Equatorial temperature anomaly during solar minimum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suhasini, R.; Raghavarao, R.; Mayr, H. G.; Hoegy, W. R.; Wharton, L. E.

2001-11-01

We show evidence for the occurrence of the equatorial temperature anomaly (ETA) during solar minimum by analyzing the temperature and total ion density data from the Neutral Atmosphere Temperature Experiment (NATE) and the Cylindrical Electrostatic Probe (CEP), respectively, on board the Atmospheric Explorer-E satellite. The chosen data refer to a height of ~254 km in the African and Asian longitude sector (340.1°E-200°E) during a summer season in the Southern Hemisphere. As during the solar maximum period, the spatial characteristics of the ETA are similar to those of the equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA). A minimum in the gas temperature is collocated with the minimum in the ion density at the dip equator, and a temperature maximum on the south side of the equator is collocated with the density maximum of the EIA. The daytime behavior of ETA formation is about the same as that of EIA as both of them are clearly present at around 1300 and 1400 local solar time (LST) only. At 1400 LST the difference between the temperatures at the crest and the trough (ETA strength) reaches a maximum value of about 100°K which is ~14% of the temperature at the trough. Like the EIA, the ETA also suddenly disappears after 1400 LST. Thus the EIA appears to be a prerequisite for the ETA formation. During the premidnight time (2200 LST), however, while the EIA is nonexistent, the temperature distribution forms a pattern opposite to that at 1400 LST in the daytime. It shows a maximum around the dip equator and a broad minimum at the daytime crest region where the postsunset cooling also is faster and occurs earlier than at the dip equator. This nighttime maximum appears to be related to the signature of the midnight temperature maximum (MTM). Mass Spectrometer Incoherent Scatter (MSIS) model temperatures, in general, are higher than the observed average temperatures for the summer season and in particular for the region around the dip equator around noon hours.

Trend of annual temperature and frequency of extreme events in the MATOPIBA region of Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salvador, Mozar de A.; de Brito, J. I. B.

2017-06-01

During the 1980s, a new agricultural frontier arouse in Brazil, which occupied part of the states of Maranhão, Tocantins, Piauí, and Bahia. Currently, this new frontier is known as the MATOPIBA region. The region went through intense transformations in its social and environmental characteristics, with the emergence of extensive areas of intensive agriculture and large herds. The purpose of this research was to study the climatic variabilities of temperature in the MATOPIBA region through extreme climate indexes of ClimAp tool. Data from 11 weather stations were analyzed for yearly air temperature (maximum and minimum) in the period of 1970 to 2012. To verify the trend in the series, we used methods of linear regression analysis and Kendall-tau test. The annual analysis of maximum and minimum temperatures and of the temperature extremes indexes showed a strong positive trend in practically every series (with p value less than 0.05). These results indicated that the region went through to a significant heating process in the last 3 decades. The indices of extreme also showed a significant positive trend in most of the analyzed stations, indicating a higher frequency of warm days during the year.

Estimation of minimum ventilation requirement of dairy cattle barns for different outdoor temperature and its affects on indoor temperature: Bursa case.

PubMed

Yaslioglu, Erkan; Simsek, Ercan; Kilic, Ilker

2007-04-15

In the study, 10 different dairy cattle barns with natural ventilation system were investigated in terms of structural aspects. VENTGRAPH software package was used to estimate minimum ventilation requirements for three different outdoor design temperatures (-3, 0 and 1.7 degrees C). Variation in indoor temperatures was also determined according to the above-mentioned conditions. In the investigated dairy cattle barns, on condition that minimum ventilation requirement to be achieved for -3, 0 and 1.7 degrees C outdoor design temperature and 70, 80% Indoor Relative Humidity (IRH), estimated indoor temperature were ranged from 2.2 to 12.2 degrees C for 70% IRH, 4.3 to 15.0 degrees C for 80% IRH. Barn type, outdoor design temperature and indoor relative humidity significantly (p < 0.01) affect the indoor temperature. The highest ventilation requirement was calculated for straw yard (13879 m3 h(-1)) while the lowest was estimated for tie-stall (6169.20 m3 h(-1)). Estimated minimum ventilation requirements per animal were significantly (p < 0.01) different according to the barn types. Effect of outdoor esign temperatures on minimum ventilation requirements and minimum ventilation requirements per animal was found to be significant (p < 0.05, p < 0.01). Estimated indoor temperatures were in thermoneutral zone (-2 to 20 degrees C). Therefore, one can be said that use of naturally ventilated cold dairy barns in the region will not lead to problems associated with animal comfort in winter.

Climate and climate change and infectious disease risk in Thailand: A spatial study of dengue hemorrhagic fever using GIS and remotely-sensed imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuzera, Kristopher

The scientific community has widely accepted that climate plays a key role in the sustainability and transmission of many infectious diseases. Global climate change can potentially trigger the spread of disease into new regions and increase the intensity of disease in regions where it is endemic. This study explores the association between monthly conditions of climate change to changes in disease risk, emphasizing the potential spread of dengue fever due to climate change in Thailand. This study also develops techniques new to GIS and remote sensing that generate surfaces of daily minimum temperature toward identifying areas at greater transmission risk. Dengue fever expansion due to global warming is a serious concern for Thailand where warming temperatures may increase the size of the habitat of the disease-spreading vector, Aedes aegypti, particularly during cooler months when transmission is limited by environmental conditions. In this study, first, the association between past dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) and climate in Thailand is determined. Second, evidence of recent climate change is related to changes in DHF rates. Third, daily minimum temperature is derived from remote sensing toward identifying the spatial and temporal limitations of potential transmission risk. The results indicate that minimum temperature has recently experienced a rapid increase, particularly in the winter months when transmission is low. This is associated with a recent rise in winter DHF cases. As increasing minimum temperatures in these regions are anticipated to continue, we can expect dengue transmission rates to also increase throughout the year.

Estimation of Surface Air Temperature from MODIS 1km Resolution Land Surface Temperature Over Northern China

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shen, Suhung; Leptoukh, Gregory G.; Gerasimov, Irina

2010-01-01

Surface air temperature is a critical variable to describe the energy and water cycle of the Earth-atmosphere system and is a key input element for hydrology and land surface models. It is a very important variable in agricultural applications and climate change studies. This is a preliminary study to examine statistical relationships between ground meteorological station measured surface daily maximum/minimum air temperature and satellite remotely sensed land surface temperature from MODIS over the dry and semiarid regions of northern China. Studies were conducted for both MODIS-Terra and MODIS-Aqua by using year 2009 data. Results indicate that the relationships between surface air temperature and remotely sensed land surface temperature are statistically significant. The relationships between the maximum air temperature and daytime land surface temperature depends significantly on land surface types and vegetation index, but the minimum air temperature and nighttime land surface temperature has little dependence on the surface conditions. Based on linear regression relationship between surface air temperature and MODIS land surface temperature, surface maximum and minimum air temperatures are estimated from 1km MODIS land surface temperature under clear sky conditions. The statistical errors (sigma) of the estimated daily maximum (minimum) air temperature is about 3.8 C(3.7 C).

Summer weather characteristics and periodicity observed over the period 1888-2013 in the region of Belgrade, Serbia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vujović, Dragana; Todorović, Nedeljko; Paskota, Mira

2018-04-01

With the goal of finding summer climate patterns in the region of Belgrade (Serbia) over the period 1888-2013, different techniques of multivariate statistical analysis were used in order to analyze the simultaneous changes of a number of climatologic parameters. An increasing trend of the mean daily minimum temperature was detected. In the recent decades (1960-2013), this increase was much more pronounced. The number of days with the daily minimum temperature greater or equal to 20 °C also increased significantly. Precipitation had no statistically significant trend. Spectral analysis showed a repetitive nature of the climatologic parameters which had periods that roughly can be classified into three groups, with the durations of the following: (1) 6 to 7 years, (2) 10 to 18 years, and (3) 21, 31, and 41 years. The temperature variables mainly had one period of repetitiveness of 5 to 7 years. Among other variables, the correlations of regional fluctuations of the temperature and precipitation and atmospheric circulation indices were analyzed. The North Atlantic oscillation index had the same periodicity as that of the precipitation, and it was not correlated to the temperature variables. Atlantic multidecadal oscillation index correlated well to the summer mean daily minimum and summer mean temperatures. The underlying structure of the data was analyzed by principal component analysis, which detected the following four easily interpreted dimensions: More sunshine-Higher temperature, Precipitation, Extreme heats, and Changeable summer.

Relationship of magnetic field strength and brightness of fine-structure elements in the solar temperature minimum region

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cook, J. W.; Ewing, J. A.

1990-01-01

A quantitative relationship was determined between magnetic field strength (or magnetic flux) from photospheric magnetograph observations and the brightness temperature of solar fine-structure elements observed at 1600 A, where the predominant flux source is continuum emission from the solar temperature minimum region. A Kitt Peak magnetogram and spectroheliograph observations at 1600 A taken during a sounding rocket flight of the High Resolution Telescope and Spectrograph from December 11, 1987 were used. The statistical distributions of brightness temperature in the quiet sun at 1600 A, and absolute value of magnetic field strength in the same area were determined from these observations. Using a technique which obtains the best-fit relationship of a given functional form between these two histogram distributions, a quantitative relationship was determined between absolute value of magnetic field strength B and brightness temperature which is essentially linear from 10 to 150 G. An interpretation is suggested, in which a basal heating occurs generally, while brighter elements are produced in magnetic regions with temperature enhancements proportional to B.

Persistence and long-term memories of daily maximum and minimum temperatures in southern South America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naumann, Gustavo; Vargas, Walter M.; Minetti, Juan L.

2011-10-01

The persistence and long-term memories in daily maximum and minimum temperature series during the instrumental period in southern South America were analysed. Here, we found a markedly seasonal pattern both for short- and long-term memories that can lead to enhanced predictability on intraseasonal timescales. In addition, well-defined spatial patterns of these properties were found in the region. Throughout the entire region, the strongest dependence was observed in autumn and early winter. In the Patagonia region only, the temperatures exhibited more memory during the spring. In general, these elements indicate that nonlinear interactions exist between the annual cycles of temperature and its anomalies. Knowledge of the spatiotemporal behaviour of these long-term memories can be used in the building of stochastic models that only use persistence. It is possible to propose two objective forecast models based on linear interactions associated with persistence and one that allows for the use of information from nonlinear interactions that are manifested in the form of forerunners.

Spatial distribution of unidirectional trends in temperature and temperature extremes in Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khan, Najeebullah; Shahid, Shamsuddin; Ismail, Tarmizi bin; Wang, Xiao-Jun

2018-06-01

Pakistan is one of the most vulnerable countries of the world to temperature extremes due to its predominant arid climate and geographic location in the fast temperature rising zone. Spatial distribution of the trends in annual and seasonal temperatures and temperature extremes over Pakistan has been assessed in this study. The gauge-based gridded daily temperature data of Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST) having a spatial resolution of 1° × 1° was used for the assessment of trends over the period 1960-2013 using modified Mann-Kendall test (MMK), which can discriminate the multi-decadal oscillatory variations from secular trends. The results show an increase in the annual average of daily maximum and minimum temperatures in 92 and 99% area of Pakistan respectively at 95% level of confidence. The annual temperature is increasing faster in southern high-temperature region compared to other parts of the country. The minimum temperature is rising faster (0.17-0.37 °C/decade) compared to maximum temperature (0.17-0.29 °C/decade) and therefore declination of diurnal temperature range (DTR) (- 0.15 to - 0.08 °C/decade) in some regions. The annual numbers of both hot and cold days are increasing in whole Pakistan except in the northern sub-Himalayan region. Heat waves are on the rise, especially in the hot Sindh plains and the Southern coastal region, while the cold waves are becoming lesser in the northern cold region. Obtained results contradict with the findings of previous studies on temperature trends, which indicate the need for reassessment of climatic trends in Pakistan using the MMK test to understand the anthropogenic impacts of climate change.

α Centauri A in the far infrared. First measurement of the temperature minimum of a star other than the Sun

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liseau, R.; Montesinos, B.; Olofsson, G.; Bryden, G.; Marshall, J. P.; Ardila, D.; Bayo Aran, A.; Danchi, W. C.; del Burgo, C.; Eiroa, C.; Ertel, S.; Fridlund, M. C. W.; Krivov, A. V.; Pilbratt, G. L.; Roberge, A.; Thébault, P.; Wiegert, J.; White, G. J.

2013-01-01

Context. Chromospheres and coronae are common phenomena on solar-type stars. Understanding the energy transfer to these heated atmospheric layers requires direct access to the relevant empirical data. Study of these structures has, by and large, been limited to the Sun thus far. Aims: The region of the temperature reversal can be directly observed only in the far infrared and submillimetre spectral regime. We aim at determining the characteristics of the atmosphere in the region of the temperature minimum of the solar sister star α Cen A. As a bonus this will also provide a detailed mapping of the spectral energy distribution, i.e. knowledge that is crucial when searching for faint, Kuiper belt-like dust emission around other stars. Methods: For the nearby binary system α Cen, stellar parameters are known with high accuracy from measurements. For the basic model parameters Teff, log g and [Fe/H], we interpolate stellar model atmospheres in the grid of Gaia/PHOENIX and compute the corresponding model for the G2 V star α Cen A. Comparison with photometric measurements shows excellent agreement between observed photospheric data in the optical and infrared. For longer wavelengths, the modelled spectral energy distribution is compared to Spitzer-MIPS, Herschel-PACS, Herschel-SPIRE, and APEX-LABOCA photometry. A specifically tailored Uppsala model based on the MARCS code and extending further in wavelength is used to gauge the emission characteristics of α Cen A in the far infared. Results: Similar to the Sun, the far infrared (FIR) emission of α Cen A originates in the minimum temperature region above the stellar photosphere in the visible. However, in comparison with the solar case, the FIR photosphere of α Cen A appears marginally cooler, Tmin ~ T160 μm = 3920 ± 375 K. Beyond the minimum near 160 μm, the brightness temperatures increase, and this radiation very likely originates in warmer regions of the chromosphere of α Cen A. Conclusions: To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time a temperature minimum has been directly measured on a main-sequence star other than the Sun. Based on observations with Herschel, which is an ESA space observatory with science instruments provided by the European-led Principal Investigator consortia and with important participation from NASA.

Impact of Land Surface Initialization Approach on Subseasonal Forecast Skill: a Regional Analysis in the Southern Hemisphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hirsch, Annette L.; Kala, Jatin; Pitman, Andy J.; Carouge, Claire; Evans, Jason P.; Haverd, Vanessa; Mocko, David

2014-01-01

The authors use a sophisticated coupled land-atmosphere modeling system for a Southern Hemisphere subdomain centered over southeastern Australia to evaluate differences in simulation skill from two different land surface initialization approaches. The first approach uses equilibrated land surface states obtained from offline simulations of the land surface model, and the second uses land surface states obtained from reanalyses. The authors find that land surface initialization using prior offline simulations contribute to relative gains in subseasonal forecast skill. In particular, relative gains in forecast skill for temperature of 10%-20% within the first 30 days of the forecast can be attributed to the land surface initialization method using offline states. For precipitation there is no distinct preference for the land surface initialization method, with limited gains in forecast skill irrespective of the lead time. The authors evaluated the asymmetry between maximum and minimum temperatures and found that maximum temperatures had the largest gains in relative forecast skill, exceeding 20% in some regions. These results were statistically significant at the 98% confidence level at up to 60 days into the forecast period. For minimum temperature, using reanalyses to initialize the land surface contributed to relative gains in forecast skill, reaching 40% in parts of the domain that were statistically significant at the 98% confidence level. The contrasting impact of the land surface initialization method between maximum and minimum temperature was associated with different soil moisture coupling mechanisms. Therefore, land surface initialization from prior offline simulations does improve predictability for temperature, particularly maximum temperature, but with less obvious improvements for precipitation and minimum temperature over southeastern Australia.

Methodology and results of calculating central California surface temperature trends: Evidence of human-induced climate change?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Christy, J.R.; Norris, W.B.; Redmond, K.; Gallo, K.P.

2006-01-01

A procedure is described to construct time series of regional surface temperatures and is then applied to interior central California stations to test the hypothesis that century-scale trend differences between irrigated and nonirrigated regions may be identified. The procedure requires documentation of every point in time at which a discontinuity in a station record may have occurred through (a) the examination of metadata forms (e.g., station moves) and (b) simple statistical tests. From this "homogeneous segments" of temperature records for each station are defined. Biases are determined for each segment relative to all others through a method employing mathematical graph theory. The debiased segments are then merged, forming a complete regional time series. Time series of daily maximum and minimum temperatures for stations in the irrigated San Joaquin Valley (Valley) and nearby nonirrigated Sierra Nevada (Sierra) were generated for 1910-2003. Results show that twentieth-century Valley minimum temperatures are warming at a highly significant rate in all seasons, being greatest in summer and fall (> +0.25??C decade-1). The Valley trend of annual mean temperatures is +0.07?? ?? 0.07??C decade-1. Sierra summer and fall minimum temperatures appear to be cooling, but at a less significant rate, while the trend of annual mean Sierra temperatures is an unremarkable -0.02?? ?? 0.10??C decade-1. A working hypothesis is that the relative positive trends in Valley minus Sierra minima (>0.4??C decade-1 for summer and fall) are related to the altered surface environment brought about by the growth of irrigated agriculture, essentially changing a high-albedo desert into a darker, moister, vegetated plain. ?? 2006 American Meteorological Society.

Morphology, surface temperatures, and northern limits of columnar cacti in the Sonoran Desert

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nobel, P.S.

1980-02-01

Interspecific morphological differences and intraspecific morphological changes with latitude were evaluated to help examine the distributional ranges of Carnegiea gigantea, Lemaireocereus thurberi, Lophocereus schottii, Pachycereus pecten-aboriginum, and P. pringlei in the Sonoran Desert (US and Mexico). A computer model, which predicted the average surface temperature of the stem within 1/sup 0/C of that measured hourly throughout a 24-h period, was particularly useful in studying the thermal relations of the stem apex, where the lowest surface temperature occurred. Simulated increases in stem diameter raised the minimum apical temperature for C. gigantea and may help account for the extension of its rangemore » to higher latitudes than the other species studied. However, diameter increases led to a slight decrease in minimum apical temperatures for Lophocereus schottii. The immature stems of L. schottii are morphologically distinct from the mature stems, which caused minimum apical temperatures to be 1.6/sup 0/C lower for the immature stems under given environmental conditions; thus, freezing damage to the immature stems could limit the northward extension of the range of this species. As the apical pubescence in the simulations was increased up to the normal amount (10 mm), the minimum apical temperature for the stem of C. gigantea increased 2.4/sup 0/C. Simulated increases in spine shading of the apexalso raised the minimum apical temperatures, again indicating the influence of morphological features on the temperature of the meristematic region.« less

How changes of climate extremes affect summer and winter crop yields and water productivity in the southeast USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, D.; Cammarano, D.

2017-12-01

Modeling changes of crop production at regional scale is important to make adaptation measures for sustainably food supply under global change. In this study, we explore how changing climate extremes in the 20th and 21st century affect maize (summer crop) and wheat (winter crop) yields in an agriculturally important region: the southeast United States. We analyze historical (1950-1999) and projected (2006-2055) precipitation and temperature extremes by calculating the changes of 18 climate extreme indices using the statistically downscaled CMIP5 data from 10 general circulation models (GCMs). To evaluate how these climate extremes affect maize and wheat yields, historical baseline and projected maize and wheat yields under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios are simulated using the DSSAT-CERES maize and wheat models driven by the same downscaled GCMs data. All of the changes are examined at 110 locations over the study region. The results show that most of the precipitation extreme indices do not have notable change; mean precipitation, precipitation intensity, and maximum 1-day precipitation are generally increased; the number of rainy days is decreased. The temperature extreme indices mostly showed increased values on mean temperature, number of high temperature days, diurnal temperature range, consecutive high temperature days, maximum daily maximum temperature, and minimum daily minimum temperature; the number of low temperature days and number of consecutive low temperature days are decreased. The conditional probabilistic relationships between changes in crop yields and changes in extreme indices suggested different responses of crop yields to climate extremes during sowing to anthesis and anthesis to maturity periods. Wheat yields and crop water productivity for wheat are increased due to an increased CO2 concentration and minimum temperature; evapotranspiration, maize yields, and crop water productivity for wheat are decreased owing to the increased temperature extremes. We found the effects of precipitation changes on both yields are relatively uncertain.

Possible future changes in South East Australian frost frequency: an inter-comparison of statistical downscaling approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crimp, Steven; Jin, Huidong; Kokic, Philip; Bakar, Shuvo; Nicholls, Neville

2018-04-01

Anthropogenic climate change has already been shown to effect the frequency, intensity, spatial extent, duration and seasonality of extreme climate events. Understanding these changes is an important step in determining exposure, vulnerability and focus for adaptation. In an attempt to support adaptation decision-making we have examined statistical modelling techniques to improve the representation of global climate model (GCM) derived projections of minimum temperature extremes (frosts) in Australia. We examine the spatial changes in minimum temperature extreme metrics (e.g. monthly and seasonal frost frequency etc.), for a region exhibiting the strongest station trends in Australia, and compare these changes with minimum temperature extreme metrics derived from 10 GCMs, from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP 5) datasets, and via statistical downscaling. We compare the observed trends with those derived from the "raw" GCM minimum temperature data as well as examine whether quantile matching (QM) or spatio-temporal (spTimerQM) modelling with Quantile Matching can be used to improve the correlation between observed and simulated extreme minimum temperatures. We demonstrate, that the spTimerQM modelling approach provides correlations with observed daily minimum temperatures for the period August to November of 0.22. This represents an almost fourfold improvement over either the "raw" GCM or QM results. The spTimerQM modelling approach also improves correlations with observed monthly frost frequency statistics to 0.84 as opposed to 0.37 and 0.81 for the "raw" GCM and QM results respectively. We apply the spatio-temporal model to examine future extreme minimum temperature projections for the period 2016 to 2048. The spTimerQM modelling results suggest the persistence of current levels of frost risk out to 2030, with the evidence of continuing decadal variation.

Projected changes in rainfall and temperature over homogeneous regions of India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patwardhan, Savita; Kulkarni, Ashwini; Rao, K. Koteswara

2018-01-01

The impact of climate change on the characteristics of seasonal maximum and minimum temperature and seasonal summer monsoon rainfall is assessed over five homogeneous regions of India using a high-resolution regional climate model. Providing REgional Climate for Climate Studies (PRECIS) is developed at Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, UK. The model simulations are carried out over South Asian domain for the continuous period of 1961-2098 at 50-km horizontal resolution. Here, three simulations from a 17-member perturbed physics ensemble (PPE) produced using HadCM3 under the Quantifying Model Uncertainties in Model Predictions (QUMP) project of Hadley Centre, Met. Office, UK, have been used as lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) for the 138-year simulations of the regional climate model under Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B scenario. The projections indicate the increase in the summer monsoon (June through September) rainfall over all the homogeneous regions (15 to 19%) except peninsular India (around 5%). There may be marginal change in the frequency of medium and heavy rainfall events (>20 mm) towards the end of the present century. The analysis over five homogeneous regions indicates that the mean maximum surface air temperatures for the pre-monsoon season (March-April-May) as well as the mean minimum surface air temperature for winter season (January-February) may be warmer by around 4 °C towards the end of the twenty-first century.

Investigation of temperature and its indices under climate change scenarios over different regions of Rajasthan state in India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, Aditya; Sharma, Devesh; Panda, S. K.; Dubey, Swatantra Kumar; Pradhan, Rajani K.

2018-02-01

The ongoing increases in concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gas will most likely affect global climate for the rest of this century. Global warming brings a huge provocation to society and human beings. Single extreme events and increased climate variability have a greater impact than long-term changes in the mean of climatic variables. This study analyzed the temperature projections for Rajasthan state, India using data obtain from two General Circulation Models (GFCM21 and HadCM3) for three Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Range of Emission Scenarios (SRES) A1B, A2, and B1. A 30 years of maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperature for the period 1976-2005 has been obtained from India Meteorological Department (IMD) and by using LARS-WG5 to generate the long-term weather series for three different periods i.e. 2011-2040 (2025s), 2041-2070 (2055s), and 2071-2100 (2085s). Further to determine the changes in extreme temperature events, the data for the baseline period and the future periods was represented by eight extreme temperature indices. Results illustrate that an increase in minimum and the maximum temperature are observed in all the three future periods. The average mean temperature for base period and three future periods over four regions of Rajasthan was observed highest in region 3 which shows an incessantly increased in mean temperature about 2.6 °C i.e. north-east and north-west part of Rajasthan. Two GCMs depicts that the incessant temperatures may be increase in the future and future maximum temperature in all the seasons varies from 2.43 °C to 4.27 °C in the direction from south to north of Rajasthan during 2071-2100. While for minimum temperature, the range of temperature changes varies from 0.23 °C to 1.42 °C from south-east to north-west of Rajasthan during 2011-2040. In the temperature indices, the number of tropical nights (TR20), warmest day (TX90p), warmest night (TN90p) and summer days (SU25) is expected to increase during all three future periods. The maximum changes was found in region 2 (39.4 days) and region 1 (38.8 days) during the 2071-2100 periods, followed by 2041-2070 and 2011-2040. In all the four regions, the annual occurrence of Cold Spells Duration Indicator (CSDI) decreased and Warm Spells Duration Indicator (WSDI) increased for all three future periods.

Assessing the combined effects of climatic factors on spring wheat phenophase and grain yield in Inner Mongolia, China

PubMed Central

Pu, Feiyu; Li, Yunpeng; Xu, Jingwen; Li, Ning; Zhang, Yi; Guo, Jianping; Pan, Zhihua

2017-01-01

Understanding the regional relationships between climate change and crop production will benefit strategic decisions for future agricultural adaptation in China. In this study, the combined effects of climatic factors on spring wheat phenophase and grain yield over the past three decades in Inner Mongolia, China, were explored based on the daily climate variables from 1981–2014 and detailed observed data of spring wheat from 1981–2014. Inner Mongolia was divided into three different climate type regions, the eastern, central and western regions. The data were gathered from 10 representative agricultural meteorological experimental stations in Inner Mongolia and analysed with the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) model. First, the performance of the APSIM model in the spring wheat planting areas of Inner Mongolia was tested. Then, the key climatic factors limiting the phenophases and yield of spring wheat were identified. Finally, the responses of spring wheat phenophases and yield to climate change were further explored regionally. Our results revealed a general yield reduction of spring wheat in response to the pronounced climate warming from 1981 to 2014, with an average of 3564 kg·ha-1. The regional differences in yields were significant. The maximum potential yield of spring wheat was found in the western region. However, the minimum potential yield was found in the middle region. The air temperature and soil surface temperature were the optimum climatic factors that affected the key phenophases of spring wheat in Inner Mongolia. The influence of the average maximum temperature on the key phenophases of spring wheat was greater than the average minimum temperature, followed by the relative humidity and solar radiation. The most insensitive climatic factors were precipitation, wind speed and reference crop evapotranspiration. As for the yield of spring wheat, temperature, solar radiation and air relative humidity were major meteorological factors that affected in the eastern and western Inner Mongolia. Furthermore, the effect of the average minimum temperature on yield was greater than that of the average maximum temperature. The increase of temperature in the western and middle regions would reduce the spring wheat yield, while in the eastern region due to the rising temperature, the spring wheat yield increased. The increase of solar radiation in the eastern and central regions would increase the yield of spring wheat. The increased air relative humidity would make the western spring wheat yield increased and the eastern spring wheat yield decreased. Finally, the models describing combined effects of these dominant climatic factors on the maturity and yield in different regions of Inner Mongolia were used to establish geographical differences. Our findings have important implications for improving climate change impact studies and for local agricultural production to cope with ongoing climate change. PMID:29099842

Assessing the combined effects of climatic factors on spring wheat phenophase and grain yield in Inner Mongolia, China.

PubMed

Zhao, Junfang; Pu, Feiyu; Li, Yunpeng; Xu, Jingwen; Li, Ning; Zhang, Yi; Guo, Jianping; Pan, Zhihua

2017-01-01

Understanding the regional relationships between climate change and crop production will benefit strategic decisions for future agricultural adaptation in China. In this study, the combined effects of climatic factors on spring wheat phenophase and grain yield over the past three decades in Inner Mongolia, China, were explored based on the daily climate variables from 1981-2014 and detailed observed data of spring wheat from 1981-2014. Inner Mongolia was divided into three different climate type regions, the eastern, central and western regions. The data were gathered from 10 representative agricultural meteorological experimental stations in Inner Mongolia and analysed with the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) model. First, the performance of the APSIM model in the spring wheat planting areas of Inner Mongolia was tested. Then, the key climatic factors limiting the phenophases and yield of spring wheat were identified. Finally, the responses of spring wheat phenophases and yield to climate change were further explored regionally. Our results revealed a general yield reduction of spring wheat in response to the pronounced climate warming from 1981 to 2014, with an average of 3564 kg·ha-1. The regional differences in yields were significant. The maximum potential yield of spring wheat was found in the western region. However, the minimum potential yield was found in the middle region. The air temperature and soil surface temperature were the optimum climatic factors that affected the key phenophases of spring wheat in Inner Mongolia. The influence of the average maximum temperature on the key phenophases of spring wheat was greater than the average minimum temperature, followed by the relative humidity and solar radiation. The most insensitive climatic factors were precipitation, wind speed and reference crop evapotranspiration. As for the yield of spring wheat, temperature, solar radiation and air relative humidity were major meteorological factors that affected in the eastern and western Inner Mongolia. Furthermore, the effect of the average minimum temperature on yield was greater than that of the average maximum temperature. The increase of temperature in the western and middle regions would reduce the spring wheat yield, while in the eastern region due to the rising temperature, the spring wheat yield increased. The increase of solar radiation in the eastern and central regions would increase the yield of spring wheat. The increased air relative humidity would make the western spring wheat yield increased and the eastern spring wheat yield decreased. Finally, the models describing combined effects of these dominant climatic factors on the maturity and yield in different regions of Inner Mongolia were used to establish geographical differences. Our findings have important implications for improving climate change impact studies and for local agricultural production to cope with ongoing climate change.

Reassessment of urbanization effect on surface air temperature trends at an urban station of North China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bian, Tao; Ren, Guoyu

2017-11-01

Based on a homogenized data set of monthly mean temperature, minimum temperature, and maximum temperature at Shijiazhuang City Meteorological Station (Shijiazhuang station) and four rural meteorological stations selected applying a more sophisticated methodology, we reanalyzed the urbanization effects on annual, seasonal, and monthly mean surface air temperature (SAT) trends for updated time period 1960-2012 at the typical urban station in North China. The results showed that (1) urbanization effects on the long-term trends of annual mean SAT, minimum SAT, and diurnal temperature range (DTR) in the last 53 years reached 0.25, 0.47, and - 0.50 °C/decade, respectively, all statistically significant at the 0.001 confidence level, with the contributions from urbanization effects to the overall long-term trends reaching 67.8, 78.6, and 100%, respectively; (2) the urbanization effects on the trends of seasonal mean SAT, minimum SAT, and DTR were also large and statistically highly significant. Except for November and December, the urbanization effects on monthly mean SAT, minimum SAT, and DTR were also all statistically significant at the 0.05 confidence level; and (3) the annual, seasonal, and monthly mean maximum SAT series at the urban station registered a generally weaker and non-significant urbanization effect. The updated analysis evidenced that our previous work for this same urban station had underestimated the urbanization effect and its contribution to the overall changes in the SAT series. Many similar urban stations were being included in the current national and regional SAT data sets, and the results of this paper further indicated the importance and urgency for paying more attention to the urbanization bias in the monitoring and detection of global and regional SAT change based on the data sets.

Uncertainties in observations and climate projections for the North East India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soraisam, Bidyabati; Karumuri, Ashok; D. S., Pai

2018-01-01

The Northeast-India has undergone many changes in climatic-vegetation related issues in the last few decades due to increased human activities. However, lack of observations makes it difficult to ascertain the climate change. The study involves the mean, seasonal cycle, trend and extreme-month analysis for summer-monsoon and winter seasons of observed climate data from Indian Meteorological Department (1° × 1°) and Aphrodite & CRU-reanalysis (both 0.5° × 0.5°), and five regional-climate-model simulations (LMDZ, MPI, GFDL, CNRM and ACCESS) data from AR5/CORDEX-South-Asia (0.5° × 0.5°). Long-term (1970-2005) observed, minimum and maximum monthly temperature and precipitation, and the corresponding CORDEX-South-Asia data for historical (1970-2005) and future-projections of RCP4.5 (2011-2060) have been analyzed for long-term trends. A large spread is found across the models in spatial distributions of various mean maximum/minimum climate statistics, though models capture a similar trend in the corresponding area-averaged seasonal cycles qualitatively. Our observational analysis broadly suggests that there is no significant trend in rainfall. Significant trends are observed in the area-averaged minimum temperature during winter. All the CORDEX-South-Asia simulations for the future project either a decreasing insignificant trend in seasonal precipitation, but increasing trend for both seasonal maximum and minimum temperature over the northeast India. The frequency of extreme monthly maximum and minimum temperature are projected to increase. It is not clear from future projections how the extreme rainfall months during JJAS may change. The results show the uncertainty exists in the CORDEX-South-Asia model projections over the region in spite of the relatively high resolution.

Behavior of Solar Cycles 23 and 24 Revealed by Microwave Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gopalswamy, N.; Yashiro, S.; Maekelae, P.; Michalek, G.; Shibasaki, K.; Hathaway, D. H.

2012-01-01

Using magnetic and microwave butterfly diagrams, we compare the behavior of solar polar regions to show that (1) the polar magnetic field and the microwave brightness temperature during solar minimum substantially diminished during the cycle 23/24 minimum compared to the 22/23 minimum. (2) The polar microwave brightness temperature (Tb) seems to be a good proxy for the underlying magnetic field strength (B). The analysis indicates a relationship, B = 0.0067Tb - 70, where B is in G and Tb in K. (3) Both the brightness temperature and the magnetic field strength show north-south asymmetry most of the time except for a short period during the maximum phase. (4) The rush-to-the-pole phenomenon observed in the prominence eruption (PE) activity seems to be complete in the northern hemisphere as of 2012 March. (5) The decline of the microwave brightness temperature in the north polar region to the quiet-Sun levels and the sustained PE activity poleward of 60degN suggest that solar maximum conditions have arrived at the northern hemisphere. The southern hemisphere continues to exhibit conditions corresponding to the rise phase of solar cycle 24. Key words: Sun: chromosphere Sun: coronal mass ejections (CMEs) Sun: filaments, prominences Sun: photosphere Sun: radio radiation Sun: surface magnetism

Miscanthus Establishment and Overwintering in the Midwest USA: A Regional Modeling Study of Crop Residue Management on Critical Minimum Soil Temperatures

PubMed Central

Kucharik, Christopher J.; VanLoocke, Andy; Lenters, John D.; Motew, Melissa M.

2013-01-01

Miscanthus is an intriguing cellulosic bioenergy feedstock because its aboveground productivity is high for low amounts of agrochemical inputs, but soil temperatures below −3.5°C could threaten successful cultivation in temperate regions. We used a combination of observed soil temperatures and the Agro-IBIS model to investigate how strategic residue management could reduce the risk of rhizome threatening soil temperatures. This objective was addressed using a historical (1978–2007) reconstruction of extreme minimum 10 cm soil temperatures experienced across the Midwest US and model sensitivity studies that quantified the impact of crop residue on soil temperatures. At observation sites and for simulations that had bare soil, two critical soil temperature thresholds (50% rhizome winterkill at −3.5°C and −6.0°C for different Miscanthus genotypes) were reached at rhizome planting depth (10 cm) over large geographic areas. The coldest average annual extreme 10 cm soil temperatures were between −8°C to −11°C across North Dakota, South Dakota, and Minnesota. Large portions of the region experienced 10 cm soil temperatures below −3.5°C in 75% or greater for all years, and portions of North and South Dakota, Minnesota, and Wisconsin experienced soil temperatures below −6.0°C in 50–60% of all years. For simulated management options that established varied thicknesses (1–5 cm) of miscanthus straw following harvest, extreme minimum soil temperatures increased by 2.5°C to 6°C compared to bare soil, with the greatest warming associated with thicker residue layers. While the likelihood of 10 cm soil temperatures reaching −3.5°C was greatly reduced with 2–5 cm of surface residue, portions of the Dakotas, Nebraska, Minnesota, and Wisconsin still experienced temperatures colder than −3.5°C in 50–80% of all years. Nonetheless, strategic residue management could help increase the likelihood of overwintering of miscanthus rhizomes in the first few years after establishment, although low productivity and biomass availability during these early stages could hamper such efforts. PMID:23844244

Regional climate impacts of a possible future grand solar minimum.

PubMed

Ineson, Sarah; Maycock, Amanda C; Gray, Lesley J; Scaife, Adam A; Dunstone, Nick J; Harder, Jerald W; Knight, Jeff R; Lockwood, Mike; Manners, James C; Wood, Richard A

2015-06-23

Any reduction in global mean near-surface temperature due to a future decline in solar activity is likely to be a small fraction of projected anthropogenic warming. However, variability in ultraviolet solar irradiance is linked to modulation of the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations, suggesting the potential for larger regional surface climate effects. Here, we explore possible impacts through two experiments designed to bracket uncertainty in ultraviolet irradiance in a scenario in which future solar activity decreases to Maunder Minimum-like conditions by 2050. Both experiments show regional structure in the wintertime response, resembling the North Atlantic Oscillation, with enhanced relative cooling over northern Eurasia and the eastern United States. For a high-end decline in solar ultraviolet irradiance, the impact on winter northern European surface temperatures over the late twenty-first century could be a significant fraction of the difference in climate change between plausible AR5 scenarios of greenhouse gas concentrations.

The Effects of Data Gaps on the Calculated Monthly Mean Maximum and Minimum Temperatures in the Continental United States: A Spatial and Temporal Study.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stooksbury, David E.; Idso, Craig D.; Hubbard, Kenneth G.

1999-05-01

Gaps in otherwise regularly scheduled observations are often referred to as missing data. This paper explores the spatial and temporal impacts that data gaps in the recorded daily maximum and minimum temperatures have on the calculated monthly mean maximum and minimum temperatures. For this analysis 138 climate stations from the United States Historical Climatology Network Daily Temperature and Precipitation Data set were selected. The selected stations had no missing maximum or minimum temperature values during the period 1951-80. The monthly mean maximum and minimum temperatures were calculated for each station for each month. For each month 1-10 consecutive days of data from each station were randomly removed. This was performed 30 times for each simulated gap period. The spatial and temporal impact of the 1-10-day data gaps were compared. The influence of data gaps is most pronounced in the continental regions during the winter and least pronounced in the southeast during the summer. In the north central plains, 10-day data gaps during January produce a standard deviation value greater than 2°C about the `true' mean. In the southeast, 10-day data gaps in July produce a standard deviation value less than 0.5°C about the mean. The results of this study will be of value in climate variability and climate trend research as well as climate assessment and impact studies.

Herbarium specimens, photographs, and field observations show Philadelphia area plants are responding to climate change.

PubMed

Panchen, Zoe A; Primack, Richard B; Anisko, Tomasz; Lyons, Robert E

2012-04-01

The global climate is changing rapidly and is expected to continue changing in coming decades. Studying changes in plant flowering times during a historical period of warming temperatures gives us a way to examine the impacts of climate change and allows us to predict further changes in coming decades. The Greater Philadelphia region has a long and rich history of botanical study and documentation, with abundant herbarium specimens, field observations, and botanical photographs from the mid-1800s onward. These extensive records also provide an opportunity to validate methodologies employed by other climate change researchers at a different biogeographical area and with a different group of species. Data for 2539 flowering records from 1840 to 2010 were assessed to examine changes in flowering response over time and in relation to monthly minimum temperatures of 28 Piedmont species native to the Greater Philadelphia region. Regression analysis of the date of flowering with year or with temperature showed that, on average, the Greater Philadelphia species studied are flowering 16 d earlier over the 170-yr period and 2.7 d earlier per 1°C rise in monthly minimum temperature. Of the species studied, woody plants with short flowering duration are the best indicators of a warming climate. For monthly minimum temperatures, temperatures 1 or 2 mo prior to flowering are most significantly correlated with flowering time. Studies combining herbarium specimens, photographs, and field observations are an effective method for detecting the effects of climate change on flowering times.

THE CHROMOSPHERIC SOLAR MILLIMETER-WAVE CAVITY ORIGINATES IN THE TEMPERATURE MINIMUM REGION

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

De la Luz, Victor; Raulin, Jean-Pierre; Lara, Alejandro

2013-01-10

We present a detailed theoretical analysis of the local radio emission at the lower part of the solar atmosphere. To accomplish this, we have used a numerical code to simulate the emission and transport of high-frequency electromagnetic waves from 2 GHz up to 10 THz. As initial conditions, we used VALC, SEL05, and C7 solar chromospheric models. In this way, the generated synthetic spectra allow us to study the local emission and absorption processes with high resolution in both altitude and frequency. Associated with the temperature minimum predicted by these models, we found that the local optical depth at millimetermore » wavelengths remains constant, producing an optically thin layer that is surrounded by two layers of high local emission. We call this structure the Chromospheric Solar Millimeter-wave Cavity (CSMC). The temperature profile, which features temperature minimum layers and a subsequent temperature rise, produces the CSMC phenomenon. The CSMC shows the complexity of the relation between the theoretical temperature profile and the observed brightness temperature and may help us to understand the dispersion of the observed brightness temperature in the millimeter wavelength range.« less

24/7 Solar Minimum Polar Cap and Auroral Ion Temperature Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sojka, Jan J.; Nicolls, Michael; van Eyken, Anthony; Heinselman, Craig; Bilitza, Dieter

2011-01-01

During the International Polar Year (IPY) two Incoherent Scatter Radars (ISRs) achieved close to 24/7 continuous observations. This presentation describes their data sets and specifically how they can provide the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) a fiduciary E- and F-region ionosphere description for solar minimum conditions in both the auroral and polar cap regions. The ionospheric description being electron density, ion temperature and electron temperature profiles from as low as 90 km extending to several scale heights above the F-layer peak. The auroral location is Poker Flat in Alaska at 65.1 N latitude, 212.5 E longitude where the NSF s new Poker Flat Incoherent Scatter Radar (PFISR) is located. This location during solar minimum conditions is in the auroral region for most of the day but is at midlatitudes, equator ward of the cusp, for about 4-8 h per day dependent upon geomagnetic activity. In contrast the polar location is Svalbard, at 78.2 N latitude, 16.0 E longitude where the EISCAT Svalbard Radar (ESR) is located. For most of the day the ESR is in the Northern Polar Cap with a noon sector passage often through the dayside cusp. Of unique relevance to IRI is that these extended observations have enabled the ionospheric morphology to be distinguished between quiet and disturbed geomagnetic conditions. During the IPY year, 1 March 2007 - 29 February 2008, about 50 solar wind Corotating Interaction Regions (CIRs) impacted geospace. Each CIR has a two to five day geomagnetic disturbance that is observed in the ESR and PFISR observations. Hence, this data set also enables the quiet-background ionospheric climatology to be established as a function of season and local time. These two separate climatologies for the ion temperature at an altitude of 300 km are presented and compared with IRI ion temperatures. The IRI ion temperatures are about 200-300 K hotter than the observed values. However, the MSIS neutral temperature at 300 km compares favorably with the quiet-background in temperature, both in magnitude and climatology.

Calculation of temperature distribution and rheological properties of the lithosphere along geotransect in the Red Sea region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dérerová, Jana; Kohút, Igor; Radwan, Anwar H.; Bielik, Miroslav

2017-12-01

The temperature model of the lithosphere along profile passing through the Red Sea region has been derived using 2D integrated geophysical modelling method. Using the extrapolation of failure criteria, lithology and calculated temperature distribution, we have constructed the rheological model of the lithosphere in the area. We have calculated the strength distribution in the lithosphere and constructed the strength envelopes for both compressional and extensional regimes. The obtained results indicate that the strength steadily decreases from the Western desert through the Eastern desert towards the Red Sea where it reaches its minimum for both compressional and extensional regime. Maximum strength can be observed in the Western desert where the largest strength reaches values of about 250-300 MPa within the upper crust on the boundary between upper and lower crust. In the Eastern desert we observe slightly decreased strength with max values about 200-250 MPa within upper crust within 15 km with compression being dominant. These results suggest mostly rigid deformation in the region or Western and Eastern desert. In the Red Sea, the strength rapidly decreases to its minimum suggesting ductile processes as a result of higher temperatures.

Time trends in minimum mortality temperatures in Castile-La Mancha (Central Spain): 1975-2003

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miron, Isidro J.; Criado-Alvarez, Juan José; Diaz, Julio; Linares, Cristina; Mayoral, Sheila; Montero, Juan Carlos

2008-03-01

The relationship between air temperature and human mortality is described as non-linear, with mortality tending to rise in response to increasingly hot or cold ambient temperatures from a given minimum mortality or optimal comfort temperature, which varies from some areas to others according to their climatic and socio-demographic characteristics. Changes in these characteristics within any specific region could modify this relationship. This study sought to examine the time trend in the maximum temperature of minimum organic-cause mortality in Castile-La Mancha, from 1975 to 2003. The analysis was performed by using daily series of maximum temperatures and organic-cause mortality rates grouped into three decades (1975-1984, 1985-1994, 1995-2003) to compare confidence intervals ( p < 0.05) obtained by estimating the 10-yearly mortality rates corresponding to the maximum temperatures of minimum mortality calculated for each decade. Temporal variations in the effects of cold and heat on mortality were ascertained by means of ARIMA models (Box-Jenkins) and cross-correlation functions (CCF) at seven lags. We observed a significant decrease in comfort temperature (from 34.2°C to 27.8°C) between the first two decades in the Province of Toledo, along with a growing number of significant lags in the summer CFF (1, 3 and 5, respectively). The fall in comfort temperature is attributable to the increase in the effects of heat on mortality, due, in all likelihood, to the percentage increase in the elderly population.

Unravelling Diurnal Asymmetry of Surface Temperature in Different Climate Zones.

PubMed

Vinnarasi, R; Dhanya, C T; Chakravorty, Aniket; AghaKouchak, Amir

2017-08-04

Understanding the evolution of Diurnal Temperature Range (DTR), which has contradicting global and regional trends, is crucial because it influences environmental and human health. Here, we analyse the regional evolution of DTR trend over different climatic zones in India using a non-stationary approach known as the Multidimensional Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (MEEMD) method, to explore the generalized influence of regional climate on DTR, if any. We report a 0.36 °C increase in overall mean of DTR till 1980, however, the rate has declined since then. Further, arid deserts and warm-temperate grasslands exhibit negative DTR trends, while the west coast and sub-tropical forest in the north-east show positive trends. This transition predominantly begins with a 0.5 °C increase from the west coast and spreads with an increase of 0.25 °C per decade. These changes are more pronounced during winter and post-monsoon, especially in the arid desert and warm-temperate grasslands, the DTR decreased up to 2 °C, where the rate of increase in minimum temperature is higher than the maximum temperature. We conclude that both maximum and minimum temperature increase in response to the global climate change, however, their rates of increase are highly local and depend on the underlying climatic zone.

Spatiotemporal Evaluation of Reanalysis and In-situ Surface Air Temperature over Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tesfaye, T.

2017-12-01

Tewodros Woldemariam Tesfaye*1, C.T. Dhanya 2,and A.K. Gosain3 1Research Scholar, Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, New Delhi-110016, India 2Assistant Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, New Delhi-110016, India 3 Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, New Delhi-110016, India, *e-mail: tewodros2002@gmail.com Abstract: Water resources management and modelling studies are often constrained by the scarcity of observed data, especially of the two major variables i.e., precipitation and temperature. Modellers, hence, rely on reanalysis datasets as a substitute; though its performance heavily vary depending on the data availability and regional characteristics. The present study aims at examining the ability of frequently used reanalysis datasets in capturing the spatiotemporal characteristics of maximum and minimum surface temperatures over Ethiopia and to highlight the biases, if any, in these over Ethiopian region. We considered ERA-Interim, NCEP 2, MERRA and CFSR reanalysis datasets and compared these with temperature observations from 15 synoptic stations spread over Ethiopia. In addition to the long term averages and annual cycle, a critical comparison of various extreme indices such as diurnal temperature range, warm days, warm nights, cool days, cool nights, summer days and tropical nights are also undertaken. Our results indicate that, the performance of CFSR followed by NCEP 2 is better in capturing majority of the aspects. ERA-Interim suffers a huge additive bias in the simulation of various aspects of minimum temperature in all the stations considered; while its performance is better for maximum temperature. The inferior performance of ERA-Interim is noted to be only because of the difficulty in simulating minimum temperature. Key words: ERA Interim; NCEP Reanalysis; MERRA; CFSR; Diurnal temperature range; reanalysis performance.

Warming and wetting signals emerging from analysis of changes in climate extreme indices over South America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skansi, María de los Milagros; Brunet, Manola; Sigró, Javier; Aguilar, Enric; Arevalo Groening, Juan Andrés; Bentancur, Oscar J.; Castellón Geier, Yaruska Rosa; Correa Amaya, Ruth Leonor; Jácome, Homero; Malheiros Ramos, Andrea; Oria Rojas, Clara; Pasten, Alejandro Max; Sallons Mitro, Sukarni; Villaroel Jiménez, Claudia; Martínez, Rodney; Alexander, Lisa V.; Jones, P. D.

2013-01-01

Here we show and discuss the results of an assessment of changes in both area-averaged and station-based climate extreme indices over South America (SA) for the 1950-2010 and 1969-2009 periods using high-quality daily maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation series. A weeklong regional workshop in Guayaquil (Ecuador) provided the opportunity to extend the current picture of changes in climate extreme indices over SA. Our results provide evidence of warming and wetting across the whole SA since the mid-20th century onwards. Nighttime (minimum) temperature indices show the largest rates of warming (e.g. for tropical nights, cold and warm nights), while daytime (maximum) temperature indices also point to warming (e.g. for cold days, summer days, the annual lowest daytime temperature), but at lower rates than for minimums. Both tails of night-time temperatures have warmed by a similar magnitude, with cold days (the annual lowest nighttime and daytime temperatures) seeing reductions (increases). Trends are strong and moderate (moderate to weak) for regional-averaged (local) indices, most of them pointing to a less cold SA during the day and warmer night-time temperatures. Regionally-averaged precipitation indices show clear wetting and a signature of intensified heavy rain events over the eastern part of the continent. The annual amounts of rainfall are rising strongly over south-east SA (26.41 mm/decade) and Amazonia (16.09 mm/decade), but north-east Brazil and the western part of SA have experienced non-significant decreases. Very wet and extremely days, the annual maximum 5-day and 1-day precipitation show the largest upward trends, indicating an intensified rainfall signal for SA, particularly over Amazonia and south-east SA. Local trends for precipitation extreme indices are in general less coherent spatially, but with more general spatially coherent upward trends in extremely wet days over all SA.

Observed changes of temperature extremes during 1960-2005 in China: natural or human-induced variations?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Qiang; Li, Jianfeng; David Chen, Yongqin; Chen, Xiaohong

2011-12-01

The purpose of this study was to statistically examine changes of surface air temperature in time and space and to analyze two factors potentially influencing air temperature changes in China, i.e., urbanization and net solar radiation. Trends within the temperature series were detected by using Mann-Kendall trend test technique. The scientific problem this study expected to address was that what could be the role of human activities in the changes of temperature extremes. Other influencing factors such as net solar radiation were also discussed. The results of this study indicated that: (1) increasing temperature was observed mainly in the northeast and northwest China; (2) different behaviors were identified in the changes of maximum and minimum temperature respectively. Maximum temperature seemed to be more influenced by urbanization, which could be due to increasing urban albedo, aerosol, and air pollutions in the urbanized areas. Minimum temperature was subject to influences of variations of net solar radiation; (3) not significant increasing and even decreasing temperature extremes in the Yangtze River basin and the regions south to the Yangtze River basin could be the consequences of higher relative humidity as a result of increasing precipitation; (4) the entire China was dominated by increasing minimum temperature. Thus, we can say that the warming process of China was reflected mainly by increasing minimum temperature. In addition, consistently increasing temperature was found in the upper reaches of the Yellow River basin, the Yangtze River basin, which have the potential to enhance the melting of permafrost in these areas. This may trigger new ecological problems and raise new challenges for the river basin scale water resource management.

Future changes over the Himalayas: Maximum and minimum temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dimri, A. P.; Kumar, D.; Choudhary, A.; Maharana, P.

2018-03-01

An assessment of the projection of minimum and maximum air temperature over the Indian Himalayan region (IHR) from the COordinated Regional Climate Downscaling EXperiment- South Asia (hereafter, CORDEX-SA) regional climate model (RCM) experiments have been carried out under two different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. The major aim of this study is to assess the probable future changes in the minimum and maximum climatology and its long-term trend under different RCPs along with the elevation dependent warming over the IHR. A number of statistical analysis such as changes in mean climatology, long-term spatial trend and probability distribution function are carried out to detect the signals of changes in climate. The study also tries to quantify the uncertainties associated with different model experiments and their ensemble in space, time and for different seasons. The model experiments and their ensemble show prominent cold bias over Himalayas for present climate. However, statistically significant higher warming rate (0.23-0.52 °C/decade) for both minimum and maximum air temperature (Tmin and Tmax) is observed for all the seasons under both RCPs. The rate of warming intensifies with the increase in the radiative forcing under a range of greenhouse gas scenarios starting from RCP4.5 to RCP8.5. In addition to this, a wide range of spatial variability and disagreements in the magnitude of trend between different models describes the uncertainty associated with the model projections and scenarios. The projected rate of increase of Tmin may destabilize the snow formation at the higher altitudes in the northern and western parts of Himalayan region, while rising trend of Tmax over southern flank may effectively melt more snow cover. Such combined effect of rising trend of Tmin and Tmax may pose a potential threat to the glacial deposits. The overall trend of Diurnal temperature range (DTR) portrays increasing trend across entire area with highest magnitude under RCP8.5. This higher rate of increase is imparted from the predominant rise of Tmax as compared to Tmin.

BOREAS AES READAC Surface Meteorological Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Atkinson, G. Barrie; Funk, Barry; Hall, Forrest G. (Editor); Knapp, David E. (Editor)

2000-01-01

Canadian AES personnel collected and processed data related to surface atmospheric meteorological conditions over the BOREAS region. This data set contains 15-minute meteorological data from one READAC meteorology station in Hudson Bay, Saskatchewan. Parameters include day, time, type of report, sky condition, visibility, mean sea level pressure, temperature, dewpoint, wind, altimeter, opacity, minimum and maximum visibility, station pressure, minimum and maximum air temperature, a wind group, precipitation, and precipitation in the last hour. The data were collected non-continuously from 24-May-1994 to 20-Sep-1994. The data are provided in tabular ASCII files, and are classified as AFM-Staff data.

Anisotropic patterns of liver cancer prevalence in Guangxi in Southwest China: is local climate a contributing factor?

PubMed

Deng, Wei; Long, Long; Tang, Xian-Yan; Huang, Tian-Ren; Li, Ji-Lin; Rong, Min-Hua; Li, Ke-Zhi; Liu, Hai-Zhou

2015-01-01

Geographic information system (GIS) technology has useful applications for epidemiology, enabling the detection of spatial patterns of disease dispersion and locating geographic areas at increased risk. In this study, we applied GIS technology to characterize the spatial pattern of mortality due to liver cancer in the autonomous region of Guangxi Zhuang in southwest China. A database with liver cancer mortality data for 1971-1973, 1990-1992, and 2004-2005, including geographic locations and climate conditions, was constructed, and the appropriate associations were investigated. It was found that the regions with the highest mortality rates were central Guangxi with Guigang City at the center, and southwest Guangxi centered in Fusui County. Regions with the lowest mortality rates were eastern Guangxi with Pingnan County at the center, and northern Guangxi centered in Sanjiang and Rongshui counties. Regarding climate conditions, in the 1990s the mortality rate of liver cancer positively correlated with average temperature and average minimum temperature, and negatively correlated with average precipitation. In 2004 through 2005, mortality due to liver cancer positively correlated with the average minimum temperature. Regions of high mortality had lower average humidity and higher average barometric pressure than did regions of low mortality. Our results provide information to benefit development of a regional liver cancer prevention program in Guangxi, and provide important information and a reference for exploring causes of liver cancer.

Daily temperature and precipitation extremes in the Baltic Sea region derived from the BaltAn65+ reanalysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toll, Velle; Post, Piia

2018-04-01

Daily 2-m temperature and precipitation extremes in the Baltic Sea region for the time period of 1965-2005 is studied based on data from the BaltAn65 + high resolution atmospheric reanalysis. Moreover, the ability of regional reanalysis to capture extremes is analysed by comparing the reanalysis data to gridded observations. The shortcomings in the simulation of the minimum temperatures over the northern part of the region and in the simulation of the extreme precipitation over the Scandinavian mountains in the BaltAn65+ reanalysis data are detected and analysed. Temporal trends in the temperature and precipitation extremes in the Baltic Sea region, with the largest increases in temperature and precipitation in winter, are detected based on both gridded observations and the BaltAn65+ reanalysis data. However, the reanalysis is not able to capture all of the regional trends in the extremes in the observations due to the shortcomings in the simulation of the extremes.

Autumn-winter minimum temperature changes in the southern Sikhote-Alin mountain range of northeastern Asia since 1529 AD

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ukhvatkina, Olga N.; Omelko, Alexander M.; Zhmerenetsky, Alexander A.; Petrenko, Tatyana Y.

2018-01-01

The aim of our research was to reconstruct climatic parameters (for the first time for the Sikhote-Alin mountain range) and to compare them with global climate fluctuations. As a result, we have found that one of the most important limiting factors for the study area is the minimum temperatures of the previous autumn-winter season (August-December), and this finding perfectly conforms to that in other territories. We reconstructed the previous August-December minimum temperature for 485 years, from 1529 to 2014. We found 12 cold periods (1535-1540, 1550-1555, 1643-1649, 1659-1667, 1675-1689, 1722-1735, 1791-1803, 1807-1818, 1822-1827, 1836-1852, 1868-1887, 1911-1925) and seven warm periods (1560-1585, 1600-1610, 1614-1618, 1738-1743, 1756-1759, 1776-1781, 1944-2014). These periods correlate well with reconstructed data for the Northern Hemisphere and the neighboring territories of China and Japan. Our reconstruction has 3-, 9-, 20-, and 200-year periods, which may be in line with high-frequency fluctuations in El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the short-term solar cycle, Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) fluctuations, and the 200-year solar activity cycle, respectively. We suppose that the temperature of the North Pacific, expressed by the PDO may make a major contribution to regional climate variations. We also assume that the regional climatic response to solar activity becomes apparent in the temperature changes in the northern part of Pacific Ocean and corresponds to cold periods during the solar minimum. These comparisons show that our climatic reconstruction based on tree ring chronology for this area may potentially provide a proxy record for long-term, large-scale past temperature patterns for northeastern Asia. The reconstruction reflects the global traits and local variations in the climatic processes of the southern territory of the Russian Far East for more than the past 450 years.

Geographical and Geomorphological Effects on Air Temperatures in the Columbia Basin's Signature Vineyards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olson, L.; Pogue, K. R.; Bader, N.

2012-12-01

The Columbia Basin of Washington and Oregon is one of the most productive grape-growing areas in the United States. Wines produced in this region are influenced by their terroir - the amalgamation of physical and cultural elements that influence grapes grown at a particular vineyard site. Of the physical factors, climate, and in particular air temperature, has been recognized as a primary influence on viticulture. Air temperature directly affects ripening in the grapes. Proper fruit ripening, which requires precise and balanced levels of acid and sugar, and the accumulation of pigment in the grape skin, directly correlates with the quality of wine produced. Many features control air temperature within a particular vineyard. Elevation, latitude, slope, and aspect all converge to form complex relationships with air temperatures; however, the relative degree to which these attributes affect temperatures varies between regions and is not well understood. This study examines the influence of geography and geomorphology on air temperatures within the American Viticultural Areas (AVAs) of the Columbia Basin in eastern Washington and Oregon. The premier vineyards within each AVA, which have been recognized for producing high-quality wine, were equipped with air temperature monitoring stations that collected hourly temperature measurements. A variety of temperature statistics were calculated, including daily average, maximum, and minimum temperatures. From these values, average diurnal variation and growing degree-days (10°C) were calculated. A variety of other statistics were computed, including date of first and last frost and time spent below a minimum temperature threshold. These parameters were compared to the vineyard's elevation, latitude, slope, aspect, and local topography using GPS, ArcCatalog, and GIS in an attempt to determine their relative influences on air temperatures. From these statistics, it was possible to delineate two trends of temperature variation controlled by elevation. In some AVAs, such as Walla Walla Valley and Red Mountain, average air temperatures increased with elevation because of the effect of cold air pooling on valley floors. In other AVAs, such as Horse Heaven Hills, Lake Chelan and Columbia Gorge, average temperatures decreased with elevation due to the moderating influences of the Columbia River and Lake Chelan. Other temperature statistics, including average diurnal range and maximum and minimum temperature, were influenced by relative topography, including local topography and slope. Vineyards with flat slopes that had low elevations relative to their surroundings had larger diurnal variations and lower maximum and minimum temperatures than vineyards with steeper slopes that were high relative to their surroundings.

25 CFR 256.2 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... standards for the region; (ii) The heating system must have the capacity to maintain a minimum temperature... economical access to utilities and must be easy to enter and leave; and (ix) Aesthetics and access to school...

Recent climate trends and implications for water resources in the Catskill Mountain region, New York, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burns, Douglas A.; Klaus, Julian; McHale, Michael R.

2007-01-01

Climate scientists have concluded that the earth’s surface air temperature warmed by 0.6 °C during the 20th century, and that warming induced by increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases is likely to continue in the 21st century, accompanied by changes in the hydrologic cycle. Climate change has important implications in the Catskill region of southeastern New York State, because the region is a source of water supply for New York City. We used the non-parametric Mann–Kendall test to evaluate annual, monthly, and multi-month trends in air temperature, precipitation amount, stream runoff, and potential evapotranspiration (PET) in the region during 1952–2005 based on data from 9 temperature sites, 12 precipitation sites, and 8 stream gages. A general pattern of warming temperatures and increased precipitation, runoff, and PET is evident in the region. Regional annual mean air temperature increased significantly by 0.6 °C per 50 years during the period; the greatest increases and largest number of significant upward trends were in daily minimum air temperature. Daily maximum air temperature showed the greatest increase during February through April, whereas minimum air temperature showed the greatest increase during May through September. Regional mean precipitation increased significantly by 136 mm per 50 years, nearly double that of the regional mean increase in runoff, which was not significant. Regional mean PET increased significantly by 19 mm per 50 years, about one-seventh that of the increase in precipitation amount, and broadly consistent with increased runoff during 1952–2005, despite the lack of significance in the mean regional runoff trend. Peak snowmelt as approximated by the winter–spring center of volume of stream runoff generally shifted from early April at the beginning of the record to late March at the end of the record, consistent with a decreasing trend in April runoff and an increasing trend in maximum March air temperature. This change indicates an increased supply of water to reservoirs earlier in the year. Additionally, the supply of water to reservoirs at the beginning of winter is greater as indicated by the timing of the greatest increases in precipitation and runoff—both occurred during summer and fall. The future balance between changes in air temperature and changes in the timing and amount of precipitation in the region will have important implications for the available water supply in the region.

Modeled intermittency risk for small streams in the Upper Colorado River Basin under climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reynolds, Lindsay V.; Shafroth, Patrick B.; Poff, N. LeRoy

2015-01-01

Longer, drier summers projected for arid and semi-arid regions of western North America under climate change are likely to have enormous consequences for water resources and river-dependent ecosystems. Many climate change scenarios for this region involve decreases in mean annual streamflow, late summer precipitation and late-summer streamflow in the coming decades. Intermittent streams are already common in this region, and it is likely that minimum flows will decrease and some perennial streams will shift to intermittent flow under climate-driven changes in timing and magnitude of precipitation and runoff, combined with increases in temperature. To understand current intermittency among streams and analyze the potential for streams to shift from perennial to intermittent under a warmer climate, we analyzed historic flow records from streams in the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB). Approximately two-thirds of 115 gaged stream reaches included in our analysis are currently perennial and the rest have some degree of intermittency. Dry years with combinations of high temperatures and low precipitation were associated with more zero-flow days. Mean annual flow was positively related to minimum flows, suggesting that potential future declines in mean annual flows will correspond with declines in minimum flows. The most important landscape variables for predicting low flow metrics were precipitation, percent snow, potential evapotranspiration, soils, and drainage area. Perennial streams in the UCRB that have high minimum-flow variability and low mean flows are likely to be most susceptible to increasing streamflow intermittency in the future.

Subfreezing activity of microorganisms and the potential habitability of Mars' polar regions.

PubMed

Jakosky, Bruce M; Nealson, Kenneth H; Bakermans, Corien; Ley, Ruth E; Mellon, Michael T

2003-01-01

The availability of water-ice at the surface in the Mars polar cap and within the top meter of the high-latitude regolith raises the question of whether liquid water can exist there under some circumstances and possibly support the existence of biota. We examine the minimum temperatures at which liquid water can exist at ice grain-dust grain and ice grain-ice grain contacts, the minimum subfreezing temperatures at which terrestrial organisms can grow or multiply, and the maximum temperatures that can occur in martian high-latitude and polar regions, to see if there is overlap. Liquid water can exist at grain contacts above about -20 degrees C. Measurements of growth in organisms isolated from Siberian permafrost indicate growth at -10 degrees C and metabolism at -20 degrees C. Mars polar and high-latitude temperatures rise above -20 degrees C at obliquities greater than ~40 degrees, and under some conditions rise above 0 degrees C. Thus, the environment in the Mars polar regions has overlapped habitable conditions within relatively recent epochs, and Mars appears to be on the edge of being habitable at present. The easy accessibility of the polar surface layer relative to the deep subsurface make these viable locations to search for evidence of life.

Trends and variability of daily temperature and precipitation extremes during 1960-2012 in the Yangtze River Basin, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guan, Yinghui

2017-04-01

The variability of surface air temperature and precipitation extremes has been the focus of attention during the past several decades, and may exert a great influence on the global hydrologic cycle and energy balance through thermal forcing. Using daily minimum (TN), maximum temperature (TX) and precipitation　from 143 meteorological stations in the Yangtze River Basin (YRB), a suite of extreme climate indices recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices, which has rarely been applied in this region, were computed and analyzed during 1960-2012. The results show widespread significant changes in all temperature indices associated with warming in the YRB during 1960-2012. On the whole, cold-related indices, i.e., cold nights, cold days, frost days, icing days and cold spell duration index significantly decreased by -3.45, -1.03, -3.04, -0.42 and -1.6 days/decade, respectively. In contrast, warm-related indices such as warm nights, warm days, summer days, tropical nights and warm spell duration index significantly increased by 2.95, 1.71, 2.16, 1.05 and 0.73 days/decade. Minimum TN, maximum TN, minimum TX and maximum TX increased significantly by 0.42, 0.18, 0.19 and 0.14 °C/decade. Because of a faster increase in minimum temperature than maximum temperature, the diurnal temperature range (DTR) exhibited a significant decreasing trend of -0.09 °C/decade for the whole YRB during 1960-2012. Geographically, stations in the eastern Tibet Plateau and northeastern YRB showed stronger trends in almost all temperature indices. Time series analysis indicated that the YRB was dominated by a general cooling trend before the mid-1980s, but a warming trend afterwards. For precipitation, simple daily intensity index, very wet day precipitation, extremely wet day precipitation, extremely heavy precipitation days, maximum 1-day precipitation, maximum 5-day precipitation and maximum consecutive dry days all increased significantly during 1960-2012. In contrast, ≥ 10 mm precipitation days and maximum consecutive wet days decreased significantly, implying that the precipitation processes in YRB were dominated by precipitation events with shorter durations. Geographically, a wetting tendency was observed in the eastern Tibet Plateau and the middle and lower YRB, while the other regions experienced precipitation deficits. The increasing precipitation was mainly due to the intensification of extreme precipitation events and the decreasing precipitation may be attributed to the decrease of ≥ 10 mm precipitation days or moderate precipitation events. In addition, the regional trends were of greater magnitudes in the middle and lower YRB, indicating more frequent extreme precipitation events in these sub-regions.

Temperature and Precipitation trends in Kashmir valley, North Western Himalayas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shafiq, Mifta Ul; Rasool, Rehana; Ahmed, Pervez; Dimri, A. P.

2018-01-01

Climate change has emerged as an important issue ever to confront mankind. This concern emerges from the fact that our day-to-day activities are leading to impacts on the Earth's atmosphere that has the potential to significantly alter the planet's shield and radiation balance. Developing countries particularly whose income is particularly derived from agricultural activities are at the forefront of bearing repercussions due to changing climate. The present study is an effort to analyze the changing trends of precipitation and temperature variables in Kashmir valley along different elevation zones in the north western part of India. As the Kashmir valley has a rich repository of glaciers with its annual share of precipitation, slight change in the temperature and precipitation regime has far reaching environmental and economic consequences. The results from Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) data of the period 1980-2014 reveals that the annual mean temperature of Kashmir valley has increased significantly. Accelerated warming has been observed during 1980-2014, with intense warming in the recent years (2001-2014). During the period 1980-2014, steeper increase, in annual mean maximum temperature than annual mean minimum temperature, has been observed. In addition, mean maximum temperature in plain regions has shown higher rate of increase when compared with mountainous areas. In case of mean minimum temperature, mountainous regions have shown higher rate of increase. Analysis of precipitation data for the same period shows a decreasing trend with mountainous regions having the highest rate of decrease which can be quite hazardous for the fragile mountain environment of the Kashmir valley housing a large number of glaciers.

Analysis and modeling of extreme temperatures in several cities in northwestern Mexico under climate change conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

García-Cueto, O. Rafael; Cavazos, M. Tereza; de Grau, Pamela; Santillán-Soto, Néstor

2014-04-01

The generalized extreme value distribution is applied in this article to model the statistical behavior of the maximum and minimum temperature distribution tails in four cities of Baja California in northwestern Mexico, using data from 1950-2010. The approach used of the maximum of annual time blocks. Temporal trends were included as covariates in the location parameter (μ), which resulted in significant improvements to the proposed models, particularly for the extreme maximum temperature values in the cities of Mexicali, Tijuana, and Tecate, and the extreme minimum temperature values in Mexicali and Ensenada. These models were used to estimate future probabilities over the next 100 years (2015-2110) for different time periods, and they were compared with changes in the extreme (P90th and P10th) percentiles of maximum and minimum temperature scenarios for a set of six general circulation models under low (RCP4.5) and high (RCP8.5) radiative forcings. By the end of the twenty-first century, the scenarios of the changes in extreme maximum summer temperature are of the same order in both the statistical model and the high radiative scenario (increases of 4-5 °C). The low radiative scenario is more conservative (increases of 2-3 °C). The winter scenario shows that minimum temperatures could be less severe; the temperature increases suggested by the probabilistic model are greater than those projected for the end of the century by the set of global models under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The likely impacts on the region are discussed.

Transient climate simulation from the Maunder Minimum to present day using prescribed changes in GHG, total/spectral solar irradiance and ozone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spangehl, Thomas; Cubasch, Ulrich; Schimanke, Semjon

A fully coupled AO-GCM including representation of the middle atmosphere is used for tran-sient simulation of climate from 1630 to 2000 AD. For better representation of changes in the UV/visible part of the solar spectrum an improved short-wave radiation scheme is implemented. The model is driven by changes in GHG concentrations, solar activity and volcanic eruptions. Solar variability is introduced via changes in total/spectral solar irradiance (TSI/SSI) and pre-scribed changes in stratospheric ozone. The secular trend in TSI is in the range of 0.1 percent increase from Maunder Minimum to present-day. Volcanic eruptions are represented via abrupt reduction in TSI. With the applied forcings the model does not simulate a clear reduction of the annual Northern Hemisphere (NH) mean near surface temperature during Maunder Minimum. By contrast the Dalton Minimum is characterized by distinct cooling and there is a significant raise of NH mean near surface temperature until the end of the 20th century. Focusing on the North Atlantic/European region the winter mean near surface temperature change pat-tern from Late Maunder Minimum (1675-1715) to present-day (1960-1990) reveals maximum warming over north-eastern Europe and cooling over the western North Atlantic with maxi-mum cooling west of Greenland. These changes can partly be explained by a shift of the NAO towards a more positive phase. The simulated changes in tropospheric circulation are discussed with special emphasize on the role of the solar forcing. Besides the stratospheric solar forcing which may affect NAO variability via downward propagation of the solar signal from the strato-sphere to the troposphere the magnitude of the secular trend in TSI might play a role. For the period from Maunder Minimum to present-day the simulation shows less near surface temper-ature increase especially over arctic regions when compared to simulations performed with the same model including the standard radiation scheme but applying larger TSI variations. The associated changes in lower tropospheric baroclinicity are more favourable for synoptic scale wave activity over the North Atlantic and might thereby contribute to strengthening of the NAO.

Innovative trend analysis of annual and seasonal air temperature and rainfall in the Yangtze River Basin, China during 1960-2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cui, Lifang; Wang, Lunche; Lai, Zhongping; Tian, Qing; Liu, Wen; Li, Jun

2017-11-01

The variation characteristics of air temperature and precipitation in the Yangtze River Basin (YRB), China during 1960-2015 were analysed using a linear regression (LR) analysis, a Mann-Kendall (MK) test with Sen's slope estimator and Sen's innovative trend analysis (ITA). The results showed that the annual maximum, minimum and mean temperature significantly increased at the rate of 0.15°C/10yr, 0.23°C/10yr and 0.19°C/10yr, respectively, over the whole study area during 1960-2015. The warming magnitudes for the above variables during 1980-2015 were much higher than those during 1960-2015:0.38°C/10yr, 0.35°C/10yr and 0.36°C/10yr, respectively. The seasonal maximum, minimum and mean temperature significantly increased in the spring, autumn and winter seasons during 1960-2015. Although the summer temperatures also increased at some extent, only the minimum temperature showed a significant increasing trend. Meanwhile, the highest rate of increase of seasonal mean temperature occurred in winter (0.24°C/10yr) during 1960-2015 and spring (0.50°C/10yr) during 1980-2015, which indicated that the significant warming trend for the whole YRB could be attributed to the remarkable temperature increases in winter and spring months. However, both the annual and seasonal warming magnitudes showed large regional differences, and a higher warming rate was detected in the eastern YRB and the western source region of the Yangtze River on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP). Additionally, annual precipitation increased by approximately 12.02 mm/10yr during 1960-2015 but decreased at the rate of 19.63 mm/10yr during 1980-2015. There were decreasing trends for precipitation in all four seasons since 1980 in the YRB, and a significant increasing trend was only detected in summer since 1960 (12.37 mm/10yr). Overall, a warming-wetting trend was detected in the south-eastern and north-western YRB, while there was a warming-drying trend in middle regions.

Statistical prediction of September Arctic Sea Ice minimum based on stable teleconnections with global climate and oceanic patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ionita, M.; Grosfeld, K.; Scholz, P.; Lohmann, G.

2016-12-01

Sea ice in both Polar Regions is an important indicator for the expression of global climate change and its polar amplification. Consequently, a broad information interest exists on sea ice, its coverage, variability and long term change. Knowledge on sea ice requires high quality data on ice extent, thickness and its dynamics. However, its predictability depends on various climate parameters and conditions. In order to provide insights into the potential development of a monthly/seasonal signal, we developed a robust statistical model based on ocean heat content, sea surface temperature and atmospheric variables to calculate an estimate of the September minimum sea ice extent for every year. Although previous statistical attempts at monthly/seasonal forecasts of September sea ice minimum show a relatively reduced skill, here it is shown that more than 97% (r = 0.98) of the September sea ice extent can predicted three months in advance by using previous months conditions via a multiple linear regression model based on global sea surface temperature (SST), mean sea level pressure (SLP), air temperature at 850hPa (TT850), surface winds and sea ice extent persistence. The statistical model is based on the identification of regions with stable teleconnections between the predictors (climatological parameters) and the predictand (here sea ice extent). The results based on our statistical model contribute to the sea ice prediction network for the sea ice outlook report (https://www.arcus.org/sipn) and could provide a tool for identifying relevant regions and climate parameters that are important for the sea ice development in the Arctic and for detecting sensitive and critical regions in global coupled climate models with focus on sea ice formation.

Highly ionized atoms observed with Copernicus. [stellar O lines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

York, D. G.

1974-01-01

Based on high-resolution observations using the Princeton satellite/spectrometer on Copernicus the O VI doublet is discussed in detail, in conjunction with data for the resonance lines of N V, Si IV, and S IV reported in five stars. The temperature, density, and the possible extent of the O VI producing region are discussed. The ratio N(S IV)/N(O VI) is used to derive a lower limit to the temperature in the O VI producing region. In near pressure equilibrium with normal interstellar clouds and H II regions minimum densities are found to be consistent with a hot plasma.

Development and Evaluation of High-Resolution Climate Simulations Over the Mountainous Northeastern United States

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Winter, Jonathan M.; Beckage, Brian; Bucini, Gabriela; Horton, Radley M.; Clemins, Patrick J.

2016-01-01

The mountain regions of the northeastern United States are a critical socioeconomic resource for Vermont, New York State, New Hampshire, Maine, and southern Quebec. While global climate models (GCMs) are important tools for climate change risk assessment at regional scales, even the increased spatial resolution of statistically downscaled GCMs (commonly approximately 1/ 8 deg) is not sufficient for hydrologic, ecologic, and land-use modeling of small watersheds within the mountainous Northeast. To address this limitation, an ensemble of topographically downscaled, high-resolution (30"), daily 2-m maximum air temperature; 2-m minimum air temperature; and precipitation simulations are developed for the mountainous Northeast by applying an additional level of downscaling to intermediately downscaled (1/ 8 deg) data using high-resolution topography and station observations. First, observed relationships between 2-m air temperature and elevation and between precipitation and elevation are derived. Then, these relationships are combined with spatial interpolation to enhance the resolution of intermediately downscaled GCM simulations. The resulting topographically downscaled dataset is analyzed for its ability to reproduce station observations. Topographic downscaling adds value to intermediately downscaled maximum and minimum 2-m air temperature at high-elevation stations, as well as moderately improves domain-averaged maximum and minimum 2-m air temperature. Topographic downscaling also improves mean precipitation but not daily probability distributions of precipitation. Overall, the utility of topographic downscaling is dependent on the initial bias of the intermediately downscaled product and the magnitude of the elevation adjustment. As the initial bias or elevation adjustment increases, more value is added to the topographically downscaled product.

Anomalous maximum and minimum for the dissociation of a geminate pair in energetically disordered media

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Govatski, J. A.; da Luz, M. G. E.; Koehler, M.

2015-01-01

We study the geminated pair dissociation probability φ as function of applied electric field and temperature in energetically disordered nD media. Regardless nD, for certain parameters regions φ versus the disorder degree (σ) displays anomalous minimum (maximum) at low (moderate) fields. This behavior is compatible with a transport energy which reaches a maximum and then decreases to negative values as σ increases. Our results explain the temperature dependence of the persistent photoconductivity in C60 single crystals going through order-disorder transitions. They also indicate how an energetic disorder spatial variation may contribute to higher exciton dissociation in multicomponent donor/acceptor systems.

Modelling Spatial Dependence Structures Between Climate Variables by Combining Mixture Models with Copula Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khan, F.; Pilz, J.; Spöck, G.

2017-12-01

Spatio-temporal dependence structures play a pivotal role in understanding the meteorological characteristics of a basin or sub-basin. This further affects the hydrological conditions and consequently will provide misleading results if these structures are not taken into account properly. In this study we modeled the spatial dependence structure between climate variables including maximum, minimum temperature and precipitation in the Monsoon dominated region of Pakistan. For temperature, six, and for precipitation four meteorological stations have been considered. For modelling the dependence structure between temperature and precipitation at multiple sites, we utilized C-Vine, D-Vine and Student t-copula models. For temperature, multivariate mixture normal distributions and for precipitation gamma distributions have been used as marginals under the copula models. A comparison was made between C-Vine, D-Vine and Student t-copula by observational and simulated spatial dependence structure to choose an appropriate model for the climate data. The results show that all copula models performed well, however, there are subtle differences in their performances. The copula models captured the patterns of spatial dependence structures between climate variables at multiple meteorological sites, however, the t-copula showed poor performance in reproducing the dependence structure with respect to magnitude. It was observed that important statistics of observed data have been closely approximated except of maximum values for temperature and minimum values for minimum temperature. Probability density functions of simulated data closely follow the probability density functions of observational data for all variables. C and D-Vines are better tools when it comes to modelling the dependence between variables, however, Student t-copulas compete closely for precipitation. Keywords: Copula model, C-Vine, D-Vine, Spatial dependence structure, Monsoon dominated region of Pakistan, Mixture models, EM algorithm.

Estimation of Surface Air Temperature Over Central and Eastern Eurasia from MODIS Land Surface Temperature

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shen, Suhung; Leptoukh, Gregory G.

2011-01-01

Surface air temperature (T(sub a)) is a critical variable in the energy and water cycle of the Earth.atmosphere system and is a key input element for hydrology and land surface models. This is a preliminary study to evaluate estimation of T(sub a) from satellite remotely sensed land surface temperature (T(sub s)) by using MODIS-Terra data over two Eurasia regions: northern China and fUSSR. High correlations are observed in both regions between station-measured T(sub a) and MODIS T(sub s). The relationships between the maximum T(sub a) and daytime T(sub s) depend significantly on land cover types, but the minimum T(sub a) and nighttime T(sub s) have little dependence on the land cover types. The largest difference between maximum T(sub a) and daytime T(sub s) appears over the barren and sparsely vegetated area during the summer time. Using a linear regression method, the daily maximum T(sub a) were estimated from 1 km resolution MODIS T(sub s) under clear-sky conditions with coefficients calculated based on land cover types, while the minimum T(sub a) were estimated without considering land cover types. The uncertainty, mean absolute error (MAE), of the estimated maximum T(sub a) varies from 2.4 C over closed shrublands to 3.2 C over grasslands, and the MAE of the estimated minimum Ta is about 3.0 C.

Oxygen and Temperature Effects on Vertically Migrating Animals in Oxygen Minimum Zones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seibel, B.

2016-02-01

Large populations of oceanic nekton and zooplankton undergo daily migrations from shallow water at night to depths greater than 200 m during the daytime. In some regions, these migrations cross extreme gradients of temperature, oxygen and carbon dioxide. Oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) are extensive and characterized by deep-water (100-800 m) oxygen partial pressures that would be lethal to most marine organisms, yet are tolerated by vertical migrators. Climate change is predicted to further deplete oxygen, and measurable reductions in oxygen have already been documented in some regions. Increases in shallow water temperature and carbon dioxide are occurring simultaneously. Oxygen levels and temperature are important drivers of biodiversity and distribution, and documented changes in community structure and function are reportedly associated with OMZ expansion and warming. Here I answer fundamental questions concerning zooplankton distributions, adaptations, and functions in oxygen minimum zones. In particular I report that metabolic suppression is a common strategy that facilitates diel occupancy of extreme hypoxia in many oceanic taxa. Anaerobic metabolic pathways play a minimal role in compensating for reduced aerobic ATP production. Numerous epigenetic mechanisms lead to reductions in energetically costly cellular processes, such as transcription and translation. Total metabolism is reduced by 50% or more during exposure to levels of hypoxia that characterize the daytime habitat for most vertically-migrating zooplankton. I further show that many migrators approach their upper thermal maximum in shallow water at night. Thus expanding OMZs and global warming may together compress the habitable depth range for many species.

Changing climate and endangered high mountain ecosystems in Colombia.

PubMed

Ruiz, Daniel; Moreno, Hernán Alonso; Gutiérrez, María Elena; Zapata, Paula Andrea

2008-07-15

High mountain ecosystems are among the most sensitive environments to changes in climatic conditions occurring on global, regional and local scales. The article describes the changing conditions observed over recent years in the high mountain basin of the Claro River, on the west flank of the Colombian Andean Central mountain range. Local ground truth data gathered at 4150 m, regional data available at nearby weather stations, and satellite info were used to analyze changes in the mean and the variance, and significant trends in climatic time series. Records included minimum, mean and maximum temperatures, relative humidity, rainfall, sunshine, and cloud characteristics. In high levels, minimum and maximum temperatures during the coldest days increased at a rate of about 0.6 degrees C/decade, whereas maximum temperatures during the warmest days increased at a rate of about 1.3 degrees C/decade. Rates of increase in maximum, mean and minimum diurnal temperature range reached 0.6, 0.7, and 0.5 degrees C/decade. Maximum, mean and minimum relative humidity records showed reductions of about 1.8, 3.9 and 6.6%/decade. The total number of sunny days per month increased in almost 2.1 days. The headwaters exhibited no changes in rainfall totals, but evidenced an increased occurrence of unusually heavy rainfall events. Reductions in the amount of all cloud types over the area reached 1.9%/decade. In low levels changes in mean monthly temperatures and monthly rainfall totals exceeded + 0.2 degrees C and - 4% per decade, respectively. These striking changes might have contributed to the retreat of glacier icecaps and to the disappearance of high altitude water bodies, as well as to the occurrence and rapid spread of natural and man-induced forest fires. Significant reductions in water supply, important disruptions of the integrity of high mountain ecosystems, and dramatic losses of biodiversity are now a steady menu of the severe climatic conditions experienced by these fragile tropical environments.

Projected changes in climate extremes over Qatar and the Arabian Gulf region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kundeti, K.; Kanikicharla, K. K.; Al sulaiti, M.; Khulaifi, M.; Alboinin, N.; Kito, A.

2015-12-01

The climate of the State of Qatar and the adjacent region is dominated by subtropical dry, hot desert climate with low annual rainfall, very high temperatures in summer and a big difference between maximum and minimum temperatures, especially in the inland areas. The coastal areas are influenced by the Arabian Gulf, and have lower maximum, but higher minimum temperatures and a higher moisture percentage in the air. The global warming can have profound impact on the mean climate as well as extreme weather events over the Arabian Peninsula that may affect both natural and human systems significantly. Therefore, it is important to assess the future changes in the seasonal/annual mean of temperature and precipitation and also the extremes in temperature and wind events for a country like Qatar. This study assesses the performance of the Coupled Model Inter comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations in present and develops future climate scenarios. The changes in climate extremes are assessed for three future periods 2016-2035, 2046-2065 and 2080-2099 with respect to 1986-2005 (base line) under two RCPs (Representative Concentrate Pathways) - RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. We analyzed the projected changes in temperature and precipitation extremes using several indices including those that capture heat stress. The observations show an increase in warm extremes over many parts in this region that are generally well captured by the models. The results indicate a significant change in frequency and intensity of both temperature and precipitation extremes over many parts of this region which may have serious implications on human health, water resources and the onshore/offshore infrastructure in this region. Data from a high-resolution (20km) AGCM simulation from Meteorological Research Institute of Japan Meteorological Agency for the present (1979-2003) and a future time slice (2075-2099) corresponding to RCP8.5 have also been utilized to assess the impact of climate change on regional climate extremes as well. The scenarios generated with the high-resolution model simulation were compared with the coarse resolution CMIP5 model scenarios to identify region specific features that might be better resolved in the former simulation.

Nest temperature fluctuations in a cavity nester, the southern ground-hornbill.

PubMed

Combrink, L; Combrink, H J; Botha, A J; Downs, C T

2017-05-01

Southern ground-hornbills Bucorvus leadbeateri inhabit savanna and bushveld regions of South Africa. They nest in the austral summer, which coincides with the wet season and hottest daytime temperatures in the region. They are secondary cavity nesters and typically nest in large cavities in trees, cliffs and earth banks, but readily use artificial nest boxes. Southern ground-hornbills are listed as Endangered in South Africa, with reintroductions into suitable areas highlighted as a viable conservation intervention for the species. Nest microclimate, and the possible implications this may have for the breeding biology of southern ground-hornbills, have never been investigated. We used temperature dataloggers to record nest cavity temperature and ambient temperature for one artificial and 11 natural southern ground-hornbill tree cavity nests combined, spanning two breeding seasons. Mean hourly nest temperature, as well as mean minimum and mean maximum nest temperature, differed significantly between southern ground-hornbill nests in both breeding seasons. Mean nest temperature also differed significantly from mean ambient temperature for both seasons. Natural nest cavities provided a buffer against the ambient temperature fluctuations. The artificial nest provided little insulation against temperature extremes, being warmer and cooler than the maximum and minimum local ambient temperatures, respectively. Nest cavity temperature was not found to have an influence on the breeding success of the southern ground-hornbill groups investigated in this study. These results have potentially important implications for southern ground-hornbill conservation and artificial nest design, as they suggest that the birds can tolerate greater nest cavity temperature extremes than previously thought. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Understanding the science of climate change: Talking points - Impacts to Prairie Potholes and Grasslands

Treesearch

Rachel Loehman

2009-01-01

Climate changes in the Prairie Potholes and Grasslands bioregion include increased seasonal, annual, minimum, and maximum temperature and changing precipitation patterns. Because the region is relatively dry with a strong seasonal climate, it is sensitive to climatic changes and vulnerable to changes in climatic regime. For example, model simulations show that regional...

Assessing climate change over the Marche Region (central Italy) from 1961 to 2100: projected changes in mean temperature and future heat waves characterization (with a statistical evaluation of RCMs local performance)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sangelantoni, Lorenzo; Coluccelli, Alessandro; Russo, Aniello

2014-05-01

Marche region (central Italy, facing the Adriatic Sea) climate dynamics are connected to the Mediterranean basin, identified as one of the most sensitive areas to ongoing climate change. Taken into account difficulties to carry out an overarching assessment over the heterogeneous Mediterranean climate-change issues frame, we opted toward a consistent regional bordered study. Projected changes in mean seasonal temperature, with an introductory multi-statistical model performance evaluation and a future heat waves intensity and duration characterization, are here presented. Multi-model projections over Marche Region, on daily mean, minimum and maximum temperature, have been extracted from the outputs of a set of 7 Regional Climate Models (RCMs) over Europe run by several research Institutes participating to the EU ENSEMBLE project. These climate simulations from 1961 to 2100 refer to the boundary conditions of the IPCC A1B emission scenario, and have a horizontal resolution of 25km × 25km. Furthermore, two RCMs outputs from Med-CORDEX project, with a higher horizontal resolution (12km x 12km) and boundary conditions provided by the new Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5, are considered. Observed daily mean, minimum and maximum temperature over Marche region domain have been extracted from E-OBS gridded data set (Version 9.0) referring to the period 1970-2004. This twofold work firstly provides a concise statistical summary of how well employed RCMs reproduce observed (1970-2004) mean temperature over Marche region in term of correlation, root-mean-square difference, and ratio of their variances, graphically displayed on a 2D-Taylor diagram. This multi-statistical model performance evaluation easily allows: - to compare the agreement with observation of the 9 individual RCMs - to compare RCMs with different horizontal resolution (12 km and 25 km) - to evaluate the improvement provided by the RCMs ensemble. Results indicate that the 9 RCMs ensemble provides the statistically best reproduction of the observed interannual mean temperature distribution. Secondly, we assessed projected seasonal ensemble average change in mean temperature referring to the ending 21st century obtained by comparison between 2071-2100 and 1961-1990 time slice modeled mean value over Marche region. Results emphasize summer as the season most affected by projected temperature increase (+4.5°C / +5.0°C), followed by spring season temperature increase (+3.5°C / +4.0°C). Finally, considering that some of the most severe health hazards arise from multi-day heat-waves, associated with both hot day-time and warm night-time temperatures, we assessed modeled trend (1961-2100) of the heat waves intensity and duration: intensity through the temporal evolution of the summer (J J A months) maximum and minimum temperature 90th percentile, heat waves length by temporal evolution of two detected threshold-based indices (annual maximum number of consecutive days characterized by Tmin >= 24°C and annual maximum number of consecutive days characterized by Tmax > = 32°C). Same analysis for both coastal and mountainous areas has been conducted. Future research plans aim to involve ensemble RCMs simulation, processed with bias correction methods, in forcing climate change impacts models, to provide a detailed regional heat waves impacts scenario, mainly over agriculture and health sectors.

A basin-scale approach to estimating stream temperatures of tributaries to the lower Klamath River, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Flint, L.E.; Flint, A.L.

2008-01-01

Stream temperature is an important component of salmonid habitat and is often above levels suitable for fish survival in the Lower Klamath River in northern California. The objective of this study was to provide boundary conditions for models that are assessing stream temperature on the main stem for the purpose of developing strategies to manage stream conditions using Total Maximum Daily Loads. For model input, hourly stream temperatures for 36 tributaries were estimated for 1 Jan. 2001 through 31 Oct. 2004. A basin-scale approach incorporating spatially distributed energy balance data was used to estimate the stream temperatures with measured air temperature and relative humidity data and simulated solar radiation, including topographic shading and corrections for cloudiness. Regression models were developed on the basis of available stream temperature data to predict temperatures for unmeasured periods of time and for unmeasured streams. The most significant factor in matching measured minimum and maximum stream temperatures was the seasonality of the estimate. Adding minimum and maximum air temperature to the regression model improved the estimate, and air temperature data over the region are available and easily distributed spatially. The addition of simulated solar radiation and vapor saturation deficit to the regression model significantly improved predictions of maximum stream temperature but was not required to predict minimum stream temperature. The average SE in estimated maximum daily stream temperature for the individual basins was 0.9 ?? 0.6??C at the 95% confidence interval. Copyright ?? 2008 by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America. All rights reserved.

Changes in heat waves indices in Romania over the period 1961-2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Croitoru, Adina-Eliza; Piticar, Adrian; Ciupertea, Antoniu-Flavius; Roşca, Cristina Florina

2016-11-01

In the last two decades many climate change studies have focused on extreme temperatures as they have a significant impact on environment and society. Among the weather events generated by extreme temperatures, heat waves are some of the most harmful. The main objective of this study was to detect and analyze changes in heat waves in Romania based on daily observation data (maximum and minimum temperature) over the extended summer period (May-Sept) using a set of 10 indices and to explore the spatial patterns of changes. Heat wave data series were derived from daily maximum and minimum temperature data sets recorded in 29 weather stations across Romania over a 55-year period (1961-2015). In this study, the threshold chosen was the 90th percentile calculated based on a 15-day window centered on each calendar day, and for three baseline periods (1961-1990, 1971-2000, and 1981-2010). Two heat wave definitions were considered: at least three consecutive days when maximum temperature exceeds 90th percentile, and at least three consecutive days when minimum temperature exceeds 90th percentile. For each of them, five variables were calculated: amplitude, magnitude, number of events, duration, and frequency. Finally, 10 indices resulted for further analysis. The main results are: most of the indices have statistically significant increasing trends; only one index for one weather station indicated statistically significant decreasing trend; the changes are more intense in case of heat waves detected based on maximum temperature compared to those obtained for heat waves identified based on minimum temperature; western and central regions of Romania are the most exposed to increasing heat waves.

Evidence of Lunar Phase Influence on Global Surface Air Temperatures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Anyamba, Ebby; Susskind, Joel

2000-01-01

Intraseasonal oscillations appearing in a newly available 20-year record of satellite-derived surface air temperature are composited with respect to the lunar phase. Polar regions exhibit strong lunar phase modulation with higher temperatures occurs near full moon and lower temperatures at new moon, in agreement with previous studies. The polar response to the apparent lunar forcing is shown to be most robust in the winter months when solar influence is minimum. In addition, the response appears to be influenced by ENSO events. The highest mean temperature range between full moon and new moon in the polar region between 60 deg and 90 deg latitude was recorded in 1983, 1986/87, and 1990/91. Although the largest lunar phase signal is in the polar regions, there is a tendency for meridional equatorward progression of anomalies in both hemispheres so that the warning in the tropics occurs at the time of the new moon.

Evaluation of extreme temperature events in northern Spain based on process control charts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Villeta, M.; Valencia, J. L.; Saá, A.; Tarquis, A. M.

2018-02-01

Extreme climate events have recently attracted the attention of a growing number of researchers because these events impose a large cost on agriculture and associated insurance planning. This study focuses on extreme temperature events and proposes a new method for their evaluation based on statistical process control tools, which are unusual in climate studies. A series of minimum and maximum daily temperatures for 12 geographical areas of a Spanish region between 1931 and 2009 were evaluated by applying statistical process control charts to statistically test whether evidence existed for an increase or a decrease of extreme temperature events. Specification limits were determined for each geographical area and used to define four types of extreme anomalies: lower and upper extremes for the minimum and maximum anomalies. A new binomial Markov extended process that considers the autocorrelation between extreme temperature events was generated for each geographical area and extreme anomaly type to establish the attribute control charts for the annual fraction of extreme days and to monitor the occurrence of annual extreme days. This method was used to assess the significance of changes and trends of extreme temperature events in the analysed region. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of an attribute control chart for evaluating extreme temperature events. For example, the evaluation of extreme maximum temperature events using the proposed statistical process control charts was consistent with the evidence of an increase in maximum temperatures during the last decades of the last century.

Ring-widths of the above tree-line shrub Rhododendron reveal the change of minimum winter temperature over the past 211 years in Southwestern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bi, Yingfeng; Xu, Jianchu; Yang, Jinchao; Li, Zongshan; Gebrekirstos, Aster; Liang, Eryuan; Zhang, Shibao; Yang, Yang; Yang, Yongping; Yang, Xuefei

2017-06-01

Changes in minimum winter temperature (MWT) and their potential effects on plant growth and development have been gaining increased scientific attention. To better understand these changes across long temporal scales, the present study used dendroclimatological techniques to assess variations in MWT in Southwestern China. Using data from Rhododendron species distributed in areas above the tree-line, a regional composite chronology was generated for a 341-year period. Based on the significant negative correlation between MWT values and ring-width, the most reliable parts of this chronological data were then used to reconstruct MWT values for the past 211 years. This reconstructed MWT series showed decadal to multi-decadal fluctuations. Three distinct cold periods prevailed during 1823-1858, 1882-1891 and 1922-1965, while four warm intervals occurred in 1800-1822, 1858-1881, 1892-1921 and 1966-2011. Our reconstructed MWT reveals a warming trend over the most recent eight decades, which is in agreement with instrumental observations. However, the MWT values and rate of warming over the past seven decades did not exceed those found in the reconstructed temperature data for the past 211 years. Spatial correlations reveal that the MWT in Southwest China is strongly associated with regional temperatures in the Eastern and Central Himalaya, Northern China, and the Indian Peninsula. Larger scale climate oscillations of the Western Pacific and Northern Indian Ocean as well as the North Atlantic Oscillation probably influenced the region's temperature in the past.

High latitude field aligned light ion flows in the topside ionosphere deduced from ion composition and plasma temperatures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grebowsky, J. M.; Hoegy, W. R.; Chen, T. C.

1993-01-01

Using a comprehensive ionospheric data set comprised of all available ion composition and plasma temperature measurements from satellites, the vertical distributions of ion composition and plasma temperatures are defined from middle latitudes up into the polar cap for summer conditions for altitudes below about 1200 km. These data are sufficient to allow a numerical estimation of the latitudinal variation of the light ion outflows from within the plasmasphere to the polar wind regions. The altitude at which significant light ion outflow begins is found to be lower during solar minimum conditions than during solar maximum. The H(+) outward speeds are of the order of 1 km/s near 1100 km during solar maximum but attain several km/s speeds for solar minimum. He(+) shows a similar altitude development of flow but attains polar cap speeds much less than 1 km/s at altitudes below 1100 km, particularly under solar maximum conditions. Outward flows are also found in the topside F-region for noontime magnetic flux tubes within the plasmasphere.

Analysis of a long drought in Piedmont, Italy - Autumn 2001

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gandini, D.; Marchisio, C.; Paesano, G.; Pelosini, P.

2003-04-01

A long period of drought and cold temperatures has characterised the seasons of Autumn 2001 and Winter 2001-2002 on the regions of the southern Alpine chain. The analysis of precipitation's data, collected by the Regional Monitoring network of Piedmont Region (on the south-west side of Alps), shows that they are far below the mean values and very close to the historical minimum of the last century. The six months accumulated precipitation in Turin (Piedmont chief town), from June to December 2001, has reached the historical minimum value of 206 mm in comparison with a mean value of 540 mm. The drought has been remarkable also in the mountain areas with the lack of snowfalls and critical consequences for water reservoirs. At the same time, the number of days with daily averaged temperature below or close to 0°C in December 2001 has been the greatest value of the last 50 years, much higher than the 50 years average, for the whole Piedmont region. This study contains a detailed analysis of observed data to characterise the drought episode, associated with a climatological analysis of meteorological parameters in order to detect the typical large scale pattern of the drought periods and their persistency's features.

Adjusted monthly temperature and precipitation values for Guinea Conakry (1941-2010) using HOMER.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aguilar, Enric; Aziz Barry, Abdoul; Mestre, Olivier

2013-04-01

Africa is a data sparse region and there are very few studies presenting homogenized monthly records. In this work, we introduce a dataset consisting of 12 stations spread over Guinea Conakry containing daily values of maximum and minimum temperature and accumulated rainfall for the period 1941-2010. The daily values have been quality controlled using R-Climdex routines, plus other interactive quality control applications, coded by the authors. After applying the different tests, more than 200 daily values were flagged as doubtful and carefully checked against the statistical distribution of the series and the rest of the dataset. Finally, 40 values were modified or set to missing and the rest were validated. The quality controlled daily dataset was used to produce monthly means and homogenized with HOMER, a new R-pacakge which includes the relative methods that performed better in the experiments conducted in the framework of the COST-HOME action. A total number of 38 inhomogeneities were found for temperature. As a total of 788 years of data were analyzed, the average ratio was one break every 20.7 years. The station with a larger number of inhomogeneities was Conakry (5 breaks) and one station, Kissidougou, was identified as homogeneous. The average number of breaks/station was 3.2. The mean value of the monthly factors applied to maximum (minimum) temperature was 0.17 °C (-1.08 °C) . For precipitation, due to the demand of a denser network to correctly homogenize this variable, only two major inhomogeneities in Conakry (1941-1961, -12%) and Kindia (1941-1976, -10%) were corrected. The adjusted dataset was used to compute regional series for the three variables and trends for the 1941-2010 period. The regional mean has been computed by simply averaging anomalies to 1971-2000 of the 12 time series. Two different versions have been obtained: a first one (A) makes use of the missing values interpolation made by HOMER (so all annual values in the regional series are an average of 12 anomalies); the second one (B) removes the missing values, and each value of the regional series is an average of 5 to 12 anomalies. In this case, a variance stabilization factor has been applied. As a last step a trend analysis has been applied over the regional series. This has been done using two different approaches: standard least squares regression (LS) and the implementation by Zhang of the Sen slope estimator (SEN), applied using the zyp R-package. The results for the A & B series and the different trend calculations are very similar, in terms of slopes and signification. All the identified trends are significant at the 95% confidence level or better. Using the A series and the SEN slope, the annual regional mean of maximum temperatures has increased 0.135 °C/decade (95% confidence interval: 0.087 / 0.173) and the annual regional mean of minimum temperatures 0.092 °C/decade (0.050/0.135). Maximum temperatures present high values in the 1940s to 1950s and a large increase in the last decades. In contrast, minimum temperatures were relatively cooler in the 1940s and 1950s and the increase in the last decades is more moderate. Finally, the regional mean of annual accumulated precipitation decreased between 1941 and 2010 by -2.20 mm (-3.82/-0.64). The precipitation series are dominated by the high values before 1970, followed by a well known decrease in rainfall. This homogenized monthly series will improve future analysis over this portion of Western Africa.

Dominance of non-native riparian trees in western USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Friedman, J.M.; Auble, G.T.; Shafroth, P.B.; Scott, M.L.; Merigliano, M.F.; Freehling, M.D.; Griffin, E.R.

2005-01-01

Concern about spread of non-native riparian trees in the western USA has led to Congressional proposals to accelerate control efforts. Debate over these proposals is frustrated by limited knowledge of non-native species distribution and abundance. We measured abundance of 44 riparian woody plants at 475 randomly selected stream gaging stations in 17 western states. Our sample indicates that Tamarix ramosissima and Elaeagnus angustifolia are already the third and fourth most frequently occurring woody riparian plants in the region. Although many species of Tamarix have been reported in the region, T. ramosissima (here including T. chinensis and hybrids) is by far the most abundant. The frequency of occurrence of T. ramosissima has a strong positive relation with the mean annual minimum temperature, which is consistent with hypothesized frost sensitivity. In contrast the frequency of occurrence of E. angustifolia decreases with increasing minimum temperatures. Based on mean normalized cover, T. ramosissima and E. angustifolia are the second and fifth most dominant woody riparian species in the western USA. The dominance of T. ramosissima has been suspected for decades; the regional ascendance of E. angustifolia, however, has not previously been reported.

Variability of AVHRR-Derived Clear-Sky Surface Temperature over the Greenland Ice Sheet.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stroeve, Julienne; Steffen, Konrad

1998-01-01

The Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer is used to derive surface temperatures for one satellite pass under clear skies over the Greenland ice sheet from 1989 through 1993. The results of these temperatures are presented as monthly means, and their spatial and temporal variability are discussed. Accuracy of the dry snow surface temperatures is estimated to be better than 1 K during summer. This error is expected to increase during polar night due to problems in cloud identification. Results indicate the surface temperature of the Greenland ice sheet is strongly dominated by topography, with minimum surface temperatures associated with the high elevation regions. In the summer, maximum surface temperatures occur during July along the western coast and southern tip of the ice sheet. Minimum temperatures are found at the summit during summer and move farther north during polar night. Large interannual variability in surface temperatures occurs during winter associated with katabatic storm events. Summer temperatures show little variation, although 1992 stands out as being colder than the other years. The reason for the lower temperatures during 1992 is believed to be a result of the 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo.

Long-term comparison of the climate extremes variability in different climate types located in coastal and inland regions of Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghiami-Shamami, Fereshteh; Sabziparvar, Ali Akbar; Shinoda, Seirou

2018-06-01

The present study examined annually and seasonally trends in climate-based and location-based indices after detection of artificial change points and application of homogenization. Thirteen temperature and eight precipitation indices were generated at 27 meteorological stations over Iran during 1961-2012. The Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimator were applied for trend detection. Results revealed that almost all indices based on minimum temperature followed warmer conditions. Indicators based on minimum temperature showed less consistency with more cold and less warm events. Climate-based results for all extremes indicated semi-arid climate had the most warming events. Moreover, based on location-based results, inland areas showed the most signs of warming. Indices based on precipitation exhibited a negative trend in warm seasons, with the most changes in coastal areas and inland, respectively. Results provided evidence of warming and drying since the 1990s. Changes in precipitation indices were much weaker and less spatially coherent. Summer was found to be the most sensitive season, in comparison with winter. For arid and semi-arid regions, by increasing the latitude, less warm events occurred, while increasing the longitude led to more warming events. Overall, Iran is dominated by a significant increase in warm events, especially minimum temperature-based indices (nighttime). This result, in addition to fewer precipitation events, suggests a generally dryer regime for the future, which is more evident in the warm season of semi-arid sites. The results could provide beneficial references for water resources and eco-environmental policymakers.

Long-term trends in daily temperature extremes in Iraq

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salman, Saleem A.; Shahid, Shamsuddin; Ismail, Tarmizi; Chung, Eun-Sung; Al-Abadi, Alaa M.

2017-12-01

The existence of long-term persistence (LTP) in hydro-climatic time series can lead to considerable change in significance of trends. Therefore, past findings of climatic trend studies that did not consider LTP became a disputable issue. A study has been conducted to assess the trends in temperature and temperature extremes in Iraq in recent years (1965-2015) using both ordinary Mann-Kendal (MK) test; and the modified Mann-Kendall (m-MK) test, which can differentiate the multi-decadal oscillatory variations from secular trends. Trends in annual and seasonal minimum and maximum temperatures, diurnal temperature range (DTR), and 14 temperature-related extremes were assessed. MK test detected the significant increases in minimum and maximum temperature at all stations, where m-MK test detected at 86% and 80% of all stations, respectively. The temperature in Iraq is increasing 2 to 7 times faster than global temperature rise. The minimum temperature is increasing more (0.48-1.17 °C/decade) than maximum temperature (0.25-1.01 °C/decade). Temperature rise is higher in northern Iraq and in summer. The hot extremes particularly warm nights are increasing all over Iraq at a rate of 2.92-10.69 days/decade, respectively. On the other hand, numbers of cold days are decreasing at some stations at a rate of - 2.65 to - 8.40 days/decade. The use of m-MK test along with MK test confirms the significant increase in temperature and some of the temperature extremes in Iraq. This study suggests that trends in many temperature extremes in the region estimated in previous studies using MK test may be due to natural variability of climate, which empathizes the need for validation of the trends by considering LTP in time series.

Microdisk Injection Lasers for the 1.27-μm Spectral Range

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kryzhanovskaya, N. V.; Maximov, M. V.; Blokhin, S. A.

2016-03-15

Microdisk injection lasers on GaAs substrates, with a minimum diameter of 15 μm and an active region based on InAs/InGaAs quantum dots, are fabricated. The lasers operate in the continuous-wave mode at room temperature without external cooling. The lasing wavelength is around 1.27 μm at a minimum threshold current of 1.6 mA. The specific thermal resistance is estimated to be 5 × 10–3 °C cm{sup 2}/W.

Polar Chromospheric Signatures of the Subdued Cycle 23/24 Solar Minimum

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gopalswamy, N.; Yashiro, S.; Makela, P.; Shibasaki, K.; Hathaway, D.

2010-01-01

Coronal holes appear brighter than the quiet Sun in microwave images, with a brightness enhancement of 500 to 2000 K. The brightness enhancement corresponds to the upper chromosphere, where the plasma temperature is about 10000 K. We constructed a microwave butterfly diagram using the synoptic images obtained by the Nobeyama radioheliograph (NoRH) showing the evolution of the polar and low latitude brightness temperature. While the polar brightness reveals the chromospheric conditions, the low latitude brightness is attributed to active regions in the corona. When we compared the microwave butterfly diagram with the magnetic butterfly diagram, we found a good correlation between the microwave brightness enhancement and the polar field strength. The microwave butterfly diagram covers part of solar cycle 22, whole of cycle 23, and part of cycle 24, thus enabling comparison between the cycle 23/24 and cycle 22/23 minima. The microwave brightness during the cycle 23/24 minimum was found to be lower than that during the cycle 22/23 minimum by approximately 250 K. The reduced brightness temperature is consistent with the reduced polar field strength during the cycle 23/24 minimum seen in the magnetic butterfly diagram. We suggest that the microwave brightness at the solar poles is a good indicator of the speed of the solar wind sampled by Ulysses at high latitudes.

Effects of Recent Minimum Temperature and Water Deficit Increases on Pinus pinaster Radial Growth and Wood Density in Southern Portugal.

PubMed

Kurz-Besson, Cathy B; Lousada, José L; Gaspar, Maria J; Correia, Isabel E; David, Teresa S; Soares, Pedro M M; Cardoso, Rita M; Russo, Ana; Varino, Filipa; Mériaux, Catherine; Trigo, Ricardo M; Gouveia, Célia M

2016-01-01

Western Iberia has recently shown increasing frequency of drought conditions coupled with heatwave events, leading to exacerbated limiting climatic conditions for plant growth. It is not clear to what extent wood growth and density of agroforestry species have suffered from such changes or recent extreme climate events. To address this question, tree-ring width and density chronologies were built for a Pinus pinaster stand in southern Portugal and correlated with climate variables, including the minimum, mean and maximum temperatures and the number of cold days. Monthly and maximum daily precipitations were also analyzed as well as dry spells. The drought effect was assessed using the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration (SPEI) multi-scalar drought index, between 1 to 24-months. The climate-growth/density relationships were evaluated for the period 1958-2011. We show that both wood radial growth and density highly benefit from the strong decay of cold days and the increase of minimum temperature. Yet the benefits are hindered by long-term water deficit, which results in different levels of impact on wood radial growth and density. Despite of the intensification of long-term water deficit, tree-ring width appears to benefit from the minimum temperature increase, whereas the effects of long-term droughts significantly prevail on tree-ring density. Our results further highlight the dependency of the species on deep water sources after the juvenile stage. The impact of climate changes on long-term droughts and their repercussion on the shallow groundwater table and P. pinaster's vulnerability are also discussed. This work provides relevant information for forest management in the semi-arid area of the Alentejo region of Portugal. It should ease the elaboration of mitigation strategies to assure P. pinaster's production capacity and quality in response to more arid conditions in the near future in the region.

Effects of Recent Minimum Temperature and Water Deficit Increases on Pinus pinaster Radial Growth and Wood Density in Southern Portugal

PubMed Central

Kurz-Besson, Cathy B.; Lousada, José L.; Gaspar, Maria J.; Correia, Isabel E.; David, Teresa S.; Soares, Pedro M. M.; Cardoso, Rita M.; Russo, Ana; Varino, Filipa; Mériaux, Catherine; Trigo, Ricardo M.; Gouveia, Célia M.

2016-01-01

Western Iberia has recently shown increasing frequency of drought conditions coupled with heatwave events, leading to exacerbated limiting climatic conditions for plant growth. It is not clear to what extent wood growth and density of agroforestry species have suffered from such changes or recent extreme climate events. To address this question, tree-ring width and density chronologies were built for a Pinus pinaster stand in southern Portugal and correlated with climate variables, including the minimum, mean and maximum temperatures and the number of cold days. Monthly and maximum daily precipitations were also analyzed as well as dry spells. The drought effect was assessed using the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration (SPEI) multi-scalar drought index, between 1 to 24-months. The climate-growth/density relationships were evaluated for the period 1958-2011. We show that both wood radial growth and density highly benefit from the strong decay of cold days and the increase of minimum temperature. Yet the benefits are hindered by long-term water deficit, which results in different levels of impact on wood radial growth and density. Despite of the intensification of long-term water deficit, tree-ring width appears to benefit from the minimum temperature increase, whereas the effects of long-term droughts significantly prevail on tree-ring density. Our results further highlight the dependency of the species on deep water sources after the juvenile stage. The impact of climate changes on long-term droughts and their repercussion on the shallow groundwater table and P. pinaster’s vulnerability are also discussed. This work provides relevant information for forest management in the semi-arid area of the Alentejo region of Portugal. It should ease the elaboration of mitigation strategies to assure P. pinaster’s production capacity and quality in response to more arid conditions in the near future in the region. PMID:27570527

Estimating the urban bias of surface shelter temperatures using upper-air and satellite data. Part 2: Estimation of the urban bias

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Epperson, David L.; Davis, Jerry M.; Bloomfield, Peter; Karl, Thomas R.; Mcnab, Alan L.; Gallo, Kevin P.

1995-01-01

A methodology is presented for estimating the urban bias of surface shelter temperatures due to the effect of the urban heat island. Multiple regression techniques were used to predict surface shelter temperatures based on the time period 1986-89 using upper-air data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) to represent the background climate, site-specific data to represent the local landscape, and satellite-derived data -- the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) nighttime brightness data -- to represent the urban and rural landscape. Local NDVI and DMSP values were calculated for each station using the mean NDVI and DMSP values from a 3 km x 3 km area centered over the given station. Regional NDVI and DMSP values were calculated to represent a typical rural value for each station using the mean NDVI and DMSP values from a 1 deg x 1 deg latitude-longitude area in which the given station was located. Models for the United States were then developed for monthly maximum, mean, and minimum temperatures using data from over 1000 stations in the U.S. Cooperative (COOP) Network and for monthly mean temperatures with data from over 1150 stations in the Global Historical Climate Network (GHCN). Local biases, or the differences between the model predictions using the observed NDVI and DMSP values, and the predictions using the background regional values were calculated and compared with the results of other research. The local or urban bias of U.S. temperatures, as derived from all U.S. stations (urban and rural) used in the models, averaged near 0.40 C for monthly minimum temperatures, near 0.25 C for monthly mean temperatures, and near 0.10 C for monthly maximum temperatures. The biases of monthly minimum temperatures for individual stations ranged from near -1.1 C for rural stations to 2.4 C for stations from the largest urban areas. The results of this study indicate minimal problems for global application once global NDVI and DMSP data become available.

Geo-spatial analysis of temporal trends of temperature and its extremes over India using daily gridded (1°×1°) temperature data of 1969-2005

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chakraborty, Abhishek; Seshasai, M. V. R.; Rao, S. V. C. Kameswara; Dadhwal, V. K.

2017-10-01

Daily gridded (1°×1°) temperature data (1969-2005) were used to detect spatial patterns of temporal trends of maximum and minimum temperature (monthly and seasonal), growing degree days (GDDs) over the crop-growing season ( kharif, rabi, and zaid) and annual frequencies of temperature extremes over India. The direction and magnitude of trends, at each grid level, were estimated using the Mann-Kendall statistics ( α = 0.05) and further assessed at the homogeneous temperature regions using a field significance test ( α=0.05). General warming trends were observed over India with considerable variations in direction and magnitude over space and time. The spatial extent and the magnitude of the increasing trends of minimum temperature (0.02-0.04 °C year-1) were found to be higher than that of maximum temperature (0.01-0.02 °C year-1) during winter and pre-monsoon seasons. Significant negative trends of minimum temperature were found over eastern India during the monsoon months. Such trends were also observed for the maximum temperature over northern and eastern parts, particularly in the winter month of January. The general warming patterns also changed the thermal environment of the crop-growing season causing significant increase in GDDs during kharif and rabi seasons across India. The warming climate has also caused significant increase in occurrences of hot extremes such as hot days and hot nights, and significant decrease in cold extremes such as cold days and cold nights.

BOREAS AES Campbell Scientific Surface Meteorological Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Atkinson, G. Barrie; Funk, Barrie; Knapp. David E. (Editor); Hall, Forrest G. (Editor)

2000-01-01

Canadian AES personnel collected data related to surface and atmospheric meteorological conditions over the BOREAS region. This data set contains 15-minute meteorological data from 14 automated meteorology stations located across the BOREAS region. Included in this data are parameters of date, time, mean sea level pressure, station pressure, temperature, dew point, wind speed, resultant wind speed, resultant wind direction, peak wind, precipitation, maximum temperature in the last hour, minimum temperature in the last hour, pressure tendency, liquid precipitation in the last hour, relative humidity, precipitation from a weighing gauge, and snow depth. Temporally, the data cover the period of August 1993 to December 1996. The data are provided in tabular ASCII files, and are classified as AFM-Staff data.

Climate trends and projections for the Andean Altiplano and strategies for adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valdivia, C.; Thibeault, J.; Gilles, J. L.; García, M.; Seth, A.

2013-04-01

Climate variability and change impact production in rainfed agricultural systems of the Bolivian highlands. Maximum temperature trends are increasing for the Altiplano. Minimum temperature increases are significant in the northern region, and decreases are significant in the southern region. Producers' perceptions of climate hazards are high in the central region, while concerns with changing climate and unemployment are high in the north. Similar high-risk perceptions involve pests and diseases in both regions. Altiplano climate projections for end-of-century highlights include increases in temperature, extreme event frequency, change in the timing of rainfall, and reduction of soil humidity. Successful adaptation to these changes will require the development of links between the knowledge systems of producers and scientists. Two-way participatory approaches to develop capacity and information that involve decision makers and scientists are appropriate approaches in this context of increased risk, uncertainty and vulnerability.

Brief Report: Investigating Uncertainty in the Minimum Mortality Temperature: Methods and Application to 52 Spanish Cities.

PubMed

Tobías, Aurelio; Armstrong, Ben; Gasparrini, Antonio

2017-01-01

The minimum mortality temperature from J- or U-shaped curves varies across cities with different climates. This variation conveys information on adaptation, but ability to characterize is limited by the absence of a method to describe uncertainty in estimated minimum mortality temperatures. We propose an approximate parametric bootstrap estimator of confidence interval (CI) and standard error (SE) for the minimum mortality temperature from a temperature-mortality shape estimated by splines. The coverage of the estimated CIs was close to nominal value (95%) in the datasets simulated, although SEs were slightly high. Applying the method to 52 Spanish provincial capital cities showed larger minimum mortality temperatures in hotter cities, rising almost exactly at the same rate as annual mean temperature. The method proposed for computing CIs and SEs for minimums from spline curves allows comparing minimum mortality temperatures in different cities and investigating their associations with climate properly, allowing for estimation uncertainty.

Sahelian springtime heat waves and their evolution over the past 60 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barbier, Jessica; Guichard, Françoise; Bouniol, Dominique; Couvreux, Fleur; Roehrig, Romain

2017-04-01

The Sahel is a semi-arid region which experiences very high temperature both during day- and night-times: monthly-mean temperatures in Spring typically oscillate between 30 and 40°C. At the same time a strong climatic warming has been observed over the past 60 years in this region: it reaches +1,5°C over April-May. Thus heat waves in this region have severe impacts on health, ecosystem, agriculture and more broadly economical activities, which will probably worsen in the context of climate change. However, heat waves in the Sahel remain poorly studied. The present work documents Sahelian heat waves and assesses their evolution across the last 60 years. Properties of heat waves are sensitive to the way they are detected. Here, we use a methodology based on anomalies that allows to filter the seasonal, inter-annual and climatic evolutions, using a percentile-type threshold. It is applied separately to daily maximum and minimum temperatures and leads to two types of heat waves: day- and night-time ones. This separation matters because physical processes linked to minimum and maximum temperatures can be quite distinct. The changes in both types of heat wave were studied over the period 1950-2012 using the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature gridded product: several heat wave characteristics were investigated, including morphological ones such as the length and the spatial extent of the event, the heat wave intensity and the associated warming trends. We found no significant trends in the frequency, duration and spatial extent of both types of heat waves, while on the other hand their maximum and minimum temperatures displayed significant positive trends. They were mainly explained by the regional warming. By contrast, with a standard climatic heat index using percentile-threshold on raw temperatures, both day- and night-time heat wave frequencies were increasing, and while the day-time heat waves were getting longer and larger, the night-time heat waves were getting hotter. The explanations for the differences between the heat indexes will be discussed. The ability of the three reanalyses ERA-Interim, NCEP2 and MERRA to reproduce Sahelian heat wave properties and their associated trends was further assessed on the period 1979-2010. At this shorter scale, we did not find any significant heat wave trend. Furthermore, reanalyses strongly differed in the representation of the heat wave inter-annual variability. These results raise concern about the utilization of meteorological reanalyses for the study of heat wave trends in West Africa.

Regional Climate Model sesitivity to different parameterizations schemes with WRF over Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

García-Valdecasas Ojeda, Matilde; Raquel Gámiz-Fortis, Sonia; Hidalgo-Muñoz, Jose Manuel; Argüeso, Daniel; Castro-Díez, Yolanda; Jesús Esteban-Parra, María

2015-04-01

The ability of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to simulate the regional climate depends on the selection of an adequate combination of parameterization schemes. This study assesses WRF sensitivity to different parameterizations using six different runs that combined three cumulus, two microphysics and three surface/planetary boundary layer schemes in a topographically complex region such as Spain, for the period 1995-1996. Each of the simulations spanned a period of two years, and were carried out at a spatial resolution of 0.088° over a domain encompassing the Iberian Peninsula and nested in the coarser EURO-CORDEX domain (0.44° resolution). The experiments were driven by Interim ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) data. In addition, two different spectral nudging configurations were also analysed. The simulated precipitation and maximum and minimum temperatures from WRF were compared with Spain02 version 4 observational gridded datasets. The comparison was performed at different time scales with the purpose of evaluating the model capability to capture mean values and high-order statistics. ERA-Interim data was also compared with observations to determine the improvement obtained using dynamical downscaling with respect to the driving data. For this purpose, several parameters were analysed by directly comparing grid-points. On the other hand, the observational gridded data were grouped using a multistep regionalization to facilitate the comparison in term of monthly annual cycle and the percentiles of daily values analysed. The results confirm that no configuration performs best, but some combinations that produce better results could be chosen. Concerning temperatures, WRF provides an improvement over ERA-Interim. Overall, model outputs reduce the biases and the RMSE for monthly-mean maximum and minimum temperatures and are higher correlated with observations than ERA-Interim. The analysis shows that the Yonsei University planetary boundary layer scheme is the most appropriate parameterization in term of temperatures because it better describes monthly minimum temperatures and seems to perform well for maximum temperatures. Regarding precipitation, ERA-Interim time series are slightly higher correlated with observations than WRF, but the bias and the RMSE are largely worse. These results also suggest that CAM V.5.1 2-moment 5-class microphysics schemes should not be used due to the computational cost with no apparent gain with respect to simpler schemes such as WRF single-moment 3-class. For the convection scheme, this study suggests that Betts-Miller-Janjic scheme is an appropriate choice due to its robustness and Kain-Fritsch cumulus scheme should not be used over this region. KEY WORDS: Regional climate modelling, physics schemes, parameterizations, WRF. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This work has been financed by the projects P11-RNM-7941 (Junta de Andalucía-Spain) and CGL2013-48539-R (MINECO-Spain, FEDER).

Tendencies of extreme values on rainfall and temperature and its relationship with teleconnection patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taboada, J. J.; Cabrejo, A.; Guarin, D.; Ramos, A. M.

2009-04-01

It is now very well established that yearly averaged temperatures are increasing due to anthropogenic climate change. In the area of Galicia (NW Spain) this trend has also been determined. Rainfall does not show a clear tendency in its yearly accumulated values. The aim of this work is to study different extreme indices of rainfall and temperatures analysing variability and possible trends associated to climate change. Station data for the study was provided by the CLIMA database of the regional government of Galicia (NW Spain). The definition of the extreme indices was taken from the joint CCl/CLIVAR/JCOMM Expert Team (ET) on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) This group has defined a set of standard extreme values to simplify intercomparison of data from different regions of the world. For the temperatures in the period 1960-2006, results show a significant increase of the number of days with maximum temperatures above the 90th percentile. Furthermore, a significant decrease of the days with maximum temperatures below the 10th percentile has been found. The tendencies of minimum temperatures are reverse: fewer nights with minimum temperatures below 10th percentile, and more with minimum temperatures above 90th percentile. Those tendencies can be observed all over the year, but are more pronounced in summer. This trend is expected to continue in the next decades because of anthropogenic climate change. We have also calculated the relationship between the above mentioned extreme values and different teleconnection patterns appearing in the North Atlantic area. Results show that local tendencies are associated with trends of EA (Eastern Atlantic) and SCA (Scandinavian) patterns. NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) has also some relationship with these tendencies, but only related with cold days and nights in winter. Rainfall index do not show any clear tendency on the annual scale. Nevertheless, the count of days when precipitation is greater than 20mm (R20mm) and the total precipitation when rainfall is greater than 95th percentile (R95pTOT) diminishes in winter and spring, but increases in autumn. This trend is related with NAO in winter and spring and with SCA in autumn.

A biometeorology study of climate and heat-related morbidity in Phoenix from 2001 to 2006

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Golden, Jay S.; Hartz, Donna; Brazel, Anthony; Luber, George; Phelan, Patrick

2008-07-01

Heat waves kill more people in the United States than hurricanes, tornadoes, earthquakes, and floods combined. Recently, international attention focused on the linkages and impacts of human health vulnerability to urban climate when Western Europe experienced over 30,000 excess deaths during the heat waves of the summer of 2003—surpassing the 1995 heat wave in Chicago, Illinois, that killed 739. While Europe dealt with heat waves, in the United States, Phoenix, Arizona, established a new all-time high minimum temperature for the region on July 15, 2003. The low temperature of 35.5°C (96°F) was recorded, breaking the previous all-time high minimum temperature record of 33.8°C (93°F). While an extensive literature on heat-related mortality exists, greater understanding of influences of heat-related morbidity is required due to climate change and rapid urbanization influences. We undertook an analysis of 6 years (2001 2006) of heat-related dispatches through the Phoenix Fire Department regional dispatch center to examine temporal, climatic and other non-spatial influences contributing to high-heat-related medical dispatch events. The findings identified that there were no significant variations in day-of-week dispatch events. The greatest incidence of heat-related medical dispatches occurred between the times of peak solar irradiance and maximum diurnal temperature, and during times of elevated human comfort indices (combined temperature and relative humidity).

A biometeorology study of climate and heat-related morbidity in Phoenix from 2001 to 2006.

PubMed

Golden, Jay S; Hartz, Donna; Brazel, Anthony; Luber, George; Phelan, Patrick

2008-07-01

Heat waves kill more people in the United States than hurricanes, tornadoes, earthquakes, and floods combined. Recently, international attention focused on the linkages and impacts of human health vulnerability to urban climate when Western Europe experienced over 30,000 excess deaths during the heat waves of the summer of 2003-surpassing the 1995 heat wave in Chicago, Illinois, that killed 739. While Europe dealt with heat waves, in the United States, Phoenix, Arizona, established a new all-time high minimum temperature for the region on July 15, 2003. The low temperature of 35.5 degrees C (96 degrees F) was recorded, breaking the previous all-time high minimum temperature record of 33.8 degrees C (93 degrees F). While an extensive literature on heat-related mortality exists, greater understanding of influences of heat-related morbidity is required due to climate change and rapid urbanization influences. We undertook an analysis of 6 years (2001-2006) of heat-related dispatches through the Phoenix Fire Department regional dispatch center to examine temporal, climatic and other non-spatial influences contributing to high-heat-related medical dispatch events. The findings identified that there were no significant variations in day-of-week dispatch events. The greatest incidence of heat-related medical dispatches occurred between the times of peak solar irradiance and maximum diurnal temperature, and during times of elevated human comfort indices (combined temperature and relative humidity).

Effect of solar activity on the repetitiveness of some meteorological phenomena

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Todorović, Nedeljko; Vujović, Dragana

2014-12-01

In this paper we research the relationship between solar activity and the weather on Earth. This research is based on the assumption that every ejection of magnetic field energy and particles from the Sun (also known as Solar wind) has direct effects on the Earth's weather. The impact of coronal holes and active regions on cold air advection (cold fronts, precipitation, and temperature decrease on the surface and higher layers) in the Belgrade region (Serbia) was analyzed. Some active regions and coronal holes appear to be in a geo-effective position nearly every 27 days, which is the duration of a solar rotation. A similar period of repetitiveness (27-29 days) of the passage of the cold front, and maximum and minimum temperatures measured at surface and at levels of 850 and 500 hPa were detected. We found that 10-12 days after Solar wind velocity starts significantly increasing, we could expect the passage of a cold front. After eight days, the maximum temperatures in the Belgrade region are measured, and it was found that their minimum values appear after 12-16 days. The maximum amount of precipitation occurs 14 days after Solar wind is observed. A recurring period of nearly 27 days of different phases of development for hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Wilma was found. This analysis confirmed that the intervals of time between two occurrences of some particular meteorological parameter correlate well with Solar wind and A index.

The effect of birthplace on heat tolerance and mortality in Milan, Italy, 1980 1989

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vigotti, Maria Angela; Muggeo, Vito M. R.; Cusimano, Rosanna

2006-07-01

The temperature mortality relationship follows a well-known J-V shaped pattern with mortality excesses recorded at cold and hot temperatures, and minimum at some optimal value, referred as Minimum Mortality Temperature (MMT). As the MMT, which is used to measure the population heat-tolerance, is higher for people living in warmer places, it has been argued that populations will adapt to temperature changes. We tested this notion by taking advantage of a huge migratory flow that occurred in Italy during the 1950s, when a large number of unemployed people moved from the southern to the industrializing north-western regions. We have analyzed mortality temperature relationships in Milan residents, split by groups identified by area of birth. In order to obtain estimates of the temperature-related risks, log-linear models have been used to fit daily death count data as a function of different explanatory variables. Results suggest that mortality risks differ by birthplace, regardless of the place of residence, namely heat tolerance in adult life could be modulated by outdoor temperature experienced early in life. This indicates that no complete adaptation might occur with rising external environmental temperatures.

Climate trends of the North American prairie pothole region 1906-2000

USGS Publications Warehouse

Millett, B.; Johnson, W.C.; Guntenspergen, G.

2009-01-01

The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) is unique to North America. Its millions of wetlands and abundant ecosystem goods and services are highly sensitive to wide variations of temperature and precipitation in time and space characteristic of a strongly continental climate. Precipitation and temperature gradients across the PPR are orthogonal to each other. Precipitation nearly triples from west to east from approximately 300 mm/year to 900 mm/year, while mean annual temperature ranges from approximately 1°C in the north to nearly 10°C in the south. Twentieth-century weather records for 18 PPR weather stations representing 6 ecoregions revealed several trends. The climate generally has been getting warmer and wetter and the diurnal temperature range has decreased. Minimum daily temperatures warmed by 1.0°C, while maximum daily temperatures cooled by 0.15°C. Minimum temperature warmed more in winter than in summer, while maximum temperature cooled in summer and warmed in winter. Average annual precipitation increased by 49 mm or 9%. Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) trends reflected increasing moisture availability for most weather stations; however, several stations in the western Canadian Prairies recorded effectively drier conditions. The east-west moisture gradient steepened during the twentieth century with stations in the west becoming drier and stations in the east becoming wetter. If the moisture gradient continues to steepen, the area of productive wetland ecosystems will shrink. Consequences for wetlands would be especially severe if the future climate does not provide supplemental moisture to offset higher evaporative demand.

Impact assessment of recent climate change on rice yields in the Heilongjiang Reclamation Area of north-east China.

PubMed

Zhou, Yang; Li, Ning; Dong, Guanpeng; Wu, Wenxiang

2013-08-30

Investigating the degree to which climate change may have impacted on rice yields can provide an insight into how to adapt to climate change in the future. Meteorological and rice yield data over the period 1960-2009 from the Heilongjiang Reclamation Area of north-east China (HRANC) were used to explore the possible impacts of climate change on rice yields at sub-regional scale. Results showed that a warming trend was obvious in the HRANC and discernible climate fluctuations and yield variations on inter-annual scale were detected to have occurred in the 1980s and 1990s, respectively. Statistically positive correlation was observed between growing season temperature and rice yields, with an increase rate by approximately 3.60% for each 1°C rise in the minimum temperature during growing season. Such findings are consistent with the current mainstream view that warming climate may exert positive impacts on crop yields in the middle and higher latitude regions. Our study indicated that the growing season minimum temperature was a major driver of all the climatic factors to the recent increase trends in rice yield in HRANC over the last five decades. © 2013 Society of Chemical Industry.

Minimum maximum temperature gradient coil design.

PubMed

While, Peter T; Poole, Michael S; Forbes, Larry K; Crozier, Stuart

2013-08-01

Ohmic heating is a serious problem in gradient coil operation. A method is presented for redesigning cylindrical gradient coils to operate at minimum peak temperature, while maintaining field homogeneity and coil performance. To generate these minimaxT coil windings, an existing analytic method for simulating the spatial temperature distribution of single layer gradient coils is combined with a minimax optimization routine based on sequential quadratic programming. Simulations are provided for symmetric and asymmetric gradient coils that show considerable improvements in reducing maximum temperature over existing methods. The winding patterns of the minimaxT coils were found to be heavily dependent on the assumed thermal material properties and generally display an interesting "fish-eye" spreading of windings in the dense regions of the coil. Small prototype coils were constructed and tested for experimental validation and these demonstrate that with a reasonable estimate of material properties, thermal performance can be improved considerably with negligible change to the field error or standard figures of merit. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Statistical physics when the minimum temperature is not absolute zero

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chung, Won Sang; Hassanabadi, Hassan

2018-04-01

In this paper, the nonzero minimum temperature is considered based on the third law of thermodynamics and existence of the minimal momentum. From the assumption of nonzero positive minimum temperature in nature, we deform the definitions of some thermodynamical quantities and investigate nonzero minimum temperature correction to the well-known thermodynamical problems.

Impacts of urbanization and agricultural development on observed changes in surface air temperature over mainland China from 1961 to 2006

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Songjun; Tang, Qiuhong; Xu, Di; Yang, Zhiyong

2018-03-01

A large proportion of meteorological stations in mainland China are located in or near either urban or agricultural lands that were established throughout the period of rapid urbanization and agricultural development (1961-2006). The extent of the impacts of urbanization and agricultural development on observed air temperature changes across different climate regions remains elusive. This study evaluates the surface air temperature trends observed by 598 meteorological stations in relation to the urbanization and agricultural development over the arid northwest, semi-arid intermediate, and humid southeast regions of mainland China based on linear regressions of temperature trends on the fractions of urban and cultivated land within a 3-km radius of the stations. In all three regions, the stations surrounded by large urban land tend to experience rapid warming, especially at minimum temperature. This dependence is particularly significant in the southeast region, which experiences the most intense urbanization. In the northwest and intermediate regions, stations surrounded by large cultivated land encounter less warming during the main growing season, especially at the maximum temperature changes. These findings suggest that the observed surface warming has been affected by urbanization and agricultural development represented by urban and cultivated land fractions around stations in with land cover changes in their proximity and should thus be considered when analyzing regional temperature changes in mainland China.

Variability of temperature properties over Kenya based on observed and reanalyzed datasets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ongoma, Victor; Chen, Haishan; Gao, Chujie; Sagero, Phillip Obaigwa

2017-08-01

Updated information on trends of climate extremes is central in the assessment of climate change impacts. This work examines the trends in mean, diurnal temperature range (DTR), maximum and minimum temperatures, 1951-2012 and the recent (1981-2010) extreme temperature events over Kenya. The study utilized daily observed and reanalyzed monthly mean, minimum, and maximum temperature datasets. The analysis was carried out based on a set of nine indices recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). The trend of the mean and the extreme temperature was determined using Mann-Kendall rank test, linear regression analysis, and Sen's slope estimator. December-February (DJF) season records high temperature while June-August (JJA) experiences the least temperature. The observed rate of warming is + 0.15 °C/decade. However, DTR does not show notable annual trend. Both seasons show an overall warming trend since the early 1970s with abrupt and significant changes happening around the early 1990s. The warming is more significant in the highland regions as compared to their lowland counterparts. There is increase variance in temperature. The percentage of warm days and warm nights is observed to increase, a further affirmation of warming. This work is a synoptic scale study that exemplifies how seasonal and decadal analyses, together with the annual assessments, are important in the understanding of the temperature variability which is vital in vulnerability and adaptation studies at a local/regional scale. However, following the quality of observed data used herein, there remains need for further studies on the subject using longer and more data to avoid generalizations made in this study.

The association of remotely-sensed outdoor temperature with blood pressure levels in REGARDS: a cross-sectional study of a large, national cohort of African-American and white participants

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Evidence is mounting regarding the clinically significant effect of temperature on blood pressure. Methods In this cross-sectional study the authors obtained minimum and maximum temperatures and their respective previous week variances at the geographic locations of the self-reported residences of 26,018 participants from a national cohort of blacks and whites, aged 45+. Linear regression of data from 20,623 participants was used in final multivariable models to determine if these temperature measures were associated with levels of systolic or diastolic blood pressure, and whether these relations were modified by stroke-risk region, race, education, income, sex hypertensive medication status, or age. Results After adjustment for confounders, same-day maximum temperatures 20°F lower had significant associations with 1.4 mmHg (95% CI: 1.0, 1.9) higher systolic and 0.5 mmHg (95% CI: 0.3, 0.8) higher diastolic blood pressures. Same-day minimum temperatures 20°F lower had a significant association with 0.7 mmHg (95% CI: 0.3, 1.0) higher systolic blood pressures but no significant association with diastolic blood pressure differences. Maximum and minimum previous-week temperature variabilities showed significant but weak relationships with blood pressures. Parameter estimates showed effect modification of negligible magnitude. Conclusions This study found significant associations between outdoor temperature and blood pressure levels, which remained after adjustment for various confounders including season. This relationship showed negligible effect modification. PMID:21247466

The effect of warmer winters on the demography of an outbreak insect is hidden by intraspecific competition

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Goodsman, Devin W.; Grosklos, Guenchik; Aukema, Brian H.

Warmer climates are predicted to increase bark beetle outbreak frequency, severity, and range. Even in favorable climates, however, outbreaks can decelerate due to resource limitation, which necessitates the inclusion of competition for limited resources in analyses of climatic effects on populations. We evaluated several hypotheses of how climate impacts mountain pine beetle reproduction using an extensive 9-year dataset, in which nearly 10,000 trees were sampled across a region of approximately 90,000 km 2, that was recently invaded by the mountain pine beetle in Alberta, Canada. Our analysis supports the hypothesis of a positive effect of warmer winter temperatures on mountainmore » pine beetle overwinter survival and provides evidence that the increasing trend in minimum winter temperatures over time in North America is an important driver of increased mountain pine beetle reproduction across the region. Although we demonstrate a consistent effect of warmer minimum winter temperatures on mountain pine beetle reproductive rates that is evident at the landscape and regional scales, this effect is overwhelmed by the effect of competition for resources within trees at the site level. Our results suggest that detection of the effects of a warming climate on bark beetle populations at small spatial scales may be difficult without accounting for negative density dependence due to competition for resources.« less

The effect of warmer winters on the demography of an outbreak insect is hidden by intraspecific competition.

PubMed

Goodsman, Devin W; Grosklos, Guenchik; Aukema, Brian H; Whitehouse, Caroline; Bleiker, Katherine P; McDowell, Nate G; Middleton, Richard S; Xu, Chonggang

2018-05-29

Warmer climates are predicted to increase bark beetle outbreak frequency, severity, and range. Even in favorable climates, however, outbreaks can decelerate due to resource limitation, which necessitates the inclusion of competition for limited resources in analyses of climatic effects on populations. We evaluated several hypotheses of how climate impacts mountain pine beetle reproduction using an extensive 9-year dataset, in which nearly 10,000 trees were sampled across a region of approximately 90,000 km 2 , that was recently invaded by the mountain pine beetle in Alberta, Canada. Our analysis supports the hypothesis of a positive effect of warmer winter temperatures on mountain pine beetle overwinter survival and provides evidence that the increasing trend in minimum winter temperatures over time in North America is an important driver of increased mountain pine beetle reproduction across the region. Although we demonstrate a consistent effect of warmer minimum winter temperatures on mountain pine beetle reproductive rates that is evident at the landscape and regional scales, this effect is overwhelmed by the effect of competition for resources within trees at the site level. Our results suggest that detection of the effects of a warming climate on bark beetle populations at small spatial scales may be difficult without accounting for negative density dependence due to competition for resources. © 2018 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The effect of warmer winters on the demography of an outbreak insect is hidden by intraspecific competition

DOE PAGES

Goodsman, Devin W.; Grosklos, Guenchik; Aukema, Brian H.; ...

2018-05-29

Warmer climates are predicted to increase bark beetle outbreak frequency, severity, and range. Even in favorable climates, however, outbreaks can decelerate due to resource limitation, which necessitates the inclusion of competition for limited resources in analyses of climatic effects on populations. We evaluated several hypotheses of how climate impacts mountain pine beetle reproduction using an extensive 9-year dataset, in which nearly 10,000 trees were sampled across a region of approximately 90,000 km 2, that was recently invaded by the mountain pine beetle in Alberta, Canada. Our analysis supports the hypothesis of a positive effect of warmer winter temperatures on mountainmore » pine beetle overwinter survival and provides evidence that the increasing trend in minimum winter temperatures over time in North America is an important driver of increased mountain pine beetle reproduction across the region. Although we demonstrate a consistent effect of warmer minimum winter temperatures on mountain pine beetle reproductive rates that is evident at the landscape and regional scales, this effect is overwhelmed by the effect of competition for resources within trees at the site level. Our results suggest that detection of the effects of a warming climate on bark beetle populations at small spatial scales may be difficult without accounting for negative density dependence due to competition for resources.« less

Developing a phenological model for grapevine to assess future frost risk in Luxembourg

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caffarra, A.; Molitor, D.; Pertot, I.; Sinigoy, P.; Junk, J.

2012-04-01

Late frost damage represents a significant hazard to grape production in cool climate viticulture regions such as Luxembourg. The main aim of our study is to analyze the frequency of these events for the Luxembourg's winegrowing region in the future. Spring frost injuries on grape may occur when young green parts are exposed to air temperature below 0°C. The potential risk is determined by: (i) minimum air temperature conditions and the (ii) the timing of bud burst. Therefore, we developed and validated a model for budburst of the grapevine (*Vitis vinifera)* cultivar Rivaner, the most grown local variety, based on multi-annual data from 7 different sites across Europe and the US. An advantage of this approach is, that it could be applied to a wide range of climate conditions. Higher spring temperatures were projected for the future and could lead to earlier dates of budburst as well as earlier dates of last frost events in the season. However, so far it is unknown if this will increase or decrease the risk of severe late frost damages for Luxembourg's winegrowing region. To address this question results of 10 regional climate change projections from the FP6 ENSEMBLES project (spatial resolution = 25km; A1B emission scenario) were combined with the new bud burst model. The use of a multi model ensemble of climate change projections allows for a better quantification of the uncertainties. A bias corrections scheme, based on local observations, was applied to the model output. Projected daily minimum air temperatures, up to 2098, were compared to the projected date of bud burst in order to quantify the future frost risk for Luxembourg.

The Enigma of Io's Warm Polar Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matson, D. L.; Veeder, G. J.; Davies, A. G.; Johnson, T. V.; Blaney, D. L.

Io's polar temperatures are higher than expected for any passive surface. Data from the Galileo Photopolarimeter (PPR) show that minimum nighttime temperatures are in the range of 90 -95 K virtually everywhere [1]. This is particularly striking at high latitudes, within the polar regions. Furthermore, the distribution of minimum night- time temperatures across the surface of Io (away from the sunset terminator) shows little variation with latitude and/or time of night [1,2,3,4]. We consider suggested mechanisms for this elevated-minimum-temperature effect: 1) Polar terrain is warmer than expected because it is rough, 2) Higher latitudes have lower albedos, 3) Thermal inertia increases with latitude, and 4) Cooling lava controls nighttime temperatures. We find that the passive mechanisms fail. This leads to the suggestion that most of Io is covered by cooling lavas. In this context, lava cools to the observed temperature range on time scales of ten to ten thousand years depending upon the nature of the eruption scenario(s). Separately, analysis of thermal anomalies reveals that the trend of the data (log-cumulative-surface-area versus log-temperature) extrapolated to the entire surface area of Io predicts large- scale, ambient, temperatures in the 90-95 K range. Recent Galileo observations showing a myriad of small volcanic hot spots [7] provide strong support for the paradigm of ubiquitous volcanic activity with global, cooling-lava fields on Io. While explaining the high nighttime polar temperatures, this model displaces the previous explaination for Io's anomalously low 20 micron daytime emission. Explaining this emission is an important focus for current work. Warm polar regions appear to require some heat flow through very large areas in addition to the small, hot anomalies already known. This has implications for raising Io's global heat flow. Presently, the heat flow is constrained between a lower bound of ~2.5 W m -2[5] and an upper bound of ~13 W m -2[3,4,6]. References: [1] Spencer J. R. et al. (2000) Science, 288, 1198-1201. [2] Rathbun J. A. et al. (2001) EOS Trans. AGU, 82, P11A-11. [3] Matson D. L. et al. (2001) LPSC XXXII, 1938. [4] Matson D. L. et al. (2001) JGR, in press [5] Veeder G. J. et al. (1994) JGR, 99, 17095- 17162. [6] Matson D. L. et al. (2000) EOS, 81, F788. [7] Lopes-Gautier R. et al. (2000) Science, 288, 1201-1204. This work was carried out at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, under contract to NASA.

Magnetic and transport properties of amorphous Ce-Al alloy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amakai, Yusuke; Murayama, Shigeyuki; Momono, Naoki; Takano, Hideaki; Kuwai, Tomohiko

2018-05-01

Amorphous (a-)Ce50Al50 has been prepared by DC high-rate sputter method. The structure of the obtained sample has been confirmed to have an amorphous structure because there are no Bragg peaks in the X-ray diffraction measurement and have a clear exothermic peak by the differential scanning calorimetry measurement. We have measured the resistivity ρ, magnetic susceptibility χ, specific heat Cp and thermoelectric power S for a-Ce50Al50. The temperature dependence of ρ exhibits a small temperature dependence less than 10% in the whole temperature region. χ follows a Curie-Weiss behavior in the high-temperature region of T>90 K. The effective paramagnetic moment peff, estimated from C is 2.18 μB/Ce-atom. The low-temperature Cp/T increases rapidly with decreasing temperature and tends to a saturation. S(T) exhibits negative values in a wide temperature region. A minimum of S appear at around 60 K, and S decreases linearly with decreasing temperature down to 10 K. The low-temperature S is almost 0 μV/K down to 2 K. From these results, we have pointed out that present a-Ce50Al50 would be an incoherent Kondo material.

The energy balance of the solar transition region

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jordan, C.

1980-01-01

It is shown how the observed distribution of the emission measure with temperature can be used to limit the range of energy deposition functions suitable for heating the solar transition region and inner corona. The minimum energy loss solution is considered in view of the work by Hearn (1975) in order to establish further scaling laws between the transition region pressure, the maximum coronal temperature and the parameter giving the absolute value of the emission measure. Also discussed is the absence of a static energy balance at the base of the transition region in terms of measurable atmospheric parameters, and the condition for a static energy balance is given. In addition, the possible role of the emission from He II in stabilizing the atmosphere by providing enhanced radiation loss is considered.

Inflight fuel tank temperature survey data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pasion, A. J.

1979-01-01

Statistical summaries of the fuel and air temperature data for twelve different routes and for different aircraft models (B747, B707, DC-10 and DC-8), are given. The minimum fuel, total air and static air temperature expected for a 0.3% probability were summarized in table form. Minimum fuel temperature extremes agreed with calculated predictions and the minimum fuel temperature did not necessarily equal the minimum total air temperature even for extreme weather, long range flights.

Comprehensive Ionospheric Polar and Auroral Observations for Solar Minimum of Cycle 23/24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sojka, Jan J.; Nicolls, Michael; van Eyken, Anthony; Heinselman, Craig

Only the incoherent scatter radar (ISR) is able to simultaneously measure full profiles of elec-tron density, ion temperature, and electron temperatures through the E-and F-layers of the terrestrial ionosphere. Historically ISR's have been operated for periods much less than a month. Hence, their measurements do not constitute a continuous sequence from which quiet, disturbed, and storm periods can reliably be discerned. This is particularly true in the auroral and polar regions. During the International Polar Year (IPY) two ISRs achieved close to 24/7 continuous observations. This presentation describes their data sets and specifically how they can provide the IRI with a fiduciary E-and F-region ionosphere descriptions for solar minimum conditions at auroral and polar cap locations. The ionospheric description being electron den-sity, ion temperature, electron temperature, and even molecular ion composition profiles from as low as 90 km extending several scale heights above the F-layer peak. The auroral location is Poker Flat in Alaska at 65.4° N, 147.5° W where the NSF's new Poker Flat Incoherent Scatter Radar (PFISR) is located. During solar minimum conditions this location is in the auroral region for most of the day and is at mid-latitudes, equatorward of the cusp, for about 4 to 8 hours per day dependent upon geomagnetic activity. In contrast the polar location is Svalbard, at 78° N, 16° E where the EISCAT Svalbard Radar (ESR) is located. For most of the day the ESR is in the Northern Polar Cap often with a noon sector passage through the dayside cusp. Of unique relevance to IRI is that these extended observations have enabled the ionospheric morphology to be demarked between quiet and disturbed. During the IPY year, 1 March 2007 to 29 February 2008, a total of 50 solar wind corotating interaction regions (CIRs) impacted geospace. Each CIR has a one-to-three day geomagnetic disturbance that is observed in the ISR auroral and polar observations. Hence, this data set enables the quiet-background ionosphere to be established as a function of season and local time. This quiet-background ionosphere has the unique attribute that it has self-consistent altitude profiles of the density and the temper-ature. This we believe is a true fiduciary reference for the IRI in a high latitude region, that is otherwise particularly difficult to quantify.

Determining the minimum ripening time of artisanal Minas cheese, a traditional Brazilian cheese

PubMed Central

Martins, José M.; Galinari, Éder; Pimentel-Filho, Natan J.; Ribeiro, José I.; Furtado, Mauro M.; Ferreira, Célia L.L.F.

2015-01-01

Physical, physicochemical, and microbiological changes were monitored in 256 samples of artisanal Minas cheese from eight producers from Serro region (Minas Gerais, Brazil) for 64 days of ripening to determine the minimum ripening time for the cheese to reach the safe microbiological limits established by Brazilian legislation. The cheeses were produced between dry season (April–September) and rainy season (October–March); 128 cheeses were ripened at room temperature (25 ± 4 °C), and 128 were ripened under refrigeration (8 ± 1 °C), as a control. No Listeria monocytogenes was found, but one cheese under refrigeration had Salmonella at first 15 days of ripening. However, after 22 days, the pathogen was not detected. Seventeen days was the minimum ripening time at room temperature to reduce at safe limits of total coliforms > 1000 cfu.g −1 ), Escherichia coli and Staphylococcus aureus (> 100 cfu.g −1 ) in both periods of manufacture. Otherwise under refrigeration, as expected, the minimum ripening time was longer, 33 days in the dry season and 63 days in the rainy season. To sum up, we suggest that the ripening of artisanal Minas cheese be done at room temperature, since this condition shortens the time needed to reach the microbiological quality that falls within the safety parameters required by Brazilian law, and at the same time maintain the appearance and flavor characteristics of this traditional cheese. PMID:26221111

Chromospheric Signatures of the Subdued Cycle 23/24 Solar Minimum in Microwaves

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yashiro, S.; Makela, P.; Shibasaki, K.; Hathaway, D.

2011-01-01

Coronal holes appear brighter than the quiet Sun in microwave images, with a brightness enhancement of 500 to 2000 K. The brightness enhancement corresponds to the upper chromosphere, where the plasma temperature is about 10000 K. We constructed a microwave butterfly diagram using the synoptic images obtained by the Nobeyama radio-heliograph (NoRH) showing the evolution of the polar and low latitude brightness temperature. While the polar brightness reveals the chromospheric conditions, the low latitude brightness is attributed to active regions in the corona. When we compared the microwave butterfly diagram with the magnetic butterfly diagram, we found a good correlation between the microwave brightness enhancement and the polar field strength. The microwave butterfly diagram covers part of solar cycle 22, whole of cycle 23, and part of cycle 24, thus enabling comparison between the cycle 23/24 and cycle 22/23 minima. The microwave brightness during the cycle 23/24 minimum was found to be lower than that during the cycle 22/23 minimum by approx.250 K. The reduced brightness temperature is consistent with the reduced polar field strength during the cycle 23/24 minimum seen in the magnetic butterfly diagram. We suggest that the microwave brightness at the solar poles is a good indicator of the speed of the solar wind sampled by Ulysses at high latitudes.

Daily temperature records from a mesonet in the foothills of the Canadian Rocky Mountains, 2005-2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wood, Wendy H.; Marshall, Shawn J.; Whitehead, Terri L.; Fargey, Shannon E.

2018-03-01

Near-surface air temperatures were monitored from 2005 to 2010 in a mesoscale network of 230 sites in the foothills of the Rocky Mountains in southwestern Alberta, Canada. The monitoring network covers a range of elevations from 890 to 2880 m above sea level and an area of about 18 000 km2, sampling a variety of topographic settings and surface environments with an average spatial density of one station per 78 km2. This paper presents the multiyear temperature dataset from this study, with minimum, maximum, and mean daily temperature data available at https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.880611. In this paper, we describe the quality control and processing methods used to clean and filter the data and assess its accuracy. Overall data coverage for the study period is 91 %. We introduce a weather-system-dependent gap-filling technique to estimate the missing 9 % of data. Monthly and seasonal distributions of minimum, maximum, and mean daily temperature lapse rates are shown for the region.

Attributes for MRB_E2RF1 Catchments by Major River Basins in the Conterminous United States: 30-Year Average Daily Minimum Temperature, 1971-2000

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wieczorek, Michael; LaMotte, Andrew E.

2010-01-01

This tabular data set represents thecatchment-average for the 30-year (1971-2000) average daily minimum temperature in Celsius multiplied by 100 compiled for every MRB_E2RF1 catchment of selected Major River Basins (MRBs, Crawford and others, 2006). The source data were the United States Average Monthly or Annual Minimum Temperature, 1971 - 2000 raster data set produced by the PRISM Group at Oregon State University. The MRB_E2RF1 catchments are based on a modified version of the Environmental Protection Agency's (USEPA) ERF1_2 and include enhancements to support national and regional-scale surface-water quality modeling (Nolan and others, 2002; Brakebill and others, 2011). Data were compiled for every MRB_E2RF1 catchment for the conterminous United States covering New England and Mid-Atlantic (MRB1), South Atlantic-Gulf and Tennessee (MRB2), the Great Lakes, Ohio, Upper Mississippi, and Souris-Red-Rainy (MRB3), the Missouri (MRB4), the Lower Mississippi, Arkansas-White-Red, and Texas-Gulf (MRB5), the Rio Grande, Colorado, and the Great basin (MRB6), the Pacific Northwest (MRB7) river basins, and California (MRB8).

Catchments by Major River Basins in the Conterminous United States: 30-Year Average Daily Minimum Temperature, 1971-2000

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wieczorek, Michael; LaMotte, Andrew E.

2010-01-01

This tabular data set represents thecatchment-average for the 30-year (1971-2000) average daily minimum temperature in Celsius multiplied by 100 compiled for every MRB_E2RF1 catchment of selected Major River Basins (MRBs, Crawford and others, 2006). The source data were the United States Average Monthly or Annual Minimum Temperature, 1971 - 2000 raster data set produced by the PRISM Group at Oregon State University. The MRB_E2RF1 catchments are based on a modified version of the Environmental Protection Agency's (USEPA) ERF1_2 and include enhancements to support national and regional-scale surface-water quality modeling (Nolan and others, 2002; Brakebill and others, 2011). Data were compiled for every MRB_E2RF1 catchment for the conterminous United States covering New England and Mid-Atlantic (MRB1), South Atlantic-Gulf and Tennessee (MRB2), the Great Lakes, Ohio, Upper Mississippi, and Souris-Red-Rainy (MRB3), the Missouri (MRB4), the Lower Mississippi, Arkansas-White-Red, and Texas-Gulf (MRB5), the Rio Grande, Colorado, and the Great basin (MRB6), the Pacific Northwest (MRB7) river basins, and California (MRB8).

Trends in rainfall and temperature extremes in Morocco

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khomsi, K.; Mahe, G.; Tramblay, Y.; Sinan, M.; Snoussi, M.

2015-02-01

In Morocco, socioeconomic fields are vulnerable to weather extreme events. This work aims to analyze the frequency and the trends of temperature and rainfall extreme events in two contrasted Moroccan regions (the Tensift in the semi-arid South, and the Bouregreg in the sub-humid North), during the second half of the 20th century. This study considers long time series of daily extreme temperatures and rainfall, recorded in the stations of Marrakech and Safi for the Tensift region, and Kasba-Tadla and Rabat-Sale for the Bouregreg region, data from four other stations (Tanger, Fes, Agadir and Ouarzazate) from outside the regions were added. Extremes are defined by using as thresholds the 1st, 5th, 90th, 95th, and 99th percentiles. Results show upward trends in maximum and minimum temperatures of both regions and no generalized trends in rainfall amounts. Changes in cold events are larger than those for warm events, and the number of very cold events decrease significantly in the whole studied area. The southern region is the most affected with the changes of the temperature regime. Most of the trends found in rainfall heavy events are positive with weak magnitudes even though no statistically significant generalized trends could be identified during both seasons.

Potential impacts of a future Grand Solar Minimum on decadal regional climate change and interannual hemispherical climate variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spiegl, Tobias; Langematz, Ulrike

2016-04-01

The political, technical and socio-economic developments of the next decades will determine the magnitude of 21st century climate change, since they are inextricably linked to future anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. To assess the range of uncertainty that is related to these developments, it is common to assume different emission scenarios for 21st climate projections. While the uncertainties associated with the anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing have been studied intensely, the contribution of natural climate drivers (particularly solar variability) to recent and future climate change are subject of intense debate. The past 1,000 years featured at least 5 excursions (lasting 60-100 years) of exceptionally low solar activity, induced by a weak magnetic field of the Sun, so called Grand Solar Minima. While the global temperature response to such a decrease in solar activity is assumed to be rather small, nonlinear mechanisms in the climate system might amplify the regional temperature signal. This hypothesis is supported by the last Grand Solar Minimum (the Maunder Minimum, 1645-1715) which coincides with the Little Ice Age, an epoch which is characterized by severe cold and hardship over Europe, North America and Asia. The long-lasting minimum of Solar Cycle 23 as well as the overall weak maximum of Cycle 24 reveal the possibility for a return to Grand Solar Minimum conditions within the next decades. The quantification of the implications of such a projected decrease in solar forcing is of ultimate importance, given the on-going public discussion of the role of carbon dioxide emissions for global warming, and the possible role a cooling due to decreasing solar activity could be ascribed to. Since there is still no clear consensus about the actual strength of the Maunder Minimum, we used 3 acknowledged solar reconstruction datasets that show significant differences in both, total solar irradiance (TSI) and spectral irradiance (SSI) to simulate a future Grand Solar Minimum under RCP6.0 conditions. The results obtained were compared to a RCP6.0 simulation that was carried out using the CCMI recommendations for a 21st century solar forcing. We used the ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) chemistry-climate model that incorporates interactive ozone chemistry, a high-resolution shortwave radiation scheme, a high model top (0.01 hPa) and is coupled to a 3D ocean general circulation model. We focused on the regional responses to a future Grand Solar Minimum and interannual variability patterns (i.e. the Northern and Southern Annular Mode (NAM/SAM)).

The Peculiar Solar Minimum 23/24 Revealed by the Microwave Butterfly Diagram

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gopalswamy, Natchimuthuk; Yashiro, Seiji; Makela, Pertti; Shibasaki, Kiyoto; Hathaway, David

2010-01-01

The diminished polar magnetic field strength during the minimum between cycles 23 and 24 is also reflected in the thermal radio emission originating from the polar chromosphere. During solar minima, the polar corona has extended coronal holes containing intense unipolar flux. In microwave images, the coronal holes appear bright, with a brightness enhancement of 500 to 2000 K with respect to the quiet Sun. The brightness enhancement corresponds to the upper chromosphere, where the plasma temperature is approx.10000 K. We constructed a microwave butterfly diagram using the synoptic images obtained by the Nobeyama radioheliograph (NoRH) showing the evolution of the polar and low latitude brightness temperature. While the polar brightness reveals the chromospheric conditions, the low latitude brightness is attributed to active regions in the corona. When we compared the microwave butterfly diagram with the magnetic butterfly diagram, we found a good correlation between the microwave brightness enhancement and the polar field strength. The microwave butterfly diagram covers part of solar cycle 22, whole of cycle 23, and part of cycle 24, thus enabling comparison between the cycle 23/24 and cycle 22/23 minima. The microwave brightness during the cycle 23/24 minimum was found to be lower than that during the cycle 22/23 minimum by approx.250 K. The reduced brightness temperature is consistent with the reduced polar field strength during the cycle 23/24 minimum seen in the magnetic butterfly diagram. We suggest that the microwave brightness at the solar poles is a good indicator of the speed of the solar wind sampled by Ulysses at high latitudes..

Minimizing hot spot temperature in asymmetric gradient coil design.

PubMed

While, Peter T; Forbes, Larry K; Crozier, Stuart

2011-08-01

Heating caused by gradient coils is a considerable concern in the operation of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scanners. Hot spots can occur in regions where the gradient coil windings are closely spaced. These problem areas are particularly common in the design of gradient coils with asymmetrically located target regions. In this paper, an extension of an existing coil design method is described, to enable the design of asymmetric gradient coils with reduced hot spot temperatures. An improved model is presented for predicting steady-state spatial temperature distributions for gradient coils. A great amount of flexibility is afforded by this model to consider a wide range of geometries and system material properties. A feature of the temperature distribution related to the temperature gradient is used in a relaxed fixed point iteration routine for successively altering coil windings to have a lower hot spot temperature. Results show that significant reductions in peak temperature are possible at little or no cost to coil performance when compared to minimum power coils of equivalent field error.

Lidar Temperature Measurements During the SOLVE Campaign and the Absence of PSCs from Regions of Very Cold Air

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Burris, John; McGee, Thomas; Hoegy, Walt; Newman, Paul; Lait, Leslie; Twigg, Laurence; Sumnicht, Grant; Heaps, William; Hostetler, Chris; Neuber, Roland;

An assessment of precipitation and surface air temperature over China by regional climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xueyuan; Tang, Jianping; Niu, Xiaorui; Wang, Shuyu

2016-12-01

An analysis of a 20-year summer time simulation of present-day climate (1989-2008) over China using four regional climate models coupled with different land surface models is carried out. The climatic means, interannual variability, linear trends, and extremes are examined, with focus on precipitation and near surface air temperature. The models are able to reproduce the basic features of the observed summer mean precipitation and temperature over China and the regional detail due to topographic forcing. Overall, the model performance is better for temperature than that of precipitation. The models reasonably grasp the major anomalies and standard deviations over China and the five subregions studied. The models generally reproduce the spatial pattern of high interannual variability over wet regions, and low variability over the dry regions. The models also capture well the variable temperature gradient increase to the north by latitude. Both the observed and simulated linear trend of precipitation shows a drying tendency over the Yangtze River Basin and wetting over South China. The models capture well the relatively small temperature trends in large areas of China. The models reasonably simulate the characteristics of extreme precipitation indices of heavy rain days and heavy precipitation fraction. Most of the models also performed well in capturing both the sign and magnitude of the daily maximum and minimum temperatures over China.

Hydrothermal extremes at the South-West Pribaikalie during the current climate changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voropay, Nadezhda

2017-04-01

Climatic extremes of air temperature and precipitation were analyzed for the Tunka Intermountain Depression (South-West Pribaikalie, Buryatia, Russian Federation). Intermountain depressions occupy a quarter of the territory of the Baikal region. The specific climatic conditions in the depressions are formed due to the geographic location and the influence of latitudinal zonation and altitudinal gradients. Air temperature and precipitation data records from at weather stations for the period 1940-2015 were analyzed. Long-term average annual temperature is negative and varies from -0.8 °C to -2.4 °C. Air temperature absolute minimum is -48 °C, absolute maximum is +36 °C. The long-term average annual precipitation is 370-480 mm, but in some years annual precipitation reach 760 mm. The summer months have about 70% of the total annual precipitation, in July and August the sum may reach 340 mm. Maximum daily sum of rainfalls is 80 mm. The contribution of the global and regional circulation characteristics into the variability of regional climatic characteristics was estimated.

[Impacts of climate warming on growth period and yield of rice in Northeast China during recent two decades].

PubMed

Hou, Wen-jia; Geng, Ting; Chen, Qun; Chen, Chang-qing

2015-01-01

By using rice growth period, yield and climate observation data during the recent two decades, the impact of climate warming on rice in Northeast China was investigated by mathematical statistics methods. The results indicated that in the three provinces of Northeast China, the average, maximum and minimum temperatures in rice growing season were on the. rise, and the rainfall presented a downward trend during 1989-2009. Compared to 1990s, the rice whole growth periods of Heilongjiang, Jilin and Liaoning provinces in 2000s were prolonged 14 d, 4.5 d and 5.1 d, respectively. The increase of temperature in May, June and September could extend the rice growth period, while that in July would shorten the growth duration. The rice growth duration of registered varieties and experiment sites had a similar increasing trend in Northeast China except for the Heilongjiang Province, and the extension of registered varieties growth period was the main factor causing the prolonged growth period of rice at experiment sites. The change in daily average, minimum and maximum temperatures all could affect the rice yield in Northeast China. The increasing temperature significantly increased the rice yield in Heilongjiang Province, especially in the west region of Sanjiang Plain. Except for the south of Liaoning Province, rice yields in other regions of Northeast China were promoted by increasing temperature. Proper measures for breeding, cultivation and farming, could be adopted to fully improve the adaptation of rice to climate warming in Northeast China.

Trends in extreme daily temperatures and humidex index in the United Arab Emirates over 1948-2014.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, H. W.; Ouarda, T.

2015-12-01

This study deals with the analysis of the characteristics of extreme temperature events in the Middle East, using NCEP reanalysis gridded data, for the summer (May-October) and winter (November-April) seasons. Trends in the occurrences of three types of heat spells during 1948-2014 are studied by both Linear Regression (LR) and Mann-Kendall (MK) test. Changes in the diurnal temperature range (DTR) are also investigated. To better understand the effects of heat spells on public health, the Humidex, a combination index of ambient temperature and relative humidity, is also used. Using percentile threshold, temperature (Humidex) Type-A and Type-B heat spells are defined respectively by daily maximum and minimum temperature (Humidex). Type-C heat spells are defined as the joint occurrence of Type-A and Type-B heat spells at the same time. In the Middle East, it is found that no coherent trend in temperature Type-A heat spells is observed. However, the occurrences of temperature Type-B and C heat spells have consistently increased since 1948. For Humidex heat spells, coherently increased activities of all three types of heat spells are observed in the area. During the summer, the magnitude of the positive trends in Humidex heat spells are generally stronger than temperature heat spells. More than half of the locations in the area show significantly negative DTR trends in the summer, but the trends vary according to the region in the winter. Annual mean temperature has increased an average by 0.5°C, but it is mainly associated with the daily minimum temperature which has warmed up by 0.84°C.Daily maximum temperature showed no significant trends. The warming is hence stronger in minimum temperatures than in maximum temperatures resulting in a decrease in DTR by 0.16 °C per decade. This study indicates hence that the UAE has not become hotter, but it has become less cold during 1948 to 2014.

High-resolution spatial databases of monthly climate variables (1961-2010) over a complex terrain region in southwestern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Wei; Xu, An-Ding; Liu, Hong-Bin

2015-01-01

Climate data in gridded format are critical for understanding climate change and its impact on eco-environment. The aim of the current study is to develop spatial databases for three climate variables (maximum, minimum temperatures, and relative humidity) over a large region with complex topography in southwestern China. Five widely used approaches including inverse distance weighting, ordinary kriging, universal kriging, co-kriging, and thin-plate smoothing spline were tested. Root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) showed that thin-plate smoothing spline with latitude, longitude, and elevation outperformed other models. Average RMSE, MAE, and MAPE of the best models were 1.16 °C, 0.74 °C, and 7.38 % for maximum temperature; 0.826 °C, 0.58 °C, and 6.41 % for minimum temperature; and 3.44, 2.28, and 3.21 % for relative humidity, respectively. Spatial datasets of annual and monthly climate variables with 1-km resolution covering the period 1961-2010 were then obtained using the best performance methods. Comparative study showed that the current outcomes were in well agreement with public datasets. Based on the gridded datasets, changes in temperature variables were investigated across the study area. Future study might be needed to capture the uncertainty induced by environmental conditions through remote sensing and knowledge-based methods.

Mapping Topoclimate and Microclimate in the Monarch Butterfly Biosphere Reserve, Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weiss, S. B.

2006-12-01

Overwintering monarch butterflies in Mexico select areas of the high elevation Oyamel fir -pine forest providing a canopy that protects them from extremes of cold, heat, sun, and wind. These exacting microclimatic conditions are found in relatively small areas of forest with appropriate topography and canopy cover. The major goal of this investigation is to map topoclimatic and microclimatic conditions within the Monarch Butterfly Biosphere Reserve by combining temperature monitoring (iButton Thermochrons), hemispherical canopy photography, multiple regression, and GIS modeling. Temperature measurements included base weather stations and arrays of Thermochrons (on the north-side of trees at 2m height) across local topographic and canopy cover gradients. Topoclimatic models of minimum temperatures included topographic position, slope, and elevation, and predicted that thermal belts on slopes and cold air drainage into canyons create local minimum temperature gradients of 2°C. Topoclimatic models of maximum temperatures models included elevation, topographic position, and relative solar exposure, with local gradients of 3°C. These models, which are independent of forest canopy structure, were then projected across the entire region. Forest canopy structure, including direct and diffuse solar radiation, was assessed with hemispherical photography at each Thermochron site. Canopy cover affected minimum temperatures primarily on the calmest, coldest nights. Maximum temperatures were predicted by direct radiation below the canopy. Fine- scale grids (25 m spacing) at three overwintering sites characterized effects of canopy gaps and edges on temperature and wind exposure. The effects of temperature variation were considered for lipid loss rates, ability to take flight, and freezing mortality. Lipid loss rates were estimated by measured hourly temperatures. Many of the closed canopy sites allowed for substantial lipid reserves at the end of the season (March 15), but increases in average temperature could effectively deplete lipids by that time. The large influence of canopy cover on daytime maximum temperatures demonstrates that forest thinning directly reduces habitat suitability. Monarchs' flight behavior under warmer conditions suggests that daytime temperatures drive the dynamics of monarch distribution within colonies. Thinning also decreases nighttime minimum temperatures, and increases wind exposure. These results create a basis for quantitative understanding of the combinations of topography and forest structure that provide high quality overwintering habitat.

High-frequency daily temperature variability in China and its relationship to large-scale circulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wu, Fu-Ting; Fu, Congbin; Qian, Yun

Two measures of intra-seasonal variability, indicated respectively by standard deviations (SD) and day-to-day (DTD) fluctuations denoted by absolute differences between adjacent 2-day periods, as well as their relationships with large-scale circulation patterns were investigated in China during 1962–2008 on the basis of homogenized daily temperature records from 549 local stations and reanalysis data. Our results show that both the SD and DTD of daily minimum temperatures (Tmin) in summer as well as the minimum and maximum temperatures in winter have been decreasing, while the daily maximum temperature (Tmax) variability in summer is fluctuating more, especially over southern China. In summer,more » an attribution analysis indicates that the intensity of the Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) and high-level East Asian Subtropical Jet stream (EASJ) are positively correlated with both SD and DTD, but the correlation coefficients are generally greater with the SD than with the DTD of the daily maximum temperature, Tmax. In contrast, the location of the EASJ shows the opposite correlation pattern, with intensity regarding the correlation with both SD and DTD. In winter, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) is negatively correlated with both the SD and DTD of the daily minimum temperature, but its intra-seasonal variability exhibits good agreement with the SD of the Tmin. The Siberian High acts differently with respect to the SD and DTD of the Tmin, demonstrating a regionally consistent positive correlation with the SD. Overall, the large-scale circulation can well explain the intra-seasonal SD, but DTD fluctuations may be more local and impacted by local conditions, such as changes in the temperature itself, the land surface, and so on.« less

Effects of whole body cryotherapy and cold water immersion on knee skin temperature.

PubMed

Costello, J T; Donnelly, A E; Karki, A; Selfe, J

2014-01-01

This study sought to (a) compare and contrast the effect of 2 commonly used cryotherapy treatments, 4 min of -110 °C whole body cryotherapy and 8 °C cold water immersion, on knee skin temperature and (b) establish whether either protocol was capable of achieving a skin temperature (<13 °C) believed to be required for analgesic purposes. After ethics committee approval and written informed consent was obtained, 10 healthy males (26.5±4.9 yr, 183.5±6.0 cm, 90.7±19.9 kg, 26.8±5.0 kg/m2, 23.0±9.3% body fat; mean±SD) participated in this randomised controlled crossover study. Skin temperature around the patellar region was assessed in both knees via non-contact, infrared thermal imaging and recorded pre-, immediately post-treatment and every 10 min thereafter for 60 min. Compared to baseline, average, minimum and maximum skin temperatures were significantly reduced (p<0.001) immediately post-treatment and at 10, 20, 30, 40, 50 and 60 min after both cooling modalities. Average and minimum skin temperatures were lower (p<0.05) immediately after whole body cryotherapy (19.0±0.9 °C) compared to cold water immersion (20.5±0.6 °C). However, from 10 to 60 min post, the average, minimum and maximum skin temperatures were lower (p<0.05) following the cold water treatment. Finally, neither protocol achieved a skin temperature believed to be required to elicit an analgesic effect. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Upward ant distribution shift corresponds with minimum, not maximum, temperature tolerance

Treesearch

Robert J. Warren; Lacy Chick

2013-01-01

Rapid climate change may prompt species distribution shifts upward and poleward, but species movement in itself is not sufficient to establish climate causation. Other dynamics, such as disturbance history, may prompt species distribution shifts resembling those expected from rapid climate change. Links between species distributions, regional climate trends and...

Effects of Ion Magnetization on the Farley–Buneman Instability in the Solar Chromosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fletcher, Alex C.; Dimant, Yakov S.; Oppenheim, Meers M.; Fontenla, Juan M.

2018-04-01

Intense heating in the quiet-Sun chromosphere raises the temperature from 4000 to 6500 K but, despite decades of study, the underlying mechanism remains a mystery. This study continues to explore the possibility that the Farley–Buneman instability contributes to chromospheric heating. This instability occurs in weakly ionized collisional plasmas in which electrons are magnetized, but ions are not. A mixture of metal ions generate the plasma density in the coolest parts of the chromosphere; while some ions are weakly magnetized, others are demagnetized by neutral collisions. This paper incorporates the effects of multiple, arbitrarily magnetized species of ions to the theory of the Farley–Buneman instability and examines the ramifications on instability in the chromosphere. The inclusion of magnetized ions introduces new restrictions on the regions in which the instability can occur in the chromosphere—in fact, it confines the instability to the regions in which heating is observed. For a magnetic field of 30 G, the minimum ambient electric field capable of driving the instability is 13.5 V/m at the temperature minimum.

Actual and future trends of extreme values of temperature for the NW Iberian Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taboada, J.; Brands, S.; Lorenzo, N.

2009-09-01

It is now very well established that yearly averaged temperatures are increasing due to anthropogenic climate change. In the area of Galicia (NW Spain) this trend has also been determined. The main objective of this work is to assess actual and future trends of different extreme indices of temperature, which are of curcial importance for many impact studies. Station data for the study was provided by the CLIMA database of the regional government of Galicia (NW Spain). As direct GCM-output significantly underestimates the variance of daily surface temperature variables in NW Spain, these variables are obtained by applying a statistical downscaling technique (analog method), using 850hPa temperature and mean sea level pressure as combined predictors. The predictor fields have been extracted from three GCMs participating in the IPCC AR4 under A1, A1B and A2 scenarios. The definitions of the extreme indices have been taken from the joint CCl/CLIVAR/JCOMM Expert Team (ET) on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) This group has defined a set of standard extreme values to simplify intercomparisons of data from different regions of the world. For the temperatures in the period 1960-2006, results show a significant increase of the number of days with maximum temperatures above the 90th percentile. Furthermore, a significant decrease of the days with maximum temperatures below the 10th percentile has been found. The tendencies of minimum temperatures are reverse: less nights with minimum temperatures below 10th percentile, and more with minimum temperatures above 90th percentile. Those tendencies can be observed all over the year, but are more pronounced in summer. We have also calculated the relationship between the above mentioned extreme values and different teleconnection patterns appearing in the North Atlantic area. Results show that local tendencies are associated with trends of EA (Eastern Atlantic) and SCA (Scandinavian) patterns. NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) has also some relationship with these tendencies, but only related with cold days and nights in winter. The results of the applied statistical downscaling technique indicate that observed trends in maximum and minimum temperatures in NW Spain are expected to continue in the next decades because of anthropogenic climate change. The common tendency is that hot days increase while cold nights diminish all over the year. As expected, these tendencies change between different scenarios: they are more marked for A2 and A1B scenarios than for the for the B1 scenario. Moreover, the three models behave different under the same scenario, leaving a great uncertainty for the future. Nevertheless, we conclude that more frequent hot days, as well as an increasing probability of summertime heat waves are to be expected in the next decades. Cold days tend to diminish, decreasing the probability of wintertime cold waves and leaving a greater part of the area under study without frost days throughout the year.

Particle withdrawal from fluidized bed systems

DOEpatents

Salvador, Louis A.; Andermann, Ronald E.; Rath, Lawrence K.

1982-01-01

Method and apparatus for removing ash formed within, and accumulated at the lower portion of, a fluidized bed coal gasification reactor vessel. A supplemental fluidizing gas, at a temperature substantially less than the average fluidized bed combustion operating temperature, is injected into the vessel and upwardly through the ash so as to form a discrete thermal interface region between the fluidized bed and the ash. The elevation of the interface region, which rises with ash accumulation, is monitored by a thermocouple and interrelated with a motor controlled outlet valve. When the interface rises above the temperature indicator, the valve opens to allow removal of some of the ash, and the valve is closed, or positioned at a minimum setting, when the interface drops to an elevation below that of the thermocouple.

Global warming in the context of 2000 years of Australian alpine temperature and snow cover.

PubMed

McGowan, Hamish; Callow, John Nikolaus; Soderholm, Joshua; McGrath, Gavan; Campbell, Micheline; Zhao, Jian-Xin

2018-03-13

Annual resolution reconstructions of alpine temperatures are rare, particularly for the Southern Hemisphere, while no snow cover reconstructions exist. These records are essential to place in context the impact of anthropogenic global warming against historical major natural climate events such as the Roman Warm Period (RWP), Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and Little Ice Age (LIA). Here we show for a marginal alpine region of Australia using a carbon isotope speleothem reconstruction, warming over the past five decades has experienced equivalent magnitude of temperature change and snow cover decline to the RWP and MCA. The current rate of warming is unmatched for the past 2000 years and seasonal snow cover is at a minimum. On scales of several decades, mean maximum temperatures have undergone considerable change ≈ ± 0.8 °C highlighting local scale susceptibility to rapid temperature change, evidence of which is often masked in regional to hemisphere scale temperature reconstructions.

The effects of hot nights on mortality in Barcelona, Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Royé, D.

2017-12-01

Heat-related effects on mortality have been widely analyzed using maximum and minimum temperatures as exposure variables. Nevertheless, the main focus is usually on the former with the minimum temperature being limited in use as far as human health effects are concerned. Therefore, new thermal indices were used in this research to describe the duration of night hours with air temperatures higher than the 95% percentile of the minimum temperature (hot night hours) and intensity as the summation of these air temperatures in degrees (hot night degrees). An exposure-response relationship between mortality due to natural, respiratory, and cardiovascular causes and summer night temperatures was assessed using data from the Barcelona region between 2003 and 2013. The non-linear relationship between the exposure and response variables was modeled using a distributed lag non-linear model. The estimated associations for both exposure variables and mortality shows a relationship with high and medium values that persist significantly up to a lag of 1-2 days. In mortality due to natural causes, an increase of 1.1% per 10% (CI95% 0.6-1.5) for hot night hours and 5.8% per each 10° (CI95% 3.5-8.2%) for hot night degrees is observed. The effects of hot night hours reach their maximum with 100% and lead to an increase by 9.2% (CI95% 5.3-13.1%). The hourly description of night heat effects reduced to a single indicator in duration and intensity is a new approach and shows a different perspective and significant heat-related effects on human health.

The Interannual Stability of Cumulative Frequency Distributions for Convective System Size and Intensity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mohr, Karen I.; Molinari, John; Thorncroft, Chris D,

2010-01-01

The characteristics of convective system populations in West Africa and the western Pacific tropical cyclone basin were analyzed to investigate whether interannual variability in convective activity in tropical continental and oceanic environments is driven by variations in the number of events during the wet season or by favoring large and/or intense convective systems. Convective systems were defined from TRMM data as a cluster of pixels with an 85 GHz polarization-corrected brightness temperature below 255 K and with an area at least 64 km 2. The study database consisted of convective systems in West Africa from May Sep for 1998-2007 and in the western Pacific from May Nov 1998-2007. Annual cumulative frequency distributions for system minimum brightness temperature and system area were constructed for both regions. For both regions, there were no statistically significant differences among the annual curves for system minimum brightness temperature. There were two groups of system area curves, split by the TRMM altitude boost in 2001. Within each set, there was no statistically significant interannual variability. Sub-setting the database revealed some sensitivity in distribution shape to the size of the sampling area, length of sample period, and climate zone. From a regional perspective, the stability of the cumulative frequency distributions implied that the probability that a convective system would attain a particular size or intensity does not change interannually. Variability in the number of convective events appeared to be more important in determining whether a year is wetter or drier than normal.

Climate and its change over the Tibetan Plateau and its Surroundings in 1963-2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ding, J.; Cuo, L.

2017-12-01

Tibetan Plateau and its surroundings (TPS, 23°-43°N, 73°-106°E) lies in the southwest of China and includes Tibet Autonomous Region, Qinghai Province, southern Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, part of Gansu Province, western Sichuan Province, and northern Yunnan Province. The region is of strategic importance in water resources because it is the headwater of ten large rivers that support more than 16 billion population. In this study, we use daily temperature maximum and minimum, precipitation and wind speed in 1963-2015 obtained from Climate Data Center of China Meteorological Administration and Qinghai Meteorological Bureau to investigate extreme climate conditions and their changes over the TPS. The extreme events are selected based on annual extreme values and percentiles. Annual extreme value approach produces one value each year for all variables, which enables us to examine the magnitude of extreme events; whereas percentile approach selects extreme values by setting 95th percentile as thresholds for maximum temperature, precipitation and wind speed, and 5th percentile for minimum temperature. Percentile approach not only enables us to investigate the magnitude but also frequency of the extreme events. Also, Mann-Kendall trend and mutation analysis were applied to analyze the changes in mean and extreme conditions. The results will help us understand more about the extreme events during the past five decades on the TPS and will provide valuable information for the upcoming IPCC reports on climate change.

Linking Climate to Incidence of Zoonotic Cutaneous Leishmaniasis (L. major) in Pre-Saharan North Africa

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bounoua, Lahouari; Kahime, Kholoud; Houti, Leila; Blakey, Tara; Ebi, Kristie L.; Zhang, Ping; Imhoff, Marc L.; Thome, Kurtis J.; Dudek, Claire; Sahabi, Salah A.;

Raised temperatures over the Kericho tea estates: revisiting the climate in the East African highlands malaria debate.

PubMed

Omumbo, Judith A; Lyon, Bradfield; Waweru, Samuel M; Connor, Stephen J; Thomson, Madeleine C

2011-01-17

Whether or not observed increases in malaria incidence in the Kenyan Highlands during the last thirty years are associated with co-varying changes in local temperature, possibly connected to global changes in climate, has been debated for over a decade. Studies, using differing data sets and methodologies, produced conflicting results regarding the occurrence of temperature trends and their likelihood of being responsible, at least in part, for the increases in malaria incidence in the highlands of western Kenya. A time series of quality controlled daily temperature and rainfall data from Kericho, in the Kenyan Highlands, may help resolve the controversy. If significant temperature trends over the last three decades have occurred then climate should be included (along with other factors such as land use change and drug resistance) as a potential driver of the observed increases in malaria in the region. Over 30 years (1 January 1979 to 31 December 2009) of quality controlled daily observations ( > 97% complete) of maximum, minimum and mean temperature were used in the analysis of trends at Kericho meteorological station, sited in a tea growing area of Kenya's western highlands. Inhomogeneities in all the time series were identified and corrected. Linear trends were identified via a least-squares regression analysis with statistical significance assessed using a two-tailed t-test. These 'gold standard' meteorological observations were compared with spatially interpolated temperature datasets that have been developed for regional or global applications. The relationship of local climate processes with larger climate variations, including tropical sea surface temperatures (SST), and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was also assessed. An upward trend of ≈0.2°C/decade was observed in all three temperature variables (P < 0.01). Mean temperature variations in Kericho were associated with large-scale climate variations including tropical SST (r = 0.50; p < 0.01). Local rainfall was found to have inverse effects on minimum and maximum temperature. Three versions of a spatially interpolated temperature data set showed markedly different trends when compared with each other and with the Kericho station observations. This study presents evidence of a warming trend in observed maximum, minimum and mean temperatures at Kericho during the period 1979 to 2009 using gold standard meteorological observations. Although local factors may be contributing to these trends, the findings are consistent with variability and trends that have occurred in correlated global climate processes. Climate should therefore not be dismissed as a potential driver of observed increases in malaria seen in the region during recent decades, however its relative importance compared to other factors needs further elaboration. Climate services, pertinent to the achievement of development targets such as the Millennium Development Goals and the analysis of infectious disease in the context of climate variability and change are being developed and should increase the availability of relevant quality controlled climate data for improving development decisions. The malaria community should seize this opportunity to make their needs heard.

Contribution of urban expansion and a changing climate to decline of a butterfly fauna.

PubMed

Casner, Kayce L; Forister, Matthew L; O'Brien, Joshua M; Thorne, James; Waetjen, David; Shapiro, Arthur M

2014-06-01

Butterfly populations are naturally patchy and undergo extinctions and recolonizations. Analyses based on more than 2 decades of data on California's Central Valley butterfly fauna show a net loss in species richness through time. We analyzed 22 years of phenological and faunistic data for butterflies to investigate patterns of species richness over time. We then used 18-22 years of data on changes in regional land use and 37 years of seasonal climate data to develop an explanatory model. The model related the effects of changes in land-use patterns, from working landscapes (farm and ranchland) to urban and suburban landscapes, and of a changing climate on butterfly species richness. Additionally, we investigated local trends in land use and climate. A decline in the area of farmland and ranchland, an increase in minimum temperatures during the summer and maximum temperatures in the fall negatively affected net species richness, whereas increased minimum temperatures in the spring and greater precipitation in the previous summer positively affected species richness. According to the model, there was a threshold between 30% and 40% working-landscape area below which further loss of working-landscape area had a proportionally greater effect on butterfly richness. Some of the isolated effects of a warming climate acted in opposition to affect butterfly richness. Three of the 4 climate variables that most affected richness showed systematic trends (spring and summer mean minimum and fall mean maximum temperatures). Higher spring minimum temperatures were associated with greater species richness, whereas higher summer temperatures in the previous year and lower rainfall were linked to lower richness. Patterns of land use contributed to declines in species richness (although the pattern was not linear), but the net effect of a changing climate on butterfly richness was more difficult to discern. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

Numerical investigations of arc behaviour in gas metal arc welding using ANSYS CFX

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schnick, M.; Fuessel, U.; Hertel, M.; Spille-Kohoff, A.; Murphy, A. B.

2011-06-01

Current numerical models of gas metal arc welding (GMAW) are trying to combine magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) models of the arc and volume of fluid (VoF) models of metal transfer. They neglect vaporization and assume an argon atmosphere for the arc region, as it is common practice for models of gas tungsten arc welding. These models predict temperatures above 20 000 K and a temperature distribution similar to tungsten inert gas (TIG) arcs. However, current spectroscopic temperature measurements in GMAW arcs demonstrate much lower arc temperatures. In contrast to TIG arcs they found a central local minimum of the radial temperature distribution. The paper presents a GMAW arc model that considers metal vapour and which is in a very good agreement with experimentally observed temperatures. Furthermore, the model is able to predict the local central minimum in the radial temperature and the radial electric current density distributions for the first time. The axially symmetric model of the welding torch, the work piece, the wire and the arc (fluid domain) implements MHD as well as turbulent mixing and thermal demixing of metal vapour in argon. The mass fraction of iron vapour obtained from the simulation shows an accumulation in the arc core and another accumulation on the fringes of the arc at 2000 to 5000 K. The demixing effects lead to very low concentrations of iron between these two regions. Sensitive analyses demonstrate the influence of the transport and radiation properties of metal vapour, and the evaporation rate relative to the wire feed. Finally the model predictions are compared with the measuring results of Zielińska et al.

Principles of thermal remote sensing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1982-01-01

The remote sensing of temperature is performed by sensing radiation emitted from solids, liquids, and gases in the thermal infrared region of the spectrum, in which thermal emission is dominant over reflected solar energy. For Earth resources applications, thermal sensing of solids and liquids is performed in two ""windows'' of the atmosphere where atmospheric absorption and emission are at a minimum. Temperature measurement, intrinsic thermal properties, factors in interpreting thermal data, the use of thermal inertia, and the measurements obtained by the heat capacity mapping radiometer are discussed.

Gallium-doped germanium, evaluation of photoconductors, part 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moore, W. J.

1979-01-01

Gallium-doped germanium far infrared detectors were evaluated at low temperatures and low background simulating the space environment. Signal and noise characteristics were determined for detector temperatures in the 2K to 4K range. Optimum performance occurs at about 2.5K for all devices tested. The minimum average NEP in the 40-130 micron region was found to be approximately 4 x 10 to the minus 17th power watt Hz(-1/2) at a frequency of 1 Hz.

Mini-Brayton heat source assembly design study. Volume 2: Titan 3C mission. [minimum weight modifications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1973-01-01

Major conclusions of the space shuttle heat source assembly study are reported that project a minimum weight design for a Titan 3 C synchronous orbit mission; requirements to recover the heat source in orbit are eliminated. This concept permits location of the heat source end enclosure supports and heat source assembly support housing in a low temperature region external to the insulation enclosure and considers titanium and beryllium alloys for these support elements. A high melting insulation blanket consisting of nickel foil coated with zirconia, or of gold foil separated with glass fiber layers, is selected to provide emergency cooling in the range 2000 to 2700 F to prevent the isotope heat source from reaching unsafe temperatures. A graphic view of the baseline heat source assembly is included.

Far-infrared and 3D imaging for doneness assessment in chicken breast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tao, Yang; Ibarra, Juan G.

2001-03-01

Sensor fusion of infrared imaging and range imaging was proposed to estimate internal temperature on just cooked chicken breasts. An infrared camera operating at 8-12 microns registered surface temperature of cooked meat samples, while a single line structured light system located the thickest region of the meat target. In this region of interest, a combined time series/neural network method is applied to correlate the internal and external temperatures during the cool-down process. Experimental verification in a pilot plant oven is presented. To ensure food safety, a mandatory regulation requires all poultry processors in the U.S.A to verify that all ready-to-eat products reach a minimum endpoint temperature (71¦C for chicken breast), but no current assay can do a non-invasively inspection of all the samples. The proposed system has the potential for on-line inspection of ready-to-eat meat for food quality and safety.

Weather variability, tides, and Barmah Forest virus disease in the Gladstone region, Australia.

PubMed

Naish, Suchithra; Hu, Wenbiao; Nicholls, Neville; Mackenzie, John S; McMichael, Anthony J; Dale, Pat; Tong, Shilu

2006-05-01

In this study we examined the impact of weather variability and tides on the transmission of Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease and developed a weather-based forecasting model for BFV disease in the Gladstone region, Australia. We used seasonal autoregressive integrated moving-average (SARIMA) models to determine the contribution of weather variables to BFV transmission after the time-series data of response and explanatory variables were made stationary through seasonal differencing. We obtained data on the monthly counts of BFV cases, weather variables (e.g., mean minimum and maximum temperature, total rainfall, and mean relative humidity), high and low tides, and the population size in the Gladstone region between January 1992 and December 2001 from the Queensland Department of Health, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Queensland Department of Transport, and Australian Bureau of Statistics, respectively. The SARIMA model shows that the 5-month moving average of minimum temperature (b=0.15, p-value<0.001) was statistically significantly and positively associated with BFV disease, whereas high tide in the current month (b=-1.03, p-value=0.04) was statistically significantly and inversely associated with it. However, no significant association was found for other variables. These results may be applied to forecast the occurrence of BFV disease and to use public health resources in BFV control and prevention.

Heat Wave and Mortality: A Multicountry, Multicommunity Study

PubMed Central

Gasparrini, Antonio; Armstrong, Ben G.; Tawatsupa, Benjawan; Tobias, Aurelio; Lavigne, Eric; Coelho, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio; Pan, Xiaochuan; Kim, Ho; Hashizume, Masahiro; Honda, Yasushi; Guo, Yue-Liang Leon; Wu, Chang-Fu; Zanobetti, Antonella; Schwartz, Joel D.; Bell, Michelle L.; Scortichini, Matteo; Michelozzi, Paola; Punnasiri, Kornwipa; Li, Shanshan; Tian, Linwei; Garcia, Samuel David Osorio; Seposo, Xerxes; Overcenco, Ala; Zeka, Ariana; Goodman, Patrick; Dang, Tran Ngoc; Dung, Do Van; Mayvaneh, Fatemeh; Saldiva, Paulo Hilario Nascimento; Williams, Gail; Tong, Shilu

2017-01-01

Background: Few studies have examined variation in the associations between heat waves and mortality in an international context. Objectives: We aimed to systematically examine the impacts of heat waves on mortality with lag effects internationally. Methods: We collected daily data of temperature and mortality from 400 communities in 18 countries/regions and defined 12 types of heat waves by combining community-specific daily mean temperature ≥90th, 92.5th, 95th, and 97.5th percentiles of temperature with duration ≥2, 3, and 4 d. We used time-series analyses to estimate the community-specific heat wave–mortality relation over lags of 0–10 d. Then, we applied meta-analysis to pool heat wave effects at the country level for cumulative and lag effects for each type of heat wave definition. Results: Heat waves of all definitions had significant cumulative associations with mortality in all countries, but varied by community. The higher the temperature threshold used to define heat waves, the higher heat wave associations on mortality. However, heat wave duration did not modify the impacts. The association between heat waves and mortality appeared acutely and lasted for 3 and 4 d. Heat waves had higher associations with mortality in moderate cold and moderate hot areas than cold and hot areas. There were no added effects of heat waves on mortality in all countries/regions, except for Brazil, Moldova, and Taiwan. Heat waves defined by daily mean and maximum temperatures produced similar heat wave–mortality associations, but not daily minimum temperature. Conclusions: Results indicate that high temperatures create a substantial health burden, and effects of high temperatures over consecutive days are similar to what would be experienced if high temperature days occurred independently. People living in moderate cold and moderate hot areas are more sensitive to heat waves than those living in cold and hot areas. Daily mean and maximum temperatures had similar ability to define heat waves rather than minimum temperature. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP1026 PMID:28886602

A pantropical analysis of the impacts of forest degradation and conversion on local temperature.

PubMed

Senior, Rebecca A; Hill, Jane K; González Del Pliego, Pamela; Goode, Laurel K; Edwards, David P

2017-10-01

Temperature is a core component of a species' fundamental niche. At the fine scale over which most organisms experience climate (mm to ha), temperature depends upon the amount of radiation reaching the Earth's surface, which is principally governed by vegetation. Tropical regions have undergone widespread and extreme changes to vegetation, particularly through the degradation and conversion of rainforests. As most terrestrial biodiversity is in the tropics, and many of these species possess narrow thermal limits, it is important to identify local thermal impacts of rainforest degradation and conversion. We collected pantropical, site-level (<1 ha) temperature data from the literature to quantify impacts of land-use change on local temperatures, and to examine whether this relationship differed aboveground relative to belowground and between wet and dry seasons. We found that local temperature in our sample sites was higher than primary forest in all human-impacted land-use types (N = 113,894 daytime temperature measurements from 25 studies). Warming was pronounced following conversion of forest to agricultural land (minimum +1.6°C, maximum +13.6°C), but minimal and nonsignificant when compared to forest degradation (e.g., by selective logging; minimum +1°C, maximum +1.1°C). The effect was buffered belowground (minimum buffering 0°C, maximum buffering 11.4°C), whereas seasonality had minimal impact (maximum buffering 1.9°C). We conclude that forest-dependent species that persist following conversion of rainforest have experienced substantial local warming. Deforestation pushes these species closer to their thermal limits, making it more likely that compounding effects of future perturbations, such as severe droughts and global warming, will exceed species' tolerances. By contrast, degraded forests and belowground habitats may provide important refugia for thermally restricted species in landscapes dominated by agricultural land.

Demonstrating the limitations of line ratio temperature diagnostic using Fe X and Fe XIV spectral line intensity observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brickhouse, Nancy; Esser, Ruth; Habbal, Shadia R.

1995-01-01

The electron temperature in the inner corona can be derived from spectral line intensity measurements by comparing the ratio of the measured intensities of two spectral lines to the ratio calculated from theoretical models. In a homogeneous plasma the line ratio technique can be used for any two lines if the ratio of the intensities is independent of the density. The corona, however, is far from homogeneous. Even large coronal holes present at the solar poles at solar minimum can be partly or completely obscured by emission from hotter and denser surrounding regions. In this paper we investigate the effect of these surrounding regions on coronal hole temperatures. using daily intensity measurements at 1.15 Rs of the Fe XIV 5303 A and Fe X 6374 A spectral lines carried out at the National Solar Observatory at Sacramento Peak. We show that the temperatures derived using the line ratio technique for these two spectral lines can vary by more than 0.8 x 10(exp 6) K due to the contribution from surrounding regions. This example demonstrates the inadequacy of spectral lines with widely separate peak temperatures for temperature diagnostic.

Detection of trends and break points in temperature: the case of Umbria (Italy) and Guadalquivir Valley (Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herrera-Grimaldi, Pascual; García-Marín, Amanda; Ayuso-Muñoz, José Luís; Flamini, Alessia; Morbidelli, Renato; Ayuso-Ruíz, José Luís

2018-02-01

The increase of air surface temperature at global scale is a fact with values around 0.85 °C since the late nineteen century. Nevertheless, the increase is not equally distributed all over the world, varying from one region to others. Thus, it becomes interesting to study the evolution of temperature indices for a certain area in order to analyse the existence of climatic trend in it. In this work, monthly temperature time series from two Mediterranean areas are used: the Umbria region in Italy, and the Guadalquivir Valley in southern Spain. For the available stations, six temperature indices (three annual and three monthly) of mean, average maximum and average minimum temperature have been obtained, and the existence of trends has been studied by applying the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test. Both regions show a general increase in all temperature indices, being the pattern of the trends clearer in Spain than in Italy. The Italian area is the only one at which some negative trends are detected. The presence of break points in the temperature series has been also studied by using the non-parametric Pettit test and the parametric standard normal homogeneity test (SNHT), most of which may be due to natural phenomena.

Dual-mode antenna design for microwave heating and noninvasive thermometry of superficial tissue disease.

PubMed

Jacobsen, S; Stauffer, P R; Neuman, D G

2000-11-01

Hyperthermia therapy of superficial skin disease has proven clinically useful, but current heating equipment is somewhat clumsy and technically inadequate for many patients. The present effort describes a dual-purpose, conformal microwave applicator that is fabricated from thin, flexible, multilayer printed circuit board (PCB) material to facilitate heating of surface areas overlaying contoured anatomy. Preliminary studies document the feasibility of combining Archimedean spiral microstrip antennas, located concentrically within the central region of square dual concentric conductor (DCC) annular slot antennas. The motivation is to achieve homogeneous tissue heating simultaneously with noninvasive thermometry by radiometric sensing of blackbody radiation from the target tissue under the applicator. Results demonstrate that the two antennas have complimentary regions of influence. The DCC ring antenna structure produces a peripherally enhanced power deposition pattern with peaks in the outer corners of the aperture and a broad minimum around 50% of maximum centrally. In contrast, the Archimedean spiral radiates (or receives) energy predominantly along the boresight axis of the spiral, thus confining the region of influence to tissue located within the central broad minimum of the DCC pattern. Analysis of the temperature-dependent radiometer signal (brightness temperature) showed linear correlation of radiometer output with test load temperature using either the spiral or DCC structure as the receive antenna. The radiometric performance of the broadband Archimedean antenna was superior compared to the DCC, providing improved temperature resolution (0.1 degree C-0.2 degree C) and signal sensitivity (0.3 degree C-0.8 degree C/degree C) at all four 500 MHz integration bandwidths tested within the frequency range from 1.2 to 3.0 GHz.

Statistical downscaling of CMIP5 outputs for projecting future maximum and minimum temperature over the Haihe River Bain, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Tiezhu; Shen, Zhenyao; Heng, Lee; Dercon, Gerd

2016-04-01

Future climate change information is important to formulate adaptation and mitigation strategies for climate change. In this study, a statistical downscaling model (SDSM) was established using both NCEP reanalysis data and ground observations (daily maximum and minimum temperature) during the period 1971-2010, and then calibrated model was applied to generate the future maximum and minimum temperature projections using predictors from the two CMIP5 models (MPI-ESM-LR and CNRM-CM5) under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) during the period 2011-2100 for the Haihe River Basin, China. Compared to the baseline period, future change in annual and seasonal maximum and minimum temperature was computed after bias correction. The spatial distribution and trend change of annual maximum and minimum temperature were also analyzed using ensemble projections. The results shows that: (1)The downscaling model had a good applicability on reproducing daily and monthly mean maximum and minimum temperature over the whole basin. (2) Bias was observed when using historical predictors from CMIP5 models and the performance of CNRM-CM5 was a little worse than that of MPI-ESM-LR. (3) The change in annual mean maximum and minimum temperature under the two scenarios in 2020s, 2050s and 2070s will increase and magnitude of maximum temperature will be higher than minimum temperature. (4) The increase in temperature in the mountains and along the coastline is remarkably high than the other parts of the studies basin. (5) For annual maximum and minimum temperature, the significant upward trend will be obtained under RCP 8.5 scenario and the magnitude will be 0.37 and 0.39 ℃ per decade, respectively; the increase in magnitude under RCP 2.6 scenario will be upward in 2020s and then decrease in 2050s and 2070s, and the magnitude will be 0.01 and 0.01℃ per decade, respectively.

Downscaling to the Climate Near the Ground: Measurements and Modeling Along the Macro-, Meso-, Topo-, and Microclimate Hierarchy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van de Ven, C.; Weiss, S. B.

2009-12-01

Most climate models are expressed at regional scales, with resolutions on the scales of kilometers. When used for ecological modeling, these climate models help explain only broad-scale trends, such as latitudinal and upslope migration of plants. However, more refined ecological models require down-scaled climate data at ecologically relevant spatial scales, and the goal of this presentation is to demonstrate robust downscaling methods. For example, in the White Mountains, eastern California, tree species, including bristlecone pine (Pinus longaeva) are seen moving not just upslope, but also sideways across aspects, and downslope into areas characterized by cold air drainage. Macroclimate in the White Mountains is semi-arid, residing in the rain shadow of the Sierra Nevada. Macroclimate is modified by mesoscale effects of mountain ranges, where climate becomes wetter and colder with elevation, the temperature decreasing according to the regionally and temporally-specific lapse rate. Local topography further modifies climate, where slope angle, aspect, and topographic position further impact the temperature at a given site. Finally, plants experience extremely localized microclimate, where surrounding vegetation provide differing degrees of shade. We measured and modeled topoclimate across the White Mountains using iButton Thermochron temperature data loggers during late summer in 2006 and 2008, and have documented effects of microclimatic temperature differences between sites in the open and shaded by shrubs. Starting with PRISM 800m data, we derived mesoscale lapse rates. Then, we calculated temperature differentials between each Thermochron and a long-term weather station in the middle of the range at Crooked Creek Valley. We modeled month-specific minimum temperature differentials by regressing the Thermochron-weather station minimum temperature differentials with various topographic parameters. Topographic position, the absolute value of topographic position, and slope combined to provide a very close fit (r2>0.9) to measured inversions of >8°C. Although topoclimatic maximum temperature models have been more elusive, regressions with degree hours greater than zero (DH>0) have been modeled with September insolation and slope (r2=0.7). In paired experiments, Thermochrons also recorded the temperature differences between the environment under sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata) and in the open, with an average minimum temperature difference of 2.1°C, and maximum temperature difference of 4.5°C. When we incorporate hourly weather station data, the strength of the inversion is weakened by wind, higher relative humidity, and cloudiness. This hierarchical modeling provides a template for downscaling climate and weather to ecologically relevant scales.

Climate change projections for Tamil Nadu, India: deriving high-resolution climate data by a downscaling approach using PRECIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bal, Prasanta Kumar; Ramachandran, A.; Geetha, R.; Bhaskaran, B.; Thirumurugan, P.; Indumathi, J.; Jayanthi, N.

2016-02-01

In this paper, we present regional climate change projections for the Tamil Nadu state of India, simulated by the Met Office Hadley Centre regional climate model. The model is run at 25 km horizontal resolution driven by lateral boundary conditions generated by a perturbed physical ensemble of 17 simulations produced by a version of Hadley Centre coupled climate model, known as HadCM3Q under A1B scenario. The large scale features of these 17 simulations were evaluated for the target region to choose lateral boundary conditions from six members that represent a range of climate variations over the study region. The regional climate, known as PRECIS, was then run 130 years from 1970. The analyses primarily focus on maximum and minimum temperatures and rainfall over the region. For the Tamil Nadu as a whole, the projections of maximum temperature show an increase of 1.0, 2.2 and 3.1 °C for the periods 2020s (2005-2035), 2050s (2035-2065) and 2080s (2065-2095), respectively, with respect to baseline period (1970-2000). Similarly, the projections of minimum temperature show an increase of 1.1, 2.4 and 3.5 °C, respectively. This increasing trend is statistically significant (Mann-Kendall trend test). The annual rainfall projections for the same periods indicate a general decrease in rainfall of about 2-7, 1-4 and 4-9 %, respectively. However, significant exceptions are noticed over some pockets of western hilly areas and high rainfall areas where increases in rainfall are seen. There are also indications of increasing heavy rainfall events during the northeast monsoon season and a slight decrease during the southwest monsoon season. Such an approach of using climate models may maximize the utility of high-resolution climate change information for impact-adaptation-vulnerability assessments.

Climate Variability and Impact at NASA's Marshal Space Flight Center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smoot, James L.; Jedlovec, Gary; Williams, Brett

2013-01-01

Climate analysis for the Southeast U. S. has indicated that inland regions have experienced an average temperature increase of 2F since 1970. This trend is generally characterized by warmer winters with an indication of increased precipitation in the Fall season. Extended periods of limited rainfall in the Spring and Summer periods have had greater areal coverage and, at other times the number of precipitation events has been increasing. Climate model projections for the next 10-70 years indicate warmer temperatures for the Southeast U.S., particularly in the Spring and Summer, with some indication of more extremes in temperature and precipitation as shown in the table below. The realization of these types of regional climate changes in the form of extended heat waves and droughts and their subsequent stress on facilities, infrastructure, and workforce could have substantial impact on the activities and functions of NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) in Huntsville, Alabama. This presentation will present the results of an examination of the 100 year temperature and precipitation record for MSFC. Local warming has cause an increase in daily maximum and minimum temperatures by nearly 3F, with a substantial increase in the number of maximum temperatures exceeding 90F and a decrease in the number of days with minimum temperatures below freezing. These trends have substantial impact of the number of heating / cooling degree days for the area. Yearly precipitation totals are inversely correlated with the change in mean temperature and the frequency of heavy rain events has remain consistent with the changes in yearly totals. An extended heat wave index was developed which shows an increase in frequency of heat waves over the last 35 years and a subsequent reduction in precipitation during the heat waves. This trend will contribute to more intense drought conditions over the northern Alabama region, increasing the potential of destructive wildfires in and around the Center. MSFC has begun using this climate change information to adapt short-term and long-term plans for Center operations.

Spatiotemporal distribution characteristics and attribution of extreme regional low temperature event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, Tai-Chen; Zhang, Ke-Quan; Su, Hai-Jing; Wang, Xiao-Juan; Gong, Zhi-Qiang; Zhang, Wen-Yu

2015-10-01

Based on an objective identification technique for regional low temperature event (OITRLTE), the daily minimum temperature in China has been detected from 1960 to 2013. During this period, there were 60 regional extreme low temperature events (ERLTEs), which are included in the 690 regional low temperature events (RLTEs). The 60 ERLTEs are analyzed in this paper. The results show that in the last 50 years, the intensity of the ERLTEs has become weak; the number of lasted days has decreased; and, the affected area has become small. However, that situation has changed in this century. In terms of spatial distribution, the high intensity regions are mainly in Northern China while the high frequency regions concentrate in Central and Eastern China. According to the affected area of each event, the 60 ERLTEs are classified into six types. The atmospheric circulation background fields which correspond to these types are also analyzed. The results show that, influenced by stronger blocking highs of Ural and Lake Baikal, as well as stronger southward polar vortex and East Asia major trough at 500-hPa geopotential height, cold air from high latitudes is guided to move southward and abnormal northerly winds at 850 hPa makes the cold air blow into China along diverse paths, thereby forming different types of regional extreme low temperatures in winter. Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41305075), the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant Nos. 2012CB955203 and 2012CB955902), and the Special Scientific Research on Public Welfare Industry, China (Grant No. GYHY201306049).

40 CFR 60.37e - Compliance, performance testing, and monitoring guidelines.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... requirements: (1) Establish maximum charge rate and minimum secondary chamber temperature as site-specific... above the maximum charge rate or below the minimum secondary chamber temperature measured as 3-hour... below the minimum secondary chamber temperature shall constitute a violation of the established...

Seasonal dynamics of VLF signals amplitude Novosibirsk radio station and mesopause region temperature in 2009-2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kozlov, V. I.; Korsakov, A. A.; Ammosov, P. P.; Ammosova, A. M.; Gavrilyeva, G. A.; Koltovskoi, I. I.

2017-11-01

Dynamics of seasonal variations in the amplitude of the VLF radio signal received in Yakutsk from the navigation station near Novosibirsk and the radiation intensity in the wavelength range from 835 to 853 nm, where the P-branches of the OH band (6-2) are located, is present. The radiation variations give information about mesopause region measured at the Maimaga station (130 km from Yakutsk). Observation period from 2009 to 2015 covers period with minimum and maximum solar activity (solar flux F10.7). In the seasonal dynamics of the VLF amplitude signals and the mesopause temperature are observed annual, semiannual and third-annual variations, increasing during nighttime for VLF signals. The mesopause temperature and the VLF signal increase with increasing solar flux F10.7 in winter.

Influence of temperature and conductivity on the life-history characteristics of a pampean strain of Brachionus plicatilis.

PubMed

Ferrando, Noelia S; Claps, María C; Benítez, Hernán H; Gabellone, Néstor A

2018-05-14

In the present work, we provide the first approach about the life-history of Brachionus plicatilis in South America. We tested with laboratory experiments the response of the pampean strain of B. plicatilis for two of its main stressors (conductivity and temperature). We evaluated the effects of eight conductivity values from 1 to 17 mS.cm-1 and two temperatures (15 and 25 °C) to compare its abundance with those obtained in the pampean lotic and lentic environments, where this rotifer is frequent or dominant. The results demonstrated that the increase in population-growth rate and the peak of abundance occurred at the highest temperature and at medium conductivity. Minimum values were obtained at the lowest temperature and conductivities analyzed, but the final density attained was nevertheless similar to those recorded in the pampean environments at the optimum conductivity and during the spring and summer seasons. Males, mictic females, and resting eggs were observed at the minimum and maximum conductivities, revealing the strategy of this species for maintaining dominance in environments with fluctuating salinity. The experiments also indicated the possible behavior of this relevant member of the zooplankton community within a scenario of increasing temperature and salinity related to the climate changes occurring in the pampean region.

Quantifying Observed Temperature Extremes in the Southeastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sura, P.; Stefanova, L. B.; Griffin, M.; Worsnop, R.

2011-12-01

There is broad consensus that the most hazardous effects of climate change are related to a potential increase (in frequency and/or intensity) of extreme weather and climate events. In particular, the statistics of regional daily temperature extremes are of practical interest for the agricultural community and energy suppliers. This is notably true for the Southeastern United States where winter hard freezes are a relatively rare and potentially catastrophic event. Here we use a long record of quality-controlled observations collected from 272 National Weather Service (NWS) Cooperative Observing Network (COOP) stations throughout Florida, Georgia, Alabama, and South and North Carolina to provide a detailed climatology of temperature extremes in the Southeastern United States. We employ two complementary approaches. First, we analyze the effect of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) on the non-Gaussian (i.e. higher order) statistics of wintertime daily minimum and maximum temperatures. We find a significant and spatially varying impact of ENSO and AO on the non-Gaussian statistics of daily maximum and minimum temperatures throughout the domain. Second, the extremes of the temperature distributions are studied by calculating the 1st and 99th percentiles, and then analyzing the number of days with record low/high temperatures per season. This analysis of daily temperature extremes reveals oscillating, multi-decadal patterns with spatially varying centers of action.

Simulation of hydrodynamics, temperature, and dissolved oxygen in Beaver Lake, Arkansas, 1994-1995

USGS Publications Warehouse

Haggard, Brian; Green, W. Reed

2002-01-01

The tailwaters of Beaver Lake and other White River reservoirs support a cold-water trout fishery of significant economic yield in northwestern Arkansas. The Arkansas Game and Fish Commission has requested an increase in existing minimum flows through the Beaver Lake dam to increase the amount of fishable waters downstream. Information is needed to assess the impact of additional minimum flows on temperature and dissolved-oxygen qualities of reservoir water above the dam and the release water. A two-dimensional, laterally averaged hydrodynamic, thermal and dissolved-oxygen model was developed and calibrated for Beaver Lake, Arkansas. The model simulates surface-water elevation, currents, heat transport and dissolved-oxygen dynamics. The model was developed to assess the impacts of proposed increases in minimum flows from 1.76 cubic meters per second (the existing minimum flow) to 3.85 cubic meters per second (the additional minimum flow). Simulations included assessing (1) the impact of additional minimum flows on tailwater temperature and dissolved-oxygen quality and (2) increasing initial water-surface elevation 0.5 meter and assessing the impact of additional minimum flow on tailwater temperatures and dissolved-oxygen concentrations. The additional minimum flow simulation (without increasing initial pool elevation) appeared to increase the water temperature (<0.9 degrees Celsius) and decrease dissolved oxygen concentration (<2.2 milligrams per liter) in the outflow discharge. Conversely, the additional minimum flow plus initial increase in pool elevation (0.5 meter) simulation appeared to decrease outflow water temperature (0.5 degrees Celsius) and increase dissolved oxygen concentration (<1.2 milligrams per liter) through time. However, results from both minimum flow scenarios for both water temperature and dissolved oxygen concentration were within the boundaries or similar to the error between measured and simulated water column profile values.

Stochastic modelling of the monthly average maximum and minimum temperature patterns in India 1981-2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Narasimha Murthy, K. V.; Saravana, R.; Vijaya Kumar, K.

2018-04-01

The paper investigates the stochastic modelling and forecasting of monthly average maximum and minimum temperature patterns through suitable seasonal auto regressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model for the period 1981-2015 in India. The variations and distributions of monthly maximum and minimum temperatures are analyzed through Box plots and cumulative distribution functions. The time series plot indicates that the maximum temperature series contain sharp peaks in almost all the years, while it is not true for the minimum temperature series, so both the series are modelled separately. The possible SARIMA model has been chosen based on observing autocorrelation function (ACF), partial autocorrelation function (PACF), and inverse autocorrelation function (IACF) of the logarithmic transformed temperature series. The SARIMA (1, 0, 0) × (0, 1, 1)12 model is selected for monthly average maximum and minimum temperature series based on minimum Bayesian information criteria. The model parameters are obtained using maximum-likelihood method with the help of standard error of residuals. The adequacy of the selected model is determined using correlation diagnostic checking through ACF, PACF, IACF, and p values of Ljung-Box test statistic of residuals and using normal diagnostic checking through the kernel and normal density curves of histogram and Q-Q plot. Finally, the forecasting of monthly maximum and minimum temperature patterns of India for the next 3 years has been noticed with the help of selected model.

Digital archive of drilling mud weight pressures and wellbore temperatures from 49 regional cross sections of 967 well logs in Louisiana and Texas, onshore Gulf of Mexico basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burke, Lauri A.; Kinney, Scott A.; Kola-Kehinde, Temidayo B.

2011-01-01

This document provides the digital archive of in-situ temperature and drilling mud weight pressure data that were compiled from several historical sources. The data coverage includes the states of Texas and Louisiana in the Gulf of Mexico basin. Data are also provided graphically, for both Texas and Louisiana, as plots of temperature as a function of depth and pressure as a function of depth. The minimum, arithmetic average, and maximum values are tabulated for each 1,000-foot depth increment for temperature as well as pressure in the Texas and Louisiana data.

Thermal comfort zone of the hands, feet and head in males and females.

PubMed

Ciuha, Urša; Mekjavic, Igor B

2017-10-01

The present study compared the thermal comfort zones (TCZ) of the hands, feet and head in eight male and eight female participants, assessed with water-perfused segments (WPS). On separate occasions, and separated by a minimum of one day, participants were requested to regulate the temperature of three distal skin regions (hands, feet and head) within their TCZ. On each occasion they donned a specific water-perfused segment (WPS), either gloves, socks or hood for assessing the TCZ of the hands, feet and head, respectively. In the absence of regulation, the temperature of the water perfusing the WPS changed in a saw-tooth manner from 10 to 50°C; by depressing a switch and reversing the direction of the temperature at the limits of the TCZ, each participant defined the TCZ for each skin region investigated. The range of regulated temperatures (upper and lower limits of the TCZ) did not differ between studied skin regions or between genders. Participants however maintained higher head (35.7±0.4°C; p˂0.001) skin temperature (Tsk) compared to hands (34.5±0.8°C) and feet (33.8±1.1°C). When exposed to normothermic conditions, distal skin regions do not differ in ranges of temperatures, perceived as thermally comfortable. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Modeling the effects of climate on date palm scale ( Parlatoria blanchardi) population dynamics during different phenological stages of life history under hot arid conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Idder-Ighili, Hakima; Idder, Mohamed Azzedine; Doumandji-Mitiche, Bahia; Chenchouni, Haroun

2015-10-01

The date palm scale (DPS) Parlatoria blanchardi is a serious pest due to the damage it inflicts on its host tree ( Phoenix dactylifera). To develop an effective control against DPS in arid regions, it is essential to know its bio-ecology including population dynamics and climatic factors influencing the duration and timing of life history and also the densities of different phenological stages (crawlers, first and second instars nymphs, adult males, and adult females). Monitoring of biological cycle and population dynamics of the pest were achieved through weekly counts of DPS densities on leaflets sampled at different position of date palm trees in an oasis of Ouargla region (Algerian Sahara Desert). Within this hyper-arid region, DPS established four generations per year, the most important was the spring generation. Two overlapping generations occurred in spring-early summer and two in autumn-early winter; these two pairs of generations were interspersed by two phases of high-mortality rates, the first corresponds to winter cold and the second refers to the extreme heat of summer. Statistical analysis of the effects of the studied climatic conditions (minimum, maximum and mean temperatures, precipitation, humidity, wind, rain days, and climatic indices) on the DPS densities at different phenological stages showed great variability from one stage to another. Among these, adult females were the most affected by climate factors. For the total DPS population, high values of minimum temperatures negatively affected population density, while high maximum temperatures, hygrometry, and De Martonne aridity index showed a positive influence.

Modeling the effects of climate on date palm scale (Parlatoria blanchardi) population dynamics during different phenological stages of life history under hot arid conditions.

PubMed

Idder-Ighili, Hakima; Idder, Mohamed Azzedine; Doumandji-Mitiche, Bahia; Chenchouni, Haroun

2015-10-01

The date palm scale (DPS) Parlatoria blanchardi is a serious pest due to the damage it inflicts on its host tree (Phoenix dactylifera). To develop an effective control against DPS in arid regions, it is essential to know its bio-ecology including population dynamics and climatic factors influencing the duration and timing of life history and also the densities of different phenological stages (crawlers, first and second instars nymphs, adult males, and adult females). Monitoring of biological cycle and population dynamics of the pest were achieved through weekly counts of DPS densities on leaflets sampled at different position of date palm trees in an oasis of Ouargla region (Algerian Sahara Desert). Within this hyper-arid region, DPS established four generations per year, the most important was the spring generation. Two overlapping generations occurred in spring-early summer and two in autumn-early winter; these two pairs of generations were interspersed by two phases of high-mortality rates, the first corresponds to winter cold and the second refers to the extreme heat of summer. Statistical analysis of the effects of the studied climatic conditions (minimum, maximum and mean temperatures, precipitation, humidity, wind, rain days, and climatic indices) on the DPS densities at different phenological stages showed great variability from one stage to another. Among these, adult females were the most affected by climate factors. For the total DPS population, high values of minimum temperatures negatively affected population density, while high maximum temperatures, hygrometry, and De Martonne aridity index showed a positive influence.

The Interannual Stability of Cumulative Frequency Distributions for Convective System Size and Intensity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mohr, Karen I.; Molinari, John; Thorncroft, Chris

2009-01-01

The characteristics of convective system populations in West Africa and the western Pacific tropical cyclone basin were analyzed to investigate whether interannual variability in convective activity in tropical continental and oceanic environments is driven by variations in the number of events during the wet season or by favoring large and/or intense convective systems. Convective systems were defined from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data as a cluster of pixels with an 85-GHz polarization-corrected brightness temperature below 255 K and with an area of at least 64 square kilometers. The study database consisted of convective systems in West Africa from May to September 1998-2007, and in the western Pacific from May to November 1998-2007. Annual cumulative frequency distributions for system minimum brightness temperature and system area were constructed for both regions. For both regions, there were no statistically significant differences between the annual curves for system minimum brightness temperature. There were two groups of system area curves, split by the TRMM altitude boost in 2001. Within each set, there was no statistically significant interannual variability. Subsetting the database revealed some sensitivity in distribution shape to the size of the sampling area, the length of the sample period, and the climate zone. From a regional perspective, the stability of the cumulative frequency distributions implied that the probability that a convective system would attain a particular size or intensity does not change interannually. Variability in the number of convective events appeared to be more important in determining whether a year is either wetter or drier than normal.

Role of resolution in regional climate change projections over China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Ying; Wang, Guiling; Gao, Xuejie

2017-11-01

This paper investigates the sensitivity of projected future climate changes over China to the horizontal resolution of a regional climate model RegCM4.4 (RegCM), using RCP8.5 as an example. Model validation shows that RegCM performs better in reproducing the spatial distribution and magnitude of present-day temperature, precipitation and climate extremes than the driving global climate model HadGEM2-ES (HadGEM, at 1.875° × 1.25° degree resolution), but little difference is found between the simulations at 50 and 25 km resolutions. Comparison with observational data at different resolutions confirmed the added value of the RCM and finer model resolutions in better capturing the probability distribution of precipitation. However, HadGEM and RegCM at both resolutions project a similar pattern of significant future warming during both winter and summer, and a similar pattern of winter precipitation changes including dominant increase in most areas of northern China and little change or decrease in the southern part. Projected precipitation changes in summer diverge among the three models, especially over eastern China, with a general increase in HadGEM, little change in RegCM at 50 km, and a mix of increase and decrease in RegCM at 25 km resolution. Changes of temperature-related extremes (annual total number of daily maximum temperature > 25 °C, the maximum value of daily maximum temperature, the minimum value of daily minimum temperature in the three simulations especially in the two RegCM simulations are very similar to each other; so are the precipitation-related extremes (maximum consecutive dry days, maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation and extremely wet days' total amount). Overall, results from this study indicate a very low sensitivity of projected changes in this region to model resolution. While fine resolution is critical for capturing the spatial variability of the control climate, it may not be as important for capturing the climate response to homogeneous forcing (in this case greenhouse gas concentration changes).

Raised temperatures over the Kericho tea estates: revisiting the climate in the East African highlands malaria debate

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Whether or not observed increases in malaria incidence in the Kenyan Highlands during the last thirty years are associated with co-varying changes in local temperature, possibly connected to global changes in climate, has been debated for over a decade. Studies, using differing data sets and methodologies, produced conflicting results regarding the occurrence of temperature trends and their likelihood of being responsible, at least in part, for the increases in malaria incidence in the highlands of western Kenya. A time series of quality controlled daily temperature and rainfall data from Kericho, in the Kenyan Highlands, may help resolve the controversy. If significant temperature trends over the last three decades have occurred then climate should be included (along with other factors such as land use change and drug resistance) as a potential driver of the observed increases in malaria in the region. Methods Over 30 years (1 January 1979 to 31 December 2009) of quality controlled daily observations ( > 97% complete) of maximum, minimum and mean temperature were used in the analysis of trends at Kericho meteorological station, sited in a tea growing area of Kenya's western highlands. Inhomogeneities in all the time series were identified and corrected. Linear trends were identified via a least-squares regression analysis with statistical significance assessed using a two-tailed t-test. These 'gold standard' meteorological observations were compared with spatially interpolated temperature datasets that have been developed for regional or global applications. The relationship of local climate processes with larger climate variations, including tropical sea surface temperatures (SST), and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was also assessed. Results An upward trend of ≈0.2°C/decade was observed in all three temperature variables (P < 0.01). Mean temperature variations in Kericho were associated with large-scale climate variations including tropical SST (r = 0.50; p < 0.01). Local rainfall was found to have inverse effects on minimum and maximum temperature. Three versions of a spatially interpolated temperature data set showed markedly different trends when compared with each other and with the Kericho station observations. Conclusion This study presents evidence of a warming trend in observed maximum, minimum and mean temperatures at Kericho during the period 1979 to 2009 using gold standard meteorological observations. Although local factors may be contributing to these trends, the findings are consistent with variability and trends that have occurred in correlated global climate processes. Climate should therefore not be dismissed as a potential driver of observed increases in malaria seen in the region during recent decades, however its relative importance compared to other factors needs further elaboration. Climate services, pertinent to the achievement of development targets such as the Millennium Development Goals and the analysis of infectious disease in the context of climate variability and change are being developed and should increase the availability of relevant quality controlled climate data for improving development decisions. The malaria community should seize this opportunity to make their needs heard. PMID:21241505

Global conditions in the solar corona from 2010 to 2017

PubMed Central

Morgan, Huw; Taroyan, Youra

2017-01-01

Through reduction of a huge data set spanning 2010–2017, we compare mean global changes in temperature, emission measure (EM), and underlying photospheric magnetic field of the solar corona over most of the last activity cycle. The quiet coronal mean temperature rises from 1.4 to 1.8 MK, whereas EM increases by almost a factor of 50% from solar minimum to maximum. An increased high-temperature component near 3 MK at solar maximum drives the increase in quiet coronal mean temperature, whereas the bulk of the plasma remains near 1.6 MK throughout the cycle. The mean, spatially smoothed magnitude of the quiet Sun magnetic field rises from 1.6 G in 2011 to peak at 2.0 G in 2015. Active region conditions are highly variable, but their mean remains approximately constant over the cycle, although there is a consistent decrease in active region high-temperature emission (near 3 MK) between the peak of solar maximum and present. Active region mean temperature, EM, and magnetic field magnitude are highly correlated. Correlation between sunspot/active region area and quiet coronal conditions shows the important influence of decaying sunspots in driving global changes, although we find no appreciable delay between changes in active region area and quiet Sun magnetic field strength. The hot coronal contribution to extreme ultraviolet (EUV) irradiance is dominated by the quiet corona throughout most of the cycle, whereas the high variability is driven by active regions. Solar EUV irradiance cannot be predicted accurately by sunspot index alone, highlighting the need for continued measurements. PMID:28740861

X-Ray Diffraction Study of the Internal Structure of Supercooled Water

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dorsch, Robert G.; Boyd, Bemrose

1951-01-01

A Bragg X-ray spectrometer equipped with a volume-sensitive Geiger counter and Soller slits and employing filtered molybdenum Ka radiation was used to obtain a set of diffracted intensity curves as a Punction of angle for supercooled water. Diffracted intensity curves in the temperature region of 21 to -16 C were obtained. The minimum between the two main diffraction peaks deepened continuously with lowering temperature, indicating a gradual change in the internal structure of the water. No discontinuity in this trend was noted at the melting point. The internal structure of supercooled water was concluded to become progressively more ice-like as the temperature is lowered.

Conceptual Model of Hydrologic and Thermal Conditions of the Eastbank Aquifer System near Rocky Reach Dam, Douglas County, Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

van Heeswijk, Marijke; Cox, Stephen E.; Huffman, Raegan L.; Curran, Christopher A.

2008-01-01

The Lower and Combined Aquifers of the Eastbank Aquifer system, located in a river-terrace deposit along the Columbia River near Rocky Reach Dam, Washington, are primarily recharged by the Columbia River and provide water to the Eastbank Hatchery and the regional water system servicing the cities of Wenatchee, East Wenatchee, and parts of unincorporated Chelan and Douglas Counties. In 2006, mean annual pumpage from the aquifers by the hatchery and regional water system was about 43 and 16 cubic feet per second, respectively. Reportedly, temperatures of ground water pumped by the hatchery have been increasing, thereby making water potentially too warm for salmonid fish production. An evaluation of hourly ground-water and river temperatures from January 1991 through August 2007 indicates increasing interannual trends in temperatures in most of the Lower and Combined Aquifers from 1999 through 2006 that correspond to increasing trends in the annual mean and annual maximum river temperatures during the same period of 0.07 and 0.17?C per year, respectively. There were no trends in the annual minimum river temperatures from 1999 through 2006, and there were no trends in the annual minimum, mean, and maximum river temperatures from 1991 through 1998 and from 1991 through 2007. Increases in river temperatures from 1999 through 2006 are within the natural variability of the river temperatures. Most of the Lower and Combined Aquifers reached thermal equilibrium?defined by constant time lags between changes in river temperatures and subsequent changes in ground-water temperatures?during 1991?98. The only exceptions are the Combined Aquifer north of the well field of the regional water system, which had not reached thermal equilibrium by 2006, and the Lower Aquifer west of the well fields of the hatchery and the regional water system, which reached thermal equilibrium prior to 1991. Because most of the Lower and Combined Aquifers were in thermal equilibrium from 1999 through 2006 and seasonal pumpage patterns were relatively stable, reported trends of increasing temperatures of water pumped by the hatchery well field are most likely explained by increasing trends in river temperatures. Most of the water pumped by the hatchery well field recharges in an area west to southwest of the well field about 2 months prior to the time it is pumped from the aquifer. The northern extent of the hatchery well field may pump some colder water from a bedrock depression to the north and west of the well field. The conceptual model of hydrologic and thermal conditions is supported by analyses of historical water temperatures, water-level data collected on July 18, 2007, and dissolved-constituent and bacterial concentrations in samples collected on August 20?22, 2007.

Climate and respiratory disease in Auckland, New Zealand.

PubMed

Gosai, Ashmita; Salinger, James; Dirks, Kim

2009-12-01

Increases in the incidence of diseases are often observed during the cold winter months, particularly in cities in temperate climates. The study aim is to describe daily, monthly and seasonal trends in respiratory hospital admissions with climate in Auckland, New Zealand. Daily hospital admissions for total respiratory infections or inflammations (RII), total bronchitis and asthma (BA), and total whooping cough and acute bronchitis (TWCAB) for various age groups and ethnicities were obtained for the Auckland Region and compared with climate parameters on daily, monthly and seasonal time scales. Seasonal and monthly relationships with minimum temperature were very strong (p<0.001) for RII over all age groups, for BA in the older age groups (14-64, 65+) and for TWCAB in the <1 year old age group. European, NZ Māori and Pacific Islanders all showed increases in admissions as temperatures decreased. Pacific Islanders were particularly susceptible to RII. There was a lag in admissions of three to seven days after a temperature event. Results show that increases in respiratory admissions are strongly linked to minimum temperatures during winter, typical of cities with temperate climates and poorly-insulated houses. There are implications for hospital bed and staffing planning in Auckland hospitals.

Weather Variability, Tides, and Barmah Forest Virus Disease in the Gladstone Region, Australia

PubMed Central

Naish, Suchithra; Hu, Wenbiao; Nicholls, Neville; Mackenzie, John S.; McMichael, Anthony J.; Dale, Pat; Tong, Shilu

2006-01-01

In this study we examined the impact of weather variability and tides on the transmission of Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease and developed a weather-based forecasting model for BFV disease in the Gladstone region, Australia. We used seasonal autoregressive integrated moving-average (SARIMA) models to determine the contribution of weather variables to BFV transmission after the time-series data of response and explanatory variables were made stationary through seasonal differencing. We obtained data on the monthly counts of BFV cases, weather variables (e.g., mean minimum and maximum temperature, total rainfall, and mean relative humidity), high and low tides, and the population size in the Gladstone region between January 1992 and December 2001 from the Queensland Department of Health, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Queensland Department of Transport, and Australian Bureau of Statistics, respectively. The SARIMA model shows that the 5-month moving average of minimum temperature (β = 0.15, p-value < 0.001) was statistically significantly and positively associated with BFV disease, whereas high tide in the current month (β = −1.03, p-value = 0.04) was statistically significantly and inversely associated with it. However, no significant association was found for other variables. These results may be applied to forecast the occurrence of BFV disease and to use public health resources in BFV control and prevention. PMID:16675420

Anisotropic ion heating and BBELF waves within the low-altitude ion upflow region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, Y.; Knudsen, D. J.; Burchill, J. K.; James, H. G.; Miles, D. M.

2016-12-01

Previous studies have shown that low-energy (<10 eV) ion upflow energization processes involve multiple steps. At the initial stage, contributions from transverse-to-B ion heating by wave-particle interaction (WPI) are often underestimated. The wave-generation mechanisms, the specific wave modes leading to the ion heating, and the minimum altitude where WPI takes place remain unresolved. With this in mind, we statistically investigate the relation between anisotropic ion temperature enhancements and broadband extremely low frequency (BBELF) wave emissions within the ion upflow region using data from the Suprathermal Electron imager (SEI), the Fluxgate Magnetometer (MGF), and the Radio Receiver Instrument (RRI) onboard the e-POP satellite. Initial results demonstrate that perpendicular-to-B ion temperatures can reach up to 4.3 eV in approximately 1 km wide spatial region near 410 km altitude inside an active auroral surge. Intense small-scale field-aligned currents (FACs) as well as strong BBELF wave emissions, comprising electromagnetic waves below 80 Hz and electrostatic waves above, accompany these ion heating events. The minimum altitude of potential WPI reported here is lower than as previously suggested as 520 km by Frederick-Frost et al. 2007. We measure polarization and power spectral density for specific wave modes to explore the nature of ion heating within the BBELF waves. Acknowledgement: This research is supported by an Eyes High Doctoral Recruitment Scholarship at University of Calgary.

Modeling the survivability of brucella to exposure of Ultraviolet radiation and temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Howe, R.

Accumulated summation of daily Ultra Violet-B (UV-B = 290? to 320 ? ) data? from The USDA Ultraviolet Radiation Monitoring Program show good correlation (R^2 = 77%) with daily temperature data during the five month period from February through June, 1998. Exposure of disease organisms, such as brucella to the effects of accumulated UV-B radiation, can be modeled for a 5 month period from February through June, 1998. Estimates of a lethal dosage for brucell of UV-B in the environment is dependent on minimum/maximum temperature and Solar Zenith Angle for the time period. The accumulated increase in temperature over this period also effects the decomposition of an aborted fetus containing brucella. Decomposition begins at some minimum daily temperature at 27 to 30 degrees C and peaks at 39 to 40C. It is useful to view the summation of temperature as a threshold for other bacteria growth, so that accumulated temperature greater than some value causes decomposition through competition with other bacteria and brucella die from the accumulated effects of UV-B, temperature and organism competition. Results of a study (Cook 1998) to determine survivability of brucellosis in the environment through exposure of aborted bovine fetuses show no one cause can be attributed to death of the disease agent. The combination of daily increase in temperature and accumulated UV-B radiation reveal an inverse correlation to survivability data and can be modeled as an indicator of brucella survivability in the environment in arid regions.

On the Trend of the Annual Mean, Maximum, and Minimum Temperature and the Diurnal Temperature Range in the Armagh Observatory, Northern Ireland, Dataset, 1844 -2012

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert M.

2013-01-01

Examined are the annual averages, 10-year moving averages, decadal averages, and sunspot cycle (SC) length averages of the mean, maximum, and minimum surface air temperatures and the diurnal temperature range (DTR) for the Armagh Observatory, Northern Ireland, during the interval 1844-2012. Strong upward trends are apparent in the Armagh surface-air temperatures (ASAT), while a strong downward trend is apparent in the DTR, especially when the ASAT data are averaged by decade or over individual SC lengths. The long-term decrease in the decadaland SC-averaged annual DTR occurs because the annual minimum temperatures have risen more quickly than the annual maximum temperatures. Estimates are given for the Armagh annual mean, maximum, and minimum temperatures and the DTR for the current decade (2010-2019) and SC24.

Rainfall and temperature changes and variability in the Upper East Region of Ghana

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Issahaku, Abdul-Rahaman; Campion, Benjamin Betey; Edziyie, Regina

2016-08-01

The aim of the research was to assess the current trend and variation in rainfall and temperature in the Upper East Region, Ghana, using time series moving average analysis and decomposition methods. Meteorological data obtained from the Ghana Meteorological Agency in Accra, Ghana, from 1954 to 2014 were used in the models. The additive decomposition model was used to analyze the rainfall because the seasonal variation was relatively constant over time, while the multiplicative model was used for both the daytime and nighttime temperatures because their seasonal variations increase over time. The monthly maximum and the minimum values for the entire period were as follows: rainfall 455.50 and 0.00 mm, nighttime temperature 29.10°C and 13.25°C and daytime temperature 41.10°C and 26.10°C, respectively. Also, while rainfall was decreasing, nighttime and daytime temperatures were increasing in decadal times. Since both the daytime and nighttime temperatures were increasing and rainfall was decreasing, climate extreme events such as droughts could result and affect agriculture in the region, which is predominantly rain fed. Also, rivers, dams, and dugouts are likely to dry up in the region. It was also observed that there was much variation in rainfall making prediction difficult. Day temperatures were generally high with the months of March and April have been the highest. The months of December recorded the lowest night temperature. Inhabitants are therefore advised to sleep in well-ventilated rooms during the warmest months and wear protective clothing during the cold months to avoid contracting climate-related diseases.

40 CFR 63.1257 - Test methods and compliance procedures.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

...)(2), or 63.1256(h)(2)(i)(C) with a minimum residence time of 0.5 seconds and a minimum temperature of... temperature of the organic HAP, must consider the vent stream flow rate, and must establish the design minimum and average temperature in the combustion zone and the combustion zone residence time. (B) For a...

40 CFR 63.1257 - Test methods and compliance procedures.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

...)(2), or 63.1256(h)(2)(i)(C) with a minimum residence time of 0.5 seconds and a minimum temperature of... temperature of the organic HAP, must consider the vent stream flow rate, and must establish the design minimum and average temperature in the combustion zone and the combustion zone residence time. (B) For a...

40 CFR 63.1257 - Test methods and compliance procedures.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

...)(2), or 63.1256(h)(2)(i)(C) with a minimum residence time of 0.5 seconds and a minimum temperature of... temperature of the organic HAP, must consider the vent stream flow rate, and must establish the design minimum and average temperature in the combustion zone and the combustion zone residence time. (B) For a...

Importance of understanding landscape biases in USGS gage locations: Implications and solutions for managers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wagner, Tyler; DeWeber, Jefferson Tyrell; Tsang, Yin-Phan; Krueger, Damon; Whittier, Joanna B.; Infante, Dana M.; Whelan, Gary

2014-01-01

Flow and water temperature are fundamental properties of stream ecosystems upon which many freshwater resource management decisions are based. U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) gages are the most important source of streamflow and water temperature data available nationwide, but the degree to which gages represent landscape attributes of the larger population of streams has not been thoroughly evaluated. We identified substantial biases for seven landscape attributes in one or more regions across the conterminous United States. Streams with small watersheds (<10 km2) and at high elevations were often underrepresented, and biases were greater for water temperature gages and in arid regions. Biases can fundamentally alter management decisions and at a minimum this potential for error must be acknowledged accurately and transparently. We highlight three strategies that seek to reduce bias or limit errors arising from bias and illustrate how one strategy, supplementing USGS data, can greatly reduce bias.

The effect of air temperature and human thermal indices on mortality in Athens, Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nastos, Panagiotis T.; Matzarakis, Andreas

2012-05-01

This paper investigates whether there is any association between the daily mortality for the wider region of Athens, Greece and the thermal conditions, for the 10-year period 1992-2001. The daily mortality datasets were acquired from the Hellenic Statistical Service and the daily meteorological datasets, concerning daily maximum and minimum air temperature, from the Hellinikon/Athens meteorological station, established at the headquarters of the Greek Meteorological Service. Besides, the daily values of the thermal indices Physiologically Equivalent Temperature (PET) and Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) were evaluated in order to interpret the grade of physiological stress. The first step was the application of Pearson's χ 2 test to the compiled contingency tables, resulting in that the probability of independence is zero ( p = 0.000); namely, mortality is in close relation to the air temperature and PET/UTCI. Furthermore, the findings extracted by the generalized linear models showed that, statistically significant relationships ( p < 0.01) between air temperature, PET, UTCI and mortality exist on the same day. More concretely, on one hand during the cold period (October-March), a 10°C decrease in daily maximum air temperature, minimum air temperature, temperature range, PET and UTCI is related with an increase 13%, 15%, 2%, 7% and 6% of the probability having a death, respectively. On the other hand, during the warm period (April-September), a 10°C increase in daily maximum air temperature, minimum air temperature, temperature range, PET and UTCI is related with an increase 3%, 1%, 10%, 3% and 5% of the probability having a death, respectively. Taking into consideration the time lag effect of the examined parameters on mortality, it was found that significant effects of 3-day lag during the cold period appears against 1-day lag during the warm period. In spite of the general aspect that cold conditions seem to be favourable factors for daily mortality, the air temperature and PET/UTCI exceedances over specific thresholds depending on the distribution reveal that, very hot conditions are risk factors for the daily mortality.

Inter-annual Variability of Temperature and Extreme Heat Events during the Nairobi Warm Season

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scott, A.; Misiani, H. O.; Zaitchik, B. F.; Ouma, G. O.; Anyah, R. O.; Jordan, A.

2016-12-01

Extreme heat events significantly stress all organisms in the ecosystem, and are likely to be amplified in peri-urban and urban areas. Understanding the variability and drivers behind these events is key to generating early warnings, yet in Equatorial East Africa, this information is currently unavailable. This study uses daily maximum and minimum temperature records from weather stations within Nairobi and its surroundings to characterize variability in daily minimum temperatures and the number of extreme heat events. ERA-Interim reanalysis is applied to assess the drivers of these events at event and seasonal time scales. At seasonal time scales, high temperatures in Nairobi are a function of large scale climate variability associated with the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) and Global Mean Sea Surface Temperature (GMSST). Extreme heat events, however, are more strongly associated with the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). For instance, the persistence of AMO and ENSO, in particular, provide a basis for seasonal prediction of extreme heat events/days in Nairobi. It is also apparent that the temporal signal from extreme heat events in tropics differs from classic heat wave definitions developed in the mid-latitudes, which suggests that a new approach for defining these events is necessary for tropical regions.

An Active Fire Temperature Retrieval Model Using Hyperspectral Remote Sensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quigley, K. W.; Roberts, D. A.; Miller, D.

2017-12-01

Wildfire is both an important ecological process and a dangerous natural threat that humans face. In situ measurements of wildfire temperature are notoriously difficult to collect due to dangerous conditions. Imaging spectrometry data has the potential to provide some of the most accurate and highest temporally-resolved active fire temperature retrieval information for monitoring and modeling. Recent studies on fire temperature retrieval have used have used Multiple Endmember Spectral Mixture Analysis applied to Airborne Visible applied to Airborne Visible / Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) bands to model fire temperatures within the regions marked to contain fire, but these methods are less effective at coarser spatial resolutions, as linear mixing methods are degraded by saturation within the pixel. The assumption of a distribution of temperatures within pixels allows us to model pixels with an effective maximum and likely minimum temperature. This assumption allows a more robust approach to modeling temperature at different spatial scales. In this study, instrument-corrected radiance is forward-modeled for different ranges of temperatures, with weighted temperatures from an effective maximum temperature to a likely minimum temperature contributing to the total radiance of the modeled pixel. Effective maximum fire temperature is estimated by minimizing the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) between modeled and measured fires. The model was tested using AVIRIS collected over the 2016 Sherpa Fire in Santa Barbara County, California,. While only in situ experimentation would be able to confirm active fire temperatures, the fit of the data to modeled radiance can be assessed, as well as the similarity in temperature distributions seen on different spatial resolution scales. Results show that this model improves upon current modeling methods in producing similar effective temperatures on multiple spatial scales as well as a similar modeled area distribution of those temperatures.

Regional and seasonal limitations for Mars intrinsic ecopoiesis.

PubMed

Badescu, Viorel

2005-04-01

Mars ecopoiesis is a human controlled process consisting in changes needed for anaerobic life to be established on planet surface. The daily minimum temperature on present day Mars is well below the water freezing point, due to the low thermal inertia of the surface. A simple time-dependent model to evaluate the ground temperature is developed here. It takes into account the incident solar radiation, the greenhouse effect and surface thermal inertia. The model is applied to two modified Martian atmospheres. Increasing surface thermal inertia seems to be necessary for Mars intrinsic ecopoiesis. This can be done either by removing the regolith layer covering the bedrock or by regolith compression. The Northern hemisphere of the terraformed Mars appears to be more hospitable than the Southern hemisphere, because the amplitude of the daily temperature excursion there is lower and the freezing temperature appears at higher latitudes. A regional (and seasonal) terraforming of Mars is suggested. c2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Contribution of urbanization to the increase of extreme heat events in an urban agglomeration in east China: Urbanization and the Increase of EHEs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yang, Xuchao; Ruby Leung, L.; Zhao, Naizhuo

The urban agglomeration of Yangtze River Delta (YRD) is emblematic of China’s rapid urbanization during the past decades. Based on homogenized daily maximum and minimum temperature data, the contributions of urbanization to trends of extreme temperature indices (ETIs) during summer in YRD are evaluated. Dynamically classifying the observational stations into urban and rural areas, this study presents unexplored changes in temperature extremes during the past four decades in the YRD region and quantifies the amplification of the positive trends in ETIs by the urban heat island effect. Overall, urbanization contributes to more than one third in the increase of intensitymore » of extreme heat events in the region, which is comparable to the contribution of greenhouse gases. Compared to rural stations, more notable shifts to the right in the probability distribution of temperature and ETIs were observed in urban stations.« less

Regional climate change study requires new temperature datasets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, K.; Zhou, C.

2016-12-01

Analyses of global mean air temperature (Ta), i. e., NCDC GHCN, GISS, and CRUTEM4, are the fundamental datasets for climate change study and provide key evidence for global warming. All of the global temperature analyses over land are primarily based on meteorological observations of the daily maximum and minimum temperatures (Tmax and Tmin) and their averages (T2) because in most weather stations, the measurements of Tmax and Tmin may be the only choice for a homogenous century-long analysis of mean temperature. Our studies show that these datasets are suitable for long-term global warming studies. However, they may introduce substantial bias in quantifying local and regional warming rates, i.e., with a root mean square error of more than 25% at 5°x 5° grids. From 1973 to 1997, the current datasets tend to significantly underestimate the warming rate over the central U.S. and overestimate the warming rate over the northern high latitudes. Similar results revealed during the period 1998-2013, the warming hiatus period, indicate the use of T2 enlarges the spatial contrast of temperature trends. This because T2 over land only sample air temperature twice daily and cannot accurately reflect land-atmosphere and incoming radiation variations in the temperature diurnal cycle. For better regional climate change detection and attribution, we suggest creating new global mean air temperature datasets based on the recently available high spatiotemporal resolution meteorological observations, i.e., daily four observations weather station since 1960s, These datasets will not only help investigate dynamical processes on temperature variances but also help better evaluate the reanalyzed and modeled simulations of temperature and make some substantial improvements for other related climate variables in models, especially over regional and seasonal aspects.

Regional climate change study requires new temperature datasets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Kaicun; Zhou, Chunlüe

2017-04-01

Analyses of global mean air temperature (Ta), i. e., NCDC GHCN, GISS, and CRUTEM4, are the fundamental datasets for climate change study and provide key evidence for global warming. All of the global temperature analyses over land are primarily based on meteorological observations of the daily maximum and minimum temperatures (Tmax and Tmin) and their averages (T2) because in most weather stations, the measurements of Tmax and Tmin may be the only choice for a homogenous century-long analysis of mean temperature. Our studies show that these datasets are suitable for long-term global warming studies. However, they may have substantial biases in quantifying local and regional warming rates, i.e., with a root mean square error of more than 25% at 5 degree grids. From 1973 to 1997, the current datasets tend to significantly underestimate the warming rate over the central U.S. and overestimate the warming rate over the northern high latitudes. Similar results revealed during the period 1998-2013, the warming hiatus period, indicate the use of T2 enlarges the spatial contrast of temperature trends. This is because T2 over land only samples air temperature twice daily and cannot accurately reflect land-atmosphere and incoming radiation variations in the temperature diurnal cycle. For better regional climate change detection and attribution, we suggest creating new global mean air temperature datasets based on the recently available high spatiotemporal resolution meteorological observations, i.e., daily four observations weather station since 1960s. These datasets will not only help investigate dynamical processes on temperature variances but also help better evaluate the reanalyzed and modeled simulations of temperature and make some substantial improvements for other related climate variables in models, especially over regional and seasonal aspects.

A Earth Outgoing Longwave Radiation Climate Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Shi-Keng

An Earth outgoing longwave radiation (OLWR) climate model has been constructed for radiation budget study. The model consists of the upward radiative transfer parameterization of Thompson and Warren (1982), the cloud cover model of Sherr et al. (1968) and a monthly average climatology defined by the data from Crutcher and Meserve (1971) and Taljaard et al. (1969). Additional required information is provided by the empirical 100mb water vapor mixing ratio equation of Harries (1976), and the mixing ratio interpolation scheme of Briegleb and Ramanathan (1982). Cloud top temperature is adjusted so that the calculation would agree with NOAA scanning radiometer measurements. Both clear sky and cloudy sky cases are calculated and discussed for global average, zonal average and world-wide distributed cases. The results agree well with the satellite observations. The clear sky case shows that the OLWR field is highly modulated by water vapor, especially in the tropics. The strongest longitudinal variation occurs in the tropics. This variation can be mostly explained by the strong water vapor gradient. Although in the zonal average case the tropics have a minimum in OLWR, the minimum is essentially contributed by a few very low flux regions, such as the Amazon, Indonesia and the Congo. There are regions in the tropics such that their OLWR is as large as that of the subtropics. In the high latitudes, where cold air contains less water vapor, OLWR is basically modulated by the surface temperature. Thus, the topographical heat capacity becomes a dominant factor in determining the distribution. Clouds enhance water vapor modulation of OLWR. Tropical clouds have the coldest cloud top temperatures. This again increases the longitudinal variation in the region. However, in the polar region, where temperature inversion is prominent, cloud top temperature is warmer than the surface. Hence, cloud has the effect of increasing OLWR. The implication of this cloud mechanism is that the latitudinal gradient of net radiation is thus further increased, and the forcing of the general atmospheric circulation is substantially different due to the increased additional available energy. The analysis of the results also suggests that to improve the performance of the Budyko-Sellers type energy balance climate model in the tropical region, the parameterization of the longwave cooling should include a water vapor absorbing term.

The West Nile Virus outbreak in Israel (2000) from a new perspective: the regional impact of climate change.

PubMed

Paz, Shlomit

2006-02-01

The West Nile Virus (WNV) outbreak in Israel in 2000 appeared after medical and climatic warning signs. Re-analysis of the epidemic from a new viewpoint, the regional impact of global warming, especially the worsening in the summers' heat conditions, is presented. The disease appeared averagely at a lag of 3-9 weeks (strongest correlation = lag of 7 weeks). The minimum temperature was found as the most important climatic factor that encourages the disease earlier appearance. Extreme heat is more significant than high air humidity for increasing WNV cases. An early extreme rise in the summer temperature could be a good indicator of increased vector populations. While 93.5% of cases were in the metropolitan areas, the disease was not reported in the sub-arid regions. The outbreak development was comparable to the cases from Romania (1996) and NYC (1999). Each of those epidemics appeared after a long heatwave.

The Effects of Spectral Nudging on Arctic Temperature and Precipitation Extremes as Produced by the Pan-Arctic WRF

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glisan, J. M.; Gutowski, W. J.; Higgins, M.; Cassano, J. J.

2011-12-01

Pan-Arctic WRF (PAW) simulations produced using the 50-km wr50a domain developed for the fully-coupled Regional Arctic Climate Model (RACM) were found to produce deep atmospheric circulation biases over the northern Pacific Ocean, manifested in pressure, geopotential height, and temperature fields. Various remedies were unsuccessfully tested to correct these large biases, such as modifying the physical domain or using different initial/boundary conditions. Spectral (interior) nudging was introduced as a way of constraining the model to be more consistent with observed behavior. However, such control over numerical model behavior raises concerns over how much nudging may affect unforced variability and extremes. Strong nudging may reduce or filter out extreme events, since the nudging pushes the model toward a relatively smooth, large-scale state. The question then becomes - what is the minimum spectral nudging needed to correct the biases occurring on the RACM domain while not limiting PAW simulation of extreme events? To determine this, case studies were devised, using a six-member PAW ensemble on the RACM grid with varying spectral nudging strength. Two simulations were run, one in the cold season (January 2007) and one in a warm season (July 2007). Precipitation and 2-m temperature fields were extracted from the output and analyzed to determine how changing spectral nudging strength impacts both temporal and spatial temperature and precipitation extremes. The maximum and minimum temperatures at each point from among the ensemble members were examined, on the 95th confidence interval. The maximum and minimums over the simulation period will also be considered. Results suggest that there is a marked lack of sensitivity to the degrees of nudging. Moreover, it appears nudging strength can be considerably smaller than the standard strength and still produce reliably good simulations.

The creation of future daily gridded datasets of precipitation and temperature with a spatial weather generator, Cyprus 2020-2050

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Camera, Corrado; Bruggeman, Adriana; Hadjinicolaou, Panos; Pashiardis, Stelios; Lange, Manfred

2014-05-01

High-resolution gridded daily datasets are essential for natural resource management and the analysis of climate changes and their effects. This study aimed to create gridded datasets of daily precipitation and daily minimum and maximum temperature, for the future (2020-2050). The horizontal resolution of the developed datasets is 1 x 1 km2, covering the area under control of the Republic of Cyprus (5.760 km2). The study is divided into two parts. The first consists of the evaluation of the performance of different interpolation techniques for daily rainfall and temperature data (1980-2010) for the creation of the gridded datasets. Rainfall data recorded at 145 stations and temperature data from 34 stations were used. For precipitation, inverse distance weighting (IDW) performs best for local events, while a combination of step-wise geographically weighted regression and IDW proves to be the best method for large scale events. For minimum and maximum temperature, a combination of step-wise linear multiple regression and thin plate splines is recognized as the best method. Six Regional Climate Models (RCMs) for the A1B SRES emission scenario from the EU ENSEMBLE project database were selected as sources for future climate projections. The RCMs were evaluated for their capacity to simulate Cyprus climatology for the period 1980-2010. Data for the period 2020-2050 from the three best performing RCMs were downscaled, using the change factors approach, at the location of observational stations. Daily time series were created with a stochastic rainfall and temperature generator. The RainSim V3 software (Burton et al., 2008) was used to generate spatial-temporal coherent rainfall fields. The temperature generator was developed in R and modeled temperature as a weakly stationary process with the daily mean and standard deviation conditioned on the wet and dry state of the day (Richardson, 1981). Finally gridded datasets depicting projected future climate conditions were created with the identified best interpolation methods. The difference between the input and simulated mean daily rainfall, averaged over all the stations, was 0.03 mm (2.2%), while the error related to the number of dry days was 2 (0.6%). For mean daily minimum temperature the error was 0.005 ºC (0.04%), while for maximum temperature it was 0.01 ºC (0.04%). Overall, the weather generators were found to be reliable instruments for the downscaling of precipitation and temperature. The resulting datasets indicate a decrease of the mean annual rainfall over the study area between 5 and 70 mm (1-15%) for 2020-2050, relative to 1980-2010. Average annual minimum and maximum temperature over the Republic of Cyprus are projected to increase between 1.2 and 1.5 ºC. The dataset is currently used to compute agricultural production and water use indicators, as part of the AGWATER project (AEIFORIA/GEORGO/0311(BIE)/06), co-financed by the European Regional Development Fund and the Republic of Cyprus through the Research Promotion Foundation. Burton, A., Kilsby, C.G., Fowler, H.J., Cowpertwait, P.S.P., and O'Connell, P.E.: RainSim: A spatial-temporal stochastic rainfall modelling system. Environ. Model. Software 23, 1356-1369, 2008 Richardson, C.W.: Stochastic simulation of daily precipitation, temperature, and solar radiation. Water Resour. Res. 17, 182-190, 1981.

Passive microwave structure of severe tornadic storms on 16 November 1987

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Heymsfield, Gerald M.; Fulton, Richard

1994-01-01

Passive microwave observations using the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) are presented for severe tornadic storms in the lower midwestern United States on 16 November 1987. These measurements are compared with Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite infrared (IR) measurements for the same case. The IR observations had a classic 'V' cold feature commonly associated with severe Midwest thunderstorms. The minimum microwave brightness temperatures at 86 GHz, which primarily respond to ice scattering by larger ice particles, were located in the convective region and the warm interior of the anvil top, between the arms of the IR V feature. The interior warm region was the only portion of the entire anvil region that had high 86-GHz polarization difference temperatures. Microphysical implications of these multispectral observations are discussed. The observations suggest that there are large variations of ice microphysical characteristics spatially and vertically in the anvil region. These observations are discussed in the context of previous dynamical and microphysical hypotheses on the IR V feature.

Recent warming trend in the coastal region of Qatar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Way Lee; Saleem, Ayman; Sadr, Reza

2017-04-01

The objective of this study was to analyze long-term temperature-related phenomena in the eastern portion of the Middle East, focusing on the coastal region of Qatar. Extreme temperature indices were examined, which were defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices, for Doha, Qatar; these indices were then compared with those from neighboring countries. The trends were calculated for a 30-year period (1983-2012), using hourly data obtained from the National Climatic Data Center. The results showed spatially consistent warming trends throughout the region. For Doha, 11 of the 12 indices studied showed significant warming trends. In particular, the warming trends were represented by an increase in the number of warm days and nights and a decrease in the number of cool nights and days. The high-temperature extremes during the night have risen at more than twice the rate of their corresponding daytime extremes. The intensity and frequency of hot days have increased, and the minimum temperature indices exhibited a higher rate of warming. The climatic changes in Doha are consistent with the region-wide heat-up in recent decades across the Middle East. However, the rapid economic expansion, increase of population since the 1990s, and urban effects in the region are thought to have intensified the rapidly warming climate pattern observed in Doha since the turn of the century.

Regional Contrasts of the Warming Rate over Land Significantly Depend on the Calculation Methods of Mean Air Temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Kaicun; Zhou, Chunlüe

2016-04-01

Global analyses of surface mean air temperature (Tm) are key datasets for climate change studies and provide fundamental evidences for global warming. However, the causes of regional contrasts in the warming rate revealed by such datasets, i.e., enhanced warming rates over the northern high latitudes and the "warming hole" over the central U.S., are still under debate. Here we show these regional contrasts depends on the calculation methods of Tm. Existing global analyses calculated Tm from daily minimum and maximum temperatures (T2). We found that T2 has a significant standard deviation error of 0.23 °C/decade in depicting the regional warming rate from 2000 to 2013 but can be reduced by two-thirds using Tm calculated from observations at four specific times (T4), which samples diurnal cycle of land surface air temperature more often. From 1973 to 1997, compared with T4, T2 significantly underestimated the warming rate over the central U.S. and overestimated the warming rate over the northern high latitudes. The ratio of the warming rate over China to that over the U.S. reduces from 2.3 by T2 to 1.4 by T4. This study shows that the studies of regional warming can be substantially improved by T4 instead of T2.

Evaluating historical climate and hydrologic trends in the Central Appalachian region of the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaertner, B. A.; Zegre, N.

2015-12-01

Climate change is surfacing as one of the most important environmental and social issues of the 21st century. Over the last 100 years, observations show increasing trends in global temperatures and intensity and frequency of precipitation events such as flooding, drought, and extreme storms. Global circulation models (GCM) show similar trends for historic and future climate indicators, albeit with geographic and topographic variability at regional and local scale. In order to assess the utility of GCM projections for hydrologic modeling, it is important to quantify how robust GCM outputs are compared to robust historical observations at finer spatial scales. Previous research in the United States has primarily focused on the Western and Northeastern regions due to dominance of snow melt for runoff and aquifer recharge but the impact of climate warming in the mountainous central Appalachian Region is poorly understood. In this research, we assess the performance of GCM-generated historical climate compared to historical observations primarily in the context of forcing data for macro-scale hydrologic modeling. Our results show significant spatial heterogeneity of modeled climate indices when compared to observational trends at the watershed scale. Observational data is showing considerable variability within maximum temperature and precipitation trends, with consistent increases in minimum temperature. The geographic, temperature, and complex topographic gradient throughout the central Appalachian region is likely the contributing factor in temperature and precipitation variability. Variable climate changes are leading to more severe and frequent climate events such as temperature extremes and storm events, which can have significant impacts on our drinking water supply, infrastructure, and health of all downstream communities.

Soil and air temperatures for different habitats in Mount Rainier National Park.

Treesearch

Sarah E. Greene; Mark Klopsch

1985-01-01

This paper reports air and soil temperature data from 10 sites in Mount Rainier National Park in Washington State for 2- to 5-year periods. Data provided are monthly summaries for day and night mean air temperatures, mean minimum and maximum air temperatures, absolute minimum and maximum air temperatures, range of air temperatures, mean soil temperature, and absolute...

Simulation of hydrodynamics, temperature, and dissolved oxygen in Table Rock Lake, Missouri, 1996-1997

USGS Publications Warehouse

Green, W. Reed; Galloway, Joel M.; Richards, Joseph M.; Wesolowski, Edwin A.

2003-01-01

Outflow from Table Rock Lake and other White River reservoirs support a cold-water trout fishery of substantial economic yield in south-central Missouri and north-central Arkansas. The Missouri Department of Conservation has requested an increase in existing minimum flows through the Table Rock Lake Dam from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to increase the quality of fishable waters downstream in Lake Taneycomo. Information is needed to assess the effect of increased minimum flows on temperature and dissolved- oxygen concentrations of reservoir water and the outflow. A two-dimensional, laterally averaged, hydrodynamic, temperature, and dissolved-oxygen model, CE-QUAL-W2, was developed and calibrated for Table Rock Lake, located in Missouri, north of the Arkansas-Missouri State line. The model simulates water-surface elevation, heat transport, and dissolved-oxygen dynamics. The model was developed to assess the effects of proposed increases in minimum flow from about 4.4 cubic meters per second (the existing minimum flow) to 11.3 cubic meters per second (the increased minimum flow). Simulations included assessing the effect of (1) increased minimum flows and (2) increased minimum flows with increased water-surface elevations in Table Rock Lake, on outflow temperatures and dissolved-oxygen concentrations. In both minimum flow scenarios, water temperature appeared to stay the same or increase slightly (less than 0.37 ?C) and dissolved oxygen appeared to decrease slightly (less than 0.78 mg/L) in the outflow during the thermal stratification season. However, differences between the minimum flow scenarios for water temperature and dissolved- oxygen concentration and the calibrated model were similar to the differences between measured and simulated water-column profile values.

Progress and prospects of climate change impacts on hydrology in the arid region of northwest China.

PubMed

Chen, Yaning; Li, Zhi; Fan, Yuting; Wang, Huaijun; Deng, Haijun

2015-05-01

The arid region of Northwest China, located in the central Asia, responds sensitively to global climate change. Based on the newest research results, this paper analyzes the impacts of climate change on hydrology and the water cycle in the arid region of Northwest China. The analysis results show that: (1) In the northwest arid region, temperature and precipitation experienced "sharply" increasing in the past 50 years. The precipitation trend changed in 1987, and since then has been in a state of high volatility, during the 21st century, the increasing rate of precipitation was diminished. Temperature experienced a "sharply" increase in 1997; however, this sharp increasing trend has turned to an apparent hiatus since the 21st century. The dramatic rise in winter temperatures in the northwest arid region is an important reason for the rise in the average annual temperature, and substantial increases in extreme winter minimum temperature play an important role in the rising average winter temperature; (2) There was a significant turning point in the change of pan evaporation in the northwest arid area in 1993, i.e., in which a significant decline reversed to a significant upward trend. In the 21st century, the negative effects of global warming and increasing levels of evaporation on the ecology of the northwest arid region have been highlighted; (3) Glacier change has a significant impact on hydrology in the northwest arid area, and glacier inflection points have appeared in some rivers. The melting water supply of the Tarim River Basin possesses a large portion of water supplies (about 50%). In the future, the amount of surface water will probably remain at a high state of fluctuation. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Theory of Collisional Two-Stream Plasma Instabilities in the Solar Chromosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Madsen, Chad Allen; Dimant, Yakov; Oppenheim, Meers; Fontenla, Juan

2014-06-01

The solar chromosphere experiences intense heating just above its temperature minimum. The heating increases the electron temperature in this region by over 2000 K. Furthermore, it exhibits little time variation and appears widespread across the solar disk. Although semi-empirical models, UV continuum observations, and line emission measurements confirm the existence of the heating, its source remains unexplained. Potential heating sources such as acoustic shocks, resistive dissipation, and magnetic reconnection via nanoflares fail to account for the intensity, persistence, and ubiquity of the heating. Fontenla (2005) suggested turbulence from a collisional two-stream plasma instability known as the Farley-Buneman instability (FBI) could contribute significantly to the heating. This instability is known to heat the plasma of the E-region ionosphere which bears many similarities to the chromospheric plasma. However, the ionospheric theory of the FBI does not account for the diverse ion species found in the solar chromosphere. This work develops a new collisional, two-stream instability theory appropriate for the chromospheric plasma environment using a linear fluid analysis to derive a new dispersion relationship and critical E x B drift velocity required to trigger the instability. Using a 1D, non-local thermodynamic equilibrium, radiative transfer model and careful estimates of collision rates and magnetic field strengths, we calculate the trigger velocities necessary to induce the instability throughout the chromosphere. Trigger velocities as low as 4 km s^-1 are found near the temperature minimum, well below the local neutral acoustic speed in that region. From this, we expect the instability to occur frequently, converting kinetic energy contained in neutral convective flows from the photosphere into thermal energy via turbulence. This could contribute significantly to chromospheric heating and explain its persistent and ubiquitous nature.

Potential for thermal tolerance to mediate climate change effects on three members of a cool temperate lizard genus, Niveoscincus.

PubMed

Caldwell, Amanda J; While, Geoffrey M; Beeton, Nicholas J; Wapstra, Erik

2015-08-01

Climatic changes are predicted to be greater in higher latitude and mountainous regions but species specific impacts are difficult to predict. This is partly due to inter-specific variance in the physiological traits which mediate environmental temperature effects at the organismal level. We examined variation in the critical thermal minimum (CTmin), critical thermal maximum (CTmax) and evaporative water loss rates (EWL) of a widespread lowland (Niveoscincus ocellatus) and two range restricted highland (N. microlepidotus and N. greeni) members of a cool temperate Tasmanian lizard genus. The widespread lowland species had significantly higher CTmin and CTmax and significantly lower EWL than both highland species. Implications of inter-specific variation in thermal tolerance for activity were examined under contemporary and future climate change scenarios. Instances of air temperatures below CTmin were predicted to decline in frequency for the widespread lowland and both highland species. Air temperatures of high altitude sites were not predicted to exceed the CTmax of either highland species throughout the 21st century. In contrast, the widespread lowland species is predicted to experience air temperatures in excess of CTmax on 1 or 2 days by three of six global circulation models from 2068-2096. To estimate climate change effects on activity we reran the thermal tolerance models using minimum and maximum temperatures selected for activity. A net gain in available activity time was predicted under climate change for all three species; while air temperatures were predicted to exceed maximum temperatures selected for activity with increasing frequency, the change was not as great as the predicted decline in air temperatures below minimum temperatures selected for activity. We hypothesise that the major effect of rising air temperatures under climate change is an increase in available activity period for both the widespread lowland and highland species. The consequences of a greater available activity period will depend on the extent to which changes in climate alters other related factors, such as the nature and level of competition between the respective species. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Adverse Climatic Conditions and Impact on Construction Scheduling and Cost

DTIC Science & Technology

1988-01-01

ABBREVIATIONS ABS MAX MAX TEMP ...... Absolute maximum maximum temperature ABS MIN MIN TEMP ...... Absolute minimum minimum temperature BTU...o Degrees Farenheit MEAN MAX TEMP o.................... Mean maximum temperature MEAN MIN TEMP...temperatures available, a determination had to be made as to whether forecasts were based on absolute , mean, or statistically derived temperatures

AgMIP Regional Activities in a Global Framework: The Brazil Experience

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Assad, Eduardo D.; Marin, Fabio R.; Valdivia, Roberto O.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia E.

2012-01-01

Climate variability and change are projected to increate the frequency of extreme high-temperature events, floods, and droughts, which can lead to subsequent changes in soil moister in many locations (Alexandrov and Hoogenboom, 2000). In Brazil, observations reveal a tendency for increasing frequency of extreme rainfall events particularly in south Brazil (Alexander et al., 2006; Carvalho et al., 2014; Groissman et al., 2005), as well as projections for increasing extremes in both maximum and minimum temperatures and high spatial variability for rainfall under the IPCC SRES A2 and B2 scenarios (Marengo et al., 2009).

Agricultural losses related to frost events: use of the 850 hPa level temperature as an explanatory variable of the damage cost

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papagiannaki, K.; Lagouvardos, K.; Kotroni, V.; Papagiannakis, G.

2014-01-01

The objective of this study is to analyze frost damaging events in agriculture, by examining the relationship between the daily minimum temperature at the lower atmosphere (at the pressure level of 850 hPa) and crop production losses. Furthermore, the study suggests a methodological approach for estimating agriculture risk due to frost events, with the aim to estimate the short-term probability and magnitude of frost-related financial losses for different levels of 850 hPa temperature. Compared with near surface temperature forecasts, temperature forecast at the level of 850 hPa is less influenced by varying weather conditions, as well as by local topographical features, thus it constitutes a more consistent indicator of the forthcoming weather conditions. The analysis of the daily monetary compensations for insured crop losses caused by weather events in Greece, during the period 1999-2011, shows that frost is the major meteorological phenomenon with adverse effects on crop productivity in the largest part of the country. Two regions of different geographical latitude are further examined, to account for the differences in the temperature ranges developed within their ecological environment. Using a series of linear and logistic regressions, we found that minimum temperature (at 850 hPa level), grouped in three categories according to its magnitude, and seasonality are significant variables when trying to explain crop damage costs, as well as to predict and quantify the likelihood and magnitude of frost damaging events.

Agricultural losses related to frost events: use of the 850 hPa level temperature as an explanatory variable of the damage cost

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papagiannaki, K.; Lagouvardos, K.; Kotroni, V.; Papagiannakis, G.

2014-09-01

The objective of this study is the analysis of damaging frost events in agriculture, by examining the relationship between the daily minimum temperature in the lower atmosphere (at an isobaric level of 850 hPa) and crop production losses. Furthermore, the study suggests a methodological approach for estimating agriculture risk due to frost events, with the aim of estimating the short-term probability and magnitude of frost-related financial losses for different levels of 850 hPa temperature. Compared with near-surface temperature forecasts, temperature forecasts at the level of 850 hPa are less influenced by varying weather conditions or by local topographical features; thus, they constitute a more consistent indicator of the forthcoming weather conditions. The analysis of the daily monetary compensations for insured crop losses caused by weather events in Greece shows that, during the period 1999-2011, frost caused more damage to crop production than any other meteorological phenomenon. Two regions of different geographical latitudes are examined further, to account for the differences in the temperature ranges developed within their ecological environment. Using a series of linear and logistic regressions, we found that minimum temperature (at an 850 hPa level), grouped into three categories according to its magnitude, and seasonality, are significant variables when trying to explain crop damage costs, as well as to predict and quantify the likelihood and magnitude of damaging frost events.

Aroma types of flue-cured tobacco in China: spatial distribution and association with climatic factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Chao; Wu, Wei; Wu, Shu-Cheng; Liu, Hong-Bin; Peng, Qing

2014-02-01

Aroma types of flue-cured tobacco (FCT) are classified into light, medium, and heavy in China. However, the spatial distribution of FCT aroma types and the relationships among aroma types, chemical parameters, and climatic variables were still unknown at national scale. In the current study, multi-year averaged chemical parameters (total sugars, reducing sugars, nicotine, total nitrogen, chloride, and K2O) of FCT samples with grade of C3F and climatic variables (mean, minimum and maximum temperatures, rainfall, relative humidity, and sunshine hours) during the growth periods were collected from main planting areas across China. Significant relationships were found between chemical parameters and climatic variables ( p < 0.05). A spatial distribution map of FCT aroma types were produced using support vector machine algorithms and chemical parameters. Significant differences in chemical parameters and climatic variables were observed among the three aroma types based on one-way analysis of variance ( p < 0.05). Areas with light aroma type had significantly lower values of mean, maximum, and minimum temperatures than regions with medium and heavy aroma types ( p < 0.05). Areas with heavy aroma type had significantly lower values of rainfall and relative humidity and higher values of sunshine hours than regions with light and medium aroma types ( p < 0.05). The output produced by classification and regression trees showed that sunshine hours, rainfall, and maximum temperature were the most important factors affecting FCT aroma types at national scale.

Analysis of temperature trends in Northern Serbia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tosic, Ivana; Gavrilov, Milivoj; Unkašević, Miroslava; Marković, Slobodan; Petrović, Predrag

2017-04-01

An analysis of air temperature trends in Northern Serbia for the annual and seasonal time series is performed for two periods: 1949-2013 and 1979-2013. Three data sets of surface air temperatures: monthly mean temperatures, monthly maximum temperatures, and monthly minimum temperatures are analyzed at 9 stations that have altitudes varying between 75 m and 102 m. Monthly mean temperatures are obtained as the average of the daily mean temperatures, while monthly maximum (minimum) temperatures are the maximum (minimum) values of daily temperatures in corresponding month. Positive trends were found in 29 out of 30 time series, and the negative trend was found only in winter during the period 1979-2013. Applying the Mann-Kendall test, significant positive trends were found in 15 series; 7 in the period 1949-2013 and 8 in the period 1979-2013; and no significant trend was found in 15 series. Significant positive trends are dominated during the year, spring, and summer, where it was found in 14 out of 18 cases. Significant positive trends were found 7, 5, and 3 times in mean, maximum and minimum temperatures, respectively. It was found that the positive temperature trends are dominant in Northern Serbia.

Global-scale high-resolution ( 1 km) modelling of mean, maximum and minimum annual streamflow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barbarossa, Valerio; Huijbregts, Mark; Hendriks, Jan; Beusen, Arthur; Clavreul, Julie; King, Henry; Schipper, Aafke

2017-04-01

Quantifying mean, maximum and minimum annual flow (AF) of rivers at ungauged sites is essential for a number of applications, including assessments of global water supply, ecosystem integrity and water footprints. AF metrics can be quantified with spatially explicit process-based models, which might be overly time-consuming and data-intensive for this purpose, or with empirical regression models that predict AF metrics based on climate and catchment characteristics. Yet, so far, regression models have mostly been developed at a regional scale and the extent to which they can be extrapolated to other regions is not known. We developed global-scale regression models that quantify mean, maximum and minimum AF as function of catchment area and catchment-averaged slope, elevation, and mean, maximum and minimum annual precipitation and air temperature. We then used these models to obtain global 30 arc-seconds (˜ 1 km) maps of mean, maximum and minimum AF for each year from 1960 through 2015, based on a newly developed hydrologically conditioned digital elevation model. We calibrated our regression models based on observations of discharge and catchment characteristics from about 4,000 catchments worldwide, ranging from 100 to 106 km2 in size, and validated them against independent measurements as well as the output of a number of process-based global hydrological models (GHMs). The variance explained by our regression models ranged up to 90% and the performance of the models compared well with the performance of existing GHMs. Yet, our AF maps provide a level of spatial detail that cannot yet be achieved by current GHMs.

Assessment of climate change downscaling and non-stationarity on the spatial pattern of a mangrove ecosystem in an arid coastal region of southern Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Etemadi, Halimeh; Samadi, S. Zahra; Sharifikia, Mohammad; Smoak, Joseph M.

2016-10-01

Mangrove wetlands exist in the transition zone between terrestrial and marine environments and have remarkable ecological and socio-economic value. This study uses climate change downscaling to address the question of non-stationarity influences on mangrove variations (expansion and contraction) within an arid coastal region. Our two-step approach includes downscaling models and uncertainty assessment, followed by a non-stationary and trend procedure using the Extreme Value Analysis (extRemes code). The Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) model along with two different general circulation model (GCMs) (MIRH and HadCM3) were used to downscale climatic variables during current (1968-2011) and future (2011-2030, 2045-2065, and 2080-2099) periods. Parametric and non-parametric bootstrapping uncertainty tests demonstrated that the LARS-WGS model skillfully downscaled climatic variables at the 95 % significance level. Downscaling results using MIHR model show that minimum and maximum temperatures will increase in the future (2011-2030, 2045-2065, and 2080-2099) during winter and summer in a range of +4.21 and +4.7 °C, and +3.62 and +3.55 °C, respectively. HadCM3 analysis also revealed an increase in minimum (˜+3.03 °C) and maximum (˜+3.3 °C) temperatures during wet and dry seasons. In addition, we examined how much mangrove area has changed during the past decades and, thus, if climate change non-stationarity impacts mangrove ecosystems. Our results using remote sensing techniques and the non-parametric Mann-Whitney two-sample test indicated a sharp decline in mangrove area during 1972,1987, and 1997 periods ( p value = 0.002). Non-stationary assessment using the generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions by including mangrove area as a covariate further indicated that the null hypothesis of the stationary climate (no trend) should be rejected due to the very low p values for precipitation ( p value = 0.0027), minimum ( p value = 0.000000029) and maximum ( p value = 0.00016) temperatures. Based on non-stationary analysis and an upward trend in downscaled temperature extremes, climate change may control mangrove development in the future.

Spring-Summer Temperatures Since AD 1780 Reconstructed from Stable Oxygen Isotope Ratios in White Spruce Tree-Rings from the Mackenzie Delta, Northwestern Canada

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Porter, Trevor J.; Pisaric, Michael F. J.; Field, Robert D.; Kokelj, Steven V.; Edwards, Thomas W. D.; deMontigny, Peter; Healy, Richard; LeGrande, Allegra N.

2013-01-01

High-latitude delta(exp 18)O archives deriving from meteoric water (e.g., tree-rings and ice-cores) can provide valuable information on past temperature variability, but stationarity of temperature signals in these archives depends on the stability of moisture source/trajectory and precipitation seasonality, both of which can be affected by atmospheric circulation changes. A tree-ring delta(exp 18)O record (AD 1780-2003) from the Mackenzie Delta is evaluated as a temperature proxy based on linear regression diagnostics. The primary source of moisture for this region is the North Pacific and, thus, North Pacific atmospheric circulation variability could potentially affect the tree-ring delta(exp 18)O-temperature signal. Over the instrumental period (AD 1892-2003), tree-ring delta(exp 18)O explained 29% of interannual variability in April-July minimum temperatures, and the explained variability increases substantially at lower-frequencies. A split-period calibration/verification analysis found the delta(exp 18)O-temperature relation was time-stable, which supported a temperature reconstruction back to AD 1780. The stability of the delta(exp 18)O-temperature signal indirectly implies the study region is insensitive to North Pacific circulation effects, since North Pacific circulation was not constant over the calibration period. Simulations from the NASA-GISS ModelE isotope-enabled general circulation model confirm that meteoric delta(exp 18)O and precipitation seasonality in the study region are likely insensitive to North Pacific circulation effects, highlighting the paleoclimatic value of tree-ring and possibly other delta(exp 18)O records from this region. Our delta(exp 18)O-based temperature reconstruction is the first of its kind in northwestern North America, and one of few worldwide, and provides a long-term context for evaluating recent climate warming in the Mackenzie Delta region.

Empirical downscaling of daily minimum air temperature at very fine resolutions in complex terrain

Treesearch

Zachary A. Holden; John T. Abatzoglou; Charles H. Luce; L. Scott Baggett

2011-01-01

Available air temperature models do not adequately account for the influence of terrain on nocturnal air temperatures. An empirical model for night time air temperatures was developed using a network of one hundred and forty inexpensive temperature sensors deployed across the Bitterroot National Forest, Montana. A principle component analysis (PCA) on minimum...

Impacts of Model Bias on the Climate Change Signal and Effects of Weighted Ensembles of Regional Climate Model Simulations: A Case Study over Southern Québec, Canada

DOE PAGES

Eum, Hyung-Il; Gachon, Philippe; Laprise, René

2016-01-01

This study examined the impact of model biases on climate change signals for daily precipitation and for minimum and maximum temperatures. Through the use of multiple climate scenarios from 12 regional climate model simulations, the ensemble mean, and three synthetic simulations generated by a weighting procedure, we investigated intermodel seasonal climate change signals between current and future periods, for both median and extreme precipitation/temperature values. A significant dependence of seasonal climate change signals on the model biases over southern Québec in Canada was detected for temperatures, but not for precipitation. This suggests that the regional temperature change signal is affectedmore » by local processes. Seasonally, model bias affects future mean and extreme values in winter and summer. In addition, potentially large increases in future extremes of temperature and precipitation values were projected. For three synthetic scenarios, systematically less bias and a narrow range of mean change for all variables were projected compared to those of climate model simulations. In addition, synthetic scenarios were found to better capture the spatial variability of extreme cold temperatures than the ensemble mean scenario. Finally, these results indicate that the synthetic scenarios have greater potential to reduce the uncertainty of future climate projections and capture the spatial variability of extreme climate events.« less

Impacts of Model Bias on the Climate Change Signal and Effects of Weighted Ensembles of Regional Climate Model Simulations: A Case Study over Southern Québec, Canada

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Eum, Hyung-Il; Gachon, Philippe; Laprise, René

This study examined the impact of model biases on climate change signals for daily precipitation and for minimum and maximum temperatures. Through the use of multiple climate scenarios from 12 regional climate model simulations, the ensemble mean, and three synthetic simulations generated by a weighting procedure, we investigated intermodel seasonal climate change signals between current and future periods, for both median and extreme precipitation/temperature values. A significant dependence of seasonal climate change signals on the model biases over southern Québec in Canada was detected for temperatures, but not for precipitation. This suggests that the regional temperature change signal is affectedmore » by local processes. Seasonally, model bias affects future mean and extreme values in winter and summer. In addition, potentially large increases in future extremes of temperature and precipitation values were projected. For three synthetic scenarios, systematically less bias and a narrow range of mean change for all variables were projected compared to those of climate model simulations. In addition, synthetic scenarios were found to better capture the spatial variability of extreme cold temperatures than the ensemble mean scenario. Finally, these results indicate that the synthetic scenarios have greater potential to reduce the uncertainty of future climate projections and capture the spatial variability of extreme climate events.« less

Enhanced Pacific Ocean Sea Surface Temperature and Its Relation to Typhoon Haiyan

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Comiso, Josefino C.; Perez, Gay Jane P.; Stock, Larry V.

2015-01-01

Typhoon Haiyan, which devastated the Visayan Islands in the Philippines on November 8, 2013 was recorded as the strongest typhoon ever-observed using satellite data. Typhoons in the region usually originate from the mid-Pacific region that includes the Warm Pool, which is regarded as the warmest ocean surface region globally. Two study areas were considered: one in the Warm Pool Region and the other in the West Pacific Region near the Philippines. Among the most important factors that affect the strength of a typhoon are sea surface temperature (SST) and water vapor. It is remarkable that in November 2013 the average SST in the Warm Pool Region was the highest observed during the 1981 to 2014 period while that of the West Pacific Region was among the highest as well. Moreover, the increasing trend in SST was around 0.20C per decade in the warm pool region and even higher at 0.23C per decade in the West Pacific region. The yearly minimum SST has also been increasing suggesting that the temperature of the ocean mixed layer is also increasing. Further analysis indicated that water vapor, clouds, winds and sea level pressure for the same period did not reveal strong signals associated with the 2013 event. The SST is shown to be well-correlated with wind strength of historically strong typhoons in the country and the observed trends in SST suggest that extremely destructive typhoons like Haiyan are likely to occur in the future.

Extrinsic regime shifts drive abrupt changes in regeneration dynamics at upper treeline in the Rocky Mountains, U.S.A.

PubMed

Elliott, Grant P

2012-07-01

Given the widespread and often dramatic influence of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems, it is increasingly common for abrupt threshold changes to occur, yet explicitly testing for climate and ecological regime shifts is lacking in climatically sensitive upper treeline ecotones. In this study, quantitative evidence based on empirical data is provided to support the key role of extrinsic, climate-induced thresholds in governing the spatial and temporal patterns of tree establishment in these high-elevation environments. Dendroecological techniques were used to reconstruct a 420-year history of regeneration dynamics within upper treeline ecotones along a latitudinal gradient (approximately 44-35 degrees N) in the Rocky Mountains. Correlation analysis was used to assess the possible influence of minimum and maximum temperature indices and cool-season (November-April) precipitation on regional age-structure data. Regime-shift analysis was used to detect thresholds in tree establishment during the entire period of record (1580-2000), temperature variables significantly Correlated with establishment during the 20th century, and cool-season precipitation. Tree establishment was significantly correlated with minimum temperature during the spring (March-May) and cool season. Regime-shift analysis identified an abrupt increase in regional tree establishment in 1950 (1950-1954 age class). Coincident with this period was a shift toward reduced cool-season precipitation. The alignment of these climate conditions apparently triggered an abrupt increase in establishment that was unprecedented during the period of record. Two main findings emerge from this research that underscore the critical role of climate in governing regeneration dynamics within upper treeline ecotones. (1) Regional climate variability is capable of exceeding bioclimatic thresholds, thereby initiating synchronous and abrupt changes in the spatial and temporal patterns of tree establishment at broad regional scales. (2) The importance of climate parameters exceeding critical threshold values and triggering a regime shift in tree establishment appears to be contingent on the alignment of favorable temperature and moisture regimes. This research suggests that threshold changes in the climate system can fundamentally alter regeneration dynamics within upper treeline ecotones and, through the use of regime-shift analysis, reveals important climate-vegetation linkages.

Snow in Castile-León: trends and variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Merino, A.; Campos, L.; López, L.; García-Ortega, E.; Sánchez, J. L.; Marcos, J. L.; Guerrero-Higueras, A. M.

2012-04-01

The location of Castile and León, inside the Iberian Peninsula, in the Northwestern quadrant, determines, in large measure, the climatic conditions of its territory, granting it very characteristic traits, mostly in the mountainous areas. It is important to note that during a large part of the year, the region is under the influence of Jet Stream, and thus, gives way to very diverse dynamic situations, which turn into different and heterogeneous types of weather. So, in many areas of the region, especially in the most elevated areas, these synoptic and mesoscale situations generate snow precipitation. We should point out that snowfall is one of the principal meteorological risks of Castile and León. Thus, on average, in some mountainous areas there are more than 40 events of snowfall registered annually, with the month of January being the month in which the highest frequency of snowfall appears. The social repercussions of this snowfall are represented in the isolation of places, essentially mountainous, highways being blocked, increase in traffic accidents, etc. As proof of this, it is this type of episode that receives ample coverage by the media, which has a linear relationship with the social perception of risk. As such, the objective of the current work is to analyze the annual trend of days with snow in the different meteorological stations pertaining to AEMET placed in the Community. The period of study is from 1960-2010. Additionally, we have also evaluated trends in annual days of freezing temperature and annual absolute minimum temperature, with the objective of facilitating a meteorological interpretation of the trends obtained on days with snowfall. Finally, the results show that in the majority of stations, a significant negative trend in days with snowfall and annual days with freezing temperatures, and a positive trend in annual absolute minimum temperatures. However, we observed variability in the different regions in the area of study. Acknowledgements The authors would like to thank the Regional Government of Castile-León for its financial support through the project LE220A11-2. This study was supported by the following grants: CEN20091028; GRANIMETRO (CGL2010-15930); MICROMETEO (IPT-310000-2010-22 ).

Dynamically-downscaled temperature and precipitation changes over Saskatchewan using the PRECIS model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Xiong; Huang, Guohe; Wang, Xiuquan; Cheng, Guanhui

2018-02-01

In this study, dynamically-downscaled temperature and precipitation changes over Saskatchewan are developed through the Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS) model. It can resolve detailed features within GCM grids such as topography, clouds, and land use in Saskatchewan. The PRECIS model is employed to carry out ensemble simulations for projections of temperature and precipitation changes over Saskatchewan. Temperature and precipitation variables at 14 weather stations for the baseline period are first extracted from each model run. Ranges of simulated temperature and precipitation variables are then obtained through combination of maximum and minimum values calculated from the five ensemble runs. The performance of PRECIS ensemble simulations can be evaluated through checking if observations of current temperature at each weather station are within the simulated range. Future climate projections are analyzed over three time slices (i.e., the 2030s, 2050s, and 2080s) to help understand the plausible changes in temperature and precipitation over Saskatchewan in response to global warming. The evaluation results show that the PRECIS ensemble simulations perform very well in terms of capturing the spatial patterns of temperature and precipitation variables. The results of future climate projections over three time slices indicate that there will be an obvious warming trend from the 2030s, to the 2050s, and the 2080s over Saskatchewan. The projected changes of mean temperature over the whole Saskatchewan area is [0, 2] °C in the 2030s at 10th percentile, [2, 5.5] °C in the 2050s at 50th percentile, and [3, 10] °C in the 2090s at 90th percentile. There are no significant changes in the spatial patterns of the projected total precipitation from the 2030s to the end of this century. The minimum change of the projected total precipitation over the whole Province of Saskatchewan is most likely to be -1.3% in the 2030s, and -0.2% in the 2050s, while the minimum value would be -2.1% to the end of this century at 50th percentile.

Experimental investigations of the minimum ignition energy and the minimum ignition temperature of inert and combustible dust cloud mixtures.

PubMed

Addai, Emmanuel Kwasi; Gabel, Dieter; Krause, Ulrich

2016-04-15

The risks associated with dust explosions still exist in industries that either process or handle combustible dust. This explosion risk could be prevented or mitigated by applying the principle of inherent safety (moderation). This is achieved by adding an inert material to a highly combustible material in order to decrease the ignition sensitivity of the combustible dust. The presented paper deals with the experimental investigation of the influence of adding an inert dust on the minimum ignition energy and the minimum ignition temperature of the combustible/inert dust mixtures. The experimental investigation was done in two laboratory scale equipment: the Hartmann apparatus and the Godbert-Greenwald furnace for the minimum ignition energy and the minimum ignition temperature test respectively. This was achieved by mixing various amounts of three inert materials (magnesium oxide, ammonium sulphate and sand) and six combustible dusts (brown coal, lycopodium, toner, niacin, corn starch and high density polyethylene). Generally, increasing the inert materials concentration increases the minimum ignition energy as well as the minimum ignition temperatures until a threshold is reached where no ignition was obtained. The permissible range for the inert mixture to minimize the ignition risk lies between 60 to 80%. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A further contribution to the seasonal variation of weighted mean temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ding, Maohua; Hu, Wusheng

2017-12-01

The weighted mean temperature Tm is a variable parameter in the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) meteorology and the Askne-Nordius zenith wet delay (ZWD) model. Some parameters about the Tm seasonal variation (e.g. the annual mean value, the annual range, the annual and semi-annual amplitudes, and the long-term trend) were discussed before. In this study, some additional results about the Tm seasonal variation on a global scale were found by using the Tm time series at 309 global radiosonde sites. Periodic signals of the annual and semi-annual variations were detected in these Tm time series by using the Lomb-Scargle periodogram. The annual variation is the main component of the periodic Tm in non-tropical regions, while the annual variation or the semiannual variation can be the main component of the periodic Tm in tropics. The mean annual Tm almost keeps constant with the increasing latitude in tropics, while it decreases with the increasing latitude in non-tropical regions. From a global perspective, Tm has an increasing trend of 0.22 K/decade on average, which may be caused by the global warming effects. The annual phase is almost found in about January for the non-tropical regions of the Southern Hemisphere and in about July for the non-tropical regions of the Northern Hemisphere, but it has no clear symmetry in tropics. Unlike the annual phase, the geographical distributions of semi-annual phase do not follow obvious rules. In non-tropical regions, the maximum and minimum Tm of the seasonal model are usually found in respective summer and winter days while the maximum and minimum Tm are distributed over a whole year but not in any fixed seasons for tropical regions. The seasonal model errors increase with the increasing value of annual amplitude. A primary reason for the irregular seasonal variation in tropics is that Tm has rather small variations in this region.

The oasis effect and summer temperature rise in arid regions - case study in Tarim Basin

PubMed Central

Hao, Xingming; Li, Weihong; Deng, Haijun

2016-01-01

This study revealed the influence of the oasis effect on summer temperatures based on MODIS Land Surface Temperature (LST) and meteorological data. The results showed that the oasis effect occurs primarily in the summer. For a single oasis, the maximum oasis cold island intensity based on LST (OCILST) was 3.82 °C and the minimum value was 2.32 °C. In terms of the annual change in OCILST, the mean value of all oases ranged from 2.47 °C to 3.56 °C from 2001 to 2013. Net radiation (Rn) can be used as a key predictor of OCILST and OCItemperature (OCI based on air temperature). On this basis, we reconstructed a long time series (1961–2014) of OCItemperature and Tbase(air temperature without the disturbance of oasis effect). Our results indicated that the reason for the increase in the observed temperatures was the significant decrease in the OCItemperature over the past 50 years. In arid regions, the data recorded in weather stations not only underestimated the mean temperature of the entire study area but also overestimated the increasing trend of the temperature. These discrepancies are due to the limitations in the spatial distribution of weather stations and the disturbance caused by the oasis effect. PMID:27739500

Winter climatic condictions in Andalusia (southern Spain) during the Dalton Minimum from documentary sources.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodrigo, Fernando S.

2010-05-01

In this work, a reconstruction of winter rainfall and temperature in Andalusia (southern Iberia Peninsula) during the period 1750-1850 is presented. The reconstruction is based on the analysis of a wide variety of documentary data. This period is interesting because it is characterized by a minimum in the solar irradiance (Dalton Minimum, around 1800), as well as intense volcanic activity (for instance, the eruption of the Tambora in 1815), when the increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations were of minor importance. The reconstruction methodology is based on accounting the number of extreme events in past, and inferring mean value and standard deviation using the assumption of normal distribution for the climate variables. Results are compared with the behaviour of regional series for the reference period 1960-1990. The comparison of the distribution functions corresponding to 1790-1820 and 1960-1990 periods indicates that during the Dalton Minimum the frequency of droughts and warm winters was lesser than during the reference period, while the frequencies of wet and cold winters were similar. Future research work is outlined.

Time-series Analysis of Heat Waves and Emergency Department Visits in Atlanta, 1993 to 2012

PubMed Central

Chen, Tianqi; Sarnat, Stefanie E.; Grundstein, Andrew J.; Winquist, Andrea

2017-01-01

Background: Heat waves are extreme weather events that have been associated with adverse health outcomes. However, there is limited knowledge of heat waves’ impact on population morbidity, such as emergency department (ED) visits. Objectives: We investigated associations between heat waves and ED visits for 17 outcomes in Atlanta over a 20-year period, 1993–2012. Methods: Associations were estimated using Poisson log-linear models controlling for continuous air temperature, dew-point temperature, day of week, holidays, and time trends. We defined heat waves as periods of ≥2 consecutive days with temperatures beyond the 98th percentile of the temperature distribution over the period from 1945–2012. We considered six heat wave definitions using maximum, minimum, and average air temperatures and apparent temperatures. Associations by heat wave characteristics were examined. Results: Among all outcome-heat wave combinations, associations were strongest between ED visits for acute renal failure and heat waves defined by maximum apparent temperature at lag 0 [relative risk (RR) = 1.15; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.03–1.29], ED visits for ischemic stroke and heat waves defined by minimum temperature at lag 0 (RR = 1.09; 95% CI: 1.02–1.17), and ED visits for intestinal infection and heat waves defined by average temperature at lag 1 (RR = 1.10; 95% CI: 1.00–1.21). ED visits for all internal causes were associated with heat waves defined by maximum temperature at lag 1 (RR = 1.02; 95% CI: 1.00, 1.04). Conclusions: Heat waves can confer additional risks of ED visits beyond those of daily air temperature, even in a region with high air-conditioning prevalence. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP44 PMID:28599264

Time-series Analysis of Heat Waves and Emergency Department Visits in Atlanta, 1993 to 2012.

PubMed

Chen, Tianqi; Sarnat, Stefanie E; Grundstein, Andrew J; Winquist, Andrea; Chang, Howard H

2017-05-31

Heat waves are extreme weather events that have been associated with adverse health outcomes. However, there is limited knowledge of heat waves' impact on population morbidity, such as emergency department (ED) visits. We investigated associations between heat waves and ED visits for 17 outcomes in Atlanta over a 20-year period, 1993-2012. Associations were estimated using Poisson log-linear models controlling for continuous air temperature, dew-point temperature, day of week, holidays, and time trends. We defined heat waves as periods of consecutive days with temperatures beyond the 98th percentile of the temperature distribution over the period from 1945-2012. We considered six heat wave definitions using maximum, minimum, and average air temperatures and apparent temperatures. Associations by heat wave characteristics were examined. Among all outcome-heat wave combinations, associations were strongest between ED visits for acute renal failure and heat waves defined by maximum apparent temperature at lag 0 [relative risk (RR) = 1.15; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.03-1.29], ED visits for ischemic stroke and heat waves defined by minimum temperature at lag 0 (RR = 1.09; 95% CI: 1.02-1.17), and ED visits for intestinal infection and heat waves defined by average temperature at lag 1 (RR = 1.10; 95% CI: 1.00-1.21). ED visits for all internal causes were associated with heat waves defined by maximum temperature at lag 1 (RR = 1.02; 95% CI: 1.00, 1.04). Heat waves can confer additional risks of ED visits beyond those of daily air temperature, even in a region with high air-conditioning prevalence. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP44.

Investigation of alternative layouts for the supercritical carbon dioxide Brayton cycle for a sodium-cooled fast reactor.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Moisseytsev, A.; Sienicki, J. J.

2009-07-01

Analyses of supercritical carbon dioxide (S-CO{sub 2}) Brayton cycle performance have largely settled on the recompression supercritical cycle (or Feher cycle) incorporating a flow split between the main compressor downstream of heat rejection, a recompressing compressor providing direct compression without heat rejection, and high and low temperature recuperators to raise the effectiveness of recuperation and the cycle efficiency. Alternative cycle layouts have been previously examined by Angelino (Politecnico, Milan), by MIT (Dostal, Hejzlar, and Driscoll), and possibly others but not for sodium-cooled fast reactors (SFRs) operating at relatively low core outlet temperature. Thus, the present authors could not be suremore » that the recompression cycle is an optimal arrangement for application to the SFR. To ensure that an advantageous alternative layout has not been overlooked, several alternative cycle layouts have been investigated for a S-CO{sub 2} Brayton cycle coupled to the Advanced Burner Test Reactor (ABTR) SFR preconceptual design having a 510 C core outlet temperature and a 470 C turbine inlet temperature to determine if they provide any benefit in cycle performance (e.g., enhanced cycle efficiency). No such benefits were identified, consistent with the previous examinations, such that attention was devoted to optimizing the recompression supercritical cycle. The effects of optimizing the cycle minimum temperature and pressure are investigated including minimum temperatures and/or pressures below the critical values. It is found that improvements in the cycle efficiency of 1% or greater relative to previous analyses which arbitrarily fixed the minimum temperature and pressure can be realized through an optimal choice of the combination of the minimum cycle temperature and pressure (e.g., for a fixed minimum temperature there is an optimal minimum pressure). However, this leads to a requirement for a larger cooler for heat rejection which may impact the tradeoff between efficiency and capital cost. In addition, for minimum temperatures below the critical temperature, a lower heat sink temperature is required the availability of which is dependent upon the climate at the specific plant site.« less

Infrared emission from the supernova remnant Puppis A: Dust and gas parameters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Arendt, Richard G.; Dwek, Eli; Petre, R

1989-01-01

The infrared (IR) spectra of collisionally heated dust at several regions across the supernova remnant (SNR) Puppis A were modelled. Through the comparison of the actual and model spectra, the possible range of gas density and temperature within these areas was narrowed down. From the models, information on the minimum and maximum dust grain sizes and the amount of sputtering which has occurred was found. Finally the mass of gas and dust, the IR luminosity, the effective thickness, and the length of time since the dust was swept up by the SNR were derived for these regions.

Bromine partitioning between olivine and melt at OIB source conditions: Indication for volatile recycling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joachim, Bastian; Ruzié, Lorraine; Burgess, Ray; Pawley, Alison; Clay, Patricia L.; Ballentine, Christopher J.

2016-04-01

Halogens play a key role in our understanding of volatile transport processes in the Earth's mantle. Their moderate (fluorine) to highly (iodine) incompatible and volatile behavior implies that their distribution is influenced by partial melting, fractionation and degassing processes as well as fluid mobilities. The heavy halogens, particularly bromine and iodine, are far more depleted in the Earth's mantle than expected from their condensation temperature (Palme and O'Neill 2014), so that their very low abundances in basalts and peridotites (ppb-range) make it analytically challenging to investigate their concentrations in Earth's mantle reservoirs and their behavior during transport processes (Pyle and Mather, 2009). We used a new experimental technique, which combines the irradiation technique (Johnson et al. 2000), laser ablation and conventional mass spectrometry. This enables us to present the first experimentally derived bromine partition coefficient between olivine and melt. Partitioning experiments were performed at 1500° C and 2.3 GPa, a P-T condition that is representative for partial melting processes in the OIB source region (Davis et al. 2011). The bromine partition coefficient between olivine and silicate melt at this condition has been determined to DBrol/melt = 4.37•10-4± 1.96•10-4. Results show that bromine is significantly more incompatible than chlorine (˜1.5 orders of magnitude) and fluorine (˜2 orders of magnitude) due to its larger ionic radius. We have used our bromine partitioning data to estimate minimum bromine abundances in EM1 and EM2 source regions. We used minimum bromine bulk rock concentrations determined in an EM1 (Pitcairn: 1066 ppb) and EM2 (Society: 2063 ppb) basalt (Kendrick et al. 2012), together with an estimated minimum melt fraction of 0.01 in OIB source regions (Dasgupta et al. 2007). The almost perfect bromine incompatibility results in minimum bromine abundances in EM1 and EM2 OIB source regions of 11 ppb and 20 ppb, respectively. The effect on the partitioning behaviour of other minerals such as pyroxene, mantle inhomogeneity, incongruent melting, a potential effect of iron, temperature, pressure or the presence of fluids, would be to shift the estimated bromine mantle source concentration to higher but not to lower values. Comparing our minimum bromine OIB source region estimate with the estimated primitive mantle bromine abundance (3.6 ppb; Lyubetskaya and Korenaga, 2007) implies that the OIB source mantle is enriched in bromine relative to the primitive mantle by at least a factor of 3 in EM1 source regions and a factor of 5.5 in EM2 source regions. One explanation is that bromine may be efficiently recycled into the OIB source mantle region through recycling of subducted oceanic crust. Dasgupta R, Hirschmann MM, Humayun, ND (2007) J. Petrol. 48, pp. 2093-2124. Davis FA, Hirschmann MM, Humayun M (2011) Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 308, pp. 380-390. Johnson L, Burgess R, Turner G, Milledge JH, Harris JW (2000) Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta 64, pp. 717-732. Kendrick MA, Woodhead JD, Kamenetsky VS (2012) Geol. 32, pp. 441-444. Lyubetskaya T, Korenaga J (2007) J. Geophys. Res.-Sol. Earth 112, B03211. Palme H, O'Neill HStC (2014). Cosmochemical Estimates of Mantle Composition. Treat. Geochem. 2nd edition, 3, pp. 1-39. Pyle DM, Mather TA (2009) Chem. Geol. 263, pp. 110-121.

High-Resolution Dynamical Downscaling Ensemble Projections of Future Extreme Temperature Distributions for the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zobel, Zachary; Wang, Jiali; Wuebbles, Donald J.; Kotamarthi, V. Rao

2017-12-01

The aim of this study is to examine projections of extreme temperatures over the continental United States (CONUS) for the 21st century using an ensemble of high spatial resolution dynamically downscaled model simulations with different boundary conditions. The downscaling uses the Weather Research and Forecast model at a spatial resolution of 12 km along with outputs from three different Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 global climate models that provide boundary conditions under two different future greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration trajectories. The results from two decadal-length time slices (2045-2054 and 2085-2094) are compared with a historical decade (1995-2004). Probability density functions of daily maximum/minimum temperatures are analyzed over seven climatologically cohesive regions of the CONUS. The impacts of different boundary conditions as well as future GHG concentrations on extreme events such as heat waves and days with temperature higher than 95°F are also investigated. The results show that the intensity of extreme warm temperature in future summer is significantly increased, while the frequency of extreme cold temperature in future winter decreases. The distribution of summer daily maximum temperature experiences a significant warm-side shift and increased variability, while the distribution of winter daily minimum temperature is projected to have a less significant warm-side shift with decreased variability. Using "business-as-usual" scenario, 5-day heat waves are projected to occur at least 5-10 times per year in most CONUS and ≥95°F days will increase by 1-2 months by the end of the century.

Spatio-temporal Trends of Climate Variability in North Carolina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sayemuzzaman, Mohammad

Climatic trends in spatial and temporal variability of maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), mean temperature (Tmean) and precipitation were evaluated for 249 ground-based stations in North Carolina for 1950-2009. The Mann-Kendall (MK), the Theil-Sen Approach (TSA) and the Sequential Mann-Kendall (SQMK) tests were applied to quantify the significance of trend, magnitude of trend and the trend shift, respectively. The lag-1 serial correlation and double mass curve techniques were used to address the data independency and homogeneity. The pre-whitening technique was used to eliminate the effect of auto correlation of the data series. The difference between minimum and maximum temperatures, and so the diurnal temperature range (DTR), at some stations was found to be decreasing on both an annual and a seasonal basis, with an overall increasing trend in the mean temperature. For precipitation, a statewide increasing trend in fall (highest in November) and decreasing trend in winter (highest in February) were detected. No pronounced increasing/decreasing trends were detected in annual, spring, and summer precipitation time series. Trend analysis on a spatial scale (for three physiographic regions: mountain, piedmont and coastal) revealed mixed results. Coastal zone exhibited increasing mean temperature (warming) trend as compared to other locations whereas mountain zone showed decreasing trend (cooling). Three main moisture components (precipitation, total cloud cover, and soil moisture) and the two major atmospheric circulation modes (North Atlantic Oscillation and Southern Oscillation) were used for correlative analysis purposes with the temperature (specifically with DTR) and precipitation trends. It appears that the moisture components are associated with DTR more than the circulation modes in North Carolina.

Spatial-temporal changes of maximum and minimum temperatures in the Wei River Basin, China: Changing patterns, causes and implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Saiyan; Huang, Shengzhi; Xie, Yangyang; Huang, Qiang; Leng, Guoyong; Hou, Beibei; Zhang, Ying; Wei, Xiu

2018-05-01

Due to the important role of temperature in the global climate system and energy cycles, it is important to investigate the spatial-temporal change patterns, causes and implications of annual maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperatures. In this study, the Cloud model were adopted to fully and accurately analyze the changing patterns of annual Tmax and Tmin from 1958 to 2008 by quantifying their mean, uniformity, and stability in the Wei River Basin (WRB), a typical arid and semi-arid region in China. Additionally, the cross wavelet analysis was applied to explore the correlations among annual Tmax and Tmin and the yearly sunspots number, Arctic Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and soil moisture with an aim to determine possible causes of annual Tmax and Tmin variations. Furthermore, temperature-related impacts on vegetation cover and precipitation extremes were also examined. Results indicated that: (1) the WRB is characterized by increasing trends in annual Tmax and Tmin, with a more evident increasing trend in annual Tmin, which has a higher dispersion degree and is less uniform and stable than annual Tmax; (2) the asymmetric variations of Tmax and Tmin can be generally explained by the stronger effects of solar activity (primarily), large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns, and soil moisture on annual Tmin than on annual Tmax; and (3) increasing annual Tmax and Tmin have exerted strong influences on local precipitation extremes, in terms of their duration, intensity, and frequency in the WRB. This study presents new analyses of Tmax and Tmin in the WRB, and the findings may help guide regional agricultural production and water resources management.

Trees, History, and Isotopes - the Late Maunder Minimum (1675-1715) in the Pannonian Basin, Hungary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kazmer, M.; Demeny, A.; Grynaeus, A.; Racz, L.; Varkonyi, A.

2002-05-01

First results of a comprehensive study on climate change in the Pannonian Basin during the Late Maunder Minimum (1675-1715) are presented. The Pannonian Basin has continental climate, distinctly warm and dry in summer, cold in winter, unlike the Atlantic-type climate of Western Europe. Surrounded by the arc of the Carpathians, exposed to Atlantic, Mediterranean, and Siberian influences, the regional climate displays steep gradients. More than one tree-ring chronology for oak is being built, independent of the south German series. Rethly's rich database of historical sources has been assembled, and completed with recently published letters. Ring-width series are measured on oak, and skeleton plots are logged. Study of hydrogen isotope composition of tree rings is in progress. Tree-ring width faithfully reflects historical indices on spring (i.e. earlywood growth season) precipitation. Generally, precipitation - as shown both by indices and tree-ring width - was high and temperature low during the growth season in the first half of the LMM. The second half has seen a retardation in oak growth and an increase in spring temperature. The decades of the Late Maunder Minimum was a politically turbulent era: it saw the decline and fall of the Ottoman domination in Hungary, followed by a rebellion against Austrian rule, associated with disruption of national economy.

Impacts of SST Patterns on Rapid Intensification of Typhoon Megi (2010)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kanada, Sachie; Tsujino, Satoki; Aiki, Hidenori; Yoshioka, Mayumi K.; Miyazawa, Yasumasa; Tsuboki, Kazuhisa; Takayabu, Izuru

2017-12-01

Typhoon Megi (2010), a very intense tropical cyclone with a minimum central pressure of 885 hPa, was characterized by especially rapid intensification. We investigated this intensification process by a simulation experiment using a high-resolution (0.02° × 0.02°) three-dimensional atmosphere-ocean coupled regional model. We also performed a sensitivity experiment with a time-fixed sea surface temperature (SST). The coupled model successfully simulated the minimum central pressure of Typhoon Megi, whereas the fixed SST experiment simulated an excessively low minimum central pressure of 839 hPa. The simulation results also showed a close relationship between the radial SST profiles and the rapid intensification process. Because the warm sea increased near-surface water vapor and hence the convective available potential energy, the high SST in the eye region facilitated tall and intense updrafts inside the radius of maximum wind speed and led to the start of rapid intensification. In contrast, high SST outside this radius induced local secondary updrafts that inhibited rapid intensification even if the mean SST in the core region exceeded 29.0°C. These secondary updrafts moved inward and eventually merged with the primary eyewall updrafts. Then the storm intensified rapidly when the high SST appeared in the eye region. Thus, the changes in the local SST pattern around the storm center strongly affected the rapid intensification process by modulating the radial structure of core convection. Our results also show that the use of a high-resolution three-dimensional atmosphere-ocean coupled model offers promise for improving intensity forecasts of tropical cyclones.

Statistical downscaling and future scenario generation of temperatures for Pakistan Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kazmi, Dildar Hussain; Li, Jianping; Rasul, Ghulam; Tong, Jiang; Ali, Gohar; Cheema, Sohail Babar; Liu, Luliu; Gemmer, Marco; Fischer, Thomas

2015-04-01

Finer climate change information on spatial scale is required for impact studies than that presently provided by global or regional climate models. It is especially true for regions like South Asia with complex topography, coastal or island locations, and the areas of highly heterogeneous land-cover. To deal with the situation, an inexpensive method (statistical downscaling) has been adopted. Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM) employed for downscaling of daily minimum and maximum temperature data of 44 national stations for base time (1961-1990) and then the future scenarios generated up to 2099. Observed as well as Predictors (product of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) data were calibrated and tested on individual/multiple basis through linear regression. Future scenario was generated based on HadCM3 daily data for A2 and B2 story lines. The downscaled data has been tested, and it has shown a relatively strong relationship with the observed in comparison to ECHAM5 data. Generally, the southern half of the country is considered vulnerable in terms of increasing temperatures, but the results of this study projects that in future, the northern belt in particular would have a possible threat of increasing tendency in air temperature. Especially, the northern areas (hosting the third largest ice reserves after the Polar Regions), an important feeding source for Indus River, are projected to be vulnerable in terms of increasing temperatures. Consequently, not only the hydro-agricultural sector but also the environmental conditions in the area may be at risk, in future.

The CDRH helix. A phase I clinical trial.

PubMed

Shimm, D S; Cetas, T C; Hynynen, K H; Buechler, D N; Anhalt, D P; Sykes, H F; Cassady, J R

1989-04-01

Seventeen patients have been given regional hyperthermia treatments using the Center for Devices and Radiologic Health (CDRH) Helix, a resonant helical coil unit. Most of these patients had large, clinically advanced tumors, whose mean volume exceeded 1000 cc. Mean maximum, minimum, and average temperatures were 40.6, 38.6, and 39.6 degrees C, respectively, for all sites combined. The pelvic heating capabilities of the CDRH Helix and the BSD-1000 annular phased array were compared, and generally were equivalent. Although the Helix could be used in a wider variety of locations, and was more comfortable and easier to use than the BSD-1000 annular phased array, neither device was particularly effective in generating clinically useful temperatures; the Helix is currently under investigation for use in regional-systemic hyperthermia in combination with antineoplastic drugs and biologic response modifiers.

Electrical transport properties in Co nanocluster-assembled granular film

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Qin-Fu; Wang, Lai-Sen; Wang, Xiong-Zhi; Zheng, Hong-Fei; Liu, Xiang; Xie, Jia; Qiu, Yu-Long; Chen, Yuanzhi; Peng, Dong-Liang

2017-03-01

A Co nanocluster-assembled granular film with three-dimensional cross-connection paralleled conductive paths was fabricated by using the plasma-gas-condensation method in a vacuum environment. The temperature-dependent longitudinal resistivity and anomalous Hall effect of this new type granular film were systematically studied. The longitudinal resistivity of the Co nanocluster-assembled granular film first decreased and then increased with increasing measuring temperature, revealing a minimum value at certain temperature, T min . In a low temperature region ( T < T min ), the barrier between adjacent nanoclusters governed the electrical transport process, and the temperature coefficient of resistance (TCR) showed an insulator-type behavior. The thermal fluctuation-induced tunneling conduction progressively increased with increasing temperature, which led to a decrease in the longitudinal resistivity. In a high temperature region, the TCR showed a metallic-type behavior, which was primarily attributed to the temperature-dependent scattering. Different from the longitudinal resistivity behavior, the saturated anomalous Hall resistivity increased monotonically with increasing measuring temperature. The value of the anomalous Hall coefficient ( R S ) reached 2.3 × 10-9 (Ω cm)/G at 300 K, which was about three orders of magnitude larger than previously reported in blocky single-crystal Co [E. N. Kondorskii, Sov. Phys. JETP 38, 977 (1974)]. Interestingly, the scaling relation ( ρx y A ∝ ρx x γ ) between saturated anomalous Hall resistivity ( ρx y A ) and longitudinal resistivity ( ρ x x ) was divided into two regions by T min . However, after excluding the contribution of tunneling, the scaling relation followed the same rule. The corresponding physical mechanism was also proposed to explain these phenomena.

Satellite Estimation of Daily Land Surface Water Vapor Pressure Deficit from AMSR- E

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, L. A.; Kimball, J. S.; McDonald, K. C.; Chan, S. K.; Njoku, E. G.; Oechel, W. C.

2007-12-01

Vapor pressure deficit (VPD) is a key variable for monitoring land surface water and energy exchanges, and estimating plant water stress. Multi-frequency day/night brightness temperatures from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer on EOS Aqua (AMSR-E) were used to estimate daily minimum and average near surface (2 m) air temperatures across a North American boreal-Arctic transect. A simple method for determining daily mean VPD (Pa) from AMSR-E air temperature retrievals was developed and validated against observations across a regional network of eight study sites ranging from boreal grassland and forest to arctic tundra. The method assumes that the dew point and minimum daily air temperatures tend to equilibrate in areas with low night time temperatures and relatively moist conditions. This assumption was tested by comparing the VPD algorithm results derived from site daily temperature observations against results derived from AMSR-E retrieved temperatures alone. An error analysis was conducted to determine the amount of error introduced in VPD estimates given known levels of error in satellite retrieved temperatures. Results indicate that the assumption generally holds for the high latitude study sites except for arid locations in mid-summer. VPD estimates using the method with AMSR-E retrieved temperatures compare favorably with site observations. The method can be applied to land surface temperature retrievals from any sensor with day and night surface or near-surface thermal measurements and shows potential for inferring near-surface wetness conditions where dense vegetation may hinder surface soil moisture retrievals from low-frequency microwave sensors. This work was carried out at The University of Montana, at San Diego State University, and at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, under contract to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration.

On the impacts of computing daily temperatures as the average of the daily minimum and maximum temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Villarini, Gabriele; Khouakhi, Abdou; Cunningham, Evan

2017-12-01

Daily temperature values are generally computed as the average of the daily minimum and maximum observations, which can lead to biases in the estimation of daily averaged values. This study examines the impacts of these biases on the calculation of climatology and trends in temperature extremes at 409 sites in North America with at least 25 years of complete hourly records. Our results show that the calculation of daily temperature based on the average of minimum and maximum daily readings leads to an overestimation of the daily values of 10+ % when focusing on extremes and values above (below) high (low) thresholds. Moreover, the effects of the data processing method on trend estimation are generally small, even though the use of the daily minimum and maximum readings reduces the power of trend detection ( 5-10% fewer trends detected in comparison with the reference data).

County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 6 Appendix E - Historical Minimum Near-Surface Air Temperature.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M.

2017-06-01

This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plusmore » two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.« less

Mean and extreme temperatures in a warming climate: EURO CORDEX and WRF regional climate high-resolution projections for Portugal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cardoso, Rita M.; Soares, Pedro M. M.; Lima, Daniela C. A.; Miranda, Pedro M. A.

2018-02-01

Large temperature spatio-temporal gradients are a common feature of Mediterranean climates. The Portuguese complex topography and coastlines enhances such features, and in a small region large temperature gradients with high interannual variability is detected. In this study, the EURO-CORDEX high-resolution regional climate simulations (0.11° and 0.44° resolutions) are used to investigate the maximum and minimum temperature projections across the twenty-first century according to RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. An additional WRF simulation with even higher resolution (9 km) for RCP8.5 scenario is also examined. All simulations for the historical period (1971-2000) are evaluated against the available station observations and the EURO-CORDEX model results are ranked in order to build multi-model ensembles. In present climate models are able to reproduce the main topography/coast related temperature gradients. Although there are discernible differences between models, most present a cold bias. The multi-model ensembles improve the overall representation of the temperature. The ensembles project a significant increase of the maximum and minimum temperatures in all seasons and scenarios. Maximum increments of 8 °C in summer and autumn and between 2 and 4 °C in winter and spring are projected in RCP8.5. The temperature distributions for all models show a significant increase in the upper tails of the PDFs. In RCP8.5 more than half of the extended summer (MJJAS) has maximum temperatures exceeding the historical 90th percentile and, on average, 60 tropical nights are projected for the end of the century, whilst there are only 7 tropical nights in the historical period. Conversely, the number of cold days almost disappears. The yearly average number of heat waves increases by seven to ninefold by 2100 and the most frequent length rises from 5 to 22 days throughout the twenty-first century. 5% of the longest events will last for more than one month. The amplitude is overwhelming larger, reaching values which are not observed in the historical period. More than half of the heat waves will be stronger than the extreme heat wave of 2003 by the end of the century. The future heatwaves will also enclose larger areas, approximately 100 events in the 2071-2100 period (more than 3 per year) will cover the whole country. The RCP4.5 scenario has in general smaller magnitudes.

40 CFR 63.1365 - Test methods and initial compliance procedures.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... design minimum and average temperature in the combustion zone and the combustion zone residence time. (B... establish the design minimum and average flame zone temperatures and combustion zone residence time, and... carbon bed temperature after regeneration, design carbon bed regeneration time, and design service life...

Regional climate assessment of precipitation and temperature in Southern Punjab (Pakistan) using SimCLIM climate model for different temporal scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amin, Asad; Nasim, Wajid; Mubeen, Muhammad; Sarwar, Saleem; Urich, Peter; Ahmad, Ashfaq; Wajid, Aftab; Khaliq, Tasneem; Rasul, Fahd; Hammad, Hafiz Mohkum; Rehmani, Muhammad Ishaq Asif; Mubarak, Hussani; Mirza, Nosheen; Wahid, Abdul; Ahamd, Shakeel; Fahad, Shah; Ullah, Abid; Khan, Mohammad Nauman; Ameen, Asif; Amanullah; Shahzad, Babar; Saud, Shah; Alharby, Hesham; Ata-Ul-Karim, Syed Tahir; Adnan, Muhammad; Islam, Faisal; Ali, Qazi Shoaib

2018-01-01

Unbalanced climate during the last decades has created spatially alarming and destructive situations in the world. Anomalies in temperature and precipitation enhance the risks for crop production in large agricultural region (especially the Southern Punjab) of Pakistan. Detailed analysis of historic weather data (1980-2011) record helped in creating baseline data to compare with model projection (SimCLIM) for regional level. Ensemble of 40 GCMs used for climatic projections with greenhouse gas (GHG) representative concentration pathways (RCP-4.5, 6.0, 8.5) was selected on the baseline comparison and used for 2025 and 2050 climate projection. Precipitation projected by ensemble and regional weather observatory at baseline showed highly unpredictable nature while both temperature extremes showed 95 % confidence level on a monthly projection. Percentage change in precipitation projected by model with RCP-4.5, RCP-6.0, and RCP-8.5 showed uncertainty 3.3 to 5.6 %, 2.9 to 5.2 %, and 3.6 to 7.9 % for 2025 and 2050, respectively. Percentage change of minimum temperature from base temperature showed that 5.1, 4.7, and 5.8 % for 2025 and 9.0, 8.1, and 12.0 % increase for projection year 2050 with RCP-4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 and maximum temperature 2.7, 2.5, and 3.0 % for 2025 and 4.7, 4.4, and 6.4 % for 2050 will be increased with RCP-4.5, 6.0, and 8.5, respectively. Uneven increase in precipitation and asymmetric increase in temperature extremes in future would also increase the risk associated with management of climatic uncertainties. Future climate projection will enable us for better risk management decisions.

Spatiotemporal Divergence of the Warming Hiatus over Land Based on Different Definitions of Mean Temperature

PubMed Central

Zhou, Chunlüe; Wang, Kaicun

2016-01-01

Existing studies of the recent warming hiatus over land are primarily based on the average of daily minimum and maximum temperatures (T2). This study compared regional warming rates of mean temperature based on T2 and T24 calculated from hourly observations available from 1998 to 2013. Both T2 and T24 show that the warming hiatus over land is apparent in the mid-latitudes of North America and Eurasia, especially in cold seasons, which is closely associated with the negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) and cold air propagation by the Arctic-original northerly wind anomaly into mid-latitudes. However, the warming rates of T2 and T24 are significantly different at regional and seasonal scales because T2 only samples air temperature twice daily and cannot accurately reflect land-atmosphere and incoming radiation variations in the temperature diurnal cycle. The trend has a standard deviation of 0.43 °C/decade for T2 and 0.41 °C/decade for T24, and 0.38 °C/decade for their trend difference in 5° × 5° grids. The use of T2 amplifies the regional contrasts of the warming rate, i.e., the trend underestimation in the US and overestimation at high latitudes by T2. PMID:27531421

Modelling of gas-metal arc welding taking into account metal vapour

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schnick, M.; Fuessel, U.; Hertel, M.; Haessler, M.; Spille-Kohoff, A.; Murphy, A. B.

2010-11-01

The most advanced numerical models of gas-metal arc welding (GMAW) neglect vaporization of metal, and assume an argon atmosphere for the arc region, as is also common practice for models of gas-tungsten arc welding (GTAW). These models predict temperatures above 20 000 K and a temperature distribution similar to GTAW arcs. However, spectroscopic temperature measurements in GMAW arcs demonstrate much lower arc temperatures. In contrast to measurements of GTAW arcs, they have shown the presence of a central local minimum of the radial temperature distribution. This paper presents a GMAW model that takes into account metal vapour and that is able to predict the local central minimum in the radial distributions of temperature and electric current density. The influence of different values for the net radiative emission coefficient of iron vapour, which vary by up to a factor of hundred, is examined. It is shown that these net emission coefficients cause differences in the magnitudes, but not in the overall trends, of the radial distribution of temperature and current density. Further, the influence of the metal vaporization rate is investigated. We present evidence that, for higher vaporization rates, the central flow velocity inside the arc is decreased and can even change direction so that it is directed from the workpiece towards the wire, although the outer plasma flow is still directed towards the workpiece. In support of this thesis, we have attempted to reproduce the measurements of Zielińska et al for spray-transfer mode GMAW numerically, and have obtained reasonable agreement.

Possible formation of high temperature superconductor at an early stage of heavy-ion collisions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Hao; Yu, Lang; Chernodub, Maxim; Huang, Mei

2016-12-01

We investigate the effect of the inverse magnetic catalysis (IMC) on charged ρ meson condensation at finite temperature in the framework of the Nambu-Jona-Lasinio model, where mesons are calculated to the leading order of 1 /Nc expansion. The IMC for chiral condensate has been considered using three different approaches: incorporating the chiral condensate from lattice data, using the running coupling constant, and introducing the chiral chemical potential, respectively. It is observed that with no IMC effect included, the critical magnetic field e Bc for charged ρ condensation increases monotonically with the temperature. However, including IMC substantially affects the polarized charged ρ condensation around the critical temperature Tc of the chiral phase transition: first, the critical magnetic field e Bc for the charged ρ condensation decreases with the temperature, reaches its minimum value around Tc, and then increases with the temperature. It is quite surprising that the charged ρ can condense above the critical temperature of chiral phase transition with a even smaller critical magnetic field comparing its vacuum value. The Nambu-Jona-Lasinio model calculation shows that in the temperature region of 1 - 1.5 Tc , the critical magnetic field for charged ρ condensation is rather small and in the region of e Bc˜0.15 - 0.3 GeV2 , which suggests that high temperature superconductor might be created through noncentral heavy ion collisions at LHC energies.

Evolution of the eastward shift in the quasi-stationary minimum of the Antarctic total ozone column

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grytsai, Asen; Klekociuk, Andrew; Milinevsky, Gennadi; Evtushevsky, Oleksandr; Stone, Kane

2017-02-01

The quasi-stationary pattern of the Antarctic total ozone has changed during the last 4 decades, showing an eastward shift in the zonal ozone minimum. In this work, the association between the longitudinal shift of the zonal ozone minimum and changes in meteorological fields in austral spring (September-November) for 1979-2014 is analyzed using ERA-Interim and NCEP-NCAR reanalyses. Regressive, correlative and anomaly composite analyses are applied to reanalysis data. Patterns of the Southern Annular Mode and quasi-stationary zonal waves 1 and 3 in the meteorological fields show relationships with interannual variability in the longitude of the zonal ozone minimum. On decadal timescales, consistent longitudinal shifts of the zonal ozone minimum and zonal wave 3 pattern in the middle-troposphere temperature at the southern midlatitudes are shown. Attribution runs of the chemistry-climate version of the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS-CCM) model suggest that long-term shifts of the zonal ozone minimum are separately contributed by changes in ozone-depleting substances and greenhouse gases. As is known, Antarctic ozone depletion in spring is strongly projected on the Southern Annular Mode in summer and impacts summertime surface climate across the Southern Hemisphere. The results of this study suggest that changes in zonal ozone asymmetry accompanying ozone depletion could be associated with regional climate changes in the Southern Hemisphere in spring.

Effects of urbanization on climate of İstanbul and Ankara

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karaca, Mehmet; Tayanç, Mete; Toros, Hüseyi˙n.

The purpose of this work is to study regional climate change and investigate the effects of urbanization on climates of two largest cities in Turkey: İstanbul and Ankara. Air temperature (mean, maximum and minimum) data of İstanbul and Ankara are analyzed to study regional climate change and to understand the possible effects of urbanization on the climate of these regions owing to industrialization and large flux of migration from rural parts of the country. For the trend analysis, linear regression and the sequential version of the Mann-Kendall test is used. A significant upward trend is found in the urban temperatures of southern İstanbul, which is the most highly populated and industrialized part of the city compared to its rural parts. Northern stations do not show any warming trend; instead, they have a cooling trend. Urbanization and industrialization in the southern part of İstanbul has a negative effect on regional cooling. In spite of Ankara's urban geometry and air pollution problem, the urban station in Ankara does not show any warming trend. A significant urban heat island intensity ( urban-rural) is not observed in Ankara.

46 CFR 153.370 - Minimum relief valve setting for ambient temperature cargo tanks.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... 46 Shipping 5 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Minimum relief valve setting for ambient temperature... temperature cargo tanks. The relief valve setting for a containment system that carries a cargo at ambient temperature must at least equal the cargo's vapor pressure at 46 °C (approx. 115 °F). [CGD 81-078, 50 FR 21173...

46 CFR 153.370 - Minimum relief valve setting for ambient temperature cargo tanks.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... 46 Shipping 5 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Minimum relief valve setting for ambient temperature... temperature cargo tanks. The relief valve setting for a containment system that carries a cargo at ambient temperature must at least equal the cargo's vapor pressure at 46 °C (approx. 115 °F). [CGD 81-078, 50 FR 21173...

46 CFR 153.370 - Minimum relief valve setting for ambient temperature cargo tanks.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... 46 Shipping 5 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Minimum relief valve setting for ambient temperature... temperature cargo tanks. The relief valve setting for a containment system that carries a cargo at ambient temperature must at least equal the cargo's vapor pressure at 46 °C (approx. 115 °F). [CGD 81-078, 50 FR 21173...

46 CFR 153.370 - Minimum relief valve setting for ambient temperature cargo tanks.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 46 Shipping 5 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Minimum relief valve setting for ambient temperature... temperature cargo tanks. The relief valve setting for a containment system that carries a cargo at ambient temperature must at least equal the cargo's vapor pressure at 46 °C (approx. 115 °F). [CGD 81-078, 50 FR 21173...

46 CFR 153.370 - Minimum relief valve setting for ambient temperature cargo tanks.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... 46 Shipping 5 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Minimum relief valve setting for ambient temperature... temperature cargo tanks. The relief valve setting for a containment system that carries a cargo at ambient temperature must at least equal the cargo's vapor pressure at 46 °C (approx. 115 °F). [CGD 81-078, 50 FR 21173...

The northern annular mode in summer and its relation to solar activity variations in the GISS ModelE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Jae N.; Hameed, Sultan; Shindell, Drew T.

2008-03-01

The northern annular mode (NAM) has been successfully used in several studies to understand the variability of the winter atmosphere and its modulation by solar activity. The variability of summer circulation can also be described by the leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF) of geopotential heights. We compare the annular modes of the summer geopotential heights in the northern hemisphere stratosphere and troposphere in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) ModelE with those in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis. In the stratosphere, the summer NAM obtained from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis as well as from the ModelE simulations has the same sign throughout the northern hemisphere, but shows greater variability at low latitudes. The patterns in both analyses are consistent with the interpretation that low NAM conditions represent an enhancement of the seasonal difference between the summer and the annual averages of geopotential height, temperature and velocity distributions, while the reverse holds for high NAM conditions. Composite analysis of high and low NAM cases in both model and observation suggests that the summer stratosphere is more "summer-like" when the solar activity is near a maximum. This means that the zonal easterly wind flow is stronger and the temperature is higher than normal. Thus increased irradiance favors a low summer NAM. A quantitative comparison of the anti-correlation between the NAM and the solar forcing is presented in the model and in the observation, both of which show lower/higher NAM index in solar maximum/minimum conditions. The temperature fluctuations in simulated solar minimum conditions are greater than in solar maximum throughout the summer stratosphere. The summer NAM in the troposphere obtained from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis has a dipolar zonal structure with maximum variability over the Asian monsoon region. The corresponding EOF in ModelE has a qualitatively similar structure but with less variability in the Asian monsoon region which is displaced eastward of its observed position. In both the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and the GCM the negative anomalies associated with the NAM in the Euro-Atlantic and Aleutian island regions are enhanced in the solar minimum conditions, though the results are not statistically significant.

[Temporal change in annual air temperature and heat island effect in a coastal city and an inland city at mid-latitude in China during 1956-1998].

PubMed

Chao, Lu-men; Sun, Jian-xin

2009-12-01

Temporal changes in air temperature and urban heat island (UHI) effects during 1956-1998 were compared between a coastal city, Ji' nan, and an inland city, Xi' an, which were similar in latitude, size and development. During 1956-1978, except that the annual mean minimum temperature in Ji' nan increased by 0.37 degrees C x 10 a(-1), the temperature variables in the two cities did not display any apparent trend. During 1979-1998, all temperature variables of the two cities showed an increasing trend. Comparing with that in Ji' nan, the increasing rate of annual mean maximum temperature and annual mean temperature in Xi' an was greater, but that of annual mean minimum temperature was smaller. In the two cities, heat island effect occurred during 1956-1978 but without any apparent trend, whereas during 1979-1998, this effect increased with time, especially in Xi' an where the annual mean minimum temperature and annual mean temperature increased by 0.22 degrees C x 10 a(-1) and 0.32 degrees C x 10 a(-1), respectively. Both the level and the inter-annual variation of the heat island effect were much greater in Ji' nan than in Xi' an, but the increasing rate of this effect was greater in Xi' an than in Ji' nan. Obvious differences were observed in the increasing rate of annual mean maximum air temperature, annual mean air temperature, and annual mean minimum temperature as well as the heat island effect in Ji' nan, whereas negligible differences were found in Xi' an. Among the three temperature variables, annual mean minimum temperature displayed the most obvious increasing trend and was most affected by heat island effect, while annual mean maximum temperature was most variable inter-annually. Geographical location not only affected the magnitude of urban warming, but also affected the mode of urban warming and the strength of heat island effect.

WRF model forecasts and their use for hydroclimate monitoring over southern South America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muller, Omar; Lovino, Miguel; Berbery, E. Hugo

2017-04-01

Weather forecasting and monitoring systems based on regional models are becoming increasingly relevant for decision support in agriculture and water management. This work evaluates the predictive and monitoring capabilities of a system based on WRF model simulations at 15 km grid spacing over a domain that encompasses La Plata Basin (LPB) in southern South America, where agriculture and water resources are essential. The model's skill up to a lead-time of 7 days is evaluated with daily precipitation and 2m temperature in-situ observations. Results show high prediction performance with 7 days lead-time throughout the domain and particularly over LPB, where about 70% of rain and no-rain days are correctly predicted. The scores tend to be better over humid climates than over arid-to-semiarid climates. Compared to the arid-semiarid climate, the humid climate has a higher probability of detection and less false alarms. The ranges of the skill scores are similar to those found over the United States, suggesting that proper choice of parameterizations lead to no loss of performance of the model. Daily mean, minimum and maximum forecast temperatures are highly correlated with observations up to 7 day lead time. The best performance is for daily mean temperature, followed by minimum temperature and a slightly weaker performance for maximum temperature over arid regions. The usefulness of WRF products for hydroclimate monitoring was tested for an unprecedented drought in southern Brazil and for a slightly above normal precipitation season in northeastern Argentina. In both cases the model products reproduce the observed precipitation conditions with consistent impacts on soil moisture, evapotranspiration and runoff. This evaluation validates the model's usefulness to fore-cast weather up to one week and to monitor climate conditions in real time. The scores suggest that the forecast lead-time can be extended into week two, while bias correction methods can reduce part of the systematic errors.

Buoyancy-assisted mixed convective flow over backward-facing step in a vertical duct using nanofluids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohammed, H. A.; Al-aswadi, A. A.; Yusoff, M. Z.; Saidur, R.

2012-03-01

Laminar mixed convective buoyancy assisting flow through a two-dimensional vertical duct with a backward-facing step using nanofluids as a medium is numerically simulated using finite volume technique. Different types of nanoparticles such as Au, Ag, Al2O3, Cu, CuO, diamond, SiO2 and TiO2 with 5 % volume fraction are used. The wall downstream of the step was maintained at a uniform wall temperature, while the straight wall that forms the other side of the duct was maintained at constant temperature equivalent to the inlet fluid temperature. The walls upstream of the step and the backward-facing step were considered as adiabatic surfaces. The duct has a step height of 4.9 mm and an expansion ratio of 1.942, while the total length in the downstream of the step is 0.5 m. The downstream wall was fixed at uniform wall temperature 0 ≤ Δ T≤ 30 °C, which was higher than the inlet flow temperature. The Reynolds number in the range of 75 ≤ Re ≤ 225 was considered. It is found that a recirculation region was developed straight behind the backward-facing step which appeared between the edge of the step and few millimeters before the corner which connect the step and the downstream wall. In the few millimeters gap between the recirculation region and the downstream wall, a U-turn flow was developed opposite to the recirculation flow which mixed with the unrecirculated flow and traveled along the channel. Two maximum and one minimum peaks in Nusselt number were developed along the heated downstream wall. It is inferred that Au nanofluid has the highest maximum peaks while diamond nanofluid has the highest minimum peak. Nanofluids with a higher Prandtl number have a higher peak of Nusselt numbers after the separation and the recirculation flow disappeared.

Weather Types, temperature and relief relationship in the Iberian Peninsula: A regional adiabatic processes under directional weather types

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peña Angulo, Dhais; Trigo, Ricardo; Cortesi, Nicola; Gonzalez-Hidalgo, Jose Carlos

2016-04-01

We have analyzed at monthly scale the spatial distribution of Pearson correlation between monthly mean of maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperatures with weather types (WTs) in the Iberian Peninsula (IP), represent them in a high spatial resolution grid (10km x 10km) from MOTEDAS dataset (Gonzalez-Hidalgo et al., 2015a). The WT classification was that developed by Jenkinson and Collison, adapted to the Iberian Peninsula by Trigo and DaCamara, using Sea Level Pressure data from NCAR/NCEP Reanalysis dataset (period 1951-2010). The spatial distribution of Pearson correlations shows a clear zonal gradient in Tmax under the zonal advection produced in westerly (W) and easterly (E) flows, with negative correlation in the coastland where the air mass come from but positive correlation to the inland areas. The same is true under North-West (NW), North-East (NE), South-West (SW) and South-East (SE) WTs. These spatial gradients are coherent with the spatial distribution of the main mountain chain and offer an example of regional adiabatic phenomena that affect the entire IP (Peña-Angulo et al., 2015b). These spatial gradients have not been observed in Tmin. We suggest that Tmin values are less sensitive to changes in Sea Level Pressure and more related to local factors. These directional WT present a monthly frequency over 10 days and could be a valuable tool for downscaling processes. González-Hidalgo J.C., Peña-Angulo D., Brunetti M., Cortesi, C. (2015a): MOTEDAS: a new monthly temperature database for mainland Spain and the trend in temperature (1951-2010). International Journal of Climatology 31, 715-731. DOI: 10.1002/joc.4298 Peña-Angulo, D., Trigo, R., Cortesi, C., González-Hidalgo, J.C. (2015b): The influence of weather types on the monthly average maximum and minimum temperatures in the Iberian Peninsula. Submitted to Hydrology and Earth System Sciences.

Urban Heat Wave Hazard Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quattrochi, D. A.; Jedlovec, G.; Crane, D. L.; Meyer, P. J.; LaFontaine, F.

2016-12-01

Heat waves are one of the largest causes of environmentally-related deaths globally and are likely to become more numerous as a result of climate change. The intensification of heat waves by the urban heat island effect and elevated humidity, combined with urban demographics, are key elements leading to these disasters. Better warning of the potential hazards may help lower risks associated with heat waves. Moderate resolution thermal data from NASA satellites is used to derive high spatial resolution estimates of apparent temperature (heat index) over urban regions. These data, combined with demographic data, are used to produce a daily heat hazard/risk map for selected cities. MODIS data are used to derive daily composite maximum and minimum land surface temperature (LST) fields to represent the amplitude of the diurnal temperature cycle and identify extreme heat days. Compositing routines are used to generate representative daily maximum and minimum LSTs for the urban environment. The limited effect of relative humidity on the apparent temperature (typically 10-15%) allows for the use of modeled moisture fields to convert LST to apparent temperature without loss of spatial variability. The daily max/min apparent temperature fields are used to identify abnormally extreme heat days relative to climatological values in order to produce a heat wave hazard map. Reference to climatological values normalizes the hazard for a particular region (e.g., the impact of an extreme heat day). A heat wave hazard map has been produced for several case study periods and then computed on a quasi-operational basis during the summer of 2016 for Atlanta, GA, Chicago, IL, St. Louis, MO, and Huntsville, AL. A hazard does not become a risk until someone or something is exposed to that hazard at a level that might do harm. Demographic information is used to assess the urban risk associated with the heat wave hazard. Collectively, the heat wave hazard product can warn people in urban regions who do not have the means to provide air conditioning or take other means to stay cool. The heat wave risk product is conveyed to users via a website that describes current and historical heat wave information and is updated in real time as needed. These risk maps can be used for better monitoring of public health risk from extreme heat events in urban areas.

Sustainability of winter tourism in a changing climate over Kashmir Himalaya.

PubMed

Dar, Reyaz Ahmad; Rashid, Irfan; Romshoo, Shakil Ahmad; Marazi, Asif

2014-04-01

Mountain areas are sensitive to climate change. Implications of climate change can be seen in less snow, receding glaciers, increasing temperatures, and decreasing precipitation. Climate change is also a severe threat to snow-related winter sports such as skiing, snowboarding, and cross-country skiing. The change in climate will put further pressure on the sensitive environment of high mountains. Therefore, in this study, an attempt has been made to know the impact of climate change on the snow precipitation, water resources, and winter tourism in the two famous tourist resorts of the Kashmir Valley. Our findings show that winters are getting prolonged with little snow falls on account of climate change. The average minimum and maximum temperatures are showing statistically significant increasing trends for winter months. The precipitation is showing decreasing trends in both the regions. A considerable area in these regions remains under the snow and glacier cover throughout the year especially during the winter and spring seasons. However, time series analysis of LandSat MODIS images using Normalized Difference Snow Index shows a decreasing trend in snow cover in both the regions from past few years. Similarly, the stream discharge, comprising predominantly of snow- and glacier-melt, is showing a statistically significant declining trend despite the melting of these glaciers. The predicted futuristic trends of temperature from Predicting Regional Climates for Impact Studies regional climate model are showing an increase which may enhance snow-melting in the near future posing a serious threat to the sustainability of winter tourism in the region. Hence, it becomes essential to monitor the changes in temperature and snow cover depletion in these basins in order to evaluate their effect on the winter tourism and water resources in the region.

Orbitally-resolved SST Changes during the EOT: Results from IODP 342 Expedition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Z.; He, Y.; Wilson, P. A.; Pagani, M.

2014-12-01

Sea surface temperature (SST) changes during the Eocene-Oligocene climate transition were characterized by substantial cooling at high latitudes and less cooling in low latitudes, with little information from mid-latitudes so far. Taking advantage of the newly retrieved drift sediments from the IODP 342 Expedition, we aim to reconstruct SST changes at the mid-latitude Newfoundland region, at an unprecedented orbital resolution from Site U1411. During the period investigated, 32-36 Ma, the alkenone UK'37 values range from 0.65 to 0.95, with values all greater than 0.80 before the transition and lower values (<0.80) occurring approximately at the eccentricity minimum nodes after the transition. No immediate cooling associated with Oi-1 glaciation was observed. During the Oligocene, SSTs during warm epochs (corresponding to eccentricity maxima) were not significantly cooler than before. Overall, SST fluctuations appear to be modulated by orbital changes throughout the record, although more apparent due to larger amplitude of SST variability after the transition. We thus hypothesize that the mid-latitude Newfoundland region was largely bathed by low-latitude warm waters during the transition and that polar waters (fronts) reached to the region occasionally at periods of eccentricity minimum nodes during the Oligocene.

Seasonal prediction skill of winter temperature over North India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tiwari, P. R.; Kar, S. C.; Mohanty, U. C.; Dey, S.; Kumari, S.; Sinha, P.

2016-04-01

The climatology, amplitude error, phase error, and mean square skill score (MSSS) of temperature predictions from five different state-of-the-art general circulation models (GCMs) have been examined for the winter (December-January-February) seasons over North India. In this region, temperature variability affects the phenological development processes of wheat crops and the grain yield. The GCM forecasts of temperature for a whole season issued in November from various organizations are compared with observed gridded temperature data obtained from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) for the period 1982-2009. The MSSS indicates that the models have skills of varying degrees. Predictions of maximum and minimum temperature obtained from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) climate forecast system model (NCEP_CFSv2) are compared with station level observations from the Snow and Avalanche Study Establishment (SASE). It has been found that when the model temperatures are corrected to account the bias in the model and actual orography, the predictions are able to delineate the observed trend compared to the trend without orography correction.

Morphotaxonomy and seasonal distribution of planktonic and benthic Prorocentrales in Karachi waters, Pakistan Northern Arabian Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Munir, Sonia; Burhan, Zaib-un-nisa; Naz, Tahira; Siddiqui, P. J. A.; Morton, Steve L.

2013-03-01

Morphotaxonomy and seasonal abundance of dinoflagellates of the genera Prorocentrum and Mesoporos (Prorocentrales) were studied from nutrient-rich waters, Karachi Harbor and the mouth of the Manora Channel, Pakistan during May 2002-July 2003. Using both light and scanning electron microscopy, 13 species of Prorocentrales were identified according to cell shape, size, ornamentation of thecal plates, and architecture of apical platelets, apical pore area, marginal pores, and intercalary bands. P. sigmoides, P. arcuatum, P. scutellum, P. donghaiense, P. balticum, P. minimum, P. emarginatum, P. lima, P. faustiae, and Mesoporos perforatus constitute new records for sindh coast of Pakistan. The most abundant species were P. minimum/P. balticum (4.5×103 cells/L), P. micans (1.1×103 cells/L), P. gracile / P. sigmoides (2.5×10 2 cells/L) and P. donghaiense (6.6×103 cells/L) at temperatures of 29-31°C and salinities of 35-40. Maximum abundance was observed in winter and lower abundance in summer. There was no significant change in the distribution of species between stations except for the benthic species which occurred close to Karachi Harbor waters. Significant positive correlations were observed between Prorocentrum spp. and temperature ( R 2 =0.27) and negative correlations with salinity ( R 2 =-0.32) except for P. minimum and P. emarginatum which has negative correlation with temperature ( R 2 =-0.24) and positive with salinity ( R 2 =0.08, 0.19). The finding of potential okadaic-acid producing species of benthic Prorocentrum call for monitoring for possible human health problems in this region.

Characteristics of Precipitation Features and Annual Rainfall during the TRMM Era in the Central Andes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mohr, Karen I.; Slayback, Daniel; Yager, Karina

2014-01-01

The central Andes extends from 7 deg to 21 deg S, with its eastern boundary defined by elevation (1000m and greater) and its western boundary by the coastline. The authors used a combination of surface observations, reanalysis, and the University of Utah Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation features (PF) database to understand the characteristics of convective systems and associated rainfall in the central Andes during the TRMM era, 1998-2012. Compared to other dry (West Africa), mountainous (Himalayas), and dynamically linked (Amazon) regions in the tropics, the central Andes PF population was distinct from these other regions, with small and weak PFs dominating its cumulative distribution functions and annual rainfall totals. No more than 10% of PFs in the central Andes met any of the thresholds used to identify and define deep convection (minimum IR cloud-top temperatures, minimum 85-GHz brightness temperature, maximum height of the 40-dBZ echo). For most of the PFs, available moisture was limited (less than 35mm) and instability low (less than 500 J kg(exp -1)). The central Andes represents a largely stable, dry to arid environment, limiting system development and organization. Hence, primarily short-duration events (less than 60 min) characterized by shallow convection and light to light-moderate rainfall rates (0.5-4.0 mm h(exp -1)) were found.

Laterally structured ripple and square phases with one and two dimensional thickness modulations in a model bilayer system.

PubMed

Debnath, Ananya; Thakkar, Foram M; Maiti, Prabal K; Kumaran, V; Ayappa, K G

2014-10-14

Molecular dynamics simulations of bilayers in a surfactant/co-surfactant/water system with explicit solvent molecules show formation of topologically distinct gel phases depending upon the bilayer composition. At low temperatures, the bilayers transform from the tilted gel phase, Lβ', to the one dimensional (1D) rippled, Pβ' phase as the surfactant concentration is increased. More interestingly, we observe a two dimensional (2D) square phase at higher surfactant concentration which, upon heating, transforms to the gel Lβ' phase. The thickness modulations in the 1D rippled and square phases are asymmetric in two surfactant leaflets and the bilayer thickness varies by a factor of ∼2 between maximum and minimum. The 1D ripple consists of a thinner interdigitated region of smaller extent alternating with a thicker non-interdigitated region. The 2D ripple phase is made up of two superimposed square lattices of maximum and minimum thicknesses with molecules of high tilt forming a square lattice translated from the lattice formed with the thickness minima. Using Voronoi diagrams we analyze the intricate interplay between the area-per-head-group, height modulations and chain tilt for the different ripple symmetries. Our simulations indicate that composition plays an important role in controlling the formation of low temperature gel phase symmetries and rippling accommodates the increased area-per-head-group of the surfactant molecules.

High-Resolution Dynamical Downscaling Ensemble Projections of Future Extreme Temperature Distributions for the United States

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zobel, Zachary; Wang, Jiali; Wuebbles, Donald J.

The aim of this study is to examine projections of extreme temperatures over the continental United States (CONUS) for the 21st century using an ensemble of high spatial resolution dynamically downscaled model simulations with different boundary conditions. The downscaling uses the Weather Research and Forecast model at a spatial resolution of 12 km along with outputs from three different Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 global climate models that provide boundary con- ditions under two different future greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration trajectories. The results from two decadal-length time slices (2045–2054 and 2085–2094) are compared with a historical decade (1995–2004). Probabilitymore » density functions of daily maximum/minimum temperatures are analyzed over seven climatologically cohesive regions of the CONUS. The impacts of different boundary conditions as well as future GHG concentrations on extreme events such as heat waves and days with temperature higher than 95°F are also investigated. The results show that the intensity of extreme warm temperature in future summer is significantly increased, while the frequency of extreme cold temperature in future winter decreases. The distribution of summer daily maximum temperature experiences a significant warm-side shift and increased variability, while the distribution of winter daily minimum temperature is projected to have a less significant warm-side shift with decreased variability. Finally, using "business-as-usual" scenario, 5-day heat waves are projected to occur at least 5–10 times per year in most CONUS and ≥ 95°F days will increase by 1–2 months by the end of the century.« less

High-Resolution Dynamical Downscaling Ensemble Projections of Future Extreme Temperature Distributions for the United States

DOE PAGES

Zobel, Zachary; Wang, Jiali; Wuebbles, Donald J.; ...

2017-11-20

The aim of this study is to examine projections of extreme temperatures over the continental United States (CONUS) for the 21st century using an ensemble of high spatial resolution dynamically downscaled model simulations with different boundary conditions. The downscaling uses the Weather Research and Forecast model at a spatial resolution of 12 km along with outputs from three different Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 global climate models that provide boundary con- ditions under two different future greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration trajectories. The results from two decadal-length time slices (2045–2054 and 2085–2094) are compared with a historical decade (1995–2004). Probabilitymore » density functions of daily maximum/minimum temperatures are analyzed over seven climatologically cohesive regions of the CONUS. The impacts of different boundary conditions as well as future GHG concentrations on extreme events such as heat waves and days with temperature higher than 95°F are also investigated. The results show that the intensity of extreme warm temperature in future summer is significantly increased, while the frequency of extreme cold temperature in future winter decreases. The distribution of summer daily maximum temperature experiences a significant warm-side shift and increased variability, while the distribution of winter daily minimum temperature is projected to have a less significant warm-side shift with decreased variability. Finally, using "business-as-usual" scenario, 5-day heat waves are projected to occur at least 5–10 times per year in most CONUS and ≥ 95°F days will increase by 1–2 months by the end of the century.« less

Effect of temperature on the occurrence and distribution of colorado potato beetle (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) in China.

PubMed

Li, Chao; Liu, Huai; Huang, Fangneng; Cheng, Deng-Fa; Wang, Jin-Jun; Zhang, Yun-Hui; Sun, Jin-Rui; Guo, Wen-Chao

2014-04-01

Colorado potato beetle, Leptinotarsa decemlineata (Say), is the most destructive pest of potato in many countries of the world. It first invaded China from Kazakhstan in 1990s and now is a major pest of potato in many areas of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region (Xinjiang). The objective of this study was to determine the effect of temperature on the spread of Colorado potato beetle in China after its invasion. Cold temperature in winter (December) and high temperature in summer (July) were analyzed in accordance with the absence and presence of Colorado potato beetle in Xinjiang. The boundary between the absence and presence of Colorado potato beetle in Xinjiang nearly coincided with the -8°C isotherm of monthly mean minimum temperature in winter. The stress of the low temperature in winter for Colorado potato beetle basically disappeared in the southeastern Hexi Corridor in Gansu Province of China, suggesting that the Hexi Corridor is the best channel to prevent any long-distance invasions of Colorado potato beetle into the Central Plains region. However, in Turpan City in northeastern Xinjiang, the extremely hot weather in the summer prevents the local colonization of Colorado potato beetle. Furthermore, according to our monitoring, high temperature in summer also limited Colorado potato beetle to diffuse eastward through Turpan. Results of this study suggest that it is essential to strengthen inspection and quarantine measures to prevent any artificial transmissions of Colorado potato beetle spreading eastward and thus to ensure the sustainable production of potato and other Solanaceae crops in northwest regions of China.

Homogenization of long instrumental temperature and precipitation series over the Spanish Northern Coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sigro, J.; Brunet, M.; Aguilar, E.; Stoll, H.; Jimenez, M.

2009-04-01

The Spanish-funded research project Rapid Climate Changes in the Iberian Peninsula (IP) Based on Proxy Calibration, Long Term Instrumental Series and High Resolution Analyses of Terrestrial and Marine Records (CALIBRE: ref. CGL2006-13327-C04/CLI) has as main objective to analyse climate dynamics during periods of rapid climate change by means of developing high-resolution paleoclimate proxy records from marine and terrestrial (lakes and caves) deposits over the IP and calibrating them with long-term and high-quality instrumental climate time series. Under CALIBRE, the coordinated project Developing and Enhancing a Climate Instrumental Dataset for Calibrating Climate Proxy Data and Analysing Low-Frequency Climate Variability over the Iberian Peninsula (CLICAL: CGL2006-13327-C04-03/CLI) is devoted to the development of homogenised climate records and sub-regional time series which can be confidently used in the calibration of the lacustrine, marine and speleothem time series generated under CALIBRE. Here we present the procedures followed in order to homogenise a dataset of maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation data on a monthly basis over the Spanish northern coast. The dataset is composed of thirty (twenty) precipitation (temperature) long monthly records. The data are quality controlled following the procedures recommended by Aguilar et al. (2003) and tested for homogeneity and adjusted by following the approach adopted by Brunet et al. (2008). Sub-regional time series of precipitation, maximum and minimum temperatures for the period 1853-2007 have been generated by averaging monthly anomalies and then adding back the base-period mean, according to the method of Jones and Hulme (1996). Also, a method to adjust the variance bias present in regional time series associated over time with varying sample size has been applied (Osborn et al., 1997). The results of this homogenisation exercise and the development of the associated sub-regional time series will be widely discussed. Initial comparisons with rapidly growing speleothems in two different caves indicate that speleothem trace element ratios like Ba/Ca are recording the decrease in littoral precipitation in the last several decades. References Aguilar, E., Auer, I., Brunet, M., Peterson, T. C. and Weringa, J. 2003. Guidelines on Climate Metadata and Homogenization, World Meteorological Organization (WMO)-TD no. 1186 / World Climate Data and Monitoring Program (WCDMP) no. 53, Geneva: 51 pp. Brunet M, Saladié O, Jones P, Sigró J, Aguilar E, Moberg A, Lister D, Walther A, Almarza C. 2008. A case-study/guidance on the development of long-term daily adjusted temperature datasets, WMO-TD-1425/WCDMP-66, Geneva: 43 pp. Jones, P D, and Hulme M, 1996, Calculating regional climatic time series for temperature and precipitation: Methods and illustrations, Int. J. Climatol., 16, 361- 377. Osborn, T. J., Briffa K. R., and Jones P. D., 1997, Adjusting variance for sample-size in tree-ring chronologies and other regional mean time series, Dendrochronologia, 15, 89- 99.

The cryptoendolithic microbial environment in the Ross Desert of Antarctica: satellite-transmitted continuous nanoclimate data, 1984 to 1986.

PubMed

Friedmann, E I; McKay, C P; Nienow, J A

1987-01-01

A satellite mediated station for monitoring nanoclimate (climate in the millimeter range) data, suitable for use in polar regions is described. The station, located in the Ross desert of Antarctica, has been in operation for more than 3 years, measuring rock temperatures, air temperature, light, snow, wind, and moisture. The data indicate that biological activity in the cryptoendolithic microbial ecosystem is limited to the period from mid November to mid February. The total number of hours of biological activity, based on assumptions of the minimum light, temperature and moisture requirements of the community, is less than 1000 h/year. The time above 0 degrees C, representing more nearly optimal conditions, is between 50 and 550 h/year, depending on the orientation of the surface.

The cryptoendolithic microbial environment in the Ross Desert of Antarctica: satellite-transmitted continuous nanoclimate data, 1984 to 1986

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Friedmann, E. I.; McKay, C. P.; Nienow, J. A.

1987-01-01

A satellite mediated station for monitoring nanoclimate (climate in the millimeter range) data, suitable for use in polar regions is described. The station, located in the Ross desert of Antarctica, has been in operation for more than 3 years, measuring rock temperatures, air temperature, light, snow, wind, and moisture. The data indicate that biological activity in the cryptoendolithic microbial ecosystem is limited to the period from mid November to mid February. The total number of hours of biological activity, based on assumptions of the minimum light, temperature and moisture requirements of the community, is less than 1000 h/year. The time above 0 degrees C, representing more nearly optimal conditions, is between 50 and 550 h/year, depending on the orientation of the surface.

Evaluation of the ASOS impact on climatic normals and assessment of variable-length time periods in calculation of normals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kauffman, Chad Matthew

The temperature and precipitation that describe the norm of daily, monthly, and seasonal climate conditions are ``climate normals.'' They are usually calculated based on climate data covering a 30-year period, and updated in every 10 years. The next update will take place in year 2001. Because of the advent of the Automated Surface Observations Systems (ASOS) beginning in early 1990s and recognized temperature bias between ASOS and the conventional temperature sensors there is an uncertainty of how the ASOS data should be used to calculate the 1971-2000 temperature normal. This study examined the uncertainty and offered a method to minimize it. It showed that the ASOS bias has a measurable impact on the new 30-year temperature normal. The impact varies among stations and climate regions. Some stations with a cooling trend in ASOS temperature have a cooler normal for their temperature, while others with a warming trend have a warmer normal for temperature. These quantitative evaluations of ASOS effect for stations and regions can be used to reduce ASOS bias in temperature normals. This study also evaluated temperature normals for different length periods and compared them to the 30-year normal. It showed that the difference between the normals, is smaller in maritime climate than in continental temperate climate. In the former, the six- year normal describes a similar temperature variation as the 30-year normal does. In the latter, the 18-year normal starts to resemble the temperature variation that the 30-year normal describes. These results provide a theoretical basis for applying different normals in different regions. The study further compared temperature normal for different periods and identified a seasonal shift in climate change in the southwestern U.S. where the summer maximum temperature has shifted to a late summer month and the winter minimum temperature shifted to an early winter month in the past 30 years.

Precipitation and temperature trends over central Italy (Abruzzo Region): 1951-2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scorzini, Anna Rita; Leopardi, Maurizio

2018-02-01

This study analyses spatial and temporal trends of precipitation and temperatures over Abruzzo Region (central Italy), using historical climatic data from a dense observation network. The results show a general, although not significant, negative trend in the regionally averaged annual precipitation (- 1.8% of the yearly mean rainfall per decade). This reduction is particularly evident in winter, especially at mountain stations (average - 3% change/decade). Despite this general decreasing trend, a partial rainfall recovery is observed after the 1980s. Furthermore, the majority of meteorological stations register a significant warming over the last 60 years, (mean annual temperature increase of + 0.15 °C/decade), which reflects a rise in both minimum and maximum temperatures, with the latter generally increasing at a faster rate. Spring and summer are the seasons which contribute most to the general temperature increase, in particular at high elevation sites, which exhibit a more pronounced warming (+ 0.24 °C/decade). However, this tendency has not been uniform over 1951-2012, but it has been characterised by a cooling phenomenon in the first 30 years (1951-1981), followed by an even stronger warming during the last three decades (1982-2012). Finally, correlations between the climatic variables and the dominant teleconnection patterns in the Mediterranean basin are analysed to identify the potential influence of large-scale atmospheric dynamics on observed trends in Abruzzo. The results highlight the dominant role of the East-Atlantic pattern on seasonal temperatures, while more spatially heterogeneous associations, depending on the complex topography of the region, are identified between winter precipitation and the North Atlantic Oscillation, East-Atlantic and East-Atlantic/Western Russian patterns.

Cross-scale modeling of surface temperature and tree seedling establishment inmountain landscapes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dingman, John; Sweet, Lynn C.; McCullough, Ian M.; Davis, Frank W.; Flint, Alan L.; Franklin, Janet; Flint, Lorraine E.

2013-01-01

Abstract: Introduction: Estimating surface temperature from above-ground field measurements is important for understanding the complex landscape patterns of plant seedling survival and establishment, processes which occur at heights of only several centimeters. Currently, future climate models predict temperature at 2 m above ground, leaving ground-surface microclimate not well characterized. Methods: Using a network of field temperature sensors and climate models, a ground-surface temperature method was used to estimate microclimate variability of minimum and maximum temperature. Temperature lapse rates were derived from field temperature sensors and distributed across the landscape capturing differences in solar radiation and cold air drainages modeled at a 30-m spatial resolution. Results: The surface temperature estimation method used for this analysis successfully estimated minimum surface temperatures on north-facing, south-facing, valley, and ridgeline topographic settings, and when compared to measured temperatures yielded an R2 of 0.88, 0.80, 0.88, and 0.80, respectively. Maximum surface temperatures generally had slightly more spatial variability than minimum surface temperatures, resulting in R2 values of 0.86, 0.77, 0.72, and 0.79 for north-facing, south-facing, valley, and ridgeline topographic settings. Quasi-Poisson regressions predicting recruitment of Quercus kelloggii (black oak) seedlings from temperature variables were significantly improved using these estimates of surface temperature compared to air temperature modeled at 2 m. Conclusion: Predicting minimum and maximum ground-surface temperatures using a downscaled climate model coupled with temperature lapse rates estimated from field measurements provides a method for modeling temperature effects on plant recruitment. Such methods could be applied to improve projections of species’ range shifts under climate change. Areas of complex topography can provide intricate microclimates that may allow species to redistribute locally as climate changes.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rice, C. Keith; Shen, Bo; Shrestha, Som S.

This report describes an analysis to investigate representative heating loads for single-family detached homes using current EnergyPlus simulations (DOE 2014a). Hourly delivered load results are used to determine binned load lines using US Department of Energy (DOE) residential prototype building models (DOE 2014b) developed by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). The selected residential single-family prototype buildings are based on the 2006 International Energy Conservation Code (IECC 2006) in the DOE climate regions. The resulting load lines are compared with the American National Standards Institute (ANSI)/Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI) Standard 210/240 (AHRI 2008) minimum and maximum design heating requirementmore » (DHR) load lines of the heating seasonal performance factor (HSPF) ratings procedure for each region. The results indicate that a heating load line closer to the maximum DHR load line, and with a lower zero load ambient temperature, is more representative of heating loads predicted for EnergyPlus prototype residential buildings than the minimum DHR load line presently used to determine HSPF ratings. An alternative heating load line equation was developed and compared to binned load lines obtained from the EnergyPlus simulation results. The effect on HSPF of the alternative heating load line was evaluated for single-speed and two-capacity heat pumps, and an average HSPF reduction of 16% was found. The alternative heating load line relationship is tied to the rated cooling capacity of the heat pump based on EnergyPlus autosizing, which is more representative of the house load characteristics than the rated heating capacity. The alternative heating load line equation was found to be independent of climate for the six DOE climate regions investigated, provided an adjustable zero load ambient temperature is used. For Region IV, the default DOE climate region used for HSPF ratings, the higher load line results in an ~28% increase in delivered heating load and an ~52% increase in the estimated heating operating cost over that given in the AHRI directory (AHRI 2014).« less

Climate Change Impacts on the Cryosphere of Mountain Regions: Validation of a Novel Model Using the Alaska Range

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mosier, T. M.; Hill, D. F.; Sharp, K. V.

2015-12-01

Mountain regions are natural water towers, storing water seasonally as snowpack and for much longer as glaciers. Understanding the response of these systems to climate change is necessary in order to make informed decisions about prevention or mitigation measures. Yet, mountain regions are often data sparse, leading many researchers to implement simple or enhanced temperature index (ETI) models to simulate cryosphere processes. These model structures do not account for the thermal inertia of snowpack and glaciers and do not robustly capture differences in system response to climate regimes that differ from those the model was calibrated for. For instance, a temperature index calibration parameter will differ substantially in cold-dry conditions versus warm-wet ones. To overcome these issues, we have developed a cryosphere hydrology model, called the Significantly Enhanced Temperature Index (SETI), which uses an energy balance structure but parameterizes energy balance components in terms of minimum, maximum and mean temperature, precipitation, and geometric inputs using established relationships. Additionally, the SETI model includes a glacier sliding model and can therefore be used to estimate long-term glacier response to climate change. Sensitivity of the SETI model to changing climate is compared with an ETI and a simple temperature index model for several partially-glaciated watersheds within Alaska, including Wolverine glacier where multi-decadal glacier stake measurements are available, to highlight the additional fidelity attributed to the increased complexity of the SETI structure. The SETI model is then applied to the entire Alaska Range region for an ensemble of global climate models (GCMs), using representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5. Comparing model runs based on ensembles of GCM projections to historic conditions, total annual snowfall within the Alaska region is not expected to change appreciably, but the spatial distribution of snow shifts towards higher elevations and for a large portion of the region the duration of snow cover decreases. The changes in temperature and snow distribution also lead to spatially heterogeneous responses by glaciers within the region. The SETI model is designed to be easy to apply for any mountain region where cryospheric processes dominate.

Temperature estimation from hydroxyl airglow emission in the Venus night side mesosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Migliorini, A.; Snels, M.; Gérard, J.-C.; Soret, L.; Piccioni, G.; Drossart, P.

2018-01-01

The temperature of the night side of Venus at about 95 km has been determined by using spectral features of the hydroxyl airglow emission around 3 μm, recorded from July 2006 to July 2008 by VIRTIS onboard Venus Express. The retrieved temperatures vary from 145.5 to about 198.1 K with an average value of 176.3 ± 14.3 K and are in good agreement with previous ground-based and space observations. The variability with respect to latitude and local time has been studied, showing a minimum of temperature at equatorial latitudes, while temperature values increase toward mid latitudes with a local maximum at about 35°N. The present work provides an independent contribution to the temperature estimation in the transition region between the Venus upper mesosphere and the lower thermosphere, by using the OH emission as a thermometer, following the technique previously applied to the high-resolution O2(a1Δg) airglow emissions observed from ground.

Detection of the relationship between peak temperature and extreme precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Y.; Liu, J.; Zhiyong, Y.

2017-12-01

Under the background of climate change and human activities, the characteristics and pattern of precipitation have changed significantly in many regions. As the political and cultural center of China, the structure and character of precipitation in Jingjinji District has varied dramatically in recent years. In this paper, the daily precipitation data throughout the period 1960-2013 are selected for analyzing the spatial-temporal variability of precipitation. The results indicate that the frequency and intensity of precipitation presents an increasing trend. Based on the precipitation data, the maximum, minimum and mean precipitation in different temporal and spatial scales is calculated respectively. The temporal and spatial variation of temperature is obtained by using statistical methods. The relationship between temperature and precipitation in different range is analyzed. The curve relates daily precipitation extremes with local temperatures has a peak structure, increasing at the low-medium range of temperature variations but decreasing at high temperatures. The relationship between extreme precipitation is stronger in downtown than that in suburbs.

The influence of meteorological factors and biomass burning on surface ozone concentrations at Tanah Rata, Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toh, Ying Ying; Lim, Sze Fook; von Glasow, Roland

2013-05-01

The surface ozone concentrations at the Tanah Rata regional Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) station, Malaysia (4°28‧N, 101°23‧E, 1545 m above Mean Sea Level (MSL)) from June 2006 to August 2008 were analyzed in this study. Overall the ozone mixing ratios are very low; the seasonal variations show the highest mixing ratios during the Southwest monsoon (average 19.1 ppb) and lowest mixing ratios during the spring intermonsoon (average 14.2 ppb). The diurnal variation of ozone is characterised by an afternoon maximum and night time minimum. The meteorological conditions that favour the formation of high ozone levels at this site are low relative humidity, high temperature and minimum rainfall. The average ozone concentration is lower during precipitation days compared to non-precipitation days. The hourly averaged ozone concentrations show significant correlations with temperature and relative humidity during the Northeast monsoon and spring intermonsoon. The highest concentrations are observed when the wind is blowing from the west. We found an anticorrelation between the atmospheric pressure tide and ozone concentrations. The ozone mixing ratios do not exceed the recommended Malaysia Air Quality Guidelines for 1-h and 8-h averages. Five day backward trajectories on two high ozone episodes in 07 August 2006 (40.0 ppb) and 24 February 2008 (45.7 ppb) are computed using the HYbrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model to investigate the origin of the pollutants and influence of regional transport. The high ozone episode during 07 August 2006 (burning season during southwest monsoon) is mainly attributed to regional transport from biomass burning in Sumatra, whereas favourable meteorological conditions (i.e. low relative humidity, high temperature and solar radiation, zero rainfall) and long range transport from Indo-China have elevated the ozone concentrations during 24 February 2008.

Predictions of thermal buckling strengths of hypersonic aircraft sandwich panels using minimum potential energy and finite element methods

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ko, William L.

1995-01-01

Thermal buckling characteristics of hypersonic aircraft sandwich panels of various aspect ratios were investigated. The panel is fastened at its four edges to the substructures under four different edge conditions and is subjected to uniform temperature loading. Minimum potential energy theory and finite element methods were used to calculate the panel buckling temperatures. The two methods gave fairly close buckling temperatures. However, the finite element method gave slightly lower buckling temperatures than those given by the minimum potential energy theory. The reasons for this slight discrepancy in eigensolutions are discussed in detail. In addition, the effect of eigenshifting on the eigenvalue convergence rate is discussed.

Texturing by cooling a metallic melt in a magnetic field.

PubMed

Tournier, Robert F; Beaugnon, Eric

2009-02-01

Processing in a magnetic field leads to the texturing of materials along an easy-magnetization axis when a minimum anisotropy energy exists at the processing temperature; the magnetic field can be applied to a particle assembly embedded into a liquid, or to a solid at a high diffusion temperature close to the melting temperature or between the liquidus and the solidus temperatures in a region of partial melting. It has been shown in many experiments that texturing is easy to achieve in congruent and noncongruent compounds by applying the field above the melting temperature T m or above the liquidus temperature of alloys. Texturing from a melt is successful when the overheating temperature is just a few degrees above T m and fails when the processing time above T m is too long or when the overheating temperature is too high; these observations indicate the presence of unmelted crystals above T m with a size depending on these two variables that act as growth nuclei. A recent model that predicts the existence of unmelted crystals above the melting temperature is used to calculate their radius in a bismuth melt.

Present and future ecological niche modeling of garter snake species from the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt

PubMed Central

García-Vázquez, Uri; D’Addario, Maristella

2018-01-01

Land use and climate change are affecting the abundance and distribution of species. The Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt (TMVB) is a very diverse region due to geological history, geographic position, and climate. It is also one of the most disturbed regions in Mexico. Reptiles are particularly sensitive to environmental changes due to their low dispersal capacity and thermal ecology. In this study, we define the important environmental variables (considering climate, topography, and land use) and potential distribution (present and future) of the five Thamnophis species present in TMVB. To do so, we used the maximum entropy modeling software (MAXENT). First, we modeled to select the most important variables to explain the distribution of each species, then we modeled again using only the most important variables and projected these models to the future considering a middle-moderate climate change scenario (rcp45), and land use and vegetation variables for the year 2050 (generated according to land use changes that occurred between years 2002 and 2011). Arid vegetation had an important negative effect on habitat suitability for all species, and minimum temperature of the coldest month was important for four of the five species. Thamnophis cyrtopsis was the species with the lowest tolerance to minimum temperatures. The maximum temperature of the warmest month was important for T. scalaris and T. cyrtopsis. Low percentages of agriculture were positive for T. eques and T. melanogaster but, at higher values, agriculture had a negative effect on habitat suitability for both species. Elevation was the most important variable to explain T. eques and T. melanogaster potential distribution while distance to Abies forests was the most important variable for T. scalaris and T. scaliger. All species had a high proportion of their potential distribution in the TMVB. However, according to our models, all Thamnophis species will experience reductions in their potential distribution in this region. T. scalaris will suffer the biggest reduction because this species is limited by high temperatures and will not be able to shift its distribution upward, as it is already present in the highest elevations of the TMVB. PMID:29666767

A comparison of photospheric electric current and ultraviolet and X-ray emission in a solar active region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haisch, B. M.; Bruner, M. E.; Hagyard, M. J.; Bonnet, R. M.

1986-01-01

This paper presents an extensive set of coordinated observations of a solar active region, taking into account spectroheliograms obtained with the aid of the Solar Maximum Mission (SMM) Ultraviolet Spectrometer Polarimeter (UVSP) instrument, SMM soft X-ray polychromator (XRP) raster maps, and high spatial resolution ultraviolet images of the sun in Lyman-alpha and in the 1600 A continuum. These data span together the upper solar atmosphere from the temperature minimum to the corona. The data are compared to maps of the inferred photospheric electric current derived from the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) vector magnetograph observations. Some empirical correlation is found between regions of inferred electric current density and the brightest features in the ultraviolet continuum and to a lesser extent those seen in Lyman-alpha within an active region.

Formation of plasmonic silver nanoparticles using rapid thermal annealing at low temperature and study in reflectance reduction of Si surface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barman, Bidyut; Dhasmana, Hrishikesh; Verma, Abhishek; Kumar, Amit; Pratap Chaudhary, Shiv; Jain, V. K.

2017-09-01

This work presents studies of plasmonic silver nanoparticles (AgNPs) formation at low temperatures (200 °C-300 °C) onto Si surface by sputtering followed with rapid thermal processing (RTP) for different time durations(5-30 min). The study reveals that 20 min RTP at all temperatures show minimum average size of AgNPs (60.42 nm) with corresponding reduction in reflectance of Si surface from 40.12% to mere 1.15% only in wavelength region 300-800 nm for RTP at 200 °C. A detailed supporting growth mechanism is also discussed. This low temperature technique can be helpful in achieving efficiency improvement in solar cells via reflectance reduction with additional features such as reproducibility, minimal time and very good adhesion without damaging underlying layers device parameters.

Weekly cycle in the NCAR-NCEP reanalysis of the surface temperature over northern atlantic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tesouro, M.; Gimeno, L.; Nieto, R.; Añel, J. A.; de La Torre, L.; Ribera, P.; García, R.; Hernández, E.

2003-04-01

Anthropogenic influences on climate has been detected in several climate variables, such as temperature increases and precipitation enhacement. An indicator of the anthropogenic effect is the identification of equivalent weekly cycle in climate parameters. In this case, we analyze the weekly cycle of the daily temperature at 2 metres from the NCAR-NCEP Reanalysis. The region of study is the window from 90ºW to 90ºE and from 88.5ºN to Equator and for the last 44 years. Results don´t show a clear pattern of the weekly cycle although it was possible to identify a minimum on Saturday in most of the grid points. We also analyze the weekly cycle of the temperature channel-2 MSU data that represent the lower troposphere and results don´t show any weekly cycle.

Io's Heat Flow: A Model Including "Warm" Polar Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Veeder, G. J.; Matson, D. L.; Johnson, T. V.; Davies, A. G.; Blaney, D. L.

2002-12-01

Some 90 percent of Io's surface is thermally "passive" material. It is separate from the sites of active volcanic eruptions. Though "passive", its thermal behavior continues to be a challenge for modelers. The usual approach is to take albedo, average daytime temperature, temperature as a function of time of day, etc., and attempt to match these constraints with a uniform surface with a single value of thermal inertia. Io is a case where even globally averaged observations are inconsistent with a single-thermal-inertia model approach. The Veeder et al. (1994) model for "passive" thermal emission addressed seven constraints derived from a decade of ground-based, global observations - average albedo plus infrared fluxes at three separate wavelengths (4.8, 8.7, and 20 microns) for both daytime and eclipsed conditions. This model has only two components - a unit of infinite thermal inertia and a unit of zero thermal inertia. The free parameters are the areal coverage ratio of the two units and their relative albedos (constrained to match the known average albedo). This two-parameter model agreed with the global radiometric data and also predicted significantly higher non-volcanic nighttime temperatures than traditional ("lunar-like") single thermal inertia models. Recent observations from the Galileo infrared radiometer show relatively uniform minimum-night-time temperatures. In particular, they show little variation with either latitude or time of night (Spencer et al., 2000; Rathbun et al., 2002). Additionally, detailed analyses of Io's scattering properties and reflectance variations have led to the interesting conclusion that Io's albedo at regional scales varies little with latitude (Simonelli, et al., 2001). This effectively adds four new observational constraints - lack of albedo variation with latitude, average minimum nighttime temperature and lack of variation of temperature with either latitude or longitude. We have made the fewest modifications necessary for the Veeder et al. model to match these new constrains - we added two model parameters to characterize the volcanically heated high-latitude units. These are the latitude above which the unit exists and its nighttime temperature. The resulting four-parameter model is the first that encompasses all of the available observations of Io's thermal emission and that quantitatively satisfies all eleven observational constraints. While no model is unique, this model is significant because it is the first to accommodate widespread polar regions that are relatively "warm". This work was carried out at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, under contract to NASA.

Different Patterns of the Urban Heat Island Intensity from Cluster Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silva, F. B.; Longo, K.

2014-12-01

This study analyzes the different variability patterns of the Urban Heat Island intensity (UHII) in the Metropolitan Area of Rio de Janeiro (MARJ), one of the largest urban agglomerations in Brazil. The UHII is defined as the difference in the surface air temperature between the urban/suburban and rural/vegetated areas. To choose one or more stations that represent those areas we used the technique of cluster analysis on the air temperature observations from 14 surface weather stations in the MARJ. The cluster analysis aims to classify objects based on their characteristics, gathering similar groups. The results show homogeneity patterns between air temperature observations, with 6 homogeneous groups being defined. Among those groups, one might be a natural choice for the representative urban area (Central station); one corresponds to suburban area (Afonsos station); and another group referred as rural area is compound of three stations (Ecologia, Santa Cruz and Xerém) that are located in vegetated regions. The arithmetic mean of temperature from the three rural stations is taken to represent the rural station temperature. The UHII is determined from these homogeneous groups. The first UHII is estimated from urban and rural temperature areas (Case 1), whilst the second UHII is obtained from suburban and rural temperature areas (Case 2). In Case 1, the maximum UHII occurs in two periods, one in the early morning and the other at night, while the minimum UHII occurs in the afternoon. In Case 2, the maximum UHII is observed during afternoon/night and the minimum during dawn/early morning. This study demonstrates that the stations choice reflects different UHII patterns, evidencing that distinct behaviors of this phenomenon can be identified.

[Difference in responses of major tree species growth to climate in the Miyaluo Mountains, western Sichuan, China].

PubMed

Guo, Ming-ming; Zhang, Yuan-dong; Wang, Xiao-chun; Liu, Shi-rong

2015-08-01

To explore the responses of different tree species growth to climate change in the semi-humid region of the eastern Tibetan Plateau, we investigated climate-growth relationships of Tsuga chinensis, Abies faxoniana, Picea purpurea at an altitude of 3000 m (low altitude) and A. faxoniana and Larix mastersiana at an altitude of 4000 m (high altitude) using tree ring-width chronologies (total of 182 cores) developed from Miyaluo, western Sichuan, China. Five residual chronologies were developed from the cross-dated ring width series using the program ARSTAN, and the relationships between monthly climate variables and tree-ring index were analyzed. Results showed that the chronologies of trees at low altitudes were negatively correlated with air temperature but positively with precipitation in April and May. This indicated that drought stress limited tree growth at low altitude, but different tree species showed significant variations. T. chinensis was most severely affected by drought stress, followed by A. faxoniana and P. purpurea. Trees at high altitude were mainly affected by growing season temperature. Tree-ring index of A. faxoniana was positively correlated with monthly minimum temperature in February and July of the current year and monthly maximum temperature in October of the previous year. Radial growth of L. mastersiana was positively correlated with monthly maximum temperature in May, and negatively with monthly mean temperature in February and monthly minimum temperature in March. In recent decadal years, the climate in northeast Tibetan Plateau had a warming and drying trend. If this trend continues, we could deduce that P. purpurea should grow faster than T. chinensis and A. faxoniana at low altitudes, while A. faxoniana would benefit more from global warming at high altitudes.

ENSO's far reaching connection to Indian cold waves.

PubMed

Ratnam, J V; Behera, Swadhin K; Annamalai, H; Ratna, Satyaban B; Rajeevan, M; Yamagata, Toshio

2016-11-23

During boreal winters, cold waves over India are primarily due to transport of cold air from higher latitudes. However, the processes associated with these cold waves are not yet clearly understood. Here by diagnosing a suite of datasets, we explore the mechanisms leading to the development and maintenance of these cold waves. Two types of cold waves are identified based on observed minimum surface temperature and statistical analysis. The first type (TYPE1), also the dominant one, depicts colder than normal temperatures covering most parts of the country while the second type (TYPE2) is more regional, with significant cold temperatures only noticeable over northwest India. Quite interestingly the first (second) type is associated with La Niña (El Niño) like conditions, suggesting that both phases of ENSO provide a favorable background for the occurrence of cold waves over India. During TYPE1 cold wave events, a low-level cyclonic anomaly generated over the Indian region as an atmospheric response to the equatorial convective anomalies is seen advecting cold temperatures into India and maintaining the cold waves. In TYPE2 cold waves, a cyclonic anomaly generated over west India anomalously brings cold winds to northwest India causing cold waves only in those parts.

The X-ray eclipse of the LMC binary CAL 87

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schmidtke, P. C.; Mcgrath, T. K.; Cowley, A. P.; Frattare, L. M.

1993-01-01

ROSAT-PSPC observations of the LMC eclipsing binary CAL 87 show a short-duration, shallow X-ray eclipse which coincides in phase with the primary optical minimum. Characteristics of the eclipse suggest the X-ray emitting region is only partially occulted. Similarities with the eclipse of the accretion-disk corona in X 1822-37 are discussed. However, no temperature variation through eclipse is found for CAL 87. A revised orbital period, combining published data and recent optical photometry, is given.

Possible role of the dimming/brightening in observed temperatures across Europe since the second half of the 20th century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van den Besselaar, E. J. M.; Sanchez-Lorenzo, A.; Wild, M.; Klein Tank, A. M. G.

2012-04-01

The surface solar radiation (SSR) is the fundamental source of energy in the climate system, and consequently the source of life on our planet, due to its central role in the surface energy balance. Therefore, a significant impact on temperatures is expected due to the widespread dimming/brightening phenomenon observed since the second half of the 20th century (Wild, 2009). Previous studies pointed out the effects of SSR trends in temperatures series over Europe (Makowski et al., 2009; Philipona et al., 2009), although the lack of long-term SSR series limits these results. This work describes an updated sunshine duration (SS) dataset compiled by the European Climate Assessment and Dataset (ECA&D) project based on around 300 daily time series over Europe covering the 1961-2010 period. The relationship between the SS and temperature series is analysed based on four temperature variables: maximum (TX), minimum (TN) and mean temperature (TG), as well as the diurnal temperature range (DTR). Regional and pan-European mean series of SS and temperatures are constructed. The analyses are performed on annual and seasonal scale, and focusing on the interannual and decadal agreement between the variables. The results show strong positive correlations on interannual scales between SS and temperatures over Europe, especially for the DTR and TX during the summer period and regions in Central Europe. Interestingly, the SS and temperatures series show a tendency towards higher correlations in the smoothed series, both for different regions and temperature variables. These results confirm the relationship between temperature and SS trends over Europe since the second half of the 20th century, which has been speculated to partially decrease (increase) temperatures during the dimming (brightening) period (Makowski et al., 2009; Wild, 2009). Further research is needed to confirm this cause-effect relationship currently found only using correlation analysis.

The neotropical shrub Lupinus elegans, fromtemperate forests, may not adapt to climate change.

PubMed

Soto-Correa, J C; Sáenz-Romero, C; Lindig-Cisneros, R; de la Barrera, E

2013-05-01

Considering that their distribution is limited to altitudinal gradients along mountains that are likely to become warmer and drier, climate change poses an increased threat to temperate forest species from tropical regions. We studied whether the understorey shrub Lupinus elegans, endemic to temperate forests of west-central Mexico, will be able to withstand the projected temperature increase under seven climate change scenarios. Seeds were collected along an altitudinal gradient and grown in a shade-house over 7 months before determining their temperature tolerance as electrolyte leakage. The plants from colder sites tolerated lower temperatures, i.e. the temperature at which half of the maximum electrolyte leakage occurred (LT50), ranged from −6.4 ± 0.7 to −2.4 ± 0.3 °C. In contrast, no pattern was found for tolerance to high temperature (LT50 average 42.8 ± 0.3 °C). The climate change scenarios considered here consistently estimated an increase in air temperature during the present century that was higher for the maximum air temperature than for the mean or minimum. In particular, the anomaly from the normal maximum air temperature at the study region ranged from 2.8 °C by 2030 to 5.8 °C by 2090. In this respect, the inability of L. elegans to adapt to increasingly higher temperatures found here, in addition to a possible inhibition of reproduction caused by warmer winters, may limit its future distribution.

Maximum reflectance and transmittance of films coated with gapped graphene in the context of the Dirac model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klimchitskaya, G. L.; Mostepanenko, V. M.

2018-06-01

The analytic expressions for the maximum and minimum reflectances of optical films coated with gapped graphene are derived in the application region of the Dirac model taking into account multiple reflections. The respective film thicknesses are also found. In so doing the film material is described by the frequency-dependent index of refraction and graphene by the polarization tensor defined along the real frequency axis. The developed formalism is illustrated by an example of the graphene-coated film made of amorphous silica. Numerical computations of the maximum and minimum reflectances and respective film thicknesses are performed at room temperature in two frequency regions belonging to the near-infrared and far-infrared domains. It is shown that in the far-infrared domain the graphene coating has a profound effect on the values of maximum reflectance and respective film thickness leading to a relative increase in their values by up to 65% and 50%, respectively. The maximum transmittance of a graphene-coated film of appropriately chosen thickness is shown to exceed 90%. Possible applications of the obtained results are discussed.

Canadian crop calendars in support of the early warning project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Trenchard, M. H.; Hodges, T. (Principal Investigator)

1980-01-01

The Canadian crop calendars for LACIE are presented. Long term monthly averages of daily maximum and daily minimum temperatures for subregions of provinces were used to simulate normal daily maximum and minimum temperatures. The Robertson (1968) spring wheat and Williams (1974) spring barley phenology models were run using the simulated daily temperatures and daylengths for appropriate latitudes. Simulated daily temperatures and phenology model outputs for spring wheat and spring barley are given.

Comparing exposure metrics for classifying ‘dangerous heat’ in heat wave and health warning systems

PubMed Central

Zhang, Kai; Rood, Richard B.; Michailidis, George; Oswald, Evan M.; Schwartz, Joel D.; Zanobetti, Antonella; Ebi, Kristie L.; O’Neill, Marie S.

2012-01-01

Heat waves have been linked to excess mortality and morbidity, and are projected to increase in frequency and intensity with a warming climate. This study compares exposure metrics to trigger heat wave and health warning systems (HHWS), and introduces a novel multi-level hybrid clustering method to identify potential dangerously hot days. Two-level and three-level hybrid clustering analysis as well as common indices used to trigger HHWS, including spatial synoptic classification (SSC); and 90th, 95th, and 99th percentiles of minimum and relative minimum temperature (using a 10 day reference period), were calculated using a summertime weather dataset in Detroit from 1976 to 2006. The days classified as ‘hot’ with hybrid clustering analysis, SSC, minimum and relative minimum temperature methods differed by method type. SSC tended to include the days with, on average, 2.6 °C lower daily minimum temperature and 5.3 °C lower dew point than days identified by other methods. These metrics were evaluated by comparing their performance in predicting excess daily mortality. The 99th percentile of minimum temperature was generally the most predictive, followed by the three-level hybrid clustering method, the 95th percentile of minimum temperature, SSC and others. Our proposed clustering framework has more flexibility and requires less substantial meteorological prior information than the synoptic classification methods. Comparison of these metrics in predicting excess daily mortality suggests that metrics thought to better characterize physiological heat stress by considering several weather conditions simultaneously may not be the same metrics that are better at predicting heat-related mortality, which has significant implications in HHWSs. PMID:22673187

Heat waves in Senegal : detection, characterization and associated processes.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gnacoussa Sambou, Marie Jeanne; Janicot, Serge; Badiane, Daouda; Pohl, Benjamin; Dieng, Abdou L.; Gaye, Amadou T.

2017-04-01

Atmospheric configuration and synoptic evolution of patterns associated with Senegalese heat wave (HW) are examined on the period 1979-2014 using the Global Surface Summary of the Day (GSOD) observational database and ERA-Interim reanalysis. Since there is no objective and uniform definition of HW events, threshold methods based on atmospheric variables as daily maximum (Tmax) / minimum (Tmin) temperatures and daily mean apparent temperature (AT) are used to define HW threshold detection. Each criterion is related to a specific category of HW events: Tmax (warm day events), Tmin (warm night events) and AT (combining temperature and moisture). These definitions are used in order to characterize as well as possible the warm events over the Senegalese regions (oceanic versus continental region). Statistics on time evolution and spatial distribution of warm events are carried out over the 2 seasons of maximum temperature (March-May and October-November). For each season, a composite of HW events, as well as the most extended event over Senegal (as a case study) are analyzed using usual atmospheric fields (sea level pressure, geopotential height, total column water content, wind components, 2m temperature). This study is part of the project ACASIS (https://acasis.locean-ipsl.upmc.fr/doku.php) on heat waves occurrences over the Sahel and their impact on health. Keywords: heat wave, Senegal, ACASIS.

Soil temperature investigations using satellite acquired thermal-infrared data in semi-arid regions. Thesis. Final Report; [Utah

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Day, R. L.; Petersen, G. W.

1983-01-01

Thermal-infrared data from the Heat Capacity Mapping Mission satellite were used to map the spatial distribution of diurnal surface temperatures and to estimate mean annual soil temperatures (MAST) and annual surface temperature amplitudes (AMP) in semi-arid east central Utah. Diurnal data with minimal snow and cloud cover were selected for five dates throughout a yearly period and geometrically co-registered. Rubber-sheet stretching was aided by the WARP program which allowed preview of image transformations. Daytime maximum and nighttime minimum temperatures were averaged to generation average daily temperature (ADT) data set for each of the five dates. Five ADT values for each pixel were used to fit a sine curve describing the theoretical annual surface temperature response as defined by a solution of a one-dimensinal heat flow equation. Linearization of the equation produced estimates of MAST and AMP plus associated confidence statistics. MAST values were grouped into classes and displayed on a color video screen. Diurnal surface temperatures and MAST were primarily correlated with elevation.

Variability of Surface pollutants and aerosol concentration over Abu Dhabi, UAE - sources, transport and current levels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Phanikumar, Devulapalli V.; Basha, Ghouse; Ouarda, Taha B. M. J.

2015-04-01

In the view of recent economic, industrial, and rapid development, Abu Dhabi (24.4oN; 54.4oE; 27m msl) has become one of the most populated regions in the world despite of extreme heat, frequent dust storms, and with distinctive topography. The major sources of air pollution are from the dust and sand storms, greenhouse gas emissions, and to some extent from industrial pollution. In order to realize the accurate and comprehensive understanding of air quality and plausible sources over this region, we have made a detailed analysis of three years simultaneous measurements during 2011-13 of pollutants such as O3, SO2, NO2, CO, and PM10 concentrations. Diurnal variation of meteorological parameters such as temperature and wind speed/relative humidity clearly shows daytime maximum/minimum in summer followed by pre-monsoon, post-monsoon and winter. The prevailing winds over this region are mostly from northwesterly direction (Shamal wind). Diurnal wind pattern showed a clear contrast with the majority of the wind pattern during nighttime and early morning is from the westerly/northwesterly and daytime is from southwesterly/southeasterly directions. The diurnal pattern of O3 shows minimum during 08 LT and increases thereafter reaching maximum at 17 LT and decreases during nighttime. However, the diurnal pattern of SO2 and NO2 show a peak at ~ 08 LT and dip at ~ 14 LT during all the seasons with some variability in each season. On the other hand, the diurnal pattern of CO shows a peculiar picture of elevated levels during daytime peaking at ~ 10 LT (prominent in summer and post-monsoon) followed by a sharp decrease and minimum is ~14 LT. PM10 concentration has an early morning peak at ~ 02 LT and then decreases to a minimum value at ~11 LT and again increases in the afternoon hours (maximum at ~17 LT) depicting a forenoon-afternoon asymmetry. Monthly variation of PM10 shows maximum in pre-monsoon season and minimum in winter. Our observations show the diurnal pattern of pollutants are in contrast with the diurnal pattern of wind speed as evident from the previous observations. Wind rose diagram of pollutants reveal that the dominant source directions are scattered from northwesterly to southwesterly. Our results (2011-13) are compared with earlier observations from the same region (2007-08) and no alarming differences were observed in the pollutant levels. Our observations are discussed in the light of current understanding of pollutants sources over this region.

Elevated temperature ductility of types 304 and 316 stainless steel. [640/sup 0/ to 750/sup 0/C

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sikka, V. K.

1978-01-01

Austenitic stainless steel types 304 and 316 are known for their high ductility and toughness. However, the present study shows that certain combinations of strain rate and test temperature can result in a significant loss in elevated-temperature ductility. Such a phenomenon is referred to as ductility minimum. The strain rate, below which ductility loss is initiated, decreases with decrease in test temperature. Besides strain rate and temperature, the ductility minimum was also affected by nitrogen content and thermal aging conditions. Thermal aging at 649/sup 0/C was observed to eliminate the ductility minimum at 649/sup 0/C in both types 304 andmore » 316 stainless steel. Such an aging treatment resulted in a higher ductility than the unaged value. Aging at 593/sup 0/C still resulted in some loss in ductility. Current results suggest that ductility-minimum conditions for stainless steel should be considered in design, thermal aging data analysis, and while studying the effects of chemical composition.« less

The surface climatology of the Ross Ice Shelf Antarctica.

PubMed

Costanza, Carol A; Lazzara, Matthew A; Keller, Linda M; Cassano, John J

2016-12-01

The University of Wisconsin-Madison Antarctic Automatic Weather Station (AWS) project has been making meteorological surface observations on the Ross Ice Shelf (RIS) for approximately 30 years. This network offers the most continuous set of routine measurements of surface meteorological variables in this region. The Ross Island area is excluded from this study. The surface climate of the RIS is described using the AWS measurements. Temperature, pressure, and wind data are analysed on daily, monthly, seasonal, and annual time periods for 13 AWS across the RIS. The AWS are separated into three representative regions - central, coastal, and the area along the Transantarctic Mountains - in order to describe specific characteristics of sections of the RIS. The climatology describes general characteristics of the region and significant changes over time. The central AWS experiences the coldest mean temperature, and the lowest resultant wind speed. These AWSs also experience the coldest potential temperatures with a minimum of 209.3 K at Gill AWS. The AWS along the Transantarctic Mountains experiences the warmest mean temperature, the highest mean sea-level pressure, and the highest mean resultant wind speed. Finally, the coastal AWS experiences the lowest mean pressure. Climate indices (MEI, SAM, and SAO) are compared to temperature and pressure data of four of the AWS with the longest observation periods, and significant correlation is found for most AWS in sea-level pressure and temperature. This climatology study highlights characteristics that influence the climate of the RIS, and the challenges of maintaining a long-term Antarctic AWS network. Results from this effort are essential for the broader Antarctic meteorology community for future research.

Prevailing trends of climatic extremes across Indus-Delta of Sindh-Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abbas, Farhat; Rehman, Iqra; Adrees, Muhammad; Ibrahim, Muhammad; Saleem, Farhan; Ali, Shafaqat; Rizwan, Muhammad; Salik, Muhammad Raza

2018-02-01

This study examines the variability and change in the patterns of climatic extremes experienced in Indus-Delta of Sindh province of Pakistan, comprising regions of Karachi, Badin, Mohenjodaro, and Rohri. The homogenized daily minimum and maximum temperature and precipitation data for a 36-year period were used to calculate 13 and 11 indices of temperature and precipitation extremes with the help of RClimDex, a program written in the statistical software package R. A non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimates were used to determine the statistical significance and magnitude of the calculated trend. Temperatures of summer days and tropical nights increased in the region with overall significant warming trends for monthly maximum temperature as well as for warm days and nights reflecting dry conditions in the study area. The warm extremes and nighttime temperature indices showed greater trends than cold extremes and daytime indices depicting an overall warming trends in the Delta. Historic decrease in the acreage of major crops and over 33% decrease in agriculture credit for Sindh are the indicators of adverse impacts of warmer and drier weather on Sindh agriculture. Trends reported for Karachi and Badin are expected to decrease rice cultivation, hatching of fisheries, and mangroves forest surrounding these cities. Increase in the prevailing temperature trends will lead to increasingly hotter and drier summers resulting to constraints on cotton, wheat, and rice yield in Rohri and Mohenjodaro areas due to increased crop water requirements that may be met with additional groundwater pumping; nonetheless, the depleted groundwater resources would have a direct impact on the region's economy.

Dehydration and Lagrangian Cold Point in the extratropical Tropopause region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoor, P.; Wernli, H.

2012-04-01

The tropopause region of the tropics and extratropics is sensitive to modifications of the radiation budget through changes of radiatively active substances like ozone and water vapour. Both may also modify the temperature structure and the strengths of the tropopause inversion layer (TIL). Stratospheric water vapour is mainly controlled by dehydration in the tropics. Ascending air masses encounter their minimum temperature in the TTL region (tropical tropopause layer) which determines the water vapour fraction which enters the stratosphere. In the lowermost stratosphere of the extratropics however, the tropical signal might be lost due to mixing with airmasses which crossed the tropopause (TST: troposphere to stratosphere) at higher temperatures, therefore carrying more water vapour to the extratropical stratosphere. We investigate statistical 90 day backward trajectories to investigate the role of dehydration at the extratropical tropopause for the water vapour budget at the tropopause at mid and high latitudes. We use a set of 800000 trajectories for summer and winter, respectively, on the basis of ECMWF-T799L91 operational data (kinematic wind fields). We analyze the trajectories for the time and locations of their cold point and TST. Our results indicate that : 1) TST and dehydration occur at different locations 2) Dehydration occurs in general before trajectories enter the stratosphere 3) Dehydration of TST trajectories can occur in northern winter after TST in the region of high tropopauses over Siberia

Delimitation of homogeneous regions in the UNIFESP/EPM healthcare center coverage area based on sociodemographic indicators.

PubMed

Harada, K Y; Silva, J G; Schenkman, S; Hayama, E T; Santos, F R; Prado, M C; Pontes, R H

1999-01-07

The drawing up of adequate Public Health action planning to address the true needs of the population would increase the chances of effectiveness and decrease unnecessary expenses. To identify homogeneous regions in the UNIFESP/EPM healthcare center (HCC) coverage area based on sociodemographic indicators and to relate them to causes of deaths in 1995. Secondary data analysis. HCC coverage area; primary care. Sociodemographic indicators were obtained from special tabulations of the Demographic Census of 1991. Proportion of children and elderly in the population; family providers' education level (maximum: > 15 years, minimum: < 1 year) and income level (maximum: > 20 minimum wages, minimum: < 1 minimum wage); proportional mortality distribution The maximum income permitted the construction of four homogeneous regions, according to income ranking. Although the proportion of children and of elderly did not vary significantly among the regions, minimum income and education showed a statistically significant (p < 0.05) difference between the first region (least affluent) and the others. A clear trend of increasing maximum education was observed across the regions. Mortality also differed in the first region, with deaths generated by possibly preventable infections. The inequalities observed may contribute to primary health prevention.

Daily mean temperature estimate at the US SUFRAD stations as an average of the maximum and minimum temperatures

DOE PAGES

Chylek, Petr; Augustine, John A.; Klett, James D.; ...

2017-09-30

At thousands of stations worldwide, the mean daily surface air temperature is estimated as a mean of the daily maximum (T max) and minimum (T min) temperatures. In this paper, we use the NOAA Surface Radiation Budget Network (SURFRAD) of seven US stations with surface air temperature recorded each minute to assess the accuracy of the mean daily temperature estimate as an average of the daily maximum and minimum temperatures and to investigate how the accuracy of the estimate increases with an increasing number of daily temperature observations. We find the average difference between the estimate based on an averagemore » of the maximum and minimum temperatures and the average of 1440 1-min daily observations to be - 0.05 ± 1.56 °C, based on analyses of a sample of 238 days of temperature observations. Considering determination of the daily mean temperature based on 3, 4, 6, 12, or 24 daily temperature observations, we find that 2, 4, or 6 daily observations do not reduce significantly the uncertainty of the daily mean temperature. The bias reduction in a statistically significant manner (95% confidence level) occurs only with 12 or 24 daily observations. The daily mean temperature determination based on 24 hourly observations reduces the sample daily temperature uncertainty to - 0.01 ± 0.20 °C. Finally, estimating the parameters of population of all SURFRAD observations, the 95% confidence intervals based on 24 hourly measurements is from - 0.025 to 0.004 °C, compared to a confidence interval from - 0.15 to 0.05 °C based on the mean of T max and T min.« less

Daily mean temperature estimate at the US SUFRAD stations as an average of the maximum and minimum temperatures

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chylek, Petr; Augustine, John A.; Klett, James D.

At thousands of stations worldwide, the mean daily surface air temperature is estimated as a mean of the daily maximum (T max) and minimum (T min) temperatures. In this paper, we use the NOAA Surface Radiation Budget Network (SURFRAD) of seven US stations with surface air temperature recorded each minute to assess the accuracy of the mean daily temperature estimate as an average of the daily maximum and minimum temperatures and to investigate how the accuracy of the estimate increases with an increasing number of daily temperature observations. We find the average difference between the estimate based on an averagemore » of the maximum and minimum temperatures and the average of 1440 1-min daily observations to be - 0.05 ± 1.56 °C, based on analyses of a sample of 238 days of temperature observations. Considering determination of the daily mean temperature based on 3, 4, 6, 12, or 24 daily temperature observations, we find that 2, 4, or 6 daily observations do not reduce significantly the uncertainty of the daily mean temperature. The bias reduction in a statistically significant manner (95% confidence level) occurs only with 12 or 24 daily observations. The daily mean temperature determination based on 24 hourly observations reduces the sample daily temperature uncertainty to - 0.01 ± 0.20 °C. Finally, estimating the parameters of population of all SURFRAD observations, the 95% confidence intervals based on 24 hourly measurements is from - 0.025 to 0.004 °C, compared to a confidence interval from - 0.15 to 0.05 °C based on the mean of T max and T min.« less

Importance of turbulence-chemistry interactions at low temperature engine conditions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kundu, Prithwish; Ameen, Muhsin M.; Som, Sibendu

The role of turbulence-chemistry interaction in autoignition and flame stabilization is investigated for spray flames at low temperature combustion (LTC) conditions by performing high-fidelity three-dimensional computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations. A recently developed Tabulated Flamelet Model (TFM) is coupled with a large eddy simulation (LES) framework and validated across a range of Engine Combustion Network (ECN) ambient temperature conditions for n-dodecane fuel. High resolution grids with 0.0625 mm minimum cell size and 25 million total cell count are implemented using adaptive mesh refinement over the spray and combustion regions. Simulations with these grids and multiple LES realizations, with a 103more » species n-dodecane mechanism show good agreement with experimental data for all the ambient conditions investigated. This modeling approach with the computational cost advantage of tabulated chemistry is then extended towards understanding the auto-ignition and flame stabilization at an ambient temperature of 750 K. These low temperature conditions lead to substantially higher ignition delays and flame liftoff lengths, and significantly leaner combustion compared to conventional high temperature diesel combustion. These conditions also require the simulations to span significantly larger temporal and spatial dimensions thereby increasing the computational cost. The TFM approach is able to capture autoignition and flame liftoff length at the low temperature conditions. Significant differences with respect to mixing, species formation and flame stabilization are observed under low temperature compared to conventional diesel combustion. At higher ambient temperatures, formation of formaldehyde is observed in the rich region (phi > 1) followed by the formation of OH in the stoichiometric regions. Under low temperature conditions, formaldehyde is observed to form at leaner regions followed by the onset of OH formation in significantly lean regions of the flame. Qualitative differences between species formation and transient flame development for the high and low temperature conditions are presented. The two stage ignition process is further investigated by studying the species formation in mixture fraction space by solving 1D flamelet equations for different scalar dissipation rates and homogeneous reactor assumption. Results show that scalar dissipation causes these radicals to diffuse within the mixture fraction space. As a result, this significantly enhances ignition and plays a dominant role at such low temperature conditions which cannot be captured by the homogeneous reaction assumption based model.« less

Importance of turbulence-chemistry interactions at low temperature engine conditions

DOE PAGES

Kundu, Prithwish; Ameen, Muhsin M.; Som, Sibendu

2017-06-08

The role of turbulence-chemistry interaction in autoignition and flame stabilization is investigated for spray flames at low temperature combustion (LTC) conditions by performing high-fidelity three-dimensional computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations. A recently developed Tabulated Flamelet Model (TFM) is coupled with a large eddy simulation (LES) framework and validated across a range of Engine Combustion Network (ECN) ambient temperature conditions for n-dodecane fuel. High resolution grids with 0.0625 mm minimum cell size and 25 million total cell count are implemented using adaptive mesh refinement over the spray and combustion regions. Simulations with these grids and multiple LES realizations, with a 103more » species n-dodecane mechanism show good agreement with experimental data for all the ambient conditions investigated. This modeling approach with the computational cost advantage of tabulated chemistry is then extended towards understanding the auto-ignition and flame stabilization at an ambient temperature of 750 K. These low temperature conditions lead to substantially higher ignition delays and flame liftoff lengths, and significantly leaner combustion compared to conventional high temperature diesel combustion. These conditions also require the simulations to span significantly larger temporal and spatial dimensions thereby increasing the computational cost. The TFM approach is able to capture autoignition and flame liftoff length at the low temperature conditions. Significant differences with respect to mixing, species formation and flame stabilization are observed under low temperature compared to conventional diesel combustion. At higher ambient temperatures, formation of formaldehyde is observed in the rich region (phi > 1) followed by the formation of OH in the stoichiometric regions. Under low temperature conditions, formaldehyde is observed to form at leaner regions followed by the onset of OH formation in significantly lean regions of the flame. Qualitative differences between species formation and transient flame development for the high and low temperature conditions are presented. The two stage ignition process is further investigated by studying the species formation in mixture fraction space by solving 1D flamelet equations for different scalar dissipation rates and homogeneous reactor assumption. Results show that scalar dissipation causes these radicals to diffuse within the mixture fraction space. As a result, this significantly enhances ignition and plays a dominant role at such low temperature conditions which cannot be captured by the homogeneous reaction assumption based model.« less

Leaf morphology shift linked to climate change.

PubMed

Guerin, Greg R; Wen, Haixia; Lowe, Andrew J

2012-10-23

Climate change is driving adaptive shifts within species, but research on plants has been focused on phenology. Leaf morphology has demonstrated links with climate and varies within species along climate gradients. We predicted that, given within-species variation along a climate gradient, a morphological shift should have occurred over time due to climate change. We tested this prediction, taking advantage of latitudinal and altitudinal variations within the Adelaide Geosyncline region, South Australia, historical herbarium specimens (n = 255) and field sampling (n = 274). Leaf width in the study taxon, Dodonaea viscosa subsp. angustissima, was negatively correlated with latitude regionally, and leaf area was negatively correlated with altitude locally. Analysis of herbarium specimens revealed a 2 mm decrease in leaf width (total range 1-9 mm) over 127 years across the region. The results are consistent with a morphological response to contemporary climate change. We conclude that leaf width is linked to maximum temperature regionally (latitude gradient) and leaf area to minimum temperature locally (altitude gradient). These data indicate a morphological shift consistent with a direct response to climate change and could inform provenance selection for restoration with further investigation of the genetic basis and adaptive significance of observed variation.

Climate Data Homogenization and its Impact on Heatwave Changes in the Eastern Mediterranean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuglitsch, F. G.; Toreti, A.; Xoplaki, E.; Della-Marta, P. M.; Zerefos, C. S.; Turkes, M.; Luterbacher, J.

2010-12-01

Heatwaves have discernible impacts on mortality and morbidity, infrastructure, agricultural resources, the retail industry, ecosystem and tourism and consequently affect human societies. A new definition of socially relevant heatwaves is presented and applied to new data sets of high-quality homogenized daily maximum and minimum summer air temperature series from 246 stations in the eastern Mediterranean region (including Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Greece, Israel, Romania, Serbia, Slovenia, Turkey). Changes in heatwave number, length and intensity between 1960 and 2006 are quantified before and after data homogenization. Daily temperature homogeneity analyses suggest that many instrumental measurements in the 1960s are warm-biased, correcting for these biases regionally averaged heatwave trends are up to 8% higher. We find significant changes across the western Balkans, southwestern and western Turkey, and along the southern Black Sea coastline. Since the 1960s, the mean heatwave intensity, heatwave length and heatwave number across the eastern Mediterranean region have increased by a factor of 7.6 ± 1.3, 7.5 ± 1.3 and 6.2 ± 1.1, respectively. These findings suggest that the heatwave increase in this region is higher than previously reported.

Heat Wave Changes in the Eastern Mediterranean since 1960

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuglitsch, Franz G.; Toreti, Andrea; Xoplaki, Elena; Della-Marta, Paul M.; Zerefos, Christos S.; Türkes, Murat; Luterbacher, Jürg

2010-05-01

Heat waves have discernible impacts on mortality and morbidity, infrastructure, agricultural resources, the retail industry, ecosystem and tourism and consequently affect human societies. A new definition of socially relevant heat waves is presented and applied to new data sets of high-quality homogenized daily maximum and minimum summer air temperature series from 246 stations in the eastern Mediterranean region (including Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Greece, Israel, Romania, Serbia, Slovenia, Turkey). Changes in heat wave number, length and intensity between 1960 and 2006 are quantified. Daily temperature homogeneity analysis suggest that many instrumental measurements in the 1960s are warm-biased, correcting for these biases regionally averaged heat wave trends are up to 8% higher. We find significant changes across the western Balkans, southwestern and western Turkey, and along the southern Black Sea coastline. Since the 1960s, the mean heat wave intensity, heat wave length and heat wave number across the eastern Mediterranean region have increased by a factor 7.6 ±1.3, 7.5 ±1.3 and 6.2 ±1.1, respectively. These findings suggest that the heat wave increase in this region is higher than previously reported.

Future changes of temperature and heat waves in Ontario, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Zhong; Huang, Guohe; Huang, Wendy; Lin, Qianguo; Liao, Renfei; Fan, Yurui

2018-05-01

Apparent changes in the temperature patterns in recent years brought many challenges to the province of Ontario, Canada. As the need for adapting to climate change challenges increases, the development of reliable climate projections becomes a crucial task. In this study, a regional climate modeling system, Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS), is used to simulate the temperature patterns in Ontario. Three PRECIS runs with a resolution of 25 km × 25 km are carried out to simulate the present (1961-1990) temperature variations. There is a good match between the simulated and observed data, which validates the performance of PRECIS in reproducing temperature changes in Ontario. Future changes of daily maximum, mean, and minimum temperatures during the period 2071-2100 are then projected under the IPCC SRES A2 and B2 emission scenarios using PRECIS. Spatial variations of annual mean temperature, mean diurnal range, and temperature seasonality are generated. Furthermore, heat waves defined based on the exceedance of local climatology and their temporal and spatial characteristics are analyzed. The results indicate that the highest temperature and the most intensive heat waves are most likely to occur at the Toronto-Windsor corridor in Southern Ontario. The Northern Ontario, in spite of the relatively low projected temperature, would be under the risk of long-lasting heat waves, and thus needs effective measures to enhance its climate resilience in the future. This study can assist the decision makers in better understanding the future temperature changes in Ontario and provide decision support for mitigating heat-related loss.

Impact of evolving greenhouse gas forcing on the warming signal in regional climate model experiments.

PubMed

Jerez, S; López-Romero, J M; Turco, M; Jiménez-Guerrero, P; Vautard, R; Montávez, J P

2018-04-03

Variations in the atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHG) may not be included as external forcing when running regional climate models (RCMs); at least, this is a non-regulated, non-documented practice. Here we investigate the so far unexplored impact of considering the rising evolution of the CO 2 , CH 4 , and N 2 O atmospheric concentrations on near-surface air temperature (TAS) trends, for both the recent past and the near future, as simulated by a state-of-the-art RCM over Europe. The results show that the TAS trends are significantly affected by 1-2 K century -1 , which under 1.5 °C global warming translates into a non-negligible impact of up to 1 K in the regional projections of TAS, similarly affecting projections for maximum and minimum temperatures. In some cases, these differences involve a doubling signal, laying further claim to careful reconsideration of the RCM setups with regard to the inclusion of GHG concentrations as an evolving external forcing which, for the sake of research reproducibility and reliability, should be clearly documented in the literature.

40 CFR 61.356 - Recordkeeping requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... test protocol and the means by which sampling variability and analytical variability were accounted for... also establish the design minimum and average temperature in the combustion zone and the combustion... the design minimum and average temperatures across the catalyst bed inlet and outlet. (C) For a boiler...

Implications of potential future grand solar minimum for ozone layer and climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arsenovic, Pavle; Rozanov, Eugene; Anet, Julien; Stenke, Andrea; Schmutz, Werner; Peter, Thomas

2018-03-01

Continued anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are expected to cause further global warming throughout the 21st century. Understanding the role of natural forcings and their influence on global warming is thus of great interest. Here we investigate the impact of a recently proposed 21st century grand solar minimum on atmospheric chemistry and climate using the SOCOL3-MPIOM chemistry-climate model with an interactive ocean element. We examine five model simulations for the period 2000-2199, following the greenhouse gas concentration scenario RCP4.5 and a range of different solar forcings. The reference simulation is forced by perpetual repetition of solar cycle 23 until the year 2199. This reference is compared with grand solar minimum simulations, assuming a strong decline in solar activity of 3.5 and 6.5 W m-2, respectively, that last either until 2199 or recover in the 22nd century. Decreased solar activity by 6.5 W m-2 is found to yield up to a doubling of the GHG-induced stratospheric and mesospheric cooling. Under the grand solar minimum scenario, tropospheric temperatures are also projected to decrease compared to the reference. On the global scale a reduced solar forcing compensates for at most 15 % of the expected greenhouse warming at the end of the 21st and around 25 % at the end of the 22nd century. The regional effects are predicted to be significant, in particular in northern high-latitude winter. In the stratosphere, the reduction of around 15 % of incoming ultraviolet radiation leads to a decrease in ozone production by up to 8 %, which overcompensates for the anticipated ozone increase due to reduced stratospheric temperatures and an acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson circulation. This, in turn, leads to a delay in total ozone column recovery from anthropogenic halogen-induced depletion, with a global ozone recovery to the pre-ozone hole values happening only upon completion of the grand solar minimum.

On the formation of granulites

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bohlen, S.R.

1991-01-01

The tectonic settings for the formation and evolution of regional granulite terranes and the lowermost continental crust can be deduced from pressure-temperature-time (P-T-time) paths and constrained by petrological and geophysical considerations. P-T conditions deduced for regional granulites require transient, average geothermal gradients of greater than 35??C km-1, implying minimum heat flow in excess of 100 mW m-2. Such high heat flow is probably caused by magmatic heating. Tectonic settings wherein such conditions are found include convergent plate margins, continental rifts, hot spots and at the margins of large, deep-seated batholiths. Cooling paths can be constrained by solid-solid and devolatilization equilibria and geophysical modelling. -from Author

Solar cycle evolution of solar wind speed structure between 1973 and 1985 observed with the interplanetary scintillation method

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kojima, M.; Kakinuma, T.

1987-07-01

The solar cycle evolution of solar wind speed structure was studied for the years from 1973 to 1985 on a basis of interplanetary scintillation observations using a new method for mapping solar wind speed to the source surface. The major minimum-speed regions are distributed along a neutral line through the whole period of a solar cycle: when solar activity is low, they are distributed on the wavy neutral line along the solar equator; in the active phase they also tend to be distributed along the neutral line, which has a large latitudinal amplitude. The minimum-speed regions tend to be distributedmore » not only along the neutral line but also at low magnetic intensity regions and/or coronal bright regions which do not correspond to the neutral line. As the polar high-speed regions extend equatorward around the minimum phase, the latitudinal gradient of speed increases at the boundaries of the low-speed region, and the width of the low-speed region decreases. One or two years before the minimum of solar activity, two localized minimum-speed regions appear on the neutral line, and their locations are longitudinally separated by 180. copyright American Geophysical Union 1987« less

Has the Temperature Climate of the United States Become More Extreme?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stevens, L. E.; Kunkel, K.; Vose, R. S.; Knight, R. W.

2014-12-01

Extreme heat has affected parts of the United States during recent summers, particularly 2011 and 2012. Severe cold has also occurred in recent years. This has created a perception that the temperature climate of the U.S. has become more extreme. Is this the case? We address this question by computing probability distribution functions (PDFs) for each season and evaluating temporal changes for the 20th and early 21st centuries using a new gridded monthly temperature data set. We examine changes in the mean, width, and shape of the PDFs for seven U.S. regions, as defined in the third National Climate Assessment. During the past 2-3 decades, there has been a shift toward more frequent very warm months, but this has been accompanied by a decrease in the occurrence of very cold months. Thus, overall we determine that the temperature climate of the U.S. has not become more extreme. The 1930s were an earlier period of frequent very warm months, but this was primarily a result of very warm daytime temperatures, while the occurrence of months with very high nighttime temperatures was not unusually large during that period. There are important regional variations in these results. In particular, the shift to more frequent very warm months is not predominant in the southeast U.S. annually or in parts of the central U.S. in the summer. This lack of warming is a feature of daytime maximum temperature, not nighttime minimum temperature.

Thermal properties of spinel based solid solutions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Hara, Kelley Rae

Solid solution formation in spinel based systems proved to be a viable approach to decreasing thermal conductivity. Samples with systematically varied additions of MgGa2O4 to MgAl2O 4 were prepared and thermal diffusivity was measured using the laser flash technique. Additionally, heat capacity was measured using differential scanning calorimetry and modeled for the MgAl2O4-MgGa 2O4 system. At 200°C thermal conductivity decreased 24% with a 5 mol% addition of MgGa2O4 to the system. The solid solution continued to decrease the thermal conductivity by 13% up to 1000°C with 5 mol% addition. The decrease in thermal conductivity ultimately resulted in a decrease in heat flux when applied to a theoretical furnace lining, which could lead to energy savings in industrial settings. The MgAl2O4-Al2O3 phase equilibria was investigated to fully understand the system and the thermal properties at elevated temperatures. The solvus line between MgAl2O4 and Al2O3 has been defined at 79.6 wt% Al 2O3 at 1500°C, 83.0 wt% Al2O4 at 1600°C, and 86.5 wt% Al2O3 at 1700°C. A metastable region has been identified at temperatures up to 1700°C which could have significant implications for material processing and properties. The spinel solid solution region has been extended to form an infinite solid solution with Al2O3 at elevated temperatures. A minimum in melting at 1975°C and a chemistry of 96 wt% Al2O3 rather than a eutectic is present. Thermal properties in the MgAl2O4-Al2O 3 system were investigated in both the single phase solid solution region and the two phase region. The thermal diffusivity decreased through the MgAl 2O4 solid solution region and was at a minimum through the entire metastable (nucleation and growth) region. As Al2O 3 became present as a second phase the thermal diffusivity increased with Al2O3 content. There was an 11.7% increase in thermal diffusivity with a change in overall chemistry of 85.20 wt% Al2O 3 to 87.71 wt% Al2O3, due to the drastic change in final chemistry (38.3 wt% Al20 3) caused by the nucleation and growth region in the system.

Radiation experiments on Cosmos 2044: K-7-41, parts A, B, C, D, E

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Frank, A. L.; Benton, E. V.; Benton, E. R.; Dudkin, V. E.; Marenny, A. M.

1990-01-01

The Cosmos 2044 biosatellite mission offered the opportunity for radiation measurements under conditions which are seldom available (an inclination of 82.3 deg and attitude of 294 x 216 km). Measurements were made on the outside of the spacecraft under near-zero shielding conditions. Also, this mission was the first in which active temperature recorders (the ATR-4) were flown to record the temperature profiles of detector stacks. Measurements made on this mission provide a comparison and test for modeling of depth doses and LET spectra for orbital parameters previously unavailable. Tissue absorbed doses from 3480 rad (252 rad/d) down to 0.115 rad (8.33 mrad/d) were measured at different depths (0.0146 and 3.20 g/sq cm, respectively) with averaged TLD readings. The LET spectra yielded maximum and minimum values of integral flux of 27.3 x 10(exp -4) and 3.05 x 10(exp -4)/sq cm/s/sr, of dose rate of 7.01 and 1.20 mrad/d, and of dose equivalent rate of 53.8 and 11.6 mrem/d, for LET(sub infinity)-H2O is greater than or equal to 4 keV/micron. Neutron measurements yielded 0.018 mrem/d in the thermal region, 0.25 mrem/d in the resonance region and 3.3 mrem/d in the high energy region. The TLD depth dose and LET spectra were compared with calculations from the modeling codes. The agreement is good but some further refinements are in order. In comparing measurements on Cosmos 2044 with those from previous Cosmos missions (orbital inclinations of 62.8 deg) there is a greater spread (maximum to minimum) in depth doses and an increased contribution from GCRs, and higher LET particles, in the heavy particle fluxes.

Experiment K-7-41: Radiation Experiments on Cosmos 2044

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Benton, E. V.; Benton, E. R.; Frank, A. L.; Dudkin, V. E.; Marenny, A. M.; Kovalev, E. E.

1994-01-01

The Cosmos 2044 biosatellite mission offered the opportunity for radiation measurements under conditions which are seldom available (an inclination of 82.3 degrees and altitude of 294 x 216 km). Measurements were made on the outside of the spacecraft under near-zero shielding conditions. Also, this mission was the first in which active temperature recorders (the ATR-4) were flown to record the temperature profiles of detector stacks. Measurements made on this mission provide a comparison and test for modeling of depth doses and LET spectra for orbital parameters previously unavailable. Tissue absorbed doses from 3480 rad (252 rad/d) down to 0.115 rad (8.33 mrad/d) were measured at different depths (0.0146 and 3.20 g/sq. cm, respectively) with averaged TLD readings. The LET spectra yielded maximum and minimum values of integral flux of 27.3 x 10-4 and 3.05 x 10(exp -4) cm(exp -2).s(exp -1).sr(exp -4) of dose rate of 7.01 and 1.20 mrad/d, and of dose equivalent rate of 53.8 and 11.6 mrem/d, for LET(infinity).H2O is greater than or equal to 4 keV/micro-m. Neutron measurements yielded 0.018 mremld in the thermal region, 0.25 mrem/d in the resonance region and 3.3 mrem/d in the high energy region. The TLD depth dose and LET spectra have been compared with calculations from the modeling codes. The agreement is good but some further refinements are in order. In comparing measurements on Cosmos 2044 with those from previous Cosmos missions (orbital inclinations of 62.8 degrees) there is a greater spread (maximum to minimum) in depth doses and an increased contribution from GCR's, and higher LET particles, in the heavy particle fluxes.

Covariability of seasonal temperature and precipitation over the Iberian Peninsula in high-resolution regional climate simulations (1001-2099)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernández-Montes, S.; Gómez-Navarro, J. J.; Rodrigo, F. S.; García-Valero, J. A.; Montávez, J. P.

2017-04-01

Precipitation and surface temperature are interdependent variables, both as a response to atmospheric dynamics and due to intrinsic thermodynamic relationships and feedbacks between them. This study analyzes the covariability of seasonal temperature (T) and precipitation (P) across the Iberian Peninsula (IP) using regional climate paleosimulations for the period 1001-1990, driven by reconstructions of external forcings. Future climate (1990-2099) was simulated according to SRES scenarios A2 and B2. These simulations enable exploring, at high spatial resolution, robust and physically consistent relationships. In winter, positive P-T correlations dominate west-central IP (Pearson correlation coefficient ρ = + 0.43, for 1001-1990), due to prevalent cold-dry and warm-wet conditions, while this relationship weakens and become negative towards mountainous, northern and eastern regions. In autumn, negative correlations appear in similar regions as in winter, whereas for summer they extend also to the N/NW of the IP. In spring, the whole IP depicts significant negative correlations, strongest for eastern regions (ρ = - 0.51). This is due to prevalent frequency of warm-dry and cold-wet modes in these regions and seasons. At the temporal scale, regional correlation series between seasonal anomalies of temperature and precipitation (assessed in 31 years running windows in 1001-1990) show very large multidecadal variability. For winter and spring, periodicities of about 50-60 years arise. The frequency of warm-dry and cold-wet modes appears correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), explaining mainly co-variability changes in spring. For winter and some regions in autumn, maximum and minimum P-T correlations appear in periods with enhanced meridional or easterly circulation (low or high pressure anomalies in the Mediterranean and Europe). In spring and summer, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation shows some fingerprint on the frequency of warm/cold modes. For future scenarios, an intensification of the negative P-T relationship is generally found, as a result of an increased frequency of the warm-dry mode.

Spatial and temporal evolution of climatic factors and its impacts on potential evapotranspiration in Loess Plateau of Northern Shaanxi, China.

PubMed

Li, C; Wu, P T; Li, X L; Zhou, T W; Sun, S K; Wang, Y B; Luan, X B; Yu, X

2017-07-01

Agriculture is very sensitive to climate change, and correct forecasting of climate change is a great help to accurate allocation of irrigation water. The use of irrigation water is influenced by crop water demand and precipitation. Potential evapotranspiration (ET 0 ) is a measure of the ability of the atmosphere to remove water from the surface through the processes of evaporation and transpiration, assuming no control on water supply. It plays an important role in assessing crop water requirements, regional dry-wet conditions, and other factors of water resource management. This study analyzed the spatial and temporal evolution processes and characteristics of major meteorological parameters at 10 stations in the Loess Plateau of northern Shaanxi (LPNS). By using the Mann-Kendall trend test with trend-free pre-whitening and the ArcGIS platform, the potential evapotranspiration of each station was quantified by using the Penman-Monteith equation, and the effects of climatic factors on potential evapotranspiration were assessed by analyzing the contribution rate and sensitivity of the climatic factors. The results showed that the climate in LPNS has become warmer and drier. In terms of the sensitivity of ET 0 to the variation of each climatic factor in LPNS, relative humidity (0.65) had the highest sensitivity, followed by daily maximum temperature, wind speed, sunshine hours, and daily minimum temperature (-0.05). In terms of the contribution rate of each factor to ET 0 , daily maximum temperature (5.16%) had the highest value, followed by daily minimum temperature, sunshine hours, relative humidity, and wind speed (1.14%). This study provides a reference for the management of agricultural water resources and for countermeasures to climate change. According to the climate change and the characteristics of the study area, farmers in the region should increase irrigation to guarantee crop water demand. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Effect of Structural Parameters on the Combustion Performance of Platelet Engines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, Yin; Liu, Weiqiang

2017-12-01

Numerical simulation was adopted to determine its flow and combustion characteristics by using gaseous methane and oxygen as the main propellants, the effects of nozzle space and expanding angle are examined for the single element splash platelet injector. Navier-Stokes (N-S) equations were solved for the gas-gas flow field with a reduced mechanism involving 9 species and 1 reaction. Results indicated that large corner recirculation zones are produced in the combustor head. This phenomenon consequently enhances mixing and stabilizes combustion, but non-uniformity in temperature contour is observed in the combustor head. Recirculation zone decreases as nozzle space increases, which induces the decrease of maximum temperature and high temperature regions, but it has little influence on the combustion efficiency and combustion length. The combustion length and maximum temperature decrease initially and then increase as expanding angle increases. Conversely, a D value of 2.4 mm and γ value of 60° are selected for the future works because of the shortest combustion length and minimum temperature of the injector faceplate.

Whistler waves with electron temperature anisotropy and non-Maxwellian distribution functions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malik, M. Usman; Masood, W.; Qureshi, M. N. S.; Mirza, Arshad M.

2018-05-01

The previous works on whistler waves with electron temperature anisotropy narrated the dependence on plasma parameters, however, they did not explore the reasons behind the observed differences. A comparative analysis of the whistler waves with different electron distributions has not been made to date. This paper attempts to address both these issues in detail by making a detailed comparison of the dispersion relations and growth rates of whistler waves with electron temperature anisotropy for Maxwellian, Cairns, kappa and generalized (r, q) distributions by varying the key plasma parameters for the problem under consideration. It has been found that the growth rate of whistler instability is maximum for flat-topped distribution whereas it is minimum for the Maxwellian distribution. This work not only summarizes and complements the previous work done on the whistler waves with electron temperature anisotropy but also provides a general framework to understand the linear propagation of whistler waves with electron temperature anisotropy that is applicable in all regions of space plasmas where the satellite missions have indicated their presence.

Effect of wall to total temperature ratio variation on heat transfer to the leeside of a space shuttle configuration at M equals 10.3

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dunavant, J. C.

1974-01-01

An experimental study has been conducted of the influence of wall to total temperature ratio on the heat transfer to the leeside of a 040A space shuttle configuration. The heat transfer tests were made at a Mach number of 10 and a Reynolds number of one million per foot for angles of attack from 0 deg to 30 deg. Range of wall to total temperature ratio was from 0.16 to 0.43. Where the heat transfer was relatively high and the laminar boundary layer attached, the local heat transfer decreased by about 20 percent as the wall to total temperature ratio was increased from the minimum to the maximum test value. On regions of separated flow and vortex reattachment, very low heating rates were measured at some conditions and indicate significant changes are occurring in the leeside flow field. No single trend of heat transfer variation with wall to total temperature ratio could be observed.

Preliminary infrared radiometry of the night side of mercury from mariner 10.

PubMed

Chase, S C; Miner, E D; Morrison, D; Münch, G; Neugebauer, G; Schroeder, M

1974-07-12

The infrared radiometer on Mariner 10 measured the thermal emission from the planet with a spatial resolution element as small as 40 kilometers in a broad wavelength band centered at 45 micrometers. The minimum brightness temperature (near local midnight) in these near-equatorial scans was 100 degrees K. Along the track observed, the temperature declined steadily from local sunset to near midnight, behaving as would be expected for a homogeneous, porous material with a thermal inertia of 0.0017 cal cm(-2) sec(-(1/2)) degrees K(-1), a value only slightly larger than that of the moon. From near midnight to dawn, however, the temperature fluctuated over a range of about 10 degrees K, implying the presence of regions having thermal inertia as high as 0.003 cal cm(-2) sec-(1/2) degrees K(-1).

Sensitivity of June Near-Surface Temperatures and Precipitation in the Eastern United States to Historical Land Cover Changes Since European Settlement

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Strack, John E.; Pielke, Roger A.; Steyaert, Louis T.; Knox, Robert G.

2008-01-01

Land cover changes alter the near surface weather and climate. Changes in land surface properties such as albedo, roughness length, stomatal resistance, and leaf area index alter the surface energy balance, leading to differences in near surface temperatures. This study utilized a newly developed land cover data set for the eastern United States to examine the influence of historical land cover change on June temperatures and precipitation. The new data set contains representations of the land cover and associated biophysical parameters for 1650, 1850, 1920, and 1992, capturing the clearing of the forest and the expansion of agriculture over the eastern United States from 1650 to the early twentieth century and the subsequent forest regrowth. The data set also includes the inferred distribution of potentially water-saturated soils at each time slice for use in the sensitivity tests. The Regional Atmospheric Modeling System, equipped with the Land Ecosystem-Atmosphere Feedback (LEAF-2) land surface parameterization, was used to simulate the weather of June 1996 using the 1992, 1920, 1850, and 1650 land cover representations. The results suggest that changes in surface roughness and stomatal resistance have caused present-day maximum and minimum temperatures in the eastern United States to warm by about 0.3 C and 0.4 C, respectively, when compared to values in 1650. In contrast, the maximum temperatures have remained about the same, while the minimums have cooled by about 0.1 C when compared to 1920. Little change in precipitation was found.

Sensitivity of June near‐surface temperatures and precipitation in the eastern United States to historical land cover changes since European settlement

USGS Publications Warehouse

Strack, John E.; Pielke, Roger A.; Steyaert, Louis T.; Knox, Robert G.

2008-01-01

Land cover changes alter the near surface weather and climate. Changes in land surface properties such as albedo, roughness length, stomatal resistance, and leaf area index alter the surface energy balance, leading to differences in near surface temperatures. This study utilized a newly developed land cover data set for the eastern United States to examine the influence of historical land cover change on June temperatures and precipitation. The new data set contains representations of the land cover and associated biophysical parameters for 1650, 1850, 1920, and 1992, capturing the clearing of the forest and the expansion of agriculture over the eastern United States from 1650 to the early twentieth century and the subsequent forest regrowth. The data set also includes the inferred distribution of potentially water‐saturated soils at each time slice for use in the sensitivity tests. The Regional Atmospheric Modeling System, equipped with the Land Ecosystem‐Atmosphere Feedback (LEAF‐2) land surface parameterization, was used to simulate the weather of June 1996 using the 1992, 1920, 1850, and 1650 land cover representations. The results suggest that changes in surface roughness and stomatal resistance have caused present‐day maximum and minimum temperatures in the eastern United States to warm by about 0.3°C and 0.4°C, respectively, when compared to values in 1650. In contrast, the maximum temperatures have remained about the same, while the minimums have cooled by about 0.1°C when compared to 1920. Little change in precipitation was found.

Deep Bering Sea Circulation and Variability, 2001-2016, From Argo Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, Gregory C.; Stabeno, Phyllis J.

2017-12-01

The mean structure, seasonal cycle, and interannual variability of temperature and salinity are analyzed in the deep Bering Sea basin using Argo profile data collected from 2001 to 2016. Gyre transports are estimated using geostrophic stream function maps of Argo profile data referenced to a 1,000 dbar nondivergent absolute velocity stream function mapped from Argo parking pressure displacement data. Relatively warm and salty water from the North Pacific enters the basin through the Near Strait and passages between Aleutian Islands to the east. This water then flows in a cyclonic (counterclockwise) direction around the region, cooling (and freshening) along its path. Aleutian North Slope Current transports from 0 to 1,890 dbar are estimated at 3-6 Sverdrups (1 Sv = 106 m3 s-1) eastward, feeding into the northwestward Bering Slope Current with transports of mostly 5-6 Sv. The Kamchatka Current has transports of ˜6 Sv north of Shirshov Ridge, increasing to 14-16 Sv south of the ridge, where it is augmented by westward flow from Near Strait. Temperature exhibits strong interannual variations in the upper ocean, with warm periods in 2004-2005 and 2015-2016, and cold periods around 2009 and 2012. In contrast, upper ocean salinity generally decreases from 2001 to 2016. As a result of this salinity decrease, the density of the subsurface temperature minimum decreased over this time period, despite more interannual variability in the minimum temperature value. The subsurface temperature maximum also exhibits interannual variability, but with values generally warmer than those previously reported for the 1970s and 1980s.

The use of multiobjective calibration and regional sensitivity analysis in simulating hyporheic exchange

USGS Publications Warehouse

Naranjo, Ramon C.; Niswonger, Richard G.; Stone, Mark; Davis, Clinton; McKay, Alan

2012-01-01

We describe an approach for calibrating a two-dimensional (2-D) flow model of hyporheic exchange using observations of temperature and pressure to estimate hydraulic and thermal properties. A longitudinal 2-D heat and flow model was constructed for a riffle-pool sequence to simulate flow paths and flux rates for variable discharge conditions. A uniform random sampling approach was used to examine the solution space and identify optimal values at local and regional scales. We used a regional sensitivity analysis to examine the effects of parameter correlation and nonuniqueness commonly encountered in multidimensional modeling. The results from this study demonstrate the ability to estimate hydraulic and thermal parameters using measurements of temperature and pressure to simulate exchange and flow paths. Examination of the local parameter space provides the potential for refinement of zones that are used to represent sediment heterogeneity within the model. The results indicate vertical hydraulic conductivity was not identifiable solely using pressure observations; however, a distinct minimum was identified using temperature observations. The measured temperature and pressure and estimated vertical hydraulic conductivity values indicate the presence of a discontinuous low-permeability deposit that limits the vertical penetration of seepage beneath the riffle, whereas there is a much greater exchange where the low-permeability deposit is absent. Using both temperature and pressure to constrain the parameter estimation process provides the lowest overall root-mean-square error as compared to using solely temperature or pressure observations. This study demonstrates the benefits of combining continuous temperature and pressure for simulating hyporheic exchange and flow in a riffle-pool sequence. Copyright 2012 by the American Geophysical Union.

Downscaling of RCM outputs for representative catchments in the Mediterranean region, for the 1951-2100 time-frame

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deidda, Roberto; Marrocu, Marino; Pusceddu, Gabriella; Langousis, Andreas; Mascaro, Giuseppe; Caroletti, Giulio

2013-04-01

Within the activities of the EU FP7 CLIMB project (www.climb-fp7.eu), we developed downscaling procedures to reliably assess climate forcing at hydrologically relevant scales, and applied them to six representative hydrological basins located in the Mediterranean region: Riu Mannu and Noce in Italy, Chiba in Tunisia, Kocaeli in Turkey, Thau in France, and Gaza in Palestine. As a first step towards this aim, we used daily precipitation and temperature data from the gridded E-OBS project (www.ecad.eu/dailydata), as reference fields, to rank 14 Regional Climate Model (RCM) outputs from the ENSEMBLES project (http://ensembles-eu.metoffice.com). The four best performing model outputs were selected, with the additional constraint of maintaining 2 outputs obtained from running different RCMs driven by the same GCM, and 2 runs from the same RCM driven by different GCMs. For these four RCM-GCM model combinations, a set of downscaling techniques were developed and applied, for the period 1951-2100, to variables used in hydrological modeling (i.e. precipitation; mean, maximum and minimum daily temperatures; direct solar radiation, relative humidity, magnitude and direction of surface winds). The quality of the final products is discussed, together with the results obtained after applying a bias reduction procedure to daily temperature and precipitation fields.

Tracking of climatic niche boundaries under recent climate change.

PubMed

La Sorte, Frank A; Jetz, Walter

2012-07-01

1. Global climate has changed significantly during the past 30 years and especially in northern temperate regions which have experienced poleward shifts in temperature regimes. While there is evidence that some species have responded by moving their distributions to higher latitudes, the efficiency of this response in tracking species' climatic niche boundaries over time has yet to be addressed. 2. Here, we provide a continental assessment of the temporal structure of species responses to recent spatial shifts in climatic conditions. We examined geographic associations with minimum winter temperature for 59 species of winter avifauna at 476 Christmas Bird Count circles in North America from 1975 to 2009 under three sampling schemes that account for spatial and temporal sampling effects. 3. Minimum winter temperature associated with species occurrences showed an overall increase with a weakening trend after 1998. Species displayed highly variable responses that, on average and across sampling schemes, contained a strong lag effect that weakened in strength over time. In general, the conservation of minimum winter temperature was relevant when all species were considered together but only after an initial lag period (c. 35 years) was overcome. The delayed niche tracking observed at the combined species level was likely supported by the post1998 lull in the warming trend. 4. There are limited geographic and ecological explanations for the observed variability, suggesting that the efficiency of species' responses under climate change is likely to be highly idiosyncratic and difficult to predict. This outcome is likely to be even more pronounced and time lags more persistent for less vagile taxa, particularly during the periods of consistent or accelerating warming. Current modelling efforts and conservation strategies need to better appreciate the variation, strength and duration of lag effects and their association with climatic variability. Conservation strategies in particular will benefit through identifying and maintaining dispersal corridors that accommodate diverging dispersal strategies and timetables. © 2012 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2012 British Ecological Society.

Climate influence on Baltic cod, sprat, and herring stock-recruitment relationships

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Margonski, Piotr; Hansson, Sture; Tomczak, Maciej T.; Grzebielec, Ryszard

2010-10-01

A wide range of possible recruitment drivers were tested for key exploited fish species in the Baltic Sea Regional Advisory Council (RAC) area: Eastern Baltic Cod, Central Baltic Herring, Gulf of Riga Herring, and sprat. For each of the stocks, two hypotheses were tested: (i) recruitment is significantly related to spawning stock biomass, climatic forcing, and feeding conditions and (ii) by acknowledging these drivers, management decisions can be improved. Climate impact expressed by climatic indices or changes in water temperature was included in all the final models. Recruitment of the herring stock appeared to be influenced by different factors: the spawning stock biomass, winter Baltic Sea Index prior to spawning, and potentially the November-December sea surface temperature during the winter after spawning were important to Gulf of Riga Herring, while the final models for Central Baltic Herring included spawning stock biomass and August sea surface temperature. Recruitment of sprat appeared to be influenced by July-August temperature, but was independent of the spawning biomass when SSB > 200,000 tons. Recruitment of Eastern Baltic Cod was significantly related to spawning stock biomass, the winter North Atlantic Oscillation index, and the reproductive volume in the Gotland Basin in May. All the models including extrinsic factors significantly improved prediction ability as compared to traditional models, which account for impacts of the spawning stock biomass alone. Based on the final models the minimum spawning stock biomass to derive the associated minimum recruitment under average environmental conditions was calculated for each stock. Using uncertainty analyses, the spawning stock biomass required to produce associated minimum recruitment was presented with different probabilities considering the influence of the extrinsic drivers. This tool allows for recruitment to be predicted with a required probability, that is, higher than the average 50% estimated from the models. Further, this approach considers unfavorable environmental conditions which mean that a higher spawning stock biomass is needed to maintain recruitment at a required level.

Physiological minimum temperatures for root growth in seven common European broad-leaved tree species.

PubMed

Schenker, Gabriela; Lenz, Armando; Körner, Christian; Hoch, Günter

2014-03-01

Temperature is the most important factor driving the cold edge distribution limit of temperate trees. Here, we identified the minimum temperatures for root growth in seven broad-leaved tree species, compared them with the species' natural elevational limits and identified morphological changes in roots produced near their physiological cold limit. Seedlings were exposed to a vertical soil-temperature gradient from 20 to 2 °C along the rooting zone for 18 weeks. In all species, the bulk of roots was produced at temperatures above 5 °C. However, the absolute minimum temperatures for root growth differed among species between 2.3 and 4.2 °C, with those species that reach their natural distribution limits at higher elevations also tending to have lower thermal limits for root tissue formation. In all investigated species, the roots produced at temperatures close to the thermal limit were pale, thick, unbranched and of reduced mechanical strength. Across species, the specific root length (m g(-1) root) was reduced by, on average, 60% at temperatures below 7 °C. A significant correlation of minimum temperatures for root growth with the natural high elevation limits of the investigated species indicates species-specific thermal requirements for basic physiological processes. Although these limits are not necessarily directly causative for the upper distribution limit of a species, they seem to belong to a syndrome of adaptive processes for life at low temperatures. The anatomical changes at the cold limit likely hint at the mechanisms impeding meristematic activity at low temperatures.

Application of genetic algorithms in nonlinear heat conduction problems.

PubMed

Kadri, Muhammad Bilal; Khan, Waqar A

2014-01-01

Genetic algorithms are employed to optimize dimensionless temperature in nonlinear heat conduction problems. Three common geometries are selected for the analysis and the concept of minimum entropy generation is used to determine the optimum temperatures under the same constraints. The thermal conductivity is assumed to vary linearly with temperature while internal heat generation is assumed to be uniform. The dimensionless governing equations are obtained for each selected geometry and the dimensionless temperature distributions are obtained using MATLAB. It is observed that GA gives the minimum dimensionless temperature in each selected geometry.

Experimental study on the minimum ignition temperature of coal dust clouds in oxy-fuel combustion atmospheres.

PubMed

Wu, Dejian; Norman, Frederik; Verplaetsen, Filip; Van den Bulck, Eric

2016-04-15

BAM furnace apparatus tests were conducted to investigate the minimum ignition temperature of coal dusts (MITC) in O2/CO2 atmospheres with an O2 mole fraction from 20 to 50%. Three coal dusts: Indonesian Sebuku coal, Pittsburgh No.8 coal and South African coal were tested. Experimental results showed that the dust explosion risk increases significantly with increasing O2 mole fraction by reducing the minimum ignition temperature for the three tested coal dust clouds dramatically (even by 100°C). Compared with conventional combustion, the inhibiting effect of CO2 was found to be comparatively large in dust clouds, particularly for the coal dusts with high volatile content. The retardation effect of the moisture content on the ignition of dust clouds was also found to be pronounced. In addition, a modified steady-state mathematical model based on heterogeneous reaction was proposed to interpret the observed experimental phenomena and to estimate the ignition mechanism of coal dust clouds under minimum ignition temperature conditions. The analysis revealed that heterogeneous ignition dominates the ignition mechanism for sub-/bituminous coal dusts under minimum ignition temperature conditions, but the decrease of coal maturity facilitates homogeneous ignition. These results improve our understanding of the ignition behaviour and the explosion risk of coal dust clouds in oxy-fuel combustion atmospheres. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Investigation of the local structure variance of water molecules in laser-induced thermal desorption process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ju, Shin-Pon; Weng, Cheng-I.

2004-05-01

This paper presents the use of molecular dynamics simulation in the study of laser-induced thermal desorption (LITD) of water molecules adjacent to a laser-heated Au substrate. The local structure of the water molecules is investigated by considering the densities of the oxygen and hydrogen atoms, the average number of neighbors, nNN, and the average number of H-bonds, nHB. At an equilibrium temperature of 300 K, the simulation results show that three adsorption water layers are formed in the immediate vicinity of the Au surface, and that each four-fold hollow site on the uppermost Au(0 0 1) surface is occupied by a single water molecule. Following laser-induced heating of the Au substrate with a sub-picosecond laser pulse of 350 fs, the substrate temperature increases to 1000 K. This causes a gradual heating of the adjacent water film, which is accompanied by a decrease in the values of nNN and nHB. Hence, it can be concluded that an increase in the water film temperature destroys the hydrogen-bonding network throughout the water film. Although the maximum local temperature of the water film occurs in the region immediately adjacent to the Au substrate, it is determined that the attractive energy between the Au atoms and the water molecules in this region causes the water molecules to aggregate together to form three-dimensional water clusters. Furthermore, this energy prevents the hydrogen bonds in this region from breaking apart as violently as those within the phase explosion region. Finally, it is observed that the phase explosion phenomenon occurs in the region of the water film where the values of nNN and nHB are at a minimum.

Cross-correlation map analyses show weather variation influences on mosquito abundance patterns in Saginaw County, Michigan, 1989-2005.

PubMed

Chuang, Ting-Wu; Ionides, Edward L; Knepper, Randall G; Stanuszek, William W; Walker, Edward D; Wilson, Mark L

2012-07-01

Weather is important determinant of mosquito abundance that, in turn, influences vectorborne disease dynamics. In temperate regions, transmission generally is seasonal as mosquito abundance and behavior varies with temperature, precipitation, and other meteorological factors. We investigated how such factors affected species-specific mosquito abundance patterns in Saginaw County, MI, during a 17-yr period. Systematic sampling was undertaken at 22 trapping sites from May to September, during 1989-2005, for 19,228 trap-nights and 300,770 mosquitoes in total. Aedes vexans (Meigen), Culex pipiens L. and Culex restuans Theobald, the most abundant species, were analyzed. Weather data included local daily maximum temperature, minimum temperature, total precipitation, and average relative humidity. In addition to standard statistical methods, cross-correlation mapping was used to evaluate temporal associations with various lag periods between weather variables and species-specific mosquito abundances. Overall, the average number of mosquitoes was 4.90 per trap-night for Ae. vexans, 2.12 for Cx. pipiens, and 1.23 for Cx. restuans. Statistical analysis of the considerable temporal variability in species-specific abundances indicated that precipitation and relative humidity 1 wk prior were significantly positively associated with Ae. vexans, whereas elevated maximum temperature had a negative effect during summer. Cx. pipiens abundance was positively influenced by the preceding minimum temperature in the early season but negatively associated with precipitation during summer and with maximum temperature in July and August. Cx. restuans showed the least weather association, with only relative humidity 2-24 d prior being linked positively during late spring-early summer. The recently developed analytical method applied in this study could enhance our understanding of the influences of weather variability on mosquito population dynamics.

Redox Effects on Organic Matter Storage in Coastal Sediments During the Holocene: A Biomarker/Proxy Perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bianchi, Thomas S.; Schreiner, Kathryn M.; Smith, Richard W.; Burdige, David J.; Woodard, Stella; Conley, Daniel J.

2016-06-01

Coastal margins play a significant role in the burial of organic matter (OM) on Earth. These margins vary considerably with respect to their efficiency in OM burial and to the amounts and periodicity of their OM delivery, depending in large part on whether they are passive or active margins. In the context of global warming, these coastal regions are expected to experience higher water temperatures, changes in riverine inputs of OM, and sea level rise. Low-oxygen conditions continue to expand around the globe in estuarine regions (i.e., hypoxic zones) and shelf regions (i.e., oxygen minimum zones), which will impact the amounts and sources of OM stored in these regions. In this review, we explore how these changes are impacting the storage of OM and the preservation of sedimentary biomarkers, used as proxies to reconstruct environmental change, in coastal margins.

Comparison of photospheric electric current and ultraviolet and x-ray emission in a solar active region

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Haisch, B.M.; Bruner, M.E.; Hagyard, M.J.

This paper presents an extensive set of coordinated observations of a solar active region, taking into account spectroheliograms obtained with the aid of the Solar Maximum Mission (SMM) Ultraviolet Spectrometer Polarimeter (UVSP) instrument, SMM soft x-ray polychromator (XRP) raster maps, and high spatial resolution ultraviolet images of the sun in Lyman-alpha and in the 1600 A continuum. These data span together the upper solar atmosphere from the temperature minimum to the corona. The data are compared to maps of the inferred photospheric electric current derived from the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) vector magnetograph observations. Some empirical correlation is foundmore » between regions of inferred electric current density and the brightest features in the ultraviolet continuum and to a lesser extent those seen in Lyman-alpha within an active region. 29 references.« less

Relation between inflammables and ignition sources in aircraft environments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Scull, Wilfred E

1951-01-01

A literature survey was conducted to determine the relation between aircraft ignition sources and inflammables. Available literature applicable to the problem of aircraft fire hazards is analyzed and discussed. Data pertaining to the effect of many variables on ignition temperatures, minimum ignition pressures, minimum spark-ignition energies of inflammables, quenching distances of electrode configurations, and size of openings through which flame will not propagate are presented and discussed. Ignition temperatures and limits of inflammability of gasoline in air in different test environments, and the minimum ignition pressures and minimum size of opening for flame propagation in gasoline-air mixtures are included; inerting of gasoline-air mixtures is discussed.

Mechanisms of microgravity flame spread over a thin solid fuel - Oxygen and opposed flow effects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Olson, S. L.

1991-01-01

Microgravity tests varying oxygen concentration and forced flow velocity have examined the importance of transport processes on flame spread over very thin solid fuels. Flame spread rates, solid phase temperature profiles and flame appearance for these tests are measured. A flame spread map is presented which indicates three distinct regions where different mechanisms control the flame spread process. In the near-quenching region (very low characteristic relative velocities) a new controlling mechanism for flame spread - oxidizer transport-limited chemical reaction - is proposed. In the near-limit, blowoff region, high opposed flow velocities impose residence time limitations on the flame spread process. A critical characteristic relative velocity line between the two near-limit regions defines conditions which result in maximum flammability both in terms of a peak flame spread rate and minimum oxygen concentration for steady burning. In the third region, away from both near-limit regions, the flame spread behavior, which can accurately be described by a thermal theory, is controlled by gas-phase conduction.

Supporting Climatic Trends of Corn and Soybean Production in the USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mishra, V.; Cherkauer, K. A.; Verdin, J. P.

2010-12-01

The United States of America (USA) is a major source of corn and soybeans, producing about 39 percent of the world’s corn and 50 percent of world’s soybean supply. The north central states, including parts of the Midwestern US and the Great Plains form what is commonly described as the “Corn Belt” and consist of the most productive grain growing region in the United States. Changes in climate, including precipitation and temperature, are being observed throughout the world, and the Corn Belt region of the US is not immune posing a potential threat to global food security. We conducted a retrospective analysis of observed climate variables and crop production statistics to evaluate if observed climatic trends are having a positive or negative effect on corn and soybean production in the US. We selected climate indices based on gridded daily precipitation, maximum and minimum air temperature data from the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) for the period of 1920-2009 and for 13 states in the Corn Belt region. We used the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) for different periods overlapping the important seasons for crop growths, such as the planting (April-May), grain-filling (June-August), and harvesting (September -October) seasons. We estimated the seasonal average of maximum and minimum daily temperatures to identify the historic trends and variability in air temperature during the key crop-growth seasons. Extreme warm temperatures can affect crop growth and yields adversely; therefore, cumulative maximum air temperature above the 90th percentiles (e.g. Cumulative Heat Index) was estimated for each growing period. We evaluated historic trends and variability of areal extents of severe or extreme droughts along with the areal extents facing the high cumulative heat stress. Our results showed that climatic extremes (e.g. droughts and heat stress) that occurred during the period of June - August (JJA), affected the yields of corn and soybeans most severely. High moisture and low heat stress during the JJA period favored crop yields, while low moisture and high heat conditions during the planting season (April-May) increased yields. Results also indicated that this part of the US is trending towards lower heat stress and drought extents, and higher moisture conditions during the JJA period. Therefore, in future, if the present trends persist, we expect the climate will more supportive of increased corn and soybean yields.

Effects of tidal current phase at the junction of two straits

USGS Publications Warehouse

Warner, J.; Schoellhamer, D.; Burau, J.; Schladow, G.

2002-01-01

Estuaries typically have a monotonic increase in salinity from freshwater at the head of the estuary to ocean water at the mouth, creating a consistent direction for the longitudinal baroclinic pressure gradient. However, Mare Island Strait in San Francisco Bay has a local salinity minimum created by the phasing of the currents at the junction of Mare Island and Carquinez Straits. The salinity minimum creates converging baroclinic pressure gradients in Mare Island Strait. Equipment was deployed at four stations in the straits for 6 months from September 1997 to March 1998 to measure tidal variability of velocity, conductivity, temperature, depth, and suspended sediment concentration. Analysis of the measured time series shows that on a tidal time scale in Mare Island Strait, the landward and seaward baroclinic pressure gradients in the local salinity minimum interact with the barotropic gradient, creating regions of enhanced shear in the water column during the flood and reduced shear during the ebb. On a tidally averaged time scale, baroclinic pressure gradients converge on the tidally averaged salinity minimum and drive a converging near-bed and diverging surface current circulation pattern, forming a "baroclinic convergence zone" in Mare Island Strait. Historically large sedimentation rates in this area are attributed to the convergence zone. 

Delay in convection in nocturnal boundary layer due to aerosol-induced cooling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, Dhiraj Kumar; Ponnulakshmi, V. K.; Subramanian, G.; Sreenivas, K. R.

2012-11-01

Heat transfer processes in the nocturnal boundary layer (NBL) influence the surface energy budget, and play an important role in many micro-meteorological processes including the formation of inversion layers, radiation fog, and in the control of air-quality near the ground. Under calm clear-sky conditions, radiation dominates over other transport processes, and as a result, the air layers just above ground cool the fastest after sunset. This leads to an anomalous post-sunset temperature profile characterized by a minimum a few decimeters above ground (Lifted temperature minimum). We have designed a laboratory experimental setup to simulate LTM, involving an enclosed layer of ambient air, and wherein the boundary condition for radiation is decoupled from those for conduction and convection. The results from experiments involving both ambient and filtered air indicate that the high cooling rates observed are due to the presence of aerosols. Calculated Rayleigh number of LTM-type profiles is of the order 105-107 in the field and of order 103-105 in the laboratory. In the LTM region, there is convective motion when the Rayleigh number is greater than 104 rather than the critical Rayleigh number (Rac = 1709). The diameter of convection rolls is a function of height of minimum of LTM-type profiles. The results obtained should help in the parameterization of transport process in the nocturnal boundary layer, and highlight the need to accounting the effects of aerosols and ground emissivity in climate models.

Effects of local and regional climatic fluctuations on dengue outbreaks in southern Taiwan

PubMed Central

Chaves, Luis Fernando; Chen, Po-Jiang

2017-01-01

Background Southern Taiwan has been a hotspot for dengue fever transmission since 1998. During 2014 and 2015, Taiwan experienced unprecedented dengue outbreaks and the causes are poorly understood. This study aims to investigate the influence of regional and local climate conditions on the incidence of dengue fever in Taiwan, as well as to develop a climate-based model for future forecasting. Methodology/Principle findings Historical time-series data on dengue outbreaks in southern Taiwan from 1998 to 2015 were investigated. Local climate variables were analyzed using a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM), and the model of best fit was used to predict dengue incidence between 2013 and 2015. The cross-wavelet coherence approach was used to evaluate the regional El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) effects on dengue incidence and local climate variables. The DLNM results highlighted the important non-linear and lag effects of minimum temperature and precipitation. Minimum temperature above 23°C or below 17°C can increase dengue incidence rate with lag effects of 10 to 15 weeks. Moderate to high precipitation can increase dengue incidence rates with a lag of 10 or 20 weeks. The model of best fit successfully predicted dengue transmission between 2013 and 2015. The prediction accuracy ranged from 0.7 to 0.9, depending on the number of weeks ahead of the prediction. ENSO and IOD were associated with nonstationary inter-annual patterns of dengue transmission. IOD had a greater impact on the seasonality of local climate conditions. Conclusions/Significance Our findings suggest that dengue transmission can be affected by regional and local climatic fluctuations in southern Taiwan. The climate-based model developed in this study can provide important information for dengue early warning systems in Taiwan. Local climate conditions might be influenced by ENSO and IOD, to result in unusual dengue outbreaks. PMID:28575035

Effects of local and regional climatic fluctuations on dengue outbreaks in southern Taiwan.

PubMed

Chuang, Ting-Wu; Chaves, Luis Fernando; Chen, Po-Jiang

2017-01-01

Southern Taiwan has been a hotspot for dengue fever transmission since 1998. During 2014 and 2015, Taiwan experienced unprecedented dengue outbreaks and the causes are poorly understood. This study aims to investigate the influence of regional and local climate conditions on the incidence of dengue fever in Taiwan, as well as to develop a climate-based model for future forecasting. Historical time-series data on dengue outbreaks in southern Taiwan from 1998 to 2015 were investigated. Local climate variables were analyzed using a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM), and the model of best fit was used to predict dengue incidence between 2013 and 2015. The cross-wavelet coherence approach was used to evaluate the regional El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) effects on dengue incidence and local climate variables. The DLNM results highlighted the important non-linear and lag effects of minimum temperature and precipitation. Minimum temperature above 23°C or below 17°C can increase dengue incidence rate with lag effects of 10 to 15 weeks. Moderate to high precipitation can increase dengue incidence rates with a lag of 10 or 20 weeks. The model of best fit successfully predicted dengue transmission between 2013 and 2015. The prediction accuracy ranged from 0.7 to 0.9, depending on the number of weeks ahead of the prediction. ENSO and IOD were associated with nonstationary inter-annual patterns of dengue transmission. IOD had a greater impact on the seasonality of local climate conditions. Our findings suggest that dengue transmission can be affected by regional and local climatic fluctuations in southern Taiwan. The climate-based model developed in this study can provide important information for dengue early warning systems in Taiwan. Local climate conditions might be influenced by ENSO and IOD, to result in unusual dengue outbreaks.

Forecast of Frost Days Based on Monthly Temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castellanos, M. T.; Tarquis, A. M.; Morató, M. C.; Saa-Requejo, A.

2009-04-01

Although frost can cause considerable crop damage and mitigation practices against forecasted frost exist, frost forecasting technologies have not changed for many years. The paper reports a new method to forecast the monthly number of frost days (FD) for several meteorological stations at Community of Madrid (Spain) based on successive application of two models. The first one is a stochastic model, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), that forecasts monthly minimum absolute temperature (tmin) and monthly average of minimum temperature (tminav) following Box-Jenkins methodology. The second model relates these monthly temperatures to minimum daily temperature distribution during one month. Three ARIMA models were identified for the time series analyzed with a stational period correspondent to one year. They present the same stational behavior (moving average differenced model) and different non-stational part: autoregressive model (Model 1), moving average differenced model (Model 2) and autoregressive and moving average model (Model 3). At the same time, the results point out that minimum daily temperature (tdmin), for the meteorological stations studied, followed a normal distribution each month with a very similar standard deviation through years. This standard deviation obtained for each station and each month could be used as a risk index for cold months. The application of Model 1 to predict minimum monthly temperatures showed the best FD forecast. This procedure provides a tool for crop managers and crop insurance companies to asses the risk of frost frequency and intensity, so that they can take steps to mitigate against frost damage and estimated the damage that frost would cost. This research was supported by Comunidad de Madrid Research Project 076/92. The cooperation of the Spanish National Meteorological Institute and the Spanish Ministerio de Agricultura, Pesca y Alimentation (MAPA) is gratefully acknowledged.

MOnthly TEmperature DAtabase of Spain 1951-2010: MOTEDAS (2): The Correlation Decay Distance (CDD) and the spatial variability of maximum and minimum monthly temperature in Spain during (1981-2010).

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cortesi, Nicola; Peña-Angulo, Dhais; Simolo, Claudia; Stepanek, Peter; Brunetti, Michele; Gonzalez-Hidalgo, José Carlos

2014-05-01

One of the key point in the develop of the MOTEDAS dataset (see Poster 1 MOTEDAS) in the framework of the HIDROCAES Project (Impactos Hidrológicos del Calentamiento Global en España, Spanish Ministery of Research CGL2011-27574-C02-01) is the reference series for which no generalized metadata exist. In this poster we present an analysis of spatial variability of monthly minimum and maximum temperatures in the conterminous land of Spain (Iberian Peninsula, IP), by using the Correlation Decay Distance function (CDD), with the aim of evaluating, at sub-regional level, the optimal threshold distance between neighbouring stations for producing the set of reference series used in the quality control (see MOTEDAS Poster 1) and the reconstruction (see MOREDAS Poster 3). The CDD analysis for Tmax and Tmin was performed calculating a correlation matrix at monthly scale between 1981-2010 among monthly mean values of maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperature series (with at least 90% of data), free of anomalous data and homogenized (see MOTEDAS Poster 1), obtained from AEMEt archives (National Spanish Meteorological Agency). Monthly anomalies (difference between data and mean 1981-2010) were used to prevent the dominant effect of annual cycle in the CDD annual estimation. For each station, and time scale, the common variance r2 (using the square of Pearson's correlation coefficient) was calculated between all neighbouring temperature series and the relation between r2 and distance was modelled according to the following equation (1): Log (r2ij) = b*°dij (1) being Log(rij2) the common variance between target (i) and neighbouring series (j), dij the distance between them and b the slope of the ordinary least-squares linear regression model applied taking into account only the surrounding stations within a starting radius of 50 km and with a minimum of 5 stations required. Finally, monthly, seasonal and annual CDD values were interpolated using the Ordinary Kriging with a spherical variogram over conterminous land of Spain, and converted on a regular 10 km2 grid (resolution similar to the mean distance between stations) to map the results. In the conterminous land of Spain the distance at which couples of stations have a common variance in temperature (both maximum Tmax, and minimum Tmin) above the selected threshold (50%, r Pearson ~0.70) on average does not exceed 400 km, with relevant spatial and temporal differences. The spatial distribution of the CDD shows a clear coastland-to-inland gradient at annual, seasonal and monthly scale, with highest spatial variability along the coastland areas and lower variability inland. The highest spatial variability coincide particularly with coastland areas surrounded by mountain chains and suggests that the orography is one of the most driving factor causing higher interstation variability. Moreover, there are some differences between the behaviour of Tmax and Tmin, being Tmin spatially more homogeneous than Tmax, but its lower CDD values indicate that night-time temperature is more variable than diurnal one. The results suggest that in general local factors affects the spatial variability of monthly Tmin more than Tmax and then higher network density would be necessary to capture the higher spatial variability highlighted for Tmin respect to Tmax. The results suggest that in general local factors affects the spatial variability of Tmin more than Tmax and then higher network density would be necessary to capture the higher spatial variability highlighted for minimum temperature respect to maximum temperature. A conservative distance for reference series could be evaluated in 200 km, that we propose for continental land of Spain and use in the development of MOTEDAS.

The Effects of Volcano-Induced Ozone Depletion on Short-lived Climate Forcing in the Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ward, P. L.

2012-12-01

Photodissociation of oxygen maintains the stratopause ~50°C warmer than the tropopause. Photodissociation of ozone warms the lower stratosphere, preventing most of this high-energy DNA-damaging solar radiation from reaching the troposphere. Ozone depletion allows more UV energy to reach the lower troposphere causing photodissociation of anthropogenic ozone and nitrogen dioxide. UV energy also penetrates the ocean >10 m where it is absorbed more efficiently than infrared radiation that barely penetrates the surface. Manmade chlorofluorocarbons caused ozone depletion from 1965 to 1994 with slow recovery predicted over the next 50+ years. But the lowest levels of ozone followed the eruptions of Pinatubo (1991 VEI=6), Eyjafjallajökull (2010 VEI=4), and Grímsvötn (2011 VEI=4). Each of the relatively small, basaltic eruptions in Iceland caused more ozone depletion than the long-term effects of chlorofluorocarbons, although total ozone appears to return to pre-eruption levels within a decade. Ozone depletion by 20% increases energy flux thru the lowermost troposphere by 0.7 W m-2 for overhead sun causing temperatures in the lower stratosphere to drop >2°C since 1958 in steps after the 3 largest volcanic eruptions: Agung 1963, El Chichón 1982, and Pinatubo. Temperatures at the surface increased primarily in the regions and at the times of the greatest observed ozone depletion. The greatest warming observed was along the Western Antarctic Peninsula (65.4°S) where minimum temperatures rose 6.7°C from 1951 to 2003 while maximum temperatures remained relatively constant. Minimum total column ozone in September-October was 40-56% lower than in 1972 almost every year since 1987, strongly anti-correlated with observed minimum temperatures. Sea ice decreased 10%, 7 ice shelves separated, 87% of the glaciers retreated and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current warmed. Elsewhere under the ozone hole, warming of continental Antarctica was limited by the high albedo (0.86) of Antarctic snow and decreasing solar zenith angles at higher latitudes. The second largest ozone depletion was in the Arctic at the times and places of greatest winter warming. Average ozone at four stations in Canada (43-59°N) compared to the 1961-1970 mean were 6% lower in December 2010 after the eruption of Eyjafjallajökull and 11% lower in December 2011 after the eruption of Grímsvötn. In 2012, ozone levels were still 10% lower in March and 7% lower in July. The regions and timing of this depletion are the regions and times of unusually warm temperatures and drought in North America during 2011-2012. The Dust Bowl droughts in 1934 and 1936 show a similar temporal relationship to a highly unusual sequence of five VEI=4-5 eruptions around the Pacific in 1931-1933. Major increases in global pollution were from 1950-1970 while ozone-destroying tropospheric chlorine rose from 1970 to 1994, along with ocean heat content and mean temperature. Pollution does not seem to cause an increase in warming until ozone depletion allows more UV into the lower troposphere. Pollutants decrease surface solar radiation but also reduce Arctic-snow albedo. Widespread observations imply that ozone depletion and associated photodissociation cause substantial warming. Several issues regarding the microphysics of absorption and radiation by greenhouse gases must be resolved before we can quantify their relative importance.

The influence of climate variables on dengue in Singapore.

PubMed

Pinto, Edna; Coelho, Micheline; Oliver, Leuda; Massad, Eduardo

2011-12-01

In this work we correlated dengue cases with climatic variables for the city of Singapore. This was done through a Poisson Regression Model (PRM) that considers dengue cases as the dependent variable and the climatic variables (rainfall, maximum and minimum temperature and relative humidity) as independent variables. We also used Principal Components Analysis (PCA) to choose the variables that influence in the increase of the number of dengue cases in Singapore, where PC₁ (Principal component 1) is represented by temperature and rainfall and PC₂ (Principal component 2) is represented by relative humidity. We calculated the probability of occurrence of new cases of dengue and the relative risk of occurrence of dengue cases influenced by climatic variable. The months from July to September showed the highest probabilities of the occurrence of new cases of the disease throughout the year. This was based on an analysis of time series of maximum and minimum temperature. An interesting result was that for every 2-10°C of variation of the maximum temperature, there was an average increase of 22.2-184.6% in the number of dengue cases. For the minimum temperature, we observed that for the same variation, there was an average increase of 26.1-230.3% in the number of the dengue cases from April to August. The precipitation and the relative humidity, after analysis of correlation, were discarded in the use of Poisson Regression Model because they did not present good correlation with the dengue cases. Additionally, the relative risk of the occurrence of the cases of the disease under the influence of the variation of temperature was from 1.2-2.8 for maximum temperature and increased from 1.3-3.3 for minimum temperature. Therefore, the variable temperature (maximum and minimum) was the best predictor for the increased number of dengue cases in Singapore.

Analysis of agro-climatic parameters and their influence on maize production in South Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adisa, Omolola M.; Botai, Christina M.; Botai, Joel O.; Hassen, Abubeker; Darkey, Daniel; Tesfamariam, Eyob; Adisa, Alex F.; Adeola, Abiodun M.; Ncongwane, Katlego P.

2017-11-01

This study analyzed the variability of the agro-climatic parameters that impact maize production across different seasons in South Africa. To achieve this, four agro-climatic variables (precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, minimum, and maximum temperatures) were considered for the period spanning 1986-2015, covering the North West, Free State, Mpumalanga, and KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) provinces. Results illustrate that there is a negative trend in precipitation for North West and Free State provinces and positive trend in maximum temperature for all the provinces over the study period. Furthermore, the results showed that among other agro-climatic parameters, minimum temperature had the most influence on maize production in North West, potential evapotranspiration (combination of the agro-climatic parameters), minimum and maximum temperature influenced maize production in KZN while maximum temperature influenced maize production in Mpumalanga and Free State. In general, the agro-climatic parameters were found to contribute 7.79, 21.85, 32.52, and 44.39% to variation in maize production during the study period in North West, Free State, Mpumalanga, and KZN, respectively. The variation in maize production among the provinces under investigation could most likely attribute to the variation in the size of the cultivated land among other factors including soil type and land tenure system. There were also difference in yield per hectare between the provinces; KZN and Mpumalanga being located in the humid subtropical areas of South Africa had the highest yield per hectare 5.61 and 4.99 tons, respectively, while Free State and North West which are in the semi-arid region had the lowest yield per hectare 3.86 and 3.03 tons, respectively. Understanding the nature and interaction of the dominant agro-climatic parameters discussed in the present study as well as their impact on maize production will help farmers and agricultural policy makers to understand how climate change exerts its influence on maize production within the study area so as to better adapt to the major climate element that either increases or decreases maize production in their respective provinces.

Effects of climate change on daily minimum and maximum temperatures and cloudiness in the Shikoku region: a statistical downscaling model approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tatsumi, Kenichi; Oizumi, Tsutao; Yamashiki, Yosuke

2015-04-01

In this study, we present a detailed analysis of the effect of changes in cloudiness (CLD) between a future period (2071-2099) and the base period (1961-1990) on daily minimum temperature (TMIN) and maximum temperature (TMAX) in the same period for the Shikoku region, Japan. This analysis was performed using climate data obtained with the use of the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM). We calibrated the SDSM using the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis dataset for the SDSM input and daily time series of temperature and CLD from 10 surface data points (SDP) in Shikoku. Subsequently, we validated the SDSM outputs, specifically, TMIN, TMAX, and CLD, obtained with the use of the NCEP reanalysis dataset and general circulation model (GCM) data against the SDP. The GCM data used in the validation procedure were those from the Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 (HadCM3) for the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B2 scenarios and from the third generation Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM3) for the SRES A2 and A1B scenarios. Finally, the validated SDSM was run to study the effect of future changes in CLD on TMIN and TMAX. Our analysis showed that (1) the negative linear fit between changes in TMAX and those in CLD was statistically significant in winter while the relationship between the two changes was not evident in summer, (2) the dependency of future changes in TMAX and TMIN on future changes in CLD were more evident in winter than in other seasons with the present SDSM, (3) the diurnal temperature range (DTR) decreased in the southern part of Shikoku in summer in all the SDSM projections while DTR increased in the northern part of Shikoku in the same season in these projections, (4) the dependencies of changes in DTR on changes in CLD were unclear in summer and winter. Results of the SDSM simulations performed for climate change scenarios such as those from this study contribute to local-scale agricultural and hydrological simulations and development of agricultural and hydrological models.

Use of Regional Climate Model Output for Hydrologic Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hay, L. E.; Clark, M. P.; Wilby, R. L.; Gutowski, W. J.; Leavesley, G. H.; Pan, Z.; Arritt, R. W.; Takle, E. S.

2001-12-01

Daily precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature time series from a Regional Climate Model (RegCM2) were used as input to a distributed hydrologic model for a rainfall-dominated basin (Alapaha River at Statenville, Georgia) and three snowmelt-dominated basins (Animas River at Durango, Colorado; East Fork of the Carson River near Gardnerville, Nevada; and Cle Elum River near Roslyn, Washington). For comparison purposes, spatially averaged daily data sets of precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature were developed from measured data. These datasets included precipitation and temperature data for all stations that are located within the area of the RegCM2 model output used for each basin, but excluded station data used to calibrate the hydrologic model. Both the RegCM2 output and station data capture the gross aspects of the seasonal cycles of precipitation and temperature. However, in all four basins, the RegCM2- and station-based simulations of runoff show little skill on a daily basis (Nash-Sutcliffe (NS) values ranging from 0.05-0.37 for RegCM2 and -0.08-0.65 for station). When the precipitation and temperature biases are corrected in the RegCM2 output and station data sets (Bias-RegCM2 and Bias-station, respectively) the accuracy of the daily runoff simulations improve dramatically for the snowmelt-dominated basins. In the rainfall-dominated basin, runoff simulations based on the Bias-RegCM2 output show no skill (NS value of 0.09) whereas Bias-All simulated runoff improves (NS value improved from -0.08 to 0.72). These results indicate that the resolution of the RegCM2 output is appropriate for basin-scale modeling, but RegCM2 model output does not contain the day-to-day variability needed for basin-scale modeling in rainfall-dominated basins. Future work is warranted to identify the causes for systematic biases in RegCM2 simulations, develop methods to remove the biases, and improve RegCM2 simulations of daily variability in local climate.

Radiation-induced polymerization of glass-forming systems. IV. Effect of the homogeneity of polymerization phase and polymer concentration on temperature dependence of initial polymerization rate

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kaetsu, I.; Ito, A.; Hayashi, K.

1973-06-01

The effect of homogeneity of polymerization phase and monomer concentration on the temperature dependence of initial polymerization rate was studied in the radiation-induced radical polymerization of binary systems consisting of glass-forming monomer and solvent. In the polymerization of a completely homogeneous system such as HEMA-propylene glycol, a maximum and a minimum in polymerization rates as a function of temperature, characteristic of the polymerization in glass-forming systems, were observed for all monomer concentrations. However, in the heterogeneous polymerization systems such as HEMA-triacetin and HEMAisoamyl acetate, maximum and minimum rates were observed in monomer-rich compositions but not at low monomer concentrations. Furthermore,more » in the HEMA-dioctyl phthalate polymerization system, which is extremely heterogeneous, no maximum and minimum rates were observed at any monomer concentration. The effect of conversion on the temperature dependence of polymerization rate in homogeneous bulk polymerization of HEMA and GMA was investigated. Maximum and minimum rates were observed clearly in conversions less than 10% in the case of HEMA and less than 50% in the case of GMA, but the maximum and minimum changed to a mere inflection in the curve at higher conversions. A similar effect of polymer concentration on the temperature dependence of polymerization rate in the GMA-poly(methyl methacrylate) system was also observed. It is deduced that the change in temperature dependence of polymerization rate is attributed to the decrease in contribution of mutual termination reaction of growing chain radicals to the polymerization rate. (auth)« less

Vanishing river ice cover in the lower part of the Danube basin - signs of a changing climate.

PubMed

Ionita, M; Badaluta, C -A; Scholz, P; Chelcea, S

2018-05-21

Many of the world's largest rivers in the extra tropics are covered with ice during the cold season, and in the Northern Hemisphere approximately 60% of the rivers experience significant seasonal effects of river ice. Here we present an observational data set of the ice cover regime for the lower part of the Danube River which spans over the period 1837-2016, and its the longest one on record over this area. The results in this study emphasize the strong impact of climate change on the occurrence of ice regime especially in the second part of the 20 th century. The number of ice cover days has decreased considerably (~28days/century) mainly due to an increase in the winter mean temperature. In a long-term context, based on documentary evidences, we show that the ice cover occurrence rate was relatively small throughout the Medieval Warm Period (MWP), while the highest occurrence rates were found during the Maunder Minimum and Dalton Minimum periods. We conclude that the river ice regime can be used as a proxy for the winter temperature over the analyzed region and as an indicator of climate-change related impacts.

Variation of the topside ionosphere during the last solar minimum period studied with multisatellite measurements of electron density and temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ryu, Kwangsun; Kwak, Youngsil; Kim, Yong Ha; Park, Jaeheung; Lee, Junchan; Min, Kyoungwook

2016-07-01

Using the ionospheric measurements of CHAMP, DEMETER, and DMSP F15, the seasonal and spatial variations of the topside ionosphere during the last solar minimum period were investigated and compared with ionospheric models. In all the satellite measurements, equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA) shows clearly longitudinal asymmetry with wave number -3 or -4 patterns. Anomalous increases of Ne in the nighttime surpassing daytime Ne, known as the Weddell Sea anomaly (WSA) or midlatitude summer nighttime anomaly (MSNA), were also observed in the global Ne distribution with differences in detailed geometry of the geomagnetic field according to the altitude. In the nighttime ionosphere, the reduced Te in the equatorial region at the DMSP altitude, identified as the equatorial plasma temperature anomaly (EPTA), was ascribed to the leftover of the prereversal enhancement of the upward plasma drift. Though the EIA, WSA, MSNA, and EPTA are all associated with the upward plasma movement, the difference in the thermal evolution is ascribable to the geometry of drift in which the plasma moves across the geomagnetic field line for the EIA and the EPTA, while along the field line for the WSA and the MSNA.

Proportional-Integral-Derivative (PID) Temperature Control and Data Acquisition System for Faraday Filter based Sodium Spectrometer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Semerjyan, Vardan; Yuan, Tao

2011-04-01

Sodium (Na) Faraday filters based spectrometer is a relatively new instrument to study sodium nightglow as well as sodium and oxygen chemistry in the mesopause region. Successful spectrometer measurement demands highly accurate control of filter temperature. The ideal, long-term operation site for the Na spectrometer is an isolated location with minimum nocturnal sky background. Thus, the remote control of the filter temperature is a requirement for such operation, whereas current temperature controllers can only be operated manually. The proposed approach is aimed to not only enhance the temperature control, but also achieve spectrometer's remote and autonomous operation. In the meantime, the redesign should relief the burden of the cost for multi temperature controllers. The program will give to the operator flexibility in setting the operation temperatures of the Faraday filters, monitoring the temperature variations, and logging the data during the operation. Research will make diligent efforts to attach preliminary data analysis subroutine to the main control program. The real-time observation results will be posted online after the observation is completed. This approach also can be a good substitute for the temperature control system currently used to run the Lidar system at Utah State University (USU).

Stress dependence of microstructures in experimentally deformed calcite

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Platt, John P.; De Bresser, J. H. P.

2017-12-01

Optical measurements of microstructural features in experimentally deformed Carrara marble help define their dependence on stress. These features include dynamically recrystallized grain size (Dr), subgrain size (Sg), minimum bulge size (Lρ), and the maximum scale length for surface-energy driven grain-boundary migration (Lγ). Taken together with previously published data Dr defines a paleopiezometer over the range 15-291 MPa and temperature over the range 500-1000 °C, with a stress exponent of -1.09 (CI -1.27 to -0.95), showing no detectable dependence on temperature. Sg and Dr measured in the same samples are closely similar in size, suggesting that the new grains did not grow significantly after nucleation. Lρ and Lγ measured on each sample define a relationship to stress with an exponent of approximately -1.6, which helps define the boundary between a region of dominant strain-energy-driven grain-boundary migration at high stress, from a region of dominant surface-energy-driven grain-boundary migration at low stress.

A global view of F-region electron density and temperature at solar maximum

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brace, L. H.; Theis, R. F.; Hoegy, W. R.

1982-01-01

It is pointed out that the thermal structure of the ionosphere represents a quasi-static balance between a variety of heat sources and sinks which vary spatially and temporally on a wide range of time scales. The present investigation has the objective to present selected early results from the Dynamics Explorer-2 (DE-2) Langmuir probe instrument and to make an initial evaluation of how the thermal structure of the ionosphere at solar maximum differs from that observed at solar minimum. Bowen et al. (1964) and Brace and Reddy (1965) devised early empirical models of the F region electron temperature (Te), based on satellite Langmuir probe measurements at low levels of solar activity. The global structure of Te and the electron density (Ne) obtained in the current investigation is not very different from that reported by Brace and Reddy. The primary difference at solar maximum is that Ne is everywhere much higher, but Te differs only in detail.

Dengue transmission based on urban environmental gradients in different cities of Pakistan.

PubMed

Khalid, Bushra; Ghaffar, Abdul

2015-03-01

This study focuses on the dengue transmission in different regions of Pakistan. For this purpose, the data of dengue cases for 2009-2012 from four different cities (Rawalpindi, Islamabad, Lahore, and Karachi) of the country is collected, evaluated, and compiled. To identify the reasons and regions of higher risk of Dengue transmission, land use classification, analysis of climate covariates and drainage patterns was done. Analysis involves processing of SPOT 5 10 m, Landsat TM 30 m data sets, and SRTM 90 m digital elevation models by using remote sensing and GIS techniques. The results are based on the change in urbanization and population density, analysis of temperature, rainfall, and wind speed; calculation of drainage patterns including stream features, flow accumulation, and drainage density of the study areas. Results suggest that the low elevation areas with calm winds and minimum temperatures higher than the normal, rapid increase in unplanned urbanization, low flow accumulation, and higher drainage density areas favor the dengue transmission.

Acetylene measurement in flames by chirp-based quantum cascade laser spectrometry.

PubMed

Quine, Zachary R; McNesby, Kevin L

2009-06-01

We have designed and characterized a mid-IR spectrometer built around a pulsed distributed-feedback quantum cascade laser using the characteristic frequency down-chirp to scan through the spectral region 6.5 cm(-1) spectral region. The behavior of this chirp is extensively measured. The accuracy and detection limits of the system as an absorption spectrometer are demonstrated first by measuring spectra of acetylene through a single pass 16 cm absorption cell in real time at low concentrations and atmospheric pressure. The smallest detectable peak is measured to be approximately 1.5 x 10(-4) absorbance units, yielding a minimum detectable concentration length product of 2.4 parts per million meter at standard temperature and pressure. This system is then used to detect acetylene within an ethylene-air opposed flow flame. Measurements of acetylene content as a function of height above the fuel source are presented, as well as measurements of acetylene produced in fuel breakdown as a function of preinjection fuel temperature.

Electrical characterizations of MIS structures based on variable-gap n(p)-HgCdTe grown by MBE on Si(0 1 3) substrates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voitsekhovskii, A. V.; Nesmelov, S. N.; Dzyadukh, S. M.; Varavin, V. S.; Dvoretskii, S. A.; Mikhailov, N. N.; Yakushev, M. V.; Sidorov, G. Yu.

2017-12-01

Metal-insulator-semiconductor (MIS) structures based on n(p)-Hg1-xCdxTe (x = 0.22-0.40) with near-surface variable-gap layers were grown by the molecular-beam epitaxy (MBE) technique on the Si (0 1 3) substrates. Electrical properties of MIS structures were investigated experimentally at various temperatures (9-77 K) and directions of voltage sweep. The ;narrow swing; technique was used to determine the spectra of fast surface states with the exception of hysteresis effects. It is established that the density of fast surface states at the MCT/Al2O3 interface at a minimum does not exceed 3 × 1010 eV-1 × cm-2. For MIS structures based on n-MCT/Si(0 1 3), the differential resistance of the space-charge region in strong inversion mode in the temperature range 50-90 K is limited by the Shockley-Read-Hall generation in the space-charge region.

The effect of catalyst length and downstream reactor distance on catalytic combustor performance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Anderson, D.

1980-01-01

A study was made to determine the effects on catalytic combustor performance which resulted from independently varying the length of a catalytic reactor and the length available for gas-phase reactions downstream of the catalyst. Monolithic combustion catalysts from three manufacturers were tested in a combustion test rig with no. 2 diesel fuel. Catalytic reactor lengths of 2.5 and 5.4 cm, and downstream gas-phase reaction distances of 7.3, 12.4, 17.5, and 22.5 cm were evaluated. Measurements of carbon monoxide, unburned hydrocarbons, nitrogen oxides, and pressure drop were made. The catalytic-reactor pressure drop was less than 1 percent of the upstream total pressure for all test configurations and test conditions. Nitrogen oxides and unburned hydrocarbons emissions were less than 0.25 g NO2/kg fuel and 0.6 g HC/kg fuel, respectively. The minimum operating temperature (defined as the adiabatic combustion temperature required to obtain carbon monoxide emissions below a reference level of 13.6 g CO/kg fuel) ranged from 1230 K to 1500 K for the various conditions and configurations tested. The minimum operating temperature decreased with increasing total (catalytic-reactor-plus-downstream-gas-phase-reactor-zone) residence time but was independent of the relative times spent in each region when the catalytic-reactor residence time was greater than or equal to 1.4 ms.

Impact of climate change on runoff in Lake Urmia basin, Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanikhani, Hadi; Kisi, Ozgur; Amirataee, Babak

2018-04-01

Investigation of the impact of climate change on water resources is very necessary in dry and arid regions. In the first part of this paper, the climate model Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) was used for downscaling climate data including rainfall, solar radiation, and minimum and maximum temperatures. Two different case studies including Aji-Chay and Mahabad-Chay River basins as sub-basins of Lake Urmia in the northwest part of Iran were considered. The results indicated that the LARS-WG successfully downscaled the climatic variables. By application of different emission scenarios (i.e., A1B, A2, and B1), an increasing trend in rainfall and a decreasing trend in temperature were predicted for both the basins over future time periods. In the second part of this paper, gene expression programming (GEP) was applied for simulating runoff of the basins in the future time periods including 2020, 2055, and 2090. The input combination including rainfall, solar radiation, and minimum and maximum temperatures in current and prior time was selected as the best input combination with highest predictive power for runoff prediction. The results showed that the peak discharge will decrease by 50 and 55.9% in 2090 comparing with the baseline period for the Aji-Chay and Mahabad-Chay basins, respectively. The results indicated that the sustainable adaptation strategies are necessary for these basins for protection of water resources in future.

Frost monitoring of fruit tree with satellite data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fan, Jinlong; Zhang, Mingwei; Cao, Guangzheng; Zhang, Xiaoyu; Liu, Chenchen; Niu, Xinzan; Xu, Wengbo

2012-09-01

The orchards are developing very fast in the northern China in recent years with the increasing demands on fruits in China. In most parts of the northern China, the risk of frost damage to fruit tree in early spring is potentially high under the background of global warming. The growing season comes earlier than it does in normal year due to the warm weather in earlier spring and the risk will be higher in this case. According to the reports, frost event in spring happens almost every year in Ningxia Region, China. In bad cases, late frosts in spring can be devastating all fruit. So lots of attention has been given to the study in monitoring, evaluating, preventing and mitigating frost. Two orchards in Ningxia, Taole and Jiaozishan orchards were selected as the study areas. MODIS data were used to monitor frost events in combination with minimum air temperature recorded at weather station. The paper presents the findings. The very good correlation was found between MODIS LST and minimum air temperature in Ningxia. Light, middle and severe frosts were captured in the study area by MODIS LST. The MODIS LST shows the spatial differences of temperature in the orchards. 10 frost events in April from 2000 to 2010 were captured by the satellite data. The monitoring information may be hours ahead circulated to the fruit farmers to prevent the damage and loss of fruit trees.

Structure and dynamics of the hydration shells of the Al3+ ion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bylaska, Eric J.; Valiev, Marat; Rustad, James R.; Weare, John H.

2007-03-01

First principles simulations of the hydration shells surrounding Al3+ ions are reported for temperatures near 300°C. The predicted six water molecules in the octahedral first hydration shell were found to be trigonally coordinated via hydrogen bonds to 12s shell water molecules in agreement with the putative structure used to analyze the x-ray data, but in disagreement with the results reported from conventional molecular dynamics using two-and three-body potentials. Bond lengths and angles of the water molecules in the first and second hydration shells and the average radii of these shells also agreed very well with the results of the x-ray analysis. Water transfers into and out of the second solvation shell were observed to occur on a picosecond time scale via a dissociative mechanism. Beyond the second shell the bonding pattern substantially returned to the tetrahedral structure of bulk water. Most of the simulations were done with 64 solvating water molecules (20ps). Limited simulations with 128 water molecules (7ps) were also carried out. Results agreed as to the general structure of the solvation region and were essentially the same for the first and second shell. However, there were differences in hydrogen bonding and Al-O radial distribution function in the region just beyond the second shell. At the end of the second shell a nearly zero minimum in the Al-O radial distribution was found for the 128 water system. This minimum is less pronounced minimum found for the 64 water system, which may indicate that sizes larger than 64 may be required to reliably predict behavior in this region.

Electrostatic contribution from solvent in modulating single-walled carbon nanotube association

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ou, Shu-Ching; Patel, Sandeep, E-mail: sapatel@udel.edu

We perform all-atom molecular dynamics simulations to compute the potential of mean force (PMF) between two (10,10) single-walled carbon nanotubes solvated in pure nonpolarizable SPC/E and polarizable TIP4P-FQ water, at various temperatures. In general, the reversible work required to bring two nanotubes from a dissociated state (free energy reference) to contact state (free energy minimum) is more favorable and less temperature-dependent in TIP4P-FQ than in SPC/E water models. In contrast, molecular properties and behavior of water such as the spatially-resolved water number density (intertube, intratube, or outer regions), for TIP4P-FQ are more sensitive to temperature than SPC/E. Decomposition of themore » solvent-induced PMF into different spatial regions suggests that TIP4P-FQ has stronger temperature dependence; the opposing destabilizing/stabilizing contributions from intertube water and more distal water balance each other and suppress the temperature dependence of total association free energy. Further investigation of hydrogen bonding network in intertube water reveals that TIP4P-FQ retains fewer hydrogen bonds than SPC/E, which correlates with the lower water number density in this region. This reduction of hydrogen bonds affects the intertube water dipoles. As the intertube volume decreases, TIP4P-FQ dipole moment approaches the gas phase value; the distribution of dipole magnitude also becomes narrower due to less average polarization/perturbation from other water molecules. Our results imply that the reduction of water under confinement may seem trivial, but underlying effects to structure and free energetics are non-negligible.« less

Low-frequency polarization measurements of the diffuse radio emission of the galaxy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vinyaikin, E. N.; Paseka, A. M.

2015-07-01

Polarization measurements of diffuse Galactic radio emission at 151.5, 198, 217, 237, and 290 MHz have been carried out in the direction of the North Celestial Pole, North Galactic Pole, one region of the North Polar Spur, minimum radio brightness of the Northern sky ( l = 190°, b = 50°), and in the direction l = 147°, b = 9° in the so-called FAN region with enhanced polarization. The results obtained testify to the presence of low spatial frequencies in the angular distribution of the Stokes parameters Q and U of the diffuse Galactic synchrotron emission that are not detectable in interferometric observations. The spectra of the brightness temperature of the polarized component, rotation measures, and intrinsic polarization position angles of the radio emission in the studied regions are presented.

Proceedings of the Antenna Applications Symposium Held in Illinois, Robert Allerton Park on 21-23 September 1988. Volume 2

DTIC Science & Technology

1989-06-01

for stainless steel airlines of a nominal length of 7.5 cm, a temperature .hanne of +30C changes the length about ±--_1 electrical degree at 18 GHz...regions, each of which satisfies the source- free boundary conditions. The sum of these modes are then matched to the source discontinuity. The wave...dimension H, perpendicular to the array, represents a free dimension in linear array design limited only by the minimum field-of-view (FOV) orthogonal

Functionality limit of classical simulated annealing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hasegawa, M.

2015-09-01

By analyzing the system dynamics in the landscape paradigm, optimization function of classical simulated annealing is reviewed on the random traveling salesman problems. The properly functioning region of the algorithm is experimentally determined in the size-time plane and the influence of its boundary on the scalability test is examined in the standard framework of this method. From both results, an empirical choice of temperature length is plausibly explained as a minimum requirement that the algorithm maintains its scalability within its functionality limit. The study exemplifies the applicability of computational physics analysis to the optimization algorithm research.

Detection of severe Midwest thunderstorms using geosynchronous satellite data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Adler, R. F.; Markus, M. J.; Fenn, D. D.

1985-01-01

In the present exploration of the effectiveness of severe thunderstorm detection in the Midwestern region of the U.S. by means of approximately 5-min interval geosynchronous satellite data, thunderstorms are defined in IR data as points of relative minimum in brightness temperature T(B) having good time continuity and exhibiting a period of rapid growth. The four parameters of rate of T(B) decrease in the upper troposphere and stratosphere, isotherm expansion, and storm lifetime minimum T(B), are shown to be statistically related to the occurrence of severe weather on four case study days and are combined into a Thunderstorm Index which varies among values from 1 to 9. Storms rating higher than 6 have a much higher probability of severe weather reports, yielding a warning time lead of 15 min for hail and 30 min for the first tornado report.

An Earth longwave radiation climate model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yang, S. K.

1984-01-01

An Earth outgoing longwave radiation (OLWR) climate model was constructed for radiation budget study. Required information is provided by on empirical 100mb water vapor mixing ratio equation of the mixing ratio interpolation scheme. Cloud top temperature is adjusted so that the calculation would agree with NOAA scanning radiometer measurements. Both clear sky and cloudy sky cases are calculated and discussed for global average, zonal average and world-wide distributed cases. The results agree well with the satellite observations. The clear sky case shows that the OLWR field is highly modulated by water vapor, especially in the tropics. The strongest longitudinal variation occurs in the tropics. This variation can be mostly explained by the strong water vapor gradient. Although in the zonal average case the tropics have a minimum in OLWR, the minimum is essentially contributed by a few very low flux regions, such as the Amazon, Indonesian and the Congo.

Spatial and temporal variability in minimum temperature trends in the western U.S. sagebrush steppe

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Climate is a major driver of ecosystem dynamics. In recent years there has been considerable interest in future climate change and potential impacts on ecosystems and management options. In this paper, we analyzed minimum monthly temperature (T min) for ten rural locations in the western sagebrush...

The surface climatology of the Ross Ice Shelf Antarctica

PubMed Central

Lazzara, Matthew A.; Keller, Linda M.; Cassano, John J.

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT The University of Wisconsin‐Madison Antarctic Automatic Weather Station (AWS) project has been making meteorological surface observations on the Ross Ice Shelf (RIS) for approximately 30 years. This network offers the most continuous set of routine measurements of surface meteorological variables in this region. The Ross Island area is excluded from this study. The surface climate of the RIS is described using the AWS measurements. Temperature, pressure, and wind data are analysed on daily, monthly, seasonal, and annual time periods for 13 AWS across the RIS. The AWS are separated into three representative regions – central, coastal, and the area along the Transantarctic Mountains – in order to describe specific characteristics of sections of the RIS. The climatology describes general characteristics of the region and significant changes over time. The central AWS experiences the coldest mean temperature, and the lowest resultant wind speed. These AWSs also experience the coldest potential temperatures with a minimum of 209.3 K at Gill AWS. The AWS along the Transantarctic Mountains experiences the warmest mean temperature, the highest mean sea‐level pressure, and the highest mean resultant wind speed. Finally, the coastal AWS experiences the lowest mean pressure. Climate indices (MEI, SAM, and SAO) are compared to temperature and pressure data of four of the AWS with the longest observation periods, and significant correlation is found for most AWS in sea‐level pressure and temperature. This climatology study highlights characteristics that influence the climate of the RIS, and the challenges of maintaining a long‐term Antarctic AWS network. Results from this effort are essential for the broader Antarctic meteorology community for future research. PMID:28008213

Climate Warming and Seasonal Precipitation Change Interact to Limit Species Distribution Shifts across Western North America

PubMed Central

Harsch, Melanie A.; HilleRisLambers, Janneke

2016-01-01

Using an extensive network of occurrence records for 293 plant species collected over the past 40 years across a climatically diverse geographic section of western North America, we find that plant species distributions were just as likely to shift upwards (i.e., towards higher elevations) as downward (i.e., towards lower elevations)–despite consistent warming across the study area. Although there was no clear directional response to climate warming across the entire study area, there was significant region- to region- variation in responses (i.e. from as many as 73% to as few as 32% of species shifting upward). To understand the factors that might be controlling region-specific distributional shifts of plant species, we explored the relationship between the direction of change in distribution limits and the nature of recent climate change. We found that the direction that distribution limits shifted was explained by an interaction between the rate of change in local summer temperatures and seasonal precipitation. Specifically, species were more likely to shift upward at their upper elevational limit when minimum temperatures increased and snowfall was unchanging or declined at slower rates (<0.5 mm/year). This suggests that both low temperature and water availability limit upward shifts at upper elevation limits. By contrast, species were more likely to shift upwards at their lower elevation limit when maximum temperatures increased, but also shifted upwards under conditions of cooling temperatures when precipitation decreased. This suggests increased water stress may drive upward shifts at lower elevation limits. Our results suggest that species’ elevational distribution shifts are not predictable by climate warming alone but depend on the interaction between seasonal temperature and precipitation change. PMID:27447834

Magnetic reconnection in the low solar chromosphere with a more realistic radiative cooling model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ni, Lei; Lukin, Vyacheslav S.; Murphy, Nicholas A.; Lin, Jun

2018-04-01

Magnetic reconnection is the most likely mechanism responsible for the high temperature events that are observed in strongly magnetized locations around the temperature minimum in the low solar chromosphere. This work improves upon our previous work [Ni et al., Astrophys. J. 852, 95 (2018)] by using a more realistic radiative cooling model computed from the OPACITY project and the CHIANTI database. We find that the rate of ionization of the neutral component of the plasma is still faster than recombination within the current sheet region. For low β plasmas, the ionized and neutral fluid flows are well-coupled throughout the reconnection region resembling the single-fluid Sweet-Parker model dynamics. Decoupling of the ion and neutral inflows appears in the higher β case with β0=1.46 , which leads to a reconnection rate about three times faster than the rate predicted by the Sweet-Parker model. In all cases, the plasma temperature increases with time inside the current sheet, and the maximum value is above 2 ×104 K when the reconnection magnetic field strength is greater than 500 G. While the more realistic radiative cooling model does not result in qualitative changes of the characteristics of magnetic reconnection, it is necessary for studying the variations of the plasma temperature and ionization fraction inside current sheets in strongly magnetized regions of the low solar atmosphere. It is also important for studying energy conversion during the magnetic reconnection process when the hydrogen-dominated plasma approaches full ionization.

Changes in atmospheric circulation between solar maximum and minimum conditions in winter and summer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Jae Nyung

2008-10-01

Statistically significant climate responses to the solar variability are found in Northern Annular Mode (NAM) and in the tropical circulation. This study is based on the statistical analysis of numerical simulations with ModelE version of the chemistry coupled Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM) and National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis. The low frequency large scale variability of the winter and summer circulation is described by the NAM, the leading Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) of geopotential heights. The newly defined seasonal annular modes and its dynamical significance in the stratosphere and troposphere in the GISS ModelE is shown and compared with those in the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. In the stratosphere, the summer NAM obtained from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis as well as from the ModelE simulations has the same sign throughout the northern hemisphere, but shows greater variability at low latitudes. The patterns in both analyses are consistent with the interpretation that low NAM conditions represent an enhancement of the seasonal difference between the summer and the annual averages of geopotential height, temperature and velocity distributions, while the reverse holds for high NAM conditions. Composite analysis of high and low NAM cases in both the model and observation suggests that the summer stratosphere is more "summer-like" when the solar activity is near a maximum. This means that the zonal easterly wind flow is stronger and the temperature is higher than normal. Thus increased irradiance favors a low summer NAM. A quantitative comparison of the anti-correlation between the NAM and the solar forcing is presented in the model and in the observation, both of which show lower/higher NAM index in solar maximum/minimum conditions. The summer NAM in the troposphere obtained from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis has a dipolar zonal structure with maximum variability over the Asian monsoon region. The corresponding EOF in ModelE has a qualitatively similar structure but with less variability in the Asian monsoon region which is displaced eastward of its observed position. In both the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and the GISS GCM, the negative anomalies associated with the NAM in the Euro-Atlantic and Aleutian island regions are enhanced in the solar minimum conditions, though the results are not statistically significant. The difference of the downward propagation of NAM between solar maximum and solar minimum is shown with the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. For the winter NAM, a much greater fraction of stratospheric circulation perturbations penetrate to the surface in solar maximum conditions than in minimum conditions. This difference is more striking when the zonal wind direction in the tropics is from the west: when equatorial 50 hPa winds are from the west, no stratospheric signals reach the surface under solar minimum conditions, while over 50 percent reach the surface under solar maximum conditions. This work also studies the response of the tropical circulation to the solar forcing in combination with different atmospheric compositions and with different ocean modules. Four model experiments have been designed to investigate the role of solar forcing in the tropical circulation: one with the present day (PD) greenhouse gases and aerosol conditions, one with the preindustrial (PI) conditions, one with the doubled minimum solar forcing, and finally one with the hybrid-isopycnic ocean model (HYCOM). The response patterns in the tropical humidity and in the vertical motion due to solar forcing are season dependent and spatially heterogeneous. The tropical humidity response from the model experiments are compared with the corresponding differences obtained from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis with all years and with non-ENSO years. Both the model and the reanalysis consistently show that the specific humidity is significantly greater in the convective region in solar maximum compared to solar minimum for January and July. The column integrated humidity in all the model experiments with different composition, different solar forcing, and different ocean module, increased with solar forcing in the tropical band over the Atlantic sector in both seasons. The model's humidity response pattern is generally consistent with the paleoclimate records indicating increased precipitation near the equator that decreases at subtropical to middle latitudes with increased solar output. The differences in the zonally averaged vertical velocities indicate that the ascending branch of the Hadley cell is enhanced and shifted northward, and that the descending branch is weakened and shifted northward in the solar MAX simulation in January. The downward branch of the Hadley cell is strengthened in MAX in July. A possible link of climate response in midlatitudes to solar forcing is also presented by showing changes in zonal mean wind, changes in temperature gradient, and changes in E-P flux.

FORWINE - Statistical Downscaling of Seasonal forecasts for wine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cardoso, Rita M.; Soares, Pedro M. M.; Miranda, Pedro M. A.

2016-04-01

The most renowned viticulture regions in the Iberian Peninsula have a long standing tradition in winemaking and are considered world-class grapevine (Vitis Vinifera L.) producing regions. Portugal is the 11th wine producer in the world, with internationally acclaimed wines, such as Port wine, and vineyards across the whole territory. Climate is widely acknowledged of one of the most important factors for grapevine development and growth (Fraga et al. 2014a and b; Jackson et al. 1993; Keller 2010). During the growing season (April-October in the Northern Hemisphere) of this perennial and deciduous crop, the climatic conditions are responsible for numerous morphologically and physiological changes. Anomalously low February-March mean temperature, anomalously high May mean temperature and anomalously high March precipitation tend to be favourable to wine production in the Douro Valley. Seasonal forecast of precipitation and temperature tailored to fit critical thresholds, for crucial seasons, can be used to inform management practices (viz. phytosanitary measures, land operations, marketing campaigns) and develop a wine production forecast. Statistical downscaling of precipitation, maximum, minimum temperatures is used to model wine production following Santos et al. (2013) and to calculate bioclimatic indices. The skill of the ensemble forecast is evaluated through anomaly correlation, ROC area, spread-error ratio and CRPS

Assessment of Air Temperature Trends in the Source Region of Yellow River and Its Sub-Basins, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iqbal, Mudassar; Wen, Jun; Wang, Xin; Lan, Yongchao; Tian, Hui; Anjum, Muhammad Naveed; Adnan, Muhammad

2018-02-01

Changes in climatic variables at the sub-basins scale (having different features of land cover) are crucial for planning, development and designing of water resources infrastructure in the context of climate change. Accordingly, to explore the features of climate changes in sub-basins of the Source Region of Yellow River (SRYR), absolute changes and trends of temperature variables, maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), mean temperature (Tavg) and diurnal temperature range (DTR), were analyzed annually and seasonally by using daily observed air temperature dataset from 1965 to 2014. Results showed that annual Tmax, Tmin and Tavg for the SRYR were experiencing warming trends respectively at the rate of 0.28, 0.36 and 0.31°C (10 yr)-1. In comparison with the 1st period (1965-1989), more absolute changes and trends towards increasing were observed during the 2nd period (1990-2014). Apart from Tangnaihai (a low altitude sub-basin), these increasing trends and changes seemed more significant in other basins with highest magnitude during winter. Among sub-basins the increasing trends were more dominant in Huangheyan compared to other sub-basins. The largest increase magnitude of Tmin, 1.24 and 1.18°C (10 yr)-1, occurred in high altitude sub-basins Jimai and Huangheyan, respectively, while the smallest increase magnitude of 0.23°C (10 yr)-1 occurred in a low altitude sub-basin Tangnaihai. The high elevation difference in Tangnaihai probably was the main reason for the less increase in the magnitude of Tmin. In the last decade, smaller magnitude of trend for all temperature variables signified the signal of cooling in the region. Overall, changes of temperature variables had significant spatial and seasonal variations. It implies that seasonal variations of runoff might be greater or different for each sub-basin.

Relation Between Inflammables and Ignition Sources in Aircraft Environments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Scull, Wilfred E

1950-01-01

A literature survey was conducted to determine the relation between aircraft ignition sources and inflammables. Available literature applicable to the problem of aircraft fire hazards is analyzed and, discussed herein. Data pertaining to the effect of many variables on ignition temperatures, minimum ignition pressures, and minimum spark-ignition energies of inflammables, quenching distances of electrode configurations, and size of openings incapable of flame propagation are presented and discussed. The ignition temperatures and the limits of inflammability of gasoline in air in different test environments, and the minimum ignition pressure and the minimum size of openings for flame propagation of gasoline - air mixtures are included. Inerting of gasoline - air mixtures is discussed.

Venusian Applications of 3D Convection Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bonaccorso, Timary Annie

2011-01-01

This study models mantle convection on Venus using the 'cubed sphere' code OEDIPUS, which models one-sixth of the planet in spherical geometry. We are attempting to balance internal heating, bottom mantle viscosity, and temperature difference across Venus' mantle, in order to create a realistic model that matches with current planetary observations. We also have begun to run both lower and upper mantle simulations to determine whether layered (as opposed to whole-mantle) convection might produce more efficient heat transfer, as well as to model coronae formation in the upper mantle. Upper mantle simulations are completed using OEDIPUS' Cartesian counterpart, JOCASTA. This summer's central question has been how to define a mantle plume. Traditionally, we have defined a hot plume the region with temperature at or above 40% of the difference between the maximum and horizontally averaged temperature, and a cold plume as the region with 40% of the difference between the minimum and average temperature. For less viscous cases (1020 Pa?s), the plumes generated by that definition lacked vigor, displaying buoyancies 1/100th of those found in previous, higher viscosity simulations (1021 Pa?s). As the mantle plumes with large buoyancy flux are most likely to produce topographic uplift and volcanism, the low viscosity cases' plumes may not produce observable deformation. In an effort to eliminate the smallest plumes, we experimented with different lower bound parameters and temperature percentages.

Discrete meso-element simulation of chemical reactions in shear bands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tamura, S.; Horie, Y.

1998-07-01

A meso-dynamic simulation technique is used to investigate the chemical reactions in high speed shearing of reactive porous mixtures. The reaction speed is assumed to be a function of temperature, pressure and mixing of materials. To gain a theoretical insight into the experiments reported by Nesterenko et al., a parametric study of material flow and local temperature was carried out using a Nb and Si mixture. In the model calculation, a heterogeneous shear region of 5 μm width, consisting of alternating layers of Nb and Si, was created first in a mixture and then sheared at the rate of 8.0×107s-1. Results show that the material flow is mostly homogeneous, but contains a local agglomeration and circulatory flow. This behavior accelerates mass mixing and causes a significant temperature increase. To evaluate the mixing of material, average minimum distance of materials separation was calculated. Voids effect were also investigated.

Introduction to the special issue on the changing Mojave Desert

USGS Publications Warehouse

Berry, Kristin H.; Murphy, R.W.; Mack, Jeremy S.; Quillman, W.

2006-01-01

The Mojave Desert, which lies between the Great Basin Desert in the north and the Sonoran Desert in the south, covers an estimated 114 478–130 464 km2 of the south-western United States and includes parts of the states of Nevada, Utah, Arizona, and California, with the amount of land mass dependent on the definition (Fig. 1; Rowlands et al., 1982; McNab and Avers, 1994; Bailey, 1995; Groves et al., 2000). This desert is sufficiently diverse to be subdivided into five regions: northern, south-western, central, south-central, and eastern (Rowlands et al., 1982). It is a land of extremes both in topography and climate. Elevations range from below sea level at Death Valley National Park to 3633 m on Mt. Charleston in the Spring Range of Nevada. Temperatures exhibit similar extreme ranges with mean minimum January temperatures of −2.4 °C in Beatty, Nevada and mean maximum July temperatures of 47 °C in Death Valley. Mean annual precipitation varies throughout the regions (42–350 mm), is highest on mountain tops, but overall is low (Rowlands et al., 1982; Rowlands, 1995a). The distribution of precipitation varies from west to east and north to south, with >85% of rain falling in winter in the northern, south-western and south-central regions. In contrast, the central and eastern regions receive a substantial amount of precipitation in both winter and summer. The variability in topographic and climatic features contributes to regional differences in vegetation.

Effects of Post-Deposition Annealing on ZrO2/n-GaN MOS Capacitors with H2O and O3 as the Oxidizers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Meijuan; Zhang, Guozhen; Wang, Xiao; Wan, Jiaxian; Wu, Hao; Liu, Chang

2017-04-01

GaN-based metal-oxide-semiconductor capacitors with ZrO2 as the dielectric layer have been prepared by atomic layer deposition. The accumulation and depletion regions can be clearly distinguished when the voltage was swept from -4 to 4 V. Post-annealing results suggested that the capacitance in accumulation region went up gradually as the annealing temperature increased from 300 to 500 °C. A minimum leakage current density of 3 × 10-9 A/cm2 at 1 V was obtained when O3 was used for the growth of ZrO2. Leakage analysis revealed that Schottky emission and Fowler-Nordheim tunneling were the main leakage mechanisms.

Analysis of chosen urban bioclimatic conditions in Upper Silesian Industrial Region, Poland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zimnol, Jan

2013-04-01

Due to the increasing urbanization, people spend more and more time in cities. Because of that fact during the last century the human bioclimatological approach had an important influence on the applied urban bioclimatology. The aim of the study was to analyze chosen thermal bioclimatic conditions in urban area of Upper Silesian Industrial Region in connection with the atmospheric circulation and air masses. The study was focused on the thermal conditions that are important for the bioclimatological research on human thermal comfort. They were the basis for making study on how to show the influence of the air masses and circulations types on frequency and variability of the chosen bioclimate indexes. That research was based on data (2004 - 2008) acquired by the Silesian University (Faculty of Earth Sciences) meteorological station located in the city of Sosnowiec (50°17'N, 19°08'E, h=263 m a.s.l.). The temperature measurements were made automatically every 10 minutes on the 2 meters above the ground level. Previous research showed that the station is a good representation of the local urban climate conditions in Upper Silesian Industrial Region. In the study the following air temperatures were taken into consideration: average day temperature, maximum day temperature, minimum day temperature and the average air temperature at 12 UTC. They were associated with atmospheric circulation types and masses typical for the region. Using the data mentioned above I conducted a classification to divide days into following objective categories: cool, cold, comfortable, hot, warm and very hot in the seasonal depiction. The final stage of the work was to find the answer to the following question: "When and how do the strong air masses and air circulations types modify bioclimatic conditions in the study area?" Answer to that question together with further results of the research will be presented on my poster.

Characterizing the Seasonality and Spatiotemporal Evolution of the U.S. Warming Hole

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Partridge, T.; Winter, J.; Osterberg, E. C.; Magilligan, F. J.; Hyndman, D. W.; Kendall, A. D.

2017-12-01

Regions of the Eastern United States have experienced periods of cooling during the last half of the twentieth century inconsistent with broader global warming trends. While there have been a variety of mechanisms proposed to explain this "warming hole", the spatial and temporal definitions of the warming hole often differ across studies, potentially obfuscating the physical drivers leading to its existence. Further, a broad consensus on the causality of the warming hole has yet to be reached. We use daily temperature data from the Global Historical Climate Network (GHCN) to conduct a thorough characterization of the spatiotemporal evolution and seasonality of regional cooling across the Eastern U.S., and define a dynamic warming hole as the region of most persistent cooling. We find that the location of the dynamic warming hole varies by season from the Midwestern U.S. during summer to the Southeastern U.S. during winter. In addition, the cool period associated with the warming hole is characterized by an abrupt decrease in maximum temperature (Tx) and a decline in minimum temperature (Tn) around 1957. While average Tn values in the warming hole recover after the decline and increase from the mid 1960's to present, Tx values for the second half of the 20th century remain below observed values from the first half of the century. To explore large-scale atmospheric drivers of the dynamic warming hole, we correlate SST teleconnection and regional atmospheric circulation indices with seasonal temperature values from 1901-1957 and 1958-2015. We show that 1957 marks a shift, where winter temperatures in the warming hole become more correlated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and less correlated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Summer warming hole temperatures become less correlated with the NAO post 1957 and are strongly negatively correlated with precipitation.

The Eocene climate of China, the early elevation of the Tibetan Plateau and the onset of the Asian Monsoon.

PubMed

Wang, Qing; Spicer, Robert A; Yang, Jian; Wang, Yu-Fei; Li, Cheng-Sen

2013-12-01

Eocene palynological samples from 37 widely distributed sites across China were analysed using co-existence approach to determine trends in space and time for seven palaeoclimate variables: Mean annual temperature, mean annual precipitation, mean temperature of the warmest month, mean temperature of the coldest month, mean annual range of temperature, mean maximum monthly precipitation and mean minimum monthly precipitation. Present day distributions and observed climates within China of the nearest living relatives of the fossil forms were used to find the range of a given variable in which a maximum number of taxa can coexist. Isotherm and isohyet maps for the early, middle and late Eocene were constructed. These illustrate regional changing patterns in thermal and precipitational gradients that may be interpreted as the beginnings of the modern Asian Monsoon system, and suggest that the uplift of parts of the Tibetan Plateau appear to have taken place by the middle to late Eocene. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Low-Temperature Supercapacitors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brandon, Erik J.; West, William C.; Smart, Marshall C.

2008-01-01

An effort to extend the low-temperature operational limit of supercapacitors is currently underway. At present, commercially available non-aqueous supercapacitors are rated for a minimum operating temperature of -40 C. A capability to operate at lower temperatures would be desirable for delivering power to systems that must operate in outer space or in the Polar Regions on Earth. Supercapacitors (also known as double-layer or electrochemical capacitors) offer a high power density (>1,000 W/kg) and moderate energy density (about 5 to 10 Wh/kg) technology for storing energy and delivering power. This combination of properties enables delivery of large currents for pulsed applications, or alternatively, smaller currents for low duty cycle applications. The mechanism of storage of electric charge in a supercapacitor -- at the electrical double-layer formed at a solid-electrode/liquid-electrolyte interface -- differs from that of a primary or secondary electrochemical cell (i.e., a battery) in such a manner as to impart a long cycle life (typically >10(exp 6) charge/discharge cycles).

The role of transients in the Mid Summer Drought over the Tropical Americas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herrera, E.; Magaña Rueda, V.; Caetano, E.

2013-05-01

The Mid Summer Drought (MSD) has raised the interested of those interested in regional climate dynamics since it appears to be a unique characteristic of the tropical Americas climate. The MSD corresponds to a relative minimum in summer precipitation between July and August in the Mesoamerican region. Several theories have been posed to explain its origin including the annual cycle march of the ITCZ, a teleconnection from the Asian monsoon region, or an air sea interaction process that relates the warm pools over the eastern Pacific and the Caribbean Sea. However, none of them has addressed the various characteristics of the MSD described by Magaña et al (1999) and Magaña and Caetano (2005). In the present paper, the role of the transient mean flow interaction over the Caribbean Sea is explored. The Caribbean Low Level Jet (CLLJ) and the transients interact in such a way that the CLLJ reaches maximum intensity when the MSD occurs. This is a period of minimum Perturbation Kinetic Energy in the region, suggesting that a CLLJ stronger than approximately 15 m/s tends to inhibit the amplification of eddies. Transients are crucial dynamic elements to produce precipitation over the Mexico and Central American region. Over the eastern Pacific warm pool, tropical convection and sea surface temperature are related by a sort of Clausius Clapeyron exponential equation. However, there are two branches for the relationship, one for the first maximum in tropical convection during June, and a second one during September, with a relative minimum corresponding to the MSD in July - August. The most interesting aspect of such patterns is that while the June exponential curves occurs at SST larger than 28°C, the curve corresponding to September takes place at lower SSTs, suggesting that transient activity in this period is necessary to enhance tropical convective activity during the latter part of the summer rains in the region. This is exactly the period when PKE increases over the Intra Americas Seas and the eastern tropical Pacific. A more comprehensive qualitative model is proposed to connect the various dynamical elements in the region that result in the MSD. This new model presents a more complicated picture of the regional climate dynamics than various theories have proposed.

Changes in minimum and maximum temperatures at the Pic du Midi in relation with humidity and cloudiness, 1882-1984

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dessens, J.; Bücher, A.

In an attempt to contribute to the investigation on a global climate change, a historical series of minimum and maximum temperature data at the Pic du Midi, a mountain observatory at 2862 m a.s.l. in the French Pyrenees, is updated after correction of a systematic deviation due to a relocation of the station in 1971. These data, which now cover the 1882-1984 period, are examined in parallel with humidity and cloud cover data for the same period. From the beginning to the end of this period, observations show that the mean night-time temperature has increased by 2.39° C/100 yr while the mean daytime temperature has decreased by 0.50° C/100 yr. In consequence, the mean annual diurnal temperature range has dropped by 36%/100 yr. The maximum seasonal decrease is 46%/100 yr in spring. Season-to-season and year-to-year inter-relationships between minimum temperature, maximum temperature, relative humidity and cloud cover suggest that the decrease in maximum temperature is related to a concomitant increase of 15%/100 yr in both relative humidity and cloud cover.

The Effects of Global Warming on Temperature and Precipitation Trends in Northeast America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Francis, F.

2013-12-01

The objective of this paper is to discuss the analysis of results in temperature and precipitation (rainfall) data and how they are affected by the theory of global warming in Northeast America. The topic was chosen because it will show the trends in temperature and precipitation and their relations to global warming. Data was collected from The Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN). The data range from years of 1973 to 2012. We were able to calculate the yearly and monthly regress to estimate the relationship of variables found in the individual sources. With the use of specially designed software, analysis and manual calculations we are able to give a visualization of these trends in precipitation and temperature and to question if these trends are due to the theory of global warming. With the Calculation of the trends in slope we were able to interpret the changes in minimum and maximum temperature and precipitation. Precipitation had a 9.5 % increase over the past forty years, while maximum temperature increased 1.9 %, a greater increase is seen in minimum temperature of 3.3 % was calculated over the years. The trends in precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature is statistically significant at a 95% level.

Climate perceptions of local communities validated through scientific signals in Sikkim Himalaya, India.

PubMed

Sharma, R K; Shrestha, D G

2016-10-01

Sikkim, a tiny Himalayan state situated in the north-eastern region of India, records limited research on the climate change. Understanding the changes in climate based on the perceptions of local communities can provide important insights for the preparedness against the unprecedented consequences of climate change. A total of 228 households in 12 different villages of Sikkim, India, were interviewed using eight climate change indicators. The results from the public opinions showed a significant increase in temperature compared to a decade earlier, winters are getting warmer, water springs are drying up, change in concept of spring-water recharge (locally known as Mul Phutnu), changes in spring season, low crop yields, incidences of mosquitoes during winter, and decrease in rainfall in last 10 years. In addition, study also showed significant positive correlations of increase in temperature with other climate change indicators viz. spring-water recharge concept (R (2) = 0.893), warmer winter (R (2) = 0.839), drying up of water springs (R (2) = 0.76), changes in spring season (R (2) = 0.68), low crop yields (R (2) = 0.68), decrease in rainfall (R (2) = 0.63), and incidences of mosquitoes in winter (R (2) = 0.50). The air temperature for two meteorological stations of Sikkim indicated statistically significant increasing trend in mean minimum temperature and mean minimum winter temperature (DJF). The observed climate change is consistent with the people perceptions. This information can help in planning specific adaptation strategies to cope with the impacts of climate change by framing village-level action plan.

Semidiurnal tidal activity of the middle atmosphere at mid-latitudes derived from O2 atmospheric and OH(6-2) airglow SATI observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

López-González, M. J.; Rodríguez, E.; García-Comas, M.; López-Puertas, M.; Olivares, I.; Ruiz-Bueno, J. A.; Shepherd, M. G.; Shepherd, G. G.; Sargoytchev, S.

2017-11-01

In this paper, we investigate the tidal activity in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere region at 370N using OH Meinel and O2 atmospheric airglow observations from 1998 to 2015. The observations were taken with a Spectral Airglow Temperature Imager (SATI) installed at Sierra Nevada Observatory (SNO) (37.060N, 3.380W) at 2900 m height. From these observations a seasonal dependence of the amplitudes of the semidiurnal tide is inferred. The maximum tidal amplitude occurs in winter and the minimum in summer. The vertically averaged rotational temperatures and vertically integrated volume emission rate (rotational temperatures and intensities here in after), from the O2 atmospheric band measurements and the rotational temperature derived from OH Meinel band measurements reach the maximum amplitude about 1-4 h after midnight during almost all the year except in August-September where the maximum is found 2-4 h earlier. The amplitude of the tide in the OH intensity reaches the minimum near midnight in midwinter, then it is progressively delayed until 4:00 LT in August-September, and from there on it moves again forward towards midnight. The mean Krassovsky numbers for OH and O2 emissions are 5.9 ±1.8 and 5.6 ±1.0, respectively, with negative Krassovsky phases for almost all the year, indicating an upward energy transport. The mean vertical wavelengths for the vertical tidal propagation derived from OH and O2 emissions are 35 ±20 km and 33 ±18 km, respectively. The vertical wavelengths together with the phase shift in the temperature derived from both airglow emissions indicate that these airglow emission layers are separated by 7 ±3 km, on average.

Anthropogenically-induced changes in temperatures and implications for water resources in the western United States.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonfils, C.; Santer, B.; Pierce, D.; Hidalgo, H.; Bala, G.; Dash, T.; Barnett, T.; Cayan, D.; Doutriaux, C.; Wood, A.; Mirin, A.; Nosawa, T.

2008-12-01

Large changes in the hydrology of the western United States have been observed since the mid-20th century. These include a reduction in the amount of precipitation arriving as snow, a decline in snowpack at low and mid-elevations, and a shift towards earlier arrival of both snowmelt and the center of mass of streamflows. In order to project future water supply reliability, it is crucial to obtain a better understanding of the underlying cause or causes for these long-term changes. A regional warming is often posited as the cause of these changes, without formal testing of different competitive explanations for the warming. In this study, we perform a rigorous detection and attribution analysis to determine the causes of the late winter/early spring changes in hydrologically-relevant temperature variables over mountain ranges of the western U.S. Natural internal climate variability, as estimated from two long control climate model simulations, is insufficient to explain the rapid increase in daily minimum and maximum temperatures, the sharp decline in frost days, and the rise in degree-days above 0°C (a simple proxy for temperature-driven snowmelt). The observations are however consistent with climate simulations that include the combined effects of anthropogenic greenhouse gases and aerosols. We also address the benefits of conducting multivariate versus univariate detection and attribution analysis, with, for instance, a focus on changes in snowmelt, streamflow peaks and minimum temperature. With models of climate change unanimously projecting an acceleration of warming in the western United States, serious implications for water infrastructures and water supply sustainability can be expected, increasing already the necessity of developing adaptation measures in water resources management.

Plant Distribution Data Show Broader Climatic Limits than Expert-Based Climatic Tolerance Estimates

PubMed Central

Curtis, Caroline A.; Bradley, Bethany A.

2016-01-01

Background Although increasingly sophisticated environmental measures are being applied to species distributions models, the focus remains on using climatic data to provide estimates of habitat suitability. Climatic tolerance estimates based on expert knowledge are available for a wide range of plants via the USDA PLANTS database. We aim to test how climatic tolerance inferred from plant distribution records relates to tolerance estimated by experts. Further, we use this information to identify circumstances when species distributions are more likely to approximate climatic tolerance. Methods We compiled expert knowledge estimates of minimum and maximum precipitation and minimum temperature tolerance for over 1800 conservation plant species from the ‘plant characteristics’ information in the USDA PLANTS database. We derived climatic tolerance from distribution data downloaded from the Global Biodiversity and Information Facility (GBIF) and corresponding climate from WorldClim. We compared expert-derived climatic tolerance to empirical estimates to find the difference between their inferred climate niches (ΔCN), and tested whether ΔCN was influenced by growth form or range size. Results Climate niches calculated from distribution data were significantly broader than expert-based tolerance estimates (Mann-Whitney p values << 0.001). The average plant could tolerate 24 mm lower minimum precipitation, 14 mm higher maximum precipitation, and 7° C lower minimum temperatures based on distribution data relative to expert-based tolerance estimates. Species with larger ranges had greater ΔCN for minimum precipitation and minimum temperature. For maximum precipitation and minimum temperature, forbs and grasses tended to have larger ΔCN while grasses and trees had larger ΔCN for minimum precipitation. Conclusion Our results show that distribution data are consistently broader than USDA PLANTS experts’ knowledge and likely provide more robust estimates of climatic tolerance, especially for widespread forbs and grasses. These findings suggest that widely available expert-based climatic tolerance estimates underrepresent species’ fundamental niche and likely fail to capture the realized niche. PMID:27870859

Hydrologic and climatic changes in three small watersheds after timber harvest.

Treesearch

W.B. Fowler; J.D. Helvey; E.N. Felix

1987-01-01

No significant increases in annual water yield were shown for three small watersheds in northeastern Oregon after shelterwood cutting (30-percent canopy removal, 50-percent basal area removal) and clearcutting. Average maximum air temperature increased after harvest and average minimum air temperature decreased by up to 2.6 °C. Both maximum and minimum water...

Modelling dengue fever risk in the State of Yucatan, Mexico using regional-scale satellite-derived sea surface temperature.

PubMed

Laureano-Rosario, Abdiel E; Garcia-Rejon, Julian E; Gomez-Carro, Salvador; Farfan-Ale, Jose A; Muller-Karger, Frank E

2017-08-01

Accurately predicting vector-borne diseases, such as dengue fever, is essential for communities worldwide. Changes in environmental parameters such as precipitation, air temperature, and humidity are known to influence dengue fever dynamics. Furthermore, previous studies have shown how oceanographic variables, such as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-related sea surface temperature from the Pacific Ocean, influences dengue fever in the Americas. However, literature is lacking on the use of regional-scale satellite-derived sea surface temperature (SST) to assess its relationship with dengue fever in coastal areas. Data on confirmed dengue cases, demographics, precipitation, and air temperature were collected. Incidence of weekly dengue cases was examined. Stepwise multiple regression analyses (AIC model selection) were used to assess which environmental variables best explained increased dengue incidence rates. SST, minimum air temperature, precipitation, and humidity substantially explained 42% of the observed variation (r 2 =0.42). Infectious diseases are characterized by the influence of past cases on current cases and results show that previous dengue cases alone explained 89% of the variation. Ordinary least-squares analyses showed a positive trend of 0.20±0.03°C in SST from 2006 to 2015. An important element of this study is to help develop strategic recommendations for public health officials in Mexico by providing a simple early warning capability for dengue incidence. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Recurrence quantification analysis of extremes of maximum and minimum temperature patterns for different climate scenarios in the Mesochora catchment in Central-Western Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panagoulia, Dionysia; Vlahogianni, Eleni I.

2018-06-01

A methodological framework based on nonlinear recurrence analysis is proposed to examine the historical data evolution of extremes of maximum and minimum daily mean areal temperature patterns over time under different climate scenarios. The methodology is based on both historical data and atmospheric General Circulation Model (GCM) produced climate scenarios for the periods 1961-2000 and 2061-2100 which correspond to 1 × CO2 and 2 × CO2 scenarios. Historical data were derived from the actual daily observations coupled with atmospheric circulation patterns (CPs). The dynamics of the temperature was reconstructed in the phase-space from the time series of temperatures. The statistically comparing different temperature patterns were based on some discriminating statistics obtained by the Recurrence Quantification Analysis (RQA). Moreover, the bootstrap method of Schinkel et al. (2009) was adopted to calculate the confidence bounds of RQA parameters based on a structural preserving resampling. The overall methodology was implemented to the mountainous Mesochora catchment in Central-Western Greece. The results reveal substantial similarities between the historical maximum and minimum daily mean areal temperature statistical patterns and their confidence bounds, as well as the maximum and minimum temperature patterns in evolution under the 2 × CO2 scenario. A significant variability and non-stationary behaviour characterizes all climate series analyzed. Fundamental differences are produced from the historical and maximum 1 × CO2 scenarios, the maximum 1 × CO2 and minimum 1 × CO2 scenarios, as well as the confidence bounds for the two CO2 scenarios. The 2 × CO2 scenario reflects the strongest shifts in intensity, duration and frequency in temperature patterns. Such transitions can help the scientists and policy makers to understand the effects of extreme temperature changes on water resources, economic development, and health of ecosystems and hence to proceed to effective proactive management of extreme phenomena. The impacts of the findings on the predictability of the extreme daily mean areal temperature patterns are also commented.

Phenological patterns of flowering across biogeographical regions of Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Templ, Barbara; Templ, Matthias; Filzmoser, Peter; Lehoczky, Annamária; Bakšienè, Eugenija; Fleck, Stefan; Gregow, Hilppa; Hodzic, Sabina; Kalvane, Gunta; Kubin, Eero; Palm, Vello; Romanovskaja, Danuta; Vucˇ´, Višnja; žust, Ana; Czúcz, Bálint

2017-07-01

Long-term changes of plant phenological phases determined by complex interactions of environmental factors are in the focus of recent climate impact research. There is a lack of studies on the comparison of biogeographical regions in Europe in terms of plant responses to climate. We examined the flowering phenology of plant species to identify the spatio-temporal patterns in their responses to environmental variables over the period 1970-2010. Data were collected from 12 countries along a 3000-km-long, North-South transect from northern to eastern Central Europe. Biogeographical regions of Europe were covered from Finland to Macedonia. Robust statistical methods were used to determine the most influential factors driving the changes of the beginning of flowering dates. Significant species-specific advancements in plant flowering onsets within the Continental (3 to 8.3 days), Alpine (2 to 3.8 days) and by highest magnitude in the Boreal biogeographical regions (2.2 to 9.6 days per decades) were found, while less pronounced responses were detected in the Pannonian and Mediterranean regions. While most of the other studies only use mean temperature in the models, we show that also the distribution of minimum and maximum temperatures are reasonable to consider as explanatory variable. Not just local (e.g. temperature) but large scale (e.g. North Atlantic Oscillation) climate factors, as well as altitude and latitude play significant role in the timing of flowering across biogeographical regions of Europe. Our analysis gave evidences that species show a delay in the timing of flowering with an increase in latitude (between the geographical coordinates of 40.9 and 67.9), and an advance with changing climate. The woody species (black locust and small-leaved lime) showed stronger advancements in their timing of flowering than the herbaceous species (dandelion, lily of the valley). In later decades (1991-2010), more pronounced phenological change was detected than during the earlier years (1970-1990), which indicates the increased influence of human induced higher spring temperatures in the late twentieth century.

Magnetic Reconnection in Strongly Magnetized Regions of the Low Solar Chromosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ni, Lei; Lukin, Vyacheslav S.; Murphy, Nicholas A.; Lin, Jun

2018-01-01

Magnetic reconnection in strongly magnetized regions around the temperature minimum region of the low solar atmosphere is studied by employing MHD-based simulations of a partially ionized plasma within a reactive 2.5D multi-fluid model. It is shown that in the absence of magnetic nulls in a low β plasma, the ionized and neutral fluid flows are well-coupled throughout the reconnection region. However, non-equilibrium ionization–recombination dynamics play a critical role in determining the structure of the reconnection region, leading to much lower temperature increases and a faster magnetic reconnection rate as compared to simulations that assume plasma to be in ionization–recombination equilibrium. The rate of ionization of the neutral component of the plasma is always faster than recombination within the current sheet region even when the initial plasma β is as high as {β }0=1.46. When the reconnecting magnetic field is in excess of a kilogauss and the plasma β is lower than 0.0145, the initially weakly ionized plasmas can become fully ionized within the reconnection region and the current sheet can be strongly heated to above 2.5× {10}4 K, even as most of the collisionally dissipated magnetic energy is radiated away. The Hall effect increases the reconnection rate slightly, but in the absence of magnetic nulls it does not result in significant asymmetries or change the characteristics of the reconnection current sheet down to meter scales.

An experimental investigation of two-dimensional thrust augmenting ejectors, part 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bernal, L.; Sarohia, V.

1984-01-01

The flow-field within a two-dimensional thrust augmenting ejector has been documented experimentally. Results are presented on the mean velocity field and the turbulent correlations by Laser Doppler Velocimeter, surface pressure distribution, surface temperature distribution, and thrust performance for two shroud geometries. The maximum primary nozzle pressure ratio tested was 3.0. The tests were conducted at primary nozzle temperature ratios of 1.0, 1.8 and 2.7. Two ejector characteristic lengths have been identified based on the dynamics of the ejector flow field, i.e., a minimum length L sub m below which no significant mixing occurs, and a critical length L sub c associated with the development of U'V' correlation in the ejector. These characteristic lengths divide the ejector flow field into three distinctive regions: the entrance region where there is no direct interaction between the primary flow and the ejector shroud; the interaction region where there is an increased momentum of induced flow near the shroud surface; and a pipe flow region characterized by an increased skin friction where x is the distance downstream from the ejector inlet. The effect of the coflowing induced flow has been shown to produce inside the ejector a centerline velocity that has increased over the free-jet data.

Assessment of future extreme climate events over the Porto wine Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Viceto, Carolina; Cardoso, Susana; Marta-Almeida, Martinho; Gorodetskaya, Irina; Rocha, Alfredo

2017-04-01

The Douro Demarcated Region (DDR) is a wine region, in the northern Portugal, recognized for the Porto wine, which is responsible for more than 60% of the total value of national wine exportations. Since the viticulture is highly dependent on weather/climate patterns, the global warming is expected to affect the areas suitable to the growth of a certain variety of grape, its production and quality. This highlights the need of regional studies that assess the future climate changes effects in the vineyard, which might allow an early adjustment. We explore future climate change in the DDR region using a high-resolution regional climate model for Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) forced by the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model - low resolution (MPI-ESM-LR). Two future periods have been simulated using the emission scenario RCP8.5 - for the mid- (2046-2065) and late 21st century (2081-2100) - and compared to a reference period (1986-2005). The RCP8.5 is a "baseline" scenario without any climate mitigation and corresponds to the pathway with the highest greenhouse gas emissions compared to other scenarios developed by the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change. Our regional WRF implementation uses three online-nested domains with increasing resolution at a downscaling ratio of three. The coarser domain of 81-km resolution covers part of the North Atlantic Ocean and most of the Europe. The innermost 9-km horizontal resolution domain includes the Iberian Peninsula, a portion of Northern Africa and the adjacent part of the Atlantic Ocean and Mediterranean Sea. Our study uses this 9-km resolution domain and focuses on a confined area, which comprises the DDR. Such dynamical downscaling approach gives an advantage to assess climate effects on the DDR region, where the high horizontal resolution allows including effects of the oceanic coastline, local riverbeds and complex topography. The climatology of the DDR region determines the more suitable wine variety to be produced (Porto and Douro wine), while climate variability affects the annual productivity and quality of the grape harvest. Our study investigates changes in the extreme climate events in the future model runs, through a set of climate change indicators defined by the WRCP's Expert Team in Climate Change Detection and Indices, which uses variables such as daily maximum and minimum temperatures and precipitation amounts. Furthermore, we explore heat waves and their properties (duration, intensity and recovery factor). The analysis shows an increase of the mean temperature in the DDR higher than 2°C by the mid-21st century and 4.5°C by the end of the century, relatively to the reference period. Moreover, we found a major predisposition towards higher values of minimum and maximum daily temperatures and a decrease in the total precipitation during both future periods. These preliminary results indicate increased climatic stress on the DDR wine production and increased vulnerability of the wine varieties in this region.

Diurnal and Seasonal Variations in the Net Ecosystem CO2 Exchange of a Pasture in the Three-River Source Region of the Qinghai−Tibetan Plateau

PubMed Central

Wang, Bin; Jin, Haiyan; Li, Qi; Chen, Dongdong; Zhao, Liang; Tang, Yanhong; Kato, Tomomichi; Gu, Song

2017-01-01

Carbon dioxide (CO2) exchange between the atmosphere and grassland ecosystems is very important for the global carbon balance. To assess the CO2 flux and its relationship to environmental factors, the eddy covariance method was used to evaluate the diurnal cycle and seasonal pattern of the net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) of a cultivated pasture in the Three-River Source Region (TRSR) on the Qinghai−Tibetan Plateau from January 1 to December 31, 2008. The diurnal variations in the NEE and ecosystem respiration (Re) during the growing season exhibited single-peak patterns, the maximum and minimum CO2 uptake observed during the noon hours and night; and the maximum and minimum Re took place in the afternoon and early morning, respectively. The minimum hourly NEE rate and the maximum hourly Re rate were −7.89 and 5.03 μmol CO2 m−2 s−1, respectively. The NEE and Re showed clear seasonal variations, with lower values in winter and higher values in the peak growth period. The highest daily values for C uptake and Re were observed on August 12 (−2.91 g C m−2 d−1) and July 28 (5.04 g C m−2 day−1), respectively. The annual total NEE and Re were −140.01 and 403.57 g C m−2 year−1, respectively. The apparent quantum yield (α) was −0.0275 μmol μmol−1 for the entire growing period, and the α values for the pasture’s light response curve varied with the leaf area index (LAI), air temperature (Ta), soil water content (SWC) and vapor pressure deficit (VPD). Piecewise regression results indicated that the optimum Ta and VPD for the daytime NEE were 14.1°C and 0.65 kPa, respectively. The daytime NEE decreased with increasing SWC, and the temperature sensitivity of respiration (Q10) was 3.0 during the growing season, which was controlled by the SWC conditions. Path analysis suggested that the soil temperature at a depth of 5 cm (Tsoil) was the most important environmental factor affecting daily variations in NEE during the growing season, and the photosynthetic photon flux density (PPFD) was the major limiting factor for this cultivated pasture. PMID:28129406

Modeling impacts of climate change on the potential distribution of the carcinogenic liver fluke, Opisthorchis viverrini, in Thailand.

PubMed

Suwannatrai, A; Pratumchart, K; Suwannatrai, K; Thinkhamrop, K; Chaiyos, J; Kim, C S; Suwanweerakamtorn, R; Boonmars, T; Wongsaroj, T; Sripa, B

2017-01-01

Global climate change is now regarded as imposing a significant threat of enhancing transmission of parasitic diseases. Maximum entropy species distribution modeling (MaxEnt) was used to explore how projected climate change could affect the potential distribution of the carcinogenic liver fluke, Opisthorchis viverrini, in Thailand. A range of climate variables was used: the Hadley Global Environment Model 2-Earth System (HadGEM2-ES) climate change model and also the IPCC scenarios A2a for 2050 and 2070. Occurrence data from surveys conducted in 2009 and 2014 were obtained from the Department of Disease Control, Ministry of Public Health, Thailand. The MaxEnt model performed better than random for O. viverrini with training AUC values greater than 0.8 under current and future climatic conditions. The current distribution of O. viverrini is significantly affected by precipitation and minimum temperature. According to current conditions, parts of Thailand climatically suitable for O. viverrini are mostly in the northeast and north, but the parasite is largely absent from southern Thailand. Under future climate change scenarios, the distribution of O. viverrini in 2050 should be significantly affected by precipitation, maximum temperature, and mean temperature of the wettest quarter, whereas in 2070, significant factors are likely to be precipitation during the coldest quarter, maximum, and minimum temperatures. Maps of predicted future distribution revealed a drastic decrease in presence of O. viverrini in the northeast region. The information gained from this study should be a useful reference for implementing long-term prevention and control strategies for O. viverrini in Thailand.

Climatic variability leads to later seasonal flowering of Floridian plants.

PubMed

Von Holle, Betsy; Wei, Yun; Nickerson, David

2010-07-21

Understanding species responses to global change will help predict shifts in species distributions as well as aid in conservation. Changes in the timing of seasonal activities of organisms over time may be the most responsive and easily observable indicator of environmental changes associated with global climate change. It is unknown how global climate change will affect species distributions and developmental events in subtropical ecosystems or if climate change will differentially favor nonnative species. Contrary to previously observed trends for earlier flowering onset of plant species with increasing spring temperatures from mid and higher latitudes, we document a trend for delayed seasonal flowering among plants in Florida. Additionally, there were few differences in reproductive responses by native and nonnative species to climatic changes. We argue that plants in Florida have different reproductive cues than those from more northern climates. With global change, minimum temperatures have become more variable within the temperate-subtropical zone that occurs across the peninsula and this variation is strongly associated with delayed flowering among Florida plants. Our data suggest that climate change varies by region and season and is not a simple case of species responding to consistently increasing temperatures across the region. Research on climate change impacts need to be extended outside of the heavily studied higher latitudes to include subtropical and tropical systems in order to properly understand the complexity of regional and seasonal differences of climate change on species responses.

On the Stability of Liquid Water on Present Day Mars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Haberle, Robert M.; DeVincenzi, Donald L. (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

The mean annual surface pressure and temperature on present day Mars do not allow for the long term stability of liquid water on the surface. However, theoretical arguments have been advanced that suggest liquid water could form in transient events even though it would not be in equilibrium with the environment. Using a Mars General Circulation Model, we calculate where and for how long the surface pressure and surface temperature meet the minimum requirements for this metastability of liquid water. These requirements are that the pressure and temperature must be above the triple point of water, but below its boiling point. We find that there are five regions on Mars where these requirements are periodically satisfied: in the near equatorial regions of Amazonis, Arabia, and Elysium, and in the Hellas and Argyre impact basins. Whether liquid water ever forms in these regions depends on the availability of ice and heat, and on the evaporation rate. The latter is poorly understood for low pressure CO2 environments, but is likely to be so high that melting occurs rarely, if at all. However, in the relatively recent past, surface pressures may have been higher than they are today perhaps by as much as a factor of 2 or 3. Under these circumstances melting would have been easier to achieve. We plan to undertake laboratory experiments to better understand the potential for melting in low pressure environments.

Correlations of catalytic combustor performance parameters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bulzan, D. L.

1978-01-01

Correlations for combustion efficiency percentage drop and the minimum required adiabatic reaction temperature necessary to meet emissions goals of 13.6 g CO/kg fuel and 1.64 g HC/kg fuel are presented. Combustion efficiency was found to be a function of the cell density, cell circumference, reactor length, reference velocity, and adiabatic reaction temperature. The percentage pressure drop at an adiabatic reaction temperature of 1450 K was found to be proportional to the reference velocity to the 1.5 power and to the reactor length. It is inversely proportional to the pressure, cell hydraulic diameter, and fractional open area. The minimum required adiabatic reaction temperature was found to increase with reference velocity and decrease with cell circumference, cell density and reactor length. A catalyst factor was introduced into the correlations to account for differences between catalysts. Combustion efficiency, the percentage pressure drop, and the minimum required adiabatic reaction temperature were found to be a function of the catalyst factor. The data was from a 12 cm-diameter test rig with noble metal reactors using propane fuel at an inlet temperature of 800 K.

Seasonal precipitation forecasting for the Melbourne region using a Self-Organizing Maps approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pidoto, Ross; Wallner, Markus; Haberlandt, Uwe

2017-04-01

The Melbourne region experiences highly variable inter-annual rainfall. For close to a decade during the 2000s, below average rainfall seriously affected the environment, water supplies and agriculture. A seasonal rainfall forecasting model for the Melbourne region based on the novel approach of a Self-Organizing Map has been developed and tested for its prediction performance. Predictor variables at varying lead times were first assessed for inclusion within the model by calculating their importance via Random Forests. Predictor variables tested include the climate indices SOI, DMI and N3.4, in addition to gridded global sea surface temperature data. Five forecasting models were developed: an annual model and four seasonal models, each individually optimized for performance through Pearson's correlation r and the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency. The annual model showed a prediction performance of r = 0.54 and NSE = 0.14. The best seasonal model was for spring, with r = 0.61 and NSE = 0.31. Autumn was the worst performing seasonal model. The sea surface temperature data contributed fewer predictor variables compared to climate indices. Most predictor variables were supplied at a minimum lead, however some predictors were found at lead times of up to a year.

Atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghosh, D.; Mitra, S. K.

2014-05-01

This paper investigates the high-temperature corrosion behavior of microstructurally different regions of the weldment of 9 Cr-1 Mo steel used in thermal power plant boiler in SO2 + O2 environment. The weldment is produced by tungsten inert gas welding method, and the different regions of the weldment (weld metal, heat-affected zone, and base metal) are exposed in SO2 + O2 (ratio 2:1) environment at 973 K for 120 h. The reaction kinetics and corrosion growth rate of different regions of weldment in isothermal condition are evaluated. The post corroded scales of the different specimens are studied in SEM, EDS, and XRD. The results indicate that the weld metal shows higher corrosion rate followed by HAZ and base metal. The higher rate of corrosion of weldmetal is mainly attributed to the least protective inner scale of Cr2O3 with minimum Cr Content. This is due to the formation of delta ferrite, which leads to the precipitation of the Cr-based secondary phases and depletes the free Cr from the matrix. The thermal cycles during welding at high temperature are favorable for the formation of delta ferrite. On the other hand, in absence of delta ferrite, the base metal and HAZ regions of the weldment show lower corrosion rate than weld metal. The difference in corrosion rate in the three regions of the weldment is supplemented by post-corroded scale characterizations.

High Tensile Strength Amalgams for In-Space Fabrication and Repair

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grugel, Richard N.

2006-01-01

Amalgams are well known for their use in dental practice as a tooth filling material. They have a number of useful attributes that include room temperature fabrication, corrosion resistance, dimensional stability, and very good compressive strength. These properties well serve dental needs but, unfortunately, amalgams have extremely poor tensile strength, a feature that severely limits other potential applications. Improved material properties (strength and temperature) of amalgams may have application to the freeform fabrication of repairs or parts that might be necessary during an extended space mission. Advantages would include, but are not limited to: the ability to produce complex parts, a minimum number of processing steps, minimum crew interaction, high yield - minimum wasted material, reduced gravity compatibility, minimum final finishing, safety, and minimum power consumption. The work presented here shows how the properties of amalgams can be improved by changing particle geometries in conjunction with novel engineering metals.

Temperature Inversions and Nighttime Convection in the Martian Tropics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hinson, D. P.; Spiga, A.; Lewis, S.; Tellmann, S.; Paetzold, M.; Asmar, S. W.; Häusler, B.

2013-12-01

We are using radio occultation measurements from Mars Express, Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter, and Mars Global Surveyor to characterize the diurnal cycle in the lowest scale height above the surface. We focus on northern spring and summer, using observations from 4 Martian years at local times of 4-5 and 15-17 h. We supplement the observations with results obtained from large-eddy simulations and through data assimilation by the UK spectral version of the LMD Mars Global Circulation Model. We previously investigated the depth of the daytime convective boundary layer (CBL) and its variations with surface elevation and surface properties. We are now examining unusual aspects of the temperature structure observed at night. Most important, predawn profiles in the Tharsis region contain an unexpected layer of neutral static stability at pressures of 200-300 Pa with a depth of 4-5 km. The mixed layer is bounded above by a midlevel temperature inversion and below by another strong inversion adjacent to the surface. The sharp temperature minimum at the base of the midlevel inversion suggests the presence of a thin water ice cloud layer, with the further implication that radiative cooling at cloud level can induce convective activity at lower altitudes. Conversely, nighttime profiles in Amazonis show no sign of a midlevel inversion or a detached mixed layer. These regional variations in the nighttime temperature structure appear to arise in part from large-scale variations in topography, which have several notable effects. First, the CBL is much deeper in the Tharsis region than in Amazonis, owing to a roughly 6-km difference in surface elevation. Second, large-eddy simulations show that daytime convection is not only deeper above Tharsis but also considerably more intense than it is in Amazonis. Finally, the daytime surface temperatures are comparable in the two regions, so that Tharsis acts as an elevated heat source throughout the CBL. These topographic effects are expected to enhance the vertical mixing of water vapor above elevated terrain, which might lead to the formation and regional confinement of nighttime clouds.

A mechanism for deep chromospheric heating during solar flares

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Machado, M. E.; Emslie, A. G.; Mauas, P. J.

1986-01-01

The role of the negative hydrogen ion, H(-), in the energy balance of the deep solar chromosphere is reexamined and it is found, in contrast with earlier authors, that H(-) is a source of heating at these levels. The response of this region to an ionizing flux of flare-associated UV radiation (1500 to 1900 A) is then addressed: it is found that the excess ionization of Si to Si(+) increases the local electron number density considerably, since most species are largely neutral at deep chromospheric levels. This in turn increases the electron-hydrogen atom association rate, the H(-) abundance, and the rate of absorption of photospheric radiation by this ion. It is found that the excess absorption by this process may lead to a substantial temperature enhancement at temperature minimum levels during flares.

Ecological covariates based predictive model of malaria risk in the state of Chhattisgarh, India.

PubMed

Kumar, Rajesh; Dash, Chinmaya; Rani, Khushbu

2017-09-01

Malaria being an endemic disease in the state of Chhattisgarh and ecologically dependent mosquito-borne disease, the study is intended to identify the ecological covariates of malaria risk in districts of the state and to build a suitable predictive model based on those predictors which could assist developing a weather based early warning system. This secondary data based analysis used one month lagged district level malaria positive cases as response variable and ecological covariates as independent variables which were tested with fixed effect panelled negative binomial regression models. Interactions among the covariates were explored using two way factorial interaction in the model. Although malaria risk in the state possesses perennial characteristics, higher parasitic incidence was observed during the rainy and winter seasons. The univariate analysis indicated that the malaria incidence risk was statistically significant associated with rainfall, maximum humidity, minimum temperature, wind speed, and forest cover ( p  < 0.05). The efficient predictive model include the forest cover [IRR-1.033 (1.024-1.042)], maximum humidity [IRR-1.016 (1.013-1.018)], and two-way factorial interactions between district specific averaged monthly minimum temperature and monthly minimum temperature, monthly minimum temperature was statistically significant [IRR-1.44 (1.231-1.695)] whereas the interaction term has a protective effect [IRR-0.982 (0.974-0.990)] against malaria infections. Forest cover, maximum humidity, minimum temperature and wind speed emerged as potential covariates to be used in predictive models for modelling the malaria risk in the state which could be efficiently used for early warning systems in the state.

Climate Extreme Events over Northern Eurasia in Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bulygina, O.; Korshunova, N. N.; Razuvaev, V. N.; Groisman, P. Y.

2014-12-01

During the period of widespread instrumental observations in Northern Eurasia, the annual surface air temperature has increased by 1.5°C. Close to the north in the Arctic Ocean, the late summer sea ice extent has decreased by 40% providing a near-infinite source of water vapor for the dry Arctic atmosphere in the early cold season months. The contemporary sea ice changes are especially visible in the Eastern Hemisphere All these factors affect the change extreme events. Daily and sub-daily data of 940 stations to analyze variations in the space time distribution of extreme temperatures, precipitation, and wind over Russia were used. Changing in number of days with thaw over Russia was described. The total seasonal numbers of days, when daily surface air temperatures (wind, precipitation) were found to be above (below) selected thresholds, were used as indices of climate extremes. Changing in difference between maximum and minimum temperature (DTR) may produce a variety of effects on biological systems. All values falling within the intervals ranged from the lowest percentile to the 5th percentile and from the 95th percentile to the highest percentile for the time period of interest were considered as daily extremes. The number of days, N, when daily temperatures (wind, precipitation, DTR) were within the above mentioned intervals, was determined for the seasons of each year. Linear trends in the number of days were calculated for each station and for quasi-homogeneous climatic regions. Regional analysis of extreme events was carried out using quasi-homogeneous climatic regions. Maps (climatology, trends) are presented mostly for visualization purposes. Differences in regional characteristics of extreme events are accounted for over a large extent of the Russian territory and variety of its physical and geographical conditions. The number of days with maximum temperatures higher than the 95% percentile has increased in most of Russia and decreased in Siberia in spring and autumn. Reducing the number of days with extremely low air temperatures dominated in all seasons. At the same time, the number of days with abnormally low air temperatures has increased in Middle Volga region and south of Western Siberia. In most parts of European Russia observed increase in the number of days with heavy snowfalls.

Comparison of the temperature-mortality relationship in foreign born and native born died in France between 2000 and 2009

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mercereau, Luc; Todd, Nicolas; Rey, Gregoire; Valleron, Alain-Jacques

2017-10-01

The daily temperature-mortality relationship is typically U shaped. The temperature of minimum mortality (MMT) has been shown to vary in space (higher at lower latitudes) and time (higher in recent periods). This indicates human populations adapt to their local environment. The pace of this adaptation is unknown. The objective of this study was to investigate the differences in the temperature-mortality relationship in continental France between foreign born and natives. Source data were the 5,273,005 death certificates of individuals living in continental France between 2000 and 2009 at the time of their death. Foreign-born deaths ( N = 573,384) were matched 1:1 with a native-born death based on date of birth, sex, and place of death. Four regions of France based on similarity of their temperatures profiles were defined by unsupervised clustering. For each of these four regions, variations of all causes mortality with season and temperature of the day were modeled and compared between four groups of foreign born (Maghreb, sub-Saharan Africa, Southern Europe, and Northern Europe) and matched groups of natives. Overall, the temperature-mortality relationship and MMT were close in foreign born and in native born: The only difference between foreign born and native born concerned the attributable mortality to cold, found in several instances larger in foreign born. There are little differences in France between the temperature-mortality relationships in native born and in foreign born. This supports the hypothesis of an adaptation of these populations to the temperature patterns of continental France, which for those born in Africa differ markedly from the climatic pattern of their birth country.

Daily air temperature interpolated at high spatial resolution over a large mountainous region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dodson, R.; Marks, D.

1997-01-01

Two methods are investigated for interpolating daily minimum and maximum air temperatures (Tmin and Tmax) at a 1 km spatial resolution over a large mountainous region (830 000 km2) in the U.S. Pacific Northwest. The methods were selected because of their ability to (1) account for the effect of elevation on temperature and (2) efficiently handle large volumes of data. The first method, the neutral stability algorithm (NSA), used the hydrostatic and potential temperature equations to convert measured temperatures and elevations to sea-level potential temperatures. The potential temperatures were spatially interpolated using an inverse-squared-distance algorithm and then mapped to the elevation surface of a digital elevation model (DEM). The second method, linear lapse rate adjustment (LLRA), involved the same basic procedure as the NSA, but used a constant linear lapse rate instead of the potential temperature equation. Cross-validation analyses were performed using the NSA and LLRA methods to interpolate Tmin and Tmax each day for the 1990 water year, and the methods were evaluated based on mean annual interpolation error (IE). The NSA method showed considerable bias for sites associated with vertical extrapolation. A correction based on climate station/grid cell elevation differences was developed and found to successfully remove the bias. The LLRA method was tested using 3 lapse rates, none of which produced a serious extrapolation bias. The bias-adjusted NSA and the 3 LLRA methods produced almost identical levels of accuracy (mean absolute errors between 1.2 and 1.3??C), and produced very similar temperature surfaces based on image difference statistics. In terms of accuracy, speed, and ease of implementation, LLRA was chosen as the best of the methods tested.

Comparison of the temperature-mortality relationship in foreign born and native born died in France between 2000 and 2009.

PubMed

Mercereau, Luc; Todd, Nicolas; Rey, Gregoire; Valleron, Alain-Jacques

2017-10-01

The daily temperature-mortality relationship is typically U shaped. The temperature of minimum mortality (MMT) has been shown to vary in space (higher at lower latitudes) and time (higher in recent periods). This indicates human populations adapt to their local environment. The pace of this adaptation is unknown. The objective of this study was to investigate the differences in the temperature-mortality relationship in continental France between foreign born and natives. Source data were the 5,273,005 death certificates of individuals living in continental France between 2000 and 2009 at the time of their death. Foreign-born deaths (N = 573,384) were matched 1:1 with a native-born death based on date of birth, sex, and place of death. Four regions of France based on similarity of their temperatures profiles were defined by unsupervised clustering. For each of these four regions, variations of all causes mortality with season and temperature of the day were modeled and compared between four groups of foreign born (Maghreb, sub-Saharan Africa, Southern Europe, and Northern Europe) and matched groups of natives. Overall, the temperature-mortality relationship and MMT were close in foreign born and in native born: The only difference between foreign born and native born concerned the attributable mortality to cold, found in several instances larger in foreign born. There are little differences in France between the temperature-mortality relationships in native born and in foreign born. This supports the hypothesis of an adaptation of these populations to the temperature patterns of continental France, which for those born in Africa differ markedly from the climatic pattern of their birth country.

Geographic variation in avian incubation periods and parental influences on embryonic temperature

USGS Publications Warehouse

Martin, T.E.; Auer, S.K.; Bassar, R.D.; Niklison, Alina M.; Lloyd, P.

2007-01-01

Theory predicts shorter embryonic periods in species with greater embryo mortality risk and smaller body size. Field studies of 80 passerine species on three continents yielded data that largely conflicted with theory; incubation (embryonic) periods were longer rather than shorter in smaller species, and egg (embryo) mortality risk explained some variation within regions, but did not explain larger differences in incubation periods among geographic regions. Incubation behavior of parents seems to explain these discrepancies. Bird embryos are effectively ectothermic and depend on warmth provided by parents sitting on the eggs to attain proper temperatures for development. Parents of smaller species, plus tropical and southern hemisphere species, commonly exhibited lower nest attentiveness (percent of time spent on the nest incubating) than larger and northern hemisphere species. Lower nest attentiveness produced cooler minimum and average embryonic temperatures that were correlated with longer incubation periods independent of nest predation risk or body size. We experimentally tested this correlation by swapping eggs of species with cool incubation temperatures with eggs of species with warm incubation temperatures and similar egg mass. Incubation periods changed (shortened or lengthened) as expected and verified the importance of egg temperature on development rate. Slower development resulting from cooler temperatures may simply be a cost imposed on embryos by parents and may not enhance offspring quality. At the same time, incubation periods of transferred eggs did not match host species and reflect intrinsic differences among species that may result from nest predation and other selection pressures. Thus, geographic variation in embryonic development may reflect more complex interactions than previously recognized. ?? 2007 The Author(s).

The association between temperature and mortality in tropical middle income Thailand from 1999 to 2008

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tawatsupa, Benjawan; Dear, Keith; Kjellstrom, Tord; Sleigh, Adrian

2014-03-01

We have investigated the association between tropical weather condition and age-sex adjusted death rates (ADR) in Thailand over a 10-year period from 1999 to 2008. Population, mortality, weather and air pollution data were obtained from four national databases. Alternating multivariable fractional polynomial (MFP) regression and stepwise multivariable linear regression analysis were used to sequentially build models of the associations between temperature variable and deaths, adjusted for the effects and interactions of age, sex, weather (6 variables), and air pollution (10 variables). The associations are explored and compared among three seasons (cold, hot and wet months) and four weather zones of Thailand (the North, Northeast, Central, and South regions). We found statistically significant associations between temperature and mortality in Thailand. The maximum temperature is the most important variable in predicting mortality. Overall, the association is nonlinear U-shape and 31 °C is the minimum-mortality temperature in Thailand. The death rates increase when maximum temperature increase with the highest rates in the North and Central during hot months. The final equation used in this study allowed estimation of the impact of a 4 °C increase in temperature as projected for Thailand by 2100; this analysis revealed that the heat-related deaths will increase more than the cold-related deaths avoided in the hot and wet months, and overall the net increase in expected mortality by region ranges from 5 to 13 % unless preventive measures were adopted. Overall, these results are useful for health impact assessment for the present situation and future public health implication of global climate change for tropical Thailand.

Surgical implantation of temperature-sensitive transmitters and data-loggers to record body temperature in koalas (Phascolarctos cinereus).

PubMed

Adam, D; Johnston, S D; Beard, L; Nicholson, V; Lisle, A; Gaughan, J; Larkin, R; Theilemann, P; Mckinnon, A; Ellis, W

2016-01-01

Under predicted climate change scenarios, koala distribution in Australia is expected to be adversely affected. Recent studies have attempted to identify suitable habitat, based on models of bioclimatic regions, but to more accurately reflect the thermal tolerance and behavioural adaptations of the various regional populations, the koala's response to periods of heat stress will need to be investigated at the individual animal level. To explore the safety and suitability of temperature-sensitive intra-abdominal implants for monitoring core body temperature in the koala. A temperature-sensitive radio transmitter and thermal iButton data-logger, waxed together as a package, were surgically implanted into the abdominal cavity of four captive koalas. In one animal the implant was tethered and in the other three, it was left free-floating. After 3 months, the implants were removed and all four koalas recovered without complications. The tethering of the package in the one koala resulted in minor inflammation and adhesion, so this practice was subsequently abandoned. The free-floating deployments were complication-free and revealed a diurnal body temperature rhythm, with daily ranges of 0.4-2.8°C. The minimum recorded body temperature was 34.2°C and the maximum was 37.7°C. The difference in the readings obtained from the transmitters and iButtons never exceeded 0.3°C. The suitability of the surgical approach was confirmed, from both the animal welfare and data collection points of view. © 2016 Australian Veterinary Association.

Analysis of Biaxial Stress Fields in Plates Cracking at Elevated Temperatures

DTIC Science & Technology

1989-10-19

used . Based on the enhanced theory, it is predicted that the minimum resolvable stress amplitude using thermographic stress analysis will be...because of limitations in the commercial thermographic equipment used . Based on the enhanced theory, it is predicted that the minimum resolvable stress...amplitude using thermographic stress analysis will be approximately independent of temperature, provided relevant thermal and mechanical material

Safe Minimum Internal Temperature Chart

MedlinePlus

... Administrative Forms Standard Forms Skip Navigation Z7_0Q0619C0JGR010IFST1G5B10H1 Web Content Viewer (JSR 286) Actions ${title} Loading... / Topics / ... Chart / Safe Minimum Internal Temperature Chart Z7_0Q0619C0JGR010IFST1G5B10H3 Web Content Viewer (JSR 286) Actions ${title} Loading... Z7_ ...

Subsonic flight test evaluation of a performance seeking control algorithm on an F-15 airplane

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gilyard, Glenn B.; Orme, John S.

1992-01-01

The subsonic flight test evaluation phase of the NASA F-15 (powered by F 100 engines) performance seeking control program was completed for single-engine operation at part- and military-power settings. The subsonic performance seeking control algorithm optimizes the quasi-steady-state performance of the propulsion system for three modes of operation. The minimum fuel flow mode minimizes fuel consumption. The minimum thrust mode maximizes thrust at military power. Decreases in thrust-specific fuel consumption of 1 to 2 percent were measured in the minimum fuel flow mode; these fuel savings are significant, especially for supersonic cruise aircraft. Decreases of up to approximately 100 degree R in fan turbine inlet temperature were measured in the minimum temperature mode. Temperature reductions of this magnitude would more than double turbine life if inlet temperature was the only life factor. Measured thrust increases of up to approximately 15 percent in the maximum thrust mode cause substantial increases in aircraft acceleration. The system dynamics of the closed-loop algorithm operation were good. The subsonic flight phase has validated the performance seeking control technology, which can significantly benefit the next generation of fighter and transport aircraft.

Trends in snowfall versus rainfall in the western United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Knowles, N.; Dettinger, M.D.; Cayan, D.R.

2006-01-01

The water resources of the western United States depend heavily on snowpack to store part of the wintertime precipitation into the drier summer months. A well-documented shift toward earlier runoff in recent decades has been attributed to 1) more precipitation falling as rain instead of snow and 2) earlier snowmelt. The present study addresses the former, documenting a regional trend toward smaller ratios of winter-total snowfall water equivalent (SFE) to winter-total precipitation (P) during the period 1949-2004. The trends toward reduce d SFE are a response to warming across the region, with the most significant reductions occurring where winter wet-day minimum temperatures, averaged over the study period, were warmer than -5??C. Most SFE reductions were associated with winter wet-day temperature increases between 0?? and +3??C over the study period. Warmings larger than this occurred mainly at sites where the mean temperatures were cool enough that the precipitation form was less susceptible to warming trends. The trends toward reduced SFE/P ratios w ere most pronounced in March regionwide and in January near the West Coast, corresponding, to widespread warming in these months. While mean temperatures in March were sufficiently high to allow the warming, trend to produce SFE/P declines across the study region, mean January temperatures were cooler. with the result that January SFE/P impacts were restricted to the lower elevations near the West Coast. Extending the analysis back to 1920 sho ws that although the trends presented here may be partially attributable to interdecadal climate variability associated with the Pacific decadal oscillation. they also appear to result from still longer-term climate shifts.

The Short-Term Effect of Ambient Temperature on Mortality in Wuhan, China: A Time-Series Study Using a Distributed Lag Non-Linear Model

PubMed Central

Zhang, Yunquan; Li, Cunlu; Feng, Renjie; Zhu, Yaohui; Wu, Kai; Tan, Xiaodong; Ma, Lu

2016-01-01

Less evidence concerning the association between ambient temperature and mortality is available in developing countries/regions, especially inland areas of China, and few previous studies have compared the predictive ability of different temperature indictors (minimum, mean, and maximum temperature) on mortality. We assessed the effects of temperature on daily mortality from 2003 to 2010 in Jiang’an District of Wuhan, the largest city in central China. Quasi-Poisson generalized linear models combined with both non-threshold and double-threshold distributed lag non-linear models (DLNM) were used to examine the associations between different temperature indictors and cause-specific mortality. We found a U-shaped relationship between temperature and mortality in Wuhan. Double-threshold DLNM with mean temperature performed best in predicting temperature-mortality relationship. Cold effect was delayed, whereas hot effect was acute, both of which lasted for several days. For cold effects over lag 0–21 days, a 1 °C decrease in mean temperature below the cold thresholds was associated with a 2.39% (95% CI: 1.71, 3.08) increase in non-accidental mortality, 3.65% (95% CI: 2.62, 4.69) increase in cardiovascular mortality, 3.87% (95% CI: 1.57, 6.22) increase in respiratory mortality, 3.13% (95% CI: 1.88, 4.38) increase in stroke mortality, and 21.57% (95% CI: 12.59, 31.26) increase in ischemic heart disease (IHD) mortality. For hot effects over lag 0–7 days, a 1 °C increase in mean temperature above the hot thresholds was associated with a 25.18% (95% CI: 18.74, 31.96) increase in non-accidental mortality, 34.10% (95% CI: 25.63, 43.16) increase in cardiovascular mortality, 24.27% (95% CI: 7.55, 43.59) increase in respiratory mortality, 59.1% (95% CI: 41.81, 78.5) increase in stroke mortality, and 17.00% (95% CI: 7.91, 26.87) increase in IHD mortality. This study suggested that both low and high temperature were associated with increased mortality in Wuhan, and that mean temperature had better predictive ability than minimum and maximum temperature in the association between temperature and mortality. PMID:27438847

Changing spring phenology dates in the Three-Rivers Headwater Region of the Tibetan Plateau during 1960-2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Shuang; Xia, Jiangjiang; Yan, Zhongwei; Yang, Kun

2018-01-01

The variation of the vegetation growing season in the Three-Rivers Headwater Region of the Tibetan Plateau has recently become a controversial topic. One issue is that the estimated local trend in the start of the vegetation growing season (SOS) based on remote sensing data is easily affected by outliers because this data series is short. In this study, we determine that the spring minimum temperature is the most influential factor for SOS. The significant negative linear relationship between the two variables in the region is evaluated using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer-Normalized Difference Vegetation Index data for 2000-13. We then reconstruct the SOS time series based on the temperature data for 1960-2013. The regional mean SOS shows an advancing trend of 1.42 d (10 yr)-1 during 1960-2013, with the SOS occurring on the 160th and 151st days in 1960 and 2013, respectively. The advancing trend enhances to 6.04 d (10 yr)-1 during the past 14 years. The spatiotemporal variations of the reconstructed SOS data are similar to those deduced from remote sensing data during the past 14 years. The latter exhibit an even larger regional mean trend of SOS [7.98 d (10 yr-1)] during 2000-13. The Arctic Oscillation is found to have significantly influenced the changing SOS, especially for the eastern part of the region, during 2000-13.

Impedance magnitude optimization of the regenerator in Stirling pulse tube cryocoolers working at liquid-helium temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, Q.; Qiu, L. M.; Zhi, X. Q.; Han, L.; Gan, Z. H.; Zhang, X. B.; Zhang, X. J.; Sun, D. M.

2013-12-01

The impedance magnitude is important for the design and operation of a Stirling pulse tube cryocooler (SPTC). However, the influence of the impedance magnitude on the SPTC working at liquid-helium temperatures is still not clear due to the complexity of refrigeration mechanism at this temperature range. In this study, the influence of the impedance magnitude on the viscous and thermal losses has been investigated, which contributes to the overall refrigeration efficiency. Different from the previous study at liquid nitrogen temperatures, it has been found and verified experimentally that a higher impedance magnitude may result in a larger mass flow rate accompanied with larger losses in the warmer region, hence the refrigeration efficiency is lowered. Numerical simulation is carried out in SPTCs of different geometry dimensions and working parameters, and the experimental study is carried out in a three-stage SPTC. A minimum no-load refrigeration temperature is achieved with an appropriate impedance magnitude that is determined by the combination of frequency and precooling temperature. A lowest temperature of 4.76 K is achieved at 28 Hz and a precooling temperature of 22.6 K, which is the lowest temperature ever achieved with He-4 for SPTCs. Impedance magnitude optimization is clearly an important consideration for the design of a 4 K SPTC.

Association between summer temperature and body weight in Japanese adolescents and children: An ecological analysis.

PubMed

Yokoya, Masana; Higuchi, Yukito

2016-11-01

Several experimental studies reported evidence of a negative energy balance at higher temperatures. However, corresponding weight loss has not been noted in clinical practice. This study investigated the geographical association between outdoor temperature and body weight in Japanese adolescents and children. An ecological analysis was conducted using prefecture-level data on the mean body weight of Japanese adolescents and children over a 25-year period and Japanese mesh (regional) climatic data on the mean annual temperature, mean daily maximum temperature in August, and mean daily minimum temperature in January were also analyzed. Correlation analysis uncovered a stronger association between weight and the mean daily maximum temperature in August than with other climatic variables. Moreover, multiple regression analysis indicated that height and the mean daily maximum temperature in August were statistically significant predictors of weight. This suggests that geographical differences in weight in Japanese adolescents and children can be explained by the complementary relationship between height-associated weight gain and weight loss caused by summer heat. Summer temperatures may reduce the proportion of children who are overweight and contribute to geographical differences in body weight in Japanese adolescents and children. Am. J. Hum. Biol. 28:789-795, 2016. © 2016Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Non-linear effects of mean temperature and relative humidity on dengue incidence in Guangzhou, China.

PubMed

Wu, Xiaocheng; Lang, Lingling; Ma, Wenjun; Song, Tie; Kang, Min; He, Jianfeng; Zhang, Yonghui; Lu, Liang; Lin, Hualiang; Ling, Li

2018-07-01

Dengue fever is an important infectious disease in Guangzhou, China; previous studies on the effects of weather factors on the incidence of dengue fever did not consider the linearity of the associations. This study evaluated the effects of daily mean temperature, relative humidity and rainfall on the incidence of dengue fever. A generalized additive model with splines smoothing function was performed to examine the effects of daily mean, minimum and maximum temperatures, relative humidity and rainfall on incidence of dengue fever during 2006-2014. Our analysis detected a non-linear effect of mean, minimum and maximum temperatures and relative humidity on dengue fever with the thresholds at 28°C, 23°C and 32°C for daily mean, minimum and maximum temperatures, 76% for relative humidity, respectively. Below the thresholds, there was a significant positive effect, the excess risk in dengue fever for each 1°C in the mean temperature at lag7-14days was 10.21%, (95% CI: 6.62% to 13.92%), 7.10% (95% CI: 4.99%, 9.26%) for 1°C increase in daily minimum temperature in lag 11days, and 2.27% (95% CI: 0.84%, 3.72%) for 1°C increase in daily maximum temperature in lag 10days; and each 1% increase in relative humidity of lag7-14days was associated with 1.95% (95% CI: 1.21% to 2.69%) in risk of dengue fever. Future prevention and control measures and epidemiology studies on dengue fever should consider these weather factors based on their exposure-response relationship. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Risk of hospitalization for fire-related burns during extreme cold weather.

PubMed

Ayoub, Aimina; Kosatsky, Tom; Smargiassi, Audrey; Bilodeau-Bertrand, Marianne; Auger, Nathalie

2017-10-01

Environmental factors are important predictors of fires, but no study has examined the association between outdoor temperature and fire-related burn injuries. We sought to investigate the relationship between extremely cold outdoor temperatures and the risk of hospitalization for fire-related burns. We carried out a time-stratified case-crossover study of 2470 patients hospitalized for fire-related burn injuries during cold months between 1989 and 2014 in Quebec, Canada. The main exposure was the minimum outdoor temperature on the day of and the day before the burn. We computed odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) to evaluate the relationship between minimum temperature and fire-related burns, and assessed how associations varied across sex and age. Exposure to extreme cold temperature was associated with a significantly higher risk of hospitalization for fire-related burns. Compared with 0°C, exposure to a minimum temperature of -30°C was associated with an OR of 1.51 (95% CI 1.22-1.87) for hospitalization for fire-related burns. The associations were somewhat stronger for women, youth, and the elderly. Compared with 0°C, a minimum temperature of -30°C was associated with an OR for fire-related burn hospitalization of 1.65 for women (95% CI 1.13-2.40), 1.60 for age < 25 years (95% CI 1.02-2.52), and 1.73 for age ≥ 65 years (95% CI 1.08-2.77). Extremely cold outdoor temperature is a risk factor for fire-related burns. Measures to prevent fires should be implemented prior to the winter season, and enhanced during extreme cold. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Comparison of the driving forces of spring phenology among savanna landscapes by including combined spatial and temporal heterogeneity.

PubMed

Zhu, Likai; Southworth, Jane; Meng, Jijun

2015-10-01

Understanding spatial and temporal dynamics of land surface phenology (LSP) and its driving forces are critical for providing information relevant to short- and long-term decision making, particularly as it relates to climate response planning. With the third generation Global Inventory Monitoring and Modeling System (GIMMS3g) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data and environmental data from multiple sources, we investigated the spatio-temporal changes in the start of the growing season (SOS) in southern African savannas from 1982 through 2010 and determined its linkage to environmental factors using spatial panel data models. Overall, the SOS occurs earlier in the north compared to the south. This relates in part to the differences in ecosystems, with northern areas representing high rainfall and dense tree cover (mainly tree savannas), whereas the south has lower rainfall and sparse tree cover (mainly bush and grass savannas). From 1982 to 2010, an advanced trend was observed predominantly in the tree savanna areas of the north, whereas a delayed trend was chiefly found in the floodplain of the north and bush/grass savannas of the south. Different environmental drivers were detected within tree- and grass-dominated savannas, with a critical division being represented by the 800 mm isohyet. Our results supported the importance of water as a driver in this water-limited system, specifically preseason soil moisture, in determining the SOS in these water-limited, grass-dominated savannas. In addition, the research pointed to other, often overlooked, effects of preseason maximum and minimum temperatures on the SOS across the entire region. Higher preseason maximum temperatures led to an advance of the SOS, whereas the opposite effects of preseason minimum temperature were observed. With the rapid increase in global change research, this work will prove helpful for managing savanna landscapes and key to predicting how projected climate changes will affect regional vegetation phenology and productivity.

Characteristics of the cold-water belt formed off Soya Warm Current

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ishizu, Miho; Kitade, Yujiro; Matsuyama, Masaji

2008-12-01

We examined the data obtained by acoustic Doppler current profiler, conductivity-temperature-depth profiler, and expendable bathythermograph observations, which were collected in the summers of 2000, 2001, and 2002, to clarify the characteristics of the cold-water belt (CWB), i.e., lower-temperature water than the surrounding water extending from the southwest coast of Sakhalin along the offshore side of Soya Warm Current (SWC) and to confirm one of the formation mechanisms of the CWB as suggested by our previous study, i.e., the upwelling due to the convergence of bottom Ekman transport off the SWC region. The CWB was observed at about 30 km off the coast, having a thickness of 14 m and a minimum temperature of 12°C at the sea surface. The CWB does not have the specific water mass, but is constituted of three representative water types off the northeast coast of Hokkaido in summer, i.e., SWC water, Fresh Surface Okhotsk Sea Water, and Okhotsk Sea Intermediate Water. In a comparison of the horizontal distributions of current and temperature, the CWB region is found to be advected to the southeast at an average of 40 ± 29% of the maximum current velocity of the SWC. The pumping speed due to the convergence of the bottom Ekman transport is estimated as (1.5-3.0) × 10-4 m s-1. We examined the mixing ratio of the CWB, and the results implied that the water mass of the CWB is advected southeastward and mixes with a water mass upwelling in a different region off SWC.

Reduced diurnal temperature range does not change warming impacts on ecosystem carbon balance of Mediterranean grassland mesocosms

DOE PAGES

Phillips, Claire L.; Gregg, Jillian W.; Wilson, John K.

2011-11-01

Daily minimum temperature (T min) has increased faster than daily maximum temperature (T max) in many parts of the world, leading to decreases in diurnal temperature range (DTR). Projections suggest these trends are likely to continue in many regions, particularly northern latitudes and in arid regions. Despite wide speculation that asymmetric warming has different impacts on plant and ecosystem production than equal-night-and-day warming, there has been little direct comparison of these scenarios. Reduced DTR has also been widely misinterpreted as a result of night-only warming, when in fact T min occurs near dawn, indicating higher morning as well as nightmore » temperatures. We report on the first experiment to examine ecosystem-scale impacts of faster increases in T min than T max, using precise temperature controls to create realistic diurnal temperature profiles with gradual day-night temperature transitions and elevated early morning as well as night temperatures. Studying a constructed grassland ecosystem containing species native to Oregon, USA, we found the ecosystem lost more carbon at elevated than ambient temperatures, but was unaffected by the 3ºC difference in DTR between symmetric warming (constantly ambient +3.5ºC) and asymmetric warming (dawn T min=ambient +5ºC, afternoon T max= ambient +2ºC). Reducing DTR had no apparent effect on photosynthesis, likely because temperatures were most different in the morning and late afternoon when light was low. Respiration was also similar in both warming treatments, because respiration temperature sensitivity was not sufficient to respond to the limited temperature differences between asymmetric and symmetric warming. We concluded that changes in daily mean temperatures, rather than changes in T min/T max, were sufficient for predicting ecosystem carbon fluxes in this reconstructed Mediterranean grassland system.« less

Ambient temperature and emergency department visits: Time-series analysis in 12 Chinese cities.

PubMed

Zhao, Qi; Zhang, Yongming; Zhang, Wenyi; Li, Shanshan; Chen, Gongbo; Wu, Yanbin; Qiu, Chen; Ying, Kejing; Tang, Huaping; Huang, Jian-An; Williams, Gail; Huxley, Rachel; Guo, Yuming

2017-05-01

The association between ambient temperature and mortality has been well documented worldwide. However, limited data are available on nonfatal health outcomes, such as emergency department visits (EDVs), particularly from China. To examine the temperature-EDV association in 12 Chinese cities; and to assess the modification effects by region, gender and age. Daily meteorological data and non-accidental EDVs were collected during 2011-2014. Poisson regression with distributed lag non-linear model was applied to examine the temperature-lag-EDV association in each city. The effect estimates were pooled using multivariate meta-analysis at the national and regional level. Stratified analyses were performed by gender and age-groups. Sensitivity analyses adjusting for air pollution and relative humidity were conducted. A total of 4,443,127 EDVs were collected from the 12 cities. Both cold and hot temperatures were associated with increased risk of EDVs, with minimum-mortality temperature located at 64th percentile of temperature. The effect of cold temperature appeared on day 2 and persisted until day 30, causing a cumulative relative risk (RR) of 1.80 (1.54, 2.11). The effect of hot temperature appeared immediately and lasted until day 3, with a cumulative RR of 1.15 (1.03, 1.29). The effect of temperature on EDVs was similar in male and female but was attenuated with increasing age. The effect of cold temperature on EDVs was greater in southern areas of the country whereas the hot effect was greater in northern cities. The association was robust to a large range of sensitivity analyses. In China, there is a U-shaped association between temperature and risk of EDVs that is independent of air pollution and humidity. The temperature-EDV association varies with latitude and age-groups but is not affected by gender. Forecasting models for hospital emergency departments may be improved if temperature is included as an independent predictor. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zubov, F. I.; Kryzhanovskaya, N. V.; Moiseev, E. I.

The spectral, threshold, and power characteristics of a microdisk laser 31 μm in diameter with an active region based on InAs/InGaAs quantum dots, operating in the continuous-wave (cw) mode at room temperature are studied. The minimum threshold current density is 0.58 kA/cm{sup 2}, the subthreshold linewidth of the whispering-gallery mode is 50 pm at a wavelength lying in the range of 1.26–1.27 μm. The total power emitted into free space reaches ~0.1 mW in the cw mode, whereas the radiation power of the whispering-gallery modes is ~2.8%.

Effects of Post-Deposition Annealing on ZrO2/n-GaN MOS Capacitors with H2O and O3 as the Oxidizers.

PubMed

Zheng, Meijuan; Zhang, Guozhen; Wang, Xiao; Wan, Jiaxian; Wu, Hao; Liu, Chang

2017-12-01

GaN-based metal-oxide-semiconductor capacitors with ZrO 2 as the dielectric layer have been prepared by atomic layer deposition. The accumulation and depletion regions can be clearly distinguished when the voltage was swept from -4 to 4 V. Post-annealing results suggested that the capacitance in accumulation region went up gradually as the annealing temperature increased from 300 to 500 °C. A minimum leakage current density of 3 × 10 -9  A/cm 2 at 1 V was obtained when O 3 was used for the growth of ZrO 2 . Leakage analysis revealed that Schottky emission and Fowler-Nordheim tunneling were the main leakage mechanisms.

Climate Variability and Dengue Fever in Warm and Humid Mexico

PubMed Central

Colón-González, Felipe J.; Lake, Iain R.; Bentham, Graham

2011-01-01

Multiple linear regression models were fitted to look for associations between changes in the incidence rate of dengue fever and climate variability in the warm and humid region of Mexico. Data were collected for 12 Mexican provinces over a 23-year period (January 1985 to December 2007). Our results show that the incidence rate or risk of infection is higher during El Niño events and in the warm and wet season. We provide evidence to show that dengue fever incidence was positively associated with the strength of El Niño and the minimum temperature, especially during the cool and dry season. Our study complements the understanding of dengue fever dynamics in the region and may be useful for the development of early warning systems. PMID:21540386

Climate variability and dengue fever in warm and humid Mexico.

PubMed

Colón-González, Felipe J; Lake, Iain R; Bentham, Graham

2011-05-01

Multiple linear regression models were fitted to look for associations between changes in the incidence rate of dengue fever and climate variability in the warm and humid region of Mexico. Data were collected for 12 Mexican provinces over a 23-year period (January 1985 to December 2007). Our results show that the incidence rate or risk of infection is higher during El Niño events and in the warm and wet season. We provide evidence to show that dengue fever incidence was positively associated with the strength of El Niño and the minimum temperature, especially during the cool and dry season. Our study complements the understanding of dengue fever dynamics in the region and may be useful for the development of early warning systems.

Temperature properties in the tropical tropopause layer and their correlations with Outgoing Longwave Radiation: FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Kaiti; Wu, Yi-chao; Lin, Jia-Ting; Tan, Pei-Hua

2018-06-01

The properties of temperature at the level of lapse rate minimum (LRM) in the tropical tropopause layer between 20°S and 20°N are investigated using 3-year radio occultation observations based on the FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC mission from November of 2006 to October of 2009. The correlations between this LRM temperature and Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) are analyzed by 5° × 5° grids in longitude and latitude. Two primary regions, one from 60°E to 180°E and the other from 90°W to 30°E, are found to have higher correlations and can be associated with regions of lower OLR values. The patterns of this spatial distributions of regions with higher correlations begin to change more obviously when the altitude ascends to the level of Cold Point Tropopause (CPT). This correlation at the LRM altitude in annual and seasonal scales also shows spatial distributions associated with OLR intensities. The altitudinal dependence of the correlations between temperature and OLR is further analyzed based on grids of high correlations with significance at LRM altitude, for the two primary regions. The results show that for the different time scales in this analysis (3-year, annual, and seasonal), the correlations all gradually decrease above the LRM levels but maintain a significant level to as high as 2.5-3.5 km. Below the LRM level, the correlation decreases with a slower rate as the altitude descends and still keeps significant at the deep 5 km level. These suggest that the vertical temperature profiles could be affected by the convection mechanism for a wide range of altitudes in the troposphere even above LRM altitude. Applying the same analysis on one complete La Niña event during the survey period also reveals similar features.

Crop-climate relationships of cereals in Greece and the impacts of recent climate trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mavromatis, Theodoros

2015-05-01

Notwithstanding technological developments, agricultural production is still affected by uncontrollable factors, such weather and climate. Within this context, the present study aims at exploring the relative influence of growing season climate on the yields of major cereals (hard and soft wheat, maize, and barley) on a regional scale in Greece. To this end, crop-climate relationships and the impacts of climate trends over the period 1978-2005 were explored using linear regression and change point analysis (CPA). Climate data used include maximum (Tx) and minimum temperature (Tn), diurnal temperature range (Tr), precipitation (Prec), and solar radiation (Rad). Temperature effects were the most substantial. Yields reduced by 1.8-7.1 %/°C with increasing Tx and by 1.4-6.1 %/°C with decreasing Tr. The warming trends of Tn caused bilateral yield effects (from -3.7 to 8.4 %/°C). The fewer significantly increasing Rad and decreasing Prec anomalies were associated with larger yield decreases (within the range of 2.2 % MJ/m2/day (for maize) to 4.9 % MJ/m2/day (for hard wheat)) and smaller yield increases (from 0.04 to 1.4 %/mm per decade), respectively. Wheat and barley—the most vulnerable cereals—were most affected by the trends of extreme temperatures and least by Tr. On the contrary, solar radiation has proven to be the least affecting climate variable on all cereals. Despite the similarity in the direction of crop responses with both analyses, yield changes were much more substantial in the case of CPA analysis. In conclusion, regional climate change has affected Greek cereal productivity, in a few, but important for cereal production, regions. The results of this study are expected to be valuable in anticipating the effects of weather/climate on other warm regions worldwide, where the upper temperature limit for some cereals and further changes in climate may push them past suitability for their cultivation.

Comparative Study of the Three-Dimensional Thermodynamical Structure of the Inner Corona of Solar Minimum Carrington Rotations 1915 and 2081

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lloveras, Diego G.; Vásquez, Alberto M.; Nuevo, Federico A.; Frazin, Richard A.

2017-10-01

Using differential emission measure tomography (DEMT) based on time series of EUV images, we carry out a quantitative comparative analysis of the three-dimensional (3D) structure of the electron density and temperature of the inner corona (r<1.25 R_{⊙}) between two specific rotations selected from the last two solar minima, namely Carrington Rotations (CR)1915 and CR-2081. The analysis places error bars on the results because of the systematic uncertainty of the sources. While the results for CR-2081 are characterized by a remarkable north-south symmetry, the southern hemisphere for CR-1915 exhibits higher densities and temperatures than the northern hemisphere. The core region of the streamer belt in both rotations is found to be populated by structures whose temperature decreases with height (called "down loops" in our previous articles). They are characterized by plasma β≳1, and may be the result of the efficient dissipation of Alfvén waves at low coronal heights. The comparative analysis reveals that the low latitudes of the equatorial streamer belt of CR-1915 exhibit higher densities than for CR-2081. This cannot be explained by the systematic uncertainties. In addition, the southern hemisphere of the streamer belt of CR-1915 is characterized by higher temperatures and density scale heights than for CR-2081. On the other hand, the coronal hole region of CR-1915 shows lower temperatures than for CR-2081. The reported differences are in the range ≈ 10 - 25%, depending on the specific physical quantity and region that is compared, as fully detailed in the analysis. For other regions and/or physical quantities, the uncertainties do not allow assessing the thermodynamical differences between the two rotations. Future investigation will involve a DEMT analysis of other Carrington rotations selected from both epochs, and also a comparison of their tomographic reconstructions with magnetohydrodynamical simulations of the inner corona.

[Study on sensitivity of climatic factors on influenza A (H1N1) based on classification and regression tree and wavelet analysis].

PubMed

Xiao, Hong; Lin, Xiao-ling; Dai, Xiang-yu; Gao, Li-dong; Chen, Bi-yun; Zhang, Xi-xing; Zhu, Pei-juan; Tian, Huai-yu

2012-05-01

To analyze the periodicity of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) in Changsha in year 2009 and its correlation with sensitive climatic factors. The information of 5439 cases of influenza A (H1N1) and synchronous meteorological data during the period between May 22th and December 31st in year 2009 (223 days in total) in Changsha city were collected. The classification and regression tree (CART) was employed to screen the sensitive climatic factors on influenza A (H1N1); meanwhile, cross wavelet transform and wavelet coherence analysis were applied to assess and compare the periodicity of the pandemic disease and its association with the time-lag phase features of the sensitive climatic factors. The results of CART indicated that the daily minimum temperature and daily absolute humidity were the sensitive climatic factors for the popularity of influenza A (H1N1) in Changsha. The peak of the incidence of influenza A (H1N1) was in the period between October and December (Median (M) = 44.00 cases per day), simultaneously the daily minimum temperature (M = 13°C) and daily absolute humidity (M = 6.69 g/m(3)) were relatively low. The results of wavelet analysis demonstrated that a period of 16 days was found in the epidemic threshold in Changsha, while the daily minimum temperature and daily absolute humidity were the relatively sensitive climatic factors. The number of daily reported patients was statistically relevant to the daily minimum temperature and daily absolute humidity. The frequency domain was mostly in the period of (16 ± 2) days. In the initial stage of the disease (from August 9th and September 8th), a 6-day lag was found between the incidence and the daily minimum temperature. In the peak period of the disease, the daily minimum temperature and daily absolute humidity were negatively relevant to the incidence of the disease. In the pandemic period, the incidence of influenza A (H1N1) showed periodic features; and the sensitive climatic factors did have a "driving effect" on the incidence of influenza A (H1N1).

Future Temperatures and Precipitations in the Arid Northern-Central Chile: A Multi-Model Downscaling Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Souvignet, M.; Heinrich, J.

2010-03-01

Downscaling of global climate outputs is necessary to transfer projections of potential climate change scenarios to local levels. This is of special interest to dry mountainous areas, which are particularly vulnerable to climate change due to risks of reduced freshwater availability. These areas play a key role for hydrology since they usually receive the highest local precipitation rates stored in form of snow and glaciers. In the central-northern Chile (Norte Chico, 26-33ºS), where agriculture still serves as a backbone of the economy as well as ensures the well being of people, the knowledge of water resources availability is essential. The region is characterised by a semiarid climate with a mean annual precipitation inferior to 100mm. Moreover, the local climate is also highly influenced by the ENSO phenomenon, which accounts for the strong inter-annual variability in precipitation patterns. Although historical and spatially extensive precipitation data in the headwaters of the basins in this region are not readily available, records at coastal stations show worrisome trends. For instance, the average precipitation in La Serena, the most important city located in the Coquimbo Region, has decreased dramatically in the past 100 years. The 30-year monthly average has decreased from 170 mm in the early 20th century to values less than 80 mm nowadays. Climate Change is expected to strengthen this pattern in the region, and therefore strongly influence local hydrological patterns. The objectives of this study are i) to develop climate change scenarios (2046-2099) for the Norte Chico using multi-model predictions in terms of temperatures and precipitations, and ii) to compare the efficiency of two downscaling techniques in arid mountainous regions. In addition, this study aims at iii) providing decision makers with sound analysis of potential impact of Climate Change on streamflow in the region. For the present study, future local climate scenarios were developed for maximum, minimum temperature and precipitation in the research area based on four different General Circulation Models (GCMs). On the first hand, the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) was used. This model is based on a multiple linear regression method and is best described as a hybrid of the stochastic weather generator and transfer function methods. One common advantage of statistical downscaling is that it ensures the maintenance of local spatial and temporal variability in generating realistic data time series. On the other hand and for comparison purposes, the Change Factor method was used. This methodology is relatively straightforward and ideal for rapid climate change assessment. The outputs of the HadCM3, CGCM3.1, GDFL-CM2 and MRI-CGCM2.3.2 A1 and B2 scenarios were downscaled with both methodologies and thereafter compared by means of several hydro-meteorological indices for a 55-years period (2045-2099). Preliminary results indicate that local temperatures are expected to rise in the region, whereas precipitations may decrease. However, minimum and maximum temperatures might increase at a faster rate at higher altitude areas. In addition, the Cordillera mountain range may encounter and longer winters with a dramatic decrease of icing days (Tmax<0°C). As for precipitation, both SRES scenarios for all models return a diminishing tendency, though the A2 scenario results show a faster decrease rate. Results indicate potential strong inter-seasonal and inter-annual perturbations in Rainfall in the region. Consequently, the Norte Chico will possibly see its streamflow strongly impacted with a resulting high variability at the seasonal and inter-annual level. A probabilistic analysis of the projections of the four GCMs provided a better representation of uncertainties linked with downscaled scenarios. Whereas maximum and minimum temperatures were accurately simulated by both downscaling methods, precipitation simulations returned weaker results. SDSM proved to have a poor ability to simulate extreme rainfall events and few conclusions could be drawn with respect to future occurrences of ENSO phenomena. On the other hand, the change factor method reproduced comparatively better historical precipitations. Despite all sources of error and uncertainties, which must be taken into account when handling the projections, this study addresses an issue that goes beyond local concerns and aims at developing a better understanding of impacts of climate change in fragile environments such as the arid and semiarid transition zone of north-central Chile. Its additional applied component goes therefore beyond the classical comparative study and aims at supporting stakeholders in their processes of decision making.

Calibration of mass transfer-based models to predict reference crop evapotranspiration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valipour, Mohammad

2017-05-01

The present study aims to compare mass transfer-based models to determine the best model under different weather conditions. The results showed that the Penman model estimates reference crop evapotranspiration better than other models in most provinces of Iran (15 provinces). However, the values of R 2 were less than 0.90 for 24 provinces of Iran. Therefore, the models were calibrated, and precision of estimation was increased (the values of R 2 were less than 0.90 for only ten provinces in the modified models). The mass transfer-based models estimated reference crop evapotranspiration in the northern (near the Caspian Sea) and southern (near the Persian Gulf) Iran (annual relative humidity more than 65 %) better than other provinces. The best values of R 2 were 0.96 and 0.98 for the Trabert and Rohwer models in Ardabil (AR) and Mazandaran (MZ) provinces before and after calibration, respectively. Finally, a list of the best performances of each model was presented to use other regions and next studies according to values of mean, maximum, and minimum temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed. The best weather conditions to use mass transfer-based equations are 8-18 °C (with the exception of Ivanov), <25.5 °C, <15 °C, >55 % for mean, maximum, and minimum temperature, and relative humidity, respectively.

Effects of hot, humid weather on milk temperature, dry matter intake, and milk yield of lactating dairy cows.

PubMed

West, J W; Mullinix, B G; Bernard, J K

2003-01-01

Lactating cows were exposed to moderate and hot, humid weather to determine the effect of increasing ambient temperature, relative humidity, or temperature-humidity index (THI) on intake, milk yield, and milk temperature. Minimum and maximum temperatures averaged 17.9 and 29.5 degrees C (cool period) and 22.5 and 34.4 degrees C (hot period), and minimum and maximum THI averaged 63.8 and 76.6 (cool period) and 72.1 and 83.6 (hot period). Environmental conditions had minor effects on intake and milk yield during the cool period. During the hot period, the THI 2 d earlier and mean air temperature 2 d earlier had the greatest impact on milk yield and DMI, respectively. Both breeds maintained milk temperature within normal ranges during the cool period, but Holstein and Jersey p.m. milk temperatures averaged 39.6 and 39.2 degrees C during the hot period. Current day mean air temperature during the hot period had the greatest impact on cow p.m. milk temperature, and minimum air temperature had the greatest influence on a.m. milk temperature. Dry matter intake and milk yield declined linearly with respective increases in air temperature or THI during the hot period and milk temperature increased linearly with increasing air temperature. Dry matter intake and milk yield both exhibited a curvilinear relationship with milk temperature. Environmental modifications should target the effects of high temperatures on cow body temperature and should modify the environment at critical times during the day when cows are stressed, including morning hours when ambient temperatures are typically cooler and cows are not assumed to be stressed.

[Effects of different organic matter mulching on water content, temperature, and available nutrients of apple orchard soil in a cold region].

PubMed

Zhou, Jiang-Tao; Lü, De-Guo; Qin, Si-Jun

2014-09-01

The effects of different organic matter covers on soil physical-chemical properties were investigated in a 'Hanfu' apple orchard located in a cold region. Four treatments were applied (weed mulching, rice straw mulching, corn straw mulching, and crushed branches mulching), and physical-chemical properties, including orchard soil moisture and nutrient contents, were compared among treatment groups and between organic matter-treated and untreated plots. The results showed that soil water content increased in the plots treated with organic matter mulching, especially in the arid season. Cover with organic matter mulch slowed the rate of soil temperature increase in spring, which was harmful to the early growth of fruit trees. Organic matter mulching treatments decreased the peak temperature of orchard soil in the summer and increased the minimum soil temperature in the fall. pH was increased in soils treated with organic matter mulching, especially in the corn straw mulching treatment, which occurred as a response to alleviating soil acidification to achieve near-neutral soil conditions. The soil organic matter increased to varying extents among treatment groups, with the highest increase observed in the weed mulching treatment. Overall, mulching increased alkali-hydrolyzable nitrogen, available phosphorus, and available potassium in the soil, but the alkali-hydrolyzable nitrogen content in the rice straw mulching treatment was lower than that of the control.

Nickel silicide formation in silicon implanted nickel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rao, Z.; Williams, J. S.; Pogany, A. P.; Sood, D. K.; Collins, G. A.

1995-04-01

Nickel silicide formation during the annealing of very high dose (≥4.5×1017 ions/cm2) Si implanted Ni has been investigated, using ion beam analytical techniques, electron microscopy, and x-ray diffraction analysis. An initial amorphous Si-Ni alloy, formed as a result of high dose ion implantation, first crystallized to Ni2Si upon annealing in the temperature region of 200-300 °C. This was followed by the formation of Ni5Si2 in the temperature region of 300-400 °C and then by Ni3Si at 400-600 °C. The Ni3Si layer was found to have an epitaxial relationship with the substrate Ni, which was determined as Ni3Si<100>∥Ni<100> and Ni3Si<110>∥Ni<110> for Ni(100) samples. The minimum channeling yield in the 2 MeV He Rutherford backscattering and channeling spectra of this epitaxial layer improved with higher annealing temperatures up to 600 °C, and reached a best value measured at about 8%. However, the epitaxial Ni3Si dissolved after long time annealing at 600 °C or annealing at higher temperatures to liberate soluble Si into the Ni substrate. The epitaxy is attributed to the excellent lattice match between the Ni3Si and the Ni. The annealing behavior follows the predictions of the Ni-Si phase diagram for this nickel-rich binary system.

Impact of climate variability on various Rabi crops over Northwest India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nageswararao, M. M.; Dhekale, B. S.; Mohanty, U. C.

2018-01-01

The Indian agriculture with its two prominent cropping seasons [summer ( Kharif) and winter ( Rabi)] is the mainstay of the rural economy. Northwest India (NWI) is an important region for the cultivation of Rabi crops grown during the period from October to April. In the present study, state wise impact analysis is carried out to ascertain the influence of climate indices Nino3.4 region Sea Surface Temperature (SST), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Arctic Oscillation (AO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and local precipitation, soil moisture, minimum ( T min), maximum ( T max) and mean ( T mean) temperatures on different Rabi crops (wheat, gram, rapeseed-mustard, oilseeds, and total Rabi food grains) over NWI during the years 1966-2011. To study the impact of climate variability on different Rabi crops, firstly, the influence of technology on the productivity of these crops has been removed by using linear function, as linear trend has noticed in all the time series. Correlation analysis provides an indication of the influence of local precipitation, soil moisture, T min, T max and T mean and some of its potential predictors (Nino3.4 region SST, SOI, AO, and NAO) on the productivity of different Rabi crops. Overall impact analysis indicates that the productivity of different Rabi crops in most of the places of NWI is most likely influenced by variability in local temperatures. Moreover, Nino3.4 region SST (SOI) positively (negatively) affects the productivity of gram, rapeseed-mustard, and total Rabi oilseeds in most of the states. The results of this study are useful in determining the strategies for increasing sustainable production through better agronomic practices.

Automated algorithm for mapping regions of cold-air pooling in complex terrain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lundquist, Jessica D.; Pepin, Nicholas; Rochford, Caitlin

2008-11-01

In complex terrain, air in contact with the ground becomes cooled from radiative energy loss on a calm clear night and, being denser than the free atmosphere at the same elevation, sinks to valley bottoms. Cold-air pooling (CAP) occurs where this cooled air collects on the landscape. This article focuses on identifying locations on a landscape subject to considerably lower minimum temperatures than the regional average during conditions of clear skies and weak synoptic-scale winds, providing a simple automated method to map locations where cold air is likely to pool. Digital elevation models of regions of complex terrain were used to derive surfaces of local slope, curvature, and percentile elevation relative to surrounding terrain. Each pixel was classified as prone to CAP, not prone to CAP, or exhibiting no signal, based on the criterion that CAP occurs in regions with flat slopes in local depressions or valleys (negative curvature and low percentile). Along-valley changes in the topographic amplification factor (TAF) were then calculated to determine whether the cold air in the valley was likely to drain or pool. Results were checked against distributed temperature measurements in Loch Vale, Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado; in the Eastern Pyrenees, France; and in Yosemite National Park, Sierra Nevada, California. Using CAP classification to interpolate temperatures across complex terrain resulted in improvements in root-mean-square errors compared to more basic interpolation techniques at most sites within the three areas examined, with average error reductions of up to 3°C at individual sites and about 1°C averaged over all sites in the study areas.

Regional model simulations of New Zealand climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Renwick, James A.; Katzfey, Jack J.; Nguyen, Kim C.; McGregor, John L.

1998-03-01

Simulation of New Zealand climate is examined through the use of a regional climate model nested within the output of the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation nine-level general circulation model (GCM). R21 resolution GCM output is used to drive a regional model run at 125 km grid spacing over the Australasian region. The 125 km run is used in turn to drive a simulation at 50 km resolution over New Zealand. Simulations with a full seasonal cycle are performed for 10 model years. The focus is on the quality of the simulation of present-day climate, but results of a doubled-CO2 run are discussed briefly. Spatial patterns of mean simulated precipitation and surface temperatures improve markedly as horizontal resolution is increased, through the better resolution of the country's orography. However, increased horizontal resolution leads to a positive bias in precipitation. At 50 km resolution, simulated frequency distributions of daily maximum/minimum temperatures are statistically similar to those of observations at many stations, while frequency distributions of daily precipitation appear to be statistically different to those of observations at most stations. Modeled daily precipitation variability at 125 km resolution is considerably less than observed, but is comparable to, or exceeds, observed variability at 50 km resolution. The sensitivity of the simulated climate to changes in the specification of the land surface is discussed briefly. Spatial patterns of the frequency of extreme temperatures and precipitation are generally well modeled. Under a doubling of CO2, the frequency of precipitation extremes changes only slightly at most locations, while air frosts become virtually unknown except at high-elevation sites.

Fish Ecology and Evolution in the World's Oxygen Minimum Zones and Implications of Ocean Deoxygenation.

PubMed

Gallo, N D; Levin, L A

Oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) and oxygen limited zones (OLZs) are important oceanographic features in the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Ocean, and are characterized by hypoxic conditions that are physiologically challenging for demersal fish. Thickness, depth of the upper boundary, minimum oxygen levels, local temperatures, and diurnal, seasonal, and interannual oxycline variability differ regionally, with the thickest and shallowest OMZs occurring in the subtropics and tropics. Although most fish are not hypoxia-tolerant, at least 77 demersal fish species from 16 orders have evolved physiological, behavioural, and morphological adaptations that allow them to live under the severely hypoxic, hypercapnic, and at times sulphidic conditions found in OMZs. Tolerance to OMZ conditions has evolved multiple times in multiple groups with no single fish family or genus exploiting all OMZs globally. Severely hypoxic conditions in OMZs lead to decreased demersal fish diversity, but fish density trends are variable and dependent on region-specific thresholds. Some OMZ-adapted fish species are more hypoxia-tolerant than most megafaunal invertebrates and are present even when most invertebrates are excluded. Expansions and contractions of OMZs in the past have affected fish evolution and diversity. Current patterns of ocean warming are leading to ocean deoxygenation, causing the expansion and shoaling of OMZs, which is expected to decrease demersal fish diversity and alter trophic pathways on affected margins. Habitat compression is expected for hypoxia-intolerant species, causing increased susceptibility to overfishing for fisheries species. Demersal fisheries are likely to be negatively impacted overall by the expansion of OMZs in a warming world. © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Detection of temperature trends within the course of the year using "shifting subseasons"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cahynova, Monika; Pokorna, Lucie

2015-04-01

Recent global warming has not been ubiquitous - there are seasons, regions, and time periods with clearly discernible zero or downward air temperature trends. Regions that are not warming or are even cooling - also known as "warming holes" - have been previously detected mainly in autumn in the second half of the 20th century in large parts of North America as well as in Central and Eastern Europe. Daily maximum and minimum temperature (TX and TN, respectively) and daily temperature range (DTR) at 136 stations in Europe during the period 1961-2000 are employed to precisely locate the seasonal and subseasonal trends within the course of the year. Linear trends are calculated for moving "subseasons" of differing lengths (10, 20, 30, 60, and 90 days), each shifted by one day. Cluster analysis of the annual course of "shifting trends" reveals relatively well-defined regions with similar trend behavior. Over most of Europe, the observed warming is greatest in winter, and the highest trend magnitudes are reached by TN in Eastern Europe. Two regions stand out: in Iceland and the Eastern Mediterranean, the trends during the year are weak, positive in summer and mostly negative in winter, reaching statistical significance at only few stations. Significant autumn cooling centered on mid-November was found in Eastern and Southeastern Europe for both TX and TN; in many other regions trends are close to zero in the same period. Other clearly non-warming (or even cooling) periods occur in Western and Central Europe in February, April, and late June. Trends of DTR are largely inconclusive and no general picture can be drawn. Our results suggest that using different time scales, apart from the conventional three-month seasons or common months, is highly desirable for a proper location of trends within the course of the year.

Morphology, nurse plants, and minimum apical temperatures for young Carnegiea gigantea

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nobel, P.S.

1980-06-01

The northern limit of Carnegiea gigantea (Engelm.) Britton and Rose apparently depends on minimum apical temperatures. Diameters, apical spine coverage, and effects of nurse plants on incoming long-wave (infrared (ir)) radiation, all of which affect apical temperatures, were therefore determined for stems of C. gigantea up to 4 m tall at four sites along a north-south transect in Arizona. A simulation model indicated that the increase in diameter accompanying stem growth raised the minimum apical temperature more than 3 C. Thus, plants with the shortest stems would be expected to be the most vulnerable to freezing damage; indeed, freezing damagemore » on stems <0.5 m tall without nurse plants was fairly common at the colder sites. Nurse plants obstructed a greater portion of the sky for C. gigantea at the colder sites; e.g., the effective environmental temperature for ir radiation at such locations was raised more than 10 C for stems under 1 m tall. If the northern limit of C. gigantea reflects wintertime survival of juveniles, nurse plants could extend the range by offering some protection against freezing.« less

Ionospheric reaction on sudden stratospheric warming events in Russiás Asia region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Polyakova, Anna; Perevalova, Natalya; Chernigovskaya, Marina

2015-12-01

The response of the ionosphere to sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) in the Asian region of Russia is studied. Two SSW events observed in 2008-2009 and 2012-2013 winter periods of extreme solar minimum and moderate solar maximum are considered. To detect the ionospheric effects caused by SSWs, we carried out a joint analysis of global ionospheric maps (GIM) of the total electron content (TEC), MLS (Microwave Limb Sounder, EOS Aura) measurements of temperature vertical profiles, as well as NCEP/NCAR and UKMO Reanalysis data. For the first time, it was found that during strong SSWs, in the mid-latitude ionosphere the amplitude of diurnal TEC variation decreases nearly half compared to quiet days. At the same time, the intensity of TEC deviations from the background level increases. It was also found that at SSW peak the midday TEC maximum decreases, and night/morning TEC values increase compared to quiet days. It was shown that during SSWs, TEC dynamics was identical for different geophysical conditions.The response of the ionosphere to sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) in the Asian region of Russia is studied. Two SSW events observed in 2008-2009 and 2012-2013 winter periods of extreme solar minimum and moderate solar maximum are considered. To detect the ionospheric effects caused by SSWs, we carried out a joint analysis of global ionospheric maps (GIM) of the total electron content (TEC), MLS (Microwave Limb Sounder, EOS Aura) measurements of temperature vertical profiles, as well as NCEP/NCAR and UKMO Reanalysis data. For the first time, it was found that during strong SSWs, in the mid-latitude ionosphere the amplitude of diurnal TEC variation decreases nearly half compared to quiet days. At the same time, the intensity of TEC deviations from the background level increases. It was also found that at SSW peak the midday TEC maximum decreases, and night/morning TEC values increase compared to quiet days. It was shown that during SSWs, TEC dynamics was identical for different geophysical conditions.

Temperature effects on metabolic rate of juvenile Pacific bluefin tuna Thunnus orientalis.

PubMed

Blank, Jason M; Morrissette, Jeffery M; Farwell, Charles J; Price, Matthew; Schallert, Robert J; Block, Barbara A

2007-12-01

Pacific bluefin tuna inhabit a wide range of thermal environments across the Pacific ocean. To examine how metabolism varies across this thermal range, we studied the effect of ambient water temperature on metabolic rate of juvenile Pacific bluefin tuna, Thunnus thynnus, swimming in a swim tunnel. Rate of oxygen consumption (MO2) was measured at ambient temperatures of 8-25 degrees C and swimming speeds of 0.75-1.75 body lengths (BL) s(-1). Pacific bluefin swimming at 1 BL s(-1) per second exhibited a U-shaped curve of metabolic rate vs ambient temperature, with a thermal minimum zone between 15 degrees C to 20 degrees C. Minimum MO2 of 175+/-29 mg kg(-1) h(-1) was recorded at 15 degrees C, while both cold and warm temperatures resulted in increased metabolic rates of 331+/-62 mg kg(-1) h(-1) at 8 degrees C and 256+/-19 mg kg(-1) h(-1) at 25 degrees C. Tailbeat frequencies were negatively correlated with ambient temperature. Additional experiments indicated that the increase in MO2 at low temperature occurred only at low swimming speeds. Ambient water temperature data from electronic tags implanted in wild fish indicate that Pacific bluefin of similar size to the experimental fish used in the swim tunnel spend most of their time in ambient temperatures in the metabolic thermal minimum zone.

Secular Trend of Surface Temperature at an Elevated Observatory in the Pyrenees.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bücher, A.; Dessens, J.

1991-08-01

Surface temperature was measured at the Pic du Midi de Bigorre, 2862 m MSL, from the foundation of the Observatory in 1878 until the closing of the meteorological station in 1984. After testing the homogeneity of the series with the annual mean temperatures in western Europe and in southwestern France, the period 1882-1970 was retained for trend analysis.The mean annual temperature increased 0.83°C during the 89-yr period. This increase is the sum of a very significant increase in the daily minimum temperature (+ 2.11°C) and a decrease in the maximum temperature ( 0.45°C). In consequence, the most dramatic change in the temperature regime was the difference between maximum and minimum; this decreased from 8.05°C in 1882 to 5.49°C in 1970. A mean increase is observed in all seasons, but, as for western Europe, it is stronger in spring and fall than in winter and summer.Analysis of cloudiness data for the same period shows a 15% increase in annual mean cloudiness and also significant year-to-year correlations between cloudiness and the maximum and minimum temperature. In consequence, the change in the temperature regime observed at the Pic du Midi since the end of last century is most probably the result of a climatic change involving an increase in cloud cover and, maybe, an increasing greenhouse effect.

Thermodynamical transcription of density functional theory with minimum Fisher information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nagy, Á.

2018-03-01

Ghosh, Berkowitz and Parr designed a thermodynamical transcription of the ground-state density functional theory and introduced a local temperature that varies from point to point. The theory, however, is not unique because the kinetic energy density is not uniquely defined. Here we derive the expression of the phase-space Fisher information in the GBP theory taking the inverse temperature as the Fisher parameter. It is proved that this Fisher information takes its minimum for the case of constant temperature. This result is consistent with the recently proven theorem that the phase-space Shannon information entropy attains its maximum at constant temperature.

Hypoxia Tolerance and Metabolic Suppression in Oxygen Minimum Zone Euphausiids: Implications for Ocean Deoxygenation and Biogeochemical Cycles.

PubMed

Seibel, Brad A; Schneider, Jillian L; Kaartvedt, Stein; Wishner, Karen F; Daly, Kendra L

2016-10-01

The effects of regional variations in oxygen and temperature levels with depth were assessed for the metabolism and hypoxia tolerance of dominant euphausiid species. The physiological strategies employed by these species facilitate prediction of changing vertical distributions with expanding oxygen minimum zones and inform estimates of the contribution of vertically migrating species to biogeochemical cycles. The migrating species from the Eastern Tropical Pacific (ETP), Euphausia eximia and Nematoscelis gracilis, tolerate a Partial Pressure (PO2) of 0.8 kPa at 10 °C (∼15 µM O2) for at least 12 h without mortality, while the California Current species, Nematoscelis difficilis, is incapable of surviving even 2.4 kPa PO2 (∼32 µM O2) for more than 3 h at that temperature. Euphausia diomedeae from the Red Sea migrates into an intermediate oxygen minimum zone, but one in which the temperature at depth remains near 22 °C. Euphausia diomedeae survived 1.6 kPa PO2 (∼22 µM O2) at 22 °C for the duration of six hour respiration experiments. Critical oxygen partial pressures were estimated for each species, and, for E. eximia, measured via oxygen consumption (2.1 kPa, 10 °C, n = 2) and lactate accumulation (1.1 kPa, 10 °C). A primary mechanism facilitating low oxygen tolerance is an ability to dramatically reduce energy expenditure during daytime forays into low oxygen waters. The ETP and Red Sea species reduced aerobic metabolism by more than 50% during exposure to hypoxia. Anaerobic glycolytic energy production, as indicated by whole-animal lactate accumulation, contributed only modestly to the energy deficit. Thus, the total metabolic rate was suppressed by ∼49-64%. Metabolic suppression during diel migrations to depth reduces the metabolic contribution of these species to vertical carbon and nitrogen flux (i.e., the biological pump) by an equivalent amount. Growing evidence suggests that metabolic suppression is a widespread strategy among migrating zooplankton in oxygen minimum zones and may have important implications for the economy and ecology of the oceans. The interacting effects of oxygen and temperature on the metabolism of oceanic species facilitate predictions of changing vertical distribution with climate change. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Integrative and Comparative Biology. All rights reserved. For permissions please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Multiple neutral density measurements in the lower thermosphere with cold-cathode ionization gauges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lehmacher, G. A.; Gaulden, T. M.; Larsen, M. F.; Craven, J. D.

2013-01-01

Cold-cathode ionization gauges were used for rocket-borne measurements of total neutral density and temperature in the aurorally forced lower thermosphere between 90 and 200 km. A commercial gauge was adapted as a low-cost instrument with a spherical antechamber for measurements in molecular flow conditions. Three roll-stabilized payloads on different trajectories each carried two instruments for measurements near the ram flow direction along the respective upleg and downleg segments of a flight path, and six density profiles were obtained within a period of 22 min covering spatial separations up to 200 km. The density profiles were integrated below 125 km to yield temperatures. The mean temperature structure was similar for all six profiles with two mesopause minima near 110 and 101 km, however, for the downleg profiles, the upper minimum was warmer and the lower minimum was colder by 20-30 K indicating significant variability over horizontal scales of 100-200 km. The upper temperature minimum coincided with maximum horizontal winds speeds, exceeding 170 m/s.

Observational analysis and large-scale pattern associated with cold events moving up the equator line over South America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Viana, Liviany; Herdies, Dirceu; Muller, Gabriela

2017-04-01

An observational study was carried out to quantify the events of cold air outbreak moving above the Equator from 1980 to 2013 during the austral winter period (May, June, July, August and September), and later analyzed the behavior of the circulation responsible for this displacement. The observational datasets from the Sector of Climatological studies of the Institute of Airspace Control of the city of Iauarete (0.61N, 69.0W; 120m), located at the extreme northern of the Brazilian Amazon Basin, were used for the analyzes. The meteorological variables used were the temperatures minimum, maximum and maximum atmospheric pressure. A new methodology was used to identify these events, calculated by the difference between the monthly average and 2 (two) standard deviations for the extremes of the air temperature, and the sum of 1 (one) standard deviation for the maximum atmospheric pressure. As a result, a total of 11 cold events were recorded that reached the extreme northern of the Brazilian Amazon Basin, with values recorded at a minimum temperature of 17.8 °C, at the maximum temperature of 21.0 °C and maximum atmospheric pressure reaching 1021.2 hPa. These reductions and augmentation are equivalent to the negative anomalies of 5.9 and 8.7 °C at the minimum and maximum temperatures, respectively, while a positive anomaly of 7.1 hPa was observed at the maximum pressure. In relation to the dynamic behavior of large-scale circulation, a Rossby wave-type configuration propagating from west to east over subtropical latitudes was observed from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) since the days before the arrival of the event in the city of Iauarete. This behavior was observed both in the anomalies of the gepotencial (250 hPa and 850 hPa) and in the southern component of the wind (250 hPa and 850 hPa), both presenting statistical significance of 99 % (Student's T test). Therefore, a new criterion for the identification of "friagens" in the tropical latitude has been able to represent the effects of colds air outbreak and the advancement of the cold air mass, which are subsidized by the large-scale circulation, and consequently contribute to the modifications in the weather and the life of the population over this Equatorial region.

On the subduction of oxygenated surface water in submesoscale cold filaments off Peru.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomsen, Soeren; Kanzow, Torsten; Colas, Francois; Echevin, Vincent; Krahmann, Gerd

2015-04-01

The Peruvian upwelling regime is characterized by pronounced submesoscale variability including filaments and sharp density fronts. Submesoscale frontal processes can drive large vertical velocities and enhance vertical tracer fluxes in the upper ocean. The associated high temporal and spatial variability poses a large challenge to observational approaches targeting submesoscale processes. In this study the role of submesoscale processes for both the ventilation of the near-coastal oxygen minimum zone off Peru and the physical-biogeochemical coupling at these scales is investigated. For our study we use satellite based sea surface temperature measurements in combination with multiple high-resolution glider observations of temperature, salinity, oxygen and chlorophyll fluorescence carried out in January and February 2013 off Peru near 14°S during active upwelling. Additionally, high-resolution regional ocean circulation model outputs (ROMS) are analysed. At the beginning of our observations a previously upwelled, productive and highly oxygenated body of water is found within the mixed layer. Subsequently, a cold filament forms and the waters are moved offshore. After the decay of the filament and the relaxation of the upwelling front, the oxygen enriched surface water is found within the previously less oxygenated thermocline suggesting the occurrence of frontal subduction. A numerical model simulation is used to analyse the evolution of passive tracers and Lagrangian floats within several upwelling filaments, whose vertical structure and hydrographic properties agree well with the observations. The simulated temporal evolution of the tracers and floats support our interpretation that the subduction of previously upwelled water indeed occurs within cold filaments off Peru. Filaments are common features within eastern boundary upwelling systems, which all encompass large oxygen minimum zones. However, most state of-the-art large and regional scale physical-biogeochemical ocean models do not resolve submesoscale filaments and the associated downward transport of oxygen and other solutes. Even if the observed subduction event only reaches into the still oxygenated thermocline the associated ventilation mechanism likely influences the shape and depth of the upper boundary of oxygen minimum zones, which would probably be even shallower without this process.

Understanding CMEs using plasma diagnostics of the related dimmings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vanninathan, Kamalam; Veronig, Astrid; Gomory, Peter; Dissauer, Karin; Temmer, Manuela; Hannah, Iain; Kontar, Eduard

2017-04-01

Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are often associated with dimmings that are well observed in Extreme Ultra-violet (EUV) wavelengths. Such dimmings are suggested to represent the evacuation of mass that is carried out by CMEs and are a unique and indirect means to study CME properties. While Earth-directed CMEs (on-disk CMEs) are difficult to observe due to the bright background solar disk and projection effects, their corresponding dimmings are clearly discernible and ideally suited for analysis. Using data from the 6 EUV channels of Solar Dynamics Observatory/Atmospheric Imaging Assembly for Differential Emission Measure (DEM) diagnostics, we determine the plasma characteristics of the dimming region. These data are well suited for this kind of study due to the good temperature ranges covered by the multiple passbands of the instrument. We analyse 7 on-disk and 5 off-limb events and derive the weighted density and temperature as a function of time, from the DEMs. From such an analysis we differentiate 2 types of dimming regions: core and secondary dimmings. Core dimmings often occur in pairs lying on either sides of the active region and in opposite polarity regions while the secondary dimming is more extended. In both the regions the derived plasma parameters reach a minimum within 30-60 min after the flare. For each event the core dimming region shows a higher decrease in density and temperature than the corresponding secondary dimming regions. The values of these parameters remains low within the core dimming region for the entire duration of this study ( 10 hrs after the flare) while the secondary dimming region starts to show a gradual increase after 1-2 hrs. We also use spectroscopic data from Hinode/Extreme-Ultraviolet Imaging Spectrometer to differentiate core and secondary dimming regions. We find that the Fe XIII 202 Å line shows double component profiles within the core dimming region with strong blueshifts of 100 km/s while the secondary dimming region has weak upflows of 10 km/s. We conclude that the core dimming region corresponds to footpoints of the erupting flux rope from where there is continuous strong upflowing plasma for at least 10 hrs after the flare, while the secondary dimming region begins to refill within 1-2 hrs. These measurements can be used to deduce information about the mass of on-disk CMEs where white light measurements can fail. We also confirm that the dimmings are mainly caused by density decrease and not temperature changes. DEM analysis is a strong tool to decipher CME properties from dimming regions.

Mainstem Clearwater River Study: Assessment for Salmonid Spawning, Incubation, and Rearing.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Conner, William P.

1989-01-01

Chinook salmon reproduced naturally in the Clearwater River until damming of the lower mainstem in 1927 impeded upstream spawning migrations and decimated the populations. Removal of the Washington Water Power Dam in 1973 reopened upriver passage. This study was initiated to determine the feasibility of re-introducing chinook salmon into the lower mainstem Clearwater River based on the temperature and flow regimes, water quality, substrate, and invertebrate production since the completion of Dworshak Dam in 1972. Temperature data obtained from the United States Geological Survey gaging stations at Peck and Spalding, Idaho, were used to calculate average minimum and maximum watermore » temperature on a daily, monthly and yearly basis. The coldest and warmest (absolute minimum and maximum) temperatures that have occurred in the past 15 years were also identified. Our analysis indicates that average lower mainstem Clearwater River water temperatures are suitable for all life stages of chinook salmon, and also for steelhead trout rearing. In some years absolute maximum water temperatures in late summer may postpone adult staging and spawning. Absolute minimum temperatures have been recorded that could decrease overwinter survival of summer chinook juveniles and fall chinook eggs depending on the quality of winter hiding cover and the prevalence of intra-gravel freezing in the lower mainstem Clearwater River.« less

Minimum fan turbine inlet temperature mode evaluation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Orme, John S.; Nobbs, Steven G.

1995-01-01

Measured reductions in turbine temperature which resulted from the application of the F-15 performance seeking control (PSC) minimum fan turbine inlet temperature (FTIT) mode during the dual-engine test phase is presented as a function of net propulsive force and flight condition. Data were collected at altitudes of 30,000 and 45,000 feet at military and partial afterburning power settings. The FTIT reductions for the supersonic tests are less than at subsonic Mach numbers because of the increased modeling and control complexity. In addition, the propulsion system was designed to be optimized at the mid supersonic Mach number range. Subsonically at military power, FTIT reductions were above 70 R for either the left or right engines, and repeatable for the right engine. At partial afterburner and supersonic conditions, the level of FTIT reductions were at least 25 R and as much as 55 R. Considering that the turbine operates at or very near its temperature limit at these high power settings, these seemingly small temperature reductions may significantly lengthen the life of the turbine. In general, the minimum FTIT mode has performed well, demonstrating significant temperature reductions at military and partial afterburner power. Decreases of over 100 R at cruise flight conditions were identified. Temperature reductions of this magnitude could significantly extend turbine life and reduce replacement costs.

Soil water content and evaporation determined by thermal parameters obtained from ground-based and remote measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reginato, R.; Idso, S.; Vedder, J.; Jackson, R.; Blanchard, M.; Goettelman, R.

1975-01-01

A procedure is presented for calculating 24-hour totals of evaporation from wet and drying soils. Its application requires a knowledge of the daily solar radiation, the maximum and minimum, air temperatures, moist surface albedo, and maximum and minimum surface temperatures. Tests of the technique on a bare field of Avondale loam at Phoenix, Arizona showed it to be independent of season.

High Power Orbit Transfer Vehicle

DTIC Science & Technology

2003-07-01

multijunction device is a stack of individual single-junction cells in descending order of band gap. The top cell captures the high-energy photons and passes...the rest of the photons on to be absorbed by lower-band-gap cells. Multijunction devices achieve a higher total conversion efficiency because they...minimum temperatures on the thruster modules and main bus. In the MATLAB code for these calculations, maximum and minimum temperatures are plotted

Finite temperature grand canonical ensemble study of the minimum electrophilicity principle.

PubMed

Miranda-Quintana, Ramón Alain; Chattaraj, Pratim K; Ayers, Paul W

2017-09-28

We analyze the minimum electrophilicity principle of conceptual density functional theory using the framework of the finite temperature grand canonical ensemble. We provide support for this principle, both for the cases of systems evolving from a non-equilibrium to an equilibrium state and for the change from one equilibrium state to another. In doing so, we clearly delineate the cases where this principle can, or cannot, be used.

Wang-Landau density of states based study of the folding-unfolding transition in the mini-protein Trp-cage (TC5b)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, Priya; Sarkar, Subir K.; Bandyopadhyay, Pradipta

2014-07-01

We present the results of a high-statistics equilibrium study of the folding/unfolding transition for the 20-residue mini-protein Trp-cage (TC5b) in water. The ECEPP/3 force field is used and the interaction with water is treated by a solvent-accessible surface area method. A Wang-Landau type simulation is used to calculate the density of states and the conditional probabilities for the various values of the radius of gyration and the number of native contacts at fixed values of energy—along with a systematic check on their convergence. All thermodynamic quantities of interest are calculated from this information. The folding-unfolding transition corresponds to a peak in the temperature dependence of the computed specific heat. This is corroborated further by the structural signatures of folding in the distributions for radius of gyration and the number of native contacts as a function of temperature. The potentials of mean force are also calculated for these variables, both separately and jointly. A local free energy minimum, in addition to the global minimum, is found in a temperature range substantially below the folding temperature. The free energy at this second minimum is approximately 5 kBT higher than the value at the global minimum.

The impact of environmental factors on marine turtle stranding rates

PubMed Central

Flint, Mark; Limpus, Colin J.; Mills, Paul C.

2017-01-01

Globally, tropical and subtropical regions have experienced an increased frequency and intensity in extreme weather events, ranging from severe drought to protracted rain depressions and cyclones, these coincided with an increased number of marine turtles subsequently reported stranded. This study investigated the relationship between environmental variables and marine turtle stranding. The environmental variables examined in this study, in descending order of importance, were freshwater discharge, monthly mean maximum and minimum air temperatures, monthly average daily diurnal air temperature difference and rainfall for the latitudinal hotspots (-27°, -25°, -23°, -19°) along the Queensland coast as well as for major embayments within these blocks. This study found that marine turtle strandings can be linked to these environmental variables at different lag times (3–12 months), and that cumulative (months added together for maximum lag) and non-cumulative (single month only) effects cause different responses. Different latitudes also showed different responses of marine turtle strandings, both in response direction and timing.Cumulative effects of freshwater discharge in all latitudes resulted in increased strandings 10–12 months later. For latitudes -27°, -25° and -23° non-cumulative effects for discharge resulted in increased strandings 7–12 months later. Latitude -19° had different results for the non-cumulative bay with strandings reported earlier (3–6 months). Monthly mean maximum and minimum air temperatures, monthly average daily diurnal air temperature difference and rainfall had varying results for each examined latitude. This study will allow first responders and resource managers to be better equipped to deal with increased marine turtle stranding rates following extreme weather events. PMID:28771635

Thermal effects in photomask engineering and nano-thermometry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chu, Dachen

Electron Beam Lithography (EBL) in photomask fabrication results in heating of the resist films. The local heating can change the chemical properties of resist, leading to placement errors. The heating induced error has been believed to be increasingly significant as the transistor minimum feature size approaches the sub 100 nm region. A Green's function approach has been developed to calculate four-dimensional temperature profiles in complex structures such as the multi-layer work-pieces being exposed in EBL. The model is being used to characterize different ebeam writing strategies to find the optimum. To provide the parameters for the model, two independent techniques have been employed: a thin film electrode method and a laser thermal-reflectance method. Unlike earlier results from polyimide films, no appreciable anisotropy was observed in thermal conductivities for the polymeric resists tested. Gold/nickel thin film thermocouples with minimum junction area of 100nm by 100nm were fabricated and calibrated. These thermocouple demonstrated a 400ns response time when heated by a 10ns laser pulse. Using these nano thermocouples, transient resist heating temperature profiles were for the first time measured at room temperature. Experimental results showed a good agreement with the Green's function model. We also observed a tradeoff in the scaling of thermocouple sensors. The smaller thermocouples may provide higher spatial and temporal resolutions but have poorer temperature resolution. In conclusion, we both modeled and measured the resist heating in EBL. In short exposure time (˜1us or less) the resist heating is nearly adiabatic, while in longer time the heating is dominated by substrate. Nano scale metallic thermocouples were explored and tradeoff was observed in dimension scaling.

EXPLAINING INVERTED-TEMPERATURE LOOPS IN THE QUIET SOLAR CORONA WITH MAGNETOHYDRODYNAMIC WAVE-MODE CONVERSION

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schiff, Avery J.; Cranmer, Steven R.

Coronal loops trace out bipolar, arch-like magnetic fields above the Sun’s surface. Recent measurements that combine rotational tomography, extreme-ultraviolet imaging, and potential-field extrapolation have shown the existence of large loops with inverted-temperature profiles, i.e., loops for which the apex temperature is a local minimum, not a maximum. These “down loops” appear to exist primarily in equatorial quiet regions near solar minimum. We simulate both these and the more prevalent large-scale “up loops” by modeling coronal heating as a time-steady superposition of (1) dissipation of incompressible Alfvén wave turbulence and (2) dissipation of compressive waves formed by mode conversion from themore » initial population of Alfvén waves. We found that when a large percentage (>99%) of the Alfvén waves undergo this conversion, heating is greatly concentrated at the footpoints and stable “down loops” are created. In some cases we found loops with three maxima that are also gravitationally stable. Models that agree with the tomographic temperature data exhibit higher gas pressures for “down loops” than for “up loops,” which is consistent with observations. These models also show a narrow range of Alfvén wave amplitudes: 3 to 6 km s{sup -1} at the coronal base. This is low in comparison to typical observed amplitudes of 20–30 km s{sup -1} in bright X-ray loops. However, the large-scale loops we model are believed to compose a weaker diffuse background that fills much of the volume of the corona. By constraining the physics of loops that underlie quiescent streamers, we hope to better understand the formation of the slow solar wind.« less

Intense cold and mortality in Castile-La Mancha (Spain): study of mortality trigger thresholds from 1975 to 2003

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miron, Isidro J.; Montero, Juan Carlos; Criado-Alvarez, Juan José; Linares, Cristina; Díaz, Julio

2012-01-01

Studies on temperature-mortality time trends especially address heat, so that any contribution on the subject of cold is necessarily of interest. This study describes the modification of the lagged effects of cold on mortality in Castile-La Mancha from 1975 to 2003, with the novelty of also approaching this aspect in terms of mortality trigger thresholds. Cross-correlation functions (CCFs) were thus established with 15 lags, after application of ARIMA models to the mortality data and minimum daily temperatures (from November to March), and the results for the periods 1975-1984, 1985-1994 and 1995-2003 were then compared. In addition, daily mortality residuals for the periods 1975-1989 and 1990-2003 were related to minimum temperatures grouped in 2°C intervals, with a cold threshold temperature being obtained in cases where such residuals increased significantly ( p < 0.05) with respect to the mean for the study period. A cold-related mortality trigger threshold of -3°C was obtained for Ciudad Real for the period 1990-2003. The significant number of lags ( p < 0.05) in the CCFs declined every 10 years in Toledo (5-2-0), Cuenca (4-2-0), Albacete (4-3-0) and Ciudad Real (3-2-1). This meant that, while the trend in cold-related mortality trigger thresholds in the region could not be ascertained, it was possible to establish a reduction in the lagged effects of cold on mortality, attributable to the improvement in socio-economic conditions over the study period. Evidence was shown of the effects of cold on mortality, a finding that renders the adoption of preventive measures advisable in any case where intense cold is forecast.

One Hundred Years of New York City's "Urban Heat Island": Temperature Trends and Public Health Impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosenthal, J. E.; Knowlton, K. M.; Rosenzweig, C.; Goldberg, R.; Kinney, P. L.

2003-12-01

In this paper, we examine the relationship between the historical development of New York City and its effect on the urban climate. Urban "heat islands" (UHI) are created principally by man-made surfaces, including concrete, dark roofs, asphalt lots and roads, which absorb most of the sunlight falling on them and reradiate that energy as heat. Many urban streets have fewer trees and other vegetation to shade buildings, block solar radiation and cool the air by evapotranspiration. The historical development of the NYC heat island effect was assessed in terms of average temperature differences of the city center relative to its surrounding 31-county metropolitan region, comprised of parts of New York State, New Jersey, and Connecticut. Monthly maximum and minimum temperatures for 1900-1997 were obtained from NOAA's National Climatic Data Center, the NASA-Goddard Institute for Space Studies, and the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University for 24 weather stations within the region that are part of the U.S. Historical Climatology Network. Analysis of annual mean temperatures shows an increasing difference between NYC (Central Park weather station) and its surrounding region over the twentieth century. Analysis of the temperature differences over time between NY Central Park (NYCP) station and 23 regional weather stations classified according to distance and level of urbanization show a heat island effect existing in NYC, with mean temperatures in the NYCP Station generally higher than the surrounding stations, ranging from 1.20\\deg C to 3.02\\deg C. A difference of at least 1\\deg C already existed at the beginning of the 20th century between the mean temperature in NYC and its surrounding rural areas, and this difference increased over the twentieth century. There was a significant decrease in the monthly and seasonal variability of the UHI effect over the century. Temperature extremes and summertime heat can create heat stress and other health consequences for urban residents. Public health impacts are assessed as the proportion of heat-related regional mortality estimated to be attributable to New York City's heat island effect during an average 1990's summer. Concentration-response functions describing the temperature-mortality relationship in NYC derived from the epidemiological literature are used to estimate numbers of deaths in a typical 1990s summer and those attributable to the city's heat island effect. The techniques and potential public health benefits of a pilot project to mitigate the heat island effect in NYC will be discussed.

Comparison of three methods of temperature measurement in hypothermic, euthermic, and hyperthermic dogs.

PubMed

Greer, Rebecca J; Cohn, Leah A; Dodam, John R; Wagner-Mann, Colette C; Mann, F A

2007-06-15

To assess the reliability and accuracy of a predictive rectal thermometer, an infrared auricular thermometer designed for veterinary use, and a subcutaneous temperature-sensing microchip for measurement of core body temperature over various temperature conditions in dogs. Prospective study. 8 purpose-bred dogs. A minimum of 7 days prior to study commencement, a subcutaneous temperature-sensing microchip was implanted in 1 of 3 locations (interscapular, lateral aspect of shoulder, or sacral region) in each dog. For comparison with temperatures measured via rectal thermometer, infrared auricular thermometer, and microchip, core body temperature was measured via a thermistor-tipped pulmonary artery (TTPA) catheter. Hypothermia was induced during anesthesia at the time of TTPA catheter placement; on 3 occasions after placement of the catheter, hyperthermia was induced via administration of a low dose of endotoxin. Near-simultaneous duplicate temperature measurements were recorded from the TTPA catheter, the rectal thermometer, auricular thermometer, and subcutaneous microchips during hypothermia, euthermia, and hyperthermia. Reliability (variability) of temperature measurement for each device and agreement between each device measurement and core body temperature were assessed. Variability between duplicate near-simultaneous temperature measurements was greatest for the auricular thermometer and least for the TTPA catheter. Measurements obtained by use of the rectal thermometer were in closest agreement with core body temperature; for all other devices, temperature readings typically underestimated core body temperature. Among the 3 methods of temperature measurement, rectal thermometry provided the most accurate estimation of core body temperature in dogs.

Ecophysiological characterization of Aspergillus carbonarius, Aspergillus tubingensis and Aspergillus niger isolated from grapes in Spanish vineyards.

PubMed

García-Cela, E; Crespo-Sempere, A; Ramos, A J; Sanchis, V; Marin, S

2014-03-03

The aim of this study was to evaluate the diversity of black aspergilli isolated from berries from different agroclimatic regions of Spain. Growth characterization (in terms of temperature and water activity requirements) of Aspergillus carbonarius, Aspergillus tubingensis and Aspergillus niger was carried out on synthetic grape medium. A. tubingensis and A. niger showed higher maximum temperatures for growth (>45 °C versus 40-42 °C), and lower minimum aw requirements (0.83 aw versus 0.87 aw) than A. carbonarius. No differences in growth boundaries due to their geographical origin were found within A. niger aggregate isolates. Conversely, A. carbonarius isolates from the hotter and drier region grew and produced OTA at lower aw than other isolates. However, little genetic diversity in A. carbonarius was observed for the microsatellites tested and the same sequence of β-tubulin gene was observed; therefore intraspecific variability did not correlate with the geographical origin of the isolates or with their ability to produce OTA. Climatic change prediction points to drier and hotter climatic scenarios where A. tubingensis and A. niger could be even more prevalent over A. carbonarius, since they are better adapted to extreme high temperature and drier conditions. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A new approach to the current distribution in field cooled superconductors disks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernstein, P.; Colson, L.; Dupont, L.; Noudem, J.

2018-01-01

The Bean model considers that in field cooled superconducting cylinders with diameter R, the currents flow over all the thickness of the superconductor along circular paths, the minimum radius of which depends on the magnetizing field and the critical current density. A combination of trapped field and levitation force measurements reported recently has shown, however, that in YBCO and MgB2 disks the current flows in fact in a restricted region with thickness t of the superconductor. In this contribution, from measurements carried out on two YBCO and two MgB2 disks, we report the dependence on temperature of t and J p, the current density in this region, as well as that of the field trapped by the samples. The results confirm that t decreases as the temperature decreases. This behaviour is ascribed to the conservation of the magnetic energy stored in the superconductor, which depends on the magnetizing source and not on the measurement temperature. As a consequence, t behaves as {{J}{{p}}}-2/3, while the field trapped along the axis of the cylinder behaves as {{J}{{p}}}1/3. These claims are substantiated by the experimental results. The possibility that J p is equal to the depairing current is investigated.

An analysis of data related to the minimum temperatures for valid testing in cryogenic wind tunnels using nitrogen as the test gas

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hall, R. M.

1976-01-01

The minimum operating temperature which avoids adverse low temperature effects, such as condensation, has been determined at a free stream Mach number of 0.85 for flow over a 0.137 meter airfoil mounted at zero incidence in the Langley 1/3 meter transonic cryogenic tunnel. The onset of low temperature effects is established by comparing the pressure coefficient measured at a given orifice for a particular temperature with those measured at temperatures sufficiently above where low temperature effects might be expected to occur. The pressure distributions over the airfoil are presented in tabular form. In addition, the comparisons of the pressure coefficient as a function of total temperature are presented graphically for chord locations of 0, 25, 50, and 75 percent. Over the 1.2 to 4.5 atmosphere total pressure range investigated, low temperature effects are not detected until total temperatures are 2 K, or more, below free stream saturation temperatures.

Atmospheric Structure and Diurnal Variations at Low Altitudes in the Martian Tropics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hinson, David P.; Spiga, A.; Lewis, S.; Tellmann, S.; Pätzold, M.; Asmar, S.; Häusler, B.

2013-10-01

We are using radio occultation measurements from Mars Express, Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter, and Mars Global Surveyor to characterize the diurnal cycle in the lowest scale height above the surface. We focus on northern spring and summer, using observations from 4 Martian years at local times of 4-5 and 15-17 h. We supplement the observations with results obtained from large-eddy simulations and through data assimilation by the UK spectral version of the LMD Mars Global Circulation Model. We previously investigated the depth of the daytime convective boundary layer (CBL) and its variations with surface elevation and surface properties. We are now examining unusual aspects of the temperature structure observed at night. Most important, predawn profiles in the Tharsis region contain an unexpected layer of neutral static stability at pressures of 200-300 Pa with a depth of 4-5 km. The mixed layer is bounded above by a midlevel temperature inversion and below by another strong inversion adjacent to the surface. The narrow temperature minimum at the base of the midlevel inversion suggests the presence of a water ice cloud layer, with the further implication that radiative cooling at cloud level can induce convective activity at lower altitudes. Conversely, nighttime profiles in Amazonis show no sign of a midlevel inversion or a detached mixed layer. These regional variations in the nighttime temperature structure appear to arise in part from large-scale variations in topography, which have several notable effects. First, the CBL is much deeper in the Tharsis region than in Amazonis, owing to a roughly 6-km difference in surface elevation. Second, large-eddy simulations show that daytime convection is not only deeper above Tharsis but also considerably more intense than it is in Amazonis. Finally, the daytime surface temperatures are comparable in the two regions, so that Tharsis acts as an elevated heat source throughout the CBL. These topographic effects are expected to enhance the vertical mixing of water vapor above elevated terrain, which might lead to the formation and regional confinement of nighttime clouds.

Tracking genes of ecological relevance using a genome scan in two independent regional population samples of Arabis alpina.

PubMed

Poncet, Bénédicte N; Herrmann, Doris; Gugerli, Felix; Taberlet, Pierre; Holderegger, Rolf; Gielly, Ludovic; Rioux, Delphine; Thuiller, Wilfried; Aubert, Serge; Manel, Stéphanie

2010-07-01

Understanding the genetic basis of adaptation in response to environmental variation is fundamental as adaptation plays a key role in the extension of ecological niches to marginal habitats and in ecological speciation. Based on the assumption that some genomic markers are correlated to environmental variables, we aimed to detect loci of ecological relevance in the alpine plant Arabis alpina L. sampled in two regions, the French (99 locations) and the Swiss (109 locations) Alps. We used an unusually large genome scan [825 amplified fragment length polymorphism loci (AFLPs)] and four environmental variables related to temperature, precipitation and topography. We detected linkage disequilibrium among only 3.5% of the considered AFLP loci. A population structure analysis identified no admixture in the study regions, and the French and Swiss Alps were differentiated and therefore could be considered as two independent regions. We applied generalized estimating equations (GEE) to detect ecologically relevant loci separately in the French and Swiss Alps. We identified 78 loci of ecological relevance (9%), which were mainly related to mean annual minimum temperature. Only four of these loci were common across the French and Swiss Alps. Finally, we discuss that the genomic characterization of these ecologically relevant loci, as identified in this study, opens up new perspectives for studying functional ecology in A. alpina, its relatives and other alpine plant species.

Climatic Variability Leads to Later Seasonal Flowering of Floridian Plants

PubMed Central

Von Holle, Betsy; Wei, Yun; Nickerson, David

2010-01-01

Understanding species responses to global change will help predict shifts in species distributions as well as aid in conservation. Changes in the timing of seasonal activities of organisms over time may be the most responsive and easily observable indicator of environmental changes associated with global climate change. It is unknown how global climate change will affect species distributions and developmental events in subtropical ecosystems or if climate change will differentially favor nonnative species. Contrary to previously observed trends for earlier flowering onset of plant species with increasing spring temperatures from mid and higher latitudes, we document a trend for delayed seasonal flowering among plants in Florida. Additionally, there were few differences in reproductive responses by native and nonnative species to climatic changes. We argue that plants in Florida have different reproductive cues than those from more northern climates. With global change, minimum temperatures have become more variable within the temperate-subtropical zone that occurs across the peninsula and this variation is strongly associated with delayed flowering among Florida plants. Our data suggest that climate change varies by region and season and is not a simple case of species responding to consistently increasing temperatures across the region. Research on climate change impacts need to be extended outside of the heavily studied higher latitudes to include subtropical and tropical systems in order to properly understand the complexity of regional and seasonal differences of climate change on species responses. PMID:20657765

Do submesoscale frontal processes ventilate the oxygen minimum zone off Peru?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomsen, S.; Kanzow, T.; Colas, F.; Echevin, V.; Krahmann, G.; Engel, A.

2016-02-01

The Peruvian upwelling region shows pronounced near-surface submesoscale variability including filaments and sharp density fronts. Submesoscale frontal processes can drive large vertical velocities and enhance vertical tracer fluxes in the upper ocean. The associated high temporal and spatial variability poses a large challenge to observational approaches targeting these processes. In this study the role of submesoscale processes for the ventilation of the near-coastal oxygen minimum zone off Peru is investigated. We use satellite based sea surface temperature measurements and multiple high-resolution glider observations of temperature, salinity, oxygen and chlorophyll fluorescence carried out in January and February 2013 off Peru near 14°S during active upwelling. Additionally, high-resolution regional ocean circulation model outputs (ROMS) outputs are analysed. At the beginning of our observational survey a previously upwelled, productive and highly oxygenated water body is found in the mixed layer. Subsequently, a cold filament forms and the waters are moved offshore. After the decay of the filament and the relaxation of the upwelling front, the oxygen enriched surface water is found in the previously less oxygenated thermocline suggesting the occurrence of frontal subduction. A numerical model simulation is used to analyse the evolution of Lagrangian numerical floats in several upwelling filaments, whose vertical structure and hydrographic properties agree well with the observations. The floats trajectories support our interpretation that the subduction of previously upwelled water occurs in filaments off Peru. We find that 40 - 60 % of the floats seeded in the newly upwelled water is subducted within a time period of 5 days. This hightlights the importance of this process in ventilating the oxycline off Peru.

Climate model studies of synchronously rotating planets.

PubMed

Joshi, Manoj

2003-01-01

M stars constitute 75% of main sequence stars though, until recently, their star systems have not been considered suitable places for habitable planets to exist. In this study the climate of a synchronously rotating planet around an M dwarf star is evaluated using a three-dimensional global atmospheric circulation model. The presence of clouds and evaporative cooling at the surface of the planet result in a cooler surface temperature at the subsolar point. Water ice forms at the polar regions and on the dark side, where the minimum temperature lies between -30 degrees C and 0 degrees C. As expected, rainfall is extremely high on the starlit side and extremely low on the dark side. The presence of a dry continent causes higher temperatures on the dayside, and allows accumulation of snow on the nightside. The absence of any oceans leads to higher day-night temperature differences, consistent with previous work. The present study reinforces recent conclusions that synchronously rotating planets within the circumstellar habitable zones of M dwarf stars should be habitable, and therefore M dwarf systems should not be excluded in future searches for exoplanets.

Reduced Urban Heat Island intensity under warmer conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scott, Anna A.; Waugh, Darryn W.; Zaitchik, Ben F.

2018-06-01

The Urban Heat Island (UHI), the tendency for urban areas to be hotter than rural regions, represents a significant health concern in summer as urban populations are exposed to elevated temperatures. A number of studies suggest that the UHI increases during warmer conditions, however there has been no investigation of this for a large ensemble of cities. Here we compare urban and rural temperatures in 54 US cities for 2000–2015 and show that the intensity of the Urban Heat Island, measured here as the differences in daily-minimum or daily-maximum temperatures between urban and rural stations or ΔT, in fact tends to decrease with increasing temperature in most cities (38/54). This holds when investigating daily variability, heat extremes, and variability across climate zones and is primarily driven by changes in rural areas. We relate this change to large-scale or synoptic weather conditions, and find that the lowest ΔT nights occur during moist weather conditions. We also find that warming cities have not experienced an increasing Urban Heat Island effect.

Observational constraints on projections of the ozone response to NOx controls in the Southern San Joaquin Valley

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pusede, S. E.; Wooldridge, P. J.; Browne, E. C.; Russell, A. R.; Rollins, A.; Min, K.; Thomas, J.; Zhang, L.; Brune, W. H.; Henry, S. B.; DiGangi, J. P.; Keutsch, F. N.; Sanders, J. E.; Ren, X.; Weber, R.; Goldstein, A. H.; Cohen, R. C.

2011-12-01

We investigate the impact of NOx reductions on ozone production in the Southern San Joaquin Valley using a large suite of radical and trace gas measurements collected during CalNex-2010 in Bakersfield, California (May 15-June 28) combined with the historical record of O3, nitrogen oxides and temperature from CARB monitoring sites in the region. We calculate the instantaneous ozone production rate (PO3) by radical balance and investigate relationships between PO3 and NOx abundance; finding temperature to be a useful proxy for VOC reactivity. We show Bakersfield photochemistry is at peak PO3 and therefore at a minimum with respect to the effectiveness of NOx controls indicating: (1) more than 30% reductions from present day are required before sizable decreases in ozone will occur and (2) reduction from the lower weekend baseline NOx concentrations will result in weekend PO3 decreases with continued NOx controls at high temperatures when VOC reactivity is largest.

Low-cost fabrication of highly sensitive room temperature hydrogen sensor based on ordered mesoporous Co-doped TiO2 structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Zhong; Haidry, Azhar Ali; Wang, Tao; Yao, Zheng Jun

2017-07-01

The development of cost-effective gas sensors with improved sensing properties and minimum power consumption for room temperature hydrogen leakage monitoring is in increasing demand. In this context, this report focus on the facile fabrication of ordered mesoporous TiO2 via evaporation-induced self-assembly route. With the controlled doping threshold (3%Co-TiO2), the output resistance change to 1000 ppm H2 is ˜4.1 × 103 with the response time of 66 s. The sensor response exhibits power law dependence with an increase in the hydrogen concentration, where the power law coefficient was found not only specific to the kind of target gas but also related to temperature. Further, the effect of structure integrity with doping level and humidity on sensing characteristics is interpreted in terms of variation in surface potential eVS and depletion region w caused by the adsorption of molecular oxygen O2-.

Combining pressure and temperature control in dynamics on energy landscapes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoffmann, Karl Heinz; Christian Schön, J.

2017-05-01

Complex systems from science, technology or mathematics usually appear to be very different in their specific dynamical evolution. However, the concept of an energy landscape with its basins corresponding to locally ergodic regions separated by energy barriers provides a unifying approach to the description of complex systems dynamics. In such systems one is often confronted with the task to control the dynamics such that a certain basin is reached with the highest possible probability. Typically one aims for the global minimum, e.g. when dealing with global optimization problems, but frequently other local minima such as the metastable compounds in materials science are of primary interest. Here we show how this task can be solved by applying control theory using magnesium fluoride as an example system, where different modifications of MgF2 are considered as targets. In particular, we generalize previous work restricted to temperature controls only and present controls which simultaneously adjust temperature and pressure in an optimal fashion.

Optical properties and surface topography of CdCl2 activated CdTe thin films

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patel, S. L.; Purohit, A.; Chander, S.; Dhaka, M. S.

2018-05-01

The effect of post-CdCl2 heat treatment on optical properties and surface topography of evaporated CdTe thin films is investigated. The pristine and thermally annealed films were subjected to UV-Vis spectrophotometer and atomic force microscopy (AFM) to investigate the optical properties and surface topography, respectively. The absorbance is found to be maximum (˜90%) at 320°C temperature and transmittance found to be minimum and almost constant in ultraviolet and visible regions. The direct band gap is increased from 1.42 eV to 2.12 eV with post-CdCl2 annealing temperature. The surface topography revealed that the uniformity is improved with annealing temperature and average surface roughness is found in the range of 83.3-144.3 nm as well as grains have cylindrical hill-like shapes. The investigated results indicate that the post-CdCl2 treated films annealed at 320°C may be well-suitable for thin film solar cells as an absorber layer.