Robust time and frequency domain estimation methods in adaptive control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lamaire, Richard Orville

1987-01-01

A robust identification method was developed for use in an adaptive control system. The type of estimator is called the robust estimator, since it is robust to the effects of both unmodeled dynamics and an unmeasurable disturbance. The development of the robust estimator was motivated by a need to provide guarantees in the identification part of an adaptive controller. To enable the design of a robust control system, a nominal model as well as a frequency-domain bounding function on the modeling uncertainty associated with this nominal model must be provided. Two estimation methods are presented for finding parameter estimates, and, hence, a nominal model. One of these methods is based on the well developed field of time-domain parameter estimation. In a second method of finding parameter estimates, a type of weighted least-squares fitting to a frequency-domain estimated model is used. The frequency-domain estimator is shown to perform better, in general, than the time-domain parameter estimator. In addition, a methodology for finding a frequency-domain bounding function on the disturbance is used to compute a frequency-domain bounding function on the additive modeling error due to the effects of the disturbance and the use of finite-length data. The performance of the robust estimator in both open-loop and closed-loop situations is examined through the use of simulations.

Method for six-legged robot stepping on obstacles by indirect force estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Yilin; Gao, Feng; Pan, Yang; Chai, Xun

2016-07-01

Adaptive gaits for legged robots often requires force sensors installed on foot-tips, however impact, temperature or humidity can affect or even damage those sensors. Efforts have been made to realize indirect force estimation on the legged robots using leg structures based on planar mechanisms. Robot Octopus III is a six-legged robot using spatial parallel mechanism(UP-2UPS) legs. This paper proposed a novel method to realize indirect force estimation on walking robot based on a spatial parallel mechanism. The direct kinematics model and the inverse kinematics model are established. The force Jacobian matrix is derived based on the kinematics model. Thus, the indirect force estimation model is established. Then, the relation between the output torques of the three motors installed on one leg to the external force exerted on the foot tip is described. Furthermore, an adaptive tripod static gait is designed. The robot alters its leg trajectory to step on obstacles by using the proposed adaptive gait. Both the indirect force estimation model and the adaptive gait are implemented and optimized in a real time control system. An experiment is carried out to validate the indirect force estimation model. The adaptive gait is tested in another experiment. Experiment results show that the robot can successfully step on a 0.2 m-high obstacle. This paper proposes a novel method to overcome obstacles for the six-legged robot using spatial parallel mechanism legs and to avoid installing the electric force sensors in harsh environment of the robot's foot tips.

A Hybrid Acoustic and Pronunciation Model Adaptation Approach for Non-native Speech Recognition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oh, Yoo Rhee; Kim, Hong Kook

In this paper, we propose a hybrid model adaptation approach in which pronunciation and acoustic models are adapted by incorporating the pronunciation and acoustic variabilities of non-native speech in order to improve the performance of non-native automatic speech recognition (ASR). Specifically, the proposed hybrid model adaptation can be performed at either the state-tying or triphone-modeling level, depending at which acoustic model adaptation is performed. In both methods, we first analyze the pronunciation variant rules of non-native speakers and then classify each rule as either a pronunciation variant or an acoustic variant. The state-tying level hybrid method then adapts pronunciation models and acoustic models by accommodating the pronunciation variants in the pronunciation dictionary and by clustering the states of triphone acoustic models using the acoustic variants, respectively. On the other hand, the triphone-modeling level hybrid method initially adapts pronunciation models in the same way as in the state-tying level hybrid method; however, for the acoustic model adaptation, the triphone acoustic models are then re-estimated based on the adapted pronunciation models and the states of the re-estimated triphone acoustic models are clustered using the acoustic variants. From the Korean-spoken English speech recognition experiments, it is shown that ASR systems employing the state-tying and triphone-modeling level adaptation methods can relatively reduce the average word error rates (WERs) by 17.1% and 22.1% for non-native speech, respectively, when compared to a baseline ASR system.

A Direct Adaptive Control Approach in the Presence of Model Mismatch

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Joshi, Suresh M.; Tao, Gang; Khong, Thuan

2009-01-01

This paper considers the problem of direct model reference adaptive control when the plant-model matching conditions are violated due to abnormal changes in the plant or incorrect knowledge of the plant's mathematical structure. The approach consists of direct adaptation of state feedback gains for state tracking, and simultaneous estimation of the plant-model mismatch. Because of the mismatch, the plant can no longer track the state of the original reference model, but may be able to track a new reference model that still provides satisfactory performance. The reference model is updated if the estimated plant-model mismatch exceeds a bound that is determined via robust stability and/or performance criteria. The resulting controller is a hybrid direct-indirect adaptive controller that offers asymptotic state tracking in the presence of plant-model mismatch as well as parameter deviations.

Statistical Indexes for Monitoring Item Behavior under Computer Adaptive Testing Environment.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zhu, Renbang; Yu, Feng; Liu, Su

A computerized adaptive test (CAT) administration usually requires a large supply of items with accurately estimated psychometric properties, such as item response theory (IRT) parameter estimates, to ensure the precision of examinee ability estimation. However, an estimated IRT model of a given item in any given pool does not always correctly…

Integrated direct/indirect adaptive robust motion trajectory tracking control of pneumatic cylinders

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meng, Deyuan; Tao, Guoliang; Zhu, Xiaocong

2013-09-01

This paper studies the precision motion trajectory tracking control of a pneumatic cylinder driven by a proportional-directional control valve. An integrated direct/indirect adaptive robust controller is proposed. The controller employs a physical model based indirect-type parameter estimation to obtain reliable estimates of unknown model parameters, and utilises a robust control method with dynamic compensation type fast adaptation to attenuate the effects of parameter estimation errors, unmodelled dynamics and disturbances. Due to the use of projection mapping, the robust control law and the parameter adaption algorithm can be designed separately. Since the system model uncertainties are unmatched, the recursive backstepping technology is adopted to design the robust control law. Extensive comparative experimental results are presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed controller and its performance robustness to parameter variations and sudden disturbances.

Adaptive Disturbance Tracking Theory with State Estimation and State Feedback for Region II Control of Large Wind Turbines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Balas, Mark J.; Thapa Magar, Kaman S.; Frost, Susan A.

2013-01-01

A theory called Adaptive Disturbance Tracking Control (ADTC) is introduced and used to track the Tip Speed Ratio (TSR) of 5 MW Horizontal Axis Wind Turbine (HAWT). Since ADTC theory requires wind speed information, a wind disturbance generator model is combined with lower order plant model to estimate the wind speed as well as partial states of the wind turbine. In this paper, we present a proof of stability and convergence of ADTC theory with lower order estimator and show that the state feedback can be adaptive.

Utilizing Adjoint-Based Error Estimates for Surrogate Models to Accurately Predict Probabilities of Events

DOE PAGES

Butler, Troy; Wildey, Timothy

2018-01-01

In thist study, we develop a procedure to utilize error estimates for samples of a surrogate model to compute robust upper and lower bounds on estimates of probabilities of events. We show that these error estimates can also be used in an adaptive algorithm to simultaneously reduce the computational cost and increase the accuracy in estimating probabilities of events using computationally expensive high-fidelity models. Specifically, we introduce the notion of reliability of a sample of a surrogate model, and we prove that utilizing the surrogate model for the reliable samples and the high-fidelity model for the unreliable samples gives preciselymore » the same estimate of the probability of the output event as would be obtained by evaluation of the original model for each sample. The adaptive algorithm uses the additional evaluations of the high-fidelity model for the unreliable samples to locally improve the surrogate model near the limit state, which significantly reduces the number of high-fidelity model evaluations as the limit state is resolved. Numerical results based on a recently developed adjoint-based approach for estimating the error in samples of a surrogate are provided to demonstrate (1) the robustness of the bounds on the probability of an event, and (2) that the adaptive enhancement algorithm provides a more accurate estimate of the probability of the QoI event than standard response surface approximation methods at a lower computational cost.« less

Utilizing Adjoint-Based Error Estimates for Surrogate Models to Accurately Predict Probabilities of Events

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Butler, Troy; Wildey, Timothy

In thist study, we develop a procedure to utilize error estimates for samples of a surrogate model to compute robust upper and lower bounds on estimates of probabilities of events. We show that these error estimates can also be used in an adaptive algorithm to simultaneously reduce the computational cost and increase the accuracy in estimating probabilities of events using computationally expensive high-fidelity models. Specifically, we introduce the notion of reliability of a sample of a surrogate model, and we prove that utilizing the surrogate model for the reliable samples and the high-fidelity model for the unreliable samples gives preciselymore » the same estimate of the probability of the output event as would be obtained by evaluation of the original model for each sample. The adaptive algorithm uses the additional evaluations of the high-fidelity model for the unreliable samples to locally improve the surrogate model near the limit state, which significantly reduces the number of high-fidelity model evaluations as the limit state is resolved. Numerical results based on a recently developed adjoint-based approach for estimating the error in samples of a surrogate are provided to demonstrate (1) the robustness of the bounds on the probability of an event, and (2) that the adaptive enhancement algorithm provides a more accurate estimate of the probability of the QoI event than standard response surface approximation methods at a lower computational cost.« less

Image interpolation by adaptive 2-D autoregressive modeling and soft-decision estimation.

PubMed

Zhang, Xiangjun; Wu, Xiaolin

2008-06-01

The challenge of image interpolation is to preserve spatial details. We propose a soft-decision interpolation technique that estimates missing pixels in groups rather than one at a time. The new technique learns and adapts to varying scene structures using a 2-D piecewise autoregressive model. The model parameters are estimated in a moving window in the input low-resolution image. The pixel structure dictated by the learnt model is enforced by the soft-decision estimation process onto a block of pixels, including both observed and estimated. The result is equivalent to that of a high-order adaptive nonseparable 2-D interpolation filter. This new image interpolation approach preserves spatial coherence of interpolated images better than the existing methods, and it produces the best results so far over a wide range of scenes in both PSNR measure and subjective visual quality. Edges and textures are well preserved, and common interpolation artifacts (blurring, ringing, jaggies, zippering, etc.) are greatly reduced.

Multichannel Speech Enhancement Based on Generalized Gamma Prior Distribution with Its Online Adaptive Estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dat, Tran Huy; Takeda, Kazuya; Itakura, Fumitada

We present a multichannel speech enhancement method based on MAP speech spectral magnitude estimation using a generalized gamma model of speech prior distribution, where the model parameters are adapted from actual noisy speech in a frame-by-frame manner. The utilization of a more general prior distribution with its online adaptive estimation is shown to be effective for speech spectral estimation in noisy environments. Furthermore, the multi-channel information in terms of cross-channel statistics are shown to be useful to better adapt the prior distribution parameters to the actual observation, resulting in better performance of speech enhancement algorithm. We tested the proposed algorithm in an in-car speech database and obtained significant improvements of the speech recognition performance, particularly under non-stationary noise conditions such as music, air-conditioner and open window.

Maximum-likelihood spectral estimation and adaptive filtering techniques with application to airborne Doppler weather radar. Thesis Technical Report No. 20

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lai, Jonathan Y.

1994-01-01

This dissertation focuses on the signal processing problems associated with the detection of hazardous windshears using airborne Doppler radar when weak weather returns are in the presence of strong clutter returns. In light of the frequent inadequacy of spectral-processing oriented clutter suppression methods, we model a clutter signal as multiple sinusoids plus Gaussian noise, and propose adaptive filtering approaches that better capture the temporal characteristics of the signal process. This idea leads to two research topics in signal processing: (1) signal modeling and parameter estimation, and (2) adaptive filtering in this particular signal environment. A high-resolution, low SNR threshold maximum likelihood (ML) frequency estimation and signal modeling algorithm is devised and proves capable of delineating both the spectral and temporal nature of the clutter return. Furthermore, the Least Mean Square (LMS) -based adaptive filter's performance for the proposed signal model is investigated, and promising simulation results have testified to its potential for clutter rejection leading to more accurate estimation of windspeed thus obtaining a better assessment of the windshear hazard.

Estimation and Selection via Absolute Penalized Convex Minimization And Its Multistage Adaptive Applications

PubMed Central

Huang, Jian; Zhang, Cun-Hui

2013-01-01

The ℓ1-penalized method, or the Lasso, has emerged as an important tool for the analysis of large data sets. Many important results have been obtained for the Lasso in linear regression which have led to a deeper understanding of high-dimensional statistical problems. In this article, we consider a class of weighted ℓ1-penalized estimators for convex loss functions of a general form, including the generalized linear models. We study the estimation, prediction, selection and sparsity properties of the weighted ℓ1-penalized estimator in sparse, high-dimensional settings where the number of predictors p can be much larger than the sample size n. Adaptive Lasso is considered as a special case. A multistage method is developed to approximate concave regularized estimation by applying an adaptive Lasso recursively. We provide prediction and estimation oracle inequalities for single- and multi-stage estimators, a general selection consistency theorem, and an upper bound for the dimension of the Lasso estimator. Important models including the linear regression, logistic regression and log-linear models are used throughout to illustrate the applications of the general results. PMID:24348100

Adaptation to Climate Change: A Comparative Analysis of Modeling Methods for Heat-Related Mortality.

PubMed

Gosling, Simon N; Hondula, David M; Bunker, Aditi; Ibarreta, Dolores; Liu, Junguo; Zhang, Xinxin; Sauerborn, Rainer

2017-08-16

Multiple methods are employed for modeling adaptation when projecting the impact of climate change on heat-related mortality. The sensitivity of impacts to each is unknown because they have never been systematically compared. In addition, little is known about the relative sensitivity of impacts to "adaptation uncertainty" (i.e., the inclusion/exclusion of adaptation modeling) relative to using multiple climate models and emissions scenarios. This study had three aims: a ) Compare the range in projected impacts that arises from using different adaptation modeling methods; b ) compare the range in impacts that arises from adaptation uncertainty with ranges from using multiple climate models and emissions scenarios; c ) recommend modeling method(s) to use in future impact assessments. We estimated impacts for 2070-2099 for 14 European cities, applying six different methods for modeling adaptation; we also estimated impacts with five climate models run under two emissions scenarios to explore the relative effects of climate modeling and emissions uncertainty. The range of the difference (percent) in impacts between including and excluding adaptation, irrespective of climate modeling and emissions uncertainty, can be as low as 28% with one method and up to 103% with another (mean across 14 cities). In 13 of 14 cities, the ranges in projected impacts due to adaptation uncertainty are larger than those associated with climate modeling and emissions uncertainty. Researchers should carefully consider how to model adaptation because it is a source of uncertainty that can be greater than the uncertainty in emissions and climate modeling. We recommend absolute threshold shifts and reductions in slope. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP634.

Adaptive Modeling Procedure Selection by Data Perturbation.

PubMed

Zhang, Yongli; Shen, Xiaotong

2015-10-01

Many procedures have been developed to deal with the high-dimensional problem that is emerging in various business and economics areas. To evaluate and compare these procedures, modeling uncertainty caused by model selection and parameter estimation has to be assessed and integrated into a modeling process. To do this, a data perturbation method estimates the modeling uncertainty inherited in a selection process by perturbing the data. Critical to data perturbation is the size of perturbation, as the perturbed data should resemble the original dataset. To account for the modeling uncertainty, we derive the optimal size of perturbation, which adapts to the data, the model space, and other relevant factors in the context of linear regression. On this basis, we develop an adaptive data-perturbation method that, unlike its nonadaptive counterpart, performs well in different situations. This leads to a data-adaptive model selection method. Both theoretical and numerical analysis suggest that the data-adaptive model selection method adapts to distinct situations in that it yields consistent model selection and optimal prediction, without knowing which situation exists a priori. The proposed method is applied to real data from the commodity market and outperforms its competitors in terms of price forecasting accuracy.

Verifiable Adaptive Control with Analytical Stability Margins by Optimal Control Modification

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nguyen, Nhan T.

2010-01-01

This paper presents a verifiable model-reference adaptive control method based on an optimal control formulation for linear uncertain systems. A predictor model is formulated to enable a parameter estimation of the system parametric uncertainty. The adaptation is based on both the tracking error and predictor error. Using a singular perturbation argument, it can be shown that the closed-loop system tends to a linear time invariant model asymptotically under an assumption of fast adaptation. A stability margin analysis is given to estimate a lower bound of the time delay margin using a matrix measure method. Using this analytical method, the free design parameter n of the optimal control modification adaptive law can be determined to meet a specification of stability margin for verification purposes.

Impact of Violation of the Missing-at-Random Assumption on Full-Information Maximum Likelihood Method in Multidimensional Adaptive Testing

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Han, Kyung T.; Guo, Fanmin

2014-01-01

The full-information maximum likelihood (FIML) method makes it possible to estimate and analyze structural equation models (SEM) even when data are partially missing, enabling incomplete data to contribute to model estimation. The cornerstone of FIML is the missing-at-random (MAR) assumption. In (unidimensional) computerized adaptive testing…

Accounting for adaptation and intensity in projecting heat wave-related mortality.

PubMed

Wang, Yan; Nordio, Francesco; Nairn, John; Zanobetti, Antonella; Schwartz, Joel D

2018-02-01

How adaptation and intensity of heat waves affect heat wave-related mortality is unclear, making health projections difficult. We estimated the effect of heat waves, the effect of the intensity of heat waves, and adaptation on mortality in 209 U.S. cities with 168 million people during 1962-2006. We improved the standard time-series models by incorporating the intensity of heat waves using excess heat factor (EHF) and estimating adaptation empirically using interactions with yearly mean summer temperature (MST). We combined the epidemiological estimates for heat wave, intensity, and adaptation with the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-model dataset to project heat wave-related mortality by 2050. The effect of heat waves increased with its intensity. Adaptation to heat waves occurred, which was shown by the decreasing effect of heat waves with MST. However, adaptation was lessened as MST increased. Ignoring adaptation in projections would result in a substantial overestimate of the projected heat wave-related mortality (by 277-747% in 2050). Incorporating the empirically estimated adaptation into projections would result in little change in the projected heat wave-related mortality between 2006 and 2050. This differs regionally, however, with increasing mortality over time for cities in the southern and western U.S. but decreasing mortality over time for the north. Accounting for adaptation is important to reduce bias in the projections of heat wave-related mortality. The finding that the southern and western U.S. are the areas that face increasing heat-related deaths is novel, and indicates that more regional adaptation strategies are needed. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Estimation of Model's Marginal likelihood Using Adaptive Sparse Grid Surrogates in Bayesian Model Averaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeng, X.

2015-12-01

A large number of model executions are required to obtain alternative conceptual models' predictions and their posterior probabilities in Bayesian model averaging (BMA). The posterior model probability is estimated through models' marginal likelihood and prior probability. The heavy computation burden hinders the implementation of BMA prediction, especially for the elaborated marginal likelihood estimator. For overcoming the computation burden of BMA, an adaptive sparse grid (SG) stochastic collocation method is used to build surrogates for alternative conceptual models through the numerical experiment of a synthetical groundwater model. BMA predictions depend on model posterior weights (or marginal likelihoods), and this study also evaluated four marginal likelihood estimators, including arithmetic mean estimator (AME), harmonic mean estimator (HME), stabilized harmonic mean estimator (SHME), and thermodynamic integration estimator (TIE). The results demonstrate that TIE is accurate in estimating conceptual models' marginal likelihoods. The BMA-TIE has better predictive performance than other BMA predictions. TIE has high stability for estimating conceptual model's marginal likelihood. The repeated estimated conceptual model's marginal likelihoods by TIE have significant less variability than that estimated by other estimators. In addition, the SG surrogates are efficient to facilitate BMA predictions, especially for BMA-TIE. The number of model executions needed for building surrogates is 4.13%, 6.89%, 3.44%, and 0.43% of the required model executions of BMA-AME, BMA-HME, BMA-SHME, and BMA-TIE, respectively.

Space Object Classification and Characterization Via Multiple Model Adaptive Estimation

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-07-14

BRDF ) which models light distribution scattered from the surface due to the incident light. The BRDF at any point on the surface is a function of two...uu B vu B nu obs I u sun I u I hu (b) Reflection Geometry Fig. 2: Reflection Geometry and Space Object Shape Model of the BRDF is ρdiff(i...Space Object Classification and Characterization Via Multiple Model Adaptive Estimation Richard Linares Director’s Postdoctoral Fellow Space Science

Construction of a Computerized Adaptive Testing Version of the Quebec Adaptive Behavior Scale.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tasse, Marc J.; And Others

Multilog (Thissen, 1991) was used to estimate parameters of 225 items from the Quebec Adaptive Behavior Scale (QABS). A database containing actual data from 2,439 subjects was used for the parameterization procedures. The two-parameter-logistic model was used in estimating item parameters and in the testing strategy. MicroCAT (Assessment Systems…

Adaptive Modal Identification for Flutter Suppression Control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nguyen, Nhan T.; Drew, Michael; Swei, Sean S.

2016-01-01

In this paper, we will develop an adaptive modal identification method for identifying the frequencies and damping of a flutter mode based on model-reference adaptive control (MRAC) and least-squares methods. The least-squares parameter estimation will achieve parameter convergence in the presence of persistent excitation whereas the MRAC parameter estimation does not guarantee parameter convergence. Two adaptive flutter suppression control approaches are developed: one based on MRAC and the other based on the least-squares method. The MRAC flutter suppression control is designed as an integral part of the parameter estimation where the feedback signal is used to estimate the modal information. On the other hand, the separation principle of control and estimation is applied to the least-squares method. The least-squares modal identification is used to perform parameter estimation.

Adaptation to Climate Change: A Comparative Analysis of Modeling Methods for Heat-Related Mortality

PubMed Central

Hondula, David M.; Bunker, Aditi; Ibarreta, Dolores; Liu, Junguo; Zhang, Xinxin; Sauerborn, Rainer

2017-01-01

Background: Multiple methods are employed for modeling adaptation when projecting the impact of climate change on heat-related mortality. The sensitivity of impacts to each is unknown because they have never been systematically compared. In addition, little is known about the relative sensitivity of impacts to “adaptation uncertainty” (i.e., the inclusion/exclusion of adaptation modeling) relative to using multiple climate models and emissions scenarios. Objectives: This study had three aims: a) Compare the range in projected impacts that arises from using different adaptation modeling methods; b) compare the range in impacts that arises from adaptation uncertainty with ranges from using multiple climate models and emissions scenarios; c) recommend modeling method(s) to use in future impact assessments. Methods: We estimated impacts for 2070–2099 for 14 European cities, applying six different methods for modeling adaptation; we also estimated impacts with five climate models run under two emissions scenarios to explore the relative effects of climate modeling and emissions uncertainty. Results: The range of the difference (percent) in impacts between including and excluding adaptation, irrespective of climate modeling and emissions uncertainty, can be as low as 28% with one method and up to 103% with another (mean across 14 cities). In 13 of 14 cities, the ranges in projected impacts due to adaptation uncertainty are larger than those associated with climate modeling and emissions uncertainty. Conclusions: Researchers should carefully consider how to model adaptation because it is a source of uncertainty that can be greater than the uncertainty in emissions and climate modeling. We recommend absolute threshold shifts and reductions in slope. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP634 PMID:28885979

Coestimation of recombination, substitution and molecular adaptation rates by approximate Bayesian computation.

PubMed

Lopes, J S; Arenas, M; Posada, D; Beaumont, M A

2014-03-01

The estimation of parameters in molecular evolution may be biased when some processes are not considered. For example, the estimation of selection at the molecular level using codon-substitution models can have an upward bias when recombination is ignored. Here we address the joint estimation of recombination, molecular adaptation and substitution rates from coding sequences using approximate Bayesian computation (ABC). We describe the implementation of a regression-based strategy for choosing subsets of summary statistics for coding data, and show that this approach can accurately infer recombination allowing for intracodon recombination breakpoints, molecular adaptation and codon substitution rates. We demonstrate that our ABC approach can outperform other analytical methods under a variety of evolutionary scenarios. We also show that although the choice of the codon-substitution model is important, our inferences are robust to a moderate degree of model misspecification. In addition, we demonstrate that our approach can accurately choose the evolutionary model that best fits the data, providing an alternative for when the use of full-likelihood methods is impracticable. Finally, we applied our ABC method to co-estimate recombination, substitution and molecular adaptation rates from 24 published human immunodeficiency virus 1 coding data sets.

An adaptive model for vanadium redox flow battery and its application for online peak power estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Zhongbao; Meng, Shujuan; Tseng, King Jet; Lim, Tuti Mariana; Soong, Boon Hee; Skyllas-Kazacos, Maria

2017-03-01

An accurate battery model is the prerequisite for reliable state estimate of vanadium redox battery (VRB). As the battery model parameters are time varying with operating condition variation and battery aging, the common methods where model parameters are empirical or prescribed offline lacks accuracy and robustness. To address this issue, this paper proposes to use an online adaptive battery model to reproduce the VRB dynamics accurately. The model parameters are online identified with both the recursive least squares (RLS) and the extended Kalman filter (EKF). Performance comparison shows that the RLS is superior with respect to the modeling accuracy, convergence property, and computational complexity. Based on the online identified battery model, an adaptive peak power estimator which incorporates the constraints of voltage limit, SOC limit and design limit of current is proposed to fully exploit the potential of the VRB. Experiments are conducted on a lab-scale VRB system and the proposed peak power estimator is verified with a specifically designed "two-step verification" method. It is shown that different constraints dominate the allowable peak power at different stages of cycling. The influence of prediction time horizon selection on the peak power is also analyzed.

Modeling and quantification of repolarization feature dependency on heart rate.

PubMed

Minchole, A; Zacur, E; Pueyo, E; Laguna, P

2014-01-01

This article is part of the Focus Theme of Methods of Information in Medicine on "Biosignal Interpretation: Advanced Methods for Studying Cardiovascular and Respiratory Systems". This work aims at providing an efficient method to estimate the parameters of a non linear model including memory, previously proposed to characterize rate adaptation of repolarization indices. The physiological restrictions on the model parameters have been included in the cost function in such a way that unconstrained optimization techniques such as descent optimization methods can be used for parameter estimation. The proposed method has been evaluated on electrocardiogram (ECG) recordings of healthy subjects performing a tilt test, where rate adaptation of QT and Tpeak-to-Tend (Tpe) intervals has been characterized. The proposed strategy results in an efficient methodology to characterize rate adaptation of repolarization features, improving the convergence time with respect to previous strategies. Moreover, Tpe interval adapts faster to changes in heart rate than the QT interval. In this work an efficient estimation of the parameters of a model aimed at characterizing rate adaptation of repolarization features has been proposed. The Tpe interval has been shown to be rate related and with a shorter memory lag than the QT interval.

Adaptive clutter rejection filters for airborne Doppler weather radar applied to the detection of low altitude windshear

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Keel, Byron M.

1989-01-01

An optimum adaptive clutter rejection filter for use with airborne Doppler weather radar is presented. The radar system is being designed to operate at low-altitudes for the detection of windshear in an airport terminal area where ground clutter returns may mask the weather return. The coefficients of the adaptive clutter rejection filter are obtained using a complex form of a square root normalized recursive least squares lattice estimation algorithm which models the clutter return data as an autoregressive process. The normalized lattice structure implementation of the adaptive modeling process for determining the filter coefficients assures that the resulting coefficients will yield a stable filter and offers possible fixed point implementation. A 10th order FIR clutter rejection filter indexed by geographical location is designed through autoregressive modeling of simulated clutter data. Filtered data, containing simulated dry microburst and clutter return, are analyzed using pulse-pair estimation techniques. To measure the ability of the clutter rejection filters to remove the clutter, results are compared to pulse-pair estimates of windspeed within a simulated dry microburst without clutter. In the filter evaluation process, post-filtered pulse-pair width estimates and power levels are also used to measure the effectiveness of the filters. The results support the use of an adaptive clutter rejection filter for reducing the clutter induced bias in pulse-pair estimates of windspeed.

Adaptive Parameter Estimation of Person Recognition Model in a Stochastic Human Tracking Process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakanishi, W.; Fuse, T.; Ishikawa, T.

2015-05-01

This paper aims at an estimation of parameters of person recognition models using a sequential Bayesian filtering method. In many human tracking method, any parameters of models used for recognize the same person in successive frames are usually set in advance of human tracking process. In real situation these parameters may change according to situation of observation and difficulty level of human position prediction. Thus in this paper we formulate an adaptive parameter estimation using general state space model. Firstly we explain the way to formulate human tracking in general state space model with their components. Then referring to previous researches, we use Bhattacharyya coefficient to formulate observation model of general state space model, which is corresponding to person recognition model. The observation model in this paper is a function of Bhattacharyya coefficient with one unknown parameter. At last we sequentially estimate this parameter in real dataset with some settings. Results showed that sequential parameter estimation was succeeded and were consistent with observation situations such as occlusions.

Development of a Bayesian response-adaptive trial design for the Dexamethasone for Excessive Menstruation study.

PubMed

Holm Hansen, Christian; Warner, Pamela; Parker, Richard A; Walker, Brian R; Critchley, Hilary Od; Weir, Christopher J

2017-12-01

It is often unclear what specific adaptive trial design features lead to an efficient design which is also feasible to implement. This article describes the preparatory simulation study for a Bayesian response-adaptive dose-finding trial design. Dexamethasone for Excessive Menstruation aims to assess the efficacy of Dexamethasone in reducing excessive menstrual bleeding and to determine the best dose for further study. To maximise learning about the dose response, patients receive placebo or an active dose with randomisation probabilities adapting based on evidence from patients already recruited. The dose-response relationship is estimated using a flexible Bayesian Normal Dynamic Linear Model. Several competing design options were considered including: number of doses, proportion assigned to placebo, adaptation criterion, and number and timing of adaptations. We performed a fractional factorial study using SAS software to simulate virtual trial data for candidate adaptive designs under a variety of scenarios and to invoke WinBUGS for Bayesian model estimation. We analysed the simulated trial results using Normal linear models to estimate the effects of each design feature on empirical type I error and statistical power. Our readily-implemented approach using widely available statistical software identified a final design which performed robustly across a range of potential trial scenarios.

A new adaptive estimation method of spacecraft thermal mathematical model with an ensemble Kalman filter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akita, T.; Takaki, R.; Shima, E.

2012-04-01

An adaptive estimation method of spacecraft thermal mathematical model is presented. The method is based on the ensemble Kalman filter, which can effectively handle the nonlinearities contained in the thermal model. The state space equations of the thermal mathematical model is derived, where both temperature and uncertain thermal characteristic parameters are considered as the state variables. In the method, the thermal characteristic parameters are automatically estimated as the outputs of the filtered state variables, whereas, in the usual thermal model correlation, they are manually identified by experienced engineers using trial-and-error approach. A numerical experiment of a simple small satellite is provided to verify the effectiveness of the presented method.

A Simple Method for Deriving the Confidence Regions for the Penalized Cox’s Model via the Minimand Perturbation†

PubMed Central

Lin, Chen-Yen; Halabi, Susan

2017-01-01

We propose a minimand perturbation method to derive the confidence regions for the regularized estimators for the Cox’s proportional hazards model. Although the regularized estimation procedure produces a more stable point estimate, it remains challenging to provide an interval estimator or an analytic variance estimator for the associated point estimate. Based on the sandwich formula, the current variance estimator provides a simple approximation, but its finite sample performance is not entirely satisfactory. Besides, the sandwich formula can only provide variance estimates for the non-zero coefficients. In this article, we present a generic description for the perturbation method and then introduce a computation algorithm using the adaptive least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) penalty. Through simulation studies, we demonstrate that our method can better approximate the limiting distribution of the adaptive LASSO estimator and produces more accurate inference compared with the sandwich formula. The simulation results also indicate the possibility of extending the applications to the adaptive elastic-net penalty. We further demonstrate our method using data from a phase III clinical trial in prostate cancer. PMID:29326496

A Simple Method for Deriving the Confidence Regions for the Penalized Cox's Model via the Minimand Perturbation.

PubMed

Lin, Chen-Yen; Halabi, Susan

2017-01-01

We propose a minimand perturbation method to derive the confidence regions for the regularized estimators for the Cox's proportional hazards model. Although the regularized estimation procedure produces a more stable point estimate, it remains challenging to provide an interval estimator or an analytic variance estimator for the associated point estimate. Based on the sandwich formula, the current variance estimator provides a simple approximation, but its finite sample performance is not entirely satisfactory. Besides, the sandwich formula can only provide variance estimates for the non-zero coefficients. In this article, we present a generic description for the perturbation method and then introduce a computation algorithm using the adaptive least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) penalty. Through simulation studies, we demonstrate that our method can better approximate the limiting distribution of the adaptive LASSO estimator and produces more accurate inference compared with the sandwich formula. The simulation results also indicate the possibility of extending the applications to the adaptive elastic-net penalty. We further demonstrate our method using data from a phase III clinical trial in prostate cancer.

Ensemble-Based Parameter Estimation in a Coupled GCM Using the Adaptive Spatial Average Method

DOE PAGES

Liu, Y.; Liu, Z.; Zhang, S.; ...

2014-05-29

Ensemble-based parameter estimation for a climate model is emerging as an important topic in climate research. And for a complex system such as a coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model, the sensitivity and response of a model variable to a model parameter could vary spatially and temporally. An adaptive spatial average (ASA) algorithm is proposed to increase the efficiency of parameter estimation. Refined from a previous spatial average method, the ASA uses the ensemble spread as the criterion for selecting “good” values from the spatially varying posterior estimated parameter values; these good values are then averaged to give the final globalmore » uniform posterior parameter. In comparison with existing methods, the ASA parameter estimation has a superior performance: faster convergence and enhanced signal-to-noise ratio.« less

Adaptive particle filter for robust visual tracking

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dai, Jianghua; Yu, Shengsheng; Sun, Weiping; Chen, Xiaoping; Xiang, Jinhai

2009-10-01

Object tracking plays a key role in the field of computer vision. Particle filter has been widely used for visual tracking under nonlinear and/or non-Gaussian circumstances. In particle filter, the state transition model for predicting the next location of tracked object assumes the object motion is invariable, which cannot well approximate the varying dynamics of the motion changes. In addition, the state estimate calculated by the mean of all the weighted particles is coarse or inaccurate due to various noise disturbances. Both these two factors may degrade tracking performance greatly. In this work, an adaptive particle filter (APF) with a velocity-updating based transition model (VTM) and an adaptive state estimate approach (ASEA) is proposed to improve object tracking. In APF, the motion velocity embedded into the state transition model is updated continuously by a recursive equation, and the state estimate is obtained adaptively according to the state posterior distribution. The experiment results show that the APF can increase the tracking accuracy and efficiency in complex environments.

The never ending road: improving, adapting and refining a needs-based model to estimate future general practitioner requirements in two Australian states.

PubMed

Laurence, Caroline O; Heywood, Troy; Bell, Janice; Atkinson, Kaye; Karnon, Jonathan

2018-03-27

Health workforce planning models have been developed to estimate the future health workforce requirements for a population whom they serve and have been used to inform policy decisions. To adapt and further develop a need-based GP workforce simulation model to incorporate current and estimated geographic distribution of patients and GPs. A need-based simulation model that estimates the supply of GPs and levels of services required in South Australia (SA) was adapted and applied to the Western Australian (WA) workforce. The main outcome measure was the differences in the number of full-time equivalent (FTE) GPs supplied and required from 2013 to 2033. The base scenario estimated a shortage of GPs in WA from 2019 onwards with a shortage of 493 FTE GPs in 2033, while for SA, estimates showed an oversupply over the projection period. The WA urban and rural models estimated an urban shortage of GPs over this period. A reduced international medical graduate recruitment scenario resulted in estimated shortfalls of GPs by 2033 for WA and SA. The WA-specific scenarios of lower population projections and registrar work value resulted in a reduced shortage of FTE GPs in 2033, while unfilled training places increased the shortfall of FTE GPs in 2033. The simulation model incorporates contextual differences to its structure that allows within and cross jurisdictional comparisons of workforce estimations. It also provides greater insights into the drivers of supply and demand and the impact of changes in workforce policy, promoting more informed decision-making.

Adaptive control and noise suppression by a variable-gain gradient algorithm

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Merhav, S. J.; Mehta, R. S.

1987-01-01

An adaptive control system based on normalized LMS filters is investigated. The finite impulse response of the nonparametric controller is adaptively estimated using a given reference model. Specifically, the following issues are addressed: The stability of the closed loop system is analyzed and heuristically established. Next, the adaptation process is studied for piecewise constant plant parameters. It is shown that by introducing a variable-gain in the gradient algorithm, a substantial reduction in the LMS adaptation rate can be achieved. Finally, process noise at the plant output generally causes a biased estimate of the controller. By introducing a noise suppression scheme, this bias can be substantially reduced and the response of the adapted system becomes very close to that of the reference model. Extensive computer simulations validate these and demonstrate assertions that the system can rapidly adapt to random jumps in plant parameters.

Adaptive estimation of the log fluctuating conductivity from tracer data at the Cape Cod Site

USGS Publications Warehouse

Deng, F.W.; Cushman, J.H.; Delleur, J.W.

1993-01-01

An adaptive estimation scheme is used to obtain the integral scale and variance of the log-fluctuating conductivity at the Cape Cod site based on the fast Fourier transform/stochastic model of Deng et al. (1993) and a Kalmanlike filter. The filter incorporates prior estimates of the unknown parameters with tracer moment data to adaptively obtain improved estimates as the tracer evolves. The results show that significant improvement in the prior estimates of the conductivity can lead to substantial improvement in the ability to predict plume movement. The structure of the covariance function of the log-fluctuating conductivity can be identified from the robustness of the estimation. Both the longitudinal and transverse spatial moment data are important to the estimation.

Light-based Modeling and Control of Circadian Rhythm

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-08-29

the foundation of the full research. 1. Circadian phase estimation and control: Demonstrate the applicability of the adaptive notch filter (ANF) to...the adaptive notch filter (ANF) to extract circadian phase from noisy Drosophila locomotive activity measurements and the efficacy of using the ANF...full research. 1. Circadian phase estimation and control: Demonstrate the applicability of the adaptive notch filter (ANF) to extract circadian

Heading Estimation for Pedestrian Dead Reckoning Based on Robust Adaptive Kalman Filtering.

PubMed

Wu, Dongjin; Xia, Linyuan; Geng, Jijun

2018-06-19

Pedestrian dead reckoning (PDR) using smart phone-embedded micro-electro-mechanical system (MEMS) sensors plays a key role in ubiquitous localization indoors and outdoors. However, as a relative localization method, it suffers from the problem of error accumulation which prevents it from long term independent running. Heading estimation error is one of the main location error sources, and therefore, in order to improve the location tracking performance of the PDR method in complex environments, an approach based on robust adaptive Kalman filtering (RAKF) for estimating accurate headings is proposed. In our approach, outputs from gyroscope, accelerometer, and magnetometer sensors are fused using the solution of Kalman filtering (KF) that the heading measurements derived from accelerations and magnetic field data are used to correct the states integrated from angular rates. In order to identify and control measurement outliers, a maximum likelihood-type estimator (M-estimator)-based model is used. Moreover, an adaptive factor is applied to resist the negative effects of state model disturbances. Extensive experiments under static and dynamic conditions were conducted in indoor environments. The experimental results demonstrate the proposed approach provides more accurate heading estimates and supports more robust and dynamic adaptive location tracking, compared with methods based on conventional KF.

Logs Analysis of Adapted Pedagogical Scenarios Generated by a Simulation Serious Game Architecture

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Callies, Sophie; Gravel, Mathieu; Beaudry, Eric; Basque, Josianne

2017-01-01

This paper presents an architecture designed for simulation serious games, which automatically generates game-based scenarios adapted to learner's learning progression. We present three central modules of the architecture: (1) the learner model, (2) the adaptation module and (3) the logs module. The learner model estimates the progression of the…

A New Adaptive H-Infinity Filtering Algorithm for the GPS/INS Integrated Navigation

PubMed Central

Jiang, Chen; Zhang, Shu-Bi; Zhang, Qiu-Zhao

2016-01-01

The Kalman filter is an optimal estimator with numerous applications in technology, especially in systems with Gaussian distributed noise. Moreover, the adaptive Kalman filtering algorithms, based on the Kalman filter, can control the influence of dynamic model errors. In contrast to the adaptive Kalman filtering algorithms, the H-infinity filter is able to address the interference of the stochastic model by minimization of the worst-case estimation error. In this paper, a novel adaptive H-infinity filtering algorithm, which integrates the adaptive Kalman filter and the H-infinity filter in order to perform a comprehensive filtering algorithm, is presented. In the proposed algorithm, a robust estimation method is employed to control the influence of outliers. In order to verify the proposed algorithm, experiments with real data of the Global Positioning System (GPS) and Inertial Navigation System (INS) integrated navigation, were conducted. The experimental results have shown that the proposed algorithm has multiple advantages compared to the other filtering algorithms. PMID:27999361

A New Adaptive H-Infinity Filtering Algorithm for the GPS/INS Integrated Navigation.

PubMed

Jiang, Chen; Zhang, Shu-Bi; Zhang, Qiu-Zhao

2016-12-19

The Kalman filter is an optimal estimator with numerous applications in technology, especially in systems with Gaussian distributed noise. Moreover, the adaptive Kalman filtering algorithms, based on the Kalman filter, can control the influence of dynamic model errors. In contrast to the adaptive Kalman filtering algorithms, the H-infinity filter is able to address the interference of the stochastic model by minimization of the worst-case estimation error. In this paper, a novel adaptive H-infinity filtering algorithm, which integrates the adaptive Kalman filter and the H-infinity filter in order to perform a comprehensive filtering algorithm, is presented. In the proposed algorithm, a robust estimation method is employed to control the influence of outliers. In order to verify the proposed algorithm, experiments with real data of the Global Positioning System (GPS) and Inertial Navigation System (INS) integrated navigation, were conducted. The experimental results have shown that the proposed algorithm has multiple advantages compared to the other filtering algorithms.

Adaptive estimation of state of charge and capacity with online identified battery model for vanadium redox flow battery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Zhongbao; Tseng, King Jet; Wai, Nyunt; Lim, Tuti Mariana; Skyllas-Kazacos, Maria

2016-11-01

Reliable state estimate depends largely on an accurate battery model. However, the parameters of battery model are time varying with operating condition variation and battery aging. The existing co-estimation methods address the model uncertainty by integrating the online model identification with state estimate and have shown improved accuracy. However, the cross interference may arise from the integrated framework to compromise numerical stability and accuracy. Thus this paper proposes the decoupling of model identification and state estimate to eliminate the possibility of cross interference. The model parameters are online adapted with the recursive least squares (RLS) method, based on which a novel joint estimator based on extended Kalman Filter (EKF) is formulated to estimate the state of charge (SOC) and capacity concurrently. The proposed joint estimator effectively compresses the filter order which leads to substantial improvement in the computational efficiency and numerical stability. Lab scale experiment on vanadium redox flow battery shows that the proposed method is highly authentic with good robustness to varying operating conditions and battery aging. The proposed method is further compared with some existing methods and shown to be superior in terms of accuracy, convergence speed, and computational cost.

Estimating Skin Cancer Risk: Evaluating Mobile Computer-Adaptive Testing.

PubMed

Djaja, Ngadiman; Janda, Monika; Olsen, Catherine M; Whiteman, David C; Chien, Tsair-Wei

2016-01-22

Response burden is a major detriment to questionnaire completion rates. Computer adaptive testing may offer advantages over non-adaptive testing, including reduction of numbers of items required for precise measurement. Our aim was to compare the efficiency of non-adaptive (NAT) and computer adaptive testing (CAT) facilitated by Partial Credit Model (PCM)-derived calibration to estimate skin cancer risk. We used a random sample from a population-based Australian cohort study of skin cancer risk (N=43,794). All 30 items of the skin cancer risk scale were calibrated with the Rasch PCM. A total of 1000 cases generated following a normal distribution (mean [SD] 0 [1]) were simulated using three Rasch models with three fixed-item (dichotomous, rating scale, and partial credit) scenarios, respectively. We calculated the comparative efficiency and precision of CAT and NAT (shortening of questionnaire length and the count difference number ratio less than 5% using independent t tests). We found that use of CAT led to smaller person standard error of the estimated measure than NAT, with substantially higher efficiency but no loss of precision, reducing response burden by 48%, 66%, and 66% for dichotomous, Rating Scale Model, and PCM models, respectively. CAT-based administrations of the skin cancer risk scale could substantially reduce participant burden without compromising measurement precision. A mobile computer adaptive test was developed to help people efficiently assess their skin cancer risk.

Data-Adaptive Bias-Reduced Doubly Robust Estimation.

PubMed

Vermeulen, Karel; Vansteelandt, Stijn

2016-05-01

Doubly robust estimators have now been proposed for a variety of target parameters in the causal inference and missing data literature. These consistently estimate the parameter of interest under a semiparametric model when one of two nuisance working models is correctly specified, regardless of which. The recently proposed bias-reduced doubly robust estimation procedure aims to partially retain this robustness in more realistic settings where both working models are misspecified. These so-called bias-reduced doubly robust estimators make use of special (finite-dimensional) nuisance parameter estimators that are designed to locally minimize the squared asymptotic bias of the doubly robust estimator in certain directions of these finite-dimensional nuisance parameters under misspecification of both parametric working models. In this article, we extend this idea to incorporate the use of data-adaptive estimators (infinite-dimensional nuisance parameters), by exploiting the bias reduction estimation principle in the direction of only one nuisance parameter. We additionally provide an asymptotic linearity theorem which gives the influence function of the proposed doubly robust estimator under correct specification of a parametric nuisance working model for the missingness mechanism/propensity score but a possibly misspecified (finite- or infinite-dimensional) outcome working model. Simulation studies confirm the desirable finite-sample performance of the proposed estimators relative to a variety of other doubly robust estimators.

Model-on-Demand Predictive Control for Nonlinear Hybrid Systems With Application to Adaptive Behavioral Interventions

PubMed Central

Nandola, Naresh N.; Rivera, Daniel E.

2011-01-01

This paper presents a data-centric modeling and predictive control approach for nonlinear hybrid systems. System identification of hybrid systems represents a challenging problem because model parameters depend on the mode or operating point of the system. The proposed algorithm applies Model-on-Demand (MoD) estimation to generate a local linear approximation of the nonlinear hybrid system at each time step, using a small subset of data selected by an adaptive bandwidth selector. The appeal of the MoD approach lies in the fact that model parameters are estimated based on a current operating point; hence estimation of locations or modes governed by autonomous discrete events is achieved automatically. The local MoD model is then converted into a mixed logical dynamical (MLD) system representation which can be used directly in a model predictive control (MPC) law for hybrid systems using multiple-degree-of-freedom tuning. The effectiveness of the proposed MoD predictive control algorithm for nonlinear hybrid systems is demonstrated on a hypothetical adaptive behavioral intervention problem inspired by Fast Track, a real-life preventive intervention for improving parental function and reducing conduct disorder in at-risk children. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed algorithm can be useful for adaptive intervention problems exhibiting both nonlinear and hybrid character. PMID:21874087

Adaptive Quadrature for Item Response Models. Research Report. ETS RR-06-29

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Haberman, Shelby J.

2006-01-01

Adaptive quadrature is applied to marginal maximum likelihood estimation for item response models with normal ability distributions. Even in one dimension, significant gains in speed and accuracy of computation may be achieved.

Number of discernible object colors is a conundrum.

PubMed

Masaoka, Kenichiro; Berns, Roy S; Fairchild, Mark D; Moghareh Abed, Farhad

2013-02-01

Widely varying estimates of the number of discernible object colors have been made by using various methods over the past 100 years. To clarify the source of the discrepancies in the previous, inconsistent estimates, the number of discernible object colors is estimated over a wide range of color temperatures and illuminance levels using several chromatic adaptation models, color spaces, and color difference limens. Efficient and accurate models are used to compute optimal-color solids and count the number of discernible colors. A comprehensive simulation reveals limitations in the ability of current color appearance models to estimate the number of discernible colors even if the color solid is smaller than the optimal-color solid. The estimates depend on the color appearance model, color space, and color difference limen used. The fundamental problem lies in the von Kries-type chromatic adaptation transforms, which have an unknown effect on the ranking of the number of discernible colors at different color temperatures.

Modeling update for the Thirty Meter Telescope laser guide star dual-conjugate adaptive optics system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gilles, Luc; Wang, Lianqi; Ellerbroek, Brent

2010-07-01

This paper describes the modeling efforts undertaken in the past couple of years to derive wavefront error (WFE) performance estimates for the Narrow Field Infrared Adaptive Optics System (NFIRAOS), which is the facility laser guide star (LGS) dual-conjugate adaptive optics (AO) system for the Thirty Meter Telescope (TMT). The estimates describe the expected performance of NFIRAOS as a function of seeing on Mauna Kea, zenith angle, and galactic latitude (GL). They have been developed through a combination of integrated AO simulations, side analyses, allocations, lab and lidar experiments.

Online vegetation parameter estimation using passive microwave remote sensing observations

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

In adaptive system identification the Kalman filter can be used to identify the coefficient of the observation operator of a linear system. Here the ensemble Kalman filter is tested for adaptive online estimation of the vegetation opacity parameter of a radiative transfer model. A state augmentatio...

An Adaptive Model of Student Performance Using Inverse Bayes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lang, Charles

2014-01-01

This article proposes a coherent framework for the use of Inverse Bayesian estimation to summarize and make predictions about student behaviour in adaptive educational settings. The Inverse Bayes Filter utilizes Bayes theorem to estimate the relative impact of contextual factors and internal student factors on student performance using time series…

Estimating power capability of aged lithium-ion batteries in presence of communication delays

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fridholm, Björn; Wik, Torsten; Kuusisto, Hannes; Klintberg, Anton

2018-04-01

Efficient control of electrified powertrains requires accurate estimation of the power capability of the battery for the next few seconds into the future. When implemented in a vehicle, the power estimation is part of a control loop that may contain several networked controllers which introduces time delays that may jeopardize stability. In this article, we present and evaluate an adaptive power estimation method that robustly can handle uncertain health status and time delays. A theoretical analysis shows that stability of the closed loop system can be lost if the resistance of the model is under-estimated. Stability can, however, be restored by filtering the estimated power at the expense of slightly reduced bandwidth of the signal. The adaptive algorithm is experimentally validated in lab tests using an aged lithium-ion cell subject to a high power load profile in temperatures from -20 to +25 °C. The upper voltage limit was set to 4.15 V and the lower voltage limit to 2.6 V, where significant non-linearities are occurring and the validity of the model is limited. After an initial transient when the model parameters are adapted, the prediction accuracy is within ± 2 % of the actually available power.

Adaptive Modeling Language and Its Derivatives

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chemaly, Adel

2006-01-01

Adaptive Modeling Language (AML) is the underlying language of an object-oriented, multidisciplinary, knowledge-based engineering framework. AML offers an advanced modeling paradigm with an open architecture, enabling the automation of the entire product development cycle, integrating product configuration, design, analysis, visualization, production planning, inspection, and cost estimation.

Regional vertical total electron content (VTEC) modeling together with satellite and receiver differential code biases (DCBs) using semi-parametric multivariate adaptive regression B-splines (SP-BMARS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Durmaz, Murat; Karslioglu, Mahmut Onur

2015-04-01

There are various global and regional methods that have been proposed for the modeling of ionospheric vertical total electron content (VTEC). Global distribution of VTEC is usually modeled by spherical harmonic expansions, while tensor products of compactly supported univariate B-splines can be used for regional modeling. In these empirical parametric models, the coefficients of the basis functions as well as differential code biases (DCBs) of satellites and receivers can be treated as unknown parameters which can be estimated from geometry-free linear combinations of global positioning system observables. In this work we propose a new semi-parametric multivariate adaptive regression B-splines (SP-BMARS) method for the regional modeling of VTEC together with satellite and receiver DCBs, where the parametric part of the model is related to the DCBs as fixed parameters and the non-parametric part adaptively models the spatio-temporal distribution of VTEC. The latter is based on multivariate adaptive regression B-splines which is a non-parametric modeling technique making use of compactly supported B-spline basis functions that are generated from the observations automatically. This algorithm takes advantage of an adaptive scale-by-scale model building strategy that searches for best-fitting B-splines to the data at each scale. The VTEC maps generated from the proposed method are compared numerically and visually with the global ionosphere maps (GIMs) which are provided by the Center for Orbit Determination in Europe (CODE). The VTEC values from SP-BMARS and CODE GIMs are also compared with VTEC values obtained through calibration using local ionospheric model. The estimated satellite and receiver DCBs from the SP-BMARS model are compared with the CODE distributed DCBs. The results show that the SP-BMARS algorithm can be used to estimate satellite and receiver DCBs while adaptively and flexibly modeling the daily regional VTEC.

Estimating Position of Mobile Robots From Omnidirectional Vision Using an Adaptive Algorithm.

PubMed

Li, Luyang; Liu, Yun-Hui; Wang, Kai; Fang, Mu

2015-08-01

This paper presents a novel and simple adaptive algorithm for estimating the position of a mobile robot with high accuracy in an unknown and unstructured environment by fusing images of an omnidirectional vision system with measurements of odometry and inertial sensors. Based on a new derivation where the omnidirectional projection can be linearly parameterized by the positions of the robot and natural feature points, we propose a novel adaptive algorithm, which is similar to the Slotine-Li algorithm in model-based adaptive control, to estimate the robot's position by using the tracked feature points in image sequence, the robot's velocity, and orientation angles measured by odometry and inertial sensors. It is proved that the adaptive algorithm leads to global exponential convergence of the position estimation errors to zero. Simulations and real-world experiments are performed to demonstrate the performance of the proposed algorithm.

Application of positive-real functions in hyperstable discrete model-reference adaptive system design.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Karmarkar, J. S.

1972-01-01

Proposal of an algorithmic procedure, based on mathematical programming methods, to design compensators for hyperstable discrete model-reference adaptive systems (MRAS). The objective of the compensator is to render the MRAS insensitive to initial parameter estimates within a maximized hypercube in the model parameter space.

The Role of Parametric Assumptions in Adaptive Bayesian Estimation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Alcala-Quintana, Rocio; Garcia-Perez, Miguel A.

2004-01-01

Variants of adaptive Bayesian procedures for estimating the 5% point on a psychometric function were studied by simulation. Bias and standard error were the criteria to evaluate performance. The results indicated a superiority of (a) uniform priors, (b) model likelihood functions that are odd symmetric about threshold and that have parameter…

Item Selection and Ability Estimation Procedures for a Mixed-Format Adaptive Test

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ho, Tsung-Han; Dodd, Barbara G.

2012-01-01

In this study we compared five item selection procedures using three ability estimation methods in the context of a mixed-format adaptive test based on the generalized partial credit model. The item selection procedures used were maximum posterior weighted information, maximum expected information, maximum posterior weighted Kullback-Leibler…

A Feedback Control Strategy for Enhancing Item Selection Efficiency in Computerized Adaptive Testing

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Weissman, Alexander

2006-01-01

A computerized adaptive test (CAT) may be modeled as a closed-loop system, where item selection is influenced by trait level ([theta]) estimation and vice versa. When discrepancies exist between an examinee's estimated and true [theta] levels, nonoptimal item selection is a likely result. Nevertheless, examinee response behavior consistent with…

A New Approach of Juvenile Age Estimation using Measurements of the Ilium and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) Models for Better Age Prediction.

PubMed

Corron, Louise; Marchal, François; Condemi, Silvana; Chaumoître, Kathia; Adalian, Pascal

2017-01-01

Juvenile age estimation methods used in forensic anthropology generally lack methodological consistency and/or statistical validity. Considering this, a standard approach using nonparametric Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) models were tested to predict age from iliac biometric variables of male and female juveniles from Marseilles, France, aged 0-12 years. Models using unidimensional (length and width) and bidimensional iliac data (module and surface) were constructed on a training sample of 176 individuals and validated on an independent test sample of 68 individuals. Results show that MARS prediction models using iliac width, module and area give overall better and statistically valid age estimates. These models integrate punctual nonlinearities of the relationship between age and osteometric variables. By constructing valid prediction intervals whose size increases with age, MARS models take into account the normal increase of individual variability. MARS models can qualify as a practical and standardized approach for juvenile age estimation. © 2016 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

On Time Delay Margin Estimation for Adaptive Control and Optimal Control Modification

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nguyen, Nhan T.

2011-01-01

This paper presents methods for estimating time delay margin for adaptive control of input delay systems with almost linear structured uncertainty. The bounded linear stability analysis method seeks to represent an adaptive law by a locally bounded linear approximation within a small time window. The time delay margin of this input delay system represents a local stability measure and is computed analytically by three methods: Pade approximation, Lyapunov-Krasovskii method, and the matrix measure method. These methods are applied to the standard model-reference adaptive control, s-modification adaptive law, and optimal control modification adaptive law. The windowing analysis results in non-unique estimates of the time delay margin since it is dependent on the length of a time window and parameters which vary from one time window to the next. The optimal control modification adaptive law overcomes this limitation in that, as the adaptive gain tends to infinity and if the matched uncertainty is linear, then the closed-loop input delay system tends to a LTI system. A lower bound of the time delay margin of this system can then be estimated uniquely without the need for the windowing analysis. Simulation results demonstrates the feasibility of the bounded linear stability method for time delay margin estimation.

Distributed and self-adaptive vehicle speed estimation in the composite braking case for four-wheel drive hybrid electric car

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Z.-G.; Zhou, L.-J.; Zhang, J.-T.; Zhu, Q.; Hedrick, J.-K.

2017-05-01

Considering the controllability and observability of the braking torques of the hub motor, Integrated Starter Generator (ISG), and hydraulic brake for four-wheel drive (4WD) hybrid electric cars, a distributed and self-adaptive vehicle speed estimation algorithm for different braking situations has been proposed by fully utilising the Electronic Stability Program (ESP) sensor signals and multiple powersource signals. Firstly, the simulation platform of a 4WD hybrid electric car was established, which integrates an electronic-hydraulic composited braking system model and its control strategy, a nonlinear seven degrees-of-freedom vehicle dynamics model, and the Burckhardt tyre model. Secondly, combining the braking torque signals with the ESP signals, self-adaptive unscented Kalman sub-filter and main-filter adaptable to the observation noise were, respectively, designed. Thirdly, the fusion rules for the sub-filters and master filter were proposed herein, and the estimation results were compared with the simulated value of a real vehicle speed. Finally, based on the hardware in-the-loop platform and by picking up the regenerative motor torque signals and wheel cylinder pressure signals, the proposed speed estimation algorithm was tested under the case of moderate braking on the highly adhesive road, and the case of Antilock Braking System (ABS) action on the slippery road, as well as the case of ABS action on the icy road. Test results show that the presented vehicle speed estimation algorithm has not only a high precision but also a strong adaptability in the composite braking case.

An implicit adaptation algorithm for a linear model reference control system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mabius, L.; Kaufman, H.

1975-01-01

This paper presents a stable implicit adaptation algorithm for model reference control. The constraints for stability are found using Lyapunov's second method and do not depend on perfect model following between the system and the reference model. Methods are proposed for satisfying these constraints without estimating the parameters on which the constraints depend.

The use of climate information to estimate future mortality from high ambient temperature: A systematic literature review.

PubMed

Sanderson, Michael; Arbuthnott, Katherine; Kovats, Sari; Hajat, Shakoor; Falloon, Pete

2017-01-01

Heat related mortality is of great concern for public health, and estimates of future mortality under a warming climate are important for planning of resources and possible adaptation measures. Papers providing projections of future heat-related mortality were critically reviewed with a focus on the use of climate model data. Some best practice guidelines are proposed for future research. The electronic databases Web of Science and PubMed/Medline were searched for papers containing a quantitative estimate of future heat-related mortality. The search was limited to papers published in English in peer-reviewed journals up to the end of March 2017. Reference lists of relevant papers and the citing literature were also examined. The wide range of locations studied and climate data used prevented a meta-analysis. A total of 608 articles were identified after removal of duplicate entries, of which 63 were found to contain a quantitative estimate of future mortality from hot days or heat waves. A wide range of mortality models and climate model data have been used to estimate future mortality. Temperatures in the climate simulations used in these studies were projected to increase. Consequently, all the papers indicated that mortality from high temperatures would increase under a warming climate. The spread in projections of future climate by models adds substantial uncertainty to estimates of future heat-related mortality. However, many studies either did not consider this source of uncertainty, or only used results from a small number of climate models. Other studies showed that uncertainty from changes in populations and demographics, and the methods for adaptation to warmer temperatures were at least as important as climate model uncertainty. Some inconsistencies in the use of climate data (for example, using global mean temperature changes instead of changes for specific locations) and interpretation of the effects on mortality were apparent. Some factors which have not been considered when estimating future mortality are summarised. Most studies have used climate data generated using scenarios with medium and high emissions of greenhouse gases. More estimates of future mortality using climate information from the mitigation scenario RCP2.6 are needed, as this scenario is the only one under which the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 2°C or less could be realised. Many of the methods used to combine modelled data with local climate observations are simplistic. Quantile-based methods might offer an improved approach, especially for temperatures at the ends of the distributions. The modelling of adaptation to warmer temperatures in mortality models is generally arbitrary and simplistic, and more research is needed to better quantify adaptation. Only a small number of studies included possible changes in population and demographics in their estimates of future mortality, meaning many estimates of mortality could be biased low. Uncertainty originating from establishing a mortality baseline, climate projections, adaptation and population changes is important and should be considered when estimating future mortality.

Multi-Sensor Optimal Data Fusion Based on the Adaptive Fading Unscented Kalman Filter

PubMed Central

Gao, Bingbing; Hu, Gaoge; Gao, Shesheng; Gu, Chengfan

2018-01-01

This paper presents a new optimal data fusion methodology based on the adaptive fading unscented Kalman filter for multi-sensor nonlinear stochastic systems. This methodology has a two-level fusion structure: at the bottom level, an adaptive fading unscented Kalman filter based on the Mahalanobis distance is developed and serves as local filters to improve the adaptability and robustness of local state estimations against process-modeling error; at the top level, an unscented transformation-based multi-sensor optimal data fusion for the case of N local filters is established according to the principle of linear minimum variance to calculate globally optimal state estimation by fusion of local estimations. The proposed methodology effectively refrains from the influence of process-modeling error on the fusion solution, leading to improved adaptability and robustness of data fusion for multi-sensor nonlinear stochastic systems. It also achieves globally optimal fusion results based on the principle of linear minimum variance. Simulation and experimental results demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed methodology for INS/GNSS/CNS (inertial navigation system/global navigation satellite system/celestial navigation system) integrated navigation. PMID:29415509

Multi-Sensor Optimal Data Fusion Based on the Adaptive Fading Unscented Kalman Filter.

PubMed

Gao, Bingbing; Hu, Gaoge; Gao, Shesheng; Zhong, Yongmin; Gu, Chengfan

2018-02-06

This paper presents a new optimal data fusion methodology based on the adaptive fading unscented Kalman filter for multi-sensor nonlinear stochastic systems. This methodology has a two-level fusion structure: at the bottom level, an adaptive fading unscented Kalman filter based on the Mahalanobis distance is developed and serves as local filters to improve the adaptability and robustness of local state estimations against process-modeling error; at the top level, an unscented transformation-based multi-sensor optimal data fusion for the case of N local filters is established according to the principle of linear minimum variance to calculate globally optimal state estimation by fusion of local estimations. The proposed methodology effectively refrains from the influence of process-modeling error on the fusion solution, leading to improved adaptability and robustness of data fusion for multi-sensor nonlinear stochastic systems. It also achieves globally optimal fusion results based on the principle of linear minimum variance. Simulation and experimental results demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed methodology for INS/GNSS/CNS (inertial navigation system/global navigation satellite system/celestial navigation system) integrated navigation.

An adaptive control scheme for a flexible manipulator

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yang, T. C.; Yang, J. C. S.; Kudva, P.

1987-01-01

The problem of controlling a single link flexible manipulator is considered. A self-tuning adaptive control scheme is proposed which consists of a least squares on-line parameter identification of an equivalent linear model followed by a tuning of the gains of a pole placement controller using the parameter estimates. Since the initial parameter values for this model are assumed unknown, the use of arbitrarily chosen initial parameter estimates in the adaptive controller would result in undesirable transient effects. Hence, the initial stage control is carried out with a PID controller. Once the identified parameters have converged, control is transferred to the adaptive controller. Naturally, the relevant issues in this scheme are tests for parameter convergence and minimization of overshoots during control switch-over. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed scheme, simulation results are presented with an analytical nonlinear dynamic model of a single link flexible manipulator.

An adaptive Gaussian process-based method for efficient Bayesian experimental design in groundwater contaminant source identification problems: ADAPTIVE GAUSSIAN PROCESS-BASED INVERSION

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Jiangjiang; Li, Weixuan; Zeng, Lingzao

Surrogate models are commonly used in Bayesian approaches such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to avoid repetitive CPU-demanding model evaluations. However, the approximation error of a surrogate may lead to biased estimations of the posterior distribution. This bias can be corrected by constructing a very accurate surrogate or implementing MCMC in a two-stage manner. Since the two-stage MCMC requires extra original model evaluations, the computational cost is still high. If the information of measurement is incorporated, a locally accurate approximation of the original model can be adaptively constructed with low computational cost. Based on this idea, we propose amore » Gaussian process (GP) surrogate-based Bayesian experimental design and parameter estimation approach for groundwater contaminant source identification problems. A major advantage of the GP surrogate is that it provides a convenient estimation of the approximation error, which can be incorporated in the Bayesian formula to avoid over-confident estimation of the posterior distribution. The proposed approach is tested with a numerical case study. Without sacrificing the estimation accuracy, the new approach achieves about 200 times of speed-up compared to our previous work using two-stage MCMC.« less

Estimating Reservoir Inflow Using RADAR Forecasted Precipitation and Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yi, J.; Choi, C.

2014-12-01

Rainfall observation and forecasting using remote sensing such as RADAR(Radio Detection and Ranging) and satellite images are widely used to delineate the increased damage by rapid weather changeslike regional storm and flash flood. The flood runoff was calculated by using adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system, the data driven models and MAPLE(McGill Algorithm for Precipitation Nowcasting by Lagrangian Extrapolation) forecasted precipitation data as the input variables.The result of flood estimation method using neuro-fuzzy technique and RADAR forecasted precipitation data was evaluated by comparing it with the actual data.The Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy method was applied to the Chungju Reservoir basin in Korea. The six rainfall events during the flood seasons in 2010 and 2011 were used for the input data.The reservoir inflow estimation results were comparedaccording to the rainfall data used for training, checking and testing data in the model setup process. The results of the 15 models with the combination of the input variables were compared and analyzed. Using the relatively larger clustering radius and the biggest flood ever happened for training data showed the better flood estimation in this study.The model using the MAPLE forecasted precipitation data showed better result for inflow estimation in the Chungju Reservoir.

Application of Bayesian techniques to model the burden of human salmonellosis attributable to U.S. food commodities at the point of processing: adaptation of a Danish model.

PubMed

Guo, Chuanfa; Hoekstra, Robert M; Schroeder, Carl M; Pires, Sara Monteiro; Ong, Kanyin Liane; Hartnett, Emma; Naugle, Alecia; Harman, Jane; Bennett, Patricia; Cieslak, Paul; Scallan, Elaine; Rose, Bonnie; Holt, Kristin G; Kissler, Bonnie; Mbandi, Evelyne; Roodsari, Reza; Angulo, Frederick J; Cole, Dana

2011-04-01

Mathematical models that estimate the proportion of foodborne illnesses attributable to food commodities at specific points in the food chain may be useful to risk managers and policy makers to formulate public health goals, prioritize interventions, and document the effectiveness of mitigations aimed at reducing illness. Using human surveillance data on laboratory-confirmed Salmonella infections from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and Salmonella testing data from U.S. Department of Agriculture Food Safety and Inspection Service's regulatory programs, we developed a point-of-processing foodborne illness attribution model by adapting the Hald Salmonella Bayesian source attribution model. Key model outputs include estimates of the relative proportions of domestically acquired sporadic human Salmonella infections resulting from contamination of raw meat, poultry, and egg products processed in the United States from 1998 through 2003. The current model estimates the relative contribution of chicken (48%), ground beef (28%), turkey (17%), egg products (6%), intact beef (1%), and pork (<1%) across 109 Salmonella serotypes found in food commodities at point of processing. While interpretation of the attribution estimates is constrained by data inputs, the adapted model shows promise and may serve as a basis for a common approach to attribution of human salmonellosis and food safety decision-making in more than one country. © Mary Ann Liebert, Inc.

Application of Bayesian Techniques to Model the Burden of Human Salmonellosis Attributable to U.S. Food Commodities at the Point of Processing: Adaptation of a Danish Model

PubMed Central

Guo, Chuanfa; Hoekstra, Robert M.; Schroeder, Carl M.; Pires, Sara Monteiro; Ong, Kanyin Liane; Hartnett, Emma; Naugle, Alecia; Harman, Jane; Bennett, Patricia; Cieslak, Paul; Scallan, Elaine; Rose, Bonnie; Holt, Kristin G.; Kissler, Bonnie; Mbandi, Evelyne; Roodsari, Reza; Angulo, Frederick J.

2011-01-01

Abstract Mathematical models that estimate the proportion of foodborne illnesses attributable to food commodities at specific points in the food chain may be useful to risk managers and policy makers to formulate public health goals, prioritize interventions, and document the effectiveness of mitigations aimed at reducing illness. Using human surveillance data on laboratory-confirmed Salmonella infections from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and Salmonella testing data from U.S. Department of Agriculture Food Safety and Inspection Service's regulatory programs, we developed a point-of-processing foodborne illness attribution model by adapting the Hald Salmonella Bayesian source attribution model. Key model outputs include estimates of the relative proportions of domestically acquired sporadic human Salmonella infections resulting from contamination of raw meat, poultry, and egg products processed in the United States from 1998 through 2003. The current model estimates the relative contribution of chicken (48%), ground beef (28%), turkey (17%), egg products (6%), intact beef (1%), and pork (<1%) across 109 Salmonella serotypes found in food commodities at point of processing. While interpretation of the attribution estimates is constrained by data inputs, the adapted model shows promise and may serve as a basis for a common approach to attribution of human salmonellosis and food safety decision-making in more than one country. PMID:21235394

Adaptive control of Parkinson's state based on a nonlinear computational model with unknown parameters.

PubMed

Su, Fei; Wang, Jiang; Deng, Bin; Wei, Xi-Le; Chen, Ying-Yuan; Liu, Chen; Li, Hui-Yan

2015-02-01

The objective here is to explore the use of adaptive input-output feedback linearization method to achieve an improved deep brain stimulation (DBS) algorithm for closed-loop control of Parkinson's state. The control law is based on a highly nonlinear computational model of Parkinson's disease (PD) with unknown parameters. The restoration of thalamic relay reliability is formulated as the desired outcome of the adaptive control methodology, and the DBS waveform is the control input. The control input is adjusted in real time according to estimates of unknown parameters as well as the feedback signal. Simulation results show that the proposed adaptive control algorithm succeeds in restoring the relay reliability of the thalamus, and at the same time achieves accurate estimation of unknown parameters. Our findings point to the potential value of adaptive control approach that could be used to regulate DBS waveform in more effective treatment of PD.

Adaptation of an articulated fetal skeleton model to three-dimensional fetal image data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klinder, Tobias; Wendland, Hannes; Wachter-Stehle, Irina; Roundhill, David; Lorenz, Cristian

2015-03-01

The automatic interpretation of three-dimensional fetal images poses specific challenges compared to other three-dimensional diagnostic data, especially since the orientation of the fetus in the uterus and the position of the extremities is highly variable. In this paper, we present a comprehensive articulated model of the fetal skeleton and the adaptation of the articulation for pose estimation in three-dimensional fetal images. The model is composed out of rigid bodies where the articulations are represented as rigid body transformations. Given a set of target landmarks, the model constellation can be estimated by optimization of the pose parameters. Experiments are carried out on 3D fetal MRI data yielding an average error per case of 12.03+/-3.36 mm between target and estimated landmark positions.

REVIEW: Internal models in sensorimotor integration: perspectives from adaptive control theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tin, Chung; Poon, Chi-Sang

2005-09-01

Internal models and adaptive controls are empirical and mathematical paradigms that have evolved separately to describe learning control processes in brain systems and engineering systems, respectively. This paper presents a comprehensive appraisal of the correlation between these paradigms with a view to forging a unified theoretical framework that may benefit both disciplines. It is suggested that the classic equilibrium-point theory of impedance control of arm movement is analogous to continuous gain-scheduling or high-gain adaptive control within or across movement trials, respectively, and that the recently proposed inverse internal model is akin to adaptive sliding control originally for robotic manipulator applications. Modular internal models' architecture for multiple motor tasks is a form of multi-model adaptive control. Stochastic methods, such as generalized predictive control, reinforcement learning, Bayesian learning and Hebbian feedback covariance learning, are reviewed and their possible relevance to motor control is discussed. Possible applicability of a Luenberger observer and an extended Kalman filter to state estimation problems—such as sensorimotor prediction or the resolution of vestibular sensory ambiguity—is also discussed. The important role played by vestibular system identification in postural control suggests an indirect adaptive control scheme whereby system states or parameters are explicitly estimated prior to the implementation of control. This interdisciplinary framework should facilitate the experimental elucidation of the mechanisms of internal models in sensorimotor systems and the reverse engineering of such neural mechanisms into novel brain-inspired adaptive control paradigms in future.

Predicting Loss-of-Control Boundaries Toward a Piloting Aid

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barlow, Jonathan; Stepanyan, Vahram; Krishnakumar, Kalmanje

2012-01-01

This work presents an approach to predicting loss-of-control with the goal of providing the pilot a decision aid focused on maintaining the pilot's control action within predicted loss-of-control boundaries. The predictive architecture combines quantitative loss-of-control boundaries, a data-based predictive control boundary estimation algorithm and an adaptive prediction method to estimate Markov model parameters in real-time. The data-based loss-of-control boundary estimation algorithm estimates the boundary of a safe set of control inputs that will keep the aircraft within the loss-of-control boundaries for a specified time horizon. The adaptive prediction model generates estimates of the system Markov Parameters, which are used by the data-based loss-of-control boundary estimation algorithm. The combined algorithm is applied to a nonlinear generic transport aircraft to illustrate the features of the architecture.

Comparison of smoothing methods for the development of a smoothed seismicity model for Alaska and the implications for seismic hazard

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moschetti, M. P.; Mueller, C. S.; Boyd, O. S.; Petersen, M. D.

2013-12-01

In anticipation of the update of the Alaska seismic hazard maps (ASHMs) by the U. S. Geological Survey, we report progress on the comparison of smoothed seismicity models developed using fixed and adaptive smoothing algorithms, and investigate the sensitivity of seismic hazard to the models. While fault-based sources, such as those for great earthquakes in the Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone and for the ~10 shallow crustal faults within Alaska, dominate the seismic hazard estimates for locations near to the sources, smoothed seismicity rates make important contributions to seismic hazard away from fault-based sources and where knowledge of recurrence and magnitude is not sufficient for use in hazard studies. Recent developments in adaptive smoothing methods and statistical tests for evaluating and comparing rate models prompt us to investigate the appropriateness of adaptive smoothing for the ASHMs. We develop smoothed seismicity models for Alaska using fixed and adaptive smoothing methods and compare the resulting models by calculating and evaluating the joint likelihood test. We use the earthquake catalog, and associated completeness levels, developed for the 2007 ASHM to produce fixed-bandwidth-smoothed models with smoothing distances varying from 10 to 100 km and adaptively smoothed models. Adaptive smoothing follows the method of Helmstetter et al. and defines a unique smoothing distance for each earthquake epicenter from the distance to the nth nearest neighbor. The consequence of the adaptive smoothing methods is to reduce smoothing distances, causing locally increased seismicity rates, where seismicity rates are high and to increase smoothing distances where seismicity is sparse. We follow guidance from previous studies to optimize the neighbor number (n-value) by comparing model likelihood values, which estimate the likelihood that the observed earthquake epicenters from the recent catalog are derived from the smoothed rate models. We compare likelihood values from all rate models to rank the smoothing methods. We find that adaptively smoothed seismicity models yield better likelihood values than the fixed smoothing models. Holding all other (source and ground motion) models constant, we calculate seismic hazard curves for all points across Alaska on a 0.1 degree grid, using the adaptively smoothed and fixed smoothed seismicity models separately. Because adaptively smoothed models concentrate seismicity near the earthquake epicenters where seismicity rates are high, the corresponding hazard values are higher, locally, but reduced with distance from observed seismicity, relative to the hazard from fixed-bandwidth models. We suggest that adaptively smoothed seismicity models be considered for implementation in the update to the ASHMs because of their improved likelihood estimates relative to fixed smoothing methods; however, concomitant increases in seismic hazard will cause significant changes in regions of high seismicity, such as near the subduction zone, northeast of Kotzebue, and along the NNE trending zone of seismicity in the Alaskan interior.

Comparison of smoothing methods for the development of a smoothed seismicity model for Alaska and the implications for seismic hazard

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moschetti, Morgan P.; Mueller, Charles S.; Boyd, Oliver S.; Petersen, Mark D.

2014-01-01

In anticipation of the update of the Alaska seismic hazard maps (ASHMs) by the U. S. Geological Survey, we report progress on the comparison of smoothed seismicity models developed using fixed and adaptive smoothing algorithms, and investigate the sensitivity of seismic hazard to the models. While fault-based sources, such as those for great earthquakes in the Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone and for the ~10 shallow crustal faults within Alaska, dominate the seismic hazard estimates for locations near to the sources, smoothed seismicity rates make important contributions to seismic hazard away from fault-based sources and where knowledge of recurrence and magnitude is not sufficient for use in hazard studies. Recent developments in adaptive smoothing methods and statistical tests for evaluating and comparing rate models prompt us to investigate the appropriateness of adaptive smoothing for the ASHMs. We develop smoothed seismicity models for Alaska using fixed and adaptive smoothing methods and compare the resulting models by calculating and evaluating the joint likelihood test. We use the earthquake catalog, and associated completeness levels, developed for the 2007 ASHM to produce fixed-bandwidth-smoothed models with smoothing distances varying from 10 to 100 km and adaptively smoothed models. Adaptive smoothing follows the method of Helmstetter et al. and defines a unique smoothing distance for each earthquake epicenter from the distance to the nth nearest neighbor. The consequence of the adaptive smoothing methods is to reduce smoothing distances, causing locally increased seismicity rates, where seismicity rates are high and to increase smoothing distances where seismicity is sparse. We follow guidance from previous studies to optimize the neighbor number (n-value) by comparing model likelihood values, which estimate the likelihood that the observed earthquake epicenters from the recent catalog are derived from the smoothed rate models. We compare likelihood values from all rate models to rank the smoothing methods. We find that adaptively smoothed seismicity models yield better likelihood values than the fixed smoothing models. Holding all other (source and ground motion) models constant, we calculate seismic hazard curves for all points across Alaska on a 0.1 degree grid, using the adaptively smoothed and fixed smoothed seismicity models separately. Because adaptively smoothed models concentrate seismicity near the earthquake epicenters where seismicity rates are high, the corresponding hazard values are higher, locally, but reduced with distance from observed seismicity, relative to the hazard from fixed-bandwidth models. We suggest that adaptively smoothed seismicity models be considered for implementation in the update to the ASHMs because of their improved likelihood estimates relative to fixed smoothing methods; however, concomitant increases in seismic hazard will cause significant changes in regions of high seismicity, such as near the subduction zone, northeast of Kotzebue, and along the NNE trending zone of seismicity in the Alaskan interior.

Introduction to State Estimation of High-Rate System Dynamics.

PubMed

Hong, Jonathan; Laflamme, Simon; Dodson, Jacob; Joyce, Bryan

2018-01-13

Engineering systems experiencing high-rate dynamic events, including airbags, debris detection, and active blast protection systems, could benefit from real-time observability for enhanced performance. However, the task of high-rate state estimation is challenging, in particular for real-time applications where the rate of the observer's convergence needs to be in the microsecond range. This paper identifies the challenges of state estimation of high-rate systems and discusses the fundamental characteristics of high-rate systems. A survey of applications and methods for estimators that have the potential to produce accurate estimations for a complex system experiencing highly dynamic events is presented. It is argued that adaptive observers are important to this research. In particular, adaptive data-driven observers are advantageous due to their adaptability and lack of dependence on the system model.

Adaptive optimal stochastic state feedback control of resistive wall modes in tokamaks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Z.; Sen, A. K.; Longman, R. W.

2006-01-01

An adaptive optimal stochastic state feedback control is developed to stabilize the resistive wall mode (RWM) instability in tokamaks. The extended least-square method with exponential forgetting factor and covariance resetting is used to identify (experimentally determine) the time-varying stochastic system model. A Kalman filter is used to estimate the system states. The estimated system states are passed on to an optimal state feedback controller to construct control inputs. The Kalman filter and the optimal state feedback controller are periodically redesigned online based on the identified system model. This adaptive controller can stabilize the time-dependent RWM in a slowly evolving tokamak discharge. This is accomplished within a time delay of roughly four times the inverse of the growth rate for the time-invariant model used.

Adaptive Optimal Stochastic State Feedback Control of Resistive Wall Modes in Tokamaks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Z.; Sen, A. K.; Longman, R. W.

2007-06-01

An adaptive optimal stochastic state feedback control is developed to stabilize the resistive wall mode (RWM) instability in tokamaks. The extended least square method with exponential forgetting factor and covariance resetting is used to identify the time-varying stochastic system model. A Kalman filter is used to estimate the system states. The estimated system states are passed on to an optimal state feedback controller to construct control inputs. The Kalman filter and the optimal state feedback controller are periodically redesigned online based on the identified system model. This adaptive controller can stabilize the time dependent RWM in a slowly evolving tokamak discharge. This is accomplished within a time delay of roughly four times the inverse of the growth rate for the time-invariant model used.

MULTISCALE ADAPTIVE SMOOTHING MODELS FOR THE HEMODYNAMIC RESPONSE FUNCTION IN FMRI*

PubMed Central

Wang, Jiaping; Zhu, Hongtu; Fan, Jianqing; Giovanello, Kelly; Lin, Weili

2012-01-01

In the event-related functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data analysis, there is an extensive interest in accurately and robustly estimating the hemodynamic response function (HRF) and its associated statistics (e.g., the magnitude and duration of the activation). Most methods to date are developed in the time domain and they have utilized almost exclusively the temporal information of fMRI data without accounting for the spatial information. The aim of this paper is to develop a multiscale adaptive smoothing model (MASM) in the frequency domain by integrating the spatial and temporal information to adaptively and accurately estimate HRFs pertaining to each stimulus sequence across all voxels in a three-dimensional (3D) volume. We use two sets of simulation studies and a real data set to examine the finite sample performance of MASM in estimating HRFs. Our real and simulated data analyses confirm that MASM outperforms several other state-of-art methods, such as the smooth finite impulse response (sFIR) model. PMID:24533041

Modern control concepts in hydrology. [parameter identification in adaptive stochastic control approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Duong, N.; Winn, C. B.; Johnson, G. R.

1975-01-01

Two approaches to an identification problem in hydrology are presented, based upon concepts from modern control and estimation theory. The first approach treats the identification of unknown parameters in a hydrologic system subject to noisy inputs as an adaptive linear stochastic control problem; the second approach alters the model equation to account for the random part in the inputs, and then uses a nonlinear estimation scheme to estimate the unknown parameters. Both approaches use state-space concepts. The identification schemes are sequential and adaptive and can handle either time-invariant or time-dependent parameters. They are used to identify parameters in the Prasad model of rainfall-runoff. The results obtained are encouraging and confirm the results from two previous studies; the first using numerical integration of the model equation along with a trial-and-error procedure, and the second using a quasi-linearization technique. The proposed approaches offer a systematic way of analyzing the rainfall-runoff process when the input data are imbedded in noise.

Biological adaptive control model: a mechanical analogue of multi-factorial bone density adaptation.

PubMed

Davidson, Peter L; Milburn, Peter D; Wilson, Barry D

2004-03-21

The mechanism of how bone adapts to every day demands needs to be better understood to gain insight into situations in which the musculoskeletal system is perturbed. This paper offers a novel multi-factorial mathematical model of bone density adaptation which combines previous single-factor models in a single adaptation system as a means of gaining this insight. Unique aspects of the model include provision for interaction between factors and an estimation of the relative contribution of each factor. This interacting system is considered analogous to a Newtonian mechanical system and the governing response equation is derived as a linear version of the adaptation process. The transient solution to sudden environmental change is found to be exponential or oscillatory depending on the balance between cellular activation and deactivation frequencies.

Estimating multilevel logistic regression models when the number of clusters is low: a comparison of different statistical software procedures.

PubMed

Austin, Peter C

2010-04-22

Multilevel logistic regression models are increasingly being used to analyze clustered data in medical, public health, epidemiological, and educational research. Procedures for estimating the parameters of such models are available in many statistical software packages. There is currently little evidence on the minimum number of clusters necessary to reliably fit multilevel regression models. We conducted a Monte Carlo study to compare the performance of different statistical software procedures for estimating multilevel logistic regression models when the number of clusters was low. We examined procedures available in BUGS, HLM, R, SAS, and Stata. We found that there were qualitative differences in the performance of different software procedures for estimating multilevel logistic models when the number of clusters was low. Among the likelihood-based procedures, estimation methods based on adaptive Gauss-Hermite approximations to the likelihood (glmer in R and xtlogit in Stata) or adaptive Gaussian quadrature (Proc NLMIXED in SAS) tended to have superior performance for estimating variance components when the number of clusters was small, compared to software procedures based on penalized quasi-likelihood. However, only Bayesian estimation with BUGS allowed for accurate estimation of variance components when there were fewer than 10 clusters. For all statistical software procedures, estimation of variance components tended to be poor when there were only five subjects per cluster, regardless of the number of clusters.

Validity of an adaptation of the Framingham cardiovascular risk function: the VERIFICA study

PubMed Central

Marrugat, Jaume; Subirana, Isaac; Comín, Eva; Cabezas, Carmen; Vila, Joan; Elosua, Roberto; Nam, Byung‐Ho; Ramos, Rafel; Sala, Joan; Solanas, Pascual; Cordón, Ferran; Gené‐Badia, Joan; D'Agostino, Ralph B

2007-01-01

Background To assess the reliability and accuracy of the Framingham coronary heart disease (CHD) risk function adapted by the Registre Gironí del Cor (REGICOR) investigators in Spain. Methods A 5‐year follow‐up study was completed in 5732 participants aged 35–74 years. The adaptation consisted of using in the function the average population risk factor prevalence and the cumulative incidence observed in Spain instead of those from Framingham in a Cox proportional hazards model. Reliability and accuracy in estimating the observed cumulative incidence were tested with the area under the curve comparison and goodness‐of‐fit test, respectively. Results The Kaplan–Meier CHD cumulative incidence during the follow‐up was 4.0% in men and 1.7% in women. The original Framingham function and the REGICOR adapted estimates were 10.4% and 4.8%, and 3.6% and 2.0%, respectively. The REGICOR‐adapted function's estimate did not differ from the observed cumulated incidence (goodness of fit in men, p = 0.078, in women, p = 0.256), whereas all the original Framingham function estimates differed significantly (p<0.001). Reliabilities of the original Framingham function and of the best Cox model fit with the study data were similar in men (area under the receiver operator characteristic curve 0.68 and 0.69, respectively, p = 0.273), whereas the best Cox model fitted better in women (0.73 and 0.81, respectively, p<0.001). Conclusion The Framingham function adapted to local population characteristics accurately and reliably predicted the 5‐year CHD risk for patients aged 35–74 years, in contrast with the original function, which consistently overestimated the actual risk. PMID:17183014

A new anisotropic mesh adaptation method based upon hierarchical a posteriori error estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Weizhang; Kamenski, Lennard; Lang, Jens

2010-03-01

A new anisotropic mesh adaptation strategy for finite element solution of elliptic differential equations is presented. It generates anisotropic adaptive meshes as quasi-uniform ones in some metric space, with the metric tensor being computed based on hierarchical a posteriori error estimates. A global hierarchical error estimate is employed in this study to obtain reliable directional information of the solution. Instead of solving the global error problem exactly, which is costly in general, we solve it iteratively using the symmetric Gauß-Seidel method. Numerical results show that a few GS iterations are sufficient for obtaining a reasonably good approximation to the error for use in anisotropic mesh adaptation. The new method is compared with several strategies using local error estimators or recovered Hessians. Numerical results are presented for a selection of test examples and a mathematical model for heat conduction in a thermal battery with large orthotropic jumps in the material coefficients.

Effects of Calibration Sample Size and Item Bank Size on Ability Estimation in Computerized Adaptive Testing

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sahin, Alper; Weiss, David J.

2015-01-01

This study aimed to investigate the effects of calibration sample size and item bank size on examinee ability estimation in computerized adaptive testing (CAT). For this purpose, a 500-item bank pre-calibrated using the three-parameter logistic model with 10,000 examinees was simulated. Calibration samples of varying sizes (150, 250, 350, 500,…

Standard and reduced radiation dose liver CT images: adaptive statistical iterative reconstruction versus model-based iterative reconstruction-comparison of findings and image quality.

PubMed

Shuman, William P; Chan, Keith T; Busey, Janet M; Mitsumori, Lee M; Choi, Eunice; Koprowicz, Kent M; Kanal, Kalpana M

2014-12-01

To investigate whether reduced radiation dose liver computed tomography (CT) images reconstructed with model-based iterative reconstruction ( MBIR model-based iterative reconstruction ) might compromise depiction of clinically relevant findings or might have decreased image quality when compared with clinical standard radiation dose CT images reconstructed with adaptive statistical iterative reconstruction ( ASIR adaptive statistical iterative reconstruction ). With institutional review board approval, informed consent, and HIPAA compliance, 50 patients (39 men, 11 women) were prospectively included who underwent liver CT. After a portal venous pass with ASIR adaptive statistical iterative reconstruction images, a 60% reduced radiation dose pass was added with MBIR model-based iterative reconstruction images. One reviewer scored ASIR adaptive statistical iterative reconstruction image quality and marked findings. Two additional independent reviewers noted whether marked findings were present on MBIR model-based iterative reconstruction images and assigned scores for relative conspicuity, spatial resolution, image noise, and image quality. Liver and aorta Hounsfield units and image noise were measured. Volume CT dose index and size-specific dose estimate ( SSDE size-specific dose estimate ) were recorded. Qualitative reviewer scores were summarized. Formal statistical inference for signal-to-noise ratio ( SNR signal-to-noise ratio ), contrast-to-noise ratio ( CNR contrast-to-noise ratio ), volume CT dose index, and SSDE size-specific dose estimate was made (paired t tests), with Bonferroni adjustment. Two independent reviewers identified all 136 ASIR adaptive statistical iterative reconstruction image findings (n = 272) on MBIR model-based iterative reconstruction images, scoring them as equal or better for conspicuity, spatial resolution, and image noise in 94.1% (256 of 272), 96.7% (263 of 272), and 99.3% (270 of 272), respectively. In 50 image sets, two reviewers (n = 100) scored overall image quality as sufficient or good with MBIR model-based iterative reconstruction in 99% (99 of 100). Liver SNR signal-to-noise ratio was significantly greater for MBIR model-based iterative reconstruction (10.8 ± 2.5 [standard deviation] vs 7.7 ± 1.4, P < .001); there was no difference for CNR contrast-to-noise ratio (2.5 ± 1.4 vs 2.4 ± 1.4, P = .45). For ASIR adaptive statistical iterative reconstruction and MBIR model-based iterative reconstruction , respectively, volume CT dose index was 15.2 mGy ± 7.6 versus 6.2 mGy ± 3.6; SSDE size-specific dose estimate was 16.4 mGy ± 6.6 versus 6.7 mGy ± 3.1 (P < .001). Liver CT images reconstructed with MBIR model-based iterative reconstruction may allow up to 59% radiation dose reduction compared with the dose with ASIR adaptive statistical iterative reconstruction , without compromising depiction of findings or image quality. © RSNA, 2014.

Entropy-based adaptive attitude estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kiani, Maryam; Barzegar, Aylin; Pourtakdoust, Seid H.

2018-03-01

Gaussian approximation filters have increasingly been developed to enhance the accuracy of attitude estimation in space missions. The effective employment of these algorithms demands accurate knowledge of system dynamics and measurement models, as well as their noise characteristics, which are usually unavailable or unreliable. An innovation-based adaptive filtering approach has been adopted as a solution to this problem; however, it exhibits two major challenges, namely appropriate window size selection and guaranteed assurance of positive definiteness for the estimated noise covariance matrices. The current work presents two novel techniques based on relative entropy and confidence level concepts in order to address the abovementioned drawbacks. The proposed adaptation techniques are applied to two nonlinear state estimation algorithms of the extended Kalman filter and cubature Kalman filter for attitude estimation of a low earth orbit satellite equipped with three-axis magnetometers and Sun sensors. The effectiveness of the proposed adaptation scheme is demonstrated by means of comprehensive sensitivity analysis on the system and environmental parameters by using extensive independent Monte Carlo simulations.

The use of climate information to estimate future mortality from high ambient temperature: A systematic literature review

PubMed Central

Arbuthnott, Katherine; Kovats, Sari; Hajat, Shakoor; Falloon, Pete

2017-01-01

Background and objectives Heat related mortality is of great concern for public health, and estimates of future mortality under a warming climate are important for planning of resources and possible adaptation measures. Papers providing projections of future heat-related mortality were critically reviewed with a focus on the use of climate model data. Some best practice guidelines are proposed for future research. Methods The electronic databases Web of Science and PubMed/Medline were searched for papers containing a quantitative estimate of future heat-related mortality. The search was limited to papers published in English in peer-reviewed journals up to the end of March 2017. Reference lists of relevant papers and the citing literature were also examined. The wide range of locations studied and climate data used prevented a meta-analysis. Results A total of 608 articles were identified after removal of duplicate entries, of which 63 were found to contain a quantitative estimate of future mortality from hot days or heat waves. A wide range of mortality models and climate model data have been used to estimate future mortality. Temperatures in the climate simulations used in these studies were projected to increase. Consequently, all the papers indicated that mortality from high temperatures would increase under a warming climate. The spread in projections of future climate by models adds substantial uncertainty to estimates of future heat-related mortality. However, many studies either did not consider this source of uncertainty, or only used results from a small number of climate models. Other studies showed that uncertainty from changes in populations and demographics, and the methods for adaptation to warmer temperatures were at least as important as climate model uncertainty. Some inconsistencies in the use of climate data (for example, using global mean temperature changes instead of changes for specific locations) and interpretation of the effects on mortality were apparent. Some factors which have not been considered when estimating future mortality are summarised. Conclusions Most studies have used climate data generated using scenarios with medium and high emissions of greenhouse gases. More estimates of future mortality using climate information from the mitigation scenario RCP2.6 are needed, as this scenario is the only one under which the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 2°C or less could be realised. Many of the methods used to combine modelled data with local climate observations are simplistic. Quantile-based methods might offer an improved approach, especially for temperatures at the ends of the distributions. The modelling of adaptation to warmer temperatures in mortality models is generally arbitrary and simplistic, and more research is needed to better quantify adaptation. Only a small number of studies included possible changes in population and demographics in their estimates of future mortality, meaning many estimates of mortality could be biased low. Uncertainty originating from establishing a mortality baseline, climate projections, adaptation and population changes is important and should be considered when estimating future mortality. PMID:28686743

Estimation of key parameters in adaptive neuron model according to firing patterns based on improved particle swarm optimization algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Chunhua; Wang, Jiang; Yi, Guosheng

2017-03-01

Estimation of ion channel parameters is crucial to spike initiation of neurons. The biophysical neuron models have numerous ion channel parameters, but only a few of them play key roles in the firing patterns of the models. So we choose three parameters featuring the adaptation in the Ermentrout neuron model to be estimated. However, the traditional particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm is still easy to fall into local optimum and has the premature convergence phenomenon in the study of some problems. In this paper, we propose an improved method that uses a concave function and dynamic logistic chaotic mapping mixed to adjust the inertia weights of the fitness value, effectively improve the global convergence ability of the algorithm. The perfect predicting firing trajectories of the rebuilt model using the estimated parameters prove that only estimating a few important ion channel parameters can establish the model well and the proposed algorithm is effective. Estimations using two classic PSO algorithms are also compared to the improved PSO to verify that the algorithm proposed in this paper can avoid local optimum and quickly converge to the optimal value. The results provide important theoretical foundations for building biologically realistic neuron models.

An analysis of neural receptive field plasticity by point process adaptive filtering

PubMed Central

Brown, Emery N.; Nguyen, David P.; Frank, Loren M.; Wilson, Matthew A.; Solo, Victor

2001-01-01

Neural receptive fields are plastic: with experience, neurons in many brain regions change their spiking responses to relevant stimuli. Analysis of receptive field plasticity from experimental measurements is crucial for understanding how neural systems adapt their representations of relevant biological information. Current analysis methods using histogram estimates of spike rate functions in nonoverlapping temporal windows do not track the evolution of receptive field plasticity on a fine time scale. Adaptive signal processing is an established engineering paradigm for estimating time-varying system parameters from experimental measurements. We present an adaptive filter algorithm for tracking neural receptive field plasticity based on point process models of spike train activity. We derive an instantaneous steepest descent algorithm by using as the criterion function the instantaneous log likelihood of a point process spike train model. We apply the point process adaptive filter algorithm in a study of spatial (place) receptive field properties of simulated and actual spike train data from rat CA1 hippocampal neurons. A stability analysis of the algorithm is sketched in the Appendix. The adaptive algorithm can update the place field parameter estimates on a millisecond time scale. It reliably tracked the migration, changes in scale, and changes in maximum firing rate characteristic of hippocampal place fields in a rat running on a linear track. Point process adaptive filtering offers an analytic method for studying the dynamics of neural receptive fields. PMID:11593043

On-board adaptive model for state of charge estimation of lithium-ion batteries based on Kalman filter with proportional integral-based error adjustment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Jingwen; Dong, Guangzhong; Chen, Zonghai

2017-10-01

With the rapid development of battery-powered electric vehicles, the lithium-ion battery plays a critical role in the reliability of vehicle system. In order to provide timely management and protection for battery systems, it is necessary to develop a reliable battery model and accurate battery parameters estimation to describe battery dynamic behaviors. Therefore, this paper focuses on an on-board adaptive model for state-of-charge (SOC) estimation of lithium-ion batteries. Firstly, a first-order equivalent circuit battery model is employed to describe battery dynamic characteristics. Then, the recursive least square algorithm and the off-line identification method are used to provide good initial values of model parameters to ensure filter stability and reduce the convergence time. Thirdly, an extended-Kalman-filter (EKF) is applied to on-line estimate battery SOC and model parameters. Considering that the EKF is essentially a first-order Taylor approximation of battery model, which contains inevitable model errors, thus, a proportional integral-based error adjustment technique is employed to improve the performance of EKF method and correct model parameters. Finally, the experimental results on lithium-ion batteries indicate that the proposed EKF with proportional integral-based error adjustment method can provide robust and accurate battery model and on-line parameter estimation.

On Using Exponential Parameter Estimators with an Adaptive Controller

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Patre, Parag; Joshi, Suresh M.

2011-01-01

Typical adaptive controllers are restricted to using a specific update law to generate parameter estimates. This paper investigates the possibility of using any exponential parameter estimator with an adaptive controller such that the system tracks a desired trajectory. The goal is to provide flexibility in choosing any update law suitable for a given application. The development relies on a previously developed concept of controller/update law modularity in the adaptive control literature, and the use of a converse Lyapunov-like theorem. Stability analysis is presented to derive gain conditions under which this is possible, and inferences are made about the tracking error performance. The development is based on a class of Euler-Lagrange systems that are used to model various engineering systems including space robots and manipulators.

An Application of the Rasch Model to Computerized Adaptive Testing.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wisniewski, Dennis R.

Three questions concerning the Binary Search Method (BSM) of computerized adaptive testing were studied: (1) whether it provided a reliable and valid estimation of examinee ability; (2) its effect on examinee attitudes toward computerized adaptive testing and conventional paper-and-pencil testing; and (3) the relationship between item response…

Introduction to State Estimation of High-Rate System Dynamics

PubMed Central

Dodson, Jacob; Joyce, Bryan

2018-01-01

Engineering systems experiencing high-rate dynamic events, including airbags, debris detection, and active blast protection systems, could benefit from real-time observability for enhanced performance. However, the task of high-rate state estimation is challenging, in particular for real-time applications where the rate of the observer’s convergence needs to be in the microsecond range. This paper identifies the challenges of state estimation of high-rate systems and discusses the fundamental characteristics of high-rate systems. A survey of applications and methods for estimators that have the potential to produce accurate estimations for a complex system experiencing highly dynamic events is presented. It is argued that adaptive observers are important to this research. In particular, adaptive data-driven observers are advantageous due to their adaptability and lack of dependence on the system model. PMID:29342855

Trial-by-Trial Motor Cortical Correlates of a Rapidly Adapting Visuomotor Internal Model

PubMed Central

Ryu, Stephen I.

2017-01-01

Accurate motor control is mediated by internal models of how neural activity generates movement. We examined neural correlates of an adapting internal model of visuomotor gain in motor cortex while two macaques performed a reaching task in which the gain scaling between the hand and a presented cursor was varied. Previous studies of cortical changes during visuomotor adaptation focused on preparatory and perimovement epochs and analyzed trial-averaged neural data. Here, we recorded simultaneous neural population activity using multielectrode arrays and focused our analysis on neural differences in the period before the target appeared. We found that we could estimate the monkey's internal model of the gain using the neural population state during this pretarget epoch. This neural correlate depended on the gain experienced during recent trials and it predicted the speed of the subsequent reach. To explore the utility of this internal model estimate for brain–machine interfaces, we performed an offline analysis showing that it can be used to compensate for upcoming reach extent errors. Together, these results demonstrate that pretarget neural activity in motor cortex reflects the monkey's internal model of visuomotor gain on single trials and can potentially be used to improve neural prostheses. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT When generating movement commands, the brain is believed to use internal models of the relationship between neural activity and the body's movement. Visuomotor adaptation tasks have revealed neural correlates of these computations in multiple brain areas during movement preparation and execution. Here, we describe motor cortical changes in a visuomotor gain change task even before a specific movement is cued. We were able to estimate the gain internal model from these pretarget neural correlates and relate it to single-trial behavior. This is an important step toward understanding the sensorimotor system's algorithms for updating its internal models after specific movements and errors. Furthermore, the ability to estimate the internal model before movement could improve motor neural prostheses being developed for people with paralysis. PMID:28087767

Adaptive estimation of nonlinear parameters of a nonholonomic spherical robot using a modified fuzzy-based speed gradient algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roozegar, Mehdi; Mahjoob, Mohammad J.; Ayati, Moosa

2017-05-01

This paper deals with adaptive estimation of the unknown parameters and states of a pendulum-driven spherical robot (PDSR), which is a nonlinear in parameters (NLP) chaotic system with parametric uncertainties. Firstly, the mathematical model of the robot is deduced by applying the Newton-Euler methodology for a system of rigid bodies. Then, based on the speed gradient (SG) algorithm, the states and unknown parameters of the robot are estimated online for different step length gains and initial conditions. The estimated parameters are updated adaptively according to the error between estimated and true state values. Since the errors of the estimated states and parameters as well as the convergence rates depend significantly on the value of step length gain, this gain should be chosen optimally. Hence, a heuristic fuzzy logic controller is employed to adjust the gain adaptively. Simulation results indicate that the proposed approach is highly encouraging for identification of this NLP chaotic system even if the initial conditions change and the uncertainties increase; therefore, it is reliable to be implemented on a real robot.

Best Design for Multidimensional Computerized Adaptive Testing With the Bifactor Model

PubMed Central

Seo, Dong Gi; Weiss, David J.

2015-01-01

Most computerized adaptive tests (CATs) have been studied using the framework of unidimensional item response theory. However, many psychological variables are multidimensional and might benefit from using a multidimensional approach to CATs. This study investigated the accuracy, fidelity, and efficiency of a fully multidimensional CAT algorithm (MCAT) with a bifactor model using simulated data. Four item selection methods in MCAT were examined for three bifactor pattern designs using two multidimensional item response theory models. To compare MCAT item selection and estimation methods, a fixed test length was used. The Ds-optimality item selection improved θ estimates with respect to a general factor, and either D- or A-optimality improved estimates of the group factors in three bifactor pattern designs under two multidimensional item response theory models. The MCAT model without a guessing parameter functioned better than the MCAT model with a guessing parameter. The MAP (maximum a posteriori) estimation method provided more accurate θ estimates than the EAP (expected a posteriori) method under most conditions, and MAP showed lower observed standard errors than EAP under most conditions, except for a general factor condition using Ds-optimality item selection. PMID:29795848

A reduced-order adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system model as a software sensor for rapid estimation of five-day biochemical oxygen demand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noori, Roohollah; Safavi, Salman; Nateghi Shahrokni, Seyyed Afshin

2013-07-01

The five-day biochemical oxygen demand (BOD5) is one of the key parameters in water quality management. In this study, a novel approach, i.e., reduced-order adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ROANFIS) model was developed for rapid estimation of BOD5. In addition, an uncertainty analysis of adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and ROANFIS models was carried out based on Monte-Carlo simulation. Accuracy analysis of ANFIS and ROANFIS models based on both developed discrepancy ratio and threshold statistics revealed that the selected ROANFIS model was superior. Pearson correlation coefficient (R) and root mean square error for the best fitted ROANFIS model were 0.96 and 7.12, respectively. Furthermore, uncertainty analysis of the developed models indicated that the selected ROANFIS had less uncertainty than the ANFIS model and accurately forecasted BOD5 in the Sefidrood River Basin. Besides, the uncertainty analysis also showed that bracketed predictions by 95% confidence bound and d-factor in the testing steps for the selected ROANFIS model were 94% and 0.83, respectively.

Adapting the Biome-BGC Model to New Zealand Pastoral Agriculture: Climate Change and Land-Use Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keller, E. D.; Baisden, W. T.; Timar, L.

2011-12-01

We have adapted the Biome-BGC model to make climate change and land-use scenario estimates of New Zealand's pasture production in 2020 and 2050, with comparison to a 2005 baseline. We take an integrated modelling approach with the aim of enabling the model's use for policy assessments across broadly related issues such as climate change mitigation and adaptation, land-use change, and greenhouse gas projections. The Biome-BGC model is a biogeochemical model that simulates carbon, water, and nitrogen cycles in terrestrial ecosystems. We introduce two new 'ecosystems', sheep/beef and dairy pasture, within the existing structure of the Biome-BGC model and calibrate its ecophysiological parameters against pasture clipping data from diverse sites around New Zealand to form a baseline estimate of total New Zealand pasture production. Using downscaled AR4 climate projections, we construct mid- and upper-range climate change scenarios in 2020 and 2050. We produce land-use change scenarios in the same years by combining the Biome-BGC model with the Land Use in Rural New Zealand (LURNZ) model. The LURNZ model uses econometric approaches to predict future land-use change driven by changes in net profits driven by expected pricing, including the introduction of an emission trading system. We estimate the relative change in national pasture production from our 2005 baseline levels for both sheep/beef and dairy systems under each scenario.

Estimating postfire water production in the Pacific Northwest

Treesearch

Donald F. Potts; David L. Peterson; Hans R. Zuuring

1989-01-01

Two hydrologic models were adapted to estimate postfire changer in water yield in Pacific Northwest watersheds. The WRENSS version of the simulation model PROSPER is used for hydrologic regimes dominated by rainfall: it calculates water available for streamflow onthe basis of seasonal precipitation and leaf area index. The WRENSS version of the simulation model WATBAL...

Online Denoising Based on the Second-Order Adaptive Statistics Model.

PubMed

Yi, Sheng-Lun; Jin, Xue-Bo; Su, Ting-Li; Tang, Zhen-Yun; Wang, Fa-Fa; Xiang, Na; Kong, Jian-Lei

2017-07-20

Online denoising is motivated by real-time applications in the industrial process, where the data must be utilizable soon after it is collected. Since the noise in practical process is usually colored, it is quite a challenge for denoising techniques. In this paper, a novel online denoising method was proposed to achieve the processing of the practical measurement data with colored noise, and the characteristics of the colored noise were considered in the dynamic model via an adaptive parameter. The proposed method consists of two parts within a closed loop: the first one is to estimate the system state based on the second-order adaptive statistics model and the other is to update the adaptive parameter in the model using the Yule-Walker algorithm. Specifically, the state estimation process was implemented via the Kalman filter in a recursive way, and the online purpose was therefore attained. Experimental data in a reinforced concrete structure test was used to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method. Results show the proposed method not only dealt with the signals with colored noise, but also achieved a tradeoff between efficiency and accuracy.

Sequential causal inference: Application to randomized trials of adaptive treatment strategies

PubMed Central

Dawson, Ree; Lavori, Philip W.

2009-01-01

SUMMARY Clinical trials that randomize subjects to decision algorithms, which adapt treatments over time according to individual response, have gained considerable interest as investigators seek designs that directly inform clinical decision making. We consider designs in which subjects are randomized sequentially at decision points, among adaptive treatment options under evaluation. We present a sequential method to estimate the comparative effects of the randomized adaptive treatments, which are formalized as adaptive treatment strategies. Our causal estimators are derived using Bayesian predictive inference. We use analytical and empirical calculations to compare the predictive estimators to (i) the ‘standard’ approach that allocates the sequentially obtained data to separate strategy-specific groups as would arise from randomizing subjects at baseline; (ii) the semi-parametric approach of marginal mean models that, under appropriate experimental conditions, provides the same sequential estimator of causal differences as the proposed approach. Simulation studies demonstrate that sequential causal inference offers substantial efficiency gains over the standard approach to comparing treatments, because the predictive estimators can take advantage of the monotone structure of shared data among adaptive strategies. We further demonstrate that the semi-parametric asymptotic variances, which are marginal ‘one-step’ estimators, may exhibit significant bias, in contrast to the predictive variances. We show that the conditions under which the sequential method is attractive relative to the other two approaches are those most likely to occur in real studies. PMID:17914714

Global mortality consequences of climate change accounting for adaptation costs and benefits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rising, J. A.; Jina, A.; Carleton, T.; Hsiang, S. M.; Greenstone, M.

2017-12-01

Empirically-based and plausibly causal estimates of the damages of climate change are greatly needed to inform rapidly developing global and local climate policies. To accurately reflect the costs of climate change, it is essential to estimate how much populations will adapt to a changing climate, yet adaptation remains one of the least understood aspects of social responses to climate. In this paper, we develop and implement a novel methodology to estimate climate impacts on mortality rates. We assemble comprehensive sub-national panel data in 41 countries that account for 56% of the world's population, and combine them with high resolution daily climate data to flexibly estimate the causal effect of temperature on mortality. We find the impacts of temperature on mortality have a U-shaped response; both hot days and cold days cause excess mortality. However, this average response obscures substantial heterogeneity, as populations are differentially adapted to extreme temperatures. Our empirical model allows us to extrapolate response functions across the entire globe, as well as across time, using a range of economic, population, and climate change scenarios. We also develop a methodology to capture not only the benefits of adaptation, but also its costs. We combine these innovations to produce the first causal, micro-founded, global, empirically-derived climate damage function for human health. We project that by 2100, business-as-usual climate change is likely to incur mortality-only costs that amount to approximately 5% of global GDP for 5°C degrees of warming above pre-industrial levels. On average across model runs, we estimate that the upper bound on adaptation costs amounts to 55% of the total damages.

Locally adaptive MR intensity models and MRF-based segmentation of multiple sclerosis lesions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galimzianova, Alfiia; Lesjak, Žiga; Likar, Boštjan; Pernuš, Franjo; Špiclin, Žiga

2015-03-01

Neuroimaging biomarkers are an important paraclinical tool used to characterize a number of neurological diseases, however, their extraction requires accurate and reliable segmentation of normal and pathological brain structures. For MR images of healthy brains the intensity models of normal-appearing brain tissue (NABT) in combination with Markov random field (MRF) models are known to give reliable and smooth NABT segmentation. However, the presence of pathology, MR intensity bias and natural tissue-dependent intensity variability altogether represent difficult challenges for a reliable estimation of NABT intensity model based on MR images. In this paper, we propose a novel method for segmentation of normal and pathological structures in brain MR images of multiple sclerosis (MS) patients that is based on locally-adaptive NABT model, a robust method for the estimation of model parameters and a MRF-based segmentation framework. Experiments on multi-sequence brain MR images of 27 MS patients show that, compared to whole-brain model and compared to the widely used Expectation-Maximization Segmentation (EMS) method, the locally-adaptive NABT model increases the accuracy of MS lesion segmentation.

Adaptive super-twisting observer for estimation of random road excitation profile in automotive suspension systems.

PubMed

Rath, J J; Veluvolu, K C; Defoort, M

2014-01-01

The estimation of road excitation profile is important for evaluation of vehicle stability and vehicle suspension performance for autonomous vehicle control systems. In this work, the nonlinear dynamics of the active automotive system that is excited by the unknown road excitation profile are considered for modeling. To address the issue of estimation of road profile, we develop an adaptive supertwisting observer for state and unknown road profile estimation. Under Lipschitz conditions for the nonlinear functions, the convergence of the estimation error is proven. Simulation results with Ford Fiesta MK2 demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed observer for state and unknown input estimation for nonlinear active suspension system.

Adaptive Super-Twisting Observer for Estimation of Random Road Excitation Profile in Automotive Suspension Systems

PubMed Central

Rath, J. J.; Veluvolu, K. C.; Defoort, M.

2014-01-01

The estimation of road excitation profile is important for evaluation of vehicle stability and vehicle suspension performance for autonomous vehicle control systems. In this work, the nonlinear dynamics of the active automotive system that is excited by the unknown road excitation profile are considered for modeling. To address the issue of estimation of road profile, we develop an adaptive supertwisting observer for state and unknown road profile estimation. Under Lipschitz conditions for the nonlinear functions, the convergence of the estimation error is proven. Simulation results with Ford Fiesta MK2 demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed observer for state and unknown input estimation for nonlinear active suspension system. PMID:24683321

An adaptive Cartesian control scheme for manipulators

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Seraji, H.

1987-01-01

A adaptive control scheme for direct control of manipulator end-effectors to achieve trajectory tracking in Cartesian space is developed. The control structure is obtained from linear multivariable theory and is composed of simple feedforward and feedback controllers and an auxiliary input. The direct adaptation laws are derived from model reference adaptive control theory and are not based on parameter estimation of the robot model. The utilization of feedforward control and the inclusion of auxiliary input are novel features of the present scheme and result in improved dynamic performance over existing adaptive control schemes. The adaptive controller does not require the complex mathematical model of the robot dynamics or any knowledge of the robot parameters or the payload, and is computationally fast for online implementation with high sampling rates.

Robustness of Ability Estimation to Multidimensionality in CAST with Implications to Test Assembly

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zhang, Yanwei; Nandakumar, Ratna

2006-01-01

Computer Adaptive Sequential Testing (CAST) is a test delivery model that combines features of the traditional conventional paper-and-pencil testing and item-based computerized adaptive testing (CAT). The basic structure of CAST is a panel composed of multiple testlets adaptively administered to examinees at different stages. Current applications…

Speech Enhancement, Gain, and Noise Spectrum Adaptation Using Approximate Bayesian Estimation

PubMed Central

Hao, Jiucang; Attias, Hagai; Nagarajan, Srikantan; Lee, Te-Won; Sejnowski, Terrence J.

2010-01-01

This paper presents a new approximate Bayesian estimator for enhancing a noisy speech signal. The speech model is assumed to be a Gaussian mixture model (GMM) in the log-spectral domain. This is in contrast to most current models in frequency domain. Exact signal estimation is a computationally intractable problem. We derive three approximations to enhance the efficiency of signal estimation. The Gaussian approximation transforms the log-spectral domain GMM into the frequency domain using minimal Kullback–Leiber (KL)-divergency criterion. The frequency domain Laplace method computes the maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimator for the spectral amplitude. Correspondingly, the log-spectral domain Laplace method computes the MAP estimator for the log-spectral amplitude. Further, the gain and noise spectrum adaptation are implemented using the expectation–maximization (EM) algorithm within the GMM under Gaussian approximation. The proposed algorithms are evaluated by applying them to enhance the speeches corrupted by the speech-shaped noise (SSN). The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed algorithms offer improved signal-to-noise ratio, lower word recognition error rate, and less spectral distortion. PMID:20428253

Ensemble Data Assimilation Without Ensembles: Methodology and Application to Ocean Data Assimilation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Keppenne, Christian L.; Rienecker, Michele M.; Kovach, Robin M.; Vernieres, Guillaume

2013-01-01

Two methods to estimate background error covariances for data assimilation are introduced. While both share properties with the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), they differ from it in that they do not require the integration of multiple model trajectories. Instead, all the necessary covariance information is obtained from a single model integration. The first method is referred-to as SAFE (Space Adaptive Forecast error Estimation) because it estimates error covariances from the spatial distribution of model variables within a single state vector. It can thus be thought of as sampling an ensemble in space. The second method, named FAST (Flow Adaptive error Statistics from a Time series), constructs an ensemble sampled from a moving window along a model trajectory. The underlying assumption in these methods is that forecast errors in data assimilation are primarily phase errors in space and/or time.

Background Error Covariance Estimation using Information from a Single Model Trajectory with Application to Ocean Data Assimilation into the GEOS-5 Coupled Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Keppenne, Christian L.; Rienecker, Michele M.; Kovach, Robin M.; Vernieres, Guillaume; Koster, Randal D. (Editor)

2014-01-01

An attractive property of ensemble data assimilation methods is that they provide flow dependent background error covariance estimates which can be used to update fields of observed variables as well as fields of unobserved model variables. Two methods to estimate background error covariances are introduced which share the above property with ensemble data assimilation methods but do not involve the integration of multiple model trajectories. Instead, all the necessary covariance information is obtained from a single model integration. The Space Adaptive Forecast error Estimation (SAFE) algorithm estimates error covariances from the spatial distribution of model variables within a single state vector. The Flow Adaptive error Statistics from a Time series (FAST) method constructs an ensemble sampled from a moving window along a model trajectory. SAFE and FAST are applied to the assimilation of Argo temperature profiles into version 4.1 of the Modular Ocean Model (MOM4.1) coupled to the GEOS-5 atmospheric model and to the CICE sea ice model. The results are validated against unassimilated Argo salinity data. They show that SAFE and FAST are competitive with the ensemble optimal interpolation (EnOI) used by the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) to produce its ocean analysis. Because of their reduced cost, SAFE and FAST hold promise for high-resolution data assimilation applications.

An adaptable neural-network model for recursive nonlinear traffic prediction and modeling of MPEG video sources.

PubMed

Doulamis, A D; Doulamis, N D; Kollias, S D

2003-01-01

Multimedia services and especially digital video is expected to be the major traffic component transmitted over communication networks [such as internet protocol (IP)-based networks]. For this reason, traffic characterization and modeling of such services are required for an efficient network operation. The generated models can be used as traffic rate predictors, during the network operation phase (online traffic modeling), or as video generators for estimating the network resources, during the network design phase (offline traffic modeling). In this paper, an adaptable neural-network architecture is proposed covering both cases. The scheme is based on an efficient recursive weight estimation algorithm, which adapts the network response to current conditions. In particular, the algorithm updates the network weights so that 1) the network output, after the adaptation, is approximately equal to current bit rates (current traffic statistics) and 2) a minimal degradation over the obtained network knowledge is provided. It can be shown that the proposed adaptable neural-network architecture simulates a recursive nonlinear autoregressive model (RNAR) similar to the notation used in the linear case. The algorithm presents low computational complexity and high efficiency in tracking traffic rates in contrast to conventional retraining schemes. Furthermore, for the problem of offline traffic modeling, a novel correlation mechanism is proposed for capturing the burstness of the actual MPEG video traffic. The performance of the model is evaluated using several real-life MPEG coded video sources of long duration and compared with other linear/nonlinear techniques used for both cases. The results indicate that the proposed adaptable neural-network architecture presents better performance than other examined techniques.

Empirical Estimation of Climate Impacts Under Adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rising, J. A.; Jina, A.; Hsiang, S. M.

2016-12-01

Estimating the impacts of climate change requires a careful account of both the present levels of adaptation observed in different regions and the adaptive capacity those regions might show under climate change. To date, little empirical evidence on either of these components. We present a general approach for empirically estimating the impacts of climate change under both forms of adaptation, applied to the United States. We draw upon relationships between daily temperatures and impacts on mortality, agriculture, and crime, from the econometric climate impacts literature. These are estimated using year-to-year temperature variation within each location. The degree to which regions are vulnerable to high temperatures varies across the US, with warmer regions generally showing less vulnerability. As climate changes, cooler regions will adopt behaviors from warmer regions, such as greater use of air conditioning, and their impact relationships will change accordingly. The rate at which regions have adapted is estimated from changes in these relationships over recent decades. We use these results to model future changes in each US county. as they are exposed to warmer temperatures and adopt characteristics of currently warmer areas. We do this across a full range of climate and statistical uncertainty. The median degree to which adaptation alleviates impacts varies by sector, with 10% lower rates of temperature-induced crime, 15% lower yield losses to maize, to 80% lower rates of heat-related mortality. However, the uncertainty in adaptive capacity remains greater than these changes. Uncertainty in regional response relationships and the rate of adaptation dominate the uncertainty in our total result. We perform two thought experiments to explore the extreme potential for adaptation in light of this uncertainty. We replace the regional relationships with a uniform approach to complete temperature insensitivity, using the normal estimated rate of adaptation. We also apply instantaneous adaptation in each year to the regional relationship corresponding to each region's new climate. We show that the rate of adaptation is the critical obstacle to further mortality benefits, while the small observed range of regional adaptations is causing the low adaptive benefits in crime.

Quantifying the impact of adaptive traffic control systems on crash frequency and severity: Evidence from Oakland County, Michigan.

PubMed

Fink, Joshua; Kwigizile, Valerian; Oh, Jun-Seok

2016-06-01

Despite seeing widespread usage worldwide, adaptive traffic control systems have experienced relatively little use in the United States. Of the systems used, the Sydney Coordinated Adaptive Traffic System (SCATS) is the most popular in America. Safety benefits of these systems are not as well understood nor as commonly documented. This study investigates the safety benefits of adaptive traffic control systems by using the large SCATS-based system in Oakland County, MI known as FAST-TRAC. This study uses data from FAST-TRAC-controlled intersections in Oakland County and compares a wide variety of geometric, traffic, and crash characteristics to similar intersections in metropolitan areas elsewhere in Michigan. Data from 498 signalized intersections are used to conduct a cross-sectional analysis. Negative binomial models are used to estimate models for three dependent crash variables. Multinomial logit models are used to estimate an injury severity model. A variable tracking the presence of FAST-TRAC controllers at intersections is used in all models to determine if a SCATS-based system has an impact on crash occurrences or crash severity. Estimates show that the presence of SCATS-based controllers at intersections is likely to reduce angle crashes by up to 19.3%. Severity results show a statistically significant increase in non-serious injuries, but not a significant reduction in incapacitating injuries or fatal accidents. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd and National Safety Council. All rights reserved.

Low-rank and Adaptive Sparse Signal (LASSI) Models for Highly Accelerated Dynamic Imaging

PubMed Central

Ravishankar, Saiprasad; Moore, Brian E.; Nadakuditi, Raj Rao; Fessler, Jeffrey A.

2017-01-01

Sparsity-based approaches have been popular in many applications in image processing and imaging. Compressed sensing exploits the sparsity of images in a transform domain or dictionary to improve image recovery from undersampled measurements. In the context of inverse problems in dynamic imaging, recent research has demonstrated the promise of sparsity and low-rank techniques. For example, the patches of the underlying data are modeled as sparse in an adaptive dictionary domain, and the resulting image and dictionary estimation from undersampled measurements is called dictionary-blind compressed sensing, or the dynamic image sequence is modeled as a sum of low-rank and sparse (in some transform domain) components (L+S model) that are estimated from limited measurements. In this work, we investigate a data-adaptive extension of the L+S model, dubbed LASSI, where the temporal image sequence is decomposed into a low-rank component and a component whose spatiotemporal (3D) patches are sparse in some adaptive dictionary domain. We investigate various formulations and efficient methods for jointly estimating the underlying dynamic signal components and the spatiotemporal dictionary from limited measurements. We also obtain efficient sparsity penalized dictionary-blind compressed sensing methods as special cases of our LASSI approaches. Our numerical experiments demonstrate the promising performance of LASSI schemes for dynamic magnetic resonance image reconstruction from limited k-t space data compared to recent methods such as k-t SLR and L+S, and compared to the proposed dictionary-blind compressed sensing method. PMID:28092528

Low-Rank and Adaptive Sparse Signal (LASSI) Models for Highly Accelerated Dynamic Imaging.

PubMed

Ravishankar, Saiprasad; Moore, Brian E; Nadakuditi, Raj Rao; Fessler, Jeffrey A

2017-05-01

Sparsity-based approaches have been popular in many applications in image processing and imaging. Compressed sensing exploits the sparsity of images in a transform domain or dictionary to improve image recovery fromundersampledmeasurements. In the context of inverse problems in dynamic imaging, recent research has demonstrated the promise of sparsity and low-rank techniques. For example, the patches of the underlying data are modeled as sparse in an adaptive dictionary domain, and the resulting image and dictionary estimation from undersampled measurements is called dictionary-blind compressed sensing, or the dynamic image sequence is modeled as a sum of low-rank and sparse (in some transform domain) components (L+S model) that are estimated from limited measurements. In this work, we investigate a data-adaptive extension of the L+S model, dubbed LASSI, where the temporal image sequence is decomposed into a low-rank component and a component whose spatiotemporal (3D) patches are sparse in some adaptive dictionary domain. We investigate various formulations and efficient methods for jointly estimating the underlying dynamic signal components and the spatiotemporal dictionary from limited measurements. We also obtain efficient sparsity penalized dictionary-blind compressed sensing methods as special cases of our LASSI approaches. Our numerical experiments demonstrate the promising performance of LASSI schemes for dynamicmagnetic resonance image reconstruction from limited k-t space data compared to recent methods such as k-t SLR and L+S, and compared to the proposed dictionary-blind compressed sensing method.

A concept for adaptive performance optimization on commercial transport aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jackson, Michael R.; Enns, Dale F.

1995-01-01

An adaptive control method is presented for the minimization of drag during flight for transport aircraft. The minimization of drag is achieved by taking advantage of the redundant control capability available in the pitch axis, with the horizontal tail used as the primary surface and symmetric deflection of the ailerons and cruise flaps used as additional controls. The additional control surfaces are excited with sinusoidal signals, while the altitude and velocity loops are closed with guidance and control laws. A model of the throttle response as a function of the additional control surfaces is formulated and the parameters in the model are estimated from the sensor measurements using a least squares estimation method. The estimated model is used to determine the minimum drag positions of the control surfaces. The method is presented for the optimization of one and two additional control surfaces. The adaptive control method is extended to optimize rate of climb with the throttle fixed. Simulations that include realistic disturbances are presented, as well as the results of a Monte Carlo simulation analysis that shows the effects of changing the disturbance environment and the excitation signal parameters.

Accurate Attitude Estimation Using ARS under Conditions of Vehicle Movement Based on Disturbance Acceleration Adaptive Estimation and Correction

PubMed Central

Xing, Li; Hang, Yijun; Xiong, Zhi; Liu, Jianye; Wan, Zhong

2016-01-01

This paper describes a disturbance acceleration adaptive estimate and correction approach for an attitude reference system (ARS) so as to improve the attitude estimate precision under vehicle movement conditions. The proposed approach depends on a Kalman filter, where the attitude error, the gyroscope zero offset error and the disturbance acceleration error are estimated. By switching the filter decay coefficient of the disturbance acceleration model in different acceleration modes, the disturbance acceleration is adaptively estimated and corrected, and then the attitude estimate precision is improved. The filter was tested in three different disturbance acceleration modes (non-acceleration, vibration-acceleration and sustained-acceleration mode, respectively) by digital simulation. Moreover, the proposed approach was tested in a kinematic vehicle experiment as well. Using the designed simulations and kinematic vehicle experiments, it has been shown that the disturbance acceleration of each mode can be accurately estimated and corrected. Moreover, compared with the complementary filter, the experimental results have explicitly demonstrated the proposed approach further improves the attitude estimate precision under vehicle movement conditions. PMID:27754469

Accurate Attitude Estimation Using ARS under Conditions of Vehicle Movement Based on Disturbance Acceleration Adaptive Estimation and Correction.

PubMed

Xing, Li; Hang, Yijun; Xiong, Zhi; Liu, Jianye; Wan, Zhong

2016-10-16

This paper describes a disturbance acceleration adaptive estimate and correction approach for an attitude reference system (ARS) so as to improve the attitude estimate precision under vehicle movement conditions. The proposed approach depends on a Kalman filter, where the attitude error, the gyroscope zero offset error and the disturbance acceleration error are estimated. By switching the filter decay coefficient of the disturbance acceleration model in different acceleration modes, the disturbance acceleration is adaptively estimated and corrected, and then the attitude estimate precision is improved. The filter was tested in three different disturbance acceleration modes (non-acceleration, vibration-acceleration and sustained-acceleration mode, respectively) by digital simulation. Moreover, the proposed approach was tested in a kinematic vehicle experiment as well. Using the designed simulations and kinematic vehicle experiments, it has been shown that the disturbance acceleration of each mode can be accurately estimated and corrected. Moreover, compared with the complementary filter, the experimental results have explicitly demonstrated the proposed approach further improves the attitude estimate precision under vehicle movement conditions.

An adaptive Gaussian process-based iterative ensemble smoother for data assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ju, Lei; Zhang, Jiangjiang; Meng, Long; Wu, Laosheng; Zeng, Lingzao

2018-05-01

Accurate characterization of subsurface hydraulic conductivity is vital for modeling of subsurface flow and transport. The iterative ensemble smoother (IES) has been proposed to estimate the heterogeneous parameter field. As a Monte Carlo-based method, IES requires a relatively large ensemble size to guarantee its performance. To improve the computational efficiency, we propose an adaptive Gaussian process (GP)-based iterative ensemble smoother (GPIES) in this study. At each iteration, the GP surrogate is adaptively refined by adding a few new base points chosen from the updated parameter realizations. Then the sensitivity information between model parameters and measurements is calculated from a large number of realizations generated by the GP surrogate with virtually no computational cost. Since the original model evaluations are only required for base points, whose number is much smaller than the ensemble size, the computational cost is significantly reduced. The applicability of GPIES in estimating heterogeneous conductivity is evaluated by the saturated and unsaturated flow problems, respectively. Without sacrificing estimation accuracy, GPIES achieves about an order of magnitude of speed-up compared with the standard IES. Although subsurface flow problems are considered in this study, the proposed method can be equally applied to other hydrological models.

An adaptive ARX model to estimate the RUL of aluminum plates based on its crack growth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barraza-Barraza, Diana; Tercero-Gómez, Víctor G.; Beruvides, Mario G.; Limón-Robles, Jorge

2017-01-01

A wide variety of Condition-Based Maintenance (CBM) techniques deal with the problem of predicting the time for an asset fault. Most statistical approaches rely on historical failure data that might not be available in several practical situations. To address this issue, practitioners might require the use of self-starting approaches that consider only the available knowledge about the current degradation process and the asset operating context to update the prognostic model. Some authors use Autoregressive (AR) models for this purpose that are adequate when the asset operating context is constant, however, if it is variable, the accuracy of the models can be affected. In this paper, three autoregressive models with exogenous variables (ARX) were constructed, and their capability to estimate the remaining useful life (RUL) of a process was evaluated following the case of the aluminum crack growth problem. An existing stochastic model of aluminum crack growth was implemented and used to assess RUL estimation performance of the proposed ARX models through extensive Monte Carlo simulations. Point and interval estimations were made based only on individual history, behavior, operating conditions and failure thresholds. Both analytic and bootstrapping techniques were used in the estimation process. Finally, by including recursive parameter estimation and a forgetting factor, the ARX methodology adapts to changing operating conditions and maintain the focus on the current degradation level of an asset.

Background Error Covariance Estimation Using Information from a Single Model Trajectory with Application to Ocean Data Assimilation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Keppenne, Christian L.; Rienecker, Michele; Kovach, Robin M.; Vernieres, Guillaume

2014-01-01

An attractive property of ensemble data assimilation methods is that they provide flow dependent background error covariance estimates which can be used to update fields of observed variables as well as fields of unobserved model variables. Two methods to estimate background error covariances are introduced which share the above property with ensemble data assimilation methods but do not involve the integration of multiple model trajectories. Instead, all the necessary covariance information is obtained from a single model integration. The Space Adaptive Forecast error Estimation (SAFE) algorithm estimates error covariances from the spatial distribution of model variables within a single state vector. The Flow Adaptive error Statistics from a Time series (FAST) method constructs an ensemble sampled from a moving window along a model trajectory.SAFE and FAST are applied to the assimilation of Argo temperature profiles into version 4.1 of the Modular Ocean Model (MOM4.1) coupled to the GEOS-5 atmospheric model and to the CICE sea ice model. The results are validated against unassimilated Argo salinity data. They show that SAFE and FAST are competitive with the ensemble optimal interpolation (EnOI) used by the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) to produce its ocean analysis. Because of their reduced cost, SAFE and FAST hold promise for high-resolution data assimilation applications.

Intelligent adaptive nonlinear flight control for a high performance aircraft with neural networks.

PubMed

Savran, Aydogan; Tasaltin, Ramazan; Becerikli, Yasar

2006-04-01

This paper describes the development of a neural network (NN) based adaptive flight control system for a high performance aircraft. The main contribution of this work is that the proposed control system is able to compensate the system uncertainties, adapt to the changes in flight conditions, and accommodate the system failures. The underlying study can be considered in two phases. The objective of the first phase is to model the dynamic behavior of a nonlinear F-16 model using NNs. Therefore a NN-based adaptive identification model is developed for three angular rates of the aircraft. An on-line training procedure is developed to adapt the changes in the system dynamics and improve the identification accuracy. In this procedure, a first-in first-out stack is used to store a certain history of the input-output data. The training is performed over the whole data in the stack at every stage. To speed up the convergence rate and enhance the accuracy for achieving the on-line learning, the Levenberg-Marquardt optimization method with a trust region approach is adapted to train the NNs. The objective of the second phase is to develop intelligent flight controllers. A NN-based adaptive PID control scheme that is composed of an emulator NN, an estimator NN, and a discrete time PID controller is developed. The emulator NN is used to calculate the system Jacobian required to train the estimator NN. The estimator NN, which is trained on-line by propagating the output error through the emulator, is used to adjust the PID gains. The NN-based adaptive PID control system is applied to control three angular rates of the nonlinear F-16 model. The body-axis pitch, roll, and yaw rates are fed back via the PID controllers to the elevator, aileron, and rudder actuators, respectively. The resulting control system has learning, adaptation, and fault-tolerant abilities. It avoids the storage and interpolation requirements for the too many controller parameters of a typical flight control system. Performance of the control system is successfully tested by performing several six-degrees-of-freedom nonlinear simulations.

Speed adaptation in a powered transtibial prosthesis controlled with a neuromuscular model.

PubMed

Markowitz, Jared; Krishnaswamy, Pavitra; Eilenberg, Michael F; Endo, Ken; Barnhart, Chris; Herr, Hugh

2011-05-27

Control schemes for powered ankle-foot prostheses would benefit greatly from a means to make them inherently adaptive to different walking speeds. Towards this goal, one may attempt to emulate the intact human ankle, as it is capable of seamless adaptation. Human locomotion is governed by the interplay among legged dynamics, morphology and neural control including spinal reflexes. It has been suggested that reflexes contribute to the changes in ankle joint dynamics that correspond to walking at different speeds. Here, we use a data-driven muscle-tendon model that produces estimates of the activation, force, length and velocity of the major muscles spanning the ankle to derive local feedback loops that may be critical in the control of those muscles during walking. This purely reflexive approach ignores sources of non-reflexive neural drive and does not necessarily reflect the biological control scheme, yet can still closely reproduce the muscle dynamics estimated from biological data. The resulting neuromuscular model was applied to control a powered ankle-foot prosthesis and tested by an amputee walking at three speeds. The controller produced speed-adaptive behaviour; net ankle work increased with walking speed, highlighting the benefits of applying neuromuscular principles in the control of adaptive prosthetic limbs.

Dynamic experiment design regularization approach to adaptive imaging with array radar/SAR sensor systems.

PubMed

Shkvarko, Yuriy; Tuxpan, José; Santos, Stewart

2011-01-01

We consider a problem of high-resolution array radar/SAR imaging formalized in terms of a nonlinear ill-posed inverse problem of nonparametric estimation of the power spatial spectrum pattern (SSP) of the random wavefield scattered from a remotely sensed scene observed through a kernel signal formation operator and contaminated with random Gaussian noise. First, the Sobolev-type solution space is constructed to specify the class of consistent kernel SSP estimators with the reproducing kernel structures adapted to the metrics in such the solution space. Next, the "model-free" variational analysis (VA)-based image enhancement approach and the "model-based" descriptive experiment design (DEED) regularization paradigm are unified into a new dynamic experiment design (DYED) regularization framework. Application of the proposed DYED framework to the adaptive array radar/SAR imaging problem leads to a class of two-level (DEED-VA) regularized SSP reconstruction techniques that aggregate the kernel adaptive anisotropic windowing with the projections onto convex sets to enforce the consistency and robustness of the overall iterative SSP estimators. We also show how the proposed DYED regularization method may be considered as a generalization of the MVDR, APES and other high-resolution nonparametric adaptive radar sensing techniques. A family of the DYED-related algorithms is constructed and their effectiveness is finally illustrated via numerical simulations.

Brownian motion with adaptive drift for remaining useful life prediction: Revisited

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Dong; Tsui, Kwok-Leung

2018-01-01

Linear Brownian motion with constant drift is widely used in remaining useful life predictions because its first hitting time follows the inverse Gaussian distribution. State space modelling of linear Brownian motion was proposed to make the drift coefficient adaptive and incorporate on-line measurements into the first hitting time distribution. Here, the drift coefficient followed the Gaussian distribution, and it was iteratively estimated by using Kalman filtering once a new measurement was available. Then, to model nonlinear degradation, linear Brownian motion with adaptive drift was extended to nonlinear Brownian motion with adaptive drift. However, in previous studies, an underlying assumption used in the state space modelling was that in the update phase of Kalman filtering, the predicted drift coefficient at the current time exactly equalled the posterior drift coefficient estimated at the previous time, which caused a contradiction with the predicted drift coefficient evolution driven by an additive Gaussian process noise. In this paper, to alleviate such an underlying assumption, a new state space model is constructed. As a result, in the update phase of Kalman filtering, the predicted drift coefficient at the current time evolves from the posterior drift coefficient at the previous time. Moreover, the optimal Kalman filtering gain for iteratively estimating the posterior drift coefficient at any time is mathematically derived. A discussion that theoretically explains the main reasons why the constructed state space model can result in high remaining useful life prediction accuracies is provided. Finally, the proposed state space model and its associated Kalman filtering gain are applied to battery prognostics.

Direct adaptive control of manipulators in Cartesian space

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Seraji, H.

1987-01-01

A new adaptive-control scheme for direct control of manipulator end effector to achieve trajectory tracking in Cartesian space is developed in this article. The control structure is obtained from linear multivariable theory and is composed of simple feedforward and feedback controllers and an auxiliary input. The direct adaptation laws are derived from model reference adaptive control theory and are not based on parameter estimation of the robot model. The utilization of adaptive feedforward control and the inclusion of auxiliary input are novel features of the present scheme and result in improved dynamic performance over existing adaptive control schemes. The adaptive controller does not require the complex mathematical model of the robot dynamics or any knowledge of the robot parameters or the payload, and is computationally fast for on-line implementation with high sampling rates. The control scheme is applied to a two-link manipulator for illustration.

Performance Optimizing Adaptive Control with Time-Varying Reference Model Modification

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nguyen, Nhan T.; Hashemi, Kelley E.

2017-01-01

This paper presents a new adaptive control approach that involves a performance optimization objective. The control synthesis involves the design of a performance optimizing adaptive controller from a subset of control inputs. The resulting effect of the performance optimizing adaptive controller is to modify the initial reference model into a time-varying reference model which satisfies the performance optimization requirement obtained from an optimal control problem. The time-varying reference model modification is accomplished by the real-time solutions of the time-varying Riccati and Sylvester equations coupled with the least-squares parameter estimation of the sensitivities of the performance metric. The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated by an application of maneuver load alleviation control for a flexible aircraft.

Methodologies for Adaptive Flight Envelope Estimation and Protection

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tang, Liang; Roemer, Michael; Ge, Jianhua; Crassidis, Agamemnon; Prasad, J. V. R.; Belcastro, Christine

2009-01-01

This paper reports the latest development of several techniques for adaptive flight envelope estimation and protection system for aircraft under damage upset conditions. Through the integration of advanced fault detection algorithms, real-time system identification of the damage/faulted aircraft and flight envelop estimation, real-time decision support can be executed autonomously for improving damage tolerance and flight recoverability. Particularly, a bank of adaptive nonlinear fault detection and isolation estimators were developed for flight control actuator faults; a real-time system identification method was developed for assessing the dynamics and performance limitation of impaired aircraft; online learning neural networks were used to approximate selected aircraft dynamics which were then inverted to estimate command margins. As off-line training of network weights is not required, the method has the advantage of adapting to varying flight conditions and different vehicle configurations. The key benefit of the envelope estimation and protection system is that it allows the aircraft to fly close to its limit boundary by constantly updating the controller command limits during flight. The developed techniques were demonstrated on NASA s Generic Transport Model (GTM) simulation environments with simulated actuator faults. Simulation results and remarks on future work are presented.

An iteratively reweighted least-squares approach to adaptive robust adjustment of parameters in linear regression models with autoregressive and t-distributed deviations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kargoll, Boris; Omidalizarandi, Mohammad; Loth, Ina; Paffenholz, Jens-André; Alkhatib, Hamza

2018-03-01

In this paper, we investigate a linear regression time series model of possibly outlier-afflicted observations and autocorrelated random deviations. This colored noise is represented by a covariance-stationary autoregressive (AR) process, in which the independent error components follow a scaled (Student's) t-distribution. This error model allows for the stochastic modeling of multiple outliers and for an adaptive robust maximum likelihood (ML) estimation of the unknown regression and AR coefficients, the scale parameter, and the degree of freedom of the t-distribution. This approach is meant to be an extension of known estimators, which tend to focus only on the regression model, or on the AR error model, or on normally distributed errors. For the purpose of ML estimation, we derive an expectation conditional maximization either algorithm, which leads to an easy-to-implement version of iteratively reweighted least squares. The estimation performance of the algorithm is evaluated via Monte Carlo simulations for a Fourier as well as a spline model in connection with AR colored noise models of different orders and with three different sampling distributions generating the white noise components. We apply the algorithm to a vibration dataset recorded by a high-accuracy, single-axis accelerometer, focusing on the evaluation of the estimated AR colored noise model.

Empirical Allometric Models to Estimate Total Needle Biomass For Loblolly Pine

Treesearch

Hector M. de los Santos-Posadas; Bruce E. Borders

2002-01-01

Empirical geometric models based on the cone surface formula were adapted and used to estimate total dry needle biomass (TNB) and live branch basal area (LBBA). The results suggest that the empirical geometric equations produced good fit and stable parameters while estimating TNB and LBBA. The data used include trees form a spacing study of 12 years old and a set of...

Trajectory-adaptive route choice models : specification, choice set generation, and estimation.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-03-01

The objective of the research is to investigate adaptive route choice behavior using individuallevel route choice data from GPS (Global Positioning System) observations in a real-life : network, where a traveler could revise the route choice based up...

Estimated spectrum adaptive postfilter and the iterative prepost filtering algirighms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Linares, Irving (Inventor)

2004-01-01

The invention presents The Estimated Spectrum Adaptive Postfilter (ESAP) and the Iterative Prepost Filter (IPF) algorithms. These algorithms model a number of image-adaptive post-filtering and pre-post filtering methods. They are designed to minimize Discrete Cosine Transform (DCT) blocking distortion caused when images are highly compressed with the Joint Photographic Expert Group (JPEG) standard. The ESAP and the IPF techniques of the present invention minimize the mean square error (MSE) to improve the objective and subjective quality of low-bit-rate JPEG gray-scale images while simultaneously enhancing perceptual visual quality with respect to baseline JPEG images.

Investigation of Models and Estimation Techniques for GPS Attitude Determination

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Garrick, J.

1996-01-01

Much work has been done in the Flight Dynamics Analysis Branch (FDAB) in developing algorithms to met the new and growing field of attitude determination using the Global Positioning SYstem (GPS) constellation of satellites. Flight Dynamics has the responsibility to investigate any new technology and incorporate the innovations in the attitude ground support systems developed to support future missions. The work presented here is an investigative analysis that will produce the needed adaptation to allow the Flight Dynamics Support System (FDSS) to incorporate GPS phase measurements and produce observation measurements compatible with the FDSS. A simulator was developed to produce the necessary measurement data to test the models developed for the different estimation techniques used by FDAB. This paper gives an overview of the current modeling capabilities of the simulator models and algorithms for the adaptation of GPS measurement data and results from each of the estimation techniques. Future analysis efforts to evaluate the simulator and models against inflight GPS measurement data are also outlined.

Adaptive Control in the Presence of Simultaneous Sensor Bias and Actuator Failures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Joshi, Suresh M.

2012-01-01

The problem of simultaneously accommodating unknown sensor biases and unknown actuator failures in uncertain systems is considered in a direct model reference adaptive control (MRAC) setting for state tracking using state feedback. Sensor biases and actuator faults may be present at the outset or may occur at unknown instants of time during operation. A modified MRAC law is proposed, which combines sensor bias estimation with control gain adaptation for accommodation of sensor biases and actuator failures. This control law is shown to provide signal boundedness in the resulting system. For the case when an external asymptotically stable sensor bias estimator is available, an MRAC law is developed to accomplish asymptotic state tracking and signal boundedness. For a special case wherein biases are only present in the rate measurements and bias-free position measurements are available, an MRAC law is developed using a model-independent bias estimator, and is shown to provide asymptotic state tracking with signal boundedness.

Sequential Adaptive Multi-Modality Target Detection and Classification Using Physics Based Models

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-09-01

estimation," R. Raghuram, R. Raich and A.O. Hero, IEEE Intl. Conf. on Acoustics, Speech , and Signal Processing, Toulouse France, June 2006, <http...can then be solved using off-the-shelf classifiers such as radial basis functions, SVM, or kNN classifier structures. When applied to mine detection we...stage waveform selection for adaptive resource constrained state estimation," 2006 IEEE Intl. Conf. on Acoustics, Speech , and Signal Processing

Kalman Filtered Bio Heat Transfer Model Based Self-adaptive Hybrid Magnetic Resonance Thermometry.

PubMed

Zhang, Yuxin; Chen, Shuo; Deng, Kexin; Chen, Bingyao; Wei, Xing; Yang, Jiafei; Wang, Shi; Ying, Kui

2017-01-01

To develop a self-adaptive and fast thermometry method by combining the original hybrid magnetic resonance thermometry method and the bio heat transfer equation (BHTE) model. The proposed Kalman filtered Bio Heat Transfer Model Based Self-adaptive Hybrid Magnetic Resonance Thermometry, abbreviated as KalBHT hybrid method, introduced the BHTE model to synthesize a window on the regularization term of the hybrid algorithm, which leads to a self-adaptive regularization both spatially and temporally with change of temperature. Further, to decrease the sensitivity to accuracy of the BHTE model, Kalman filter is utilized to update the window at each iteration time. To investigate the effect of the proposed model, computer heating simulation, phantom microwave heating experiment and dynamic in-vivo model validation of liver and thoracic tumor were conducted in this study. The heating simulation indicates that the KalBHT hybrid algorithm achieves more accurate results without adjusting λ to a proper value in comparison to the hybrid algorithm. The results of the phantom heating experiment illustrate that the proposed model is able to follow temperature changes in the presence of motion and the temperature estimated also shows less noise in the background and surrounding the hot spot. The dynamic in-vivo model validation with heating simulation demonstrates that the proposed model has a higher convergence rate, more robustness to susceptibility problem surrounding the hot spot and more accuracy of temperature estimation. In the healthy liver experiment with heating simulation, the RMSE of the hot spot of the proposed model is reduced to about 50% compared to the RMSE of the original hybrid model and the convergence time becomes only about one fifth of the hybrid model. The proposed model is able to improve the accuracy of the original hybrid algorithm and accelerate the convergence rate of MR temperature estimation.

Online EEG-Based Workload Adaptation of an Arithmetic Learning Environment.

PubMed

Walter, Carina; Rosenstiel, Wolfgang; Bogdan, Martin; Gerjets, Peter; Spüler, Martin

2017-01-01

In this paper, we demonstrate a closed-loop EEG-based learning environment, that adapts instructional learning material online, to improve learning success in students during arithmetic learning. The amount of cognitive workload during learning is crucial for successful learning and should be held in the optimal range for each learner. Based on EEG data from 10 subjects, we created a prediction model that estimates the learner's workload to obtain an unobtrusive workload measure. Furthermore, we developed an interactive learning environment that uses the prediction model to estimate the learner's workload online based on the EEG data and adapt the difficulty of the learning material to keep the learner's workload in an optimal range. The EEG-based learning environment was used by 13 subjects to learn arithmetic addition in the octal number system, leading to a significant learning effect. The results suggest that it is feasible to use EEG as an unobtrusive measure of cognitive workload to adapt the learning content. Further it demonstrates that a promptly workload prediction is possible using a generalized prediction model without the need for a user-specific calibration.

Modeling, Control, and Estimation of Flexible, Aerodynamic Structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ray, Cody W.

Engineers have long been inspired by nature’s flyers. Such animals navigate complex environments gracefully and efficiently by using a variety of evolutionary adaptations for high-performance flight. Biologists have discovered a variety of sensory adaptations that provide flow state feedback and allow flying animals to feel their way through flight. A specialized skeletal wing structure and plethora of robust, adaptable sensory systems together allow nature’s flyers to adapt to myriad flight conditions and regimes. In this work, motivated by biology and the successes of bio-inspired, engineered aerial vehicles, linear quadratic control of a flexible, morphing wing design is investigated, helping to pave the way for truly autonomous, mission-adaptive craft. The proposed control algorithm is demonstrated to morph a wing into desired positions. Furthermore, motivated specifically by the sensory adaptations organisms possess, this work transitions to an investigation of aircraft wing load identification using structural response as measured by distributed sensors. A novel, recursive estimation algorithm is utilized to recursively solve the inverse problem of load identification, providing both wing structural and aerodynamic states for use in a feedback control, mission-adaptive framework. The recursive load identification algorithm is demonstrated to provide accurate load estimate in both simulation and experiment.

Trial-by-Trial Motor Cortical Correlates of a Rapidly Adapting Visuomotor Internal Model.

PubMed

Stavisky, Sergey D; Kao, Jonathan C; Ryu, Stephen I; Shenoy, Krishna V

2017-02-15

Accurate motor control is mediated by internal models of how neural activity generates movement. We examined neural correlates of an adapting internal model of visuomotor gain in motor cortex while two macaques performed a reaching task in which the gain scaling between the hand and a presented cursor was varied. Previous studies of cortical changes during visuomotor adaptation focused on preparatory and perimovement epochs and analyzed trial-averaged neural data. Here, we recorded simultaneous neural population activity using multielectrode arrays and focused our analysis on neural differences in the period before the target appeared. We found that we could estimate the monkey's internal model of the gain using the neural population state during this pretarget epoch. This neural correlate depended on the gain experienced during recent trials and it predicted the speed of the subsequent reach. To explore the utility of this internal model estimate for brain-machine interfaces, we performed an offline analysis showing that it can be used to compensate for upcoming reach extent errors. Together, these results demonstrate that pretarget neural activity in motor cortex reflects the monkey's internal model of visuomotor gain on single trials and can potentially be used to improve neural prostheses. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT When generating movement commands, the brain is believed to use internal models of the relationship between neural activity and the body's movement. Visuomotor adaptation tasks have revealed neural correlates of these computations in multiple brain areas during movement preparation and execution. Here, we describe motor cortical changes in a visuomotor gain change task even before a specific movement is cued. We were able to estimate the gain internal model from these pretarget neural correlates and relate it to single-trial behavior. This is an important step toward understanding the sensorimotor system's algorithms for updating its internal models after specific movements and errors. Furthermore, the ability to estimate the internal model before movement could improve motor neural prostheses being developed for people with paralysis. Copyright © 2017 the authors 0270-6474/17/371721-12$15.00/0.

Decentralized Estimation and Vision-based Guidance of Fast Autonomous Systems with Guaranteed Performance in Uncertain Environments

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-04-22

Following for Unmanned Aerial Vehicles Using L1 Adaptive Augmentation of Commercial Autopilots, Journal of Guidance, Control, and Dynamics, (3 2010): 0...Naira Hovakimyan. L1 Adaptive Controller for MIMO system with Unmatched Uncertainties using Modi?ed Piecewise Constant Adaptation Law, IEEE 51st...adaptive input nominal input with  Nominal input L1 ‐based control generator  This L1 adaptive control architecture uses data from the reference model

Enhanced degradation and soil depth effects on the fate of atrazine and major metabolites in Colorado and Mississippi soils.

PubMed

Krutz, L Jason; Shaner, Dale L; Zablotowicz, Robert M

2010-01-01

The aim of this report is to inform modelers of the differences in atrazine fate between s-triazine-adapted and nonadapted soils as a function of depth in the profile and to recommend atrazine and metabolite input values for pesticide process submodules. The objectives of this study were to estimate the atrazine-mineralizing bacterial population, cumulative atrazine mineralization, atrazine persistence, and metabolite (desethylatrazine [DEA], deisopropylatrazine [DIA], and hydroxyatrazine [HA]) formation and degradation in Colorado and Mississippi s-triazine-adapted and nonadapted soils at three depths (0-5, 5-15, and 15-30 cm). Regardless of depth, the AMBP and cumulative atrazine mineralization was at least 3.8-fold higher in s-triazine-adapted than nonadapted soils. Atrazine half-life (T1/2) values pooled over nonadapted soils and depths approximated historic estimates (T1/2 = 60 d). Atrazine persistence in all depths of s-triazine-adapted soils was at least fourfold lower than that of the nonadapted soil. Atrazine metabolite concentrations were lower in s-triazine-adapted than in nonadapted soil by 35 d after incubation regardless of depth. Results indicate that (i) reasonable fate and transport modeling of atrazine will require identifying if soils are adapted to s-triazine herbicides. For example, our data confirm the 60-d T1/2 for atrazine in nonadapted soils, but a default input value of 6 d for atrazine is required for s-triazine adapted soils. (ii) Literature estimates for DEA, DIA, and HA T1/2 values in nonadapted soils are 52, 36, and 60 d, respectively, whereas our analysis indicates that reasonable T1/2 values for s-triazine-adapted soils are 10 d for DEA, 8 d for DIA, and 6 d for HA. (iii) An estimate for the relative distribution of DIA, DEA, and HA produced in nonadapted soils is 18, 72, and 10% of parent, respectively. In s-triazine-adapted soils, the values were 6, 23, and 71% for DIA, DEA, and HA, respectively. The effects of soil adaptation on metabolite distribution need to be confirmed in field experiments.

Mixed geographically weighted regression (MGWR) model with weighted adaptive bi-square for case of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) in Surakarta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Astuti, H. N.; Saputro, D. R. S.; Susanti, Y.

2017-06-01

MGWR model is combination of linear regression model and geographically weighted regression (GWR) model, therefore, MGWR model could produce parameter estimation that had global parameter estimation, and other parameter that had local parameter in accordance with its observation location. The linkage between locations of the observations expressed in specific weighting that is adaptive bi-square. In this research, we applied MGWR model with weighted adaptive bi-square for case of DHF in Surakarta based on 10 factors (variables) that is supposed to influence the number of people with DHF. The observation unit in the research is 51 urban villages and the variables are number of inhabitants, number of houses, house index, many public places, number of healthy homes, number of Posyandu, area width, level population density, welfare of the family, and high-region. Based on this research, we obtained 51 MGWR models. The MGWR model were divided into 4 groups with significant variable is house index as a global variable, an area width as a local variable and the remaining variables vary in each. Global variables are variables that significantly affect all locations, while local variables are variables that significantly affect a specific location.

A fuzzy adaptive network approach to parameter estimation in cases where independent variables come from an exponential distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dalkilic, Turkan Erbay; Apaydin, Aysen

2009-11-01

In a regression analysis, it is assumed that the observations come from a single class in a data cluster and the simple functional relationship between the dependent and independent variables can be expressed using the general model; Y=f(X)+[epsilon]. However; a data cluster may consist of a combination of observations that have different distributions that are derived from different clusters. When faced with issues of estimating a regression model for fuzzy inputs that have been derived from different distributions, this regression model has been termed the [`]switching regression model' and it is expressed with . Here li indicates the class number of each independent variable and p is indicative of the number of independent variables [J.R. Jang, ANFIS: Adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system, IEEE Transaction on Systems, Man and Cybernetics 23 (3) (1993) 665-685; M. Michel, Fuzzy clustering and switching regression models using ambiguity and distance rejects, Fuzzy Sets and Systems 122 (2001) 363-399; E.Q. Richard, A new approach to estimating switching regressions, Journal of the American Statistical Association 67 (338) (1972) 306-310]. In this study, adaptive networks have been used to construct a model that has been formed by gathering obtained models. There are methods that suggest the class numbers of independent variables heuristically. Alternatively, in defining the optimal class number of independent variables, the use of suggested validity criterion for fuzzy clustering has been aimed. In the case that independent variables have an exponential distribution, an algorithm has been suggested for defining the unknown parameter of the switching regression model and for obtaining the estimated values after obtaining an optimal membership function, which is suitable for exponential distribution.

Adaptive robust motion trajectory tracking control of pneumatic cylinders with LuGre model-based friction compensation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meng, Deyuan; Tao, Guoliang; Liu, Hao; Zhu, Xiaocong

2014-07-01

Friction compensation is particularly important for motion trajectory tracking control of pneumatic cylinders at low speed movement. However, most of the existing model-based friction compensation schemes use simple classical models, which are not enough to address applications with high-accuracy position requirements. Furthermore, the friction force in the cylinder is time-varying, and there exist rather severe unmodelled dynamics and unknown disturbances in the pneumatic system. To deal with these problems effectively, an adaptive robust controller with LuGre model-based dynamic friction compensation is constructed. The proposed controller employs on-line recursive least squares estimation (RLSE) to reduce the extent of parametric uncertainties, and utilizes the sliding mode control method to attenuate the effects of parameter estimation errors, unmodelled dynamics and disturbances. In addition, in order to realize LuGre model-based friction compensation, the modified dual-observer structure for estimating immeasurable friction internal state is developed. Therefore, a prescribed motion tracking transient performance and final tracking accuracy can be guaranteed. Since the system model uncertainties are unmatched, the recursive backstepping design technology is applied. In order to solve the conflicts between the sliding mode control design and the adaptive control design, the projection mapping is used to condition the RLSE algorithm so that the parameter estimates are kept within a known bounded convex set. Finally, the proposed controller is tested for tracking sinusoidal trajectories and smooth square trajectory under different loads and sudden disturbance. The testing results demonstrate that the achievable performance of the proposed controller is excellent and is much better than most other studies in literature. Especially when a 0.5 Hz sinusoidal trajectory is tracked, the maximum tracking error is 0.96 mm and the average tracking error is 0.45 mm. This paper constructs an adaptive robust controller which can compensate the friction force in the cylinder.

Introduction to Fuzzy Set Theory

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kosko, Bart

1990-01-01

An introduction to fuzzy set theory is described. Topics covered include: neural networks and fuzzy systems; the dynamical systems approach to machine intelligence; intelligent behavior as adaptive model-free estimation; fuzziness versus probability; fuzzy sets; the entropy-subsethood theorem; adaptive fuzzy systems for backing up a truck-and-trailer; product-space clustering with differential competitive learning; and adaptive fuzzy system for target tracking.

Digital adaptive controllers for VTOL vehicles. Volume 2: Software documentation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hartmann, G. L.; Stein, G.; Pratt, S. G.

1979-01-01

The VTOL approach and landing test (VALT) adaptive software is documented. Two self-adaptive algorithms, one based on an implicit model reference design and the other on an explicit parameter estimation technique were evaluated. The organization of the software, user options, and a nominal set of input data are presented along with a flow chart and program listing of each algorithm.

Demosaicking of noisy Bayer-sampled color images with least-squares luma-chroma demultiplexing and noise level estimation.

PubMed

Jeon, Gwanggil; Dubois, Eric

2013-01-01

This paper adapts the least-squares luma-chroma demultiplexing (LSLCD) demosaicking method to noisy Bayer color filter array (CFA) images. A model is presented for the noise in white-balanced gamma-corrected CFA images. A method to estimate the noise level in each of the red, green, and blue color channels is then developed. Based on the estimated noise parameters, one of a finite set of configurations adapted to a particular level of noise is selected to demosaic the noisy data. The noise-adaptive demosaicking scheme is called LSLCD with noise estimation (LSLCD-NE). Experimental results demonstrate state-of-the-art performance over a wide range of noise levels, with low computational complexity. Many results with several algorithms, noise levels, and images are presented on our companion web site along with software to allow reproduction of our results.

Bayesian Analysis for Exponential Random Graph Models Using the Adaptive Exchange Sampler.

PubMed

Jin, Ick Hoon; Yuan, Ying; Liang, Faming

2013-10-01

Exponential random graph models have been widely used in social network analysis. However, these models are extremely difficult to handle from a statistical viewpoint, because of the intractable normalizing constant and model degeneracy. In this paper, we consider a fully Bayesian analysis for exponential random graph models using the adaptive exchange sampler, which solves the intractable normalizing constant and model degeneracy issues encountered in Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations. The adaptive exchange sampler can be viewed as a MCMC extension of the exchange algorithm, and it generates auxiliary networks via an importance sampling procedure from an auxiliary Markov chain running in parallel. The convergence of this algorithm is established under mild conditions. The adaptive exchange sampler is illustrated using a few social networks, including the Florentine business network, molecule synthetic network, and dolphins network. The results indicate that the adaptive exchange algorithm can produce more accurate estimates than approximate exchange algorithms, while maintaining the same computational efficiency.

Developing a Fundamental Model for an Integrated GPS/INS State Estimation System with Kalman Filtering

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Canfield, Stephen

1999-01-01

This work will demonstrate the integration of sensor and system dynamic data and their appropriate models using an optimal filter to create a robust, adaptable, easily reconfigurable state (motion) estimation system. This state estimation system will clearly show the application of fundamental modeling and filtering techniques. These techniques are presented at a general, first principles level, that can easily be adapted to specific applications. An example of such an application is demonstrated through the development of an integrated GPS/INS navigation system. This system acquires both global position data and inertial body data, to provide optimal estimates of current position and attitude states. The optimal states are estimated using a Kalman filter. The state estimation system will include appropriate error models for the measurement hardware. The results of this work will lead to the development of a "black-box" state estimation system that supplies current motion information (position and attitude states) that can be used to carry out guidance and control strategies. This black-box state estimation system is developed independent of the vehicle dynamics and therefore is directly applicable to a variety of vehicles. Issues in system modeling and application of Kalman filtering techniques are investigated and presented. These issues include linearized models of equations of state, models of the measurement sensors, and appropriate application and parameter setting (tuning) of the Kalman filter. The general model and subsequent algorithm is developed in Matlab for numerical testing. The results of this system are demonstrated through application to data from the X-33 Michael's 9A8 mission and are presented in plots and simple animations.

Distinguishing Antimicrobial Models with Different Resistance Mechanisms via Population Pharmacodynamic Modeling

PubMed Central

Jacobs, Matthieu; Grégoire, Nicolas; Couet, William; Bulitta, Jurgen B.

2016-01-01

Semi-mechanistic pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PK-PD) modeling is increasingly used for antimicrobial drug development and optimization of dosage regimens, but systematic simulation-estimation studies to distinguish between competing PD models are lacking. This study compared the ability of static and dynamic in vitro infection models to distinguish between models with different resistance mechanisms and support accurate and precise parameter estimation. Monte Carlo simulations (MCS) were performed for models with one susceptible bacterial population without (M1) or with a resting stage (M2), a one population model with adaptive resistance (M5), models with pre-existing susceptible and resistant populations without (M3) or with (M4) inter-conversion, and a model with two pre-existing populations with adaptive resistance (M6). For each model, 200 datasets of the total bacterial population were simulated over 24h using static antibiotic concentrations (256-fold concentration range) or over 48h under dynamic conditions (dosing every 12h; elimination half-life: 1h). Twelve-hundred random datasets (each containing 20 curves for static or four curves for dynamic conditions) were generated by bootstrapping. Each dataset was estimated by all six models via population PD modeling to compare bias and precision. For M1 and M3, most parameter estimates were unbiased (<10%) and had good imprecision (<30%). However, parameters for adaptive resistance and inter-conversion for M2, M4, M5 and M6 had poor bias and large imprecision under static and dynamic conditions. For datasets that only contained viable counts of the total population, common statistical criteria and diagnostic plots did not support sound identification of the true resistance mechanism. Therefore, it seems advisable to quantify resistant bacteria and characterize their MICs and resistance mechanisms to support extended simulations and translate from in vitro experiments to animal infection models and ultimately patients. PMID:26967893

Preliminary Exploration of Adaptive State Predictor Based Human Operator Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Trujillo, Anna C.; Gregory, Irene M.

2012-01-01

Control-theoretic modeling of the human operator dynamic behavior in manual control tasks has a long and rich history. In the last two decades, there has been a renewed interest in modeling the human operator. There has also been significant work on techniques used to identify the pilot model of a given structure. The purpose of this research is to attempt to go beyond pilot identification based on collected experimental data and to develop a predictor of pilot behavior. An experiment was conducted to quantify the effects of changing aircraft dynamics on an operator s ability to track a signal in order to eventually model a pilot adapting to changing aircraft dynamics. A gradient descent estimator and a least squares estimator with exponential forgetting used these data to predict pilot stick input. The results indicate that individual pilot characteristics and vehicle dynamics did not affect the accuracy of either estimator method to estimate pilot stick input. These methods also were able to predict pilot stick input during changing aircraft dynamics and they may have the capability to detect a change in a subject due to workload, engagement, etc., or the effects of changes in vehicle dynamics on the pilot.

Integrating Growth Variability of the Ilium, Fifth Lumbar Vertebra, and Clavicle with Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines Models for Subadult Age Estimation.

PubMed

Corron, Louise; Marchal, François; Condemi, Silvana; Telmon, Norbert; Chaumoitre, Kathia; Adalian, Pascal

2018-05-31

Subadult age estimation should rely on sampling and statistical protocols capturing development variability for more accurate age estimates. In this perspective, measurements were taken on the fifth lumbar vertebrae and/or clavicles of 534 French males and females aged 0-19 years and the ilia of 244 males and females aged 0-12 years. These variables were fitted in nonparametric multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) models with 95% prediction intervals (PIs) of age. The models were tested on two independent samples from Marseille and the Luis Lopes reference collection from Lisbon. Models using ilium width and module, maximum clavicle length, and lateral vertebral body heights were more than 92% accurate. Precision was lower for postpubertal individuals. Integrating punctual nonlinearities of the relationship between age and the variables and dynamic prediction intervals incorporated the normal increase in interindividual growth variability (heteroscedasticity of variance) with age for more biologically accurate predictions. © 2018 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

Estimation of images degraded by film-grain noise.

PubMed

Naderi, F; Sawchuk, A A

1978-04-15

Film-grain noise describes the intrinsic noise produced by a photographic emulsion during the process of image recording and reproduction. In this paper we consider the restoration of images degraded by film-grain noise. First a detailed model for the over-all photographic imaging system is presented. The model includes linear blurring effects and the signal-dependent effect of film-grain noise. The accuracy of this model is tested by simulating images according to it and comparing the results to images of similar targets that were actually recorded on film. The restoration of images degraded by film-grain noise is then considered in the context of estimation theory. A discrete Wiener filer is developed which explicitly allows for the signal dependence of the noise. The filter adaptively alters its characteristics based on the nonstationary first order statistics of an image and is shown to have advantages over the conventional Wiener filter. Experimental results for modeling and the adaptive estimation filter are presented.

Adaptive Elastic Net for Generalized Methods of Moments.

PubMed

Caner, Mehmet; Zhang, Hao Helen

2014-01-30

Model selection and estimation are crucial parts of econometrics. This paper introduces a new technique that can simultaneously estimate and select the model in generalized method of moments (GMM) context. The GMM is particularly powerful for analyzing complex data sets such as longitudinal and panel data, and it has wide applications in econometrics. This paper extends the least squares based adaptive elastic net estimator of Zou and Zhang (2009) to nonlinear equation systems with endogenous variables. The extension is not trivial and involves a new proof technique due to estimators lack of closed form solutions. Compared to Bridge-GMM of Caner (2009), we allow for the number of parameters to diverge to infinity as well as collinearity among a large number of variables, also the redundant parameters set to zero via a data dependent technique. This method has the oracle property, meaning that we can estimate nonzero parameters with their standard limit and the redundant parameters are dropped from the equations simultaneously. Numerical examples are used to illustrate the performance of the new method.

Dynamic Experiment Design Regularization Approach to Adaptive Imaging with Array Radar/SAR Sensor Systems

PubMed Central

Shkvarko, Yuriy; Tuxpan, José; Santos, Stewart

2011-01-01

We consider a problem of high-resolution array radar/SAR imaging formalized in terms of a nonlinear ill-posed inverse problem of nonparametric estimation of the power spatial spectrum pattern (SSP) of the random wavefield scattered from a remotely sensed scene observed through a kernel signal formation operator and contaminated with random Gaussian noise. First, the Sobolev-type solution space is constructed to specify the class of consistent kernel SSP estimators with the reproducing kernel structures adapted to the metrics in such the solution space. Next, the “model-free” variational analysis (VA)-based image enhancement approach and the “model-based” descriptive experiment design (DEED) regularization paradigm are unified into a new dynamic experiment design (DYED) regularization framework. Application of the proposed DYED framework to the adaptive array radar/SAR imaging problem leads to a class of two-level (DEED-VA) regularized SSP reconstruction techniques that aggregate the kernel adaptive anisotropic windowing with the projections onto convex sets to enforce the consistency and robustness of the overall iterative SSP estimators. We also show how the proposed DYED regularization method may be considered as a generalization of the MVDR, APES and other high-resolution nonparametric adaptive radar sensing techniques. A family of the DYED-related algorithms is constructed and their effectiveness is finally illustrated via numerical simulations. PMID:22163859

Efficacy of adaptation measures to future water scarcity on a global scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoshikawa, S.; Kanae, S.

2015-12-01

Water supply sources for all sector are critically important for agricultural and industrial productivity. The current rapid increase in water use is considered unsustainable and threatens human life. In our previous study (Yoshikawa et al., 2014 in HESS), we estimated the time-varying dependence of water requirements from water supply sources during past and future periods using the global water resources model, H08. The sources of water requirements were specified using four categories: rivers, large reservoirs, medium-size reservoirs, and non-local non-renewable blue water (NNBW). We also estimated ΔNNBW which is defined as an increase in NNBW from the past to the future. From the results, we could require the further development of water supply sources in order to sustain future water use. For coping with water scarcity using ΔNNBW, there is need for adaptation measure. To address adaptation measures, we need to set adaptation options which can be divided between 'Supply enhancement' and 'Demand management'. The supply enhancement includes increased storage, groundwater development, inter-basin transfer, desalination and re-use urban waste water. Demand management is defined as a set of actions controlling water demand by reducing water loss, increasing water productivity, and water re-allocation. In this study, we focus on estimating further future water demand under taking into account of several adaptation measures using H08 model.

Application of Adaptive DP-optimality to Design a Pilot Study for a Clotting Time Test for Enoxaparin.

PubMed

Gulati, Abhishek; Faed, James M; Isbister, Geoffrey K; Duffull, Stephen B

2015-10-01

Dosing of enoxaparin, like other anticoagulants, may result in bleeding following excessive doses and clot formation if the dose is too low. We recently showed that a factor Xa based clotting time test could potentially assess the effect of enoxaparin on the clotting system. However, the test did not perform well in subsequent individuals and effectiveness of an exogenous phospholipid, Actin FS, in reducing the variability in the clotting time was assessed. The aim of this work was to conduct an adaptive pilot study to determine the range of concentrations of Xa and Actin FS to take forward into a proof-of-concept study. A nonlinear parametric function was developed to describe the response surface over the factors of interest. An adaptive method was used to estimate the parameters using a D-optimal design criterion. In order to provide a reasonable probability of observing a success of the clotting time test, a P-optimal design criterion was incorporated using a loss function to describe the hybrid DP-optimality. The use of adaptive DP-optimality method resulted in an efficient estimation of model parameters using data from only 6 healthy volunteers. The use of response surface modelling identified a range of sets of Xa and Actin FS concentrations, any of which could be used for the proof-of-concept study. This study shows that parsimonious adaptive DP-optimal designs may provide both precise parameter estimates for response surface modelling as well as clinical confidence in the potential benefits of the study.

Restricted Complexity Framework for Nonlinear Adaptive Control in Complex Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, Rube B.

2004-02-01

Control law adaptation that includes implicit or explicit adaptive state estimation, can be a fundamental underpinning for the success of intelligent control in complex systems, particularly during subsystem failures, where vital system states and parameters can be impractical or impossible to measure directly. A practical algorithm is proposed for adaptive state filtering and control in nonlinear dynamic systems when the state equations are unknown or are too complex to model analytically. The state equations and inverse plant model are approximated by using neural networks. A framework for a neural network based nonlinear dynamic inversion control law is proposed, as an extrapolation of prior developed restricted complexity methodology used to formulate the adaptive state filter. Examples of adaptive filter performance are presented for an SSME simulation with high pressure turbine failure to support extrapolations to adaptive control problems.

Robust adaptive vibration control of a flexible structure.

PubMed

Khoshnood, A M; Moradi, H M

2014-07-01

Different types of L1 adaptive control systems show that using robust theories with adaptive control approaches has produced high performance controllers. In this study, a model reference adaptive control scheme considering robust theories is used to propose a practical control system for vibration suppression of a flexible launch vehicle (FLV). In this method, control input of the system is shaped from the dynamic model of the vehicle and components of the control input are adaptively constructed by estimating the undesirable vibration frequencies. Robust stability of the adaptive vibration control system is guaranteed by using the L1 small gain theorem. Simulation results of the robust adaptive vibration control strategy confirm that the effects of vibration on the vehicle performance considerably decrease without the loss of the phase margin of the system. Copyright © 2014 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Adaptive reduction of constitutive model-form error using a posteriori error estimation techniques

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bishop, Joseph E.; Brown, Judith Alice

In engineering practice, models are typically kept as simple as possible for ease of setup and use, computational efficiency, maintenance, and overall reduced complexity to achieve robustness. In solid mechanics, a simple and efficient constitutive model may be favored over one that is more predictive, but is difficult to parameterize, is computationally expensive, or is simply not available within a simulation tool. In order to quantify the modeling error due to the choice of a relatively simple and less predictive constitutive model, we adopt the use of a posteriori model-form error-estimation techniques. Based on local error indicators in the energymore » norm, an algorithm is developed for reducing the modeling error by spatially adapting the material parameters in the simpler constitutive model. The resulting material parameters are not material properties per se, but depend on the given boundary-value problem. As a first step to the more general nonlinear case, we focus here on linear elasticity in which the “complex” constitutive model is general anisotropic elasticity and the chosen simpler model is isotropic elasticity. As a result, the algorithm for adaptive error reduction is demonstrated using two examples: (1) A transversely-isotropic plate with hole subjected to tension, and (2) a transversely-isotropic tube with two side holes subjected to torsion.« less

Adaptive reduction of constitutive model-form error using a posteriori error estimation techniques

DOE PAGES

Bishop, Joseph E.; Brown, Judith Alice

2018-06-15

In engineering practice, models are typically kept as simple as possible for ease of setup and use, computational efficiency, maintenance, and overall reduced complexity to achieve robustness. In solid mechanics, a simple and efficient constitutive model may be favored over one that is more predictive, but is difficult to parameterize, is computationally expensive, or is simply not available within a simulation tool. In order to quantify the modeling error due to the choice of a relatively simple and less predictive constitutive model, we adopt the use of a posteriori model-form error-estimation techniques. Based on local error indicators in the energymore » norm, an algorithm is developed for reducing the modeling error by spatially adapting the material parameters in the simpler constitutive model. The resulting material parameters are not material properties per se, but depend on the given boundary-value problem. As a first step to the more general nonlinear case, we focus here on linear elasticity in which the “complex” constitutive model is general anisotropic elasticity and the chosen simpler model is isotropic elasticity. As a result, the algorithm for adaptive error reduction is demonstrated using two examples: (1) A transversely-isotropic plate with hole subjected to tension, and (2) a transversely-isotropic tube with two side holes subjected to torsion.« less

The Study and Design of Adaptive Learning System Based on Fuzzy Set Theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jia, Bing; Zhong, Shaochun; Zheng, Tianyang; Liu, Zhiyong

Adaptive learning is an effective way to improve the learning outcomes, that is, the selection of learning content and presentation should be adapted to each learner's learning context, learning levels and learning ability. Adaptive Learning System (ALS) can provide effective support for adaptive learning. This paper proposes a new ALS based on fuzzy set theory. It can effectively estimate the learner's knowledge level by test according to learner's target. Then take the factors of learner's cognitive ability and preference into consideration to achieve self-organization and push plan of knowledge. This paper focuses on the design and implementation of domain model and user model in ALS. Experiments confirmed that the system providing adaptive content can effectively help learners to memory the content and improve their comprehension.

Reliable video transmission over fading channels via channel state estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumwilaisak, Wuttipong; Kim, JongWon; Kuo, C.-C. Jay

2000-04-01

Transmission of continuous media such as video over time- varying wireless communication channels can benefit from the use of adaptation techniques in both source and channel coding. An adaptive feedback-based wireless video transmission scheme is investigated in this research with special emphasis on feedback-based adaptation. To be more specific, an interactive adaptive transmission scheme is developed by letting the receiver estimate the channel state information and send it back to the transmitter. By utilizing the feedback information, the transmitter is capable of adapting the level of protection by changing the flexible RCPC (rate-compatible punctured convolutional) code ratio depending on the instantaneous channel condition. The wireless channel is modeled as a fading channel, where the long-term and short- term fading effects are modeled as the log-normal fading and the Rayleigh flat fading, respectively. Then, its state (mainly the long term fading portion) is tracked and predicted by using an adaptive LMS (least mean squares) algorithm. By utilizing the delayed feedback on the channel condition, the adaptation performance of the proposed scheme is first evaluated in terms of the error probability and the throughput. It is then extended to incorporate variable size packets of ITU-T H.263+ video with the error resilience option. Finally, the end-to-end performance of wireless video transmission is compared against several non-adaptive protection schemes.

Convex Banding of the Covariance Matrix

PubMed Central

Bien, Jacob; Bunea, Florentina; Xiao, Luo

2016-01-01

We introduce a new sparse estimator of the covariance matrix for high-dimensional models in which the variables have a known ordering. Our estimator, which is the solution to a convex optimization problem, is equivalently expressed as an estimator which tapers the sample covariance matrix by a Toeplitz, sparsely-banded, data-adaptive matrix. As a result of this adaptivity, the convex banding estimator enjoys theoretical optimality properties not attained by previous banding or tapered estimators. In particular, our convex banding estimator is minimax rate adaptive in Frobenius and operator norms, up to log factors, over commonly-studied classes of covariance matrices, and over more general classes. Furthermore, it correctly recovers the bandwidth when the true covariance is exactly banded. Our convex formulation admits a simple and efficient algorithm. Empirical studies demonstrate its practical effectiveness and illustrate that our exactly-banded estimator works well even when the true covariance matrix is only close to a banded matrix, confirming our theoretical results. Our method compares favorably with all existing methods, in terms of accuracy and speed. We illustrate the practical merits of the convex banding estimator by showing that it can be used to improve the performance of discriminant analysis for classifying sound recordings. PMID:28042189

Convex Banding of the Covariance Matrix.

PubMed

Bien, Jacob; Bunea, Florentina; Xiao, Luo

2016-01-01

We introduce a new sparse estimator of the covariance matrix for high-dimensional models in which the variables have a known ordering. Our estimator, which is the solution to a convex optimization problem, is equivalently expressed as an estimator which tapers the sample covariance matrix by a Toeplitz, sparsely-banded, data-adaptive matrix. As a result of this adaptivity, the convex banding estimator enjoys theoretical optimality properties not attained by previous banding or tapered estimators. In particular, our convex banding estimator is minimax rate adaptive in Frobenius and operator norms, up to log factors, over commonly-studied classes of covariance matrices, and over more general classes. Furthermore, it correctly recovers the bandwidth when the true covariance is exactly banded. Our convex formulation admits a simple and efficient algorithm. Empirical studies demonstrate its practical effectiveness and illustrate that our exactly-banded estimator works well even when the true covariance matrix is only close to a banded matrix, confirming our theoretical results. Our method compares favorably with all existing methods, in terms of accuracy and speed. We illustrate the practical merits of the convex banding estimator by showing that it can be used to improve the performance of discriminant analysis for classifying sound recordings.

Angular-contact ball-bearing internal load estimation algorithm using runtime adaptive relaxation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Medina, H.; Mutu, R.

2017-07-01

An algorithm to estimate internal loads for single-row angular contact ball bearings due to externally applied thrust loads and high-operating speeds is presented. A new runtime adaptive relaxation procedure and blending function is proposed which ensures algorithm stability whilst also reducing the number of iterations needed to reach convergence, leading to an average reduction in computation time in excess of approximately 80%. The model is validated based on a 218 angular contact bearing and shows excellent agreement compared to published results.

An Adaptive Nonlinear Aircraft Maneuvering Envelope Estimation Approach for Online Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schuet, Stefan R.; Lombaerts, Thomas Jan; Acosta, Diana; Wheeler, Kevin; Kaneshige, John

2014-01-01

A nonlinear aircraft model is presented and used to develop an overall unified robust and adaptive approach to passive trim and maneuverability envelope estimation with uncertainty quantification. The concept of time scale separation makes this method suitable for the online characterization of altered safe maneuvering limitations after impairment. The results can be used to provide pilot feedback and/or be combined with flight planning, trajectory generation, and guidance algorithms to help maintain safe aircraft operations in both nominal and off-nominal scenarios.

Adaptive back-stepping control of the harmonic drive system with LuGre model-based friction compensation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Sen; Gang, Tieqiang

2018-03-01

Harmonic drives are widely used in aerospace and industrial robots. Flexibility, friction and parameter uncertainty will result in transmission performance degradation. In this paper, an adaptive back-stepping method with friction compensation is proposed to improve the tracking performance of the harmonic drive system. The nonlinear friction is described by LuGre model and compensated with a friction observer, and the uncertainty of model parameters is resolved by adaptive parameter estimation method. By using Lyapunov stability theory, it is proved that all the errors of the closed-loop system are uniformly ultimately bounded. Simulations illustrate the effectiveness of our friction compensation method.

Distributed Damage Estimation for Prognostics based on Structural Model Decomposition

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Daigle, Matthew; Bregon, Anibal; Roychoudhury, Indranil

2011-01-01

Model-based prognostics approaches capture system knowledge in the form of physics-based models of components, and how they fail. These methods consist of a damage estimation phase, in which the health state of a component is estimated, and a prediction phase, in which the health state is projected forward in time to determine end of life. However, the damage estimation problem is often multi-dimensional and computationally intensive. We propose a model decomposition approach adapted from the diagnosis community, called possible conflicts, in order to both improve the computational efficiency of damage estimation, and formulate a damage estimation approach that is inherently distributed. Local state estimates are combined into a global state estimate from which prediction is performed. Using a centrifugal pump as a case study, we perform a number of simulation-based experiments to demonstrate the approach.

Item Response Theory with Estimation of the Latent Density Using Davidian Curves

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Woods, Carol M.; Lin, Nan

2009-01-01

Davidian-curve item response theory (DC-IRT) is introduced, evaluated with simulations, and illustrated using data from the Schedule for Nonadaptive and Adaptive Personality Entitlement scale. DC-IRT is a method for fitting unidimensional IRT models with maximum marginal likelihood estimation, in which the latent density is estimated,…

Robust fundamental frequency estimation in sustained vowels: Detailed algorithmic comparisons and information fusion with adaptive Kalman filtering

PubMed Central

Tsanas, Athanasios; Zañartu, Matías; Little, Max A.; Fox, Cynthia; Ramig, Lorraine O.; Clifford, Gari D.

2014-01-01

There has been consistent interest among speech signal processing researchers in the accurate estimation of the fundamental frequency (F0) of speech signals. This study examines ten F0 estimation algorithms (some well-established and some proposed more recently) to determine which of these algorithms is, on average, better able to estimate F0 in the sustained vowel /a/. Moreover, a robust method for adaptively weighting the estimates of individual F0 estimation algorithms based on quality and performance measures is proposed, using an adaptive Kalman filter (KF) framework. The accuracy of the algorithms is validated using (a) a database of 117 synthetic realistic phonations obtained using a sophisticated physiological model of speech production and (b) a database of 65 recordings of human phonations where the glottal cycles are calculated from electroglottograph signals. On average, the sawtooth waveform inspired pitch estimator and the nearly defect-free algorithms provided the best individual F0 estimates, and the proposed KF approach resulted in a ∼16% improvement in accuracy over the best single F0 estimation algorithm. These findings may be useful in speech signal processing applications where sustained vowels are used to assess vocal quality, when very accurate F0 estimation is required. PMID:24815269

System health monitoring using multiple-model adaptive estimation techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sifford, Stanley Ryan

Monitoring system health for fault detection and diagnosis by tracking system parameters concurrently with state estimates is approached using a new multiple-model adaptive estimation (MMAE) method. This novel method is called GRid-based Adaptive Parameter Estimation (GRAPE). GRAPE expands existing MMAE methods by using new techniques to sample the parameter space. GRAPE expands on MMAE with the hypothesis that sample models can be applied and resampled without relying on a predefined set of models. GRAPE is initially implemented in a linear framework using Kalman filter models. A more generalized GRAPE formulation is presented using extended Kalman filter (EKF) models to represent nonlinear systems. GRAPE can handle both time invariant and time varying systems as it is designed to track parameter changes. Two techniques are presented to generate parameter samples for the parallel filter models. The first approach is called selected grid-based stratification (SGBS). SGBS divides the parameter space into equally spaced strata. The second approach uses Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) to determine the parameter locations and minimize the total number of required models. LHS is particularly useful when the parameter dimensions grow. Adding more parameters does not require the model count to increase for LHS. Each resample is independent of the prior sample set other than the location of the parameter estimate. SGBS and LHS can be used for both the initial sample and subsequent resamples. Furthermore, resamples are not required to use the same technique. Both techniques are demonstrated for both linear and nonlinear frameworks. The GRAPE framework further formalizes the parameter tracking process through a general approach for nonlinear systems. These additional methods allow GRAPE to either narrow the focus to converged values within a parameter range or expand the range in the appropriate direction to track the parameters outside the current parameter range boundary. Customizable rules define the specific resample behavior when the GRAPE parameter estimates converge. Convergence itself is determined from the derivatives of the parameter estimates using a simple moving average window to filter out noise. The system can be tuned to match the desired performance goals by making adjustments to parameters such as the sample size, convergence criteria, resample criteria, initial sampling method, resampling method, confidence in prior sample covariances, sample delay, and others.

Processing arctic eddy-flux data using a simple carbon-exchange model embedded in the ensemble Kalman filter.

PubMed

Rastetter, Edward B; Williams, Mathew; Griffin, Kevin L; Kwiatkowski, Bonnie L; Tomasky, Gabrielle; Potosnak, Mark J; Stoy, Paul C; Shaver, Gaius R; Stieglitz, Marc; Hobbie, John E; Kling, George W

2010-07-01

Continuous time-series estimates of net ecosystem carbon exchange (NEE) are routinely made using eddy covariance techniques. Identifying and compensating for errors in the NEE time series can be automated using a signal processing filter like the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). The EnKF compares each measurement in the time series to a model prediction and updates the NEE estimate by weighting the measurement and model prediction relative to a specified measurement error estimate and an estimate of the model-prediction error that is continuously updated based on model predictions of earlier measurements in the time series. Because of the covariance among model variables, the EnKF can also update estimates of variables for which there is no direct measurement. The resulting estimates evolve through time, enabling the EnKF to be used to estimate dynamic variables like changes in leaf phenology. The evolving estimates can also serve as a means to test the embedded model and reconcile persistent deviations between observations and model predictions. We embedded a simple arctic NEE model into the EnKF and filtered data from an eddy covariance tower located in tussock tundra on the northern foothills of the Brooks Range in northern Alaska, USA. The model predicts NEE based only on leaf area, irradiance, and temperature and has been well corroborated for all the major vegetation types in the Low Arctic using chamber-based data. This is the first application of the model to eddy covariance data. We modified the EnKF by adding an adaptive noise estimator that provides a feedback between persistent model data deviations and the noise added to the ensemble of Monte Carlo simulations in the EnKF. We also ran the EnKF with both a specified leaf-area trajectory and with the EnKF sequentially recalibrating leaf-area estimates to compensate for persistent model-data deviations. When used together, adaptive noise estimation and sequential recalibration substantially improved filter performance, but it did not improve performance when used individually. The EnKF estimates of leaf area followed the expected springtime canopy phenology. However, there were also diel fluctuations in the leaf-area estimates; these are a clear indication of a model deficiency possibly related to vapor pressure effects on canopy conductance.

Nonlinear model predictive control for chemical looping process

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Joshi, Abhinaya; Lei, Hao; Lou, Xinsheng

A control system for optimizing a chemical looping ("CL") plant includes a reduced order mathematical model ("ROM") that is designed by eliminating mathematical terms that have minimal effect on the outcome. A non-linear optimizer provides various inputs to the ROM and monitors the outputs to determine the optimum inputs that are then provided to the CL plant. An estimator estimates the values of various internal state variables of the CL plant. The system has one structure adapted to control a CL plant that only provides pressure measurements in the CL loops A and B, a second structure adapted to amore » CL plant that provides pressure measurements and solid levels in both loops A, and B, and a third structure adapted to control a CL plant that provides full information on internal state variables. A final structure provides a neural network NMPC controller to control operation of loops A and B.« less

Development of adaptive observation strategy using retrospective optimal interpolation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noh, N.; Kim, S.; Song, H.; Lim, G.

2011-12-01

Retrospective optimal interpolation (ROI) is a method that is used to minimize cost functions with multiple minima without using adjoint models. Song and Lim (2011) perform the experiments to reduce the computational costs for implementing ROI by transforming the control variables into eigenvectors of background error covariance. We adapt the ROI algorithm to compute sensitivity estimates of severe weather events over the Korean peninsula. The eigenvectors of the ROI algorithm is modified every time the observations are assimilated. This implies that the modified eigenvectors shows the error distribution of control variables which are updated by assimilating observations. So, We can estimate the effects of the specific observations. In order to verify the adaptive observation strategy, High-impact weather over the Korean peninsula is simulated and interpreted using WRF modeling system and sensitive regions for each high-impact weather is calculated. The effects of assimilation for each observation type is discussed.

Prognoses of diameter and height of trees of eucalyptus using artificial intelligence.

PubMed

Vieira, Giovanni Correia; de Mendonça, Adriano Ribeiro; da Silva, Gilson Fernandes; Zanetti, Sidney Sára; da Silva, Mayra Marques; Dos Santos, Alexandre Rosa

2018-04-01

Models of individual trees are composed of sub-models that generally estimate competition, mortality, and growth in height and diameter of each tree. They are usually adopted when we want more detailed information to estimate forest multiproduct. In these models, estimates of growth in diameter at 1.30m above the ground (DBH) and total height (H) are obtained by regression analysis. Recently, artificial intelligence techniques (AIT) have been used with satisfactory performance in forest measurement. Therefore, the objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of two AIT, artificial neural networks and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system, to estimate the growth in DBH and H of eucalyptus trees. We used data of continuous forest inventories of eucalyptus, with annual measurements of DBH, H, and the dominant height of trees of 398 plots, plus two qualitative variables: genetic material and site index. It was observed that the two AIT showed accuracy in growth estimation of DBH and H. Therefore, the two techniques discussed can be used for the prognosis of DBH and H in even-aged eucalyptus stands. The techniques used could also be adapted to other areas and forest species. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Efficient, adaptive estimation of two-dimensional firing rate surfaces via Gaussian process methods.

PubMed

Rad, Kamiar Rahnama; Paninski, Liam

2010-01-01

Estimating two-dimensional firing rate maps is a common problem, arising in a number of contexts: the estimation of place fields in hippocampus, the analysis of temporally nonstationary tuning curves in sensory and motor areas, the estimation of firing rates following spike-triggered covariance analyses, etc. Here we introduce methods based on Gaussian process nonparametric Bayesian techniques for estimating these two-dimensional rate maps. These techniques offer a number of advantages: the estimates may be computed efficiently, come equipped with natural errorbars, adapt their smoothness automatically to the local density and informativeness of the observed data, and permit direct fitting of the model hyperparameters (e.g., the prior smoothness of the rate map) via maximum marginal likelihood. We illustrate the method's flexibility and performance on a variety of simulated and real data.

Generation of realistic scene using illuminant estimation and mixed chromatic adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Jae-Chul; Hong, Sang-Gi; Kim, Dong-Ho; Park, Jong-Hyun

2003-12-01

The algorithm of combining a real image with a virtual model was proposed to increase the reality of synthesized images. Currently, synthesizing a real image with a virtual model facilitated the surface reflection model and various geometric techniques. In the current methods, the characteristics of various illuminants in the real image are not sufficiently considered. In addition, despite the chromatic adaptation plays a vital role for accommodating different illuminants in the two media viewing conditions, it is not taken into account in the existing methods. Thus, it is hardly to get high-quality synthesized images. In this paper, we proposed the two-phase image synthesis algorithm. First, the surface reflectance of the maximum high-light region (MHR) was estimated using the three eigenvectors obtained from the principal component analysis (PCA) applied to the surface reflectances of 1269 Munsell samples. The combined spectral value, i.e., the product of surface reflectance and the spectral power distributions (SPDs) of an illuminant, of MHR was then estimated using the three eigenvectors obtained from PCA applied to the products of surface reflectances of Munsell 1269 samples and the SPDs of four CIE Standard Illuminants (A, C, D50, D65). By dividing the average combined spectral values of MHR by the average surface reflectances of MHR, we could estimate the illuminant of a real image. Second, the mixed chromatic adaptation (S-LMS) using an estimated and an external illuminants was applied to the virtual-model image. For evaluating the proposed algorithm, experiments with synthetic and real scenes were performed. It was shown that the proposed method was effective in synthesizing the real and the virtual scenes under various illuminants.

Adaptive quantification and longitudinal analysis of pulmonary emphysema with a hidden Markov measure field model.

PubMed

Hame, Yrjo; Angelini, Elsa D; Hoffman, Eric A; Barr, R Graham; Laine, Andrew F

2014-07-01

The extent of pulmonary emphysema is commonly estimated from CT scans by computing the proportional area of voxels below a predefined attenuation threshold. However, the reliability of this approach is limited by several factors that affect the CT intensity distributions in the lung. This work presents a novel method for emphysema quantification, based on parametric modeling of intensity distributions and a hidden Markov measure field model to segment emphysematous regions. The framework adapts to the characteristics of an image to ensure a robust quantification of emphysema under varying CT imaging protocols, and differences in parenchymal intensity distributions due to factors such as inspiration level. Compared to standard approaches, the presented model involves a larger number of parameters, most of which can be estimated from data, to handle the variability encountered in lung CT scans. The method was applied on a longitudinal data set with 87 subjects and a total of 365 scans acquired with varying imaging protocols. The resulting emphysema estimates had very high intra-subject correlation values. By reducing sensitivity to changes in imaging protocol, the method provides a more robust estimate than standard approaches. The generated emphysema delineations promise advantages for regional analysis of emphysema extent and progression.

Numerically accurate computational techniques for optimal estimator analyses of multi-parameter models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berger, Lukas; Kleinheinz, Konstantin; Attili, Antonio; Bisetti, Fabrizio; Pitsch, Heinz; Mueller, Michael E.

2018-05-01

Modelling unclosed terms in partial differential equations typically involves two steps: First, a set of known quantities needs to be specified as input parameters for a model, and second, a specific functional form needs to be defined to model the unclosed terms by the input parameters. Both steps involve a certain modelling error, with the former known as the irreducible error and the latter referred to as the functional error. Typically, only the total modelling error, which is the sum of functional and irreducible error, is assessed, but the concept of the optimal estimator enables the separate analysis of the total and the irreducible errors, yielding a systematic modelling error decomposition. In this work, attention is paid to the techniques themselves required for the practical computation of irreducible errors. Typically, histograms are used for optimal estimator analyses, but this technique is found to add a non-negligible spurious contribution to the irreducible error if models with multiple input parameters are assessed. Thus, the error decomposition of an optimal estimator analysis becomes inaccurate, and misleading conclusions concerning modelling errors may be drawn. In this work, numerically accurate techniques for optimal estimator analyses are identified and a suitable evaluation of irreducible errors is presented. Four different computational techniques are considered: a histogram technique, artificial neural networks, multivariate adaptive regression splines, and an additive model based on a kernel method. For multiple input parameter models, only artificial neural networks and multivariate adaptive regression splines are found to yield satisfactorily accurate results. Beyond a certain number of input parameters, the assessment of models in an optimal estimator analysis even becomes practically infeasible if histograms are used. The optimal estimator analysis in this paper is applied to modelling the filtered soot intermittency in large eddy simulations using a dataset of a direct numerical simulation of a non-premixed sooting turbulent flame.

Bi-Objective Optimal Control Modification Adaptive Control for Systems with Input Uncertainty

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nguyen, Nhan T.

2012-01-01

This paper presents a new model-reference adaptive control method based on a bi-objective optimal control formulation for systems with input uncertainty. A parallel predictor model is constructed to relate the predictor error to the estimation error of the control effectiveness matrix. In this work, we develop an optimal control modification adaptive control approach that seeks to minimize a bi-objective linear quadratic cost function of both the tracking error norm and predictor error norm simultaneously. The resulting adaptive laws for the parametric uncertainty and control effectiveness uncertainty are dependent on both the tracking error and predictor error, while the adaptive laws for the feedback gain and command feedforward gain are only dependent on the tracking error. The optimal control modification term provides robustness to the adaptive laws naturally from the optimal control framework. Simulations demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed adaptive control approach.

On-line estimation of error covariance parameters for atmospheric data assimilation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dee, Dick P.

1995-01-01

A simple scheme is presented for on-line estimation of covariance parameters in statistical data assimilation systems. The scheme is based on a maximum-likelihood approach in which estimates are produced on the basis of a single batch of simultaneous observations. Simple-sample covariance estimation is reasonable as long as the number of available observations exceeds the number of tunable parameters by two or three orders of magnitude. Not much is known at present about model error associated with actual forecast systems. Our scheme can be used to estimate some important statistical model error parameters such as regionally averaged variances or characteristic correlation length scales. The advantage of the single-sample approach is that it does not rely on any assumptions about the temporal behavior of the covariance parameters: time-dependent parameter estimates can be continuously adjusted on the basis of current observations. This is of practical importance since it is likely to be the case that both model error and observation error strongly depend on the actual state of the atmosphere. The single-sample estimation scheme can be incorporated into any four-dimensional statistical data assimilation system that involves explicit calculation of forecast error covariances, including optimal interpolation (OI) and the simplified Kalman filter (SKF). The computational cost of the scheme is high but not prohibitive; on-line estimation of one or two covariance parameters in each analysis box of an operational bozed-OI system is currently feasible. A number of numerical experiments performed with an adaptive SKF and an adaptive version of OI, using a linear two-dimensional shallow-water model and artificially generated model error are described. The performance of the nonadaptive versions of these methods turns out to depend rather strongly on correct specification of model error parameters. These parameters are estimated under a variety of conditions, including uniformly distributed model error and time-dependent model error statistics.

Real-Time State Estimation and Long-Term Model Adaptation: A Two-Sided Approach toward Personalized Diagnosis of Glucose and Insulin Levels

PubMed Central

Eberle, Claudia; Ament, Christoph

2012-01-01

Background With continuous glucose sensors (CGSs), it is possible to obtain a dynamical signal of the patient’s subcutaneous glucose concentration in real time. How could that information be exploited? We suggest a model-based diagnosis system with a twofold objective: real-time state estimation and long-term model parameter identification. Methods To obtain a dynamical model, Bergman’s nonlinear minimal model (considering plasma glucose G, insulin I, and interstitial insulin X) is extended by two states describing first and second insulin response. Furthermore, compartments for oral glucose and subcutaneous insulin inputs as well as for subcutaneous glucose measurement are added. The observability of states and external inputs as well as the identifiability of model parameters are assessed using the empirical observability Gramian. Signals are estimated for different nondiabetic and diabetic scenarios by unscented Kalman filter. Results (1) Observability of different state subsets is evaluated, e.g., from CGSs, {G, I} or {G, X} can be observed and the set {G, I, X} cannot. (2) Model parameters are included, e.g., it is possible to estimate the second-phase insulin response gain kG2 additionally. This can be used for model adaptation and as a diagnostic parameter that is almost zero for diabetes patients. (3) External inputs are considered, e.g., oral glucose is theoretically observable for nondiabetic patients, but estimation scenarios show that the time delay of 1 h limits application. Conclusions A real-time estimation of states (such as plasma insulin I) and parameters (such as kG2) is possible, which allows an improved real-time state prediction and a personalized model. PMID:23063042

Diversity and disparity through time in the adaptive radiation of Antarctic notothenioid fishes.

PubMed

Colombo, M; Damerau, M; Hanel, R; Salzburger, W; Matschiner, M

2015-02-01

According to theory, adaptive radiation is triggered by ecological opportunity that can arise through the colonization of new habitats, the extinction of antagonists or the origin of key innovations. In the course of an adaptive radiation, diversification and morphological evolution are expected to slow down after an initial phase of rapid adaptation to vacant ecological niches, followed by speciation. Such 'early bursts' of diversification are thought to occur because niche space becomes increasingly filled over time. The diversification of Antarctic notothenioid fishes into over 120 species has become one of the prime examples of adaptive radiation in the marine realm and has likely been triggered by an evolutionary key innovation in the form of the emergence of antifreeze glycoproteins. Here, we test, using a novel time-calibrated phylogeny of 49 species and five traits that characterize notothenioid body size and shape as well as buoyancy adaptations and habitat preferences, whether the notothenioid adaptive radiation is compatible with an early burst scenario. Extensive Bayesian model comparison shows that phylogenetic age estimates are highly dependent on model choice and that models with unlinked gene trees are generally better supported and result in younger age estimates. We find strong evidence for elevated diversification rates in Antarctic notothenioids compared to outgroups, yet no sign of rate heterogeneity in the course of the radiation, except that the notothenioid family Artedidraconidae appears to show secondarily elevated diversification rates. We further observe an early burst in trophic morphology, suggesting that the notothenioid radiation proceeds in stages similar to other prominent examples of adaptive radiation. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Evolutionary Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of European Society for Evolutionary Biology.

Adaptive control of servo system based on LuGre model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jin, Wang; Niancong, Liu; Jianlong, Chen; Weitao, Geng

2018-03-01

This paper established a mechanical model of feed system based on LuGre model. In order to solve the influence of nonlinear factors on the system running stability, a nonlinear single observer is designed to estimate the parameter z in the LuGre model and an adaptive friction compensation controller is designed. Simulink simulation results show that the control method can effectively suppress the adverse effects of friction and external disturbances. The simulation show that the adaptive parameter kz is between 0.11-0.13, and the value of gamma1 is between 1.9-2.1. Position tracking error reaches level 10-3 and is stabilized near 0 values within 0.3 seconds, the compensation method has better tracking accuracy and robustness.

Real-time imaging of human brain function by near-infrared spectroscopy using an adaptive general linear model

PubMed Central

Abdelnour, A. Farras; Huppert, Theodore

2009-01-01

Near-infrared spectroscopy is a non-invasive neuroimaging method which uses light to measure changes in cerebral blood oxygenation associated with brain activity. In this work, we demonstrate the ability to record and analyze images of brain activity in real-time using a 16-channel continuous wave optical NIRS system. We propose a novel real-time analysis framework using an adaptive Kalman filter and a state–space model based on a canonical general linear model of brain activity. We show that our adaptive model has the ability to estimate single-trial brain activity events as we apply this method to track and classify experimental data acquired during an alternating bilateral self-paced finger tapping task. PMID:19457389

Dynamic modeling, property investigation, and adaptive controller design of serial robotic manipulators modeled with structural compliance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tesar, Delbert; Tosunoglu, Sabri; Lin, Shyng-Her

1990-01-01

Research results on general serial robotic manipulators modeled with structural compliances are presented. Two compliant manipulator modeling approaches, distributed and lumped parameter models, are used in this study. System dynamic equations for both compliant models are derived by using the first and second order influence coefficients. Also, the properties of compliant manipulator system dynamics are investigated. One of the properties, which is defined as inaccessibility of vibratory modes, is shown to display a distinct character associated with compliant manipulators. This property indicates the impact of robot geometry on the control of structural oscillations. Example studies are provided to illustrate the physical interpretation of inaccessibility of vibratory modes. Two types of controllers are designed for compliant manipulators modeled by either lumped or distributed parameter techniques. In order to maintain the generality of the results, neither linearization is introduced. Example simulations are given to demonstrate the controller performance. The second type controller is also built for general serial robot arms and is adaptive in nature which can estimate uncertain payload parameters on-line and simultaneously maintain trajectory tracking properties. The relation between manipulator motion tracking capability and convergence of parameter estimation properties is discussed through example case studies. The effect of control input update delays on adaptive controller performance is also studied.

Rotor Position Sensorless Control and Its Parameter Sensitivity of Permanent Magnet Motor Based on Model Reference Adaptive System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ohara, Masaki; Noguchi, Toshihiko

This paper describes a new method for a rotor position sensorless control of a surface permanent magnet synchronous motor based on a model reference adaptive system (MRAS). This method features the MRAS in a current control loop to estimate a rotor speed and position by using only current sensors. This method as well as almost all the conventional methods incorporates a mathematical model of the motor, which consists of parameters such as winding resistances, inductances, and an induced voltage constant. Hence, the important thing is to investigate how the deviation of these parameters affects the estimated rotor position. First, this paper proposes a structure of the sensorless control applied in the current control loop. Next, it proves the stability of the proposed method when motor parameters deviate from the nominal values, and derives the relationship between the estimated position and the deviation of the parameters in a steady state. Finally, some experimental results are presented to show performance and effectiveness of the proposed method.

Modern control concepts in hydrology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Duong, N.; Johnson, G. R.; Winn, C. B.

1974-01-01

Two approaches to an identification problem in hydrology are presented based upon concepts from modern control and estimation theory. The first approach treats the identification of unknown parameters in a hydrologic system subject to noisy inputs as an adaptive linear stochastic control problem; the second approach alters the model equation to account for the random part in the inputs, and then uses a nonlinear estimation scheme to estimate the unknown parameters. Both approaches use state-space concepts. The identification schemes are sequential and adaptive and can handle either time invariant or time dependent parameters. They are used to identify parameters in the Prasad model of rainfall-runoff. The results obtained are encouraging and conform with results from two previous studies; the first using numerical integration of the model equation along with a trial-and-error procedure, and the second, by using a quasi-linearization technique. The proposed approaches offer a systematic way of analyzing the rainfall-runoff process when the input data are imbedded in noise.

Adaptive State Predictor Based Human Operator Modeling on Longitudinal and Lateral Control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Trujillo, Anna C.; Gregory, Irene M.; Hempley, Lucas E.

2015-01-01

Control-theoretic modeling of the human operator dynamic behavior in manual control tasks has a long and rich history. In the last two decades, there has been a renewed interest in modeling the human operator. There has also been significant work on techniques used to identify the pilot model of a given structure. The purpose of this research is to attempt to go beyond pilot identification based on collected experimental data and to develop a predictor of pilot behavior. An experiment was conducted to categorize these interactions of the pilot with an adaptive controller compensating during control surface failures. A general linear in-parameter model structure is used to represent a pilot. Three different estimation methods are explored. A gradient descent estimator (GDE), a least squares estimator with exponential forgetting (LSEEF), and a least squares estimator with bounded gain forgetting (LSEBGF) used the experiment data to predict pilot stick input. Previous results have found that the GDE and LSEEF methods are fairly accurate in predicting longitudinal stick input from commanded pitch. This paper discusses the accuracy of each of the three methods - GDE, LSEEF, and LSEBGF - to predict both pilot longitudinal and lateral stick input from the flight director's commanded pitch and bank attitudes.

Kalman filter estimation of human pilot-model parameters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schiess, J. R.; Roland, V. R.

1975-01-01

The parameters of a human pilot-model transfer function are estimated by applying the extended Kalman filter to the corresponding retarded differential-difference equations in the time domain. Use of computer-generated data indicates that most of the parameters, including the implicit time delay, may be reasonably estimated in this way. When applied to two sets of experimental data obtained from a closed-loop tracking task performed by a human, the Kalman filter generated diverging residuals for one of the measurement types, apparently because of model assumption errors. Application of a modified adaptive technique was found to overcome the divergence and to produce reasonable estimates of most of the parameters.

Considerations about expected a posteriori estimation in adaptive testing: adaptive a priori, adaptive correction for bias, and adaptive integration interval.

PubMed

Raiche, Gilles; Blais, Jean-Guy

2009-01-01

In a computerized adaptive test, we would like to obtain an acceptable precision of the proficiency level estimate using an optimal number of items. Unfortunately, decreasing the number of items is accompanied by a certain degree of bias when the true proficiency level differs significantly from the a priori estimate. The authors suggest that it is possible to reduced the bias, and even the standard error of the estimate, by applying to each provisional estimation one or a combination of the following strategies: adaptive correction for bias proposed by Bock and Mislevy (1982), adaptive a priori estimate, and adaptive integration interval.

Complex Environmental Data Modelling Using Adaptive General Regression Neural Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kanevski, Mikhail

2015-04-01

The research deals with an adaptation and application of Adaptive General Regression Neural Networks (GRNN) to high dimensional environmental data. GRNN [1,2,3] are efficient modelling tools both for spatial and temporal data and are based on nonparametric kernel methods closely related to classical Nadaraya-Watson estimator. Adaptive GRNN, using anisotropic kernels, can be also applied for features selection tasks when working with high dimensional data [1,3]. In the present research Adaptive GRNN are used to study geospatial data predictability and relevant feature selection using both simulated and real data case studies. The original raw data were either three dimensional monthly precipitation data or monthly wind speeds embedded into 13 dimensional space constructed by geographical coordinates and geo-features calculated from digital elevation model. GRNN were applied in two different ways: 1) adaptive GRNN with the resulting list of features ordered according to their relevancy; and 2) adaptive GRNN applied to evaluate all possible models N [in case of wind fields N=(2^13 -1)=8191] and rank them according to the cross-validation error. In both cases training were carried out applying leave-one-out procedure. An important result of the study is that the set of the most relevant features depends on the month (strong seasonal effect) and year. The predictabilities of precipitation and wind field patterns, estimated using the cross-validation and testing errors of raw and shuffled data, were studied in detail. The results of both approaches were qualitatively and quantitatively compared. In conclusion, Adaptive GRNN with their ability to select features and efficient modelling of complex high dimensional data can be widely used in automatic/on-line mapping and as an integrated part of environmental decision support systems. 1. Kanevski M., Pozdnoukhov A., Timonin V. Machine Learning for Spatial Environmental Data. Theory, applications and software. EPFL Press. With a CD: data, software, guides. (2009). 2. Kanevski M. Spatial Predictions of Soil Contamination Using General Regression Neural Networks. Systems Research and Information Systems, Volume 8, number 4, 1999. 3. Robert S., Foresti L., Kanevski M. Spatial prediction of monthly wind speeds in complex terrain with adaptive general regression neural networks. International Journal of Climatology, 33 pp. 1793-1804, 2013.

Using AQUACROP to model the impacts of future climates on crop production and possible adaptation strategies in Sardinia and Tunisia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bird, Neil; Benabdallah, Sihem; Gouda, Nadine; Hummel, Franz; La Jeunesse, Isabelle; Meyer, Swen; Soddu, Antonino; Woess-Gallasch, Susanne

2014-05-01

A work package in the FP-7 funded CLIMB Project - Climate Induced Changes on the Hydrology of Mediterranean Basins Reducing Uncertainty and Quantifying Risk through an Integrated Monitoring and Modeling System had the goal of assessing socioeconomic vulnerability in two super-sites in future climates (2040-2070). The work package had deliverables to describe of agricultural adaptation measures appropriate to each site under future water availability scenarios and assess the risk of income losses due to water shortages in agriculture. The FAO model AQUACROP was used to estimate losses of agricultural productivity and indicate possible adaptation strategies. The presentation will focus on two interesting crops which show extreme vulnerability to expected changes in climate; irrigated lettuce in Sardinia and irrigated tomatoes in Tunisia. Modelling methodology, results and possible adaptation strategies will be presented.

Surrogate Based Uni/Multi-Objective Optimization and Distribution Estimation Methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gong, W.; Duan, Q.; Huo, X.

2017-12-01

Parameter calibration has been demonstrated as an effective way to improve the performance of dynamic models, such as hydrological models, land surface models, weather and climate models etc. Traditional optimization algorithms usually cost a huge number of model evaluations, making dynamic model calibration very difficult, or even computationally prohibitive. With the help of a serious of recently developed adaptive surrogate-modelling based optimization methods: uni-objective optimization method ASMO, multi-objective optimization method MO-ASMO, and probability distribution estimation method ASMO-PODE, the number of model evaluations can be significantly reduced to several hundreds, making it possible to calibrate very expensive dynamic models, such as regional high resolution land surface models, weather forecast models such as WRF, and intermediate complexity earth system models such as LOVECLIM. This presentation provides a brief introduction to the common framework of adaptive surrogate-based optimization algorithms of ASMO, MO-ASMO and ASMO-PODE, a case study of Common Land Model (CoLM) calibration in Heihe river basin in Northwest China, and an outlook of the potential applications of the surrogate-based optimization methods.

The Effects of Climate Model Similarity on Local, Risk-Based Adaptation Planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steinschneider, S.; Brown, C. M.

2014-12-01

The climate science community has recently proposed techniques to develop probabilistic projections of climate change from ensemble climate model output. These methods provide a means to incorporate the formal concept of risk, i.e., the product of impact and probability, into long-term planning assessments for local systems under climate change. However, approaches for pdf development often assume that different climate models provide independent information for the estimation of probabilities, despite model similarities that stem from a common genealogy. Here we utilize an ensemble of projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to develop probabilistic climate information, with and without an accounting of inter-model correlations, and use it to estimate climate-related risks to a local water utility in Colorado, U.S. We show that the tail risk of extreme climate changes in both mean precipitation and temperature is underestimated if model correlations are ignored. When coupled with impact models of the hydrology and infrastructure of the water utility, the underestimation of extreme climate changes substantially alters the quantification of risk for water supply shortages by mid-century. We argue that progress in climate change adaptation for local systems requires the recognition that there is less information in multi-model climate ensembles than previously thought. Importantly, adaptation decisions cannot be limited to the spread in one generation of climate models.

Adaptive and non-adaptive models of depression: A comparison using register data on antidepressant medication during divorce

PubMed Central

Fawcett, Tim W.; Higginson, Andrew D.; Metsä-Simola, Niina; Hagen, Edward H.; Houston, Alasdair I.; Martikainen, Pekka

2017-01-01

Divorce is associated with an increased probability of a depressive episode, but the causation of events remains unclear. Adaptive models of depression propose that depression is a social strategy in part, whereas non-adaptive models tend to propose a diathesis-stress mechanism. We compare an adaptive evolutionary model of depression to three alternative non-adaptive models with respect to their ability to explain the temporal pattern of depression around the time of divorce. Register-based data (304,112 individuals drawn from a random sample of 11% of Finnish people) on antidepressant purchases is used as a proxy for depression. This proxy affords an unprecedented temporal resolution (a 3-monthly prevalence estimates over 10 years) without any bias from non-compliance, and it can be linked with underlying episodes via a statistical model. The evolutionary-adaptation model (all time periods with risk of divorce are depressogenic) was the best quantitative description of the data. The non-adaptive stress-relief model (period before divorce is depressogenic and period afterwards is not) provided the second best quantitative description of the data. The peak-stress model (periods before and after divorce can be depressogenic) fit the data less well, and the stress-induction model (period following divorce is depressogenic and the preceding period is not) did not fit the data at all. The evolutionary model was the most detailed mechanistic description of the divorce-depression link among the models, and the best fit in terms of predicted curvature; thus, it offers most rigorous hypotheses for further study. The stress-relief model also fit very well and was the best model in a sensitivity analysis, encouraging development of more mechanistic models for that hypothesis. PMID:28614385

Adaptive and non-adaptive models of depression: A comparison using register data on antidepressant medication during divorce.

PubMed

Rosenström, Tom; Fawcett, Tim W; Higginson, Andrew D; Metsä-Simola, Niina; Hagen, Edward H; Houston, Alasdair I; Martikainen, Pekka

2017-01-01

Divorce is associated with an increased probability of a depressive episode, but the causation of events remains unclear. Adaptive models of depression propose that depression is a social strategy in part, whereas non-adaptive models tend to propose a diathesis-stress mechanism. We compare an adaptive evolutionary model of depression to three alternative non-adaptive models with respect to their ability to explain the temporal pattern of depression around the time of divorce. Register-based data (304,112 individuals drawn from a random sample of 11% of Finnish people) on antidepressant purchases is used as a proxy for depression. This proxy affords an unprecedented temporal resolution (a 3-monthly prevalence estimates over 10 years) without any bias from non-compliance, and it can be linked with underlying episodes via a statistical model. The evolutionary-adaptation model (all time periods with risk of divorce are depressogenic) was the best quantitative description of the data. The non-adaptive stress-relief model (period before divorce is depressogenic and period afterwards is not) provided the second best quantitative description of the data. The peak-stress model (periods before and after divorce can be depressogenic) fit the data less well, and the stress-induction model (period following divorce is depressogenic and the preceding period is not) did not fit the data at all. The evolutionary model was the most detailed mechanistic description of the divorce-depression link among the models, and the best fit in terms of predicted curvature; thus, it offers most rigorous hypotheses for further study. The stress-relief model also fit very well and was the best model in a sensitivity analysis, encouraging development of more mechanistic models for that hypothesis.

Constant Switching Frequency DTC for Matrix Converter Fed Speed Sensorless Induction Motor Drive

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mir, Tabish Nazir; Singh, Bhim; Bhat, Abdul Hamid

2018-05-01

The paper presents a constant switching frequency scheme for speed sensorless Direct Torque Control (DTC) of Matrix Converter fed Induction Motor Drive. The use of matrix converter facilitates improved power quality on input as well as motor side, along with Input Power Factor control, besides eliminating the need for heavy passive elements. Moreover, DTC through Space Vector Modulation helps in achieving a fast control over the torque and flux of the motor, with added benefit of constant switching frequency. A constant switching frequency aids in maintaining desired power quality of AC mains current even at low motor speeds, and simplifies input filter design of the matrix converter, as compared to conventional hysteresis based DTC. Further, stator voltage estimation from sensed input voltage, and subsequent stator (and rotor) flux estimation is done. For speed sensorless operation, a Model Reference Adaptive System is used, which emulates the speed dependent rotor flux equations of the induction motor. The error between conventionally estimated rotor flux (reference model) and the rotor flux estimated through the adaptive observer is processed through PI controller to generate the rotor speed estimate.

Improvements in prevalence trend fitting and incidence estimation in EPP 2013

PubMed Central

Brown, Tim; Bao, Le; Eaton, Jeffrey W.; Hogan, Daniel R.; Mahy, Mary; Marsh, Kimberly; Mathers, Bradley M.; Puckett, Robert

2014-01-01

Objective: Describe modifications to the latest version of the Joint United Nations Programme on AIDS (UNAIDS) Estimation and Projection Package component of Spectrum (EPP 2013) to improve prevalence fitting and incidence trend estimation in national epidemics and global estimates of HIV burden. Methods: Key changes made under the guidance of the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling and Projections include: availability of a range of incidence calculation models and guidance for selecting a model; a shift to reporting the Bayesian median instead of the maximum likelihood estimate; procedures for comparison and validation against reported HIV and AIDS data; incorporation of national surveys as an integral part of the fitting and calibration procedure, allowing survey trends to inform the fit; improved antenatal clinic calibration procedures in countries without surveys; adjustment of national antiretroviral therapy reports used in the fitting to include only those aged 15–49 years; better estimates of mortality among people who inject drugs; and enhancements to speed fitting. Results: The revised models in EPP 2013 allow closer fits to observed prevalence trend data and reflect improving understanding of HIV epidemics and associated data. Conclusion: Spectrum and EPP continue to adapt to make better use of the existing data sources, incorporate new sources of information in their fitting and validation procedures, and correct for quantifiable biases in inputs as they are identified and understood. These adaptations provide countries with better calibrated estimates of incidence and prevalence, which increase epidemic understanding and provide a solid base for program and policy planning. PMID:25406747

Make the most of your samples: Bayes factor estimators for high-dimensional models of sequence evolution.

PubMed

Baele, Guy; Lemey, Philippe; Vansteelandt, Stijn

2013-03-06

Accurate model comparison requires extensive computation times, especially for parameter-rich models of sequence evolution. In the Bayesian framework, model selection is typically performed through the evaluation of a Bayes factor, the ratio of two marginal likelihoods (one for each model). Recently introduced techniques to estimate (log) marginal likelihoods, such as path sampling and stepping-stone sampling, offer increased accuracy over the traditional harmonic mean estimator at an increased computational cost. Most often, each model's marginal likelihood will be estimated individually, which leads the resulting Bayes factor to suffer from errors associated with each of these independent estimation processes. We here assess the original 'model-switch' path sampling approach for direct Bayes factor estimation in phylogenetics, as well as an extension that uses more samples, to construct a direct path between two competing models, thereby eliminating the need to calculate each model's marginal likelihood independently. Further, we provide a competing Bayes factor estimator using an adaptation of the recently introduced stepping-stone sampling algorithm and set out to determine appropriate settings for accurately calculating such Bayes factors, with context-dependent evolutionary models as an example. While we show that modest efforts are required to roughly identify the increase in model fit, only drastically increased computation times ensure the accuracy needed to detect more subtle details of the evolutionary process. We show that our adaptation of stepping-stone sampling for direct Bayes factor calculation outperforms the original path sampling approach as well as an extension that exploits more samples. Our proposed approach for Bayes factor estimation also has preferable statistical properties over the use of individual marginal likelihood estimates for both models under comparison. Assuming a sigmoid function to determine the path between two competing models, we provide evidence that a single well-chosen sigmoid shape value requires less computational efforts in order to approximate the true value of the (log) Bayes factor compared to the original approach. We show that the (log) Bayes factors calculated using path sampling and stepping-stone sampling differ drastically from those estimated using either of the harmonic mean estimators, supporting earlier claims that the latter systematically overestimate the performance of high-dimensional models, which we show can lead to erroneous conclusions. Based on our results, we argue that highly accurate estimation of differences in model fit for high-dimensional models requires much more computational effort than suggested in recent studies on marginal likelihood estimation.

A Unified Nonlinear Adaptive Approach for Detection and Isolation of Engine Faults

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tang, Liang; DeCastro, Jonathan A.; Zhang, Xiaodong; Farfan-Ramos, Luis; Simon, Donald L.

2010-01-01

A challenging problem in aircraft engine health management (EHM) system development is to detect and isolate faults in system components (i.e., compressor, turbine), actuators, and sensors. Existing nonlinear EHM methods often deal with component faults, actuator faults, and sensor faults separately, which may potentially lead to incorrect diagnostic decisions and unnecessary maintenance. Therefore, it would be ideal to address sensor faults, actuator faults, and component faults under one unified framework. This paper presents a systematic and unified nonlinear adaptive framework for detecting and isolating sensor faults, actuator faults, and component faults for aircraft engines. The fault detection and isolation (FDI) architecture consists of a parallel bank of nonlinear adaptive estimators. Adaptive thresholds are appropriately designed such that, in the presence of a particular fault, all components of the residual generated by the adaptive estimator corresponding to the actual fault type remain below their thresholds. If the faults are sufficiently different, then at least one component of the residual generated by each remaining adaptive estimator should exceed its threshold. Therefore, based on the specific response of the residuals, sensor faults, actuator faults, and component faults can be isolated. The effectiveness of the approach was evaluated using the NASA C-MAPSS turbofan engine model, and simulation results are presented.

Multiple Imputation For Combined-Survey Estimation With Incomplete Regressors In One But Not Both Surveys

PubMed Central

Rendall, Michael S.; Ghosh-Dastidar, Bonnie; Weden, Margaret M.; Baker, Elizabeth H.; Nazarov, Zafar

2013-01-01

Within-survey multiple imputation (MI) methods are adapted to pooled-survey regression estimation where one survey has more regressors, but typically fewer observations, than the other. This adaptation is achieved through: (1) larger numbers of imputations to compensate for the higher fraction of missing values; (2) model-fit statistics to check the assumption that the two surveys sample from a common universe; and (3) specificying the analysis model completely from variables present in the survey with the larger set of regressors, thereby excluding variables never jointly observed. In contrast to the typical within-survey MI context, cross-survey missingness is monotonic and easily satisfies the Missing At Random (MAR) assumption needed for unbiased MI. Large efficiency gains and substantial reduction in omitted variable bias are demonstrated in an application to sociodemographic differences in the risk of child obesity estimated from two nationally-representative cohort surveys. PMID:24223447

Kernel-density estimation and approximate Bayesian computation for flexible epidemiological model fitting in Python.

PubMed

Irvine, Michael A; Hollingsworth, T Déirdre

2018-05-26

Fitting complex models to epidemiological data is a challenging problem: methodologies can be inaccessible to all but specialists, there may be challenges in adequately describing uncertainty in model fitting, the complex models may take a long time to run, and it can be difficult to fully capture the heterogeneity in the data. We develop an adaptive approximate Bayesian computation scheme to fit a variety of epidemiologically relevant data with minimal hyper-parameter tuning by using an adaptive tolerance scheme. We implement a novel kernel density estimation scheme to capture both dispersed and multi-dimensional data, and directly compare this technique to standard Bayesian approaches. We then apply the procedure to a complex individual-based simulation of lymphatic filariasis, a human parasitic disease. The procedure and examples are released alongside this article as an open access library, with examples to aid researchers to rapidly fit models to data. This demonstrates that an adaptive ABC scheme with a general summary and distance metric is capable of performing model fitting for a variety of epidemiological data. It also does not require significant theoretical background to use and can be made accessible to the diverse epidemiological research community. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Application of ANFIS to Phase Estimation for Multiple Phase Shift Keying

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Drake, Jeffrey T.; Prasad, Nadipuram R.

2000-01-01

The paper discusses a novel use of Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference Systems (ANFIS) for estimating phase in Multiple Phase Shift Keying (M-PSK) modulation. A brief overview of communications phase estimation is provided. The modeling of both general open-loop, and closed-loop phase estimation schemes for M-PSK symbols with unknown structure are discussed. Preliminary performance results from simulation of the above schemes are presented.

Adaptive and Personalized Plasma Insulin Concentration Estimation for Artificial Pancreas Systems.

PubMed

Hajizadeh, Iman; Rashid, Mudassir; Samadi, Sediqeh; Feng, Jianyuan; Sevil, Mert; Hobbs, Nicole; Lazaro, Caterina; Maloney, Zacharie; Brandt, Rachel; Yu, Xia; Turksoy, Kamuran; Littlejohn, Elizabeth; Cengiz, Eda; Cinar, Ali

2018-05-01

The artificial pancreas (AP) system, a technology that automatically administers exogenous insulin in people with type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) to regulate their blood glucose concentrations, necessitates the estimation of the amount of active insulin already present in the body to avoid overdosing. An adaptive and personalized plasma insulin concentration (PIC) estimator is designed in this work to accurately quantify the insulin present in the bloodstream. The proposed PIC estimation approach incorporates Hovorka's glucose-insulin model with the unscented Kalman filtering algorithm. Methods for the personalized initialization of the time-varying model parameters to individual patients for improved estimator convergence are developed. Data from 20 three-days-long closed-loop clinical experiments conducted involving subjects with T1DM are used to evaluate the proposed PIC estimation approach. The proposed methods are applied to the clinical data containing significant disturbances, such as unannounced meals and exercise, and the results demonstrate the accurate real-time estimation of the PIC with the root mean square error of 7.15 and 9.25 mU/L for the optimization-based fitted parameters and partial least squares regression-based testing parameters, respectively. The accurate real-time estimation of PIC will benefit the AP systems by preventing overdelivery of insulin when significant insulin is present in the bloodstream.

Adaptive cancellation of motion artifact in wearable biosensors.

PubMed

Yousefi, Rasoul; Nourani, Mehrdad; Panahi, Issa

2012-01-01

The performance of wearable biosensors is highly influenced by motion artifact. In this paper, a model is proposed for analysis of motion artifact in wearable photoplethysmography (PPG) sensors. Using this model, we proposed a robust real-time technique to estimate fundamental frequency and generate a noise reference signal. A Least Mean Square (LMS) adaptive noise canceler is then designed and validated using our synthetic noise generator. The analysis and results on proposed technique for noise cancellation shows promising performance.

Angular velocity estimation from measurement vectors of star tracker.

PubMed

Liu, Hai-bo; Yang, Jun-cai; Yi, Wen-jun; Wang, Jiong-qi; Yang, Jian-kun; Li, Xiu-jian; Tan, Ji-chun

2012-06-01

In most spacecraft, there is a need to know the craft's angular rate. Approaches with least squares and an adaptive Kalman filter are proposed for estimating the angular rate directly from the star tracker measurements. In these approaches, only knowledge of the vector measurements and sampling interval is required. The designed adaptive Kalman filter can filter out noise without information of the dynamic model and inertia dyadic. To verify the proposed estimation approaches, simulations based on the orbit data of the challenging minisatellite payload (CHAMP) satellite and experimental tests with night-sky observation are performed. Both the simulations and experimental testing results have demonstrated that the proposed approach performs well in terms of accuracy, robustness, and performance.

Quantifying the effect of autonomous adaptation to global river flood projections: application to future flood risk assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kinoshita, Youhei; Tanoue, Masahiro; Watanabe, Satoshi; Hirabayashi, Yukiko

2018-01-01

This study represents the first attempt to quantify the effects of autonomous adaptation on the projection of global flood hazards and to assess future flood risk by including this effect. A vulnerability scenario, which varies according to the autonomous adaptation effect for conventional disaster mitigation efforts, was developed based on historical vulnerability values derived from flood damage records and a river inundation simulation. Coupled with general circulation model outputs and future socioeconomic scenarios, potential future flood fatalities and economic loss were estimated. By including the effect of autonomous adaptation, our multimodel ensemble estimates projected a 2.0% decrease in potential flood fatalities and an 821% increase in potential economic losses by 2100 under the highest emission scenario together with a large population increase. Vulnerability changes reduced potential flood consequences by 64%-72% in terms of potential fatalities and 28%-42% in terms of potential economic losses by 2100. Although socioeconomic changes made the greatest contribution to the potential increased consequences of future floods, about a half of the increase of potential economic losses was mitigated by autonomous adaptation. There is a clear and positive relationship between the global temperature increase from the pre-industrial level and the estimated mean potential flood economic loss, while there is a negative relationship with potential fatalities due to the autonomous adaptation effect. A bootstrapping analysis suggests a significant increase in potential flood fatalities (+5.7%) without any adaptation if the temperature increases by 1.5 °C-2.0 °C, whereas the increase in potential economic loss (+0.9%) was not significant. Our method enables the effects of autonomous adaptation and additional adaptation efforts on climate-induced hazards to be distinguished, which would be essential for the accurate estimation of the cost of adaptation to climate change.

Make the most of your samples: Bayes factor estimators for high-dimensional models of sequence evolution

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Accurate model comparison requires extensive computation times, especially for parameter-rich models of sequence evolution. In the Bayesian framework, model selection is typically performed through the evaluation of a Bayes factor, the ratio of two marginal likelihoods (one for each model). Recently introduced techniques to estimate (log) marginal likelihoods, such as path sampling and stepping-stone sampling, offer increased accuracy over the traditional harmonic mean estimator at an increased computational cost. Most often, each model’s marginal likelihood will be estimated individually, which leads the resulting Bayes factor to suffer from errors associated with each of these independent estimation processes. Results We here assess the original ‘model-switch’ path sampling approach for direct Bayes factor estimation in phylogenetics, as well as an extension that uses more samples, to construct a direct path between two competing models, thereby eliminating the need to calculate each model’s marginal likelihood independently. Further, we provide a competing Bayes factor estimator using an adaptation of the recently introduced stepping-stone sampling algorithm and set out to determine appropriate settings for accurately calculating such Bayes factors, with context-dependent evolutionary models as an example. While we show that modest efforts are required to roughly identify the increase in model fit, only drastically increased computation times ensure the accuracy needed to detect more subtle details of the evolutionary process. Conclusions We show that our adaptation of stepping-stone sampling for direct Bayes factor calculation outperforms the original path sampling approach as well as an extension that exploits more samples. Our proposed approach for Bayes factor estimation also has preferable statistical properties over the use of individual marginal likelihood estimates for both models under comparison. Assuming a sigmoid function to determine the path between two competing models, we provide evidence that a single well-chosen sigmoid shape value requires less computational efforts in order to approximate the true value of the (log) Bayes factor compared to the original approach. We show that the (log) Bayes factors calculated using path sampling and stepping-stone sampling differ drastically from those estimated using either of the harmonic mean estimators, supporting earlier claims that the latter systematically overestimate the performance of high-dimensional models, which we show can lead to erroneous conclusions. Based on our results, we argue that highly accurate estimation of differences in model fit for high-dimensional models requires much more computational effort than suggested in recent studies on marginal likelihood estimation. PMID:23497171

Adaptive control of an exoskeleton robot with uncertainties on kinematics and dynamics.

PubMed

Brahmi, Brahim; Saad, Maarouf; Ochoa-Luna, Cristobal; Rahman, Mohammad H

2017-07-01

In this paper, we propose a new adaptive control technique based on nonlinear sliding mode control (JSTDE) taking into account kinematics and dynamics uncertainties. This approach is applied to an exoskeleton robot with uncertain kinematics and dynamics. The adaptation design is based on Time Delay Estimation (TDE). The proposed strategy does not necessitate the well-defined dynamic and kinematic models of the system robot. The updated laws are designed using Lyapunov-function to solve the adaptation problem systematically, proving the close loop stability and ensuring the convergence asymptotically of the outputs tracking errors. Experiments results show the effectiveness and feasibility of JSTDE technique to deal with the variation of the unknown nonlinear dynamics and kinematics of the exoskeleton model.

Neural adaptive control for vibration suppression in composite fin-tip of aircraft.

PubMed

Suresh, S; Kannan, N; Sundararajan, N; Saratchandran, P

2008-06-01

In this paper, we present a neural adaptive control scheme for active vibration suppression of a composite aircraft fin tip. The mathematical model of a composite aircraft fin tip is derived using the finite element approach. The finite element model is updated experimentally to reflect the natural frequencies and mode shapes very accurately. Piezo-electric actuators and sensors are placed at optimal locations such that the vibration suppression is a maximum. Model-reference direct adaptive neural network control scheme is proposed to force the vibration level within the minimum acceptable limit. In this scheme, Gaussian neural network with linear filters is used to approximate the inverse dynamics of the system and the parameters of the neural controller are estimated using Lyapunov based update law. In order to reduce the computational burden, which is critical for real-time applications, the number of hidden neurons is also estimated in the proposed scheme. The global asymptotic stability of the overall system is ensured using the principles of Lyapunov approach. Simulation studies are carried-out using sinusoidal force functions of varying frequency. Experimental results show that the proposed neural adaptive control scheme is capable of providing significant vibration suppression in the multiple bending modes of interest. The performance of the proposed scheme is better than the H(infinity) control scheme.

Agronomic and environmental implications of enhanced s-triazine degradation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Krutz, L. J.; Dale L. Shaner,; Mark A. Weaver,; Webb, Richard M.; Zablotowicz, Robert M.; Reddy, Krishna N.; Huang, Y.; Thompson, S. J.

2010-01-01

Novel catabolic pathways enabling rapid detoxification of s-triazine herbicides have been elucidated and detected at a growing number of locations. The genes responsible for s-triazine mineralization, i.e. atzABCDEF and trzNDF, occur in at least four bacterial phyla and are implicated in the development of enhanced degradation in agricultural soils from all continents except Antarctica. Enhanced degradation occurs in at least nine crops and six crop rotation systems that rely on s-triazine herbicides for weed control, and, with the exception of acidic soil conditions and s-triazine application frequency, adaptation of the microbial population is independent of soil physiochemical properties and cultural management practices. From an agronomic perspective, residual weed control could be reduced tenfold in s-triazine-adapted relative to non-adapted soils. From an environmental standpoint, the off-site loss of total s-triazine residues could be overestimated 13-fold in adapted soils if altered persistence estimates and metabolic pathways are not reflected in fate and transport models. Empirical models requiring soil pH and s-triazine use history as input parameters predict atrazine persistence more accurately than historical estimates, thereby allowing practitioners to adjust weed control strategies and model input values when warranted. 

Mixed effects versus fixed effects modelling of binary data with inter-subject variability.

PubMed

Murphy, Valda; Dunne, Adrian

2005-04-01

The question of whether or not a mixed effects model is required when modelling binary data with inter-subject variability and within subject correlation was reported in this journal by Yano et al. (J. Pharmacokin. Pharmacodyn. 28:389-412 [2001]). That report used simulation experiments to demonstrate that, under certain circumstances, the use of a fixed effects model produced more accurate estimates of the fixed effect parameters than those produced by a mixed effects model. The Laplace approximation to the likelihood was used when fitting the mixed effects model. This paper repeats one of those simulation experiments, with two binary observations recorded for every subject, and uses both the Laplace and the adaptive Gaussian quadrature approximations to the likelihood when fitting the mixed effects model. The results show that the estimates produced using the Laplace approximation include a small number of extreme outliers. This was not the case when using the adaptive Gaussian quadrature approximation. Further examination of these outliers shows that they arise in situations in which the Laplace approximation seriously overestimates the likelihood in an extreme region of the parameter space. It is also demonstrated that when the number of observations per subject is increased from two to three, the estimates based on the Laplace approximation no longer include any extreme outliers. The root mean squared error is a combination of the bias and the variability of the estimates. Increasing the sample size is known to reduce the variability of an estimator with a consequent reduction in its root mean squared error. The estimates based on the fixed effects model are inherently biased and this bias acts as a lower bound for the root mean squared error of these estimates. Consequently, it might be expected that for data sets with a greater number of subjects the estimates based on the mixed effects model would be more accurate than those based on the fixed effects model. This is borne out by the results of a further simulation experiment with an increased number of subjects in each set of data. The difference in the interpretation of the parameters of the fixed and mixed effects models is discussed. It is demonstrated that the mixed effects model and parameter estimates can be used to estimate the parameters of the fixed effects model but not vice versa.

The method of constant stimuli is inefficient

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Watson, Andrew B.; Fitzhugh, Andrew

1990-01-01

Simpson (1988) has argued that the method of constant stimuli is as efficient as adaptive methods of threshold estimation and has supported this claim with simulations. It is shown that Simpson's simulations are not a reasonable model of the experimental process and that more plausible simulations confirm that adaptive methods are much more efficient that the method of constant stimuli.

The uncertainty of crop yield projections is reduced by improved temperature response functions

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Increasing the accuracy of crop productivity estimates is a key Increasing the accuracy of crop productivity estimates is a key element in planning adaptation strategies to ensure global food security under climate change. Process-based crop models are effective means to project climate impact on cr...

Adapting the CROPGRO cotton model to simulate cotton biomass and yield under southern root-knot nematode parasitism

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) yield losses by southern root-knot nematode [Meloidogyne incognita (Kofoid & White) Chitwood] (RKN) are usually estimated after significant damage has been caused. However, estimation of potential yield reduction before planting is possible by using crop simulation mod...

A novel adaptive control method for induction motor based on Backstepping approach using dSpace DS 1104 control board

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ben Regaya, Chiheb; Farhani, Fethi; Zaafouri, Abderrahmen; Chaari, Abdelkader

2018-02-01

This paper presents a new adaptive Backstepping technique to handle the induction motor (IM) rotor resistance tracking problem. The proposed solution leads to improve the robustness of the control system. Given the presence of static error when estimating the rotor resistance with classical methods, and the sensitivity to the load torque variation at low speed, a new Backstepping observer enhanced with an integral action of the tracking errors is presented, which can be established in two steps. The first one consists to estimate the rotor flux using a Backstepping observer. The second step, defines the adaptation mechanism of the rotor resistance based on the estimated rotor-flux. The asymptotic stability of the observer is proven by Lyapunov theory. To validate the proposed solution, a simulation and experimental benchmarking of a 3 kW induction motor are presented and analyzed. The obtained results show the effectiveness of the proposed solution compared to the model reference adaptive system (MRAS) rotor resistance observer presented in other recent works.

Machine remaining useful life prediction: An integrated adaptive neuro-fuzzy and high-order particle filtering approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Chaochao; Vachtsevanos, George; Orchard, Marcos E.

2012-04-01

Machine prognosis can be considered as the generation of long-term predictions that describe the evolution in time of a fault indicator, with the purpose of estimating the remaining useful life (RUL) of a failing component/subsystem so that timely maintenance can be performed to avoid catastrophic failures. This paper proposes an integrated RUL prediction method using adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS) and high-order particle filtering, which forecasts the time evolution of the fault indicator and estimates the probability density function (pdf) of RUL. The ANFIS is trained and integrated in a high-order particle filter as a model describing the fault progression. The high-order particle filter is used to estimate the current state and carry out p-step-ahead predictions via a set of particles. These predictions are used to estimate the RUL pdf. The performance of the proposed method is evaluated via the real-world data from a seeded fault test for a UH-60 helicopter planetary gear plate. The results demonstrate that it outperforms both the conventional ANFIS predictor and the particle-filter-based predictor where the fault growth model is a first-order model that is trained via the ANFIS.

Development of a new semi-analytical model for cross-borehole flow experiments in fractured media

USGS Publications Warehouse

Roubinet, Delphine; Irving, James; Day-Lewis, Frederick D.

2015-01-01

Analysis of borehole flow logs is a valuable technique for identifying the presence of fractures in the subsurface and estimating properties such as fracture connectivity, transmissivity and storativity. However, such estimation requires the development of analytical and/or numerical modeling tools that are well adapted to the complexity of the problem. In this paper, we present a new semi-analytical formulation for cross-borehole flow in fractured media that links transient vertical-flow velocities measured in one or a series of observation wells during hydraulic forcing to the transmissivity and storativity of the fractures intersected by these wells. In comparison with existing models, our approach presents major improvements in terms of computational expense and potential adaptation to a variety of fracture and experimental configurations. After derivation of the formulation, we demonstrate its application in the context of sensitivity analysis for a relatively simple two-fracture synthetic problem, as well as for field-data analysis to investigate fracture connectivity and estimate fracture hydraulic properties. These applications provide important insights regarding (i) the strong sensitivity of fracture property estimates to the overall connectivity of the system; and (ii) the non-uniqueness of the corresponding inverse problem for realistic fracture configurations.

Warm-adapted microbial communities enhance their carbon-use efficiency in warmed soils

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rousk, Johannes; Frey, Serita

2017-04-01

Ecosystem models predict that climate warming will stimulate microbial decomposition of soil carbon (C), resulting in a positive feedback to increasing temperatures. The current generation of models assume that the temperature sensitivities of microbial processes do not respond to warming. However, recent studies have suggested that the ability of microbial communities to adapt to warming can lead both strengthened and weakened feedbacks. A further complication is that the balance between microbial C used for growth to that used for respiration - the microbial carbon-use efficiency (CUE) - also has been shown through both modelling and empirical study to respond to warming. In our study, we set out to assess how chronic warming (+5°C over ambient during 9 years) of a temperate hardwood forest floor (Harvard Forest LTER, USA) affected temperature sensitivities of microbial processes in soil. To do this, we first determined the temperature relationships for bacterial growth, fungal growth, and respiration in plots exposed to warmed or ambient conditions. Secondly, we parametrised the established temperature functions microbial growth and respiration with plot-specific measured soil temperature data at a hourly time-resolution over the course of 3 years to estimate the real-time variation of in situ microbial C production and respiration. To estimate the microbial CUE, we also divided the microbial C production with the sum of microbial C production and respiration as a proxy for substrate use. We found that warm-adapted bacterial and fungal communities both shifted their temperature relationships to grow at higher rates in warm conditions which coincided with reduced rates at cool conditions. As such, their optimal temperature (Topt), minimum temperature (Tmin) and temperature sensitivity (Q10) were all increased. The temperature relationship for temperature, in contrast, was only marginally shifted in the same direction, but at a much smaller effect size, with negligible changes in Topt, Tmin and Q10 for respiration. When these physiological changes were scaled with soil temperature data to estimate real-time variation in situ during three years, the warm-adaptation resulted in elevated microbial CUEs during summer temperatures in warm-adapted communities and reduced microbial CUEs during winter temperatures. By comparing simulated microbial CUEs in cold-adapted communities exposed to warmed conditions to microbial CUEs in the warm-adapted communities exposed to those temperatures, we could demonstrate that the shifts towards warm-adapted microbial communities had selected for elevated microbial CUEs for the full range of in situ soil temperatures during three years. Our results suggest that microbial adaptation to warming will enhance microbial CUEs, shifting their balance of C use from respiration to biomass production. If our estimates scale to ecosystem level, this would imply that warm-adapted microbial communities will ultimately have the potential to store more C in soil than their cold-adapted counter parts could when exposed to warmer temperatures.

An adaptive human response mechanism controlling the V/STOL aircraft. Appendix 3: The adaptive control model of a pilot in V/STOL aircraft control loops. M.S. Thesis. Final Report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kucuk, Senol

1988-01-01

Importance of the role of human operator in control systems has led to the particular area of manual control theory. Human describing functions were developed to model human behavior for manual control studies to take advantage of the successful and safe human operations. A single variable approach is presented that can be extended for multi-variable tasks where a low order human response model is used together with its rules, to adapt the model on-line, being capable of responding to the changes in the controlled element dynamics. Basic control theory concepts are used to combine the model, constrained with the physical observations, particularly, for the case of aircraft control. Pilot experience is represented as the initial model parameters. An adaptive root-locus method is presented as the adaptation law of the model where the closed loop bandwidth of the system is to be preserved in a stable manner with the adjustments of the pilot handling qualities which relate the latter to the closed loop bandwidth and damping of the closed loop pilot aircraft combination. A Kalman filter parameter estimator is presented as the controlled element identifier of the adaptive model where any discrepancies of the open loop dynamics from the presented one, are sensed to be compensated.

A Self-Organizing State-Space-Model Approach for Parameter Estimation in Hodgkin-Huxley-Type Models of Single Neurons

PubMed Central

Vavoulis, Dimitrios V.; Straub, Volko A.; Aston, John A. D.; Feng, Jianfeng

2012-01-01

Traditional approaches to the problem of parameter estimation in biophysical models of neurons and neural networks usually adopt a global search algorithm (for example, an evolutionary algorithm), often in combination with a local search method (such as gradient descent) in order to minimize the value of a cost function, which measures the discrepancy between various features of the available experimental data and model output. In this study, we approach the problem of parameter estimation in conductance-based models of single neurons from a different perspective. By adopting a hidden-dynamical-systems formalism, we expressed parameter estimation as an inference problem in these systems, which can then be tackled using a range of well-established statistical inference methods. The particular method we used was Kitagawa's self-organizing state-space model, which was applied on a number of Hodgkin-Huxley-type models using simulated or actual electrophysiological data. We showed that the algorithm can be used to estimate a large number of parameters, including maximal conductances, reversal potentials, kinetics of ionic currents, measurement and intrinsic noise, based on low-dimensional experimental data and sufficiently informative priors in the form of pre-defined constraints imposed on model parameters. The algorithm remained operational even when very noisy experimental data were used. Importantly, by combining the self-organizing state-space model with an adaptive sampling algorithm akin to the Covariance Matrix Adaptation Evolution Strategy, we achieved a significant reduction in the variance of parameter estimates. The algorithm did not require the explicit formulation of a cost function and it was straightforward to apply on compartmental models and multiple data sets. Overall, the proposed methodology is particularly suitable for resolving high-dimensional inference problems based on noisy electrophysiological data and, therefore, a potentially useful tool in the construction of biophysical neuron models. PMID:22396632

Optimizing the learning rate for adaptive estimation of neural encoding models

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

Closed-loop neurotechnologies often need to adaptively learn an encoding model that relates the neural activity to the brain state, and is used for brain state decoding. The speed and accuracy of adaptive learning algorithms are critically affected by the learning rate, which dictates how fast model parameters are updated based on new observations. Despite the importance of the learning rate, currently an analytical approach for its selection is largely lacking and existing signal processing methods vastly tune it empirically or heuristically. Here, we develop a novel analytical calibration algorithm for optimal selection of the learning rate in adaptive Bayesian filters. We formulate the problem through a fundamental trade-off that learning rate introduces between the steady-state error and the convergence time of the estimated model parameters. We derive explicit functions that predict the effect of learning rate on error and convergence time. Using these functions, our calibration algorithm can keep the steady-state parameter error covariance smaller than a desired upper-bound while minimizing the convergence time, or keep the convergence time faster than a desired value while minimizing the error. We derive the algorithm both for discrete-valued spikes modeled as point processes nonlinearly dependent on the brain state, and for continuous-valued neural recordings modeled as Gaussian processes linearly dependent on the brain state. Using extensive closed-loop simulations, we show that the analytical solution of the calibration algorithm accurately predicts the effect of learning rate on parameter error and convergence time. Moreover, the calibration algorithm allows for fast and accurate learning of the encoding model and for fast convergence of decoding to accurate performance. Finally, larger learning rates result in inaccurate encoding models and decoders, and smaller learning rates delay their convergence. The calibration algorithm provides a novel analytical approach to predictably achieve a desired level of error and convergence time in adaptive learning, with application to closed-loop neurotechnologies and other signal processing domains. PMID:29813069

Optimizing the learning rate for adaptive estimation of neural encoding models.

PubMed

Hsieh, Han-Lin; Shanechi, Maryam M

2018-05-01

Closed-loop neurotechnologies often need to adaptively learn an encoding model that relates the neural activity to the brain state, and is used for brain state decoding. The speed and accuracy of adaptive learning algorithms are critically affected by the learning rate, which dictates how fast model parameters are updated based on new observations. Despite the importance of the learning rate, currently an analytical approach for its selection is largely lacking and existing signal processing methods vastly tune it empirically or heuristically. Here, we develop a novel analytical calibration algorithm for optimal selection of the learning rate in adaptive Bayesian filters. We formulate the problem through a fundamental trade-off that learning rate introduces between the steady-state error and the convergence time of the estimated model parameters. We derive explicit functions that predict the effect of learning rate on error and convergence time. Using these functions, our calibration algorithm can keep the steady-state parameter error covariance smaller than a desired upper-bound while minimizing the convergence time, or keep the convergence time faster than a desired value while minimizing the error. We derive the algorithm both for discrete-valued spikes modeled as point processes nonlinearly dependent on the brain state, and for continuous-valued neural recordings modeled as Gaussian processes linearly dependent on the brain state. Using extensive closed-loop simulations, we show that the analytical solution of the calibration algorithm accurately predicts the effect of learning rate on parameter error and convergence time. Moreover, the calibration algorithm allows for fast and accurate learning of the encoding model and for fast convergence of decoding to accurate performance. Finally, larger learning rates result in inaccurate encoding models and decoders, and smaller learning rates delay their convergence. The calibration algorithm provides a novel analytical approach to predictably achieve a desired level of error and convergence time in adaptive learning, with application to closed-loop neurotechnologies and other signal processing domains.

Design of adaptive control systems by means of self-adjusting transversal filters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Merhav, S. J.

1986-01-01

The design of closed-loop adaptive control systems based on nonparametric identification was addressed. Implementation is by self-adjusting Least Mean Square (LMS) transversal filters. The design concept is Model Reference Adaptive Control (MRAC). Major issues are to preserve the linearity of the error equations of each LMS filter, and to prevent estimation bias that is due to process or measurement noise, thus providing necessary conditions for the convergence and stability of the control system. The controlled element is assumed to be asymptotically stable and minimum phase. Because of the nonparametric Finite Impulse Response (FIR) estimates provided by the LMS filters, a-priori information on the plant model is needed only in broad terms. Following a survey of control system configurations and filter design considerations, system implementation is shown here in Single Input Single Output (SISO) format which is readily extendable to multivariable forms. In extensive computer simulation studies the controlled element is represented by a second-order system with widely varying damping, natural frequency, and relative degree.

Signal detection theory and vestibular perception: III. Estimating unbiased fit parameters for psychometric functions.

PubMed

Chaudhuri, Shomesh E; Merfeld, Daniel M

2013-03-01

Psychophysics generally relies on estimating a subject's ability to perform a specific task as a function of an observed stimulus. For threshold studies, the fitted functions are called psychometric functions. While fitting psychometric functions to data acquired using adaptive sampling procedures (e.g., "staircase" procedures), investigators have encountered a bias in the spread ("slope" or "threshold") parameter that has been attributed to the serial dependency of the adaptive data. Using simulations, we confirm this bias for cumulative Gaussian parametric maximum likelihood fits on data collected via adaptive sampling procedures, and then present a bias-reduced maximum likelihood fit that substantially reduces the bias without reducing the precision of the spread parameter estimate and without reducing the accuracy or precision of the other fit parameters. As a separate topic, we explain how to implement this bias reduction technique using generalized linear model fits as well as other numeric maximum likelihood techniques such as the Nelder-Mead simplex. We then provide a comparison of the iterative bootstrap and observed information matrix techniques for estimating parameter fit variance from adaptive sampling procedure data sets. The iterative bootstrap technique is shown to be slightly more accurate; however, the observed information technique executes in a small fraction (0.005 %) of the time required by the iterative bootstrap technique, which is an advantage when a real-time estimate of parameter fit variance is required.

A Robust Step Detection Algorithm and Walking Distance Estimation Based on Daily Wrist Activity Recognition Using a Smart Band.

PubMed

Trong Bui, Duong; Nguyen, Nhan Duc; Jeong, Gu-Min

2018-06-25

Human activity recognition and pedestrian dead reckoning are an interesting field because of their importance utilities in daily life healthcare. Currently, these fields are facing many challenges, one of which is the lack of a robust algorithm with high performance. This paper proposes a new method to implement a robust step detection and adaptive distance estimation algorithm based on the classification of five daily wrist activities during walking at various speeds using a smart band. The key idea is that the non-parametric adaptive distance estimator is performed after two activity classifiers and a robust step detector. In this study, two classifiers perform two phases of recognizing five wrist activities during walking. Then, a robust step detection algorithm, which is integrated with an adaptive threshold, peak and valley correction algorithm, is applied to the classified activities to detect the walking steps. In addition, the misclassification activities are fed back to the previous layer. Finally, three adaptive distance estimators, which are based on a non-parametric model of the average walking speed, calculate the length of each strike. The experimental results show that the average classification accuracy is about 99%, and the accuracy of the step detection is 98.7%. The error of the estimated distance is 2.2⁻4.2% depending on the type of wrist activities.

Adaptive control of nonlinear uncertain active suspension systems with prescribed performance.

PubMed

Huang, Yingbo; Na, Jing; Wu, Xing; Liu, Xiaoqin; Guo, Yu

2015-01-01

This paper proposes adaptive control designs for vehicle active suspension systems with unknown nonlinear dynamics (e.g., nonlinear spring and piece-wise linear damper dynamics). An adaptive control is first proposed to stabilize the vertical vehicle displacement and thus to improve the ride comfort and to guarantee other suspension requirements (e.g., road holding and suspension space limitation) concerning the vehicle safety and mechanical constraints. An augmented neural network is developed to online compensate for the unknown nonlinearities, and a novel adaptive law is developed to estimate both NN weights and uncertain model parameters (e.g., sprung mass), where the parameter estimation error is used as a leakage term superimposed on the classical adaptations. To further improve the control performance and simplify the parameter tuning, a prescribed performance function (PPF) characterizing the error convergence rate, maximum overshoot and steady-state error is used to propose another adaptive control. The stability for the closed-loop system is proved and particular performance requirements are analyzed. Simulations are included to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed control schemes. Copyright © 2014 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Software Technology for Adaptable, Reliable Systems (STARS)

DTIC Science & Technology

1994-03-25

Tmeline(3), SECOMO(3), SEER(3), GSFC Software Engineering Lab Model(l), SLIM(4), SEER-SEM(l), SPQR (2), PRICE-S(2), internally-developed models(3), APMSS(1...3 " Timeline - 3 " SASET (Software Architecture Sizing Estimating Tool) - 2 " MicroMan 11- 2 * LCM (Logistics Cost Model) - 2 * SPQR - 2 * PRICE-S - 2

Epidemiological burden of postmenopausal osteoporosis in Italy from 2010 to 2020: estimations from a disease model.

PubMed

Piscitelli, P; Brandi, M; Cawston, H; Gauthier, A; Kanis, J A; Compston, J; Borgström, F; Cooper, C; McCloskey, E

2014-11-01

The article describes the adaptation of a model to estimate the burden of postmenopausal osteoporosis in women aged 50 years and over in Italy between 2010 and 2020. For this purpose, a validated postmenopausal osteoporosis disease model developed for Sweden was adapted to Italy. For each year of the study, the 'incident cohort' (women experiencing a first osteoporotic fracture) was identified and run through a Markov model using 1-year cycles until 2020. Health states were based on the number of fractures and deaths. Fracture by site (hip, clinical vertebral, non-hip non-vertebral) was tracked for each health state. Transition probabilities reflected fracture site-specific risk of death and subsequent fractures. Model inputs specific to Italy included population size and life tables from 1970 to 2020, incidence of hip fracture and BMD by age in the general population (mean and standard deviation). The model estimated that the number of postmenopausal osteoporotic women would increase from 3.3 million to 3.7 million between 2010 and 2020 (+14.3%). Assuming unchanged incidence rates by age group over time, the model predicted the overall number of osteoporotic fractures to increase from 285.0 to 335.8 thousand fractures between 2010 and 2020 (+17.8%). The estimated expected increases in hip, vertebral and non-hip non-vertebral fractures were 22.3, 17.2 and 16.3%, respectively. Due to demographic changes, the burden of fractures is expected to increase markedly by 2020.

Restoration of distorted depth maps calculated from stereo sequences

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Damour, Kevin; Kaufman, Howard

1991-01-01

A model-based Kalman estimator is developed for spatial-temporal filtering of noise and other degradations in velocity and depth maps derived from image sequences or cinema. As an illustration of the proposed procedures, edge information from image sequences of rigid objects is used in the processing of the velocity maps by selecting from a series of models for directional adaptive filtering. Adaptive filtering then allows for noise reduction while preserving sharpness in the velocity maps. Results from several synthetic and real image sequences are given.

Observer-based monitoring of heat exchangers.

PubMed

Astorga-Zaragoza, Carlos-Manuel; Alvarado-Martínez, Víctor-Manuel; Zavala-Río, Arturo; Méndez-Ocaña, Rafael-Maxim; Guerrero-Ramírez, Gerardo-Vicente

2008-01-01

The goal of this work is to provide a method for monitoring performance degradation in counter-flow double-pipe heat exchangers. The overall heat transfer coefficient is estimated by an adaptive observer and monitored in order to infer when the heat exchanger needs preventive or corrective maintenance. A simplified mathematical model is used to synthesize the adaptive observer and a more complex model is used for simulation. The reliability of the proposed method was demonstrated via numerical simulations and laboratory experiments with a bench-scale pilot plant.

Multimodel Kalman filtering for adaptive nonuniformity correction in infrared sensors.

PubMed

Pezoa, Jorge E; Hayat, Majeed M; Torres, Sergio N; Rahman, Md Saifur

2006-06-01

We present an adaptive technique for the estimation of nonuniformity parameters of infrared focal-plane arrays that is robust with respect to changes and uncertainties in scene and sensor characteristics. The proposed algorithm is based on using a bank of Kalman filters in parallel. Each filter independently estimates state variables comprising the gain and the bias matrices of the sensor, according to its own dynamic-model parameters. The supervising component of the algorithm then generates the final estimates of the state variables by forming a weighted superposition of all the estimates rendered by each Kalman filter. The weights are computed and updated iteratively, according to the a posteriori-likelihood principle. The performance of the estimator and its ability to compensate for fixed-pattern noise is tested using both simulated and real data obtained from two cameras operating in the mid- and long-wave infrared regime.

Practical extension of a Lake States tree height model

Treesearch

Don C. Bragg

2008-01-01

By adapting data from national and state champion lists and the predictions of an existing height model, an exponential function was developed to improvetree height estimation. As a case study, comparisons between the original and redesigned model were made with eastern white pine (Pinus strobus L.). Forexample, the heights...

A Systems Approach to the Estimation of Ecosystem and Human Health Stressors in Air, Land and Water

EPA Science Inventory

A model linkage paradigm, based on the nitrogen cascade, is introduced. This general paradigm is then adapted to specific multi-media nitrogen issues and specific models to be linked. An example linked modeling system addressing potential nitrogen responses to biofuel-driven co...

Salt taste adaptation: the psychophysical effects of adapting solutions and residual stimuli from prior tastings on the taste of sodium chloride.

PubMed

O'Mahony, M

1979-01-01

The paper reviews how adaptation to sodium chloride, changing in concentration as a result of various experimental procedures, affects measurements of the sensitivity, intensity, and quality of the salt taste. The development of and evidence for the current model that the salt taste depends on an adaptation level (taste zero) determined by the sodium cation concentration is examined and found to be generally supported, despite great methodological complications. It would seem that lower adaptation levels elicit lower thresholds, higher intensity estimates, and altered quality descriptions with predictable effects on psychophysical measures.

A Bayesian Account of Vocal Adaptation to Pitch-Shifted Auditory Feedback

PubMed Central

Hahnloser, Richard H. R.

2017-01-01

Motor systems are highly adaptive. Both birds and humans compensate for synthetically induced shifts in the pitch (fundamental frequency) of auditory feedback stemming from their vocalizations. Pitch-shift compensation is partial in the sense that large shifts lead to smaller relative compensatory adjustments of vocal pitch than small shifts. Also, compensation is larger in subjects with high motor variability. To formulate a mechanistic description of these findings, we adapt a Bayesian model of error relevance. We assume that vocal-auditory feedback loops in the brain cope optimally with known sensory and motor variability. Based on measurements of motor variability, optimal compensatory responses in our model provide accurate fits to published experimental data. Optimal compensation correctly predicts sensory acuity, which has been estimated in psychophysical experiments as just-noticeable pitch differences. Our model extends the utility of Bayesian approaches to adaptive vocal behaviors. PMID:28135267

Controller design for a class of nonlinear MIMO coupled system using multiple models and second level adaptation.

PubMed

Pandey, Vinay Kumar; Kar, Indrani; Mahanta, Chitralekha

2017-07-01

In this paper, an adaptive control method using multiple models with second level adaptation is proposed for a class of nonlinear multi-input multi-output (MIMO) coupled systems. Multiple estimation models are used to tune the unknown parameters at the first level. The second level adaptation provides a single parameter vector for the controller. A feedback linearization technique is used to design a state feedback control. The efficacy of the designed controller is validated by conducting real time experiment on a laboratory setup of twin rotor MIMO system (TRMS). The TRMS setup is discussed in detail and the experiments were performed for regulation and tracking problem for pitch and yaw control using different reference signals. An Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) has been used to observe the unavailable states of the TRMS. Copyright © 2017 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Neuro-fuzzy model for estimating race and gender from geometric distances of human face across pose

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nanaa, K.; Rahman, M. N. A.; Rizon, M.; Mohamad, F. S.; Mamat, M.

2018-03-01

Classifying human face based on race and gender is a vital process in face recognition. It contributes to an index database and eases 3D synthesis of the human face. Identifying race and gender based on intrinsic factor is problematic, which is more fitting to utilizing nonlinear model for estimating process. In this paper, we aim to estimate race and gender in varied head pose. For this purpose, we collect dataset from PICS and CAS-PEAL databases, detect the landmarks and rotate them to the frontal pose. After geometric distances are calculated, all of distance values will be normalized. Implementation is carried out by using Neural Network Model and Fuzzy Logic Model. These models are combined by using Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Model. The experimental results showed that the optimization of address fuzzy membership. Model gives a better assessment rate and found that estimating race contributing to a more accurate gender assessment.

Direct adaptive robust tracking control for 6 DOF industrial robot with enhanced accuracy.

PubMed

Yin, Xiuxing; Pan, Li

2018-01-01

A direct adaptive robust tracking control is proposed for trajectory tracking of 6 DOF industrial robot in the presence of parametric uncertainties, external disturbances and uncertain nonlinearities. The controller is designed based on the dynamic characteristics in the working space of the end-effector of the 6 DOF robot. The controller includes robust control term and model compensation term that is developed directly based on the input reference or desired motion trajectory. A projection-type parametric adaptation law is also designed to compensate for parametric estimation errors for the adaptive robust control. The feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed direct adaptive robust control law and the associated projection-type parametric adaptation law have been comparatively evaluated based on two 6 DOF industrial robots. The test results demonstrate that the proposed control can be employed to better maintain the desired trajectory tracking even in the presence of large parametric uncertainties and external disturbances as compared with PD controller and nonlinear controller. The parametric estimates also eventually converge to the real values along with the convergence of tracking errors, which further validate the effectiveness of the proposed parametric adaption law. Copyright © 2017 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Investigation of signal models and methods for evaluating structures of processing telecommunication information exchange systems under acoustic noise conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kropotov, Y. A.; Belov, A. A.; Proskuryakov, A. Y.; Kolpakov, A. A.

2018-05-01

The paper considers models and methods for estimating signals during the transmission of information messages in telecommunication systems of audio exchange. One-dimensional probability distribution functions that can be used to isolate useful signals, and acoustic noise interference are presented. An approach to the estimation of the correlation and spectral functions of the parameters of acoustic signals is proposed, based on the parametric representation of acoustic signals and the components of the noise components. The paper suggests an approach to improving the efficiency of interference cancellation and highlighting the necessary information when processing signals from telecommunications systems. In this case, the suppression of acoustic noise is based on the methods of adaptive filtering and adaptive compensation. The work also describes the models of echo signals and the structure of subscriber devices in operational command telecommunications systems.

Probability based remaining capacity estimation using data-driven and neural network model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yujie; Yang, Duo; Zhang, Xu; Chen, Zonghai

2016-05-01

Since large numbers of lithium-ion batteries are composed in pack and the batteries are complex electrochemical devices, their monitoring and safety concerns are key issues for the applications of battery technology. An accurate estimation of battery remaining capacity is crucial for optimization of the vehicle control, preventing battery from over-charging and over-discharging and ensuring the safety during its service life. The remaining capacity estimation of a battery includes the estimation of state-of-charge (SOC) and state-of-energy (SOE). In this work, a probability based adaptive estimator is presented to obtain accurate and reliable estimation results for both SOC and SOE. For the SOC estimation, an n ordered RC equivalent circuit model is employed by combining an electrochemical model to obtain more accurate voltage prediction results. For the SOE estimation, a sliding window neural network model is proposed to investigate the relationship between the terminal voltage and the model inputs. To verify the accuracy and robustness of the proposed model and estimation algorithm, experiments under different dynamic operation current profiles are performed on the commercial 1665130-type lithium-ion batteries. The results illustrate that accurate and robust estimation can be obtained by the proposed method.

[Realization of an adaptive method of simulating the process of temperature change of a cadaver on a microcomputer].

PubMed

Shved, E F; Novikov, P I; Vlasov, A Iu

1989-01-01

Programme based on mathematical model of the process of dead body temperature changing was developed for estimation of postmortem interval. Automatic retrieval of problem solution was performed on programmable microcalculators of "Electronica MK-61" type using adaptive approach. Diagnostical accuracy in case of dead body being preserved in permanent cooling conditions is +/- 3%.

The Impacts of Various Environments Factors and Adaptive Management Strategies on Food Crops in the 21st Century Based on a Land Surface Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jain, A. K.; Lin, T. S.; Lawrence, P.; Kheshgi, H. S.

2017-12-01

Environmental factors - characterized by increasing levels of CO2, and changes in temperature and precipitation patterns - present potential risks to global food supply. To date, understanding of environmental factors' effects on crop production remains uncertain due to (1) uncertainties in projected trends of these factors and their spatial and temporal variability; (2) uncertainties in the physiological, genetic and molecular basis of crop adaptation to adaptive management practices (e.g. change in planting time, irrigation and N fertilization etc.) and (3) uncertainties in current land surface models to estimate the response of crop production to changes in environmental factors and management strategies. In this study we apply a process-based land surface model, the Integrated Science Assessment model (ISAM), to assess the impact of various environmental factors and management strategies on the production of row crops (corn, soybean and wheat) at regional and global scales. Results are compared to corresponding simulations performed with the crop model in the Community Land Model (CLM4.5). Each model is driven with historical atmospheric forcing data (1901-2005), and projected atmospheric forcing data under RCP 4.5 or RCP 8.5 (2006-2100) from CESM CMIP5 simulations to estimate the effects of different climate change projections on potential productivity of food crops at a global scale. For each set of atmospheric forcing data, production of each crop is simulated with and without inclusion of adaptive management practices (e.g. application of irrigation, N fertilization, change in planting time and crop cultivars etc.) to assess the effect of adaptation on projected crop production over the 21st century. In detail, three questions are addressed: (1) what is the impact of different climate change projections on global crop production; (2) what is the effect of adaptive management practices on projected crop production; and (3) how do differences in model mechanisms in ISAM and CLM4.5 impact projected global crop production and adaptive management practices (irrigation and N fertilizer) over the 21st century. The major outcomes of this study will help to understand the uncertainties in potential productivity of food crops under different environmental conditions and management practices.

Predicting metabolic adaptation, body weight change, and energy intake in humans

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Complex interactions between carbohydrate, fat, and protein metabolism underlie the body's remarkable ability to adapt to a variety of diets. But any imbalances between the intake and utilization rates of these macronutrients will result in changes in body weight and composition. Here, I present the first computational model that simulates how diet perturbations result in adaptations of fuel selection and energy expenditure that predict body weight and composition changes in both obese and nonobese men and women. No model parameters were adjusted to fit these data other than the initial conditions for each subject group (e.g., initial body weight and body fat mass). The model provides the first realistic simulations of how diet perturbations result in adaptations of whole body energy expenditure, fuel selection, and various metabolic fluxes that ultimately give rise to body weight change. The validated model was used to estimate free-living energy intake during a long-term weight loss intervention, a variable that has never previously been measured accurately. PMID:19934407

Study on the State of Health Detection of Li-ion Power Batteries Based on Adaptive Unscented Kalman Filters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Xiangwu; Deng, Haoran; Wang, Ling; Guo, Qi

2017-12-01

It is essential to estimate the state of charge (SOC) and state of health (SOH) of the monomer battery in the electric vehicle li-ion power battery accurately for extending the li-ion power battery life. Based on the battery Thevenin equivalent circuit model, the paper uses adaptive unscented Kalman filter (AUKF) to estimate the inner ohmic resistance and the state of charge in real time, according to the function between the inner ohmic resistance and the state of health, the state of health can be estimated in real time. The battery charged and discharged experiments were done under two different conditions to verify the feasibility and accuracy of this method.

Alleviating inequality in climate policy costs: an integrated perspective on mitigation, damage and adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Cian, E.; Hof, A. F.; Marangoni, G.; Tavoni, M.; van Vuuren, D. P.

2016-07-01

Equity considerations play an important role in international climate negotiations. While policy analysis has often focused on equity as it relates to mitigation costs, there are large regional differences in adaptation costs and the level of residual damage. This paper illustrates the relevance of including adaptation and residual damage in equity considerations by determining how the allocation of emission allowances would change to counteract regional differences in total climate costs, defined as the costs of mitigation, adaptation, and residual damage. We compare emission levels resulting from a global carbon tax with two allocations of emission allowances under a global cap-and-trade system: one equating mitigation costs and one equating total climate costs as share of GDP. To account for uncertainties in both mitigation and adaptation, we use a model-comparison approach employing two alternative modeling frameworks with different damage, adaptation cost, and mitigation cost estimates, and look at two different climate goals. Despite the identified model uncertainties, we derive unambiguous results on the change in emission allowance allocation that could lessen the unequal distribution of adaptation costs and residual damages through the financial transfers associated with emission trading.

A Charrelation Matrix-Based Blind Adaptive Detector for DS-CDMA Systems

PubMed Central

Luo, Zhongqiang; Zhu, Lidong

2015-01-01

In this paper, a blind adaptive detector is proposed for blind separation of user signals and blind estimation of spreading sequences in DS-CDMA systems. The blind separation scheme exploits a charrelation matrix for simple computation and effective extraction of information from observation signal samples. The system model of DS-CDMA signals is modeled as a blind separation framework. The unknown user information and spreading sequence of DS-CDMA systems can be estimated only from the sampled observation signals. Theoretical analysis and simulation results show that the improved performance of the proposed algorithm in comparison with the existing conventional algorithms used in DS-CDMA systems. Especially, the proposed scheme is suitable for when the number of observation samples is less and the signal to noise ratio (SNR) is low. PMID:26287209

A Charrelation Matrix-Based Blind Adaptive Detector for DS-CDMA Systems.

PubMed

Luo, Zhongqiang; Zhu, Lidong

2015-08-14

In this paper, a blind adaptive detector is proposed for blind separation of user signals and blind estimation of spreading sequences in DS-CDMA systems. The blind separation scheme exploits a charrelation matrix for simple computation and effective extraction of information from observation signal samples. The system model of DS-CDMA signals is modeled as a blind separation framework. The unknown user information and spreading sequence of DS-CDMA systems can be estimated only from the sampled observation signals. Theoretical analysis and simulation results show that the improved performance of the proposed algorithm in comparison with the existing conventional algorithms used in DS-CDMA systems. Especially, the proposed scheme is suitable for when the number of observation samples is less and the signal to noise ratio (SNR) is low.

A hierarchical Bayesian approach to adaptive vision testing: A case study with the contrast sensitivity function.

PubMed

Gu, Hairong; Kim, Woojae; Hou, Fang; Lesmes, Luis Andres; Pitt, Mark A; Lu, Zhong-Lin; Myung, Jay I

2016-01-01

Measurement efficiency is of concern when a large number of observations are required to obtain reliable estimates for parametric models of vision. The standard entropy-based Bayesian adaptive testing procedures addressed the issue by selecting the most informative stimulus in sequential experimental trials. Noninformative, diffuse priors were commonly used in those tests. Hierarchical adaptive design optimization (HADO; Kim, Pitt, Lu, Steyvers, & Myung, 2014) further improves the efficiency of the standard Bayesian adaptive testing procedures by constructing an informative prior using data from observers who have already participated in the experiment. The present study represents an empirical validation of HADO in estimating the human contrast sensitivity function. The results show that HADO significantly improves the accuracy and precision of parameter estimates, and therefore requires many fewer observations to obtain reliable inference about contrast sensitivity, compared to the method of quick contrast sensitivity function (Lesmes, Lu, Baek, & Albright, 2010), which uses the standard Bayesian procedure. The improvement with HADO was maintained even when the prior was constructed from heterogeneous populations or a relatively small number of observers. These results of this case study support the conclusion that HADO can be used in Bayesian adaptive testing by replacing noninformative, diffuse priors with statistically justified informative priors without introducing unwanted bias.

A hierarchical Bayesian approach to adaptive vision testing: A case study with the contrast sensitivity function

PubMed Central

Gu, Hairong; Kim, Woojae; Hou, Fang; Lesmes, Luis Andres; Pitt, Mark A.; Lu, Zhong-Lin; Myung, Jay I.

2016-01-01

Measurement efficiency is of concern when a large number of observations are required to obtain reliable estimates for parametric models of vision. The standard entropy-based Bayesian adaptive testing procedures addressed the issue by selecting the most informative stimulus in sequential experimental trials. Noninformative, diffuse priors were commonly used in those tests. Hierarchical adaptive design optimization (HADO; Kim, Pitt, Lu, Steyvers, & Myung, 2014) further improves the efficiency of the standard Bayesian adaptive testing procedures by constructing an informative prior using data from observers who have already participated in the experiment. The present study represents an empirical validation of HADO in estimating the human contrast sensitivity function. The results show that HADO significantly improves the accuracy and precision of parameter estimates, and therefore requires many fewer observations to obtain reliable inference about contrast sensitivity, compared to the method of quick contrast sensitivity function (Lesmes, Lu, Baek, & Albright, 2010), which uses the standard Bayesian procedure. The improvement with HADO was maintained even when the prior was constructed from heterogeneous populations or a relatively small number of observers. These results of this case study support the conclusion that HADO can be used in Bayesian adaptive testing by replacing noninformative, diffuse priors with statistically justified informative priors without introducing unwanted bias. PMID:27105061

Similarity measure and domain adaptation in multiple mixture model clustering: An application to image processing.

PubMed

Leong, Siow Hoo; Ong, Seng Huat

2017-01-01

This paper considers three crucial issues in processing scaled down image, the representation of partial image, similarity measure and domain adaptation. Two Gaussian mixture model based algorithms are proposed to effectively preserve image details and avoids image degradation. Multiple partial images are clustered separately through Gaussian mixture model clustering with a scan and select procedure to enhance the inclusion of small image details. The local image features, represented by maximum likelihood estimates of the mixture components, are classified by using the modified Bayes factor (MBF) as a similarity measure. The detection of novel local features from MBF will suggest domain adaptation, which is changing the number of components of the Gaussian mixture model. The performance of the proposed algorithms are evaluated with simulated data and real images and it is shown to perform much better than existing Gaussian mixture model based algorithms in reproducing images with higher structural similarity index.

Similarity measure and domain adaptation in multiple mixture model clustering: An application to image processing

PubMed Central

Leong, Siow Hoo

2017-01-01

This paper considers three crucial issues in processing scaled down image, the representation of partial image, similarity measure and domain adaptation. Two Gaussian mixture model based algorithms are proposed to effectively preserve image details and avoids image degradation. Multiple partial images are clustered separately through Gaussian mixture model clustering with a scan and select procedure to enhance the inclusion of small image details. The local image features, represented by maximum likelihood estimates of the mixture components, are classified by using the modified Bayes factor (MBF) as a similarity measure. The detection of novel local features from MBF will suggest domain adaptation, which is changing the number of components of the Gaussian mixture model. The performance of the proposed algorithms are evaluated with simulated data and real images and it is shown to perform much better than existing Gaussian mixture model based algorithms in reproducing images with higher structural similarity index. PMID:28686634

Modelling Errors in Automatic Speech Recognition for Dysarthric Speakers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caballero Morales, Santiago Omar; Cox, Stephen J.

2009-12-01

Dysarthria is a motor speech disorder characterized by weakness, paralysis, or poor coordination of the muscles responsible for speech. Although automatic speech recognition (ASR) systems have been developed for disordered speech, factors such as low intelligibility and limited phonemic repertoire decrease speech recognition accuracy, making conventional speaker adaptation algorithms perform poorly on dysarthric speakers. In this work, rather than adapting the acoustic models, we model the errors made by the speaker and attempt to correct them. For this task, two techniques have been developed: (1) a set of "metamodels" that incorporate a model of the speaker's phonetic confusion matrix into the ASR process; (2) a cascade of weighted finite-state transducers at the confusion matrix, word, and language levels. Both techniques attempt to correct the errors made at the phonetic level and make use of a language model to find the best estimate of the correct word sequence. Our experiments show that both techniques outperform standard adaptation techniques.

Sensorimotor synchronization with tempo-changing auditory sequences: Modeling temporal adaptation and anticipation.

PubMed

van der Steen, M C Marieke; Jacoby, Nori; Fairhurst, Merle T; Keller, Peter E

2015-11-11

The current study investigated the human ability to synchronize movements with event sequences containing continuous tempo changes. This capacity is evident, for example, in ensemble musicians who maintain precise interpersonal coordination while modulating the performance tempo for expressive purposes. Here we tested an ADaptation and Anticipation Model (ADAM) that was developed to account for such behavior by combining error correction processes (adaptation) with a predictive temporal extrapolation process (anticipation). While previous computational models of synchronization incorporate error correction, they do not account for prediction during tempo-changing behavior. The fit between behavioral data and computer simulations based on four versions of ADAM was assessed. These versions included a model with adaptation only, one in which adaptation and anticipation act in combination (error correction is applied on the basis of predicted tempo changes), and two models in which adaptation and anticipation were linked in a joint module that corrects for predicted discrepancies between the outcomes of adaptive and anticipatory processes. The behavioral experiment required participants to tap their finger in time with three auditory pacing sequences containing tempo changes that differed in the rate of change and the number of turning points. Behavioral results indicated that sensorimotor synchronization accuracy and precision, while generally high, decreased with increases in the rate of tempo change and number of turning points. Simulations and model-based parameter estimates showed that adaptation mechanisms alone could not fully explain the observed precision of sensorimotor synchronization. Including anticipation in the model increased the precision of simulated sensorimotor synchronization and improved the fit of model to behavioral data, especially when adaptation and anticipation mechanisms were linked via a joint module based on the notion of joint internal models. Overall results suggest that adaptation and anticipation mechanisms both play an important role during sensorimotor synchronization with tempo-changing sequences. This article is part of a Special Issue entitled SI: Prediction and Attention. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Robust Alternatives to the Standard Deviation in Processing of Physics Experimental Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shulenin, V. P.

2016-10-01

Properties of robust estimations of the scale parameter are studied. It is noted that the median of absolute deviations and the modified estimation of the average Gini differences have asymptotically normal distributions and bounded influence functions, are B-robust estimations, and hence, unlike the estimation of the standard deviation, are protected from the presence of outliers in the sample. Results of comparison of estimations of the scale parameter are given for a Gaussian model with contamination. An adaptive variant of the modified estimation of the average Gini differences is considered.

Anisotropic mesh adaptation for marine ice-sheet modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gillet-Chaulet, Fabien; Tavard, Laure; Merino, Nacho; Peyaud, Vincent; Brondex, Julien; Durand, Gael; Gagliardini, Olivier

2017-04-01

Improving forecasts of ice-sheets contribution to sea-level rise requires, amongst others, to correctly model the dynamics of the grounding line (GL), i.e. the line where the ice detaches from its underlying bed and goes afloat on the ocean. Many numerical studies, including the intercomparison exercises MISMIP and MISMIP3D, have shown that grid refinement in the GL vicinity is a key component to obtain reliable results. Improving model accuracy while maintaining the computational cost affordable has then been an important target for the development of marine icesheet models. Adaptive mesh refinement (AMR) is a method where the accuracy of the solution is controlled by spatially adapting the mesh size. It has become popular in models using the finite element method as they naturally deal with unstructured meshes, but block-structured AMR has also been successfully applied to model GL dynamics. The main difficulty with AMR is to find efficient and reliable estimators of the numerical error to control the mesh size. Here, we use the estimator proposed by Frey and Alauzet (2015). Based on the interpolation error, it has been found effective in practice to control the numerical error, and has some flexibility, such as its ability to combine metrics for different variables, that makes it attractive. Routines to compute the anisotropic metric defining the mesh size have been implemented in the finite element ice flow model Elmer/Ice (Gagliardini et al., 2013). The mesh adaptation is performed using the freely available library MMG (Dapogny et al., 2014) called from Elmer/Ice. Using a setup based on the inter-comparison exercise MISMIP+ (Asay-Davis et al., 2016), we study the accuracy of the solution when the mesh is adapted using various variables (ice thickness, velocity, basal drag, …). We show that combining these variables allows to reduce the number of mesh nodes by more than one order of magnitude, for the same numerical accuracy, when compared to uniform mesh refinement. For transient solutions where the GL is moving, we have implemented an algorithm where the computation is reiterated allowing to anticipate the GL displacement and to adapt the mesh to the transient solution. We discuss the performance and robustness of this algorithm.

Adaptive multitaper time-frequency spectrum estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pitton, James W.

1999-11-01

In earlier work, Thomson's adaptive multitaper spectrum estimation method was extended to the nonstationary case. This paper reviews the time-frequency multitaper method and the adaptive procedure, and explores some properties of the eigenvalues and eigenvectors. The variance of the adaptive estimator is used to construct an adaptive smoother, which is used to form a high resolution estimate. An F-test for detecting and removing sinusoidal components in the time-frequency spectrum is also given.

The Random-Threshold Generalized Unfolding Model and Its Application of Computerized Adaptive Testing

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wang, Wen-Chung; Liu, Chen-Wei; Wu, Shiu-Lien

2013-01-01

The random-threshold generalized unfolding model (RTGUM) was developed by treating the thresholds in the generalized unfolding model as random effects rather than fixed effects to account for the subjective nature of the selection of categories in Likert items. The parameters of the new model can be estimated with the JAGS (Just Another Gibbs…

Estimators of primary production for interpretation of remotely sensed data on ocean color

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Platt, Trevor; Sathyendranath, Shubha

1993-01-01

The theoretical basis is explained for some commonly used estimators of daily primary production in a vertically uniform water column. These models are recast into a canonical form, with dimensionless arguments, to facilitate comparison with each other and with an analytic solution. The limitations of each model are examined. The values of the photoadaptation parameter I(k) observed in the ocean are analyzed, and I(k) is used as a scale to normalize the surface irradiance. The range of this scaled irradiance is presented. An equation is given for estimation of I(k) from recent light history. It is shown how the models for water column production can be adapted for estimation of the production in finite layers. The distinctions between model formulation, model implementation and model evaluation are discussed. Recommendations are given on the choice of algorithm for computation of daily production according to the degree of approximation acceptable in the result.

An analysis of European riverine flood risk and adaptation measures under projected climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bouwer, Laurens; Burzel, Andreas; Holz, Friederike; Winsemius, Hessel; de Bruijn, Karind

2015-04-01

There is increasing need to assess costs and benefits of adaptation at scales beyond the river basin. In Europe, such estimates are required at the European scale in order to set priorities for action and financing, for instance in the context of the EU Adaptation Strategy. The goal of this work as part of the FP7 BASE project is to develop a flood impact model that can be applied at Pan-European scale and that is able to project changes in flood risk due to climate change and socio-economic developments, and costs of adaptation. For this research, we build upon the global flood hazard estimation method developed by Winsemius et al. (Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 2013), that produces flood inundation maps at different return period, for present day (EU WATCH) and future climate (IPCC scenarios RCP4.5 and 8.5, for five climate models). These maps are used for the assessment of flood impacts. We developed and tested a model for assessing direct economic flood damages by using large scale land use maps. We characterise vulnerable land use functions, in particular residential, commercial, industrial, infrastructure and agriculture, using depth-damage relationships. Furthermore, we apply up to NUTS3 level information on Gross Domestic Product, which is used as a proxy for relative differences in maximum damage values between different areas. Next, we test two adaptation measures, by adjusting flood protection levels and adjusting damage functions. The results show the projected changes in flood risk in the future. For example, on NUTS2 level, flood risk increases in some regions up to 179% (between the baseline scenario 1960-1999 and time slice 2010-2049). On country level there are increases up to 60% for selected climate models. The conference presentation will show the most relevant improvements in damage modelling on the continental scale, and results of the analysis of adaptation measures. The results will be critically discussed under the aspect of major uncertainties in both future flood hazards as well as damage costs and adaptation effects and costs.

Comparing WSA coronal and solar wind model predictions driven by line-of-sight and vector HMI ADAPT maps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arge, C. N.; Henney, C. J.; Shurkin, K.; Wallace, S.

2017-12-01

As the primary input to nearly all coronal models, reliable estimates of the global solar photospheric magnetic field distribution are critical for accurate modeling and understanding of solar and heliospheric magnetic fields. The Air Force Data Assimilative Photospheric flux Transport (ADAPT) model generates synchronic (i.e., globally instantaneous) maps by evolving observed solar magnetic flux using relatively well understood transport processes when measurements are not available and then updating modeled flux with new observations (available from both the Earth and the far-side of the Sun) using data assimilation methods that rigorously take into account model and observational uncertainties. ADAPT is capable of assimilating line-of-sight and vector magnetic field data from all observatory sources including the expected photospheric vector magnetograms from the Polarimetric and Helioseismic Imager (PHI) on the Solar Orbiter, as well as those generated using helioseismic methods. This paper compares Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) coronal and solar wind modeling results at Earth and STEREO A & B using ADAPT input model maps derived from both line-of-site and vector SDO/HMI magnetograms that include methods for incorporating observations of a large, newly emerged (July 2010) far-side active region (AR11087).

Genome-Wide Association Analysis of Adaptation Using Environmentally Predicted Traits.

PubMed

van Heerwaarden, Joost; van Zanten, Martijn; Kruijer, Willem

2015-10-01

Current methods for studying the genetic basis of adaptation evaluate genetic associations with ecologically relevant traits or single environmental variables, under the implicit assumption that natural selection imposes correlations between phenotypes, environments and genotypes. In practice, observed trait and environmental data are manifestations of unknown selective forces and are only indirectly associated with adaptive genetic variation. In theory, improved estimation of these forces could enable more powerful detection of loci under selection. Here we present an approach in which we approximate adaptive variation by modeling phenotypes as a function of the environment and using the predicted trait in multivariate and univariate genome-wide association analysis (GWAS). Based on computer simulations and published flowering time data from the model plant Arabidopsis thaliana, we find that environmentally predicted traits lead to higher recovery of functional loci in multivariate GWAS and are more strongly correlated to allele frequencies at adaptive loci than individual environmental variables. Our results provide an example of the use of environmental data to obtain independent and meaningful information on adaptive genetic variation.

On the adaptive daily forecasting of seismic aftershock hazard

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ebrahimian, Hossein; Jalayer, Fatemeh; Asprone, Domenico; Lombardi, Anna Maria; Marzocchi, Warner; Prota, Andrea; Manfredi, Gaetano

2013-04-01

Post-earthquake ground motion hazard assessment is a fundamental initial step towards time-dependent seismic risk assessment for buildings in a post main-shock environment. Therefore, operative forecasting of seismic aftershock hazard forms a viable support basis for decision-making regarding search and rescue, inspection, repair, and re-occupation in a post main-shock environment. Arguably, an adaptive procedure for integrating the aftershock occurrence rate together with suitable ground motion prediction relations is key to Probabilistic Seismic Aftershock Hazard Assessment (PSAHA). In the short-term, the seismic hazard may vary significantly (Jordan et al., 2011), particularly after the occurrence of a high magnitude earthquake. Hence, PSAHA requires a reliable model that is able to track the time evolution of the earthquake occurrence rates together with suitable ground motion prediction relations. This work focuses on providing adaptive daily forecasts of the mean daily rate of exceeding various spectral acceleration values (the aftershock hazard). Two well-established earthquake occurrence models suitable for daily seismicity forecasts associated with the evolution of an aftershock sequence, namely, the modified Omori's aftershock model and the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) are adopted. The parameters of the modified Omori model are updated on a daily basis using Bayesian updating and based on the data provided by the ongoing aftershock sequence based on the methodology originally proposed by Jalayer et al. (2011). The Bayesian updating is used also to provide sequence-based parameter estimates for a given ground motion prediction model, i.e. the aftershock events in an ongoing sequence are exploited in order to update in an adaptive manner the parameters of an existing ground motion prediction model. As a numerical example, the mean daily rates of exceeding specific spectral acceleration values are estimated adaptively for the L'Aquila 2009 aftershock catalog. The parameters of the modified Omori model are estimated in an adaptive manner using the Bayesian updating based on the aftershock events that had already taken place at each day elapsed and using the Italian generic sequence (Lolli and Gasperini 2003) as prior information. For the ETAS model, the real-time daily forecast of the spatio-temporal evolution of the L'Aquila sequence provided for the Italian Civil Protection for managing the emergency (Marzocchi and Lombardi, 2009) is utilized. Moreover, the parameters of the ground motion prediction relation proposed by Sabetta and Pugliese (1996) are updated adaptively and on a daily basis using Bayesian updating based on the ongoing aftershock sequence. Finally, the forecasted daily rates of exceeding (first-mode) spectral acceleration values are compared with observed rates of exceedance calculated based on the wave-forms that have actually taken place. References Jalayer, F., Asprone, D., Prota, A., Manfredi, G. (2011). A decision support system for post-earthquake reliability assessment of structures subjected to after-shocks: an application to L'Aquila earthquake, 2009. Bull. Earthquake Eng. 9(4) 997-1014. Jordan, T.H., Chen Y-T., Gasparini P., Madariaga R., Main I., Marzocchi W., Papadopoulos G., Sobolev G., Yamaoka K., and J. Zschau (2011). Operational earthquake forecasting: State of knowledge and guidelines for implementation, Ann. Geophys. 54(4) 315-391, doi 10.4401/ag-5350. Lolli, B., and P. Gasperini (2003). Aftershocks hazard in Italy part I: estimation of time-magnitude distribution model parameters and computation of probabilities of occurrence. Journal of Seismology 7(2) 235-257. Marzocchi, W., and A.M. Lombardi (2009). Real-time forecasting following a damaging earthquake, Geophys. Res. Lett. 36, L21302, doi: 10.1029/2009GL040233. Sabetta F., A. Pugliese (1996) Estimation of response spectra and simulation of nonstationary earthquake ground motions. Bull Seismol Soc Am 86(2) 337-352.

Coastal Adaptation Planning for Sea Level Rise and Extremes: A Global Model for Adaptation Decision-making at the Local Level Given Uncertain Climate Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turner, D.

2014-12-01

Understanding the potential economic and physical impacts of climate change on coastal resources involves evaluating a number of distinct adaptive responses. This paper presents a tool for such analysis, a spatially-disaggregated optimization model for adaptation to sea level rise (SLR) and storm surge, the Coastal Impact and Adaptation Model (CIAM). This decision-making framework fills a gap between very detailed studies of specific locations and overly aggregate global analyses. While CIAM is global in scope, the optimal adaptation strategy is determined at the local level, evaluating over 12,000 coastal segments as described in the DIVA database (Vafeidis et al. 2006). The decision to pursue a given adaptation measure depends on local socioeconomic factors like income, population, and land values and how they develop over time, relative to the magnitude of potential coastal impacts, based on geophysical attributes like inundation zones and storm surge. For example, the model's decision to protect or retreat considers the costs of constructing and maintaining coastal defenses versus those of relocating people and capital to minimize damages from land inundation and coastal storms. Uncertain storm surge events are modeled with a generalized extreme value distribution calibrated to data on local surge extremes. Adaptation is optimized for the near-term outlook, in an "act then learn then act" framework that is repeated over the model time horizon. This framework allows the adaptation strategy to be flexibly updated, reflecting the process of iterative risk management. CIAM provides new estimates of the economic costs of SLR; moreover, these detailed results can be compactly represented in a set of adaptation and damage functions for use in integrated assessment models. Alongside the optimal result, CIAM evaluates suboptimal cases and finds that global costs could increase by an order of magnitude, illustrating the importance of adaptive capacity and coastal policy.

LQG control of a deformable mirror adaptive optics system with time-delayed measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, David J.

1991-12-01

This thesis proposes a linear quadratic Gaussian (LQG) control law for a ground-based deformable mirror adaptive optics system. The incoming image wavefront is distorted, primarily in phase, due to the turbulent effects of the earth's atmosphere. The adaptive optics system attempts to compensate for the distortion with a deformable mirror. A Hartman wavefront sensor measures the degree of distortion in the image wavefront. The measurements are input to a Kalman filter which estimates the system states. The state estimates are processed by a linear quadratic regulator which generates the appropriate control voltages to apply to the deformable mirror actuators. The dynamics model for the atmospheric phase distortion consists of 14 Zernike coefficient states; each modeled as a first-order linear time-invariant shaping filter driven by zero-mean white Gaussian noise. The dynamics of the deformable mirror are also model as 14 Zernike coefficients with first-order deterministic dynamics. A significant reduction in total wavefront phase distortion is achieved in the presence of time-delayed measurements. Wavefront sensor sampling rate is the major factor limiting system performance. The Multimode Simulation for Optimal Filter Evaluation (MSOFE) software is the performance evaluation tool of choice for this research.

Performance Enhancement of Pharmacokinetic Diffuse Fluorescence Tomography by Use of Adaptive Extended Kalman Filtering.

PubMed

Wang, Xin; Wu, Linhui; Yi, Xi; Zhang, Yanqi; Zhang, Limin; Zhao, Huijuan; Gao, Feng

2015-01-01

Due to both the physiological and morphological differences in the vascularization between healthy and diseased tissues, pharmacokinetic diffuse fluorescence tomography (DFT) can provide contrast-enhanced and comprehensive information for tumor diagnosis and staging. In this regime, the extended Kalman filtering (EKF) based method shows numerous advantages including accurate modeling, online estimation of multiparameters, and universal applicability to any optical fluorophore. Nevertheless the performance of the conventional EKF highly hinges on the exact and inaccessible prior knowledge about the initial values. To address the above issues, an adaptive-EKF scheme is proposed based on a two-compartmental model for the enhancement, which utilizes a variable forgetting-factor to compensate the inaccuracy of the initial states and emphasize the effect of the current data. It is demonstrated using two-dimensional simulative investigations on a circular domain that the proposed adaptive-EKF can obtain preferable estimation of the pharmacokinetic-rates to the conventional-EKF and the enhanced-EKF in terms of quantitativeness, noise robustness, and initialization independence. Further three-dimensional numerical experiments on a digital mouse model validate the efficacy of the method as applied in realistic biological systems.

Adaptive framework to better characterize errors of apriori fluxes and observational residuals in a Bayesian setup for the urban flux inversions.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghosh, S.; Lopez-Coto, I.; Prasad, K.; Karion, A.; Mueller, K.; Gourdji, S.; Martin, C.; Whetstone, J. R.

2017-12-01

The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) supports the North-East Corridor Baltimore Washington (NEC-B/W) project and Indianapolis Flux Experiment (INFLUX) aiming to quantify sources of Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions as well as their uncertainties. These projects employ different flux estimation methods including top-down inversion approaches. The traditional Bayesian inversion method estimates emission distributions by updating prior information using atmospheric observations of Green House Gases (GHG) coupled to an atmospheric and dispersion model. The magnitude of the update is dependent upon the observed enhancement along with the assumed errors such as those associated with prior information and the atmospheric transport and dispersion model. These errors are specified within the inversion covariance matrices. The assumed structure and magnitude of the specified errors can have large impact on the emission estimates from the inversion. The main objective of this work is to build a data-adaptive model for these covariances matrices. We construct a synthetic data experiment using a Kalman Filter inversion framework (Lopez et al., 2017) employing different configurations of transport and dispersion model and an assumed prior. Unlike previous traditional Bayesian approaches, we estimate posterior emissions using regularized sample covariance matrices associated with prior errors to investigate whether the structure of the matrices help to better recover our hypothetical true emissions. To incorporate transport model error, we use ensemble of transport models combined with space-time analytical covariance to construct a covariance that accounts for errors in space and time. A Kalman Filter is then run using these covariances along with Maximum Likelihood Estimates (MLE) of the involved parameters. Preliminary results indicate that specifying sptio-temporally varying errors in the error covariances can improve the flux estimates and uncertainties. We also demonstrate that differences between the modeled and observed meteorology can be used to predict uncertainties associated with atmospheric transport and dispersion modeling which can help improve the skill of an inversion at urban scales.

Foot placement relies on state estimation during visually guided walking.

PubMed

Maeda, Rodrigo S; O'Connor, Shawn M; Donelan, J Maxwell; Marigold, Daniel S

2017-02-01

As we walk, we must accurately place our feet to stabilize our motion and to navigate our environment. We must also achieve this accuracy despite imperfect sensory feedback and unexpected disturbances. In this study we tested whether the nervous system uses state estimation to beneficially combine sensory feedback with forward model predictions to compensate for these challenges. Specifically, subjects wore prism lenses during a visually guided walking task, and we used trial-by-trial variation in prism lenses to add uncertainty to visual feedback and induce a reweighting of this input. To expose altered weighting, we added a consistent prism shift that required subjects to adapt their estimate of the visuomotor mapping relationship between a perceived target location and the motor command necessary to step to that position. With added prism noise, subjects responded to the consistent prism shift with smaller initial foot placement error but took longer to adapt, compatible with our mathematical model of the walking task that leverages state estimation to compensate for noise. Much like when we perform voluntary and discrete movements with our arms, it appears our nervous systems uses state estimation during walking to accurately reach our foot to the ground. Accurate foot placement is essential for safe walking. We used computational models and human walking experiments to test how our nervous system achieves this accuracy. We find that our control of foot placement beneficially combines sensory feedback with internal forward model predictions to accurately estimate the body's state. Our results match recent computational neuroscience findings for reaching movements, suggesting that state estimation is a general mechanism of human motor control. Copyright © 2017 the American Physiological Society.

Real-time stylistic prediction for whole-body human motions.

PubMed

Matsubara, Takamitsu; Hyon, Sang-Ho; Morimoto, Jun

2012-01-01

The ability to predict human motion is crucial in several contexts such as human tracking by computer vision and the synthesis of human-like computer graphics. Previous work has focused on off-line processes with well-segmented data; however, many applications such as robotics require real-time control with efficient computation. In this paper, we propose a novel approach called real-time stylistic prediction for whole-body human motions to satisfy these requirements. This approach uses a novel generative model to represent a whole-body human motion including rhythmic motion (e.g., walking) and discrete motion (e.g., jumping). The generative model is composed of a low-dimensional state (phase) dynamics and a two-factor observation model, allowing it to capture the diversity of motion styles in humans. A real-time adaptation algorithm was derived to estimate both state variables and style parameter of the model from non-stationary unlabeled sequential observations. Moreover, with a simple modification, the algorithm allows real-time adaptation even from incomplete (partial) observations. Based on the estimated state and style, a future motion sequence can be accurately predicted. In our implementation, it takes less than 15 ms for both adaptation and prediction at each observation. Our real-time stylistic prediction was evaluated for human walking, running, and jumping behaviors. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Noise stochastic corrected maximum a posteriori estimator for birefringence imaging using polarization-sensitive optical coherence tomography

PubMed Central

Kasaragod, Deepa; Makita, Shuichi; Hong, Young-Joo; Yasuno, Yoshiaki

2017-01-01

This paper presents a noise-stochastic corrected maximum a posteriori estimator for birefringence imaging using Jones matrix optical coherence tomography. The estimator described in this paper is based on the relationship between probability distribution functions of the measured birefringence and the effective signal to noise ratio (ESNR) as well as the true birefringence and the true ESNR. The Monte Carlo method is used to numerically describe this relationship and adaptive 2D kernel density estimation provides the likelihood for a posteriori estimation of the true birefringence. Improved estimation is shown for the new estimator with stochastic model of ESNR in comparison to the old estimator, both based on the Jones matrix noise model. A comparison with the mean estimator is also done. Numerical simulation validates the superiority of the new estimator. The superior performance of the new estimator was also shown by in vivo measurement of optic nerve head. PMID:28270974

Appraisal of adaptive neuro-fuzzy computing technique for estimating anti-obesity properties of a medicinal plant.

PubMed

Kazemipoor, Mahnaz; Hajifaraji, Majid; Radzi, Che Wan Jasimah Bt Wan Mohamed; Shamshirband, Shahaboddin; Petković, Dalibor; Mat Kiah, Miss Laiha

2015-01-01

This research examines the precision of an adaptive neuro-fuzzy computing technique in estimating the anti-obesity property of a potent medicinal plant in a clinical dietary intervention. Even though a number of mathematical functions such as SPSS analysis have been proposed for modeling the anti-obesity properties estimation in terms of reduction in body mass index (BMI), body fat percentage, and body weight loss, there are still disadvantages of the models like very demanding in terms of calculation time. Since it is a very crucial problem, in this paper a process was constructed which simulates the anti-obesity activities of caraway (Carum carvi) a traditional medicine on obese women with adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference (ANFIS) method. The ANFIS results are compared with the support vector regression (SVR) results using root-mean-square error (RMSE) and coefficient of determination (R(2)). The experimental results show that an improvement in predictive accuracy and capability of generalization can be achieved by the ANFIS approach. The following statistical characteristics are obtained for BMI loss estimation: RMSE=0.032118 and R(2)=0.9964 in ANFIS testing and RMSE=0.47287 and R(2)=0.361 in SVR testing. For fat loss estimation: RMSE=0.23787 and R(2)=0.8599 in ANFIS testing and RMSE=0.32822 and R(2)=0.7814 in SVR testing. For weight loss estimation: RMSE=0.00000035601 and R(2)=1 in ANFIS testing and RMSE=0.17192 and R(2)=0.6607 in SVR testing. Because of that, it can be applied for practical purposes. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Detecting an atomic clock frequency anomaly using an adaptive Kalman filter algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Huijie; Dong, Shaowu; Wu, Wenjun; Jiang, Meng; Wang, Weixiong

2018-06-01

The abnormal frequencies of an atomic clock mainly include frequency jump and frequency drift jump. Atomic clock frequency anomaly detection is a key technique in time-keeping. The Kalman filter algorithm, as a linear optimal algorithm, has been widely used in real-time detection for abnormal frequency. In order to obtain an optimal state estimation, the observation model and dynamic model of the Kalman filter algorithm should satisfy Gaussian white noise conditions. The detection performance is degraded if anomalies affect the observation model or dynamic model. The idea of the adaptive Kalman filter algorithm, applied to clock frequency anomaly detection, uses the residuals given by the prediction for building ‘an adaptive factor’ the prediction state covariance matrix is real-time corrected by the adaptive factor. The results show that the model error is reduced and the detection performance is improved. The effectiveness of the algorithm is verified by the frequency jump simulation, the frequency drift jump simulation and the measured data of the atomic clock by using the chi-square test.

Semi-analytical model of cross-borehole flow experiments for fractured medium characterization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roubinet, D.; Irving, J.; Day-Lewis, F. D.

2014-12-01

The study of fractured rocks is extremely important in a wide variety of research fields where the fractures and faults can represent either rapid access to some resource of interest or potential pathways for the migration of contaminants in the subsurface. Identification of their presence and determination of their properties are critical and challenging tasks that have led to numerous fracture characterization methods. Among these methods, cross-borehole flowmeter analysis aims to evaluate fracture connections and hydraulic properties from vertical-flow-velocity measurements conducted in one or more observation boreholes under forced hydraulic conditions. Previous studies have demonstrated that analysis of these data can provide important information on fracture connectivity, transmissivity, and storativity. Estimating these properties requires the development of analytical and/or numerical modeling tools that are well adapted to the complexity of the problem. Quantitative analysis of cross-borehole flowmeter experiments, in particular, requires modeling formulations that: (i) can be adapted to a variety of fracture and experimental configurations; (ii) can take into account interactions between the boreholes because their radii of influence may overlap; and (iii) can be readily cast into an inversion framework that allows for not only the estimation of fracture hydraulic properties, but also an assessment of estimation error. To this end, we present a new semi-analytical formulation for cross-borehole flow in fractured media that links transient vertical-flow velocities measured in one or a series of observation wells during hydraulic forcing to the transmissivity and storativity of the fractures intersected by these wells. Our model addresses the above needs and provides a flexible and computationally efficient semi-analytical framework having strong potential for future adaptation to more complex configurations. The proposed modeling approach is demonstrated in the context of sensitivity analysis for a relatively simple two-fracture synthetic problem, as well as in the context of field-data analysis for fracture connectivity and estimation of corresponding hydraulic properties.

Bayesian calibration of terrestrial ecosystem models: A study of advanced Markov chain Monte Carlo methods

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lu, Dan; Ricciuto, Daniel; Walker, Anthony

Calibration of terrestrial ecosystem models is important but challenging. Bayesian inference implemented by Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling provides a comprehensive framework to estimate model parameters and associated uncertainties using their posterior distributions. The effectiveness and efficiency of the method strongly depend on the MCMC algorithm used. In this study, a Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) algorithm was used to estimate posterior distributions of 21 parameters for the data assimilation linked ecosystem carbon (DALEC) model using 14 years of daily net ecosystem exchange data collected at the Harvard Forest Environmental Measurement Site eddy-flux tower. The DREAM is a multi-chainmore » method and uses differential evolution technique for chain movement, allowing it to be efficiently applied to high-dimensional problems, and can reliably estimate heavy-tailed and multimodal distributions that are difficult for single-chain schemes using a Gaussian proposal distribution. The results were evaluated against the popular Adaptive Metropolis (AM) scheme. DREAM indicated that two parameters controlling autumn phenology have multiple modes in their posterior distributions while AM only identified one mode. The calibration of DREAM resulted in a better model fit and predictive performance compared to the AM. DREAM provides means for a good exploration of the posterior distributions of model parameters. Lastly, it reduces the risk of false convergence to a local optimum and potentially improves the predictive performance of the calibrated model.« less

Bayesian calibration of terrestrial ecosystem models: A study of advanced Markov chain Monte Carlo methods

DOE PAGES

Lu, Dan; Ricciuto, Daniel; Walker, Anthony; ...

2017-02-22

Calibration of terrestrial ecosystem models is important but challenging. Bayesian inference implemented by Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling provides a comprehensive framework to estimate model parameters and associated uncertainties using their posterior distributions. The effectiveness and efficiency of the method strongly depend on the MCMC algorithm used. In this study, a Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) algorithm was used to estimate posterior distributions of 21 parameters for the data assimilation linked ecosystem carbon (DALEC) model using 14 years of daily net ecosystem exchange data collected at the Harvard Forest Environmental Measurement Site eddy-flux tower. The DREAM is a multi-chainmore » method and uses differential evolution technique for chain movement, allowing it to be efficiently applied to high-dimensional problems, and can reliably estimate heavy-tailed and multimodal distributions that are difficult for single-chain schemes using a Gaussian proposal distribution. The results were evaluated against the popular Adaptive Metropolis (AM) scheme. DREAM indicated that two parameters controlling autumn phenology have multiple modes in their posterior distributions while AM only identified one mode. The calibration of DREAM resulted in a better model fit and predictive performance compared to the AM. DREAM provides means for a good exploration of the posterior distributions of model parameters. Lastly, it reduces the risk of false convergence to a local optimum and potentially improves the predictive performance of the calibrated model.« less

The physics of powerlifting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Radenković, Lazar; Nešić, Ljubiša

2018-05-01

The main contribution of this paper is didactic adaptation of the biomechanical analysis of the three main lifts in powerlifting (squat, bench press, deadlift). We used simple models that can easily be understood by undergraduate college students to estimate the values of various physical quantities during powerlifting. Specifically, we showed how plate choice affects the bench press and estimated spine loads and torques at hip and knee during lifting. Theoretical calculations showed good agreement with experimental data, proving that the models are valid.

Model Adaptation for Prognostics in a Particle Filtering Framework

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Saha, Bhaskar; Goebel, Kai Frank

2011-01-01

One of the key motivating factors for using particle filters for prognostics is the ability to include model parameters as part of the state vector to be estimated. This performs model adaptation in conjunction with state tracking, and thus, produces a tuned model that can used for long term predictions. This feature of particle filters works in most part due to the fact that they are not subject to the "curse of dimensionality", i.e. the exponential growth of computational complexity with state dimension. However, in practice, this property holds for "well-designed" particle filters only as dimensionality increases. This paper explores the notion of wellness of design in the context of predicting remaining useful life for individual discharge cycles of Li-ion batteries. Prognostic metrics are used to analyze the tradeoff between different model designs and prediction performance. Results demonstrate how sensitivity analysis may be used to arrive at a well-designed prognostic model that can take advantage of the model adaptation properties of a particle filter.

A Comparison of Item Selection Procedures Using Different Ability Estimation Methods in Computerized Adaptive Testing Based on the Generalized Partial Credit Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ho, Tsung-Han

2010-01-01

Computerized adaptive testing (CAT) provides a highly efficient alternative to the paper-and-pencil test. By selecting items that match examinees' ability levels, CAT not only can shorten test length and administration time but it can also increase measurement precision and reduce measurement error. In CAT, maximum information (MI) is the most…

Sequential reconstruction of driving-forces from nonlinear nonstationary dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Güntürkün, Ulaş

2010-07-01

This paper describes a functional analysis-based method for the estimation of driving-forces from nonlinear dynamic systems. The driving-forces account for the perturbation inputs induced by the external environment or the secular variations in the internal variables of the system. The proposed algorithm is applicable to the problems for which there is too little or no prior knowledge to build a rigorous mathematical model of the unknown dynamics. We derive the estimator conditioned on the differentiability of the unknown system’s mapping, and smoothness of the driving-force. The proposed algorithm is an adaptive sequential realization of the blind prediction error method, where the basic idea is to predict the observables, and retrieve the driving-force from the prediction error. Our realization of this idea is embodied by predicting the observables one-step into the future using a bank of echo state networks (ESN) in an online fashion, and then extracting the raw estimates from the prediction error and smoothing these estimates in two adaptive filtering stages. The adaptive nature of the algorithm enables to retrieve both slowly and rapidly varying driving-forces accurately, which are illustrated by simulations. Logistic and Moran-Ricker maps are studied in controlled experiments, exemplifying chaotic state and stochastic measurement models. The algorithm is also applied to the estimation of a driving-force from another nonlinear dynamic system that is stochastic in both state and measurement equations. The results are judged by the posterior Cramer-Rao lower bounds. The method is finally put into test on a real-world application; extracting sun’s magnetic flux from the sunspot time series.

Robust Multi-Frame Adaptive Optics Image Restoration Algorithm Using Maximum Likelihood Estimation with Poisson Statistics.

PubMed

Li, Dongming; Sun, Changming; Yang, Jinhua; Liu, Huan; Peng, Jiaqi; Zhang, Lijuan

2017-04-06

An adaptive optics (AO) system provides real-time compensation for atmospheric turbulence. However, an AO image is usually of poor contrast because of the nature of the imaging process, meaning that the image contains information coming from both out-of-focus and in-focus planes of the object, which also brings about a loss in quality. In this paper, we present a robust multi-frame adaptive optics image restoration algorithm via maximum likelihood estimation. Our proposed algorithm uses a maximum likelihood method with image regularization as the basic principle, and constructs the joint log likelihood function for multi-frame AO images based on a Poisson distribution model. To begin with, a frame selection method based on image variance is applied to the observed multi-frame AO images to select images with better quality to improve the convergence of a blind deconvolution algorithm. Then, by combining the imaging conditions and the AO system properties, a point spread function estimation model is built. Finally, we develop our iterative solutions for AO image restoration addressing the joint deconvolution issue. We conduct a number of experiments to evaluate the performances of our proposed algorithm. Experimental results show that our algorithm produces accurate AO image restoration results and outperforms the current state-of-the-art blind deconvolution methods.

Adaptive control based on an on-line parameter estimation of an upper limb exoskeleton.

PubMed

Riani, Akram; Madani, Tarek; Hadri, Abdelhafid El; Benallegue, Abdelaziz

2017-07-01

This paper presents an adaptive control strategy for an upper-limb exoskeleton based on an on-line dynamic parameter estimator. The objective is to improve the control performance of this system that plays a critical role in assisting patients for shoulder, elbow and wrist joint movements. In general, the dynamic parameters of the human limb are unknown and differ from a person to another, which degrade the performances of the exoskeleton-human control system. For this reason, the proposed control scheme contains a supplementary loop based on a new efficient on-line estimator of the dynamic parameters. Indeed, the latter is acting upon the parameter adaptation of the controller to ensure the performances of the system in the presence of parameter uncertainties and perturbations. The exoskeleton used in this work is presented and a physical model of the exoskeleton interacting with a 7 Degree of Freedom (DoF) upper limb model is generated using the SimMechanics library of MatLab/Simulink. To illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach, an example of passive rehabilitation movements is performed using multi-body dynamic simulation. The aims is to maneuver the exoskeleton that drive the upper limb to track desired trajectories in the case of the passive arm movements.

Robust Multi-Frame Adaptive Optics Image Restoration Algorithm Using Maximum Likelihood Estimation with Poisson Statistics

PubMed Central

Li, Dongming; Sun, Changming; Yang, Jinhua; Liu, Huan; Peng, Jiaqi; Zhang, Lijuan

2017-01-01

An adaptive optics (AO) system provides real-time compensation for atmospheric turbulence. However, an AO image is usually of poor contrast because of the nature of the imaging process, meaning that the image contains information coming from both out-of-focus and in-focus planes of the object, which also brings about a loss in quality. In this paper, we present a robust multi-frame adaptive optics image restoration algorithm via maximum likelihood estimation. Our proposed algorithm uses a maximum likelihood method with image regularization as the basic principle, and constructs the joint log likelihood function for multi-frame AO images based on a Poisson distribution model. To begin with, a frame selection method based on image variance is applied to the observed multi-frame AO images to select images with better quality to improve the convergence of a blind deconvolution algorithm. Then, by combining the imaging conditions and the AO system properties, a point spread function estimation model is built. Finally, we develop our iterative solutions for AO image restoration addressing the joint deconvolution issue. We conduct a number of experiments to evaluate the performances of our proposed algorithm. Experimental results show that our algorithm produces accurate AO image restoration results and outperforms the current state-of-the-art blind deconvolution methods. PMID:28383503

LMI-based adaptive reliable H∞ static output feedback control against switched actuator failures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

An, Liwei; Zhai, Ding; Dong, Jiuxiang; Zhang, Qingling

2017-08-01

This paper investigates the H∞ static output feedback (SOF) control problem for switched linear system under arbitrary switching, where the actuator failure models are considered to depend on switching signal. An active reliable control scheme is developed by combination of linear matrix inequality (LMI) method and adaptive mechanism. First, by exploiting variable substitution and Finsler's lemma, new LMI conditions are given for designing the SOF controller. Compared to the existing results, the proposed design conditions are more relaxed and can be applied to a wider class of no-fault linear systems. Then a novel adaptive mechanism is established, where the inverses of switched failure scaling factors are estimated online to accommodate the effects of actuator failure on systems. Two main difficulties arise: first is how to design the switched adaptive laws to prevent the missing of estimating information due to switching; second is how to construct a common Lyapunov function based on a switched estimate error term. It is shown that the new method can give less conservative results than that for the traditional control design with fixed gain matrices. Finally, simulation results on the HiMAT aircraft are given to show the effectiveness of the proposed approaches.

An innovative approach for Predicting Farmers' Adaptive Behavior at the Large Watershed Scale: Implications for Water Quality and Crop Yields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valcu-Lisman, A. M.; Gassman, P. W.; Arritt, R. W.; Kling, C.; Arbuckle, J. G.; Roesch-McNally, G. E.; Panagopoulos, Y.

2017-12-01

Projected changes in the climatic patterns (higher temperatures, changes in extreme precipitation events, and higher levels of humidity) will affect agricultural cropping and management systems in major agricultural production areas. The concept of adaption to new climatic or economic conditions is an important aspect of the agricultural decision-making process. Adopting cover crops, reduced tillage, extending the drainage systems and adjusting crop management are only a few examples of adaptive actions. These actions can be easily implemented as long as they have private benefits (increased profits, reduced risk). However, each adaptive action has a different impact on water quality. Cover crops and no till usually have a positive impact on water quality, but increased tile drainage typically results in more degraded water quality due primarily to increased export of soluble nitrogen and phosphorus. The goal of this research is to determine the changes in water quality as well in crop yields as farmers undertake these adaptive measures. To answer this research question, we need to estimate the likelihood that these actions will occur, identify the agricultural areas where these actions are most likely to be implemented, and simulate the water quality impacts associated with each of these scenarios. We apply our modeling efforts to the whole Upper-Mississippi River Basin Basin (UMRB) and the Ohio-Tennessee River Basin (OTRB). These two areas are critical source regions for the re-occurring hypoxic zone in the gulf of Mexico. The likelihood of each adaptive agricultural action is estimated using data from a survey conducted in 2012. A large, representative sample of farmers in the Corn Belt was used in the survey to elicit behavioral intentions regarding three of the most important agricultural adaptation strategies (no-till, cover crops and tile drainage). We use these data to study the relationship between intent to adapt, farmer characteristics, farm characteristics, and weather characteristics, and to predict the probability of adoption for each action. Next, we use these estimated probabilities to create different scenarios for the two large scale-watersheds. Finally, we simulate the impact of these scenarios on water quality using calibrated UMRB and OTRB SWAT water quality models.

Adapt-Mix: learning local genetic correlation structure improves summary statistics-based analyses

PubMed Central

Park, Danny S.; Brown, Brielin; Eng, Celeste; Huntsman, Scott; Hu, Donglei; Torgerson, Dara G.; Burchard, Esteban G.; Zaitlen, Noah

2015-01-01

Motivation: Approaches to identifying new risk loci, training risk prediction models, imputing untyped variants and fine-mapping causal variants from summary statistics of genome-wide association studies are playing an increasingly important role in the human genetics community. Current summary statistics-based methods rely on global ‘best guess’ reference panels to model the genetic correlation structure of the dataset being studied. This approach, especially in admixed populations, has the potential to produce misleading results, ignores variation in local structure and is not feasible when appropriate reference panels are missing or small. Here, we develop a method, Adapt-Mix, that combines information across all available reference panels to produce estimates of local genetic correlation structure for summary statistics-based methods in arbitrary populations. Results: We applied Adapt-Mix to estimate the genetic correlation structure of both admixed and non-admixed individuals using simulated and real data. We evaluated our method by measuring the performance of two summary statistics-based methods: imputation and joint-testing. When using our method as opposed to the current standard of ‘best guess’ reference panels, we observed a 28% decrease in mean-squared error for imputation and a 73.7% decrease in mean-squared error for joint-testing. Availability and implementation: Our method is publicly available in a software package called ADAPT-Mix available at https://github.com/dpark27/adapt_mix. Contact: noah.zaitlen@ucsf.edu PMID:26072481

Nonparametric Fine Tuning of Mixtures: Application to Non-Life Insurance Claims Distribution Estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sardet, Laure; Patilea, Valentin

When pricing a specific insurance premium, actuary needs to evaluate the claims cost distribution for the warranty. Traditional actuarial methods use parametric specifications to model claims distribution, like lognormal, Weibull and Pareto laws. Mixtures of such distributions allow to improve the flexibility of the parametric approach and seem to be quite well-adapted to capture the skewness, the long tails as well as the unobserved heterogeneity among the claims. In this paper, instead of looking for a finely tuned mixture with many components, we choose a parsimonious mixture modeling, typically a two or three-component mixture. Next, we use the mixture cumulative distribution function (CDF) to transform data into the unit interval where we apply a beta-kernel smoothing procedure. A bandwidth rule adapted to our methodology is proposed. Finally, the beta-kernel density estimate is back-transformed to recover an estimate of the original claims density. The beta-kernel smoothing provides an automatic fine-tuning of the parsimonious mixture and thus avoids inference in more complex mixture models with many parameters. We investigate the empirical performance of the new method in the estimation of the quantiles with simulated nonnegative data and the quantiles of the individual claims distribution in a non-life insurance application.

Basic Investigations of Dynamic Travel Time Estimation Model for Traffic Signals Control Using Information from Optical Beacons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okutani, Iwao; Mitsui, Tatsuro; Nakada, Yusuke

In this paper put forward are neuron-type models, i.e., neural network model, wavelet neuron model and three layered wavelet neuron model(WV3), for estimating traveling time between signalized intersections in order to facilitate adaptive setting of traffic signal parameters such as green time and offset. Model validation tests using simulated data reveal that compared to other models, WV3 model works very fast in learning process and can produce more accurate estimates of travel time. Also, it is exhibited that up-link information obtainable from optical beacons, i.e., travel time observed during the former cycle time in this case, makes a crucial input variable to the models in that there isn't any substantial difference between the change of estimated and simulated travel time with the change of green time or offset when up-link information is employed as input while there appears big discrepancy between them when not employed.

Adaptive fuzzy-neural-network control for maglev transportation system.

PubMed

Wai, Rong-Jong; Lee, Jeng-Dao

2008-01-01

A magnetic-levitation (maglev) transportation system including levitation and propulsion control is a subject of considerable scientific interest because of highly nonlinear and unstable behaviors. In this paper, the dynamic model of a maglev transportation system including levitated electromagnets and a propulsive linear induction motor (LIM) based on the concepts of mechanical geometry and motion dynamics is developed first. Then, a model-based sliding-mode control (SMC) strategy is introduced. In order to alleviate chattering phenomena caused by the inappropriate selection of uncertainty bound, a simple bound estimation algorithm is embedded in the SMC strategy to form an adaptive sliding-mode control (ASMC) scheme. However, this estimation algorithm is always a positive value so that tracking errors introduced by any uncertainty will cause the estimated bound increase even to infinity with time. Therefore, it further designs an adaptive fuzzy-neural-network control (AFNNC) scheme by imitating the SMC strategy for the maglev transportation system. In the model-free AFNNC, online learning algorithms are designed to cope with the problem of chattering phenomena caused by the sign action in SMC design, and to ensure the stability of the controlled system without the requirement of auxiliary compensated controllers despite the existence of uncertainties. The outputs of the AFNNC scheme can be directly supplied to the electromagnets and LIM without complicated control transformations for relaxing strict constrains in conventional model-based control methodologies. The effectiveness of the proposed control schemes for the maglev transportation system is verified by numerical simulations, and the superiority of the AFNNC scheme is indicated in comparison with the SMC and ASMC strategies.

Evaluation of a high-resolution patient-specific model of the electrically stimulated cochlea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cakir, Ahmet; Dwyer, Robert T.; Noble, Jack H.

2017-03-01

Cochlear implants (CIs) are considered standard treatment for patients who experience sensorineural hearing loss. Although these devices have been remarkably successful at restoring hearing, it is rare to achieve natural fidelity, and many patients experience poor outcomes. Our group has developed the first image-guided CI programming (IGCIP) technique where the positions of the electrodes are found in CT images and used to estimate neural activation patterns, which is unique information that audiologists can use to define patient-specific processor settings. In our current system, neural activation is estimated using only the distance from each electrode to the neural activation sites. This approach might be less accurate than using a high-resolution electro-anatomical model (EAM) of the electrically stimulated cochlea to perform physics-based estimation of neural activation. In this work, we propose a patientcustomized EAM approach where the EAM is spatially and electrically adapted to a patient-specific configuration. Spatial adaptation is done through non-rigid registration of the model with the patient CT image. Electrical adaptation is done by adjusting tissue resistivity parameters so that the intra-cochlear voltage distributions predicted by the model best match those directly measured for the patient via their implant. We demonstrated our approach for N=7 patients. We found that our approach results in mean percent differences between direct and simulated measurements of voltage distributions of 11%. In addition, visual comparison shows the simulated and measured voltage distributions are qualitatively in good agreement. This represents a crucial step toward developing and validating the first in vivo patient-specific cochlea EAMs.

A proposed Kalman filter algorithm for estimation of unmeasured output variables for an F100 turbofan engine

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Alag, Gurbux S.; Gilyard, Glenn B.

1990-01-01

To develop advanced control systems for optimizing aircraft engine performance, unmeasurable output variables must be estimated. The estimation has to be done in an uncertain environment and be adaptable to varying degrees of modeling errors and other variations in engine behavior over its operational life cycle. This paper represented an approach to estimate unmeasured output variables by explicitly modeling the effects of off-nominal engine behavior as biases on the measurable output variables. A state variable model accommodating off-nominal behavior is developed for the engine, and Kalman filter concepts are used to estimate the required variables. Results are presented from nonlinear engine simulation studies as well as the application of the estimation algorithm on actual flight data. The formulation presented has a wide range of application since it is not restricted or tailored to the particular application described.

Estimation of parameters and basic reproduction ratio for Japanese encephalitis transmission in the Philippines using sequential Monte Carlo filter

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

We developed a sequential Monte Carlo filter to estimate the states and the parameters in a stochastic model of Japanese Encephalitis (JE) spread in the Philippines. This method is particularly important for its adaptability to the availability of new incidence data. This method can also capture the...

Cost Estimates by Program Mechanism, Appendix K. Vol. II, A Plan for Managing the Development, Implementation and Operation of a Model Elementary Teacher Education Program.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cole, R. D.; Hamreus, D. G.

This appendix presents the following tables of program component cost estimates: 1) instructional design and development; 2) instructional operations; 3) program management--policy creation and adoption, and policy and program execution; 4) program coordination--instructional objectives, adaptation, accommodation, and dissemination; 5) general…

Restoration of Monotonicity Respecting in Dynamic Regression

PubMed Central

Huang, Yijian

2017-01-01

Dynamic regression models, including the quantile regression model and Aalen’s additive hazards model, are widely adopted to investigate evolving covariate effects. Yet lack of monotonicity respecting with standard estimation procedures remains an outstanding issue. Advances have recently been made, but none provides a complete resolution. In this article, we propose a novel adaptive interpolation method to restore monotonicity respecting, by successively identifying and then interpolating nearest monotonicity-respecting points of an original estimator. Under mild regularity conditions, the resulting regression coefficient estimator is shown to be asymptotically equivalent to the original. Our numerical studies have demonstrated that the proposed estimator is much more smooth and may have better finite-sample efficiency than the original as well as, when available as only in special cases, other competing monotonicity-respecting estimators. Illustration with a clinical study is provided. PMID:29430068

An exploratory path model of the relationships between positive and negative adaptation to cancer on quality of life among non-Hodgkin lymphoma survivors.

PubMed

Bryant, Ashley Leak; Smith, Sophia K; Zimmer, Catherine; Crandell, Jamie; Jenerette, Coretta M; Bailey, Donald E; Zimmerman, Sheryl; Mayer, Deborah K

2015-01-01

Adaptation is an ongoing, cognitive process with continuous appraisal of the cancer experience by the survivor. This exploratory study tested a path model examining the personal (demographic, disease, and psychosocial) characteristics associated with quality of life (QOL) and whether or not adaptation to living with cancer may mediate these effects. This study employed path analysis to estimate adaptation to cancer. A cross-sectional sample of NHL survivors (N = 750) was used to test the model. Eligible participants were ≥ 18 years, at least 2 years post-diagnosis, and living with or without active disease. Sixty-eight percent of the variance was accounted for in QOL. The strongest effect (-0.596) was direct by negative adaptation, approximately 3 times that of positive adaptation (0.193). The strongest demographic total effects on QOL were age and social support; <65 years of age had better QOL and better adaptation compared to those ≥ 65. Of the disease characteristics, comorbidity score had the strongest direct effect on QOL; each additional comorbidity was associated with a 0.309 standard deviation decline on QOL. There were no fully mediated effects through positive adaptation alone. Our exploratory findings support the coexistence of positive and negative adaptations perception as mediators of personal characteristics of the cancer experience. Negative adaptation can affect QOL in a positive way. Cancer survivorship is simultaneously shaped by both positive and negative adaptation with future research and implications for practice aimed at improving QOL.

Estimating the effect of the reorganization of interactions on the adaptability of species to changing environments.

PubMed

Cenci, Simone; Montero-Castaño, Ana; Saavedra, Serguei

2018-01-21

A major challenge in community ecology is to understand how species respond to environmental changes. Previous studies have shown that the reorganization of interactions among co-occurring species can modulate their chances to adapt to novel environmental conditions. Moreover, empirical evidence has shown that these ecological dynamics typically facilitate the persistence of groups of species rather than entire communities. However, so far, we have no systematic methodology to identify those groups of species with the highest or lowest chances to adapt to new environments through a reorganization of their interactions. Yet, this could prove extremely valuable for developing new conservation strategies. Here, we introduce a theoretical framework to estimate the effect of the reorganization of interactions on the adaptability of a group of species, within a community, to novel environmental conditions. We introduce the concept of the adaptation space of a group of species based on a feasibility analysis of a population dynamics model. We define the adaptation space of a group as the set of environmental conditions that can be made compatible with its persistence thorough the reorganization of interactions among species within the group. The larger the adaptation space of a group, the larger its likelihood to adapt to a novel environment. We show that the interactions in the community outside a group can act as structural constraints and be used to quantitatively compare the size of the adaptation space among different groups of species within a community. To test our theoretical framework, we perform a data analysis on several pairs of natural and artificially perturbed ecological communities. Overall, we find that the groups of species present in both control and perturbed communities are among the ones with the largest adaptation space. We believe that the results derived from our framework point out towards new directions to understand and estimate the adaptability of species to changing environments. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Incorporating evolutionary processes into population viability models.

PubMed

Pierson, Jennifer C; Beissinger, Steven R; Bragg, Jason G; Coates, David J; Oostermeijer, J Gerard B; Sunnucks, Paul; Schumaker, Nathan H; Trotter, Meredith V; Young, Andrew G

2015-06-01

We examined how ecological and evolutionary (eco-evo) processes in population dynamics could be better integrated into population viability analysis (PVA). Complementary advances in computation and population genomics can be combined into an eco-evo PVA to offer powerful new approaches to understand the influence of evolutionary processes on population persistence. We developed the mechanistic basis of an eco-evo PVA using individual-based models with individual-level genotype tracking and dynamic genotype-phenotype mapping to model emergent population-level effects, such as local adaptation and genetic rescue. We then outline how genomics can allow or improve parameter estimation for PVA models by providing genotypic information at large numbers of loci for neutral and functional genome regions. As climate change and other threatening processes increase in rate and scale, eco-evo PVAs will become essential research tools to evaluate the effects of adaptive potential, evolutionary rescue, and locally adapted traits on persistence. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

Solid oxide fuel cell anode image segmentation based on a novel quantum-inspired fuzzy clustering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fu, Xiaowei; Xiang, Yuhan; Chen, Li; Xu, Xin; Li, Xi

2015-12-01

High quality microstructure modeling can optimize the design of fuel cells. For three-phase accurate identification of Solid Oxide Fuel Cell (SOFC) microstructure, this paper proposes a novel image segmentation method on YSZ/Ni anode Optical Microscopic (OM) images. According to Quantum Signal Processing (QSP), the proposed approach exploits a quantum-inspired adaptive fuzziness factor to adaptively estimate the energy function in the fuzzy system based on Markov Random Filed (MRF). Before defuzzification, a quantum-inspired probability distribution based on distance and gray correction is proposed, which can adaptively adjust the inaccurate probability estimation of uncertain points caused by noises and edge points. In this study, the proposed method improves accuracy and effectiveness of three-phase identification on the micro-investigation. It provides firm foundation to investigate the microstructural evolution and its related properties.

Adaptive finite element method for turbulent flow near a propeller

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pelletier, Dominique; Ilinca, Florin; Hetu, Jean-Francois

1994-11-01

This paper presents an adaptive finite element method based on remeshing to solve incompressible turbulent free shear flow near a propeller. Solutions are obtained in primitive variables using a highly accurate finite element approximation on unstructured grids. Turbulence is modeled by a mixing length formulation. Two general purpose error estimators, which take into account swirl and the variation of the eddy viscosity, are presented and applied to the turbulent wake of a propeller. Predictions compare well with experimental measurements. The proposed adaptive scheme is robust, reliable and cost effective.

Distributed adaptive asymptotically consensus tracking control of uncertain Euler-Lagrange systems under directed graph condition.

PubMed

Wang, Wei; Wen, Changyun; Huang, Jiangshuai; Fan, Huijin

2017-11-01

In this paper, a backstepping based distributed adaptive control scheme is proposed for multiple uncertain Euler-Lagrange systems under directed graph condition. The common desired trajectory is allowed totally unknown by part of the subsystems and the linearly parameterized trajectory model assumed in currently available results is no longer needed. To compensate the effects due to unknown trajectory information, a smooth function of consensus errors and certain positive integrable functions are introduced in designing virtual control inputs. Besides, to overcome the difficulty of completely counteracting the coupling terms of distributed consensus errors and parameter estimation errors in the presence of asymmetric Laplacian matrix, extra information transmission of local parameter estimates are introduced among linked subsystem and adaptive gain technique is adopted to generate distributed torque inputs. It is shown that with the proposed distributed adaptive control scheme, global uniform boundedness of all the closed-loop signals and asymptotically output consensus tracking can be achieved. Copyright © 2017 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Forecasting Hourly Water Demands With Seasonal Autoregressive Models for Real-Time Application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Jinduan; Boccelli, Dominic L.

2018-02-01

Consumer water demands are not typically measured at temporal or spatial scales adequate to support real-time decision making, and recent approaches for estimating unobserved demands using observed hydraulic measurements are generally not capable of forecasting demands and uncertainty information. While time series modeling has shown promise for representing total system demands, these models have generally not been evaluated at spatial scales appropriate for representative real-time modeling. This study investigates the use of a double-seasonal time series model to capture daily and weekly autocorrelations to both total system demands and regional aggregated demands at a scale that would capture demand variability across a distribution system. Emphasis was placed on the ability to forecast demands and quantify uncertainties with results compared to traditional time series pattern-based demand models as well as nonseasonal and single-seasonal time series models. Additional research included the implementation of an adaptive-parameter estimation scheme to update the time series model when unobserved changes occurred in the system. For two case studies, results showed that (1) for the smaller-scale aggregated water demands, the log-transformed time series model resulted in improved forecasts, (2) the double-seasonal model outperformed other models in terms of forecasting errors, and (3) the adaptive adjustment of parameters during forecasting improved the accuracy of the generated prediction intervals. These results illustrate the capabilities of time series modeling to forecast both water demands and uncertainty estimates at spatial scales commensurate for real-time modeling applications and provide a foundation for developing a real-time integrated demand-hydraulic model.

An adaptive interpolation scheme for molecular potential energy surfaces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kowalewski, Markus; Larsson, Elisabeth; Heryudono, Alfa

2016-08-01

The calculation of potential energy surfaces for quantum dynamics can be a time consuming task—especially when a high level of theory for the electronic structure calculation is required. We propose an adaptive interpolation algorithm based on polyharmonic splines combined with a partition of unity approach. The adaptive node refinement allows to greatly reduce the number of sample points by employing a local error estimate. The algorithm and its scaling behavior are evaluated for a model function in 2, 3, and 4 dimensions. The developed algorithm allows for a more rapid and reliable interpolation of a potential energy surface within a given accuracy compared to the non-adaptive version.

Global adaptive control for uncertain nonaffine nonlinear hysteretic systems.

PubMed

Liu, Yong-Hua; Huang, Liangpei; Xiao, Dongming; Guo, Yong

2015-09-01

In this paper, the global output tracking is investigated for a class of uncertain nonlinear hysteretic systems with nonaffine structures. By combining the solution properties of the hysteresis model with the novel backstepping approach, a robust adaptive control algorithm is developed without constructing a hysteresis inverse. The proposed control scheme is further modified to tackle the bounded disturbances by adaptively estimating their bounds. It is rigorously proven that the designed adaptive controllers can guarantee global stability of the closed-loop system. Two numerical examples are provided to show the effectiveness of the proposed control schemes. Copyright © 2015 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Adaptive output feedback control of flexible-joint robots using neural networks: dynamic surface design approach.

PubMed

Yoo, Sung Jin; Park, Jin Bae; Choi, Yoon Ho

2008-10-01

In this paper, we propose a new robust output feedback control approach for flexible-joint electrically driven (FJED) robots via the observer dynamic surface design technique. The proposed method only requires position measurements of the FJED robots. To estimate the link and actuator velocity information of the FJED robots with model uncertainties, we develop an adaptive observer using self-recurrent wavelet neural networks (SRWNNs). The SRWNNs are used to approximate model uncertainties in both robot (link) dynamics and actuator dynamics, and all their weights are trained online. Based on the designed observer, the link position tracking controller using the estimated states is induced from the dynamic surface design procedure. Therefore, the proposed controller can be designed more simply than the observer backstepping controller. From the Lyapunov stability analysis, it is shown that all signals in a closed-loop adaptive system are uniformly ultimately bounded. Finally, the simulation results on a three-link FJED robot are presented to validate the good position tracking performance and robustness of the proposed control system against payload uncertainties and external disturbances.

CAT Model with Personalized Algorithm for Evaluation of Estimated Student Knowledge

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Andjelic, Svetlana; Cekerevac, Zoran

2014-01-01

This article presents the original model of the computer adaptive testing and grade formation, based on scientifically recognized theories. The base of the model is a personalized algorithm for selection of questions depending on the accuracy of the answer to the previous question. The test is divided into three basic levels of difficulty, and the…

Low Boom Configuration Analysis with FUN3D Adjoint Simulation Framework

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Park, Michael A.

2011-01-01

Off-body pressure, forces, and moments for the Gulfstream Low Boom Model are computed with a Reynolds Averaged Navier Stokes solver coupled with the Spalart-Allmaras (SA) turbulence model. This is the first application of viscous output-based adaptation to reduce estimated discretization errors in off-body pressure for a wing body configuration. The output adaptation approach is compared to an a priori grid adaptation technique designed to resolve the signature on the centerline by stretching and aligning the grid to the freestream Mach angle. The output-based approach produced good predictions of centerline and off-centerline measurements. Eddy viscosity predicted by the SA turbulence model increased significantly with grid adaptation. Computed lift as a function of drag compares well with wind tunnel measurements for positive lift, but predicted lift, drag, and pitching moment as a function of angle of attack has significant differences from the measured data. The sensitivity of longitudinal forces and moment to grid refinement is much smaller than the differences between the computed and measured data.

Simulation of Land-Cover Change in Taipei Metropolitan Area under Climate Change Impact

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Kuo-Ching; Huang, Thomas C. C.

2014-02-01

Climate change causes environment change and shows up on land covers. Through observing the change of land use, researchers can find out the trend and potential mechanism of the land cover change. Effective adaptation policies can affect pattern of land cover change and may decrease the risks of climate change impacts. By simulating land use dynamics with scenario settings, this paper attempts to explore the relationship between climate change and land-cover change through efficient adaptation polices. It involves spatial statistical model in estimating possibility of land-cover change, cellular automata model in modeling land-cover dynamics, and scenario analysis in response to adaptation polices. The results show that, without any control, the critical eco-areas, such as estuarine areas, will be destroyed and people may move to the vulnerable and important economic development areas. In the other hand, under the limited development condition for adaptation, people migration to peri-urban and critical eco-areas may be deterred.

Application of Novel Lateral Tire Force Sensors to Vehicle Parameter Estimation of Electric Vehicles.

PubMed

Nam, Kanghyun

2015-11-11

This article presents methods for estimating lateral vehicle velocity and tire cornering stiffness, which are key parameters in vehicle dynamics control, using lateral tire force measurements. Lateral tire forces acting on each tire are directly measured by load-sensing hub bearings that were invented and further developed by NSK Ltd. For estimating the lateral vehicle velocity, tire force models considering lateral load transfer effects are used, and a recursive least square algorithm is adapted to identify the lateral vehicle velocity as an unknown parameter. Using the estimated lateral vehicle velocity, tire cornering stiffness, which is an important tire parameter dominating the vehicle's cornering responses, is estimated. For the practical implementation, the cornering stiffness estimation algorithm based on a simple bicycle model is developed and discussed. Finally, proposed estimation algorithms were evaluated using experimental test data.

Mixed models for selection of Jatropha progenies with high adaptability and yield stability in Brazilian regions.

PubMed

Teodoro, P E; Bhering, L L; Costa, R D; Rocha, R B; Laviola, B G

2016-08-19

The aim of this study was to estimate genetic parameters via mixed models and simultaneously to select Jatropha progenies grown in three regions of Brazil that meet high adaptability and stability. From a previous phenotypic selection, three progeny tests were installed in 2008 in the municipalities of Planaltina-DF (Midwest), Nova Porteirinha-MG (Southeast), and Pelotas-RS (South). We evaluated 18 families of half-sib in a randomized block design with three replications. Genetic parameters were estimated using restricted maximum likelihood/best linear unbiased prediction. Selection was based on the harmonic mean of the relative performance of genetic values method in three strategies considering: 1) performance in each environment (with interaction effect); 2) performance in each environment (with interaction effect); and 3) simultaneous selection for grain yield, stability and adaptability. Accuracy obtained (91%) reveals excellent experimental quality and consequently safety and credibility in the selection of superior progenies for grain yield. The gain with the selection of the best five progenies was more than 20%, regardless of the selection strategy. Thus, based on the three selection strategies used in this study, the progenies 4, 11, and 3 (selected in all environments and the mean environment and by adaptability and phenotypic stability methods) are the most suitable for growing in the three regions evaluated.

Parallel three-dimensional magnetotelluric inversion using adaptive finite-element method. Part I: theory and synthetic study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grayver, Alexander V.

2015-07-01

This paper presents a distributed magnetotelluric inversion scheme based on adaptive finite-element method (FEM). The key novel aspect of the introduced algorithm is the use of automatic mesh refinement techniques for both forward and inverse modelling. These techniques alleviate tedious and subjective procedure of choosing a suitable model parametrization. To avoid overparametrization, meshes for forward and inverse problems were decoupled. For calculation of accurate electromagnetic (EM) responses, automatic mesh refinement algorithm based on a goal-oriented error estimator has been adopted. For further efficiency gain, EM fields for each frequency were calculated using independent meshes in order to account for substantially different spatial behaviour of the fields over a wide range of frequencies. An automatic approach for efficient initial mesh design in inverse problems based on linearized model resolution matrix was developed. To make this algorithm suitable for large-scale problems, it was proposed to use a low-rank approximation of the linearized model resolution matrix. In order to fill a gap between initial and true model complexities and resolve emerging 3-D structures better, an algorithm for adaptive inverse mesh refinement was derived. Within this algorithm, spatial variations of the imaged parameter are calculated and mesh is refined in the neighborhoods of points with the largest variations. A series of numerical tests were performed to demonstrate the utility of the presented algorithms. Adaptive mesh refinement based on the model resolution estimates provides an efficient tool to derive initial meshes which account for arbitrary survey layouts, data types, frequency content and measurement uncertainties. Furthermore, the algorithm is capable to deliver meshes suitable to resolve features on multiple scales while keeping number of unknowns low. However, such meshes exhibit dependency on an initial model guess. Additionally, it is demonstrated that the adaptive mesh refinement can be particularly efficient in resolving complex shapes. The implemented inversion scheme was able to resolve a hemisphere object with sufficient resolution starting from a coarse discretization and refining mesh adaptively in a fully automatic process. The code is able to harness the computational power of modern distributed platforms and is shown to work with models consisting of millions of degrees of freedom. Significant computational savings were achieved by using locally refined decoupled meshes.

Mean-field models for heterogeneous networks of two-dimensional integrate and fire neurons.

PubMed

Nicola, Wilten; Campbell, Sue Ann

2013-01-01

We analytically derive mean-field models for all-to-all coupled networks of heterogeneous, adapting, two-dimensional integrate and fire neurons. The class of models we consider includes the Izhikevich, adaptive exponential and quartic integrate and fire models. The heterogeneity in the parameters leads to different moment closure assumptions that can be made in the derivation of the mean-field model from the population density equation for the large network. Three different moment closure assumptions lead to three different mean-field systems. These systems can be used for distinct purposes such as bifurcation analysis of the large networks, prediction of steady state firing rate distributions, parameter estimation for actual neurons and faster exploration of the parameter space. We use the mean-field systems to analyze adaptation induced bursting under realistic sources of heterogeneity in multiple parameters. Our analysis demonstrates that the presence of heterogeneity causes the Hopf bifurcation associated with the emergence of bursting to change from sub-critical to super-critical. This is confirmed with numerical simulations of the full network for biologically reasonable parameter values. This change decreases the plausibility of adaptation being the cause of bursting in hippocampal area CA3, an area with a sizable population of heavily coupled, strongly adapting neurons.

Mean-field models for heterogeneous networks of two-dimensional integrate and fire neurons

PubMed Central

Nicola, Wilten; Campbell, Sue Ann

2013-01-01

We analytically derive mean-field models for all-to-all coupled networks of heterogeneous, adapting, two-dimensional integrate and fire neurons. The class of models we consider includes the Izhikevich, adaptive exponential and quartic integrate and fire models. The heterogeneity in the parameters leads to different moment closure assumptions that can be made in the derivation of the mean-field model from the population density equation for the large network. Three different moment closure assumptions lead to three different mean-field systems. These systems can be used for distinct purposes such as bifurcation analysis of the large networks, prediction of steady state firing rate distributions, parameter estimation for actual neurons and faster exploration of the parameter space. We use the mean-field systems to analyze adaptation induced bursting under realistic sources of heterogeneity in multiple parameters. Our analysis demonstrates that the presence of heterogeneity causes the Hopf bifurcation associated with the emergence of bursting to change from sub-critical to super-critical. This is confirmed with numerical simulations of the full network for biologically reasonable parameter values. This change decreases the plausibility of adaptation being the cause of bursting in hippocampal area CA3, an area with a sizable population of heavily coupled, strongly adapting neurons. PMID:24416013

Adaptive Anchoring Model: How Static and Dynamic Presentations of Time Series Influence Judgments and Predictions.

PubMed

Kusev, Petko; van Schaik, Paul; Tsaneva-Atanasova, Krasimira; Juliusson, Asgeir; Chater, Nick

2018-01-01

When attempting to predict future events, people commonly rely on historical data. One psychological characteristic of judgmental forecasting of time series, established by research, is that when people make forecasts from series, they tend to underestimate future values for upward trends and overestimate them for downward ones, so-called trend-damping (modeled by anchoring on, and insufficient adjustment from, the average of recent time series values). Events in a time series can be experienced sequentially (dynamic mode), or they can also be retrospectively viewed simultaneously (static mode), not experienced individually in real time. In one experiment, we studied the influence of presentation mode (dynamic and static) on two sorts of judgment: (a) predictions of the next event (forecast) and (b) estimation of the average value of all the events in the presented series (average estimation). Participants' responses in dynamic mode were anchored on more recent events than in static mode for all types of judgment but with different consequences; hence, dynamic presentation improved prediction accuracy, but not estimation. These results are not anticipated by existing theoretical accounts; we develop and present an agent-based model-the adaptive anchoring model (ADAM)-to account for the difference between processing sequences of dynamically and statically presented stimuli (visually presented data). ADAM captures how variation in presentation mode produces variation in responses (and the accuracy of these responses) in both forecasting and judgment tasks. ADAM's model predictions for the forecasting and judgment tasks fit better with the response data than a linear-regression time series model. Moreover, ADAM outperformed autoregressive-integrated-moving-average (ARIMA) and exponential-smoothing models, while neither of these models accounts for people's responses on the average estimation task. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Cognitive Science published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Cognitive Science Society.

Output Feedback Adaptive Control of Non-Minimum Phase Systems Using Optimal Control Modification

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nguyen, Nhan; Hashemi, Kelley E.; Yucelen, Tansel; Arabi, Ehsan

2018-01-01

This paper describes output feedback adaptive control approaches for non-minimum phase SISO systems with relative degree 1 and non-strictly positive real (SPR) MIMO systems with uniform relative degree 1 using the optimal control modification method. It is well-known that the standard model-reference adaptive control (MRAC) cannot be used to control non-SPR plants to track an ideal SPR reference model. Due to the ideal property of asymptotic tracking, MRAC attempts an unstable pole-zero cancellation which results in unbounded signals for non-minimum phase SISO systems. The optimal control modification can be used to prevent the unstable pole-zero cancellation which results in a stable adaptation of non-minimum phase SISO systems. However, the tracking performance using this approach could suffer if the unstable zero is located far away from the imaginary axis. The tracking performance can be recovered by using an observer-based output feedback adaptive control approach which uses a Luenberger observer design to estimate the state information of the plant. Instead of explicitly specifying an ideal SPR reference model, the reference model is established from the linear quadratic optimal control to account for the non-minimum phase behavior of the plant. With this non-minimum phase reference model, the observer-based output feedback adaptive control can maintain stability as well as tracking performance. However, in the presence of the mismatch between the SPR reference model and the non-minimum phase plant, the standard MRAC results in unbounded signals, whereas a stable adaptation can be achieved with the optimal control modification. An application of output feedback adaptive control for a flexible wing aircraft illustrates the approaches.

Practical Considerations about Expected A Posteriori Estimation in Adaptive Testing: Adaptive A Priori, Adaptive Correction for Bias, and Adaptive Integration Interval.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Raiche, Gilles; Blais, Jean-Guy

In a computerized adaptive test (CAT), it would be desirable to obtain an acceptable precision of the proficiency level estimate using an optimal number of items. Decreasing the number of items is accompanied, however, by a certain degree of bias when the true proficiency level differs significantly from the a priori estimate. G. Raiche (2000) has…

Adaptation of a Fast Optimal Interpolation Algorithm to the Mapping of Oceangraphic Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Menemenlis, Dimitris; Fieguth, Paul; Wunsch, Carl; Willsky, Alan

1997-01-01

A fast, recently developed, multiscale optimal interpolation algorithm has been adapted to the mapping of hydrographic and other oceanographic data. This algorithm produces solution and error estimates which are consistent with those obtained from exact least squares methods, but at a small fraction of the computational cost. Problems whose solution would be completely impractical using exact least squares, that is, problems with tens or hundreds of thousands of measurements and estimation grid points, can easily be solved on a small workstation using the multiscale algorithm. In contrast to methods previously proposed for solving large least squares problems, our approach provides estimation error statistics while permitting long-range correlations, using all measurements, and permitting arbitrary measurement locations. The multiscale algorithm itself, published elsewhere, is not the focus of this paper. However, the algorithm requires statistical models having a very particular multiscale structure; it is the development of a class of multiscale statistical models, appropriate for oceanographic mapping problems, with which we concern ourselves in this paper. The approach is illustrated by mapping temperature in the northeastern Pacific. The number of hydrographic stations is kept deliberately small to show that multiscale and exact least squares results are comparable. A portion of the data were not used in the analysis; these data serve to test the multiscale estimates. A major advantage of the present approach is the ability to repeat the estimation procedure a large number of times for sensitivity studies, parameter estimation, and model testing. We have made available by anonymous Ftp a set of MATLAB-callable routines which implement the multiscale algorithm and the statistical models developed in this paper.

Estimating suspended sediment load with multivariate adaptive regression spline, teaching-learning based optimization, and artificial bee colony models.

PubMed

Yilmaz, Banu; Aras, Egemen; Nacar, Sinan; Kankal, Murat

2018-05-23

The functional life of a dam is often determined by the rate of sediment delivery to its reservoir. Therefore, an accurate estimate of the sediment load in rivers with dams is essential for designing and predicting a dam's useful lifespan. The most credible method is direct measurements of sediment input, but this can be very costly and it cannot always be implemented at all gauging stations. In this study, we tested various regression models to estimate suspended sediment load (SSL) at two gauging stations on the Çoruh River in Turkey, including artificial bee colony (ABC), teaching-learning-based optimization algorithm (TLBO), and multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS). These models were also compared with one another and with classical regression analyses (CRA). Streamflow values and previously collected data of SSL were used as model inputs with predicted SSL data as output. Two different training and testing dataset configurations were used to reinforce the model accuracy. For the MARS method, the root mean square error value was found to range between 35% and 39% for the test two gauging stations, which was lower than errors for other models. Error values were even lower (7% to 15%) using another dataset. Our results indicate that simultaneous measurements of streamflow with SSL provide the most effective parameter for obtaining accurate predictive models and that MARS is the most accurate model for predicting SSL. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Adaptive model reduction for continuous systems via recursive rational interpolation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lilly, John H.

1994-01-01

A method for adaptive identification of reduced-order models for continuous stable SISO and MIMO plants is presented. The method recursively finds a model whose transfer function (matrix) matches that of the plant on a set of frequencies chosen by the designer. The algorithm utilizes the Moving Discrete Fourier Transform (MDFT) to continuously monitor the frequency-domain profile of the system input and output signals. The MDFT is an efficient method of monitoring discrete points in the frequency domain of an evolving function of time. The model parameters are estimated from MDFT data using standard recursive parameter estimation techniques. The algorithm has been shown in simulations to be quite robust to additive noise in the inputs and outputs. A significant advantage of the method is that it enables a type of on-line model validation. This is accomplished by simultaneously identifying a number of models and comparing each with the plant in the frequency domain. Simulations of the method applied to an 8th-order SISO plant and a 10-state 2-input 2-output plant are presented. An example of on-line model validation applied to the SISO plant is also presented.

Adapting to rates versus amounts of climate change: a case of adaptation to sea-level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shayegh, Soheil; Moreno-Cruz, Juan; Caldeira, Ken

2016-10-01

Adaptation is the process of adjusting to climate change in order to moderate harm or exploit beneficial opportunities associated with it. Most adaptation strategies are designed to adjust to a new climate state. However, despite our best efforts to curtail greenhouse gas emissions, climate is likely to continue changing far into the future. Here, we show how considering rates of change affects the projected optimal adaptation strategy. We ground our discussion with an example of optimal investment in the face of continued sea-level rise, presenting a quantitative model that illustrates the interplay among physical and economic factors governing coastal development decisions such as rate of sea-level rise, land slope, discount rate, and depreciation rate. This model shows that the determination of optimal investment strategies depends on taking into account future rates of sea-level rise, as well as social and political constraints. This general approach also applies to the development of improved strategies to adapt to ongoing trends in temperature, precipitation, and other climate variables. Adaptation to some amount of change instead of adaptation to ongoing rates of change may produce inaccurate estimates of damages to the social systems and their ability to respond to external pressures.

ARMA models for earthquake ground motions. Seismic safety margins research program

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chang, M. K.; Kwiatkowski, J. W.; Nau, R. F.

1981-02-01

Four major California earthquake records were analyzed by use of a class of discrete linear time-domain processes commonly referred to as ARMA (Autoregressive/Moving-Average) models. It was possible to analyze these different earthquakes, identify the order of the appropriate ARMA model(s), estimate parameters, and test the residuals generated by these models. It was also possible to show the connections, similarities, and differences between the traditional continuous models (with parameter estimates based on spectral analyses) and the discrete models with parameters estimated by various maximum-likelihood techniques applied to digitized acceleration data in the time domain. The methodology proposed is suitable for simulatingmore » earthquake ground motions in the time domain, and appears to be easily adapted to serve as inputs for nonlinear discrete time models of structural motions. 60 references, 19 figures, 9 tables.« less

A comparison of moment-based methods of estimation for the log Pearson type 3 distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koutrouvelis, I. A.; Canavos, G. C.

2000-06-01

The log Pearson type 3 distribution is a very important model in statistical hydrology, especially for modeling annual flood series. In this paper we compare the various methods based on moments for estimating quantiles of this distribution. Besides the methods of direct and mixed moments which were found most successful in previous studies and the well-known indirect method of moments, we develop generalized direct moments and generalized mixed moments methods and a new method of adaptive mixed moments. The last method chooses the orders of two moments for the original observations by utilizing information contained in the sample itself. The results of Monte Carlo experiments demonstrated the superiority of this method in estimating flood events of high return periods when a large sample is available and in estimating flood events of low return periods regardless of the sample size. In addition, a comparison of simulation and asymptotic results shows that the adaptive method may be used for the construction of meaningful confidence intervals for design events based on the asymptotic theory even with small samples. The simulation results also point to the specific members of the class of generalized moments estimates which maintain small values for bias and/or mean square error.

The Impacts and Economic Costs of Climate Change in Agriculture and the Costs and Benefits of Adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iglesias, A.; Quiroga, S.; Garrote, L.; Cunningham, R.

2012-04-01

This paper provides monetary estimates of the effects of agricultural adaptation to climate change in Europe. The model computes spatial crop productivity changes as a response to climate change linking biophysical and socioeconomic components. It combines available data sets of crop productivity changes under climate change (Iglesias et al 2011, Ciscar et al 2011), statistical functions of productivity response to water and nitrogen inputs, catchment level water availability, and environmental policy scenarios. Future global change scenarios are derived from several socio-economic futures of representative concentration pathways and regional climate models. The economic valuation is conducted by using GTAP general equilibrium model. The marginal productivity changes has been used as an input for the economic general equilibrium model in order to analyse the economic impact of the agricultural changes induced by climate change in the world. The study also includes the analysis of an adaptive capacity index computed by using the socio-economic results of GTAP. The results are combined to prioritize agricultural adaptation policy needs in Europe.

Wind adaptive modeling of transmission lines using minimum description length

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaw, Yoonseok; Sohn, Gunho

2017-03-01

The transmission lines are moving objects, which positions are dynamically affected by wind-induced conductor motion while they are acquired by airborne laser scanners. This wind effect results in a noisy distribution of laser points, which often hinders accurate representation of transmission lines and thus, leads to various types of modeling errors. This paper presents a new method for complete 3D transmission line model reconstruction in the framework of inner and across span analysis. The highlighted fact is that the proposed method is capable of indirectly estimating noise scales, which corrupts the quality of laser observations affected by different wind speeds through a linear regression analysis. In the inner span analysis, individual transmission line models of each span are evaluated based on the Minimum Description Length theory and erroneous transmission line segments are subsequently replaced by precise transmission line models with wind-adaptive noise scale estimated. In the subsequent step of across span analysis, detecting the precise start and end positions of the transmission line models, known as the Point of Attachment, is the key issue for correcting partial modeling errors, as well as refining transmission line models. Finally, the geometric and topological completion of transmission line models are achieved over the entire network. A performance evaluation was conducted over 138.5 km long corridor data. In a modest wind condition, the results demonstrates that the proposed method can improve the accuracy of non-wind-adaptive initial models on an average of 48% success rate to produce complete transmission line models in the range between 85% and 99.5% with the positional accuracy of 9.55 cm transmission line models and 28 cm Point of Attachment in the root-mean-square error.

J-Adaptive estimation with estimated noise statistics. [for orbit determination

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jazwinski, A. H.; Hipkins, C.

1975-01-01

The J-Adaptive estimator described by Jazwinski and Hipkins (1972) is extended to include the simultaneous estimation of the statistics of the unmodeled system accelerations. With the aid of simulations it is demonstrated that the J-Adaptive estimator with estimated noise statistics can automatically estimate satellite orbits to an accuracy comparable with the data noise levels, when excellent, continuous tracking coverage is available. Such tracking coverage will be available from satellite-to-satellite tracking.

Adaptive Window Zero-Crossing-Based Instantaneous Frequency Estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sekhar, S. Chandra; Sreenivas, TV

2004-12-01

We address the problem of estimating instantaneous frequency (IF) of a real-valued constant amplitude time-varying sinusoid. Estimation of polynomial IF is formulated using the zero-crossings of the signal. We propose an algorithm to estimate nonpolynomial IF by local approximation using a low-order polynomial, over a short segment of the signal. This involves the choice of window length to minimize the mean square error (MSE). The optimal window length found by directly minimizing the MSE is a function of the higher-order derivatives of the IF which are not available a priori. However, an optimum solution is formulated using an adaptive window technique based on the concept of intersection of confidence intervals. The adaptive algorithm enables minimum MSE-IF (MMSE-IF) estimation without requiring a priori information about the IF. Simulation results show that the adaptive window zero-crossing-based IF estimation method is superior to fixed window methods and is also better than adaptive spectrogram and adaptive Wigner-Ville distribution (WVD)-based IF estimators for different signal-to-noise ratio (SNR).

Estimation of the optimal number of radiotherapy fractions for breast cancer: A review of the evidence.

PubMed

Wong, Karen; Delaney, Geoff P; Barton, Michael B

2015-08-01

There is variation in radiotherapy fractionation practice, however, there is no evidence-based benchmark for appropriate activity. An evidence-based model was constructed to estimate the optimal number of fractions for the first course of radiotherapy for breast cancer to aid in services planning and performance benchmarking. The published breast cancer radiotherapy utilisation model was adapted. Evidence-based number of fractions was added to each radiotherapy indication. The overall optimal number of fractions was calculated based on the frequency of specific clinical conditions where radiotherapy is indicated and the recommended number of fractions for each condition. Sensitivity analysis was performed to assess the impact of uncertainties on the model. For the entire Australian breast cancer patient population, the estimated optimal number of fractions per patient was 16.8, 14.6, 13.7 and 0.8 for ductal carcinoma in situ, early, advanced and metastatic breast cancer respectively. Overall, the optimal number of fractions per patient was 14.4 (range 14.4-18.7). These results allow comparison with actual practices, and workload prediction to aid in services planning. The model can be easily adapted to other countries by inserting population-specific epidemiological data, and to future changes in cancer incidence, stage distribution and fractionation recommendations. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Accounting for pH heterogeneity and variability in modelling human health risks from cadmium in contaminated land.

PubMed

Gay, J Rebecca; Korre, Anna

2009-07-01

The authors have previously published a methodology which combines quantitative probabilistic human health risk assessment and spatial statistical methods (geostatistics) to produce an assessment, incorporating uncertainty, of risks to human health from exposure to contaminated land. The model assumes a constant soil to plant concentration factor (CF(veg)) when calculating intake of contaminants. This model is modified here to enhance its use in a situation where CF(veg) varies according to soil pH, as is the case for cadmium. The original methodology uses sequential indicator simulation (SIS) to map soil concentration estimates for one contaminant across a site. A real, age-stratified population is mapped across the contaminated area, and intake of soil contaminants by individuals is calculated probabilistically using an adaptation of the Contaminated Land Exposure Assessment (CLEA) model. The proposed improvement involves not only the geostatistical estimation of the contaminant concentration, but also that of soil pH, which in turn leads to a variable CF(veg) estimate which influences the human intake results. The results presented demonstrate that taking pH into account can influence the outcome of the risk assessment greatly. It is proposed that a similar adaptation could be used for other combinations of soil variables which influence CF(veg).

Corruption of accuracy and efficiency of Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation by inaccurate numerical implementation of conceptual hydrologic models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schoups, G.; Vrugt, J. A.; Fenicia, F.; van de Giesen, N. C.

2010-10-01

Conceptual rainfall-runoff models have traditionally been applied without paying much attention to numerical errors induced by temporal integration of water balance dynamics. Reliance on first-order, explicit, fixed-step integration methods leads to computationally cheap simulation models that are easy to implement. Computational speed is especially desirable for estimating parameter and predictive uncertainty using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. Confirming earlier work of Kavetski et al. (2003), we show here that the computational speed of first-order, explicit, fixed-step integration methods comes at a cost: for a case study with a spatially lumped conceptual rainfall-runoff model, it introduces artificial bimodality in the marginal posterior parameter distributions, which is not present in numerically accurate implementations of the same model. The resulting effects on MCMC simulation include (1) inconsistent estimates of posterior parameter and predictive distributions, (2) poor performance and slow convergence of the MCMC algorithm, and (3) unreliable convergence diagnosis using the Gelman-Rubin statistic. We studied several alternative numerical implementations to remedy these problems, including various adaptive-step finite difference schemes and an operator splitting method. Our results show that adaptive-step, second-order methods, based on either explicit finite differencing or operator splitting with analytical integration, provide the best alternative for accurate and efficient MCMC simulation. Fixed-step or adaptive-step implicit methods may also be used for increased accuracy, but they cannot match the efficiency of adaptive-step explicit finite differencing or operator splitting. Of the latter two, explicit finite differencing is more generally applicable and is preferred if the individual hydrologic flux laws cannot be integrated analytically, as the splitting method then loses its advantage.

Test Design Optimization in CAT Early Stage with the Nominal Response Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Passos, Valeria Lima; Berger, Martijn P. F.; Tan, Frans E.

2007-01-01

The early stage of computerized adaptive testing (CAT) refers to the phase of the trait estimation during the administration of only a few items. This phase can be characterized by bias and instability of estimation. In this study, an item selection criterion is introduced in an attempt to lessen this instability: the D-optimality criterion. A…

Oracle estimation of parametric models under boundary constraints.

PubMed

Wong, Kin Yau; Goldberg, Yair; Fine, Jason P

2016-12-01

In many classical estimation problems, the parameter space has a boundary. In most cases, the standard asymptotic properties of the estimator do not hold when some of the underlying true parameters lie on the boundary. However, without knowledge of the true parameter values, confidence intervals constructed assuming that the parameters lie in the interior are generally over-conservative. A penalized estimation method is proposed in this article to address this issue. An adaptive lasso procedure is employed to shrink the parameters to the boundary, yielding oracle inference which adapt to whether or not the true parameters are on the boundary. When the true parameters are on the boundary, the inference is equivalent to that which would be achieved with a priori knowledge of the boundary, while if the converse is true, the inference is equivalent to that which is obtained in the interior of the parameter space. The method is demonstrated under two practical scenarios, namely the frailty survival model and linear regression with order-restricted parameters. Simulation studies and real data analyses show that the method performs well with realistic sample sizes and exhibits certain advantages over standard methods. © 2016, The International Biometric Society.

On the selection of ordinary differential equation models with application to predator-prey dynamical models.

PubMed

Zhang, Xinyu; Cao, Jiguo; Carroll, Raymond J

2015-03-01

We consider model selection and estimation in a context where there are competing ordinary differential equation (ODE) models, and all the models are special cases of a "full" model. We propose a computationally inexpensive approach that employs statistical estimation of the full model, followed by a combination of a least squares approximation (LSA) and the adaptive Lasso. We show the resulting method, here called the LSA method, to be an (asymptotically) oracle model selection method. The finite sample performance of the proposed LSA method is investigated with Monte Carlo simulations, in which we examine the percentage of selecting true ODE models, the efficiency of the parameter estimation compared to simply using the full and true models, and coverage probabilities of the estimated confidence intervals for ODE parameters, all of which have satisfactory performances. Our method is also demonstrated by selecting the best predator-prey ODE to model a lynx and hare population dynamical system among some well-known and biologically interpretable ODE models. © 2014, The International Biometric Society.

Parameter Estimation for a Hybrid Adaptive Flight Controller

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Campbell, Stefan F.; Nguyen, Nhan T.; Kaneshige, John; Krishnakumar, Kalmanje

2009-01-01

This paper expands on the hybrid control architecture developed at the NASA Ames Research Center by addressing issues related to indirect adaptation using the recursive least squares (RLS) algorithm. Specifically, the hybrid control architecture is an adaptive flight controller that features both direct and indirect adaptation techniques. This paper will focus almost exclusively on the modifications necessary to achieve quality indirect adaptive control. Additionally this paper will present results that, using a full non -linear aircraft model, demonstrate the effectiveness of the hybrid control architecture given drastic changes in an aircraft s dynamics. Throughout the development of this topic, a thorough discussion of the RLS algorithm as a system identification technique will be provided along with results from seven well-known modifications to the popular RLS algorithm.

Snowpack Estimates Improve Water Resources Climate-Change Adaptation Strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lestak, L.; Molotch, N. P.; Guan, B.; Granger, S. L.; Nemeth, S.; Rizzardo, D.; Gehrke, F.; Franz, K. J.; Karsten, L. R.; Margulis, S. A.; Case, K.; Anderson, M.; Painter, T. H.; Dozier, J.

2010-12-01

Observed climate trends over the past 50 years indicate a reduction in snowpack water storage across the Western U.S. As the primary water source for the region, the loss in snowpack water storage presents significant challenges for managing water deliveries to meet agricultural, municipal, and hydropower demands. Improved snowpack information via remote sensing shows promise for improving seasonal water supply forecasts and for informing decadal scale infrastructure planning. An ongoing project in the California Sierra Nevada and examples from the Rocky Mountains indicate the tractability of estimating snowpack water storage on daily time steps using a distributed snowpack reconstruction model. Fractional snow covered area (FSCA) derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite data were used with modeled snowmelt from the snowpack model to estimate snow water equivalent (SWE) in the Sierra Nevada (64,515 km2). Spatially distributed daily SWE estimates were calculated for 10 years, 2000-2009, with detailed analysis for two anamolous years, 2006, a wet year and 2009, an over-forecasted year. Sierra-wide mean SWE was 0.8 cm for 01 April 2006 versus 0.4 cm for 01 April 2009, comparing favorably with known outflow. Modeled SWE was compared to in-situ (observed) SWE for 01 April 2006 for the Feather (northern Sierra, lower-elevation) and Merced (central Sierra, higher-elevation) basins, with mean modeled SWE 80% of observed SWE. Integration of spatial SWE estimates into forecasting operations will allow for better visualization and analysis of high-altitude late-season snow missed by in-situ snow sensors and inter-annual anomalies associated with extreme precipitation events/atmospheric rivers. Collaborations with state and local entities establish protocols on how to meet current and future information needs and improve climate-change adaptation strategies.

Adaptive data-driven models for estimating carbon fluxes in the Northern Great Plains

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wylie, B.K.; Fosnight, E.A.; Gilmanov, T.G.; Frank, A.B.; Morgan, J.A.; Haferkamp, Marshall R.; Meyers, T.P.

2007-01-01

Rangeland carbon fluxes are highly variable in both space and time. Given the expansive areas of rangelands, how rangelands respond to climatic variation, management, and soil potential is important to understanding carbon dynamics. Rangeland carbon fluxes associated with Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE) were measured from multiple year data sets at five flux tower locations in the Northern Great Plains. These flux tower measurements were combined with 1-km2 spatial data sets of Photosynthetically Active Radiation (PAR), Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), temperature, precipitation, seasonal NDVI metrics, and soil characteristics. Flux tower measurements were used to train and select variables for a rule-based piece-wise regression model. The accuracy and stability of the model were assessed through random cross-validation and cross-validation by site and year. Estimates of NEE were produced for each 10-day period during each growing season from 1998 to 2001. Growing season carbon flux estimates were combined with winter flux estimates to derive and map annual estimates of NEE. The rule-based piece-wise regression model is a dynamic, adaptive model that captures the relationships of the spatial data to NEE as conditions evolve throughout the growing season. The carbon dynamics in the Northern Great Plains proved to be in near equilibrium, serving as a small carbon sink in 1999 and as a small carbon source in 1998, 2000, and 2001. Patterns of carbon sinks and sources are very complex, with the carbon dynamics tilting toward sources in the drier west and toward sinks in the east and near the mountains in the extreme west. Significant local variability exists, which initial investigations suggest are likely related to local climate variability, soil properties, and management.

A recursive Bayesian updating model of haptic stiffness perception.

PubMed

Wu, Bing; Klatzky, Roberta L

2018-06-01

Stiffness of many materials follows Hooke's Law, but the mechanism underlying the haptic perception of stiffness is not as simple as it seems in the physical definition. The present experiments support a model by which stiffness perception is adaptively updated during dynamic interaction. Participants actively explored virtual springs and estimated their stiffness relative to a reference. The stimuli were simulations of linear springs or nonlinear springs created by modulating a linear counterpart with low-amplitude, half-cycle (Experiment 1) or full-cycle (Experiment 2) sinusoidal force. Experiment 1 showed that subjective stiffness increased (decreased) as a linear spring was positively (negatively) modulated by a half-sinewave force. In Experiment 2, an opposite pattern was observed for full-sinewave modulations. Modeling showed that the results were best described by an adaptive process that sequentially and recursively updated an estimate of stiffness using the force and displacement information sampled over trajectory and time. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

A Large-Scale Multi-Hop Localization Algorithm Based on Regularized Extreme Learning for Wireless Networks.

PubMed

Zheng, Wei; Yan, Xiaoyong; Zhao, Wei; Qian, Chengshan

2017-12-20

A novel large-scale multi-hop localization algorithm based on regularized extreme learning is proposed in this paper. The large-scale multi-hop localization problem is formulated as a learning problem. Unlike other similar localization algorithms, the proposed algorithm overcomes the shortcoming of the traditional algorithms which are only applicable to an isotropic network, therefore has a strong adaptability to the complex deployment environment. The proposed algorithm is composed of three stages: data acquisition, modeling and location estimation. In data acquisition stage, the training information between nodes of the given network is collected. In modeling stage, the model among the hop-counts and the physical distances between nodes is constructed using regularized extreme learning. In location estimation stage, each node finds its specific location in a distributed manner. Theoretical analysis and several experiments show that the proposed algorithm can adapt to the different topological environments with low computational cost. Furthermore, high accuracy can be achieved by this method without setting complex parameters.

Practical Implementation of Multiple Model Adaptive Estimation Using Neyman-Pearson Based Hypothesis Testing and Spectral Estimation Tools

DTIC Science & Technology

1996-09-01

Generalized Likelihood Ratio (GLR) and voting techniques. The third class consisted of multiple hypothesis filter detectors, specifically the MMAE. The...vector version, versus a tensor if we use the matrix version of the power spectral density estimate. Using this notation, we will derive an...as MATLAB , have an intrinsic sample covariance computation available, which makes this method quite easy to implement. In practice, the mean for the

Analysis of Terrestrial Conditions and Dynamics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goward, S. N.

1985-01-01

An ecological model is developed to estimate annual net primary productivity of vegetation in twelve major North American biomes. Three models are adapted and combined, each addressing a different factor known to govern primary productivity, i.e., photosynthesis, respiration, and moisture availability. Measures of intercepted photosynthetically active radiation (1PAR) for input to the photosynthesis model are derived from spectral vegetation index data. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data are produced from NOAA-7 Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) observations for April 1982 through March 1983. NDVI values are sampled from within the biomes at locations for which climatological data are available. Monthly estimates of Net Primary Productivity (NPP) for each sample location are generated and summed over the twelve month period. These monthly estimates are averaged to produce a single annual estimated NPP value for each biomes. Comparison of estimated NPP values with figures reported in the literature produces a correlation coefficient of 85.

The Agriculture Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosenzweig, C.

2010-12-01

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) is a distributed climate-scenario simulation exercise for historical model intercomparison and future climate change conditions with participation of multiple crop and world agricultural trade modeling groups around the world. The goals of AgMIP are to improve substantially the characterization of risk of hunger and world food security due to climate change and to enhance adaptation capacity in both developing and developed countries. Historical period results will spur model improvement and interaction among major modeling groups, while future period results will lead directly to tests of adaptation and mitigation strategies across a range of scales. AgMIP will consist of a multi-scale impact assessment utilizing the latest methods for climate and agricultural scenario generation. Scenarios and modeling protocols will be distributed on the web, and multi-model results will be collated and analyzed to ensure the widest possible coverage of agricultural crops and regions. AgMIP will place regional changes in agricultural production in a global context that reflects new trading opportunities, imbalances, and shortages in world markets resulting from climate change and other driving forces for food supply. Such projections are essential inputs from the Vulnerability, Impacts, and Adaptation (VIA) research community to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment (AR5), now underway, and the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. They will set the context for local-scale vulnerability and adaptation studies, supply test scenarios for national-scale development of trade policy instruments, provide critical information on changing supply and demand for water resources, and elucidate interactive effects of climate change and land use change. AgMIP will not only provide crucially-needed new global estimates of how climate change will affect food supply and hunger in the agricultural regions of the world, but it will also build the capabilities of developing countries to estimate how climate change will affect their supply and demand for food.

Data Assimilation Methods on a Non-conservative Adaptive Mesh

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guider, Colin Thomas; Rabatel, Matthias; Carrassi, Alberto; Jones, Christopher K. R. T.

2017-04-01

Adaptive mesh methods are used to model a wide variety of physical phenomena. Some of these models, in particular those of sea ice movement, are particularly interesting in that they use a remeshing process to remove and insert mesh points at various points in their evolution. This presents a challenge in developing compatible data assimilation schemes, as the dimension of the state space we wish to estimate can change over time when these remeshings occur. In this work, we first describe a remeshing scheme for an adaptive mesh in one dimension. We then develop advanced data assimilation methods that are appropriate for such a moving and remeshed grid. We hope to extend these techniques to two-dimensional models, like the Lagrangian sea ice model neXtSIM te{ns}. \\bibitem{ns} P. Rampal, S. Bouillon, E. Ólason, and M. Morlighem. ne{X}t{SIM}: a new {L}agrangian sea ice model. {The Cryosphere}, 10 (3): 1055-1073, 2016.

Adaptive optimal input design and parametric estimation of nonlinear dynamical systems: application to neuronal modeling.

PubMed

Madi, Mahmoud K; Karameh, Fadi N

2018-05-11

Many physical models of biological processes including neural systems are characterized by parametric nonlinear dynamical relations between driving inputs, internal states, and measured outputs of the process. Fitting such models using experimental data (data assimilation) is a challenging task since the physical process often operates in a noisy, possibly non-stationary environment; moreover, conducting multiple experiments under controlled and repeatable conditions can be impractical, time consuming or costly. The accuracy of model identification, therefore, is dictated principally by the quality and dynamic richness of collected data over single or few experimental sessions. Accordingly, it is highly desirable to design efficient experiments that, by exciting the physical process with smart inputs, yields fast convergence and increased accuracy of the model. We herein introduce an adaptive framework in which optimal input design is integrated with Square root Cubature Kalman Filters (OID-SCKF) to develop an online estimation procedure that first, converges significantly quicker, thereby permitting model fitting over shorter time windows, and second, enhances model accuracy when only few process outputs are accessible. The methodology is demonstrated on common nonlinear models and on a four-area neural mass model with noisy and limited measurements. Estimation quality (speed and accuracy) is benchmarked against high-performance SCKF-based methods that commonly employ dynamically rich informed inputs for accurate model identification. For all the tested models, simulated single-trial and ensemble averages showed that OID-SCKF exhibited (i) faster convergence of parameter estimates and (ii) lower dependence on inter-trial noise variability with gains up to around 1000 msec in speed and 81% increase in variability for the neural mass models. In terms of accuracy, OID-SCKF estimation was superior, and exhibited considerably less variability across experiments, in identifying model parameters of (a) systems with challenging model inversion dynamics and (b) systems with fewer measurable outputs that directly relate to the underlying processes. Fast and accurate identification therefore carries particular promise for modeling of transient (short-lived) neuronal network dynamics using a spatially under-sampled set of noisy measurements, as is commonly encountered in neural engineering applications. © 2018 IOP Publishing Ltd.

Lyapunov function-based control laws for revolute robot arms - Tracking control, robustness, and adaptive control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wen, John T.; Kreutz-Delgado, Kenneth; Bayard, David S.

1992-01-01

A new class of joint level control laws for all-revolute robot arms is introduced. The analysis is similar to a recently proposed energy-like Liapunov function approach, except that the closed-loop potential function is shaped in accordance with the underlying joint space topology. This approach gives way to a much simpler analysis and leads to a new class of control designs which guarantee both global asymptotic stability and local exponential stability. When Coulomb and viscous friction and parameter uncertainty are present as model perturbations, a sliding mode-like modification of the control law results in a robustness-enhancing outer loop. Adaptive control is formulated within the same framework. A linear-in-the-parameters formulation is adopted and globally asymptotically stable adaptive control laws are derived by simply replacing unknown model parameters by their estimates (i.e., certainty equivalence adaptation).

Towards More Comprehensive Projections of Urban Heat-Related Mortality: Estimates for New York City under Multiple Population, Adaptation, and Climate Scenarios

PubMed Central

Petkova, Elisaveta P.; Vink, Jan K.; Horton, Radley M.; Gasparrini, Antonio; Bader, Daniel A.; Francis, Joe D.; Kinney, Patrick L.

2016-01-01

Background: High temperatures have substantial impacts on mortality and, with growing concerns about climate change, numerous studies have developed projections of future heat-related deaths around the world. Projections of temperature-related mortality are often limited by insufficient information to formulate hypotheses about population sensitivity to high temperatures and future demographics. Objectives: The present study derived projections of temperature-related mortality in New York City by taking into account future patterns of adaptation or demographic change, both of which can have profound influences on future health burdens. Methods: We adopted a novel approach to modeling heat adaptation by incorporating an analysis of the observed population response to heat in New York City over the course of eight decades. This approach projected heat-related mortality until the end of the 21st century based on observed trends in adaptation over a substantial portion of the 20th century. In addition, we incorporated a range of new scenarios for population change until the end of the 21st century. We then estimated future heat-related deaths in New York City by combining the changing temperature–mortality relationship and population scenarios with downscaled temperature projections from the 33 global climate models (GCMs) and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Results: The median number of projected annual heat-related deaths across the 33 GCMs varied greatly by RCP and adaptation and population change scenario, ranging from 167 to 3,331 in the 2080s compared with 638 heat-related deaths annually between 2000 and 2006. Conclusions: These findings provide a more complete picture of the range of potential future heat-related mortality risks across the 21st century in New York City, and they highlight the importance of both demographic change and adaptation responses in modifying future risks. Citation: Petkova EP, Vink JK, Horton RM, Gasparrini A, Bader DA, Francis JD, Kinney PL. 2017. Towards more comprehensive projections of urban heat-related mortality: estimates for New York City under multiple population, adaptation, and climate scenarios. Environ Health Perspect 125:47–55; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP166 PMID:27337737

Towards More Comprehensive Projections of Urban Heat-Related Mortality: Estimates for New York City under Multiple Population, Adaptation, and Climate Scenarios.

PubMed

Petkova, Elisaveta P; Vink, Jan K; Horton, Radley M; Gasparrini, Antonio; Bader, Daniel A; Francis, Joe D; Kinney, Patrick L

2017-01-01

High temperatures have substantial impacts on mortality and, with growing concerns about climate change, numerous studies have developed projections of future heat-related deaths around the world. Projections of temperature-related mortality are often limited by insufficient information to formulate hypotheses about population sensitivity to high temperatures and future demographics. The present study derived projections of temperature-related mortality in New York City by taking into account future patterns of adaptation or demographic change, both of which can have profound influences on future health burdens. We adopted a novel approach to modeling heat adaptation by incorporating an analysis of the observed population response to heat in New York City over the course of eight decades. This approach projected heat-related mortality until the end of the 21st century based on observed trends in adaptation over a substantial portion of the 20th century. In addition, we incorporated a range of new scenarios for population change until the end of the 21st century. We then estimated future heat-related deaths in New York City by combining the changing temperature-mortality relationship and population scenarios with downscaled temperature projections from the 33 global climate models (GCMs) and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The median number of projected annual heat-related deaths across the 33 GCMs varied greatly by RCP and adaptation and population change scenario, ranging from 167 to 3,331 in the 2080s compared with 638 heat-related deaths annually between 2000 and 2006. These findings provide a more complete picture of the range of potential future heat-related mortality risks across the 21st century in New York City, and they highlight the importance of both demographic change and adaptation responses in modifying future risks. Citation: Petkova EP, Vink JK, Horton RM, Gasparrini A, Bader DA, Francis JD, Kinney PL. 2017. Towards more comprehensive projections of urban heat-related mortality: estimates for New York City under multiple population, adaptation, and climate scenarios. Environ Health Perspect 125:47-55; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP166.

ARMAX-Based Transfer Function Model Identification Using Wide-Area Measurement for Adaptive and Coordinated Damping Control

DOE PAGES

Liu, Hesen; Zhu, Lin; Pan, Zhuohong; ...

2015-09-14

One of the main drawbacks of the existing oscillation damping controllers that are designed based on offline dynamic models is adaptivity to the power system operating condition. With the increasing availability of wide-area measurements and the rapid development of system identification techniques, it is possible to identify a measurement-based transfer function model online that can be used to tune the oscillation damping controller. Such a model could capture all dominant oscillation modes for adaptive and coordinated oscillation damping control. our paper describes a comprehensive approach to identify a low-order transfer function model of a power system using a multi-input multi-outputmore » (MIMO) autoregressive moving average exogenous (ARMAX) model. This methodology consists of five steps: 1) input selection; 2) output selection; 3) identification trigger; 4) model estimation; and 5) model validation. The proposed method is validated by using ambient data and ring-down data in the 16-machine 68-bus Northeast Power Coordinating Council system. Our results demonstrate that the measurement-based model using MIMO ARMAX can capture all the dominant oscillation modes. Compared with the MIMO subspace state space model, the MIMO ARMAX model has equivalent accuracy but lower order and improved computational efficiency. The proposed model can be applied for adaptive and coordinated oscillation damping control.« less

Thickness distribution of a cooling pyroclastic flow deposit on Augustine Volcano, Alaska: Optimization using InSAR, FEMs, and an adaptive mesh algorithm

USGS Publications Warehouse

Masterlark, Timothy; Lu, Zhong; Rykhus, Russell P.

2006-01-01

Interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) imagery documents the consistent subsidence, during the interval 1992–1999, of a pyroclastic flow deposit (PFD) emplaced during the 1986 eruption of Augustine Volcano, Alaska. We construct finite element models (FEMs) that simulate thermoelastic contraction of the PFD to account for the observed subsidence. Three-dimensional problem domains of the FEMs include a thermoelastic PFD embedded in an elastic substrate. The thickness of the PFD is initially determined from the difference between post- and pre-eruption digital elevation models (DEMs). The initial excess temperature of the PFD at the time of deposition, 640 °C, is estimated from FEM predictions and an InSAR image via standard least-squares inverse methods. Although the FEM predicts the major features of the observed transient deformation, systematic prediction errors (RMSE = 2.2 cm) are most likely associated with errors in the a priori PFD thickness distribution estimated from the DEM differences. We combine an InSAR image, FEMs, and an adaptive mesh algorithm to iteratively optimize the geometry of the PFD with respect to a minimized misfit between the predicted thermoelastic deformation and observed deformation. Prediction errors from an FEM, which includes an optimized PFD geometry and the initial excess PFD temperature estimated from the least-squares analysis, are sub-millimeter (RMSE = 0.3 mm). The average thickness (9.3 m), maximum thickness (126 m), and volume (2.1 × 107m3) of the PFD, estimated using the adaptive mesh algorithm, are about twice as large as the respective estimations for the a priori PFD geometry. Sensitivity analyses suggest unrealistic PFD thickness distributions are required for initial excess PFD temperatures outside of the range 500–800 °C.

Efficient estimation of abundance for patchily distributed populations via two-phase, adaptive sampling.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Conroy, M.J.; Runge, J.P.; Barker, R.J.; Schofield, M.R.; Fonnesbeck, C.J.

2008-01-01

Many organisms are patchily distributed, with some patches occupied at high density, others at lower densities, and others not occupied. Estimation of overall abundance can be difficult and is inefficient via intensive approaches such as capture-mark-recapture (CMR) or distance sampling. We propose a two-phase sampling scheme and model in a Bayesian framework to estimate abundance for patchily distributed populations. In the first phase, occupancy is estimated by binomial detection samples taken on all selected sites, where selection may be of all sites available, or a random sample of sites. Detection can be by visual surveys, detection of sign, physical captures, or other approach. At the second phase, if a detection threshold is achieved, CMR or other intensive sampling is conducted via standard procedures (grids or webs) to estimate abundance. Detection and CMR data are then used in a joint likelihood to model probability of detection in the occupancy sample via an abundance-detection model. CMR modeling is used to estimate abundance for the abundance-detection relationship, which in turn is used to predict abundance at the remaining sites, where only detection data are collected. We present a full Bayesian modeling treatment of this problem, in which posterior inference on abundance and other parameters (detection, capture probability) is obtained under a variety of assumptions about spatial and individual sources of heterogeneity. We apply the approach to abundance estimation for two species of voles (Microtus spp.) in Montana, USA. We also use a simulation study to evaluate the frequentist properties of our procedure given known patterns in abundance and detection among sites as well as design criteria. For most population characteristics and designs considered, bias and mean-square error (MSE) were low, and coverage of true parameter values by Bayesian credibility intervals was near nominal. Our two-phase, adaptive approach allows efficient estimation of abundance of rare and patchily distributed species and is particularly appropriate when sampling in all patches is impossible, but a global estimate of abundance is required.

Reduction of uncertainty for estimating runoff with the NRCS CN model by the adaptation to local climatic conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Durán-Barroso, Pablo; González, Javier; Valdés, Juan B.

2016-04-01

Rainfall-runoff quantification is one of the most important tasks in both engineering and watershed management as it allows to identify, forecast and explain watershed response. For that purpose, the Natural Resources Conservation Service Curve Number method (NRCS CN) is the conceptual lumped model more recognized in the field of rainfall-runoff estimation. Furthermore, there is still an ongoing discussion about the procedure to determine the portion of rainfall retained in the watershed before runoff is generated, called as initial abstractions. This concept is computed as a ratio (λ) of the soil potential maximum retention S of the watershed. Initially, this ratio was assumed to be 0.2, but later it has been proposed to be modified to 0.05. However, the actual procedures to convert NRCS CN model parameters obtained under a different hypothesis about λ do not incorporate any adaptation of climatic conditions of each watershed. By this reason, we propose a new simple method for computing model parameters which is adapted to local conditions taking into account regional patterns of climate conditions. After checking the goodness of this procedure against the actual ones in 34 different watersheds located in Ohio and Texas (United States), we concluded that this novel methodology represents the most accurate and efficient alternative to refit the initial abstraction ratio.

Genome-Wide Association Analysis of Adaptation Using Environmentally Predicted Traits

PubMed Central

van Zanten, Martijn

2015-01-01

Current methods for studying the genetic basis of adaptation evaluate genetic associations with ecologically relevant traits or single environmental variables, under the implicit assumption that natural selection imposes correlations between phenotypes, environments and genotypes. In practice, observed trait and environmental data are manifestations of unknown selective forces and are only indirectly associated with adaptive genetic variation. In theory, improved estimation of these forces could enable more powerful detection of loci under selection. Here we present an approach in which we approximate adaptive variation by modeling phenotypes as a function of the environment and using the predicted trait in multivariate and univariate genome-wide association analysis (GWAS). Based on computer simulations and published flowering time data from the model plant Arabidopsis thaliana, we find that environmentally predicted traits lead to higher recovery of functional loci in multivariate GWAS and are more strongly correlated to allele frequencies at adaptive loci than individual environmental variables. Our results provide an example of the use of environmental data to obtain independent and meaningful information on adaptive genetic variation. PMID:26496492

Estimating population ecology models for the WWW market: evidence of competitive oligopolies.

PubMed

de Cabo, Ruth Mateos; Gimeno, Ricardo

2013-01-01

This paper proposes adapting a particle filtering algorithm to model online Spanish real estate and job search market segments based on the Lotka-Volterra competition equations. For this purpose the authors use data on Internet information searches from Google Trends to proxy for market share. Market share evolution estimations are coherent with those observed in Google Trends. The results show evidence of low website incompatibility in the markets analyzed. Competitive oligopolies are most common in such low-competition markets, instead of the monopolies predicted by theoretical ecology models under strong competition conditions.

Evidence-based optimal number of radiotherapy fractions for cancer: A useful tool to estimate radiotherapy demand.

PubMed

Wong, Karen; Delaney, Geoff P; Barton, Michael B

2016-04-01

The recently updated optimal radiotherapy utilisation model estimated that 48.3% of all cancer patients should receive external beam radiotherapy at least once during their disease course. Adapting this model, we constructed an evidence-based model to estimate the optimal number of fractions for notifiable cancers in Australia to determine equipment and workload implications. The optimal number of fractions was calculated based on the frequency of specific clinical conditions where radiotherapy is indicated and the evidence-based recommended number of fractions for each condition. Sensitivity analysis was performed to assess the impact of variables on the model. Of the 27 cancer sites, the optimal number of fractions for the first course of radiotherapy ranged from 0 to 23.3 per cancer patient, and 1.5 to 29.1 per treatment course. Brain, prostate and head and neck cancers had the highest average number of fractions per course. Overall, the optimal number of fractions was 9.4 per cancer patient (range 8.7-10.0) and 19.4 per course (range 18.0-20.7). These results provide valuable data for radiotherapy services planning and comparison with actual practice. The model can be easily adapted by inserting population-specific epidemiological data thus making it applicable to other jurisdictions. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Adaptive Quantification and Longitudinal Analysis of Pulmonary Emphysema with a Hidden Markov Measure Field Model

PubMed Central

Häme, Yrjö; Angelini, Elsa D.; Hoffman, Eric A.; Barr, R. Graham; Laine, Andrew F.

2014-01-01

The extent of pulmonary emphysema is commonly estimated from CT images by computing the proportional area of voxels below a predefined attenuation threshold. However, the reliability of this approach is limited by several factors that affect the CT intensity distributions in the lung. This work presents a novel method for emphysema quantification, based on parametric modeling of intensity distributions in the lung and a hidden Markov measure field model to segment emphysematous regions. The framework adapts to the characteristics of an image to ensure a robust quantification of emphysema under varying CT imaging protocols and differences in parenchymal intensity distributions due to factors such as inspiration level. Compared to standard approaches, the present model involves a larger number of parameters, most of which can be estimated from data, to handle the variability encountered in lung CT scans. The method was used to quantify emphysema on a cohort of 87 subjects, with repeated CT scans acquired over a time period of 8 years using different imaging protocols. The scans were acquired approximately annually, and the data set included a total of 365 scans. The results show that the emphysema estimates produced by the proposed method have very high intra-subject correlation values. By reducing sensitivity to changes in imaging protocol, the method provides a more robust estimate than standard approaches. In addition, the generated emphysema delineations promise great advantages for regional analysis of emphysema extent and progression, possibly advancing disease subtyping. PMID:24759984

Integrated model reference adaptive control and time-varying angular rate estimation for micro-machined gyroscopes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsai, Nan-Chyuan; Sue, Chung-Yang

2010-02-01

Owing to the imposed but undesired accelerations such as quadrature error and cross-axis perturbation, the micro-machined gyroscope would not be unconditionally retained at resonant mode. Once the preset resonance is not sustained, the performance of the micro-gyroscope is accordingly degraded. In this article, a direct model reference adaptive control loop which is integrated with a modified disturbance estimating observer (MDEO) is proposed to guarantee the resonant oscillations at drive mode and counterbalance the undesired disturbance mainly caused by quadrature error and cross-axis perturbation. The parameters of controller are on-line innovated by the dynamic error between the MDEO output and expected response. In addition, Lyapunov stability theory is employed to examine the stability of the closed-loop control system. Finally, the efficacy of numerical evaluation on the exerted time-varying angular rate, which is to be detected and measured by the gyroscope, is verified by intensive simulations.

Modeling adaptive kernels from probabilistic phylogenetic trees.

PubMed

Nicotra, Luca; Micheli, Alessio

2009-01-01

Modeling phylogenetic interactions is an open issue in many computational biology problems. In the context of gene function prediction we introduce a class of kernels for structured data leveraging on a hierarchical probabilistic modeling of phylogeny among species. We derive three kernels belonging to this setting: a sufficient statistics kernel, a Fisher kernel, and a probability product kernel. The new kernels are used in the context of support vector machine learning. The kernels adaptivity is obtained through the estimation of the parameters of a tree structured model of evolution using as observed data phylogenetic profiles encoding the presence or absence of specific genes in a set of fully sequenced genomes. We report results obtained in the prediction of the functional class of the proteins of the budding yeast Saccharomyces cerevisae which favorably compare to a standard vector based kernel and to a non-adaptive tree kernel function. A further comparative analysis is performed in order to assess the impact of the different components of the proposed approach. We show that the key features of the proposed kernels are the adaptivity to the input domain and the ability to deal with structured data interpreted through a graphical model representation.

Quantitative assessment of the importance of phenotypic plasticity in adaptation to climate change in wild bird populations.

PubMed

Vedder, Oscar; Bouwhuis, Sandra; Sheldon, Ben C

2013-07-01

Predictions about the fate of species or populations under climate change scenarios typically neglect adaptive evolution and phenotypic plasticity, the two major mechanisms by which organisms can adapt to changing local conditions. As a consequence, we have little understanding of the scope for organisms to track changing environments by in situ adaptation. Here, we use a detailed individual-specific long-term population study of great tits (Parus major) breeding in Wytham Woods, Oxford, UK to parameterise a mechanistic model and thus directly estimate the rate of environmental change to which in situ adaptation is possible. Using the effect of changes in early spring temperature on temporal synchrony between birds and a critical food resource, we focus in particular on the contribution of phenotypic plasticity to population persistence. Despite using conservative estimates for evolutionary and reproductive potential, our results suggest little risk of population extinction under projected local temperature change; however, this conclusion relies heavily on the extent to which phenotypic plasticity tracks the changing environment. Extrapolating the model to a broad range of life histories in birds suggests that the importance of phenotypic plasticity for adjustment to projected rates of temperature change increases with slower life histories, owing to lower evolutionary potential. Understanding the determinants and constraints on phenotypic plasticity in natural populations is thus crucial for characterising the risks that rapidly changing environments pose for the persistence of such populations.

A Comparison of Linking and Concurrent Calibration under the Graded Response Model.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kim, Seock-Ho; Cohen, Allan S.

Applications of item response theory to practical testing problems including equating, differential item functioning, and computerized adaptive testing, require that item parameter estimates be placed onto a common metric. In this study, two methods for developing a common metric for the graded response model under item response theory were…

Comparison of different estimation techniques for biomass concentration in large scale yeast fermentation.

PubMed

Hocalar, A; Türker, M; Karakuzu, C; Yüzgeç, U

2011-04-01

In this study, previously developed five different state estimation methods are examined and compared for estimation of biomass concentrations at a production scale fed-batch bioprocess. These methods are i. estimation based on kinetic model of overflow metabolism; ii. estimation based on metabolic black-box model; iii. estimation based on observer; iv. estimation based on artificial neural network; v. estimation based on differential evaluation. Biomass concentrations are estimated from available measurements and compared with experimental data obtained from large scale fermentations. The advantages and disadvantages of the presented techniques are discussed with regard to accuracy, reproducibility, number of primary measurements required and adaptation to different working conditions. Among the various techniques, the metabolic black-box method seems to have advantages although the number of measurements required is more than that for the other methods. However, the required extra measurements are based on commonly employed instruments in an industrial environment. This method is used for developing a model based control of fed-batch yeast fermentations. Copyright © 2010 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimation of Faults in DC Electrical Power System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gorinevsky, Dimitry; Boyd, Stephen; Poll, Scott

2009-01-01

This paper demonstrates a novel optimization-based approach to estimating fault states in a DC power system. Potential faults changing the circuit topology are included along with faulty measurements. Our approach can be considered as a relaxation of the mixed estimation problem. We develop a linear model of the circuit and pose a convex problem for estimating the faults and other hidden states. A sparse fault vector solution is computed by using 11 regularization. The solution is computed reliably and efficiently, and gives accurate diagnostics on the faults. We demonstrate a real-time implementation of the approach for an instrumented electrical power system testbed, the ADAPT testbed at NASA ARC. The estimates are computed in milliseconds on a PC. The approach performs well despite unmodeled transients and other modeling uncertainties present in the system.

Aerodynamic loads on buses due to crosswind gusts: extended analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drugge, Lars; Juhlin, Magnus

2010-12-01

The objective of this work is to use inverse simulations on measured vehicle data in order to estimate the aerodynamic loads on a bus when exposed to crosswind situations. Tyre forces, driver input, wind velocity and vehicle response were measured on a typical coach when subjected to natural crosswind gusts. Based on these measurements and a detailed MBS vehicle model, the aerodynamic loads were estimated through inverse simulations. In order to estimate the lift force, roll and pitch moments in addition to the lateral force and yaw moment, the simulation model was extended by also incorporating the estimation of the vertical road disturbances. The proposed method enables the estimation of aerodynamic loads due to crosswind gusts without using a full scale wind tunnel adapted for crosswind excitation.

Effects of phase vector and history extension on prediction power of adaptive-network based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) model for a real scale anaerobic wastewater treatment plant operating under unsteady state.

PubMed

Perendeci, Altinay; Arslan, Sever; Tanyolaç, Abdurrahman; Celebi, Serdar S

2009-10-01

A conceptual neural fuzzy model based on adaptive-network based fuzzy inference system, ANFIS, was proposed using available input on-line and off-line operational variables for a sugar factory anaerobic wastewater treatment plant operating under unsteady state to estimate the effluent chemical oxygen demand, COD. The predictive power of the developed model was improved as a new approach by adding the phase vector and the recent values of COD up to 5-10 days, longer than overall retention time of wastewater in the system. History of last 10 days for COD effluent with two-valued phase vector in the input variable matrix including all parameters had more predictive power. History of 7 days with two-valued phase vector in the matrix comprised of only on-line variables yielded fairly well estimations. The developed ANFIS model with phase vector and history extension has been able to adequately represent the behavior of the treatment system.

Intelligent flight control systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stengel, Robert F.

1993-01-01

The capabilities of flight control systems can be enhanced by designing them to emulate functions of natural intelligence. Intelligent control functions fall in three categories. Declarative actions involve decision-making, providing models for system monitoring, goal planning, and system/scenario identification. Procedural actions concern skilled behavior and have parallels in guidance, navigation, and adaptation. Reflexive actions are spontaneous, inner-loop responses for control and estimation. Intelligent flight control systems learn knowledge of the aircraft and its mission and adapt to changes in the flight environment. Cognitive models form an efficient basis for integrating 'outer-loop/inner-loop' control functions and for developing robust parallel-processing algorithms.

SIR-B ocean-wave enhancement with fast Fourier transform techniques

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tilley, David G.

1987-01-01

Shuttle Imaging Radar (SIR-B) imagery is Fourier filtered to remove the estimated system-transfer function, reduce speckle noise, and produce ocean scenes with a gray scale that is proportional to wave height. The SIR-B system response to speckled scenes of uniform surfaces yields an estimate of the stationary wavenumber response of the imaging radar, modeled by the 15 even terms of an eighth-order two-dimensional polynomial. Speckle can also be used to estimate the dynamic wavenumber response of the system due to surface motion during the aperture synthesis period, modeled with a single adaptive parameter describing an exponential correlation along track. A Fourier filter can then be devised to correct for the wavenumber response of the remote sensor and scene correlation, with subsequent subtraction of an estimate of the speckle noise component. A linearized velocity bunching model, combined with a surface tilt and hydrodynamic model, is incorporated in the Fourier filter to derive estimates of wave height from the radar intensities corresponding to individual picture elements.

Performance Enhancement for a GPS Vector-Tracking Loop Utilizing an Adaptive Iterated Extended Kalman Filter

PubMed Central

Chen, Xiyuan; Wang, Xiying; Xu, Yuan

2014-01-01

This paper deals with the problem of state estimation for the vector-tracking loop of a software-defined Global Positioning System (GPS) receiver. For a nonlinear system that has the model error and white Gaussian noise, a noise statistics estimator is used to estimate the model error, and based on this, a modified iterated extended Kalman filter (IEKF) named adaptive iterated Kalman filter (AIEKF) is proposed. A vector-tracking GPS receiver utilizing AIEKF is implemented to evaluate the performance of the proposed method. Through road tests, it is shown that the proposed method has an obvious accuracy advantage over the IEKF and Adaptive Extended Kalman filter (AEKF) in position determination. The results show that the proposed method is effective to reduce the root-mean-square error (RMSE) of position (including longitude, latitude and altitude). Comparing with EKF, the position RMSE values of AIEKF are reduced by about 45.1%, 40.9% and 54.6% in the east, north and up directions, respectively. Comparing with IEKF, the position RMSE values of AIEKF are reduced by about 25.7%, 19.3% and 35.7% in the east, north and up directions, respectively. Compared with AEKF, the position RMSE values of AIEKF are reduced by about 21.6%, 15.5% and 30.7% in the east, north and up directions, respectively. PMID:25502124

Performance enhancement for a GPS vector-tracking loop utilizing an adaptive iterated extended Kalman filter.

PubMed

Chen, Xiyuan; Wang, Xiying; Xu, Yuan

2014-12-09

This paper deals with the problem of state estimation for the vector-tracking loop of a software-defined Global Positioning System (GPS) receiver. For a nonlinear system that has the model error and white Gaussian noise, a noise statistics estimator is used to estimate the model error, and based on this, a modified iterated extended Kalman filter (IEKF) named adaptive iterated Kalman filter (AIEKF) is proposed. A vector-tracking GPS receiver utilizing AIEKF is implemented to evaluate the performance of the proposed method. Through road tests, it is shown that the proposed method has an obvious accuracy advantage over the IEKF and Adaptive Extended Kalman filter (AEKF) in position determination. The results show that the proposed method is effective to reduce the root-mean-square error (RMSE) of position (including longitude, latitude and altitude). Comparing with EKF, the position RMSE values of AIEKF are reduced by about 45.1%, 40.9% and 54.6% in the east, north and up directions, respectively. Comparing with IEKF, the position RMSE values of AIEKF are reduced by about 25.7%, 19.3% and 35.7% in the east, north and up directions, respectively. Compared with AEKF, the position RMSE values of AIEKF are reduced by about 21.6%, 15.5% and 30.7% in the east, north and up directions, respectively.

A global logrank test for adaptive treatment strategies based on observational studies.

PubMed

Li, Zhiguo; Valenstein, Marcia; Pfeiffer, Paul; Ganoczy, Dara

2014-02-28

In studying adaptive treatment strategies, a natural question that is of paramount interest is whether there is any significant difference among all possible treatment strategies. When the outcome variable of interest is time-to-event, we propose an inverse probability weighted logrank test for testing the equivalence of a fixed set of pre-specified adaptive treatment strategies based on data from an observational study. The weights take into account both the possible selection bias in an observational study and the fact that the same subject may be consistent with more than one treatment strategy. The asymptotic distribution of the weighted logrank statistic under the null hypothesis is obtained. We show that, in an observational study where the treatment selection probabilities need to be estimated, the estimation of these probabilities does not have an effect on the asymptotic distribution of the weighted logrank statistic, as long as the estimation of the parameters in the models for these probabilities is n-consistent. Finite sample performance of the test is assessed via a simulation study. We also show in the simulation that the test can be pretty robust to misspecification of the models for the probabilities of treatment selection. The method is applied to analyze data on antidepressant adherence time from an observational database maintained at the Department of Veterans Affairs' Serious Mental Illness Treatment Research and Evaluation Center. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

State Estimation for Landing Maneuver on High Performance Aircraft

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suresh, P. S.; Sura, Niranjan K.; Shankar, K.

2018-01-01

State estimation methods are popular means for validating aerodynamic database on aircraft flight maneuver performance characteristics. In this work, the state estimation method during landing maneuver is explored for the first of its kind, using upper diagonal adaptive extended Kalman filter (UD-AEKF) with fuzzy based adaptive tunning of process noise matrix. The mathematical model for symmetrical landing maneuver consists of non-linear flight mechanics equation representing Aircraft longitudinal dynamics. The UD-AEKF algorithm is implemented in MATLAB environment and the states with bias is considered to be the initial conditions just prior to the flare. The measurement data is obtained from a non-linear 6 DOF pilot in loop simulation using FORTRAN. These simulated measurement data is additively mixed with process and measurement noises, which are used as an input for UD-AEKF. Then, the governing states that dictate the landing loads at the instant of touch down are compared. The method is verified using flight data wherein, the vertical acceleration at the aircraft center of gravity (CG) is compared. Two possible outcome of purely relying on the aircraft measured data is highlighted. It is observed that, with the implementation of adaptive fuzzy logic based extended Kalman filter tuned to adapt for aircraft landing dynamics, the methodology improves the data quality of the states that are sourced from noisy measurements.

Adaptive Neural Network-Based Event-Triggered Control of Single-Input Single-Output Nonlinear Discrete-Time Systems.

PubMed

Sahoo, Avimanyu; Xu, Hao; Jagannathan, Sarangapani

2016-01-01

This paper presents a novel adaptive neural network (NN) control of single-input and single-output uncertain nonlinear discrete-time systems under event sampled NN inputs. In this control scheme, the feedback signals are transmitted, and the NN weights are tuned in an aperiodic manner at the event sampled instants. After reviewing the NN approximation property with event sampled inputs, an adaptive state estimator (SE), consisting of linearly parameterized NNs, is utilized to approximate the unknown system dynamics in an event sampled context. The SE is viewed as a model and its approximated dynamics and the state vector, during any two events, are utilized for the event-triggered controller design. An adaptive event-trigger condition is derived by using both the estimated NN weights and a dead-zone operator to determine the event sampling instants. This condition both facilitates the NN approximation and reduces the transmission of feedback signals. The ultimate boundedness of both the NN weight estimation error and the system state vector is demonstrated through the Lyapunov approach. As expected, during an initial online learning phase, events are observed more frequently. Over time with the convergence of the NN weights, the inter-event times increase, thereby lowering the number of triggered events. These claims are illustrated through the simulation results.

Distributed recurrent neural forward models with synaptic adaptation and CPG-based control for complex behaviors of walking robots

PubMed Central

Dasgupta, Sakyasingha; Goldschmidt, Dennis; Wörgötter, Florentin; Manoonpong, Poramate

2015-01-01

Walking animals, like stick insects, cockroaches or ants, demonstrate a fascinating range of locomotive abilities and complex behaviors. The locomotive behaviors can consist of a variety of walking patterns along with adaptation that allow the animals to deal with changes in environmental conditions, like uneven terrains, gaps, obstacles etc. Biological study has revealed that such complex behaviors are a result of a combination of biomechanics and neural mechanism thus representing the true nature of embodied interactions. While the biomechanics helps maintain flexibility and sustain a variety of movements, the neural mechanisms generate movements while making appropriate predictions crucial for achieving adaptation. Such predictions or planning ahead can be achieved by way of internal models that are grounded in the overall behavior of the animal. Inspired by these findings, we present here, an artificial bio-inspired walking system which effectively combines biomechanics (in terms of the body and leg structures) with the underlying neural mechanisms. The neural mechanisms consist of (1) central pattern generator based control for generating basic rhythmic patterns and coordinated movements, (2) distributed (at each leg) recurrent neural network based adaptive forward models with efference copies as internal models for sensory predictions and instantaneous state estimations, and (3) searching and elevation control for adapting the movement of an individual leg to deal with different environmental conditions. Using simulations we show that this bio-inspired approach with adaptive internal models allows the walking robot to perform complex locomotive behaviors as observed in insects, including walking on undulated terrains, crossing large gaps, leg damage adaptations, as well as climbing over high obstacles. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the newly developed recurrent network based approach to online forward models outperforms the adaptive neuron forward models, which have hitherto been the state of the art, to model a subset of similar walking behaviors in walking robots. PMID:26441629

Multilevel mixed effects parametric survival models using adaptive Gauss-Hermite quadrature with application to recurrent events and individual participant data meta-analysis.

PubMed

Crowther, Michael J; Look, Maxime P; Riley, Richard D

2014-09-28

Multilevel mixed effects survival models are used in the analysis of clustered survival data, such as repeated events, multicenter clinical trials, and individual participant data (IPD) meta-analyses, to investigate heterogeneity in baseline risk and covariate effects. In this paper, we extend parametric frailty models including the exponential, Weibull and Gompertz proportional hazards (PH) models and the log logistic, log normal, and generalized gamma accelerated failure time models to allow any number of normally distributed random effects. Furthermore, we extend the flexible parametric survival model of Royston and Parmar, modeled on the log-cumulative hazard scale using restricted cubic splines, to include random effects while also allowing for non-PH (time-dependent effects). Maximum likelihood is used to estimate the models utilizing adaptive or nonadaptive Gauss-Hermite quadrature. The methods are evaluated through simulation studies representing clinically plausible scenarios of a multicenter trial and IPD meta-analysis, showing good performance of the estimation method. The flexible parametric mixed effects model is illustrated using a dataset of patients with kidney disease and repeated times to infection and an IPD meta-analysis of prognostic factor studies in patients with breast cancer. User-friendly Stata software is provided to implement the methods. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Efficient robust doubly adaptive regularized regression with applications.

PubMed

Karunamuni, Rohana J; Kong, Linglong; Tu, Wei

2018-01-01

We consider the problem of estimation and variable selection for general linear regression models. Regularized regression procedures have been widely used for variable selection, but most existing methods perform poorly in the presence of outliers. We construct a new penalized procedure that simultaneously attains full efficiency and maximum robustness. Furthermore, the proposed procedure satisfies the oracle properties. The new procedure is designed to achieve sparse and robust solutions by imposing adaptive weights on both the decision loss and the penalty function. The proposed method of estimation and variable selection attains full efficiency when the model is correct and, at the same time, achieves maximum robustness when outliers are present. We examine the robustness properties using the finite-sample breakdown point and an influence function. We show that the proposed estimator attains the maximum breakdown point. Furthermore, there is no loss in efficiency when there are no outliers or the error distribution is normal. For practical implementation of the proposed method, we present a computational algorithm. We examine the finite-sample and robustness properties using Monte Carlo studies. Two datasets are also analyzed.

HIGH DIMENSIONAL COVARIANCE MATRIX ESTIMATION IN APPROXIMATE FACTOR MODELS.

PubMed

Fan, Jianqing; Liao, Yuan; Mincheva, Martina

2011-01-01

The variance covariance matrix plays a central role in the inferential theories of high dimensional factor models in finance and economics. Popular regularization methods of directly exploiting sparsity are not directly applicable to many financial problems. Classical methods of estimating the covariance matrices are based on the strict factor models, assuming independent idiosyncratic components. This assumption, however, is restrictive in practical applications. By assuming sparse error covariance matrix, we allow the presence of the cross-sectional correlation even after taking out common factors, and it enables us to combine the merits of both methods. We estimate the sparse covariance using the adaptive thresholding technique as in Cai and Liu (2011), taking into account the fact that direct observations of the idiosyncratic components are unavailable. The impact of high dimensionality on the covariance matrix estimation based on the factor structure is then studied.

An adaptive interpolation scheme for molecular potential energy surfaces

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kowalewski, Markus, E-mail: mkowalew@uci.edu; Larsson, Elisabeth; Heryudono, Alfa

The calculation of potential energy surfaces for quantum dynamics can be a time consuming task—especially when a high level of theory for the electronic structure calculation is required. We propose an adaptive interpolation algorithm based on polyharmonic splines combined with a partition of unity approach. The adaptive node refinement allows to greatly reduce the number of sample points by employing a local error estimate. The algorithm and its scaling behavior are evaluated for a model function in 2, 3, and 4 dimensions. The developed algorithm allows for a more rapid and reliable interpolation of a potential energy surface within amore » given accuracy compared to the non-adaptive version.« less

Application of Novel Lateral Tire Force Sensors to Vehicle Parameter Estimation of Electric Vehicles

PubMed Central

Nam, Kanghyun

2015-01-01

This article presents methods for estimating lateral vehicle velocity and tire cornering stiffness, which are key parameters in vehicle dynamics control, using lateral tire force measurements. Lateral tire forces acting on each tire are directly measured by load-sensing hub bearings that were invented and further developed by NSK Ltd. For estimating the lateral vehicle velocity, tire force models considering lateral load transfer effects are used, and a recursive least square algorithm is adapted to identify the lateral vehicle velocity as an unknown parameter. Using the estimated lateral vehicle velocity, tire cornering stiffness, which is an important tire parameter dominating the vehicle’s cornering responses, is estimated. For the practical implementation, the cornering stiffness estimation algorithm based on a simple bicycle model is developed and discussed. Finally, proposed estimation algorithms were evaluated using experimental test data. PMID:26569246

Adaptive mixed finite element methods for Darcy flow in fractured porous media

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Huangxin; Salama, Amgad; Sun, Shuyu

2016-10-01

In this paper, we propose adaptive mixed finite element methods for simulating the single-phase Darcy flow in two-dimensional fractured porous media. The reduced model that we use for the simulation is a discrete fracture model coupling Darcy flows in the matrix and the fractures, and the fractures are modeled by one-dimensional entities. The Raviart-Thomas mixed finite element methods are utilized for the solution of the coupled Darcy flows in the matrix and the fractures. In order to improve the efficiency of the simulation, we use adaptive mixed finite element methods based on novel residual-based a posteriori error estimators. In addition, we develop an efficient upscaling algorithm to compute the effective permeability of the fractured porous media. Several interesting examples of Darcy flow in the fractured porous media are presented to demonstrate the robustness of the algorithm.

A control systems engineering approach for adaptive behavioral interventions: illustration with a fibromyalgia intervention.

PubMed

Deshpande, Sunil; Rivera, Daniel E; Younger, Jarred W; Nandola, Naresh N

2014-09-01

The term adaptive intervention has been used in behavioral medicine to describe operationalized and individually tailored strategies for prevention and treatment of chronic, relapsing disorders. Control systems engineering offers an attractive means for designing and implementing adaptive behavioral interventions that feature intensive measurement and frequent decision-making over time. This is illustrated in this paper for the case of a low-dose naltrexone treatment intervention for fibromyalgia. System identification methods from engineering are used to estimate dynamical models from daily diary reports completed by participants. These dynamical models then form part of a model predictive control algorithm which systematically decides on treatment dosages based on measurements obtained under real-life conditions involving noise, disturbances, and uncertainty. The effectiveness and implications of this approach for behavioral interventions (in general) and pain treatment (in particular) are demonstrated using informative simulations.

In-memory integration of existing software components for parallel adaptive unstructured mesh workflows

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Smith, Cameron W.; Granzow, Brian; Diamond, Gerrett

Unstructured mesh methods, like finite elements and finite volumes, support the effective analysis of complex physical behaviors modeled by partial differential equations over general threedimensional domains. The most reliable and efficient methods apply adaptive procedures with a-posteriori error estimators that indicate where and how the mesh is to be modified. Although adaptive meshes can have two to three orders of magnitude fewer elements than a more uniform mesh for the same level of accuracy, there are many complex simulations where the meshes required are so large that they can only be solved on massively parallel systems.

In-memory integration of existing software components for parallel adaptive unstructured mesh workflows

DOE PAGES

Smith, Cameron W.; Granzow, Brian; Diamond, Gerrett; ...

2017-01-01

Unstructured mesh methods, like finite elements and finite volumes, support the effective analysis of complex physical behaviors modeled by partial differential equations over general threedimensional domains. The most reliable and efficient methods apply adaptive procedures with a-posteriori error estimators that indicate where and how the mesh is to be modified. Although adaptive meshes can have two to three orders of magnitude fewer elements than a more uniform mesh for the same level of accuracy, there are many complex simulations where the meshes required are so large that they can only be solved on massively parallel systems.

Time-varying SMART design and data analysis methods for evaluating adaptive intervention effects.

PubMed

Dai, Tianjiao; Shete, Sanjay

2016-08-30

In a standard two-stage SMART design, the intermediate response to the first-stage intervention is measured at a fixed time point for all participants. Subsequently, responders and non-responders are re-randomized and the final outcome of interest is measured at the end of the study. To reduce the side effects and costs associated with first-stage interventions in a SMART design, we proposed a novel time-varying SMART design in which individuals are re-randomized to the second-stage interventions as soon as a pre-fixed intermediate response is observed. With this strategy, the duration of the first-stage intervention will vary. We developed a time-varying mixed effects model and a joint model that allows for modeling the outcomes of interest (intermediate and final) and the random durations of the first-stage interventions simultaneously. The joint model borrows strength from the survival sub-model in which the duration of the first-stage intervention (i.e., time to response to the first-stage intervention) is modeled. We performed a simulation study to evaluate the statistical properties of these models. Our simulation results showed that the two modeling approaches were both able to provide good estimations of the means of the final outcomes of all the embedded interventions in a SMART. However, the joint modeling approach was more accurate for estimating the coefficients of first-stage interventions and time of the intervention. We conclude that the joint modeling approach provides more accurate parameter estimates and a higher estimated coverage probability than the single time-varying mixed effects model, and we recommend the joint model for analyzing data generated from time-varying SMART designs. In addition, we showed that the proposed time-varying SMART design is cost-efficient and equally effective in selecting the optimal embedded adaptive intervention as the standard SMART design.

Adaptive nonlocal means filtering based on local noise level for CT denoising

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Zhoubo; Trzasko, Joshua D.; Lake, David S.

2014-01-15

Purpose: To develop and evaluate an image-domain noise reduction method based on a modified nonlocal means (NLM) algorithm that is adaptive to local noise level of CT images and to implement this method in a time frame consistent with clinical workflow. Methods: A computationally efficient technique for local noise estimation directly from CT images was developed. A forward projection, based on a 2D fan-beam approximation, was used to generate the projection data, with a noise model incorporating the effects of the bowtie filter and automatic exposure control. The noise propagation from projection data to images was analytically derived. The analyticalmore » noise map was validated using repeated scans of a phantom. A 3D NLM denoising algorithm was modified to adapt its denoising strength locally based on this noise map. The performance of this adaptive NLM filter was evaluated in phantom studies in terms of in-plane and cross-plane high-contrast spatial resolution, noise power spectrum (NPS), subjective low-contrast spatial resolution using the American College of Radiology (ACR) accreditation phantom, and objective low-contrast spatial resolution using a channelized Hotelling model observer (CHO). Graphical processing units (GPU) implementation of this noise map calculation and the adaptive NLM filtering were developed to meet demands of clinical workflow. Adaptive NLM was piloted on lower dose scans in clinical practice. Results: The local noise level estimation matches the noise distribution determined from multiple repetitive scans of a phantom, demonstrated by small variations in the ratio map between the analytical noise map and the one calculated from repeated scans. The phantom studies demonstrated that the adaptive NLM filter can reduce noise substantially without degrading the high-contrast spatial resolution, as illustrated by modulation transfer function and slice sensitivity profile results. The NPS results show that adaptive NLM denoising preserves the shape and peak frequency of the noise power spectrum better than commercial smoothing kernels, and indicate that the spatial resolution at low contrast levels is not significantly degraded. Both the subjective evaluation using the ACR phantom and the objective evaluation on a low-contrast detection task using a CHO model observer demonstrate an improvement on low-contrast performance. The GPU implementation can process and transfer 300 slice images within 5 min. On patient data, the adaptive NLM algorithm provides more effective denoising of CT data throughout a volume than standard NLM, and may allow significant lowering of radiation dose. After a two week pilot study of lower dose CT urography and CT enterography exams, both GI and GU radiology groups elected to proceed with permanent implementation of adaptive NLM in their GI and GU CT practices. Conclusions: This work describes and validates a computationally efficient technique for noise map estimation directly from CT images, and an adaptive NLM filtering based on this noise map, on phantom and patient data. Both the noise map calculation and the adaptive NLM filtering can be performed in times that allow integration with clinical workflow. The adaptive NLM algorithm provides effective denoising of CT data throughout a volume, and may allow significant lowering of radiation dose.« less

A hybrid pareto mixture for conditional asymmetric fat-tailed distributions.

PubMed

Carreau, Julie; Bengio, Yoshua

2009-07-01

In many cases, we observe some variables X that contain predictive information over a scalar variable of interest Y , with (X,Y) pairs observed in a training set. We can take advantage of this information to estimate the conditional density p(Y|X = x). In this paper, we propose a conditional mixture model with hybrid Pareto components to estimate p(Y|X = x). The hybrid Pareto is a Gaussian whose upper tail has been replaced by a generalized Pareto tail. A third parameter, in addition to the location and spread parameters of the Gaussian, controls the heaviness of the upper tail. Using the hybrid Pareto in a mixture model results in a nonparametric estimator that can adapt to multimodality, asymmetry, and heavy tails. A conditional density estimator is built by modeling the parameters of the mixture estimator as functions of X. We use a neural network to implement these functions. Such conditional density estimators have important applications in many domains such as finance and insurance. We show experimentally that this novel approach better models the conditional density in terms of likelihood, compared to competing algorithms: conditional mixture models with other types of components and a classical kernel-based nonparametric model.

Adaptive Estimation and Heuristic Optimization of Nonlinear Spacecraft Attitude Dynamics

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-09-15

Algorithm GPS Global Positioning System HOUF Higher Order Unscented Filter IC initial conditions IMM Interacting Multiple Model IMU Inertial Measurement Unit ...sources ranging from inertial measurement units to star sensors are used to construct observations for attitude estimation algorithms. The sensor...parameters. A single vector measurement will provide two independent parameters, as a unit vector constraint removes a DOF making the problem underdetermined

Adaptation and colonization history affect the evolution of clines in two introduced species.

PubMed

Keller, Stephen R; Sowell, Dexter R; Neiman, Maurine; Wolfe, Lorne M; Taylor, Douglas R

2009-08-01

Phenotypic and genetic clines have long been synonymous with adaptive evolution. However, other processes (for example, migration, range expansion, invasion) may generate clines in traits or loci across geographical and environmental gradients. It is therefore important to distinguish between clines that represent adaptive evolution and those that result from selectively neutral demographic or genetic processes. We tested for the differentiation of phenotypic traits along environmental gradients using two species in the genus Silene, whilst statistically controlling for colonization history and founder effects. We sampled seed families from across the native and introduced ranges, genotyped individuals and estimated phenotypic differentiation in replicated common gardens. The results suggest that post-glacial expansion of S. vulgaris and S. latifolia involved both neutral and adaptive genetic differentiation (clines) of life history traits along major axes of environmental variation in Europe and North America. Phenotypic clines generally persisted when tested against the neutral expectation, although some clines disappeared (and one cline emerged) when the effects of genetic ancestry were statistically removed. Colonization history, estimated using genetic markers, is a useful null model for tests of adaptive trait divergence, especially during range expansion and invasion when selection and gene flow may not have reached equilibrium.

Dietary fat affects heat production and other variables of equine performance, under hot and humid conditions.

PubMed

Kronfeld, D S

1996-07-01

Does dietary fat supplementation during conditioning improve athletic performance, especially in the heat? Fat adaptation has been used to increase energy density, decrease bowel bulk and faecal output and reduce health risks associated with hydrolysable carbohydrate overload. It may also reduce spontaneous activity and reactivity (excitability), increase fatty acid oxidation, reduce CO2 production and associated acidosis, enhance metabolic regulation of glycolysis, improve both aerobic and anaerobic performance and substantially reduce heat production. A thermochemical analysis of ATP generation showed the least heat release during the direct oxidation of long chain fatty acids, which have a 3% advantage over glucose and 20 to 30% over short chain fatty acids and amino acids. Indirect oxidation via storage as triglyceride increased heat loss during ATP generation by 3% for stearic acid, 65% for glucose and 174% for acetic acid. Meal feeding and nutrient storage, therefore, accentuates the advantage of dietary fat. A calorimetric model was based on initial estimates of net energy for competitive work (10.76 MJ for the Endurance Test of an Olympic level 3-day-event), other work (14.4 MJ/day) and maintenance (36 MJ), then applied estimates of efficiencies to derive associated heat productions for the utilisation of 3 diets, Diet A: hay (100), Diet B: hay and oats (50:50) and Diet C: hay, oats and vegetable oil (45:45:10), the difference between the last 2 diets representing fat adaptation. During a 90.5 min speed and stamina test, heat production was estimated as 37, 35.4 and 34.6 MJ for the 3 diets, respectively, an advantage 0.8 MJ less heat load for the fat adapted horse, which would reduce water needed for evaporation by 0.33 kg and reduce body temperature increase by about 0.07 degree C. Total estimated daily heat production was 105, 93 and 88 MJ for the 3 diets, respectively, suggesting a 5 MJ advantage for the fat adapted horse (Diet C vs. Diet B). Estimated intake energy was 348, 269 and 239 MJ for the 3 diets, respectively, and corresponding daily intakes as fed were 22.2, 16.6 and 12.9 kg, an advantage of 3.7 kg for the fat adapted horse. Water requirement was estimated to decrease by about 6 kg/day in the fat adapted horse: 4 kg less faecal water output and 2 kg less water for evaporation. This model indicated that the fat supplemented diet reduced daily heat load by 5%, feed intake by 22%, faecal output (and bowel ballast) by 31% and water requirement by 12%. The advantage of fat supplementation over hay and oats was in general about half that gained by hay and oats over hay alone.

The effect of measured and estimated soil hydraulic properties on simulated water regime in the analysis of grapevine adaptability to future climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonfante, Antonello; Alfieri, Silvia Maria; Agrillo, Antonietta; Dragonetti, Giovanna; Mileti, Antonio; Monaco, Eugenia; De Lorenzi, Francesca

2013-04-01

In the last years many research works have been addressed to evaluate the impact of future climate on crop productivity and plant water use at different spatial scales (global, regional, field) by means of simulation models of agricultural crop systems. Most of these approaches use estimated soil hydraulic properties, through pedotransfer functions (PTF). This choice is related to soil data availability: soil data bases lack measured soil hydraulic properties, but generally they contain information that allow the application of PTF . Although the reliability of the predicted future climate scenarios cannot be immediately validated, we address to evaluate the effects of a simplification of the soil system by using PTF. Thus we compare simulations performed with measured soil hydraulic properties versus simulations carried out with estimated properties. The water regimes resulting from the two procedures are evaluated with respect to crop adaptability to future climate. In particular we will examine if the two procedures bring about different seasonal and spatial variations in the soil water regime patterns, and if these patterns influence adaptation options. The present case study uses the agro-hydrological model SWAP (soil-water-atmosphere and plant) and studies future adaptability of grapevine. The study area is a viticultural area of Southern Italy (Valle Telesina, BN) devoted to the production of high quality wines (DOC and DOCG), and characterized by a complex geomorphology and pedology. The future climate scenario (2021-2050) was constructed applying statistical downscaling techniques to GCMs scenarios. The moisture regime for 25 soils of the selected study area was calculated by means of SWAP model, using both measured and estimated soil hydraulic properties. In the simulation, the upper boundary conditions were derived from the regional climate scenarios. Unit gradient in soil water potential was set as lower boundary condition. Crop-specific input data and model parameters were estimated on the basis of scientific literature and assumed to be generically representative of the species. From the output of the simulation runs, the relative evapotranspiration deficit (or Crop Water Stress Index - CWSI) of the soil units was calculated. Since CWSI is considered an important indicator of the qualitative grapevine responses, its pattern in both simulation procedures has been evaluated. The work was carried out within the Italian national project AGROSCENARI funded by the Ministry for Agricultural, Food and Forest Policies (MIPAAF, D.M. 8608/7303/2008)

Adaptive exponential integrate-and-fire model as an effective description of neuronal activity.

PubMed

Brette, Romain; Gerstner, Wulfram

2005-11-01

We introduce a two-dimensional integrate-and-fire model that combines an exponential spike mechanism with an adaptation equation, based on recent theoretical findings. We describe a systematic method to estimate its parameters with simple electrophysiological protocols (current-clamp injection of pulses and ramps) and apply it to a detailed conductance-based model of a regular spiking neuron. Our simple model predicts correctly the timing of 96% of the spikes (+/-2 ms) of the detailed model in response to injection of noisy synaptic conductances. The model is especially reliable in high-conductance states, typical of cortical activity in vivo, in which intrinsic conductances were found to have a reduced role in shaping spike trains. These results are promising because this simple model has enough expressive power to reproduce qualitatively several electrophysiological classes described in vitro.

An Enhanced Adaptive Management Approach for Remediation of Legacy Mercury in the South River

PubMed Central

Foran, Christy M.; Baker, Kelsie M.; Grosso, Nancy R.; Linkov, Igor

2015-01-01

Uncertainties about future conditions and the effects of chosen actions, as well as increasing resource scarcity, have been driving forces in the utilization of adaptive management strategies. However, many applications of adaptive management have been criticized for a number of shortcomings, including a limited ability to learn from actions and a lack of consideration of stakeholder objectives. To address these criticisms, we supplement existing adaptive management approaches with a decision-analytical approach that first informs the initial selection of management alternatives and then allows for periodic re-evaluation or phased implementation of management alternatives based on monitoring information and incorporation of stakeholder values. We describe the application of this enhanced adaptive management (EAM) framework to compare remedial alternatives for mercury in the South River, based on an understanding of the loading and behavior of mercury in the South River near Waynesboro, VA. The outcomes show that the ranking of remedial alternatives is influenced by uncertainty in the mercury loading model, by the relative importance placed on different criteria, and by cost estimates. The process itself demonstrates that a decision model can link project performance criteria, decision-maker preferences, environmental models, and short- and long-term monitoring information with management choices to help shape a remediation approach that provides useful information for adaptive, incremental implementation. PMID:25665032

Vehicle States Observer Using Adaptive Tire-Road Friction Estimator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwak, Byunghak; Park, Youngjin

Vehicle stability control system is a new idea which can enhance the vehicle stability and handling in the emergency situation. This system requires the information of the yaw rate, sideslip angle and road friction in order to control the traction and braking forces at the individual wheels. This paper proposes an observer for the vehicle stability control system. This observer consisted of the state observer for vehicle motion estimation and the road condition estimator for the identification of the coefficient of the road friction. The state observer uses 2 degrees-of-freedom bicycle model and estimates the system variables based on the Kalman filter. The road condition estimator uses the same vehicle model and identifies the coefficient of the tire-road friction based on the recursive least square method. Both estimators make use of each other information. We show the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed scheme under various road conditions through computer simulations of a fifteen degree-of-freedom non-linear vehicle model.

Adaptive Core Simulation Employing Discrete Inverse Theory - Part I: Theory

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Abdel-Khalik, Hany S.; Turinsky, Paul J.

2005-07-15

Use of adaptive simulation is intended to improve the fidelity and robustness of important core attribute predictions such as core power distribution, thermal margins, and core reactivity. Adaptive simulation utilizes a selected set of past and current reactor measurements of reactor observables, i.e., in-core instrumentation readings, to adapt the simulation in a meaningful way. A meaningful adaption will result in high-fidelity and robust adapted core simulator models. To perform adaption, we propose an inverse theory approach in which the multitudes of input data to core simulators, i.e., reactor physics and thermal-hydraulic data, are to be adjusted to improve agreement withmore » measured observables while keeping core simulator models unadapted. At first glance, devising such adaption for typical core simulators with millions of input and observables data would spawn not only several prohibitive challenges but also numerous disparaging concerns. The challenges include the computational burdens of the sensitivity-type calculations required to construct Jacobian operators for the core simulator models. Also, the computational burdens of the uncertainty-type calculations required to estimate the uncertainty information of core simulator input data present a demanding challenge. The concerns however are mainly related to the reliability of the adjusted input data. The methodologies of adaptive simulation are well established in the literature of data adjustment. We adopt the same general framework for data adjustment; however, we refrain from solving the fundamental adjustment equations in a conventional manner. We demonstrate the use of our so-called Efficient Subspace Methods (ESMs) to overcome the computational and storage burdens associated with the core adaption problem. We illustrate the successful use of ESM-based adaptive techniques for a typical boiling water reactor core simulator adaption problem.« less

Evaluating mallard adaptive management models with time series

USGS Publications Warehouse

Conn, P.B.; Kendall, W.L.

2004-01-01

Wildlife practitioners concerned with midcontinent mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) management in the United States have instituted a system of adaptive harvest management (AHM) as an objective format for setting harvest regulations. Under the AHM paradigm, predictions from a set of models that reflect key uncertainties about processes underlying population dynamics are used in coordination with optimization software to determine an optimal set of harvest decisions. Managers use comparisons of the predictive abilities of these models to gauge the relative truth of different hypotheses about density-dependent recruitment and survival, with better-predicting models giving more weight to the determination of harvest regulations. We tested the effectiveness of this strategy by examining convergence rates of 'predictor' models when the true model for population dynamics was known a priori. We generated time series for cases when the a priori model was 1 of the predictor models as well as for several cases when the a priori model was not in the model set. We further examined the addition of different levels of uncertainty into the variance structure of predictor models, reflecting different levels of confidence about estimated parameters. We showed that in certain situations, the model-selection process favors a predictor model that incorporates the hypotheses of additive harvest mortality and weakly density-dependent recruitment, even when the model is not used to generate data. Higher levels of predictor model variance led to decreased rates of convergence to the model that generated the data, but model weight trajectories were in general more stable. We suggest that predictive models should incorporate all sources of uncertainty about estimated parameters, that the variance structure should be similar for all predictor models, and that models with different functional forms for population dynamics should be considered for inclusion in predictor model! sets. All of these suggestions should help lower the probability of erroneous learning in mallard ABM and adaptive management in general.

Local facet approximation for image stitching

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jing; Lai, Shiming; Liu, Yu; Wang, Zhengming; Zhang, Maojun

2018-01-01

Image stitching aims at eliminating multiview parallax and generating a seamless panorama given a set of input images. This paper proposes a local adaptive stitching method, which could achieve both accurate and robust image alignments across the whole panorama. A transformation estimation model is introduced by approximating the scene as a combination of neighboring facets. Then, the local adaptive stitching field is constructed using a series of linear systems of the facet parameters, which enables the parallax handling in three-dimensional space. We also provide a concise but effective global projectivity preserving technique that smoothly varies the transformations from local adaptive to global planar. The proposed model is capable of stitching both normal images and fisheye images. The efficiency of our method is quantitatively demonstrated in the comparative experiments on several challenging cases.

Impacts of ozone air pollution and temperature extremes on crop yields: Spatial variability, adaptation and implications for future food security

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tai, Amos P. K.; Val Martin, Maria

2017-11-01

Ozone air pollution and climate change pose major threats to global crop production, with ramifications for future food security. Previous studies of ozone and warming impacts on crops typically do not account for the strong ozone-temperature correlation when interpreting crop-ozone or crop-temperature relationships, or the spatial variability of crop-to-ozone sensitivity arising from varietal and environmental differences, leading to potential biases in their estimated crop losses. Here we develop an empirical model, called the partial derivative-linear regression (PDLR) model, to estimate the spatial variations in the sensitivities of wheat, maize and soybean yields to ozone exposures and temperature extremes in the US and Europe using a composite of multidecadal datasets, fully correcting for ozone-temperature covariation. We find generally larger and more spatially varying sensitivities of all three crops to ozone exposures than are implied by experimentally derived concentration-response functions used in most previous studies. Stronger ozone tolerance is found in regions with high ozone levels and high consumptive crop water use, reflecting the existence of spatial adaptation and effect of water constraints. The spatially varying sensitivities to temperature extremes also indicate stronger heat tolerance in crops grown in warmer regions. The spatial adaptation of crops to ozone and temperature we find can serve as a surrogate for future adaptation. Using the PDLR-derived sensitivities and 2000-2050 ozone and temperature projections by the Community Earth System Model, we estimate that future warming and unmitigated ozone pollution can combine to cause an average decline in US wheat, maize and soybean production by 13%, 43% and 28%, respectively, and a smaller decline for European crops. Aggressive ozone regulation is shown to offset such decline to various extents, especially for wheat. Our findings demonstrate the importance of considering ozone regulation as well as ozone and climate change adaptation (e.g., selecting heat- and ozone-tolerant cultivars, irrigation) as possible strategies to enhance future food security in response to imminent environmental threats.

Estimating the limits of adaptation from historical behaviour: Insights from the American Climate Prospectus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jina, A.; Hsiang, S. M.; Kopp, R. E., III; Rasmussen, D.; Rising, J.

2014-12-01

The American Climate Prospectus (ACP), the technical analysis underlying the Risky Business project, quantitatively assessed the climate risks posed to the United States' economy in a number of economic sectors [1]. The main analysis presents projections of climate impacts with an assumption of "no adaptation". Yet, historically, when the climate imposed an economic cost upon society, adaptive responses were taken to minimise these costs. These adaptive behaviours, both autonomous and planned, can be expected to occur as climate impacts increase in the future. To understand the extent to which adaptation might decrease some of the worst impacts of climate change, we empirically estimate adaptive responses. We do this in three sectors considered in the analysis - crop yield, crime, and mortality - and estimate adaptive capacity in two steps. First, looking at changes in climate impacts through time, we identify a historical rate of adaptation. Second, spatial differences in climate impacts are then used to stratify regions into more adapted or less adapted based on climate averages. As these averages change across counties in the US, we allow each to become more adapted at the rate identified in step one. We are then able to estimate the residual damages, assuming that only the historical adaptive behaviours have taken place (fig 1). Importantly, we are unable to estimate any costs associated with these adaptations, nor are we able to estimate more novel (for example, new technological discoveries) or more disruptive (for example, migration) adaptive behaviours. However, an important insight is that historical adaptive behaviours may not be capable of reducing the worst impacts of climate change. The persistence of impacts in even the most exposed areas indicates that there are non-trivial costs associated with adaptation that will need to be met from other sources or through novel behavioural changes. References: [1] T. Houser et al. (2014), American Climate Prospectus, www.climateprospectus.org.

Adaptive Correlation Model for Visual Tracking Using Keypoints Matching and Deep Convolutional Feature.

PubMed

Li, Yuankun; Xu, Tingfa; Deng, Honggao; Shi, Guokai; Guo, Jie

2018-02-23

Although correlation filter (CF)-based visual tracking algorithms have achieved appealing results, there are still some problems to be solved. When the target object goes through long-term occlusions or scale variation, the correlation model used in existing CF-based algorithms will inevitably learn some non-target information or partial-target information. In order to avoid model contamination and enhance the adaptability of model updating, we introduce the keypoints matching strategy and adjust the model learning rate dynamically according to the matching score. Moreover, the proposed approach extracts convolutional features from a deep convolutional neural network (DCNN) to accurately estimate the position and scale of the target. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed tracker has achieved satisfactory performance in a wide range of challenging tracking scenarios.

The advantage of flexible neuronal tunings in neural network models for motor learning

PubMed Central

Marongelli, Ellisha N.; Thoroughman, Kurt A.

2013-01-01

Human motor adaptation to novel environments is often modeled by a basis function network that transforms desired movement properties into estimated forces. This network employs a layer of nodes that have fixed broad tunings that generalize across the input domain. Learning is achieved by updating the weights of these nodes in response to training experience. This conventional model is unable to account for rapid flexibility observed in human spatial generalization during motor adaptation. However, added plasticity in the widths of the basis function tunings can achieve this flexibility, and several neurophysiological experiments have revealed flexibility in tunings of sensorimotor neurons. We found a model, Locally Weighted Projection Regression (LWPR), which uniquely possesses the structure of a basis function network in which both the weights and tuning widths of the nodes are updated incrementally during adaptation. We presented this LWPR model with training functions of different spatial complexities and monitored incremental updates to receptive field widths. An inverse pattern of dependence of receptive field adaptation on experienced error became evident, underlying both a relationship between generalization and complexity, and a unique behavior in which generalization always narrows after a sudden switch in environmental complexity. These results implicate a model that is flexible in both basis function widths and weights, like LWPR, as a viable alternative model for human motor adaptation that can account for previously observed plasticity in spatial generalization. This theory can be tested by using the behaviors observed in our experiments as novel hypotheses in human studies. PMID:23888141

Computer simulation of a pilot in V/STOL aircraft control loops

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vogt, William G.; Mickle, Marlin H.; Zipf, Mark E.; Kucuk, Senol

1989-01-01

The objective was to develop a computerized adaptive pilot model for the computer model of the research aircraft, the Harrier II AV-8B V/STOL with special emphasis on propulsion control. In fact, two versions of the adaptive pilot are given. The first, simply called the Adaptive Control Model (ACM) of a pilot includes a parameter estimation algorithm for the parameters of the aircraft and an adaption scheme based on the root locus of the poles of the pilot controlled aircraft. The second, called the Optimal Control Model of the pilot (OCM), includes an adaption algorithm and an optimal control algorithm. These computer simulations were developed as a part of the ongoing research program in pilot model simulation supported by NASA Lewis from April 1, 1985 to August 30, 1986 under NASA Grant NAG 3-606 and from September 1, 1986 through November 30, 1988 under NASA Grant NAG 3-729. Once installed, these pilot models permitted the computer simulation of the pilot model to close all of the control loops normally closed by a pilot actually manipulating the control variables. The current version of this has permitted a baseline comparison of various qualitative and quantitative performance indices for propulsion control, the control loops and the work load on the pilot. Actual data for an aircraft flown by a human pilot furnished by NASA was compared to the outputs furnished by the computerized pilot and found to be favorable.

Rapid estimation of high-parameter auditory-filter shapes

PubMed Central

Shen, Yi; Sivakumar, Rajeswari; Richards, Virginia M.

2014-01-01

A Bayesian adaptive procedure, the quick-auditory-filter (qAF) procedure, was used to estimate auditory-filter shapes that were asymmetric about their peaks. In three experiments, listeners who were naive to psychoacoustic experiments detected a fixed-level, pure-tone target presented with a spectrally notched noise masker. The qAF procedure adaptively manipulated the masker spectrum level and the position of the masker notch, which was optimized for the efficient estimation of the five parameters of an auditory-filter model. Experiment I demonstrated that the qAF procedure provided a convergent estimate of the auditory-filter shape at 2 kHz within 150 to 200 trials (approximately 15 min to complete) and, for a majority of listeners, excellent test-retest reliability. In experiment II, asymmetric auditory filters were estimated for target frequencies of 1 and 4 kHz and target levels of 30 and 50 dB sound pressure level. The estimated filter shapes were generally consistent with published norms, especially at the low target level. It is known that the auditory-filter estimates are narrower for forward masking than simultaneous masking due to peripheral suppression, a result replicated in experiment III using fewer than 200 qAF trials. PMID:25324086

STEP and STEPSPL: Computer programs for aerodynamic model structure determination and parameter estimation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Batterson, J. G.

1986-01-01

The successful parametric modeling of the aerodynamics for an airplane operating at high angles of attack or sideslip is performed in two phases. First the aerodynamic model structure must be determined and second the associated aerodynamic parameters (stability and control derivatives) must be estimated for that model. The purpose of this paper is to document two versions of a stepwise regression computer program which were developed for the determination of airplane aerodynamic model structure and to provide two examples of their use on computer generated data. References are provided for the application of the programs to real flight data. The two computer programs that are the subject of this report, STEP and STEPSPL, are written in FORTRAN IV (ANSI l966) compatible with a CDC FTN4 compiler. Both programs are adaptations of a standard forward stepwise regression algorithm. The purpose of the adaptation is to facilitate the selection of a adequate mathematical model of the aerodynamic force and moment coefficients of an airplane from flight test data. The major difference between STEP and STEPSPL is in the basis for the model. The basis for the model in STEP is the standard polynomial Taylor's series expansion of the aerodynamic function about some steady-state trim condition. Program STEPSPL utilizes a set of spline basis functions.

Codon Usage Selection Can Bias Estimation of the Fraction of Adaptive Amino Acid Fixations.

PubMed

Matsumoto, Tomotaka; John, Anoop; Baeza-Centurion, Pablo; Li, Boyang; Akashi, Hiroshi

2016-06-01

A growing number of molecular evolutionary studies are estimating the proportion of adaptive amino acid substitutions (α) from comparisons of ratios of polymorphic and fixed DNA mutations. Here, we examine how violations of two of the model assumptions, neutral evolution of synonymous mutations and stationary base composition, affect α estimation. We simulated the evolution of coding sequences assuming weak selection on synonymous codon usage bias and neutral protein evolution, α = 0. We show that weak selection on synonymous mutations can give polymorphism/divergence ratios that yield α-hat (estimated α) considerably larger than its true value. Nonstationary evolution (changes in population size, selection, or mutation) can exacerbate such biases or, in some scenarios, give biases in the opposite direction, α-hat < α. These results demonstrate that two factors that appear to be prevalent among taxa, weak selection on synonymous mutations and non-steady-state nucleotide composition, should be considered when estimating α. Estimates of the proportion of adaptive amino acid fixations from large-scale analyses of Drosophila melanogaster polymorphism and divergence data are positively correlated with codon usage bias. Such patterns are consistent with α-hat inflation from weak selection on synonymous mutations and/or mutational changes within the examined gene trees. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

An adaptive finite element method for the inequality-constrained Reynolds equation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gustafsson, Tom; Rajagopal, Kumbakonam R.; Stenberg, Rolf; Videman, Juha

2018-07-01

We present a stabilized finite element method for the numerical solution of cavitation in lubrication, modeled as an inequality-constrained Reynolds equation. The cavitation model is written as a variable coefficient saddle-point problem and approximated by a residual-based stabilized method. Based on our recent results on the classical obstacle problem, we present optimal a priori estimates and derive novel a posteriori error estimators. The method is implemented as a Nitsche-type finite element technique and shown in numerical computations to be superior to the usually applied penalty methods.

Parallel goal-oriented adaptive finite element modeling for 3D electromagnetic exploration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Y.; Key, K.; Ovall, J.; Holst, M.

2014-12-01

We present a parallel goal-oriented adaptive finite element method for accurate and efficient electromagnetic (EM) modeling of complex 3D structures. An unstructured tetrahedral mesh allows this approach to accommodate arbitrarily complex 3D conductivity variations and a priori known boundaries. The total electric field is approximated by the lowest order linear curl-conforming shape functions and the discretized finite element equations are solved by a sparse LU factorization. Accuracy of the finite element solution is achieved through adaptive mesh refinement that is performed iteratively until the solution converges to the desired accuracy tolerance. Refinement is guided by a goal-oriented error estimator that uses a dual-weighted residual method to optimize the mesh for accurate EM responses at the locations of the EM receivers. As a result, the mesh refinement is highly efficient since it only targets the elements where the inaccuracy of the solution corrupts the response at the possibly distant locations of the EM receivers. We compare the accuracy and efficiency of two approaches for estimating the primary residual error required at the core of this method: one uses local element and inter-element residuals and the other relies on solving a global residual system using a hierarchical basis. For computational efficiency our method follows the Bank-Holst algorithm for parallelization, where solutions are computed in subdomains of the original model. To resolve the load-balancing problem, this approach applies a spectral bisection method to divide the entire model into subdomains that have approximately equal error and the same number of receivers. The finite element solutions are then computed in parallel with each subdomain carrying out goal-oriented adaptive mesh refinement independently. We validate the newly developed algorithm by comparison with controlled-source EM solutions for 1D layered models and with 2D results from our earlier 2D goal oriented adaptive refinement code named MARE2DEM. We demonstrate the performance and parallel scaling of this algorithm on a medium-scale computing cluster with a marine controlled-source EM example that includes a 3D array of receivers located over a 3D model that includes significant seafloor bathymetry variations and a heterogeneous subsurface.

Analyzing extreme sea levels for broad-scale impact and adaptation studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wahl, T.; Haigh, I. D.; Nicholls, R. J.; Arns, A.; Dangendorf, S.; Hinkel, J.; Slangen, A.

2017-12-01

Coastal impact and adaptation assessments require detailed knowledge on extreme sea levels (ESL), because increasing damage due to extreme events is one of the major consequences of sea-level rise (SLR) and climate change. Over the last few decades, substantial research efforts have been directed towards improved understanding of past and future SLR; different scenarios were developed with process-based or semi-empirical models and used for coastal impact studies at various temporal and spatial scales to guide coastal management and adaptation efforts. Uncertainties in future SLR are typically accounted for by analyzing the impacts associated with a range of scenarios and model ensembles. ESL distributions are then displaced vertically according to the SLR scenarios under the inherent assumption that we have perfect knowledge on the statistics of extremes. However, there is still a limited understanding of present-day ESL which is largely ignored in most impact and adaptation analyses. The two key uncertainties stem from: (1) numerical models that are used to generate long time series of storm surge water levels, and (2) statistical models used for determining present-day ESL exceedance probabilities. There is no universally accepted approach to obtain such values for broad-scale flood risk assessments and while substantial research has explored SLR uncertainties, we quantify, for the first time globally, key uncertainties in ESL estimates. We find that contemporary ESL uncertainties exceed those from SLR projections and, assuming that we meet the Paris agreement, the projected SLR itself by the end of the century. Our results highlight the necessity to further improve our understanding of uncertainties in ESL estimates through (1) continued improvement of numerical and statistical models to simulate and analyze coastal water levels and (2) exploit the rich observational database and continue data archeology to obtain longer time series and remove model bias. Finally, ESL uncertainties need to be integrated with SLR uncertainties. Otherwise, important improvements in providing more robust SLR projections are of less benefit for broad-scale impact and adaptation studies and decision processes.

Real-Time Stability and Control Derivative Extraction From F-15 Flight Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Mark S.; Moes, Timothy R.; Morelli, Eugene A.

2003-01-01

A real-time, frequency-domain, equation-error parameter identification (PID) technique was used to estimate stability and control derivatives from flight data. This technique is being studied to support adaptive control system concepts currently being developed by NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration), academia, and industry. This report describes the basic real-time algorithm used for this study and implementation issues for onboard usage as part of an indirect-adaptive control system. A confidence measures system for automated evaluation of PID results is discussed. Results calculated using flight data from a modified F-15 aircraft are presented. Test maneuvers included pilot input doublets and automated inputs at several flight conditions. Estimated derivatives are compared to aerodynamic model predictions. Data indicate that the real-time PID used for this study performs well enough to be used for onboard parameter estimation. For suitable test inputs, the parameter estimates converged rapidly to sufficient levels of accuracy. The devised confidence measures used were moderately successful.

Robust face alignment under occlusion via regional predictive power estimation.

PubMed

Heng Yang; Xuming He; Xuhui Jia; Patras, Ioannis

2015-08-01

Face alignment has been well studied in recent years, however, when a face alignment model is applied on facial images with heavy partial occlusion, the performance deteriorates significantly. In this paper, instead of training an occlusion-aware model with visibility annotation, we address this issue via a model adaptation scheme that uses the result of a local regression forest (RF) voting method. In the proposed scheme, the consistency of the votes of the local RF in each of several oversegmented regions is used to determine the reliability of predicting the location of the facial landmarks. The latter is what we call regional predictive power (RPP). Subsequently, we adapt a holistic voting method (cascaded pose regression based on random ferns) by putting weights on the votes of each fern according to the RPP of the regions used in the fern tests. The proposed method shows superior performance over existing face alignment models in the most challenging data sets (COFW and 300-W). Moreover, it can also estimate with high accuracy (72.4% overlap ratio) which image areas belong to the face or nonface objects, on the heavily occluded images of the COFW data set, without explicit occlusion modeling.

Adaptive Filtering Using Recurrent Neural Networks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parlos, Alexander G.; Menon, Sunil K.; Atiya, Amir F.

2005-01-01

A method for adaptive (or, optionally, nonadaptive) filtering has been developed for estimating the states of complex process systems (e.g., chemical plants, factories, or manufacturing processes at some level of abstraction) from time series of measurements of system inputs and outputs. The method is based partly on the fundamental principles of the Kalman filter and partly on the use of recurrent neural networks. The standard Kalman filter involves an assumption of linearity of the mathematical model used to describe a process system. The extended Kalman filter accommodates a nonlinear process model but still requires linearization about the state estimate. Both the standard and extended Kalman filters involve the often unrealistic assumption that process and measurement noise are zero-mean, Gaussian, and white. In contrast, the present method does not involve any assumptions of linearity of process models or of the nature of process noise; on the contrary, few (if any) assumptions are made about process models, noise models, or the parameters of such models. In this regard, the method can be characterized as one of nonlinear, nonparametric filtering. The method exploits the unique ability of neural networks to approximate nonlinear functions. In a given case, the process model is limited mainly by limitations of the approximation ability of the neural networks chosen for that case. Moreover, despite the lack of assumptions regarding process noise, the method yields minimum- variance filters. In that they do not require statistical models of noise, the neural- network-based state filters of this method are comparable to conventional nonlinear least-squares estimators.

Colored noise and a stochastic fractional model for correlated inputs and adaptation in neuronal firing.

PubMed

Pirozzi, Enrica

2018-04-01

High variability in the neuronal response to stimulations and the adaptation phenomenon cannot be explained by the standard stochastic leaky integrate-and-fire model. The main reason is that the uncorrelated inputs involved in the model are not realistic. There exists some form of dependency between the inputs, and it can be interpreted as memory effects. In order to include these physiological features in the standard model, we reconsider it with time-dependent coefficients and correlated inputs. Due to its hard mathematical tractability, we perform simulations of it for a wide investigation of its output. A Gauss-Markov process is constructed for approximating its non-Markovian dynamics. The first passage time probability density of such a process can be numerically evaluated, and it can be used to fit the histograms of simulated firing times. Some estimates of the moments of firing times are also provided. The effect of the correlation time of the inputs on firing densities and on firing rates is shown. An exponential probability density of the first firing time is estimated for low values of input current and high values of correlation time. For comparison, a simulation-based investigation is also carried out for a fractional stochastic model that allows to preserve the memory of the time evolution of the neuronal membrane potential. In this case, the memory parameter that affects the firing activity is the fractional derivative order. In both models an adaptation level of spike frequency is attained, even if along different modalities. Comparisons and discussion of the obtained results are provided.

An adaptive learning control system for large flexible structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thau, F. E.

1985-01-01

The objective of the research has been to study the design of adaptive/learning control systems for the control of large flexible structures. In the first activity an adaptive/learning control methodology for flexible space structures was investigated. The approach was based on using a modal model of the flexible structure dynamics and an output-error identification scheme to identify modal parameters. In the second activity, a least-squares identification scheme was proposed for estimating both modal parameters and modal-to-actuator and modal-to-sensor shape functions. The technique was applied to experimental data obtained from the NASA Langley beam experiment. In the third activity, a separable nonlinear least-squares approach was developed for estimating the number of excited modes, shape functions, modal parameters, and modal amplitude and velocity time functions for a flexible structure. In the final research activity, a dual-adaptive control strategy was developed for regulating the modal dynamics and identifying modal parameters of a flexible structure. A min-max approach was used for finding an input to provide modal parameter identification while not exceeding reasonable bounds on modal displacement.

A control-theory model for human decision-making

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Levison, W. H.; Tanner, R. B.

1971-01-01

A model for human decision making is an adaptation of an optimal control model for pilot/vehicle systems. The models for decision and control both contain concepts of time delay, observation noise, optimal prediction, and optimal estimation. The decision making model was intended for situations in which the human bases his decision on his estimate of the state of a linear plant. Experiments are described for the following task situations: (a) single decision tasks, (b) two-decision tasks, and (c) simultaneous manual control and decision making. Using fixed values for model parameters, single-task and two-task decision performance can be predicted to within an accuracy of 10 percent. Agreement is less good for the simultaneous decision and control situation.

Farm Level Adaptation to Climate Change: The Case of Farmer's in the Ethiopian Highlands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gebrehiwot, Tagel; van der Veen, Anne

2013-07-01

In Ethiopia, climate change and associated risks are expected to have serious consequences for agriculture and food security. This in turn will seriously impact on the welfare of the people, particularly the rural farmers whose main livelihood depends on rain-fed agriculture. The level of impacts will mainly depend on the awareness and the level of adaptation in response to the changing climate. It is thus important to understand the role of the different factors that influence farmers' adaptation to ensure the development of appropriate policy measures and the design of successful development projects. This study examines farmers' perception of change in climatic attributes and the factors that influence farmers' choice of adaptation measures to climate change and variability. The estimated results from the climate change adaptation models indicate that level of education, age and wealth of the head of the household; access to credit and agricultural services; information on climate, and temperature all influence farmers' choices of adaptation. Moreover, lack of information on adaptation measures and lack of finance are seen as the main factors inhibiting adaptation to climate change. These conclusions were obtained with a Multinomial logit model, employing the results from a survey of 400 smallholder farmers in three districts in Tigray, northern Ethiopian.

Design for a region-wide adaptive search for the ivorybilled woodpecker with the objective of estimating occupancy and related parameters

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cooper, R.J.; Mordecai, Rua S.; Mattsson, B.G.; Conroy, M.J.; Pacifici, K.; Peterson, J.T.; Moore, C.T.

2008-01-01

We describe a survey design and field protocol for the Ivory-billed Woodpecker (Campephilus principalis) search effort that will: (1) allow estimation of occupancy, use, and detection probability for habitats at two spatial scales within the bird?s former range, (2) assess relationships between occupancy, use, and habitat characteristics at those scales, (3) eventually allow the development of a population viability model that depends on patch occupancy instead of difficult-to-measure demographic parameters, and (4) be adaptive, allowing newly collected information to update the above models and search locations. The approach features random selection of patches to be searched from a sampling frame stratified and weighted by patch quality, and requires multiple visits per patch. It is adaptive within a season in that increased search activity is allowed in and around locations of strong visual and/or aural evidence, and adaptive among seasons in that habitat associations allow modification of stratum weights. This statistically rigorous approach is an improvement over simply visiting the ?best? habitat in an ad hoc fashion because we can learn from prior effort and modify the search accordingly. Results from the 2006-07 search season indicate weak relationships between occupancy and habitat (although we suggest modifications of habitat measurement protocols), and a very low detection probability, suggesting more visits per patch are required. Sample size requirements will be discussed.

Fully implicit moving mesh adaptive algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Serazio, C.; Chacon, L.; Lapenta, G.

2006-10-01

In many problems of interest, the numerical modeler is faced with the challenge of dealing with multiple time and length scales. The former is best dealt with with fully implicit methods, which are able to step over fast frequencies to resolve the dynamical time scale of interest. The latter requires grid adaptivity for efficiency. Moving-mesh grid adaptive methods are attractive because they can be designed to minimize the numerical error for a given resolution. However, the required grid governing equations are typically very nonlinear and stiff, and of considerably difficult numerical treatment. Not surprisingly, fully coupled, implicit approaches where the grid and the physics equations are solved simultaneously are rare in the literature, and circumscribed to 1D geometries. In this study, we present a fully implicit algorithm for moving mesh methods that is feasible for multidimensional geometries. Crucial elements are the development of an effective multilevel treatment of the grid equation, and a robust, rigorous error estimator. For the latter, we explore the effectiveness of a coarse grid correction error estimator, which faithfully reproduces spatial truncation errors for conservative equations. We will show that the moving mesh approach is competitive vs. uniform grids both in accuracy (due to adaptivity) and efficiency. Results for a variety of models 1D and 2D geometries will be presented. L. Chac'on, G. Lapenta, J. Comput. Phys., 212 (2), 703 (2006) G. Lapenta, L. Chac'on, J. Comput. Phys., accepted (2006)

Managing uncertainty in climate-driven ecological models to inform adaptation to climate change

Treesearch

Jeremy S. Littell; Donald McKenzie; Becky K. Kerns; Samuel Cushman; Charles G. Shaw

2011-01-01

The impacts of climate change on forest ecosystems are likely to require changes in forest planning and natural resource management. Changes in tree growth, disturbance extent and intensity, and eventually species distributions are expected. In natural resource management and planning, ecosystem models are typically used to provide a "best estimate" about how...

Adaptive Statistical Language Modeling; A Maximum Entropy Approach

DTIC Science & Technology

1994-04-19

models exploit the immediate past only. To extract information from further back in the document’s history , I use trigger pairs as the basic information...9 2.2 Context-Free Estimation (Unigram) ...... .................... 12 2.3 Short-Term History (Conventional N-gram...12 2.4 Short-term Class History (Class-Based N-gram) ................... 14 2.5 Intermediate Distance ........ ........................... 16

Towards More Comprehensive Projections of Urban Heat-Related Mortality: Estimates for New York City Under Multiple Population, Adaptation, and Climate Scenarios

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Petkova, Elisaveta P.; Vink, Jan K.; Horton, Radley M.; Gasparrini, Antonio; Bader, Daniel A.; Francis, Joe D.; Kinney, Patrick L.

2016-01-01

High temperatures have substantial impacts on mortality and, with growing concerns about climate change, numerous studies have developed projections of future heat-related deaths around the world. Projections of temperature-related mortality are often limited by insufficient information necessary to formulate hypotheses about population sensitivity to high temperatures and future demographics. This study has derived projections of temperature-related mortality in New York City by taking into account future patterns of adaptation or demographic change, both of which can have profound influences on future health burdens. We adopt a novel approach to modeling heat adaptation by incorporating an analysis of the observed population response to heat in New York City over the course of eight decades. This approach projects heat-related mortality until the end of the 21st century based on observed trends in adaptation over a substantial portion of the 20th century. In addition, we incorporate a range of new scenarios for population change until the end of the 21st century. We then estimate future heat-related deaths in New York City by combining the changing temperature-mortality relationship and population scenarios with downscaled temperature projections from the 33 global climate models (GCMs) and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs).The median number of projected annual heat-related deaths across the 33 GCMs varied greatly by RCP and adaptation and population change scenario, ranging from 167 to 3331 in the 2080s compared to 638 heat-related deaths annually between 2000 and 2006.These findings provide a more complete picture of the range of potential future heat-related mortality risks across the 21st century in New York, and highlight the importance of both demographic change and adaptation responses in modifying future risks.

A review: Development of a microdose model for analysis of adaptive response and bystander dose response behavior.

PubMed

Leonard, Bobby E

2008-02-27

Prior work has provided incremental phases to a microdosimetry modeling program to describe the dose response behavior of the radio-protective adaptive response effect. We have here consolidated these prior works (Leonard 2000, 2005, 2007a, 2007b, 2007c) to provide a composite, comprehensive Microdose Model that is also herein modified to include the bystander effect. The nomenclature for the model is also standardized for the benefit of the experimental cellular radio-biologist. It extends the prior work to explicitly encompass separately the analysis of experimental data that is 1.) only dose dependent and reflecting only adaptive response radio-protection, 2.) both dose and dose-rate dependent data and reflecting only adaptive response radio-protection for spontaneous and challenge dose damage, 3.) only dose dependent data and reflecting both bystander deleterious damage and adaptive response radio-protection (AR-BE model). The Appendix cites the various applications of the model. Here we have used the Microdose Model to analyze the, much more human risk significant, Elmore et al (2006) data for the dose and dose rate influence on the adaptive response radio-protective behavior of HeLa x Skin cells for naturally occurring, spontaneous chromosome damage from a Brachytherapy type (125)I photon radiation source. We have also applied the AR-BE Microdose Model to the Chromosome inversion data of Hooker et al (2004) reflecting both low LET bystander and adaptive response effects. The micro-beam facility data of Miller et al (1999), Nagasawa and Little (1999) and Zhou et al (2003) is also examined. For the Zhou et al (2003) data, we use the AR-BE model to estimate the threshold for adaptive response reduction of the bystander effect. The mammogram and diagnostic X-ray induction of AR and protective BE are observed. We show that bystander damage is reduced in the similar manner as spontaneous and challenge dose damage as shown by the Azzam et al (1996) data. We cite primary unresolved questions regarding adaptive response behavior and bystander behavior. The five features of major significance provided by the Microdose Model so far are 1. Single Specific Energy Hits initiate Adaptive Response. 2. Mammogram and diagnostic X-rays induce a protective Bystander Effect as well as Adaptive Response radio-protection. 3. For mammogram X-rays the Adaptive Response protection is retained at high primer dose levels. 4. The dose range of the AR protection depends on the value of the Specific Energy per Hit, 1 >. 5. Alpha particle induced deleterious Bystander damage is modulated by low LET radiation.

Adaptive evolutionary walks require neutral intermediates in RNA fitness landscapes.

PubMed

Rendel, Mark D

2011-01-01

In RNA fitness landscapes with interconnected networks of neutral mutations, neutral precursor mutations can play an important role in facilitating the accessibility of epistatic adaptive mutant combinations. I use an exhaustively surveyed fitness landscape model based on short sequence RNA genotypes (and their secondary structure phenotypes) to calculate the minimum rate at which mutants initially appearing as neutral are incorporated into an adaptive evolutionary walk. I show first, that incorporating neutral mutations significantly increases the number of point mutations in a given evolutionary walk when compared to estimates from previous adaptive walk models. Second, that incorporating neutral mutants into such a walk significantly increases the final fitness encountered on that walk - indeed evolutionary walks including neutral steps often reach the global optimum in this model. Third, and perhaps most importantly, evolutionary paths of this kind are often extremely winding in their nature and have the potential to undergo multiple mutations at a given sequence position within a single walk; the potential of these winding paths to mislead phylogenetic reconstruction is briefly considered. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Parameter Estimation in Atmospheric Data Sets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wenig, Mark; Colarco, Peter

2004-01-01

In this study the structure tensor technique is used to estimate dynamical parameters in atmospheric data sets. The structure tensor is a common tool for estimating motion in image sequences. This technique can be extended to estimate other dynamical parameters such as diffusion constants or exponential decay rates. A general mathematical framework was developed for the direct estimation of the physical parameters that govern the underlying processes from image sequences. This estimation technique can be adapted to the specific physical problem under investigation, so it can be used in a variety of applications in trace gas, aerosol, and cloud remote sensing. As a test scenario this technique will be applied to modeled dust data. In this case vertically integrated dust concentrations were used to derive wind information. Those results can be compared to the wind vector fields which served as input to the model. Based on this analysis, a method to compute atmospheric data parameter fields will be presented. .

Signal-to-noise ratio estimation using adaptive tuning on the piecewise cubic Hermite interpolation model for images.

PubMed

Sim, K S; Yeap, Z X; Tso, C P

2016-11-01

An improvement to the existing technique of quantifying signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of scanning electron microscope (SEM) images using piecewise cubic Hermite interpolation (PCHIP) technique is proposed. The new technique uses an adaptive tuning onto the PCHIP, and is thus named as ATPCHIP. To test its accuracy, 70 images are corrupted with noise and their autocorrelation functions are then plotted. The ATPCHIP technique is applied to estimate the uncorrupted noise-free zero offset point from a corrupted image. Three existing methods, the nearest neighborhood, first order interpolation and original PCHIP, are used to compare with the performance of the proposed ATPCHIP method, with respect to their calculated SNR values. Results show that ATPCHIP is an accurate and reliable method to estimate SNR values from SEM images. SCANNING 38:502-514, 2016. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Adaptive UAV Attitude Estimation Employing Unscented Kalman Filter, FOAM and Low-Cost MEMS Sensors

PubMed Central

de Marina, Héctor García; Espinosa, Felipe; Santos, Carlos

2012-01-01

Navigation employing low cost MicroElectroMechanical Systems (MEMS) sensors in Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) is an uprising challenge. One important part of this navigation is the right estimation of the attitude angles. Most of the existent algorithms handle the sensor readings in a fixed way, leading to large errors in different mission stages like take-off aerobatic maneuvers. This paper presents an adaptive method to estimate these angles using off-the-shelf components. This paper introduces an Attitude Heading Reference System (AHRS) based on the Unscented Kalman Filter (UKF) using the Fast Optimal Attitude Matrix (FOAM) algorithm as the observation model. The performance of the method is assessed through simulations. Moreover, field experiments are presented using a real fixed-wing UAV. The proposed low cost solution, implemented in a microcontroller, shows a satisfactory real time performance. PMID:23012559

MIMICKING COUNTERFACTUAL OUTCOMES TO ESTIMATE CAUSAL EFFECTS.

PubMed

Lok, Judith J

2017-04-01

In observational studies, treatment may be adapted to covariates at several times without a fixed protocol, in continuous time. Treatment influences covariates, which influence treatment, which influences covariates, and so on. Then even time-dependent Cox-models cannot be used to estimate the net treatment effect. Structural nested models have been applied in this setting. Structural nested models are based on counterfactuals: the outcome a person would have had had treatment been withheld after a certain time. Previous work on continuous-time structural nested models assumes that counterfactuals depend deterministically on observed data, while conjecturing that this assumption can be relaxed. This article proves that one can mimic counterfactuals by constructing random variables, solutions to a differential equation, that have the same distribution as the counterfactuals, even given past observed data. These "mimicking" variables can be used to estimate the parameters of structural nested models without assuming the treatment effect to be deterministic.

Predicting coral bleaching hotspots: the role of regional variability in thermal stress and potential adaptation rates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teneva, Lida; Karnauskas, Mandy; Logan, Cheryl A.; Bianucci, Laura; Currie, Jock C.; Kleypas, Joan A.

2012-03-01

Sea surface temperature fields (1870-2100) forced by CO2-induced climate change under the IPCC SRES A1B CO2 scenario, from three World Climate Research Programme Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (WCRP CMIP3) models (CCSM3, CSIRO MK 3.5, and GFDL CM 2.1), were used to examine how coral sensitivity to thermal stress and rates of adaption affect global projections of coral-reef bleaching. The focus of this study was two-fold, to: (1) assess how the impact of Degree-Heating-Month (DHM) thermal stress threshold choice affects potential bleaching predictions and (2) examine the effect of hypothetical adaptation rates of corals to rising temperature. DHM values were estimated using a conventional threshold of 1°C and a variability-based threshold of 2σ above the climatological maximum Coral adaptation rates were simulated as a function of historical 100-year exposure to maximum annual SSTs with a dynamic rather than static climatological maximum based on the previous 100 years, for a given reef cell. Within CCSM3 simulations, the 1°C threshold predicted later onset of mild bleaching every 5 years for the fraction of reef grid cells where 1°C > 2σ of the climatology time series of annual SST maxima (1961-1990). Alternatively, DHM values using both thresholds, with CSIRO MK 3.5 and GFDL CM 2.1 SSTs, did not produce drastically different onset timing for bleaching every 5 years. Across models, DHMs based on 1°C thermal stress threshold show the most threatened reefs by 2100 could be in the Central and Western Equatorial Pacific, whereas use of the variability-based threshold for DHMs yields the Coral Triangle and parts of Micronesia and Melanesia as bleaching hotspots. Simulations that allow corals to adapt to increases in maximum SST drastically reduce the rates of bleaching. These findings highlight the importance of considering the thermal stress threshold in DHM estimates as well as potential adaptation models in future coral bleaching projections.

A heuristic mathematical model for the dynamics of sensory conflict and motion sickness

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oman, C. M.

1982-01-01

By consideration of the information processing task faced by the central nervous system in estimating body spatial orientation and in controlling active body movement using an internal model referenced control strategy, a mathematical model for sensory conflict generation is developed. The model postulates a major dynamic functional role for sensory conflict signals in movement control, as well as in sensory-motor adaptation. It accounts for the role of active movement in creating motion sickness symptoms in some experimental circumstance, and in alleviating them in others. The relationship between motion sickness produced by sensory rearrangement and that resulting from external motion disturbances is explicitly defined. A nonlinear conflict averaging model is proposed which describes dynamic aspects of experimentally observed subjective discomfort sensation, and suggests resulting behaviours. The model admits several possibilities for adaptive mechanisms which do not involve internal model updating. Further systematic efforts to experimentally refine and validate the model are indicated.

A Novel approach to monitor chlorophyll-a concentration using an adaptive model from MODIS data at 250 metres spatial resolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

El Alem, A.; Chokmani, K.; Laurion, I.; El Adlouni, S.

2013-12-01

Occurrence and extent of Harmful Algal Bloom (HAB) has increased in inland water bodies around the world. The appearance of these blooms reflects the advanced state of eutrophication of several aquatic systems caused by urban, agricultural, and industrial development. Algal blooms, especially those cyanobacterial origins, are capable to produce and release toxins, threatening human and animal health, quality of drinking water, and recreational water bodies. Conventional monitoring networks, based on infrequent sampling in a few fixed monitoring stations, cannot provide the information needed as HABs are spatially and temporally heterogeneous. Remote sensing represents an interesting alternative to provide the required spatial and temporal coverage. The usefulness of air-borne and satellite remote sensing data to detect HABs was demonstrated since three decades ago, and since several empirical and semi-empirical models, using satellite imagery, were developed to estimate chlorophyll-a concentration [Chl-a] as a proxy to detect bloom proliferations. However, most of those models presented several weaknesses that are generally linked to the range of [Chl-a] to be estimated. Indeed, models originally calibrated for high [Chl-a] fail to estimate low concentrations and vice versa. In this study, an adaptive model to estimate [Chl-a], spread over a wide range of concentrations, is developed for optically complex inland water bodies based on combination of water spectral response classification and three developed semi-empirical algorithms using a multivariate regression. Three distinct water types (low, medium, and high [Chl-a]) are first identified using the Classification and Regression Tree (CART) method performed on remote sensing reflectance over a dataset of 44 [Chl-a] samples collected from Lakes over Quebec province. Based on the water classification, a specific multivariate model to each water type is developed using the same dataset and the MODIS data at 250-m spatial resolution. By pre-clustering inland water bodies, the results were very interesting as the determination coefficients as well as the relative RMSE of the cross-validation were of 0.99, 0.98 and 0.95 and of 0.5%, 8% and 17% for high, medium, and low [Chl-a], respectively. On the other hand, the adaptive model reached a global success rate of 92% using an independent, semi-qualitative, [Chl-a] samples collected over more than twenty inland water bodies for the years 2009 and 2010 over the Quebec province.

HIGH DIMENSIONAL COVARIANCE MATRIX ESTIMATION IN APPROXIMATE FACTOR MODELS

PubMed Central

Fan, Jianqing; Liao, Yuan; Mincheva, Martina

2012-01-01

The variance covariance matrix plays a central role in the inferential theories of high dimensional factor models in finance and economics. Popular regularization methods of directly exploiting sparsity are not directly applicable to many financial problems. Classical methods of estimating the covariance matrices are based on the strict factor models, assuming independent idiosyncratic components. This assumption, however, is restrictive in practical applications. By assuming sparse error covariance matrix, we allow the presence of the cross-sectional correlation even after taking out common factors, and it enables us to combine the merits of both methods. We estimate the sparse covariance using the adaptive thresholding technique as in Cai and Liu (2011), taking into account the fact that direct observations of the idiosyncratic components are unavailable. The impact of high dimensionality on the covariance matrix estimation based on the factor structure is then studied. PMID:22661790

River suspended sediment estimation by climatic variables implication: Comparative study among soft computing techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kisi, Ozgur; Shiri, Jalal

2012-06-01

Estimating sediment volume carried by a river is an important issue in water resources engineering. This paper compares the accuracy of three different soft computing methods, Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), and Gene Expression Programming (GEP), in estimating daily suspended sediment concentration on rivers by using hydro-meteorological data. The daily rainfall, streamflow and suspended sediment concentration data from Eel River near Dos Rios, at California, USA are used as a case study. The comparison results indicate that the GEP model performs better than the other models in daily suspended sediment concentration estimation for the particular data sets used in this study. Levenberg-Marquardt, conjugate gradient and gradient descent training algorithms were used for the ANN models. Out of three algorithms, the Conjugate gradient algorithm was found to be better than the others.

Adaptive approach for on-board impedance parameters and voltage estimation of lithium-ion batteries in electric vehicles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farmann, Alexander; Waag, Wladislaw; Sauer, Dirk Uwe

2015-12-01

Robust algorithms using reduced order equivalent circuit model (ECM) for an accurate and reliable estimation of battery states in various applications become more popular. In this study, a novel adaptive, self-learning heuristic algorithm for on-board impedance parameters and voltage estimation of lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) in electric vehicles is introduced. The presented approach is verified using LIBs with different composition of chemistries (NMC/C, NMC/LTO, LFP/C) at different aging states. An impedance-based reduced order ECM incorporating ohmic resistance and a combination of a constant phase element and a resistance (so-called ZARC-element) is employed. Existing algorithms in vehicles are much more limited in the complexity of the ECMs. The algorithm is validated using seven day real vehicle data with high temperature variation including very low temperatures (from -20 °C to +30 °C) at different Depth-of-Discharges (DoDs). Two possibilities to approximate both ZARC-elements with finite number of RC-elements on-board are shown and the results of the voltage estimation are compared. Moreover, the current dependence of the charge-transfer resistance is considered by employing Butler-Volmer equation. Achieved results indicate that both models yield almost the same grade of accuracy.

The NASA F-15 Intelligent Flight Control Systems: Generation II

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Buschbacher, Mark; Bosworth, John

2006-01-01

The Second Generation (Gen II) control system for the F-15 Intelligent Flight Control System (IFCS) program implements direct adaptive neural networks to demonstrate robust tolerance to faults and failures. The direct adaptive tracking controller integrates learning neural networks (NNs) with a dynamic inversion control law. The term direct adaptive is used because the error between the reference model and the aircraft response is being compensated or directly adapted to minimize error without regard to knowing the cause of the error. No parameter estimation is needed for this direct adaptive control system. In the Gen II design, the feedback errors are regulated with a proportional-plus-integral (PI) compensator. This basic compensator is augmented with an online NN that changes the system gains via an error-based adaptation law to improve aircraft performance at all times, including normal flight, system failures, mispredicted behavior, or changes in behavior resulting from damage.

A novel Gaussian process regression model for state-of-health estimation of lithium-ion battery using charging curve

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Duo; Zhang, Xu; Pan, Rui; Wang, Yujie; Chen, Zonghai

2018-04-01

The state-of-health (SOH) estimation is always a crucial issue for lithium-ion batteries. In order to provide an accurate and reliable SOH estimation, a novel Gaussian process regression (GPR) model based on charging curve is proposed in this paper. Different from other researches where SOH is commonly estimated by cycle life, in this work four specific parameters extracted from charging curves are used as inputs of the GPR model instead of cycle numbers. These parameters can reflect the battery aging phenomenon from different angles. The grey relational analysis method is applied to analyze the relational grade between selected features and SOH. On the other hand, some adjustments are made in the proposed GPR model. Covariance function design and the similarity measurement of input variables are modified so as to improve the SOH estimate accuracy and adapt to the case of multidimensional input. Several aging data from NASA data repository are used for demonstrating the estimation effect by the proposed method. Results show that the proposed method has high SOH estimation accuracy. Besides, a battery with dynamic discharging profile is used to verify the robustness and reliability of this method.

Robust, Adaptive Functional Regression in Functional Mixed Model Framework.

PubMed

Zhu, Hongxiao; Brown, Philip J; Morris, Jeffrey S

2011-09-01

Functional data are increasingly encountered in scientific studies, and their high dimensionality and complexity lead to many analytical challenges. Various methods for functional data analysis have been developed, including functional response regression methods that involve regression of a functional response on univariate/multivariate predictors with nonparametrically represented functional coefficients. In existing methods, however, the functional regression can be sensitive to outlying curves and outlying regions of curves, so is not robust. In this paper, we introduce a new Bayesian method, robust functional mixed models (R-FMM), for performing robust functional regression within the general functional mixed model framework, which includes multiple continuous or categorical predictors and random effect functions accommodating potential between-function correlation induced by the experimental design. The underlying model involves a hierarchical scale mixture model for the fixed effects, random effect and residual error functions. These modeling assumptions across curves result in robust nonparametric estimators of the fixed and random effect functions which down-weight outlying curves and regions of curves, and produce statistics that can be used to flag global and local outliers. These assumptions also lead to distributions across wavelet coefficients that have outstanding sparsity and adaptive shrinkage properties, with great flexibility for the data to determine the sparsity and the heaviness of the tails. Together with the down-weighting of outliers, these within-curve properties lead to fixed and random effect function estimates that appear in our simulations to be remarkably adaptive in their ability to remove spurious features yet retain true features of the functions. We have developed general code to implement this fully Bayesian method that is automatic, requiring the user to only provide the functional data and design matrices. It is efficient enough to handle large data sets, and yields posterior samples of all model parameters that can be used to perform desired Bayesian estimation and inference. Although we present details for a specific implementation of the R-FMM using specific distributional choices in the hierarchical model, 1D functions, and wavelet transforms, the method can be applied more generally using other heavy-tailed distributions, higher dimensional functions (e.g. images), and using other invertible transformations as alternatives to wavelets.

Robust, Adaptive Functional Regression in Functional Mixed Model Framework

PubMed Central

Zhu, Hongxiao; Brown, Philip J.; Morris, Jeffrey S.

2012-01-01

Functional data are increasingly encountered in scientific studies, and their high dimensionality and complexity lead to many analytical challenges. Various methods for functional data analysis have been developed, including functional response regression methods that involve regression of a functional response on univariate/multivariate predictors with nonparametrically represented functional coefficients. In existing methods, however, the functional regression can be sensitive to outlying curves and outlying regions of curves, so is not robust. In this paper, we introduce a new Bayesian method, robust functional mixed models (R-FMM), for performing robust functional regression within the general functional mixed model framework, which includes multiple continuous or categorical predictors and random effect functions accommodating potential between-function correlation induced by the experimental design. The underlying model involves a hierarchical scale mixture model for the fixed effects, random effect and residual error functions. These modeling assumptions across curves result in robust nonparametric estimators of the fixed and random effect functions which down-weight outlying curves and regions of curves, and produce statistics that can be used to flag global and local outliers. These assumptions also lead to distributions across wavelet coefficients that have outstanding sparsity and adaptive shrinkage properties, with great flexibility for the data to determine the sparsity and the heaviness of the tails. Together with the down-weighting of outliers, these within-curve properties lead to fixed and random effect function estimates that appear in our simulations to be remarkably adaptive in their ability to remove spurious features yet retain true features of the functions. We have developed general code to implement this fully Bayesian method that is automatic, requiring the user to only provide the functional data and design matrices. It is efficient enough to handle large data sets, and yields posterior samples of all model parameters that can be used to perform desired Bayesian estimation and inference. Although we present details for a specific implementation of the R-FMM using specific distributional choices in the hierarchical model, 1D functions, and wavelet transforms, the method can be applied more generally using other heavy-tailed distributions, higher dimensional functions (e.g. images), and using other invertible transformations as alternatives to wavelets. PMID:22308015

A comparison of item response models for accuracy and speed of item responses with applications to adaptive testing.

PubMed

van Rijn, Peter W; Ali, Usama S

2017-05-01

We compare three modelling frameworks for accuracy and speed of item responses in the context of adaptive testing. The first framework is based on modelling scores that result from a scoring rule that incorporates both accuracy and speed. The second framework is the hierarchical modelling approach developed by van der Linden (2007, Psychometrika, 72, 287) in which a regular item response model is specified for accuracy and a log-normal model for speed. The third framework is the diffusion framework in which the response is assumed to be the result of a Wiener process. Although the three frameworks differ in the relation between accuracy and speed, one commonality is that the marginal model for accuracy can be simplified to the two-parameter logistic model. We discuss both conditional and marginal estimation of model parameters. Models from all three frameworks were fitted to data from a mathematics and spelling test. Furthermore, we applied a linear and adaptive testing mode to the data off-line in order to determine differences between modelling frameworks. It was found that a model from the scoring rule framework outperformed a hierarchical model in terms of model-based reliability, but the results were mixed with respect to correlations with external measures. © 2017 The British Psychological Society.

Neural control and adaptive neural forward models for insect-like, energy-efficient, and adaptable locomotion of walking machines

PubMed Central

Manoonpong, Poramate; Parlitz, Ulrich; Wörgötter, Florentin

2013-01-01

Living creatures, like walking animals, have found fascinating solutions for the problem of locomotion control. Their movements show the impression of elegance including versatile, energy-efficient, and adaptable locomotion. During the last few decades, roboticists have tried to imitate such natural properties with artificial legged locomotion systems by using different approaches including machine learning algorithms, classical engineering control techniques, and biologically-inspired control mechanisms. However, their levels of performance are still far from the natural ones. By contrast, animal locomotion mechanisms seem to largely depend not only on central mechanisms (central pattern generators, CPGs) and sensory feedback (afferent-based control) but also on internal forward models (efference copies). They are used to a different degree in different animals. Generally, CPGs organize basic rhythmic motions which are shaped by sensory feedback while internal models are used for sensory prediction and state estimations. According to this concept, we present here adaptive neural locomotion control consisting of a CPG mechanism with neuromodulation and local leg control mechanisms based on sensory feedback and adaptive neural forward models with efference copies. This neural closed-loop controller enables a walking machine to perform a multitude of different walking patterns including insect-like leg movements and gaits as well as energy-efficient locomotion. In addition, the forward models allow the machine to autonomously adapt its locomotion to deal with a change of terrain, losing of ground contact during stance phase, stepping on or hitting an obstacle during swing phase, leg damage, and even to promote cockroach-like climbing behavior. Thus, the results presented here show that the employed embodied neural closed-loop system can be a powerful way for developing robust and adaptable machines. PMID:23408775

A novel adaptive biogeochemical model, and its 3-D application for a decadal hindcast simulation of the biogeochemistry of the southern North Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kerimoglu, Onur; Hofmeister, Richard; Wirtz, Kai

2016-04-01

Adaptation and acclimation processes are often ignored in ecosystem-scale model implementations, despite the long-standing recognition of their importance. Here we present a novel adaptive phytoplankton growth model where acclimation of the community to the changes in external resource ratios is accounted for, using optimality principles and dynamic physiological traits. We show that the model can reproduce the internal stoichiometries obtained at marginal supply ratios in chemostat experiments. The model is applied in a decadal hindcast simulation of the southern North Sea, where it is coupled to a 2-D benthic model and a 3-D hydrodynamic model in an approximately 1.5km horizontal resolution at the German Bight coast. The model is shown to have good skill in capturing the steep, coastal gradients in the German Bight, suggested by the match between the estimated and observed dissolved nutrient and chlorophyll concentrations. We then analyze the differential sensitivity of the coastal and off-shore zones to major drivers of the system, such as riverine nutrient loads. We demonstrate that the relevance of phytoplankton acclimation varies across coastal gradients and can become particularly significant in terms of summer nutrient depletion.

Adaptive landscape and functional diversity of Neotropical cichlids: implications for the ecology and evolution of Cichlinae (Cichlidae; Cichliformes).

PubMed

Arbour, J H; López-Fernández, H

2014-11-01

Morphological, lineage and ecological diversity can vary substantially even among closely related lineages. Factors that influence morphological diversification, especially in functionally relevant traits, can help to explain the modern distribution of disparity across phylogenies and communities. Multivariate axes of feeding functional morphology from 75 species of Neotropical cichlid and a stepwise-AIC algorithm were used to estimate the adaptive landscape of functional morphospace in Cichlinae. Adaptive landscape complexity and convergence, as well as the functional diversity of Cichlinae, were compared with expectations under null evolutionary models. Neotropical cichlid feeding function varied primarily between traits associated with ram feeding vs. suction feeding/biting and secondarily with oral jaw muscle size and pharyngeal crushing capacity. The number of changes in selective regimes and the amount of convergence between lineages was higher than expected under a null model of evolution, but convergence was not higher than expected under a similarly complex adaptive landscape. Functional disparity was compatible with an adaptive landscape model, whereas the distribution of evolutionary change through morphospace corresponded with a process of evolution towards a single adaptive peak. The continentally distributed Neotropical cichlids have evolved relatively rapidly towards a number of adaptive peaks in functional trait space. Selection in Cichlinae functional morphospace is more complex than expected under null evolutionary models. The complexity of selective constraints in feeding morphology has likely been a significant contributor to the diversity of feeding ecology in this clade. © 2014 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2014 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

Comparison of built environment adaptations to heat exposure and mortality during hot weather, West Midlands region, UK.

PubMed

Taylor, Jonathon; Wilkinson, Paul; Picetti, Roberto; Symonds, Phil; Heaviside, Clare; Macintyre, Helen L; Davies, Michael; Mavrogianni, Anna; Hutchinson, Emma

2018-02-01

There is growing recognition of the need to improve protection against the adverse health effects of hot weather in the context of climate change. We quantify the impact of the Urban Heat Island (UHI) and selected adaptation measures made to dwellings on temperature exposure and mortality in the West Midlands region of the UK. We used 1) building physics models to assess indoor temperatures, initially in the existing housing stock and then following adaptation measures (energy efficiency building fabric upgrades and/or window shutters), of representative dwelling archetypes using data from the English Housing Survey (EHS), and 2) modelled UHI effect on outdoor temperatures. The ages of residents were combined with evidence on the heat-mortality relationship to estimate mortality risk and to quantify population-level changes in risk following adaptations to reduce summertime heat exposure. Results indicate that the UHI effect accounts for an estimated 21% of mortality. External shutters may reduce heat-related mortality by 30-60% depending on weather conditions, while shutters in conjunction with energy-efficient retrofitting may reduce risk by up to 52%. The use of shutters appears to be one of the most effective measures providing protection against heat-related mortality during periods of high summer temperatures, although their effectiveness may be limited under extreme temperatures. Energy efficiency adaptations to the dwellings and measures to increase green space in the urban environment to combat the UHI effect appear to be less beneficial for reducing heat-related mortality. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Quantifying the Value of Downscaled Climate Model Information for Adaptation Decisions: When is Downscaling a Smart Decision?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Terando, A. J.; Wootten, A.; Eaton, M. J.; Runge, M. C.; Littell, J. S.; Bryan, A. M.; Carter, S. L.

2015-12-01

Two types of decisions face society with respect to anthropogenic climate change: (1) whether to enact a global greenhouse gas abatement policy, and (2) how to adapt to the local consequences of current and future climatic changes. The practice of downscaling global climate models (GCMs) is often used to address (2) because GCMs do not resolve key features that will mediate global climate change at the local scale. In response, the development of downscaling techniques and models has accelerated to aid decision makers seeking adaptation guidance. However, quantifiable estimates of the value of information are difficult to obtain, particularly in decision contexts characterized by deep uncertainty and low system-controllability. Here we demonstrate a method to quantify the additional value that decision makers could expect if research investments are directed towards developing new downscaled climate projections. As a proof of concept we focus on a real-world management problem: whether to undertake assisted migration for an endangered tropical avian species. We also take advantage of recently published multivariate methods that account for three vexing issues in climate impacts modeling: maximizing climate model quality information, accounting for model dependence in ensembles of opportunity, and deriving probabilistic projections. We expand on these global methods by including regional (Caribbean Basin) and local (Puerto Rico) domains. In the local domain, we test whether a high resolution (2km) dynamically downscaled GCM reduces the multivariate error estimate compared to the original coarse-scale GCM. Initial tests show little difference between the downscaled and original GCM multivariate error. When propagated through to a species population model, the Value of Information analysis indicates that the expected utility that would accrue to the manager (and species) if this downscaling were completed may not justify the cost compared to alternative actions.

Upper limb strength estimation of physically impaired persons using a musculoskeletal model: A sensitivity analysis.

PubMed

Carmichael, Marc G; Liu, Dikai

2015-01-01

Sensitivity of upper limb strength calculated from a musculoskeletal model was analyzed, with focus on how the sensitivity is affected when the model is adapted to represent a person with physical impairment. Sensitivity was calculated with respect to four muscle-tendon parameters: muscle peak isometric force, muscle optimal length, muscle pennation, and tendon slack length. Results obtained from a musculoskeletal model of average strength showed highest sensitivity to tendon slack length, followed by muscle optimal length and peak isometric force, which is consistent with existing studies. Muscle pennation angle was relatively insensitive. The analysis was repeated after adapting the musculoskeletal model to represent persons with varying severities of physical impairment. Results showed that utilizing the weakened model significantly increased the sensitivity of the calculated strength at the hand, with parameters previously insensitive becoming highly sensitive. This increased sensitivity presents a significant challenge in applications utilizing musculoskeletal models to represent impaired individuals.

Adapt-N: A Cloud-Based Computational Tool for Crop Nitrogen Management that Improves Production and Environmental Outcomes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Es, Harold; Sela, Shai; Marjerison, Rebecca; Melkonian, Jeff

2016-04-01

Maize production accounts for the largest share of crop land area in the US and is the largest consumer of nitrogen (N) fertilizers, while also having low N use efficiency. Routine application of N fertilizer has led to well-documented environmental problems and social costs. Adapt-N is a computational tool that combines soil, crop and management information with near-real-time weather data to estimate optimum N application rates for maize. Its cloud-based implementation allows for tracking and timely management of the dynamic gains and losses of N in cropping systems. This presentation will provide an overview of the tool and its implementation of farms. We also evaluated Adapt-N tool during five growing seasons (2011-to-2015) using a large dataset of both side-by-side (SBS) strip trials and multi-N rate experiments. The SBS trials consisted of 115 on-farm strip trials in Iowa and New York, each trial including yield results from replicated field-scale plots involving two sidedress N rate treatments: Adapt-N-estimated and Grower-selected (conventional). The Adapt-N rates were on average 53 and 30 kg ha-1 lower than Grower rates for NY and IA, respectively (-34% overall), with no statistically significant difference in yields. On average, Adapt-N rates increased grower profits by 63.9 ha-1 and resulted in an Adapt-N estimated decrease of 28 kg ha-1 (38%) in environmental N losses. A second set of strip trials involved multiple N-rate experiments in Wisconsin, Indiana, Ohio and NY, which allowed for the comparison of Adapt-N and conventional static recommendations to an Economic Optimum N Rate (determined through response model fitting). These trials demonstrated that Adapt-N can achieve the same profitability with greatly reduced average N inputs of 20 lbs N/ac for the Midwest and 65 lbs N/ac for the Northeast, resulting in significantly lower environmental losses. In conclusion, Adapt-N recommendations resulted in both increased growers profits and decreased environmental N losses by accounting for variable site and weather conditions.

Upscaling pore pressure-dependent gas permeability in shales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghanbarian, Behzad; Javadpour, Farzam

2017-04-01

Upscaling pore pressure dependence of shale gas permeability is of great importance and interest in the investigation of gas production in unconventional reservoirs. In this study, we apply the Effective Medium Approximation, an upscaling technique from statistical physics, and modify the Doyen model for unconventional rocks. We develop an upscaling model to estimate the pore pressure-dependent gas permeability from pore throat size distribution, pore connectivity, tortuosity, porosity, and gas characteristics. We compare our adapted model with six data sets: three experiments, one pore-network model, and two lattice-Boltzmann simulations. Results showed that the proposed model estimated the gas permeability within a factor of 3 of the measurements/simulations in all data sets except the Eagle Ford experiment for which we discuss plausible sources of discrepancies.

A removal model for estimating detection probabilities from point-count surveys

USGS Publications Warehouse

Farnsworth, G.L.; Pollock, K.H.; Nichols, J.D.; Simons, T.R.; Hines, J.E.; Sauer, J.R.

2002-01-01

Use of point-count surveys is a popular method for collecting data on abundance and distribution of birds. However, analyses of such data often ignore potential differences in detection probability. We adapted a removal model to directly estimate detection probability during point-count surveys. The model assumes that singing frequency is a major factor influencing probability of detection when birds are surveyed using point counts. This may be appropriate for surveys in which most detections are by sound. The model requires counts to be divided into several time intervals. Point counts are often conducted for 10 min, where the number of birds recorded is divided into those first observed in the first 3 min, the subsequent 2 min, and the last 5 min. We developed a maximum-likelihood estimator for the detectability of birds recorded during counts divided into those intervals. This technique can easily be adapted to point counts divided into intervals of any length. We applied this method to unlimited-radius counts conducted in Great Smoky Mountains National Park. We used model selection criteria to identify whether detection probabilities varied among species, throughout the morning, throughout the season, and among different observers. We found differences in detection probability among species. Species that sing frequently such as Winter Wren (Troglodytes troglodytes) and Acadian Flycatcher (Empidonax virescens) had high detection probabilities (∼90%) and species that call infrequently such as Pileated Woodpecker (Dryocopus pileatus) had low detection probability (36%). We also found detection probabilities varied with the time of day for some species (e.g. thrushes) and between observers for other species. We used the same approach to estimate detection probability and density for a subset of the observations with limited-radius point counts.

Estimation of soil cation exchange capacity using Genetic Expression Programming (GEP) and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Emamgolizadeh, S.; Bateni, S. M.; Shahsavani, D.; Ashrafi, T.; Ghorbani, H.

2015-10-01

The soil cation exchange capacity (CEC) is one of the main soil chemical properties, which is required in various fields such as environmental and agricultural engineering as well as soil science. In situ measurement of CEC is time consuming and costly. Hence, numerous studies have used traditional regression-based techniques to estimate CEC from more easily measurable soil parameters (e.g., soil texture, organic matter (OM), and pH). However, these models may not be able to adequately capture the complex and highly nonlinear relationship between CEC and its influential soil variables. In this study, Genetic Expression Programming (GEP) and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) were employed to estimate CEC from more readily measurable soil physical and chemical variables (e.g., OM, clay, and pH) by developing functional relations. The GEP- and MARS-based functional relations were tested at two field sites in Iran. Results showed that GEP and MARS can provide reliable estimates of CEC. Also, it was found that the MARS model (with root-mean-square-error (RMSE) of 0.318 Cmol+ kg-1 and correlation coefficient (R2) of 0.864) generated slightly better results than the GEP model (with RMSE of 0.270 Cmol+ kg-1 and R2 of 0.807). The performance of GEP and MARS models was compared with two existing approaches, namely artificial neural network (ANN) and multiple linear regression (MLR). The comparison indicated that MARS and GEP outperformed the MLP model, but they did not perform as good as ANN. Finally, a sensitivity analysis was conducted to determine the most and the least influential variables affecting CEC. It was found that OM and pH have the most and least significant effect on CEC, respectively.

Decoding tactile afferent activity to obtain an estimate of instantaneous force and torque applied to the fingerpad

PubMed Central

Birznieks, Ingvars; Redmond, Stephen J.

2015-01-01

Dexterous manipulation is not possible without sensory information about object properties and manipulative forces. Fundamental neuroscience has been unable to demonstrate how information about multiple stimulus parameters may be continuously extracted, concurrently, from a population of tactile afferents. This is the first study to demonstrate this, using spike trains recorded from tactile afferents innervating the monkey fingerpad. A multiple-regression model, requiring no a priori knowledge of stimulus-onset times or stimulus combination, was developed to obtain continuous estimates of instantaneous force and torque. The stimuli consisted of a normal-force ramp (to a plateau of 1.8, 2.2, or 2.5 N), on top of which −3.5, −2.0, 0, +2.0, or +3.5 mNm torque was applied about the normal to the skin surface. The model inputs were sliding windows of binned spike counts recorded from each afferent. Models were trained and tested by 15-fold cross-validation to estimate instantaneous normal force and torque over the entire stimulation period. With the use of the spike trains from 58 slow-adapting type I and 25 fast-adapting type I afferents, the instantaneous normal force and torque could be estimated with small error. This study demonstrated that instantaneous force and torque parameters could be reliably extracted from a small number of tactile afferent responses in a real-time fashion with stimulus combinations that the model had not been exposed to during training. Analysis of the model weights may reveal how interactions between stimulus parameters could be disentangled for complex population responses and could be used to test neurophysiologically relevant hypotheses about encoding mechanisms. PMID:25948866

Climate change damages to Alaska public infrastructure and the economics of proactive adaptation

PubMed Central

Melvin, April M.; Larsen, Peter; Boehlert, Brent; Neumann, James E.; Chinowsky, Paul; Espinet, Xavier; Martinich, Jeremy; Baumann, Matthew S.; Rennels, Lisa; Bothner, Alexandra; Nicolsky, Dmitry J.; Marchenko, Sergey S.

2017-01-01

Climate change in the circumpolar region is causing dramatic environmental change that is increasing the vulnerability of infrastructure. We quantified the economic impacts of climate change on Alaska public infrastructure under relatively high and low climate forcing scenarios [representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) and RCP4.5] using an infrastructure model modified to account for unique climate impacts at northern latitudes, including near-surface permafrost thaw. Additionally, we evaluated how proactive adaptation influenced economic impacts on select infrastructure types and developed first-order estimates of potential land losses associated with coastal erosion and lengthening of the coastal ice-free season for 12 communities. Cumulative estimated expenses from climate-related damage to infrastructure without adaptation measures (hereafter damages) from 2015 to 2099 totaled $5.5 billion (2015 dollars, 3% discount) for RCP8.5 and $4.2 billion for RCP4.5, suggesting that reducing greenhouse gas emissions could lessen damages by $1.3 billion this century. The distribution of damages varied across the state, with the largest damages projected for the interior and southcentral Alaska. The largest source of damages was road flooding caused by increased precipitation followed by damages to buildings associated with near-surface permafrost thaw. Smaller damages were observed for airports, railroads, and pipelines. Proactive adaptation reduced total projected cumulative expenditures to $2.9 billion for RCP8.5 and $2.3 billion for RCP4.5. For road flooding, adaptation provided an annual savings of 80–100% across four study eras. For nearly all infrastructure types and time periods evaluated, damages and adaptation costs were larger for RCP8.5 than RCP4.5. Estimated coastal erosion losses were also larger for RCP8.5. PMID:28028223

Climate change damages to Alaska public infrastructure and the economics of proactive adaptation.

PubMed

Melvin, April M; Larsen, Peter; Boehlert, Brent; Neumann, James E; Chinowsky, Paul; Espinet, Xavier; Martinich, Jeremy; Baumann, Matthew S; Rennels, Lisa; Bothner, Alexandra; Nicolsky, Dmitry J; Marchenko, Sergey S

2017-01-10

Climate change in the circumpolar region is causing dramatic environmental change that is increasing the vulnerability of infrastructure. We quantified the economic impacts of climate change on Alaska public infrastructure under relatively high and low climate forcing scenarios [representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) and RCP4.5] using an infrastructure model modified to account for unique climate impacts at northern latitudes, including near-surface permafrost thaw. Additionally, we evaluated how proactive adaptation influenced economic impacts on select infrastructure types and developed first-order estimates of potential land losses associated with coastal erosion and lengthening of the coastal ice-free season for 12 communities. Cumulative estimated expenses from climate-related damage to infrastructure without adaptation measures (hereafter damages) from 2015 to 2099 totaled $5.5 billion (2015 dollars, 3% discount) for RCP8.5 and $4.2 billion for RCP4.5, suggesting that reducing greenhouse gas emissions could lessen damages by $1.3 billion this century. The distribution of damages varied across the state, with the largest damages projected for the interior and southcentral Alaska. The largest source of damages was road flooding caused by increased precipitation followed by damages to buildings associated with near-surface permafrost thaw. Smaller damages were observed for airports, railroads, and pipelines. Proactive adaptation reduced total projected cumulative expenditures to $2.9 billion for RCP8.5 and $2.3 billion for RCP4.5. For road flooding, adaptation provided an annual savings of 80-100% across four study eras. For nearly all infrastructure types and time periods evaluated, damages and adaptation costs were larger for RCP8.5 than RCP4.5. Estimated coastal erosion losses were also larger for RCP8.5.

Design of a completely model free adaptive control in the presence of parametric, non-parametric uncertainties and random control signal delay.

PubMed

Tutsoy, Onder; Barkana, Duygun Erol; Tugal, Harun

2018-05-01

In this paper, an adaptive controller is developed for discrete time linear systems that takes into account parametric uncertainty, internal-external non-parametric random uncertainties, and time varying control signal delay. Additionally, the proposed adaptive control is designed in such a way that it is utterly model free. Even though these properties are studied separately in the literature, they are not taken into account all together in adaptive control literature. The Q-function is used to estimate long-term performance of the proposed adaptive controller. Control policy is generated based on the long-term predicted value, and this policy searches an optimal stabilizing control signal for uncertain and unstable systems. The derived control law does not require an initial stabilizing control assumption as in the ones in the recent literature. Learning error, control signal convergence, minimized Q-function, and instantaneous reward are analyzed to demonstrate the stability and effectiveness of the proposed adaptive controller in a simulation environment. Finally, key insights on parameters convergence of the learning and control signals are provided. Copyright © 2018 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

On state-of-charge determination for lithium-ion batteries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Zhe; Huang, Jun; Liaw, Bor Yann; Zhang, Jianbo

2017-04-01

Accurate estimation of state-of-charge (SOC) of a battery through its life remains challenging in battery research. Although improved precisions continue to be reported at times, almost all are based on regression methods empirically, while the accuracy is often not properly addressed. Here, a comprehensive review is set to address such issues, from fundamental principles that are supposed to define SOC to methodologies to estimate SOC for practical use. It covers topics from calibration, regression (including modeling methods) to validation in terms of precision and accuracy. At the end, we intend to answer the following questions: 1) can SOC estimation be self-adaptive without bias? 2) Why Ah-counting is a necessity in almost all battery-model-assisted regression methods? 3) How to establish a consistent framework of coupling in multi-physics battery models? 4) To assess the accuracy in SOC estimation, statistical methods should be employed to analyze factors that contribute to the uncertainty. We hope, through this proper discussion of the principles, accurate SOC estimation can be widely achieved.

Estimation of Longitudinal Force and Sideslip Angle for Intelligent Four-Wheel Independent Drive Electric Vehicles by Observer Iteration and Information Fusion.

PubMed

Chen, Te; Chen, Long; Xu, Xing; Cai, Yingfeng; Jiang, Haobin; Sun, Xiaoqiang

2018-04-20

Exact estimation of longitudinal force and sideslip angle is important for lateral stability and path-following control of four-wheel independent driven electric vehicle. This paper presents an effective method for longitudinal force and sideslip angle estimation by observer iteration and information fusion for four-wheel independent drive electric vehicles. The electric driving wheel model is introduced into the vehicle modeling process and used for longitudinal force estimation, the longitudinal force reconstruction equation is obtained via model decoupling, the a Luenberger observer and high-order sliding mode observer are united for longitudinal force observer design, and the Kalman filter is applied to restrain the influence of noise. Via the estimated longitudinal force, an estimation strategy is then proposed based on observer iteration and information fusion, in which the Luenberger observer is applied to achieve the transcendental estimation utilizing less sensor measurements, the extended Kalman filter is used for a posteriori estimation with higher accuracy, and a fuzzy weight controller is used to enhance the adaptive ability of observer system. Simulations and experiments are carried out, and the effectiveness of proposed estimation method is verified.

Estimation of Longitudinal Force and Sideslip Angle for Intelligent Four-Wheel Independent Drive Electric Vehicles by Observer Iteration and Information Fusion

PubMed Central

Chen, Long; Xu, Xing; Cai, Yingfeng; Jiang, Haobin; Sun, Xiaoqiang

2018-01-01

Exact estimation of longitudinal force and sideslip angle is important for lateral stability and path-following control of four-wheel independent driven electric vehicle. This paper presents an effective method for longitudinal force and sideslip angle estimation by observer iteration and information fusion for four-wheel independent drive electric vehicles. The electric driving wheel model is introduced into the vehicle modeling process and used for longitudinal force estimation, the longitudinal force reconstruction equation is obtained via model decoupling, the a Luenberger observer and high-order sliding mode observer are united for longitudinal force observer design, and the Kalman filter is applied to restrain the influence of noise. Via the estimated longitudinal force, an estimation strategy is then proposed based on observer iteration and information fusion, in which the Luenberger observer is applied to achieve the transcendental estimation utilizing less sensor measurements, the extended Kalman filter is used for a posteriori estimation with higher accuracy, and a fuzzy weight controller is used to enhance the adaptive ability of observer system. Simulations and experiments are carried out, and the effectiveness of proposed estimation method is verified. PMID:29677124

Systems Approach to Climate, Water, and Diarrhea in Hubli-Dharwad, India.

PubMed

Mellor, Jonathan; Kumpel, Emily; Ercumen, Ayse; Zimmerman, Julie

2016-12-06

Anthropogenic climate change will likely increase diarrhea rates for communities with inadequate water, sanitation, or hygiene facilities including those with intermittent water supplies. Current approaches to study these impacts typically focus on the effect of temperature on all-cause diarrhea while excluding precipitation and diarrhea etiology while not providing actionable adaptation strategies. We develop a partially mechanistic, systems approach to estimate future diarrhea prevalence and design adaptation strategies. The model incorporates downscaled global climate models, water quality data, quantitative microbial risk assessment, and pathogen prevalence in an agent-based modeling framework incorporating precipitation and diarrhea etiology. It is informed using water quality and diarrhea data from Hubli-Dharwad, India-a city with an intermittent piped water supply exhibiting seasonal water quality variability vulnerable to climate change. We predict all-cause diarrhea prevalence to increase by 4.9% (Range: 1.5-9.0%) by 2011-2030, 11.9% (Range: 7.1-18.2%) by 2046-2065, and 18.2% (Range: 9.1-26.2%) by 2080-2099. Rainfall is an important modifying factor. Rotavirus prevalence is estimated to decline by 10.5% with Cryptosporidium and E. coli prevalence increasing by 9.9% and 6.3%, respectively, by 2080-2099 in this setting. These results suggest that ceramic water filters would be recommended as a climate adaptation strategy over chlorination. This work highlights the vulnerability of intermittent water supplies to climate change and the urgent need for improvements.

A systematic approach for the accurate non-invasive estimation of blood glucose utilizing a novel light-tissue interaction adaptive modelling scheme

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rybynok, V. O.; Kyriacou, P. A.

2007-10-01

Diabetes is one of the biggest health challenges of the 21st century. The obesity epidemic, sedentary lifestyles and an ageing population mean prevalence of the condition is currently doubling every generation. Diabetes is associated with serious chronic ill health, disability and premature mortality. Long-term complications including heart disease, stroke, blindness, kidney disease and amputations, make the greatest contribution to the costs of diabetes care. Many of these long-term effects could be avoided with earlier, more effective monitoring and treatment. Currently, blood glucose can only be monitored through the use of invasive techniques. To date there is no widely accepted and readily available non-invasive monitoring technique to measure blood glucose despite the many attempts. This paper challenges one of the most difficult non-invasive monitoring techniques, that of blood glucose, and proposes a new novel approach that will enable the accurate, and calibration free estimation of glucose concentration in blood. This approach is based on spectroscopic techniques and a new adaptive modelling scheme. The theoretical implementation and the effectiveness of the adaptive modelling scheme for this application has been described and a detailed mathematical evaluation has been employed to prove that such a scheme has the capability of extracting accurately the concentration of glucose from a complex biological media.

A comparison of adaptive sampling designs and binary spatial models: A simulation study using a census of Bromus inermis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Irvine, Kathryn M.; Thornton, Jamie; Backus, Vickie M.; Hohmann, Matthew G.; Lehnhoff, Erik A.; Maxwell, Bruce D.; Michels, Kurt; Rew, Lisa

2013-01-01

Commonly in environmental and ecological studies, species distribution data are recorded as presence or absence throughout a spatial domain of interest. Field based studies typically collect observations by sampling a subset of the spatial domain. We consider the effects of six different adaptive and two non-adaptive sampling designs and choice of three binary models on both predictions to unsampled locations and parameter estimation of the regression coefficients (species–environment relationships). Our simulation study is unique compared to others to date in that we virtually sample a true known spatial distribution of a nonindigenous plant species, Bromus inermis. The census of B. inermis provides a good example of a species distribution that is both sparsely (1.9 % prevalence) and patchily distributed. We find that modeling the spatial correlation using a random effect with an intrinsic Gaussian conditionally autoregressive prior distribution was equivalent or superior to Bayesian autologistic regression in terms of predicting to un-sampled areas when strip adaptive cluster sampling was used to survey B. inermis. However, inferences about the relationships between B. inermis presence and environmental predictors differed between the two spatial binary models. The strip adaptive cluster designs we investigate provided a significant advantage in terms of Markov chain Monte Carlo chain convergence when trying to model a sparsely distributed species across a large area. In general, there was little difference in the choice of neighborhood, although the adaptive king was preferred when transects were randomly placed throughout the spatial domain.

High precision tracking control of a servo gantry with dynamic friction compensation.

PubMed

Zhang, Yangming; Yan, Peng; Zhang, Zhen

2016-05-01

This paper is concerned with the tracking control problem of a voice coil motor (VCM) actuated servo gantry system. By utilizing an adaptive control technique combined with a sliding mode approach, an adaptive sliding mode control (ASMC) law with friction compensation scheme is proposed in presence of both frictions and external disturbances. Based on the LuGre dynamic friction model, a dual-observer structure is used to estimate the unmeasurable friction state, and an adaptive control law is synthesized to effectively handle the unknown friction model parameters as well as the bound of the disturbances. Moreover, the proposed control law is also implemented on a VCM servo gantry system for motion tracking. Simulations and experimental results demonstrate good tracking performance, which outperform traditional control approaches. Copyright © 2016 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Scale-adaptive compressive tracking with feature integration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Wei; Li, Jicheng; Chen, Xiao; Li, Shuxin

2016-05-01

Numerous tracking-by-detection methods have been proposed for robust visual tracking, among which compressive tracking (CT) has obtained some promising results. A scale-adaptive CT method based on multifeature integration is presented to improve the robustness and accuracy of CT. We introduce a keypoint-based model to achieve the accurate scale estimation, which can additionally give a prior location of the target. Furthermore, by the high efficiency of data-independent random projection matrix, multiple features are integrated into an effective appearance model to construct the naïve Bayes classifier. At last, an adaptive update scheme is proposed to update the classifier conservatively. Experiments on various challenging sequences demonstrate substantial improvements by our proposed tracker over CT and other state-of-the-art trackers in terms of dealing with scale variation, abrupt motion, deformation, and illumination changes.

Stringent Mitigation Policy Implied By Temperature Impacts on Economic Growth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, F.; Turner, D.

2014-12-01

Integrated assessment models (IAMs) compare the costs of greenhouse gas mitigation with damages from climate change in order to evaluate the social welfare implications of climate policy proposals and inform optimal emissions reduction trajectories. However, these models have been criticized for lacking a strong empirical basis for their damage functions, which do little to alter assumptions of sustained GDP growth, even under extreme temperature scenarios. We implement empirical estimates of temperature effects on GDP growth-rates in the Dynamic Integrated Climate and Economy (DICE) model via two pathways, total factor productivity (TFP) growth and capital depreciation. Even under optimistic adaptation assumptions, this damage specification implies that optimal climate policy involves the elimination of emissions in the near future, the stabilization of global temperature change below 2°C, and a social cost of carbon (SCC) an order of magnitude larger than previous estimates. A sensitivity analysis shows that the magnitude of growth effects, the rate of adaptation, and the dynamic interaction between damages from warming and GDP are three critical uncertainties and an important focus for future research.

Rao-Blackwellization for Adaptive Gaussian Sum Nonlinear Model Propagation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Semper, Sean R.; Crassidis, John L.; George, Jemin; Mukherjee, Siddharth; Singla, Puneet

2015-01-01

When dealing with imperfect data and general models of dynamic systems, the best estimate is always sought in the presence of uncertainty or unknown parameters. In many cases, as the first attempt, the Extended Kalman filter (EKF) provides sufficient solutions to handling issues arising from nonlinear and non-Gaussian estimation problems. But these issues may lead unacceptable performance and even divergence. In order to accurately capture the nonlinearities of most real-world dynamic systems, advanced filtering methods have been created to reduce filter divergence while enhancing performance. Approaches, such as Gaussian sum filtering, grid based Bayesian methods and particle filters are well-known examples of advanced methods used to represent and recursively reproduce an approximation to the state probability density function (pdf). Some of these filtering methods were conceptually developed years before their widespread uses were realized. Advanced nonlinear filtering methods currently benefit from the computing advancements in computational speeds, memory, and parallel processing. Grid based methods, multiple-model approaches and Gaussian sum filtering are numerical solutions that take advantage of different state coordinates or multiple-model methods that reduced the amount of approximations used. Choosing an efficient grid is very difficult for multi-dimensional state spaces, and oftentimes expensive computations must be done at each point. For the original Gaussian sum filter, a weighted sum of Gaussian density functions approximates the pdf but suffers at the update step for the individual component weight selections. In order to improve upon the original Gaussian sum filter, Ref. [2] introduces a weight update approach at the filter propagation stage instead of the measurement update stage. This weight update is performed by minimizing the integral square difference between the true forecast pdf and its Gaussian sum approximation. By adaptively updating each component weight during the nonlinear propagation stage an approximation of the true pdf can be successfully reconstructed. Particle filtering (PF) methods have gained popularity recently for solving nonlinear estimation problems due to their straightforward approach and the processing capabilities mentioned above. The basic concept behind PF is to represent any pdf as a set of random samples. As the number of samples increases, they will theoretically converge to the exact, equivalent representation of the desired pdf. When the estimated qth moment is needed, the samples are used for its construction allowing further analysis of the pdf characteristics. However, filter performance deteriorates as the dimension of the state vector increases. To overcome this problem Ref. [5] applies a marginalization technique for PF methods, decreasing complexity of the system to one linear and another nonlinear state estimation problem. The marginalization theory was originally developed by Rao and Blackwell independently. According to Ref. [6] it improves any given estimator under every convex loss function. The improvement comes from calculating a conditional expected value, often involving integrating out a supportive statistic. In other words, Rao-Blackwellization allows for smaller but separate computations to be carried out while reaching the main objective of the estimator. In the case of improving an estimator's variance, any supporting statistic can be removed and its variance determined. Next, any other information that dependents on the supporting statistic is found along with its respective variance. A new approach is developed here by utilizing the strengths of the adaptive Gaussian sum propagation in Ref. [2] and a marginalization approach used for PF methods found in Ref. [7]. In the following sections a modified filtering approach is presented based on a special state-space model within nonlinear systems to reduce the dimensionality of the optimization problem in Ref. [2]. First, the adaptive Gaussian sum propagation is explained and then the new marginalized adaptive Gaussian sum propagation is derived. Finally, an example simulation is presented.

Cultural differences in strategic behavior: a study in computational estimation.

PubMed

Imbo, Ineke; Lefevre, Jo-Anne

2011-09-01

Imbo and LeFevre (2009) observed that Asians (responding in their 2nd language) selected strategies less adaptively than did non-Asians (responding in their 1st language). In the present research, we tested whether adaptive strategy selection is (a) really more resource demanding for Asians than for non-Asians or (b) more resource demanding for participants answering in a nonpreferred language. Three groups of participants were tested on a computational estimation task (e.g., 42 × 57 ≈ ?) in no-load and load conditions: 40 Belgian-educated adults who answered in their first language (Dutch), 40 Chinese-educated adults who answered in their first language (Chinese), and 40 Chinese-educated adults who answered in their second language (English). Although the Chinese were faster and more accurate than the Belgians, they selected strategies less adaptively. That is, the Chinese were less likely to choose the strategy that produced the best estimate; this was especially so when their working memory was loaded. Further, we also observed that the Chinese who answered in English were slower than the Chinese who answered in Chinese; this difference was larger for difficult strategies and under working memory load. These results are interpreted in terms of the encoding complex model, whereas the explanation for the adaptivity results is based on cultural differences in educational history. (c) 2011 APA, all rights reserved.

A shock-capturing SPH scheme based on adaptive kernel estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sigalotti, Leonardo Di G.; López, Hender; Donoso, Arnaldo; Sira, Eloy; Klapp, Jaime

2006-02-01

Here we report a method that converts standard smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) into a working shock-capturing scheme without relying on solutions to the Riemann problem. Unlike existing adaptive SPH simulations, the present scheme is based on an adaptive kernel estimation of the density, which combines intrinsic features of both the kernel and nearest neighbor approaches in a way that the amount of smoothing required in low-density regions is effectively controlled. Symmetrized SPH representations of the gas dynamic equations along with the usual kernel summation for the density are used to guarantee variational consistency. Implementation of the adaptive kernel estimation involves a very simple procedure and allows for a unique scheme that handles strong shocks and rarefactions the same way. Since it represents a general improvement of the integral interpolation on scattered data, it is also applicable to other fluid-dynamic models. When the method is applied to supersonic compressible flows with sharp discontinuities, as in the classical one-dimensional shock-tube problem and its variants, the accuracy of the results is comparable, and in most cases superior, to that obtained from high quality Godunov-type methods and SPH formulations based on Riemann solutions. The extension of the method to two- and three-space dimensions is straightforward. In particular, for the two-dimensional cylindrical Noh's shock implosion and Sedov point explosion problems the present scheme produces much better results than those obtained with conventional SPH codes.

Formulation and implementation of nonstationary adaptive estimation algorithm with applications to air-data reconstruction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Whitmore, S. A.

1985-01-01

The dynamics model and data sources used to perform air-data reconstruction are discussed, as well as the Kalman filter. The need for adaptive determination of the noise statistics of the process is indicated. The filter innovations are presented as a means of developing the adaptive criterion, which is based on the true mean and covariance of the filter innovations. A method for the numerical approximation of the mean and covariance of the filter innovations is presented. The algorithm as developed is applied to air-data reconstruction for the space shuttle, and data obtained from the third landing are presented. To verify the performance of the adaptive algorithm, the reconstruction is also performed using a constant covariance Kalman filter. The results of the reconstructions are compared, and the adaptive algorithm exhibits better performance.

INS/GNSS Tightly-Coupled Integration Using Quaternion-Based AUPF for USV.

PubMed

Xia, Guoqing; Wang, Guoqing

2016-08-02

This paper addresses the problem of integration of Inertial Navigation System (INS) and Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) for the purpose of developing a low-cost, robust and highly accurate navigation system for unmanned surface vehicles (USVs). A tightly-coupled integration approach is one of the most promising architectures to fuse the GNSS data with INS measurements. However, the resulting system and measurement models turn out to be nonlinear, and the sensor stochastic measurement errors are non-Gaussian and distributed in a practical system. Particle filter (PF), one of the most theoretical attractive non-linear/non-Gaussian estimation methods, is becoming more and more attractive in navigation applications. However, the large computation burden limits its practical usage. For the purpose of reducing the computational burden without degrading the system estimation accuracy, a quaternion-based adaptive unscented particle filter (AUPF), which combines the adaptive unscented Kalman filter (AUKF) with PF, has been proposed in this paper. The unscented Kalman filter (UKF) is used in the algorithm to improve the proposal distribution and generate a posterior estimates, which specify the PF importance density function for generating particles more intelligently. In addition, the computational complexity of the filter is reduced with the avoidance of the re-sampling step. Furthermore, a residual-based covariance matching technique is used to adapt the measurement error covariance. A trajectory simulator based on a dynamic model of USV is used to test the proposed algorithm. Results show that quaternion-based AUPF can significantly improve the overall navigation accuracy and reliability.

The Cost-Effectiveness of Syphilis Screening Among Men Who Have Sex With Men: An Exploratory Modeling Analysis.

PubMed

Chesson, Harrell W; Kidd, Sarah; Bernstein, Kyle T; Fanfair, Robyn Neblett; Gift, Thomas L

2016-07-01

We adapted a published model to estimate the costs and benefits of screening men who have sex with men for syphilis, including the benefits of preventing syphilis-attributable human immunodeficiency virus. The cost per quality-adjusted life year gained by screening was

Adaptable state based control system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rasmussen, Robert D. (Inventor); Dvorak, Daniel L. (Inventor); Gostelow, Kim P. (Inventor); Starbird, Thomas W. (Inventor); Gat, Erann (Inventor); Chien, Steve Ankuo (Inventor); Keller, Robert M. (Inventor)

2004-01-01

An autonomous controller, comprised of a state knowledge manager, a control executor, hardware proxies and a statistical estimator collaborates with a goal elaborator, with which it shares common models of the behavior of the system and the controller. The elaborator uses the common models to generate from temporally indeterminate sets of goals, executable goals to be executed by the controller. The controller may be updated to operate in a different system or environment than that for which it was originally designed by the replacement of shared statistical models and by the instantiation of a new set of state variable objects derived from a state variable class. The adaptation of the controller does not require substantial modification of the goal elaborator for its application to the new system or environment.

Goodness-of-Fit Tests and Nonparametric Adaptive Estimation for Spike Train Analysis

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

When dealing with classical spike train analysis, the practitioner often performs goodness-of-fit tests to test whether the observed process is a Poisson process, for instance, or if it obeys another type of probabilistic model (Yana et al. in Biophys. J. 46(3):323–330, 1984; Brown et al. in Neural Comput. 14(2):325–346, 2002; Pouzat and Chaffiol in Technical report, http://arxiv.org/abs/arXiv:0909.2785, 2009). In doing so, there is a fundamental plug-in step, where the parameters of the supposed underlying model are estimated. The aim of this article is to show that plug-in has sometimes very undesirable effects. We propose a new method based on subsampling to deal with those plug-in issues in the case of the Kolmogorov–Smirnov test of uniformity. The method relies on the plug-in of good estimates of the underlying model that have to be consistent with a controlled rate of convergence. Some nonparametric estimates satisfying those constraints in the Poisson or in the Hawkes framework are highlighted. Moreover, they share adaptive properties that are useful from a practical point of view. We show the performance of those methods on simulated data. We also provide a complete analysis with these tools on single unit activity recorded on a monkey during a sensory-motor task. Electronic Supplementary Material The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/2190-8567-4-3) contains supplementary material. PMID:24742008

The inverse problem of using the information of historical data to estimate model errors is one of the science frontier research topics. In this study, we investigate such a problem using the classic Lorenz (1963) equation as a prediction model.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wan, S.; He, W.

2016-12-01

The inverse problem of using the information of historical data to estimate model errors is one of the science frontier research topics. In this study, we investigate such a problem using the classic Lorenz (1963) equation as a prediction model and the Lorenz equation with a periodic evolutionary function as an accurate representation of reality to generate "observational data." On the basis of the intelligent features of evolutionary modeling (EM), including self-organization, self-adaptive and self-learning, the dynamic information contained in the historical data can be identified and extracted by computer automatically. Thereby, a new approach is proposed to estimate model errors based on EM in the present paper. Numerical tests demonstrate the ability of the new approach to correct model structural errors. In fact, it can actualize the combination of the statistics and dynamics to certain extent.

Unified Computational Methods for Regression Analysis of Zero-Inflated and Bound-Inflated Data

PubMed Central

Yang, Yan; Simpson, Douglas

2010-01-01

Bounded data with excess observations at the boundary are common in many areas of application. Various individual cases of inflated mixture models have been studied in the literature for bound-inflated data, yet the computational methods have been developed separately for each type of model. In this article we use a common framework for computing these models, and expand the range of models for both discrete and semi-continuous data with point inflation at the lower boundary. The quasi-Newton and EM algorithms are adapted and compared for estimation of model parameters. The numerical Hessian and generalized Louis method are investigated as means for computing standard errors after optimization. Correlated data are included in this framework via generalized estimating equations. The estimation of parameters and effectiveness of standard errors are demonstrated through simulation and in the analysis of data from an ultrasound bioeffect study. The unified approach enables reliable computation for a wide class of inflated mixture models and comparison of competing models. PMID:20228950

An integrated uncertainty analysis and data assimilation approach for improved streamflow predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hogue, T. S.; He, M.; Franz, K. J.; Margulis, S. A.; Vrugt, J. A.

2010-12-01

The current study presents an integrated uncertainty analysis and data assimilation approach to improve streamflow predictions while simultaneously providing meaningful estimates of the associated uncertainty. Study models include the National Weather Service (NWS) operational snow model (SNOW17) and rainfall-runoff model (SAC-SMA). The proposed approach uses the recently developed DiffeRential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) to simultaneously estimate uncertainties in model parameters, forcing, and observations. An ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is configured with the DREAM-identified uncertainty structure and applied to assimilating snow water equivalent data into the SNOW17 model for improved snowmelt simulations. Snowmelt estimates then serves as an input to the SAC-SMA model to provide streamflow predictions at the basin outlet. The robustness and usefulness of the approach is evaluated for a snow-dominated watershed in the northern Sierra Mountains. This presentation describes the implementation of DREAM and EnKF into the coupled SNOW17 and SAC-SMA models and summarizes study results and findings.

Bayesian calibration of terrestrial ecosystem models: a study of advanced Markov chain Monte Carlo methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Dan; Ricciuto, Daniel; Walker, Anthony; Safta, Cosmin; Munger, William

2017-09-01

Calibration of terrestrial ecosystem models is important but challenging. Bayesian inference implemented by Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling provides a comprehensive framework to estimate model parameters and associated uncertainties using their posterior distributions. The effectiveness and efficiency of the method strongly depend on the MCMC algorithm used. In this work, a differential evolution adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) algorithm is used to estimate posterior distributions of 21 parameters for the data assimilation linked ecosystem carbon (DALEC) model using 14 years of daily net ecosystem exchange data collected at the Harvard Forest Environmental Measurement Site eddy-flux tower. The calibration of DREAM results in a better model fit and predictive performance compared to the popular adaptive Metropolis (AM) scheme. Moreover, DREAM indicates that two parameters controlling autumn phenology have multiple modes in their posterior distributions while AM only identifies one mode. The application suggests that DREAM is very suitable to calibrate complex terrestrial ecosystem models, where the uncertain parameter size is usually large and existence of local optima is always a concern. In addition, this effort justifies the assumptions of the error model used in Bayesian calibration according to the residual analysis. The result indicates that a heteroscedastic, correlated, Gaussian error model is appropriate for the problem, and the consequent constructed likelihood function can alleviate the underestimation of parameter uncertainty that is usually caused by using uncorrelated error models.

Use of intraspecific variation in thermal responses for estimating an elevational cline in the timing of cold hardening in a sub-boreal conifer.

PubMed

Ishizuka, W; Ono, K; Hara, T; Goto, S

2015-01-01

To avoid winter frost damage, evergreen coniferous species develop cold hardiness with suitable phenology for the local climate regime. Along the elevational gradient, a genetic cline in autumn phenology is often recognised among coniferous populations, but further quantification of evolutionary adaptation related to the local environment and its responsible signals generating the phenological variation are poorly understood. We evaluated the timing of cold hardening among populations of Abies sachalinensis, based on time series freezing tests using trees derived from four seed source populations × three planting sites. Furthermore, we constructed a model to estimate the development of hardening from field temperatures and the intraspecific variations occurring during this process. An elevational cline was detected such that high-elevation populations developed cold hardiness earlier than low-elevation populations, representing significant genetic control. Because development occurred earlier at high-elevation planting sites, the genetic trend across elevation overlapped with the environmental trend. Based on the trade-off between later hardening to lengthen the active growth period and earlier hardening to avoid frost damage, this genetic cline would be adaptive to the local climate. Our modelling approach estimated intraspecific variation in two model components: the threshold temperature, which was the criterion for determining whether the trees accumulated the thermal value, and the chilling requirement for trees to achieve adequate cold hardiness. A higher threshold temperature and a lower chilling requirement could be responsible for the earlier phenology of the high-elevation population. These thermal responses may be one of the important factors driving the elevation-dependent adaptation of A. sachalinensis. © 2014 German Botanical Society and The Royal Botanical Society of the Netherlands.

Hypersonic entry vehicle state estimation using nonlinearity-based adaptive cubature Kalman filters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Tao; Xin, Ming

2017-05-01

Guidance, navigation, and control of a hypersonic vehicle landing on the Mars rely on precise state feedback information, which is obtained from state estimation. The high uncertainty and nonlinearity of the entry dynamics make the estimation a very challenging problem. In this paper, a new adaptive cubature Kalman filter is proposed for state trajectory estimation of a hypersonic entry vehicle. This new adaptive estimation strategy is based on the measure of nonlinearity of the stochastic system. According to the severity of nonlinearity along the trajectory, the high degree cubature rule or the conventional third degree cubature rule is adaptively used in the cubature Kalman filter. This strategy has the benefit of attaining higher estimation accuracy only when necessary without causing excessive computation load. The simulation results demonstrate that the proposed adaptive filter exhibits better performance than the conventional third-degree cubature Kalman filter while maintaining the same performance as the uniform high degree cubature Kalman filter but with lower computation complexity.

Individualized estimation of human core body temperature using noninvasive measurements.

PubMed

Laxminarayan, Srinivas; Rakesh, Vineet; Oyama, Tatsuya; Kazman, Josh B; Yanovich, Ran; Ketko, Itay; Epstein, Yoram; Morrison, Shawnda; Reifman, Jaques

2018-06-01

A rising core body temperature (T c ) during strenuous physical activity is a leading indicator of heat-injury risk. Hence, a system that can estimate T c in real time and provide early warning of an impending temperature rise may enable proactive interventions to reduce the risk of heat injuries. However, real-time field assessment of T c requires impractical invasive technologies. To address this problem, we developed a mathematical model that describes the relationships between T c and noninvasive measurements of an individual's physical activity, heart rate, and skin temperature, and two environmental variables (ambient temperature and relative humidity). A Kalman filter adapts the model parameters to each individual and provides real-time personalized T c estimates. Using data from three distinct studies, comprising 166 subjects who performed treadmill and cycle ergometer tasks under different experimental conditions, we assessed model performance via the root mean squared error (RMSE). The individualized model yielded an overall average RMSE of 0.33 (SD = 0.18)°C, allowing us to reach the same conclusions in each study as those obtained using the T c measurements. Furthermore, for 22 unique subjects whose T c exceeded 38.5°C, a potential lower T c limit of clinical relevance, the average RMSE decreased to 0.25 (SD = 0.20)°C. Importantly, these results remained robust in the presence of simulated real-world operational conditions, yielding no more than 16% worse RMSEs when measurements were missing (40%) or laden with added noise. Hence, the individualized model provides a practical means to develop an early warning system for reducing heat-injury risk. NEW & NOTEWORTHY A model that uses an individual's noninvasive measurements and environmental variables can continually "learn" the individual's heat-stress response by automatically adapting the model parameters on the fly to provide real-time individualized core body temperature estimates. This individualized model can replace impractical invasive sensors, serving as a practical and effective surrogate for core temperature monitoring.

A physics-based fractional order model and state of energy estimation for lithium ion batteries. Part II: Parameter identification and state of energy estimation for LiFePO4 battery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xiaoyu; Pan, Ke; Fan, Guodong; Lu, Rengui; Zhu, Chunbo; Rizzoni, Giorgio; Canova, Marcello

2017-11-01

State of energy (SOE) is an important index for the electrochemical energy storage system in electric vehicles. In this paper, a robust state of energy estimation method in combination with a physical model parameter identification method is proposed to achieve accurate battery state estimation at different operating conditions and different aging stages. A physics-based fractional order model with variable solid-state diffusivity (FOM-VSSD) is used to characterize the dynamic performance of a LiFePO4/graphite battery. In order to update the model parameter automatically at different aging stages, a multi-step model parameter identification method based on the lexicographic optimization is especially designed for the electric vehicle operating conditions. As the battery available energy changes with different applied load current profiles, the relationship between the remaining energy loss and the state of charge, the average current as well as the average squared current is modeled. The SOE with different operating conditions and different aging stages are estimated based on an adaptive fractional order extended Kalman filter (AFEKF). Validation results show that the overall SOE estimation error is within ±5%. The proposed method is suitable for the electric vehicle online applications.

Applied adaptive disturbance rejection using output redefinition on magnetic bearings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matras, Alex Logan

Recent work has shown Adaptive Disturbance Rejection to be an effective technique for rejecting forces due to imbalance, runout and base motion disturbances on flywheels supported by magnetic bearings over a large span of frequencies. Often the applicability of some of the adaptive methods is limited because they require certain properties (such as almost-strict positive realness) that magnetic bearings do not possess. In this thesis, one method for adaptive disturbance rejection, called Adaptive Feedforward Cancellation (AFC), is modified to allow for a much wider range of frequencies to be rejected. This is accomplished by redefining the output of the original system to be the output from a reduced order state estimator instead. This can give a new system with an infinite gain margin. Additionally, the adaptation laws for the two disturbance rejection gains are slightly modified so that each adapts to a different signal in order to provide the best performance. A detailed model of a magnetic bearing is developed and computer simulations based on that model are performed to give an initial test of the new control law. A state-of-the-art magnetic bearing setup is then developed and used to implement the new control laws and determine their effectiveness. The results are successful and validate the new ideas that are presented.

Estimation of dew point temperature using neuro-fuzzy and neural network techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kisi, Ozgur; Kim, Sungwon; Shiri, Jalal

2013-11-01

This study investigates the ability of two different artificial neural network (ANN) models, generalized regression neural networks model (GRNNM) and Kohonen self-organizing feature maps neural networks model (KSOFM), and two different adaptive neural fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) models, ANFIS model with sub-clustering identification (ANFIS-SC) and ANFIS model with grid partitioning identification (ANFIS-GP), for estimating daily dew point temperature. The climatic data that consisted of 8 years of daily records of air temperature, sunshine hours, wind speed, saturation vapor pressure, relative humidity, and dew point temperature from three weather stations, Daego, Pohang, and Ulsan, in South Korea were used in the study. The estimates of ANN and ANFIS models were compared according to the three different statistics, root mean square errors, mean absolute errors, and determination coefficient. Comparison results revealed that the ANFIS-SC, ANFIS-GP, and GRNNM models showed almost the same accuracy and they performed better than the KSOFM model. Results also indicated that the sunshine hours, wind speed, and saturation vapor pressure have little effect on dew point temperature. It was found that the dew point temperature could be successfully estimated by using T mean and R H variables.

Towards local estimation of emphysema progression using image registration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Staring, M.; Bakker, M. E.; Shamonin, D. P.; Stolk, J.; Reiber, J. H. C.; Stoel, B. C.

2009-02-01

Progression measurement of emphysema is required to evaluate the health condition of a patient and the effect of drugs. To locally estimate progression we use image registration, which allows for volume correction using the determinant of the Jacobian of the transformation. We introduce an adaptation of the so-called sponge model that circumvents its constant-mass assumption. Preliminary results from CT scans of a lung phantom and from CT data sets of three patients suggest that image registration may be a suitable method to locally estimate emphysema progression.

Space-Time Error Representation and Estimation in Navier-Stokes Calculations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barth, Timothy J.

2006-01-01

The mathematical framework for a-posteriori error estimation of functionals elucidated by Eriksson et al. [7] and Becker and Rannacher [3] is revisited in a space-time context. Using these theories, a hierarchy of exact and approximate error representation formulas are presented for use in error estimation and mesh adaptivity. Numerical space-time results for simple model problems as well as compressible Navier-Stokes flow at Re = 300 over a 2D circular cylinder are then presented to demonstrate elements of the error representation theory for time-dependent problems.

ZZ-Type a posteriori error estimators for adaptive boundary element methods on a curve☆

PubMed Central

Feischl, Michael; Führer, Thomas; Karkulik, Michael; Praetorius, Dirk

2014-01-01

In the context of the adaptive finite element method (FEM), ZZ-error estimators named after Zienkiewicz and Zhu (1987) [52] are mathematically well-established and widely used in practice. In this work, we propose and analyze ZZ-type error estimators for the adaptive boundary element method (BEM). We consider weakly singular and hyper-singular integral equations and prove, in particular, convergence of the related adaptive mesh-refining algorithms. Throughout, the theoretical findings are underlined by numerical experiments. PMID:24748725

Multiple testing with discrete data: Proportion of true null hypotheses and two adaptive FDR procedures.

PubMed

Chen, Xiongzhi; Doerge, Rebecca W; Heyse, Joseph F

2018-05-11

We consider multiple testing with false discovery rate (FDR) control when p values have discrete and heterogeneous null distributions. We propose a new estimator of the proportion of true null hypotheses and demonstrate that it is less upwardly biased than Storey's estimator and two other estimators. The new estimator induces two adaptive procedures, that is, an adaptive Benjamini-Hochberg (BH) procedure and an adaptive Benjamini-Hochberg-Heyse (BHH) procedure. We prove that the adaptive BH (aBH) procedure is conservative nonasymptotically. Through simulation studies, we show that these procedures are usually more powerful than their nonadaptive counterparts and that the adaptive BHH procedure is usually more powerful than the aBH procedure and a procedure based on randomized p-value. The adaptive procedures are applied to a study of HIV vaccine efficacy, where they identify more differentially polymorphic positions than the BH procedure at the same FDR level. © 2018 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Adaptive twisting sliding mode algorithm for hypersonic reentry vehicle attitude control based on finite-time observer.

PubMed

Guo, Zongyi; Chang, Jing; Guo, Jianguo; Zhou, Jun

2018-06-01

This paper focuses on the adaptive twisting sliding mode control for the Hypersonic Reentry Vehicles (HRVs) attitude tracking issue. The HRV attitude tracking model is transformed into the error dynamics in matched structure, whereas an unmeasurable state is redefined by lumping the existing unmatched disturbance with the angular rate. Hence, an adaptive finite-time observer is used to estimate the unknown state. Then, an adaptive twisting algorithm is proposed for systems subject to disturbances with unknown bounds. The stability of the proposed observer-based adaptive twisting approach is guaranteed, and the case of noisy measurement is analyzed. Also, the developed control law avoids the aggressive chattering phenomenon of the existing adaptive twisting approaches because the adaptive gains decrease close to the disturbance once the trajectories reach the sliding surface. Finally, numerical simulations on the attitude control of the HRV are conducted to verify the effectiveness and benefit of the proposed approach. Copyright © 2018 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.