HUMAN BODY SHAPE INDEX BASED ON AN EXPERIMENTALLY DERIVED MODEL OF HUMAN GROWTH

PubMed Central

Lebiedowska, Maria K.; Alter, Katharine E.; Stanhope, Steven J.

2009-01-01

Objectives To test the assumption of geometrically similar growth by developing experimentally derived models of human body growth during the age interval of 5–18 years; to use the derived growth models to establish a new Human Body Shape Index (HBSI) based on natural age related changes in HBS; and to compare various metrics of relative body weight (body mass index, ponderal index, HBSI) in a sample of 5–18 year old children. Study design Non-disabled Polish children (N=847) participated in this descriptive study. To model growth, the best fit between body height (H) and body mass (M) was calculated for each sex with the allometric equation M= miHχ. HBSI and HBSI were calculated separately for girls and boys, using sex-specific values for χ and a general HBSI from combined data. The customary body mass and ponderal indices were calculated and compared to HBSI values. Results The models of growth were M=13.11H2.84 (R2=.90) and M=13.64H2.68 (R2=.91) for girls and boys respectively. HBSI values contained less inherent variability and were influenced least by growth (age and height) than customary indices. Conclusion Age-related growth during childhood is sex-specific and not geometrically similar. Therefore, indices of human body shape formulated from experimentally derived models of human growth are superior to customary geometric similarity-based indices for the characterization of human body shape in children during the formative growth years. PMID:18154897

Human body shape index based on an experimentally derived model of human growth.

PubMed

Lebiedowska, Maria K; Alter, Katharine E; Stanhope, Steven J

2008-01-01

To test the assumption of geometrically similar growth by developing experimentally derived models of human body growth during the age interval of 5 to 18 years; to use these derived growth models to establish a new human body shape index (HBSI) based on natural age-related changes in human body shape (HBS); and to compare various metrics of relative body weight (body mass index [BMI], ponderal index [PI], and HBSI) in a sample of 5- to 18-year-old children. Nondisabled Polish children (n = 847) participated in this descriptive study. To model growth, the best fit between body height (H) and body mass (M) was calculated for each sex using the allometric equation M = m(i) H(chi). HBSI was calculated separately for girls and boys, using sex-specific values for chi and a general HBSI from combined data. The customary BMI and PI were calculated and compared with HBSI values. The models of growth were M = 13.11H(2.84) (R2 = 0.90) for girls and M = 13.64H(2.68) (R2 = 0.91) for boys. HBSI values contained less inherent variability and were less influenced by growth (age and height) compared with BMI and PI. Age-related growth during childhood is sex-specific and not geometrically similar. Therefore, indices of HBS formulated from experimentally derived models of human growth are superior to customary geometric similarity-based indices for characterizing HBS in children during the formative growth years.

Yucca Mountain Area Saturated Zone Dissolved Organic Carbon Isotopic Data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Thomas, James; Decker, David; Patterson, Gary

2007-06-25

Groundwater samples in the Yucca Mountain area were collected for chemical and isotopic analyses and measurements of water temperature, pH, specific conductivity, and alkalinity were obtained at the well or spring at the time of sampling. For this project, groundwater samples were analyzed for major-ion chemistry, deuterium, oxygen-18, and carbon isotopes of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC). The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) performed all the fieldwork on this project including measurement of water chemistry field parameters and sample collection. The major ions dissolved in the groundwater, deuterium, oxygen-18, and carbon isotopes of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC)more » were analyzed by the USGS. All preparation and processing of samples for DOC carbon isotopic analyses and geochemical modeling were performed by the Desert Research Institute (DRI). Analysis of the DOC carbon dioxide gas produced at DRI to obtain carbon-13 and carbon-14 values was conducted at the University of Arizona Accelerator Facility (a NSHE Yucca Mountain project QA qualified contract facility). The major-ion chemistry, deuterium, oxygen-18, and carbon isotopes of DIC were used in geochemical modeling (NETPATH) to determine groundwater sources, flow paths, mixing, and ages. The carbon isotopes of DOC were used to calculate groundwater ages that are independent of DIC model corrected carbon-14 ages. The DIC model corrected carbon-14 calculated ages were used to evaluate groundwater travel times for mixtures of water including water beneath Yucca Mountain. When possible, groundwater travel times were calculated for groundwater flow from beneath Yucca Mountain to down gradient sample sites. DOC carbon-14 groundwater ages were also calculated for groundwaters in the Yucca Mountain area. When possible, groundwater travel times were estimated for groundwater flow from beneath Yucca Mountain to down gradient groundwater sample sites using the DOC calculated groundwater ages. The DIC calculated groundwater ages were compared with DOC calculated groundwater ages and both of these ages were compared to travel times developed in ground-water flow and transport models. If nuclear waste is stored in Yucca Mountain, the saturated zone is the final barrier against the release of radionuclides to the environment. The most recent rendition of the TSPA takes little credit for the presence of the saturated zone and is a testament to the inadequate understanding of this important barrier. If radionuclides reach the saturated zone beneath Yucca Mountain, then there is a travel time before they would leave the Yucca Mountain area and flow down gradient to the Amargosa Valley area. Knowing how long it takes groundwater in the saturated zone to flow from beneath Yucca Mountain to down gradient areas is critical information for potential radionuclide transport. Radionuclide transport in groundwater may be the quickest pathway for radionuclides in the proposed Yucca Mountain repository to reach land surface by way of groundwater pumped in Amargosa Valley. An alternative approach to ground-water flow and transport models to determine the travel time of radionuclides from beneath Yucca Mountain to down gradient areas in the saturated zone is by carbon-14 dating of both inorganic and organic carbon dissolved in the groundwater. A standard method of determining ground-water ages is to measure the carbon-13 and carbon-14 of DIC in the groundwater and then correct the measured carbon-14 along a flow path for geochemical reactions that involve carbon containing phases. These geochemical reactions are constrained by carbon-13 and isotopic fractionations. Without correcting for geochemical reactions, the ground-water ages calculated from only the differences in carbon-14 measured along a flow path (assuming the decrease in carbon-14 is due strictly to radioactive decay) could be tens of thousands of years too old. The computer program NETPATH, developed by the USGS, is the best geochemical program for correcting carbon-14 activities for geochemical reactions. The DIC carbon-14 corrected ages can be further constrained by measuring the carbon isotopes of DOC. Because the only source of organic carbon in aquifers is almost always greater than 40,000 years old, any organic carbon that may be added to the groundwater would contain no carbon-14. Thus, ground-water ages determined by carbon isotopes of DOC should be maximum ages that can be used to constrain DIC corrected ages.« less

Accommodation and age-dependent eye model based on in vivo measurements.

PubMed

Zapata-Díaz, Juan F; Radhakrishnan, Hema; Charman, W Neil; López-Gil, Norberto

2018-03-21

To develop a flexible model of the average eye that incorporates changes with age and accommodation in all optical parameters, including entrance pupil diameter, under photopic, natural, environmental conditions. We collated retrospective in vivo measurements of all optical parameters, including entrance pupil diameter. Ray-tracing was used to calculate the wavefront aberrations of the eye model as a function of age, stimulus vergence and pupil diameter. These aberrations were used to calculate objective refraction using paraxial curvature matching. This was also done for several stimulus positions to calculate the accommodation response/stimulus curve. The model predicts a hyperopic change in distance refraction as the eye ages (+0.22D every 10 years) between 20 and 65 years. The slope of the accommodation response/stimulus curve was 0.72 for a 25 years-old subject, with little change between 20 and 45 years. A trend to a more negative value of primary spherical aberration as the eye accommodates is predicted for all ages (20-50 years). When accommodation is relaxed, a slight increase in primary spherical aberration (0.008μm every 10 years) between 20 and 65 years is predicted, for an age-dependent entrance pupil diameter ranging between 3.58mm (20 years) and 3.05mm (65 years). Results match reasonably well with studies performed in real eyes, except that spherical aberration is systematically slightly negative as compared with the practical data. The proposed eye model is able to predict changes in objective refraction and accommodation response. It has the potential to be a useful design and testing tool for devices (e.g. intraocular lenses or contact lenses) designed to correct the eye's optical errors. Copyright © 2018 Spanish General Council of Optometry. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Challenges of developing a cardiovascular risk calculator for patients with rheumatoid arthritis.

PubMed

Crowson, Cynthia S; Rollefstad, Silvia; Kitas, George D; van Riel, Piet L C M; Gabriel, Sherine E; Semb, Anne Grete

2017-01-01

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk calculators designed for use in the general population do not accurately predict the risk of CVD among patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA), who are at increased risk of CVD. The process of developing risk prediction models involves numerous issues. Our goal was to develop a CVD risk calculator for patients with RA. Thirteen cohorts of patients with RA originating from 10 different countries (UK, Norway, Netherlands, USA, Sweden, Greece, South Africa, Spain, Canada and Mexico) were combined. CVD risk factors and RA characteristics at baseline, in addition to information on CVD outcomes were collected. Cox models were used to develop a CVD risk calculator, considering traditional CVD risk factors and RA characteristics. Model performance was assessed using measures of discrimination and calibration with 10-fold cross-validation. A total of 5638 RA patients without prior CVD were included (mean age: 55 [SD: 14] years, 76% female). During a mean follow-up of 5.8 years (30139 person years), 389 patients developed a CVD event. Event rates varied between cohorts, necessitating inclusion of high and low risk strata in the models. The multivariable analyses revealed 2 risk prediction models including either a disease activity score including a 28 joint count and erythrocyte sedimentation rate (DAS28ESR) or a health assessment questionnaire (HAQ) along with age, sex, presence of hypertension, current smoking and ratio of total cholesterol to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol. Unfortunately, performance of these models was similar to general population CVD risk calculators. Efforts to develop a specific CVD risk calculator for patients with RA yielded 2 potential models including RA disease characteristics, but neither demonstrated improved performance compared to risk calculators designed for use in the general population. Challenges encountered and lessons learned are discussed in detail.

Using a Programmable Calculator to Teach Teophylline Pharmacokinetics.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Closson, Richard Grant

1981-01-01

A calculator program for a Texas Instruments Model 59 to predict serum theophylline concentrations is described. The program accommodates the input of multiple dose times at irregular intervals, clearance changes due to concurrent patient diseases and age less than 17 years. The calculations for five hypothetical patients are given. (Author/MLW)

Computation of Southern Pine Site Index Using a TI-59 Calculator

Treesearch

Robert M. Farrar

1983-01-01

A program is described that permits computation of site index in the field using a Texas Instruments model TI-59 programmable, hand-held, battery-powered calculator. Based on a series of equations developed by R.M. Farrar, Jr., for the site index curves in USDA Miscellaneous Publication 50, the program can accommodate any index base age, tree age, and height within...

How many neurosurgeons do we want to educate in Europe annually? The Danish proposal.

PubMed

Gjerris, F; Madsen, F F

1997-01-01

The neurosurgical population consists of professors, consultants, specialised senior registrars, and doctors in training (senior registrars, trainees and young doctors to be educated as neurosurgeons). Knowing number and size of the neurosurgical departments in each European country, the number of staff members, the politics of retirement (age, educational level) and the age of every neurosurgeon it is possible to calculate the exact number of trainees needed per year to maintain a state of balance in every single European country. With Denmark as a model we based our assessments partly on a simple calculation model of the exact annual number of neurosurgical trainees or senior registrars and partly used an actuary flow model for calculation. In Denmark with 5 neurosurgical departments, 5.2 mill. population and a retirement age of 70, we have an average of 1-2 newcomers per year and maintain a bulk of 10 senior registrars in education. Thus there will be a balance between intake of newcomers and retirement, of course with some unknown factors as unforeseen dismissal or resignation, death rate among neurosurgeons and transfer to private practice.

Constructing stage-structured matrix population models from life tables: comparison of methods

PubMed Central

Diaz-Lopez, Jasmin

2017-01-01

A matrix population model is a convenient tool for summarizing per capita survival and reproduction rates (collectively vital rates) of a population and can be used for calculating an asymptotic finite population growth rate (λ) and generation time. These two pieces of information can be used for determining the status of a threatened species. The use of stage-structured population models has increased in recent years, and the vital rates in such models are often estimated using a life table analysis. However, potential bias introduced when converting age-structured vital rates estimated from a life table into parameters for a stage-structured population model has not been assessed comprehensively. The objective of this study was to investigate the performance of methods for such conversions using simulated life histories of organisms. The underlying models incorporate various types of life history and true population growth rates of varying levels. The performance was measured by comparing differences in λ and the generation time calculated using the Euler-Lotka equation, age-structured population matrices, and several stage-structured population matrices that were obtained by applying different conversion methods. The results show that the discretization of age introduces only small bias in λ or generation time. Similarly, assuming a fixed age of maturation at the mean age of maturation does not introduce much bias. However, aggregating age-specific survival rates into a stage-specific survival rate and estimating a stage-transition rate can introduce substantial bias depending on the organism’s life history type and the true values of λ. In order to aggregate survival rates, the use of the weighted arithmetic mean was the most robust method for estimating λ. Here, the weights are given by survivorship curve after discounting with λ. To estimate a stage-transition rate, matching the proportion of individuals transitioning, with λ used for discounting the rate, was the best approach. However, stage-structured models performed poorly in estimating generation time, regardless of the methods used for constructing the models. Based on the results, we recommend using an age-structured matrix population model or the Euler-Lotka equation for calculating λ and generation time when life table data are available. Then, these age-structured vital rates can be converted into a stage-structured model for further analyses. PMID:29085763

Constructing stage-structured matrix population models from life tables: comparison of methods.

PubMed

Fujiwara, Masami; Diaz-Lopez, Jasmin

2017-01-01

A matrix population model is a convenient tool for summarizing per capita survival and reproduction rates (collectively vital rates) of a population and can be used for calculating an asymptotic finite population growth rate ( λ ) and generation time. These two pieces of information can be used for determining the status of a threatened species. The use of stage-structured population models has increased in recent years, and the vital rates in such models are often estimated using a life table analysis. However, potential bias introduced when converting age-structured vital rates estimated from a life table into parameters for a stage-structured population model has not been assessed comprehensively. The objective of this study was to investigate the performance of methods for such conversions using simulated life histories of organisms. The underlying models incorporate various types of life history and true population growth rates of varying levels. The performance was measured by comparing differences in λ and the generation time calculated using the Euler-Lotka equation, age-structured population matrices, and several stage-structured population matrices that were obtained by applying different conversion methods. The results show that the discretization of age introduces only small bias in λ or generation time. Similarly, assuming a fixed age of maturation at the mean age of maturation does not introduce much bias. However, aggregating age-specific survival rates into a stage-specific survival rate and estimating a stage-transition rate can introduce substantial bias depending on the organism's life history type and the true values of λ . In order to aggregate survival rates, the use of the weighted arithmetic mean was the most robust method for estimating λ . Here, the weights are given by survivorship curve after discounting with λ . To estimate a stage-transition rate, matching the proportion of individuals transitioning, with λ used for discounting the rate, was the best approach. However, stage-structured models performed poorly in estimating generation time, regardless of the methods used for constructing the models. Based on the results, we recommend using an age-structured matrix population model or the Euler-Lotka equation for calculating λ and generation time when life table data are available. Then, these age-structured vital rates can be converted into a stage-structured model for further analyses.

Cross-checking groundwater age by 4He and 14C dating in a granite, Tono area, central Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hasegawa, Takuma; Nakata, Kotaro; Tomioka, Yuichi; Goto, Kazuyuki; Kashiwaya, Koki; Hama, Katsuhiro; Iwatsuki, Teruki; Kunimaru, Takanori; Takeda, Masaki

2016-11-01

Groundwater dating was performed simultaneously by the 4He and 14C methods in granite of the Tono area in central Japan. Groundwater was sampled at 30 packed-off sections of six 1000-m boreholes. 4He concentrations increased and 14C concentrations decreased along a groundwater flow path on a topographic gradient. 4He ages were calculated by using the in situ 4He production rate derived from the porosity, density, and U and Th content of the rock, neglecting external flux. 14C ages were calculated with a noncorrected model in which the initial 14C content was 100 percent of the modern radiocarbon level (Co = 100 pmC), a statistical model using the average 14C content of tritium-bearing samples (Co = 46.4 pmC), and a δ13C model based on the isotopic mass balance. Although the absolute 14C ages calculated by the models were different, the relative 14C ages were almost identical. The relative 14C ages were considered reliable because dissolved inorganic carbon has no significant geochemical reactions in granite. The relation between the 4He ages and the noncorrected 14C ages was [4He age] = 1.15 [14C age] + 7200 (R2 = 0.81), except in the discharge area. The slope of this relation was equivalent to unity, which indicates that the 4He accumulation rate is confirmed by the relative 14C ages. Moreover, the accumulated 3He/4He ratio was equivalent to that derived from the 6Li(α,n)3H reaction in granite. These results show that the accumulated He is of crustal origin, produced in situ without external flux, except in the discharge area. The intercept value of 7200 a implies that the 14C concentrations were diluted due to geochemical reactions. Tritium-bearing samples supported this result. Simultaneous measurements make it feasible to estimate the accumulation rate of 4He and initial dilution of 14C, which cannot be done with a single method. Cross-checking groundwater dating has the potential to provide more reliable groundwater ages. The circulation time of the groundwater flow in the Tono area may be several tens of thousands of years, and the groundwater age calculated from the 4He and 14C ages appears to be consistent with geochemical information such as groundwater types, δD and δ18O.

Computational Modeling of Age-Differences In a Visually Demanding Driving Task: Vehicle Detection

DTIC Science & Technology

1997-10-07

overall estimate of d’ for each scene was calculated from the two levels using the method described in MacMillan and Creelman [13]. MODELING VEHICLE...Scialfa, "Visual and auditory aging," In J. Birren & K. W. Schaie (Eds.) Handbook of the Psychology of Aging (4th edition), 1996, New York: Academic...Computational models of Visual Processing, 1991, Boston MA: MIT Press. [13] N. A. MacMillan & C. D. Creelman , Detection Theory: A User’s Guide, 1991

Prevalence of refractive errors in the Slovak population calculated using the Gullstrand schematic eye model.

PubMed

Popov, I; Valašková, J; Štefaničková, J; Krásnik, V

2017-01-01

A substantial part of the population suffers from some kind of refractive errors. It is envisaged that their prevalence may change with the development of society. The aim of this study is to determine the prevalence of refractive errors using calculations based on the Gullstrand schematic eye model. We used the Gullstrand schematic eye model to calculate refraction retrospectively. Refraction was presented as the need for glasses correction at a vertex distance of 12 mm. The necessary data was obtained using the optical biometer Lenstar LS900. Data which could not be obtained due to the limitations of the device was substituted by theoretical data from the Gullstrand schematic eye model. Only analyses from the right eyes were presented. The data was interpreted using descriptive statistics, Pearson correlation and t-test. The statistical tests were conducted at a level of significance of 5%. Our sample included 1663 patients (665 male, 998 female) within the age range of 19 to 96 years. Average age was 70.8 ± 9.53 years. Average refraction of the eye was 2.73 ± 2.13D (males 2.49 ± 2.34, females 2.90 ± 2.76). The mean absolute error from emmetropia was 3.01 ± 1.58 (males 2.83 ± 2.95, females 3.25 ± 3.35). 89.06% of the sample was hyperopic, 6.61% was myopic and 4.33% emmetropic. We did not find any correlation between refraction and age. Females were more hyperopic than males. We did not find any statistically significant hypermetopic shift of refraction with age. According to our estimation, the calculations of refractive errors using the Gullstrand schematic eye model showed a significant hypermetropic shift of more than +2D. Our results could be used in future for comparing the prevalence of refractive errors using same methods we used.Key words: refractive errors, refraction, Gullstrand schematic eye model, population, emmetropia.

A Methodology for Modeling Nuclear Power Plant Passive Component Aging in Probabilistic Risk Assessment under the Impact of Operating Conditions, Surveillance and Maintenance Activities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guler Yigitoglu, Askin

In the context of long operation of nuclear power plants (NPPs) (i.e., 60-80 years, and beyond), investigation of the aging of passive systems, structures and components (SSCs) is important to assess safety margins and to decide on reactor life extension as indicated within the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program. In the traditional probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodology, evaluating the potential significance of aging of passive SSCs on plant risk is challenging. Although passive SSC failure rates can be added as initiating event frequencies or basic event failure rates in the traditional event-tree/fault-tree methodology, these failure rates are generally based on generic plant failure data which means that the true state of a specific plant is not reflected in a realistic manner on aging effects. Dynamic PRA methodologies have gained attention recently due to their capability to account for the plant state and thus address the difficulties in the traditional PRA modeling of aging effects of passive components using physics-based models (and also in the modeling of digital instrumentation and control systems). Physics-based models can capture the impact of complex aging processes (e.g., fatigue, stress corrosion cracking, flow-accelerated corrosion, etc.) on SSCs and can be utilized to estimate passive SSC failure rates using realistic NPP data from reactor simulation, as well as considering effects of surveillance and maintenance activities. The objectives of this dissertation are twofold: The development of a methodology for the incorporation of aging modeling of passive SSC into a reactor simulation environment to provide a framework for evaluation of their risk contribution in both the dynamic and traditional PRA; and the demonstration of the methodology through its application to pressurizer surge line pipe weld and steam generator tubes in commercial nuclear power plants. In the proposed methodology, a multi-state physics based model is selected to represent the aging process. The model is modified via sojourn time approach to reflect the operational and maintenance history dependence of the transition rates. Thermal-hydraulic parameters of the model are calculated via the reactor simulation environment and uncertainties associated with both parameters and the models are assessed via a two-loop Monte Carlo approach (Latin hypercube sampling) to propagate input probability distributions through the physical model. The effort documented in this thesis towards this overall objective consists of : i) defining a process for selecting critical passive components and related aging mechanisms, ii) aging model selection, iii) calculating the probability that aging would cause the component to fail, iv) uncertainty/sensitivity analyses, v) procedure development for modifying an existing PRA to accommodate consideration of passive component failures, and, vi) including the calculated failure probability in the modified PRA. The proposed methodology is applied to pressurizer surge line pipe weld aging and steam generator tube degradation in pressurized water reactors.

Numerical simulation of artificial hip joint motion based on human age factor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramdhani, Safarudin; Saputra, Eko; Jamari, J.

2018-05-01

Artificial hip joint is a prosthesis (synthetic body part) which usually consists of two or more components. Replacement of the hip joint due to the occurrence of arthritis, ordinarily patients aged or older. Numerical simulation models are used to observe the range of motion in the artificial hip joint, the range of motion of joints used as the basis of human age. Finite- element analysis (FEA) is used to calculate stress von mises in motion and observes a probability of prosthetic impingement. FEA uses a three-dimensional nonlinear model and considers the position variation of acetabular liner cups. The result of numerical simulation shows that FEA method can be used to analyze the performance calculation of the artificial hip joint at this time more accurate than conventional method.

Modelling Precipitation Kinetics During Aging of Al-Mg-Si Alloys

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Du, Qiang; Friis, Jepser

A classical Kaufmann-Wagner numerical model is employed to predict the evolution of precipitate size distribution during the aging treatment of Al-Mg-Si alloys. One feature of the model is its fully coupling with CALPHAD database, and with the input of interfacial energy from ab-initial calculation, it is able to capture the morphological change of the precipitates. The simulation results will be compared with the experimental measurements.

Calculation of prevalence estimates through differential equations: application to stroke-related disability.

PubMed

Mar, Javier; Sainz-Ezkerra, María; Moler-Cuiral, Jose Antonio

2008-01-01

Neurological diseases now make up 6.3% of the global burden of disease mainly because they cause disability. To assess disability, prevalence estimates are needed. The objective of this study is to apply a method based on differential equations to calculate the prevalence of stroke-related disability. On the basis of a flow diagram, a set of differential equations for each age group was constructed. The linear system was solved analytically and numerically. The parameters of the system were obtained from the literature. The model was validated and calibrated by comparison with previous results. The stroke prevalence rate per 100,000 men was 828, and the rate for stroke-related disability was 331. The rates steadily rose with age, but the group between the ages of 65 and 74 years had the highest total number of individuals. Differential equations are useful to represent the natural history of neurological diseases and to make possible the calculation of the prevalence for the various states of disability. In our experience, when compared with the results obtained by Markov models, the benefit of the continuous use of time outweighs the mathematical requirements of our model. (c) 2008 S. Karger AG, Basel.

The CREp program, a fully parameterizable program to compute exposure ages (3He, 10Be)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin, L.; Blard, P. H.; Lave, J.; Delunel, R.; Balco, G.

2015-12-01

Over the last decades, cosmogenic exposure dating permitted major advances in Earth surface sciences, and particularly in paleoclimatology. Yet, exposure age calculation is a dense procedure. It requires numerous choices of parameterization and the use of an appropriate production rate. Nowadays, Earth surface scientists may either calculate exposure ages on their own or use the available programs. However, these programs do not offer the possibility to include all the most recent advances in Cosmic Ray Exposure (CRE) dating. Notably, they do not propose the most recent production rate datasets and they only offer few possibilities to test the impact of the atmosphere model and the geomagnetic model on the computed ages. We present the CREp program, a Matlab © code that computes CRE ages for 3He and 10Be over the last 2 million years. The CREp program includes the scaling models of Lal-Stone in the "Lal modified" version (Balco et al., 2008; Lal, 1991; Stone, 2000) and the LSD model (Lifton et al., 2014). For any of these models, CREP allows choosing between the ERA-40 atmosphere model (Uppala et al., 2005) and the standard atmosphere (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 1976). Regarding the geomagnetic database, users can opt for one of the three proposed datasets: Muscheler et al. 2005, GLOPIS-75 (Laj et al. 2004) and the geomagnetic framework proposed in the LSD model (Lifton et al., 2014). They may also import their own geomagnetic database. Importantly, the reference production rate can be chosen among a large variety of possibilities. We made an effort to propose a wide and homogenous calibration database in order to promote the use of local calibration rates: CREp includes all the calibration data published until July 2015 and will be able to access an updated online database including all the newly published production rates. This is crucial for improving the ages accuracy. Users may also choose a global production rate or use their own data to either calibrate a production rate or directly input a Sea Level High Latitude value. The program is fast to calculate a large number of ages and to export the final density probability function associated with each age into an Excel © spreadsheet format.

Evolutionary Calculations of Phase Separation in Crystallizing White Dwarf Stars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Montgomery, M. H.; Klumpe, E. W.; Winget, D. E.; Wood, M. A.

1999-11-01

We present an exploration of the significance of carbon/oxygen phase separation in white dwarf stars in the context of self-consistent evolutionary calculations. Because phase separation can potentially increase the calculated ages of the oldest white dwarfs, it can affect the age of the Galactic disk as derived from the downturn in the white dwarf luminosity function. We find that the largest possible increase in ages due to phase separation is ~1.5 Gyr, with a most likely value of approximately 0.6 Gyr, depending on the parameters of our white dwarf models. The most important factors influencing the size of this delay are the total stellar mass, the initial composition profile, and the phase diagram assumed for crystallization. We find a maximum age delay in models with masses of ~0.6 Msolar, which is near the peak in the observed white dwarf mass distribution. In addition, we note that the prescription that we have adopted for the mixing during crystallization provides an upper bound for the efficiency of this process, and hence a maximum for the age delays. More realistic treatments of the mixing process may reduce the size of this effect. We find that varying the opacities (via the metallicity) has little effect on the calculated age delays. In the context of Galactic evolution, age estimates for the oldest Galactic globular clusters range from 11.5 to 16 Gyr and depend on a variety of parameters. In addition, a 4-6 Gyr delay is expected between the formation of the globular clusters and the formation of the Galactic thin disk, while the observed white dwarf luminosity function gives an age estimate for the thin disk of 9.5+1.1-0.8 Gyr, without including the effect of phase separation. Using the above numbers, we see that phase separation could add between 0 and 3 Gyr to the white dwarf ages and still be consistent with the overall picture of Galaxy formation. Our calculated maximum value of <~1.5 Gyr fits within these bounds, as does our best-guess value of ~0.6 Gyr.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Smith, Jordan N.; Hinderliter, Paul M.; Timchalk, Charles

Sensitivity to chemicals in animals and humans are known to vary with age. Age-related changes in sensitivity to chlorpyrifos have been reported in animal models. A life-stage physiologically based pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic (PBPK/PD) model was developed to computationally predict disposition of CPF and its metabolites, chlorpyrifos-oxon (the ultimate toxicant) and 3,5,6-trichloro-2-pyridinol (TCPy), as well as B-esterase inhibition by chlorpyrifos-oxon in humans. In this model, age-dependent body weight was calculated from a generalized Gompertz function, and compartments (liver, brain, fat, blood, diaphragm, rapid, and slow) were scaled based on body weight from polynomial functions on a fractional body weight basis. Bloodmore » flows among compartments were calculated as a constant flow per compartment volume. The life-stage PBPK/PD model was calibrated and tested against controlled adult human exposure studies. Model simulations suggest age-dependent pharmacokinetics and response may exist. At oral doses ≥ 0.55 mg/kg of chlorpyrifos (significantly higher than environmental exposure levels), 6 mo old children are predicted to have higher levels of chlorpyrifos-oxon in blood and higher levels of red blood cell cholinesterase inhibition compared to adults from equivalent oral doses of chlorpyrifos. At lower doses that are more relevant to environmental exposures, the model predicts that adults will have slightly higher levels of chlorpyrifos-oxon in blood and greater cholinesterase inhibition. This model provides a computational framework for age-comparative simulations that can be utilized to predict CPF disposition and biological response over various postnatal life-stages.« less

Sensitivity of solar g-modes to varying G cosmologies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Guenther, D. B.; Sills, Ken; Demarque, Pierre; Krauss, Lawrence M.

1995-01-01

The sensitivity of the solar g-mode oscillation spectrum to variability in the universal gravitational constant G is described. Solar models in varying G cosmologies were constructed by evolving a zero-age main-sequence stellar model to the Sun's current age, while allowing the value of G to change according to the power law G(t) proportional to t(exp -beta), where Beta approximately equals delta G/GH and H is the Hubble constant. All solar models were constrained to the observed luminosity and radius at the current age of the Sun by adjusting the helium abundance and the mixing-length parameter of the models in the usual way for standard stellar models. Low-l g-mode oscillation periods were calculated for each of the models and compared to the claimed observation of the solar g-mode oscillation spectrum by Hill & Gu (1990). If one accepts Hill & Gu's claims, then within the uncertainties of the physics of the solar model calculation, our models rule out all but (delta G/GH) less than approximately 0.05. In other words, we conclude that G could not have varied by more than 2% over the past 4.5 Gyr, the lifetime of the present-day Sun. This result lends independent support to the validity of the standard solar model.

Bayesian assessment of moving group membership: importance of models and prior knowledge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Jinhee; Song, Inseok

2018-04-01

Young nearby moving groups are important and useful in many fields of astronomy such as studying exoplanets, low-mass stars, and the stellar evolution of the early planetary systems over tens of millions of years, which has led to intensive searches for their members. Identification of members depends on the used models sensitively; therefore, careful examination of the models is required. In this study, we investigate the effects of the models used in moving group membership calculations based on a Bayesian framework (e.g. BANYAN II) focusing on the beta-Pictoris moving group (BPMG). Three improvements for building models are suggested: (1) updating a list of accepted members by re-assessing memberships in terms of position, motion, and age, (2) investigating member distribution functions in XYZ, and (3) exploring field star distribution functions in XYZ and UVW. The effect of each change is investigated, and we suggest using all of these improvements simultaneously in future membership probability calculations. Using this improved MG membership calculation and the careful examination of the age, 57 bona fide members of BPMG are confirmed including 12 new members. We additionally suggest 17 highly probable members.

Global stability in a tuberculosis model of imperfect treatment with age-dependent latency and relapse.

PubMed

Ren, Shanjing

In this paper, an SEIR epidemic model for an imperfect treatment disease with age-dependent latency and relapse is proposed. The model is well-suited to model tuberculosis. The basic reproduction number R0 is calculated. We obtain the global behavior of the model in terms of R0. If R0< 1, the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable, whereas if R0>1, a Lyapunov functional is used to show that the endemic equilibrium is globally stable amongst solutions for which the disease is present.

Stage line diagram: an age-conditional reference diagram for tracking development.

PubMed

van Buuren, Stef; Ooms, Jeroen C L

2009-05-15

This paper presents a method for calculating stage line diagrams, a novel type of reference diagram useful for tracking developmental processes over time. Potential fields of applications include: dentistry (tooth eruption), oncology (tumor grading, cancer staging), virology (HIV infection and disease staging), psychology (stages of cognitive development), human development (pubertal stages) and chronic diseases (stages of dementia). Transition probabilities between successive stages are modeled as smoothly varying functions of age. Age-conditional references are calculated from the modeled probabilities by the mid-P value. It is possible to eliminate the influence of age by calculating standard deviation scores (SDS). The method is applied to the empirical data to produce reference charts on secondary sexual maturation. The mean of the empirical SDS in the reference population is close to zero, whereas the variance depends on age. The stage line diagram provides quick insight into both status (in SDS) and tempo (in SDS/year) of development of an individual child. Other measures (e.g. height SDS, body mass index SDS) from the same child can be added to the chart. Diagrams for sexual maturation are available as a web application at http://vps.stefvanbuuren.nl/puberty. The stage line diagram expresses status and tempo of discrete changes on a continuous scale. Wider application of these measures scores opens up new analytic possibilities. (c) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Theoretical foundation for measuring the groundwater age distribution.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gardner, William Payton; Arnold, Bill Walter

2014-01-01

In this study, we use PFLOTRAN, a highly scalable, parallel, flow and reactive transport code to simulate the concentrations of 3H, 3He, CFC-11, CFC-12, CFC-113, SF6, 39Ar, 81Kr, 4He and themean groundwater age in heterogeneous fields on grids with an excess of 10 million nodes. We utilize this computational platform to simulate the concentration of multiple tracers in high-resolution, heterogeneous 2-D and 3-D domains, and calculate tracer-derived ages. Tracer-derived ages show systematic biases toward younger ages when the groundwater age distribution contains water older than the maximum tracer age. The deviation of the tracer-derived age distribution from the true groundwatermore » age distribution increases with increasing heterogeneity of the system. However, the effect of heterogeneity is diminished as the mean travel time gets closer the tracer age limit. Age distributions in 3-D domains differ significantly from 2-D domains. 3D simulations show decreased mean age, and less variance in age distribution for identical heterogeneity statistics. High-performance computing allows for investigation of tracer and groundwater age systematics in high-resolution domains, providing a platform for understanding and utilizing environmental tracer and groundwater age information in heterogeneous 3-D systems. Groundwater environmental tracers can provide important constraints for the calibration of groundwater flow models. Direct simulation of environmental tracer concentrations in models has the additional advantage of avoiding assumptions associated with using calculated groundwater age values. This study quantifies model uncertainty reduction resulting from the addition of environmental tracer concentration data. The analysis uses a synthetic heterogeneous aquifer and the calibration of a flow and transport model using the pilot point method. Results indicate a significant reduction in the uncertainty in permeability with the addition of environmental tracer data, relative to the use of hydraulic measurements alone. Anthropogenic tracers and their decay products, such as CFC11, 3H, and 3He, provide significant constraint oninput permeability values in the model. Tracer data for 39Ar provide even more complete information on the heterogeneity of permeability and variability in the flow system than the anthropogenic tracers, leading to greater parameter uncertainty reduction.« less

Working memory and arithmetic calculation in children: the contributory roles of processing speed, short-term memory, and reading.

PubMed

Berg, Derek H

2008-04-01

The cognitive underpinnings of arithmetic calculation in children are noted to involve working memory; however, cognitive processes related to arithmetic calculation and working memory suggest that this relationship is more complex than stated previously. The purpose of this investigation was to examine the relative contributions of processing speed, short-term memory, working memory, and reading to arithmetic calculation in children. Results suggested four important findings. First, processing speed emerged as a significant contributor of arithmetic calculation only in relation to age-related differences in the general sample. Second, processing speed and short-term memory did not eliminate the contribution of working memory to arithmetic calculation. Third, individual working memory components--verbal working memory and visual-spatial working memory--each contributed unique variance to arithmetic calculation in the presence of all other variables. Fourth, a full model indicated that chronological age remained a significant contributor to arithmetic calculation in the presence of significant contributions from all other variables. Results are discussed in terms of directions for future research on working memory in arithmetic calculation.

Comparing Budget-based and Tracer-based Residence Times in Butte Basin, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moran, J. E.; Visser, A.; Esser, B.; Buck, C.

2017-12-01

The California Sustainable Groundwater Management Act of 2014 (SGMA) calls for basin-scale Groundwater Sustainability Plans (GSPs) that include a water budget covering a 50 year planning horizon. A nine layer, Integrated Water Flow Model (IWFM) developed for Butte Basin, California, allows examination of water budgets within 36 sub-regions having varying land and water use, to inform SGMA efforts. Detailed land use, soil type, groundwater pumping, and surface water delivery data were applied in the finite element IWFM calibration. In a sustainable system, the volume of storage does not change over a defined time period, and the residence time can be calculated from the water storage volume divided by the flux (recharge or discharge rate). Groundwater ages based on environmental tracer data reflect the mean residence time of groundwater, or its inverse, the turnover rate. Comparisons between budget-based residence times determined from storage and flux, and residence times determined from isotopic tracers of groundwater age, can provide insight into data quality, model reliability, and system sustainability. Budget-based groundwater residence times were calculated from IWFM model output by assuming constant storage and dividing by either averaged annual net recharge or discharge. Calculated residence times range between approximately 100 and 1000 years, with shorter times in subregions where pumping dominates discharge. Independently, 174 wells within the model boundaries were analyzed for tritium-helium groundwater age as part of the California Groundwater Ambient Monitoring and Assessment program. Age distributions from isotopic tracers were compared to model-derived groundwater residence times from groundwater budgets within the subregions of Butte Basin. Mean, apparent, tracer-based residence times are mostly between 20 and 40 years, but 25% of the long-screened wells that were sampled do not have detectable tritium, indicating residence times of more than about 60 years and broad age distributions. A key factor in making meaningful comparisons is to examine budget-based and tracer-based results over transmissive vertical sections, where pumping increases turnover time.

Computer models of social processes: the case of migration.

PubMed

Beshers, J M

1967-06-01

The demographic model is a program for representing births, deaths, migration, and social mobility as social processes in a non-stationary stochastic process (Markovian). Transition probabilities for each age group are stored and then retrieved at the next appearance of that age cohort. In this way new transition probabilities can be calculated as a function of the old transition probabilities and of two successive distribution vectors.Transition probabilities can be calculated to represent effects of the whole age-by-state distribution at any given time period, too. Such effects as saturation or queuing may be represented by a market mechanism; for example, migration between metropolitan areas can be represented as depending upon job supplies and labor markets. Within metropolitan areas, migration can be represented as invasion and succession processes with tipping points (acceleration curves), and the market device has been extended to represent this phenomenon.Thus, the demographic model makes possible the representation of alternative classes of models of demographic processes. With each class of model one can deduce implied time series (varying parame-terswithin the class) and the output of the several classes can be compared to each other and to outside criteria, such as empirical time series.

Recent results in nucleocosmochronology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cowan, John J.; Thielemann, F.-K.; Truran, J. W.

Rates for beta-delayed neutron emission and fission have recently been calculated for the mass range 70-100. Using these new rates and the calculated rates for neutron capture, photodisintegration and beta decay, dynamical r-process calculations have been performed. For certain assumed conditions, these r-process calculations give a good fit to the solar system r-process abundance curve. These calculations have been used to obtain new production ratios for the nuclear chronometer pairs used to determine the age of the Galaxy - (Th-232)/(U-238) = 1.60, (U-235)/(U-238) = 1.16, and (Pu-244)/(U-238) = 0.40. Using the new production ratio for (Th-232)/(U-238) and (U-235)/(U238), with the observed meteoritic values for these nuclei and assuming a model of chemical evolution of the Galaxy, the age of the Galaxy has been determined. The results depend upon the initial nucleosynthesis enrichment in the Galactic disk, S0. While there are uncertainties in the calculations for a range of S0 from 0.1 to 0.3 (i.e., from 10 to 30 percent), the age of the Galaxy is found to be 12.4-14.7 Gyr.

Metal-poor stars. IV - The evolution of red giants.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rood, R. T.

1972-01-01

Detailed evolutionary calculations for six Population-II red giants are presented. The first five of these models are followed from the zero age main sequence to the onset of the helium flash. The sixth model allows the effect of direct electron-neutrino interactions to be estimated. The updated input physics and evolutionary code are described briefly. The results of the calculations are presented in a manner pertinent to later stages of evolutions and suitable for comparison with observations.

LENMODEL: A forward model for calculating length distributions and fission-track ages in apatite

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crowley, Kevin D.

1993-05-01

The program LENMODEL is a forward model for annealing of fission tracks in apatite. It provides estimates of the track-length distribution, fission-track age, and areal track density for any user-supplied thermal history. The program approximates the thermal history, in which temperature is represented as a continuous function of time, by a series of isothermal steps of various durations. Equations describing the production of tracks as a function of time and annealing of tracks as a function of time and temperature are solved for each step. The step calculations are summed to obtain estimates for the entire thermal history. Computational efficiency is maximized by performing the step calculations backwards in model time. The program incorporates an intuitive and easy-to-use graphical interface. Thermal history is input to the program using a mouse. Model options are specified by selecting context-sensitive commands from a bar menu. The program allows for considerable selection of equations and parameters used in the calculations. The program was written for PC-compatible computers running DOS TM 3.0 and above (and Windows TM 3.0 or above) with VGA or SVGA graphics and a Microsoft TM-compatible mouse. Single copies of a runtime version of the program are available from the author by written request as explained in the last section of this paper.

Aging ballistic Lévy walks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Magdziarz, Marcin; Zorawik, Tomasz

2017-02-01

Aging can be observed for numerous physical systems. In such systems statistical properties [like probability distribution, mean square displacement (MSD), first-passage time] depend on a time span ta between the initialization and the beginning of observations. In this paper we study aging properties of ballistic Lévy walks and two closely related jump models: wait-first and jump-first. We calculate explicitly their probability distributions and MSDs. It turns out that despite similarities these models react very differently to the delay ta. Aging weakly affects the shape of probability density function and MSD of standard Lévy walks. For the jump models the shape of the probability density function is changed drastically. Moreover for the wait-first jump model we observe a different behavior of MSD when ta≪t and ta≫t .

Ages and transit times as important diagnostics of model performance for predicting C allocation in ecosystem models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ceballos-Núñez, Verónika; Richardson, Andrew; Sierra, Carlos

2017-04-01

The global carbon cycle is strongly controlled by the source/sink strength of vegetation as well as the capacity of terrestrial ecosystems to retain this carbon. However, it is uncertain how some vegetation dynamics such as the allocation of carbon to different ecosystem compartments should be represented in models. The assumptions behind model structures may result in highly divergent model predictions. Here, we asses model performance by calculating the age of the carbon in the system and in each compartment, and the overall transit time of C in the system. We used these diagnostics to assess the influence of three different carbon allocation schemes on the rates of C cycling in vegetation. First, we used published measurements of ecosystem C compartments from the Harvard Forest Environmental Measurement Site to find the best set of parameters for the different model structures. Second, we calculated C stocks, respiration fluxes, radiocarbon values, ages, and transit times. We found a good fit of the three model structures to the available data, but the time series of C in foliage and wood need to be complemented with other ecosystem compartments in order to reduce the high parameter collinearity that we observed and reduce model equifinality. Differences in model structures had a small impact on predicting ecosystem C compartments, but overall they resulted in very different predictions of age and transit time distributions. In particular, the inclusion of a storage compartment had an important impact on predicting system ages and transit times. In the case of the models with 1 or 2 storage compartments, the age of carbon in the system and in each of the compartments was distributed more towards younger ages than in the model that had no storage; the mean system age of these two models with storage was 80 years younger than in the model without storage. As expected from these age distributions, the mean transit time for the two models with storage compartments was 50 years faster than for the model without storage. These results suggest that ages and transit times, which can be indirectly measured using isotope tracers, serve as important diagnostics of model structure and could largely help to reduce uncertainties in model predictions. Furthermore, by considering age and transit times of C in vegetation compartments as distributions, not only their mean values, we obtain additional insights on the temporal dynamics of carbon use, storage, and allocation to plant parts, which not only depends on the rate at which this C is transferred in and out of the compartments, but also on the stochastic nature of the process itself.

Ink dating part II: Interpretation of results in a legal perspective.

PubMed

Koenig, Agnès; Weyermann, Céline

2018-01-01

The development of an ink dating method requires an important investment of resources in order to step from the monitoring of ink ageing on paper to the determination of the actual age of a questioned ink entry. This article aimed at developing and evaluating the potential of three interpretation models to date ink entries in a legal perspective: (1) the threshold model comparing analytical results to tabulated values in order to determine the maximal possible age of an ink entry, (2) the trend tests that focusing on the "ageing status" of an ink entry, and (3) the likelihood ratio calculation comparing the probabilities to observe the results under at least two alternative hypotheses. This is the first report showing ink dating interpretation results on a ballpoint be ink reference population. In the first part of this paper three ageing parameters were selected as promising from the population of 25 ink entries aged during 4 to 304days: the quantity of phenoxyethanol (PE), the difference between the PE quantities contained in a naturally aged sample and an artificially aged sample (R NORM ) and the solvent loss ratio (R%). In the current part, each model was tested using the three selected ageing parameters. Results showed that threshold definition remains a simple model easily applicable in practice, but that the risk of false positive cannot be completely avoided without reducing significantly the feasibility of the ink dating approaches. The trend tests from the literature showed unreliable results and an alternative had to be developed yielding encouraging results. The likelihood ratio calculation introduced a degree of certainty to the ink dating conclusion in comparison to the threshold approach. The proposed model remains quite simple to apply in practice, but should be further developed in order to yield reliable results in practice. Copyright © 2017 The Chartered Society of Forensic Sciences. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effects of aging in catastrophe on the steady state and dynamics of a microtubule population

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jemseena, V.; Gopalakrishnan, Manoj

2015-05-01

Several independent observations have suggested that the catastrophe transition in microtubules is not a first-order process, as is usually assumed. Recent in vitro observations by Gardner et al. [M. K. Gardner et al., Cell 147, 1092 (2011), 10.1016/j.cell.2011.10.037] showed that microtubule catastrophe takes place via multiple steps and the frequency increases with the age of the filament. Here we investigate, via numerical simulations and mathematical calculations, some of the consequences of the age dependence of catastrophe on the dynamics of microtubules as a function of the aging rate, for two different models of aging: exponential growth, but saturating asymptotically, and purely linear growth. The boundary demarcating the steady-state and non-steady-state regimes in the dynamics is derived analytically in both cases. Numerical simulations, supported by analytical calculations in the linear model, show that aging leads to nonexponential length distributions in steady state. More importantly, oscillations ensue in microtubule length and velocity. The regularity of oscillations, as characterized by the negative dip in the autocorrelation function, is reduced by increasing the frequency of rescue events. Our study shows that the age dependence of catastrophe could function as an intrinsic mechanism to generate oscillatory dynamics in a microtubule population, distinct from hitherto identified ones.

Parameterization of the Age-Dependent Whole Brain Apparent Diffusion Coefficient Histogram

PubMed Central

Batra, Marion; Nägele, Thomas

2015-01-01

Purpose. The distribution of apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) values in the brain can be used to characterize age effects and pathological changes of the brain tissue. The aim of this study was the parameterization of the whole brain ADC histogram by an advanced model with influence of age considered. Methods. Whole brain ADC histograms were calculated for all data and for seven age groups between 10 and 80 years. Modeling of the histograms was performed for two parts of the histogram separately: the brain tissue part was modeled by two Gaussian curves, while the remaining part was fitted by the sum of a Gaussian curve, a biexponential decay, and a straight line. Results. A consistent fitting of the histograms of all age groups was possible with the proposed model. Conclusions. This study confirms the strong dependence of the whole brain ADC histograms on the age of the examined subjects. The proposed model can be used to characterize changes of the whole brain ADC histogram in certain diseases under consideration of age effects. PMID:26609526

Applicability of Cameriere's and Drusini's age estimation methods to a sample of Turkish adults.

PubMed

Hatice, Boyacioglu Dogru; Nihal, Avcu; Nursel, Akkaya; Humeyra Ozge, Yilanci; Goksuluk, Dincer

2017-10-01

The aim of this study was to investigate the applicability of Drusini's and Cameriere's methods to a sample of Turkish people. Panoramic images of 200 individuals were allocated into two groups as study and test groups and examined by two observers. Tooth coronal indexes (TCI), which is the ratio between coronal pulp cavity height and crown height, were calculated in the mandibular first and second premolars and molars. Pulp/tooth area ratios (ARs) were calculated in the maxillary and mandibular canine teeth. Study group measurements were used to derive a regression model. Test group measurements were used to evaluate the accuracy of the regression model. Pearson's correlation coefficients and regression analysis were used. The correlations between TCIs and age were -0.230, -0.301, -0.344 and -0.257 for mandibular first premolar, second premolar, first molar and second molar, respectively. Those for the maxillary canine (MX) and mandibular canine (MN) ARs were -0.716 and -0.514, respectively. The MX ARs were used to build the linear regression model that explained 51.2% of the total variation, with a standard error of 9.23 years. The mean error of the estimates in test group was 8 years and age of 64% of the individuals were estimated with an error of <±10 years which is acceptable in forensic age prediction. The low correlation coefficients between age and TCI indicate that Drusini's method was not applicable to the estimation of age in a Turkish population. Using Cameriere's method, we derived a regression model.

Constraining Initiation and Onset Time of Plate Tectonics on Earth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roller, G.

2014-12-01

The onset time for modern-style plate tectonics is still heavily debated among geoscientists. Proposed timings range from the Phanerozoic to the Hadean. Here I present a new theoretical approach to tackle this question. I combine ideas of nuclear astrophysics and geochronology and apply the concept of sudden nucleosynthesis to calculate so-called nucleogeochronometric Rhenium-Osmium model ages. Sudden nucleosynthesis has been suggested by nuclear theory [1-2] as a possible mechanism for the creation of the heavy isotopes. Hence, this concept may generally be used to identify rapid (r-) neutron-capture process events. For Earth, nucleogeochronometric model age calculations based upon published pyroxenite and komatiite data [3-5] point to an r-process event around 3 Ga. Since the r-process requires high neutron densities and temperatures within seconds, a gravitational core collapse forming at least a part of the inner core is discussed as a possible cause, thus initiating modern-style plate tectonics at that time. This age is in line with an earlier proposed value of 2.7 Ga for an inner core forming event [6], pronounced changes in the magnitude of the geomagnetic field and geological evidence like the onset of extensive plutonism and crust formation starting around the Archean-Proterozoic transition. Besides, results from nucleogeochronometric age calculations for published peridotitic pentlandites [7] lead to corrections as to their previously inconsistent model ages: These are now in good agreement with their Proterozoic 1.43 Ga isochronous regression line, supporting the model. [1] Burbidge et al. (1957) Revs. Mod. Phys. 29, 547 - 650. [2] Hoyle et al. (1960) ApJ 132, 565 - 590. [3] Reisberg et al. (1991) Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 105, 196 - 213. [4] Roy-Barman et al. (1996) Chem. Geol. 130, 55 - 64. [5] Luck et al. (1984) Earth Planet Sci. Lett. 68, 205 - 208. [6] Hale (1987) Nature 329, 233 -237. [7] Smit et al. (2010) Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta 74, 3292 - 3306.

Recommended improvements to the DS02 dosimetry system's calculation of organ doses and their potential advantages for the Radiation Effects Research Foundation.

PubMed

Cullings, Harry M

2012-03-01

The Radiation Effects Research Foundation (RERF) uses a dosimetry system to calculate radiation doses received by the Japanese atomic bomb survivors based on their reported location and shielding at the time of exposure. The current system, DS02, completed in 2003, calculates detailed doses to 15 particular organs of the body from neutrons and gamma rays, using new source terms and transport calculations as well as some other improvements in the calculation of terrain and structural shielding, but continues to use methods from an older system, DS86, to account for body self-shielding. Although recent developments in models of the human body from medical imaging, along with contemporary computer speed and software, allow for improvement of the calculated organ doses, before undertaking changes to the organ dose calculations, it is important to evaluate the improvements that can be made and their potential contribution to RERF's research. The analysis provided here suggests that the most important improvements can be made by providing calculations for more organs or tissues and by providing a larger series of age- and sex-specific models of the human body from birth to adulthood, as well as fetal models.

Cosmogenic Ne-21 Production Rates in H-Chondrites Based on Cl-36 - Ar-36 Ages

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Leya, I.; Graf, Th.; Nishiizumi, K.; Guenther, D.; Wieler, R.

2000-01-01

We measured Ne-21 production rates in 14 H-chondrites in good agreement with model calculations. The production rates are based on Ne-21 concentrations measured on bulk samples or the non-magnetic fraction and Cl-36 - Ar-36 ages determined from the metal phase.

Analytical and sampling constraints in ²¹⁰Pb dating.

PubMed

MacKenzie, A B; Hardie, S M L; Farmer, J G; Eades, L J; Pulford, I D

2011-03-01

²¹⁰Pb dating provides a valuable, widely used means of establishing recent chronologies for sediments and other accumulating natural deposits. The Constant Rate of Supply (CRS) model is the most versatile and widely used method for establishing ²¹⁰Pb chronologies but, when using this model, care must be taken to account for limitations imposed by sampling and analytical factors. In particular, incompatibility of finite values for empirical data, which are constrained by detection limit and core length, with terms in the age calculation, which represent integrations to infinity, can generate erroneously old ages for deeper sections of cores. The bias in calculated ages increases with poorer limit of detection and the magnitude of the disparity increases with age. The origin and magnitude of this effect are considered below, firstly for an idealized, theoretical ²¹⁰Pb profile and secondly for a freshwater lake sediment core. A brief consideration is presented of the implications of this potential artefact for sampling and analysis. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Transit times and mean ages for nonautonomous and autonomous compartmental systems

DOE PAGES

Rasmussen, Martin; Hastings, Alan; Smith, Matthew J.; ...

2016-04-01

In this study, we develop a theory for transit times and mean ages for nonautonomous compartmental systems. Using the McKendrick–von Förster equation, we show that the mean ages of mass in a compartmental system satisfy a linear nonautonomous ordinary differential equation that is exponentially stable. We then define a nonautonomous version of transit time as the mean age of mass leaving the compartmental system at a particular time and show that our nonautonomous theory generalises the autonomous case. We apply these results to study a nine-dimensional nonautonomous compartmental system modeling the terrestrial carbon cycle, which is a modification of themore » Carnegie–Ames–Stanford approach model, and we demonstrate that the nonautonomous versions of transit time and mean age differ significantly from the autonomous quantities when calculated for that model.« less

Model 'zero-age' lunar thermal profiles resulting from electrical induction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Herbert, F.; Sonett, C. P.; Wiskerchen, M. J.

1977-01-01

Thermal profiles for the moon are calculated under the assumption that a pre-main-sequence T-Tauri-like solar wind excites both transverse magnetic and transverse electric induction while the moon is accreting. A substantial initial temperature rise occurs, possibly of sufficient magnitude to cause subsequent early extensive melting throughout the moon in conjunction with nominal long-lived radioactives. In these models, accretion is an unimportant direct source of thermal energy but is important because even small temperature rises from accretion cause significant changes in bulk electrical conductivity. Induction depends upon the radius of the moon, which we take to be accumulating while it is being heated electrically. The 'zero-age' profiles calculated in this paper are proposed as initial conditions for long-term thermal evolution of the moon.

Prediction uncertainty and data worth assessment for groundwater transport times in an agricultural catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zell, Wesley O.; Culver, Teresa B.; Sanford, Ward E.

2018-06-01

Uncertainties about the age of base-flow discharge can have serious implications for the management of degraded environmental systems where subsurface pathways, and the ongoing release of pollutants that accumulated in the subsurface during past decades, dominate the water quality signal. Numerical groundwater models may be used to estimate groundwater return times and base-flow ages and thus predict the time required for stakeholders to see the results of improved agricultural management practices. However, the uncertainty inherent in the relationship between (i) the observations of atmospherically-derived tracers that are required to calibrate such models and (ii) the predictions of system age that the observations inform have not been investigated. For example, few if any studies have assessed the uncertainty of numerically-simulated system ages or evaluated the uncertainty reductions that may result from the expense of collecting additional subsurface tracer data. In this study we combine numerical flow and transport modeling of atmospherically-derived tracers with prediction uncertainty methods to accomplish four objectives. First, we show the relative importance of head, discharge, and tracer information for characterizing response times in a uniquely data rich catchment that includes 266 age-tracer measurements (SF6, CFCs, and 3H) in addition to long term monitoring of water levels and stream discharge. Second, we calculate uncertainty intervals for model-simulated base-flow ages using both linear and non-linear methods, and find that the prediction sensitivity vector used by linear first-order second-moment methods results in much larger uncertainties than non-linear Monte Carlo methods operating on the same parameter uncertainty. Third, by combining prediction uncertainty analysis with multiple models of the system, we show that data-worth calculations and monitoring network design are sensitive to variations in the amount of water leaving the system via stream discharge and irrigation withdrawals. Finally, we demonstrate a novel model-averaged computation of potential data worth that can account for these uncertainties in model structure.

A holistic aging model for Li(NiMnCo)O2 based 18650 lithium-ion batteries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmalstieg, Johannes; Käbitz, Stefan; Ecker, Madeleine; Sauer, Dirk Uwe

2014-07-01

Knowledge on lithium-ion battery aging and lifetime estimation is a fundamental aspect for successful market introduction in high-priced goods like electric mobility. This paper illustrates the parameterization of a holistic aging model from accelerated aging tests. More than 60 cells of the same type are tested to analyze different impact factors. In calendar aging tests three temperatures and various SOC are applied to the batteries. For cycle aging tests especially different cycle depths and mean SOC are taken into account. Capacity loss and resistance increase are monitored as functions of time and charge throughput during the tests. From these data physical based functions are obtained, giving a mathematical description of aging. To calculate the stress factors like temperature or voltage, an impedance based electric-thermal model is coupled to the aging model. The model accepts power and current profiles as input, furthermore an ambient air temperature profile can be applied. Various drive cycles and battery management strategies can be tested and optimized using the lifetime prognosis of this tool. With the validation based on different realistic driving profiles and temperatures, a robust foundation is provided.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rasmussen, Martin; Hastings, Alan; Smith, Matthew J.

In this study, we develop a theory for transit times and mean ages for nonautonomous compartmental systems. Using the McKendrick–von Förster equation, we show that the mean ages of mass in a compartmental system satisfy a linear nonautonomous ordinary differential equation that is exponentially stable. We then define a nonautonomous version of transit time as the mean age of mass leaving the compartmental system at a particular time and show that our nonautonomous theory generalises the autonomous case. We apply these results to study a nine-dimensional nonautonomous compartmental system modeling the terrestrial carbon cycle, which is a modification of themore » Carnegie–Ames–Stanford approach model, and we demonstrate that the nonautonomous versions of transit time and mean age differ significantly from the autonomous quantities when calculated for that model.« less

Predictions of hydrothermal alteration within near-ridge oceanic crust from coordinated geochemical and fluid flow models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wetzel, L.R.; Raffensperger, Jeff P.; Shock, E.L.

2001-01-01

Coordinated geochemical and hydrological calculations guide our understanding of the composition, fluid flow patterns, and thermal structure of near-ridge oceanic crust. The case study presented here illustrates geochemical and thermal changes taking place as oceanic crust ages from 0.2 to 1.0 Myr. Using a finite element code, we model fluid flow and heat transport through the upper few hundred meters of an abyssal hill created at an intermediate spreading rate. We use a reaction path model with a customized database to calculate equilibrium fluid compositions and mineral assemblages of basalt and seawater at 500 bars and temperatures ranging from 150 to 400??C. In one scenario, reaction path calculations suggest that volume increases on the order of 10% may occur within portions of the basaltic basement. If this change in volume occurred, it would be sufficient to fill all primary porosity in some locations, effectively sealing off portions of the oceanic crust. Thermal profiles resulting from fluid flow simulations indicate that volume changes along this possible reaction path occur primarily within the first 0.4 Myr of crustal aging. ?? 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Value Added Productivity Indicators: A Statistical Comparison of the Pre-Test/Post-Test Model and Gain Model.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Weerasinghe, Dash; Orsak, Timothy; Mendro, Robert

In an age of student accountability, public school systems must find procedures for identifying effective schools, classrooms, and teachers that help students continue to learn academically. As a result, researchers have been modeling schools and classrooms to calculate productivity indicators that will withstand not only statistical review but…

Validation of ACG Case-mix for equitable resource allocation in Swedish primary health care.

PubMed

Zielinski, Andrzej; Kronogård, Maria; Lenhoff, Håkan; Halling, Anders

2009-09-18

Adequate resource allocation is an important factor to ensure equity in health care. Previous reimbursement models have been based on age, gender and socioeconomic factors. An explanatory model based on individual need of primary health care (PHC) has not yet been used in Sweden to allocate resources. The aim of this study was to examine to what extent the ACG case-mix system could explain concurrent costs in Swedish PHC. Diagnoses were obtained from electronic PHC records of inhabitants in Blekinge County (approx. 150,000) listed with public PHC (approx. 120,000) for three consecutive years, 2004-2006. The inhabitants were then classified into six different resource utilization bands (RUB) using the ACG case-mix system. The mean costs for primary health care were calculated for each RUB and year. Using linear regression models and log-cost as dependent variable the adjusted R2 was calculated in the unadjusted model (gender) and in consecutive models where age, listing with specific PHC and RUB were added. In an additional model the ACG groups were added. Gender, age and listing with specific PHC explained 14.48-14.88% of the variance in individual costs for PHC. By also adding information on level of co-morbidity, as measured by the ACG case-mix system, to specific PHC the adjusted R2 increased to 60.89-63.41%. The ACG case-mix system explains patient costs in primary care to a high degree. Age and gender are important explanatory factors, but most of the variance in concurrent patient costs was explained by the ACG case-mix system.

Calculating excess lifetime risk in relative risk models.

PubMed Central

Vaeth, M; Pierce, D A

1990-01-01

When assessing the impact of radiation exposure it is common practice to present the final conclusions in terms of excess lifetime cancer risk in a population exposed to a given dose. The present investigation is mainly a methodological study focusing on some of the major issues and uncertainties involved in calculating such excess lifetime risks and related risk projection methods. The age-constant relative risk model used in the recent analyses of the cancer mortality that was observed in the follow-up of the cohort of A-bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki is used to describe the effect of the exposure on the cancer mortality. In this type of model the excess relative risk is constant in age-at-risk, but depends on the age-at-exposure. Calculation of excess lifetime risks usually requires rather complicated life-table computations. In this paper we propose a simple approximation to the excess lifetime risk; the validity of the approximation for low levels of exposure is justified empirically as well as theoretically. This approximation provides important guidance in understanding the influence of the various factors involved in risk projections. Among the further topics considered are the influence of a latent period, the additional problems involved in calculations of site-specific excess lifetime cancer risks, the consequences of a leveling off or a plateau in the excess relative risk, and the uncertainties involved in transferring results from one population to another. The main part of this study relates to the situation with a single, instantaneous exposure, but a brief discussion is also given of the problem with a continuous exposure at a low-dose rate. PMID:2269245

Calculating excess lifetime risk in relative risk models.

PubMed

Vaeth, M; Pierce, D A

1990-07-01

When assessing the impact of radiation exposure it is common practice to present the final conclusions in terms of excess lifetime cancer risk in a population exposed to a given dose. The present investigation is mainly a methodological study focusing on some of the major issues and uncertainties involved in calculating such excess lifetime risks and related risk projection methods. The age-constant relative risk model used in the recent analyses of the cancer mortality that was observed in the follow-up of the cohort of A-bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki is used to describe the effect of the exposure on the cancer mortality. In this type of model the excess relative risk is constant in age-at-risk, but depends on the age-at-exposure. Calculation of excess lifetime risks usually requires rather complicated life-table computations. In this paper we propose a simple approximation to the excess lifetime risk; the validity of the approximation for low levels of exposure is justified empirically as well as theoretically. This approximation provides important guidance in understanding the influence of the various factors involved in risk projections. Among the further topics considered are the influence of a latent period, the additional problems involved in calculations of site-specific excess lifetime cancer risks, the consequences of a leveling off or a plateau in the excess relative risk, and the uncertainties involved in transferring results from one population to another. The main part of this study relates to the situation with a single, instantaneous exposure, but a brief discussion is also given of the problem with a continuous exposure at a low-dose rate.

Developmental Sentence Scoring for Japanese

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Miyata, Susanne; MacWhinney, Brian; Otomo, Kiyoshi; Sirai, Hidetosi; Oshima-Takane, Yuriko; Hirakawa, Makiko; Shirai, Yasuhiro; Sugiura, Masatoshi; Itoh, Keiko

2013-01-01

This article reports on the development and use of the Developmental Sentence Scoring for Japanese (DSSJ), a new morpho-syntactical measure for Japanese constructed after the model of Lee's English Developmental Sentence Scoring model. Using this measure, the authors calculated DSSJ scores for 84 children divided into six age groups between 2;8…

Sedimentation rates in eastern North America reveal strong links between regional climate, depositional environments, and sediment accumulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goring, S. J.; McLachlan, J. S.; Jackson, S. T.; Blaauw, M.; Christen, J.; Marlon, J.; Blois, J.; Williams, J. W.

2011-12-01

PalEON is a multidisciplinary project that combines paleo and modern ecological data with state-of-the-art statistical and modelling tools to examine the interactions between climate, fire and vegetation during the past two millennia in the northeastern United States. A fundamental challenge for PalEON (and paleo research more broadly) is to improve age modelling to yield more accurate sediment-core chronologies. To address this challenge, we assessed sedimentation rates and their controls for 218 lakes and mires in the northeastern U.S. Sedimentation rates (yr/cm) were calculated from age-depth models, which were obtained from the Neotoma database (www.neotomadb.org) and other contributed pollen records. The age models were recalibrated to IntCal09 and augmented in some cases using biostratigraphic markers (Picea decline, 16 kcal BP - 10.5 kcal BP; Quercus rise, 12 - 9.1 kcal BP; and Alnus decline, 11.5 - 10.6 kcal BP) as described in Blois et al. (2011). Relationships between sedimentation rates and sediment age, site longitude, and depositional environment (lacustrine or mire) are significant but weak. There are clear and significant links between variations in the NGRIP record of δ18O and sedimentation in mires across the PalEON region, but no links to lacustrine sedimentation rates. This result indicates that super-regional climatic control of primary productivity, and thus autochthonic sediment deposition, dominates in mires while deposition in lacustrine basins may be driven primarily by local and regional factors including watershed size, surficial materials,and regional vegetation. The shape of the gamma probability functions that best describe sedimentation rate distributions are calculated and presented here for use as priors in Bayesian age modelling applications such as BACON (Blaauw and Christen, in press). Future applications of this research are also discussed.

Calculating the individual probability of successful ocriplasmin treatment in eyes with VMT syndrome: a multivariable prediction model from the EXPORT study.

PubMed

Paul, Christoph; Heun, Christine; Müller, Hans-Helge; Hoerauf, Hans; Feltgen, Nicolas; Wachtlin, Joachim; Kaymak, Hakan; Mennel, Stefan; Koss, Michael Janusz; Fauser, Sascha; Maier, Mathias M; Schumann, Ricarda G; Mueller, Simone; Chang, Petrus; Schmitz-Valckenberg, Steffen; Kazerounian, Sara; Szurman, Peter; Lommatzsch, Albrecht; Bertelmann, Thomas

2017-10-31

To evaluate predictive factors for the treatment success of ocriplasmin and to use these factors to generate a multivariate model to calculate the individual probability of successful treatment. Data were collected in a retrospective, multicentre cohort study. Patients with vitreomacular traction (VMT) syndrome without a full-thickness macular hole were included if they received an intravitreal injection (IVI) of ocriplasmin. Five factors (age, gender, lens status, presence of epiretinal membrane (ERM) formation and horizontal diameter of VMT) were assessed on their association with VMT resolution. A multivariable logistic regression model was employed to further analyse these factors and calculate the individual probability of successful treatment. 167 eyes of 167 patients were included. Univariate analysis revealed a significant correlation to VMT resolution for all analysed factors: age (years) (OR 0.9208; 95% CI 0.8845 to 0.9586; p<0.0001), gender (male) (OR 0.480; 95% CI 0.241 to 0.957; p=0.0371), lens status (phakic) (OR 2.042; 95% CI 1.054 to 3.958; p=0.0344), ERM formation (present) (OR 0.384; 95% CI 0.179 to 0.821; p=0.0136) and horizontal VMT diameter (µm) (OR 0.99812; 95% CI 0.99684 to 0.99941, p=0.0042). A significant multivariable logistic regression model was established with age and VMT diameter. Known predictive factors for VMT resolution after ocriplasmin IVI were confirmed in our study. We were able to combine them into a formula, ultimately allowing the calculation of an individual probability of treatment success with ocriplasmin in patients with VMT syndrome without FTHM. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Transdiagnostic Risk Calculator for the Automatic Detection of Individuals at Risk and the Prediction of Psychosis: Second Replication in an Independent National Health Service Trust.

PubMed

Fusar-Poli, Paolo; Werbeloff, Nomi; Rutigliano, Grazia; Oliver, Dominic; Davies, Cathy; Stahl, Daniel; McGuire, Philip; Osborn, David

2018-06-12

The benefits of indicated primary prevention among individuals at Clinical High Risk for Psychosis (CHR-P) are limited by the difficulty in detecting these individuals. To overcome this problem, a transdiagnostic, clinically based, individualized risk calculator has recently been developed and subjected to a first external validation in 2 different catchment areas of the South London and Maudsley (SLaM) NHS Trust. Second external validation of real world, real-time electronic clinical register-based cohort study. All individuals who received a first ICD-10 index diagnosis of nonorganic and nonpsychotic mental disorder within the Camden and Islington (C&I) NHS Trust between 2009 and 2016 were included. The model previously validated included age, gender, ethnicity, age by gender, and ICD-10 index diagnosis to predict the development of any ICD-10 nonorganic psychosis. The model's performance was measured using Harrell's C-index. This study included a total of 13702 patients with an average age of 40 (range 16-99), 52% were female, and most were of white ethnicity (64%). There were no CHR-P or child/adolescent services in the C&I Trust. The C&I and SLaM Trust samples also differed significantly in terms of age, gender, ethnicity, and distribution of index diagnosis. Despite these significant differences, the original model retained an acceptable predictive performance (Harrell's C of 0.73), which is comparable to that of CHR-P tools currently recommended for clinical use. This risk calculator may pragmatically support an improved transdiagnostic detection of at-risk individuals and psychosis prediction even in NHS Trusts in the United Kingdom where CHR-P services are not provided.

Measurements and Slope Analyses of Quaternary Cinder Cones, Camargo Volcanic Field, Chihuahua, Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gallegos, M. I.; Espejel-Garcia, V. V.

2012-12-01

The Camargo volcanic field (CVF) covers ~3000 km2 and is located in the southeast part of the state of Chihuahua, within the Basin and Range province. The CVF represents the largest mafic alkali volcanic field in northern Mexico. Over a 300 cinder cones have been recognized in the Camargo volcanic field. Volcanic activity ranges from 4.7 to 0.09 Ma revealed by 40Ar/39Ar dating methods. Previous studies say that there is a close relationship between the cinder cone slope angle, due to mechanical weathering, and age. This technique is considered a reliable age indicator, especially in arid climates, such as occur in the CVF. Data were acquired with digital topographic maps (DRG) and digital elevation models (DEM) overlapped in the Global Mapper software. For each cone, the average radius (r) was calculated from six measurements, the height (h) is the difference between peak elevation and the altitude of the contour used to close the radius, and the slope angle was calculated using the equation Θ = tan-1(h/r). The slope angles of 30 cinder cones were calculated showing angles ranging from 4 to 15 degrees. A diffusion model, displayed by an exponential relationship between slope angle and age, places the ages of these 30 cones from 215 to 82 ka, within the range marked by radiometric methods. Future work include the analysis of more cinder cones to cover the whole CVF, and contribute to the validation of this technique.

Use of reflectance spectrophotometry and colorimetry in a general linear model for the determination of the age of bruises.

PubMed

Hughes, Vanessa K; Langlois, Neil E I

2010-12-01

Bruises can have medicolegal significance such that the age of a bruise may be an important issue. This study sought to determine if colorimetry or reflectance spectrophotometry could be employed to objectively estimate the age of bruises. Based on a previously described method, reflectance spectrophotometric scans were obtained from bruises using a Cary 100 Bio spectrophotometer fitted with a fibre-optic reflectance probe. Measurements were taken from the bruise and a control area. Software was used to calculate the first derivative at 490 and 480 nm; the proportion of oxygenated hemoglobin was calculated using an isobestic point method and a software application converted the scan data into colorimetry data. In addition, data on factors that might be associated with the determination of the age of a bruise: subject age, subject sex, degree of trauma, bruise size, skin color, body build, and depth of bruise were recorded. From 147 subjects, 233 reflectance spectrophotometry scans were obtained for analysis. The age of the bruises ranged from 0.5 to 231.5 h. A General Linear Model analysis method was used. This revealed that colorimetric measurement of the yellowness of a bruise accounted for 13% of the bruise age. By incorporation of the other recorded data (as above), yellowness could predict up to 32% of the age of a bruise-implying that 68% of the variation was dependent on other factors. However, critical appraisal of the model revealed that the colorimetry method of determining the age of a bruise was affected by skin tone and required a measure of the proportion of oxygenated hemoglobin, which is obtained by spectrophotometric methods. Using spectrophotometry, the first derivative at 490 nm alone accounted for 18% of the bruise age estimate. When additional factors (subject sex, bruise depth and oxygenation of hemoglobin) were included in the General Linear Model this increased to 31%-implying that 69% of the variation was dependent on other factors. This indicates that spectrophotometry would be of more use that colorimetry for assessing the age of bruises, but the spectrophotometric method used needs to be refined to provide useful data regarding the estimated age of a bruise. Such refinements might include the use of multiple readings or utilizing a comprehensive mathematical model of the optics of skin.

Creating a normative database of age-specific 3D geometrical data, bone density, and bone thickness of the developing skull: a pilot study.

PubMed

Delye, Hans; Clijmans, Tim; Mommaerts, Maurice Yves; Sloten, Jos Vnder; Goffin, Jan

2015-12-01

Finite element models (FEMs) of the head are used to study the biomechanics of traumatic brain injury and depend heavily on the use of accurate material properties and head geometry. Any FEM aimed at investigating traumatic head injury in children should therefore use age-specific dimensions of the head, as well as age-specific material properties of the different tissues. In this study, the authors built a database of age-corrected skull geometry, skull thickness, and bone density of the developing skull to aid in the development of an age-specific FEM of a child's head. Such a database, containing age-corrected normative skull geometry data, can also be used for preoperative surgical planning and postoperative long-term follow-up of craniosynostosis surgery results. Computed tomography data were processed for 187 patients (age range 0-20 years old). A 3D surface model was calculated from segmented skull surfaces. Skull models, reference points, and sutures were processed into a MATLAB-supported database. This process included automatic calculation of 2D measurements as well as 3D measurements: length of the coronal suture, length of the lambdoid suture, and the 3D anterior-posterior length, defined as the sum of the metopic and sagittal suture. Skull thickness and skull bone density calculations were included. Cephalic length, cephalic width, intercoronal distance, lateral orbital distance, intertemporal distance, and 3D measurements were obtained, confirming the well-established general growth pattern of the skull. Skull thickness increases rapidly in the first year of life, slowing down during the second year of life, while skull density increases with a fast but steady pace during the first 3 years of life. Both skull thickness and density continue to increase up to adulthood. This is the first report of normative data on 2D and 3D measurements, skull bone thickness, and skull bone density for children aged 0-20 years. This database can help build an age-specific FEM of a child's head. It can also help to tailor preoperative virtual planning in craniosynostosis surgery toward patient-specific normative target values and to perform objective long-term follow-up in craniosynostosis surgery.

Cooling Models for Old White Dwarfs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hansen, Brad M. S.

1999-08-01

We present new white dwarf cooling models that incorporate an accurate outer boundary condition based on new opacity and detailed radiative transfer calculations. We find that helium-atmosphere dwarfs cool considerably faster than has previously been claimed, while old hydrogen-atmosphere dwarfs will deviate significantly from blackbody appearance. We use our new models to derive age limits for the Galactic disk. We find that the Liebert, Dahn, & Monet luminosity function yields an age of only 6 Gyr if it is complete to stated limits. However, age estimates of individual dwarfs and the luminosity function of Oswalt et al. are both consistent with disk ages as large as ~11 Gyr. We have also used our models to place constraints on white dwarf dark matter in the Galactic halo. We find that previous attempts using inadequate cooling models were too severe and that direct detection limits allow a halo that is 11 Gyr old. If the halo is composed solely of helium-atmosphere dwarfs, the lower age limit is only 7.5 Gyr. We also demonstrate the importance of studying the cooling sequences of white dwarfs in globular clusters.

Predictive values derived from lower wisdom teeth developmental stages on orthopantomograms to calculate the chronological age in adolescence and young adults as a prerequisite to obtain age-adjusted informed patient consent prior to elective surgical procedures in young patients with incomplete or mismatched personal data.

PubMed

Friedrich, Reinhard E; Schmidt, Kirsten; Treszl, András; Kersten, Jan F

2016-01-01

Introduction: Surgical procedures require informed patient consent, which is mandatory prior to any procedure. These requirements apply in particular to elective surgical procedures. The communication with the patient about the procedure has to be comprehensive and based on mutual understanding. Furthermore, the informed consent has to take into account whether a patient is of legal age. As a result of large-scale migration, there are eventually patients planned for medical procedures, whose chronological age can't be assessed reliably by physical inspection alone. Age determination based on assessing wisdom tooth development stages can be used to help determining whether individuals involved in medical procedures are of legal age, i.e., responsible and accountable. At present, the assessment of wisdom tooth developmental stages barely allows a crude estimate of an individual's age. This study explores possibilities for more precise predictions of the age of individuals with emphasis on the legal age threshold of 18 years. Material and Methods: 1,900 dental orthopantomograms (female 938, male 962, age: 15-24 years), taken between the years 2000 and 2013 for diagnosis and treatment of diseases of the jaws, were evaluated. 1,895 orthopantomograms (female 935, male 960) of 1,804 patients (female 872, male 932) met the inclusion criteria. The archives of the Department of Diagnostic Radiology in Dentistry, University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf, and of an oral and maxillofacial office in Rostock, Germany, were used to collect a sufficient number of radiographs. An effort was made to achieve almost equal distribution of age categories in this study group; 'age' was given on a particular day. The radiological criteria of lower third molar investigation were: presence and extension of periodontal space, alveolar bone loss, emergence of tooth, and stage of tooth mineralization (according to Demirjian). Univariate and multivariate general linear models were calculated. Using hierarchical multivariate analyses a formula was derived quantifying the development of the four parameters of wisdom tooth over time. This model took repeated measurements of the same persons into account and is only applicable when a person is assessed a second time. The second approach investigates a linear regression model in order to predict the age. In a third approach, a classification and regression tree (CART) was developed to derive cut-off values for the four parameters, resulting in a classification with estimates for sensitivity and specificity. Results: No statistically significant differences were found between parameters related to wisdom tooth localization (right or left side). In univariate analyses being of legal age was associated with consecutive stages of wisdom tooth development, the obliteration of the periodontal space, and tooth emergence, as well with alveolar bone loss; no association was found with tooth mineralization. Multivariate models without repeated measurements revealed imprecise estimates because of the unknown individual-related variability. The precision of these models is thus not very good, although it improves with advancing age. When calculating a CART-analysis and a receiver operating characteristics - area under the curve of 78% was achieved; when maximizing both specificity and sensitivity, a Youden's index of 47% was achieved (with 73% specificity and 74% sensitivity). Discussion: This study provides a basis to help determine whether a person is 18 years or older in individuals who are assumed to be between 15 and 24 years old. From repeated measurements, we found a linear effect of age on the four parameters in the individuals. However, this information can't be used for prognosis, because of the large intra-individual variability. Thus, although the development of the four parameters can be estimated over time, a direct conclusion with regard to age can't be drawn from the parameters without previous biographic information about a person. While a single parameter is of limited value for calculating the target age of 18 years, combining several findings, that can be determined on a standard radiography, may potentially be a more reliable diagnostic tool for estimating the target age in both sexes. However, a high degree of precision can't be achieved. The reason for persistent uncertainty lies in the wide chronological range of wisdom tooth development, which stretches from well below to above the 18 th life year. The regression approach thus seems not optimal. Although sensitivity and specificity of the CART-model are moderately high, this model is still not reliable as a diagnostic tool. Our findings could have impact, e.g. on elective surgeries for young individuals with unknown biography. However, these results cannot replace social engagement, in particular thorough physical examination of patients and careful registration of their histories. Further studies on the use of this calculation method in different ethnic groups would be desirable.

Interpretation of Ferroan Anorthosite Ages and Implications for the Lunar Magma Ocean

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Neal, C. R.; Draper, D. S.

2017-01-01

Ferroan Anorthosites (FANs) are considered to have purportedly crystallized directly from the lunar magma ocean (LMO) as a flotation crust. LMO modeling suggests that such anorthosites started to form only after greater than 70 percent of the LMO had crystallized. Recent age dates for FANs have questioned this hypothesis as they span too large of an age range. This means a younger age for the Moon-forming giant impact or the LMO hypothesis is flawed. However, FANs are notoriously difficult to age-date using the isochron method. We have proposed a mechanism for testing the LMO hypothesis through using plagioclase trace element abundances to calculate equilibrium liquids and compare them with LMO crystallization models. We now examine the petrography of the samples that have Sm-Nd (Samarium-Neodymium) age dates (Rb-Sr (Rubidium-Strontium) isotopic systematics may have been disturbed) and propose a relative way to age date FANs.

Radar imaging of glaciovolcanic stratigraphy, Mount Wrangell caldera, Alaska - Interpretation model and results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Clarke, Garry K. C.; Cross, Guy M.; Benson, Carl S.

1989-01-01

Glaciological measurements and an airborne radar sounding survey of the glacier lying in Mount Wrangell caldera raise many questions concerning the glacier thermal regime and volcanic history of Mount Wrangell. An interpretation model has been developed that allows the depth variation of temperature, heat flux, pressure, density, ice velocity, depositional age, and thermal and dielectric properties to be calculated. Some predictions of the interpretation model are that the basal ice melting rate is 0.64 m/yr and the volcanic heat flux is 7.0 W/sq m. By using the interpretation model to calculate two-way travel time and propagation losses, radar sounding traces can be transformed to give estimates of the variation of power reflection coefficient as a function of depth and depositional age. Prominent internal reflecting zones are located at depths of approximately 59-91m, 150m, 203m, and 230m. These internal reflectors are attributed to buried horizons of acidic ice, possibly intermixed with volcanic ash, that were deposited during past eruptions of Mount Wrangell.

Sleep duration from infancy to adolescence: reference values and generational trends.

PubMed

Iglowstein, Ivo; Jenni, Oskar G; Molinari, Luciano; Largo, Remo H

2003-02-01

The main purpose of the present study was to calculate percentile curves for total sleep duration per 24 hours, for nighttime and for daytime sleep duration from early infancy to late adolescence to illustrate the developmental course and age-specific variability of these variables among subjects. A total of 493 subjects from the Zurich Longitudinal Studies were followed using structured sleep-related questionnaires at 1, 3, 6, 9, 12, 18, and 24 months after birth and then at annual intervals until 16 years of age. Gaussian percentiles for ages 3 months to 16 years were calculated for total sleep duration (time in bed) and nighttime and daytime sleep duration. The mean sleep duration for ages 1 to 16 years was estimated by generalized additive models based on the loess smoother; a cohort effect also had to be included. The standard deviation (SD) was estimated from the loess smoothed absolute residuals from the mean curve. For ages 3, 6, and 9 months, an alternative approach with a simple model linear in age was used. For age 1 month, empirical percentiles were calculated. Total sleep duration decreased from an average of 14.2 hours (SD: 1.9 hours) at 6 months of age to an average of 8.1 hours (SD: 0.8 hours) at 16 years of age. The variance showed the same declining trend: the interquartile range at 6 months after birth was 2.5 hours, whereas at 16 years of age, it was only 1.0 hours. Total sleep duration decreased across the studied cohorts (1974-1993) because of increasingly later bedtime but unchanged wake time across decades. Consolidation of nocturnal sleep occurred during the first 12 months after birth with a decreasing trend of daytime sleep. This resulted in a small increase of nighttime sleep duration by 1 year of age (mean 11.0 +/- 1.1 hours at 1 month to 11.7 +/- 1.0 hours at 1 year of age). The most prominent decline in napping habits occurred between 1.5 years of age (96.4% of all children) and 4 years of age (35.4%). Percentile curves provide valuable information on developmental course and age-specific variability of sleep duration for the health care professional who deals with sleep problems in pediatric practice.

Corrigendum to ‘Evidence for shock heating and constraints on Martian surface temperatures revealed by 40Ar/ 39Ar thermochronometry of Martian meteorites’ [Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta (2010) 6900–6920

DOE PAGES

Cassata, William S.; Shuster, David L.; Renne, Paul R.; ...

2014-10-23

Here, the authors regret they have discovered errors in Eq. (3) and in a spreadsheet used to calculate cosmogenic exposure ages shown in Table 1. Eq. (3) is missing a term. The spreadsheet errors concerned an incorrect cell reference and application of Eq. (3). Correction of these errors results in ~15–20% changes to the exposure ages of all samples, minor (generally <0.2%) changes to the radioisotopic ages of some samples (those that entailed a correction for chlorine-derived 38Ar calculated based on the exposure age; see Section 3.3), and statistically insignificant changes to the inferred trapped components identified through isochron analyses.more » These modifications have no impact on the modeling, discussions, or conclusions in the paper, nor do the changes to radioisotopic ages exceed the 1 sigma uncertainties.« less

Toward a model for improved targeting of aged at risk of institutionalization.

PubMed Central

Weissert, W G; Cready, C M

1989-01-01

A national sample of institutionalized and noninstitutionalized aged was created by merging the 1977 National Nursing Home Survey and its counterpart, the National Health Interview Survey for the same year. A weighted logistic regression analysis was conducted to identify factors that might be useful in calculating home- and community-based long-term care clients' risk of institutionalization. A model containing patient characteristics, nursing home bed supply, and a climate variable correctly classified 98.2 percent of cases residing in nursing homes or the community. Physical dependency, mental disorder and degenerative disease, lack of spouse, being white, poverty, old age, unoccupied nursing home beds, and climate all appear to be determinants of institutional residency among the aged. PMID:2807934

Applied Prevalence Ratio estimation with different Regression models: An example from a cross-national study on substance use research.

PubMed

Espelt, Albert; Marí-Dell'Olmo, Marc; Penelo, Eva; Bosque-Prous, Marina

2016-06-14

To examine the differences between Prevalence Ratio (PR) and Odds Ratio (OR) in a cross-sectional study and to provide tools to calculate PR using two statistical packages widely used in substance use research (STATA and R). We used cross-sectional data from 41,263 participants of 16 European countries participating in the Survey on Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE). The dependent variable, hazardous drinking, was calculated using the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test - Consumption (AUDIT-C). The main independent variable was gender. Other variables used were: age, educational level and country of residence. PR of hazardous drinking in men with relation to women was estimated using Mantel-Haenszel method, log-binomial regression models and poisson regression models with robust variance. These estimations were compared to the OR calculated using logistic regression models. Prevalence of hazardous drinkers varied among countries. Generally, men have higher prevalence of hazardous drinking than women [PR=1.43 (1.38-1.47)]. Estimated PR was identical independently of the method and the statistical package used. However, OR overestimated PR, depending on the prevalence of hazardous drinking in the country. In cross-sectional studies, where comparisons between countries with differences in the prevalence of the disease or condition are made, it is advisable to use PR instead of OR.

Including non-dietary sources into an exposure assessment of the European Food Safety Authority: The challenge of multi-sector chemicals such as Bisphenol A.

PubMed

von Goetz, N; Pirow, R; Hart, A; Bradley, E; Poças, F; Arcella, D; Lillegard, I T L; Simoneau, C; van Engelen, J; Husoy, T; Theobald, A; Leclercq, C

2017-04-01

In the most recent risk assessment for Bisphenol A for the first time a multi-route aggregate exposure assessment was conducted by the European Food Safety Authority. This assessment includes exposure via dietary sources, and also contributions of the most important non-dietary sources. Both average and high aggregate exposure were calculated by source-to-dose modeling (forward calculation) for different age groups and compared with estimates based on urinary biomonitoring data (backward calculation). The aggregate exposure estimates obtained by forward and backward modeling are in the same order of magnitude, with forward modeling yielding higher estimates associated with larger uncertainty. Yet, only forward modeling can indicate the relative contribution of different sources. Dietary exposure, especially via canned food, appears to be the most important exposure source and, based on the central aggregate exposure estimates, contributes around 90% to internal exposure to total (conjugated plus unconjugated) BPA. Dermal exposure via thermal paper and to a lesser extent via cosmetic products may contribute around 10% for some age groups. The uncertainty around these estimates is considerable, but since after dermal absorption a first-pass metabolism of BPA by conjugation is lacking, dermal sources may be of equal or even higher toxicological relevance than dietary sources. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Statistical averaging of marine magnetic anomalies and the aging of oceanic crust.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Blakely, R.J.

1983-01-01

Visual comparison of Mesozoic and Cenozoic magnetic anomalies in the North Pacific suggests that older anomalies contain less short-wavelength information than younger anomalies in this area. To test this observation, magnetic profiles from the North Pacific are examined from crust of three ages: 0-2.1, 29.3-33.1, and 64.9-70.3Ma. For each time period, at least nine profiles were analyzed by 1) calculating the power density spectrum of each profile, 2) averaging the spectra together, and 3) computing a 'recording filter' for each time period by assuming a hypothetical seafloor model. The model assumes that the top of the source is acoustic basement, the source thickness is 0.5km, and the time scale of geomagnetic reversals is according to Ness et al. (1980). The calculated power density spectra of the three recording filters are complex in shape but show an increase of attenuation of short-wavelength information as the crust ages. These results are interpreted using a multilayer model for marine magnetic anomalies in which the upper layer, corresponding to pillow basalt of seismic layer 2A, acts as a source of noise to the magnetic anomalies. As the ocean crust ages, this noisy contribution by the pillow basalts becomes less significant to the anomalies. Consequently, magnetic sources below layer 2A must be faithful recorders of geomagnetic reversals.-AuthorPacific power density spectrum

Sex-Specific Prediction Models for Sleep Apnea From the Hispanic Community Health Study/Study of Latinos.

PubMed

Shah, Neomi; Hanna, David B; Teng, Yanping; Sotres-Alvarez, Daniela; Hall, Martica; Loredo, Jose S; Zee, Phyllis; Kim, Mimi; Yaggi, H Klar; Redline, Susan; Kaplan, Robert C

2016-06-01

We developed and validated the first-ever sleep apnea (SA) risk calculator in a large population-based cohort of Hispanic/Latino subjects. Cross-sectional data on adults from the Hispanic Community Health Study/Study of Latinos (2008-2011) were analyzed. Subjective and objective sleep measurements were obtained. Clinically significant SA was defined as an apnea-hypopnea index ≥ 15 events per hour. Using logistic regression, four prediction models were created: three sex-specific models (female-only, male-only, and a sex × covariate interaction model to allow differential predictor effects), and one overall model with sex included as a main effect only. Models underwent 10-fold cross-validation and were assessed by using the C statistic. SA and its predictive variables; a total of 17 variables were considered. A total of 12,158 participants had complete sleep data available; 7,363 (61%) were women. The population-weighted prevalence of SA (apnea-hypopnea index ≥ 15 events per hour) was 6.1% in female subjects and 13.5% in male subjects. Male-only (C statistic, 0.808) and female-only (C statistic, 0.836) prediction models had the same predictor variables (ie, age, BMI, self-reported snoring). The sex-interaction model (C statistic, 0.836) contained sex, age, age × sex, BMI, BMI × sex, and self-reported snoring. The final overall model (C statistic, 0.832) contained age, BMI, snoring, and sex. We developed two websites for our SA risk calculator: one in English (https://www.montefiore.org/sleepapneariskcalc.html) and another in Spanish (http://www.montefiore.org/sleepapneariskcalc-es.html). We created an internally validated, highly discriminating, well-calibrated, and parsimonious prediction model for SA. Contrary to the study hypothesis, the variables did not have different predictive magnitudes in male and female subjects. Copyright © 2016 American College of Chest Physicians. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predictive values derived from lower wisdom teeth developmental stages on orthopantomograms to calculate the chronological age in adolescence and young adults as a prerequisite to obtain age-adjusted informed patient consent prior to elective surgical procedures in young patients with incomplete or mismatched personal data

PubMed Central

Friedrich, Reinhard E.; Schmidt, Kirsten; Treszl, András; Kersten, Jan F.

2016-01-01

Introduction: Surgical procedures require informed patient consent, which is mandatory prior to any procedure. These requirements apply in particular to elective surgical procedures. The communication with the patient about the procedure has to be comprehensive and based on mutual understanding. Furthermore, the informed consent has to take into account whether a patient is of legal age. As a result of large-scale migration, there are eventually patients planned for medical procedures, whose chronological age can’t be assessed reliably by physical inspection alone. Age determination based on assessing wisdom tooth development stages can be used to help determining whether individuals involved in medical procedures are of legal age, i.e., responsible and accountable. At present, the assessment of wisdom tooth developmental stages barely allows a crude estimate of an individual’s age. This study explores possibilities for more precise predictions of the age of individuals with emphasis on the legal age threshold of 18 years. Material and Methods: 1,900 dental orthopantomograms (female 938, male 962, age: 15–24 years), taken between the years 2000 and 2013 for diagnosis and treatment of diseases of the jaws, were evaluated. 1,895 orthopantomograms (female 935, male 960) of 1,804 patients (female 872, male 932) met the inclusion criteria. The archives of the Department of Diagnostic Radiology in Dentistry, University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf, and of an oral and maxillofacial office in Rostock, Germany, were used to collect a sufficient number of radiographs. An effort was made to achieve almost equal distribution of age categories in this study group; ‘age’ was given on a particular day. The radiological criteria of lower third molar investigation were: presence and extension of periodontal space, alveolar bone loss, emergence of tooth, and stage of tooth mineralization (according to Demirjian). Univariate and multivariate general linear models were calculated. Using hierarchical multivariate analyses a formula was derived quantifying the development of the four parameters of wisdom tooth over time. This model took repeated measurements of the same persons into account and is only applicable when a person is assessed a second time. The second approach investigates a linear regression model in order to predict the age. In a third approach, a classification and regression tree (CART) was developed to derive cut-off values for the four parameters, resulting in a classification with estimates for sensitivity and specificity. Results: No statistically significant differences were found between parameters related to wisdom tooth localization (right or left side). In univariate analyses being of legal age was associated with consecutive stages of wisdom tooth development, the obliteration of the periodontal space, and tooth emergence, as well with alveolar bone loss; no association was found with tooth mineralization. Multivariate models without repeated measurements revealed imprecise estimates because of the unknown individual-related variability. The precision of these models is thus not very good, although it improves with advancing age. When calculating a CART-analysis and a receiver operating characteristics – area under the curve of 78% was achieved; when maximizing both specificity and sensitivity, a Youden’s index of 47% was achieved (with 73% specificity and 74% sensitivity). Discussion: This study provides a basis to help determine whether a person is 18 years or older in individuals who are assumed to be between 15 and 24 years old. From repeated measurements, we found a linear effect of age on the four parameters in the individuals. However, this information can't be used for prognosis, because of the large intra-individual variability. Thus, although the development of the four parameters can be estimated over time, a direct conclusion with regard to age can’t be drawn from the parameters without previous biographic information about a person. While a single parameter is of limited value for calculating the target age of 18 years, combining several findings, that can be determined on a standard radiography, may potentially be a more reliable diagnostic tool for estimating the target age in both sexes. However, a high degree of precision can’t be achieved. The reason for persistent uncertainty lies in the wide chronological range of wisdom tooth development, which stretches from well below to above the 18th life year. The regression approach thus seems not optimal. Although sensitivity and specificity of the CART-model are moderately high, this model is still not reliable as a diagnostic tool. Our findings could have impact, e.g. on elective surgeries for young individuals with unknown biography. However, these results cannot replace social engagement, in particular thorough physical examination of patients and careful registration of their histories. Further studies on the use of this calculation method in different ethnic groups would be desirable. PMID:27975042

The optical properties of absorbing aerosols with fractal soot aggregates: Implications for aerosol remote sensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Tianhai; Gu, Xingfa; Wu, Yu; Chen, Hao; Yu, Tao

2013-08-01

Applying sphere aerosol models to replace the absorbing fine-sized dominated aerosols can potentially result in significant errors in the climate models and aerosol remote sensing retrieval. In this paper, the optical properties of absorbing fine-sized dominated aerosol were modeled, which are taking into account the fresh emitted soot particles (agglomerates of primary spherules), aged soot particles (semi-externally mixed with other weakly absorbing aerosols), and coarse aerosol particles (dust particles). The optical properties of the individual fresh and aged soot aggregates are calculated using the superposition T-matrix method. In order to quantify the morphology effect of absorbing aerosol models on the aerosol remote sensing retrieval, the ensemble averaged optical properties of absorbing fine-sized dominated aerosols are calculated based on the size distribution of fine aerosols (fresh and aged soot) and coarse aerosols. The corresponding optical properties of sphere absorbing aerosol models using Lorenz-Mie solutions were presented for comparison. The comparison study demonstrates that the sphere absorbing aerosol models underestimate the absorption ability of the fine-sized dominated aerosol particles. The morphology effect of absorbing fine-sized dominated aerosols on the TOA radiances and polarized radiances is also investigated. It is found that the sphere aerosol models overestimate the TOA reflectance and polarized reflectance by approximately a factor of 3 at wavelength of 0.865 μm. In other words, the fine-sized dominated aerosol models can cause large errors in the retrieved aerosol properties if satellite reflectance measurements are analyzed using the conventional Mie theory for spherical particles.

Potential effects of alpha-recoil on uranium-series dating of calcrete

USGS Publications Warehouse

Neymark, L.A.

2011-01-01

Evaluation of paleosol ages in the vicinity of Yucca Mountain, Nevada, at the time the site of a proposed high-level nuclear waste repository, is important for fault-displacement hazard assessment. Uranium-series isotope data were obtained for surface and subsurface calcrete samples from trenches and boreholes in Midway Valley, Nevada, adjacent to Yucca Mountain. 230Th/U ages of 33 surface samples range from 1.3 to 423 thousand years (ka) and the back-calculated 234U/238U initial activity ratios (AR) are relatively constant with a mean value of 1.54 ± 0.15 (1σ), which is consistent with the closed-system behavior. Subsurface calcrete samples are too old to be dated by the 230Th/U method. U-Pb data for post-pedogenic botryoidal opal from a subsurface calcrete sample show that these subsurface calcrete samples are older than ~ 1.65 million years (Ma), old enough to have attained secular equilibrium had their U-Th systems remained closed. However, subsurface calcrete samples show U-series disequilibrium indicating open-system behavior of 238U daughter isotopes, in contrast with the surface calcrete, where open-system behavior is not evident. Data for 21 subsurface calcrete samples yielded calculable 234U/238U model ages ranging from 130 to 1875 ka (assuming an initial AR of 1.54 ± 0.15, the mean value calculated for the surface calcrete samples). A simple model describing continuous α-recoil loss predicts that the 234U/238U and 230Th/238U ARs reach steady-state values ~ 2 Ma after calcrete formation. Potential effects of open-system behavior on 230Th/U ages and initial 234U/238U ARs for younger surface calcrete were estimated using data for old subsurface calcrete samples with the 234U loss and assuming that the total time of water-rock interaction is the only difference between these soils. The difference between the conventional closed-system and open-system ages may exceed errors of the calculated conventional ages for samples older than ~ 250 ka, but is negligible for younger soils.

Evolution of the lithosphere of the Hawaiian-Emperor seamount chain, Pacific Ocean, as inferred from geophysical data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verzhbitsky, E. V.; Kononov, M. V.; Byakov, A. F.; Dulub, V. P.

2006-12-01

The analysis of geological and geophysical data on the Hawaiian-Emperor seamount chain indicates that the commonly assumed origin of its lithosphere is inconsistent with the geothermal model of the oceanic-bottom formation. To reveal the nature of the Hawaiian-Emperor Ridge, the main tectonic units of the North Pacific were thoroughly analyzed and a map of geothermal data, magnetic anomalies, and bottom age in this region has been compiled. The subsidence rate of the lithosphere that was thermally rejuvenated by plume material after the passing of the Pacific plate over the Hawaiian hot spot was calculated with the aid of the bathymetric database for the World Ocean. The calculated parameters show that the lithosphere, which underwent thermal rejuvenation, subsides at a much lower rate than it spreads. The obtained empirical equation describes the abrupt uplifting and further subsidence of the oceanic floor during the passing of the Pacific Plate over the Hawaiian plume. The heat flow calculated in line with the thermophysical model of the thermally rejuvenated lithosphere is close to the heat flow measured at the surface of the Hawaiian-Emperor Seamounts. Thus, the proposed model is realistic. Paleogeodynamic reconstructions of the thermal regime during the formation of the Hawaiian-Emperor seamount chain were made in absolute coordinate system for the period 90-20 Ma on the basis of geological and geophysical data and the calculated distribution of bottom ages in the North Pacific.

Temporal correlation functions of concentration fluctuations: an anomalous case.

PubMed

Lubelski, Ariel; Klafter, Joseph

2008-10-09

We calculate, within the framework of the continuous time random walk (CTRW) model, multiparticle temporal correlation functions of concentration fluctuations (CCF) in systems that display anomalous subdiffusion. The subdiffusion stems from the nonstationary nature of the CTRW waiting times, which also lead to aging and ergodicity breaking. Due to aging, a system of diffusing particles tends to slow down as time progresses, and therefore, the temporal correlation functions strongly depend on the initial time of measurement. As a consequence, time averages of the CCF differ from ensemble averages, displaying therefore ergodicity breaking. We provide a simple example that demonstrates the difference between these two averages, a difference that might be amenable to experimental tests. We focus on the case of ensemble averaging and assume that the preparation time of the system coincides with the starting time of the measurement. Our analytical calculations are supported by computer simulations based on the CTRW model.

Age-Related Changes in Corneal Astigmatism.

PubMed

Shao, Xu; Zhou, Kai-Jing; Pan, An-Peng; Cheng, Xue-Ying; Cai, He-Xie; Huang, Jin-Hai; Yu, A-Yong

2017-10-01

To analyze the changes in corneal astigmatism as a function of age and develop a novel model to estimate corneal astigmatic change according to age. This was a cross-sectional study of right eyes of 3,769 individuals. Total corneal astigmatism, keratometric astigmatism, anterior corneal astigmatism, and posterior corneal astigmatism were measured by a Scheimpflug tomographer. Smoothing fitting curves of polar values of corneal astigmatism as a function of age were drawn and average changes in corneal astigmatism at different ages were calculated. Two turning points of age on total corneal astigmatism were 36 and 69 years. The average change of total corneal astigmatism toward against-the-rule astigmatism was 0.13 diopters (D)/10 years from 18 to 35 years, 0.45 D/10 years from 36 to 68 years, and decreased after 69 years, mainly caused by anterior corneal astigmatism. The mean magnitude of posterior corneal astigmatism was -0.33 D and exceeded 0.50 D in 14.27% of eyes. The vectorial difference between total corneal astigmatism and keratometric astigmatism was correlated with posterior corneal astigmatism, polar value of anterior corneal astigmatism, age, and corneal higher order aberrations (r = 0.636; standard partial regression coefficients were 0.479, -0.466, 0.282, and 0.196, respectively; all P < .001). Based on the non-linear model to estimate corneal astigmatic change with age, a formula was developed to calculate recommended correction of astigmatism according to age and astigmatic type. The rate of change of total corneal astigmatism showed a non-linear trend toward against-the-rule astigmatism, which was low at young and old age, high at middle age, and should be taken into account when performing surgery to correct astigmatism. [J Refract Surg. 2017;33(10):696-703.]. Copyright 2017, SLACK Incorporated.

Limits to randomness in paleobiologic models: the case of Phanerozoic species diversity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sepkoski, J. J. Jr; Sepkoski JJ, J. r. (Principal Investigator)

1994-01-01

The question of how random, or unconstrained, paleobiologic models should be is examined with a case study: Signor's (1982, 1985) inverse calculation of levels of marine species diversity through the Phanerozoic. His calculation involved an ingenious model that estimated species numbers and species abundances in the world oceans of the past by correcting known numbers of fossil species for variations in sedimentary rocks available for sampling and in effort paleontologists might devote to sampling. The model proves robust to changes in possible shapes of species-abundance distributions, but it is sensitive to alterations in the assumption that paleontologists collect fossils at random. If it is assumed that ease of collecting varies with age of sediment (with the Cenozoic offering easy sampling) or that paleontologists tend to seek out rarer fossils, results of the inverse calculation change. In particular, the magnitude of the calculated Cenozoic diversity increase always declines from the factor of about seven as originally reported to something considerably smaller. This leaves open the problem of the magnitude of Cenozoic increase in marine species diversity, awaiting better empirical data and, perhaps, more exacting models, random or otherwise.

Predictors and prevalence of successful aging among older Malaysians.

PubMed

Hamid, Tengku Aizan; Momtaz, Yadollah Abolfathi; Ibrahim, Rahimah

2012-01-01

Successful aging is an important and worldwide concept in gerontology. However, until recently, there has been very little known about successful aging in Malaysia. This study was designed to describe the prevalence and correlates of successful aging among older Malaysians. Data for this study were obtained from the national survey 'The Mental Health and Quality of Life of Older Malaysians'. For this study, successful aging was defined based on a multidimensional model, encompassing the avoidance of chronic disease and physical functioning difficulty, and maintenance of good psychocognitive functioning. The prevalence of successful aging among older Malaysians was calculated at 13.8% (CI: 12.6-15.1). Results of multiple logistic regression analysis showed that age, educational attainment, household income, and ethnicity were significantly associated with successful aging. Results of this study show that successful agers were more likely to be among the younger age, ethnic Chinese, and those with a higher education level and household income, after adjusting for all other variables in the model. Copyright © 2011 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Development of growth and yield models for southern hardwoods: site index determinations

Treesearch

John Paul McTague; Daniel J. Robison; David O' Loughlin; Joseph Roise; Robert Kellison

2006-01-01

Growth and yield data from across 13 southern States, collected from 1967 to 2004 from fully-stocked even-aged southern hardwood forests on a variety of site types, was used to calculate site index curves. These derived curves provide an efficient means to evaluate the productivity-age relation which varies across many sites. These curves were derived for mixed-species...

Evaluation and clinical significance of the stomach age model for evaluating aging of the stomach-a multicenter study in China

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background A higher prevalence of chronic atrophic gastritis (CAG) occurs in younger adults in Asia. We used Stomach Age to examine the different mechanisms of CAG between younger adults and elderly individuals, and established a simple model of cancer risk that can be applied to CAG surveillance. Methods Stomach Age was determined by FISH examination of telomere length in stomach biopsies. Δψm was also determined by flow cytometry. Sixty volunteers were used to confirm the linear relationship between telomere length and age while 120 subjects were used to build a mathematical model by a multivariate analysis. Overall, 146 subjects were used to evaluate the validity of the model, and 1,007 subjects were used to evaluate the relationship between prognosis and Δage (calculated from the mathematical model). ROC curves were used to evaluate the relationship between prognosis and Δage and to determine the cut-off point for Δage. Results We established that a tight linear relationship between the telomere length and the age. The telomere length was obvious different between patients with and without CAG even in the same age. Δψm decreased in individuals whose Stomach Age was greater than real age, especially in younger adults. A mathematical model of Stomach Age (real age + Δage) was successfully constructed which was easy to apply in clinical work. A higher Δage was correlated with a worse outcome. The criterion of Δage >3.11 should be considered as the cut-off to select the subgroup of patients who require endoscopic surveillance. Conclusion Variation in Stomach Age between individuals of the same biological age was confirmed. Attention should be paid to those with a greater Stomach Age, especially in younger adults. The Δage in the Simple Model can be used as a criterion to select CAG patients for gastric cancer surveillance. PMID:25057261

Optimization models for degrouping population data.

PubMed

Bermúdez, Silvia; Blanquero, Rafael

2016-07-01

In certain countries population data are available in grouped form only, usually as quinquennial age groups plus a large open-ended range for the elderly. However, official statistics call for data by individual age since many statistical operations, such as the calculation of demographic indicators, require the use of ungrouped population data. In this paper a number of mathematical models are proposed which, starting from population data given in age groups, enable these ranges to be degrouped into age-specific population values without leaving a fractional part. Unlike other existing procedures for disaggregating demographic data, ours makes it possible to process several years' data simultaneously in a coherent way, and provides accurate results longitudinally as well as transversally. This procedure is also shown to be helpful in dealing with degrouped population data affected by noise, such as those affected by the age-heaping phenomenon.

Effect of Aging on Tongue Protrusion Forces in Rats

PubMed Central

Nagai, Hiromi; Russell, John A.; Jackson, Michelle A.

2010-01-01

The purpose of this study was to ascertain the effect of aging on muscle contractile properties associated with tongue protrusion in a rat model. Fischer 344/Brown Norway hybrid rats, ten young (9 months old) and ten old (32 months old), were used to measure protrusive contractile properties. Results showed a significant reduction in tetanic forces in the old animals. The following measures of muscle contraction were not different between age groups: mean twitch contraction force, twitch contraction time, twitch contraction half-decay time, and a calculated measure of fatigability. In conclusion, aging influenced protrusive tongue muscle contractions in a rat model such that tetanic forces were reduced. The reduction of tetanus force may parallel findings in human subjects relative to isometric tongue force generation and may be associated with age-related disorders of swallowing. PMID:17694408

A Kidney Graft Survival Calculator that Accounts for Mismatches in Age, Sex, HLA, and Body Size.

PubMed

Ashby, Valarie B; Leichtman, Alan B; Rees, Michael A; Song, Peter X-K; Bray, Mathieu; Wang, Wen; Kalbfleisch, John D

2017-07-07

Outcomes for transplants from living unrelated donors are of particular interest in kidney paired donation (KPD) programs where exchanges can be arranged between incompatible donor-recipient pairs or chains created from nondirected/altruistic donors. Using Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients data, we analyzed 232,705 recipients of kidney-alone transplants from 1998 to 2012. Graft failure rates were estimated using Cox models for recipients of kidney transplants from living unrelated, living related, and deceased donors. Models were adjusted for year of transplant and donor and recipient characteristics, with particular attention to mismatches in age, sex, human leukocyte antigens (HLA), body size, and weight. The dependence of graft failure on increasing donor age was less pronounced for living-donor than for deceased-donor transplants. Male donor-to-male recipient transplants had lower graft failure, particularly better than female to male (5%-13% lower risk). HLA mismatch was important in all donor types. Obesity of both the recipient (8%-18% higher risk) and donor (5%-11% higher risk) was associated with higher graft loss, as were donor-recipient weight ratios of <75%, compared with transplants where both parties were of similar weight (9%-12% higher risk). These models are used to create a calculator of estimated graft survival for living donors. This calculator provides useful information to donors, candidates, and physicians of estimated outcomes and potentially in allowing candidates to choose among several living donors. It may also help inform candidates with compatible donors on the advisability of joining a KPD program. Copyright © 2017 by the American Society of Nephrology.

Stress and Damage in Polymer Matrix Composite Materials Due to Material Degradation at High Temperatures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McManus, Hugh L.; Chamis, Christos C.

1996-01-01

This report describes analytical methods for calculating stresses and damage caused by degradation of the matrix constituent in polymer matrix composite materials. Laminate geometry, material properties, and matrix degradation states are specified as functions of position and time. Matrix shrinkage and property changes are modeled as functions of the degradation states. The model is incorporated into an existing composite mechanics computer code. Stresses, strains, and deformations at the laminate, ply, and micro levels are calculated, and from these calculations it is determined if there is failure of any kind. The rationale for the model (based on published experimental work) is presented, its integration into the laminate analysis code is outlined, and example results are given, with comparisons to existing material and structural data. The mechanisms behind the changes in properties and in surface cracking during long-term aging of polyimide matrix composites are clarified. High-temperature-material test methods are also evaluated.

Establishing age-associated normative ranges of the cerebral 18F-FDG uptake ratio in children.

PubMed

Hua, Chiaho; Merchant, Thomas E; Li, Xingyu; Li, Yimei; Shulkin, Barry L

2015-04-01

In this study, we reported age-associated ranges of the regional cerebral (18)F-FDG uptake ratio in pediatric patients as a surrogate to normative data from healthy children. (18)F-FDG PET scans of 132 children and adolescents (age, 1-20 y) with non-central nervous system-related diseases and normal-appearing tracer distributions in the brain were retrospectively analyzed. PET images of individual patients were warped to a 3-dimensional reference template. Uptake ratio was calculated for 63 anatomic regions by normalizing the regional count per voxel with the average count per voxel in all regions. Models of regional uptake ratio as a function of age and sex were developed to calculate the 95% prediction interval. The paracentral lobule and cuneus had the highest resting metabolic state among all gray matter regions, whereas the brain stem, uncus, and hippocampus had the lowest uptake. A large left-right asymmetry was present in the angular gyrus and inferior occipital gyrus. Quantitative data of the regression, 95% confidence interval, and 95% prediction interval for each age were summarized for the 63 regions. In 52 of 63 regions, the (18)F-FDG uptake ratio had a significant age effect. The linear model was optimal for 12 regions, whereas the spline model with 1 age knot was a better fit for 40 regions. In children younger than 5 y, frontal and temporal lobes had a lower uptake than parietal and occipital lobes in general. However, uptake in the frontal lobe continued to increase with age but it decreased in the parietal and occipital lobes. Anatomic regions of the brain in children and adolescents exhibited uniquely different (18)F-FDG uptake trends with age. Our results may be useful for studying childhood development and possibly regional metabolic defects in children with traumatic brain injury or central nervous system disorders or children receiving cancer treatment. © 2015 by the Society of Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging, Inc.

Age-specific inhalation radiation dose commitment factors for selected radionuclides

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Strenge, D.L.; Peloquin, R.A.; Baker, D.A.

Inhalation dose commitment factors are presented for selected radionuclides for exposure of individuals in four age groups: infant, child, teen and adult. Radionuclides considered are /sup 35/S, /sup 36/Cl, /sup 45/Ca, /sup 67/Ga, /sup 75/Se, /sup 85/Sr, /sup 109/Cd, /sup 113/Sn, /sup 125/I, /sup 133/Ba, /sup 170/Tm, /sup 169/Yb, /sup 182/Ta, /sup 192/Ir, /sup 198/Au, /sup 201/Tl, /sup 204/Tl, and /sup 236/Pu. The calculational method is based on the human metabolic model of ICRP as defined in Publication 2 (ICRP 1959) and as used in previous age-specific dose factor calculations by Hoenes and Soldat (1977). Dose commitment factors are presentedmore » for the following organs of reference: total body, bone, liver, kidney, thyroid, lung and lower large intestine.« less

Age-dependent biochemical quantities: an approach for calculating reference intervals.

PubMed

Bjerner, J

2007-01-01

A parametric method is often preferred when calculating reference intervals for biochemical quantities, as non-parametric methods are less efficient and require more observations/study subjects. Parametric methods are complicated, however, because of three commonly encountered features. First, biochemical quantities seldom display a Gaussian distribution, and there must either be a transformation procedure to obtain such a distribution or a more complex distribution has to be used. Second, biochemical quantities are often dependent on a continuous covariate, exemplified by rising serum concentrations of MUC1 (episialin, CA15.3) with increasing age. Third, outliers often exert substantial influence on parametric estimations and therefore need to be excluded before calculations are made. The International Federation of Clinical Chemistry (IFCC) currently recommends that confidence intervals be calculated for the reference centiles obtained. However, common statistical packages allowing for the adjustment of a continuous covariate do not make this calculation. In the method described in the current study, Tukey's fence is used to eliminate outliers and two-stage transformations (modulus-exponential-normal) in order to render Gaussian distributions. Fractional polynomials are employed to model functions for mean and standard deviations dependent on a covariate, and the model is selected by maximum likelihood. Confidence intervals are calculated for the fitted centiles by combining parameter estimation and sampling uncertainties. Finally, the elimination of outliers was made dependent on covariates by reiteration. Though a good knowledge of statistical theory is needed when performing the analysis, the current method is rewarding because the results are of practical use in patient care.

A Semiempirical Model for Sigma-Phase Precipitation in Duplex and Superduplex Stainless Steels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferro, P.; Bonollo, F.

2012-04-01

Sigma phase is known to reduce the mechanical properties and corrosion resistance of duplex and superduplex stainless steels. Therefore, heat treatments and welding must be carefully performed so as to avoid the appearance of such a detrimental phase, and clearly, models suitable to faithfully predict σ-phase precipitation are very useful tools. Most fully analytical models are based on thermodynamic calculations whose agreement with experimental results is not always good, so that such models should be used for qualitative purposes only. Alternatively, it is possible to exploit semiempirical models, where time-temperature-transformation (TTT) diagrams are empirically determined for a given alloy and the continuous-cooling-transformation (CCT) diagram is calculated from the TTT diagram. In this work, a semiempirical model for σ-phase precipitation in duplex and superduplex stainless steels, under both isothermal and unisothermal conditions, is proposed. Model parameters are calculated from empirical data and CCT diagrams are obtained by means of the additivity rule, whereas experimental measurements for model validation are taken from the literature. This model gives a satisfactory estimation of σ-phase precipitates during both isothermal aging and the continuous cooling process.

[Reevaluation of the time course of the effect of propofol described with the Schnider pharmacokinetic model].

PubMed

Sepúlveda, P O; Mora, X

2012-12-01

The first order plasma-effect-site equilibration rate constant (k(e0)) links the pharmacokinetics (PK) and pharmacodynamics (PD) of a given drug. This constant, calculated for each specific PK drug model, allowed us to predict the course of the effect in a target controlled infusion (TCI). The PK-PD model of propofol, published by Schnider et al., calculated a k(e0) value of 0.456min(-1) and a corresponding time to peak effect (t peak) of 1.6min. The aim of this study was to reevaluate the k(e0) value for the predicted Schnider model of propofol, with data from a complete effect curve obtained by monitoring the bispectral index (BIS). The study included 35 healthy adult patients (18-90 years) scheduled for elective surgery with standard monitoring and using the BIS XP(®) (Aspect), and who received a propofol infusion to reach a plasma target of 12 μg/ml in 4min. The infusion was then stopped, obtaining a complete effect curve when the patient woke up. The Anestfusor™ (University of Chile) software was used to control the infusion pumps, calculate the plasma concentration plotted by Schnider PK model, and to store the BIS data every second. Loss (LOC) and recovery (ROC) of consciousness was assessed and recorded. Using a traditional parametric method using the "k(e0) Objective function" of the PK-PD tools for Excel, the individual and population k(e0) was calculated. Predictive Smith tests (Pk) and Student t test were used for statistical analysis. A P<.05 indicated significance. The evaluation included 21 male and 14 female patients (18 to 90 years). We obtained 1,001 (±182) EEG data and the corresponding calculated plasma concentration for each case. The population k(e0) obtained was 0.144min(-1) (SD±0.048), very different from the original model (P<.001). This value corresponds with a t peak of 2.45min. The predictive performance (Pk) for the new model was 0.9 (SD±0.03), but only 0.78 (SD±0.06) for the original (P<.001). With a baseline BIS of 95.8 (SD±2.34), the BIS at LOC was 77.48 (SD±9.6) and 74.65(SD±6.3) at ROC (P=.027). The calculated Ce in the original model at LOC and ROC were 5.9 (SD±1.35)/1.08 μg/ml (SD±0.32) (P<.001), respectively, and 2.3 (SD±0.63)/2.0 μg/ml (SD±0.65) (NS) for the new model. The values between LOC/ROC were significantly different between the 2 models (P<.001). No differences in k(e0) value were found between males and females, but in the new model the k(e0) was affected by age as a covariable (0.26-[age×0.0022]) (P<.05). The dynamic relationship between propofol plasma concentrations predicted by Schnider's pharmacokinetic model and its hypnotic effect measured with BIS was better characterized with a smaller k(e0) value (slower t½k(e0)) than that present in the original model, with an age effect also not described before. Copyright © 2011 Sociedad Española de Anestesiología, Reanimación y Terapéutica del Dolor. Published by Elsevier España. All rights reserved.

Effect of Potamogeton crispus L. on bioavailability and biodegradation activity of pyrene in aged and unaged sediments.

PubMed

Meng, Fanbo; Chi, Jie

2017-02-15

In order to clarify the effect of Potamogeton crispus L. (P. crispus) on bioavailability and biodegradation activity of pyrene in aged and unaged sediments, model calculation based on experimental results was carried out. During a 36-day experiment, the dissipation ratio of pyrene was increased by planting but decreased by aging. P. crispus improved the dissipation more significantly in aged sediments (45.9%) than in unaged sediments (17.6%). Results derived from a two-compartment desorption model showed that the decrease of rapidly desorbing fraction of pyrene was in the order of aged sediments without plant (A)>unaged sediments without plant (U)>unaged sediments with plant (UP)>aged sediments with plant (AP). Moreover, the results of biodegradation kinetic model showed that the first-order biodegradation coefficient was in the order of AP>UP>U and A, which was consistent with that of sediment redox potential. These modeling results indicated that planting could enhance the bioavailability (73.9%) and biodegradation activity (277%) of pyrene more significantly in aged sediments as compared to unaged sediments (13.1% and 150%, respectively), which should be the key reasons leading to more significant dissipation increment of pyrene in aged sediments by P. crispus. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Forensic age estimation based on development of third molars: a staging technique for magnetic resonance imaging.

PubMed

De Tobel, J; Phlypo, I; Fieuws, S; Politis, C; Verstraete, K L; Thevissen, P W

2017-12-01

The development of third molars can be evaluated with medical imaging to estimate age in subadults. The appearance of third molars on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) differs greatly from that on radiographs. Therefore a specific staging technique is necessary to classify third molar development on MRI and to apply it for age estimation. To develop a specific staging technique to register third molar development on MRI and to evaluate its performance for age estimation in subadults. Using 3T MRI in three planes, all third molars were evaluated in 309 healthy Caucasian participants from 14 to 26 years old. According to the appearance of the developing third molars on MRI, descriptive criteria and schematic representations were established to define a specific staging technique. Two observers, with different levels of experience, staged all third molars independently with the developed technique. Intra- and inter-observer agreement were calculated. The data were imported in a Bayesian model for age estimation as described by Fieuws et al. (2016). This approach adequately handles correlation between age indicators and missing age indicators. It was used to calculate a point estimate and a prediction interval of the estimated age. Observed age minus predicted age was calculated, reflecting the error of the estimate. One-hundred and sixty-six third molars were agenetic. Five percent (51/1096) of upper third molars and 7% (70/1044) of lower third molars were not assessable. Kappa for inter-observer agreement ranged from 0.76 to 0.80. For intra-observer agreement kappa ranged from 0.80 to 0.89. However, two stage differences between observers or between staging sessions occurred in up to 2.2% (20/899) of assessments, probably due to a learning effect. Using the Bayesian model for age estimation, a mean absolute error of 2.0 years in females and 1.7 years in males was obtained. Root mean squared error equalled 2.38 years and 2.06 years respectively. The performance to discern minors from adults was better for males than for females, with specificities of 96% and 73% respectively. Age estimations based on the proposed staging method for third molars on MRI showed comparable reproducibility and performance as the established methods based on radiographs.

The fascicular anatomy and peak force capabilities of the sternocleidomastoid muscle.

PubMed

Kennedy, Ewan; Albert, Michael; Nicholson, Helen

2017-06-01

The fascicular morphology of the sternocleidomastoid (SCM) is not well described in modern anatomical texts, and the biomechanical forces it exerts on individual cervical motion segments are not known. The purpose of this study is to investigate the fascicular anatomy and peak force capabilities of the SCM combining traditional dissection and modern imaging. This study is comprised of three parts: Dissection, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and biomechanical modelling. Dissection was performed on six embalmed cadavers: three males of age 73-74 years and three females of age 63-93 years. The fascicular arrangement and morphologic data were recorded. MRIs were performed on six young, healthy volunteers: three males of age 24-37 and three females of age 26-28. In vivo volumes of the SCM were calculated using the Cavalieri method. Modelling of the SCM was performed on five sets of computed tomography (CT) scans. This mapped the fascicular arrangement of the SCM with relation to the cervical motion segments, and used volume data from the MRIs to calculate realistic peak force capabilities. Dissection showed the SCM has four parts; sterno-mastoid, sterno-occipital, cleido-mastoid and cleido-occipital portions. Force modelling shows that peak torque capacity of the SCM is higher at lower cervical levels, and minimal at higher levels. Peak shear forces are higher in the lower cervical spine, while compression is consistent throughout. The four-part SCM is capable of producing forces that vary across the cervical motion segments. The implications of these findings are discussed with reference to models of neck muscle function and dysfunction.

The Relationship of Loss, Mean Age of Air and the Distribution of CFC's to Stratospheric Circulation and Implications for Atmospheric Lifetimes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Douglas, A. R.; Stolarski, R. S.; Schoeberl, M. R.; Jackman, C. H.; Gupta, M. L.; Newman, P. A.; Nielsen, J. E.; Fleming, E. L.

2008-01-01

Model-derived estimates of the annually integrated destruction and lifetime for various ozone depleting substances (ODSs) depend on the simulated stratospheric transport and mixing in the global model used to produce the estimate. Observations in the middle and high latitude lower stratosphere show that the mean age of an air parcel (i.e., the time since its stratospheric entry) is related to the fractional release for the ODs (i.e., the amount of the ODS that has been destroyed relative to the amount at the time of stratospheric entry). We use back trajectory calculations to produce an age spectrum, and explain the relationship between the mean age and the fractional release by showing that older elements in the age spectrum have experienced higher altitudes and greater ODs destruction than younger elements. In our study, models with faster circulations produce distributions for the age-of-air that are 'young' compared to a distribution derived from observations. These models also fail to reproduce the observed relationship between the mean age of air and the fractional release. Models with slower circulations produce both realistic distributions for mean age and a realistic relationship between mean age and fractional release. These models also produce a CFCl3 lifetime of approximately 56 years, longer than the 45 year lifetime used to project future mixing ratios. We find that the use of flux boundary conditions in assessment models would have several advantages, including consistency between ODS evolution and simulated loss even if the simulated residual circulation changes due to climate change.

Cost-effectiveness of Wait Time Reduction for Intensive Behavioral Intervention Services in Ontario, Canada.

PubMed

Piccininni, Caroline; Bisnaire, Lise; Penner, Melanie

2017-01-01

Earlier access to intensive behavioral intervention (IBI) is associated with improved outcomes for children with severe autism spectrum disorder (ASD); however, there are long waiting times for this program. No analyses have been performed modeling the cost-effectiveness of wait time reduction for IBI. To model the starting age for IBI with reduced wait time (RWT) (by half) and eliminated wait time (EWT), and perform a cost-effectiveness analysis comparing RWT and EWT with current wait time (CWT) from government and societal perspectives. Published waiting times were used to model the mean starting age for IBI for CWT, RWT, and EWT in children diagnosed with severe ASD who were treated at Ontario's Autism Intervention Program. Inputs were loaded into a decision analytic model, with an annual discount rate of 3% applied. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were determined. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to assess the effect of model uncertainty. We used data from the year 2012 (January 1 through December 31) provided from the Children's Hospital of Eastern Ontario IBI center for the starting ages. Data analysis was done from May through July 2015. The outcome was independence measured in dependency-free life-years (DFLYs) to 65 years of age. To derive this, expected IQ was modeled based on probability of early (age <4 years) or late (age ≥4 years) access to IBI. Probabilities of having an IQ in the normal (≥70) or intellectual disability (<70) range were calculated. The IQ strata were assigned probabilities of achieving an independent (60 DFLYs), semidependent (30 DFLYs), or dependent (0 DFLYs) outcome. Costs were calculated for provincial government and societal perspectives in Canadian dollars (Can$1 = US$0.78). The mean starting ages for IBI were 5.24 years for CWT, 3.89 years for RWT, and 2.71 years for EWT. From the provincial government perspective, EWT was the dominant strategy, generating the most DFLYs for Can$53 000 less per individual to 65 years of age than CWT. From the societal perspective, EWT produced lifetime savings of Can$267 000 per individual compared with CWT. The ICERs were most sensitive to uncertainty in the starting age for IBI and in achieving a normal IQ based on starting age. This study predicts the long-term effect of the current disparity between IBI service needs and the amount of IBI being delivered in the province of Ontario. The results suggest that providing timely access optimizes IBI outcomes, improves future independence, and lessens costs from provincial and societal perspectives.

A novel statistical approach shows evidence for multi-system physiological dysregulation during aging.

PubMed

Cohen, Alan A; Milot, Emmanuel; Yong, Jian; Seplaki, Christopher L; Fülöp, Tamàs; Bandeen-Roche, Karen; Fried, Linda P

2013-03-01

Previous studies have identified many biomarkers that are associated with aging and related outcomes, but the relevance of these markers for underlying processes and their relationship to hypothesized systemic dysregulation is not clear. We address this gap by presenting a novel method for measuring dysregulation via the joint distribution of multiple biomarkers and assessing associations of dysregulation with age and mortality. Using longitudinal data from the Women's Health and Aging Study, we selected a 14-marker subset from 63 blood measures: those that diverged from the baseline population mean with age. For the 14 markers and all combinatorial sub-subsets we calculated a multivariate distance called the Mahalanobis distance (MHBD) for all observations, indicating how "strange" each individual's biomarker profile was relative to the baseline population mean. In most models, MHBD correlated positively with age, MHBD increased within individuals over time, and higher MHBD predicted higher risk of subsequent mortality. Predictive power increased as more variables were incorporated into the calculation of MHBD. Biomarkers from multiple systems were implicated. These results support hypotheses of simultaneous dysregulation in multiple systems and confirm the need for longitudinal, multivariate approaches to understanding biomarkers in aging. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Marine reservoir age variability and water mass distribution in the Iceland Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eiríksson, Jón; Larsen, Gudrún; Knudsen, Karen Luise; Heinemeier, Jan; Símonarson, Leifur A.

2004-11-01

Lateglacial and Holocene tephra markers from Icelandic source volcanoes have been identified in five sediment cores from the North Icelandic shelf and correlated with tephra layers in reference soil sections in North Iceland and the GRIP ice core. Land-sea correlation of tephra markers, that have been radiocarbon dated with terrestrial material or dated by documentary evidence, provides a tool for monitoring reservoir age variability in the region. Age models developed for the shelf sediments north of Iceland, based on offshore tephrochronology on one hand and on calibrated AMS 14C datings of marine molluscs on the other, display major deviations during the last 4500 years. The inferred temporal variability in the reservoir age of the regional water masses exceeds by far the variability expected from the marine model calculations. The observed reservoir ages are generally considerably higher, by up to 450 years, than the standard model ocean. It is postulated that the intervals with increased and variable marine reservoir age reflect incursions of Arctic water masses derived from the East Greenland Current to the Iceland Sea and the North Icelandic shelf.

Adjustable internal structure for reconstructing gradient index profile of crystalline lens.

PubMed

Bahrami, Mehdi; Goncharov, Alexander V; Pierscionek, Barbara K

2014-03-01

Employing advanced technologies in studying the crystalline lens of the eye has improved our understanding of the refractive index gradient of the lens. Reconstructing and studying such a complex structure requires models with adaptable internal geometry that can be altered to simulate geometrical and optical changes of the lens with aging. In this Letter, we introduce an optically well-defined, geometrical structure for modeling the gradient refractive index profile of the crystalline lens with the advantage of an adjustable internal structure that is not available with existing models. The refractive index profile assigned to this rotationally symmetric geometry is calculated numerically, yet it is shown that this does not limit the model. The study provides a basis for developing lens models with sophisticated external and internal structures without the need for analytical solutions to calculate refractive index profiles.

Individual risk of cutaneous melanoma in New Zealand: developing a clinical prediction aid.

PubMed

Sneyd, Mary Jane; Cameron, Claire; Cox, Brian

2014-05-22

New Zealand and Australia have the highest melanoma incidence rates worldwide. In New Zealand, both the incidence and thickness have been increasing. Clinical decisions require accurate risk prediction but a simple list of genetic, phenotypic and behavioural risk factors is inadequate to estimate individual risk as the risk factors for melanoma have complex interactions. In order to offer tailored clinical management strategies, we developed a New Zealand prediction model to estimate individual 5-year absolute risk of melanoma. A population-based case-control study (368 cases and 270 controls) of melanoma risk factors provided estimates of relative risks for fair-skinned New Zealanders aged 20-79 years. Model selection techniques and multivariate logistic regression were used to determine the important predictors. The relative risks for predictors were combined with baseline melanoma incidence rates and non-melanoma mortality rates to calculate individual probabilities of developing melanoma within 5 years. For women, the best model included skin colour, number of moles > =5 mm on the right arm, having a 1st degree relative with large moles, and a personal history of non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC). The model correctly classified 68% of participants; the C-statistic was 0.74. For men, the best model included age, place of occupation up to age 18 years, number of moles > =5 mm on the right arm, birthplace, and a history of NMSC. The model correctly classified 67% of cases; the C-statistic was 0.71. We have developed the first New Zealand risk prediction model that calculates individual absolute 5-year risk of melanoma. This model will aid physicians to identify individuals at high risk, allowing them to individually target surveillance and other management strategies, and thereby reduce the high melanoma burden in New Zealand.

Accelerated Brain Aging in Schizophrenia: A Longitudinal Pattern Recognition Study.

PubMed

Schnack, Hugo G; van Haren, Neeltje E M; Nieuwenhuis, Mireille; Hulshoff Pol, Hilleke E; Cahn, Wiepke; Kahn, René S

2016-06-01

Despite the multitude of longitudinal neuroimaging studies that have been published, a basic question on the progressive brain loss in schizophrenia remains unaddressed: Does it reflect accelerated aging of the brain, or is it caused by a fundamentally different process? The authors used support vector regression, a supervised machine learning technique, to address this question. In a longitudinal sample of 341 schizophrenia patients and 386 healthy subjects with one or more structural MRI scans (1,197 in total), machine learning algorithms were used to build models to predict the age of the brain and the presence of schizophrenia ("schizophrenia score"), based on the gray matter density maps. Age at baseline ranged from 16 to 67 years, and follow-up scans were acquired between 1 and 13 years after the baseline scan. Differences between brain age and chronological age ("brain age gap") and between schizophrenia score and healthy reference score ("schizophrenia gap") were calculated. Accelerated brain aging was calculated from changes in brain age gap between two consecutive measurements. The age prediction model was validated in an independent sample. In schizophrenia patients, brain age was significantly greater than chronological age at baseline (+3.36 years) and progressively increased during follow-up (+1.24 years in addition to the baseline gap). The acceleration of brain aging was not constant: it decreased from 2.5 years/year just after illness onset to about the normal rate (1 year/year) approximately 5 years after illness onset. The schizophrenia gap also increased during follow-up, but more pronounced variability in brain abnormalities at follow-up rendered this increase nonsignificant. The progressive brain loss in schizophrenia appears to reflect two different processes: one relatively homogeneous, reflecting accelerated aging of the brain and related to various measures of outcome, and a more variable one, possibly reflecting individual variation and medication use. Differentiating between these two processes may not only elucidate the various factors influencing brain loss in schizophrenia, but also assist in individualizing treatment.

Quantifying Parkinson's disease finger-tapping severity by extracting and synthesizing finger motion properties.

PubMed

Sano, Yuko; Kandori, Akihiko; Shima, Keisuke; Yamaguchi, Yuki; Tsuji, Toshio; Noda, Masafumi; Higashikawa, Fumiko; Yokoe, Masaru; Sakoda, Saburo

2016-06-01

We propose a novel index of Parkinson's disease (PD) finger-tapping severity, called "PDFTsi," for quantifying the severity of symptoms related to the finger tapping of PD patients with high accuracy. To validate the efficacy of PDFTsi, the finger-tapping movements of normal controls and PD patients were measured by using magnetic sensors, and 21 characteristics were extracted from the finger-tapping waveforms. To distinguish motor deterioration due to PD from that due to aging, the aging effect on finger tapping was removed from these characteristics. Principal component analysis (PCA) was applied to the age-normalized characteristics, and principal components that represented the motion properties of finger tapping were calculated. Multiple linear regression (MLR) with stepwise variable selection was applied to the principal components, and PDFTsi was calculated. The calculated PDFTsi indicates that PDFTsi has a high estimation ability, namely a mean square error of 0.45. The estimation ability of PDFTsi is higher than that of the alternative method, MLR with stepwise regression selection without PCA, namely a mean square error of 1.30. This result suggests that PDFTsi can quantify PD finger-tapping severity accurately. Furthermore, the result of interpreting a model for calculating PDFTsi indicated that motion wideness and rhythm disorder are important for estimating PD finger-tapping severity.

Development and Validation of an Older Occupant Finite Element Model of a Mid-Sized Male for Investigation of Age-related Injury Risk.

PubMed

Schoell, Samantha L; Weaver, Ashley A; Urban, Jillian E; Jones, Derek A; Stitzel, Joel D; Hwang, Eunjoo; Reed, Matthew P; Rupp, Jonathan D; Hu, Jingwen

2015-11-01

The aging population is a growing concern as the increased fragility and frailty of the elderly results in an elevated incidence of injury as well as an increased risk of mortality and morbidity. To assess elderly injury risk, age-specific computational models can be developed to directly calculate biomechanical metrics for injury. The first objective was to develop an older occupant Global Human Body Models Consortium (GHBMC) average male model (M50) representative of a 65 year old (YO) and to perform regional validation tests to investigate predicted fractures and injury severity with age. Development of the GHBMC M50 65 YO model involved implementing geometric, cortical thickness, and material property changes with age. Regional validation tests included a chest impact, a lateral impact, a shoulder impact, a thoracoabdominal impact, an abdominal bar impact, a pelvic impact, and a lateral sled test. The second objective was to investigate age-related injury risks by performing a frontal US NCAP simulation test with the GHBMC M50 65 YO and the GHBMC M50 v4.2 models. Simulation results were compared to the GHBMC M50 v4.2 to evaluate the effect of age on occupant response and risk for head injury, neck injury, thoracic injury, and lower extremity injury. Overall, the GHBMC M50 65 YO model predicted higher probabilities of AIS 3+ injury for the head and thorax.

A web-based normative calculator for the uniform data set (UDS) neuropsychological test battery.

PubMed

Shirk, Steven D; Mitchell, Meghan B; Shaughnessy, Lynn W; Sherman, Janet C; Locascio, Joseph J; Weintraub, Sandra; Atri, Alireza

2011-11-11

With the recent publication of new criteria for the diagnosis of preclinical Alzheimer's disease (AD), there is a need for neuropsychological tools that take premorbid functioning into account in order to detect subtle cognitive decline. Using demographic adjustments is one method for increasing the sensitivity of commonly used measures. We sought to provide a useful online z-score calculator that yields estimates of percentile ranges and adjusts individual performance based on sex, age and/or education for each of the neuropsychological tests of the National Alzheimer's Coordinating Center Uniform Data Set (NACC, UDS). In addition, we aimed to provide an easily accessible method of creating norms for other clinical researchers for their own, unique data sets. Data from 3,268 clinically cognitively-normal older UDS subjects from a cohort reported by Weintraub and colleagues (2009) were included. For all neuropsychological tests, z-scores were estimated by subtracting the raw score from the predicted mean and then dividing this difference score by the root mean squared error term (RMSE) for a given linear regression model. For each neuropsychological test, an estimated z-score was calculated for any raw score based on five different models that adjust for the demographic predictors of SEX, AGE and EDUCATION, either concurrently, individually or without covariates. The interactive online calculator allows the entry of a raw score and provides five corresponding estimated z-scores based on predictions from each corresponding linear regression model. The calculator produces percentile ranks and graphical output. An interactive, regression-based, normative score online calculator was created to serve as an additional resource for UDS clinical researchers, especially in guiding interpretation of individual performances that appear to fall in borderline realms and may be of particular utility for operationalizing subtle cognitive impairment present according to the newly proposed criteria for Stage 3 preclinical Alzheimer's disease.

Application of a Delay-difference model for the stock assessment of southern Atlantic albacore ( Thunnus alalunga)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Kui; Liu, Qun; Kalhoro, Muhsan Ali

2015-06-01

Delay-difference models are intermediate between simple surplus-production models and complicated age-structured models. Such intermediate models are more efficient and require less data than age-structured models. In this study, a delay-difference model was applied to fit catch and catch per unit effort (CPUE) data (1975-2011) of the southern Atlantic albacore ( Thunnus alalunga) stock. The proposed delay-difference model captures annual fluctuations in predicted CPUE data better than Fox model. In a Monte Carlo simulation, white noises (CVs) were superimposed on the observed CPUE data at four levels. Relative estimate error was then calculated to compare the estimated results with the true values of parameters α and β in Ricker stock-recruitment model and the catchability coefficient q. a is more sensitive to CV than β and q. We also calculated an 80% percentile confidence interval of the maximum sustainable yield (MSY, 21756 t to 23408 t; median 22490 t) with the delay-difference model. The yield of the southern Atlantic albacore stock in 2011 was 24122 t, and the estimated ratios of catch against MSY for the past seven years were approximately 1.0. We suggest that care should be taken to protect the albacore fishery in the southern Atlantic Ocean. The proposed delay-difference model provides a good fit to the data of southern Atlantic albacore stock and may be a useful choice for the assessment of regional albacore stock.

The Updated BaSTI Stellar Evolution Models and Isochrones. I. Solar-scaled Calculations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hidalgo, Sebastian L.; Pietrinferni, Adriano; Cassisi, Santi; Salaris, Maurizio; Mucciarelli, Alessio; Savino, Alessandro; Aparicio, Antonio; Silva Aguirre, Victor; Verma, Kuldeep

2018-04-01

We present an updated release of the BaSTI (a Bag of Stellar Tracks and Isochrones) stellar model and isochrone library for a solar-scaled heavy element distribution. The main input physics that have been changed from the previous BaSTI release include the solar metal mixture, electron conduction opacities, a few nuclear reaction rates, bolometric corrections, and the treatment of the overshooting efficiency for shrinking convective cores. The new model calculations cover a mass range between 0.1 and 15 M ⊙, 22 initial chemical compositions between [Fe/H] = ‑3.20 and +0.45, with helium to metal enrichment ratio dY/dZ = 1.31. The isochrones cover an age range between 20 Myr and 14.5 Gyr, consistently take into account the pre-main-sequence phase, and have been translated to a large number of popular photometric systems. Asteroseismic properties of the theoretical models have also been calculated. We compare our isochrones with results from independent databases and with several sets of observations to test the accuracy of the calculations. All stellar evolution tracks, asteroseismic properties, and isochrones are made available through a dedicated web site.

Age-structured mark-recapture analysis: A virtual-population-analysis-based model for analyzing age-structured capture-recapture data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coggins, L.G.; Pine, William E.; Walters, C.J.; Martell, S.J.D.

2006-01-01

We present a new model to estimate capture probabilities, survival, abundance, and recruitment using traditional Jolly-Seber capture-recapture methods within a standard fisheries virtual population analysis framework. This approach compares the numbers of marked and unmarked fish at age captured in each year of sampling with predictions based on estimated vulnerabilities and abundance in a likelihood function. Recruitment to the earliest age at which fish can be tagged is estimated by using a virtual population analysis method to back-calculate the expected numbers of unmarked fish at risk of capture. By using information from both marked and unmarked animals in a standard fisheries age structure framework, this approach is well suited to the sparse data situations common in long-term capture-recapture programs with variable sampling effort. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2006.

The Threshold Bias Model: A Mathematical Model for the Nomothetic Approach of Suicide

PubMed Central

Folly, Walter Sydney Dutra

2011-01-01

Background Comparative and predictive analyses of suicide data from different countries are difficult to perform due to varying approaches and the lack of comparative parameters. Methodology/Principal Findings A simple model (the Threshold Bias Model) was tested for comparative and predictive analyses of suicide rates by age. The model comprises of a six parameter distribution that was applied to the USA suicide rates by age for the years 2001 and 2002. Posteriorly, linear extrapolations are performed of the parameter values previously obtained for these years in order to estimate the values corresponding to the year 2003. The calculated distributions agreed reasonably well with the aggregate data. The model was also used to determine the age above which suicide rates become statistically observable in USA, Brazil and Sri Lanka. Conclusions/Significance The Threshold Bias Model has considerable potential applications in demographic studies of suicide. Moreover, since the model can be used to predict the evolution of suicide rates based on information extracted from past data, it will be of great interest to suicidologists and other researchers in the field of mental health. PMID:21909431

The threshold bias model: a mathematical model for the nomothetic approach of suicide.

PubMed

Folly, Walter Sydney Dutra

2011-01-01

Comparative and predictive analyses of suicide data from different countries are difficult to perform due to varying approaches and the lack of comparative parameters. A simple model (the Threshold Bias Model) was tested for comparative and predictive analyses of suicide rates by age. The model comprises of a six parameter distribution that was applied to the USA suicide rates by age for the years 2001 and 2002. Posteriorly, linear extrapolations are performed of the parameter values previously obtained for these years in order to estimate the values corresponding to the year 2003. The calculated distributions agreed reasonably well with the aggregate data. The model was also used to determine the age above which suicide rates become statistically observable in USA, Brazil and Sri Lanka. The Threshold Bias Model has considerable potential applications in demographic studies of suicide. Moreover, since the model can be used to predict the evolution of suicide rates based on information extracted from past data, it will be of great interest to suicidologists and other researchers in the field of mental health.

[Risk factor analysis of the patients with solitary pulmonary nodules and establishment of a prediction model for the probability of malignancy].

PubMed

Wang, X; Xu, Y H; Du, Z Y; Qian, Y J; Xu, Z H; Chen, R; Shi, M H

2018-02-23

Objective: This study aims to analyze the relationship among the clinical features, radiologic characteristics and pathological diagnosis in patients with solitary pulmonary nodules, and establish a prediction model for the probability of malignancy. Methods: Clinical data of 372 patients with solitary pulmonary nodules who underwent surgical resection with definite postoperative pathological diagnosis were retrospectively analyzed. In these cases, we collected clinical and radiologic features including gender, age, smoking history, history of tumor, family history of cancer, the location of lesion, ground-glass opacity, maximum diameter, calcification, vessel convergence sign, vacuole sign, pleural indentation, speculation and lobulation. The cases were divided to modeling group (268 cases) and validation group (104 cases). A new prediction model was established by logistic regression analying the data from modeling group. Then the data of validation group was planned to validate the efficiency of the new model, and was compared with three classical models(Mayo model, VA model and LiYun model). With the calculated probability values for each model from validation group, SPSS 22.0 was used to draw the receiver operating characteristic curve, to assess the predictive value of this new model. Results: 112 benign SPNs and 156 malignant SPNs were included in modeling group. Multivariable logistic regression analysis showed that gender, age, history of tumor, ground -glass opacity, maximum diameter, and speculation were independent predictors of malignancy in patients with SPN( P <0.05). We calculated a prediction model for the probability of malignancy as follow: p =e(x)/(1+ e(x)), x=-4.8029-0.743×gender+ 0.057×age+ 1.306×history of tumor+ 1.305×ground-glass opacity+ 0.051×maximum diameter+ 1.043×speculation. When the data of validation group was added to the four-mathematical prediction model, The area under the curve of our mathematical prediction model was 0.742, which is greater than other models (Mayo 0.696, VA 0.634, LiYun 0.681), while the differences between any two of the four models were not significant ( P >0.05). Conclusions: Age of patient, gender, history of tumor, ground-glass opacity, maximum diameter and speculation are independent predictors of malignancy in patients with solitary pulmonary nodule. This logistic regression prediction mathematic model is not inferior to those classical models in estimating the prognosis of SPNs.

Modeling Peat Ages Using 7Be Data to Account for Downwash of 210Pb

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manies, K.; Fuller, C.; Jones, M.

2016-12-01

In order to determine the amount of peat, and thus carbon, which has accumulated since the last thaw event, we are interested in dating the surface layers of boreal thermokarst bogs. However, there can often be a mismatch by several decades between dates obtained using 210Pb, 14C, or 137Cs. We found that 210Pb-based dates were almost always younger than 14C-based dates. One of the limitations often cited regarding the use of 210Pb dating for peatlands is the potential for this radionuclide to be transported down the soil profile, biasing the mean accumulation rate (MAR) towards higher values which, in turn, results in younger ages at a specific horizon. 7Be, which has similar depositional behaviors as 210Pb but a much shorter half-life (53.22 days), can be used to help determine if there is movement of 210Pb through surface layers and the depths to which 210Pb-bearing particles are transported (over the mean life of 7Be). These data can then be used in new models, such as the Linked Radionuclide aCcumulation model (LRC; Landis et al., 2016, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/ j.gca.2016.02.2013), which account for 210Pb downwash when calculating soil horizon ages. To this end, we measured 7Be within a bog four times over the growing season. 7Be was found to 4 cm in May, reached its maximum depth of penetration in July (7 cm), and then receded again to 4 cm. The maximum integrated 7Be activity was also found in July. This pattern is similar to other studies which found 7Be deposition decreased over the rainy season. Next, we will calculate peat ages with models that include downwash of 210Pb, the depths of which will be based on the penetration depth of 7Be. These ages will be compared to 210Pb ages obtained with both the Constant Rate of Supply (CRS) and Constant Flux - Constant Sedimentation (CF:CS) models and to 137Cs- and 14C-derived ages. We anticipate that dates based on models that include some transport of 210Pb into the soil profile will provide more accurate peat formation dates and allow for more accurate carbon accumulation rates.

QOL models constructed for the community-dwelling elderly with ikigai (purpose in life) as a composition factor, and the effect of habitual exercise.

PubMed

Demura, Shinichi; Kobayashi, Hidetsugu; Kitabayashi, Tamotsu

2005-09-01

The purpose of this study was to construct QOL models for the elderly that included ikigai as a composition factor and to clarify differences in two kinds of models, one constructed for the elderly with habitual exercise and the other for those without it. The subjects were 1,566 healthy community-dwelling independent people aged 60 years or more (752 males, 814 females). First, the ratio of subjects with ikigai was calculated. The ratios of subjects with different kinds of objects of ikigai were also calculated. Next, structural equation models (SEM) were constructed on the basis of social, physical, and mental QOL and ikigai. Fits of the models were evaluated. To examine whether the presence or absence of habitual exercise caused any difference in the QOL model, subjects were divided into 4 groups according to whether they were male or female and whether they had or did not have an exercise habit. Multi-population group simultaneous analysis was then performed among the four groups. More than 85% of the subjects had objects of ikigai. Ikigai is an important factor for comprehending the QOL of the elderly. It was possible to construct QOL models for the elderly with ikigai as a composition factor. The effect of physical QOL on mental QOL was negligible in females irrespective of whether they had an exercise habit. The effect of social QOL on mental QOL was profound in aged females with an exercise habit. The effect of the living situation on mental QOL was profound in aged females without an exercise habit. The effect of mental QOL on ikigai was more marked in subjects without an exercise habit than in those with an exercise habit.

Interpretation of K-Ar dates of illitic clays from sedimentary rocks aided by modeling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Srodon, J.; Clauer, Norbert; Eberl, D.D.D.

2002-01-01

K-Ar dates of illitic clays from sedimentary rocks may contain "mixed ages," i.e., may have ages that are intermediate between the ages of end-member events. Two phenomena that may cause mixed ages are: (1) long-lasting reaction during the burial illitization of smectite: and (2) physical mixing of detrital and diagenetic components. The first phenomenon was investigated by simulation of illitization reactions using a nucleation and growth mechanism. These calculations indicate that values for mixed ages are related to burial history: for an equivalent length of reaction time, fast burial followed by slow burial produces much older mixed ages than slow burial followed by fast. The type of reaction that occured in a rock can be determined from the distribution of ages with respect to the thickness of illite crystals. Dating of artificial mixtures confirms a non-linear relation between mixed ages and the proportions of the components. Vertical variation of K-Ar age dates from Gulf Coast shales can be modeled by assuming diagenetic illitization that overprints a subtle vertical trend (presumably of sedimentary origin) in detrital mineral content.

Soil organic matter persistence as a stochastic process: age and transit time distributions of carbon in soils

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sierra, Carlos

2017-04-01

The question of why some organic matter is more persistent than other that decomposes quickly in soils has sparkled a large amount of research in recent years. Persistence is commonly characterized as the turnover or mean residence time of specific compounds or soil organic matter (SOM) pools. However, turnover and residence times are ambiguous measures of persistence, which is better characterized by the probability distribution of ages in the system and in particular pools. We calculated age distributions for a wide range of SOM models, which showed long-tail distributions far from the mean value. Age and transit time distributions from a variety of models also showed: 1) transit times are lower than ages of SOM, 2) turnover times differ significantly from mean ages in slow cycling pools, 3) change in the inputs, without changes in the allocation of photosynthetic products, has no effect on transit times, but does affect system and pool ages. We propose an index to assess persistence of C in soils that can be derived from observations alone or from models. We also ask whether random chance is an important contributor to the persistence of SOM.

Analysis of the width ratio and wear rate of maxillary anterior teeth in the Korean population.

PubMed

Oh, Yeon-Ah; Yang, Hong-So; Park, Sang-Won; Lim, Hyun-Pil; Yun, Kwi-Dug; Park, Chan

2017-04-01

The purpose of this study was to compare the width ratio of maxillary anterior teeth according to age in the Korean population and to evaluate the maxillary central incisor width-to-length (W/L) ratio, given differences in age and gender. Ninety-three Korean adults were divided into 3 groups (n = 31) by age. Group I was 20 - 39 years old, Group II was 40 - 59 years old, and Group III was over 60 years of age. After taking an impression and a cast model of the maxillary arch, the anterior teeth width ratio and central incisor W/L ratio were calculated from standard digital images of the cast models using a graph paper with a digital single lens reflex (DSLR) camera. The calculated ratios were compared among all groups and central incisor W/L ratio were analyzed according to age and gender. All comparative data were statistically analyzed with one-sample t-tests, one-way ANOVAs with Tukey tests, and independent t-tests. No significant differences in maxillary anterior teeth ratios were found among the age groups. The maxillary central incisor W/L ratios in Group III were the greatest and were significantly higher than those in the other groups. The central incisor W/L ratio of men was higher than that of women in Group II. Maxillary anterior teeth width ratios were similar in all age groups in the Korean population. The maxillary central incisor was observed as worn teeth in the group over 60 years of age, and a significant difference between genders was found in 40 to 50 year olds.

Physical Processes at Turnoff

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michaud, Georges

Stellar evolution models taking into account atomic diffusion including radiative accelerations of 28 species have been calculated for Pop II stars of 0.5 to 1.2 solar mass with [Fe/H] from -4.31 to -0.71. Overabundances are expected in some turnoff stars with effective temperatures larger than 5900 K. They depend strongly on the metallicity of the cluster. At the metallicity of M92 they reach a factor of 10 for many species at 12 Gyr but a factor of at most 2 at 13.5 Gyr. Series of models were also calculated with turbulence to determine to what extent turbulence reduces predicted abundance anomalies. The level of abundance anomalies observed in turnoff stars may then determine a level of turbulence. Even in the presence of turbulence however allowance for diffusive processes leads to a 10%-12% reduction in age at a given turnoff luminosity. For M 92 an age of 13.5 Gyr is determined which is about 1.5 Gyr younger than obtained in the absence of diffusion. In clusters atomic diffusion is now known to play a role in white dwarfs HB stars for age determination and for abundance anomalies in some turnoff stars.

Physical Processes at Turnoff

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michaud, Georges

Stellar evolution models taking into account atomic diffusion including radiative accelerations of 28 species have been calculated for Pop II stars of 0.5 to 1.2 solar mass with [Fe/H] from -4.31 to -0.71. Overabundances are expected in some turnoff stars with effective temperatures larger than 5900 K. They depend strongly on the metallicity of the cluster. At the metallicity of M92 they reach a factor of 10 for many species at 12 Gyr but a factor of at most 2 at 13.5 Gyr. Series of models were also calculated with turbulence to determine to what extent turbulence reduces predicted abundance anomalies. The level of abundance anomalies observed in turnoff stars may then determine a level of turbulence. Even in the presence of turbulence however allowance for diffusive processes leads to a 10%-12% reduction in age at a given turnoff luminosity. For M 92 an age of 13.5 Gyr is determined which is about 1.5 Gyr younger than obtained in the absence of diffusion. In clusters atomic diffusion is now known to play a role in white dwarfs HB stars for age determination and for abundance anomalies in some turnoff stars

Processes at the turnoff

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michaud, Georges; Richard, Olivier; Richer, Jacques

2005-01-01

Stellar evolution models taking into account atomic diffusion including radiative accelerations of 28 species have been calculated for Pop II stars of 0.5 to 1.2 solar mass with [Fe/H] from -4.31 to -0.71. Overabundances are expected in some turnoff stars with effective temperatures larger than 5900 K. They depend strongly on the metallicity of the cluster. At the metallicity of M92 they reach a factor of 10 for many species at 12 Gyr but a factor of at most 2 at 13.5 Gyr. Series of models were also calculated with turbulence to determine to what extent turbulence reduces predicted abundance anomalies. The level of abundance anomalies observed in turnoff stars may then determine a level of turbulence. Even in the presence of turbulence however allowance for diffusive processes leads to a 10%-12% reduction in age at a given turnoff luminosity. For M 92 an age of 13.5 Gyr is determined which is about 1.5 Gyr younger than obtained in the absence of diffusion. In clusters atomic diffusion is now known to play a role in white dwarfs HB stars for age determination and for abundance anomalies in some turnoff stars.

Direct measurement of neon production rates by (α,n) reactions in minerals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cox, Stephen E.; Farley, Kenneth A.; Cherniak, Daniele J.

2015-01-01

The production of nucleogenic neon from alpha particle capture by 18O and 19F offers a potential chronometer sensitive to temperatures higher than the more widely used (U-Th)/He chronometer. The accuracy depends on the cross sections and the calculated stopping power for alpha particles in the mineral being studied. Published 18O(α,n)21Ne production rates are in poor agreement and were calculated from contradictory cross sections, and therefore demand experimental verification. Similarly, the stopping powers for alpha particles are calculated from SRIM (Stopping Range of Ions in Matter software) based on a limited experimental dataset. To address these issues we used a particle accelerator to implant alpha particles at precisely known energies into slabs of synthetic quartz (SiO2) and barium tungstate (BaWO4) to measure 21Ne production from capture by 18O. Within experimental uncertainties the observed 21Ne production rates compare favorably to our predictions using published cross sections and stopping powers, indicating that ages calculated using these quantities are accurate at the ∼3% level. In addition, we measured the 22Ne/21Ne ratio and (U-Th)/He and (U-Th)/Ne ages of Durango fluorapatite, which is an important model system for this work because it contains both oxygen and fluorine. Finally, we present 21Ne/4He production rate ratios for a variety of minerals of geochemical interest along with software for calculating neon production rates and (U-Th)/Ne ages.

Automated EEG sleep staging in the term-age baby using a generative modelling approach.

PubMed

Pillay, Kirubin; Dereymaeker, Anneleen; Jansen, Katrien; Naulaers, Gunnar; Van Huffel, Sabine; De Vos, Maarten

2018-06-01

We develop a method for automated four-state sleep classification of preterm and term-born babies at term-age of 38-40 weeks postmenstrual age (the age since the last menstrual cycle of the mother) using multichannel electroencephalogram (EEG) recordings. At this critical age, EEG differentiates from broader quiet sleep (QS) and active sleep (AS) stages to four, more complex states, and the quality and timing of this differentiation is indicative of the level of brain development. However, existing methods for automated sleep classification remain focussed only on QS and AS sleep classification. EEG features were calculated from 16 EEG recordings, in 30 s epochs, and personalized feature scaling used to correct for some of the inter-recording variability, by standardizing each recording's feature data using its mean and standard deviation. Hidden Markov models (HMMs) and Gaussian mixture models (GMMs) were trained, with the HMM incorporating knowledge of the sleep state transition probabilities. Performance of the GMM and HMM (with and without scaling) were compared, and Cohen's kappa agreement calculated between the estimates and clinicians' visual labels. For four-state classification, the HMM proved superior to the GMM. With the inclusion of personalized feature scaling, mean kappa (±standard deviation) was 0.62 (±0.16) compared to the GMM value of 0.55 (±0.15). Without feature scaling, kappas for the HMM and GMM dropped to 0.56 (±0.18) and 0.51 (±0.15), respectively. This is the first study to present a successful method for the automated staging of four states in term-age sleep using multichannel EEG. Results suggested a benefit in incorporating transition information using an HMM, and correcting for inter-recording variability through personalized feature scaling. Determining the timing and quality of these states are indicative of developmental delays in both preterm and term-born babies that may lead to learning problems by school age.

Automated EEG sleep staging in the term-age baby using a generative modelling approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pillay, Kirubin; Dereymaeker, Anneleen; Jansen, Katrien; Naulaers, Gunnar; Van Huffel, Sabine; De Vos, Maarten

2018-06-01

Objective. We develop a method for automated four-state sleep classification of preterm and term-born babies at term-age of 38-40 weeks postmenstrual age (the age since the last menstrual cycle of the mother) using multichannel electroencephalogram (EEG) recordings. At this critical age, EEG differentiates from broader quiet sleep (QS) and active sleep (AS) stages to four, more complex states, and the quality and timing of this differentiation is indicative of the level of brain development. However, existing methods for automated sleep classification remain focussed only on QS and AS sleep classification. Approach. EEG features were calculated from 16 EEG recordings, in 30 s epochs, and personalized feature scaling used to correct for some of the inter-recording variability, by standardizing each recording’s feature data using its mean and standard deviation. Hidden Markov models (HMMs) and Gaussian mixture models (GMMs) were trained, with the HMM incorporating knowledge of the sleep state transition probabilities. Performance of the GMM and HMM (with and without scaling) were compared, and Cohen’s kappa agreement calculated between the estimates and clinicians’ visual labels. Main results. For four-state classification, the HMM proved superior to the GMM. With the inclusion of personalized feature scaling, mean kappa (±standard deviation) was 0.62 (±0.16) compared to the GMM value of 0.55 (±0.15). Without feature scaling, kappas for the HMM and GMM dropped to 0.56 (±0.18) and 0.51 (±0.15), respectively. Significance. This is the first study to present a successful method for the automated staging of four states in term-age sleep using multichannel EEG. Results suggested a benefit in incorporating transition information using an HMM, and correcting for inter-recording variability through personalized feature scaling. Determining the timing and quality of these states are indicative of developmental delays in both preterm and term-born babies that may lead to learning problems by school age.

Structured settlement annuities, part 2: mortality experience 1967--95 and the estimation of life expectancy in the presence of excess mortality.

PubMed

Singer, R B; Schmidt, C J

2000-01-01

the mortality experience for structured settlement (SS) annuitants issued both standard (Std) and substandard (SStd) has been reported twice previously by the Society of Actuaries (SOA), but the 1995 mortality described here has not previously been published. We describe in detail the 1995 SS mortality, and we also discuss the methodology of calculating life expectancy (e), contrasting three different life-table models. With SOA permission, we present in four tables the unpublished results of its 1995 SS mortality experience by Std and SStd issue, sex, and a combination of 8 age and 6 duration groups. Overall results on mortality expected from the 1983a Individual Annuity Table showed a mortality ratio (MR) of about 140% for Std cases and about 650% for all SStd cases. Life expectancy in a group with excess mortality may be computed by either adding the decimal excess death rate (EDR) to q' for each year of attained age to age 109 or multiplying q' by the decimal MR for each year to age 109. An example is given for men age 60 with localized prostate cancer; annual EDRs from a large published cancer study are used at duration 0-24 years, and the last EDR is assumed constant to age 109. This value of e is compared with e from constant initial values of EDR or MR after the first year. Interrelations of age, sex, e, and EDR and MR are discussed and illustrated with tabular data. It is shown that a constant MR for life-table calculation of e consistently overestimates projected annual mortality at older attained ages and underestimates e. The EDR method, approved for reserve calculations, is also recommended for use in underwriting conversion tables.

Chronologic implications for slow cooling of troctolite 76535 and temporal relationships between the Mg-suite and the ferroan anorthosite suite

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borg, Lars E.; Connelly, James N.; Cassata, William S.; Gaffney, Amy M.; Bizzarro, Martin

2017-03-01

Ages have been obtained using the 87Rb-87Sr, 147Sm-143Nd, and 146Sm-142Nd isotopic systems for one of the most slowly cooled lunar rocks, Apollo 17 Mg-suite troctolite 76535. The 147Sm-143Nd, 146Sm-142Nd, and Rb-Sr ages derived from plagioclase, olivine, and pyroxene mineral isochrons yield concordant ages of 4307 ± 11 Ma, 4299+29/-35 Ma, and 4279 ± 52 Ma, respectively. These ages are slightly younger than the age determined on ferroan anorthosite suite (FAS) rock 60025 and are therefore consistent with the traditional magma ocean model of lunar differentiation in which the Mg-suite is intruded into the anorthositic crust. However, the Sm-Nd ages record when the rock passed below the closing temperature of the Sm-Nd system in this rock at ∼825 °C, whereas the Rb-Sr age likely records the closure temperature of ∼650 °C. A cooling rate of 3.9 °C/Ma is determined using the ages reported here and in the literature and calculated closure temperatures for the Ar-Ar, Pb-Pb, Rb-Sr, and Sm-Nd systems. This cooling rate is in good agreement with cooling rates estimated from petrographic observations. Slow cooling can lower apparent Sm-Nd crystallization ages by up to ∼80 Ma in the slowest cooled rocks like 76535, and likely accounts for some of the variation of ages reported for lunar crustal rocks. Nevertheless, slow cooling cannot account for the overlap in FAS and Mg-suite rock ages. Instead, this overlap appears to reflect the concordance of Mg-suite and FAS magmatism in the lunar crust as indicated by ages calculated for the solidus temperature of 76535 and 60025 of 4384 ± 24 Ma and 4383 ± 17, respectively. Not only are the solidus ages of 76535 and 60025 nearly concordant, but the Sm-Nd isotopic systematics suggest they are derived from reservoirs that were minimally differentiated prior to ∼4.38 Ga. Although the Sr isotopic composition of 60025 indicates its source was minimally differentiated, the Sr isotopic composition of 76535 indicates it underwent fractionation just prior to solidification of the 76535. These observations are consistent with both a magma ocean or a serial magmatism model of lunar differentiation. In either model, differentiation of lunar source regions must occur near the solidification age of thee samples. Perhaps the best estimate for the formation age of lunar source regions is the Rb-Sr model age of the 76535 source region age of 4401 ± 32 Ma. This is in good agreement with Sm-Nd model ages for the formation of ur-KREEP and suggests that differentiation of a least part of the Moon could not have occurred prior to ∼4.43 Ga.

Variation of the radiative properties during black carbon aging: theoretical and experimental intercomparison

DOE PAGES

He, C.; Liou, K.-N.; Takano, Y.; ...

2015-07-20

A theoretical black carbon (BC) aging model is developed to account for three typical evolution stages, namely, freshly emitted aggregates, coated BC by soluble material, and BC particles undergoing further hygroscopic growth. The geometric-optics surface-wave (GOS) approach is employed to compute the BC single-scattering properties at each aging stage, which are subsequently compared with laboratory measurements. Theoretical calculations are consistent with measurements in extinction and absorption cross sections for fresh BC aggregates, but overestimate the scattering cross sections for BC mobility diameters of 155, 245, and 320 nm, because of uncertainties associated with theoretical calculations for small particles as wellmore » as laboratory scattering measurements. The measured optical cross sections for coated BC by sulfuric acid and for those undergoing further hygroscopic growth are captured by theoretical calculations using a concentric core-shell structure, with differences of less than 20 %. This suggests that the core-shell shape represents the realistic BC coating morphology reasonably well in this case, which is consistent with the observed strong structure compaction during aging. We find that the absorption and scattering properties of fresh BC aggregates vary by up to 60 % due to uncertainty in the BC refractive index, which, however, is a factor of two smaller in the case of coated BC particles. Sensitivity analyses on the BC morphology show that the optical properties of fresh BC aggregates are more sensitive to fractal dimension than primary spherule size. The absorption and scattering cross sections of coated BC particles vary by more than a factor of two due to different coating structures. We find an increase of 20–250 % in absorption and a factor of 3–15 in scattering during aging, significantly depending on coating morphology and aging stages. Applying the aging model to CalNex 2010 field measurements, we show that the resulting BC direct radiative forcing (DRF) first increases from 1.5 to 1.7 W m -2 and subsequently decreases to 1.0 W m -2 during the transport from the Los Angeles Basin to downwind regions, as a result of the competition between absorption enhancement due to coating and dilution of BC concentration. The BC DRF can vary by up to a factor of two due to differences in BC coating morphology. Thus, an accurate estimate of BC DRF requires the incorporation of a dynamic BC aging process that accounts for realistic morphology in climate models, particularly for the regional analysis with high atmospheric heterogeneity.« less

Variation of the radiative properties during black carbon aging: theoretical and experimental intercomparison

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

He, C.; Liou, K.-N.; Takano, Y.

A theoretical black carbon (BC) aging model is developed to account for three typical evolution stages, namely, freshly emitted aggregates, coated BC by soluble material, and BC particles undergoing further hygroscopic growth. The geometric-optics surface-wave (GOS) approach is employed to compute the BC single-scattering properties at each aging stage, which are subsequently compared with laboratory measurements. Theoretical calculations are consistent with measurements in extinction and absorption cross sections for fresh BC aggregates, but overestimate the scattering cross sections for BC mobility diameters of 155, 245, and 320 nm, because of uncertainties associated with theoretical calculations for small particles as wellmore » as laboratory scattering measurements. The measured optical cross sections for coated BC by sulfuric acid and for those undergoing further hygroscopic growth are captured by theoretical calculations using a concentric core-shell structure, with differences of less than 20 %. This suggests that the core-shell shape represents the realistic BC coating morphology reasonably well in this case, which is consistent with the observed strong structure compaction during aging. We find that the absorption and scattering properties of fresh BC aggregates vary by up to 60 % due to uncertainty in the BC refractive index, which, however, is a factor of two smaller in the case of coated BC particles. Sensitivity analyses on the BC morphology show that the optical properties of fresh BC aggregates are more sensitive to fractal dimension than primary spherule size. The absorption and scattering cross sections of coated BC particles vary by more than a factor of two due to different coating structures. We find an increase of 20–250 % in absorption and a factor of 3–15 in scattering during aging, significantly depending on coating morphology and aging stages. Applying the aging model to CalNex 2010 field measurements, we show that the resulting BC direct radiative forcing (DRF) first increases from 1.5 to 1.7 W m -2 and subsequently decreases to 1.0 W m -2 during the transport from the Los Angeles Basin to downwind regions, as a result of the competition between absorption enhancement due to coating and dilution of BC concentration. The BC DRF can vary by up to a factor of two due to differences in BC coating morphology. Thus, an accurate estimate of BC DRF requires the incorporation of a dynamic BC aging process that accounts for realistic morphology in climate models, particularly for the regional analysis with high atmospheric heterogeneity.« less

Main Sources and Doses of Space Radiation during Mars Missions and Total Radiation Risk for Cosmonauts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mitrikas, Victor; Aleksandr, Shafirkin; Shurshakov, Vyacheslav

This work contains calculation data of generalized doses and dose equivalents in critical organs and tissues of cosmonauts produces by galactic cosmic rays (GCR), solar cosmic rays (SCR) and the Earth’s radiation belts (ERB) that will impact crewmembers during a flight to Mars, while staying in the landing module and on the Martian surface, and during the return to Earth. Also calculated total radiation risk values during whole life of cosmonauts after the flight are presented. Radiation risk (RR) calculations are performed on the basis of a radiobiological model of radiation damage to living organisms, while taking into account reparation processes acting during continuous long-term exposure at various dose rates and under acute recurrent radiation impact. The calculations of RR are performed for crewmembers of various ages implementing a flight to Mars over 2 - 3 years in maximum and minimum of the solar cycle. The total carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic RR and possible life-span shortening are estimated on the basis of a model of the radiation death probability for mammals. This model takes into account the decrease in compensatory reserve of an organism as well as the increase in mortality rate and descent of the subsequent lifetime of the cosmonaut. The analyzed dose distributions in the shielding and body areas are applied to making model calculations of tissue equivalent spherical and anthropomorphic phantoms.

Geochemistry of spring water, southeastern Uinta Basin, Utah and Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kimball, Briant A.

1981-01-01

The chemical quality of water in the southeastern Uinta Basin, Utah and Colorado, is important to the future development of the abundant oil-shale resources of the area. This report examines the observed changes in chemistry as water circulates in both shallow and deep ground-water systems. Mass-balance and mass- transfer calculations are used to define reactions that simulate the observed water chemistry in the mixed sandstone, siltstone, and carbonate lithology of the Green River Formation of Tertiary age.The mass-transfer calculations determine a reaction path particular to this system. The early dominance of calcite dissolution produces a calcium carbonate water. After calcite saturation, deeper circulation and further rock-water interaction cause the reprecipitation of calcite, the dissolution of dolomite and plagioclase, and the oxidation of pyrite; all combining to produce a calcium magnesium sodium bicarbonate sulfate water. The calculations suggest that silica concentrations are controlled by a kaolinite-Ca-montmorillonite phase boundary. Close agreement of mineral-saturation indices calculated by both an aqueous-equilibrium model and the mass-transfer model support the selection of reactions from the mass-transfer calculations.

Application of third molar development and eruption models in estimating dental age in Malay sub-adults.

PubMed

Mohd Yusof, Mohd Yusmiaidil Putera; Cauwels, Rita; Deschepper, Ellen; Martens, Luc

2015-08-01

The third molar development (TMD) has been widely utilized as one of the radiographic method for dental age estimation. By using the same radiograph of the same individual, third molar eruption (TME) information can be incorporated to the TMD regression model. This study aims to evaluate the performance of dental age estimation in individual method models and the combined model (TMD and TME) based on the classic regressions of multiple linear and principal component analysis. A sample of 705 digital panoramic radiographs of Malay sub-adults aged between 14.1 and 23.8 years was collected. The techniques described by Gleiser and Hunt (modified by Kohler) and Olze were employed to stage the TMD and TME, respectively. The data was divided to develop three respective models based on the two regressions of multiple linear and principal component analysis. The trained models were then validated on the test sample and the accuracy of age prediction was compared between each model. The coefficient of determination (R²) and root mean square error (RMSE) were calculated. In both genders, adjusted R² yielded an increment in the linear regressions of combined model as compared to the individual models. The overall decrease in RMSE was detected in combined model as compared to TMD (0.03-0.06) and TME (0.2-0.8). In principal component regression, low value of adjusted R(2) and high RMSE except in male were exhibited in combined model. Dental age estimation is better predicted using combined model in multiple linear regression models. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd and Faculty of Forensic and Legal Medicine. All rights reserved.

Age Estimation of African Lions Panthera leo by Ratio of Tooth Areas

PubMed Central

Ikanda, Dennis; Ferrante, Luigi; Chardonnet, Philippe; Mesochina, Pascal; Cameriere, Roberto

2016-01-01

Improved age estimation of African lions Panthera leo is needed to address a number of pressing conservation issues. Here we present a formula for estimating lion age to within six months of known age based on measuring the extent of pulp closure from X-rays, or Ratio Of tooth AReas (ROAR). Derived from measurements taken from lions aged 3–13 years for which exact ages were known, the formula explains 92% of the total variance. The method of calculating the pulp/tooth area ratio, which has been used extensively in forensic science, is novel in the study of lion aging. As a quantifiable measure, ROAR offers improved lion age estimates for population modeling and investigations of age-related mortality, and may assist national and international wildlife authorities in judging compliance with regulatory measures involving age. PMID:27089506

Age Estimation of African Lions Panthera leo by Ratio of Tooth Areas.

PubMed

White, Paula A; Ikanda, Dennis; Ferrante, Luigi; Chardonnet, Philippe; Mesochina, Pascal; Cameriere, Roberto

2016-01-01

Improved age estimation of African lions Panthera leo is needed to address a number of pressing conservation issues. Here we present a formula for estimating lion age to within six months of known age based on measuring the extent of pulp closure from X-rays, or Ratio Of tooth AReas (ROAR). Derived from measurements taken from lions aged 3-13 years for which exact ages were known, the formula explains 92% of the total variance. The method of calculating the pulp/tooth area ratio, which has been used extensively in forensic science, is novel in the study of lion aging. As a quantifiable measure, ROAR offers improved lion age estimates for population modeling and investigations of age-related mortality, and may assist national and international wildlife authorities in judging compliance with regulatory measures involving age.

Sediment residence times constrained by uranium-series isotopes: A critical appraisal of the comminution approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Handley, Heather K.; Turner, Simon; Afonso, Juan C.; Dosseto, Anthony; Cohen, Tim

2013-02-01

Quantifying the rates of landscape evolution in response to climate change is inhibited by the difficulty of dating the formation of continental detrital sediments. We present uranium isotope data for Cooper Creek palaeochannel sediments from the Lake Eyre Basin in semi-arid South Australia in order to attempt to determine the formation ages and hence residence times of the sediments. To calculate the amount of recoil loss of 234U, a key input parameter used in the comminution approach, we use two suggested methods (weighted geometric and surface area measurement with an incorporated fractal correction) and typical assumed input parameter values found in the literature. The calculated recoil loss factors and comminution ages are highly dependent on the method of recoil loss factor determination used and the chosen assumptions. To appraise the ramifications of the assumptions inherent in the comminution age approach and determine individual and combined comminution age uncertainties associated to each variable, Monte Carlo simulations were conducted for a synthetic sediment sample. Using a reasonable associated uncertainty for each input factor and including variations in the source rock and measured (234U/238U) ratios, the total combined uncertainty on comminution age in our simulation (for both methods of recoil loss factor estimation) can amount to ±220-280 ka. The modelling shows that small changes in assumed input values translate into large effects on absolute comminution age. To improve the accuracy of the technique and provide meaningful absolute comminution ages, much tighter constraints are required on the assumptions for input factors such as the fraction of α-recoil lost 234Th and the initial (234U/238U) ratio of the source material. In order to be able to directly compare calculated comminution ages produced by different research groups, the standardisation of pre-treatment procedures, recoil loss factor estimation and assumed input parameter values is required. We suggest a set of input parameter values for such a purpose. Additional considerations for calculating comminution ages of sediments deposited within large, semi-arid drainage basins are discussed.

Discrimination thresholds of normal and anomalous trichromats: Model of senescent changes in ocular media density on the Cambridge Colour Test

PubMed Central

Shinomori, Keizo; Panorgias, Athanasios; Werner, John S.

2017-01-01

Age-related changes in chromatic discrimination along dichromatic confusion lines were measured with the Cambridge Colour Test (CCT). One hundred and sixty-two individuals (16 to 88 years old) with normal Rayleigh matches were the major focus of this paper. An additional 32 anomalous trichromats classified by their Rayleigh matches were also tested. All subjects were screened to rule out abnormalities of the anterior and posterior segments. Thresholds on all three chromatic vectors measured with the CCT showed age-related increases. Protan and deutan vector thresholds increased linearly with age while the tritan vector threshold was described with a bilinear model. Analysis and modeling demonstrated that the nominal vectors of the CCT are shifted by senescent changes in ocular media density, and a method for correcting the CCT vectors is demonstrated. A correction for these shifts indicates that classification among individuals of different ages is unaffected. New vector thresholds for elderly observers and for all age groups are suggested based on calculated tolerance limits. PMID:26974943

Stress and Damage in Polymer Matrix Composite Materials Due to Material Degradation at High Temperatures

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mcmanus, H.L.; Chamis, C.C.

1996-01-01

This report describes analytical methods for calculating stresses and damage caused by degradation of the matrix constituent in polymer matrix composite materials. Laminate geometry, material properties, and matrix degradation states are specified as functions of position and time. Matrix shrinkage and property changes are modeled as functions of the degradation states. The model is incorporated into an existing composite mechanics computer code. Stresses, strains, and deformations at the laminate, ply, and micro levels are calculated, and from these calculations it is determined if there is failure of any kind. The rationale for the model (based on published experimental work) ismore » presented, its integration into the laminate analysis code is outlined, and example results are given, with comparisons to existing material and structural data. The mechanisms behind the changes in properties and in surface cracking during long-term aging of polyimide matrix composites are clarified. High-temperature-material test methods are also evaluated.« less

Anatomically realistic reference models of pregnant women for gestation ages of 13, 18, and 26 weeks.

PubMed

Nagaoka, T; Saito, K; Takahashi, M; Ito, K; Watanabe, S

2008-01-01

The safety of a human body exposed to radio-frequency (RF) electromagnetic fields (EMFs) has become important today. In recent times, conducting numerical dosimetry on the mother and the fetus during pregnancy has become a particularly important issue. This paper outlines the development of pregnant woman models that were adjusted to the reference values of physiological characteristics of maternal tissues in pregnant women for gestation ages of 13, 18, and 26 weeks The models are composed of voxels of 2 x 2 x 2 mm(3), and there are 56 tissue types. The basic specific absorption rate (SAR) characteristics in the pregnant woman models for whole-body exposure to RF electromagnetic fields that were calculated using the finite-difference time-domain (FDTD) method are described here.

Evolution of dissolved inorganic carbon in groundwater recharged by cyclones and groundwater age estimations using the 14C statistical approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meredith, K. T.; Han, L. F.; Cendón, D. I.; Crawford, J.; Hankin, S.; Peterson, M.; Hollins, S. E.

2018-01-01

The Canning Basin is the largest sedimentary basin in Western Australia and is located in one of the most cyclone prone regions of Australia. Despite its importance as a future resource, limited groundwater data is available for the Basin. The main aims of this paper are to provide a detailed understanding of the source of groundwater recharge, the chemical evolution of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and provide groundwater age estimations using radiocarbon (14CDIC). To do this we combine hydrochemical and isotopic techniques to investigate the type of precipitation that recharge the aquifer and identify the carbon processes influencing 14CDIC, δ13CDIC, and [DIC]. This enables us to select an appropriate model for calculating radiocarbon ages in groundwater. The aquifer was found to be recharged by precipitation originating from tropical cyclones imparting lower average δ2H and δ18O values in groundwater (-56.9‰ and -7.87‰, respectively). Water recharges the soil zone rapidly after these events and the groundwater undergoes silicate mineral weathering and clay mineral transformation processes. It was also found that partial carbonate dissolution processes occur within the saturated zone under closed system conditions. Additionally, the processes could be lumped into a pseudo-first-order process and the age could be estimated using the 14C statistical approach. In the single-sample-based 14C models, 14C0 is the initial 14CDIC value used in the decay equation that considers only 14C decay rate. A major advantage of using the statistical approach is that both 14C decay and geochemical processes that cause the decrease in 14CDIC are accounted for in the calculation. The 14CDIC values of groundwater were found to increase from 89 pmc in the south east to around 16 pmc along the groundwater flow path towards the coast indicating ages ranging from modern to 5.3 ka. A test of the sensitivity of this method showed that a ∼15% error could be found for the oldest water. This error was low when compared to single-sample-based models. This study not only provides the first groundwater age estimations for the Canning Basin but is the first groundwater dating study to test the sensitivity of the statistical approach and provide meaningful error calculations for groundwater dating.

Geodynamic evolution of the lithosphere of the Sea of Okhotsk region from geophysical data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verzhbitsky, E. V.; Kononov, M. V.

2006-06-01

The tectonic structure and anomalous distributions of geophysical fields of the Sea of Okhotsk region are considered; the lack of reliable data on the age of the lithosphere beneath basins of various origins in the Sea of Okhotsk is noted. Model calculations based on geological and geophysical data yielded an age of 65 Ma (the Cretaceous-Paleocene boundary) for the Central Okhotsk rise underlain by the continental lithosphere. This estimate agrees with the age (the end of the Cretaceous) derived from seismostratigraphic data. A comparative analysis of theoretical and measured heat fluxes in the Akademii Nauk Rise, underlain by a thinned continental crust, is performed. The analysis points to a higher (by 20%) value of the measured thermal background of the rise, which is consistent with a high negative gradient of gravity anomalies in this area. Calculations yielded an age of 36 Ma (the Early Oligocene) and a lithosphere thickness of 50 km for the South Okhotsk depression, whose seafloor was formed by processes of backarc spreading. The estimated age of the depression is supported by kinematic data on the region; the calculated thickness of the lithosphere coincides with the value estimated from data of magnetotelluric sounding here. This indicates that the formation time (36 Ma) of the South Okhotsk depression was estimated correctly. Numerical modeling performed for the determination of the basement age of rifting basins in the Sea of Okhotsk gave the following estimates: 18 Ma (the Early Miocene) for the Deryugin basin, 12 Ma (the Middle Miocene) for the TINRO basin, and 23 Ma (the Late Oligocene) for the West Kamchatka trough. These estimates agree with the formation time (Oligocene-Quaternary) of the sedimentary cover in rifting basins of the Sea of Okhotsk derived from geological and geophysical data. Model temperature estimates are obtained for lithologic and stratigraphic boundaries of the sedimentary cover in the Deryugin and TINRO basins and the West Kamchatka trough; the temperature analysis indicates that the latter two structures are promising for oil and hydrocarbon gas generation; the West Kamchatka trough possesses better reservoir properties compared to the TINRO and Deryugin basins. The latter is promising for the generation of hydrocarbon gas. Paleogeodynamic reconstructions of the Sea of Okhotsk region evolution are obtained for times of 90, 66, and 36 Ma on the basis of kinematic, geomagnetic, structural, tectonic, geothermal, and other geological and geophysical data.

Age-specific cost and public funding of a live birth following assisted reproductive treatment in Japan.

PubMed

Maeda, Eri; Ishihara, Osamu; Saito, Hidekazu; Kuwahara, Akira; Toyokawa, Satoshi; Kobayashi, Yasuki

2014-05-01

The aim of this study was to calculate and assess the cost of assisted reproductive technology (ART) treatment cycles and live-birth events in Japan in 2010. We performed a retrospective analysis of 238,185 ART cycles, registered with the national registry of assisted reproductive treatment during 2010. Costs were calculated, using a decision analysis model. The average cost per live birth was ¥1,974,000. This varied from ¥1,155,000 in women aged < 30 years to ¥50,189,000 in women aged ≥ 45, which was 29.6 times higher than that of women aged 35-39 years. This rose sharply in the early 40s and upwards. Public funding per live birth was ¥442,000. This was ¥6,118,000 in women aged ≥ 45, 15.4 times higher than that of the 35-39-year-old age group. The costs and public funding of a live birth after ART treatment rises with age due to the lower success rates in older women. It may provide economic background to improve the current subsidy system for ART and to provide practical knowledge about fertility for the general population. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Obstetrics and Gynaecology Research © 2014 Japan Society of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Glial Activation and Glucose Metabolism in a Transgenic Amyloid Mouse Model: A Triple-Tracer PET Study.

PubMed

Brendel, Matthias; Probst, Federico; Jaworska, Anna; Overhoff, Felix; Korzhova, Viktoria; Albert, Nathalie L; Beck, Roswitha; Lindner, Simon; Gildehaus, Franz-Josef; Baumann, Karlheinz; Bartenstein, Peter; Kleinberger, Gernot; Haass, Christian; Herms, Jochen; Rominger, Axel

2016-06-01

Amyloid imaging by small-animal PET in models of Alzheimer disease (AD) offers the possibility to track amyloidogenesis and brain energy metabolism. Because microglial activation is thought to contribute to AD pathology, we undertook a triple-tracer small-animal PET study to assess microglial activation and glucose metabolism in association with amyloid plaque load in a transgenic AD mouse model. Groups of PS2APP and C57BL/6 wild-type mice of various ages were examined by small-animal PET. We acquired 90-min dynamic emission data with (18)F-GE180 for imaging activated microglia (18-kD translocator protein ligand [TSPO]) and static 30- to 60-min recordings with (18)F-FDG for energy metabolism and (18)F-florbetaben for amyloidosis. Optimal fusion of PET data was obtained through automatic nonlinear spatial normalization, and SUVRs were calculated. For the novel TSPO tracer (18)F-GE180, we then calculated distribution volume ratios after establishing a suitable reference region. Immunohistochemical analyses with TSPO antisera, methoxy-X04 staining for fibrillary β-amyloid, and ex vivo autoradiography served as terminal gold standard assessments. SUVR at 60-90 min after injection gave robust quantitation of (18)F-GE180, which correlated well with distribution volume ratios calculated from the entire recording and using a white matter reference region. Relative to age-matched wild-type, (18)F-GE180 SUVR was slightly elevated in PS2APP mice at 5 mo (+9%; P < 0.01) and distinctly increased at 16 mo (+25%; P < 0.001). Over this age range, there was a high positive correlation between small-animal PET findings of microglial activation with amyloid load (R = 0.85; P < 0.001) and likewise with metabolism (R = 0.61; P < 0.005). Immunohistochemical and autoradiographic findings confirmed the in vivo small-animal PET data. In this first triple-tracer small-animal PET in a well-established AD mouse model, we found evidence for age-dependent microglial activation. This activation, correlating positively with the amyloid load, implies a relationship between amyloidosis and inflammation in the PS2APP AD mouse model. © 2016 by the Society of Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging, Inc.

Recurrence rate and magma effusion rate for the latest volcanism on Arsia Mons, Mars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richardson, Jacob A.; Wilson, James A.; Connor, Charles B.; Bleacher, Jacob E.; Kiyosugi, Koji

2017-01-01

Magmatism and volcanism have evolved the Martian lithosphere, surface, and climate throughout the history of Mars. Constraining the rates of magma generation and timing of volcanism on the surface clarifies the ways in which magma and volcanic activity have shaped these Martian systems. The ages of lava flows on other planets are often estimated using impact crater counts, assuming that the number and size-distribution of impact craters per unit area reflect the time the lava flow has been on the surface and exposed to potential impacts. Here we show that impact crater age model uncertainty is reduced by adding stratigraphic information observed at locations where neighboring lavas abut each other, and demonstrate the significance of this reduction in age uncertainty for understanding the history of a volcanic field comprising 29 vents in the 110-km-diameter caldera of Arsia Mons, Mars. Each vent within this caldera produced lava flows several to tens of kilometers in length; these vents are likely among the youngest on Mars, since no impact craters in their lava flows are larger than 1 km in diameter. First, we modeled the age of each vent with impact crater counts performed on their corresponding lava flows and found very large age uncertainties for the ages of individual vents, often spanning the estimated age for the entire volcanic field. The age model derived from impact crater counts alone is broad and unimodal, with estimated peak activity in the field around 130 Ma. Next we applied our volcano event age model (VEAM), which uses a directed graph of stratigraphic relationships and random sampling of the impact crater age determinations to create alternative age models. Monte Carlo simulation was used to create 10,000 possible vent age sets. The recurrence rate of volcanism is calculated for each possible age set, and these rates are combined to calculate the median recurrence rate of all simulations. Applying this approach to the 29 volcanic vents, volcanism likely began around 200-300 Ma then first peaked around 150 Ma, with an average production rate of 0.4 vents per Myr. The recurrence rate estimated including stratigraphic data is distinctly bimodal, with a second, lower peak in activity around 100 Ma. Volcanism then waned until the final vents were produced 10-90 Ma. Based on this model, volume flux is also bimodal, reached a peak rate of 1-8 km3 Myr-1 by 150 Ma and remained above half this rate until about 90 Ma, after which the volume flux diminished greatly. The onset of effusive volcanism from 200-150 Ma might be due to a transition of volcanic style away from explosive volcanism that emplaced tephra on the western flank of Arsia Mons, while the waning of volcanism after the 150 Ma peak might represent a larger-scale diminishing of volcanic activity at Arsia Mons related to the emplacement of flank apron lavas.

Recurrence Rate and Magma Effusion Rate for the Latest Volcanism on Arsia Mons, Mars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Richardson, Jacob A.; Wilson, James A.; Connor, Charles B.; Bleacher, Jacob E.; Kiyosugi, Koji

2016-01-01

Magmatism and volcanism have evolved the Martian lithosphere, surface, and climate throughout the history of Mars. Constraining the rates of magma generation and timing of volcanism on the surface clarifies the ways in which magma and volcanic activity have shaped these Martian systems. The ages of lava flows on other planets are often estimated using impact crater counts, assuming that the number and size-distribution of impact craters per unit area reflect the time the lava flow has been on the surface and exposed to potential impacts. Here we show that impact crater age model uncertainty is reduced by adding stratigraphic information observed at locations where neighboring lavas abut each other, and demonstrate the significance of this reduction in age uncertainty for understanding the history of a volcanic field comprising 29 vents in the 110-kilometer-diameter caldera of Arsia Mons, Mars. Each vent within this caldera produced lava flows several to tens of kilometers in length; these vents are likely among the youngest on Mars, since no impact craters in their lava flows are larger than 1 kilometer in diameter. First, we modeled the age of each vent with impact crater counts performed on their corresponding lava flows and found very large age uncertainties for the ages of individual vents, often spanning the estimated age for the entire volcanic field. The age model derived from impact crater counts alone is broad and unimodal, with estimated peak activity in the field around 130Ma (megaannum, 1 million years). Next we applied our volcano event age model (VEAM), which uses a directed graph of stratigraphic relationships and random sampling of the impact crater age determinations to create alternative age models. Monte Carlo simulation was used to create 10,000 possible vent age sets. The recurrence rate of volcanism is calculated for each possible age set, and these rates are combined to calculate the median recurrence rate of all simulations. Applying this approach to the 29 volcanic vents, volcanism likely began around 200-300Ma then first peaked around 150Ma, with an average production rate of 0.4 vents per Myr (million years). The recurrence rate estimated including stratigraphic data is distinctly bimodal, with a second, lower peak in activity around 100Ma. Volcanism then waned until the final vents were produced 10-90Ma. Based on this model, volume flux is also bimodal, reached a peak rate of 1-8 cubic kilometers per million years by 150Ma and remained above half this rate until about 90Ma, after which the volume flux diminished greatly. The onset of effusive volcanism from 200-150Ma might be due to a transition of volcanic style away from explosive volcanism that emplaced tephra on the western flank of Arsia Mons, while the waning of volcanism after the 150Ma peak might represent a larger-scale diminishing of volcanic activity at Arsia Mons related to the emplacement of flank apron lavas.

Comparison of potentially preventable hospitalizations related to diabetes among Native Hawaiian, Chinese, Filipino, and Japanese elderly compared with whites, Hawai'i, December 2006-December 2010.

PubMed

Sentell, Tetine L; Ahn, Hyeong Jun; Juarez, Deborah T; Tseng, Chien-Wen; Chen, John J; Salvail, Florentina R; Miyamura, Jill; Mau, Marjorie L M

2013-07-25

Approximately 25% of individuals aged 65 years or older in the United States have diabetes mellitus. Diabetes rates in this age group are higher for Asian American and Pacific Islanders (AA/PI) than for whites. We examined racial/ethnic differences in diabetes-related potentially preventable hospitalizations (DRPH) among people aged 65 years or older for Japanese, Chinese, Filipinos, Native Hawaiians, and whites. Discharge data for hospitalizations in Hawai'i for people aged 65 years or older from December 2006 through December 2010 were compared. Annual rates of DRPH by patient were calculated for each racial/ethnic group by sex. Rate ratios (RRs) were calculated relative to whites. Multivariable models controlling for insurer, comorbidity, diabetes prevalence, age, and residence location provided final adjusted rates and RRs. A total of 1,815 DRPH were seen from 1,515 unique individuals. Unadjusted RRs for DRPH by patient were greater than 1 in all AA/PI study groups compared with whites, but were highest among Native Hawaiians and Filipinos [corrected]. In fully adjusted models accounting for higher diabetes prevalence in AA/PI groups, Native Hawaiian (adjusted rate ratio [aRR] = 1.59), Filipino (aRR = 2.26), and Japanese (aRR = 1.86) men retained significantly higher rates of diabetes-related potentially preventable hospitalizations than whites, as did Filipino women (aRR = 1.61). Native Hawaiian, Filipino, and Japanese men and Filipino women aged 65 years or older have a higher risk than whites for DRPH. Health care providers and public health programs for elderly patients should consider effective programs to reduce potentially preventable hospitalizations among Native Hawaiian, Filipino, and Japanese men and Filipino women aged 65 years or older.

Evaluating methodological assumptions of a catch-curve survival estimation of unmarked precocial shorebird chickes

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGowan, Conor P.; Gardner, Beth

2013-01-01

Estimating productivity for precocial species can be difficult because young birds leave their nest within hours or days of hatching and detectability thereafter can be very low. Recently, a method for using a modified catch-curve to estimate precocial chick daily survival for age based count data was presented using Piping Plover (Charadrius melodus) data from the Missouri River. However, many of the assumptions of the catch-curve approach were not fully evaluated for precocial chicks. We developed a simulation model to mimic Piping Plovers, a fairly representative shorebird, and age-based count-data collection. Using the simulated data, we calculated daily survival estimates and compared them with the known daily survival rates from the simulation model. We conducted these comparisons under different sampling scenarios where the ecological and statistical assumptions had been violated. Overall, the daily survival estimates calculated from the simulated data corresponded well with true survival rates of the simulation. Violating the accurate aging and the independence assumptions did not result in biased daily survival estimates, whereas unequal detection for younger or older birds and violating the birth death equilibrium did result in estimator bias. Assuring that all ages are equally detectable and timing data collection to approximately meet the birth death equilibrium are key to the successful use of this method for precocial shorebirds.

Correspondence between theoretical models and dual energy x-ray absorptiometry measurements of femoral cross-sectional growth during adolescence

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

van der Meulen, M. C.; Marcus, R.; Bachrach, L. K.; Carter, D. R.

1997-01-01

We have developed an analytical model of long bone cross-sectional ontogeny in which appositional growth of the diaphysis is primarily driven by mechanical stimuli associated with increasing body mass during growth and development. In this study, our goal was to compare theoretical predictions of femoral diaphyseal structure from this model with measurements of femoral bone mineral and geometry by dual energy x-ray absorptiometry. Measurements of mid-diaphyseal femoral geometry and structure were made previously in 101 Caucasian adolescents and young adults 9-26 years of age. The data on measured bone mineral content and calculated section modulus were compared with the results of our analytical model of cross-sectional development of the human femur over the same age range. Both bone mineral content and section modulus showed good correspondence with experimental measurements when the relationships with age and body mass were examined. Strong linear relationships were evident for both parameters when examined as a function of body mass.

High-Precision Plutonium Isotopic Compositions Measured on Los Alamos National Laboratory’s General’s Tanks Samples: Bearing on Model Ages, Reactor Modelling, and Sources of Material. Further Discussion of Chronometry

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Spencer, Khalil J.; Rim, Jung Ho; Porterfield, Donivan R.

2015-06-29

In this study, we re-analyzed late-1940’s, Manhattan Project era Plutonium-rich sludge samples recovered from the ''General’s Tanks'' located within the nation’s oldest Plutonium processing facility, Technical Area 21. These samples were initially characterized by lower accuracy, and lower precision mass spectrometric techniques. We report here information that was previously not discernable: the two tanks contain isotopically distinct Pu not only for the major (i.e., 240Pu, 239Pu) but trace ( 238Pu , 241Pu, 242Pu) isotopes. Revised isotopics slightly changed the calculated 241Am- 241Pu model ages and interpretations.

The elasticity and failure of fluid-filled cellular solids: Theory and experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Warner, M.; Thiel, B. L.; Donald, A. M.

2000-02-01

We extend and apply theories of filled foam elasticity and failure to recently available data on foods. The predictions of elastic modulus and failure mode dependence on internal pressure and on wall integrity are borne out by photographic evidence of distortion and failure under compressive loading and under the localized stress applied by a knife blade, and by mechanical data on vegetables differing only in their turgor pressure. We calculate the dry modulus of plate-like cellular solids and the cross over between dry-like and fully fluid-filled elastic response. The bulk elastic properties of limp and aging cellular solids are calculated for model systems and compared with our mechanical data, which also show two regimes of response. The mechanics of an aged, limp beam is calculated, thus offering a practical procedure for comparing experiment and theory. This investigation also thereby offers explanations of the connection between turgor pressure and crispness and limpness of cellular materials.

The elasticity and failure of fluid-filled cellular solids: theory and experiment.

PubMed

Warner, M; Thiel, B L; Donald, A M

2000-02-15

We extend and apply theories of filled foam elasticity and failure to recently available data on foods. The predictions of elastic modulus and failure mode dependence on internal pressure and on wall integrity are borne out by photographic evidence of distortion and failure under compressive loading and under the localized stress applied by a knife blade, and by mechanical data on vegetables differing only in their turgor pressure. We calculate the dry modulus of plate-like cellular solids and the cross over between dry-like and fully fluid-filled elastic response. The bulk elastic properties of limp and aging cellular solids are calculated for model systems and compared with our mechanical data, which also show two regimes of response. The mechanics of an aged, limp beam is calculated, thus offering a practical procedure for comparing experiment and theory. This investigation also thereby offers explanations of the connection between turgor pressure and crispness and limpness of cellular materials.

The elasticity and failure of fluid-filled cellular solids: Theory and experiment

PubMed Central

Warner, M.; Thiel, B. L.; Donald, A. M.

2000-01-01

We extend and apply theories of filled foam elasticity and failure to recently available data on foods. The predictions of elastic modulus and failure mode dependence on internal pressure and on wall integrity are borne out by photographic evidence of distortion and failure under compressive loading and under the localized stress applied by a knife blade, and by mechanical data on vegetables differing only in their turgor pressure. We calculate the dry modulus of plate-like cellular solids and the cross over between dry-like and fully fluid-filled elastic response. The bulk elastic properties of limp and aging cellular solids are calculated for model systems and compared with our mechanical data, which also show two regimes of response. The mechanics of an aged, limp beam is calculated, thus offering a practical procedure for comparing experiment and theory. This investigation also thereby offers explanations of the connection between turgor pressure and crispness and limpness of cellular materials. PMID:10660680

Latitudinal comparisons of walleye growth in North America and factors influencing growth of walleyes in Kansas reservoirs

USGS Publications Warehouse

Quist, M.C.; Guy, C.S.; Schultz, R.D.; Stephen, J.L.

2003-01-01

We compared the growth of walleyes Stizostedion vitreum in Kansas to that of other populations throughout North America and determined the effects of the abundance of gizzard shad Dorosoma cepedianum and temperature on the growth of walleyes in Kansas reservoirs. Age was estimated from scales and otoliths collected from walleyes (N = 2,072) sampled with gill nets from eight Kansas reservoirs during fall in 1991-1999. Age-0 gizzard shad abundance was indexed based on summer seining information, and temperature data were obtained from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Parameter estimates of von Bertalanffy growth models indicated that the growth of walleyes in Kansas was more similar to that of southern latitude populations (e.g., Mississippi and Texas) than to that of northern (e.g., Manitoba, Minnesota and South Dakota) or middle latitude (e.g., Colorado and Iowa) populations. Northern and middle latitude populations had lower mean back-calculated lengths at age 1, lower growth coefficients, and greater longevity than southern and Kansas populations. A relative growth index (RGI; [Lt/Ls ] ?? 100, where Lt is the observed length at age and Ls is the age-specific standard length derived from a pooled von Bertalanffy growth model) and standardized percentile values (percentile values of mean back-calculated lengths at age) indicated that the growth of walleyes in Kansas was above average compared with that of other populations in North America. The annual growth increments of Kansas walleyes were more variable among years than among reservoirs. The growth increments of age-0 and age-1 walleyes were positively related to the catch rates of gizzard shad smaller than 80 mm, whereas the growth of age-2 and age-3 walleyes was inversely related to mean summer air temperature. Our results provide a framework for comparing North American walleye populations, and our proposed RGI provides a simple, easily interpreted index of growth.

Validity of VO(2 max) in predicting blood volume: implications for the effect of fitness on aging

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Convertino, V. A.; Ludwig, D. A.

2000-01-01

A multiple regression model was constructed to investigate the premise that blood volume (BV) could be predicted using several anthropometric variables, age, and maximal oxygen uptake (VO(2 max)). To test this hypothesis, age, calculated body surface area (height/weight composite), percent body fat (hydrostatic weight), and VO(2 max) were regressed on to BV using data obtained from 66 normal healthy men. Results from the evaluation of the full model indicated that the most parsimonious result was obtained when age and VO(2 max) were regressed on BV expressed per kilogram body weight. The full model accounted for 52% of the total variance in BV per kilogram body weight. Both age and VO(2 max) were related to BV in the positive direction. Percent body fat contributed <1% to the explained variance in BV when expressed in absolute BV (ml) or as BV per kilogram body weight. When the model was cross validated on 41 new subjects and BV per kilogram body weight was reexpressed as raw BV, the results indicated that the statistical model would be stable under cross validation (e.g., predictive applications) with an accuracy of +/- 1,200 ml at 95% confidence. Our results support the hypothesis that BV is an increasing function of aerobic fitness and to a lesser extent the age of the subject. The results may have implication as to a mechanism by which aerobic fitness and activity may be protective against reduced BV associated with aging.

Dose of Dialysis Based on Body Surface Area Is Markedly Less in Younger Children Than in Older Adolescents

PubMed Central

Hanna, Melisha G.; Becker-Cohen, Rachel; Langman, Craig B.

2010-01-01

Background and observations: The current denominator for dosing dialysis is the urea distribution volume (V). Normalizing Kt/V to body surface area (S) has been proposed, but the implications of doing this in children have not been examined. Design, setting, participants, & measurements: Dialysis dose given to children and adolescents was calculated in terms of conventional V-based scaling and surface-area-normalized standard Kt/V (SAN-stdKt/V) calculated as stdKt/V·(Vant/S)/17.5, where Vant was an anthropometric estimate of V calculated using the Morgenstern equation. Formal 2-pool modeling was used to compute all dialysis adequacy outputs. Results: In 34 children (11 girls, 23 boys) dialyzed 3 times a week, age range 1.4 to 18 years, the mean delivered equilibrated Kt/V (eKt/V) was 1.40, and the mean stdKt/V was 2.49, both of which tended to be higher in younger children. The ratio of Vant to S was 15.6 ± 2.69 and was strongly associated with age between ages 2 and 16. SAN-stdKt/V averaged 2.21 and was strongly correlated with age between ages 2 and 16. If one considers a desired target for SAN-stdKt/V to be 2.45, all children less than 10 years of age were below target, despite having relatively high values of eKt/V and stdKt/V. Conclusions: If a surface-area-based denominator were to be adopted for dialysis dosing, most children under 10 years of age would receive markedly less dialysis than adolescent patients and would require 6- to 8-hour hemodialysis sessions or, for the youngest children, treatments given more frequently than 3 times/wk. PMID:20299373

Dose of dialysis based on body surface area is markedly less in younger children than in older adolescents.

PubMed

Daugirdas, John T; Hanna, Melisha G; Becker-Cohen, Rachel; Langman, Craig B

2010-05-01

BACKGROUND AND OBSERVATIONS: The current denominator for dosing dialysis is the urea distribution volume (V). Normalizing Kt/V to body surface area (S) has been proposed, but the implications of doing this in children have not been examined. Dialysis dose given to children and adolescents was calculated in terms of conventional V-based scaling and surface-area-normalized standard Kt/V (SAN-stdKt/V) calculated as stdKt/V x (Vant/S)/17.5, where Vant was an anthropometric estimate of V calculated using the Morgenstern equation. Formal 2-pool modeling was used to compute all dialysis adequacy outputs. In 34 children (11 girls, 23 boys) dialyzed 3 times a week, age range 1.4 to 18 years, the mean delivered equilibrated Kt/V (eKt/V) was 1.40, and the mean stdKt/V was 2.49, both of which tended to be higher in younger children. The ratio of Vant to S was 15.6 +/- 2.69 and was strongly associated with age between ages 2 and 16. SAN-stdKt/V averaged 2.21 and was strongly correlated with age between ages 2 and 16. If one considers a desired target for SAN-stdKt/V to be 2.45, all children less than 10 years of age were below target, despite having relatively high values of eKt/V and stdKt/V. If a surface-area-based denominator were to be adopted for dialysis dosing, most children under 10 years of age would receive markedly less dialysis than adolescent patients and would require 6- to 8-hour hemodialysis sessions or, for the youngest children, treatments given more frequently than 3 times/wk.

Revisiting thermodynamics and kinetic diffusivities of uranium–niobium with Bayesian uncertainty analysis

DOE PAGES

Duong, Thien C.; Hackenberg, Robert E.; Landa, Alex; ...

2016-09-20

In this paper, thermodynamic and kinetic diffusivities of uranium–niobium (U–Nb) are re-assessed by means of the CALPHAD (CALculation of PHAse Diagram) methodology. In order to improve the consistency and reliability of the assessments, first-principles calculations are coupled with CALPHAD. In particular, heats of formation of γ -U–Nb are estimated and verified using various density-functional theory (DFT) approaches. These thermochemistry data are then used as constraints to guide the thermodynamic optimization process in such a way that the mutual-consistency between first-principles calculations and CALPHAD assessment is satisfactory. In addition, long-term aging experiments are conducted in order to generate new phase equilibriamore » data at the γ 2/α+γ 2 boundary. These data are meant to verify the thermodynamic model. Assessment results are generally in good agreement with experiments and previous calculations, without showing the artifacts that were observed in previous modeling. The mutual-consistent thermodynamic description is then used to evaluate atomic mobility and diffusivity of γ-U–Nb. Finally, Bayesian analysis is conducted to evaluate the uncertainty of the thermodynamic model and its impact on the system's phase stability.« less

Prioritization of pesticides based on daily dietary exposure potential as determined from the SHEDS model

EPA Science Inventory

A major pathway for exposure to many pesticides is through diet. The objectives were to rank pesticides by comparing their calculated daily dietary exposure as determined by EPA's Stochastic Human Exposure and Dose Simulation (SHEDS) to single pesticides for different age groups ...

A Critical Assessment of Ages Derived Using Pre-Main-Sequence Isochrones in Colour-Magnitude Diagrams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bell, Cameron P. M.

2012-11-01

In this thesis a critical assessment of the ages derived using theoretical pre-main-sequence (pre-MS) stellar evolutionary models is presented by comparing the predictions to the low-mass pre-MS population of 14 young star-forming regions (SFRs) in colour-magnitude diagrams (CMDs). Deriving pre-MS ages requires precise distances and estimates of the reddening. Therefore, the main-sequence (MS) members of the SFRs have been used to derive a self-consistent set of statistically robust ages, distances and reddenings with associated uncertainties using a maximum-likelihood fitting statistic and MS evolutionary models. A photometric method for de-reddening individual stars - known as the Q-method - in regions where the extinction is spatially variable has been updated and is presented. The effects of both the model dependency and the SFR composition on these derived parameters are also discussed. The problem of calibrating photometric observations of red pre-MS stars is examined and it is shown that using observations of MS stars to transform the data into a standard photometric system can introduce significant errors in the position of the pre-MS locus in CMD space. Hence, it is crucial that precise photometric studies - especially of pre-MS objects - be carried out in the natural photometric system of the observations. This therefore requires a robust model of the system responses for the instrument used, and thus the calculated responses for the Wide-Field Camera on the Isaac Newton Telescope are presented. These system responses have been tested using standard star observations and have been shown to be a good representation of the photometric system. A benchmark test for the pre-MS evolutionary models is performed by comparing them to a set of well-calibrated CMDs of the Pleiades in the wavelength regime 0.4-2.5 μm. The masses predicted by these models are also tested against dynamical masses using a sample of MS binaries by calculating the system magnitude in a given photometric bandpass. This analysis shows that for Teff ≤ 4000 K the models systematically overestimate the flux by a factor of 2 at 0.5 μm, though this decreases with wavelength, becoming negligible at 2.2 μm. Thus before the pre-MS models are used to derive ages, a recalibration of the models is performed by incorporating an empirical colour-Teff relation and bolometric corrections based on the Ks-band luminosity of Pleiades members, with theoretical corrections for the dependence on the surface gravity (log g). The recalibrated pre-MS model isochrones are used to derive ages from the pre-MS populations of the SFRs. These ages are then compared with the MS derivations, thus providing a powerful diagnostic tool with which to discriminate between the different pre-MS age scales that arise from a much stronger model dependency in the pre-MS regime. The revised ages assigned to each of the 14 SFRs are up to a factor two older than previous derivations, a result with wide-ranging implications, including that circumstellar discs survive longer and that the average Class II lifetime is greater than currently believed.

Third molar development: measurements versus scores as age predictor.

PubMed

Thevissen, P W; Fieuws, S; Willems, G

2011-10-01

Human third molar development is widely used to predict chronological age of sub adult individuals with unknown or doubted age. For these predictions, classically, the radiologically observed third molar growth and maturation is registered using a staging and related scoring technique. Measures of lengths and widths of the developing wisdom tooth and its adjacent second molar can be considered as an alternative registration. The aim of this study was to verify relations between mandibular third molar developmental stages or measurements of mandibular second molar and third molars and age. Age related performance of stages and measurements were compared to assess if measurements added information to age predictions from third molar formation stage. The sample was 340 orthopantomograms (170 females, 170 males) of individuals homogenously distributed in age between 7 and 24 years. Mandibular lower right, third and second molars, were staged following Gleiser and Hunt, length and width measurements were registered, and various ratios of these measurements were calculated. Univariable regression models with age as response and third molar stage, measurements and ratios of second and third molars as predictors, were considered. Multivariable regression models assessed if measurements or ratios added information to age prediction from third molar stage. Coefficients of determination (R(2)) and root mean squared errors (RMSE) obtained from all regression models were compared. The univariable regression model using stages as predictor yielded most accurate age predictions (males: R(2) 0.85, RMSE between 0.85 and 1.22 year; females: R(2) 0.77, RMSE between 1.19 and 2.11 year) compared to all models including measurements and ratios. The multivariable regression models indicated that measurements and ratios added no clinical relevant information to the age prediction from third molar stage. Ratios and measurements of second and third molars are less accurate age predictors than stages of developing third molars. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimating 14C groundwater ages in a methanogenic aquifer

USGS Publications Warehouse

Aravena, Ramon; Wassenaar, Leonard I; Plummer, Niel

1995-01-01

This paper addresses the problem of 14C age dating of groundwaters in a confined regional aquifer affected by methanogenesis. Increasing CH4 concentrations along the groundwater flow system and 13C and 14C isotopic data for dissolved inorganic carbon, dissolved organic carbon, and CH4 clearly show the effect of methanogenesis on groundwater chemistry. Inverse reaction path modeling using NETPATH indicates the predominant geochemical reactions controlling the chemical evolution of groundwater in the aquifer are incongruent dissolution of dolomite, ion exchange, methanogenesis, and oxidation of sedimentary organic matter. Modeling of groundwater 14C ages using NETPATH indicates that a significant part of groundwater in the Alliston aquifer is less than 13,000 years old; however, older groundwater in the range of 15,000–23,000 years is also present in the aquifer. This paper demonstrates that 14C ages calculated using NETPATH, incorporating the effects of methanogenesis on the carbon pools, provide reasonable groundwater ages that were not possible by other isotopic methods.

Assessment of Public Health and Economic Impact of Intranasal Live-Attenuated Influenza Vaccination of Children in France Using a Dynamic Transmission Model.

PubMed

Gerlier, L; Lamotte, M; Grenèche, S; Lenne, X; Carrat, F; Weil-Olivier, C; Damm, O; Schwehm, M; Eichner, M

2017-04-01

We estimated the epidemiological and economic impact of extending the French influenza vaccination programme from at-risk/elderly (≥65 years) only to healthy children (2-17 years). A deterministic, age-structured, dynamic transmission model was used to simulate the transmission of influenza in the French population, using the current vaccination coverage with trivalent inactivated vaccine (TIV) in at-risk/elderly individuals (current strategy) or gradually extending the vaccination to healthy children (aged 2-17 years) with intranasal, quadrivalent live-attenuated influenza vaccine (QLAIV) from current uptake up to 50% (evaluated strategy). Epidemiological, medical resource use and cost data were taken from international literature and country-specific information. The model was calibrated to the observed numbers of influenza-like illness visits/year. The 10-year number of symptomatic cases of confirmed influenza and direct medical costs ('all-payer') were calculated for the 0-17- (direct and indirect effects) and ≥18-year-old (indirect effect). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was calculated for the total population, using a 4% discount rate/year. Assuming 2.3 million visits/year and 1960 deaths/year, the model calibration yielded an all-year average basic reproduction number (R 0 ) of 1.27. In the population aged 0-17 years, QLAIV prevented 865,000 influenza cases/year (58.4%), preventing 10-year direct medical expenses of €374 million. In those aged ≥18 years with unchanged TIV coverage, 1.2 million cases/year were averted (27.6%) via indirect effects (additionally prevented expenses, €457 million). On average, 613 influenza-related deaths were averted annually overall. The ICER was €18,001/life-year gained. The evaluated strategy had a 98% probability of being cost-effective at a €31,000/life-year gained threshold. The model demonstrated strong direct and indirect benefits of protecting healthy children against influenza with QLAIV on public health and economic outcomes in France.

External prognostic validations and comparisons of age- and gender-adjusted exercise capacity predictions.

PubMed

Kim, Esther S H; Ishwaran, Hemant; Blackstone, Eugene; Lauer, Michael S

2007-11-06

The purpose of this study was to externally validate the prognostic value of age- and gender-based nomograms and categorical definitions of impaired exercise capacity (EC). Exercise capacity predicts death, but its use in routine clinical practice is hampered by its close correlation with age and gender. For a median of 5 years, we followed 22,275 patients without known heart disease who underwent symptom-limited stress testing. Models for predicted or impaired EC were identified by literature search. Gender-specific multivariable proportional hazards models were constructed. Four methods were used to assess validity: Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), right-censored c-index in 100 out-of-bootstrap samples, the Nagelkerke Index R2, and calculation of calibration error in 100 bootstrap samples. There were 646 and 430 deaths in 13,098 men and 9,177 women, respectively. Of the 7 models tested in men, a model based on a Veterans Affairs cohort (predicted metabolic equivalents [METs] = 18 - [0.15 x age]) had the highest AIC and R2. In women, a model based on the St. James Take Heart Project (predicted METs = 14.7 - [0.13 x age]) performed best. Categorical definitions of fitness performed less well. Even after accounting for age and gender, there was still an important interaction with age, whereby predicted EC was a weaker predictor in older subjects (p for interaction <0.001 in men and 0.003 in women). Several methods describe EC accounting for age and gender-related differences, but their ability to predict mortality differ. Simple cutoff values fail to fully describe EC's strong predictive value.

Mathematical modeling of a survey-meter used to measure radioactivity in human thyroids: Monte Carlo calculations of the device response and uncertainties

PubMed Central

Khrutchinsky, Arkady; Drozdovitch, Vladimir; Kutsen, Semion; Minenko, Victor; Khrouch, Valeri; Luckyanov, Nickolas; Voillequé, Paul; Bouville, André

2012-01-01

This paper presents results of Monte Carlo modeling of the SRP-68-01 survey meter used to measure exposure rates near the thyroid glands of persons exposed to radioactivity following the Chernobyl accident. This device was not designed to measure radioactivity in humans. To estimate the uncertainty associated with the measurement results, a mathematical model of the SRP-68-01 survey meter was developed and verified. A Monte Carlo method of numerical simulation of radiation transport has been used to calculate the calibration factor for the device and evaluate its uncertainty. The SRP-68-01 survey meter scale coefficient, an important characteristic of the device, was also estimated in this study. The calibration factors of the survey meter were calculated for 131I, 132I, 133I, and 135I content in the thyroid gland for six age groups of population: newborns; children aged 1 yr, 5 yr, 10 yr, 15 yr; and adults. A realistic scenario of direct thyroid measurements with an “extended” neck was used to calculate the calibration factors for newborns and one-year-olds. Uncertainties in the device calibration factors due to variability of the device scale coefficient, variability in thyroid mass and statistical uncertainty of Monte Carlo method were evaluated. Relative uncertainties in the calibration factor estimates were found to be from 0.06 for children aged 1 yr to 0.1 for 10-yr and 15-yr children. The positioning errors of the detector during measurements deviate mainly in one direction from the estimated calibration factors. Deviations of the device position from the proper geometry of measurements were found to lead to overestimation of the calibration factor by up to 24 percent for adults and up to 60 percent for 1-yr children. The results of this study improve the estimates of 131I thyroidal content and, consequently, thyroid dose estimates that are derived from direct thyroid measurements performed in Belarus shortly after the Chernobyl accident. PMID:22245289

[Incidence and survival of esophageal cancer with different histological types in Linzhou between 2003 and 2012].

PubMed

Liu, S Z; Yu, L; Chen, Q; Quan, P L; Cao, X Q; Sun, X B

2017-05-06

Objective: To investigate the incidence and survival of esophageal cancer with different histological types and to understand the incidence trend and burden of esophageal cancer in Linzhou during 2003-2012. Methods: All incidence records of esophageal cancer and population reported were collected from Linzhou Cancer Registry during 2003-2012. Incidence rate was calculated using gender and histological types. Age standardized incidence rate was calculated according to world Segi's population and Chinese census data in 2000. Age standardized incidence rate by world population between 2003 and 2012 was analyzed with JoinPoint regression model and estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was calculated. 5-year survival rate was calculated with Kaplan-Meier model. Results: There were 8 229 esophageal cancer cases in Linzhou during 2003-2012. The average annual incidence rate was 80.08/100 000 (8 229/10 276 481). Among all esophageal cancer cases, 7 019 (85.3%) were diagnosed as esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). In Linzhou, the age standardized incidence rate by Chinese standard population and by world standard population was 80.92/100 000 and 81.85/100 000 in 2003, 67.97/100 000 and 68.63/100 000 in 2012. JoinPoint regression model showed that EAPC was-12.9% (95 %CI: -16.4%--9.1%) for other and unspecified histological type between 2003 and 2012. The EAPC was-5.5% (95 %CI: -9.2%--1.6%) for esophageal cancer between 2007 and 2012,-5.4% (95 %CI: -7.0%--3.9%) for esophageal cancer in female between 2006 and 2012,-4.9% (95 %CI: -9.5%--0.1%) for ESCC between 2007 and 2012. The 5-year prevalence of esophageal cancer was 215.49 per 100 000 (2 337/1 084 493), and 5 489 died within 5 years after incidence. 5-year survival rate of esophageal cancer was 34.6% (95 %CI: 33.5%-35.6%). Conclusion: Esophageal cancer had a decreasing trend in Linzhou. The survival rate was increasing. But, esophageal cancer was still a major burden in Linzhou. The major histological type was ESCC. ESCC had a similar decreasing trend with esophageal cancer.

A revised burial dose estimation procedure for optical dating of youngand modern-age sediments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Arnold, L.J.; Roberts, R.G.; Galbraith, R.F.; DeLong, S.B.

2009-01-01

The presence of genuinely zero-age or near-zero-age grains in modern-age and very young samples poses a problem for many existing burial dose estimation procedures used in optical (optically stimulated luminescence, OSL) dating. This difficulty currently necessitates consideration of relatively simplistic and statistically inferior age models. In this study, we investigate the potential for using modified versions of the statistical age models of Galbraith et??al. [Galbraith, R.F., Roberts, R.G., Laslett, G.M., Yoshida, H., Olley, J.M., 1999. Optical dating of single and multiple grains of quartz from Jinmium rock shelter, northern Australia: Part I, experimental design and statistical models. Archaeometry 41, 339-364.] to provide reliable equivalent dose (De) estimates for young and modern-age samples that display negative, zero or near-zero De estimates. For this purpose, we have revised the original versions of the central and minimum age models, which are based on log-transformed De values, so that they can be applied to un-logged De estimates and their associated absolute standard errors. The suitability of these 'un-logged' age models is tested using a series of known-age fluvial samples deposited within two arroyo systems from the American Southwest. The un-logged age models provide accurate burial doses and final OSL ages for roughly three-quarters of the total number of samples considered in this study. Sensitivity tests reveal that the un-logged versions of the central and minimum age models are capable of producing accurate burial dose estimates for modern-age and very young (<350??yr) fluvial samples that contain (i) more than 20% of well-bleached grains in their De distributions, or (ii) smaller sub-populations of well-bleached grains for which the De values are known with high precision. Our results indicate that the original (log-transformed) versions of the central and minimum age models are still preferable for most routine dating applications, since these age models are better suited to the statistical properties of typical single-grain and multi-grain single-aliquot De datasets. However, the unique error properties of modern-age samples, combined with the problems of calculating natural logarithms of negative or zero-Gy De values, mean that the un-logged versions of the central and minimum age models currently offer the most suitable means of deriving accurate burial dose estimates for very young and modern-age samples. ?? 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Monitoring cure of composite resins using frequency dependent electromagnetic sensing techniques

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kranbuehl, D. E.; Hoff, M. S.; Loos, A. C.; Freeman, W. T., Jr.; Eichinger, D. A.

1988-01-01

A nondestructive in situ measurement technique has been developed for monitoring and measuring the cure processing properties of composite resins. Frequency dependent electromagnetic sensors (FDEMS) were used to directly measure resin viscosity during cure. The effects of the cure cycle and resin aging on the viscosity during cure were investigated using the sensor. Viscosity measurements obtained using the sensor are compared with the viscosities calculated by the Loos-Springer cure process model. Good overall agreement was obtained except for the aged resin samples.

Monte Carlo calculation of the neutron dose to a fetus at commercial flight altitudes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alves, M. C.; Galeano, D. C.; Santos, W. S.; Hunt, John G.; d'Errico, Francesco; Souza, S. O.; de Carvalho Júnior, A. B.

2017-11-01

Aircrew members are exposed to primary cosmic rays as well as to secondary radiations from the interaction of cosmic rays with the atmosphere and with the aircraft. The radiation field at flight altitudes comprises neutrons, protons, electrons, positrons, photons, muons and pions. Generally, 50% of the effective dose to airplane passengers is due to neutrons. Care must be taken especially with pregnant aircrew members and frequent fliers so that the equivalent dose to the fetus will not exceed prescribed limits during pregnancy (1 mSv according to ICRP, and 5 mSv according to NCRP). Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate the equivalent dose to a fetus in the maternal womb. Up to now, the equivalent dose rate to a fetus at commercial flight altitudes was obtained using stylized pregnant-female phantom models. The aim of this study was calculating neutron fluence to dose conversion coefficients for a fetus of six months of gestation age using a new, realistic pregnant-female mesh-phantom. The equivalent dose rate to a fetus during an intercontinental flight was also calculated by folding our conversion coefficients with published spectral neutron flux data. The calculated equivalent dose rate to the fetus was 2.35 μSv.h-1, that is 1.5 times higher than equivalent dose rates reported in the literature. The neutron fluence to dose conversion coefficients for the fetus calculated in this study were 2.7, 3.1 and 3.9 times higher than those from previous studies using fetus models of 3, 6 and 9 months of gestation age, respectively. The differences between our study and data from the literature highlight the importance of using more realistic anthropomorphic phantoms to estimate doses to a fetus in pregnant aircrew members.

A dynamic optimization model of the diel vertical distribution of a pelagic planktivorous fish

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosland, Rune; Giske, Jarl

A stochastic dynamic optimization model for the diel depth distribution of juveniles and adults of the mesopelagic planktivore Maurolicus muelleri (Gmelin) is developed and used for a winter situation. Observations from Masfjorden, western Norway, reveal differences in vertical distribution, growth and mortality between juveniles and adults in January. Juveniles stay within the upper 100m with high feeding rates, while adults stay within the 100-150m zone with very low feeding rates during the diel cycle. The difference in depth profitability is assumed to be caused by age-dependent processes, and are calculated from a mechanistic model for visual feeding. The environment is described as a set of habitats represented by discrete depth intervals along the vertical axis, differing with respect to light intensity, food abundance, predation risk and temperature. The short time interval (24h) allows fitness to be linearly related to growth (feeding), assuming that growth increases the future reproductive output of the fish. Optimal depth position is calculated from balancing feeding opportunity against mortality risk, where the fitness reward gained by feeding is weighted against the danger of being killed by a predator. A basic run is established, and the model is validated by comparing predictions and observations. The sensitivity for different parameter values is also tested. The modelled vertical distributions and feeding patterns of juvenile and adult fish correspond well with the observations, and the assumption of age differences in mortality-feeding trade-offs seems adequate to explain the different depth profitability of the two age groups. The results indicate a preference for crepuscular feeding activity of the juveniles, and the vertical distribution of zooplankton seems to be the most important environmental factor regulating the adult depth position during the winter months in Masfjorden.

Applicability and accuracy of pretest probability calculations implemented in the NICE clinical guideline for decision making about imaging in patients with chest pain of recent onset.

PubMed

Roehle, Robert; Wieske, Viktoria; Schuetz, Georg M; Gueret, Pascal; Andreini, Daniele; Meijboom, Willem Bob; Pontone, Gianluca; Garcia, Mario; Alkadhi, Hatem; Honoris, Lily; Hausleiter, Jörg; Bettencourt, Nuno; Zimmermann, Elke; Leschka, Sebastian; Gerber, Bernhard; Rochitte, Carlos; Schoepf, U Joseph; Shabestari, Abbas Arjmand; Nørgaard, Bjarne; Sato, Akira; Knuuti, Juhani; Meijs, Matthijs F L; Brodoefel, Harald; Jenkins, Shona M M; Øvrehus, Kristian Altern; Diederichsen, Axel Cosmus Pyndt; Hamdan, Ashraf; Halvorsen, Bjørn Arild; Mendoza Rodriguez, Vladimir; Wan, Yung Liang; Rixe, Johannes; Sheikh, Mehraj; Langer, Christoph; Ghostine, Said; Martuscelli, Eugenio; Niinuma, Hiroyuki; Scholte, Arthur; Nikolaou, Konstantin; Ulimoen, Geir; Zhang, Zhaoqi; Mickley, Hans; Nieman, Koen; Kaufmann, Philipp A; Buechel, Ronny Ralf; Herzog, Bernhard A; Clouse, Melvin; Halon, David A; Leipsic, Jonathan; Bush, David; Jakamy, Reda; Sun, Kai; Yang, Lin; Johnson, Thorsten; Laissy, Jean-Pierre; Marcus, Roy; Muraglia, Simone; Tardif, Jean-Claude; Chow, Benjamin; Paul, Narinder; Maintz, David; Hoe, John; de Roos, Albert; Haase, Robert; Laule, Michael; Schlattmann, Peter; Dewey, Marc

2018-03-19

To analyse the implementation, applicability and accuracy of the pretest probability calculation provided by NICE clinical guideline 95 for decision making about imaging in patients with chest pain of recent onset. The definitions for pretest probability calculation in the original Duke clinical score and the NICE guideline were compared. We also calculated the agreement and disagreement in pretest probability and the resulting imaging and management groups based on individual patient data from the Collaborative Meta-Analysis of Cardiac CT (CoMe-CCT). 4,673 individual patient data from the CoMe-CCT Consortium were analysed. Major differences in definitions in the Duke clinical score and NICE guideline were found for the predictors age and number of risk factors. Pretest probability calculation using guideline criteria was only possible for 30.8 % (1,439/4,673) of patients despite availability of all required data due to ambiguity in guideline definitions for risk factors and age groups. Agreement regarding patient management groups was found in only 70 % (366/523) of patients in whom pretest probability calculation was possible according to both models. Our results suggest that pretest probability calculation for clinical decision making about cardiac imaging as implemented in the NICE clinical guideline for patients has relevant limitations. • Duke clinical score is not implemented correctly in NICE guideline 95. • Pretest probability assessment in NICE guideline 95 is impossible for most patients. • Improved clinical decision making requires accurate pretest probability calculation. • These refinements are essential for appropriate use of cardiac CT.

Ages and transit times as important diagnostics of model performance for predicting carbon dynamics in terrestrial vegetation models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ceballos-Núñez, Verónika; Richardson, Andrew D.; Sierra, Carlos A.

2018-03-01

The global carbon cycle is strongly controlled by the source/sink strength of vegetation as well as the capacity of terrestrial ecosystems to retain this carbon. These dynamics, as well as processes such as the mixing of old and newly fixed carbon, have been studied using ecosystem models, but different assumptions regarding the carbon allocation strategies and other model structures may result in highly divergent model predictions. We assessed the influence of three different carbon allocation schemes on the C cycling in vegetation. First, we described each model with a set of ordinary differential equations. Second, we used published measurements of ecosystem C compartments from the Harvard Forest Environmental Measurement Site to find suitable parameters for the different model structures. And third, we calculated C stocks, release fluxes, radiocarbon values (based on the bomb spike), ages, and transit times. We obtained model simulations in accordance with the available data, but the time series of C in foliage and wood need to be complemented with other ecosystem compartments in order to reduce the high parameter collinearity that we observed, and reduce model equifinality. Although the simulated C stocks in ecosystem compartments were similar, the different model structures resulted in very different predictions of age and transit time distributions. In particular, the inclusion of two storage compartments resulted in the prediction of a system mean age that was 12-20 years older than in the models with one or no storage compartments. The age of carbon in the wood compartment of this model was also distributed towards older ages, whereas fast cycling compartments had an age distribution that did not exceed 5 years. As expected, models with C distributed towards older ages also had longer transit times. These results suggest that ages and transit times, which can be indirectly measured using isotope tracers, serve as important diagnostics of model structure and could largely help to reduce uncertainties in model predictions. Furthermore, by considering age and transit times of C in vegetation compartments as distributions, not only their mean values, we obtain additional insights into the temporal dynamics of carbon use, storage, and allocation to plant parts, which not only depends on the rate at which this C is transferred in and out of the compartments but also on the stochastic nature of the process itself.

NetpathXL - An Excel Interface to the Program NETPATH

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parkhurst, David L.; Charlton, Scott R.

2008-01-01

NetpathXL is a revised version of NETPATH that runs under Windows? operating systems. NETPATH is a computer program that uses inverse geochemical modeling techniques to calculate net geochemical reactions that can account for changes in water composition between initial and final evolutionary waters in hydrologic systems. The inverse models also can account for the isotopic composition of waters and can be used to estimate radiocarbon ages of dissolved carbon in ground water. NETPATH relies on an auxiliary, database program, DB, to enter the chemical analyses and to perform speciation calculations that define total concentrations of elements, charge balance, and redox state of aqueous solutions that are then used in inverse modeling. Instead of DB, NetpathXL relies on Microsoft Excel? to enter the chemical analyses. The speciation calculation formerly included in DB is implemented within the program NetpathXL. A program DBXL can be used to translate files from the old DB format (.lon files) to NetpathXL spreadsheets, or to create new NetpathXL spreadsheets. Once users have a NetpathXL spreadsheet with the proper format, new spreadsheets can be generated by copying or saving NetpathXL spreadsheets. In addition, DBXL can convert NetpathXL spreadsheets to PHREEQC input files. New capabilities in PHREEQC (version 2.15) allow solution compositions to be written to a .lon file, and inverse models developed in PHREEQC to be written as NetpathXL .pat and model files. NetpathXL can open NetpathXL spreadsheets, NETPATH-format path files (.pat files), and NetpathXL-format path files (.pat files). Once the speciation calculations have been performed on a spreadsheet file or a .pat file has been opened, the NetpathXL calculation engine is identical to the original NETPATH. Development of models and viewing results in NetpathXL rely on keyboard entry as in NETPATH.

Age at menarche in urban Argentinian girls: association with biological and socioeconomic factors.

PubMed

Orden, Alicia B; Vericat, Agustina; Apezteguía, Maria C

2011-01-01

Age at menarche is regarded as a sensitive indicator of physical, biological, and psychosocial environment. The aim of this study was to determine the age at menarche and its association with biological and socioeconomic factors in girls from Santa Rosa (La Pampa, Argentina). An observational cross-sectional study was carried out on 1,221 schoolgirls aged 9-15 years. Menarche data were obtained by the status-quo method. Height, sitting height, weight, arm circumference, tricipital and subscapular skinfolds were measured. We also calculated body mass index, measures of body composition and proportions, and fat distribution. To assess socioeconomic factors, parents completed a self-administered questionnaire about their occupation and education, family size, household, and other family characteristics. The median age at menarche - estimated by the logit method--was 12.84 years (95% CI: 12.71, 12.97). Compared with their premenarcheal age peers, postmenarcheal girls had greater anthropometric dimensions through age 12. After this age, only height was higher in the latter group. Data were processed by fitting two logistic regressions, both including age. The first model included anthropometric variables and birth weight, while the second model included the socioeconomic variables. The significant variables derived from each model were incorporated into a new regression: height, sitting height ratio (first model), and maternal education (second model). These three variables remained significantly associated with menarche. The results suggest a relationship between linear growth and menarche and agree with those found in other populations where the advancement of menarche is associated with improved living conditions. In relatively uniform urban contexts, maternal education may be a good proxy for the standard of living.

A Serum miR Signature Specific to Low-Risk Prostate Cancer

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-09-01

useful pre-treatment risk calculators that use clinical parameters (age, biopsy grade, PSA ). These calculators accurately identify high-risk patients...aggressive disease. There are several useful pre-treatment risk calculators that use clinical parameters (age, biopsy grade, PSA ). These calculators

A revised method for calculation of life expectancy tables from individual death records which provides increased accuracy at advanced ages.

PubMed

Mathisen, R W; Mazess, R B

1981-02-01

The authors present a revised method for calculating life expectancy tables for populations where individual ages at death are known or can be estimated. The conventional and revised methods are compared using data for U.S. and Hungarian males in an attempt to determine the accuracy of each method in calculating life expectancy at advanced ages. Means of correcting errors caused by age rounding, age exaggeration, and infant mortality are presented

Epidemiology of Plasmodium falciparum gametocytemia in India: prevalence, age structure, risk factors and the role of a predictive score for detection.

PubMed

Shah, Naman K; Poole, Charles; MacDonald, Pia D M; Srivastava, Bina; Schapira, Allan; Juliano, Jonathan J; Anvikar, Anup; Meshnick, Steven R; Valecha, Neena; Mishra, Neelima

2013-07-01

To characterise the epidemiology of Plasmodium falciparum gametocytemia and determine the prevalence, age structure and the viability of a predictive model for detection. We collected data from 21 therapeutic efficacy trials conducted in India during 2009-2010 and estimated the contribution of each age group to the reservoir of transmission. We built a predictive model for gametocytemia and calculated the diagnostic utility of different score cut-offs from our risk score. Gametocytemia was present in 18% (248/1 335) of patients and decreased with age. Adults constituted 43%, school-age children 45% and under fives 12% of the reservoir for potential transmission. Our model retained age, sex, region and previous antimalarial drug intake as predictors of gametocytemia. The area under the receiver operator characteristic curve was 0.76 (95%CI:0.73,0.78), and a cut-off of 14 or more on a risk score ranging from 0 to 46 provided 91% (95%CI:88,95) sensitivity and 33% (95%CI:31,36) specificity for detecting gametocytemia. Gametocytemia was common in India and varied by region. Notably, adults contributed substantially to the reservoir for potential transmission. Predictive modelling to generate a clinical algorithm for detecting gametocytemia did not provide sufficient discrimination for targeting interventions. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Novel prediction model of renal function after nephrectomy from automated renal volumetry with preoperative multidetector computed tomography (MDCT).

PubMed

Isotani, Shuji; Shimoyama, Hirofumi; Yokota, Isao; Noma, Yasuhiro; Kitamura, Kousuke; China, Toshiyuki; Saito, Keisuke; Hisasue, Shin-ichi; Ide, Hisamitsu; Muto, Satoru; Yamaguchi, Raizo; Ukimura, Osamu; Gill, Inderbir S; Horie, Shigeo

2015-10-01

The predictive model of postoperative renal function may impact on planning nephrectomy. To develop the novel predictive model using combination of clinical indices with computer volumetry to measure the preserved renal cortex volume (RCV) using multidetector computed tomography (MDCT), and to prospectively validate performance of the model. Total 60 patients undergoing radical nephrectomy from 2011 to 2013 participated, including a development cohort of 39 patients and an external validation cohort of 21 patients. RCV was calculated by voxel count using software (Vincent, FUJIFILM). Renal function before and after radical nephrectomy was assessed via the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). Factors affecting postoperative eGFR were examined by regression analysis to develop the novel model for predicting postoperative eGFR with a backward elimination method. The predictive model was externally validated and the performance of the model was compared with that of the previously reported models. The postoperative eGFR value was associated with age, preoperative eGFR, preserved renal parenchymal volume (RPV), preserved RCV, % of RPV alteration, and % of RCV alteration (p < 0.01). The significant correlated variables for %eGFR alteration were %RCV preservation (r = 0.58, p < 0.01) and %RPV preservation (r = 0.54, p < 0.01). We developed our regression model as follows: postoperative eGFR = 57.87 - 0.55(age) - 15.01(body surface area) + 0.30(preoperative eGFR) + 52.92(%RCV preservation). Strong correlation was seen between postoperative eGFR and the calculated estimation model (r = 0.83; p < 0.001). The external validation cohort (n = 21) showed our model outperformed previously reported models. Combining MDCT renal volumetry and clinical indices might yield an important tool for predicting postoperative renal function.

Calculation of the age of the first infection for skin sores and scabies in five remote communities in northern Australia.

PubMed

Lydeamore, M J; Campbell, P T; Cuningham, W; Andrews, R M; Kearns, T; Clucas, D; Gundjirryirr Dhurrkay, R; Carapetis, J; Tong, S Y C; McCaw, J M; McVernon, J

2018-05-08

Prevalence of skin sores and scabies in remote Australian Aboriginal communities remains unacceptably high, with Group A Streptococcus (GAS) the dominant pathogen. We aim to better understand the drivers of GAS transmission using mathematical models. To estimate the force of infection, we quantified the age of first skin sores and scabies infection by pooling historical data from three studies conducted across five remote Aboriginal communities for children born between 2001 and 2005. We estimated the age of the first infection using the Kaplan-Meier estimator; parametric exponential mixture model; and Cox proportional hazards. For skin sores, the mean age of the first infection was approximately 10 months and the median was 7 months, with some heterogeneity in median observed by the community. For scabies, the mean age of the first infection was approximately 9 months and the median was 8 months, with significant heterogeneity by the community and an enhanced risk for children born between October and December. The young age of the first infection with skin sores and scabies reflects the high disease burden in these communities.

Simulation of κ-Carbide Precipitation Kinetics in Aged Low-Density Fe-Mn-Al-C Steels and Its Effects on Strengthening

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Jaeeun; Park, Siwook; Kim, Hwangsun; Park, Seong-Jun; Lee, Keunho; Kim, Mi-Young; Madakashira, Phaniraj P.; Han, Heung Nam

2018-03-01

Fe-Al-Mn-C alloy systems are low-density austenite-based steels that show excellent mechanical properties. After aging such steels at adequate temperatures for adequate time, nano-scale precipitates such as κ-carbide form, which have profound effects on the mechanical properties. Therefore, it is important to predict the amount and size of the generated κ-carbide precipitates in order to control the mechanical properties of low-density steels. In this study, the microstructure and mechanical properties of aged low-density austenitic steel were characterized. Thermo-kinetic simulations of the aging process were used to predict the size and phase fraction of κ-carbide after different aging periods, and these results were validated by comparison with experimental data derived from dark-field transmission electron microscopy images. Based on these results, models for precipitation strengthening based on different mechanisms were assessed. The measured increase in the strength of aged specimens was compared with that calculated from the models to determine the exact precipitation strengthening mechanism.

Development and external multicenter validation of Chinese Prostate Cancer Consortium prostate cancer risk calculator for initial prostate biopsy.

PubMed

Chen, Rui; Xie, Liping; Xue, Wei; Ye, Zhangqun; Ma, Lulin; Gao, Xu; Ren, Shancheng; Wang, Fubo; Zhao, Lin; Xu, Chuanliang; Sun, Yinghao

2016-09-01

Substantial differences exist in the relationship of prostate cancer (PCa) detection rate and prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level between Western and Asian populations. Classic Western risk calculators, European Randomized Study for Screening of Prostate Cancer Risk Calculator, and Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial Risk Calculator, were shown to be not applicable in Asian populations. We aimed to develop and validate a risk calculator for predicting the probability of PCa and high-grade PCa (defined as Gleason Score sum 7 or higher) at initial prostate biopsy in Chinese men. Urology outpatients who underwent initial prostate biopsy according to the inclusion criteria were included. The multivariate logistic regression-based Chinese Prostate Cancer Consortium Risk Calculator (CPCC-RC) was constructed with cases from 2 hospitals in Shanghai. Discriminative ability, calibration and decision curve analysis were externally validated in 3 CPCC member hospitals. Of the 1,835 patients involved, PCa was identified in 338/924 (36.6%) and 294/911 (32.3%) men in the development and validation cohort, respectively. Multivariate logistic regression analyses showed that 5 predictors (age, logPSA, logPV, free PSA ratio, and digital rectal examination) were associated with PCa (Model 1) or high-grade PCa (Model 2), respectively. The area under the curve of Model 1 and Model 2 was 0.801 (95% CI: 0.771-0.831) and 0.826 (95% CI: 0.796-0.857), respectively. Both models illustrated good calibration and substantial improvement in decision curve analyses than any single predictors at all threshold probabilities. Higher predicting accuracy, better calibration, and greater clinical benefit were achieved by CPCC-RC, compared with European Randomized Study for Screening of Prostate Cancer Risk Calculator and Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial Risk Calculator in predicting PCa. CPCC-RC performed well in discrimination and calibration and decision curve analysis in external validation compared with Western risk calculators. CPCC-RC may aid in decision-making of prostate biopsy in Chinese or in other Asian populations with similar genetic and environmental backgrounds. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Mortality and nursing care dependency one year after first ischemic stroke: an analysis of German statutory health insurance data.

PubMed

Kemper, Claudia; Koller, Daniela; Glaeske, Gerd; van den Bussche, Hendrik

2011-01-01

Aphasia, dementia, and depression are important and common neurological and neuropsychological disorders after ischemic stroke. We estimated the frequency of these comorbidities and their impact on mortality and nursing care dependency. Data of a German statutory health insurance were analyzed for people aged 50 years and older with first ischemic stroke. Aphasia, dementia, and depression were defined on the basis of outpatient medical diagnoses within 1 year after stroke. Logistic regression models for mortality and nursing care dependency were calculated and were adjusted for age, sex, and other relevant comorbidity. Of 977 individuals with a first ischemic stroke, 14.8% suffered from aphasia, 12.5% became demented, and 22.4% became depressed. The regression model for mortality showed a significant influence of age, aphasia, and other relevant comorbidity. In the regression model for nursing care dependency, the factors age, aphasia, dementia, depression, and other relevant comorbidity were significant. Aphasia has a high impact on mortality and nursing care dependency after ischemic stroke, while dementia and depression are strongly associated with increasing nursing care dependency.

Evaluation of the Pool Critical Assembly Benchmark with Explicitly-Modeled Geometry using MCNP6

DOE PAGES

Kulesza, Joel A.; Martz, Roger Lee

2017-03-01

Despite being one of the most widely used benchmarks for qualifying light water reactor (LWR) radiation transport methods and data, no benchmark calculation of the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Pool Critical Assembly (PCA) pressure vessel wall benchmark facility (PVWBF) using MCNP6 with explicitly modeled core geometry exists. As such, this paper provides results for such an analysis. First, a criticality calculation is used to construct the fixed source term. Next, ADVANTG-generated variance reduction parameters are used within the final MCNP6 fixed source calculations. These calculations provide unadjusted dosimetry results using three sets of dosimetry reaction cross sections of varyingmore » ages (those packaged with MCNP6, from the IRDF-2002 multi-group library, and from the ACE-formatted IRDFF v1.05 library). These results are then compared to two different sets of measured reaction rates. The comparison agrees in an overall sense within 2% and on a specific reaction- and dosimetry location-basis within 5%. Except for the neptunium dosimetry, the individual foil raw calculation-to-experiment comparisons usually agree within 10% but is typically greater than unity. Finally, in the course of developing these calculations, geometry that has previously not been completely specified is provided herein for the convenience of future analysts.« less

Weakened magnetic braking as the origin of anomalously rapid rotation in old field stars.

PubMed

van Saders, Jennifer L; Ceillier, Tugdual; Metcalfe, Travis S; Aguirre, Victor Silva; Pinsonneault, Marc H; García, Rafael A; Mathur, Savita; Davies, Guy R

2016-01-14

A knowledge of stellar ages is crucial for our understanding of many astrophysical phenomena, and yet ages can be difficult to determine. As they become older, stars lose mass and angular momentum, resulting in an observed slowdown in surface rotation. The technique of 'gyrochronology' uses the rotation period of a star to calculate its age. However, stars of known age must be used for calibration, and, until recently, the approach was untested for old stars (older than 1 gigayear, Gyr). Rotation periods are now known for stars in an open cluster of intermediate age (NGC 6819; 2.5 Gyr old), and for old field stars whose ages have been determined with asteroseismology. The data for the cluster agree with previous period-age relations, but these relations fail to describe the asteroseismic sample. Here we report stellar evolutionary modelling, and confirm the presence of unexpectedly rapid rotation in stars that are more evolved than the Sun. We demonstrate that models that incorporate dramatically weakened magnetic braking for old stars can--unlike existing models--reproduce both the asteroseismic and the cluster data. Our findings might suggest a fundamental change in the nature of ageing stellar dynamos, with the Sun being close to the critical transition to much weaker magnetized winds. This weakened braking limits the diagnostic power of gyrochronology for those stars that are more than halfway through their main-sequence lifetimes.

The Mixing of Regolith on the Moon and Beyond; A Model Refreshed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Costello, E.; Ghent, R. R.; Lucey, P. G.

2017-12-01

Meteoritic impactors constantly mix the lunar regolith, affecting stratigraphy, the lifetime of rays and other anomalous surface features, and the burial, exposure, and break down of volatiles and rocks. In this work we revisit the pioneering regolith mixing model presented by Gault et al. (1974), with updated assumptions and input parameters. Our updates significantly widen the parameter space and allow us to explore mixing as it is driven by different impactors in different materials (e.g. radar-dark halos and melt ponds). The updated treatment of micrometeorites suggests a very high rate of processing at the immediate lunar surface, with implications for rock breakdown and regolith production on melt ponds. We find that the inclusion of secondary impacts has a very strong effect on the rate and magnitude of mixing at all depths and timescales. Our calculations are in good agreement with the timescale of reworking in the top 2-3 cm of regolith that was predicted by observations of LROC temporal pairs and by the depth profile of 26Al abundance in Apollo drill cores. Further, our calculations with secondaries included are consistent with the depth profile of in situ exposure age calculated from Is/FeO and cosmic track abundance in Apollo deep drill cores down to 50cm. The mixing we predict is also consistent with the erasure of density anomalies, or `cold spots', observed in the top decimeters of regolith by LRO Diviner, and the 1Gyr lifetime of 1-10m thick Copernican rays. This exploration of Moon's surface evolution has profound implications for our understanding of other planetary bodies. We take advantage of this computationally inexpensive analytic model and apply it to describe mixing on a variety of bodies across the solar system; including asteroids, Mercury, and Europa. We use the results of ongoing studies that describe porosity calculations and cratering laws in porous asteroid-like material to explore the reworking rate experienced by an asteroid. On Mercury, we apply this model to describe the rate at which reworking depletes water ice and calculate the maximum age of Mercury's polar ice deposits. We apply the model to Europa to understand the impact portion of its regolith evolution and provide insight into the sampling zone intended for a future Europa lander.

Absolute Ages and Distances of 22 GCs Using Monte Carlo Main-sequence Fitting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Malley, Erin M.; Gilligan, Christina; Chaboyer, Brian

2017-04-01

The recent Gaia Data Release 1 of stellar parallaxes provides ample opportunity to find metal-poor main-sequence stars with precise parallaxes. We select 21 such stars with parallax uncertainties better than σ π /π ≤ 0.10 and accurate abundance determinations suitable for testing metal-poor stellar evolution models and determining the distance to Galactic globular clusters (GCs). A Monte Carlo analysis was used, taking into account uncertainties in the model construction parameters, to generate stellar models and isochrones to fit to the calibration stars. The isochrones that fit the calibration stars best were then used to determine the distances and ages of 22 GCs with metallicities ranging from -2.4 dex to -0.7 dex. We find distances with an average uncertainty of 0.15 mag and absolute ages ranging from 10.8 to 13.6 Gyr with an average uncertainty of 1.6 Gyr. Using literature proper motion data, we calculate orbits for the clusters, finding six that reside within the Galactic disk/bulge, while the rest are considered halo clusters. We find no strong evidence for a relationship between age and Galactocentric distance, but we do find a decreasing age-[Fe/H] relation.

Predicting mosaics and wildlife diversity resulting from fire disturbance to a forest ecosystem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Potter, Meredith W.; Kessell, Stephen R.

1980-05-01

A model for predicting community mosaics and wildlife diversity resulting from fire disturbance to a forest ecosystem is presented. It applies an algorithm that delineates the size and shape of each patch from grid-based input data and calculates standard diversity measures for the entire mosaic of community patches and their included animal species. The user can print these diversity calculations, maps of the current community-type-age-class mosaic, and maps of habitat utilization by each animal species. Furthermore, the user can print estimates of changes in each resulting from natural disturbance. Although data and resolution level independent, the model is demonstrated and tested with data from the Lewis and Clark National Forest in Montana.

The development of a population of 4D pediatric XCAT phantoms for imaging research and optimization

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Segars, W. P., E-mail: paul.segars@duke.edu; Norris, Hannah; Sturgeon, Gregory M.

Purpose: We previously developed a set of highly detailed 4D reference pediatric extended cardiac-torso (XCAT) phantoms at ages of newborn, 1, 5, 10, and 15 yr with organ and tissue masses matched to ICRP Publication 89 values. In this work, we extended this reference set to a series of 64 pediatric phantoms of varying age and height and body mass percentiles representative of the public at large. The models will provide a library of pediatric phantoms for optimizing pediatric imaging protocols. Methods: High resolution positron emission tomography-computed tomography data obtained from the Duke University database were reviewed by a practicingmore » experienced radiologist for anatomic regularity. The CT portion of the data was then segmented with manual and semiautomatic methods to form a target model defined using nonuniform rational B-spline surfaces. A multichannel large deformation diffeomorphic metric mapping algorithm was used to calculate the transform from the best age matching pediatric XCAT reference phantom to the patient target. The transform was used to complete the target, filling in the nonsegmented structures and defining models for the cardiac and respiratory motions. The complete phantoms, consisting of thousands of structures, were then manually inspected for anatomical accuracy. The mass for each major tissue was calculated and compared to linearly interpolated ICRP values for different ages. Results: Sixty four new pediatric phantoms were created in this manner. Each model contains the same level of detail as the original XCAT reference phantoms and also includes parameterized models for the cardiac and respiratory motions. For the phantoms that were 10 yr old and younger, we included both sets of reproductive organs. This gave them the capability to simulate both male and female anatomy. With this, the population can be expanded to 92. Wide anatomical variation was clearly seen amongst the phantom models, both in organ shape and size, even for models of the same age and sex. The phantoms can be combined with existing simulation packages to generate realistic pediatric imaging data from different modalities. Conclusions: This work provides a large cohort of highly detailed pediatric phantoms with 4D capabilities of varying age, height, and body mass. The population of phantoms will provide a vital tool with which to optimize 3D and 4D pediatric imaging devices and techniques in terms of image quality and radiation-absorbed dose.« less

Effect of metaphorical verbal instruction on modeling of sequential dance skills by young children.

PubMed

Sawada, Misako; Mori, Shiro; Ishii, Motonobu

2002-12-01

Metaphorical verbal instruction was compared to specific verbal instruction about movement in the modeling of sequential dance skills by young children. Two groups of participants (Younger, mean age 5:3 yr., n = 30: Older, mean age 6:2 yr., n = 30) were randomly assigned to conditions in a 2 (sex) x 2 (age [Younger and Older]) x 3 (verbal instruction [Metaphorical, Movement-relevant, and None]) factorial design. Order scores were calculated for both performance and recognition tests, comprising five acquisition trials and two retention trials after 24 hr., respectively. Analysis of variance indicated that the group given metaphorical instruction performed better than the other two instructions for both younger and older children. The results suggest that metaphorical verbal instruction aids the recognition and performance of sequential dance skills in young children.

Determination of Fundamental Properties of an M31 Globular Cluster from Main-Sequence Photometry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Jun; Wu, Zhenyu; Wang, Song; Fan, Zhou; Zhou, Xu; Wu, Jianghua; Jiang, Zhaoji; Chen, Jiansheng

2010-10-01

M31 globular cluster B379 is the first extragalactic cluster whose age was determined by main-sequence photometry. In the main-sequence photometric method, the age of a cluster is obtained by fitting its color-magnitude diagram (CMD) with stellar evolutionary models. However, different stellar evolutionary models use different parameters of stellar evolution, such as range of stellar masses, different opacities and equations of state, and different recipes, and so on. So, it is interesting to check whether different stellar evolutionary models can give consistent results for the same cluster. Brown et al. constrained the age of B379 by comparing its CMD with isochrones of the 2006 VandenBerg models. Using SSP models of Bruzual & Charlot and its multiphotometry, ZMa et al. independently determined the age of B379, which is in good agreement with the determination of Brown et al. The models of Bruzual & Charlot are calculated based on the Padova evolutionary tracks. It is necessary to check whether the age of B379 as determined based on the Padova evolutionary tracks is in agreement with the determination of Brown et al.. In this article, we redetermine the age of B379 using isochrones of the Padova stellar evolutionary models. In addition, the metal abundance, the distance modulus, and the reddening value for B379 are reported. The results obtained are consistent with the previous determinations, which include the age obtained by Brown et al. This article thus confirms the consistency of the age scale of B379 between the Padova isochrones and the 2006 VandenBerg isochrones; i.e., the comparison between the results of Brown et al. and Ma et al. is meaningful. The results reported in this article of values found for B379 are: metallicity [M/H] = log(Z/Z ⊙) = -0.325, age τ = 11.0 ± 1.5 Gyr, reddening E(B - V) = 0.08, and distance modulus (m - M)0 = 24.44 ± 0.10.

DETERMINING AGES OF APOGEE GIANTS WITH KNOWN DISTANCES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Feuillet, Diane K.; Holtzman, Jon; Bovy, Jo

2016-01-20

We present a sample of 705 local giant stars observed using the New Mexico State University 1 m telescope with the Sloan Digital Sky Survey-III/Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment (APOGEE) spectrograph, for which we estimate stellar ages and the local star formation history (SFH). The high-resolution (R ∼ 22,500), near infrared (1.51–1.7 μm) APOGEE spectra provide measurements of stellar atmospheric parameters (temperature, surface gravity, [M/H], and [α/M]). Due to the smaller uncertainties in surface gravity possible with high-resolution spectra and accurate Hipparcos distance measurements, we are able to calculate the stellar masses to within 30%. For giants, the relativelymore » rapid evolution up the red giant branch allows the age to be constrained by the mass. We examine methods of estimating age using both the mass–age relation directly and a Bayesian isochrone matching of measured parameters, assuming a constant SFH. To improve the SFH prior, we use a hierarchical modeling approach to constrain the parameters of the model SFH using the age probability distribution functions of the data. The results of an α-dependent Gaussian SFH model show a clear age–[α/M] relation at all ages. Using this SFH model as the prior for an empirical Bayesian analysis, we determine ages for individual stars. The resulting age–metallicity relation is flat, with a slight decrease in [M/H] at the oldest ages and a ∼0.5 dex spread in metallicity across most ages. For stars with ages ≲1 Gyr we find a smaller spread, consistent with radial migration having a smaller effect on these young stars than on the older stars.« less

Neuropsychological Predictors of Math Calculation and Reasoning in School-Aged Children

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schneider, Dana Lynn

2012-01-01

After multiple reviews of the literature, which documented that multiple cognitive processes may be involved in mathematics ability and disability, Geary (1993) proposed a model that included three subtypes of math disability: Semantic, Procedural, and Visuospatial. A review of the extant literature produced three studies that examined Geary's…

An artificial intelligence tool for complex age-depth models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bradley, E.; Anderson, K. A.; de Vesine, L. R.; Lai, V.; Thomas, M.; Nelson, T. H.; Weiss, I.; White, J. W. C.

2017-12-01

CSciBox is an integrated software system for age modeling of paleoenvironmental records. It incorporates an array of data-processing and visualization facilities, ranging from 14C calibrations to sophisticated interpolation tools. Using CSciBox's GUI, a scientist can build custom analysis pipelines by composing these built-in components or adding new ones. Alternatively, she can employ CSciBox's automated reasoning engine, Hobbes, which uses AI techniques to perform an in-depth, autonomous exploration of the space of possible age-depth models and presents the results—both the models and the reasoning that was used in constructing and evaluating them—to the user for her inspection. Hobbes accomplishes this using a rulebase that captures the knowledge of expert geoscientists, which was collected over the course of more than 100 hours of interviews. It works by using these rules to generate arguments for and against different age-depth model choices for a given core. Given a marine-sediment record containing uncalibrated 14C dates, for instance, Hobbes tries CALIB-style calibrations using a choice of IntCal curves, with reservoir age correction values chosen from the 14CHRONO database using the lat/long information provided with the core, and finally composes the resulting age points into a full age model using different interpolation methods. It evaluates each model—e.g., looking for outliers or reversals—and uses that information to guide the next steps of its exploration, and presents the results to the user in human-readable form. The most powerful of CSciBox's built-in interpolation methods is BACON, a Bayesian sedimentation-rate algorithm—a powerful but complex tool that can be difficult to use. Hobbes adjusts BACON's many parameters autonomously to match the age model to the expectations of expert geoscientists, as captured in its rulebase. It then checks the model against the data and iteratively re-calculates until it is a good fit to the data.

Residual Stresses in Ta, Mo, Al and Pd Thin Films Deposited by E-Beam Evaporation Process on Si and Si/SiO2 Substrates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guisbiers, G.; Strehle, S.; Van Overschelde, O.; Wautelet, M.

2006-02-01

Residual stresses are commonly generated during the deposition process of thin films and can influence the reliability of the deposited systems e.g. due to fatigue, aging effects or debonding. Therefore, an evaluation of such stresses in thin films is of crucial importance for metallization of microelectronic devices and MEMS. Residual stresses can be determined experimentally by substrate curvature or X-ray diffraction measurements. The modeling of residual stresses generally deals with the calculation of the thermal ones alone. In the present work, a model is proposed, where intrinsic stresses are calculated explicitly based on the Tsui-Clyne model. The aim of this model, called self-consistent model, is to predict residual stresses in thin films independent on measurements. The simulated values are compared with experimental results for the following systems: Ta/Si, Mo/Si, Al/SiO2/Si and Pd/SiO2/Si.

Calculating system reliability with SRFYDO

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Morzinski, Jerome; Anderson - Cook, Christine M; Klamann, Richard M

2010-01-01

SRFYDO is a process for estimating reliability of complex systems. Using information from all applicable sources, including full-system (flight) data, component test data, and expert (engineering) judgment, SRFYDO produces reliability estimates and predictions. It is appropriate for series systems with possibly several versions of the system which share some common components. It models reliability as a function of age and up to 2 other lifecycle (usage) covariates. Initial output from its Exploratory Data Analysis mode consists of plots and numerical summaries so that the user can check data entry and model assumptions, and help determine a final form for themore » system model. The System Reliability mode runs a complete reliability calculation using Bayesian methodology. This mode produces results that estimate reliability at the component, sub-system, and system level. The results include estimates of uncertainty, and can predict reliability at some not-too-distant time in the future. This paper presents an overview of the underlying statistical model for the analysis, discusses model assumptions, and demonstrates usage of SRFYDO.« less

Global isostatic geoid anomalies for plate and boundary layer models of the lithosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hager, B. H.

1981-01-01

Commonly used one dimensional geoid models predict that the isostatic geoid anomaly over old ocean basins for the boundary layer thermal model of the lithosphere is a factor of two greater than that for the plate model. Calculations presented, using the spherical analogues of the plate and boundary layer thermal models, show that for the actual global distribution of plate ages, one dimensional models are not accurate and a spherical, fully three dimensional treatment is necessary. The maximum difference in geoid heights predicted for the two models is only about two meters. The thermal structure of old lithosphere is unlikely to be resolvable using global geoid anomalies. Stripping the effects of plate aging and a hypothetical uniform, 35 km, isostatically-compensated continental crust from the observed geoid emphasizes that the largest-amplitude geoid anomaly is the geoid low of almost 120 m over West Antarctica, a factor of two greater than the low of 60 m over Ceylon.

A height-for-age growth reference for children with achondroplasia: Expanded applications and comparison with original reference data.

PubMed

Hoover-Fong, Julie; McGready, John; Schulze, Kerry; Alade, Adekemi Yewande; Scott, Charles I

2017-05-01

The height-for-age (HA) reference currently used for children with achondroplasia is not adaptable for electronic records or calculation of HA Z-scores. We report new HA curves and tables of mean and standard deviation (SD) HA, for calculating Z-scores, from birth-16 years in achondroplasia. Mixed longitudinal data were abstracted from medical records of achondroplasia patients from a single clinical practice (CIS, 1967-2004). Gender-specific height percentiles (5, 25, 50, 75, 95th) were estimated across the age continuum, using a 2 month window per time point smoothed by a quadratic smoothing algorithm. HA curves were constructed for 0-36 months and 2-16 years to optimize resolution for younger children. Mean monthly height (SD) was tabulated. These novel HA curves were compared to reference data currently in use for children with achondroplasia. 293 subjects (162 male/131 female) contributed 1,005 and 932 height measures, with greater data paucity with age. Mean HA tracked with original achondroplasia norms, particularly through mid-childhood (2-9 years), but with no evidence of a pubertal growth spurt. Standard deviation of height at each month interval increased from birth through 16 years. Birth length was lower in achondroplasia than average stature and, as expected, height deficits increased with age. A new HA reference is available for longitudinal growth assessment in achondroplasia, taking advantage of statistical modeling techniques and allowing for Z-score calculations. This is an important contribution to clinical care and research endeavors for the achondroplasia population. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

[Occlusion treatment for amblyopia. Age dependence and dose-response relationship].

PubMed

Fronius, M

2016-04-01

Based on clinical experience and studies on animal models the age of 6-7 years was regarded as the limit for treatment of amblyopia, although functional improvement was also occasionally reported in older patients. New technical developments as well as insights from clinical studies and the neurosciences have attracted considerable attention to this topic. Various aspects of the age dependence of amblyopia treatment are discussed in this article, e. g. prescription, electronic monitoring of occlusion dosage, calculation of indicators for age-dependent plasticity of the visual system, and novel, alternative treatment approaches. Besides a discussion of the recent literature, results of studies by our "Child Vision Research Unit" in Frankfurt are presented: results of a questionnaire about prescription habits concerning age limits of patching, electronic recording of occlusion in patients beyond the conventional treatment age, calculation of dose-response function and efficiency of patching and their age dependence. The results of the questionnaire illustrate the uncertainty about age limits of prescription with significant deviations from the guideline of the German Ophthalmological Society (DOG). Electronic recording of occlusion allowed the quantification of declining dose-response function and treatment efficiency between 5 and 16 years of age. Reports about successful treatment with conventional and novel methods in adults are at variance with the notion of a rigid adult visual system lacking plasticity. Electronic recording of patching allowed new insights into the age-dependent susceptibility of the visual system and contributes to a more evidence-based treatment of amblyopia. Alternative approaches for adults challenge established notions about age limits of amblyopia therapy. Further studies comparing different treatment options are urgently needed.

Bayesian integration of radioisotope dating (210Pb, 137Cs, 241Am, 14C) and an 18-20th century mining history of Brotherswater, English Lake District

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schillereff, Daniel; Chiverrell, Richard; Macdonald, Neil; Hooke, Janet; Welsh, Katharine; Piliposyan, Gayane; Appleby, Peter

2014-05-01

Lake sediment records are often a useful tool for investigating landscape evolution as geomorphic changes in the catchment are reflected by altered sediment properties in the material transported through the watershed and deposited at the lake bed. Recent research at Brotherswater, an upland waterbody in the Lake District, northwest England, has focused on reconstructing historical floods from their sedimentary signatures and calculating long-term sediment and carbon budgets from fourteen sediment cores extracted from across the basin. Developing accurate chronological control is essential for these tasks. One sediment core (BW11-2; 3.5 m length) from the central basin has been dated using artificial radionuclide measurements (210Pb, 137Cs, 241Am) for the uppermost sediments and radiocarbon (14C) for lower sediments. The core appears to span the past 1500 years, however a number of problems have arisen. We present our explanations for these errors, the independent chronological techniques used to generate an accurate age-depth model for this core and methods for its transferral to the other 13 cores extracted from the basin. Two distinct 137Cs markers, corresponding to the 1986 Chernobyl disaster and 1960s weapons testing, confirm the 210Pb profile for sediment deposition since ~1950, but calculations prior to this appear erroneous, possibly due to a hiatus in the sediment record. We used high-resolution geochemical profiles (measured by XRF) to cross-correlate with a second 210Pb-dated chronology from a more distal location, which returned more sensible results. Unfortunately, the longer 14C sequence exhibits two age-reversals (radiocarbon dates that are too old). We believe the uppermost two dates are erroneous, due to a shift in inflow location as a flood prevention method ~1900 A.D., dated using information from historical maps. The lower age-reversal coincides with greater supply of terrigenous material to the lake (increased Zr, K, Ti concentrations), pointing to a hillslope clearance event. A widespread concurrent hillslope gullying phase in northwest England triggering enhanced soil erosion is thus the most likely explanation, as the presence of old carbon is a known issue for lakes in the region at this time. Applying a Bayesian age-depth modelling protocol is able to account for these age-reversals with some success. However, the greatest uncertainty in the model occurs across the 1700 -1900 A.D. time window as the radiocarbon percentages offer multiple age solutions due to fluctuating atmospheric 14C concentrations from fossil fuel emissions. We address this issue by incorporating into the model geochemical markers in the sediment core related to local point-source Pb mining of known-age; the most-likely age-depth curve is subsequently much more definitively resolved. Usefully, these mining-derived chronological markers bridge the temporal gap between artificial radionuclide and conventional radiocarbon dating which is a common problem in palaeolimnology. These distinctive geochemical mining profiles (Pb, Zn, Cu) have been mapped across all cores, enabling precise core correlation and confident transferral of the age-depth model, and reveal highly spatially variable sediment accumulation rates. This has enabled more accurate sediment and carbon budgets to be calculated and some insight into palaeoflood frequency to be obtained from the Brotherswater sediment sequence.

An international age- and gender-controlled model for the Spinal Cord Injury Ability Realization Measurement Index (SCI-ARMI).

PubMed

Scivoletto, Giorgio; Glass, Clive; Anderson, Kim D; Galili, Tal; Benjamin, Yoav; Front, Lilach; Aidinoff, Elena; Bluvshtein, Vadim; Itzkovich, Malka; Aito, Sergio; Baroncini, Ilaria; Benito-Penalva, Jesùs; Castellano, Simona; Osman, Aheed; Silva, Pedro; Catz, Amiram

2015-01-01

Background. A quadratic formula of the Spinal Cord Injury Ability Realization Measurement Index (SCI-ARMI) has previously been published. This formula was based on a model of Spinal Cord Independence Measure (SCIM95), the 95th percentile of the SCIM III values, which correspond with the American Spinal Injury Association Motor Scores (AMS) of SCI patients. Objective. To further develop the original formula. Setting. Spinal cord injury centers from 6 countries and the Statistical Laboratory, Tel-Aviv University, Israel. Methods. SCIM95 of 661 SCI patients was modeled, using a quantile regression with or without adjustment for age and gender, to calculate SCI-ARMI values. SCI-ARMI gain during rehabilitation and its correlations were examined. Results. A new quadratic SCIM95 model was created. This resembled the previously published model, which yielded similar SCIM95 values in all the countries, after adjustment for age and gender. Without this adjustment, however, only 86% of the non-Israeli SCIM III observations were lower than those SCIM95 values (P < .0001). Adding the variables age and gender to the new model affected the SCIM95 value significantly (P < .04). Adding country information did not add a significant effect (P > .1). SCI-ARMI gain was positive (38.8 ± 22 points, P < .0001) and correlated weakly with admission age and AMS. Conclusions. The original quadratic SCI-ARMI formula is valid for an international population after adjustment for age and gender. The new formula considers more factors that affect functional ability following SCI. © The Author(s) 2014.

Propagation of the Hawaiian-Emperor volcano chain by Pacific plate cooling stress

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stuart, W.D.; Foulger, G.R.; Barall, M.

2007-01-01

The lithosphere crack model, the main alternative to the mantle plume model for age-progressive magma emplacement along the Hawaiian-Emperor volcano chain, requires the maximum horizontal tensile stress to be normal to the volcano chain. However, published stress fields calculated from Pacific lithosphere tractions and body forces (e.g., subduction pull, basal drag, lithosphere density) are not optimal for southeast propagation of a stress-free, vertical tensile crack coincident with the Hawaiian segment of the Hawaiian-Emperor chain. Here we calculate the thermoelastic stress rate for present-day cooling of the Pacific plate using a spherical shell finite element representation of the plate geometry. We use observed seafloor isochrons and a standard model for lithosphere cooling to specify the time dependence of vertical temperature profiles. The calculated stress rate multiplied by a time increment (e.g., 1 m.y.) then gives a thermoelastic stress increment for the evolving Pacific plate. Near the Hawaiian chain position, the calculated stress increment in the lower part of the shell is tensional, with maximum tension normal to the chain direction. Near the projection of the chain trend to the southeast beyond Hawaii, the stress increment is compressive. This incremental stress field has the form necessary to maintain and propagate a tensile crack or similar lithosphere flaw and is thus consistent with the crack model for the Hawaiian volcano chain.?? 2007 The Geological Society of America.

Human dental age estimation combining third molar(s) development and tooth morphological age predictors.

PubMed

Thevissen, P W; Galiti, D; Willems, G

2012-11-01

In the subadult age group, third molar development, as well as age-related morphological tooth information can be observed on panoramic radiographs. The aim of present study was to combine, in subadults, panoramic radiographic data based on developmental stages of third molar(s) and morphological measurements from permanent teeth, in order to evaluate its added age-predicting performances. In the age range between 15 and 23 years, 25 gender-specific radiographs were collected within each age category of 1 year. Third molar development was classified and registered according the 10-point staging and scoring technique proposed by Gleiser and Hunt (1955), modified by Köhler (1994). The Kvaal (1995) measuring technique was applied on the indicated teeth from the individuals' left side. Linear regression models with age as response and third molar-scored stages as explanatory variables were developed, and morphological measurements from permanent teeth were added. From the models, determination coefficients (R (2)) and root-mean-square errors (RMSE) were calculated. Maximal-added age information was reported as a 6 % R² increase and a 0.10-year decrease of RMSE. Forensic dental age estimations on panoramic radiographic data in the subadult group (15-23 year) should only be based on third molar development.

The curved 14C vs. δ13C relationship in dissolved inorganic carbon: A useful tool for groundwater age- and geochemical interpretations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Han, Liang-Feng; Plummer, Niel; Aggarwal, Pradeep

2014-01-01

Determination of the 14C content of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) is useful for dating of groundwater. However, in addition to radioactive decay, the 14C content in DIC (14CDIC) can be affected by many geochemical and physical processes and numerous models have been proposed to refine radiocarbon ages of DIC in groundwater systems. Changes in the δ13C content of DIC (δ13CDIC) often can be used to deduce the processes that affect the carbon isotopic composition of DIC and the 14C value during the chemical evolution of groundwater. This paper shows that a curved relationship of 14CDIC vs. δ13CDIC will be observed for groundwater systems if (1) the change in δ13C value in DIC is caused by a first-order or pseudo-first-order process, e.g. isotopic exchange between DIC and solid carbonate, (2) the reaction/process progresses with the ageing of the groundwater, i.e. with decay of 14C in DIC, and (3) the magnitude of the rate of change in δ13C of DIC is comparable with that of 14C decay. In this paper, we use a lumped parameter method to derive a model based on the curved relationship between 14CDICand δ13CDIC. The derived model, if used for isotopic exchange between DIC and solid carbonate, is identical to that derived by Gonfiantini and Zuppi (2003). The curved relationship of 14CDIC vs. δ13CDIC can be applied to interpret the age of the DIC in groundwater. Results of age calculations using the method discussed in this paper are compared with those obtained by using other methods that calculate the age of DIC based on adjusted initial radiocarbon values for individual samples. This paper shows that in addition to groundwater age interpretation, the lumped parameter method presented here also provides a useful tool for geochemical interpretations, e.g. estimation of apparent rates of geochemical reactions and revealing the complexity of the geochemical environment.

Prediction of risk of fracture in the tibia due to altered bone mineral density distribution resulting from disuse: a finite element study.

PubMed

Gislason, Magnus K; Coupaud, Sylvie; Sasagawa, Keisuke; Tanabe, Yuji; Purcell, Mariel; Allan, David B; Tanner, K Elizabeth

2014-02-01

The disuse-related bone loss that results from immobilisation following injury shares characteristics with osteoporosis in post-menopausal women and the aged, with decreases in bone mineral density leading to weakening of the bone and increased risk of fracture. The aim of this study was to use the finite element method to: (i) calculate the mechanical response of the tibia under mechanical load and (ii) estimate of the risk of fracture; comparing between two groups, an able-bodied group and spinal cord injury patients group suffering from varying degrees of bone loss. The tibiae of eight male subjects with chronic spinal cord injury and those of four able-bodied age-matched controls were scanned using multi-slice peripheral quantitative computed tomography. Images were used to develop full three-dimensional models of the tibiae in Mimics (Materialise) and exported into Abaqus (Simulia) for calculation of stress distribution and fracture risk in response to specified loading conditions - compression, bending and torsion. The percentage of elements that exceeded a calculated value of the ultimate stress provided an estimate of the risk of fracture for each subject, which differed between spinal cord injury subjects and their controls. The differences in bone mineral density distribution along the tibia in different subjects resulted in different regions of the bone being at high risk of fracture under set loading conditions, illustrating the benefit of creating individual material distribution models. A predictive tool can be developed based on these models, to enable clinicians to estimate the amount of loading that can be safely allowed onto the skeletal frame of individual patients who suffer from extensive musculoskeletal degeneration (including spinal cord injury, multiple sclerosis and the ageing population). The ultimate aim is to reduce fracture occurrence in these vulnerable groups.

The origin of high and low flows in the river Rhine: particle tracing and water quality calculations in a distributed hydrological model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schellekens, Jaap; van Gils, Jos; Christophe, Christophe; Sperna-Weiland, Frederiek; Winsemius, Hessel

2013-04-01

The ability to quickly link a complete water quality model to any distributed hydrological model can be of great value. It provides the hydrological modeller with more information on the performance of the model by being able to add particle tracing and independent mass balance calculations to an existing distributed hydrological model. It also allows for full catchment water quality calculations forced by emissions to different hydrological compartments, taking into account the relevant processes in the different compartments of the hydrological model. A combined distributed hydrological model and hydrochemical model (Delwaq) have been combined within the modeling framework OpenStreams to model large scale hydrological processes in the Rhine basin upstream of the Dutch border at Lobith. Several models have been setup to evaluate (1) the origin of high and low flows in the Rhine basin based on subcatchment contribution and (2) the contribution of different land covers to the total flow with special reference to urban land cover. In addition (3) the relative share of fast and slow runoff components in the total river discharge has been quantified, as well as the age of these two fractions, both as a function of time. Finally (4) the transmission of a pollutant released in infiltrating water and undergoing sorption has been simulated, as a first test for implementing full water quality modelling. The results of a thirty-five year run using daily time steps for 1975 to 2010 were analysed for monthly average contribution to the total flow of each subcatchment and the different land cover types both for average flow conditions and for the top ten and bottom ten flow percentiles. Furthermore, a number of high and low flow events have been analysed in detail. They reveal the large contribution of the basin area upstream of Basel to the dry season flow, especially during the driest summers. Flood conditions in the basin have a more varied origin with the Moselle being the main contributor. The amount of urban land cover (6.7%) generated a fairly large amount of (quick) runoff. In times up to 21 % of the flow at Lobith is generated in urban areas. The location of urban areas (in general close to the river) in combination with the associated impermeable surfaces most probably cause the relatively large contribution of urban areas. The fast runoff fraction at Lobith has an average age between 5 and 25 days, depending on the hydrology within the year, while the slow runoff fraction shows an average age between 300 and 600 days, again depending on the hydrology within the year. The time needed to flush out 90% of the total volume of water from the basin is about 20 years.

Numerical compliance testing of human exposure to electromagnetic radiation from smart-watches.

PubMed

Hong, Seon-Eui; Lee, Ae-Kyoung; Kwon, Jong-Hwa; Pack, Jeong-Ki

2016-10-07

In this study, we investigated the electromagnetic dosimetry for smart-watches. At present, the standard for compliance testing of body-mounted and handheld devices specifies the use of a flat phantom to provide conservative estimates of the peak spatial-averaged specific absorption rate (SAR). This means that the estimated SAR using a flat phantom should be higher than the SAR in the exposure part of an anatomical human-body model. To verify this, we numerically calculated the SAR for a flat phantom and compared it with the numerical calculation of the SAR for four anatomical human-body models of different ages. The numerical analysis was performed using the finite difference time domain method (FDTD). The smart-watch models were used in the three antennas: the shorted planar inverted-F antenna (PIFA), loop antenna, and monopole antenna. Numerical smart-watch models were implemented for cellular commutation and wireless local-area network operation at 835, 1850, and 2450 MHz. The peak spatial-averaged SARs of the smart-watch models are calculated for the flat phantom and anatomical human-body model for the wrist-worn and next to mouth positions. The results show that the flat phantom does not provide a consistent conservative SAR estimate. We concluded that the difference in the SAR results between an anatomical human-body model and a flat phantom can be attributed to the different phantom shapes and tissue structures.

Numerical compliance testing of human exposure to electromagnetic radiation from smart-watches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hong, Seon-Eui; Lee, Ae-Kyoung; Kwon, Jong-Hwa; Pack, Jeong-Ki

2016-10-01

In this study, we investigated the electromagnetic dosimetry for smart-watches. At present, the standard for compliance testing of body-mounted and handheld devices specifies the use of a flat phantom to provide conservative estimates of the peak spatial-averaged specific absorption rate (SAR). This means that the estimated SAR using a flat phantom should be higher than the SAR in the exposure part of an anatomical human-body model. To verify this, we numerically calculated the SAR for a flat phantom and compared it with the numerical calculation of the SAR for four anatomical human-body models of different ages. The numerical analysis was performed using the finite difference time domain method (FDTD). The smart-watch models were used in the three antennas: the shorted planar inverted-F antenna (PIFA), loop antenna, and monopole antenna. Numerical smart-watch models were implemented for cellular commutation and wireless local-area network operation at 835, 1850, and 2450 MHz. The peak spatial-averaged SARs of the smart-watch models are calculated for the flat phantom and anatomical human-body model for the wrist-worn and next to mouth positions. The results show that the flat phantom does not provide a consistent conservative SAR estimate. We concluded that the difference in the SAR results between an anatomical human-body model and a flat phantom can be attributed to the different phantom shapes and tissue structures.

Smoothing two-dimensional Malaysian mortality data using P-splines indexed by age and year

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kamaruddin, Halim Shukri; Ismail, Noriszura

2014-06-01

Nonparametric regression implements data to derive the best coefficient of a model from a large class of flexible functions. Eilers and Marx (1996) introduced P-splines as a method of smoothing in generalized linear models, GLMs, in which the ordinary B-splines with a difference roughness penalty on coefficients is being used in a single dimensional mortality data. Modeling and forecasting mortality rate is a problem of fundamental importance in insurance company calculation in which accuracy of models and forecasts are the main concern of the industry. The original idea of P-splines is extended to two dimensional mortality data. The data indexed by age of death and year of death, in which the large set of data will be supplied by Department of Statistics Malaysia. The extension of this idea constructs the best fitted surface and provides sensible prediction of the underlying mortality rate in Malaysia mortality case.

The Relationship between Crystalline Lens Power and Refractive Error in Older Chinese Adults: The Shanghai Eye Study.

PubMed

He, Jiangnan; Lu, Lina; He, Xiangui; Xu, Xian; Du, Xuan; Zhang, Bo; Zhao, Huijuan; Sha, Jida; Zhu, Jianfeng; Zou, Haidong; Xu, Xun

2017-01-01

To report calculated crystalline lens power and describe the distribution of ocular biometry and its association with refractive error in older Chinese adults. Random clustering sampling was used to identify adults aged 50 years and above in Xuhui and Baoshan districts of Shanghai. Refraction was determined by subjective refraction that achieved the best corrected vision based on monocular measurement. Ocular biometry was measured by IOL Master. The crystalline lens power of right eyes was calculated using modified Bennett-Rabbetts formula. We analyzed 6099 normal phakic right eyes. The mean crystalline lens power was 20.34 ± 2.24D (range: 13.40-36.08). Lens power, spherical equivalent, and anterior chamber depth changed linearly with age; however, axial length, corneal power and AL/CR ratio did not vary with age. The overall prevalence of hyperopia, myopia, and high myopia was 48.48% (95% CI: 47.23%-49.74%), 22.82% (95% CI: 21.77%-23.88%), and 4.57% (95% CI: 4.05-5.10), respectively. The prevalence of hyperopia increased linearly with age while lens power decreased with age. In multivariate models, refractive error was strongly correlated with axial length, lens power, corneal power, and anterior chamber depth; refractive error was slightly correlated with best corrected visual acuity, age and sex. Lens power, hyperopia, and spherical equivalent changed linearly with age; Moreover, the continuous loss of lens power produced hyperopic shifts in refraction in subjects aged more than 50 years.

Longitudinal development of match-running performance in elite male youth soccer players.

PubMed

Saward, C; Morris, J G; Nevill, M E; Nevill, A M; Sunderland, C

2016-08-01

This study longitudinally examined age-related changes in the match-running performance of retained and released elite youth soccer players aged 8-18 years. The effect of playing position on age-related changes was also considered. Across three seasons, 263 elite youth soccer players were assessed in 1-29 competitive matches (988 player-matches). For each player-match, total distance and distances covered at age group-specific speed zones (low-speed, high-speed, sprinting) were calculated using 1 Hz or 5 Hz GPS. Mixed modeling predicted that match-running performance developed nonlinearly, with age-related changes best described with quadratic age terms. Modeling predicted that playing position significantly modified age-related changes (P < 0.05) and retained players covered significantly more low-speed distance compared with released players (P < 0.05), by 75 ± 71 m/h (mean ± 95% CI; effect size ± 95% CI: 0.35 ± 0.34). Model intercepts randomly varied, indicating differences between players in match-running performance unexplained by age, playing position or status. These findings may assist experts in developing training programs specific to the match play demands of players of different ages and playing positions. Although retained players covered more low-speed distance than released players, further study of the actions comprising low-speed distance during match play is warranted to better understand factors differentiating retained and released players. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Age estimation standards for a Western Australian population using the coronal pulp cavity index.

PubMed

Karkhanis, Shalmira; Mack, Peter; Franklin, Daniel

2013-09-10

Age estimation is a vital aspect in creating a biological profile and aids investigators by narrowing down potentially matching identities from the available pool. In addition to routine casework, in the present global political scenario, age estimation in living individuals is required in cases of refugees, asylum seekers, human trafficking and to ascertain age of criminal responsibility. Thus robust methods that are simple, non-invasive and ethically viable are required. The aim of the present study is, therefore, to test the reliability and applicability of the coronal pulp cavity index method, for the purpose of developing age estimation standards for an adult Western Australian population. A total of 450 orthopantomograms (220 females and 230 males) of Australian individuals were analyzed. Crown and coronal pulp chamber heights were measured in the mandibular left and right premolars, and the first and second molars. These measurements were then used to calculate the tooth coronal index. Data was analyzed using paired sample t-tests to assess bilateral asymmetry followed by simple linear and multiple regressions to develop age estimation models. The most accurate age estimation based on simple linear regression model was with mandibular right first molar (SEE ±8.271 years). Multiple regression models improved age prediction accuracy considerably and the most accurate model was with bilateral first and second molars (SEE ±6.692 years). This study represents the first investigation of this method in a Western Australian population and our results indicate that the method is suitable for forensic application. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Future Declines of Coronary Heart Disease Mortality in England and Wales Could Counter the Burden of Population Ageing

PubMed Central

Guzman Castillo, Maria; Gillespie, Duncan O. S.; Allen, Kirk; Bandosz, Piotr; Schmid, Volker; Capewell, Simon; O’Flaherty, Martin

2014-01-01

Background Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) remains a major cause of mortality in the United Kingdom. Yet predictions of future CHD mortality are potentially problematic due to population ageing and increase in obesity and diabetes. Here we explore future projections of CHD mortality in England & Wales under two contrasting future trend assumptions. Methods In scenario A, we used the conventional counterfactual scenario that the last-observed CHD mortality rates from 2011 would persist unchanged to 2030. The future number of deaths was calculated by applying those rates to the 2012–2030 population estimates. In scenario B, we assumed that the recent falling trend in CHD mortality rates would continue. Using Lee-Carter and Bayesian Age Period Cohort (BAPC) models, we projected the linear trends up to 2030. We validate our methods using past data to predict mortality from 2002–2011. Then, we computed the error between observed and projected values. Results In scenario A, assuming that 2011 mortality rates stayed constant by 2030, the number of CHD deaths would increase 62% or approximately 39,600 additional deaths. In scenario B, assuming recent declines continued, the BAPC model (the model with lowest error) suggests the number of deaths will decrease by 56%, representing approximately 36,200 fewer deaths by 2030. Conclusions The decline in CHD mortality has been reasonably continuous since 1979, and there is little reason to believe it will soon halt. The commonly used assumption that mortality will remain constant from 2011 therefore appears slightly dubious. By contrast, using the BAPC model and assuming continuing mortality falls offers a more plausible prediction of future trends. Thus, despite population ageing, the number of CHD deaths might halve again between 2011 and 2030. This has implications for how the potential benefits of future cardiovascular strategies might best be calculated and presented. PMID:24918442

Comprehensive Modeling of Temperature-Dependent Degradation Mechanisms in Lithium Iron Phosphate Batteries

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Smith, Kandler A; Schimpe, Michael; von Kuepach, Markus Edler

For reliable lifetime predictions of lithium-ion batteries, models for cell degradation are required. A comprehensive semi-empirical model based on a reduced set of internal cell parameters and physically justified degradation functions for the capacity loss is developed and presented for a commercial lithium iron phosphate/graphite cell. One calendar and several cycle aging effects are modeled separately. Emphasis is placed on the varying degradation at different temperatures. Degradation mechanisms for cycle aging at high and low temperatures as well as the increased cycling degradation at high state of charge are calculated separately.For parameterization, a lifetime test study is conducted including storagemore » and cycle tests. Additionally, the model is validated through a dynamic current profile based on real-world application in a stationary energy storage system revealing the accuracy. The model error for the cell capacity loss in the application-based tests is at the end of testing below 1 % of the original cell capacity.« less

XRD-based 40Ar/39Ar age correction for fine-grained illite, with application to folded carbonates in the Monterrey Salient (northern Mexico)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fitz-Díaz, Elisa; Hall, Chris M.; van der Pluijm, Ben A.

2016-05-01

Due to their minute size, 40Ar/39Ar analysis of illite faces significant analytical challenges, including mineral characterization and, especially, effects of grain size and crystallography on 39Ar recoil. Quantifying the effects of 39Ar recoil requires the use of sample vacuum encapsulation during irradiation, which permits the measurement of the fraction of recoiled 39Ar as well as the 39Ar and 40Ar∗ retained within illite crystals that are released during step heating. Total-Gas Ages (TGA) are calculated by using both recoiled and retained argon, which is functionally equivalent to K-Ar ages, while Retention Ages (RA) only involve retained Ar in the crystal. Natural applications have shown that TGA fits stratigraphic constraints of geological processes when the average illite crystallite thickness (ICT) is smaller than 10 nm, and that RA matches these constraints for ICTs larger than 50 nm. We propose a new age correction method that takes into account the average ICT and corresponding recoiled 39Ar for a sample, with X-ray Corrected Ages (XCA) lying between Total-Gas and Retention Ages depending on ICT. This correction is particularly useful in samples containing authigenic illite formed in the anchizone, with typical ICT values between 10 and 50 nm. In three samples containing authigenic illite from Cretaceous carbonates in the Monterrey Salient in northern Mexico, there is a range in TGAs among the different size-fractions of 46-49, 36-43 and 40-52 Ma, while RAs range from 54-64, 47-52 and 53-54 Ma, respectively. XCA calculations produce tighter age ranges for these samples of 52.5-56, 45.5-48.5 and 49-52.5 Ma, respectively. In an apparent age vs ICT or %2M 1illite plot, authigenic illite grains show a slope that is in general slightly positive for TGA, slightly negative for RA, but close to zero for XCA, with thinner crystallites showing more dispersion than thicker ones. In order to test if dispersion is due to a different formation history or the result of retention capability, degassing spectra were modeled for site XCA averages and overall XCA average. Modeling shows that local site age average best match the measured spectra, instead of a global average age, indicating that illite growth reflects local deformation, and is not the result of regional metamorphism. Modeling also shows that Ar-degassing spectra are very sensitive to grain size, such that age interpretation based on Ar-plateaus is meaningless for most fine-grained clays.

An analysis of age-prevalence data by catalytic models

PubMed Central

Hairston, Nelson G.

1965-01-01

The analysis of age-prevalence curves obtained from bilharziasis surveys is not usually carried out to the maximum depth the data allow for. With a view to obtaining greater value from the available information, the author analyses age-prevalence data for three common human schistosomes by Muench's catalytic models. The two-stage model is found the most appropriate. Use of this model assumes constant rates of becoming positive and of becoming negative. Two separate analyses are required, one for the first few years of life of the human host and one for the remainder. Satisfactory fits to the data are obtained only when the proportion of older people who remain positive is determined. This proportion varies with the intensity of transmission. The calculated rates of becoming positive agree very well with rates obtained by observing originally negative children for 12 months or longer. The parameters in the model are used in interpreting data from skin-test surveys. It is concluded tentatively that in order to be positive by the skin test, a person must have had both sexes of worms at some time in the past and to be carrying living female worms or to have been exposed recently to female cercariae. It may become possible to use the model to predict the entire age-prevalence curve from data on children, thus saving much effort in parasitological surveys. PMID:5294588

Hydrogen generation in CSP plants and maintenance of DPO/BP heat transfer fluids - A simulation approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuckelkorn, Thomas; Jung, Christian; Gnädig, Tim; Lang, Christoph; Schall, Christina

2016-05-01

The ageing of diphenyl oxide/ biphenyl (DPO/BP) Heat Transfer Fluids (HTFs) implies challenging tasks for operators of parabolic trough power plants in order to find the economic optimum between plant performance and O&M costs. Focusing on the generation of hydrogen, which is effecting from the HTF ageing process, the balance of hydrogen pressure in the HTF is simulated for different operation scenarios. Accelerated build-up of hydrogen pressure in the HTF is causing increased permeation into the annular vacuum space of the installed receivers and must be avoided in order to maintain the performance of these components. Therefore, the effective hydrogen partial pressure in the HTF has to be controlled and limited according to the specified values so that the vacuum lifetime of the receivers and the overall plant performance can be ensured. In order to simulate and visualize the hydrogen balance of a typical parabolic trough plant, initially a simple model is used to calculate the balance of hydrogen in the system and this is described. As input data for the simulation, extrapolated hydrogen generation rates have been used, which were calculated from results of lab tests performed by DLR in Cologne, Germany. Hourly weather data, surface temperatures of the tubing system calculated by using the simulation tool from NREL, and hydrogen permeation rates for stainless steel and carbon steel grades taken from literature have been added to the model. In a first step the effect of HTF ageing, build-up of hydrogen pressure in the HTF and hydrogen loss rates through piping and receiver components have been modeled. In a second step a selective hydrogen removal process has been added to the model. The simulation results are confirming the need of active monitoring and controlling the effective hydrogen partial pressure in parabolic trough solar thermal power plants with DPO/BP HTF. Following the results of the simulation, the expected plant performance can only be achieved over lifetime, if the hydrogen partial pressure is actively controlled and limited.

The geochemical evolution of riparian ground water in a forested piedmont catchment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burns, Douglas A.; Plummer, Niel; McDonnell, Jeffrey J.; Busenberg, Eurybiades; Casile, Gerolamo C.; Kendall, Carol; Hooper, Richard P.; Freer, James E.; Peters, Norman E.; Beven, Keith; Schlosser, Peter

2003-01-01

The principal weathering reactions and their rates in riparian ground water were determined at the Panola Mountain Research Watershed (PMRW) near Atlanta, Georgia. Concentrations of major solutes were measured in ground water samples from 19 shallow wells completed in the riparian (saprolite) aquifer and in one borehole completed in granite, and the apparent age of each sample was calculated from chloroflourocarbons and tritium/helium-3 data. Concentrations of SiO2, Na+, and Ca2+ generally increased downvalley and were highest in the borehole near the watershed outlet. Strong positive correlations were found between the concentrations of these solutes and the apparent age of ground water that was modern (zero to one year) in the headwaters, six to seven years midway down the valley, and 26 to 27 years in the borehole, located ∼500 m downstream from the headwaters. Mass-balance modeling of chemical evolution showed that the downstream changes in ground water chemistry could be largely explained by weathering of plagioclase to kaolinite, with possible contributions from weathering of K-feldspar, biotite, hornblende, and calcite. The in situ rates of weathering reactions were estimated by combining the ground water age dates with geochemical mass-balance modeling results. The weathering rate was highest for plagioclase (∼6.4 μmol/L/year), but could not be easily compared with most other published results for feldspar weathering at PMRW and elsewhere because the mineral-surface area to which ground water was exposed during geochemical evolution could not be estimated. However, a preliminary estimate of the mineral-surface area that would have contacted the ground water to provide the observed solute concentrations suggests that the plagioclase weathering rate calculated in this study is similar to the rate calculated in a previous study at PMRW, and three to four orders of magnitude slower than those published in previous laboratory studies of feldspar weathering. An accurate model of the geochemical evolution of riparian ground water is necessary to accurately model the geochemical evolution of stream water at PMRW.

Age at initiation of amphetamine use and age at onset of psychosis: the Australian Survey of High Impact Psychosis.

PubMed

Power, Brian D; Stefanis, Nikos C; Dragovic, Milan; Jablensky, Assen; Castle, David; Morgan, Vera

2014-01-01

Individuals with a psychotic disorder who had a premorbid history of amphetamine use (n=382) were analyzed in groups according to age of initiation to amphetamine (AIA) and mean number of years of duration of premorbid exposure to amphetamine (DPEA) was calculated. Univariate General Linear Models were used to test for group differences in age at onset of psychotic illness (AOI) and DPEA. Although a temporal direct relationship between AIA and AOI was detected (mean duration 5.3 years), our findings suggested this association was spurious and better explained by a later initiation to amphetamine than to cannabis (by 2-3 years). Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Numerical study on the influences of Nanliu River runoff and tides on water age in Lianzhou Bay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Jing; Zhang, Xueqing; Liu, Jinliang; Liu, Rui; Wang, Xing

2016-09-01

The concept of water age is applied to calculate the timescales of the transport processes of freshwater in Lianzhou Bay, using a model based on ECOMSED. In this study, water age is defined as the time that has elapsed since the water parcel enters the Nanliu River. The results show that the mean age at a specified position and the runoff of the Nanliu River are well correlated and can be approximately expressed by a natural logarithmic function. During the neap tide, it takes 70, 60 and 40 days in the dry, normal and rainy seasons for water to travel from the mouth of the Nanliu River to the northeast of Lianzhou Bay, respectively, which is not beneficial to water exchange in the bay. Tides significantly influence the model results; it takes five less days for the tracer to be transported from the mouth of the Nanliu River to the north of Guantouling during the spring tide than during the neap tide.

The U/Th production ratio and the age of the Milky Way from meteorites and Galactic halo stars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dauphas, Nicolas

2005-06-01

Some heavy elements (with atomic number A > 69) are produced by the `rapid' (r)-process of nucleosynthesis, where lighter elements are bombarded with a massive flux of neutrons. Although this is characteristic of supernovae and neutron star mergers, uncertainties in where the r-process occurs persist because stellar models are too crude to allow precise quantification of this phenomenon. As a result, there are many uncertainties and assumptions in the models used to calculate the production ratios of actinides (like uranium-238 and thorium-232). Current estimates of the U/Th production ratio range from ~0.4 to 0.7. Here I show that the U/Th abundance ratio in meteorites can be used, in conjunction with observations of low-metallicity stars in the halo of the Milky Way, to determine the U/Th production ratio very precisely . This value can be used in future studies to constrain the possible nuclear mass formulae used in r-process calculations, to help determine the source of Galactic cosmic rays, and to date circumstellar grains. I also estimate the age of the Milky Way ( in a way that is independent of the uncertainties associated with fluctuations in the microwave background or models of stellar evolution.

Constraining Star Formation in Old Stellar Populations from Theoretical Spectra

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peterson, R. C.

2007-12-01

We are calculating stellar spectra using Kurucz codes, Castelli models, and Kurucz laboratory lines plus guesses; but must first finish adjusting gf values to match stars of solar metallicity and higher. We show that even now, 1D LTE spectral calculations fit a wide range of stellar spectra (from A to K types) over 2200 Å-9000Å once gf values are set to optimize them. Moreover, weighted coadditions of spectral calculations can be constructed that match M31 globular clusters over this entire wavelength range. Both stellar and composite grids will be archived on MAST. The age-metallicity degeneracy can be broken, but only with high-quality data, and only if rare stages of stellar evolution are incorporated where necessary.

Ice Cores Dating With a New Inverse Method Taking Account of the Flow Modeling Errors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lemieux-Dudon, B.; Parrenin, F.; Blayo, E.

2007-12-01

Deep ice cores extracted from Antarctica or Greenland recorded a wide range of past climatic events. In order to contribute to the Quaternary climate system understanding, the calculation of an accurate depth-age relationship is a crucial point. Up to now ice chronologies for deep ice cores estimated with inverse approaches are based on quite simplified ice-flow models that fail to reproduce flow irregularities and consequently to respect all available set of age markers. We describe in this paper, a new inverse method that takes into account the model uncertainty in order to circumvent the restrictions linked to the use of simplified flow models. This method uses first guesses on two flow physical entities, the ice thinning function and the accumulation rate and then identifies correction functions on both flow entities. We highlight two major benefits brought by this new method: first of all the ability to respect large set of observations and as a consequence, the feasibility to estimate a synchronized common ice chronology for several cores at the same time. This inverse approach relies on a bayesian framework. To respect the positive constraint on the searched correction functions, we assume lognormal probability distribution on one hand for the background errors, but also for one particular set of the observation errors. We test this new inversion method on three cores simultaneously (the two EPICA cores : DC and DML and the Vostok core) and we assimilate more than 150 observations (e.g.: age markers, stratigraphic links,...). We analyze the sensitivity of the solution with respect to the background information, especially the prior error covariance matrix. The confidence intervals based on the posterior covariance matrix calculation, are estimated on the correction functions and for the first time on the overall output chronologies.

GAPPARD: a computationally efficient method of approximating gap-scale disturbance in vegetation models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scherstjanoi, M.; Kaplan, J. O.; Thürig, E.; Lischke, H.

2013-09-01

Models of vegetation dynamics that are designed for application at spatial scales larger than individual forest gaps suffer from several limitations. Typically, either a population average approximation is used that results in unrealistic tree allometry and forest stand structure, or models have a high computational demand because they need to simulate both a series of age-based cohorts and a number of replicate patches to account for stochastic gap-scale disturbances. The detail required by the latter method increases the number of calculations by two to three orders of magnitude compared to the less realistic population average approach. In an effort to increase the efficiency of dynamic vegetation models without sacrificing realism, we developed a new method for simulating stand-replacing disturbances that is both accurate and faster than approaches that use replicate patches. The GAPPARD (approximating GAP model results with a Probabilistic Approach to account for stand Replacing Disturbances) method works by postprocessing the output of deterministic, undisturbed simulations of a cohort-based vegetation model by deriving the distribution of patch ages at any point in time on the basis of a disturbance probability. With this distribution, the expected value of any output variable can be calculated from the output values of the deterministic undisturbed run at the time corresponding to the patch age. To account for temporal changes in model forcing (e.g., as a result of climate change), GAPPARD performs a series of deterministic simulations and interpolates between the results in the postprocessing step. We integrated the GAPPARD method in the vegetation model LPJ-GUESS, and evaluated it in a series of simulations along an altitudinal transect of an inner-Alpine valley. We obtained results very similar to the output of the original LPJ-GUESS model that uses 100 replicate patches, but simulation time was reduced by approximately the factor 10. Our new method is therefore highly suited for rapidly approximating LPJ-GUESS results, and provides the opportunity for future studies over large spatial domains, allows easier parameterization of tree species, faster identification of areas of interesting simulation results, and comparisons with large-scale datasets and results of other forest models.

Caucasian facial L* shifts may communicate anti-ageing efficacy.

PubMed

Zedayko, T; Azriel, M; Kollias, N

2011-10-01

An ageing study was conducted to capture skin colour parameters in the CIELab system from Caucasians of both genders and all available adult ages. This study produced a linear correlation between L* and age for a Caucasian population between 20 and 59 years of age as follows: (L* value) = -0.13 × (Age in years) + 63.01. Previous studies have addressed age-related changes in skin colour. This work presents a novel consumer correlated quantitative linear model of skin brightness by which to communicate age-related changes. Two product assessment studies are also presented here, demonstrating the ability of anti-ageing products to deliver on objective and subjective improvements in skin brightness. It was determined to be possible to use the fundamental Caucasian L*-age correlation to describe product benefits in a novel quantitative and consumer-relevant fashion, through the depiction of a 'years back' calculation. © 2011 Johnson & Johnson Consumer Products Company. ICS © 2011 Society of Cosmetic Scientists and the Société Française de Cosmétologie.

Validating the Repetitive Behavior Scale-Revised in Young Children with Autism Spectrum Disorder

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mirenda, Pat; Smith, Isabel M.; Vaillancourt, Tracy; Georgiades, Stelios; Duku, Eric; Szatmari, Peter; Bryson, Susan; Fombonne, Eric; Roberts, Wendy; Volden, Joanne; Waddell, Charlotte; Zwaigenbaum, Lonnie

2010-01-01

This study examined the factor structure of the Repetitive Behavior Scale-Revised (RBS-R) in a sample of 287 preschool-aged children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD). A confirmatory factor analysis was used to examine six competing structural models. Spearman's rank order correlations were calculated to examine the associations between factor…

A Meta-Analysis of Peer-Mediated Interventions for Young Children with Autism Spectrum Disorders

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zhang, Jie; Wheeler, John J.

2011-01-01

This meta-analysis investigated the efficacy of peer-mediated interventions for promoting social interactions among children from birth to eight years of age diagnosed with ASD. Forty-five single-subject design studies were analyzed and the effect sizes were calculated by the regression model developed by Allison and Gorman (1993). The overall…

Effect of Long Working Hours on Self-reported Hypertension among Middle-aged and Older Wage Workers

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Objectives Many studies have reported an association between overwork and hypertension. However, research on the health effects of long working hours has yielded inconclusive results. The objective of this study was to identify an association between overtime work and hypertension in wage workers 45 years and over of age using prospective data. Methods Wage workers in Korea aged 45 years and over were selected for inclusion in this study from among 10,254 subjects from the Korean Longitudinal Study of Ageing. Workers with baseline hypertension and those with other major diseases were excluded. In the end, a total of 1,079 subjects were included. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to calculate hazard ratios and adjust for baseline characteristics such as sex, age, education, income, occupation, form of employment, body mass index, alcohol habit, smoking habit, regular exercise, and number of working days per week. Additional models were used to calculate hazard ratios after gender stratification. Results Among the 1,079 subjects, 85 workers were diagnosed with hypertension during 3974.2 person-months. The average number of working hours per week for all subjects was 47.68. The proportion of overtime workers was 61.0% (cutoff, 40 h per week). Compared with those working 40 h and less per week, the hazard ratio of subjects in the final model, which adjusted for all selected variables, working 41-50 h per week was 2.20 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.19–4.06), that of subjects working 51-60 h per week was 2.40 (95% CI, 1.07–5.39), and that of subjects working 61 h and over per week was 2.87 (95% CI, 1.33–6.20). In gender stratification models, the hazard ratio of the females tended to be higher than that of the males. Conclusion As the number of working hours per week increased, the hazard ratio for diagnosis of hypertension significantly increased. This result suggests a positive association between overtime work and the risk of hypertension. PMID:25852938

Effect of Long Working Hours on Self-reported Hypertension among Middle-aged and Older Wage Workers.

PubMed

Yoo, Dong Hyun; Kang, Mo-Yeol; Paek, Domyung; Min, Bokki; Cho, Sung-Il

2014-01-01

Many studies have reported an association between overwork and hypertension. However, research on the health effects of long working hours has yielded inconclusive results. The objective of this study was to identify an association between overtime work and hypertension in wage workers 45 years and over of age using prospective data. Wage workers in Korea aged 45 years and over were selected for inclusion in this study from among 10,254 subjects from the Korean Longitudinal Study of Ageing. Workers with baseline hypertension and those with other major diseases were excluded. In the end, a total of 1,079 subjects were included. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to calculate hazard ratios and adjust for baseline characteristics such as sex, age, education, income, occupation, form of employment, body mass index, alcohol habit, smoking habit, regular exercise, and number of working days per week. Additional models were used to calculate hazard ratios after gender stratification. Among the 1,079 subjects, 85 workers were diagnosed with hypertension during 3974.2 person-months. The average number of working hours per week for all subjects was 47.68. The proportion of overtime workers was 61.0% (cutoff, 40 h per week). Compared with those working 40 h and less per week, the hazard ratio of subjects in the final model, which adjusted for all selected variables, working 41-50 h per week was 2.20 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.19-4.06), that of subjects working 51-60 h per week was 2.40 (95% CI, 1.07-5.39), and that of subjects working 61 h and over per week was 2.87 (95% CI, 1.33-6.20). In gender stratification models, the hazard ratio of the females tended to be higher than that of the males. As the number of working hours per week increased, the hazard ratio for diagnosis of hypertension significantly increased. This result suggests a positive association between overtime work and the risk of hypertension.

Mobile phone types and SAR characteristics of the human brain.

PubMed

Lee, Ae-Kyoung; Hong, Seon-Eui; Kwon, Jong-Hwa; Choi, Hyung-Do; Cardis, Elisabeth

2017-04-07

Mobile phones differ in terms of their operating frequency, outer shape, and form and location of the antennae, all of which affect the spatial distributions of their electromagnetic field and the level of electromagnetic absorption in the human head or brain. For this paper, the specific absorption rate (SAR) was calculated for four anatomical head models at different ages using 11 numerical phone models of different shapes and antenna configurations. The 11 models represent phone types accounting for around 86% of the approximately 1400 commercial phone models released into the Korean market since 2002. Seven of the phone models selected have an internal dual-band antenna, and the remaining four possess an external antenna. Each model was intended to generate an average absorption level equivalent to that of the same type of commercial phone model operating at the maximum available output power. The 1 g peak spatial SAR and ipsilateral and contralateral brain-averaged SARs were reported for all 11 phone models. The effects of the phone type, phone position, operating frequency, and age of head models on the brain SAR were comprehensively determined.

Mobile phone types and SAR characteristics of the human brain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Ae-Kyoung; Hong, Seon-Eui; Kwon, Jong-Hwa; Choi, Hyung-Do; Cardis, Elisabeth

2017-04-01

Mobile phones differ in terms of their operating frequency, outer shape, and form and location of the antennae, all of which affect the spatial distributions of their electromagnetic field and the level of electromagnetic absorption in the human head or brain. For this paper, the specific absorption rate (SAR) was calculated for four anatomical head models at different ages using 11 numerical phone models of different shapes and antenna configurations. The 11 models represent phone types accounting for around 86% of the approximately 1400 commercial phone models released into the Korean market since 2002. Seven of the phone models selected have an internal dual-band antenna, and the remaining four possess an external antenna. Each model was intended to generate an average absorption level equivalent to that of the same type of commercial phone model operating at the maximum available output power. The 1 g peak spatial SAR and ipsilateral and contralateral brain-averaged SARs were reported for all 11 phone models. The effects of the phone type, phone position, operating frequency, and age of head models on the brain SAR were comprehensively determined.

Application of the 226Ra– 230Th– 234U and 227Ac– 231Pa– 235U radiochronometers to uranium certified reference materials

DOE PAGES

Rolison, John M.; Treinen, Kerri C.; McHugh, Kelly C.; ...

2017-11-06

Uranium certified reference materials (CRM) issued by New Brunswick Laboratory were subjected to dating using four independent uranium-series radiochronometers. In all cases, there was acceptable agreement between the model ages calculated using the 231Pa– 235U, 230Th– 234U, 227Ac– 235U or 226Ra– 234U radiochronometers and either the certified 230Th– 234U model date (CRM 125-A and CRM U630), or the known purification date (CRM U050 and CRM U100). Finally, the agreement between the four independent radiochronometers establishes these uranium certified reference materials as ideal informal standards for validating dating techniques utilized in nuclear forensic investigations in the absence of standards with certifiedmore » model ages for multiple radiochronometers.« less

Application of the 226Ra– 230Th– 234U and 227Ac– 231Pa– 235U radiochronometers to uranium certified reference materials

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rolison, John M.; Treinen, Kerri C.; McHugh, Kelly C.

Uranium certified reference materials (CRM) issued by New Brunswick Laboratory were subjected to dating using four independent uranium-series radiochronometers. In all cases, there was acceptable agreement between the model ages calculated using the 231Pa– 235U, 230Th– 234U, 227Ac– 235U or 226Ra– 234U radiochronometers and either the certified 230Th– 234U model date (CRM 125-A and CRM U630), or the known purification date (CRM U050 and CRM U100). Finally, the agreement between the four independent radiochronometers establishes these uranium certified reference materials as ideal informal standards for validating dating techniques utilized in nuclear forensic investigations in the absence of standards with certifiedmore » model ages for multiple radiochronometers.« less

Developing 226Ra and 227Ac age-dating techniques for nuclear forensics to gain insight from concordant and non-concordant radiochronometers

DOE PAGES

Kayzar, Theresa M.; Williams, Ross W.

2015-09-26

The model age or ‘date of purification’ of a nuclear material is an important nuclear forensic signature. In this study, chemical separation and MC-ICP-MS measurement techniques were developed for 226 Ra and 227Ac: grand-daughter nuclides in the 238U and 235U decay chains respectively. The 230Th- 234U, 226Ra- 238U, 231Pa- 235U, and 227Ac- 235U radiochronometers were used to calculate model ages for CRM-U100 standard reference material and two highly-enriched pieces of uranium metal from the International Technical Working Group Round Robin 3 Exercise. In conclusion, the results demonstrate the accuracy of the 226Ra- 238U and 227Ac- 235U chronometers and provide informationmore » about nuclide migration during uranium processing.« less

Developing 226Ra and 227Ac age-dating techniques for nuclear forensics to gain insight from concordant and non-concordant radiochronometers

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kayzar, Theresa M.; Williams, Ross W.

The model age or ‘date of purification’ of a nuclear material is an important nuclear forensic signature. In this study, chemical separation and MC-ICP-MS measurement techniques were developed for 226 Ra and 227Ac: grand-daughter nuclides in the 238U and 235U decay chains respectively. The 230Th- 234U, 226Ra- 238U, 231Pa- 235U, and 227Ac- 235U radiochronometers were used to calculate model ages for CRM-U100 standard reference material and two highly-enriched pieces of uranium metal from the International Technical Working Group Round Robin 3 Exercise. In conclusion, the results demonstrate the accuracy of the 226Ra- 238U and 227Ac- 235U chronometers and provide informationmore » about nuclide migration during uranium processing.« less

UDATE1: A computer program for the calculation of uranium-series isotopic ages

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rosenbauer, R.J.

1991-01-01

UDATE1 is a FORTRAN-77 program with an interface for an Apple Macintosh computer that calculates isotope activities from measured count rates to date geologic materials by uranium-series disequilibria. Dates on pure samples can be determined directly by the accumulation of 230Th from 234U and of 231Pa from 235U. Dates for samples contaminated by clays containing abundant natural thorium can be corrected by the program using various mixing models. Input to the program and file management are made simple and user friendly by a series of Macintosh modal dialog boxes. ?? 1991.

Growth curves for ostriches (Struthio camelus) in a Brazilian population.

PubMed

Ramos, S B; Caetano, S L; Savegnago, R P; Nunes, B N; Ramos, A A; Munari, D P

2013-01-01

The objective of this study was to fit growth curves using nonlinear and linear functions to describe the growth of ostriches in a Brazilian population. The data set consisted of 112 animals with BW measurements from hatching to 383 d of age. Two nonlinear growth functions (Gompertz and logistic) and a third-order polynomial function were applied. The parameters for the models were estimated using the least-squares method and Gauss-Newton algorithm. The goodness-of-fit of the models was assessed using R(2) and the Akaike information criterion. The R(2) calculated for the logistic growth model was 0.945 for hens and 0.928 for cockerels and for the Gompertz growth model, 0.938 for hens and 0.924 for cockerels. The third-order polynomial fit gave R(2) of 0.938 for hens and 0.924 for cockerels. Among the Akaike information criterion calculations, the logistic growth model presented the lowest values in this study, both for hens and for cockerels. Nonlinear models are more appropriate for describing the sigmoid nature of ostrich growth.

Evidence for active hotspots on Venus from analysis of Magellan gravity data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smrekar, Suzanne E.

1994-01-01

The 500-Myr average crater retention age for Venus has raised questions about the present-day level of tectonic activity. In this study we examine the relationship between the gravity and topography of four large volcanic swells, Beta, Atla, Bell, and Western Eistla Regiones, for clues about their stage evolution. The Magellan line-of-sight gravity data are inverted using a point mass model of the anomalous mass to solve for the local vertical gravity field. Spectral admittance calculated from both the local gravity inversions and a spherical harmonic model is compared to three models of compensation: local compensation, a 'flexural' model with local and regional compensation of surface and subsurface loads, and a 'hotspot' model of compensation that includes top loading by volcanoes and subsurface loading due to a deep, low density mass anomaly. The coherence is also calculated in each region, but yields an elastic thickness estimate only at Bell Regio. In all models, the long wavelengths are compensated locally. Our results may indicate a relatively old, possibly inactive plume.

Planning Training Loads for the 400 M Hurdles in Three-Month Mesocycles using Artificial Neural Networks.

PubMed

Przednowek, Krzysztof; Iskra, Janusz; Wiktorowicz, Krzysztof; Krzeszowski, Tomasz; Maszczyk, Adam

2017-12-01

This paper presents a novel approach to planning training loads in hurdling using artificial neural networks. The neural models performed the task of generating loads for athletes' training for the 400 meters hurdles. All the models were calculated based on the training data of 21 Polish National Team hurdlers, aged 22.25 ± 1.96, competing between 1989 and 2012. The analysis included 144 training plans that represented different stages in the annual training cycle. The main contribution of this paper is to develop neural models for planning training loads for the entire career of a typical hurdler. In the models, 29 variables were used, where four characterized the runner and 25 described the training process. Two artificial neural networks were used: a multi-layer perceptron and a network with radial basis functions. To assess the quality of the models, the leave-one-out cross-validation method was used in which the Normalized Root Mean Squared Error was calculated. The analysis shows that the method generating the smallest error was the radial basis function network with nine neurons in the hidden layer. Most of the calculated training loads demonstrated a non-linear relationship across the entire competitive period. The resulting model can be used as a tool to assist a coach in planning training loads during a selected training period.

Planning Training Loads for the 400 M Hurdles in Three-Month Mesocycles using Artificial Neural Networks

PubMed Central

Iskra, Janusz; Wiktorowicz, Krzysztof; Krzeszowski, Tomasz; Maszczyk, Adam

2017-01-01

Abstract This paper presents a novel approach to planning training loads in hurdling using artificial neural networks. The neural models performed the task of generating loads for athletes’ training for the 400 meters hurdles. All the models were calculated based on the training data of 21 Polish National Team hurdlers, aged 22.25 ± 1.96, competing between 1989 and 2012. The analysis included 144 training plans that represented different stages in the annual training cycle. The main contribution of this paper is to develop neural models for planning training loads for the entire career of a typical hurdler. In the models, 29 variables were used, where four characterized the runner and 25 described the training process. Two artificial neural networks were used: a multi-layer perceptron and a network with radial basis functions. To assess the quality of the models, the leave-one-out cross-validation method was used in which the Normalized Root Mean Squared Error was calculated. The analysis shows that the method generating the smallest error was the radial basis function network with nine neurons in the hidden layer. Most of the calculated training loads demonstrated a non-linear relationship across the entire competitive period. The resulting model can be used as a tool to assist a coach in planning training loads during a selected training period. PMID:29339998

[Risk factors of small for the gestational age neonates in a hospital of Lima, Peru].

PubMed

Tejeda-Mariaca, J Eduardo; Pizango-Mallqui, Orion; Alburquerque-Duglio, Miguel; Mayta-Tristán, Percy

2015-01-01

Identify risk factors for at-term small for gestational age newborns. Retrospective cohort study using data from the Maternal Perinatal Information System of the Maria Auxiliadora Hospital of Lima, from the period 2000-2010. Maternal age, parity, education level, marital status, pregestational body mass index, number of prenatal care visits, presence of conditions such as preeclampsia, eclampsia, urinary tract infection and gestational diabetes as risk factors in small for gestational age newborns were evaluated. The weight for gestational age was calculated based on Peruvian percentiles. Crude relative risk (RR) and adjusted (ARR) were calculated with confidence intervals of 95% using log-binomial generalized linear models. 64,670 pregnant women were included. The incidence for small for gestational age was 7.2%. Preeclampsia (ARR 2.0, 95% CI: 1.86 to 2.15), eclampsia (ARR 3.22, 95% CI: 2.38 to 4.35), low maternal weight (ARR 1.38; 95% CI: 1.23 to 1.54), nulliparity (ARR 1.32, 95% CI: 1.23 to 1.42), age ≥35 years (ARR 1.16, 95% CI: 1.04 -1.29), having prenatal care visits from 0 to 2 (ARR 1.43, 95% CI: 1.32 to 1.55) and 3 to 5 (ARR 1.22, 95% CI: 1.14 to 1.32) were risk factors for small for gestational age. It is necessary to identify pregnant women with risk factors such as those found to decrease the condition of small for gestational age. Actions should emphasize modifiable factors, such as the frequency of prenatal care visits.

Revisiting dark energy models using differential ages of galaxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rani, Nisha; Jain, Deepak; Mahajan, Shobhit; Mukherjee, Amitabha; Biesiada, Marek

2017-03-01

In this work, we use a test based on the differential ages of galaxies for distinguishing the dark energy models. As proposed by Jimenez and Loeb in [1], relative ages of galaxies can be used to put constraints on various cosmological parameters. In the same vein, we reconstruct H0dt/dz and its derivative (H0d2t/dz2) using a model independent technique called non-parametric smoothing. Basically, dt/dz is the change in the age of the object as a function of redshift which is directly linked with the Hubble parameter. Hence for reconstruction of this quantity, we use the most recent H(z) data. Further, we calculate H0dt/dz and its derivative for several models like Phantom, Einstein de Sitter (EdS), ΛCDM, Chevallier-Polarski-Linder (CPL) parametrization, Jassal-Bagla-Padmanabhan (JBP) parametrization and Feng-Shen-Li-Li (FSLL) parametrization. We check the consistency of these models with the results of reconstruction obtained in a model independent way from the data. It is observed that H0dt/dz as a tool is not able to distinguish between the ΛCDM, CPL, JBP and FSLL parametrizations but, as expected, EdS and Phantom models show noticeable deviation from the reconstructed results. Further, the derivative of H0dt/dz for various dark energy models is more sensitive at low redshift. It is found that the FSLL model is not consistent with the reconstructed results, however, the ΛCDM model is in concordance with the 3σ region of the reconstruction at redshift z>= 0.3.

Transit-time and age distributions for nonlinear time-dependent compartmental systems.

PubMed

Metzler, Holger; Müller, Markus; Sierra, Carlos A

2018-02-06

Many processes in nature are modeled using compartmental systems (reservoir/pool/box systems). Usually, they are expressed as a set of first-order differential equations describing the transfer of matter across a network of compartments. The concepts of age of matter in compartments and the time required for particles to transit the system are important diagnostics of these models with applications to a wide range of scientific questions. Until now, explicit formulas for transit-time and age distributions of nonlinear time-dependent compartmental systems were not available. We compute densities for these types of systems under the assumption of well-mixed compartments. Assuming that a solution of the nonlinear system is available at least numerically, we show how to construct a linear time-dependent system with the same solution trajectory. We demonstrate how to exploit this solution to compute transit-time and age distributions in dependence on given start values and initial age distributions. Furthermore, we derive equations for the time evolution of quantiles and moments of the age distributions. Our results generalize available density formulas for the linear time-independent case and mean-age formulas for the linear time-dependent case. As an example, we apply our formulas to a nonlinear and a linear version of a simple global carbon cycle model driven by a time-dependent input signal which represents fossil fuel additions. We derive time-dependent age distributions for all compartments and calculate the time it takes to remove fossil carbon in a business-as-usual scenario.

The Gini coefficient: a methodological pilot study to assess fetal brain development employing postmortem diffusion MRI.

PubMed

Viehweger, Adrian; Riffert, Till; Dhital, Bibek; Knösche, Thomas R; Anwander, Alfred; Stepan, Holger; Sorge, Ina; Hirsch, Wolfgang

2014-10-01

Diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI) is important in the assessment of fetal brain development. However, it is clinically challenging and time-consuming to prepare neuromorphological examinations to assess real brain age and to detect abnormalities. To demonstrate that the Gini coefficient can be a simple, intuitive parameter for modelling fetal brain development. Postmortem fetal specimens(n = 28) were evaluated by diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI) on a 3-T MRI scanner using 60 directions, 0.7-mm isotropic voxels and b-values of 0, 150, 1,600 s/mm(2). Constrained spherical deconvolution (CSD) was used as the local diffusion model. Fractional anisotropy (FA), apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) and complexity (CX) maps were generated. CX was defined as a novel diffusion metric. On the basis of those three parameters, the Gini coefficient was calculated. Study of fetal brain development in postmortem specimens was feasible using DWI. The Gini coefficient could be calculated for the combination of the three diffusion parameters. This multidimensional Gini coefficient correlated well with age (Adjusted R(2) = 0.59) between the ages of 17 and 26 gestational weeks. We propose a new method that uses an economics concept, the Gini coefficient, to describe the whole brain with one simple and intuitive measure, which can be used to assess the brain's developmental state.

Five millions years of paleosecular variations from the Golan Heights volcanic field, Israel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Behar, N.; Shaar, R.; Asefaw, H.; Ebert, Y.; Koppers, A.; Tauxe, L.

2017-12-01

One of the most fundamental assumption in paleomagnetism is that the averaged geomagnetic field on geological timescales is a geocentric axial dipole (GAD). Given the first order importance of the GAD hypothesis, it is essential to rigorously test its validity and to understand the limits of its use. Additionally, it is equally vital to characterize statistically paleomagnetic secular variations (PSV) over timescales of 106 years. The Plio-Pleistocene volcanic field in the Golan Heights, Israel (32.7°N-33.3°N) is a nearly ideal location to investigate these issues, owing to excellent exposure of basaltic flows, dated using more than 100 radiometric (K/Ar and Ar/Ar) ages covering the past 5 Myr. Here we present new data from 89 basalt flows from the Golan Heights with ages spanning from 5.4 Ma to 0.1 Ma, and 18 new Ar/Ar ages. This relatively large dataset allows us to calculate three different Virtual Geomagnetic Poles (VGP): Pleistocene, Pliocene, and a combined Plio-Pleistocene. From each pole we calculate the inclination anomaly (ΔI) and the VGP scatter parameter (SB). The Pleistocene pole yields a VGP scatter parameter around SB =13, lower than predictions of PSV models. Also, it demonstrates negligible inclination anomaly of less than 2°, suggesting validation of the GAD model. The Pliocene pole shows a larger scatter (SB 18) and a negative inclination anomaly around ΔI = -7°. We discuss these results in view of the worldwide paleomagnetic database and the available PSV models.

Meta-analysis of cranial CT scans in children. A mathematical model to predict radiation-induced tumors.

PubMed

Stein, Sherman C; Hurst, Robert W; Sonnad, Seema S

2008-01-01

We aimed to estimate the risks of radiation exposure from a single head CT scan to children of different ages. We constructed a multistate time-dependent Markov model to simulate the course of children exposed to a head CT. The relevant literature was reviewed for probabilities, which were used to calculate tumor types, latencies after exposure and outcomes in the model. Where multiple approximations of the same probability had been reported, meta-analytic techniques were employed to compute pooled estimates. The model was then used to calculate the effect of the radiation exposure on life expectancy and quality of life for children following head CT at different ages. The tumors likely to be induced by low-level cranial irradiation include thyroid carcinoma (47%), meningioma (34%) and glioma (19%). According to the model, a single head CT is likely to cause one of these tumors in 0.22% of 1-year-olds, 30% of whom will consequently die. The exposure will shorten the life expectancy of all exposed 1-year-olds by an average of 0.04 years and their expected quality of life by 0.02 quality-adjusted life years. The risks of radiation exposure diminish for older children. The model predicts that the effective radiation dose from a single head CT is capable of inducing a thyroid or brain tumor in an infant or child. These tumors can severely impact both quality of life and life expectancy. Care should be taken before ordering CT scans in children, particularly in infants and toddlers. Copyright 2008 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Modeling developmental changes in functional capacities and soccer-specific skills in male players aged 11-17 years.

PubMed

Valente-dos-Santos, João; Coelho-e-Silva, Manuel J; Simões, Filipe; Figueiredo, Antonio J; Leite, Neiva; Elferink-Gemser, Marije T; Malina, Robert M; Sherar, Lauren

2012-11-01

This study evaluates the contributions of age, growth, skeletal maturation, playing position and training to longitudinal changes in functional and skill performance in male youth soccer. Players were annually followed over 5 years (n = 83, 4.4 measurements per player). Composite scores for functional and skill domains were calculated to provide an overall estimate of performance. Players were also classified by maturity status and playing position at baseline. After testing for multicollinearity, two-level multilevel (longitudinal) regression models were obtained for functional and skill composite scores. The scores improved with age and training. Body mass was an additional predictor in both models [functional (late maturing): 13.48 + 1.05 × centered on chronological age (CA)-0.01 × centered CA(2)-0.19 × fat mass (FM) + 0.004 × annual volume training-1.04 × dribbling speed; skills (defenders): 7.62 + 0.62 × centered CA-0.06 × centered CA(2) + 0.04 × fat-free mass-0.03 x FM + 0.005 × annual volume training-0.19 × repeated-sprint ability + 0.02 × aerobic endurance]. Skeletal maturity status was a significant predictor of functional capacities and playing position of skill performance. Sound accuracy of each multilevel model was demonstrated on an independent cross-sectional sample (n = 52).

User Manual for Personnel Inventory Aging and Promotion Model

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-06-01

increased by 12. Now, an SQL 9 statement deletes records where [target] = NULL, and the model calculates the number of E8s that need to be promoted to...the run, the [Likelihood] and [Expected] tables are created. The first step in this process is to dy- namically build an SQL statement, based on the...This table has individual-level, longitudinal records. Next, a dy- namically built SQL statement based on the Number of Years, cre- ates a new data

Origin of discrepancies between crater size-frequency distributions of coeval lunar geologic units via target property contrasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Bogert, C. H.; Hiesinger, H.; Dundas, C. M.; Krüger, T.; McEwen, A. S.; Zanetti, M.; Robinson, M. S.

2017-12-01

Recent work on dating Copernican-aged craters, using Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) Camera data, re-encountered a curious discrepancy in crater size-frequency distribution (CSFD) measurements that was observed, but not understood, during the Apollo era. For example, at Tycho, Copernicus, and Aristarchus craters, CSFDs of impact melt deposits give significantly younger relative and absolute model ages (AMAs) than impact ejecta blankets, although these two units formed during one impact event, and would ideally yield coeval ages at the resolution of the CSFD technique. We investigated the effects of contrasting target properties on CSFDs and their resultant relative and absolute model ages for coeval lunar impact melt and ejecta units. We counted craters with diameters through the transition from strength- to gravity-scaling on two large impact melt deposits at Tycho and King craters, and we used pi-group scaling calculations to model the effects of differing target properties on final crater diameters for five different theoretical lunar targets. The new CSFD for the large King Crater melt pond bridges the gap between the discrepant CSFDs within a single geologic unit. Thus, the observed trends in the impact melt CSFDs support the occurrence of target property effects, rather than self-secondary and/or field secondary contamination. The CSFDs generated from the pi-group scaling calculations show that targets with higher density and effective strength yield smaller crater diameters than weaker targets, such that the relative ages of the former are lower relative to the latter. Consequently, coeval impact melt and ejecta units will have discrepant apparent ages. Target property differences also affect the resulting slope of the CSFD, with stronger targets exhibiting shallower slopes, so that the final crater diameters may differ more greatly at smaller diameters. Besides their application to age dating, the CSFDs may provide additional information about the characteristics of the target. For example, the transition diameter from strength- to gravity-scaling could provide a tool for investigating the relative strengths of different geologic units. The magnitude of the offset between the impact melt and ejecta isochrons may also provide information about the relative target properties and/or exposure/degradation ages of the two units. Robotic or human sampling of coeval units on the Moon could provide a direct test of the importance and magnitude of target property effects on CSFDs.

Origin of discrepancies between crater size-frequency distributions of coeval lunar geologic units via target property contrasts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Van der Bogert, Carolyn H.; Hiesinger, Harald; Dundas, Colin M.; Kruger, T.; McEwen, Alfred S.; Zanetti, Michael; Robinson, Mark S.

2017-01-01

Recent work on dating Copernican-aged craters, using Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) Camera data, re-encountered a curious discrepancy in crater size-frequency distribution (CSFD) measurements that was observed, but not understood, during the Apollo era. For example, at Tycho, Copernicus, and Aristarchus craters, CSFDs of impact melt deposits give significantly younger relative and absolute model ages (AMAs) than impact ejecta blankets, although these two units formed during one impact event, and would ideally yield coeval ages at the resolution of the CSFD technique. We investigated the effects of contrasting target properties on CSFDs and their resultant relative and absolute model ages for coeval lunar impact melt and ejecta units. We counted craters with diameters through the transition from strength- to gravity-scaling on two large impact melt deposits at Tycho and King craters, and we used pi-group scaling calculations to model the effects of differing target properties on final crater diameters for five different theoretical lunar targets. The new CSFD for the large King Crater melt pond bridges the gap between the discrepant CSFDs within a single geologic unit. Thus, the observed trends in the impact melt CSFDs support the occurrence of target property effects, rather than self-secondary and/or field secondary contamination. The CSFDs generated from the pi-group scaling calculations show that targets with higher density and effective strength yield smaller crater diameters than weaker targets, such that the relative ages of the former are lower relative to the latter. Consequently, coeval impact melt and ejecta units will have discrepant apparent ages. Target property differences also affect the resulting slope of the CSFD, with stronger targets exhibiting shallower slopes, so that the final crater diameters may differ more greatly at smaller diameters. Besides their application to age dating, the CSFDs may provide additional information about the characteristics of the target. For example, the transition diameter from strength- to gravity-scaling could provide a tool for investigating the relative strengths of different geologic units. The magnitude of the offset between the impact melt and ejecta isochrons may also provide information about the relative target properties and/or exposure/degradation ages of the two units. Robotic or human sampling of coeval units on the Moon could provide a direct test of the importance and magnitude of target property effects on CSFDs.

On the Star Formation Rate, Initial Mass Function, and Hubble Type of Disk Galaxies and the Age of the Universe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sommer-Larsen, Jesper

1996-01-01

Evolutionary models for the disks of large disk galaxies, including effects of star formation, non-instantaneous gas recycling from stars, and infall of low-metallicity gas from the halo, have been calculated and compared with data for nearby, generally large disk galaxies on present disk star-formation rates (based on integrated Hα luminosities) as a function of disk gas fractions. The data were extracted from the work by Kennicutt, Tamblyn, & Congdon. The result of the comparison suggests that for disk galaxies the Hubble sequence is a disk age sequence, with early-type disks being the oldest and late types the youngest. Under the assumption of a minimum age of the Galactic disk of 10 Gyr, the mean age of Sa/Sab galaxies, and hence the age of the universe, is found to be at least 17±2 Gyr. It is furthermore found that the disk star-formation timescale is approximately independent of disk-galaxy type. Finally, it is found that the global initial mass function (IMF) in galactic disks is 2-3 times more weighted toward high-mass stars than the Scalo "best-fitting" model for the solar-neighborhood IMF. The more top-heavy model of Kennicutt provides a good fit to observation.

[Influences of genetic and environmental factors on smoking related behaviors among male twin adults in China].

PubMed

Bao, Z Q; Yu, C Q; Wang, B Q; Cao, W H; Gao, W J; Lyu, J; Wang, S F; Pang, Z C; Cong, L M; Dong, Z; Wu, F; Wang, H; Wu, X P; Wang, D Z; Wang, X J; Wang, B Y; Li, L M

2016-05-01

To analyze the influences of genetic and environmental factors on smoking behavior, smoking cessation and onset age of smoking less than 20 years in male twin adults. A face-to-face questionnaire was conducted to collect data from 6 458 pair male twins aged ≥25 years registered in 9 provinces(municipality)in China. The heritability of three smoking related behaviors were calculated by using structural equation models. The ACE models were the best models of the three dimensions of smoking, i.e. smoking behavior, smoking cessation and onset age of smoking less than 20 years for male twins, and the corresponding heritability of these behaviors were 0.26(0.19-0.34), 0.27(0.19-0.37)and 0.05(0.00-0.14), respectively. When adjusted for area and age, the heritability of these three behaviors were 0.26(0.19-0.34), 0.31(0.00-0.74)and 0.05(0.00-0.14), respectively. All the three smoking related behaviors were affected by genetic factors, but environment factors had more effect on them. For smoking cessation, the heritability was highest, but the influence of environmental factors was lowest. Meanwhile, for onset age of smoking, the influence of environmental factors was highest.

Performance of a Deep-Learning Neural Network Model in Assessing Skeletal Maturity on Pediatric Hand Radiographs.

PubMed

Larson, David B; Chen, Matthew C; Lungren, Matthew P; Halabi, Safwan S; Stence, Nicholas V; Langlotz, Curtis P

2018-04-01

Purpose To compare the performance of a deep-learning bone age assessment model based on hand radiographs with that of expert radiologists and that of existing automated models. Materials and Methods The institutional review board approved the study. A total of 14 036 clinical hand radiographs and corresponding reports were obtained from two children's hospitals to train and validate the model. For the first test set, composed of 200 examinations, the mean of bone age estimates from the clinical report and three additional human reviewers was used as the reference standard. Overall model performance was assessed by comparing the root mean square (RMS) and mean absolute difference (MAD) between the model estimates and the reference standard bone ages. Ninety-five percent limits of agreement were calculated in a pairwise fashion for all reviewers and the model. The RMS of a second test set composed of 913 examinations from the publicly available Digital Hand Atlas was compared with published reports of an existing automated model. Results The mean difference between bone age estimates of the model and of the reviewers was 0 years, with a mean RMS and MAD of 0.63 and 0.50 years, respectively. The estimates of the model, the clinical report, and the three reviewers were within the 95% limits of agreement. RMS for the Digital Hand Atlas data set was 0.73 years, compared with 0.61 years of a previously reported model. Conclusion A deep-learning convolutional neural network model can estimate skeletal maturity with accuracy similar to that of an expert radiologist and to that of existing automated models. © RSNA, 2017 An earlier incorrect version of this article appeared online. This article was corrected on January 19, 2018.

The stepping behavior analysis of pedestrians from different age groups via a single-file experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, Shuchao; Zhang, Jun; Song, Weiguo; Shi, Chang'an; Zhang, Ruifang

2018-03-01

The stepping behavior of pedestrians with different age compositions in single-file experiment is investigated in this paper. The relation between step length, step width and stepping time are analyzed by using the step measurement method based on the calculation of curvature of the trajectory. The relations of velocity-step width, velocity-step length and velocity-stepping time for different age groups are discussed and compared with previous studies. Finally effects of pedestrian gender and height on stepping laws and fundamental diagrams are analyzed. The study is helpful for understanding pedestrian dynamics of movement. Meanwhile, it offers experimental data to develop a microscopic model of pedestrian movement by considering stepping behavior.

Age difference in numeral recognition and calculation: an event-related potential study.

PubMed

Xuan, Dong; Wang, Suhong; Yang, Yilin; Meng, Ping; Xu, Feng; Yang, Wen; Sheng, Wei; Yang, Yuxia

2007-01-01

In this study, we investigated the age difference in numeral recognition and calculation in one group of school-aged children (n = 38) and one of undergraduate students (n = 26) using the event-related potential (ERP) methods. Consistent with previous reports, the age difference was significant in behavioral results. Both numeral recognition and calculation elicited a negativity peaking at about 170-280 ms (N2) and a positivity peaking at 200-470 ms (pSW) in raw ERPs, and a difference potential (dN3) between 360 and 450 ms. The difference between the two age groups indicated that more attention resources were devoted to arithmetical tasks in school-aged children, and that school-aged children and undergraduate students appear to use different strategies to solve arithmetical problems. The analysis of frontal negativity suggested that numeral recognition and mental calculation impose greater load on working memory and executive function in schoolchildren than in undergraduate students. The topography data determined that the parietal regions were responsible for arithmetical function in humans, and there was an age-related difference in the area of cerebral activation.

A refined method for calculating equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Engel, Andreas; Bönisch, Harald; Ostermöller, Jennifer; Chipperfield, Martyn P.; Dhomse, Sandip; Jöckel, Patrick

2018-01-01

Chlorine and bromine atoms lead to catalytic depletion of ozone in the stratosphere. Therefore the use and production of ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) containing chlorine and bromine is regulated by the Montreal Protocol to protect the ozone layer. Equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC) has been adopted as an appropriate metric to describe the combined effects of chlorine and bromine released from halocarbons on stratospheric ozone. Here we revisit the concept of calculating EESC. We derive a refined formulation of EESC based on an advanced concept of ODS propagation into the stratosphere and reactive halogen release. A new transit time distribution is introduced in which the age spectrum for an inert tracer is weighted with the release function for inorganic halogen from the source gases. This distribution is termed the release time distribution. We show that a much better agreement with inorganic halogen loading from the chemistry transport model TOMCAT is achieved compared with using the current formulation. The refined formulation shows EESC levels in the year 1980 for the mid-latitude lower stratosphere, which are significantly lower than previously calculated. The year 1980 is commonly used as a benchmark to which EESC must return in order to reach significant progress towards halogen and ozone recovery. Assuming that - under otherwise unchanged conditions - the EESC value must return to the same level in order for ozone to fully recover, we show that it will take more than 10 years longer than estimated in this region of the stratosphere with the current method for calculation of EESC. We also present a range of sensitivity studies to investigate the effect of changes and uncertainties in the fractional release factors and in the assumptions on the shape of the release time distributions. We further discuss the value of EESC as a proxy for future evolution of inorganic halogen loading under changing atmospheric dynamics using simulations from the EMAC model. We show that while the expected changes in stratospheric transport lead to significant differences between EESC and modelled inorganic halogen loading at constant mean age, EESC is a reasonable proxy for modelled inorganic halogen on a constant pressure level.

A kinetic energy model of two-vehicle crash injury severity.

PubMed

Sobhani, Amir; Young, William; Logan, David; Bahrololoom, Sareh

2011-05-01

An important part of any model of vehicle crashes is the development of a procedure to estimate crash injury severity. After reviewing existing models of crash severity, this paper outlines the development of a modelling approach aimed at measuring the injury severity of people in two-vehicle road crashes. This model can be incorporated into a discrete event traffic simulation model, using simulation model outputs as its input. The model can then serve as an integral part of a simulation model estimating the crash potential of components of the traffic system. The model is developed using Newtonian Mechanics and Generalised Linear Regression. The factors contributing to the speed change (ΔV(s)) of a subject vehicle are identified using the law of conservation of momentum. A Log-Gamma regression model is fitted to measure speed change (ΔV(s)) of the subject vehicle based on the identified crash characteristics. The kinetic energy applied to the subject vehicle is calculated by the model, which in turn uses a Log-Gamma Regression Model to estimate the Injury Severity Score of the crash from the calculated kinetic energy, crash impact type, presence of airbag and/or seat belt and occupant age. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Development and Validation of a Calculator for Estimating the Probability of Urinary Tract Infection in Young Febrile Children.

PubMed

Shaikh, Nader; Hoberman, Alejandro; Hum, Stephanie W; Alberty, Anastasia; Muniz, Gysella; Kurs-Lasky, Marcia; Landsittel, Douglas; Shope, Timothy

2018-06-01

Accurately estimating the probability of urinary tract infection (UTI) in febrile preverbal children is necessary to appropriately target testing and treatment. To develop and test a calculator (UTICalc) that can first estimate the probability of UTI based on clinical variables and then update that probability based on laboratory results. Review of electronic medical records of febrile children aged 2 to 23 months who were brought to the emergency department of Children's Hospital of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. An independent training database comprising 1686 patients brought to the emergency department between January 1, 2007, and April 30, 2013, and a validation database of 384 patients were created. Five multivariable logistic regression models for predicting risk of UTI were trained and tested. The clinical model included only clinical variables; the remaining models incorporated laboratory results. Data analysis was performed between June 18, 2013, and January 12, 2018. Documented temperature of 38°C or higher in children aged 2 months to less than 2 years. With the use of culture-confirmed UTI as the main outcome, cutoffs for high and low UTI risk were identified for each model. The resultant models were incorporated into a calculation tool, UTICalc, which was used to evaluate medical records. A total of 2070 children were included in the study. The training database comprised 1686 children, of whom 1216 (72.1%) were female and 1167 (69.2%) white. The validation database comprised 384 children, of whom 291 (75.8%) were female and 200 (52.1%) white. Compared with the American Academy of Pediatrics algorithm, the clinical model in UTICalc reduced testing by 8.1% (95% CI, 4.2%-12.0%) and decreased the number of UTIs that were missed from 3 cases to none. Compared with empirically treating all children with a leukocyte esterase test result of 1+ or higher, the dipstick model in UTICalc would have reduced the number of treatment delays by 10.6% (95% CI, 0.9%-20.4%). UTICalc estimates the probability of UTI by evaluating the risk factors present in the individual child. As a result, testing and treatment can be tailored, thereby improving outcomes for children with UTI.

From crystalline to amorphous calcium pyrophosphates: A solid state Nuclear Magnetic Resonance perspective.

PubMed

Gras, Pierre; Baker, Annabelle; Combes, Christèle; Rey, Christian; Sarda, Stéphanie; Wright, Adrian J; Smith, Mark E; Hanna, John V; Gervais, Christel; Laurencin, Danielle; Bonhomme, Christian

2016-02-01

Hydrated calcium pyrophosphates (CPP, Ca2P2O7·nH2O) are a fundamental family of materials among osteoarticular pathologic calcifications. In this contribution, a comprehensive multinuclear NMR (Nuclear Magnetic Resonance) study of four crystalline and two amorphous phases of this family is presented. (1)H, (31)P and (43)Ca MAS (Magic Angle Spinning) NMR spectra were recorded, leading to informative fingerprints characterizing each compound. In particular, different (1)H and (43)Ca solid state NMR signatures were observed for the amorphous phases, depending on the synthetic procedure used. The NMR parameters of the crystalline phases were determined using the GIPAW (Gauge Including Projected Augmented Wave) DFT approach, based on first-principles calculations. In some cases, relaxed structures were found to improve the agreement between experimental and calculated values, demonstrating the importance of proton positions and pyrophosphate local geometry in this particular NMR crystallography approach. Such calculations serve as a basis for the future ab initio modeling of the amorphous CPP phases. The general concept of NMR crystallography is applied to the detailed study of calcium pyrophosphates (CPP), whether hydrated or not, and whether crystalline or amorphous. CPP are a fundamental family of materials among osteoarticular pathologic calcifications. Their prevalence increases with age, impacting on 17.5% of the population after the age of 80. They are frequently involved or associated with acute articular arthritis such as pseudogout. Current treatments are mainly directed at relieving the symptoms of joint inflammation but not at inhibiting CPP formation nor at dissolving these crystals. The combination of advanced NMR techniques, modeling and DFT based calculation of NMR parameters allows new original insights in the detailed structural description of this important class of biomaterials. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

The Relationship between Crystalline Lens Power and Refractive Error in Older Chinese Adults: The Shanghai Eye Study

PubMed Central

He, Jiangnan; Lu, Lina; He, Xiangui; Xu, Xian; Du, Xuan; Zhang, Bo; Zhao, Huijuan; Sha, Jida; Zhu, Jianfeng; Zou, Haidong; Xu, Xun

2017-01-01

Purpose To report calculated crystalline lens power and describe the distribution of ocular biometry and its association with refractive error in older Chinese adults. Methods Random clustering sampling was used to identify adults aged 50 years and above in Xuhui and Baoshan districts of Shanghai. Refraction was determined by subjective refraction that achieved the best corrected vision based on monocular measurement. Ocular biometry was measured by IOL Master. The crystalline lens power of right eyes was calculated using modified Bennett-Rabbetts formula. Results We analyzed 6099 normal phakic right eyes. The mean crystalline lens power was 20.34 ± 2.24D (range: 13.40–36.08). Lens power, spherical equivalent, and anterior chamber depth changed linearly with age; however, axial length, corneal power and AL/CR ratio did not vary with age. The overall prevalence of hyperopia, myopia, and high myopia was 48.48% (95% CI: 47.23%–49.74%), 22.82% (95% CI: 21.77%–23.88%), and 4.57% (95% CI: 4.05–5.10), respectively. The prevalence of hyperopia increased linearly with age while lens power decreased with age. In multivariate models, refractive error was strongly correlated with axial length, lens power, corneal power, and anterior chamber depth; refractive error was slightly correlated with best corrected visual acuity, age and sex. Conclusion Lens power, hyperopia, and spherical equivalent changed linearly with age; Moreover, the continuous loss of lens power produced hyperopic shifts in refraction in subjects aged more than 50 years. PMID:28114313

Is the Hierarchy of Loss in Functional Ability Evident in Midlife? Findings from a British Birth Cohort.

PubMed

Wloch, Elizabeth G; Kuh, Diana; Cooper, Rachel

2016-01-01

Difficulties performing a range of physical tasks of daily living have been shown to develop in older populations in a typically observed sequence, known as the hierarchy of loss. Nearly all previous research has been undertaken using populations aged over 75. This study aimed to use cross-sectional and longitudinal data to test for evidence of the hierarchy of loss from midlife onwards. The prevalence of reported difficulty undertaking 16 physical tasks in the MRC National Survey of Health and Development at age 60-64 were calculated, with Mokken scaling used to confirm the hierarchical order. Logistic regression was used to calculate the odds ratios of reporting difficulty performing tasks at the bottom of the hierarchy (i.e. feeding, washing and/or toileting) at age 60-64 by reported difficulty at the top of the hierarchy (i.e. gripping, walking and/or stair climbing) at age 43. At age 60-64, tasks associated with balance, strength and co-ordination, such as climbing stairs, were the first tasks participants reported difficulty with and tasks associated with upper limb mobility, such as feeding yourself, were the last. In a fully-adjusted model, participants who reported difficulty at the top of the hierarchy at age 43 were 2.85 (95% CI: 1.45-5.60) times more likely to report difficulty with tasks at the bottom of the hierarchy at age 60-64. This study presents evidence of the hierarchy of loss in a younger population than previously observed suggesting that targeted interventions to prevent functional decline should not be delayed until old age.

Beyond R 0: Demographic Models for Variability of Lifetime Reproductive Output

PubMed Central

Caswell, Hal

2011-01-01

The net reproductive rate measures the expected lifetime reproductive output of an individual, and plays an important role in demography, ecology, evolution, and epidemiology. Well-established methods exist to calculate it from age- or stage-classified demographic data. As an expectation, provides no information on variability; empirical measurements of lifetime reproduction universally show high levels of variability, and often positive skewness among individuals. This is often interpreted as evidence of heterogeneity, and thus of an opportunity for natural selection. However, variability provides evidence of heterogeneity only if it exceeds the level of variability to be expected in a cohort of identical individuals all experiencing the same vital rates. Such comparisons require a way to calculate the statistics of lifetime reproduction from demographic data. Here, a new approach is presented, using the theory of Markov chains with rewards, obtaining all the moments of the distribution of lifetime reproduction. The approach applies to age- or stage-classified models, to constant, periodic, or stochastic environments, and to any kind of reproductive schedule. As examples, I analyze data from six empirical studies, of a variety of animal and plant taxa (nematodes, polychaetes, humans, and several species of perennial plants). PMID:21738586

[Long-term changes in availability of domestic nursing care based on family structure changes--a model calculation].

PubMed

Dinkel, R H; Hartmann, K; Lebok, U

1997-04-01

A central hypothesis in German family sociology is the observation of a disruption of family structures. If this disintegration prevails up to highest ages it must, among others, lead to an increasing inability to perform nursing care within families. The most important person in case of a need for nursing care is the spouse. The main topic of this paper is to determine whether demographic and familiar developments in Germany will increase or decrease the share of men and women at higher ages with a living spouse within the next decades. In spite of a slowly increasing share of the never-married and the divorced, on the average elderly men and women will be married to a greater and widowed to a much lesser proportion within the next decade. The Dutch LIPRO-model is used to calculate the exact numerical developments. The surprising result is primarily due to the fact that the actual high shares of the widowed are a consequence of distortions caused by the two World Wars. During the next few decades, these unusual developments will disappear even among the most elderly.

A kinematic model to estimate the effective dose of radioactive isotopes in the human body for radiological protection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sasaki, S.; Yamada, T.

2013-12-01

The great earthquake attacked the north-east area in Japan in March 11, 2011. The system of electrical facilities to control Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station was completely destroyed by the following tsunamis. From the damaged reactor containment vessels, an amount of radioactive substances had leaked and been diffused in the vicinity of this station. Radiological internal exposure becomes a serious social issue both in Japan and all over the world. The present study provides an easily understandable, kinematic-based model to estimate the effective dose of radioactive substances in a human body by simplified the complicated mechanism of metabolism. International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) has developed an exact model, which is well-known as a standard method to calculate the effective dose for radiological protection. However, owing to that the above method accord too much with the actual mechanism of metabolism in human bodies, it becomes rather difficult for non-professional people of radiology to gasp the whole images of the movement and the influences of radioactive substances in a human body. Therefore, in the present paper we propose a newly-derived and easily-understandable model to estimate the effective dose. The present method is very similar with the traditional and conventional hydrological tank model. Ingestion flux of radioactive substances corresponds to rain intensity and the storage of radioactive substances to the water storage in a basin in runoff analysis. The key of this method is to estimate the energy radiated from the radioactive nuclear disintegration of an atom by using classical theory of E. Fermi of beta decay and special relativity for various kinds of radioactive atoms. The parameters used in this study are only physical half-time and biological half-time, and there are no intentional and operational parameters of coefficients to adjust our theoretical runoff to observation of ICRP. Figure.1 compares time series of effective cesium-137 dose according to age calculated by ICRP software with calculated by the present method. Plots are calculated values by ICRP, the solid line is analytic solution given from the present method. It should be noted that the present study does not consider complicated mechanism, but it could give equally accurate results comparing to existing research. Time series of effective Cs-137 dose according to age when food contains 1 Bq/year is ingested for 1 year. (Plots are calculated values by ICRP. The solid line is analytic solution given from the present method)

Solar models with helium and heavy-element diffusion

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bahcall, J.N.; Pinsonneault, M.H.; Wasserburg, G.J.

1995-10-01

Helium and heavy-element diffusion are both included in precise calculations of solar models. In addition, improvements in the input data for solar interior models are described for nuclear reaction rates, the solar luminosity, the solar age, heavy-element abundances, radiative opacities, helium and metal diffusion rates, and neutrino interaction cross sections. The effects on the neutrino fluxes of each change in the input physics are evaluated separately by constructing a series of solar models with one additional improvement added at each stage. The effective 1{sigma} uncertainties in the individual input quantities are estimated and used to evaluate the uncertainties in themore » calculated neutrino fluxes and the calculated event rates for solar neutrino experiments. The calculated neutrino event rates, including all of the improvements, are 9.3{sub {minus}1.4}{sup +1.2} SNU for the {sup 37}Cl experiment and 137{sub {minus}7}{sup +8} SNU for the {sup 71}Ga experiments. The calculated flux of {sup 7}Be neutrinos is 5.1(1.00{sub {minus}0.07}{sup +0.06}){times}10{sup 9} cm{sup {minus}2}s{sup {minus}1} and the flux of {sup 8}B neutrinos is 6.6(1.00{sub {minus}0.17}{sup +0.14}){times}10{sup 6} cm{sup {minus}2}s{sup {minus}1}. The primordial helium abundance found for this model is {ital Y}=0.278. The present-day surface abundance of the model is {ital Y}{sub {ital s}}=0.247, in agreement with the helioseismological measurement of {ital Y}{sub {ital s}}=0.242{plus_minus}0.003 determined by Hernandez and Christensen-Dalsgaard (1994). The computed depth of the convective zone is {ital R}=0.712{ital R}{sub {circle_dot}}, in agreement with the observed value determined from {ital p}-mode oscillation data of {ital R}=0.713{plus_minus}0.003{ital R}{sub {circle_dot}} found by Christensen-Dalsgaard {ital et} {ital al}. (1991). (Abstract Truncated)« less

Particle deposition and clearance of atmospheric particles in the human respiratory tract during LACE 98

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bundke, U.; Hänel, G.

2003-04-01

During the LACE 98footnote{Lindenberg Aerosol Characterization Experiment, (Germany) 1998} experiment microphysical, chemical and optical properties of atmospheric particles were measured by several groups. (Bundke et al.). The particle deposition and clearance of the particles in the human respiratory tract was calculated using the ICRP (International Commission on Radiological Protection) deposition and clearance model (ICRP 1994). Particle growth as function of relative humidity outside the body was calculated from measurement data using the model introduced by Bundke et al.. Particle growth inside the body was added using a non-equilibrium particle growth model. As a result of the calculations, time series of the total dry particle mass and -size distribution were obtained for all compartments of the human respiratory tract defined by ICRP 1994. The combined ICRP deposition and clearance model was initialized for different probationers like man, woman, children of different ages and several circumstances like light work, sitting, sleeping etc. Keeping the conditions observed during LACE 98 constant a approximation of the aerosol burdens of the different compartments was calculated up to 4 years of exposure and compared to the results from Snipes et al. for the "Phoenix" and "Philadelphia" aerosol. References: footnotesize{ Bundke, U. et al.,it{Aerosol Optical Properties during the Lindenberg Aerosol Characterization Experiment (LACE 98)} ,10.1029/2000JD000188, JGR, 2002 ICRP,it{Human Respiratory Tract Model for Radiological Protection, Bd. ICRP Publication 66}, Annals of the ICRP, 24,1-3, Elsevier Science, Ocford, 1994 Snipes et al. ,it{The 1994 ICRP66 Human Respiratory Tract Model as a Tool for predicting Lung Burdens from Exposure to Environmental Aerosols}, Appl. Occup. Environ. Hyg., 12, 547-553,1997}

Population-Based Analysis and Projections of Liver Supply Under Redistricting.

PubMed

Parikh, Neehar D; Marrero, Wesley J; Sonnenday, Christopher J; Lok, Anna S; Hutton, David W; Lavieri, Mariel S

2017-09-01

To reduce the geographic heterogeneity in liver transplant allocation, the United Network of Organ Sharing has proposed redistricting, which is impacted by both donor supply and liver transplantation demand. We aimed to determine the impact of demographic changes on the redistricting proposal and characterize causes behind geographic heterogeneity in donor supply. We analyzed adult donors from 2002 to 2014 from the United Network of Organ Sharing database and calculated regional liver donation and utilization stratified by age, race, and body mass index. We used US population data to make regional projections of available donors from 2016 to 2025, incorporating the proposed 8-region redistricting plan. We used donors/100 000 population age 18 to 84 years (D/100K) as a measure of equity. We calculated a coefficient of variation (standard deviation/mean) for each regional model. We performed an exploratory analysis where we used national rates of donation, utilization and both for each regional model. The overall projected D/100K will decrease from 2.53 to 2.49 from 2016 to 2025. The coefficient of variation in 2016 is expected to be 20.3% in the 11-region model and 13.2% in the 8-region model. We found that standardizing regional donation and utilization rates would reduce geographic heterogeneity to 4.9% in the 8-region model and 4.6% in the 11-region model. The 8-region allocation model will reduce geographic variation in donor supply to a significant extent; however, we project that geographic disparity will marginally increase over time. Though challenging, interventions to better standardize donation and utilization rates would be impactful in reducing geographic heterogeneity in organ supply.

Population Pharmacokinetics of Intravenous Paracetamol (Acetaminophen) in Preterm and Term Neonates: Model Development and External Evaluation.

PubMed

Cook, Sarah F; Roberts, Jessica K; Samiee-Zafarghandy, Samira; Stockmann, Chris; King, Amber D; Deutsch, Nina; Williams, Elaine F; Allegaert, Karel; Wilkins, Diana G; Sherwin, Catherine M T; van den Anker, John N

2016-01-01

The aims of this study were to develop a population pharmacokinetic model for intravenous paracetamol in preterm and term neonates and to assess the generalizability of the model by testing its predictive performance in an external dataset. Nonlinear mixed-effects models were constructed from paracetamol concentration-time data in NONMEM 7.2. Potential covariates included body weight, gestational age, postnatal age, postmenstrual age, sex, race, total bilirubin, and estimated glomerular filtration rate. An external dataset was used to test the predictive performance of the model through calculation of bias, precision, and normalized prediction distribution errors. The model-building dataset included 260 observations from 35 neonates with a mean gestational age of 33.6 weeks [standard deviation (SD) 6.6]. Data were well-described by a one-compartment model with first-order elimination. Weight predicted paracetamol clearance and volume of distribution, which were estimated as 0.348 L/h (5.5 % relative standard error; 30.8 % coefficient of variation) and 2.46 L (3.5 % relative standard error; 14.3 % coefficient of variation), respectively, at the mean subject weight of 2.30 kg. An external evaluation was performed on an independent dataset that included 436 observations from 60 neonates with a mean gestational age of 35.6 weeks (SD 4.3). The median prediction error was 10.1 % [95 % confidence interval (CI) 6.1-14.3] and the median absolute prediction error was 25.3 % (95 % CI 23.1-28.1). Weight predicted intravenous paracetamol pharmacokinetics in neonates ranging from extreme preterm to full-term gestational status. External evaluation suggested that these findings should be generalizable to other similar patient populations.

Population Pharmacokinetics of Intravenous Paracetamol (Acetaminophen) in Preterm and Term Neonates: Model Development and External Evaluation

PubMed Central

Cook, Sarah F.; Roberts, Jessica K.; Samiee-Zafarghandy, Samira; Stockmann, Chris; King, Amber D.; Deutsch, Nina; Williams, Elaine F.; Allegaert, Karel; Sherwin, Catherine M. T.; van den Anker, John N.

2017-01-01

Objectives The aims of this study were to develop a population pharmacokinetic model for intravenous paracetamol in preterm and term neonates and to assess the generalizability of the model by testing its predictive performance in an external dataset. Methods Nonlinear mixed-effects models were constructed from paracetamol concentration–time data in NONMEM 7.2. Potential covariates included body weight, gestational age, postnatal age, postmenstrual age, sex, race, total bilirubin, and estimated glomerular filtration rate. An external dataset was used to test the predictive performance of the model through calculation of bias, precision, and normalized prediction distribution errors. Results The model-building dataset included 260 observations from 35 neonates with a mean gestational age of 33.6 weeks [standard deviation (SD) 6.6]. Data were well-described by a one-compartment model with first-order elimination. Weight predicted paracetamol clearance and volume of distribution, which were estimated as 0.348 L/h (5.5 % relative standard error; 30.8 % coefficient of variation) and 2.46 L (3.5 % relative standard error; 14.3 % coefficient of variation), respectively, at the mean subject weight of 2.30 kg. An external evaluation was performed on an independent dataset that included 436 observations from 60 neonates with a mean gestational age of 35.6 weeks (SD 4.3). The median prediction error was 10.1 % [95 % confidence interval (CI) 6.1–14.3] and the median absolute prediction error was 25.3 % (95 % CI 23.1–28.1). Conclusions Weight predicted intravenous paracetamol pharmacokinetics in neonates ranging from extreme preterm to full-term gestational status. External evaluation suggested that these findings should be generalizable to other similar patient populations. PMID:26201306

A paraxial schematic eye model for the growing C57BL/6 mouse.

PubMed

Schmucker, Christine; Schaeffel, Frank

2004-01-01

The mouse eye has potential to become an important model for studies on the genetic control of eye growth and myopia. However, no data are published on the development of its optical properties. We developed a paraxial schematic model of the growing eye for the most common laboratory mouse strain, the C57BL/6 mouse, for the age range between 22 and 100 days. Refractive development was followed with eccentric infrared photorefraction and corneal curvature with infrared photokeratometry. To measure ocular dimensions, freshly excised eyes were immediately frozen after enucleation to minimize distortions. Eyes were cut with a cryostat down to the bisecting horizontal plane, until the optic nerve head became visible. The standard deviations were +/-10 microm for repeated measurements in highly magnified videographs, taken in several section planes close to the equator in the same eyes. To evaluate inter-eye and inter-individual variability, a total of 20 mice (34 eyes) were studied, with 3-4 eyes for each of the 9 sampling ages. Schematic eye models were developed using paraxial ray tracing software (OSLO, LT Lambda Research Corporation, and a self-written program). The measured refractive errors were initially +4.0+/-0.6 D at approximately 30 days, and levelled off with +7.0+/-2.5 D at about 70 days. Corneal radius of curvature did not change with age (1.414+/-0.019 mm). Both axial lens diameter and axial eye length grew linearly (regression equations: lens, 1619 microm +5.5 microm/day, R=0.916; axial length, 2899 microm +4.4 microm/day, R=0.936). The lens grew so fast that vitreous chamber depth declined with age (regression equation: 896 microm -3.2 microm/day, R=0.685). The radii of curvature of the anterior lens surface increased during development (from 0.982 mm at day 22 to 1.208 mm at day 100), whereas the radii of the posterior lens surface remained constant (-1.081+/-0.054 mm). The calculated homogeneous lens index increased linearly with age (from 1.568 to 1.605). The small eye artifact, calculated from the dioptric difference of the positions of the vitreo-retinal interface and the photoreceptor plane, increased from +35.2 to +39.1 D, which was much higher than the hyperopia measured with photorefraction. Retinal image magnification increased from 31 to 34 microm/deg, and the f/number remained < or =1 at all ages, suggesting a bright retinal image. A calculated axial eye elongation of 5.4-6.5 microm was sufficient to make the schematic eye 1 D more myopic. The most striking features of the mouse eye were that linear growth was slow but extended far beyond sexual maturity, that the corneal curvature did not increase, and that the prominent lens growth caused a developmental decline of the vitreous chamber depth.

A technique of experimental and numerical analysis of influence of defects in the intraocular lens on the retinal image quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geniusz, Malwina; ZajÄ c, Marek

2016-09-01

Intraocular lens (IOL) is an artificial lens implanted into the eye in order to restore correct vision after the removal of natural lens cloudy due to cataract. The IOL prolonged stay in the eyeball causes the creation of different changes on the surface and inside the implant mainly in form of small-size local defects such as vacuoles and calcium deposites. Their presence worsens the imaging properties of the eye mainly due to occurence of scattered light thus deteriorating the vision quality of patients after cataract surgery. It is very difficult to study influence the effects of these changes on image quality in real patients. To avoid these difficulties two other possibilities were chosen: the analysis of the image obtained in an optomechanical eye model with artificially aged IOL as well as numerical calculation of the image characteristics while the eye lens is burdened with adequately modeled defects. In experiments the optomechanical model of an eye consisting of a glass "cornea", chamber filled with liquid where the IOL under investigation was inserted and a high resulution CCC detector serving as a "retina" was used. The Modulation Transfer Function (MTF) of such "eye" was evaluated on the basis of image of an edge. Experiments show that there is significant connection between ageing defects and decrease in MTF parameters. Numerical part was performed with a computer programme for optical imaging analysis (OpticStudio Professional, Zemax Professional from Radiant Zemax, LLC). On the basis of Atchison eye model with lens burdened with defects Modulation Transfer Functio was calculated. Particular parameters of defects used in a numerical model were based on own measurements. Numerical simulation also show significant connection between ageing defects and decrease of MTF parameters. With this technique the influence of types, density and distribution of local defect in the IOL on the retinal image quality can be evaluated quickly without the need of performing very difficult and even dangereous experiments on real human patients.

Early-age hydration and volume change of calcium sulfoaluminate cement-based binders

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chaunsali, Piyush

Shrinkage cracking is a predominant deterioration mechanism in structures with high surface-to-volume ratio. One way to allay shrinkage-induced stresses is to use calcium sulfoaluminate (CSA) cement whose early-age expansion in restrained condition induces compressive stress that can be utilized to counter the tensile stresses due to shrinkage. In addition to enhancing the resistance against shrinkage cracking, CSA cement also has lower carbon footprint than that of Portland cement. This dissertation aims at improving the understanding of early-age volume change of CSA cement-based binders. For the first time, interaction between mineral admixtures (Class F fly ash, Class C fly ash, and silica fume) and OPC-CSA binder was studied. Various physico-chemical factors such as the hydration of ye'elimite (main component in CSA cement), amount of ettringite (the main phase responsible for expansion in CSA cement), supersaturation with respect to ettringite in cement pore solution, total pore volume, and material stiffness were monitored to examine early-age expansion characteristics. This research validated the crystallization stress theory by showing the presence of higher supersaturation level of ettringite, and therefore, higher crystallization stress in CSA cement-based binders. Supersaturation with respect to ettringite was found to increase with CSA dosage and external supply of gypsum. Mineral admixtures (MA) altered the expansion characteristics in OPC-CSA-MA binders with fixed CSA cement. This study reports that fly ash (FA) behaves differently depending on its phase composition. The Class C FA-based binder (OPC-CSA-CFA) ceased expanding beyond two days unlike other OPC-CSA-MA binders. Three factors were found to govern expansion of CSA cement-based binders: 1) volume fraction of ettringite in given pore volume, 2) saturation level of ettringite, and 3) dynamic modulus. Various models were utilized to estimate the macroscopic tensile stress in CSA cement-based binders without taking into account the viscoelastic effects. For the first time, model based on poromechanics was used to calculate the macroscopic tensile stress that develops in CSA cement-based binders due to crystallization of ettringite. The models enabled a reasonable prediction of tensile stress due to crystallization of ettringite including the failure of an OPC-CSA binder which had high CSA cement content. Elastic strain based on crystallization stress was calculated and compared with the observed strain. A mismatch between observed and calculated elastic strain indicated the presence of early-age creep. Lastly, the application of CSA cement in concretes is discussed to link the paste and concrete behavior.

Longitudinal predictors of aerobic performance in adolescent soccer players.

PubMed

Valente-dos-Santos, João; Coelho-e-Silva, Manuel J; Duarte, João; Figueiredo, António J; Liparotti, João R; Sherar, Lauren B; Elferink-Gemser, Marije T; Malina, Robert M

2012-01-01

The importance of aerobic performance in youth soccer is well established. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the contributions of chronological age (CA), skeletal age (SA), body size, and training to the longitudinal development of aerobic performance in youth male soccer players aged 10 to 18 years. Players (n=83) were annually followed up during 5 years, resulting in an average of 4.4 observations per player. Decimal CA was calculated, and SA, stature, body weight, and aerobic performance were measured once per year. Fat-free mass (FFM) was estimated from age- and gender-specific anthropometric formulas, and annual volume training was recorded. After testing for multicollinearity, multilevel regression modeling was used to analyze the longitudinal data aligned by CA and SA (Model 1 and 2, respectively) and to develop aerobic performance scores. The following equations provide estimations of the aerobic performance for young soccer players: ŷ(Model 1 [deviance from the null model =388.50; P<0.01]) =57.75+9.06×centered CA-0.57×centered CA(2)+0.03×annual volume training and ŷ(Model 2 [deviance from the null model=327.98; P<0.01])=13.03+4.04×centered SA-0.12×centered SA(2)+0.99×FFM+0.03×annual volume training. The development of aerobic performance in young soccer players was found to be significantly related to CA, biological development, and volume of training.

Effect of age on the performance of bispectral and entropy indices during sevoflurane pediatric anesthesia: a pharmacometric study.

PubMed

Sciusco, Alberto; Standing, Joseph F; Sheng, Yucheng; Raimondo, Pasquale; Cinnella, Gilda; Dambrosio, Michele

2017-04-01

Bispectral index (BIS) and entropy monitors have been proposed for use in children, but research has not supported their validity for infants. However, effective monitoring of young children may be even more important than for adults, to aid appropriate anesthetic dosing and reduce the chance of adverse consequences. This prospective study aimed to investigate the relationships between age and the predictive performance of BIS and entropy monitors in measuring the anesthetic drug effects within a pediatric surgery setting. We concurrently recorded BIS and entropy (SE/RE) in 48 children aged 1 month-12 years, undergoing general anesthesia with sevoflurane and fentanyl. Nonlinear mixed effects modeling was used to characterize the concentration-response relationship independently between the three monitor indicators with sevoflurane. The model's goodness-of-fit was assessed by prediction-corrected visual predictive checks. Model fit with age was evaluated using absolute conditional individual weighted residuals (|CIWRES|). The ability of BIS and entropy monitors to describe the effect of anesthesia was compared with prediction probabilities (P K ) in different age groups. Intraoperative and awakening values were compared in the age groups. The correlation between BIS and entropy was also calculated. |CIWRES| vs age showed an increasing trend in the model's accuracy for all three indicators. P K probabilities were similar for all three indicators within each age group, though lower in infants. The linear correlations between BIS and entropy in different age groups were lower for infants. Infants also tended to have lower values during surgery and at awakening than older children, while toddlers had higher values. Performance of both monitors improves as age increases. Our results suggest a need for the development of new monitor algorithms or calibration to better account for the age-specific EEG dynamics of younger patients. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Using remotely-sensed multispectral imagery to build age models for alluvial fan surfaces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Arcy, Mitch; Mason, Philippa J.; Roda Boluda, Duna C.; Whittaker, Alexander C.; Lewis, James

2016-04-01

Accurate exposure age models are essential for much geomorphological field research, and generally depend on laboratory analyses such as radiocarbon, cosmogenic nuclide, or luminescence techniques. These approaches continue to revolutionise geomorphology, however they cannot be deployed remotely or in situ in the field. Therefore other methods are still needed for producing preliminary age models, performing relative dating of surfaces, or selecting sampling sites for the laboratory analyses above. With the widespread availability of detailed multispectral imagery, a promising approach is to use remotely-sensed data to discriminate surfaces with different ages. Here, we use new Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) multispectral imagery to characterise the reflectance of 35 alluvial fan surfaces in the semi-arid Owens Valley, California. Alluvial fans are useful landforms to date, as they are widely used to study the effects of tectonics, climate and sediment transport processes on source-to-sink sedimentation. Our target fan surfaces have all been mapped in detail in the field, and have well-constrained exposure ages ranging from modern to ~ 125 ka measured using a high density of 10Be cosmogenic nuclide samples. Despite all having similar granitic compositions, the spectral properties of these surfaces vary systematically with their exposure ages. Older surfaces demonstrate a predictable shift in reflectance across the visible and short-wave infrared spectrum. Simple calculations, such as the brightness ratios of different wavelengths, generate sensitive power law relationships with exposure age that depend on post-depositional alteration processes affecting these surfaces. We investigate what these processes might be in this dryland location, and evaluate the potential for using remotely-sensed multispectral imagery for developing surface age models. The ability to remotely sense relative exposure ages has useful implications for preliminary mapping, selecting sampling sites for laboratory-based exposure age techniques, and correlating existing age constraints to un-sampled surfaces.

Early Math Trajectories: Low-Income Children's Mathematics Knowledge From Ages 4 to 11.

PubMed

Rittle-Johnson, Bethany; Fyfe, Emily R; Hofer, Kerry G; Farran, Dale C

2017-09-01

Early mathematics knowledge is a strong predictor of later academic achievement, but children from low-income families enter school with weak mathematics knowledge. An early math trajectories model is proposed and evaluated within a longitudinal study of 517 low-income American children from ages 4 to 11. This model includes a broad range of math topics, as well as potential pathways from preschool to middle grades mathematics achievement. In preschool, nonsymbolic quantity, counting, and patterning knowledge predicted fifth-grade mathematics achievement. By the end of first grade, symbolic mapping, calculation, and patterning knowledge were the important predictors. Furthermore, the first-grade predictors mediated the relation between preschool math knowledge and fifth-grade mathematics achievement. Findings support the early math trajectories model among low-income children. © 2016 The Authors. Child Development © 2016 Society for Research in Child Development, Inc.

Obtaining appropriate interval estimates for age when multiple indicators are used: evaluation of an ad-hoc procedure.

PubMed

Fieuws, Steffen; Willems, Guy; Larsen-Tangmose, Sara; Lynnerup, Niels; Boldsen, Jesper; Thevissen, Patrick

2016-03-01

When an estimate of age is needed, typically multiple indicators are present as found in skeletal or dental information. There exists a vast literature on approaches to estimate age from such multivariate data. Application of Bayes' rule has been proposed to overcome drawbacks of classical regression models but becomes less trivial as soon as the number of indicators increases. Each of the age indicators can lead to a different point estimate ("the most plausible value for age") and a prediction interval ("the range of possible values"). The major challenge in the combination of multiple indicators is not the calculation of a combined point estimate for age but the construction of an appropriate prediction interval. Ignoring the correlation between the age indicators results in intervals being too small. Boldsen et al. (2002) presented an ad-hoc procedure to construct an approximate confidence interval without the need to model the multivariate correlation structure between the indicators. The aim of the present paper is to bring under attention this pragmatic approach and to evaluate its performance in a practical setting. This is all the more needed since recent publications ignore the need for interval estimation. To illustrate and evaluate the method, Köhler et al. (1995) third molar scores are used to estimate the age in a dataset of 3200 male subjects in the juvenile age range.

Variation of the radiative properties during black carbon aging: theoretical and experimental intercomparison

DOE PAGES

He, C.; Liou, K.-N.; Takano, Y.; ...

2015-10-28

A theoretical black carbon (BC) aging model is developed to account for three typical evolution stages, namely, freshly emitted aggregates, BC coated by soluble material, and BC particles undergoing further hygroscopic growth. The geometric-optics surface-wave (GOS) approach is employed to compute the BC single-scattering properties at each aging stage, which are subsequently compared with laboratory measurements. Theoretical calculations are consistent with measurements in extinction and absorption cross sections for fresh BC aggregates with different BC sizes (i.e., mobility diameters of 155, 245, and 320 nm), with differences of ≤ 25 %. The measured optical cross sections for BC coated bymore » sulfuric acid and for that undergoing further hygroscopic growth are generally captured (differences < 30 %) by theoretical calculations using a concentric core-shell structure, with an overestimate in extinction and absorption of the smallest BC size and an underestimate in scattering of the largest BC size. We find that the absorption and scattering cross sections of fresh BC aggregates vary by 20–40 and 50–65 %, respectively, due to the use of upper (1.95–0.79 i) and lower (1.75–0.63 i) bounds of BC refractive index, while the variations are < 20 % in absorption and < 50 % in scattering in the case of coated BC particles. Sensitivity analyses of the BC morphology show that the optical properties of fresh BC aggregates are more sensitive to fractal dimension than primary spherule size. The absorption and scattering cross sections of coated BC particles vary by more than a factor of 2 due to different coating structures. We find an increase of 20–250 % in absorption and a factor of 3–15 in scattering during aging, significantly depending on coating morphology and aging stages. This study suggests that an accurate estimate of BC radiative effects requires the incorporation of a dynamic BC aging process that accounts for realistic coating structures in climate models.« less

Variation of the radiative properties during black carbon aging: theoretical and experimental intercomparison

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

He, C.; Liou, K.-N.; Takano, Y.

A theoretical black carbon (BC) aging model is developed to account for three typical evolution stages, namely, freshly emitted aggregates, BC coated by soluble material, and BC particles undergoing further hygroscopic growth. The geometric-optics surface-wave (GOS) approach is employed to compute the BC single-scattering properties at each aging stage, which are subsequently compared with laboratory measurements. Theoretical calculations are consistent with measurements in extinction and absorption cross sections for fresh BC aggregates with different BC sizes (i.e., mobility diameters of 155, 245, and 320 nm), with differences of ≤ 25 %. The measured optical cross sections for BC coated bymore » sulfuric acid and for that undergoing further hygroscopic growth are generally captured (differences < 30 %) by theoretical calculations using a concentric core-shell structure, with an overestimate in extinction and absorption of the smallest BC size and an underestimate in scattering of the largest BC size. We find that the absorption and scattering cross sections of fresh BC aggregates vary by 20–40 and 50–65 %, respectively, due to the use of upper (1.95–0.79 i) and lower (1.75–0.63 i) bounds of BC refractive index, while the variations are < 20 % in absorption and < 50 % in scattering in the case of coated BC particles. Sensitivity analyses of the BC morphology show that the optical properties of fresh BC aggregates are more sensitive to fractal dimension than primary spherule size. The absorption and scattering cross sections of coated BC particles vary by more than a factor of 2 due to different coating structures. We find an increase of 20–250 % in absorption and a factor of 3–15 in scattering during aging, significantly depending on coating morphology and aging stages. This study suggests that an accurate estimate of BC radiative effects requires the incorporation of a dynamic BC aging process that accounts for realistic coating structures in climate models.« less

A system for 3D representation of burns and calculation of burnt skin area.

PubMed

Prieto, María Felicidad; Acha, Begoña; Gómez-Cía, Tomás; Fondón, Irene; Serrano, Carmen

2011-11-01

In this paper a computer-based system for burnt surface area estimation (BAI), is presented. First, a 3D model of a patient, adapted to age, weight, gender and constitution is created. On this 3D model, physicians represent both burns as well as burn depth allowing the burnt surface area to be automatically calculated by the system. Each patient models as well as photographs and burn area estimation can be stored. Therefore, these data can be included in the patient's clinical records for further review. Validation of this system was performed. In a first experiment, artificial known sized paper patches were attached to different parts of the body in 37 volunteers. A panel of 5 experts diagnosed the extent of the patches using the Rule of Nines. Besides, our system estimated the area of the "artificial burn". In order to validate the null hypothesis, Student's t-test was applied to collected data. In addition, intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) was calculated and a value of 0.9918 was obtained, demonstrating that the reliability of the program in calculating the area is of 99%. In a second experiment, the burnt skin areas of 80 patients were calculated using BAI system and the Rule of Nines. A comparison between these two measuring methods was performed via t-Student test and ICC. The hypothesis of null difference between both measures is only true for deep dermal burns and the ICC is significantly different, indicating that the area estimation calculated by applying classical techniques can result in a wrong diagnose of the burnt surface. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd and ISBI. All rights reserved.

Factor structure and psychometric properties of the trier inventory for chronic stress (TICS) in a representative german sample

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Chronic stress results from an imbalance of personal traits, resources and the demands placed upon an individual by social and occupational situations. This chronic stress can be measured using the Trier Inventory for Chronic Stress (TICS). Aims of the present study are to test the factorial structure of the TICS, report its psychometric properties, and evaluate the influence of gender and age on chronic stress. Methods The TICS was answered by N = 2,339 healthy participants aged 14 to 99. The sample was selected by random-route sampling. Exploratory factor analyses with Oblimin-rotated Principal Axis extraction were calculated. Confirmatory factor analyses applying Robust Maximum Likelihood estimations (MLM) tested model fit and configural invariance as well as the measurement invariance for gender and age. Reliability estimations and effect sizes are reported. Results In the exploratory factor analyses, both a two-factor and a nine-factor model emerged. Confirmatory factor analyses resulted in acceptable model fit (RMSEA), with model comparison fit statistics corroborating the superiority of the nine-factor model. Most factors were moderately to highly intercorrelated. Reliabilities were good to very good. Measurement invariance tests gave evidence for differential effects of gender and age on the factor structure. Furthermore, women and younger individuals, especially those aged 35 to 44, tended to report more chronic stress than men and older individuals. Conclusions The proposed nine-factor structure could be factorially validated, results in good scale reliability, and heuristically can be grouped by two higher-order factors: "High Demands" and "Lack of Satisfaction". Age and gender represent differentiable and meaningful contributors to the perception of chronic stress. PMID:22463771

Age- and Sex-Specific Reference Values for Media/Lumen Ratio in Small Arteries and Relationship With Risk Factors.

PubMed

Bruno, Rosa Maria; Grassi, Guido; Seravalle, Gino; Savoia, Carmine; Rizzoni, Damiano; Virdis, Agostino

2018-04-23

Small-artery remodeling is an early feature of target organ damage in hypertension and retains a negative prognostic value. The aim of the study is to establish age- and sex-specific reference values for media/lumen in small arteries obtained in humans by biopsy. Data from 91 healthy individuals and 200 individuals with cardiovascular risk factors in primary prevention from 4 Italian centers were pooled. Sex-specific equations for media/lumen in the healthy subpopulation, with age as dependent variable, were calculated. These equations were used to calculate predicted media/lumen values in individuals with risk factors and Z scores. The association between classical risk factors and Z scores was then explored by multiple regression analysis. A second-degree polynomial equation model was chosen to obtain sex-specific equations for media/lumen, with age as dependent variable. In the population with risk factors (111 men, age 50.5±14.0 years, hypertension 80.5%), media/lumen Z scores were independently associated with body mass index (standardized β=0.293, P =0.0001), total cholesterol (β=0.191, P =0.031), current smoking (β=0.238, P =0.0005), fasting blood glucose (β=0.204, P =0.003), systolic blood pressure (β=0.233, P =0.023), and female sex (β=0.799, P =0.038). A significant interaction between female sex and total cholesterol was found (β=-0.979, P =0.014). Results were substantially similar in the hypertensive subgroup. A method to calculate individual values of remodeling and growth index based on reference values was also presented. Age- and sex-specific percentiles of media/lumen in a healthy population were estimated. In a predominantly hypertensive population, media/lumen Z scores were associated with major cardiovascular risk factors, including body mass index, cholesterol, smoking, glucose, and systolic blood pressure. Significant sex differences were observed. © 2018 American Heart Association, Inc.

Revisiting dark energy models using differential ages of galaxies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rani, Nisha; Mahajan, Shobhit; Mukherjee, Amitabha

In this work, we use a test based on the differential ages of galaxies for distinguishing the dark energy models. As proposed by Jimenez and Loeb in [1], relative ages of galaxies can be used to put constraints on various cosmological parameters. In the same vein, we reconstruct H {sub 0} {sub dt} / dz and its derivative ( H {sub 0} {sub d} {sup 2} {sup t} / dz {sup 2}) using a model independent technique called non-parametric smoothing . Basically, dt / dz is the change in the age of the object as a function of redshift whichmore » is directly linked with the Hubble parameter. Hence for reconstruction of this quantity, we use the most recent H ( z ) data. Further, we calculate H {sub 0} {sub dt} / dz and its derivative for several models like Phantom, Einstein de Sitter (EdS), ΛCDM, Chevallier-Polarski-Linder (CPL) parametrization, Jassal-Bagla-Padmanabhan (JBP) parametrization and Feng-Shen-Li-Li (FSLL) parametrization. We check the consistency of these models with the results of reconstruction obtained in a model independent way from the data. It is observed that H {sub 0} {sub dt} / dz as a tool is not able to distinguish between the ΛCDM, CPL, JBP and FSLL parametrizations but, as expected, EdS and Phantom models show noticeable deviation from the reconstructed results. Further, the derivative of H {sub 0} {sub dt} / dz for various dark energy models is more sensitive at low redshift. It is found that the FSLL model is not consistent with the reconstructed results, however, the ΛCDM model is in concordance with the 3σ region of the reconstruction at redshift z ≥ 0.3.« less

A review of lunar chronology revealing a preponderance of 4.34-4.37 Ga ages

DOE PAGES

Borg, Lars E.; Gaffney, Amy M.; Shearer, Charles K.

2014-11-24

In this study, data obtained from Sm-Nd and Rb-Sr isotopic measurements of lunar highlands’ samples are renormalized to common standard values and then used to define ages with a common isochron regression algorithm. The reliability of these ages is evaluated using five criteria that include whether: (1) the ages are defined by multiple isotopic systems, (2) the data demonstrate limited scatter outside uncertainty, (3) initial isotopic compositions are consistent with the petrogenesis of the samples, (4) the ages are defined by an isotopic system that is resistant to disturbance by impact metamorphism, and (5) the rare-earth element abundances determined bymore » isotope dilution of bulk of mineral fractions match those measured by in situ analyses. From this analysis, it is apparent that the oldest highlands’ rock ages are some of the least reliable, and that there is little support for crustal ages older than ~4.40 Ga. A model age for ur-KREEP formation calculated using the most reliable Mg-suite Sm-Nd isotopic systematics, in conjunction with Sm-Nd analyses of KREEP basalts, is 4389 ± 45 Ma. This age is a good match to the Lu-Hf model age of 4353 ± 37 Ma determined using a subset of this sample suite, the average model age of 4353 ± 25 Ma determined on mare basalts with the 146Sm- 142Nd isotopic system, with a peak in Pb-Pb ages observed in lunar zircons of ~4340 ± 20 Ma, and the oldest terrestrial zircon age of 4374 ± 6 Ma. The preponderance of ages between 4.34 and 4.37 Ga reflect either primordial solidification of a lunar magma ocean or a widespread secondary magmatic event on the lunar nearside. The first scenario is not consistent with the oldest ages reported for lunar zircons, whereas the second scenario does not account for concordance between ages of crustal rocks and mantle reservoirs.« less

Girl-child marriage and its association with morbidity and mortality of children under 5 years of age in a nationally-representative sample of Pakistan.

PubMed

Nasrullah, Muazzam; Zakar, Rubeena; Zakar, Muhammad Zakria; Krämer, Alexander

2014-03-01

To determine the relationship between child marriage (before age 18 years) and morbidity and mortality of children under 5 years of age in Pakistan beyond those attributed to social vulnerabilities. Nationally-representative cross-sectional observational survey data from Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey, 2006-2007 was limited to children from the past 5 years, reported by ever-married women aged 15-24 years (n = 2630 births of n = 2138 mothers) to identify differences in infectious diseases in past 2 weeks (diarrhea, acute respiratory infection [ARI], ARI with fever), under 5 years of age and infant mortality, and low birth weight by early (<18) vs adult (≥ 18) age at marriage. Associations between child marriage and mortality and morbidity of children under 5 years of age were assessed by calculating adjusted OR using logistic regression models after controlling for maternal and child demographics. Majority (74.5%) of births were from mothers aged <18 years. Marriage before age 18 years increased the likelihood of recent diarrhea among children born to young mothers (adjusted OR = 1.59; 95% CI: 1.18-2.14). Even though maternal child marriage was associated with infant mortality and mortality of children under 5 years of age in unadjusted models, association was lost in the adjusted models. We did not find a relation between girl-child marriage and low birth weight infants, and ARI. Girl-child marriage increases the likelihood of recent diarrhea among children born to young mothers. Further qualitative and prospective quantitative studies are needed to understand the factors that may drive child morbidity and mortality among those married as children vs adults in Pakistan. Copyright © 2014 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Cscibox: A Software System for Age-Model Construction and Evaluation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bradley, E.; Anderson, K. A.; Marchitto, T. M., Jr.; de Vesine, L. R.; White, J. W. C.; Anderson, D. M.

2014-12-01

CSciBox is an integrated software system for the construction and evaluation of age models of paleo-environmetal archives, both directly dated and cross dated. The time has come to encourage cross-pollinization between earth science and computer science in dating paleorecords. This project addresses that need. The CSciBox code, which is being developed by a team of computer scientists and geoscientists, is open source and freely available on github. The system employs modern database technology to store paleoclimate proxy data and analysis results in an easily accessible and searchable form. This makes it possible to do analysis on the whole core at once, in an interactive fashion, or to tailor the analysis to a subset of the core without loading the entire data file. CSciBox provides a number of 'components' that perform the common steps in age-model construction and evaluation: calibrations, reservoir-age correction, interpolations, statistics, and so on. The user employs these components via a graphical user interface (GUI) to go from raw data to finished age model in a single tool: e.g., an IntCal09 calibration of 14C data from a marine sediment core, followed by a piecewise-linear interpolation. CSciBox's GUI supports plotting of any measurement in the core against any other measurement, or against any of the variables in the calculation of the age model-with or without explicit error representations. Using the GUI, CSciBox's user can import a new calibration curve or other background data set and define a new module that employs that information. Users can also incorporate other software (e.g., Calib, BACON) as 'plug ins.' In the case of truly large data or significant computational effort, CSciBox is parallelizable across modern multicore processors, or clusters, or even the cloud. The next generation of the CSciBox code, currently in the testing stages, includes an automated reasoning engine that supports a more-thorough exploration of plausible age models and cross-dating scenarios.

Cost-effectiveness of serotesting compared with universal immunization for varicella in refugee children from six geographic regions.

PubMed

Figueira, Marisol; Christiansen, Demian; Barnett, Elizabeth D

2003-01-01

It is unknown whether it is more cost-effective to test for varicella antibody or to immunize without testing in immigrant populations. The reliability of history of varicella disease is also unclear. The prevalences of varicella antibody in immigrant children from six regions of the world were used in a cost-effectiveness model to calculate the antibody prevalence above which it is more cost-effective to test rather than to immunize. History of varicella disease was obtained from chart review. We calculated the positive and negative predictive values of varicella history by age group and region. The prevalence of varicella antibody above which it is more cost-effective to test than to immunize was 34% for children less than 13 years old and 17% for those aged 13 years and older. Overall, the positive predictive value of varicella history was 93-100% and the negative predictive value of varicella history was 28-66% among the six geographic regions. Immunization without serotesting was cost-effective in children <5 years of age. Testing prior to immunization was cost-effective in children 5 years of age and older. History of varicella was a good predictor of the presence of antibody to varicella, whereas a negative history was a poor predictor of the absence of antibody to varicella.

Constraints on braneworld gravity models from a kinematic limit on the age of the black hole XTE J1118+480.

PubMed

Psaltis, Dimitrios

2007-05-04

In braneworld gravity models with a finite anti-de Sitter space (AdS) curvature in the extra dimension, the AdS/conformal field theory correspondence leads to a prediction for the lifetime of astrophysical black holes that is significantly smaller than the Hubble time, for asymptotic curvatures that are consistent with current experiments. Using the recent measurements of the position, three-dimensional spatial velocity, and mass of the black hole XTE J1118+480, I calculate a lower limit on its kinematic age of > or =11 Myr (95% confidence). This translates into an upper limit for the asymptotic AdS curvature in the extra dimensions of <0.08 mm, which significantly improves the limit obtained by table top experiments of sub mm gravity.

The U/Th production ratio and the age of the Milky Way from meteorites and Galactic halo stars.

PubMed

Dauphas, Nicolas

2005-06-30

Some heavy elements (with atomic number A > 69) are produced by the 'rapid' (r)-process of nucleosynthesis, where lighter elements are bombarded with a massive flux of neutrons. Although this is characteristic of supernovae and neutron star mergers, uncertainties in where the r-process occurs persist because stellar models are too crude to allow precise quantification of this phenomenon. As a result, there are many uncertainties and assumptions in the models used to calculate the production ratios of actinides (like uranium-238 and thorium-232). Current estimates of the U/Th production ratio range from approximately 0.4 to 0.7. Here I show that the U/Th abundance ratio in meteorites can be used, in conjunction with observations of low-metallicity stars in the halo of the Milky Way, to determine the U/Th production ratio very precisely (0.57(+0.037)(-0.031). This value can be used in future studies to constrain the possible nuclear mass formulae used in r-process calculations, to help determine the source of Galactic cosmic rays, and to date circumstellar grains. I also estimate the age of the Milky Way (14.5(+2.8)(-2.2)Gyr in a way that is independent of the uncertainties associated with fluctuations in the microwave background or models of stellar evolution.

Phobic Anxiety and Plasma Levels of Global Oxidative Stress in Women.

PubMed

Hagan, Kaitlin A; Wu, Tianying; Rimm, Eric B; Eliassen, A Heather; Okereke, Olivia I

2015-01-01

Psychological distress has been hypothesized to be associated with adverse biologic states such as higher oxidative stress and inflammation. Yet, little is known about associations between a common form of distress - phobic anxiety - and global oxidative stress. Thus, we related phobic anxiety to plasma fluorescent oxidation products (FlOPs), a global oxidative stress marker. We conducted a cross-sectional analysis among 1,325 women (aged 43-70 years) from the Nurses' Health Study. Phobic anxiety was measured using the Crown-Crisp Index (CCI). Adjusted least-squares mean log-transformed FlOPs were calculated across phobic categories. Logistic regression models were used to calculate odds ratios (OR) comparing the highest CCI category (≥6 points) vs. lower scores, across FlOPs quartiles. No association was found between phobic anxiety categories and mean FlOP levels in multivariable adjusted linear models. Similarly, in multivariable logistic regression models there were no associations between FlOPs quartiles and likelihood of being in the highest phobic category. Comparing women in the highest vs. lowest FlOPs quartiles: FlOP_360: OR=0.68 (95% CI: 0.40-1.15); FlOP_320: OR=0.99 (95% CI: 0.61-1.61); FlOP_400: OR=0.92 (95% CI: 0.52, 1.63). No cross-sectional association was found between phobic anxiety and a plasma measure of global oxidative stress in this sample of middle-aged and older women.

Comparison of ground-water flow model particle-tracking results and isotopic data in the Mojave River ground-water basin, southern California, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Izbicki, John A.; Stamos, Christina L.; Nishikawa, Tracy; Martin, Peter

2004-01-01

Flow-path and time-of-travel results for the Mojave River ground-water basin, southern California, calculated using the ground-water flow model MODFLOW and particle-tracking model MODPATH were similar to flow path and time-of-travel interpretations derived from delta-deuterium and carbon-14 data. Model and isotopic data both show short flow paths and young ground-water ages throughout the floodplain aquifer along most the Mojave River. Longer flow paths and older ground-water ages as great as 10,000 years before present were measured and simulated in the floodplain aquifer near the Mojave Valley. Model and isotopic data also show movement of water between the floodplain and regional aquifer and subsequent discharge of water from the river to dry lakes in some areas. It was not possible to simulate the isotopic composition of ground-water in the regional aquifer away from the front of the San Gabriel and San Bernardino Mountains - because recharge in these areas does not occur under the present-day climatic conditions used for calibration of the model.

Reactor Pressure Vessel Integrity Assessments with the Grizzly Aging Simulation Code

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Spencer, Benjamin; Backman, Marie; Hoffman, William

Grizzly is a simulation tool being developed at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) as part of the US Department of Energy’s Light Water Reactor Sustainability program to provide improved safety assessments of systems, components, and structures in nuclear power plants subjected to age-related degradation. Its goal is to provide an improved scientific basis for decisions surrounding license renewal, which would permit operation of commercial nuclear power plants beyond 60 years. Grizzly is based on INL’s MOOSE framework, which enables multiphysics simulations in a parallel computing environment. It will address a wide variety of aging issues in nuclear power plant systems, components,more » and structures, modelling both the aging processes and the ability of age-degraded components to perform safely. The reactor pressure vessel (RPV) was chosen as the initial application for Grizzly. Grizzly solves tightly coupled equations of heat conduction and solid mechanics to simulate the global response of the RPV to accident conditions, and uses submodels to represent regions with pre-existing flaws. Domain integrals are used to calculate stress intensity factors on those flaws. A physically based empirical model is used to evaluate material embrittlement, and is used to evaluate whether crack growth would occur. Grizzly can represent the RPV in 2D or 3D, allowing it to evaluate effects that require higher dimensionality models to capture. Work is underway to use lower length scale models of material evolution to inform engineering models of embrittlement. This paper demonstrates an application of Grizzly to RPV failure assessment, and summarizes on-going work.« less

The increase of the functional entropy of the human brain with age.

PubMed

Yao, Y; Lu, W L; Xu, B; Li, C B; Lin, C P; Waxman, D; Feng, J F

2013-10-09

We use entropy to characterize intrinsic ageing properties of the human brain. Analysis of fMRI data from a large dataset of individuals, using resting state BOLD signals, demonstrated that a functional entropy associated with brain activity increases with age. During an average lifespan, the entropy, which was calculated from a population of individuals, increased by approximately 0.1 bits, due to correlations in BOLD activity becoming more widely distributed. We attribute this to the number of excitatory neurons and the excitatory conductance decreasing with age. Incorporating these properties into a computational model leads to quantitatively similar results to the fMRI data. Our dataset involved males and females and we found significant differences between them. The entropy of males at birth was lower than that of females. However, the entropies of the two sexes increase at different rates, and intersect at approximately 50 years; after this age, males have a larger entropy.

The Increase of the Functional Entropy of the Human Brain with Age

PubMed Central

Yao, Y.; Lu, W. L.; Xu, B.; Li, C. B.; Lin, C. P.; Waxman, D.; Feng, J. F.

2013-01-01

We use entropy to characterize intrinsic ageing properties of the human brain. Analysis of fMRI data from a large dataset of individuals, using resting state BOLD signals, demonstrated that a functional entropy associated with brain activity increases with age. During an average lifespan, the entropy, which was calculated from a population of individuals, increased by approximately 0.1 bits, due to correlations in BOLD activity becoming more widely distributed. We attribute this to the number of excitatory neurons and the excitatory conductance decreasing with age. Incorporating these properties into a computational model leads to quantitatively similar results to the fMRI data. Our dataset involved males and females and we found significant differences between them. The entropy of males at birth was lower than that of females. However, the entropies of the two sexes increase at different rates, and intersect at approximately 50 years; after this age, males have a larger entropy. PMID:24103922

Accelerated Health Declines among African Americans in the USA.

PubMed

Thorpe, Roland J; Fesahazion, Ruth G; Parker, Lauren; Wilder, Tanganiyka; Rooks, Ronica N; Bowie, Janice V; Bell, Caryn N; Szanton, Sarah L; LaVeist, Thomas A

2016-10-01

The weathering hypothesis, an explanation for race disparities in the USA, asserts that the health of African Americans begin to deteriorate prematurely compared to whites as a consequence of long-term exposure to social and environmental risk factors. Using data from 2000-2009 National Health Interview Surveys (NHIS), we sought to describe differences in age-related health outcomes in 619,130 African Americans and whites. Outcome measures included hypertension, diabetes, stroke, and cardiovascular disease. Using a mixed models approach to age-period-cohort analysis, we calculated age- and race-specific prevalence rates that accounted for the complex sampling design of NHIS. African Americans exhibited higher prevalence rates of hypertension, diabetes, and stroke than whites across all age groups. Consistent with the weathering hypothesis, African Americans exhibited equivalent prevalence rates for these three conditions 10 years earlier than whites. This suggests that African Americans are acquiring age-related conditions prematurely compared to whites.

Explicitly modelled deep-time tidal dissipation and its implication for Lunar history

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Green, J. A. M.; Huber, M.; Waltham, D.; Buzan, J.; Wells, M.

2017-03-01

Dissipation of tidal energy causes the Moon to recede from the Earth. The currently measured rate of recession implies that the age of the Lunar orbit is 1500 My old, but the Moon is known to be 4500 My old. Consequently, it has been proposed that tidal energy dissipation was weaker in the Earth's past, but explicit numerical calculations are missing for such long time intervals. Here, for the first time, numerical tidal model simulations linked to climate model output are conducted for a range of paleogeographic configurations over the last 252 My. We find that the present is a poor guide to the past in terms of tidal dissipation: the total dissipation rates for most of the past 252 My were far below present levels. This allows us to quantify the reduced tidal dissipation rates over the most resent fraction of lunar history, and the lower dissipation allows refinement of orbitally-derived age models by inserting a complete additional precession cycle.

Predicting age groups of Twitter users based on language and metadata features

PubMed Central

Morgan-Lopez, Antonio A.; Chew, Robert F.; Ruddle, Paul

2017-01-01

Health organizations are increasingly using social media, such as Twitter, to disseminate health messages to target audiences. Determining the extent to which the target audience (e.g., age groups) was reached is critical to evaluating the impact of social media education campaigns. The main objective of this study was to examine the separate and joint predictive validity of linguistic and metadata features in predicting the age of Twitter users. We created a labeled dataset of Twitter users across different age groups (youth, young adults, adults) by collecting publicly available birthday announcement tweets using the Twitter Search application programming interface. We manually reviewed results and, for each age-labeled handle, collected the 200 most recent publicly available tweets and user handles’ metadata. The labeled data were split into training and test datasets. We created separate models to examine the predictive validity of language features only, metadata features only, language and metadata features, and words/phrases from another age-validated dataset. We estimated accuracy, precision, recall, and F1 metrics for each model. An L1-regularized logistic regression model was conducted for each age group, and predicted probabilities between the training and test sets were compared for each age group. Cohen’s d effect sizes were calculated to examine the relative importance of significant features. Models containing both Tweet language features and metadata features performed the best (74% precision, 74% recall, 74% F1) while the model containing only Twitter metadata features were least accurate (58% precision, 60% recall, and 57% F1 score). Top predictive features included use of terms such as “school” for youth and “college” for young adults. Overall, it was more challenging to predict older adults accurately. These results suggest that examining linguistic and Twitter metadata features to predict youth and young adult Twitter users may be helpful for informing public health surveillance and evaluation research. PMID:28850620

Predicting age groups of Twitter users based on language and metadata features.

PubMed

Morgan-Lopez, Antonio A; Kim, Annice E; Chew, Robert F; Ruddle, Paul

2017-01-01

Health organizations are increasingly using social media, such as Twitter, to disseminate health messages to target audiences. Determining the extent to which the target audience (e.g., age groups) was reached is critical to evaluating the impact of social media education campaigns. The main objective of this study was to examine the separate and joint predictive validity of linguistic and metadata features in predicting the age of Twitter users. We created a labeled dataset of Twitter users across different age groups (youth, young adults, adults) by collecting publicly available birthday announcement tweets using the Twitter Search application programming interface. We manually reviewed results and, for each age-labeled handle, collected the 200 most recent publicly available tweets and user handles' metadata. The labeled data were split into training and test datasets. We created separate models to examine the predictive validity of language features only, metadata features only, language and metadata features, and words/phrases from another age-validated dataset. We estimated accuracy, precision, recall, and F1 metrics for each model. An L1-regularized logistic regression model was conducted for each age group, and predicted probabilities between the training and test sets were compared for each age group. Cohen's d effect sizes were calculated to examine the relative importance of significant features. Models containing both Tweet language features and metadata features performed the best (74% precision, 74% recall, 74% F1) while the model containing only Twitter metadata features were least accurate (58% precision, 60% recall, and 57% F1 score). Top predictive features included use of terms such as "school" for youth and "college" for young adults. Overall, it was more challenging to predict older adults accurately. These results suggest that examining linguistic and Twitter metadata features to predict youth and young adult Twitter users may be helpful for informing public health surveillance and evaluation research.

No added value of age at menopause and the lifetime cumulative number of menstrual cycles for cardiovascular risk prediction in postmenopausal women.

PubMed

Atsma, Femke; van der Schouw, Yvonne T; Grobbee, Diederick E; Hoes, Arno W; Bartelink, Marie-Louise E L

2008-11-12

The aim of the present study was to investigate the added value of age at menopause and the lifetime cumulative number of menstrual cycles in cardiovascular risk prediction in postmenopausal women. This study included 971 women. The ankle-arm index was used as a proxy for cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. The ankle-arm index was calculated for each leg by dividing the highest ankle systolic blood pressure by the highest brachial systolic blood pressure. A cut-off value of 0.95 was used to differentiate between low and high risk women. Three cardiovascular risk models were constructed. In the initial model all classical predictors for cardiovascular disease were investigated. This model was then extended by age at menopause or the lifetime cumulative number of menstrual cycles to test their added value for cardiovascular risk prediction. Differences in discriminative power between the models were investigated by comparing the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. The mean age was 66.0 (+/-5.6) years. The 6 independent predictors for cardiovascular disease were age, systolic blood pressure, total to HDL cholesterol ratio, current smoking, glucose level, and body mass index > or =30 kg/m(2). The ROC area was 0.69 (0.64-0.73) and did not change when age at menopause or the lifetime cumulative number of menstrual cycles was added. The findings in this study among postmenopausal women did not support the view that age at menopause or a refined estimation of lifetime endogenous estrogen exposure would improve cardiovascular risk prediction as approximated by the ankle-arm index.

A Microwave Ring-Resonator Sensor for Non-Invasive Assessment of Meat Aging

PubMed Central

Jilani, Muhammad Taha; Wen, Wong Peng; Cheong, Lee Yen; ur Rehman, Muhammad Zaka

2016-01-01

The assessment of moisture loss from meat during the aging period is a critical issue for the meat industry. In this article, a non-invasive microwave ring-resonator sensor is presented to evaluate the moisture content, or more precisely water holding capacity (WHC) of broiler meat over a four-week period. The developed sensor has shown significant changes in its resonance frequency and return loss due to reduction in WHC in the studied duration. The obtained results are also confirmed by physical measurements. Further, these results are evaluated using the Fricke model, which provides a good fit for electric circuit components in biological tissue. Significant changes were observed in membrane integrity, where the corresponding capacitance decreases 30% in the early aging (0D-7D) period. Similarly, the losses associated with intracellular and extracellular fluids exhibit changed up to 42% and 53%, respectively. Ultimately, empirical polynomial models are developed to predict the electrical component values for a better understanding of aging effects. The measured and calculated values are found to be in good agreement. PMID:26805828

A Microwave Ring-Resonator Sensor for Non-Invasive Assessment of Meat Aging.

PubMed

Jilnai, Muhammad Taha; Wen, Wong Peng; Cheong, Lee Yen; ur Rehman, Muhammad Zaka

2016-01-20

The assessment of moisture loss from meat during the aging period is a critical issue for the meat industry. In this article, a non-invasive microwave ring-resonator sensor is presented to evaluate the moisture content, or more precisely water holding capacity (WHC) of broiler meat over a four-week period. The developed sensor has shown significant changes in its resonance frequency and return loss due to reduction in WHC in the studied duration. The obtained results are also confirmed by physical measurements. Further, these results are evaluated using the Fricke model, which provides a good fit for electric circuit components in biological tissue. Significant changes were observed in membrane integrity, where the corresponding capacitance decreases 30% in the early aging (0D-7D) period. Similarly, the losses associated with intracellular and extracellular fluids exhibit changed up to 42% and 53%, respectively. Ultimately, empirical polynomial models are developed to predict the electrical component values for a better understanding of aging effects. The measured and calculated values are found to be in good agreement.

AGE-DEPENDENT INHALATION DOSE DUE TO EXPOSURE OF SHORT LIVED PROGENY OF RADON AND THORON FOR DIFFERENT AGE GROUPS IN JAMMU & KASHMIR, HIMALAYAS.

PubMed

Sharma, Sumit; Kumar, Ajay; Mehra, Rohit

2018-05-16

Dosimetric approach is used in this study for the assessment of doses due to inhalation of short lived radon/thoron progeny to the inhabitants of Udhampur district of Jammu & Kashmir. This paper also presents the activity concentrations and unattached fraction of radon and thoron progeny. The observed annual concentration of attached and unattached 222Rn and 220Rn progeny has been found to vary from 8 to 32 and 0.09 to 14 Bq/m3, 0.75 to 3.16 and 0.01 to 1.13 Bq/m3, respectively. The inhalation doses from radon progeny to different body organs of different age groups have been calculated by using the age dependent biokinetic model. The attachment rate of 222Rn and indoor aerosol concentration of 222Rn and 220Rn have been estimated and their relation between them has also been studied. The dose conversion factor for mouth and nasal breathing to different exposure conditions has been obtained from Porstendorfer model.

Trends and predictions for gastric cancer mortality in Brazil.

PubMed

de Souza Giusti, Angela Carolina Brandão; de Oliveira Salvador, Pétala Tuani Candido; Dos Santos, Juliano; Meira, Karina Cardoso; Camacho, Amanda Rodrigues; Guimarães, Raphael Mendonça; Souza, Dyego L B

2016-07-28

To analyze the effect of age-period and birth cohort on gastric cancer mortality, in Brazil and across its five geographic regions, by sex, in the population over 20 years of age, as well as make projections for the period 2010-2029. An ecological study is presented herein, which distributed gastric cancer-related deaths in Brazil and its geographic regions. The effects of age-period and birth cohort were calculated by the Poisson regression model and projections were made with the age-period-cohort model in the statistical program R. Progressive reduction of mortality rates was observed in the 1980's, and then higher and lower mortality rates were verified in the 2000's, for both sexes, in Brazil and for the South, Southeast and Midwest regions. A progressive decrease in mortality rates was observed for the Northeast (both sexes) and North (men only) regions within the period 1995-1999, followed by rising rates. Regional differences were demonstrated in the mortality rates for gastric cancer in Brazil, and the least developed regions of the country will present increases in projected mortality rates.

Specimen geometry effects on graphite/PMR-15 composites during thermo-oxidative aging

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bowles, K. J.; Meyers, A.

1986-01-01

Studies were conducted to establish the effects of specimen geometry on the thermo-oxidative stability and the mechanical properties retention of unidirectional Celion 12000 graphite fiber reinforced PMR-15 polyimide composites. Weight loss, flexural strength and interlaminar shear strength are measured at isothermal aging times as long as 1639 hr at a temperature of 316 C for three different specimen geometries. It is found that the three different types of specimen surfaces exhibit different values of weight loss/unit area. The mechanical properties retention is also found to be dependent on geometry for these composites. The interlaminar shear strength decreases significantly over the complete range of aging times. The flexural strength retention starts showing geometric dependency after about 1000 hr of aging at 316C. Weight loss fluxes, associated with the three different types of exposed surfaces, are calculated and used to develop an empirical mathematical model for predicting the weight loss behavior of unidirectional composites of arbitrary geometries. Data are presented comparing experimentally determined weight loss with weight loss values predicted using the empirical model.

Trends and predictions for gastric cancer mortality in Brazil

PubMed Central

de Souza Giusti, Angela Carolina Brandão; de Oliveira Salvador, Pétala Tuani Candido; dos Santos, Juliano; Meira, Karina Cardoso; Camacho, Amanda Rodrigues; Guimarães, Raphael Mendonça; Souza, Dyego L B

2016-01-01

AIM: To analyze the effect of age-period and birth cohort on gastric cancer mortality, in Brazil and across its five geographic regions, by sex, in the population over 20 years of age, as well as make projections for the period 2010-2029. METHODS: An ecological study is presented herein, which distributed gastric cancer-related deaths in Brazil and its geographic regions. The effects of age-period and birth cohort were calculated by the Poisson regression model and projections were made with the age-period-cohort model in the statistical program R. RESULTS: Progressive reduction of mortality rates was observed in the 1980’s, and then higher and lower mortality rates were verified in the 2000’s, for both sexes, in Brazil and for the South, Southeast and Midwest regions. A progressive decrease in mortality rates was observed for the Northeast (both sexes) and North (men only) regions within the period 1995-1999, followed by rising rates. CONCLUSION: Regional differences were demonstrated in the mortality rates for gastric cancer in Brazil, and the least developed regions of the country will present increases in projected mortality rates. PMID:27605887

Thermal characterization and model free kinetics of aged epoxies and foams using TGA and DSC methods.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cordaro, Joseph Gabriel; Kruizenga, Alan Michael; Nissen, April

2013-10-01

Two classes of materials, poly(methylene diphenyl diisocyanate) or PMDI foam, and cross-linked epoxy resins, were characterized using thermal gravimetric analysis (TGA) and differential scanning calorimetry (DSC), to help understand the effects of aging and %E2%80%9Cbake-out%E2%80%9D. The materials were evaluated for mass loss and the onset of decomposition. In some experiments, volatile materials released during heating were analyzed via mass spectroscopy. In all, over twenty materials were evaluated to compare the mass loss and onset temperature for decomposition. Model free kinetic (MFK) measurements, acquired using variable heating rate TGA experiments, were used to calculate the apparent activation energy of thermal decomposition.more » From these compiled data the effects of aging, bake-out, and sample history on the thermal stability of materials were compared. No significant differences between aged and unaged materials were detected. Bake-out did slightly affect the onset temperature of decomposition but only at the highest bake-out temperatures. Finally, some recommendations for future handling are made.« less

Specimen geometry effects on graphite/PMR-15 composites during thermo-oxidative aging

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bowles, K. J.; Meyers, A.

1986-01-01

Studies were conducted to establish the effects of specimen geometry on the thermo-oxidative stability and the mechanical properties retention of unidirectional Celion 12000 graphite fiber reinforced PMR-15 polyimide composites. Weight loss, flexural strength and interlaminar shear strength are measured at isothermal aging times as long as 1639 hr at a temperature of 316 C for three different specimen geometries. It is found that the three different types of specimen surfaces exhibit different values of weight loss/unit area. The mechanical properties retention is also found to be dependent on geometry for these composites. The interlaminar shear strength decreases significantly over the complete range of aging times. The flexural strength retention starts showing geometric dependency after about 1000 hr of aging at 316 C. Weight loss fluxes, associated with the three different types of exposed surfaces, are calculated and used to develop an empirical mathematical model for predicting the weight loss behavior of unidirectional composites of arbitrary geometries. Data are presented comparing experimentally determined weight loss with weight loss values predicted using the empirical model.

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN {nu}{sub max} AND AGE t FROM ZAMS TO RGB-TIP FOR LOW-MASS STARS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tang, Y. K.; Gai, N., E-mail: tyk450@163.com, E-mail: ning.gai@hotmail.com

2013-07-10

Stellar age is an important quantity in astrophysics, which is useful for many fields both in the universe and galaxies. It cannot be determined by direct measurements, but can only be estimated or inferred. We attempt to find a useful indicator of stellar age, which is accurate from the zero-age main sequence to the tip of red giant branch for low-mass stars. Using the Yale Rotation and Evolution Code (YREC), a grid of stellar models has been constructed. Meanwhile, the frequency of maximum oscillations' power {nu}{sub max} and the large frequency separation {Delta}{nu} are calculated using the scaling relations. Formore » the stars, the masses of which are from 0.8 M{sub Sun} to 2.8 M{sub Sun }, we can obtain the {nu}{sub max} and stellar age by combing the scaling relations with the four sets of grid models (YREC, Dotter et al., Marigo et al., and YY isochrones). We find that {nu}{sub max} is tightly correlated and decreases monotonically with the age of the star from the main sequence to the red giant evolutionary stages. Moreover, we find that the line shapes of the curves in the Age versus {nu}{sub max} diagram, which is plotted by the four sets of grid models, are consistent for red giants with masses from 1.1 M{sub Sun} to 2.8 M{sub Sun }. For red giants, the differences of correlation coefficients between Age and {nu}{sub max} for different grid models are minor and can be ignored. Interestingly, we find two peaks that correspond to the subgiants and bump of red giants in the Age versus {nu}{sub max} diagram. By general linear least-squares, we make the polynomial fitting and deduce the relationship between log(Age) and log({nu}{sub max}) in red giants' evolutionary state.« less

Prediction of the age at onset in spinocerebellar ataxia type 1, 2, 3 and 6

PubMed Central

Tezenas du Montcel, Sophie; Durr, Alexandra; Rakowicz, Maria; Nanetti, Lorenzo; Charles, Perrine; Sulek, Anna; Mariotti, Caterina; Rola, Rafal; Schols, Ludger; Bauer, Peter; Dufaure-Garé, Isabelle; Jacobi, Heike; Forlani, Sylvie; Schmitz-Hübsch, Tanja; Filla, Alessandro; Timmann, Dagmar; van de Warrenburg, Bart P; Marelli, Cecila; Kang, Jun-Suk; Giunti, Paola; Cook, Arron; Baliko, Laszlo; Bela, Melegh; Boesch, Sylvia; Szymanski, Sandra; Berciano, José; Infante, Jon; Buerk, Katrin; Masciullo, Marcella; Di Fabio, Roberto; Depondt, Chantal; Ratka, Susanne; Stevanin, Giovanni; Klockgether, Thomas; Brice, Alexis; Golmard, Jean-Louis

2014-01-01

Background The most common spinocerebellar ataxias (SCA)—SCA1, SCA2, SCA3, and SCA6—are caused by (CAG)n repeat expansion. While the number of repeats of the coding (CAG)n expansions is correlated with the age at onset, there are no appropriate models that include both affected and preclinical carriers allowing for the prediction of age at onset. Methods We combined data from two major European cohorts of SCA1, SCA2, SCA3, and SCA6 mutation carriers: 1187 affected individuals from the EUROSCA registry and 123 preclinical individuals from the RISCA cohort. For each SCA genotype, a regression model was fitted using a log-normal distribution for age at onset with the repeat length of the alleles as covariates. From these models, we calculated expected age at onset from birth and conditionally that this age is greater than the current age. Results For SCA2 and SCA3 genotypes, the expanded allele was a significant predictor of age at onset (−0.105±0.005 and −0.056±0.003) while for SCA1 and SCA6 genotypes both the size of the expanded and normal alleles were significant (expanded: −0.049±0.002 and −0.090±0.009, respectively; normal: +0.013±0.005 and −0.029±0.010, respectively). According to the model, we indicated the median values (90% critical region) and the expectancy (SD) of the predicted age at onset for each SCA genotype according to the CAG repeat size and current age. Conclusions These estimations can be valuable in clinical and research. However, results need to be confirmed in other independent cohorts and in future longitudinal studies. ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01037777 and NCT00136630 for the French patients. PMID:24780882

Emission-line diagnostics of nearby H II regions including interacting binary populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiao, Lin; Stanway, Elizabeth R.; Eldridge, J. J.

2018-06-01

We present numerical models of the nebular emission from H II regions around young stellar populations over a range of compositions and ages. The synthetic stellar populations include both single stars and interacting binary stars. We compare these models to the observed emission lines of 254 H II regions of 13 nearby spiral galaxies and 21 dwarf galaxies drawn from archival data. The models are created using the combination of the BPASS (Binary Population and Spectral Synthesis) code with the photoionization code CLOUDY to study the differences caused by the inclusion of interacting binary stars in the stellar population. We obtain agreement with the observed emission line ratios from the nearby star-forming regions and discuss the effect of binary-star evolution pathways on the nebular ionization of H II regions. We find that at population ages above 10 Myr, single-star models rapidly decrease in flux and ionization strength, while binary-star models still produce strong flux and high [O III]/H β ratios. Our models can reproduce the metallicity of H II regions from spiral galaxies, but we find higher metallicities than previously estimated for the H II regions from dwarf galaxies. Comparing the equivalent width of H β emission between models and observations, we find that accounting for ionizing photon leakage can affect age estimates for H II regions. When it is included, the typical age derived for H II regions is 5 Myr from single-star models, and up to 10 Myr with binary-star models. This is due to the existence of binary-star evolution pathways, which produce more hot Wolf-Rayet and helium stars at older ages. For future reference, we calculate new BPASS binary maximal starburst lines as a function of metallicity, and for the total model population, and present these in Appendix A.

Characterizing Facial Skin Ageing in Humans: Disentangling Extrinsic from Intrinsic Biological Phenomena

PubMed Central

Trojahn, Carina; Dobos, Gabor; Lichterfeld, Andrea; Blume-Peytavi, Ulrike; Kottner, Jan

2015-01-01

Facial skin ageing is caused by intrinsic and extrinsic mechanisms. Intrinsic ageing is highly related to chronological age. Age related skin changes can be measured using clinical and biophysical methods. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether and how clinical characteristics and biophysical parameters are associated with each other with and without adjustment for chronological age. Twenty-four female subjects of three age groups were enrolled. Clinical assessments (global facial skin ageing, wrinkling, and sagging), and biophysical measurements (roughness, colour, skin elasticity, and barrier function) were conducted at both upper cheeks. Pearson's correlations and linear regression models adjusted for age were calculated. Most of the measured parameters were correlated with chronological age (e.g., association with wrinkle score, r = 0.901) and with each other (e.g., residual skin deformation and wrinkle score, r = 0.606). After statistical adjustment for age, only few associations remained (e.g., mean roughness (R z) and luminance (L *),  β = −0.507, R 2 = 0.377). Chronological age as surrogate marker for intrinsic ageing has the most important influence on most facial skin ageing signs. Changes in skin elasticity, wrinkling, sagging, and yellowness seem to be caused by additional extrinsic ageing. PMID:25767806

Ar-Ar dating and petrogenesis of the Early Miocene Taşkapı-Mecitli (Erciş-Van) granitoid, Eastern Anatolia Collisional Zone, Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oyan, Vural

2018-06-01

The Early Miocene Taşkapı-Mecitli granitoid that is located in the northern section of the Eastern Anatolia Collision Zone has typical I-type, metaluminous and calk-alkaline characteristics. It also contains mafic microgranular / magmatic enclaves (MMEs). New Ar-Ar dating results show that the age of the Taşkapı-Mecitli granitoid is ∼23 Ma and it crystallised in the Early Miocene, in contrast to its previously known Cretaceous age. Identical crystallisation ages (∼23 Ma), similar mineral assemblages and geochemical compositions, and indistinguishable isotopic compositions of MMEs and host rocks imply that the MMEs are most consistent with a cumulate origin formed at earlier stages of the same magmatic system that produced the Taşkapı-Mecitli granitoid. MELTS modelling suggests that magma of the Taşkapı-Mecitli granitoid was the result of fractionation under a crustal pressure of 4 kbar, with a H2O content of 1.5%. EC-AFC model calculation reveals that the Taşkapı-Mecitli granitoid includes from 0.5% to 2% crustal assimilation rates. These rates indicate that crustal contamination can be negligible when compared to fractional crystallisation in the evolution of the magma beneath the Taşkapı-Mecitli granitoid. The partial melting model calculations and MORB-normalised trace element concentrations of the least evolved samples of the Taşkapı-Mecitli granitoid are consistent with those of mafic melts obtained from partial melting of interacting mantle- lower crust with a melting degree of 18%. The age (23 Ma) of the post- or syn-collisional Taşkapı-Mecitli granitoid suggests that the collision between Arabian and Eurasian plates could be before/around ∼23 Ma (Late Oligocene to Early Miocene).

DEVELOPMENT OF A SET OF MESH-BASED AND AGE-DEPENDENT CHINESE PHANTOMS AND APPLICATION FOR CT DOSE CALCULATIONS.

PubMed

Pi, Yifei; Liu, Tianyu; Xu, X George

2018-06-01

Phantoms for organ dose calculations are essential in radiation protection dosimetry. This article describes the development of a set of mesh-based and age-dependent phantoms for Chinese populations using reference data recommended by the Chinese government and by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Existing mesh-based RPI adult male (RPI-AM) and RPI adult female (RPI-AF) phantoms were deformed to form new phantoms according to anatomical data for the height and weight of Chinese individuals of 5 years old male, 5 years old female, 10 years old male, 10 years old female,15 years old male, 15 years old female, adult male and adult female-named USTC-5 M, USTC-5F, USTC-10M, USTC-10F, USTC-15M, USTC-15F, USTC-AM and USTC-AF, respectively. Following procedures to ensure the accuracy, more than 120 organs/tissues in each model were adjusted to match the Chinese reference parameters and the mass errors were within 0.5%. To demonstrate the usefulness, these new set of phantoms were combined with a fully validated model of the GE LightSpeed Pro 16 multi-detector computed tomography (MDCT) scanner and the GPU-based ARCHER Monte Carlo code to compute organ doses from CT examinations. Organ doses for adult models were then compared with the data of RPI-AM and RPI-AF under the same conditions. The absorbed doses and the effective doses of RPI phantoms are found to be lower than these of the USTC adult phantoms whose body sizes are smaller. Comparisons for the doses among different ages and genders were also made. It was found that teenagers receive more radiation doses than adults do. Such Chinese-specific phantoms are clearly better suited in organ dose studies for the Chinese individuals than phantoms designed for western populations. As already demonstrated, data derived from age-specific Chinese phantoms can help CT operators and designers to optimize image quality and doses.

Insight into He diffusion in apatite by ion beam experiments and quantum calculations: implication for the (U-Th)/He thermochronometer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gautheron, C.; Mbongo-Djimbi, D.; Gerin, C.; Roques, J.; Bachelet, C.; Oliviero, E.; Tassan-Got, L.

2015-12-01

The apatite (U-Th)/He (AHe) system has rapidly become a very popular thermochronometer, however, interpretation of AHe age depends on a precise knowledge of He diffusion. Several studies suggest that He retention is function of the amount of damage that is controlled by U-Th concentration, grain chemistry and thermal history. Still, the models are not well constrained and do not fully explain the mechanism of He retention. In order to have a deeper insight into this issue, a multidisciplinary study on apatite combining physical methods such as multi-scale theoretical diffusion calculations based on Density Functional Theory (DFT) with diffusion experiments by ion beam Elastic Recoil Diffusion Analysis (ERDA) were performed. Quantum calculations permit to quantify He diffusivity base level for damage-free crystal and to estimate the additional energy cost to extract He atoms trapped in point defects (i.e. vacancies). On the other hand ion beam ERDA experiments allow to measure He diffusivity in artificially damaged crystals. We show that damage-free apatite crystals are characterized by low retention behavior and closure temperature of ~35°C for pure F-apatite to higher value for Cl rich apatite (up to 12°C higher), for typical grain size and cooling rate (Mbongo-Djimbi et al., 2015). Our computed closure temperature is slightly lower than previously reported experimental values (~50°C). Using ERDA and DFT modeling of damage, we show how He diffusivity is influenced by damage. Finally, we are able to propose a new modeling of He diffusion incorporating mechanisms not included in classical damage models, and taking into account the level of damage and apatite chemistry. We show that it could affect significantly AHe age interpretation. Mbongo-Djimbi D. et al. 2015. Apatite composition effect on (U-Th)/He thermochronometer: an atomistic point of view. Geohimica Cosmochim. Acta.

Age at menarche, androgen concentrations, and midlife obesity: findings from the Midlife Women's Health Study.

PubMed

Gallicchio, Lisa; Flaws, Jodi A; Smith, Rebecca L

2016-11-01

Studies have shown that earlier age at menarche is associated with a higher risk of midlife obesity; however, the mechanism underlying this association is not known. The purpose of this study was to examine whether the association between age at menarche and midlife obesity is due to variation in circulating androgen concentrations. Baseline data were analyzed from 748 women aged 45 to 54 years enrolled in the Midlife Women's Health Study, a prospective cohort study conducted in the Baltimore, MD region. Information on age at menarche was collected through a self-administered questionnaire. Body mass index (BMI) was calculated using height and weight measured at a clinic visit. Obesity was defined as a BMI between 30 and 34.9 kg/m; super obesity was defined as a BMI greater than 35 kg/m. Testosterone, estradiol, and sex hormone-binding globulin were measured in blood samples using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays. The free androgen index (FAI) was calculated using the formula: (testosterone × 3.467)/sex hormone-binding globulin × 100. After adjustment for covariates, for each year increase in age at menarche, the odds of obesity and super obesity decreased by 31% (odds ratio (OR) 0.69; 95% confidence limits (CL) 0.59, 0.81) and 34% (OR 0.66; 95% CL 0.52, 0.83), respectively. Addition of the FAI into the models did not attenuate the observed estimates. The results of this study indicate that age at menarche is associated with midlife obesity independent of free testosterone concentrations measured in adulthood.

The importance of pre-annealing treatment for ESR dating of mollusc shells: A key study for İsmil in Konya closed Basin/Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ekici, Gamze; Sayin, Ulku; Aydin, Hulya; Isik, Mesut; Kapan, Sevinc; Demir, Ahmet; Engin, Birol; Delikan, Arif; Orhan, Hukmu; Biyik, Recep; Ozmen, Ayhan

2018-02-01

In this study, Electron Spin Resonance (ESR) spectroscopy is used to determine the geological ages of fossil mollusc shells systematically collected from two different geological splitting at İsmil Location (37.72769° N, 33.17781° E) in eastern part of Konya. According to the assessment of obtained ESR ages, the importance of pre-annealing treatment emphasize in the case of g=2.0007 dating signal is overlapped with the other signals arisen from short lived radicals that cause the wrong age calculation. To overcome this problem, the samples are pre-annealed at 180°C for 16 minutes and, in this case ESR ages are re-calculated for g=1.9973 dating signal. Dose response curves are obtained using 1.9973 signals after pre-annealing treatments for each samples. ESR ages of samples are obtained in the range of 138 ± 38 ka and 132 ± 30 ka (Upper Pleistocene) according to the Early Uranium Uptake model and the results are in good agreement with the estimated ages from stratigraphic and paleontological correlation by geologists. Thus, it is suggested that especially in the case of 2.0007 dating signal cannot been used due to superimposition case, the signal with 1.9973 g value can be used for dating after pre-annealing treatment. The results reports the first ESR ages on shells collected from İsmil Location and highlight the importance of pre-annealing treatment. This study is supported by TUBITAK 114Y237 research project.

Combining wrist age and third molars in forensic age estimation: how to calculate the joint age estimate and its error rate in age diagnostics.

PubMed

Gelbrich, Bianca; Frerking, Carolin; Weiss, Sandra; Schwerdt, Sebastian; Stellzig-Eisenhauer, Angelika; Tausche, Eve; Gelbrich, Götz

2015-01-01

Forensic age estimation in living adolescents is based on several methods, e.g. the assessment of skeletal and dental maturation. Combination of several methods is mandatory, since age estimates from a single method are too imprecise due to biological variability. The correlation of the errors of the methods being combined must be known to calculate the precision of combined age estimates. To examine the correlation of the errors of the hand and the third molar method and to demonstrate how to calculate the combined age estimate. Clinical routine radiographs of the hand and dental panoramic images of 383 patients (aged 7.8-19.1 years, 56% female) were assessed. Lack of correlation (r = -0.024, 95% CI = -0.124 to + 0.076, p = 0.64) allows calculating the combined age estimate as the weighted average of the estimates from hand bones and third molars. Combination improved the standard deviations of errors (hand = 0.97, teeth = 1.35 years) to 0.79 years. Uncorrelated errors of the age estimates obtained from both methods allow straightforward determination of the common estimate and its variance. This is also possible when reference data for the hand and the third molar method are established independently from each other, using different samples.

Mapping CHU9D Utility Scores from the PedsQLTM 4.0 SF-15.

PubMed

Mpundu-Kaambwa, Christine; Chen, Gang; Russo, Remo; Stevens, Katherine; Petersen, Karin Dam; Ratcliffe, Julie

2017-04-01

The Pediatric Quality of Life Inventory™ 4.0 Short Form 15 Generic Core Scales (hereafter the PedsQL) and the Child Health Utility-9 Dimensions (CHU9D) are two generic instruments designed to measure health-related quality of life in children and adolescents in the general population and paediatric patient groups living with specific health conditions. Although the PedsQL is widely used among paediatric patient populations, presently it is not possible to directly use the scores from the instrument to calculate quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) for application in economic evaluation because it produces summary scores which are not preference-based. This paper examines different econometric mapping techniques for estimating CHU9D utility scores from the PedsQL for the purpose of calculating QALYs for cost-utility analysis. The PedsQL and the CHU9D were completed by a community sample of 755 Australian adolescents aged 15-17 years. Seven regression models were estimated: ordinary least squares estimator, generalised linear model, robust MM estimator, multivariate factorial polynomial estimator, beta-binomial estimator, finite mixture model and multinomial logistic model. The mean absolute error (MAE) and the mean squared error (MSE) were used to assess predictive ability of the models. The MM estimator with stepwise-selected PedsQL dimension scores as explanatory variables had the best predictive accuracy using MAE and the equivalent beta-binomial model had the best predictive accuracy using MSE. Our mapping algorithm facilitates the estimation of health-state utilities for use within economic evaluations where only PedsQL data is available and is suitable for use in community-based adolescents aged 15-17 years. Applicability of the algorithm in younger populations should be assessed in further research.

Influence of fracture anisotropy on ground water ages and chemistry, Valley and Ridge province, Pennsylvania

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burton, W.C.; Plummer, Niel; Busenberg, E.; Lindsey, B.D.; Gburek, W.J.

2002-01-01

Model ground water ages based on chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and tritium/helium-3 (3H/3He) data were obtained from two arrays of nested piezometers located on the north limb of an anticline in fractured sedimentary rocks in the Valley and Ridge geologic province of Pennsylvania. The fracture geometry of the gently east plunging fold is very regular and consists predominately of south dipping to subhorizontal to north dipping bedding-plane parting and east striking, steeply dipping axial-plane spaced cleavage. In the area of the piezometer arrays, which trend north-south on the north limb of the fold, north dipping bedding-plane parting is a more dominant fracture set than is steeply south dipping axial-plane cleavage. The dating of ground water from the piezometer arrays reveals that ground water traveling along paths parallel to the dip direction of bedding-plane parting has younger 3H/3He and CFC model ages, or a greater component of young water, than does ground water traveling along paths opposite to the dip direction. In predominantly unmixed samples there is a strong positive correlation between age of the young fraction of water and dissolved sodium concentration. The travel times inferred from the model ages are significantly longer than those previously calculated by a ground water flow model, which assumed isotropically fractured layers parallel to topography. A revised model factors in the directional anisotropy to produce longer travel times. Ground water travel times in the watershed therefore appear to be more influenced by anisotropic fracture geometry than previously realized. This could have significant implications for ground water models in other areas underlain by similarly tilted or folded sedimentary rock, such as elsewhere in the Valley and Ridge or the early Mesozoic basins.

Factors Contributing to High PhD Completion Rates: A Case Study in a Research-Intensive University in New Zealand

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Spronken-Smith, Rachel; Cameron, Claire; Quigg, Robin

2018-01-01

This exploratory study determined PhD completions at a research-intensive university in New Zealand and considered factors affecting PhD completions. Completion data were calculated for PhD cohorts at the University of Otago from 2000 to 2012 (n = 2770) and survival models determined whether gender, enrolment status, age at admission, citizenship,…

Age and growth of alewives in the changing pelagia of Lake Ontario, 1978-1992

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Gorman, Robert; Johannsson, Ora E.; Schneider, Clifford P.

1997-01-01

We documented the age and growth of alewives Alosa pseudoharenqus in Lake Ontario during 1978-1992 and determined if growth was affected by intraspecific competition for epilimnetic zooplankton, lake temperature, or demand of salmonine piscivores for prey. Ages of juvenile alewives were determined from scales during 1978-1983, and ages of juvenile and adult alewives were determined from otoliths during 1984-1992. Indices of abundance for alewives were calculated from spring bottom trawl catches in 1978-1992; zooplankton density and epilimnetic temperature were monitored at two stations during 1981-1991; and salmonine demand each year during 1978-1992 was calculated with a simulation model. Although we encountered 11-year-old alewives, few fish lived longer than 7 years, and most fish in the population were younger than 6 years. Mean sizes at ages 1, 2, and 3 in spring averaged 93 mm (5.1 g), 133 mm (17 g), and 149 mm (22 g), but from age 3 to age 8, mean size increased by only 5-7 mm and 2-3 g per year. Female alewives lived longer than male alewives and were always longer than male alewives at age 4 and older. Epilimnetic temperatures were suitable for rapid growth of juvenile alewives each year. Lake temperature had the potential to affect growth of adults but adult growth was not correlated with temperature suitability indices perhaps because temperature regimes differed among lake regions and alewives were mobile. Growth of alewives was not correlated with salmonine demand for prey. Competition for zooplankton among the two youngest alewife cohorts affected growth of age-1 alewives. Zooplankton density declined sharply in 1986, and should it decline again, growth of age-1 alewives will slow, unless numbers of age-0 alewives fall. Whether growth of age-1 fish declines or numbers of age-0 fish fall, the result of another decline in zooplankton density will be a reduction in the production of alewives needed to support piscivores.

Total carbon accumulation in a tropical forest landscape.

PubMed

Sierra, Carlos A; Del Valle, Jorge I; Restrepo, Hector I

2012-12-19

Regrowing tropical forests worldwide sequester important amounts of carbon and restore part of the C emissions emitted by deforestation. However, there are large uncertainties concerning the rates of carbon accumulation after the abandonment of agricultural and pasture land. We report here accumulation of total carbon stocks (TCS) in a chronosequence of secondary forests at a mid-elevation landscape (900-1200 m asl) in the Andean mountains of Colombia. We found positive accumulation rates for all ecosystem pools except soil carbon, which showed no significant trend of recovery after 36 years of secondary succession. We used these data to develop a simple model to predict accumulation of TCS over time. This model performed remarkably well predicting TCS at other chronosequences in the Americas (Root Mean Square Error < 40 Mg C ha-1), which provided an opportunity to explore different assumptions in the calculation of large-scale carbon budgets. Simulations of TCS with our empirical model were used to test three assumptions often made in carbon budgets: 1) the use of carbon accumulation in tree aboveground biomass as a surrogate for accumulation of TCS, 2) the implicit consideration of carbon legacies from previous land-use, and 3) the omission of landscape age in calculating accumulation rates of TCS. Our simulations showed that in many situations carbon can be released from regrowing secondary forests depending on the amount of carbon legacies and the average age of the landscape. In most cases, the rates used to predict carbon accumulation in the Americas were above the rates predicted in our simulations. These biome level rates seemed to be realistic only in landscapes not affected by carbon legacies from previous land-use and mean ages of around 10 years.

Total carbon accumulation in a tropical forest landscape

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Regrowing tropical forests worldwide sequester important amounts of carbon and restore part of the C emissions emitted by deforestation. However, there are large uncertainties concerning the rates of carbon accumulation after the abandonment of agricultural and pasture land. We report here accumulation of total carbon stocks (TCS) in a chronosequence of secondary forests at a mid-elevation landscape (900-1200 m asl) in the Andean mountains of Colombia. Results We found positive accumulation rates for all ecosystem pools except soil carbon, which showed no significant trend of recovery after 36 years of secondary succession. We used these data to develop a simple model to predict accumulation of TCS over time. This model performed remarkably well predicting TCS at other chronosequences in the Americas (Root Mean Square Error < 40 Mg C ha-1), which provided an opportunity to explore different assumptions in the calculation of large-scale carbon budgets. Simulations of TCS with our empirical model were used to test three assumptions often made in carbon budgets: 1) the use of carbon accumulation in tree aboveground biomass as a surrogate for accumulation of TCS, 2) the implicit consideration of carbon legacies from previous land-use, and 3) the omission of landscape age in calculating accumulation rates of TCS. Conclusions Our simulations showed that in many situations carbon can be released from regrowing secondary forests depending on the amount of carbon legacies and the average age of the landscape. In most cases, the rates used to predict carbon accumulation in the Americas were above the rates predicted in our simulations. These biome level rates seemed to be realistic only in landscapes not affected by carbon legacies from previous land-use and mean ages of around 10 years. PMID:23249727

Colorectal cancer mortality trends in Córdoba, Argentina.

PubMed

Pou, Sonia Alejandra; Osella, Alberto Rubén; Eynard, Aldo Renato; Niclis, Camila; Diaz, María del Pilar

2009-12-01

Colorectal cancer is a leading cause of death worldwide for men and women, and one of the most commonly diagnosed in Córdoba, Argentina. The aim of this work was to provide an up-to-date approach to descriptive epidemiology of colorectal cancer in Córdoba throughout the estimation of mortality trends in the period 1986-2006, using Joinpoint and age-period-cohort (APC) models. Age-standardized (world population) mortality rates (ASMR), overall and truncated (35-64 years), were calculated and Joinpoint regression performed to compute the estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC). Poisson sequential models were fitted to estimate the effect of age (11 age groups), period (1986-1990, 1991-1995, 1996-2000 or 2001-2006) and cohort (13 ten-years cohorts overlapping each other by five-years) on colorectal cancer mortality rates. ASMR showed an overall significant decrease (EAPC -0.9 95%CI: -1.7, -0.2) for women, being more noticeable from 1996 onwards (EAPC -2.1 95%CI: -4.0, -0.1). Age-effect showed an important rise in both sexes, but more evident in males. Birth cohort- and period effects reflected increasing and decreasing tendencies for men and women, respectively. Differences in mortality rates were found according to sex and could be related to age-period-cohort effects linked to the ageing process, health care and lifestyle. Further research is needed to elucidate the specific age-, period- and cohort-related factors.

Characterization of ovarian aging and reproductive senescence in vervet monkeys (Chlorocebus aethiops sabaeus).

PubMed

Atkins, Hannah M; Willson, Cynthia J; Silverstein, Marnie; Jorgensen, Matthew; Floyd, Edison; Kaplan, Jay R; Appt, Susan E

2014-02-01

Female vervet monkeys (Chlorocebus aethiops sabaeus) are used as an experimental model for chronic diseases relevant to women's health. However, reproductive senescence (menopause) has not yet been characterized for vervet monkeys. Here we describe the histologic, hormonal, and menstrual markers of reproductive senescence in vervet monkeys from the Wake Forest Vervet Research Colony. Ovaries from monkeys (age, 0 to 27 y) were serially sectioned (5 μm), stained, and photographed. In every 100th section, the numbers of primordial, primary, and secondary follicles were determined, and triplicate measurements were used to calculate mean numbers of follicles per ovary. Antimüllerian hormone (AMH), follicle stimulating hormone, and menstrual cycle length were measured in additional monkeys. Primordial follicles and AMH decreased significantly with age, and significant correlations between numbers of primordial and primary follicles and between numbers of primary and secondary follicles were noted. Histologic evaluation revealed that ovaries from 4 aged monkeys (older than 23 y) were senescent. One aged monkey transitioned to menopause, experiencing cycle irregularity over 4 y, eventual cessation of menses, and plasma AMH below the level of detection. Finally, with increasing age, the percentage of female vervets with offspring declined significantly. The present study provides insight into ovarian aging and reproductive senescence in vervet monkeys. Results highlight the importance of considering this nonhuman primate as a model to investigate the relationships between ovarian aging and chronic disease risk.

Factors associated with mouth breathing in children with -developmental -disabilities.

PubMed

de Castilho, Lia Silva; Abreu, Mauro Henrique Nogueira Guimarães; de Oliveira, Renata Batista; Souza E Silva, Maria Elisa; Resende, Vera Lúcia Silva

2016-01-01

To investigate the prevalence and factors associated with mouth breathing among patients with developmental disabilities of a dental service. We analyzed 408 dental records. Mouth breathing was reported by the patients' parents and from direct observation. Other variables were as -follows: history of asthma, bronchitis, palate shape, pacifier use, thumb -sucking, nail biting, use of medications, gastroesophageal reflux, bruxism, gender, age, and diagnosis of the patient. Statistical analysis included descriptive analysis with ratio calculation and multiple logistic regression. Variables with p < 0.25 were included in the model to estimate the adjusted OR (95% CI), calculated by the forward stepwise method. Variables with p ​​< 0.05 were kept in the model. Being male (p = 0.016) and use of centrally acting drugs (p = 0.001) were the variables that remained in the model. Among patients with -developmental disabilities, boys and psychotropic drug users had a greater chance of being mouth breathers. © 2016 Special Care Dentistry Association and Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

The discount rate in the economic evaluation of prevention: a thought experiment.

PubMed

Bonneux, L; Birnie, E

2001-02-01

In the standard economic model of evaluation, constant discount rates devalue the long term health benefits of prevention strongly. This study shows that it is unlikely that this reflects societal preference. A thought experiment in a cause elimination life table calculates savings of eliminating cardiovascular disease from the Dutch population. A cost effectiveness analysis calculates the acceptable costs of such an intervention at a threshold of 18 000 Euro per saved life year. Cause specific mortality (all cardiovascular causes of death and all other causes) and health care costs (all costs of cardiovascular disease and all other causes of costs) by age and male sex of 1994. At a 0% discount rate, an intervention eliminating cardiovascular disease may cost 71 100 Euro. At the same threshold but at discount rates of 3% or 6%, the same intervention may cost 8100 Euro (8.8 times less) or 1100 Euro (65 times less). The standard economic model needs more realistic duration dependent models of time preference, which reflect societal preference.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

J. Bisset

This calculation documents the design of the Spent Nuclear Fuel (SNF) and High-Level Waste (HLW) Cask storage slab for the Aging Area. The design is based on the weights of casks that may be stored on the slab, the weights of vehicles that may be used to move the casks, and the layout shown on the sketch for a 1000 Metric Ton of Heavy Metal (MTHM) storage pad on Attachment 2, Sht.1 of the calculation 170-C0C-C000-00100-000-00A (BSC 2004a). The analytical model used herein is based on the storage area for 8 vertical casks. To simplify the model, the storage areamore » of the horizontal concrete modules and their related shield walls is not included. The heavy weights of the vertical storage casks and the tensile forces due to pullout at the anchorages will produce design moments and shear forces that will envelope those that would occur in the storage area of the horizontal modules. The design loadings will also include snow and live loads. In addition, the design will also reflect pertinent geotechnical data. This calculation will document the preliminary thickness and general reinforcing steel requirements for the slab. This calculation also documents the initial design of the cask anchorage. Other slab details are not developed in this calculation. They will be developed during the final design process. The calculation also does not include the evaluation of the effects of cask drop loads. These will be evaluated in this or another calculation when the exact cask geometry is known.« less

Foam-on-Tile Damage Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koharchik, Michael; Murphy, Lindsay; Parker, Paul

2012-01-01

An impact model was developed to predict how three specific foam types would damage the Space Shuttle Orbiter insulating tiles. The inputs needed for the model are the foam type, the foam mass, the foam impact velocity, the foam impact incident angle, the type being impacted, and whether the tile is new or aged (has flown at least one mission). The model will determine if the foam impact will cause damage to the tile. If it can cause damage, the model will output the damage cavity dimensions (length, depth, entry angle, exit angle, and sidewall angles). It makes the calculations as soon as the inputs are entered (less than 1 second). The model allows for the rapid calculation of numerous scenarios in a short time. The model was developed from engineering principles coupled with significant impact testing (over 800 foam impact tests). This model is applicable to masses ranging from 0.0002 up to 0.4 pound (0.09 up to 181 g). A prior tool performed a similar function, but was limited to the assessment of a small range of masses and did not have the large test database for verification. In addition, the prior model did not provide outputs of the cavity damage length, entry angle, exit angle, or sidewall angles.

The Cool White Dwarf Luminosity Function and the Age of the Galactic Disk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leggett, S. K.; Ruiz, Maria Teresa; Bergeron, P.

1998-04-01

We present new optical and infrared data for the cool white dwarfs in the proper motion sample of Liebert, Dahn, & Monet. Stellar properties--surface chemical composition, effective temperature, radius, surface gravity, mass, and luminosity--are determined from these data by using the model atmospheres of Bergeron, Saumon, & Wesemael. The space density contribution is calculated for each star and the luminosity function (LF) for cool white dwarfs is determined. Comparing the LF to the most recent cooling sequences by Wood implies that the age of the local region of the Galactic disk is 8 +/- 1.5 Gyr. This result is consistent with the younger ages now being derived for the globular clusters and the universe itself.

Methodology for the development of normative data for Spanish-speaking pediatric populations.

PubMed

Rivera, D; Arango-Lasprilla, J C

2017-01-01

To describe the methodology utilized to calculate reliability and the generation of norms for 10 neuropsychological tests for children in Spanish-speaking countries. The study sample consisted of over 4,373 healthy children from nine countries in Latin America (Chile, Cuba, Ecuador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Paraguay, Peru, and Puerto Rico) and Spain. Inclusion criteria for all countries were to have between 6 to 17 years of age, an Intelligence Quotient of≥80 on the Test of Non-Verbal Intelligence (TONI-2), and score of <19 on the Children's Depression Inventory. Participants completed 10 neuropsychological tests. Reliability and norms were calculated for all tests. Test-retest analysis showed excellent or good- reliability on all tests (r's>0.55; p's<0.001) except M-WCST perseverative errors whose coefficient magnitude was fair. All scores were normed using multiple linear regressions and standard deviations of residual values. Age, age2, sex, and mean level of parental education (MLPE) were included as predictors in the models by country. The non-significant variables (p > 0.05) were removed and the analysis were run again. This is the largest Spanish-speaking children and adolescents normative study in the world. For the generation of normative data, the method based on linear regression models and the standard deviation of residual values was used. This method allows determination of the specific variables that predict test scores, helps identify and control for collinearity of predictive variables, and generates continuous and more reliable norms than those of traditional methods.

A deterministic computer simulation model of life-cycle lamb and wool production.

PubMed

Wang, C T; Dickerson, G E

1991-11-01

A deterministic mathematical computer model was developed to simulate effects on life-cycle efficiency of lamb and wool production from genetic improvement of performance traits under alternative management systems. Genetic input parameters can be varied for age at puberty, length of anestrus, fertility, precocity of fertility, number born, milk yield, mortality, growth rate, body fat, and wool growth. Management options include mating systems, lambing intervals, feeding levels, creep feeding, weaning age, marketing age or weight, and culling policy. Simulated growth of animals is linear from birth to inflection point, then slows asymptotically to specified mature empty BW and fat content when nutrition is not limiting. The ME intake requirement to maintain normal condition is calculated daily or weekly for maintenance, protein and fat deposition, wool growth, gestation, and lactation. Simulated feed intake is the minimum of availability, DM physical limit, or ME physiological limit. Tissue catabolism occurs when intake is below the requirement for essential functions. Mortality increases when BW is depressed. Equations developed for calculations of biological functions were validated with published and unpublished experimental data. Lifetime totals are accumulated for TDN, DM, and protein intake and for market lamb equivalent output values of empty body or carcass lean and wool from both lambs and ewes. These measures of efficiency for combinations of genetic, management, and marketing variables can provide the relative economic weighting of traits needed to derive optimal criteria for genetic selection among and within breeds under defined industry production systems.

Aging Oxidation Reactions on Atmospheric Black Carbon by OH Radicals. A Theoretical Modeling Study.

PubMed

Rojas, Laura; Peraza, Alexander; Ruette, Fernando

2015-12-31

Aging processes of black carbon (BC) particles require knowledge of their chemical reactivities, which have impact on cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) activities, radiant properties and health problems related to air pollutions. In the present work, interactions between several OH radicals with BC (modeled with a coronene molecule) were calculated by using DFT and PM6 codes as described by Mysak et al. Water interaction with BC was also included. Results show that OH radical adsorption is preferred on border sites, independent of the theoretical method employed. Potential energy curves using DFT(TPSS-D3) approach for OH chemisorption showed small-energy barriers, as reported in previous work with PM6. A dipole moment has been created, and the hydrophobic coronene surface is transformed to hydrophilic after the first OH chemisorption. Several stages were found in the BC aging by OH radicals, thus (a) Hydroxylation of coronene by several OH radical would lead to H abstractions directly from the substrate. (b) Abstraction of H from adsorbed OH (at the border sites) drives a C-C bond breaking and the formation of carboxyl groups. (c) Hydrogen abstraction from carboxyl group produces decarboxylation (CO2 plus water) as experimentally obtained. Potential energy curves of one of the reactive path were calculated with the PM6 method. The formation of products was confirmed using DFT. Coronene interaction with O2 was also considered to have a realistic atmospheric environment.

Working memory components that predict word problem solving: Is it merely a function of reading, calculation, and fluid intelligence?

PubMed

Fung, Wenson; Swanson, H Lee

2017-07-01

The purpose of this study was to assess whether the differential effects of working memory (WM) components (the central executive, phonological loop, and visual-spatial sketchpad) on math word problem-solving accuracy in children (N = 413, ages 6-10) are completely mediated by reading, calculation, and fluid intelligence. The results indicated that all three WM components predicted word problem solving in the nonmediated model, but only the storage component of WM yielded a significant direct path to word problem-solving accuracy in the fully mediated model. Fluid intelligence was found to moderate the relationship between WM and word problem solving, whereas reading, calculation, and related skills (naming speed, domain-specific knowledge) completely mediated the influence of the executive system on problem-solving accuracy. Our results are consistent with findings suggesting that storage eliminates the predictive contribution of executive WM to various measures Colom, Rebollo, Abad, & Shih (Memory & Cognition, 34: 158-171, 2006). The findings suggest that the storage component of WM, rather than the executive component, has a direct path to higher-order processing in children.

A case study of the radiative effect of aerosols over Europe: EUCAARI-LONGREX

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Esteve, Anna R.; Highwood, Eleanor J.; Ryder, Claire L.

2016-06-01

The radiative effect of anthropogenic aerosols over Europe during the 2008 European Integrated Project on Aerosol Cloud Climate and Air Quality Interactions Long Range Experiment (EUCAARI-LONGREX) campaign has been calculated using measurements collected by the Facility for Airborne Atmospheric Measurements (FAAM) BAe-146 aircraft and radiative transfer modelling. The aircraft sampled anthropogenically perturbed air masses across north-western Europe under anticyclonic conditions with aerosol optical depths ranging from 0.047 to 0.357. For one specially designed "radiative closure" flight, simulated irradiances have been compared to radiation measurements for a case of aged European aerosol in order to explore the validity of model assumptions and the degree of radiative closure that can be attained given the spatial and temporal variability of the observations and their measurement uncertainties. Secondly, the diurnally averaged aerosol radiative effect throughout EUCAARI-LONGREX has been calculated. The surface radiative effect ranged between -3.9 and -22.8 W m-2 (mean -11 ± 5 W m-2), whilst top-of-the-atmosphere (TOA) values were between -2.1 and -12.0 W m-2 (mean -5 ± 3 W m-2). We have quantified the uncertainties in our calculations due to the way in which aerosols and other parameters are represented in a radiative transfer model. The largest uncertainty in the aerosol radiative effect at both the surface and the TOA comes from the spectral resolution of the information used in the radiative transfer model (˜ 17 %) and the aerosol description (composition and size distribution) used in the Mie calculations of the aerosol optical properties included in the radiative transfer model (˜ 7 %). The aerosol radiative effect at the TOA is also highly sensitive to the surface albedo (˜ 12 %).

GAPPARD: a computationally efficient method of approximating gap-scale disturbance in vegetation models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scherstjanoi, M.; Kaplan, J. O.; Thürig, E.; Lischke, H.

2013-02-01

Models of vegetation dynamics that are designed for application at spatial scales larger than individual forest gaps suffer from several limitations. Typically, either a population average approximation is used that results in unrealistic tree allometry and forest stand structure, or models have a high computational demand because they need to simulate both a series of age-based cohorts and a number of replicate patches to account for stochastic gap-scale disturbances. The detail required by the latter method increases the number of calculations by two to three orders of magnitude compared to the less realistic population average approach. In an effort to increase the efficiency of dynamic vegetation models without sacrificing realism, and to explore patterns of spatial scaling in forests, we developed a new method for simulating stand-replacing disturbances that is both accurate and 10-50x faster than approaches that use replicate patches. The GAPPARD (approximating GAP model results with a Probabilistic Approach to account for stand Replacing Disturbances) method works by postprocessing the output of deterministic, undisturbed simulations of a cohort-based vegetation model by deriving the distribution of patch ages at any point in time on the basis of a disturbance probability. With this distribution, the expected value of any output variable can be calculated from the output values of the deterministic undisturbed run at the time corresponding to the patch age. To account for temporal changes in model forcing, e.g., as a result of climate change, GAPPARD performs a series of deterministic simulations and interpolates between the results in the postprocessing step. We integrated the GAPPARD method in the forest models LPJ-GUESS and TreeM-LPJ, and evaluated these in a series of simulations along an altitudinal transect of an inner-alpine valley. With GAPPARD applied to LPJ-GUESS results were insignificantly different from the output of the original model LPJ-GUESS using 100 replicate patches, but simulation time was reduced by approximately the factor 10. Our new method is therefore highly suited rapidly approximating LPJ-GUESS results, and provides the opportunity for future studies over large spatial domains, allows easier parameterization of tree species, faster identification of areas of interesting simulation results, and comparisons with large-scale datasets and forest models.

Age and metallicity effects in single stellar populations: application to M 31 clusters.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Freitas Pacheco, J. A.

1997-03-01

We have recently calculated (Borges et al. 1995AJ....110.2408B) integrated metallicity indices for single stellar populations (SSP). Effects of age, metallicity and abundances were taken into account. In particular, the explicit dependence of the indices Mg_2_ and NaD respectively on the ratios [Mg/Fe] and [Na/Fe] was included in the calibration. We report in this work an application of those models to a sample of 12 globular clusters in M 31. A fitting procedure was used to obtain age, metallicity and the [Mg/Fe] ratio for each object, which best reproduce the data. The mean age of the sample is 15+/-2.8Gyr and the mean [Mg/Fe] ratio is 0.35+/-0.10. These values and the derived metallicity spread are comparable to those found in galactic counterparts.

The prospect of modern thermomechanics in structural integrity calculations of large-scale pressure vessels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fekete, Tamás

2018-05-01

Structural integrity calculations play a crucial role in designing large-scale pressure vessels. Used in the electric power generation industry, these kinds of vessels undergo extensive safety analyses and certification procedures before deemed feasible for future long-term operation. The calculations are nowadays directed and supported by international standards and guides based on state-of-the-art results of applied research and technical development. However, their ability to predict a vessel's behavior under accidental circumstances after long-term operation is largely limited by the strong dependence of the analysis methodology on empirical models that are correlated to the behavior of structural materials and their changes during material aging. Recently a new scientific engineering paradigm, structural integrity has been developing that is essentially a synergistic collaboration between a number of scientific and engineering disciplines, modeling, experiments and numerics. Although the application of the structural integrity paradigm highly contributed to improving the accuracy of safety evaluations of large-scale pressure vessels, the predictive power of the analysis methodology has not yet improved significantly. This is due to the fact that already existing structural integrity calculation methodologies are based on the widespread and commonly accepted 'traditional' engineering thermal stress approach, which is essentially based on the weakly coupled model of thermomechanics and fracture mechanics. Recently, a research has been initiated in MTA EK with the aim to review and evaluate current methodologies and models applied in structural integrity calculations, including their scope of validity. The research intends to come to a better understanding of the physical problems that are inherently present in the pool of structural integrity problems of reactor pressure vessels, and to ultimately find a theoretical framework that could serve as a well-grounded theoretical foundation for a new modeling framework of structural integrity. This paper presents the first findings of the research project.

Stiffness of the endplate boundary layer and endplate surface topography are associated with brittleness of human whole vertebral bodies

PubMed Central

Nekkanty, Srikant; Yerramshetty, Janardhan; Kim, Do-Gyoon; Zauel, Roger; Johnson, Evan; Cody, Dianna D.; Yeni, Yener N.

2013-01-01

Stress magnitude and variability as estimated from large scale finite element (FE) analyses have been associated with compressive strength of human vertebral cancellous cores but these relationships have not been explored for whole vertebral bodies. In this study, the objectives were to investigate the relationship of FE-calculated stress distribution parameters with experimentally determined strength, stiffness, and displacement based ductility measures in human whole vertebral bodies, investigate the effect of endplate loading conditions on vertebral stiffness, strength, and ductility and test the hypothesis that endplate topography affects vertebral ductility and stress distributions. Eighteen vertebral bodies (T6-L3 levels; 4 female and 5 male cadavers, aged 40-98 years) were scanned using a flat panel CT system and followed with axial compression testing with Wood’s metal as filler material to maintain flat boundaries between load plates and specimens. FE models were constructed using reconstructed CT images and filler material was added digitally. Two different FE models with different filler material modulus simulating Wood’s metal and intervertebral disc (W-layer and D-layer models) were used. Element material modulus to cancellous bone was based on image gray value. Average, standard deviation, and coefficient of variation of von Mises stress in vertebral bone for W-layer and D-layer models and also the ratios of FE parameters from the two models (W/D) were calculated. Inferior and superior endplate surface topographical distribution parameters were calculated. Experimental stiffness, maximum load and work to fracture had the highest correlation with FE-calculated stiffness while experimental ductility measures had highest correlations with FE-calculated average von Mises stress and W-layer to D-layer stiffness ratio. Endplate topography of the vertebra was also associated with its structural ductility and the distribution parameter that best explained this association was kurtosis of inferior endplate topography. Our results indicate that endplate topography variations may provide insight into the mechanisms responsible for vertebral fractures. PMID:20633709

Personalized Prediction of Psychosis: External validation of the NAPLS2 Psychosis Risk Calculator with the EDIPPP project

PubMed Central

Carrión, Ricardo E.; Cornblatt, Barbara A.; Burton, Cynthia Z.; Tso, Ivy F; Auther, Andrea; Adelsheim, Steven; Calkins, Roderick; Carter, Cameron S.; Niendam, Tara; Taylor, Stephan F.; McFarlane, William R.

2016-01-01

Objective In the current issue, Cannon and colleagues, as part of the second phase of the North American Prodrome Longitudinal Study (NAPLS2), report on a risk calculator for the individualized prediction of developing a psychotic disorder in a 2-year period. The present study represents an external validation of the NAPLS2 psychosis risk calculator using an independent sample of subjects at clinical high risk for psychosis collected as part of the Early Detection, Intervention, and Prevention of Psychosis Program (EDIPPP). Methods 176 subjects with follow-up (from the total EDIPPP sample of 210) rated as clinical high-risk (CHR) based on the Structured Interview for Prodromal Syndromes were used to construct a new prediction model with the 6 significant predictor variables in the NAPLS2 psychosis risk calculator (unusual thoughts, suspiciousness, Symbol Coding, verbal learning, social functioning decline, baseline age, and family history). Discrimination performance was assessed with the area under the receiver operating curve (AUC). The NAPLS2 risk calculator was then used to generate a psychosis risk estimate for each case in the external validation sample. Results The external validation model showed good discrimination, with an AUC of 79% (95% CI 0.644–0.937). In addition, the personalized risk generated by the NAPLS calculator provided a solid estimation of the actual conversion outcome in the validation sample. Conclusions In the companion papers in this issue, two independent samples of CHR subjects converge to validate the NAPLS2 psychosis risk calculator. This prediction calculator represents a meaningful step towards early intervention and personalized treatment of psychotic disorders. PMID:27363511

Individualized decision-making in IVF: calculating the chances of pregnancy.

PubMed

van Loendersloot, L L; van Wely, M; Repping, S; Bossuyt, P M M; van der Veen, F

2013-11-01

Are we able to develop a model to calculate the chances of pregnancy prior to the start of the first IVF cycle as well as after one or more failed cycles? Our prediction model enables the accurate individualized calculation of the probability of an ongoing pregnancy with IVF. To improve counselling, patient selection and clinical decision-making in IVF, a number of prediction models have been developed. These models are of limited use as they were developed before current clinical and laboratory protocols were established. This was a cohort study. The development set included 2621 cycles in 1326 couples who had been treated with IVF or ICSI between January 2001 and July 2009. The validation set included additional data from 515 cycles in 440 couples treated between August 2009 and April 2011. The outcome of interest was an ongoing pregnancy after transfer of fresh or frozen-thawed embryos from the same stimulated IVF cycle. If a couple became pregnant after an IVF/ICSI cycle, the follow-up was at a gestational age of at least 11 weeks. Women treated with IVF or ICSI between January 2001 and April 2011 in a university hospital. IVF/ICSI cycles were excluded in the case of oocyte or embryo donation, surgically retrieved spermatozoa, patients positive for human immunodeficiency virus, modified natural IVF and cycles cancelled owing to poor ovarian stimulation, ovarian hyperstimulation syndrome or other unexpected medical or non-medical reasons. Thirteen variables were included in the final prediction model. For all cycles, these were female age, duration of subfertility, previous ongoing pregnancy, male subfertility, diminished ovarian reserve, endometriosis, basal FSH and number of failed IVF cycles. After the first cycle: fertilization, number of embryos, mean morphological score per Day 3 embryo, presence of 8-cell embryos on Day 3 and presence of morulae on Day 3 were also included. In validation, the model had moderate discriminative capacity (c-statistic 0.68, 95% confidence interval: 0.63-0.73) but calibrated well, with a range from 0.01 to 0.56 in calculated probabilities. In our study, the outcome of interest was ongoing pregnancy. Live birth may have been a more appropriate outcome, although only 1-2% of all ongoing pregnancies result in late miscarriage or stillbirth. The model was based on data from a single centre. The IVF model presented here is the first to calculate the chances of an ongoing pregnancy with IVF, both for the first cycle and after any number of failed cycles. The generalizability of the model to other clinics has to be evaluated more extensively in future studies (geographical validation). Centres with higher or lower success rates could use the model, after recalibration, by adjusting the intercept to reflect the IVF success rates in their centre. This project was funded by the NutsOhra foundation (Grant 1004-179). The NutsOhra foundation had no role in the development of our study, in the collection, analysis and interpretation of data; in writing of the manuscript, and in the decision to submit the manuscript for publication. There were no competing interests.

Mortality of breast cancer in Taiwan, 1971-2010: temporal changes and an age-period-cohort analysis.

PubMed

Ho, M-L; Hsiao, Y-H; Su, S-Y; Chou, M-C; Liaw, Y-P

2015-01-01

The current paper describes the age, period and cohort effects on breast cancer mortality in Taiwan. Female breast cancer mortality data were collected from the Taiwan death registries for 1971-2010. The annual percentage changes, age- standardised mortality rates (ASMR) and age-period-cohort model were calculated. The mortality rates increased with advancing age groups when fixing the period. The percentage change in the breast cancer mortality rate increased from 54.79% at aged 20-44 years, to 149.78% in those aged 45-64 years (between 1971-75 and 2006-10). The mortality rates in the 45-64 age group increased steadily from 1971 to 1975 and 2006-10. The 1951 birth cohorts (actual birth cohort; 1947-55) showed peak mortalities in both the 50-54 and 45-49 age groups. We found that the 1951 birth cohorts had the greatest mortality risk from breast cancer. This might be attributed to the DDT that was used in large amounts to prevent deaths from malaria in Taiwan. However, future researches require DDT data to evaluate the association between breast cancer and DDT use.

Absolute parameters for AI Phoenicis using WASP photometry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirkby-Kent, J. A.; Maxted, P. F. L.; Serenelli, A. M.; Turner, O. D.; Evans, D. F.; Anderson, D. R.; Hellier, C.; West, R. G.

2016-06-01

Context. AI Phe is a double-lined, detached eclipsing binary, in which a K-type sub-giant star totally eclipses its main-sequence companion every 24.6 days. This configuration makes AI Phe ideal for testing stellar evolutionary models. Difficulties in obtaining a complete lightcurve mean the precision of existing radii measurements could be improved. Aims: Our aim is to improve the precision of the radius measurements for the stars in AI Phe using high-precision photometry from the Wide Angle Search for Planets (WASP), and use these improved radius measurements together with estimates of the masses, temperatures and composition of the stars to place constraints on the mixing length, helium abundance and age of the system. Methods: A best-fit ebop model is used to obtain lightcurve parameters, with their standard errors calculated using a prayer-bead algorithm. These were combined with previously published spectroscopic orbit results, to obtain masses and radii. A Bayesian method is used to estimate the age of the system for model grids with different mixing lengths and helium abundances. Results: The radii are found to be R1 = 1.835 ± 0.014 R⊙, R2 = 2.912 ± 0.014 R⊙ and the masses M1 = 1.1973 ± 0.0037 M⊙, M2 = 1.2473 ± 0.0039 M⊙. From the best-fit stellar models we infer a mixing length of 1.78, a helium abundance of YAI = 0.26 +0.02-0.01 and an age of 4.39 ± 0.32 Gyr. Times of primary minimum show the period of AI Phe is not constant. Currently, there are insufficient data to determine the cause of this variation. Conclusions: Improved precision in the masses and radii have improved the age estimate, and allowed the mixing length and helium abundance to be constrained. The eccentricity is now the largest source of uncertainty in calculating the masses. Further work is needed to characterise the orbit of AI Phe. Obtaining more binaries with parameters measured to a similar level of precision would allow us to test for relationships between helium abundance and mixing length.

Burden of influenza-associated deaths in the Americas, 2002-2008.

PubMed

Cheng, Po-Yung; Palekar, Rakhee; Azziz-Baumgartner, Eduardo; Iuliano, Danielle; Alencar, Airlane P; Bresee, Joseph; Oliva, Otavio; de Souza, Maria de Fatima Marinho; Widdowson, Marc-Alain

2015-08-01

Influenza disease is a vaccine-preventable cause of morbidity and mortality. The Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) region has invested in influenza vaccines, but few estimates of influenza burden exist to justify these investments. We estimated influenza-associated deaths for 35 PAHO countries during 2002-2008. Annually, PAHO countries report registered deaths. We used respiratory and circulatory (R&C) codes from seven countries with distinct influenza seasonality and high-quality mortality data to estimate influenza-associated mortality rates by age group (0-64, 65-74, and ≥ 75 years) with a Serfling regression model or a negative binomial model. We calculated the percent of all R&C deaths attributable to influenza by age group in these countries (etiologic fraction) and applied it to the age-specific mortality in 13 countries with good mortality data but poorly defined seasonality. Lastly, we grouped the remaining 15 countries into WHO mortality strata and applied the age and mortality stratum-specific rate of influenza mortality calculated from the 20 countries. We summed each country's estimate to arrive at an average total annual number and rate of influenza deaths in the Americas. For the 35 PAHO countries, we estimated an annual mean influenza-associated mortality rate of 2·1/100,000 among <65-year olds, 31·9/100 000 among those 65-74 years, and 161·8/100,000 among those ≥ 75 years. We estimated that annually between 40,880 and 160,270 persons (mean, 85,100) die of influenza illness in the PAHO region. Influenza remains an important cause of mortality in the Americas. © 2015 The Authors. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The association between life course socioeconomic position and life satisfaction in different welfare states: European comparative study of individuals in early old age

PubMed Central

Niedzwiedz, Claire L.; Katikireddi, Srinivasa Vittal; Pell, Jill P.; Mitchell, Richard

2014-01-01

Background: whether socioeconomic position over the life course influences the wellbeing of older people similarly in different societies is not known. Objective: to investigate the magnitude of socioeconomic inequalities in life satisfaction among individuals in early old age and the influence of the welfare state regime on the associations. Design: comparative study using data from Wave 2 and SHARELIFE, the retrospective Wave of the Survey of Health, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe (SHARE), collected during 2006–07 and 2008–09, respectively. Setting: thirteen European countries representing four welfare regimes (Southern, Scandinavian, Post-communist and Bismarckian). Subjects: a total of 17,697 individuals aged 50–75 years. Methods: slope indices of inequality (SIIs) were calculated for the association between life course socioeconomic position (measured by the number of books in childhood, education level and current wealth) and life satisfaction. Single level linear regression models stratified by welfare regime and multilevel regression models, containing interaction terms between socioeconomic position and welfare regime type, were calculated. Results: socioeconomic inequalities in life satisfaction were present in all welfare regimes. Educational inequalities in life satisfaction were narrowest in Scandinavian and Bismarckian regimes among both genders. Post-communist and Southern countries experienced both lower life satisfaction and larger socioeconomic inequalities in life satisfaction, using most measures of socioeconomic position. Current wealth was associated with large inequalities in life satisfaction across all regimes. Conclusions: Scandinavian and Bismarckian countries exhibited narrower socioeconomic inequalities in life satisfaction. This suggests that more generous welfare states help to produce a more equitable distribution of wellbeing among older people. PMID:24476800

Age estimation based on pulp chamber volume of first molars from cone-beam computed tomography images.

PubMed

Ge, Zhi-pu; Ma, Ruo-han; Li, Gang; Zhang, Ji-zong; Ma, Xu-chen

2015-08-01

To establish a method that can be used for human age estimation on the basis of pulp chamber volume of first molars and to identify whether the method is good enough for age estimation in real human cases. CBCT images of 373 maxillary first molars and 372 mandibular first molars were collected to establish the mathematical model from 190 female and 213 male patients whose age between 12 and 69 years old. The inclusion criteria of the first molars were: no caries, no excessive tooth wear, no dental restorations, no artifacts due to metal restorative materials present in adjacent teeth, and no pulpal calcification. All the CBCT images were acquired with a CBCT unit NewTom VG (Quantitative Radiology, Verona, Italy) and reconstructed with a voxel-size of 0.15mm. The images were subsequently exported as DICOM data sets and imported into an open source 3D image semi-automatic segmenting and voxel-counting software ITK-SNAP 2.4 for the calculation of pulp chamber volumes. A logarithmic regression analysis was conducted with age as dependent variable and pulp chamber volume as independent variables to establish a mathematical model for the human age estimation. To identify the precision and accuracy of the model for human age estimation, another 104 maxillary first molars and 103 mandibular first molars from 55 female and 57 male patients whose age between 12 and 67 years old were collected, too. Mean absolute error and root mean square error between the actual age and estimated age were used to determine the precision and accuracy of the mathematical model. The study was approved by the Institutional Review Board of Peking University School and Hospital of Stomatology. A mathematical model was suggested for: AGE=117.691-26.442×ln (pulp chamber volume). The regression was statistically significant (p=0.000<0.01). The coefficient of determination (R(2)) was 0.564. There is a mean absolute error of 8.122 and root mean square error of 5.603 between the actual age and estimated age for all the tested teeth. The pulp chamber volume of first molar is a useful index for the estimation of human age with reasonable precision and accuracy. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Logistic model analysis of neurological findings in Minamata disease and the predicting index.

PubMed

Nakagawa, Masanori; Kodama, Tomoko; Akiba, Suminori; Arimura, Kimiyoshi; Wakamiya, Junji; Futatsuka, Makoto; Kitano, Takao; Osame, Mitsuhiro

2002-01-01

To establish a statistical diagnostic method to identify patients with Minamata disease (MD) considering factors of aging and sex, we analyzed the neurological findings in MD patients, inhabitants in a methylmercury polluted (MP) area, and inhabitants in a non-MP area. We compared the neurological findings in MD patients and inhabitants aged more than 40 years in the non-MP area. Based on the different frequencies of the neurological signs in the two groups, we devised the following formula to calculate the predicting index for MD: predicting index = 1/(1+e(-x)) x 100 (The value of x was calculated using the regression coefficients of each neurological finding obtained from logistic analysis. The index 100 indicated MD, and 0, non-MD). Using this method, we found that 100% of male and 98% of female patients with MD (95 cases) gave predicting indices higher than 95. Five percent of the aged inhabitants in the MP area (598 inhabitants) and 0.2% of those in the non-MP area (558 inhabitants) gave predicting indices of 50 or higher. Our statistical diagnostic method for MD was useful in distinguishing MD patients from healthy elders based on their neurological findings.

Compatibility of household budget and individual nutrition surveys: results of the preliminary analysis.

PubMed

Naska, A; Trichopoulou, A

2001-08-01

The EU-supported project entitled: "Compatibility of household budget and individual nutrition surveys and disparities in food habits" aimed at comparing individualised household budget survey (HBS) data with food consumption values derived from individual nutrition surveys (INS). The present paper provides a brief description of the methodology applied for rendering the datasets at a comparable level. Results of the preliminary evaluation of their compatibility are also presented. A non parametric modelling approach was used for the individualisation (age and gender-specific) of the food data collected at household level, in the context of the national HBSs and the bootstrap technique was used for the derivation of 95% confidence intervals. For each food group, INS and HBS-derived mean values were calculated for twenty-four research units, jointly defined by country (four countries involved), gender (male, female) and age (younger, middle-aged and older). Pearson correlation coefficients were calculated. The results of this preliminary analysis show that there is considerable scope in the nutritional information derived from HBSs. Additional and more sophisticated work is however required, putting particular emphasis on addressing limitations present in both surveys and on deriving reliable individual consumption point and interval estimates, on the basis of HBS data.

Does community deprivation determine longevity after the age of 75? A cross-national analysis.

PubMed

Ribeiro, Ana Isabel; Krainski, Elias Teixeira; Carvalho, Marilia Sá; Launoy, Guy; Pornet, Carole; de Pina, Maria de Fátima

2018-05-01

Analyze the association between socioeconomic deprivation and old-age survival in Europe, and investigate whether it varies by country and gender. Our study incorporated five countries (Portugal, Spain, France, Italy, and England). A 10-year survival rate expressing the proportion of population aged 75-84 years who reached 85-94 years old was calculated at area-level for 2001-11. To estimate associations, we used Bayesian spatial models and a transnational measure of deprivation. Attributable/prevention fractions were calculated. Overall, there was a significant association between deprivation and survival in both genders. In England that association was stronger, following a dose-response relation. Although lesser in magnitude, significant associations were observed in Spain and Italy, whereas in France and Portugal these were even weaker. The elimination of socioeconomic differences between areas would increase survival by 7.1%, and even a small reduction in socioeconomic differences would lead to a 1.6% increase. Socioeconomic deprivation was associated with survival among older adults at ecological-level, although with varying magnitude across countries. Reasons for such cross-country differences should be sought. Our results emphasize the importance of reducing socioeconomic differences between areas.

Comparison of FDTD-calculated specific absorption rate in adults and children when using a mobile phone at 900 and 1800 MHz

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martínez-Búrdalo, M.; Martín, A.; Anguiano, M.; Villar, R.

2004-01-01

In this paper, the specific absorption rate (SAR) in scaled human head models is analysed to study possible differences between SAR in the heads of adults and children and for assessment of compliance with the international safety guidelines, while using a mobile phone. The finite-difference time-domain method (FDTD) has been used for calculating SAR values for models of both children and adults, at 900 and 1800 MHz. Maximum 1 g averaged SAR (SAR1 g) and maximum 10 g averaged SAR (SAR10 g) have been calculated in adults and scaled head models for comparison and assessment of compliance with ANSI/IEEE and European guidelines. Results show that peak SAR1 g and peak SAR10 g all trend downwards with decreasing head size but as head size decreases, the percentage of energy absorbed in the brain increases. So, higher SAR in children's brains can be expected depending on whether the thickness of their skulls and surrounding tissues actually depends on age. The SAR in eyes of different sizes, as a critical organ, has also been studied and very similar distributions for the full size and the scaled models have been obtained. Standard limits can only be exceeded in the unpractical situation where the antenna is located at a very short distance in front of the eye.

The contemporary degassing rate of 40Ar from the solid Earth.

PubMed

Bender, Michael L; Barnett, Bruce; Dreyfus, Gabrielle; Jouzel, Jean; Porcelli, Don

2008-06-17

Knowledge of the outgassing history of radiogenic (40)Ar, derived over geologic time from the radioactive decay of (40)K, contributes to our understanding of the geodynamic history of the planet and the origin of volatiles on Earth's surface. The (40)Ar inventory of the atmosphere equals total (40)Ar outgassing during Earth history. Here, we report the current rate of (40)Ar outgassing, accessed by measuring the Ar isotope composition of trapped gases in samples of the Vostok and Dome C deep ice cores dating back to almost 800 ka. The modern outgassing rate (1.1 +/- 0.1 x 10(8) mol/yr) is in the range of values expected by summing outgassing from the continental crust and the upper mantle, as estimated from simple calculations and models. The measured outgassing rate is also of interest because it allows dating of air trapped in ancient ice core samples of unknown age, although uncertainties are large (+/-180 kyr for a single sample or +/-11% of the calculated age, whichever is greater).

Calculation of brain atrophy using computed tomography and a new atrophy measurement tool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bin Zahid, Abdullah; Mikheev, Artem; Yang, Andrew Il; Samadani, Uzma; Rusinek, Henry

2015-03-01

Purpose: To determine if brain atrophy can be calculated by performing volumetric analysis on conventional computed tomography (CT) scans in spite of relatively low contrast for this modality. Materials & Method: CTs for 73 patients from the local Veteran Affairs database were selected. Exclusion criteria: AD, NPH, tumor, and alcohol abuse. Protocol: conventional clinical acquisition (Toshiba; helical, 120 kVp, X-ray tube current 300mA, slice thickness 3-5mm). Locally developed, automatic algorithm was used to segment intracranial cavity (ICC) using (a) white matter seed (b) constrained growth, limited by inner skull layer and (c) topological connectivity. ICC was further segmented into CSF and brain parenchyma using a threshold of 16 Hu. Results: Age distribution: 25-95yrs; (Mean 67+/-17.5yrs.). Significant correlation was found between age and CSF/ICC(r=0.695, p<0.01 2-tailed). A quadratic model (y=0.06-0.001x+2.56x10-5x2 ; where y=CSF/ICC and x=age) was a better fit to data (r=0.716, p < 0.01). This is in agreement with MRI literature. For example, Smith et al. found annual CSF/ICC increase in 58 - 94.5 y.o. individuals to be 0.2%/year, whereas our data, restricted to the same age group yield 0.3%/year(0.2-0.4%/yrs. 95%C.I.). Slightly increased atrophy among elderly VA patients is attributable to the presence of other comorbidities. Conclusion: Brain atrophy can be reliably calculated using automated software and conventional CT. Compared to MRI, CT is more widely available, cheaper, and less affected by head motion due to ~100 times shorter scan time. Work is in progress to improve the precision of the measurements, possibly leading to assessment of longitudinal changes within the patient.

Normal reference values for bladder wall thickness on CT in a healthy population.

PubMed

Fananapazir, Ghaneh; Kitich, Aleksandar; Lamba, Ramit; Stewart, Susan L; Corwin, Michael T

2018-02-01

To determine normal bladder wall thickness on CT in patients without bladder disease. Four hundred and nineteen patients presenting for trauma with normal CTs of the abdomen and pelvis were included in our retrospective study. Bladder wall thickness was assessed, and bladder volume was measured using both the ellipsoid formula and an automated technique. Patient age, gender, and body mass index were recorded. Linear regression models were created to account for bladder volume, age, gender, and body mass index, and the multiple correlation coefficient with bladder wall thickness was computed. Bladder volume and bladder wall thickness were log-transformed to achieve approximate normality and homogeneity of variance. Variables that did not contribute substantively to the model were excluded, and a parsimonious model was created and the multiple correlation coefficient was calculated. Expected bladder wall thickness was estimated for different bladder volumes, and 1.96 standard deviation above expected provided the upper limit of normal on the log scale. Age, gender, and bladder volume were associated with bladder wall thickness (p = 0.049, 0.024, and < 0.001, respectively). The linear regression model had an R 2 of 0.52. Age and gender were negligible in contribution to the model, and a parsimonious model using only volume was created for both the ellipsoid and automated volumes (R 2  = 0.52 and 0.51, respectively). Bladder wall thickness correlates with bladder wall volume. The study provides reference bladder wall thicknesses on CT utilizing both the ellipsoid formula and automated bladder volumes.

Body fat does not affect venous bubble formation after air dives of moderate severity: theory and experiment.

PubMed

Schellart, Nico A M; van Rees Vellinga, Tjeerd P; van Hulst, Rob A

2013-03-01

For over a century, studies on body fat (BF) in decompression sickness and venous gas embolism of divers have been inconsistent. A major problem is that age, BF, and maximal oxygen consumption (Vo2max) show high multicollinearity. Using the Bühlmann model with eight parallel compartments, preceded by a blood compartment in series, nitrogen tensions and loads were calculated with a 40 min/3.1 bar (absolute) profile. Compared with Haldanian models, the new model showed a substantial delay in N2 uptake and (especially) release. One hour after surfacing, an increase of 14-28% in BF resulted in a whole body increase of the N2 load of 51%, but in only 15% in the blood compartment. This would result in an increase in the bubble grade of only 0.01 Kisman-Masurel (KM) units at the scale near KM = I-. This outcome was tested indirectly by a dry dive simulation (air breathing) with 53 male divers with a small range in age and Vo2max to suppress multicollinearity. BF was determined with the four-skinfold method. Precordial Doppler bubble grades determined at 40, 80, 120, and 160 min after surfacing were used to calculate the Kisman Integrated Severity Score and were also transformed to the logarithm of the number of bubbles/cm(2) (logB). The highest of the four scores yielded logB = -1.78, equivalent to KM = I-. All statistical outcomes of partial correlations with BF were nonsignificant. These results support the model outcomes. Although this and our previous study suggest that BF does not influence venous gas embolism (Schellart NAM, van Rees Vellinga TP, van Dijk FH, Sterk W. Aviat Space Environ Med 83: 951-957, 2012), more studies with different profiles under various conditions are needed to establish whether BF remains (together with age and Vo2max) a basic physical characteristic or will become less important for the medical examination and for risk assessment.

The age curves of sulfur and oxygen isotopes in marine sulfate and their mutual interpretation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Claypool, George E.; Holser, William T.; Kaplan, Isaac R.; Sakai, Hitoshi; Zak, Israel

1980-01-01

Three hundred new samples of marine evaporite sulfate, of world-wide distribution, were analyzed for δ34S, and 60 of these also for δ18O in the sulfate ion. Detailed δ34S age curves for Tertiary—Cretaceous, Permian—Pennsylvanian, Devonian, Cambrian and Proterozoic times document large variations in δ34S. A summary curve forδ18O also shows definite variations, some at different times than δ34S, and always smaller. The measured δ34S and δ18O correspond to variations in these isotopes in sulfate of the world ocean surface. The variations of δ18O are controlled by input and output fluxes of sulfur in the ocean, three of which are the same that control δ34S: deposition and erosion of sulfate, and deposition of sulfide. Erosion of sulfide differs in its effect on the S and O systems. δ18O in the sulfate does not seem to be measurably affected by equilibration with either seawater or with subsurface waters after crystallization. In principle, the simultaneous application of both δ34S and δ18O age curves should help reduce the number of assumptions in calculations of the cycles of sulfur and oxygen through geological time, and a new model involving symmetrical fluxes is introduced here to take advantage of the oxygen data. However, all previously published models as well as this one lead to anomalies, such as unreasonable calcium or oxygen depletions in the ocean—atmosphere system. In addition, most models are incapable of reproducing the sharp rises of the δ34S curve in the late Proterozoic, the Devonian and the Triassic which would be the result of unreasonably fast net sulfide deposition. This fast depletion could result from an ocean that has not always been mixed (as previously assumed in all model calculations).

Age at stroke: temporal trends in stroke incidence in a large, biracial population.

PubMed

Kissela, Brett M; Khoury, Jane C; Alwell, Kathleen; Moomaw, Charles J; Woo, Daniel; Adeoye, Opeolu; Flaherty, Matthew L; Khatri, Pooja; Ferioli, Simona; De Los Rios La Rosa, Felipe; Broderick, Joseph P; Kleindorfer, Dawn O

2012-10-23

We describe temporal trends in stroke incidence stratified by age from our population-based stroke epidemiology study. We hypothesized that stroke incidence in younger adults (age 20-54) increased over time, most notably between 1999 and 2005. The Greater Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky region includes an estimated population of 1.3 million. Strokes were ascertained in the population between July 1, 1993, and June 30, 1994, and in calendar years 1999 and 2005. Age-, race-, and gender-specific incidence rates with 95 confidence intervals were calculated assuming a Poisson distribution. We tested for differences in age trends over time using a mixed-model approach, with appropriate link functions. The mean age at stroke significantly decreased from 71.2 years in 1993/1994 to 69.2 years in 2005 (p < 0.0001). The proportion of all strokes under age 55 increased from 12.9% in 1993/1994 to 18.6% in 2005. Regression modeling showed a significant change over time (p = 0.002), characterized as a shift to younger strokes in 2005 compared with earlier study periods. Stroke incidence rates in those 20-54 years of age were significantly increased in both black and white patients in 2005 compared to earlier periods. We found trends toward increasing stroke incidence at younger ages. This is of great public health significance because strokes in younger patients carry the potential for greater lifetime burden of disability and because some potential contributors identified for this trend are modifiable.

The combined effect of age and basal follicle-stimulating hormone on the cost of a live birth at assisted reproductive technology.

PubMed

Henne, Melinda B; Stegmann, Barbara J; Neithardt, Adrienne B; Catherino, William H; Armstrong, Alicia Y; Kao, Tzu-Cheg; Segars, James H

2008-01-01

To predict the cost of a delivery following assisted reproductive technologies (ART). Cost analysis based on retrospective chart analysis. University-based ART program. Women aged >or=26 and

Ageing and COPD affect different domains of nutritional status: the ECCE study.

PubMed

Battaglia, S; Spatafora, M; Paglino, G; Pedone, C; Corsonello, A; Scichilone, N; Antonelli-Incalzi, R; Bellia, V

2011-06-01

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and ageing may contribute to malnutrition. We aimed to explore whether COPD and ageing determine malnutrition in different manners. 460 stable COPD outpatients (376 males and 84 females) from the Extrapulmonary Consequences of COPD in the Elderly (ECCE) study database were investigated (age 75.0±5.9 yrs; forced expiratory volume in 1 s 54.7±18.3% predicted). Nutritional status was evaluated using the Mini Nutritional Assessment® (MNA) questionnaire. From the MNA, three scores exploring the domains of the nutritional status were calculated: body composition, energy intake and body functionality scores. Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) stages were negatively correlated with five MNA items exploring mobility, patient's perception of own nutrition and health status, and arm and calf circumferences (lowest Spearman's rho (rs)=-0.011; highest p=0.039). GOLD stages were independently correlated with body composition and body functionality scores (model r2=0.073). Age was negatively correlated with four MNA items exploring loss of appetite, fluid intake, mobility and autonomy in daily life (lowest rs=-0.013; highest p=0.030). Age was independently correlated with body functionality score (model r2=0.037). Severe COPD and ageing are independent and probably concurrent conditions leading to malnutrition. The MNA questionnaire allows a valuable insight into the complexity of components of nutritional status and may provide useful clues for treatment strategies.

Comprehensive Modeling of Temperature-Dependent Degradation Mechanisms in Lithium Iron Phosphate Batteries

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schimpe, Michael; von Kuepach, M. E.; Naumann, M.

For reliable lifetime predictions of lithium-ion batteries, models for cell degradation are required. A comprehensive semi-empirical model based on a reduced set of internal cell parameters and physically justified degradation functions for the capacity loss is developed and presented for a commercial lithium iron phosphate/graphite cell. One calendar and several cycle aging effects are modeled separately. Emphasis is placed on the varying degradation at different temperatures. Degradation mechanisms for cycle aging at high and low temperatures as well as the increased cycling degradation at high state of charge are calculated separately. For parameterization, a lifetime test study is conducted includingmore » storage and cycle tests. Additionally, the model is validated through a dynamic current profile based on real-world application in a stationary energy storage system revealing the accuracy. Tests for validation are continued for up to 114 days after the longest parametrization tests. In conclusion, the model error for the cell capacity loss in the application-based tests is at the end of testing below 1% of the original cell capacity and the maximum relative model error is below 21%.« less

Comprehensive Modeling of Temperature-Dependent Degradation Mechanisms in Lithium Iron Phosphate Batteries

DOE PAGES

Schimpe, Michael; von Kuepach, M. E.; Naumann, M.; ...

2018-01-12

For reliable lifetime predictions of lithium-ion batteries, models for cell degradation are required. A comprehensive semi-empirical model based on a reduced set of internal cell parameters and physically justified degradation functions for the capacity loss is developed and presented for a commercial lithium iron phosphate/graphite cell. One calendar and several cycle aging effects are modeled separately. Emphasis is placed on the varying degradation at different temperatures. Degradation mechanisms for cycle aging at high and low temperatures as well as the increased cycling degradation at high state of charge are calculated separately. For parameterization, a lifetime test study is conducted includingmore » storage and cycle tests. Additionally, the model is validated through a dynamic current profile based on real-world application in a stationary energy storage system revealing the accuracy. Tests for validation are continued for up to 114 days after the longest parametrization tests. In conclusion, the model error for the cell capacity loss in the application-based tests is at the end of testing below 1% of the original cell capacity and the maximum relative model error is below 21%.« less

UK Renal Registry 15th annual report: Chapter 5 survival and causes of death of UK adult patients on renal replacement therapy in 2011: national and centre-specific analyses.

PubMed

Steenkamp, Retha; Shaw, Catriona; Feest, Terry

2013-01-01

These analyses examine a) survival from the start of renal replacement therapy (RRT) based on the total incident UK RRT population reported to the UK Renal Registry, b) survival of prevalent patients. Changes in survival between 1997 and 2011 are also reported. Survival was calculated for both incident and prevalent patients on RRT and compared between the UK countries after adjustment for age. Survival of incident patients (starting RRT during 2010) was calculated both from the start of RRT and from 90 days after starting RRT, both with and without censoring at transplantation. Prevalent dialysis patients were censored at transplantation; this means that the patient is considered alive up to the point of transplantation, but the patient's status post-transplant is not considered. Both Kaplan-Meier and Cox adjusted models were used to calculate survival. Causes of death were analysed for both groups. The relative risk of death was calculated compared with the general UK population. The unadjusted 1 year after 90 day survival for patients starting RRT in 2010 was 87.3%, representing an increase from the previous year (86.6%). In incident patients aged 18-64 years, the unadjusted 1 year survival had risen from 86.0% in patients starting RRT in 1997 to 92.6% in patients starting RRT in 2010 and for those aged ≥65 it had increased from 63.9% to 77.0% over the same period. The age-adjusted one year survival (adjusted to age 60) of prevalent dialysis patients increased from 88.1% in the 2001 cohort to 89.8% in the 2010 cohort. Prevalent diabetic patient one year survival rose from 82.1% in the 2002 cohort to 84.7% in the 2010 cohort. The age-standardised mortality ratio for prevalent RRT patients compared with the general population was 18 for age group 30-34 and 2.5 at age 85+ years. In the prevalent RRT dialysis population, cardiovascular disease accounted for 22% of deaths, infection and treatment withdrawal 18% each and 25% were recorded as other causes of death. Treatment withdrawal was a more frequent cause of death in those incident patients aged ≥65 than in younger patients. The median life years remaining for a 25-29 year old on RRT was 18 years and approximately three years for a 75+ year old. Survival of patients starting RRT has improved in the 2010 incident cohort. The relative risk of death on RRT compared with the general population has fallen since 2001. Copyright © 2013 S. Karger AG, Basel.

An age-structured model for the coupled dynamics of HIV and HSV-2.

PubMed

Kapitanov, Georgi; Alvey, Christina; Vogt-Geisse, Katia; Feng, Zhilan

2015-08-01

Evidence suggests a strong correlation between the prevalence of HSV-2 (genital herpes) and the perseverance of the HIV epidemic. HSV-2 is an incurable viral infection, characterized by periodic reactivation. We construct a model of the co-infection dynamics between the two diseases by incorporating a time-since-infection variable to track the alternating periods of infectiousness of HSV-2. The model considers only heterosexual relationships and distinguishes three population groups: males, general population females, and female sex workers. We calculate the basic reproduction numbers for each disease that provide threshold conditions, which determine whether a disease dies out or becomes endemic in the absence of the other disease. We also derive the invasion reproduction numbers that determine whether or not a disease can invade into a population in which the other disease is endemic. The calculations of the invasion reproduction numbers suggest a new aspect in their interpretation - the class from which the initial disease carrier arises is important for understanding the invasion dynamics and biological interpretation of the expressions of the reproduction numbers. Sensitivity analysis is conducted to examine the role of model parameters in influencing the model outcomes. The results are discussed in the last section.

Network model of human aging: Frailty limits and information measures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farrell, Spencer G.; Mitnitski, Arnold B.; Rockwood, Kenneth; Rutenberg, Andrew D.

2016-11-01

Aging is associated with the accumulation of damage throughout a persons life. Individual health can be assessed by the Frailty Index (FI). The FI is calculated simply as the proportion f of accumulated age-related deficits relative to the total, leading to a theoretical maximum of f ≤1 . Observational studies have generally reported a much more stringent bound, with f ≤fmax<1 . The value of fmax in observational studies appears to be nonuniversal, but fmax≈0.7 is often reported. A previously developed network model of individual aging was unable to recover fmax<1 while retaining the other observed phenomenology of increasing f and mortality rates with age. We have developed a computationally accelerated network model that also allows us to tune the scale-free network exponent α . The network exponent α significantly affects the growth of mortality rates with age. However, we are only able to recover fmax by also introducing a deficit sensitivity parameter 1 -q , which is equivalent to a false-negative rate q . Our value of q =0.3 is comparable to finite sensitivities of age-related deficits with respect to mortality that are often reported in the literature. In light of nonzero q , we use mutual information I to provide a nonparametric measure of the predictive value of the FI with respect to individual mortality. We find that I is only modestly degraded by q <1 , and this degradation is mitigated when increasing number of deficits are included in the FI. We also find that the information spectrum, i.e., the mutual information of individual deficits versus connectivity, has an approximately power-law dependence that depends on the network exponent α . Mutual information I is therefore a useful tool for characterizing the network topology of aging populations.

Parental feeding practices associated with children's eating and weight: What are parents of toddlers and preschool children doing?

PubMed

Russell, Catherine Georgina; Haszard, Jillian J; Taylor, Rachael W; Heath, Anne-Louise M; Taylor, Barry; Campbell, Karen J

2018-05-26

Parental feeding practices are associated with children's eating behaviours and weight, yet current use of such practices lacks detailed description. This limits our understanding of which behaviours to target to promote healthy growth. We explored the frequency with which a range of parental feeding practices occurs in mothers of toddler and preschool children. Combined data from four Australasian trials of healthy feeding and growth were utilized, each using the Comprehensive Feeding Practices Questionnaire (CFPQ). Data were included from mothers of toddlers (1.3-2 years; n = 1344) and preschool children (4-6 years; n = 795). Means and standard deviations for each CFPQ dimension were calculated for the two age groups. Scores were categorised by frequency, and percentages in each category calculated. Linear regression analysis determined associations between socio-demographics and feeding practices. In both age groups, mothers reported extensive use of some CFPQ dimensions including modelling, encouraging balance and variety, and healthy food environment (between 84% and 100% reported using these practices 'usually' to 'often'). Greater variation existed for other practices including pressure to eat and restriction for health. Food as a reward and pressure to eat were used more with preschool children (M = 2.5, SD = 1.0 and M = 3.1 SD = 0.9) than with toddlers (M = 1.7, SD = 0.8 and M = 2.5 SD = 0.9). For both age groups, mothers' age, education, SEP and BMI category, or the child's BMI, sex, or age predicted use of some feeding practices. Feeding practices such as modelling and providing a healthy food environment are important, but interventions are unlikely to detect effects as most parents report following best practice. In contrast, given greater variability in reported use of other feeding practices like pressure to eat and restriction for health these constructs may be more likely to detect change. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Epidemiological survey of oral lesions in children and adolescents in a Brazilian population.

PubMed

Pessôa, Camila Porto; Alves, Técia Daltro Borges; dos Santos, Nilton César Nogueira; dos Santos, Heloísa Laís Rosário; Azevedo, Alana de Cássia Silva; dos Santos, Jean Nunes; Oliveira, Márcio Campos

2015-11-01

To identify the most frequent oral lesions in children and adolescents in Reference Units of Oral Lesions of Public Universities of Bahia, Brazil, in the period between 1996 and 2010, and estimate the association between socio-demographic factors and type of oral lesions found. Cross-sectional study using secondary data obtained from medical records, records of requests and reports of biopsies from patients aged between 0 and 19 years treated in Reference Units of Oral Lesions of Public Universities in Bahia, Brazil, in the period between 1996 and 2010. For data analysis, we used descriptive analysis of the variables, bivariate analysis by calculating the prevalence ratios (PR) to assess the association between oral lesions and gender, age and skin color, and the analysis of potential modifying and confounding effects by logistic regression modeling. To calculate the p-value of associations, we used the chi-square test, and p<0.05 was considered statistically significant. There were 360 records of patients between 0 and 19 years (8.7% of total records). The results revealed 72 different types of lesions. The most prevalent lesions were mucoceles (14.2%), fibroma (5.6%) and pyogenic granuloma (5.3%). The variable "age" was the only socio-demographic characteristics among those analyzed that showed a statistically significant association with both neoplastic and non-neoplastic lesions, according to bivariate analysis, considering the rates adjusted for potential confounders. Neoplastic lesions appeared more often in the age group 0-9 years, while the non-neoplastic lesions were more prevalent in individuals 10-19 years. There was no effect modification noted in the predictive models analyzed. The study identified the existence of a broad range of oral lesions affecting children and adolescents. Most of the lesions found were of the non-neoplastic type. The age of individuals was associated with the type of oral lesion found. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Simulation of groundwater flow in the shallow aquifer system of the Delmarva Peninsula, Maryland and Delaware

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sanford, Ward E.; Pope, Jason P.; Selnick, David L.; Stumvoll, Ryan F.

2012-01-01

Estimating future loadings of nitrogen to the Chesapeake Bay requires knowledge about the groundwater flow system and the traveltime of water and chemicals between recharge at the water table and the discharge to streams and directly to the bay. The Delmarva Peninsula has a relatively large proportion of its land devoted to agriculture and a large associated nitrogen load in groundwater that has the potential to enter the bay in discharging groundwater. To better understand the shallow aquifer system with respect to this loading and the traveltime to the bay, the U.S. Geological Survey constructed a steady-state groundwater flow model for the region. The model is based on estimates of recharge calculated using recently developed regression equations for evapotranspiration and surface runoff. The hydrogeologic framework incorporated into the model includes unconfined surficial aquifer sediments, as well as subcropping confined aquifers and confining beds down to 300 feet below land surface. The model was calibrated using 48 water-level measurements and 24 tracer-based ages from wells located across the peninsula. The resulting steady-state flow solution was used to estimate ages of water in the shallow aquifer system through the peninsula and the distribution and magnitude of groundwater traveltime from recharge at the water table to discharge in surface-water bodies (referred to as return time). Return times vary but are typically less than 10 years near local streams and greater than 100 years near the stream divides. The model can be used to calculate nitrate transport parameters in various local watersheds and predict future trends in nitrate loadings to Chesapeake Bay for different future nitrogen application scenarios.

The CHOP postnatal weight gain, birth weight, and gestational age retinopathy of prematurity risk model.

PubMed

Binenbaum, Gil; Ying, Gui-Shuang; Quinn, Graham E; Huang, Jiayan; Dreiseitl, Stephan; Antigua, Jules; Foroughi, Negar; Abbasi, Soraya

2012-12-01

To develop a birth weight (BW), gestational age (GA), and postnatal-weight gain retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) prediction model in a cohort of infants meeting current screening guidelines. Multivariate logistic regression was applied retrospectively to data from infants born with BW less than 1501 g or GA of 30 weeks or less at a single Philadelphia hospital between January 1, 2004, and December 31, 2009. In the model, BW, GA, and daily weight gain rate were used repeatedly each week to predict risk of Early Treatment of Retinopathy of Prematurity type 1 or 2 ROP. If risk was above a cut-point level, examinations would be indicated. Of 524 infants, 20 (4%) had type 1 ROP and received laser treatment; 28 (5%) had type 2 ROP. The model (Children's Hospital of Philadelphia [CHOP]) accurately predicted all infants with type 1 ROP; missed 1 infant with type 2 ROP, who did not require laser treatment; and would have reduced the number of infants requiring examinations by 49%. Raising the cut point to miss one type 1 ROP case would have reduced the need for examinations by 79%. Using daily weight measurements to calculate weight gain rate resulted in slightly higher examination reduction than weekly measurements. The BW-GA-weight gain CHOP ROP model demonstrated accurate ROP risk assessment and a large reduction in the number of ROP examinations compared with current screening guidelines. As a simple logistic equation, it can be calculated by hand or represented as a nomogram for easy clinical use. However, larger studies are needed to achieve a highly precise estimate of sensitivity prior to clinical application.

The use of stored carbon reserves in growth of temperate tree roots and leaf buds: Analyses using radiocarbon measurements and modeling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gaudinski, J.B.; Torn, M.S.; Riley, W.J.

2009-02-01

Characterizing the use of carbon (C) reserves in trees is important for understanding regional and global C cycles, stress responses, asynchrony between photosynthetic activity and growth demand, and isotopic exchanges in studies of tree physiology and ecosystem C cycling. Using an inadvertent, whole-ecosystem radiocarbon ({sup 14}C) release in a temperate deciduous oak forest and numerical modeling, we estimated that the mean age of stored C used to grow both leaf buds and new roots is 0.7 years and about 55% of new-root growth annually comes from stored C. Therefore, the calculated mean age of C used to grow new-root tissuemore » is {approx}0.4 years. In short, new roots contain a lot of stored C but it is young in age. Additionally, the type of structure used to model stored C input is important. Model structures that did not include storage, or that assumed stored and new C mixed well (within root or shoot tissues) before being used for root growth, did not fit the data nearly as well as when a distinct storage pool was used. Consistent with these whole-ecosystem labeling results, the mean age of C in new-root tissues determined using 'bomb-{sup 14}C' in three additional forest sites in North America and Europe (one deciduous, two coniferous) was less than 1-2 years. The effect of stored reserves on estimated ages of fine roots is unlikely to be large in most natural abundance isotope studies. However, models of root C dynamics should take stored reserves into account, particularly for pulse-labeling studies and fast-cycling roots (<1 years).« less

Stratification of complexity in congenital heart surgery: comparative study of the Risk Adjustment for Congenital Heart Surgery (RACHS-1) method, Aristotle basic score and Society of Thoracic Surgeons-European Association for Cardio- Thoracic Surgery (STS-EACTS) mortality score.

PubMed

Cavalcanti, Paulo Ernando Ferraz; Sá, Michel Pompeu Barros de Oliveira; Santos, Cecília Andrade dos; Esmeraldo, Isaac Melo; Chaves, Mariana Leal; Lins, Ricardo Felipe de Albuquerque; Lima, Ricardo de Carvalho

2015-01-01

To determine whether stratification of complexity models in congenital heart surgery (RACHS-1, Aristotle basic score and STS-EACTS mortality score) fit to our center and determine the best method of discriminating hospital mortality. Surgical procedures in congenital heart diseases in patients under 18 years of age were allocated to the categories proposed by the stratification of complexity methods currently available. The outcome hospital mortality was calculated for each category from the three models. Statistical analysis was performed to verify whether the categories presented different mortalities. The discriminatory ability of the models was determined by calculating the area under the ROC curve and a comparison between the curves of the three models was performed. 360 patients were allocated according to the three methods. There was a statistically significant difference between the mortality categories: RACHS-1 (1) - 1.3%, (2) - 11.4%, (3)-27.3%, (4) - 50 %, (P<0.001); Aristotle basic score (1) - 1.1%, (2) - 12.2%, (3) - 34%, (4) - 64.7%, (P<0.001); and STS-EACTS mortality score (1) - 5.5 %, (2) - 13.6%, (3) - 18.7%, (4) - 35.8%, (P<0.001). The three models had similar accuracy by calculating the area under the ROC curve: RACHS-1- 0.738; STS-EACTS-0.739; Aristotle- 0.766. The three models of stratification of complexity currently available in the literature are useful with different mortalities between the proposed categories with similar discriminatory capacity for hospital mortality.

Self-oscillating Vocal Fold Model Mechanics: Healthy, Diseased, and Aging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hiubler, Elizabeth P.; Pollok, Lucas F. E.; Apostoli, Adam G.; Hancock, Adrienne B.; Plesniak, Michael W.

2014-11-01

Voice disorders have been estimated to have a substantial economic impact of 2.5 billion annually. Approximately 30% of people will suffer from a voice disorder at some point in their lives. Life-sized, self-oscillating, synthetic vocal fold (VF) models are fabricated to exhibit material properties representative of human VFs. These models are created both with and without a polyp-like structure, a pathology that has been shown to produce rich viscous flow structures not normally observed for healthy VFs during normal phonation. Pressure measurements are acquired upstream of the VFs and high-speed images are captured at varying flow rates during VF oscillation to facilitate an understanding of the characteristics of healthy and diseased VFs. The images are analyzed using a videokymography line-scan technique. Clinically-relevant parameters calculated from the volume-velocity output of a circumferentially-vented mask (Rothenberg mask) are compared to human data collected from two groups of males aged 18-30 and 60-80. This study extends the use of synthetic VF models by assessing their ability to replicate behaviors observed in human subject data to advance a means of investigating changes associated with normal, pathological, and the aging voice. Supported by the GWU Institute for Biomedical Engineering (GWIBE) and GWU Center for Biomimetics and Bioinspired Engineering (COBRE).

LARC-1: a Los Alamos release calculation program for fission product transport in HTGRs during the LOFC accident

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Carruthers, L.M.; Lee, C.E.

1976-10-01

The theoretical and numerical data base development of the LARC-1 code is described. Four analytical models of fission product release from an HTGR core during the loss of forced circulation accident are developed. Effects of diffusion, adsorption and evaporation of the metallics and precursors are neglected in this first LARC model. Comparison of the analytic models indicates that the constant release-renormalized model is adequate to describe the processes involved. The numerical data base for release constants, temperature modeling, fission product release rates, coated fuel particle failure fraction and aged coated fuel particle failure fractions is discussed. Analytic fits and graphicmore » displays for these data are given for the Ft. St. Vrain and GASSAR models.« less

Reduced survival in adult cystic fibrosis despite attenuated lung function decline.

PubMed

Keating, Claire; Poor, Armeen D; Liu, Xinhua; Chiuzan, Codruta; Backenroth, Daniel; Zhang, Yuan; DiMango, Emily

2017-01-01

There is limited data on disease progression and survival in adult diagnosis cystic fibrosis (CF). This study evaluates change of lung function over time and rates of death/lung transplant in adult diagnosis CF. The CF Foundation Patient Registry was reviewed for patients diagnosed 1993-2003. Rate of FEV1 decline was calculated up to 2010 for age groups 6-11, 12-17, and 18 and above. Kaplan Meier method was used for 10 and 15year survival rate calculations for patients diagnosed as adults. Cox Proportional hazards models using predictors affecting disease progression and survival without transplant were run. Between 1993 and 2003, 11,884 patients were diagnosed with CF, of which 2848 were ages 6 and older. Annual rate of change of FEV1% predicted over 5years differed by diagnosis age group: -1.42% per year for ages 6-11, -2.04% for ages 12-17 and -1.13% for ages 18-65 (p<0.0001). Pseudomonas aeruginosa infection was associated with faster rates of lung function decline in all age groups. Survival without transplant for CF patients diagnosed at ≥18years were 76% and 65% by 10 and 15years, respectively. Of adults with FEV1 of >70% predicted at diagnosis, 95% were alive without transplant at 10years, whereas of those with FEV1<40% predicted at diagnosis, 31% were alive without transplant at 10years. Lung function declines at a slower rate in adult diagnosis CF. However, particularly in those with low lung function at diagnosis, rates of death or transplant in adult diagnosis CF after 10 and 15years is not negligible. Copyright © 2016 European Cystic Fibrosis Society. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Mid-Infrared Lifetime Imaging for Viability Evaluation of Lettuce Seeds Based on Time-Dependent Thermal Decay Characterization

PubMed Central

Kim, Ghiseok; Kim, Geon Hee; Ahn, Chi-Kook; Yoo, Yoonkyu; Cho, Byoung-Kwan

2013-01-01

An infrared lifetime thermal imaging technique for the measurement of lettuce seed viability was evaluated. Thermal emission signals from mid-infrared images of healthy seeds and seeds aged for 24, 48, and 72 h were obtained and reconstructed using regression analysis. The emission signals were fitted with a two-term exponential model that had two amplitudes and two time variables as lifetime parameters. The lifetime thermal decay parameters were significantly different for seeds with different aging times. Single-seed viability was visualized using thermal lifetime images constructed from the calculated lifetime parameter values. The time-dependent thermal signal decay characteristics, along with the decay amplitude and delay time images, can be used to distinguish aged lettuce seeds from normal seeds. PMID:23529120

[Prediction of life expectancy for prostate cancer patients based on the kinetic theory of aging of living systems].

PubMed

Viktorov, A A; Zharinov, G M; Neklasova, N Ju; Morozova, E E

2017-01-01

The article presents a methodical approach for prediction of life expectancy for people diagnosed with prostate cancer based on the kinetic theory of aging of living systems. The life expectancy is calculated by solving the differential equation for the rate of aging for three different stage of life - «normal» life, life with prostate cancer and life after combination therapy for prostate cancer. The mathematical model of aging for each stage of life has its own parameters identified by the statistical analysis of healthcare data from the Zharinov's databank and Rosstat CDR NES databank. The core of the methodical approach is the statistical correlation between growth rate of the prostate specific antigen level (PSA-level) or the PSA doubling time (PSA DT) before therapy, and lifespan: the higher the PSA DT is, the greater lifespan. The patients were grouped under the «fast PSA DT» and «slow PSA DT» categories. The satisfactory matching between calculations and experiment is shown. The prediction error of group life expectancy is due to the completeness and reliability of the main data source. A detailed monitoring of the basic health indicators throughout the each person life in each analyzed group is required. The absence of this particular information makes it impossible to predict the individual life expectancy.

Eclipsing Binary V1178 Tau: A Reddening Independent Determination of the Age and Distance to NGC 1817

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hedlund, Anne; Sandquist, Eric L.; Arentoft, Torben; Brogaard, Karsten; Grundahl, Frank; Stello, Dennis; Bedin, Luigi R.; Libralato, Mattia; Malavolta, Luca; Nardiello, Domenico; Molenda-Zakowicz, Joanna; Vanderburg, Andrew

2018-06-01

V1178 Tau is a double-lined spectroscopic eclipsing binary in NGC1817, one of the more massive clusters observed in the K2 mission. We have determined the orbital period (P = 2.20 d) for the first time, and we model radial velocity measurements from the HARPS and ALFOSC spectrographs, light curves collected by Kepler, and ground based light curves using the Eclipsing Light Curve code (ELC, Orosz & Hauschildt 2000). We present masses and radii for the stars in the binary, allowing for a reddening-independent means of determining the cluster age. V1178 Tau is particularly useful for calculating the age of the cluster because the stars are close to the cluster turnoff, providing a more precise age determination. Furthermore, because one of the stars in the binary is a delta Scuti variable, the analysis provides improved insight into their pulsations.

Quantitative Susceptibility Mapping by Inversion of a Perturbation Field Model: Correlation with Brain Iron in Normal Aging

PubMed Central

Poynton, Clare; Jenkinson, Mark; Adalsteinsson, Elfar; Sullivan, Edith V.; Pfefferbaum, Adolf; Wells, William

2015-01-01

There is increasing evidence that iron deposition occurs in specific regions of the brain in normal aging and neurodegenerative disorders such as Parkinson's, Huntington's, and Alzheimer's disease. Iron deposition changes the magnetic susceptibility of tissue, which alters the MR signal phase, and allows estimation of susceptibility differences using quantitative susceptibility mapping (QSM). We present a method for quantifying susceptibility by inversion of a perturbation model, or ‘QSIP’. The perturbation model relates phase to susceptibility using a kernel calculated in the spatial domain, in contrast to previous Fourier-based techniques. A tissue/air susceptibility atlas is used to estimate B0 inhomogeneity. QSIP estimates in young and elderly subjects are compared to postmortem iron estimates, maps of the Field-Dependent Relaxation Rate Increase (FDRI), and the L1-QSM method. Results for both groups showed excellent agreement with published postmortem data and in-vivo FDRI: statistically significant Spearman correlations ranging from Rho = 0.905 to Rho = 1.00 were obtained. QSIP also showed improvement over FDRI and L1-QSM: reduced variance in susceptibility estimates and statistically significant group differences were detected in striatal and brainstem nuclei, consistent with age-dependent iron accumulation in these regions. PMID:25248179

Phobic Anxiety and Plasma Levels of Global Oxidative Stress in Women

PubMed Central

Hagan, Kaitlin A.; Wu, Tianying; Rimm, Eric B.; Eliassen, A. Heather; Okereke, Olivia I.

2015-01-01

Background and Objectives Psychological distress has been hypothesized to be associated with adverse biologic states such as higher oxidative stress and inflammation. Yet, little is known about associations between a common form of distress – phobic anxiety – and global oxidative stress. Thus, we related phobic anxiety to plasma fluorescent oxidation products (FlOPs), a global oxidative stress marker. Methods We conducted a cross-sectional analysis among 1,325 women (aged 43-70 years) from the Nurses’ Health Study. Phobic anxiety was measured using the Crown-Crisp Index (CCI). Adjusted least-squares mean log-transformed FlOPs were calculated across phobic categories. Logistic regression models were used to calculate odds ratios (OR) comparing the highest CCI category (≥6 points) vs. lower scores, across FlOPs quartiles. Results No association was found between phobic anxiety categories and mean FlOP levels in multivariable adjusted linear models. Similarly, in multivariable logistic regression models there were no associations between FlOPs quartiles and likelihood of being in the highest phobic category. Comparing women in the highest vs. lowest FlOPs quartiles: FlOP_360: OR=0.68 (95% CI: 0.40-1.15); FlOP_320: OR=0.99 (95% CI: 0.61-1.61); FlOP_400: OR=0.92 (95% CI: 0.52, 1.63). Conclusions No cross-sectional association was found between phobic anxiety and a plasma measure of global oxidative stress in this sample of middle-aged and older women. PMID:26635425

Dynamic stiffness of chemically and physically ageing rubber vibration isolators in the audible frequency range: Part 2—waveguide solution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kari, Leif

2017-09-01

The dynamic stiffness of a chemically and physically ageing rubber vibration isolator in the audible frequency range is modelled as a function of ageing temperature, ageing time, actual temperature, time, frequency and isolator dimension. In particular, the dynamic stiffness for an axially symmetric, homogeneously aged rubber vibration isolator is derived by waveguides where the eigenmodes given by the dispersion relation for an infinite cylinder satisfying traction free radial surface boundary condition are matched to satisfy the displacement boundary conditions at the lateral surface ends of the finite rubber cylinder. The constitutive equations are derived in a companion paper (Part 1). The dynamic stiffness is calculated over the whole audible frequency range 20-20,000 Hz at several physical ageing times for a temperature history starting at thermodynamic equilibrium at +25°C and exposed by a sudden temperature step down to -60°C and at several chemical ageing times at temperature +25°C with simultaneous molecular network scission and reformation. The dynamic stiffness results are displaying a strong frequency dependence at a short physical ageing time, showing stiffness magnitude peaks and troughs, and a strong physical ageing time dependence, showing a large stiffness magnitude increase with the increased physical ageing time, while the peaks and troughs are smoothed out. Likewise, stiffness magnitude peaks and troughs are frequency-shifted with increased chemical ageing time. The developed model is possible to apply for dynamic stiffness prediction of rubber vibration isolator over a broad audible frequency range under realistic environmental condition of chemical ageing, mainly attributed to oxygen exposure from outside and of physical ageing, primarily perceived at low-temperature steps.

A longitudinal study of DNA methylation as a potential mediator of age-related diabetes risk.

PubMed

Grant, Crystal D; Jafari, Nadereh; Hou, Lifang; Li, Yun; Stewart, James D; Zhang, Guosheng; Lamichhane, Archana; Manson, JoAnn E; Baccarelli, Andrea A; Whitsel, Eric A; Conneely, Karen N

2017-12-01

DNA methylation (DNAm) has been found to show robust and widespread age-related changes across the genome. DNAm profiles from whole blood can be used to predict human aging rates with great accuracy. We sought to test whether DNAm-based predictions of age are related to phenotypes associated with type 2 diabetes (T2D), with the goal of identifying risk factors potentially mediated by DNAm. Our participants were 43 women enrolled in the Women's Health Initiative. We obtained methylation data via the Illumina 450K Methylation array on whole blood samples from participants at three timepoints, covering on average 16 years per participant. We employed the method and software of Horvath, which uses DNAm at 353 CpGs to form a DNAm-based estimate of chronological age. We then calculated the epigenetic age acceleration, or Δ age , at each timepoint. We fit linear mixed models to characterize how Δ age contributed to a longitudinal model of aging and diabetes-related phenotypes and risk factors. For most participants, Δ age remained constant, indicating that age acceleration is generally stable over time. We found that Δ age associated with body mass index (p = 0.0012), waist circumference (p = 0.033), and fasting glucose (p = 0.0073), with the relationship with BMI maintaining significance after correction for multiple testing. Replication in a larger cohort of 157 WHI participants spanning 3 years was unsuccessful, possibly due to the shorter time frame covered. Our results suggest that DNAm has the potential to act as a mediator between aging and diabetes-related phenotypes, or alternatively, may serve as a biomarker of these phenotypes.

Comparison of monoenergetic photon organ dose rate coefficients for stylized and voxel phantoms submerged in air

DOE PAGES

Bellamy, Michael B.; Hiller, Mauritius M.; Dewji, Shaheen A.; ...

2016-02-01

As part of a broader effort to calculate effective dose rate coefficients for external exposure to photons and electrons emitted by radionuclides distributed in air, soil or water, age-specific stylized phantoms have been employed to determine dose coefficients relating dose rate to organs and tissues in the body. In this article, dose rate coefficients computed using the International Commission on Radiological Protection reference adult male voxel phantom are compared with values computed using the Oak Ridge National Laboratory adult male stylized phantom in an air submersion exposure geometry. Monte Carlo calculations for both phantoms were performed for monoenergetic source photonsmore » in the range of 30 keV to 5 MeV. Furthermore, these calculations largely result in differences under 10 % for photon energies above 50 keV, and it can be expected that both models show comparable results for the environmental sources of radionuclides.« less

Comparison of monoenergetic photon organ dose rate coefficients for stylized and voxel phantoms submerged in air

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bellamy, Michael B.; Hiller, Mauritius M.; Dewji, Shaheen A.

As part of a broader effort to calculate effective dose rate coefficients for external exposure to photons and electrons emitted by radionuclides distributed in air, soil or water, age-specific stylized phantoms have been employed to determine dose coefficients relating dose rate to organs and tissues in the body. In this article, dose rate coefficients computed using the International Commission on Radiological Protection reference adult male voxel phantom are compared with values computed using the Oak Ridge National Laboratory adult male stylized phantom in an air submersion exposure geometry. Monte Carlo calculations for both phantoms were performed for monoenergetic source photonsmore » in the range of 30 keV to 5 MeV. Furthermore, these calculations largely result in differences under 10 % for photon energies above 50 keV, and it can be expected that both models show comparable results for the environmental sources of radionuclides.« less

Examination of a Thermally Viable Structure for an Unconventional Uni-Leg Mg2Si Thermoelectric Power Generator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sakamoto, Tatsuya; Iida, Tsutomu; Taguchi, Yutaka; Kurosaki, Shota; Hayatsu, Yusuke; Nishio, Keishi; Kogo, Yasuo; Takanashi, Yoshifumi

2012-06-01

We have fabricated an unconventional uni-leg structure thermoelectric generator (TEG) element using quad thermoelectric (TE) chips of Sb-doped n-Mg2Si, which were prepared by a plasma-activated sintering process. The power curve characteristics, the effect of aging up to 500 h, and the thermal gradients at several points on the module were investigated. The observed maximum output power with the heat source at 975 K and the heat sink at 345 K was 341 mW, from which the Δ T for the TE chip was calculated to be about 333 K. In aging testing in air ambient, a remarkable feature of the results was that there was no notable change from the initial resistance of the TEG module for as long as 500 h. The thermal distribution for the fabricated uni-leg TEG element was analyzed by finite-element modeling using ANSYS software. To tune the calculation parameters of ANSYS, such as the thermal conductance properties of the corresponding coupled materials in the module, precise measurements of the temperature at various probe points on the module were made. Then, meticulous verification between the measured temperature values and the results calculated by ANSYS was carried out to optimize the parameters.

Microkinetic modeling of the autoxidative curing of an alkyd and oil-based paint model system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oakley, Lindsay H.; Casadio, Francesca; Shull, Kenneth R.; Broadbelt, Linda J.

2015-11-01

Elucidating the curing and aging mechanisms of alkyd and other oil-based paints is valuable for the fields of conservation and bio-based coatings. Recent research has demonstrated the limitations of artificial aging in predicting the actual properties of paints that are hundreds of years old. Kinetic modeling offers pathways to develop a realistic and dynamic description of the composition of these oil-based paint coatings and facilitates the exploration of the effects of various environmental conditions on their long-term chemical stability. This work presents the construction of a kinetic Monte Carlo framework from elementary steps for the cobalt-catalyzed autoxidative curing of an ethyl linoleate model system up to the formation of single cross-links. Kinetic correlations for reaction families of similar chemistry are employed to reduce the number of parameters required to calculate rate constants in Arrhenius form. The model, developed from mechanisms proposed in the literature, shows good agreement with experiment for the formation of primary products in the early stages of curing. The model has also revealed that the mechanisms proposed in the literature for the formation of secondary products, such as volatile aldehydes, are still not well established, and alternative routes are under evaluation.

Refined pipe theory for mechanistic modeling of wood development.

PubMed

Deckmyn, Gaby; Evans, Sam P; Randle, Tim J

2006-06-01

We present a mechanistic model of wood tissue development in response to changes in competition, management and climate. The model is based on a refinement of the pipe theory, where the constant ratio between sapwood and leaf area (pipe theory) is replaced by a ratio between pipe conductivity and leaf area. Simulated pipe conductivity changes with age, stand density and climate in response to changes in allocation or pipe radius, or both. The central equation of the model, which calculates the ratio of carbon (C) allocated to leaves and pipes, can be parameterized to describe the contrasting stem conductivity behavior of different tree species: from constant stem conductivity (functional homeostasis hypothesis) to height-related reduction in stem conductivity with age (hydraulic limitation hypothesis). The model simulates the daily growth of pipes (vessels or tracheids), fibers and parenchyma as well as vessel size and simulates the wood density profile and the earlywood to latewood ratio from these data. Initial runs indicate the model yields realistic seasonal changes in pipe radius (decreasing pipe radius from spring to autumn) and wood density, as well as realistic differences associated with the competitive status of trees (denser wood in suppressed trees).

A model based method for recognizing psoas major muscles in torso CT images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kamiya, Naoki; Zhou, Xiangrong; Chen, Huayue; Hara, Takeshi; Yokoyama, Ryujiro; Kanematsu, Masayuki; Hoshi, Hiroaki; Fujita, Hiroshi

2010-03-01

In aging societies, it is important to analyze age-related hypokinesia. A psoas major muscle has many important functional capabilities such as capacity of balance and posture control. These functions can be measured by its cross sectional area (CSA), volume, and thickness. However, these values are calculated manually in the clinical situation. The purpose of our study is to propose an automated recognition method of psoas major muscles in X-ray torso CT images. The proposed recognition process involves three steps: 1) determination of anatomical points such as the origin and insertion of the psoas major muscle, 2) generation of a shape model for the psoas major muscle, and 3) recognition of the psoas major muscles by use of the shape model. The model was built using quadratic function, and was fit to the anatomical center line of psoas major muscle. The shape model was generated using 20 CT cases and tested by 20 other CT cases. The applied database consisted of 12 male and 8 female cases from the ages of 40's to 80's. The average value of Jaccard similarity coefficient (JSC) values employed in the evaluation was 0.7. Our experimental results indicated that the proposed method was effective for a volumetric analysis and could be possible to be used for a quantitative measurement of psoas major muscles in CT images.

Constitutive description of human femoropopliteal artery aging.

PubMed

Kamenskiy, Alexey; Seas, Andreas; Deegan, Paul; Poulson, William; Anttila, Eric; Sim, Sylvie; Desyatova, Anastasia; MacTaggart, Jason

2017-04-01

Femoropopliteal artery (FPA) mechanics play a paramount role in pathophysiology and the artery's response to therapeutic interventions, but data on FPA mechanical properties are scarce. Our goal was to characterize human FPAs over a wide population to derive a constitutive description of FPA aging to be used for computational modeling. Fresh human FPA specimens ([Formula: see text]) were obtained from [Formula: see text] predominantly male (80 %) donors 54±15 years old (range 13-82 years). Morphometric characteristics including radius, wall thickness, opening angle, and longitudinal pre-stretch were recorded. Arteries were subjected to multi-ratio planar biaxial extension to determine constitutive parameters for an invariant-based model accounting for the passive contributions of ground substance, elastin, collagen, and smooth muscle. Nonparametric bootstrapping was used to determine unique sets of material parameters that were used to derive age-group-specific characteristics. Physiologic stress-stretch state was calculated to capture changes with aging. Morphometric and constitutive parameters were derived for seven age groups. Vessel radius, wall thickness, and circumferential opening angle increased with aging, while longitudinal pre-stretch decreased ([Formula: see text]). Age-group-specific constitutive parameters portrayed orthotropic FPA stiffening, especially in the longitudinal direction. Structural changes in artery wall elastin were associated with reduction of physiologic longitudinal and circumferential stretches and stresses with age. These data and the constitutive description of FPA aging shed new light on our understanding of peripheral arterial disease pathophysiology and arterial aging. Application of this knowledge might improve patient selection for specific treatment modalities in personalized, precision medicine algorithms and could assist in device development for treatment of peripheral artery disease.

Interrelationships of serum testosterone and free testosterone index with FFM and strength in aging men.

PubMed

Roy, Tracey Ann; Blackman, Marc R; Harman, S Mitchell; Tobin, Jordan D; Schrager, Matthew; Metter, E Jeffery

2002-08-01

Muscle mass and strength losses during aging may be associated with declining levels of serum testosterone (T) in men. Few studies have shown a direct relationship between T and muscle mass and strength. Subjects were 262 men, aged 24-90 yr, from the Baltimore Longitudinal Study of Aging, who had T and sex hormone-binding globulin sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG) measurements, from which the free T index (FTI) was calculated (T/SHBG) from serum samples collected longitudinally since 1963, total body fat mass and arm and leg fat-free mass (FFM) by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry and arm and leg strength by dynanomometry. Mixed-effects models estimated T and FTI at the time of mass and strength measurements. Age, total body fat, arm and leg FFM, T, and FTI were significantly associated with concentric and eccentric strength. FTI, not T, was modestly, but directly, related to arm and leg strength after fat, arm and leg FFM, height, and age were accounted for and indirectly through body mass. FTI is a better predictor of arm and leg strength than T in aging men.

Cosmic ray exposure ages of iron meteorites, complex irradiation and the constancy of cosmic ray flux in the past

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marti, K.; Lavielle, B.; Regnier, S.

1984-01-01

While previous calculations of potassium ages assumed a constant cosmic ray flux and a single stage (no change in size) exposure of iron meteorites, present calculations relaxed these constancy assumptions and the results reveal multistage irradiations for some 25% of the meteorites studied, implying multiple breakup in space. The distribution of exposure ages suggests several major collisions (based on chemical composition and structure), although the calibration of age scales is not yet complete. It is concluded that shielding-corrected (corrections which depend on size and position of sample) production rates are consistent for the age bracket of 300 to 900 years. These production rates differ in a systematic way from those calculated for present day fluxes of cosmic rays (such as obtained for the last few million years).

Constraints on the Composition and Evolution of the Lunar Crust from Meteorite NWA 3163

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McLeod, C. L.; Brandon, A. D.; Fernandes, V. A.; Peslier, A. H.; Lapen, T. J.; Irving, A. J.

2013-01-01

The lunar meteorite NWA 3163 (paired with NWA 4881, 4483) is a ferroan, feldspathic granulitic breccia characterized by pigeonite, augite, olivine, maskelynite and accessory Tichromite, ilmenite and troilite. Bulk rock geochemical signatures indicate the lack of a KREEP- derived component (Eu/Eu* = 3.47), consistent with previously studied lunar granulites and anorthosites. Bulk rock chondrite-normalized signatures are however distinct from the anorthosites and granulites sampled by Apollo missions and are relatively REE-depleted. In-situ analyses of maskelynite reveal little variation in anorthite content (average An% is 96.9 +/- 1.6, 2 sigma). Olivine is relatively ferroan and exhibits very little variation in forsterite content with mean Fo% of 57.7 +/- 2.0 (2 sigma). The majority of pyroxene is low-Ca pigeonite (En57Fs33Wo10). Augite (En46Fs21Wo33) is less common, comprising approximately 10% of analyzed pyroxene. Two pyroxene thermometry on co-existing orthopyroxene and augite yield an equilibrium temperature of 1070C which is in reasonable agreement with temperatures of 1096C estimated from pigeonite compositions. Rb-Sr isotopic systematics of separated fractions yield an average measured Sr-87/Sr-87 of 0.699282+/-0.000007 (2 sigma). Sr model ages are calculated using a modern day Sr-87/Sr-86 Basaltic Achondrite Best Initial (BABI) value of 0.70475, from an initial BABI value Sr-87/Sr-86 of 0.69891 and a corresponding Rb-87/Sr-97 of 0.08716. The Sr model Thermomechanical analysis (TMA) age, which represents the time of separation of a melt from a source reservoir having chondritic evolution, is 4.56+/-0.1 Ga. A Sr model T(sub RD) age, which is a Rb depletion age and assumes no contribution from Rb in the sample in the calculation, yields 4.34+/-0.1 Ga (i.e. a minimum age). The Ar-Ar dating of paired meteorite NWA 4881 reveals an age of c. 2 Ga, likely representing the last thermal event this meteorite experienced. An older Ar-40/Ar-39 age of c. 3.5 Ga may record the thermal event which produced the granulitic texture. Additional chronological constraints will be provided by Sm-Nd systematics. Ferroan Anorthosites like NWA 3163 have been interpreted to represent direct lunar magma ocean (LMO) crystallization products. If this is the case, trace element concentrations in NWA 3163 primary mineral phases should be in equilibrium with residual LMO liquids present during crystallization of those phases. Results from petrogenetic modeling suggest that the NWA 3163 protolith did not form from crystallization of an initially LREE depleted LMO but rather require an initially chondritic LMO with early garnet crystallization. Furthermore, a two-stage crystallization model where plagioclase crystalized prior to pyroxene (93% vs. 99.5% of LMO crystallization) is implied.

Ageing of polymer bonds: a coupled chemomechanical modelling approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dippel, Benedikt; Johlitz, Michael; Lion, Alexander

2014-05-01

With the increasing number of requirements on joinings, it gets more and more important to understand and predict an assemblies properties. Nowadays, in industrial applications, combinations of different materials get more common. In most of those cases, it is, besides other advantages, useful to connect such parts with adhesives to avoid local cells. Thus, the knowledge about the mechanical behaviour of adhesives over the whole time of utilisation is an essential element of engineering. As it is well known, ageing due to environmental influences such as oxygen, radiation, ozone and others plays a major role in polymers properties. So, for the prediction of applicability over the whole lifetime of a technical component, the change in mechanical properties due to ageing is necessary. In this contribution, we introduce a material model which takes into account the internal structure of an adhesive. Therefore, an interphase zone is introduced. In the interphase, which is developed due to the contact of an adhesive with an adherent, the materials properties change continuously from the surface to the centre of the joint, where the polymer is in a bulky state. Built up on this geometry dependency, the materials ageing as a function of the position is described. To model the change of the polymers state, we use a parameter representing chain scission processes and another one for the reformation of a new network. In a last step, the model is transferred into a finite element code for exemplary calculations.

Estimates of the temperatures of hydrocarbon generation in the region of the Sea of Okhotsk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verzhbitsky, E. V.; Berlin, Yu. M.; Kononov, M. V.; Marina, M. M.

2006-07-01

Particular features of the tectonic structure and anomalous distribution of the geothermal, geomagnetic, and gravity fields in the region of the Sea of Okhotsk are considered. On the basis of heat flow data, the ages of large-scale structures in the Sea of Okhotsk are estimated at 65 Ma for the Central Okhotsk Rise and 36 Ma for the South Okhotsk Basin. The age of the South Okhotsk Basin is confirmed by the data on the kinematics and corresponds to a 50-km thickness of the lithosphere. This is in accordance with the thickness value obtained by magnetotelluric soundings. A comparative analysis of the model geothermal background and the measured heat flow values on the Akademii Nauk Rise is performed. The analysis points to an abnormally high (by approximately 20%) measured heat flow, which agrees with the high negative gradient of gravity anomalies. The estimates of the deep heat flow and the basement age of the riftogenic basins in the Sea of Okhotsk were carried out in the following areas: the Deryugin Basin (18 Ma, Early Miocene), the TINRO Basin (12 Ma, Middle Miocene), and the West Kamchatka Basin (23 Ma, Late Oligocene). The temperatures at the boundaries of the main lithological complexes of the sedimentary cover are calculated and the zones of oil and gas generation are defined. On the basis of geothermal, magnetic, structural, and other geological-geophysical data, a kinematic model of the region of the Sea of Okhotsk for a period of 36 Ma was calculated and constructed.

Measuring women's cumulative neighborhood deprivation exposure using longitudinally linked vital records: a method for life course MCH research.

PubMed

Kramer, Michael R; Dunlop, Anne L; Hogue, Carol J R

2014-02-01

A life course conceptual framework for MCH research demands new tools for understanding population health and measuring exposures. We propose a method for measuring population-based socio-environmental trajectories for women of reproductive age. We merged maternal longitudinally-linked births to Georgia-resident women from 1994 to 2007 with census economic and social measures using residential geocodes to create woman-centered socio-environmental trajectories. We calculated a woman's neighborhood deprivation index (NDI) at the time of each of her births and, from these, we calculated a cumulative NDI. We fit Loess curves to describe average life course NDI trajectories and binomial regression models to test specific life course theory hypotheses relating cumulative NDI to risk for preterm birth. Of the 1,815,944 total live births, we linked 1,000,437 live births to 413,048 unique women with two or more births. Record linkage had high specificity but relatively low sensitivity which appears non-differential with respect to maternal characteristics. Georgia women on average experienced upward mobility across the life course, although differences by race, early life neighborhood quality, and age at first birth produced differences in cumulative NDI. Adjusted binomial models found evidence for modification of the effect of history of prior preterm birth and advancing age on risk for preterm birth by cumulative NDI. The creation of trajectories from geocoded maternal longitudinally-linked vital records is one method to carry out life course MCH research. We discuss approaches for investigating the impact of truncation of the life course, selection bias from migration, and misclassification of cumulative exposure.

Association of cutaneous melanoma incidence with area-based socioeconomic indicators-United States, 2004-2006.

PubMed

Singh, Simple D; Ajani, Umed A; Johnson, Christopher J; Roland, Katherine B; Eide, Melody; Jemal, Ahmedin; Negoita, Serban; Bayakly, Rana A; Ekwueme, Donatus U

2011-11-01

Socioeconomic status (SES) has been associated with melanoma incidence and outcomes. Examination of the relationship between melanoma and SES at the national level in the United States is limited. Expanding knowledge of this association is needed to improve early detection and eliminate disparities. We sought to provide a detailed description of cutaneous melanoma incidence and stage of disease in relationship to area-based socioeconomic measures including poverty level, education, income, and unemployment in the United States. Invasive cutaneous melanoma data reported by 44 population-based central cancer registries for 2004 to 2006 were merged with county-level SES estimates from the US Census Bureau. Age-adjusted incidence rates were calculated by gender, race/ethnicity, poverty, education, income, unemployment, and metro/urban/rural status using software. Poisson multilevel mixed models were fitted, and incidence density ratios were calculated by stage for area-based SES measures, controlling for age, gender, and state random effects. Counties with lower poverty, higher education, higher income, and lower unemployment had higher age-adjusted melanoma incidence rates for both early and late stage. In multivariate models, SES effects persisted for early-stage but not late-stage melanoma incidence. Individual-level measures of SES were unavailable, and estimates were based on county-level SES measures. Our findings show that melanoma incidence in the United States is associated with aggregate county-level measures of high SES. Analyses using finer-level SES measures, such as individual or census tract level, are needed to provide more precise estimates of these associations. Copyright © 2011 American Academy of Dermatology, Inc. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

An Individualized Risk Calculator for Research in Prodromal Psychosis

PubMed Central

Cannon, Tyrone D.; Yu, Changhong; Addington, Jean; Bearden, Carrie E.; Cadenhead, Kristin S.; Cornblatt, Barbara A.; Heinssen, Robert; Jeffries, Clark D.; Mathalon, Daniel H.; McGlashan, Thomas H.; Perkins, Diana O.; Seidman, Larry J.; Tsuang, Ming T.; Walker, Elaine F.; Woods, Scott W.; Kattan, Michael

2016-01-01

Objective About 20–35% of individuals aged 12–30 years who meet criteria for a prodromal risk syndrome convert to psychosis within two years. However, this estimate ignores the fact that clinical high-risk (CHR) cases vary considerably in risk. Here we sought to create a risk calculator that can ascertain the probability of conversion to psychosis in individual patients based on profiles of risk indicators. The high risk category predicted by this calculator can inform research criteria going forward. Method Subjects were 596 CHR participants from the second phase of the North American Prodrome Longitudinal Study (NAPLS 2) who were followed up to the time of conversion to psychosis or last contact (up to 2 years). Our scope was limited to predictors supported by prior studies and readily obtainable in general clinical settings. Time-to-event regression was used to build a multivariate model predicting conversion, with internal validation using 1000 bootstrap resamples. Results The 2-year probability of conversion to psychosis in this sample was 16%. Higher levels of unusual thought content and suspiciousness, greater decline in social functioning, lower verbal learning and memory performance, slower speed of processing, and younger age at baseline each contributed to individual risk for psychosis, while stressful life events, traumas, and family history of schizophrenia were not significant predictors. The multivariate model achieved a Concordance index of 0.71, and was validated in an independent external dataset. The results are instantiated in a web-based risk prediction tool envisioned to be most useful in research protocols involving the psychosis prodrome. Conclusions A risk calculator comparable in accuracy to those for cardiovascular disease and cancer is available to predict individualized conversion risks in newly ascertained CHR cases. Given that the risk calculator can only be validly applied for patients who screen positive on the Structured Clinical Interview for Psychosis Risk Syndromes, which requires training to administer, it's most immediate uses will be in research on psychosis risk factors and in research driven clinical (prevention) trials. PMID:27363508

Tooth coronal index and pulp/tooth ratio in dental age estimation on digital panoramic radiographs-A comparative study.

PubMed

Jain, Supreet; Nagi, Ravleen; Daga, Minal; Shandilya, Ashutosh; Shukla, Aastha; Parakh, Abhinav; Laheji, Afshan; Singh, Rahul

2017-08-01

Assessment of an age of an individual whether living or dead through teeth is one of the most reliable and simple method to calculate age than skeletal remains especially when they are in poor conditions. The study was carried out with aim of (i) to evaluate reliability of dental age assessment through two different methods for adults i.e. tooth coronal index and pulp/tooth ratio using digital panoramic radiographs and (ii) to compare these methods for their accuracy in age determination. The digital panoramic radiographs of 180 subjects of Chhattisgarh aged 15-70 years were selected for the study. The measurements were performed on the JPEG images of selected panoramic radiographs by using Adobe Acrobat 7.0 professional software. For tooth coronal index (TCI), height of the crown i.e. coronal height (CH) and the height of the coronal pulp cavity i.e. coronal pulp cavity height (CPCH) of mandibular second premolars and first molars was measured in millimeter (mm) and then TCI was calculated for each tooth and calculated age was compared with chronological age. For pulp/tooth ratio, the measurements of pulp chamber height (PCH) and crown root trunk height (CRTH) were performed on the mandibular first and second molar teeth, the pulp chamber crown root trunk height ratios (PCTHR) of selected tooth were calculated. The acquired data were subjected to Pearson correlation test, unpaired t test and Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) analysis. Results suggested that TCI (mandibular first molar r=-0.178), second premolar (r=-0.187) and PCTHR(mandibular first molar r=-0.921, second molar r=-0.901) correlated negatively with chronological age suggesting decrease in size of pulp cavity. Mandibular first molar was found to be most reliable tooth to estimate dental age. The study showed that both PCTHR and TCI have negative association with chronological age. PCTHR showed slightly higher negative correlation and proved as a better tool for age estimation than TCI. Statistically significant differences were observed between chronological and calculated age by both methods thus emphasizing the need for future clinical trials. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Aping humans: age and sex effects in chimpanzee (Pan troglodytes) and human (Homo sapiens) personality.

PubMed

King, James E; Weiss, Alexander; Sisco, Melissa M

2008-11-01

Ratings of 202 chimpanzees on 43 personality descriptor adjectives were used to calculate scores on five domains analogous to the human Five-Factor Model and a chimpanzee-specific Dominance domain. Male and female chimpanzees were divided into five age groups ranging from juvenile to old adult. Internal consistencies and interrater reliabilities of factors were stable across age groups and approximately 6.8 year retest reliabilities were high. Age-related declines in Extraversion and Openness and increases in Agreeableness and Conscientiousness paralleled human age differences. The mean change in absolute standardized units for all five factors was virtually identical in humans and chimpanzees after adjustment for different developmental rates. Consistent with their aggressive behavior in the wild, male chimpanzees were rated as more aggressive, emotional, and impulsive than females. Chimpanzee sex differences in personality were greater than comparable human gender differences. These findings suggest that chimpanzee and human personality develop via an unfolding maturational process. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2008 APA, all rights reserved).

Demographic Changes in Germany up to 2060 - Consequences for Blood Donation.

PubMed

Ehling, Manfred; Pötzsch, Olga

2010-06-01

This paper outlines the results of a most recent model calculation regarding the structure and development of Germany's population by 2060 with the aim to provide basic demographic data for the future provision of blood components to the population. Firstly, the paper describes the assumptions on fertility, life expectancy and Germany's balance of immigration and emigration which formed the basis for the projection. The following part discusses the results, quantifies future changes in the size and age structure of Germany's population, and illustrates the effects of demographic trends which can be identified from today's point of view. The number of potential blood donors will decline in absolute and relative terms (related to the total population and the age group of 'non-donors') in the future. This holds true for both the age bracket of 18 to 68 years and the alternatively chosen age group of 17 to 70 years. Depending on the variant, the population of blood donation age will decrease by one quarter to one third until 2060.

Self-assessment of eligibility for early medical abortion using m-Health to calculate gestational age in Cape Town, South Africa: a feasibility pilot study.

PubMed

Momberg, Mariette; Harries, Jane; Constant, Deborah

2016-04-16

Although abortion is legally available in South Africa, barriers to access exist. Early medical abortion is available to women with a gestational age up to 63 days and timely access is essential. This study aimed to determine women's acceptability and ability to self-assess eligibility for early medical abortion using an online gestational age calculator. Women's acceptability, views and preferences of using mobile technology for gestational age (GA) determination were explored. No previous studies to ascertain the accuracy of online self-administered calculators in a non-clinical setting have been conducted. A convenience sample of abortion seekers were recruited from two health care clinics in Cape Town, South Africa in 2014. Seventy-eight women were enrolled and tasked with completing an online self-assessment by entering the first day of their last menstrual period (LMP) onto a website which calculated their GA. A short survey explored the feasibility and acceptability of employing m-Health technology in abortion services. Self-calculated GA was compared with ultrasound gestational age obtained from clinical records. Participant mean age was 28 (SD 6.8), 41% (32/78) had completed high school and 73% (57/78) reported owning a smart/feature phone. Internet searches for abortion information prior to clinic visit were undertaken by 19/78 (24%) women. Most participants found the online GA calculator easy to use (91%; 71/78); thought the calculation was accurate (86%; 67/78) and that it would be helpful when considering an abortion (94%; 73/78). Eighty-three percent (65/78) reported regular periods and recalled their LMP (71%; 55/78). On average women overestimated GA by 0.5 days (SD 14.5) and first sought an abortion 10 days (SD 14.3) after pregnancy confirmation. Timely access to information is an essential component of effective abortion services. Advances in the availability of mobile technology represent an opportunity to provide accurate and safe abortion information and services. Our findings indicate that an online GA calculator would be accurate and helpful. GA could be calculated based on LMP recall within an error of 0.5 days, which is not considered clinically significant. An online GA calculator could potentially act as an enabler for women to access safe abortion services sooner.

Mai Population

PubMed

Sripan, Patumrat; Sriplung, Hutcha; Pongnikorn, Donsuk; Virani, Shama; Bilheem, Surichai; Chaisaengkhaum, Udomlak; Maneesai, Puttachart; Waisri, Narate; Hanpragopsuk, Chirapong; Tansiri, Panrada; Khamsan, Varunee; Poungsombat, Malisa; Mawoot, Aumnart; Chitapanarux, Imjai

2017-05-01

Objectives: This study was conducted to determine incidence trends of female breast cancer according to age groups and to predict future change in Chiang Mai women through 2028. Method: Data were collected from all hospitals in Chiang Mai in northern Thailand, from 1989 through 2013, and used to investigate effects of age, year of diagnosis (period) and year of birth (cohort) on female breast cancer incidences using an age-period-cohort model. This model features geometric cut trends to predict change by young (<40 years), middle-aged (40-59) and elderly (≥60) age groups. Result: Of 5, 417 female breast cancer patients with a median age of 50 years (interquartile range: 43 to 59 years), 15%, 61% and 24% were young, middle-aged and elderly, respectively. Seventy nine percent of cancer cases in this study were detected at advanced stage. The trend in stage classification showed an increase in percentage of early stage and a decrease in metastatic cancers. Linear trends for cohort and period were not found in young females but were observed in middle-aged and elderly groups. Age-standardized rates (ASR) can be expected to remain stable around 6.8 per 100,000 women-years in young females. In the other age groups, the ASR trends were calculated to increase and reach peaks in 2024 of 120.2 and 138.2 per 100,000 women-years, respectively. Conclusion: Cohort effects or generation-specific effects, such as life style factors and the year of diagnosis (period) might have impacted on increased incidence in women aged over 40 years but not those under 40 years. A budget should be provided for treatment facilities and strategies to detect early stage cancers. The cost effectiveness of screening measures i.e. mammographic screening may need to be reconsidered for women age over 40 years. Creative Commons Attribution License

The biological age linked to oxidative stress modifies breast cancer aggressiveness.

PubMed

Sáez-Freire, María Del Mar; Blanco-Gómez, Adrián; Castillo-Lluva, Sonia; Gómez-Vecino, Aurora; Galvis-Jiménez, Julie Milena; Martín-Seisdedos, Carmen; Isidoro-García, María; Hontecillas-Prieto, Lourdes; García-Cenador, María Begoña; García-Criado, Francisco Javier; Patino-Alonso, María Carmen; Galindo-Villardón, Purificación; Mao, Jian-Hua; Prieto, Carlos; Castellanos-Martín, Andrés; Kaderali, Lars; Pérez-Losada, Jesús

2018-05-20

The incidence of breast cancer increases with age until menopause, and breast cancer is more aggressive in younger women. The existence of epidemiological links between breast cancer and aging indicates that both processes share some common mechanisms of development. Oxidative stress is associated with both cancer susceptibility and aging. Here we observed that ERBB2-positive breast cancer, which developed in genetically heterogeneous ERBB2-positive transgenic mice generated by a backcross, is more aggressive in chronologically younger than in older mice (differentiated by the median survival of the cohort that was 79 weeks), similar to what occurs in humans. In this cohort, we estimated the oxidative biological age using a mathematical model that integrated several subphenotypes directly or indirectly related to oxidative stress. The model selected the serum levels of HDL-cholesterol and magnesium and total AKT1 and glutathione concentrations in the liver. The grade of aging was calculated as the difference between the predicted biological age and the chronological age. This comparison permitted the identification of biologically younger and older mice compared with their chronological age. Interestingly, biologically older mice developed more aggressive breast cancer than the biologically younger mice. Genomic regions on chromosomes 2 and 15 linked to the grade of oxidative aging were identified. The levels of expression of Zbp1 located on chromosome 2, a gene related to necroptosis and inflammation, positively correlated with the grade of aging and tumour aggressiveness. Moreover, the pattern of gene expression of genes linked to the inflammation and the response to infection pathways was enriched in the livers of biologically old mice. This study shows part of the complex interactions between breast cancer and aging. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Using age-specific mortality of HIV infected persons to predict anti-retroviral treatment need: a comparative analysis of data from five African population-based cohort studies.

PubMed

Zaba, Basia; Kasamba, Ivan; Floyd, Sian; Isingo, Raphael; Herbst, Kobus; Bärnighausen, Till; Gregson, Simon; Nyamukapa, Constance; Kayuni, Ndoliwe; Todd, Jim; Marston, Milly; Wringe, Alison

2012-08-01

To present a simple method for estimating population-level anti-retroviral therapy (ART) need that does not rely on knowledge of past HIV incidence. A new approach to estimating ART need is developed based on calculating age-specific proportions of HIV-infected adults expected to die within a fixed number of years in the absence of treatment. Mortality data for HIV-infected adults in the pre-treatment era from five African HIV cohort studies were combined to construct a life table, starting at age 15, smoothed with a Weibull model. Assuming that ART should be made available to anyone expected to die within 3 years, conditional 3-year survival probabilities were computed to represent proportions needing ART. The build-up of ART need in a successful programme continuously recruiting infected adults into treatment as they age to within 3 years of expected death was represented by annually extending the conditional survival range. The Weibull model: survival probability in the infected state from age 15 = exp(-0.0073 × (age - 15)(1.69)) fitted the pooled age-specific mortality data very closely. Initial treatment need for infected persons increased rapidly with age, from 15% at age 20-24 to 32% at age 40-44 and 42% at age 60-64. Overall need in the treatment of naïve population was 24%, doubling within 5 years in a programme continually recruiting patients entering the high-risk period for dying. A reasonable projection of treatment need in an ART naive population can be made based on the age and gender profile of HIV-infected people. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Polygenic hazard score to guide screening for aggressive prostate cancer: development and validation in large scale cohorts.

PubMed

Seibert, Tyler M; Fan, Chun Chieh; Wang, Yunpeng; Zuber, Verena; Karunamuni, Roshan; Parsons, J Kellogg; Eeles, Rosalind A; Easton, Douglas F; Kote-Jarai, ZSofia; Al Olama, Ali Amin; Garcia, Sara Benlloch; Muir, Kenneth; Grönberg, Henrik; Wiklund, Fredrik; Aly, Markus; Schleutker, Johanna; Sipeky, Csilla; Tammela, Teuvo Lj; Nordestgaard, Børge G; Nielsen, Sune F; Weischer, Maren; Bisbjerg, Rasmus; Røder, M Andreas; Iversen, Peter; Key, Tim J; Travis, Ruth C; Neal, David E; Donovan, Jenny L; Hamdy, Freddie C; Pharoah, Paul; Pashayan, Nora; Khaw, Kay-Tee; Maier, Christiane; Vogel, Walther; Luedeke, Manuel; Herkommer, Kathleen; Kibel, Adam S; Cybulski, Cezary; Wokolorczyk, Dominika; Kluzniak, Wojciech; Cannon-Albright, Lisa; Brenner, Hermann; Cuk, Katarina; Saum, Kai-Uwe; Park, Jong Y; Sellers, Thomas A; Slavov, Chavdar; Kaneva, Radka; Mitev, Vanio; Batra, Jyotsna; Clements, Judith A; Spurdle, Amanda; Teixeira, Manuel R; Paulo, Paula; Maia, Sofia; Pandha, Hardev; Michael, Agnieszka; Kierzek, Andrzej; Karow, David S; Mills, Ian G; Andreassen, Ole A; Dale, Anders M

2018-01-10

To develop and validate a genetic tool to predict age of onset of aggressive prostate cancer (PCa) and to guide decisions of who to screen and at what age. Analysis of genotype, PCa status, and age to select single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with diagnosis. These polymorphisms were incorporated into a survival analysis to estimate their effects on age at diagnosis of aggressive PCa (that is, not eligible for surveillance according to National Comprehensive Cancer Network guidelines; any of Gleason score ≥7, stage T3-T4, PSA (prostate specific antigen) concentration ≥10 ng/L, nodal metastasis, distant metastasis). The resulting polygenic hazard score is an assessment of individual genetic risk. The final model was applied to an independent dataset containing genotype and PSA screening data. The hazard score was calculated for these men to test prediction of survival free from PCa. Multiple institutions that were members of international PRACTICAL consortium. All consortium participants of European ancestry with known age, PCa status, and quality assured custom (iCOGS) array genotype data. The development dataset comprised 31 747 men; the validation dataset comprised 6411 men. Prediction with hazard score of age of onset of aggressive cancer in validation set. In the independent validation set, the hazard score calculated from 54 single nucleotide polymorphisms was a highly significant predictor of age at diagnosis of aggressive cancer (z=11.2, P<10 -16 ). When men in the validation set with high scores (>98th centile) were compared with those with average scores (30th-70th centile), the hazard ratio for aggressive cancer was 2.9 (95% confidence interval 2.4 to 3.4). Inclusion of family history in a combined model did not improve prediction of onset of aggressive PCa (P=0.59), and polygenic hazard score performance remained high when family history was accounted for. Additionally, the positive predictive value of PSA screening for aggressive PCa was increased with increasing polygenic hazard score. Polygenic hazard scores can be used for personalised genetic risk estimates that can predict for age at onset of aggressive PCa. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Quantification of Contralateral Breast Dose and Risk Estimate of Radiation-Induced Contralateral Breast Cancer Among Young Women Using Tangential Fields and Different Modes of Breathing

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zurl, Brigitte, E-mail: brigitte.zurl@klinikum-graz.at; Stranzl, Heidi; Winkler, Peter

2013-02-01

Purpose: Whole breast irradiation with deep-inspiration breath-hold (DIBH) technique among left-sided breast cancer patients significantly reduces cardiac irradiation; however, a potential disadvantage is increased incidental irradiation of the contralateral breast. Methods and Materials: Contralateral breast dose (CBD) was calculated by comparing 400 treatment plans of 200 left-sided breast cancer patients whose tangential fields had been planned on gated and nongated CT data sets. Various anatomic and field parameters were analyzed for their impact on CBD. For a subgroup of patients (aged {<=}45 years) second cancer risk in the contralateral breast (CB) was modeled by applying the linear quadratic model, compoundmore » models, and compound models considering dose-volume information (DVH). Results: The mean CBD was significantly higher in DIBH with 0.69 Gy compared with 0.65 Gy in normal breathing (P=.01). The greatest impact on CBD was due to a shift of the inner field margin toward the CB in DIBH (mean 0.4 cm; range, 0-2), followed by field size in magnitude. Calculation with different risk models for CBC revealed values of excess relative risk/Gy ranging from 0.48-0.65 vs 0.46-0.61 for DIBH vs normal breathing, respectively. Conclusion: Contralateral breast dose, although within a low dose range, was mildly but significantly increased in 200 treatment plans generated under gated conditions, predominately due to a shift in the medial field margin. Risk modeling for CBC among women aged {<=}45 years also pointed to a higher risk when comparing DIBH with normal breathing. This risk, however, was substantially lower in the model considering DVH information. We think that clinical decisions should not be affected by this small increase in CBD with DIBH because DIBH is effective in reducing the dose to the heart in all patients.« less

Constructing fertility tables for Soviet populations.

PubMed

Mazur, D P

1976-02-01

Because the 1970 Soviet Union census does not provide information on the age structure of men and women separately by sex and according to their ethnic affiliation, the 1959 USSR census data serve as the basis to infer knowledge about ethnic fertility. The model takes into account (1) the total number of births in 1960, estimated from the child-woman ratio in 1959, (2) the age structure of women in 1959, and (3) the assumed pattern of age-specific birth rates structured in terms of the modal age at childbearing and the length of the fertility age span. The results show that Ukrainians among the Slav populations ranked as the lowest with 2.07 children born per woman. Their total fertility contrasts with that of Kazakhs native to Central Asia, who reportedly according to Soviet sources had 7.46 children per woman in 1958-1959, and whose estimated rate is around 8.59 children. Extreme variations appear in the estimates of fertility among nationalities of the Caucasus region, Volga Basin, and to a lesser degree in Siberia. Official Soviet calculations of crude birth rates and age-specific rates for 15 Union Republics in 1967-1968 are transcribed and compared with the estimates for nationalities in 1959-1960. The same theoretical model used to generate the Soviet rates may be adapted under different assumptions to non-Soviet populations in other situations where the data are scanty or incomplete.

Human age estimation combining third molar and skeletal development.

PubMed

Thevissen, P W; Kaur, J; Willems, G

2012-03-01

The wide prediction intervals obtained with age estimation methods based on third molar development could be reduced by combining these dental observations with age-related skeletal information. Therefore, on cephalometric radiographs, the most accurate age-estimating skeletal variable and related registration method were searched and added to a regression model, with age as response and third molar stages as explanatory variable. In a pilot set up on a dataset of 496 (283 M; 213 F) cephalometric radiographs, the techniques of Baccetti et al. (2005) (BA), Seedat et al. (2005) (SE), Caldas et al. (2007) and Rai et al. (2008) (RA) were verified. In the main study, data from 460 (208 F, 224 M) individuals in an age range between 3 and 26 years, for which at the same day an orthopantogram and a cephalogram were taken, were collected. On the orthopantomograms, the left third molar development was registered using the scoring system described by Gleiser and Hunt (1955) and modified by Köhler (1994) (GH). On the cephalograms, cervical vertebrae development was registered according to the BA and SE techniques. A regression model, with age as response and the GH scores as explanatory variable, was fitted to the data. Next, information of BA, SE and BA + SE was, respectively, added to this model. From all obtained models, the determination coefficients and the root mean squared errors were calculated. Inclusion of information from cephalograms based on the BA, as well as the SE, technique improved the amount of explained variance in age acquired from panoramic radiographs using the GH technique with 48%. Inclusion of cephalometric BA + SE information marginally improved the previous result (+1%). The RMSE decreased with 1.93, 1.85 and 2.03 years by adding, respectively, BA, SE and BA + SE information to the GH model. The SE technique allows clinically the fastest and easiest registration of the degree of development of the cervical vertebrae. Therefore, the choice of technique to classify cervical vertebrae development in addition to third molar development is preferably the SE technique.

Preterm or not--an evaluation of estimates of gestational age in a cohort of women from Rural Papua New Guinea.

PubMed

Karl, Stephan; Li Wai Suen, Connie S N; Unger, Holger W; Ome-Kaius, Maria; Mola, Glen; White, Lisa; Wangnapi, Regina A; Rogerson, Stephen J; Mueller, Ivo

2015-01-01

Knowledge of accurate gestational age is required for comprehensive pregnancy care and is an essential component of research evaluating causes of preterm birth. In industrialised countries gestational age is determined with the help of fetal biometry in early pregnancy. Lack of ultrasound and late presentation to antenatal clinic limits this practice in low-resource settings. Instead, clinical estimators of gestational age are used, but their accuracy remains a matter of debate. In a cohort of 688 singleton pregnancies from rural Papua New Guinea, delivery gestational age was calculated from Ballard score, last menstrual period, symphysis-pubis fundal height at first visit and quickening as well as mid- and late pregnancy fetal biometry. Published models using sequential fundal height measurements and corrected last menstrual period to estimate gestational age were also tested. Novel linear models that combined clinical measurements for gestational age estimation were developed. Predictions were compared with the reference early pregnancy ultrasound (<25 gestational weeks) using correlation, regression and Bland-Altman analyses and ranked for their capability to predict preterm birth using the harmonic mean of recall and precision (F-measure). Average bias between reference ultrasound and clinical methods ranged from 0-11 days (95% confidence levels: 14-42 days). Preterm birth was best predicted by mid-pregnancy ultrasound (F-measure: 0.72), and neuromuscular Ballard score provided the least reliable preterm birth prediction (F-measure: 0.17). The best clinical methods to predict gestational age and preterm birth were last menstrual period and fundal height (F-measures 0.35). A linear model combining both measures improved prediction of preterm birth (F-measure: 0.58). Estimation of gestational age without ultrasound is prone to significant error. In the absence of ultrasound facilities, last menstrual period and fundal height are among the more reliable clinical measures. This study underlines the importance of strengthening ultrasound facilities and developing novel ways to estimate gestational age.

Reliability models applicable to space telescope solar array assembly system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Patil, S. A.

1986-01-01

A complex system may consist of a number of subsystems with several components in series, parallel, or combination of both series and parallel. In order to predict how well the system will perform, it is necessary to know the reliabilities of the subsystems and the reliability of the whole system. The objective of the present study is to develop mathematical models of the reliability which are applicable to complex systems. The models are determined by assuming k failures out of n components in a subsystem. By taking k = 1 and k = n, these models reduce to parallel and series models; hence, the models can be specialized to parallel, series combination systems. The models are developed by assuming the failure rates of the components as functions of time and as such, can be applied to processes with or without aging effects. The reliability models are further specialized to Space Telescope Solar Arrray (STSA) System. The STSA consists of 20 identical solar panel assemblies (SPA's). The reliabilities of the SPA's are determined by the reliabilities of solar cell strings, interconnects, and diodes. The estimates of the reliability of the system for one to five years are calculated by using the reliability estimates of solar cells and interconnects given n ESA documents. Aging effects in relation to breaks in interconnects are discussed.

Permeability-diffusivity modeling vs. fractional anisotropy on white matter integrity assessment and application in schizophrenia.

PubMed

Kochunov, P; Chiappelli, J; Hong, L E

2013-01-01

Diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) assumes a single pool of anisotropically diffusing water to calculate fractional anisotropy (FA) and is commonly used to ascertain white matter (WM) deficits in schizophrenia. At higher b-values, diffusion-signal decay becomes bi-exponential, suggesting the presence of two, unrestricted and restricted, water pools. Theoretical work suggests that semi-permeable cellular membrane rather than the presence of two physical compartments is the cause. The permeability-diffusivity (PD) parameters measured from bi-exponential modeling may offer advantages, over traditional DTI-FA, in identifying WM deficits in schizophrenia. Imaging was performed in N = 26/26 patients/controls (age = 20-61 years, average age = 40.5 ± 12.6). Imaging consisted of fifteen b-shells: b = 250-3800 s/mm(2) with 30 directions/shell, covering seven slices of mid-sagittal corpus callosum (CC) at 1.7 × 1.7 × 4.6 mm. 64-direction DTI was also collected. Permeability-diffusivity-index (PDI), the ratio of restricted to unrestricted apparent diffusion coefficients, and the fraction of unrestricted compartment (Mu) were calculated for CC and cingulate gray matter (GM). FA values for CC were calculated using tract-based-spatial-statistics. Patients had significantly reduced PDI in CC (p ≅ 10(- 4)) and cingulate GM (p = 0.002), while differences in CC FA were modest (p ≅ .03). There was no group-related difference in Mu. Additional theoretical-modeling analysis suggested that reduced PDI in patients may be caused by reduced cross-membrane water molecule exchanges. PDI measurements for cerebral WM and GM yielded more robust patient-control differences than DTI-FA. Theoretical work offers an explanation that patient-control PDI differences should implicate abnormal active membrane permeability. This would implicate abnormal activities in ion-channels that use water as substrate for ion exchange, in cerebral tissues of schizophrenia patients.

Modeling interchild differences in pharmacokinetics on the basis of subject-specific data on physiology and hepatic CYP2E1 levels: A case study with toluene

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nong, A.; McCarver, D.G.; Hines, R.N.

2006-07-01

The objective of the present study was to evaluate the magnitude of interindividual variability in the internal dose of toluene in children of various age groups, on the basis of subject-specific hepatic CYP2E1 content and physiology. The methodology involved the use of a previously validated physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model, in which the intrinsic clearance for hepatic metabolism (CL{sub int}) was expressed in terms of the CYP2E1 content. The adult toluene PBPK model, with enzyme content-normalized CL{sub int}, facilitated the calculation of child-specific CL{sub int} based on knowledge of hepatic CYP2E1 protein levels. The child-specific physiological parameters, except liver volume,more » were computed with knowledge of age and body weight, whereas physicochemical parameters for toluene were kept age-invariant based on available data. The actual individual-specific liver volume (autopsy data) was also included in the model. The resulting model was used to simulate the blood concentration profiles in children exposed by inhalation, to 1 ppm toluene for 24 h. For this exposure scenario, the area under the venous blood concentration vs. time curve (AUC) ranged from 0.30 to 1.01 {mu}g/ml x h in neonates with low CYP2E1 concentration (<3.69 pmol/mg protein). The simulations indicated that neonates with higher levels of CYP2E1 (4.33 to 55.93 pmol/mg protein) as well as older children would have lower AUC (0.16 to 0.43 {mu}g/ml x h). The latter values were closer to those simulated for adults. Similar results were also obtained for 7 h exposure to 17 ppm toluene, a scenario previously evaluated in human volunteers. The interindividual variability factor for each subgroup of children and adults, calculated as the ratio of the 95th and 50th percentile values of AUC, was within a factor of 2. The 95th percentile value of the low metabolizing neonate group, however, was greater than the mean adult AUC by a factor of 3.9. This study demonstrates the feasibility of incorporating subject-specific data on hepatic CYP2E1 content and physiology within PBPK models for evaluating the age, interchild and population variability of internal dose for use in risk assessment of inhaled volatile organics.« less

To test, or not to test: time for a MODY calculator?

PubMed

Njølstad, P R; Molven, A

2012-05-01

To test, or not to test, that is often the question in diabetes genetics. This is why the paper of Shields et al in the current issue of Diabetologia is so warmly welcomed. MODY is the most common form of monogenic diabetes. Nevertheless, the optimal way of identifying MODY families still poses a challenge both for researchers and clinicians. Hattersley's group in Exeter, UK, have developed an easy-to-use MODY prediction model that can help to identify cases appropriate for genetic testing. By answering eight simple questions on the internet ( www.diabetesgenes.org/content/mody-probability-calculator ), the doctor receives a positive predictive value in return: the probability that the patient has MODY. Thus, the classical binary (yes/no) assessment provided by clinical diagnostic criteria has been substituted by a more rational, quantitative estimate. The model appears to discriminate well between MODY and type 1 and type 2 diabetes when diabetes is diagnosed before the age of 35 years. However, the performance of the MODY probability calculator should now be validated in other settings than where it was developed-and, as always, there is room for some improvements and modifications.

Onion-shell model for cosmic ray electrons and radio synchrotron emission in supernova remnants

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Beck, R.; Drury, L. O.; Voelk, H. J.; Bogdan, T. J.

1985-01-01

The spectrum of cosmic ray electrons, accelerated in the shock front of a supernova remnant (SNR), is calculated in the test-particle approximation using an onion-shell model. Particle diffusion within the evolving remnant is explicity taken into account. The particle spectrum becomes steeper with increasing radius as well as SNR age. Simple models of the magnetic field distribution allow a prediction of the intensity and spectrum of radio synchrotron emission and their radial variation. The agreement with existing observations is satisfactory in several SNR's but fails in other cases. Radiative cooling may be an important effect, especially in SNR's exploding in a dense interstellar medium.

A mathematical model for predicting the adult height of girls with advanced puberty after spontaneous growth.

PubMed

Lemaire, Pierre; Pierre, Delphine; Bertrand, Jean-Baptiste; Brauner, Raja

2014-07-03

Advanced puberty in girls is defined as the onset of puberty between the ages of 8 yr and 10 yr. The objective was to predict adult height (AH) at initial evaluation and to characterize patients with an actual AH below -2 SD (152 cm) and/or lower than their target height (TH) by > one SD (5.6 cm). Data analysis using multiple linear regression models was performed in 50 girls with advanced puberty who reached their AH after spontaneous puberty. The actual AH (159.0 ± 6.1 cm) was similar to the TH (161.2 ± 4.6 cm) and to the AH predicted at the initial evaluation (160.8 ± 6.0 cm), and the actual AH correlated positively with both (R = 0.76, P = 0.0003; R = 0.71, P = 0.008, respectively).The AH was below 152 cm in 7 girls, of whom 3 were characterized by paternal transmission of the advanced puberty. The AH was lower than the TH by >5.6 cm in 8 girls.The AH (cm) could be calculated at the initial evaluation: 1.8822 age + 3.3510 height (SD) - 0.7465 bone age - 1.7993 pubic hair stage + 2.8409 TH (SD) + 150.32.The formula is available online at http://www.kamick.org/lemaire/med/girls-advpub.html.The calculated AH (159.0 ± 5.7 cm) and the actual AH were highly correlated (R = 0.93). The actual AH was lower than the calculated AH by > 0.5 SD in only one case (4.35 cm). We established a formula that can be used at an initial evaluation to predict the AH, and then to assess the risk of reduced AH as a result of advanced puberty. According to this formula, the actual AH was lower than the calculated AH by more than 2.8 cm (0.5 SD) in only one girl. The AHs of the untreated girls with advanced puberty did not differ from those predicted at the initial evaluation by the Bayley and Pinneau table or from the THs. However, this study provides a useful and ready-to-use formula that can be an additional assessment of girls with advanced puberty.

Ink dating using thermal desorption and gas chromatography/mass spectrometry: comparison of results obtained in two laboratories.

PubMed

Koenig, Agnès; Bügler, Jürgen; Kirsch, Dieter; Köhler, Fritz; Weyermann, Céline

2015-01-01

An ink dating method based on solvent analysis was recently developed using thermal desorption followed by gas chromatography/mass spectrometry (GC/MS) and is currently implemented in several forensic laboratories. The main aims of this work were to implement this method in a new laboratory to evaluate whether results were comparable at three levels: (i) validation criteria, (ii) aging curves, and (iii) results interpretation. While the results were indeed comparable in terms of validation, the method proved to be very sensitive to maintenances. Moreover, the aging curves were influenced by ink composition, as well as storage conditions (particularly when the samples were not stored in "normal" room conditions). Finally, as current interpretation models showed limitations, an alternative model based on slope calculation was proposed. However, in the future, a probabilistic approach may represent a better solution to deal with ink sample inhomogeneity. © 2014 American Academy of Forensic Science.

Energetics and Birth Rates of Supernova Remnants in the Large Magellanic Cloud

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leahy, D. A.

2017-03-01

Published X-ray emission properties for a sample of 50 supernova remnants (SNRs) in the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) are used as input for SNR evolution modeling calculations. The forward shock emission is modeled to obtain the initial explosion energy, age, and circumstellar medium density for each SNR in the sample. The resulting age distribution yields a SNR birthrate of 1/(500 yr) for the LMC. The explosion energy distribution is well fit by a log-normal distribution, with a most-probable explosion energy of 0.5× {10}51 erg, with a 1σ dispersion by a factor of 3 in energy. The circumstellar medium density distribution is broader than the explosion energy distribution, with a most-probable density of ˜0.1 cm-3. The shape of the density distribution can be fit with a log-normal distribution, with incompleteness at high density caused by the shorter evolution times of SNRs.

Solute segregation kinetics and dislocation depinning in a binary alloy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dontsova, E.; Rottler, J.; Sinclair, C. W.

2015-06-01

Static strain aging, a phenomenon caused by diffusion of solute atoms to dislocations, is an important contributor to the strength of substitutional alloys. Accurate modeling of this complex process requires both atomic spatial resolution and diffusional time scales, which is very challenging to achieve with commonly used atomistic computational methods. In this paper, we use the recently developed "diffusive molecular dynamics" (DMD) method that is capable of describing the kinetics of the solute segregation process at the atomic level while operating on diffusive time scales in a computationally efficient way. We study static strain aging in the Al-Mg system and calculate the depinning shear stress between edge and screw dislocations and their solute atmospheres formed for various waiting times with different solute content and for a range of temperatures. A simple phenomenological model is also proposed that describes the observed behavior of the critical shear stress as a function of segregation level.

Analysis of a kinetic multi-segment foot model part II: kinetics and clinical implications.

PubMed

Bruening, Dustin A; Cooney, Kevin M; Buczek, Frank L

2012-04-01

Kinematic multi-segment foot models have seen increased use in clinical and research settings, but the addition of kinetics has been limited and hampered by measurement limitations and modeling assumptions. In this second of two companion papers, we complete the presentation and analysis of a three segment kinetic foot model by incorporating kinetic parameters and calculating joint moments and powers. The model was tested on 17 pediatric subjects (ages 7-18 years) during normal gait. Ground reaction forces were measured using two adjacent force platforms, requiring targeted walking and the creation of two sub-models to analyze ankle, midtarsal, and 1st metatarsophalangeal joints. Targeted walking resulted in only minimal kinematic and kinetic differences compared with walking at self selected speeds. Joint moments and powers were calculated and ensemble averages are presented as a normative database for comparison purposes. Ankle joint powers are shown to be overestimated when using a traditional single-segment foot model, as substantial angular velocities are attributed to the mid-tarsal joint. Power transfer is apparent between the 1st metatarsophalangeal and mid-tarsal joints in terminal stance/pre-swing. While the measurement approach presented here is limited to clinical populations with only minimal impairments, some elements of the model can also be incorporated into routine clinical gait analysis. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Age dependent sex disproportion in US asthma hospitalization rates, 2000-2010.

PubMed

Lin, Robert Yao-wen; Ji, Rong; Liao, William

2013-09-01

Age-stratified sex differences in asthma hospitalizations rates have been reported to be most marked between the ages of 40 and 54 years in New York. It is not known whether age-dependent sex differences in asthma hospitalization rates also exist for the entire United States. To compare sex-specific hospitalization rates for asthma in adults in the United States and to describe the adjusted associations between female sex and age in the fifth to sixth decades of life. The National Inpatient Sample databases for 2000-2010 were queried for a principal diagnosis of asthma to calculate the ratio of female to male hospitalization rates for different decades of adult life. Logistic regression modeling was used to determine whether age in the fifth to sixth decades of life had associations with female sex that remained significant after adjusting for comorbidities and demographic features. For all years of the study, there was a distinct peaking in female to male ratio most manifested in the fifth to sixth decades of life. This age grouping was significantly associated with female sex. Models revealed that female sex was significantly associated with this age grouping, even after adjustment for obesity, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, race, insurance status, discharge year, and smoking. Excluding identifiable repeat admissions also did not abrogate the age grouping association. There is a striking propensity of women in their fifth to sixth decades of life to be admitted for asthma, which appears to be independent of many known comorbidities. Copyright © 2013 American College of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Determination of the uncertainties in radiation doses from ingestion of strontium-90

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Apostoaei, Andrei Iulian

Quantification of the uncertainties in the internal dosimetry is important because it can impact the outcome of dose reconstruction, risk assessment or epidemiological studies. This research focused on determination of the uncertainties in the dose factors from a single ingestion of 90Sr by adults, and analyzed the changes with age and the effect of gender. The uncertainties in the estimated dose factors are a factor of 6 for the bone surface, 5 for the red bone marrow, 2.5 for bladder and stomach, 2.2 for the small intestine, 2.1 for the upper large intestine and 2.7 for the lower large intestine. For the rest of the organs the uncertainty is a factor of 3. Only four parameters of the biokinetic model showed an age-dependency within the adult age group: the fractional transfers of strontium from plasma to cortical and trabecular bone, and the removal rates from the cortical and trabecular bone, respectively. When age-dependent biokinetic parameters were used, the estimated dose-factors are very close to the dose factors obtained using age-independent kinetics (within 40%). Thus, the dose factors based on age-independent parameters should suffice for most practical purposes. The dose factors and the associated uncertainties were also calculated as a function of age-at-exposure and attained age. These age dependent curves can be used for estimating doses from continuous intakes, or doses delivered over a limited portion of time. In addition to the committed dose, an expected dose is also estimated in this work. The expected dose is calculated using the dose rate weighted by the probability of surviving up to the age when the dose-rate is delivered. For exposure at young ages the expected dose and the committed dose are similar, but the committed dose decreases to zero when exposure occurs close to age 70, while the expected dose has elevated values pass age 70. No gender differences were found for bone surface, for red bone marrow, and the large intestine. The doses to the soft tissues for females are larger by 20% than the doses for males, because of the differences in the whole-body mass between males and females.

Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry: analysis of pediatric fat estimate errors due to tissue hydration effects.

PubMed

Testolin, C G; Gore, R; Rivkin, T; Horlick, M; Arbo, J; Wang, Z; Chiumello, G; Heymsfield, S B

2000-12-01

Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) percent (%) fat estimates may be inaccurate in young children, who typically have high tissue hydration levels. This study was designed to provide a comprehensive analysis of pediatric tissue hydration effects on DXA %fat estimates. Phase 1 was experimental and included three in vitro studies to establish the physical basis of DXA %fat-estimation models. Phase 2 extended phase 1 models and consisted of theoretical calculations to estimate the %fat errors emanating from previously reported pediatric hydration effects. Phase 1 experiments supported the two-compartment DXA soft tissue model and established that pixel ratio of low to high energy (R values) are a predictable function of tissue elemental content. In phase 2, modeling of reference body composition values from birth to age 120 mo revealed that %fat errors will arise if a "constant" adult lean soft tissue R value is applied to the pediatric population; the maximum %fat error, approximately 0.8%, would be present at birth. High tissue hydration, as observed in infants and young children, leads to errors in DXA %fat estimates. The magnitude of these errors based on theoretical calculations is small and may not be of clinical or research significance.

Economic evaluation of intensive chemotherapy with prophylactic granulocyte colony-stimulating factor for patients with high-risk early breast cancer in Japan.

PubMed

Ishiguro, Hiroshi; Kondo, Masahide; Hoshi, Shu-Ling; Takada, Masahiro; Nakamura, Seigo; Teramukai, Satoshi; Yanagihara, Kazuhiro; Toi, Masakazu

2010-02-01

This study assessed the cost-effectiveness and budget impact of third-generation chemotherapy regimens with prophylactic granulocyte colony-stimulating factor (G-CSF) relative to second-generation regimens without prophylactic G-CSF for patients with high-risk early breast cancer in Japan. We conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis with Markov modeling and calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for the comparison between second-generation regimens without prophylactic G-CSF and third-generation regimens with prophylactic G-CSF. The comparisons consisted of fluorouracil, doxorubicin, and cyclophosphamide, a second-generation regimen, versus docetaxel, doxorubicin, and cyclophosphamide (TAC) with G-CSF, a third-generation regimen; and doxorubicin, cyclophosphamide, and paclitaxel (AC-T) q3wk, a second-generation regimen, versus dose-dense (DD) AC-T q2wk with G-CSF, a third-generation regimen. Patients were stratified by the age at which chemotherapy was started into cohorts aged 35, 45, and 55 years. Outcomes were estimated in terms of life-years (LYs) and quality-adjusted LYs (QALYs). ICER calculations were done from a societal perspective. We also estimated the budget impact, which included the additional public medical expenditures that would cover all subsequent changes after the additional cost of choosing third-generation regimens if G-CSF were approved for use in third-generation regimens for breast cancer. Costs were calculated using prescription drug prices as of 2006. Estimated ICER values for TAC with prophylactic G-CSF were yen956,471/LY and yen919,443/ QALY for age 35 years, yen1,125,540/LY and yen1,078,967/QALY for age 45 years, and yen1,302,746/LY and yen1,224,896/QALY for age 55 years. Values for DD AC-T q2wk with prophylactic G-CSF were yen291,931/LY and yen311,232/QALY for age 35 years, yen357,354/LY and yen380,148/QALY for age 45 years, and yen377,011/LY and yen399,761/QALY for age 55 years. TAC or DD AC-T q2wk with prophylactic G-CSF would yield cost savings compared with the respective second-generation regimens if the per-dose cost of G-CSF decreased from yen31,355 to yen15,700 (TAC) or to yen24,300 (DD AC-T). The estimated budget impact is yen9.5 to yen11.0 billion per year for the next 5 years. According to a Markov model for patients with high-risk early breast cancer in Japan, third-generation regimens with prophylactic G-CSF will yield improved outcomes at a greater cost, but estimated ICER values are still less than the suggested cost-effectiveness threshold value of yen6 million (US $60,000, assuming US $1 = yen100) for a gain of 1 QALY. Copyright 2010. Published by EM Inc USA.

Detrusor expulsive strength is preserved, but responsiveness to bladder filling and urinary sensitivity is diminished in the aging mouse

PubMed Central

DeAngelis, Anthony; Kuchel, George A.

2012-01-01

The prevalence of urinary symptoms increases with age and is a significant source of distress, morbidity, and expense in the elderly. Recent evidence suggests that symptoms in the aged may result from sensory dysfunction, rather than abnormalities of detrusor performance. Therefore, we employed a pressure/flow multichannel urethane-anesthetized mouse cystometry model to test the hypothesis that in vivo detrusor performance does not degrade with aging. Secondarily, we sought to evaluate sensory responsiveness to volume using pressure-volume data generated during bladder filling. Cystometric data from 2-, 12-, 22-, and 26-mo-old female C57BL6 mice were compared. All 2- and 12-mo-old mice, 66% of 22-mo-old mice, and 50% of 26-mo-old mice responded to continuous bladder filling with periodic reflex voiding. Abdominal wall contraction with voiding had a minimal contribution to expulsive pressure, whereas compliance pressure was a significant contributor. Maximum bladder pressure, estimated detrusor pressure, detrusor impulse (pressure-time integral), as well as indices of detrusor power and work, did not decrease with aging. Bladder precontraction pressures decreased, compliance increased, and nonvoiding contraction counts did not change with increasing age. Intervoid intervals, per-void volumes, and voiding flow rates increased with age. Calculations approximating wall stress during filling suggested loss of bladder volume sensitivity with increasing age. We conclude that aging is associated with an impaired ability to respond to the challenge of continuous bladder filling with cyclic voiding, yet among responsive animals, voiding detrusor contraction strength does not degrade with aging in this murine model. Furthermore, indirect measures suggest that bladder volume sensitivity is diminished. Thus, changes in homeostatic reserve and peripheral and/or central sensory mechanisms may be important contributors to aging-associated changes in bladder function. PMID:22204955

Eruption history of the Tharsis shield volcanoes, Mars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Plescia, J. B.

1993-01-01

The Tharsis Montes volcanoes and Olympus Mons are giant shield volcanoes. Although estimates of their average surface age have been made using crater counts, the length of time required to build the shields has not been considered. Crater counts for the volcanoes indicate the constructs are young; average ages are Amazonian to Hesperian. In relative terms; Arsia Mons is the oldest, Pavonis Mons intermediate, and Ascreaus Mons the youngest of the Tharsis Montes shield; Olympus Mons is the youngest of the group. Depending upon the calibration, absolute ages range from 730 Ma to 3100 Ma for Arsia Mons and 25 Ma to 100 Ma for Olympus Mons. These absolute chronologies are highly model dependent, and indicate only the time surficial volcanism ceased, not the time over which the volcano was built. The problem of estimating the time necessary to build the volcanoes can be attacked in two ways. First, eruption rates from terrestrial and extraterrestrial examples can be used to calculate the required period of time to build the shields. Second, some relation of eruptive activity between the volcanoes can be assumed, such as they all began at a speficic time or they were active sequentially, and calculate the eruptive rate. Volumes of the shield volcanoes were derived from topographic/volume data.

Bayesian prediction of lung and breast cancer mortality among women in Spain (2014-2020).

PubMed

Martín-Sánchez, Juan Carlos; Clèries, Ramon; Lidón, Cristina; González-de Paz, Luís; Lunet, Nuno; Martínez-Sánchez, Jose M

2016-08-01

Breast cancer (BC) is the main cause of cancer mortality among women, and mortality from lung cancer (LC) is increasing among women. The purpose of the present study was to project the mortality rates of both cancers and predict when LC mortality will exceed BC mortality. The cancer mortality data and female population distribution were obtained from the Spanish National Statistics Institute. Crude rate (CR), age-standardized rate (ASR), and age-specific rate were calculated for the period 1980-2013 and projected for the period 2014-2020 using a Bayesian log-linear Poisson model. All calculated rates were greater for BC than for LC in 2013 (CR, 27.3 versus 17.3; ASR, 13.5 versus 9.3), and the CR was not projected to change by 2020 (29.2 versus 27.6). The ASR for LC is expected to surpass that of BC in 2019 (12.9 versus 12.7). By 2020 the LC mortality rates may exceed those of BC for ages 55-74 years, possibly because of the prevalence of smoking among women, and the screening for and more effective treatment of BC. BC screening could be a good opportunity to help smokers quit by offering counseling and behavioral intervention. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comparison of rehospitalization rates in France and the United States.

PubMed

Gusmano, Michael; Rodwin, Victor; Weisz, Daniel; Cottenet, Jonathan; Quantin, Catherine

2015-01-01

To compare rates of 30-day all-cause rehospitalization in France and the US among patients aged 65 years and older and explain any difference between the countries. To calculate rehospitalization rates in France, we use an individual identifying variable in the national hospital administrative dataset to track unique individuals aged 65 years or more hospitalized in France in 2010. To calculate the proportion of rehospitalized patients (65+) who received outpatient visits between the time of initial discharge and rehospitalization, we linked the hospital database with a database that includes all medical and surgical admissions. We used step by step regression models to predict rehospitalization. Rates of rehospitalization in France (14.7%) are lower than among Medicare beneficiaries in the US (20%). We find that age, sex, patient morbidity and the ownership status of the hospital are all correlated with rehospitalization in France. Lower rates of rehospitalization in France appear to be due to a combination of better access to primary care, better health among the older French population, longer lengths of stay in French hospitals and the fact that French nursing homes do not face the same financial incentive to rehospitalize residents. © The Author(s) 2014 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav.

Unprecedented last-glacial mass accumulation rates determined by luminescence dating of loess from western Nebraska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Roberts, H.M.; Muhs, D.R.; Wintle, A.G.; Duller, G.A.T.; Bettis, E. Arthur

2003-01-01

A high-resolution chronology for Peoria (last glacial period) Loess from three sites in Nebraska, midcontinental North America, is determined by applying optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating to 35-50 ??m quartz. At Bignell Hill, Nebraska, an OSL age of 25,000 yr near the contact of Peoria Loess with the underlying Gilman Canyon Formation shows that dust accumulation occurred early during the last glacial maximum (LGM), whereas at Devil's Den and Eustis, Nebraska, basal OSL ages are significantly younger (18,000 and 21,000 yr, respectively). At all three localities, dust accumulation ended at some time after 14,000 yr ago. Mass accumulation rates (MARs) for western Nebraska, calculated using the OSL ages, are extremely high from 18,000 to 14,000 yr-much higher than those calculated for any other pre-Holocene location worldwide. These unprecedented MARs coincide with the timing of a mismatch between paleoenvironmental evidence from central North America, and the paleoclimate simulations from atmospheric global circulation models (AGCMs). We infer that the high atmospheric dust loading implied by these MARs may have played an important role, through radiative forcing, in maintaining a colder-than-present climate over central North America for several thousand years after summer insolation exceeded present-day values. ?? 2003 Elsevier Science (USA). All rights reserved.

Extraction and development of inset models in support of groundwater age calculations for glacial aquifers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Feinstein, Daniel T.; Kauffman, Leon J.; Haserodt, Megan J.; Clark, Brian R.; Juckem, Paul F.

2018-06-22

The U.S. Geological Survey developed a regional model of Lake Michigan Basin (LMB). This report describes the construction of five MODFLOW inset models extracted from the LMB regional model and their application using the particle-tracking code MODPATH to simulate the groundwater age distribution of discharge to wells pumping from glacial deposits. The five study areas of the inset model correspond to 8-digit hydrologic unit code (HUC8) basins. Two of the basins are tributary to Lake Michigan from the east, two are tributary to the lake from the west, and one is just west of the western boundary of the Lake Michigan topographic basin. The inset models inherited many of the inputs to the parent LMB model, including the hydrostratigraphy and layering scheme, the hydraulic conductivity assigned to bedrock layers, recharge distribution, and water use in the form of pumping rates from glacial and bedrock wells. The construction of the inset models entailed modifying some inputs, most notably the grid spacing (reduced from cells 5,000 feet on a side in the parent LMB model to 500 feet on a side in the inset models). The refined grid spacing allowed for more precise location of pumped wells and more detailed simulation of groundwater/surface-water interactions. The glacial hydraulic conductivity values, the top bedrock surface elevation, and the surface-water network input to the inset models also were modified. The inset models are solved using the MODFLOW–NWT code, which allows for more robust handling of conditions in unconfined aquifers than previous versions of MODFLOW. Comparison of the MODFLOW inset models reveals that they incorporate a range of hydrogeologic conditions relative to the glacial part of the flow system, demonstrated by visualization and analysis of model inputs and outputs and reflected in the range of ages generated by MODPATH for existing and hypothetical glacial wells. Certain inputs and outputs are judged to be candidate predictors that, if treated statistically, may be capable of explaining much of the variance in the simulated age metrics. One example of a predictor that model results indicate strongly affects simulated age is the depth of the well open interval below the simulated water table. The strength of this example variable as an overall predictor of groundwater age and its relation to other predictors can be statistically tested through the metamodeling process. In this way the inset models are designed to serve as a training area for metamodels that estimate groundwater age in glacial wells, which in turn will contribute to ongoing studies, under the direction of the U.S. Geological Survey National Water Quality Assessment, of contaminant susceptibility of shallow groundwater across the glacial aquifer system.

Comparative Longterm Mortality Trends in Cancer vs. Ischemic Heart Disease in Puerto Rico.

PubMed

Torres, David; Pericchi, Luis R; Mattei, Hernando; Zevallos, Juan C

2017-06-01

Although contemporary mortality data are important for health assessment and planning purposes, their availability lag several years. Statistical projection techniques can be employed to obtain current estimates. This study aimed to assess annual trends of mortality in Puerto Rico due to cancer and Ischemic Heart Disease (IHD), and to predict shorterm and longterm cancer and IHD mortality figures. Age-adjusted mortality per 100,000 population projections with a 50% interval probability were calculated utilizing a Bayesian statistical approach of Age-Period-Cohort dynamic model. Multiple cause-of-death annual files for years 1994-2010 for Puerto Rico were used to calculate shortterm (2011-2012) predictions. Longterm (2013-2022) predictions were based on quinquennial data. We also calculated gender differences in rates (men-women) for each study period. Mortality rates for women were similar for cancer and IHD in the 1994-1998 period, but changed substantially in the projected 2018-2022 period. Cancer mortality rates declined gradually overtime, and the gender difference remained constant throughout the historical and projected trends. A consistent declining trend for IHD historical annual mortality rate was observed for both genders, with a substantial changepoint around 2004-2005 for men. The initial gender difference of 33% (80/100,00 vs. 60/100,000) in mortality rates observed between cancer and IHD in the 1994-1998 period increased to 300% (60/100,000 vs. 20/100,000) for the 2018-2022 period. The APC projection model accurately projects shortterm and longterm mortality trends for cancer and IHD in this population: The steady historical and projected cancer mortality rates contrasts with the substantial decline in IHD mortality rates, especially in men.

Downslope transport does not explain higher 230Th inventories in the Panama Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, A. K.; Marcantonio, F.; Lyle, M. W.

2009-12-01

Mass accumulation rates (burial fluxes) in the Panama Basin calculated using oxygen isotope age models differ from those calculated using the 230Th normalized flux method. During the Holocene and the last glacial, the 230Th-derived MARs are consistently lower than age-model-derived MARs. Most importantly, using both methods, glacial MARs are always significantly higher than Holocene MARs. The discrepancy in the calculated MARs may be due to deep-ocean sediment redistribution processes, specifically downslope transport of sediments from nearby topographic highs [1]. We test this hypothesis by analyzing sediment from shallower sites throughout the Panama basin (from 712-2870 meters) and, specifically, from the tops of ridges surrounding the basin (e.g., Carnegie and Cocos Ridges). Based on 230Th methodology we determine ridge-top focusing factors (FF) that are as high as, or higher than those in the deeper parts of the basin, as determined by us or others [1]. The excess inventories of 230Th are also proportionally higher during the glacial versus Holocene in all but one of the nine new sites we have analyzed. If the source of the higher-than-predicted inventory of 230Th is topographic highs in the region, one would expect to see a correlation between 230Th and depth. We find no such correlation. Although our data suggest that within-basin topographic highs are not the source of higher 230Th inventories in the region, extrabasinal sources cannot be ruled out. In addition, there is the possibility that MARs can be underestimated using the 230Th method in Panama Basin sediments. [1] Kienast et al. 2007, Paleoceanography 22, 2213.

Growth charts of human development.

PubMed

van Buuren, Stef

2014-08-01

This article reviews and compares two types of growth charts for tracking human development over age. Both charts assume the existence of a continuous latent variable, but relate to the observed data in different ways. The D-score diagram summarizes developmental indicators into a single aggregate score measuring global development. The relations between the indicators should be consistent with the Rasch model. If true, the D-score is a measure with interval scale properties, and allows for the calculation of meaningful differences both within and across age. The stage line diagram describes the natural development of ordinal indicators. The method models the transition probabilities between successive stages of the indicator as smoothly varying functions of age. The location of each stage is quantified by the mid-P-value. Both types of diagrams assist in identifying early and delayed development, as well as finding differences in tempo. The relevant techniques are illustrated to track global development during infancy and early childhood (0-2 years) and Tanner pubertal stages (8-21 years). New reference values for both applications are provided. © The Author(s) 2013 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav.

Undernutrition as an underlying cause of child deaths associated with diarrhea, pneumonia, malaria, and measles.

PubMed

Caulfield, Laura E; de Onis, Mercedes; Blössner, Monika; Black, Robert E

2004-07-01

Previous analyses derived the relative risk (RR) of dying as a result of low weight-for-age and calculated the proportion of child deaths worldwide attributable to underweight. The objectives were to examine whether the risk of dying because of underweight varies by cause of death and to estimate the fraction of deaths by cause attributable to underweight. Data were obtained from investigators of 10 cohort studies with both weight-for-age category (<-3 SDs, -3 to <-2 SDs, -2 to <-1 SD, and >-1 SD) and cause of death information. All 10 studies contributed information on weight-for-age and risk of diarrhea, pneumonia, and all-cause mortality; however, only 6 studies contributed information on deaths because of measles, and only 3 studies contributed information on deaths because of malaria or fever. With use of weighted random effects models, we related the log mortality rate by cause and anthropometric status in each study to derive cause-specific RRs of dying because of undernutrition. Prevalences of each weight-for-age category were obtained from analyses of 310 national nutrition surveys. With use of the RR and prevalence information, we then calculated the fraction of deaths by cause attributable to undernutrition. The RR of mortality because of low weight-for-age was elevated for each cause of death and for all-cause mortality. Overall, 52.5% of all deaths in young children were attributable to undernutrition, varying from 44.8% for deaths because of measles to 60.7% for deaths because of diarrhea. A significant proportion of deaths in young children worldwide is attributable to low weight-for-age, and efforts to reduce malnutrition should be a policy priority.

Reconstructing merger timelines using star cluster age distributions: the case of MCG+08-11-002

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davies, Rebecca L.; Medling, Anne M.; U, Vivian; Max, Claire E.; Sanders, David; Kewley, Lisa J.

2016-05-01

We present near-infrared imaging and integral field spectroscopy of the centre of the dusty luminous infrared galaxy merger MCG+08-11-002, taken using the Near InfraRed Camera 2 (NIRC2) and the OH-Suppressing InfraRed Imaging Spectrograph (OSIRIS) on Keck II. We achieve a spatial resolution of ˜25 pc in the K band, allowing us to resolve 41 star clusters in the NIRC2 images. We calculate the ages of 22/25 star clusters within the OSIRIS field using the equivalent widths of the CO 2.3 μm absorption feature and the Br γ nebular emission line. The star cluster age distribution has a clear peak at ages ≲ 20 Myr, indicative of current starburst activity associated with the final coalescence of the progenitor galaxies. There is a possible second peak at ˜65 Myr which may be a product of the previous close passage of the galaxy nuclei. We fit single and double starburst models to the star cluster age distribution and use Monte Carlo sampling combined with two-sided Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests to calculate the probability that the observed data are drawn from each of the best-fitting distributions. There is a >90 per cent chance that the data are drawn from either a single or double starburst star formation history, but stochastic sampling prevents us from distinguishing between the two scenarios. Our analysis of MCG+08-11-002 indicates that star cluster age distributions provide valuable insights into the timelines of galaxy interactions and may therefore play an important role in the future development of precise merger stage classification systems.

Prevalence of neovascular age-related macular degeneration and geographic atrophy in Denmark.

PubMed

Sedeh, Farnam Barati; Scott, Daniel Andrew Richard; Subhi, Yousif; Sørensen, Torben Lykke

2017-11-01

In Denmark, age-related macular degeneration (AMD) is the most common cause of blindness. To better understand current and future challenges, we estimated and projected the annual number of patients with neovascular AMD and geographic atrophy in Denmark from 2016 to 2060. Detailed age- and gender-stratified prevalence estimates of neovascular AMD and geographic atrophy in a Scandinavian population were identified and applied to age- and gender-stratified population numbers provided by Statistics Denmark. Prevalence estimates were calculated for each year from 2016 to 2060. Future forecasts were provided by Statistics Denmark and based on calculations by the Danish Institute for Economic Modelling and Forecasting. We estimated that there are currently ~30,000 patients with neovascular AMD and ~21,000 patients with geographic atrophy in Denmark. The majority of these patients are persons aged ≥ 85 years. For neovascular AMD, the number of patients will grow to ~33,000 in 2020, ~58,000 in 2040 and ~72,000 in 2060. For geographic atrophy, the number of patients will grow to ~23,000 in 2020, ~41,000 in 2040, and ~50,000 in 2060. We expect a steady growth in the prevalence of neovascular AMD and geographic atrophy in Denmark due to an ageing population. These numbers emphasise the importance of disease prevention, careful planning of health service activities and continuing research. none. not relevant. Articles published in the DMJ are “open access”. This means that the articles are distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-commercial License, which permits any non-commercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author(s) and source are credited.

Breast cancer mortality and associated factors in São Paulo State, Brazil: an ecological analysis.

PubMed

Diniz, Carmen Simone Grilo; Pellini, Alessandra Cristina Guedes; Ribeiro, Adeylson Guimarães; Tedardi, Marcello Vannucci; Miranda, Marina Jorge de; Touso, Michelle Mosna; Baquero, Oswaldo Santos; Santos, Patrícia Carlos Dos; Chiaravalloti-Neto, Francisco

2017-08-23

Identify the factors associated with the age-standardised breast cancer mortality rate in the municipalities of State of São Paulo (SSP), Brazil, in the period from 2006 to 2012. Ecological study of the breast cancer mortality rate standardised by age, as the dependent variable, having each of the 645 municipalities in the SSP as the unit of analysis. The female resident population aged 15 years or older, by age group and municipality, in 2009 (mid-term), obtained from public dataset (Informatics Department of the Unified Health System). Women 15 years or older who died of breast cancer in the SSP were selected for the calculation of the breast cancer mortality rate, according to the municipality and age group, from 2006 to 2012. Mortality rates for each municipality calculated by the direct standardisation method, using the age structure of the population of SSP in 2009 as the standard. In the final linear regression model, breast cancer mortality, in the municipal level, was directly associated with rates of nulliparity (p<0.0001), mammography (p<0.0001) and private healthcare (p=0.006). The findings that mammography ratio was associated, in the municipal level, with increased mortality add to the evidence of a probable overestimation of benefits and underestimation of risks associated with this form of screening. The same paradoxical trend of increased mortality with screening was found in recent individual-level studies, indicating the need to expand informed choice for patients, primary prevention actions and individualised screening. Additional studies should be conducted to explore if there is a causality link in this association. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Breast cancer mortality and associated factors in São Paulo State, Brazil: an ecological analysis

PubMed Central

Diniz, Carmen Simone Grilo; Pellini, Alessandra Cristina Guedes; Ribeiro, Adeylson Guimarães; Tedardi, Marcello Vannucci; de Miranda, Marina Jorge; Touso, Michelle Mosna; Baquero, Oswaldo Santos; dos Santos, Patrícia Carlos

2017-01-01

Objective Identify the factors associated with the age-standardised breast cancer mortality rate in the municipalities of State of São Paulo (SSP), Brazil, in the period from 2006 to 2012. Design Ecological study of the breast cancer mortality rate standardised by age, as the dependent variable, having each of the 645 municipalities in the SSP as the unit of analysis. Settings The female resident population aged 15 years or older, by age group and municipality, in 2009 (mid-term), obtained from public dataset (Informatics Department of the Unified Health System). Participants Women 15 years or older who died of breast cancer in the SSP were selected for the calculation of the breast cancer mortality rate, according to the municipality and age group, from 2006 to 2012. Main outcome measures Mortality rates for each municipality calculated by the direct standardisation method, using the age structure of the population of SSP in 2009 as the standard. Results In the final linear regression model, breast cancer mortality, in the municipal level, was directly associated with rates of nulliparity (p<0.0001), mammography (p<0.0001) and private healthcare (p=0.006). Conclusions The findings that mammography ratio was associated, in the municipal level, with increased mortality add to the evidence of a probable overestimation of benefits and underestimation of risks associated with this form of screening. The same paradoxical trend of increased mortality with screening was found in recent individual-level studies, indicating the need to expand informed choice for patients, primary prevention actions and individualised screening. Additional studies should be conducted to explore if there is a causality link in this association. PMID:28838894

Associations between Verbal Learning Slope and Neuroimaging Markers across the Cognitive Aging Spectrum.

PubMed

Gifford, Katherine A; Phillips, Jeffrey S; Samuels, Lauren R; Lane, Elizabeth M; Bell, Susan P; Liu, Dandan; Hohman, Timothy J; Romano, Raymond R; Fritzsche, Laura R; Lu, Zengqi; Jefferson, Angela L

2015-07-01

A symptom of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a flat learning profile. Learning slope calculation methods vary, and the optimal method for capturing neuroanatomical changes associated with MCI and early AD pathology is unclear. This study cross-sectionally compared four different learning slope measures from the Rey Auditory Verbal Learning Test (simple slope, regression-based slope, two-slope method, peak slope) to structural neuroimaging markers of early AD neurodegeneration (hippocampal volume, cortical thickness in parahippocampal gyrus, precuneus, and lateral prefrontal cortex) across the cognitive aging spectrum [normal control (NC); (n=198; age=76±5), MCI (n=370; age=75±7), and AD (n=171; age=76±7)] in ADNI. Within diagnostic group, general linear models related slope methods individually to neuroimaging variables, adjusting for age, sex, education, and APOE4 status. Among MCI, better learning performance on simple slope, regression-based slope, and late slope (Trial 2-5) from the two-slope method related to larger parahippocampal thickness (all p-values<.01) and hippocampal volume (p<.01). Better regression-based slope (p<.01) and late slope (p<.01) were related to larger ventrolateral prefrontal cortex in MCI. No significant associations emerged between any slope and neuroimaging variables for NC (p-values ≥.05) or AD (p-values ≥.02). Better learning performances related to larger medial temporal lobe (i.e., hippocampal volume, parahippocampal gyrus thickness) and ventrolateral prefrontal cortex in MCI only. Regression-based and late slope were most highly correlated with neuroimaging markers and explained more variance above and beyond other common memory indices, such as total learning. Simple slope may offer an acceptable alternative given its ease of calculation.

Exploring water cycle dynamics by sampling multiple stable water isotope pools in a developed landscape in Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orlowski, Natalie; Kraft, Philipp; Pferdmenges, Jakob; Breuer, Lutz

2016-09-01

A dual stable water isotope (δ2H and δ18O) study was conducted in the developed (managed) landscape of the Schwingbach catchment (Germany). The 2-year weekly to biweekly measurements of precipitation, stream, and groundwater isotopes revealed that surface and groundwater are isotopically disconnected from the annual precipitation cycle but showed bidirectional interactions between each other. Apparently, snowmelt played a fundamental role for groundwater recharge explaining the observed differences to precipitation δ values. A spatially distributed snapshot sampling of soil water isotopes at two soil depths at 52 sampling points across different land uses (arable land, forest, and grassland) revealed that topsoil isotopic signatures were similar to the precipitation input signal. Preferential water flow paths occurred under forested soils, explaining the isotopic similarities between top- and subsoil isotopic signatures. Due to human-impacted agricultural land use (tilling and compression) of arable and grassland soils, water delivery to the deeper soil layers was reduced, resulting in significant different isotopic signatures. However, the land use influence became less pronounced with depth and soil water approached groundwater δ values. Seasonally tracing stable water isotopes through soil profiles showed that the influence of new percolating soil water decreased with depth as no remarkable seasonality in soil isotopic signatures was obvious at depths > 0.9 m and constant values were observed through space and time. Since classic isotope evaluation methods such as transfer-function-based mean transit time calculations did not provide a good fit between the observed and calculated data, we established a hydrological model to estimate spatially distributed groundwater ages and flow directions within the Vollnkirchener Bach subcatchment. Our model revealed that complex age dynamics exist within the subcatchment and that much of the runoff must has been stored for much longer than event water (average water age is 16 years). Tracing stable water isotopes through the water cycle in combination with our hydrological model was valuable for determining interactions between different water cycle components and unravelling age dynamics within the study area. This knowledge can further improve catchment-specific process understanding of developed, human-impacted landscapes.

Thermal thickness and evolution of Precambrian lithosphere: A global study

USGS Publications Warehouse

Artemieva, I.M.; Mooney, W.D.

2001-01-01

The thermal thickness of Precambrian lithosphere is modeled and compared with estimates from seismic tomography and xenolith data. We use the steady state thermal conductivity equation with the same geothermal constraints for all of the Precambrian cratons (except Antarctica) to calculate the temperature distribution in the stable continental lithosphere. The modeling is based on the global compilation of heat flow data by Pollack et al. [1993] and more recent data. The depth distribution of heat-producing elements is estimated using regional models for ???300 blocks with sizes varying from 1?? ?? 1?? to about 5?? ?? 5?? in latitude and longitude and is constrained by laboratory, seismic and petrologic data and, where applicable, empirical heat flow/heat production relationships. Maps of the lateral temperature distribution at depths 50, 100, and 150 km are presented for all continents except Antarctica. The thermal thickness of the lithosphere is calculated assuming a conductive layer overlying the mantle with an adiabat of 1300??C. The Archean and early Proterozoic lithosphere is found to have two typical thicknesses, 200-220 km and 300-350 km. In general, thin (???220 km) roots are found for Archean and early Proterozoic cratons in the Southern Hemisphere (South Africa, Western Australia, South America, and India) and thicker (>300 km) roots are found in the Northern Hemisphere (Baltic Shield, Siberian Platform, West Africa, and possibly the Canadian Shield). We find that the thickness of continental lithosphere generally decreases with age from >200 km beneath Archean cratons to intermediate values of 200 ?? 50 km in early Proterozoic lithosphere, to about 140 ?? 50 km in middle and late Proterozoic cratons. Using known crustal thickness, our calculated geotherms, and assuming that isostatic balance is achieved at the base of the lithosphere, we find that Archean and early Proterozoic mantle lithosphere is 1.5% less dense (chemically depleted) than the underlying asthenosphere, while middle and late Proterozoic subcrustal lithosphere should be depleted by ???0.6-0.7%. Our results suggest three contrasting stages of lithosphere formation at the following ages: >2.5 Ga, 2.5-1.8 Ga, and <1.8 Ga. Ages of komatiites, greenstone belts, and giant dike swarms broadly define similar stages and apparently reflect secular changes in mantle temperature and, possibly, convection patterns.

Validation of a White-light 3D Body Volume Scanner to Assess Body Composition.

PubMed

Medina-Inojosa, Jose; Somers, Virend; Jenkins, Sarah; Zundel, Jennifer; Johnson, Lynne; Grimes, Chassidy; Lopez-Jimenez, Francisco

2017-01-01

Estimating body fat content has shown to be a better predictor of adiposity-related cardiovascular risk than the commonly used body mass index (BMI). The white-light 3D body volume index (BVI) scanner is a non-invasive device normally used in the clothing industry to assess body shapes and sizes. We assessed the hypothesis that volume obtained by BVI is comparable to the volume obtained by air displacement plethysmography (Bod-Pod) and thus capable of assessing body fat mass using the bi-compartmental principles of body composition. We compared BVI to Bod-pod, a validated bicompartmental method to assess body fat percent that uses pressure/volume relationships in isothermal conditions to estimate body volume. Volume is then used to calculate body density (BD) applying the formula density=Body Mass/Volume. Body fat mass percentage is then calculated using the Siri formula (4.95/BD - 4.50) × 100. Subjects were undergoing a wellness evaluation. Measurements from both devices were obtained the same day. A prediction model for total Bod-pod volume was developed using linear regression based on 80% of the observations (N=971), as follows: Predicted Bod-pod Volume (L)=9.498+0.805*(BVI volume, L)-0.0411*(Age, years)-3.295*(Male=0, Female=1)+0.0554*(BVI volume, L)*(Male=0, Female=1)+0.0282*(Age, years)*(Male=0, Female=1). Predictions for Bod-pod volume based on the estimated model were then calculated for the remaining 20% (N=243) and compared to the volume measured by the Bod-pod. Mean age among the 971 individuals was 41.5 ± 12.9 years, 39.4% were men, weight 81.6 ± 20.9 kg, BMI was 27.8 ± 6.3kg/m 2 . Average difference between volume measured by Bod-pod- predicted volume by BVI was 0.0 L, median: -0.4 L, IQR: -1.8 L to 1.5 L, R2=0.9845. Average difference between body fat measured-predicted was-1%, median: -2.7%, IQR: -13.2 to 9.9, R2=0.9236. Volume and BFM can be estimated by using volume measurements obtained by a white- light 3D body scanner and the prediction model developed in this study.

Pediatric patient safety events during hospitalization: approaches to accounting for institution-level effects.

PubMed

Slonim, Anthony D; Marcin, James P; Turenne, Wendy; Hall, Matt; Joseph, Jill G

2007-12-01

To determine the rates, patient, and institutional characteristics associated with the occurrence of patient safety indicators (PSIs) in hospitalized children and the degree of statistical difference derived from using three approaches of controlling for institution level effects. Pediatric Health Information System Dataset consisting of all pediatric discharges (<21 years of age) from 34 academic, freestanding children's hospitals for calendar year 2003. The rates of PSIs were computed for all discharges. The patient and institutional characteristics associated with these PSIs were calculated. The analyses sequentially applied three increasingly conservative methods to control for the institution-level effects robust standard error estimation, a fixed effects model, and a random effects model. The degree of difference from a "base state," which excluded institution-level variables, and between the models was calculated. The effects of these analyses on the interpretation of the PSIs are presented. PSIs are relatively infrequent events in hospitalized children ranging from 0 per 10,000 (postoperative hip fracture) to 87 per 10,000 (postoperative respiratory failure). Significant variables associated PSIs included age (neonates), race (Caucasians), payor status (public insurance), severity of illness (extreme), and hospital size (>300 beds), which all had higher rates of PSIs than their reference groups in the bivariable logistic regression results. The three different approaches of adjusting for institution-level effects demonstrated that there were similarities in both the clinical and statistical significance across each of the models. Institution-level effects can be appropriately controlled for by using a variety of methods in the analyses of administrative data. Whenever possible, resource-conservative methods should be used in the analyses especially if clinical implications are minimal.

Screening Tool for Early Postnatal Prediction of Retinopathy of Prematurity in Preterm Newborns (STEP-ROP).

PubMed

Ricard, Caroline A; Dammann, Christiane E L; Dammann, Olaf

2017-01-01

Retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) is a disorder of the preterm newborn characterized by neurovascular disruption in the immature retina that may cause visual impairment and blindness. To develop a clinical screening tool for early postnatal prediction of ROP in preterm newborns based on risk information available within the first 48 h of postnatal life. Using data submitted to the Vermont Oxford Network (VON) between 1995 and 2015, we created logistic regression models based on infants born <28 completed weeks gestational age. We developed a model with 60% of the data and identified birth weight, gestational age, respiratory distress syndrome, non-Hispanic ethnicity, and multiple gestation as predictors of ROP. We tested the model in the remaining 40%, performed tenfold cross-validation, and tested the score in ELGAN study data. Of the 1,052 newborns in the VON database, 627 recorded an ROP status. Forty percent had no ROP, 40% had mild ROP (stages 1 and 2), and 20% had severe ROP (stages 3-5). We created a weighted score to predict any ROP based on the multivariable regression model. A cutoff score of 5 had the best sensitivity (95%, 95% CI 93-97), while maintaining a strong positive predictive value (63%, 95% CI 57-68). When applied to the ELGAN data, sensitivity was lower (72%, 95% CI 69-75), but PPV was higher (80%, 95% CI 77-83). STEP-ROP is a promising screening tool. It is easy to calculate, does not rely on extensive postnatal data collection, and can be calculated early after birth. Early ROP screening may help physicians limit patient exposure to additional risk factors, and may be useful for risk stratification in clinical trials aimed at reducing ROP. © 2017 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Magnetic anomaly study and geologic implications for Gilbert and Tokelau seamounts, Pacific Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sager, W. W.; Koppers, A. A.; Staudigel, H.

2006-12-01

The Gilbert and Tokelau seamounts are linear chains in the central Pacific with trends similar to the Emperor seamounts, implying the two poorly-known chains were formed by the same mechanism, widely regarded as hotspot volcanism. Multibeam bathymetry and magnetic data were collected over many Gilbert and Tokelau seamounts and have been used to make magnetic models to help understand the geologic evolution of the two chains. Magnetic models were done for 10 Gilbert and 10 Tokelau seamounts. Gilbert seamounts gave about equal number of reversed and normal polarity models and several have complex magnetizations that may indicate a mixture of opposing polarity rocks. Both observations imply formation during a time that included multiple geomagnetic reversals, consistent with radiometric dates from dredged rocks (65-72 Ma) [Koppers, A., and H. Staudigel, Science, 307, p. 905, 2005]. In the Tokelau chain, large volcanic edifices with summit islands (Howland, Baker, Fakaofu) also appear to have complex anomalies, making interpretation difficult. These volcanoes may also have formed over periods of time including magnetic reversals. The rest of the modeled central Tokelau seamounts have simpler magnetic anomalies and all but one is reversely polarized (6 reversed, 1 normal). Although this bias seems unusual if the geomagnetic field spent equal time in both polarities, it is consistent with radiometric ages of 59-66 Ma [Koppers and Staudigel, 2005], a period of dominantly reversed polarity. Paleomagnetic poles calculated from both seamount groups fall along the N-S trend of the Late Cretaceous to Cenozoic Pacific apparent polar wander path, consistent with Latest Cretaceous or early Cenozoic radiometric ages. More than half of the poles lie >30° east of the accepted polar wander path, perhaps indicating that the early Cenozoic polar wander path should be farther east. Ten (55%) of the paleomagnetic poles have lower latitudes than expected for Late Cretaceous or Cenozoic seamounts and all but one of these seamounts is reversely polarized. This situation implies a present-field overprint that steepens the calculated magnetization vectors for these seamounts and also renders the calculated seamount paleolatitudes unsuitable for interpretation.

Hydrological model uncertainty due to spatial evapotranspiration estimation methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Xuan; Lamačová, Anna; Duffy, Christopher; Krám, Pavel; Hruška, Jakub

2016-05-01

Evapotranspiration (ET) continues to be a difficult process to estimate in seasonal and long-term water balances in catchment models. Approaches to estimate ET typically use vegetation parameters (e.g., leaf area index [LAI], interception capacity) obtained from field observation, remote sensing data, national or global land cover products, and/or simulated by ecosystem models. In this study we attempt to quantify the uncertainty that spatial evapotranspiration estimation introduces into hydrological simulations when the age of the forest is not precisely known. The Penn State Integrated Hydrologic Model (PIHM) was implemented for the Lysina headwater catchment, located 50°03‧N, 12°40‧E in the western part of the Czech Republic. The spatial forest patterns were digitized from forest age maps made available by the Czech Forest Administration. Two ET methods were implemented in the catchment model: the Biome-BGC forest growth sub-model (1-way coupled to PIHM) and with the fixed-seasonal LAI method. From these two approaches simulation scenarios were developed. We combined the estimated spatial forest age maps and two ET estimation methods to drive PIHM. A set of spatial hydrologic regime and streamflow regime indices were calculated from the modeling results for each method. Intercomparison of the hydrological responses to the spatial vegetation patterns suggested considerable variation in soil moisture and recharge and a small uncertainty in the groundwater table elevation and streamflow. The hydrologic modeling with ET estimated by Biome-BGC generated less uncertainty due to the plant physiology-based method. The implication of this research is that overall hydrologic variability induced by uncertain management practices was reduced by implementing vegetation models in the catchment models.

Validation of Maturity Offset in the Fels Longitudinal Study.

PubMed

Malina, Robert M; Choh, Audrey C; Czerwinski, Stefan A; Chumlea, Wm Cameron

2016-08-01

Sex-specific equations for predicting maturity offset, time before or after peak height velocity (PHV), were evaluated in 63 girls and 74 boys from the Fels Longitudinal Study. Serially measured heights (0.1 cm), sitting heights (0.1 cm), weights (0.1 kg), and estimated leg lengths (0.1 cm) from 8 to 18 years were used. Predicted age at PHV (years) was calculated as the difference between chronological age (CA) and maturity offset. Actual age at PHV for each child was derived with a triple logistic model (Bock-Thissen-du Toit). Mean predicted maturity offset was negative and lowest at 8 years and increased linearly with increasing CA. Predicted ages at PHV increased linearly with CA from 8 to 18 years in girls and from 8 to 13 years in boys; predictions varied within relatively narrow limits from 12 to 15 years and then increased to 18 years in boys. Differences between predicted and actual ages at PHV among youth of contrasting maturity status were significant across the age range in both sexes. Dependence of predicted age at PHV upon CA at prediction and on actual age at PHV limits its utility as an indicator of maturity timing and in sport talent programs.

Stratification of complexity in congenital heart surgery: comparative study of the Risk Adjustment for Congenital Heart Surgery (RACHS-1) method, Aristotle basic score and Society of Thoracic Surgeons-European Association for Cardio- Thoracic Surgery (STS-EACTS) mortality score

PubMed Central

Cavalcanti, Paulo Ernando Ferraz; Sá, Michel Pompeu Barros de Oliveira; dos Santos, Cecília Andrade; Esmeraldo, Isaac Melo; Chaves, Mariana Leal; Lins, Ricardo Felipe de Albuquerque; Lima, Ricardo de Carvalho

2015-01-01

Objective To determine whether stratification of complexity models in congenital heart surgery (RACHS-1, Aristotle basic score and STS-EACTS mortality score) fit to our center and determine the best method of discriminating hospital mortality. Methods Surgical procedures in congenital heart diseases in patients under 18 years of age were allocated to the categories proposed by the stratification of complexity methods currently available. The outcome hospital mortality was calculated for each category from the three models. Statistical analysis was performed to verify whether the categories presented different mortalities. The discriminatory ability of the models was determined by calculating the area under the ROC curve and a comparison between the curves of the three models was performed. Results 360 patients were allocated according to the three methods. There was a statistically significant difference between the mortality categories: RACHS-1 (1) - 1.3%, (2) - 11.4%, (3)-27.3%, (4) - 50 %, (P<0.001); Aristotle basic score (1) - 1.1%, (2) - 12.2%, (3) - 34%, (4) - 64.7%, (P<0.001); and STS-EACTS mortality score (1) - 5.5 %, (2) - 13.6%, (3) - 18.7%, (4) - 35.8%, (P<0.001). The three models had similar accuracy by calculating the area under the ROC curve: RACHS-1- 0.738; STS-EACTS-0.739; Aristotle- 0.766. Conclusion The three models of stratification of complexity currently available in the literature are useful with different mortalities between the proposed categories with similar discriminatory capacity for hospital mortality. PMID:26107445

Towards lidar-based mapping of tree age at the Arctic forest tundra ecotone.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jensen, J.; Maguire, A.; Oelkers, R.; Andreu-Hayles, L.; Boelman, N.; D'Arrigo, R.; Griffin, K. L.; Jennewein, J. S.; Hiers, E.; Meddens, A. J.; Russell, M.; Vierling, L. A.; Eitel, J.

2017-12-01

Climate change may cause spatial shifts in the forest-tundra ecotone (FTE). To improve our ability to study these spatial shifts, information on tree demography along the FTE is needed. The objective of this study was to assess the suitability of lidar derived tree heights as a surrogate for tree age. We calculated individual tree age from 48 tree cores collected at basal height from white spruce (Picea glauca) within the FTE in northern Alaska. Tree height was obtained from terrestrial lidar scans (<1cm spatial resolution). The relationship between age and height was examined using a linear regression model forced through the origin. We found a very strong predictive relationship between tree height and age (R2 = 0.90, RMSE = 19.34 years) for trees that ranged between 14 to 230 years. Separate regression models were also developed for small (height < 3 m) and large trees (height >= 3 m), yielding strong predictive relationships between height and age (R2 = 0.86, RMSE 12.21 years, and R2 = 0.93, RMSE = 25.16 years, respectively). The slope coefficient for small and large tree models (16.83 and 12.98 years/m, respectively) indicate that small trees grow 1.3 times faster than large trees at these FTE study sites. Although a strong, predictive relationship between age and height is uncommon in light-limited forest environments, our findings suggest that the sparseness of trees within the FTE may explain the strong tree height-age relationships found herein. Further analysis of 36 additional tree cores recently collected within the FTE near Inuvik, Canada will be performed. Our preliminary analysis suggests that lidar derived tree height could be a reliable proxy for tree age at the FTE, thereby establishing a new technique for scaling tree structure and demographics across larger portions of this sensitive ecotone.

The contemporary degassing rate of 40Ar from the solid Earth

PubMed Central

Bender, Michael L.; Barnett, Bruce; Dreyfus, Gabrielle; Jouzel, Jean; Porcelli, Don

2008-01-01

Knowledge of the outgassing history of radiogenic 40Ar, derived over geologic time from the radioactive decay of 40K, contributes to our understanding of the geodynamic history of the planet and the origin of volatiles on Earth's surface. The 40Ar inventory of the atmosphere equals total 40Ar outgassing during Earth history. Here, we report the current rate of 40Ar outgassing, accessed by measuring the Ar isotope composition of trapped gases in samples of the Vostok and Dome C deep ice cores dating back to almost 800 ka. The modern outgassing rate (1.1 ± 0.1 × 108 mol/yr) is in the range of values expected by summing outgassing from the continental crust and the upper mantle, as estimated from simple calculations and models. The measured outgassing rate is also of interest because it allows dating of air trapped in ancient ice core samples of unknown age, although uncertainties are large (±180 kyr for a single sample or ±11% of the calculated age, whichever is greater). PMID:18550816

A computer-based matrix for rapid calculation of pulmonary hemodynamic parameters in congenital heart disease

PubMed Central

Lopes, Antonio Augusto; dos Anjos Miranda, Rogério; Gonçalves, Rilvani Cavalcante; Thomaz, Ana Maria

2009-01-01

BACKGROUND: In patients with congenital heart disease undergoing cardiac catheterization for hemodynamic purposes, parameter estimation by the indirect Fick method using a single predicted value of oxygen consumption has been a matter of criticism. OBJECTIVE: We developed a computer-based routine for rapid estimation of replicate hemodynamic parameters using multiple predicted values of oxygen consumption. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Using Microsoft® Excel facilities, we constructed a matrix containing 5 models (equations) for prediction of oxygen consumption, and all additional formulas needed to obtain replicate estimates of hemodynamic parameters. RESULTS: By entering data from 65 patients with ventricular septal defects, aged 1 month to 8 years, it was possible to obtain multiple predictions for oxygen consumption, with clear between-age groups (P <.001) and between-methods (P <.001) differences. Using these predictions in the individual patient, it was possible to obtain the upper and lower limits of a likely range for any given parameter, which made estimation more realistic. CONCLUSION: The organized matrix allows for rapid obtainment of replicate parameter estimates, without error due to exhaustive calculations. PMID:19641642

Joint effect of education and age at childbirth on the risk of caesarean delivery: findings from Germany 2008-2015.

PubMed

Castiglioni, L; Schmiedeberg, C

2018-02-01

This article aims at assessing the joint effect of maternal age and education on the risk of having a caesarean delivery. As high maternal education is often associated with lower caesarean-birth rates, but high-educated women tend to postpone motherhood, these effects may offset each other in traditional analyses. Secondary analysis of the data from the German Family Panel pairfam. The interview-based data refer to 1020 births between 2008 and 2015. We analyse only reports from mothers and calculate logistic regression models. The caesarean delivery rate differs strongly between education levels, and low-educated women are at higher risk of having a caesarean delivery when controlling for parity and age. A positive age gradient is found, indicating a higher risk of caesarean section for older mothers. Without controlling for age, the association of education and caesarean section risk is weaker, i.e., effects of age and education partially level each other out. A model including an interaction term between age and education confirms this result. The risk of having a caesarean delivery does not differ between levels of education when maternal age is not taken into account. Lower maternal education and higher age are both positively associated with the risk of experiencing a caesarean section in Germany. However, as higher educated women tend to have their children later, effects of education and age weigh each other out. Preventive campaigns should target women with lower education and raise women's awareness on the risks associated with late motherhood. Copyright © 2017 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Biological age as a health index for mortality and major age-related disease incidence in Koreans: National Health Insurance Service – Health screening 11-year follow-up study

PubMed Central

Kang, Young Gon; Suh, Eunkyung; Lee, Jae-woo; Kim, Dong Wook; Cho, Kyung Hee; Bae, Chul-Young

2018-01-01

Purpose A comprehensive health index is needed to measure an individual’s overall health and aging status and predict the risk of death and age-related disease incidence, and evaluate the effect of a health management program. The purpose of this study is to demonstrate the validity of estimated biological age (BA) in relation to all-cause mortality and age-related disease incidence based on National Sample Cohort database. Patients and methods This study was based on National Sample Cohort database of the National Health Insurance Service – Eligibility database and the National Health Insurance Service – Medical and Health Examination database of the year 2002 through 2013. BA model was developed based on the National Health Insurance Service – National Sample Cohort (NHIS – NSC) database and Cox proportional hazard analysis was done for mortality and major age-related disease incidence. Results For every 1 year increase of the calculated BA and chronological age difference, the hazard ratio for mortality significantly increased by 1.6% (1.5% in men and 2.0% in women) and also for hypertension, diabetes mellitus, heart disease, stroke, and cancer incidence by 2.5%, 4.2%, 1.3%, 1.6%, and 0.4%, respectively (p<0.001). Conclusion Estimated BA by the developed BA model based on NHIS – NSC database is expected to be used not only as an index for assessing health and aging status and predicting mortality and major age-related disease incidence, but can also be applied to various health care fields. PMID:29593385

[The importance of memory bias in obtaining age of menarche by recall method in Brazilian adolescents].

PubMed

Castilho, Silvia Diez; Nucci, Luciana Bertoldi; Assuino, Samanta Ramos; Hansen, Lucca Ortolan

2014-06-01

To compare the age at menarche obtained by recall method according to the time elapsed since the event, in order to verify the importance of the recall bias. Were evaluated 1,671 girls (7-18 years) at schools in Campinas-SP regarding the occurrence of menarche by the status quo method (menarche: yes or no) and the recall method (date of menarche, for those who mentioned it). The age at menarche obtained by the status quo method was calculated by logit, which considers the whole group, and the age obtained by the recall method was calculated as the average of the mentioned age at menarche. In this group, the age at menarche was obtained by the difference between the date of the event and the date of birth. Girls who reported menarche (883, 52.8%) were divided into four groups according to the time elapsed since the event. To analyze the results, we used ANOVA and logistic regression for the analysis, with a significance level of 0.05. The age at menarche calculated by logit was 12.14 y/o (95% CI 12.08 to 12.20). Mean ages obtained by recall were: for those who experienced menarche within the previous year 12.26 y/o (±1.14), between > 1-2 years before, 12.29 y (±1.22); between > 2-3 years before, 12.23 y/o (±1.27); and more than 3 years before, 11.55y/o (±1.24), p < 0.001. The age at menarche obtained by the recall method was similar for girls who menstruated within the previous 3 years (and approaches the age calculated by logit); when more than 3 years have passed, the recall bias was significant.

Fertility and apparent genetic anticipation in Lynch syndrome.

PubMed

Stupart, Douglas; Win, Aung Ko; Jenkins, Mark; Winship, Ingrid M; Goldberg, Paul; Ramesar, Rajkumar

2014-09-01

Genetic anticipation is the phenomenon in which age of onset of an inherited disorder decreases in successive generations. Inconsistent evidence suggests that this occurs in Lynch syndrome. A possible cause for apparent anticipation is fecundity bias, which occurs if the disease adversely affects fertility. The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of age of diagnosis of colorectal cancer (CRC) on lifetime fertility in Lynch syndrome, and whether this can falsely create the appearance of genetic anticipation. A computer model simulated age of diagnosis of CRC in hypothetical Lynch syndrome carriers and their offspring. The model assumed similar age distribution of CRC across generations (i.e. that there was no true anticipation). Age distribution of CRC diagnosis, and lifetime fertility rates (grouped by age of diagnosis of CRC) were determined from the Australasian Colorectal Cancer Family Registry (ACCFR). Apparent anticipation was calculated by comparing ages of diagnosis of CRC in affected parent-child pairs. A total of 1,088 patients with CRC were identified from the ACCFR. Total lifetime (cohort) fertility was related to age of diagnosis of CRC (correlation coefficient 0.13, P = 0.0001). In the simulation, apparent anticipation was 1.8 ± 0.54 years (P = 0.0044). Observed apparent anticipation in the ACCFR cohort was 4.8 ± 1.73 years (P = 0.0064). There was no difference in apparent anticipation between the simulate d and observed parent-child pairs (P = 0.89). The appearance of genetic anticipation in Lynch syndrome can be falsely created due to changes in fertility.

[Total flavones derived from Lagotis brevituba maxim reduce the levels of inflammatory cytokines in cerebral cortex and hippocampus of Alzheimer's disease mice].

PubMed

Yang, Bailing; Hou, Qian; Hu, Feng; Zhang, Fan

2016-07-01

Objective To investigate the mechanism behind the treatment of Alzheimer's disease (AD) with total flavones derived from Lagotis brevituba maxim (TF-LBM). Methods Fifty SAMP8 mice (aged 8 months) were randomly divided into 5 groups, (150, 300, 600) mg/kg TF-LBM groups, 0.65 g/kg donepezil HCl group and AD model group; 10 SAMR1 mice (aged 8 months) were used as a control group of normal aging. The AD model group and the normal aging control group were given the same volume of distilled water as TF-LBM groups. Eight weeks after intragastric administration, Morris water maze experiment was conducted to calculate the latency of place navigation. After the behavioral experiment, the brain cortical tissue and hippocampus (CA1 region) of the mice from various groups were taken to observe the morphological changes of the cortical tissue and hippocampus and test IL-1β, IL-6, TNF-α content. Results Compared with the model group, the escape latency of the normal aging group, the high-dose TF-LBM group and the donepezil HCl group were evidently shortened; compared with the normal aging group, IL-1β, IL-6, TNF-αof the model group increased significantly; compared with the model group, IL-1β content of the low-dose TF-LBM group had no obvious difference, while IL-1β content of the median-dose and high-dose TF-LBM groups and the donepezil HCl group decreased significantly; IL-6 content decreased in all TF-LBM groups and the donepezil HCl group; TNF-α level in the low-dose and median-dose TF-LBM groups had no evident difference, while it was reduced significantly in the high-dose TF-LBM group and the donepezil HCl group. Compared with the normal aging group, IL-1β, IL-6 and TNF-α content of the model group increased significantly; compared with the model group, IL-1β, IL-6 and TNF-α content of all TF-LBM groups and the donepezil HCl group decreased. Conclusion TF-LBM can improve the behavior change of SAMP8 mice with AD. TF-LBM can reduce the content of IL-6, IL-1β and TNF-α in cerebral cortex and hippocampus CA1.

Medial knee joint contact force in the intact limb during walking in recently ambulatory service members with unilateral limb loss: a cross-sectional study

PubMed Central

Krupenevich, Rebecca L.; Pruziner, Alison L.; Wolf, Erik J.; Schnall, Barri L.

2017-01-01

Background Individuals with unilateral lower limb amputation have a high risk of developing knee osteoarthritis (OA) in their intact limb as they age. This risk may be related to joint loading experienced earlier in life. We hypothesized that loading during walking would be greater in the intact limb of young US military service members with limb loss than in controls with no limb loss. Methods Cross-sectional instrumented gait analysis at self-selected walking speeds with a limb loss group (N = 10, age 27 ± 5 years, 170 ± 36 days since last surgery) including five service members with transtibial limb loss and five with transfemoral limb loss, all walking independently with their first prosthesis for approximately two months. Controls (N = 10, age 30 ± 4 years) were service members with no overt demographical risk factors for knee OA. 3D inverse dynamics modeling was performed to calculate joint moments and medial knee joint contact forces (JCF) were calculated using a reduction-based musculoskeletal modeling method and expressed relative to body weight (BW). Results Peak JCF and maximum JCF loading rate were significantly greater in limb loss (184% BW, 2,469% BW/s) vs. controls (157% BW, 1,985% BW/s), with large effect sizes. Results were robust to probabilistic perturbations to the knee model parameters. Discussion Assuming these data are reflective of joint loading experienced in daily life, they support a “mechanical overloading” hypothesis for the risk of developing knee OA in the intact limb of limb loss subjects. Examination of the evolution of gait mechanics, joint loading, and joint health over time, as well as interventions to reduce load or strengthen the ability of the joint to withstand loads, is warranted. PMID:28168120

An isochrone data base and a rapid model for stellar population synthesis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Zhongmu; Han, Zhanwen

2008-06-01

We first presented an isochrone data base that can be widely used for stellar population synthesis studies and colour-magnitude diagram (CMD) fitting. The data base consists of the isochrones of both single-star and binary-star simple stellar populations (ss-SSPs and bs-SSPs). The ranges for the age and metallicity of populations are 0-15 Gyr and 0.0001-0.03, respectively. All data are available for populations with two widely used initial mass functions (IMFs), that is, Salpeter IMF and Chabrier IMF. The uncertainty caused by the data base (about 0.81 per cent) is designed to be smaller than those caused by the Hurley code and widely used stellar spectra libraries (e.g. BaSeL 3.1) when it is used for stellar population synthesis. Based on the isochrone data base, we then built a rapid stellar population synthesis (RPS) model and calculated the high-resolution (0.3-Å) integrated spectral energy distributions, Lick indices and colour indices for bs-SSPs and ss-SSPs. In particular, we calculated the UBVRIJHKLM colours, ugriz colours and some composite colours that consist of magnitudes on different systems. These colours are useful for disentangling the well-known stellar age-metallicity degeneracy according to our previous work. As an example for applying the isochrone data base for CMD fitting, we fitted the CMDs of two star clusters (M67 and NGC1868) and obtained their distance moduli, colour excesses, stellar metallicities and ages. The results showed that the isochrones of bs-SSPs are closer to those of real star clusters. It suggests that we should take the effects of binary interactions into account in stellar population synthesis. We also discussed on the limitations of the application of the isochrone data base and the results of the RPS model. All the data are available at the CDS or on request to the authors. E-mail: zhongmu.li@gmail.com

Assessing the interruption of the transmission of human helminths with mass drug administration alone: optimizing the design of cluster randomized trials.

PubMed

Anderson, Roy; Farrell, Sam; Turner, Hugo; Walson, Judd; Donnelly, Christl A; Truscott, James

2017-02-17

A method is outlined for the use of an individual-based stochastic model of parasite transmission dynamics to assess different designs for a cluster randomized trial in which mass drug administration (MDA) is employed in attempts to eliminate the transmission of soil-transmitted helminths (STH) in defined geographic locations. The hypothesis to be tested is: Can MDA alone interrupt the transmission of STH species in defined settings? Clustering is at a village level and the choice of clusters of villages is stratified by transmission intensity (low, medium and high) and parasite species mix (either Ascaris, Trichuris or hookworm dominant). The methodological approach first uses an age-structured deterministic model to predict the MDA coverage required for treating pre-school aged children (Pre-SAC), school aged children (SAC) and adults (Adults) to eliminate transmission (crossing the breakpoint in transmission created by sexual mating in dioecious helminths) with 3 rounds of annual MDA. Stochastic individual-based models are then used to calculate the positive and negative predictive values (PPV and NPV, respectively, for observing elimination or the bounce back of infection) for a defined prevalence of infection 2 years post the cessation of MDA. For the arm only involving the treatment of Pre-SAC and SAC, the failure rate is predicted to be very high (particularly for hookworm-infected villages) unless transmission intensity is very low (R 0 , or the effective reproductive number R, just above unity in value). The calculations are designed to consider various trial arms and stratifications; namely, community-based treatment and Pre-SAC and SAC only treatment (the two arms of the trial), different STH transmission settings of low, medium and high, and different STH species mixes. Results are considered in the light of the complications introduced by the choice of statistic to define success or failure, varying adherence to treatment, migration and parameter uncertainty.

Truancy and teenage pregnancy in English adolescent girls: can we identify those at risk?

PubMed

Zhou, Yin; Puradiredja, Dewi Ismajani; Abel, Gary

2016-06-01

Truancy has been linked to risky sexual behaviours in teenagers. However, no studies in England have examined the association between truancy and teenage pregnancy, and the use of truancy as a marker of teenagers at risk of pregnancy. Using logistic regression, we investigated the association between truancy at age 15 and the likelihood of teenage pregnancy by age 19 among 3837 female teenagers who participated in the Longitudinal Study of Young People of England. We calculated the areas under the ROC curves of four models to determine how useful truancy would be as a marker of future teenage pregnancy. Truancy showed a dose-response association with teenage pregnancy after adjusting for ethnicity, educational intentions at age 16, parental socioeconomic status and family composition ('several days at a time' versus 'none', odds ratio 3.48 95% confidence interval 1.90-6.36, P < 0.001). Inclusion of risk behaviours improved the accuracy of predictive models only marginally (area under the ROC curve 0.76 full model versus 0.71 sociodemographic characteristics only). Truancy is independently associated with teenage pregnancy among English adolescent girls. However, the discriminatory powers of models were low, suggesting that interventions addressing the whole population, rather than targeting high-risk individuals, might be more effective in reducing teenage pregnancy rates. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Faculty of Public Health.

Does endogenous GLP-1 affect resting energy expenditure and fuel selection in overweight and obese adults?

PubMed

Poggiogalle, E; Donini, L M; Chiesa, C; Pacifico, L; Lenzi, A; Perna, S; Faliva, M; Naso, M; Rondanelli, M

2018-04-01

To investigate the association between fasting glucagon-like peptide 1 (GLP-1) levels and resting energy expenditure (REE), and respiratory quotient (RQ) in overweight and obese adults. Study participants were enrolled at the Dietetic and Metabolic Unit, University of Pavia, Italy. Inclusion criteria were age ≥ 25 and ≤ 45 years, and body mass index (BMI) ≥ 25 and ≤ 35 kg/m 2 . Diabetic subjects were excluded. Body composition was measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry. REE was evaluated using indirect calorimetry, and RQ was calculated from respiratory gas exchanges. Fasting GLP-1, glucose, insulin and free fatty acid (FFA) levels, and 24-h norepinephrine urinary excretion were measured. Homeostasis model assessments of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) and beta-cell function (HOMA-β) were calculated. Thirty-seven participants were included (age 43.4 ± 1.6 years; BMI 30.6 ± 0.5 kg/m 2 ). REE was not associated with fasting GLP-1 levels (p = 0.98) after adjustment for age, sex, fat-free mass (FFM), and fat mass (FM). Similarly, no association was observed between RQ and GLP-1 levels (p = 0.95), after adjustment for age, sex, and body fat. In adults subjects with increased adiposity fasting, GLP-1 levels do not seem to play a role in the regulation of energy metabolism and in fuel selection.

Lifetime and 5 years risk of breast cancer and attributable risk factor according to Gail model in Iranian women

PubMed Central

Mohammadbeigi, Abolfazl; Mohammadsalehi, Narges; Valizadeh, Razieh; Momtaheni, Zeinab; Mokhtari, Mohsen; Ansari, Hossein

2015-01-01

Introduction: Breast cancer is the most commonly diagnosed cancers in women worldwide and in Iran. It is expected to account for 29% of all new cancers in women at 2015. This study aimed to assess the 5 years and lifetime risk of breast cancer according to Gail model, and to evaluate the effect of other additional risk factors on the Gail risk. Materials and Methods: A cross sectional study conducted on 296 women aged more than 34-year-old in Qom, Center of Iran. Breast Cancer Risk Assessment Tool calculated the Gail risk for each subject. Data were analyzed by paired t-test, independent t-test, and analysis of variance in bivariate approach to evaluate the effect of each factor on Gail risk. Multiple linear regression models with stepwise method were used to predict the effect of each variable on the Gail risk. Results: The mean age of the participants was 47.8 ± 8.8-year-old and 47% have Fars ethnicity. The 5 years and lifetime risk was 0.37 ± 0.18 and 4.48 ± 0.925%, respectively. It was lower than the average risk in same race and age women (P < 0.001). Being single, positive family history of breast cancer, positive history of biopsy, and radiotherapy as well as using nonhormonal contraceptives were related to higher lifetime risk (P < 0.05). Moreover, a significant direct correlation observed between lifetime risk and body mass index, age of first live birth, and menarche age. While an inversely correlation observed between lifetimes risk of breast cancer and total month of breast feeding duration and age. Conclusion: Based on our results, the 5 years and lifetime risk of breast cancer according to Gail model was lower than the same race and age. Moreover, by comparison with national epidemiologic indicators about morbidity and mortality of breast cancer, it seems that the Gail model overestimate the risk of breast cancer in Iranian women. PMID:26229355

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xie, Tianwu; Lee, Choonsik; Bolch, Wesley E.

Purpose: Nuclear cardiology plays an important role in clinical assessment and has enormous impact on the management of a variety of cardiovascular diseases. Pediatric patients at different age groups are exposed to a spectrum of radiation dose levels and associated cancer risks different from those of adults in diagnostic nuclear medicine procedures. Therefore, comprehensive radiation dosimetry evaluations for commonly used myocardial perfusion imaging (MPI) and viability radiotracers in target population (children and adults) at different age groups are highly desired. Methods: Using Monte Carlo calculations and biological effects of ionizing radiation VII model, we calculate the S-values for a numbermore » of radionuclides (Tl-201, Tc-99m, I-123, C-11, N-13, O-15, F-18, and Rb-82) and estimate the absorbed dose and effective dose for 12 MPI radiotracers in computational models including the newborn, 1-, 5-, 10-, 15-yr-old, and adult male and female computational phantoms. Results: For most organs, {sup 201}Tl produces the highest absorbed dose whereas {sup 82}Rb and {sup 15}O-water produce the lowest absorbed dose. For the newborn baby and adult patient, the effective dose of {sup 82}Rb is 48% and 77% lower than that of {sup 99m}Tc-tetrofosmin (rest), respectively. Conclusions: {sup 82}Rb results in lower effective dose in adults compared to {sup 99m}Tc-labeled tracers. However, this advantage is less apparent in children. The produced dosimetric databases for various radiotracers used in cardiovascular imaging, using new generation of computational models, can be used for risk-benefit assessment of a spectrum of patient population in clinical nuclear cardiology practice.« less

Reconstructing populations dynamics: Mortality and recruitment of the southern geoduck Panopea abbreviata

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaidman, Paula C.; Morsan, Enrique

2018-05-01

In the development of management measures for sustainable fisheries, estimating the natural mortality rate and recruitment are fundamental. In northern Patagonia, Argentina, the southern geoduck, Panopea abbreviata, a long-lived clam that forms spatially disjunct subpopulations, supports an unregulated fishery. In this study, we estimate natural mortality. We studied the age structure of beds within the northern Patagonia gulfs, San Matías Gulf (SMG) and San Jose Gulf (SJG), and we estimated a time series for back-reconstructed recruitment to explore spatial coherence in relation to local oceanographic conditions and to elucidate its population dynamics. We constructed a cumulative frequency distribution of the age of dead shells collected and used the exponential and Weibull models to model mortality. Live geoducks were sampled from six populations between 2000 and 2006. Age-frequency distributions and mortality models were used to back-calculate the time series of recruitment for each population. The recruitment time series was analysed using continuous wavelet transform. The value of natural mortality estimated by the exponential model was 0.054 years-1, whereas those estimated by the Weibull model were α = 0.00085 years-1 and β = 2.1. For the latter, M values for cohorts were 0.01 for 10 years, 0.02 for 20 years, 0.04 for 30 years and 0.05 for 40 years. The Weibull model was observed to be the best fit to the data. The natural mortality rate of P. abbreviata estimated in this study was lower than that estimated in a previous work for populations from SMG. The back-calculated time series for recruitment demonstrated considerable yearly variation, suggesting that local conditions have an important role in recruitment regulation. At a decadal temporal scale, a clear increasing recruitment trend was evident over the last 20 years in all populations. Populations in SMG were settled >60 years ago. In contrast, no individuals older than 30 years were observed in the populations from SJG. P. abbreviata has several characteristics, such as longevity and low instantaneous natural mortality rate, which require attention in any resource planning. However, this species also has positive characteristics for fishery development, as historical recruitment trends indicate that populations are expanding and are part of a widely distributed metapopulation, suggesting that sustainable exploitation is possible.

Measurement of pediatric regional cerebral blood flow from 6 months to 15 years of age in a clinical population.

PubMed

Carsin-Vu, Aline; Corouge, Isabelle; Commowick, Olivier; Bouzillé, Guillaume; Barillot, Christian; Ferré, Jean-Christophe; Proisy, Maia

2018-04-01

To investigate changes in cerebral blood flow (CBF) in gray matter (GM) between 6 months and 15 years of age and to provide CBF values for the brain, GM, white matter (WM), hemispheres and lobes. Between 2013 and 2016, we retrospectively included all clinical MRI examinations with arterial spin labeling (ASL). We excluded subjects with a condition potentially affecting brain perfusion. For each subject, mean values of CBF in the brain, GM, WM, hemispheres and lobes were calculated. GM CBF was fitted using linear, quadratic and cubic polynomial regression against age. Regression models were compared with Akaike's information criterion (AIC), and Likelihood Ratio tests. 84 children were included (44 females/40 males). Mean CBF values were 64.2 ± 13.8 mL/100 g/min in GM, and 29.3 ± 10.0 mL/100 g/min in WM. The best-fit model of brain perfusion was the cubic polynomial function (AIC = 672.7, versus respectively AIC = 673.9 and AIC = 674.1 with the linear negative function and the quadratic polynomial function). A statistically significant difference between the tested models demonstrating the superiority of the quadratic (p = 0.18) or cubic polynomial model (p = 0.06), over the negative linear regression model was not found. No effect of general anesthesia (p = 0.34) or of gender (p = 0.16) was found. we provided values for ASL CBF in the brain, GM, WM, hemispheres, and lobes over a wide pediatric age range, approximately showing inverted U-shaped changes in GM perfusion over the course of childhood. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Radiotherapy for stage I seminoma of the testis: Organ equivalent dose to partially in-field structures and second cancer risk estimates on the basis of a mechanistic, bell-shaped, and plateau model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mazonakis, Michalis, E-mail: mazonak@med.uoc.gr; Damilakis, John; Varveris, Charalambos

Purpose: The aim of the current study was to (a) calculate the organ equivalent dose (OED) and (b) estimate the associated second cancer risk to partially in-field critical structures from adjuvant radiotherapy for stage I seminoma of the testis on the basis of three different nonlinear risk models. Methods: Three-dimensional plans were created for twelve patients who underwent a treatment planning computed tomography of the abdomen. The plans for irradiation of seminoma consisted of para-aortic anteroposterior and posteroanterior fields giving 20 Gy to the target site with 6 MV photons. The OED of stomach, colon, liver, pancreas, and kidneys, thatmore » were partially included in the treatment volume, was calculated using differential dose–volume histograms. The mechanistic, bell-shaped, and plateau models were employed for these calculations provided that organ-specific parameters were available for the subsequent assessment of the excess absolute risk (EAR) for second cancer development. The estimated organ-specific lifetime risks were compared with the respective nominal intrinsic probabilities for cancer induction. Results: The mean OED, which was calculated from the patients’ treatment plans, varied from 0.54 to 6.61 Gy by the partially in-field organ of interest and the model used for dosimetric calculations. The difference between the OED of liver derived from the mechanistic model with those from the bell-shaped and plateau models was less than 1.8%. An even smaller deviation of 1.0% was observed for colon. For the rest organs of interest, the differences between the OED values obtained by the examined models varied from 8.6% to 50.0%. The EAR for stomach, colon, liver, pancreas, and kidney cancer induction at an age of 70 yr because of treatment of a typical 39-yr-old individual was up to 4.24, 11.39, 0.91, 3.04, and 0.14 per 10 000 persons-yr, respectively. Patient’s irradiation was found to elevate the lifetime intrinsic risks by 8.3%–63.0% depending upon the organ of interest and the model employed for risk analysis. Conclusions: Radiotherapy for stage I seminoma of the testis may result in an excess risk for the appearance of secondary malignancies in partially in-field organs. The organ- and model-dependent second cancer risk assessments of this study may be of value for patient counseling and follow-up.« less

Effect of rearing factors on the prevalence of floor eggs, cloacal cannibalism and feather pecking in commercial flocks of loose housed laying hens.

PubMed

Gunnarsson, S; Keeling, L J; Svedberg, J

1999-03-01

1. Effects of rearing conditions on behavioural problems were investigated in a cohort study of commercial flocks of laying hens housed in 2 different loose housing systems. The sample population was 120 385 laying hens from 59 flocks of various hybrids at 21 different farms. 2. Logistic regression modelling was used to test the effects of selected factors on floor eggs, cloacal cannibalism and feather pecking. In addition to early access to perches or litter, models included hybrid, stocking density, group size, housing system, age at delivery, identical housing system at the rearing farm and at the production farm and, in models for floor eggs and cloacal cannibalism, nest area per hen. Odds ratios were calculated from the results of the models to allow risk assessment. 3. No significant correlations were found between the prevalence of floor eggs, cloacal cannibalism and feather pecking. 4. Access to perches from not later than the 4th week of age decreased the prevalence of floor eggs during the period from start-of-lay until 35 weeks of age, odds ratio 0-30 (P<0-001). Furthermore, early access to perches decreased the prevalence of cloacal cannibalism during the production period, odds ratio 0-46 (P=0.03). 5. No other factor had a significant effect in these models. Although it was not significant, early access to litter had a non-significant tendency to reduce the prevalence of feather pecking.

Cellular aging (the Hayflick limit) and species longevity: a unification model based on clonal succession.

PubMed

Juckett, D A

1987-03-01

A model is presented which proposes a specific cause-and-effect relationship between a limited cell division potential and the maximum lifespan of humans and other mammals. It is based on the clonal succession hypothesis of Kay which states that continually replicating cell beds (e.g. bone marrow, intestinal crypts, epidermis) could be composed of cells with short, well-defined division potentials. In this model, the cells of these beds are proposed to exist in an ordered hierarchy which establishes a specific sequence for cell divisions throughout the organism's lifespan. The depletion of division potential at all hierarchical levels leads to a loss of bed function and sets an intrinsic limit to species longevity. A specific hierarchy for cell proliferation is defined which allows the calculation of time to bed depletion and, ultimately, to organism mortality. The model allows the existence of a small number (n) of critical cell beds within the organism and defines organism death as the inability of any one of these beds to produce cells. The model is consistent with all major observations related to cellular and organismic aging. In particular, it links the PDLs (population doubling limit) observed for various species to their mean lifespan; it explains the slow decline in PDL as a function of age of the donor; it establishes a thermodynamically stable maximum lifespan for a disease-free population; and it can explain why tissue transplants outlive donors or hosts.

Air pollution and ED visits for asthma in Australian children: a case-crossover analysis.

PubMed

Jalaludin, Bin; Khalaj, Behnoosh; Sheppeard, Vicky; Morgan, Geoff

2008-08-01

We aimed to determine the effects of ambient air pollutants on emergency department (ED) visits for asthma in children. We obtained routinely collected ED visit data for asthma (ICD9 493) and air pollution (PM(10), PM(2.5), O(3), NO(2), CO and SO(2)) and meteorological data for metropolitan Sydney for 1997-2001. We used the time stratified case-crossover design and conditional logistic regression to model the association between air pollutants and ED visits for four age-groups (1-4, 5-9, 10-14 and 1-14 years). Estimated relative risks for asthma ED visits were calculated for an exposure corresponding to the inter-quartile range in pollutant level. We included same day average temperature, same day relative humidity, daily temperature range, school holidays and public holidays in all models. Associations between ambient air pollutants and ED visits for asthma in children were most consistent for all six air pollutants in the 1-4 years age-group, for particulates and CO in the 5-9 years age-group and for CO in the 10-14 years age-group. The greatest effects were most consistently observed for lag 0 and effects were greater in the warm months for particulates, O(3) and NO(2). In two pollutant models, effect sizes were generally smaller compared to those derived from single pollutant models. We observed the effects of ambient air pollutants on ED attendances for asthma in a city where the ambient concentrations of air pollutants are relatively low.

Association of physical activity and heart failure with preserved vs. reduced ejection fraction in the elderly: the Framingham Heart Study.

PubMed

Kraigher-Krainer, Elisabeth; Lyass, Asya; Massaro, Joseph M; Lee, Douglas S; Ho, Jennifer E; Levy, Daniel; Kannel, William B; Vasan, Ramachandran S

2013-07-01

Reduced physical activity is associated with increased risk of heart failure (HF) in middle-aged individuals. We hypothesized that physical inactivity is also associated with greater HF risk in older individuals, and examined if the association was consistent for HF with preserved ejection fraction (HFPEF) vs. HF with a reduced ejection fraction (HFREF). We evaluated 1142 elderly participants (mean age 76 years) from the Framingham Study without prior myocardial infarction and who attended a routine examination when daily physical activity was assessed systematically with a questionnaire. A composite score, the physical activity index (PAI), was calculated and modelled as tertiles, and related to incidence of HF, HFPEF, and HFREF on follow-up using proportional hazards regression models adjusting for age and sex, and then additionally for standard HF risk factors. Participants with HF and EF <45% vs. ≥45% were categorized as HFREF and HFPEF, respectively. On follow-up (mean 10 years), 250 participants developed HF (108 with HFPEF, 106 with HFREF, 36 with unavailable EF). In age- and sex-adjusted models, the middle and highest PAI tertiles were associated with a 15-56% lower risk of any HF, of HFREF, and of HFPEF, with a graded response across tertiles. In multivariable models, the association of higher PAI with lower risk of any HF and with HFPEF was maintained, whereas the association with HFREF was attenuated. Our study of an older community-based sample extends to the elderly and to HFPEF previous findings of a protective effect of physical activity on HF risk.

Evidence for terrigenic SF6 in groundwater from basaltic aquifers, Jeju Island, Korea: Implications for groundwater dating

USGS Publications Warehouse

Koh, Dong-Chan; Plummer, Niel; Busenberg, Eurybiades; Kim, Yongje

2007-01-01

Measurements of the concentrations of dichlorodifluoromethane (CFC-12), tritium (3H), and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) in groundwater from basaltic aquifers in Jeju Island, Korea, demonstrate a terrigenic source of SF6. Using a lumped-parameter dispersion model, groundwater was identified as young water (<15 years), old water with negligible CFC-12 and 3H, and binary mixtures of the two. Model calculations using dispersion models and binary mixing based on 3H and CFC-12 concentrations demonstrate a non-atmospheric excess of SF6 relative to CFC-12 and 3H concentrations for more than half of the samples. The non-atmospheric excess SF6 may have originated from terrigenic sources in relict volcanic fluids, which could have acquired SF6 from granites and basement rocks of the island during volcanic activity. Local excess anthropogenic sources of SF6 are unlikely. The SF6 age is biased young relative to the CFC-12 age, typically up to 20 years and as high as 30 years. This age bias is more pronounced in samples of groundwater older than 15 years. The presence of terrigenic SF6 can affect the entire dating range for groundwater in mixtures that contain a fraction of old water.

Prenatal Adversities and Latino Children’s Autonomic Nervous System Reactivity Trajectories from 6 Months to 5 Years of Age

PubMed Central

Alkon, Abbey; Boyce, W. Thomas; Tran, Linh; Harley, Kim G.; Neuhaus, John; Eskenazi, Brenda

2014-01-01

The purpose of the study was to determine whether mothers’ adversities experienced during early pregnancy are associated with offspring’s autonomic nervous system (ANS) reactivity trajectories from 6 months to 5 years of age. This cohort study of primarily Latino families included maternal interviews at 13–14 weeks gestation about their experience of a range of adversities: father’s absence, general social support, poverty level, and household density. ANS measures of heart rate, respiratory sinus arrhythmia (parasympathetic nervous system) and preejection period (sympathetic nervous system) were collected during resting and challenging conditions on children at 6 months and 1, 3.5 and 5 years of age. Reactivity measures were calculated as the mean of the responses to challenging conditions minus a resting condition. Fixed effects models were conducted for the 212 children with two or more timepoints of ANS measures. Interactions between maternal prenatal adversity levels and child age at time of ANS protocol were included in the models, allowing the calculation of separate trajectories or slopes for each level of adversity. Results showed no significant relations between mothers’ prenatal socioeconomic or social support adversity and offspring’s parasympathetic nervous system trajectories, but there was a statistically significant relationship between social support adversity and offspring’s heart rate trajectories (p<.05) and a borderline significant relationship between socioeconomic adversity and offspring’s sympathetic nervous system trajectories (p = .05). Children whose mothers experienced one, not two, social support adversity had the smallest increases in heart rate reactivity compared to children whose mothers experienced no adversity. The children whose mothers experienced no social support and no socioeconomic adversity had the largest increases in heart rate and preejection period respectively from 6 months to 5 years showing the most plasticity. Mothers’ prenatal adverse experiences may program their children’s physiologic trajectory to dampen their heart rate or sympathetic responsivity to challenging conditions. PMID:24466003

Impact and cost-effectiveness of a second tetanus toxoid, reduced diphtheria toxoid, and acellular pertussis (Tdap) vaccine dose to prevent pertussis in the United States.

PubMed

Kamiya, Hajime; Cho, Bo-Hyun; Messonnier, Mark L; Clark, Thomas A; Liang, Jennifer L

2016-04-04

The United States experienced a substantial increase in reported pertussis cases over the last decade. Since 2005, persons 11 years and older have been routinely recommended to receive a single dose of tetanus toxoid, reduced diphtheria toxoid and acellular pertussis (Tdap) vaccine. The objective of this analysis was to evaluate the potential impact and cost-effectiveness of recommending a second dose of Tdap. A static cohort model was used to calculate the epidemiologic and economic impact of adding a second dose of Tdap at age 16 or 21 years. Projected costs and outcomes were examined from a societal perspective over a 20-year period. Quality-adjusted Life Years (QALY) saved were calculated. Using baseline pertussis incidence from the National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System, Tdap revaccination at either age 16 or 21 years would reduce outpatient visits by 433 (5%) and 285 (4%), and hospitalization cases by 7 (7%) and 5 (5%), respectively. The costs per QALY saved with a second dose of Tdap were approximately US $19.7 million (16 years) and $26.2 million (21 years). In sensitivity analyses, incidence most influenced the model; as incidence increased, the costs per QALY decreased. To a lesser degree, initial vaccine effectiveness and waning of effectiveness also affected cost outcomes. Multivariate sensitivity analyses showed that under a set of optimistic assumptions, the cost per QALY saved would be approximately $163,361 (16 years) and $204,556 (21 years). A second dose of Tdap resulted in a slight decrease in the number of cases and other outcomes, and that trend is more apparent when revaccinating at age 16 years than at age 21 years. Both revaccination strategies had high dollar per QALY saved even under optimistic assumptions in a multivariate sensitivity analysis. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Swimming Training Assessment: The Critical Velocity and the 400-m Test for Age-Group Swimmers.

PubMed

Zacca, Rodrigo; Fernandes, Ricardo Jorge P; Pyne, David B; Castro, Flávio Antônio de S

2016-05-01

To verify the metabolic responses of oxygen consumption (V[Combining Dot Above]O2), heart rate (HR), blood lactate concentrations [La], and rate of perceived exertion (RPE) when swimming at an intensity corresponding to the critical velocity (CV) assessed by a 4-parameter model (CV4par), and to check the reliability when using only a single 400-m maximal front crawl bout (T400) for CV4par assessment in age-group swimmers. Ten age-group swimmers (14-16 years old) performed 50-, 100-, 200-, 400- (T400), 800-, and 1,500-m maximal front crawl bouts to calculate CV4par. V[Combining Dot Above]O2, HR, [La], and RPE were measured immediately after bouts. Swimmers then performed 3 × 10-minute front crawl (45 seconds rest) at CV4par. V[Combining Dot Above]O2, HR, [La], and RPE were measured after 10 minutes of rest (Rest), warm-up (Pre), each 10-minute repetition, and at the end of the test (Post). CV4par was 1.33 ± 0.08 m·s. V[Combining Dot Above]O2, HR, [La], and RPE were similar between first 10-minute and Post time points in the 3 × 10-minute protocol. CV4par was equivalent to 92 ± 2% of the mean swimming speed of T400 (v400) for these swimmers. CV4par calculated through a single T400 (92%v400) showed excellent agreement (r = 0.30; 95% CI: -0.04 to 0.05 m·s, p = 0.39), low coefficient of variation (2%), and root mean square error of 0.02 ± 0.01 m·s when plotted against CV4par assessed through a 4-parameter model. These results generated the equation CV4par = 0.92 × v400. A single T400 can be used reliably to estimate the CV4par typically derived with 6 efforts in age-group swimmers.

Does cost-effectiveness of influenza vaccine choice vary across the U.S.? An agent-based modeling study.

PubMed

DePasse, Jay V; Nowalk, Mary Patricia; Smith, Kenneth J; Raviotta, Jonathan M; Shim, Eunha; Zimmerman, Richard K; Brown, Shawn T

2017-07-13

In a prior agent-based modeling study, offering a choice of influenza vaccine type was shown to be cost-effective when the simulated population represented the large, Washington DC metropolitan area. This study calculated the public health impact and cost-effectiveness of the same four strategies: No Choice, Pediatric Choice, Adult Choice, or Choice for Both Age Groups in five United States (U.S.) counties selected to represent extremes in population age distribution. The choice offered was either inactivated influenza vaccine delivered intramuscularly with a needle (IIV-IM) or an age-appropriate needle-sparing vaccine, specifically, the nasal spray (LAIV) or intradermal (IIV-ID) delivery system. Using agent-based modeling, individuals were simulated as they interacted with others, and influenza was tracked as it spread through each population. Influenza vaccination coverage derived from Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) data, was increased by 6.5% (range 3.25%-11.25%) to reflect the effects of vaccine choice. Assuming moderate influenza infectivity, the number of averted cases was highest for the Choice for Both Age Groups in all five counties despite differing demographic profiles. In a cost-effectiveness analysis, Choice for Both Age Groups was the dominant strategy. Sensitivity analyses varying influenza infectivity, costs, and degrees of vaccine coverage increase due to choice, supported the base case findings. Offering a choice to receive a needle-sparing influenza vaccine has the potential to significantly reduce influenza disease burden and to be cost saving. Consistent findings across diverse populations confirmed these findings. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Use of Stored Carbon Reserves in Growth of Temperate Tree Roots and Leaf Buds: Analyses Using Radiocarbon Measurements and Modeling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gaudinski, Julia B.; Torn, Margaret S.; Riley, W. J.

2009-01-01

Characterizing the use of C reserves in trees is important for understanding stress responses, impacts of asynchrony between photosynthesis and growth demand, and isotopic exchanges in plant dynamic studies. Using an inadvertent, whole ecosystem radiocarbon (14C) exposure in a temperate deciduous oak forest and numerical modeling, we calculated that the mean age of stored C used to grow leaf buds and new fine root tissue is 0.5-1.0 y. The mean age of stored C used to grow new roots was about 0.7 y across a range of realistic values of 14C inputs to the system. The amount of stored Cmore » used on an annual basis to grow fine roots was between 15 and 55% of total root growth, with the range defined by the assumed 14C input profile. We estimate the annually-averaged mean age of C in new root tissues is 1-5 months. Therefore, accounting for storage C use in isotope root models may be unnecessary in all but the fastest cycling root populations (i.e., mean age <1 y). Consistent with the whole ecosystem labeling results, we found, using "bomb-14C," that the mean C age of new root tissues in three additional forest sites (one deciduous, two coniferous) was less than 2 years. We conclude that in many ecosystem types, growth from stored C is insufficient to impact bomb-14C based estimates of long root lifetimes.« less

Radiation exposure and risk assessment for critical female body organs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Atwell, William; Weyland, Mark D.; Hardy, Alva C.

1991-01-01

Space radiation exposure limits for astronauts are based on recommendations of the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements. These limits now include the age at exposure and sex of the astronaut. A recently-developed computerized anatomical female (CAF) model is discussed in detail. Computer-generated, cross-sectional data are presented to illustrate the completeness of the CAF model. By applying ray-tracing techniques, shield distribution functions have been computed to calculate absorbed dose and dose equivalent values for a variety of critical body organs (e.g., breasts, lungs, thyroid gland, etc.) and mission scenarios. Specific risk assessments, i.e., cancer induction and mortality, are reviewed.

The utility of absolute risk prediction using FRAX® and Garvan Fracture Risk Calculator in daily practice.

PubMed

van Geel, Tineke A C M; Eisman, John A; Geusens, Piet P; van den Bergh, Joop P W; Center, Jacqueline R; Dinant, Geert-Jan

2014-02-01

There are two commonly used fracture risk prediction tools FRAX(®) and Garvan Fracture Risk Calculator (GARVAN-FRC). The objective of this study was to investigate the utility of these tools in daily practice. A prospective population-based 5-year follow-up study was conducted in ten general practice centres in the Netherlands. For the analyses, the FRAX(®) and GARVAN-FRC 10-year absolute risks (FRAX(®) does not have 5-year risk prediction) for all fractures were used. Among 506 postmenopausal women aged ≥60 years (mean age: 67.8±5.8 years), 48 (9.5%) sustained a fracture during follow-up. Both tools, using BMD values, distinguish between women who did and did not fracture (10.2% vs. 6.8%, respectively for FRAX(®) and 32.4% vs. 39.1%, respectively for GARVAN-FRC, p<0.0001) at group level. However, only 8.9% of those who sustained a fracture had an estimated fracture risk ≥20% using FRAX(®) compared with 53.3% using GARVAN-FRC. Although both underestimated the observed fracture risk, the GARVAN-FRC performed significantly better for women who sustained a fracture (higher sensitivity) and FRAX(®) for women who did not sustain a fracture (higher specificity). Similar results were obtained using age related cut off points. The discriminant value of both models is at least as good as models used in other medical conditions; hence they can be used to communicate the fracture risk to patients. However, given differences in the estimated risks between FRAX(®) and GARVAN-FRC, the significance of the absolute risk must be related to country-specific recommended intervention thresholds to inform the patient. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Three-dimensional estimate of the lithospheric effective elastic thickness of the Line ridge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Minzhang; Li, Jiancheng; Jin, Taoyong; Xu, Xinyu; Xing, Lelin; Shen, Chongyang; Li, Hui

2015-09-01

Using a new bathymetry grid formed with vertical gravity gradient anomalies and ship soundings (BAT_VGG), a 1° × 1° lithospheric effective elastic thickness (Te) grid of the Line ridge was calculated with the moving window admittance technique. As a comparison, both the GEBCO_08 and SIO V15.1 bathymetry datasets were used to calculate Te as well. The results show that BAT_VGG is suitable for the calculation of lithospheric effective elastic thickness. The lithospheric effective elastic thickness of the Line ridge is shown to be low, in the range of 5.5-13 km, with an average of 8 km and a standard deviation of 1.3 km. Using the plate cooling model as a reference, most of the effective elastic thicknesses are controlled by the 150-300 °C isotherm. Seamounts are primarily present in two zones, with lithospheric ages of 20-35 Ma and 40-60 Ma, at the time of loading. Unlike the Hawaiian-Emperor chain, the lithospheric effective elastic thickness of the Line ridge does not change monotonously. The tectonic setting of the Line ridge is discussed in detail based on our Te results and the seamount ages collected from the literature. The results show that thermal and fracture activities must have played an important role in the origin and evolution of the ridge.

Development and validation of a Markov microsimulation model for the economic evaluation of treatments in osteoporosis.

PubMed

Hiligsmann, Mickaël; Ethgen, Olivier; Bruyère, Olivier; Richy, Florent; Gathon, Henry-Jean; Reginster, Jean-Yves

2009-01-01

Markov models are increasingly used in economic evaluations of treatments for osteoporosis. Most of the existing evaluations are cohort-based Markov models missing comprehensive memory management and versatility. In this article, we describe and validate an original Markov microsimulation model to accurately assess the cost-effectiveness of prevention and treatment of osteoporosis. We developed a Markov microsimulation model with a lifetime horizon and a direct health-care cost perspective. The patient history was recorded and was used in calculations of transition probabilities, utilities, and costs. To test the internal consistency of the model, we carried out an example calculation for alendronate therapy. Then, external consistency was investigated by comparing absolute lifetime risk of fracture estimates with epidemiologic data. For women at age 70 years, with a twofold increase in the fracture risk of the average population, the costs per quality-adjusted life-year gained for alendronate therapy versus no treatment were estimated at €9105 and €15,325, respectively, under full and realistic adherence assumptions. All the sensitivity analyses in terms of model parameters and modeling assumptions were coherent with expected conclusions and absolute lifetime risk of fracture estimates were within the range of previous estimates, which confirmed both internal and external consistency of the model. Microsimulation models present some major advantages over cohort-based models, increasing the reliability of the results and being largely compatible with the existing state of the art, evidence-based literature. The developed model appears to be a valid model for use in economic evaluations in osteoporosis.

Population-based Incidence of Pulmonary Nontuberculous Mycobacterial Disease in Oregon 2007 to 2012.

PubMed

Henkle, Emily; Hedberg, Katrina; Schafer, Sean; Novosad, Shannon; Winthrop, Kevin L

2015-05-01

Pulmonary nontuberculous mycobacteria (NTM) disease is a chronic, nonreportable illness, making it difficult to monitor. Although recent studies suggest an increasing prevalence of NTM disease in the United States, the incidence and temporal trends are unknown. To describe incident cases and calculate the incidence and temporal trends of pulmonary NTM disease in Oregon. We contacted all laboratories performing mycobacterial cultures on Oregon residents and collected demographic and specimen information for patients with NTM isolated during 2007 to 2012. We defined a case of pulmonary NTM disease using the 2007 American Thoracic Society/Infectious Disease Society of America microbiologic criteria. We used similar state-wide mycobacterial laboratory data from 2005 to 2006 to exclude prevalent cases from our calculations. We calculated annual pulmonary NTM disease incidence within Oregon during 2007 to 2012, described cases demographically and microbiologically, and evaluated incidence trends over time using a Poisson model. We identified 1,146 incident pulmonary NTM cases in Oregon residents from 2007 to 2012. The median age was 69 years (range, 0.9-97 yr). Cases were more likely female (56%), but among patients less than 60 years old, disease was more common in male subjects (54%). Most (86%) were Mycobacterium avium/intracellulare cases; 68 (6%) were Mycobacterium abscessus/chelonae cases. Although not statistically significant, incidence increased from 4.8/100,000 in 2007 to 5.6/100,000 in 2012 (P for trend, 0.21). Incidence increased with age, to more than 25/100,000 in patients 80 years of age or older. This is the first population-based estimate of pulmonary NTM disease incidence in a region within the United States. In Oregon, disease incidence rose slightly during 2007 to 2012, and although more common in female individuals overall, disease was more common among male individuals less than 60 years of age.

Population-based Incidence of Pulmonary Nontuberculous Mycobacterial Disease in Oregon 2007 to 2012

PubMed Central

Hedberg, Katrina; Schafer, Sean; Novosad, Shannon; Winthrop, Kevin L.

2015-01-01

Rationale: Pulmonary nontuberculous mycobacteria (NTM) disease is a chronic, nonreportable illness, making it difficult to monitor. Although recent studies suggest an increasing prevalence of NTM disease in the United States, the incidence and temporal trends are unknown. Objectives: To describe incident cases and calculate the incidence and temporal trends of pulmonary NTM disease in Oregon. Methods: We contacted all laboratories performing mycobacterial cultures on Oregon residents and collected demographic and specimen information for patients with NTM isolated during 2007 to 2012. We defined a case of pulmonary NTM disease using the 2007 American Thoracic Society/Infectious Disease Society of America microbiologic criteria. We used similar state-wide mycobacterial laboratory data from 2005 to 2006 to exclude prevalent cases from our calculations. We calculated annual pulmonary NTM disease incidence within Oregon during 2007 to 2012, described cases demographically and microbiologically, and evaluated incidence trends over time using a Poisson model. Measurements and Main Results: We identified 1,146 incident pulmonary NTM cases in Oregon residents from 2007 to 2012. The median age was 69 years (range, 0.9–97 yr). Cases were more likely female (56%), but among patients less than 60 years old, disease was more common in male subjects (54%). Most (86%) were Mycobacterium avium/intracellulare cases; 68 (6%) were Mycobacterium abscessus/chelonae cases. Although not statistically significant, incidence increased from 4.8/100,000 in 2007 to 5.6/100,000 in 2012 (P for trend, 0.21). Incidence increased with age, to more than 25/100,000 in patients 80 years of age or older. Conclusions: This is the first population-based estimate of pulmonary NTM disease incidence in a region within the United States. In Oregon, disease incidence rose slightly during 2007 to 2012, and although more common in female individuals overall, disease was more common among male individuals less than 60 years of age. PMID:25692495

Modelling linoleic acid and α-linolenic acid requirements for infants and young children in developing countries.

PubMed

Yang, Zhenyu; Huffman, Sandra L

2013-01-01

Essential fatty acids (EFAs), linoleic acid (LA) and α-linolenic acid (ALA), play a critical role in the growth and development of infants and young children. However, national guidelines for recommended intakes of EFAs are lacking in most developing countries. The objective of this study was to convert international EFA recommendations based on % of daily energy intake to recommended daily amounts for children aged 6-23 months in developing countries. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) reports adequate intakes (AIs) for ALA as 0.4-0.6% of energy intake for children 6-23 months of age and as 3.0-4.5% of energy intake for LA. In order to estimate energy intakes, FAO daily energy requirements based on body weight were used. The daily AI amounts for these EFAs were calculated using the median body weight of the World Health Organization (WHO) Growth Standard population and median body weights with varying levels of malnutrition. The AI for ALA is equivalent to 0.3-0.4, 0.3-0.5 and 0.4-0.6 g day(-1), and the AI for LA is equivalent to 2.1-3.1, 2.4-3.5 and 2.8-4.3 g day(-1) for children aged 6-8, 9-11 and 12-23 months, respectively. While the lower median body weights of children in developing countries and associated reduced energy intake recommendations give lower estimated EFA requirements, recommendations based on median body weights in the WHO Reference Growth Standard is suggested. The upper levels of these calculated AIs are lower than or equal to those in North America (ALA: 0.5 and 0.7 g day(-1); LA: 4.6 and 7 g day(-1) for children aged 6-12 months and 1-3 years, respectively). The FAO AIs (g day(-1)) calculated here for ALA and LA can serve as a guideline for developing countries for setting national standards. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Marine04 Marine radiocarbon age calibration, 26 ? 0 ka BP

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hughen, K; Baille, M; Bard, E

2004-11-01

New radiocarbon calibration curves, IntCal04 and Marine04, have been constructed and internationally ratified to replace the terrestrial and marine components of IntCal98. The new calibration datasets extend an additional 2000 years, from 0-26 ka cal BP (Before Present, 0 cal BP = AD 1950), and provide much higher resolution, greater precision and more detailed structure than IntCal98. For the Marine04 curve, dendrochronologically dated tree-ring samples, converted with a box-diffusion model to marine mixed-layer ages, cover the period from 0-10.5 ka cal BP. Beyond 10.5 ka cal BP, high-resolution marine data become available from foraminifera in varved sediments and U/Th-dated corals.more » The marine records are corrected with site-specific {sup 14}C reservoir age information to provide a single global marine mixed-layer calibration from 10.5-26.0 ka cal BP. A substantial enhancement relative to IntCal98 is the introduction of a random walk model, which takes into account the uncertainty in both the calendar age and the radiocarbon age to calculate the underlying calibration curve. The marine datasets and calibration curve for marine samples from the surface mixed layer (Marine04) are discussed here. The tree-ring datasets, sources of uncertainty, and regional offsets are presented in detail in a companion paper by Reimer et al.« less

ON-LINE CALCULATOR: FORWARD CALCULATION JOHNSON ETTINGER MODEL

EPA Science Inventory

On-Site was developed to provide modelers and model reviewers with prepackaged tools ("calculators") for performing site assessment calculations. The philosophy behind OnSite is that the convenience of the prepackaged calculators helps provide consistency for simple calculations,...

Mortality of breast cancer in Taiwan, 1971–2010: Temporal changes and an age–period–cohort analysis

PubMed Central

Ho, M.-L.; Hsiao, Y.-H.; Su, S.-Y.

2015-01-01

The current paper describes the age, period and cohort effects on breast cancer mortality in Taiwan. Female breast cancer mortality data were collected from the Taiwan death registries for 1971–2010. The annual percentage changes, age- standardised mortality rates (ASMR) and age–period–cohort model were calculated. The mortality rates increased with advancing age groups when fixing the period. The percentage change in the breast cancer mortality rate increased from 54.79% at aged 20–44 years, to 149.78% in those aged 45–64 years (between 1971–75 and 2006–10). The mortality rates in the 45–64 age group increased steadily from 1971 to 1975 and 2006–10. The 1951 birth cohorts (actual birth cohort; 1947–55) showed peak mortalities in both the 50–54 and 45–49 age groups. We found that the 1951 birth cohorts had the greatest mortality risk from breast cancer. This might be attributed to the DDT that was used in large amounts to prevent deaths from malaria in Taiwan. However, future researches require DDT data to evaluate the association between breast cancer and DDT use. PMID:25020211

A Novel Method for Age Estimation in Solar-Type Stars Through GALEX FUV Magnitudes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ho, Kelly; Subramonian, Arjun; Smith, Graeme; Shouru Shieh

2018-01-01

Utilizing an inverse association known to exist between Galaxy Evolution Explorer (GALEX) far ultraviolet (FUV) magnitudes and the chromospheric activity of F, G, and K dwarfs, we explored a method of age estimation in solar-type stars through GALEX FUV magnitudes. Sample solar-type star data were collected from refereed publications and filtered by B-V and absolute visual magnitude to ensure similarities in temperature and luminosity to the Sun. We determined FUV-B and calculated a residual index Q for all the stars, using the temperature-induced upper bound on FUV-B as the fiducial. Plotting current age estimates for the stars against Q, we discovered a strong and significant association between the variables. By applying a log-linear transformation to the data to produce a strong correlation between Q and loge Age, we confirmed the association between Q and age to be exponential. Thus, least-squares regression was used to generate an exponential model relating Q to age in solar-type stars, which can be used by astronomers. The Q-method of stellar age estimation is simple and more efficient than existing spectroscopic methods and has applications to galactic archaeology and stellar chemical composition analysis.

A Simple Method for Estimating Informative Node Age Priors for the Fossil Calibration of Molecular Divergence Time Analyses

PubMed Central

Nowak, Michael D.; Smith, Andrew B.; Simpson, Carl; Zwickl, Derrick J.

2013-01-01

Molecular divergence time analyses often rely on the age of fossil lineages to calibrate node age estimates. Most divergence time analyses are now performed in a Bayesian framework, where fossil calibrations are incorporated as parametric prior probabilities on node ages. It is widely accepted that an ideal parameterization of such node age prior probabilities should be based on a comprehensive analysis of the fossil record of the clade of interest, but there is currently no generally applicable approach for calculating such informative priors. We provide here a simple and easily implemented method that employs fossil data to estimate the likely amount of missing history prior to the oldest fossil occurrence of a clade, which can be used to fit an informative parametric prior probability distribution on a node age. Specifically, our method uses the extant diversity and the stratigraphic distribution of fossil lineages confidently assigned to a clade to fit a branching model of lineage diversification. Conditioning this on a simple model of fossil preservation, we estimate the likely amount of missing history prior to the oldest fossil occurrence of a clade. The likelihood surface of missing history can then be translated into a parametric prior probability distribution on the age of the clade of interest. We show that the method performs well with simulated fossil distribution data, but that the likelihood surface of missing history can at times be too complex for the distribution-fitting algorithm employed by our software tool. An empirical example of the application of our method is performed to estimate echinoid node ages. A simulation-based sensitivity analysis using the echinoid data set shows that node age prior distributions estimated under poor preservation rates are significantly less informative than those estimated under high preservation rates. PMID:23755303

Aging Wiener-Khinchin theorem and critical exponents of 1/f^{β} noise.

PubMed

Leibovich, N; Dechant, A; Lutz, E; Barkai, E

2016-11-01

The power spectrum of a stationary process may be calculated in terms of the autocorrelation function using the Wiener-Khinchin theorem. We here generalize the Wiener-Khinchin theorem for nonstationary processes and introduce a time-dependent power spectrum 〈S_{t_{m}}(ω)〉 where t_{m} is the measurement time. For processes with an aging autocorrelation function of the form 〈I(t)I(t+τ)〉=t^{Υ}ϕ_{EA}(τ/t), where ϕ_{EA}(x) is a nonanalytic function when x is small, we find aging 1/f^{β} noise. Aging 1/f^{β} noise is characterized by five critical exponents. We derive the relations between the scaled autocorrelation function and these exponents. We show that our definition of the time-dependent spectrum retains its interpretation as a density of Fourier modes and discuss the relation to the apparent infrared divergence of 1/f^{β} noise. We illustrate our results for blinking-quantum-dot models, single-file diffusion, and Brownian motion in a logarithmic potential.

Syphilis Among U.S.-Bound Refugees, 2009-2013.

PubMed

Nyangoma, E N; Olson, C K; Painter, J A; Posey, D L; Stauffer, W M; Naughton, M; Zhou, W; Kamb, M; Benoit, S R

2017-08-01

U.S. immigration regulations require clinical and serologic screening for syphilis for all U.S.-bound refugees 15 years of age and older. We reviewed syphilis screening results for all U.S.-bound refugees from January 1, 2009 through December 31, 2013. We calculated age-adjusted prevalence by region and nationality and assessed factors associated with syphilis seropositivity using multivariable log binomial regression models. Among 233,446 refugees, we identified 874 syphilis cases (373 cases per 100,000 refugees). The highest overall age-adjusted prevalence rates of syphilis seropositivity were observed among refugees from Africa (1340 cases per 100,000), followed by East Asia and the Pacific (397 cases per 100,000). In most regions, male sex, increasing age, and living in non-refugee camp settings were associated with syphilis seropositivity. Future analysis of test results, stage of infection, and treatment delivery overseas is warranted in order to determine the extent of transmission risk and benefits of the screening program.

Survey of Neurological Disorders in Children Aged 9-15 Years in Northern India.

PubMed

Kumar, Rashmi; Bhave, Anupama; Bhargava, Roli; Agarwal, G G

2016-04-01

The prevalence of neurological disorders in resource-poor settings, although likely to be high, is largely unexplored. The prevalence and risk factors for neurological disorders, including epilepsy and intellectual, motor, vision, and hearing deficits, in children aged 9 to 15 years in the community were investigated. A new instrument was developed, validated, and used in a 2-stage community survey for neurological disorders in Lucknow, India. Screen-positives and random proportion of screen-negatives were validated using predefined criteria. Prevalence of different neurological disorders was calculated by weighted proportions. Of 6431 children screened, 221 were positive. A total of 214 screen-positives and 251 screen-negatives were validated. Prevalence of neurological disorders was 31.3 per 1000 children of this age group (weighted 95% confidence interval = 16.5, 46.4). The final model for risk factors included age, mud house, delayed cry at birth, and previous head injury. The prevalence of neurological disorders is high in this region. Predictors of neurological disorders are largely modifiable. © The Author(s) 2015.

Image analysis of pubic bone for age estimation in a computed tomography sample.

PubMed

López-Alcaraz, Manuel; González, Pedro Manuel Garamendi; Aguilera, Inmaculada Alemán; López, Miguel Botella

2015-03-01

Radiology has demonstrated great utility for age estimation, but most of the studies are based on metrical and morphological methods in order to perform an identification profile. A simple image analysis-based method is presented, aimed to correlate the bony tissue ultrastructure with several variables obtained from the grey-level histogram (GLH) of computed tomography (CT) sagittal sections of the pubic symphysis surface and the pubic body, and relating them with age. The CT sample consisted of 169 hospital Digital Imaging and Communications in Medicine (DICOM) archives of known sex and age. The calculated multiple regression models showed a maximum R (2) of 0.533 for females and 0.726 for males, with a high intra- and inter-observer agreement. The method suggested is considered not only useful for performing an identification profile during virtopsy, but also for application in further studies in order to attach a quantitative correlation for tissue ultrastructure characteristics, without complex and expensive methods beyond image analysis.

Relationship Between the Remaining Years of Healthy Life Expectancy in Older Age and National Income Level, Educational Attainment, and Improved Water Quality.

PubMed

Kim, Jong In; Kim, Gukbin

2016-10-01

The remaining years of healthy life expectancy (RYH) at age 65 years can be calculated as RYH (65) = healthy life expectancy-aged 65 years. This study confirms the associations between socioeconomic indicators and the RYH (65) in 148 countries. The RYH data were obtained from the World Health Organization. Significant positive correlations between RYH (65) in men and women and the socioeconomic indicators national income, education level, and improved drinking water were found. Finally, the predictors of RYH (65) in men and women were used to build a model of the RYH using higher socioeconomic indicators (R(2 )= 0.744, p < .001). Overall country-level educational attainment, national income level, and improved water quality influenced the RYH at 65 years. Therefore, policymaking to improve these country-level socioeconomic factors is expected to have latent effects on RYH in older age. © The Author(s) 2016.

Multi-model Analysis of Diffusion-weighted Imaging of Normal Testes at 3.0 T: Preliminary Findings.

PubMed

Min, Xiangde; Feng, Zhaoyan; Wang, Liang; Cai, Jie; Li, Basen; Ke, Zan; Zhang, Peipei; You, Huijuan; Yan, Xu

2018-04-01

This study aimed to establish diffusion quantitative parameters (apparent diffusion coefficient [ADC], DDC, α, D app , and K app ) in normal testes at 3.0 T. Sixty-four healthy volunteers in two age groups (A: 10-39 years; B: ≥ 40 years) underwent diffusion-weighted imaging scanning at 3.0 T. ADC 1000 , ADC 2000 , ADC 3000 , DDC, α, D app , and K app were calculated using the mono-exponential, stretched-exponential, and kurtosis models. The correlations between parameters and the age were analyzed. The parameters were compared between the age groups and between the right and the left testes. The average ADC 1000 , ADC 2000 , ADC 3000 , DDC, α, D app , and K app values did not significantly differ between the right and the left testes (P > .05 for all). The following significant correlations were found: positive correlations between age and testicular ADC 1000 , ADC 2000 , ADC 3000 , DDC, and D app (r = 0.516, 0.518, 0.518, 0.521, and 0.516, respectively; P < .01 for all) and negative correlations between age and testicular α and K app (r = -0.363, -0.427, respectively; P < .01 for both). Compared to group B, in group A, ADC 1000 , ADC 2000 , ADC 3000 , DDC, and D app were significantly lower (P < .05 for all), but α and K app were significantly higher (P < .05 for both). Our study demonstrated the applicability of the testicular mono-exponential, stretched-exponential, and kurtosis models. Our results can help establish a baseline for the normal testicular parameters in these diffusion models. The contralateral normal testis can serve as a suitable reference for evaluating the abnormalities of the other side. The effect of age on these parameters requires further attention. Copyright © 2018 The Association of University Radiologists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.