations for extreme behavior, laying a foundation for examining projected changes in extreme precipitation. It also highlighted the utility of the model for extracting behavior that one cannot discern directly from the observations, such as summer convective precipitation.

Climate Change and Its Impact on the Yield of Major Food Crops: Evidence from Pakistan

PubMed Central

Ali, Sajjad; Liu, Ying; Ishaq, Muhammad; Shah, Tariq; Abdullah; Ilyas, Aasir; Din, Izhar Ud

2017-01-01

Pakistan is vulnerable to climate change, and extreme climatic conditions are threatening food security. This study examines the effects of climate change (e.g., maximum temperature, minimum temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, and the sunshine) on the major crops of Pakistan (e.g., wheat, rice, maize, and sugarcane). The methods of feasible generalized least square (FGLS) and heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation (HAC) consistent standard error were employed using time series data for the period 1989 to 2015. The results of the study reveal that maximum temperature adversely affects wheat production, while the effect of minimum temperature is positive and significant for all crops. Rainfall effect towards the yield of a selected crop is negative, except for wheat. To cope with and mitigate the adverse effects of climate change, there is a need for the development of heat- and drought-resistant high-yielding varieties to ensure food security in the country. PMID:28538704

Climate Change and Its Impact on the Yield of Major Food Crops: Evidence from Pakistan.

PubMed

Ali, Sajjad; Liu, Ying; Ishaq, Muhammad; Shah, Tariq; Abdullah; Ilyas, Aasir; Din, Izhar Ud

2017-05-24

Pakistan is vulnerable to climate change, and extreme climatic conditions are threatening food security. This study examines the effects of climate change (e.g., maximum temperature, minimum temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, and the sunshine) on the major crops of Pakistan (e.g., wheat, rice, maize, and sugarcane). The methods of feasible generalized least square (FGLS) and heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation (HAC) consistent standard error were employed using time series data for the period 1989 to 2015. The results of the study reveal that maximum temperature adversely affects wheat production, while the effect of minimum temperature is positive and significant for all crops. Rainfall effect towards the yield of a selected crop is negative, except for wheat. To cope with and mitigate the adverse effects of climate change, there is a need for the development of heat- and drought-resistant high-yielding varieties to ensure food security in the country.

Mortality risk attributable to high and low ambient temperature: a multicountry observational study

PubMed Central

Gasparrini, Antonio; Guo, Yuming; Hashizume, Masahiro; Lavigne, Eric; Zanobetti, Antonella; Schwartz, Joel; Tobias, Aurelio; Tong, Shilu; Rocklöv, Joacim; Forsberg, Bertil; Leone, Michela; De Sario, Manuela; Bell, Michelle L; Guo, Yue-Liang Leon; Wu, Chang-fu; Kan, Haidong; Yi, Seung-Muk; de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Micheline; Saldiva, Paulo Hilario Nascimento; Honda, Yasushi; Kim, Ho; Armstrong, Ben

2015-01-01

Summary Background Although studies have provided estimates of premature deaths attributable to either heat or cold in selected countries, none has so far offered a systematic assessment across the whole temperature range in populations exposed to different climates. We aimed to quantify the total mortality burden attributable to non-optimum ambient temperature, and the relative contributions from heat and cold and from moderate and extreme temperatures. Methods We collected data for 384 locations in Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Taiwan, Thailand, UK, and USA. We fitted a standard time-series Poisson model for each location, controlling for trends and day of the week. We estimated temperature–mortality associations with a distributed lag non-linear model with 21 days of lag, and then pooled them in a multivariate metaregression that included country indicators and temperature average and range. We calculated attributable deaths for heat and cold, defined as temperatures above and below the optimum temperature, which corresponded to the point of minimum mortality, and for moderate and extreme temperatures, defined using cutoffs at the 2·5th and 97·5th temperature percentiles. Findings We analysed 74 225 200 deaths in various periods between 1985 and 2012. In total, 7·71% (95% empirical CI 7·43–7·91) of mortality was attributable to non-optimum temperature in the selected countries within the study period, with substantial differences between countries, ranging from 3·37% (3·06 to 3·63) in Thailand to 11·00% (9·29 to 12·47) in China. The temperature percentile of minimum mortality varied from roughly the 60th percentile in tropical areas to about the 80–90th percentile in temperate regions. More temperature-attributable deaths were caused by cold (7·29%, 7·02–7·49) than by heat (0·42%, 0·39–0·44). Extreme cold and hot temperatures were responsible for 0·86% (0·84–0·87) of total mortality. Interpretation Most of the temperature-related mortality burden was attributable to the contribution of cold. The effect of days of extreme temperature was substantially less than that attributable to milder but non-optimum weather. This evidence has important implications for the planning of public-health interventions to minimise the health consequences of adverse temperatures, and for predictions of future effect in climate-change scenarios. Funding UK Medical Research Council. PMID:26003380

Elucidating the impact of temperature variability and extremes on cereal croplands through remote sensing.

PubMed

Duncan, John M A; Dash, Jadunandan; Atkinson, Peter M

2015-04-01

Remote sensing-derived wheat crop yield-climate models were developed to highlight the impact of temperature variation during thermo-sensitive periods (anthesis and grain-filling; TSP) of wheat crop development. Specific questions addressed are: can the impact of temperature variation occurring during the TSP on wheat crop yield be detected using remote sensing data and what is the impact? Do crop critical temperature thresholds during TSP exist in real world cropping landscapes? These questions are tested in one of the world's major wheat breadbaskets of Punjab and Haryana, north-west India. Warming average minimum temperatures during the TSP had a greater negative impact on wheat crop yield than warming maximum temperatures. Warming minimum and maximum temperatures during the TSP explain a greater amount of variation in wheat crop yield than average growing season temperature. In complex real world cereal croplands there was a variable yield response to critical temperature threshold exceedance, specifically a more pronounced negative impact on wheat yield with increased warming events above 35 °C. The negative impact of warming increases with a later start-of-season suggesting earlier sowing can reduce wheat crop exposure harmful temperatures. However, even earlier sown wheat experienced temperature-induced yield losses, which, when viewed in the context of projected warming up to 2100 indicates adaptive responses should focus on increasing wheat tolerance to heat. This study shows it is possible to capture the impacts of temperature variation during the TSP on wheat crop yield in real world cropping landscapes using remote sensing data; this has important implications for monitoring the impact of climate change, variation and heat extremes on wheat croplands. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Projected Changes in Temperature and Precipitation Extremes over China as Measured by 50-yr Return Values and Periods Based on a CMIP5 Ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Ying; Gao, Xuejie; Giorgi, Filippo; Zhou, Botao; Shi, Ying; Wu, Jie; Zhang, Yongxiang

2018-04-01

Future changes in the 50-yr return level for temperature and precipitation extremes over mainland China are investigated based on a CMIP5 multi-model ensemble for RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The following indices are analyzed: TXx and TNn (the annual maximum and minimum of daily maximum and minimum surface temperature), RX5day (the annual maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation) and CDD (maximum annual number of consecutive dry days). After first validating the model performance, future changes in the 50-yr return values and return periods for these indices are investigated along with the inter-model spread. Multi-model median changes show an increase in the 50-yr return values of TXx and a decrease for TNn, more specifically, by the end of the 21st century under RCP8.5, the present day 50-yr return period of warm events is reduced to 1.2 yr, while extreme cold events over the country are projected to essentially disappear. A general increase in RX5day 50-yr return values is found in the future. By the end of the 21st century under RCP8.5, events of the present RX5day 50-yr return period are projected to reduce to < 10 yr over most of China. Changes in CDD-50 show a dipole pattern over China, with a decrease in the values and longer return periods in the north, and vice versa in the south. Our study also highlights the need for further improvements in the representation of extreme events in climate models to assess the future risks and engineering design related to large-scale infrastructure in China.

Has the Temperature Climate of the United States Become More Extreme?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stevens, L. E.; Kunkel, K.; Vose, R. S.; Knight, R. W.

2014-12-01

Extreme heat has affected parts of the United States during recent summers, particularly 2011 and 2012. Severe cold has also occurred in recent years. This has created a perception that the temperature climate of the U.S. has become more extreme. Is this the case? We address this question by computing probability distribution functions (PDFs) for each season and evaluating temporal changes for the 20th and early 21st centuries using a new gridded monthly temperature data set. We examine changes in the mean, width, and shape of the PDFs for seven U.S. regions, as defined in the third National Climate Assessment. During the past 2-3 decades, there has been a shift toward more frequent very warm months, but this has been accompanied by a decrease in the occurrence of very cold months. Thus, overall we determine that the temperature climate of the U.S. has not become more extreme. The 1930s were an earlier period of frequent very warm months, but this was primarily a result of very warm daytime temperatures, while the occurrence of months with very high nighttime temperatures was not unusually large during that period. There are important regional variations in these results. In particular, the shift to more frequent very warm months is not predominant in the southeast U.S. annually or in parts of the central U.S. in the summer. This lack of warming is a feature of daytime maximum temperature, not nighttime minimum temperature.

Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes observed in Modena, Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boccolari, M.; Malmusi, S.

2013-03-01

Climate changes has become one of the most analysed subjects from researchers community, mainly because of the numerous extreme events that hit the globe. To have a better view of climate changes and trends, long observations time series are needed. During last decade a lot of Italian time series, concerning several surface meteorological variables, have been analysed and published. No one of them includes one of the longest record in Italy, the time series of the Geophysical Observatory of the University of Modena and Reggio Emilia. Measurements, collected since early 19th century, always in the same position, except for some months during the second world war, embrace daily temperature, precipitation amount, relative humidity, pressure, cloudiness and other variables. In this work we concentrated on the analysis of yearly and seasonal trends and climate extremes of temperature, both minimum and maximum, and precipitation time series, for the periods 1861-2010 and 1831-2010 respectively, in which continuous measurements are available. In general, our results confirm quite well those reported by IPCC and in many other studies over Mediterranean area. In particular, we found that minimum temperature has a non significant positive trend of + 0.1 °C per decade considering all the period, the value increases to 0.9 °C per decade for 1981-2010. For maximum temperature we observed a non significant + 0.1 °C trend for all the period, while + 0.8 °C for the last thirty years. On the other hand precipitation is decreasing, -6.3 mm per decade, considering all the analysed period, while the last thirty years are characterised by a great increment of 74.8 mm per decade. For both variables several climate indices have been analysed and they confirm what has been found for minimum and maximum temperatures and precipitation. In particular, during last 30 years frost days and ice days are decreasing, whereas summer days are increasing. During the last 30-year tropical nights and warm spell duration indices are characterised by a particular strong increment, if compared to the ones of the entire period. Finally, a cursory comparison between winter precipitation and NAO index was done, showing a high anti-correlation, especially since the second half of 20th century.

Intra-Seasonal Variability of Climate and Peasant Perception of Climate Change in Massili Basin in Burkina Faso.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kabore Bontogho, P. E.

2014-12-01

Knowledge of climate variability is relevant and challenging for farmers, decision makers and population in general. Ninety percent of Burkina Faso active population is engaged in agriculture and livestock, which accounts for 39% of gross domestic product. Located between the coordinates 1o15'-1o55' West and 12o17'- 12o50'North, Massili basin includes Ouagadougou the capital and has four dams, of which the most important dam, Loumbila is used for the capital water supply and irrigation. A change of climate may affect the water resources most likely limit the access to safe water. In order to characterize Massili basin climate variability, daily temperature and precipitation over 1960 to 2012 was analyzed using long-term records from the Ouagadougou synoptic station. By applying R-climdex and instat tools, indices were calculated by a consistent approach recommended by the World Meteorological Organization Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices. The precipitation parameters computed were: the maximum 5-day precipitationamount; the number of days with precipitation amount ≥50 mm ; the maximum precipitation amount in consecutive wet days with RR≥ 1mm; the consecutives dry days;the extremely wet days ; the extreme precipitation in one day, the total precipitation in wet days; the temperature indices computed were : the maximum of the maximum daily temperature, the minimum of daily maximum temperature,the minimum of daily minimum temperature,the cold spell duration indices and the warm spell duration indicator. Results show a slight increase of the maximum 5-day precipitation, maximum precipitation amount in consecutive wet days with RR≥1mm, the onset delayed and the cessation is earlier meaning that the rainfall period is shortening. The total precipitationwas decreased in the basin but there is a slight increase in the occurrence of extremely wet days. CSDI is decreasing while warm spell duration indices are increasing. In parallel of the data analysis, a survey of 200 peasant spread within 20 villages was done to assess their perception on climate change. Farmers perception corroborate with the above results as their majority describes climate change as decrease of rainfall (79%) and increase of temperature (99%). In addition, all farmers agreed that more floods are occurring.

Thermal biology, population fluctuations and implications of temperature extremes for the management of two globally significant insect pests.

PubMed

Nyamukondiwa, Casper; Weldon, Christopher W; Chown, Steven L; le Roux, Peter C; Terblanche, John S

2013-12-01

The link between environmental temperature, physiological processes and population fluctuations is a significant aspect of insect pest management. Here, we explore how thermal biology affects the population abundance of two globally significant pest fruit fly species, Ceratitis capitata (medfly) and C. rosa (Natal fruit fly), including irradiated individuals and those expressing a temperature sensitive lethal (tsl) mutation that are used in the sterile insect technique. Results show that upper and lower lethal temperatures are seldom encountered at the field sites, while critical minimum temperatures for activity and lower developmental thresholds are crossed more frequently. Estimates of abundance revealed that C. capitata are active year-round, but abundance declines markedly during winter. Temporal autocorrelation of average fortnightly trap captures and of development time, estimated from an integrated model to calculate available degree days, show similar seasonal lags suggesting that population increases in early spring occur after sufficient degree-days have accumulated. By contrast, population collapses coincide tightly with increasing frequency of low temperature events that fall below critical minimum temperatures for activity. Individuals of C. capitata expressing the tsl mutation show greater critical thermal maxima and greater longevity under field conditions than reference individuals. Taken together, this evidence suggests that low temperatures limit populations in the Western Cape, South Africa and likely do so elsewhere. Increasing temperature extremes and warming climates generally may extend the season over which these species are active, and could increase abundance. The sterile insect technique may prove profitable as climates change given that laboratory-reared tsl flies have an advantage under warmer conditions. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prevailing trends of climatic extremes across Indus-Delta of Sindh-Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abbas, Farhat; Rehman, Iqra; Adrees, Muhammad; Ibrahim, Muhammad; Saleem, Farhan; Ali, Shafaqat; Rizwan, Muhammad; Salik, Muhammad Raza

2018-02-01

This study examines the variability and change in the patterns of climatic extremes experienced in Indus-Delta of Sindh province of Pakistan, comprising regions of Karachi, Badin, Mohenjodaro, and Rohri. The homogenized daily minimum and maximum temperature and precipitation data for a 36-year period were used to calculate 13 and 11 indices of temperature and precipitation extremes with the help of RClimDex, a program written in the statistical software package R. A non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimates were used to determine the statistical significance and magnitude of the calculated trend. Temperatures of summer days and tropical nights increased in the region with overall significant warming trends for monthly maximum temperature as well as for warm days and nights reflecting dry conditions in the study area. The warm extremes and nighttime temperature indices showed greater trends than cold extremes and daytime indices depicting an overall warming trends in the Delta. Historic decrease in the acreage of major crops and over 33% decrease in agriculture credit for Sindh are the indicators of adverse impacts of warmer and drier weather on Sindh agriculture. Trends reported for Karachi and Badin are expected to decrease rice cultivation, hatching of fisheries, and mangroves forest surrounding these cities. Increase in the prevailing temperature trends will lead to increasingly hotter and drier summers resulting to constraints on cotton, wheat, and rice yield in Rohri and Mohenjodaro areas due to increased crop water requirements that may be met with additional groundwater pumping; nonetheless, the depleted groundwater resources would have a direct impact on the region's economy.

Know your limits? Climate extremes impact the range of Scots pine in unexpected places

PubMed Central

Julio Camarero, J.; Gazol, Antonio; Sancho-Benages, Santiago; Sangüesa-Barreda, Gabriel

2015-01-01

Background and Aims Although extreme climatic events such as drought are known to modify forest dynamics by triggering tree dieback, the impact of extreme cold events, especially at the low-latitude margin (‘rear edge’) of species distributional ranges, has received little attention. The aim of this study was to examine the impact of one such extreme cold event on a population of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) along the species’ European southern rear-edge range limit and to determine how such events can be incorporated into species distribution models (SDMs). Methods A combination of dendrochronology and field observation was used to quantify how an extreme cold event in 2001 in eastern Spain affected growth, needle loss and mortality of Scots pine. Long-term European climatic data sets were used to contextualize the severity of the 2001 event, and an SDM for Scots pine in Europe was used to predict climatic range limits. Key Results The 2001 winter reached record minimum temperatures (equivalent to the maximum European-wide diurnal ranges) and, for trees already stressed by a preceding dry summer and autumn, this caused dieback and large-scale mortality. Needle loss and mortality were particularly evident in south-facing sites, where post-event recovery was greatly reduced. The SDM predicted European Scots pine distribution mainly on the basis of responses to maximum and minimum monthly temperatures, but in comparison with this the observed effects of the 2001 cold event at the southerly edge of the range limit were unforeseen. Conclusions The results suggest that in order to better forecast how anthropogenic climate change might affect future forest distributions, distribution modelling techniques such as SDMs must incorporate climatic extremes. For Scots pine, this study shows that the effects of cold extremes should be included across the entire distribution margin, including the southern ‘rear edge’, in order to avoid biased predictions based solely on warmer climatic scenarios. PMID:26292992

Unidirectional trends in annual and seasonal climate and extremes in Egypt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nashwan, Mohamed Salem; Shahid, Shamsuddin; Abd Rahim, Norhan

2018-05-01

The presence of short- and long-term autocorrelations can lead to considerable change in significance of trend in hydro-climatic time series. Therefore, past findings of climatic trend studies that did not consider autocorrelations became a questionable issue. The spatial patterns in the trends of annual and seasonal temperature, rainfall, and related extremes in Egypt have been assessed in this paper using modified Mann-Kendal (MMK) trend test which can detect unidirectional trends in time series in the presence of short- and long-term autocorrelations. The trends obtained using the MMK test was compared with that obtained using standard Mann-Kendall (MK) test to show how natural variability in climate affects the trends. The daily rainfall and temperature data of Princeton Global Meteorological Forcing for the period 1948-2010 having a spatial resolution of 0.25° × 0.25° was used for this purpose. The results showed a large difference between the trends obtained using MMK and MK tests. The MMK test showed increasing trends in temperature and a number of temperature extremes in Egypt, but almost no change in rainfall and rainfall extremes. The minimum temperature was found to increase (0.08-0.29 °C/decade) much faster compared to maximum temperature (0.07-0.24 °C/decade) and therefore, a decrease in diurnal temperature range (- 0.01 to - 0.16 °C/decade) in most part of Egypt. The number of winter hot days and nights are increasing, while the number of cold days is decreasing in most part of the country. The study provides a more realistic scenario of the changes in climate and weather extremes of Egypt.

Wavelet Scale Analysis of Mesoscale Convective Systems for Detecting Deep Convection From Infrared Imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klein, Cornelia; Belušić, Danijel; Taylor, Christopher M.

2018-03-01

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are frequently associated with rainfall extremes and are expected to further intensify under global warming. However, despite the significant impact of such extreme events, the dominant processes favoring their occurrence are still under debate. Meteosat geostationary satellites provide unique long-term subhourly records of cloud top temperatures, allowing to track changes in MCS structures that could be linked to rainfall intensification. Focusing on West Africa, we show that Meteosat cloud top temperatures are a useful proxy for rainfall intensities, as derived from snapshots from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission 2A25 product: MCSs larger than 15,000 km2 at a temperature threshold of -40°C are found to produce 91% of all extreme rainfall occurrences in the study region, with 80% of the storms producing extreme rain when their minimum temperature drops below -80°C. Furthermore, we present a new method based on 2-D continuous wavelet transform to explore the relationship between cloud top temperature and rainfall intensity for subcloud features at different length scales. The method shows great potential for separating convective and stratiform cloud parts when combining information on temperature and scale, improving the common approach of using a temperature threshold only. We find that below -80°C, every fifth pixel is associated with deep convection. This frequency is doubled when looking at subcloud features smaller than 35 km. Scale analysis of subcloud features can thus help to better exploit cloud top temperature data sets, which provide much more spatiotemporal detail of MCS characteristics than available rainfall data sets alone.

Observational analysis and large-scale pattern associated with cold events moving up the equator line over South America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Viana, Liviany; Herdies, Dirceu; Muller, Gabriela

2017-04-01

An observational study was carried out to quantify the events of cold air outbreak moving above the Equator from 1980 to 2013 during the austral winter period (May, June, July, August and September), and later analyzed the behavior of the circulation responsible for this displacement. The observational datasets from the Sector of Climatological studies of the Institute of Airspace Control of the city of Iauarete (0.61N, 69.0W; 120m), located at the extreme northern of the Brazilian Amazon Basin, were used for the analyzes. The meteorological variables used were the temperatures minimum, maximum and maximum atmospheric pressure. A new methodology was used to identify these events, calculated by the difference between the monthly average and 2 (two) standard deviations for the extremes of the air temperature, and the sum of 1 (one) standard deviation for the maximum atmospheric pressure. As a result, a total of 11 cold events were recorded that reached the extreme northern of the Brazilian Amazon Basin, with values recorded at a minimum temperature of 17.8 °C, at the maximum temperature of 21.0 °C and maximum atmospheric pressure reaching 1021.2 hPa. These reductions and augmentation are equivalent to the negative anomalies of 5.9 and 8.7 °C at the minimum and maximum temperatures, respectively, while a positive anomaly of 7.1 hPa was observed at the maximum pressure. In relation to the dynamic behavior of large-scale circulation, a Rossby wave-type configuration propagating from west to east over subtropical latitudes was observed from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) since the days before the arrival of the event in the city of Iauarete. This behavior was observed both in the anomalies of the gepotencial (250 hPa and 850 hPa) and in the southern component of the wind (250 hPa and 850 hPa), both presenting statistical significance of 99 % (Student's T test). Therefore, a new criterion for the identification of "friagens" in the tropical latitude has been able to represent the effects of colds air outbreak and the advancement of the cold air mass, which are subsidized by the large-scale circulation, and consequently contribute to the modifications in the weather and the life of the population over this Equatorial region.

Global Analysis of Empirical Relationships Between Annual Climate and Seasonality of NDVI

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Potter, C. S.

1997-01-01

This study describes the use of satellite data to calibrate a new climate-vegetation greenness function for global change studies. We examined statistical relationships between annual climate indexes (temperature, precipitation, and surface radiation) and seasonal attributes of the AVHRR Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series for the mid-1980s in order to refine our empirical understanding of intraannual patterns and global abiotic controls on natural vegetation dynamics. Multiple linear regression results using global l(sup o) gridded data sets suggest that three climate indexes: growing degree days, annual precipitation total, and an annual moisture index together can account to 70-80 percent of the variation in the NDVI seasonal extremes (maximum and minimum values) for the calibration year 1984. Inclusion of the same climate index values from the previous year explained no significant additional portion of the global scale variation in NDVI seasonal extremes. The monthly timing of NDVI extremes was closely associated with seasonal patterns in maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall, with lag times of 1 to 2 months. We separated well-drained areas from l(sup o) grid cells mapped as greater than 25 percent inundated coverage for estimation of both the magnitude and timing of seasonal NDVI maximum values. Predicted monthly NDVI, derived from our climate-based regression equations and Fourier smoothing algorithms, shows good agreement with observed NDVI at a series of ecosystem test locations from around the globe. Regions in which NDVI seasonal extremes were not accurately predicted are mainly high latitude ecosystems and other remote locations where climate station data are sparse.

Soil response to long-term projections of extreme temperature and precipitation in the southern La Plata Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pántano, Vanesa C.; Penalba, Olga C.

2017-12-01

Projected changes were estimated considering the main variables which take part in soil-atmosphere interaction. The analysis was focused on the potential impact of these changes on soil hydric condition under extreme precipitation and evapotranspiration, using the combination of Global Climate Models (GCMs) and observational data. The region of study is the southern La Plata Basin that covers part of Argentine territory, where rainfed agriculture production is one of the most important economic activities. Monthly precipitation and maximum and minimum temperatures were used from high quality-controlled observed data from 46 meteorological stations and the ensemble of seven CMIP5 GCMs in two periods: 1970-2005 and 2065-2100. Projected changes in monthly effective temperature and precipitation were analysed. These changes were combined with observed series for each probabilistic interval. The result was used as input variables for the water balance model in order to obtain consequent soil hydric condition (deficit or excess). Effective temperature and precipitation are expected to increase according to the projections of GCMs, with few exceptions. The analysis revealed increase (decrease) in the prevalence of evapotranspiration over precipitation, during spring (winter). Projections for autumn months show precipitation higher than potential evapotranspiration more frequently. Under dry extremes, the analysis revealed higher projected deficit conditions, impacting on crop development. On the other hand, under wet extremes, excess would reach higher values only in particular months. During December, projected increase in temperatures reduces the impact of extreme high precipitation but favours deficit conditions, affecting flower-fructification stage of summer crops.

Large Scale Drivers for the Extreme Storm Season over the North Atlantic and the UK in Winter 2013-14

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wild, Simon; Befort, Daniel J.; Leckebusch, Gregor C.

2016-04-01

The British Isles experienced exceptional stormy and rainy weather conditions in winter 2013-2014 while large parts of central North America recorded near record minimum surface temperatures values. Potential drivers for these cold conditions include increasingly warm surface waters of the tropical west Pacific. It has been suggested these increasing sea surface temperatures could also be the cause for extreme weather over the Europe, particularly the UK. Testing this hypothesis, we investigate mechanisms linking the tropical west Pacific and European wind storm activity. We will firstly analyse anomaly patterns along such a potential link in winter 2013-14. Secondly, we will investigate whether these identified anomaly patterns show a strong interannual relationship in the recent past. Our results, using primarily ERA-Interim Reanalysis from 1979 to 2014, show an absolute maximum of wind storm frequency over the northeast Atlantic and the British Isles in winter 2013-14. We also find absolute minimum surface temperatures in central North America and increased convective activity over the tropical west Pacific in the same season. The winter 2013-14 was additionally characterized by anomalous warm sea surface temperatures over the subtropical northwest Atlantic. Although the interannual variability of wind storms in the northeast Atlantic and surface temperatures in North America are significantly anti-correlated, we cannot directly relate wind storm frequency with tropical west Pacific anomalies. We thus conclude that the conditions over the Pacific in winter 2013-14 were favourable but not sufficient to explain the record number of wind storms in this season. Instead, we suggest that warm north Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies in combination with cold surface temperatures over North America played a more important role for generating higher wind storm counts over the northeast Atlantic and the UK.

Development of Pavement Temperature Contours for India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nivitha, M. R.; Krishnan, J. M.

2014-06-01

The stress-strain response of the bituminous pavements is highly sensitive to temperature. To systematically analyze the pavement performance, it is necessary that one understands the variation of pavement temperature spatially and temporally during the life time of a pavement. In this investigation, historic air temperature data for 37 locations across India was collected. Using this database, pavement temperature data was predicted by an appropriate air temperature-pavement temperature model. High and low temperature pavement temperature contours were generated for the first time for India. It was seen that the locations spanning from Srinagar to Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan to Orissa were extremely critical. The minimum temperature in these locations was 10 C and the maximum temperature was around 68 C. Clearly such information is necessary when making choice of binder grade and bituminous layer thickness.

Extreme low temperature tolerance in woody plants

PubMed Central

Strimbeck, G. Richard; Schaberg, Paul G.; Fossdal, Carl G.; Schröder, Wolfgang P.; Kjellsen, Trygve D.

2015-01-01

Woody plants in boreal to arctic environments and high mountains survive prolonged exposure to temperatures below -40°C and minimum temperatures below -60°C, and laboratory tests show that many of these species can also survive immersion in liquid nitrogen at -196°C. Studies of biochemical changes that occur during acclimation, including recent proteomic and metabolomic studies, have identified changes in carbohydrate and compatible solute concentrations, membrane lipid composition, and proteins, notably dehydrins, that may have important roles in survival at extreme low temperature (ELT). Consideration of the biophysical mechanisms of membrane stress and strain lead to the following hypotheses for cellular and molecular mechanisms of survival at ELT: (1) Changes in lipid composition stabilize membranes at temperatures above the lipid phase transition temperature (-20 to -30°C), preventing phase changes that result in irreversible injury. (2) High concentrations of oligosaccharides promote vitrification or high viscosity in the cytoplasm in freeze-dehydrated cells, which would prevent deleterious interactions between membranes. (3) Dehydrins bind membranes and further promote vitrification or act stearically to prevent membrane–membrane interactions. PMID:26539202

Do the Brazilian sardine commercial landings respond to local ocean circulation?

PubMed

Gouveia, Mainara B; Gherardi, Douglas F M; Lentini, Carlos A D; Dias, Daniela F; Campos, Paula C

2017-01-01

It has been reported that sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, flow intensity and mesoscale ocean processes, all affect sardine production, both in eastern and western boundary current systems. Here we tested the hypothesis whether extreme high and low commercial landings of the Brazilian sardine fisheries in the South Brazil Bight (SBB) are sensitive to different oceanic conditions. An ocean model (ROMS) and an individual based model (Ichthyop) were used to assess the relationship between oceanic conditions during the spawning season and commercial landings of the Brazilian sardine one year later. Model output was compared with remote sensing and analysis data showing good consistency. Simulations indicate that mortality of eggs and larvae by low temperature prior to maximum and minimum landings are significantly higher than mortality caused by offshore advection. However, when periods of maximum and minimum sardine landings are compared with respect to these causes of mortality no significant differences were detected. Results indicate that mortality caused by prevailing oceanic conditions at early life stages alone can not be invoked to explain the observed extreme commercial landings of the Brazilian sardine. Likely influencing factors include starvation and predation interacting with the strategy of spawning "at the right place and at the right time".

Summer weather characteristics and periodicity observed over the period 1888-2013 in the region of Belgrade, Serbia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vujović, Dragana; Todorović, Nedeljko; Paskota, Mira

2018-04-01

With the goal of finding summer climate patterns in the region of Belgrade (Serbia) over the period 1888-2013, different techniques of multivariate statistical analysis were used in order to analyze the simultaneous changes of a number of climatologic parameters. An increasing trend of the mean daily minimum temperature was detected. In the recent decades (1960-2013), this increase was much more pronounced. The number of days with the daily minimum temperature greater or equal to 20 °C also increased significantly. Precipitation had no statistically significant trend. Spectral analysis showed a repetitive nature of the climatologic parameters which had periods that roughly can be classified into three groups, with the durations of the following: (1) 6 to 7 years, (2) 10 to 18 years, and (3) 21, 31, and 41 years. The temperature variables mainly had one period of repetitiveness of 5 to 7 years. Among other variables, the correlations of regional fluctuations of the temperature and precipitation and atmospheric circulation indices were analyzed. The North Atlantic oscillation index had the same periodicity as that of the precipitation, and it was not correlated to the temperature variables. Atlantic multidecadal oscillation index correlated well to the summer mean daily minimum and summer mean temperatures. The underlying structure of the data was analyzed by principal component analysis, which detected the following four easily interpreted dimensions: More sunshine-Higher temperature, Precipitation, Extreme heats, and Changeable summer.

Carbon isotopes from fossil packrat pellets and elevational movements of Utah agave plants reveal the Younger Dryas cold period in Grand Canyon, Arizona

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cole, K.L.; Arundel, S.T.

2005-01-01

Carbon isotopes in rodent fecal pellets were measured on packrat (Neotoma spp.) middens from the Grand Canyon, Arizona. The pellet samples reflect the abundance of cold-intolerant C4 and Crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM) plant species relative to the predominant C3 vegetation in the packrat diet. The temporal sequence of isotopic results suggests a temperature decline followed by a sharp increase corresponding to the B??lling/Aller??d-Younger Dryas - early Holocene sequence. This pattern was then tested using the past distribution of Utah agave (Agave utahensis). Spatial analyses of the range of this temperature-sensitive CAM species demonstrate that its upper elevational limit is controlled by winter minimum temperature. Applying this paleotemperature proxy to the past elevational limits of Utah agave suggests that minimum winter temperatures were ???8??C below modern values during the Last Glacial Maximum, 4.5-6.5 ??C below modern during the B??lling/Aller??d, and 7.5-8.7 ??C below modern during the early Younger Dryas. As the Younger Dryas terminated, temperatures warmed ???4 ??C between ca. 11.8 ka and 11.5 ka. These extreme fluctuations in winter minimum temperature have not been generally accepted for terrestrial paleoecological records from the arid southwestern United States, likely because of large statistical uncertainties of older radiocarbon results and reliance on proxies for summer temperatures, which were less affected. ?? 2005 Geological Society of America.

Hydrothermal extremes at the South-West Pribaikalie during the current climate changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voropay, Nadezhda

2017-04-01

Climatic extremes of air temperature and precipitation were analyzed for the Tunka Intermountain Depression (South-West Pribaikalie, Buryatia, Russian Federation). Intermountain depressions occupy a quarter of the territory of the Baikal region. The specific climatic conditions in the depressions are formed due to the geographic location and the influence of latitudinal zonation and altitudinal gradients. Air temperature and precipitation data records from at weather stations for the period 1940-2015 were analyzed. Long-term average annual temperature is negative and varies from -0.8 °C to -2.4 °C. Air temperature absolute minimum is -48 °C, absolute maximum is +36 °C. The long-term average annual precipitation is 370-480 mm, but in some years annual precipitation reach 760 mm. The summer months have about 70% of the total annual precipitation, in July and August the sum may reach 340 mm. Maximum daily sum of rainfalls is 80 mm. The contribution of the global and regional circulation characteristics into the variability of regional climatic characteristics was estimated.

Association between temperature and death in residential populations in Shanghai

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hsia, L. B.; Lu, J. K.

1988-03-01

The study is focused on patterns of daily deaths in Shanghai for the period from 1 May 1979 to 30 April 1980. From May to September the deaths in all age groups are lower, but increase gradually from October and reach to a peak in February. This confirms results found in other countries, namely the death rate is increased in winter. The peak for the population aged over 70 is the highest of the three different age groups. Correlation analyses were carried out on three temperature parameters (daily minimum, maximum and mean temperatures) and six categories of death (heart disease, coronary heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, cancer, respiratory disease and total deaths). The results reveal that the average daily temperature is very significant for the six categories of death. There are three correlations: straight line relationship, parabolic relationship and exponential relationship. These different types arise from the different morbidity rates. Death from the different disease is also increased during days when the daily maximum temperature is over 35° C or the daily minimum temperature is below 0°C. This shows, in general, that days of extreme temperature lead to an increase in the death rate.

Urban Heat Wave Hazard Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quattrochi, D. A.; Jedlovec, G.; Crane, D. L.; Meyer, P. J.; LaFontaine, F.

2016-12-01

Heat waves are one of the largest causes of environmentally-related deaths globally and are likely to become more numerous as a result of climate change. The intensification of heat waves by the urban heat island effect and elevated humidity, combined with urban demographics, are key elements leading to these disasters. Better warning of the potential hazards may help lower risks associated with heat waves. Moderate resolution thermal data from NASA satellites is used to derive high spatial resolution estimates of apparent temperature (heat index) over urban regions. These data, combined with demographic data, are used to produce a daily heat hazard/risk map for selected cities. MODIS data are used to derive daily composite maximum and minimum land surface temperature (LST) fields to represent the amplitude of the diurnal temperature cycle and identify extreme heat days. Compositing routines are used to generate representative daily maximum and minimum LSTs for the urban environment. The limited effect of relative humidity on the apparent temperature (typically 10-15%) allows for the use of modeled moisture fields to convert LST to apparent temperature without loss of spatial variability. The daily max/min apparent temperature fields are used to identify abnormally extreme heat days relative to climatological values in order to produce a heat wave hazard map. Reference to climatological values normalizes the hazard for a particular region (e.g., the impact of an extreme heat day). A heat wave hazard map has been produced for several case study periods and then computed on a quasi-operational basis during the summer of 2016 for Atlanta, GA, Chicago, IL, St. Louis, MO, and Huntsville, AL. A hazard does not become a risk until someone or something is exposed to that hazard at a level that might do harm. Demographic information is used to assess the urban risk associated with the heat wave hazard. Collectively, the heat wave hazard product can warn people in urban regions who do not have the means to provide air conditioning or take other means to stay cool. The heat wave risk product is conveyed to users via a website that describes current and historical heat wave information and is updated in real time as needed. These risk maps can be used for better monitoring of public health risk from extreme heat events in urban areas.

Life stage influences the resistance and resilience of black mangrove forests to winter climate extremes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Osland, Michael J.; Day, Richard H.; From, Andrew S.; McCoy, Megan L.; McLeod, Jennie L.; Kelleway, Jeffrey

2015-01-01

In subtropical coastal wetlands on multiple continents, climate change-induced reductions in the frequency and intensity of freezing temperatures are expected to lead to the expansion of woody plants (i.e., mangrove forests) at the expense of tidal grasslands (i.e., salt marshes). Since some ecosystem goods and services would be affected by mangrove range expansion, there is a need to better understand mangrove sensitivity to freezing temperatures as well as the implications of changing winter climate extremes for mangrove-salt marsh interactions. In this study, we investigated the following questions: (1) how does plant life stage (i.e., ontogeny) influence the resistance and resilience of black mangrove (Avicennia germinans) forests to freezing temperatures; and (2) how might differential life stage responses to freeze events affect the rate of mangrove expansion and salt marsh displacement due to climate change? To address these questions, we quantified freeze damage and recovery for different life stages (seedling, short tree, and tall tree) following extreme winter air temperature events that occurred near the northern range limit of A. germinans in North America. We found that life stage affects black mangrove forest resistance and resilience to winter climate extremes in a nonlinear fashion. Resistance to winter climate extremes was high for tall A. germinans trees and seedlings, but lowest for short trees. Resilience was highest for tall A. germinans trees. These results suggest the presence of positive feedbacks and indicate that climate-change induced decreases in the frequency and intensity of extreme minimum air temperatures could lead to a nonlinear increase in mangrove forest resistance and resilience. This feedback could accelerate future mangrove expansion and salt marsh loss at rates beyond what would be predicted from climate change alone. In general terms, our study highlights the importance of accounting for differential life stage responses and positive feedbacks when evaluating the ecological effects of changes in the frequency and magnitude of climate extremes.

Climate Extreme Events over Northern Eurasia in Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bulygina, O.; Korshunova, N. N.; Razuvaev, V. N.; Groisman, P. Y.

2014-12-01

During the period of widespread instrumental observations in Northern Eurasia, the annual surface air temperature has increased by 1.5°C. Close to the north in the Arctic Ocean, the late summer sea ice extent has decreased by 40% providing a near-infinite source of water vapor for the dry Arctic atmosphere in the early cold season months. The contemporary sea ice changes are especially visible in the Eastern Hemisphere All these factors affect the change extreme events. Daily and sub-daily data of 940 stations to analyze variations in the space time distribution of extreme temperatures, precipitation, and wind over Russia were used. Changing in number of days with thaw over Russia was described. The total seasonal numbers of days, when daily surface air temperatures (wind, precipitation) were found to be above (below) selected thresholds, were used as indices of climate extremes. Changing in difference between maximum and minimum temperature (DTR) may produce a variety of effects on biological systems. All values falling within the intervals ranged from the lowest percentile to the 5th percentile and from the 95th percentile to the highest percentile for the time period of interest were considered as daily extremes. The number of days, N, when daily temperatures (wind, precipitation, DTR) were within the above mentioned intervals, was determined for the seasons of each year. Linear trends in the number of days were calculated for each station and for quasi-homogeneous climatic regions. Regional analysis of extreme events was carried out using quasi-homogeneous climatic regions. Maps (climatology, trends) are presented mostly for visualization purposes. Differences in regional characteristics of extreme events are accounted for over a large extent of the Russian territory and variety of its physical and geographical conditions. The number of days with maximum temperatures higher than the 95% percentile has increased in most of Russia and decreased in Siberia in spring and autumn. Reducing the number of days with extremely low air temperatures dominated in all seasons. At the same time, the number of days with abnormally low air temperatures has increased in Middle Volga region and south of Western Siberia. In most parts of European Russia observed increase in the number of days with heavy snowfalls.

Evidence for strong enhancement of the magnetic ordering temperature of trivalent Nd metal under extreme pressure [Anomalous enhancement of the magnetic ordering temperature of trivalent Nd metal under extreme pressure: Possible Kondo lattice behavior

DOE PAGES

Song, J.; Bi, W.; Haskel, D.; ...

2017-05-15

Four-point electrical resistivity measurements were carried out on Nd metal and dilute magnetic alloys containing up to 1 at.% Nd in superconducting Y for temperatures 1.5–295 K under pressures to 210 GPa. The magnetic ordering temperature T o of Nd appears to rise steeply under pressure, increasing ninefold to 180 K at 70 GPa before falling rapidly. Y(Nd) alloys display both a resistivity minimum and superconducting pair breaking ΔT c as large as 38 K/at.% Nd. The present results give evidence that for pressures above 30–40 GPa, the exchange coupling J between Nd ions and conduction electrons becomes negative, thusmore » activating Kondo physics in this highly correlated electron system. Furthermore, the rise and fall of T o and ΔT c with pressure can be accounted for in terms of an increase in the Kondo temperature.« less

Evidence for strong enhancement of the magnetic ordering temperature of trivalent Nd metal under extreme pressure [Anomalous enhancement of the magnetic ordering temperature of trivalent Nd metal under extreme pressure: Possible Kondo lattice behavior

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Song, J.; Bi, W.; Haskel, D.

Four-point electrical resistivity measurements were carried out on Nd metal and dilute magnetic alloys containing up to 1 at.% Nd in superconducting Y for temperatures 1.5–295 K under pressures to 210 GPa. The magnetic ordering temperature T o of Nd appears to rise steeply under pressure, increasing ninefold to 180 K at 70 GPa before falling rapidly. Y(Nd) alloys display both a resistivity minimum and superconducting pair breaking ΔT c as large as 38 K/at.% Nd. The present results give evidence that for pressures above 30–40 GPa, the exchange coupling J between Nd ions and conduction electrons becomes negative, thusmore » activating Kondo physics in this highly correlated electron system. Furthermore, the rise and fall of T o and ΔT c with pressure can be accounted for in terms of an increase in the Kondo temperature.« less

Global Analysis of Empirical Relationships Between Annual Climate and Seasonality of NDVI

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Potter, C. S.; Brooks, V.

1997-01-01

This paper describes the use of satellite data to calibrate a new climate-vegetation greenness relationship for global change studies. We examined statistical relationships between annual climate indexes (temperature, precipitation, and surface radiation) and seasonal attributes If the AVHRR Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series for the mid-1980's in order to refine our understanding of intra-annual patterns and global abiotic controls on natural vegetation dynamics. Multiple linear regression results using global 1o gridded data sets suggest that three climate indexes: degree days (growing/chilling), annual precipitation total, and an annual moisture index together can account to 70-80 percent of the geographic variation in the NDVI seasonal extremes (maximum and minimum values) for the calibration year 1984. Inclusion of the same annual climate index values from the previous year explains no substantial additional portion of the global scale variation in NDVI seasonal extremes. The monthly timing of NDVI extremes is closely associated with seasonal patterns in maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall, with lag times of 1 to 2 months. We separated well-drained areas from lo grid cells mapped as greater than 25 percent inundated coverage for estimation of both the magnitude and timing of seasonal NDVI maximum values. Predicted monthly NDVI, derived from our climate-based regression equations and Fourier smoothing algorithms, shows good agreement with observed NDVI for several different years at a series of ecosystem test locations from around the globe. Regions in which NDVI seasonal extremes are not accurately predicted are mainly high latitude zones, mixed and disturbed vegetation types, and other remote locations where climate station data are sparse.

Know your limits? Climate extremes impact the range of Scots pine in unexpected places.

PubMed

Julio Camarero, J; Gazol, Antonio; Sancho-Benages, Santiago; Sangüesa-Barreda, Gabriel

2015-11-01

Although extreme climatic events such as drought are known to modify forest dynamics by triggering tree dieback, the impact of extreme cold events, especially at the low-latitude margin ('rear edge') of species distributional ranges, has received little attention. The aim of this study was to examine the impact of one such extreme cold event on a population of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) along the species' European southern rear-edge range limit and to determine how such events can be incorporated into species distribution models (SDMs). A combination of dendrochronology and field observation was used to quantify how an extreme cold event in 2001 in eastern Spain affected growth, needle loss and mortality of Scots pine. Long-term European climatic data sets were used to contextualize the severity of the 2001 event, and an SDM for Scots pine in Europe was used to predict climatic range limits. The 2001 winter reached record minimum temperatures (equivalent to the maximum European-wide diurnal ranges) and, for trees already stressed by a preceding dry summer and autumn, this caused dieback and large-scale mortality. Needle loss and mortality were particularly evident in south-facing sites, where post-event recovery was greatly reduced. The SDM predicted European Scots pine distribution mainly on the basis of responses to maximum and minimum monthly temperatures, but in comparison with this the observed effects of the 2001 cold event at the southerly edge of the range limit were unforeseen. The results suggest that in order to better forecast how anthropogenic climate change might affect future forest distributions, distribution modelling techniques such as SDMs must incorporate climatic extremes. For Scots pine, this study shows that the effects of cold extremes should be included across the entire distribution margin, including the southern 'rear edge', in order to avoid biased predictions based solely on warmer climatic scenarios. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Projections of Future Summer Weather in Seoul and Their Impacts on Urban Agriculture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, S. O.; Kim, J. H.; Yun, J. I.

2015-12-01

Climate departure from the past variability was projected to start in 2042 for Seoul. In order to understand the implication of climate departure in Seoul for urban agriculture, we evaluated the daily temperature for the June-September period from 2041 to 2070, which were projected by the RCP8.5 climate scenario. These data were analyzed with respect to climate extremes and their effects on growth of hot pepper (Capsicum annuum), one of the major crops in urban farming. The mean daily maximum and minimum temperatures in 2041-2070 approached to the 90th percentile in the past 30 years (1951- 1980). However, the frequency of extreme events such as heat waves and tropical nights appeared to exceed the past variability. While the departure of mean temperature might begin in or after 2040, the climate departure in the sense of extreme weather events seems already in progress. When the climate scenario data were applied to the growth and development of hot pepper, the departures of both planting date and harvest date are expected to follow those of temperature. However, the maximum duration for hot pepper cultivation, which is the number of days between the first planting and the last harvest, seems to have already deviated from the past variability.

Spatiotemporal Variability of Drought in Pakistan through High-Resolution Daily Gridded In-Situ Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bashir, F.; Zeng, X.; Gupta, H. V.; Hazenberg, P.

2017-12-01

Drought as an extreme event may have far reaching socio-economic impacts on agriculture based economies like Pakistan. Effective assessment of drought requires high resolution spatiotemporally continuous hydrometeorological information. For this purpose, new in-situ daily observations based gridded analyses of precipitation, maximum, minimum and mean temperature and diurnal temperature range are developed, that covers whole Pakistan on 0.01º latitude-longitude for a 54-year period (1960-2013). The number of participating meteorological observatories used in these gridded analyses is 2 to 6 times greater than any other similar product available. This data set is used to identify extreme wet and dry periods and their spatial patterns across Pakistan using Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Periodicity of extreme events is estimated at seasonal to decadal scales. Spatiotemporal signatures of drought incidence indicating its extent and longevity in different areas may help water resource managers and policy makers to mitigate the severity of the drought and its impact on food security through suitable adaptive techniques. Moreover, this high resolution gridded in-situ observations of precipitation and temperature is used to evaluate other coarser-resolution gridded products.

Spatiotemporal Evaluation of Reanalysis and In-situ Surface Air Temperature over Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tesfaye, T.

2017-12-01

Tewodros Woldemariam Tesfaye*1, C.T. Dhanya 2,and A.K. Gosain3 1Research Scholar, Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, New Delhi-110016, India 2Assistant Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, New Delhi-110016, India 3 Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, New Delhi-110016, India, *e-mail: tewodros2002@gmail.com Abstract: Water resources management and modelling studies are often constrained by the scarcity of observed data, especially of the two major variables i.e., precipitation and temperature. Modellers, hence, rely on reanalysis datasets as a substitute; though its performance heavily vary depending on the data availability and regional characteristics. The present study aims at examining the ability of frequently used reanalysis datasets in capturing the spatiotemporal characteristics of maximum and minimum surface temperatures over Ethiopia and to highlight the biases, if any, in these over Ethiopian region. We considered ERA-Interim, NCEP 2, MERRA and CFSR reanalysis datasets and compared these with temperature observations from 15 synoptic stations spread over Ethiopia. In addition to the long term averages and annual cycle, a critical comparison of various extreme indices such as diurnal temperature range, warm days, warm nights, cool days, cool nights, summer days and tropical nights are also undertaken. Our results indicate that, the performance of CFSR followed by NCEP 2 is better in capturing majority of the aspects. ERA-Interim suffers a huge additive bias in the simulation of various aspects of minimum temperature in all the stations considered; while its performance is better for maximum temperature. The inferior performance of ERA-Interim is noted to be only because of the difficulty in simulating minimum temperature. Key words: ERA Interim; NCEP Reanalysis; MERRA; CFSR; Diurnal temperature range; reanalysis performance.

Coldest Temperature Extreme Monotonically Increased and Hottest Extreme Oscillated over Northern Hemisphere Land during Last 114 Years.

PubMed

Zhou, Chunlüe; Wang, Kaicun

2016-05-13

Most studies on global warming rely on global mean surface temperature, whose change is jointly determined by anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs) and natural variability. This introduces a heated debate on whether there is a recent warming hiatus and what caused the hiatus. Here, we presented a novel method and applied it to a 5° × 5° grid of Northern Hemisphere land for the period 1900 to 2013. Our results show that the coldest 5% of minimum temperature anomalies (the coldest deviation) have increased monotonically by 0.22 °C/decade, which reflects well the elevated anthropogenic GHG effect. The warmest 5% of maximum temperature anomalies (the warmest deviation), however, display a significant oscillation following the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), with a warming rate of 0.07 °C/decade from 1900 to 2013. The warmest (0.34 °C/decade) and coldest deviations (0.25 °C/decade) increased at much higher rates over the most recent decade than last century mean values, indicating the hiatus should not be interpreted as a general slowing of climate change. The significant oscillation of the warmest deviation provides an extension of previous study reporting no pause in the hottest temperature extremes since 1979, and first uncovers its increase from 1900 to 1939 and decrease from 1940 to 1969.

Glove and mitten protection in extreme cold weather: an Antarctic study.

PubMed

Iserson, Kenneth V

2016-01-01

Background Myths, misconceptions and a general lack of information surround the use of gloves and mittens in extreme cold environments. Objective This study assessed how well an assortment of gloves and mittens performed in a very cold environment. Methods A convenience sample of gloves and mittens were tested in Antarctica during the winter of 2016 using a calibrated thermometer (range: -148°F to +158°F/-100°C to +70°C) three times over a 0.5-mile distance (~20 minutes). A small sensor on a 10-foot-long cable was taped to the radial surface of the distal small finger on the non-dominant hand. The tested clothing was donned over the probe, the maximum temperature inside the glove/mitten was established near a building exit (ambient temperature approximately 54°F/12°C), and the building was exited, initiating the test. The hand was kept immobile during the test. Some non-heated gloves were tested with chemical heat warmers placed over the volar or dorsal wrist. Results The highest starting (96°F/36°C) and ending (82°F/28°C) temperatures were with electrically heated gloves. The lowest starting temperature was with electrically heated gloves with the power off (63°F/17°C). Non-heated gloves with an inserted chemical hand warmer had the lowest minimum temperature (33°F/1°C). Maximum temperatures for gloves/mittens did not correlate well with their minimum temperature. Conclusions Coverings that maintained finger temperatures within a comfortable and safe range (at or above 59°F/15°C) included the heated gloves and mittens (including some with the power off) and mittens with liners. Mittens without liners (shell) generally performed better than unheated gloves. Better results generally paralleled the item's cost. Inserting chemical heat warmers at the wrist increased heat loss, possibly through the exposed area around the warmer.

Glove and mitten protection in extreme cold weather: an Antarctic study.

PubMed

Iserson, Kenneth V

2016-01-01

Myths, misconceptions and a general lack of information surround the use of gloves and mittens in extreme cold environments. This study assessed how well an assortment of gloves and mittens performed in a very cold environment. A convenience sample of gloves and mittens were tested in Antarctica during the winter of 2016 using a calibrated thermometer (range: -148°F to +158°F/-100°C to +70°C) three times over a 0.5-mile distance (~20 minutes). A small sensor on a 10-foot-long cable was taped to the radial surface of the distal small finger on the non-dominant hand. The tested clothing was donned over the probe, the maximum temperature inside the glove/mitten was established near a building exit (ambient temperature approximately 54°F/12°C), and the building was exited, initiating the test. The hand was kept immobile during the test. Some non-heated gloves were tested with chemical heat warmers placed over the volar or dorsal wrist. The highest starting (96°F/36°C) and ending (82°F/28°C) temperatures were with electrically heated gloves. The lowest starting temperature was with electrically heated gloves with the power off (63°F/17°C). Non-heated gloves with an inserted chemical hand warmer had the lowest minimum temperature (33°F/1°C). Maximum temperatures for gloves/mittens did not correlate well with their minimum temperature. Coverings that maintained finger temperatures within a comfortable and safe range (at or above 59°F/15°C) included the heated gloves and mittens (including some with the power off) and mittens with liners. Mittens without liners (shell) generally performed better than unheated gloves. Better results generally paralleled the item's cost. Inserting chemical heat warmers at the wrist increased heat loss, possibly through the exposed area around the warmer.

Logit-normal mixed model for Indian Monsoon rainfall extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dietz, L. R.; Chatterjee, S.

2014-03-01

Describing the nature and variability of Indian monsoon rainfall extremes is a topic of much debate in the current literature. We suggest the use of a generalized linear mixed model (GLMM), specifically, the logit-normal mixed model, to describe the underlying structure of this complex climatic event. Several GLMM algorithms are described and simulations are performed to vet these algorithms before applying them to the Indian precipitation data procured from the National Climatic Data Center. The logit-normal model was applied with fixed covariates of latitude, longitude, elevation, daily minimum and maximum temperatures with a random intercept by weather station. In general, the estimation methods concurred in their suggestion of a relationship between the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and extreme rainfall variability estimates. This work provides a valuable starting point for extending GLMM to incorporate the intricate dependencies in extreme climate events.

Do the Brazilian sardine commercial landings respond to local ocean circulation?

PubMed Central

Gherardi, Douglas F. M.; Lentini, Carlos A. D.; Dias, Daniela F.; Campos, Paula C.

2017-01-01

It has been reported that sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, flow intensity and mesoscale ocean processes, all affect sardine production, both in eastern and western boundary current systems. Here we tested the hypothesis whether extreme high and low commercial landings of the Brazilian sardine fisheries in the South Brazil Bight (SBB) are sensitive to different oceanic conditions. An ocean model (ROMS) and an individual based model (Ichthyop) were used to assess the relationship between oceanic conditions during the spawning season and commercial landings of the Brazilian sardine one year later. Model output was compared with remote sensing and analysis data showing good consistency. Simulations indicate that mortality of eggs and larvae by low temperature prior to maximum and minimum landings are significantly higher than mortality caused by offshore advection. However, when periods of maximum and minimum sardine landings are compared with respect to these causes of mortality no significant differences were detected. Results indicate that mortality caused by prevailing oceanic conditions at early life stages alone can not be invoked to explain the observed extreme commercial landings of the Brazilian sardine. Likely influencing factors include starvation and predation interacting with the strategy of spawning “at the right place and at the right time”. PMID:28489925

Climate model studies of synchronously rotating planets.

PubMed

Joshi, Manoj

2003-01-01

M stars constitute 75% of main sequence stars though, until recently, their star systems have not been considered suitable places for habitable planets to exist. In this study the climate of a synchronously rotating planet around an M dwarf star is evaluated using a three-dimensional global atmospheric circulation model. The presence of clouds and evaporative cooling at the surface of the planet result in a cooler surface temperature at the subsolar point. Water ice forms at the polar regions and on the dark side, where the minimum temperature lies between -30 degrees C and 0 degrees C. As expected, rainfall is extremely high on the starlit side and extremely low on the dark side. The presence of a dry continent causes higher temperatures on the dayside, and allows accumulation of snow on the nightside. The absence of any oceans leads to higher day-night temperature differences, consistent with previous work. The present study reinforces recent conclusions that synchronously rotating planets within the circumstellar habitable zones of M dwarf stars should be habitable, and therefore M dwarf systems should not be excluded in future searches for exoplanets.

Impacts of an Extreme Early-Season Freeze Event in the Interior Pacific Northwest (30 October-3 November 2002) on Western Juniper Woodlands.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knapp, Paul A.; Soulé, Peter T.

2005-07-01

In mid-autumn 2002, an exceptional 5-day cold spell affected much of the interior Pacific Northwest, with minimum temperatures averaging 13°C below long-term means (1953-2002). On 31 October, minimum temperature records occurred at 98 of the 106 recording stations, with records lowered in some locations by 9°C. Calculation of recurrence intervals of minimum temperatures shows that 50% of the stations experienced a >500-yr event. The synoptic conditions responsible were the development of a pronounced high pressure ridge over western Canada and an intense low pressure area centered in the Intermountain West that promoted strong northeasterly winds. The cold spell occurred near the end of the growing season for an ecologically critical and dominant tree species of the interior Pacific Northwest—western juniper—and followed an extended period of severe drought. In spring 2003, it became apparent that the cold had caused high rates of tree mortality and canopy dieback in a species that is remarkable for its longevity and resistance to climatic stress. The cold event altered western juniper dominance in some areas, and this alteration may have long-term impacts on water budgets, fire intensities and frequencies, animal species interrelationships, and interspecific competition among plant species.

Trend analysis of air temperature and precipitation time series over Greece: 1955-2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marougianni, G.; Melas, D.; Kioutsioukis, I.; Feidas, H.; Zanis, P.; Anandranistakis, E.

2012-04-01

In this study, a database of air temperature and precipitation time series from the network of Hellenic National Meteorological Service has been developed in the framework of the project GEOCLIMA, co-financed by the European Union and Greek national funds through the Operational Program "Competitiveness and Entrepreneurship" of the Research Funding Program COOPERATION 2009. Initially, a quality test was applied to the raw data and then missing observations have been imputed with a regularized, spatial-temporal expectation - maximization algorithm to complete the climatic record. Next, a quantile - matching algorithm was applied in order to verify the homogeneity of the data. The processed time series were used for the calculation of temporal annual and seasonal trends of air temperature and precipitation. Monthly maximum and minimum surface air temperature and precipitation means at all available stations in Greece were analyzed for temporal trends and spatial variation patterns for the longest common time period of homogenous data (1955 - 2010), applying the Mann-Kendall test. The majority of the examined stations showed a significant increase in the summer maximum and minimum temperatures; this could be possibly physically linked to the Etesian winds, because of the less frequent expansion of the low over the southeastern Mediterranean. Summer minimum temperatures have been increasing at a faster rate than that of summer maximum temperatures, reflecting an asymmetric change of extreme temperature distributions. Total annual precipitation has been significantly decreased at the stations located in western Greece, as well as in the southeast, while the remaining areas exhibit a non-significant negative trend. This reduction is very likely linked to the positive phase of the NAO that resulted in an increase in the frequency and persistence of anticyclones over the Mediterranean.

What caused the Extreme Storm Season over the North Atlantic and the UK in Winter 2013-14?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leckebusch, G. C.; Wild, S.; Befort, D. J.

2015-12-01

In winter 2013-2014, the UK experienced exceptional stormy and rainy weather conditions. Concurrently, surface temperatures over large parts of central North America fell to near record minimum values. One potential driver for these cold conditions is discussed to be the increasingly warm surface waters of the tropical west Pacific. It has been suggested these increasing sea surface temperatures could also be the cause for extreme weather over the British Isles. Testing this hypothesis, we investigate mechanisms linking the tropical west Pacific and European wind storm activity. We focus on two research questions. Firstly: Was a chain of anomaly patterns with origin in the west Pacific present in the winter 2013-14? And secondly: Can centres of action along such a chain be identified with a strong interannual relationship in the recent past? Our results, using primarily ERA-Interim Reanalysis from 1979 to 2014, show an absolute maximum of wind storm frequency over the northeast Atlantic and the British Isles in winter 2013-14. We also find absolute minimum surface temperatures in central North America and increased convective activity over the tropical west Pacific in the same season. The winter 2013-14 was additionally characterized by anomalous warm sea surface temperatures over the subtropical northwest Atlantic. Although the interannual variability of wind storms in the northeast Atlantic and surface temperatures in North America are significantly anti-correlated, we cannot directly relate wind storm frequency with tropical west Pacific anomalies. We thus conclude that the conditions over the Pacific in winter 2013-14 were favourable but not sufficient to explain the record number of wind storms in this season. Instead, we suggest that warm north Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies in combination with cold surface temperatures over North America played a more important role for generating higher wind storm counts over the northeast Atlantic and the UK.

The West Nile Virus outbreak in Israel (2000) from a new perspective: the regional impact of climate change.

PubMed

Paz, Shlomit

2006-02-01

The West Nile Virus (WNV) outbreak in Israel in 2000 appeared after medical and climatic warning signs. Re-analysis of the epidemic from a new viewpoint, the regional impact of global warming, especially the worsening in the summers' heat conditions, is presented. The disease appeared averagely at a lag of 3-9 weeks (strongest correlation = lag of 7 weeks). The minimum temperature was found as the most important climatic factor that encourages the disease earlier appearance. Extreme heat is more significant than high air humidity for increasing WNV cases. An early extreme rise in the summer temperature could be a good indicator of increased vector populations. While 93.5% of cases were in the metropolitan areas, the disease was not reported in the sub-arid regions. The outbreak development was comparable to the cases from Romania (1996) and NYC (1999). Each of those epidemics appeared after a long heatwave.

Extreme climatic events drive mammal irruptions: regression analysis of 100-year trends in desert rainfall and temperature

PubMed Central

Greenville, Aaron C; Wardle, Glenda M; Dickman, Chris R

2012-01-01

Extreme climatic events, such as flooding rains, extended decadal droughts and heat waves have been identified increasingly as important regulators of natural populations. Climate models predict that global warming will drive changes in rainfall and increase the frequency and severity of extreme events. Consequently, to anticipate how organisms will respond we need to document how changes in extremes of temperature and rainfall compare to trends in the mean values of these variables and over what spatial scales the patterns are consistent. Using the longest historical weather records available for central Australia – 100 years – and quantile regression methods, we investigate if extreme climate events have changed at similar rates to median events, if annual rainfall has increased in variability, and if the frequency of large rainfall events has increased over this period. Specifically, we compared local (individual weather stations) and regional (Simpson Desert) spatial scales, and quantified trends in median (50th quantile) and extreme weather values (5th, 10th, 90th, and 95th quantiles). We found that median and extreme annual minimum and maximum temperatures have increased at both spatial scales over the past century. Rainfall changes have been inconsistent across the Simpson Desert; individual weather stations showed increases in annual rainfall, increased frequency of large rainfall events or more prolonged droughts, depending on the location. In contrast to our prediction, we found no evidence that intra-annual rainfall had become more variable over time. Using long-term live-trapping records (22 years) of desert small mammals as a case study, we demonstrate that irruptive events are driven by extreme rainfalls (>95th quantile) and that increases in the magnitude and frequency of extreme rainfall events are likely to drive changes in the populations of these species through direct and indirect changes in predation pressure and wildfires. PMID:23170202

Investigation of Changes in Extreme Temperature and Humidity Over China Through a Dynamical Downscaling Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Jinxin; Huang, Gordon; Wang, Xiuquan; Cheng, Guanhui

2017-11-01

Impacts of climate change relating to public health are often determined by multiple climate variables. The health-related metrics combining high-temperature and relative humidity are most concerned. Temperatures, relative humidity and relationship among them are investigated here for a comprehensive assessment of climate change impacts over China. A projection of combined temperatures and humidity through the PRECIS model is addressed. The PRECIS model's skill in reproducing the historical climate over China was first gauged through validating its historical simulation with the observation data set in terms of the two contributing variables. With good results of validation, a plausible range of combined temperatures and relative humidity were generated under RCPs. The results suggested that the annual mean temperature of China will increase up to 6°C at the end of 21st century. Opposite to the significantly change in the temperature, the maximum magnitude of changes in relative humidity is only 8% from the value in the baseline period. The dew point temperature is projected to be 14.9°C (within the comfortable interval) over the whole nation under high radiative forcing scenario at the end of this century. Therefore, the combination effects of high temperatures and relative humidity are substantially smaller than generally anticipated for China. Even though the impact-relevant metric like the dew point temperature is not projected as bad as the generally anticipated, we found that the frequency of high-temperature extremes increases up to 40% and the duration increases up to 150% in China. China is still expected to have more number of extremely hot days, more frequent high-temperature extremes, and longer duration of warm spell than before. Regionally, South China has the smallest changes in the mean, maximum and minimum temperatures while the largest increases in all five high-temperature indices. Consequently, the climate over South China for two future periods will be changing more drastically than the baseline period. Extra cautions need to be given to South China in the future.

A pantropical analysis of the impacts of forest degradation and conversion on local temperature.

PubMed

Senior, Rebecca A; Hill, Jane K; González Del Pliego, Pamela; Goode, Laurel K; Edwards, David P

2017-10-01

Temperature is a core component of a species' fundamental niche. At the fine scale over which most organisms experience climate (mm to ha), temperature depends upon the amount of radiation reaching the Earth's surface, which is principally governed by vegetation. Tropical regions have undergone widespread and extreme changes to vegetation, particularly through the degradation and conversion of rainforests. As most terrestrial biodiversity is in the tropics, and many of these species possess narrow thermal limits, it is important to identify local thermal impacts of rainforest degradation and conversion. We collected pantropical, site-level (<1 ha) temperature data from the literature to quantify impacts of land-use change on local temperatures, and to examine whether this relationship differed aboveground relative to belowground and between wet and dry seasons. We found that local temperature in our sample sites was higher than primary forest in all human-impacted land-use types (N = 113,894 daytime temperature measurements from 25 studies). Warming was pronounced following conversion of forest to agricultural land (minimum +1.6°C, maximum +13.6°C), but minimal and nonsignificant when compared to forest degradation (e.g., by selective logging; minimum +1°C, maximum +1.1°C). The effect was buffered belowground (minimum buffering 0°C, maximum buffering 11.4°C), whereas seasonality had minimal impact (maximum buffering 1.9°C). We conclude that forest-dependent species that persist following conversion of rainforest have experienced substantial local warming. Deforestation pushes these species closer to their thermal limits, making it more likely that compounding effects of future perturbations, such as severe droughts and global warming, will exceed species' tolerances. By contrast, degraded forests and belowground habitats may provide important refugia for thermally restricted species in landscapes dominated by agricultural land.

Mapping Topoclimate and Microclimate in the Monarch Butterfly Biosphere Reserve, Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weiss, S. B.

2006-12-01

Overwintering monarch butterflies in Mexico select areas of the high elevation Oyamel fir -pine forest providing a canopy that protects them from extremes of cold, heat, sun, and wind. These exacting microclimatic conditions are found in relatively small areas of forest with appropriate topography and canopy cover. The major goal of this investigation is to map topoclimatic and microclimatic conditions within the Monarch Butterfly Biosphere Reserve by combining temperature monitoring (iButton Thermochrons), hemispherical canopy photography, multiple regression, and GIS modeling. Temperature measurements included base weather stations and arrays of Thermochrons (on the north-side of trees at 2m height) across local topographic and canopy cover gradients. Topoclimatic models of minimum temperatures included topographic position, slope, and elevation, and predicted that thermal belts on slopes and cold air drainage into canyons create local minimum temperature gradients of 2°C. Topoclimatic models of maximum temperatures models included elevation, topographic position, and relative solar exposure, with local gradients of 3°C. These models, which are independent of forest canopy structure, were then projected across the entire region. Forest canopy structure, including direct and diffuse solar radiation, was assessed with hemispherical photography at each Thermochron site. Canopy cover affected minimum temperatures primarily on the calmest, coldest nights. Maximum temperatures were predicted by direct radiation below the canopy. Fine- scale grids (25 m spacing) at three overwintering sites characterized effects of canopy gaps and edges on temperature and wind exposure. The effects of temperature variation were considered for lipid loss rates, ability to take flight, and freezing mortality. Lipid loss rates were estimated by measured hourly temperatures. Many of the closed canopy sites allowed for substantial lipid reserves at the end of the season (March 15), but increases in average temperature could effectively deplete lipids by that time. The large influence of canopy cover on daytime maximum temperatures demonstrates that forest thinning directly reduces habitat suitability. Monarchs' flight behavior under warmer conditions suggests that daytime temperatures drive the dynamics of monarch distribution within colonies. Thinning also decreases nighttime minimum temperatures, and increases wind exposure. These results create a basis for quantitative understanding of the combinations of topography and forest structure that provide high quality overwintering habitat.

Recent warming trend in the coastal region of Qatar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Way Lee; Saleem, Ayman; Sadr, Reza

2017-04-01

The objective of this study was to analyze long-term temperature-related phenomena in the eastern portion of the Middle East, focusing on the coastal region of Qatar. Extreme temperature indices were examined, which were defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices, for Doha, Qatar; these indices were then compared with those from neighboring countries. The trends were calculated for a 30-year period (1983-2012), using hourly data obtained from the National Climatic Data Center. The results showed spatially consistent warming trends throughout the region. For Doha, 11 of the 12 indices studied showed significant warming trends. In particular, the warming trends were represented by an increase in the number of warm days and nights and a decrease in the number of cool nights and days. The high-temperature extremes during the night have risen at more than twice the rate of their corresponding daytime extremes. The intensity and frequency of hot days have increased, and the minimum temperature indices exhibited a higher rate of warming. The climatic changes in Doha are consistent with the region-wide heat-up in recent decades across the Middle East. However, the rapid economic expansion, increase of population since the 1990s, and urban effects in the region are thought to have intensified the rapidly warming climate pattern observed in Doha since the turn of the century.

Climate Exposure of US National Parks in a New Era of Change

PubMed Central

Monahan, William B.; Fisichelli, Nicholas A.

2014-01-01

US national parks are challenged by climate and other forms of broad-scale environmental change that operate beyond administrative boundaries and in some instances are occurring at especially rapid rates. Here, we evaluate the climate change exposure of 289 natural resource parks administered by the US National Park Service (NPS), and ask which are presently (past 10 to 30 years) experiencing extreme (<5th percentile or >95th percentile) climates relative to their 1901–2012 historical range of variability (HRV). We consider parks in a landscape context (including surrounding 30 km) and evaluate both mean and inter-annual variation in 25 biologically relevant climate variables related to temperature, precipitation, frost and wet day frequencies, vapor pressure, cloud cover, and seasonality. We also consider sensitivity of findings to the moving time window of analysis (10, 20, and 30 year windows). Results show that parks are overwhelmingly at the extreme warm end of historical temperature distributions and this is true for several variables (e.g., annual mean temperature, minimum temperature of the coldest month, mean temperature of the warmest quarter). Precipitation and other moisture patterns are geographically more heterogeneous across parks and show greater variation among variables. Across climate variables, recent inter-annual variation is generally well within the range of variability observed since 1901. Moving window size has a measureable effect on these estimates, but parks with extreme climates also tend to exhibit low sensitivity to the time window of analysis. We highlight particular parks that illustrate different extremes and may facilitate understanding responses of park resources to ongoing climate change. We conclude with discussion of how results relate to anticipated future changes in climate, as well as how they can inform NPS and neighboring land management and planning in a new era of change. PMID:24988483

Climate exposure of US national parks in a new era of change.

PubMed

Monahan, William B; Fisichelli, Nicholas A

2014-01-01

US national parks are challenged by climate and other forms of broad-scale environmental change that operate beyond administrative boundaries and in some instances are occurring at especially rapid rates. Here, we evaluate the climate change exposure of 289 natural resource parks administered by the US National Park Service (NPS), and ask which are presently (past 10 to 30 years) experiencing extreme (<5th percentile or >95th percentile) climates relative to their 1901-2012 historical range of variability (HRV). We consider parks in a landscape context (including surrounding 30 km) and evaluate both mean and inter-annual variation in 25 biologically relevant climate variables related to temperature, precipitation, frost and wet day frequencies, vapor pressure, cloud cover, and seasonality. We also consider sensitivity of findings to the moving time window of analysis (10, 20, and 30 year windows). Results show that parks are overwhelmingly at the extreme warm end of historical temperature distributions and this is true for several variables (e.g., annual mean temperature, minimum temperature of the coldest month, mean temperature of the warmest quarter). Precipitation and other moisture patterns are geographically more heterogeneous across parks and show greater variation among variables. Across climate variables, recent inter-annual variation is generally well within the range of variability observed since 1901. Moving window size has a measureable effect on these estimates, but parks with extreme climates also tend to exhibit low sensitivity to the time window of analysis. We highlight particular parks that illustrate different extremes and may facilitate understanding responses of park resources to ongoing climate change. We conclude with discussion of how results relate to anticipated future changes in climate, as well as how they can inform NPS and neighboring land management and planning in a new era of change.

Mortality related to cold and heat. What do we learn from dairy cattle?

PubMed Central

Cox, Bianca; Gasparrini, Antonio; Catry, Boudewijn; Delcloo, Andy; Bijnens, Esmée; Vangronsveld, Jaco; Nawrot, Tim S.

2016-01-01

Extreme temperatures are associated with increased mortality among humans. Because similar epidemiologic studies in animals may add to the existing evidence, we investigated the association between ambient temperature and the risk of mortality among dairy cattle. We used data on 87,108 dairy cow deaths in Belgium from 2006 to 2009, and we combined a case-crossover design with distributed lag non-linear models. Province-specific results were combined in a multivariate meta-analysis. Relative to the estimated minimum mortality temperature of 15.4 °C (75th percentile), the pooled cumulative relative risks over lag 0–25 days were 1.26 (95% CI: 1.11, 1.42) for extreme cold (1st percentile, −3.5 °C), 1.35 (95% CI: 1.19, 1.54) for moderate cold (5th percentile, −0.3 °C), 1.09 (95% CI: 1.02, 1.17) for moderate heat (95th percentile, 19.7 °C), and 1.26 (95% CI: 1.08; 1.48) for extreme heat (99th percentile, 22.6 °C). The temporal pattern of the temperature-mortality association was similar to that observed in humans, i.e. acute effects of heat and delayed and prolonged effects of cold. Seasonal analyses suggested that most of the temperature-related mortality, including cold effects, occurred in the warm season. Our study reinforces the evidence on the plausibility of causal effects in humans. PMID:27236362

Spatial vulnerability of Australian urban populations to extreme heat events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loughnan, Margaret; Tapper, Nigel; Phan, Thu; Lynch, Kellie; McInnes, Judith

2013-04-01

Extreme heat events pose a risk to the health of all individuals, especially the elderly and the chronically ill, and are associated with an increased demand for healthcare services. In order to address this problem, policy makers' need information about temperatures above which mortality and morbidity of the exposed population is likely to increase, where the vulnerable groups in the community are located, and how the risks from extreme heat events are likely to change in the future. This study identified threshold temperatures for all Australian capital cities, developed a spatial index of population vulnerability, and used climate model output to predict changes in the number of days exceeding temperature thresholds in the future, as well as changes in risk related to changes in urban density and an ageing population. The study has shown that daily maximum and minimum temperatures from the Bureau of Meteorology forecasts can be used to calculate temperature thresholds for heat alert days. The key risk factors related to adverse health outcomes were found to be areas with intense urban heat islands, areas with higher proportions of older people, and areas with ethnic communities. Maps of spatial vulnerability have been developed to provide information to assist emergency managers, healthcare professionals, and ancillary services develop heatwave preparedness plans at a local scale that target vulnerable groups and address heat-related health risks. The numbers of days exceeding current heat thresholds are predicted to increase over the next 20 to 40 years in all Australian capital cities.

The impact of environmental factors on marine turtle stranding rates

PubMed Central

Flint, Mark; Limpus, Colin J.; Mills, Paul C.

2017-01-01

Globally, tropical and subtropical regions have experienced an increased frequency and intensity in extreme weather events, ranging from severe drought to protracted rain depressions and cyclones, these coincided with an increased number of marine turtles subsequently reported stranded. This study investigated the relationship between environmental variables and marine turtle stranding. The environmental variables examined in this study, in descending order of importance, were freshwater discharge, monthly mean maximum and minimum air temperatures, monthly average daily diurnal air temperature difference and rainfall for the latitudinal hotspots (-27°, -25°, -23°, -19°) along the Queensland coast as well as for major embayments within these blocks. This study found that marine turtle strandings can be linked to these environmental variables at different lag times (3–12 months), and that cumulative (months added together for maximum lag) and non-cumulative (single month only) effects cause different responses. Different latitudes also showed different responses of marine turtle strandings, both in response direction and timing.Cumulative effects of freshwater discharge in all latitudes resulted in increased strandings 10–12 months later. For latitudes -27°, -25° and -23° non-cumulative effects for discharge resulted in increased strandings 7–12 months later. Latitude -19° had different results for the non-cumulative bay with strandings reported earlier (3–6 months). Monthly mean maximum and minimum air temperatures, monthly average daily diurnal air temperature difference and rainfall had varying results for each examined latitude. This study will allow first responders and resource managers to be better equipped to deal with increased marine turtle stranding rates following extreme weather events. PMID:28771635

Spatial-temporal changes of maximum and minimum temperatures in the Wei River Basin, China: Changing patterns, causes and implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Saiyan; Huang, Shengzhi; Xie, Yangyang; Huang, Qiang; Leng, Guoyong; Hou, Beibei; Zhang, Ying; Wei, Xiu

2018-05-01

Due to the important role of temperature in the global climate system and energy cycles, it is important to investigate the spatial-temporal change patterns, causes and implications of annual maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperatures. In this study, the Cloud model were adopted to fully and accurately analyze the changing patterns of annual Tmax and Tmin from 1958 to 2008 by quantifying their mean, uniformity, and stability in the Wei River Basin (WRB), a typical arid and semi-arid region in China. Additionally, the cross wavelet analysis was applied to explore the correlations among annual Tmax and Tmin and the yearly sunspots number, Arctic Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and soil moisture with an aim to determine possible causes of annual Tmax and Tmin variations. Furthermore, temperature-related impacts on vegetation cover and precipitation extremes were also examined. Results indicated that: (1) the WRB is characterized by increasing trends in annual Tmax and Tmin, with a more evident increasing trend in annual Tmin, which has a higher dispersion degree and is less uniform and stable than annual Tmax; (2) the asymmetric variations of Tmax and Tmin can be generally explained by the stronger effects of solar activity (primarily), large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns, and soil moisture on annual Tmin than on annual Tmax; and (3) increasing annual Tmax and Tmin have exerted strong influences on local precipitation extremes, in terms of their duration, intensity, and frequency in the WRB. This study presents new analyses of Tmax and Tmin in the WRB, and the findings may help guide regional agricultural production and water resources management.

Interannual-to-multidecadal hydroclimate variability and its sectoral impacts in northeastern Argentina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lovino, Miguel A.; Müller, Omar V.; Müller, Gabriela V.; Sgroi, Leandro C.; Baethgen, Walter E.

2018-06-01

This study examines the joint variability of precipitation, river streamflow and temperature over northeastern Argentina; advances the understanding of their links with global SST forcing; and discusses their impacts on water resources, agriculture and human settlements. The leading patterns of variability, and their nonlinear trends and cycles are identified by means of a principal component analysis (PCA) complemented with a singular spectrum analysis (SSA). Interannual hydroclimatic variability centers on two broad frequency bands: one of 2.5-6.5 years corresponding to El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) periodicities and the second of about 9 years. The higher frequencies of the precipitation variability (2.5-4 years) favored extreme events after 2000, even during moderate extreme phases of the ENSO. Minimum temperature is correlated with ENSO with a main frequency close to 3 years. Maximum temperature time series correlate well with SST variability over the South Atlantic, Indian and Pacific oceans with a 9-year frequency. Interdecadal variability is characterized by low-frequency trends and multidecadal oscillations that have induced a transition from dryer and cooler climate to wetter and warmer decades starting in the mid-twentieth century. The Paraná River streamflow is influenced by North and South Atlantic SSTs with bidecadal periodicities. The hydroclimate variability at all timescales had significant sectoral impacts. Frequent wet events between 1970 and 2005 favored floods that affected agricultural and livestock productivity and forced population displacements. On the other hand, agricultural droughts resulted in soil moisture deficits that affected crops at critical growth stages. Hydrological droughts affected surface water resources, causing water and food scarcity and stressing the capacity for hydropower generation. Lastly, increases in minimum temperature reduced wheat and barley yields.

People as sensors: mass media and local temperature influence climate change discussion on Twitter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirilenko, A.; Molodtsova, T.; Stepchenkova, S.

2014-12-01

We examined whether people living under significant temperature anomalies connect their sensory experiences to climate change and the role that media plays in this process. We used Twitter messages containing words "climate change" and "global warming" as the indicator of attention that public pays to the issue. Specifically, the goals were: (1) to investigate whether people immediately notice significant local weather anomalies and connect them to climate change and (2) to examine the role of mass media in this process. Over 2 million tweets were collected for a two-year period (2012 - 2013) and were assigned to 157 urban areas in the continental USA (Figure 1). Geographical locations of the tweets were identified with a geolocation resolving algorithm based the profile of the users. Daily number of tweets (tweeting rate) was computed for 157 conterminous USA urban areas and adjusted for data acquisition errors. The USHCN daily minimum and maximum temperatures were obtained for the station locations closest to the centers of the urban areas and the 1981-2010 30-year temperature mean and standard deviation were used as the climate normals. For the analysis, we computed the following indices for each day of 2012 - 2013 period: standardized temperature anomaly, absolute standardized temperature anomaly, and extreme cold and hot temperature anomalies for each urban zone. The extreme cold and hot temperature anomalies were then transformed into country-level values that represent the number of people living in extreme temperature conditions. The rate of tweeting on climate change was regressed on the time variables, number of climate change publications in the mass media, and temperature. In the majority of regression models, the mass media and temperature variables were significant at the p<0.001 level. Additionally, we did not find convincing evidence that the media acts as a mediator in the relationship between local weather and climate change discourse intensity. Our analysis of Twitter data confirmed that the public is able to recognize extreme temperature anomalies and connects these anomalies to climate change. Finally, we demonstrated the utility of social network data for research on public climate change perception.

Evaluation of Prospective Changes in Temperature Extremes for the CORDEX-Australasia Domain Using the NEX-GDDP Dataset

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turp, M. Tufan; An, Nazan; Kurnaz, M. Levent

2017-04-01

CORDEX-Australasia is a vast domain where comprises primarily Australia, New Zealand, and Papua New Guinea whilst it also covers the islands in the Pacific Ocean such as New Caledonia, Fiji, Tonga, Tuvalu, and Vanuatu as well. Climate of Australasia varies from tropical monsoonal and arid to moist temperate and alpine. The number of studies about the domain of Australasia is very limited and it is in urgent need of further efforts. This research points out the relationship between the climate change and temperature extremes over the domain of Australasia and it investigates the changes in the number of some specific temperature extreme indices (i.e. summer days, consecutive summer days, heat wave duration, very warm days, tropical nights, etc.) as described by the joint CCl/CLIVAR/JCOMM Expert Team (ET) on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). All these extreme indices were also calculated using the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projection (NEX-GDDP) dataset. In this study, all these index computations have been employed by utilizing ACCESS1-0 and MPI-ESM-MR global circulation models' bias corrected daily minimum and maximum air temperature variables, which were statistically downscaled to a 0.25 degrees x 0.25 degrees spatial resolution by the Climate Analytics Group and NASA Ames Research Center, under both medium-low and high emission trajectories (i.e. RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Moreover, the analysis of the projected changes in the temperature extremes was applied for the period of 2081-2100 with respect to the reference period of 1986-2005. Acknowledgements: This research has been supported by Bogazici University Research Fund Grant Number 12220. Climate scenarios used were from the NEX-GDDP dataset, prepared by the Climate Analytics Group and NASA Ames Research Center using the NASA Earth Exchange, and distributed by the NASA Center for Climate Simulation (NCCS).

Spatiotemporal distribution characteristics and attribution of extreme regional low temperature event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, Tai-Chen; Zhang, Ke-Quan; Su, Hai-Jing; Wang, Xiao-Juan; Gong, Zhi-Qiang; Zhang, Wen-Yu

2015-10-01

Based on an objective identification technique for regional low temperature event (OITRLTE), the daily minimum temperature in China has been detected from 1960 to 2013. During this period, there were 60 regional extreme low temperature events (ERLTEs), which are included in the 690 regional low temperature events (RLTEs). The 60 ERLTEs are analyzed in this paper. The results show that in the last 50 years, the intensity of the ERLTEs has become weak; the number of lasted days has decreased; and, the affected area has become small. However, that situation has changed in this century. In terms of spatial distribution, the high intensity regions are mainly in Northern China while the high frequency regions concentrate in Central and Eastern China. According to the affected area of each event, the 60 ERLTEs are classified into six types. The atmospheric circulation background fields which correspond to these types are also analyzed. The results show that, influenced by stronger blocking highs of Ural and Lake Baikal, as well as stronger southward polar vortex and East Asia major trough at 500-hPa geopotential height, cold air from high latitudes is guided to move southward and abnormal northerly winds at 850 hPa makes the cold air blow into China along diverse paths, thereby forming different types of regional extreme low temperatures in winter. Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41305075), the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant Nos. 2012CB955203 and 2012CB955902), and the Special Scientific Research on Public Welfare Industry, China (Grant No. GYHY201306049).

[Response of indica rice spikelet differentiation and degeneration to air temperature and solar radiation of different sowing dates].

PubMed

Wang, Ya Liang; Zhang, Yu Ping; Xiang, Jing; Wang, Lei; Chen, Hui Zhe; Zhang, Yi Kai; Zhang, Wen Qian; Zhu, De Feng

2017-11-01

In this study, three rice varieties, including three-line hybrid indica rice Wuyou308 and Tianyouhuazhan, and inbred indica rice Huanghuazhan were used to investigate the effects of air temperature and solar radiation on rice growth duration and spikelet differentiation and degeneration. Ten sowing-date treatments were conducted in this field experiment. The results showed that the growth duration of three indica rice varieties were more sensitive to air temperature than to day-length. With average temperature increase of 1 ℃, panicle initiation advanced 1.5 days, but the panicle growth duration had no significant correlation with the temperature and day-length. The number of spikelets and differentiated spikelets revealed significant differences among different sowing dates. Increases in average temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, effective accumulated temperature, temperature gap and the solar radiation benefited dry matter accumulation and spikelet differentiation of all varieties. With increases of effective accumulated temperature, diurnal temperature gap and solar radiation by 50 ℃, 1 ℃, 50 MJ·m -2 during panicle initiation stage, the number of differentiated spikelets increased 10.5, 14.3, 17.1 respectively. The rate of degenerated spikelets had a quadratic correlation with air temperature, extreme high and low temperature aggravated spikelets degeneration, and low temperature stress made worse effect than high temperature stress. The rate of spikelet degeneration dramatically rose with the temperature falling below the critical temperature, the critical effective accumulated temperature, daily average temperature, daily maximum temperature and minimum temperature during panicle initiation were 550-600 ℃, 24.0-26.0 ℃, 32.0-34.0 ℃, 21.0-23.0 ℃, respectively. In practice, the natural condition of appropriate high temperature, large diurnal temperature gap and strong solar radiation were conducive to spikelet differentiation, and hindered the spikelet degeneration.

Plant Bioassay of Materials from the Blue River Dredging Project.

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-09-01

percent at nighttime temperature minimum. Day length varied from 14 hr in July to 11.5 hr in mid-October. No sup- plemental artificial lighting was used...included lid until seed germ- ination occurred. After germination , the lids were permanently removed. Common bermuda and C. esculentus were allowed to grow...species. 30. Seed germination and initial growth of red fescue, tall fes- cue, and Kentucky bluegrass were extremely slow. This was a result of the

Quantifying the relationship between extreme air pollution events and extreme weather events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Henian; Wang, Yuhang; Park, Tae-Won; Deng, Yi

2017-05-01

Extreme weather events can strongly affect surface air quality, which has become a major environmental factor to affect human health. Here, we examined the relationship between extreme ozone and PM2.5 (particular matter with an aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 μm) events and the representative meteorological parameters such as daily maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum relative humidity (RHmin), and minimum wind speed (Vmin), using the location-specific 95th or 5th percentile threshold derived from historical reanalysis data (30 years for ozone and 10 years for PM2.5). We found that ozone and PM2.5 extremes were decreasing over the years, reflecting EPA's tightened standards and effort on reducing the corresponding precursor's emissions. Annual ozone and PM2.5 extreme days were highly correlated with Tmax and RHmin, especially in the eastern U.S. They were positively (negatively) correlated with Vmin in urban (rural and suburban) stations. The overlapping ratios of ozone extreme days with Tmax were fairly constant, about 32%, and tended to be high in fall and low in winter. Ozone extreme days were most sensitive to Tmax, then RHmin, and least sensitive to Vmin. The majority of ozone extremes occurred when Tmax was between 300 K and 320 K, RHmin was less than 40%, and Vmin was less than 3 m/s. The number of annual extreme PM2.5 days was highly positively correlated with the extreme RHmin/Tmax days, with correlation coefficient between PM2.5/RHmin highest in urban and suburban regions and the correlation coefficient between PM2.5/Tmax highest in rural area. Tmax has more impact on PM2.5 extreme over the eastern U.S. Extreme PM2.5 days were more likely to occur at low RH conditions in the central and southeastern U.S., especially during spring time, and at high RH conditions in the northern U.S. and the Great Plains. Most extreme PM2.5 events occurred when Tmax was between 300 K and 320 K and RHmin was between 10% and 50%. Extreme PM2.5 days usually occurred when Vmin was under 2 m/s. However, during spring season in the Southeast and fall season in Northwest, high winds were found to accompany extreme PM2.5 days, likely reflecting the impact of fire emissions.

Planting data and wheat yield models. [Kansas, South Dakota, and U.S.S.R.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Feyerherm, A. M. (Principal Investigator)

1977-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. A variable date starter model for spring wheat depending on temperature was more precise than a fixed date model. The same conclusions for fall-planted wheat were not reached. If the largest and smallest of eight temperatures were used to estimate daily maximum and minimum temperatures; respectively, a 1-4 F bias would be introduced into these extremes. For Kansas, a reduction of 0.5 bushels/acre in the root-mean-square-error between model and SRS yields was achieved by a six fold increase (7 to 42) in the density of weather stations. An additional reduction of 0.3 b/A was achieved by incorporating losses due to rusts in the model.

Changes of the time-varying percentiles of daily extreme temperature in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Bin; Chen, Fang; Xu, Feng; Wang, Xinrui

2017-11-01

Identifying the air temperature frequency distributions and evaluating the trends in time-varying percentiles are very important for climate change studies. In order to get a better understanding of the recent temporal and spatial pattern of the temperature changes in China, we have calculated the trends in temporal-varying percentiles of the daily extreme air temperature firstly. Then we divide all the stations to get the spatial patterns for the percentile trends using the average linkage cluster analysis method. To make a comparison, the shifts of trends percentile frequency distribution from 1961-1985 to 1986-2010 are also examined. Important results in three aspects have been achieved: (1) In terms of the trends in temporal-varying percentiles of the daily extreme air temperature, the most intense warming for daily maximum air temperature (Tmax) was detected in the upper percentiles with a significant increasing tendency magnitude (>2.5 °C/50year), and the greatest warming for daily minimum air temperature (Tmin) occurred with very strong trends exceeding 4 °C/50year. (2) The relative coherent spatial patterns for the percentile trends were found, and stations for the whole country had been divided into three clusters. The three primary clusters were distributed regularly to some extent from north to south, indicating the possible large influence of the latitude. (3) The most significant shifts of trends percentile frequency distribution from 1961-1985 to 1986-2010 was found in Tmax. More than half part of the frequency distribution show negative trends less than -0.5 °C/50year in 1961-1985, while showing trends less than 2.5 °C/50year in 1986-2010.

An assessment of precipitation and surface air temperature over China by regional climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xueyuan; Tang, Jianping; Niu, Xiaorui; Wang, Shuyu

2016-12-01

An analysis of a 20-year summer time simulation of present-day climate (1989-2008) over China using four regional climate models coupled with different land surface models is carried out. The climatic means, interannual variability, linear trends, and extremes are examined, with focus on precipitation and near surface air temperature. The models are able to reproduce the basic features of the observed summer mean precipitation and temperature over China and the regional detail due to topographic forcing. Overall, the model performance is better for temperature than that of precipitation. The models reasonably grasp the major anomalies and standard deviations over China and the five subregions studied. The models generally reproduce the spatial pattern of high interannual variability over wet regions, and low variability over the dry regions. The models also capture well the variable temperature gradient increase to the north by latitude. Both the observed and simulated linear trend of precipitation shows a drying tendency over the Yangtze River Basin and wetting over South China. The models capture well the relatively small temperature trends in large areas of China. The models reasonably simulate the characteristics of extreme precipitation indices of heavy rain days and heavy precipitation fraction. Most of the models also performed well in capturing both the sign and magnitude of the daily maximum and minimum temperatures over China.

Early and late hot extremes, and elongation of the warm period over Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Founda, Dimitra; Giannakopoulos, Christos; Pierros, Fragiskos

2017-04-01

The eastern Mediterranean has been assigned as one of the most responsive areas in climate change, mainly with respect to the occurrence of warmer and drier conditions. In Greece in particular, observations suggest prominent increases in the summer air temperature which in some areas amount to approximately 1 0C/decade since the mid 1970s, while Regional Climate Models simulate further increases in the near and distant future. These changes are coupled with simultaneous increase in the occurrence of hot extremes. In addition to changes in the frequency and intensity of hot extrems, timing of occurrence is also of special interest. Early heat waves in particular, have been found to increase thermal risk in humans. The study explores variations and trends in timing, namely the date of first and last occurrence of hot extremes within the year, and subsequently the hot extremes period (season), defined as the time interval (number of days) between first and last hot extremes occurrence, over Greece. A case study for the area of Athens covering a longer than 100-years period (1897-2015) was conducted first, which will be extended to other Greek areas. Several heat related climatic indices were used, based either on predefined temperature thresholds such as 'tropical days' (daily maximum air temperature, Tmax >30 0C), 'tropical nights' (daily minimum air temperature, Tmin >20 0C), 'hot days' (Tmax >35 0C), or on local climate statistics such as days with Tmax (or Tmin) > 95th percentile. The analysis revealed significant changes in the period of hot extremes and specifically elongation of the period, attributed to early rather than late hot extremes occurrence. An earlier shift of the first tropical day and the first tropical night occurrence by approximately 2 days/decade was found over the study period. An overall elongation of the 'hot days' season by 2.6 days/decade was also observed, which is more prominent since the early 1980s. Over the last three decades, earlier shift of occurrence of days with Tmax > 37 0C and Tmin > 26 0C (corresponding to the 95th percentiles of summer Tmax and Tmin respectively for Athens) was striking, amounting to 8 days/decade. Our findings for the hot extremes period will be used to validate respective simulations of Regional Climate Models downscaled over the areas of interest.

Winter climatic condictions in Andalusia (southern Spain) during the Dalton Minimum from documentary sources.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodrigo, Fernando S.

2010-05-01

In this work, a reconstruction of winter rainfall and temperature in Andalusia (southern Iberia Peninsula) during the period 1750-1850 is presented. The reconstruction is based on the analysis of a wide variety of documentary data. This period is interesting because it is characterized by a minimum in the solar irradiance (Dalton Minimum, around 1800), as well as intense volcanic activity (for instance, the eruption of the Tambora in 1815), when the increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations were of minor importance. The reconstruction methodology is based on accounting the number of extreme events in past, and inferring mean value and standard deviation using the assumption of normal distribution for the climate variables. Results are compared with the behaviour of regional series for the reference period 1960-1990. The comparison of the distribution functions corresponding to 1790-1820 and 1960-1990 periods indicates that during the Dalton Minimum the frequency of droughts and warm winters was lesser than during the reference period, while the frequencies of wet and cold winters were similar. Future research work is outlined.

Relating rainfall characteristics to cloud top temperatures at different scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klein, Cornelia; Belušić, Danijel; Taylor, Christopher

2017-04-01

Extreme rainfall from mesoscale convective systems (MCS) poses a threat to lives and livelihoods of the West African population through increasingly frequent devastating flooding and loss of crops. However, despite the significant impact of such extreme events, the dominant processes favouring their occurrence are still under debate. In the data-sparse West African region, rainfall radar data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) gives invaluable information on the distribution and frequency of extreme rainfall. The TRMM 2A25 product provides a 15-year dataset of snapshots of surface rainfall from 2-4 overpasses per day. Whilst this sampling captures the overall rainfall characteristics, it is neither long nor frequent enough to diagnose changes in MCS properties, which may be linked to the trend towards rainfall intensification in the region. On the other hand, Meteosat geostationary satellites provide long-term sub-hourly records of cloud top temperatures, raising the possibility of combining these with the high-quality rainfall data from TRMM. In this study, we relate TRMM 2A25 rainfall to Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) cloud top temperatures, which are available from 2004 at 15 minutes intervals, to get a more detailed picture of the structure of intense rainfall within the life cycle of MCS. We find TRMM rainfall intensities within an MCS to be strongly coupled with MSG cloud top temperatures: the probability for extreme rainfall increases from <10% for minimum temperatures warmer than -40°C to over 70% when temperatures drop below -70°C, confirming the potential in analysing cloud-top temperatures as a proxy for extreme rain. The sheer size of MCS raises the question which scales of sub-cloud structures are more likely to be associated with extreme rain than others. In the end, this information could help to associate scale changes in cloud top temperatures with processes that affect the probability of extreme rain. We use 2D continuous wavelets to decompose cloud top temperatures into power spectra at scales between 15 and 200km. From these, cloud sub-structures are identified as circular areas of respective scale with local power maxima in their centre. These areas are then mapped onto coinciding TRMM rainfall, allowing us to assign rainfall fields to sub-cloud features of different scales. We find a higher probability for extreme rainfall for cloud features above a scale of 30km, with features 100km contributing most to the number of extreme rainfall pixels. Over the average diurnal cycle, the number of smaller cloud features between 15-60km shows an increase between 15 - 1700UTC, gradually developing into larger ones. The maximum of extreme rainfall pixels around 1900UTC coincides with a peak for scales 100km, suggesting a dominant role of these scales for intense rain for the analysed cloud type. Our results demonstrate the suitability of 2D wavelet decomposition for the analysis of sub-cloud structures and their relation to rainfall characteristics, and help us to understand long-term changes in the properties of MCS.

Will Half a Degree Make a Difference? Robust Projections of Indices of Mean and Extreme Climate in Europe Under 1.5°C, 2°C, and 3°C Global Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dosio, Alessandro; Fischer, Erich M.

2018-01-01

Based on high-resolution models, we investigate the change in climate extremes and impact-relevant indicators over Europe under different levels of global warming. We specifically assess the robustness of the changes and the benefits of limiting warming to 1.5°C instead of 2°C. Compared to 1.5°C world, a further 0.5°C warming results in a robust change of minimum summer temperature indices (mean, Tn10p, and Tn900p) over more than 70% of Europe. Robust changes (more than 0.5°C) in maximum temperature affect smaller areas (usually less than 20%). There is a substantial nonlinear change of fixed-threshold indices, with more than 60% increase of the number of tropical nights over southern Europe and more than 50% decrease in the number of frost days over central Europe. The change in mean precipitation due to 0.5°C warming is mostly nonsignificant at the grid point level, but, locally, it is accompanied by a more marked change in extreme rainfall.

DayRec: An Interface for Exploring United States Record-Maximum/Minimum Daily Temperatures

DOE Data Explorer

Kaiser, Dale [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

2015-01-01

Like politics, you might say that all climate is local. As researchers seek to help the public better understand climate and climate change, a sensible approach would include helping people know more about changes in their own backyards. High and low temperatures are something that all of us pay attention to each day; when they are extreme (flirting with or setting records) they generate tremendous interest, largely because of the potential for significant impacts on human health, the environment, and built infrastructure. Changes through time in record high and low temperatures (extremes) are also an important manifestation of climate change (Sect. 3.8 in Trenberth et al. 2007; Peterson et al. 2008; Peterson et al. 2012). Meehl et al. (2009) found that currently, about twice as many high temperature records are being set as low temperature records over the conterminous U.S. (lower 48 states) as a whole. As the climate warms further, this ratio is expected to multiply, mainly because when the whole temperature distribution for a location or region shifts, it changes the "tails" of the distribution (in the case of warming this means fewer extreme cold temperatures and more extreme hot temperatures; see Page 2, Figure ES.1 of Karl et al. 2008). The Meehl et al. (2009) findings were covered pretty well by the online media, but, as is the case for all types of scientifc studies, it's safe to say that most of the public are not aware of these basic findings, and they would benefit from additional ways to get climate extremes information for their own areas and assess it. One such way is the National Climatic Data Center's (NCDC) U.S. Records Look-Up page. But how do most people typically hear about their area's high and low temperature records? Likely via the evening news, when their local on-air meteorologist notes the high/low for the day at a nearby airport then gives the years when the all-time high and low for the date were set (perhaps not at that same airport). The year of the record is an interesting bit of information on its own but it doesn't do much to place things in context. What about the local history of record temperatures and how things may be changing? Here we present a daily temperature records data product that we hope will serve the scientist and non-scientist alike in exploring and analyzing high and low temperature records and trends at hundreds of locations across the U.S.

Trends and Projections of Climatic Extremes in the Black Volta Basin, West Africa: Towards Climate Change Adaptation.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aziz, F.

2015-12-01

The water resources of the Black Volta Basin in West Africa constitute a major resource for the four countries (Burkina Faso, Ghana, Côte d'Ivoire, Mali) that share it. For Burkina Faso and Ghana, the river is the main natural resource around which the development of the diverse sectors of the two economies is built. Whereas Ghana relies heavily on the river for energy, land-locked Burkina Faso continuously develops the water for agricultural purposes. Such important role of the river makes it an element around which there are potential conflicts: either among riparian countries or within the individual countries themselves. This study documents the changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the Black Volta Basin region for the past (1981-2010) and makes projections for the mid-late 21st century (2051-2080) under two emission scenarios; RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5. The Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) temperature- and precipitation-based indices are computed with the RClimdex software. Observed daily records and downscaled CORDEX data of precipitation and maximum and minimum temperatures are used for historical and future trend analysis respectively. In general low emission scenarios show increases in the cold extremes. The region shows a consistent pattern of trends in hot extremes for the 1990's. An increasing trend in hot extremes is expected in the future under RCP 8.5 while RCP 2.5 shows reductions in hot extremes. Regardless of the emission scenario, projections show more frequent hot nights in the 21st century. Generally, the region shows variability in trends for future extreme precipitation indices with only a few of the trends being statistically significant (5% level). Results obtained provide a basic and first step to understanding how climatic extremes have been changing in the Volta Basin region and gives an idea of what to expect in the future. Such studies will also help in making informed decisions on water management in the basin. The various water users; agriculture, household, industries will be able to prepare adequately and adapt to changes when they have information of the trends of extreme events well ahead of time.

Historical trends and extremes in boreal Alaska river basins

DOE PAGES

Bennett, Katrina E.; Cannon, Alex J.; Hinzman, Larry

2015-05-12

Climate change will shift the frequency, intensity, duration and persistence of extreme hydroclimate events and have particularly disastrous consequences in vulnerable systems such as the warm permafrost-dominated Interior region of boreal Alaska. This work focuses on recent research results from nonparametric trends and nonstationary generalized extreme value (GEV) analyses at eight Interior Alaskan river basins for the past 50/60 years (1954/64–2013). Trends analysis of maximum and minimum streamflow indicates a strong (>+50%) and statistically significant increase in 11-day flow events during the late fall/winter and during the snowmelt period (late April/mid-May), followed by a significant decrease in the 11-day flowmore » events during the post-snowmelt period (late May and into the summer). The April–May–June seasonal trends show significant decreases in maximum streamflow for snowmelt dominated systems (<–50%) and glacially influenced basins (–24% to –33%). Annual maximum streamflow trends indicate that most systems are experiencing declines, while minimum flow trends are largely increasing. Nonstationary GEV analysis identifies time-dependent changes in the distribution of spring extremes for snowmelt dominated and glacially dominated systems. Temperature in spring influences the glacial and high elevation snowmelt systems and winter precipitation drives changes in the snowmelt dominated basins. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation was associated with changes occurring in snowmelt dominated systems, and the Arctic Oscillation was linked to one lake dominated basin, with half of the basins exhibiting no change in response to climate variability. The paper indicates that broad scale studies examining trend and direction of change should employ multiple methods across various scales and consider regime dependent shifts to identify and understand changes in extreme streamflow within boreal forested watersheds of Alaska.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ozaki, N.; Nellis, W. J.; Mashimo, T.

Materials at high pressures and temperatures are of great current interest for warm dense matter physics, planetary sciences, and inertial fusion energy research. Shock-compression equation-of-state data and optical reflectivities of the fluid dense oxide, Gd 3Ga 5O 12 (GGG), were measured at extremely high pressures up to 2.6 TPa (26 Mbar) generated by high-power laser irradiation and magnetically-driven hypervelocity impacts. Above 0.75 TPa, the GGG Hugoniot data approach/reach a universal linear line of fluid metals, and the optical reflectivity most likely reaches a constant value indicating that GGG undergoes a crossover from fluid semiconductor to poor metal with minimum metallicmore » conductivity (MMC). These results suggest that most fluid compounds, e.g., strong planetary oxides, reach a common state on the universal Hugoniot of fluid metals (UHFM) with MMC at sufficiently extreme pressures and temperatures. Lastly, the systematic behaviors of warm dense fluid would be useful benchmarks for developing theoretical equation-of-state and transport models in the warm dense matter regime in determining computational predictions.« less

Minimum-Cost Aircraft Descent Trajectories with a Constrained Altitude Profile

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wu, Minghong G.; Sadovsky, Alexander V.

2015-01-01

An analytical formula for solving the speed profile that accrues minimum cost during an aircraft descent with a constrained altitude profile is derived. The optimal speed profile first reaches a certain speed, called the minimum-cost speed, as quickly as possible using an appropriate extreme value of thrust. The speed profile then stays on the minimum-cost speed as long as possible, before switching to an extreme value of thrust for the rest of the descent. The formula is applied to an actual arrival route and its sensitivity to winds and airlines' business objectives is analyzed.

Assessing the impact of extreme air temperature on fruit trees by modeling weather dependent phenology with variety-specific thermal requirements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alfieri, Silvia Maria; De Lorenzi, Francesca; Missere, Daniele; Buscaroli, Claudio; Menenti, Massimo

2013-04-01

Extremely high and extremely low temperature may have a terminal impact on the productivity of fruit tree if occurring at critical phases of development. Notorious examples are frost during flowering or extremely high temperature during fruit setting. The dates of occurrence of such critical phenological stages depend on the weather history from the start of the yearly development cycle in late autumn, thus the impact of climate extremes can only be evaluated correctly if the phenological development is modeled taking into account the weather history of the specific year being evaluated. Climate change impact may lead to a shift in timing of phenological stages and change in the duration of vegetative and reproductive phases. A changing climate can also exhibit a greater climatic variability producing quite large changes in the frequency of extreme climatic events. We propose a two-stage approach to evaluate the impact of predicted future climate on the productivity of fruit trees. The phenological development is modeled using phase - specific thermal times and variety specific thermal requirements for several cultivars of pear, apricot and peach. These requirements were estimated using phenological observations over several years in Emilia Romagna region and scientific literature. We calculated the dates of start and end of rest completion, bud swell, flowering, fruit setting and ripening stages , from late autumn through late summer. Then phase-specific minimum and maximum cardinal temperature were evaluated for present and future climate to estimate how frequently they occur during any critically sensitive phenological phase. This analysis has been done for past climate (1961 - 1990) and fifty realizations of a year representative of future climate (2021 - 2050). A delay in rest completion of about 10-20 days has been predicted for future climate for most of the cultivars. On the other hand the predicted rise in air temperature causes an earlier development of crops thus a reduction in the length of the different phenological stages. Despite the earlier timing of phenological phases may expose the crops to frost hazard, the mean increase of air temperature avoids relevant impacts on crops. The frequency of air temperatures higher than the cardinal temperatures is expected to increase by 5% compared with the reference 1961 - 1990 climate. The work was carried out within the Italian national project AGROSCENARI funded by the Ministry for Agricultural, Food and Forest Policies (MIPAAF, D.M. 8608/7303/2008)

Calculation of Gallium-metal-Arsenic phase diagrams

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Scofield, J. D.; Davison, J. E.; Ray, A. E.; Smith, S. R.

1991-01-01

Electrical contacts and metallization to GaAs solar cells must survive at high temperatures for several minutes under specific mission scenarios. The determination of which metallizations or alloy systems that are able to withstand extreme thermal excursions with minimum degradation to solar cell performance can be predicted by properly calculated temperature constitution phase diagrams. A method for calculating a ternary diagram and its three constituent binary phase diagrams is briefly outlined and ternary phase diagrams for three Ga-As-X alloy systems are presented. Free energy functions of the liquid and solid phase are approximated by the regular solution theory. Phase diagrams calculated using this method are presented for the Ga-As-Ge and Ga-As-Ag systems.

Event attribution: Human influence on the record-breaking cold event in January of 2016 in Eastern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qian, C.; Wang, J.; Dong, S.; Yin, H.; Burke, C.; Ciavarella, A.; Dong, B.; Freychet, N.; Lott, F. C.; Tett, S. F.

2017-12-01

It is controversial whether Asian mid-latitude cold surges are becoming more likely as a consequence of Arctic warming. Here, we present an event attribution study in mid-latitude Eastern China. A strong cold surge occurred during 21st-25th January 2016 affecting most areas of China, especially Eastern China. Daily minimum temperature (Tmin) records were broken at many stations. The area averaged anomaly of Tmin over the region (20-44N, 100-124E) for this pentad was the lowest temperature recorded since modern meteorological observations started in 1960. This cold event occurred in a background of the warmest winter Tmin since 1960. Given the vast damages caused by this extreme cold event in Eastern China and the previous mentioned controversy, it is compelling to investigate how much anthropogenic forcing agents have affected the probability of cold events with an intensity equal to or larger than the January 2016 extreme event. We use the Met Office Hadley Centre system for Attribution of extreme weather and Climate Events and station observations to investigate the effect of anthropogenic forcings on the likelihood of such a cold event. Anthropogenic influences are estimated to have reduced the likelihood of an extreme cold event in mid-winter with the intensity equal to or stronger than the record of 2016 in Eastern China by about 2/3.

Increased coronary heart disease and stroke hospitalisations from ambient temperatures in Ontario

PubMed Central

Bai, Li; Li, Qiongsi; Wang, Jun; Lavigne, Eric; Gasparrini, Antonio; Copes, Ray; Yagouti, Abderrahmane; Burnett, Richard T; Goldberg, Mark S; Cakmak, Sabit; Chen, Hong

2018-01-01

Objective To assess the associations between ambient temperatures and hospitalisations for coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke. Methods Our study comprised all residents living in Ontario, Canada, 1996–2013. For each of 14 health regions, we fitted a distributed lag non-linear model to estimate the cold and heat effects on hospitalisations from CHD, acute myocardial infarction (AMI), stroke and ischaemic stroke, respectively. These effects were pooled using a multivariate meta-analysis. We computed attributable hospitalisations for cold and heat, defined as temperatures above and below the optimum temperature (corresponding to the temperature of minimum morbidity) and for moderate and extreme temperatures, defined using cut-offs at the 2.5th and 97.5th temperature percentiles. Results Between 1996 and 2013, we identified 1.4 million hospitalisations from CHD and 355 837 from stroke across Ontario. On cold days with temperature corresponding to the 1st percentile of temperature distribution, we found a 9% increase in daily hospitalisations for CHD (95% CI 1% to 16%), 29% increase for AMI (95% CI 15% to 45%) and 11% increase for stroke (95% CI 1% to 22%) relative to days with an optimal temperature. High temperatures (the 99th percentile) also increased CHD hospitalisations by 6% (95% CI 1% to 11%) relative to the optimal temperature. These estimates translate into 2.49% of CHD hospitalisations attributable to cold and 1.20% from heat. Additionally, 1.71% of stroke hospitalisations were attributable to cold. Importantly, moderate temperatures, rather than extreme temperatures, yielded the most of the cardiovascular burdens from temperatures. Conclusions Ambient temperatures, especially in moderate ranges, may be an important risk factor for cardiovascular-related hospitalisations. PMID:29101264

Effects of Recent Minimum Temperature and Water Deficit Increases on Pinus pinaster Radial Growth and Wood Density in Southern Portugal.

PubMed

Kurz-Besson, Cathy B; Lousada, José L; Gaspar, Maria J; Correia, Isabel E; David, Teresa S; Soares, Pedro M M; Cardoso, Rita M; Russo, Ana; Varino, Filipa; Mériaux, Catherine; Trigo, Ricardo M; Gouveia, Célia M

2016-01-01

Western Iberia has recently shown increasing frequency of drought conditions coupled with heatwave events, leading to exacerbated limiting climatic conditions for plant growth. It is not clear to what extent wood growth and density of agroforestry species have suffered from such changes or recent extreme climate events. To address this question, tree-ring width and density chronologies were built for a Pinus pinaster stand in southern Portugal and correlated with climate variables, including the minimum, mean and maximum temperatures and the number of cold days. Monthly and maximum daily precipitations were also analyzed as well as dry spells. The drought effect was assessed using the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration (SPEI) multi-scalar drought index, between 1 to 24-months. The climate-growth/density relationships were evaluated for the period 1958-2011. We show that both wood radial growth and density highly benefit from the strong decay of cold days and the increase of minimum temperature. Yet the benefits are hindered by long-term water deficit, which results in different levels of impact on wood radial growth and density. Despite of the intensification of long-term water deficit, tree-ring width appears to benefit from the minimum temperature increase, whereas the effects of long-term droughts significantly prevail on tree-ring density. Our results further highlight the dependency of the species on deep water sources after the juvenile stage. The impact of climate changes on long-term droughts and their repercussion on the shallow groundwater table and P. pinaster's vulnerability are also discussed. This work provides relevant information for forest management in the semi-arid area of the Alentejo region of Portugal. It should ease the elaboration of mitigation strategies to assure P. pinaster's production capacity and quality in response to more arid conditions in the near future in the region.

Effects of Recent Minimum Temperature and Water Deficit Increases on Pinus pinaster Radial Growth and Wood Density in Southern Portugal

PubMed Central

Kurz-Besson, Cathy B.; Lousada, José L.; Gaspar, Maria J.; Correia, Isabel E.; David, Teresa S.; Soares, Pedro M. M.; Cardoso, Rita M.; Russo, Ana; Varino, Filipa; Mériaux, Catherine; Trigo, Ricardo M.; Gouveia, Célia M.

2016-01-01

Western Iberia has recently shown increasing frequency of drought conditions coupled with heatwave events, leading to exacerbated limiting climatic conditions for plant growth. It is not clear to what extent wood growth and density of agroforestry species have suffered from such changes or recent extreme climate events. To address this question, tree-ring width and density chronologies were built for a Pinus pinaster stand in southern Portugal and correlated with climate variables, including the minimum, mean and maximum temperatures and the number of cold days. Monthly and maximum daily precipitations were also analyzed as well as dry spells. The drought effect was assessed using the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration (SPEI) multi-scalar drought index, between 1 to 24-months. The climate-growth/density relationships were evaluated for the period 1958-2011. We show that both wood radial growth and density highly benefit from the strong decay of cold days and the increase of minimum temperature. Yet the benefits are hindered by long-term water deficit, which results in different levels of impact on wood radial growth and density. Despite of the intensification of long-term water deficit, tree-ring width appears to benefit from the minimum temperature increase, whereas the effects of long-term droughts significantly prevail on tree-ring density. Our results further highlight the dependency of the species on deep water sources after the juvenile stage. The impact of climate changes on long-term droughts and their repercussion on the shallow groundwater table and P. pinaster’s vulnerability are also discussed. This work provides relevant information for forest management in the semi-arid area of the Alentejo region of Portugal. It should ease the elaboration of mitigation strategies to assure P. pinaster’s production capacity and quality in response to more arid conditions in the near future in the region. PMID:27570527

Future Extreme Event Vulnerability in the Rural Northeastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winter, J.; Bowen, F. L.; Partridge, T.; Chipman, J. W.

2017-12-01

Future climate change impacts on humans will be determined by the convergence of evolving physical climate and socioeconomic systems. Of particular concern is the intersection of extreme events and vulnerable populations. Rural areas of the Northeastern United States have experienced increased temperature and precipitation extremes, especially over the past three decades, and face unique challenges due to their physical isolation, natural resources dependent economies, and high poverty rates. To explore the impacts of future extreme events on vulnerable, rural populations in the Northeast, we project extreme events and vulnerability indicators to identify where changes in extreme events and vulnerable populations coincide. Specifically, we analyze future (2046-2075) maximum annual daily temperature, minimum annual daily temperature, maximum annual daily precipitation, and maximum consecutive dry day length for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 using four global climate models (GCM) and a gridded observational dataset. We then overlay those projections with estimates of county-level population and relative income for 2060 to calculate changes in person-events from historical (1976-2005), with a focus on Northeast counties that have less than 250,000 people and are in the bottom income quartile. We find that across the rural Northeast for RCP4.5, heat person-events per year increase tenfold, far exceeding decreases in cold person-events and relatively small changes in precipitation and drought person-events. Counties in the bottom income quartile have historically (1976-2005) experienced a disproportionate number of heat events, and counties in the bottom two income quartiles are projected to experience a greater heat event increase by 2046-2075 than counties in the top two income quartiles. We further explore the relative contributions of event frequency, population, and income changes to the total and geographic distribution of climate change impacts on rural, vulnerable areas of the Northeast.

Validation of China-wide interpolated daily climate variables from 1960 to 2011

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Wenping; Xu, Bing; Chen, Zhuoqi; Xia, Jiangzhou; Xu, Wenfang; Chen, Yang; Wu, Xiaoxu; Fu, Yang

2015-02-01

Temporally and spatially continuous meteorological variables are increasingly in demand to support many different types of applications related to climate studies. Using measurements from 600 climate stations, a thin-plate spline method was applied to generate daily gridded climate datasets for mean air temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, relative humidity, sunshine duration, wind speed, atmospheric pressure, and precipitation over China for the period 1961-2011. A comprehensive evaluation of interpolated climate was conducted at 150 independent validation sites. The results showed superior performance for most of the estimated variables. Except for wind speed, determination coefficients ( R 2) varied from 0.65 to 0.90, and interpolations showed high consistency with observations. Most of the estimated climate variables showed relatively consistent accuracy among all seasons according to the root mean square error, R 2, and relative predictive error. The interpolated data correctly predicted the occurrence of daily precipitation at validation sites with an accuracy of 83 %. Moreover, the interpolation data successfully explained the interannual variability trend for the eight meteorological variables at most validation sites. Consistent interannual variability trends were observed at 66-95 % of the sites for the eight meteorological variables. Accuracy in distinguishing extreme weather events differed substantially among the meteorological variables. The interpolated data identified extreme events for the three temperature variables, relative humidity, and sunshine duration with an accuracy ranging from 63 to 77 %. However, for wind speed, air pressure, and precipitation, the interpolation model correctly identified only 41, 48, and 58 % of extreme events, respectively. The validation indicates that the interpolations can be applied with high confidence for the three temperatures variables, as well as relative humidity and sunshine duration based on the performance of these variables in estimating daily variations, interannual variability, and extreme events. Although longitude, latitude, and elevation data are included in the model, additional information, such as topography and cloud cover, should be integrated into the interpolation algorithm to improve performance in estimating wind speed, atmospheric pressure, and precipitation.

Supporting Climatic Trends of Corn and Soybean Production in the USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mishra, V.; Cherkauer, K. A.; Verdin, J. P.

2010-12-01

The United States of America (USA) is a major source of corn and soybeans, producing about 39 percent of the world’s corn and 50 percent of world’s soybean supply. The north central states, including parts of the Midwestern US and the Great Plains form what is commonly described as the “Corn Belt” and consist of the most productive grain growing region in the United States. Changes in climate, including precipitation and temperature, are being observed throughout the world, and the Corn Belt region of the US is not immune posing a potential threat to global food security. We conducted a retrospective analysis of observed climate variables and crop production statistics to evaluate if observed climatic trends are having a positive or negative effect on corn and soybean production in the US. We selected climate indices based on gridded daily precipitation, maximum and minimum air temperature data from the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) for the period of 1920-2009 and for 13 states in the Corn Belt region. We used the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) for different periods overlapping the important seasons for crop growths, such as the planting (April-May), grain-filling (June-August), and harvesting (September -October) seasons. We estimated the seasonal average of maximum and minimum daily temperatures to identify the historic trends and variability in air temperature during the key crop-growth seasons. Extreme warm temperatures can affect crop growth and yields adversely; therefore, cumulative maximum air temperature above the 90th percentiles (e.g. Cumulative Heat Index) was estimated for each growing period. We evaluated historic trends and variability of areal extents of severe or extreme droughts along with the areal extents facing the high cumulative heat stress. Our results showed that climatic extremes (e.g. droughts and heat stress) that occurred during the period of June - August (JJA), affected the yields of corn and soybeans most severely. High moisture and low heat stress during the JJA period favored crop yields, while low moisture and high heat conditions during the planting season (April-May) increased yields. Results also indicated that this part of the US is trending towards lower heat stress and drought extents, and higher moisture conditions during the JJA period. Therefore, in future, if the present trends persist, we expect the climate will more supportive of increased corn and soybean yields.

Time-series Analysis of Heat Waves and Emergency Department Visits in Atlanta, 1993 to 2012

PubMed Central

Chen, Tianqi; Sarnat, Stefanie E.; Grundstein, Andrew J.; Winquist, Andrea

2017-01-01

Background: Heat waves are extreme weather events that have been associated with adverse health outcomes. However, there is limited knowledge of heat waves’ impact on population morbidity, such as emergency department (ED) visits. Objectives: We investigated associations between heat waves and ED visits for 17 outcomes in Atlanta over a 20-year period, 1993–2012. Methods: Associations were estimated using Poisson log-linear models controlling for continuous air temperature, dew-point temperature, day of week, holidays, and time trends. We defined heat waves as periods of ≥2 consecutive days with temperatures beyond the 98th percentile of the temperature distribution over the period from 1945–2012. We considered six heat wave definitions using maximum, minimum, and average air temperatures and apparent temperatures. Associations by heat wave characteristics were examined. Results: Among all outcome-heat wave combinations, associations were strongest between ED visits for acute renal failure and heat waves defined by maximum apparent temperature at lag 0 [relative risk (RR) = 1.15; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.03–1.29], ED visits for ischemic stroke and heat waves defined by minimum temperature at lag 0 (RR = 1.09; 95% CI: 1.02–1.17), and ED visits for intestinal infection and heat waves defined by average temperature at lag 1 (RR = 1.10; 95% CI: 1.00–1.21). ED visits for all internal causes were associated with heat waves defined by maximum temperature at lag 1 (RR = 1.02; 95% CI: 1.00, 1.04). Conclusions: Heat waves can confer additional risks of ED visits beyond those of daily air temperature, even in a region with high air-conditioning prevalence. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP44 PMID:28599264

Time-series Analysis of Heat Waves and Emergency Department Visits in Atlanta, 1993 to 2012.

PubMed

Chen, Tianqi; Sarnat, Stefanie E; Grundstein, Andrew J; Winquist, Andrea; Chang, Howard H

2017-05-31

Heat waves are extreme weather events that have been associated with adverse health outcomes. However, there is limited knowledge of heat waves' impact on population morbidity, such as emergency department (ED) visits. We investigated associations between heat waves and ED visits for 17 outcomes in Atlanta over a 20-year period, 1993-2012. Associations were estimated using Poisson log-linear models controlling for continuous air temperature, dew-point temperature, day of week, holidays, and time trends. We defined heat waves as periods of consecutive days with temperatures beyond the 98th percentile of the temperature distribution over the period from 1945-2012. We considered six heat wave definitions using maximum, minimum, and average air temperatures and apparent temperatures. Associations by heat wave characteristics were examined. Among all outcome-heat wave combinations, associations were strongest between ED visits for acute renal failure and heat waves defined by maximum apparent temperature at lag 0 [relative risk (RR) = 1.15; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.03-1.29], ED visits for ischemic stroke and heat waves defined by minimum temperature at lag 0 (RR = 1.09; 95% CI: 1.02-1.17), and ED visits for intestinal infection and heat waves defined by average temperature at lag 1 (RR = 1.10; 95% CI: 1.00-1.21). ED visits for all internal causes were associated with heat waves defined by maximum temperature at lag 1 (RR = 1.02; 95% CI: 1.00, 1.04). Heat waves can confer additional risks of ED visits beyond those of daily air temperature, even in a region with high air-conditioning prevalence. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP44.

Evidence of plasma heating in solar microflares during the minimum of solar activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirichenko, Alexey; Bogachev, Sergey

We present a statistical study of 80 solar microflares observed during the deep minimum of solar activity between 23 and 24 solar cycles. Our analysis covers the following characteristics of the flares: thermal energy of flaring plasma, its temperature and its emission measure in soft X-rays. The data were obtained during the period from April to July of 2009, which was favorable for observations of weak events because of very low level of solar activity. The most important part of our analysis was an investigation of extremely weak microflares corresponding to X-ray class below A1.0. We found direct evidence of plasma heating in more than 90% of such events. Temperature of flaring plasma was determined under the isothermal approximation using the data of two solar instruments: imaging spectroheliometer MISH onboard Coronas-Photon spacecraft and X-ray spectrophotometer SphinX operating in energy range 0.8 - 15 keV. The main advantage of MISH is the ability to image high temperature plasma (T above 4 MK) without a low-temperature background. The SphinX data was selected due to its high sensitivity, which makes available the registration of X-ray emission from extremely weak microflares corresponding GOES A0.1 - A0.01 classes. The temperature we obtained lies in the range from 2.6 to 13.6 MK, emission measure, integrated over the range 1 - 8 Å - 2.7times10(43) - 4.9times10(47) cm (-3) , thermal energy of flaring region - 5times10(26) - 1.6times10(29) erg. We compared our results with the data obtained by Feldman et. al. 1996 and Ryan et. al. 2012 for solar flares with X-ray classes above A2.0 and conclude that the relation between X-ray class of solar flare and its temperature is strongly different for ordinary flares (above A2.0) and for weak microflares (A0.01 - A2.0). Our result supports the idea that weak solar events (microflares and nanoflares) may play significant a role in plasma heating in solar corona.

Evidence for strong enhancement of the magnetic ordering temperature of trivalent Nd metal under extreme pressure

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Song, J.; Bi, W.; Haskel, D.

Four-point electrical resistivity measurements were carried out on Nd metal and dilute magnetic alloys containing up to 1 at.% Nd in superconducting Y for temperatures 1.5-295 K under pressures to 210 GPa. The magnetic ordering temperature To of Nd appears to rise steeply under pressure, increasing ninefold to 180 K at 70 GPa before falling rapidly. Y( Nd) alloys display both a resistivity minimum and superconducting pair breaking Delta T-c as large as 38 K/at.% Nd. The present results give evidence that for pressures above 30-40 GPa, the exchange coupling J between Nd ions and conduction electrons becomes negative, thusmore » activating Kondo physics in this highly correlated electron system. The rise and fall of T-o and Delta T-c with pressure can be accounted for in terms of an increase in the Kondo temperature.« less

Modelling the breeding of Aedes Albopictus species in an urban area in Pulau Pinang using polynomial regression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salleh, Nur Hanim Mohd; Ali, Zalila; Noor, Norlida Mohd.; Baharum, Adam; Saad, Ahmad Ramli; Sulaiman, Husna Mahirah; Ahmad, Wan Muhamad Amir W.

2014-07-01

Polynomial regression is used to model a curvilinear relationship between a response variable and one or more predictor variables. It is a form of a least squares linear regression model that predicts a single response variable by decomposing the predictor variables into an nth order polynomial. In a curvilinear relationship, each curve has a number of extreme points equal to the highest order term in the polynomial. A quadratic model will have either a single maximum or minimum, whereas a cubic model has both a relative maximum and a minimum. This study used quadratic modeling techniques to analyze the effects of environmental factors: temperature, relative humidity, and rainfall distribution on the breeding of Aedes albopictus, a type of Aedes mosquito. Data were collected at an urban area in south-west Penang from September 2010 until January 2011. The results indicated that the breeding of Aedes albopictus in the urban area is influenced by all three environmental characteristics. The number of mosquito eggs is estimated to reach a maximum value at a medium temperature, a medium relative humidity and a high rainfall distribution.

Snowmelt-runoff Model Utilizing Remotely-sensed Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rango, A.

1985-01-01

Remotely sensed snow cover information is the critical data input for the Snowmelt-Runoff Model (SRM), which was developed to simulatke discharge from mountain basins where snowmelt is an important component of runoff. Of simple structure, the model requires only input of temperature, precipitation, and snow covered area. SRM was run successfully on two widely separated basins. The simulations on the Kings River basin are significant because of the large basin area (4000 sq km) and the adequate performance in the most extreme drought year of record (1976). The performance of SRM on the Okutadami River basin was important because it was accomplished with minimum snow cover data available. Tables show: optimum and minimum conditions for model application; basin sizes and elevations where SRM was applied; and SRM strengths and weaknesses. Graphs show results of discharge simulation.

Climate Change and Health Risks from Extreme Heat and Air Pollution in the Eastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Limaye, V.; Vargo, J.; Harkey, M.; Holloway, T.; Meier, P.; Patz, J.

2013-12-01

Climate change is expected to exacerbate health risks from exposure to extreme heat and air pollution through both direct and indirect mechanisms. Directly, warmer ambient temperatures promote biogenic emissions of ozone precursors and favor the formation of ground-level ozone, while an anticipated increase in the frequency of stagnant air masses will allow fine particulates to accumulate. Indirectly, warmer summertime temperatures stimulate energy demand and exacerbate polluting emissions from the electricity sector. Thus, while technological adaptations such as air conditioning can reduce risks from exposures to extreme heat, they can trigger downstream damage to air quality and public health. Through an interdisciplinary modeling effort, we quantify the impacts of climate change on ambient temperatures, summer energy demand, air quality, and public health. The first phase of this work explores how climate change will directly impact the burden of heat-related mortality. Climatic patterns, demographic trends, and epidemiologic risk models suggest that populations in the eastern United States are likely to experience an increasing heat stress mortality burden in response to rising summertime air temperatures. We use North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program modeling data to estimate mid-century 2-meter air temperatures and humidity across the eastern US from June-August, and quantify how long-term changes in actual and apparent temperatures from present-day will affect the annual burden of heat-related mortality across this region. With the US Environmental Protection Agency's Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program, we estimate health risks using concentration-response functions, which relate temperature increases to changes in annual mortality rates. We compare mid-century summertime temperature data, downscaled using the Weather Research and Forecasting model, to 2007 baseline temperatures at a 12 km resolution in order to estimate the number of annual excess deaths attributable to increased summer temperatures. Warmer average temperatures are expected to cause 173 additional deaths due to cardiovascular stress, while higher minimum temperatures will cause 67 additional deaths. This work particularly improves on the spatial resolution of published analyses of heat-related mortality in the US.

Brief Report: Investigating Uncertainty in the Minimum Mortality Temperature: Methods and Application to 52 Spanish Cities.

PubMed

Tobías, Aurelio; Armstrong, Ben; Gasparrini, Antonio

2017-01-01

The minimum mortality temperature from J- or U-shaped curves varies across cities with different climates. This variation conveys information on adaptation, but ability to characterize is limited by the absence of a method to describe uncertainty in estimated minimum mortality temperatures. We propose an approximate parametric bootstrap estimator of confidence interval (CI) and standard error (SE) for the minimum mortality temperature from a temperature-mortality shape estimated by splines. The coverage of the estimated CIs was close to nominal value (95%) in the datasets simulated, although SEs were slightly high. Applying the method to 52 Spanish provincial capital cities showed larger minimum mortality temperatures in hotter cities, rising almost exactly at the same rate as annual mean temperature. The method proposed for computing CIs and SEs for minimums from spline curves allows comparing minimum mortality temperatures in different cities and investigating their associations with climate properly, allowing for estimation uncertainty.

Climate Data Bases of the People's Republic of China 1841-1988 (TR-055)

DOE Data Explorer

Kaiser, Dale. [Oak Ridge National Lab, Oak Ridge, TN (USA); Carbon Dioxide Analysis Center (CDIAC); Tao, Shiyan [Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; Fu, Congbin [Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; Zeng, Zhaomei [Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing, China; Zhang, Qingyun [Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing (China); Wang, Wei-Chyung [University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, New York (USA); Atmospheric Science Research Center; Karl, Thomas [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Asheville, North Carolina (USA); Global Climate Laboratory, National Climatic Data Center

1993-01-01

A data base containing meteorological observations from the People's Republic of China (PRC) is described. These data were compiled in accordance with a joint research agreement signed by the U.S. Department of Energy and the PRC Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) on August 19, 1987. CAS's Institute of Atmospheric Physics (Beijing, PRC) has provided records from 296 stations, organized into five data sets: (1) a 60-station data set containing monthly measurements of barometric pressure, surface air temperature, precipitation amount, relative humidity, sunshine duration, cloud amount, wind direction and speed, and number of days with snow cover; (2) a 205-station data set containing monthly mean temperatures and monthly precipitation totals; (3) a 40-station subset of the 205-station data set containing monthly mean maximum and minimum temperatures and monthly extreme maximum and minimum temperatures; (4) a 180-station data set containing daily precipitation totals; and (5) a 147-station data set containing 10-day precipitation totals. Sixteen stations from these data sets (13 from the 60-station set and 3 from the 205-station set) have temperature and/or precipitation records that begin prior to 1900, whereas the remaining stations began observing in the early to mid-1900s. Records from most stations extend through 1988. (Note: Users interested in the TR055 60-station data set should acquire expanded and updated data from CDIAC's NDP-039, Two Long-Term Instrumental Climatic Data Bases of the People's Republic of China)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bennett, Katrina E.; Cannon, Alex J.; Hinzman, Larry

Climate change will shift the frequency, intensity, duration and persistence of extreme hydroclimate events and have particularly disastrous consequences in vulnerable systems such as the warm permafrost-dominated Interior region of boreal Alaska. This work focuses on recent research results from nonparametric trends and nonstationary generalized extreme value (GEV) analyses at eight Interior Alaskan river basins for the past 50/60 years (1954/64–2013). Trends analysis of maximum and minimum streamflow indicates a strong (>+50%) and statistically significant increase in 11-day flow events during the late fall/winter and during the snowmelt period (late April/mid-May), followed by a significant decrease in the 11-day flowmore » events during the post-snowmelt period (late May and into the summer). The April–May–June seasonal trends show significant decreases in maximum streamflow for snowmelt dominated systems (<–50%) and glacially influenced basins (–24% to –33%). Annual maximum streamflow trends indicate that most systems are experiencing declines, while minimum flow trends are largely increasing. Nonstationary GEV analysis identifies time-dependent changes in the distribution of spring extremes for snowmelt dominated and glacially dominated systems. Temperature in spring influences the glacial and high elevation snowmelt systems and winter precipitation drives changes in the snowmelt dominated basins. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation was associated with changes occurring in snowmelt dominated systems, and the Arctic Oscillation was linked to one lake dominated basin, with half of the basins exhibiting no change in response to climate variability. The paper indicates that broad scale studies examining trend and direction of change should employ multiple methods across various scales and consider regime dependent shifts to identify and understand changes in extreme streamflow within boreal forested watersheds of Alaska.« less

Changes in Extreme Events: from GCM Output to Social, Economic and Ecological Impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tebaldi, C.; Meehl, G. A.

2006-12-01

Extreme events can deeply affect social and natural systems. The current generation of global climate model is producing information that can be directly used to characterize future changes in extreme events, and through a further step their impacts, despite their still relatively coarse resolution. It is important to define extreme indicators consistently with what we expect GCM to be able to represent reliably. We use two examples from our work, heat waves and frost days, that well describe different aspects of the analysis of extremes from GCM output. Frost days are "mild extremes" and their definition and computation is straightforward. GCMs can represent them accurately and display a strong consistent signal of change. The impacts of these changes will be extremely relevant for ecosystems and agriculture. Heat waves do not have a standard definition. On the basis of historical episodes we isolate characteristics that were responsible for the worst effects on human health, for example, and analyze these characteristics in model simulations, validating the model's historical simulations. The changes in these characteristics can then be easily translated in expected differential impacts on public health. Work in progress goes in the direction of better characterization of "heat waves" taking into account jointly a set of variables like maximum and minimum temperatures and humidity, better addressing the biological vulnerabilities of the populations at risk.

A Large Ornithurine Bird (Tingmiatornis arctica) from the Turonian High Arctic: Climatic and Evolutionary Implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bono, Richard K.; Clarke, Julia; Tarduno, John A.; Brinkman, Donald

2016-12-01

Bird fossils from Turonian (ca. 90 Ma) sediments of Axel Heiberg Island (High Canadian Arctic) are among the earliest North American records. The morphology of a large well-preserved humerus supports identification of a new volant, possibly diving, ornithurine species (Tingmiatornis arctica). The new bird fossils are part of a freshwater vertebrate fossil assemblage that documents a period of extreme climatic warmth without seasonal ice, with minimum mean annual temperatures of 14 °C. The extreme warmth allowed species expansion and establishment of an ecosystem more easily able to support large birds, especially in fresh water bodies such as those present in the Turonian High Arctic. Review of the high latitude distribution of Northern Hemisphere Mesozoic birds shows only ornithurine birds are known to have occupied these regions. We propose physiological differences in ornithurines such as growth rate may explain their latitudinal distribution especially as temperatures decline later in the Cretaceous. Distribution and physiology merit consideration as factors in their preferential survival of parts of one ornithurine lineage, Aves, through the K/Pg boundary.

The impact of daily temperature on renal disease incidence: an ecological study.

PubMed

Borg, Matthew; Bi, Peng; Nitschke, Monika; Williams, Susan; McDonald, Stephen

2017-10-27

Extremely high temperatures over many consecutive days have been linked to an increase in renal disease in several cities. This is becoming increasingly relevant with heatwaves becoming longer, more intense, and more frequent with climate change. This study aimed to extend the known relationship between daily temperature and kidney disease to include the incidence of eight temperature-prone specific renal disease categories - total renal disease, urolithiasis, renal failure, acute kidney injury (AKI), chronic kidney disease (CKD), urinary tract infections (UTIs), lower urinary tract infections (LUTIs) and pyelonephritis. Daily data was acquired for maximum, minimum and average temperature over the period of 1 July 2003 to 31 March 2014 during the warm season (October to March) in Adelaide, South Australia. Data for daily admissions to all metropolitan hospitals for renal disease, including 83,519 emergency department admissions and 42,957 inpatient admissions, was also obtained. Renal outcomes were analyzed using time-stratified negative binomial regression models, with the results aggregated by day. Incidence rate ratios (IRR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated for associations between the number of admissions and daily temperature. Increases in daily temperature per 1 °C were associated with an increased incidence for all renal disease categories except for pyelonephritis. Minimum temperature was associated with the greatest increase in renal disease followed by average temperature and then maximum temperature. A 1°C increase in daily minimum temperature was associated with an increase in daily emergency department admissions for AKI (IRR 1.037, 95% CI: 1.026-1.048), renal failure (IRR 1.030, 95% CI: 1.022-1.039), CKD (IRR 1.017, 95% CI: 1.001-1.033) urolithiasis (IRR 1.015, 95% CI: 1.010-1.020), total renal disease (IRR 1.009, 95% CI: 1.006-1.011), UTIs (IRR 1.004, 95% CI: 1.000-1.007) and LUTIs (IRR 1.003, 95% CI: 1.000-1.006). An increased frequency of renal disease, including urolithiasis, acute kidney injury and urinary tract infections, is predicted with increasing temperatures from climate change. These results have clinical and public health implications for the management of renal diseases and demand tailored health services. Future research is warranted to analyze individual renal diseases with more comprehensive information regarding renal risk factors, and studies examining mortality for specific renal diseases.

High temperature antenna pointing mechanism for BepiColombo mission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mürer, Johan A.; Harper, Richard; Anderson, Mike

2005-07-01

This paper describes the two axis Antenna Pointing Mechanism (APM) with dual frequency (X-Ka bands) Rotary Joint (RJ) developed by Kongsberg Defence and Aerospace and BAE Systems, in the frame of the ESA BepiColombo mission to the planet Mercury. The extreme environmental conditions induced by Mercury's proximity to the Sun (up to 14.500 W/m2 direct solar fluxes, up to 5000 W/m2 infrared flux and up to 1200 W/m2 albedo shine form the planet surface), have dictated the need for a specific high temperature development of the pointing mechanism and of its integrated RF Rotary Joint. Global thermal analysis of the antenna predicts qualification temperature for the elevation stage APM between 250°C and 295°C. In addition, the mechanism shall survive extreme cold temperatures during the interplanetary cruise phase. Beside the harsh environment, the stringent pointing accuracy required by the antenna high frequency operations, and the extreme dimensional stability demanded by a radio science experiment (which is using the antenna for range and range rate measurements), have introduced additional, specific challenges to the mechanism design. Innovative solutions have been deemed necessary at system architecture level, in the design of the mechanisms critical areas and in the selection of high temperature compatible materials and processes. The very high working temperature of the mechanism ruled out use of aluminium alloys, which is replaced by Titanium alloy and stainless steels. Special heat treatments of the steel are applied for minimum loss of hardness. The structures are optimised for minimum mass. To handle thermal stresses and distortion, a very compact design of the APM was performed integrating the bearings, position sensor and drive chain within minimum structural length. The Rotary Joint is a unique design tailored to the APM using a common main bearing support. Special manufacturing processes have been tested and applied for manufacture of the very compact RJ being the first of its kind (dual X-Ka band) in European space development. The twin channels are arranged concentrically, permitting continuous 360° rotation. Maximum use of waveguide has been made to minimise the loss in the Ka-band frequency channel and this leads to an unconventional design of the X-band channel. A specific effort and extensive test program at ESTL in the UK have been put in place to identify suitable high temperature solutions for the RJ and APM bearings lubrication. The high temperature demands the use of a dry lubrication system. High working loads due to thermal stresses puts extra challenge to the life duration of the dry film lubrication. Lead lubrication was initially the preferred concept, but has later in the program been substituted by MoS2 film. A design life of 20,000 cycles at 250°C and elevated load has been demonstrated for the bearings with MoS2. Special attention has been paid to the materials in the stepper motor using high temperature solder material and MoS2 dry lubrication in the bearings and gear train. The APM is designed for use of a high accuracy inductive based position sensor with remote signal and amplifier electronics. Electrical signal transfer is via a high temperature Twist Capsule. The activity has included the design, manufacturing and testing in a respresentative environment of a breadboard model of the APM and of its integrated radio frequency RJ. The breadboard does not include a position sensor or the Twist Capsule. The breadboard tests will include functional performance tests in air, vibration tests and thermal vacuum. The thermal vacuum test will include RF testing at high temperature combined with APM pointing performance.

Statistical physics when the minimum temperature is not absolute zero

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chung, Won Sang; Hassanabadi, Hassan

2018-04-01

In this paper, the nonzero minimum temperature is considered based on the third law of thermodynamics and existence of the minimal momentum. From the assumption of nonzero positive minimum temperature in nature, we deform the definitions of some thermodynamical quantities and investigate nonzero minimum temperature correction to the well-known thermodynamical problems.

Technology-derived storage solutions for stabilizing insulin in extreme weather conditions I: the ViViCap-1 device.

PubMed

Pfützner, Andreas; Pesach, Gidi; Nagar, Ron

2017-06-01

Injectable life-saving drugs should not be exposed to temperatures <4°C/39°F or >30°C/86°F. Frequently, weather conditions exceed these temperature thresholds in many countries. Insulin is to be kept at 4-8°C/~ 39-47°F until use and once opened, is supposed to be stable for up to 31 days at room temperature (exception: 42 days for insulin levemir). Extremely hot or cold external temperature can lead to insulin degradation in a very short time with loss of its glucose-lowering efficacy. Combined chemical and engineering solutions for heat protection are employed in ViViCap-1 for disposable insulin pens. The device works based on vacuum insulation and heat consumption by phase-change material. Laboratory studies with exposure of ViViCap-1 to hot outside conditions were performed to evaluate the device performance. ViViCap-1 keeps insulin at an internal temperature < 29°C/84.2°F for a minimum of 12 h without external power requirement, even when constantly exposed to an outside temperature of 37.8°C/100°F. Bringing the device into an ambient temperature < 26°C/78.8°F reverses the phase-change process and 'recharges' the device for further use. ViViCap-1 performed within its specifications. The small and convenient device maintains the efficacy and safety of using insulin even when carried under hot weather conditions.

Extreme climatic events constrain space use and survival of a ground-nesting bird.

PubMed

Tanner, Evan P; Elmore, R Dwayne; Fuhlendorf, Samuel D; Davis, Craig A; Dahlgren, David K; Orange, Jeremy P

2017-05-01

Two fundamental issues in ecology are understanding what influences the distribution and abundance of organisms through space and time. While it is well established that broad-scale patterns of abiotic and biotic conditions affect organisms' distributions and population fluctuations, discrete events may be important drivers of space use, survival, and persistence. These discrete extreme climatic events can constrain populations and space use at fine scales beyond that which is typically measured in ecological studies. Recently, a growing body of literature has identified thermal stress as a potential mechanism in determining space use and survival. We sought to determine how ambient temperature at fine temporal scales affected survival and space use for a ground-nesting quail species (Colinus virginianus; northern bobwhite). We modeled space use across an ambient temperature gradient (ranging from -20 to 38 °C) through a maxent algorithm. We also used Andersen-Gill proportional hazard models to assess the influence of ambient temperature-related variables on survival through time. Estimated available useable space ranged from 18.6% to 57.1% of the landscape depending on ambient temperature. The lowest and highest ambient temperature categories (<-15 °C and >35 °C, respectively) were associated with the least amount of estimated useable space (18.6% and 24.6%, respectively). Range overlap analysis indicated dissimilarity in areas where Colinus virginianus were restricted during times of thermal extremes (range overlap = 0.38). This suggests that habitat under a given condition is not necessarily a habitat under alternative conditions. Further, we found survival was most influenced by weekly minimum ambient temperatures. Our results demonstrate that ecological constraints can occur along a thermal gradient and that understanding the effects of these discrete events and how they change over time may be more important to conservation of organisms than are average and broad-scale conditions as typically measured in ecological studies. © 2016 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Survival of rapidly fluctuating natural low winter temperatures by High Arctic soil invertebrates.

PubMed

Convey, Peter; Abbandonato, Holly; Bergan, Frode; Beumer, Larissa Teresa; Biersma, Elisabeth Machteld; Bråthen, Vegard Sandøy; D'Imperio, Ludovica; Jensen, Christina Kjellerup; Nilsen, Solveig; Paquin, Karolina; Stenkewitz, Ute; Svoen, Mildrid Elvik; Winkler, Judith; Müller, Eike; Coulson, Stephen James

2015-12-01

The extreme polar environment creates challenges for its resident invertebrate communities and the stress tolerance of some of these animals has been examined over many years. However, although it is well appreciated that standard air temperature records often fail to describe accurately conditions experienced at microhabitat level, few studies have explicitly set out to link field conditions experienced by natural multispecies communities with the more detailed laboratory ecophysiological studies of a small number of 'representative' species. This is particularly the case during winter, when snow cover may insulate terrestrial habitats from extreme air temperature fluctuations. Further, climate projections suggest large changes in precipitation will occur in the polar regions, with the greatest changes expected during the winter period and, hence, implications for the insulation of overwintering microhabitats. To assess survival of natural High Arctic soil invertebrate communities contained in soil and vegetation cores to natural winter temperature variations, the overwintering temperatures they experienced were manipulated by deploying cores in locations with varying snow accumulation: No Snow, Shallow Snow (30 cm) and Deep Snow (120 cm). Air temperatures during the winter period fluctuated frequently between +3 and -24 °C, and the No Snow soil temperatures reflected this variation closely, with the extreme minimum being slightly lower. Under 30 cm of snow, soil temperatures varied less and did not decrease below -12 °C. Those under deep snow were even more stable and did not decline below -2 °C. Despite these striking differences in winter thermal regimes, there were no clear differences in survival of the invertebrate fauna between treatments, including oribatid, prostigmatid and mesostigmatid mites, Araneae, Collembola, Nematocera larvae or Coleoptera. This indicates widespread tolerance, previously undocumented for the Araneae, Nematocera or Coleoptera, of both direct exposure to at least -24 °C and the rapid and large temperature fluctuations. These results suggest that the studied polar soil invertebrate community may be robust to at least one important predicted consequence of projected climate change. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Climate trends and projections for the Andean Altiplano and strategies for adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valdivia, C.; Thibeault, J.; Gilles, J. L.; García, M.; Seth, A.

2013-04-01

Climate variability and change impact production in rainfed agricultural systems of the Bolivian highlands. Maximum temperature trends are increasing for the Altiplano. Minimum temperature increases are significant in the northern region, and decreases are significant in the southern region. Producers' perceptions of climate hazards are high in the central region, while concerns with changing climate and unemployment are high in the north. Similar high-risk perceptions involve pests and diseases in both regions. Altiplano climate projections for end-of-century highlights include increases in temperature, extreme event frequency, change in the timing of rainfall, and reduction of soil humidity. Successful adaptation to these changes will require the development of links between the knowledge systems of producers and scientists. Two-way participatory approaches to develop capacity and information that involve decision makers and scientists are appropriate approaches in this context of increased risk, uncertainty and vulnerability.

Model study of the effects of gravity wave dissipation on the thermosphere and ionosphere from deep convection worldwide

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vadas, Sharon; Liu, Hanli

In this paper, we discuss the methods and results of a global modeling study for the effect of deep convection on the thermosphere and ionosphere through the dissipation of atmospheric gravity waves (GWs). The selected time periods are 15-27 June 2009, during the recent extreme solar minimum, and 15-27 June 2000, during the recent solar maximum. The convective plumes which overshot the tropopause are identified from IR images obtained by 5 satellites covering the Earth during each period. We model the excitation of GWs from these plumes, and ray trace them into the thermosphere using our ray trace model which has been upgraded to span the Earth. We then calculate the forcings/heatings/coolings which result when and where these GWs dissipate in the thermosphere. We input these forcings/heatings/coolings into the global TIME-GCM, and re-run the model. In this paper, we discuss these methods and models in detail. We then discuss how the thermosphere and ionosphere responded to the dissipation of these convectively-generated GWs worldwide. We show that the responses propagate westward due to wind filtering by tides in the lower thermosphere. We also show that the neutral temperature and wind perturbations are larger during extreme solar minimum than during solar maximum.

Observed Trends in Indices of Daily Precipitation and Temperature Extremes in Rio de Janeiro State (brazil)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silva, W. L.; Dereczynski, C. P.; Cavalcanti, I. F.

2013-05-01

One of the main concerns of contemporary society regarding prevailing climate change is related to possible changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme events. Strong heat and cold waves, droughts, severe floods, and other climatic extremes have been of great interest to researchers because of its huge impact on the environment and population, causing high monetary damages and, in some cases, loss of life. The frequency and intensity of extreme events associated with precipitation and air temperature have been increased in several regions of the planet in recent years. These changes produce serious impacts on human activities such as agriculture, health, urban planning and development and management of water resources. In this paper, we analyze the trends in indices of climatic extremes related to daily precipitation and maximum and minimum temperatures at 22 meteorological stations of the National Institute of Meteorology (INMET) in Rio de Janeiro State (Brazil) in the last 50 years. The present trends are evaluated using the software RClimdex (Canadian Meteorological Service) and are also subjected to statistical tests. Preliminary results indicate that periods of drought are getting longer in Rio de Janeiro State, except in the North/Northwest area. In "Vale do Paraíba", "Região Serrana" and "Região dos Lagos" the increase of consecutive dry days is statistically significant. However, we also detected an increase in the total annual rainfall all over the State (taxes varying from +2 to +8 mm/year), which are statistically significant at "Região Serrana". Moreover, the intensity of heavy rainfall is also growing in most of Rio de Janeiro, except in "Costa Verde". The trends of heavy rainfall indices show significant increase in the "Metropolitan Region" and in "Região Serrana", factor that increases the vulnerability to natural disasters in these areas. With respect to temperature, it is found that the frequency of hot (cold) days and nights is increasing (reducing) with significance in almost all regions. "Região dos Lagos" has the most significant trends of increasing in temperature, thereby influencing the local production of salt and alkaline minerals in medium and long term. The goal of this research is, through the analysis of results, support studies of vulnerability and adaptation to climate change scenarios in Rio de Janeiro State.

Mean and extreme temperatures in a warming climate: EURO CORDEX and WRF regional climate high-resolution projections for Portugal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cardoso, Rita M.; Soares, Pedro M. M.; Lima, Daniela C. A.; Miranda, Pedro M. A.

2018-02-01

Large temperature spatio-temporal gradients are a common feature of Mediterranean climates. The Portuguese complex topography and coastlines enhances such features, and in a small region large temperature gradients with high interannual variability is detected. In this study, the EURO-CORDEX high-resolution regional climate simulations (0.11° and 0.44° resolutions) are used to investigate the maximum and minimum temperature projections across the twenty-first century according to RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. An additional WRF simulation with even higher resolution (9 km) for RCP8.5 scenario is also examined. All simulations for the historical period (1971-2000) are evaluated against the available station observations and the EURO-CORDEX model results are ranked in order to build multi-model ensembles. In present climate models are able to reproduce the main topography/coast related temperature gradients. Although there are discernible differences between models, most present a cold bias. The multi-model ensembles improve the overall representation of the temperature. The ensembles project a significant increase of the maximum and minimum temperatures in all seasons and scenarios. Maximum increments of 8 °C in summer and autumn and between 2 and 4 °C in winter and spring are projected in RCP8.5. The temperature distributions for all models show a significant increase in the upper tails of the PDFs. In RCP8.5 more than half of the extended summer (MJJAS) has maximum temperatures exceeding the historical 90th percentile and, on average, 60 tropical nights are projected for the end of the century, whilst there are only 7 tropical nights in the historical period. Conversely, the number of cold days almost disappears. The yearly average number of heat waves increases by seven to ninefold by 2100 and the most frequent length rises from 5 to 22 days throughout the twenty-first century. 5% of the longest events will last for more than one month. The amplitude is overwhelming larger, reaching values which are not observed in the historical period. More than half of the heat waves will be stronger than the extreme heat wave of 2003 by the end of the century. The future heatwaves will also enclose larger areas, approximately 100 events in the 2071-2100 period (more than 3 per year) will cover the whole country. The RCP4.5 scenario has in general smaller magnitudes.

Evaluating historical climate and hydrologic trends in the Central Appalachian region of the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaertner, B. A.; Zegre, N.

2015-12-01

Climate change is surfacing as one of the most important environmental and social issues of the 21st century. Over the last 100 years, observations show increasing trends in global temperatures and intensity and frequency of precipitation events such as flooding, drought, and extreme storms. Global circulation models (GCM) show similar trends for historic and future climate indicators, albeit with geographic and topographic variability at regional and local scale. In order to assess the utility of GCM projections for hydrologic modeling, it is important to quantify how robust GCM outputs are compared to robust historical observations at finer spatial scales. Previous research in the United States has primarily focused on the Western and Northeastern regions due to dominance of snow melt for runoff and aquifer recharge but the impact of climate warming in the mountainous central Appalachian Region is poorly understood. In this research, we assess the performance of GCM-generated historical climate compared to historical observations primarily in the context of forcing data for macro-scale hydrologic modeling. Our results show significant spatial heterogeneity of modeled climate indices when compared to observational trends at the watershed scale. Observational data is showing considerable variability within maximum temperature and precipitation trends, with consistent increases in minimum temperature. The geographic, temperature, and complex topographic gradient throughout the central Appalachian region is likely the contributing factor in temperature and precipitation variability. Variable climate changes are leading to more severe and frequent climate events such as temperature extremes and storm events, which can have significant impacts on our drinking water supply, infrastructure, and health of all downstream communities.

Climate variability in Andalusia (southern Spain) during the period 1701-1850 based on documentary sources: evaluation and comparison with climate model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodrigo, F. S.; Gómez-Navarro, J. J.; Montávez Gómez, J. P.

2012-01-01

In this work, a reconstruction of climatic conditions in Andalusia (southern Iberian Peninsula) during the period 1701-1850, as well as an evaluation of its associated uncertainties, is presented. This period is interesting because it is characterized by a minimum in solar irradiance (Dalton Minimum, around 1800), as well as intense volcanic activity (for instance, the eruption of Tambora in 1815), at a time when any increase in atmospheric CO2 concentrations was of minor importance. The reconstruction is based on the analysis of a wide variety of documentary data. The reconstruction methodology is based on counting the number of extreme events in the past, and inferring mean value and standard deviation using the assumption of normal distribution for the seasonal means of climate variables. This reconstruction methodology is tested within the pseudoreality of a high-resolution paleoclimate simulation performed with the regional climate model MM5 coupled to the global model ECHO-G. The results show that the reconstructions are influenced by the reference period chosen and the threshold values used to define extreme values. This creates uncertainties which are assessed within the context of climate simulation. An ensemble of reconstructions was obtained using two different reference periods (1885-1915 and 1960-1990) and two pairs of percentiles as threshold values (10-90 and 25-75). The results correspond to winter temperature, and winter, spring and autumn rainfall, and they are compared with simulations of the climate model for the considered period. The mean value of winter temperature for the period 1781-1850 was 10.6 ± 0.1 °C (11.0 °C for the reference period 1960-1990). The mean value of winter rainfall for the period 1701-1850 was 267 ± 18 mm (224 mm for 1960-1990). The mean values of spring and autumn rainfall were 164 ± 11 and 194 ± 16 mm (129 and 162 mm for 1960-1990, respectively). Comparison of the distribution functions corresponding to 1790-1820 and 1960-1990 indicates that during the Dalton Minimum the frequency of dry and warm (wet and cold) winters was lower (higher) than during the reference period: temperatures were up to 0.5 °C lower than the 1960-1990 value, and rainfall was 4% higher.

Low density of neutral hydrogen and helium in the local interstellar medium: Extreme Ultraviolet Explorer photometry of the Lyman continuum of the hot white dwarfs MCT 0501-2858, MCT 0455-2812, HZ 43, and GD 153

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vennes, Stephane; Dupuis, Jean; Bowyer, Stuart; Fontaine, Gilles; Wiercigroch, Alexandria; Jelinsky, Patrick; Wesemael, Francois; Malina, Roger

1994-01-01

The first comprehensive sky survey of the extreme ultraviolet (EUV) spectral range performed by the Extreme Ultraviolet Explorer (EUVE) has uncovered a handful of very bright sources at wavelengths longer than the He I 504 A photoionization edge. Among these objects are four white dwarfs with exceptionally low interstellar medium (ISM) column densities along the line of sight. Analysis of EUV photometry of the He-rich DO white dwarf MCT 0501-2858 and the H-rich DA white dwarf MCT 0455-2812 along one line of sight and of the DA white dwarfs HZ 43 and GD 153 near the north Galactic pole indicates that the overall minimum column density of the neutral material centered on the Sun is N(H I) = 0.5-1.0 x 10(exp 18)/sq cm. In the case of MCT 0501-2858, EUV photometric measurements provide a clear constraint to the effective temperature (60,000-70,000 K). Given these neutral hydrogen columns, the actual contribution to the density of neutral species from the immediate solar environment (the 'local fluff') would only cover a distance of approximately equals 2-3 pc (assuming an average density n(H I) = 0.1/cu cm) leaving these lines of sight almost entirely within the hot phase of the ISM. A preliminary examination of the complete EUVE long-wavelength survey indicates that these lines of sight are exceptional and set a minimum column density in the solar environment.

Climate change in Lagos state, Nigeria: what really changed?

PubMed

Sojobi, Adebayo Olatunbosun; Balogun, Isaac Idowu; Salami, Adebayo Wahab

2015-10-01

Our study revealed periodicities of 2.3 and 2.25 years in wet and dry seasons and periodicities of 2 to 5 years on seasonal and annual timescales. Minimum temperature (Tmin), maximum temperature (Tmax) and evaporation recorded increases of 2.47, 1.37 and 28.37 %, respectively, but a reduction of 19.58 % in rainfall on decadal timescale. Periodicity of 8 to 12 years was also observed in annual Tmax. Cramer's test indicated a warming trend with significant Tmax increase in February, April, July, August, October and November during 2000-2009 on decadal monthly timescale, a significant decline in Summer rainfall but significant Tmax increase in Spring, Autumn and Winter on decadal seasonal timescale. The low correlation of rainfall with temperature parameters and evaporation indicates that advection of moisture into Lagos State seems to be the dominant mechanism controlling rainfall within the State alongside other tropical and extra-tropical factors. In addition, our study revealed that the persistent state of minimum temperature often precedes the arrival and reversal of the phase of maximum temperature. Furthermore, our study also revealed that extreme and high variable rainfalls, which are associated with the increased warming trend, had periodicities of 1 to 3 years with a probability of 86.45 % of occurring every 3 years between April and September. It is recommended that government and private sector should give financial and technical supports to climate researches in order to appropriately inform policy making to improve the adaptive capacity and resilience of Lagos State against climate change impacts and guard against maladaptation.

Windowpane flounder (Scophthalmus aquosus) and winter flounder (Pseudopleuronectes americanus) responses to cold temperature extremes in a Northwest Atlantic estuary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilber, Dara H.; Clarke, Douglas G.; Alcoba, Catherine M.; Gallo, Jenine

2016-01-01

The effect of climate variability on flatfish includes not only the effects of warming on sensitive life history stages, but also impacts from more frequent or unseasonal extreme cold temperatures. Cold weather events can affect the overwintering capabilities of flatfish near their low temperature range limits. We examined the responses of two flatfish species, the thin-bodied windowpane (Scophthalmus aquosus) and cold-tolerant winter flounder (Pseudopleuronectes americanus), to variable winter temperatures in a Northwest Atlantic estuary using abundance and size data collected during a monitoring study, the Aquatic Biological Survey, conducted from 2002 to 2010. Winter and spring abundances of small (50 to 120 mm total length) juvenile windowpane were positively correlated with adult densities (spawning stock) and fall temperatures (thermal conditions experienced during post-settlement development for the fall-spawned cohort) of the previous year. Windowpane abundances in the estuary were significantly reduced and the smallest size class was nearly absent after several consecutive years with cold (minimum temperatures < 1 °C) winters. Interannual variation in winter flounder abundances was unrelated to the severity of winter temperatures. A Paulik diagram illustrates strong positive correlations between annual abundances of sequential winter flounder life history stages (egg, larval, Age-1 juvenile, and adult male) within the estuary, reflecting residency within the estuary through their first year of life. Temperature variables representing conditions during winter flounder larval and post-settlement development were not significant factors in multiple regression models exploring factors that affect juvenile abundances. Likewise, densities of predators known to consume winter flounder eggs and/or post-settlement juveniles were not significantly related to interannual variation in winter flounder juvenile abundances. Colder estuarine temperatures through the first year of life were associated with smaller Age-1 winter flounder body size. For example, Age-1 winter flounder developing under conditions that differed by 1.9 °C in mean daily water temperature, averaged 98.7 mm total length (TL) and 123.1 mm TL, for the relatively cold vs. moderate years, respectively. More frequent cold temperature extremes associated with climate variability may negatively impact the overwintering capabilities of some flatfish near their cold temperature range limits, whereas cold-tolerant species may experience reduced growth, which imparts the ecological challenges associated with smaller body size.

Regional climate assessment of precipitation and temperature in Southern Punjab (Pakistan) using SimCLIM climate model for different temporal scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amin, Asad; Nasim, Wajid; Mubeen, Muhammad; Sarwar, Saleem; Urich, Peter; Ahmad, Ashfaq; Wajid, Aftab; Khaliq, Tasneem; Rasul, Fahd; Hammad, Hafiz Mohkum; Rehmani, Muhammad Ishaq Asif; Mubarak, Hussani; Mirza, Nosheen; Wahid, Abdul; Ahamd, Shakeel; Fahad, Shah; Ullah, Abid; Khan, Mohammad Nauman; Ameen, Asif; Amanullah; Shahzad, Babar; Saud, Shah; Alharby, Hesham; Ata-Ul-Karim, Syed Tahir; Adnan, Muhammad; Islam, Faisal; Ali, Qazi Shoaib

2018-01-01

Unbalanced climate during the last decades has created spatially alarming and destructive situations in the world. Anomalies in temperature and precipitation enhance the risks for crop production in large agricultural region (especially the Southern Punjab) of Pakistan. Detailed analysis of historic weather data (1980-2011) record helped in creating baseline data to compare with model projection (SimCLIM) for regional level. Ensemble of 40 GCMs used for climatic projections with greenhouse gas (GHG) representative concentration pathways (RCP-4.5, 6.0, 8.5) was selected on the baseline comparison and used for 2025 and 2050 climate projection. Precipitation projected by ensemble and regional weather observatory at baseline showed highly unpredictable nature while both temperature extremes showed 95 % confidence level on a monthly projection. Percentage change in precipitation projected by model with RCP-4.5, RCP-6.0, and RCP-8.5 showed uncertainty 3.3 to 5.6 %, 2.9 to 5.2 %, and 3.6 to 7.9 % for 2025 and 2050, respectively. Percentage change of minimum temperature from base temperature showed that 5.1, 4.7, and 5.8 % for 2025 and 9.0, 8.1, and 12.0 % increase for projection year 2050 with RCP-4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 and maximum temperature 2.7, 2.5, and 3.0 % for 2025 and 4.7, 4.4, and 6.4 % for 2050 will be increased with RCP-4.5, 6.0, and 8.5, respectively. Uneven increase in precipitation and asymmetric increase in temperature extremes in future would also increase the risk associated with management of climatic uncertainties. Future climate projection will enable us for better risk management decisions.

Local climate change induced by groundwater overexploitation in a high Andean arid watershed, Laguna Lagunillas basin, northern Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scheihing, Konstantin; Tröger, Uwe

2018-05-01

The Laguna Lagunillas basin in the arid Andes of northern Chile exhibits a shallow aquifer and is exposed to extreme air temperature variations from 20 to -25 °C. Between 1991 and 2012, groundwater levels in the Pampa Lagunillas aquifer fell from near-surface to 15 m below ground level (bgl) due to severe overexploitation. In the same period, local mean monthly minimum temperatures started a declining trend, dropping by 3-8 °C relative to a nearby reference station. Meanwhile, mean monthly maximum summer temperatures shifted abruptly upwards by 2.7 °C on average in around 1996. The observed air temperature downturns and upturns are in accordance with detected anomalies in land-surface temperature imagery. Two major factors may be causing the local climate change. One is related to a water-table decline below the evaporative energy potential extinction depth of 2 m bgl, which causes an up-heating of the bare soil surface and, in turn, influences the lower atmosphere. At the same time, the removal of near-surface groundwater reduces the thermal conductivity of the upper sedimentary layer, which consequently diminishes the heat exchange between the aquifer (constant heat source of 10 °C) and the lower atmosphere during nights, leading to a severe dropping of minimum air temperatures. The observed critical water-level drawdown was 2-3 m bgl. Future and existing water-production projects in arid high Andean basins with shallow groundwater should avoid a decline of near-surface groundwater below 2 m bgl and take groundwater-climate interactions into account when identifying and monitoring potential environmental impacts.

Barriers and dispersal surfaces in minimum-time interception. [for optimizing aircraft flight paths

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rajan, N.; Ardema, M. D.

1984-01-01

A method is proposed for mapping the barrier, dispersal, and control-level surfaces for a class of minimum-time interception and pursuit-evasion problems. Minimum-time interception of a target moving in a horizontal plane is formulated in a coordinate system whose origin is at the interceptor's terminal position and whose x-axis is along the terminal line of sight. This approach makes it possible to discuss the nature of the interceptor's extremals, using its extremal trajectory maps (ETMs), independently of target motion. The game surfaces are constructed by drawing sections of the isochrones, or constant minimum-time loci, from the interceptor and target ETMs. In this way, feedback solutions for the optimal controls are obtained. An example involving the interception of a target moving in a straight line at constant speed is presented.

Dynamic compression of dense oxide (Gd3Ga5O12) from 0.4 to 2.6 TPa: Universal Hugoniot of fluid metals

PubMed Central

Ozaki, N.; Nellis, W. J.; Mashimo, T.; Ramzan, M.; Ahuja, R.; Kaewmaraya, T.; Kimura, T.; Knudson, M.; Miyanishi, K.; Sakawa, Y.; Sano, T.; Kodama, R.

2016-01-01

Materials at high pressures and temperatures are of great current interest for warm dense matter physics, planetary sciences, and inertial fusion energy research. Shock-compression equation-of-state data and optical reflectivities of the fluid dense oxide, Gd3Ga5O12 (GGG), were measured at extremely high pressures up to 2.6 TPa (26 Mbar) generated by high-power laser irradiation and magnetically-driven hypervelocity impacts. Above 0.75 TPa, the GGG Hugoniot data approach/reach a universal linear line of fluid metals, and the optical reflectivity most likely reaches a constant value indicating that GGG undergoes a crossover from fluid semiconductor to poor metal with minimum metallic conductivity (MMC). These results suggest that most fluid compounds, e.g., strong planetary oxides, reach a common state on the universal Hugoniot of fluid metals (UHFM) with MMC at sufficiently extreme pressures and temperatures. The systematic behaviors of warm dense fluid would be useful benchmarks for developing theoretical equation-of-state and transport models in the warm dense matter regime in determining computational predictions. PMID:27193942

Dynamic compression of dense oxide (Gd 3Ga 5O 12) from 0.4 to 2.6 TPa: Universal Hugoniot of fluid metals

DOE PAGES

Ozaki, N.; Nellis, W. J.; Mashimo, T.; ...

2016-05-19

Materials at high pressures and temperatures are of great current interest for warm dense matter physics, planetary sciences, and inertial fusion energy research. Shock-compression equation-of-state data and optical reflectivities of the fluid dense oxide, Gd 3Ga 5O 12 (GGG), were measured at extremely high pressures up to 2.6 TPa (26 Mbar) generated by high-power laser irradiation and magnetically-driven hypervelocity impacts. Above 0.75 TPa, the GGG Hugoniot data approach/reach a universal linear line of fluid metals, and the optical reflectivity most likely reaches a constant value indicating that GGG undergoes a crossover from fluid semiconductor to poor metal with minimum metallicmore » conductivity (MMC). These results suggest that most fluid compounds, e.g., strong planetary oxides, reach a common state on the universal Hugoniot of fluid metals (UHFM) with MMC at sufficiently extreme pressures and temperatures. Lastly, the systematic behaviors of warm dense fluid would be useful benchmarks for developing theoretical equation-of-state and transport models in the warm dense matter regime in determining computational predictions.« less

Dynamic compression of dense oxide (Gd3Ga5O12) from 0.4 to 2.6 TPa: Universal Hugoniot of fluid metals.

PubMed

Ozaki, N; Nellis, W J; Mashimo, T; Ramzan, M; Ahuja, R; Kaewmaraya, T; Kimura, T; Knudson, M; Miyanishi, K; Sakawa, Y; Sano, T; Kodama, R

2016-05-19

Materials at high pressures and temperatures are of great current interest for warm dense matter physics, planetary sciences, and inertial fusion energy research. Shock-compression equation-of-state data and optical reflectivities of the fluid dense oxide, Gd3Ga5O12 (GGG), were measured at extremely high pressures up to 2.6 TPa (26 Mbar) generated by high-power laser irradiation and magnetically-driven hypervelocity impacts. Above 0.75 TPa, the GGG Hugoniot data approach/reach a universal linear line of fluid metals, and the optical reflectivity most likely reaches a constant value indicating that GGG undergoes a crossover from fluid semiconductor to poor metal with minimum metallic conductivity (MMC). These results suggest that most fluid compounds, e.g., strong planetary oxides, reach a common state on the universal Hugoniot of fluid metals (UHFM) with MMC at sufficiently extreme pressures and temperatures. The systematic behaviors of warm dense fluid would be useful benchmarks for developing theoretical equation-of-state and transport models in the warm dense matter regime in determining computational predictions.

Urban enhancement of the heat waves in Madrid and its metropolitan area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernandez, F.; Rasilla, D.

2009-04-01

The urban heat island (UHI) is a worldwide phenomenon that causes an increase of the temperatures in the centre of the cities. The process of urbanization has developed an intense urban heat island in Madrid, with temperature differences up to 10°C higher than the surrounding rural environment. Such differences may potentially increase the magnitude and duration of heat waves within cities, exacerbating their most negative effects over human health, particularly by night, as it deprives urban residents of the cool relief found in rural areas. In this contribution we study the long term trends on warm extreme temperature episodes in the Madrid metropolitan area, and their impact at local scale, on the onw city of Madrid. For the first task, we have compared maximum and minimum temperatures from rural (Barajas and Torrejón) and urban (El Retiro, Cuatro Vientos, Getafe) stations from 1961-2008; for the second one a local network of automated meteorological stations inside the city provided hourly data from the 2002-2004 years. Finally, the 2003 heat wave is used as an example of the spatial and temporal patterns of temperature and ozone concentrations during those extreme episodes. Our results show a regional increase in the frequency and duration of those extreme warm episodes since the end of the 80´s, although their absolute magnitude remains unchanged. The urban environment exacerbates the heat load due to the persistence of the high temperatures during the night-time hours, as it is shown by the above average number of tropical nights (> 20°C) inside the urban spaces, simultaneous to the increasing trend of maximum temperatures. Besides, the diversity of urban morphologies introduces a spatial variability on the strength of this nocturnal heat load, aggravating it in the densely urbanized areas and mitigating it in the vicinities of the green areas. The regional meteorological conditions associated to these warm episodes, characterized also by low wind speed and high values of sunshine and solar irradiation, are very favourable to increases of the levels of ozone, thus exacerbating the negative effects of the heat waves.

Hydrologic extremes - an intercomparison of multiple gridded statistical downscaling methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Werner, A. T.; Cannon, A. J.

2015-06-01

Gridded statistical downscaling methods are the main means of preparing climate model data to drive distributed hydrological models. Past work on the validation of climate downscaling methods has focused on temperature and precipitation, with less attention paid to the ultimate outputs from hydrological models. Also, as attention shifts towards projections of extreme events, downscaling comparisons now commonly assess methods in terms of climate extremes, but hydrologic extremes are less well explored. Here, we test the ability of gridded downscaling models to replicate historical properties of climate and hydrologic extremes, as measured in terms of temporal sequencing (i.e., correlation tests) and distributional properties (i.e., tests for equality of probability distributions). Outputs from seven downscaling methods - bias correction constructed analogues (BCCA), double BCCA (DBCCA), BCCA with quantile mapping reordering (BCCAQ), bias correction spatial disaggregation (BCSD), BCSD using minimum/maximum temperature (BCSDX), climate imprint delta method (CI), and bias corrected CI (BCCI) - are used to drive the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model over the snow-dominated Peace River basin, British Columbia. Outputs are tested using split-sample validation on 26 climate extremes indices (ClimDEX) and two hydrologic extremes indices (3 day peak flow and 7 day peak flow). To characterize observational uncertainty, four atmospheric reanalyses are used as climate model surrogates and two gridded observational datasets are used as downscaling target data. The skill of the downscaling methods generally depended on reanalysis and gridded observational dataset. However, CI failed to reproduce the distribution and BCSD and BCSDX the timing of winter 7 day low flow events, regardless of reanalysis or observational dataset. Overall, DBCCA passed the greatest number of tests for the ClimDEX indices, while BCCAQ, which is designed to more accurately resolve event-scale spatial gradients, passed the greatest number of tests for hydrologic extremes. Non-stationarity in the observational/reanalysis datasets complicated the evaluation of downscaling performance. Comparing temporal homogeneity and trends in climate indices and hydrological model outputs calculated from downscaled reanalyses and gridded observations was useful for diagnosing the reliability of the various historical datasets. We recommend that such analyses be conducted before such data are used to construct future hydro-climatic change scenarios.

Hydrologic extremes - an intercomparison of multiple gridded statistical downscaling methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Werner, Arelia T.; Cannon, Alex J.

2016-04-01

Gridded statistical downscaling methods are the main means of preparing climate model data to drive distributed hydrological models. Past work on the validation of climate downscaling methods has focused on temperature and precipitation, with less attention paid to the ultimate outputs from hydrological models. Also, as attention shifts towards projections of extreme events, downscaling comparisons now commonly assess methods in terms of climate extremes, but hydrologic extremes are less well explored. Here, we test the ability of gridded downscaling models to replicate historical properties of climate and hydrologic extremes, as measured in terms of temporal sequencing (i.e. correlation tests) and distributional properties (i.e. tests for equality of probability distributions). Outputs from seven downscaling methods - bias correction constructed analogues (BCCA), double BCCA (DBCCA), BCCA with quantile mapping reordering (BCCAQ), bias correction spatial disaggregation (BCSD), BCSD using minimum/maximum temperature (BCSDX), the climate imprint delta method (CI), and bias corrected CI (BCCI) - are used to drive the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model over the snow-dominated Peace River basin, British Columbia. Outputs are tested using split-sample validation on 26 climate extremes indices (ClimDEX) and two hydrologic extremes indices (3-day peak flow and 7-day peak flow). To characterize observational uncertainty, four atmospheric reanalyses are used as climate model surrogates and two gridded observational data sets are used as downscaling target data. The skill of the downscaling methods generally depended on reanalysis and gridded observational data set. However, CI failed to reproduce the distribution and BCSD and BCSDX the timing of winter 7-day low-flow events, regardless of reanalysis or observational data set. Overall, DBCCA passed the greatest number of tests for the ClimDEX indices, while BCCAQ, which is designed to more accurately resolve event-scale spatial gradients, passed the greatest number of tests for hydrologic extremes. Non-stationarity in the observational/reanalysis data sets complicated the evaluation of downscaling performance. Comparing temporal homogeneity and trends in climate indices and hydrological model outputs calculated from downscaled reanalyses and gridded observations was useful for diagnosing the reliability of the various historical data sets. We recommend that such analyses be conducted before such data are used to construct future hydro-climatic change scenarios.

Lidar Temperature Measurements During the SOLVE Campaign and the Absence of PSCs from Regions of Very Cold Air

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Burris, John; McGee, Thomas; Hoegy, Walt; Newman, Paul; Lait, Leslie; Twigg, Laurence; Sumnicht, Grant; Heaps, William; Hostetler, Chris; Neuber, Roland;

Seasonally frozen layer in natural and drained peatlands at the South of West Siberia, Russia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dyukarev, Egor; Kiselev, Maxim; Voropay, Nadezhda; Preis, Yulia

2017-04-01

The temperature regime of soils in natural and drained peatlands at Bakchar bog located in the South Taiga zone of West Siberia is studied. Soil temperature for depths up to 320 cm was registered using autonomous temperature profile recorder during the period from August 2010 to September 2016. Maximal and minimal temperatures were registered at surface in July and February, consequently. Extreme soil temperatures at 320 cm depth shifts to December (maximum) and July (minimum) reducing absolute values. Annual peat soil temperature amplitude decrease with depth from 21,8 °C on surface to 1,1 °C at 320 cm. The analysis of daily, month and annual mean data of temperature in peat soil has shown that seasonally frozen layer was registered up to 20-60 cm depth. The duration of seasonally freeze layer existence varies from 130 to 180 days. Drained peatlands with the lowest water table have highest freeze depth. Soil at water-logged sedge-sphagnum fen in winter is warmer than soil in ryam ecosystem and mineral soil at upland. Maximal freezing depth in peatlands is up to 3 times lower than at drain areas.

Does size matter? Comparison of body temperature and activity of free-living Arabian oryx (Oryx leucoryx) and the smaller Arabian sand gazelle (Gazella subgutturosa marica) in the Saudi desert.

PubMed

Hetem, Robyn Sheila; Strauss, Willem Maartin; Fick, Linda Gayle; Maloney, Shane Kevin; Meyer, Leith Carl Rodney; Shobrak, Mohammed; Fuller, Andrea; Mitchell, Duncan

2012-04-01

Heterothermy, a variability in body temperature beyond the normal limits of homeothermy, is widely viewed as a key adaptation of arid-adapted ungulates. However, desert ungulates with a small body mass, i.e. a relatively large surface area-to-volume ratio and a small thermal inertia, are theoretically less likely to employ adaptive heterothermy than are larger ungulates. We measured body temperature and activity patterns, using implanted data loggers, in free-ranging Arabian oryx (Oryx leucoryx, ±70 kg) and the smaller Arabian sand gazelle (Gazella subgutturosa marica, ±15 kg) inhabiting the same Arabian desert environment, at the same time. Compared to oryx, sand gazelle had higher mean daily body temperatures (F(1,6) = 47.3, P = 0.0005), higher minimum daily body temperatures (F(1,6) = 42.6, P = 0.0006) and higher maximum daily body temperatures (F(1,6) = 11.0, P = 0.02). Despite these differences, both species responded similarly to changes in environmental conditions. As predicted for adaptive heterothermy, maximum daily body temperature increased (F(1,6) = 84.0, P < 0.0001), minimum daily body temperature decreased (F(1,6) = 92.2, P < 0.0001), and daily body temperature amplitude increased (F(1,6) = 97.6, P < 0.0001) as conditions got progressively hotter and drier. There were no species differences in activity levels, however, both gazelle and oryx showed a biphasic or crepuscular rhythm during the warm wet season but shifted to a more nocturnal rhythm during the hot dry season. Activity was attenuated during the heat of the day at times when both species selected cool microclimates. These two species of Arabian ungulates employ heterothermy, cathemerality and shade seeking very similarly to survive the extreme, arid conditions of Arabian deserts, despite their size difference.

Improved high temperature resistant matrix resins

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chang, G. E.; Powell, S. H.; Jones, R. J.

1983-01-01

The objective was to develop organic matrix resins suitable for service at temperatures up to 644 K (700 F) and at air pressures up to 0.4 MPa (60 psia) for time durations of a minimum of 100 hours. Matrix resins capable of withstanding these extreme oxidative environmental conditions would lead to increased use of polymer matrix composites in aircraft engines and provide significant weight and cost savings. Six linear condensation, aromatic/heterocyclic polymers containing fluorinated and/or diphenyl linkages were synthesized. The thermo-oxidative stability of the resins was determined at 644 K and compressed air pressures up to 0.4 MPa. Two formulations, both containing perfluoroisopropylidene linkages in the polymer backbone structure, exhibited potential for 644 K service to meet the program objectives. Two other formulations could not be fabricated into compression molded zero defect specimens.

Temperature and moisture conditions for life in the extreme arid region of the Atacama desert: four years of observations including the El Nino of 1997-1998

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McKay, Christopher P.; Friedmann, E. Imre; Gomez-Silva, Benito; Caceres-Villanueva, Luis; Andersen, Dale T.; Landheim, Ragnhild

2003-01-01

The Atacama along the Pacific Coast of Chile and Peru is one of the driest and possibly oldest deserts in the world. It represents an extreme habitat for life on Earth and is an analog for life in dry conditions on Mars. We report on four years (September 1994-October 1998) of climate and moisture data from the extreme arid region of the Atacama. Our data are focused on understanding moisture sources and their role in creating suitable environments for photosynthetic microorganisms in the desert surface. The average air temperature was 16.5 degrees C and 16.6 degrees C in 1995 and 1996, respectively. The maximum air temperature recorded was 37.9 degrees C, and the minimum was -5.7 degrees C. Annual average sunlight was 336 and 335 W m(-2) in 1995 and 1996, respectively. Winds averaged a few meters per second, with strong fohn winds coming from the west exceeding 12 m s(-1). During our 4 years of observation there was only one significant rain event of 2.3 mm, which occurred near midnight local time. We suggest that this event was a rainout of a heavy fog. It is of interest that the strong El Nino of 1997-1998 brought heavy rainfall to the deserts of Peru, but did not bring significant rain to the central Atacama in Chile. Dew occurred at our station frequently following high nighttime relative humidity, but is not a significant source of moisture in the soil or under stones. Groundwater also does not contribute to surface moisture. Only the one rain event of 2.3 mm resulted in liquid water in the soil and beneath stones for a total of only 65-85 h over 4 years. The paucity of liquid water under stones is consistent with the apparent absence of hypolithic (under-stone) cyanobacteria, the only known primary producers in such extreme deserts.

Climate variability in Andalusia (southern Spain) during the period 1701-1850 AD from documentary sources: evaluation and comparison with climate model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodrigo, F. S.; Gómez-Navarro, J. J.; Montávez Gómez, J. P.

2011-07-01

In this work, a reconstruction of climatic conditions in Andalusia (southern Iberia Peninsula) during the period 1701-1850, as well as an evaluation of its associated uncertainties, is presented. This period is interesting because it is characterized by a minimum in the solar irradiance (Dalton Minimum, around 1800), as well as intense volcanic activity (for instance, the eruption of the Tambora in 1815), when the increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations were of minor importance. The reconstruction is based on the analysis of a wide variety of documentary data. The reconstruction methodology is based on accounting the number of extreme events in past, and inferring mean value and standard deviation using the assumption of normal distribution for the seasonal means of climate variables. This reconstruction methodology is tested within the pseudoreality of a high-resolution paleoclimate simulation performed with the regional climate model MM5 coupled to the global model ECHO-G. Results show that the reconstructions are influenced by the reference period chosen and the threshold values used to define extreme values. This creates uncertainties which are assesed within the context of the climate simulation. An ensemble of reconstructions was obtained using two different reference periods and two pairs of percentiles as threshold values. Results correspond to winter temperature, and winter, spring, and autumn rainfall, and they are compared with simulations of the climate model for the considered period. The comparison of the distribution functions corresponding to 1790-1820 and 1960-1990 periods indicates that during the Dalton Minimum the frequency of dry and warm (wet and cold) winters was lesser (higher) than during the reference period. In spring and autumn it was detected an increase (decrease) in the frequency of wet (dry) seasons. Future research challenges are outlined.

Attributing Historical Changes in Probabilities of Record-Breaking Daily Temperature and Precipitation Extreme Events

DOE PAGES

Shiogama, Hideo; Imada, Yukiko; Mori, Masato; ...

2016-08-07

Here, we describe two unprecedented large (100-member), longterm (61-year) ensembles based on MRI-AGCM3.2, which were driven by historical and non-warming climate forcing. These ensembles comprise the "Database for Policy Decision making for Future climate change (d4PDF)". We compare these ensembles to large ensembles based on another climate model, as well as to observed data, to investigate the influence of anthropogenic activities on historical changes in the numbers of record-breaking events, including: the annual coldest daily minimum temperature (TNn), the annual warmest daily maximum temperature (TXx) and the annual most intense daily precipitation event (Rx1day). These two climate model ensembles indicatemore » that human activity has already had statistically significant impacts on the number of record-breaking extreme events worldwide mainly in the Northern Hemisphere land. Specifically, human activities have altered the likelihood that a wider area globally would suffer record-breaking TNn, TXx and Rx1day events than that observed over the 2001- 2010 period by a factor of at least 0.6, 5.4 and 1.3, respectively. However, we also find that the estimated spatial patterns and amplitudes of anthropogenic impacts on the probabilities of record-breaking events are sensitive to the climate model and/or natural-world boundary conditions used in the attribution studies.« less

Downscaling to the Climate Near the Ground: Measurements and Modeling Along the Macro-, Meso-, Topo-, and Microclimate Hierarchy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van de Ven, C.; Weiss, S. B.

2009-12-01

Most climate models are expressed at regional scales, with resolutions on the scales of kilometers. When used for ecological modeling, these climate models help explain only broad-scale trends, such as latitudinal and upslope migration of plants. However, more refined ecological models require down-scaled climate data at ecologically relevant spatial scales, and the goal of this presentation is to demonstrate robust downscaling methods. For example, in the White Mountains, eastern California, tree species, including bristlecone pine (Pinus longaeva) are seen moving not just upslope, but also sideways across aspects, and downslope into areas characterized by cold air drainage. Macroclimate in the White Mountains is semi-arid, residing in the rain shadow of the Sierra Nevada. Macroclimate is modified by mesoscale effects of mountain ranges, where climate becomes wetter and colder with elevation, the temperature decreasing according to the regionally and temporally-specific lapse rate. Local topography further modifies climate, where slope angle, aspect, and topographic position further impact the temperature at a given site. Finally, plants experience extremely localized microclimate, where surrounding vegetation provide differing degrees of shade. We measured and modeled topoclimate across the White Mountains using iButton Thermochron temperature data loggers during late summer in 2006 and 2008, and have documented effects of microclimatic temperature differences between sites in the open and shaded by shrubs. Starting with PRISM 800m data, we derived mesoscale lapse rates. Then, we calculated temperature differentials between each Thermochron and a long-term weather station in the middle of the range at Crooked Creek Valley. We modeled month-specific minimum temperature differentials by regressing the Thermochron-weather station minimum temperature differentials with various topographic parameters. Topographic position, the absolute value of topographic position, and slope combined to provide a very close fit (r2>0.9) to measured inversions of >8°C. Although topoclimatic maximum temperature models have been more elusive, regressions with degree hours greater than zero (DH>0) have been modeled with September insolation and slope (r2=0.7). In paired experiments, Thermochrons also recorded the temperature differences between the environment under sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata) and in the open, with an average minimum temperature difference of 2.1°C, and maximum temperature difference of 4.5°C. When we incorporate hourly weather station data, the strength of the inversion is weakened by wind, higher relative humidity, and cloudiness. This hierarchical modeling provides a template for downscaling climate and weather to ecologically relevant scales.

When do Indians feel hot? Internet searches indicate seasonality suppresses adaptation to heat

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, Tanya; Siderius, Christian; Van der Velde, Ype

2018-05-01

In a warming world an increasing number of people are being exposed to heat, making a comfortable thermal environment an important need. This study explores the potential of using Regional Internet Search Frequencies (RISF) for air conditioning devices as an indicator for thermal discomfort (i.e. dissatisfaction with the thermal environment) with the aim to quantify the adaptation potential of individuals living across different climate zones and at the high end of the temperature range, in India, where access to health data is limited. We related RISF for the years 2011–2015 to daily daytime outdoor temperature in 17 states and determined at which temperature RISF for air conditioning starts to peak, i.e. crosses a ‘heat threshold’, in each state. Using the spatial variation in heat thresholds, we explored whether people continuously exposed to higher temperatures show a lower response to heat extremes through adaptation (e.g. physiological, behavioural or psychological). State-level heat thresholds ranged from 25.9 °C in Madhya Pradesh to 31.0 °C in Orissa. Local adaptation was found to occur at state level: the higher the average temperature in a state, the higher the heat threshold; and the higher the intra-annual temperature range (warmest minus coldest month) the lower the heat threshold. These results indicate there is potential within India to adapt to warmer temperatures, but that a large intra-annual temperature variability attenuates this potential to adapt to extreme heat. This winter ‘reset’ mechanism should be taken into account when assessing the impact of global warming, with changes in minimum temperatures being an important factor in addition to the change in maximum temperatures itself. Our findings contribute to a better understanding of local heat thresholds and people’s adaptive capacity, which can support the design of local thermal comfort standards and early heat warning systems.

Statistical downscaling of CMIP5 outputs for projecting future maximum and minimum temperature over the Haihe River Bain, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Tiezhu; Shen, Zhenyao; Heng, Lee; Dercon, Gerd

2016-04-01

Future climate change information is important to formulate adaptation and mitigation strategies for climate change. In this study, a statistical downscaling model (SDSM) was established using both NCEP reanalysis data and ground observations (daily maximum and minimum temperature) during the period 1971-2010, and then calibrated model was applied to generate the future maximum and minimum temperature projections using predictors from the two CMIP5 models (MPI-ESM-LR and CNRM-CM5) under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) during the period 2011-2100 for the Haihe River Basin, China. Compared to the baseline period, future change in annual and seasonal maximum and minimum temperature was computed after bias correction. The spatial distribution and trend change of annual maximum and minimum temperature were also analyzed using ensemble projections. The results shows that: (1)The downscaling model had a good applicability on reproducing daily and monthly mean maximum and minimum temperature over the whole basin. (2) Bias was observed when using historical predictors from CMIP5 models and the performance of CNRM-CM5 was a little worse than that of MPI-ESM-LR. (3) The change in annual mean maximum and minimum temperature under the two scenarios in 2020s, 2050s and 2070s will increase and magnitude of maximum temperature will be higher than minimum temperature. (4) The increase in temperature in the mountains and along the coastline is remarkably high than the other parts of the studies basin. (5) For annual maximum and minimum temperature, the significant upward trend will be obtained under RCP 8.5 scenario and the magnitude will be 0.37 and 0.39 ℃ per decade, respectively; the increase in magnitude under RCP 2.6 scenario will be upward in 2020s and then decrease in 2050s and 2070s, and the magnitude will be 0.01 and 0.01℃ per decade, respectively.

40 CFR 60.37e - Compliance, performance testing, and monitoring guidelines.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... requirements: (1) Establish maximum charge rate and minimum secondary chamber temperature as site-specific... above the maximum charge rate or below the minimum secondary chamber temperature measured as 3-hour... below the minimum secondary chamber temperature shall constitute a violation of the established...

Linkage Between Hourly Precipitation Events and Atmospheric Temperature Changes over China during the Warm Season

PubMed Central

Miao, Chiyuan; Sun, Qiaohong; Borthwick, Alistair G. L.; Duan, Qingyun

2016-01-01

We investigated changes in the temporospatial features of hourly precipitation during the warm season over mainland China. The frequency and amount of hourly precipitation displayed latitudinal zonation, especially for light and moderate precipitation, which showed successive downward change over time in northeastern and southern China. Changes in the precipitation amount resulted mainly from changes in frequency rather than changes in intensity. We also evaluated the linkage between hourly precipitation and temperature variations and found that hourly precipitation extreme was more sensitive to temperature than other categories of precipitation. A strong dependency of hourly precipitation on temperature occurred at temperatures colder than the median daily temperature; in such cases, regression slopes were greater than the Clausius-Clapeyron (C-C) relation of 7% per degree Celsius. Regression slopes for 31.6%, 59.8%, 96.9%, and 99.1% of all stations were greater than 7% per degree Celsius for the 75th, 90th, 99th, and 99.9th percentiles for precipitation, respectively. The mean regression slopes within the 99.9th percentile of precipitation were three times the C-C rate. Hourly precipitation showed a strong negative relationship with daily maximum temperature and the diurnal temperature range at most stations, whereas the equivalent correlation for daily minimum temperature was weak. PMID:26931350

Use of Temperature, Humidity, and Slaughter Condemnation Data to Predict Increases in Transport Losses in Three Classes of Swine and Resulting Foregone Revenue.

PubMed

Peterson, Erik; Remmenga, Marta; Hagerman, Amy D; Akkina, Judy E

2017-01-01

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) conducts weekly surveillance of slaughter condemnation rates to provide early warning for emerging diseases and to monitor health trends in swine. Swine deaths in-transit are an animal welfare concern and represent lost revenue for the swine industry. This retrospective observational study used ambient temperature and humidity data from weather stations near United States slaughter plants collected from 2010 to 2015 to predict the incidence and risk of death among swine in-transit and just prior to slaughter. The risk of death for market swine at a heat index (HI), which combines the effects of temperature and humidity, indicating moderately hot weather conditions between 85 and 92°F was 1.37 times greater than that of the baseline temperature range of 54-79°F. The risk of death for cull sows at an HI between 85 and 92°F was 1.93 times greater than that of average temperatures ranging from 54 to 79°F. Roaster swine (weigh < 220 lbs and often used for whole carcass roasting), however, had 0.80 times the risk when the HI was 85-92°F compared to a baseline temperature of 54-79°F. The risk of death for roaster swine at a minimum temperature between 40 and 50°F was 1.21 times greater than that of average temperatures ranging from 54 to 79°F. The risk of death for market swine at a minimum temperature range of 40-50°F was 0.97 times that of average temperatures ranging from 54 to 79°F. And for cull sows, the risk of death at a minimum temperature range of 40-50°F was 0.81 times the risk at the average temperature ranging from 54 to 79°F. Across the study period, cumulative foregone revenue, or revenue not realized due to swine condemnations, for all swine was $18.6 million and $4.3 million for cold temperatures and high HI ranges above the baseline, respectively. Marginal foregone revenue per hog in hotter months is higher due to seasonal peaks in swine prices. As a result of this study, the USDA-APHIS swine condemnation surveillance can incorporate weekly estimated HI values and ambient temperature data for slaughter establishments to provide additional information for analysts investigating signals (noteworthy increases above baseline) for "dead" condemnations. This study suggests that current mitigation measures are often not sufficient to prevent swine deaths due to ambient temperature extremes.

Temperature fine-tunes Mediterranean Arabidopsis thaliana life-cycle phenology geographically.

PubMed

Marcer, A; Vidigal, D S; James, P M A; Fortin, M-J; Méndez-Vigo, B; Hilhorst, H W M; Bentsink, L; Alonso-Blanco, C; Picó, F X

2018-01-01

To understand how adaptive evolution in life-cycle phenology operates in plants, we need to unravel the effects of geographic variation in putative agents of natural selection on life-cycle phenology by considering all key developmental transitions and their co-variation patterns. We address this goal by quantifying the temperature-driven and geographically varying relationship between seed dormancy and flowering time in the annual Arabidopsis thaliana across the Iberian Peninsula. We used data on genetic variation in two major life-cycle traits, seed dormancy (DSDS50) and flowering time (FT), in a collection of 300 A. thaliana accessions from the Iberian Peninsula. The geographically varying relationship between life-cycle traits and minimum temperature, a major driver of variation in DSDS50 and FT, was explored with geographically weighted regressions (GWR). The environmentally varying correlation between DSDS50 and FT was analysed by means of sliding window analysis across a minimum temperature gradient. Maximum local adjustments between minimum temperature and life-cycle traits were obtained in the southwest Iberian Peninsula, an area with the highest minimum temperatures. In contrast, in off-southwest locations, the effects of minimum temperature on DSDS50 were rather constant across the region, whereas those of minimum temperature on FT were more variable, with peaks of strong local adjustments of GWR models in central and northwest Spain. Sliding window analysis identified a minimum temperature turning point in the relationship between DSDS50 and FT around a minimum temperature of 7.2 °C. Above this minimum temperature turning point, the variation in the FT/DSDS50 ratio became rapidly constrained and the negative correlation between FT and DSDS50 did not increase any further with increasing minimum temperatures. The southwest Iberian Peninsula emerges as an area where variation in life-cycle phenology appears to be restricted by the duration and severity of the hot summer drought. The temperature-driven varying relationship between DSDS50 and FT detected environmental boundaries for the co-evolution between FT and DSDS50 in A. thaliana. In the context of global warming, we conclude that A. thaliana phenology from the southwest Iberian Peninsula, determined by early flowering and deep seed dormancy, might become the most common life-cycle phenotype for this annual plant in the region. © 2017 German Botanical Society and The Royal Botanical Society of the Netherlands.

Characteristics of sub-daily precipitation extremes in observed data and regional climate model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beranová, Romana; Kyselý, Jan; Hanel, Martin

2018-04-01

The study compares characteristics of observed sub-daily precipitation extremes in the Czech Republic with those simulated by Hadley Centre Regional Model version 3 (HadRM3) and Rossby Centre Regional Atmospheric Model version 4 (RCA4) regional climate models (RCMs) driven by reanalyses and examines diurnal cycles of hourly precipitation and their dependence on intensity and surface temperature. The observed warm-season (May-September) maxima of short-duration (1, 2 and 3 h) amounts show one diurnal peak in the afternoon, which is simulated reasonably well by RCA4, although the peak occurs too early in the model. HadRM3 provides an unrealistic diurnal cycle with a nighttime peak and an afternoon minimum coinciding with the observed maximum for all three ensemble members, which suggests that convection is not captured realistically. Distorted relationships of the diurnal cycles of hourly precipitation to daily maximum temperature in HadRM3 further evidence that underlying physical mechanisms are misrepresented in this RCM. Goodness-of-fit tests indicate that generalised extreme value distribution is an applicable model for both observed and RCM-simulated precipitation maxima. However, the RCMs are not able to capture the range of the shape parameter estimates of distributions of short-duration precipitation maxima realistically, leading to either too many (nearly all for HadRM3) or too few (RCA4) grid boxes in which the shape parameter corresponds to a heavy tail. This means that the distributions of maxima of sub-daily amounts are distorted in the RCM-simulated data and do not match reality well. Therefore, projected changes of sub-daily precipitation extremes in climate change scenarios based on RCMs not resolving convection need to be interpreted with caution.

Simulation of hydrodynamics, temperature, and dissolved oxygen in Beaver Lake, Arkansas, 1994-1995

USGS Publications Warehouse

Haggard, Brian; Green, W. Reed

2002-01-01

The tailwaters of Beaver Lake and other White River reservoirs support a cold-water trout fishery of significant economic yield in northwestern Arkansas. The Arkansas Game and Fish Commission has requested an increase in existing minimum flows through the Beaver Lake dam to increase the amount of fishable waters downstream. Information is needed to assess the impact of additional minimum flows on temperature and dissolved-oxygen qualities of reservoir water above the dam and the release water. A two-dimensional, laterally averaged hydrodynamic, thermal and dissolved-oxygen model was developed and calibrated for Beaver Lake, Arkansas. The model simulates surface-water elevation, currents, heat transport and dissolved-oxygen dynamics. The model was developed to assess the impacts of proposed increases in minimum flows from 1.76 cubic meters per second (the existing minimum flow) to 3.85 cubic meters per second (the additional minimum flow). Simulations included assessing (1) the impact of additional minimum flows on tailwater temperature and dissolved-oxygen quality and (2) increasing initial water-surface elevation 0.5 meter and assessing the impact of additional minimum flow on tailwater temperatures and dissolved-oxygen concentrations. The additional minimum flow simulation (without increasing initial pool elevation) appeared to increase the water temperature (<0.9 degrees Celsius) and decrease dissolved oxygen concentration (<2.2 milligrams per liter) in the outflow discharge. Conversely, the additional minimum flow plus initial increase in pool elevation (0.5 meter) simulation appeared to decrease outflow water temperature (0.5 degrees Celsius) and increase dissolved oxygen concentration (<1.2 milligrams per liter) through time. However, results from both minimum flow scenarios for both water temperature and dissolved oxygen concentration were within the boundaries or similar to the error between measured and simulated water column profile values.

The impact of sustained hot weather on risk of acute work-related injury in Melbourne, Australia.

PubMed

McInnes, Judith Anne; MacFarlane, Ewan M; Sim, Malcolm R; Smith, Peter

2018-02-01

It has been reported that weather-related high ambient temperature is associated with an increased risk of work-related injury. Understanding this relationship is important because work-related injuries are a major public health problem, and because projected climate changes will potentially expose workers to hot days, including consecutive hot days, more often. The aim of this study was to quantify the impact of exposure to sustained periods of hot weather on work-related injury risk for workers in Melbourne, Australia. A time-stratified case crossover study design was utilised to examine the association between two and three consecutive days and two and three consecutive nights of hot weather and the risk of work-related injury, using definitions of hot weather ranging from the 60th to the 95th percentile of daily maximum and minimum temperatures for the Melbourne metropolitan area, 2002-2012. Workers' compensation claim data was used to identify cases of acute work-related injury. Overall, two and three consecutive days of hot weather were associated with an increased risk of injury, with this effect becoming apparent at a daily maximum temperature of 27.6 °C (70th percentile). Three consecutive days of high but not extreme temperatures were associated with the strongest effect, with a 15% increased risk of injury (odds ratio 1.15, 95% confidence interval 1.01-1.30) observed when daily maximum temperature was ≥33.3 °C (90th percentile) for three consecutive days, compared to when it was not. At a threshold of 35.5 °C (95th percentile), there was no significant association between temperature and injury for either two or three consecutive days of heat. These findings suggest that warnings to minimise harm to workers from hot weather should be given, and prevention protocol initiated, when consecutive warm days of temperatures lower than extreme heat temperatures are forecast, and well before the upper ranges of ambient daytime temperatures are reached.

The impact of sustained hot weather on risk of acute work-related injury in Melbourne, Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McInnes, Judith Anne; MacFarlane, Ewan M.; Sim, Malcolm R.; Smith, Peter

2018-02-01

It has been reported that weather-related high ambient temperature is associated with an increased risk of work-related injury. Understanding this relationship is important because work-related injuries are a major public health problem, and because projected climate changes will potentially expose workers to hot days, including consecutive hot days, more often. The aim of this study was to quantify the impact of exposure to sustained periods of hot weather on work-related injury risk for workers in Melbourne, Australia. A time-stratified case crossover study design was utilised to examine the association between two and three consecutive days and two and three consecutive nights of hot weather and the risk of work-related injury, using definitions of hot weather ranging from the 60th to the 95th percentile of daily maximum and minimum temperatures for the Melbourne metropolitan area, 2002-2012. Workers' compensation claim data was used to identify cases of acute work-related injury. Overall, two and three consecutive days of hot weather were associated with an increased risk of injury, with this effect becoming apparent at a daily maximum temperature of 27.6 °C (70th percentile). Three consecutive days of high but not extreme temperatures were associated with the strongest effect, with a 15% increased risk of injury (odds ratio 1.15, 95% confidence interval 1.01-1.30) observed when daily maximum temperature was ≥33.3 °C (90th percentile) for three consecutive days, compared to when it was not. At a threshold of 35.5 °C (95th percentile), there was no significant association between temperature and injury for either two or three consecutive days of heat. These findings suggest that warnings to minimise harm to workers from hot weather should be given, and prevention protocol initiated, when consecutive warm days of temperatures lower than extreme heat temperatures are forecast, and well before the upper ranges of ambient daytime temperatures are reached.

Stochastic modelling of the monthly average maximum and minimum temperature patterns in India 1981-2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Narasimha Murthy, K. V.; Saravana, R.; Vijaya Kumar, K.

2018-04-01

The paper investigates the stochastic modelling and forecasting of monthly average maximum and minimum temperature patterns through suitable seasonal auto regressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model for the period 1981-2015 in India. The variations and distributions of monthly maximum and minimum temperatures are analyzed through Box plots and cumulative distribution functions. The time series plot indicates that the maximum temperature series contain sharp peaks in almost all the years, while it is not true for the minimum temperature series, so both the series are modelled separately. The possible SARIMA model has been chosen based on observing autocorrelation function (ACF), partial autocorrelation function (PACF), and inverse autocorrelation function (IACF) of the logarithmic transformed temperature series. The SARIMA (1, 0, 0) × (0, 1, 1)12 model is selected for monthly average maximum and minimum temperature series based on minimum Bayesian information criteria. The model parameters are obtained using maximum-likelihood method with the help of standard error of residuals. The adequacy of the selected model is determined using correlation diagnostic checking through ACF, PACF, IACF, and p values of Ljung-Box test statistic of residuals and using normal diagnostic checking through the kernel and normal density curves of histogram and Q-Q plot. Finally, the forecasting of monthly maximum and minimum temperature patterns of India for the next 3 years has been noticed with the help of selected model.

Evidence for behavioural thermoregulation by the world's largest fish

PubMed Central

Thums, Michele; Meekan, Mark; Stevens, John; Wilson, Steven; Polovina, Jeff

2013-01-01

Many fishes make frequent ascents to surface waters and often show prolonged surface swimming following descents to deep water. This affinity for the surface is thought to be related to the recovery of body heat lost at depth. We tested this hypothesis using data from time–depth recorders deployed on four whale sharks (Rhincodon typus). We summarized vertical movements into bouts of dives and classified these into three main types, using cluster analysis. In addition to day and night ‘bounce’ dives where sharks rapidly descended and ascended, we found a third type: single deep (mean: 340 m), long (mean: 169 min) dives, occurring in daytime with extremely long post-dive surface durations (mean: 146 min). Only sharks that were not constrained by shallow bathymetry performed these dives. We found a negative relationship between the mean surface duration of dives in the bout and the mean minimum temperature of dives in the bout that is consistent with the hypothesis that thermoregulation was a major factor driving use of the surface. The relationship broke down when sharks were diving in mean minimum temperatures around 25°C, suggesting that warmer waters did not incur a large metabolic cost for diving and that other factors may also influence surface use. PMID:23075547

[Multi-temporal scale analysis of impacts of extreme high temperature on net carbon uptake in subtropical coniferous plantation.

PubMed

Zhang, Mi; Wen, Xue Fa; Zhang, Lei Ming; Wang, Hui Min; Guo, Yi Wen; Yu, Gui Rui

2018-02-01

Extreme high temperature is one of important extreme weathers that impact forest ecosystem carbon cycle. In this study, applying CO 2 flux and routine meteorological data measured during 2003-2012, we examined the impacts of extreme high temperature and extreme high temperature event on net carbon uptake of subtropical coniferous plantation in Qianyanzhou. Combining with wavelet analysis, we analyzed environmental controls on net carbon uptake at different temporal scales, when the extreme high temperature and extreme high temperature event happened. The results showed that mean daily cumulative NEE decreased by 51% in the days with daily maximum air temperature range between 35 ℃ and 40 ℃, compared with that in the days with the range between 30 ℃ and 34 ℃. The effects of the extreme high temperature and extreme high temperature event on monthly NEE and annual NEE related to the strength and duration of extreme high tempe-rature event. In 2003, when strong extreme high temperature event happened, the sum of monthly cumulative NEE in July and August was only -11.64 g C·m -2 ·(2 month) -1 . The value decreased by 90%, compared with multi-year average value. At the same time, the relative variation of annual NEE reached -6.7%. In July and August, when the extreme high temperature and extreme high temperature event occurred, air temperature (T a ) and vapor press deficit (VPD) were the dominant controller for the daily variation of NEE. The coherency between NEE T a and NEE VPD was 0.97 and 0.95, respectively. At 8-, 16-, and 32-day periods, T a , VPD, soil water content at 5 cm depth (SWC), and precipitation (P) controlled NEE. The coherency between NEE SWC and NEE P was higher than 0.8 at monthly scale. The results indicated that atmospheric water deficit impacted NEE at short temporal scale, when the extreme high temperature and extreme high temperature event occurred, both of atmospheric water deficit and soil drought stress impacted NEE at long temporal scales in this ecosystem.

Recent climatic changes in the Northern Extratropics with foci on extreme events and transitions through environmentally and socio-economically significant thresholds (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Groisman, P. Y.; Knight, R. W.; Karl, T. R.

2009-12-01

Contemporary climate models send several very different messages regarding changes in the energy and water cycle over northern extratropical land areas that are leading to climate extremes of different kinds. For the regions of the Northern Extratropics with a dense network of long-term time series of daily observations, we quantified several lines of evidence of contemporary changes that have lead to changes in the frequency (and intensity) of extreme events. Among these extreme events are very heavy rainfall events, prolonged no-rain intervals, indices that characterize severity of the “fire” weather, and timing and magnitude of peak streamflow. We paid a special attention to recent climatic changes in the Northern Extratropics characteristics of the seasonal cycle such as temperature transitions through environmentally and socio-economically significant thresholds (e.g., no-frost period, duration and “strength” of growing season and cold seasons, frequency and intensity of hot and cold spells) and energy accumulated indices that are proportional to the societal need to cope with seasonal weather (e.g., heating-degree and cooling degree days). These thresholds do not necessarily characterize extreme events, but rather changes in their dates, duration, totals, or distribution within the year which may affect society. In particular, our analyses for North America show increasing rates of changes in most of characteristics of the temperature seasonal cycle during the past few decades. Some of these changes can be considered as positive while others cause concern. In particular, in the area of the North American Monsoon (southwestern US) we observe strong warming that together with the precipitation deficit increases chances of detrimental weather conditions such as extremely hot nights that affect human health, prolonged no-rain periods, and higher values of the fire weather indices. Generally, the impact of hot nights on human health (a relative frequency of heart attacks) is well established. Now, with minimum temperature continuing to rise, this impact has become more severe everywhere in the eastern and southern United States and even in Russia. During the past four decades, there was an approximately 60% nationwide increase in the number of “hot nights” over the conterminous U.S. and in the densely populated northwestern U.S. the number of such nights (usually very low before the 1960s) more than doubled.

Frost risk for overwintering crops in a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vico, Giulia; Weih, Martin

2013-04-01

Climate change scenarios predict a general increase in daily temperatures and a decline in snow cover duration. On the one hand, higher temperature in fall and spring may facilitate the development of overwintering crops and allow the expansion of winter cropping in locations where the growing season is currently too short. On the other hand, higher temperatures prior to winter crop dormancy slow down frost hardening, enhancing crop vulnerability to temperature fluctuation. Such vulnerability may be exacerbated by reduced snow cover, with potential further negative impacts on yields in extremely low temperatures. We propose a parsimonious probabilistic model to quantify the winter frost damage risk for overwintering crops, based on a coupled model of air temperature, snow cover, and crop minimum tolerable temperature. The latter is determined by crop features, previous history of temperature, and snow cover. The temperature-snow cover model is tested against meteorological data collected over 50 years in Sweden and applied to winter wheat varieties differing in their ability to acquire frost resistance. Hence, exploiting experimental results assessing crop frost damage under limited temperature and snow cover realizations, this probabilistic framework allows the quantification of frost risk for different crop varieties, including in full temperature and precipitation unpredictability. Climate change scenarios are explored to quantify the effects of changes in temperature mean and variance and precipitation regime over crops differing in winter frost resistance and response to temperature.

Reduced Urban Heat Island intensity under warmer conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scott, Anna A.; Waugh, Darryn W.; Zaitchik, Ben F.

2018-06-01

The Urban Heat Island (UHI), the tendency for urban areas to be hotter than rural regions, represents a significant health concern in summer as urban populations are exposed to elevated temperatures. A number of studies suggest that the UHI increases during warmer conditions, however there has been no investigation of this for a large ensemble of cities. Here we compare urban and rural temperatures in 54 US cities for 2000–2015 and show that the intensity of the Urban Heat Island, measured here as the differences in daily-minimum or daily-maximum temperatures between urban and rural stations or ΔT, in fact tends to decrease with increasing temperature in most cities (38/54). This holds when investigating daily variability, heat extremes, and variability across climate zones and is primarily driven by changes in rural areas. We relate this change to large-scale or synoptic weather conditions, and find that the lowest ΔT nights occur during moist weather conditions. We also find that warming cities have not experienced an increasing Urban Heat Island effect.

Reconstructing patterns of temperature, phenology, and frost damage over 124 years: spring damage risk is increasing.

PubMed

Augspurger, Carol K

2013-01-01

Climate change, with both warmer spring temperatures and greater temperature fluctuations, has altered phenologies, possibly leading to greater risk of spring frost damage to temperate deciduous woody plants. Phenological observations of 20 woody species from 1993 to 2012 in Trelease Woods, Champaign County, Illinois, USA, were used to identify years with frost damage to vegetative and reproductive phases. Local temperature records were used in combination with the phenological observations to determine what combinations of the two were associated with damage. Finally, a long-term temperature record (1889-1992) was evaluated to determine if the frequency of frost damage has risen in recent decades. Frost < or = -1.7 degrees C occurred after bud-break in 14 of the 20 years of observation. Frost damage occurred in five years in the interior and in three additional years at only the forest edge. The degree of damage varied with species, life stage, tissue (vegetative or reproductive), and phenological phase. Common features associated with the occurrence of damage to interior plants were (1) a period of unusual warm temperatures in March, followed by (2) a frost event in April with a minimum temperature < or = -6.1 degrees C with (3) a period of 16-33 days between the extremes. In the long-term record, 10 of 124 years met these conditions, but the yearly probability of frost damage increased significantly, from 0.03 during 1889-1979 to 0.21 during 1980-2012. When the criteria were "softened" to < or = -1.7 degrees C in April and an interval of 16-37 days, 31 of 124 years met the conditions, and the yearly damage probability increased significantly to 0.19 for 1889-1979 and 0.42 for 1980-2012. In this forest, the combination of warming trends and temperature variability (extremes) associated with climate change is having ecologically important effects, making previously rare frost damage events more common.

A finite-state, finite-memory minimum principle, part 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sandell, N. R., Jr.; Athans, M.

1975-01-01

In part 1 of this paper, a minimum principle was found for the finite-state, finite-memory (FSFM) stochastic control problem. In part 2, conditions for the sufficiency of the minimum principle are stated in terms of the informational properties of the problem. This is accomplished by introducing the notion of a signaling strategy. Then a min-H algorithm based on the FSFM minimum principle is presented. This algorithm converges, after a finite number of steps, to a person - by - person extremal solution.

On the Trend of the Annual Mean, Maximum, and Minimum Temperature and the Diurnal Temperature Range in the Armagh Observatory, Northern Ireland, Dataset, 1844 -2012

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert M.

2013-01-01

Examined are the annual averages, 10-year moving averages, decadal averages, and sunspot cycle (SC) length averages of the mean, maximum, and minimum surface air temperatures and the diurnal temperature range (DTR) for the Armagh Observatory, Northern Ireland, during the interval 1844-2012. Strong upward trends are apparent in the Armagh surface-air temperatures (ASAT), while a strong downward trend is apparent in the DTR, especially when the ASAT data are averaged by decade or over individual SC lengths. The long-term decrease in the decadaland SC-averaged annual DTR occurs because the annual minimum temperatures have risen more quickly than the annual maximum temperatures. Estimates are given for the Armagh annual mean, maximum, and minimum temperatures and the DTR for the current decade (2010-2019) and SC24.

40 CFR 63.1257 - Test methods and compliance procedures.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

...)(2), or 63.1256(h)(2)(i)(C) with a minimum residence time of 0.5 seconds and a minimum temperature of... temperature of the organic HAP, must consider the vent stream flow rate, and must establish the design minimum and average temperature in the combustion zone and the combustion zone residence time. (B) For a...

40 CFR 63.1257 - Test methods and compliance procedures.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

...)(2), or 63.1256(h)(2)(i)(C) with a minimum residence time of 0.5 seconds and a minimum temperature of... temperature of the organic HAP, must consider the vent stream flow rate, and must establish the design minimum and average temperature in the combustion zone and the combustion zone residence time. (B) For a...

40 CFR 63.1257 - Test methods and compliance procedures.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

...)(2), or 63.1256(h)(2)(i)(C) with a minimum residence time of 0.5 seconds and a minimum temperature of... temperature of the organic HAP, must consider the vent stream flow rate, and must establish the design minimum and average temperature in the combustion zone and the combustion zone residence time. (B) For a...

Modification of the degree-day formula for diurnal meltwater generation and refreezing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Žaknić-Ćatović, Ana; Howard, Ken W. F.; Ćatović, Zlatko

2018-02-01

The standard degree-day, temperature-index approach to calculating snowmelt generation and refreezing (the SDD method) is convenient and popularly used but seriously miscalculates the volumes of water that change phase on days when temperatures fluctuate either side of the freezing point. Additionally, the SDD method does not provide any estimate of the duration of daily melting and refreezing events. A modified version of the standard formula is introduced (the MDD method) that overcomes such problems by removing dependence on a single temperature index (the average daily temperature estimated over a 24-h period beginning at midnight) and instead transfers reliance onto daily air temperature extremes (maximum and minimum temperatures) at known times of occurrence. In this way, the modified formula retains the simplicity of the standard approach while targeting those segments of the diurnal air temperature curve that directly relate to periods of melting and freezing. Newly introduced temperature and time degree-day parameters allow the duration of melting and refreezing events to be estimated. The MDD method was evaluated for two sites in the snow-belt region of Canada where the availability of hourly records of daily temperature allowed the required MDD input parameters to be calculated reliably and thus used for comparative purposes. During testing, the MDD input parameters were obtained from daily temperature extremes and their times of occurrence, using two alternative approaches to synthetic air temperature curve generation, one linear, the other trigonometric. Very good agreement was obtained in both cases and confirms the value of the MDD approach. However, there is no significant benefit to be gained by using air temperature approximating functions more complicated than the linear method for supplementing the missing continuous air temperature measurements. Finally, the MDD approach is not seen as a replacement for the regular SDD method, so much as tool that can be applied when the SDD methodology is likely to become unreliable. This is best achieved by using a hybrid SDD-MDD algorithm that invokes the MDD approach only when the necessary conditions arise.

Monitoring of soil and air-rock temperatures in the Western Massif of the Picos de Europa (Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruiz-Fernández, Jesús; Vieira, Gonçalo; García, Cristina

2013-04-01

In this paper we study the ground thermal regime and air-rock interface in the Western Massif of the Picos de Europa (Cantabrian Range, Spain). This calcareous massif is highly affected by karstification processes. Quaternary glaciers, fluvio-torrential processes and present-day periglacial processes also contribute to explain the landforms present in this massif. Up to 9 dataloggers were installed during 6 years in different sites in terms of altitude, orientation, slope and geomorpolohical setting recording temperatures every two hours. The number of freeze-thaw cycles in the soil(between 0 and 16) was controlled by the depth of the snow cover. The temperatures in the interface rock-air showed between 30-60 cycles, reaching 119 and 130 during the year 2007-2008. Extreme minimum temperatures in the soil oscillate between 0.3 and -6.3, while in the rocky walls the loggers recorded temperatures between -7.3 and -14.3°C. Monitoring of soil temperatures around the ice patch - the only one in the massif today - resulted in slightly negative mean annual temperatures. These conditions may reveal the existence of sporadic permafrost on debris that cover the ice patch. Both the buried ice and the permafrost are in disequilibrium with the current environmental conditions of the massif.

Estimation of minimum ventilation requirement of dairy cattle barns for different outdoor temperature and its affects on indoor temperature: Bursa case.

PubMed

Yaslioglu, Erkan; Simsek, Ercan; Kilic, Ilker

2007-04-15

In the study, 10 different dairy cattle barns with natural ventilation system were investigated in terms of structural aspects. VENTGRAPH software package was used to estimate minimum ventilation requirements for three different outdoor design temperatures (-3, 0 and 1.7 degrees C). Variation in indoor temperatures was also determined according to the above-mentioned conditions. In the investigated dairy cattle barns, on condition that minimum ventilation requirement to be achieved for -3, 0 and 1.7 degrees C outdoor design temperature and 70, 80% Indoor Relative Humidity (IRH), estimated indoor temperature were ranged from 2.2 to 12.2 degrees C for 70% IRH, 4.3 to 15.0 degrees C for 80% IRH. Barn type, outdoor design temperature and indoor relative humidity significantly (p < 0.01) affect the indoor temperature. The highest ventilation requirement was calculated for straw yard (13879 m3 h(-1)) while the lowest was estimated for tie-stall (6169.20 m3 h(-1)). Estimated minimum ventilation requirements per animal were significantly (p < 0.01) different according to the barn types. Effect of outdoor esign temperatures on minimum ventilation requirements and minimum ventilation requirements per animal was found to be significant (p < 0.05, p < 0.01). Estimated indoor temperatures were in thermoneutral zone (-2 to 20 degrees C). Therefore, one can be said that use of naturally ventilated cold dairy barns in the region will not lead to problems associated with animal comfort in winter.

Delayed responses of an Arctic ecosystem to an extremely dry summer: impacts on net ecosystem exchange and vegetation functioning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zona, D.; Lipson, D. A.; Richards, J. H.; Phoenix, G. K.; Liljedahl, A. K.; Ueyama, M.; Sturtevant, C. S.; Oechel, W. C.

2013-12-01

The importance and mode of action of extreme events on the global carbon budget are inadequately understood. This includes the differential impact of extreme events on various ecosystem components, lag effects, recovery times, and compensatory processes. Summer 2007 in Barrow, Arctic Alaska, experienced unusually high air temperatures (fifth warmest over a 65 yr period) and record low precipitation (lowest over a 65 yr period). These abnormal conditions resulted in strongly reduced net Sphagnum CO2 uptake, but no effect neither on vascular plant development nor on net ecosystem exchange (NEE) from this arctic tundra ecosystem. Gross primary production (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (Reco) were both generally greater during most of this extreme summer. Cumulative ecosystem C uptake in 2007 was similar to the previous summers, showing the capacity of the ecosystem to compensate in its net ecosystem exchange (NEE) despite the impact on other functions and structure such as substantial necrosis of the Sphagnum layer. Surprisingly, the lowest ecosystem C uptake (2005-2009) was observed during the 2008 summer, i.e the year directly following the extremely summer. In 2008, cumulative C uptake was ∼70% lower than prior years. This reduction cannot solely be attributed to mosses, which typically contribute with ∼40% - of the entire ecosystem C uptake. The minimum summer cumulative C uptake in 2008 suggests that the entire ecosystem experienced difficulty readjusting to more typical weather after experiencing exceptionally warm and dry conditions. Importantly, the return to a substantial cumulative C uptake occurred two summers after the extreme event, which suggest a high resilience of this tundra ecosystem. Overall, these results show a highly complex response of the C uptake and its sub-components to atypically dry conditions. The impact of multiple extreme events still awaits further investigation.

The impact of an extreme case of irrigation on the southeastern United States climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Selman, Christopher; Misra, Vasubandhu

2017-02-01

The impacts of irrigation on southeast United States diurnal climate are investigated using simulations from a regional climate model. An extreme case is assumed, wherein irrigation is set to 100 % of field capacity over the growing season of May through October. Irrigation is applied to the root zone layers of 10-40 and 40-100 cm soil layers only. It is found that in this regime there is a pronounced decrease in monthly averaged temperatures in irrigated regions across all months. In non-irrigated areas a slight warming is simulated. Diurnal maximum temperatures in irrigated areas warm, while diurnal minimum temperatures cool. The daytime warming is attributed to an increase in shortwave flux at the surface owing to diminished low cloud cover. Nighttime and daily mean cooling result as a consequence repartitioning of energy into latent heat flux over sensible heat flux, and of a higher net downward ground heat flux. Excess heat is transported into the deep soil layer, preventing a rapidly intensifying positive feedback loop. Both diurnal and monthly average precipitations are reduced over irrigated areas at a magnitude and spatial pattern similar to one another. Due to the excess moisture availability, evaporation is seen to increase, but this is nearly balanced by a corresponding reduction in sensible heat flux. Concomitant with additional moisture availability is an increase in both transient and stationary moisture flux convergences. However, despite the increase, there is a large-scale stabilization of the atmosphere stemming from a cooled surface.

Frost damage in citric and olive production as the result of climate degradation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saa Requejo, A.; Díaz Alvarez, M. C.; Tarquis, A. M.; Burgaz Moreno, F.; Garcia Moreno, R.

2009-04-01

Low temperature is one of the chief limiting factors in plant distribution. Freezing temperature shortens the growing season and may lower the yield and quality of any number of fruit crops. Minimum temperatures records for the Spanish region of Murcia were studied as limiting factor in fruit production. An analysis of temperature series since 1935 showed that the range of the absolute minimum temperatures (Tmin) on frost days in the target year, namely -0.5 °C to -4.0°C, was statistically similar to the range recorded in 1993, while the mean minimum temperatures (tmin) were found to have risen. The historical series also showed the mean minimum temperatures (tmin) to have increased, however. Through 1985, tmin ranged from 4.0 to -2.0 °C, depending on the area, while these limits shifted in more recent years to 7.0 - 0.5 °C. This increase in mean temperature produced that the frost episodes in March 2004 was considered by lemon, mandarin and olive producers as the worst in many years for frost damage since the minimum temperature was reached in a more sensitive phenological stage, despite the statistical evidence that similar freezing temperatures had been reached on similar dates in other years.

Survival of Desulfotomaculum spores from estuarine sediments after serial autoclaving and high-temperature exposure

PubMed Central

O'Sullivan, Louise A; Roussel, Erwan G; Weightman, Andrew J; Webster, Gordon; Hubert, Casey RJ; Bell, Emma; Head, Ian; Sass, Henrik; Parkes, R John

2015-01-01

Bacterial spores are widespread in marine sediments, including those of thermophilic, sulphate-reducing bacteria, which have a high minimum growth temperature making it unlikely that they grow in situ. These Desulfotomaculum spp. are thought to be from hot environments and are distributed by ocean currents. Their cells and spores upper temperature limit for survival is unknown, as is whether they can survive repeated high-temperature exposure that might occur in hydrothermal systems. This was investigated by incubating estuarine sediments significantly above (40–80 °C) maximum in situ temperatures (∼23 °C), and with and without prior triple autoclaving. Sulphate reduction occurred at 40–60 °C and at 60 °C was unaffected by autoclaving. Desulfotomaculum sp. C1A60 was isolated and was most closely related to the thermophilic D. kuznetsoviiT (∼96% 16S rRNA gene sequence identity). Cultures of Desulfotomaculum sp. C1A60, D. kuznetsoviiTand D. geothermicum B2T survived triple autoclaving while other related Desulfotomaculum spp. did not, although they did survive pasteurisation. Desulfotomaculum sp. C1A60 and D. kuznetsovii cultures also survived more extreme autoclaving (C1A60, 130 °C for 15 min; D. kuznetsovii, 135 °C for 15 min, maximum of 154 °C reached) and high-temperature conditions in an oil bath (C1A60, 130° for 30 min, D. kuznetsovii 140 °C for 15 min). Desulfotomaculum sp. C1A60 with either spores or predominantly vegetative cells demonstrated that surviving triple autoclaving was due to spores. Spores also had very high culturability compared with vegetative cells (∼30 × higher). Combined extreme temperature survival and high culturability of some thermophilic Desulfotomaculum spp. make them very effective colonisers of hot environments, which is consistent with their presence in subsurface geothermal waters and petroleum reservoirs. PMID:25325382

EXPLAINING INVERTED-TEMPERATURE LOOPS IN THE QUIET SOLAR CORONA WITH MAGNETOHYDRODYNAMIC WAVE-MODE CONVERSION

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schiff, Avery J.; Cranmer, Steven R.

Coronal loops trace out bipolar, arch-like magnetic fields above the Sun’s surface. Recent measurements that combine rotational tomography, extreme-ultraviolet imaging, and potential-field extrapolation have shown the existence of large loops with inverted-temperature profiles, i.e., loops for which the apex temperature is a local minimum, not a maximum. These “down loops” appear to exist primarily in equatorial quiet regions near solar minimum. We simulate both these and the more prevalent large-scale “up loops” by modeling coronal heating as a time-steady superposition of (1) dissipation of incompressible Alfvén wave turbulence and (2) dissipation of compressive waves formed by mode conversion from themore » initial population of Alfvén waves. We found that when a large percentage (>99%) of the Alfvén waves undergo this conversion, heating is greatly concentrated at the footpoints and stable “down loops” are created. In some cases we found loops with three maxima that are also gravitationally stable. Models that agree with the tomographic temperature data exhibit higher gas pressures for “down loops” than for “up loops,” which is consistent with observations. These models also show a narrow range of Alfvén wave amplitudes: 3 to 6 km s{sup -1} at the coronal base. This is low in comparison to typical observed amplitudes of 20–30 km s{sup -1} in bright X-ray loops. However, the large-scale loops we model are believed to compose a weaker diffuse background that fills much of the volume of the corona. By constraining the physics of loops that underlie quiescent streamers, we hope to better understand the formation of the slow solar wind.« less

Variation in vulnerability to extreme-temperature-related mortality in Japan: A 40-year time-series analysis.

PubMed

Onozuka, Daisuke; Hagihara, Akihito

2015-07-01

Although the impact of extreme heat and cold on mortality has been documented in recent years, few studies have investigated whether variation in susceptibility to extreme temperatures has changed in Japan. We used data on daily total mortality and mean temperatures in Fukuoka, Japan, for 1973-2012. We used time-series analysis to assess the effects of extreme hot and low temperatures on all-cause mortality, stratified by decade, gender, and age, adjusting for time trends. We used a multivariate meta-analysis with a distributed lag non-linear model to estimate pooled non-linear lag-response relationships associated with extreme temperatures on mortality. The relative risk of mortality increased during heat extremes in all decades, with a declining trend over time. The mortality risk was higher during cold extremes for the entire study period, with a dispersed pattern across decades. Meta-analysis showed that both heat and cold extremes increased the risk of mortality. Cold effects were delayed and lasted for several days, whereas heat effects appeared quickly and did not last long. Our study provides quantitative evidence that extreme heat and low temperatures were significantly and non-linearly associated with the increased risk of mortality with substantial variation. Our results suggest that timely preventative measures are important for extreme high temperatures, whereas several days' protection should be provided for extreme low temperatures. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

North American extreme temperature events and related large scale meteorological patterns: A review of statistical methods, dynamics, modeling, and trends

DOE PAGES

Grotjahn, Richard; Black, Robert; Leung, Ruby; ...

2015-05-22

This paper reviews research approaches and open questions regarding data, statistical analyses, dynamics, modeling efforts, and trends in relation to temperature extremes. Our specific focus is upon extreme events of short duration (roughly less than 5 days) that affect parts of North America. These events are associated with large scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs). Methods used to define extreme events statistics and to identify and connect LSMPs to extreme temperatures are presented. Recent advances in statistical techniques can connect LSMPs to extreme temperatures through appropriately defined covariates that supplements more straightforward analyses. A wide array of LSMPs, ranging from synoptic tomore » planetary scale phenomena, have been implicated as contributors to extreme temperature events. Current knowledge about the physical nature of these contributions and the dynamical mechanisms leading to the implicated LSMPs is incomplete. There is a pressing need for (a) systematic study of the physics of LSMPs life cycles and (b) comprehensive model assessment of LSMP-extreme temperature event linkages and LSMP behavior. Generally, climate models capture the observed heat waves and cold air outbreaks with some fidelity. However they overestimate warm wave frequency and underestimate cold air outbreaks frequency, and underestimate the collective influence of low-frequency modes on temperature extremes. Climate models have been used to investigate past changes and project future trends in extreme temperatures. Overall, modeling studies have identified important mechanisms such as the effects of large-scale circulation anomalies and land-atmosphere interactions on changes in extreme temperatures. However, few studies have examined changes in LSMPs more specifically to understand the role of LSMPs on past and future extreme temperature changes. Even though LSMPs are resolvable by global and regional climate models, they are not necessarily well simulated so more research is needed to understand the limitations of climate models and improve model skill in simulating extreme temperatures and their associated LSMPs. Furthermore, the paper concludes with unresolved issues and research questions.« less

Soil and air temperatures for different habitats in Mount Rainier National Park.

Treesearch

Sarah E. Greene; Mark Klopsch

1985-01-01

This paper reports air and soil temperature data from 10 sites in Mount Rainier National Park in Washington State for 2- to 5-year periods. Data provided are monthly summaries for day and night mean air temperatures, mean minimum and maximum air temperatures, absolute minimum and maximum air temperatures, range of air temperatures, mean soil temperature, and absolute...

Simulation of hydrodynamics, temperature, and dissolved oxygen in Table Rock Lake, Missouri, 1996-1997

USGS Publications Warehouse

Green, W. Reed; Galloway, Joel M.; Richards, Joseph M.; Wesolowski, Edwin A.

2003-01-01

Outflow from Table Rock Lake and other White River reservoirs support a cold-water trout fishery of substantial economic yield in south-central Missouri and north-central Arkansas. The Missouri Department of Conservation has requested an increase in existing minimum flows through the Table Rock Lake Dam from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to increase the quality of fishable waters downstream in Lake Taneycomo. Information is needed to assess the effect of increased minimum flows on temperature and dissolved- oxygen concentrations of reservoir water and the outflow. A two-dimensional, laterally averaged, hydrodynamic, temperature, and dissolved-oxygen model, CE-QUAL-W2, was developed and calibrated for Table Rock Lake, located in Missouri, north of the Arkansas-Missouri State line. The model simulates water-surface elevation, heat transport, and dissolved-oxygen dynamics. The model was developed to assess the effects of proposed increases in minimum flow from about 4.4 cubic meters per second (the existing minimum flow) to 11.3 cubic meters per second (the increased minimum flow). Simulations included assessing the effect of (1) increased minimum flows and (2) increased minimum flows with increased water-surface elevations in Table Rock Lake, on outflow temperatures and dissolved-oxygen concentrations. In both minimum flow scenarios, water temperature appeared to stay the same or increase slightly (less than 0.37 ?C) and dissolved oxygen appeared to decrease slightly (less than 0.78 mg/L) in the outflow during the thermal stratification season. However, differences between the minimum flow scenarios for water temperature and dissolved- oxygen concentration and the calibrated model were similar to the differences between measured and simulated water-column profile values.

A comparison of climatological observing windows and their impact on detecting daily temperature extrema

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Žaknić-Ćatović, Ana; Gough, William A.

2018-04-01

Climatological observing window (COW) is defined as a time frame over which continuous or extreme air temperature measurements are collected. A 24-h time interval, ending at 00UTC or shifted to end at 06UTC, has been associated with difficulties in characterizing daily temperature extrema. A fixed 24-h COW used to obtain the temperature minima leads to potential misidentification due to fragmentation of "nighttime" into two subsequent nighttime periods due to the time discretization interval. The correct identification of air temperature extrema is achievable using a COW that identifies daily minimum over a single nighttime period and maximum over a single daytime period, as determined by sunrise and sunset. Due to a common absence of hourly air temperature observations, the accuracy of the mean temperature estimation is dependent on the accuracy of determination of diurnal air temperature extrema. Qualitative and quantitative criteria were used to examine the impact of the COW on detecting daily air temperature extrema. The timing of the 24-h observing window occasionally affects the determination of daily extrema through a mischaracterization of the diurnal minima and by extension can lead to errors in determining daily mean temperature. Hourly air temperature data for the time period from year 1987 to 2014, obtained from Toronto Buttonville Municipal Airport weather station, were used in analysis of COW impacts on detection of daily temperature extrema and calculation of annual temperature averages based on such extrema.

The global surface temperatures of the Moon as measured by the Diviner Lunar Radiometer Experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, J.-P.; Paige, D. A.; Greenhagen, B. T.; Sefton-Nash, E.

2017-02-01

The Diviner Lunar Radiometer Experiment onboard the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) has been acquiring solar reflectance and mid-infrared radiance measurements nearly continuously since July of 2009. Diviner is providing the most comprehensive view of how regoliths on airless bodies store and exchange thermal energy with the space environment. Approximately a quarter trillion calibrated radiance measurements of the Moon, acquired over 5.5 years by Diviner, have been compiled into a 0.5° resolution global dataset with a 0.25 h local time resolution. Maps generated with this dataset provide a global perspective of the surface energy balance of the Moon and reveal the complex and extreme nature of the lunar surface thermal environment. Our achievable map resolution, both spatially and temporally, will continue to improve with further data acquisition. Daytime maximum temperatures are sensitive to the albedo of the surface and are ∼387-397 K at the equator, dropping to ∼95 K just before sunrise, though anomalously warm areas characterized by high rock abundances can be > 50 K warmer than the zonal average nighttime temperatures. An asymmetry is observed between the morning and afternoon temperatures due to the thermal inertia of the lunar regolith with the dusk terminator ∼30 K warmer than the dawn terminator at the equator. An increase in albedo with incidence angle is required to explain the observed decrease in temperatures with latitude. At incidence angles exceeding ∼40°, topography and surface roughness influence temperatures resulting in increasing scatter in temperatures and anisothermality between Diviner channels. Nighttime temperatures are sensitive to the thermophysical properties of the regolith. High thermal inertia (TI) materials such as large rocks, remain warmer during the long lunar night and result in anomalously warm nighttime temperatures and anisothermality in the Diviner channels. Anomalous maximum and minimum temperatures are highlighted by subtracting the zonal mean temperatures from maps. Terrains can be characterized as low or high reflectance and low or high TI. Low maximum temperatures result from high reflectance surfaces while low minimum temperatures from low-TI material. Conversely, high maximum temperatures result from dark surface, and high minimum temperatures from high-TI materials. Impact craters are found to modify regolith properties over large distances. The thermal signature of Tycho is asymmetric, consistent with an oblique impact coming from the west. Some prominent crater rays are visible in the thermal data and require material with a higher thermal inertial than nominal regolith. The influence of the formation of the Orientale basin on the regolith properties is observable over a substantial portion of the western hemisphere despite its age (∼3.8 Gyr), and may have contributed to mixing of highland and mare material on the southwest margin of Oceanus Procellarum where the gradient in radiative properties at the mare-highland contact is broad (∼200 km).

Ionospheric reaction on sudden stratospheric warming events in Russiás Asia region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Polyakova, Anna; Perevalova, Natalya; Chernigovskaya, Marina

2015-12-01

The response of the ionosphere to sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) in the Asian region of Russia is studied. Two SSW events observed in 2008-2009 and 2012-2013 winter periods of extreme solar minimum and moderate solar maximum are considered. To detect the ionospheric effects caused by SSWs, we carried out a joint analysis of global ionospheric maps (GIM) of the total electron content (TEC), MLS (Microwave Limb Sounder, EOS Aura) measurements of temperature vertical profiles, as well as NCEP/NCAR and UKMO Reanalysis data. For the first time, it was found that during strong SSWs, in the mid-latitude ionosphere the amplitude of diurnal TEC variation decreases nearly half compared to quiet days. At the same time, the intensity of TEC deviations from the background level increases. It was also found that at SSW peak the midday TEC maximum decreases, and night/morning TEC values increase compared to quiet days. It was shown that during SSWs, TEC dynamics was identical for different geophysical conditions.The response of the ionosphere to sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) in the Asian region of Russia is studied. Two SSW events observed in 2008-2009 and 2012-2013 winter periods of extreme solar minimum and moderate solar maximum are considered. To detect the ionospheric effects caused by SSWs, we carried out a joint analysis of global ionospheric maps (GIM) of the total electron content (TEC), MLS (Microwave Limb Sounder, EOS Aura) measurements of temperature vertical profiles, as well as NCEP/NCAR and UKMO Reanalysis data. For the first time, it was found that during strong SSWs, in the mid-latitude ionosphere the amplitude of diurnal TEC variation decreases nearly half compared to quiet days. At the same time, the intensity of TEC deviations from the background level increases. It was also found that at SSW peak the midday TEC maximum decreases, and night/morning TEC values increase compared to quiet days. It was shown that during SSWs, TEC dynamics was identical for different geophysical conditions.

Adverse Climatic Conditions and Impact on Construction Scheduling and Cost

DTIC Science & Technology

1988-01-01

ABBREVIATIONS ABS MAX MAX TEMP ...... Absolute maximum maximum temperature ABS MIN MIN TEMP ...... Absolute minimum minimum temperature BTU...o Degrees Farenheit MEAN MAX TEMP o.................... Mean maximum temperature MEAN MIN TEMP...temperatures available, a determination had to be made as to whether forecasts were based on absolute , mean, or statistically derived temperatures

Extreme temperatures and out-of-hospital coronary deaths in six large Chinese cities.

PubMed

Chen, Renjie; Li, Tiantian; Cai, Jing; Yan, Meilin; Zhao, Zhuohui; Kan, Haidong

2014-12-01

The seasonal trend of out-of-hospital coronary death (OHCD) and sudden cardiac death has been observed, but whether extreme temperature serves as a risk factor is rarely investigated. We therefore aimed to evaluate the impact of extreme temperatures on OHCDs in China. We obtained death records of 126,925 OHCDs from six large Chinese cities (Harbin, Beijing, Tianjin, Nanjing, Shanghai and Guangzhou) during the period 2009-2011. The short-term associations between extreme temperature and OHCDs were analysed with time-series methods in each city, using generalised additive Poisson regression models. We specified distributed lag non-linear models in studying the delayed effects of extreme temperature. We then applied Bayesian hierarchical models to combine the city-specific effect estimates. The associations between extreme temperature and OHCDs were almost U-shaped or J-shaped. The pooled relative risks (RRs) of extreme cold temperatures over the lags 0-14 days comparing the 1st and 25th centile temperatures were 1.49 (95% posterior interval (PI) 1.26-1.76); the pooled RRs of extreme hot temperatures comparing the 99th and 75th centile temperatures were 1.53 (95% PI 1.27-1.84) for OHCDs. The RRs of extreme temperature on OHCD were higher if the patients with coronary heart disease were old, male and less educated. This multicity epidemiological study suggested that both extreme cold and hot temperatures posed significant risks on OHCDs, and might have important public health implications for the prevention of OHCD or sudden cardiac death. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Increasing Patient Safety by Closing the Sterile Production Gap-Part 1. Introduction.

PubMed

Agalloco, James P

2017-01-01

Terminal sterilization is considered the preferred means for the production of sterile drug products because it affords enhanced safety for the patient as the formulation is filled into its final container, sealed, and sterilized. Despite the obvious patient benefits, the use of terminal sterilization is artificially constrained by unreasonable expectations for the minimum time-temperature process to be used. The core misunderstanding with terminal sterilization is a fixation that destruction of a high population of a resistant biological indicator is required. The origin of this misconception is unclear, but it has resulted in sterilization conditions that are extremely harsh (15 min at 121 °C, of F 0 > 8 min), which limit the use of terminal sterilization to extremely heat-stable formulations. These articles outline the artificial nature of the process constraints and describe a scientifically sound means to expand the use of terminal sterilization by identifying the correct process goal-destruction of the bioburden present in the container prior to sterilization. Recognition that the true intention is bioburden destruction in routine products allows for the use of reduced conditions (lower temperatures, shorter process dwell, or both) without added patient risk. By focusing attention on the correct process target, lower time-temperature conditions can be used to expand the use of terminal sterilization to products unable to withstand the harsh conditions that have been mistakenly applied. The first article provides the background and describes the benefits to patient, producer, and regulator. The second article includes validation and operational advice that can be used in the implementation. LAY ABSTRACT: Terminal sterilization is considered the preferred means for the production of sterile drug products because it affords enhanced safety for the patient as the formulation is filled into its final container, sealed, and sterilized. Despite the obvious patient benefits, the use of terminal sterilization is artificially constrained by unreasonable expectations for the minimum time-temperature process to be used. These articles outline the artificial nature of the process constraints and describe a scientifically sound means to expand the use of terminal sterilization by identifying the correct process goal-destruction of the bioburden present in the container prior to sterilization. By focusing attention on the correct process target, lower time-temperature conditions can be used to expand the use of terminal sterilization to products unable to withstand the harsh conditions that have been mistakenly applied. The first article provides the background, and describes the benefits to patient, producer, and regulator. The second article includes validation and operational advice that can be used in the implementation. © PDA, Inc. 2017.

Estimation of Surface Air Temperature from MODIS 1km Resolution Land Surface Temperature Over Northern China

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shen, Suhung; Leptoukh, Gregory G.; Gerasimov, Irina

2010-01-01

Surface air temperature is a critical variable to describe the energy and water cycle of the Earth-atmosphere system and is a key input element for hydrology and land surface models. It is a very important variable in agricultural applications and climate change studies. This is a preliminary study to examine statistical relationships between ground meteorological station measured surface daily maximum/minimum air temperature and satellite remotely sensed land surface temperature from MODIS over the dry and semiarid regions of northern China. Studies were conducted for both MODIS-Terra and MODIS-Aqua by using year 2009 data. Results indicate that the relationships between surface air temperature and remotely sensed land surface temperature are statistically significant. The relationships between the maximum air temperature and daytime land surface temperature depends significantly on land surface types and vegetation index, but the minimum air temperature and nighttime land surface temperature has little dependence on the surface conditions. Based on linear regression relationship between surface air temperature and MODIS land surface temperature, surface maximum and minimum air temperatures are estimated from 1km MODIS land surface temperature under clear sky conditions. The statistical errors (sigma) of the estimated daily maximum (minimum) air temperature is about 3.8 C(3.7 C).

Anisotropic ion heating and BBELF waves within the low-altitude ion upflow region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, Y.; Knudsen, D. J.; Burchill, J. K.; James, H. G.; Miles, D. M.

2016-12-01

Previous studies have shown that low-energy (<10 eV) ion upflow energization processes involve multiple steps. At the initial stage, contributions from transverse-to-B ion heating by wave-particle interaction (WPI) are often underestimated. The wave-generation mechanisms, the specific wave modes leading to the ion heating, and the minimum altitude where WPI takes place remain unresolved. With this in mind, we statistically investigate the relation between anisotropic ion temperature enhancements and broadband extremely low frequency (BBELF) wave emissions within the ion upflow region using data from the Suprathermal Electron imager (SEI), the Fluxgate Magnetometer (MGF), and the Radio Receiver Instrument (RRI) onboard the e-POP satellite. Initial results demonstrate that perpendicular-to-B ion temperatures can reach up to 4.3 eV in approximately 1 km wide spatial region near 410 km altitude inside an active auroral surge. Intense small-scale field-aligned currents (FACs) as well as strong BBELF wave emissions, comprising electromagnetic waves below 80 Hz and electrostatic waves above, accompany these ion heating events. The minimum altitude of potential WPI reported here is lower than as previously suggested as 520 km by Frederick-Frost et al. 2007. We measure polarization and power spectral density for specific wave modes to explore the nature of ion heating within the BBELF waves. Acknowledgement: This research is supported by an Eyes High Doctoral Recruitment Scholarship at University of Calgary.

Analysis of temperature trends in Northern Serbia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tosic, Ivana; Gavrilov, Milivoj; Unkašević, Miroslava; Marković, Slobodan; Petrović, Predrag

2017-04-01

An analysis of air temperature trends in Northern Serbia for the annual and seasonal time series is performed for two periods: 1949-2013 and 1979-2013. Three data sets of surface air temperatures: monthly mean temperatures, monthly maximum temperatures, and monthly minimum temperatures are analyzed at 9 stations that have altitudes varying between 75 m and 102 m. Monthly mean temperatures are obtained as the average of the daily mean temperatures, while monthly maximum (minimum) temperatures are the maximum (minimum) values of daily temperatures in corresponding month. Positive trends were found in 29 out of 30 time series, and the negative trend was found only in winter during the period 1979-2013. Applying the Mann-Kendall test, significant positive trends were found in 15 series; 7 in the period 1949-2013 and 8 in the period 1979-2013; and no significant trend was found in 15 series. Significant positive trends are dominated during the year, spring, and summer, where it was found in 14 out of 18 cases. Significant positive trends were found 7, 5, and 3 times in mean, maximum and minimum temperatures, respectively. It was found that the positive temperature trends are dominant in Northern Serbia.

Modeling the effects of climate on date palm scale ( Parlatoria blanchardi) population dynamics during different phenological stages of life history under hot arid conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Idder-Ighili, Hakima; Idder, Mohamed Azzedine; Doumandji-Mitiche, Bahia; Chenchouni, Haroun

2015-10-01

The date palm scale (DPS) Parlatoria blanchardi is a serious pest due to the damage it inflicts on its host tree ( Phoenix dactylifera). To develop an effective control against DPS in arid regions, it is essential to know its bio-ecology including population dynamics and climatic factors influencing the duration and timing of life history and also the densities of different phenological stages (crawlers, first and second instars nymphs, adult males, and adult females). Monitoring of biological cycle and population dynamics of the pest were achieved through weekly counts of DPS densities on leaflets sampled at different position of date palm trees in an oasis of Ouargla region (Algerian Sahara Desert). Within this hyper-arid region, DPS established four generations per year, the most important was the spring generation. Two overlapping generations occurred in spring-early summer and two in autumn-early winter; these two pairs of generations were interspersed by two phases of high-mortality rates, the first corresponds to winter cold and the second refers to the extreme heat of summer. Statistical analysis of the effects of the studied climatic conditions (minimum, maximum and mean temperatures, precipitation, humidity, wind, rain days, and climatic indices) on the DPS densities at different phenological stages showed great variability from one stage to another. Among these, adult females were the most affected by climate factors. For the total DPS population, high values of minimum temperatures negatively affected population density, while high maximum temperatures, hygrometry, and De Martonne aridity index showed a positive influence.

Modeling the effects of climate on date palm scale (Parlatoria blanchardi) population dynamics during different phenological stages of life history under hot arid conditions.

PubMed

Idder-Ighili, Hakima; Idder, Mohamed Azzedine; Doumandji-Mitiche, Bahia; Chenchouni, Haroun

2015-10-01

The date palm scale (DPS) Parlatoria blanchardi is a serious pest due to the damage it inflicts on its host tree (Phoenix dactylifera). To develop an effective control against DPS in arid regions, it is essential to know its bio-ecology including population dynamics and climatic factors influencing the duration and timing of life history and also the densities of different phenological stages (crawlers, first and second instars nymphs, adult males, and adult females). Monitoring of biological cycle and population dynamics of the pest were achieved through weekly counts of DPS densities on leaflets sampled at different position of date palm trees in an oasis of Ouargla region (Algerian Sahara Desert). Within this hyper-arid region, DPS established four generations per year, the most important was the spring generation. Two overlapping generations occurred in spring-early summer and two in autumn-early winter; these two pairs of generations were interspersed by two phases of high-mortality rates, the first corresponds to winter cold and the second refers to the extreme heat of summer. Statistical analysis of the effects of the studied climatic conditions (minimum, maximum and mean temperatures, precipitation, humidity, wind, rain days, and climatic indices) on the DPS densities at different phenological stages showed great variability from one stage to another. Among these, adult females were the most affected by climate factors. For the total DPS population, high values of minimum temperatures negatively affected population density, while high maximum temperatures, hygrometry, and De Martonne aridity index showed a positive influence.

Resistivity behavior of hydrogen and liquid silane at high shock compression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yi-Gao; Liu, Fu-Sheng; Liu, Qi-Jun

2018-07-01

To study the electrical properties of hydrogen rich compounds under extreme conditions, the electrical resistivity of density hydrogen and silane fluid was measured, respectively. The hydrogen sample was prepared by compressing pure hydrogen gas to 10 MPa in a coolant target system at the temperature of 77 K. The silane sample can be obtained with the same method. High-pressure and high-temperature experiments were performed using a two-stage light-gas gun. The electrical resistivity of the sample decreased with increasing pressure and temperature as expected. A minimum electrical resistivity value of 0.3 × 10-3 Ω cm at 138 GPa and 4100 K was obtained for silane. The minimum resistivity of hydrogen in the state of 102 GPa and 4300 K was 0.35 Ω cm. It showed that the measured electrical resistivity of the shock-compressed hydrogen was an order of magnitude higher than fluid silane at 50-90 GPa. However, beyond 100 GPa, the resistivity difference between silane and hydrogen was very minor. The carriers in the sample were hydrogen, and the concentration of hydrogen atoms in these two substances was close to each other. These results supported the theoretical prediction that silane was interpreted simply in terms of chemical decomposition into silicon nanoparticles and fluid hydrogen, and electrical conduction flows predominately dominated by the fluid hydrogen. In addition, the results also supported the theory of "chemical precompression", the existence of Sisbnd H bond helped to reduce the pressure of hydrogen metallization. These findings could lead the way for further metallic phases of hydrogen-rich materials and experimental studies.

Future Extreme Heat Scenarios to Enable the Assessment of Climate Impacts on Public Health over the Coterminous U.S

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quattrochi, D. A.; Crosson, W. L.; Al-Hamdan, M. Z.; Estes, M. G., Jr.

2013-12-01

In the United States, extreme heat is the most deadly weather-related hazard. In the face of a warming climate and urbanization, which contributes to local-scale urban heat islands, it is very likely that extreme heat events (EHEs) will become more common and more severe in the U.S. This research seeks to provide historical and future measures of climate-driven extreme heat events to enable assessments of the impacts of heat on public health over the coterminous U.S. We use atmospheric temperature and humidity information from meteorological reanalysis and from Global Climate Models (GCMs) to provide data on past and future heat events. The focus of research is on providing assessments of the magnitude, frequency and geographic distribution of extreme heat in the U.S. to facilitate public health studies. In our approach, long-term climate change is captured with GCM outputs, and the temporal and spatial characteristics of short-term extremes are represented by the reanalysis data. Two future time horizons for 2040 and 2090 are compared to the recent past period of 1981-2000. We characterize regional-scale temperature and humidity conditions using GCM outputs for two climate change scenarios (A2 and A1B) defined in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). For each future period, 20 years of multi-model GCM outputs are analyzed to develop a ';heat stress climatology' based on statistics of extreme heat indicators. Differences between the two future and the past period are used to define temperature and humidity changes on a monthly time scale and regional spatial scale. These changes are combined with the historical meteorological data, which is hourly and at a spatial scale (12 km) much finer than that of GCMs, to create future climate realizations. From these realizations, we compute the daily heat stress measures and related spatially-specific climatological fields, such as the mean annual number of days above certain thresholds of maximum and minimum air temperatures, heat indices, and a new heat stress variable developed as part of this research that gives an integrated measure of heat stress (and relief) over the course of a day. Comparisons are made between projected (2040 and 2090) and past (1990) heat stress statistics. Outputs are aggregated to the county level, which is a popular scale of analysis for public health interests. County-level statistics are made available to public health researchers by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) via the Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (WONDER) system. This addition of heat stress measures to CDC WONDER allows decision and policy makers to assess the impact of alternative approaches to optimize the public health response to EHEs. Through CDC WONDER, users are able to spatially and temporally query public health and heat-related data sets and create county-level maps and statistical charts of such data across the coterminous U.S.

Future Extreme Heat Scenarios to Enable the Assessment of Climate Impacts on Public Health over the Coterminous U.S.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Quattrochi, Dale A.; Crosson, William L.; Al-Hamdan, Mohammad Z.; Estes, Maurice G., Jr.

2013-01-01

In the United States, extreme heat is the most deadly weather-related hazard. In the face of a warming climate and urbanization, which contributes to local-scale urban heat islands, it is very likely that extreme heat events (EHEs) will become more common and more severe in the U.S. This research seeks to provide historical and future measures of climate-driven extreme heat events to enable assessments of the impacts of heat on public health over the coterminous U.S. We use atmospheric temperature and humidity information from meteorological reanalysis and from Global Climate Models (GCMs) to provide data on past and future heat events. The focus of research is on providing assessments of the magnitude, frequency and geographic distribution of extreme heat in the U.S. to facilitate public health studies. In our approach, long-term climate change is captured with GCM outputs, and the temporal and spatial characteristics of short-term extremes are represented by the reanalysis data. Two future time horizons for 2040 and 2090 are compared to the recent past period of 1981- 2000. We characterize regional-scale temperature and humidity conditions using GCM outputs for two climate change scenarios (A2 and A1B) defined in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). For each future period, 20 years of multi-model GCM outputs are analyzed to develop a 'heat stress climatology' based on statistics of extreme heat indicators. Differences between the two future and the past period are used to define temperature and humidity changes on a monthly time scale and regional spatial scale. These changes are combined with the historical meteorological data, which is hourly and at a spatial scale (12 km), to create future climate realizations. From these realizations, we compute the daily heat stress measures and related spatially-specific climatological fields, such as the mean annual number of days above certain thresholds of maximum and minimum air temperatures, heat indices and a new heat stress variable developed as part of this research that gives an integrated measure of heat stress (and relief) over the course of a day. Comparisons are made between projected (2040 and 2090) and past (1990) heat stress statistics. Outputs are aggregated to the county level, which is a popular scale of analysis for public health interests. County-level statistics are made available to public health researchers by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) via the Wideranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (WONDER) system. This addition of heat stress measures to CDC WONDER allows decision and policy makers to assess the impact of alternative approaches to optimize the public health response to EHEs. Through CDC WONDER, users are able to spatially and temporally query public health and heat-related data sets and create county-level maps and statistical charts of such data across the coterminous U.S

Investigation on Multiple Algorithms for Multi-Objective Optimization of Gear Box

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ananthapadmanabhan, R.; Babu, S. Arun; Hareendranath, KR; Krishnamohan, C.; Krishnapillai, S.; A, Krishnan

2016-09-01

The field of gear design is an extremely important area in engineering. In this work a spur gear reduction unit is considered. A review of relevant literatures in the area of gear design indicates that compact design of gearbox involves a complicated engineering analysis. This work deals with the simultaneous optimization of the power and dimensions of a gearbox, which are of conflicting nature. The focus is on developing a design space which is based on module, pinion teeth and face-width by using MATLAB. The feasible points are obtained through different multi-objective algorithms using various constraints obtained from different novel literatures. Attention has been devoted in various novel constraints like critical scoring criterion number, flash temperature, minimum film thickness, involute interference and contact ratio. The output from various algorithms like genetic algorithm, fmincon (constrained nonlinear minimization), NSGA-II etc. are compared to generate the best result. Hence, this is a much more precise approach for obtaining practical values of the module, pinion teeth and face-width for a minimum centre distance and a maximum power transmission for any given material.

Asymmetry of projected increases in extreme temperature distributions

PubMed Central

Kodra, Evan; Ganguly, Auroop R.

2014-01-01

A statistical analysis reveals projections of consistently larger increases in the highest percentiles of summer and winter temperature maxima and minima versus the respective lowest percentiles, resulting in a wider range of temperature extremes in the future. These asymmetric changes in tail distributions of temperature appear robust when explored through 14 CMIP5 climate models and three reanalysis datasets. Asymmetry of projected increases in temperature extremes generalizes widely. Magnitude of the projected asymmetry depends significantly on region, season, land-ocean contrast, and climate model variability as well as whether the extremes of consideration are seasonal minima or maxima events. An assessment of potential physical mechanisms provides support for asymmetric tail increases and hence wider temperature extremes ranges, especially for northern winter extremes. These results offer statistically grounded perspectives on projected changes in the IPCC-recommended extremes indices relevant for impacts and adaptation studies. PMID:25073751

The association of extreme temperatures and the incidence of tuberculosis in Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Onozuka, Daisuke; Hagihara, Akihito

2015-08-01

Seasonal variation in the incidence of tuberculosis (TB) has been widely assumed. However, few studies have investigated the association between extreme temperatures and the incidence of TB. We collected data on cases of TB and mean temperature in Fukuoka, Japan for 2008-2012 and used time-series analyses to assess the possible relationship of extreme temperatures with TB incident cases, adjusting for seasonal and interannual variation. Our analysis revealed that the occurrence of extreme heat temperature events resulted in a significant increase in the number of TB cases (relative risk (RR) 1.20, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 1.01-1.43). We also found that the occurrence of extreme cold temperature events resulted in a significant increase in the number of TB cases (RR 1.23, 95 % CI 1.05-1.45). Sex and age did not modify the effect of either heat or cold extremes. Our study provides quantitative evidence that the number of TB cases increased significantly with extreme heat and cold temperatures. The results may help public health officials predict extreme temperature-related TB incidence and prepare for the implementation of preventive public health interventions.

Resistant starch: Variation among high amylose rice varieties and its relationship with apparent amylose content, pasting properties and cooking methods.

PubMed

Chen, Ming-Hsuan; Bergman, Christine J; McClung, Anna M; Everette, Jace D; Tabien, Rodante E

2017-11-01

Resistant starch (RS), which is not hydrolyzed in the small intestine, has proposed health benefits. We evaluated 40 high amylose rice varieties for RS content in cooked rice and a 1.9-fold difference was found. Some varieties had more than two-fold greater RS content than a US long-grain intermediate-amylose rice. The high amylose varieties were grouped into four classes according to paste viscosity and gelatinization temperature based on genetic variants of the Waxy and Starch Synthase IIa genes, respectively. RS content was not different between the four paste viscosity-gelatinization temperature classes. Multiple linear regression analysis showed that apparent amylose content and pasting temperature were strong predictors of RS within each class. Two cooking methods, fixed water-to-rice ratio/time and in excess-water/minimum-cook-time, were compared using six rice varieties that were extremes in RS in each of the genetic variant classes, no difference in RS content due to cooking method was observed. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

The range of medication storage temperatures in aeromedical emergency medical services.

PubMed

Madden, J F; O'Connor, R E; Evans, J

1999-01-01

The United States Pharmacopoeia (USP) recommends that medication storage temperatures should be maintained between 15 degrees C and 30 degrees C (59 degrees F to 86 degrees F). Concerns have been raised that storage temperatures in EMS may deviate from this optimal range, predisposing drugs to degradation. This study was conducted to determine whether temperatures inside the drug box carried by paramedics aboard a helicopter remained within the range. The Aviation Section, with a paramedic on board, utilizes two helicopters and conducts approximately 80 patient care flights per month. A dual-display indoor/outdoor thermometer with memory was used to measure the highest and lowest temperatures during each shift. The thermometer was kept with medications in a nylon drug bag, which remained on the helicopter except when needed for patient care. Ambient temperature measurements at the location of the helicopter base were obtained from the National Climatic Data Center. Temperature ranges were recorded during day shift (8 AM to 4 PM) and night shift (4 PM to 12 AM) during the winter from December 1, 1995, to March 13, 1996, and summer from June 17, 1996, to September 14, 1996. Statistical analysis was performed using chi-square and the Bonferroni-adjusted t-test. Compared with the winter day period, the winter night period had lower minimum (13.2 degrees C vs 14.7 degrees C, p = 0.003) and maximum (20.3 degrees C vs 21.2 degrees C, p = 0.02) temperatures. Both were below the USP minimum. The summer day period had higher maximum temperatures than the summer night period (31.2 degrees C vs 27.6 degrees C, p = 5 x 10(-9)). The mean daytime summer maximum exceeded the USP upper limit. Storage temperatures outside of the USP range were observed during 49% of winter days, 62% of winter nights, 56% of summer days, and 27% of summer nights. There was a significant tendency for summer days (p = 8 x 10(-8)) and winter nights (p = 0.009) to be outside of the acceptable range. There was moderate correlation between ambient and drug box temperatures (r2 = 0.49). Medications stored aboard an EMS helicopter are exposed to extremes of temperature, even inside a drug bag. Measures are needed to attenuate storage temperature fluctuations aboard aeromedical helicopters.

Empirical downscaling of daily minimum air temperature at very fine resolutions in complex terrain

Treesearch

Zachary A. Holden; John T. Abatzoglou; Charles H. Luce; L. Scott Baggett

2011-01-01

Available air temperature models do not adequately account for the influence of terrain on nocturnal air temperatures. An empirical model for night time air temperatures was developed using a network of one hundred and forty inexpensive temperature sensors deployed across the Bitterroot National Forest, Montana. A principle component analysis (PCA) on minimum...

Meteorological influence on the occurrence of gastric dilatation-volvulus in military working dogs in Texas.

PubMed

Moore, George E; Levine, Michael; Anderson, Johnna D; Trapp, Robert J

2008-01-01

Gastric dilatation-volvulus (GDV) is a life-threatening condition in dogs and other species in which the stomach dilates and rotates on itself. The etiology of the disease is multi-factorial, but explicit precipitating causes are unknown. This study sought to determine if there was a significant association between changes in hourly-measured temperature and/or atmospheric pressure and the occurrence of GDV in the population of high-risk working dogs in Texas. The odds of a day being a GDV day, given certain temperature and atmospheric pressure conditions for that day or the day before, was estimated using logistic regression models. There were 57 days in which GDV(s) occurred, representing 2.60% of the days in the 6-year study period. The months of November, December, and January collectively accounted for almost half (47%) of all cases. Disease risk was negatively associated with daily maximum temperature. An increased risk of GDV was weakly associated with the occurrence of large hourly drops in temperature that day and of higher minimum barometric pressure that day and the day before GDV occurrence, but extreme changes were not predictive of the disease.

Meteorological influence on the occurrence of gastric dilatation-volvulus in military working dogs in Texas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, George E.; Levine, Michael; Anderson, Johnna D.; Trapp, Robert J.

2008-01-01

Gastric dilatation-volvulus (GDV) is a life-threatening condition in dogs and other species in which the stomach dilates and rotates on itself. The etiology of the disease is multi-factorial, but explicit precipitating causes are unknown. This study sought to determine if there was a significant association between changes in hourly-measured temperature and/or atmospheric pressure and the occurrence of GDV in the population of high-risk working dogs in Texas. The odds of a day being a GDV day, given certain temperature and atmospheric pressure conditions for that day or the day before, was estimated using logistic regression models. There were 57 days in which GDV(s) occurred, representing 2.60% of the days in the 6-year study period. The months of November, December, and January collectively accounted for almost half (47%) of all cases. Disease risk was negatively associated with daily maximum temperature. An increased risk of GDV was weakly associated with the occurrence of large hourly drops in temperature that day and of higher minimum barometric pressure that day and the day before GDV occurrence, but extreme changes were not predictive of the disease.

Static and Dynamic Measurement of Ocular Surface Temperature in Dry Eyes

PubMed Central

Sanjay, Srinivasan; Morgan, Philip B.

2016-01-01

Purpose. To study ocular surface temperature (OST) in dry eyes by static and dynamic measures. Methods. OST was recorded on 62 dry eyes and 63 age- and sex-matched controls. Static measures were study of absolute OST at t = 0, 5, and 10 s after eye opening. Dynamic measures were study of mean change and net change in OST over 10 s of sustained eye opening. Ten OST indices studied were temperatures of the geometric center of the cornea (GCC), extreme temporal (T1) and nasal conjunctiva (T4), midtemporal (CT) and nasal conjunctiva (CN), temporal (LT) and nasal (LN) limbus, and mean (MOST), maximum (Max T), and minimum (Min T) temperatures of the region of interest. Results. For static measures, dry eyes recorded significantly lower GCC, MOST, Min T, Max T, T4, CT, LT, LN, and CN. For dynamic measures, dry eyes had significantly steeper regression line of mean change (corresponding to greater net change) for Max T 5 s onward and T4 at 3 s onward. Conclusions. Both static and dynamic measures of the OST were valuable and can be used as clinical tool to assess dry eye. PMID:27433352

NUCLEAR REACTOR

DOEpatents

Grebe, J.J.

1959-07-14

High temperature reactors which are uniquely adapted to serve as the heat source for nuclear pcwered rockets are described. The reactor is comprised essentially of an outer tubular heat resistant casing which provides the main coolant passageway to and away from the reactor core within the casing and in which the working fluid is preferably hydrogen or helium gas which is permitted to vaporize from a liquid storage tank. The reactor core has a generally spherical shape formed entirely of an active material comprised of fissile material and a moderator material which serves as a diluent. The active material is fabricated as a gas permeable porous material and is interlaced in a random manner with very small inter-connecting bores or capillary tubes through which the coolant gas may flow. The entire reactor is divided into successive sections along the direction of the temperature gradient or coolant flow, each section utilizing materials of construction which are most advantageous from a nuclear standpoint and which at the same time can withstand the operating temperature of that particular zone. This design results in a nuclear reactor characterized simultaneously by a minimum critiral size and mass and by the ability to heat a working fluid to an extremely high temperature.

Reliability Assessment of Advanced Flip-clip Interconnect Electronic Package Assemblies under Extreme Cold Temperatures (-190 and -120 C)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ramesham, Rajeshuni; Ghaffarian, Reza; Shapiro, Andrew; Napala, Phil A.; Martin, Patrick A.

2005-01-01

Flip-chip interconnect electronic package boards have been assembled, underfilled, non-destructively evaluated and subsequently subjected to extreme temperature thermal cycling to assess the reliability of this advanced packaging interconnect technology for future deep space, long-term, extreme temperature missions. In this very preliminary study, the employed temperature range covers military specifications (-55 C to 100 C), extreme cold Martian (-120 C to 115 C) and asteroid Nereus (-180 C to 25 C) environments. The resistance of daisy-chained, flip-chip interconnects were measured at room temperature and at various intervals as a function of extreme temperature thermal cycling. Electrical resistance measurements are reported and the tests to date have not shown significant change in resistance as a function of extreme temperature thermal cycling. However, the change in interconnect resistance becomes more noticeable with increasing number of thermal cycles. Further research work has been carried out to understand the reliability of flip-chip interconnect packages under extreme temperature applications (-190 C to 85 C) via continuously monitoring the daisy chain resistance. Adaptation of suitable diagnostic techniques to identify the failure mechanisms is in progress. This presentation will describe the experimental test results of flip-chip testing under extreme temperatures.

Potential Impacts of Future Warming and Land Use Changes on Intra-Urban Heat Exposure in Houston, Texas

PubMed Central

Conlon, Kathryn; Monaghan, Andrew; Hayden, Mary; Wilhelmi, Olga

2016-01-01

Extreme heat events in the United States are projected to become more frequent and intense as a result of climate change. We investigated the individual and combined effects of land use and warming on the spatial and temporal distribution of daily minimum temperature (Tmin) and daily maximum heat index (HImax) during summer in Houston, Texas. Present-day (2010) and near-future (2040) parcel-level land use scenarios were embedded within 1-km resolution land surface model (LSM) simulations. For each land use scenario, LSM simulations were conducted for climatic scenarios representative of both the present-day and near-future periods. LSM simulations assuming present-day climate but 2040 land use patterns led to spatially heterogeneous temperature changes characterized by warmer conditions over most areas, with summer average increases of up to 1.5°C (Tmin) and 7.3°C (HImax) in some newly developed suburban areas compared to simulations using 2010 land use patterns. LSM simulations assuming present-day land use but a 1°C temperature increase above the urban canopy (consistent with warming projections for 2040) yielded more spatially homogeneous metropolitan-wide average increases of about 1°C (Tmin) and 2.5°C (HImax), respectively. LSM simulations assuming both land use and warming for 2040 led to summer average increases of up to 2.5°C (Tmin) and 8.3°C (HImax), with the largest increases in areas projected to be converted to residential, industrial and mixed-use types. Our results suggest that urbanization and climate change may significantly increase the average number of summer days that exceed current threshold temperatures for initiating a heat advisory for metropolitan Houston, potentially increasing population exposure to extreme heat. PMID:26863298

Experimental investigations of the minimum ignition energy and the minimum ignition temperature of inert and combustible dust cloud mixtures.

PubMed

Addai, Emmanuel Kwasi; Gabel, Dieter; Krause, Ulrich

2016-04-15

The risks associated with dust explosions still exist in industries that either process or handle combustible dust. This explosion risk could be prevented or mitigated by applying the principle of inherent safety (moderation). This is achieved by adding an inert material to a highly combustible material in order to decrease the ignition sensitivity of the combustible dust. The presented paper deals with the experimental investigation of the influence of adding an inert dust on the minimum ignition energy and the minimum ignition temperature of the combustible/inert dust mixtures. The experimental investigation was done in two laboratory scale equipment: the Hartmann apparatus and the Godbert-Greenwald furnace for the minimum ignition energy and the minimum ignition temperature test respectively. This was achieved by mixing various amounts of three inert materials (magnesium oxide, ammonium sulphate and sand) and six combustible dusts (brown coal, lycopodium, toner, niacin, corn starch and high density polyethylene). Generally, increasing the inert materials concentration increases the minimum ignition energy as well as the minimum ignition temperatures until a threshold is reached where no ignition was obtained. The permissible range for the inert mixture to minimize the ignition risk lies between 60 to 80%. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Changes in Hydrological Extremes and its Relation to Climate Variability in Mountainous Watershed: A Case Study from Gandaki River Basin, Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shrestha, N. S.; Dahal, P.

2016-12-01

Changes in the hydrological extreme are expected due to climate variability and are needed to assess at local and regional scales since these changes are not uniform over the globe. This study analyses the changes in intensity, frequency and persistence hydrological extreme in Gandaki River Basin (GRB) Nepal over past and future and its relation to climate variability. Hydrological data of 12 different hydrological stations covering all the sub basins of Gandaki River Basin were analyzed. At least 1 hydrological station in each sub basin to the maximum of 3 was taken into consideration for this study. Results show that hydrological extreme have increased in intensity, frequency and persistence over recent year and are predicted to increase in future (2030-2060). The time-series analysis revealed an increase in the magnitude, frequency and duration of flood and drought. The instantaneous maximum flow, flood events and duration of flood events are found to have increasing trend. The minimum discharge was observed to be decreasing which entails that the water availability in the driest time is decreasing. Trend analysis of seasonal flow revealed an increase in monsoon flows and decreasing in post monsoon. Changes in climate variability over the same period shows higher anomalies in both temperature and precipitation in recent decades (1990s and 2000s) compared to the baseline period (1970-2000). Model suggests an increasing trend in annual flows with the increase more pronounced in 2060s. Significant increase in extreme flows and subsequent decrease in dependable flows suggest increase in frequency of isolated extreme flows followed by prolonged dry spells. Data also showed that the mean temperature will be increasing from 1.9 0C to 3.1 0C and precipitation will be changing by -8% to +12% in 2031-2060 compared to the baseline period. For long-term planning and management of water resources, current trend and future change in the pattern of water availability should be analysed well in advance. Climate change with intensifying extreme events will likely have serious consequences on the hydrological changes. Therefore, this study would be useful in understanding how the hydrological regime has been changing with climate change in mountainous watershed.

Extreme values and the level-crossing problem: An application to the Feller process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masoliver, Jaume

2014-04-01

We review the question of the extreme values attained by a random process. We relate it to level crossings to one boundary (first-passage problems) as well as to two boundaries (escape problems). The extremes studied are the maximum, the minimum, the maximum absolute value, and the range or span. We specialize in diffusion processes and present detailed results for the Wiener and Feller processes.

Accuracy evaluation of ClimGen weather generator and daily to hourly disaggregation methods in tropical conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Safeeq, Mohammad; Fares, Ali

2011-12-01

Daily and sub-daily weather data are often required for hydrological and environmental modeling. Various weather generator programs have been used to generate synthetic climate data where observed climate data are limited. In this study, a weather data generator, ClimGen, was evaluated for generating information on daily precipitation, temperature, and wind speed at four tropical watersheds located in Hawai`i, USA. We also evaluated different daily to sub-daily weather data disaggregation methods for precipitation, air temperature, dew point temperature, and wind speed at Mākaha watershed. The hydrologic significance values of the different disaggregation methods were evaluated using Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model. MuDRain and diurnal method performed well over uniform distribution in disaggregating daily precipitation. However, the diurnal method is more consistent if accurate estimates of hourly precipitation intensities are desired. All of the air temperature disaggregation methods performed reasonably well, but goodness-of-fit statistics were slightly better for sine curve model with 2 h lag. Cosine model performed better than random model in disaggregating daily wind speed. The largest differences in annual water balance were related to wind speed followed by precipitation and dew point temperature. Simulated hourly streamflow, evapotranspiration, and groundwater recharge were less sensitive to the method of disaggregating daily air temperature. ClimGen performed well in generating the minimum and maximum temperature and wind speed. However, for precipitation, it clearly underestimated the number of extreme rainfall events with an intensity of >100 mm/day in all four locations. ClimGen was unable to replicate the distribution of observed precipitation at three locations (Honolulu, Kahului, and Hilo). ClimGen was able to reproduce the distributions of observed minimum temperature at Kahului and wind speed at Kahului and Hilo. Although the weather data generation and disaggregation methods were concentrated in a few Hawaiian watersheds, the results presented can be used to similar mountainous location settings, as well as any specific locations aimed at furthering the site-specific performance evaluation of these tested models.

Climate Variability and Impact at NASA's Marshal Space Flight Center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smoot, James L.; Jedlovec, Gary; Williams, Brett

2013-01-01

Climate analysis for the Southeast U. S. has indicated that inland regions have experienced an average temperature increase of 2F since 1970. This trend is generally characterized by warmer winters with an indication of increased precipitation in the Fall season. Extended periods of limited rainfall in the Spring and Summer periods have had greater areal coverage and, at other times the number of precipitation events has been increasing. Climate model projections for the next 10-70 years indicate warmer temperatures for the Southeast U.S., particularly in the Spring and Summer, with some indication of more extremes in temperature and precipitation as shown in the table below. The realization of these types of regional climate changes in the form of extended heat waves and droughts and their subsequent stress on facilities, infrastructure, and workforce could have substantial impact on the activities and functions of NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) in Huntsville, Alabama. This presentation will present the results of an examination of the 100 year temperature and precipitation record for MSFC. Local warming has cause an increase in daily maximum and minimum temperatures by nearly 3F, with a substantial increase in the number of maximum temperatures exceeding 90F and a decrease in the number of days with minimum temperatures below freezing. These trends have substantial impact of the number of heating / cooling degree days for the area. Yearly precipitation totals are inversely correlated with the change in mean temperature and the frequency of heavy rain events has remain consistent with the changes in yearly totals. An extended heat wave index was developed which shows an increase in frequency of heat waves over the last 35 years and a subsequent reduction in precipitation during the heat waves. This trend will contribute to more intense drought conditions over the northern Alabama region, increasing the potential of destructive wildfires in and around the Center. MSFC has begun using this climate change information to adapt short-term and long-term plans for Center operations.

Climate change, heat, and mortality in the tropical urban area of San Juan, Puerto Rico.

PubMed

Méndez-Lázaro, Pablo A; Pérez-Cardona, Cynthia M; Rodríguez, Ernesto; Martínez, Odalys; Taboas, Mariela; Bocanegra, Arelis; Méndez-Tejeda, Rafael

2018-05-01

Extreme heat episodes are becoming more common worldwide, including in tropical areas of Australia, India, and Puerto Rico. Higher frequency, duration, and intensity of extreme heat episodes are triggering public health issues in most mid-latitude and continental cities. With urbanization, land use and land cover have affected local climate directly and indirectly encouraging the Urban Heat Island effect with potential impacts on heat-related morbidity and mortality among urban populations. However, this association is not completely understood in tropical islands such as Puerto Rico. The present study examines the effects of heat in two municipalities (San Juan and Bayamón) within the San Juan metropolitan area on overall and cause-specific mortality among the population between 2009 and 2013. The number of daily deaths attributed to selected causes (cardiovascular disease, hypertension, diabetes, stroke, chronic lower respiratory disease, pneumonia, and kidney disease) coded and classified according to the Tenth Revision of the International Classification of Diseases was analyzed. The relations between elevated air surface temperatures on cause-specific mortality were modeled. Separate Poisson regression models were fitted to explain the total number of deaths as a function of daily maximum and minimum temperatures, while adjusting for seasonal patterns. Results show a significant increase in the effect of high temperatures on mortality, during the summers of 2012 and 2013. Stroke (relative risk = 16.80, 95% CI 6.81-41.4) and cardiovascular diseases (relative risk = 16.63, 95% CI 10.47-26.42) were the primary causes of death most associated with elevated summer temperatures. Better understanding of how these heat events affect the health of the population will provide a useful tool for decision makers to address and mitigate the effects of the increasing temperatures on public health. The enhanced temperature forecast may be a crucial component in decision making during the National Weather Service Heat Watches, Advisories, and Warning process.

Climate change, heat, and mortality in the tropical urban area of San Juan, Puerto Rico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Méndez-Lázaro, Pablo A.; Pérez-Cardona, Cynthia M.; Rodríguez, Ernesto; Martínez, Odalys; Taboas, Mariela; Bocanegra, Arelis; Méndez-Tejeda, Rafael

2018-05-01

Extreme heat episodes are becoming more common worldwide, including in tropical areas of Australia, India, and Puerto Rico. Higher frequency, duration, and intensity of extreme heat episodes are triggering public health issues in most mid-latitude and continental cities. With urbanization, land use and land cover have affected local climate directly and indirectly encouraging the Urban Heat Island effect with potential impacts on heat-related morbidity and mortality among urban populations. However, this association is not completely understood in tropical islands such as Puerto Rico. The present study examines the effects of heat in two municipalities (San Juan and Bayamón) within the San Juan metropolitan area on overall and cause-specific mortality among the population between 2009 and 2013. The number of daily deaths attributed to selected causes (cardiovascular disease, hypertension, diabetes, stroke, chronic lower respiratory disease, pneumonia, and kidney disease) coded and classified according to the Tenth Revision of the International Classification of Diseases was analyzed. The relations between elevated air surface temperatures on cause-specific mortality were modeled. Separate Poisson regression models were fitted to explain the total number of deaths as a function of daily maximum and minimum temperatures, while adjusting for seasonal patterns. Results show a significant increase in the effect of high temperatures on mortality, during the summers of 2012 and 2013. Stroke (relative risk = 16.80, 95% CI 6.81-41.4) and cardiovascular diseases (relative risk = 16.63, 95% CI 10.47-26.42) were the primary causes of death most associated with elevated summer temperatures. Better understanding of how these heat events affect the health of the population will provide a useful tool for decision makers to address and mitigate the effects of the increasing temperatures on public health. The enhanced temperature forecast may be a crucial component in decision making during the National Weather Service Heat Watches, Advisories, and Warning process.

Climate change, heat, and mortality in the tropical urban area of San Juan, Puerto Rico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Méndez-Lázaro, Pablo A.; Pérez-Cardona, Cynthia M.; Rodríguez, Ernesto; Martínez, Odalys; Taboas, Mariela; Bocanegra, Arelis; Méndez-Tejeda, Rafael

2016-12-01

Extreme heat episodes are becoming more common worldwide, including in tropical areas of Australia, India, and Puerto Rico. Higher frequency, duration, and intensity of extreme heat episodes are triggering public health issues in most mid-latitude and continental cities. With urbanization, land use and land cover have affected local climate directly and indirectly encouraging the Urban Heat Island effect with potential impacts on heat-related morbidity and mortality among urban populations. However, this association is not completely understood in tropical islands such as Puerto Rico. The present study examines the effects of heat in two municipalities (San Juan and Bayamón) within the San Juan metropolitan area on overall and cause-specific mortality among the population between 2009 and 2013. The number of daily deaths attributed to selected causes (cardiovascular disease, hypertension, diabetes, stroke, chronic lower respiratory disease, pneumonia, and kidney disease) coded and classified according to the Tenth Revision of the International Classification of Diseases was analyzed. The relations between elevated air surface temperatures on cause-specific mortality were modeled. Separate Poisson regression models were fitted to explain the total number of deaths as a function of daily maximum and minimum temperatures, while adjusting for seasonal patterns. Results show a significant increase in the effect of high temperatures on mortality, during the summers of 2012 and 2013. Stroke (relative risk = 16.80, 95% CI 6.81-41.4) and cardiovascular diseases (relative risk = 16.63, 95% CI 10.47-26.42) were the primary causes of death most associated with elevated summer temperatures. Better understanding of how these heat events affect the health of the population will provide a useful tool for decision makers to address and mitigate the effects of the increasing temperatures on public health. The enhanced temperature forecast may be a crucial component in decision making during the National Weather Service Heat Watches, Advisories, and Warning process.

Within-summer variation in out-of-hospital cardiac arrest due to extremely long sunshine duration.

PubMed

Onozuka, Daisuke; Hagihara, Akihito

2017-03-15

Although several studies have reported the impacts of extremely high temperatures on cardiovascular diseases, no studies have examined whether variation in out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) due to extremely long sunshine duration changes during the summer. We obtained daily data on all cases of OHCA and weather variations for all 47 prefectures of Japan during the summer (June to September) between 2005 and 2014. A distributed lag non-linear model combined with a quasi-Poisson regression model was used to estimate within-summer variation in OHCA due to extremely long sunshine duration for each prefecture. Then, multivariate random-effects meta-analysis was performed to derive overall effect estimates of sunshine duration at the national level. A total of 166,496 OHCAs of presumed cardiac origin met the inclusion criteria. The minimum morbidity percentile (MMP) was the 0th percentile of sunshine duration at the national level. The overall cumulative relative risk (RR) at the 99th percentile vs. the MMP was 1.15 (95% CI: 1.05-1.27) during the summer. The effect of extremely long sunshine duration on OHCA in early summer was acute and did not persist, whereas an identical effect was observed in late summer, but it was delayed and lasted for several days. During summer periods, excessive sunshine duration could increase the risk of OHCA. Timely preventive measures to reduce the OHCA risk due to extremely long sunshine duration are important in early summer, whereas these measures could include a wider time window of several days to reduce the risk in late summer. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Investigation of alternative layouts for the supercritical carbon dioxide Brayton cycle for a sodium-cooled fast reactor.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Moisseytsev, A.; Sienicki, J. J.

2009-07-01

Analyses of supercritical carbon dioxide (S-CO{sub 2}) Brayton cycle performance have largely settled on the recompression supercritical cycle (or Feher cycle) incorporating a flow split between the main compressor downstream of heat rejection, a recompressing compressor providing direct compression without heat rejection, and high and low temperature recuperators to raise the effectiveness of recuperation and the cycle efficiency. Alternative cycle layouts have been previously examined by Angelino (Politecnico, Milan), by MIT (Dostal, Hejzlar, and Driscoll), and possibly others but not for sodium-cooled fast reactors (SFRs) operating at relatively low core outlet temperature. Thus, the present authors could not be suremore » that the recompression cycle is an optimal arrangement for application to the SFR. To ensure that an advantageous alternative layout has not been overlooked, several alternative cycle layouts have been investigated for a S-CO{sub 2} Brayton cycle coupled to the Advanced Burner Test Reactor (ABTR) SFR preconceptual design having a 510 C core outlet temperature and a 470 C turbine inlet temperature to determine if they provide any benefit in cycle performance (e.g., enhanced cycle efficiency). No such benefits were identified, consistent with the previous examinations, such that attention was devoted to optimizing the recompression supercritical cycle. The effects of optimizing the cycle minimum temperature and pressure are investigated including minimum temperatures and/or pressures below the critical values. It is found that improvements in the cycle efficiency of 1% or greater relative to previous analyses which arbitrarily fixed the minimum temperature and pressure can be realized through an optimal choice of the combination of the minimum cycle temperature and pressure (e.g., for a fixed minimum temperature there is an optimal minimum pressure). However, this leads to a requirement for a larger cooler for heat rejection which may impact the tradeoff between efficiency and capital cost. In addition, for minimum temperatures below the critical temperature, a lower heat sink temperature is required the availability of which is dependent upon the climate at the specific plant site.« less

Trends and periodicity of daily temperature and precipitation extremes during 1960-2013 in Hunan Province, central south China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Ajiao; He, Xinguang; Guan, Huade; Cai, Yi

2018-04-01

In this study, the trends and periodicity in climate extremes are examined in Hunan Province over the period 1960-2013 on the basis of 27 extreme climate indices calculated from daily temperature and precipitation records at 89 meteorological stations. The results show that in the whole province, temperature extremes exhibit a warming trend with more than 50% stations being statistically significant for 7 out of 16 temperature indices, and the nighttime temperature increases faster than the daytime temperature at the annual scale. The changes in most extreme temperature indices show strongly coherent spatial patterns. Moreover, the change rates of almost all temperature indices in north Hunan are greater than those of other regions. However, the statistically significant changes in indices of extreme precipitation are observed at fewer stations than in extreme temperature indices, forming less spatially coherent patterns. Positive trends in indices of extreme precipitation show that the amount and intensity of extreme precipitation events are generally increasing in both annual and seasonal scales, whereas the significant downward trend in consecutive wet days indicates that the precipitation becomes more even over the study period. Analysis of changes in probability distributions of extreme indices for 1960-1986 and 1987-2013 also demonstrates a remarkable shift toward warmer condition and increasing tendency in the amount and intensity of extreme precipitation during the past decades. The variations in extreme climate indices exhibit inconstant frequencies in the wavelet power spectrum. Among the 16 temperature indices, 2 of them show significant 1-year periodic oscillation and 7 of them exhibit significant 4-year cycle during some certain periods. However, significant periodic oscillations can be found in all of the precipitation indices. Wet-day precipitation and three absolute precipitation indices show significant 1-year cycle and other seven provide significant power at the 4-year period, which are mainly found during 1970-1980 and after 1992.

Using smartphones for monitoring atmospheric tides

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Price, Colin; Maor, Ron; Shachaf, Hofit

2018-09-01

By 2020 there will be more than 6 billion smartphones around the globe, carried by the public. These smartphones are equipped with sensitive sensors that can be used to monitor our environment (temperature, pressure, humidity, magnetic field, etc.) In this paper we use the pressure sensor (barometer) within smartphones to study atmospheric tides. These tides are produced by the absorption of solar radiation by water vapor in the troposphere, and by ozone in the stratosphere. The strongest tides are the semi-diurnal tides (period of 12 h) with maximum pressure at 9am/9pm and minimum pressure at 3am/3pm. Given the proliferation of smartphones around the globe, this source of environmental data may become extremely useful for scientific research in the near future.

North American Extreme Temperature Events and Related Large Scale Meteorological Patterns: A Review of Statistical Methods, Dynamics, Modeling, and Trends

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grotjahn, Richard; Black, Robert; Leung, Ruby; Wehner, Michael F.; Barlow, Mathew; Bosilovich, Michael G.; Gershunov, Alexander; Gutowski, William J., Jr.; Gyakum, John R.; Katz, Richard W.;

Statistical Downscaling and Bias Correction of Climate Model Outputs for Climate Change Impact Assessment in the U.S. Northeast

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ahmed, Kazi Farzan; Wang, Guiling; Silander, John; Wilson, Adam M.; Allen, Jenica M.; Horton, Radley; Anyah, Richard

2013-01-01

Statistical downscaling can be used to efficiently downscale a large number of General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs to a fine temporal and spatial scale. To facilitate regional impact assessments, this study statistically downscales (to 1/8deg spatial resolution) and corrects the bias of daily maximum and minimum temperature and daily precipitation data from six GCMs and four Regional Climate Models (RCMs) for the northeast United States (US) using the Statistical Downscaling and Bias Correction (SDBC) approach. Based on these downscaled data from multiple models, five extreme indices were analyzed for the future climate to quantify future changes of climate extremes. For a subset of models and indices, results based on raw and bias corrected model outputs for the present-day climate were compared with observations, which demonstrated that bias correction is important not only for GCM outputs, but also for RCM outputs. For future climate, bias correction led to a higher level of agreements among the models in predicting the magnitude and capturing the spatial pattern of the extreme climate indices. We found that the incorporation of dynamical downscaling as an intermediate step does not lead to considerable differences in the results of statistical downscaling for the study domain.

Using weather data to determine dry and wet periods relative to ethnographic records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Felzer, B. S.; Jiang, M.; Cheng, R.; Ember, C. R.

2017-12-01

Ethnographers record flood or drought events that affect a society's food supply and can be interpreted in terms of a society's ability to adapt to extreme events. Using daily weather station data from the Global Historical Climatology Network for wet events, and monthly gridded climatic data from the Climatic Research Unit for drought events, we determine if it is possible to relate these measured data to the ethnographic records. We explore several drought and wetness indices based on temperature and precipitation, as well as the Colwell method to determine the predictability, seasonality, and variability of these extreme indices. Initial results indicate that while it is possible to capture the events recorded in the ethnographic records, there are many more "false" captures of events that are not recorded in these records. Although extreme precipitation is a poor indicator of floods due to antecedent moisture conditions, even using streamflow for selected sites produces false captures. Relating drought indices to actual food supply as measured in crop yield only related to minimum crop yield in half the cases. Further mismatches between extreme precipitation and drought indices and ethnographic records may relate to the fact that only extreme events that affect food supply are recorded in the ethnographic records or that not all events are recorded by the ethnographers. We will present new results on how predictability measures relate to the ethnographic disasters. Despite the highlighted technical challenges, our results provide a historic perspective linking environmental stressors with socio-economic impacts, which in turn, will underpin the current efforts of risk assessment in a changing environment.

The Peak Structure and Future Changes of the Relationships Between Extreme Precipitation and Temperature

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Guiling; Wang, Dagang; Trenberth, Kevin E.; Erfanian, Amir; Yu, Miao; Bosilovich, Michael G.; Parr, Dana T.

2017-01-01

Theoretical models predict that, in the absence of moisture limitation, extreme precipitation intensity could exponentially increase with temperatures at a rate determined by the Clausius-Clapeyron (C-C) relationship. Climate models project a continuous increase of precipitation extremes for the twenty-first century over most of the globe. However, some station observations suggest a negative scaling of extreme precipitation with very high temperatures, raising doubts about future increase of precipitation extremes. Here we show for the present-day climate over most of the globe,the curve relating daily precipitation extremes with local temperatures has a peak structure, increasing as expected at the low medium range of temperature variations but decreasing at high temperatures. However, this peak-shaped relationship does not imply a potential upper limit for future precipitation extremes. Climate models project both the peak of extreme precipitation and the temperature at which it peaks (T(sub peak)) will increase with warming; the two increases generally conform to the C-C scaling rate in mid- and high-latitudes,and to a super C-C scaling in most of the tropics. Because projected increases of local mean temperature (T(sub mean)) far exceed projected increases of T(sub peak) over land, the conventional approach of relating extreme precipitation to T(sub mean) produces a misleading sub-C-C scaling rate.

Characteristics of atmospheric circulation patterns associated with extreme temperatures over North America in observations and climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loikith, Paul C.

Motivated by a desire to understand the physical mechanisms involved in future anthropogenic changes in extreme temperature events, the key atmospheric circulation patterns associated with extreme daily temperatures over North America in the current climate are identified. Several novel metrics are used to systematically identify and describe these patterns for the entire continent. The orientation, physical characteristics, and spatial scale of these circulation patterns vary based on latitude, season, and proximity to important geographic features (i.e., mountains, coastlines). The anomaly patterns associated with extreme cold events tend to be similar to, but opposite in sign of, those associated with extreme warm events, especially within the westerlies, and tend to scale with temperature in the same locations. The influence of the Pacific North American (PNA) pattern, the Northern Annular Mode (NAM), and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on extreme temperature days and months shows that associations between extreme temperatures and the PNA and NAM are stronger than associations with ENSO. In general, the association with extremes tends to be stronger on monthly than daily time scales. Extreme temperatures are associated with the PNA and NAM in locations typically influenced by these circulation patterns; however many extremes still occur on days when the amplitude and polarity of these patterns do not favor their occurrence. In winter, synoptic-scale, transient weather disturbances are important drivers of extreme temperature days; however these smaller-scale events are often concurrent with amplified PNA or NAM patterns. Associations are weaker in summer when other physical mechanisms affecting the surface energy balance, such as anomalous soil moisture content, are associated with extreme temperatures. Analysis of historical runs from seventeen climate models from the CMIP5 database suggests that most models simulate realistic circulation patterns associated with extreme temperature days in most places. Model-simulated patterns tend to resemble observed patterns better in the winter than the summer and at 500 hPa than at the surface. There is substantial variability among the suite of models analyzed and most models simulate circulation patterns more realistically away from influential features such as large bodies of water and complex topography.

Impacts of climate extremes on gross primary production under global warming

DOE PAGES

Williams, I. N.; Torn, M. S.; Riley, W. J.; ...

2014-09-24

The impacts of historical droughts and heat-waves on ecosystems are often considered indicative of future global warming impacts, under the assumption that water stress sets in above a fixed high temperature threshold. Historical and future (RCP8.5) Earth system model (ESM) climate projections were analyzed in this study to illustrate changes in the temperatures for onset of water stress under global warming. The ESMs examined here predict sharp declines in gross primary production (GPP) at warm temperature extremes in historical climates, similar to the observed correlations between GPP and temperature during historical heat-waves and droughts. However, soil moisture increases at themore » warm end of the temperature range, and the temperature at which soil moisture declines with temperature shifts to a higher temperature. The temperature for onset of water stress thus increases under global warming and is associated with a shift in the temperature for maximum GPP to warmer temperatures. Despite the shift in this local temperature optimum, the impacts of warm extremes on GPP are approximately invariant when extremes are defined relative to the optimal temperature within each climate period. The GPP sensitivity to these relative temperature extremes therefore remains similar between future and present climates, suggesting that the heat- and drought-induced GPP reductions seen recently can be expected to be similar in the future, and may be underestimates of future impacts given model projections of increased frequency and persistence of heat-waves and droughts. The local temperature optimum can be understood as the temperature at which the combination of water stress and light limitations is minimized, and this concept gives insights into how GPP responds to climate extremes in both historical and future climate periods. Both cold (temperature and light-limited) and warm (water-limited) relative temperature extremes become more persistent in future climate projections, and the time taken to return to locally optimal climates for GPP following climate extremes increases by more than 25% over many land regions.« less

Impacts of climate extremes on gross primary production under global warming

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Williams, I. N.; Torn, M. S.; Riley, W. J.

The impacts of historical droughts and heat-waves on ecosystems are often considered indicative of future global warming impacts, under the assumption that water stress sets in above a fixed high temperature threshold. Historical and future (RCP8.5) Earth system model (ESM) climate projections were analyzed in this study to illustrate changes in the temperatures for onset of water stress under global warming. The ESMs examined here predict sharp declines in gross primary production (GPP) at warm temperature extremes in historical climates, similar to the observed correlations between GPP and temperature during historical heat-waves and droughts. However, soil moisture increases at themore » warm end of the temperature range, and the temperature at which soil moisture declines with temperature shifts to a higher temperature. The temperature for onset of water stress thus increases under global warming and is associated with a shift in the temperature for maximum GPP to warmer temperatures. Despite the shift in this local temperature optimum, the impacts of warm extremes on GPP are approximately invariant when extremes are defined relative to the optimal temperature within each climate period. The GPP sensitivity to these relative temperature extremes therefore remains similar between future and present climates, suggesting that the heat- and drought-induced GPP reductions seen recently can be expected to be similar in the future, and may be underestimates of future impacts given model projections of increased frequency and persistence of heat-waves and droughts. The local temperature optimum can be understood as the temperature at which the combination of water stress and light limitations is minimized, and this concept gives insights into how GPP responds to climate extremes in both historical and future climate periods. Both cold (temperature and light-limited) and warm (water-limited) relative temperature extremes become more persistent in future climate projections, and the time taken to return to locally optimal climates for GPP following climate extremes increases by more than 25% over many land regions.« less

Assessment extreme hydrometeorological conditions in the Gulf of Bothnia, the Baltic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dvornikov, Anton; Martyanov, Stanislav; Ryabchenko, Vladimir; Eremina, Tatjana; Isaev, Alexey; Sein, Dmitry

2017-04-01

Extreme hydrometeorological conditions in the Gulf of Bothnia, the Baltic Sea, are estimated paying a special attention to the area of the future construction of nuclear power plant (NPP) "Hanhikivi-1" (24° 16' E, 64° 32' N). To produce these estimates, long-term observations and results from numerical models of water and ice circulation and wind waves are used. It is estimated that the average annual air temperature in the vicinity of the station is +3° C, summer and winter extreme temperature is equal to 33.3° C and -41.5° C, respectively. Model calculations of wind waves have shown that the most dangerous (in terms of the generation of wind waves in the NPP area) is a north-west wind with the direction of 310°. The maximum height of the waves in the Gulf of Bothnia near the NPP for this wind direction with wind velocity of 10 m/s is 1.2-1.4 m. According to the model estimates, the highest possible level of the sea near the NPP is 248 cm, the minimum level, -151 cm, respectively for the western and eastern winds. These estimates are in good agreement with observations on the sea level for the period 1922-2015 at the nearest hydrometeorological station Raahe (Finland). In order to assess the likely impact of the NPP on the marine environment numerical experiments for the cold (2010) and warm year (2014) have been carried out. These calculations have shown that permanent release of heat into the marine environment from the operating NPP for the cold year (2010) will increase the temperature in the upper layer of 0-250m zone by 10°C in winter - spring and by 8°C in summer - early autumn, and in the bottom layer of 0-250m zone by 5°C in winter - spring and 3°C in summer - early autumn. For the warm year (2014), these temperature changes are smaller. Ice cover in both cases will disappear in two - kilometer vicinity of the NPP. These effects should be taken into account when assessing local climate changes in the future

Introduction to the special issue on the changing Mojave Desert

USGS Publications Warehouse

Berry, Kristin H.; Murphy, R.W.; Mack, Jeremy S.; Quillman, W.

2006-01-01

The Mojave Desert, which lies between the Great Basin Desert in the north and the Sonoran Desert in the south, covers an estimated 114 478–130 464 km2 of the south-western United States and includes parts of the states of Nevada, Utah, Arizona, and California, with the amount of land mass dependent on the definition (Fig. 1; Rowlands et al., 1982; McNab and Avers, 1994; Bailey, 1995; Groves et al., 2000). This desert is sufficiently diverse to be subdivided into five regions: northern, south-western, central, south-central, and eastern (Rowlands et al., 1982). It is a land of extremes both in topography and climate. Elevations range from below sea level at Death Valley National Park to 3633 m on Mt. Charleston in the Spring Range of Nevada. Temperatures exhibit similar extreme ranges with mean minimum January temperatures of −2.4 °C in Beatty, Nevada and mean maximum July temperatures of 47 °C in Death Valley. Mean annual precipitation varies throughout the regions (42–350 mm), is highest on mountain tops, but overall is low (Rowlands et al., 1982; Rowlands, 1995a). The distribution of precipitation varies from west to east and north to south, with >85% of rain falling in winter in the northern, south-western and south-central regions. In contrast, the central and eastern regions receive a substantial amount of precipitation in both winter and summer. The variability in topographic and climatic features contributes to regional differences in vegetation.

Regional model simulations of New Zealand climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Renwick, James A.; Katzfey, Jack J.; Nguyen, Kim C.; McGregor, John L.

1998-03-01

Simulation of New Zealand climate is examined through the use of a regional climate model nested within the output of the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation nine-level general circulation model (GCM). R21 resolution GCM output is used to drive a regional model run at 125 km grid spacing over the Australasian region. The 125 km run is used in turn to drive a simulation at 50 km resolution over New Zealand. Simulations with a full seasonal cycle are performed for 10 model years. The focus is on the quality of the simulation of present-day climate, but results of a doubled-CO2 run are discussed briefly. Spatial patterns of mean simulated precipitation and surface temperatures improve markedly as horizontal resolution is increased, through the better resolution of the country's orography. However, increased horizontal resolution leads to a positive bias in precipitation. At 50 km resolution, simulated frequency distributions of daily maximum/minimum temperatures are statistically similar to those of observations at many stations, while frequency distributions of daily precipitation appear to be statistically different to those of observations at most stations. Modeled daily precipitation variability at 125 km resolution is considerably less than observed, but is comparable to, or exceeds, observed variability at 50 km resolution. The sensitivity of the simulated climate to changes in the specification of the land surface is discussed briefly. Spatial patterns of the frequency of extreme temperatures and precipitation are generally well modeled. Under a doubling of CO2, the frequency of precipitation extremes changes only slightly at most locations, while air frosts become virtually unknown except at high-elevation sites.

Integrating new indicators of predictors that shape the public's perception of local extreme temperature in China.

PubMed

Ban, Jie; Huang, Lei; Chen, Chen; Guo, Yuming; He, Mike Z; Li, Tiantian

2017-02-01

The public's risk perception of local extreme heat or cold plays a critical role in community health and prevention under climate change. However, there is limited evidence on such issues in China where extreme weather is occurring more frequently due to climate change. Here, a total of 2500 residents were selected using a three-step sampling method and investigated by a questionnaire in two representative cities. We investigated risk perception of extreme heat in Beijing and extreme cold in Harbin in 2013, aiming to examine their possible correlations with multiple epidemiological factors. We found that exposure, vulnerability, and adaptive ability were significant predictors in shaping public risk perceptions of local extreme temperature. In particular, a 1°C increase in daily temperature resulted in an increased odds of perceiving serious extreme heat in Beijing (OR=1.091; 95% CI: 1.032, 1.153), while a 1°C increase in daily temperature resulted in a decreased odds of perceiving serious extreme cold in Harbin (OR=0.965; 95% CI: 0.939, 0.992). Therefore for both extreme heat and cold, frequent local extreme temperature exposure may amplify a stronger communication. Health interventions for extreme temperature should consider exposure, vulnerability, and adaptive ability factors. This will help improve the public's perception of climatic changes and their willingness to balance adaption and mitigation appropriately. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Fermi-Pasta-Ulam System as a Model for Glasses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carati, A.; Maiocchi, A.; Galgani, L.; Amati, G.

2015-12-01

We show that the standard Fermi-Pasta-Ulam system, with a suitable choice for the interparticle potential, constitutes a model for glasses, and indeed an extremely simple and manageable one. Indeed, it allows one to describe the landscape of the minima of the potential energy and to deal concretely with any one of them, determining the spectrum of frequencies and the normal modes. A relevant role is played by the harmonic energy {E} relative to a given minimum, i.e., the expansion of the Hamiltonian about the minimum up to second order. Indeed we find that there exists an energy threshold in {E} such that below it the harmonic energy {E} appears to be an approximate integral of motion for the whole observation time. Consequently, the system remains trapped near the minimum, in what may be called a vitreous or glassy state. Instead, for larger values of {E} the system rather quickly relaxes to a final equilibrium state. Moreover we find that the vitreous states present peculiar statistical behaviors, still involving the harmonic energy {E}. Indeed, the vitreous states are described by a Gibbs distribution with an effective Hamiltonian close to {E} and with a suitable effective inverse temperature. The final equilibrium state presents instead statistical properties which are in very good agreement with the Gibbs distribution relative to the full Hamiltonian of the system.

First Precision Photometric Observations and Analyses of the Totally Eclipsing, Solar Type Binary V573 Pegasi

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samec, R. G.; Caton, D. B.; Faulkner, D. R.

2018-06-01

CCD VRcIc light curves of V573 Peg were taken 26 and 27 September and 2, 4, and 6 October, 2017, at the Dark Sky Observatory in North Carolina with the 0.81-m reflector of Appalachian State University. Five times of minimum light were calculated, two primary and three secondary eclipses, from our present observations. The following quadratic ephemeris was determined from all available times of minimum light: JD Hel MinI = 2456876.4958 (2) d + 0.41744860 (8) × E -2.74 (12) × 10^-10 × E2, where the parentheses hold the ± error in the last two digits of the preceding value. A 14-year period study (covered by 24 times of minimum light) reveals a decreasing orbital period with high confidence, possibly due to magnetic braking. The mass ratio is found to be somewhat extreme, M2 / M1 = 0.2629 ± 0.0006 (M1 / M2 = 3.8). Its Roche Lobe fill-out is ˜25%. The solution had no need of spots. The component temperature difference is about 130 K, with the less massive component as the hotter one, so it is a W-type W UMa Binary. The inclination is 80.4 ± 0.1°. Our secondary eclipse shows a time of constant light with an eclipse duration of 24 minutes. More information is given in the following report.

Boundaries for martensitic transition of 7Li under pressure

DOE PAGES

Schaeffer, Anne Marie; Cai, Weizhao; Olejnik, Ella; ...

2015-08-14

We report that physical properties of lithium under extreme pressures continuously reveal unexpected features. These include a sequence of structural transitions to lower symmetry phases, metal-insulator-metal transition, superconductivity with one of the highest elemental transition temperatures, and a maximum followed by a minimum in its melting line. The instability of the bcc structure of lithium is well established by the presence of a temperature-driven martensitic phase transition. The boundaries of this phase, however, have not been previously explored above 3 GPa. All higher pressure phase boundaries are either extrapolations or inferred based on indirect evidence. Here we explore the pressuremore » dependence of the martensitic transition of lithium up to 7 GPa using a combination of neutron and X-ray scattering. We find a rather unexpected deviation from the extrapolated boundaries of the hR3 phase of lithium. Furthermore, there is evidence that, above ~3 GPa, once in fcc phase, lithium does not undergo a martensitic transition.« less

Quantum Transport near the Charge Neutrality Point in Inverted Type-II InAs/GaSb Field-Effect Transistors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, W.; Klem, J. F.; Kim, J. K.; Thalakulam, M.; Cich, M. J.; Lyo, S. K.

2013-03-01

We present here our recent quantum transport results around the charge neutrality point (CNP) in a type-II InAs/GaSb field-effect transistor. At zero magnetic field, a conductance minimum close to 4e2 / h develops at the CNP and it follows semi-logarithmic temperature dependence. In quantized magnetic (B) fields and at low temperatures, well developed integer quantum Hall states are observed in the electron as well as hole regimes. Electron transport shows noisy behavior around the CNP at extremely high B fields. When the diagonal conductivity σxx is plotted against the Hall conductivity σxy, a conductivity circle law is discovered, suggesting a chaotic quantum transport behavior. Sandia National Laboratories is a multi-program laboratory managed and operated by Sandia Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lockheed Martin Corporation, for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.

Mortality impact of extreme winter temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Díaz, Julio; García, Ricardo; López, César; Linares, Cristina; Tobías, Aurelio; Prieto, Luis

2005-01-01

During the last few years great attention has been paid to the evaluation of the impact of extreme temperatures on human health. This paper examines the effect of extreme winter temperature on mortality in Madrid for people older than 65, using ARIMA and GAM models. Data correspond to 1,815 winter days over the period 1986 1997, during which time a total of 133,000 deaths occurred. The daily maximum temperature (Tmax) was shown to be the best thermal indicator of the impact of climate on mortality. When total mortality was considered, the maximum impact occured 7 8 days after a temperature extreme; for circulatory diseases the lag was between 7 and 14 days. When respiratory causes were considered, two mortality peaks were evident at 4 5 and 11 days. When the impact of winter extreme temperatures was compared with that associated with summer extremes, it was found to occur over a longer term, and appeared to be more indirect.

Extreme events of perceived temperature over Europe: a projected northward extension of dangerous areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scoccimarro, Enrico; Fogli, Pier Giuseppe; Gualdi, Silvio

2017-04-01

It is well known that an increase of temperature over Europe, both in terms of averages and extremes, is expected within the current century. In order to consider health impacts under warm conditions, it is important to take into account the combined effect of temperature and humidity on the human body. To this aim a basic index - the humindex - representative of the perceived temperature, under different scenarios and periods, has been investigated in this study. A very low concomitance of extreme temperature events and extreme humindex events is found over the present climate, reinforcing the importance to investigate not only extreme temperature and relative humidity future projections but also the combination of the two parameters. A set of 10-km resolution regional climate simulations provided within the EUR-11 EURO-CORDEX multi-model effort, demonstrates ability in representing the intense and extreme events of the humindex over the present climate and to be eligible as a tool to quantify future changes in geographical patterns of exposed areas over Europe. An enlargement of the domain subject to dangerous conditions is found since the middle of the current century, reaching 60 degrees North when considering really extreme events. The most significant increase in humindex extreme events is found when comparing the 2066-2095 projections under rcp8.5 scenario, to the 1966-2005 period: bearing in mind that changes in relative humidity may either amplify or offset the health effects of temperature extremes, a less pronounced projected reduction of relative humidity intensity in the Northern part of the European domain, associated to extreme temperature and humindex, makes Northern Europe the most prone region to a local increase of the humindex extremes.

Extreme Events in Urban Streams Leading to Extreme Temperatures in Birmingham, UK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rangecroft, S.; Croghan, D.; Van Loon, A.; Sadler, J. P.; Hannah, D. M.

2016-12-01

Extreme flows and high water temperature events act as critical stressors on the ecological health of rivers. Urban headwater streams are considered particularly vulnerable to the effects of these extreme events. Despite this, such catchments remain poorly characterised and the effect of differences in land use is rarely quantified, especially in relation to water temperature. Thus a key research gap has emerged in understanding the patterns of water temperature during extreme events within contrasting urban, headwater catchments. We studied the headwaters of two bordering urban catchments of contrasting land use within Birmingham, UK. To characterise response to extreme events, precipitation and flow were analysed for the period of 1970-2016. To analyse the effects of extreme events on water temperature, 10 temperature loggers recording at 15 minute intervals were placed within each catchment covering a range of land use for the period May 2016 - present. During peak over threshold flood events higher average peaks were observed in the less urbanised catchment; however highest maximum flow peaks took place in the more densely urbanised catchment. Very similar average drought durations were observed between the two catchments with average flow drought durations of 27 days in the most urbanised catchment, and 29 in the less urbanised catchment. Flashier water temperature regimes were observed within the more urbanised catchment and increases of up to 5 degrees were apparent within 30 minutes during certain storms at the most upstream sites. Only in the most extreme events did the more densely urban stream appear more susceptible to both extreme high flows and extreme water temperature events, possibly resultant from overland flow emerging as the dominant flow pathway during intense precipitation events. Water temperature surges tended to be highly spatially variable indicating the importance of local land use. During smaller events, water temperature was less changeable and spatially variable, suggesting that overland flow may not the dominant flow pathway in such events. During drought events, the effect of catchment land use on water temperature was less apparent.

Climatological characteristics in the extreme hyper-arid region of Pampas de La Joya, Peru. Astrobiological approach in four years of observation: 2004-2008

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valdivia-Silva, Julio E.; Navarro-González, Rafael; Fletcher, Lauren; Pérez-Montaño, Saúl; Condori-Apaza, Reneé; Ortega-Gutiérrez, Fernando; McKay, Christopher

2012-01-01

This study reports the environmental conditions of temperature, moisture and radiation for four years (May 2004 to July 2008) in the area known as Pampas de La Joya in southern Peru, which recently has been considered as a new Mars analogue. The period of evaluation includes the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) during the months of September 2006 to March 2007, which, despite not having catastrophic effects like its predecessor on 1997-1998, showed an interesting increase in humidity. Our data describe the extreme conditions present in the region and their relationship with the presence of potential habitats that could allow for the survival of micro-organisms. The average environmental temperature was 18.9°C, with a maximum of 35.9°C and a minimum of -4.5°C. The annual average incident solar radiation was 508 W m-2, with high near 1060 W m-2 at noon during the driest period between September and March. The average relative humidity (RH) was 29.5, 20.1 and 20.4% for air, soil and rock, respectively. The RH had higher values at night due to fog during the months of June and August, and during the early morning between December and March. During the months of ENSO event there were four episodes of precipitation (1.1, 1.5, 2.0 and 0.9 mm), of which three increased soil and rock moisture on an average more than 45% and persisted for over 15 days after precipitation, while the atmospheric environment had no significant variations. Finally, quartz rocks and evaporite minerals colonized with micro-organisms were found as the only micro-habitats, in this region, capable of supporting life in this extreme environment.

Morphology, surface temperatures, and northern limits of columnar cacti in the Sonoran Desert

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nobel, P.S.

1980-02-01

Interspecific morphological differences and intraspecific morphological changes with latitude were evaluated to help examine the distributional ranges of Carnegiea gigantea, Lemaireocereus thurberi, Lophocereus schottii, Pachycereus pecten-aboriginum, and P. pringlei in the Sonoran Desert (US and Mexico). A computer model, which predicted the average surface temperature of the stem within 1/sup 0/C of that measured hourly throughout a 24-h period, was particularly useful in studying the thermal relations of the stem apex, where the lowest surface temperature occurred. Simulated increases in stem diameter raised the minimum apical temperature for C. gigantea and may help account for the extension of its rangemore » to higher latitudes than the other species studied. However, diameter increases led to a slight decrease in minimum apical temperatures for Lophocereus schottii. The immature stems of L. schottii are morphologically distinct from the mature stems, which caused minimum apical temperatures to be 1.6/sup 0/C lower for the immature stems under given environmental conditions; thus, freezing damage to the immature stems could limit the northward extension of the range of this species. As the apical pubescence in the simulations was increased up to the normal amount (10 mm), the minimum apical temperature for the stem of C. gigantea increased 2.4/sup 0/C. Simulated increases in spine shading of the apexalso raised the minimum apical temperatures, again indicating the influence of morphological features on the temperature of the meristematic region.« less

40 CFR 63.1365 - Test methods and initial compliance procedures.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... design minimum and average temperature in the combustion zone and the combustion zone residence time. (B... establish the design minimum and average flame zone temperatures and combustion zone residence time, and... carbon bed temperature after regeneration, design carbon bed regeneration time, and design service life...

Australia's Unprecedented Future Temperature Extremes Under Paris Limits to Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lewis, Sophie C.; King, Andrew D.; Mitchell, Daniel M.

2017-10-01

Record-breaking temperatures can detrimentally impact ecosystems, infrastructure, and human health. Previous studies show that climate change has influenced some observed extremes, which are expected to become more frequent under enhanced future warming. Understanding the magnitude, as a well as frequency, of such future extremes is critical for limiting detrimental impacts. We focus on temperature changes in Australian regions, including over a major coral reef-building area, and assess the potential magnitude of future extreme temperatures under Paris Agreement global warming targets (1.5°C and 2°C). Under these limits to global mean warming, we determine a set of projected high-magnitude unprecedented Australian temperature extremes. These include extremes unexpected based on observational temperatures, including current record-breaking events. For example, while the difference in global-average warming during the hottest Australian summer and the 2°C Paris target is 1.1°C, extremes of 2.4°C above the observed summer record are simulated. This example represents a more than doubling of the magnitude of extremes, compared with global mean change, and such temperatures are unexpected based on the observed record alone. Projected extremes do not necessarily scale linearly with mean global warming, and this effect demonstrates the significant potential benefits of limiting warming to 1.5°C, compared to 2°C or warmer.

Projected regional changes in the characteristics of dry and moist heat waves in the United States derived from downscaled CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schoof, J. T.

2017-12-01

Extreme temperatures affect society in multiple ways, but the impacts are often different depending on the concurrent humidity. For example, the greatest impacts on human morbidity and mortality result when the temperature and humidity are both elevated. Conversely, high temperatures coupled with low humidity often lead to agricultural impacts resulting in lower yields. Despite the importance of humidity in determining heat wave impacts, relatively few students of future temperature extremes have also considered possible changes in humidity. In a recent study, we investigated recent historical changes in the frequency and intensity and low humidity and high humidity extreme temperature events using a framework based on isobaric equivalent temperature. Here, we extend this approach to climate projections from CMIP5 models to explore possible regional changes in extreme heat characteristics. After using quantile mapping to bias correct and downscale the CMIP5 model outputs, we analyze results from two future periods (2031-2055 and 2061-2085) and two representative concentration pathways, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, corresponding to moderate and high levels of radiative forcing from greenhouse gases. For each of seven US regions, we consider changes in extreme temperature frequency, changes in the proportion of extreme temperature days characterized by high humidity, and changes in the magnitude of temperature and humidity on extreme temperature days.

The use of NOAA AVHRR data for assessment of the urban heat sland effect

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gallo, K.P.; McNab, A. L.; Karl, Thomas R.; Brown, Jesslyn F.; Hood, J. J.; Tarpley, J.D.

1993-01-01

A vegetation index and a radiative surface temperature were derived from satellite data acquired at approximately 1330 LST for each of 37 cities and for their respective nearby rural regions from 28 June through 8 August 1991. Urban–rural differences for the vegetation index and the surface temperatures were computed and then compared to observed urban–rural differences in minimum air temperatures. The purpose of these comparisons was to evaluate the use of satellite data to assess the influence of the urban environment on observed minimum air temperatures (the urban heat island effect). The temporal consistency of the data, from daily data to weekly, biweekly, and monthly intervals, was also evaluated. The satellite-derived normalized difference (ND) vegetation-index data, sampled over urban and rural regions composed of a variety of land surface environments, were linearly related to the difference in observed urban and rural minimum temperatures. The relationship between the ND index and observed differences in minimum temperature was improved when analyses were restricted by elevation differences between the sample locations and when biweekly or monthly intervals were utilized. The difference in the ND index between urban and rural regions appears to be an indicator of the difference in surface properties (evaporation and heat storage capacity) between the two environments that are responsible for differences in urban and rural minimum temperatures. The urban and rural differences in the ND index explain a greater amount of the variation observed in minimum temperature differences than past analyses that utilized urban population data. The use of satellite data may contribute to a globally consistent method for analysis of urban heat island bias.

Effects of Extreme Temperatures on Cause-Specific Cardiovascular Mortality in China

PubMed Central

Wang, Xuying; Li, Guoxing; Liu, Liqun; Westerdahl, Dane; Jin, Xiaobin; Pan, Xiaochuan

2015-01-01

Objective: Limited evidence is available for the effects of extreme temperatures on cause-specific cardiovascular mortality in China. Methods: We collected data from Beijing and Shanghai, China, during 2007–2009, including the daily mortality of cardiovascular disease, cerebrovascular disease, ischemic heart disease and hypertensive disease, as well as air pollution concentrations and weather conditions. We used Poisson regression with a distributed lag non-linear model to examine the effects of extremely high and low ambient temperatures on cause-specific cardiovascular mortality. Results: For all cause-specific cardiovascular mortality, Beijing had stronger cold and hot effects than those in Shanghai. The cold effects on cause-specific cardiovascular mortality reached the strongest at lag 0–27, while the hot effects reached the strongest at lag 0–14. The effects of extremely low and high temperatures differed by mortality types in the two cities. Hypertensive disease in Beijing was particularly susceptible to both extremely high and low temperatures; while for Shanghai, people with ischemic heart disease showed the greatest relative risk (RRs = 1.16, 95% CI: 1.03, 1.34) to extremely low temperature. Conclusion: People with hypertensive disease were particularly susceptible to extremely low and high temperatures in Beijing. People with ischemic heart disease in Shanghai showed greater susceptibility to extremely cold days. PMID:26703637

Effects of Extreme Temperatures on Cause-Specific Cardiovascular Mortality in China.

PubMed

Wang, Xuying; Li, Guoxing; Liu, Liqun; Westerdahl, Dane; Jin, Xiaobin; Pan, Xiaochuan

2015-12-21

Limited evidence is available for the effects of extreme temperatures on cause-specific cardiovascular mortality in China. We collected data from Beijing and Shanghai, China, during 2007-2009, including the daily mortality of cardiovascular disease, cerebrovascular disease, ischemic heart disease and hypertensive disease, as well as air pollution concentrations and weather conditions. We used Poisson regression with a distributed lag non-linear model to examine the effects of extremely high and low ambient temperatures on cause-specific cardiovascular mortality. For all cause-specific cardiovascular mortality, Beijing had stronger cold and hot effects than those in Shanghai. The cold effects on cause-specific cardiovascular mortality reached the strongest at lag 0-27, while the hot effects reached the strongest at lag 0-14. The effects of extremely low and high temperatures differed by mortality types in the two cities. Hypertensive disease in Beijing was particularly susceptible to both extremely high and low temperatures; while for Shanghai, people with ischemic heart disease showed the greatest relative risk (RRs = 1.16, 95% CI: 1.03, 1.34) to extremely low temperature. People with hypertensive disease were particularly susceptible to extremely low and high temperatures in Beijing. People with ischemic heart disease in Shanghai showed greater susceptibility to extremely cold days.

Differences between true mean temperatures and means calculated with four different approaches: a case study from three Croatian stations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonacci, Ognjen; Željković, Ivana

2018-01-01

Different countries use varied methods for daily mean temperature calculation. None of them assesses precisely the true daily mean temperature, which is defined as the integral of continuous temperature measurements in a day. Of special scientific as well as practical importance is to find out how temperatures calculated by different methods and approaches deviate from the true daily mean temperature. Five mean daily temperatures were calculated (T0, T1, T2, T3, T4) using five different equations. The mean of 24-h temperature observations during the calendar day is accepted to represent the true, daily mean T0. The differences Δ i between T0 and four other mean daily temperatures T1, T2, T3, and T4 were calculated and analysed. In the paper, analyses were done with hourly data measured in a period from 1 January 1999 to 31 December 2014 (149,016 h, 192 months and 16 years) at three Croatian meteorological stations. The stations are situated in distinct climatological areas: Zagreb Grič in a mild climate, Zavižan in the cold mountain region and Dubrovnik in the hot Mediterranean. Influence of fog on the temperature is analysed. Special attention is given to analyses of extreme (maximum and minimum) daily differences occurred at three analysed stations. Selection of the fixed local hours, which is in use for calculation of mean daily temperature, plays a crucial role in diminishing of bias from the true daily temperature.

Resilience of a High Latitude Red Sea Frining Corals Exposed to Extreme Temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moustafa, M.; Moustafa, M. S.; Moustafa, S.; Moustafa, Z. D.

2013-05-01

Since 2004, multi-year study set out to establish linkages between fringing coral reefs in the northern Gulf of Suez, Red Sea, and local weather. Insight into local meteorological processes may provide a better understanding of the direct influence weather has on a fringing coral reef. To establish trends, seawater temperature and meteorological record were collected at a small fringing coral reef (Zaki's Reef), located near Ein Sokhna, Egypt (29.5oN & 32.4oE). Monitoring air and water temperature provides evidence of seasonality and interannual variability and may reveal correlations between reef health and climate conditions in this region. Prior to this study, there were no known long-term studies investigating coral reefs in this region. Approximately 35 coral taxa are known to survive the extreme temperature and salinity regime found here, yet only six corals compose 94% of coral cover on Zaki's Reef. Dominant corals include: Acropora humilis, A. microclados, A. hemprichii, Litophyton arboretum, Stylophora pistillata, Porites columna, and P. plantulata. Seawater temperatures were collected at 30 minutes intervals at 5 locations. Seawater temperature data indicate that corals experience 4-6.5oC daily temperature variations and seasonal variations that exceed 29oC. Air temperatures were collected just landward of the reef were compared to Hurghada and Ismailia 400 and 200 km south and north of the study site, respectively. Time series analysis results indicate that air temperature dominant frequencies are half-daily, daily, and yearly cycles, while water temperatures show yearly cycles. A comparison of air temperature with neighboring locations indicates that air temperatures at Ein Sokhna ranged between near 0o C to an excess of 55o C, yet, daily means for Ein Sokhna and Hurghada were very similar (24.2o C and. 25.2o C, respectively). Maximum daily air temperatures at the study site exceeded maximum air temperature at Hurghada (400 km south) by almost 7o C, while minimum daily means at Ein Sokhna were almost equal to those at Ismailia (200 km north). These trends were opposite to what was expected considering each stations geographical locations. The unexpected temperature trends, the daily/half daily dominant frequencies, and the short distance between the mountain range and Zaki's Reef vs. Hurghada (0.5 vs. 35 km), prompted us to hypothesize that a Foehn wind may be responsible for the high air temperatures observed at Ein Sokhna. We applied NOAA's HYSPLIT model to explore local circulation patterns, which suggest that the high mountain range blocks the year-round trade wind and forces it to climb up the western slope, where it loses moisture and reduces its temperature. As this cool, denser air reaches the mountain top, the air parcel starts rolling down the eastern slopes, which causes air temperature to rise and result in an increase in local air temperatures. These warmer than normal air temperatures measured here may aid in securing these northernmost reefs survival. Further scrutiny of the mechanisms by which area reefs are able to thrive extreme environmental conditions continues to be investigated.

Global Weirding? - Using Very Large Ensembles and Extreme Value Theory to assess Changes in Extreme Weather Events Today

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otto, F. E. L.; Mitchell, D.; Sippel, S.; Black, M. T.; Dittus, A. J.; Harrington, L. J.; Mohd Saleh, N. H.

2014-12-01

A shift in the distribution of socially-relevant climate variables such as daily minimum winter temperatures and daily precipitation extremes, has been attributed to anthropogenic climate change for various mid-latitude regions. However, while there are many process-based arguments suggesting also a change in the shape of these distributions, attribution studies demonstrating this have not currently been undertaken. Here we use a very large initial condition ensemble of ~40,000 members simulating the European winter 2013/2014 using the distributed computing infrastructure under the weather@home project. Two separate scenarios are used:1. current climate conditions, and 2. a counterfactual scenario of "world that might have been" without anthropogenic forcing. Specifically focusing on extreme events, we assess how the estimated parameters of the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution vary depending on variable-type, sampling frequency (daily, monthly, …) and geographical region. We find that the location parameter changes for most variables but, depending on the region and variables, we also find significant changes in scale and shape parameters. The very large ensemble allows, furthermore, to assess whether such findings in the fitted GEV distributions are consistent with an empirical analysis of the model data, and whether the most extreme data still follow a known underlying distribution that in a small sample size might otherwise be thought of as an out-lier. The ~40,000 member ensemble is simulated using 12 different SST patterns (1 'observed', and 11 best guesses of SSTs with no anthropogenic warming). The range in SSTs, along with the corresponding changings in the NAO and high-latitude blocking inform on the dynamics governing some of these extreme events. While strong tele-connection patterns are not found in this particular experiment, the high number of simulated extreme events allows for a more thorough analysis of the dynamics than has been performed before. Therefore, combining extreme value theory with very large ensemble simulations allows us to understand the dynamics of changes in extreme events which is not possible just using the former but also shows in which cases statistics combined with smaller ensembles give as valid results as very large initial conditions.

Simulation of climate characteristics and extremes of the Volta Basin using CCLM and RCA regional climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Darko, Deborah; Adjei, Kwaku A.; Appiah-Adjei, Emmanuel K.; Odai, Samuel N.; Obuobie, Emmanuel; Asmah, Ruby

2018-06-01

The extent to which statistical bias-adjusted outputs of two regional climate models alter the projected change signals for the mean (and extreme) rainfall and temperature over the Volta Basin is evaluated. The outputs from two regional climate models in the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment for Africa (CORDEX-Africa) are bias adjusted using the quantile mapping technique. Annual maxima rainfall and temperature with their 10- and 20-year return values for the present (1981-2010) and future (2051-2080) climates are estimated using extreme value analyses. Moderate extremes are evaluated using extreme indices (viz. percentile-based, duration-based, and intensity-based). Bias adjustment of the original (bias-unadjusted) models improves the reproduction of mean rainfall and temperature for the present climate. However, the bias-adjusted models poorly reproduce the 10- and 20-year return values for rainfall and maximum temperature whereas the extreme indices are reproduced satisfactorily for the present climate. Consequently, projected changes in rainfall and temperature extremes were weak. The bias adjustment results in the reduction of the change signals for the mean rainfall while the mean temperature signals are rather magnified. The projected changes for the original mean climate and extremes are not conserved after bias adjustment with the exception of duration-based extreme indices.

46 CFR 153.370 - Minimum relief valve setting for ambient temperature cargo tanks.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... 46 Shipping 5 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Minimum relief valve setting for ambient temperature... temperature cargo tanks. The relief valve setting for a containment system that carries a cargo at ambient temperature must at least equal the cargo's vapor pressure at 46 °C (approx. 115 °F). [CGD 81-078, 50 FR 21173...

46 CFR 153.370 - Minimum relief valve setting for ambient temperature cargo tanks.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... 46 Shipping 5 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Minimum relief valve setting for ambient temperature... temperature cargo tanks. The relief valve setting for a containment system that carries a cargo at ambient temperature must at least equal the cargo's vapor pressure at 46 °C (approx. 115 °F). [CGD 81-078, 50 FR 21173...

46 CFR 153.370 - Minimum relief valve setting for ambient temperature cargo tanks.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... 46 Shipping 5 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Minimum relief valve setting for ambient temperature... temperature cargo tanks. The relief valve setting for a containment system that carries a cargo at ambient temperature must at least equal the cargo's vapor pressure at 46 °C (approx. 115 °F). [CGD 81-078, 50 FR 21173...

46 CFR 153.370 - Minimum relief valve setting for ambient temperature cargo tanks.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 46 Shipping 5 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Minimum relief valve setting for ambient temperature... temperature cargo tanks. The relief valve setting for a containment system that carries a cargo at ambient temperature must at least equal the cargo's vapor pressure at 46 °C (approx. 115 °F). [CGD 81-078, 50 FR 21173...

46 CFR 153.370 - Minimum relief valve setting for ambient temperature cargo tanks.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... 46 Shipping 5 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Minimum relief valve setting for ambient temperature... temperature cargo tanks. The relief valve setting for a containment system that carries a cargo at ambient temperature must at least equal the cargo's vapor pressure at 46 °C (approx. 115 °F). [CGD 81-078, 50 FR 21173...

OSO 8 observations of wave propagation in the solar chromosphere and transition region

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chipman, E. G.

1978-01-01

The University of Colorado instrument on OSO 8 has been used to observe relative phases of the 300-s intensity variation between the temperature-minimum region and several emission lines formed in the solar chromosphere and chromosphere-corona transition region. The lines used are due to Fe II, Si II, C II, Si IV, and C IV. The scattered light in the spectrograph, which originates almost entirely in the spectral region between 1700 and 1900 A, was used as a probe of the temperature-minimum region. The lines of Fe II, Si II, and C II show almost identical delays of approximately 30 s relative to the temperature minimum, while the intensity oscillations of the lines of Si IV and C IV appear to lead the temperature-minimum intensity oscillations by about 10 s.

[Temporal change in annual air temperature and heat island effect in a coastal city and an inland city at mid-latitude in China during 1956-1998].

PubMed

Chao, Lu-men; Sun, Jian-xin

2009-12-01

Temporal changes in air temperature and urban heat island (UHI) effects during 1956-1998 were compared between a coastal city, Ji' nan, and an inland city, Xi' an, which were similar in latitude, size and development. During 1956-1978, except that the annual mean minimum temperature in Ji' nan increased by 0.37 degrees C x 10 a(-1), the temperature variables in the two cities did not display any apparent trend. During 1979-1998, all temperature variables of the two cities showed an increasing trend. Comparing with that in Ji' nan, the increasing rate of annual mean maximum temperature and annual mean temperature in Xi' an was greater, but that of annual mean minimum temperature was smaller. In the two cities, heat island effect occurred during 1956-1978 but without any apparent trend, whereas during 1979-1998, this effect increased with time, especially in Xi' an where the annual mean minimum temperature and annual mean temperature increased by 0.22 degrees C x 10 a(-1) and 0.32 degrees C x 10 a(-1), respectively. Both the level and the inter-annual variation of the heat island effect were much greater in Ji' nan than in Xi' an, but the increasing rate of this effect was greater in Xi' an than in Ji' nan. Obvious differences were observed in the increasing rate of annual mean maximum air temperature, annual mean air temperature, and annual mean minimum temperature as well as the heat island effect in Ji' nan, whereas negligible differences were found in Xi' an. Among the three temperature variables, annual mean minimum temperature displayed the most obvious increasing trend and was most affected by heat island effect, while annual mean maximum temperature was most variable inter-annually. Geographical location not only affected the magnitude of urban warming, but also affected the mode of urban warming and the strength of heat island effect.

Increasing occurrence of cold and warm extremes during the recent global warming slowdown.

PubMed

Johnson, Nathaniel C; Xie, Shang-Ping; Kosaka, Yu; Li, Xichen

2018-04-30

The recent levelling of global mean temperatures after the late 1990s, the so-called global warming hiatus or slowdown, ignited a surge of scientific interest into natural global mean surface temperature variability, observed temperature biases, and climate communication, but many questions remain about how these findings relate to variations in more societally relevant temperature extremes. Here we show that both summertime warm and wintertime cold extreme occurrences increased over land during the so-called hiatus period, and that these increases occurred for distinct reasons. The increase in cold extremes is associated with an atmospheric circulation pattern resembling the warm Arctic-cold continents pattern, whereas the increase in warm extremes is tied to a pattern of sea surface temperatures resembling the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. These findings indicate that large-scale factors responsible for the most societally relevant temperature variations over continents are distinct from those of global mean surface temperature.

Linking Excessive Heat with Daily Heat-Related Mortality over the Coterminous United States

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Quattrochi, Dale A.; Crosson, William L.; Al-Hamdan, Mohammad Z.; Estes, Maurice G., Jr.

2014-01-01

In the United States, extreme heat is the most deadly weather-related hazard. In the face of a warming climate and urbanization, which contributes to local-scale urban heat islands, it is very likely that extreme heat events (EHEs) will become more common and more severe in the U.S. This research seeks to provide historical and future measures of climate-driven extreme heat events to enable assessments of the impacts of heat on public health over the coterminous U.S. We use atmospheric temperature and humidity information from meteorological reanalysis and from Global Climate Models (GCMs) to provide data on past and future heat events. The focus of research is on providing assessments of the magnitude, frequency and geographic distribution of extreme heat in the U.S. to facilitate public health studies. In our approach, long-term climate change is captured with GCM outputs, and the temporal and spatial characteristics of short-term extremes are represented by the reanalysis data. Two future time horizons for 2040 and 2090 are compared to the recent past period of 1981- 2000. We characterize regional-scale temperature and humidity conditions using GCM outputs for two climate change scenarios (A2 and A1B) defined in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). For each future period, 20 years of multi-model GCM outputs are analyzed to develop a 'heat stress climatology' based on statistics of extreme heat indicators. Differences between the two future and the past period are used to define temperature and humidity changes on a monthly time scale and regional spatial scale. These changes are combined with the historical meteorological data, which is hourly and at a spatial scale (12 km) much finer than that of GCMs, to create future climate realizations. From these realizations, we compute the daily heat stress measures and related spatially-specific climatological fields, such as the mean annual number of days above certain thresholds of maximum and minimum air temperatures, heat indices, and a new heat stress variable developed as part of this research that gives an integrated measure of heat stress (and relief) over the course of a day. Comparisons are made between projected (2040 and 2090) and past (1990) heat stress statistics. Outputs are aggregated to the county level, which is a popular scale of analysis for public health interests. County-level statistics are made available to public health researchers by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) via the Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (WONDER) system. This addition of heat stress measures to CDC WONDER allows decision and policy makers to assess the impact of alternative approaches to optimize the public health response to EHEs. Through CDC WONDER, users are able to spatially and temporally query public health and heat-related data sets and create county-level maps and statistical charts of such data across the coterminous U.S.

Impact of meteorological factors on the spatiotemporal patterns of dengue fever incidence.

PubMed

Chien, Lung-Chang; Yu, Hwa-Lung

2014-12-01

Dengue fever is one of the most widespread vector-borne diseases and has caused more than 50 million infections annually over the world. For the purposes of disease prevention and climate change health impact assessment, it is crucial to understand the weather-disease associations for dengue fever. This study investigated the nonlinear delayed impact of meteorological conditions on the spatiotemporal variations of dengue fever in southern Taiwan during 1998-2011. We present a novel integration of a distributed lag nonlinear model and Markov random fields to assess the nonlinear lagged effects of weather variables on temporal dynamics of dengue fever and to account for the geographical heterogeneity. This study identified the most significant meteorological measures to dengue fever variations, i.e., weekly minimum temperature, and the weekly maximum 24-hour rainfall, by obtaining the relative risk (RR) with respect to disease counts and a continuous 20-week lagged time. Results show that RR increased as minimum temperature increased, especially for the lagged period 5-18 weeks, and also suggest that the time to high disease risks can be decreased. Once the occurrence of maximum 24-hour rainfall is >50 mm, an associated increased RR lasted for up to 15 weeks. A temporary one-month decrease in the RR of dengue fever is noted following the extreme rain. In addition, the elevated incidence risk is identified in highly populated areas. Our results highlight the high nonlinearity of temporal lagged effects and magnitudes of temperature and rainfall on dengue fever epidemics. The results can be a practical reference for the early warning of dengue fever. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prediction of summer maximum and minimum temperature over the central and western United States: the roles of soil moisture and sea surface temperature

USGS Publications Warehouse

Alfaro, Eric J.; Gershunov, Alexander; Cayan, Daniel R.

2006-01-01

A statistical model based on canonical correlation analysis (CCA) was used to explore climatic associations and predictability of June–August (JJA) maximum and minimum surface air temperatures (Tmax and Tmin) as well as the frequency of Tmax daily extremes (Tmax90) in the central and western United States (west of 90°W). Explanatory variables are monthly and seasonal Pacific Ocean SST (PSST) and the Climate Division Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) during 1950–2001. Although there is a positive correlation between Tmax and Tmin, the two variables exhibit somewhat different patterns and dynamics. Both exhibit their lowest levels of variability in summer, but that of Tmax is greater than Tmin. The predictability of Tmax is mainly associated with local effects related to previous soil moisture conditions at short range (one month to one season), with PSST providing a secondary influence. Predictability of Tmin is more strongly influenced by large-scale (PSST) patterns, with PDSI acting as a short-range predictive influence. For both predictand variables (Tmax and Tmin), the PDSI influence falls off markedly at time leads beyond a few months, but a PSST influence remains for at least two seasons. The maximum predictive skill for JJA Tmin, Tmax, and Tmax90 is from May PSST and PDSI. Importantly, skills evaluated for various seasons and time leads undergo a seasonal cycle that has maximum levels in summer. At the seasonal time frame, summer Tmax prediction skills are greatest in the Midwest, northern and central California, Arizona, and Utah. Similar results were found for Tmax90. In contrast, Tmin skill is spread over most of the western region, except for clusters of low skill in the northern Midwest and southern Montana, Idaho, and northern Arizona.

Coastal Upwelling and Deep Fog: 50-year Worldwide Climatology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koracin, D. R.

2015-12-01

An analysis is presented of the marine fog distribution based upon the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS) ship observations taken during 1950-2007. Deep fog occurrence is reported in routine weather reports that are encoded in an ICOADS ship observation. Occurrence is estimated by the number of deep fog observations divided by the total present weather observations in a one-degree area centered on latitude and longitude grid point intersections. The mean fog occurrence for the summer (June-July-August) 1950-2007 was computed for each one degree point for the world. There are five major world locations with coastal SST minimums due to wind driven upwelling. Four of these are during the local summer on the eastern side of a semi-permanent anticyclone on eastern sides of northern and southern mid-latitudes of the Pacifica and the Atlantic. The fifth is during the SW monsoon in the Indian Ocean. For all five of these locations, the deep fog occurrence is at maximum during the upwelling season, with the greatest occurrences concentrated along the coast and isolated over the SST minimum. For the five coastal fog maxima, the greatest and longest duration occurrence along coast occurrence is associated with the coldest sea surface temperature and longest along coast occurrence, which is along N. California- S. Oregon. In contrast, the lowest occurrence of fog and the least along coast occurrence is associated with the warmest sea surface temperatures and least along coast occurrence along the SE Arabian Peninsula. The remaining three zones, Peru-Chile, NW Africa, and SW Africa are between the two extremes in fog occurrence, along coast coverage and sea surface temperature. Peru-Chile is more complex than the others as the Peru upwelling and fog appears the more dominant although ship observations are sparse along Chile.

Heavy Drinking on College Campuses: No Reason to Change Minimum Legal Drinking Age of 21

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Saylor, Drew K.

2011-01-01

The recent Amethyst Initiative argues that a minimum legal drinking age (MLDA) of 21 has created a culture of heavy alcohol use on college campuses by making drinking clandestine and extreme. This group and others argue that lowering the MLDA will reduce the problem of "binge drinking" on college campuses. However, such a policy change would…

Do Atmospheric Rivers explain the extreme precipitation events over East Asia?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dairaku, K.; Nayak, S.

2017-12-01

Extreme precipitation events are now of serious concern due to their damaging societal impacts over last few decades. Thus, climate indices are widely used to identify and quantify variability and changes in particular aspects of the climate system, especially when considering extremes. In our study, we focus on few climate indices of annual precipitation extremes for the period 1979-2013 over East Asia to discuss some straightforward information and interpretation of certain aspects of extreme precipitation events that occur over the region. To do so, we first discuss different percentiles of precipitation and maximum length of wet spell with different thresholds from a regional climate model (NRAMS) simulation at 20km. Results indicate that the 99 percentile of precipitation events correspond to about 80mm/d over few regions of East Asia during 1979-2013 and maximum length of wet spell with minimum 20mm precipitation corresponds to about 10days (Figure 1). We then linked the extreme precipitation events with the intense moisture transport events associated with atmospheric rivers (ARs). The ARs are identified by computing the vertically integrated horizontal water vapor transport (IVT) between 1000hpa and 300hpa with IVT ≥ 250 kg/m/s and 2000 km minimum long. With this threshold and condition (set by previous research), our results indicate that some extreme propitiation events are associated with some ARs over East Asia, while some events are not associated with any ARs. Similarly, some ARs are associated with some extreme precipitation events, while some ARs are not associated with any events. Since the ARs are sensitive to the threshold and condition depending on region, so we will analyze the characteristics of ARs (frequency, duration, and annual variability) with different thresholds and discuss their relationship with extreme precipitation events over East Asia.

Interception in three dimensions - An energy formulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rajan, N.; Ardema, M. D.

1983-01-01

The problem of minimum-time interception of a target flying in three dimensional space is analyzed with the interceptor aircraft modeled through energy-state approximation. A coordinate transformation that uncouples the interceptor's extremals from the target motion in an open-loop sense is introduced, and the necessary conditions for optimality and the optimal controls are derived. Example extremals are shown.

The National Integrated Heat Health Information System (NIHHIS) as a Learning System for Extreme Heat: Evolving Future Resilience from Present Climate Extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, H.; Trtanj, J.; Pulwarty, R. S.; Higgins, W.

2016-12-01

There is presently no consensus indicator for the effect of extreme heat on human health. At the early warning timescale, a variety of approaches to setting temperature thresholds (minimum, maximum, time-lagged) or more complex approaches (Heat Index, Thermal Comfort, etc...) for issuing alerts and warnings have been recommended by literature and implemented, leading to much heterogeneity. At longer timescales, efforts have been made to quantify potential future health outcomes using climate projections, but nonstationarity of the climate system, economy, and demography may invalidate many of the assumptions which were necessarily made in these studies. Furthermore, in our pursuit of developing the best models and indicators to represent the impacts of climate extremes, perhaps we have not paid enough attention to what makes them policy-relevant, responsive to changing assumptions, and targeted at elements that can actually be predicted. In response to this concern, a comprehensive approach to improving the impactfulness of these indicators is underway as part of the National Integrated Heat Health Information System (NIHHIS), which was initiated by NOAA and CDC, but has grown to include many other federal agency and non-governmental partners. NIHHIS is a framework that integrates what we know about extreme heat and health outcomes within a learning system - simultaneously informing early warning and long-term risk reduction prior to, during, and while recovering from extreme heat events. NIHHIS develops impactful evolutionary responses to climate extremes. Through ongoing regional engagements, we are applying the lessons of impact modeling studies to create learning systems in the Southwest, Northeast, Midwest, and soon other regions of the U.S. This session will provide a view of this process as it has been carried out in the Southwest region - focused on the transboundary (US-Mexico) region around El Paso, Texas, and the NIHHIS approach to indicators overall.

A vulnerability tool for adapting water and aquatic resources to climate change and extremes on the Shoshone National Forest, Wyoming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rice, J.; Joyce, L. A.; Armel, B.; Bevenger, G.; Zubic, R.

2011-12-01

Climate change introduces a significant challenge for land managers and decision makers managing the natural resources that provide many benefits from forests. These benefits include water for urban and agricultural uses, wildlife habitat, erosion and climate control, aquifer recharge, stream flows regulation, water temperature regulation, and cultural services such as outdoor recreation and aesthetic enjoyment. The Forest Service has responded to this challenge by developing a national strategy for responding to climate change (the National Roadmap for Responding to Climate Change, July 2010). In concert with this national strategy, the Forest Service's Westwide Climate Initiative has conducted 4 case studies on individual Forests in the western U.S to develop climate adaptation tools. Western National Forests are particularly vulnerable to climate change as they have high-mountain topography, diversity in climate and vegetation, large areas of water limited ecosystems, and increasing urbanization. Information about the vulnerability and capacity of resources to adapt to climate change and extremes is lacking. There is an urgent need to provide customized tools and synthesized local scale information about the impacts to resources from future climate change and extremes, as well as develop science based adaptation options and strategies in National Forest management and planning. The case study on the Shoshone National Forest has aligned its objectives with management needs by developing a climate extreme vulnerability tool that guides adaptation options development. The vulnerability tool determines the likely degree to which native Yellowstone cutthroat trout and water availability are susceptible to, or unable to cope with adverse effects of climate change extremes. We spatially categorize vulnerability for water and native trout resources using exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity indicators that use minimum and maximum climate and GIS data. Results show that the vulnerability of water availability may increase in areas that have less storage and become more dominated by rain instead of snow. Native trout habitat was found to improve in some areas from warmer temperatures suggesting future refugia habitat may need to be a focus of conservation efforts. The climate extreme vulnerability tool provides Forest Service resource managers science based information that guides adaptation strategy development; prioritize conservation projects; guides monitoring efforts, and helps promote more resilient ecosystems undergoing the effects of climate change.

Impact of winter cooling on the northern part of the Black Sea.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Savchenko, Anatolii

2016-07-01

Climate change in the future may have a negative impact on many countries due to the increasing surface temperature and sea level rise. Probably, unprecedented largest positive trend of surface temperature, which observed since the mid XX century, has associated with increasing human activities around the world. Moreover, this warming will continue in this century, and at the end of the XXI century will be 2 - 5 ºC. Thus, investigation and monitoring of current climate are very important and necessary tasks. Regional model data (downscaling) and satellite data are used, because of underdeveloped network of meteorological stations in the northern part of the Black Sea region. Experiment of downscaling was carried out for the Black Sea region with a high spatial resolution of 0.22° x 0.22° for 1958 - 2007(daily values). For the Black Sea were also used satellite data of sea surface temperature(SST) from MyOcean-2 Project, which CNR(Rome) has reprocessed Pathfinder V5.2 (PFV52) AVHRR data over period 1981 - 2012 with daily gap-free maps (L4) at the original PFV52 resolution at 0.04° x 0.04°. Correlation between satellite SST and surface temperature from regional model climate are amounted 0,99. Thus, surface temperature of model and satellite data for the Black Sea is much correlated between yourself. The following integral characteristics of the Black Sea are referred to the area of sea limited by the 44 - 47º N and 28 - 34º E. Maximum cooling of the north-western part of the Black Sea in winter is occurs after invasion of cold air across the northern border of the basin. In addition, this water area is also interesting in the presence of her huge oil and gas reserves, as well as the construction of liquefied gas (crude oil) terminals. The maximum values of total heat flux (sensible + latent heat fluxes= Q) corresponding to the minimum values of SST are observed during the periods of the negative phase of the NAO. Besides, fluxes with extreme days P (Q) = 95% (the number of which is 5% of the total number of winter days) contribute ≈ 16 - 18% of the total heat flux during the winter, and with P (Q) = 90% - approximately 30%. Typical synoptic situation of extreme winter cooling P (Q) = 95% is presence of anticyclone in the district of Carpathian Mountains. North-easterly flow of cold air at high velocities near-surface wind leads to extreme total heat flux and decreasing SST. Satellite images of clouds well illustrate such cases as, for example, cold air invasion to the Black Sea area on January 23, 2006 (Satellite TERRA). Because of increase of risk associated with climate change, this topic is particularly relevant for the marine area, which is subjected to strong weathering during extreme events in winter. The monitoring of this area will allow reducing the damage from extreme natural events in the future.

The Influence of Recurrent Modes of Climate Variability on the Occurrence of Monthly Temperature Extremes Over South America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loikith, Paul C.; Detzer, Judah; Mechoso, Carlos R.; Lee, Huikyo; Barkhordarian, Armineh

2017-10-01

The associations between extreme temperature months and four prominent modes of recurrent climate variability are examined over South America. Associations are computed as the percent of extreme temperature months concurrent with the upper and lower quartiles of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Atlantic Niño, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index distributions, stratified by season. The relationship is strongest for ENSO, with nearly every extreme temperature month concurrent with the upper or lower quartiles of its distribution in portions of northwestern South America during some seasons. The likelihood of extreme warm temperatures is enhanced over parts of northern South America when the Atlantic Niño index is in the upper quartile, while cold extremes are often association with the lowest quartile. Concurrent precipitation anomalies may contribute to these relations. The PDO shows weak associations during December, January, and February, while in June, July, and August its relationship with extreme warm temperatures closely matches that of ENSO. This may be due to the positive relationship between the PDO and ENSO, rather than the PDO acting as an independent physical mechanism. Over Patagonia, the SAM is highly influential during spring and fall, with warm and cold extremes being associated with positive and negative phases of the SAM, respectively. Composites of sea level pressure anomalies for extreme temperature months over Patagonia suggest an important role of local synoptic scale weather variability in addition to a favorable SAM for the occurrence of these extremes.

[Distribution characteristics of dissolved oxygen and its affecting factors in the Pearl River Estuary during the summer of the extremely drought hydrological year 2011].

PubMed

Ye, Feng; Huang, Xiao-ping; Shi, Zhen; Liu, Qing-xi

2013-05-01

More and more attention has focused on assessing impacts of extreme hydrologic events on estuarine ecosystem under the background of climate change. Based on a summer cruise conducted in the Pearl River Estuary in 2011 (extreme drought event), we have investigated the spatial distribution of dissolved oxygen (DO) and its relationships to water column stability, nutrient concentrations, and organic matter; besides, the major reason which caused the oxygen depletion was discussed. Under the influence of the extreme drought event, low bottom water dissolved oxygen was apparent in regions characterized by great depths, with an oxygen minimum value of 1.38 mg x L(-1). Statistical analysis shows significant correlations among deltaDO, deltaT, deltaS and deltaPOC. A comparison was conducted to show the mechanisms of oxygen depletion during the summers of 1999, 2009 and 2011, respectively. The result indicates that prolonged residence time of water due to the extremely low discharge and the subsequently decomposition of organic substance are major factors causing the formation of hypoxia during the summer drought in 2011. Despite the changing nutrient and organic matter regime in the Pearl River Estuary, there was no apparent trend in the minimum values of DO over the past 2 decades.

Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation Patterns Associated with Temperature Extremes as a Basis for Model Evaluation: Methodological Overview and Results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loikith, P. C.; Broccoli, A. J.; Waliser, D. E.; Lintner, B. R.; Neelin, J. D.

2015-12-01

Anomalous large-scale circulation patterns often play a key role in the occurrence of temperature extremes. For example, large-scale circulation can drive horizontal temperature advection or influence local processes that lead to extreme temperatures, such as by inhibiting moderating sea breezes, promoting downslope adiabatic warming, and affecting the development of cloud cover. Additionally, large-scale circulation can influence the shape of temperature distribution tails, with important implications for the magnitude of future changes in extremes. As a result of the prominent role these patterns play in the occurrence and character of extremes, the way in which temperature extremes change in the future will be highly influenced by if and how these patterns change. It is therefore critical to identify and understand the key patterns associated with extremes at local to regional scales in the current climate and to use this foundation as a target for climate model validation. This presentation provides an overview of recent and ongoing work aimed at developing and applying novel approaches to identifying and describing the large-scale circulation patterns associated with temperature extremes in observations and using this foundation to evaluate state-of-the-art global and regional climate models. Emphasis is given to anomalies in sea level pressure and 500 hPa geopotential height over North America using several methods to identify circulation patterns, including self-organizing maps and composite analysis. Overall, evaluation results suggest that models are able to reproduce observed patterns associated with temperature extremes with reasonable fidelity in many cases. Model skill is often highest when and where synoptic-scale processes are the dominant mechanisms for extremes, and lower where sub-grid scale processes (such as those related to topography) are important. Where model skill in reproducing these patterns is high, it can be inferred that extremes are being simulated for plausible physical reasons, boosting confidence in future projections of temperature extremes. Conversely, where model skill is identified to be lower, caution should be exercised in interpreting future projections.

A Topside Equatorial Ionospheric Density and Composition Climatology During and After Extreme Solar Minimum

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Klenzing, J. H.; Simoes, F.; Ivanov, S.; Heelis, R. A.; Bilitza, D.; Pfaff, R. F.; Rowland, D. E.

2011-01-01

During the recent solar minimum, solar activity reached the lowest levels observed during the space age. This extremely low solar activity has accompanied a number of unexpected observations in the Earth's ionosphere and thermosphere when compared to previous solar minima. Among these are the fact that the ionosphere is significantly contracted beyond expectations based on empirical models. Climatological altitude profiles of ion density and composition measurements near the magnetic dip equator are constructed from the C/NOFS satellite to characterize the shape of the top side ionosphere during the recent solar minimum and into the new solar cycle. The variation of the profiles with respect to local time, season, and solar activity are compared to the IRI-2007 model. Building on initial results reported by Heelis et al. [2009], here we describe the extent of the contracted ionosphere, which is found to persist throughout 2009. The shape of the ionosphere during 2010 is found to be consistent with observations from previous solar minima.

Topside Equatorial Ionospheric Density and Composition During and After Extreme Solar Minimum

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Klenzing, J.; Simoes, F.; Ivanov, S.; Heelis, R. A.; Bilitza, D.; Pfaff, R.; Rowland, D.

2011-01-01

During the recent solar minimum, solar activity reached the lowest levels observed during the space age. This extremely low solar activity has accompanied a number of unexpected observations in the Earth s ionosphere-thermosphere system when compared to previous solar minima. Among these are the fact that the ionosphere is significantly contracted beyond expectations based on empirical models. Altitude profiles of ion density and composition measurements near the magnetic dip equator are constructed from the Communication/Navigation Outage Forecast System (C/NOFS) satellite to characterize the shape of the topside ionosphere during the recent solar minimum and into the new solar cycle. The variation of the profiles with respect to local time, season, and solar activity are compared to the IRI-2007 model. Building on initial results reported by Heelis et al. (2009), here we describe the extent of the contracted ionosphere, which is found to persist throughout 2009. The shape of the ionosphere during 2010 is found to be consistent with observations from previous solar minima.

Photo-Luminescent Targets in Space

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Maida, James; Kolomenski, Andrei

2017-01-01

Photo-luminescent ("glow in the dark") products have seen a dramatic increase in performance is the last 15 years with the use of a strontium aluminate formulation. Because of this, ISS uses photo-luminescent markers for interior emergency egress guidance. The marker is COTS material composed of strontium aluminate doped with europium, imbedded in PVC and achieves a light emission performance rated at 600/90 (600 mcd at 10 minutes and 90 mcd at 1 hour, 2 mcd is minimum required for human visibility). The ICA goal is to determine this material's effectiveness for use externally on ISS and/or on visiting vehicles, when packaged in Lexan for UV protection. A thermal test was conducted by EC to characterize the luminance emission profile of the material at extreme cold and hot temperatures, such as experienced on ISS.

Microbial diversity of extreme habitats in human homes.

PubMed

Savage, Amy M; Hills, Justin; Driscoll, Katherine; Fergus, Daniel J; Grunden, Amy M; Dunn, Robert R

2016-01-01

High-throughput sequencing techniques have opened up the world of microbial diversity to scientists, and a flurry of studies in the most remote and extreme habitats on earth have begun to elucidate the key roles of microbes in ecosystems with extreme conditions. These same environmental extremes can also be found closer to humans, even in our homes. Here, we used high-throughput sequencing techniques to assess bacterial and archaeal diversity in the extreme environments inside human homes (e.g., dishwashers, hot water heaters, washing machine bleach reservoirs, etc.). We focused on habitats in the home with extreme temperature, pH, and chemical environmental conditions. We found a lower diversity of microbes in these extreme home environments compared to less extreme habitats in the home. However, we were nonetheless able to detect sequences from a relatively diverse array of bacteria and archaea. Habitats with extreme temperatures alone appeared to be able to support a greater diversity of microbes than habitats with extreme pH or extreme chemical environments alone. Microbial diversity was lowest when habitats had both extreme temperature and one of these other extremes. In habitats with both extreme temperatures and extreme pH, taxa with known associations with extreme conditions dominated. Our findings highlight the importance of examining interactive effects of multiple environmental extremes on microbial communities. Inasmuch as taxa from extreme environments can be both beneficial and harmful to humans, our findings also suggest future work to understand both the threats and opportunities posed by the life in these habitats.

Reliability of Sn/Pb and Lead-Free (SnAgCu) Solders of Surface Mounted Miniaturized Passive Components for Extreme Temperature (-185 C to +125 C) Space Missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ramesham, Rajeshuni

2011-01-01

Surface mount electronic package test boards have been assembled using tin/lead (Sn/Pb) and lead-free (Pb-free or SnAgCu or SAC305) solders. The soldered surface mount packages include ball grid arrays (BGA), flat packs, various sizes of passive chip components, etc. They have been optically inspected after assembly and subsequently subjected to extreme temperature thermal cycling to assess their reliability or future deep space, long-term, extreme temperature environmental missions. In this study, the employed temperature range (-185oC to +125oC) covers military specifications (-55oC to +100oC), extreme old Martian (-120oC to +115oC), asteroid Nereus (-180oC to +25oC) and JUNO (-150oC to +120oC) environments. The boards were inspected at room temperature and at various intervals as a function of extreme temperature thermal cycling and bake duration. Electrical resistance measurements made at room temperature are reported and the tests to date have shown some change in resistance as a function of extreme temperature thermal cycling and some showed increase in resistance. However, the change in interconnect resistance becomes more noticeable with increasing number of thermal cycles. Further research work will be carried out to understand the reliability of packages under extreme temperature applications (-185oC to +125oC) via continuously monitoring the daisy chain resistance for BGA, Flat-packs, lead less chip packages, etc. This paper will describe the experimental reliability results of miniaturized passive components (01005, 0201, 0402, 0603, 0805, and 1206) assembled using surface mounting processes with tin-lead and lead-free solder alloys under extreme temperature environments.

Reliability of Sn/Pb and lead-free (SnAgCu) solders of surface mounted miniaturized passive components for extreme temperature (-185°C to +125°C) space missions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramesham, Rajeshuni

2011-02-01

Surface mount electronic package test boards have been assembled using tin/lead (Sn/Pb) and lead-free (Pb-free or SnAgCu or SAC305) solders. The soldered surface mount packages include ball grid arrays (BGA), flat packs, various sizes of passive chip components, etc. They have been optically inspected after assembly and subsequently subjected to extreme temperature thermal cycling to assess their reliability for future deep space, long-term, extreme temperature environmental missions. In this study, the employed temperature range (-185°C to +125°C) covers military specifications (-55°C to +100°C), extreme cold Martian (-120°C to +115°C), asteroid Nereus (-180°C to +25°C) and JUNO (-150°C to +120°C) environments. The boards were inspected at room temperature and at various intervals as a function of extreme temperature thermal cycling and bake duration. Electrical resistance measurements made at room temperature are reported and the tests to date have shown some change in resistance as a function of extreme temperature thermal cycling and some showed increase in resistance. However, the change in interconnect resistance becomes more noticeable with increasing number of thermal cycles. Further research work will be carried out to understand the reliability of packages under extreme temperature applications (-185°C to +125°C) via continuously monitoring the daisy chain resistance for BGA, Flat-packs, lead less chip packages, etc. This paper will describe the experimental reliability results of miniaturized passive components (01005, 0201, 0402, 0603, 0805, and 1206) assembled using surface mounting processes with tin-lead and lead-free solder alloys under extreme temperature environments.

Development of a Temperature Sensor for Jet Engine and Space Missions Environments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Patterson, Richard L.; Hammoud, Ahmad; Culley, Dennis E.; Elbuluk, Malik

2008-01-01

Electronic systems in aerospace and in space exploration missions are expected to encounter extreme temperatures and wide thermal swings. To address the needs for extreme temperature electronics, research efforts exist at the NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) to develop and evaluate electronics for extreme temperature operations, and to establish their reliability under extreme temperature operation and thermal cycling; conditions that are typical of both the aerospace and space environments. These efforts are supported by the NASA Fundamental Aeronautics/Subsonic Fixed Wing Program and by the NASA Electronic Parts and Packaging (NEPP) Program. This work reports on the results obtained on the development of a temperature sensor geared for use in harsh environments.

Increasing Patient Safety by Closing the Sterile Production Gap-Part 2. Implementation.

PubMed

Agalloco, James P

2017-01-01

Terminal sterilization is considered the preferred means for the production of sterile drug products because it affords enhanced safety for the patient as the formulation is filled into its final container, sealed, and sterilized. Despite the obvious patient benefits, the use of terminal sterilization is artificially constrained by unreasonable expectations for the minimum time-temperature process to be used. The core misunderstanding with terminal sterilization is a fixation that destruction of a high concentration of a resistant biological indicator is required. The origin of this misconception is unclear, but it has resulted in sterilization conditions that are extremely harsh (15 min at 121 °C, of F 0 >8 min), which limit the use of terminal sterilization to extremely heat-stable formulations. These articles outline the artificial nature of the process constraints and describe a scientifically sound means to expand the use of terminal sterilization by identifying the correct process goal-the destruction of the bioburden present in the container prior to sterilization. Recognition that the true intention is bioburden destruction in routine products allows for the use of reduced conditions (lower temperatures, shorter process dwell, or both) without added patient risk. By focusing attention on the correct process target, lower time-temperature conditions can be used to expand the use of terminal sterilization to products unable to withstand the harsh conditions that have been mistakenly applied. The first article provides the background, and describes the benefits to patient, producer, and regulator. The second article includes validation and operational advice that can be used in the implementation. LAY ABSTRACT: Terminal sterilization is considered the preferred means for the production of sterile drug products because it affords enhanced safety for the patient as the formulation is filled into its final container, sealed, and sterilized. Despite the obvious patient benefits, the use of terminal sterilization is artificially constrained by unreasonable expectations for the minimum time-temperature process to be used. These articles outline the artificial nature of the process constraints and describe a scientifically sound means to expand the use of terminal sterilization by identifying the correct process goal-the destruction of the bioburden present in the container prior to sterilization. By focusing attention on the correct process target, lower time-temperature conditions can be used to expand the use of terminal sterilization to products unable to withstand the harsh conditions that have been mistakenly applied. The first article provides the background, and describes the benefits to patient, producer, and regulator. The article manuscript includes validation and operational advice that can be used in the implementation. © PDA, Inc. 2017.

Climate change impacts on rainfall and temperature in sugarcane growing Upper Gangetic Plains of India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verma, Ram Ratan; Srivastava, Tapendra Kumar; Singh, Pushpa

2018-01-01

Assessment of variability in climate extremes is crucial for managing their aftermath on crops. Sugarcane (Saccharum officinarum L.), a major C4 crop, dominates the Upper Gangetic Plain (UGP) in India and is vulnerable to both direct and indirect effects of changes in temperature and rainfall. The present study was taken up to assess the weekly, monthly, seasonal, and annual trends of rainfall and temperature variability during the period 1956-2015 (60 years) for envisaging the probabilities of different levels of rainfall suitable for sugarcane in UGP in the present climate scenario. The analysis revealed that 87% of total annual rainfall was received during southwest monsoon months (June-September) while post-monsoon (October to February) and pre-monsoon months (March-May) accounted for only 9.4 and 3.6%, respectively. There was a decline in both monthly and annual normal rainfall during the period 1986-2015 as compared to 1956-1985, and an annual rainfall deficiency of 205.3 mm was recorded. Maximum monthly normal rainfall deficiencies of 52.8, 84.2, and 54.0 mm were recorded during the months of July, August, and September, respectively, while a minimum rainfall deficiency of 2.2 mm was observed in November. There was a decline by 196.3 mm in seasonal normal rainfall during June-September (kharif). The initial probability of a week going dry was higher (> 70%) from the 1st to the 25th week; however, standard meteorological weeks (SMW) 26 to 37 had more than 50% probability of going wet. The normal annual maximum temperature (Tmax) decreased by 0.4 °C while normal annual minimum temperatures (Tmin) increased by 0.21 °C. Analysis showed that there was an increase in frequency of drought from 1986 onwards in the zone and a monsoon rainfall deficit by about 21.25% during June-September which coincided with tillering and grand growth stage of sugarcane. The imposed drought during the growth and elongation phase is emerging as a major constraint in realizing high cane productivity in the zone. Strategies for mitigating the negative impacts of rainfall and temperature variability on sugarcane productivity through improvement in existing adaptation strategies are proposed.

Cooling Characteristics of the V-1650-7 Engine. 1; Coolant-Flow Distribution, Cylinder Temperatures, and Heat Rejections at Typical Operating Conditions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Povolny, John H.; Bogdan, Louis J.

1947-01-01

An investigation was conducted to determine the coolant-flow distribu tion, the cylinder temperatures, and the heat rejections of the V-165 0-7 engine . The tests were run a t several power levels varying from minimum fuel consumption to war emergency power and at each power l evel the coolant flows corresponded to the extremes of those likely t o be encountered in typical airplane installations, A mixture of 30-p ercent ethylene glycol and 70-percent water was used as the coolant. The temperature of each cylinder was measured between the exhaust val ves, between the intake valves, in the center of the head, on the exh aust-valve guide, at the top of the barrel on the exhaust side, and o n each exhaust spark-plug gasket. For an increase in engine power fro m 628 to approximately 1700 brake horsepower the average temperature for the cylinder heads between the exhaust valves increased from 437 deg to 517 deg F, the engine coolant heat rejection increased from 12 ,600 to 22,700 Btu. per minute, the oil heat rejection increased from 1030 to 4600 Btu per minute, and the aftercooler-coolant heat reject ion increased from 450 to 3500 Btu -per minute.

Historical channel-planform change of the Little Colorado River near Winslow, Arizona

USGS Publications Warehouse

Block, Debra L.

2014-01-01

This study evaluates channel-planform adjustment on an alluvial reach of the Little Colorado River and documents the geomorphic evolution of the channel through an analysis of aerial photographs and orthophotographs for the period 1936–2010. The Little Colorado River has adjusted to the effects of an extreme flood in 1923 and a subsequent decline in peak discharge and mean annual flow by channel narrowing: the channel width and area of the river have decreased by approximately 90 percent over the study period. Although deposition historically exceeds erosion, lateral migration exacerbates localized erosion, particularly near hydraulic controls. Despite repeated cutoff and avulsion, the Little Colorado River has steadily increased in length and sinuosity over a period of 74 years. Changes in temperature and precipitation are likely affecting the discharge of the Little Colorado River near and downstream of Winslow, Ariz. Nonparametric methods of trend detection determine whether the probability distribution of temperature, precipitation, and peak streamflow has changed over time. Time-series plots of temperature and precipitation show statistically significant trends at the 99-percent-confidence level when evaluated with a Mann-Kendall test. An increasing trend was indicated in mean daily minimum air temperature (Tmin), whereas decreasing trends were indicated in both annual precipitation (Pann) and monsoon-seasonal precipitation (Pjas), as well as in peak discharge.

Estimating the extreme low-temperature event using nonparametric methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Silva, Anisha

This thesis presents a new method of estimating the one-in-N low temperature threshold using a non-parametric statistical method called kernel density estimation applied to daily average wind-adjusted temperatures. We apply our One-in-N Algorithm to local gas distribution companies (LDCs), as they have to forecast the daily natural gas needs of their consumers. In winter, demand for natural gas is high. Extreme low temperature events are not directly related to an LDCs gas demand forecasting, but knowledge of extreme low temperatures is important to ensure that an LDC has enough capacity to meet customer demands when extreme low temperatures are experienced. We present a detailed explanation of our One-in-N Algorithm and compare it to the methods using the generalized extreme value distribution, the normal distribution, and the variance-weighted composite distribution. We show that our One-in-N Algorithm estimates the one-in- N low temperature threshold more accurately than the methods using the generalized extreme value distribution, the normal distribution, and the variance-weighted composite distribution according to root mean square error (RMSE) measure at a 5% level of significance. The One-in- N Algorithm is tested by counting the number of times the daily average wind-adjusted temperature is less than or equal to the one-in- N low temperature threshold.

PROBABILITIES OF TEMPERATURE EXTREMES IN THE U.S.

EPA Science Inventory

The model Temperature Extremes Version 1.0 provides the capability to estimate the probability, for 332 locations in the 50 U.S. states, that an extreme temperature will occur for one or more consecutive days and/or for any number of days in a given month or season, based on stat...

[Thermal tolerance, diel variation of body temperature, and thermal dependence of locomotor performance of hatchling soft-shelled turtles, Trionyx sinensis].

PubMed

Sun, Pingyue; Xu, Xiaoyin; Chen, Huili; Ji, Xiang

2002-09-01

The thermal tolerance, body temperature, and influence of temperature on locomotor performance of hatchling soft-shelled turtles (Trionyx sinensis) were studied under dry and wet conditions, and the selected body temperature of hatchlings was 28.0 and 30.3 degrees C, respectively. Under wet condition, the critical thermal maximum and minimum averaged 40.9 and 7.8 degrees C, respectively. In the environments without thermal gradients, the diel variation of body temperature was highly consistent with the variation of both air and water temperatures, and the body temperature was more directly affected by water temperature than by air temperature, which implied that the physiological thermoregulation of hatchling T. sinensis was very weak. In the environments with thermal gradients, hatchling turtles could maintain relatively high and constant body temperatures, primarily through behavioral thermoregulation. The locomotor performance of hatchling turtles was highly dependent on their body temperature. Within a certain range, the locomotor performance increased with increasing body temperature. In our study, the optimal body temperature for locomotor performance was 31.5 degrees C, under which, the maximum continuous running distance, running distance per minute, and number of stops per minute averaged 1.87 m, 4.92 m.min-1, and 6.2 times.min-1, respectively. The correspondent values at 33.0 degrees C averaged 1.30 m, 4.28 m.min-1, and 7.7 times.min-1, respectively, which indicated that the locomotor performance of hatchling turtles was impaired at 33.0 degrees C. Therefore, extremely high body temperatures might have an adverse effect on locomotor performance of hatchling turtles.

Structural characterization and gas reactions of small metal particles by high-resolution TEM and TED

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Heinemann, K.

1985-01-01

The interaction of 100 and 200 keV electron beams with amorphous alumina, titania, and aluminum nitride substrates and nanometer-size palladium particulate deposits was investigated for the two extreme cases of (1) large-area electron-beam flash-heating and (2) small-area high-intensity electron-beam irradiation. The former simulates a short-term heating effect with minimum electron irradiation exposure, the latter simulates high-dosage irradiation with minimum heating effect. All alumina and titania samples responded to the flash-heating treatment with significant recrystallization. However, the size, crystal structure, shape, and orientation of the grains depended on the type and thickness of the films and the thickness of the Pd deposit. High-dosage electron irradiation also readily crystallized the alumina substrate films but did not affect the titania films. The alumina recrystallization products were usually either all in the alpha phase, or they were a mixture of small grains in a number of low-temperature phases including gamma, delta, kappa, beta, theta-alumina. Palladium deposits reacted heavily with the alumina substrates during either treatment, but they were very little effected when supported on titania. Both treatments had the same, less prominent localized crystallization effect on aluminum nitride films.

Rising sea levels will reduce extreme temperature variations in tide-dominated reef habitats.

PubMed

Lowe, Ryan Joseph; Pivan, Xavier; Falter, James; Symonds, Graham; Gruber, Renee

2016-08-01

Temperatures within shallow reefs often differ substantially from those in the surrounding ocean; therefore, predicting future patterns of thermal stresses and bleaching at the scale of reefs depends on accurately predicting reef heat budgets. We present a new framework for quantifying how tidal and solar heating cycles interact with reef morphology to control diurnal temperature extremes within shallow, tidally forced reefs. Using data from northwestern Australia, we construct a heat budget model to investigate how frequency differences between the dominant lunar semidiurnal tide and diurnal solar cycle drive ~15-day modulations in diurnal temperature extremes. The model is extended to show how reefs with tidal amplitudes comparable to their depth, relative to mean sea level, tend to experience the largest temperature extremes globally. As a consequence, we reveal how even a modest sea level rise can substantially reduce temperature extremes within tide-dominated reefs, thereby partially offsetting the local effects of future ocean warming.

Correlated evolution of thermal niches and functional physiology in tropical freshwater fishes.

PubMed

Culumber, Zachary W; Tobler, Michael

2018-05-01

The role of ecology in phenotypic and species diversification is widely documented. Nonetheless, numerous nonadaptive processes can shape realized niches and phenotypic variation in natural populations, complicating inferences about adaptive evolution at macroevolutionary scales. We tested for evolved differences in thermal tolerances and their association with the realized thermal niche (including metrics describing diurnal and seasonal patterns of temperature extremes and variability) across a genus of tropical freshwater fishes reared in a standardized environment. There was limited evolution along the thermal niche axis associated with variation in maximum temperature and in upper thermal limits. In contrast, there was considerable diversification along the first major axis of the thermal niche associated with minimum temperatures and in lower thermal limits. Across our adaptive landscape analyses, 70% of species exhibited evidence of divergence in thermal niches. Most importantly, the first two major axes of thermal niche variation were significantly correlated with variation in lower thermal limits. Our results indicate adaptation to divergent thermal niches and adaptive evolution of related functional traits, and highlight the importance of divergence in lower thermal limits for the evolution of tropical biodiversity. © 2018 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2018 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

Coherent variability between seasonal temperatures and rainfalls in the Iberian Peninsula, 1951-2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodrigo, F. S.

2018-02-01

In this work trends of seasonal mean of daily minimum (TN), maximum (TX), mean (TM) temperatures, daily range of temperature (DTR), and total seasonal rainfall (R) in 35 Iberian stations since mid-twentieth century are studied. The interest is focused on the relationships between temperature variables and rainfall, taking into account the correlation coefficients between R and the temperature variables. The negative link between rainfall and temperatures is detected in the four seasons of the year, except in western stations in winter for TN and TM, and in autumn for TN (for this variable a certain annual cycle is detected, with predominance of positive correlation in winter, negative in spring and summer, and the autumn as transition season). The role of cloud cover is confirmed in those stations with total cloud cover data. Using an average peninsular series, the relationship between nighttime temperature and rainfall related to long wave radiation is confirmed for the four seasons of the year, although in spring and summer has minor importance than in the cold half year. The relationships between R, TN, and TX are in general terms stable after a moving correlation analysis, although the negative correlation between TX and R seems be weakened in spring and autumn and reinforced in summer. The role of convective precipitation in autumn is discussed. The analysis of combined extreme indices in four representative stations shows an increase of warm and dry days, and a decrease of cold and wet days.

Cross-scale modeling of surface temperature and tree seedling establishment inmountain landscapes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dingman, John; Sweet, Lynn C.; McCullough, Ian M.; Davis, Frank W.; Flint, Alan L.; Franklin, Janet; Flint, Lorraine E.

2013-01-01

Abstract: Introduction: Estimating surface temperature from above-ground field measurements is important for understanding the complex landscape patterns of plant seedling survival and establishment, processes which occur at heights of only several centimeters. Currently, future climate models predict temperature at 2 m above ground, leaving ground-surface microclimate not well characterized. Methods: Using a network of field temperature sensors and climate models, a ground-surface temperature method was used to estimate microclimate variability of minimum and maximum temperature. Temperature lapse rates were derived from field temperature sensors and distributed across the landscape capturing differences in solar radiation and cold air drainages modeled at a 30-m spatial resolution. Results: The surface temperature estimation method used for this analysis successfully estimated minimum surface temperatures on north-facing, south-facing, valley, and ridgeline topographic settings, and when compared to measured temperatures yielded an R2 of 0.88, 0.80, 0.88, and 0.80, respectively. Maximum surface temperatures generally had slightly more spatial variability than minimum surface temperatures, resulting in R2 values of 0.86, 0.77, 0.72, and 0.79 for north-facing, south-facing, valley, and ridgeline topographic settings. Quasi-Poisson regressions predicting recruitment of Quercus kelloggii (black oak) seedlings from temperature variables were significantly improved using these estimates of surface temperature compared to air temperature modeled at 2 m. Conclusion: Predicting minimum and maximum ground-surface temperatures using a downscaled climate model coupled with temperature lapse rates estimated from field measurements provides a method for modeling temperature effects on plant recruitment. Such methods could be applied to improve projections of species’ range shifts under climate change. Areas of complex topography can provide intricate microclimates that may allow species to redistribute locally as climate changes.

Predictions of thermal buckling strengths of hypersonic aircraft sandwich panels using minimum potential energy and finite element methods

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ko, William L.

1995-01-01

Thermal buckling characteristics of hypersonic aircraft sandwich panels of various aspect ratios were investigated. The panel is fastened at its four edges to the substructures under four different edge conditions and is subjected to uniform temperature loading. Minimum potential energy theory and finite element methods were used to calculate the panel buckling temperatures. The two methods gave fairly close buckling temperatures. However, the finite element method gave slightly lower buckling temperatures than those given by the minimum potential energy theory. The reasons for this slight discrepancy in eigensolutions are discussed in detail. In addition, the effect of eigenshifting on the eigenvalue convergence rate is discussed.

Weed Diversity Affects Soybean and Maize Yield in a Long Term Experiment in Michigan, USA.

PubMed

Ferrero, Rosana; Lima, Mauricio; Davis, Adam S; Gonzalez-Andujar, Jose L

2017-01-01

Managing production environments in ways that promote weed community diversity may enhance both crop production and the development of a more sustainable agriculture. This study analyzed data of productivity of maize (corn) and soybean in plots in the Main Cropping System Experiment (MCSE) at the W. K. Kellogg Biological Station Long-Term Ecological Research (KBS-LTER) in Michigan, USA, from 1996 to 2011. We used models derived from population ecology to explore how weed diversity, temperature, and precipitation interact with crop yields. Using three types of models that considered internal and external (climate and weeds) factors, with additive or non-linear variants, we found that changes in weed diversity were associated with changes in rates of crop yield increase over time for both maize and soybeans. The intrinsic capacity for soybean yield increase in response to the environment was greater under more diverse weed communities. Soybean production risks were greatest in the least weed diverse systems, in which each weed species lost was associated with progressively greater crop yield losses. Managing for weed community diversity, while suppressing dominant, highly competitive weeds, may be a helpful strategy for supporting long term increases in soybean productivity. In maize, there was a negative and non-additive response of yields to the interaction between weed diversity and minimum air temperatures. When cold temperatures constrained potential maize productivity through limited resources, negative interactions with weed diversity became more pronounced. We suggest that: (1) maize was less competitive in cold years allowing higher weed diversity and the dominance of some weed species; or (2) that cold years resulted in increased weed richness and prevalence of competitive weeds, thus reducing crop yields. Therefore, we propose to control dominant weed species especially in the years of low yield and extreme minimum temperatures to improve maize yields. Results of our study indicate that through the proactive management of weed diversity, it may be possible to promote both high productivity of crops and environmental sustainability.

Weed Diversity Affects Soybean and Maize Yield in a Long Term Experiment in Michigan, USA

PubMed Central

Ferrero, Rosana; Lima, Mauricio; Davis, Adam S.; Gonzalez-Andujar, Jose L.

2017-01-01

Managing production environments in ways that promote weed community diversity may enhance both crop production and the development of a more sustainable agriculture. This study analyzed data of productivity of maize (corn) and soybean in plots in the Main Cropping System Experiment (MCSE) at the W. K. Kellogg Biological Station Long-Term Ecological Research (KBS-LTER) in Michigan, USA, from 1996 to 2011. We used models derived from population ecology to explore how weed diversity, temperature, and precipitation interact with crop yields. Using three types of models that considered internal and external (climate and weeds) factors, with additive or non-linear variants, we found that changes in weed diversity were associated with changes in rates of crop yield increase over time for both maize and soybeans. The intrinsic capacity for soybean yield increase in response to the environment was greater under more diverse weed communities. Soybean production risks were greatest in the least weed diverse systems, in which each weed species lost was associated with progressively greater crop yield losses. Managing for weed community diversity, while suppressing dominant, highly competitive weeds, may be a helpful strategy for supporting long term increases in soybean productivity. In maize, there was a negative and non-additive response of yields to the interaction between weed diversity and minimum air temperatures. When cold temperatures constrained potential maize productivity through limited resources, negative interactions with weed diversity became more pronounced. We suggest that: (1) maize was less competitive in cold years allowing higher weed diversity and the dominance of some weed species; or (2) that cold years resulted in increased weed richness and prevalence of competitive weeds, thus reducing crop yields. Therefore, we propose to control dominant weed species especially in the years of low yield and extreme minimum temperatures to improve maize yields. Results of our study indicate that through the proactive management of weed diversity, it may be possible to promote both high productivity of crops and environmental sustainability. PMID:28286509

Silicon-On-Insulator (SOI) Devices and Mixed-Signal Circuits for Extreme Temperature Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Patterson, Richard; Hammoud, Ahmad; Elbuluk, Malik

2008-01-01

Electronic systems in planetary exploration missions and in aerospace applications are expected to encounter extreme temperatures and wide thermal swings in their operational environments. Electronics designed for such applications must, therefore, be able to withstand exposure to extreme temperatures and to perform properly for the duration of the missions. Electronic parts based on silicon-on-insulator (SOI) technology are known, based on device structure, to provide faster switching, consume less power, and offer better radiation-tolerance compared to their silicon counterparts. They also exhibit reduced current leakage and are often tailored for high temperature operation. However, little is known about their performance at low temperature. The performance of several SOI devices and mixed-signal circuits was determined under extreme temperatures, cold-restart, and thermal cycling. The investigations were carried out to establish a baseline on the functionality and to determine suitability of these devices for use in space exploration missions under extreme temperatures. The experimental results obtained on selected SOI devices are presented and discussed in this paper.

Diffractive element in extreme-UV lithography condenser

DOEpatents

Sweatt, William C.; Ray-Chaudhuri, Avijit

2001-01-01

Condensers having a mirror with a diffraction grating in projection lithography using extreme ultra-violet significantly enhances critical dimension control. The diffraction grating has the effect of smoothing the illumination at the camera's entrance pupil with minimum light loss. Modeling suggests that critical dimension control for 100 nm features can be improved from 3 nm to less than about 0.5 nm.

Diffractive element in extreme-UV lithography condenser

DOEpatents

Sweatt, William C.; Ray-Chaudhurl, Avijit K.

2000-01-01

Condensers having a mirror with a diffraction grating in projection lithography using extreme ultra-violet significantly enhances critical dimension control. The diffraction grating has the effect of smoothing the illumination at the camera's entrance pupil with minimum light loss. Modeling suggests that critical dimension control for 100 nm features can be improved from 3 nm to less than about 0.5 nm.

The role of humidity in determining scenarios of perceived temperature extremes in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scoccimarro, Enrico; Fogli, Pier Giuseppe; Gualdi, Silvio

2017-11-01

An increase of the 2 m temperature over Europe is expected within the current century. In order to consider health impacts, it is important to evaluate the combined effect of temperature and humidity on the human body. To achieve this, projections of a basic index—the humidex—representative of the perceived temperature, under different scenarios and periods, have been investigated. The simultaneous occurrence of observed extreme temperature events and perceived extreme temperature events is seldom found within the present climate, reinforcing the importance of investigating the combination of the two fields. A set of 10 km resolution regional climate simulations, provided within the EURO-CORDEX multi-model effort, demonstrates an ability in representing moderate to extreme events of perceived temperature over the present climate, and to be useful as a tool for quantifying future changes in geographical patterns of exposed areas over Europe. Following the RCP8.5 emission scenario, an expansion of the area subject to dangerous conditions is suggested from the middle of the current century, reaching 60 °N. The most significant increase of perceived extreme temperature conditions is found comparing the 2066-2095 projections to the 1976-2005 period; bearing in mind that changes in relative humidity may either amplify or offset the health effects of temperature, a less pronounced projected reduction of relative humidity in the north-eastern part of Europe, associated with extreme humidex events, makes northern Europe the most prone region to an increase of moderate to extreme values of perceived temperature. This is in agreement with a pronounced projected specific humidity increase.

Climate change induced heat wave hazard in eastern Africa: Dar Es Salaam (Tanzania) and Addis Ababa (Ethiopia) case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Capuano, Paolo; Sellerino, Mariangela; Di Ruocco, Angela; Kombe, Wilbard; Yeshitela, Kumelachew

2013-04-01

Last decades, new records were set in the world for tornadoes, drought, wind, floods, wildfires and hot temperatures, testifying unusual weather and climate patterns with increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. Extreme heat events are natural hazards affecting many regions in the world, nevertheless limited work has been done on the analysis and effects of extreme heat events in Africa, that is considered a continent particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. In fact, the increase of temperature expected in the African continent during the 21st century is larger than the global mean warming, being about 3° to 4° C, about 1.5 times the global temperature increase (Christensen et al., 2007; Gualdi et al., 2012), with the subtropical regions projected to warm more than the tropical regions. Observations and downscaled model simulations (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 IPCC scenarios) are analyzed to describe heat wave characteristics in Dar es Salaam (Tanzania) and Addis Ababa (Ethiopia), spanning the last five decades as well as that projected for the 21st century. Observed data are daily maximum and minimum temperature collected in the period 1961-2011; downscaled model simulations span up to 2050. Heat waves are defined following a peak over threshold approach by statistical comparison to historical meteorological baselines (site dependent), using a fixed absolute threshold. Projected future warming in the Dar es Salaam and Addis Ababa shows a further increase in the heat waves parameters. Heat wave duration and hot days number are strictly correlated showing that the temperature rise could generate not only an increase of heat waves number but mainly a longer average duration, that can strongly affect the resilience capacity of the population, particularly the elder people. In fact, the impacts of heat waves on the society are determined also by temporal duration (Stephenson, 2008), in addition to their frequency, in fact the capacity of adaptation can be reduced with prolonged exposure to high temperature and humidity. The expected persistence of long-lived heat waves lasting approximately 1.5-2 weeks is clearly longer with respect to the climatological period (1961-1990). During 100 years, short lived but more intense waves are more than doubled in duration. It is evident the needs for the national health services to develop strategies for the mitigation of the heat wave effects, to enhance the resilience of the population, particularly the elder people.

Current concepts for quality assured long-distance transport of temperature-sensitive red blood cell concentrates.

PubMed

Klose, T; Borchert, H-H; Pruss, A; Roth, W-K; Bohnen, H R; Putzker, M

2010-07-01

The German Armed Forces Blood Service in Koblenz supplies red blood cell concentrates (RBCs) to military and civilian institutions at home and to field hospitals during peacekeeping operations abroad. During long-distance transport, blood products can be exposed to extreme environmental conditions or inappropriate handling, which may compromise product quality. Different active and passive cooling systems, cooling elements, packaging material and data loggers were examined in a climate chamber. A number of techniques for measuring temperature were investigated in order to preserve the blood products' quality during transport, including some field tests with multiparametric data recording. Any kind of active cooling systems, conventional cooling elements and customary packaging material, as well as temperature-sensitive labels, minimum-maximum thermometers and intra-product measurement were found to be unsuitable for military requirement. The best results were obtained when the passively cooling RCB 25 transport box (Dometic) was used together with latent heat/cold storage elements (deltaT) and Junior data loggers (Escort). The elaborated protocol allows temperatures to be maintained between 2 and 6 degrees C as required by European guidelines for at least 36 h each and between 1 and 10 degrees C as required by German guidelines for at least 48 or 64 h at ambient temperatures between -10 and 40 degrees C. Preliminary results indicate that care must be taken concerning additional factors such as air pressure variation or vibration.

Rainfall and temperature changes and variability in the Upper East Region of Ghana

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Issahaku, Abdul-Rahaman; Campion, Benjamin Betey; Edziyie, Regina

2016-08-01

The aim of the research was to assess the current trend and variation in rainfall and temperature in the Upper East Region, Ghana, using time series moving average analysis and decomposition methods. Meteorological data obtained from the Ghana Meteorological Agency in Accra, Ghana, from 1954 to 2014 were used in the models. The additive decomposition model was used to analyze the rainfall because the seasonal variation was relatively constant over time, while the multiplicative model was used for both the daytime and nighttime temperatures because their seasonal variations increase over time. The monthly maximum and the minimum values for the entire period were as follows: rainfall 455.50 and 0.00 mm, nighttime temperature 29.10°C and 13.25°C and daytime temperature 41.10°C and 26.10°C, respectively. Also, while rainfall was decreasing, nighttime and daytime temperatures were increasing in decadal times. Since both the daytime and nighttime temperatures were increasing and rainfall was decreasing, climate extreme events such as droughts could result and affect agriculture in the region, which is predominantly rain fed. Also, rivers, dams, and dugouts are likely to dry up in the region. It was also observed that there was much variation in rainfall making prediction difficult. Day temperatures were generally high with the months of March and April have been the highest. The months of December recorded the lowest night temperature. Inhabitants are therefore advised to sleep in well-ventilated rooms during the warmest months and wear protective clothing during the cold months to avoid contracting climate-related diseases.

The relative importance among anthropogenic forcings of land use/land cover change in affecting temperature extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Liang; Dirmeyer, Paul A.

2018-05-01

Land use/land cover change (LULCC) exerts significant influence on regional climate extremes, but its relative importance compared with other anthropogenic climate forcings has not been thoroughly investigated. This study compares land use forcing with other forcing agents in explaining the simulated historical temperature extreme changes since preindustrial times in the CESM-Last Millennium Ensemble (LME) project. CESM-LME suggests that the land use forcing has caused an overall cooling in both warm and cold extremes, and has significantly decreased diurnal temperature range (DTR). Due to the competing effects of the GHG and aerosol forcings, the spatial pattern of changes in 1850-2005 climatology of temperature extremes in CESM-LME can be largely explained by the land use forcing, especially for hot extremes and DTR. The dominance of land use forcing is particularly evident over Europe, eastern China, and the central and eastern US. Temporally, the land-use cooling is relatively stable throughout the historical period, while the warming of temperature extremes is mainly influenced by the enhanced GHG forcing, which has gradually dampened the local dominance of the land use effects. Results from the suite of CMIP5 experiments partially agree with the local dominance of the land use forcing in CESM-LME, but inter-model discrepancies exist in the distribution and sign of the LULCC-induced temperature changes. Our results underline the overall importance of LULCC in historical temperature extreme changes, implying land use forcing should be highlighted in future climate projections.

Equatorial temperature anomaly during solar minimum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suhasini, R.; Raghavarao, R.; Mayr, H. G.; Hoegy, W. R.; Wharton, L. E.

2001-11-01

We show evidence for the occurrence of the equatorial temperature anomaly (ETA) during solar minimum by analyzing the temperature and total ion density data from the Neutral Atmosphere Temperature Experiment (NATE) and the Cylindrical Electrostatic Probe (CEP), respectively, on board the Atmospheric Explorer-E satellite. The chosen data refer to a height of ~254 km in the African and Asian longitude sector (340.1°E-200°E) during a summer season in the Southern Hemisphere. As during the solar maximum period, the spatial characteristics of the ETA are similar to those of the equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA). A minimum in the gas temperature is collocated with the minimum in the ion density at the dip equator, and a temperature maximum on the south side of the equator is collocated with the density maximum of the EIA. The daytime behavior of ETA formation is about the same as that of EIA as both of them are clearly present at around 1300 and 1400 local solar time (LST) only. At 1400 LST the difference between the temperatures at the crest and the trough (ETA strength) reaches a maximum value of about 100°K which is ~14% of the temperature at the trough. Like the EIA, the ETA also suddenly disappears after 1400 LST. Thus the EIA appears to be a prerequisite for the ETA formation. During the premidnight time (2200 LST), however, while the EIA is nonexistent, the temperature distribution forms a pattern opposite to that at 1400 LST in the daytime. It shows a maximum around the dip equator and a broad minimum at the daytime crest region where the postsunset cooling also is faster and occurs earlier than at the dip equator. This nighttime maximum appears to be related to the signature of the midnight temperature maximum (MTM). Mass Spectrometer Incoherent Scatter (MSIS) model temperatures, in general, are higher than the observed average temperatures for the summer season and in particular for the region around the dip equator around noon hours.

The nonstationary impact of local temperature changes and ENSO on extreme precipitation at the global scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Qiaohong; Miao, Chiyuan; Qiao, Yuanyuan; Duan, Qingyun

2017-12-01

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and local temperature are important drivers of extreme precipitation. Understanding the impact of ENSO and temperature on the risk of extreme precipitation over global land will provide a foundation for risk assessment and climate-adaptive design of infrastructure in a changing climate. In this study, nonstationary generalized extreme value distributions were used to model extreme precipitation over global land for the period 1979-2015, with ENSO indicator and temperature as covariates. Risk factors were estimated to quantify the contrast between the influence of different ENSO phases and temperature. The results show that extreme precipitation is dominated by ENSO over 22% of global land and by temperature over 26% of global land. With a warming climate, the risk of high-intensity daily extreme precipitation increases at high latitudes but decreases in tropical regions. For ENSO, large parts of North America, southern South America, and southeastern and northeastern China are shown to suffer greater risk in El Niño years, with more than double the chance of intense extreme precipitation in El Niño years compared with La Niña years. Moreover, regions with more intense precipitation are more sensitive to ENSO. Global climate models were used to investigate the changing relationship between extreme precipitation and the covariates. The risk of extreme, high-intensity precipitation increases across high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere but decreases in middle and lower latitudes under a warming climate scenario, and will likely trigger increases in severe flooding and droughts across the globe. However, there is some uncertainties associated with the influence of ENSO on predictions of future extreme precipitation, with the spatial extent and risk varying among the different models.

Temperature extremes in Alaska: temporal variability and circulation background

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sulikowska, Agnieszka; Walawender, Jakub P.; Walawender, Ewelina

2018-06-01

The aims of this study are to characterize the spatial and temporal variability of extremely warm days (WDs) and warm spells (WSs) in summer as well as extremely cold days (CDs) and cold spells (CSs) in winter in Alaska in the years 1951-2015 and to determine the role of atmospheric circulation in their occurrence. The analysis is performed using daily temperature maxima (T MAX) and minima (T MIN) measured at 10 weather stations in Alaska as well as mean daily values of sea level pressure and wind direction at the 850 hPa isobaric level. WD (CD) is defined as a day with T MAX above the 95th (T MIN below the 5th) percentile of a probability density function calculated from observations, and WS (CS) equals at least three consecutive WDs (CDs). Frequency of the occurrence and severity of warm and cold extremes as well as duration of WSs and CSs is analyzed. In order to characterize synoptic conditions during temperature extremes, the objective classification scheme of advection types considering jointly the direction of the air influx and type of pressure system is employed. The results show that the general trend is towards the warmer temperatures, and the warming is greater in the winter than summer and for T MAX as opposed to T MIN. This is reflected in changes in the frequency of occurrence and intensity of temperature extremes which are much more pronounced in the case of winter cold extremes (decreasing tendencies) than summer warm extremes (increasing tendencies). The occurrence of temperature extremes is generally favored by anticyclonic weather with advection direction indicating air mass flows from the interior of the North American continent as well as the south (warm extremes in summer) and north (cold extremes in winter).

Canadian crop calendars in support of the early warning project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Trenchard, M. H.; Hodges, T. (Principal Investigator)

1980-01-01

The Canadian crop calendars for LACIE are presented. Long term monthly averages of daily maximum and daily minimum temperatures for subregions of provinces were used to simulate normal daily maximum and minimum temperatures. The Robertson (1968) spring wheat and Williams (1974) spring barley phenology models were run using the simulated daily temperatures and daylengths for appropriate latitudes. Simulated daily temperatures and phenology model outputs for spring wheat and spring barley are given.

Comparing exposure metrics for classifying ‘dangerous heat’ in heat wave and health warning systems

PubMed Central

Zhang, Kai; Rood, Richard B.; Michailidis, George; Oswald, Evan M.; Schwartz, Joel D.; Zanobetti, Antonella; Ebi, Kristie L.; O’Neill, Marie S.

2012-01-01

Heat waves have been linked to excess mortality and morbidity, and are projected to increase in frequency and intensity with a warming climate. This study compares exposure metrics to trigger heat wave and health warning systems (HHWS), and introduces a novel multi-level hybrid clustering method to identify potential dangerously hot days. Two-level and three-level hybrid clustering analysis as well as common indices used to trigger HHWS, including spatial synoptic classification (SSC); and 90th, 95th, and 99th percentiles of minimum and relative minimum temperature (using a 10 day reference period), were calculated using a summertime weather dataset in Detroit from 1976 to 2006. The days classified as ‘hot’ with hybrid clustering analysis, SSC, minimum and relative minimum temperature methods differed by method type. SSC tended to include the days with, on average, 2.6 °C lower daily minimum temperature and 5.3 °C lower dew point than days identified by other methods. These metrics were evaluated by comparing their performance in predicting excess daily mortality. The 99th percentile of minimum temperature was generally the most predictive, followed by the three-level hybrid clustering method, the 95th percentile of minimum temperature, SSC and others. Our proposed clustering framework has more flexibility and requires less substantial meteorological prior information than the synoptic classification methods. Comparison of these metrics in predicting excess daily mortality suggests that metrics thought to better characterize physiological heat stress by considering several weather conditions simultaneously may not be the same metrics that are better at predicting heat-related mortality, which has significant implications in HHWSs. PMID:22673187

Evaluation of COTS Electronic Parts for Extreme Temperature Use in NASA Missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Patterson, Richard L.; Hammoud, Ahmad; Elbuluk, Malik

2008-01-01

Electronic systems capable of extreme temperature operation are required for many future NASA space exploration missions where it is desirable to have smaller, lighter, and less expensive spacecraft and probes. Presently, spacecraft on-board electronics are maintained at about room temperature by use of thermal control systems. An Extreme Temperature Electronics Program at the NASA Glenn Research Center focuses on development of electronics suitable for space exploration missions. The effects of exposure to extreme temperatures and thermal cycling are being investigated for commercial-off-the-shelf components as well as for components specially developed for harsh environments. An overview of this program along with selected data is presented.

A Change in the Solar He II EUV Global Network Structure as an Indicator of the Geo-Effectiveness of Solar Minima

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Didkovsky, L.; Gurman, J. B.

2013-01-01

Solar activity during 2007 - 2009 was very low, causing anomalously low thermospheric density. A comparison of solar extreme ultraviolet (EUV) irradiance in the He II spectral band (26 to 34 nm) from the Solar Extreme ultraviolet Monitor (SEM), one of instruments on the Charge Element and Isotope Analysis System (CELIAS) on board the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) for the two latest solar minima showed a decrease of the absolute irradiance of about 15 +/- 6 % during the solar minimum between Cycles 23 and 24 compared with the Cycle 22/23 minimum when a yearly running-mean filter was used. We found that some local, shorter-term minima including those with the same absolute EUV flux in the SEM spectral band show a higher concentration of spatial power in the global network structure from the 30.4 nm SOHO/Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope (EIT) images for the local minimum of 1996 compared with the minima of 2008 - 2011.We interpret this higher concentration of spatial power in the transition region's global network structure as a larger number of larger-area features on the solar disk. These changes in the global network structure during solar minima may characterize, in part, the geo-effectiveness of the solar He II EUV irradiance in addition to the estimations based on its absolute levels.

Adaptation potential of naturally ventilated barns to high temperature extremes: The OptiBarn project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menz, Christoph

2016-04-01

Climate change interferes with various aspects of the socio-economic system. One important aspect is its influence on animal husbandry, especially dairy faming. Dairy cows are usually kept in naturally ventilated barns (NVBs) which are particular vulnerable to extreme events due to their low adaptation capabilities. An effective adaptation to high outdoor temperatures for example, is only possible under certain wind and humidity conditions. High temperature extremes are expected to increase in number and strength under climate change. To assess the impact of this change on NVBs and dairy cows also the changes in wind and humidity needs to be considered. Hence we need to consider the multivariate structure of future temperature extremes. The OptiBarn project aims to develop sustainable adaptation strategies for dairy housings under climate change for Europe, by considering the multivariate structure of high temperature extremes. In a first step we identify various multivariate high temperature extremes for three core regions in Europe. With respect to dairy cows in NVBs we will focus on the wind and humidity field during high temperature events. In a second step we will use the CORDEX-EUR-11 ensemble to evaluate the capability of the RCMs to model such events and assess their future change potential. By transferring the outdoor conditions to indoor climate and animal wellbeing the results of this assessment can be used to develop technical, architectural and animal specific adaptation strategies for high temperature extremes.

Elevated temperature ductility of types 304 and 316 stainless steel. [640/sup 0/ to 750/sup 0/C

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sikka, V. K.

1978-01-01

Austenitic stainless steel types 304 and 316 are known for their high ductility and toughness. However, the present study shows that certain combinations of strain rate and test temperature can result in a significant loss in elevated-temperature ductility. Such a phenomenon is referred to as ductility minimum. The strain rate, below which ductility loss is initiated, decreases with decrease in test temperature. Besides strain rate and temperature, the ductility minimum was also affected by nitrogen content and thermal aging conditions. Thermal aging at 649/sup 0/C was observed to eliminate the ductility minimum at 649/sup 0/C in both types 304 andmore » 316 stainless steel. Such an aging treatment resulted in a higher ductility than the unaged value. Aging at 593/sup 0/C still resulted in some loss in ductility. Current results suggest that ductility-minimum conditions for stainless steel should be considered in design, thermal aging data analysis, and while studying the effects of chemical composition.« less

Variability of Diurnal Temperature Range During Winter Over Western Himalaya: Range- and Altitude-Wise Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shekhar, M. S.; Devi, Usha; Dash, S. K.; Singh, G. P.; Singh, Amreek

2018-04-01

The current trends in diurnal temperature range, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, mean temperature, and sun shine hours over different ranges and altitudes of Western Himalaya during winter have been studied. Analysis of 25 years of data shows an increasing trend in diurnal temperature range over all the ranges and altitudes of Western Himalaya during winter, thereby confirming regional warming of the region due to present climate change and global warming. Statistical studies show significant increasing trend in maximum temperature over all the ranges and altitudes of Western Himalaya. Minimum temperature shows significant decreasing trend over Pir Panjal and Shamshawari range and significant increasing trend over higher altitude of Western Himalaya. Similarly, sunshine hours show significant decreasing trend over Karakoram range. There exists strong positive correlation between diurnal temperature range and maximum temperature for all the ranges and altitudes of Western Himalaya. Strong negative correlation exists between diurnal temperature range and minimum temperature over Shamshawari and Great Himalaya range and lower altitude of Western Himalaya. Sunshine hours show strong positive correlation with diurnal temperature range over Pir Panjal and Great Himalaya range and lower and higher altitudes.

Variation in the Gross Tumor Volume and Clinical Target Volume for Preoperative Radiotherapy of Primary Large High-Grade Soft Tissue Sarcoma of the Extremity Among RTOG Sarcoma Radiation Oncologists

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang Dian, E-mail: dwang@mcw.edu; Bosch, Walter; Kirsch, David G.

Purpose: To evaluate variability in the definition of preoperative radiotherapy gross tumor volume (GTV) and clinical target volume (CTV) delineated by sarcoma radiation oncologists. Methods and Materials: Extremity sarcoma planning CT images along with the corresponding diagnostic MRI from two patients were distributed to 10 Radiation Therapy Oncology Group sarcoma radiation oncologists with instructions to define GTV and CTV using standardized guidelines. The CT data with contours were then returned for central analysis. Contours representing statistically corrected 95% (V95) and 100% (V100) agreement were computed for each structure. Results: For the GTV, the minimum, maximum, mean (SD) volumes (mL) weremore » 674, 798, 752 {+-} 35 for the lower extremity case and 383, 543, 447 {+-} 46 for the upper extremity case. The volume (cc) of the union, V95 and V100 were 882, 761, and 752 for the lower, and 587, 461, and 455 for the upper extremity, respectively. The overall GTV agreement was judged to be almost perfect in both lower and upper extremity cases (kappa = 0.9 [p < 0.0001] and kappa = 0.86 [p < 0.0001]). For the CTV, the minimum, maximum, mean (SD) volumes (mL) were 1145, 1911, 1605 {+-} 211 for the lower extremity case and 637, 1246, 1006 {+-} 180 for the upper extremity case. The volume (cc) of the union, V95, and V100 were 2094, 1609, and 1593 for the lower, and 1533, 1020, and 965 for the upper extremity cases, respectively. The overall CTV agreement was judged to be almost perfect in the lower extremity case (kappa = 0.85 [p < 0.0001]) but only substantial in the upper extremity case (kappa = 0.77 [p < 0.0001]). Conclusions: Almost perfect agreement existed in the GTV of these two representative cases. Tshere was no significant disagreement in the CTV of the lower extremity, but variation in the CTV of upper extremity was seen, perhaps related to the positional differences between the planning CT and the diagnostic MRI.« less

Effects of elevated mean and extremely high temperatures on the physio-ecological characteristics of geographically distinctive populations of Cunninghamia lanceolata

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Ting; Jia, Xiaorong; Liao, Huixuan; Peng, Shijia; Peng, Shaolin

2016-12-01

Conventional models for predicting species distribution under global warming scenarios often treat one species as a homogeneous whole. In the present study, we selected Cunninghamia lanceolata (C. lanceolata), a widely distributed species in China, to investigate the physio-ecological responses of five populations under different temperature regimes. The results demonstrate that increased mean temperatures induce increased growth performance among northern populations, which exhibited the greatest germination capacity and largest increase in the overlap between the growth curve and the monthly average temperature. However,tolerance of the southern population to extremely high temperatures was stronger than among the population from the northern region,shown by the best growth and the most stable photosynthetic system of the southern population under extremely high temperature. This result indicates that the growth advantage among northern populations due to increased mean temperatures may be weakened by lower tolerance to extremely high temperatures. This finding is antithetical to the predicted results. The theoretical coupling model constructed here illustrates that the difference in growth between populations at high and low latitudes and altitudes under global warming will decrease because of the frequent occurrence of extremely high temperatures.

Thermal Evaluation of Fiber Bragg Gratings at Extreme Temperatures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Juergens, Jeffrey; Adamovsky, Grigory; Bhatt, Ramakrishna; Morscher, Gregory; Floyd, Bertram

2005-01-01

The development of integrated fiber optic sensors for use in aerospace health monitoring systems demands that the sensors be able to perform in extreme environments. In order to use fiber optic sensors effectively in an extreme environment one must have a thorough understanding of the sensor's capabilities, limitations, and performance under extreme environmental conditions. This paper reports on our current sensor evaluation examining the performance of freestanding fiber Bragg gratings (FBG) at extreme temperatures. While the ability of FBGs to survive at extreme temperatures has been established, their performance and long term survivability is not well documented. At extreme temperatures the grating structure would be expected to dissipate, degrading the sensors performance and eventually ceasing to return a detectable signal. The fiber jacket will dissipate leaving a brittle, unprotected fiber. For FBGs to be used in aerospace systems their performance and limitations need to be thoroughly understood at extreme temperatures. As the limits of the FBGs performance are pushed the long term survivability and performance of the sensor comes into question. We will not only examine the ability of FBGs to survive extreme temperatures but also look at their performance during many thermal cycles. This paper reports on test results of the performance of thermal cycling commercially available FBGs, at temperatures up to 1000 C, seen in aerospace applications. Additionally this paper will report on the performance of commercially available FBGs held at 1000 C for hundreds of hours. Throughout the evaluation process, various parameters of the FBGs performance were monitored and recorded. Several test samples were subjected to identical test conditions to allow for statistical analysis of the data. Test procedures, calibrations, referencing techniques, performance data, and interpretations and explanations of results are presented in the paper along with directions for future research.

Daily mean temperature estimate at the US SUFRAD stations as an average of the maximum and minimum temperatures

DOE PAGES

Chylek, Petr; Augustine, John A.; Klett, James D.; ...

2017-09-30

At thousands of stations worldwide, the mean daily surface air temperature is estimated as a mean of the daily maximum (T max) and minimum (T min) temperatures. In this paper, we use the NOAA Surface Radiation Budget Network (SURFRAD) of seven US stations with surface air temperature recorded each minute to assess the accuracy of the mean daily temperature estimate as an average of the daily maximum and minimum temperatures and to investigate how the accuracy of the estimate increases with an increasing number of daily temperature observations. We find the average difference between the estimate based on an averagemore » of the maximum and minimum temperatures and the average of 1440 1-min daily observations to be - 0.05 ± 1.56 °C, based on analyses of a sample of 238 days of temperature observations. Considering determination of the daily mean temperature based on 3, 4, 6, 12, or 24 daily temperature observations, we find that 2, 4, or 6 daily observations do not reduce significantly the uncertainty of the daily mean temperature. The bias reduction in a statistically significant manner (95% confidence level) occurs only with 12 or 24 daily observations. The daily mean temperature determination based on 24 hourly observations reduces the sample daily temperature uncertainty to - 0.01 ± 0.20 °C. Finally, estimating the parameters of population of all SURFRAD observations, the 95% confidence intervals based on 24 hourly measurements is from - 0.025 to 0.004 °C, compared to a confidence interval from - 0.15 to 0.05 °C based on the mean of T max and T min.« less

Daily mean temperature estimate at the US SUFRAD stations as an average of the maximum and minimum temperatures

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chylek, Petr; Augustine, John A.; Klett, James D.

At thousands of stations worldwide, the mean daily surface air temperature is estimated as a mean of the daily maximum (T max) and minimum (T min) temperatures. In this paper, we use the NOAA Surface Radiation Budget Network (SURFRAD) of seven US stations with surface air temperature recorded each minute to assess the accuracy of the mean daily temperature estimate as an average of the daily maximum and minimum temperatures and to investigate how the accuracy of the estimate increases with an increasing number of daily temperature observations. We find the average difference between the estimate based on an averagemore » of the maximum and minimum temperatures and the average of 1440 1-min daily observations to be - 0.05 ± 1.56 °C, based on analyses of a sample of 238 days of temperature observations. Considering determination of the daily mean temperature based on 3, 4, 6, 12, or 24 daily temperature observations, we find that 2, 4, or 6 daily observations do not reduce significantly the uncertainty of the daily mean temperature. The bias reduction in a statistically significant manner (95% confidence level) occurs only with 12 or 24 daily observations. The daily mean temperature determination based on 24 hourly observations reduces the sample daily temperature uncertainty to - 0.01 ± 0.20 °C. Finally, estimating the parameters of population of all SURFRAD observations, the 95% confidence intervals based on 24 hourly measurements is from - 0.025 to 0.004 °C, compared to a confidence interval from - 0.15 to 0.05 °C based on the mean of T max and T min.« less

Influence of spatial and temporal scales in identifying temperature extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Eck, Christel M.; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Mulder, Vera L.; Regnier, Pierre A. G.

2016-04-01

Extreme heat events are becoming more frequent. Notable are severe heatwaves such as the European heatwave of 2003, the Russian heat wave of 2010 and the Australian heatwave of 2013. Surface temperature is attaining new maxima not only during the summer but also during the winter. The year of 2015 is reported to be a temperature record breaking year for both summer and winter. These extreme temperatures are taking their human and environmental toll, emphasizing the need for an accurate method to define a heat extreme in order to fully understand the spatial and temporal spread of an extreme and its impact. This research aims to explore how the use of different spatial and temporal scales influences the identification of a heat extreme. For this purpose, two near-surface temperature datasets of different temporal scale and spatial scale are being used. First, the daily ERA-Interim dataset of 0.25 degree and a time span of 32 years (1979-2010). Second, the daily Princeton Meteorological Forcing Dataset of 0.5 degree and a time span of 63 years (1948-2010). A temperature is considered extreme anomalous when it is surpassing the 90th, 95th, or the 99th percentile threshold based on the aforementioned pre-processed datasets. The analysis is conducted on a global scale, dividing the world in IPCC's so-called SREX regions developed for the analysis of extreme climate events. Pre-processing is done by detrending and/or subtracting the monthly climatology based on 32 years of data for both datasets and on 63 years of data for only the Princeton Meteorological Forcing Dataset. This results in 6 datasets of temperature anomalies from which the location in time and space of the anomalous warm days are identified. Comparison of the differences between these 6 datasets in terms of absolute threshold temperatures for extremes and the temporal and spatial spread of the extreme anomalous warm days show a dependence of the results on the datasets and methodology used. This stresses the need for a careful selection of data and methodology when identifying heat extremes.

Extreme High and Low Temperature Operation of the Silicon-On-Insulator Type CHT-OPA Operational Amplifier

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Patterson, Richard; Hammoud, Ahmad; Elbuluk, Malik

2008-01-01

A new operational amplifier chip based on silicon-on-insulator technology was evaluated for potential use in extreme temperature environments. The CHT-OPA device is a low power, precision operational amplifier with rail-to-rail output swing capability, and it is rated for operation between -55 C and +225 C. A unity gain inverting circuit was constructed utilizing the CHT-OPA chip and a few passive components. The circuit was evaluated in the temperature range from -190 C to +200 C in terms of signal gain and phase shift, and supply current. The investigations were carried out to determine suitability of this device for use in space exploration missions and aeronautic applications under wide temperature incursion. Re-restart capability at extreme temperatures, i.e. power switched on while the device was soaked at extreme temperatures, was also investigated. In addition, the effects of thermal cycling under a wide temperature range on the operation of this high performance amplifier were determined. The results from this work indicate that this silicon-on-insulator amplifier chip maintained very good operation between +200 C and -190 C. The limited thermal cycling had no effect on the performance of the amplifier, and it was able to re-start at both -190 C and +200 C. In addition, no physical degradation or packaging damage was introduced due to either extreme temperature exposure or thermal cycling. The good performance demonstrated by this silicon-on-insulator operational amplifier renders it a potential candidate for use in space exploration missions or other environments under extreme temperatures. Additional and more comprehensive characterization is, however, required to establish the reliability and suitability of such devices for long term use in extreme temperature applications.

Analyzing phenological extreme events over the past five decades in Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schleip, Christoph; Menzel, Annette; Estrella, Nicole; Graeser, Philipp

2010-05-01

As climate change may alter the frequency and intensity of extreme temperatures, we analysed whether warming of the last 5 decades has already changed the statistics of phenological extreme events. In this context, two extreme value statistical concepts are discussed and applied to existing phenological datasets of German Weather Service (DWD) in order to derive probabilities of occurrence for extreme early or late phenological events. We analyse four phenological groups; "begin of flowering, "leaf foliation", "fruit ripening" and "leaf colouring" as well as DWD indicator phases of the "phenological year". Additionally we put an emphasis on a between-species analysis; a comparison of differences in extreme onsets between three common northern conifers. Furthermore we conducted a within-species analysis with different phases of horse chestnut throughout a year. The first statistical approach fits data to a Gaussian model using traditional statistical techniques, and then analyses the extreme quantile. The key point of this approach is the adoption of an appropriate probability density function (PDF) to the observed data and the assessment of the PDF parameters change in time. The full analytical description in terms of the estimated PDF for defined time steps of the observation period allows probability assessments of extreme values for e.g. annual or decadal time steps. Related with this approach is the possibility of counting out the onsets which fall in our defined extreme percentiles. The estimation of the probability of extreme events on the basis of the whole data set is in contrast to analyses with the generalized extreme value distribution (GEV). The second approach deals with the extreme PDFs itself and fits the GEV distribution to annual minima of phenological series to provide useful estimates about return levels. For flowering and leaf unfolding phases exceptionally early extremes are seen since the mid 1980s and especially for the single years 1961, 1990 and 2007 whereas exceptionally extreme late events are seen in the year 1970. Summer phases such as fruit ripening exhibit stronger shifts to early extremes than spring phases. Leaf colouring phases reveal increasing probability for late extremes. The with GEV estimated 100-year event of Picea, Pinus and Larix amount to extreme early events of about -27, -31.48 and -32.79 days, respectively. If we assume non-stationary minimum data we get a more extreme 100-year event of about -35.40 for Picea but associated with wider confidence intervals. The GEV is simply another probability distribution but for purposes of extreme analysis in phenology it should be considered as equally important as (if not more important than) the Gaussian PDF approach.

Improved belief propagation algorithm finds many Bethe states in the random-field Ising model on random graphs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perugini, G.; Ricci-Tersenghi, F.

2018-01-01

We first present an empirical study of the Belief Propagation (BP) algorithm, when run on the random field Ising model defined on random regular graphs in the zero temperature limit. We introduce the notion of extremal solutions for the BP equations, and we use them to fix a fraction of spins in their ground state configuration. At the phase transition point the fraction of unconstrained spins percolates and their number diverges with the system size. This in turn makes the associated optimization problem highly non trivial in the critical region. Using the bounds on the BP messages provided by the extremal solutions we design a new and very easy to implement BP scheme which is able to output a large number of stable fixed points. On one hand this new algorithm is able to provide the minimum energy configuration with high probability in a competitive time. On the other hand we found that the number of fixed points of the BP algorithm grows with the system size in the critical region. This unexpected feature poses new relevant questions about the physics of this class of models.

Rising sea levels will reduce extreme temperature variations in tide-dominated reef habitats

PubMed Central

Lowe, Ryan Joseph; Pivan, Xavier; Falter, James; Symonds, Graham; Gruber, Renee

2016-01-01

Temperatures within shallow reefs often differ substantially from those in the surrounding ocean; therefore, predicting future patterns of thermal stresses and bleaching at the scale of reefs depends on accurately predicting reef heat budgets. We present a new framework for quantifying how tidal and solar heating cycles interact with reef morphology to control diurnal temperature extremes within shallow, tidally forced reefs. Using data from northwestern Australia, we construct a heat budget model to investigate how frequency differences between the dominant lunar semidiurnal tide and diurnal solar cycle drive ~15-day modulations in diurnal temperature extremes. The model is extended to show how reefs with tidal amplitudes comparable to their depth, relative to mean sea level, tend to experience the largest temperature extremes globally. As a consequence, we reveal how even a modest sea level rise can substantially reduce temperature extremes within tide-dominated reefs, thereby partially offsetting the local effects of future ocean warming. PMID:27540589

Small Cold Temperature Instrument Packages

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clark, P. E.; Millar, P. S.; Yeh, P. S.; Feng, S.; Brigham, D.; Beaman, B.

We are developing a small cold temperature instrument package concept that integrates a cold temperature power system with ultra low temperature ultra low power electronics components and power supplies now under development into a 'cold temperature surface operational' version of a planetary surface instrument package. We are already in the process of developing a lower power lower temperature version for an instrument of mutual interest to SMD and ESMD to support the search for volatiles (the mass spectrometer VAPoR, Volatile Analysis by Pyrolysis of Regolith) both as a stand alone instrument and as part of an environmental monitoring package. We build on our previous work to develop strategies for incorporating Ultra Low Temperature/Ultra Low Power (ULT/ULP) electronics, lower voltage power supplies, as well as innovative thermal design concepts for instrument packages. Cryotesting has indicated that our small Si RHBD CMOS chips can deliver >80% of room temperature performance at 40K (nominal minimum lunar surface temperature). We leverage collaborations, past and current, with the JPL battery development program to increase power system efficiency in extreme environments. We harness advances in MOSFET technology that provide lower voltage thresholds for power switching circuits incorporated into our low voltage power supply concept. Conventional power conversion has a lower efficiency. Our low power circuit concept based on 'synchronous rectification' could produce stable voltages as low as 0.6 V with 85% efficiency. Our distributed micro-battery-based power supply concept incorporates cold temperature power supplies operating with a 4 V or 8 V battery. This work will allow us to provide guidelines for applying the low temperature, low power system approaches generically to the widest range of surface instruments.

Gross mismatch between thermal tolerances and environmental temperatures in a tropical freshwater snail: climate warming and evolutionary implications.

PubMed

Polgar, Gianluca; Khang, Tsung Fei; Chua, Teddy; Marshall, David J

2015-01-01

The relationship between acute thermal tolerance and habitat temperature in ectotherm animals informs about their thermal adaptation and is used to assess thermal safety margins and sensitivity to climate warming. We studied this relationship in an equatorial freshwater snail (Clea nigricans), belonging to a predominantly marine gastropod lineage (Neogastropoda, Buccinidae). We found that tolerance of heating and cooling exceeded average daily maximum and minimum temperatures, by roughly 20°C in each case. Because habitat temperature is generally assumed to be the main selective factor acting on the fundamental thermal niche, the discordance between thermal tolerance and environmental temperature implies trait conservation following 'in situ' environmental change, or following novel colonisation of a thermally less-variable habitat. Whereas heat tolerance could relate to an historical association with the thermally variable and extreme marine intertidal fringe zone, cold tolerance could associate with either an ancestral life at higher latitudes, or represent adaptation to cooler, higher-altitudinal, tropical lotic systems. The broad upper thermal safety margin (difference between heat tolerance and maximum environmental temperature) observed in this snail is grossly incompatible with the very narrow safety margins typically found in most terrestrial tropical ectotherms (insects and lizards), and hence with the emerging prediction that tropical ectotherms, are especially vulnerable to environmental warming. A more comprehensive understanding of climatic vulnerability of animal ectotherms thus requires greater consideration of taxonomic diversity, ecological transition and evolutionary history. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Performance of the IRI-2007 Model for Equatorial Topside Ion Density in the African Sector for Low and Extremely Low Solar Activity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Klenzing, J.; Simoes, F.; Ivanov, S.; Bilitza, D.; Heelis, R. A.; Rowland, D.

2012-01-01

The recent availability of new data sets during the recent extreme solar minimum provides an opportunity for testing the performance of the International Reference Ionosphere in historically under-sampled regions. This study will present averages and variability of topside ionospheric densities over Africa as a function of season, local time, altitude, and magnetic dip latitude as measured by the Coupled Ion-Neutral Dynamics Investigation (CINDI) Mission of Opportunity on the C/NOFS satellite. The results will be compared to the three topside model options available in IRI-2007. Overall, the NeQuick model is found to have the best performance, though during the deepest part of the solar minimum all three options significantly overestimate density.

Ab initio atomic recombination reaction energetics on model heat shield surfaces

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Senese, Fredrick; Ake, Robert

1992-01-01

Ab initio quantum mechanical calculations on small hydration complexes involving the nitrate anion are reported. The self-consistent field method with accurate basis sets has been applied to compute completely optimized equilibrium geometries, vibrational frequencies, thermochemical parameters, and stable site labilities of complexes involving 1, 2, and 3 waters. The most stable geometries in the first hydration shell involve in-plane waters bridging pairs of nitrate oxygens with two equal and bent hydrogen bonds. A second extremely labile local minimum involves out-of-plane waters with a single hydrogen bond and lies about 2 kcal/mol higher. The potential in the region of the second minimum is extremely flat and qualitatively sensitive to changes in the basis set; it does not correspond to a true equilibrium structure.

Ubiquitous and temperature-dependent neural plasticity in hibernators.

PubMed

von der Ohe, Christina G; Darian-Smith, Corinna; Garner, Craig C; Heller, H Craig

2006-10-11

Hibernating mammals are remarkable for surviving near-freezing brain temperatures and near cessation of neural activity for a week or more at a time. This extreme physiological state is associated with dendritic and synaptic changes in hippocampal neurons. Here, we investigate whether these changes are a ubiquitous phenomenon throughout the brain that is driven by temperature. We iontophoretically injected Lucifer yellow into several types of neurons in fixed slices from hibernating ground squirrels. We analyzed neuronal microstructure from animals at several stages of torpor at two different ambient temperatures, and during the summer. We show that neuronal cell bodies, dendrites, and spines from several cell types in hibernating ground squirrels retract on entry into torpor, change little over the course of several days, and then regrow during the 2 h return to euthermia. Similar structural changes take place in neurons from the hippocampus, cortex, and thalamus, suggesting a global phenomenon. Investigation of neural microstructure from groups of animals hibernating at different ambient temperatures revealed that there is a linear relationship between neural retraction and minimum body temperature. Despite significant temperature-dependent differences in extent of retraction during torpor, recovery reaches the same final values of cell body area, dendritic arbor complexity, and spine density. This study demonstrates large-scale and seemingly ubiquitous neural plasticity in the ground squirrel brain during torpor. It also defines a temperature-driven model of dramatic neural plasticity, which provides a unique opportunity to explore mechanisms of large-scale regrowth in adult mammals, and the effects of remodeling on learning and memory.

40 CFR 61.356 - Recordkeeping requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... test protocol and the means by which sampling variability and analytical variability were accounted for... also establish the design minimum and average temperature in the combustion zone and the combustion... the design minimum and average temperatures across the catalyst bed inlet and outlet. (C) For a boiler...

The Effects of Data Gaps on the Calculated Monthly Mean Maximum and Minimum Temperatures in the Continental United States: A Spatial and Temporal Study.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stooksbury, David E.; Idso, Craig D.; Hubbard, Kenneth G.

1999-05-01

Gaps in otherwise regularly scheduled observations are often referred to as missing data. This paper explores the spatial and temporal impacts that data gaps in the recorded daily maximum and minimum temperatures have on the calculated monthly mean maximum and minimum temperatures. For this analysis 138 climate stations from the United States Historical Climatology Network Daily Temperature and Precipitation Data set were selected. The selected stations had no missing maximum or minimum temperature values during the period 1951-80. The monthly mean maximum and minimum temperatures were calculated for each station for each month. For each month 1-10 consecutive days of data from each station were randomly removed. This was performed 30 times for each simulated gap period. The spatial and temporal impact of the 1-10-day data gaps were compared. The influence of data gaps is most pronounced in the continental regions during the winter and least pronounced in the southeast during the summer. In the north central plains, 10-day data gaps during January produce a standard deviation value greater than 2°C about the `true' mean. In the southeast, 10-day data gaps in July produce a standard deviation value less than 0.5°C about the mean. The results of this study will be of value in climate variability and climate trend research as well as climate assessment and impact studies.

Mangrove species' responses to winter air temperature extremes in China

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chen, Luzhen; Wang, Wenqing; Li, Qingshun Q.; Zhang, Yihui; Yang, Shengchang; Osland, Michael J.; Huang, Jinliang; Peng, Congjiao

2017-01-01

The global distribution and diversity of mangrove forests is greatly influenced by the frequency and intensity of winter air temperature extremes. However, our understanding of how different mangrove species respond to winter temperature extremes has been lacking because extreme freezing and chilling events are, by definition, relatively uncommon and also difficult to replicate experimentally. In this study, we investigated species-specific variation in mangrove responses to winter temperature extremes in China. In 10 sites that span a latitudinal gradient, we quantified species-specific damage and recovery following a chilling event, for mangrove species within and outside of their natural range (i.e., native and non-native species, respectively). To characterize plant stress, we measured tree defoliation and chlorophyll fluorescence approximately one month following the chilling event. To quantify recovery, we measured chlorophyll fluorescence approximately nine months after the chilling event. Our results show high variation in the geographic- and species-specific responses of mangroves to winter temperature extremes. While many species were sensitive to the chilling temperatures (e.g., Bruguiera sexangula and species in the Sonneratia and Rhizophora genera), the temperatures during this event were not cold enough to affect certain species (e.g., Kandelia obovata, Aegiceras corniculatum, Avicennia marina, and Bruguiera gymnorrhiza). As expected, non-native species were less tolerant of winter temperature extremes than native species. Interestingly, tidal inundation modulated the effects of chilling. In comparison with other temperature-controlled mangrove range limits across the world, the mangrove range limit in China is unique due to the combination of the following three factors: (1) Mangrove species diversity is comparatively high; (2) winter air temperature extremes, rather than means, are particularly intense and play an important ecological role; and (3) due to afforestation and restoration efforts, several species of non-native mangroves have been introduced beyond their natural range limits. Hence, from a global perspective, mangroves in China provide valuable opportunities to advance understanding of the effects of freezing and chilling temperatures on mangroves. Within the context of climate change, our findings provide a foundation for better understanding and preparing for mangrove species-specific responses to future changes in the duration and intensity of winter temperature extremes.

Intersubband polaritons at λ ˜ 2 μm in the InAs/AlSb system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laffaille, P.; Manceau, J.-M.; Laurent, T.; Bousseksou, A.; Le Gratiet, L.; Teissier, R.; Baranov, A. N.; Colombelli, R.

2018-05-01

We demonstrate intersubband polaritons at very short wavelengths, down to λ ˜ 2 μm, using a mature semiconductor material system InAs/AlSb and a metal-insulator-metal resonator architecture. The demonstration is given for intersubband transitions centered at 350 meV (λ = 3.54 μm) and 525 meV (λ = 2.36 μm). The polaritonic dispersions are measured at room-temperature and minimum splittings (Rabi splitting) of ≈50 meV are observed. We also quantitatively show that non-parabolicity effects limit the Rabi energy that can be obtained and must be crucially taken into account to correctly model these devices. Intersubband polaritons operating in the short-wave infrared region could enable the use of extremely effective pump laser sources in the quest for an intersubband polariton laser.

A review of statistical methods to analyze extreme precipitation and temperature events in the Mediterranean region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lazoglou, Georgia; Anagnostopoulou, Christina; Tolika, Konstantia; Kolyva-Machera, Fotini

2018-04-01

The increasing trend of the intensity and frequency of temperature and precipitation extremes during the past decades has substantial environmental and socioeconomic impacts. Thus, the objective of the present study is the comparison of several statistical methods of the extreme value theory (EVT) in order to identify which is the most appropriate to analyze the behavior of the extreme precipitation, and high and low temperature events, in the Mediterranean region. The extremes choice was made using both the block maxima and the peaks over threshold (POT) technique and as a consequence both the generalized extreme value (GEV) and generalized Pareto distributions (GPDs) were used to fit them. The results were compared, in order to select the most appropriate distribution for extremes characterization. Moreover, this study evaluates the maximum likelihood estimation, the L-moments and the Bayesian method, based on both graphical and statistical goodness-of-fit tests. It was revealed that the GPD can characterize accurately both precipitation and temperature extreme events. Additionally, GEV distribution with the Bayesian method is proven to be appropriate especially for the greatest values of extremes. Another important objective of this investigation was the estimation of the precipitation and temperature return levels for three return periods (50, 100, and 150 years) classifying the data into groups with similar characteristics. Finally, the return level values were estimated with both GEV and GPD and with the three different estimation methods, revealing that the selected method can affect the return level values for both the parameter of precipitation and temperature.

Changes in extremely hot days under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the HAPPI multi-model ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wehner, Michael; Stone, Dáithí; Mitchell, Dann; Shiogama, Hideo; Fischer, Erich; Graff, Lise S.; Kharin, Viatcheslav V.; Lierhammer, Ludwig; Sanderson, Benjamin; Krishnan, Harinarayan

2018-03-01

The half a degree additional warming, prognosis and projected impacts (HAPPI) experimental protocol provides a multi-model database to compare the effects of stabilizing anthropogenic global warming of 1.5 °C over preindustrial levels to 2.0 °C over these levels. The HAPPI experiment is based upon large ensembles of global atmospheric models forced by sea surface temperature and sea ice concentrations plausible for these stabilization levels. This paper examines changes in extremes of high temperatures averaged over three consecutive days. Changes in this measure of extreme temperature are also compared to changes in hot season temperatures. We find that over land this measure of extreme high temperature increases from about 0.5 to 1.5 °C over present-day values in the 1.5 °C stabilization scenario, depending on location and model. We further find an additional 0.25 to 1.0 °C increase in extreme high temperatures over land in the 2.0 °C stabilization scenario. Results from the HAPPI models are consistent with similar results from the one available fully coupled climate model. However, a complicating factor in interpreting extreme temperature changes across the HAPPI models is their diversity of aerosol forcing changes.

A Wide Range Temperature Sensor Using SOI Technology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Patterson, Richard L.; Elbuluk, Malik E.; Hammoud, Ahmad

2009-01-01

Silicon-on-insulator (SOI) technology is becoming widely used in integrated circuit chips for its advantages over the conventional silicon counterpart. The decrease in leakage current combined with lower power consumption allows electronics to operate in a broader temperature range. This paper describes the performance of an SOIbased temperature sensor under extreme temperatures and thermal cycling. The sensor comprised of a temperature-to-frequency relaxation oscillator circuit utilizing an SOI precision timer chip. The circuit was evaluated under extreme temperature exposure and thermal cycling between -190 C and +210 C. The results indicate that the sensor performed well over the entire test temperature range and it was able to re-start at extreme temperatures.

Avian thermoregulation in the heat: evaporative cooling capacity of arid-zone Caprimulgiformes from two continents.

PubMed

Talbot, William A; McWhorter, Todd J; Gerson, Alexander R; McKechnie, Andrew E; Wolf, Blair O

2017-10-01

Birds in the order Caprimulgiformes (nightjars and allies) have a remarkable capacity for thermoregulation over a wide range of environmental temperatures, exhibiting pronounced heterothermy in cool conditions and extreme heat tolerance at high environmental temperatures. We measured thermoregulatory responses to acute heat stress in three species of Caprimulgiformes that nest in areas of extreme heat and aridity, the common poorwill ( Phalaenoptilus nuttallii : Caprimulgidae) and lesser nighthawk ( Chordeiles acutipennis : Caprimulgidae) in the Sonoran Desert of Arizona, and the Australian owlet-nightjar ( Aegotheles cristatus : Aegothelidae) in the mallee woodlands of South Australia. We exposed wild-caught birds to progressively increasing air temperatures ( T a ) and measured resting metabolic rate (RMR), evaporative water loss (EWL), body temperature ( T b ) and heat tolerance limit (HTL; the maximum T a reached). Comparatively low RMR values were observed in all species (0.35, 0.36 and 0.40 W for the poorwill, nighthawk and owlet-nightjar, respectively), with T b approximating T a at 40°C and mild hyperthermia occurring as T a reached the HTL. Nighthawks and poorwills reached HTLs of 60 and 62°C, respectively, whereas the owlet-nightjar had a HTL of 52°C. RMR increased gradually above minima at T a of 42, 42 and 35°C, and reached 1.7, 1.9 and 2.0 times minimum resting values at HTLs in the poorwill, nighthawk and owlet-nightjar, respectively. EWL increased rapidly and linearly as T a exceeded T b and resulted in maximum rates of evaporative heat dissipation equivalent to 237-424% of metabolic heat production. Bouts of gular flutter resulted in large transient increases in evaporative heat loss (50-123%) accompanied by only small increments in RMR (<5%). The cavity-nesting/roosting owlet-nightjar had a lower HTL and less efficient evaporative cooling compared with the species that nest and/or roost on open desert surfaces. The high efficiency of gular flutter for evaporative cooling, combined with mild hyperthermia, provides the physiological basis for defending T b well below T a in extreme heat and is comparable to the efficient cooling observed in arid-zone columbids in which cutaneous EWL is the predominant cooling pathway. © 2017. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

Assessing the vulnerability of the transportation industry of Ukraine to future climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khomenko, Inna

2017-04-01

Climate change will affect transportation primarily through increases in several types of weather and climate extremes. The impacts will vary by mode of transportation and region of the country, but they will be widespread and costly in both human and economic terms and will require significant changes in the planning, design, construction, operation, and maintenance of transportation systems. In the study impact of climate change on operation of road transport are analysed on the basis of RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Data contains series of daily mean, maximum and minimum temperature, daily liquid (or mixed) and solid precipitation, daily mean relative humidity and daily mean and maximum wind speed, obtained for the period of 2011 to 2050 for 28 cities distributed evenly across Ukraine. Spatial and temporal distributions of meteorological variables are obtained. The statistic characteristics obtained were compared with the correspondent climate normals and highway-related temporal changeability is determined. Frequency of freezing rain, wet snow, very hot days, droughts, fogs, ice-covered ground, slippery wet ground, ice and snow slippery coat are investigated. Climate and economic risks to the road transport network are assessed. Maps of spatial distribution of risk assessment are obtained. The results obtained show typical weather pattern is changed and climate and weather extreme influencing on operation of road transport are more frequent for the both scenarios, but for the RCP 8.5 scenario hazard weather occurs more often. During the period of 2011-2050 significant climate warming (by 2-3°C) is registered. Extreme temperatures are observed more frequently. High temperatures bring on growth in frequency of wildfires and heat waves. Annual precipitation amount decreases, except the western mountain and northern regions, where precipitation amount increase on 35%. Increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation can produce droughts in southern, eastern and central regions. But growth in precipitation in mountain region can cause flooding and landslides. Strong increase in mixed precipitation and significant reduction in ice and liquid precipitation take place for all territory of Ukraine. In the southern region ice precipitation is virtually vanished and observed only 2-3 days per year. Growth of mixed precipitation causes increase in severe weather events such as freezing precipitation, ice-covered ground and snow slippery coat.

Application of multivariable search techniques to structural design optimization

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jones, R. T.; Hague, D. S.

1972-01-01

Multivariable optimization techniques are applied to a particular class of minimum weight structural design problems: the design of an axially loaded, pressurized, stiffened cylinder. Minimum weight designs are obtained by a variety of search algorithms: first- and second-order, elemental perturbation, and randomized techniques. An exterior penalty function approach to constrained minimization is employed. Some comparisons are made with solutions obtained by an interior penalty function procedure. In general, it would appear that an interior penalty function approach may not be as well suited to the class of design problems considered as the exterior penalty function approach. It is also shown that a combination of search algorithms will tend to arrive at an extremal design in a more reliable manner than a single algorithm. The effect of incorporating realistic geometrical constraints on stiffener cross-sections is investigated. A limited comparison is made between minimum weight cylinders designed on the basis of a linear stability analysis and cylinders designed on the basis of empirical buckling data. Finally, a technique for locating more than one extremal is demonstrated.

Extreme High-Temperature Events Over East Asia in 1.5°C and 2°C Warmer Futures: Analysis of NCAR CESM Low-Warming Experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Donghuan; Zhou, Tianjun; Zou, Liwei; Zhang, Wenxia; Zhang, Lixia

2018-02-01

Extreme high-temperature events have large socioeconomic and human health impacts. East Asia (EA) is a populous region, and it is crucial to assess the changes in extreme high-temperature events in this region under different climate change scenarios. The Community Earth System Model low-warming experiment data were applied to investigate the changes in the mean and extreme high temperatures in EA under 1.5°C and 2°C warming conditions above preindustrial levels. The results show that the magnitude of warming in EA is approximately 0.2°C higher than the global mean. Most populous subregions, including eastern China, the Korean Peninsula, and Japan, will see more intense, more frequent, and longer-lasting extreme temperature events under 1.5°C and 2°C warming. The 0.5°C lower warming will help avoid 35%-46% of the increases in extreme high-temperature events in terms of intensity, frequency, and duration in EA with maximal avoidance values (37%-49%) occurring in Mongolia. Thus, it is beneficial for EA to limit the warming target to 1.5°C rather than 2°C.

Charge density wave behavior and order-disorder in the antiferromagnetic metallic series Eu (Ga1 -xAlx)4

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stavinoha, Macy; Cooley, Joya A.; Minasian, Stefan G.; McQueen, Tyrel M.; Kauzlarich, Susan M.; Huang, C.-L.; Morosan, E.

2018-05-01

The solid solution Eu (Ga1-xAlx) 4 was grown in single crystal form to reveal a rich variety of crystallographic, magnetic, and electronic properties that differ from the isostructural end compounds EuGa4 and EuAl4, despite the similar covalent radii and electronic configurations of Ga and Al. Here we report the onset of magnetic spin reorientation and metamagnetic transitions for x =0 -1 evidenced by magnetization and temperature-dependent specific heat measurements. TN changes nonmonotonously with x , and it reaches a maximum around 20 K for x =0.50 , where the a lattice parameter also shows an extreme (minimum) value. Anomalies in the temperature-dependent resistivity consistent with charge density wave behavior exist only for x =0.50 and 1. Density functional theory calculations show increased polarization between the Ga-Al covalent bonds in the x =0.50 structure compared to the end compounds, such that crystallographic order and chemical pressure are proposed as the causes of the charge density wave behavior.

Carbon metabolism of the cryptoendolithic microbiota from the Antarctic desert

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vestal, J. R.; Friedmann, E. I. (Principal Investigator)

1988-01-01

The carbon metabolism of the cryptoendolithic microbiota of sandstones from the Ross Desert of Antarctica was studied in situ and in vitro. Organic and inorganic carbon compounds were metabolized by the microbiota, with bicarbonate incorporation into community lipids occurring primarily in the light. Light intensity affected the photometabolism of carbon with a photosynthesis-intensity response optimum at about 200 to 300 micromoles of photons per m2 per s. Photosynthesis was also affected by temperature, with a minimum activity at -5 degrees C, an optimum activity at 15 degrees C, and complete inhibition at 35 degrees C, indicating that the cryptoendolithic community was psychrophilic. The primary source of CO2 for photosynthesis in situ was the atmosphere. CO2 may also be photometabolized by using the carbon produced from respiration within the endolithic community. Photosynthesis occurred maximally when the microbiota was wet with liquid water and to a lesser extent in a humid atmosphere. This simple microbial community, therefore, exists under extremes of water, light, and temperature stress which affect and control its metabolism.

Experiments on 1,000 km/s flyer acceleration and collisions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karasik, Max; Weaver, J. L.; Aglitskiy, Y.; Kehne, D. M.; Zalesak, S. T.; Velikovich, A. L.; Oh, J.; Serlin, V.; Obenschain, S. P.

2012-10-01

We will present results from follow-on experiments to the record-high velocities achieved using the ultra-uniform deep-uv drive of the Nike KrF laser [Karasik et al, Phys. Plasmas 17, 056317 (2010)], in which highly accelerated planar foils of deuterated polystyrene were made to collide with a witness foil to produce ˜1 Gbar shock pressures and result in heating of matter to thermonuclear temperatures. Such velocities may indicate a path to lower minimum energy required for central ignition. Still higher velocities and higher target densities are required for impact fast ignition. New results give velocity of >1,100 km/s achieved through improvements in pulseshaping. Variation of second foil parameters results in significant change in fusion neutron production on impact. In-flight target density is inferred from target heating upon collision via DD neutron time-of-flight ion temperature measurement. Availability of pressures generated by collisions of such highly accelerated flyers may provide an experimental platform for study of matter at extreme conditions. Work is supported by US DOE (NNSA).

The impact of heat waves on surface urban heat island and local economy in Cluj-Napoca city, Romania

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herbel, Ioana; Croitoru, Adina-Eliza; Rus, Adina Viorica; Roşca, Cristina Florina; Harpa, Gabriela Victoria; Ciupertea, Antoniu-Flavius; Rus, Ionuţ

2017-07-01

The association between heat waves and the urban heat island effect can increase the impact on environment and society inducing biophysical hazards. Heat stress and their associated public health problems are among the most frequent. This paper explores the heat waves impact on surface urban heat island and on the local economy loss during three heat periods in Cluj-Napoca city in the summer of 2015. The heat wave events were identified based on daily maximum temperature, and they were divided into three classes considering the intensity threshold: moderate heat waves (daily maximum temperature exceeding the 90th percentile), severe heat waves (daily maximum temperature over the 95th percentile), and extremely severe heat waves (daily maximum temperature exceeding the 98th percentile). The minimum length of an event was of minimum three consecutive days. The surface urban heat island was detected based on land surface temperature derived from Landsat 8 thermal infrared data, while the economic impact was estimated based on data on work force structure and work productivity in Cluj-Napoca derived from the data released by Eurostat, National Bank of Romania, and National Institute of Statistics. The results indicate that the intensity and spatial extension of surface urban heat island could be governed by the magnitude of the heat wave event, but due to the low number of satellite images available, we should consider this information only as preliminary results. Thermal infrared remote sensing has proven to be a very efficient method to study surface urban heat island, due to the fact that the synoptic conditions associated with heat wave events usually favor cloud free image. The resolution of the OLI_TIRS sensor provided good results for a mid-extension city, but the low revisiting time is still a drawback. The potential economic loss was calculated for the working days during heat waves and the estimated loss reached more than 2.5 mil. EUR for each heat wave day at city scale, cumulating more than 38 mil. EUR for the three cases considered.

Physiological minimum temperatures for root growth in seven common European broad-leaved tree species.

PubMed

Schenker, Gabriela; Lenz, Armando; Körner, Christian; Hoch, Günter

2014-03-01

Temperature is the most important factor driving the cold edge distribution limit of temperate trees. Here, we identified the minimum temperatures for root growth in seven broad-leaved tree species, compared them with the species' natural elevational limits and identified morphological changes in roots produced near their physiological cold limit. Seedlings were exposed to a vertical soil-temperature gradient from 20 to 2 °C along the rooting zone for 18 weeks. In all species, the bulk of roots was produced at temperatures above 5 °C. However, the absolute minimum temperatures for root growth differed among species between 2.3 and 4.2 °C, with those species that reach their natural distribution limits at higher elevations also tending to have lower thermal limits for root tissue formation. In all investigated species, the roots produced at temperatures close to the thermal limit were pale, thick, unbranched and of reduced mechanical strength. Across species, the specific root length (m g(-1) root) was reduced by, on average, 60% at temperatures below 7 °C. A significant correlation of minimum temperatures for root growth with the natural high elevation limits of the investigated species indicates species-specific thermal requirements for basic physiological processes. Although these limits are not necessarily directly causative for the upper distribution limit of a species, they seem to belong to a syndrome of adaptive processes for life at low temperatures. The anatomical changes at the cold limit likely hint at the mechanisms impeding meristematic activity at low temperatures.

Role of absorbing aerosols on hot extremes in India in a GCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mondal, A.; Sah, N.; Venkataraman, C.; Patil, N.

2017-12-01

Temperature extremes and heat waves in North-Central India during the summer months of March through June are known for causing significant impact in terms of human health, productivity and mortality. While greenhouse gas-induced global warming is generally believed to intensify the magnitude and frequency of such extremes, aerosols are usually associated with an overall cooling, by virtue of their dominant radiation scattering nature, in most world regions. Recently, large-scale atmospheric conditions leading to heat wave and extreme temperature conditions have been analysed for the North-Central Indian region. However, the role of absorbing aerosols, including black carbon and dust, is still not well understood, in mediating hot extremes in the region. In this study, we use 30-year simulations from a chemistry-coupled atmosphere-only General Circulation Model (GCM), ECHAM6-HAM2, forced with evolving aerosol emissions in an interactive aerosol module, along with observed sea surface temperatures, to examine large-scale and mesoscale conditions during hot extremes in India. The model is first validated with observed gridded temperature and reanalysis data, and is found to represent observed variations in temperature in the North-Central region and concurrent large-scale atmospheric conditions during high temperature extremes realistically. During these extreme events, changes in near surface properties include a reduction in single scattering albedo and enhancement in short-wave solar heating rate, compared to climatological conditions. This is accompanied by positive anomalies of black carbon and dust aerosol optical depths. We conclude that the large-scale atmospheric conditions such as the presence of anticyclones and clear skies, conducive to heat waves and high temperature extremes, are exacerbated by absorbing aerosols in North-Central India. Future air quality regulations are expected to reduce sulfate particles and their masking of GHG warming. It is concurrently important to mitigate emissions of warming black carbon particles, to manage future climate change-induced hot extremes.

Application of genetic algorithms in nonlinear heat conduction problems.

PubMed

Kadri, Muhammad Bilal; Khan, Waqar A

2014-01-01

Genetic algorithms are employed to optimize dimensionless temperature in nonlinear heat conduction problems. Three common geometries are selected for the analysis and the concept of minimum entropy generation is used to determine the optimum temperatures under the same constraints. The thermal conductivity is assumed to vary linearly with temperature while internal heat generation is assumed to be uniform. The dimensionless governing equations are obtained for each selected geometry and the dimensionless temperature distributions are obtained using MATLAB. It is observed that GA gives the minimum dimensionless temperature in each selected geometry.

A finite state, finite memory minimum principle, part 2. [a discussion of game theory, signaling, stochastic processes, and control theory

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sandell, N. R., Jr.; Athans, M.

1975-01-01

The development of the theory of the finite - state, finite - memory (FSFM) stochastic control problem is discussed. The sufficiency of the FSFM minimum principle (which is in general only a necessary condition) was investigated. By introducing the notion of a signaling strategy as defined in the literature on games, conditions under which the FSFM minimum principle is sufficient were determined. This result explicitly interconnects the information structure of the FSFM problem with its optimality conditions. The min-H algorithm for the FSFM problem was studied. It is demonstrated that a version of the algorithm always converges to a particular type of local minimum termed a person - by - person extremal.

It's the Heat AND the Humidity -- Assessment of Extreme Heat Scenarios to Enable the Assessment of Climate Impacts on Public Health

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crosson, William L; Al-Hamdan, Mohammad Z.; Economou, Sigrid, A.; Estes, Maurice G.; Estes, Sue M.; Puckett, Mark; Quattrochi, Dale A

2013-01-01

In the United States, extreme heat is the most deadly weather-related hazard. In the face of a warming climate and urbanization, which contributes to local-scale urban heat islands, it is very likely that extreme heat events (EHEs) will become more common and more severe in the U.S. In a NASA-funded project supporting the National Climate Assessment, we are providing historical and future measures of extreme heat to enable assessments of the impacts of heat on public health over the coterminous U.S. We use atmospheric temperature and humidity information from meteorological reanalysis and from Global Climate Models (GCMs) to provide data on past and future heat events. The project s emphasis is on providing assessments of the magnitude, frequency and geographic distribution of extreme heat in the U.S. to facilitate public health studies. In our approach, long-term climate change is captured with GCM output, and the temporal and spatial characteristics of short-term extremes are represented by the reanalysis data. Two future time horizons, 2040 and 2090, are the focus of future assessments; these are compared to the recent past period of 1981-2000. We are characterizing regional-scale temperature and humidity conditions using GCM output for two climate change scenarios (A2 and A1B) defined in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). For each future period, 20 years of multi-model GCM output have been analyzed to develop a heat stress climatology based on statistics of extreme heat indicators. Differences between the two future and past periods have been used to define temperature and humidity changes on a monthly time scale and regional spatial scale. These changes, combined with hourly historical meteorological data at a spatial scale (12 km) much finer than that of GCMs, enable us to create future climate realizations, from which we compute the daily heat stress measures and related spatially-specific climatological fields. These include the mean annual number of days above certain thresholds of maximum and minimum air temperatures, heat indices and a new heat stress variable that gives an integrated measure of heat stress (and relief) over the course of a day. Comparisons are made between projected (2040 and 2090) and past (1990) heat stress statistics. All output is being provided at the 12 km spatial scale and will also be aggregated to the county level, which is a popular scale of analysis for public health researchers. County-level statistics will be made available by our collaborators at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) via the Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (WONDER) system. CDC WONDER makes the information resources of the CDC available to public health professionals and the general public. This addition of heat stress measures to CDC WONDER will allow decision and policy makers to assess the impact of alternative approaches to optimize the public health response to EHEs. It will also allow public health researchers and policy makers to better include such heat stress measures in the context of national health data available in the CDC WONDER system. The users will be able to spatially and temporally query public health and heat-related data sets and create county-level maps and statistical charts of such data across the coterminous U.S.

Time trends in minimum mortality temperatures in Castile-La Mancha (Central Spain): 1975-2003

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miron, Isidro J.; Criado-Alvarez, Juan José; Diaz, Julio; Linares, Cristina; Mayoral, Sheila; Montero, Juan Carlos

2008-03-01

The relationship between air temperature and human mortality is described as non-linear, with mortality tending to rise in response to increasingly hot or cold ambient temperatures from a given minimum mortality or optimal comfort temperature, which varies from some areas to others according to their climatic and socio-demographic characteristics. Changes in these characteristics within any specific region could modify this relationship. This study sought to examine the time trend in the maximum temperature of minimum organic-cause mortality in Castile-La Mancha, from 1975 to 2003. The analysis was performed by using daily series of maximum temperatures and organic-cause mortality rates grouped into three decades (1975-1984, 1985-1994, 1995-2003) to compare confidence intervals ( p < 0.05) obtained by estimating the 10-yearly mortality rates corresponding to the maximum temperatures of minimum mortality calculated for each decade. Temporal variations in the effects of cold and heat on mortality were ascertained by means of ARIMA models (Box-Jenkins) and cross-correlation functions (CCF) at seven lags. We observed a significant decrease in comfort temperature (from 34.2°C to 27.8°C) between the first two decades in the Province of Toledo, along with a growing number of significant lags in the summer CFF (1, 3 and 5, respectively). The fall in comfort temperature is attributable to the increase in the effects of heat on mortality, due, in all likelihood, to the percentage increase in the elderly population.

Experimental study on the minimum ignition temperature of coal dust clouds in oxy-fuel combustion atmospheres.

PubMed

Wu, Dejian; Norman, Frederik; Verplaetsen, Filip; Van den Bulck, Eric

2016-04-15

BAM furnace apparatus tests were conducted to investigate the minimum ignition temperature of coal dusts (MITC) in O2/CO2 atmospheres with an O2 mole fraction from 20 to 50%. Three coal dusts: Indonesian Sebuku coal, Pittsburgh No.8 coal and South African coal were tested. Experimental results showed that the dust explosion risk increases significantly with increasing O2 mole fraction by reducing the minimum ignition temperature for the three tested coal dust clouds dramatically (even by 100°C). Compared with conventional combustion, the inhibiting effect of CO2 was found to be comparatively large in dust clouds, particularly for the coal dusts with high volatile content. The retardation effect of the moisture content on the ignition of dust clouds was also found to be pronounced. In addition, a modified steady-state mathematical model based on heterogeneous reaction was proposed to interpret the observed experimental phenomena and to estimate the ignition mechanism of coal dust clouds under minimum ignition temperature conditions. The analysis revealed that heterogeneous ignition dominates the ignition mechanism for sub-/bituminous coal dusts under minimum ignition temperature conditions, but the decrease of coal maturity facilitates homogeneous ignition. These results improve our understanding of the ignition behaviour and the explosion risk of coal dust clouds in oxy-fuel combustion atmospheres. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Robust Platinum Resistor Thermometer (PRT) Sensors and Reliable Bonding for Space Missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cucullu, Gordy C., III; Mikhaylov, Rebecca; Rajeshuni, Ramesham; Petkov, Mihail; Hills, David; Uribe, Jose; Okuno, James; De Los Santos, Greg

2013-01-01

Platinum resistance thermometers (PRTs) provide accurate temperature measurements over a wide temperature range and are used extensively on space missions due to their simplicity and linearity. A standard on spacecraft, PRTs are used to provide precision temperature control and vehicle health assessment. This paper reviews the extensive reliability testing of platinum resistor thermometer sensors (PRTs) and bonding methods used on the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) mission and for the upcoming Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission. During the Mars Exploration Rover (MER) mission, several key, JPL-packaged PRTs failed on those rovers prior to and within 1-Sol of landing due to thermally induced stresses. Similar failures can be traced back to other JPL missions dating back thirty years. As a result, MSL sought out a PRT more forgiving to the packaging configurations used at JPL, and extensively tested the Honeywell HRTS-5760-B-U-0-12 sensor to successfully demonstrate suitable robustness to thermal cycling. Specifically, this PRT was cycled 2,000 times, simulating three Martian winters and summers. The PRTs were bonded to six substrate materials (Aluminum 7050, treated Magnesium AZ231-B, Stainless Steel 304, Albemet, Titanium 6AL4V, and G-10), using four different aerospace adhesives--two epoxies and two silicones--that conformed to MSL's low out-gassing requirements. An additional epoxy was tested in a shorter environmental cycling test, when the need for a different temperature range adhesive was necessary for mobility and actuator hardware late in the fabrication process. All of this testing, along with electrostatic discharge (ESD) and destructive part analyses, demonstrate that this PRT is highly robust, and not subject to the failure of PRTs on previous missions. While there were two PRTs that failed during fabrication, to date there have been no in-flight PRT failures on MSL, including those on the Curiosity rover. Since MSL, the sensor has gone through a change in construction such that the manufacturer significantly restricts the minimum temperature. However, significant subsequent testing was performed with this new version of the part to show that it indeed is still robust to at least Mars minimum temperatures of -135(sup o)C. The additional completed testing will be described. This work has resulted in a successful sensor package qualification and a reliable bonding method suitable for use over large temperature extremes.

Robust Platinum Resistor Thermometer (PRT) Sensors and Reliable Bonding for Space Missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cucullu, Gordy C. III; Mikhaylov, Rebecca; Ramesham, Rajeshuni; Petkov, Mihail; Hills, David; Uribe, Jose; Okuno, James; De Los Santos, Greg

2013-01-01

Platinum resistance thermometers (PRTs) provide accurate temperature measurements over a wide temperature range and are used extensively on space missions due to their simplicity and linearity. A standard on spacecraft, PRTs are used to provide precision temperature control and vehicle health assessment. This paper reviews the extensive reliability testing of platinum resistor thermometer sensors (PRTs) and bonding methods used on the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) mission and for the upcoming Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission. During the Mars Exploration Rover (MER) mission, several key, JPL-packaged PRTs failed on those rovers prior to and within 1-Sol of landing due to thermally induced stresses. Similar failures can be traced back to other JPL missions dating back thirty years. As a result, MSL sought out a PRT more forgiving to the packaging configurations used at JPL, and extensively tested the Honeywell HRTS-5760-B-U-0-12 sensor to successfully demonstrate suitable robustness to thermal cycling. Specifically, this PRT was cycled 2,000 times, simulating three Martian winters and summers. The PRTs were bonded to six substrate materials (Aluminum 7050, treated Magnesium AZ231-B, Stainless Steel 304, Albemet, Titanium 6AL4V, and G-10), using four different aerospace adhesives--two epoxies and two silicones--that conformed to MSL's low out-gassing requirements. An additional epoxy was tested in a shorter environmental cycling test, when the need for a different temperature range adhesive was necessary for mobility and actuator hardware late in the fabrication process. All of this testing, along with electrostatic discharge (ESD) and destructive part analyses, demonstrate that this PRT is highly robust, and not subject to the failure of PRTs on previous missions. While there were two PRTs that failed during fabrication, to date there have been no in-flight PRT failures on MSL, including those on the Curiosity rover. Since MSL, the sensor has gone through a change in construction such that the manufacturer significantly restricts the minimum temperature. However, significant subsequent testing was performed with this new version of the part to show that it indeed is still robust to at least Mars minimum temperatures of -135 degrees Centigrade. The additional completed testing will be described. This work has resulted in a successful sensor package qualification and a reliable bonding method suitable for use over large temperature extremes

Moderate climate signature in cranial anatomy of late holocene human populations from Southern South America.

PubMed

Paula Menéndez, Lumila

2018-02-01

The aim of this study is to analyze the association between cranial variation and climate in order to discuss their role during the diversification of southern South American populations. Therefore, the specific objectives are: (1) to explore the spatial pattern of cranial variation with regard to the climatic diversity of the region, and (2) to evaluate the differential impact that the climatic factors may have had on the shape and size of the diverse cranial structures studied. The variation in shape and size of 361 crania was studied, registering 62 3D landmarks that capture shape and size variation in the face, cranial vault, and base. Mean, minimum, and maximum annual temperature, as well as mean annual precipitation, but also diet and altitude, were matched for each population sample. A PCA, as well as spatial statistical techniques, including kriging, regression, and multimodel inference were employed. The facial skeleton size presents a latitudinal pattern which is partially associated with temperature diversity. Both diet and altitude are the variables that mainly explain the skull shape variation, although mean annual temperature also plays a role. The association between climate factors and cranial variation is low to moderate, mean annual temperature explains almost 40% of the entire skull, facial skeleton and cranial vault shape variation, while annual precipitation and minimum annual temperature only contribute to the morphological variation when considered together with maximum annual temperature. The cranial base is the structure less associated with climate diversity. These results suggest that climate factors may have had a partial impact on the facial and vault shape, and therefore contributed moderately to the diversification of southern South American populations, while diet and altitude might have had a stronger impact. Therefore, cranial variation at the southern cone has been shaped both by random and nonrandom factors. Particularly, the influence of climate on skull shape has probably been the result of directional selection. This study supports that, although cranial vault is the cranial structure more associated to mean annual temperature, the impact of climate signature on morphology decreases when populations from extreme cold environments are excluded from the analysis. Additionally, it shows that the extent of the geographical scales analyzed, as well as differential sampling may lead to different results regarding the role of ecological factors and evolutionary processes on cranial morphology. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Thermal regulation of methane hydrate dissociation: Implications for gas production models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Circone, S.; Kirby, S.H.; Stern, L.A.

2005-01-01

Thermal self-regulation of methane hydrate dissociation at pressure, temperature conditions along phase boundaries, illustrated by experiment in this report, is a significant effect with potential relevance to gas production from gas hydrate. In surroundings maintained at temperatures above the ice melting point, the temperature in the vicinity of dissociating methane hydrate will decrease because heat flow is insufficient to balance the heat absorbed by the endothermic reaction: CH4??nH2O (s) = CH4 (g) + nH2O (l). Temperature decreases until either all of the hydrate dissociates or a phase boundary is reached. At pressures above the quadruple point, the temperature-limiting phase boundary is that of the dissociation reaction itself. At lower pressures, the minimum temperature is limited by the H2O solid/liquid boundary. This change in the temperature-limiting phase boundary constrains the pressure, temperature conditions of the quadruple point for the CH4-H2O system to 2.55 ?? 0.02 MPa and 272.85 ?? 0.03 K. At pressures below the quadruple point, hydrate dissociation proceeds as the liquid H2O produced by dissociation freezes. In the laboratory experiments, dissociation is not impeded by the formation of ice byproduct per se; instead rates are proportional to the heat flow from the surroundings. This is in contrast to the extremely slow dissociation rates observed when surrounding temperatures are below the H2O solid/liquid boundary, where no liquid water is present. This "anomalous" or "self" preservation behavior, most pronounced near 268 K, cannot be accessed when surrounding temperatures are above the H2O solid/liquid boundary. ?? 2005 American Chemical Society.

Threshold Evaluation of Emergency Risk Communication for Health Risks Related to Hazardous Ambient Temperature.

PubMed

Liu, Yang; Hoppe, Brenda O; Convertino, Matteo

2018-04-10

Emergency risk communication (ERC) programs that activate when the ambient temperature is expected to cross certain extreme thresholds are widely used to manage relevant public health risks. In practice, however, the effectiveness of these thresholds has rarely been examined. The goal of this study is to test if the activation criteria based on extreme temperature thresholds, both cold and heat, capture elevated health risks for all-cause and cause-specific mortality and morbidity in the Minneapolis-St. Paul Metropolitan Area. A distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) combined with a quasi-Poisson generalized linear model is used to derive the exposure-response functions between daily maximum heat index and mortality (1998-2014) and morbidity (emergency department visits; 2007-2014). Specific causes considered include cardiovascular, respiratory, renal diseases, and diabetes. Six extreme temperature thresholds, corresponding to 1st-3rd and 97th-99th percentiles of local exposure history, are examined. All six extreme temperature thresholds capture significantly increased relative risks for all-cause mortality and morbidity. However, the cause-specific analyses reveal heterogeneity. Extreme cold thresholds capture increased mortality and morbidity risks for cardiovascular and respiratory diseases and extreme heat thresholds for renal disease. Percentile-based extreme temperature thresholds are appropriate for initiating ERC targeting the general population. Tailoring ERC by specific causes may protect some but not all individuals with health conditions exacerbated by hazardous ambient temperature exposure. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kirkpatrick, R. C.

Nuclear fusion was discovered experimentally in 1933-34 and other charged particle nuclear reactions were documented shortly thereafter. Work in earnest on the fusion ignition problem began with Edward Teller's group at Los Alamos during the war years. His group quantified all the important basic atomic and nuclear processes and summarized their interactions. A few years later, the success of the early theory developed at Los Alamos led to very successful thermonuclear weapons, but also to decades of unsuccessful attempts to harness fusion as an energy source of the future. The reasons for this history are many, but it seems appropriatemore » to review some of the basics with the objective of identifying what is essential for success and what is not. This tutorial discusses only the conditions required for ignition in small fusion targets and how the target design impacts driver requirements. Generally speaking, the driver must meet the energy, power and power density requirements needed by the fusion target. The most relevant parameters for ignition of the fusion fuel are the minimum temperature and areal density (rhoR), but these parameters set secondary conditions that must be achieved, namely an implosion velocity, target size and pressure, which are interrelated. Despite the apparent simplicity of inertial fusion targets, there is not a single mode of fusion ignition, and the necessary combination of minimum temperature and areal density depends on the mode of ignition. However, by providing a magnetic field of sufficient strength, the conditions needed for fusion ignition can be drastically altered. Magnetized target fusion potentially opens up a vast parameter space between the extremes of magnetic and inertial fusion.« less

Core temperature variation is associated with heart rate variability independent of cardiac index: a study of 278 trauma patients.

PubMed

Mowery, Nathan T; Morris, John A; Jenkins, Judith M; Ozdas, Asli; Norris, Patrick R

2011-10-01

The purpose of this study is to determine if temperature extremes are associated with reduced heart rate variability (HRV) and "cardiac uncoupling." This was a retrospective, observational cohort study performed on 278 trauma intensive care unit admissions that had continuous HR, cardiac index (CI), and core temperature data from "thermodilution" Swan-Ganz catheter. Dense (captured second-by-second) physiologic data were divided into 5-minute intervals (N = 136 133; 11 344 hours of data). Mean CI, mean temperature, and integer HR SD were computed for each interval. Critically low HRV was defined as HR SD from 0.3 to 0.6 beats per minute. Temperature extremes were defined as less than 36°C or greater than 39°C. Low HRV and CI vary with temperature. Temperature extremes are associated with increased risk for critically low HRV (odds ratio, >1.8). Cardiac index increases with temperature until hyperthermia (>40°C). At temperature extremes, changes in CI were not explained solely by changes in HR. The conclusions of this study are (1) temperature extremes are associated with low HRV, potentially reflecting cardiac autonomic dysfunction; (2) CI increases with temperature; and (3) HRV provides additional physiologic information unobtainable via current invasive cardiac monitoring and current vital signs. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Long-term analysis and appropriate metrics of climate change in Mongolia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jamiyansharav, Khishigbayar

This study addresses three important issues related to long-term climate change study in Mongolia. Mongolia is one of the biggest land-locked countries in Asia and 75--80 percent of the land is rangeland, which is highly vulnerable to climate change. Climate will affect many sectors critical to the country's economic, social, and ecological welfare. Therefore, it is regionally and globally important to evaluate climate change in Mongolia. Chapter 1 discusses the qualitative and descriptive study on exposure characteristics of the 17 Mongolian meteorological stations, which are part of the Global Climate Observing Network (GCON). The global average temperature anomalies are based in part on the GCON stations' meteorological data. To document the possible exposures surrounding the weather stations, the Mongolian meteorological stations were surveyed during July--August 2005. From the total 17 stations, 47 percent were determined strongly influenced by urban character landscape, 41 percent received some anthropogenic influences, and 12 percent had very little to no anthropogenic influences. Even though the Mongolian meteorological stations' exposure characteristics are better than the European and North American stations' the strict adherence in following WMO guidelines is important and urgently needed. Chapter 2 evaluates the long-term (1961--2005) trends in seasonal and annual surface mean, maximum, minimum temperatures and precipitation. Furthermore, this study compares the long-term mean temperature trends with decadal (1998--2007) trends. This chapter also discusses the extreme climate indices on spatial and temporal scales. According to the results, the long-term linear temperature trends show a clear increasing trend whereas the decadal trends show the decreasing trend mostly in winter and spring. The analysis of extreme indices (1961--2001) indicate that most of the stations frost and icing days are decreased and summer days, tropical nights, monthly maximum value of daily minimum, maximum temperatures and growing season length are increased. Precipitation indices varied substantially and there were no unified temporal and spatial pattern. In addition to that, I am suggesting effective temperature as an appropriate metric to evaluate surface heat change because it counts not only air temperature but also surface humidity. Chapter 3 discusses a case study of grazing intensity on surface energy budgets. To evaluate the land atmospheric interactions over the grassland area depending on the different grazing intensity I conducted the case study over the Shortgrass Steppe Long-Term Ecological Research site on Northern Great Plains of US to imply the findings in semiarid shortgrass steppe of Mongolia. The study site has much of similarities with Mongolian shortgrass steppe and has more frequent, high quality data. This study evaluates the impact of grazing on microclimate and energy budgets in a dry (163 mm) and two near-normal (262 and 260 mm) precipitation years based on continuously measured 20 minute interval data. This study helps to describe surface energy partitioning in semi-arid grasslands that has long history of grazing. The main finding of the study is grazing has a potential impact on the energy partitioning under conditions of higher water availability, but not during dry conditions.

Relation between inflammables and ignition sources in aircraft environments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Scull, Wilfred E

1951-01-01

A literature survey was conducted to determine the relation between aircraft ignition sources and inflammables. Available literature applicable to the problem of aircraft fire hazards is analyzed and discussed. Data pertaining to the effect of many variables on ignition temperatures, minimum ignition pressures, minimum spark-ignition energies of inflammables, quenching distances of electrode configurations, and size of openings through which flame will not propagate are presented and discussed. Ignition temperatures and limits of inflammability of gasoline in air in different test environments, and the minimum ignition pressures and minimum size of opening for flame propagation in gasoline-air mixtures are included; inerting of gasoline-air mixtures is discussed.

Climate change, variability and extreme events : risk assessment and management strategies in a Peach cultivated area in Italy.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alfieri, Silvia Maria; De Lorenzi, Francesca; Basile, Angelo; Bonfante, Antonello; Missere, Daniele; Menenti, Massimo

2014-05-01

Climate change in Mediterranean area is likely to reduce precipitation amounts and to increase temperature thus affecting the timing of development stages and the productivity of crops. Further, extreme weather events are expected to increase in the future leading to significant increase in agricultural risk. Some strategies for effectively managing risks and adapting to climate change involve adjustments to irrigation management and use of different varieties. We quantified the risk on Peach production in an irrigated area of "Emilia Romagna" region ( Italy) taking into account the impact on crop yield due to climate change and variability and to extreme weather events as well as the ability of the agricultural system to modulate this impact (adaptive capacity) through changes in water and crop management. We have focused on climatic events causing insufficient water supply to crops, while taking into account the effect of climate on the duration and timing of phenological stages. Further, extreme maximum and minimum temperature events causing significant reduction of crop yield have been considered using phase-specific critical temperatures. In our study risk was assessed as the product of the probability of a damaging event (hazard), such as drought or extreme temperatures, and the estimated impact of such an event (vulnerability). To estimate vulnerability we took into account the possible options to reduce risk, by combining estimates of the sensitivity of the system (negative impact on crop yield) and its adaptive capacity. The latter was evaluated as the relative improvement due to alternate management options: the use of alternate varieties or the changes in irrigation management. Vulnerability was quantified using cultivar-specific thermal and hydrologic requirements of a set of cultivars determined by experimental data and from scientific literature. Critical temperatures determining a certain reduction of crop yield have been estimated and used to assess thermal hazard and vulnerability in sensitive phenological stages. Cultivar-specific yield response functions to water availability were used to assess the reduction of yield for a determinate management option. Downscaled climate scenarios have been used to calculate indicators of soil water availability and thermal times and to evaluate the variability of crop phenology in combination with critical temperatures. Two climate scenarios were considered: reference (1961-90) and future (2021-2050) climate, the former from climatic statistics on observed variables, and the latter from statistical downscaling of general circulation models (AOGCM). Management options were defined by combinations of irrigation strategies (optimal, rainfed and deficit) with use of alternate varieties. As regards hydrologic conditions, risk assessment has been done at landscape scale in all soil units within each study area. The mechanistic model SWAP (Soil-Water-Atmosphere-Plant model) of water flow in the soil-plant-atmosphere system was used to describe the hydrological conditions in response to climate and irrigation. Different farm management options were evaluated. In a moderate water shortage scenario, deficit irrigation was an effective strategy to cope with climate change risks. In a severe water shortage scenario, the study showed the potentiality of intra-specific biodiversity to reduce risk of yield losses, although costs should be evaluated against the benefits of each specific management option. The work was carried out within the Italian national project AGROSCENARI funded by the Ministry for Agricultural, Food and Forest Policies (MIPAAF, D.M. 8608/7303/2008)

Classification of resistance to passive motion using minimum probability of error criterion.

PubMed

Chan, H C; Manry, M T; Kondraske, G V

1987-01-01

Neurologists diagnose many muscular and nerve disorders by classifying the resistance to passive motion of patients' limbs. Over the past several years, a computer-based instrument has been developed for automated measurement and parameterization of this resistance. In the device, a voluntarily relaxed lower extremity is moved at constant velocity by a motorized driver. The torque exerted on the extremity by the machine is sampled, along with the angle of the extremity. In this paper a computerized technique is described for classifying a patient's condition as 'Normal' or 'Parkinson disease' (rigidity), from the torque versus angle curve for the knee joint. A Legendre polynomial, fit to the curve, is used to calculate a set of eight normally distributed features of the curve. The minimum probability of error approach is used to classify the curve as being from a normal or Parkinson disease patient. Data collected from 44 different subjects was processes and the results were compared with an independent physician's subjective assessment of rigidity. There is agreement in better than 95% of the cases, when all of the features are used.

Effect of temperature on the occurrence and distribution of colorado potato beetle (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) in China.

PubMed

Li, Chao; Liu, Huai; Huang, Fangneng; Cheng, Deng-Fa; Wang, Jin-Jun; Zhang, Yun-Hui; Sun, Jin-Rui; Guo, Wen-Chao

2014-04-01

Colorado potato beetle, Leptinotarsa decemlineata (Say), is the most destructive pest of potato in many countries of the world. It first invaded China from Kazakhstan in 1990s and now is a major pest of potato in many areas of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region (Xinjiang). The objective of this study was to determine the effect of temperature on the spread of Colorado potato beetle in China after its invasion. Cold temperature in winter (December) and high temperature in summer (July) were analyzed in accordance with the absence and presence of Colorado potato beetle in Xinjiang. The boundary between the absence and presence of Colorado potato beetle in Xinjiang nearly coincided with the -8°C isotherm of monthly mean minimum temperature in winter. The stress of the low temperature in winter for Colorado potato beetle basically disappeared in the southeastern Hexi Corridor in Gansu Province of China, suggesting that the Hexi Corridor is the best channel to prevent any long-distance invasions of Colorado potato beetle into the Central Plains region. However, in Turpan City in northeastern Xinjiang, the extremely hot weather in the summer prevents the local colonization of Colorado potato beetle. Furthermore, according to our monitoring, high temperature in summer also limited Colorado potato beetle to diffuse eastward through Turpan. Results of this study suggest that it is essential to strengthen inspection and quarantine measures to prevent any artificial transmissions of Colorado potato beetle spreading eastward and thus to ensure the sustainable production of potato and other Solanaceae crops in northwest regions of China.

Climatic indicators over Catalonia during the last century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Busto, M.; Prohom, M.

2010-09-01

The Meteorological Service of Catalonia releases a yearly bulletin whose main objective is to try to detect climate trends over Catalonia during the last decades. Climate indicators are obtained from the analysis of historical daily air temperature, sea temperature and rainfall series. Those series have been first completed, analyzed for quality control and homogenized to ensure its final reliability. Regarding homogenization, monthly air temperature series have been tested and corrected according to the methodology proposed by Caussinus and Mestre (2004). For the two longest air temperature series, the calculated correction factors have been transferred to the daily values following Vincent et al. (2002) recommendations, while no significant inhomogeneities have been detected for precipitation series. The analysis of temperature trends, for the period 1950-2010, of 17 selected climatic series spread across the territory shows a common temperature increase between +0.19 to +0.24 °C/decade. This warming trend is uniform and no specific sub-regional trends are detected. Furthermore, the seasonal approach reveals that mean maximum temperature increases at a higher rate than mean minimum temperature. The summer temperature rise is the most significant, between +0.32 and +0.44 °C/decade, while autumn is the only season showing no significant positive trend. The summer maximum temperature shows the highest increase, exceeding +0.39 °C/decade in all the 17 series. The climatic extremes analysis of the longest Catalan series (Ebre Observatory in Roquetes, Tarragona, since 1905 and Fabra Observatory in Barcelona since 1913) reveals an increase in the number of summer days, tropical nights, minimum of maximum temperature, warm days and warm nights, and a decrease in the number of frost days, cold nights, cold days and cold spell duration indicator. Concerning precipitation, the only significant trend is the reduction of snow days. These trends were calculated according to the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). The sea temperature trend in l'Estartit (NE coast of Catalonia, Costa Brava) since 1974 shows a steady increment in all the measured levels (surface, -20 m, -50 m and -80 m) of +0,33 °C/decade on average. Temperature increment is maximum at -20 m, with +0.36 °C/decade variation. Moreover, there is an increase in the sea level of +3.35 cm/decade. CAUSSINUS, H. and MESTRE, O. (2004): Detection and correction of artificial shifts in climate series. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C - Applied Statistics, 53, 405-425. VINCENT, L.A., ZHANG, X., BONSAL, B.R., HOGG, W.D. (2002): Homogenization of daily temperatures over Canada. Journal of Climate, 15, 1322-1334

Evaluation of COTS SiGe, SOI, and Mixed Signal Electronic Parts for Extreme Temperature Use in NASA Missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Patterson, Richard L.; Hammoud, Ahmad

2010-01-01

The NASA Electronic Parts and Packaging (NEPP) Program sponsors a task at the NASA Glenn Research Center titled "Reliability of SiGe, SOI, and Advanced Mixed Signal Devices for Cryogenic Space Missions." In this task COTS parts and flight-like are evaluated by determining their performance under extreme temperatures and thermal cycling. The results from the evaluations are published on the NEPP website and at professional conferences in order to disseminate information to mission planners and system designers. This presentation discusses the task and the 2010 highlights and technical results. Topics include extreme temperature operation of SiGe and SOI devices, all-silicon oscillators, a floating gate voltage reference, a MEMS oscillator, extreme temperature resistors and capacitors, and a high temperature silicon operational amplifier.

Forecast of Frost Days Based on Monthly Temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castellanos, M. T.; Tarquis, A. M.; Morató, M. C.; Saa-Requejo, A.

2009-04-01

Although frost can cause considerable crop damage and mitigation practices against forecasted frost exist, frost forecasting technologies have not changed for many years. The paper reports a new method to forecast the monthly number of frost days (FD) for several meteorological stations at Community of Madrid (Spain) based on successive application of two models. The first one is a stochastic model, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), that forecasts monthly minimum absolute temperature (tmin) and monthly average of minimum temperature (tminav) following Box-Jenkins methodology. The second model relates these monthly temperatures to minimum daily temperature distribution during one month. Three ARIMA models were identified for the time series analyzed with a stational period correspondent to one year. They present the same stational behavior (moving average differenced model) and different non-stational part: autoregressive model (Model 1), moving average differenced model (Model 2) and autoregressive and moving average model (Model 3). At the same time, the results point out that minimum daily temperature (tdmin), for the meteorological stations studied, followed a normal distribution each month with a very similar standard deviation through years. This standard deviation obtained for each station and each month could be used as a risk index for cold months. The application of Model 1 to predict minimum monthly temperatures showed the best FD forecast. This procedure provides a tool for crop managers and crop insurance companies to asses the risk of frost frequency and intensity, so that they can take steps to mitigate against frost damage and estimated the damage that frost would cost. This research was supported by Comunidad de Madrid Research Project 076/92. The cooperation of the Spanish National Meteorological Institute and the Spanish Ministerio de Agricultura, Pesca y Alimentation (MAPA) is gratefully acknowledged.

Five centuries of Central European temperature extremes reconstructed from tree-ring density and documentary evidence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Battipaglia, Giovanna; Frank, David; Büntgen, Ulf; Dobrovolný, Petr; Brázdil, Rudolf; Pfister, Christian; Esper, Jan

2010-06-01

Future climate change will likely influence the frequency and intensity of weather extremes. As such events are by definition rare, long records are required to understand their characteristics, drivers, and consequences on ecology and society. Herein we provide a unique perspective on regional-scale temperature extremes over the past millennium, using three tree-ring maximum latewood density (MXD) chronologies from higher elevations in the European Alps. We verify the tree-ring-based extremes using documentary evidences from Switzerland, the Czech Republic, and Central Europe that allowed the identification of 44 summer extremes over the 1550-2003 period. These events include cold temperatures in 1579, 1628, 1675, and 1816, as well as warm ones in 1811 and 2003. Prior to 1550, we provide new evidence for cold (e.g., 1068 and 1258) and warm (e.g., 1333) summers derived from the combined MXD records and thus help to characterize high-frequency temperature variability during medieval times. Spatial coherence of the reconstructed extremes is found over Switzerland, with most signatures even extending across Central Europe. We discuss potential limitations of the tree-ring and documentary archives, including the ( i) ability of MXD to particularly capture extremely warm temperatures, ( ii) methodological identification and relative definition of extremes, and ( iii) placement of those events in the millennium-long context of low-frequency climate change.

The influence of climate variables on dengue in Singapore.

PubMed

Pinto, Edna; Coelho, Micheline; Oliver, Leuda; Massad, Eduardo

2011-12-01

In this work we correlated dengue cases with climatic variables for the city of Singapore. This was done through a Poisson Regression Model (PRM) that considers dengue cases as the dependent variable and the climatic variables (rainfall, maximum and minimum temperature and relative humidity) as independent variables. We also used Principal Components Analysis (PCA) to choose the variables that influence in the increase of the number of dengue cases in Singapore, where PC₁ (Principal component 1) is represented by temperature and rainfall and PC₂ (Principal component 2) is represented by relative humidity. We calculated the probability of occurrence of new cases of dengue and the relative risk of occurrence of dengue cases influenced by climatic variable. The months from July to September showed the highest probabilities of the occurrence of new cases of the disease throughout the year. This was based on an analysis of time series of maximum and minimum temperature. An interesting result was that for every 2-10°C of variation of the maximum temperature, there was an average increase of 22.2-184.6% in the number of dengue cases. For the minimum temperature, we observed that for the same variation, there was an average increase of 26.1-230.3% in the number of the dengue cases from April to August. The precipitation and the relative humidity, after analysis of correlation, were discarded in the use of Poisson Regression Model because they did not present good correlation with the dengue cases. Additionally, the relative risk of the occurrence of the cases of the disease under the influence of the variation of temperature was from 1.2-2.8 for maximum temperature and increased from 1.3-3.3 for minimum temperature. Therefore, the variable temperature (maximum and minimum) was the best predictor for the increased number of dengue cases in Singapore.

Extreme Temperature Performance of Automotive-Grade Small Signal Bipolar Junction Transistors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Boomer, Kristen; Damron, Benny; Gray, Josh; Hammoud, Ahmad

2018-01-01

Electronics designed for space exploration missions must display efficient and reliable operation under extreme temperature conditions. For example, lunar outposts, Mars rovers and landers, James Webb Space Telescope, Europa orbiter, and deep space probes represent examples of missions where extreme temperatures and thermal cycling are encountered. Switching transistors, small signal as well as power level devices, are widely used in electronic controllers, data instrumentation, and power management and distribution systems. Little is known, however, about their performance in extreme temperature environments beyond their specified operating range; in particular under cryogenic conditions. This report summarizes preliminary results obtained on the evaluation of commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) automotive-grade NPN small signal transistors over a wide temperature range and thermal cycling. The investigations were carried out to establish a baseline on functionality of these transistors and to determine suitability for use outside their recommended temperature limits.

[Effects of future climate change on climatic suitability of rubber plantation in China].

PubMed

Liu, Shao-jun; Zhou, Guang-sheng; Fang, Shi-bo; Zhang, Jing-hong

2015-07-01

Global warming may seriously affect the climatic suitability distribution of rubber plantation in China. Five main climate factors affecting rubber planting were mean temperature of the coldest month, mean extremely minimum temperature, the number of monthly, mean temperature ≥18 °C, annual mean temperature and annual mean precipitation. Climatic suitability areas of rubber plantation in 1981-2010, 2041-2060, 2061-2080 were analyzed by the maximum entropy model based on the five main climate factors and the climate data of 1981-2010 and RCP4.5 scenario data. The results showed that under the background of the future climate change, the climatic suitability area of rubber plantation would have a trend of expansion to the north in 2041-2060, 2061-2080. The climatic suitability areas of rubber plantation in 2041-2060 and 2061-2080 increased more obviously than in 1981-2010. The suitable area and optimum area would increase, while the less suitable area would decrease. The climatic suitability might change in some areas, such as the total suitable area would decrease in Yunnan Province, and the suitability grade in both Jinghong and Mengna would change from optimum area to suitable area. However, the optimum area of rubber plantation would increase significantly in Hainan Island and Leizhou Peninsula of Guangdong Province, and a new less suitable area of rubber planting would appear in Taiwan Island due to the climate change.

High-Resolution Near Real-Time Drought Monitoring in South Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aadhar, S.; Mishra, V.

2017-12-01

Drought in South Asia affect food and water security and pose challenges for millions of people. For policy-making, planning and management of water resources at the sub-basin or administrative levels, high-resolution datasets of precipitation and air temperature are required in near-real time. Here we develop a high resolution (0.05 degree) bias-corrected precipitation and temperature data that can be used to monitor near real-time drought conditions over South Asia. Moreover, the dataset can be used to monitor climatic extremes (heat waves, cold waves, dry and wet anomalies) in South Asia. A distribution mapping method was applied to correct bias in precipitation and air temperature (maximum and minimum), which performed well compared to the other bias correction method based on linear scaling. Bias-corrected precipitation and temperature data were used to estimate Standardized precipitation index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) to assess the historical and current drought conditions in South Asia. We evaluated drought severity and extent against the satellite-based Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) anomalies and satellite-driven Drought Severity Index (DSI) at 0.05˚. We find that the bias-corrected high-resolution data can effectively capture observed drought conditions as shown by the satellite-based drought estimates. High resolution near real-time dataset can provide valuable information for decision-making at district and sub- basin levels.

Return levels of temperature extremes in southern Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zahid, Maida; Blender, Richard; Lucarini, Valerio; Caterina Bramati, Maria

2017-12-01

Southern Pakistan (Sindh) is one of the hottest regions in the world and is highly vulnerable to temperature extremes. In order to improve rural and urban planning, it is useful to gather information about the recurrence of temperature extremes. In this work, return levels of the daily maximum temperature Tmax are estimated, as well as the daily maximum wet-bulb temperature TWmax extremes. We adopt the peaks over threshold (POT) method, which has not yet been used for similar studies in this region. Two main datasets are analyzed: temperatures observed at nine meteorological stations in southern Pakistan from 1980 to 2013, and the ERA-Interim (ECMWF reanalysis) data for the nearest corresponding locations. The analysis provides the 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, and 100-year return levels (RLs) of temperature extremes. The 90 % quantile is found to be a suitable threshold for all stations. We find that the RLs of the observed Tmax are above 50 °C at northern stations and above 45 °C at the southern stations. The RLs of the observed TWmax exceed 35 °C in the region, which is considered as a limit of survivability. The RLs estimated from the ERA-Interim data are lower by 3 to 5 °C than the RLs assessed for the nine meteorological stations. A simple bias correction applied to ERA-Interim data improves the RLs remarkably, yet discrepancies are still present. The results have potential implications for the risk assessment of extreme temperatures in Sindh.

If We Can't Predict Solar Cycle 24, What About Solar Cycle 34?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pesnell. William Dean

2008-01-01

Predictions of solar activity in Solar Cycle 24 range from 50% larger than SC 23 to the onset of a Grand Minimum. Because low levels of solar activity are associated with global cooling in paleoclimate and isotopic records, anticipating these extremes is required in any longterm extrapolation of climate variability. Climate models often look forward 100 or more years, which would mean 10 solar cycles into the future. Predictions of solar activity are derived from a number of methods, most of which, such as climatology and physics-based models, will be familiar to atmospheric scientists. More than 50 predictions of the maximum amplitude of SC 24 published before solar minimum will be discussed. Descriptions of several methods that result in the extreme predictions and some anticipation of even longer term predictions will be presented.

Irrigation mitigates against heat extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thiery, Wim; Fischer, Erich; Visser, Auke; Hirsch, Annette L.; Davin, Edouard L.; Lawrence, Dave; Hauser, Mathias; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

2017-04-01

Irrigation is an essential practice for sustaining global food production and many regional economies. Emerging scientific evidence indicates that irrigation substantially affects mean climate conditions in different regions of the world. Yet how this practice influences climate extremes is currently unknown. Here we use gridded observations and ensemble simulations with the Community Earth System Model to assess the impacts of irrigation on climate extremes. While the influence of irrigation on annual mean temperatures is limited, we find a large impact on temperature extremes, with a particularly strong cooling during the hottest day of the year (-0.78 K averaged over irrigated land). The strong influence on hot extremes stems from the timing of irrigation and its influence on land-atmosphere coupling strength. Together these effects result in asymmetric temperature responses, with a more pronounced cooling during hot and/or dry periods. The influence of irrigation is even more pronounced when considering subgrid-scale model output, suggesting that local effects of land management are far more important than previously thought. Finally we find that present-day irrigation is partly masking GHG-induced warming of extreme temperatures, with particularly strong effects in South Asia. Our results overall underline that irrigation substantially reduces our exposure to hot temperature extremes and highlight the need to account for irrigation in future climate projections.

Long Term Decline in Eastern US Winter Temperature Extremes.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trenary, L. L.; DelSole, T. M.; Tippett, M. K.; Doty, B.

2016-12-01

States along the US eastern seaboard have experienced successively harsh winter conditions in recent years. This has prompted speculation that climate change is leading to more extreme winter conditions. In this study we quantify changes in the observed winter extremes over the period 1950-2015, by examining year-to-year differences in intensity, frequency and likelihood of daily cold temperature extremes in the north, mid, and south Atlantic states along the US east coast. Analyzing station data for these three regions, we find that while the north and mid-Atlantic regions experienced record-breaking cold temperatures in 2015, there is no long-term increase in the intensity of cold extremes anywhere along the eastern seaboard. Likewise, despite the record number of cold days in these two regions during 2014 and 2015, there is no systematic increase in the frequency of cold extremes. To determine whether the observed changes are natural or human-forced, we repeat our analysis using a suite of climate simulations, with and without external forcing. Generally, model simulations suggest that human-induced forcing does not significantly influence the range of daily winter temperature. Combining this result with the fact that the observed winter temperatures are becoming warmer and less variable, we conclude that the recent intensification of eastern US cold extremes is only temporary.

Characterization of Low Noise, Precision Voltage Reference REF5025-HT Under Extreme Temperatures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Patterson, Richard; Hammoud, Ahmad

2010-01-01

The performance of Texas Instruments precision voltage reference REF5025-HT was assessed under extreme temperatures. This low noise, 2.5 V output chip is suitable for use in high temperature down-hole drilling applications, but no data existed on its performance at cryogenic temperatures. The device was characterized in terms of output voltage and supply current at different input voltage levels as a function of temperature between +210 C and -190 C. Line and load regulation characteristics were also established at six load levels and at different temperatures. Restart capability at extreme temperatures and the effects of thermal cycling, covering the test temperature range, on its operation and stability were also investigated. Under no load condition, the voltage reference chip exhibited good stability in its output over the temperature range of -50 C to +200 C. Outside that temperature range, output voltage did change as temperature was changed. For example, at the extreme temperatures of +210 C and - 190 C, the output level dropped to 2.43 V and 2.32 V, respectively as compared to the nominal value of 2.5 V. At cryogenic test temperatures of -100 C and -150 C the output voltage dropped by about 20%. The quiescent supply current of the voltage reference varied slightly with temperature but remained close to its specified value. In terms of line regulation, the device exhibited excellent stability between -50 C and +150 C over the entire input voltage range and load levels. At the other test temperatures, however, while line regulation became poor at cryogenic temperatures of -100 C and below, it suffered slight degradation at the extreme high temperature but only at the high load level of 10 mA. The voltage reference also exhibited very good load regulation with temperature down to -100 C, but its output dropped sharply at +210 C only at the heavy load of 10 mA. The semiconductor chip was able restart at the extreme temperatures of -190 C and +210 C, and the limited thermal cycling did not influence its characteristics and had no impact on its packaging as no structural or physical damage was observed.

Extreme developmental temperatures result in morphological abnormalities in painted turtles (Chrysemys picta): a climate change perspective.

PubMed

Telemeco, Rory S; Warner, Daniel A; Reida, Molly K; Janzen, Fredric J

2013-06-01

Increases in extreme environmental events are predicted to be major results of ongoing global climate change and may impact the persistence of species. We examined the effects of heat and cold waves during embryonic development of painted turtles (Chrysemys picta) in natural nests on the occurrence of abnormal shell morphologies in hatchlings. We found that nests exposed to extreme hot temperatures for >60 h produced more hatchlings with abnormalities than nests exposed to extreme hot temperatures for shorter periods, regardless of whether or not nesting females displayed abnormal morphologies. We observed no effect of extreme cold nest temperatures on the occurrence of hatchlings with abnormalities. Moreover, the frequency of nesting females with abnormal shell morphologies was approximately 2-fold lower than that of their offspring, suggesting that such abnormalities are negatively correlated with survival and fitness. Female turtles could potentially buffer their offspring from extreme heat by altering aspects of nesting behavior, such as choosing shadier nesting sites. We addressed this hypothesis by examining the effects of shade cover on extreme nest temperatures and the occurrence of hatchling abnormalities. While shade cover was negatively correlated with the occurrence of extreme hot nest temperatures, it was not significantly correlated with abnormalities. Therefore, female choice of shade cover does not appear to be a viable target for selection to reduce hatchling abnormalities. Our results suggest that increases in the frequency and intensity of heat waves associated with climate change might perturb developmental programs and thereby reduce the fitness of entire cohorts of turtles. © 2012 Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd, ISZS and IOZ/CAS.

Evaluation of empirical relationships between extreme rainfall and daily maximum temperature in Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herath, Sujeewa Malwila; Sarukkalige, Ranjan; Nguyen, Van Thanh Van

2018-01-01

Understanding the relationships between extreme daily and sub-daily rainfall events and their governing factors is important in order to analyse the properties of extreme rainfall events in a changing climate. Atmospheric temperature is one of the dominant climate variables which has a strong relationship with extreme rainfall events. In this study, a temperature-rainfall binning technique is used to evaluate the dependency of extreme rainfall on daily maximum temperature. The Clausius-Clapeyron (C-C) relation was found to describe the relationship between daily maximum temperature and a range of rainfall durations from 6 min up to 24 h for seven Australian weather stations, the stations being located in Adelaide, Brisbane, Canberra, Darwin, Melbourne, Perth and Sydney. The analysis shows that the rainfall - temperature scaling varies with location, temperature and rainfall duration. The Darwin Airport station shows a negative scaling relationship, while the other six stations show a positive relationship. To identify the trend in scaling relationship over time the same analysis is conducted using data covering 10 year periods. Results indicate that the dependency of extreme rainfall on temperature also varies with the analysis period. Further, this dependency shows an increasing trend for more extreme short duration rainfall and a decreasing trend for average long duration rainfall events at most stations. Seasonal variations of the scale changing trends were analysed by categorizing the summer and autumn seasons in one group and the winter and spring seasons in another group. Most of 99th percentile of 6 min, 1 h and 24 h rain durations at Perth, Melbourne and Sydney stations show increasing trend for both groups while Adelaide and Darwin show decreasing trend. Furthermore, majority of scaling trend of 50th percentile are decreasing for both groups.

Flexible diaphragm-extreme temperature usage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lerma, Guillermo

1991-02-01

A diaphragm suitable for extreme temperature usage, such as encountered in critical aerospace applications, is fabricated by a unique method, and of a unique combination of materials. The materials include multilayered lay-ups of diaphragm materials sandwiched between layers of bleeder fabrics. After being formed in the desired shape on a mold, they are vacuum sealed and then cured under pressure, in a heated autoclave. A bond capable of withstanding extreme temperatures are produced.

Flexible diaphragm-extreme temperature usage

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lerma, Guillermo (Inventor)

1991-01-01

A diaphragm suitable for extreme temperature usage, such as encountered in critical aerospace applications, is fabricated by a unique method, and of a unique combination of materials. The materials include multilayered lay-ups of diaphragm materials sandwiched between layers of bleeder fabrics. After being formed in the desired shape on a mold, they are vacuum sealed and then cured under pressure, in a heated autoclave. A bond capable of withstanding extreme temperatures are produced.

Extreme grape harvest data of Austria, Switzerland and France from A.D. 1523 to 2007 compared to corresponding instrumental/reconstructed temperature data and various documentary sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maurer, C.; Hammerl, C.; Koch, E.; Hammerl, T.; Pokorny, E.

2011-11-01

The detection and quantification of extreme weather conditions in the past are important for correctly assessing the significance of today's extremes especially in the context of climate change. We specified extreme years by a synopsis of phenological data, temperature reconstructions and measurements and descriptive documentary sources starting in the 16th century. The spatial scale investigated is regional to interregional, covering Austria, Switzerland and north-eastern France. Thus, we defined a list of 36 extreme years (1536-2007), where two or more of several parameters (grape harvest data and/or mean temperatures) available at that time exceeded the two-sigma threshold with regard to a reference period of 105 years. In Western Europe, there were extreme spring to early summer temperatures and/or exceptional phenological observations on all three locations in 1542, 1718, 1811, 1822, 2003, 2006 and 2007. As only grape harvest data are on hand, our phenological dates can only indicate anomalous temperature conditions during spring and early summer, i.e. mean temperatures which significantly correlate to these phenological records. In addition to these data, we used independent documentary sources from the municipal archives of Retz, a town in Lower Austria, for affirming or amending these results.

Differential Effects of Temperature Extremes on Hospital Admission Rates for Respiratory Disease between Indigenous and Non-Indigenous Australians in the Northern Territory

PubMed Central

Green, Donna; Bambrick, Hilary; Tait, Peter; Goldie, James; Schultz, Rosalie; Webb, Leanne; Alexander, Lisa; Pitman, Andrew

2015-01-01

The health gap between Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australians may be exacerbated by climate change if temperature extremes have disproportionate adverse effects on Indigenous people. To explore this issue, we analysed the effect of temperature extremes on hospital admissions for respiratory diseases, stratified by age, Indigenous status and sex, for people living in two different climates zones in the Northern Territory during the period 1993–2011. We examined admissions for both acute and chronic respiratory diagnoses, controlling for day of the week and seasonality variables. Our analysis showed that: (1) overall, Indigenous hospital admission rates far exceeded non-Indigenous admission rates for acute and chronic diagnoses, and Top End climate zone admission rates exceeded Central Australia climate zone admission rates; (2) extreme cold and hot temperatures were associated with inconsistent changes in admission rates for acute respiratory disease in Indigenous and non-Indigenous children and older adults; and (3) no response to cold or hot temperature extremes was found for chronic respiratory diagnoses. These findings support our two hypotheses, that extreme hot and cold temperatures have a different effect on hospitalisations for respiratory disease between Indigenous and non-Indigenous people, and that these health risks vary between the different climate zones. We did not, however, find that there were differing responses to temperature extremes in the two populations, suggesting that any increased vulnerability to climate change in the Indigenous population of the Northern Territory arises from an increased underlying risk to respiratory disease and an already greater existing health burden. PMID:26633456

Extreme Temperature Exceedances Change more Rapidly Under Future Warming in Regions of non-Gaussian Short Temperature Distribution Tails

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loikith, P. C.; Neelin, J. D.; Meyerson, J.

2017-12-01

Regions of shorter-than-Gaussian warm and cold side temperature distribution tails are shown to occur in spatially coherent patterns in the current climate. Under such conditions, warming may be manifested in more complex ways than if the underlying distribution were close to Gaussian. For example, under a uniform warm shift, the simplest prototype for future warming, a location with a short warm side tail would experience a greater increase in extreme warm exceedances compared to if the distribution were Gaussian. Similarly, for a location with a short cold side tail, a uniform warm shift would result in a rapid decrease in extreme cold exceedances. Both scenarios carry major societal and environmental implications including but not limited to negative impacts on human and ecosystem health, agriculture, and the economy. It is therefore important for climate models to be able to realistically reproduce short tails in simulations of historical climate in order to boost confidence in projections of future temperature extremes. Overall, climate models contributing to the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project capture many of the principal observed regions of short tails. This suggests the underlying dynamics and physics occur on scales resolved by the models, and helps build confidence in model projections of extremes. Furthermore, most GCMs show more rapid changes in exceedances of extreme temperature thresholds in regions of short tails. Results therefore suggest that the shape of the tails of the underlying temperature distribution is an indicator of how rapidly a location will experience changes to extreme temperature occurrence under future warming.

Impact of climate change on European weather extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duchez, Aurelie; Forryan, Alex; Hirschi, Joel; Sinha, Bablu; New, Adrian; Freychet, Nicolas; Scaife, Adam; Graham, Tim

2015-04-01

An emerging science consensus is that global climate change will result in more extreme weather events with concomitant increasing financial losses. Key questions that arise are: Can an upward trend in natural extreme events be recognised and predicted at the European scale? What are the key drivers within the climate system that are changing and making extreme weather events more frequent, more intense, or both? Using state-of-the-art coupled climate simulations from the UK Met Office (HadGEM3-GC2, historical and future scenario runs) as well as reanalysis data, we highlight the potential of the currently most advanced forecasting systems to progress understanding of the causative drivers of European weather extremes, and assess future frequency and intensity of extreme weather under various climate change scenarios. We characterize European extremes in these simulations using a subset of the 27 core indices for temperature and precipitation from The Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (Tank et al., 2009). We focus on temperature and precipitation extremes (e.g. extremes in daily and monthly precipitation and temperatures) and relate them to the atmospheric modes of variability over Europe in order to establish the large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns that are conducive to the occurrence of extreme precipitation and temperature events. Klein Tank, Albert M.G., and Francis W. Zwiers. Guidelines on Analysis of Extremes in a Changing Climate in Support of Informed Decisions for Adaptation. WMO-TD No. 1500. Climate Data and Monitoring. World Meteorological Organization, 2009.

Spatial and temporal variability in minimum temperature trends in the western U.S. sagebrush steppe

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Climate is a major driver of ecosystem dynamics. In recent years there has been considerable interest in future climate change and potential impacts on ecosystems and management options. In this paper, we analyzed minimum monthly temperature (T min) for ten rural locations in the western sagebrush...

Climate projections and extremes in dynamically downscaled CMIP5 model outputs over the Bengal delta: a quartile based bias-correction approach with new gridded data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hasan, M. Alfi; Islam, A. K. M. Saiful; Akanda, Ali Shafqat

2017-11-01

In the era of global warning, the insight of future climate and their changing extremes is critical for climate-vulnerable regions of the world. In this study, we have conducted a robust assessment of Regional Climate Model (RCM) results in a monsoon-dominated region within the new Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and the latest Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios. We have applied an advanced bias correction approach to five RCM simulations in order to project future climate and associated extremes over Bangladesh, a critically climate-vulnerable country with a complex monsoon system. We have also generated a new gridded product that performed better in capturing observed climatic extremes than existing products. The bias-correction approach provided a notable improvement in capturing the precipitation extremes as well as mean climate. The majority of projected multi-model RCMs indicate an increase of rainfall, where one model shows contrary results during the 2080s (2071-2100) era. The multi-model mean shows that nighttime temperatures will increase much faster than daytime temperatures and the average annual temperatures are projected to be as hot as present-day summer temperatures. The expected increase of precipitation and temperature over the hilly areas are higher compared to other parts of the country. Overall, the projected extremities of future rainfall are more variable than temperature. According to the majority of the models, the number of the heavy rainy days will increase in future years. The severity of summer-day temperatures will be alarming, especially over hilly regions, where winters are relatively warm. The projected rise of both precipitation and temperature extremes over the intense rainfall-prone northeastern region of the country creates a possibility of devastating flash floods with harmful impacts on agriculture. Moreover, the effect of bias-correction, as presented in probable changes of both bias-corrected and uncorrected extremes, can be considered in future policy making.

Shifts in historical streamflow extremes in the Colorado River Basin

DOE PAGES

Solander, Kurt C.; Bennett, Katrina Eleanor; Middleton, Richard Stephen

2017-07-10

The global phenomenon of climate change-induced shifts in precipitation leading to "wet regions getting wetter" and "dry regions getting drier" has been widely studied. However, the propagation of these changes in atmospheric moisture within stream channels is not a direct relationship due to differences in the timing of how changing precipitation patterns interact with various land surfaces. Streamflow is of particular interest in the Colorado River Basin (CRB) due to the region’s rapidly growing population, projected temperature increases that are expected to be higher than elsewhere in the contiguous United States, and subsequent climate-driven disturbances including drought, vegetation mortality, andmore » wildfire, which makes the region more vulnerable to changes in hydrologic extremes. Here in this study, we determine how streamflow extremes have shifted in the CRB using two statistical methods—the Mann-Kendall trend detection analysis and Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) theorem. We evaluate these changes in the context of key flow metrics that include high and low flow percentiles, maximum and minimum 7-day flows, and the center timing of streamflow using historical gage records representative of natural flows. Monthly results indicate declines of up to 41% for high and low flows during the June to July peak runoff season, while increases of up to 24% were observed earlier from March to April. Finally, our results highlight a key threshold elevation and latitude of 2300 m and 39° North, respectively, where there is a distinct shift in the trend. The spatiotemporal patterns observed are indicative of changing snowmelt patterns as a primary cause of the shifts. Identification of how this change varies spatially has consequences for improved land management strategies, as specific regions most vulnerable to threats can be prioritized for mitigation or adaptation as the climate warms.« less

Shifts in historical streamflow extremes in the Colorado River Basin

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Solander, Kurt C.; Bennett, Katrina Eleanor; Middleton, Richard Stephen

The global phenomenon of climate change-induced shifts in precipitation leading to "wet regions getting wetter" and "dry regions getting drier" has been widely studied. However, the propagation of these changes in atmospheric moisture within stream channels is not a direct relationship due to differences in the timing of how changing precipitation patterns interact with various land surfaces. Streamflow is of particular interest in the Colorado River Basin (CRB) due to the region’s rapidly growing population, projected temperature increases that are expected to be higher than elsewhere in the contiguous United States, and subsequent climate-driven disturbances including drought, vegetation mortality, andmore » wildfire, which makes the region more vulnerable to changes in hydrologic extremes. Here in this study, we determine how streamflow extremes have shifted in the CRB using two statistical methods—the Mann-Kendall trend detection analysis and Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) theorem. We evaluate these changes in the context of key flow metrics that include high and low flow percentiles, maximum and minimum 7-day flows, and the center timing of streamflow using historical gage records representative of natural flows. Monthly results indicate declines of up to 41% for high and low flows during the June to July peak runoff season, while increases of up to 24% were observed earlier from March to April. Finally, our results highlight a key threshold elevation and latitude of 2300 m and 39° North, respectively, where there is a distinct shift in the trend. The spatiotemporal patterns observed are indicative of changing snowmelt patterns as a primary cause of the shifts. Identification of how this change varies spatially has consequences for improved land management strategies, as specific regions most vulnerable to threats can be prioritized for mitigation or adaptation as the climate warms.« less

Variable Trends in High Peak Flow Generation Across the Swedish Sub-Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matti, B.; Dahlke, H. E.; Lyon, S. W.

2015-12-01

There is growing concern about increased frequency and severity of floods and droughts globally in recent years. Improving knowledge on the complexity of hydrological systems and their interactions with climate is essential to be able to determine drivers of these extreme events and to predict changes in these drivers under altered climate conditions. This is particularly true in cold regions such as the Swedish Sub-Arctic where independent shifts in both precipitation and temperature can have significant influence on extremes. This study explores changes in the magnitude and timing of the annual maximum daily flows in 18 Swedish sub-arctic catchments. The Mann-Kendall trend test was used to estimate changes in selected hydrological signatures. Further, a flood frequency analysis was conducted by fitting a Gumbel (Extreme Value type I) distribution whereby selected flood percentiles were tested for stationarity using a generalized least squares regression approach. Our results showed that hydrological systems in cold climates have complex, heterogeneous interactions with climate. Shifts from a snowmelt-dominated to a rainfall-dominated flow regime were evident with all significant trends pointing towards (1) lower flood magnitudes in the spring flood; (2) earlier flood occurrence; (3) earlier snowmelt onset; and (4) decreasing mean summer flows. Decreasing trends in flood magnitude and mean summer flows suggest permafrost thawing and are in agreement with the increasing trends in annual minimum flows. Trends in the selected flood percentiles showed an increase in extreme events over the entire period of record, while trends were variable under shorter periods. A thorough uncertainty analysis emphasized that the applied trend test is highly sensitive to the period of record considered. As such, no clear overall regional pattern could be determined suggesting that how catchments are responding to changes in climatic drivers is strongly influenced by their physical characteristics.

The exceptional recent warming signal in a long-term central-German observation site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoy, Andreas; Schönwiese, Christian-Dietrich

2017-04-01

The long-term temperature measurements of Frankfurt/Main represent a scientifically highly valuable source for investigating climatic changes in central Germany and beyond. Annual data are available since 1758 and daily observations since 1870. The 258 year long annual time series is homogenised and recalculated to the airport location outside of Frankfurt/Main city. In a first step, impacts of site changes and urbanisation effects are discussed comparing the five different inner-city monitoring points and the airport location after WWII. We show that site changes affect both extreme and average temperatures, and that they may be considerable even for small relocations. Urbanisation effects are visible all year long and stronger for minimum than maximum temperatures. Annual temperature observations show slightly decreasing temperatures until the 1840s. This development is then replaced by an increasing trend overlain by decadal-scale and yearly fluctuations. Nevertheless, until the 1980s shifting 30-year-means only fluctuate between 8.54 °C in 1829-1858 and 9.58 °C in 1948-1977. However, recent years more than doubled the 1 K spread between the coldest and warmest period, with an average of 10.82 °C in 1986-2015. In addition, this 30-year period was warmer than any single year before 1990. Record-cold calendar days almost disappeared since 1988, while record-warm calendar days appeared about three times more often than statistically expectable. Strong warming was observed year-round, only September and October showed more moderate trends.

Anthropogenic and Natural Changes in the Climate of China: Can we Separate Them ?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Z.; Yang, X.

2015-12-01

Climate changes result from all forces, natural and anthropogenic. Among various anthropogenic factors, greenhouse gases, aerosol and urbanization are arguably the most significant ones whose effects are often hard to differentiate, as they often intertwined together. It is, however, extremely, important to separate their effects for the sake of both science (e.g. accounting for them in GCMs) and for making sound policy in light of their diverse implications. Few places in the world are more affected by all three factors than China where decades of fast development have drastically altered atmospheric and terrestrial environment with huge greenhouse emissions. Such changes have left deep footprints in the climate system. While the anthropogenic impact is substantial, it is a nontrivial task to detangle them. In this talk, I will present a pilot study showing how changes in temperature and precipitation are linked with these factors with a particular focus on temperature and precipitation. From their long-term observations, we are able to see the contributions of increasing air pollution to mean, maximum and minimum temperatures, and rainfall of varying intensity from drizzle to thunderstorms. By means of analysis of long-term meteorological records and model simulations, we have tried to differentiate natural and anthropogenic changes in the climate of China.

Assessing Climate Variability Effects on Dengue Incidence in San Juan, Puerto Rico

PubMed Central

Méndez-Lázaro, Pablo; Muller-Karger, Frank E.; Otis, Daniel; McCarthy, Matthew J.; Peña-Orellana, Marisol

2014-01-01

We test the hypothesis that climate and environmental conditions are becoming favorable for dengue transmission in San Juan, Puerto Rico. Sea Level Pressure (SLP), Mean Sea Level (MSL), Wind, Sea Surface Temperature (SST), Air Surface Temperature (AST), Rainfall, and confirmed dengue cases were analyzed. We evaluated the dengue incidence and environmental data with Principal Component Analysis, Pearson correlation coefficient, Mann-Kendall trend test and logistic regressions. Results indicated that dry days are increasing and wet days are decreasing. MSL is increasing, posing higher risk of dengue as the perimeter of the San Juan Bay estuary expands and shorelines move inland. Warming is evident with both SST and AST. Maximum and minimum air surface temperature extremes have increased. Between 1992 and 2011, dengue transmission increased by a factor of 3.4 (95% CI: 1.9–6.1) for each 1 °C increase in SST. For the period 2007–2011 alone, dengue incidence reached a factor of 5.2 (95% CI: 1.9–13.9) for each 1 °C increase in SST. Teenagers are consistently the age group that suffers the most infections in San Juan. Results help understand possible impacts of different climate change scenarios in planning for social adaptation and public health interventions. PMID:25216253

Ecophysiological characterization of Aspergillus carbonarius, Aspergillus tubingensis and Aspergillus niger isolated from grapes in Spanish vineyards.

PubMed

García-Cela, E; Crespo-Sempere, A; Ramos, A J; Sanchis, V; Marin, S

2014-03-03

The aim of this study was to evaluate the diversity of black aspergilli isolated from berries from different agroclimatic regions of Spain. Growth characterization (in terms of temperature and water activity requirements) of Aspergillus carbonarius, Aspergillus tubingensis and Aspergillus niger was carried out on synthetic grape medium. A. tubingensis and A. niger showed higher maximum temperatures for growth (>45 °C versus 40-42 °C), and lower minimum aw requirements (0.83 aw versus 0.87 aw) than A. carbonarius. No differences in growth boundaries due to their geographical origin were found within A. niger aggregate isolates. Conversely, A. carbonarius isolates from the hotter and drier region grew and produced OTA at lower aw than other isolates. However, little genetic diversity in A. carbonarius was observed for the microsatellites tested and the same sequence of β-tubulin gene was observed; therefore intraspecific variability did not correlate with the geographical origin of the isolates or with their ability to produce OTA. Climatic change prediction points to drier and hotter climatic scenarios where A. tubingensis and A. niger could be even more prevalent over A. carbonarius, since they are better adapted to extreme high temperature and drier conditions. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Iterative management of heat early warning systems in a changing climate.

PubMed

Hess, Jeremy J; Ebi, Kristie L

2016-10-01

Extreme heat is a leading weather-related cause of morbidity and mortality, with heat exposure becoming more widespread, frequent, and intense as climates change. The use of heat early warning and response systems (HEWSs) that integrate weather forecasts with risk assessment, communication, and reduction activities is increasingly widespread. HEWSs are frequently touted as an adaptation to climate change, but little attention has been paid to the question of how best to ensure effectiveness of HEWSs as climates change further. In this paper, we discuss findings showing that HEWSs satisfy the tenets of an intervention that facilitates adaptation, but climate change poses challenges infrequently addressed in heat action plans, particularly changes in the onset, duration, and intensity of dangerously warm temperatures, and changes over time in the relationships between temperature and health outcomes. Iterative management should be central to a HEWS, and iteration cycles should be of 5 years or less. Climate change adaptation and implementation science research frameworks can be used to identify HEWS modifications to improve their effectiveness as temperature continues to rise, incorporating scientific insights and new understanding of effective interventions. We conclude that, at a minimum, iterative management activities should involve planned reassessment at least every 5 years of hazard distribution, population-level vulnerability, and HEWS effectiveness. © 2016 New York Academy of Sciences.

Monitoring of Freezing Dynamics in Trees: A Simple Phase Shift Causes Complexity1[OPEN

PubMed Central

Charra-Vaskou, Katline

2017-01-01

During winter, trees have to cope with harsh conditions, including extreme freeze-thaw stress. This study focused on ice nucleation and propagation, related water shifts and xylem cavitation, as well as cell damage and was based on in situ monitoring of xylem (thermocouples) and surface temperatures (infrared imaging), ultrasonic emissions, and dendrometer analysis. Field experiments during late winter on Picea abies growing at the alpine timberline revealed three distinct freezing patterns: (1) from the top of the tree toward the base, (2) from thin branches toward the main stem’s top and base, and (3) from the base toward the top. Infrared imaging showed freezing within branches from their base toward distal parts. Such complex freezing causes dynamic and heterogenous patterns in water potential and probably in cavitation. This study highlights the interaction between environmental conditions upon freezing and thawing and demonstrates the enormous complexity of freezing processes in trees. Diameter shrinkage, which indicated water fluxes within the stem, and acoustic emission analysis, which indicated cavitation events near the ice front upon freezing, were both related to minimum temperature and, upon thawing, related to vapor pressure deficit and soil temperature. These complex patterns, emphasizing the common mechanisms between frost and drought stress, shed new light on winter tree physiology. PMID:28242655

Extreme temperatures and paediatric emergency department admissions.

PubMed

Xu, Zhiwei; Hu, Wenbiao; Su, Hong; Turner, Lyle R; Ye, Xiaofang; Wang, Jiajia; Tong, Shilu

2014-04-01

Children are particularly vulnerable to the effects of extreme temperatures. To examine the relationship between extreme temperatures and paediatric emergency department admissions (EDAs) in Brisbane, Australia, during 2003-2009. A quasi-Poisson generalised linear model combined with a distributed lag non-linear model was used to examine the relationships between extreme temperatures and age-, gender- and cause-specific paediatric EDAs, while controlling for air pollution, relative humidity, day of the week, influenza epidemics, public holiday, season and long-term trends. The model residuals were checked to identify whether there was an added effect due to heat waves or cold spells. There were 131 249 EDAs among children during the study period. Both high (RR=1.27; 95% CI 1.12 to 1.44) and low (RR=1.81; 95% CI 1.66 to 1.97) temperatures were significantly associated with an increase in paediatric EDAs in Brisbane. Male children were more vulnerable to temperature effects. Children aged 0-4 years were more vulnerable to heat effects and children aged 10-14 years were more sensitive to both hot and cold effects. High temperatures had a significant impact on several paediatric diseases, including intestinal infectious diseases, respiratory diseases, endocrine, nutritional and metabolic diseases, nervous system diseases and chronic lower respiratory diseases. Low temperatures were significantly associated with intestinal infectious diseases, respiratory diseases and endocrine, nutritional and metabolic diseases. An added effect of heat waves on childhood chronic lower respiratory diseases was seen, but no added effect of cold spells was found. As climate change continues, children are at particular risk of a variety of diseases which might be triggered by extremely high temperatures. This study suggests that preventing the effects of extreme temperature on children with respiratory diseases might reduce the number of EDAs.

Relation Between Inflammables and Ignition Sources in Aircraft Environments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Scull, Wilfred E

1950-01-01

A literature survey was conducted to determine the relation between aircraft ignition sources and inflammables. Available literature applicable to the problem of aircraft fire hazards is analyzed and, discussed herein. Data pertaining to the effect of many variables on ignition temperatures, minimum ignition pressures, and minimum spark-ignition energies of inflammables, quenching distances of electrode configurations, and size of openings incapable of flame propagation are presented and discussed. The ignition temperatures and the limits of inflammability of gasoline in air in different test environments, and the minimum ignition pressure and the minimum size of openings for flame propagation of gasoline - air mixtures are included. Inerting of gasoline - air mixtures is discussed.

Factors affecting the thermal environment of Agassiz’s Desert Tortoise (Gopherus agassizii) cover sites in the Central Mojave Desert during periods of temperature extremes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mack, Jeremy S.; Berry, Kristin H.; Miller, David; Carlson, Andrea S.

2015-01-01

Agassiz's Desert Tortoises (Gopherus agassizii) spend >95% of their lives underground in cover sites that serve as thermal buffers from temperatures, which can fluctuate >40°C on a daily and seasonal basis. We monitored temperatures at 30 active tortoise cover sites within the Soda Mountains, San Bernardino County, California, from February 2004 to September 2006. Cover sites varied in type and structural characteristics, including opening height and width, soil cover depth over the opening, aspect, tunnel length, and surficial geology. We focused our analyses on periods of extreme temperature: in summer, between July 1 and September 1, and winter, between November 1 and February 15. With the use of multivariate regression tree analyses, we found cover-site temperatures were influenced largely by tunnel length and subsequently opening width and soil cover. Linear regression models further showed that increasing tunnel length increased temperature stability and dampened seasonal temperature extremes. Climate change models predict increased warming for southwestern North America. Cover sites that buffer temperature extremes and fluctuations will become increasingly important for survival of tortoises. In planning future translocation projects and conservation efforts, decision makers should consider habitats with terrain and underlying substrate that sustain cover sites with long tunnels and expanded openings for tortoises living under temperature extremes similar to those described here or as projected in the future.

Extreme temperature trends in major cropping systems and their relation to agricultural land use change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mueller, N. D.; Butler, E. E.; McKinnon, K. A.; Rhines, A. N.; Tingley, M.; Siebert, S.; Holbrook, N. M.; Huybers, P. J.

2015-12-01

High temperature extremes during the growing season can reduce agricultural production. At the same time, agricultural practices can modify temperatures by altering the surface energy budget. Here we investigate growing season climate trends in major cropping systems and their relationship with agricultural land use change. In the US Midwest, 100-year trends exhibit a transition towards more favorable conditions, with cooler summer temperature extremes and increased precipitation. Statistically significant correspondence is found between the cooling pattern and trends in cropland intensification, as well as with trends towards greater irrigated land over a small subset of the domain. Land conversion to cropland, often considered an important influence on historical temperatures, is not significantly associated with cooling. We suggest that cooling is primarily associated with agricultural intensification increasing the potential for evapotranspiration, consistent with our finding that cooling trends are greatest for the highest temperature percentiles, and that increased evapotranspiration generally leads to greater precipitation. Temperatures over rainfed croplands show no cooling trend during drought conditions, consistent with evapotranspiration requiring adequate soil moisture, and implying that modern drought events feature greater warming as baseline cooler temperatures revert to historically high extremes. Preliminary results indicate these relationships between temperature extremes, irrigation, and intensification are also observed in other major summer cropping systems, including northeast China, Argentina, and the Canadian Prairies.

Large-scale drivers of local precipitation extremes in convection-permitting climate simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chan, Steven C.; Kendon, Elizabeth J.; Roberts, Nigel M.; Fowler, Hayley J.; Blenkinsop, Stephen

2016-04-01

The Met Office 1.5-km UKV convective-permitting models (CPM) is used to downscale present-climate and RCP8.5 60-km HadGEM3 GCM simulations. Extreme UK hourly precipitation intensities increase with local near-surface temperatures and humidity; for temperature, the simulated increase rate for the present-climate simulation is about 6.5% K**-1, which is consistent with observations and theoretical expectations. While extreme intensities are higher in the RCP8.5 simulation as higher temperatures are sampled, there is a decline at the highest temperatures due to circulation and relative humidity changes. Extending the analysis to the broader synoptic scale, it is found that circulation patterns, as diagnosed by MSLP or circulation type, play an increased role in the probability of extreme precipitation in the RCP8.5 simulation. Nevertheless for both CPM simulations, vertical instability is the principal driver for extreme precipitation.

Final Technical Report for DE-SC0005467

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Broccoli, Anthony J.

2014-09-14

The objective of this project is to gain a comprehensive understanding of the key atmospheric mechanisms and physical processes associated with temperature extremes in order to better interpret and constrain uncertainty in climate model simulations of future extreme temperatures. To achieve this objective, we first used climate observations and a reanalysis product to identify the key atmospheric circulation patterns associated with extreme temperature days over North America during the late twentieth century. We found that temperature extremes were associated with distinctive signatures in near-surface and mid-tropospheric circulation. The orientations and spatial scales of these circulation anomalies vary with latitude, season,more » and proximity to important geographic features such as mountains and coastlines. We next examined the associations between daily and monthly temperature extremes and large-scale, recurrent modes of climate variability, including the Pacific-North American (PNA) pattern, the northern annular mode (NAM), and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The strength of the associations are strongest with the PNA and NAM and weaker for ENSO, and also depend upon season, time scale, and location. The associations are stronger in winter than summer, stronger for monthly than daily extremes, and stronger in the vicinity of the centers of action of the PNA and NAM patterns. In the final stage of this project, we compared climate model simulations of the circulation patterns associated with extreme temperature days over North America with those obtained from observations. Using a variety of metrics and self-organizing maps, we found the multi-model ensemble and the majority of individual models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) generally capture the observed patterns well, including their strength and as well as variations with latitude and season. The results from this project indicate that current models are capable of simulating the large-scale meteorological patterns associated with daily temperature extremes and they suggest that such models can be used to evaluate the extent to which changes in atmospheric circulation will influence future changes in temperature extremes.« less

Seasonal Metabolic Acclimatization Varies in Direction and Magnitude among Populations of an Afrotropical Passerine Bird.

PubMed

Noakes, Matthew J; Wolf, Blair O; McKechnie, Andrew E

Avian metabolic responses demonstrate considerable diversity under fluctuating environmental conditions, a well-studied example being the seasonal upregulation of basal metabolic rate (BMR) and summit metabolism (M sum ) in temperate species experiencing harsh winters. Fewer studies have examined seasonal metabolic acclimatization in subtropical or tropical species. We investigated seasonal metabolic variation in an Afrotropical ploceid passerine, the white-browed sparrow-weaver (Plocepasser mahali; ∼47 g), at three sites along a climatic gradient of approximately 7°C in winter minimum air temperature (T a ). We measured M sum (n ≥ 10 per site per season) in a helox atmosphere, BMR of the same birds at thermoneutrality (T a ≈ 30°C), and resting metabolic rates at 5°C ≤ T a ≤ 20°C. Patterns of seasonal adjustments in BMR varied among populations in a manner not solely related to variation in seasonal T a extremes, ranging from BMR ∼52% higher in winter than in summer to no seasonal difference. Greater cold tolerance was found in a population at a colder desert site, manifested as higher M sum (∼25% higher) and lower helox temperature at cold limit values compared with a milder, mesic site. Our results lend support to the idea that greater variance in the pattern of seasonal metabolic responses occurs in subtropical and tropical species compared with their temperate-zone counterparts and that factors other than T a extremes (e.g., food availability) may be important in determining the magnitude and direction of seasonal metabolic adjustments in subtropical birds.

Neutral and charged gallium clusters: structures, physical properties and implications for the melting features

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Núñez, Sara; López, José M.; Aguado, Andrés

2012-09-01

We report the putative Global Minimum (GM) structures and electronic properties of GaN+, GaN and GaN- clusters with N = 13-37 atoms, obtained from first-principles density functional theory structural optimizations. The calculations include spin polarization and employ an exchange-correlation functional which accounts for van der Waals dispersion interactions (vdW-DFT). We find a wide diversity of structural motifs within the located GM, including decahedral, polyicosahedral, polytetrahedral and layered structures. The GM structures are also extremely sensitive to the number of electrons in the cluster, so that the structures of neutral and charged clusters differ for most sizes. The main magic numbers (clusters with an enhanced stability) are identified and interpreted in terms of electronic and geometric shell closings. The theoretical results are consistent with experimental abundance mass spectra of GaN+ and with photoelectron spectra of GaN-. The size dependence of the latent heats of melting, the shape of the heat capacity peaks, and the temperature dependence of the collision cross-sections, all measured for GaN+ clusters, are properly interpreted in terms of the calculated cohesive energies, spectra of configurational excitations, and cluster shapes, respectively. The transition from ``non-melter'' to ``magic-melter'' behaviour, experimentally observed between Ga30+ and Ga31+, is traced back to a strong geometry change. Finally, the higher-than-bulk melting temperatures of gallium clusters are correlated with a more typically metallic behaviour of the clusters as compared to the bulk, contrary to previous theoretical claims.We report the putative Global Minimum (GM) structures and electronic properties of GaN+, GaN and GaN- clusters with N = 13-37 atoms, obtained from first-principles density functional theory structural optimizations. The calculations include spin polarization and employ an exchange-correlation functional which accounts for van der Waals dispersion interactions (vdW-DFT). We find a wide diversity of structural motifs within the located GM, including decahedral, polyicosahedral, polytetrahedral and layered structures. The GM structures are also extremely sensitive to the number of electrons in the cluster, so that the structures of neutral and charged clusters differ for most sizes. The main magic numbers (clusters with an enhanced stability) are identified and interpreted in terms of electronic and geometric shell closings. The theoretical results are consistent with experimental abundance mass spectra of GaN+ and with photoelectron spectra of GaN-. The size dependence of the latent heats of melting, the shape of the heat capacity peaks, and the temperature dependence of the collision cross-sections, all measured for GaN+ clusters, are properly interpreted in terms of the calculated cohesive energies, spectra of configurational excitations, and cluster shapes, respectively. The transition from ``non-melter'' to ``magic-melter'' behaviour, experimentally observed between Ga30+ and Ga31+, is traced back to a strong geometry change. Finally, the higher-than-bulk melting temperatures of gallium clusters are correlated with a more typically metallic behaviour of the clusters as compared to the bulk, contrary to previous theoretical claims. Electronic supplementary information (ESI) available: Atomic coordinates (in xyz format and Å units) and point group symmetries for the global minimum structures reported in this paper. See DOI: 10.1039/c2nr31222k

Turbulence Generation Using Localized Sources of Energy: Direct Numerical Simulations and the Effects of Thermal Non-Equilibrium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maqui, Agustin Francisco

Turbulence in high-speed flows is an important problem in aerospace applications, yet extremely difficult from a theoretical, computational and experimental perspective. A main reason for the lack of complete understanding is the difficulty of generating turbulence in the lab at a range of speeds which can also include hypersonic effects such as thermal non-equilibrium. This work studies the feasibility of a new approach to generate turbulence based on laser-induced photo-excitation/dissociation of seeded molecules. A large database of incompressible and compressible direct numerical simulations (DNS) has been generated to systematically study the development and evolution of the flow towards realistic turbulence. Governing parameters and the conditions necessary for the establishment of turbulence, as well as the length and time scales associated with such process, are identified. For both the compressible and incompressible experiments a minimum Reynolds number is found to be needed for the flow to evolve towards fully developed turbulence. Additionally, for incompressible cases a minimum time scale is required, while for compressible cases a minimum distance from the grid and limit on the maximum temperature introduced are required. Through an extensive analysis of single and two point statistics, as well as spectral dynamics, the primary mechanisms leading to turbulence are shown. As commonly done in compressible turbulence, dilatational and solenoidal components are separated to understand the effect of acoustics on the development of turbulence. Finally, a large database of forced isotropic turbulence has been generated to study the effect of internal degrees of freedom on the evolution of turbulence.

Cold-related mortality vs heat-related mortality in a changing climate: A case study in Vilnius (Lithuania).

PubMed

Martinez, Gerardo Sanchez; Diaz, Julio; Hooyberghs, Hans; Lauwaet, Dirk; De Ridder, Koen; Linares, Cristina; Carmona, Rocio; Ortiz, Cristina; Kendrovski, Vladimir; Adamonyte, Dovile

2018-06-21

Direct health effects of extreme temperatures are a significant environmental health problem in Lithuania, and could worsen further under climate change. This paper attempts to describe the change in environmental temperature conditions that the urban population of Vilnius could experience under climate change, and the effects such change could have on excess heat-related and cold-related mortality in two future periods within the 21st century. We modelled the urban climate of Vilnius for the summer and winter seasons during a sample period (2009-2015) and projected summertime and wintertime daily temperatures for two prospective periods, one in the near (2030-2045) and one in the far future (2085-2100), under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5. We then analysed the historical relationship between temperature and mortality for the period 2009-2015, and estimated the projected mortality in the near future and far future periods under a changing climate and population, assuming alternatively no acclimatisation and acclimatisation to heat and cold based on a constant-percentile threshold temperature. During the sample period 2009-2015 in summertime we observed an increase in daily mortality from a maximum daily temperature of 30 °C (the 96th percentile of the series), with an average of around 7 deaths per year. Under a no acclimatisation scenario, annual average heat-related mortality would rise to 24 deaths/year (95% CI: 8.4-38.4) in the near future and to 46 deaths/year (95% CI: 16.4-74.4) in the far future. Under a heat acclimatisation scenario, mortality would not increase significantly in the near or in the far future. Regarding wintertime cold-related mortality in the sample period 2009-2015, we observed increased mortality on days on which the minimum daily temperature fell below - 12 °C (the 7th percentile of the series), with an average of around 10 deaths a year. Keeping the threshold temperature constant, annual average cold-related mortality would decrease markedly in the near future, to 5 deaths/year (95% CI: 0.8-7.9) and even more in the far future, down to 0.44 deaths/year (95% C: 0.1-0.8). Assuming a "middle ground" between the acclimatisation and non-acclimatisation scenarios, the decrease in cold-related mortality will not compensate the increase in heat-related mortality. Thermal extremes, both heat and cold, constitute a serious public health threat in Vilnius, and in a changing climate the decrease in mortality attributable to cold will not compensate for the increase in mortality attributable to heat. Study results reinforce the notion that public health prevention against thermal extremes should be designed as a dynamic, adaptive process from the inception. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The impact of extreme weather conditions on the life of settlers in the Central Russia in X - XVI centuries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graves, Irina; Nizovtsev, Viacheslav; Erman, Natalia

2017-04-01

A special place in the reconstruction of climate dynamics takes an analysis of extraordinary meteorological phenomena. These extreme weather events in the first place impact the functioning of, the rhythm and dynamics of the landscapes and determine not only the features of economy, but also certain aspects of historical development. In the analysis of primary chronicles and published data, along with the direct climatic characteristics (hot, warm, cold, wet, dry, etc.) a lot of attention was paid to abnormal (extreme) natural phenomena and indirect indications of climate variability (floods, crop failures, hunger years, epidemics, etc.). As a result, tables were compiled reflecting climatic basic characteristics and extremes for each year since 900 BC. X-XI centuries was a period of minor climatic optimum - the climate was warmer and drier than the modern one. In addition to higher temperatures (up to 1-3C above than mordern), during this period there were no severe winters. A small amount of summer rainfall has led to a reduction in the number of small water reservoirs and flooding rivers. This is evidenced by Slavic settlements on floodplains of a number of rivers in the Moscow region. It is in this favorable climatic time the way "from the Vikings to the Greeks" was open. Catastrophic natural events had a minimum repeatability. For example, during the X century the Russian chronicles mentioned 41 extreme event, but for the XIII century - 102. Most of the villages and towns were located on the low floodplain terraces of rivers. The main farmland was concentrated there as well. In the "period of contrasts" (XIII - XIV centuries) there was an increase of intra-seasonal climate variability, humidity and widespread reduction in summer temperatures by 1-2C. The number of extreme weather events increased: cold prolonged winters, long rains in summers, cold weather returns in the early summer, early frosts in late summer - early autumn. Such conditions often resulted in crop damage and famine. From the XIV century the little Ice Age began. Year average temperature becomes lower by 1.4°C and summer temperature - by 2-3°C. In the XIV century the chronicles mentioned a total of 100 extreme natural phenomena, as a result of which Russia experienced more than 37 years of famine. The climate was particularly variable in late XIV - early XV century and XVI - XVII centuries, when there were years of particularly cold winters and increased humidity (due to winter precipitation). The duration of the crop growing season was reduced by three weeks. At the beginning of the XVII century spruce became dominant in the spruce-deciduous forests and co-dominant in deciduous forests. There was a transfer of settlements and agricultural land to interfluve areas and higher river valleys. The determining factors were demographic, socio-economic and historical factors, but the role of natural factors cannot be overlooked. The end of the XVI century was marked by the most severe political and economic crisis in the Russian State (oprichnina (political and administrative apparatus established by Ivan IV) and Livonian Wars by Ivan IV), which, combined with deteriorating environmental conditions (increased humidity of the climate, the average annual temperature drop) caused massive desolation of the lands. Many hundreds of villages turned into wasteland. In this period the Moscow land was reported as a "wild desert, covered with shrubs, bogs and imbanks", there were also memories of the past navigation on small rivers, data on mills on the streams. The climate deterioration caused the agrarian revolution in Russia in XIV-XVI centuries. Slash-and-burn and shifting cultivation was replaced by plow farming system (two- and three-field), which was more adapted to the harsh climatic conditions. The work is performed under project № 17-05-00662of the Russian Foundation for Basic Research

Summer temperature variability across four urban neighborhoods in Knoxville, Tennessee, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ellis, Kelsey N.; Hathaway, Jon M.; Mason, Lisa Reyes; Howe, David A.; Epps, Thomas H.; Brown, Vincent M.

2017-02-01

The urban heat island (UHI) is a well-documented effect of urbanization on local climate, identified by higher temperatures compared to surrounding areas, especially at night and during the warm season. The details of a UHI are city-specific, and microclimates may even exist within a given city. Thus, investigating the spatiotemporal variability of a city's UHI is an ongoing and critical research need. We deploy ten weather stations across Knoxville, Tennessee, to analyze the city's UHI and its differential impacts across urban neighborhoods: two each in four neighborhoods, one in more dense tree cover and one in less dense tree cover, and one each in downtown Knoxville and Ijams Nature Center that serve as control locations. Three months of temperature data (beginning 2 July 2014) are analyzed using paired-sample t tests and a three-way analysis of variance. Major findings include the following: (1) Within a given neighborhood, tree cover helps negate daytime heat (resulting in up to 1.19 ∘C lower maximum temperature), but does not have as large of an influence on minimum temperature; (2) largest temperature differences between neighborhoods occur during the day (0.38-1.16 ∘C difference), but larger differences between neighborhoods and the downtown control occur at night (1.04-1.88 ∘C difference); (3) presiding weather (i.e., air mass type) has a significant, consistent impact on the temperature in a given city, and lacks the differential impacts found at a larger-scale in previous studies; (4) distance from city center does not impact temperature as much as land use factors. This is a preliminary step towards informing local planning with a scientific understanding of how mitigation strategies may help minimize the UHI and reduce the effects of extreme weather on public health and well-being.

THE CHROMOSPHERIC SOLAR MILLIMETER-WAVE CAVITY ORIGINATES IN THE TEMPERATURE MINIMUM REGION

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

De la Luz, Victor; Raulin, Jean-Pierre; Lara, Alejandro

2013-01-10

We present a detailed theoretical analysis of the local radio emission at the lower part of the solar atmosphere. To accomplish this, we have used a numerical code to simulate the emission and transport of high-frequency electromagnetic waves from 2 GHz up to 10 THz. As initial conditions, we used VALC, SEL05, and C7 solar chromospheric models. In this way, the generated synthetic spectra allow us to study the local emission and absorption processes with high resolution in both altitude and frequency. Associated with the temperature minimum predicted by these models, we found that the local optical depth at millimetermore » wavelengths remains constant, producing an optically thin layer that is surrounded by two layers of high local emission. We call this structure the Chromospheric Solar Millimeter-wave Cavity (CSMC). The temperature profile, which features temperature minimum layers and a subsequent temperature rise, produces the CSMC phenomenon. The CSMC shows the complexity of the relation between the theoretical temperature profile and the observed brightness temperature and may help us to understand the dispersion of the observed brightness temperature in the millimeter wavelength range.« less

Changes in minimum and maximum temperatures at the Pic du Midi in relation with humidity and cloudiness, 1882-1984

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dessens, J.; Bücher, A.

In an attempt to contribute to the investigation on a global climate change, a historical series of minimum and maximum temperature data at the Pic du Midi, a mountain observatory at 2862 m a.s.l. in the French Pyrenees, is updated after correction of a systematic deviation due to a relocation of the station in 1971. These data, which now cover the 1882-1984 period, are examined in parallel with humidity and cloud cover data for the same period. From the beginning to the end of this period, observations show that the mean night-time temperature has increased by 2.39° C/100 yr while the mean daytime temperature has decreased by 0.50° C/100 yr. In consequence, the mean annual diurnal temperature range has dropped by 36%/100 yr. The maximum seasonal decrease is 46%/100 yr in spring. Season-to-season and year-to-year inter-relationships between minimum temperature, maximum temperature, relative humidity and cloud cover suggest that the decrease in maximum temperature is related to a concomitant increase of 15%/100 yr in both relative humidity and cloud cover.

The Effects of Global Warming on Temperature and Precipitation Trends in Northeast America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Francis, F.

2013-12-01

The objective of this paper is to discuss the analysis of results in temperature and precipitation (rainfall) data and how they are affected by the theory of global warming in Northeast America. The topic was chosen because it will show the trends in temperature and precipitation and their relations to global warming. Data was collected from The Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN). The data range from years of 1973 to 2012. We were able to calculate the yearly and monthly regress to estimate the relationship of variables found in the individual sources. With the use of specially designed software, analysis and manual calculations we are able to give a visualization of these trends in precipitation and temperature and to question if these trends are due to the theory of global warming. With the Calculation of the trends in slope we were able to interpret the changes in minimum and maximum temperature and precipitation. Precipitation had a 9.5 % increase over the past forty years, while maximum temperature increased 1.9 %, a greater increase is seen in minimum temperature of 3.3 % was calculated over the years. The trends in precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature is statistically significant at a 95% level.

Stationary and non-stationary extreme value modeling of extreme temperature in Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hasan, Husna; Salleh, Nur Hanim Mohd; Kassim, Suraiya

2014-09-01

Extreme annual temperature of eighteen stations in Malaysia is fitted to the Generalized Extreme Value distribution. Stationary and non-stationary models with trend are considered for each station and the Likelihood Ratio test is used to determine the best-fitting model. Results show that three out of eighteen stations i.e. Bayan Lepas, Labuan and Subang favor a model which is linear in the location parameter. A hierarchical cluster analysis is employed to investigate the existence of similar behavior among the stations. Three distinct clusters are found in which one of them consists of the stations that favor the non-stationary model. T-year estimated return levels of the extreme temperature are provided based on the chosen models.

Changes in Concurrent Precipitation and Temperature Extremes

DOE PAGES

Hao, Zengchao; AghaKouchak, Amir; Phillips, Thomas J.

2013-08-01

While numerous studies have addressed changes in climate extremes, analyses of concurrence of climate extremes are scarce, and climate change effects on joint extremes are rarely considered. This study assesses the occurrence of joint (concurrent) monthly continental precipitation and temperature extremes in Climate Research Unit (CRU) and University of Delaware (UD) observations, and in 13 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate simulations. Moreover, the joint occurrences of precipitation and temperature extremes simulated by CMIP5 climate models are compared with those derived from the CRU and UD observations for warm/wet, warm/dry, cold/wet, and cold/dry combinations of joint extremes.more » The number of occurrences of these four combinations during the second half of the 20th century (1951–2004) is assessed on a common global grid. CRU and UD observations show substantial increases in the occurrence of joint warm/dry and warm/wet combinations for the period 1978–2004 relative to 1951–1977. The results show that with respect to the sign of change in the concurrent extremes, the CMIP5 climate model simulations are in reasonable overall agreement with observations. The results reveal notable discrepancies between regional patterns and the magnitude of change in individual climate model simulations relative to the observations of precipitation and temperature.« less

Influence of land-atmosphere feedbacks on temperature and precipitation extremes in the GLACE-CMIP5 ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lorenz, Ruth; Argüeso, Daniel; Donat, Markus G.; Pitman, Andrew J.; van den Hurk, Bart; Berg, Alexis; Lawrence, David M.; Chéruy, Frédérique; Ducharne, Agnès.; Hagemann, Stefan; Meier, Arndt; Milly, P. C. D.; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

2016-01-01

We examine how soil moisture variability and trends affect the simulation of temperature and precipitation extremes in six global climate models using the experimental protocol of the Global Land-Atmosphere Coupling Experiment of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (GLACE-CMIP5). This protocol enables separate examinations of the influences of soil moisture variability and trends on the intensity, frequency, and duration of climate extremes by the end of the 21st century under a business-as-usual (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) emission scenario. Removing soil moisture variability significantly reduces temperature extremes over most continental surfaces, while wet precipitation extremes are enhanced in the tropics. Projected drying trends in soil moisture lead to increases in intensity, frequency, and duration of temperature extremes by the end of the 21st century. Wet precipitation extremes are decreased in the tropics with soil moisture trends in the simulations, while dry extremes are enhanced in some regions, in particular the Mediterranean and Australia. However, the ensemble results mask considerable differences in the soil moisture trends simulated by the six climate models. We find that the large differences between the models in soil moisture trends, which are related to an unknown combination of differences in atmospheric forcing (precipitation, net radiation), flux partitioning at the land surface, and how soil moisture is parameterized, imply considerable uncertainty in future changes in climate extremes.

Persisting and strong warming hiatus over eastern China during the past two decades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Yang; Zhai, Panmao

2017-10-01

During the past two decades since 1997, eastern China has experienced a warming hiatus punctuated by significant cooling in daily-minimum temperature (Tmin), particularly during early-mid winter. By arbitrarily configuring start and end years, a ‘vantage hiatus period’ in eastern China is detected over 1998-2013, during when the domain-averaged Tmin exhibited the strongest cooling trend and the number of significant cooling stations peaked. Regions most susceptible to the warming hiatus are located in North China, the Yangtze-Huai River Valley and South China, where significant cooling in Tmin persisted through 2016. This sustained hiatus gave rise to increasingly frequent and severe cold extremes there. Concerning its prolonged persistency and great cooling rate, the recent warming hiatus over eastern China deviates much from most historical short-term trends during the past five decades, and thus could be viewed as an outlier against the prevalent warming context.

Effect of element size on the solution accuracies of finite-element heat transfer and thermal stress analyses of space shuttle orbiter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ko, William L.; Olona, Timothy

1987-01-01

The effect of element size on the solution accuracies of finite-element heat transfer and thermal stress analyses of space shuttle orbiter was investigated. Several structural performance and resizing (SPAR) thermal models and NASA structural analysis (NASTRAN) structural models were set up for the orbiter wing midspan bay 3. The thermal model was found to be the one that determines the limit of finite-element fineness because of the limitation of computational core space required for the radiation view factor calculations. The thermal stresses were found to be extremely sensitive to a slight variation of structural temperature distributions. The minimum degree of element fineness required for the thermal model to yield reasonably accurate solutions was established. The radiation view factor computation time was found to be insignificant compared with the total computer time required for the SPAR transient heat transfer analysis.

Impact of Extreme Climatic Events on the Temperature Regimes in Urban Streams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parchem, C.; Stewart, I. T.

2016-12-01

Urban streams provide important aquatic and riparian habitat close to population centers, as well as other ecosystem services such as flood protection, storm water drainage and recreational functions. Yet, they are already greatly impacted by human action through water management, channel modifications, destruction of riparian habitat, and pollution. This has potentially rendered them more vulnerable to the climatic extremes projected from climatic changes. From 2012 - 2016, California has experienced to date the most severe drought since the beginning of weather recordings. The combination of the resulting extremely low stream flows exacerbated by low precipitation, high evaporation rates, and greater human demand on water, with high temperature have increased the temperature regime in urban streams. However, the extent to which urban stream temperatures are impacted by extreme climatic conditions and what role stream morphology, stream flow characteristics, and riparian vegetation play, are not sufficiently understood. For this project, we monitored stream temperature, dissolved oxygen, and flow depth along a network of 18 sites in the Los Gatos Creek, Guadalupe River, and Coyote Creek, located in the urban regions of the southern San Francisco Bay Area. Monitoring sites were distributed from stream headwaters to flood plains and represented a variety of stream environments. We examined the variation in stream temperature and dissolved oxygen with extreme air temperature, extremely low flow conditions, riparian shading, and channel morphology. Our results show that during the recent drought, hourly stream temperatures rose up to 34°C during summer heat waves for sites in the lower stream reaches without riparian shading. By contrast, shaded sites with deeper flows, and minimally affected by water management were able to maintain lower temperatures by several degrees. Understanding the conditions driving the response of urban streams to climatic extremes can aid in the protection of aquatic ecosystems under climatic change.

High Temperature Mechanisms for Venus Exploration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ji, Jerri; Narine, Roop; Kumar, Nishant; Singh, Sase; Gorevan, Steven

Future Venus missions, including New Frontiers Venus In-Situ Explorer and three Flagship Missions - Venus Geophysical Network, Venus Mobile Explorer and Venus Surface Sample Return all focus on searching for evidence of past climate change both on the surface and in the atmospheric composition as well as in the interior dynamics of the planet. In order to achieve these goals and objectives, many key technologies need to be developed for the Venus extreme environment. These key technologies include sample acquisition systems and other high-temperature mechanisms and mobility systems capable of extended operation when directly exposed to the Venus surface or lower atmosphere environment. Honeybee Robotics has developed two types of high temperature motors, the materials and components in both motors were selected based on the requirement to survive temperatures above a minimum of 460° C, at earth atmosphere. The prototype Switched Reluctance Motor (SRM) has been operated non-continuously for over 20 hours at Venus-like conditions (460° C temperature, mostly CO2 gas environment) and it remains functional. A drilling system, actuated by two SRMs was tested in Venus-like conditions, 460° C temperature and mostly CO2 gas environment, for more than 15 hours. The drill successfully completed three tests by drilling into chalk up to 6 inches deep in each test. A first generation Brushless DC (BLDC) Motor and high temperature resolver were also tested and the feasibility of the designs was demonstrated by the extended operation of both devices under Venus-like condition. Further development of the BLDC motor and resolver continues and these devices will, ultimately, be integrated into the development of a high temperature sample acquisition scoop and high temperature joint (awarded SBIR Phase II in October, 2007). Both the SR and BLDC motors will undergo extensive testing at Venus temperature and pressure (TRL6) and are expected to be mission ready before the next New Frontiers AO release. Scalable high temperature motor, resolver and bearing developments allow for creation of long lasting sample acquisition systems, booms, robot arms and even mobility systems that operate outside of an environment-controlled landed platform on the surface of Venus. The SR and BLDC motors are no longer expected to limit the life of Venus surface operations. With the accompanying high temperature bearing and other mechanisms development, surface operations will be limited only by available power. Therefore, the motor and resolver's capability to survive for hours (and potentially longer) in the environment is a major benefit to future Venus science missions and they also allow time for communication ground loops to optimize sample target selection and the possibility for acquiring multiple samples from the surface. The extreme temperature motors, resolver and other high temperature mechanisms therefore revolutionize the exploration of Venus.

Plant Distribution Data Show Broader Climatic Limits than Expert-Based Climatic Tolerance Estimates

PubMed Central

Curtis, Caroline A.; Bradley, Bethany A.

2016-01-01

Background Although increasingly sophisticated environmental measures are being applied to species distributions models, the focus remains on using climatic data to provide estimates of habitat suitability. Climatic tolerance estimates based on expert knowledge are available for a wide range of plants via the USDA PLANTS database. We aim to test how climatic tolerance inferred from plant distribution records relates to tolerance estimated by experts. Further, we use this information to identify circumstances when species distributions are more likely to approximate climatic tolerance. Methods We compiled expert knowledge estimates of minimum and maximum precipitation and minimum temperature tolerance for over 1800 conservation plant species from the ‘plant characteristics’ information in the USDA PLANTS database. We derived climatic tolerance from distribution data downloaded from the Global Biodiversity and Information Facility (GBIF) and corresponding climate from WorldClim. We compared expert-derived climatic tolerance to empirical estimates to find the difference between their inferred climate niches (ΔCN), and tested whether ΔCN was influenced by growth form or range size. Results Climate niches calculated from distribution data were significantly broader than expert-based tolerance estimates (Mann-Whitney p values << 0.001). The average plant could tolerate 24 mm lower minimum precipitation, 14 mm higher maximum precipitation, and 7° C lower minimum temperatures based on distribution data relative to expert-based tolerance estimates. Species with larger ranges had greater ΔCN for minimum precipitation and minimum temperature. For maximum precipitation and minimum temperature, forbs and grasses tended to have larger ΔCN while grasses and trees had larger ΔCN for minimum precipitation. Conclusion Our results show that distribution data are consistently broader than USDA PLANTS experts’ knowledge and likely provide more robust estimates of climatic tolerance, especially for widespread forbs and grasses. These findings suggest that widely available expert-based climatic tolerance estimates underrepresent species’ fundamental niche and likely fail to capture the realized niche. PMID:27870859

Using Multiple Metrics to Analyze Trends and Sensitivity of Climate Variability in New York City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, J.; Towey, K.; Booth, J. F.; Baez, S. D.

2017-12-01

As the overall temperature of Earth continues to warm, changes in the Earth's climate are being observed through extreme weather events, such as heavy precipitation events and heat waves. This study examines the daily precipitation and temperature record of the greater New York City region during the 1979-2014 period. Daily station observations from three greater New York City airports: John F. Kennedy (JFK), LaGuardia (LGA) and Newark (EWR), are used in this study. Multiple statistical metrics are used in this study to analyze trends and variability in temperature and precipitation in the greater New York City region. The temperature climatology reveals a distinct seasonal cycle, while the precipitation climatology exhibits greater annual variability. Two types of thresholds are used to examine the variability of extreme events: extreme threshold and daily anomaly threshold. The extreme threshold indicates how the strength of the overall maximum is changing whereas the daily anomaly threshold indicates if the strength of the daily maximum is changing over time. We observed an increase in the frequency of anomalous daily precipitation events over the last 36 years, with the greatest frequency occurring in 2011. The most extreme precipitation events occur during the months of late summer through early fall, with approximately four expected extreme events occurring per year during the summer and fall. For temperature, the greatest frequency and variation in temperature anomalies occur during winter and spring. In addition, temperature variance is also analyzed to determine if there is greater day-to-day temperature variability today than in the past.

Climate change and the effects of temperature extremes on Australian flying-foxes.

PubMed

Welbergen, Justin A; Klose, Stefan M; Markus, Nicola; Eby, Peggy

2008-02-22

Little is known about the effects of temperature extremes on natural systems. This is of increasing concern now that climate models predict dramatic increases in the intensity, duration and frequency of such extremes. Here we examine the effects of temperature extremes on behaviour and demography of vulnerable wild flying-foxes (Pteropus spp.). On 12 January 2002 in New South Wales, Australia, temperatures exceeding 42 degrees C killed over 3500 individuals in nine mixed-species colonies. In one colony, we recorded a predictable sequence of thermoregulatory behaviours (wing-fanning, shade-seeking, panting and saliva-spreading, respectively) and witnessed how 5-6% of bats died from hyperthermia. Mortality was greater among the tropical black flying-fox, Pteropus alecto (10-13%) than the temperate grey-headed flying-fox, Pteropus poliocephalus (less than 1%), and young and adult females were more affected than adult males (young, 23-49%; females, 10-15%; males, less than 3%). Since 1994, over 30000 flying-foxes (including at least 24500 P. poliocephalus) were killed during 19 similar events. Although P. alecto was relatively less affected, it is currently expanding its range into the more variable temperature envelope of P. poliocephalus, which increases the likelihood of die-offs occurring in this species. Temperature extremes are important additional threats to Australian flying-foxes and the ecosystem services they provide, and we recommend close monitoring of colonies where temperatures exceeding 42.0 degrees C are predicted. The effects of temperature extremes on flying-foxes highlight the complex implications of climate change for behaviour, demography and species survival.

The anthropogenic influence on heat and humidity in the US Midwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Inda Diaz, H. A.; O'Brien, T. A.; Stone, D. A.

2016-12-01

Heatwaves, and extreme temperatures in general, have a wide range of negative impacts on society, and particularly on human health. In addition to temperature, humidity plays a key role in regulating human body temperature, with higher humidities tending to reduce the effectiveness of perspiration. There is recent theoretical and observational evidence that co-occurring extreme heat and humidity can potentially have a much more dramatic impact on human health than either extreme in isolation. There is an abundance of observational evidence indicating that anthropogenic increases in greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing have contributed to an increase in the intensity and frequency of temperature extremes on a global scale. However, aside from purely thermodynamically-driven increases in near-surface humidity, there is a paucity of similar evidence for anthropogenic impacts on humidity. Thermodynamic scaling would suggest that air masses originating from the ocean would be associated with higher specific humidity in a warmer world, and transpiration from irrigated crops could further increase humidity in warm air masses. In order to explore the role of anthropogenic GHG forcing on the co-occurrence of temperature and humidity extremes in the Midwestern United States (US), we evaluate a large ensemble of global climate model simulations with and without anthropogenic GHG forcing. In particular, we examine differences between the probability distributions of near-surface temperature, humidity, wet-bulb temperature, and the joint distribution of temperature and humidity in this ensemble. Finally, we explore augmenting this experimental framework with additional simulations to explore the role of anthropogenic changes in the land surface, and in particular irrigated crops, on co-occurring extreme heat and humidity.

Global conditions in the solar corona from 2010 to 2017

PubMed Central

Morgan, Huw; Taroyan, Youra

2017-01-01

Through reduction of a huge data set spanning 2010–2017, we compare mean global changes in temperature, emission measure (EM), and underlying photospheric magnetic field of the solar corona over most of the last activity cycle. The quiet coronal mean temperature rises from 1.4 to 1.8 MK, whereas EM increases by almost a factor of 50% from solar minimum to maximum. An increased high-temperature component near 3 MK at solar maximum drives the increase in quiet coronal mean temperature, whereas the bulk of the plasma remains near 1.6 MK throughout the cycle. The mean, spatially smoothed magnitude of the quiet Sun magnetic field rises from 1.6 G in 2011 to peak at 2.0 G in 2015. Active region conditions are highly variable, but their mean remains approximately constant over the cycle, although there is a consistent decrease in active region high-temperature emission (near 3 MK) between the peak of solar maximum and present. Active region mean temperature, EM, and magnetic field magnitude are highly correlated. Correlation between sunspot/active region area and quiet coronal conditions shows the important influence of decaying sunspots in driving global changes, although we find no appreciable delay between changes in active region area and quiet Sun magnetic field strength. The hot coronal contribution to extreme ultraviolet (EUV) irradiance is dominated by the quiet corona throughout most of the cycle, whereas the high variability is driven by active regions. Solar EUV irradiance cannot be predicted accurately by sunspot index alone, highlighting the need for continued measurements. PMID:28740861

Hydrologic and climatic changes in three small watersheds after timber harvest.

Treesearch

W.B. Fowler; J.D. Helvey; E.N. Felix

1987-01-01

No significant increases in annual water yield were shown for three small watersheds in northeastern Oregon after shelterwood cutting (30-percent canopy removal, 50-percent basal area removal) and clearcutting. Average maximum air temperature increased after harvest and average minimum air temperature decreased by up to 2.6 °C. Both maximum and minimum water...

Impact of extreme high temperature on mortality and regional level definition of heat wave: a multi-city study in China.

PubMed

Gao, Jinghong; Sun, Yunzong; Liu, Qiyong; Zhou, Maigeng; Lu, Yaogui; Li, Liping

2015-02-01

Few multi-city studies have been conducted to explore the regional level definition of heat wave and examine the association between extreme high temperature and mortality in developing countries. The purpose of the present study was to investigate the impact of extreme high temperature on mortality and to explore the local definition of heat wave in five Chinese cities. We first used a distributed lag non-linear model to characterize the effects of daily mean temperature on non-accidental mortality. We then employed a generalized additive model to explore the city-specific definition of heat wave. Finally, we performed a comparative analysis to evaluate the effectiveness of the definition. For each city, we found a positive non-linear association between extreme high temperature and mortality, with the highest effects appearing within 3 days of extreme heat event onset. Specifically, we defined individual heat waves of Beijing and Tianjin as being two or more consecutive days with daily mean temperatures exceeding 30.2 °C and 29.5 °C, respectively, and Nanjing, Shanghai and Changsha heat waves as ≥3 consecutive days with daily mean temperatures higher than 32.9 °C, 32.3 °C and 34.5 °C, respectively. Comparative analysis generally supported the definition. We found extreme high temperatures were associated with increased mortality, after a short lag period, when temperatures exceeded obvious threshold levels. The city-specific definition of heat wave developed in our study may provide guidance for the establishment and implementation of early heat-health response systems for local government to deal with the projected negative health outcomes due to heat waves. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Intensification of seasonal temperature extremes prior to the 2°C global warming target

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, B. T.

2011-12-01

Given current international efforts to limit human-induced global-mean near-surface temperature increases to 2°C, relative to the pre-industrial era, there is an interest in determining what unavoidable impacts to physical, biological, and socio-economic systems might occur even if this target were met. In our research we show that substantial fractions of the globe could experience seasonal-mean temperature extremes with unprecedented regularity, even if the global-mean temperature remains below the 2°C target currently envisioned. These results have significant implications for agriculture and crop yield; disease and human health; and ecosystems and biodiversity. To obtain these results, we first develop a novel method for combining numerical-model estimates of near-term increases in grid-point temperatures with stochastically generated anomalies derived from high-resolution observations during the last half of the 20th century. This method has practical advantages because it generates results at fine spatial resolution without relying on computationally-intensive regional-model experiments; it explicitly incorporates information derived from the observations regarding interannual-to-decadal variations in seasonal-mean temperatures; and it includes the generation of thousands of realizations of the possible impacts of a global mean temperature increase on local occurrences of hot extremes. Using this method we find that even given the "committed" future global-mean temperature increase of 0.6°C (1.4°C relative to the pre-industrial era) historical seasonal-mean temperature extremes will be exceeded in at least half of all years-equivalently, the historical extreme values will become the norm-for much of Africa, the southeastern and central portions of Asia, Indonesia, and the Amazon. Should the global-mean temperature increase reach 2°C (relative to the pre-industrial era), it is more likely than not that these same regions, along with large portions of western North America, will experience historical seasonal-mean temperature extremes every single year. Further, the current historical extreme values will effectively become the norm for approximately 70-80% of the Earth's land surface.

Ongoing climatic extreme dynamics in Siberia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gordov, E. P.; Shulgina, T. M.; Okladnikov, I. G.; Titov, A. G.

2013-12-01

Ongoing global climate changes accompanied by the restructuring of global processes in the atmosphere and biosphere are strongly pronounced in the Northern Eurasia regions, especially in Siberia. Recent investigations indicate not only large changes in averaged climatic characteristics (Kabanov and Lykosov, 2006, IPCC, 2007; Groisman and Gutman, 2012), but more frequent occurrence and stronger impacts of climatic extremes are reported as well (Bulygina et al., 2007; IPCC, 2012: Climate Extremes, 2012; Oldenborh et al., 2013). This paper provides the results of daily temperature and precipitation extreme dynamics in Siberia for the last three decades (1979 - 2012). Their seasonal dynamics is assessed using 10th and 90th percentile-based threshold indices that characterize frequency, intensity and duration of climatic extremes. To obtain the geographical pattern of these variations with high spatial resolution, the sub-daily temperature data from ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis and daily precipitation amounts from APHRODITE JMA dataset were used. All extreme indices and linear trend coefficients have been calculated using web-GIS information-computational platform Climate (http://climate.scert.ru/) developed to support collaborative multidisciplinary investigations of regional climatic changes and their impacts (Gordov et al., 2012). Obtained results show that seasonal dynamics of daily temperature extremes is asymmetric for tails of cold and warm temperature extreme distributions. Namely, the intensity of warming during cold nights is higher than during warm nights, especially at high latitudes of Siberia. The similar dynamics is observed for cold and warm day-time temperatures. Slight summer cooling was observed in the central part of Siberia. It is associated with decrease in warm temperature extremes. In the southern Siberia in winter, we also observe some cooling mostly due to strengthening of the cold temperature extremes. Changes in daily precipitation extremes are spatially inhomogeneous. The largest increase in frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation is observed in the north of East Siberia. Negative trends related to precipitation amount decrease are found in the central West Siberia and in the south of East Siberia. The authors acknowledge partial financial support for this research from the Russian Foundation for Basic Research projects (11-05-01190 and 13-05-12034), SB RAS Integration project 131 and project VIII.80.2.1., the Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation contract 8345 and grant of the President of Russian Federation (decree 181).

Extreme weather events in Iran under a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alizadeh-Choobari, Omid; Najafi, M. S.

2018-01-01

Observations unequivocally show that Iran has been rapidly warming over recent decades, which in sequence has triggered a wide range of climatic impacts. Meteorological records of several ground stations across Iran with daily temporal resolution for the period 1951-2013 were analyzed to investigate the climate change and its impact on some weather extremes. Iran has warmed by nearly 1.3 °C during the period 1951-2013 (+0.2 °C per decade), with an increase of the minimum temperature at a rate two times that of the maximum. Consequently, an increase in the frequency of heat extremes and a decrease in the frequency of cold extremes have been observed. The annual precipitation has decreased by 8 mm per decade, causing an expansion of Iran's dry zones. Previous studies have pointed out that warming is generally associated with more frequent heavy precipitation because a warmer air can hold more moisture. Nevertheless, warming in Iran has been associated with more frequent light precipitation, but less frequent moderate, heavy and extremely heavy precipitation. This is because in the subtropical dry zones, a longer time is required to recharge the atmosphere with water vapour in a warmer climate, causing more water vapour to be transported from the subtropics to high latitudes before precipitations forms. In addition, the altitude of the condensation level increases in a warmer climate in subtropical regions, causing an overall decrease of precipitation. We argue that changing in the frequency of heavy precipitation in response to warming varies depending on the geographical location. Warming over the dry subtropical regions is associated with a decrease in the frequency of heavy precipitation, while an increase is expected over both subpolar and tropical regions. The warmer climate has also led to the increase in the frequency of both thunderstorms (driven by convective heating) and dust events over Iran.

Minimum important differences for the patient-specific functional scale, 4 region-specific outcome measures, and the numeric pain rating scale.

PubMed

Abbott, J Haxby; Schmitt, John

2014-08-01

Multicenter, prospective, longitudinal cohort study. To investigate the minimum important difference (MID) of the Patient-Specific Functional Scale (PSFS), 4 region-specific outcome measures, and the numeric pain rating scale (NPRS) across 3 levels of patient-perceived global rating of change in a clinical setting. The MID varies depending on the external anchor defining patient-perceived "importance." The MID for the PSFS has not been established across all body regions. One thousand seven hundred eight consecutive patients with musculoskeletal disorders were recruited from 5 physical therapy clinics. The PSFS, NPRS, and 4 region-specific outcome measures-the Oswestry Disability Index, Neck Disability Index, Upper Extremity Functional Index, and Lower Extremity Functional Scale-were assessed at the initial and final physical therapy visits. Global rating of change was assessed at the final visit. MID was calculated for the PSFS and NPRS (overall and for each body region), and for each region-specific outcome measure, across 3 levels of change defined by the global rating of change (small, medium, large change) using receiver operating characteristic curve methodology. The MID for the PSFS (on a scale from 0 to 10) ranged from 1.3 (small change) to 2.3 (medium change) to 2.7 (large change), and was relatively stable across body regions. MIDs for the NPRS (-1.5 to -3.5), Oswestry Disability Index (-12), Neck Disability Index (-14), Upper Extremity Functional Index (6 to 11), and Lower Extremity Functional Scale (9 to 16) are also reported. We reported the MID for small, medium, and large patient-perceived change on the PSFS, NPRS, Oswestry Disability Index, Neck Disability Index, Upper Extremity Functional Index, and Lower Extremity Functional Scale for use in clinical practice and research.

Scaling of precipitation extremes with temperature in the French Mediterranean region: What explains the hook shape?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drobinski, P.; Alonzo, B.; Bastin, S.; Silva, N. Da; Muller, C.

2016-04-01

Expected changes to future extreme precipitation remain a key uncertainty associated with anthropogenic climate change. Extreme precipitation has been proposed to scale with the precipitable water content in the atmosphere. Assuming constant relative humidity, this implies an increase of precipitation extremes at a rate of about 7% °C-1 globally as indicated by the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship. Increases faster and slower than Clausius-Clapeyron have also been reported. In this work, we examine the scaling between precipitation extremes and temperature in the present climate using simulations and measurements from surface weather stations collected in the frame of the HyMeX and MED-CORDEX programs in Southern France. Of particular interest are departures from the Clausius-Clapeyron thermodynamic expectation, their spatial and temporal distribution, and their origin. Looking at the scaling of precipitation extreme with temperature, two regimes emerge which form a hook shape: one at low temperatures (cooler than around 15°C) with rates of increase close to the Clausius-Clapeyron rate and one at high temperatures (warmer than about 15°C) with sub-Clausius-Clapeyron rates and most often negative rates. On average, the region of focus does not seem to exhibit super Clausius-Clapeyron behavior except at some stations, in contrast to earlier studies. Many factors can contribute to departure from Clausius-Clapeyron scaling: time and spatial averaging, choice of scaling temperature (surface versus condensation level), and precipitation efficiency and vertical velocity in updrafts that are not necessarily constant with temperature. But most importantly, the dynamical contribution of orography to precipitation in the fall over this area during the so-called "Cevenoles" events, explains the hook shape of the scaling of precipitation extremes.

Performance of an SOI Boot-Strapped Full-Bridge MOSFET Driver, Type CHT-FBDR, under Extreme Temperatures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Patterson, Richard; Hammoud, Ahmad

2009-01-01

Electronic systems designed for use in deep space and planetary exploration missions are expected to encounter extreme temperatures and wide thermal swings. Silicon-based devices are limited in their wide-temperature capability and usually require extra measures, such as cooling or heating mechanisms, to provide adequate ambient temperature for proper operation. Silicon-On-Insulator (SOI) technology, on the other hand, lately has been gaining wide spread use in applications where high temperatures are encountered. Due to their inherent design, SOI-based integrated circuit chips are able to operate at temperatures higher than those of the silicon devices by virtue of reducing leakage currents, eliminating parasitic junctions, and limiting internal heating. In addition, SOI devices provide faster switching, consume less power, and offer improved radiation-tolerance. Very little data, however, exist on the performance of such devices and circuits under cryogenic temperatures. In this work, the performance of an SOI bootstrapped, full-bridge driver integrated circuit was evaluated under extreme temperatures and thermal cycling. The investigations were carried out to establish a baseline on the functionality and to determine suitability of this device for use in space exploration missions under extreme temperature conditions.

Investigating Extreme Heat and Humidity in the Northeast United States from a Joint Hazard Perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horton, R. M.; Coffel, E.; Kushnir, Y.

2014-12-01

Recent years have seen an increasing focus on extreme high temperature events, as our understanding of societal vulnerability to such extremes has grown. Less climate research has been devoted to heat indices that consider the joint hazard posed by high temperatures and high humidity, even though heat indices are being prioritized by utility providers and public health officials. This paper evaluates how well CMIP5 models are able to reproduce the large-scale features and surface conditions associated with joint high heat and humidity events in the Northeast U.S. Projected changes in heat indices are also shown both for the full set of CMIP5 models and for a subset of models that best reproduce the statistics of historical high heat index events. The importance of considering the relationship between 1) temperature and humidity extremes and 2) projected changes in extreme temperature and humidity extremes, rather than investigating each variable independently, will be emphasized. Potential impacts of the findings on human mortality and energy consumption will be briefly discussed.

Correlations of catalytic combustor performance parameters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bulzan, D. L.

1978-01-01

Correlations for combustion efficiency percentage drop and the minimum required adiabatic reaction temperature necessary to meet emissions goals of 13.6 g CO/kg fuel and 1.64 g HC/kg fuel are presented. Combustion efficiency was found to be a function of the cell density, cell circumference, reactor length, reference velocity, and adiabatic reaction temperature. The percentage pressure drop at an adiabatic reaction temperature of 1450 K was found to be proportional to the reference velocity to the 1.5 power and to the reactor length. It is inversely proportional to the pressure, cell hydraulic diameter, and fractional open area. The minimum required adiabatic reaction temperature was found to increase with reference velocity and decrease with cell circumference, cell density and reactor length. A catalyst factor was introduced into the correlations to account for differences between catalysts. Combustion efficiency, the percentage pressure drop, and the minimum required adiabatic reaction temperature were found to be a function of the catalyst factor. The data was from a 12 cm-diameter test rig with noble metal reactors using propane fuel at an inlet temperature of 800 K.

Long-term trend in ground-based air temperature and its responses to atmospheric circulation and anthropogenic activity in the Yangtze River Delta, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peng, Xia; She, Qiannan; Long, Lingbo; Liu, Min; Xu, Qian; Zhang, Jiaxin; Xiang, Weining

2017-10-01

The Yangtze River Delta (YRD), including Shanghai City, Jiangsu and Zhejiang Provinces, is the largest metropolitan region in China. In the past decades, the region has experienced massive urbanization and detrimentally affected the environment in the region. Identifying the spatio-temporal variations of climate change and its influencing mechanism in the YRD is an important task for assessing their impacts on the local society and ecosystem. Based on long-term (1958-2014) observation data of meteorological stations, three temperature indices, i.e. extreme maximum temperature (TXx), extreme minimum temperature (TNn), and mean temperature (TMm), were selected and spatialized with climatological calculations and spatial techniques. Evolution and spatial heterogeneity of three temperature indices over YRD as well as their links to atmospheric circulation and anthropogenic activity were investigated. In the whole YRD, a statistically significant overall uptrend could be detected in three temperature indices with the Mann-Kendall (M-K) trend test method. The linear increasing trend for TMm was 0.31 °C/10 a, which was higher than the global average (0.12 °C/10 a during 1951-2012). For TXx and TNn, the increasing rates were 0.41 °C/10 a and 0.52 °C/10 a. Partial correlation analysis indicated that TMm was more related with TXx (rp = 0.68, p < 0.001) than TNn (rp = 0.48, p < 0.001). Furthermore, it was detected with M-K analysis at pixel scale that 62.17%, 96.75% and 97.05% of the areas in the YRD showed significant increasing trends for TXx, TNn and TMm, respectively. The increasing trend was more obvious in the southern mountainous areas than the northern plains areas. Further analysis indicated that the variation of TXx over YRD was mainly influenced by anthropogenic activities (e.g. economic development), while TNn was more affected by atmospheric circulations (e.g., the Eurasian zonal circulation index (EAZ) and the cold air activity index (CA)). For TMm, it was a result of comprehensive effects of both atmospheric circulations and anthropogenic activities. On the whole, the northern plain areas was mainly dominated by atmospheric circulations, while the southern mountain areas of YRD was more affected by anthropogenic activities. The findings of this study might help to build a better understanding of the mechanics of temperature variations, and assess the potentially influencing factors on temperature changes.

Seasonal temperature extremes in Potsdam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kundzewicz, Zbigniew; Huang, Shaochun

2010-12-01

The awareness of global warming is well established and results from the observations made on thousands of stations. This paper complements the large-scale results by examining a long time-series of high-quality temperature data from the Secular Meteorological Station in Potsdam, where observation records over the last 117 years, i.e., from January 1893 are available. Tendencies of change in seasonal temperature-related climate extremes are demonstrated. "Cold" extremes have become less frequent and less severe than in the past, while "warm" extremes have become more frequent and more severe. Moreover, the interval of the occurrence of frost has been decreasing, while the interval of the occurrence of hot days has been increasing. However, many changes are not statistically significant, since the variability of temperature indices at the Potsdam station has been very strong.

Annual maximum and minimum lake levels for Indiana, 1942-85

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fowler, Kathleen K.

1988-01-01

Indiana has many natural and manmade lakes. Lake-level data are available for 217 lakes. These data were collected during water years 1942-85 by use of staff gages and, more recently, continuous recorders. The period of record at each site ranges from 1 to 43 years. Data from the lake stations have been compiled, and maximum and minimum lake levels for each year of record are reported. In addition to annual maximum and minimum lake levels, each lake station is described by gage location, surface area, drainage area, period of record, datum of gage, gage type, established legal level, lake level control, inlets and outlets, and extremes for the period of record. 

Development of miniature moving magnet cryocooler SX040

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rühlich, I.; Mai, M.; Rosenhagen, C.; Schreiter, A.; Möhl, C.

2011-06-01

State of the art high performance cooled IR systems need to have more than just excellent E/O performance. Minimum size weight and power (SWaP) are the design goals to meet our forces' mission requirements. Key enabler for minimum SWaP of IR imagers is the operation temperature of the focal plane array (FPA) employed. State of the art MCT or InAsSb nBn technology has the potential to rise the FPA temperature from 77 K to 130-150 K (high operation temperature HOT) depending on the specific cut-off wavelength. Using a HOT FPA will significantly lower SWaP and keep those parameters finally dominated by the employed cryocooler. Therefore compact high performance cryocoolers are mandatory. For highest MTTF life AIM developed its Flexure Bearing Moving Magnet product family "SF". Such coolers achieve more than 20000 h MTTF with Stirling type expander and more than 5 years MTTF life with Pulse Tube coldfinger (like for Space applications). To keep the high lifetime potential but to significantly improve SWaP AIM is developing its "SX" type cooler family. The new SX040 cooler incorporates a highly efficient dual piston Moving Magnet driving mechanism resulting in very compact compressor of less than 100mm length. The cooler's high lifetime is also achieved by placing the coils outside the helium vessel as usual for moving magnet motors. The mating ¼" expander is extremely compact with less than 63 mm length. This allows a total dewar length from optical window to expander warm end of less than 100 mm even for large cold shields. The cooler is optimized for HOT detectors with operating temperatures exceeding 95 K. While this kind of cooler is the perfect match for many applications, handheld sights or targeting devices for the dismounted soldier are even more challenging with respect to SWaP. AIM therefore started to develop an even smaller cooler type with single piston and balancer. This paper gives an overview on the development of this new compact cryocooler. Technical details and performance data will be shown.

Ecological covariates based predictive model of malaria risk in the state of Chhattisgarh, India.

PubMed

Kumar, Rajesh; Dash, Chinmaya; Rani, Khushbu

2017-09-01

Malaria being an endemic disease in the state of Chhattisgarh and ecologically dependent mosquito-borne disease, the study is intended to identify the ecological covariates of malaria risk in districts of the state and to build a suitable predictive model based on those predictors which could assist developing a weather based early warning system. This secondary data based analysis used one month lagged district level malaria positive cases as response variable and ecological covariates as independent variables which were tested with fixed effect panelled negative binomial regression models. Interactions among the covariates were explored using two way factorial interaction in the model. Although malaria risk in the state possesses perennial characteristics, higher parasitic incidence was observed during the rainy and winter seasons. The univariate analysis indicated that the malaria incidence risk was statistically significant associated with rainfall, maximum humidity, minimum temperature, wind speed, and forest cover ( p  < 0.05). The efficient predictive model include the forest cover [IRR-1.033 (1.024-1.042)], maximum humidity [IRR-1.016 (1.013-1.018)], and two-way factorial interactions between district specific averaged monthly minimum temperature and monthly minimum temperature, monthly minimum temperature was statistically significant [IRR-1.44 (1.231-1.695)] whereas the interaction term has a protective effect [IRR-0.982 (0.974-0.990)] against malaria infections. Forest cover, maximum humidity, minimum temperature and wind speed emerged as potential covariates to be used in predictive models for modelling the malaria risk in the state which could be efficiently used for early warning systems in the state.

Multiobjective generalized extremal optimization algorithm for simulation of daylight illuminants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Srividya Ravindra; Kurian, Ciji Pearl; Gomes-Borges, Marcos Eduardo

2017-10-01

Daylight illuminants are widely used as references for color quality testing and optical vision testing applications. Presently used daylight simulators make use of fluorescent bulbs that are not tunable and occupy more space inside the quality testing chambers. By designing a spectrally tunable LED light source with an optimal number of LEDs, cost, space, and energy can be saved. This paper describes an application of the generalized extremal optimization (GEO) algorithm for selection of the appropriate quantity and quality of LEDs that compose the light source. The multiobjective approach of this algorithm tries to get the best spectral simulation with minimum fitness error toward the target spectrum, correlated color temperature (CCT) the same as the target spectrum, high color rendering index (CRI), and luminous flux as required for testing applications. GEO is a global search algorithm based on phenomena of natural evolution and is especially designed to be used in complex optimization problems. Several simulations have been conducted to validate the performance of the algorithm. The methodology applied to model the LEDs, together with the theoretical basis for CCT and CRI calculation, is presented in this paper. A comparative result analysis of M-GEO evolutionary algorithm with the Levenberg-Marquardt conventional deterministic algorithm is also presented.