22 CFR 1006.860 - What factors may influence the debarring official's decision?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... not necessarily determinative of your present responsibility. In making a debarment decision, the... official's decision? 1006.860 Section 1006.860 Foreign Relations INTER-AMERICAN FOUNDATION GOVERNMENTWIDE... official's decision? This section lists the mitigating and aggravating factors that the debarring official...

75 FR 3233 - Sulfometuron Methyl Amendment to Reregistration Eligibility Decision

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-01-20

... specified in the 2008 Reregistration Eligibility Decision (RED) for the herbicide sulfometuron methyl. EPA... making process for this herbicide. Stakeholder comments, mitigation proposals, and other information...

2 CFR 180.860 - What factors may influence the debarring official's decision?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... not necessarily determinative of your present responsibility. In making a debarment decision, the... official's decision? 180.860 Section 180.860 Grants and Agreements OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET...'s decision? This section lists the mitigating and aggravating factors that the debarring official...

34 CFR 85.860 - What factors may influence the debarring official's decision?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... not necessarily determinative of your present responsibility. In making a debarment decision, the... decision? 85.860 Section 85.860 Education Office of the Secretary, Department of Education GOVERNMENTWIDE... official's decision? This section lists the mitigating and aggravating factors that the debarring official...

21 CFR 1404.860 - What factors may influence the debarring official's decision?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... not necessarily determinative of your present responsibility. In making a debarment decision, the...'s decision? 1404.860 Section 1404.860 Food and Drugs OFFICE OF NATIONAL DRUG CONTROL POLICY... debarring official's decision? This section lists the mitigating and aggravating factors that the debarring...

The Australian funding debate on quadrivalent HPV vaccine: a case study for the national pharmaceutical policy.

PubMed

Roughead, Elizabeth Ellen; Gilbert, Andrew L; Vitry, Agnes I

2008-12-01

To analyse the media and political reactions to the initial decision of the Pharmaceutical Benefits Advisory Committee (PBAC) to reject funding of the quadrivalent human papilloma virus (HPV) vaccine in Australia. A case study, informed by media reports and government documents, was utilised to examine the reactions of key stakeholders; PBAC, consumers, consumer organisations, pharmaceutical industry, politicians, health professionals and the media to the initial decision to reject funding of HPV vaccine. The initial decision to reject funding of the HPV vaccine led to unprecedented public response with over 300 newspaper articles and calls by consumers, health professionals and politicians to intervene in the decision making process. Misunderstanding of the decision making process, particularly cost-effectiveness assessments, the need for an independent process, the legislated inability of a timely and transparent response from policy makers and the lack of a risk mitigation strategy all played a role in the public outcry. Despite 15 years of implementation of cost-effectiveness assessments there is still a need for improving stakeholder understanding of the decision making process and for timely transfer of complete information. Risk mitigation strategies should be considered as part of the communication plan for all decisions.

7 CFR 1794.17 - Mitigation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) RURAL UTILITIES SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE... (FONSI) and the Record of Decision (ROD). (b) Water and waste program. (1) Mitigation measures which... land use issues shall recognize the rights and responsibilities of landholders in making private land...

29 CFR 1471.860 - What factors may influence the debarring official's decision?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... decision? 1471.860 Section 1471.860 Labor Regulations Relating to Labor (Continued) FEDERAL MEDIATION AND... may influence the debarring official's decision? This section lists the mitigating and aggravating... in this section, is not necessarily determinative of your present responsibility. In making a...

Opinion: The use of natural hazard modeling for decision making under uncertainty

Treesearch

David E. Calkin; Mike Mentis

2015-01-01

Decision making to mitigate the effects of natural hazards is a complex undertaking fraught with uncertainty. Models to describe risks associated with natural hazards have proliferated in recent years. Concurrently, there is a growing body of work focused on developing best practices for natural hazard modeling and to create structured evaluation criteria for complex...

Destructive Interactions Between Mitigation Strategies and the Causes of Unexpected Failures in Natural Hazard Mitigation Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Day, S. J.; Fearnley, C. J.

2013-12-01

Large investments in the mitigation of natural hazards, using a variety of technology-based mitigation strategies, have proven to be surprisingly ineffective in some recent natural disasters. These failures reveal a need for a systematic classification of mitigation strategies; an understanding of the scientific uncertainties that affect the effectiveness of such strategies; and an understanding of how the different types of strategy within an overall mitigation system interact destructively to reduce the effectiveness of the overall mitigation system. We classify mitigation strategies into permanent, responsive and anticipatory. Permanent mitigation strategies such as flood and tsunami defenses or land use restrictions, are both costly and 'brittle': when they malfunction they can increase mortality. Such strategies critically depend on the accuracy of the estimates of expected hazard intensity in the hazard assessments that underpin their design. Responsive mitigation strategies such as tsunami and lahar warning systems rely on capacities to detect and quantify the hazard source events and to transmit warnings fast enough to enable at risk populations to decide and act effectively. Self-warning and voluntary evacuation is also usually a responsive mitigation strategy. Uncertainty in the nature and magnitude of the detected hazard source event is often the key scientific obstacle to responsive mitigation; public understanding of both the hazard and the warnings, to enable decision making, can also be a critical obstacle. Anticipatory mitigation strategies use interpretation of precursors to hazard source events and are used widely in mitigation of volcanic hazards. Their critical limitations are due to uncertainties in time, space and magnitude relationships between precursors and hazard events. Examples of destructive interaction between different mitigation strategies are provided by the Tohoku 2011 earthquake and tsunami; recent earthquakes that have impacted population centers with poor enforcement of building codes, unrealistic expectations of warning systems or failures to understand local seismic damage mechanisms; and the interaction of land use restriction strategies and responsive warning strategies around lahar-prone volcanoes. A more complete understanding of the interactions between these different types of mitigation strategy, especially the consequences for the expectations and behaviors of the populations at risk, requires models of decision-making under high levels of both uncertainty and danger. The Observation-Orientation-Decision-Action (OODA) loop model (Boyd, 1987) may be a particularly useful model. It emphasizes the importance of 'orientation' (the interpretation of observations and assessment of their significance for the observer and decision-maker), the feedback between decisions and subsequent observations and orientations, and the importance of developing mitigation strategies that are flexible and so able to respond to the occurrence of the unexpected. REFERENCE: Boyd, J.R. A Discourse on Winning and Losing [http://dnipogo.org/john-r-boyd/

31 CFR 19.860 - What factors may influence the debarring official's decision?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... debarring official's decision? 19.860 Section 19.860 Money and Finance: Treasury Office of the Secretary of... may influence the debarring official's decision? This section lists the mitigating and aggravating... in this section, is not necessarily determinative of your present responsibility. In making a...

32 CFR 989.21 - Record of decision (ROD).

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ANALYSIS PROCESS (EIAP) § 989.21 Record of decision (ROD). (a) The proponent and the EPF... all the major factors the agency weighed in making its decision, including essential considerations of... avoid, minimize, or mitigate environmental impacts and, if not, explain why not. [64 FR 38129, July 15...

32 CFR 989.21 - Record of decision (ROD).

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ANALYSIS PROCESS (EIAP) § 989.21 Record of decision (ROD). (a) The proponent and the EPF... all the major factors the agency weighed in making its decision, including essential considerations of... avoid, minimize, or mitigate environmental impacts and, if not, explain why not. [64 FR 38129, July 15...

32 CFR 989.21 - Record of decision (ROD).

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ANALYSIS PROCESS (EIAP) § 989.21 Record of decision (ROD). (a) The proponent and the EPF... all the major factors the agency weighed in making its decision, including essential considerations of... avoid, minimize, or mitigate environmental impacts and, if not, explain why not. [64 FR 38129, July 15...

Improving Empirical Approaches to Estimating Local Greenhouse Gas Emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blackhurst, M.; Azevedo, I. L.; Lattanzi, A.

2016-12-01

Evidence increasingly indicates our changing climate will have significant global impacts on public health, economies, and ecosystems. As a result, local governments have become increasingly interested in climate change mitigation. In the U.S., cities and counties representing nearly 15% of the domestic population plan to reduce 300 million metric tons of greenhouse gases over the next 40 years (or approximately 1 ton per capita). Local governments estimate greenhouse gas emissions to establish greenhouse gas mitigation goals and select supporting mitigation measures. However, current practices produce greenhouse gas estimates - also known as a "greenhouse gas inventory " - of empirical quality often insufficient for robust mitigation decision making. Namely, current mitigation planning uses sporadic, annual, and deterministic estimates disaggregated by broad end use sector, obscuring sources of emissions uncertainty, variability, and exogeneity that influence mitigation opportunities. As part of AGU's Thriving Earth Exchange, Ari Lattanzi of City of Pittsburgh, PA recently partnered with Dr. Inez Lima Azevedo (Carnegie Mellon University) and Dr. Michael Blackhurst (University of Pittsburgh) to improve the empirical approach to characterizing Pittsburgh's greenhouse gas emissions. The project will produce first-order estimates of the underlying sources of uncertainty, variability, and exogeneity influencing Pittsburgh's greenhouse gases and discuss implications of mitigation decision making. The results of the project will enable local governments to collect more robust greenhouse gas inventories to better support their mitigation goals and improve measurement and verification efforts.

Estimating the Health Effects of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Strategies: Addressing Parametric, Model, and Valuation Challenges

PubMed Central

Hess, Jeremy J.; Ebi, Kristie L.; Markandya, Anil; Balbus, John M.; Wilkinson, Paul; Haines, Andy; Chalabi, Zaid

2014-01-01

Background: Policy decisions regarding climate change mitigation are increasingly incorporating the beneficial and adverse health impacts of greenhouse gas emission reduction strategies. Studies of such co-benefits and co-harms involve modeling approaches requiring a range of analytic decisions that affect the model output. Objective: Our objective was to assess analytic decisions regarding model framework, structure, choice of parameters, and handling of uncertainty when modeling health co-benefits, and to make recommendations for improvements that could increase policy uptake. Methods: We describe the assumptions and analytic decisions underlying models of mitigation co-benefits, examining their effects on modeling outputs, and consider tools for quantifying uncertainty. Discussion: There is considerable variation in approaches to valuation metrics, discounting methods, uncertainty characterization and propagation, and assessment of low-probability/high-impact events. There is also variable inclusion of adverse impacts of mitigation policies, and limited extension of modeling domains to include implementation considerations. Going forward, co-benefits modeling efforts should be carried out in collaboration with policy makers; these efforts should include the full range of positive and negative impacts and critical uncertainties, as well as a range of discount rates, and should explicitly characterize uncertainty. We make recommendations to improve the rigor and consistency of modeling of health co-benefits. Conclusion: Modeling health co-benefits requires systematic consideration of the suitability of model assumptions, of what should be included and excluded from the model framework, and how uncertainty should be treated. Increased attention to these and other analytic decisions has the potential to increase the policy relevance and application of co-benefits modeling studies, potentially helping policy makers to maximize mitigation potential while simultaneously improving health. Citation: Remais JV, Hess JJ, Ebi KL, Markandya A, Balbus JM, Wilkinson P, Haines A, Chalabi Z. 2014. Estimating the health effects of greenhouse gas mitigation strategies: addressing parametric, model, and valuation challenges. Environ Health Perspect 122:447–455; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1306744 PMID:24583270

Effect of Wind Farm Noise on Local Residents' Decision to Adopt Mitigation Measures.

PubMed

Botelho, Anabela; Arezes, Pedro; Bernardo, Carlos; Dias, Hernâni; Pinto, Lígia M Costa

2017-07-11

Wind turbines' noise is frequently pointed out as the reason for local communities' objection to the installation of wind farms. The literature suggests that local residents feel annoyed by such noise and that, in many instances, this is significant enough to make them adopt noise-abatement interventions on their homes. Aiming at characterizing the relationship between wind turbine noise, annoyance, and mitigating actions, we propose a novel conceptual framework. The proposed framework posits that actual sound pressure levels of wind turbines determine individual homes' noise-abatement decisions; in addition, the framework analyzes the role that self-reported annoyance, and perception of noise levels, plays on the relationship between actual noise pressure levels and those decisions. The application of this framework to a particular case study shows that noise perception and annoyance constitutes a link between the two. Importantly, however, noise also directly affects people's decision to adopt mitigating measures, independently of the reported annoyance.

40 CFR 230.98 - Mitigation banks and in-lieu fee programs.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... must be planned and designed to be self-sustaining over time, but some active management and... based approach, to the extent practicable, while still meeting the decision-making time frames specified... watershed approach to the extent practicable in reviewing proposed mitigation banks and in-lieu fee programs...

40 CFR 230.98 - Mitigation banks and in-lieu fee programs.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... must be planned and designed to be self-sustaining over time, but some active management and... based approach, to the extent practicable, while still meeting the decision-making time frames specified... watershed approach to the extent practicable in reviewing proposed mitigation banks and in-lieu fee programs...

40 CFR 230.98 - Mitigation banks and in-lieu fee programs.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... must be planned and designed to be self-sustaining over time, but some active management and... based approach, to the extent practicable, while still meeting the decision-making time frames specified... watershed approach to the extent practicable in reviewing proposed mitigation banks and in-lieu fee programs...

40 CFR 230.98 - Mitigation banks and in-lieu fee programs.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... must be planned and designed to be self-sustaining over time, but some active management and... based approach, to the extent practicable, while still meeting the decision-making time frames specified... watershed approach to the extent practicable in reviewing proposed mitigation banks and in-lieu fee programs...

40 CFR 230.98 - Mitigation banks and in-lieu fee programs.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... must be planned and designed to be self-sustaining over time, but some active management and... based approach, to the extent practicable, while still meeting the decision-making time frames specified... watershed approach to the extent practicable in reviewing proposed mitigation banks and in-lieu fee programs...

Distributed Trajectory Flexibility Preservation for Traffic Complexity Mitigation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Idris, Husni; Wing, David; Delahaye, Daniel

2009-01-01

The growing demand for air travel is increasing the need for mitigation of air traffic congestion and complexity problems, which are already at high levels. At the same time new information and automation technologies are enabling the distribution of tasks and decisions from the service providers to the users of the air traffic system, with potential capacity and cost benefits. This distribution of tasks and decisions raises the concern that independent user actions will decrease the predictability and increase the complexity of the traffic system, hence inhibiting and possibly reversing any potential benefits. In answer to this concern, the authors propose the introduction of decision-making metrics for preserving user trajectory flexibility. The hypothesis is that such metrics will make user actions naturally mitigate traffic complexity. In this paper, the impact of using these metrics on traffic complexity is investigated. The scenarios analyzed include aircraft in en route airspace with each aircraft meeting a required time of arrival in a one-hour time horizon while mitigating the risk of loss of separation with the other aircraft, thus preserving its trajectory flexibility. The experiments showed promising results in that the individual trajectory flexibility preservation induced self-separation and self-organization effects in the overall traffic situation. The effects were quantified using traffic complexity metrics based on Lyapunov exponents and traffic proximity.

Workshop summary: 'Integrating air quality and climate mitigation - is there a need for new metrics to support decision making?'

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

von Schneidemesser, E.; Schmale, J.; Van Aardenne, J.

2013-12-01

Air pollution and climate change are often treated at national and international level as separate problems under different regulatory or thematic frameworks and different policy departments. With air pollution and climate change being strongly linked with regard to their causes, effects and mitigation options, the integration of policies that steer air pollutant and greenhouse gas emission reductions might result in cost-efficient, more effective and thus more sustainable tackling of the two problems. To support informed decision making and to work towards an integrated air quality and climate change mitigation policy requires the identification, quantification and communication of present-day and potential future co-benefits and trade-offs. The identification of co-benefits and trade-offs requires the application of appropriate metrics that are well rooted in science, easy to understand and reflect the needs of policy, industry and the public for informed decision making. For the purpose of this workshop, metrics were loosely defined as a quantified measure of effect or impact used to inform decision-making and to evaluate mitigation measures. The workshop held on October 9 and 10 and co-organized between the European Environment Agency and the Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies brought together representatives from science, policy, NGOs, and industry to discuss whether current available metrics are 'fit for purpose' or whether there is a need to develop alternative metrics or reassess the way current metrics are used and communicated. Based on the workshop outcome the presentation will (a) summarize the informational needs and current application of metrics by the end-users, who, depending on their field and area of operation might require health, policy, and/or economically relevant parameters at different scales, (b) provide an overview of the state of the science of currently used and newly developed metrics, and the scientific validity of these metrics, (c) identify gaps in the current information base, whether from the scientific development of metrics or their application by different users.

Using Multimodal Input for Autonomous Decision Making for Unmanned Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Neilan, James H.; Cross, Charles; Rothhaar, Paul; Tran, Loc; Motter, Mark; Qualls, Garry; Trujillo, Anna; Allen, B. Danette

2016-01-01

Autonomous decision making in the presence of uncertainly is a deeply studied problem space particularly in the area of autonomous systems operations for land, air, sea, and space vehicles. Various techniques ranging from single algorithm solutions to complex ensemble classifier systems have been utilized in a research context in solving mission critical flight decisions. Realized systems on actual autonomous hardware, however, is a difficult systems integration problem, constituting a majority of applied robotics development timelines. The ability to reliably and repeatedly classify objects during a vehicles mission execution is vital for the vehicle to mitigate both static and dynamic environmental concerns such that the mission may be completed successfully and have the vehicle operate and return safely. In this paper, the Autonomy Incubator proposes and discusses an ensemble learning and recognition system planned for our autonomous framework, AEON, in selected domains, which fuse decision criteria, using prior experience on both the individual classifier layer and the ensemble layer to mitigate environmental uncertainty during operation.

Making the decision to mitigate risk

Treesearch

Ingrid M. Martin; Holly Wise Bender; Carol Raish

2007-01-01

Why individuals choose to mitigate, downplay, or ignore risk has been a topic of much research over the past 25 years for natural- and human-created risks, such as earthquakes, flooding, smoking, contraceptive use, and alcohol consumption. Wildfire has been a relatively recent focus in the natural hazard literature, perhaps a result of several years of catastrophic...

Implementing climate change mitigation in health services: the importance of context.

PubMed

Desmond, Sharon

2016-10-01

Academic interest in strategies to reduce the impact of health services on climate change is quickening. Research has largely focused on local innovations with little consideration of the contextual and systemic elements that influence sustainable development across health systems. A realistic framework specifically to guide decision-making by health care providers is still needed. To address this deficit, the literature is explored in relation to health services and climate change mitigation strategies, and the contextual factors that influence efforts to mitigate climate effects in health service delivery environments are highlighted. A conceptual framework is proposed that offers a model for the pursuit of sustainable development practice in health services. A set of propositions is advanced to provide a systems approach to assist decision-making by decoding the challenges faced in implementing sustainable health services. This has important implications for health care providers, funders and legislators since the financial, policy and regulatory environment of health care, along with its leadership and models of care generally conflict with carbon literacy and climate change mitigation strategies. © The Author(s) 2016.

Voice in Political Decision-Making: The Effect of Group Voice on Perceived Trustworthiness of Decision Makers and Subsequent Acceptance of Decisions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Terwel, Bart W.; Harinck, Fieke; Ellemers, Naomi; Daamen, Dancker D. L.

2010-01-01

The implementation of carbon dioxide capture and storage technology (CCS) is considered an important climate change mitigation strategy, but the viability of this technology will depend on public acceptance of CCS policy decisions. The results of three experiments with students as participants show that whether or not interest groups receive an…

Local dynamics in decision making: The evolution of preference within and across decisions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Hora, Denis; Dale, Rick; Piiroinen, Petri T.; Connolly, Fionnuala

2013-07-01

Within decisions, perceived alternatives compete until one is preferred. Across decisions, the playing field on which these alternatives compete evolves to favor certain alternatives. Mouse cursor trajectories provide rich continuous information related to such cognitive processes during decision making. In three experiments, participants learned to choose symbols to earn points in a discrimination learning paradigm and the cursor trajectories of their responses were recorded. Decisions between two choices that earned equally high-point rewards exhibited far less competition than decisions between choices that earned equally low-point rewards. Using positional coordinates in the trajectories, it was possible to infer a potential field in which the choice locations occupied areas of minimal potential. These decision spaces evolved through the experiments, as participants learned which options to choose. This visualisation approach provides a potential framework for the analysis of local dynamics in decision-making that could help mitigate both theoretical disputes and disparate empirical results.

Cohesion in Military and Aviation Psychology: An Annotated Bibliography and Suggestions for US Army Aviation

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-06-01

serve a significant influence upon perceptions. Strategies for mitigating the detrimental effects of racism and sexism are suggested. Leaders need to...Hedlund, J. (1998). Extending the multilevel theory of team decision making: Effects of feedback and experience in hierarchical teams. Academy of...Colquitt, J.A., & Hedlund, J. (1998). Extending the multilevel theory of team decision making: Effects of feedback and experience in hierarchical

WETLAND MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT TO SUPPORT DECISION MAKING: A VISION FOR THE FUTURE

EPA Science Inventory

The recent report of the National Research Council on wetland mitigation again highlighted the need for regional watershed evaluation as a context from which to determine the efficacy of past regulatory decisions and to improve the effectiveness of future actions. Collaborative ...

Effect of Wind Farm Noise on Local Residents’ Decision to Adopt Mitigation Measures

PubMed Central

Botelho, Anabela; Bernardo, Carlos; Dias, Hernâni; Pinto, Lígia M. Costa

2017-01-01

Wind turbines’ noise is frequently pointed out as the reason for local communities’ objection to the installation of wind farms. The literature suggests that local residents feel annoyed by such noise and that, in many instances, this is significant enough to make them adopt noise-abatement interventions on their homes. Aiming at characterizing the relationship between wind turbine noise, annoyance, and mitigating actions, we propose a novel conceptual framework. The proposed framework posits that actual sound pressure levels of wind turbines determine individual homes’ noise-abatement decisions; in addition, the framework analyzes the role that self-reported annoyance, and perception of noise levels, plays on the relationship between actual noise pressure levels and those decisions. The application of this framework to a particular case study shows that noise perception and annoyance constitutes a link between the two. Importantly, however, noise also directly affects people’s decision to adopt mitigating measures, independently of the reported annoyance. PMID:28696404

Service Oriented Architecture Security Risks and their Mitigation

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-10-01

this section can be mitigated by making use of suitable authentication , confidentiality, integrity, and authorisation standards such as Security...for authorisation . Machines/non-human users should be clearly identified and authenticated by the identity provision and authentication services... authentication , any security related attributes for the subject, and the authorisation decisions given based on the security and privilege attributes

Overview of USEPA's ORD Technical Outreach and Support Activities on Vapor Intrusion Impacts - 03/2008

EPA Science Inventory

The science of determining, characterizing and managing vapor intrusion risks is constantly evolving. Much remains to be done in assisting regulators, consultants and other decision-makers to make informed decisions in mitigating the problem and reducing these risks. ORD has been...

Fuzzy decision-making framework for treatment selection based on the combined QUALIFLEX-TODIM method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ji, Pu; Zhang, Hong-yu; Wang, Jian-qiang

2017-10-01

Treatment selection is a multi-criteria decision-making problem of significant concern in the medical field. In this study, a fuzzy decision-making framework is established for treatment selection. The framework mitigates information loss by introducing single-valued trapezoidal neutrosophic numbers to denote evaluation information. Treatment selection has multiple criteria that remarkably exceed the alternatives. In consideration of this characteristic, the framework utilises the idea of the qualitative flexible multiple criteria method. Furthermore, it considers the risk-averse behaviour of a decision maker by employing a concordance index based on TODIM (an acronym in Portuguese of interactive and multi-criteria decision-making) method. A sensitivity analysis is performed to illustrate the robustness of the framework. Finally, a comparative analysis is conducted to compare the framework with several extant methods. Results indicate the advantages of the framework and its better performance compared with the extant methods.

24 CFR 55.20 - Decision making process.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... appropriate local printed news medium, and must be sent to federal, state, and local public agencies... technological alternatives, hazard reduction methods and related mitigation costs, and environmental impacts. (d...

24 CFR 55.20 - Decision making process.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... appropriate local printed news medium, and must be sent to federal, state, and local public agencies... technological alternatives, hazard reduction methods and related mitigation costs, and environmental impacts. (d...

Decision-support systems for natural-hazards and land-management issues

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dinitz, Laura; Forney, William; Byrd, Kristin

2012-01-01

Scientists at the USGS Western Geographic Science Center are developing decision-support systems (DSSs) for natural-hazards and land-management issues. DSSs are interactive computer-based tools that use data and models to help identify and solve problems. These systems can provide crucial support to policymakers, planners, and communities for making better decisions about long-term natural hazards mitigation and land-use planning.

The Influence of Global Warming Science Views and Sociocultural Factors on Willingness to Mitigate Global Warming

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Herman, Benjamin C.

2015-01-01

The science education field readily recognizes that perceptions about science's claims and nature influence socioscientific decision making. However, sociocultural factors may overshadow these perceptions when people are forced to make personally impacting choices contextualized within actual socioscientific issues. This investigation…

Combat Service Support (CSS) Enabler Functional Assessment (CEFA)

DTIC Science & Technology

1998-07-01

CDR), Combined Arms Support Command (CASCOM) with a tool to aid decision making related to mitigating E/I peacetime (programmatic) and wartime risks...not be fielded by Fiscal Year (FY) 10. Based on their estimates, any decisions , especially reductions in manpower, which rely on the existence of the E...Support (CSS) enablers/initiatives (E/I), thereby providing the Commander (CDR), Combined Arms Support Command (CASCOM) with a tool to aid decision

Institutionalizing fire safety in making land use and development decisions

Treesearch

Marie-Annette Johnson; Marc Mullenix

1995-01-01

Because of three major wildland fires in the past 5 years along the Front Range of the Boulder County area in Colorado, current and potential residents should be told of steps that can reduce the risks of these fire hazards. The Wildfire Hazard Identification and Mitigation System (WHIMS) is used by the county and city to assist in the identification and mitigation of...

Less guilty by reason of adolescence: developmental immaturity, diminished responsibility, and the juvenile death penalty.

PubMed

Steinberg, Laurence; Scott, Elizabeth S

2003-12-01

The authors use a developmental perspective to examine questions about the criminal culpability of juveniles and the juvenile death penalty. Under principles of criminal law, culpability is mitigated when the actor's decision-making capacity is diminished, when the criminal act was coerced, or when the act was out of character. The authors argue that juveniles should not be held to the same standards of criminal responsibility as adults, because adolescents' decision-making capacity is diminished, they are less able to resist coercive influence, and their character is still undergoing change. The uniqueness of immaturity as a mitigating condition argues for a commitment to a legal environment under which most youths are dealt with in a separate justice system and none are eligible for capital punishment. ((c) 2003 APA, all rights reserved)

Decision curve analysis for assessing the usefulness of tests for making decisions to treat: an application to tests for prodromal psychosis.

PubMed

Pulleyblank, Ryan; Chuma, Jefter; Gilbody, Simon M; Thompson, Carl

2013-09-01

For a test to be considered useful for making treatment decisions, it is necessary that making treatment decisions based on the results of the test be a preferable strategy to making treatment decisions without the test. Decision curve analysis is a framework for assessing when a test would be expected to be useful, which integrates evidence of a test's performance characteristics (sensitivity and specificity), condition prevalence among at-risk patients, and patient preferences for treatment. We describe decision curve analysis generally and illustrate its potential through an application to tests for prodromal psychosis. Clinical psychosis is often preceded by a prodromal phase, but not all those with prodromal symptoms proceed to develop full psychosis. Patients identified as at risk for developing psychosis may be considered for proactive treatment to mitigate development of clinically defined psychosis. Tests exist to help identify those at-risk patients most likely to develop psychosis, but it is uncertain when these tests would be considered useful for making proactive treatment decisions. We apply decision curve analysis to results from a systematic review of studies investigating clinical tests for predicting the development of psychosis in at-risk populations, and present resulting decision curves that illustrate when the tests may be expected to be useful for making proactive treatment decisions.

Farmer Decision-Making for Climate Adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lubell, M.; Niles, M.; Salerno, J.

2015-12-01

This talk will provide an overview of several studies of how farmers make decisions about climate change adaptation and mitigation. A particular focus will be the "limiting factors hypothesis", which argues that farmers will respond to the climate variables that usually have the largest impact on their crop productivity. For example, the most limiting factor in California is usually water so how climate change affects water will be the largest drive of climate adaptation decisions. This basic idea is drawn from the broader theory of "psychological distance", which argue that human decisions are more attuned to ideas that are psychologically closer in space, time, or other factors. Empirical examples come from California, New Zealand, and Africa.

Comprehensive mitigation framework for concurrent application of multiple clinical practice guidelines.

PubMed

Wilk, Szymon; Michalowski, Martin; Michalowski, Wojtek; Rosu, Daniela; Carrier, Marc; Kezadri-Hamiaz, Mounira

2017-02-01

In this work we propose a comprehensive framework based on first-order logic (FOL) for mitigating (identifying and addressing) interactions between multiple clinical practice guidelines (CPGs) applied to a multi-morbid patient while also considering patient preferences related to the prescribed treatment. With this framework we respond to two fundamental challenges associated with clinical decision support: (1) concurrent application of multiple CPGs and (2) incorporation of patient preferences into the decision making process. We significantly expand our earlier research by (1) proposing a revised and improved mitigation-oriented representation of CPGs and secondary medical knowledge for addressing adverse interactions and incorporating patient preferences and (2) introducing a new mitigation algorithm. Specifically, actionable graphs representing CPGs allow for parallel and temporal activities (decisions and actions). Revision operators representing secondary medical knowledge support temporal interactions and complex revisions across multiple actionable graphs. The mitigation algorithm uses the actionable graphs, revision operators and available (and possibly incomplete) patient information represented in FOL. It relies on a depth-first search strategy to find a valid sequence of revisions and uses theorem proving and model finding techniques to identify applicable revision operators and to establish a management scenario for a given patient if one exists. The management scenario defines a safe (interaction-free) and preferred set of activities together with possible patient states. We illustrate the use of our framework with a clinical case study describing two patients who suffer from chronic kidney disease, hypertension, and atrial fibrillation, and who are managed according to CPGs for these diseases. While in this paper we are primarily concerned with the methodological aspects of mitigation, we also briefly discuss a high-level proof of concept implementation of the proposed framework in the form of a clinical decision support system (CDSS). The proposed mitigation CDSS "insulates" clinicians from the complexities of the FOL representations and provides semantically meaningful summaries of mitigation results. Ultimately we plan to implement the mitigation CDSS within our MET (Mobile Emergency Triage) decision support environment. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Contrasting models of driver behaviour in emergencies using retrospective verbalisations and network analysis.

PubMed

Banks, Victoria A; Stanton, Neville A

2015-01-01

Automated assistance in driving emergencies aims to improve the safety of our roads by avoiding or mitigating the effects of accidents. However, the behavioural implications of such systems remain unknown. This paper introduces the driver decision-making in emergencies (DDMiEs) framework to investigate how the level and type of automation may affect driver decision-making and subsequent responses to critical braking events using network analysis to interrogate retrospective verbalisations. Four DDMiE models were constructed to represent different levels of automation within the driving task and its effects on driver decision-making. Findings suggest that whilst automation does not alter the decision-making pathway (e.g. the processes between hazard detection and response remain similar), it does appear to significantly weaken the links between information-processing nodes. This reflects an unintended yet emergent property within the task network that could mean that we may not be improving safety in the way we expect. This paper contrasts models of driver decision-making in emergencies at varying levels of automation using the Southampton University Driving Simulator. Network analysis of retrospective verbalisations indicates that increasing the level of automation in driving emergencies weakens the link between information-processing nodes essential for effective decision-making.

Automation bias: a systematic review of frequency, effect mediators, and mitigators

PubMed Central

Roudsari, Abdul; Wyatt, Jeremy C

2011-01-01

Automation bias (AB)—the tendency to over-rely on automation—has been studied in various academic fields. Clinical decision support systems (CDSS) aim to benefit the clinical decision-making process. Although most research shows overall improved performance with use, there is often a failure to recognize the new errors that CDSS can introduce. With a focus on healthcare, a systematic review of the literature from a variety of research fields has been carried out, assessing the frequency and severity of AB, the effect mediators, and interventions potentially mitigating this effect. This is discussed alongside automation-induced complacency, or insufficient monitoring of automation output. A mix of subject specific and freetext terms around the themes of automation, human–automation interaction, and task performance and error were used to search article databases. Of 13 821 retrieved papers, 74 met the inclusion criteria. User factors such as cognitive style, decision support systems (DSS), and task specific experience mediated AB, as did attitudinal driving factors such as trust and confidence. Environmental mediators included workload, task complexity, and time constraint, which pressurized cognitive resources. Mitigators of AB included implementation factors such as training and emphasizing user accountability, and DSS design factors such as the position of advice on the screen, updated confidence levels attached to DSS output, and the provision of information versus recommendation. By uncovering the mechanisms by which AB operates, this review aims to help optimize the clinical decision-making process for CDSS developers and healthcare practitioners. PMID:21685142

Automation bias: a systematic review of frequency, effect mediators, and mitigators.

PubMed

Goddard, Kate; Roudsari, Abdul; Wyatt, Jeremy C

2012-01-01

Automation bias (AB)--the tendency to over-rely on automation--has been studied in various academic fields. Clinical decision support systems (CDSS) aim to benefit the clinical decision-making process. Although most research shows overall improved performance with use, there is often a failure to recognize the new errors that CDSS can introduce. With a focus on healthcare, a systematic review of the literature from a variety of research fields has been carried out, assessing the frequency and severity of AB, the effect mediators, and interventions potentially mitigating this effect. This is discussed alongside automation-induced complacency, or insufficient monitoring of automation output. A mix of subject specific and freetext terms around the themes of automation, human-automation interaction, and task performance and error were used to search article databases. Of 13 821 retrieved papers, 74 met the inclusion criteria. User factors such as cognitive style, decision support systems (DSS), and task specific experience mediated AB, as did attitudinal driving factors such as trust and confidence. Environmental mediators included workload, task complexity, and time constraint, which pressurized cognitive resources. Mitigators of AB included implementation factors such as training and emphasizing user accountability, and DSS design factors such as the position of advice on the screen, updated confidence levels attached to DSS output, and the provision of information versus recommendation. By uncovering the mechanisms by which AB operates, this review aims to help optimize the clinical decision-making process for CDSS developers and healthcare practitioners.

Beyond decision making: class, community organizations, and the healthwork of people living with HIV/AIDS. Contributions from institutional ethnographic research.

PubMed

Mykhalovskiy, Eric

2008-01-01

The consolidation of antiretroviral therapy as the primary biomedical response to HIV infection in the global North has occasioned a growing interest in the health decision making of people living with HIV (PHAs). This interest is burdened by the weight of a behaviorist theoretical orientation that limits decision making to individual acts of rational choice. This article offers an alternative way to understand how PHAs come to take (or not take) biomedical treatments. Drawing on institutional ethnographic research conducted in Toronto, Canada, it explores how the "healthwork" of coming to take (or not take) treatments is organized by extended relations of biomedical knowledge. The article focuses on two aspects of the knowledge relations of coming to take pharmaceutical medications that transcend the conceptual and relational terrain of rational decision-making perspectives. First, it explores disjunctures between the everyday healthwork of poor, socially marginalized PHAs and the terms of biomedical decision making. Second, it investigates the knowledge-mediating activities of community-based organizations that help mitigate those disjunctures.

Engaging Gatekeepers, Optimizing Decision Making, and Mitigating Bias: Design Specifications for Systemic Diversity Interventions.

PubMed

Vinkenburg, Claartje J

2017-06-01

In this contribution to the Journal of Applied Behavioral Science Special Issue on Understanding Diversity Dynamics in Systems: Social Equality as an Organization Change Issue, I develop and describe design specifications for systemic diversity interventions in upward mobility career systems, aimed at optimizing decision making through mitigating bias by engaging gatekeepers. These interventions address the paradox of meritocracy that underlies the surprising lack of diversity at the top of the career pyramid in these systems. I ground the design specifications in the limited empirical evidence on "what works" in systemic interventions. Specifically, I describe examples from interventions in academic settings, including a bias literacy program, participatory modeling, and participant observation. The design specifications, paired with inspirational examples of successful interventions, should assist diversity officers and consultants in designing and implementing interventions to promote the advancement to and representation of nondominant group members at the top of the organizational hierarchy.

Engaging Gatekeepers, Optimizing Decision Making, and Mitigating Bias: Design Specifications for Systemic Diversity Interventions

PubMed Central

Vinkenburg, Claartje J.

2017-01-01

In this contribution to the Journal of Applied Behavioral Science Special Issue on Understanding Diversity Dynamics in Systems: Social Equality as an Organization Change Issue, I develop and describe design specifications for systemic diversity interventions in upward mobility career systems, aimed at optimizing decision making through mitigating bias by engaging gatekeepers. These interventions address the paradox of meritocracy that underlies the surprising lack of diversity at the top of the career pyramid in these systems. I ground the design specifications in the limited empirical evidence on “what works” in systemic interventions. Specifically, I describe examples from interventions in academic settings, including a bias literacy program, participatory modeling, and participant observation. The design specifications, paired with inspirational examples of successful interventions, should assist diversity officers and consultants in designing and implementing interventions to promote the advancement to and representation of nondominant group members at the top of the organizational hierarchy. PMID:28546644

The influence of mitigation evidence, ethnicity, and SES on death penalty decisions by European American and Latino venire persons.

PubMed

Espinoza, Russ K E; Willis-Esqueda, Cynthia

2015-04-01

The purpose of the research was to determine whether European American and Latino mock jurors would demonstrate bias in death penalty decision making when mitigation evidence and defendant ethnicity and socioeconomic status (SES) were varied. A total of 561 actual venire persons acted as mock jurors and read a trial transcript that varied a defendant's case information (mitigating circumstances: strong/weak, defendant ethnicity: European American/Latino, and defendant SES: low/high). European American jurors recommended the death penalty significantly more often for the low SES Latino defendant when strength of mitigation evidence was weak. In addition, they also assigned this defendant higher culpability ratings and lower ratings on positive personality trait measures compared with all other conditions. Strong mitigation evidence contributed to lower guilt ratings by European American jurors for the high SES European American defendant. Latino jurors did not differ in their death penalty sentencing across defendant mitigation, ethnicity, or SES conditions. Discussion of in-group favoritism and out-group derogation, as well as suggestions for procedures to diminish juror bias in death penalty cases, is provided. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Economic assessment of the use value of geospatial information

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bernknopf, Richard L.; Shapiro, Carl D.

2015-01-01

Geospatial data inform decision makers. An economic model that involves application of spatial and temporal scientific, technical, and economic data in decision making is described. The value of information (VOI) contained in geospatial data is the difference between the net benefits (in present value terms) of a decision with and without the information. A range of technologies is used to collect and distribute geospatial data. These technical activities are linked to examples that show how the data can be applied in decision making, which is a cultural activity. The economic model for assessing the VOI in geospatial data for decision making is applied to three examples: (1) a retrospective model about environmental regulation of agrochemicals; (2) a prospective model about the impact and mitigation of earthquakes in urban areas; and (3) a prospective model about developing private–public geospatial information for an ecosystem services market. Each example demonstrates the potential value of geospatial information in a decision with uncertain information.

Analysis of Trajectory Flexibility Preservation Impact on Traffic Complexity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Idris, Husni; El-Wakil, Tarek; Wing, David J.

2009-01-01

The growing demand for air travel is increasing the need for mitigation of air traffic congestion and complexity problems, which are already at high levels. At the same time new information and automation technologies are enabling the distribution of tasks and decisions from the service providers to the users of the air traffic system, with potential capacity and cost benefits. This distribution of tasks and decisions raises the concern that independent user actions will decrease the predictability and increase the complexity of the traffic system, hence inhibiting and possibly reversing any potential benefits. In answer to this concern, the authors proposed the introduction of decision-making metrics for preserving user trajectory flexibility. The hypothesis is that such metrics will make user actions naturally mitigate traffic complexity. In this paper, the impact of using these metrics on traffic complexity is investigated. The scenarios analyzed include aircraft in en route airspace with each aircraft meeting a required time of arrival in a one-hour time horizon while mitigating the risk of loss of separation with the other aircraft, thus preserving its trajectory flexibility. The experiments showed promising results in that the individual trajectory flexibility preservation induced self-separation and self-organization effects in the overall traffic situation. The effects were quantified using traffic complexity metrics, namely dynamic density indicators, which indicated that using the flexibility metrics reduced aircraft density and the potential of loss of separation.

Staged decision making based on probabilistic forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Booister, Nikéh; Verkade, Jan; Werner, Micha; Cranston, Michael; Cumiskey, Lydia; Zevenbergen, Chris

2016-04-01

Flood forecasting systems reduce, but cannot eliminate uncertainty about the future. Probabilistic forecasts explicitly show that uncertainty remains. However, as - compared to deterministic forecasts - a dimension is added ('probability' or 'likelihood'), with this added dimension decision making is made slightly more complicated. A technique of decision support is the cost-loss approach, which defines whether or not to issue a warning or implement mitigation measures (risk-based method). With the cost-loss method a warning will be issued when the ratio of the response costs to the damage reduction is less than or equal to the probability of the possible flood event. This cost-loss method is not widely used, because it motivates based on only economic values and is a technique that is relatively static (no reasoning, yes/no decision). Nevertheless it has high potential to improve risk-based decision making based on probabilistic flood forecasting because there are no other methods known that deal with probabilities in decision making. The main aim of this research was to explore the ways of making decision making based on probabilities with the cost-loss method better applicable in practice. The exploration began by identifying other situations in which decisions were taken based on uncertain forecasts or predictions. These cases spanned a range of degrees of uncertainty: from known uncertainty to deep uncertainty. Based on the types of uncertainties, concepts of dealing with situations and responses were analysed and possible applicable concepts where chosen. Out of this analysis the concepts of flexibility and robustness appeared to be fitting to the existing method. Instead of taking big decisions with bigger consequences at once, the idea is that actions and decisions are cut-up into smaller pieces and finally the decision to implement is made based on economic costs of decisions and measures and the reduced effect of flooding. The more lead-time there is in flood event management, the more damage can be reduced. And with decisions based on probabilistic forecasts, partial decisions can be made earlier in time (with a lower probability) and can be scaled up or down later in time when there is more certainty; whether the event takes place or not. Partial decisions are often more cheap, or shorten the final mitigation-time at the moment when there is more certainty. The proposed method is tested on Stonehaven, on the Carron River in Scotland. Decisions to implement demountable defences in the town are currently made based on a very short lead-time due to the absence of certainty. Application showed that staged decision making is possible and gives the decision maker more time to respond to a situation. The decision maker is able to take a lower regret decision with higher uncertainty and less related negative consequences. Although it is not possible to quantify intangible effects, it is part of the analysis to reduce these effects. Above all, the proposed approach has shown to be a possible improvement in economic terms and opens up possibilities of more flexible and robust decision making.

An Analytic Model for DoD Investment & Divestment Decisions (Briefing Charts)

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-05-01

cost drives Strategic; Performance mixed; cost drives Invest Insurance Risk Mitigation √ “Making Trade-Offs in Corporate Portfolio Decisions...Effects (SE) + Insurance Intended externalities, unintended consequences Are SE measureable? Do they add/subtract so NPV is worthwhile? Deadweight...Sustainable Cost Effective Cost is supportable, LPO outsourced, or is income Advantageous NPV? Y Y Y Y either N N N N Secondary Effects+ Insurance

Ecological impact assessments fail to reduce risk of bat casualties at wind farms.

PubMed

Lintott, Paul R; Richardson, Suzanne M; Hosken, David J; Fensome, Sophie A; Mathews, Fiona

2016-11-07

Demand for renewable energy is rising exponentially. While this has benefits in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, there may be costs to biodiversity [1]. Environmental Impact Assessments (EIAs) are the main tool used across the world to predict the overall positive and negative effects of renewable energy developments before planning consent is given, and the Ecological Impact Assessments (EcIAs) within them assess their species-specific effects. Given that EIAs are undertaken globally, are extremely expensive, and are enshrined in legislation, their place in evidence-based decision making deserves evaluation. Here we assess how well EIAs of wind-farm developments protect bats. We found they do not predict the risks to bats accurately, and even in those cases where high risk was correctly identified, the mitigation deployed did not avert the risk. Given that the primary purpose of an EIA is to make planning decisions evidence-based, our results indicate that EIA mitigation strategies used to date have been ineffective in protecting bats. In the future, greater emphasis should be placed on assessing the actual impacts post-construction and on developing effective mitigation strategies. Copyright © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

GLIMPSE: A decision support tool for simultaneously achieving our air quality management and climate change mitigation goals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pinder, R. W.; Akhtar, F.; Loughlin, D. H.; Henze, D. K.; Bowman, K. W.

2012-12-01

Poor air quality, ecosystem damages, and climate change all are caused by the combustion of fossil fuels, yet environmental management often addresses each of these challenges separately. This can lead to sub-optimal strategies and unintended consequences. Here we present GLIMPSE -- a decision support tool for simultaneously achieving our air quality and climate change mitigation goals. GLIMPSE comprises of two types of models, (i) the adjoint of the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model, to calculate the relationship between emissions and impacts at high spatial resolution, and (ii) the MARKAL energy system model, to calculate the relationship between energy technologies and emissions. This presentation will demonstrate how GLIMPSE can be used to explore energy scenarios to better achieve both improved air quality and mitigate climate change. Second, this presentation will discuss how space-based observations can be incorporated into GLIMPSE to improve decision-making. NASA satellite products, namely ozone radiative forcing from the Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES), are used to extend GLIMPSE to include the impact of emissions on ozone radiative forcing. This provides a much needed observational constraint on ozone radiative forcing.

Analytical group decision making in natural resources: Methodology and application

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schmoldt, D.L.; Peterson, D.L.

2000-01-01

Group decision making is becoming increasingly important in natural resource management and associated scientific applications, because multiple values are treated coincidentally in time and space, multiple resource specialists are needed, and multiple stakeholders must be included in the decision process. Decades of social science research on decision making in groups have provided insights into the impediments to effective group processes and on techniques that can be applied in a group context. Nevertheless, little integration and few applications of these results have occurred in resource management decision processes, where formal groups are integral, either directly or indirectly. A group decision-making methodology is introduced as an effective approach for temporary, formal groups (e.g., workshops). It combines the following three components: (1) brainstorming to generate ideas; (2) the analytic hierarchy process to produce judgments, manage conflict, enable consensus, and plan for implementation; and (3) a discussion template (straw document). Resulting numerical assessments of alternative decision priorities can be analyzed statistically to indicate where group member agreement occurs and where priority values are significantly different. An application of this group process to fire research program development in a workshop setting indicates that the process helps focus group deliberations; mitigates groupthink, nondecision, and social loafing pitfalls; encourages individual interaction; identifies irrational judgments; and provides a large amount of useful quantitative information about group preferences. This approach can help facilitate scientific assessments and other decision-making processes in resource management.

Evaluation of the effectiveness of a variable advisory speed system on queue mitigation in work zones.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-04-01

Variable Advisory Speed Systems (VASS) provide drivers with advanced warning regarding traffic speeds downstream to help them make better decisions. Vehicle use on highways is increasing and the need to improve highways brings increased construction ...

Perception, Action, and Cognition of Football Referees in Extreme Temperatures: Impact on Decision Performance.

PubMed

Gaoua, Nadia; de Oliveira, Rita F; Hunter, Steve

2017-01-01

Different professional domains require high levels of physical performance alongside fast and accurate decision-making. Construction workers, police officers, firefighters, elite sports men and women, the military and emergency medical professionals are often exposed to hostile environments with limited options for behavioral coping strategies. In this (mini) review we use football refereeing as an example to discuss the combined effect of intense physical activity and extreme temperatures on decision-making and suggest an explicative model. In professional football competitions can be played in temperatures ranging from -5°C in Norway to 30°C in Spain for example. Despite these conditions, the referee's responsibility is to consistently apply the laws fairly and uniformly, and to ensure the rules are followed without waning or adversely influencing the competitiveness of the play. However, strenuous exercise in extreme environments imposes increased physiological and psychological stress that can affect decision-making. Therefore, the physical exertion required to follow the game and the thermal strain from the extreme temperatures may hinder the ability of referees to make fast and accurate decisions. Here, we review literature on the physical and cognitive requirements of football refereeing and how extreme temperatures may affect referees' decisions. Research suggests that both hot and cold environments have a negative impact on decision-making but data specific to decision-making is still lacking. A theoretical model of decision-making under the constraint of intense physical activity and thermal stress is suggested. Future naturalistic studies are needed to validate this model and provide clear recommendations for mitigating strategies.

Perception, Action, and Cognition of Football Referees in Extreme Temperatures: Impact on Decision Performance

PubMed Central

Gaoua, Nadia; de Oliveira, Rita F.; Hunter, Steve

2017-01-01

Different professional domains require high levels of physical performance alongside fast and accurate decision-making. Construction workers, police officers, firefighters, elite sports men and women, the military and emergency medical professionals are often exposed to hostile environments with limited options for behavioral coping strategies. In this (mini) review we use football refereeing as an example to discuss the combined effect of intense physical activity and extreme temperatures on decision-making and suggest an explicative model. In professional football competitions can be played in temperatures ranging from -5°C in Norway to 30°C in Spain for example. Despite these conditions, the referee’s responsibility is to consistently apply the laws fairly and uniformly, and to ensure the rules are followed without waning or adversely influencing the competitiveness of the play. However, strenuous exercise in extreme environments imposes increased physiological and psychological stress that can affect decision-making. Therefore, the physical exertion required to follow the game and the thermal strain from the extreme temperatures may hinder the ability of referees to make fast and accurate decisions. Here, we review literature on the physical and cognitive requirements of football refereeing and how extreme temperatures may affect referees’ decisions. Research suggests that both hot and cold environments have a negative impact on decision-making but data specific to decision-making is still lacking. A theoretical model of decision-making under the constraint of intense physical activity and thermal stress is suggested. Future naturalistic studies are needed to validate this model and provide clear recommendations for mitigating strategies. PMID:28912742

The adaptive decision-making, risky decision, and decision-making style of Internet gaming disorder.

PubMed

Ko, C-H; Wang, P-W; Liu, T-L; Chen, C-S; Yen, C-F; Yen, J-Y

2017-07-01

Persistent gaming, despite acknowledgment of its negative consequences, is a major criterion for individuals with Internet gaming disorder (IGD). This study evaluated the adaptive decision-making, risky decision, and decision-making style of individuals with IGD. We recruited 87 individuals with IGD and 87 without IGD (matched controls). All participants underwent an interview based on the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (5th Edition) diagnostic criteria for IGD and completed an adaptive decision-making task; the Preference for Intuition and Deliberation Scale, Chen Internet Addiction Scale, and Barratt Impulsivity Scale were also assessed on the basis of the information from the diagnostic interviews. The results demonstrated that the participants in both groups tend to make more risky choices in advantage trials where their expected value (EV) was more favorable than those of the riskless choice. The tendency to make a risky choice in advantage trials was stronger among IGD group than that among controls. Participants of both groups made more risky choices in the loss domain, a risky option to loss more versus sure loss option, than they did in the gain domain, a risky option to gain more versus sure gain. Furthermore, the participants with IGD made more risky choices in the gain domain than did the controls. Participants with IGD showed higher and lower preferences for intuitive and deliberative decision-making styles, respectively, than controls and their preferences for intuition and deliberation were positively and negatively associated with IGD severity, respectively. These results suggested that individuals with IGD have elevated EV sensitivity for decision-making. However, they demonstrated risky preferences in the gain domain and preferred an intuitive rather than deliberative decision-making style. This might explain why they continue Internet gaming despite negative consequences. Thus, therapists should focus more on decision-making styles and promote deliberative thinking processes to mitigate the long-term negative consequences of IGD. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Structuring Disaster Recovery Infrastructure Decisions: Lessons from Boulder County's 2013 Flood Recovery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clavin, C.; Petropoulos, Z.

2017-12-01

Recovery phase decision making processes, as compared to mitigation and response phase decision making processes, require communities make significant financial and capital decisions in the months after a disaster. Collectively, these investments may significantly contribute to the resilience of a community to future hazards. Pre-disaster administrative decisions are well-established within existing planning processes. Post-event recovery requires community decision makers to quickly evaluate technical proposals and manage significant recovery financial resources to ensure their community rebuilds in a manner that will be more resilient to future events. These technical and administrative hurdles in the aftermath of a disaster create a challenging atmosphere to make sound, scientifically-informed decisions leading to resilient recovery. In September 2013, a 1,000-year rain event that resulted in flooding throughout the Front Range of Colorado, significantly impacting Boulder County. While the event is long past, disaster recovery efforts still continue in parts of Boulder County. Boulder County officials formed a county collaborative that adapted the NIST Community Resilience Planning Guide for Buildings and Infrastructure Systems to facilitate a goals-based multi-criteria decision making process. Rather than use hazard-based information to guide infrastructure design, the county's decision process established time-to-recovery goals for infrastructure systems that were used as criteria for project design. This presentation explores the decision-making process employed by Boulder County to specify design standards for resilient rebuilding of infrastructure systems and examine how this infrastructure planning model could be extrapolated to other situations where there is uncertainty regarding future infrastructure design standards.

Information Needs Assessment for Coastal and Marine Management and Policy: Ecosystem Services Under Changing Climatic, Land Use, and Demographic Conditions.

PubMed

Goldsmith, Kaitlin A; Granek, Elise F; Lubitow, Amy

2015-12-01

Changing climatic, demographic, and land use conditions are projected to alter the provisioning of ecosystem services in estuarine, coastal, and nearshore marine ecosystems, necessitating mitigation and adaptation policies and management. The current paradigm of research efforts occurring in parallel to, rather than in collaboration with, decision makers will be insufficient for the rapid responses required to adapt to and mitigate for projected changing conditions. Here, we suggest a different paradigm: one where research begins by engaging decision makers in the identification of priority data needs (biophysical, economic, and social). This paper uses synthesized interview data to provide insight into the varied demands for scientific research as described by decision makers working on coastal issues in Oregon, USA. The findings highlight the need to recognize (1) the differing framing of ecosystem services by decision makers versus scientists; and (2) the differing data priorities relevant to inland versus coastal decision makers. The findings further serve to highlight the need for decision makers, scientists, and funders to engage in increased communication. This research is an important first step in advancing efforts toward evidence-based decision making in Oregon and provides a template for further research across the US.

Repetitive flood victims and acceptance of FEMA mitigation offers: an analysis with community-system policy implications.

PubMed

Kick, Edward L; Fraser, James C; Fulkerson, Gregory M; McKinney, Laura A; De Vries, Daniel H

2011-07-01

Of all natural disasters, flooding causes the greatest amount of economic and social damage. The United States' Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) uses a number of hazard mitigation grant programmes for flood victims, including mitigation offers to relocate permanently repetitive flood loss victims. This study examines factors that help to explain the degree of difficulty repetitive flood loss victims experience when they make decisions about relocating permanently after multiple flood losses. Data are drawn from interviews with FEMA officials and a survey of flood victims from eight repetitive flooding sites. The qualitative and quantitative results show the importance of rational choices by flood victims in their mitigation decisions, as they relate to financial variables, perceptions of future risk, attachments to home and community, and the relationships between repetitive flood loss victims and the local flood management officials who help them. The results offer evidence to suggest the value of a more community-system approach to FEMA relocation practices. © 2011 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2011.

Combining Hydrological Modeling and Remote Sensing Observations to Enable Data-Driven Decision Making for Devils Lake Flood Mitigation in a Changing Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhang, Xiaodong; Kirilenko, Andrei; Lim, Howe; Teng, Williams

2010-01-01

This slide presentation reviews work to combine the hydrological models and remote sensing observations to monitor Devils Lake in North Dakota, to assist in flood damage mitigation. This reports on the use of a distributed rainfall-runoff model, HEC-HMS, to simulate the hydro-dynamics of the lake watershed, and used NASA's remote sensing data, including the TRMM Multi-Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) and AIRS surface air temperature, to drive the model.

Parental decisions, child health and valuation of avoiding arsenic in drinking water in rural Bangladesh.

PubMed

Aziz, Sonia N; Boyle, Kevin J; Crocker, Tom

2015-03-01

Arsenic contamination of groundwater in Bangladesh is a widespread public health hazard. Water sources without high arsenic levels are scarce, affecting people's availability for work and other activities when they have to seek safe water to drink. While children are particularly susceptible to chronic arsenic exposure, limited information and heavy constraints on resources may preclude people in developing countries from taking protective actions. Since parents are primary decision-makers for children, a model of stochastic decision-making analytically linking parent health and child health is used to frame the valuation of avoiding arsenic exposure using an averting behavior model. The results show that safe drinking water programs do work and that people do take protective actions. The results can help guide public health mitigation policies, and examine whether factors such as child health and time required for remediation have an effect on mitigation measures.

GEONETCast Americas - Architecture

Science.gov Websites

, - Improving weather information, forecasting and warning, - Improving the management and protection of information as a basis for sound decision making, and will enhance delivery of benefits to society." as management of energy resources, - Understanding, assessing, predicting, mitigating, and adapting to climate

Development of an integrated model for energy systems planning and carbon dioxide mitigation under uncertainty - Tradeoffs between two-level decision makers.

PubMed

Jin, S W; Li, Y P; Xu, L P

2018-07-01

A bi-level fuzzy programming (BFLP) method was developed for energy systems planning (ESP) and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) mitigation under uncertainty. BFLP could handle fuzzy information and leader-follower problem in decision-making processes. It could also address the tradeoffs among different decision makers in two decision-making levels through prioritizing the most important goal. Then, a BFLP-ESP model was formulated for planning energy system of Beijing, in which the upper-level objective is to minimize CO 2 emission and the lower-level objective is to minimize the system cost. Results provided a range of decision alternatives that corresponded to a tradeoff between system optimality and reliability under uncertainty. Compared to the single-level model with a target to minimize system cost, the amounts of pollutant/CO 2 emissions from BFLP-ESP were reduced since the study system would prefer more clean energies (i.e. natural gas, LPG and electricity) to replace coal fuel. Decision alternatives from BFLP were more beneficial for supporting Beijing to adjust its energy mix and enact its emission-abatement policy. Results also revealed that the low-carbon policy for power plants (e.g., shutting down all coal-fired power plants) could lead to a potentially increment of imported energy for Beijing, which would increase the risk of energy shortage. The findings could help decision makers analyze the interactions between different stakeholders in ESP and provide useful information for policy design under uncertainty. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Decision Making Methodology to Mitigate Damage From Glacial Lake Outburst Floods From Imja Lake in Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McKinney, D. C.; Cuellar, A. D.

2015-12-01

Climate change has accelerated glacial retreat in high altitude glaciated regions of Nepal leading to the growth and formation of glacier lakes. Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOF) are sudden events triggered by an earthquake, moraine failure or other shock that causes a sudden outflow of water. These floods are catastrophic because of their sudden onset, the difficulty predicting them, and enormous quantity of water and debris rapidly flooding downstream areas. Imja Lake in the Himalaya of Nepal has experienced accelerated growth since it first appeared in the 1960s. Communities threatened by a flood from Imja Lake have advocated for projects to adapt to the increasing threat of a GLOF. Nonetheless, discussions surrounding projects for Imja have not included a rigorous analysis of the potential consequences of a flood, probability of an event, or costs of mitigation projects in part because this information is unknown or uncertain. This work presents a demonstration of a decision making methodology developed to rationally analyze the risks posed by Imja Lake and the various adaptation projects proposed using available information. In this work the authors use decision analysis, data envelopement analysis (DEA), and sensitivity analysis to assess proposed adaptation measures that would mitigate damage in downstream communities from a GLOF. We use an existing hydrodynamic model of the at-risk area to determine how adaptation projects will affect downstream flooding and estimate fatalities using an empirical method developed for dam failures. The DEA methodology allows us to estimate the value of a statistical life implied by each project given the cost of the project and number of lives saved to determine which project is the most efficient. In contrast the decision analysis methodology requires fatalities to be assigned a cost but allows the inclusion of uncertainty in the decision making process. We compare the output of these two methodologies and determine the sensitivity of the conclusions to changes in uncertain input parameters including project cost, value of a statistical life, and time to a GLOF event.

Mitigating Evidentiary Bias in Planning and Policy-Making Comment on "Reflective Practice: How the World Bank Explored Its Own Biases?"

PubMed

Parkhurst, Justin

2016-07-20

The field of cognitive psychology has increasingly provided scientific insights to explore how humans are subject to unconscious sources of evidentiary bias, leading to errors that can affect judgement and decision-making. Increasingly these insights are being applied outside the realm of individual decision-making to the collective arena of policy-making as well. A recent editorial in this journal has particularly lauded the work of the World Bank for undertaking an open and critical reflection on sources of unconscious bias in its own expert staff that could undermine achievement of its key goals. The World Bank case indeed serves as a remarkable case of a global policy-making agency making its own critical reflections transparent for all to see. Yet the recognition that humans are prone to cognitive errors has been known for centuries, and the scientific exploration of such biases provided by cognitive psychology is now well-established. What still remains to be developed, however, is a widespread body of work that can inform efforts to institutionalise strategies to mitigate the multiple sources and forms of evidentiary bias arising within administrative and policy-making environments. Addressing this gap will require a programme of conceptual and empirical work that supports robust development and evaluation of institutional bias mitigation strategies. The cognitive sciences provides a scientific basis on which to proceed, but a critical priority will now be the application of that science to improve policy-making within those agencies taking responsibility for social welfare and development programmes. © 2017 The Author(s); Published by Kerman University of Medical Sciences. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Leveraging Trillions of Pixels for Flood Mitigation Decisions Support in the Rio Salado Basin, Argentina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sullivan, J.; Routh, D.; Tellman, B.; Doyle, C.; Tomlin, J. N.

2017-12-01

The Rio Salado River Basin in Argentina is an economically important region that generates 25-30 percent of Argentina's grain and meat production. Between 2000-2011, floods in the basin caused nearly US$4.5 billion in losses and affected 5.5 million people. With the goal of developing cost-efficient flood monitoring and prediction capabilities in the Rio Salado Basin to support decision making, Cloud to Street is developing satellite based analytics to cover information gaps and improve monitoring capacity. This talk will showcase the Flood Risk Dashboard developed by Cloud to Street to support monitoring and decision-making at the level of provincial and national water management agencies in the Rio Salado Watershed. The Dashboard is based on analyzing thousands of MODIS, Landsat, and Sentinel scenes in Google Earth Engine to reconstruct the spatial history of flooding in the basin. The tool, iteratively designed with the end-user, shows a history of floodable areas with specific return times, exposed land uses and population, precipitation hyetographs, and spatial and temporal flood trends in the basin. These trends are used to understand both the impact of past flood mitigation investments (i.e. wetland reconstruction) and identify shifting flood risks. Based on this experience, we will also describe best practices on making remote sensing "flood dashboards" for water agencies.

Science-based decision making in a high-risk energy production environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weiser, D. A.

2016-12-01

Energy production practices that may induce earthquakes require decisions about acceptable risk before projects begin. How much ground shaking, structural damage, infrastructure damage, or delay of geothermal power and other operations is tolerable? I review a few mitigation strategies as well as existing protocol in several U.S. states. Timely and accurate scientific information can assist in determining the costs and benefits of altering production parameters. These issues can also be addressed with probability estimates of adverse effects ("costs"), frequency of earthquakes of different sizes, and associated impacts of different magnitude earthquakes. When risk management decisions based on robust science are well-communicated to stakeholders, mitigation efforts benefit. Effective communications elements include a) the risks and benefits of different actions (e.g. using a traffic light protocol); b) the factors to consider when determining acceptable risk; and c) the probability of different magnitude events. I present a case example for The Geysers geothermal field in California, to discuss locally "acceptable" and "unacceptable" earthquakes and share nearby communities' responses to smaller and larger magnitude earthquakes. I use the USGS's "Did You Feel It?" data archive to sample how often felt events occur, and how many of those are above acceptable magnitudes (to both local residents and operators). Using this information, I develop a science-based decision-making framework, in the case of potentially risky earthquakes, for lessening seismic risk and other negative consequences. This includes assessing future earthquake probabilities based on past earthquake records. One of my goals is to help characterize uncertainties in a way that they can be managed; to this end, I present simple and accessible approaches that can be used in the decision making process.

Dynamics of Individual and Collective Agricultural Adaptation to Water Scarcity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burchfield, E. K.; Gilligan, J. M.

2016-12-01

Drought and water scarcity are challenging agricultural systems around the world. We draw on extensive field-work conducted with paddy farmers in rural Sri Lanka to study adaptations to water scarcity, including switching to less water-intensive crops, farming collectively on shared land, and turning to groundwater by digging wells. We explore how variability in climate affects agricultural decision-making at the community and individual levels using three decision-making heuristics, each characterized by an objective function: risk-averse expected utility, regret-adjusted expected utility, and prospect theory loss-aversion. We also assess how the introduction of individualized access to irrigation water with wells affects long-standing community-based drought mitigation practices. Results suggest that the growth of well-irrigation may produce sudden disruptions to community-based adaptations, but that this depends on the mental models farmers use to think about risk and make decisions under uncertainty.

Risk Informed Margins Management as part of Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Curtis Smith

2014-06-01

The ability to better characterize and quantify safety margin is important to improved decision making about Light Water Reactor (LWR) design, operation, and plant life extension. A systematic approach to characterization of safety margins and the subsequent margin management options represents a vital input to the licensee and regulatory analysis and decision making that will be involved. In addition, as research and development in the LWR Sustainability (LWRS) Program and other collaborative efforts yield new data, sensors, and improved scientific understanding of physical processes that govern the aging and degradation of plant SSCs needs and opportunities to better optimize plantmore » safety and performance will become known. To support decision making related to economics, readability, and safety, the Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) Pathway provides methods and tools that enable mitigation options known as risk informed margins management (RIMM) strategies.« less

"Know What to Do If You Encounter a Flash Flood": Mental Models Analysis for Improving Flash Flood Risk Communication and Public Decision Making.

PubMed

Lazrus, Heather; Morss, Rebecca E; Demuth, Julie L; Lazo, Jeffrey K; Bostrom, Ann

2016-02-01

Understanding how people view flash flood risks can help improve risk communication, ultimately improving outcomes. This article analyzes data from 26 mental models interviews about flash floods with members of the public in Boulder, Colorado, to understand their perspectives on flash flood risks and mitigation. The analysis includes a comparison between public and professional perspectives by referencing a companion mental models study of Boulder-area professionals. A mental models approach can help to diagnose what people already know about flash flood risks and responses, as well as any critical gaps in their knowledge that might be addressed through improved risk communication. A few public interviewees mentioned most of the key concepts discussed by professionals as important for flash flood warning decision making. However, most interviewees exhibited some incomplete understandings and misconceptions about aspects of flash flood development and exposure, effects, or mitigation that may lead to ineffective warning decisions when a flash flood threatens. These include important misunderstandings about the rapid evolution of flash floods, the speed of water in flash floods, the locations and times that pose the greatest flash flood risk in Boulder, the value of situational awareness and environmental cues, and the most appropriate responses when a flash flood threatens. The findings point to recommendations for ways to improve risk communication, over the long term and when an event threatens, to help people quickly recognize and understand threats, obtain needed information, and make informed decisions in complex, rapidly evolving extreme weather events such as flash floods. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Environmental impacts of Brazil's Tucuruí Dam: unlearned lessons for hydroelectric development in Amazonia.

PubMed

Fearnside, P M

2001-03-01

Brazil's Tucuruí Dam provides valuable lessons for improving decision-making on major public works in Amazonia and elsewhere. Together with social impacts, which were reviewed in a companion paper, the project's environmental costs are substantial. Monetary costs include costs of construction and maintenance and opportunity costs of natural resources (such as timber) and of the money invested by the Brazilian government. Environmental costs include forest loss, leading to both loss of natural ecosystems and to greenhouse gas emissions. Aquatic ecosystems are heavily affected by the blockage of fish migration and by creation of anoxic environments. Decay of vegetation left in the reservoir creates anoxic water that can corrode turbines, as well as producing methane and providing conditions for methylation of mercury. Defoliants were considered for removing forest in the submergence area but plans were aborted amid a public controversy. Another controversy surrounded impacts of defoliants used to prevent regrowth along the transmission line. Mitigation measures included archaeological and faunal salvage and creation of a "gene bank" on an island in the reservoir. Decision-making in the case of Tucuruí was virtually uninfluenced by environmental studies, which were done concurrently with construction. The dam predates Brazil's 1986 requirement of an Environmental Impact Assessment. Despite limitations, research results provide valuable information for future dams. Extensive public-relations use of the research effort and of mitigation measures such as faunal salvage were evident. Decision-making was closely linked to the influence of construction firms, the military, and foreign financial interests in both the construction project and the use of the resulting electrical power (most of which is used for aluminum smelting). Social and environmental costs received virtually no consideration when decisions were made, an outcome facilitated by a curtain of secrecy surrounding many aspects of the project. Despite improvements in Brazil's system of environmental impact assessment since the Tucuruí reservoir was filled in 1984, many essential features of the decision-making system remain unchanged.

Bayesian Monte Carlo and Maximum Likelihood Approach for Uncertainty Estimation and Risk Management: Application to Lake Oxygen Recovery Model

EPA Science Inventory

Model uncertainty estimation and risk assessment is essential to environmental management and informed decision making on pollution mitigation strategies. In this study, we apply a probabilistic methodology, which combines Bayesian Monte Carlo simulation and Maximum Likelihood e...

Health assessment and risk mitigation of railroad networks exposed to natural hazards using commercial remote sensing and spatial information technologies.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-05-31

The overarching goal of this project was to integrate data from commercial remote sensing and spatial information (CRS&SI) technologies to create a novel data-driven decision making framework that empowers the railroad industry to monitor, assess, an...

Ethical guidelines in pandemic influenza: recommendations of the Ethics Subcommittee of the Advisory Committee of the Director, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

PubMed

Kinlaw, Kathy; Barrett, Drue H; Levine, Robert J

2009-12-01

Because of the importance of including ethical considerations in planning efforts for pandemic influenza, in February 2005 the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention requested that the Ethics Subcommittee of the Advisory Committee to the Director develop guidance that would serve as a foundation for decision making in preparing for and responding to pandemic influenza. Specifically, the ethics subcommittee was asked to make recommendations regarding ethical considerations relevant to decision making about vaccine and antiviral drug distribution prioritization and development of interventions that would limit individual freedom and create social distancing. The ethics subcommittee identified a number of general ethical considerations including identification of clear goals for pandemic planning, responsibility to maximize preparedness, transparency and public engagement, sound science, commitment to the global community, balancing individual liberty and community interests, diversity in ethical decision making, and commitment to justice. These general ethical considerations are applied to the issues of vaccine and antiviral drug distribution and use of community mitigation interventions.

Surgical decision making in a teaching hospital: a linguistic analysis.

PubMed

Bezemer, Jeff; Murtagh, Ged; Cope, Alexandra; Kneebone, Roger

2016-10-01

The aim of the study was to gain insight in the involvement of non-operating surgeons in intraoperative surgical decision making at a teaching hospital. The decision to proceed to clip and cut the cystic duct during laparoscopic cholecystectomy was investigated through direct observation of team work. Eleven laparoscopic cholecystectomies performed by consultant surgeons and specialty trainees at a London teaching hospital were audio and video recorded. Talk among the surgical team was transcribed and subjected to linguistic analysis, in conjunction with observational analysis of the video material, sequentially marking the unfolding operation. Two components of decision making were identified, participation and rationalization. Participation refers to the degree to which agreement was sought within the surgical team prior to clipping the cystic duct. Rationalization refers to the degree to which the evidential grounds for clipping and cutting were verbalized. The decision to clip and cut the cystic duct was jointly made by members of the surgical team, rather than a solitary surgeon in the majority of cases, involving verbal explication of clinical reasoning and verbal agreement. The extent of joint decision making appears to have been mitigated by two factors: trainee's level of training and duration of the case. © 2014 Royal Australasian College of Surgeons.

Future of Earthquake Early Warning: Quantifying Uncertainty and Making Fast Automated Decisions for Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Stephen

Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems have been rapidly developing over the past decade. Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has an EEW system that was operating during the 2011 M9 Tohoku earthquake in Japan, and this increased the awareness of EEW systems around the world. While longer-time earthquake prediction still faces many challenges to be practical, the availability of shorter-time EEW opens up a new door for earthquake loss mitigation. After an earthquake fault begins rupturing, an EEW system utilizes the first few seconds of recorded seismic waveform data to quickly predict the hypocenter location, magnitude, origin time and the expected shaking intensity level around the region. This early warning information is broadcast to different sites before the strong shaking arrives. The warning lead time of such a system is short, typically a few seconds to a minute or so, and the information is uncertain. These factors limit human intervention to activate mitigation actions and this must be addressed for engineering applications of EEW. This study applies a Bayesian probabilistic approach along with machine learning techniques and decision theories from economics to improve different aspects of EEW operation, including extending it to engineering applications. Existing EEW systems are often based on a deterministic approach. Often, they assume that only a single event occurs within a short period of time, which led to many false alarms after the Tohoku earthquake in Japan. This study develops a probability-based EEW algorithm based on an existing deterministic model to extend the EEW system to the case of concurrent events, which are often observed during the aftershock sequence after a large earthquake. To overcome the challenge of uncertain information and short lead time of EEW, this study also develops an earthquake probability-based automated decision-making (ePAD) framework to make robust decision for EEW mitigation applications. A cost-benefit model that can capture the uncertainties in EEW information and the decision process is used. This approach is called the Performance-Based Earthquake Early Warning, which is based on the PEER Performance-Based Earthquake Engineering method. Use of surrogate models is suggested to improve computational efficiency. Also, new models are proposed to add the influence of lead time into the cost-benefit analysis. For example, a value of information model is used to quantify the potential value of delaying the activation of a mitigation action for a possible reduction of the uncertainty of EEW information in the next update. Two practical examples, evacuation alert and elevator control, are studied to illustrate the ePAD framework. Potential advanced EEW applications, such as the case of multiple-action decisions and the synergy of EEW and structural health monitoring systems, are also discussed.

A decision support system for drinking water production integrating health risks assessment.

PubMed

Delpla, Ianis; Monteith, Donald T; Freeman, Chris; Haftka, Joris; Hermens, Joop; Jones, Timothy G; Baurès, Estelle; Jung, Aude-Valérie; Thomas, Olivier

2014-07-18

The issue of drinking water quality compliance in small and medium scale water services is of paramount importance in relation to the 98/83/CE European Drinking Water Directive (DWD). Additionally, concerns are being expressed over the implementation of the DWD with respect to possible impacts on water quality from forecast changes in European climate with global warming and further anticipated reductions in north European acid emissions. Consequently, we have developed a decision support system (DSS) named ARTEM-WQ (AwaReness Tool for the Evaluation and Mitigation of drinking Water Quality issues resulting from environmental changes) to support decision making by small and medium plant operators and other water stakeholders. ARTEM-WQ is based on a sequential risk analysis approach that includes consideration of catchment characteristics, climatic conditions and treatment operations. It provides a holistic evaluation of the water system, while also assessing human health risks of organic contaminants potentially present in treated waters (steroids, pharmaceuticals, pesticides, bisphenol-a, polychlorobiphenyls, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, petrochemical hydrocarbons and disinfection by-products; n = 109). Moreover, the system provides recommendations for improvement while supporting decision making in its widest context. The tool has been tested on various European catchments and shows a promising potential to inform water managers of risks and appropriate mitigative actions. Further improvements should include toxicological knowledge advancement, environmental background pollutant concentrations and the assessment of the impact of distribution systems on water quality variation.

Risk-based decision making for terrorism applications.

PubMed

Dillon, Robin L; Liebe, Robert M; Bestafka, Thomas

2009-03-01

This article describes the anti-terrorism risk-based decision aid (ARDA), a risk-based decision-making approach for prioritizing anti-terrorism measures. The ARDA model was developed as part of a larger effort to assess investments for protecting U.S. Navy assets at risk and determine whether the most effective anti-terrorism alternatives are being used to reduce the risk to the facilities and war-fighting assets. With ARDA and some support from subject matter experts, we examine thousands of scenarios composed of 15 attack modes against 160 facility types on two installations and hundreds of portfolios of 22 mitigation alternatives. ARDA uses multiattribute utility theory to solve some of the commonly identified challenges in security risk analysis. This article describes the process and documents lessons learned from applying the ARDA model for this application.

A Framework for Modeling Emerging Diseases to Inform Management

PubMed Central

Katz, Rachel A.; Richgels, Katherine L.D.; Walsh, Daniel P.; Grant, Evan H.C.

2017-01-01

The rapid emergence and reemergence of zoonotic diseases requires the ability to rapidly evaluate and implement optimal management decisions. Actions to control or mitigate the effects of emerging pathogens are commonly delayed because of uncertainty in the estimates and the predicted outcomes of the control tactics. The development of models that describe the best-known information regarding the disease system at the early stages of disease emergence is an essential step for optimal decision-making. Models can predict the potential effects of the pathogen, provide guidance for assessing the likelihood of success of different proposed management actions, quantify the uncertainty surrounding the choice of the optimal decision, and highlight critical areas for immediate research. We demonstrate how to develop models that can be used as a part of a decision-making framework to determine the likelihood of success of different management actions given current knowledge. PMID:27983501

A Framework for Modeling Emerging Diseases to Inform Management.

PubMed

Russell, Robin E; Katz, Rachel A; Richgels, Katherine L D; Walsh, Daniel P; Grant, Evan H C

2017-01-01

The rapid emergence and reemergence of zoonotic diseases requires the ability to rapidly evaluate and implement optimal management decisions. Actions to control or mitigate the effects of emerging pathogens are commonly delayed because of uncertainty in the estimates and the predicted outcomes of the control tactics. The development of models that describe the best-known information regarding the disease system at the early stages of disease emergence is an essential step for optimal decision-making. Models can predict the potential effects of the pathogen, provide guidance for assessing the likelihood of success of different proposed management actions, quantify the uncertainty surrounding the choice of the optimal decision, and highlight critical areas for immediate research. We demonstrate how to develop models that can be used as a part of a decision-making framework to determine the likelihood of success of different management actions given current knowledge.

A framework for modeling emerging diseases to inform management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Russell, Robin E.; Katz, Rachel A.; Richgels, Katherine L. D.; Walsh, Daniel P.; Grant, Evan H. Campbell

2017-01-01

The rapid emergence and reemergence of zoonotic diseases requires the ability to rapidly evaluate and implement optimal management decisions. Actions to control or mitigate the effects of emerging pathogens are commonly delayed because of uncertainty in the estimates and the predicted outcomes of the control tactics. The development of models that describe the best-known information regarding the disease system at the early stages of disease emergence is an essential step for optimal decision-making. Models can predict the potential effects of the pathogen, provide guidance for assessing the likelihood of success of different proposed management actions, quantify the uncertainty surrounding the choice of the optimal decision, and highlight critical areas for immediate research. We demonstrate how to develop models that can be used as a part of a decision-making framework to determine the likelihood of success of different management actions given current knowledge.

Probabilistic approach to decision making under uncertainty during volcanic crises. Retrospective analysis of the 2011 eruption of El Hierro, in the Canary Islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sobradelo, Rosa; Martí, Joan; Kilburn, Christopher; López, Carmen

2014-05-01

Understanding the potential evolution of a volcanic crisis is crucial to improving the design of effective mitigation strategies. This is especially the case for volcanoes close to densely-populated regions, where inappropriate decisions may trigger widespread loss of life, economic disruption and public distress. An outstanding goal for improving the management of volcanic crises, therefore, is to develop objective, real-time methodologies for evaluating how an emergency will develop and how scientists communicate with decision makers. Here we present a new model BADEMO (Bayesian Decision Model) that applies a general and flexible, probabilistic approach to managing volcanic crises. The model combines the hazard and risk factors that decision makers need for a holistic analysis of a volcanic crisis. These factors include eruption scenarios and their probabilities of occurrence, the vulnerability of populations and their activities, and the costs of false alarms and failed forecasts. The model can be implemented before an emergency, to identify actions for reducing the vulnerability of a district; during an emergency, to identify the optimum mitigating actions and how these may change as new information is obtained; and after an emergency, to assess the effectiveness of a mitigating response and, from the results, to improve strategies before another crisis occurs. As illustrated by a retrospective analysis of the 2011 eruption of El Hierro, in the Canary Islands, BADEMO provides the basis for quantifying the uncertainty associated with each recommended action as an emergency evolves, and serves as a mechanism for improving communications between scientists and decision makers.

Different profiles of decision making and physiology under varying levels of stress in trained military personnel.

PubMed

Gamble, Katherine R; Vettel, Jean M; Patton, Debra J; Eddy, Marianna D; Caroline Davis, F; Garcia, Javier O; Spangler, Derek P; Thayer, Julian F; Brooks, Justin R

2018-03-23

Decision making is one of the most vital processes we use every day, ranging from mundane decisions about what to eat to life-threatening choices such as how to avoid a car collision. Thus, the context in which our decisions are made is critical, and our physiology enables adaptive responses that account for how environmental stress influences our performance. The relationship between stress and decision making can additionally be affected by one's expertise in making decisions in high-threat environments, where experts can develop an adaptive response that mitigates the negative impacts of stress. In the present study, 26 male military personnel made friend/foe discriminations in an environment where we manipulated the level of stress. In the high-stress condition, participants received a shock when they incorrectly shot a friend or missed shooting a foe; in the low-stress condition, participants received a vibration for an incorrect decision. We characterized performance using signal detection theory to investigate whether a participant changed their decision criterion to avoid making an error. Results showed that under high-stress, participants made more false alarms, mistaking friends as foes, and this co-occurred with increased high frequency heart rate variability. Finally, we examined the relationship between decision making and physiology, and found that participants exhibited adaptive behavioral and physiological profiles under different stress levels. We interpret this adaptive profile as a marker of an expert's ingrained training that does not require top down control, suggesting a way that expert training in high-stress environments helps to buffer negative impacts of stress on performance. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Why do some people do "more" to mitigate climate change than others? Exploring heterogeneity in psycho-social associations.

PubMed

Ortega-Egea, José Manuel; García-de-Frutos, Nieves; Antolín-López, Raquel

2014-01-01

The urgency of climate change mitigation calls for a profound shift in personal behavior. This paper investigates psycho-social correlates of extra mitigation behavior in response to climate change, while also testing for potential (unobserved) heterogeneity in European citizens' decision-making. A person's extra mitigation behavior in response to climate change is conceptualized--and differentiated from common mitigation behavior--as some people's broader and greater levels of behavioral engagement (compared to others) across specific self-reported mitigation actions and behavioral domains. Regression analyses highlight the importance of environmental psychographics (i.e., attitudes, motivations, and knowledge about climate change) and socio-demographics (especially country-level variables) in understanding extra mitigation behavior. By looking at the data through the lens of segmentation, significant heterogeneity is uncovered in the associations of attitudes and knowledge about climate change--but not in motivational or socio-demographic links--with extra mitigation behavior in response to climate change, across two groups of environmentally active respondents. The study has implications for promoting more ambitious behavioral responses to climate change, both at the individual level and across countries.

A Framework for the Cross-Sectoral Integration of Multi-Model Impact Projections: Land Use Decisions Under Climate Impacts Uncertainties

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Frieler, K.; Elliott, Joshua; Levermann, A.; Heinke, J.; Arneth, A.; Bierkens, M. F. P.; Ciais, P.; Clark, D. B.; Deryng, D.; Doll, P.;

A framework for the cross-sectoral integration of multi-model impact projections: land use decisions under climate impacts uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frieler, K.; Levermann, A.; Elliott, J.; Heinke, J.; Arneth, A.; Bierkens, M. F. P.; Ciais, P.; Clark, D. B.; Deryng, D.; Döll, P.; Falloon, P.; Fekete, B.; Folberth, C.; Friend, A. D.; Gellhorn, C.; Gosling, S. N.; Haddeland, I.; Khabarov, N.; Lomas, M.; Masaki, Y.; Nishina, K.; Neumann, K.; Oki, T.; Pavlick, R.; Ruane, A. C.; Schmid, E.; Schmitz, C.; Stacke, T.; Stehfest, E.; Tang, Q.; Wisser, D.; Huber, V.; Piontek, F.; Warszawski, L.; Schewe, J.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Schellnhuber, H. J.

2015-07-01

Climate change and its impacts already pose considerable challenges for societies that will further increase with global warming (IPCC, 2014a, b). Uncertainties of the climatic response to greenhouse gas emissions include the potential passing of large-scale tipping points (e.g. Lenton et al., 2008; Levermann et al., 2012; Schellnhuber, 2010) and changes in extreme meteorological events (Field et al., 2012) with complex impacts on societies (Hallegatte et al., 2013). Thus climate change mitigation is considered a necessary societal response for avoiding uncontrollable impacts (Conference of the Parties, 2010). On the other hand, large-scale climate change mitigation itself implies fundamental changes in, for example, the global energy system. The associated challenges come on top of others that derive from equally important ethical imperatives like the fulfilment of increasing food demand that may draw on the same resources. For example, ensuring food security for a growing population may require an expansion of cropland, thereby reducing natural carbon sinks or the area available for bio-energy production. So far, available studies addressing this problem have relied on individual impact models, ignoring uncertainty in crop model and biome model projections. Here, we propose a probabilistic decision framework that allows for an evaluation of agricultural management and mitigation options in a multi-impact-model setting. Based on simulations generated within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP), we outline how cross-sectorally consistent multi-model impact simulations could be used to generate the information required for robust decision making. Using an illustrative future land use pattern, we discuss the trade-off between potential gains in crop production and associated losses in natural carbon sinks in the new multiple crop- and biome-model setting. In addition, crop and water model simulations are combined to explore irrigation increases as one possible measure of agricultural intensification that could limit the expansion of cropland required in response to climate change and growing food demand. This example shows that current impact model uncertainties pose an important challenge to long-term mitigation planning and must not be ignored in long-term strategic decision making.

Spatiotemporal Visualization of Tsunami Waves Using Kml on Google Earth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohammadi, H.; Delavar, M. R.; Sharifi, M. A.; Pirooz, M. D.

2017-09-01

Disaster risk is a function of hazard and vulnerability. Risk is defined as the expected losses, including lives, personal injuries, property damages, and economic disruptions, due to a particular hazard for a given area and time period. Risk assessment is one of the key elements of a natural disaster management strategy as it allows for better disaster mitigation and preparation. It provides input for informed decision making, and increases risk awareness among decision makers and other stakeholders. Virtual globes such as Google Earth can be used as a visualization tool. Proper spatiotemporal graphical representations of the concerned risk significantly reduces the amount of effort to visualize the impact of the risk and improves the efficiency of the decision-making process to mitigate the impact of the risk. The spatiotemporal visualization of tsunami waves for disaster management process is an attractive topic in geosciences to assist investigation of areas at tsunami risk. In this paper, a method for coupling virtual globes with tsunami wave arrival time models is presented. In this process we have shown 2D+Time of tsunami waves for propagation and inundation of tsunami waves, both coastal line deformation, and the flooded areas. In addition, the worst case scenario of tsunami on Chabahar port derived from tsunami modelling is also presented using KML on google earth.

The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ross, Stephanie L.; Jones, Lucile M.

2013-01-01

The Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) tsunami scenario depicts a hypothetical but plausible tsunami created by an earthquake offshore from the Alaska Peninsula and its impacts on the California coast. The tsunami scenario is a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the California Geological Survey (CGS), the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services (Cal OES), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), other Federal, State, County, and local agencies, private companies, and academic and other institutions. This document presents evidence for past tsunamis, the scientific basis for the source, likely inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental and ecological impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management and evacuation challenges, and policy implications for California associated with this hypothetical tsunami. We also discuss ongoing mitigation efforts by the State of California and new communication products. The intended users are those who need to make mitigation decisions before future tsunamis, and those who will need to make rapid decisions during tsunami events. The results of the tsunami scenario will help managers understand the context and consequences of their decisions and how they may improve preparedness and response. An evaluation component will assess the effectiveness of the scenario process for target stakeholders in a separate report to improve similar efforts in the future.

Leadership of risk decision making in a complex, technology organization: The deliberative decision making model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flaming, Susan C.

2007-12-01

The continuing saga of satellite technology development is as much a story of successful risk management as of innovative engineering. How do program leaders on complex, technology projects manage high stakes risks that threaten business success and satellite performance? This grounded theory study of risk decision making portrays decision leadership practices at one communication satellite company. Integrated product team (IPT) leaders of multi-million dollar programs were interviewed and observed to develop an extensive description of the leadership skills required to navigate organizational influences and drive challenging risk decisions to closure. Based on the study's findings the researcher proposes a new decision making model, Deliberative Decision Making, to describe the program leaders' cognitive and organizational leadership practices. This Deliberative Model extends the insights of prominent decision making models including the rational (or classical) and the naturalistic and qualifies claims made by bounded rationality theory. The Deliberative Model describes how leaders proactively engage resources to play a variety of decision leadership roles. The Model incorporates six distinct types of leadership decision activities, undertaken in varying sequence based on the challenges posed by specific risks. Novel features of the Deliberative Decision Model include: an inventory of leadership methods for managing task challenges, potential stakeholder bias and debates; four types of leadership meta-decisions that guide decision processes, and aligned organizational culture. Both supporting and constraining organizational influences were observed as leaders managed major risks, requiring active leadership on the most difficult decisions. Although the company's engineering culture emphasized the importance of data-based decisions, the uncertainties intrinsic to satellite risks required expert engineering judgment to be exercised throughout. An investigation into the co-variation of decision methods with uncertainty suggests that perceived risk severity may serve as a robust indicator for choices about decision practices. The Deliberative Decision processes incorporate multiple organizational and cultural controls as cross-checks to mitigate potential parochial bias of individuals, stakeholder groups, or leaders. Overall the Deliberative Decision framework describes how expert leadership practices, supportive organizational systems along with aligned cultural values and behavioral norms help leaders drive high stakes risk decisions to closure in this complex, advanced-technology setting.

Development of a decision support system for tsunami evacuation: application to the Jiyang District of Sanya city in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hou, Jingming; Yuan, Ye; Wang, Peitao; Ren, Zhiyuan; Li, Xiaojuan

2017-03-01

Major tsunami disasters often cause great damage in the first few hours following an earthquake. The possible severity of such events requires preparations to prevent tsunami disasters or mitigate them. This paper is an attempt to develop a decision support system for rapid tsunami evacuation for local decision makers. Based on the numerical results database of tsunami disasters, this system can quickly obtain the tsunami inundation and travel time. Because numerical models are calculated in advance, this system can reduce decision-making time. Population distribution, as a vulnerability factor, was analyzed to identify areas of high risk for tsunami disasters. Combined with spatial data, this system can comprehensively analyze the dynamic and static evacuation process and identify problems that negatively impact evacuation, thus supporting the decision-making for tsunami evacuation in high-risk areas. When an earthquake and tsunami occur, this system can rapidly obtain the tsunami inundation and travel time and provide information to assist with tsunami evacuation operations.

Analysis of market penetration of renewable energy alternatives under uncertain and carbon constrained world

EPA Science Inventory

Future energy prices and supply, availability and costs can have a significant impact on how fast and cost effectively we could abate carbon emissions. Two-staged decision making methods embedded in U.S. EPA's MARKAL modeling system will be utilized to find the most robust mitig...

33 CFR 332.8 - Mitigation banks and in-lieu fee programs.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... and in-lieu fee project sites must be planned and designed to be self-sustaining over time, but some... based approach, to the extent practicable, while still meeting the decision-making time frames specified... district engineer and the IRT should use a watershed approach to the extent practicable in reviewing...

33 CFR 332.8 - Mitigation banks and in-lieu fee programs.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... and in-lieu fee project sites must be planned and designed to be self-sustaining over time, but some... based approach, to the extent practicable, while still meeting the decision-making time frames specified... district engineer and the IRT should use a watershed approach to the extent practicable in reviewing...

33 CFR 332.8 - Mitigation banks and in-lieu fee programs.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... and in-lieu fee project sites must be planned and designed to be self-sustaining over time, but some... based approach, to the extent practicable, while still meeting the decision-making time frames specified... district engineer and the IRT should use a watershed approach to the extent practicable in reviewing...

33 CFR 332.8 - Mitigation banks and in-lieu fee programs.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... and in-lieu fee project sites must be planned and designed to be self-sustaining over time, but some... based approach, to the extent practicable, while still meeting the decision-making time frames specified... district engineer and the IRT should use a watershed approach to the extent practicable in reviewing...

33 CFR 332.8 - Mitigation banks and in-lieu fee programs.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... and in-lieu fee project sites must be planned and designed to be self-sustaining over time, but some... based approach, to the extent practicable, while still meeting the decision-making time frames specified... district engineer and the IRT should use a watershed approach to the extent practicable in reviewing...

Assessing Roles of People, Technology and Structure in Emergency Management Systems: A Public Sector Perspective

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kim, Minkyun; Sharman, Raj; Cook-Cottone, Catherine P.; Rao, H. Raghav; Upadhyaya, Shambhu J.

2012-01-01

Emergency management systems are a critical factor in successful mitigation of natural and man-made disasters, facilitating responder decision making in complex situations. Based on socio-technical systems, have which four components (people, technology, structure and task), this study develops a research framework of factors affecting effective…

Mitigating Errors of Representation: A Practical Case Study of the University Experience Survey

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Whiteley, Sonia

2014-01-01

The Total Survey Error (TSE) paradigm provides a framework that supports the effective planning of research, guides decision making about data collection and contextualises the interpretation and dissemination of findings. TSE also allows researchers to systematically evaluate and improve the design and execution of ongoing survey programs and…

Operating room managerial decision-making on the day of surgery with and without computer recommendations and status displays.

PubMed

Dexter, Franklin; Willemsen-Dunlap, Ann; Lee, John D

2007-08-01

There are three basic types of decision aids to facilitate operating room (OR) management decision-making on the day of surgery. Decision makers can rely on passive status displays (e.g., big screens or whiteboards), active status displays (e.g., text pager notification), and/or command displays (e.g., text recommendations about what to do). Anesthesiologists, OR nurses, and housekeepers were given nine simulated scenarios (vignettes) involving multiple ORs to study their decision-making. Participants were randomized to one of four groups, all with an updated paper OR schedule: with/without command display and with/without passive status display. Participants making decisions without command displays performed no better than random chance in terms of increasing the predictability of work hours, reducing over-utilized OR time, and increasing OR efficiency. Status displays had no effect on these end-points, whereas command displays improved the quality of decisions. In the scenarios for which the command displays provided recommendations that adversely affected safety, participants appropriately ignored advice. Anesthesia providers and nursing staff made decisions that increased clinical work per unit time in each OR, even when doing so resulted in an increase in over-utilized OR time, higher staffing costs, unpredictable work hours, and/or mandatory overtime. Organizational culture and socialization during clinical training may be a cause. Command displays showed promise in mitigating this tendency. Additional investigations are in our companion paper.

Making better decisions in uncertain times (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

St John, C.

2013-12-01

Scientific information about climate change and other human impacts on the environment are increasingly available and sought after (often in the form of probabilistic forecasts or technical information related to engineering solutions). However, it is increasingly apparent that there are barriers to the use of this information by decision makers - either from its lack of application altogether, its usability for people without scientific backgrounds, or its ability to inform sound decisions and widespread behavior change. While the argument has been made that an information deficit is to blame, we argue that there is also a motivation deficit contributing to a lack of understanding of information about climate change impacts and solutions. Utilizing insight from over thirty years of research in social and cognitive psychology, in addition to other social sciences, the Center for Research on Environmental Decisions (CRED) seeks to understand how people make environmental decisions under conditions of uncertainty, and how these decisions can be improved. This presentation will focus specifically on recent research that has come forth since the 2009 publication of CRED's popular guide 'The Psychology of Climate Change Communication: A Guide for Scientists, Journalists, Educators, Political Aides, and the Interested Public.' Utilizing case studies from real world examples, this talk will explore how decision making can be improved through a better understanding of how people perceive and process uncertainty and risk. It will explore techniques such as choice architecture and 'nudging' behavior change, how social goals and group participation affect decision making, and how framing of environmental information influences mitigative behavior.

The doctor-patient relationship as a toolkit for uncertain clinical decisions.

PubMed

Diamond-Brown, Lauren

2016-06-01

Medical uncertainty is a well-recognized problem in healthcare, yet how doctors make decisions in the face of uncertainty remains to be understood. This article draws on interdisciplinary literature on uncertainty and physician decision-making to examine a specific physician response to uncertainty: using the doctor-patient relationship as a toolkit. Additionally, I ask what happens to this process when the doctor-patient relationship becomes fragmented. I answer these questions by examining obstetrician-gynecologists' narratives regarding how they make decisions when faced with uncertainty in childbirth. Between 2013 and 2014, I performed 21 semi-structured interviews with obstetricians in the United States. Obstetricians were selected to maximize variation in relevant physician, hospital, and practice characteristics. I began with grounded theory and moved to analytical coding of themes in relation to relevant literature. My analysis renders it evident that some physicians use the doctor-patient relationship as a toolkit for dealing with uncertainty. I analyze how this process varies for physicians in different models of care by comparing doctors' experiences in models with continuous versus fragmented doctor-patient relationships. My key findings are that obstetricians in both models appealed to the ideal of patient-centered decision-making to cope with uncertain decisions, but in practice physicians in fragmented care faced a number of challenges to using the doctor-patient relationship as a toolkit for decision-making. These challenges led to additional uncertainties and in some cases to poor outcomes for doctors and/or patients; they also raised concerns about the reproduction of inequality. Thus organization of care delivery mitigates the efficacy of doctors' use of the doctor-patient relationship toolkit for uncertain decisions. These findings have implications for theorizing about decision-making under conditions of medical uncertainty, for understanding how the doctor-patient relationship and model of care affect physician decision-making, and for forming policy on the optimal structure of medical work. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Multi-criteria decision-making for flood risk management: a survey of the current state of the art

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Madruga de Brito, Mariana; Evers, Mariele

2016-04-01

This paper provides a review of multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) applications to flood risk management, seeking to highlight trends and identify research gaps. A total of 128 peer-reviewed papers published from 1995 to June 2015 were systematically analysed. Results showed that the number of flood MCDM publications has exponentially grown during this period, with over 82 % of all papers published since 2009. A wide range of applications were identified, with most papers focusing on ranking alternatives for flood mitigation, followed by risk, hazard, and vulnerability assessment. The analytical hierarchy process (AHP) was the most popular method, followed by Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution (TOPSIS), and Simple Additive Weighting (SAW). Although there is greater interest in MCDM, uncertainty analysis remains an issue and was seldom applied in flood-related studies. In addition, participation of multiple stakeholders has been generally fragmented, focusing on particular stages of the decision-making process, especially on the definition of criteria weights. Therefore, addressing the uncertainties around stakeholders' judgments and endorsing an active participation in all steps of the decision-making process should be explored in future applications. This could help to increase the quality of decisions and the implementation of chosen measures.

New solid-state chemistry technologies to bring better drugs to market: knowledge-based decision making.

PubMed

Park, Aeri; Chyall, Leonard J; Dunlap, Jeanette; Schertz, Christine; Jonaitis, David; Stahly, Barbara C; Bates, Simon; Shipplett, Rex; Childs, Scott

2007-01-01

Modern drug development demands constant deployment of more effective technologies to mitigate the high cost of bringing new drugs to market. In addition to cost savings, new technologies can improve all aspects of pharmaceutical development. New technologies developed at SSCI, Inc. include solid form development of an active pharmaceutical ingredients. (APIs) are PatternMatch software and capillary-based crystallisation techniques that not only allow for fast and effective solid form screening, but also extract maximum property information from the routine screening data that is generally available. These new technologies offer knowledge-based decision making during solid form development of APIs and result in more developable API solid forms.

Understanding Perceptions of Climate Change, Priorities, and Decision-Making among Municipalities in Lima, Peru to Better Inform Adaptation and Mitigation Planning.

PubMed

Siña, Mariella; Wood, Rachel C; Saldarriaga, Enrique; Lawler, Joshua; Zunt, Joseph; Garcia, Patricia; Cárcamo, César

2016-01-01

Climate change poses multiple risks to the population of Lima, the largest city and capital of Peru, located on the Pacific coast in a desert ecosystem. These risks include increased water scarcity, increased heat, and the introduction and emergence of vector-borne and other climate sensitive diseases. To respond to these threats, it is necessary for the government, at every level, to adopt more mitigation and adaptation strategies. Here, focus groups were conducted with representatives from five Lima municipalities to determine priorities, perception of climate change, and decision-making processes for implementing projects within each municipality. These factors can affect the ability and desire of a community to implement climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. The results show that climate change and other environmental factors are of relatively low priority, whereas public safety and water and sanitation services are of highest concern. Perhaps most importantly, climate change is not well understood among the municipalities. Participants had trouble distinguishing climate change from other environmental issues and did not fully understand its causes and effects. Greater understanding of what climate change is and why it is important is necessary for it to become a priority for the municipalities. Different aspects of increased climate change awareness seem to be connected to having experienced extreme weather events, whether related or not to climate change, and to higher socioeconomic status.

Death Penalty Decisions: Instruction Comprehension, Attitudes, and Decision Mediators.

PubMed

Patry, Marc W; Penrod, Steven D

2013-01-01

A primary goal of this research was to empirically evaluate a set of assumptions, advanced in the Supreme Court's ruling in Buchanan v. Angelone (1998), about jury comprehension of death penalty instructions. Further, this research examined the use of evidence in capital punishment decision making by exploring underlying mediating factors upon which death penalty decisions may be based. Manipulated variables included the type of instructions and several variations of evidence. Study 1 was a paper and pencil study of 245 undergraduate mock jurors. The experimental design was an incomplete 4×2×2×2×2 factorial model resulting in 56 possible conditions. Manipulations included four different types of instructions, presence of a list of case-specific mitigators to accompany the instructions, and three variations in the case facts: age of the defendant, bad prior record, and defendant history of emotional abuse. Study 2 was a fully-crossed 2×2×2×2×2 experiment with four deliberating mock juries per cell. Manipulations included jury instructions (original or revised), presence of a list of case-specific mitigators, defendant history of emotional abuse, bad prior record, and heinousness of the crime. The sample of 735 jury-eligible participants included 130 individuals who identified themselves as students. Participants watched one of 32 stimulus videotapes based on a replication of a capital sentencing hearing. The present findings support previous research showing low comprehension of capital penalty instructions. Further, we found that higher instruction comprehension was associated with higher likelihood of issuing life sentence decisions. The importance of instruction comprehension is emphasized in a social cognitive model of jury decision making at the sentencing phase of capital cases.

Death Penalty Decisions: Instruction Comprehension, Attitudes, and Decision Mediators

PubMed Central

Patry, Marc W.; Penrod, Steven D.

2013-01-01

A primary goal of this research was to empirically evaluate a set of assumptions, advanced in the Supreme Court’s ruling in Buchanan v. Angelone (1998), about jury comprehension of death penalty instructions. Further, this research examined the use of evidence in capital punishment decision making by exploring underlying mediating factors upon which death penalty decisions may be based. Manipulated variables included the type of instructions and several variations of evidence. Study 1 was a paper and pencil study of 245 undergraduate mock jurors. The experimental design was an incomplete 4×2×2×2×2 factorial model resulting in 56 possible conditions. Manipulations included four different types of instructions, presence of a list of case-specific mitigators to accompany the instructions, and three variations in the case facts: age of the defendant, bad prior record, and defendant history of emotional abuse. Study 2 was a fully-crossed 2×2×2×2×2 experiment with four deliberating mock juries per cell. Manipulations included jury instructions (original or revised), presence of a list of case-specific mitigators, defendant history of emotional abuse, bad prior record, and heinousness of the crime. The sample of 735 jury-eligible participants included 130 individuals who identified themselves as students. Participants watched one of 32 stimulus videotapes based on a replication of a capital sentencing hearing. The present findings support previous research showing low comprehension of capital penalty instructions. Further, we found that higher instruction comprehension was associated with higher likelihood of issuing life sentence decisions. The importance of instruction comprehension is emphasized in a social cognitive model of jury decision making at the sentencing phase of capital cases. PMID:24072981

Legal and psychological considerations for obtaining informed consent for reverse total shoulder arthroplasty.

PubMed

Blackwood, Craig; Dixon, Jen; Reilly, Peter; Emery, Roger J

2017-01-01

This paper seeks to outline recent legal developments and requirements pertinent to obtaining informed consent. We argue that this is of particular relevance to patients considering a reverse total shoulder arthroplasty, due to the high complication rate associated with this procedure. By examining the cognitive processes involved in decision-making, and other clinician-related factors such as delivery of information, gender bias and conflict of interest, we explore some of the barriers that can undermine the processes of shared decision-making and obtaining genuine informed consent. We argue that these issues highlight the importance for surgeons in understanding the cognitive processes and other influential factors involved in patients' comprehension and decision-making. We recommend, based on strong evidence, that decision aids could prove useful in overcoming such challenges and could provide one way of mitigating the ethical, professional and legal consequences of failing to obtain proper informed consent. They are not widely used in orthopaedics at present, although it would be in the interests of both the surgeon and patient for such measures to be explored.

Legal and psychological considerations for obtaining informed consent for reverse total shoulder arthroplasty

PubMed Central

Blackwood, Craig; Reilly, Peter; Emery, Roger J

2016-01-01

This paper seeks to outline recent legal developments and requirements pertinent to obtaining informed consent. We argue that this is of particular relevance to patients considering a reverse total shoulder arthroplasty, due to the high complication rate associated with this procedure. By examining the cognitive processes involved in decision-making, and other clinician-related factors such as delivery of information, gender bias and conflict of interest, we explore some of the barriers that can undermine the processes of shared decision-making and obtaining genuine informed consent. We argue that these issues highlight the importance for surgeons in understanding the cognitive processes and other influential factors involved in patients’ comprehension and decision-making. We recommend, based on strong evidence, that decision aids could prove useful in overcoming such challenges and could provide one way of mitigating the ethical, professional and legal consequences of failing to obtain proper informed consent. They are not widely used in orthopaedics at present, although it would be in the interests of both the surgeon and patient for such measures to be explored. PMID:28572846

Decision-Making for Systemic Water Risks: Insights From a Participatory Risk Assessment Process in Vietnam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wyrwoll, Paul R.; Grafton, R. Quentin; Daniell, Katherine A.; Chu, Hoang Long; Ringler, Claudia; Lien, Le Thi Ha; Khoi, Dang Kim; Do, Thang Nam; Tuan, Nguyen Do Anh

2018-03-01

Systemic threats to food-energy-environment-water systems require national policy responses. Yet complete control of these complex systems is impossible and attempts to mitigate systemic risks can generate unexpected feedback effects. Perverse outcomes from national policy can emerge from the diverse responses of decision-makers across different levels and scales of resource governance. Participatory risk assessment processes can help planners to understand subnational dynamics and ensure that policies do not undermine the resilience of social-ecological systems and infrastructure networks. Researchers can play an important role in participatory processes as both technical specialists and brokers of stakeholder knowledge on the feedbacks generated by systemic risks and policy decisions. Here, we evaluate the use of causal modeling and participatory risk assessment to develop national policy on systemic water risks. We present an application of the Risks and Options Assessment for Decision-Making (ROAD) process to a district of Vietnam where national agricultural water reforms are being piloted. The methods and results of this project provide general insights about how to support resilient decision-making, including the transfer of knowledge across administrative levels, identification of feedback effects, and the effective implementation of risk assessment processes.

A Decision Support System for Drinking Water Production Integrating Health Risks Assessment

PubMed Central

Delpla, Ianis; Monteith, Donald T.; Freeman, Chris; Haftka, Joris; Hermens, Joop; Jones, Timothy G.; Baurès, Estelle; Jung, Aude-Valérie; Thomas, Olivier

2014-01-01

The issue of drinking water quality compliance in small and medium scale water services is of paramount importance in relation to the 98/83/CE European Drinking Water Directive (DWD). Additionally, concerns are being expressed over the implementation of the DWD with respect to possible impacts on water quality from forecast changes in European climate with global warming and further anticipated reductions in north European acid emissions. Consequently, we have developed a decision support system (DSS) named ARTEM-WQ (AwaReness Tool for the Evaluation and Mitigation of drinking Water Quality issues resulting from environmental changes) to support decision making by small and medium plant operators and other water stakeholders. ARTEM-WQ is based on a sequential risk analysis approach that includes consideration of catchment characteristics, climatic conditions and treatment operations. It provides a holistic evaluation of the water system, while also assessing human health risks of organic contaminants potentially present in treated waters (steroids, pharmaceuticals, pesticides, bisphenol-a, polychlorobiphenyls, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, petrochemical hydrocarbons and disinfection by-products; n = 109). Moreover, the system provides recommendations for improvement while supporting decision making in its widest context. The tool has been tested on various European catchments and shows a promising potential to inform water managers of risks and appropriate mitigative actions. Further improvements should include toxicological knowledge advancement, environmental background pollutant concentrations and the assessment of the impact of distribution systems on water quality variation. PMID:25046634

A Robust Decision-Making Technique for Water Management under Decadal Scale Climate Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Callihan, L.; Zagona, E. A.; Rajagopalan, B.

2013-12-01

Robust decision making, a flexible and dynamic approach to managing water resources in light of deep uncertainties associated with climate variability at inter-annual to decadal time scales, is an analytical framework that detects when a system is in or approaching a vulnerable state. It provides decision makers the opportunity to implement strategies that both address the vulnerabilities and perform well over a wide range of plausible future scenarios. A strategy that performs acceptably over a wide range of possible future states is not likely to be optimal with respect to the actual future state. The degree of success--the ability to avoid vulnerable states and operate efficiently--thus depends on the skill in projecting future states and the ability to select the most efficient strategies to address vulnerabilities. This research develops a robust decision making framework that incorporates new methods of decadal scale projections with selection of efficient strategies. Previous approaches to water resources planning under inter-annual climate variability combining skillful seasonal flow forecasts with climatology for subsequent years are not skillful for medium term (i.e. decadal scale) projections as decision makers are not able to plan adequately to avoid vulnerabilities. We address this need by integrating skillful decadal scale streamflow projections into the robust decision making framework and making the probability distribution of this projection available to the decision making logic. The range of possible future hydrologic scenarios can be defined using a variety of nonparametric methods. Once defined, an ensemble projection of decadal flow scenarios are generated from a wavelet-based spectral K-nearest-neighbor resampling approach using historical and paleo-reconstructed data. This method has been shown to generate skillful medium term projections with a rich variety of natural variability. The current state of the system in combination with the probability distribution of the projected flow ensembles enables the selection of appropriate decision options. This process is repeated for each year of the planning horizon--resulting in system outcomes that can be evaluated on their performance and resiliency. The research utilizes the RiverSMART suite of software modeling and analysis tools developed under the Bureau of Reclamation's WaterSMART initiative and built around the RiverWare modeling environment. A case study is developed for the Gunnison and Upper Colorado River Basins. The ability to mitigate vulnerability using the framework is gauged by system performance indicators that measure the ability of the system to meet various water demands (i.e. agriculture, environmental flows, hydropower etc.). Options and strategies for addressing vulnerabilities include measures such as conservation, reallocation and adjustments to operational policy. In addition to being able to mitigate vulnerabilities, options and strategies are evaluated based on benefits, costs and reliability. Flow ensembles are also simulated to incorporate mean and variance from climate change projections for the planning horizon and the above robust decision-making framework is applied to evaluate its performance under changing climate.

Decision making for mitigating wildlife diseases: From theory to practice for an emerging fungal pathogen of amphibians

USGS Publications Warehouse

Canessa, Stefano; Bozzutto, Claudio; Grant, Evan H. Campbell; Cruickshank, Sam S.; Fisher, Matthew C.; Koella, Jacob C.; Lotters, Stefan; Martel, An; Pasmans, Frank; Scheele, Ben C.; Spitzen-van der Sluijs, Annemarieke; Steinfartz, Sebastian; Schmidt, Benedikt R.

2018-01-01

Conservation science can be most effective in its decision‐support role when seeking answers to clearly formulated questions of direct management relevance. Emerging wildlife diseases, a driver of global biodiversity loss, illustrate the challenges of performing this role: in spite of considerable research, successful disease mitigation is uncommon. Decision analysis is increasingly advocated to guide mitigation planning, but its application remains rare.Using an integral projection model, we explored potential mitigation actions for avoiding population declines and the ongoing spatial spread of the fungus Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans (Bsal). This fungus has recently caused severe amphibian declines in north‐western Europe and currently threatens Palearctic salamander diversity.Available evidence suggests that a Bsal outbreak in a fire salamander (Salamandra salamandra) population will lead to its rapid extirpation. Treatments such as antifungals or probiotics would need to effectively interrupt transmission (reduce probability of infection by nearly 90%) in order to reduce the risk of host extirpation and successfully eradicate the pathogen.Improving the survival of infected hosts is most likely to be detrimental as it increases the potential for pathogen transmission and spread. Active removal of a large proportion of the host population has some potential to locally eradicate Bsal and interrupt its spread, depending on the presence of Bsal reservoirs and on the host's spatial dynamics, which should therefore represent research priorities.Synthesis and applications. Mitigation of Batrachochytrium salamandrivoransepidemics in susceptible host species is highly challenging, requiring effective interruption of transmission and radical removal of host individuals. More generally, our study illustrates the advantages of framing conservation science directly in the management decision context, rather than adapting to it a posteriori.

Range Systems Simulation for the NASA Shuttle: Emphasis on Disaster and Prevention Management During Lift-Off

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rabelo, Lisa; Sepulveda, Jose; Moraga, Reinaldo; Compton, Jeppie; Turner, Robert

2005-01-01

This article describes a decision-making system composed of a number of safety and environmental models for the launch phase of a NASA Space Shuttle mission. The components of this distributed simulation environment represent the different systems that must collaborate to establish the Expectation of Casualties (E(sub c)) caused by a failed Space Shuttle launch and subsequent explosion (accidental or instructed) of the spacecraft shortly after liftoff. This decision-making tool employs Space Shuttle reliability models, trajectory models, a blast model, weather dissemination systems, population models, amount and type of toxicants, gas dispersion models, human response functions to toxicants, and a geographical information system. Since one of the important features of this proposed simulation environment is to measure blast, toxic, and debris effects, the clear benefits is that it can help safety managers not only estimate the population at risk, but also to help plan evacuations, make sheltering decisions, establish the resources required to provide aid and comfort, and mitigate damages in case of a disaster.

Designing and assessing weather-based financial hedging contracts to mitigate water conflicts at the river basin scale. A case study in the Italian Alps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bellagamba, Laura; Denaro, Simona; Kern, Jordan; Giuliani, Matteo; Castelletti, Andrea; Characklis, Gregory

2016-04-01

Growing water demands and more frequent and severe droughts are increasingly challenging water management in many regions worldwide, exacerbating water disputes and reducing the space for negotiated agreements at the catchment scale. In the lack of a centralized controller, the design and deployment of coordination and/or regulatory mechanisms is a way to improve system-wide efficiency while preserving the distributed nature of the decision making setting, and facilitating cooperation among institutionally independent decision-makers. Recent years have witnessed an increased interest in index-based insurance contracts as mechanisms for sharing hydro-meteorological risk in complex and heterogeneous decision making context (e.g. multiple stakeholders and institutionally independent decision makers). In this study, we explore the potential for index-based insurance contracts to mitigate the conflict in a water system characterized by (political) power asymmetry between hydropower companies upstream and farmers downstream. The Lake Como basin in the Italian Alps is considered as a case study. We generated alternative regulatory mechanisms in the form of minimum release constraints to the hydropower facilities, and designed an insurance contract for hedging against hydropower relative revenue losses. The fundamental step in designing this type of insurance contracts is the identification of a suitable index, which triggers the payouts as well as the payout function, defined by strike level and slope (e.g., euros/index unit). A portfolio of index-based contracts was designed for the case study and evaluated in terms of revenue floor, basis risk and revenue fluctuation around the mean, both with and without insurance. Over the long term, the insurance proved to be capable to keep the minimum revenue above a specified level while providing a greater certainty on the revenue trend. This result shows the possibility to augment farmer's supply with little loss for hydropower companies, thus helping in mitigating the conflict between the stakeholders.

Influence of behavioral biases on the assessment of multi-hazard risks and the implementation of multi-hazard risks mitigation measures: case study of multi-hazard cyclone shelters in Tamil Nadu, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Komendantova, Nadejda; Patt, Anthony

2013-04-01

In December 2004, a multiple hazards event devastated the Tamil Nadu province of India. The Sumatra -Andaman earthquake with a magnitude of Mw=9.1-9.3 caused the Indian Ocean tsunami with wave heights up to 30 m, and flooding that reached up to two kilometers inland in some locations. More than 7,790 persons were killed in the province of Tamil Nadu, with 206 in its capital Chennai. The time lag between the earthquake and the tsunami's arrival in India was over an hour, therefore, if a suitable early warning system existed, a proper means of communicating the warning and shelters existing for people would exist, than while this would not have prevented the destruction of infrastructure, several thousands of human lives would have been saved. India has over forty years of experience in the construction of cyclone shelters. With additional efforts and investment, these shelters could be adapted to other types of hazards such as tsunamis and flooding, as well as the construction of new multi-hazard cyclone shelters (MPCS). It would therefore be possible to mitigate one hazard such as cyclones by the construction of a network of shelters while at the same time adapting these shelters to also deal with, for example, tsunamis, with some additional investment. In this historical case, the failure to consider multiple hazards caused significant human losses. The current paper investigates the patterns of the national decision-making process with regards to multiple hazards mitigation measures and how the presence of behavioral and cognitive biases influenced the perceptions of the probabilities of multiple hazards and the choices made for their mitigation by the national decision-makers. Our methodology was based on the analysis of existing reports from national and international organizations as well as available scientific literature on behavioral economics and natural hazards. The results identified several biases in the national decision-making process when the construction of cyclone shelters was being undertaken. The availability heuristics caused a perception of low probability of tsunami following an earthquake, as the last large similar event happened over a hundred years ago. Another led to a situation when decisions were taken on the basis of experience and not statistical evidence, namely, experience showed that the so-called "Ring of Fire" generates underground earthquakes and tsunamis in the Pacific Ocean. This knowledge made decision-makers to neglect the numerical estimations about probability of underground earthquake in the Indian Ocean even though seismologists were warning about probability of a large underground earthquake in the Indian Ocean. The bounded rationality bias led to misperception of signals from the early warning center in the Pacific Ocean. The resulting limited concern resulted in risk mitigation measures that considered cyclone risks, but much less about tsunami. Under loss aversion considerations, the decision-makers perceived the losses connected with the necessary additional investment as being greater than benefits from mitigating a less probable hazard.

Taking Risk Assessment and Management to the Next Level: Program-Level Risk Analysis to Enable Solid Decision-Making on Priorities and Funding

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nelson, J. G.; Morton, R. L.; Castillo, C.

2011-02-01

A multi-level (facility and programmatic) risk assessment was conducted for the facilities in the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) Readiness in Technical Base and Facilities (RTBF) Program and results were included in a new Risk Management Plan (RMP), which was incorporated into the fiscal year (FY) 2010 Integrated Plans. Risks, risk events, probability, consequence(s), and mitigation strategies were identified and captured, for most scope areas (i.e., risk categories) during the facilitated risk workshops. Risk mitigations (i.e., efforts in addition to existing controls) were identified during the facilitated risk workshops when the risk event was identified. Risk mitigation strategies fell intomore » two broad categories: threats or opportunities. Improvement projects were identified and linked to specific risks they mitigate, making the connection of risk reduction through investments for the annual Site Execution Plan. Due to the amount of that was collected, analysis to be performed, and reports to be generated, a Risk Assessment/ Management Tool (RAMtool) database was developed to analyze the risks in real-time, at multiple levels, which reinforced the site-level risk management process and procedures. The RAMtool database was developed and designed to assist in the capturing and analysis of the key elements of risk: probability, consequence, and impact. The RAMtool calculates the facility-level and programmatic-level risk factors to enable a side-by-side comparison to see where the facility manager and program manager should focus their risk reduction efforts and funding. This enables them to make solid decisions on priorities and funding to maximize the risk reduction. A more active risk management process was developed where risks and opportunities are actively managed, monitored, and controlled by each facility more aggressively and frequently. risk owners have the responsibility and accountability to manage their assigned risk in real-time, using the RAMtool database.« less

Developing a decision support system for R&D project portfolio selection with interdependencies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ashrafi, Maryam; Davoudpour, Hamid; Abbassi, Mohammad

2012-11-01

Although investment in research and technology is a promising tool for technology centered organizations through obtaining their objectives, resource constraints make organizations select between their pool of research and technology projects through means of R&D project portfolio selection techniques mitigating corresponding risks and enhancing the overall value of project portfolio.

Application of wildfire simulation models for risk analysis

Treesearch

Alan A. Ager; Mark A. Finney

2009-01-01

Wildfire simulation models are being widely used by fire and fuels specialists in the U.S. to support tactical and strategic decisions related to the mitigation of wildfire risk. Much of this application has resulted from the development of a minimum travel time (MTT) fire spread algorithm (M. Finney) that makes it computationally feasible to simulate thousands of...

"It's a Big Mystery, Isn't It?" Mitigating Placement Challenges with a Model of Student Teacher Placement Decision-Making

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Parot-Juraska, Maribeth

2009-01-01

This phenomenological study explores how external forces, internal motivations and environmental conditions may influence school personnel when considering placement requests. Seidman's three-stage interview process was implemented to conduct semi-structured interviews with five principals and five teachers in a large, urban school district. Four…

Mitigation of stress: new treatment alternatives.

PubMed

Subhani, Ahmad Rauf; Kamel, Nidal; Mohamad Saad, Mohamad Naufal; Nandagopal, Nanda; Kang, Kenneth; Malik, Aamir Saeed

2018-02-01

Complaints of stress are common in modern life. Psychological stress is a major cause of lifestyle-related issues, contributing to poor quality of life. Chronic stress impedes brain function, causing impairment of many executive functions, including working memory, decision making and attentional control. The current study sought to describe newly developed stress mitigation techniques, and their influence on autonomic and endocrine functions. The literature search revealed that the most frequently studied technique for stress mitigation was biofeedback (BFB). However, evidence suggests that neurofeedback (NFB) and noninvasive brain stimulation (NIBS) could potentially provide appropriate approaches. We found that recent studies of BFB methods have typically used measures of heart rate variability, respiration and skin conductance. In contrast, studies of NFB methods have typically utilized neurocomputation techniques employing electroencephalography, functional magnetic resonance imaging and near infrared spectroscopy. NIBS studies have typically utilized transcranial direct current stimulation methods. Mitigation of stress is a challenging but important research target for improving quality of life.

Why Do Some People Do “More” to Mitigate Climate Change than Others? Exploring Heterogeneity in Psycho-Social Associations

PubMed Central

Ortega-Egea, José Manuel; García-de-Frutos, Nieves; Antolín-López, Raquel

2014-01-01

The urgency of climate change mitigation calls for a profound shift in personal behavior. This paper investigates psycho-social correlates of extra mitigation behavior in response to climate change, while also testing for potential (unobserved) heterogeneity in European citizens' decision-making. A person's extra mitigation behavior in response to climate change is conceptualized—and differentiated from common mitigation behavior—as some people's broader and greater levels of behavioral engagement (compared to others) across specific self-reported mitigation actions and behavioral domains. Regression analyses highlight the importance of environmental psychographics (i.e., attitudes, motivations, and knowledge about climate change) and socio-demographics (especially country-level variables) in understanding extra mitigation behavior. By looking at the data through the lens of segmentation, significant heterogeneity is uncovered in the associations of attitudes and knowledge about climate change—but not in motivational or socio-demographic links—with extra mitigation behavior in response to climate change, across two groups of environmentally active respondents. The study has implications for promoting more ambitious behavioral responses to climate change, both at the individual level and across countries. PMID:25191841

Geospatial decision support systems for societal decision making

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bernknopf, R.L.

2005-01-01

While science provides reliable information to describe and understand the earth and its natural processes, it can contribute more. There are many important societal issues in which scientific information can play a critical role. Science can add greatly to policy and management decisions to minimize loss of life and property from natural and man-made disasters, to manage water, biological, energy, and mineral resources, and in general, to enhance and protect our quality of life. However, the link between science and decision-making is often complicated and imperfect. Technical language and methods surround scientific research and the dissemination of its results. Scientific investigations often are conducted under different conditions, with different spatial boundaries, and in different timeframes than those needed to support specific policy and societal decisions. Uncertainty is not uniformly reported in scientific investigations. If society does not know that data exist, what the data mean, where to use the data, or how to include uncertainty when a decision has to be made, then science gets left out -or misused- in a decision making process. This paper is about using Geospatial Decision Support Systems (GDSS) for quantitative policy analysis. Integrated natural -social science methods and tools in a Geographic Information System that respond to decision-making needs can be used to close the gap between science and society. The GDSS has been developed so that nonscientists can pose "what if" scenarios to evaluate hypothetical outcomes of policy and management choices. In this approach decision makers can evaluate the financial and geographic distribution of potential policy options and their societal implications. Actions, based on scientific information, can be taken to mitigate hazards, protect our air and water quality, preserve the planet's biodiversity, promote balanced land use planning, and judiciously exploit natural resources. Applications using the GDSS have demonstrated the benefits of utilizing science for policy decisions. Investment in science reduces decision-making uncertainty and reducing that uncertainty has economic value.

Predicting environmental mitigation requirements for hydropower projects through the integration of biophysical and socio-political geographies

DOE PAGES

Bevelhimer, Mark S.; DeRolph, Christopher R.; Schramm, Michael P.

2016-06-06

Uncertainty about environmental mitigation needs at existing and proposed hydropower projects makes it difficult for stakeholders to minimize environmental impacts. Hydropower developers and operators desire tools to better anticipate mitigation requirements, while natural resource managers and regulators need tools to evaluate different mitigation scenarios and order effective mitigation. Here we sought to examine the feasibility of using a suite of multidisciplinary explanatory variables within a spatially explicit modeling framework to fit predictive models for future environmental mitigation requirements at hydropower projects across the conterminous U.S. Using a database comprised of mitigation requirements from more than 300 hydropower project licenses, wemore » were able to successfully fit models for nearly 50 types of environmental mitigation and to apply the predictive models to a set of more than 500 non-powered dams identified as having hydropower potential. The results demonstrate that mitigation requirements have been a result of a range of factors, from biological and hydrological to political and cultural. Furthermore, project developers can use these models to inform cost projections and design considerations, while regulators can use the models to more quickly identify likely environmental issues and potential solutions, hopefully resulting in more timely and more effective decisions on environmental mitigation.« less

Predicting environmental mitigation requirements for hydropower projects through the integration of biophysical and socio-political geographies.

PubMed

DeRolph, Christopher R; Schramm, Michael P; Bevelhimer, Mark S

2016-10-01

Uncertainty about environmental mitigation needs at existing and proposed hydropower projects makes it difficult for stakeholders to minimize environmental impacts. Hydropower developers and operators desire tools to better anticipate mitigation requirements, while natural resource managers and regulators need tools to evaluate different mitigation scenarios and order effective mitigation. Here we sought to examine the feasibility of using a suite of multi-faceted explanatory variables within a spatially explicit modeling framework to fit predictive models for future environmental mitigation requirements at hydropower projects across the conterminous U.S. Using a database comprised of mitigation requirements from more than 300 hydropower project licenses, we were able to successfully fit models for nearly 50 types of environmental mitigation and to apply the predictive models to a set of more than 500 non-powered dams identified as having hydropower potential. The results demonstrate that mitigation requirements are functions of a range of factors, from biophysical to socio-political. Project developers can use these models to inform cost projections and design considerations, while regulators can use the models to more quickly identify likely environmental issues and potential solutions, hopefully resulting in more timely and more effective decisions on environmental mitigation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Predicting environmental mitigation requirements for hydropower projects through the integration of biophysical and socio-political geographies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bevelhimer, Mark S.; DeRolph, Christopher R.; Schramm, Michael P.

Uncertainty about environmental mitigation needs at existing and proposed hydropower projects makes it difficult for stakeholders to minimize environmental impacts. Hydropower developers and operators desire tools to better anticipate mitigation requirements, while natural resource managers and regulators need tools to evaluate different mitigation scenarios and order effective mitigation. Here we sought to examine the feasibility of using a suite of multidisciplinary explanatory variables within a spatially explicit modeling framework to fit predictive models for future environmental mitigation requirements at hydropower projects across the conterminous U.S. Using a database comprised of mitigation requirements from more than 300 hydropower project licenses, wemore » were able to successfully fit models for nearly 50 types of environmental mitigation and to apply the predictive models to a set of more than 500 non-powered dams identified as having hydropower potential. The results demonstrate that mitigation requirements have been a result of a range of factors, from biological and hydrological to political and cultural. Furthermore, project developers can use these models to inform cost projections and design considerations, while regulators can use the models to more quickly identify likely environmental issues and potential solutions, hopefully resulting in more timely and more effective decisions on environmental mitigation.« less

The influence of hazard models on GIS-based regional risk assessments and mitigation policies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bernknopf, R.L.; Rabinovici, S.J.M.; Wood, N.J.; Dinitz, L.B.

2006-01-01

Geographic information systems (GIS) are important tools for understanding and communicating the spatial distribution of risks associated with natural hazards in regional economies. We present a GIS-based decision support system (DSS) for assessing community vulnerability to natural hazards and evaluating potential mitigation policy outcomes. The Land Use Portfolio Modeler (LUPM) integrates earth science and socioeconomic information to predict the economic impacts of loss-reduction strategies. However, the potential use of such systems in decision making may be limited when multiple but conflicting interpretations of the hazard are available. To explore this problem, we conduct a policy comparison using the LUPM to test the sensitivity of three available assessments of earthquake-induced lateral-spread ground failure susceptibility in a coastal California community. We find that the uncertainty regarding the interpretation of the science inputs can influence the development and implementation of natural hazard management policies. Copyright ?? 2006 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.

Spatial interpolation methods and geostatistics for mapping groundwater contamination in a coastal area.

PubMed

Elumalai, Vetrimurugan; Brindha, K; Sithole, Bongani; Lakshmanan, Elango

2017-04-01

Mapping groundwater contaminants and identifying the sources are the initial steps in pollution control and mitigation. Due to the availability of different mapping methods and the large number of emerging pollutants, these methods need to be used together in decision making. The present study aims to map the contaminated areas in Richards Bay, South Africa and compare the results of ordinary kriging (OK) and inverse distance weighted (IDW) interpolation techniques. Statistical methods were also used for identifying contamination sources. Na-Cl groundwater type was dominant followed by Ca-Mg-Cl. Data analysis indicate that silicate weathering, ion exchange and fresh water-seawater mixing are the major geochemical processes controlling the presence of major ions in groundwater. Factor analysis also helped to confirm the results. Overlay analysis by OK and IDW gave different results. Areas where groundwater was unsuitable as a drinking source were 419 and 116 km 2 for OK and IDW, respectively. Such diverse results make decision making difficult, if only one method was to be used. Three highly contaminated zones within the study area were more accurately identified by OK. If large areas are identified as being contaminated such as by IDW in this study, the mitigation measures will be expensive. If these areas were underestimated, then even though management measures are taken, it will not be effective for a longer time. Use of multiple techniques like this study will help to avoid taking harsh decisions. Overall, the groundwater quality in this area was poor, and it is essential to identify alternate drinking water source or treat the groundwater before ingestion.

From Trust in Automation to Decision Neuroscience: Applying Cognitive Neuroscience Methods to Understand and Improve Interaction Decisions Involved in Human Automation Interaction.

PubMed

Drnec, Kim; Marathe, Amar R; Lukos, Jamie R; Metcalfe, Jason S

2016-01-01

Human automation interaction (HAI) systems have thus far failed to live up to expectations mainly because human users do not always interact with the automation appropriately. Trust in automation (TiA) has been considered a central influence on the way a human user interacts with an automation; if TiA is too high there will be overuse, if TiA is too low there will be disuse. However, even though extensive research into TiA has identified specific HAI behaviors, or trust outcomes, a unique mapping between trust states and trust outcomes has yet to be clearly identified. Interaction behaviors have been intensely studied in the domain of HAI and TiA and this has led to a reframing of the issues of problems with HAI in terms of reliance and compliance. We find the behaviorally defined terms reliance and compliance to be useful in their functionality for application in real-world situations. However, we note that once an inappropriate interaction behavior has occurred it is too late to mitigate it. We therefore take a step back and look at the interaction decision that precedes the behavior. We note that the decision neuroscience community has revealed that decisions are fairly stereotyped processes accompanied by measurable psychophysiological correlates. Two literatures were therefore reviewed. TiA literature was extensively reviewed in order to understand the relationship between TiA and trust outcomes, as well as to identify gaps in current knowledge. We note that an interaction decision precedes an interaction behavior and believe that we can leverage knowledge of the psychophysiological correlates of decisions to improve joint system performance. As we believe that understanding the interaction decision will be critical to the eventual mitigation of inappropriate interaction behavior, we reviewed the decision making literature and provide a synopsis of the state of the art understanding of the decision process from a decision neuroscience perspective. We forward hypotheses based on this understanding that could shape a research path toward the ability to mitigate interaction behavior in the real world.

From Trust in Automation to Decision Neuroscience: Applying Cognitive Neuroscience Methods to Understand and Improve Interaction Decisions Involved in Human Automation Interaction

PubMed Central

Drnec, Kim; Marathe, Amar R.; Lukos, Jamie R.; Metcalfe, Jason S.

2016-01-01

Human automation interaction (HAI) systems have thus far failed to live up to expectations mainly because human users do not always interact with the automation appropriately. Trust in automation (TiA) has been considered a central influence on the way a human user interacts with an automation; if TiA is too high there will be overuse, if TiA is too low there will be disuse. However, even though extensive research into TiA has identified specific HAI behaviors, or trust outcomes, a unique mapping between trust states and trust outcomes has yet to be clearly identified. Interaction behaviors have been intensely studied in the domain of HAI and TiA and this has led to a reframing of the issues of problems with HAI in terms of reliance and compliance. We find the behaviorally defined terms reliance and compliance to be useful in their functionality for application in real-world situations. However, we note that once an inappropriate interaction behavior has occurred it is too late to mitigate it. We therefore take a step back and look at the interaction decision that precedes the behavior. We note that the decision neuroscience community has revealed that decisions are fairly stereotyped processes accompanied by measurable psychophysiological correlates. Two literatures were therefore reviewed. TiA literature was extensively reviewed in order to understand the relationship between TiA and trust outcomes, as well as to identify gaps in current knowledge. We note that an interaction decision precedes an interaction behavior and believe that we can leverage knowledge of the psychophysiological correlates of decisions to improve joint system performance. As we believe that understanding the interaction decision will be critical to the eventual mitigation of inappropriate interaction behavior, we reviewed the decision making literature and provide a synopsis of the state of the art understanding of the decision process from a decision neuroscience perspective. We forward hypotheses based on this understanding that could shape a research path toward the ability to mitigate interaction behavior in the real world. PMID:27445741

Integrated assessments of green infrastructure for flood mitigation to support robust decision-making for sponge city construction in an urbanized watershed.

PubMed

Mei, Chao; Liu, Jiahong; Wang, Hao; Yang, Zhiyong; Ding, Xiangyi; Shao, Weiwei

2018-10-15

Green Infrastructure (GI) has become increasingly important in urban stormwater management because of the effects of climate change and urbanization. To mitigate severe urban water-related problems, China is implementing GI at the national scale under its Sponge City Program (SCP). The SCP is currently in a pilot period, however, little attention has been paid to the cost-effectiveness of GI implementation in China. In this study, an evaluation framework based on the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) and life cycle cost analysis (LCCA) was applied to undertake integrated assessments of the development of GI for flood mitigation, to support robust decision making regarding sponge city construction in urbanized watersheds. A baseline scenario and 15 GI scenarios under six design rainfall events with recurrence intervals ranging from 2-100 years were simulated and assessed. Model simulation results confirmed the effectiveness of GI for flood mitigation. Nevertheless, even under the most beneficial scenario, the results showed the hydrological performance of GI was incapable of eliminating flooding. Analysis indicated the bioretention cell (BC) plus vegetated swale (VS) scenario was the most cost-effective GI option for unit investment under all rainfall events. However, regarding the maximum potential of the implementation areas of all GI scenarios, the porous pavement plus BC + VS strategy was considered most reasonable for the study area. Although the optimal combinations are influenced by uncertainties in both the model and the GI parameters, the main trends and key insights derived remain unaffected; therefore, the conclusions are relevant regarding sponge city construction within the study area. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Decision Support for Emergency Operations Centers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Harvey, Craig; Lawhead, Joel; Watts, Zack

2005-01-01

The Flood Disaster Mitigation Decision Support System (DSS) is a computerized information system that allows regional emergency-operations government officials to make decisions regarding the dispatch of resources in response to flooding. The DSS implements a real-time model of inundation utilizing recently acquired lidar elevation data as well as real-time data from flood gauges, and other instruments within and upstream of an area that is or could become flooded. The DSS information is updated as new data become available. The model generates realtime maps of flooded areas and predicts flood crests at specified locations. The inundation maps are overlaid with information on population densities, property values, hazardous materials, evacuation routes, official contact information, and other information needed for emergency response. The program maintains a database and a Web portal through which real-time data from instrumentation are gathered into the database. Also included in the database is a geographic information system, from which the program obtains the overlay data for areas of interest as needed. The portal makes some portions of the database accessible to the public. Access to other portions of the database is restricted to government officials according to various levels of authorization. The Flood Disaster Mitigation DSS has been integrated into a larger DSS named REACT (Real-time Emergency Action Coordination Tool), which also provides emergency operations managers with data for any type of impact area such as floods, fires, bomb

SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario--Executive Summary and Introduction: Chapter A in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ross, Stephanie L.; Jones, Lucile M.; Miller, Kevin H.; Porter, Keith A.; Wein, Anne; Wilson, Rick I.; Bahng, Bohyun; Barberopoulou, Aggeliki; Borrero, Jose C.; Brosnan, Deborah M.; Bwarie, John T.; Geist, Eric L.; Johnson, Laurie A.; Kirby, Stephen H.; Knight, William R.; Long, Kate; Lynett, Patrick; Mortensen, Carl E.; Nicolsky, Dmitry J.; Perry, Suzanne C.; Plumlee, Geoffrey S.; Real, Charles R.; Ryan, Kenneth; Suleimani, Elena; Thio, Hong Kie; Titov, Vasily V.; Whitmore, Paul M.; Wood, Nathan J.

2013-01-01

The Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) tsunami scenario depicts a hypothetical but plausible tsunami created by an earthquake offshore from the Alaska Peninsula and its impacts on the California coast. The tsunami scenario is a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the California Geological Survey, the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services (Cal OES), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), other Federal, State, County, and local agencies, private companies, and academic and other institutions. This document presents evidence for past tsunamis, the scientific basis for the source, likely inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental and ecological impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management and evacuation challenges, and policy implications for California associated with this hypothetical tsunami. We also discuss ongoing mitigation efforts by the State of California and new communication products. The intended users are those who need to make mitigation decisions before future tsunamis, and those who will need to make rapid decisions during tsunami events. The results of the tsunami scenario will help managers understand the context and consequences of their decisions and how they may improve preparedness and response. An evaluation component will assess the effectiveness of the scenario process for target stakeholders in a separate report to improve similar efforts in the future.

EnviroAtlas: Providing Nationwide Geospatial Ecosystem Goods and Services Indicators and Indices to Inform Decision-Making, Research, and Education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neale, A. C.

2016-12-01

EnviroAtlas is a multi-organization effort led by the US Environmental Protection Agency to develop, host and display a large suite of nation-wide geospatial indicators and indices of ecosystem services. This open access tool allows users to view, analyze, and download a wealth of geospatial data and other resources related to ecosystem goods and services. More than 160 national indicators of ecosystem service supply, demand, and drivers of change provide a framework to inform decisions and policies at multiple spatial scales, educate a range of audiences, and supply data for research. A higher resolution component is also available, providing over 100 data layers for finer-scale analyses for selected communities across the US. The ecosystem goods and services data are organized into seven general ecosystem benefit categories: clean and plentiful water; natural hazard mitigation; food, fuel, and materials; climate stabilization; clean air; biodiversity conservation; and recreation, culture, and aesthetics. Each indicator is described in terms of how it is important to human health or well-being. EnviroAtlas includes data describing existing ecosystem markets for water quality and quantity, biodiversity, wetland mitigation, and carbon credits. This presentation will briefly describe the EnviroAtlas data and tools and how they are being developed and used in ongoing research studies and in decision-making contexts.

A Conceptual Framework for Decision-making Support in Uncertainty- and Risk-based Diagnosis of Rare Clinical Cases by Specialist Physicians.

PubMed

Santos, Adriano A; Moura, J Antão B; de Araújo, Joseana Macêdo Fechine Régis

2015-01-01

Mitigating uncertainty and risks faced by specialist physicians in analysis of rare clinical cases is something desired by anyone who needs health services. The number of clinical cases never seen by these experts, with little documentation, may introduce errors in decision-making. Such errors negatively affect well-being of patients, increase procedure costs, rework, health insurance premiums, and impair the reputation of specialists and medical systems involved. In this context, IT and Clinical Decision Support Systems (CDSS) play a fundamental role, supporting decision-making process, making it more efficient and effective, reducing a number of avoidable medical errors and enhancing quality of treatment given to patients. An investigation has been initiated to look into characteristics and solution requirements of this problem, model it, propose a general solution in terms of a conceptual risk-based, automated framework to support rare-case medical diagnostics and validate it by means of case studies. A preliminary validation study of the proposed framework has been carried out by interviews conducted with experts who are practicing professionals, academics, and researchers in health care. This paper summarizes the investigation and its positive results. These results motivate continuation of research towards development of the conceptual framework and of a software tool that implements the proposed model.

Test and Evaluation Metrics of Crew Decision-Making And Aircraft Attitude and Energy State Awareness

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bailey, Randall E.; Ellis, Kyle K. E.; Stephens, Chad L.

2013-01-01

NASA has established a technical challenge, under the Aviation Safety Program, Vehicle Systems Safety Technologies project, to improve crew decision-making and response in complex situations. The specific objective of this challenge is to develop data and technologies which may increase a pilot's (crew's) ability to avoid, detect, and recover from adverse events that could otherwise result in accidents/incidents. Within this technical challenge, a cooperative industry-government research program has been established to develop innovative flight deck-based counter-measures that can improve the crew's ability to avoid, detect, mitigate, and recover from unsafe loss-of-aircraft state awareness - specifically, the loss of attitude awareness (i.e., Spatial Disorientation, SD) or the loss-of-energy state awareness (LESA). A critical component of this research is to develop specific and quantifiable metrics which identify decision-making and the decision-making influences during simulation and flight testing. This paper reviews existing metrics and methods for SD testing and criteria for establishing visual dominance. The development of Crew State Monitoring technologies - eye tracking and other psychophysiological - are also discussed as well as emerging new metrics for identifying channelized attention and excessive pilot workload, both of which have been shown to contribute to SD/LESA accidents or incidents.

Risk-based analysis and decision making in multi-disciplinary environments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Feather, Martin S.; Cornford, Steven L.; Moran, Kelly

2003-01-01

A risk-based decision-making process conceived of and developed at JPL and NASA, has been used to help plan and guide novel technology applications for use on spacecraft. These applications exemplify key challenges inherent in multi-disciplinary design of novel technologies deployed in mission-critical settings. 1) Cross-disciplinary concerns are numerous (e.g., spacecraft involve navigation, propulsion, telecommunications). These concems are cross-coupled and interact in multiple ways (e.g., electromagnetic interference, heat transfer). 2) Time and budget pressures constrain development, operational resources constrain the resulting system (e.g., mass, volume, power). 3) Spacecraft are critical systems that must operate correctly the first time in only partially understood environments, with no chance for repair. 4) Past experience provides only a partial guide: New mission concepts are enhanced and enabled by new technologies, for which past experience is lacking. The decision-making process rests on quantitative assessments of the relationships between three classes of information - objectives (the things the system is to accomplish and constraints on its operation and development), risks (whose occurrence detracts from objectives), and mitigations (options for reducing the likelihood and or severity of risks). The process successfully guides experts to pool their knowledge, using custom-built software to support information gathering and decision-making.

Fuel treatment effectiveness in reducing fire intensity and spread rate - An experimental overview

Treesearch

Eric Mueller; Nicholas Skowronski; Albert Simeoni; Kenneth Clark; Robert Kremens; William Mell; Michael Gallagher; Jan Thomas; Alexander Filkov; Mohamad El Houssami; John Hom; Bret Butler

2014-01-01

Fuel treatments represent a significant component of the wildfire mitigation strategy in the United States. However, the lack of research aimed at quantifying the explicit effectiveness of fuel treatments in reducing wildfire intensity and spread rate limits our ability to make educated decisions about the type and placement of these treatments. As part of a larger...

Estimated values of carbon sequestration resulting from forest management scenarios

Treesearch

R. Bluffstone; J. Coulston; R.G. Haight; J. Kline; S. Polasky; D.N. Wear; K. Zook

2017-01-01

Recent USDA policies, such as the Building Blocks for Climate Smart Agriculture and Forestry, aim to sequester and mitigate greenhouse gases in the forestry and agriculture sectors in the United States. To make informed decisions, the USDA will need to evaluate the carbon benefits of various potential policies. In this paper, we use detailed forest inventory data to...

Less Guilty by Reason of Adolescence: Developmental Immaturity, Diminished Responsibility, and the Juvenile Death Penalty

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Steinberg, Laurence; Scott, Elizabeth S.

2003-01-01

The authors use a developmental perspective to examine questions about the criminal culpability of juveniles and the juvenile death penalty. Under principles of criminal law, culpability is mitigated when the actor's decision-making capacity is diminished, when the criminal act was coerced, or when the act was out of character. The authors argue…

Probabilistic inference under time pressure leads to a cortical-to-subcortical shift in decision evidence integration.

PubMed

Oh-Descher, Hanna; Beck, Jeffrey M; Ferrari, Silvia; Sommer, Marc A; Egner, Tobias

2017-11-15

Real-life decision-making often involves combining multiple probabilistic sources of information under finite time and cognitive resources. To mitigate these pressures, people "satisfice", foregoing a full evaluation of all available evidence to focus on a subset of cues that allow for fast and "good-enough" decisions. Although this form of decision-making likely mediates many of our everyday choices, very little is known about the way in which the neural encoding of cue information changes when we satisfice under time pressure. Here, we combined human functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) with a probabilistic classification task to characterize neural substrates of multi-cue decision-making under low (1500 ms) and high (500 ms) time pressure. Using variational Bayesian inference, we analyzed participants' choices to track and quantify cue usage under each experimental condition, which was then applied to model the fMRI data. Under low time pressure, participants performed near-optimally, appropriately integrating all available cues to guide choices. Both cortical (prefrontal and parietal cortex) and subcortical (hippocampal and striatal) regions encoded individual cue weights, and activity linearly tracked trial-by-trial variations in the amount of evidence and decision uncertainty. Under increased time pressure, participants adaptively shifted to using a satisficing strategy by discounting the least informative cue in their decision process. This strategic change in decision-making was associated with an increased involvement of the dopaminergic midbrain, striatum, thalamus, and cerebellum in representing and integrating cue values. We conclude that satisficing the probabilistic inference process under time pressure leads to a cortical-to-subcortical shift in the neural drivers of decisions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Understanding Perceptions of Climate Change, Priorities, and Decision-Making among Municipalities in Lima, Peru to Better Inform Adaptation and Mitigation Planning

PubMed Central

Saldarriaga, Enrique; Lawler, Joshua; Zunt, Joseph; Garcia, Patricia; Cárcamo, César

2016-01-01

Climate change poses multiple risks to the population of Lima, the largest city and capital of Peru, located on the Pacific coast in a desert ecosystem. These risks include increased water scarcity, increased heat, and the introduction and emergence of vector-borne and other climate sensitive diseases. To respond to these threats, it is necessary for the government, at every level, to adopt more mitigation and adaptation strategies. Here, focus groups were conducted with representatives from five Lima municipalities to determine priorities, perception of climate change, and decision-making processes for implementing projects within each municipality. These factors can affect the ability and desire of a community to implement climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. The results show that climate change and other environmental factors are of relatively low priority, whereas public safety and water and sanitation services are of highest concern. Perhaps most importantly, climate change is not well understood among the municipalities. Participants had trouble distinguishing climate change from other environmental issues and did not fully understand its causes and effects. Greater understanding of what climate change is and why it is important is necessary for it to become a priority for the municipalities. Different aspects of increased climate change awareness seem to be connected to having experienced extreme weather events, whether related or not to climate change, and to higher socioeconomic status. PMID:26808087

Radiation monitoring systems as a tool for assessment of accidental releases at the Chernobyl and Fukushima NPPs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shershakov, Vjacheslav; Bulgakov, Vladimir

2013-04-01

The experience gained during mitigation of the consequences of the accidents at the Chernobyl and Fukushima NPPs has shown that what makes different the decision-making in case of nuclear accidents is that the greatest benefit from decision-making can be achieved in the early phase of an accident. Support to such process can be provided only by a real-time decision-making support system. In case of a nuclear accident the analysis of the situation and decision-making is not feasible without an operational radiation monitoring system, international data exchange and automated data processing, and the use of computerized decision-making support systems. With this in mind, in the framework of different international programs on the Chernobyl-related issues numerous projects were undertaken to study and develop a set of methods, algorithms and programs providing effective support to emergency response decision-making, starting from accident occurrence to decision-making regarding countermeasures to mitigate effects of radioactive contamination of the environment. The presentation focuses results of the analysis of radiation monitoring data and, on this basis, refining or, for many short-lived radionuclides, reconstructing the source term, modeling dispersion of radioactivity in the environment and assessing its impacts. The obtained results allowed adding and refining the existing estimates and in some cases reconstructing doses for the public on the territories contaminated as a result of the Chernobyl accident. The activities were implemented in two stages. In the first stage, several scenarios for dispersion of Chernobyl-related radioactivity were developed. For each scenario cesium-137 dispersion was estimated and these estimates were compared with measurement data. In the second stage, the scenario which showed the best agreement of calculations and measurements was used for modeling the dispersion of iodine-131and other short-lived radionuclides. The described approach was used for assessing the consequences at the Fukushima NPP. These results are also provided in the presentation. References 1. Kelly G.N., Ehrhardt J., Shershakov V.M.. Decision Support for Off-Site Emergency Preparedness in Europe. Radiation Protection Dosimetry, Vol. 64 Nos. 1-2, 1996, pp. 129-142. 2. Ehrhardt J., Shershakov V.M. Real-time on-line decision support systems (RODOS) for off-site emergency management following a nuclear accident. EUR 16533, 1996 3. Kelly G.N., Shershakov V.M. (Editors). Environmental contamination, radiation doses and health consequences after the ?hernobyl accident. Radiation Protection Dosimetry. Special Commemorative Issue.Vol. 64, 1996 4. Shershakov V.M. Computer information technology for support of radiation monitoring problems. OECD Proceedings of an International Workshop «Nuclear Emergency Data Management», Zurich, Switzerland, 1998, pp. 377-388 5. Pitkevich V.A., Duba V.V., Ivanov V.K., Tsyb A.F., Shershakov V.M., Golubenkov A.V., Borodin R.V., V.A., Kosykh V.S. Reconstruction of External Dose to the Inhabitants Living in the Contaminated Territory of Russia by the Results of the Accident at the Chernobyl NPP. Health Phys., Vol. 30, No. 1, pp. 54-68, 1995. 6. Shershakov V., Fesenko S., Kryshev I., Semioshkina T. Decision-Aiding Tools for Remediation Strategies. In: Radioactivity in the Environment, Volume 14, Remediation of Contaminated Environments, 2009, pp 41- 120, Elsevier Ltd.

A Framework for Multi-Stakeholder Decision-Making and ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This contribution describes the implementation of the conditional-value-at-risk (CVaR) metric to create a general multi-stakeholder decision-making framework. It is observed that stakeholder dissatisfactions (distance to their individual ideal solutions) can be interpreted as random variables. We thus shape the dissatisfaction distribution and find an optimal compromise solution by solving a CVaR minimization problem parameterized in the probability level. This enables us to generalize multi-stakeholder settings previously proposed in the literature that minimizes average and worst-case dissatisfactions. We use the concept of the CVaR norm to give a geometric interpretation to this problem and use the properties of this norm to prove that the CVaR minimization problem yields Pareto optimal solutions for any choice of the probability level. We discuss a broad range of potential applications of the framework. We demonstrate the framework in a bio-waste processing facility location case study, where we seek compromise solutions (facility locations) that balance stakeholder priorities on transportation, safety, water quality, and capital costs. This conference presentation abstract explains a new decision-making framework that computes compromise solution alternatives (reach consensus) by mitigating dissatisfactions among stakeholders as needed for SHC Decision Science and Support Tools project.

Equity trade-offs in conservation decision making.

PubMed

Law, Elizabeth A; Bennett, Nathan J; Ives, Christopher D; Friedman, Rachel; Davis, Katrina J; Archibald, Carla; Wilson, Kerrie A

2018-04-01

Conservation decisions increasingly involve multiple environmental and social objectives, which result in complex decision contexts with high potential for trade-offs. Improving social equity is one such objective that is often considered an enabler of successful outcomes and a virtuous ideal in itself. Despite its idealized importance in conservation policy, social equity is often highly simplified or ill-defined and is applied uncritically. What constitutes equitable outcomes and processes is highly normative and subject to ethical deliberation. Different ethical frameworks may lead to different conceptions of equity through alternative perspectives of what is good or right. This can lead to different and potentially conflicting equity objectives in practice. We promote a more transparent, nuanced, and pluralistic conceptualization of equity in conservation decision making that particularly recognizes where multidimensional equity objectives may conflict. To help identify and mitigate ethical conflicts and avoid cases of good intentions producing bad outcomes, we encourage a more analytical incorporation of equity into conservation decision making particularly during mechanistic integration of equity objectives. We recommend that in conservation planning motivations and objectives for equity be made explicit within the problem context, methods used to incorporate equity objectives be applied with respect to stated objectives, and, should objectives dictate, evaluation of equity outcomes and adaptation of strategies be employed during policy implementation. © 2017 Society for Conservation Biology.

Wildfire Decision Making Under Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, M.

2013-12-01

Decisions relating to wildfire management are subject to multiple sources of uncertainty, and are made by a broad range of individuals, across a multitude of environmental and socioeconomic contexts. In this presentation I will review progress towards identification and characterization of uncertainties and how this information can support wildfire decision-making. First, I will review a typology of uncertainties common to wildfire management, highlighting some of the more salient sources of uncertainty and how they present challenges to assessing wildfire risk. This discussion will cover the expanding role of burn probability modeling, approaches for characterizing fire effects, and the role of multi-criteria decision analysis, and will provide illustrative examples of integrated wildfire risk assessment across a variety of planning scales. Second, I will describe a related uncertainty typology that focuses on the human dimensions of wildfire management, specifically addressing how social, psychological, and institutional factors may impair cost-effective risk mitigation. This discussion will encompass decision processes before, during, and after fire events, with a specific focus on active management of complex wildfire incidents. An improved ability to characterize uncertainties faced in wildfire management could lead to improved delivery of decision support, targeted communication strategies, and ultimately to improved wildfire management outcomes.

Factors related to voluntary parental decision-making in pediatric oncology.

PubMed

Miller, Victoria A; Nelson, Robert M

2012-05-01

The aim of the current study was to examine demographic and contextual correlates of voluntariness in parents making research or treatment decisions for their children with cancer. Participants included 184 parents of children with cancer who made a decision about enrolling the child in a research or treatment protocol within the previous 10 days. Parents completed questionnaires that assessed voluntariness, external influence by others, concern that the child's care would be negatively affected if the parent did not agree, time pressure, information adequacy, and demographics. Lower perceived voluntariness was associated with lower education, male gender, minority status, and not having previous experience with a similar decision. Parents who reported lower voluntariness also perceived more external influence and time pressure, had more concern about the child's care being negatively affected if they declined, and perceived that they had either too much or not enough information about the decision. In a multivariate regression, education, minority status, gender, external influence, and too little information remained significantly associated with voluntariness. Several groups of parents appear to be at risk for decreased voluntariness when making research or treatment decisions for their seriously ill children, including fathers, nonwhite parents, and those with less education. Parental voluntariness may be enhanced by helping parents to mitigate the effects of unhelpful or unwanted influences by others and ensuring that their information needs are met.

Willingness-to-pay for a probabilistic flood forecast: a risk-based decision-making game

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arnal, Louise; Ramos, Maria-Helena; Coughlan de Perez, Erin; Cloke, Hannah Louise; Stephens, Elisabeth; Wetterhall, Fredrik; van Andel, Schalk Jan; Pappenberger, Florian

2016-08-01

Probabilistic hydro-meteorological forecasts have over the last decades been used more frequently to communicate forecast uncertainty. This uncertainty is twofold, as it constitutes both an added value and a challenge for the forecaster and the user of the forecasts. Many authors have demonstrated the added (economic) value of probabilistic over deterministic forecasts across the water sector (e.g. flood protection, hydroelectric power management and navigation). However, the richness of the information is also a source of challenges for operational uses, due partially to the difficulty in transforming the probability of occurrence of an event into a binary decision. This paper presents the results of a risk-based decision-making game on the topic of flood protection mitigation, called "How much are you prepared to pay for a forecast?". The game was played at several workshops in 2015, which were attended by operational forecasters and academics working in the field of hydro-meteorology. The aim of this game was to better understand the role of probabilistic forecasts in decision-making processes and their perceived value by decision-makers. Based on the participants' willingness-to-pay for a forecast, the results of the game show that the value (or the usefulness) of a forecast depends on several factors, including the way users perceive the quality of their forecasts and link it to the perception of their own performances as decision-makers.

Optimizing Decision Preparedness by Adapting Scenario Complexity and Automating Scenario Generation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dunne, Rob; Schatz, Sae; Flore, Stephen M.; Nicholson, Denise

2011-01-01

Klein's recognition-primed decision (RPD) framework proposes that experts make decisions by recognizing similarities between current decision situations and previous decision experiences. Unfortunately, military personnel arQ often presented with situations that they have not experienced before. Scenario-based training (S8T) can help mitigate this gap. However, SBT remains a challenging and inefficient training approach. To address these limitations, the authors present an innovative formulation of scenario complexity that contributes to the larger research goal of developing an automated scenario generation system. This system will enable trainees to effectively advance through a variety of increasingly complex decision situations and experiences. By adapting scenario complexities and automating generation, trainees will be provided with a greater variety of appropriately calibrated training events, thus broadening their repositories of experience. Preliminary results from empirical testing (N=24) of the proof-of-concept formula are presented, and future avenues of scenario complexity research are also discussed.

Policy Directions Addressing the Public Health Impact of Climate Change in South Korea: The Climate-change Health Adaptation and Mitigation Program

PubMed Central

Shin, Yong Seung

2012-01-01

Climate change, caused by global warming, is increasingly recognized as a major threat to mankind's survival. Climate change concurrently has both direct and modifying influences on environmental, social, and public health systems undermining human health as a whole. Environmental health policy-makers need to make use of political and technological alternatives to address these ramifying effects. The objective of this paper is to review public health policy in Korea, as well as internationally, particularly as it relates to climate change health adaptation and mitigation programs (such as C-CHAMP of Korea), in order to assess and elicit directions for a robust environmental health policy that is adaptive to the health impacts of climate change. In Korea, comprehensive measures to prevent or mitigate overall health effects are limited, and the diffusion of responsibility among various government departments makes consistency in policy execution very difficult. This paper proposes integration, synergy, and utilization as the three core principles of policy direction for the assessment and adaptation to the health impacts of climate change. For specific action plans, we suggest policy making based on scientifically integrated health impact assessments and the prioritization of environmental factors in climate change; the development of practical and technological tools that support policy decisions by making their political implementation more efficient; and customized policy development that deals with the vulnerability of local communities. PMID:23256088

Policy Directions Addressing the Public Health Impact of Climate Change in South Korea: The Climate-change Health Adaptation and Mitigation Program.

PubMed

Shin, Yong Seung; Ha, Jongsik

2012-01-01

Climate change, caused by global warming, is increasingly recognized as a major threat to mankind's survival. Climate change concurrently has both direct and modifying influences on environmental, social, and public health systems undermining human health as a whole. Environmental health policy-makers need to make use of political and technological alternatives to address these ramifying effects. The objective of this paper is to review public health policy in Korea, as well as internationally, particularly as it relates to climate change health adaptation and mitigation programs (such as C-CHAMP of Korea), in order to assess and elicit directions for a robust environmental health policy that is adaptive to the health impacts of climate change. In Korea, comprehensive measures to prevent or mitigate overall health effects are limited, and the diffusion of responsibility among various government departments makes consistency in policy execution very difficult. This paper proposes integration, synergy, and utilization as the three core principles of policy direction for the assessment and adaptation to the health impacts of climate change. For specific action plans, we suggest policy making based on scientifically integrated health impact assessments and the prioritization of environmental factors in climate change; the development of practical and technological tools that support policy decisions by making their political implementation more efficient; and customized policy development that deals with the vulnerability of local communities.

Adapting forest health assessments to changing perspectives on threats--a case example from Sweden.

PubMed

Wulff, Sören; Lindelöw, Åke; Lundin, Lars; Hansson, Per; Axelsson, Anna-Lena; Barklund, Pia; Wijk, Sture; Ståhl, Göran

2012-04-01

A revised Swedish forest health assessment system is presented. The assessment system is composed of several interacting components which target information needs for strategic and operational decision making and accommodate a continuously expanding knowledge base. The main motivation for separating information for strategic and operational decision making is that major damage outbreaks are often scattered throughout the landscape. Generally, large-scale inventories (such as national forest inventories) cannot provide adequate information for mitigation measures. In addition to broad monitoring programs that provide time-series information on known damaging agents and their effects, there is also a need for local and regional inventories adapted to specific damage events. While information for decision making is the major focus of the health assessment system, the system also contributes to expanding the knowledge base of forest conditions. For example, the integrated monitoring programs provide a better understanding of ecological processes linked to forest health. The new health assessment system should be able to respond to the need for quick and reliable information and thus will be an important part of the future monitoring of Swedish forests.

Managing stress in a crisis.

PubMed

Wright-Reid, Alison

2018-01-01

Crisis situations are inherently uncertain and threatening. Although the primal stress reactions they provoke deliver some advantages, they so severely restrict intellect and behaviour that consultants observe crisis teams making the same mistakes over and again. Stress risks can be managed before, during and after a crisis. Crisis planning can select the right people, control the crisis team environment, and mitigate fatigue risks and memory demands. Because stress reactions are primitive, stress can be manipulated at a remarkably primitive level and teams can increase their resilience through such basics as sleep and breathing skills. Teams can learn to manipulate perceptions of danger, to tolerate uncertainty and to become comfortable making decisions which were reasonable at the time. Crisis leaders can frame the crisis as a challenge and options as gains, and can ensure the team avoids groupthink and challenges the paradigm. Where individuals are trained to apply critical thinking processes, intuitive decision-making is not only fast, but also accurate, and helps to challenge assumptions, predictions and groupthink. Crises are more easily recognised and managed where training has covered critical decision methods.

Unconscious emotional reasoning and the therapeutic misconception.

PubMed

Charuvastra, A; Marder, S R

2008-03-01

The "therapeutic misconception" describes a process whereby research volunteers misinterpret the intentions of researchers and the nature of clinical research. This misinterpretation leads research volunteers to falsely attribute a therapeutic potential to clinical research, and compromises informed decision making, therefore compromising the ethical integrity of a clinical experiment. We review recent evidence from the neurobiology of social cognition to provide a novel framework for thinking about the therapeutic misconception. We argue that the neurobiology of social cognition should be considered in any ethical analysis of how people make decisions about participating in clinical trials. The neurobiology of social cognition also suggests how the complicated dynamics of the doctor-patient relationship may unavoidably interfere with the process of obtaining informed consent. Following this argument we suggest new ways to prevent or at least mitigate the therapeutic misconception.

Improving Decision-Making Activities for Meningitis and Malaria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ceccato, P.; Trzaska, S.; Perez, C.; Kalashnikova, O. V.; del Corral, J.; Cousin, R.; Blumenthal, M. B.; Connor, S.; Thomson, M. C.

2012-12-01

Public health professionals are increasingly concerned about the potential impact that climate variability and change can have on infectious disease. The International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) is developing new products to increase the public health community's capacity to understand, use, and demand the appropriate climate data and climate information to mitigate the public health impacts of climate on infectious disease, in particular Meningitis and Malaria. In this paper we present the new and improved products that have been developed for monitoring dust, temperature, rainfall and vectorial capacity model for monitoring and forecasting risks of Meningitis and Malaria epidemics. We also present how the products have been integrated into a knowledge system (IRI Data Library Map room, SERVIR) to support the use of climate and environmental information in climate-sensitive health decision-making.

Command Process Modeling & Risk Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Meshkat, Leila

2011-01-01

Commanding Errors may be caused by a variety of root causes. It's important to understand the relative significance of each of these causes for making institutional investment decisions. One of these causes is the lack of standardized processes and procedures for command and control. We mitigate this problem by building periodic tables and models corresponding to key functions within it. These models include simulation analysis and probabilistic risk assessment models.

The U.S. Army Functional Concept for Intelligence 2020-2040

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-02-01

Soldiers to mitigate many complex problems of the future OE. Improved or new analytic processes will use very large data sets to address emerging...increasing. Army collection against publically available data sources may offer insights to social interconnectedness, political dynamics and complex... data used to support situational understanding. (5) Uncertainty and rapid change elevate the analytic risk associated with decision making and

Induction and blockade of adolescent cocaine-induced habits

PubMed Central

DePoy, Lauren M.; Zimmermann, Kelsey S.; Marvar, Paul J.; Gourley, Shannon L.

2017-01-01

Background Cocaine use during adolescence increases vulnerability to drug dependence and decreases the likelihood that individuals will seek treatment as adults. Understanding how early-life cocaine exposure influences decision-making processes in adulthood is thus critically important. Methods Adolescent or adult mice were exposed to subchronic cocaine, then behavioral sensitivity to changes in the predictive relationship between actions and their consequences was tested. Dendritic spines on the principal pyramidal neurons of the orbitofrontal prefrontal cortex (oPFC) were also imaged and enumerated. To determine whether cytoskeletal regulatory systems in the oPFC influenced decision-making strategies, we then inhibited the activity of Abl-family and Rho kinases, as well as NR2B-containing NMDA receptors. We also attempted to block the reinstatement of cocaine seeking in cocaine self-administering mice. Results Adult mice with a history of subchronic cocaine exposure in adolescence engaged habit-based response strategies at the expense of goal-directed decision-making strategies and had fewer dendritic spines in the oPFC. Inhibition of the cytoskeletal regulatory Abl-family kinases in the oPFC recapitulated these neurobehavioral deficiencies, while Rho-kinase inhibition corrected response strategies. Additionally, the NR2B-selective NMDA receptor antagonists ifenprodil and CP-101,606 blocked cocaine-induced habits, and this was dependent on Abl-family signaling in the oPFC. Ifenprodil also mitigated cue-induced reinstatement of cocaine seeking in mice self-administering cocaine. Conclusions We suggest that adolescent cocaine exposure confers a bias towards habit-based behavior in adulthood via long-term cellular structural modifications in the oPFC. Treatments aimed at mitigating the durable consequences of early-life cocaine may benefit from targeting cytoskeletal regulatory systems. PMID:27871669

Differential Contributions of Nucleus Accumbens Subregions to Cue-Guided Risk/Reward Decision Making and Implementation of Conditional Rules.

PubMed

Floresco, Stan B; Montes, David R; Tse, Maric M T; van Holstein, Mieke

2018-02-21

The nucleus accumbens (NAc) is a key node within corticolimbic circuitry for guiding action selection and cost/benefit decision making in situations involving reward uncertainty. Preclinical studies have typically assessed risk/reward decision making using assays where decisions are guided by internally generated representations of choice-outcome contingencies. Yet, real-life decisions are often influenced by external stimuli that inform about likelihoods of obtaining rewards. How different subregions of the NAc mediate decision making in such situations is unclear. Here, we used a novel assay colloquially termed the "Blackjack" task that models these types of situations. Male Long-Evans rats were trained to choose between one lever that always delivered a one-pellet reward and another that delivered four pellets with different probabilities [either 50% (good-odds) or 12.5% (poor-odds)], which were signaled by one of two auditory cues. Under control conditions, rats selected the large/risky option more often on good-odds versus poor-odds trials. Inactivation of the NAc core caused indiscriminate choice patterns. In contrast, NAc shell inactivation increased risky choice, more prominently on poor-odds trials. Additional experiments revealed that both subregions contribute to auditory conditional discrimination. NAc core or shell inactivation reduced Pavlovian approach elicited by an auditory CS+, yet shell inactivation also increased responding during presentation of a CS-. These data highlight distinct contributions for NAc subregions in decision making and reward seeking guided by discriminative stimuli. The core is crucial for implementation of conditional rules, whereas the shell refines reward seeking by mitigating the allure of larger, unlikely rewards and reducing expression of inappropriate or non-rewarded actions. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Using external cues to guide decision making is crucial for adaptive behavior. Deficits in cue-guided behavior have been associated with neuropsychiatric disorders, such as attention deficit hyperactivity disorder and schizophrenia, which in turn has been linked to aberrant processing in the nucleus accumbens. However, many preclinical studies have often assessed risk/reward decision making in the absence of explicit cues. The current study fills that gap by using a novel task that allows for the assessment of cue-guided risk/reward decision making in rodents. Our findings identified distinct yet complementary roles for the medial versus lateral portions of this nucleus that provide a broader understanding of the differential contributions it makes to decision making and reward seeking guided by discriminative stimuli. Copyright © 2018 the authors 0270-6474/18/381901-14$15.00/0.

Receptor-specific modulation of risk-based decision making by nucleus accumbens dopamine.

PubMed

Stopper, Colin M; Khayambashi, Shahin; Floresco, Stan B

2013-04-01

The nucleus accumbens (NAc) serves as an integral node within cortico-limbic circuitry that regulates various forms of cost-benefit decision making. The dopamine (DA) system has also been implicated in enabling organisms to overcome a variety of costs to obtain more valuable rewards. However, it remains unclear how DA activity within the NAc may regulate decision making involving reward uncertainty. This study investigated the contribution of different DA receptor subtypes in the NAc to risk-based decision making, assessed with a probabilistic discounting task. In well-trained rats, D1 receptor blockade with SCH 23,390 decreased preference for larger, uncertain rewards, which was associated with enhanced negative-feedback sensitivity (ie, an increased tendency to select a smaller/certain option after an unrewarded risky choice). Treatment with a D1 agonist (SKF 81,297) optimized decision making, increasing choice of the risky option when reward probability was high, and decreasing preference under low probability conditions. In stark contrast, neither blockade of NAc D2 receptors with eticlopride, nor stimulation of these receptors with quinpirole or bromocriptine influenced risky choice. In comparison, infusion of the D3-preferring agonist PD 128,907 decreased reward sensitivity and risky choice. Collectively, these results show that mesoaccumbens DA refines risk-reward decision biases via dissociable mechanisms recruiting D1 and D3, but not D2 receptors. D1 receptor activity mitigates the effect of reward omissions on subsequent choices to promote selection of reward options that may have greater long-term utility, whereas excessive D3 receptor activity blunts the impact that larger/uncertain rewards have in promoting riskier choices.

Decision-aided ICI mitigation with time-domain average approximation in CO-OFDM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ren, Hongliang; Cai, Jiaxing; Ye, Xin; Lu, Jin; Cao, Quanjun; Guo, Shuqin; Xue, Lin-lin; Qin, Yali; Hu, Weisheng

2015-07-01

We introduce and investigate the feasibility of a novel iterative blind phase noise inter-carrier interference (ICI) mitigation scheme for coherent optical orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (CO-OFDM) systems. The ICI mitigation scheme is performed through the combination of frequency-domain symbol decision-aided estimation and the ICI phase noise time-average approximation. An additional initial decision process with suitable threshold is introduced in order to suppress the decision error symbols. Our proposed ICI mitigation scheme is proved to be effective in removing the ICI for a simulated CO-OFDM with 16-QAM modulation format. With the slightly high computational complexity, it outperforms the time-domain average blind ICI (Avg-BL-ICI) algorithm at a relatively wide laser line-width and high OSNR.

Uncertainty Quantification and Risk Mitigation of CO2 Leakage in Groundwater Aquifers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Y.; Tong, C.; Mansoor, K.; Carroll, S.

2013-12-01

The risk of CO2 leakage into shallow aquifers through various pathways such as faults and abandoned wells is a concern of CO2 geological sequestration. If a leak is detected in an aquifer system, a contingency plan is required to manage the CO2 storage and to protect the groundwater source. Among many remediation and mitigation strategies, the simplest is to stop CO2 leakage at a wellbore. Therefore, it is necessary to address whether and when the CO2 leaks should be sealed, and how much risk can be mitigated. In the presence of various uncertainties, including geological-structure uncertainty and parametric uncertainty, the risk of CO2 leakage into an aquifer needs to be assessed with probabilistic distributions of uncertain parameters. In this study, we developed an integrated model to simulate multiphase flow of CO2 and brine in a deep storage reservoir, through a leaky well at an uncertain location, and subsequently multicomponent reactive transport in a shallow aquifer. Each sub-model covers its domain-specific physics. Uncertainties of geological structure and parameters are considered together with decision variables (CO2 injection rate and mitigation time) for risk assessment of leakage-impacted aquifer volume. High-resolution and less-expensive reduced-order models (ROMs) of risk profiles are approximated as polynomial functions of decision variables and all uncertain parameters. These reduced-order models are then used in the place of computationally-expensive numerical models for future decision-making on if and when the leaky well is sealed. The tradeoff between CO2 storage capacity in the reservoir and the leakage-induced risk in the aquifer is evaluated. This work performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under contract DE-AC52-07NA27344.

Practitioner perspectives on the role of science in environmental impact assessment.

PubMed

Morrison-Saunders, Angus; Bailey, John

2003-06-01

A large body of literature addresses the role of science in environmental impact assessment (EIA) but less attention has been given to the views of practitioners themselves. In this research a survey of 31 EIA practitioners in Western Australia was undertaken to determine their perceptions of the quality and importance of science in EIA. The survey results are compared with previous theoretical, empirical, and survey studies of the role of science in EIA. Interview questions addressed the role of science in impact prediction, monitoring activities, mitigation and management, and EIA decision-making. It was clear from the interviews that many practitioners are satisfied with the quality of science currently used in EIA, but do not believe that it is given sufficient importance in the process. The quality and importance of science in the predecision stages of EIA was rated higher than in the postdecision stages. While science was perceived to provide the basis for baseline data collection, impact prediction, and mitigation design, it was seen to be less important during decision-making and ongoing project management. Science was seen to be just one input to decision-makers along with other factors such as sociopolitical and economic considerations. While time and budget constraints were seen to limit the scientific integrity of EIA activities, pressure from the public and regulatory authorities increased it. Improving the scientific component of EIA will require consideration of all these factors, not just the technical issues.

Probabilistic Flood Maps to support decision-making: Mapping the Value of Information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alfonso, L.; Mukolwe, M. M.; Di Baldassarre, G.

2016-02-01

Floods are one of the most frequent and disruptive natural hazards that affect man. Annually, significant flood damage is documented worldwide. Flood mapping is a common preimpact flood hazard mitigation measure, for which advanced methods and tools (such as flood inundation models) are used to estimate potential flood extent maps that are used in spatial planning. However, these tools are affected, largely to an unknown degree, by both epistemic and aleatory uncertainty. Over the past few years, advances in uncertainty analysis with respect to flood inundation modeling show that it is appropriate to adopt Probabilistic Flood Maps (PFM) to account for uncertainty. However, the following question arises; how can probabilistic flood hazard information be incorporated into spatial planning? Thus, a consistent framework to incorporate PFMs into the decision-making is required. In this paper, a novel methodology based on Decision-Making under Uncertainty theories, in particular Value of Information (VOI) is proposed. Specifically, the methodology entails the use of a PFM to generate a VOI map, which highlights floodplain locations where additional information is valuable with respect to available floodplain management actions and their potential consequences. The methodology is illustrated with a simplified example and also applied to a real case study in the South of France, where a VOI map is analyzed on the basis of historical land use change decisions over a period of 26 years. Results show that uncertain flood hazard information encapsulated in PFMs can aid decision-making in floodplain planning.

Evaluation of low impact development approach for mitigating flood inundation at a watershed scale in China.

PubMed

Hu, Maochuan; Sayama, Takahiro; Zhang, Xingqi; Tanaka, Kenji; Takara, Kaoru; Yang, Hong

2017-05-15

Low impact development (LID) has attracted growing attention as an important approach for urban flood mitigation. Most studies evaluating LID performance for mitigating floods focus on the changes of peak flow and runoff volume. This paper assessed the performance of LID practices for mitigating flood inundation hazards as retrofitting technologies in an urbanized watershed in Nanjing, China. The findings indicate that LID practices are effective for flood inundation mitigation at the watershed scale, and especially for reducing inundated areas with a high flood hazard risk. Various scenarios of LID implementation levels can reduce total inundated areas by 2%-17% and areas with a high flood hazard level by 6%-80%. Permeable pavement shows better performance than rainwater harvesting against mitigating urban waterlogging. The most efficient scenario is combined rainwater harvesting on rooftops with a cistern capacity of 78.5 mm and permeable pavement installed on 75% of non-busy roads and other impervious surfaces. Inundation modeling is an effective approach to obtaining the information necessary to guide decision-making for designing LID practices at watershed scales. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cognitive debiasing 1: origins of bias and theory of debiasing.

PubMed

Croskerry, Pat; Singhal, Geeta; Mamede, Sílvia

2013-10-01

Numerous studies have shown that diagnostic failure depends upon a variety of factors. Psychological factors are fundamental in influencing the cognitive performance of the decision maker. In this first of two papers, we discuss the basics of reasoning and the Dual Process Theory (DPT) of decision making. The general properties of the DPT model, as it applies to diagnostic reasoning, are reviewed. A variety of cognitive and affective biases are known to compromise the decision-making process. They mostly appear to originate in the fast intuitive processes of Type 1 that dominate (or drive) decision making. Type 1 processes work well most of the time but they may open the door for biases. Removing or at least mitigating these biases would appear to be an important goal. We will also review the origins of biases. The consensus is that there are two major sources: innate, hard-wired biases that developed in our evolutionary past, and acquired biases established in the course of development and within our working environments. Both are associated with abbreviated decision making in the form of heuristics. Other work suggests that ambient and contextual factors may create high risk situations that dispose decision makers to particular biases. Fatigue, sleep deprivation and cognitive overload appear to be important determinants. The theoretical basis of several approaches towards debiasing is then discussed. All share a common feature that involves a deliberate decoupling from Type 1 intuitive processing and moving to Type 2 analytical processing so that eventually unexamined intuitive judgments can be submitted to verification. This decoupling step appears to be the critical feature of cognitive and affective debiasing.

Wetland Mitigation Monitoring at the Fernald Preserve - 13200

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Powell, Jane; Bien, Stephanie; Decker, Ashlee

The U.S. Department of Energy is responsible for 7.2 hectares (17.8 acres) of mitigation wetland at the Fernald Preserve, Ohio. Remedial activities affected the wetlands, and mitigation plans were incorporated into site-wide ecological restoration planning. In 2008, the Fernald Natural Resource Trustees developed a comprehensive wetland mitigation monitoring approach to evaluate whether compensatory mitigation requirements have been met. The Fernald Preserve Wetland Mitigation Monitoring Plan provided a guideline for wetland evaluations. The Ohio Environmental Protection Agency (Ohio EPA) wetland mitigation monitoring protocols were adopted as the means for compensatory wetland evaluation. Design, hydrologic regime, vegetation, wildlife, and biogeochemistry were evaluatedmore » from 2009 to 2011. Evaluations showed mixed results when compared to the Ohio EPA performance standards. Results of vegetation monitoring varied, with the best results occurring in wetlands adjacent to forested areas. Amphibians, particularly ambystomatid salamanders, were observed in two areas adjacent to forested areas. Not all wetlands met vegetation performance standards and amphibian biodiversity metrics. However, Fernald mitigation wetlands showed substantially higher ratings compared to other mitigated wetlands in Ohio. Also, soil sampling results remain consistent with other Ohio mitigated wetlands. The performance standards are not intended to be 'pass/fail' criteria; rather, they are reference points for use in making decisions regarding future monitoring and maintenance. The Trustees approved the Fernald Preserve Wetland Mitigation Monitoring Report with the provision that long-term monitoring of the wetlands continues at the Fernald Preserve. (authors)« less

The rise of politics and the decline of vulnerability as criteria in disaster decisions of the United States, 1953-2009.

PubMed

Daniels, R Steven

2013-10-01

This paper examines the shift from vulnerability to political responsiveness in presidential and gubernatorial disaster decisions in the United States from 1953-2009 (President Dwight D. Eisenhower to President Barack Obama) using annual request, declaration, and approval data from multiple sources. It makes three key conclusions: first, the 1988 Stafford Act expanded federal coverage to all categories of disasters, added a significant range of individual types of assistance, and provided extensive funding for recovery planning. Second, the election effects on disaster decisions increased over time whereas the impact of social and economic vulnerability (measured by scope of disaster) declined. Third, the changes affected governors more than presidents, and the choices of governors drove those of presidents. The analysis underscores the increasingly political nature of the disaster decision-making process, as well as the difficulty in emphasising mitigation and preparedness as intensively as response and recovery. Proactive intervention yields fewer political rewards than responsiveness. © 2013 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2013.

Feelings of women regarding end-of-life decision making after ultrasound diagnosis of a lethal fetal malformation.

PubMed

Benute, Gláucia R G; Nomura, Roseli M Y; Liao, Adolfo W; Brizot, Maria de Lourdes; de Lucia, Mara C S; Zugaib, M

2012-08-01

this study investigated the feelings of women regarding end-of-life decision making after ultrasound diagnosis of a lethal fetal malformation. The aim of this study was to present the decision making process of women that chose for pregnancy termination and to present selected speeches of women about their feelings. open psychological interviews conducted by a psychologist immediately after the diagnosis of fetal malformation by ultrasound. Analysis of the results was performed through a content analysis technique. the study was carried out at a public university hospital in Brazil. 249 pregnant women who had received the diagnosis of a severe lethal fetal malformation. fetal anencephaly was the most frequent anomaly detected in 135 cases (54.3%). Termination of pregnancy was decided by 172 (69.1%) patients and legally authorised by the judiciary (66%). The reason for asking for termination was to reduce suffering in all of them. In the 77 women who chose not to terminate pregnancy (30.9%), the reasons were related to feelings of guilt (74%). the results support the importance of psychological counselling for couples when lethal fetal malformation is diagnosed. The act of reviewing moral and cultural values and elements of the unconscious provides assurance in the decision-making process and mitigates the risk of emotional trauma and guilt that can continue long after the pregnancy is terminated. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Willingness-to-pay for a probabilistic flood forecast: a risk-based decision-making game

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arnal, Louise; Ramos, Maria-Helena; Coughlan, Erin; Cloke, Hannah L.; Stephens, Elisabeth; Wetterhall, Fredrik; van Andel, Schalk-Jan; Pappenberger, Florian

2016-04-01

Forecast uncertainty is a twofold issue, as it constitutes both an added value and a challenge for the forecaster and the user of the forecasts. Many authors have demonstrated the added (economic) value of probabilistic forecasts over deterministic forecasts for a diversity of activities in the water sector (e.g. flood protection, hydroelectric power management and navigation). However, the richness of the information is also a source of challenges for operational uses, due partially to the difficulty to transform the probability of occurrence of an event into a binary decision. The setup and the results of a risk-based decision-making experiment, designed as a game on the topic of flood protection mitigation, called ``How much are you prepared to pay for a forecast?'', will be presented. The game was played at several workshops in 2015, including during this session at the EGU conference in 2015, and a total of 129 worksheets were collected and analysed. The aim of this experiment was to contribute to the understanding of the role of probabilistic forecasts in decision-making processes and their perceived value by decision-makers. Based on the participants' willingness-to-pay for a forecast, the results of the game showed that the value (or the usefulness) of a forecast depends on several factors, including the way users perceive the quality of their forecasts and link it to the perception of their own performances as decision-makers. Balancing avoided costs and the cost (or the benefit) of having forecasts available for making decisions is not straightforward, even in a simplified game situation, and is a topic that deserves more attention from the hydrological forecasting community in the future.

Hurdling barriers through market uncertainty: Case studies ininnovative technology adoption

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Payne, Christopher T.; Radspieler Jr., Anthony; Payne, Jack

The crisis atmosphere surrounding electricity availability in California during the summer of 2001 produced two distinct phenomena in commercial energy consumption decision-making: desires to guarantee energy availability while blackouts were still widely anticipated, and desires to avoid or mitigate significant price increases when higher commercial electricity tariffs took effect. The climate of increased consideration of these factors seems to have led, in some cases, to greater willingness on the part of business decision-makers to consider highly innovative technologies. This paper examines three case studies of innovative technology adoption: retrofit of time-and-temperature signs on an office building; installation of fuel cellsmore » to supply power, heating, and cooling to the same building; and installation of a gas-fired heat pump at a microbrewery. We examine the decision process that led to adoption of these technologies. In each case, specific constraints had made more conventional energy-efficient technologies inapplicable. We examine how these barriers to technology adoption developed over time, how the California energy decision-making climate combined with the characteristics of these innovative technologies to overcome the barriers, and what the implications of hurdling these barriers are for future energy decisions within the firms.« less

Mitigating Issues Related to the Modeling of Insurgent Recruitment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Briscoe, Erica; Trewhitt, Ethan; Weiss, Lora; Whitaker, Elizabeth

Modeling the specific motivations and influences related to an individual's decision to become involved in insurgent warfare presents its own collection of unique challenges. The difficulty of the problem often necessitates simplifications that, while making the task more manageable, may inadvertently 'smooth away' critical aspects of the problem. Augmenting the challenge is that research into the motivations of terrorism has found there is not a definitive set of variables that serve as reliable indicators of an individual's involvement. This paper addresses techniques aimed toward mitigating issues that manifest in the modeling of insurgent recruitment so that these complications do not lessen the viability of models that are used in the prediction and evaluation of terrorist activity.

From tsunami hazard assessment to risk management in Guadeloupe (F.W.I.)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zahibo, Narcisse; Dudon, Bernard; Krien, Yann; Arnaud, Gaël; Mercado, Aurelio; Roger, Jean

2017-04-01

The Caribbean region is prone to numerous natural hazards such as earthquakes, landslides, storm surges, tsunamis, coastal erosion or hurricanes. All these threats may cause great human and economic losses and are thus of prime interest for applied research. One of the main challenges for the scientific community is to conduct state-of-the-art research to assess hazards and share the results with coastal planners and decision makers so that they can regulate land use and develop mitigation strategies. We present here the results of a scientific collaborative project between Guadeloupe and Porto Rico which aimed at bringing a decision-making support to the authorities regarding tsunami hazards. This project led us to build a database of potential extreme events, and to study their impacts on Guadeloupe to investigate storm surge and tsunami hazards. The results were used by local authorities to develop safeguarding and mitigation measures in coastal areas. This project is thus a good example to demonstrate the benefit of inter Caribbean scientific collaboration for natural risks management.

Organizational pressures and mitigating strategies in small commercial aviation: findings from Alaska.

PubMed

Bearman, Chris; Paletz, Susannah B F; Orasanu, Judith; Brooks, Benjamin P

2009-12-01

Recent attention has focused on the way in which organizational factors can erode safety in aviation, particularly in regions that have a high accident rate, such as Alaska. The present study builds on this work by examining the direct and indirect pressures that can be exerted on pilots by Alaskan operators. In addition, the paper examines ways in which organizations and individuals manage the effects of pressure. Using the critical incident method to uncover situations where the pilot's skills had been challenged, 28 pilots who flew in Alaska were interviewed. A bottom-up qualitative analysis revealed a range of organizational pressures and mitigating strategies. Pilots in Alaska encountered both implicit and explicit norms and expectations to fly in marginal conditions. Pressure also arose from pilots' awareness of the need for their company to make money and from perceived job competition. Some Alaskan operators were able to mitigate the effects of pressure on their pilots and some pilots reported mitigating pressure to fly by managing their employer's expectations and re-emphasizing safety. Organizational factors were found to be an important source of pressure for pilots and are likely to contribute to the high accident rate in Alaska. Balancing the competing demands of safety and productivity may be extremely difficult for many small operators, which places a heavy reliance on the decision making of individuals. Both the subtle pressures on individual pilots and strategies for mitigating those pressures are, therefore, extremely important to safety and productivity in small-scale commercial aviation.

The scientific management of volcanic crises

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marzocchi, Warner; Newhall, Christopher; Woo, Gordon

2012-12-01

Sound scientific management of volcanic crises is the primary tool to reduce significantly volcanic risk in the short-term. At present, a wide variety of qualitative or semi-quantitative strategies is adopted, and there is not yet a commonly accepted quantitative and general strategy. Pre-eruptive processes are extremely complicated, with many degrees of freedom nonlinearly coupled, and poorly known, so scientists must quantify eruption forecasts through the use of probabilities. On the other hand, this also forces decision-makers to make decisions under uncertainty. We review the present state of the art in this field in order to identify the main gaps of the existing procedures. Then, we put forward a general quantitative procedure that may overcome the present barriers, providing guidelines on how probabilities may be used to take rational mitigation actions. These procedures constitute a crucial link between science and society; they can be used to establish objective and transparent decision-making protocols and also clarify the role and responsibility of each partner involved in managing a crisis.

Development Of An Open System For Integration Of Heterogeneous Models For Flood Forecasting And Hazard Mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, W.; Tsai, W.; Lin, F.; Lin, S.; Lien, H.; Chung, T.; Huang, L.; Lee, K.; Chang, C.

2008-12-01

During a typhoon or a heavy storm event, using various forecasting models to predict rainfall intensity, and water level variation in rivers and flood situation in the urban area is able to reveal its capability technically. However, in practice, the following two causes tend to restrain the further application of these models as a decision support system (DSS) for the hazard mitigation. The first one is due to the difficulty of integration of heterogeneous models. One has to take into consideration the different using format of models, such as input files, output files, computational requirements, and so on. The second one is that the development of DSS requires, due to the heterogeneity of models and systems, a friendly user interface or platform to hide the complexity of various tools from users. It is expected that users can be governmental officials rather than professional experts, therefore the complicated interface of DSS is not acceptable. Based on the above considerations, in the present study, we develop an open system for integration of several simulation models for flood forecasting by adopting the FEWS (Flood Early Warning System) platform developed by WL | Delft Hydraulics. It allows us to link heterogeneous models effectively and provides suitable display modules. In addition, FEWS also has been adopted by Water Resource Agency (WRA), Taiwan as the standard operational system for river flooding management. That means this work can be much easily integrated with the use of practical cases. In the present study, based on FEWS platform, the basin rainfall-runoff model, SOBEK channel-routing model, and estuary tide forecasting model are linked and integrated through the physical connection of model initial and boundary definitions. The work flow of the integrated processes of models is shown in Fig. 1. This differs from the typical single model linking used in FEWS, which only aims at data exchange but without much physical consideration. So it really makes the tighter collaboration work among these hydrological models. In addition, in order to make communication between system users and decision makers efficient and effective, a real-time and multi-user communication platform, designated as Co-life, is incorporated in the present study. Through its application sharing function, the flood forecasting results can be displayed for all attendees situated at different locations to help the processes of decision making for hazard mitigation. Fig. 2 shows the cyber-conference of WRA officials with the Co-life system for hazard mitigation during the typhoon event.

Web-Based Geospatial Tools to Address Hazard Mitigation, Natural Resource Management, and Other Societal Issues

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hearn,, Paul P.

2009-01-01

Federal, State, and local government agencies in the United States face a broad range of issues on a daily basis. Among these are natural hazard mitigation, homeland security, emergency response, economic and community development, water supply, and health and safety services. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) helps decision makers address these issues by providing natural hazard assessments, information on energy, mineral, water and biological resources, maps, and other geospatial information. Increasingly, decision makers at all levels are challenged not by the lack of information, but by the absence of effective tools to synthesize the large volume of data available, and to utilize the data to frame policy options in a straightforward and understandable manner. While geographic information system (GIS) technology has been widely applied to this end, systems with the necessary analytical power have been usable only by trained operators. The USGS is addressing the need for more accessible, manageable data tools by developing a suite of Web-based geospatial applications that will incorporate USGS and cooperating partner data into the decision making process for a variety of critical issues. Examples of Web-based geospatial tools being used to address societal issues follow.

Improving conservation of Florida manatees (Trichechus manatus latirostris): conceptualization and contributions toward a regional warm-water network management strategy for sustainable winter habitat.

PubMed

Flamm, Richard Owen; Reynolds, John Elliot; Harmak, Craig

2013-01-01

We used southwestern Florida as a case study to lay the groundwork for an intended and organized decision-making process for managing warm-water habitat needed by endangered manatees to survive winters in Florida. Scientists and managers have prioritized (a) projecting how the network of warm-water sites will change over the next 50 years as warmed industrial discharges may expire and as flows of natural springs are reduced through redirection of water for human uses, and (b) mitigating such changes to prevent undue consequences to manatees. Given the complexities introduced by manatee ecology; agency organizational structure; shifting public demands; fluctuating resource availability; and managing within interacting cultural, social, political, and environmental contexts, it was clear that a structured decision process was needed. To help promote such a process, we collected information relevant to future decisions including maps of known and suspected warm-water sites and prototyped a characterization of sites and networks. We propose steps that would lead to models that might serve as core tools in manatee/warm-water decision-making, and we summarized topics relevant for informed decision-making (e.g., manatee spatial cognition, risk of cold-stress morbidity and mortality, and human dimensions). A major impetus behind this effort is to ensure proactively that robust modeling tools are available well in advance of the anticipated need for a critical management decision.

Improving Conservation of Florida Manatees ( Trichechus manatus latirostris): Conceptualization and Contributions Toward a Regional Warm-Water Network Management Strategy for Sustainable Winter Habitat

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flamm, Richard Owen; Reynolds, John Elliot; Harmak, Craig

2013-01-01

We used southwestern Florida as a case study to lay the groundwork for an intended and organized decision-making process for managing warm-water habitat needed by endangered manatees to survive winters in Florida. Scientists and managers have prioritized (a) projecting how the network of warm-water sites will change over the next 50 years as warmed industrial discharges may expire and as flows of natural springs are reduced through redirection of water for human uses, and (b) mitigating such changes to prevent undue consequences to manatees. Given the complexities introduced by manatee ecology; agency organizational structure; shifting public demands; fluctuating resource availability; and managing within interacting cultural, social, political, and environmental contexts, it was clear that a structured decision process was needed. To help promote such a process, we collected information relevant to future decisions including maps of known and suspected warm-water sites and prototyped a characterization of sites and networks. We propose steps that would lead to models that might serve as core tools in manatee/warm-water decision-making, and we summarized topics relevant for informed decision-making (e.g., manatee spatial cognition, risk of cold-stress morbidity and mortality, and human dimensions). A major impetus behind this effort is to ensure proactively that robust modeling tools are available well in advance of the anticipated need for a critical management decision.

The Impacts of Climate Change Mitigation Strategies on Animal Welfare.

PubMed

Shields, Sara; Orme-Evans, Geoffrey

2015-05-21

The objective of this review is to point out that the global dialog on reducing greenhouse gas emissions in animal agriculture has, thus far, not adequately considered animal welfare in proposed climate change mitigation strategies. Many suggested approaches for reducing emissions, most of which could generally be described as calls for the intensification of production, can have substantial effects on the animals. Given the growing world-wide awareness and concern for animal welfare, many of these approaches are not socially sustainable. This review identifies the main emission abatement strategies in the climate change literature that would negatively affect animal welfare and details the associated problems. Alternative strategies are also identified as possible solutions for animal welfare and climate change, and it is suggested that more attention be focused on these types of options when allocating resources, researching mitigation strategies, and making policy decisions on reducing emissions from animal agriculture.

Effects of Information Visualization on Older Adults' Decision-Making Performance in a Medicare Plan Selection Task: A Comparative Usability Study.

PubMed

Price, Margaux M; Crumley-Branyon, Jessica J; Leidheiser, William R; Pak, Richard

2016-06-01

Technology gains have improved tools for evaluating complex tasks by providing environmental supports (ES) that increase ease of use and improve performance outcomes through the use of information visualizations (info-vis). Complex info-vis emphasize the need to understand individual differences in abilities of target users, the key cognitive abilities needed to execute a decision task, and the graphical elements that can serve as the most effective ES. Older adults may be one such target user group that would benefit from increased ES to mitigate specific declines in cognitive abilities. For example, choosing a prescription drug plan is a necessary and complex task that can impact quality of life if the wrong choice is made. The decision to enroll in one plan over another can involve comparing over 15 plans across many categories. Within this context, the large amount of complex information and reduced working memory capacity puts older adults' decision making at a disadvantage. An intentionally designed ES, such as an info-vis that reduces working memory demand, may assist older adults in making the most effective decision among many options. The objective of this study is to examine whether the use of an info-vis can lower working memory demands and positively affect complex decision-making performance of older adults in the context of choosing a Medicare prescription drug plan. Participants performed a computerized decision-making task in the context of finding the best health care plan. Data included quantitative decision-making performance indicators and surveys examining previous history with purchasing insurance. Participants used a colored info-vis ES or a table (no ES) to perform the decision task. Task difficulty was manipulated by increasing the number of selection criteria used to make an accurate decision. A repeated measures analysis was performed to examine differences between the two table designs. Twenty-three older adults between the ages of 66 and 80 completed the study. There was a main effect for accuracy such that older adults made more accurate decisions in the color info-vis condition than the table condition. In the low difficulty condition, participants were more successful at choosing the correct answer when the question was about the gap coverage attribute in the info-vis condition. Participants also made significantly faster decisions in the info-vis condition than in the table condition. Reducing the working memory demand of the task through the use of an ES can improve decision accuracy, especially when selection criteria is only focused on a single attribute of the insurance plan.

Experiences using Visualization Techniques to Present Requirements, Risks to Them, and Options for Risk Mitigation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Feather, Martin S.; Cornford, Steven L.; Kiper, James D.; Menzies, Tim

2006-01-01

For several years we have been employing a risk-based decision process to guide development and application of advanced technologies, and for research and technology portfolio planning. The process is supported by custom software, in which visualization plays an important role. During requirements gathering, visualization is used to help scrutinize the status (completeness, extent) of the information. During decision making based on the gathered information, visualization is used to help decisionmakers understand the space of options and their consequences. In this paper we summarize the visualization capabilities that we have employed, indicating when and how they have proven useful.

The effects of stress on nuclear power plant operational decision making and training approaches to reduce stress effects

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mumaw, R.J.

1994-08-01

Operational personnel may be exposed to significant levels of stress during unexpected changes in plant state an plant emergencies. The decision making that identifies operational actions, which is strongly determined by procedures, may be affected by stress, and performance may be impaired. ER report analyzes potential effects of stress in nuclear power plant (NPP) settings, especially in the context of severe accident management (SAM). First, potential sources of stress in the NPP setting are identified. This analysis is followed by a review of the ways in which stress is likely to affect performance, with an emphasis on performance of cognitivemore » skills that are linked to operational decision making. Finally, potential training approaches for reducing or eliminating stress effects are identified. Several training approaches have the potential to eliminate or mitigate stress effects on cognitive skill performance. First, the use of simulated events for training can reduce the novelty and uncertainty that can lead to stress and performance impairments. Second, training to make cognitive processing more efficient and less reliant on attention and memory resources can offset the reductions in these resources that occur under stressful conditions. Third, training that targets crew communications skills can reduce the likelihood that communications will fail under stress.« less

How well does the Post-fire Erosion Risk Management Tool (ERMiT) really work?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robichaud, Peter; Elliot, William; Lewis, Sarah; Miller, Mary Ellen

2016-04-01

The decision of where, when, and how to apply the most effective postfire erosion mitigation treatments requires land managers to assess the risk of damaging runoff and erosion events occurring after a fire. The Erosion Risk Management Tool (ERMiT) was developed to assist post fire assessment teams identify high erosion risk areas and effectiveness of various mitigation treatments to reduce that risk. ERMiT is a web-based application that uses the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) technology to estimate erosion, in probabilistic terms, on burned and recovering forest, range, and chaparral lands with and without the application of mitigation treatments. User inputs are processed by ERMiT to combine rain event variability with spatial and temporal variabilities of hillslope burn severity and soil properties which are then used as WEPP inputs. Since 2007, the model has been used in making hundreds of land management decisions in the US and elsewhere. We use eight published field study sites in the Western US to compare ERMiT predictions to observed hillslope erosion rates. Most sites experience only a few rainfall events that produced runoff and sediment except for a California site with a Mediterranean climate. When hillslope erosion occurred, significant correlations occurred between the observed hillslope erosion and those predicted by ERMiT. Significant correlation occurred for most mitigation treatments as well as the five recovery years. These model validation results suggest reasonable estimates of probabilistic post-fire hillslope sediment delivery when compared to observation.

Cognitive debiasing 1: origins of bias and theory of debiasing

PubMed Central

Croskerry, Pat; Singhal, Geeta; Mamede, Sílvia

2013-01-01

Numerous studies have shown that diagnostic failure depends upon a variety of factors. Psychological factors are fundamental in influencing the cognitive performance of the decision maker. In this first of two papers, we discuss the basics of reasoning and the Dual Process Theory (DPT) of decision making. The general properties of the DPT model, as it applies to diagnostic reasoning, are reviewed. A variety of cognitive and affective biases are known to compromise the decision-making process. They mostly appear to originate in the fast intuitive processes of Type 1 that dominate (or drive) decision making. Type 1 processes work well most of the time but they may open the door for biases. Removing or at least mitigating these biases would appear to be an important goal. We will also review the origins of biases. The consensus is that there are two major sources: innate, hard-wired biases that developed in our evolutionary past, and acquired biases established in the course of development and within our working environments. Both are associated with abbreviated decision making in the form of heuristics. Other work suggests that ambient and contextual factors may create high risk situations that dispose decision makers to particular biases. Fatigue, sleep deprivation and cognitive overload appear to be important determinants. The theoretical basis of several approaches towards debiasing is then discussed. All share a common feature that involves a deliberate decoupling from Type 1 intuitive processing and moving to Type 2 analytical processing so that eventually unexamined intuitive judgments can be submitted to verification. This decoupling step appears to be the critical feature of cognitive and affective debiasing. PMID:23882089

Decision Modeling Framework to Minimize Arrival Delays from Ground Delay Programs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohleji, Nandita

Convective weather and other constraints create uncertainty in air transportation, leading to costly delays. A Ground Delay Program (GDP) is a strategy to mitigate these effects. Systematic decision support can increase GDP efficacy, reduce delays, and minimize direct operating costs. In this study, a decision analysis (DA) model is constructed by combining a decision tree and Bayesian belief network. Through a study of three New York region airports, the DA model demonstrates that larger GDP scopes that include more flights in the program, along with longer lead times that provide stakeholders greater notice of a pending program, trigger the fewest average arrival delays. These findings are demonstrated to result in a savings of up to $1,850 per flight. Furthermore, when convective weather is predicted, forecast weather confidences remain the same level or greater at least 70% of the time, supporting more strategic decision making. The DA model thus enables quantification of uncertainties and insights on causal relationships, providing support for future GDP decisions.

Applying the Land Use Portfolio Model to Estimate Natural-Hazard Loss and Risk - A Hypothetical Demonstration for Ventura County, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dinitz, Laura B.

2008-01-01

With costs of natural disasters skyrocketing and populations increasingly settling in areas vulnerable to natural hazards, society is challenged to better allocate its limited risk-reduction resources. In 2000, Congress passed the Disaster Mitigation Act, amending the Robert T. Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Assistance Act (Robert T. Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Assistance Act, Pub. L. 93-288, 1988; Federal Emergency Management Agency, 2002, 2008b; Disaster Mitigation Act, 2000), mandating that State, local, and tribal communities prepare natural-hazard mitigation plans to qualify for pre-disaster mitigation grants and post-disaster aid. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) was assigned to coordinate and implement hazard-mitigation programs, and it published information about specific mitigation-plan requirements and the mechanisms (through the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program-HMGP) for distributing funds (Federal Emergency Management Agency, 2002). FEMA requires that each community develop a mitigation strategy outlining long-term goals to reduce natural-hazard vulnerability, mitigation objectives and specific actions to reduce the impacts of natural hazards, and an implementation plan for those actions. The implementation plan should explain methods for prioritizing, implementing, and administering the actions, along with a 'cost-benefit review' justifying the prioritization. FEMA, along with the National Institute of Building Sciences (NIBS), supported the development of HAZUS ('Hazards U.S.'), a geospatial natural-hazards loss-estimation tool, to help communities quantify potential losses and to aid in the selection and prioritization of mitigation actions. HAZUS was expanded to a multiple-hazard version, HAZUS-MH, that combines population, building, and natural-hazard science and economic data and models to estimate physical damages, replacement costs, and business interruption for specific natural-hazard scenarios. HAZUS-MH currently performs analyses for earthquakes, floods, and hurricane wind. HAZUS-MH loss estimates, however, do not account for some uncertainties associated with the specific natural-hazard scenarios, such as the likelihood of occurrence within a particular time horizon or the effectiveness of alternative risk-reduction options. Because of the uncertainties involved, it is challenging to make informative decisions about how to cost-effectively reduce risk from natural-hazard events. Risk analysis is one approach that decision-makers can use to evaluate alternative risk-reduction choices when outcomes are unknown. The Land Use Portfolio Model (LUPM), developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), is a geospatial scenario-based tool that incorporates hazard-event uncertainties to support risk analysis. The LUPM offers an approach to estimate and compare risks and returns from investments in risk-reduction measures. This paper describes and demonstrates a hypothetical application of the LUPM for Ventura County, California, and examines the challenges involved in developing decision tools that provide quantitative methods to estimate losses and analyze risk from natural hazards.

Disgust as a Mechanism for Decision Making Under Risk: Illuminating Sex Differences and Individual Risk-Taking Correlates of Disgust Propensity.

PubMed

Sparks, Adam Maxwell; Fessler, Daniel M T; Chan, Kai Qin; Ashokkumar, Ashwini; Holbrook, Colin

2018-02-01

The emotion disgust motivates costly behavioral strategies that mitigate against potentially larger costs associated with pathogens, sexual behavior, and moral transgressions. Because disgust thereby regulates exposure to harm, it is by definition a mechanism for calibrating decision making under risk. Understanding this illuminates two features of the demographic distribution of this emotion. First, this approach predicts and explains sex differences in disgust. Greater female disgust propensity is often reported and discussed in the literature, but, to date, conclusions have been based on informal comparisons across a small number of studies, while existing functionalist explanations are at best incomplete. We report the results of an extensive meta-analysis documenting this sex difference, arguing that key features of this pattern are best explained as one manifestation of a broad principle of the evolutionary biology of risk-taking: for a given potential benefit, males in an effectively polygynous mating system accept the risk of harm more willingly than do females. Second, viewing disgust as a mechanism for decision making under risk likewise predicts that individual differences in disgust propensity should correlate with individual differences in various forms of risky behavior, because situational and dispositional factors that influence valuation of opportunity and hazard are often correlated across multiple decision contexts. In two large-sample online studies, we find consistent associations between disgust and risk avoidance. We conclude that disgust and related emotions can be usefully examined through the theoretical lens of decision making under risk in light of human evolution. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Groundwater quality, age, and susceptibility and vulnerability to nitrate contamination with linkages to land use and groundwater flow, Upper Black Squirrel Creek Basin, Colorado, 2013

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wellman, Tristan P.; Rupert, Michael G.

2016-03-03

The results of this investigation offer the foundational information needed for developing best management practices to mitigate nitrate contamination, basic concepts on water quality to aid public education, and information to guide regulatory measures if policy makers determine this is warranted. Science-based decision making will require continued monitoring and analysis of water quality in the future.

PM₂.₅ opened a door to public participation addressing environmental challenges in China.

PubMed

Huang, Ganlin

2015-02-01

China has long been regarded as a centralized society where the public has little influence on decision-making. Such a top-down management scheme is perceived as a major obstacle to address complicated environment issues. The recent public campaign in China to urge creation of a nationwide PM₂.₅ monitoring network and mitigation plan provides an unprecedented case of how the public participated and influenced policy-making in a centralized society. This paper reviews key incidents in the campaign chronologically. Here we identify information technology, public awareness of air quality's health impacts and the fact air quality affects everyone as public goods as the major factors promoting public participation. This case demonstrates that public participation can happen in a centralized, top-down society such as China. Continued environmental deterioration may stimulate similar campaigns for other issues. We anticipate this essay to be a starting point for more studies on how environmental issues stimulate incremental social change by making people involved in decision-making process, especially in societies where they are rarely able to do so. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using Risk Assessment Methodologies to Meet Management Objectives

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DeMott, D. L.

2015-01-01

Corporate and program objectives focus on desired performance and results. ?Management decisions that affect how to meet these objectives now involve a complex mix of: technology, safety issues, operations, process considerations, employee considerations, regulatory requirements, financial concerns and legal issues. ?Risk Assessments are a tool for decision makers to understand potential consequences and be in a position to reduce, mitigate or eliminate costly mistakes or catastrophic failures. Using a risk assessment methodology is only a starting point. ?A risk assessment program provides management with important input in the decision making process. ?A pro-active organization looks to the future to avoid problems, a reactive organization can be blindsided by risks that could have been avoided. ?You get out what you put in, how useful your program is will be up to the individual organization.

Naturalistic Decision Making For Power System Operators

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Greitzer, Frank L.; Podmore, Robin; Robinson, Marck

2009-06-23

Abstract: Motivation -- As indicated by the Blackout of 2003, the North American interconnected electric system is vulnerable to cascading outages and widespread blackouts. Investigations of large scale outages often attribute the causes to the three T’s: Trees, Training and Tools. A systematic approach has been developed to document and understand the mental processes that an expert power system operator uses when making critical decisions. The approach has been developed and refined as part of a capability demonstration of a high-fidelity real-time power system simulator under normal and emergency conditions. To examine naturalistic decision making (NDM) processes, transcripts of operator-to-operatormore » conversations are analyzed to reveal and assess NDM-based performance criteria. Findings/Design -- The results of the study indicate that we can map the Situation Awareness Level of the operators at each point in the scenario. We can also identify clearly what mental models and mental simulations are being performed at different points in the scenario. As a result of this research we expect that we can identify improved training methods and improved analytical and visualization tools for power system operators. Originality/Value -- The research applies for the first time, the concepts of Recognition Primed Decision Making, Situation Awareness Levels and Cognitive Task Analysis to training of electric power system operators. Take away message -- The NDM approach provides an ideal framework for systematic training management and mitigation to accelerate learning in team-based training scenarios with high-fidelity power grid simulators.« less

Risk Assessment Overview

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Prassinos, Peter G.; Lyver, John W., IV; Bui, Chinh T.

2011-01-01

Risk assessment is used in many industries to identify and manage risks. Initially developed for use on aeronautical and nuclear systems, risk assessment has been applied to transportation, chemical, computer, financial, and security systems among others. It is used to gain an understanding of the weaknesses or vulnerabilities in a system so modification can be made to increase operability, efficiency, and safety and to reduce failure and down-time. Risk assessment results are primary inputs to risk-informed decision making; where risk information including uncertainty is used along with other pertinent information to assist management in the decision-making process. Therefore, to be useful, a risk assessment must be directed at specific objectives. As the world embraces the globalization of trade and manufacturing, understanding the associated risk become important to decision making. Applying risk assessment techniques to a global system of development, manufacturing, and transportation can provide insight into how the system can fail, the likelihood of system failure and the consequences of system failure. The risk assessment can identify those elements that contribute most to risk and identify measures to prevent and mitigate failures, disruptions, and damaging outcomes. In addition, risk associated with public and environment impact can be identified. The risk insights gained can be applied to making decisions concerning suitable development and manufacturing locations, supply chains, and transportation strategies. While risk assessment has been mostly applied to mechanical and electrical systems, the concepts and techniques can be applied across other systems and activities. This paper provides a basic overview of the development of a risk assessment.

SAFRR Tsunami Scenarios and USGS-NTHMP Collaboration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ross, S.; Wood, N. J.; Cox, D. A.; Jones, L.; Cheung, K. F.; Chock, G.; Gately, K.; Jones, J. L.; Lynett, P. J.; Miller, K.; Nicolsky, D.; Richards, K.; Wein, A. M.; Wilson, R. I.

2015-12-01

Hazard scenarios provide emergency managers and others with information to help them prepare for future disasters. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario, published in 2013, modeled a hypothetical but plausible tsunami, created by an Mw9.1 earthquake occurring offshore from the Alaskan peninsula, and its impacts on the California coast. It presented the modeled inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management, and policy implications for California associated with the scenario tsunami. The intended users were those responsible for making mitigation decisions before and those who need to make rapid decisions during future tsunamis. It provided the basis for many exercises involving, among others, NOAA, the State of Washington, several counties in California, and the National Institutes of Health. The scenario led to improvements in the warning protocol for southern California and highlighted issues that led to ongoing work on harbor and marina safety. Building on the lessons learned in the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario, another tsunami scenario is being developed with impacts to Hawaii and to the source region in Alaska, focusing on the evacuation issues of remote communities with primarily shore parallel roads, and also on the effects of port closures. Community exposure studies in Hawaii (Ratliff et al., USGS-SIR, 2015) provided background for selecting these foci. One complicated and important aspect of any hazard scenario is defining the source event. The USGS is building collaborations with the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) to consider issues involved in developing a standardized set of tsunami sources to support hazard mitigation work. Other key USGS-NTHMP collaborations involve population vulnerability and evacuation modeling.

Prefrontal Recruitment Mitigates Risk-Taking Behavior in Human Immunodeficiency Virus-Infected Young Adults.

PubMed

Smith, Robert X; Guha, Anika; Vaida, Florin; Paul, Robert H; Ances, Beau

2018-05-02

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected (HIV+) young adults often engage in risk-taking behavior. However, the disruptive effects of HIV on the neurobiological underpinnings of risky decision making are not well understood. Risky decision making, measured via the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT), was compared voxel-wise to resting cerebral blood flow (rCBF) acquired via arterial spin labeling. Separate topographical maps were obtained for HIV-uninfected (HIV-; n = 62) and HIV+ (n = 41) young adults (18-24 years old) and were compared to the full cohort of participants. For the HIV+ group, rCBF was compared to recent and nadir CD4. IGT performance was supported by rCBF in 3 distinct brain regions: regions I, II, and III. The relationship between IGT performance and rCBF in HIV+ individuals was most robust in region I, the ventromedial prefrontal and insular cortices. Region II contained strong relationships for both HIV- and HIV+. Region III, dorsolateral prefrontal and posterior cingulate cortices, contained relationships that were strongest for HIV- controls. IGT performance was intact among HIV+ participants with higher rCBF in either region I or region III. By contrast, performance was worse among HIV+ individuals with lower rCBF in both regions I and III when compared to HIV- controls (P = .01). rCBF in region III was reduced in HIV+ compared with HIV- individuals (P = .04), and positively associated with nadir CD4 cell count (P = .02). Recruitment of executive systems (region III) mitigates risk-taking behavior in HIV+ and HIV- individuals. Recruitment of reward systems (region I) mitigates risk-taking behavior when region III is disrupted due to immunological compromise. Identifying individual recruitment patterns may aid anatomically directed therapeutics or psychosocial interventions.

Illness and the disruption of autobiography: accounting for the complex effect of awareness in schizophrenia.

PubMed

Lysaker, Paul H; Buck, Kelly D

2007-09-01

Interventions for individuals with schizophrenia often involve helping clients become more aware of their condition so they can make informed decisions about their treatment and recovery. Yet the effect of awareness or admission of schizophrenia has remained elusive. Empirical research has found that awareness of illness is essential for people to make informed decisions about the future, to free themselves from blame for difficulties linked with illness, and to form and sustain bonds with others. However, this awareness has also been linked to depressed mood, lower self-esteem, and a diminished sense of well-being. In this article, we review the evidence and suggest that the effect of awareness on well-being may be mitigated by the meaning clients assign to their illness and whether it disrupts their life story. Evidence linking clients' internalized, stigmatizing beliefs about illness with demoralization is presented, and clinical implications are discussed.

Dasymetric high resolution population distribution estimates for improved decision making, with a case study of sea-level rise vulnerability in Boca Raton, Florida

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ziegler, Hannes Moritz

Planners and managers often rely on coarse population distribution data from the census for addressing various social, economic, and environmental problems. In the analysis of physical vulnerabilities to sea-level rise, census units such as blocks or block groups are coarse relative to the required decision-making application. This study explores the benefits offered from integrating image classification and dasymetric mapping at the household level to provide detailed small area population estimates at the scale of residential buildings. In a case study of Boca Raton, FL, a sea-level rise inundation grid based on mapping methods by NOAA is overlaid on the highly detailed population distribution data to identify vulnerable residences and estimate population displacement. The enhanced spatial detail offered through this method has the potential to better guide targeted strategies for future development, mitigation, and adaptation efforts.

Environmental Decision Making on Acid Mine Drainage Issues in South Africa: An Argument for the Precautionary Principle.

PubMed

Morodi, T J; Mpofu, Charles

2017-06-28

This paper examines the issue of acid mine drainage in South Africa and environmental decision making processes that could be taken to mitigate the problem in the context of both conventional risk assessment and the precautionary principle. It is argued that conventional risk assessment protects the status quo and hence cannot be entirely relied upon as an effective tool to resolve environmental problems in the context of South Africa, a developing country with complex environmental health concerns. The complexity of the environmental issues is discussed from historical and political perspectives. An argument is subsequently made that the precautionary principle is an alternative tool, and its adoption can be used to empower local communities. This work, therefore, adds to new knowledge by problematising conventional risk assessment and proposing the framing of the acid mine drainage issues in a complex and contextual scenario of a developing country-South Africa.

Improving Decision-Making Activities for Meningitis and Malaria

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ceccato, Pietro; Trzaska, Sylwia; Garcia-Pando, Carlos Perez; Kalashnikova, Olga; del Corral, John; Cousin, Remi; Blumenthal, M. Benno; Bell, Michael; Connor, Stephen J.; Thomson, Madeleine C.

2013-01-01

Public health professionals are increasingly concerned about the potential impact that climate variability and change can have on infectious disease. The International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) is developing new products to increase the public health community's capacity to understand, use and demand the appropriate climate data and climate information to mitigate the public health impacts of climate on infectious disease, in particular meningitis and malaria. In this paper, we present the new and improved products that have been developed for: (i) estimating dust aerosol for forecasting risks of meningitis and (ii) for monitoring temperature and rainfall and integrating them into a vectorial capacity model for forecasting risks of malaria epidemics. We also present how the products have been integrated into a knowledge system (IRI Data Library Map Room, SERVIR) to support the use of climate and environmental information in climate-sensitive health decision-making.

Learning the wrong lessons? Science and fisheries management in the Chesapeake Bay blue crab fishery.

PubMed

Beem, Betsi

2012-05-01

This paper argues that information produced and then taken up for policy decision making is a function of a complex interplay within the scientific community and between scientists and the broader policy network who are all grappling with issues in a complex environment with a high degree of scientific uncertainty. The dynamics of forming and re-forming the scientific community are shaped by political processes, as are the directions and questions scientists attend to in their roles as policy advisors. Three factors: 1) social construction of scientific communities, 2) the indeterminacy of science, and 3) demands by policy makers to have concrete information for decision making; are intertwined in the production and dissemination of information that may serve as the basis for policy learning. Through this process, however, what gets learned may not be what is needed to mitigate the problem, be complete in terms of addressing multiple causations, or be correct.

Dynamic Resource Allocation in Disaster Response: Tradeoffs in Wildfire Suppression

PubMed Central

Petrovic, Nada; Alderson, David L.; Carlson, Jean M.

2012-01-01

Challenges associated with the allocation of limited resources to mitigate the impact of natural disasters inspire fundamentally new theoretical questions for dynamic decision making in coupled human and natural systems. Wildfires are one of several types of disaster phenomena, including oil spills and disease epidemics, where (1) the disaster evolves on the same timescale as the response effort, and (2) delays in response can lead to increased disaster severity and thus greater demand for resources. We introduce a minimal stochastic process to represent wildfire progression that nonetheless accurately captures the heavy tailed statistical distribution of fire sizes observed in nature. We then couple this model for fire spread to a series of response models that isolate fundamental tradeoffs both in the strength and timing of response and also in division of limited resources across multiple competing suppression efforts. Using this framework, we compute optimal strategies for decision making scenarios that arise in fire response policy. PMID:22514605

Selection of climate policies under the uncertainties in the Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drouet, L.; Bosetti, V.; Tavoni, M.

2015-10-01

Strategies for dealing with climate change must incorporate and quantify all the relevant uncertainties, and be designed to manage the resulting risks. Here we employ the best available knowledge so far, summarized by the three working groups of the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5; refs , , ), to quantify the uncertainty of mitigation costs, climate change dynamics, and economic damage for alternative carbon budgets. We rank climate policies according to different decision-making criteria concerning uncertainty, risk aversion and intertemporal preferences. Our findings show that preferences over uncertainties are as important as the choice of the widely discussed time discount factor. Climate policies consistent with limiting warming to 2 °C above preindustrial levels are compatible with a subset of decision-making criteria and some model parametrizations, but not with the commonly adopted expected utility framework.

Managing Disease Risks from Trade: Strategic Behavior with Many Choices and Price Effects.

PubMed

Chitchumnong, Piyayut; Horan, Richard D

2018-03-16

An individual's infectious disease risks, and hence the individual's incentives for risk mitigation, may be influenced by others' risk management choices. If so, then there will be strategic interactions among individuals, whereby each makes his or her own risk management decisions based, at least in part, on the expected decisions of others. Prior work has shown that multiple equilibria could arise in this setting, with one equilibrium being a coordination failure in which individuals make too few investments in protection. However, these results are largely based on simplified models involving a single management choice and fixed prices that may influence risk management incentives. Relaxing these assumptions, we find strategic interactions influence, and are influenced by, choices involving multiple management options and market price effects. In particular, we find these features can reduce or eliminate concerns about multiple equilibria and coordination failure. This has important policy implications relative to simpler models.

A Case Study in Ethical Decision Making Regarding Remote Mitigation of Botnets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dittrich, David; Leder, Felix; Werner, Tillmann

It is becoming more common for researchers to find themselves in a position of being able to take over control of a malicious botnet. If this happens, should they use this knowledge to clean up all the infected hosts? How would this affect not only the owners and operators of the zombie computers, but also other researchers, law enforcement agents serving justice, or even the criminals themselves? What dire circumstances would change the calculus about what is or is not appropriate action to take? We review two case studies of long-lived malicious botnets that present serious challenges to researchers and responders and use them to illuminate many ethical issues regarding aggressive mitigation. We make no judgments about the questions raised, instead laying out the pros and cons of possible choices and allowing workshop attendees to consider how and where they would draw lines. By this, we hope to expose where there is clear community consensus as well as where controversy or uncertainty exists.

The effectiveness of health impact assessment in influencing decision-making in Australia and New Zealand 2005–2009

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Health Impact Assessment (HIA) involves assessing how proposals may alter the determinants of health prior to implementation and recommends changes to enhance positive and mitigate negative impacts. HIAs growing use needs to be supported by a strong evidence base, both to validate the value of its application and to make its application more robust. We have carried out the first systematic empirical study of the influence of HIA on decision-making and implementation of proposals in Australia and New Zealand. This paper focuses on identifying whether and how HIAs changed decision-making and implementation and impacts that participants report following involvement in HIAs. Methods We used a two-step process first surveying 55 HIAs followed by 11 in-depth case studies. Data gathering methods included questionnaires with follow-up interview, semi-structured interviews and document collation. We carried out deductive and inductive qualitative content analyses of interview transcripts and documents as well as simple descriptive statistics. Results We found that most HIAs are effective in some way. HIAs are often directly effective in changing, influencing, broadening areas considered and in some cases having immediate impact on decisions. Even when HIAs are reported to have no direct effect on a decision they are often still effective in influencing decision-making processes and the stakeholders involved in them. HIA participants identify changes in relationships, improved understanding of the determinants of health and positive working relationships as major and sustainable impacts of their involvement. Conclusions This study clearly demonstrates direct and indirect effectiveness of HIA influencing decision making in Australia and New Zealand. We recommend that public health leaders and policy makers should be confident in promoting the use of HIA and investing in building capacity to undertake high quality HIAs. New findings about the value HIA stakeholders put on indirect impacts such as learning and relationship building suggest HIA has a role both as a technical tool that makes predictions of potential impacts of a policy, program or project and as a mechanism for developing relationships with and influencing other sectors. Accordingly when evaluating the effectiveness of HIAs we need to look beyond the direct impacts on decisions. PMID:24341545

A multicriteria-based methodology for site prioritisation in sediment management.

PubMed

Alvarez-Guerra, Manuel; Viguri, Javier R; Voulvoulis, Nikolaos

2009-08-01

Decision-making for sediment management is a complex task that incorporates the selections of areas for remediation and the assessment of options for any mitigation required. The application of Multicriteria Analysis (MCA) to rank different areas, according to their need for sediment management, provides a great opportunity for prioritisation, a first step in an integrated methodology that finally aims to assess and select suitable alternatives for managing the identified priority sites. This paper develops a methodology that starts with the delimitation of management units within areas of study, followed by the application of MCA methods that allows ranking of these management units, according to their need for remediation. This proposed process considers not only scientific evidence on sediment quality, but also other relevant aspects such as social and economic criteria associated with such decisions. This methodology is illustrated with its application to the case study area of the Bay of Santander, in northern Spain, highlighting some of the implications of utilising different MCA methods in the process. It also uses site-specific data to assess the subjectivity in the decision-making process, mainly reflected through the assignment of the criteria weights and uncertainties in the criteria scores. Analysis of the sensitivity of the results to these factors is used as a way to assess the stability and robustness of the ranking as a first step of the sediment management decision-making process.

A web-based tool for ranking landslide mitigation measures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lacasse, S.; Vaciago, G.; Choi, Y. J.; Kalsnes, B.

2012-04-01

As part of the research done in the European project SafeLand "Living with landslide risk in Europe: Assessment, effects of global change, and risk management strategies", a compendium of structural and non-structural mitigation measures for different landslide types in Europe was prepared, and the measures were assembled into a web-based "toolbox". Emphasis was placed on providing a rational and flexible framework applicable to existing and future mitigation measures. The purpose of web-based toolbox is to assist decision-making and to guide the user in the choice of the most appropriate mitigation measures. The mitigation measures were classified into three categories, describing whether the mitigation measures addressed the landslide hazard, the vulnerability or the elements at risk themselves. The measures considered include structural measures reducing hazard and non-structural mitigation measures, reducing either the hazard or the consequences (or vulnerability and exposure of elements at risk). The structural measures include surface protection and control of surface erosion; measures modifying the slope geometry and/or mass distribution; measures modifying surface water regime - surface drainage; measures mo¬difying groundwater regime - deep drainage; measured modifying the mechanical charac¬teristics of unstable mass; transfer of loads to more competent strata; retaining structures (to modify slope geometry and/or to transfer stress to compe¬tent layer); deviating the path of landslide debris; dissipating the energy of debris flows; and arresting and containing landslide debris or rock fall. The non-structural mitigation measures, reducing either the hazard or the consequences: early warning systems; restricting or discouraging construction activities; increasing resistance or coping capacity of elements at risk; relocation of elements at risk; sharing of risk through insurance. The measures are described in the toolbox with fact sheets providing a brief description, guidance on design, schematic details, practical examples and references for each mitigation measure. Each of the measures was given a score on its ability and applicability for different types of landslides and boundary conditions, and a decision support matrix was established. The web-based toolbox organizes the information in the compendium and provides an algorithm to rank the measures on the basis of the decision support matrix, and on the basis of the risk level estimated at the site. The toolbox includes a description of the case under study and offers a simplified option for estimating the hazard and risk levels of the slide at hand. The user selects the mitigation measures to be included in the assessment. The toolbox then ranks, with built-in assessment factors and weights and/or with user-defined ranking values and criteria, the mitigation measures included in the analysis. The toolbox includes data management, e.g. saving data half-way in an analysis, returning to an earlier case, looking up prepared examples or looking up information on mitigation measures. The toolbox also generates a report and has user-forum and help features. The presentation will give an overview of the mitigation measures considered and examples of the use of the toolbox, and will take the attendees through the application of the toolbox.

A simulation-optimization-based decision support tool for mitigating traffic congestion.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-12-01

"Traffic congestion has grown considerably in the United States over the past twenty years. In this paper, we develop : a robust decision support tool based on simulation optimization to evaluate and recommend congestion-mitigation : strategies to tr...

MARINE CORPS ASIA PACIFIC REALIGNMENT: DOD Should Resolve Capability Deficiencies and Infrastructure Risks and Revise Cost Estimates

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-04-01

environmental mitigation and the costs associated with it. In April 2015, the Navy released a draft environmental impact statement to the public that...economic analysis for decision making indicates that, as part of assessing the costs and benefits of alternatives, an economic analysis should include...Page 48 GAO-17-415 Marine Corps Asia-Pacific Realignment comprehensive estimates of the expected costs and benefits that are incident to achieving

Critique, Explore, Compare, and Adapt (CECA): A New Model for Command Decision Making

DTIC Science & Technology

2003-07-01

dans le contexte du C2. Comparativement à la boucle OODA, la boucle CECA présente l’avantage de jeter une lumière nouvelle sur la nature de la...these is the Cognitive Hierarchy, which was designed to describe the relationships between various kinds of data and understanding by commanders and...needed to design training, doctrine, and procedures to be consistent with natural human reasoning and enhance its strengths and mitigate its

The Alliance Decides the Mission? Multilateral Decision Making at the UN and NATO on Libya, 2010-2011

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-06-01

Bruce D. Jones, Shepard Forman, and Richard Gowan, 20-44, (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2010). 65 Steve Weber, “Shaping the Postwar Balance...because the United States provided strong counterbalancing leadership, it also enabled increased French- German cooperation, wherein French concerns of... German military power were somewhat mitigated by the U.S. promise of continued involvement.93 An investigation of a few key articles in the North

Using FRET for Drought Mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Osborne, H. D.; Palmer, C. K.; Hobbins, M.

2016-12-01

With the ongoing drought plaguing California and much of the Western United States, water agencies and the general public have a heightened need for short term forecasts of evapotranspiration. The National Weather Service's (NWS) Forecast Reference Evapotranspiration (FRET) product suite can fill this need. The FRET product suite uses the Penman - Monteith Reference Evapotranspiration (ETrc) equation for a short canopy (12 cm grasses), adopted by the Environmental Water Resources Institute of the American Society of Civil Engineers. FRET is calculated across the contiguous U.S. using temperatures, humidity, winds, and sky cover from Numerical Weather Prediction (NPW) models and adjusted by NWS forecasters with local expertise of terrain and weather patterns. The Weekly ETrc product is easily incorporated into drought-planning strategies, allowing water managers, the agricultural community, and the public to make better informed water-use decisions. FRET can assist with the decision making process for scheduling irrigation (e.g., farms, golf courses, vineyards) and timing of fertilizers. The California Department of Water Resources (CA DWR) also ingests the FRET into their soil moisture models, and uses FRET to assist in determining the reservoir releases for the Feather River. The United States Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) also uses FRET in determining reservoir releases and assessing water temperature along the Sacramento and American Rivers. FRET is now operational on the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD), permitting other agencies easy access to this nationwide data for all drought mitigation and planning purposes.

Integrating Safety Assessment Methods using the Risk Informed Safety Margins Characterization (RISMC) Approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Curtis Smith; Diego Mandelli

Safety is central to the design, licensing, operation, and economics of nuclear power plants (NPPs). As the current light water reactor (LWR) NPPs age beyond 60 years, there are possibilities for increased frequency of systems, structures, and components (SSC) degradations or failures that initiate safety significant events, reduce existing accident mitigation capabilities, or create new failure modes. Plant designers commonly “over-design” portions of NPPs and provide robustness in the form of redundant and diverse engineered safety features to ensure that, even in the case of well-beyond design basis scenarios, public health and safety will be protected with a very highmore » degree of assurance. This form of defense-in-depth is a reasoned response to uncertainties and is often referred to generically as “safety margin.” Historically, specific safety margin provisions have been formulated primarily based on engineering judgment backed by a set of conservative engineering calculations. The ability to better characterize and quantify safety margin is important to improved decision making about LWR design, operation, and plant life extension. A systematic approach to characterization of safety margins and the subsequent margin management options represents a vital input to the licensee and regulatory analysis and decision making that will be involved. In addition, as research and development (R&D) in the LWR Sustainability (LWRS) Program and other collaborative efforts yield new data, sensors, and improved scientific understanding of physical processes that govern the aging and degradation of plant SSCs needs and opportunities to better optimize plant safety and performance will become known. To support decision making related to economics, readability, and safety, the RISMC Pathway provides methods and tools that enable mitigation options known as margins management strategies. The purpose of the RISMC Pathway R&D is to support plant decisions for risk-informed margin management with the aim to improve economics, reliability, and sustain safety of current NPPs. As the lead Department of Energy (DOE) Laboratory for this Pathway, the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) is tasked with developing and deploying methods and tools that support the quantification and management of safety margin and uncertainty.« less

Assessing what to address in science communication.

PubMed

Bruine de Bruin, Wändi; Bostrom, Ann

2013-08-20

As members of a democratic society, individuals face complex decisions about whether to support climate change mitigation, vaccinations, genetically modified food, nanotechnology, geoengineering, and so on. To inform people's decisions and public debate, scientific experts at government agencies, nongovernmental organizations, and other organizations aim to provide understandable and scientifically accurate communication materials. Such communications aim to improve people's understanding of the decision-relevant issues, and if needed, promote behavior change. Unfortunately, existing communications sometimes fail when scientific experts lack information about what people need to know to make more informed decisions or what wording people use to describe relevant concepts. We provide an introduction for scientific experts about how to use mental models research with intended audience members to inform their communication efforts. Specifically, we describe how to conduct interviews to characterize people's decision-relevant beliefs or mental models of the topic under consideration, identify gaps and misconceptions in their knowledge, and reveal their preferred wording. We also describe methods for designing follow-up surveys with larger samples to examine the prevalence of beliefs as well as the relationships of beliefs with behaviors. Finally, we discuss how findings from these interviews and surveys can be used to design communications that effectively address gaps and misconceptions in people's mental models in wording that they understand. We present applications to different scientific domains, showing that this approach leads to communications that improve recipients' understanding and ability to make informed decisions.

PRA and Conceptual Design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DeMott, Diana; Fuqua, Bryan; Wilson, Paul

2013-01-01

Once a project obtains approval, decision makers have to consider a variety of alternative paths for completing the project and meeting the project objectives. How decisions are made involves a variety of elements including: cost, experience, current technology, ideologies, politics, future needs and desires, capabilities, manpower, timing, available information, and for many ventures management needs to assess the elements of risk versus reward. The use of high level Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) Models during conceptual design phases provides management with additional information during the decision making process regarding the risk potential for proposed operations and design prototypes. The methodology can be used as a tool to: 1) allow trade studies to compare alternatives based on risk, 2) determine which elements (equipment, process or operational parameters) drives the risk, and 3) provide information to mitigate or eliminate risks early in the conceptual design to lower costs. Creating system models using conceptual design proposals and generic key systems based on what is known today can provide an understanding of the magnitudes of proposed systems and operational risks and facilitates trade study comparisons early in the decision making process. Identifying the "best" way to achieve the desired results is difficult, and generally occurs based on limited information. PRA provides a tool for decision makers to explore how some decisions will affect risk before the project is committed to that path, which can ultimately save time and money.

Fuzzy inference game approach to uncertainty in business decisions and market competitions.

PubMed

Oderanti, Festus Oluseyi

2013-01-01

The increasing challenges and complexity of business environments are making business decisions and operations more difficult for entrepreneurs to predict the outcomes of these processes. Therefore, we developed a decision support scheme that could be used and adapted to various business decision processes. These involve decisions that are made under uncertain situations such as business competition in the market or wage negotiation within a firm. The scheme uses game strategies and fuzzy inference concepts to effectively grasp the variables in these uncertain situations. The games are played between human and fuzzy players. The accuracy of the fuzzy rule base and the game strategies help to mitigate the adverse effects that a business may suffer from these uncertain factors. We also introduced learning which enables the fuzzy player to adapt over time. We tested this scheme in different scenarios and discover that it could be an invaluable tool in the hand of entrepreneurs that are operating under uncertain and competitive business environments.

Version 3 of the historical-clinical-risk management-20 (HCR-20V3): relevance to violence risk assessment and management in forensic conditional release contexts.

PubMed

Douglas, Kevin S

2014-09-01

The conditional release of insanity acquittees requires decisions both about community risk level and the contextual factors that may mitigate or aggravate risk. This article discusses the potential role of the newly revised Historical-Clinical-Risk Management-20 (HCR-20, Version 3) within the conditional release context. A brief review of the structured professional judgment (SPJ) approach to violence risk assessment and management is provided. Version 2 of the HCR-20, which has been broadly adopted and evaluated, is briefly described. New features of Version 3 of the HCR-20 with particular relevance to conditional release decision-making are reviewed, including: item indicators; ratings of the relevance of risk factors to an individual's violence; risk formulation; scenario planning; and risk management planning. Version 3 of the HCR-20 includes a number of features that should assist evaluators and decision-makers to determine risk level, as well as to anticipate and specify community conditions and contexts that may mitigate or aggravate risk. Research on the HCR-20 Version 3 using approximately 800 participants across three settings (forensic psychiatric, civil psychiatric, correctional) and eight countries is reviewed. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Effects of Information Visualization on Older Adults’ Decision-Making Performance in a Medicare Plan Selection Task: A Comparative Usability Study

PubMed Central

Price, Margaux M; Crumley-Branyon, Jessica J; Leidheiser, William R

2016-01-01

Background Technology gains have improved tools for evaluating complex tasks by providing environmental supports (ES) that increase ease of use and improve performance outcomes through the use of information visualizations (info-vis). Complex info-vis emphasize the need to understand individual differences in abilities of target users, the key cognitive abilities needed to execute a decision task, and the graphical elements that can serve as the most effective ES. Older adults may be one such target user group that would benefit from increased ES to mitigate specific declines in cognitive abilities. For example, choosing a prescription drug plan is a necessary and complex task that can impact quality of life if the wrong choice is made. The decision to enroll in one plan over another can involve comparing over 15 plans across many categories. Within this context, the large amount of complex information and reduced working memory capacity puts older adults’ decision making at a disadvantage. An intentionally designed ES, such as an info-vis that reduces working memory demand, may assist older adults in making the most effective decision among many options. Objective The objective of this study is to examine whether the use of an info-vis can lower working memory demands and positively affect complex decision-making performance of older adults in the context of choosing a Medicare prescription drug plan. Methods Participants performed a computerized decision-making task in the context of finding the best health care plan. Data included quantitative decision-making performance indicators and surveys examining previous history with purchasing insurance. Participants used a colored info-vis ES or a table (no ES) to perform the decision task. Task difficulty was manipulated by increasing the number of selection criteria used to make an accurate decision. A repeated measures analysis was performed to examine differences between the two table designs. Results Twenty-three older adults between the ages of 66 and 80 completed the study. There was a main effect for accuracy such that older adults made more accurate decisions in the color info-vis condition than the table condition. In the low difficulty condition, participants were more successful at choosing the correct answer when the question was about the gap coverage attribute in the info-vis condition. Participants also made significantly faster decisions in the info-vis condition than in the table condition. Conclusions Reducing the working memory demand of the task through the use of an ES can improve decision accuracy, especially when selection criteria is only focused on a single attribute of the insurance plan. PMID:27251110

Risk management for the Space Exploration Initiative

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Buchbinder, Ben

1993-01-01

Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a quantitative engineering process that provides the analytic structure and decision-making framework for total programmatic risk management. Ideally, it is initiated in the conceptual design phase and used throughout the program life cycle. Although PRA was developed for assessment of safety, reliability, and availability risk, it has far greater application. Throughout the design phase, PRA can guide trade-off studies among system performance, safety, reliability, cost, and schedule. These studies are based on the assessment of the risk of meeting each parameter goal, with full consideration of the uncertainties. Quantitative trade-off studies are essential, but without full identification, propagation, and display of uncertainties, poor decisions may result. PRA also can focus attention on risk drivers in situations where risk is too high. For example, if safety risk is unacceptable, the PRA prioritizes the risk contributors to guide the use of resources for risk mitigation. PRA is used in the Space Exploration Initiative (SEI) Program. To meet the stringent requirements of the SEI mission, within strict budgetary constraints, the PRA structure supports informed and traceable decision-making. This paper briefly describes the SEI PRA process.

Under What Circumstances Do Wood Products from Native Forests Benefit Climate Change Mitigation?

PubMed

Keith, Heather; Lindenmayer, David; Macintosh, Andrew; Mackey, Brendan

2015-01-01

Climate change mitigation benefits from the land sector are not being fully realised because of uncertainty and controversy about the role of native forest management. The dominant policy view, as stated in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report, is that sustainable forest harvesting yielding wood products, generates the largest mitigation benefit. We demonstrate that changing native forest management from commercial harvesting to conservation can make an important contribution to mitigation. Conservation of native forests results in an immediate and substantial reduction in net emissions relative to a reference case of commercial harvesting. We calibrated models to simulate scenarios of native forest management for two Australian case studies: mixed-eucalypt in New South Wales and Mountain Ash in Victoria. Carbon stocks in the harvested forest included forest biomass, wood and paper products, waste in landfill, and bioenergy that substituted for fossil fuel energy. The conservation forest included forest biomass, and subtracted stocks for the foregone products that were substituted by non-wood products or plantation products. Total carbon stocks were lower in harvested forest than in conservation forest in both case studies over the 100-year simulation period. We tested a range of potential parameter values reported in the literature: none could increase the combined carbon stock in products, slash, landfill and substitution sufficiently to exceed the increase in carbon stock due to changing management of native forest to conservation. The key parameters determining carbon stock change under different forest management scenarios are those affecting accumulation of carbon in forest biomass, rather than parameters affecting transfers among wood products. This analysis helps prioritise mitigation activities to focus on maximising forest biomass. International forest-related policies, including negotiations under the UNFCCC, have failed to recognize fully the mitigation value of native forest conservation. Our analyses provide evidence for decision-making about the circumstances under which forest management provides mitigation benefits.

Under What Circumstances Do Wood Products from Native Forests Benefit Climate Change Mitigation?

PubMed Central

Keith, Heather; Lindenmayer, David; Macintosh, Andrew; Mackey, Brendan

2015-01-01

Climate change mitigation benefits from the land sector are not being fully realised because of uncertainty and controversy about the role of native forest management. The dominant policy view, as stated in the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report, is that sustainable forest harvesting yielding wood products, generates the largest mitigation benefit. We demonstrate that changing native forest management from commercial harvesting to conservation can make an important contribution to mitigation. Conservation of native forests results in an immediate and substantial reduction in net emissions relative to a reference case of commercial harvesting. We calibrated models to simulate scenarios of native forest management for two Australian case studies: mixed-eucalypt in New South Wales and Mountain Ash in Victoria. Carbon stocks in the harvested forest included forest biomass, wood and paper products, waste in landfill, and bioenergy that substituted for fossil fuel energy. The conservation forest included forest biomass, and subtracted stocks for the foregone products that were substituted by non-wood products or plantation products. Total carbon stocks were lower in harvested forest than in conservation forest in both case studies over the 100-year simulation period. We tested a range of potential parameter values reported in the literature: none could increase the combined carbon stock in products, slash, landfill and substitution sufficiently to exceed the increase in carbon stock due to changing management of native forest to conservation. The key parameters determining carbon stock change under different forest management scenarios are those affecting accumulation of carbon in forest biomass, rather than parameters affecting transfers among wood products. This analysis helps prioritise mitigation activities to focus on maximising forest biomass. International forest-related policies, including negotiations under the UNFCCC, have failed to recognize fully the mitigation value of native forest conservation. Our analyses provide evidence for decision-making about the circumstances under which forest management provides mitigation benefits. PMID:26436916

Dust Storm Feature Identification and Tracking from 4D Simulation Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, M.; Yang, C. P.

2016-12-01

Dust storms cause significant damage to health, property and the environment worldwide every year. To help mitigate the damage, dust forecasting models simulate and predict upcoming dust events, providing valuable information to scientists, decision makers, and the public. Normally, the model simulations are conducted in four-dimensions (i.e., latitude, longitude, elevation and time) and represent three-dimensional (3D), spatial heterogeneous features of the storm and its evolution over space and time. This research investigates and proposes an automatic multi-threshold, region-growing based identification algorithm to identify critical dust storm features, and track the evolution process of dust storm events through space and time. In addition, a spatiotemporal data model is proposed, which can support the characterization and representation of dust storm events and their dynamic patterns. Quantitative and qualitative evaluations for the algorithm are conducted to test the sensitivity, and capability of identify and track dust storm events. This study has the potential to assist a better early warning system for decision-makers and the public, thus making hazard mitigation plans more effective.

Integrating environmental monitoring with cumulative effects management and decision making.

PubMed

Cronmiller, Joshua G; Noble, Bram F

2018-05-01

Cumulative effects (CE) monitoring is foundational to emerging regional and watershed CE management frameworks, yet monitoring is often poorly integrated with CE management and decision-making processes. The challenges are largely institutional and organizational, more so than scientific or technical. Calls for improved integration of monitoring with CE management and decision making are not new, but there has been limited research on how best to integrate environmental monitoring programs to ensure credible CE science and to deliver results that respond to the more immediate questions and needs of regulatory decision makers. This paper examines options for the integration of environmental monitoring with CE frameworks. Based on semistructured interviews with practitioners, regulators, and other experts in the Lower Athabasca, Alberta, Canada, 3 approaches to monitoring system design are presented. First, a distributed monitoring system, reflecting the current approach in the Lower Athabasca, where monitoring is delegated to different external programs and organizations; second, a 1-window system in which monitoring is undertaken by a single, in-house agency for the purpose of informing management and regulatory decision making; third, an independent system driven primarily by CE science and understanding causal relationships, with knowledge adopted for decision support where relevant to specific management questions. The strengths and limitations of each approach are presented. A hybrid approach may be optimal-an independent, nongovernment, 1-window model for CE science, monitoring, and information delivery-capitalizing on the strengths of distributed, 1-window, and independent monitoring systems while mitigating their weaknesses. If governments are committed to solving CE problems, they must invest in the long-term science needed to do so; at the same time, if science-based monitoring programs are to be sustainable over the long term, they must be responsive to the more immediate, often shorter term needs and CE information requirements of decision makers. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2018;14:407-417. © 2018 SETAC. © 2018 SETAC.

Blunted insula activation reflects increased risk and reward seeking as an interaction of testosterone administration and the MAOA polymorphism.

PubMed

Wagels, Lisa; Votinov, Mikhail; Radke, Sina; Clemens, Benjamin; Montag, Christian; Jung, Sonja; Habel, Ute

2017-09-01

Testosterone, a male sex hormone, has been suggested to partly explain mixed findings in males and females when investigating behavioral tendencies associated with the MAOA polymorphism. Prior studies indicated that the MAOA polymorphism represents a vulnerability factor for financial risk-taking and harm avoidance and that testosterone increases human risk-taking. We therefore assumed an interactive influence of the MAOA polymorphism and testosterone application on decision making and corresponding neural correlates in a risk and reward context. Stratified for the MAOA polymorphism (S =short, L =long), 103 healthy males were assigned to a placebo or testosterone group (double blind, randomized) receiving a topical gel containing 50 mg testosterone. During a functional MRI scan, the participants performed a sequential decision making task. Our results indicate that testosterone and the MAOA polymorphism jointly influence sequential decision making. The MAOA-S variant was associated with less automatic harm avoidance as reflected in response times on safe decisions. Moreover, after testosterone administration, MAOA-S carriers were more risk-taking. Overall activity in the anterior cingulate cortex, anterior insula and inferior frontal gyrus increased with growing risk for losses. In the anterior insula, testosterone administration mitigated this effect solely in MAOA-S carriers. This might be a reflection of an improved coping during risk-reward conflicts subsequently modulating risky decision making. While the molecular basis is not well defined so far, our results support the assumption of testosterone as a modulatory factor for previously reported sex differences of behavioral associations with the MAOA-S variant. Hum Brain Mapp 38:4574-4593, 2017. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Addressing health literacy in patient decision aids

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Effective use of a patient decision aid (PtDA) can be affected by the user’s health literacy and the PtDA’s characteristics. Systematic reviews of the relevant literature can guide PtDA developers to attend to the health literacy needs of patients. The reviews reported here aimed to assess: 1. a) the effects of health literacy / numeracy on selected decision-making outcomes, and b) the effects of interventions designed to mitigate the influence of lower health literacy on decision-making outcomes, and 2. the extent to which existing PtDAs a) account for health literacy, and b) are tested in lower health literacy populations. Methods We reviewed literature for evidence relevant to these two aims. When high-quality systematic reviews existed, we summarized their evidence. When reviews were unavailable, we conducted our own systematic reviews. Results Aim 1: In an existing systematic review of PtDA trials, lower health literacy was associated with lower patient health knowledge (14 of 16 eligible studies). Fourteen studies reported practical design strategies to improve knowledge for lower health literacy patients. In our own systematic review, no studies reported on values clarity per se, but in 2 lower health literacy was related to higher decisional uncertainty and regret. Lower health literacy was associated with less desire for involvement in 3 studies, less question-asking in 2, and less patient-centered communication in 4 studies; its effects on other measures of patient involvement were mixed. Only one study assessed the effects of a health literacy intervention on outcomes; it showed that using video to improve the salience of health states reduced decisional uncertainty. Aim 2: In our review of 97 trials, only 3 PtDAs overtly addressed the needs of lower health literacy users. In 90% of trials, user health literacy and readability of the PtDA were not reported. However, increases in knowledge and informed choice were reported in those studies in which health literacy needs were addressed. Conclusion Lower health literacy affects key decision-making outcomes, but few existing PtDAs have addressed the needs of lower health literacy users. The specific effects of PtDAs designed to mitigate the influence of low health literacy are unknown. More attention to the needs of patients with lower health literacy is indicated, to ensure that PtDAs are appropriate for lower as well as higher health literacy patients. PMID:24624970

Updated preparedness and response framework for influenza pandemics.

PubMed

Holloway, Rachel; Rasmussen, Sonja A; Zaza, Stephanie; Cox, Nancy J; Jernigan, Daniel B

2014-09-26

The complexities of planning for and responding to the emergence of novel influenza viruses emphasize the need for systematic frameworks to describe the progression of the event; weigh the risk of emergence and potential public health impact; evaluate transmissibility, antiviral resistance, and severity; and make decisions about interventions. On the basis of experience from recent influenza responses, CDC has updated its framework to describe influenza pandemic progression using six intervals (two prepandemic and four pandemic intervals) and eight domains. This updated framework can be used for influenza pandemic planning and serves as recommendations for risk assessment, decision-making, and action in the United States. The updated framework replaces the U.S. federal government stages from the 2006 implementation plan for the National Strategy for Pandemic Influenza (US Homeland Security Council. National strategy for pandemic influenza: implementation plan. Washington, DC: US Homeland Security Council; 2006. Available at http://www.flu.gov/planning-preparedness/federal/pandemic-influenza-implementation.pdf). The six intervals of the updated framework are as follows: 1) investigation of cases of novel influenza, 2) recognition of increased potential for ongoing transmission, 3) initiation of a pandemic wave, 4) acceleration of a pandemic wave, 5) deceleration of a pandemic wave, and 6) preparation for future pandemic waves. The following eight domains are used to organize response efforts within each interval: incident management, surveillance and epidemiology, laboratory, community mitigation, medical care and countermeasures, vaccine, risk communications, and state/local coordination. Compared with the previous U.S. government stages, this updated framework provides greater detail and clarity regarding the potential timing of key decisions and actions aimed at slowing the spread and mitigating the impact of an emerging pandemic. Use of this updated framework is anticipated to improve pandemic preparedness and response in the United States. Activities and decisions during a response are event-specific. These intervals serve as a reference for public health decision-making by federal, state, and local health authorities in the United States during an influenza pandemic and are not meant to be prescriptive or comprehensive. This framework incorporates information from newly developed tools for pandemic planning and response, including the Influenza Risk Assessment Tool and the Pandemic Severity Assessment Framework, and has been aligned with the pandemic phases restructured in 2013 by the World Health Organization.

Brazil's Samuel Dam: lessons for hydroelectric development policy and the environment in Amazonia.

PubMed

Fearnside, Philip M

2005-01-01

Brazil's Samuel Dam, which formed a 540-km2 reservoir in the state of Rondônia in 1988, provides lessons for development decisions throughout Amazonia and in other tropical areas. The decision to build the dam was heavily influenced by its role in the political strategies of key decision makers. Samuel illustrates both impacts and benefits of electricity supply and the dilemmas facing decision makers regarding the various options for planned electricity generation. Environmental costs included flooding forest and stimulating illegal logging activity throughout western Amazonia because of an exception opened for Samuel in Brazil's prohibition of export of raw logs. Samuel emitted substantially more greenhouse gases than would have been emitted by generating the same amount of electricity from oil. Contamination of fish in the reservoir resulted from methylation of mercury present in the soil. Social costs of the dam included resettlement of 238 families of farmers; impacts on indigenous people were indirect. Mitigating measures included faunal rescue and creation of a forest reserve. The lessons of Samuel include the need to consider a full range of alternatives prior to making decisions in practice and the importance of adhering to the logical sequence of decision making, where information is gathered and compared prior to the decision. It also shows the need to maintain flexibility when the costs and benefits of different alternatives change significantly over the course of the project's planning and execution, as occurred at Samuel.

Mission analysis report for single-shell tank leakage mitigation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cruse, J.M.

1994-09-01

This document provides an analysis of the leakage mitigation mission applicable to past and potential future leakage from the Hanford Site`s 149 single-shell high-level waste tanks. This mission is a part of the overall missions of the Westinghouse Hanford Company Tank Waste Remediation System division to remediate the tank waste in a safe and acceptable manner. Systems engineers principles are being applied to this effort. Mission analysis supports early decision making by clearly defining program objectives. This documents identifies the initial conditions and acceptable final conditions, defines the programmatic and physical interfaces and constraints, estimates the resources to carry outmore » the mission, and establishes measures of success. The results of the mission analysis provide a consistent basis for subsequent systems engineering work.« less

Land Cover Applications, Landscape Dynamics, and Global Change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tieszen, Larry L.

2007-01-01

The Land Cover Applications, Landscape Dynamics, and Global Change project at U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Center for Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) seeks to integrate remote sensing and simulation models to better understand and seek solutions to national and global issues. Modeling processes related to population impacts, natural resource management, climate change, invasive species, land use changes, energy development, and climate mitigation all pose significant scientific opportunities. The project activities use remotely sensed data to support spatial monitoring, provide sensitivity analyses across landscapes and large regions, and make the data and results available on the Internet with data access and distribution, decision support systems, and on-line modeling. Applications support sustainable natural resource use, carbon cycle science, biodiversity conservation, climate change mitigation, and robust simulation modeling approaches that evaluate ecosystem and landscape dynamics.

Review Article: Multi-criteria decision making for flood risk management: a survey of the current state-of-the-art

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Brito, M. M.; Evers, M.

2015-11-01

This paper provides a review of Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) applications to flood risk management, seeking to highlight trends and identify research gaps. Totally, 128 peer-reviewed papers published from 1995 to June 2015 were systematically analysed and classified into the following application areas: (1) ranking of alternatives for flood mitigation, (2) reservoir flood control, (3) susceptibility, (4) hazard, (5) vulnerability, (6) risk, (7) coping capacity, and (8) emergency management. Additionally, the articles were categorized based on the publication year, MCDM method, whether they were or were not carried out in a participatory process, and if uncertainty and sensitivity analysis were performed. Results showed that the number of flood MCDM publications has exponentially grown during this period, with over 82 % of all papers published since 2009. The Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) was the most popular technique, followed by Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution (TOPSIS), and Simple Additive Weighting (SAW). Although there is greater interest on MCDM, uncertainty analysis remains an issue and is seldom applied in flood-related studies. In addition, participation of multiple stakeholders has been generally fragmented, focusing on particular stages of the decision-making process, especially on the definition of criteria weights. Based on the survey, some suggestions for further investigation are provided.

Statistical Modeling of Daily Stream Temperature for Mitigating Fish Mortality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caldwell, R. J.; Rajagopalan, B.

2011-12-01

Water allocations in the Central Valley Project (CVP) of California require the consideration of short- and long-term needs of many socioeconomic factors including, but not limited to, agriculture, urban use, flood mitigation/control, and environmental concerns. The Endangered Species Act (ESA) ensures that the decision-making process provides sufficient water to limit the impact on protected species, such as salmon, in the Sacramento River Valley. Current decision support tools in the CVP were deemed inadequate by the National Marine Fisheries Service due to the limited temporal resolution of forecasts for monthly stream temperature and fish mortality. Finer scale temporal resolution is necessary to account for the stream temperature variations critical to salmon survival and reproduction. In addition, complementary, long-range tools are needed for monthly and seasonal management of water resources. We will present a Generalized Linear Model (GLM) framework of maximum daily stream temperatures and related attributes, such as: daily stream temperature range, exceedance/non-exceedance of critical threshold temperatures, and the number of hours of exceedance. A suite of predictors that impact stream temperatures are included in the models, including current and prior day values of streamflow, water temperatures of upstream releases from Shasta Dam, air temperature, and precipitation. Monthly models are developed for each stream temperature attribute at the Balls Ferry gauge, an EPA compliance point for meeting temperature criteria. The statistical framework is also coupled with seasonal climate forecasts using a stochastic weather generator to provide ensembles of stream temperature scenarios that can be used for seasonal scale water allocation planning and decisions. Short-term weather forecasts can also be used in the framework to provide near-term scenarios useful for making water release decisions on a daily basis. The framework can be easily translated to other locations and is intended to be a complement to the physical stream temperature modeling efforts that are underway on the river.

Physical, Ecological, and Societal Indicators for the National Climate Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kenney, Melissa A.; Chen, Robert; Baptista, Sandra R.; Quattrochi, Dale; O'Brien, Sheila

2011-01-01

The National Climate Assessment (NCA) is being conducted under the auspices of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), pursuant to the Global Change Research Act of 1990, Section 106, which requires a report to Congress every 4 years. The current NCA (http://globalchange.gov/what-we-do/assessment/) differs in multiple ways from previous U.S. climate assessment efforts, being: (1) more focused on supporting the Nation s activities in adaptation and mitigation and on evaluating the current state of scientific knowledge relative to climate impacts and trends; (2) a long-term, consistent process for evaluation of climate risks and opportunities and providing information to support decision-making processes within regions and sectors; and (3) establishing a permanent assessment capacity both inside and outside of the federal government. As a part of ongoing, long-term assessment activities, the NCA intends to develop an integrated strategic framework and deploy climate-relevant physical, ecological, and societal indicators. The NCA indicators framework is underdevelopment by the NCA Development and Advisory Committee Indicators Working Group and are envisioned as a relatively small number of policy-relevant integrated indicators designed to provide a consistent, objective, and transparent overview of major variations in climate impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation activities across sectors, regions, and timeframes. The potential questions that could be addressed by these indicators include: How do we know that there is a changing climate and how is it expected to change in the future? Are important climate impacts and opportunities occurring or predicted to occur in the future? Are we adapting successfully? What are the vulnerabilities and resiliencies given a changing climate? Are we preparing adequately for extreme events? It is not expected that the NCA societal indicators would be linked directly to a single decision or portfolio of decisions, but subsets of indicators, or the data supporting the indicator, might be used to inform decision-making processes such as the development and implementation of climate adaptation strategies in a particular sector or region.

Physical, Ecological, and Societal Indicators for the National Climate Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Brien, S.; Kenney, M.; Chen, R. S.; Baptista, S. R.; Quattrochi, D. A.

2011-12-01

The National Climate Assessment (NCA) is being conducted under the auspices of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), pursuant to the Global Change Research Act of 1990, Section 106, which requires a report to Congress every 4 years. The current NCA (http://globalchange.gov/what-we-do/assessment/) differs in multiple ways from previous U.S. climate assessment efforts, being: (1) more focused on supporting the Nation's activities in adaptation and mitigation and on evaluating the current state of scientific knowledge relative to climate impacts and trends; (2) a long-term, consistent process for evaluation of climate risks and opportunities and providing information to support decision-making processes within regions and sectors; and (3) establishing a permanent assessment capacity both inside and outside of the federal government. As a part of ongoing, long-term assessment activities, the NCA intends to develop an integrated strategic framework and deploy climate-relevant physical, ecological, and societal indicators. The NCA indicators framework is underdevelopment by the NCA Development and Advisory Committee Indicators Working Group and are envisioned as a relatively small number of policy-relevant integrated indicators designed to provide a consistent, objective, and transparent overview of major variations in climate impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation activities across sectors, regions, and timeframes. The potential questions that could be addressed by these indicators include: -How do we know that there is a changing climate and how is it expected to change in the future? -Are important climate impacts and opportunities occurring or predicted to occur in the future? -Are we adapting successfully? -What are the vulnerabilities and resiliencies given a changing climate? -Are we preparing adequately for extreme events? It is not expected that the NCA indicators would be linked directly to a single decision or portfolio of decisions, but subsets of indicators, or the data supporting the indicator, might be used to inform decision-making processes such as the development and implementation of climate adaptation strategies in a particular sector or region.

Integrated analysis for population estimation, management impact evaluation, and decision-making for a declining species

USGS Publications Warehouse

Crawford, Brian A.; Moore, Clinton; Norton, Terry M.; Maerz, John C.

2018-01-01

A challenge for making conservation decisions is predicting how wildlife populations respond to multiple, concurrent threats and potential management strategies, usually under substantial uncertainty. Integrated modeling approaches can improve estimation of demographic rates necessary for making predictions, even for rare or cryptic species with sparse data, but their use in management applications is limited. We developed integrated models for a population of diamondback terrapins (Malaclemys terrapin) impacted by road-associated threats to (i) jointly estimate demographic rates from two mark-recapture datasets, while directly estimating road mortality and the impact of management actions deployed during the study; and (ii) project the population using population viability analysis under simulated management strategies to inform decision-making. Without management, population extirpation was nearly certain due to demographic impacts of road mortality, predators, and vegetation. Installation of novel flashing signage increased survival of terrapins that crossed roads by 30%. Signage, along with small roadside barriers installed during the study, increased population persistence probability, but the population was still predicted to decline. Management strategies that included actions targeting multiple threats and demographic rates resulted in the highest persistence probability, and roadside barriers, which increased adult survival, were predicted to increase persistence more than other actions. Our results support earlier findings showing mitigation of multiple threats is likely required to increase the viability of declining populations. Our approach illustrates how integrated models may be adapted to use limited data efficiently, represent system complexity, evaluate impacts of threats and management actions, and provide decision-relevant information for conservation of at-risk populations.

Causes of catastrophic failure in complex systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, David A.

2010-08-01

Root causes of mission critical failures and major cost and schedule overruns in complex systems and programs are studied through the post-mortem analyses compiled for several examples, including the Hubble Space Telescope, the Challenger and Columbia Shuttle accidents, and the Three Mile Island nuclear power plant accident. The roles of organizational complexity, cognitive biases in decision making, the display of quantitative data, and cost and schedule pressure are all considered. Recommendations for mitigating the risk of similar failures in future programs are also provided.

Hydrogen Hazards Assessment Protocol (HHAP): Approach and Methodology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Woods, Stephen

2009-01-01

This viewgraph presentation reviews the approach and methodology to develop a assessment protocol for hydrogen hazards. Included in the presentation are the reasons to perform hazards assessment, the types of hazard assessments that exist, an analysis of hydrogen hazards, specific information about the Hydrogen Hazards Assessment Protocol (HHAP). The assessment is specifically tailored for hydrogen behavior. The end product of the assesment is a compilation of hazard, mitigations and associated factors to facilitate decision making and achieve the best practice.

A megaregion-scale approach for assessing the impacts of climate change and strategic management decisions in the Northeast United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosenzweig, B.; Vorosmarty, C. J.; Stewart, R. J.; Miara, A.; Lu, X.; Kicklighter, D. W.; Ehsani, N.; Wollheim, W. M.; Melillo, J. M.; Fekete, B. M.; Dilekli, N.; Duchin, F.; Gross, B.; Bhatt, V.

2014-12-01

'Megaregions' have been identified as an important new scale of geography for policy decision-making in the United States. These regions extend beyond local boundaries (ie. cities, states) to incorporate areas with linked economies, infrastructure and land-use patterns and shared climate and environmental systems, such as watersheds. The corridor of densely connected metropolitan areas and surrounding hinterlands along the U.S. east coast from Maine to Virginia is the archetype of this type of unit: The Northeast Megaregion. The Northeast faces a unique set of policy challenges including: projections of a wetter, more extreme climate, aging and underfunded infrastructure and economically distressed rural areas. Megaregion-scale policy efforts such as the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) and support for a regional food system have been recognized as strategic tools for climate change mitigation and adaptation, but decision-makers have limited information on the potential consequences of these strategies on the complex natural-human system of the Northeast, under various scenarios of global climate change. We have developed a Northeast Regional Earth System Model (NE-RESM) as a framework to provide this type of information. We integrate terrestrial ecosystem, hydrologic, energy system and economic models to investigate scenarios of paired regional socioeconomic pathways and global climate projections. Our initial results suggest that megaregion-scale strategic decisions in the Northeast may have important consequences for both local water management and global climate change mitigation.

Stimulating household flood risk mitigation investments through insurance and subsidies: an Agent-Based Modelling approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haer, Toon; Botzen, Wouter; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen

2015-04-01

In the period 1998-2009, floods triggered roughly 52 billion euro in insured economic losses making floods the most costly natural hazard in Europe. Climate change and socio/economic trends are expected to further aggrevate floods losses in many regions. Research shows that flood risk can be significantly reduced if households install protective measures, and that the implementation of such measures can be stimulated through flood insurance schemes and subsidies. However, the effectiveness of such incentives to stimulate implementation of loss-reducing measures greatly depends on the decision process of individuals and is hardly studied. In our study, we developed an Agent-Based Model that integrates flood damage models, insurance mechanisms, subsidies, and household behaviour models to assess the effectiveness of different economic tools on stimulating households to invest in loss-reducing measures. Since the effectiveness depends on the decision making process of individuals, the study compares different household decision models ranging from standard economic models, to economic models for decision making under risk, to more complex decision models integrating economic models and risk perceptions, opinion dynamics, and the influence of flood experience. The results show the effectiveness of incentives to stimulate investment in loss-reducing measures for different household behavior types, while assuming climate change scenarios. It shows how complex decision models can better reproduce observed real-world behaviour compared to traditional economic models. Furthermore, since flood events are included in the simulations, the results provide an analysis of the dynamics in insured and uninsured losses for households, the costs of reducing risk by implementing loss-reducing measures, the capacity of the insurance market, and the cost of government subsidies under different scenarios. The model has been applied to the City of Rotterdam in The Netherlands.

Water Footprint and Water Consumption for the Main Crops and Biofuels Produced in Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Y.; Tong, C.; Mansoor, K.; Carroll, S.

2011-12-01

The risk of CO2 leakage into shallow aquifers through various pathways such as faults and abandoned wells is a concern of CO2 geological sequestration. If a leak is detected in an aquifer system, a contingency plan is required to manage the CO2 storage and to protect the groundwater source. Among many remediation and mitigation strategies, the simplest is to stop CO2 leakage at a wellbore. Therefore, it is necessary to address whether and when the CO2 leaks should be sealed, and how much risk can be mitigated. In the presence of various uncertainties, including geological-structure uncertainty and parametric uncertainty, the risk of CO2 leakage into an aquifer needs to be assessed with probabilistic distributions of uncertain parameters. In this study, we developed an integrated model to simulate multiphase flow of CO2 and brine in a deep storage reservoir, through a leaky well at an uncertain location, and subsequently multicomponent reactive transport in a shallow aquifer. Each sub-model covers its domain-specific physics. Uncertainties of geological structure and parameters are considered together with decision variables (CO2 injection rate and mitigation time) for risk assessment of leakage-impacted aquifer volume. High-resolution and less-expensive reduced-order models (ROMs) of risk profiles are approximated as polynomial functions of decision variables and all uncertain parameters. These reduced-order models are then used in the place of computationally-expensive numerical models for future decision-making on if and when the leaky well is sealed. The tradeoff between CO2 storage capacity in the reservoir and the leakage-induced risk in the aquifer is evaluated. This work performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under contract DE-AC52-07NA27344.

Combination of uncertainty theories and decision-aiding methods for natural risk management in a context of imperfect information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tacnet, Jean-Marc; Dupouy, Guillaume; Carladous, Simon; Dezert, Jean; Batton-Hubert, Mireille

2017-04-01

In mountain areas, natural phenomena such as snow avalanches, debris-flows and rock-falls, put people and objects at risk with sometimes dramatic consequences. Risk is classically considered as a combination of hazard, the combination of the intensity and frequency of the phenomenon, and vulnerability which corresponds to the consequences of the phenomenon on exposed people and material assets. Risk management consists in identifying the risk level as well as choosing the best strategies for risk prevention, i.e. mitigation. In the context of natural phenomena in mountainous areas, technical and scientific knowledge is often lacking. Risk management decisions are therefore based on imperfect information. This information comes from more or less reliable sources ranging from historical data, expert assessments, numerical simulations etc. Finally, risk management decisions are the result of complex knowledge management and reasoning processes. Tracing the information and propagating information quality from data acquisition to decisions are therefore important steps in the decision-making process. One major goal today is therefore to assist decision-making while considering the availability, quality and reliability of information content and sources. A global integrated framework is proposed to improve the risk management process in a context of information imperfection provided by more or less reliable sources: uncertainty as well as imprecision, inconsistency and incompleteness are considered. Several methods are used and associated in an original way: sequential decision context description, development of specific multi-criteria decision-making methods, imperfection propagation in numerical modeling and information fusion. This framework not only assists in decision-making but also traces the process and evaluates the impact of information quality on decision-making. We focus and present two main developments. The first one relates to uncertainty and imprecision propagation in numerical modeling using both classical Monte-Carlo probabilistic approach and also so-called Hybrid approach using possibility theory. Second approach deals with new multi-criteria decision-making methods which consider information imperfection, source reliability, importance and conflict, using fuzzy sets as well as possibility and belief function theories. Implemented methods consider information imperfection propagation and information fusion in total aggregation methods such as AHP (Saaty, 1980) or partial aggregation methods such as the Electre outranking method (see Soft Electre Tri ) or decisions in certain but also risky or uncertain contexts (see new COWA-ER and FOWA-ER- Cautious and Fuzzy Ordered Weighted Averaging-Evidential Reasoning). For example, the ER-MCDA methodology considers expert assessment as a multi-criteria decision process based on imperfect information provided by more or less heterogeneous, reliable and conflicting sources: it mixes AHP, fuzzy sets theory, possibility theory and belief function theory using DSmT (Dezert-Smarandache Theory) framework which provides powerful fusion rules.

Mitigation of wildfire risk by homeowners

Treesearch

Hannah Brenkert; Patricia Champ; Nicholas Flores

2005-01-01

In-depth interviews conducted with homeowners in Larimer County's Wildland-Urban Interface revealed that homeowners face difficult decisions regarding the implementation of wildfire mitigation measures. Perceptions of wildfire mitigation options may be as important as perceptions of wildfire risk in determining likelihood of implementation. These mitigation...

Juror Decision-making in Death Penalty Sentencing when Presented with Defendant's History of Child Abuse or Neglect.

PubMed

Bell Holleran, Lisa L; Vaughan, Tyler J; Vandiver, Donna M

2016-11-01

Previous studies have found aggravating, mitigating, and null effects of defendant histories of abuse and neglect on punishment preferences in capital sentencing. Perceiving these defendants as more dangerous, jurors may be more likely to favor the death penalty when such evidence is presented. This is counter to the intuition that abuse or neglect reduces culpability, and therefore mitigates the severity of punishment. We investigated the effect of defendant childhood physical abuse, sexual abuse, or neglect on the probability of a prospective juror preferring the death penalty in an between-subject experimental design. Using vignettes and two large samples (students and jurors), defendant histories were found to mitigate the probability that the hypothetical defendant received the death penalty, with sexual abuse having the most salient effect. Further, the effects were conditioned by preference for the death penalty - larger mitigating effects were observed among individuals who favor the death penalty. These findings suggest that initial judgments of abuse and neglect are related to juror leniency, and further research on the interaction of jury instructions and defendant histories is needed. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

19 CFR 171.23 - Decisions not protestable.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

...) Payment of mitigated amount as accord and satisfaction. Payment of a mitigated amount in compliance with... act as an accord and satisfaction of the Government claim. Payment of a mitigated amount will never...

Evaluation of risk communication in a mammography patient decision aid.

PubMed

Klein, Krystal A; Watson, Lindsey; Ash, Joan S; Eden, Karen B

2016-07-01

We characterized patients' comprehension, memory, and impressions of risk communication messages in a patient decision aid (PtDA), Mammopad, and clarified perceived importance of numeric risk information in medical decision making. Participants were 75 women in their forties with average risk factors for breast cancer. We used mixed methods, comprising a risk estimation problem administered within a pretest-posttest design, and semi-structured qualitative interviews with a subsample of 21 women. Participants' positive predictive value estimates of screening mammography improved after using Mammopad. Although risk information was only briefly memorable, through content analysis, we identified themes describing why participants value quantitative risk information, and obstacles to understanding. We describe ways the most complicated graphic was incompletely comprehended. Comprehension of risk information following Mammopad use could be improved. Patients valued receiving numeric statistical information, particularly in pictograph format. Obstacles to understanding risk information, including potential for confusion between statistics, should be identified and mitigated in PtDA design. Using simple pictographs accompanied by text, PtDAs may enhance a shared decision-making discussion. PtDA designers and providers should be aware of benefits and limitations of graphical risk presentations. Incorporating comprehension checks could help identify and correct misapprehensions of graphically presented statistics. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of risk communication in a mammography patient decision aid

PubMed Central

Klein, Krystal A.; Watson, Lindsey; Ash, Joan S.; Eden, Karen B.

2016-01-01

Objectives We characterized patients’ comprehension, memory, and impressions of risk communication messages in a patient decision aid (PtDA), Mammopad, and clarified perceived importance of numeric risk information in medical decision making. Methods Participants were 75 women in their forties with average risk factors for breast cancer. We used mixed methods, comprising a risk estimation problem administered within a pretest–posttest design, and semi-structured qualitative interviews with a subsample of 21 women. Results Participants’ positive predictive value estimates of screening mammography improved after using Mammopad. Although risk information was only briefly memorable, through content analysis, we identified themes describing why participants value quantitative risk information, and obstacles to understanding. We describe ways the most complicated graphic was incompletely comprehended. Conclusions Comprehension of risk information following Mammopad use could be improved. Patients valued receiving numeric statistical information, particularly in pictograph format. Obstacles to understanding risk information, including potential for confusion between statistics, should be identified and mitigated in PtDA design. Practice implications Using simple pictographs accompanied by text, PtDAs may enhance a shared decision-making discussion. PtDA designers and providers should be aware of benefits and limitations of graphical risk presentations. Incorporating comprehension checks could help identify and correct misapprehensions of graphically presented statistics PMID:26965020

Uncertainty Categorization, Modeling, and Management for Regional Water Supply Planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fletcher, S.; Strzepek, K. M.; AlSaati, A.; Alhassan, A.

2016-12-01

Many water planners face increased pressure on water supply systems from growing demands, variability in supply and a changing climate. Short-term variation in water availability and demand; long-term uncertainty in climate, groundwater storage, and sectoral competition for water; and varying stakeholder perspectives on the impacts of water shortages make it difficult to assess the necessity of expensive infrastructure investments. We categorize these uncertainties on two dimensions: whether they are the result of stochastic variation or epistemic uncertainty, and whether the uncertainties can be described probabilistically or are deep uncertainties whose likelihood is unknown. We develop a decision framework that combines simulation for probabilistic uncertainty, sensitivity analysis for deep uncertainty and Bayesian decision analysis for uncertainties that are reduced over time with additional information. We apply this framework to two contrasting case studies - drought preparedness in Melbourne, Australia and fossil groundwater depletion in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia - to assess the impacts of different types of uncertainty on infrastructure decisions. Melbourne's water supply system relies on surface water, which is impacted by natural variation in rainfall, and a market-based system for managing water rights. Our results show that small, flexible investment increases can mitigate shortage risk considerably at reduced cost. Riyadh, by contrast, relies primarily on desalination for municipal use and fossil groundwater for agriculture, and a centralized planner makes allocation decisions. Poor regional groundwater measurement makes it difficult to know when groundwater pumping will become uneconomical, resulting in epistemic uncertainty. However, collecting more data can reduce the uncertainty, suggesting the need for different uncertainty modeling and management strategies in Riyadh than in Melbourne. We will categorize the two systems and propose appropriate decision making under uncertainty methods from the state of the art. We will compare the efficiency of alternative approaches to the two case studies. Finally, we will present a hybrid decision analytic tool to address the synthesis of uncertainties.

Organizational Culture and Safety

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Adams, Catherine A.

2003-01-01

'..only a fool perseveres in error.' Cicero. Humans will break the most advanced technological devices and override safety and security systems if they are given the latitude. Within the workplace, the operator may be just one of several factors in causing accidents or making risky decisions. Other variables considered for their involvement in the negative and often catastrophic outcomes include the organizational context and culture. Many organizations have constructed and implemented safety programs to be assimilated into their culture to assure employee commitment and understanding of the importance of everyday safety. The purpose of this paper is to examine literature on organizational safety cultures and programs that attempt to combat vulnerability, risk taking behavior and decisions and identify the role of training in attempting to mitigate unsafe acts.

Coordination of Individual and Organizational Planning for Natural Hazards (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krantz, D. H.

2013-12-01

Decision making consists of constructing or selecting a plan. This is true at many levels of decision making: individuals or households, small groups, larger organizations, and governments. In each case, plans are constructed or selected taking account of the decision maker's prioritized set of active goals and the decision maker's beliefs about the probability or the extent to which each goal will be attained through a given plan. Planning for mitigation of or response to natural hazards can be improved if the plans of the many decision makers at multiple levels are coordinated. Government planning should ideally be informed by knowledge about the plans of businesses and non-profit organizations as well as knowledge about individual, household, and neighborhood plans. Similarly, plans at the individual and organizational levels should be informed by knowledge of others' plans at the same and at higher and lower levels of aggregation. Coordination can be impaired by differences in goals, differences in beliefs about the instrumentality of plans toward given goals, and also by ignorance of others' goals and plans. Good coordination requires incentives that promote sharing of plans, horizontally and vertically, and that alleviate conflicts in goals and conflicts in beliefs that will inevitably surface once plans are shared. Thus, four different kinds of decision aids are needed to improve natural hazard planning: mechanisms that support horizontal dissemination of plans, mechanisms that support vertical dissemination, mechanisms for examining goal conflicts and reducing these through plans that take others' goals into account, and mechanisms for examining belief conflicts.

Get People Talking: Sharing Tsunami Science Beyond the Web

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ross, S.; Jones, L.; Miller, K.; Wilson, R. I.; Bahng, B.; Borrero, J. C.; Brosnan, D. M.; Burkett, E. R.; Bwarie, J.; Campbell, N. M.; Geist, E. L.; Johnson, L.; Kirby, S. H.; Knight, W. R.; Long, K.; Lynett, P. J.; Nicolsky, D.; Oglesby, D. D.; Barberopoulou, A.; Perry, S. C.; Plumlee, G. S.; Porter, K.; Real, C. R.; Ritchie, L.; Ryan, K. J.; Suleimani, E.; Thio, H. K.; Titov, V. V.; Wein, A. M.; Whitmore, P.; Wood, N. J.

2016-12-01

The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario, a collaborative product between the USGS, NOAA, the California Geological Survey, Cal OES and other agencies and institutions, modeled the potential implications of a plausible tsunami caused by a hypothetical magnitude 9.1 earthquake off the Alaskan Peninsula. A multi-disciplinary team of researchers and practitioners looked at what such an event could mean to the coastal residents, visitors, infrastructure, economy, and environment in California. The intended users were those responsible for making mitigation decisions before and those who need to make rapid decisions during future tsunamis. The Tsunami Scenario process was evaluated by the University of Colorado's Natural Hazards Center; it was the first time that a USGS scenario of that scale was formally and systematically evaluated by an external party. The scenario was published as a USGS Open-File Report (http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2013/1170/) and as a fact sheet. The report's website received over 1 million hits in the first year, demonstrating that the project received a great deal of attention. To make sure the information was accessible to the key users, we also held a series of regional workshops. These workshops brought together project scientists with emergency managers, maritime authorities, first responders, elected officials and staffers, the business sector, state agencies, local media, scientific partners, and special districts such as utilities. Each workshop had about 10 SAFRR project participants and an audience of about 40-100 potential users. The half-day workshops began with presentations on the scenario results and also included significant time for facilitated discussions to identify practical problems and propose solutions to mitigate the hazards. Two of the key lessons learned included: a) recognizing the value of having scenario developers personally present the scenario to user groups and b) stimulating dialogue among the practitioners to solve problems.

Human Factors Effecting Forensic Decision Making: Workplace Stress and Well-being.

PubMed

Jeanguenat, Amy M; Dror, Itiel E

2018-01-01

Over the past decade, there has been a growing openness about the importance of human factors in forensic work. However, most of it focused on cognitive bias, and neglected issues of workplace wellness and stress. Forensic scientists work in a dynamic environment that includes common workplace pressures such as workload volume, tight deadlines, lack of advancement, number of working hours, low salary, technology distractions, and fluctuating priorities. However, in addition, forensic scientists also encounter a number of industry-specific pressures, such as technique criticism, repeated exposure to crime scenes or horrific case details, access to funding, working in an adversarial legal system, and zero tolerance for "errors". Thus, stress is an important human factor to mitigate for overall error management, productivity and decision quality (not to mention the well-being of the examiners themselves). Techniques such as mindfulness can become powerful tools to enhance work and decision quality. © 2017 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

To protect or abandon: a participatory process on landslide risk mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scolobig, A.; Bayer, J.; Cascini, L.; Ferlisi, S.

2012-04-01

With escalating costs of landslide risk mitigation and relief, a challenge for local authorities is to develop landslide risk mitigation measures that are viewed as efficient, feasible and fair by the many stakeholders involved. Innovative measures and the participation of stakeholders in the decision making process are essential elements in developing effective strategies to deal with the ever-changing spatial and temporal patterns of landslide risk. A stakeholder-led policy process, however, can face many social and economic challenges. One of the most difficult is deciding between costly protection measures or relocating homes. Particularly in areas with high population density, protection works are often not built because of economic/environmental constraints or private interests of the local residents. At the same time it not always possible to relocate households even if the costs are deemed less than protecting them. These issues turned out to be crucial in a recent participatory process for selecting risk mitigation measures in the town of Nocera Inferiore, Southern Italy, which experienced a landslide in 2005 causing three fatalities. The paper reports on this process which was structured in a series of meetings with a group of selected residents and several parallel activities open to the public. The preparatory work included semi-structured interviews carried out with key local stakeholders and a public survey eliciting residents' views on landslide risk mitigation. After describing the background of the landslide risk management problem in Nocera Inferiore, the paper focuses on three packages of risk mitigation measures (each of them not exceeding a total cost of 7 million Euro, namely the available funds) and the key trade-offs that emerged during the meetings with the residents. The participants reached a unanimous consensus on fundamental priorities, i.e. the improvement of the warning system, the implementation of an integrated system of monitoring and territorial survey and the stabilization of the open slopes with naturalistic engineering works. Much more debate was devoted to the relocation of residents from the most endangered areas and/or the need to build passive structural works, especially on private properties. Notwithstanding the difficulties in reaching a shared "compromise solution" for risk mitigation, the results demonstrate the value of citizen participation in landslide risk mitigation decisions and highlight the role that participation can play in risk management more generally.

Tools to aid post-wildfire assessment and erosion-mitigation treatment decisions

Treesearch

Peter R. Robichaud; Louise E. Ashmun

2013-01-01

A considerable investment in post-fire research over the past decade has improved our understanding of wildfire effects on soil, hydrology, erosion and erosion-mitigation treatment effectiveness. Using this new knowledge, we have developed several tools to assist land managers with post-wildfire assessment and treatment decisions, such as prediction models, research...

7 CFR 1794.17 - Mitigation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 12 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Mitigation. 1794.17 Section 1794.17 Agriculture... § 1794.17 Mitigation. (a) General. In addition to complying with the requirements of 40 CFR 1502.14(f... (FONSI) and the Record of Decision (ROD). (b) Water and waste program. (1) Mitigation measures which...

7 CFR 1794.17 - Mitigation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 12 2014-01-01 2013-01-01 true Mitigation. 1794.17 Section 1794.17 Agriculture... § 1794.17 Mitigation. (a) General. In addition to complying with the requirements of 40 CFR 1502.14(f... (FONSI) and the Record of Decision (ROD). (b) Water and waste program. (1) Mitigation measures which...

7 CFR 1794.17 - Mitigation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 12 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Mitigation. 1794.17 Section 1794.17 Agriculture... § 1794.17 Mitigation. (a) General. In addition to complying with the requirements of 40 CFR 1502.14(f... (FONSI) and the Record of Decision (ROD). (b) Water and waste program. (1) Mitigation measures which...

7 CFR 1794.17 - Mitigation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 12 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Mitigation. 1794.17 Section 1794.17 Agriculture... § 1794.17 Mitigation. (a) General. In addition to complying with the requirements of 40 CFR 1502.14(f... (FONSI) and the Record of Decision (ROD). (b) Water and waste program. (1) Mitigation measures which...

Geoethics and decision science issues in Japan's disaster management system: case study in the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sugimoto, Megumi

2015-04-01

The March 11, 2011 Tohoku earthquake and its tsunami killed 18,508 people, including the missing (National Police Agency report as of April 2014) and raise the Level 7 accident at TEPCO's Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power station in Japan. The problems revealed can be viewed as due to a combination of risk-management, risk-communication, and geoethics issues. Japan's preparations for earthquakes and tsunamis are based on the magnitude of the anticipated earthquake for each region. The government organization coordinating the estimation of anticipated earthquakes is the "Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion" (HERP), which is under the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT). Japan's disaster mitigation system is depicted schematically as consisting of three layers: seismology, civil engineering, and disaster mitigation planning. This research explains students in geoscience should study geoethics as part of their education related Tohoku earthquake and the Level 7 accident at TEPCO's Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power station. Only when they become practicing professionals, they will be faced with real geoethical dilemmas. A crisis such as the 2011 earthquake, tsunami, and Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear accident, will force many geoscientists to suddenly confront previously unanticipated geoethics and risk-communication issues. One hopes that previous training will help them to make appropriate decisions under stress. We name it "decision science".

Data Mining for Understanding and Improving Decision-making Affecting Ground Delay Programs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kulkarni, Deepak; Wang, Yao; Sridhar, Banavar

2013-01-01

The continuous growth in the demand for air transportation results in an imbalance between airspace capacity and traffic demand. The airspace capacity of a region depends on the ability of the system to maintain safe separation between aircraft in the region. In addition to growing demand, the airspace capacity is severely limited by convective weather. During such conditions, traffic managers at the FAA's Air Traffic Control System Command Center (ATCSCC) and dispatchers at various Airlines' Operations Center (AOC) collaborate to mitigate the demand-capacity imbalance caused by weather. The end result is the implementation of a set of Traffic Flow Management (TFM) initiatives such as ground delay programs, reroute advisories, flow metering, and ground stops. Data Mining is the automated process of analyzing large sets of data and then extracting patterns in the data. Data mining tools are capable of predicting behaviors and future trends, allowing an organization to benefit from past experience in making knowledge-driven decisions.

Improving the decision-making process for nonprescription drugs: a framework for benefit-risk assessment.

PubMed

Brass, E P; Lofstedt, R; Renn, O

2011-12-01

Nonprescription drugs pose unique challenges to regulators. The fact that the barriers to access are lower for nonprescription drugs as compared with prescription drugs may permit additional consumers to obtain effective drugs. However, the use of these drugs by consumers in the absence of supervision by a health-care professional may result in unacceptable rates of misuse and suboptimal clinical outcomes. A value-tree method is proposed that defines important benefit and risk domains relevant to nonprescription drugs. This value tree can be used to comprehensively identify product-specific attributes in each domain and can also support formal benefit-risk assessment using a variety of tools. This is illustrated here, using a modification of the International Risk Governance Council (IRGC) framework, a flexible tool previously applied in a number of fields, which systematizes an approach to issue review, early alignment of stakeholders, evaluation, and risk mitigation/management. The proposed approach has the potential to provide structured, transparent tools for regulatory decision making for nonprescription drugs.

Implications of adopting a biodiversity-based vulnerability index versus a shoreline environmental sensitivity index on management and policy planning along coastal areas.

PubMed

Harik, G; Alameddine, I; Maroun, R; Rachid, G; Bruschi, D; Astiaso Garcia, D; El-Fadel, M

2017-02-01

In this study, a multi-criteria index was developed to assess anthropogenic stressors along the Mediterranean coastline. The index aimed at geo-locating pollution hotspots for informed decision making related to coastal zone management. The index was integrated in a Geographical Information System based geodatabase implemented at several pilot areas along the Northern (Italy and France), Eastern (Lebanon), and Southern (Tunisia) Mediterranean coastlines. The generated stressor maps were coupled with a biodiversity richness index and an environmental sensitivity index to produce vulnerability maps that can form the basis for prioritizing management and mitigation interventions towards the identification of pollution hotspots and the promotion of sustainable coastal zone management. The results identified significant differences between the two assessment methods, which can bias prioritization in decision making and policy planning depending on stakeholders' interests. The discrepancies emphasize the need for transparency and understanding of the underlying foundations behind vulnerability indices and mapping development. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

If You See Something, Say Something…More

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mann, M. E.; Peacock, K.

2015-12-01

Scientists have a collective ethical obligation to communicate the implications of their science and to communicate it as accurately and fully as possible. Nowhere is that obligation more profound than in areas of research, like climate change, where the stakes are so great, and where societal decision-making demands the most accurate assessments of risk. If scientists remain on the sidelines, they insure that others with an axe to grind will fill the void, game the process of risk assessment, and insure sub-optimal policy decision-making. But simple participation is not adequate either. Scientists, when they communicate climate change risk, must resist the temptation to downplay high-risk and high-cost scenarios in an effort simply to avoid criticism by contrarians. Otherwise, the net affect is the same, with bad faith actors achieving their goal of minimizing the emphasis placed on mitigation efforts in the policymaking process. We will discuss some examples including the critically important case of ice sheet collapse and sea level rise.

Cognitive Performance in Operational Environments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Russo, Michael; McGhee, James; Friedler, Edna; Thomas, Maria

2005-01-01

Optimal cognition during complex and sustained operations is a critical component for success in current and future military operations. "Cognitive Performance, Judgment, and Decision-making" (CPJD) is a newly organized U.S. Army Medical Research and Materiel Command research program focused on sustaining operational effectiveness of Future Force Warriors by developing paradigms through which militarily-relevant, higher-order cognitive performance, judgment, and decision-making can be assessed and sustained in individuals, small teams, and leaders of network-centric fighting units. CPJD evaluates the impact of stressors intrinsic to military operational environments (e.g., sleep deprivation, workload, fatigue, temperature extremes, altitude, environmental/physiological disruption) on military performance, evaluates noninvasive automated methods for monitoring and predicting cognitive performance, and investigates pharmaceutical strategies (e.g., stimulant countermeasures, hypnotics) to mitigate performance decrements. This manuscript describes the CPJD program, discusses the metrics utilized to relate militarily applied research findings to academic research, and discusses how the simulated combat capabilities of a synthetic battle laboratory may facilitate future cognitive performance research.

Conceptual model of a logical system processor of selection to electrical filters for correction of harmonics in low voltage lines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lastre, Arlys; Torriente, Ives; Méndez, Erik F.; Cordovés, Alexis

2017-06-01

In the present investigation, the authors propose a conceptual model for the analysis and the decision making of the corrective models to use in the mitigation of the harmonic distortion. The authors considered the setting of conventional models, and such adaptive models like the filters incorporation to networks neuronal artificial (RNA's) for the mitigating effect. In addition to the present work is a showing of the experimental model that learns by means of a flowchart denoting the need to use artificial intelligence skills for the exposition of the proposed model. The other aspect considered and analyzed are the adaptability and usage of the same, considering a local reference of the laws and lineaments of energy quality that demands the Department of Electricity and Energy Renewable (MEER) of Equator.

Research on the resilience of husbandry economy to snow disaster

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Shuang; Fang, Yiping

2017-04-01

Snow disaster always makes adverse influence on the pastoral economy in alpine area. Resilience theory could efficiently enhance the capacities of resisting disaster and mitigating loss of animal husbandry economy. In order to distinguish the weak parts of existed resilience system and strengthen the construction of disaster mitigating in the source of Changjiang-Yellow River, this paper has developed two methods of comprehensive index and relationship model to measure the resilience from 1980 to 2014. The comprehensive index method is based on the conceptual framework of resilience assessment. And relationship model is derived from the internal relationship between vulnerability and resilience. Through the index system of resilience, this paper also summarizes the mean influencing indicator to husbandry economy resilience. The results show:(1)From time dimension, the resilience of snow disaster in Changjiang-Yellow River is rising with fluctuations. Based on the rate, the changes could be divided into slow(1980-1996) and fast(1997-2014) growing phases. The disaster-mitigating capacity of livestock has been markedly improved; (2)From spatial dimension, the magnitude and frequency of snow disaster change weakly. But the gap of resilience in Changjiang-Yellow River has shrunk in 35 years and the resilience in source of Changjiang is distinctly better than Yellow River; (3)Among all the indicators, snow disaster plays a decisive role in the changes of resilience. The resisting capacity including infrastructure construction makes significant effects on resilience and the reducing measures consisted of income, education and agricultural finance could effectively regulate the level. Key words: husbandry economy; snow disaster; resilience; mitigation

Merging Energy Policy Decision Support, Education, and Communication: The 'World Energy' Simulation Role-Playing Game

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rooney-varga, J. N.; Franck, T.; Jones, A.; Sterman, J.; Sawin, E.

2013-12-01

To meet international goals for climate change mitigation and adaptation, as well as energy access and equity, there is an urgent need to explore and define energy policy paths forward. Despite this need, students, citizens, and decision-makers often hold deeply flawed mental models of the energy and climate systems. Here we describe a simulation role-playing game, World Energy, that provides an immersive learning experience in which participants can create their own path forward for global energy policy and learn about the impact of their policy choices on carbon dioxide emissions, temperature rise, energy supply mix, energy prices, and energy demand. The game puts players in the decision-making roles of advisors to the United Nations Sustainable Energy for All Initiative (drawn from international leaders from industry, governments, intergovernmental organizations, and citizens groups) and, using a state-of-the-art decision-support simulator, asks them to negotiate a plan for global energy policy. We use the En-ROADS (Energy Rapid Overview and Decision Support) simulator, which runs on a laptop computer in <0.1 sec. En-ROADS enables users to specify many factors, including R&D-driven cost reductions in fossil fuel-based, renewable, or carbon-neutral energy technologies; taxes and subsidies for different energy sources; performance standards and energy efficiency; emissions prices; policies to address other greenhouse gas emissions (e.g., methane, nitrous oxide, chlorofluorocarbons, etc.); and assumptions about GDP and population. In World Energy, participants must balance climate change mitigation goals with equity, prices and access to energy, and the political feasibility of policies. Initial results indicate participants gain insights into the dynamics of the energy and climate systems and greater understanding of the potential impacts policies.

Science in Society: Bridging the gap to connect science to decision makers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, L.; Bwarie, J.; Pearce, I.

2016-12-01

The gap between science and decision making in our society can be large and multi-faceted, involving communication, process, cultural and even subconscious differences. In sweeping generalization, scientists reject anecdotes, focus on uncertainty and details, and expect conflict as part of the scientific process, while non-scientists respond to stories, want certainty and the big picture, and see conflict as a reason to reject the message. Bridging this gap often requires ongoing collaboration to find the intersection of three independent domains: what science can provide, the technical information decision makers need to make the most effective choices and what information decision makers need to motivate action. For ten years, the USGS has experimented with improving the usefulness of its science through the SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Project and its predecessor, the Multi Hazards Demonstration Project in Southern California. Through leading and participating in these activities, we have recognized 3 steps that have been essential to successful partnerships between scientists and decision makers. First, determining what makes for a successful product cannot be done in isolation by either scientists or users. The users may want something science cannot produce (e.g., accurate short-term earthquake predictions), while the scientists can fail to see that the product they know how to make may not be relevant to the decisions that need to be made. Real discussions with real exchange and absorption of information on both sides makes for the most useful products. Second, most scientific results need work beyond what belongs in a journal to create a product that can be used. This is not just a different style of communication, but analyses that focus on the community's local questions rather than on scientific advances. Third, probabilities of natural hazards almost never motivate action to mitigate. The probabilities are usually low on human time scales and focus on the uncertainty, conveying a strong message that the hazard may not happen. Presenting the hazard as absolutely certain to occur, just on an unknown time scale is scientifically identical, but conveys a very different emotional message.

Using Remote Sensing Data and Research Results for Urban Heat Island Mitigation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Estes, Maury; Luvall, Jeffrey

1999-01-01

This paper provides information on the characteristics of the urban heat island, research designed to provide the data needed to develop effective urban heat island reduction strategies, and the development of local working groups to develop implementation plans. As background, an overview of research results on the urban heat island phenomenon and the resultant effect on energy usage and air quality will be explored. The use of more reflective roofing materials, paving materials, tree planting, and other initiatives will be explored as a basis for strategies to mitigate urban heat islands and improve the urban environment. Current efforts to use aircraft remote sensing data in Atlanta, Baton Rouge, Sacramento, and Salt Lake City and our work with non-profit organizations designated to lead public education and strategic development efforts will be presented. Efforts to organize working groups comprised of key stakeholders, the process followed in communicating research results, and methodology for soliciting feedback and incorporating ideas into local plans, policies and decision-making will be discussed. Challenges in developing and transferring data products and research results to stakeholders will be presented. It is our ultimate goal that such efforts be integrated into plans and/or decision models that encourage sustainable development.

Simulating Social and Political Influences on Hazard Analysis through a Classroom Role Playing Exercise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hales, T. C.; Cashman, K. V.

2006-12-01

Geological hazard mitigation is a complicated process that involves both detailed scientific research and negotiations between community members with competing interests in the solution. Geological hazards classes based around traditional lecture methods have difficulty conveying the decision-making processes that go into these negotiations. To address this deficiency, we have spent five years developing and testing a role- playing exercise based on mitigation of a dam outburst hazard on Ruapehu volcano, New Zealand. In our exercise, students are asked to undertake one of five different roles and decide the best way to mitigate the hazard. Over the course of their discussion students are challenged to reach a consensus decision despite the presence of strongly opposed positions. Key to the success of the exercise are (1) the presence of a facilitator and recorder for each meeting, (2) the provision of unique information for each interested party, and (3) the division of the class into multiple meeting groups, such that everyone is required to participate and individual groups can evolve to different conclusions. The exercise can be completed in a single hour and twenty minute classroom session that is divided into four parts: an introduction, a meeting between members of the same interested party to discuss strategy, a meeting between different interested parties, and a debriefing session. This framework can be readily translated to any classroom hazard problem. In our experience, students have responded positively to the use of role-playing to supplement lectures.

Greenhouse gas emissions reduction in different economic sectors: Mitigation measures, health co-benefits, knowledge gaps, and policy implications.

PubMed

Gao, Jinghong; Hou, Hongli; Zhai, Yunkai; Woodward, Alistair; Vardoulakis, Sotiris; Kovats, Sari; Wilkinson, Paul; Li, Liping; Song, Xiaoqin; Xu, Lei; Meng, Bohan; Liu, Xiaobo; Wang, Jun; Zhao, Jie; Liu, Qiyong

2018-09-01

To date, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, mitigation strategies and the accompanying health co-benefits in different economic sectors have not been fully investigated. The purpose of this paper is to review comprehensively the evidence on GHG mitigation measures and the related health co-benefits, identify knowledge gaps, and provide recommendations to promote further development and implementation of climate change response policies. Evidence on GHG emissions, abatement measures and related health co-benefits has been observed at regional, national and global levels, involving both low- and high-income societies. GHG mitigation actions have mainly been taken in five sectors: energy generation, transport, food and agriculture, household and industry, consistent with the main sources of GHG emissions. GHGs and air pollutants to a large extent stem from the same sources and are inseparable in terms of their atmospheric evolution and effects on ecosystem; thus, GHG reductions are usually, although not always, estimated to have cost effective co-benefits for public health. Some integrated mitigation strategies involving multiple sectors, which tend to create greater health benefits. The pros and cons of different mitigation measures, issues with existing knowledge, priorities for research, and potential policy implications were also discussed. Findings from this study can play a role not only in motivating large GHG emitters to make decisive changes in GHG emissions, but also in facilitating cooperation at international, national and regional levels, to promote GHG mitigation policies that protect public health from climate change and air pollution simultaneously. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

To risk or not to risk: Anxiety and the calibration between risk perception and danger mitigation.

PubMed

Notebaert, Lies; Masschelein, Stijn; Wright, Bridget; MacLeod, Colin

2016-06-01

Anxiety prepares an organism for dealing with threats by recruiting cognitive resources to process information about the threat, and by engaging physiological systems to prepare a response. Heightened trait anxiety is associated with biases in both these processes: high trait-anxious individuals tend to report heightened risk perceptions, and inappropriate engagement in danger mitigation behavior. However, no research has addressed whether the calibration between risk perception and danger mitigation behavior is affected by anxiety, though it is well recognized that this calibration is crucial for adaptive functioning. The current study aimed to examine whether anxiety is characterized by better or worse calibration of danger mitigation behavior to variations in risk magnitude. Low and high trait-anxious participants were presented with information about the likelihood and severity of a danger (loud noise burst) on each trial. Participants could decide to mitigate this danger by investing a virtual coin, at the cost of losing danger mitigation ability on subsequent trials. Importantly, level of risk likelihood and severity were varied independently, and the multiplicative relationship between the 2 defined total danger. Multilevel modeling showed that the magnitude of total danger predicted the probability of coin investments, over and above the effects of risk likelihood and severity, suggesting that participants calibrated their danger mitigation behavior to integrated risk information. Crucially, this calibration was affected by trait anxiety, indicating better calibration in high trait-anxious individuals. These results are discussed in light of existing knowledge and models of the effect of anxiety on risk perception and decision-making. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Climate mitigation and the future of tropical landscapes.

PubMed

Thomson, Allison M; Calvin, Katherine V; Chini, Louise P; Hurtt, George; Edmonds, James A; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Frolking, Steve; Wise, Marshall A; Janetos, Anthony C

2010-11-16

Land-use change to meet 21st-century demands for food, fuel, and fiber will depend on many interactive factors, including global policies limiting anthropogenic climate change and realized improvements in agricultural productivity. Climate-change mitigation policies will alter the decision-making environment for land management, and changes in agricultural productivity will influence cultivated land expansion. We explore to what extent future increases in agricultural productivity might offset conversion of tropical forest lands to crop lands under a climate mitigation policy and a contrasting no-policy scenario in a global integrated assessment model. The Global Change Assessment Model is applied here to simulate a mitigation policy that stabilizes radiative forcing at 4.5 W m(-2) (approximately 526 ppm CO(2)) in the year 2100 by introducing a price for all greenhouse gas emissions, including those from land use. These scenarios are simulated with several cases of future agricultural productivity growth rates and the results downscaled to produce gridded maps of potential land-use change. We find that tropical forests are preserved near their present-day extent, and bioenergy crops emerge as an effective mitigation option, only in cases in which a climate mitigation policy that includes an economic price for land-use emissions is in place, and in which agricultural productivity growth continues throughout the century. We find that idealized land-use emissions price assumptions are most effective at limiting deforestation, even when cropland area must increase to meet future food demand. These findings emphasize the importance of accounting for feedbacks from land-use change emissions in global climate change mitigation strategies.

Estimating European soil organic carbon mitigation potential in a global integrated land use model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frank, Stefan; Böttcher, Hannes; Schneider, Uwe; Schmid, Erwin; Havlík, Petr

2013-04-01

Several studies have shown the dynamic interaction between soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration rates, soil management decisions and SOC levels. Management practices such as reduced and no-tillage, improved residue management and crop rotations as well as the conversion of marginal cropland to native vegetation or conversion of cultivated land to permanent grassland offer the potential to increase SOC content. Even though dynamic interactions are widely acknowledged in literature, they have not been implemented in most existing land use decision models. A major obstacle is the high data and computing requirements for an explicit representation of alternative land use sequences since a model has to be able to track all different management decision paths. To our knowledge no study accounted so far for SOC dynamics explicitly in a global integrated land use model. To overcome these conceptual difficulties described above we apply an approach capable of accounting for SOC dynamics in GLOBIOM (Global Biosphere Management Model), a global recursive dynamic partial equilibrium bottom-up model integrating the agricultural, bioenergy and forestry sectors. GLOBIOM represents all major land based sectors and therefore is able to account for direct and indirect effects of land use change as well as leakage effects (e.g. through trade) implicitly. Together with the detailed representation of technologies (e.g. tillage and fertilizer management systems), these characteristics make the model a highly valuable tool for assessing European SOC emissions and mitigation potential. Demand and international trade are represented in this version of the model at the level of 27 EU member states and 23 aggregated world regions outside Europe. Changes in the demand on the one side, and profitability of the different land based activities on the other side, are the major determinants of land use change in GLOBIOM. In this paper we estimate SOC emissions from cropland for the EU until 2050 explicitly considering SOC dynamics due to land use and land management in a global integrated land use model. Moreover, we calculate the EU SOC mitigation potential taking into account leakage effects outside Europe as well as related feed backs from other sectors. In sensitivity analysis, we disaggregate the SOC mitigation potential i.e. we quantify the impact of different management systems and crop rotations to identify most promising mitigation strategies.

The Impacts of Climate Change Mitigation Strategies on Animal Welfare

PubMed Central

Shields, Sara; Orme-Evans, Geoffrey

2015-01-01

Simple Summary Climate change is probably the most important environmental issue of our time. Raising animals for food contributes to the production of greenhouse gases implicated in the global warming that is causing climate change. To combat this ecological disaster, a number of mitigation strategies involving changes to agricultural practices have been proposed. However, some of these changes will impact the welfare of farmed animals. This paper reviews selected climate change mitigation strategies and explains how different approaches could have negative or positive effects. Abstract The objective of this review is to point out that the global dialog on reducing greenhouse gas emissions in animal agriculture has, thus far, not adequately considered animal welfare in proposed climate change mitigation strategies. Many suggested approaches for reducing emissions, most of which could generally be described as calls for the intensification of production, can have substantial effects on the animals. Given the growing world-wide awareness and concern for animal welfare, many of these approaches are not socially sustainable. This review identifies the main emission abatement strategies in the climate change literature that would negatively affect animal welfare and details the associated problems. Alternative strategies are also identified as possible solutions for animal welfare and climate change, and it is suggested that more attention be focused on these types of options when allocating resources, researching mitigation strategies, and making policy decisions on reducing emissions from animal agriculture. PMID:26479240

Earthquake Vulnerability Assessment for Hospital Buildings Using a Gis-Based Group Multi Criteria Decision Making Approach: a Case Study of Tehran, Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delavar, M. R.; Moradi, M.; Moshiri, B.

2015-12-01

Nowadays, urban areas are threatened by a number of natural hazards such as flood, landslide and earthquake. They can cause huge damages to buildings and human beings which necessitates disaster mitigation and preparation. One of the most important steps in disaster management is to understand all impacts and effects of disaster on urban facilities. Given that hospitals take care of vulnerable people reaction of hospital buildings against earthquake is vital. In this research, the vulnerability of hospital buildings against earthquake is analysed. The vulnerability of buildings is related to a number of criteria including age of building, number of floors, the quality of materials and intensity of the earthquake. Therefore, the problem of seismic vulnerability assessment is a multi-criteria assessment problem and multi criteria decision making methods can be used to address the problem. In this paper a group multi criteria decision making model is applied because using only one expert's judgments can cause biased vulnerability maps. Sugeno integral which is able to take into account the interaction among criteria is employed to assess the vulnerability degree of buildings. Fuzzy capacities which are similar to layer weights in weighted linear averaging operator are calculated using particle swarm optimization. Then, calculated fuzzy capacities are included into the model to compute a vulnerability degree for each hospital.

Remote-sensing-based rapid assessment of flood crop loss to support USDA flooding decision-making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di, L.; Yu, G.; Yang, Z.; Hipple, J.; Shrestha, R.

2016-12-01

Floods often cause significant crop loss in the United States. Timely and objective assessment of flood-related crop loss is very important for crop monitoring and risk management in agricultural and disaster-related decision-making in USDA. Among all flood-related information, crop yield loss is particularly important. Decision on proper mitigation, relief, and monetary compensation relies on it. Currently USDA mostly relies on field surveys to obtain crop loss information and compensate farmers' loss claim. Such methods are expensive, labor intensive, and time consumptive, especially for a large flood that affects a large geographic area. Recent studies have demonstrated that Earth observation (EO) data are useful in post-flood crop loss assessment for a large geographic area objectively, timely, accurately, and cost effectively. There are three stages of flood damage assessment, including rapid assessment, early recovery assessment, and in-depth assessment. EO-based flood assessment methods currently rely on the time-series of vegetation index to assess the yield loss. Such methods are suitable for in-depth assessment but are less suitable for rapid assessment since the after-flood vegetation index time series is not available. This presentation presents a new EO-based method for the rapid assessment of crop yield loss immediately after a flood event to support the USDA flood decision making. The method is based on the historic records of flood severity, flood duration, flood date, crop type, EO-based both before- and immediate-after-flood crop conditions, and corresponding crop yield loss. It hypotheses that a flood of same severity occurring at the same pheonological stage of a crop will cause the similar damage to the crop yield regardless the flood years. With this hypothesis, a regression-based rapid assessment algorithm can be developed by learning from historic records of flood events and corresponding crop yield loss. In this study, historic records of MODIS-based flood and vegetation products and USDA/NASS crop type and crop yield data are used to train the regression-based rapid assessment algorithm. Validation of the rapid assessment algorithm indicates it can predict the yield loss at 90% accuracy, which is accurate enough to support USDA on flood-related quick response and mitigation.

Graphical Weather Information System Evaluation: Usability, Perceived Utility, and Preferences from General Aviation Pilots

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Latorella, Kara A.; Chamberlain, James P.

2002-01-01

Weather is a significant factor in General Aviation (GA) accidents and fatality rates. Graphical Weather Information Systems (GWISs) for the flight deck are appropriate technologies for mitigating the difficulties GA pilots have with current aviation weather information sources. This paper describes usability evaluations of a prototype GWIS by 12 GA pilots after using the system in flights towards convective weather. We provide design guidance for GWISs and discuss further research required to support weather situation awareness and in-flight decision making for GA pilots.

Inclusion of climate change strategies in municipal Integrated Development Plans: A case from seven municipalities in Limpopo Province, South Africa

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has made it clear that anthropogenic greenhouse gasses are the main cause of observed global warming that leads to climate change. Climate change is now a global reality. In the South African political set-up, local municipalities are the structures that are in direct contact with communities and they draw up Integrated Development Plans (IDPs), which are reviewed and upgraded annually. The article seeks to investigate the extent to which climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies are embedded IDPs in seven vulnerable municipalities in the Limpopo Province. The article conducted an in-depth content analysis of the IDPs of the seven municipalities and the results have revealed that these municipalities have not included adaptation and mitigation strategies adequately in their IDPs despite being the most vulnerable municipalities in the province. The article concludes that these municipalities have not as yet institutionalised climate change in their daily operations, planning and decision making. To this end, the paper recommends that local municipalities should include climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in their IDPs.

Hawaiian cultural influences on support for lava flow hazard mitigation measures during the January 1960 eruption of Kīlauea volcano, Kapoho, Hawai‘i

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gregg, Chris E.; Houghton, Bruce F.; Paton, Douglas; Swanson, D.A.; Lachman, R.; Bonk, W.J.

2008-01-01

On average, 72% of respondents favored the construction of earthen barriers to hold back or divert lava and protect Kapoho, but far fewer agreed with the military's use of bombs (14%) to protect Kapoho. In contrast, about one-third of respondents conditionally agreed with the use of bombs. It is suggested that local participation in the bombing strategy may explain the increased conditional acceptance of bombs as a mitigation tool, although this can not be conclusively demonstrated. Belief in Pele and being of Hawaiian ethnicity did not reduce support for the use of barriers, but did reduce support for bombs in both bombing scenarios. The disparity in levels of acceptance of barriers versus bombing and of one bombing strategy versus another suggests that historically public attitudes toward lava flow hazard mitigation strategies were complex. A modern comparative study is needed before the next damaging eruption to inform debates and decisions about whether or not to interfere with the flow of lava. Recent changes in the current eruption of Kīlauea make this a timely topic.

Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Options Database(GMOD)and Tool

EPA Science Inventory

Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Options Database (GMOD) is a decision support database and tool that provides cost and performance information for GHG mitigation options for the power, cement, refinery, landfill and pulp and paper sectors. The GMOD includes approximately 450 studies fo...

Effects of child interview tactics on prospective jurors' decisions.

PubMed

Johnson, Jonni L; Shelley, Alexandra E

2014-01-01

Although decisions in child sexual abuse (CSA) cases are influenced by many factors (e.g., child age, juror gender), case and trial characteristics (e.g., interview quality) can strongly influence legal outcomes. In the present study, 319 prospective jurors read about a CSA investigation in which the alleged victim was interviewed at a child advocacy center (CAC) or traditional police setting. The prospective jurors then provided legally relevant ratings (e.g., child credibility, interview quality, defendant guilt). Structural equation modeling techniques revealed that child credibility predicted greater confidence in guilt decisions and also mediated all associations with such decisions. Having fewer negative prior opinions and rating the interview as of better quality were associated with higher child credibility ratings. Mitigating factors (e.g., interview quality), as opposed to proxy indicators (e.g., participant gender), better predicted CSA case outcomes. Similar associations across groups (e.g., CAC interviews did not make child victims more or less credible) permit a tentative conclusion that CACs do not positively or negatively affect decisions made in hypothetical CSA cases. Ideas for future studies examining factors influencing decisions in CSA cases are discussed. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Decision Support For Digester Algae Integration For Improved Environmental And Economic Sustainability

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Guillen, Donna P.; Panike, Katherine R.; Havlovick, Caryn M.

The Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has teamed with University of Idaho and Boise State University to make the use of ADs more attractive by implementing a two-stage AD and coupling additional processes to the system. The addition of a polyhydroxyalkanoate (PHA) reactor, algae cultivation system, and a biomass treatment system such as fast-pyrolysis or hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL) would further sequester carbon and nutrients, as well as add valuable products that can be sold or used on-site to mitigate costs. The Decision-support for Digester-Algae IntegRation for Improved Environmental and Economic Sustainability (DAIRIEES) technoeconomic model will play a key role in evaluatingmore » the effectiveness and viability of this system to achieve economic and environmental sustainability by the dairy industry.« less

Complacency and bias in human use of automation: an attentional integration.

PubMed

Parasuraman, Raja; Manzey, Dietrich H

2010-06-01

Our aim was to review empirical studies of complacency and bias in human interaction with automated and decision support systems and provide an integrated theoretical model for their explanation. Automation-related complacency and automation bias have typically been considered separately and independently. Studies on complacency and automation bias were analyzed with respect to the cognitive processes involved. Automation complacency occurs under conditions of multiple-task load, when manual tasks compete with the automated task for the operator's attention. Automation complacency is found in both naive and expert participants and cannot be overcome with simple practice. Automation bias results in making both omission and commission errors when decision aids are imperfect. Automation bias occurs in both naive and expert participants, cannot be prevented by training or instructions, and can affect decision making in individuals as well as in teams. While automation bias has been conceived of as a special case of decision bias, our analysis suggests that it also depends on attentional processes similar to those involved in automation-related complacency. Complacency and automation bias represent different manifestations of overlapping automation-induced phenomena, with attention playing a central role. An integrated model of complacency and automation bias shows that they result from the dynamic interaction of personal, situational, and automation-related characteristics. The integrated model and attentional synthesis provides a heuristic framework for further research on complacency and automation bias and design options for mitigating such effects in automated and decision support systems.

"She Just Doesn't Know Him Like We Do": Illuminating Complexities in Surrogate Decision Making.

PubMed

Eves, Margot M; Esplin, Bryn S

2015-01-01

When patients are not able to speak for themselves, surrogate decision makers are asked to guide treatment decisions and formulate a plan of care in accordance with what the patients would have wanted. This necessitates an exploration into the patients' views about life and how it should be lived, how the patients constructed their identity or life story, and their attitudes towards sickness and suffering. When an individual appoints a surrogate, such as a healthcare power of attorney, a common presumption is that this designation evinces merit. This obscures the possibility of multiple other considerations that influence individual choice. This article presents a clinical case in which the claim to know someone best created a controversy that brought treatment decisions to a standstill. Further, it illuminates how the question, "Given the current medical condition, what would this person want?" risks presuming that a singular, unambiguous preference exists and that one person can provide the answer. Clinical ethicists can play a vital role in situations when there is a dispute among a designated surrogate and family members over a patient's preference. By embracing the complexity of the desire to synthesize seemingly irreconcilable perspectives about identity, uncovering the reasons that underlie disagreement, and guiding inquiry in such a way that allows stakeholders to move beyond the conflict, clinical ethicists can facilitate decision making that honors the patient and may mitigate moral distress. Copyright 2015 The Journal of Clinical Ethics. All rights reserved.

Estimating the potential water reuse based on fuzzy reasoning.

PubMed

Almeida, Giovana; Vieira, José; Marques, Alfeu Sá; Kiperstok, Asher; Cardoso, Alberto

2013-10-15

Studies worldwide suggest that the risk of water shortage in regions affected by climate change is growing. Decision support tools can help governments to identify future water supply problems in order to plan mitigation measures. Treated wastewater is considered a suitable alternative water resource and it is used for non-potable applications in many dry regions around the world. This work describes a decision support system (DSS) that was developed to identify current water reuse potential and the variables that determine the reclamation level. The DSS uses fuzzy inference system (FIS) as a tool and multi-criteria decision making is the conceptual approach behind the DSS. It was observed that water reuse level seems to be related to environmental factors such as drought, water exploitation index, water use, population density and the wastewater treatment rate, among others. A dataset was built to analyze these features through water reuse potential with a FIS that considered 155 regions and 183 cities. Despite some inexact fit between the classification and simulation data for agricultural and urban water reuse potential it was found that the FIS was suitable to identify the water reuse trend. Information on the water reuse potential is important because it issues a warning about future water supply needs based on climate change scenarios, which helps to support decision making with a view to tackling water shortage. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predictive and Reactive Distribution of Vaccines and Antivirals during Cross-Regional Pandemic Outbreaks

PubMed Central

Uribe-Sánchez, Andrés; Savachkin, Alex

2011-01-01

As recently pointed out by the Institute of Medicine, the existing pandemic mitigation models lack the dynamic decision support capability. We develop a large-scale simulation-driven optimization model for generating dynamic predictive distribution of vaccines and antivirals over a network of regional pandemic outbreaks. The model incorporates measures of morbidity, mortality, and social distancing, translated into the cost of lost productivity and medical expenses. The performance of the strategy is compared to that of the reactive myopic policy, using a sample outbreak in Fla, USA, with an affected population of over four millions. The comparison is implemented at different levels of vaccine and antiviral availability and administration capacity. Sensitivity analysis is performed to assess the impact of variability of some critical factors on policy performance. The model is intended to support public health policy making for effective distribution of limited mitigation resources. PMID:23074658

Development at the wildland-urban interface and the mitigation of forest-fire risk.

PubMed

Spyratos, Vassilis; Bourgeron, Patrick S; Ghil, Michael

2007-09-04

This work addresses the impacts of development at the wildland-urban interface on forest fires that spread to human habitats. Catastrophic fires in the western United States and elsewhere make these impacts a matter of urgency for decision makers, scientists, and the general public. Using a simple fire-spread model, along with housing and vegetation data, we show that fire size probability distributions can be strongly modified by the density and flammability of houses. We highlight a sharp transition zone in the parameter space of vegetation flammability and house density. Many actual fire landscapes in the United States appear to have spreading properties close to this transition. Thus, the density and flammability of buildings should be taken into account when assessing fire risk at the wildland-urban interface. Moreover, our results highlight ways for regulation at this interface to help mitigate fire risk.

Using Personification and Agency Reorientation to Reduce Mental-Health Clinicians’ Stigmatizing Attitudes Toward Patients

PubMed Central

Lebowitz, Matthew S.; Ahn, Woo-kyoung

2015-01-01

People with mental disorders are strongly stigmatized. Among mental-health professionals, stigmatizing attitudes often manifest as desire for social distance from people with mental disorders. Currently ascendant biomedical conceptualizations of psychopathology could exacerbate this problem by engendering dehumanization, which is linked to prejudice. Given the clinical implications of such an occurrence, the present research tested a possible mitigation strategy. In an online study of 216 U.S. mental-health clinicians, two strategies for mitigating dehumanization in healthcare were tested—personification, highlighting personal traits of people with mental disorders rather than presenting them as malfunctioning brains, and agency reorientation, underscoring people’s ability to make choices and decisions. This approach yielded significantly less desire for social distance, among clinicians, from a person with depression whose symptoms were explained biologically. These findings may suggest an avenue for decreasing stigma in clinical practice. PMID:27766309

Stakeholder analysis methodologies resource book

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Babiuch, W.M.; Farhar, B.C.

1994-03-01

Stakeholder analysis allows analysts to identify how parties might be affected by government projects. This process involves identifying the likely impacts of a proposed action and stakeholder groups affected by that action. Additionally, the process involves assessing how these groups might be affected and suggesting measures to mitigate any adverse effects. Evidence suggests that the efficiency and effectiveness of government actions can be increased and adverse social impacts mitigated when officials understand how a proposed action might affect stakeholders. This report discusses how to conduct useful stakeholder analyses for government officials making decisions on energy-efficiency and renewable-energy technologies and theirmore » commercialization. It discusses methodological issues that may affect the validity and reliability of findings, including sampling, generalizability, validity, ``uncooperative`` stakeholder groups, using social indicators, and the effect of government regulations. The Appendix contains resource directories and a list of specialists in stakeholder analysis and involvement.« less

Age differences in understanding precedent-setting decisions and authorities' responses to violations of deontic rules.

PubMed

Klaczynski, Paul A

2011-05-01

To examine age trends in precedent-setting decisions and the effects of these decisions on perceptions of authorities, preadolescents and adolescents were presented with deontic rule infractions that occurred in the absence or presence of mitigating circumstances. In Study 1, in the absence of mitigating circumstances, adolescents recommended punishing rule violations more than preadolescents; when mitigating circumstances were present, adolescents recommended punishing infractions less than preadolescents. In Study 2, before and after receiving information that authorities had punished or permitted rule violations, participants indicated their beliefs in authority legitimacy, rule strength, and rule deterrence value. In the absence of mitigating circumstances, beliefs strengthened when infractions were punished and beliefs weakened when infractions were permitted. When mitigating circumstances were present and authorities punished violations, preadolescents' legitimacy and deterrence beliefs strengthened. Adolescents' deterrence beliefs strengthened, but their beliefs in authority legitimacy weakened. When justifiable infractions were permitted, preadolescents' legitimacy and deterrence beliefs weakened, whereas adolescents' beliefs strengthened. Discussion focuses on age differences in legitimacy beliefs and understanding the consequences of setting precedents and on the relevance of the findings to theories of deontic reasoning, moral judgments, and epistemological development. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Don't shoot the messenger: re-framing climate policy to respond to evolving science (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allen, M. R.; Otto, F. E.; Otto, A.; Rayner, S.

2013-12-01

Lack of progress in mitigation policy, as atmospheric CO2 concentrations climb apparently inexorably past 400ppm, is often blamed on a failure to 'communicate the climate change message' effectively. A small but increasing number of commentators is arguing that the problem is not communication, but the way in which climate policy choices are framed. In particular, the overt politicization of climate science, with so-called 'belief in climate change' being invoked as automatically implying support for a global carbon price or cap-and-trade regime, or even as an argument for voting for specific parties, makes it increasingly difficult to discuss policy options in the light of evolving science. At the heart of the problem is the interpretation of the 'precautionary principle', which is widely invoked in climate policy as a response to scientific uncertainty: policies, it is argued, should be designed to be robust to the range of possible future climates, or to deliver the ';best' possible probability-weighted outcome. The problem with this approach is that it very often makes policy contingent on worst-case scenarios - such as the risk of high climate sensitivity or rapid non-linear climate change - which are often the most uncertain aspects of climate science and hence subject to frequent revision. To be relevant to policies that are based on mitigating worst-case risks, the scientific community is also required to focus on establishing what these risks are, leaving it open, unjustly but understandably, to the accusation of alarmism. Focusing on worst-case scenarios can also give the impression that the mitigation problem is unachievable, and the only option is short-term adaptation followed by geo-engineering. One way of reducing the politicization of climate science is to make policy explicitly contingent on the climate response, such that a high (or low) rate of anthropogenic warming over the coming decades is automatically met with an aggressive (or moderate) mitigation effort. In the short term, such 'adaptive' policy responses take two forms: either investing in technologies to ensure they are available if and when aggressive mitigation is necessary; or devising policies that respond explicitly to climate change, such as a carbon tax linked to global temperature. Neither of these approaches has gained much traction in the mitigation debate because they are both seen as 'kicking the can down the road', or placing the burden of tough mitigation decisions on future politicians. We will propose that a climate policy that is explicitly contingent on the climate response should otherwise be as inflexible as possible. Ideally, the only unpredictable element of the policy should be the rate of warming attributable to rising greenhouse gas concentrations over the coming decades. Those affected by the policy should be able take a clean position on what that rate is likely to be, unaffected by speculation on what future politicians are likely to do. On this measure, relying on a carbon price or subsidizing technology development are both too flexible, however attractive they might be assuming perfectly rational implementation, because their impact depends as much or more on future decisions on taxes and subsidies as it does on future climate. We will describe a possible alternative, upstream mandatory sequestration (or 'SAFE carbon') explicitly linked to attributable warming, and discuss how it might be implemented.

Use of surrogate indicators for the evaluation of potential health risks due to poor urban water quality: A Bayesian Network approach.

PubMed

Wijesiri, Buddhi; Deilami, Kaveh; McGree, James; Goonetilleke, Ashantha

2018-02-01

Urban water pollution poses risks of waterborne infectious diseases. Therefore, in order to improve urban liveability, effective pollution mitigation strategies are required underpinned by predictions generated using water quality models. However, the lack of reliability in current modelling practices detrimentally impacts planning and management decision making. This research study adopted a novel approach in the form of Bayesian Networks to model urban water quality to better investigate the factors that influence risks to human health. The application of Bayesian Networks was found to enhance the integration of quantitative and qualitative spatially distributed data for analysing the influence of environmental and anthropogenic factors using three surrogate indicators of human health risk, namely, turbidity, total nitrogen and fats/oils. Expert knowledge was found to be of critical importance in assessing the interdependent relationships between health risk indicators and influential factors. The spatial variability maps of health risk indicators developed enabled the initial identification of high risk areas in which flooding was found to be the most significant influential factor in relation to human health risk. Surprisingly, population density was found to be less significant in influencing health risk indicators. These high risk areas in turn can be subjected to more in-depth investigations instead of the entire region, saving time and resources. It was evident that decision making in relation to the design of pollution mitigation strategies needs to account for the impact of landscape characteristics on water quality, which can be related to risk to human health. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Integrated Forecast-Decision Systems For River Basin Planning and Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Georgakakos, A. P.

2005-12-01

A central application of climatology, meteorology, and hydrology is the generation of reliable forecasts for water resources management. In principle, effective use of forecasts could improve water resources management by providing extra protection against floods, mitigating the adverse effects of droughts, generating more hydropower, facilitating recreational activities, and minimizing the impacts of extreme events on the environment and the ecosystems. In practice, however, realization of these benefits depends on three requisite elements. First is the skill and reliability of forecasts. Second is the existence of decision support methods/systems with the ability to properly utilize forecast information. And third is the capacity of the institutional infrastructure to incorporate the information provided by the decision support systems into the decision making processes. This presentation discusses several decision support systems (DSS) using ensemble forecasting that have been developed by the Georgia Water Resources Institute for river basin management. These DSS are currently operational in Africa, Europe, and the US and address integrated water resources and energy planning and management in river basins with multiple water uses, multiple relevant temporal and spatial scales, and multiple decision makers. The article discusses the methods used and advocates that the design, development, and implementation of effective forecast-decision support systems must bring together disciplines, people, and institutions necessary to address today's complex water resources challenges.

Geospatial Data Fusion and Multigroup Decision Support for Surface Water Quality Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, A. Y.; Osidele, O.; Green, R. T.; Xie, H.

2010-12-01

Social networking and social media have gained significant popularity and brought fundamental changes to many facets of our everyday life. With the ever-increasing adoption of GPS-enabled gadgets and technology, location-based content is likely to play a central role in social networking sites. While location-based content is not new to the geoscience community, where geographic information systems (GIS) are extensively used, the delivery of useful geospatial data to targeted user groups for decision support is new. Decision makers and modelers ought to make more effective use of the new web-based tools to expand the scope of environmental awareness education, public outreach, and stakeholder interaction. Environmental decision processes are often rife with uncertainty and controversy, requiring integration of multiple sources of information and compromises between diverse interests. Fusing of multisource, multiscale environmental data for multigroup decision support is a challenging task. Toward this goal, a multigroup decision support platform should strive to achieve transparency, impartiality, and timely synthesis of information. The latter criterion often constitutes a major technical bottleneck to traditional GIS-based media, featuring large file or image sizes and requiring special processing before web deployment. Many tools and design patterns have appeared in recent years to ease the situation somewhat. In this project, we explore the use of Web 2.0 technologies for “pushing” location-based content to multigroups involved in surface water quality management and decision making. In particular, our granular bottom-up approach facilitates effective delivery of information to most relevant user groups. Our location-based content includes in-situ and remotely sensed data disseminated by NASA and other national and local agencies. Our project is demonstrated for managing the total maximum daily load (TMDL) program in the Arroyo Colorado coastal river basin in Texas. The overall design focuses on assigning spatial information to decision support elements and on efficiently using Web 2.0 technologies to relay scientific information to the nonscientific community. We conclude that (i) social networking, if appropriately used, has great potential for mitigating difficulty associated with multigroup decision making; (ii) all potential stakeholder groups should be involved in creating a useful decision support system; and (iii) environmental decision support systems should be considered a must-have, instead of an optional component of TMDL decision support projects. Acknowledgment: This project was supported by NASA grant NNX09AR63G.

Adapting to Uncertainty: Comparing Methodological Approaches to Climate Adaptation and Mitigation Policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huda, J.; Kauneckis, D. L.

2013-12-01

Climate change adaptation represents a number of unique policy-making challenges. Foremost among these is dealing with the range of future climate impacts to a wide scope of inter-related natural systems, their interaction with social and economic systems, and uncertainty resulting from the variety of downscaled climate model scenarios and climate science projections. These cascades of uncertainty have led to a number of new approaches as well as a reexamination of traditional methods for evaluating risk and uncertainty in policy-making. Policy makers are required to make decisions and formulate policy irrespective of the level of uncertainty involved and while a debate continues regarding the level of scientific certainty required in order to make a decision, incremental change in the climate policy continues at multiple governance levels. This project conducts a comparative analysis of the range of methodological approaches that are evolving to address uncertainty in climate change policy. It defines 'methodologies' to include a variety of quantitative and qualitative approaches involving both top-down and bottom-up policy processes that attempt to enable policymakers to synthesize climate information into the policy process. The analysis examines methodological approaches to decision-making in climate policy based on criteria such as sources of policy choice information, sectors to which the methodology has been applied, sources from which climate projections were derived, quantitative and qualitative methods used to deal with uncertainty, and the benefits and limitations of each. A typology is developed to better categorize the variety of approaches and methods, examine the scope of policy activities they are best suited for, and highlight areas for future research and development.

Recovery of Sleep or Recovery of Self? A Grounded Theory Study of Residents' Decision Making Regarding How to Spend Their Nonclinical Postcall Time.

PubMed

Taylor, Taryn S; Nisker, Jeff; Teunissen, Pim W; Dornan, Tim; Lingard, Lorelei

2016-03-01

As resident work hours policies evolve, residents' off-duty time remains poorly understood. Despite assumptions about how residents should be using their postcall, off-duty time, there is little research on how residents actually use this time and the reasoning underpinning their activities. This study sought to understand residents' nonclinical postcall activities when they leave the hospital, their decision-making processes, and their perspectives on the relationship between these activities and their well-being or recovery. The study took place at a Liaison Committee on Medical Education-accredited Canadian medical school from 2012 to 2014. The authors recruited a purposive and convenience sample of postgraduate year 1-5 residents from six surgical and nonsurgical specialties at three hospitals affiliated with the medical school. Using a constructivist grounded theory approach, semistructured interviews were conducted, audio-taped, transcribed, anonymized, and combined with field notes. The authors analyzed interview transcripts using constant comparative analysis and performed post hoc member checking. Twenty-four residents participated. Residents characterized their predominant approach to postcall decision making as one of making trade-offs between multiple, competing, seemingly incompatible, but equally valuable, activities. Participants exhibited two different trade-off orientations: being oriented toward maintaining a normal life or toward mitigating fatigue. The authors' findings on residents' trade-off orientations suggest a dual recovery model with postcall trade-offs motivated by the recovery of sleep or of self. This model challenges the dominant viewpoint in the current duty hours literature and suggests that the duty hours discussion must be broadened to include other recovery processes.

La Conchita Landslide Risk Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kropp, A.; Johnson, L.; Magnusen, W.; Hitchcock, C. S.

2009-12-01

Following the disastrous landslide in La Conchita in 2005 that resulted in ten deaths, the State of California selected our team to prepare a risk assessment for a committee of key stakeholders. The stakeholders represented the State of California, Ventura County, members of the La Conchita community, the railroad, and the upslope ranch owner (where the slide originated); a group with widely varying views and interests. Our team was charged with characterizing the major hazards, developing a series of mitigation concepts, evaluating the benefits and costs of mitigation, and gathering stakeholder input throughout the process. Two unique elements of the study were the methodologies utilized for the consequence assessment and for the decision-making framework. La Conchita is exposed to multiple slope hazards, each with differing geographical distributions, as well as depth and velocity characteristics. Three consequence matrices were developed so that the potential financial losses, structural vulnerabilities, and human safety exposure could be evaluated. The matrices utilized semi-quantitative loss evaluations (both financial and life safety) based on a generalized understanding of likely vulnerability and hazard characteristics. The model provided a quantitative estimate of cumulative losses over a 50-year period, including losses of life based on FEMA evaluation criteria. Conceptual mitigation options and loss estimates were developed to provide a range of risk management solutions that were feasible from a cost-benefit standpoint. A decision tree approach was adopted to focus on fundamental risk management questions rather than on specific outcomes since the committee did not have a consensus view on the preferred solution. These questions included: 1. Over what time period can risks be tolerated before implementation of decisions? 2. Whose responsibility is it to identify a workable risk management solution? 3. Who will own the project? The decision tree developed for assessment can also be used in the reverse direction to evaluate a project impasse or to evaluate owners and time-frames associated with a particular risk management outcome. Although the processes developed were specific to the La Conchita study, we believe that they are applicable elsewhere for localized multi-hazard assessments and/or committee-led risk management efforts.

An Integrated Assessment of Water Scarcity Effects on Energy and Land Use Decisions and Mitigation Policies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hejazi, M. I.; Kim, S. H.; Liu, L.; Liu, Y.; Calvin, K. V.; Leon, C.; Edmonds, J.; Kyle, P.; Patel, P.; Wise, M. A.; Davies, E. G.

2015-12-01

Water is essential for the world's food supply, for energy production, including bioenergy and hydroelectric power, and for power system cooling. Water is already scarce in many regions and could present a critical constraint as society attempts simultaneously to mitigate climate forcing and adapt to climate change, and to provide food for an increasing population. We use the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), where interactions between population, economic growth, energy, land and water resources interact simultaneously in a dynamically evolving system, to investigate how water scarcity affects energy and land use decisions as well as mitigation policies. In GCAM, competing claims on water resources from all claimants—energy, land, and economy—are reconciled with water resource availability—from renewable water, non-renewable groundwater sources and desalinated water—across 235 major river basins. Limits to hydrologic systems have significant effects on energy and land use induced emissions via constraints on decisions of their use. We explore these effects and how they evolve under climate change mitigation policies, which can significantly alter land use patterns, both by limiting land use change emissions and by increasing bioenergy production. The study also explores the mitigation scenarios in the context of the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). We find that previous estimates of global water withdrawal projections are overestimated, as our simulations show that it is more economical in some basins to alter agricultural and energy activities rather than utilize non-renewable groundwater or desalinated water. This study highlights the fact that water is a binding factor in agriculture, energy and land use decisions in integrated assessment models (IAMs), and stresses the crucial role of water in regulating agricultural commodities trade and land-use and energy decisions.

Investigating the Nexus of Climate, Energy, Water, and Land at Decision-Relevant Scales: The Platform for Regional Integrated Modeling and Analysis (PRIMA)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kraucunas, Ian P.; Clarke, Leon E.; Dirks, James A.

2015-04-01

The Platform for Regional Integrated Modeling and Analysis (PRIMA) is an innovative modeling system developed at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) to simulate interactions among natural and human systems at scales relevant to regional decision making. PRIMA brings together state-of-the-art models of regional climate, hydrology, agriculture, socioeconomics, and energy systems using a flexible coupling approach. The platform can be customized to inform a variety of complex questions and decisions, such as the integrated evaluation of mitigation and adaptation options across a range of sectors. Research into stakeholder decision support needs underpins the platform's application to regional issues, including uncertainty characterization.more » Ongoing numerical experiments are yielding new insights into the interactions among human and natural systems on regional scales with an initial focus on the energy-land-water nexus in the upper U.S. Midwest. This paper focuses on PRIMA’s functional capabilities and describes some lessons learned to date about integrated regional modeling.« less

Implementation of equity in resource allocation for regional earthquake risk mitigation using two-stage stochastic programming.

PubMed

Zolfaghari, Mohammad R; Peyghaleh, Elnaz

2015-03-01

This article presents a new methodology to implement the concept of equity in regional earthquake risk mitigation programs using an optimization framework. It presents a framework that could be used by decisionmakers (government and authorities) to structure budget allocation strategy toward different seismic risk mitigation measures, i.e., structural retrofitting for different building structural types in different locations and planning horizons. A two-stage stochastic model is developed here to seek optimal mitigation measures based on minimizing mitigation expenditures, reconstruction expenditures, and especially large losses in highly seismically active countries. To consider fairness in the distribution of financial resources among different groups of people, the equity concept is incorporated using constraints in model formulation. These constraints limit inequity to the user-defined level to achieve the equity-efficiency tradeoff in the decision-making process. To present practical application of the proposed model, it is applied to a pilot area in Tehran, the capital city of Iran. Building stocks, structural vulnerability functions, and regional seismic hazard characteristics are incorporated to compile a probabilistic seismic risk model for the pilot area. Results illustrate the variation of mitigation expenditures by location and structural type for buildings. These expenditures are sensitive to the amount of available budget and equity consideration for the constant risk aversion. Most significantly, equity is more easily achieved if the budget is unlimited. Conversely, increasing equity where the budget is limited decreases the efficiency. The risk-return tradeoff, equity-reconstruction expenditures tradeoff, and variation of per-capita expected earthquake loss in different income classes are also presented. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

GRADE: Assessing the quality of evidence in environmental and occupational health.

PubMed

Morgan, Rebecca L; Thayer, Kristina A; Bero, Lisa; Bruce, Nigel; Falck-Ytter, Yngve; Ghersi, Davina; Guyatt, Gordon; Hooijmans, Carlijn; Langendam, Miranda; Mandrioli, Daniele; Mustafa, Reem A; Rehfuess, Eva A; Rooney, Andrew A; Shea, Beverley; Silbergeld, Ellen K; Sutton, Patrice; Wolfe, Mary S; Woodruff, Tracey J; Verbeek, Jos H; Holloway, Alison C; Santesso, Nancy; Schünemann, Holger J

2016-01-01

There is high demand in environmental health for adoption of a structured process that evaluates and integrates evidence while making decisions and recommendations transparent. The Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) framework holds promise to address this demand. For over a decade, GRADE has been applied successfully to areas of clinical medicine, public health, and health policy, but experience with GRADE in environmental and occupational health is just beginning. Environmental and occupational health questions focus on understanding whether an exposure is a potential health hazard or risk, assessing the exposure to understand the extent and magnitude of risk, and exploring interventions to mitigate exposure or risk. Although GRADE offers many advantages, including its flexibility and methodological rigor, there are features of the different sources of evidence used in environmental and occupational health that will require further consideration to assess the need for method refinement. An issue that requires particular attention is the evaluation and integration of evidence from human, animal, in vitro, and in silico (computer modeling) studies when determining whether an environmental factor represents a potential health hazard or risk. Assessment of the hazard of exposures can produce analyses for use in the GRADE evidence-to-decision (EtD) framework to inform risk-management decisions about removing harmful exposures or mitigating risks. The EtD framework allows for grading the strength of the recommendations based on judgments of the certainty in the evidence (also known as quality of the evidence), as well as other factors that inform recommendations such as social values and preferences, resource implications, and benefits. GRADE represents an untapped opportunity for environmental and occupational health to make evidence-based recommendations in a systematic and transparent manner. The objectives of this article are to provide an overview of GRADE, discuss GRADE's applicability to environmental health, and identify priority areas for method assessment and development. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

GRADE: Assessing the quality of evidence in environmental and occupational health

PubMed Central

Morgan, Rebecca L; Thayer, Kristina A; Bero, Lisa; Bruce, Nigel; Falck-Ytter, Yngve; Ghersi, Davina; Guyatt, Gordon; Hooijmans, Carlijn; Langendam, Miranda; Mandrioli, Daniele; Mustafa, Reem A.; Rehfuess, Eva A; Rooney, Andrew A; Shea, Beverley; Silbergeld, Ellen K; Sutton, Patrice; Wolfe, Mary; Woodruff, Tracey J; Verbeek, Jos H; Holloway, Alison C.; Santesso, Nancy; Schünemann, Holger J

2016-01-01

There is high demand in environmental health for adoption of a structured process that evaluates and integrates evidence while making decisions and recommendations transparent. The Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) framework holds promise to address this demand. For over a decade, GRADE has been applied successfully to areas of clinical medicine, public health, and health policy, but experience with GRADE in environmental and occupational health is just beginning. Environmental and occupational health questions focus on understanding whether an exposure is a potential health hazard or risk, assessing the exposure to understand the extent and magnitude of risk, and exploring interventions to mitigate exposure or risk. Although GRADE offers many advantages, including its flexibility and methodological rigor, there are features of the different sources of evidence used in environmental and occupational health that will require further consideration to assess the need for method refinement. An issue that requires particular attention is the evaluation and integration of evidence from human, animal, in vitro, and in silico (computer modelling) studies when determining whether an environmental factor represents a potential health hazard or risk. Assessment of the hazard of exposures can produce analyses for use in the GRADE evidence-to-decision (EtD) framework to inform risk-management decisions about removing harmful exposures or mitigating risks. The EtD framework allows for grading the strength of the recommendations based on judgments of the certainty in the evidence (also known as quality of the evidence), as well as other factors that inform recommendations such as social values and preferences, resource implications, and benefits. GRADE represents an untapped opportunity for environmental and occupational health to make evidence-based recommendations in a systematic and transparent manner. The objectives of this article are to provide an overview of GRADE, discuss GRADE’s applicability to environmental health, and identify priority areas for method assessment and development. PMID:26827182

Usual Populations, Unusual Individuals: Insights into the Behavior and Management of Asian Elephants in Fragmented Landscapes

PubMed Central

Srinivasaiah, Nishant M.; Vaidyanathan, Srinivas; Sinha, Anindya

2012-01-01

Background A dearth in understanding the behavior of Asian elephants (Elephas maximus) at the scale of populations and individuals has left important management issues, particularly related to human-elephant conflict (HEC), unresolved. Evaluation of differences in behavior and decision-making among individual elephants across groups in response to changing local ecological settings is essential to fill this gap in knowledge and to improve our approaches towards the management and conservation of elephants. Methodology/Principal Findings We hypothesized certain behavioral decisions that would be made by Asian elephants as reflected in their residence time and movement rates, time-activity budgets, social interactions and group dynamics in response to resource availability and human disturbance in their habitat. This study is based on 200 h of behavioral observations on 60 individually identified elephants and a 184-km2 grid-based survey of their natural and anthropogenic habitats within and outside the Bannerghatta National Park, southern India during the dry season. At a general population level, the behavioral decisions appeared to be guided by the gender, age and group-type of the elephants. At the individual level, the observed variation could be explained only by the idiosyncratic behaviors of individuals and that of their associating conspecific individuals. Recursive partitioning classification trees for residence time of individual elephants indicated that the primary decisions were taken by individuals, independently of their above-mentioned biological and ecological attributes. Conclusions/Significance Decision-making by Asian elephants thus appears to be determined at two levels, that of the population and, more importantly, the individual. Models based on decision-making by individual elephants have the potential to predict conflict in fragmented landscapes that, in turn, could aid in mitigating HEC. Thus, we must target individuals, in addition to populations, in our efforts to manage and conserve this threatened species, particularly in human-dominated landscapes. PMID:22916135

Usual populations, unusual individuals: insights into the behavior and management of Asian elephants in fragmented landscapes.

PubMed

Srinivasaiah, Nishant M; Anand, Vijay D; Vaidyanathan, Srinivas; Sinha, Anindya

2012-01-01

A dearth in understanding the behavior of Asian elephants (Elephas maximus) at the scale of populations and individuals has left important management issues, particularly related to human-elephant conflict (HEC), unresolved. Evaluation of differences in behavior and decision-making among individual elephants across groups in response to changing local ecological settings is essential to fill this gap in knowledge and to improve our approaches towards the management and conservation of elephants. We hypothesized certain behavioral decisions that would be made by Asian elephants as reflected in their residence time and movement rates, time-activity budgets, social interactions and group dynamics in response to resource availability and human disturbance in their habitat. This study is based on 200 h of behavioral observations on 60 individually identified elephants and a 184-km(2) grid-based survey of their natural and anthropogenic habitats within and outside the Bannerghatta National Park, southern India during the dry season. At a general population level, the behavioral decisions appeared to be guided by the gender, age and group-type of the elephants. At the individual level, the observed variation could be explained only by the idiosyncratic behaviors of individuals and that of their associating conspecific individuals. Recursive partitioning classification trees for residence time of individual elephants indicated that the primary decisions were taken by individuals, independently of their above-mentioned biological and ecological attributes. Decision-making by Asian elephants thus appears to be determined at two levels, that of the population and, more importantly, the individual. Models based on decision-making by individual elephants have the potential to predict conflict in fragmented landscapes that, in turn, could aid in mitigating HEC. Thus, we must target individuals, in addition to populations, in our efforts to manage and conserve this threatened species, particularly in human-dominated landscapes.

Interaction of Technology Adoption Constraints and Multi-level Policy Coherence at the Energy-Food Nexus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gerst, M.; Cox, M. E.; Laser, M.; Locke, K. A.; Kapuscinski, A. R.

2017-12-01

Policy- and decision-making at the food-energy-water (FEW) nexus entails additional complexities due to the multi-objective nature of FEW socio-technical systems: policies and decisions meant to improve one facet of the nexus might be less beneficial, or even detrimental, to achieving goals for other facets. In addition, implementing policies and decisions may be more difficult due to increasing coordination required among stakeholders across each nexus facet. We highlight these issues in an economic, material/energy flow, and institutional assessment of dairy farms that produce power from anaerobic digestion of cow manure. This socio-technical system is an example of an integrated food-energy system (IFES), which co-produces food and energy. In the case of dairy farms, water is also a significant consideration because cow manure, if improperly managed, can negatively impact water bodies. Our assessment asks the questions (i) of whether or not adopting an IFES improves farm resilience under potential economic and environment futures and (ii) how decisions, policies, and information can best be tailored to the FEW nexus. Our study consists of semi-structured interviews of 60 farms split between the US states of New York and Vermont, both of which have enacted policies to encourage digester adoption. Each interview asks farmers about their material and energy flows, costs, and decision-making process for adopting (or not) an anaerobic digester. In addition, farmers are asked questions about challenges and barriers they might have faced and future drivers of change. Preliminary results highlight important interactions between policy and decision-making. Foremost, an analysis of policy cohesion shows that environmental objectives cross sectors and governance levels, as state-level greenhouse gas mitigation policies interact with federal-level nutrient management policies. This form of potential policy incoherence may introduce additional problems that hinder digester adoption and operation because technology options might be constrained and information needs may be too great for farmer's to consider adopting a digester.

Political Challenges and Opportunities to Climate Change Mitigation: A View from the Front Lines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weaver, A. J.

2014-12-01

Subsequent to the release of the 2007 Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the Province of British Columbia in Canada became an international leader in the development and implementation of innovative climate change mitigation policies. These include, but are not limited to, the 2008 Greenhouse Gas Reductions Target Act, the 2008 Carbon Tax Act and the 2010 Clean Energy Act. British Columbia's Cleantech sector quickly responded to, and thrived as a result of, the signal sent by government to the market. But with a change in Premier in 2011 came a change in priorities. A number of the previous initiatives have either been weakened or no longer followed through with as the Province sets its vision of being a major exporter of Liquified Natural Gas. As a member of the British Columbia Climate Action Team set up by Premier Gordon Campbell in 2007 to provide advice to government on a variety of policy-related matters, I was fortunate to be able to watch first hand as the Province aggressively moved towards reducing its Greenhouse gas emissions. Rather than stand on the sidelines as the government lost its direction on the climate file I chose to run with the BC Green Party in the 2013 provincial election. I was subsequently elected as a Member of the Legislative Assembly representing the constituents of Oak Bay Gordon Head. While science can and should inform policy deliberations, in and of itself, science cannot and should not prescribe policy outcomes. Whether or not we deal with today's challenge of climate change boils down to a question of intergeneration equity. Does the present generation owe anything to future generations in terms of the quality of the environment that they inherit? Many of today's elected decision-makers are focused on short-term decision-making. Yet those who will be affected by the consequences of these decisions are not part of the decision making process — hence the political conundrum. In this presentation I detail some of the political opportunities and challenges associated with efforts to ensure political decision-makers consider the long term consequences of their climate and energy policy while balancing a myriad other immediately-pressing issues.

The community resource management area mechanism: a strategy to manage African forest resources for REDD+.

PubMed

Asare, Rebecca A; Kyei, Andrew; Mason, John J

2013-01-01

Climate change poses a significant threat to Africa, and deforestation rates have increased in recent years. Mitigation initiatives such as REDD+ are widely considered as potentially efficient ways to generate emission reductions (or removals), conserve or sustainably manage forests, and bring benefits to communities, but effective implementation models are lacking. This paper presents the case of Ghana's Community Resource Management Area (CREMA) mechanism, an innovative natural resource governance and landscape-level planning tool that authorizes communities to manage their natural resources for economic and livelihood benefits. This paper argues that while the CREMA was originally developed to facilitate community-based wildlife management and habitat protection, it offers a promising community-based structure and process for managing African forest resources for REDD+. At a theoretical level, it conforms to the ecological, socio-cultural and economic factors that drive resource-users' decision process and practices. And from a practical mitigation standpoint, the CREMA has the potential to help solve many of the key challenges for REDD+ in Africa, including definition of boundaries, smallholder aggregation, free prior and informed consent, ensuring permanence, preventing leakage, clarifying land tenure and carbon rights, as well as enabling equitable benefit-sharing arrangements. Ultimately, CREMA's potential as a forest management and climate change mitigation strategy that generates livelihood benefits for smallholder farmers and forest users will depend upon the willingness of African governments to support the mechanism and give it full legislative backing, and the motivation of communities to adopt the CREMA and integrate democratic decision-making and planning with their traditional values and natural resource management systems.

The community resource management area mechanism: a strategy to manage African forest resources for REDD+

PubMed Central

Asare, Rebecca A.; Kyei, Andrew; Mason, John J.

2013-01-01

Climate change poses a significant threat to Africa, and deforestation rates have increased in recent years. Mitigation initiatives such as REDD+ are widely considered as potentially efficient ways to generate emission reductions (or removals), conserve or sustainably manage forests, and bring benefits to communities, but effective implementation models are lacking. This paper presents the case of Ghana's Community Resource Management Area (CREMA) mechanism, an innovative natural resource governance and landscape-level planning tool that authorizes communities to manage their natural resources for economic and livelihood benefits. This paper argues that while the CREMA was originally developed to facilitate community-based wildlife management and habitat protection, it offers a promising community-based structure and process for managing African forest resources for REDD+. At a theoretical level, it conforms to the ecological, socio-cultural and economic factors that drive resource-users’ decision process and practices. And from a practical mitigation standpoint, the CREMA has the potential to help solve many of the key challenges for REDD+ in Africa, including definition of boundaries, smallholder aggregation, free prior and informed consent, ensuring permanence, preventing leakage, clarifying land tenure and carbon rights, as well as enabling equitable benefit-sharing arrangements. Ultimately, CREMA's potential as a forest management and climate change mitigation strategy that generates livelihood benefits for smallholder farmers and forest users will depend upon the willingness of African governments to support the mechanism and give it full legislative backing, and the motivation of communities to adopt the CREMA and integrate democratic decision-making and planning with their traditional values and natural resource management systems. PMID:23878338

The role of current affect, anticipated affect and spontaneous self-affirmation in decisions to receive self-threatening genetic risk information.

PubMed

Ferrer, Rebecca A; Taber, Jennifer M; Klein, William M P; Harris, Peter R; Lewis, Katie L; Biesecker, Leslie G

2015-01-01

One reason for not seeking personally threatening information may be negative current and anticipated affective responses. We examined whether current (e.g., worry) and anticipated negative affect predicted intentions to seek sequencing results in the context of an actual genomic sequencing trial (ClinSeq®; n = 545) and whether spontaneous self-affirmation mitigated any (negative) association between affect and intentions. Anticipated affective response negatively predicted intentions to obtain and share results pertaining to both medically actionable and non-actionable disease, whereas current affect was only a marginal predictor. The negative association between anticipated affect and intentions to obtain results pertaining to non-actionable disease was weaker in individuals who were higher in spontaneous self-affirmation. These results have implications for the understanding of current and anticipated affect, self-affirmation and consequential decision-making and contribute to a growing body of evidence on the role of affect in medical decisions.

A Decision Support System for Mitigating Stream Temperature Impacts in the Sacramento River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caldwell, R. J.; Zagona, E. A.; Rajagopalan, B.

2014-12-01

Increasing demands on the limited and variable water supply across the West can result in insufficient streamflow to sustain healthy fish habitat. We develop an integrated decision support system (DSS) for modeling and mitigating stream temperature impacts and demonstrate it on the Sacramento River system in California. Water management in the Sacramento River is a complex task with a diverse set of demands ranging from municipal supply to mitigation of fisheries impacts due to high water temperatures. Current operations utilize the temperature control device (TCD) structure at Shasta Dam to mitigate these high water temperatures downstream at designated compliance points. The TCD structure at Shasta Dam offers a rather unique opportunity to mitigate water temperature violations through adjustments to both release volume and temperature. In this study, we develop and evaluate a model-based DSS with four broad components that are coupled to produce the decision tool for stream temperature mitigation: (i) a suite of statistical models for modeling stream temperature attributes using hydrology and climate variables of critical importance to fish habitat; (ii) a reservoir thermal model for modeling the thermal structure and, consequently, the water release temperature, (iii) a stochastic weather generator to simulate weather sequences consistent with seasonal outlooks; and, (iv) a set of decision rules (i.e., 'rubric') for reservoir water releases in response to outputs from the above components. Multiple options for modifying releases at Shasta Dam were considered in the DSS, including mixing water from multiple elevations through the TCD and using different acceptable levels of risk. The DSS also incorporates forecast uncertainties and reservoir operating options to help mitigate stream temperature impacts for fish habitat, while efficiently using the reservoir water supply and cold pool storage. The use of these coupled tools in simulating impacts of future climate on stream temperature variability is also demonstrated. Results indicate that the DSS could substantially reduce the number of violations of thermal criteria, while ensuring maintenance of the cold pool storage throughout the summer.

A quantitative flood risk analysis methodology for urban areas with integration of social research data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Escuder-Bueno, I.; Castillo-Rodríguez, J. T.; Zechner, S.; Jöbstl, C.; Perales-Momparler, S.; Petaccia, G.

2012-09-01

Risk analysis has become a top priority for authorities and stakeholders in many European countries, with the aim of reducing flooding risk, considering the population's needs and improving risk awareness. Within this context, two methodological pieces have been developed in the period 2009-2011 within the SUFRI project (Sustainable Strategies of Urban Flood Risk Management with non-structural measures to cope with the residual risk, 2nd ERA-Net CRUE Funding Initiative). First, the "SUFRI Methodology for pluvial and river flooding risk assessment in urban areas to inform decision-making" provides a comprehensive and quantitative tool for flood risk analysis. Second, the "Methodology for investigation of risk awareness of the population concerned" presents the basis to estimate current risk from a social perspective and identify tendencies in the way floods are understood by citizens. Outcomes of both methods are integrated in this paper with the aim of informing decision making on non-structural protection measures. The results of two case studies are shown to illustrate practical applications of this developed approach. The main advantage of applying the methodology herein presented consists in providing a quantitative estimation of flooding risk before and after investing in non-structural risk mitigation measures. It can be of great interest for decision makers as it provides rational and solid information.

The invisibility of fisheries in the process of hydropower development across the Amazon.

PubMed

Doria, Carolina Rodrigues da Costa; Athayde, Simone; Marques, Elineide E; Lima, Maria Alice Leite; Dutka-Gianelli, Jynessa; Ruffino, Mauro Luis; Kaplan, David; Freitas, Carlos E C; Isaac, Victoria N

2018-05-01

We analyze the invisibility of fisheries and inadequacy of fishers' participation in the process of hydropower development in the Amazon, focusing on gaps between legally mandated and actual outcomes. Using Ostrom's institutional design principles for assessing common-pool resource management, we selected five case studies from Brazilian Amazonian watersheds to conduct an exploratory comparative case-study analysis. We identify similar problems across basins, including deficiencies in the dam licensing process; critical data gaps; inadequate stakeholder participation; violation of human rights; neglect of fishers' knowledge; lack of organization and representation by fishers' groups; and lack of governmental structure and capacity to manage dam construction activities or support fishers after dam construction. Fishers have generally been marginalized or excluded from decision-making regarding planning, construction, mitigation, compensation, and monitoring of the social-ecological impacts of hydroelectric dams. Addressing these deficiencies will require concerted investments and efforts by dam developers, government agencies and civil society, and the promotion of inter-sectorial dialogue and cross-scale participatory planning and decision-making that includes fishers and their associations.

Effective behavioral modeling and prediction even when few exemplars are available

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goan, Terrance; Kartha, Neelakantan; Kaneshiro, Ryan

2006-05-01

While great progress has been made in the lowest levels of data fusion, practical advances in behavior modeling and prediction remain elusive. The most critical limitation of existing approaches is their inability to support the required knowledge modeling and continuing refinement under realistic constraints (e.g., few historic exemplars, the lack of knowledge engineering support, and the need for rapid system deployment). This paper reports on our ongoing efforts to develop Propheteer, a system which will address these shortcomings through two primary techniques. First, with Propheteer we abandon the typical consensus-driven modeling approaches that involve infrequent group decision making sessions in favor of an approach that solicits asynchronous knowledge contributions (in the form of alternative future scenarios and indicators) without burdening the user with endless certainty or probability estimates. Second, we enable knowledge contributions by personnel beyond the typical core decision making group, thereby casting light on blind spots, mitigating human biases, and helping maintain the currency of the developed behavior models. We conclude with a discussion of the many lessons learned in the development of our prototype Propheteer system.

19 CFR 172.22 - Decisions not protestable.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... and satisfaction. Payment of a mitigated or cancellation amount in compliance with an administrative... accord and satisfaction of the Government claim. Payment of a mitigated or cancellation amount will never...

Lessons Learned on Effective Co-production of Drought Science and Decision Support Tools with the Wind River Reservation Tribal Water Managers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McNeeley, S.; Ojima, D. S.; Beeton, T.

2015-12-01

The Wind River Reservation in west-central Wyoming is home of the Eastern Shoshone and Northern Arapaho Tribes. The reservation has experienced severe drought impacts on Tribal livelihoods and cultural activities in recent years. Scientists from the North Central Climate Science Center, the National Drought Mitigation Center, the High Plains Regional Climate Center, and multiple others are working in close partnership with the tribal water managers on a reservation-wide drought preparedness project that includes a technical assessment of drought risk, capacity building to train managers on drought and climate science and indicators, and drought planning. This talk will present project activities to date along with the valuable and transferrable lessons learned on effective co-production of actionable science for decision making in a tribal context.

Predicting the impact of land management decisions on overland flow generation: Implications for cesium migration in forested Fukushima watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siirila-Woodburn, Erica R.; Steefel, Carl I.; Williams, Kenneth H.; Birkholzer, Jens T.

2018-03-01

The effects of land use and land cover (LULC) change on environmental systems across the land surface's "critical zone" are highly uncertain, often making prediction and risk management decision difficult. In a series of numerical experiments with an integrated hydrologic model, overland flow generation is quantified for both present day and forest thinning scenarios. A typhoon storm event in a watershed near the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant is used as an example application in which the interplay between LULC change and overland flow generation is important given that sediment-bound radionuclides may cause secondary contamination via surface water transport. Results illustrate the nonlinearity of the integrated system spanning from the deep groundwater to the atmosphere, and provide quantitative tools when determining the tradeoffs of different risk-mitigation strategies.

The economic value of drought information: Application to water resources management decisions in Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garrote, Luis; Sordo, Alvaro; Iglesias, Ana

2016-04-01

Information is valuable when it improves decision-making (e.g., actions can be adjusted to better suit the situation at hand) and enables the mitigation of damage. However, quantifying the value of information is often difficult. Here we explore a general approach to understand the economic value of drought information for water managers framing our approach in the precautionary principle that reminds us that uncertainty is not a reason to postpone or avoid action. We explore how decision making can disregard uncertain effects, taking a short-term approach and focusing instead on the certain costs and benefits of taking action. Two main questions arise: How do we know that advanced drought information is actually helping decisions?; and What is the value of information in the decision process? The approach is applied to several regulated water resources systems in Spain. It first views drought information as a factor in the decision process which can be used by water managers to reduce uncertainty. Second, the value of drought information is the expected gain in a decision outcome (utility) from using additional information. Finally, the gains of improved information are compared with the information collection costs. Here we estimate the value by taking into account the accuracy of the drought information, the subjective probabilities about the value, analyzed as Bayesian probabilities, and the ability or skill of the stakeholders to apply the drought information to modify their actions. Since information may be considered a public good (non-rivalry and non-excludability), it may justify public policy in the provision of information, considering social costs and benefits. The application of the framework to the Spanish case studies shows that information benefits exceeds to costs when drought frequency is 20-40% above normal values; below these values uncertainty in the decisions dominate the results; above these values, the management decisions are limited even with perfect information.

Understanding of urban hazards, fire, and tsunamis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hays, Walter W.; ,

1997-01-01

Understanding of the causes and solutions of an urban area's (e.g., Los Angeles, San Diego, San Francisco, Oakland, Seattle, Portland, Anchorage, Salt Lake City, Memphis, St. Louis, Charleston, Boston, San Juan) vulnerability to earthquakes, fire, and tsunamis has increased significantly during the past 50 years, and during the current International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR). Vulnerability is caused by flaws in planning, siting, design, construction, and use. It is fundamentally dependent upon the hazard, built, and policy environments of the urban area. Reduction of vulnerability is directly related to the decision-making process that calls for the adoption and enforcement of risk management programs (e.g., mitigation, preparedness, emergency response, and recovery measures) that are designed to make the urban area resilient to earthquakes, fires, and, as appropriate, tsunamis.

Science for decision making: Transmitting hazard science using catastrophic scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wein, A.

2010-12-01

The ShakeOut and ARkStorm scenarios are scientifically-based, multi-disciplinary efforts to describe the damages and consequences of large, but plausible, natural disasters for use in emergency management and other planning. The ShakeOut earthquake scenario, completed in 2008, posits the occurrence of a major earthquake on the southern San Andreas Fault. It was used by more than 5,000 emergency personnel in a California statewide exercise, and it underpins the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA) Catastrophic Plan for Southern California. The ARkStorm winter storm scenario, to be completed in 2010, posits the occurrence of a statewide disaster like the storm that occurred during 1861-1862. The ARkStorm scenario will culminate with two planning summits comprised of federal and state agencies, because such an event would exceed local response and recovery capabilities. This talk will address the following questions that are critical to transmitting science for decision making with examples and observations from the two scenarios: 1) Who are the end users of the scenarios, what types of decisions can scenarios inform, and how are stakeholders engaged? 2) What forms of information and processes work best to communicate and apply the hazard science? 3) What are the challenges of using science in decision making? 4) What future directions shall we pursue? From my perspective as coordinator of economic consequences analyses for the two scenarios, I will share insights to these questions. Framing stakeholder decisions in terms of scale (e.g., household to State) and disaster phase (e.g., emergency response, recovery, and mitigation) allows us to align methods of stakeholder engagement with stakeholder decision making. For these regional-scale scenarios, the methods of engagement included stakeholder participation in project vision, scenario construction workshops, presentations, conferences, and emergency response and recovery exercises. Champions (self-motivated individuals who took on leadership roles in their communities or industrial sectors), customized and localized analyses, and workshops enhanced the use of hazard science. Examples from the two scenarios will be used to illustrate these points. We experienced several significant challenges in using science to enhance emergency management exercises and community decision making. Some of these challenges include 1) adapting scientific results to exercise format; 2) the special needs of recovery exercises, which can mimic response exercises only with limited success, because recovery is tactical while response is strategic; 3) staff turnover; and 4) limited resources. An important future direction will be to leverage our in-depth knowledge of scenarios, multi-disciplinary network, and stakeholder relations to integrate knowledge about multiple hazards to better inform risk-based decision making for all hazards.

Multi-criteria decision making in flood risk management: research progress and the challenge of handling uncertainty and stakeholder participation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Madruga de Brito, Mariana; Evers, Mariele

2016-04-01

Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) methods have received much attention from researchers and practitioners for solving flood risk management problems in the last decades due to its capacity to deal with multiple criteria, conflicting objectives as well as the knowledge arising from the participation of several actors. In order to consolidate recent research conducted in this area, this study presents a state-of-the-art literature review of MCDM applications to flood risk management, seeking to provide a better understanding of the current status of how participatory MCDM is being conducted and the way uncertainties are included in the decision-making process. Totally, 128 peer-reviewed papers published from 1995 to June 2015 in 72 different journals were systematically analyzed. Results indicated that the number of flood MCDM publications has exponentially grown during this period, with over 82% of all papers published since 2009. A wide range of application areas was identified, with most papers focusing on ranking alternatives for flood mitigation (22.78% of the total) followed by risk (21.11%) and vulnerability assessment (15%). The Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) was the most popular MCDM method (42.72%) followed by Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) (13.33%) and Weighted Sum Method (WSM) (12.73%). Although significant improvements have been made over the last decades, shortcomings remain in handling the uncertainty. Only eight papers (6.25%) have conducted uncertainty analysis, suggesting that a general procedure for performing it in MCDM does not yet exist. Researchers have applied the Monte Carlo simulation, Taylor's series error propagation method or assessed the uncertainty in qualitative ways, by describing its main sources or analyzing the stakeholders' degree of confidence. In addition, 35 articles (27.34%) have performed a sensitivity analysis of the criteria weights. Three distinct approaches were identified: one-way, global, and probabilistic sensitivity analysis. About half of the studies have acknowledged the involvement of multiple stakeholders. However, participation was fragmented and focused on particular stages of the decision-making process such as the elicitation of criteria weights. This segmentation may be related to methodological and time constraints since participatory decision making is time-consuming and costly. Policy makers and experts were the most participated stakeholders, with few papers considering the involvement of local community members. Another issue is that only four studies seek to obtain consensus and that decisions were often made by majority vote or averaging approaches. Therefore, greater rigor in addressing the uncertainties around stakeholders' judgments as well as in endorsing an active participation in all stages of the decision-making process should be undertaken in future applications. This could help to increase the quality of decisions and subsequent implementation of chosen measures.

A study on building data warehouse of hospital information system.

PubMed

Li, Ping; Wu, Tao; Chen, Mu; Zhou, Bin; Xu, Wei-guo

2011-08-01

Existing hospital information systems with simple statistical functions cannot meet current management needs. It is well known that hospital resources are distributed with private property rights among hospitals, such as in the case of the regional coordination of medical services. In this study, to integrate and make full use of medical data effectively, we propose a data warehouse modeling method for the hospital information system. The method can also be employed for a distributed-hospital medical service system. To ensure that hospital information supports the diverse needs of health care, the framework of the hospital information system has three layers: datacenter layer, system-function layer, and user-interface layer. This paper discusses the role of a data warehouse management system in handling hospital information from the establishment of the data theme to the design of a data model to the establishment of a data warehouse. Online analytical processing tools assist user-friendly multidimensional analysis from a number of different angles to extract the required data and information. Use of the data warehouse improves online analytical processing and mitigates deficiencies in the decision support system. The hospital information system based on a data warehouse effectively employs statistical analysis and data mining technology to handle massive quantities of historical data, and summarizes from clinical and hospital information for decision making. This paper proposes the use of a data warehouse for a hospital information system, specifically a data warehouse for the theme of hospital information to determine latitude, modeling and so on. The processing of patient information is given as an example that demonstrates the usefulness of this method in the case of hospital information management. Data warehouse technology is an evolving technology, and more and more decision support information extracted by data mining and with decision-making technology is required for further research.

Can Contrast Effects Regulate Emotions? A Follow-Up Study of Vital Loss Decisions

PubMed Central

Liu, Xianyun; Luo, Jing

2012-01-01

Although many studies focus on the how contrast effects can impact cognitive evaluations, the question of whether emotions are regulated by such contrast effects is still the subject of considerable debate, especially in the study of loss-related decisions. To address this gap in the literature, we designed three decision making loss conditions: (i) both losses are trivial (TT), (ii) one loss is trivial and the other loss is vital (TV), or (iii) one loss is trivial and the other loss is routine (TR). In study 1, which compared the difference between the negative emotion ratings in TT and TV, we found that negative emotions were affected by the contrast effects. In study 2, which compared the difference between the importance of trivial options in TT and TV, we found that the contrast effects differentially changed the importance of trivial options in the two conditions, which in turn down-regulated negative emotions. In study 3, the impact of decision difficulty was controlled by predetermining the items to be lost. In this study, we found that, when comparing the differences between the negative emotions of losing trivial options in TV and TR, the contrast effects still modulated the loss-related emotions. We concluded that the contrast effects could down-regulate emotions. To our knowledge, this is the first demonstration that contrast effects can alleviate negative affect in loss-related decision making. This study will enrich and extend the literature on emotion regulation theory, and it will provide a new cost-effective mitigation strategy for regulating negative emotions. PMID:22905170

Climate Change, Public Health, and Decision Support: The New Threat of Vector-borne Disease

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grant, F.; Kumar, S.

2011-12-01

Climate change and vector-borne diseases constitute a massive threat to human development. It will not be enough to cut emissions of greenhouse gases-the tide of the future has already been established. Climate change and vector-borne diseases are already undermining the world's efforts to reduce extreme poverty. It is in the best interests of the world leaders to think in terms of concerted global actions, but adaptation and mitigation must be accomplished within the context of local community conditions, resources, and needs. Failure to act will continue to consign developed countries to completely avoidable health risks and significant expense. Failure to act will also reduce poorest of the world's population-some 2.6 billion people-to a future of diminished opportunity. Northrop Grumman has taken significant steps forward to develop the tools needed to assess climate change impacts on public health, collect relevant data for decision making, model projections at regional and local levels; and, deliver information and knowledge to local and regional stakeholders. Supporting these tools is an advanced enterprise architecture consisting of high performance computing, GIS visualization, and standards-based architecture. To address current deficiencies in local planning and decision making with respect to regional climate change and its effect on human health, our research is focused on performing a dynamical downscaling with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to develop decision aids that translate the regional climate data into actionable information for users. For the present climate WRF was forced with the Max Planck Institute European Center/Hamburg Model version 5 (ECHAM5) General Circulation Model 20th century simulation. For the 21th century climate, we used an ECHAM5 simulation with the Special Report on Emissions (SRES) A1B emissions scenario. WRF was run in nested mode at spatial resolution of 108 km, 36 km and 12 km and 28 vertical levels. This model was examined relative to two mosquito vectors, both competent carriers of dengue fever, a viral, vector-borne disease. Models which incorporate public health considerations can enable decision makers to take proactive steps to mitigate the impacts and adapt to the changing environmental conditions. In this paper we provide a snapshot of our climate initiative and some examples relative to our public health practice work in vector-borne diseases to illustrate how integrated decision support could be of assistance to regional and local communities worldwide.

Impact of social preparedness on flood early warning systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Girons Lopez, M.; Di Baldassarre, G.; Seibert, J.

2017-01-01

Flood early warning systems play a major role in the disaster risk reduction paradigm as cost-effective methods to mitigate flood disaster damage. The connections and feedbacks between the hydrological and social spheres of early warning systems are increasingly being considered as key aspects for successful flood mitigation. The behavior of the public and first responders during flood situations, determined by their preparedness, is heavily influenced by many behavioral traits such as perceived benefits, risk awareness, or even denial. In this study, we use the recency of flood experiences as a proxy for social preparedness to assess its impact on the efficiency of flood early warning systems through a simple stylized model and implemented this model using a simple mathematical description. The main findings, which are based on synthetic data, point to the importance of social preparedness for flood loss mitigation, especially in circumstances where the technical forecasting and warning capabilities are limited. Furthermore, we found that efforts to promote and preserve social preparedness may help to reduce disaster-induced losses by almost one half. The findings provide important insights into the role of social preparedness that may help guide decision-making in the field of flood early warning systems.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of policy instruments for greenhouse gas emission mitigation in the agricultural sector.

PubMed

Bakam, Innocent; Balana, Bedru Babulo; Matthews, Robin

2012-12-15

Market-based policy instruments to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are generally considered more appropriate than command and control tools. However, the omission of transaction costs from policy evaluations and decision-making processes may result in inefficiency in public resource allocation and sub-optimal policy choices and outcomes. This paper aims to assess the relative cost-effectiveness of market-based GHG mitigation policy instruments in the agricultural sector by incorporating transaction costs. Assuming that farmers' responses to mitigation policies are economically rationale, an individual-based model is developed to study the relative performances of an emission tax, a nitrogen fertilizer tax, and a carbon trading scheme using farm data from the Scottish farm account survey (FAS) and emissions and transaction cost data from literature metadata survey. Model simulations show that none of the three schemes could be considered the most cost effective in all circumstances. The cost effectiveness depends both on the tax rate and the amount of free permits allocated to farmers. However, the emissions trading scheme appears to outperform both other policies in realistic scenarios. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Life cycle analysis of mitigation methodologies for railway rolling noise and groundbourne vibration.

PubMed

Tuler, Mariana Valente; Kaewunruen, Sakdirat

2017-04-15

Negative outcomes such as noise and vibration generated by railways have become a challenge for both industry and academia in order to guarantee that the railway system can accomplish its purposes and at the same time provide comfort for users and people living in the neighbourhood along the railway corridor. The research interest on this field has been increasing and the advancement in noise and vibration mitigation methodologies can be observed using various engineering techniques that are constantly put into test to solve such effects. In contrast, the life cycle analysis of the mitigation measures has not been thoroughly carried out. There is also a lack of detailed evaluation in the efficiency of various mechanisms for controlling rolling noise and ground-borne vibration. This research is thus focussed on the evaluation of materials used, the total cost associated with the maintenance of such the measures and the carbon footprint left for each type of mechanism. The insight into carbon footprint together with life cycle cost will benefit decision making process for the industry in the selection of optimal and suitable mechanism since the environmental impact is a growing concern around the world. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Strategic Environmental Assessment of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Options in the Canadian Agricultural Sector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noble, Bram F.; Christmas, Lisa M.

2008-01-01

This article presents a methodological framework for strategic environmental assessment (SEA) application. The overall objective is to demonstrate SEA as a systematic and structured policy, plan, and program (PPP) decision support tool. In order to accomplish this objective, a stakeholder-based SEA application to greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation policy options in Canadian agriculture is presented. Using a mail-out impact assessment exercise, agricultural producers and nonproducers from across the Canadian prairie region were asked to evaluate five competing GHG mitigation options against 13 valued environmental components (VECs). Data were analyzed using multi-criteria and exploratory analytical techniques. The results suggest considerable variation in perceived impacts and GHG mitigation policy preferences, suggesting that a blanket policy approach to GHG mitigation will create gainers and losers based on soil type and associate cropping and on-farm management practices. It is possible to identify a series of regional greenhouse gas mitigation programs that are robust, socially meaningful, and operationally relevant to both agricultural producers and policy decision makers. The assessment demonstrates the ability of SEA to address, in an operational sense, environmental problems that are characterized by conflicting interests and competing objectives and alternatives. A structured and systematic SEA methodology provides the necessary decision support framework for the consideration of impacts, and allows for PPPs to be assessed based on a much broader set of properties, objectives, criteria, and constraints whereas maintaining rigor and accountability in the assessment process.

California Earthquake Clearinghouse Crisis Information-Sharing Strategy in Support of Situational Awareness, Understanding Interdependencies of Critical Infrastructure, Regional Resilience, Preparedness, Risk Assessment/mitigation, Decision-Making and Everyday Operational Needs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosinski, A.; Morentz, J.; Beilin, P.

2017-12-01

The principal function of the California Earthquake Clearinghouse is to provide State and Federal disaster response managers, and the scientific and engineering communities, with prompt information on ground failure, structural damage, and other consequences from significant seismic events such as earthquakes and tsunamis. The overarching problem highlighted in discussions with Clearinghouse partners is the confusion and frustration of many of the Operational Area representatives, and some regional utilities throughout the state on what software applications they should be using and maintaining to meet State, Federal, and Local, requirements, and for what purposes, and how to deal with the limitations of these applications. This problem is getting in the way of making meaningful progress on developing multi-application interoperability and the necessary supporting cross-sector information-sharing procedures and dialogue on essential common operational information that entities need to share for different all hazards missions and related operational activities associated with continuity, security, and resilience. The XchangeCore based system the Clearinghouse is evolving helps deal with this problem, and does not compound it by introducing yet another end-user application; there is no end-user interface with which one views XchangeCore, all viewing of data provided through XchangeCore occurs in and on existing, third-party operational applications. The Clearinghouse efforts with XchangeCore are compatible with FEMA, which is currently using XchangeCore-provided data for regional and National Business Emergency Operations Center (source of business information sharing during emergencies) response. Also important, and should be emphasized, is that information-sharing is not just for response, but for preparedness, risk assessment/mitigation decision-making, and everyday operational needs for situational awareness. In other words, the benefits of the Clearinghouse information sharing efforts transcend emergency response. The Clearinghouse is in the process of developing an Information-Sharing System Guide and CONOPS/ templates, that should be aimed a multi-stakeholder, non-technical audience.

Impact of Real-world Factors Influencing Investment Decisions on the Costs and Distribution of Climate Change Mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Edmonds, J.; Iyer, G.; McJeon, H. C.; Leon, C.; Hultman, N.

2015-12-01

Strategies to mitigate dangerous anthropogenic climate change require a dramatic transformation of the energy system to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, that in turn requires large-scale investments. Investment decisions depend not only on investment capital availability but also on investment risks. A number of factors such as national policy environments, quality of public and private institutions, sector, firm and technology specific characteristics can affect investors' assessments of risks, leading to a wide variation in the business climate for investment. Such heterogeneity in investment risks can have important implications, as investors usually respond to risks by requiring higher returns for riskier projects; delaying or forgoing the investments; or preferring to invest in existing, familiar projects. We study the impact of variation in investment risks on regional patterns of emissions mitigation, the cost of emissions mitigation and patterns of technology deployment. We modify an integrated assessment model, widely used in global climate policy analyses (the Global Change Assessment Model) and incorporate decisions on investments based on risks along two dimensions. Along the first dimension, we vary perceived risks associated with particular technologies. To do so, we assign a higher cost of capital for investment in low-carbon technologies as these involve intrinsically higher levels of regulatory and market risk. The second dimension uses a proxy to vary investment risks across regions, based on an institutional quality metric published by the World Economic Forum. Explicit representation of investment risks has two major effects. First, it raises the cost of emissions mitigation relative to a world with uniform investment risks. Second, it shifts the pattern of emissions mitigation, with industrialized countries mitigating more, and developing countries mitigating less. Our results suggest that institutional reforms aimed at lowering investment risks could be an important element in lowering the cost of climate change mitigation solutions.

An object-oriented watershed management tool (QnD-VFS) to engage stakeholders in targeted implementation of filter strips in an arid surface irrigation area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Campo, M. A.; Perez-Ovilla, O.; Munoz-Carpena, R.; Kiker, G.; Ullman, J. L.

2012-12-01

Agricultural nonpoint source pollution cause the majority of the 1,224 different waterbodies failing to meet designated water use criteria in Washington. Although various best management practices (BMPs) are effective in mitigating agricultural pollutants, BMP placement is often haphazard and fails to address specific high-risk locations. Limited financial resources necessitate optimization of conservation efforts to meet water quality goals. Thus, there is a critical need to develop decision-making tools that target BMP implementation in order to maximize water quality protection. In addition to field parameters, it is essential to incorporate economic and social determinants in the decision-making process to encourage producer involvement. Decision-making tools that identify strategic pollution sources and integrate socio-economic factors will lead to more cost-effective water quality improvement, as well as encourage producer participation by incorporating real-world limitations. Therefore, this study examines vegetative filter strip use under different scenarios as a BMP to mitigate sediment and nutrients in the highly irrigated Yakima River Basin of central Washington. We developed QnD-VFS to integrate and visualize alternative, spatially-explicit, water management strategies and its economic impact. The QnDTM system was created as a decision education tool that incorporates management, economic, and socio- political issues in a user-friendly scenario framework. QnDTM, which incorporates elements of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) and risk assessment, is written in object-oriented Java and can be deployed as a stand-alone program or a web-accessed tool. The model performs Euler numerical integration of various rate transformation and mass-balance transfer equations. The novelty of this object-oriented approach is that these differential equations are detailed in modular XML format for instantiation within the Java code. This design allows many levels of complexity to be quickly designed and rendered in QnDTM without time-consuming additions of new Java code. Thus, temporal and spatial scales used in the equations become part of model development and iteration. A salient aspect is that QnDTM links spatial components within GIS (ArcInfo Shape) files to the abiotic (e.g., climate), biotic and chemical/contaminant interactions. QnD-VFS integrates environmental, management and socio-economic/cultural factors identified through stakeholder input. Several scenarios have been studied. Thus one of the main results show that changing water management, improved irrigation, is equivalent to changing length of vegetative filter strips, with a low economic impacts for farmers. Concurrently, these interactive tools allow resource managers to identify economic and social determinants that may impede conservation efforts.

The Roles of Science in Local Resilience Policy Development: A Case Study of Three U.S. Cities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clavin, C.; Gupta, N.

2015-12-01

The development and deployment of resilience policies within communities in the United States often respond to the place-based, hazard-specific nature of disasters. Prior to the onset of a disaster, municipal and regional decision makers establish long-term development policies, such as land use planning, infrastructure investment, and economic development policies. Despite the importance of incorporating disaster risk within community decision making, resilience and disaster risk are only one consideration community decision makers weigh when choosing how and whether to establish resilience policy. Using a case study approach, we examine the governance, organizational, management, and policy making processes and the involvement of scientific advice in designing and implementing resilience policy in three U.S. communities: Los Angeles, CA; Norfolk, VA; and Flagstaff, AZ. Disaster mitigation or resilience initiatives were developed and deployed in each community with differing levels and types of scientific engagement. Engagement spanned from providing technical support with traditional risk assessment to direct engagement with community decision makers and design of community resilience outreach. Best practices observed include embedding trusted, independent scientific advisors with strong community credibility within local government agencies, use of interdisciplinary and interdepartmental expert teams with management and technical skillsets, and establishing scientifically-informed disaster and hazard scenarios to enable community outreach. Case study evidence suggest science communication and engagement within and across municipal government agencies and scientifically-informed direct engagement with community stakeholders are effective approaches and roles that disaster risk scientists can fill to support resilience policy development.

Analyzing the carbon mitigation potential of tradable green certificates based on a TGC-FFSRO model: A case study in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, China.

PubMed

Chen, Cong; Zhu, Ying; Zeng, Xueting; Huang, Guohe; Li, Yongping

2018-07-15

Contradictions of increasing carbon mitigation pressure and electricity demand have been aggravated significantly. A heavy emphasis is placed on analyzing the carbon mitigation potential of electric energy systems via tradable green certificates (TGC). This study proposes a tradable green certificate (TGC)-fractional fuzzy stochastic robust optimization (FFSRO) model through integrating fuzzy possibilistic, two-stage stochastic and stochastic robust programming techniques into a linear fractional programming framework. The framework can address uncertainties expressed as stochastic and fuzzy sets, and effectively deal with issues of multi-objective tradeoffs between the economy and environment. The proposed model is applied to the major economic center of China, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. The generated results of proposed model indicate that a TGC mechanism is a cost-effective pathway to cope with carbon reduction and support the sustainable development pathway of electric energy systems. In detail, it can: (i) effectively promote renewable power development and reduce fossil fuel use; (ii) lead to higher CO 2 mitigation potential than non-TGC mechanism; and (iii) greatly alleviate financial pressure on the government to provide renewable energy subsidies. The TGC-FFSRO model can provide a scientific basis for making related management decisions of electric energy systems. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Health-Based Metric for Evaluating the Effectiveness of Noise Barrier Mitigation Associated With Transport Infrastructure Noise.

PubMed

Prendergast, Geoffrey P; Staff, Michael

2017-01-01

This study examines the use of the number of night-time sleep disturbances as a health-based metric to assess the cost effectiveness of rail noise mitigation strategies for situations, wherein high-intensity noises dominate such as freight train pass-bys and wheel squeal. Twenty residential properties adjacent to the existing and proposed rail tracks in a noise catchment area of the Epping to Thornleigh Third Track project were used as a case study. Awakening probabilities were calculated for individual's awakening 1, 3 and 5 times a night when subjected to 10 independent freight train pass-by noise events using internal maximum sound pressure levels (LAFmax). Awakenings were predicted using a random intercept multivariate logistic regression model. With source mitigation in place, the majority of the residents were still predicted to be awoken at least once per night (median 88.0%), although substantial reductions in the median probabilities of awakening three and five times per night from 50.9 to 29.4% and 9.2 to 2.7%, respectively, were predicted. This resulted in a cost-effective estimate of 7.6-8.8 less people being awoken at least three times per night per A$1 million spent on noise barriers. The study demonstrates that an easily understood metric can be readily used to assist making decisions related to noise mitigation for large-scale transport projects.

A Methodology to Support Decision Making in Flood Plan Mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biscarini, C.; di Francesco, S.; Manciola, P.

2009-04-01

The focus of the present document is on specific decision-making aspects of flood risk analysis. A flood is the result of runoff from rainfall in quantities too great to be confined in the low-water channels of streams. Little can be done to prevent a major flood, but we may be able to minimize damage within the flood plain of the river. This broad definition encompasses many possible mitigation measures. Floodplain management considers the integrated view of all engineering, nonstructural, and administrative measures for managing (minimizing) losses due to flooding on a comprehensive scale. The structural measures are the flood-control facilities designed according to flood characteristics and they include reservoirs, diversions, levees or dikes, and channel modifications. Flood-control measures that modify the damage susceptibility of floodplains are usually referred to as nonstructural measures and may require minor engineering works. On the other hand, those measures designed to modify the damage potential of permanent facilities are called non-structural and allow reducing potential damage during a flood event. Technical information is required to support the tasks of problem definition, plan formulation, and plan evaluation. The specific information needed and the related level of detail are dependent on the nature of the problem, the potential solutions, and the sensitivity of the findings to the basic information. Actions performed to set up and lay out the study are preliminary to the detailed analysis. They include: defining the study scope and detail, the field data collection, a review of previous studies and reports, and the assembly of needed maps and surveys. Risk analysis can be viewed as having many components: risk assessment, risk communication and risk management. Risk assessment comprises an analysis of the technical aspects of the problem, risk communication deals with conveying the information and risk management involves the decision process. In the present paper we propose a novel methodology for supporting the priority setting in the assessment of such issues, beyond the typical "expected value" approach. Scientific contribution and management aspects are merged to create a simplified method for plan basin implementation, based on risk and economic analyses. However, the economic evaluation is not the sole criterion for flood-damage reduction plan selection. Among the different criteria that are relevant to the decision process, safety and quality of human life, economic damage, expenses related with the chosen measures and environmental issues should play a fundamental role on the decisions made by the authorities. Some numerical indices, taking in account administrative, technical, economical and risk aspects, are defined and are combined together in a mathematical formula that defines a Priority Index (PI). In particular, the priority index defines a ranking of priority interventions, thus allowing the formulation of the investment plan. The research is mainly focused on the technical factors of risk assessment, providing quantitative and qualitative estimates of possible alternatives, containing measures of the risk associated with those alternatives. Moreover, the issues of risk management are analyzed, in particular with respect to the role of decision making in the presence of risk information. However, a great effort is devoted to make this index easy to be formulated and effective to allow a clear and transparent comparison between the alternatives. Summarizing this document describes a major- steps for incorporation of risk analysis into the decision making process: framing of the problem in terms of risk analysis, application of appropriate tools and techniques to obtain quantified results, use of the quantified results in the choice of structural and non-structural measures. In order to prove the reliability of the proposed methodology and to show how risk-based information can be incorporated into a flood analysis process, its application to some middle italy river basins is presented. The methodology assessment is performed by comparing different scenarios and showing that the optimal decision stems from a feasibility evaluation.

Uncertainties in hydrological extremes projections and its effects on decision-making processes in an Amazonian sub-basin.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andres Rodriguez, Daniel; Garofolo, Lucas; Lazaro Siqueira Junior, Jose

2013-04-01

Uncertainties in Climate Change projections are affected by irreducible uncertainties due to knowledge's limitations, chaotic nature of climate system and human decision-making process. Such uncertainties affect the impact studies, complicating the decision-making process aimed at mitigation and adaptation. However, these uncertainties allow the possibility to develop exploratory analyses on system's vulnerability to different sceneries. Through these kinds of analyses it is possible to identify critical issues, which must be deeper studied. For this study we used several future's projections from General Circulation Models to feed a Hydrological Model, applied to the Amazonian sub-basin of Ji-Paraná. Hydrological Model integrations are performed for present historical time (1970-1990) and for future period (2010-2100). Extreme values analyses are performed to each simulated time series and results are compared with extremes events in present time. A simple approach to identify potential vulnerabilities consists of evaluating the hydrologic system response to climate variability and extreme events observed in the past, comparing them with the conditions projected for the future. Thus it is possible to identify critical issues that need attention and more detailed studies. For the goal of this work, we used socio-economic data from Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics, the Operator of the National Electric System, the Brazilian National Water Agency and scientific and press published information. This information is used to characterize impacts associated to extremes hydrological events in the basin during the present historical time and to evaluate potential impacts in the future face to the different hydrological projections. Results show inter-model variability results in a broad dispersion on projected extreme's values. The impact of such dispersion is differentiated for different aspects of socio-economic and natural systems and must be carefully addressed in order to help in decision-making processes.

Human Decision Processes: Implications for SSA Support Tools

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Picciano, P.

2013-09-01

Despite significant advances in computing power and artificial intelligence (AI), few critical decisions are made without a human decision maker in the loop. Space Situational Awareness (SSA) missions are both critical and complex, typically adhering to the human-in-the-loop (HITL) model. The collection of human operators injects a needed diversity of expert knowledge, experience, and authority required to successfully fulfill SSA tasking. A wealth of literature on human decision making exists citing myriad empirical studies and offering a varied set of prescriptive and descriptive models of judgment and decision making (Hastie & Dawes, 2001; Baron, 2000). Many findings have been proven sufficiently robust to allow information architects or system/interface designers to take action to improve decision processes. For the purpose of discussion, these concepts are bifurcated in two groups: 1) vulnerabilities to mitigate, and 2) capabilities to augment. These vulnerabilities and capabilities refer specifically to the decision process and should not be confused with a shortcoming or skill of a specific human operator. Thus the framing of questions and orders, the automated tools with which to collaborate, priming and contextual data, and the delivery of information all play a critical role in human judgment and choice. Evaluating the merits of any decision can be elusive; in order to constrain this discussion, ‘rational choice' will tend toward the economic model characteristics such as maximizing utility and selection consistency (e.g., if A preferred to B, and B preferred to C, than A should be preferred to C). Simple decision models often encourage one to list the pros and cons of a decision, perhaps use a weighting schema, but one way or another weigh the future benefit (or harm) of making a selection. The result (sought by the rationalist models) should drive toward higher utility. Despite notable differences in researchers' theses (to be discussed in the full paper), one opinion shared is that the rational, economic, deliberate listing/evaluation of all options is NOT representative of how many decision are made. A framework gaining interest lately describes two systems predominantly at work: intuition and reasoning (Kahneman, 2003). Intuition is fast, automatic, and parallel contrasted with the more effortful, deliberative, and sequential reasoning. One of the issues of contention is that considerable research is stacked supporting both sides claiming that intuition is: • A hallmark of expertise responsible for rapid, optimal decisions in the face of adversity • A vulnerability where biases serve as decision traps leading to wrong choices Using seminal studies from a range of domains and tasking, potential solutions for SSA decision support will be offered. Important issues such as managing uncertainty, framing inquiries, and information architecture, and contextual cues will be discussed. The purpose is to provide awareness of the human limitations and capabilities in complex decision making so engineers and designers can consider such factors in their development of SSA tools.

End-User Applications of Real-Time Earthquake Information in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cua, G. B.; Gasparini, P.; Giardini, D.; Zschau, J.; Filangieri, A. R.; Reakt Wp7 Team

2011-12-01

The primary objective of European FP7 project REAKT (Strategies and Tools for Real-Time Earthquake Risk Reduction) is to improve the efficiency of real-time earthquake risk mitigation methods and their capability of protecting structures, infrastructures, and populations. REAKT aims to address the issues of real-time earthquake hazard and response from end-to-end, with efforts directed along the full spectrum of methodology development in earthquake forecasting, earthquake early warning, and real-time vulnerability systems, through optimal decision-making, and engagement and cooperation of scientists and end users for the establishment of best practices for use of real-time information. Twelve strategic test cases/end users throughout Europe have been selected. This diverse group of applications/end users includes civil protection authorities, railway systems, hospitals, schools, industrial complexes, nuclear plants, lifeline systems, national seismic networks, and critical structures. The scale of target applications covers a wide range, from two school complexes in Naples, to individual critical structures, such as the Rion Antirion bridge in Patras, and the Fatih Sultan Mehmet bridge in Istanbul, to large complexes, such as the SINES industrial complex in Portugal and the Thessaloniki port area, to distributed lifeline and transportation networks and nuclear plants. Some end-users are interested in in-depth feasibility studies for use of real-time information and development of rapid response plans, while others intend to install real-time instrumentation and develop customized automated control systems. From the onset, REAKT scientists and end-users will work together on concept development and initial implementation efforts using the data products and decision-making methodologies developed with the goal of improving end-user risk mitigation. The aim of this scientific/end-user partnership is to ensure that scientific efforts are applicable to operational, real-world problems.

Defining, Measuring, and Incentivizing Sustainable Land Use to Meet Human Needs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nicholas, K. A.; Brady, M. V.; Olin, S.; Ekroos, J.; Hall, M.; Seaquist, J. W.; Lehsten, V.; Smith, H.

2016-12-01

Land is a natural capital that supports the flow of an enormous amount of ecosystem services critical to human welfare. Sustainable land use, which we define as land use that meets both current and future human needs for ecosystem services, is essential to meet global goals for climate mitigation and sustainable development, while maintaining natural capital. However, it is not clear what governance is needed to achieve sustainable land use under multiple goals (as defined by the values of relevant decision-makers and land managers), particularly under climate change. Here we develop a conceptual model for examining the interactions and tradeoffs among multiple goals, as well as their spatial interactions (teleconnections), in research developed using Design Thinking principles. We have selected five metrics for provisioning (food production, and fiber production for wood and energy), regulating and maintenance (climate mitigation and biodiversity conservation), and cultural (heritage) ecosystem services. Using the case of Sweden, we estimate indicators for these metrics using a combination of existing data synthesis and process-based simulation modeling. We also develop and analyze new indicators (e.g., combining data on land use, bird conservation status, and habitat specificity to make a predictive model of bird diversity changes on agricultural or forested land). Our results highlight both expected tradeoffs (e.g., between food production and biodiversity conservation) as well as unexpected opportunities for synergies under different land management scenarios and strategies. Our model also provides a practical way to make decision-maker values explicit by comparing both quantity and preferences for bundles of ecosystem services under various scenarios. We hope our model will help in considering competing interests and shaping economic incentives and governance structures to meet national targets in support of global goals for sustainable management of land-based ecosystem services.

An intuitionistic fuzzy multi-objective non-linear programming model for sustainable irrigation water allocation under the combination of dry and wet conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Mo; Fu, Qiang; Singh, Vijay P.; Ma, Mingwei; Liu, Xiao

2017-12-01

Water scarcity causes conflicts among natural resources, society and economy and reinforces the need for optimal allocation of irrigation water resources in a sustainable way. Uncertainties caused by natural conditions and human activities make optimal allocation more complex. An intuitionistic fuzzy multi-objective non-linear programming (IFMONLP) model for irrigation water allocation under the combination of dry and wet conditions is developed to help decision makers mitigate water scarcity. The model is capable of quantitatively solving multiple problems including crop yield increase, blue water saving, and water supply cost reduction to obtain a balanced water allocation scheme using a multi-objective non-linear programming technique. Moreover, it can deal with uncertainty as well as hesitation based on the introduction of intuitionistic fuzzy numbers. Consideration of the combination of dry and wet conditions for water availability and precipitation makes it possible to gain insights into the various irrigation water allocations, and joint probabilities based on copula functions provide decision makers an average standard for irrigation. A case study on optimally allocating both surface water and groundwater to different growth periods of rice in different subareas in Heping irrigation area, Qing'an County, northeast China shows the potential and applicability of the developed model. Results show that the crop yield increase target especially in tillering and elongation stages is a prevailing concern when more water is available, and trading schemes can mitigate water supply cost and save water with an increased grain output. Results also reveal that the water allocation schemes are sensitive to the variation of water availability and precipitation with uncertain characteristics. The IFMONLP model is applicable for most irrigation areas with limited water supplies to determine irrigation water strategies under a fuzzy environment.

Space Environments and Effects Concept: Transitioning Research to Operations and Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Edwards, David L.; Spann, James; Burns, Howard D.; Schumacher, Dan

2012-01-01

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is embarking on a course to expand human presence beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO) while expanding its mission to explore the solar system. Destinations such as Near Earth Asteroids (NEA), Mars and its moons, and the outer planets are but a few of the mission targets. NASA has established numerous offices specializing in specific space environments disciplines that will serve to enable these missions. To complement these existing discipline offices, a concept focusing on the development of space environment and effects application is presented. This includes space climate, space weather, and natural and induced space environments. This space environment and effects application is composed of 4 topic areas; characterization and modeling, engineering effects, prediction and operation, and mitigation and avoidance. These topic areas are briefly described below. Characterization and modeling of space environments will primarily focus on utilization during Program mission concept, planning, and design phases. Engineering effects includes materials testing and flight experiments producing data to be used in mission planning and design phases. Prediction and operation pulls data from existing sources into decision-making tools and empirical data sets to be used during the operational phase of a mission. Mitigation and avoidance will develop techniques and strategies used in the design and operations phases of the mission. The goal of this space environment and effects application is to develop decision-making tools and engineering products to support the mission phases of mission concept through operations by focusing on transitioning research to operations. Products generated by this space environments and effects application are suitable for use in anomaly investigations. This paper will outline the four topic areas, describe the need, and discuss an organizational structure for this space environments and effects application.

An operational hydrological ensemble prediction system for the city of Zurich (Switzerland): assessing the added value of probabilistic forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Addor, N.; Jaun, S.; Fundel, F.; Zappa, M.

2012-04-01

The Sihl River flows through Zurich, Switzerland's most populated city, for which it represents the largest flood threat. To anticipate extreme discharge events and provide decision support in case of flood risk, a hydrometeorological ensemble prediction system (HEPS) was launched operationally in 2008. This model chain relies on deterministic (COSMO-7) and probabilistic (COSMO-LEPS) atmospheric forecasts, which are used to force a semi-distributed hydrological model (PREVAH) coupled to a hydraulic model (FLORIS). The resulting hydrological forecasts are eventually communicated to the stakeholders involved in the Sihl discharge management. This fully operational setting provides a real framework with which we assessed the potential of deterministic and probabilistic discharge forecasts for flood mitigation. To study the suitability of HEPS for small-scale basins and to quantify the added value conveyed by the probability information, a 31-month reforecast was produced for the Sihl catchment (336 km2). Several metrics support the conclusion that the performance gain is of up to 2 days lead time for the catchment considered. Brier skill scores show that probabilistic hydrological forecasts outperform their deterministic counterparts for all the lead times and event intensities considered. The small size of the Sihl catchment does not prevent skillful discharge forecasts, but makes them particularly dependent on correct precipitation forecasts. Our evaluation stresses that the capacity of the model to provide confident and reliable mid-term probability forecasts for high discharges is limited. We finally highlight challenges for making decisions on the basis of hydrological predictions, and discuss the need for a tool to be used in addition to forecasts to compare the different mitigation actions possible in the Sihl catchment.

Developing a Framework to Link Catchment Modelling tools to Decision Support Systems for Catchment Management and Planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adams, Russell; Owen, Gareth

2015-04-01

Over the past few years a series of catchment monitoring studies in the UK have developed a wide range of tools to enable managers and planners to make informed decisions to target several key outcomes. These outcomes include the mitigation of diffuse pollution and the reduction of flood risk. Good progress has been but additional steps are still required to link together more detailed models that represent catchment processes with the decision support systems (often termed matrices; i.e. DSMs) which form the basis of these planning and management tools. Examples include: (i) the FARM tools developed by the PROACTIVE team at Newcastle University to assess different catchment management options for mitigating against flooding events, (ii) TOPMANAGE, a suite of algorithms that link with high resolution DEMs to enable surface flow pathways, having the potential to be mitigated by Natural Flood Management (NFM) features (in order to target diffuse pollution due to nutrients and sediments) to be identified. To date, these DSMs have not been underpinned by models that can be run in real-time to quantify the benefits in terms of measurable reductions in flood or nutrient pollution risks. Their use has therefore been mostly as qualitative assessment tools. This study aims to adapt an existing spreadsheet-based model, the CRAFT, in order for it to become fully coupled to a DSM approach. Previous catchment scale applications of the CRAFT have focussed on meso-scale studies where any management interventions at a local scale are unlikely to be detectable at the monitoring point (the catchment outlet). The model has however been reasonably successful in identifying potential flow and transport pathways that link the headwater subcatchments to the outlet. Furthermore, recent enhancements to the model enable features such as sedimentation ponds and lagoons that can trap and remove nutrients and sediments to be added, once data become available from different types of NFM features to parameterise these. The model can be used to investigate runoff attenuation (in this case primarily through a lagged routing term applied to surface runoff) as a result of implementing mitigation measures. However to be fully integrated within a DSM framework requires the CRAFT to be linked to a user-friendly interface that will allow the user to modify key parameters, preferably using a web-based expert system, which will be explored further.

Strategic Planning for Drought Mitigation Under Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cai, X.; Zeng, R.; Valocchi, A. J.; Song, J.

2012-12-01

Droughts continue to be a major natural hazard and mounting evidence of global warming confronts society with a pressing question: Will climate change aggravate the risk of drought at local scale? It is important to explore what additional risk will be imposed by climate change and what level of strategic measures should be undertaken now to avoid vulnerable situations in the future, given that tactical measures may not avoid large damage. This study addresses the following key questions on strategic planning for drought mitigation under climate change: What combination of strategic and tactical measures will move the societal system response from a vulnerable situation to a resilient one with minimum cost? Are current infrastructures and their operation enough to mitigate the damage of future drought, or do we need in-advance infrastructure expansion for future drought preparedness? To address these questions, this study presents a decision support framework based on a coupled simulation and optimization model. A quasi-physically based watershed model is established for the Frenchman Creek Basin (FCB), part of the Republic River Basin, where groundwater based irrigation plays a significant role in agriculture production and local hydrological cycle. The physical model is used to train a statistical surrogate model, which predicts the watershed responses under future climate conditions. The statistical model replaces the complex physical model in the simulation-optimization framework, which makes the models computationally tractable. Decisions for drought preparedness include traditional short-term tactical measures (e.g. facility operation) and long-term or in-advance strategic measures, which require capital investment. A scenario based three-stage stochastic optimization model assesses the roles of strategic measures and tactical measures in drought preparedness and mitigation. Two benchmark climate prediction horizons, 2040s and 2090s, represent mid-term and long-term planning, respectively, compared to the baseline of the climate of 1980-2000. To handle uncertainty in climate change projections, outputs from three General Circulation Models (GCMs) with Regional Climate Model (RCM) for dynamic downscaling (PCM-RCM, Hadley-RCM, and CCSM-RCM) and four CO2 emission scenarios are used to represent the various possible climatic conditions in the mid-term (2040's) and long-term (2090's) time horizons. The model results show the relative roles of mid- and long-term investments and the complementary relationships between wait-and-see decisions and here-and-now decisions on infrastructure expansion. Even the best tactical measures (irrigation operation) alone are not sufficient for drought mitigation in the future. Infrastructure expansion is critical especially for environmental conversation purposes. With increasing budget, investment should be shifted from tactical measures to strategic measures for drought preparedness. Infrastructure expansion is preferred for the long term plan than the mid-term plan, i.e., larger investment is proposed in 2040s than the current, due to a larger likelihood of drought in 2090s than 2040s. Thus larger BMP expansion is proposed in 2040s for droughts preparedness in 2090s.

Conflicting Values: A Case Study in Patient Choice and Caregiver Perspectives.

PubMed

Eves, Margot M; Danziger, Phoebe Day; Farrell, Ruth M; Cole, Cristie M

2015-01-01

Decisions related to births in the "gray zone" of periviability are particularly challenging. Despite published management guidelines, clinicians and families struggle to negotiate care management plans. Stakeholders must reconcile conflicting values in the context of evolving circumstances with a high degree of uncertainty within a short time period. Even skilled clinicians may struggle to guide the patient in making value-laden decisions without imposing their own values. Exploring the experiences of one pregnant woman and her caregivers, this case study highlights how bias may undermine caregivers' ability to meet their obligation to enhance patient autonomy and the moral distress they may experience when a patient's values do not align with their own. Management strategies to mitigate the potential impact of bias and related moral distress are identified. The authors then describe one management strategy used in this case, facilitated ethics consultation, which is focused on thoughtful consideration of the patient's perspective.

Evolution of vulnerability of communities facing repeated hazards

PubMed Central

Guikema, Seth D.; Zhu, Laiyin; Igusa, Takeru

2017-01-01

The decisions that individuals make when recovering from and adapting to repeated hazards affect a region’s vulnerability in future hazards. As such, community vulnerability is not a static property but rather a dynamic property dependent on behavioral responses to repeated hazards and damage. This paper is the first of its kind to build a framework that addresses the complex interactions between repeated hazards, regional damage, mitigation decisions, and community vulnerability. The framework enables researchers and regional planners to visualize and quantify how a community could evolve over time in response to repeated hazards under various behavioral scenarios. An illustrative example using parcel-level data from Anne Arundel County, Maryland—a county that experiences fairly frequent hurricanes—is presented to illustrate the methodology and to demonstrate how the interplay between individual choices and regional vulnerability is affected by the region’s hurricane experience. PMID:28953893

Multicriteria analysis for the selection of the most appropriate energy crops: the case of Cyprus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kylili, Angeliki; Christoforou, Elias; Fokaides, Paris A.; Polycarpou, Polycarpos

2016-01-01

Energy crops are considered key actors in meeting the international and European carbon reduction targets, increasing the national energy security through renewable energy production, mitigating climate change impacts, and promoting sustainability. Multicriteria analysis is a suitable decision-making tool for the energy sector, where the final decisions have to consider for a range of aspects, and can be utilised as well for deciding on appropriate energy crops. In this paper, a popular multicriteria method, PROMETHEE, is employed for the identification of the most optimal energy crops for their exploitation in Cyprus. The criteria and the weights of each are defined, and accordingly five different scenarios are developed and examined. The obtained results indicated that the promotion of second-generation energy crops is more ideal in terms of the set objectives, as well as more sustainable than the exploitation of any first-generation energy crop.

Impact of Risk Perception on Risk Communication and Community Resilience Enhancement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frazier, T. G.; Thompson, C. M.

2014-12-01

Past studies have demonstrated there is a relationship between risk perception, risk tolerance and mitigation planning. When people experience high-risk perception, their risk tolerance is typically lowered causing them to become more likely to support the implementation of mitigation policies including those that are either cost intensive or politically controversial. Understanding stakeholder risk perception could therefore provide information about the likelihood of implementation of various mitigation strategies. Varied risk communication methods are needed to accurately represent community risk so as to better inform decision-making. In response to this need, this research examines the effect of risk perception on community resilience through a case study of Fernan Lake, ID. Researchers conducted a survey of Fernan Lake residents to determine their risk perception of the impact of blue-green algae blooms on community resilience. Survey questions were developed based on traditional risk perception factors like vested interest, social trust, knowledge, possible benefits or losses, relevance to individual and potential for control. The results were used to determine residents' risk perception of the impact of blue green algae blooms on Socio-Ecological System resource availability and future development and growth potential. Focus groups were then conducted to validate the survey results. Research results demonstrate that residents are concerned about the impacts of blue-green algae blooms, but the level of interest in acting on those concerns and their willingness to consider more aggressive mitigation strategies varies across the study area. This research demonstrates the need for varied risk communication approaches, depending upon community mitigation goals.

Predicting Airspace Capacity Impacts Using the Consolidated Storm Prediction for Aviation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Russell, Carl

2010-01-01

Convective weather is currently the largest contributor to air traffic delays in the United States. In order to make effective traffic flow management decisions to mitigate these delays, weather forecasts must be made as early and as accurately as possible. A forecast product that could be used to mitigate convective weather impacts is the Consolidated Storm Prediction for Aviation. This product provides forecasts of cloud water content and convective top heights at 0- to 8-hour look-ahead times. The objective of this study was to examine a method of predicting the impact of convective weather on air traffic sector capacities using these forecasts. Polygons representing forecast convective weather were overlaid at multiple flight levels on a sector map to calculate the fraction of each sector covered by weather. The fractional volume coverage was used as the primary metric to determine convection s impact on sectors. Results reveal that the forecasts can be used to predict the probability and magnitude of weather impacts on sector capacity up to eight hours in advance.

Software Defined Networking challenges and future direction: A case study of implementing SDN features on OpenStack private cloud

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shamugam, Veeramani; Murray, I.; Leong, J. A.; Sidhu, Amandeep S.

2016-03-01

Cloud computing provides services on demand instantly, such as access to network infrastructure consisting of computing hardware, operating systems, network storage, database and applications. Network usage and demands are growing at a very fast rate and to meet the current requirements, there is a need for automatic infrastructure scaling. Traditional networks are difficult to automate because of the distributed nature of their decision making process for switching or routing which are collocated on the same device. Managing complex environments using traditional networks is time-consuming and expensive, especially in the case of generating virtual machines, migration and network configuration. To mitigate the challenges, network operations require efficient, flexible, agile and scalable software defined networks (SDN). This paper discuss various issues in SDN and suggests how to mitigate the network management related issues. A private cloud prototype test bed was setup to implement the SDN on the OpenStack platform to test and evaluate the various network performances provided by the various configurations.

Social information processing, subtypes of violence, and a progressive construction of culpability and punishment in juvenile justice.

PubMed

Fontaine, Reid Griffith

2008-01-01

Consistent with core principles of liberal theories of punishment (including humane treatment of offenders, respecting offender rights, parsimony, penal proportionality, and rehabilitation), progressive frameworks have sought to expand doctrines of mitigation and excuse in order to reduce culpability and punishment. With respect to juvenile justice, scholars have proposed that doctrinal mitigation be broadened, and that adolescents, due to aspects of developmental immaturity (such as decision-making capacity), be punished less severely than adults who commit the same crimes. One model of adolescent antisocial behavior that may be useful to a progressive theory of punishment in juvenile justice distinguishes between instrumental violence, by which the actor behaves thoughtfully and calmly to achieve personal gain, and reactive violence, which is characterized as impulsive, emotional retaliation toward a perceived threat or injustice. In particular, social cognitive differences between instrumental and reactive violence have implications for responsibility, length and structure of incarceration, rehabilitation, and other issues that are central to a progressive theory of juvenile culpability and punishment.

Climate Change Impacts on the Built Environment in the United States and Implications for Sustainability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Quattrochi, Dale A.

2012-01-01

As an integral part of the National Climate Assessment (NCA), technical assessment reports for 13 regions in the U.S. that describe the scientific rationale to support climate change impacts within the purview of these regions, and provide adaptation or mitigation measures in response to these impacts. These technical assessments focus on climate change impacts on sectors that are important environmental, biophysical, and social and economic aspects of sustainability within the U.S.: Climate change science, Ecosystems and biodiversity, Water resources, Human health, Energy supply and use, Water/energy/land use, Transportation, Urban/infrastructure/vulnerability, Agriculture, Impacts of climate change on tribal/indigenous and native lands and resources, Forestry, Land use/land cover change, Rural communities development, and Impacts on biogeochemical cycles, with implications for ecosystems and biodiversity. There is a critical and timely need for the development of mitigation and adaptation strategies in response to climate change by the policy and decision making communities, to insure resiliency and sustainability of the built environment in the future.

Vulnerability of port and harbor communities to earthquake and tsunami hazards: The use of GIS in community hazard planning

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wood, Nathan J.; Good, James W.

2004-01-01

AbstractEarthquakes and tsunamis pose significant threats to Pacific Northwest coastal port and harbor communities. Developing holistic mitigation and preparedness strategies to reduce the potential for loss of life and property damage requires community-wide vulnerability assessments that transcend traditional site-specific analyses. The ability of a geographic information system (GIS) to integrate natural, socioeconomic, and hazards information makes it an ideal assessment tool to support community hazard planning efforts. This article summarizes how GIS was used to assess the vulnerability of an Oregon port and harbor community to earthquake and tsunami hazards, as part of a larger risk-reduction planning initiative. The primary purposes of the GIS were to highlight community vulnerability issues and to identify areas that both are susceptible to hazards and contain valued port and harbor community resources. Results of the GIS analyses can help decision makers with limited mitigation resources set priorities for increasing community resiliency to natural hazards.

Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerabilities and Adaption Measures for Egypt's Nile Delta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abutaleb, Khaled Abubakr Ali; Mohammed, Asmaa Hassan El-Sayed; Ahmed, Mahmoud H. Mohamed

2018-04-01

During the last few decades there has been growing concern about the impacts of climate change. A significant number of institutions, research centers, universities and governments have funded projects in addition to work done by independent scholars and assessors studying this phenomenon, in particular, to identify vulnerability, mitigation and adaptation against associated risks. Egypt is among the international community which took part in numerous studies, research activities, conferences, seminars and meetings attempting to address climate change and its associated risks. Egypt is particularly concerned with the threat to the Nile Delta as it is considered a low-lying land at high risk. The aim of this paper is to review current and previous projects, technical reports and pilot studies, concerning risk assessments, mitigation, and adaptation strategies for climate change in Egypt. This, in turn, will aid in decision making regarding future funding and establishing of research related to climate change in Egypt. This paper will also highlight the weaknesses and strengths of policymakers solely relying on one or more of these studies.

Public engagement in climate change - Disjunctions, tensions and blind spots in the UK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Höppner, C.

2009-11-01

There is much talk about engaging the public in climate change mitigation and adaptation in the UK and elsewhere. Governments rush to demand greater engagement of the public in tackling climate change and delivering sustainable futures. The importance that public engagement has gained as part of the UK climate agenda begs the questions of what is actually behind this call and what are the implications. This paper analyses the rationale for public engagement as enshrined in major policy documents. This rationale is clearly instrumental in that citizens are expected to engage by adopting the 'right attitude', by performing prescribed behaviours, and by consenting to proposed measures. Using recent cases of climate change mitigation and adaptation practice the paper discusses the implications of such an approach to public engagement. The paper concludes that until the manifold disjunctions between climate related policy agendas and their rationales for engagement are explicitly addressed citizen engagement will be serving incumbent interests rather than contributing to socially sustainable and democratic decision-making

Dealing with the white death: avalanche risk management for traffic routes.

PubMed

Rheinberger, Christoph M; Bründl, Michael; Rhyner, Jakob

2009-01-01

This article discusses mitigation strategies to protect traffic routes from snow avalanches. Up to now, mitigation of snow avalanches on many roads and railways in the Alps has relied on avalanche sheds, which require large initial investments resulting in high opportunity costs. Therefore, avalanche risk managers have increasingly adopted organizational mitigation measures such as warning systems and closure policies instead. The effectiveness of these measures is, however, greatly dependent on human decisions. In this article, we present a method for optimizing avalanche mitigation for traffic routes in terms of both their risk reduction impact and their net benefit to society. First, we introduce a generic framework for assessing avalanche risk and for quantifying the impact of mitigation. This allows for sound cost-benefit comparisons between alternative mitigation strategies. Second, we illustrate the framework with a case study from Switzerland. Our findings suggest that site-specific characteristics of avalanche paths, as well as the economic importance of a traffic route, are decisive for the choice of optimal mitigation strategies. On routes endangered by few avalanche paths with frequent avalanche occurrences, structural measures are most efficient, whereas reliance on organizational mitigation is often the most appropriate strategy on routes endangered by many paths with infrequent or fuzzy avalanche risk. Finally, keeping a traffic route open may be very important for tourism or the transport industry. Hence, local economic value may promote the use of a hybrid strategy that combines organizational and structural measures to optimize the resource allocation of avalanche risk mitigation.

Buspirone Reduces Sexual Risk-Taking Intent but not Cocaine Self-Administration

PubMed Central

Bolin, B. Levi; Lile, Joshua A.; Marks, Katherine R.; Beckmann, Joshua S.; Rush, Craig R.; Stoops, William W.

2016-01-01

Impulsive sexual decision-making may underlie sexual risk-taking behavior that contributes to the disproportionately high prevalence of HIV infection among cocaine users. Delay-discounting procedures measure impulsive decision-making and may provide insight into the underlying mechanisms of sexual risk-taking behavior. The anxiolytic drug buspirone reduces delay discounting in rats and blunts the reinforcing effects of cocaine in some preclinical studies suggesting that it might have utility in the treatment of cocaine-use disorders. This study determined whether buspirone mitigates impulsive risky sexual decision-making in cocaine users on a sexual delay-discounting procedure. The effects of buspirone maintenance on the abuse-related and physiological effects of cocaine were also tested. Nine (N = 9) current cocaine users completed a repeated-measures, inpatient protocol in which sexual delay discounting was assessed following three days of maintenance on placebo and buspirone (30 mg/day) in counterbalanced order. The reinforcing, subject-rated, and physiological effects of placebo and intranasal cocaine (15 and 45 mg) were also assessed during buspirone and placebo maintenance. Buspirone increased the likelihood of condom use for hypothetical sexual partners that were categorized as most likely to have a sexually transmitted infection and least sexually desirable. Cocaine functioned as a reinforcer and increased positive subjective effects ratings, but buspirone maintenance did not impact these effects of cocaine. Buspirone was also safe and tolerable when combined with cocaine and may have blunted some its cardiovascular effects. The results from the sexual delay-discounting procedure indicate that buspirone may reduce preference for riskier sex in cocaine users. PMID:27254258

Experimental Watershed Study Designs: A Tool for Advancing Process Understanding and Management of Mixed-Land-Use Watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hubbart, J. A.; Kellner, R. E.; Zeiger, S. J.

2016-12-01

Advancements in watershed management are both a major challenge, and urgent need of this century. The experimental watershed study (EWS) approach provides critical baseline and long-term information that can improve decision-making, and reduce misallocation of mitigation investments. Historically, the EWS approach was used in wildland watersheds to quantitatively characterize basic landscape alterations (e.g. forest harvest, road building). However, in recent years, EWS is being repurposed in contemporary multiple-land-use watersheds comprising a mosaic of land use practices such as urbanizing centers, industry, agriculture, and rural development. The EWS method provides scalable and transferrable results that address the uncertainties of development, while providing a scientific basis for total maximum daily load (TMDL) targets in increasing numbers of Clean Water Act 303(d) listed waters. Collaborative adaptive management (CAM) programs, designed to consider the needs of many stakeholders, can also benefit from EWS-generated information, which can be used for best decision making, and serve as a guidance tool throughout the CAM program duration. Of similar importance, long-term EWS monitoring programs create a model system to show stakeholders how investing in rigorous scientific research initiatives improves decision-making, thereby increasing management efficiencies through more focused investments. The evolution from classic wildland EWS designs to contemporary EWS designs in multiple-land-use watersheds will be presented while illustrating how such an approach can encourage innovation, cooperation, and trust among watershed stakeholders working to reach the common goal of improving and sustaining hydrologic regimes and water quality.

The psychology of nutrition messages.

PubMed

Schofield, Heather; Mullainathan, Sendhil

2008-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to explore consumer thinking about nutrition decisions and how firms can use consumers' awareness of the links between nutrients and health generated by public health messages to market products, including ones, which have little nutritional value. We approach this issue by tracking the development of public health messages based on scientific research, dissemination of those messages in the popular press, and use of nutrition claims in food advertisements to assess whether firms are timing the use of nutrition claims to take advantage of heuristic-based decision-making. Our findings suggest that the timing of the development of nutrition information, its dissemination in the press, and use in advertising accords well with a heuristic processing model in which firms take advantage of associations between nutrient information and health in their advertisements. However, the demonstrated relationships may not be causal. Further research will be needed to provide stronger and more comprehensive evidence regarding the proposed message hijacking process. If the message hijacking framework is borne out: (1) simple overall health rating scales could significantly improve consumer decision-making, (2) the impact of misleading advertisements could be mitigated by encouraging a multidimensional view of nutrition, and (3) more intensive regulation of product labeling could limit the impact of hijacked messages. Overall, this paper considers a novel hypothesis about the impact of public health messages on nutrition and health.

An Educational Intervention Designed to Increase Women's Leadership Self-Efficacy

PubMed Central

Isaac, Carol; Kaatz, Anna; Lee, Barbara; Carnes, Molly

2012-01-01

Women are sparsely represented in leadership in academic science, technology, engineering, mathematics, and medicine (STEMM). Cultural stereotypes about men, women, and leaders influence the attitudes, judgments, and decisions that others make about women and the choices women make for themselves. Multilevel interventions are needed to counteract the impact of these pervasive and easily activated stereotypes, which conspire in multiple ways to constrain women's entry, persistence, and advancement in academic STEMM. We describe an individual-level educational intervention. Using the transtheoretical model of behavioral change as a framework, we assessed the success of a semester course on increasing women's leadership self-efficacy for the first three cohorts of course participants (n = 30). Pre/post questionnaires showed gains in leadership self-efficacy, personal mastery, and self-esteem, and decreases in perceived constraints. Qualitative text analysis of weekly journals indicated increasing leadership self-efficacy as course participants applied course information and integrated strategies to mitigate the impact of societal stereotypes into their own leadership practices. Follow-up queries of the first two cohorts supported the enduring value of course participation. We conclude that providing strategies to recognize and mitigate the impact of gender stereotypes is effective in increasing leadership self-efficacy in women at early stages of academic STEMM careers. PMID:22949427

An educational intervention designed to increase women's leadership self-efficacy.

PubMed

Isaac, Carol; Kaatz, Anna; Lee, Barbara; Carnes, Molly

2012-01-01

Women are sparsely represented in leadership in academic science, technology, engineering, mathematics, and medicine (STEMM). Cultural stereotypes about men, women, and leaders influence the attitudes, judgments, and decisions that others make about women and the choices women make for themselves. Multilevel interventions are needed to counteract the impact of these pervasive and easily activated stereotypes, which conspire in multiple ways to constrain women's entry, persistence, and advancement in academic STEMM. We describe an individual-level educational intervention. Using the transtheoretical model of behavioral change as a framework, we assessed the success of a semester course on increasing women's leadership self-efficacy for the first three cohorts of course participants (n = 30). Pre/post questionnaires showed gains in leadership self-efficacy, personal mastery, and self-esteem, and decreases in perceived constraints. Qualitative text analysis of weekly journals indicated increasing leadership self-efficacy as course participants applied course information and integrated strategies to mitigate the impact of societal stereotypes into their own leadership practices. Follow-up queries of the first two cohorts supported the enduring value of course participation. We conclude that providing strategies to recognize and mitigate the impact of gender stereotypes is effective in increasing leadership self-efficacy in women at early stages of academic STEMM careers.

One Health Economics to confront disease threats

PubMed Central

Machalaba, Catherine; Smith, Kristine M; Awada, Lina; Berry, Kevin; Berthe, Franck; Bouley, Timothy A; Bruce, Mieghan; Cortiñas Abrahantes, Jose; El Turabi, Anas; Feferholtz, Yasha; Flynn, Louise; Fournié, Giullaume; Andre, Amanda; Grace, Delia; Jonas, Olga; Kimani, Tabitha; Le Gall, François; Miranda, Juan Jose; Peyre, Marisa; Pinto, Julio; Ross, Noam; Rüegg, Simon R; Salerno, Robert H; Seifman, Richard; Zambrana-Torrelio, Carlos; Karesh, William B

2017-01-01

Abstract Global economic impacts of epidemics suggest high return on investment in prevention and One Health capacity. However, such investments remain limited, contributing to persistent endemic diseases and vulnerability to emerging ones. An interdisciplinary workshop explored methods for country-level analysis of added value of One Health approaches to disease control. Key recommendations include: 1. systems thinking to identify risks and mitigation options for decision-making under uncertainty; 2. multisectoral economic impact assessment to identify wider relevance and possible resource-sharing, and 3. consistent integration of environmental considerations. Economic analysis offers a congruent measure of value complementing diverse impact metrics among sectors and contexts. PMID:29044367

Earth Sciences Data and Information System (ESDIS) program planning and evaluation methodology development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dickinson, William B.

1995-01-01

An Earth Sciences Data and Information System (ESDIS) Project Management Plan (PMP) is prepared. An ESDIS Project Systems Engineering Management Plan (SEMP) consistent with the developed PMP is also prepared. ESDIS and related EOS program requirements developments, management and analysis processes are evaluated. Opportunities to improve the effectiveness of these processes and program/project responsiveness to requirements are identified. Overall ESDIS cost estimation processes are evaluated, and recommendations to improve cost estimating and modeling techniques are developed. ESDIS schedules and scheduling tools are evaluated. Risk assessment, risk mitigation strategies and approaches, and use of risk information in management decision-making are addressed.

Uncertainty in weather and climate prediction

PubMed Central

Slingo, Julia; Palmer, Tim

2011-01-01

Following Lorenz's seminal work on chaos theory in the 1960s, probabilistic approaches to prediction have come to dominate the science of weather and climate forecasting. This paper gives a perspective on Lorenz's work and how it has influenced the ways in which we seek to represent uncertainty in forecasts on all lead times from hours to decades. It looks at how model uncertainty has been represented in probabilistic prediction systems and considers the challenges posed by a changing climate. Finally, the paper considers how the uncertainty in projections of climate change can be addressed to deliver more reliable and confident assessments that support decision-making on adaptation and mitigation. PMID:22042896

Bayesian adaptive survey protocols for resource management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Halstead, Brian J.; Wylie, Glenn D.; Coates, Peter S.; Casazza, Michael L.

2011-01-01

Transparency in resource management decisions requires a proper accounting of uncertainty at multiple stages of the decision-making process. As information becomes available, periodic review and updating of resource management protocols reduces uncertainty and improves management decisions. One of the most basic steps to mitigating anthropogenic effects on populations is determining if a population of a species occurs in an area that will be affected by human activity. Species are rarely detected with certainty, however, and falsely declaring a species absent can cause improper conservation decisions or even extirpation of populations. We propose a method to design survey protocols for imperfectly detected species that accounts for multiple sources of uncertainty in the detection process, is capable of quantitatively incorporating expert opinion into the decision-making process, allows periodic updates to the protocol, and permits resource managers to weigh the severity of consequences if the species is falsely declared absent. We developed our method using the giant gartersnake (Thamnophis gigas), a threatened species precinctive to the Central Valley of California, as a case study. Survey date was negatively related to the probability of detecting the giant gartersnake, and water temperature was positively related to the probability of detecting the giant gartersnake at a sampled location. Reporting sampling effort, timing and duration of surveys, and water temperatures would allow resource managers to evaluate the probability that the giant gartersnake occurs at sampled sites where it is not detected. This information would also allow periodic updates and quantitative evaluation of changes to the giant gartersnake survey protocol. Because it naturally allows multiple sources of information and is predicated upon the idea of updating information, Bayesian analysis is well-suited to solving the problem of developing efficient sampling protocols for species of conservation concern.

Why near-miss events can decrease an individual's protective response to hurricanes.

PubMed

Dillon, Robin L; Tinsley, Catherine H; Cronin, Matthew

2011-03-01

Prior research shows that when people perceive the risk of some hazardous event to be low, they are unlikely to engage in mitigation activities for the potential hazard. We believe one factor that can lower inappropriately (from a normative perspective) people's perception of the risk of a hazard is information about prior near-miss events. A near-miss occurs when an event (such as a hurricane), which had some nontrivial probability of ending in disaster (loss of life, property damage), does not because good fortune intervenes. People appear to mistake such good fortune as an indicator of resiliency. In our first study, people with near-miss information were less likely to purchase flood insurance, and this was shown for both participants from the general population and individuals with specific interests in risk and natural disasters. In our second study, we consider a different mitigation decision, that is, to evacuate from a hurricane, and vary the level of statistical probability of hurricane damage. We still found a strong effect for near-miss information. Our research thus shows how people who have experienced a similar situation but escape damage because of chance will make decisions consistent with a perception that the situation is less risky than those without the past experience. We end by discussing the implications for risk communication. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

Revisiting safe sleep recommendations for African-American infants: why current counseling is insufficient.

PubMed

Gaydos, Laura M; Blake, Sarah C; Gazmararian, Julie A; Woodruff, Whitney; Thompson, Winifred W; Dalmida, Safiya George

2015-03-01

The American Academy of Pediatrics recommends that children be placed in the supine position on firm bedding and not bed share with parents or other children. Health professionals increasingly understand that many African-American parents do not follow these recommendations, but little research exists on provider reactions to this non-compliance. This study was intended to better understand how low-income, African-American mothers understand and act upon safe sleep recommendations for newborns and how providers counsel these mothers. We conducted focus groups with 60 African-American, low-income, first-time mothers and telephone interviews with 20 providers serving these populations to explore provider counseling and patient decision making. The large majority of mothers reported understanding, but not following, the safe-sleeping recommendations. Key reasons for non-compliance included perceived safety, convenience, quality of infant sleep and conflicting information from family members. Mothers often take measures intended to mitigate risk associated with noncompliance, instead increasing SIDS risk. Providers recognize that many mothers are non-compliant and attribute non-compliance largely to cultural and familial influence. However, few provider attempts are made to mitigate SIDS risks from non-compliant behaviors. We suggest that counseling strategies should be adapted to: (1) provide greater detailed rationale for SIDS prevention recommendations; and (2) incorporate or acknowledge familial and cultural preferences. Ignoring the reasons for sleep decisions by African-American parents may perpetuate ongoing racial/ethnic disparities in SIDS.

Treatment Decision Regret Among Long-Term Survivors of Localized Prostate Cancer: Results From the Prostate Cancer Outcomes Study.

PubMed

Hoffman, Richard M; Lo, Mary; Clark, Jack A; Albertsen, Peter C; Barry, Michael J; Goodman, Michael; Penson, David F; Stanford, Janet L; Stroup, Antoinette M; Hamilton, Ann S

2017-07-10

Purpose To determine the demographic, clinical, decision-making, and quality-of-life factors that are associated with treatment decision regret among long-term survivors of localized prostate cancer. Patients and Methods We evaluated men who were age ≤ 75 years when diagnosed with localized prostate cancer between October 1994 and October 1995 in one of six SEER tumor registries and who completed a 15-year follow-up survey. The survey obtained demographic, socioeconomic, and clinical data and measured treatment decision regret, informed decision making, general- and disease-specific quality of life, health worry, prostate-specific antigen (PSA) concern, and outlook on life. We used multivariable logistic regression analyses to identify factors associated with regret. Results We surveyed 934 participants, 69.3% of known survivors. Among the cohort, 59.1% had low-risk tumor characteristics (PSA < 10 ng/mL and Gleason score < 7), and 89.2% underwent active treatment. Overall, 14.6% expressed treatment decision regret: 8.2% of those whose disease was managed conservatively, 15.0% of those who received surgery, and 16.6% of those who underwent radiotherapy. Factors associated with regret on multivariable analysis included reporting moderate or big sexual function bother (reported by 39.0%; OR, 2.77; 95% CI, 1.51 to 5.0), moderate or big bowel function bother (reported by 7.7%; OR, 2.32; 95% CI, 1.04 to 5.15), and PSA concern (mean score 52.8; OR, 1.01 per point change; 95% CI, 1.00 to 1.02). Increasing age at diagnosis and report of having made an informed treatment decision were inversely associated with regret. Conclusion Regret was a relatively infrequently reported outcome among long-term survivors of localized prostate cancer; however, our results suggest that better informing men about treatment options, in particular, conservative treatment, might help mitigate long-term regret. These findings are timely for men with low-risk cancers who are being encouraged to consider active surveillance.

Multi-level multi-criteria analysis of alternative fuels for waste collection vehicles in the United States.

PubMed

Maimoun, Mousa; Madani, Kaveh; Reinhart, Debra

2016-04-15

Historically, the U.S. waste collection fleet was dominated by diesel-fueled waste collection vehicles (WCVs); the growing need for sustainable waste collection has urged decision makers to incorporate economically efficient alternative fuels, while mitigating environmental impacts. The pros and cons of alternative fuels complicate the decisions making process, calling for a comprehensive study that assesses the multiple factors involved. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) methods allow decision makers to select the best alternatives with respect to selection criteria. In this study, two MCDA methods, Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) and Simple Additive Weighting (SAW), were used to rank fuel alternatives for the U.S. waste collection industry with respect to a multi-level environmental and financial decision matrix. The environmental criteria consisted of life-cycle emissions, tail-pipe emissions, water footprint (WFP), and power density, while the financial criteria comprised of vehicle cost, fuel price, fuel price stability, and fueling station availability. The overall analysis showed that conventional diesel is still the best option, followed by hydraulic-hybrid WCVs, landfill gas (LFG) sourced natural gas, fossil natural gas, and biodiesel. The elimination of the WFP and power density criteria from the environmental criteria ranked biodiesel 100 (BD100) as an environmentally better alternative compared to other fossil fuels (diesel and natural gas). This result showed that considering the WFP and power density as environmental criteria can make a difference in the decision process. The elimination of the fueling station and fuel price stability criteria from the decision matrix ranked fossil natural gas second after LFG-sourced natural gas. This scenario was found to represent the status quo of the waste collection industry. A sensitivity analysis for the status quo scenario showed the overall ranking of diesel and fossil natural gas to be more sensitive to changing fuel prices as compared to other alternatives. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Advance directives lessen the decisional burden of surrogate decision-making for the chronically critically ill.

PubMed

Hickman, Ronald L; Pinto, Melissa D

2014-03-01

To identify the relationships between advance directive status, demographic characteristics and decisional burden (role stress and depressive symptoms) of surrogate decision-makers (SDMs) of patients with chronic critical illness. Although the prevalence of advance directives among Americans has increased, SDMs are ultimately responsible for complex medical decisions of the chronically critically ill patient. Decisional burden has lasting psychological effects on SDMs. There is insufficient evidence on the influence of advance directives on the decisional burden of surrogate decision-makers of patients with chronic critical illness. The study was a secondary data analysis of cross-sectional data. Data were obtained from 489 surrogate decision-makers of chronically critically ill patients at two academic medical centres in Northeast Ohio, United States, between September 2005-May 2008. Data were collected using demographic forms and questionnaires. A single-item measure of role stress and the Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression (CESD) scale were used to capture the SDM's decisional burden. Descriptive statistics, t-tests, chi-square and path analyses were performed. Surrogate decision-makers who were nonwhite, with low socioeconomic status and low education level were less likely to have advance directive documentation for their chronically critically ill patient. The presence of an advance directive mitigates the decisional burden by directly reducing the SDM's role stress and indirectly lessening the severity of depressive symptoms. Most SDMs of chronically critically ill patients will not have the benefit of knowing the patient's preferences for life-sustaining therapies and consequently be at risk of increased decisional burden. Study results are clinically useful for patient education on the influence of advance directives. Patients may be informed that SDMs without advance directives are at risk of increased decisional burden and will require decisional support to facilitate patient-centred decision-making. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Trade-offs and synergies between carbon storage and livelihood benefits from forest commons.

PubMed

Chhatre, Ashwini; Agrawal, Arun

2009-10-20

Forests provide multiple benefits at local to global scales. These include the global public good of carbon sequestration and local and national level contributions to livelihoods for more than half a billion users. Forest commons are a particularly important class of forests generating these multiple benefits. Institutional arrangements to govern forest commons are believed to substantially influence carbon storage and livelihood contributions, especially when they incorporate local knowledge and decentralized decision making. However, hypothesized relationships between institutional factors and multiple benefits have never been tested on data from multiple countries. By using original data on 80 forest commons in 10 countries across Asia, Africa, and Latin America, we show that larger forest size and greater rule-making autonomy at the local level are associated with high carbon storage and livelihood benefits; differences in ownership of forest commons are associated with trade-offs between livelihood benefits and carbon storage. We argue that local communities restrict their consumption of forest products when they own forest commons, thereby increasing carbon storage. In showing rule-making autonomy and ownership as distinct and important institutional influences on forest outcomes, our results are directly relevant to international climate change mitigation initiatives such as Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD) and avoided deforestation. Transfer of ownership over larger forest commons patches to local communities, coupled with payments for improved carbon storage can contribute to climate change mitigation without adversely affecting local livelihoods.

Conservation in the face of climate change: The roles of alternative models, monitoring, and adaptation in confronting and reducing uncertainty

USGS Publications Warehouse

Conroy, M.J.; Runge, M.C.; Nichols, J.D.; Stodola, K.W.; Cooper, R.J.

2011-01-01

The broad physical and biological principles behind climate change and its potential large scale ecological impacts on biota are fairly well understood, although likely responses of biotic communities at fine spatio-temporal scales are not, limiting the ability of conservation programs to respond effectively to climate change outside the range of human experience. Much of the climate debate has focused on attempts to resolve key uncertainties in a hypothesis-testing framework. However, conservation decisions cannot await resolution of these scientific issues and instead must proceed in the face of uncertainty. We suggest that conservation should precede in an adaptive management framework, in which decisions are guided by predictions under multiple, plausible hypotheses about climate impacts. Under this plan, monitoring is used to evaluate the response of the system to climate drivers, and management actions (perhaps experimental) are used to confront testable predictions with data, in turn providing feedback for future decision making. We illustrate these principles with the problem of mitigating the effects of climate change on terrestrial bird communities in the southern Appalachian Mountains, USA. ?? 2010 Elsevier Ltd.

The effectiveness of different approaches to media literacy in modifying adolescents' responses to alcohol.

PubMed

Chen, Yi-Chun Yvonnes

2013-01-01

Fearing the negative effect that alcohol advertising might have on adolescents' receptiveness to the consumption of alcohol, health educators have used media literacy as an effective strategy to mitigate the effect of these messages in the media. The present study applied parental mediation to the design and evaluations of a media literacy curriculum that targets alcohol decision-making processes illustrated in the message interpretation process model. The authors conducted a pretest-posttest quasi-experiment of 171 adolescents to examine the effect of a negative evaluative approach and a balanced evaluative approach (a combination of negative and positive evaluative strategies) to media literacy on modifying adolescents' responses to alcohol messages. Results showed that different media literacy approaches had varying degrees of effectiveness on adolescent boys and girls. After receiving a negative media literacy lesson, adolescent boys regarded television characters as less realistic and believed that drinking alcohol had negative consequences. In contrast, adolescent girls benefited more from a balanced evaluative approach as their media skepticism attitude was enhanced. Results suggest that health educators should choose tailored pedagogical approaches that are based on gender to improve decision making regarding alcohol consumption.

Living in a tinderbox: wildfire risk perceptions and mitigating behaviours

Treesearch

Patricia A. Champ; Geoffrey H. Donovan; Christopher M. Barth

2013-01-01

The loss of homes to wildfires is an important issue in the USA and other countries. Yet many homeowners living in fire-prone areas do not undertake mitigating actions, such as clearing vegetation, to decrease the risk of losing their home. To better understand the complexity of wildfire risk-mitigation decisions and the role of perceived risk, we conducted a survey of...

LOD BIM Element specification for Railway Turnout Systems Risk Mitigation using the Information Delivery Manual

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gigante-Barrera, Ángel; Dindar, Serdar; Kaewunruen, Sakdirat; Ruikar, Darshan

2017-10-01

Railway turnouts are complex systems designed using complex geometries and grades which makes them difficult to be managed in terms of risk prevention. This feature poses a substantial peril to rail users as it is considered a cause of derailment. In addition, derailment deals to financial losses due to operational downtimes and monetary compensations in case of death or injure. These are fundamental drivers to consider mitigating risks arising from poor risk management during design. Prevention through design (PtD) is a process that introduces tacit knowledge from industry professionals during the design process. There is evidence that Building Information Modelling (BIM) can help to mitigate risk since the inception of the project. BIM is considered an Information System (IS) were tacit knowledge can be stored and retrieved from a digital database making easy to take promptly decisions as information is ready to be analysed. BIM at the model element level entails working with 3D elements and embedded data, therefore adding a layer of complexity to the management of information along the different stages of the project and across different disciplines. In order to overcome this problem, the industry has created a framework for model progression specification named Level of Development (LOD). The paper presents an IDM based framework for design risk mitigation through code validation using the LOD. This effort resulted on risk datasets which describe graphically and non-graphically a rail turnout as the model progresses. Thus, permitting its inclusion within risk information systems. The assignment of an LOD construct to a set of data, requires specialised management and process related expertise. Furthermore, the selection of a set of LOD constructs requires a purpose based analysis. Therefore, a framework for LOD constructs implementation within the IDM for code checking is required for the industry to progress in this particular field.

Number of warning information sources and decision making during tornadoes.

PubMed

Luo, Jianjun; Cong, Zhen; Liang, Daan

2015-03-01

Taking proper protective action upon receiving tornado warnings is critical to reducing casualties. With more warning information sources becoming available, how the number of such information sources affects decision making should be quantitatively investigated. To examine how the number of warning information sources affected individuals' decisions to take protective action during tornadoes. A telephone survey using random sampling was conducted in 2012 with residents in Tuscaloosa AL and Joplin MO, resulting in a working sample of 782 respondents. Both cities were struck by violent tornadoes (Enhanced Fujita Scale [EF]4 and EF5) in 2011. The analysis was conducted in 2013. Logistic regression analysis showed that relative to having only one warning information source, having two and three or more warning information sources significantly increased the odds of taking protective action in Joplin but not in Tuscaloosa; having three or more sources had a significantly stronger effect on taking protective action in Joplin than in Tuscaloosa. Having an emergency preparation plan in both cities and being white in Tuscaloosa significantly increased the odds of taking protective action, whereas being divorced in Joplin reduced these odds. Receiving warnings from more warning information sources might be more beneficial in places with less previous exposure to tornadoes and for populations with lower awareness of a potential tornado and higher probability of receiving no warnings. Emergency management agencies and public health officials should give priority to these places and populations when formulating disaster mitigation decisions and policies. Copyright © 2015 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Elements of an integrated health monitoring framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fraser, Michael; Elgamal, Ahmed; Conte, Joel P.; Masri, Sami; Fountain, Tony; Gupta, Amarnath; Trivedi, Mohan; El Zarki, Magda

2003-07-01

Internet technologies are increasingly facilitating real-time monitoring of Bridges and Highways. The advances in wireless communications for instance, are allowing practical deployments for large extended systems. Sensor data, including video signals, can be used for long-term condition assessment, traffic-load regulation, emergency response, and seismic safety applications. Computer-based automated signal-analysis algorithms routinely process the incoming data and determine anomalies based on pre-defined response thresholds and more involved signal analysis techniques. Upon authentication, appropriate action may be authorized for maintenance, early warning, and/or emergency response. In such a strategy, data from thousands of sensors can be analyzed with near real-time and long-term assessment and decision-making implications. Addressing the above, a flexible and scalable (e.g., for an entire Highway system, or portfolio of Networked Civil Infrastructure) software architecture/framework is being developed and implemented. This framework will network and integrate real-time heterogeneous sensor data, database and archiving systems, computer vision, data analysis and interpretation, physics-based numerical simulation of complex structural systems, visualization, reliability & risk analysis, and rational statistical decision-making procedures. Thus, within this framework, data is converted into information, information into knowledge, and knowledge into decision at the end of the pipeline. Such a decision-support system contributes to the vitality of our economy, as rehabilitation, renewal, replacement, and/or maintenance of this infrastructure are estimated to require expenditures in the Trillion-dollar range nationwide, including issues of Homeland security and natural disaster mitigation. A pilot website (http://bridge.ucsd.edu/compositedeck.html) currently depicts some basic elements of the envisioned integrated health monitoring analysis framework.

A method for scenario-based risk assessment for robust aerospace systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, Victoria Katherine

In years past, aircraft conceptual design centered around creating a feasible aircraft that could be built and could fly the required missions. More recently, aircraft viability entered into conceptual design, allowing that the product's potential to be profitable should also be examined early in the design process. While examining an aerospace system's feasibility and viability early in the design process is extremely important, it is also important to examine system risk. In traditional aerospace systems risk analysis, risk is examined from the perspective of performance, schedule, and cost. Recently, safety and reliability analysis have been brought forward in the design process to also be examined during late conceptual and early preliminary design. While these analyses work as designed, existing risk analysis methods and techniques are not designed to examine an aerospace system's external operating environment and the risks present there. A new method has been developed here to examine, during the early part of concept design, the risk associated with not meeting assumptions about the system's external operating environment. The risks are examined in five categories: employment, culture, government and politics, economics, and technology. The risks are examined over a long time-period, up to the system's entire life cycle. The method consists of eight steps over three focus areas. The first focus area is Problem Setup. During problem setup, the problem is defined and understood to the best of the decision maker's ability. There are four steps in this area, in the following order: Establish the Need, Scenario Development, Identify Solution Alternatives, and Uncertainty and Risk Identification. There is significant iteration between steps two through four. Focus area two is Modeling and Simulation. In this area the solution alternatives and risks are modeled, and a numerical value for risk is calculated. A risk mitigation model is also created. The four steps involved in completing the modeling and simulation are: Alternative Solution Modeling, Uncertainty Quantification, Risk Assessment, and Risk Mitigation. Focus area three consists of Decision Support. In this area a decision support interface is created that allows for game playing between solution alternatives and risk mitigation. A multi-attribute decision making process is also implemented to aid in decision making. A demonstration problem inspired by Airbus' mid 1980s decision to break into the widebody long-range market was developed to illustrate the use of this method. The results showed that the method is able to capture additional types of risk than previous analysis methods, particularly at the early stages of aircraft design. It was also shown that the method can be used to help create a system that is robust to external environmental factors. The addition of an external environment risk analysis in the early stages of conceptual design can add another dimension to the analysis of feasibility and viability. The ability to take risk into account during the early stages of the design process can allow for the elimination of potentially feasible and viable but too-risky alternatives. The addition of a scenario-based analysis instead of a traditional probabilistic analysis enabled uncertainty to be effectively bound and examined over a variety of potential futures instead of only a single future. There is also potential for a product to be groomed for a specific future that one believes is likely to happen, or for a product to be steered during design as the future unfolds.

A Health-Based Metric for Evaluating the Effectiveness of Noise Barrier Mitigation Associated With Transport Infrastructure Noise

PubMed Central

Prendergast, Geoffrey P.; Staff, Michael

2017-01-01

Introduction: This study examines the use of the number of night-time sleep disturbances as a health-based metric to assess the cost effectiveness of rail noise mitigation strategies for situations, wherein high-intensity noises dominate such as freight train pass-bys and wheel squeal. Materials and Methods: Twenty residential properties adjacent to the existing and proposed rail tracks in a noise catchment area of the Epping to Thornleigh Third Track project were used as a case study. Awakening probabilities were calculated for individual’s awakening 1, 3 and 5 times a night when subjected to 10 independent freight train pass-by noise events using internal maximum sound pressure levels (LAFmax). Results: Awakenings were predicted using a random intercept multivariate logistic regression model. With source mitigation in place, the majority of the residents were still predicted to be awoken at least once per night (median 88.0%), although substantial reductions in the median probabilities of awakening three and five times per night from 50.9 to 29.4% and 9.2 to 2.7%, respectively, were predicted. This resulted in a cost-effective estimate of 7.6–8.8 less people being awoken at least three times per night per A$1 million spent on noise barriers. Conclusion: The study demonstrates that an easily understood metric can be readily used to assist making decisions related to noise mitigation for large-scale transport projects. PMID:29192613

Medical mitigation model: quantifying the benefits of the public health response to a chemical terrorism attack.

PubMed

Good, Kevin; Winkel, David; VonNiederhausern, Michael; Hawkins, Brian; Cox, Jessica; Gooding, Rachel; Whitmire, Mark

2013-06-01

The Chemical Terrorism Risk Assessment (CTRA) and Chemical Infrastructure Risk Assessment (CIRA) are programs that estimate the risk of chemical terrorism attacks to help inform and improve the US defense posture against such events. One aspect of these programs is the development and advancement of a Medical Mitigation Model-a mathematical model that simulates the medical response to a chemical terrorism attack and estimates the resulting number of saved or benefited victims. At the foundation of the CTRA/CIRA Medical Mitigation Model is the concept of stock-and-flow modeling; "stocks" are states that individuals progress through during the event, while "flows" permit and govern movement from one stock to another. Using this approach, the model is able to simulate and track individual victims as they progress from exposure to an end state. Some of the considerations in the model include chemical used, type of attack, route and severity of exposure, response-related delays, detailed treatment regimens with efficacy defined as a function of time, medical system capacity, the influx of worried well individuals, and medical countermeasure availability. As will be demonstrated, the output of the CTRA/CIRA Medical Mitigation Model makes it possible to assess the effectiveness of the existing public health response system and develop and examine potential improvement strategies. Such a modeling and analysis capability can be used to inform first-responder actions/training, guide policy decisions, justify resource allocation, and direct knowledge-gap studies.

Outreach Programs, Peer Pressure, and Common Sense: What Motivates Homeowners to Mitigate Wildfire Risk?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCaffrey, Sarah M.; Stidham, Melanie; Toman, Eric; Shindler, Bruce

2011-09-01

In recent years, altered forest conditions, climate change, and the increasing numbers of homes built in fire prone areas has meant that wildfires are affecting more people. An important part of minimizing the potential negative impacts of wildfire is engaging homeowners in mitigating the fire hazard on their land. It is therefore important to understand what makes homeowners more or less willing to take action. The research presented here comes from a study that interviewed a total of 198 homeowners in six communities in the western United States about the activities they had undertaken to mitigate their fire risk, the factors that contributed to their decisions, and their future intentions. The current paper reports on findings from the first half of the longitudinal study, after 3 years we will return to interview the current homeowner on the same properties to assess maintenance actions and facilitating and limiting factors. Overall we found a body of individuals who understand the fire risk, are taking numerous mitigation actions, and think that these actions have reduced their risk. These homeowners typically did not expect the government to do it for them: they wanted information about what to do and, in some cases, assistance with the work, but saw taking care of their property primarily as their responsibility. Responses also show that key information sources and motivating factors vary by location and that it is not inherently necessary to have relationships between community members to create defensible space.

Are cooler surfaces a cost-effect mitigation of urban heat islands?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pomerantz, Melvin

Much research has gone into technologies to mitigate urban heat islands by making urban surfaces cooler by increasing their albedos. To be practical, the benefit of the technology must be greater than its cost. Here, this report provides simple methods for quantifying the maxima of some benefits that albedo increases may provide. The method used is an extension of an earlier paper that estimated the maximum possible electrical energy saving achievable in an entire city in a year by a change of albedo of its surfaces. The present report estimates the maximum amounts and monetary savings of avoided CO 2more » emissions and the decreases in peak power demands. As examples, for several warm cities in California, a 0.2 increase in albedo of pavements is found to reduce CO 2 emissions by < 1 kg per m 2 per year. At the current price of CO 2 reduction in California, the monetary saving is < US$ 0.01 per year per m 2 modified. The resulting maximum peak-power reductions are estimated to be < 7% of the base power of the city. In conclusion, the magnitudes of the savings are such that decision-makers should choose carefully which urban heat island mitigation techniques are cost effective.« less

Are cooler surfaces a cost-effect mitigation of urban heat islands?

DOE PAGES

Pomerantz, Melvin

2017-04-20

Much research has gone into technologies to mitigate urban heat islands by making urban surfaces cooler by increasing their albedos. To be practical, the benefit of the technology must be greater than its cost. Here, this report provides simple methods for quantifying the maxima of some benefits that albedo increases may provide. The method used is an extension of an earlier paper that estimated the maximum possible electrical energy saving achievable in an entire city in a year by a change of albedo of its surfaces. The present report estimates the maximum amounts and monetary savings of avoided CO 2more » emissions and the decreases in peak power demands. As examples, for several warm cities in California, a 0.2 increase in albedo of pavements is found to reduce CO 2 emissions by < 1 kg per m 2 per year. At the current price of CO 2 reduction in California, the monetary saving is < US$ 0.01 per year per m 2 modified. The resulting maximum peak-power reductions are estimated to be < 7% of the base power of the city. In conclusion, the magnitudes of the savings are such that decision-makers should choose carefully which urban heat island mitigation techniques are cost effective.« less

Future Challenges in Managing Human Health and Performance Risks for Space Flight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Corbin, Barbara J.; Barratt, Michael

2013-01-01

The global economy forces many nations to consider their national investments and make difficult decisions regarding their investment in future exploration. To enable safe, reliable, and productive human space exploration, we must pool global resources to understand and mitigate human health & performance risks prior to embarking on human exploration of deep space destinations. Consensus on the largest risks to humans during exploration is required to develop an integrated approach to mitigating risks. International collaboration in human space flight research will focus research on characterizing the effects of spaceflight on humans and the development of countermeasures or systems. Sharing existing data internationally will facilitate high quality research and sufficient power to make sound recommendations. Efficient utilization of ISS and unique ground-based analog facilities allows greater progress. Finally, a means to share results of human research in time to influence decisions for follow-on research, system design, new countermeasures and medical practices should be developed. Although formidable barriers to overcome, International working groups are working to define the risks, establish international research opportunities, share data among partners, share flight hardware and unique analog facilities, and establish forums for timely exchange of results. Representatives from the ISS partnership research and medical communities developed a list of the top ten human health & performance risks and their impact on exploration missions. They also drafted a multilateral data sharing plan to establish guidelines and principles for sharing human spaceflight data. Other working groups are also developing methods to promote international research solicitations. Collaborative use of analog facilities and shared development of space flight research and medical hardware continues. Establishing a forum for exchange of results between researchers, aerospace physicians and program managers takes careful consideration of researcher concerns and decision maker needs. Active participation by researchers in the development of this forum is essential, and the benefit can be tremendous. The ability to rapidly respond to research results without compromising publication rights and intellectual property will facilitate timely reduction in human health and performance risks in support of international exploration missions.

Exploring regional stakeholder needs and requirements in terms of Extreme Weather Event Attribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwab, M.; Meinke, I.; Vanderlinden, J. P.; Touili, N.; Von Storch, H.

2015-12-01

Extreme event attribution has increasingly received attention in the scientific community. It may also serve decision-making at the regional level where much of the climate change impact mitigation takes place. Nevertheless, there is, to date, little known about the requirements of regional actors in terms of extreme event attribution. We have therefore analysed these at the example of regional decision-makers for climate change-related activities and/or concerned with storm surge risks at the German Baltic Sea and heat wave risks in the Greater Paris area. In order to explore if stakeholders find scientific knowledge from extreme event attribution useful and how this information might be relevant to their decision-making, we consulted a diverse set of actors engaged in the assessment, mitigation and communication of storm surge, heat wave, and climate change-related risks. Extreme event attribution knowledge was perceived to be most useful to public and political awareness-raising, but was of little or no relevance for the consulted stakeholders themselves. It was not acknowledged that it would support adaptation planning as sometimes argued in the literature. The consulted coastal protection, health, and urban adaptation planners rather needed reliable statements about possible future changes in extreme events than causal statements about past events. To enhance salience, a suitable product of event attribution should be linked to regional problems, vulnerabilities, and impacts of climate change. Given that the tolerance of uncertainty is rather low, most of the stakeholders also claimed that a suitable product of event attribution is to be received from a trusted "honest broker" and published rather later, but with smaller uncertainties than vice versa. Institutional mechanisms, like regional climate services, which enable and foster communication, translation and mediation across the boundaries between knowledge and action can help fulfill such requirements. This is of particular importance for extreme event attribution which is often understood as science producing complex and abstract information attached to large uncertainties. They can serve as an interface for creating the necessary mutual understanding by being in a continuous dialogue with both science and stakeholders.

Bike Helmets and Black Riders: Experiential Approaches to Helping Students Understand Natural Hazard Assessment and Mitigation Issues

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stein, S. A.; Kley, J.; Hindle, D.; Friedrich, A. M.

2014-12-01

Defending society against natural hazards is a high-stakes game of chance against nature, involving tough decisions. How should a developing nation allocate its budget between building schools for towns without ones or making existing schools earthquake-resistant? Does it make more sense to build levees to protect against floods, or to prevent development in the areas at risk? Would more lives be saved by making hospitals earthquake-resistant, or using the funds for patient care? These topics are challenging because they are far from normal experience, in that they involve rare events and large sums. To help students in natural hazard classes conceptualize them, we pose tough and thought-provoking questions about complex issues involved and explore them together via lectures, videos, field trips, and in-class and homework questions. We discuss analogous examples from the students' experiences, drawing on a new book "Playing Against Nature, Integrating Science and Economics to Mitigate Natural Hazards in an Uncertain World". Asking whether they wear bicycle helmets and why or why not shows the cultural perception of risk. Individual students' responses vary, and the overall results vary dramatically between the US, UK, and Germany. Challenges in hazard assessment in an uncertain world are illustrated by asking German students whether they buy a ticket on public transportation - accepting a known cost - or "ride black" - not paying but risking a heavy fine if caught. We explore the challenge of balancing mitigation costs and benefits via the question "If you were a student in Los Angeles, how much more would you pay in rent each month to live in an earthquake-safe building?" Students learn that interdisciplinary thinking is needed, and that due to both uncertainties and sociocultural factors, no unique or right strategies exist for a particular community, much the less all communities. However, we can seek robust policies that give sensible results given uncertainties.

New integrated and multiscale decision-aiding framework in a context of imperfect information: application to the assessment of torrent checkdams' effectiveness.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tacnet, Jean-Marc; Carladous, Simon; Dezert, Jean; Batton-Hubert, Mireille

2017-04-01

Mountain natural phenomena (e.g. torrential floods) put people and buildings at risk. Civil engineering protection works such as torrent check-dams are designed to mitigate those natural risks. Protection works act on both causes and effects of phenomena to reduce consequences and therefore risks. For instance, check-dams control sediment production and liquid/solid flow of torrential floods: several series of dams are located in the headwaters of a watershed, each having specific functions. All those works are damaged by time passing and flood impacts. Effectiveness assessment is needed to define, compare or choose strategies for investment and maintenance which are essential issues in risk management process. Decision support tools are expected to analyze at different scales both their technical effectiveness (related to their structural state and functional effects on phenomena such as stopping, braking, guiding, etc.) and their economic efficiency through comparison between benefits and costs. Several methods, often based on expert knowledge, have already been developed to care about decision under risk. But uncertainty has also to be considered, since decisions are indeed often taken in a context of lack of information and knowledge on natural phenomena, heterogeneity of available information and, finally, reliability of sources. First methods derived from classical industrial contexts, such as dependability analysis, are used to formalize expert knowledge used for decision-making. After having defined the concept of effectiveness, dependability analysis are used to identify decision contexts and problems: criteria and indicators are identified in relation with structural or functional features. Then, innovative and multi-scales multi-criteria decision-making methods (MCDMs) and frameworks are proposed to help assessing protection works effectiveness. They combine classical MCDM approaches, belief function, fuzzy sets and possibility theories. Those methods allow to make decisions based on heterogeneous, imprecise and uncertain evaluation of criteria provided by more or less reliable sources in an uncertain context: COWA-ER (Cautious Ordered Weighted Averaging with Evidential Reasoning), Fuzzy-Cautious OWA or ER-MCDA (Evidential Reasoning for Multi Criteria Decision Analysis) are thus applied to several scales of torrent check-dams' effectiveness assessment. Those methods are then improved for a better knowledge representation and final decision. Enhanced methods are then associated together. Finally, individual problems and associated methods are integrated in a generic methodology to move from torrential protective single measure effectiveness assessment to complete protection systems at watershed scale.

Risk-based cost-benefit analysis for evaluating microbial risk mitigation in a drinking water system.

PubMed

Bergion, Viktor; Lindhe, Andreas; Sokolova, Ekaterina; Rosén, Lars

2018-04-01

Waterborne outbreaks of gastrointestinal diseases can cause large costs to society. Risk management needs to be holistic and transparent in order to reduce these risks in an effective manner. Microbial risk mitigation measures in a drinking water system were investigated using a novel approach combining probabilistic risk assessment and cost-benefit analysis. Lake Vomb in Sweden was used to exemplify and illustrate the risk-based decision model. Four mitigation alternatives were compared, where the first three alternatives, A1-A3, represented connecting 25, 50 and 75%, respectively, of on-site wastewater treatment systems in the catchment to the municipal wastewater treatment plant. The fourth alternative, A4, represented installing a UV-disinfection unit in the drinking water treatment plant. Quantitative microbial risk assessment was used to estimate the positive health effects in terms of quality adjusted life years (QALYs), resulting from the four mitigation alternatives. The health benefits were monetised using a unit cost per QALY. For each mitigation alternative, the net present value of health and environmental benefits and investment, maintenance and running costs was calculated. The results showed that only A4 can reduce the risk (probability of infection) below the World Health Organization guidelines of 10 -4 infections per person per year (looking at the 95th percentile). Furthermore, all alternatives resulted in a negative net present value. However, the net present value would be positive (looking at the 50 th percentile using a 1% discount rate) if non-monetised benefits (e.g. increased property value divided evenly over the studied time horizon and reduced microbial risks posed to animals), estimated at 800-1200 SEK (€100-150) per connected on-site wastewater treatment system per year, were included. This risk-based decision model creates a robust and transparent decision support tool. It is flexible enough to be tailored and applied to local settings of drinking water systems. The model provides a clear and holistic structure for decisions related to microbial risk mitigation. To improve the decision model, we suggest to further develop the valuation and monetisation of health effects and to refine the propagation of uncertainties and variabilities between the included methods. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Building Capacity for Collaborative Decisions, Resilient Ecosystems, and Sustainable Practices: Water, Land, Communtiy and People in Estuarine Watersheds

EPA Science Inventory

Population growth, urban expansion, and the warming climate have and will continue to stress our coastal ecosystems. Decisions on how and when to respond with stewardship, adaptation, and mitigation are made by individuals, municipalities, states, and agencies. These decisions ...

Serious Simulation Role-Playing Games for Transformative Climate Change Education: "World Climate" and "Future Climate"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rooney-Varga, J. N.; Sterman, J.; Sawin, E.; Jones, A.; Merhi, H.; Hunt, C.

2012-12-01

Climate change, its mitigation, and adaption to its impacts are among the greatest challenges of our times. Despite the importance of societal decisions in determining climate change outcomes, flawed mental models about climate change remain widespread, are often deeply entrenched, and present significant barriers to understanding and decision-making around climate change. Here, we describe two simulation role-playing games that combine active, affective, and analytical learning to enable shifts of deeply held conceptions about climate change. The games, World Climate and Future Climate, use a state-of-the-art decision support simulation, C-ROADS (Climate Rapid Overview and Decision Support) to provide users with immediate feedback on the outcomes of their mitigation strategies at the national level, including global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and concentrations, mean temperature changes, sea level rise, and ocean acidification. C-ROADS outcomes are consistent with the atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMS), such as those used by the IPCC, but runs in less than one second on ordinary laptops, providing immediate feedback to participants on the consequences of their proposed policies. Both World Climate and Future Climate role-playing games provide immersive, situated learning experiences that motivate active engagement with climate science and policy. In World Climate, participants play the role of United Nations climate treaty negotiators. Participant emissions reductions proposals are continually assessed through interactive exploration of the best available science through C-ROADS. Future Climate focuses on time delays in the climate and energy systems. Participants play the roles of three generations: today's policymakers, today's youth, and 'just born.' The game unfolds in three rounds 25 simulated years apart. In the first round, only today's policymakers make decisions; In the next round, the young become the policymakers and inherit the results of the earlier decisions, as simulated by C-ROADS. Preliminary evaluations show that both exercises have the potential to provide powerful learning experiences. University students who played World Climate in a climate change course cited it as one of the course activities "promoting the most learning." Students' responses on anonymous surveys and open-ended questions revealed that the experience affected them at visceral, as well as intellectual levels. All of the students recommended that the exercise be continued in future years and many felt that it was the most important learning experience of the semester. Similarly, understanding of climate change and the dynamics of the climate improved for the majority of Future Climate participants, and 90% of participants stated that they were more likely to take action to address climate change on a personal level because of their experience.

Operational Decision Aids for Exploiting or Mitigating Electromagnetic Propagation Effects

DTIC Science & Technology

1989-09-01

Exploitation or mitigation of environmental effects rank equal in importance with weapons systems. The rapidly changing propagation environment ...global in nature . It not only involves the ocean environment from the tropics to the poles, but also the coastal and land environments . Some of the...tactics must take environ - mental conditions into account and either mitigate or exploit their effects. There are many environmental factors that influence

Management and monitoring of the endangered Shenandoah salamander under climate change: Workshop report 10-12 April 2012

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grant, Evan H. Campbell; Wofford, John E.B.; Smith, D.R.; Dennis, J.; Hawkins-Hoffman, C.; Schaberl, J.; Foley, M.; Bogle, M.

2014-01-01

Here we report on a structured decision making (SDM) process to identify management strategies to ensure persistence of the federally endangered Shenandoah salamander (Plethodon shenandoah), given that it may be at increased extinction risk under projected climate change. The focus of this report is the second of two SDM workshops; in the first workshop, participants developed a prototype of the decision, including problem frame, management objectives and a suite of potential management strategies, predictive models to inform the decision and link alternatives with the objectives to identify potential solutions, and identified data needs to reduce key uncertainties in the decision. Participants in this second workshop included experts in National Park Service policy at multiple administrative levels, who refined objectives, further evaluated the initial management alternatives, and discussed policy constraints on implementing active management for the species and its high-elevation habitat. The conclusion of the second workshop was similar to that of the first: the current state of information and objectives suggest that there is some value in considering active management to reduce the long-term extinction risk for the species, though there are institutional conservative policies to implementing active management at range-wide scales. The workshop participants also emphasized a conservative NPS management philosophy, including caution in implementing management actions that may ultimately harm the system, a stated assumption that ecosystem changes were “natural” unless demonstrated otherwise (therefore not warranting active management to mitigate), and a need to demonstrate that extinction risk is tied to anthropogenic influence prior to taking active management to mitigate specific anthropogenic influences. Even within a protected area having minimal human disturbance, intertwined environmental variables and interspecific relationships that drive population trends challenge our ability to demonstrate direct links with (anthropogenically influenced) climate change and the decline of a species. Thus while this policy may reduce the potential for injurious management, it may also necessitate extraordinary resources to reduce uncertainty regarding fundamental drivers of species decline prior to taking action.

Assessing the Role and Impact of Geospatial Data for Wildland Fire Management Decisions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klein, E. A.; Lev, S. M.

2016-12-01

The 2015 Wildland and Fire Science and Technology Task Force Final Report, produced by the National Science and Technology Council, Committee on Environment, Natural Resources, and Sustainability, Subcommittee on Disaster Reduction, highlighted the increasing frequency of large wildfires and the growing demand for science to inform critical resource decisions to manage, mitigate, respond to, and recover from wildland fires. Federal spending on fire suppression from 2005-2015 has more than doubled despite policy changes that prioritize the mitigation of fire risks through the use of fuel treatments, prescribed fire, and management of naturally occurring wildfires to protect life and property. Fire suppression policies over the last century have created forests primed for severe fire, and in the face of a changing climate, the benefits of re-introducing fire into once fire-resilient ecosystems are clear. There are a range of complex factors and regional variation associated with wildland fire risk that complicate our understanding and effective management of this hazard. Data derived from Earth-observing (EO) systems and networks are a crucial input for managers when making decisions about fire suppression and fuel management. EO data can also be used to develop pre- and post-fire metrics that can aid in the evaluating the effectiveness of wildland fire management decisions. A value-tree method for mapping the role of EO systems and networks in delivering societal benefit through key Federal objectives related to wildland fire management will be presented. The value-tree methodology utilizes input from subject matter experts to assess the availability and usability of data and data products and to evaluate the impact of individual EO data inputs for achieving wildland fire management objectives. The results provide a qualitative assessment of the value of the data for the objectives described and identify critical gaps and continuity issues associated with improvements to and continuous delivery of societal benefit.

Co-designing Usable Knowledge with Stakeholders and Fostering Ownership - A Pathway through the communication problem?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmale, J.; von Schneidemesser, E.; Chabay, I.; Maas, A.; Lawrence, M. G.

2013-12-01

Climate change and air pollution both have impacts across a wide range of sectors. While it is fundamental to communicate scientific findings as basis for decision making to a variety of stakeholders, it is difficult to establish long-lasting, multi-way communication and mutual learning between all parties to ensure success. There are many reasons for this difficulty, one of them being the subtle nature of climate change impacts (excluding extreme events). The decadal timescales over which changes occur make it difficult to communicate the urgent need for action, as evidence is difficult to perceive directly in the present or over the short timescales on which people are normally most accustomed to thinking. Here, we analyze experiences from the ClimPol project, designed to identify research needs and pathways to policy implementation for an integrated and sustainable policy approach to mitigate air pollution and climate change simultaneously. These two challenges are inextricably linked with regard to their causes, effects and mitigation options. Due to their linkages, action in one sector will often affect the other sector. This can have positive effects, co-benefits, e.g. by replacing coal-fired power plants through wind power, because overall emissions will be reduced. But adverse effects are also possible, trade-offs, e.g. by increasingly using wood for domestic heating, which reduces the overall CO2 emissions, but increases the emissions of particulate matter and other air pollutants. The ClimPol project uses short-lived climate-forcing air pollutants (SLCPs) as an entry point to exploring joint mitigation approaches. Due to their short atmospheric lifetimes and various adverse qualities, SLCPs exert immediate, local and direct effects across sectors like public health and food security (air quality issues), while also driving climate change. SLCP and CO2 mitigation can be complementary for reducing climate change and improving air quality. Using this linkage to present-day problems in contrast to only focusing on the long-term time scales of CO2-driven climate change, the ClimPol project goes beyond the academic realm and collaborates with a variety of stakeholders across scales from local to international to investigate potential options for joint and sustainable policies. The underlying assumption is that each stakeholder community possesses their own knowledge system which contributes an important piece to the puzzle which is necessary to assemble for creating solutions. We call this approach co-designing usable knowledge. This new type of knowledge can serve as a basis for decision making. This inclusive approach encourages all parties to take ownership in the process and solutions, thereby causing them to be more likely to act on the problem, both at the systemic, policy-driven level, and at the individual level by cooperatively supporting the associated structural and lifestyle developments. For the presentation of the results, we will focus on experiences from joint projects with non-governmental organizations on city authorities.

Validation of a Fast-Response Urban Micrometeorological Model to Assess the Performance of Urban Heat Island Mitigation Strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nadeau, D.; Girard, P.; Overby, M.; Pardyjak, E.; Stoll, R., II; Willemsen, P.; Bailey, B.; Parlange, M. B.

2015-12-01

Urban heat islands (UHI) are a real threat in many cities worldwide and mitigation measures have become a central component of urban planning strategies. Even within a city, causes of UHI vary from one neighborhood to another, mostly due the spatial variability in surface thermal properties, building geometry, anthropogenic heat flux releases and vegetation cover. As a result, the performance of UHI mitigation measures also varies in space. Hence, there is a need to develop a tool to quantify the efficiency of UHI mitigation measures at the neighborhood scale. The objective of this ongoing study is to validate the fast-response micrometeorological model QUIC EnvSim (QES). This model can provide all information required for UHI studies with a fine spatial resolution (up to 0.5m) and short computation time. QES combines QUIC, a CFD-based wind solver and dispersion model, and EnvSim, composed of a radiation model, a land-surface model and a turbulent transport model. Here, high-resolution (1 m) simulations are run over a subset of the École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL) campus including complex buildings, various surfaces properties and vegetation. For nearly five months in 2006-07, a dense network of meteorological observations (92 weather stations over 0.1 km2) was deployed over the campus and these unique data are used here as a validation dataset. We present validation results for different test cases (e.g., sunny vs cloudy days, different incoming wind speeds and directions) and explore the effect of a few UHI mitigation strategies on the spatial distribution of near-surface air temperatures. Preliminary results suggest that QES may be a valuable tool in decision-making regarding adaptation of urban planning to UHI.

Increasing resiliency to natural hazards - A strategic plan for the Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project in Southern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones, Lucy; Bernknopf, Richard; Cannon, Susan; Cox, Dale A.; Gaydos, Len; Keeley, Jon; Kohler, Monica; Lee, Homa; Ponti, Daniel; Ross, Stephanie L.; Schwarzbach, Steven; Shulters, Michael; Ward, A. Wesley; Wein, Anne

2007-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is initiating a new project designed to improve resiliency to natural hazards in southern California through the application of science to community decision making and emergency response. The Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project will assist the region’s communities to reduce their risk from natural hazards by directing new and existing research towards the community’s needs, improving monitoring technology, producing innovative products, and improving dissemination of the results. The natural hazards to be investigated in this project include coastal erosion, earthquakes, floods, landslides, tsunamis, and wildfires.Americans are more at risk from natural hazards now than at any other time in our Nation’s history. Southern California, in particular, has one of the Nation’s highest potentials for extreme catastrophic losses due to natural hazards, with estimates of expected losses exceeding $3 billion per year. These losses can only be reduced through the decisions of the southern California community itself. To be effective, these decisions must be guided by the best information about hazards, risk, and the cost-effectiveness of mitigation technologies. The USGS will work with collaborators to set the direction of the research and to create multi-hazard risk frameworks where communities can apply the results of scientific research to their decision-making processes. Partners include state, county, city, and public-lands government agencies, public and private utilities, companies with a significant impact and presence in southern California, academic researchers, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and local emergency response agencies.Prior to the writing of this strategic plan document, three strategic planning workshops were held in February and March 2006 at the USGS office in Pasadena to explore potential relationships. The goal of these planning sessions was to determine the external organizations’ needs for mitigation efforts before potential natural hazard events, and response efforts during and after the event. On the basis of input from workshop participants, four priority areas were identified for future research to address. They are (1) helping decision makers design planning scenarios, (2) improving upon the mapping of multiple hazards in urban areas, (3) providing real-time information from monitoring networks, and (4) integrating information in a risk and decision-making analysis. Towards this end, short-term and out-year goals have been outlined with the priorities in mind.First-year goals are (1) to engage the user community to establish the structures and processes for communications and interactions, (2) to develop a program to create scenarios of anticipated disasters, beginning in the first year with a scenario of a southern San Andreas earthquake that triggers secondary hazards, (3) to compile existing datasets of geospatial data, and (4) to target research efforts to support more complete and robust products in future years. Both the first-year and out-year goals have been formulated around a working-group structure that builds on existing research strengths within the USGS. The project is intended to demonstrate how developments in methodology and products can lead to improvement in our management of natural hazards in an urban environment for application across the Nation.

Climate change and game theory.

PubMed

Wood, Peter John

2011-02-01

This paper examines the problem of achieving global cooperation to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Contributions to this problem are reviewed from noncooperative game theory, cooperative game theory, and implementation theory. We examine the solutions to games where players have a continuous choice about how much to pollute, as well as games where players make decisions about treaty participation. The implications of linking cooperation on climate change with cooperation on other issues, such as trade, are also examined. Cooperative and noncooperative approaches to coalition formation are investigated in order to examine the behavior of coalitions cooperating on climate change. One way to achieve cooperation is to design a game, known as a mechanism, whose equilibrium corresponds to an optimal outcome. This paper examines some mechanisms that are based on conditional commitments, and their policy implications. These mechanisms could make cooperation on climate change mitigation more likely. © 2011 New York Academy of Sciences.

Stressing The Person: Legal and Everyday Person Attributions Under Stress

PubMed Central

Kubota, Jennifer T.; Mojdehbakhsh, Rachel; Raio, Candace; Brosch, Tobias; Uleman, Jim S.; Phelps, Elizabeth A.

2014-01-01

When determining the cause of a person’s behavior, perceivers often overweigh dispositional explanations and underweigh situational explanations, an error known as the Fundamental Attribution Error (FAE). The FAE occurs in part because dispositional explanations are relatively automatic, whereas considering the situation requires additional cognitive effort. Stress is known to impair the prefrontal cortex and executive functions important for the attribution process. We investigated if stress increases dispositional attributions in common place and legal situations. Experiencing a physiological stressor increased participants’ cortisol, dispositional attributions of common everyday behaviors, and negative evaluations. When determining whether a crime was due to the defendant’s disposition or the mitigating situation, self-reported stress correlated with increased dispositional judgments of defendant’s behavior. These findings indicate that stress may makes people more likely to commit the FAE and less favorable in their evaluations of others both in daily life and when making socially consequential judicial decisions. PMID:25175000

13 CFR 123.400 - What is the Pre-Disaster Mitigation Loan Program?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... Mitigation Loan Program? 123.400 Section 123.400 Business Credit and Assistance SMALL BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION DISASTER LOAN PROGRAM Pre-Disaster Mitigation Loans § 123.400 What is the Pre-Disaster Mitigation Loan Program? The Pre-Disaster Mitigation Loan Program allows SBA to make low interest, fixed rate loans to...

13 CFR 123.400 - What is the Pre-Disaster Mitigation Loan Program?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... Mitigation Loan Program? 123.400 Section 123.400 Business Credit and Assistance SMALL BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION DISASTER LOAN PROGRAM Pre-Disaster Mitigation Loans § 123.400 What is the Pre-Disaster Mitigation Loan Program? The Pre-Disaster Mitigation Loan Program allows SBA to make low interest, fixed rate loans to...

13 CFR 123.400 - What is the Pre-Disaster Mitigation Loan Program?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... Mitigation Loan Program? 123.400 Section 123.400 Business Credit and Assistance SMALL BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION DISASTER LOAN PROGRAM Pre-Disaster Mitigation Loans § 123.400 What is the Pre-Disaster Mitigation Loan Program? The Pre-Disaster Mitigation Loan Program allows SBA to make low interest, fixed rate loans to...

13 CFR 123.400 - What is the Pre-Disaster Mitigation Loan Program?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... Mitigation Loan Program? 123.400 Section 123.400 Business Credit and Assistance SMALL BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION DISASTER LOAN PROGRAM Pre-Disaster Mitigation Loans § 123.400 What is the Pre-Disaster Mitigation Loan Program? The Pre-Disaster Mitigation Loan Program allows SBA to make low interest, fixed rate loans to...

13 CFR 123.400 - What is the Pre-Disaster Mitigation Loan Program?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... Mitigation Loan Program? 123.400 Section 123.400 Business Credit and Assistance SMALL BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION DISASTER LOAN PROGRAM Pre-Disaster Mitigation Loans § 123.400 What is the Pre-Disaster Mitigation Loan Program? The Pre-Disaster Mitigation Loan Program allows SBA to make low interest, fixed rate loans to...

Modeling Adaptation as a Flow and Stock Decision with Mitigation

EPA Science Inventory

Mitigation and adaptation are the two key responses available to policymakers to reduce the risks of climate change. We model these two policies together in a new DICE-based integrated assessment model that characterizes adaptation as either short-lived flow spending or long-liv...

Effect of risk aversion on prioritizing conservation projects.

PubMed

Tulloch, Ayesha I T; Maloney, Richard F; Joseph, Liana N; Bennett, Joseph R; Di Fonzo, Martina M I; Probert, William J M; O'Connor, Shaun M; Densem, Jodie P; Possingham, Hugh P

2015-04-01

Conservation outcomes are uncertain. Agencies making decisions about what threat mitigation actions to take to save which species frequently face the dilemma of whether to invest in actions with high probability of success and guaranteed benefits or to choose projects with a greater risk of failure that might provide higher benefits if they succeed. The answer to this dilemma lies in the decision maker's aversion to risk--their unwillingness to accept uncertain outcomes. Little guidance exists on how risk preferences affect conservation investment priorities. Using a prioritization approach based on cost effectiveness, we compared 2 approaches: a conservative probability threshold approach that excludes investment in projects with a risk of management failure greater than a fixed level, and a variance-discounting heuristic used in economics that explicitly accounts for risk tolerance and the probabilities of management success and failure. We applied both approaches to prioritizing projects for 700 of New Zealand's threatened species across 8303 management actions. Both decision makers' risk tolerance and our choice of approach to dealing with risk preferences drove the prioritization solution (i.e., the species selected for management). Use of a probability threshold minimized uncertainty, but more expensive projects were selected than with variance discounting, which maximized expected benefits by selecting the management of species with higher extinction risk and higher conservation value. Explicitly incorporating risk preferences within the decision making process reduced the number of species expected to be safe from extinction because lower risk tolerance resulted in more species being excluded from management, but the approach allowed decision makers to choose a level of acceptable risk that fit with their ability to accommodate failure. We argue for transparency in risk tolerance and recommend that decision makers accept risk in an adaptive management framework to maximize benefits and avoid potential extinctions due to inefficient allocation of limited resources. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

GAIA - A New Approach To Decision Making on Climate Disruption Issues

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paxton, L. J.; Weiss, M.; Schaefer, R. K.; Swartz, W. H.; Nix, M.; Strong, S. B.; Fountain, G. H.; Babin, S. M.; Pikas, C. K.; Parker, C. L.; Global Assimilation of InformationAction

2011-12-01

GAIA - the Global Assimilation of Information for Action program - provides a broadly extensible framework for enabling the development of a deeper understanding of the issues associated with climate disruption. The key notion of GAIA is that the global climate problem is so complex that a "system engineering" approach is needed in order to make it understandable. The key tenet of system engineering is to focus on requirements and to develop a cost-effective process for satisfying those requirements. To demonstrate this approach we focused first on the impact of climate disruption on public health. GAIA is described in some detail on our website (http://gaia.jhuapl.edu). Climate disruption is not just a scientific problem; one of the key issues that our community has is that of translating scientific results into knowledge that can be used to make informed decisions. In order to support decision makers we have to understand their issues and how to communicate with them. In this talk, we describe how we have built a community of interest that combines subject matter experts from diverse communities (public health, climate change, government, public policy, industry, etc) with policy makers and representatives from industry to develop, on a "level playing field", an understanding of each other's points of view and issues. The first application of this technology was the development of a workshop on Climate, Climate Change and Public Health held April 12-14, 2011. This paper describes our approach to going beyond the workshop environment to continue to engage the decision maker's community in a variety of ways that translate abstract scientific data into actionable information. Key ideas we will discuss include the development of social media, simulations of global/national/local environments affected by climate disruption, and visualizations of the monetary and health impacts of choosing not to address mitigation or adaptation to climate disruption.

Integrated climate and land change research to improve decision-making and resource management in Southern Africa: The SASSCAL approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Helmschrot, J.; Olwoch, J. M.

2017-12-01

The ability of countries in southern Africa to jointly respond to climate challenges with scientifically informed and evidence-based actions and policy decisions remains low due to limited scientific research capacity and infrastructure. The Southern African Science Service Centre for Climate Change and Adaptive Land Management (SASSCAL; www.sasscal.org) addresses this gap by implementing a high-level framework to guide research and innovation investments in climate change and adaptive land management interventions in Southern Africa. With a strong climate service component as cross-cutting topic, SASSCAL's focus is to improve the understanding of climate and land management change impacts on the natural and socio-economic environment in Southern Africa. The paper presents a variety of SASSCAL driven activities which contribute to better understand climate and long-term environmental change dynamics at various temporal and spatial scales in Southern Afrika and how these activities are linked to support research and decision-making to optimize agricultural practices as well as sustainable environmental and water resources management. To provide consistent and reliable climate information for Southern Africa, SASSCAL offers various climate services ranging from real-time climate observation across the region utilizing the SASSCAL WeatherNet to regional climate change analysis and modelling efforts at seasonal-to-decadal timescales using climate data from various sources. SASSCAL also offers the current state of the environment in terms of recent data on changes in the environment that are necessary for setting appropriate adaptation strategies . The paper will further demonstrate how these services are utilized for interdisciplinary research on the impact of climate change on natural resources and socio-economic development in the SASSCAL countries and how this knowledge can be effectively used to mitigate and adapt to climate change by informed decision-making from farm to regional level.

Defining the Application Readiness of Products when Developing Earth Observing Remote Sensing Data Products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Escobar, V. M.

2017-12-01

Satellite remote sensing technology has contributed to the transformation of multiple earth science domains, putting space observations at the forefront of innovation in Earth Science. With new satellite missions being launched every year, new types of Earth Science data are being incorporated into science models and decision-making systems in a broad array of organizations. These applications help hazard mitigation and decision-making in government, private, and civic institutions working to reduce its impact on human wellbeing. Policy guidance and knowledge of product maturity can influence mission design as well as development of product applications in user organizations. Ensuring that satellite missions serve both the scientific and user communities without becoming unfocused and overly expensive is a critical outcome from engagement of user communities. Tracking the applications and product maturity help improve the use of data. NASA's Applications Readiness Levels reduce cost and increase the confidence in applications. ARLs help identify areas where NASA products are most useful while allowing the user to leverage products in early development as well as those ready for operational uses. By considering the needs of the user community early on in the mission-design process, agencies can use ARLs to ensure that satellites meet the needs of multiple constituencies and the development of products are integrated into user organizations organically. ARLs and user integration provide a perspective on the maturity and readiness of a products ability to influence policy and decision-making. This paper describes the mission application development process at NASA and within the Earth Science Directorate. We present the successes and challenges faced by NASA data users and explain how ARLs helps link NASA science to the appropriate policies and decision frameworks. The methods presented here can be adapted to other programs and institutions seeking to rapidly move scientific research to applications that have societal impact.

Coordination of short-term and long-term mitigation measures of hydro-meteorological risks: the importance of establishing a link between emergency management and spatial planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prenger-Berninghoff, Kathrin; Cortes, V. Juliette; Aye, Zar Chi; Sprague, Teresa

2013-04-01

The management of natural hazards involves, as generally known, the four stages of the risk management cycle: Prevention, preparedness, response and recovery. Accordingly, the mitigation of disasters can be performed in terms of short-term and long-term purposes. Whereas emergency management or civil protection helps to strengthen a community's capacity to be better prepared for natural hazards and to better respond in case a disaster strikes, thus addressing the short-term perspective, spatial planning serves long-term planning goals and can therefore implement long-term prevention measures. A purposefully applied risk mitigation strategy requires coordination of short-term and long-term mitigation measures and thus an effective coordination of emergency management and spatial planning. Several actors are involved in risk management and should consequently be linked throughout the whole risk management cycle. However, these actors, partly because of a historically fragmented administrative system, are hardly connected to each other, with spatial planning only having a negligible role compared to other actors1, a problem to which Young (2002) referred to as the "problem of interplay". In contrast, information transfer and decision-taking happen at the same time and are not coordinated among different actors. This applies to the prevention and preparedness phase as well as to the recovery phase, which basically constitutes the prevention phase for the next disaster2. Since investments in both risk prevention and emergency preparedness and response are considered necessary, a better coordination of the two approaches is required. In this regard, Decision Support Systems (DSS) can be useful in order to provide support in the decision-making aspect of risk management. The research work currently undertaken examines the problem of interplay in the four case study areas of the Marie Curie ITN, CHANGES3. The link between different risk management actors will be explored by means of exploratory questionnaires and interviews with government agencies, local administrations, community and research organizations on each study site. First results provided will address the general role of spatial planning in risk management. Additionally, preliminary observations are made in regard to the coordination of emergency preparedness and long-term spatial planning activities. The observations consider that integration facilitates proactive strategies that aim at preventing disaster occurrence and promote interaction between involved parties. Finally, consideration is given to the potential use of a DSS tool to cover both aspects of spatial planning and emergency management in the risk management cycle.

Enhanced communication and coordination in the public health surveillance component of the Cincinnati Drinking Water Contamination Warning System.

PubMed

Dangel, Chrissy; Allgeier, Steven C; Gibbons, Darcy; Haas, Adam; Simon, Katie

2012-03-01

Effective communication and coordination are critical when investigating a possible drinking water contamination incident. A contamination warning system is designed to detect water contamination by initiating a coordinated, effective response to mitigate significant public health and economic consequences. This article describes historical communication barriers during water contamination incidents and discusses how these barriers were overcome through the public health surveillance component of the Cincinnati Drinking Water Contamination Warning System, referred to as the "Cincinnati Pilot." By enhancing partnerships in the public health surveillance component of the Cincinnati Pilot, information silos that existed in each organization were replaced with interagency information depots that facilitated effective decision making.

The impact of denying a direct-to-consumer advertised drug request on the patient/physician relationship.

PubMed

Blose, Julia E; Mack, Rhonda W

2009-01-01

Using a scenario-based approach, an experiment is conducted to test whether the decision a physician makes to deny a prescription request (when a patient has requested a drug he or she has seen in a direct-to-consumer [DTC] ad) significantly impacts patient outcomes such as patient satisfaction and compliance intentions. The results suggest physicians can expect patient response to the denial of such a request to vary by the patient's gender in addition to the criticality of the condition being treated. The results also suggest, when treating less critical conditions, a physician can mitigate the negative effects of a denial with relatively little additional effort.

Commentary: Pursuing justice in death penalty trials.

PubMed

Watson, Clarence; Eth, Spencer; Leong, Gregory B

2012-01-01

The capital trial, by its nature, is fraught with emotionally disturbing elements that jurors must face when deciding the ultimate fate of a guilty defendant. A confluence of mitigating and aggravating factors influences a capital jury's decision to impose a sentence of death. The presence or absence of defendant remorse in these cases may make all the difference in whether a capital defendant's life is spared. This commentary examines the onerous emotional toll encountered by capital jurors in light of the findings of Corwin and colleagues regarding defendant remorse and juror's need for affect. The commentary also presents practical and ethics-related considerations that should be kept in mind when reflecting on their study.

SLOSS or Not? Factoring Wetland Size Into Decisions for Wetland Conservation, Enhancement, Restoration, and Creation

EPA Science Inventory

Mitigation or replacement of several small impacted wetlands or sites with fewer large wetlands can occur deliberately through the application of functional assessment methods (e.g., Adamus 1997) or coincidentally as the result of market-based mechanisms for wetland mitigation ba...

A decision support tool to determine cost-to-benefit of a family-centered in-home program for at-risk adolescents.

PubMed

Wilson, Fernando A; Araz, Ozgur M; Thompson, Ronald W; Ringle, Jay L; Mason, W Alex; Stimpson, Jim P

2016-06-01

Family-centered program research has demonstrated its effectiveness in improving adolescent outcomes. However, given current fiscal constraints faced by governmental agencies, a recent report from the Institute of Medicine and National Research Council highlighted the need for cost-benefit analyses to inform decision making by policymakers. Furthermore, performance management tools such as balanced scorecards and dashboards do not generally include cost-benefit analyses. In this paper, we describe the development of an Excel-based decision support tool that can be used to evaluate a selected family-based program for at-risk children and adolescents relative to a comparison program or the status quo. This tool incorporates the use of an efficient, user-friendly interface with results provided in concise tabular and graphical formats that may be interpreted without need for substantial training in economic evaluation. To illustrate, we present an application of this tool to evaluate use of Boys Town's In-Home Family Services (IHFS) relative to detention and out-of-home placement in New York City. Use of the decision support tool can help mitigate the need for programs to contract experts in economic evaluation, especially when there are financial or time constraints. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Human papillomavirus vaccine acceptability and decision-making among adolescent boys and parents: A meta-ethnography of qualitative studies.

PubMed

Lacombe-Duncan, Ashley; Newman, Peter A; Baiden, Philip

2018-05-03

Genital warts and human papillomavirus (HPV)-associated cancers in men can be substantially reduced through HPV vaccination; yet, globally, HPV vaccine uptake among boys remains low. This meta-ethnography synthesizes qualitative studies to understand, in-depth, HPV vaccine acceptability and decision-making among adolescent boys and/or their parents. A systematic search identified qualitative studies examining HPV vaccines from the perspectives of boys and/or boys' parents. The Consolidated Criteria for Reporting Qualitative Research (COREQ) 32-item checklist was used to assess quality of reporting. Using meta-ethnographic techniques, we conducted a structured and iterative process of data analysis, coded original studies, and then developed descriptive and analytic themes to synthesize the findings. Review of 15 eligible studies (n = 3362 parents, n = 39 boys) revealed multilevel factors that influence HPV vaccine acceptability and decision-making among adolescent boys and their parents: (1) individual, e.g., low HPV vaccine knowledge/awareness, (2) interpersonal, e.g., key relationships between parents, sons, and healthcare providers (HCP), (3) community/societal, e.g., parental duty to protect, and (4) systemic, e.g., HPV vaccine messaging. Parents generally accepted adolescent boys' sexuality and the need for vaccination, motivated by wanting to protect their sons from HPV and HPV-associated cancers, and valued HCP-initiated discussion and recommendation. Acceptability was mitigated by low awareness/knowledge of HPV vaccines and low perceived benefits for boys, lack of HCP-initiated discussion, out-of-pocket costs, multiple doses, stigma, and mixed messages about HPV. Multilevel factors influence HPV vaccine acceptability and decision-making among parents and their adolescent sons. Providing clear and unambiguous messages about HPV vaccines-for whom (boys and girls), for what (genital warts and cancers in men), and when (before sexual debut)-through increased HCP-initiated discussion and targeted public health campaigns may support HPV vaccine uptake among boys. Future research should consistently disaggregate findings by sex of child and parent, and explore effective messaging tailored for boys and parents. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Overcoming Barriers: Tailoring Climate Education for Latino and non-Latino Citizen to Impact Decision Making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Estrada, M.; Boudrias, M. A.; Silva-Send, N. J.; Gershunov, A.; Anders, S.

2013-12-01

Culture has been shown to be an important determinant of Latino/Hispanic American environmental attitudes (Schultz, Unipan, & Gamba, 2000), which might help to explain the underrepresentation of Latinos in the U.S. 'environmental' movement. With shifting U.S. demographics, however, there is increased urgency to understand how Latinos integrate into the community that is concerned and literate about climate change. As part of the Climate Education Partners (CEP) work in San Diego, we investigated how to address this ethnic group disparity. In this paper, we describe a study of how climate change science knowledge relates to Latino and Non-Latino citizen (a) engagement in conservation behaviors and (b) more informed decision-making. Drawing upon previous work on the Tripartite Integration Model of Social Influence (TIMSI) (Estrada et al., 2011), we hypothesized that climate change knowledge that promotes efficacy (i.e., a sense that one can do something) would relate to greater engagement in conservation behaviors and more informed decision-making (both common of community members concerned about climate change). To test this model, 1001 San Diego residence participated in a telephone survey in which the attitudes towards climate change were assessed using '6 Americas' segmentation (Leiserowitz et al., 2011), in addition to climate change science knowledge, efficacy, values, and engagement in weekly and yearly climate change friendly behaviors (e.g., conservation, transportation, community engagement behaviors). Results showed that there were significant differences in the 6 America segmentation distributions, knowledge, efficacy and behavioral engagement with Latinos significantly more concerned than Non-Latinos, and reporting greater knowledge, efficacy and engagement in behaviors. However, data from both groups showed support for the TIMSI theoretical framework, such that efficacy mediated the relationship between climate change knowledge and behavior. Thus, for both groups, climate change science knowledge was more likely to result in behavioral engagement when the science knowledge was accompanied with the belief that one has the ability to engage in behaviors that mitigate or adapt to climate change (i.e., efficacy). Implications for how to improve both Latino and Non-Latino climate change education that results in informed decision-making and greater integration into the community concerned about climate change will be discussed.

Application of Regional Drought and Crop Yield Information System to enhance drought monitoring and forecasting in Lower Mekong region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jayasinghe, S.; Dutta, R.; Basnayake, S. B.; Granger, S. L.; Andreadis, K. M.; Das, N.; Markert, K. N.; Cutter, P. G.; Towashiraporn, P.; Anderson, E.

2017-12-01

The Lower Mekong Region has been experiencing frequent and prolonged droughts resulting in severe damage to agricultural production leading to food insecurity and impacts on livelihoods of the farming communities. Climate variability further complicates the situation by making drought harder to forecast. The Regional Drought and Crop Yield Information System (RDCYIS), developed by SERVIR-Mekong, helps decision makers to take effective measures through monitoring, analyzing and forecasting of drought conditions and providing early warnings to farmers to make adjustments to cropping calendars. The RDCYIS is built on regionally calibrated Regional Hydrologic Extreme Assessment System (RHEAS) framework that integrates the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) and Decision Support System for Agro-technology Transfer (DSSAT) models, allowing both nowcast and forecast of drought. The RHEAS allows ingestion of numerus freely available earth observation and ground observation data to generate and customize drought related indices, variables and crop yield information for better decision making. The Lower Mekong region has experienced severe drought in 2016 encompassing the region's worst drought in 90 years. This paper presents the simulation of the 2016 drought event using RDCYIS based on its hindcast and forecast capabilities. The regionally calibrated RDCYIS can help capture salient features of drought through a variety of drought indices, soil variables, energy balance variables and water balance variables. The RDCYIS is capable of assimilating soil moisture data from different satellite products and perform ensemble runs to further reduce the uncertainty of it outputs. The calibrated results have correlation coefficient around 0.73 and NSE between 0.4-0.5. Based on the acceptable results of the retrospective runs, the system has the potential to generate reliable drought monitoring and forecasting information to improve decision-makings at operational, technological and institutional level of mandated institutes of lower Mekong countries. This is turn would help countries to prepare for and respond to drought situations by taking short and long-term risk mitigation measures such as adjusting cropping calendars, rainwater harvesting, and so on.

'Everyone has an agenda': Professionals' understanding and negotiation of risk within the Guardianship system of Victoria, Australia.

PubMed

Wyllie, Aaron; Saunders, Bernadette J

2018-02-19

It is frequently asserted that pressures to assess and manage risk have eroded the therapeutic, rights-based foundation of the human services profession. Some argue that human service workers operate in a culture of fear in which self-protection and blame avoidance, rather than clients' needs, primarily drive decision-making. In the field of Adult Guardianship, it has been suggested that organisational risk avoidance may be motivating applications for substitute decision-makers, unnecessarily curtailing clients' rights and freedoms. However, the absence of research examining the operation of risk within Guardianship decision-making inhibits verifying and responding to this very serious suggestion. This article draws on semi-structured interviews conducted with 10 professionals involved in the Victorian Guardianship system, which explored how issues of risk are perceived and negotiated in everyday practice. Risk was found to be a complex and subjective construct which can present both dangers and opportunities for Guardianship practitioners and their clients. While a number of participants reported that Guardianship might sometimes operate as an avenue for mitigating the fear and uncertainty of risk, most participants also valued positive risk-taking and were willing, in their clients' interests, to challenge conservative logics of risk. These findings highlight the need for further research which examines how service providers and policy makers can create spaces that support open discussions around issues of risk and address practitioners' sense of fear and vulnerability. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

How to deal with climate change uncertainty in the planning of engineering systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spackova, Olga; Dittes, Beatrice; Straub, Daniel

2016-04-01

The effect of extreme events such as floods on the infrastructure and built environment is associated with significant uncertainties: These include the uncertain effect of climate change, uncertainty on extreme event frequency estimation due to limited historic data and imperfect models, and, not least, uncertainty on future socio-economic developments, which determine the damage potential. One option for dealing with these uncertainties is the use of adaptable (flexible) infrastructure that can easily be adjusted in the future without excessive costs. The challenge is in quantifying the value of adaptability and in finding the optimal sequence of decision. Is it worth to build a (potentially more expensive) adaptable system that can be adjusted in the future depending on the future conditions? Or is it more cost-effective to make a conservative design without counting with the possible future changes to the system? What is the optimal timing of the decision to build/adjust the system? We develop a quantitative decision-support framework for evaluation of alternative infrastructure designs under uncertainties, which: • probabilistically models the uncertain future (trough a Bayesian approach) • includes the adaptability of the systems (the costs of future changes) • takes into account the fact that future decisions will be made under uncertainty as well (using pre-posterior decision analysis) • allows to identify the optimal capacity and optimal timing to build/adjust the infrastructure. Application of the decision framework will be demonstrated on an example of flood mitigation planning in Bavaria.

Integrating observations and models to help understanding how flooding impacts upon catchments as a basis for decision making.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Owen, Gareth; Quinn, Paul; O'Donnell, Greg

2014-05-01

This paper explains how flood management projects might be better informed in the future by using more observations and a novel impact modelling tool in a simple transparent framework. The understanding of how local scale impacts propagate downstream to impact on the downstream hydrograph is difficult to determine using traditional rainfall runoff and hydraulic routing methods. The traditional approach to modelling essentially comprises selecting a fixed model structure and then calibrating to an observational hydrograph, which make those model predictions highly uncertain. Here, a novel approach is used in which the structure of the runoff generation is not specified a priori and incorporates expert knowledge. Rather than using externally for calibration, the observed outlet hydrographs are used directly within the model. Essentially the approach involves the disaggregation of the outlet hydrograph by making assumptions about the spatial distribution of runoff generated. The channel network is parameterised through a comparison of the timing of observed hydrographs at a number of nested locations within the catchment. The user is then encouraged to use their expert knowledge to define how runoff is generated locally and what the likely impact of any local mitigation is. Therefore the user can specify any hydrological model or flow estimation method that captures their expertise. Equally, the user is encouraged to install as many instruments as they can afford to cover the catchment network. A Decision Support Matrix (DSM) is used to encapsulate knowledge of the runoff dynamics gained from simulation in a simple visual way and hence to convey the likely impacts that arise from a given flood management scenario. This tool has been designed primarily to inform and educate landowners, catchment managers and decision makers. The DSM outlines scenarios that are likely to increase or decrease runoff rates and allows the user to contemplate the implications and uncertainty of their decisions. The tool can also be used to map the likely changes in flood peak due to land use management options. An example case study will be shown for a 35km2 catchment in Northern England which is prone to flooding. The method encourages end users to instrument and quantify their own catchment network and to make informed, evidence based decisions appropriate to their own flooding problems.

Dynamic Management of Releases for the Delaware River Basin using NYC's Operations Support Tool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weiss, W.; Wang, L.; Murphy, T.; Muralidhar, D.; Tarrier, B.

2011-12-01

The New York City Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) has initiated design of an Operations Support Tool (OST), a state-of-the-art decision support system to provide computational and predictive support for water supply operations and planning. Using an interim version of OST, DEP and the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation (DEC) have developed a provisional, one-year Delaware River Basin reservoir release program to succeed the existing Flexible Flow Management Program (FFMP) which expired on May 31, 2011. The FFMP grew out of the Good Faith Agreement of 1983 among the four Basin states (New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Delaware) that established modified diversions and flow targets during drought conditions. It provided a set of release schedules as a framework for managing diversions and releases from New York City's Delaware Basin reservoirs in order to support multiple objectives, including water supply, drought mitigation, flood mitigation, tailwaters fisheries, main stem habitat, recreation, and salinity repulsion. The provisional program (OST-FFMP) defines available water based on current Upper Delaware reservoir conditions and probabilistic forecasts of reservoir inflow. Releases are then set based on a set of release schedules keyed to the water availability. Additionally, OST-FFMP attempts to provide enhanced downstream flood protection by making spill mitigation releases to keep the Delaware System reservoirs at a seasonally varying conditional storage objective. The OST-FFMP approach represents a more robust way of managing downstream releases, accounting for predicted future hydrologic conditions by making more water available for release when conditions are forecasted to be wet and protecting water supply reliability when conditions are forecasted to be dry. Further, the dynamic nature of the program allows the release decision to be adjusted as hydrologic conditions change. OST simulations predict that this program can provide substantial benefits for downstream stakeholders while protecting DEP's ability to ensure a reliable water supply for 9 million customers in NYC and the surrounding communities. The one-year nature of the program will allow for DEP and the Decree Parties to evaluate and improve the program in the future. This paper will describe the OST-FFMP program and discuss preliminary observations on its performance based on key NYC and downstream stakeholder performance metrics.

Prevention, Rehabilitation, and Mitigation Strategies of Cognitive Deficits in Aging with HIV: Implications for Practice and Research

PubMed Central

Vance, David E.

2013-01-01

Highly active antiretroviral therapy has given the chance to those living with HIV to keep on living, allowing them the opportunity to age and perhaps age successfully. Yet, there are severe challenges to successful aging with HIV, one of which is cognitive deficits. Nearly half of those with HIV experience cognitive deficits that can interfere with everyday functioning, medical decision making, and quality of life. Given that cognitive deficits develop with more frequency and intensity with increasing age, concerns mount that as people age with HIV, they may experience more severe cognitive deficits. These concerns become especially germane given that by 2015, 50% of those with HIV will be 50 and older, and this older cohort of adults is expected to grow. As such, this paper focuses on the etiologies of such cognitive deficits within the context of cognitive reserve and neuroplasticity. From this, evidence-based and hypothetical prevention (i.e., cognitive prescriptions), rehabilitation (i.e., speed of processing training), and mitigation (i.e., spaced retrieval method) strategies are reviewed. Implications for nursing practice and research are posited. PMID:23431469

Risk Aversion and Public Reporting. Part 2: Mitigation Strategies.

PubMed

Shahian, David M; Jacobs, Jeffrey P; Badhwar, Vinay; D'Agostino, Richard S; Bavaria, Joseph E; Prager, Richard L

2017-12-01

Part 1 of this review summarizes the consequences of risk aversion and the observational studies and surveys relevant to this phenomenon, almost all of which are derived from cardiac surgery and interventional cardiology. In Part 2, we describe the root cause of risk aversion-the belief by providers that current risk adjustment is inadequate to account for the severity of their highest-risk patients, thereby prejudicing their publicly reported performance scores. Evidence supporting the robustness of current risk adjustment is presented, as well as nine potential strategies to further mitigate risk aversion: optimization of data source, risk models, and performance measures; exclusion of high-risk patients; exclusion of non-procedure-related end points; separate reporting of high-risk patients; reporting by condition or diagnosis rather than by procedures; reporting at the hospital or program level rather than the physician level; collaborative, cross-disciplinary decision making; active surveillance for risk aversion; and improved stakeholder education. Of these, the first is most desirable, widely applicable, and resistant to gaming. Copyright © 2017 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A method for estimating cost savings for population health management programs.

PubMed

Murphy, Shannon M E; McGready, John; Griswold, Michael E; Sylvia, Martha L

2013-04-01

To develop a quasi-experimental method for estimating Population Health Management (PHM) program savings that mitigates common sources of confounding, supports regular updates for continued program monitoring, and estimates model precision. Administrative, program, and claims records from January 2005 through June 2009. Data are aggregated by member and month. Study participants include chronically ill adult commercial health plan members. The intervention group consists of members currently enrolled in PHM, stratified by intensity level. Comparison groups include (1) members never enrolled, and (2) PHM participants not currently enrolled. Mixed model smoothing is employed to regress monthly medical costs on time (in months), a history of PHM enrollment, and monthly program enrollment by intensity level. Comparison group trends are used to estimate expected costs for intervention members. Savings are realized when PHM participants' costs are lower than expected. This method mitigates many of the limitations faced using traditional pre-post models for estimating PHM savings in an observational setting, supports replication for ongoing monitoring, and performs basic statistical inference. This method provides payers with a confident basis for making investment decisions. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

Modeling for Ecosystem Services: Challenges and Opportunities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guswa, A. J.; Brauman, K. A.; Ghile, Y.

2012-12-01

Ecosystem services are those values provided to human society by the structure and processes of ecosystems and landscapes. Water-related services include the transformation of precipitation impulses into supplies of water for hydropower, irrigation, and industrial and municipal uses, the retention and removal of applied nutrients and pollutants, flood-damage mitigation, recreation, and the provision of cultural and aesthetic values. Incorporation of changes to the value of these services in land-use planning and decision making requires identification of the relevant services, engagement of stakeholders, knowledge of how land-use changes impact water quality, quantity, and timing, and mechanisms for putting value on the hydrologic and biogeochemical changes. We present three examples that highlight the characteristics, challenges, and opportunities associated with prototypical decisions that incorporate ecosystem services values: scenario analysis, payment for ecosystem services, and optimal spatial planning. Through these examples, we emphasize the challenges of data availability, model resolution and complexity, and attribution of value. We also provide some suggestions for ways forward.

A generalized fuzzy linear programming approach for environmental management problem under uncertainty.

PubMed

Fan, Yurui; Huang, Guohe; Veawab, Amornvadee

2012-01-01

In this study, a generalized fuzzy linear programming (GFLP) method was developed to deal with uncertainties expressed as fuzzy sets that exist in the constraints and objective function. A stepwise interactive algorithm (SIA) was advanced to solve GFLP model and generate solutions expressed as fuzzy sets. To demonstrate its application, the developed GFLP method was applied to a regional sulfur dioxide (SO2) control planning model to identify effective SO2 mitigation polices with a minimized system performance cost under uncertainty. The results were obtained to represent the amount of SO2 allocated to different control measures from different sources. Compared with the conventional interval-parameter linear programming (ILP) approach, the solutions obtained through GFLP were expressed as fuzzy sets, which can provide intervals for the decision variables and objective function, as well as related possibilities. Therefore, the decision makers can make a tradeoff between model stability and the plausibility based on solutions obtained through GFLP and then identify desired policies for SO2-emission control under uncertainty.

Application of the predicted heat strain model in development of localized, threshold-based heat stress management guidelines for the construction industry.

PubMed

Rowlinson, Steve; Jia, Yunyan Andrea

2014-04-01

Existing heat stress risk management guidelines recommended by international standards are not practical for the construction industry which needs site supervision staff to make instant managerial decisions to mitigate heat risks. The ability of the predicted heat strain (PHS) model [ISO 7933 (2004). Ergonomics of the thermal environment analytical determination and interpretation of heat stress using calculation of the predicted heat strain. Geneva: International Standard Organisation] to predict maximum allowable exposure time (D lim) has now enabled development of localized, action-triggering and threshold-based guidelines for implementation by lay frontline staff on construction sites. This article presents a protocol for development of two heat stress management tools by applying the PHS model to its full potential. One of the tools is developed to facilitate managerial decisions on an optimized work-rest regimen for paced work. The other tool is developed to enable workers' self-regulation during self-paced work.

Towards a New Food System Assessment: AgMIP Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments of Climate Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rosenzweig, Cynthia E.; Thorburn, Peter

2017-01-01

Agricultural stakeholders need more credible information on which to base adaptation and mitigation policy decisions. In order to provide this, we must improve the rigor of agricultural modelling. Ensemble approaches can be used to address scale issues and integrated teams can overcome disciplinary silos. The AgMIP Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments of Climate Change and Food Security (CGRA) has the goal to link agricultural systems models using common protocols and scenarios to significantly improve understanding of climate effects on crops, livestock and livelihoods across multiple scales. The AgMIP CGRA assessment brings together experts in climate, crop, livestock, economics, and food security to develop Protocols to guide the process throughout the assessment. Scenarios are designed to consistently combine elements of intertwined storylines of future society including, socioeconomic development, greenhouse gas concentrations, and specific pathways of agricultural sector development. Through these approaches, AgMIP partners around the world are providing an evidence base for their stakeholders as they make decisions and investments.

Integrating observation and statistical forecasts over sub-Saharan Africa to support Famine Early Warning

USGS Publications Warehouse

Funk, Chris; Verdin, James P.; Husak, Gregory

2007-01-01

Famine early warning in Africa presents unique challenges and rewards. Hydrologic extremes must be tracked and anticipated over complex and changing climate regimes. The successful anticipation and interpretation of hydrologic shocks can initiate effective government response, saving lives and softening the impacts of droughts and floods. While both monitoring and forecast technologies continue to advance, discontinuities between monitoring and forecast systems inhibit effective decision making. Monitoring systems typically rely on high resolution satellite remote-sensed normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and rainfall imagery. Forecast systems provide information on a variety of scales and formats. Non-meteorologists are often unable or unwilling to connect the dots between these disparate sources of information. To mitigate these problem researchers at UCSB's Climate Hazard Group, NASA GIMMS and USGS/EROS are implementing a NASA-funded integrated decision support system that combines the monitoring of precipitation and NDVI with statistical one-to-three month forecasts. We present the monitoring/forecast system, assess its accuracy, and demonstrate its application in food insecure sub-Saharan Africa.

A water resources simulation gaming model for the Invitational Drought Tournament.

PubMed

Wang, K; Davies, E G R

2015-09-01

A system dynamics-based simulation gaming model, developed as a component of Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada's Invitational Drought Tournament (IDT; Hill et al., 2014), is introduced in this paper as a decision support tool for drought management at the river-basin scale. This IDT Model provides a comprehensive and integrated overview of drought conditions, and illustrates the broad effects of socio-economic drought and mitigation strategies. It is intended to provide a safe, user-friendly experimental environment with fast run-times for testing management options, and to promote collaborative decision-making and consensus building. Examples of model results from several recent IDT events demonstrate potential effects of drought and the short-to longer-term effectiveness of policies selected by IDT teams; such results have also improved teams' understanding of the complexity of water resources systems and their management trade-offs. The IDT Model structure and framework can also be reconfigured quickly for application to different river basins. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Risk-Based Strategy for Evaluating Mitigation Options for Process-Formed Compounds in Food: Workshop Proceedings.

PubMed

Hanlon, Paul; Brorby, Gregory P; Krishan, Mansi

2016-05-01

Processing (eg, cooking, grinding, drying) has changed the composition of food throughout the course of human history; however, awareness of process-formed compounds, and the potential need to mitigate exposure to those compounds, is a relatively recent phenomenon. In May 2015, the North American Branch of the International Life Sciences Institute (ILSI North America) Technical Committee on Food and Chemical Safety held a workshop on the risk-based process for mitigation of process-formed compounds. This workshop aimed to gain alignment from academia, government, and industry on a risk-based process for proactively assessing the need for and benefit of mitigation of process-formed compounds, including criteria to objectively assess the impact of mitigation as well as research needed to support this process. Workshop participants provided real-time feedback on a draft framework in the form of a decision tree developed by the ILSI North America Technical Committee on Food and Chemical Safety to a panel of experts, and they discussed the importance of communicating the value of such a process to the larger scientific community and, ultimately, the public. The outcome of the workshop was a decision tree that can be used by the scientific community and could form the basis of a global approach to assessing the risks associated with mitigation of process-formed compounds. © The Author(s) 2016.

A Risk-Based Strategy for Evaluating Mitigation Options for Process-Formed Compounds in Food

PubMed Central

Brorby, Gregory P.; Krishan, Mansi

2016-01-01

Processing (eg, cooking, grinding, drying) has changed the composition of food throughout the course of human history; however, awareness of process-formed compounds, and the potential need to mitigate exposure to those compounds, is a relatively recent phenomenon. In May 2015, the North American Branch of the International Life Sciences Institute (ILSI North America) Technical Committee on Food and Chemical Safety held a workshop on the risk-based process for mitigation of process-formed compounds. This workshop aimed to gain alignment from academia, government, and industry on a risk-based process for proactively assessing the need for and benefit of mitigation of process-formed compounds, including criteria to objectively assess the impact of mitigation as well as research needed to support this process. Workshop participants provided real-time feedback on a draft framework in the form of a decision tree developed by the ILSI North America Technical Committee on Food and Chemical Safety to a panel of experts, and they discussed the importance of communicating the value of such a process to the larger scientific community and, ultimately, the public. The outcome of the workshop was a decision tree that can be used by the scientific community and could form the basis of a global approach to assessing the risks associated with mitigation of process-formed compounds. PMID:27102178

The ITER disruption mitigation trigger: developing its preliminary design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pautasso, G.; de Vries, P. C.; Humphreys, D.; Lehnen, M.; Rapson, C.; Raupp, G.; Snipes, J. A.; Treutterer, W.; Vergara-Fernandez, A.; Zabeo, L.

2018-03-01

A concept for the generation of the trigger for the ITER disruption mitigation system is described in this paper. The issuing of the trigger will be the result of a complex decision process, taken by the plasma control system, or by the central interlock system, determining that the plasma is unavoidably going to disrupt—or has disrupted—and that a fast mitigated shut-down is required. Given the redundancy of the mitigation system, the plasma control system must also formulate an injection scheme and specify when and how the injectors of the mitigation system should be activated. The parameters and the conceptual algorithms required for the configuration and generation of the trigger are discussed.

Dynamic combination of sensory and reward information under time pressure

PubMed Central

Farashahi, Shiva; Kao, Chang-Hao

2018-01-01

When making choices, collecting more information is beneficial but comes at the cost of sacrificing time that could be allocated to making other potentially rewarding decisions. To investigate how the brain balances these costs and benefits, we conducted a series of novel experiments in humans and simulated various computational models. Under six levels of time pressure, subjects made decisions either by integrating sensory information over time or by dynamically combining sensory and reward information over time. We found that during sensory integration, time pressure reduced performance as the deadline approached, and choice was more strongly influenced by the most recent sensory evidence. By fitting performance and reaction time with various models we found that our experimental results are more compatible with leaky integration of sensory information with an urgency signal or a decision process based on stochastic transitions between discrete states modulated by an urgency signal. When combining sensory and reward information, subjects spent less time on integration than optimally prescribed when reward decreased slowly over time, and the most recent evidence did not have the maximal influence on choice. The suboptimal pattern of reaction time was partially mitigated in an equivalent control experiment in which sensory integration over time was not required, indicating that the suboptimal response time was influenced by the perception of imperfect sensory integration. Meanwhile, during combination of sensory and reward information, performance did not drop as the deadline approached, and response time was not different between correct and incorrect trials. These results indicate a decision process different from what is involved in the integration of sensory information over time. Together, our results not only reveal limitations in sensory integration over time but also illustrate how these limitations influence dynamic combination of sensory and reward information. PMID:29584717

Does Tropical Cyclone Modification Make Sense? A Decision-Analytic Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klima, K.; Morgan, M. G.; Grossmann, I.

2009-12-01

Since the demise of project Stormfury in 1983, little attention has been devoted to the possibility of intentionally modifying tropical cyclones (TC). However, following Hurricane Katrina and three other Category 5 hurricanes (Emily, Rita, and Wilma), which together resulted in at least 2,280 deaths and over $120-billion in damages (Blake et al., 2007), the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has recently begun to support an effort to identify and evaluate hurricane mitigation strategies through Project HURRMIT ([http://www.ofcm.noaa.gov/ihc09/Presentations/Session10/s10-01Woodley.ppt]). Using a decision analytic framing and FEMA's HAZUS-MH MR3 damage model (http://www.fema.gov/plan/prevent/hazus/]), this paper asks, how sure must one be that an intervention will reduce TC damages before choosing to undertake a program of modification? The analysis is formulated in probabilistic terms, and assesses net benefits. In contrast to a much earlier application of decision analysis to TC-modification (Howard et al., 1972) , this work uses census data on the value of property at risk, and prior distributions on changing storm behavior based on data from hurricanes approaching the east coast of Florida since 1953. Even before considering both issues of liability that may arise from the fact that a modified storm is no longer "an act of God" as well as unforeseen environmental consequences, our results suggest that while TC modification techniques will likely alter TC behavior, one will have to be significantly more confident of the predictability and effectiveness of modification methods before their use can be justified. This work is supported by the Climate Decision Making Center through a cooperative agreement between the National Science Foundation (SES-0345798) and Carnegie Mellon University.

Implications of climate change predictions for UK cropping and prospects for possible mitigation: a review of challenges and potential responses.

PubMed

Rial-Lovera, Karen; Davies, W Paul; Cannon, Nicola D

2017-01-01

The UK, like the rest of the world, is confronting the impacts of climate change. Further changes are expected and they will have a profound effect on agriculture. Future crop production will take place against increasing CO 2 levels and temperatures, decreasing water availability, and increasing frequency of extreme weather events. This review contributes to research on agricultural practices for climate change, but with a more regional perspective. The present study explores climate change impacts on UK agriculture, particularly food crop production, and how to mitigate and build resilience to climate change by adopting and/or changing soil management practices, including fertilisation and tillage systems, new crop adoption and variety choice. Some mitigation can be adopted in the shorter term, such as changes in crop type and reduction in fertiliser use, but in other cases the options will need greater investment and longer adaptation period. This is the case for new crop variety development and deployment, and possible changes to soil cultivations. Uncertainty of future weather conditions, particularly extreme weather, also affect decision-making for adoption of practices by farmers to ensure more stable and sustainable production. Even when there is real potential for climate change mitigation, it can sometimes be more difficult to accomplish with certainty on-farm. Better future climate projections and long-term investments will be required to create more resilient agricultural systems in the UK in the face of climate change challenges. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry.

Improving decision making in crisis.

PubMed

Higgins, Guy; Freedman, Jennifer

2013-01-01

The most critical activity during emergencies or crises is making decisions about what to do next. This paper provides insights into the challenges that people face in making decisions at any time, but particularly during emergencies and crises. It also introduces the reader to the concept of different sense-making/decision-making domains, the human behaviours that can adversely affect decision making - decision derailers - and ways in which emergency responders can leverage this knowledge to make better decisions. While the literature on decision making is extensive, this paper is focused on those aspects that apply particularly to decision making in emergencies or times of crisis.

The contribution of sectoral climate change mitigation options to national targets: a quantitative assessment of dairy production in Kenya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brandt, Patric; Herold, Martin; Rufino, Mariana C.

2018-03-01

Reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agriculture has become a critical target in national climate change policies. More than 80% of the countries in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) refer to the reduction of agricultural emissions, including livestock, in their nationally determined contribution (NDC) to mitigate climate change. The livestock sector in Kenya contributes largely to the gross domestic product and to GHG emissions from the land use sector. The government has recently pledged in its NDC to curb total GHG emissions by 30% by 2030. Quantifying and linking the mitigation potential of farm practices to national targets is required to support realistically the implementation of NDCs. Improvements in feed and manure management represent promising mitigation options for dairy production. This study aimed (i) to assess mitigation and food production benefits of feed and manure management scenarios, including land use changes covering Kenya’s entire dairy production region and (ii) to analyse the contribution of these practices to national targets on milk production and mitigation, and their biophysical feasibility given the availability of arable land. The results indicate that improving forage quality by increasing the use of Napier grass and supplementing dairy concentrates supports Kenya’s NDC target, reduces emission intensities by 26%-31%, partially achieves the national milk productivity target for 2030 by 38%-41%, and shows high feasibility given the availability of arable land. Covering manure heaps may reduce emissions from manure management by 68%. In contrast, including maize silage in cattle diets would not reduce emission intensities due to the risk of ten-fold higher emissions from the conversion of land required to grow additional maize. The shortage of arable land may render the implementation of these improved feed practices largely infeasible. This assessment provides the first quantitative estimates of the potential of feed intensification and manure management to mitigate GHG emissions and to increase milk yields at sectoral-level and at a high spatial resolution for an SSA country. The scientific evidence is tailored to support actual policy and decision-making processes at the national level, such as ‘Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions’. Linking feed intensification and manure management strategies with spatially-explicit estimates of mitigation and food production to national targets may help the sector to access climate financing while contributing to food security.

Screening and prioritisation of chemical risks from metal mining operations, identifying exposure media of concern.

PubMed

Pan, Jilang; Oates, Christopher J; Ihlenfeld, Christian; Plant, Jane A; Voulvoulis, Nikolaos

2010-04-01

Metals have been central to the development of human civilisation from the Bronze Age to modern times, although in the past, metal mining and smelting have been the cause of serious environmental pollution with the potential to harm human health. Despite problems from artisanal mining in some developing countries, modern mining to Western standards now uses the best available mining technology combined with environmental monitoring, mitigation and remediation measures to limit emissions to the environment. This paper develops risk screening and prioritisation methods previously used for contaminated land on military and civilian sites and engineering systems for the analysis and prioritisation of chemical risks from modern metal mining operations. It uses hierarchical holographic modelling and multi-criteria decision making to analyse and prioritise the risks from potentially hazardous inorganic chemical substances released by mining operations. A case study of an active platinum group metals mine in South Africa is used to demonstrate the potential of the method. This risk-based methodology for identifying, filtering and ranking mining-related environmental and human health risks can be used to identify exposure media of greatest concern to inform risk management. It also provides a practical decision-making tool for mine acquisition and helps to communicate risk to all members of mining operation teams.

The Essential Elements of a Risk Governance Framework for Current and Future Nanotechnologies.

PubMed

Stone, Vicki; Führ, Martin; Feindt, Peter H; Bouwmeester, Hans; Linkov, Igor; Sabella, Stefania; Murphy, Finbarr; Bizer, Kilian; Tran, Lang; Ågerstrand, Marlene; Fito, Carlos; Andersen, Torben; Anderson, Diana; Bergamaschi, Enrico; Cherrie, John W; Cowan, Sue; Dalemcourt, Jean-Francois; Faure, Michael; Gabbert, Silke; Gajewicz, Agnieszka; Fernandes, Teresa F; Hristozov, Danail; Johnston, Helinor J; Lansdown, Terry C; Linder, Stefan; Marvin, Hans J P; Mullins, Martin; Purnhagen, Kai; Puzyn, Tomasz; Sanchez Jimenez, Araceli; Scott-Fordsmand, Janeck J; Streftaris, George; van Tongeren, Martie; Voelcker, Nicolas H; Voyiatzis, George; Yannopoulos, Spyros N; Poortvliet, P Marijn

2017-12-14

Societies worldwide are investing considerable resources into the safe development and use of nanomaterials. Although each of these protective efforts is crucial for governing the risks of nanomaterials, they are insufficient in isolation. What is missing is a more integrative governance approach that goes beyond legislation. Development of this approach must be evidence based and involve key stakeholders to ensure acceptance by end users. The challenge is to develop a framework that coordinates the variety of actors involved in nanotechnology and civil society to facilitate consideration of the complex issues that occur in this rapidly evolving research and development area. Here, we propose three sets of essential elements required to generate an effective risk governance framework for nanomaterials. (1) Advanced tools to facilitate risk-based decision making, including an assessment of the needs of users regarding risk assessment, mitigation, and transfer. (2) An integrated model of predicted human behavior and decision making concerning nanomaterial risks. (3) Legal and other (nano-specific and general) regulatory requirements to ensure compliance and to stimulate proactive approaches to safety. The implementation of such an approach should facilitate and motivate good practice for the various stakeholders to allow the safe and sustainable future development of nanotechnology. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

A Multi-Objective Decision Making Approach for Solving the Image Segmentation Fusion Problem.

PubMed

Khelifi, Lazhar; Mignotte, Max

2017-08-01

Image segmentation fusion is defined as the set of methods which aim at merging several image segmentations, in a manner that takes full advantage of the complementarity of each one. Previous relevant researches in this field have been impeded by the difficulty in identifying an appropriate single segmentation fusion criterion, providing the best possible, i.e., the more informative, result of fusion. In this paper, we propose a new model of image segmentation fusion based on multi-objective optimization which can mitigate this problem, to obtain a final improved result of segmentation. Our fusion framework incorporates the dominance concept in order to efficiently combine and optimize two complementary segmentation criteria, namely, the global consistency error and the F-measure (precision-recall) criterion. To this end, we present a hierarchical and efficient way to optimize the multi-objective consensus energy function related to this fusion model, which exploits a simple and deterministic iterative relaxation strategy combining the different image segments. This step is followed by a decision making task based on the so-called "technique for order performance by similarity to ideal solution". Results obtained on two publicly available databases with manual ground truth segmentations clearly show that our multi-objective energy-based model gives better results than the classical mono-objective one.

Leveraging consumer's behaviour to promote generic drugs in Italy.

PubMed

Zerbini, Cristina; Luceri, Beatrice; Vergura, Donata Tania

2017-04-01

The aim of this study was to fill the lack of knowledge regarding a more grounded exploration of the consumer's decision-making process in the context of generic drugs. In this perspective, a model, within the theoretical framework of the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB), for studying the consumers' purchase intention of generic drugs was developed. An online survey on 2,222 Italian people who bought drugs in the past was conducted. The proposed model was tested through structural equation modelling (SEM). Almost all the constructs considered in the model, except the perceived behavioural control, contribute to explain the consumer's purchase intention of generic drugs, after controlling for demographic variables (age, income, education). Specifically, attitude, subjective norm, past behaviour, self-identity and trust in the pharmacist have a positive influence on the intention to buy generic drugs. On the contrary, perceived risk towards products and brand sensitivity act negatively. The results of the present study could be useful to public policy makers in developing effective policies and educational campaigns aimed at promoting generic drugs. Specifically, marketing efforts should be directed to inform consumers about the generic drugs' characteristics to mitigate the perceived risk towards these products and to raise awareness during their decision-making process. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Indicators on economic risk from global climate change.

PubMed

Grossmann, Wolf D; Steininger, Karl; Grossmann, Iris; Magaard, Lorenz

2009-08-15

Climate change mitigation requires a rapid decrease of global emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) from their present value of 8.4 Gt/C/year to, as of current knowledge, approximately 1 GtC/year by the end of the century. The necessary decrease of GHG emissions will have large impacts on existing and new investments with long lifetimes, such coal-fired power plants or buildings. Strategic decision making for major investments can be facilitated by indicators that express the likelihood of costly retrofitting or shut-down of carbon intensive equipment over time. We provide a set of simple indicators that support assessment and decision making in this field. Given a certain emissions target, carbon allowance prices in a cap-and-trade plan will depend on the development of the global economy and the degree to which the target is approached on the global and national levels. The indicators measure the degree to which a given emissions target is approached nationally and assess risks for long-lived investments subject to a range of emissions targets. A comparative case study on existing coal-fired power plants with planned plants and utility-scale photovoltaic power-plants confirms that high risk for coal-fired power plants is emerging. New legislation further confirms this result.

78 FR 49251 - Notice of Decision To Authorize the Importation of Fresh Pitayas and Pomegranates From Mexico...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-08-13

... in the commenter's State. In particular, the commenter stated that irradiation at the proposed... commenter also stated that the required proposed irradiation does not mitigate the risk of the surface... proposed mitigation for surface feeders on these commodities is not irradiation, but [[Page 49252...

QuEST for malware type-classification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vaughan, Sandra L.; Mills, Robert F.; Grimaila, Michael R.; Peterson, Gilbert L.; Oxley, Mark E.; Dube, Thomas E.; Rogers, Steven K.

2015-05-01

Current cyber-related security and safety risks are unprecedented, due in no small part to information overload and skilled cyber-analyst shortages. Advances in decision support and Situation Awareness (SA) tools are required to support analysts in risk mitigation. Inspired by human intelligence, research in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Computational Intelligence (CI) have provided successful engineering solutions in complex domains including cyber. Current AI approaches aggregate large volumes of data to infer the general from the particular, i.e. inductive reasoning (pattern-matching) and generally cannot infer answers not previously programmed. Whereas humans, rarely able to reason over large volumes of data, have successfully reached the top of the food chain by inferring situations from partial or even partially incorrect information, i.e. abductive reasoning (pattern-completion); generating a hypothetical explanation of observations. In order to achieve an engineering advantage in computational decision support and SA we leverage recent research in human consciousness, the role consciousness plays in decision making, modeling the units of subjective experience which generate consciousness, qualia. This paper introduces a novel computational implementation of a Cognitive Modeling Architecture (CMA) which incorporates concepts of consciousness. We apply our model to the malware type-classification task. The underlying methodology and theories are generalizable to many domains.

Modeling employer self-insurance decisions after the Affordable Care Act.

PubMed

Cordova, Amado; Eibner, Christine; Vardavas, Raffaele; Broyles, James; Girosi, Federico

2013-04-01

To present a microsimulation model that addresses the methodological challenge of estimating the firm decision to self-insure. The model considers the risk that the firm bears when self-insuring and the opportunity to mitigate that risk by purchasing stop-loss insurance. The model makes use of a structural, utility maximization framework to account for numerous aspects of the firm decision, and a multinomial probit to reproduce the elasticity of the firm's demand for health insurance. Our simulations provide three important conclusions. First, they project significant increases in self-insurance rates among small firms--presumably induced by the desire to avoid ACA's rate-banding and risk adjustment regulations-only if generous stop-loss policies become widely available. Second, they show that this increase would be due to this hypothetical adoption of widespread, generous reinsurance by the market and not by passage of the ACA. Third, even with a substantial increase of self-insurance rates among small firms, they project negligible adverse selection in the exchanges, as indicated by our finding that the increase in exchange premium is less than 0.5% when assuming very generous stop-loss policies after implementation of the ACA. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

Modeling Employer Self-Insurance Decisions after the Affordable Care Act

PubMed Central

Cordova, Amado; Eibner, Christine; Vardavas, Raffaele; Broyles, James; Girosi, Federico

2013-01-01

Objective To present a microsimulation model that addresses the methodological challenge of estimating the firm decision to self-insure. Methodology The model considers the risk that the firm bears when self-insuring and the opportunity to mitigate that risk by purchasing stop-loss insurance. The model makes use of a structural, utility maximization framework to account for numerous aspects of the firm decision, and a multinomial probit to reproduce the elasticity of the firm's demand for health insurance. Findings and Conclusions Our simulations provide three important conclusions. First, they project significant increases in self-insurance rates among small firms--presumably induced by the desire to avoid ACA's rate-banding and risk adjustment regulations—only if generous stop-loss policies become widely available. Second, they show that this increase would be due to this hypothetical adoption of widespread, generous reinsurance by the market and not by passage of the ACA. Third, even with a substantial increase of self-insurance rates among small firms, they project negligible adverse selection in the exchanges, as indicated by our finding that the increase in exchange premium is less than 0.5% when assuming very generous stop-loss policies after implementation of the ACA. PMID:23346976

Improved representation of investment decisions in assessments of CO2 mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iyer, Gokul C.; Clarke, Leon E.; Edmonds, James A.; Flannery, Brian P.; Hultman, Nathan E.; McJeon, Haewon C.; Victor, David G.

2015-05-01

Assessments of emissions mitigation patterns have largely ignored the huge variation in real-world factors--in particular, institutions--that affect where, how and at what costs firms deploy capital. We investigate one such factor--how national institutions affect investment risks and thus the cost of financing. We use an integrated assessment model (IAM; ref. ) to represent the variation in investment risks across technologies and regions in the electricity generation sector--a pivotally important sector in most assessments of climate change mitigation--and compute the impact on the magnitude and distribution of mitigation costs. This modified representation of investment risks has two major effects. First, achieving an emissions mitigation goal is more expensive than it would be in a world with uniform investment risks. Second, industrialized countries mitigate more, and developing countries mitigate less. Here, we introduce a new front in the research on how real-world factors influence climate mitigation. We also suggest that institutional reforms aimed at lowering investment risks could be an important element of cost-effective climate mitigation strategies.

Decision-making in nursing practice: An integrative literature review.

PubMed

Nibbelink, Christine W; Brewer, Barbara B

2018-03-01

To identify and summarise factors and processes related to registered nurses' patient care decision-making in medical-surgical environments. A secondary goal of this literature review was to determine whether medical-surgical decision-making literature included factors that appeared to be similar to concepts and factors in naturalistic decision making (NDM). Decision-making in acute care nursing requires an evaluation of many complex factors. While decision-making research in acute care nursing is prevalent, errors in decision-making continue to lead to poor patient outcomes. Naturalistic decision making may provide a framework for further exploring decision-making in acute care nursing practice. A better understanding of the literature is needed to guide future research to more effectively support acute care nurse decision-making. PubMed and CINAHL databases were searched, and research meeting criteria was included. Data were identified from all included articles, and themes were developed based on these data. Key findings in this review include nursing experience and associated factors; organisation and unit culture influences on decision-making; education; understanding patient status; situation awareness; and autonomy. Acute care nurses employ a variety of decision-making factors and processes and informally identify experienced nurses to be important resources for decision-making. Incorporation of evidence into acute care nursing practice continues to be a struggle for acute care nurses. This review indicates that naturalistic decision making may be applicable to decision-making nursing research. Experienced nurses bring a broad range of previous patient encounters to their practice influencing their intuitive, unconscious processes which facilitates decision-making. Using naturalistic decision making as a conceptual framework to guide research may help with understanding how to better support less experienced nurses' decision-making for enhanced patient outcomes. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Shared Decision-Making in the Management of Congenital Vascular Malformations.

PubMed

Horbach, Sophie E R; Ubbink, Dirk T; Stubenrouch, Fabienne E; Koelemay, Mark J W; van der Vleuten, Carine J M; Verhoeven, Bas H; Reekers, Jim A; Schultze Kool, Leo J; van der Horst, Chantal M A M

2017-03-01

In shared decision-making, clinicians and patients arrive at a joint treatment decision, by incorporating best available evidence and the patients' personal values and preferences. Little is known about the role of shared decision-making in managing patients with congenital vascular malformations, for which preference-sensitive decision-making seems obvious. The authors investigated preferences regarding decision-making and current shared decision-making behavior during physician-patient encounters. In two Dutch university hospitals, adults and children with congenital vascular malformations facing a treatment-related decision were enrolled. Before the consultation, patients (or parents of children) expressed their preference regarding decision-making (Control Preferences Scale). Afterward, participants completed shared decision-making-specific questionnaires (nine-item Shared Decision-Making Questionnaire, CollaboRATE, and satisfaction), and physicians completed the Shared Decision-Making Questionnaire-Physician questionnaire. Consultations were audiotaped and patient involvement was scored by two independent researchers using the five-item Observing Patient Involvement instrument. All questionnaire results were expressed on a scale of 0 to 100 (optimum shared decision-making). Fifty-five participants (24 parents and 31 adult patients) were included. Two-thirds preferred the shared decision-making approach (Control Preferences Scale). Objective five-item Observing Patient Involvement scores were low (mean ± SD, 31 ± 15), whereas patient and physician Shared Decision-Making Questionnaire scores were high, with means of 68 ± 18 and 68 ± 19, respectively. The median CollaboRATE score was 93. There was no clear relationship between shared decision-making and satisfaction scores. Although adults and parents of children with vascular malformations express a strong desire for shared decision-making, objective shared decision-making behavior is still lacking, most likely because of poor awareness of the shared decision-making concept among patients, parents, and physicians. To improve shared decision-making practice, targeted interventions (e.g., decision aids, staff training) are essential.

Decision Making on the Labor and Delivery Unit: An Investigation of Influencing Factors.

PubMed

Gregory, Megan E; Sonesh, Shirley C; Feitosa, Jennifer; Benishek, Lauren E; Hughes, Ashley M; Salas, Eduardo

2017-09-01

Objective The aim of this study was to describe the relationship between negative affect (NA), decision-making style, time stress, and decision quality in health care. Background Health care providers must often make swift, high-stakes decisions. Influencing factors of the decision-making process in this context have been understudied. Method Within a sample of labor and delivery nurses, physicians, and allied personnel, we used self-report measures to examine the impact of trait factors, including NA, decision-making style, and perceived time stress, on decision quality in a situational judgment test (Study 1). In Study 2, we observed the influence of state NA, state decision-making style, state time stress, and their relationship with decision quality on real clinical decisions. Results In Study 1, we found that trait NA significantly predicted avoidant decision-making style. Furthermore, those who were higher on trait time stress and trait avoidant decision-making style exhibited poorer decisions. In Study 2, we observed associations between state NA with state avoidant and analytical decision-making styles. We also observed that these decision-making styles, when considered in tandem with time stress, were influential in predicting clinical decision quality. Conclusion NA predicts some decision-making styles, and decision-making style can affect decision quality under time stress. This is particularly true for state factors. Application Individual differences, such as affect and decision-making style, should be considered during selection. Training to reduce time stress perceptions should be provided.

Barriers to and facilitators of implementing shared decision making and decision support in a paediatric hospital: A descriptive study.

PubMed

Boland, Laura; McIsaac, Daniel I; Lawson, Margaret L

2016-04-01

To explore multiple stakeholders' perceived barriers to and facilitators of implementing shared decision making and decision support in a tertiary paediatric hospital. An interpretive descriptive qualitative study was conducted using focus groups and interviews to examine senior hospital administrators', clinicians', parents' and youths' perceived barriers to and facilitators of shared decision making and decision support implementation. Data were analyzed using inductive thematic analysis. Fifty-seven stakeholders participated. Six barrier and facilitator themes emerged. The main barrier was gaps in stakeholders' knowledge of shared decision making and decision support. Facilitators included compatibility between shared decision making and the hospital's culture and ideal practices, perceptions of positive patient and family outcomes associated with shared decision making, and positive attitudes regarding shared decision making and decision support. However, youth attitudes regarding the necessity and usefulness of a decision support program were a barrier. Two themes were both a barrier and a facilitator. First, stakeholder groups were uncertain which clinical situations are suitable for shared decision making (eg, new diagnoses, chronic illnesses, complex decisions or urgent decisions). Second, the clinical process may be hindered if shared decision making and decision support decrease efficiency and workflow; however, shared decision making may reduce repeat visits and save time over the long term. Specific knowledge translation strategies that improve shared decision making knowledge and match specific barriers identified by each stakeholder group may be required to promote successful shared decision making and decision support implementation in the authors' paediatric hospital.

A predictive model of nuclear power plant crew decision-making and performance in a dynamic simulation environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coyne, Kevin Anthony

The safe operation of complex systems such as nuclear power plants requires close coordination between the human operators and plant systems. In order to maintain an adequate level of safety following an accident or other off-normal event, the operators often are called upon to perform complex tasks during dynamic situations with incomplete information. The safety of such complex systems can be greatly improved if the conditions that could lead operators to make poor decisions and commit erroneous actions during these situations can be predicted and mitigated. The primary goal of this research project was the development and validation of a cognitive model capable of simulating nuclear plant operator decision-making during accident conditions. Dynamic probabilistic risk assessment methods can improve the prediction of human error events by providing rich contextual information and an explicit consideration of feedback arising from man-machine interactions. The Accident Dynamics Simulator paired with the Information, Decision, and Action in a Crew context cognitive model (ADS-IDAC) shows promise for predicting situational contexts that might lead to human error events, particularly knowledge driven errors of commission. ADS-IDAC generates a discrete dynamic event tree (DDET) by applying simple branching rules that reflect variations in crew responses to plant events and system status changes. Branches can be generated to simulate slow or fast procedure execution speed, skipping of procedure steps, reliance on memorized information, activation of mental beliefs, variations in control inputs, and equipment failures. Complex operator mental models of plant behavior that guide crew actions can be represented within the ADS-IDAC mental belief framework and used to identify situational contexts that may lead to human error events. This research increased the capabilities of ADS-IDAC in several key areas. The ADS-IDAC computer code was improved to support additional branching events and provide a better representation of the IDAC cognitive model. An operator decision-making engine capable of responding to dynamic changes in situational context was implemented. The IDAC human performance model was fully integrated with a detailed nuclear plant model in order to realistically simulate plant accident scenarios. Finally, the improved ADS-IDAC model was calibrated, validated, and updated using actual nuclear plant crew performance data. This research led to the following general conclusions: (1) A relatively small number of branching rules are capable of efficiently capturing a wide spectrum of crew-to-crew variabilities. (2) Compared to traditional static risk assessment methods, ADS-IDAC can provide a more realistic and integrated assessment of human error events by directly determining the effect of operator behaviors on plant thermal hydraulic parameters. (3) The ADS-IDAC approach provides an efficient framework for capturing actual operator performance data such as timing of operator actions, mental models, and decision-making activities.

Land subsidence susceptibility and hazard mapping: the case of Amyntaio Basin, Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tzampoglou, P.; Loupasakis, C.

2017-09-01

Landslide susceptibility and hazard mapping has been applying for more than 20 years succeeding the assessment of the landslide risk and the mitigation the phenomena. On the contrary, equivalent maps aiming to study and mitigate land subsidence phenomena caused by the overexploitation of the aquifers are absent from the international literature. The current study focuses at the Amyntaio basin, located in West Macedonia at Florina prefecture. As proved by numerous studies the wider area has been severely affected by the overexploitation of the aquifers, caused by the mining and the agricultural activities. The intensive ground water level drop has triggered extensive land subsidence phenomena, especially at the perimeter of the open pit coal mine operating at the site, causing damages to settlements and infrastructure. The land subsidence susceptibility and risk maps were produced by applying the semi-quantitative WLC (Weighted Linear Combination) method, especially calibrated for this particular catastrophic event. The results were evaluated by using detailed field mapping data referring to the spatial distribution of the surface ruptures caused by the subsidence. The high correlation between the produced maps and the field mapping data, have proved the great value of the maps and of the applied technique on the management and the mitigation of the phenomena. Obviously, these maps can be safely used by decision-making authorities for the future urban safety development.

Intersection decision support : evaluation of a violation warning system to mitigate straight crossing path collisions.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2006-01-01

This project entailed the design, development, testing, and evaluation of intersection decision support (IDS) systems to address straight crossing path (SCP) intersection crashes. This type of intersection crash is responsible for more than 100,000 c...

Decision-making on shared sanitation in the informal settlements of Kisumu, Kenya.

PubMed

Simiyu, Sheillah; Swilling, Mark; Cairncross, Sandy

2017-10-01

Unlike most quantitative studies that investigate decision-making on investing in sanitation, this study adopted a qualitative approach to investigate decision-making on shared sanitation in the informal settlements of Kisumu city, in Kenya. Using a grounded theory approach, landlords and tenants were interviewed to identify sanitation decisions, individuals involved in decision-making and factors influencing decision-making. The results indicate that the main sanitation decisions are on investment, emptying, repair and cleaning. Landlords make investment, emptying and repair decisions, while tenants make cleaning decisions. Absentee landlords are less involved in most decision-making compared to live-in landlords, who rarely consult tenants in decision-making. Tenants make decisions after consultations with a third party and often collectively with other tenants. Sanitation interventions in informal settlements should thus, target landlords and tenants, with investment efforts being directed at landlords and maintenance efforts at tenants.

Climate change adaptation & mitigation strategies for Water-Energy-Land Nexus management in Mediterranean region: Case study of Catalunya (Spain).

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Vikas; Schuhmacher, Marta

2016-04-01

Water-Energy-Land (WEL) Nexus management is one of those complex decision problems where holistic approach to supply-demand management considering different criteria would be valuable. However, multi-criteria decision making with diverse indicators measured on different scales and uncertainty levels is difficult to solve. On the other hand, climate adaptation and mitigation need to be integrated, and resource sensitive regions like Mediterranean provide ample opportunities towards that end. While the water sector plays a key role in climate adaptation, mitigation focuses on the energy and agriculture sector. Recent studies on the so-called WEL nexus confirm the potential synergies to be derived from mainstreaming climate adaptation in the water sector, while simultaneously addressing opportunities for co-management with energy (and also land use). Objective of this paper is to develop scenarios for the future imbalances in water & energy supply and demand for a water stressed Mediterranean area of Northern Spain (Catalonia) and to test the scenario based climate adaptation & mitigation strategy for WEL management policies. Resource sensitive area of Catalonia presents an interesting nexus problem to study highly stressed water demand scenario (representing all major demand sectors), very heterogeneous land use including intensive agriculture to diversified urban and industrial uses, and mixed energy supply including hydro, wind, gas turbine to nuclear energy. Different energy sectors have different water and land requirements. Inter-river basin water transfer is another factor which is considered for this area. The water-energy link is multifaceted. Energy production can affect water quality, while energy is used in water treatment and to reduce pollution. Similarly, hydropower - producing energy from water - and desalination - producing freshwater using energy - both play important role in economic growth by supplying large and secure amounts of 'green' energy or water where it is a scarce resource. Linkage of water & Energy to the land has been established through irrigated agriculture which has seen an increasing trend in the case study area. A detail scenario planning for regional water-energy demand and supply in conjunction with different climate change and economic growth scenarios are considered. For each future scenario of climate change, the goal is to obtain a ranking of a set of possible actions with regards to different types of indicators (costs, environmental etc.). The analytical method used is based on outranking models for decision aid with hierarchical structures of criteria and ranking alternatives using partial preorders based on pairwise preference relations. The proposed method has several advantages such as the management of heterogeneous scales of measurement without requiring any artificial transformation and the management of uncertainty by means of comparisons at a qualitative level in terms of the decision maker preferences. Result shows that such an integrated ("nexus") approach is likely to build resilience and reduces vulnerability to the combination of pressures acting upon the Mediterranean region's water systems, including climate-related shocks.

Applying the Land Use Portfolio Model with Hazus to analyse risk from natural hazard events

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dinitz, Laura B.; Taketa, Richard A.

2013-01-01

This paper describes and demonstrates the integration of two geospatial decision-support systems for natural-hazard risk assessment and management. Hazus is a risk-assessment tool developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency to identify risks and estimate the severity of risk from natural hazards. The Land Use Portfolio Model (LUPM) is a risk-management tool developed by the U.S. Geological Survey to evaluate plans or actions intended to reduce risk from natural hazards. We analysed three mitigation policies for one earthquake scenario in the San Francisco Bay area to demonstrate the added value of using Hazus and the LUPM together. The demonstration showed that Hazus loss estimates can be input to the LUPM to obtain estimates of losses avoided through mitigation, rates of return on mitigation investment, and measures of uncertainty. Together, they offer a more comprehensive approach to help with decisions for reducing risk from natural hazards.

Managements for mitigating fescue toxicosis

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Fescue toxicosis is an ongoing problem for cattlemen and other livestock producers in regions where tall fescue is prevalent. Logically, there are two ways to alleviate or mitigate the toxicosis; either make the forage less toxic or make the animals less sensitive. Think of it in terms of four bas...

Using the Situated Clinical Decision-Making framework to guide analysis of nurses' clinical decision-making.

PubMed

Gillespie, Mary

2010-11-01

Nurses' clinical decision-making is a complex process that holds potential to influence the quality of care provided and patient outcomes. The evolution of nurses' decision-making that occurs with experience has been well documented. In addition, literature includes numerous strategies and approaches purported to support development of nurses' clinical decision-making. There has been, however, significantly less attention given to the process of assessing nurses' clinical decision-making and novice clinical educators are often challenged with knowing how to best support nurses and nursing students in developing their clinical decision-making capacity. The Situated Clinical Decision-Making framework is presented for use by clinical educators: it provides a structured approach to analyzing nursing students' and novice nurses' decision-making in clinical nursing practice, assists educators in identifying specific issues within nurses' clinical decision-making, and guides selection of relevant strategies to support development of clinical decision-making. A series of questions is offered as a guide for clinical educators when assessing nurses' clinical decision-making. The discussion presents key considerations related to analysis of various decision-making components, including common sources of challenge and errors that may occur within nurses' clinical decision-making. An exemplar illustrates use of the framework and guiding questions. Implications of this approach for selection of strategies that support development of clinical decision-making are highlighted. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Integrating Physical Actions and Financial Instruments to Manage Environmental Financial Risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foster, B.

2016-12-01

Exposure to extreme weather events can be reduced through physical actions (e.g., dams/reservoirs) or mitigated financially (e.g., insurance). Often physical actions involve investments in expensive infrastructure that reduce exposure, but whose benefits are only occasionally realized. Financial risk management does not reduce the impacts of an event, but rather redistributes them temporally, albeit at a cost. Nonetheless, these costs are typically much smaller, at least in the short run, than those incurred for physical actions. Financial strategies are also more flexible than physical ones in the face of an uncertain future. Financial contracts specifically designed to manage extreme environmental risks are becoming more common and can either replace or complement infrastructural investments as part of a risk management portfolio. In order to make optimal decisions as to the relative levels of physical and financial risk mitigation to employ, it is necessary to understand the relative merits of each strategy. This research develops a method for analyzing tradeoffs between physical and financial risk management strategies. We identify the unique cost and benefit properties of each strategy and integrate them into a single model that details the tradeoffs involved in various portfolios of physical and financial strategies. These methods are then applied to evaluate decisions to pursue emergency dredging during drought on the Mississippi River, which is used to mitigate the increased costs and/or reduced revenues barge operators face when water levels are low. Currently the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers funds most emergency dredging operations during major droughts and they are considering more intensive strategies for future droughts. Barge carriers and shippers though could manage at least some portion of their financial risks through a series of existing and experimental financial contracts. This work involves the formulation of these experimental contracts and the development of methods to evaluate integrated portfolios of physical and financial risk management strategies.

ERMiT: Estimating Post-Fire Erosion in Probabilistic Terms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pierson, F. B.; Robichaud, P. R.; Elliot, W. J.; Hall, D. E.; Moffet, C. A.

2006-12-01

Mitigating the impact of post-wildfire runoff and erosion on life, property, and natural resources have cost the United States government tens of millions of dollars over the past decade. The decision of where, when, and how to apply the most effective mitigation treatments requires land managers to assess the risk of damaging runoff and erosion events occurring after a fire. The Erosion Risk Management Tool (ERMiT) is a web-based application that estimates erosion in probabilistic terms on burned and recovering forest, range, and chaparral lands. Unlike most erosion prediction models, ERMiT does not provide `average annual erosion rates;' rather, it provides a distribution of erosion rates with the likelihood of their occurrence. ERMiT combines rain event variability with spatial and temporal variabilities of hillslope burn severity, soil properties, and ground cover to estimate Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model input parameter values. Based on 20 to 40 individual WEPP runs, ERMiT produces a distribution of rain event erosion rates with a probability of occurrence for each of five post-fire years. Over the 5 years of modeled recovery, the occurrence probability of the less erodible soil parameters is increased and the occurrence probability of the more erodible soil parameters is decreased. In addition, the occurrence probabilities and the four spatial arrangements of burn severity (arrangements of overland flow elements (OFE's)), are shifted toward lower burn severity with each year of recovery. These yearly adjustments are based on field measurements made through post-fire recovery periods. ERMiT also provides rain event erosion rate distributions for hillslopes that have been treated with seeding, straw mulch, straw wattles and contour-felled log erosion barriers. Such output can help managers make erosion mitigation treatment decisions based on the probability of high sediment yields occurring, the value of resources at risk for damage, cost, and other management considerations.

[Decision Making and Electrodermal Activity].

PubMed

Kobayakawa, Mutsutaka

2016-08-01

Decision making is aided by emotions. Bodily responses, such as sweating, heartbeat, and visceral sensation, are used to monitor the emotional state during decision making. Because decision making in dairy life is complicated and cognitively demanding, these bodily signals are thought to facilitate the decision making process by assigning positive or negative values for each of the behavioral options. The sweat response in a decision making task is measured by skin conductance response (SCR). SCR in decision making is divided into two categories: anticipatory SCR is observed before making decisions, and reward/punishment SCR is observed after the outcome of the decision is perceived. Brain lesion studies in human revealed that the amygdala and ventromedial prefrontal cortex are important in decision making. Patients with lesinon in the amygdala exhibit neither the anticipatory nor reward/punishment SCRs, while patients with the ventromedial prefrontal lesions have deficits only in the anticipatory SCRs. Decision making tasks and SCR analysis have contributed to reveal the implicit aspects of decision making. Further research is necessary for clarifying the role of explicit process of decision making and its relationship with the implicit process.

Household preferences for reducing greenhouse gas emissions in four European high-income countries: Does health information matter? A mixed-methods study protocol.

PubMed

Herrmann, Alina; Fischer, Helen; Amelung, Dorothee; Litvine, Dorian; Aall, Carlo; Andersson, Camilla; Baltruszewicz, Marta; Barbier, Carine; Bruyère, Sébastien; Bénévise, Françoise; Dubois, Ghislain; Louis, Valérie R; Nilsson, Maria; Richardsen Moberg, Karen; Sköld, Bore; Sauerborn, Rainer

2017-08-01

It is now universally acknowledged that climate change constitutes a major threat to human health. At the same time, some of the measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, so-called climate change mitigation measures, have significant health co-benefits (e.g., walking or cycling more; eating less meat). The goal of limiting global warming to 1,5° Celsius set by the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in Paris in 2015 can only be reached if all stakeholders, including households, take actions to mitigate climate change. Results on whether framing mitigation measures in terms of their health co-benefits increases the likelihood of their implementation are inconsistent. The present study protocol describes the transdisciplinary project HOPE (HOuseholds' Preferences for reducing greenhouse gas emissions in four European high-income countries) that investigates the role of health co-benefits in households' decision making on climate change mitigation measures in urban households in France, Germany, Norway and Sweden. HOPE employs a mixed-methods approach combining status-quo carbon footprint assessments, simulations of the reduction of households' carbon footprints, and qualitative in-depth interviews with a subgroup of households. Furthermore, a policy analysis of current household oriented climate policies is conducted. In the simulation of the reduction of households' carbon footprints, half of the households are provided with information on health co-benefits of climate change mitigation measures, the other half is not. Households' willingness to implement the measures is assessed and compared in between-group analyses of variance. This is one of the first comprehensive mixed-methods approaches to investigate which mitigation measures households are most willing to implement in order to reach the 1,5° target set by the Paris Agreement, and whether health co-benefits can serve as a motivator for households to implement these measures. The comparison of the empirical data with current climate policies will provide knowledge for tailoring effective climate change mitigation and health policies.

PLUS: 'Planning Land Use with Students' is a Local Land Use Policy That Showcase the Geosciences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turrin, M.

2014-12-01

Land Use decisions in the local community are well represented in geoscience topics and issues, and provide an excellent opportunity to showcase a wide range of geoscience careers to high school students. In PLUS (Planning Land Use with Students) we work with youth corps, volunteer agencies and the County Departments of Planning, Transportation, Public Health, Water Resources to run a program for high school seniors to engage the students in the complex layers of decision making connected with land use as we showcase geoscience careers (http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/edu/plus/index.html). How development occurs, what resources are in use and who makes these decisions is both interesting and relevant for students. We develop case studies around current, active, local land use issues large enough in scale to have a formal environmental review at the County and/or the State level. Sections of each case study are dedicated to addressing the range of environmental issues that are central to each land use decision. Water, its availability, planned use and treatment on the site, brings in both a review of local hydrology and a discussion of storm water management. Air quality and the impact of the proposed project's density, transportation plans, and commercial and industrial uses brings in air quality issues like air quality ratings, existing pollution, and local air monitoring. A review of the site plans brings in grading plans for the project area, which highlights issues of drainage, soil stability, and exposure to toxins or pollutants depending on the historic use of the site. Brownfield redevelopments are especially challenging with various monitoring, clean up and usage restrictions that are extremely interesting to the students. Students' work with mentors from the community who represent various roles in the planning process including a range of geosciences, community business members and other players in the planning process. This interplay of individuals provides a realistic look at the forces that move land use decision-making in a community. Discussion of impacts and mitigations highlight the intersection of policy and science. Debate arises on how much science should guide policy and how much land use policy decisions require science monitoring, pushing new scientific developments.

The Role of Federal Government for Climate Adaptation in the Urban Context: Results of a workshop (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buizer, J.; Chhetri, N.; Roy, M.

2010-12-01

Extreme weather events in urban areas such as torrential rainfall in Chicago and London, floods in Boston and Elbe and heat waves in Europe have shed stark light on cities’ vulnerability to the effects of climate change. At the same time, cities themselves are significant net contributors to GHG’s attributable to climatic changes through the built environment (e.g. housing, roads, and parking lots), transport, consumption and recreation. In the arid region of southwestern United States, issues associated with the adequacy of water resources, urban heat island, and air quality best exemplify these contributions. This duality - cities as impacted by, and contributors to extreme climatic patterns induced by climate change, and the specific climate information needed for decision-making by city planners - provided the impetus for a two-day workshop in January 2009. Organized by Arizona State University, the workshop included city managers, planners, private sector stakeholders, water managers, researchers, and Federal program managers. The aim was to identify information needs, and data and research gaps, as well as to design strategies to address climate uncertainty. Two key approaches discussed were: a) building multiple, flexible scenarios and modeling efforts that enable decision-makers to plan for a number of possible futures, and b) matching Federal climate assets to local, regional and sectoral needs through continuous collaboration that supports decision-making within the social, economic, and political context of the place. Federal leadership in facilitating, coordinating and informing efforts that nurture the creative intellectual capacity of cities to produce integrated solutions to mitigate the effects of and adapt to climate change will go a long way in addressing urban climate adaptation in the United States. Participants outlined a number of concerns and suggestions for Federal government leaders and services associated with a national climate network. Concerns included a broad range of issues, including flood protection, sea level rise, extreme events, infrastructure investment decisions, water supply, storm-water and wastewater management, public education and outreach. Suggestions included an in-depth exploration of new roles for federal agencies, as well as new partnerships with state and local entities, the private sector, and non-governmental entities; developing specialized communicators and trusted information brokers who can connect federal science agencies to local decision makers; and integrating federal decision making with local implementation.

Upstream solutions to coral reef conservation: The payoffs of smart and cooperative decision-making.

PubMed

Oleson, Kirsten L L; Falinski, Kim A; Lecky, Joey; Rowe, Clara; Kappel, Carrie V; Selkoe, Kimberly A; White, Crow

2017-04-15

Land-based source pollutants (LBSP) actively threaten coral reef ecosystems globally. To achieve the greatest conservation outcome at the lowest cost, managers could benefit from appropriate tools that evaluate the benefits (in terms of LBSP reduction) and costs of implementing alternative land management strategies. Here we use a spatially explicit predictive model (InVEST-SDR) that quantifies change in sediment reaching the coast for evaluating the costs and benefits of alternative threat-abatement scenarios. We specifically use the model to examine trade-offs among possible agricultural road repair management actions (water bars to divert runoff and gravel to protect the road surface) across the landscape in West Maui, Hawaii, USA. We investigated changes in sediment delivery to coasts and costs incurred from management decision-making that is (1) cooperative or independent among landowners, and focused on (2) minimizing costs, reducing sediment, or both. The results illuminate which management scenarios most effectively minimize sediment while also minimizing the cost of mitigation efforts. We find targeting specific "hotspots" within all individual parcels is more cost-effective than targeting all road segments. The best outcomes are achieved when landowners cooperate and target cost-effective road repairs, however, a cooperative strategy can be counter-productive in some instances when cost-effectiveness is ignored. Simple models, such as the one developed here, have the potential to help managers make better choices about how to use limited resources. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Informing Decisions with a Climate Synthesis Product: Implications for Regional Climate Services

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guido, Z.; Hill, D.; Crimmins, M.; Ferguson, D. B.

2012-12-01

The demand for regional climate information is increasing and spurring efforts to provide a broad slate of climate services that inform policy and resource management and elevate general knowledge. Routine syntheses of existing climate-related information may be an effective strategy for connecting climate information to decision making, but few studies have formally assessed their contribution to informing decisions. During the 2010-2011 winter, drought conditions expanded and intensified in Arizona and New Mexico, creating an opportunity to develop and evaluate a pithy, monthly regional climate communication product—La Niña Drought Tracker—that synthesized and interpreted drought and climate information. Six issues were published and subsequently evaluated through an online survey. On average, 417 people consulted the publication each month. Many of the survey respondents indicated that they made at least one drought-related decision, and the product at least moderately influenced the majority of those decisions, some of which helped mitigate economic losses and reduce climate vulnerability. The product also improved understanding of climate and drought for more than 90 percent of the respondents and helped the majority of them better prepare for drought. These, and other results demonstrate that routine interpretation and synthesis of existing climate information can help enhance access to and understanding and use of climate information in decision-making. Moreover, developing regional, contextual knowledge within climate service programs can facilitate the implementation of activities like the Tracker that enhance the use of climate information without engaging in time-consuming collaborative processes that can prevent the timely production of the services. We present results from the case study of the Tracker and place it within the context of the challenges and opportunities associated with providing climate services, particularly those services that require several-to-many months of work but often do not generate substantial financial sponsorship. These medium-term climate services, like the Tracker, present formidable challenges. However, we argue, they are vital to satisfying stakeholder demand, creating new and strengthening existing partnerships, aiding decisions, advancing climate literacy, and fostering future projects—main goals of climate services.

Risk analysis procedure for post-wildfire natural hazards in British Columbia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jordan, Peter

2010-05-01

Following a severe wildfire season in 2003, and several subsequent damaging debris flow and flood events, the British Columbia Forest Service developed a procedure for analysing risks to public safety and infrastructure from such events. At the same time, the Forest Service undertook a research program to determine the extent of post-wildfire hazards, and examine the hydrologic and geomorphic processes contributing to the hazards. The risk analysis procedure follows the Canadian Standards Association decision-making framework for risk management (which in turn is based on international standards). This has several steps: identification of risk, risk analysis and estimation, evaluation of risk tolerability, developing control or mitigation strategies, and acting on these strategies. The Forest Service procedure deals only with the first two steps. The results are passed on to authorities such as the Provincial Emergency Program and local government, who are responsible for evaluating risks, warning residents, and applying mitigation strategies if appropriate. The objective of the procedure is to identify and analyse risks to public safety and infrastructure. The procedure is loosely based on the BAER (burned area emergency response) program in the USA, with some important differences. Our procedure focuses on identifying risks and warning affected parties, not on mitigation activities such as broadcast erosion control measures. Partly this is due to limited staff and financial resources. Also, our procedure is not multi-agency, but is limited to wildfires on provincial forest land; in British Columbia about 95% of forest land is in the publicly-owned provincial forest. Each fire season, wildfires are screened by size and proximity to values at risk such as populated areas. For selected fires, when the fire is largely contained, the procedure begins with an aerial reconnaissance of the fire, and photography with a hand-held camera, which can be used to make a preliminary map of vegetation burn severity if desired. The next steps include mapping catchment boundaries, field traverses to collect data on soil burn severity and water repellency, identification of unstable hillslopes and channels, and inspection of values at risk from hazards such as debris flows or flooding. BARC (burned area reflectance classification) maps based on satellite imagery are prepared for some fires, although these are typically not available for several weeks. Our objective is to make a preliminary risk analysis report available about two weeks after the fire is contained. If high risks to public safety or infrastructure are identified, the risk analysis reports may make recommendations for mitigation measures to be considered; however, acting on these recommendations is the responsibility of local land managers, local government, or landowners. Mitigation measures for some fires have included engineering treatments to reduce the hydrologic impact of logging roads, protective structures such as dykes or berms, and straw mulching to reduce runoff and erosion on severely burned areas. The Terrace Mountain Fire, with burned 9000 hectares in the Okanagan Valley in 2009, is used as an example of the application of the procedure.

Towards reliable mapping of biosecurity risk: incorporating uncertainty and decision-makers’ risk aversion

Treesearch

Denys Yemshanov; Frank H. Koch; Mark Ducey; Robert A. Haack

2015-01-01

Pest risk maps are an important source of decision support when devising strategies to minimize introductions of invasive organisms and mitigate their impacts. When possible management responses to an invader include costly or socially sensitive activities, decision makers tend to follow a more certain (i.e. risk-averse) course of action. We present a new mapping...

Quantifying uncertainty in pest risk maps and assessments: adopting a risk-averse decision maker’s perspective

Treesearch

Denys Yemshanov; Frank H. Koch; Mark J. Ducey; Robert A. Haack; Marty Siltanen; Kirsty Wilson

2013-01-01

Pest risk maps are important decision support tools when devising strategies to minimize introductions of invasive organisms and mitigate their impacts. When possible management responses to an invader include costly or socially sensitive activities, decision-makers tend to follow a more certain (i.e., risk-averse) course of action. We presented a new mapping technique...

What is a “good” treatment decision?: Decisional control, knowledge, treatment decision-making, and quality of life in men with clinically localized prostate cancer

PubMed Central

Orom, Heather; Biddle, Caitlin; Underwood, Willie; Nelson, Christian J.; Homish, D. Lynn

2016-01-01

Objective We explored whether active patient involvement in decision making and greater patient knowledge are associated with better treatment decision making experiences and better quality of life (QOL) among men with clinically localized prostate cancer. Localized prostate cancer treatment decision-making is an advantageous model for studying patient treatment decision-making dynamics as there are multiple treatment options and a lack of empirical evidence to recommend one over the other; consequently, it is recommended that patients be fully involved in making the decision. Methods Men with newly diagnosed clinically localized prostate cancer (N=1529) completed measures of decisional control, prostate cancer knowledge, and their decision-making experience (decisional conflict, and decision-making satisfaction and difficulty) shortly after they made their treatment decision. Prostate cancer-specific QOL was assessed 6-months after treatment. Results More active involvement in decision making and greater knowledge were associated with lower decisional conflict and higher decision-making satisfaction, but greater decision-making difficulty. An interaction between decisional control and knowledge revealed that greater knowledge was only associated with greater difficulty for men actively involved in making the decision (67% of sample). Greater knowledge, but not decisional control predicted better QOL 6-months post-treatment. Conclusion Although men who are actively involved in decision making and more knowledgeable may make more informed decisions, they could benefit from decisional support (e.g., decision-making aids, emotional support from providers, strategies for reducing emotional distress) to make the process easier. Men who were more knowledgeable about prostate cancer and treatment side effects at the time they made their treatment decision may have appraised their QOL as higher because they had realistic expectations about side effects. PMID:26957566

What Is a "Good" Treatment Decision? Decisional Control, Knowledge, Treatment Decision Making, and Quality of Life in Men with Clinically Localized Prostate Cancer.

PubMed

Orom, Heather; Biddle, Caitlin; Underwood, Willie; Nelson, Christian J; Homish, D Lynn

2016-08-01

We explored whether active patient involvement in decision making and greater patient knowledge are associated with better treatment decision-making experiences and better quality of life (QOL) among men with clinically localized prostate cancer. Localized prostate cancer treatment decision making is an advantageous model for studying patient treatment decision-making dynamics because there are multiple treatment options and a lack of empirical evidence to recommend one over the other; consequently, it is recommended that patients be fully involved in making the decision. Men with newly diagnosed clinically localized prostate cancer (N = 1529) completed measures of decisional control, prostate cancer knowledge, and decision-making experiences (decisional conflict and decision-making satisfaction and difficulty) shortly after they made their treatment decision. Prostate cancer-specific QOL was assessed at 6 months after treatment. More active involvement in decision making and greater knowledge were associated with lower decisional conflict and higher decision-making satisfaction but greater decision-making difficulty. An interaction between decisional control and knowledge revealed that greater knowledge was only associated with greater difficulty for men actively involved in making the decision (67% of sample). Greater knowledge, but not decisional control, predicted better QOL 6 months after treatment. Although men who are actively involved in decision making and more knowledgeable may make more informed decisions, they could benefit from decisional support (e.g., decision-making aids, emotional support from providers, strategies for reducing emotional distress) to make the process easier. Men who were more knowledgeable about prostate cancer and treatment side effects at the time that they made their treatment decision may have appraised their QOL as higher because they had realistic expectations about side effects. © The Author(s) 2016.

Barriers to and facilitators of implementing shared decision making and decision support in a paediatric hospital: A descriptive study

PubMed Central

Boland, Laura; McIsaac, Daniel I; Lawson, Margaret L

2016-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To explore multiple stakeholders’ perceived barriers to and facilitators of implementing shared decision making and decision support in a tertiary paediatric hospital. METHODS: An interpretive descriptive qualitative study was conducted using focus groups and interviews to examine senior hospital administrators’, clinicians’, parents’ and youths’ perceived barriers to and facilitators of shared decision making and decision support implementation. Data were analyzed using inductive thematic analysis. RESULTS: Fifty-seven stakeholders participated. Six barrier and facilitator themes emerged. The main barrier was gaps in stakeholders’ knowledge of shared decision making and decision support. Facilitators included compatibility between shared decision making and the hospital’s culture and ideal practices, perceptions of positive patient and family outcomes associated with shared decision making, and positive attitudes regarding shared decision making and decision support. However, youth attitudes regarding the necessity and usefulness of a decision support program were a barrier. Two themes were both a barrier and a facilitator. First, stakeholder groups were uncertain which clinical situations are suitable for shared decision making (eg, new diagnoses, chronic illnesses, complex decisions or urgent decisions). Second, the clinical process may be hindered if shared decision making and decision support decrease efficiency and workflow; however, shared decision making may reduce repeat visits and save time over the long term. CONCLUSIONS: Specific knowledge translation strategies that improve shared decision making knowledge and match specific barriers identified by each stakeholder group may be required to promote successful shared decision making and decision support implementation in the authors’ paediatric hospital. PMID:27398058

Distinction between Externally vs. Internally Guided Decision-Making: Operational Differences, Meta-Analytical Comparisons and Their Theoretical Implications

PubMed Central

Nakao, Takashi; Ohira, Hideki; Northoff, Georg

2012-01-01

Most experimental studies of decision-making have specifically examined situations in which a single less-predictable correct answer exists (externally guided decision-making under uncertainty). Along with such externally guided decision-making, there are instances of decision-making in which no correct answer based on external circumstances is available for the subject (internally guided decision-making). Such decisions are usually made in the context of moral decision-making as well as in preference judgment, where the answer depends on the subject’s own, i.e., internal, preferences rather than on external, i.e., circumstantial, criteria. The neuronal and psychological mechanisms that allow guidance of decisions based on more internally oriented criteria in the absence of external ones remain unclear. This study was undertaken to compare decision-making of these two kinds empirically and theoretically. First, we reviewed studies of decision-making to clarify experimental–operational differences between externally guided and internally guided decision-making. Second, using multi-level kernel density analysis, a whole-brain-based quantitative meta-analysis of neuroimaging studies was performed. Our meta-analysis revealed that the neural network used predominantly for internally guided decision-making differs from that for externally guided decision-making under uncertainty. This result suggests that studying only externally guided decision-making under uncertainty is insufficient to account for decision-making processes in the brain. Finally, based on the review and results of the meta-analysis, we discuss the differences and relations between decision-making of these two types in terms of their operational, neuronal, and theoretical characteristics. PMID:22403525

36 CFR 223.136 - Debarment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... decision, the debarring official shall consider the seriousness of the purchaser's acts or omissions and any mitigating factors. (b) Effect of proposed debarment. (1) Upon issuance of a notice of proposed debarment by the debarring official and until the final debarment decision is rendered, the Forest Service...