Ngram time series model to predict activity type and energy cost from wrist, hip and ankle accelerometers: implications of age

PubMed Central

Strath, Scott J; Kate, Rohit J; Keenan, Kevin G; Welch, Whitney A; Swartz, Ann M

2016-01-01

To develop and test time series single site and multi-site placement models, we used wrist, hip and ankle processed accelerometer data to estimate energy cost and type of physical activity in adults. Ninety-nine subjects in three age groups (18–39, 40–64, 65 + years) performed 11 activities while wearing three triaxial accelereometers: one each on the non-dominant wrist, hip, and ankle. During each activity net oxygen cost (METs) was assessed. The time series of accelerometer signals were represented in terms of uniformly discretized values called bins. Support Vector Machine was used for activity classification with bins and every pair of bins used as features. Bagged decision tree regression was used for net metabolic cost prediction. To evaluate model performance we employed the jackknife leave-one-out cross validation method. Single accelerometer and multi-accelerometer site model estimates across and within age group revealed similar accuracy, with a bias range of −0.03 to 0.01 METs, bias percent of −0.8 to 0.3%, and a rMSE range of 0.81–1.04 METs. Multi-site accelerometer location models improved activity type classification over single site location models from a low of 69.3% to a maximum of 92.8% accuracy. For each accelerometer site location model, or combined site location model, percent accuracy classification decreased as a function of age group, or when young age groups models were generalized to older age groups. Specific age group models on average performed better than when all age groups were combined. A time series computation show promising results for predicting energy cost and activity type. Differences in prediction across age group, a lack of generalizability across age groups, and that age group specific models perform better than when all ages are combined needs to be considered as analytic calibration procedures to detect energy cost and type are further developed. PMID:26449155

Aging Trajectories in Different Body Systems Share Common Environmental Etiology: The Healthy Aging Twin Study (HATS).

PubMed

Moayyeri, Alireza; Hart, Deborah J; Snieder, Harold; Hammond, Christopher J; Spector, Timothy D; Steves, Claire J

2016-02-01

Little is known about the extent to which aging trajectories of different body systems share common sources of variance. We here present a large twin study investigating the trajectories of change in five systems: cardiovascular, respiratory, skeletal, morphometric, and metabolic. Longitudinal clinical data were collected on 3,508 female twins in the TwinsUK registry (complete pairs:740 monozygotic (MZ), 986 dizygotic (DZ), mean age at entry 48.9 ± 10.4, range 18-75 years; mean follow-up 10.2 ± 2.8 years, range 4-17.8 years). Panel data on multiple age-related variables were used to estimate biological ages for each individual at each time point, in linear mixed effects models. A weighted average approach was used to combine variables within predefined body system groups. Aging trajectories for each system in each individual were then constructed using linear modeling. Multivariate structural equation modeling of these aging trajectories showed low genetic effects (heritability), ranging from 2% in metabolic aging to 22% in cardiovascular aging. However, we found a significant effect of shared environmental factors on the variations in aging trajectories in cardiovascular (54%), skeletal (34%), morphometric (53%), and metabolic systems (53%). The remainder was due to environmental factors unique to each individual plus error. Multivariate Cholesky decomposition showed that among aging trajectories for various body systems there were significant and substantial correlations between the unique environmental latent factors as well as shared environmental factors. However, there was no evidence for a single common factor for aging. This study, the first of its kind in aging, suggests that diverse organ systems share non-genetic sources of variance for aging trajectories. Confirmatory studies are needed using population-based twin cohorts and alternative methods of handling missing data.

Low-Temperature Thermochronology of Laramide Ranges in Montana and Wyoming Provides Information on Exhumation and Tectonics Associated with Flat-Slab Subduction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Armenta, M.; Carrapa, B.; DeCelles, P. G.

2014-12-01

Timing of exhumation of Laramide basement uplifts can be used as a proxy for tectonic processes associated with thick-skinned deformation resulting from flat-slab subduction. Despite its significance, the timing and pattern of Laramide deformation remains poorly constrained in Montana. Thermochronological data from Wyoming indicate exhumation of Laramide ranges during the late Cretaceous and Paleogene. Whereas a few data exist for the Bearthooth Range in Montana; the exhumation history of most of the Montana ranges remains unexplored preventing testing of current tectonic models. We report apatite fission track thermochronologic (AFT) data from modern river sands derived from Laramide ranges, bedrock basement samples, and synorogenic conglomerate clasts to determine the regional exhumation history of the Beartooth, Gravelly, Tobacco Root, Ruby, the Highland Mountains, and the Wind River Range. AFT permits reconstruction of thermal histories and rates of erosion of the upper few kilometers of the crust. In particular detrital AFT of river sands provides information on regional exhumation of the drainage area. AFT detrital ages derived from the southern end of the Beartooth Range are dominated by a 60-80 Ma signal, consistent with ages reported for bedrock basement samples in the Beartooth Range. A Cenozoic synorogenic conglomerate clast was obtained from the Highland Mountains, AFT results show a 69.56 +/- 5.45 Ma cooling age. In the Wind River Range, Wyoming AFT data from a Cenozoic synorogenic conglomerate clast from the Wind River Formation indicates a 59.32 +/- 4.83 Ma cooling age. This age is consistent with AFT ages from Gannett Peak indicating rapid cooling at ~60 Ma and ~50 Ma (Fan and Carrapa, 2014). Overall, samples from the easternmost ranges, the Beartooth and Bighorn, clearly preserve a Cretaceous signal; samples from Wind River Range and the rest of southwest Montana mainly record a Cenozoic signal. This suggests deeper and younger exhumation to the west than to the east. These results combined with thermal modeling provide additional constraints on the tectono-thermal history of Laramide ranges. In addition, these results allow for a temporal-spatial comparison between cooling and exhumation in the Montana and Wyoming Laramide regions and help test current models of the Laramide Orogeny.

Round-robin 230Th– 234U age dating of bulk uranium for nuclear forensics

DOE PAGES

Gaffney, Amy M.; Hubert, Amélie; Kinman, William S.; ...

2015-07-30

We report that in an inter-laboratory measurement comparison study, four laboratories determined 230Th– 234U model ages of uranium certified reference material NBL U050 using isotope dilution mass spectrometry. The model dates determined by the participating laboratories range from 9 March 1956 to 19 October 1957, and are indistinguishable given the associated measurement uncertainties. These model ages are concordant with to slightly older than the known production age of NBL U050.

Round-robin 230Th– 234U age dating of bulk uranium for nuclear forensics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gaffney, Amy M.; Hubert, Amélie; Kinman, William S.

We report that in an inter-laboratory measurement comparison study, four laboratories determined 230Th– 234U model ages of uranium certified reference material NBL U050 using isotope dilution mass spectrometry. The model dates determined by the participating laboratories range from 9 March 1956 to 19 October 1957, and are indistinguishable given the associated measurement uncertainties. These model ages are concordant with to slightly older than the known production age of NBL U050.

The Use of Informative Priors in Bayesian Modeling Age-at-death; a Quick Look at Chronological and Biological Age Changes in the Sacroiliac Joint in American Males

PubMed Central

Godde, Kanya

2017-01-01

The aim of this study is to examine how well different informative priors model age-at-death in Bayesian statistics, which will shed light on how the skeleton ages, particularly at the sacroiliac joint. Data from four samples were compared for their performance as informative priors for auricular surface age-at-death estimation: (1) American population from US Census data; (2) county data from the US Census data; (3) a local cemetery; and (4) a skeletal collection. The skeletal collection and cemetery are located within the county that was sampled. A Gompertz model was applied to compare survivorship across the four samples. Transition analysis parameters, coupled with the generated Gompertz parameters, were input into Bayes' theorem to generate highest posterior density ranges from posterior density functions. Transition analysis describes the age at which an individual transitions from one age phase to another. The result is age ranges that should describe the chronological age of 90% of the individuals who fall in a particular phase. Cumulative binomial tests indicate the method performed lower than 90% at capturing chronological age as assigned to a biological phase, despite wide age ranges at older ages. The samples performed similarly overall, despite small differences in survivorship. Collectively, these results show that as we age, the senescence pattern becomes more variable. More local samples performed better at describing the aging process than more general samples, which implies practitioners need to consider sample selection when using the literature to diagnose and work with patients with sacroiliac joint pain. PMID:29546217

Low-temperature thermochronology of the Laramide Ranges and eastward translation of shortening in the Sevier Belt, Wyoming, Utah and Montana

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peyton, Sara Lynn

This dissertation contains two studies that use very different techniques to investigate the Mesozoic and Cenozoic tectonics of the western USA. The first study investigates shortening in the Sevier thrust belt of northeast Utah and southwest Wyoming using cross sections and seismic reflection data. The second study investigates the low-temperature thermochronology of the Laramide Ranges using apatite (U-Th)/He dating. We used cross sections and seismic reflection data to investigate bed length discrepancies within the hanging wall of the Absaroka thrust in the Sevier thrust belt of northeast Utah and southwest Wyoming. Restoration of cross sections suggests that there was ˜8-14 km of pre-Absaroka-thrust shortening above the Jurassic Preuss salt detachment, but not below it, in the hanging wall of the Absaroka thrust. Reflection seismic data over the hanging wall of the Crawford thrust show that the Crawford thrust is not offset along the Preuss salt detachment, indicating that the additional shortening on the Absaroka plate was transferred east before main movement on the Crawford thrust. Although early displacement on the Crawford thrust cannot be ruled out as the cause of the extra shortening, surface and subsurface geology suggests slip from the western thrust system (Willard and Lost Creek thrusts) was transferred several tens of kilometers east along the Jurassic Preuss salt detachment between ˜102-90 Ma, to the future location of the Absaroka thrust hanging wall. The lack of deformation of the Crawford thrust on the seismic data, along with shortening and extension estimates from cross sections, also indicate that the magnitude of Paleocene and post-early Eocene shortening on the Medicine Butte thrust was essentially offset by subsequent extension on the middle Eocene to late Oligocene Almy-Acocks normal-fault system. For the second study in this dissertation, we dated 91 borehole and surface samples from Laramide-age, basement-cored uplifts of the Rocky Mountain foreland (Wind River, Beartooth, Bighorn and Laramie Ranges) and the Uncompahgre Uplift using the apatite (U-Th)/He system. Apatite (U-Th)/He ages generally decrease with increasing subsurface depth (decreasing elevation) and most samples show age dispersion ranging from tens to hundreds of Myr. Additionally, several samples show correlations between apatite (U-Th)/He age and effective U concentration (eU = [U] + 0.235[Th]) of the crystal, indicating that radiation damage has affected He diffusivity, and hence (U-Th)/ He age. Many surface and near-surface samples have apatite (U-Th)/He ages that are older than corresponding apatite fission-track ages. Forward modeling of Laramide-type thermal histories using a radiation damage diffusion model showed that (U-Th)/He ages may be widely dispersed, and may be older than corresponding apatite fission-track ages within a fossil He partial retention zone. Most of our samples, however, do not show the correlation between (U-Th)/He age and eU predicted by radiation damage diffusion models. We investigated the influence of both grain size and eU content and show that the effects of grain size can obscure (U-Th)/ He age-eU correlations and, similarly, the effect of eU variation can obscure (U-Th)/ He age-grain size correlations. (U-Th)/He ages that are older than fission-track ages from high peaks in the Wind River Range, and from some samples from the Beartooth Range, are most likely the result of He implantation from high eU phases. Best-fit thermal histories from the inversion of age-eU pairs were extrapolated to other elevations to create model age-elevation profiles for a range of eU concentrations. These model profiles approximate our real data. Inverse modeling of (U-Th)/He age data suggests that rapid exhumation within the Laramide province likely began earlier in the Bighorn Mountains (before ˜71 Ma) than the Beartooth Range (before ˜58 Ma), and that the borehole at the northern end of the Laramie Range penetrated a fault sliver at depth.

Wolf (Canis lupus) Generation Time and Proportion of Current Breeding Females by Age.

PubMed

Mech, L David; Barber-Meyer, Shannon M; Erb, John

2016-01-01

Information is sparse about aspects of female wolf (Canis lupus) breeding in the wild, including age of first reproduction, mean age of primiparity, generation time, and proportion of each age that breeds in any given year. We studied these subjects in 86 wolves (113 captures) in the Superior National Forest (SNF), Minnesota (MN), during 1972-2013 where wolves were legally protected for most of the period, and in 159 harvested wolves from throughout MN wolf range during 2012-2014. Breeding status of SNF wolves were assessed via nipple measurements, and wolves from throughout MN wolf range, by placental scars. In the SNF, proportions of currently breeding females (those breeding in the year sampled) ranged from 19% at age 2 to 80% at age 5, and from throughout wolf range, from 33% at age 2 to 100% at age 7. Excluding pups and yearlings, only 33% to 36% of SNF females and 58% of females from throughout MN wolf range bred in any given year. Generation time for SNF wolves was 4.3 years and for MN wolf range, 4.7 years. These findings will be useful in modeling wolf population dynamics and in wolf genetic and dog-domestication studies.

Wolf (Canis lupus) generation time and proportion of current breeding females by age

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mech, L. David; Barber-Meyer, Shannon M.; Erb, John

2016-01-01

Information is sparse about aspects of female wolf (Canis lupus) breeding in the wild, including age of first reproduction, mean age of primiparity, generation time, and proportion of each age that breeds in any given year. We studied these subjects in 86 wolves (113 captures) in the Superior National Forest (SNF), Minnesota (MN), during 1972–2013 where wolves were legally protected for most of the period, and in 159 harvested wolves from throughout MN wolf range during 2012–2014. Breeding status of SNF wolves were assessed via nipple measurements, and wolves from throughout MN wolf range, by placental scars. In the SNF, proportions of currently breeding females (those breeding in the year sampled) ranged from 19% at age 2 to 80% at age 5, and from throughout wolf range, from 33% at age 2 to 100% at age 7. Excluding pups and yearlings, only 33% to 36% of SNF females and 58% of females from throughout MN wolf range bred in any given year. Generation time for SNF wolves was 4.3 years and for MN wolf range, 4.7 years. These findings will be useful in modeling wolf population dynamics and in wolf genetic and dog-domestication studies.

Long-range correlations and fractal dynamics in C. elegans: Changes with aging and stress

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alves, Luiz G. A.; Winter, Peter B.; Ferreira, Leonardo N.; Brielmann, Renée M.; Morimoto, Richard I.; Amaral, Luís A. N.

2017-08-01

Reduced motor control is one of the most frequent features associated with aging and disease. Nonlinear and fractal analyses have proved to be useful in investigating human physiological alterations with age and disease. Similar findings have not been established for any of the model organisms typically studied by biologists, though. If the physiology of a simpler model organism displays the same characteristics, this fact would open a new research window on the control mechanisms that organisms use to regulate physiological processes during aging and stress. Here, we use a recently introduced animal-tracking technology to simultaneously follow tens of Caenorhabdits elegans for several hours and use tools from fractal physiology to quantitatively evaluate the effects of aging and temperature stress on nematode motility. Similar to human physiological signals, scaling analysis reveals long-range correlations in numerous motility variables, fractal properties in behavioral shifts, and fluctuation dynamics over a wide range of timescales. These properties change as a result of a superposition of age and stress-related adaptive mechanisms that regulate motility.

Metal-rich, Metal-poor: Updated Stellar Population Models for Old Stellar Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Conroy, Charlie; Villaume, Alexa; van Dokkum, Pieter G.; Lind, Karin

2018-02-01

We present updated stellar population models appropriate for old ages (>1 Gyr) and covering a wide range in metallicities (‑1.5 ≲ [Fe/H] ≲ 0.3). These models predict the full spectral variation associated with individual element abundance variation as a function of metallicity and age. The models span the optical–NIR wavelength range (0.37–2.4 μm), include a range of initial mass functions, and contain the flexibility to vary 18 individual elements including C, N, O, Mg, Si, Ca, Ti, and Fe. To test the fidelity of the models, we fit them to integrated light optical spectra of 41 Galactic globular clusters (GCs). The value of testing models against GCs is that their ages, metallicities, and detailed abundance patterns have been derived from the Hertzsprung–Russell diagram in combination with high-resolution spectroscopy of individual stars. We determine stellar population parameters from fits to all wavelengths simultaneously (“full spectrum fitting”), and demonstrate explicitly with mock tests that this approach produces smaller uncertainties at fixed signal-to-noise ratio than fitting a standard set of 14 line indices. Comparison of our integrated-light results to literature values reveals good agreement in metallicity, [Fe/H]. When restricting to GCs without prominent blue horizontal branch populations, we also find good agreement with literature values for ages, [Mg/Fe], [Si/Fe], and [Ti/Fe].

Using Transport Diagnostics to Understand Chemistry Climate Model Ozone Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Strahan, S. E.; Douglass, A. R.; Stolarski, R. S.; Akiyoshi, H.; Bekki, S.; Braesicke, P.; Butchart, N.; Chipperfield, M. P.; Cugnet, D.; Dhomse, S.;

Automatic Information Processing and High Performance Skills: Individual Differences and Mechanisms of Performance Improvement in Search-Detection and Complex Task

DTIC Science & Technology

1992-09-01

abilities is fit along with the autoregressive process. Initially, the influences on search performance of within-group age and sex were included as control...Results: PerformanceLAbility Structure Measurement Model: Ability Structure The correlations between all the ability measures, age, and sex are...subsequent analyses for young adults. Age and sex were included as control variables. There was an age range of 15 years; this range is sufficiently large that

Successful Aging and Its Discontents: A Systematic Review of the Social Gerontology Literature

PubMed Central

Martinson, Marty; Berridge, Clara

2015-01-01

Purpose of the Study: The purpose of this study was to analyze the range of critiques of successful aging models and the suggestions for improvement as expressed in the social gerontology literature. Design and Methods: We conducted a systematic literature review using the following criteria: journal articles retrieved in the Abstracts in Social Gerontology, published 1987–2013, successful aging/ageing in the title or text (n = 453), a critique of successful aging models as a key component of the article. Sixty-seven articles met the criteria. Qualitative methods were used to identify key themes and inductively configure meanings across the range of critiques. Results: The critiques and remedies fell into 4 categories. The Add and Stir group suggested a multidimensional expansion of successful aging criteria and offered an array of additions. The Missing Voices group advocated for adding older adults’ subjective meanings of successful aging to established objective measures. The Hard Hitting Critiques group called for more just and inclusive frameworks that embrace diversity, avoid stigma and discrimination, and intervene at structural contexts of aging. The New Frames and Names group presented alternative ideal models often grounded in Eastern philosophies. Implications: The vast array of criteria that gerontologists collectively offered to expand Rowe and Kahn’s original successful model is symptomatic of the problem that a normative model is by definition exclusionary. Greater reflexivity about gerontology’s use of “successful aging” and other normative models is needed. PMID:24814830

Dynamic stiffness of chemically and physically ageing rubber vibration isolators in the audible frequency range: Part 2—waveguide solution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kari, Leif

2017-09-01

The dynamic stiffness of a chemically and physically ageing rubber vibration isolator in the audible frequency range is modelled as a function of ageing temperature, ageing time, actual temperature, time, frequency and isolator dimension. In particular, the dynamic stiffness for an axially symmetric, homogeneously aged rubber vibration isolator is derived by waveguides where the eigenmodes given by the dispersion relation for an infinite cylinder satisfying traction free radial surface boundary condition are matched to satisfy the displacement boundary conditions at the lateral surface ends of the finite rubber cylinder. The constitutive equations are derived in a companion paper (Part 1). The dynamic stiffness is calculated over the whole audible frequency range 20-20,000 Hz at several physical ageing times for a temperature history starting at thermodynamic equilibrium at +25°C and exposed by a sudden temperature step down to -60°C and at several chemical ageing times at temperature +25°C with simultaneous molecular network scission and reformation. The dynamic stiffness results are displaying a strong frequency dependence at a short physical ageing time, showing stiffness magnitude peaks and troughs, and a strong physical ageing time dependence, showing a large stiffness magnitude increase with the increased physical ageing time, while the peaks and troughs are smoothed out. Likewise, stiffness magnitude peaks and troughs are frequency-shifted with increased chemical ageing time. The developed model is possible to apply for dynamic stiffness prediction of rubber vibration isolator over a broad audible frequency range under realistic environmental condition of chemical ageing, mainly attributed to oxygen exposure from outside and of physical ageing, primarily perceived at low-temperature steps.

The Two- and Three-Dimensional Models of the HK-WISC: A Confirmatory Factor Analysis.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chan, David W.; Lin, Wen-Ying

1996-01-01

Confirmatory analyses on the Hong Kong Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children (HK-WISC) provided support for composite score interpretation based on the two- and three-dimensional models across age levels. Test sample was comprised of 1,100 children, ranging in age from 5 to 15 years at all 11 age levels specified by the HK-WISC. (KW)

Age-Related Effects of Alcohol from Adolescent, Adult, and Aged Populations Using Human and Animal Models

PubMed Central

Squeglia, Lindsay M.; Boissoneault, Jeff; Van Skike, Candice E.; Nixon, Sara Jo; Matthews, Douglas B.

2014-01-01

Background This review incorporates current research examining alcohol's differential effects on adolescents, adults, and aged populations in both animal and clinical models. Methods The studies presented range from cognitive, behavioral, molecular, and neuroimaging techniques, leading to a more comprehensive understanding of how acute and chronic alcohol use affects the brain throughout the life span. Results Age of life is a significant factor in determining the effect of alcohol on brain functioning. Adolescents and aged populations may be more negatively affected by heavy alcohol use when compared to adults. Conclusions Investigations limiting alcohol effects to a single age group constrains understanding of differential trajectories and outcomes following acute and chronic use. To meaningfully address the sequencing and interaction effects of alcohol and age, the field must incorporate collaborative and integrated research efforts focused on interdisciplinary questions facilitated by engaging basic and applied scientists with expertise in a range of disciplines including alcohol, neurodevelopment, and aging. PMID:25156779

Optimization models for degrouping population data.

PubMed

Bermúdez, Silvia; Blanquero, Rafael

2016-07-01

In certain countries population data are available in grouped form only, usually as quinquennial age groups plus a large open-ended range for the elderly. However, official statistics call for data by individual age since many statistical operations, such as the calculation of demographic indicators, require the use of ungrouped population data. In this paper a number of mathematical models are proposed which, starting from population data given in age groups, enable these ranges to be degrouped into age-specific population values without leaving a fractional part. Unlike other existing procedures for disaggregating demographic data, ours makes it possible to process several years' data simultaneously in a coherent way, and provides accurate results longitudinally as well as transversally. This procedure is also shown to be helpful in dealing with degrouped population data affected by noise, such as those affected by the age-heaping phenomenon.

A feature-based developmental model of the infant brain in structural MRI.

PubMed

Toews, Matthew; Wells, William M; Zöllei, Lilla

2012-01-01

In this paper, anatomical development is modeled as a collection of distinctive image patterns localized in space and time. A Bayesian posterior probability is defined over a random variable of subject age, conditioned on data in the form of scale-invariant image features. The model is automatically learned from a large set of images exhibiting significant variation, used to discover anatomical structure related to age and development, and fit to new images to predict age. The model is applied to a set of 230 infant structural MRIs of 92 subjects acquired at multiple sites over an age range of 8-590 days. Experiments demonstrate that the model can be used to identify age-related anatomical structure, and to predict the age of new subjects with an average error of 72 days.

Survival in Adult Lung Transplant Recipients Receiving Pediatric Versus Adult Donor Allografts.

PubMed

Hayes, Don; Whitson, Bryan A; Ghadiali, Samir N; Lloyd, Eric A; Tobias, Joseph D; Mansour, Heidi M; Black, Sylvester M

2015-10-01

Recent evidence showed that pediatric donor lungs increased rates of allograft failure in adult lung transplant recipients; however, the influence on survival is unclear. The United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) database was queried from 2005 to 2013 for adult lung transplant recipients (≥18 years) to assess survival differences among donor age categories (<18 years, 18 to 29 years, 30 to 59 years, ≥60 years). Of 12,297 adult lung transplants, 12,209 were used for univariate Cox models and Kaplan-Meier (KM) analysis and 11,602 for multivariate Cox models. A total of 1,187 adult recipients received pediatric donor lungs compared with 11,110 receiving adult donor organs. Univariate and multivariate Cox models found no difference in survival between donor ages 0 to 17 and donor ages 18 to 29, whereas donor ages 60 and older were significantly associated with increased mortality hazard, relative to the modal category of donor ages 30 to 59 (adjusted hazard ratio = 1.381; 95% confidence interval = 1.188% to 1.606%; p < 0.001). Interactions between recipient and donor age range found that the oldest donor age range was negatively associated with survival among middle-aged (30 to 59) and older (≥60) lung transplant recipients. Pediatric donor lung allografts were not negatively associated with survival in adult lung transplant recipients; however, the oldest donor age range was associated with increased mortality hazard for adult lung transplant recipients. Copyright © 2015 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evaluation and optimisation of current milrinone prescribing for the treatment and prevention of low cardiac output syndrome in paediatric patients after open heart surgery using a physiology-based pharmacokinetic drug-disease model.

PubMed

Vogt, Winnie

2014-01-01

Milrinone is the drug of choice for the treatment and prevention of low cardiac output syndrome (LCOS) in paediatric patients after open heart surgery across Europe. Discrepancies, however, among prescribing guidance, clinical studies and practice pattern require clarification to ensure safe and effective prescribing. However, the clearance prediction equations derived from classical pharmacokinetic modelling provide limited support as they have recently failed a clinical practice evaluation. Therefore, the objective of this study was to evaluate current milrinone dosing using physiology-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modelling and simulation to complement the existing pharmacokinetic knowledge and propose optimised dosing regimens as a basis for improving the standard of care for paediatric patients. A PBPK drug-disease model using a population approach was developed in three steps from healthy young adults to adult patients and paediatric patients with and without LCOS after open heart surgery. Pre- and postoperative organ function values from adult and paediatric patients were collected from literature and integrated into a disease model as factorial changes from the reference values in healthy adults aged 20-40 years. The disease model was combined with the PBPK drug model and evaluated against existing pharmacokinetic data. Model robustness was assessed by parametric sensitivity analysis. In the next step, virtual patient populations were created, each with 1,000 subjects reflecting the average adult and paediatric patient characteristics with regard to age, sex, bodyweight and height. They were integrated into the PBPK drug-disease model to evaluate the effectiveness of current milrinone dosing in achieving the therapeutic target range of 100-300 ng/mL milrinone in plasma. Optimised dosing regimens were subsequently developed. The pharmacokinetics of milrinone in healthy young adults as well as adult and paediatric patients were accurately described with an average fold error of 1.1 ± 0.1 (mean ± standard deviation) and mean relative deviation of 1.5 ± 0.3 as measures of bias and precision, respectively. Normalised maximum sensitivity coefficients for model input parameters ranged from -0.84 to 0.71, which indicated model robustness. The evaluation of milrinone dosing across different paediatric age groups showed a non-linear age dependence of total plasma clearance and exposure differences of a factor 1.4 between patients with and without LCOS for a fixed dosing regimen. None of the currently used dosing regimens for milrinone achieved the therapeutic target range across all paediatric age groups and adult patients, so optimised dosing regimens were developed that considered the age-dependent and pathophysiological differences. The PBPK drug-disease model for milrinone in paediatric patients with and without LCOS after open heart surgery highlights that age, disease and surgery differently impact the pharmacokinetics of milrinone, and that current milrinone dosing for LCOS is suboptimal to maintain the therapeutic target range across the entire paediatric age range. Thus, optimised dosing strategies are proposed to ensure safe and effective prescribing.

Wolf (Canis lupus) Generation Time and Proportion of Current Breeding Females by Age

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Information is sparse about aspects of female wolf (Canis lupus) breeding in the wild, including age of first reproduction, mean age of primiparity, generation time, and proportion of each age that breeds in any given year. We studied these subjects in 86 wolves (113 captures) in the Superior National Forest (SNF), Minnesota (MN), during 1972–2013 where wolves were legally protected for most of the period, and in 159 harvested wolves from throughout MN wolf range during 2012–2014. Breeding status of SNF wolves were assessed via nipple measurements, and wolves from throughout MN wolf range, by placental scars. In the SNF, proportions of currently breeding females (those breeding in the year sampled) ranged from 19% at age 2 to 80% at age 5, and from throughout wolf range, from 33% at age 2 to 100% at age 7. Excluding pups and yearlings, only 33% to 36% of SNF females and 58% of females from throughout MN wolf range bred in any given year. Generation time for SNF wolves was 4.3 years and for MN wolf range, 4.7 years. These findings will be useful in modeling wolf population dynamics and in wolf genetic and dog-domestication studies. PMID:27258193

A Feature-based Developmental Model of the Infant Brain in Structural MRI

PubMed Central

Toews, Matthew; Wells, William M.; Zöllei, Lilla

2014-01-01

In this paper, anatomical development is modeled as a collection of distinctive image patterns localized in space and time. A Bayesian posterior probability is defined over a random variable of subject age, conditioned on data in the form of scale-invariant image features. The model is automatically learned from a large set of images exhibiting significant variation, used to discover anatomical structure related to age and development, and fit to new images to predict age. The model is applied to a set of 230 infant structural MRIs of 92 subjects acquired at multiple sites over an age range of 8-590 days. Experiments demonstrate that the model can be used to identify age-related anatomical structure, and to predict the age of new subjects with an average error of 72 days. PMID:23286050

Does age matter? The impact of rodent age on study outcomes.

PubMed

Jackson, Samuel J; Andrews, Nick; Ball, Doug; Bellantuono, Ilaria; Gray, James; Hachoumi, Lamia; Holmes, Alan; Latcham, Judy; Petrie, Anja; Potter, Paul; Rice, Andrew; Ritchie, Alison; Stewart, Michelle; Strepka, Carol; Yeoman, Mark; Chapman, Kathryn

2017-04-01

Rodent models produce data which underpin biomedical research and non-clinical drug trials, but translation from rodents into successful clinical outcomes is often lacking. There is a growing body of evidence showing that improving experimental design is key to improving the predictive nature of rodent studies and reducing the number of animals used in research. Age, one important factor in experimental design, is often poorly reported and can be overlooked. The authors conducted a survey to assess the age used for a range of models, and the reasoning for age choice. From 297 respondents providing 611 responses, researchers reported using rodents most often in the 6-20 week age range regardless of the biology being studied. The age referred to as 'adult' by respondents varied between six and 20 weeks. Practical reasons for the choice of rodent age were frequently given, with increased cost associated with using older animals and maintenance of historical data comparability being two important limiting factors. These results highlight that choice of age is inconsistent across the research community and often not based on the development or cellular ageing of the system being studied. This could potentially result in decreased scientific validity and increased experimental variability. In some cases the use of older animals may be beneficial. Increased scientific rigour in the choice of the age of rodent may increase the translation of rodent models to humans.

Does age matter? The impact of rodent age on study outcomes

PubMed Central

Andrews, Nick; Ball, Doug; Bellantuono, Ilaria; Gray, James; Hachoumi, Lamia; Holmes, Alan; Latcham, Judy; Petrie, Anja; Potter, Paul; Rice, Andrew; Ritchie, Alison; Stewart, Michelle; Strepka, Carol; Yeoman, Mark; Chapman, Kathryn

2016-01-01

Rodent models produce data which underpin biomedical research and non-clinical drug trials, but translation from rodents into successful clinical outcomes is often lacking. There is a growing body of evidence showing that improving experimental design is key to improving the predictive nature of rodent studies and reducing the number of animals used in research. Age, one important factor in experimental design, is often poorly reported and can be overlooked. The authors conducted a survey to assess the age used for a range of models, and the reasoning for age choice. From 297 respondents providing 611 responses, researchers reported using rodents most often in the 6–20 week age range regardless of the biology being studied. The age referred to as ‘adult’ by respondents varied between six and 20 weeks. Practical reasons for the choice of rodent age were frequently given, with increased cost associated with using older animals and maintenance of historical data comparability being two important limiting factors. These results highlight that choice of age is inconsistent across the research community and often not based on the development or cellular ageing of the system being studied. This could potentially result in decreased scientific validity and increased experimental variability. In some cases the use of older animals may be beneficial. Increased scientific rigour in the choice of the age of rodent may increase the translation of rodent models to humans. PMID:27307423

A radiographic study of the mandibular third molar root development in different ethnic groups.

PubMed

Liversidge, H M; Peariasamy, K; Folayan, M O; Adeniyi, A O; Ngom, P I; Mikami, Y; Shimada, Y; Kuroe, K; Tvete, I F; Kvaal, S I

2017-12-01

The nature of differences in the timing of tooth formation between ethnic groups is important when estimating age. To calculate age of transition of the mandibular third (M3) molar tooth stages from archived dental radiographs from sub-Saharan Africa, Malaysia, Japan and two groups from London UK (Whites and Bangladeshi). The number of radiographs was 4555 (2028 males, 2527 females) with an age range 10-25 years. The left M3 was staged into Moorrees stages. A probit model was fitted to calculate mean ages for transitions between stages for males and females and each ethnic group separately. The estimated age distributions given each M3 stage was calculated. To assess differences in timing of M3 between ethnic groups, three models were proposed: a separate model for each ethnic group, a joint model and a third model combining some aspects across groups. The best model fit was tested using Bayesian and Akaikes information criteria (BIC and AIC) and log likelihood ratio test. Differences in mean ages of M3 root stages were found between ethnic groups, however all groups showed large standard deviation values. The AIC and log likelihood ratio test indicated that a separate model for each ethnic group was best. Small differences were also noted between timing of M3 between males and females, with the exception of the Malaysian group. These findings suggests that features of a reference data set (wide age range and uniform age distribution) and a Bayesian statistical approach are more important than population specific convenience samples to estimate age of an individual using M3. Some group differences were evident in M3 timing, however, this has some impact on the confidence interval of estimated age in females and little impact in males because of the large variation in age.

Characterizing structural association alterations within brain networks in normal aging using Gaussian Bayesian networks.

PubMed

Guo, Xiaojuan; Wang, Yan; Chen, Kewei; Wu, Xia; Zhang, Jiacai; Li, Ke; Jin, Zhen; Yao, Li

2014-01-01

Recent multivariate neuroimaging studies have revealed aging-related alterations in brain structural networks. However, the sensory/motor networks such as the auditory, visual and motor networks, have obtained much less attention in normal aging research. In this study, we used Gaussian Bayesian networks (BN), an approach investigating possible inter-regional directed relationship, to characterize aging effects on structural associations between core brain regions within each of these structural sensory/motor networks using volumetric MRI data. We then further examined the discriminability of BN models for the young (N = 109; mean age =22.73 years, range 20-28) and old (N = 82; mean age =74.37 years, range 60-90) groups. The results of the BN modeling demonstrated that structural associations exist between two homotopic brain regions from the left and right hemispheres in each of the three networks. In particular, compared with the young group, the old group had significant connection reductions in each of the three networks and lesser connection numbers in the visual network. Moreover, it was found that the aging-related BN models could distinguish the young and old individuals with 90.05, 73.82, and 88.48% accuracy for the auditory, visual, and motor networks, respectively. Our findings suggest that BN models can be used to investigate the normal aging process with reliable statistical power. Moreover, these differences in structural inter-regional interactions may help elucidate the neuronal mechanism of anatomical changes in normal aging.

Prophylaxis of cervical cancer and related cervical disease: a review of the cost-effectiveness of vaccination against oncogenic HPV types.

PubMed

Armstrong, Edward P

2010-04-01

Vaccines have demonstrated cost-effectiveness in managed care through the prevention of disease. As new vaccines for previously untargeted conditions are developed, pharmacoeconomic modeling is becoming even more critical for the quantification of value in the health care industry. Two recently developed vaccines aimed at prevention of infection from human papillomavirus (HPV) types 16 and 18 have proven to be highly efficacious. HPV 16 and 18 are the 2 most common oncogenic strains of HPV and are responsible for 70% of cervical cancer cases worldwide. Persistent infection with an oncogenic HPV type is a known cause of cervical cancer. Therefore, prevention of cervical cancer via HPV vaccination may have a significant financial impact. To qualitatively review existing mathematical models of the cost effectiveness of prophylactic HPV vaccination, with an emphasis on the impact on managed care in the United States. Mathematical models of the cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccination based on U.S. data were reviewed. A search of the PubMed database was conducted using the search terms "HPV," "vaccine," and "cost-effectiveness" for articles published before February 22, 2010. Studies employing mathematical models to estimate the cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccination in healthy subjects from the United States were included. Models based on data or populations from outside of the United States were excluded. Outcomes were measured with incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs), typically in units of quality-adjusted life expectancy (quality-adjusted life years [QALYs] gained). Most studies included in this review modeled vaccination of a cohort or population of females aged 12 years. Assessment of catch-up vaccination in females (through aged 24 to 26 years) was included in a couple of reports. One study examined vaccination in older females (aged 35, 40, and 45 years). Models typically compared a strategy of HPV vaccination with the current practice of cervical screening (sampling of cervical cells for disease detection) alone. 11 studies of cost-effectiveness modeling of HPV vaccination were included in this review. A direct quantitative comparison of model results is challenging due to the utilization of different model types as well as differences in variables selected within the same model type. Each model produced a range of cost-effectiveness ratios, dependent on variables included in sensitivity analyses and model assumptions. Sensitivity analyses revealed the lowest ICER to be $997 per QALY gained and the highest ICER to be $12,749,000 per QALY gained. This enormous range highlights the need to clarify what model assumptions are being made. The 2 studies that included modeling of catch-up vaccination scenarios in females older than age 12 years also produced a wide range of ICERs. One study, assuming 90% efficacy, 100% coverage, and lifelong immunity, modeled catch-up vaccination in all females aged 12 to 24 years and yielded an ICER of $4,666 per QALY. If the duration of protection was limited to 10 years, then costs increased to $21,121 per QALY. The other study modeling catch-up HPV vaccination assumed 100% efficacy, 75% coverage, and lifelong immunity. ICERs in this study for outcomes relating to cervical cancer ranged from $43,600 per QALY in the base model vaccinating only 12 year olds with no catch-up vaccination, to $152,700 in a model including catch-up vaccination through age 26 years. Although catch-up to age 21 years resulted in a cost of $120,400 per QALY, the ICER decreased to $101,300 per QALY if model outcomes related to prevention of genital warts were also included. The lone study modeling vaccination in women aged 35 to 45 years resulted in an ICER range of $116,950 to $272,350 per QALY when compared with annual and biennial cytological screening. Cost-effectiveness was defined as an ICER at or below $100,000 per QALY gained. All models of female adolescent vaccination were able to produce vaccination strategies that would be cost-effective according to this definition in addition to many strategies that would be cost-prohibitive. Variables influential in determining cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccination included the frequency of accompanying cervical screening, the age at which screening is initiated, vaccination efficacy, duration of vaccine protection, and the age range of females to be vaccinated. The actual effectiveness of HPV vaccination in the female population will also depend on levels of vaccine uptake or coverage and compliance in completing all vaccine doses. Clinical studies have shown HPV vaccination to be highly efficacious and potentially lifesaving if administered to females naive or unexposed to vaccine HPV types. Modeling studies have also shown that HPV vaccination can be cost-effective with an ICER of $100,000 or less per QALY gained if administered to females aged 12 years in the context of cervical screening intervals typically greater than 1 year. Catch-up vaccination through 21 years of age increases the cost per QALY to more than $100,000. Until real-world coverage rates increase, cost-effectiveness modeling of HPV vaccination underestimates the actual cost per QALY.

Knowledge Restructuring in Biology: Testing a Punctuated Model of Conceptual Change

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mintzes, Joel; Quinn, Heather J.

2007-01-01

Emerging from a human constructivist view of learning and a punctuated model of conceptual change, these studies explored differences in the structural complexity and content validity of knowledge about prehistoric life depicted in concept maps by learners ranging in age from approximately 10 to 20 years. Study 1 (cross-age) explored the…

Genetic evaluation and selection response for growth in meat-type quail through random regression models using B-spline functions and Legendre polynomials.

PubMed

Mota, L F M; Martins, P G M A; Littiere, T O; Abreu, L R A; Silva, M A; Bonafé, C M

2018-04-01

The objective was to estimate (co)variance functions using random regression models (RRM) with Legendre polynomials, B-spline function and multi-trait models aimed at evaluating genetic parameters of growth traits in meat-type quail. A database containing the complete pedigree information of 7000 meat-type quail was utilized. The models included the fixed effects of contemporary group and generation. Direct additive genetic and permanent environmental effects, considered as random, were modeled using B-spline functions considering quadratic and cubic polynomials for each individual segment, and Legendre polynomials for age. Residual variances were grouped in four age classes. Direct additive genetic and permanent environmental effects were modeled using 2 to 4 segments and were modeled by Legendre polynomial with orders of fit ranging from 2 to 4. The model with quadratic B-spline adjustment, using four segments for direct additive genetic and permanent environmental effects, was the most appropriate and parsimonious to describe the covariance structure of the data. The RRM using Legendre polynomials presented an underestimation of the residual variance. Lesser heritability estimates were observed for multi-trait models in comparison with RRM for the evaluated ages. In general, the genetic correlations between measures of BW from hatching to 35 days of age decreased as the range between the evaluated ages increased. Genetic trend for BW was positive and significant along the selection generations. The genetic response to selection for BW in the evaluated ages presented greater values for RRM compared with multi-trait models. In summary, RRM using B-spline functions with four residual variance classes and segments were the best fit for genetic evaluation of growth traits in meat-type quail. In conclusion, RRM should be considered in genetic evaluation of breeding programs.

Genetic parameters for growth characteristics of free-range chickens under univariate random regression models.

PubMed

Rovadoscki, Gregori A; Petrini, Juliana; Ramirez-Diaz, Johanna; Pertile, Simone F N; Pertille, Fábio; Salvian, Mayara; Iung, Laiza H S; Rodriguez, Mary Ana P; Zampar, Aline; Gaya, Leila G; Carvalho, Rachel S B; Coelho, Antonio A D; Savino, Vicente J M; Coutinho, Luiz L; Mourão, Gerson B

2016-09-01

Repeated measures from the same individual have been analyzed by using repeatability and finite dimension models under univariate or multivariate analyses. However, in the last decade, the use of random regression models for genetic studies with longitudinal data have become more common. Thus, the aim of this research was to estimate genetic parameters for body weight of four experimental chicken lines by using univariate random regression models. Body weight data from hatching to 84 days of age (n = 34,730) from four experimental free-range chicken lines (7P, Caipirão da ESALQ, Caipirinha da ESALQ and Carijó Barbado) were used. The analysis model included the fixed effects of contemporary group (gender and rearing system), fixed regression coefficients for age at measurement, and random regression coefficients for permanent environmental effects and additive genetic effects. Heterogeneous variances for residual effects were considered, and one residual variance was assigned for each of six subclasses of age at measurement. Random regression curves were modeled by using Legendre polynomials of the second and third orders, with the best model chosen based on the Akaike Information Criterion, Bayesian Information Criterion, and restricted maximum likelihood. Multivariate analyses under the same animal mixed model were also performed for the validation of the random regression models. The Legendre polynomials of second order were better for describing the growth curves of the lines studied. Moderate to high heritabilities (h(2) = 0.15 to 0.98) were estimated for body weight between one and 84 days of age, suggesting that selection for body weight at all ages can be used as a selection criteria. Genetic correlations among body weight records obtained through multivariate analyses ranged from 0.18 to 0.96, 0.12 to 0.89, 0.06 to 0.96, and 0.28 to 0.96 in 7P, Caipirão da ESALQ, Caipirinha da ESALQ, and Carijó Barbado chicken lines, respectively. Results indicate that genetic gain for body weight can be achieved by selection. Also, selection for body weight at 42 days of age can be maintained as a selection criterion. © 2016 Poultry Science Association Inc.

Repair rather than segregation of damage is the optimal unicellular aging strategy.

PubMed

Clegg, Robert J; Dyson, Rosemary J; Kreft, Jan-Ulrich

2014-08-16

How aging, being unfavourable for the individual, can evolve is one of the fundamental problems of biology. Evidence for aging in unicellular organisms is far from conclusive. Some studies found aging even in symmetrically dividing unicellular species; others did not find aging in the same, or in different, unicellular species, or only under stress. Mathematical models suggested that segregation of non-genetic damage, as an aging strategy, would increase fitness. However, these models failed to consider repair as an alternative strategy or did not properly account for the benefits of repair. We used a new and improved individual-based model to examine rigorously the effect of a range of aging strategies on fitness in various environments. Repair of damage emerges as the best strategy despite its fitness costs, since it immediately increases growth rate. There is an optimal investment in repair that outperforms damage segregation in well-mixed, lasting and benign environments over a wide range of parameter values. Damage segregation becomes beneficial, and only in combination with repair, when three factors are combined: (i) the rate of damage accumulation is high, (ii) damage is toxic and (iii) efficiency of repair is low. In contrast to previous models, our model predicts that unicellular organisms should have active mechanisms to repair damage rather than age by segregating damage. Indeed, as predicted, all organisms have evolved active mechanisms of repair whilst aging in unicellular organisms is absent or minimal under benign conditions, apart from microorganisms with a different ecology, inhabiting short-lived environments strongly favouring early reproduction rather than longevity. Aging confers no fitness advantage for unicellular organisms in lasting environments under benign conditions, since repair of non-genetic damage is better than damage segregation.

From K giants to G dwarfs: stellar lifetime effects on metallicity distributions derived from red giants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manning, Ellen M.; Cole, Andrew A.

2017-11-01

We examine the biases inherent to chemical abundance distributions when targets are selected from the red giant branch (RGB), using simulated giant branches created from isochrones. We find that even when stars are chosen from the entire colour range of RGB stars and over a broad range of magnitudes, the relative numbers of stars of different ages and metallicities, integrated over all stellar types, are not accurately represented in the giant branch sample. The result is that metallicity distribution functions derived from RGB star samples require a correction before they can be fitted by chemical evolution models. We derive simple correction factors for over- and under-represented populations for the limiting cases of single-age populations with a broad range of metallicities and of continuous star formation at constant metallicity; an important general conclusion is that intermediate-age populations (≈1-4 Gyr) are over-represented in RGB samples. We apply our models to the case of the Large Magellanic Cloud bar and show that the observed metallicity distribution underestimates the true number of metal-poor stars by more than 25 per cent; as a result, the inferred importance of gas flows in chemical evolution models could potentially be overestimated. The age- and metallicity-dependences of RGB lifetimes require careful modelling if they are not to lead to spurious conclusions about the chemical enrichment history of galaxies.

Statistical Models for Predicting Automobile Driving Postures for Men and Women Including Effects of Age.

PubMed

Park, Jangwoon; Ebert, Sheila M; Reed, Matthew P; Hallman, Jason J

2016-03-01

Previously published statistical models of driving posture have been effective for vehicle design but have not taken into account the effects of age. The present study developed new statistical models for predicting driving posture. Driving postures of 90 U.S. drivers with a wide range of age and body size were measured in laboratory mockup in nine package conditions. Posture-prediction models for female and male drivers were separately developed by employing a stepwise regression technique using age, body dimensions, vehicle package conditions, and two-way interactions, among other variables. Driving posture was significantly associated with age, and the effects of other variables depended on age. A set of posture-prediction models is presented for women and men. The results are compared with a previously developed model. The present study is the first study of driver posture to include a large cohort of older drivers and the first to report a significant effect of age. The posture-prediction models can be used to position computational human models or crash-test dummies for vehicle design and assessment. © 2015, Human Factors and Ergonomics Society.

The Hierarchical Factor Model of ADHD: Invariant across Age and National Groupings?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Toplak, Maggie E.; Sorge, Geoff B.; Flora, David B.; Chen, Wai; Banaschewski, Tobias; Buitelaar, Jan; Ebstein, Richard; Eisenberg, Jacques; Franke, Barbara; Gill, Michael; Miranda, Ana; Oades, Robert D.; Roeyers, Herbert; Rothenberger, Aribert; Sergeant, Joseph; Sonuga-Barke, Edmund; Steinhausen, Hans-Christoph; Thompson, Margaret; Tannock, Rosemary; Asherson, Philip; Faraone, Stephen V.

2012-01-01

Objective: To examine the factor structure of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) in a clinical sample of 1,373 children and adolescents with ADHD and their 1,772 unselected siblings recruited from different countries across a large age range. Hierarchical and correlated factor analytic models were compared separately in the ADHD and…

Testing fault growth models with low-temperature thermochronology in the northwest Basin and Range, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Curry, Magdalena A. E.; Barnes, Jason B.; Colgan, Joseph P.

2016-01-01

Common fault growth models diverge in predicting how faults accumulate displacement and lengthen through time. A paucity of field-based data documenting the lateral component of fault growth hinders our ability to test these models and fully understand how natural fault systems evolve. Here we outline a framework for using apatite (U-Th)/He thermochronology (AHe) to quantify the along-strike growth of faults. To test our framework, we first use a transect in the normal fault-bounded Jackson Mountains in the Nevada Basin and Range Province, then apply the new framework to the adjacent Pine Forest Range. We combine new and existing cross sections with 18 new and 16 existing AHe cooling ages to determine the spatiotemporal variability in footwall exhumation and evaluate models for fault growth. Three age-elevation transects in the Pine Forest Range show that rapid exhumation began along the range-front fault between approximately 15 and 11 Ma at rates of 0.2–0.4 km/Myr, ultimately exhuming approximately 1.5–5 km. The ages of rapid exhumation identified at each transect lie within data uncertainty, indicating concomitant onset of faulting along strike. We show that even in the case of growth by fault-segment linkage, the fault would achieve its modern length within 3–4 Myr of onset. Comparison with the Jackson Mountains highlights the inadequacies of spatially limited sampling. A constant fault-length growth model is the best explanation for our thermochronology results. We advocate that low-temperature thermochronology can be further utilized to better understand and quantify fault growth with broader implications for seismic hazard assessments and the coevolution of faulting and topography.

Sensitivity of Age-of-Air Calculations to the Choice of Advection Scheme

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Eluszkiewicz, Janusz; Hemler, Richard S.; Mahlman, Jerry D.; Bruhwiler, Lori; Takacs, Lawrence L.

2000-01-01

The age of air has recently emerged as a diagnostic of atmospheric transport unaffected by chemical parameterizations, and the features in the age distributions computed in models have been interpreted in terms of the models' large-scale circulation field. This study shows, however, that in addition to the simulated large-scale circulation, three-dimensional age calculations can also be affected by the choice of advection scheme employed in solving the tracer continuity equation, Specifically, using the 3.0deg latitude X 3.6deg longitude and 40 vertical level version of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory SKYHI GCM and six online transport schemes ranging from Eulerian through semi-Lagrangian to fully Lagrangian, it will be demonstrated that the oldest ages are obtained using the nondiffusive centered-difference schemes while the youngest ages are computed with a semi-Lagrangian transport (SLT) scheme. The centered- difference schemes are capable of producing ages older than 10 years in the mesosphere, thus eliminating the "young bias" found in previous age-of-air calculations. At this stage, only limited intuitive explanations can be advanced for this sensitivity of age-of-air calculations to the choice of advection scheme, In particular, age distributions computed online with the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate Model (MACCM3) using different varieties of the SLT scheme are substantially older than the SKYHI SLT distribution. The different varieties, including a noninterpolating-in-the-vertical version (which is essentially centered-difference in the vertical), also produce a narrower range of age distributions than the suite of advection schemes employed in the SKYHI model. While additional MACCM3 experiments with a wider range of schemes would be necessary to provide more definitive insights, the older and less variable MACCM3 age distributions can plausibly be interpreted as being due to the semi-implicit semi-Lagrangian dynamics employed in the MACCM3. This type of dynamical core (employed with a 60-min time step) is likely to reduce SLT's interpolation errors that are compounded by the short-term variability characteristic of the explicit centered-difference dynamics employed in the SKYHI model (time step of 3 min). In the extreme case of a very slowly varying circulation, the choice of advection scheme has no effect on two-dimensional (latitude-height) age-of-air calculations, owing to the smooth nature of the transport circulation in 2D models. These results suggest that nondiffusive schemes may be the preferred choice for multiyear simulations of tracers not overly sensitive to the requirement of monotonicity (this category includes many greenhouse gases). At the same time, age-of-air calculations offer a simple quantitative diagnostic of a scheme's long-term diffusive properties and may help in the evaluation of dynamical cores in multiyear integrations. On the other hand, the sensitivity of the computed ages to the model numerics calls for caution in using age of air as a diagnostic of a GCM's large-scale circulation field.

Age, growth and fall diet of channel catfish in Cheat Lake, West Virginia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hilling, Corbin D.; Welsh, Stuart A.; Smith, Dustin M.

2016-01-01

Acidification has historically impaired Cheat Lake's fish community, but recent mitigation efforts within the Cheat River watershed have improved water quality and species richness. Presently, channel catfish Ictalurus punctatus are abundant and attain desirable sizes for anglers. We evaluated the age, growth, and fall diet of the population. We collected a sample of 155 channel catfish from Cheat Lake from 5 August to 4 December 2014, a subset of which we aged (n = 148) using lapillus otoliths. We fit four growth models (von Bertalanffy, logistic, Gompertz, and power) to length-at-age data and compared models using an information theoretic approach. We collected fall diets from 55 fish sampled from 13 October to 4 December 2014. Total lengths of individuals in the sample ranged from 154 to 721 mm and ages ranged from 2 to 19 y. We AICc-selected the von Bertalanffy growth model as the best approximating model, and the power and Gompertz models also had considerable support. Diets were numerically dominated by Diptera larvae, specifically Chironomidae and Chaoboridae, while 39% of stomachs contained terrestrial food items. This study provides baseline data for management of Cheat Lake's channel catfish population. Further, this study fills a knowledge gap in the scientific literature on channel catfish, because few previously published studies have examined the population ecology of channel catfish in the Central Appalachian region.

An evaluation of three growth and yield simulators for even-aged hardwood forests of the mid-Appalachian region

Treesearch

John R. Brooks; Gary W. Miller

2011-01-01

Data from even-aged hardwood stands in four ecoregions across the mid-Appalachian region were used to test projection accuracy for three available growth and yield software systems: SILVAH, the Forest Vegetation Simulator, and the Stand Damage Model. Average root mean squared error (RMSE) ranged from 20 to 140 percent of actual trees per acre while RMSE ranged from 2...

Overgeneral autobiographical memory in healthy young and older adults: Differential age effects on components of the capture and rumination, functional avoidance, and impaired executive control (CaRFAX) model.

PubMed

Ros, Laura; Latorre, Jose M; Serrano, Juan P; Ricarte, Jorge J

2017-08-01

The CaRFAX model (Williams et al., 2007) has been used to explain the causes of overgeneral autobiographical memory (OGM; the difficulty to retrieve specific autobiographical memories), a cognitive phenomenon generally related with different psychopathologies. This model proposes 3 different mechanisms to explain OGM: capture and rumination (CaR), functional avoidance (FA) and impaired executive functions (X). However, the complete CaRFAX model has not been tested in nonclinical populations. This study aims to assess the usefulness of the CaRFAX model to explain OGM in 2 healthy samples: a young sample and an older sample, to test for possible age-related differences in the underlying causes of OGM. A total of 175 young (age range: 19-36 years) and 175 older (age range: 53-88 years) participants completed measures of brooding rumination (CaR), functional avoidance (FA), and executive tasks (X). Using structural equation modeling, we found that memory specificity is mainly associated with lower functional avoidance and higher executive functions in the older group, but only with executive functions in young participants. We discuss the different roles of emotional regulation strategies used by young and older people and their relation to the CaRFAX model to explain OGM in healthy people. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Extremes of fractional noises: A model for the timings of arrhythmic heart beats in post-infarction patients

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Witt, Annette; Ehlers, Frithjof; Luther, Stefan

2017-09-01

We have analyzed symbol sequences of heart beat annotations obtained from 24-h electrocardiogram recordings of 184 post-infarction patients (from the Cardiac Arrhythmia Suppression Trial database, CAST). In the symbol sequences, each heart beat was coded as an arrhythmic or as a normal beat. The symbol sequences were analyzed with a model-based approach which relies on two-parametric peaks over the threshold (POT) model, interpreting each premature ventricular contraction (PVC) as an extreme event. For the POT model, we explored (i) the Shannon entropy which was estimated in terms of the Lempel-Ziv complexity, (ii) the shape parameter of the Weibull distribution that best fits the PVC return times, and (iii) the strength of long-range correlations quantified by detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) for the two-dimensional parameter space. We have found that in the frame of our model the Lempel-Ziv complexity is functionally related to the shape parameter of the Weibull distribution. Thus, two complementary measures (entropy and strength of long-range correlations) are sufficient to characterize realizations of the two-parametric model. For the CAST data, we have found evidence for an intermediate strength of long-range correlations in the PVC timings, which are correlated to the age of the patient: younger post-infarction patients have higher strength of long-range correlations than older patients. The normalized Shannon entropy has values in the range 0.5

Early Math Trajectories: Low-Income Children's Mathematics Knowledge from Ages 4 to 11

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rittle-Johnson, Bethany; Fyfe, Emily R.; Hofer, Kerry G.; Farran, Dale C.

2017-01-01

Early mathematics knowledge is a strong predictor of later academic achievement, but children from low-income families enter school with weak mathematics knowledge. An early math trajectories model is proposed and evaluated within a longitudinal study of 517 low-income American children from ages 4 to 11. This model includes a broad range of math…

Early Math Trajectories: Low-Income Children's Mathematics Knowledge from Age 4 to 11

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rittle-Johnson, Bethany; Fyfe, Emily R.; Hofer, Kerry G.; Farran, Dale C.

2016-01-01

Early mathematics knowledge is a strong predictor of later academic achievement, but children from low-income families enter school with weak mathematics knowledge. An Early Math Trajectories model is proposed and evaluated within a longitudinal study of 517 low-income American children from age 4 to 11. This model includes a broad range of math…

Numerical simulation of artificial hip joint motion based on human age factor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramdhani, Safarudin; Saputra, Eko; Jamari, J.

2018-05-01

Artificial hip joint is a prosthesis (synthetic body part) which usually consists of two or more components. Replacement of the hip joint due to the occurrence of arthritis, ordinarily patients aged or older. Numerical simulation models are used to observe the range of motion in the artificial hip joint, the range of motion of joints used as the basis of human age. Finite- element analysis (FEA) is used to calculate stress von mises in motion and observes a probability of prosthetic impingement. FEA uses a three-dimensional nonlinear model and considers the position variation of acetabular liner cups. The result of numerical simulation shows that FEA method can be used to analyze the performance calculation of the artificial hip joint at this time more accurate than conventional method.

Ages of LMC star clusters using ASAD2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asa'd, Randa S.; Vazdekis, Alexandre; Zeinelabdin, Sami

2016-04-01

We use ASAD2, the new version of ASAD (Analyzer of Spectra for Age Determination), to obtain the age and reddening of 27 Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) clusters from full fitting of integrated spectra using different statistical methods [χ2 and Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) test] and a set of stellar population models including GALAXEV and MILES. We show that our results are in good agreement with the colour-magnitude diagram (CMD) ages for both models, and that metallicity does not affect the age determination for the full spectrum fitting method regardless of the model used for ages with log (age/year) < 9. We discuss the results obtained by the two statistical results for both GALAXEV and MILES versus three factors: age, signal-to-noise ratio and resolution (full width at half maximum). The predicted reddening values when using the χ2 minimization method are within the range found in the literature for resolved clusters (I.e. <0.35); however the KS test can predict E(B - V) higher values. The sharp spectrum transition originated at ages around the supergiants contribution, at either side of the AGB peak around log (age/year) 9.0 and log (age/year) 7.8 are limiting our ability to provide values in agreement with the CMD estimates and as a result the reddening determination is not accurate. We provide the detailed results of four clusters spanning a wide range of ages. ASAD2 is a user-friendly program available for download on the Web and can be immediately used at http://randaasad.wordpress.com/asad-package/.

Age and gender specific biokinetic model for strontium in humans

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shagina, N. B.; Tolstykh, E. I.; Degteva, M. O.

A biokinetic model for strontium in humans is necessary for quantification of internal doses due to strontium radioisotopes. The ICRP-recommended biokinetic model for strontium has limitation for use in a population study, because it is not gender specific and does not cover all age ranges. The extensive Techa River data set on 90Sr in humans (tens of thousands of measurements) is a unique source of data on long-term strontium retention for men and women of all ages at intake. These, as well as published data, were used for evaluation of age- and gender-specific parameters for a new compartment biokinetic modelmore » for strontium (Sr-AGe model). The Sr-AGe model has similar structure as the ICRP model for the alkaline earth elements. The following parameters were mainly reevaluated: gastro-intestinal absorption and parameters related to the processes of bone formation and resorption defining calcium and strontium transfers in skeletal compartments. The Sr-AGe model satisfactorily describes available data sets on strontium retention for different kinds of intake (dietary and intravenous) at different ages (0–80 years old) and demonstrates good agreement with data sets for different ethnic groups. The Sr-AGe model can be used for dose assessment in epidemiological studies of general population exposed to ingested strontium radioisotopes.« less

Absolute Ages and Distances of 22 GCs Using Monte Carlo Main-sequence Fitting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Malley, Erin M.; Gilligan, Christina; Chaboyer, Brian

2017-04-01

The recent Gaia Data Release 1 of stellar parallaxes provides ample opportunity to find metal-poor main-sequence stars with precise parallaxes. We select 21 such stars with parallax uncertainties better than σ π /π ≤ 0.10 and accurate abundance determinations suitable for testing metal-poor stellar evolution models and determining the distance to Galactic globular clusters (GCs). A Monte Carlo analysis was used, taking into account uncertainties in the model construction parameters, to generate stellar models and isochrones to fit to the calibration stars. The isochrones that fit the calibration stars best were then used to determine the distances and ages of 22 GCs with metallicities ranging from -2.4 dex to -0.7 dex. We find distances with an average uncertainty of 0.15 mag and absolute ages ranging from 10.8 to 13.6 Gyr with an average uncertainty of 1.6 Gyr. Using literature proper motion data, we calculate orbits for the clusters, finding six that reside within the Galactic disk/bulge, while the rest are considered halo clusters. We find no strong evidence for a relationship between age and Galactocentric distance, but we do find a decreasing age-[Fe/H] relation.

A Simple Method for Estimating the Economic Cost of Productivity Loss Due to Blindness and Moderate to Severe Visual Impairment.

PubMed

Eckert, Kristen A; Carter, Marissa J; Lansingh, Van C; Wilson, David A; Furtado, João M; Frick, Kevin D; Resnikoff, Serge

2015-01-01

To estimate the annual loss of productivity from blindness and moderate to severe visual impairment (MSVI) using simple models (analogous to how a rapid assessment model relates to a comprehensive model) based on minimum wage (MW) and gross national income (GNI) per capita (US$, 2011). Cost of blindness (COB) was calculated for the age group ≥50 years in nine sample countries by assuming the loss of current MW and loss of GNI per capita. It was assumed that all individuals work until 65 years old and that half of visual impairment prevalent in the ≥50 years age group is prevalent in the 50-64 years age group. For cost of MSVI (COMSVI), individual wage and GNI loss of 30% was assumed. Results were compared with the values of the uncorrected refractive error (URE) model of productivity loss. COB (MW method) ranged from $0.1 billion in Honduras to $2.5 billion in the United States, and COMSVI ranged from $0.1 billion in Honduras to $5.3 billion in the US. COB (GNI method) ranged from $0.1 million in Honduras to $7.8 billion in the US, and COMSVI ranged from $0.1 billion in Honduras to $16.5 billion in the US. Most GNI method values were near equivalent to those of the URE model. Although most people with blindness and MSVI live in developing countries, the highest productivity losses are in high income countries. The global economy could improve if eye care were made more accessible and more affordable to all.

Stratigraphy in the Samarkand Sulci Region of Enceladus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roatsch, T.; Wagner, R. J.; Schmedemann, N.; Helfenstein, P.; Stephan, K.; Voigt, J.; Jaumann, R.; Giese, B.; Porco, C.

2016-12-01

Saturn's cryovolcanically active moon Enceladus is a primary target for NASA's Cassini Saturn orbiter. In a flyby on Dec. 19, 2015 (orbit 228EN), images with 65 m spatial resolution were taken from the Samarkand Sulci and Anbar Fossae [1] region with the Cassini ISS NAC camera. This study area was geologically mapped, based on the geological context by [2]. Crater counts for age dating were carried out and compared to our previous counts done in a global mosaic at lower resolution [3]. A stereo-derived digital elevation model reveals intense tectonic faulting causing a remarkable height range of up to 1750 meters with respect to the surrounding cratered plains [4]. Relative ages of geologic units can be inferred from mutual crosscutting and/or superposition, but ages from craters counts are comparably uncertain due to low crater frequencies and small areas of measurement. Tectonic features of the study area cut through older densely cratered plains with model ages ranging from 3.9 Gyr to only 500 Ma, depending of impact chronology model [5, and ref's therein] applied to crater frequency measurements. In the units characterized by intense tectonism, larger craters like those found in the cratered plains in parts have survived but smaller much less frequent craters reflect the age of tectonic resurfacing, with model ages ranging from 1.5 Gyr to 15 Myr. Geologic units which show putative small craters (number < 3) at the given resolution have considerably low estimated (maximum) ages on the order of << 10 Myr suggesting intense tectonism has been taking place in the recent past. References: [1] Roatsch, T., et al. (2013), Planet. Space Sci. 77, 118-125. [2] Crow-Willard, E. N., and Pappalardo, R. T. (2015), JGR 120, doi:10.1002/2015JE004818. [3] Jaumann R., et al. (2011), EPSC Abstracts Vol. 6, abstr. No. EPSC-DPS2011-435-1. [4] Giese B., et al. (2016), paper in preparation. [5] Dones, L., et al. (2009), In: Saturn from Cassini-Huygens, Springer Publ., pp. 613-635.

Assessing age-dependent susceptibility to measles in Japan.

PubMed

Kinoshita, Ryo; Nishiura, Hiroshi

2017-06-05

Routine vaccination against measles in Japan started in 1978. Whereas measles elimination was verified in 2015, multiple chains of measles transmission were observed in 2016. We aimed to reconstruct the age-dependent susceptibility to measles in Japan so that future vaccination strategies can be elucidated. An epidemiological model was used to quantify the age-dependent immune fraction using datasets of vaccination coverage and seroepidemiological survey. The second dose was interpreted in two different scenarios, i.e., booster and random shots. The effective reproduction number, the average number of secondary cases generated by a single infected individual, and the age at infection were explored using the age-dependent transmission model and the next generation matrix. While the herd immunity threshold of measles likely ranges from 90% to 95%, assuming that the basic reproductive number ranges from 10 to 20, the estimated immune fraction in Japan was below those thresholds in 2016, despite the fact that the estimates were above 80% for all ages. If the second dose completely acted as the booster shot, a proportion immune above 90% was achieved only among those aged 5years or below in 2016. Alternatively, if the second dose was randomly distributed regardless of primary vaccination status, a proportion immune over 90% was achieved among those aged below 25years. The effective reproduction number was estimated to range from 1.50 to 3.01 and from 1.50 to 3.00, respectively, for scenarios 1 and 2 in 2016; if the current vaccination schedule were continued, the reproduction number is projected to range from 1.50 to 3.01 and 1.39 to 2.78, respectively, in 2025. Japan continues to be prone to imported cases of measles. Supplementary vaccination among adults aged 20-49years would be effective if the chains of transmission continue to be observed in that age group. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Analysis of transpacific transport of black carbon during HIPPO-3: implications for black carbon aging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, Z.; Liu, J.; Horowitz, L. W.; Henze, D. K.; Fan, S.; Levy, H., II; Mauzerall, D. L.; Lin, J.-T.; Tao, S.

2014-06-01

Long-range transport of black carbon (BC) is a growing concern as a result of the efficiency of BC in warming the climate and its adverse impact on human health. We study transpacific transport of BC during HIPPO-3 using a combination of inverse modeling and sensitivity analysis. We use the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model and its adjoint to constrain Asian BC emissions and estimate the source of BC over the North Pacific. We find that different sources of BC dominate the transport to the North Pacific during the southbound (29 March 2010) and northbound (13 April 2010) measurements in HIPPO-3. While biomass burning in Southeast Asia (SE) contributes about 60% of BC in March, more than 90% of BC comes from fossil fuel and biofuel combustion in East Asia (EA) during the April mission. GEOS-Chem simulations generally resolve the spatial and temporal variation of BC concentrations over the North Pacific, but are unable to reproduce the low and high tails of the observed BC distribution. We find that the optimized BC emissions derived from inverse modeling fail to improve model simulations significantly. This failure indicates that uncertainties in BC removal as well as transport, rather than in emissions, account for the major biases in GEOS-Chem simulations of BC over the North Pacific. The aging process, transforming BC from hydrophobic into hydrophilic form, is one of the key factors controlling wet scavenging and remote concentrations of BC. Sensitivity tests on BC aging (ignoring uncertainties of other factors controlling BC long range transport) suggest that in order to fit HIPPO-3 observations, the aging timescale of anthropogenic BC from EA may be several hours (faster than assumed in most global models), while the aging process of biomass burning BC from SE may occur much slower, with a timescale of a few days. To evaluate the effects of BC aging and wet deposition on transpacific transport of BC, we develop an idealized model of BC transport. We find that the mid-latitude air masses sampled during HIPPO-3 may have experienced a series of precipitation events, particularly near the EA and SE source region. Transpacific transport of BC is sensitive to BC aging when the aging rate is fast; this sensitivity peaks when the aging timescale is in the range of 1-1.5 d. Our findings indicate that BC aging close to the source must be simulated accurately at a process level in order to simulate better the global abundance and climate forcing of BC.

Calibration of amino acid racemization (AAR) kinetics in United States mid-Atlantic Coastal Plain Quaternary mollusks using 87Sr/ 86Sr analyses: Evaluation of kinetic models and estimation of regional Late Pleistocene temperature history

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wehmiller, J.F.; Harris, W.B.; Boutin, B.S.; Farrell, K.M.

2012-01-01

The use of amino acid racemization (AAR) for estimating ages of Quaternary fossils usually requires a combination of kinetic and effective temperature modeling or independent age calibration of analyzed samples. Because of limited availability of calibration samples, age estimates are often based on model extrapolations from single calibration points over wide ranges of D/L values. Here we present paired AAR and 87Sr/ 86Sr results for Pleistocene mollusks from the North Carolina Coastal Plain, USA. 87Sr/ 86Sr age estimates, derived from the lookup table of McArthur et al. [McArthur, J.M., Howarth, R.J., Bailey, T.R., 2001. Strontium isotopic stratigraphy: LOWESS version 3: best fit to the marine Sr-isotopic curve for 0-509 Ma and accompanying Look-up table for deriving numerical age. Journal of Geology 109, 155-169], provide independent age calibration over the full range of amino acid D/L values, thereby allowing comparisons of alternative kinetic models for seven amino acids. The often-used parabolic kinetic model is found to be insufficient to explain the pattern of racemization, although the kinetic pathways for valine racemization and isoleucine epimerization can be closely approximated with this function. Logarithmic and power law regressions more accurately represent the racemization pathways for all amino acids. The reliability of a non-linear model for leucine racemization, developed and refined over the past 20 years, is confirmed by the 87Sr/ 86Sr age results. This age model indicates that the subsurface record (up to 80m thick) of the North Carolina Coastal Plain spans the entire Quaternary, back to ???2.5Ma. The calibrated kinetics derived from this age model yield an estimate of the effective temperature for the study region of 11??2??C., from which we estimate full glacial (Last Glacial Maximum - LGM) temperatures for the region on the order of 7-10??C cooler than present. These temperatures compare favorably with independent paleoclimate information for the region. ?? 2011 Elsevier B.V.

Individual tree height increment model for managed even-aged stands of ponderosa pine throughout the western United States using linear mixed effects models

Treesearch

Fabian Uzoh; William W. Oliver

2006-01-01

A height increment model is developed and evaluated for individual trees of ponderosa pine throughout the species range in western United States. The data set used in this study came from long-term permanent research plots in even-aged, pure stands both planted and of natural origin. The data base consists of six levels-of-growing stock studies supplemented by initial...

From Parasite Encounter to Infection: Multiple-Scale Drivers of Parasite Richness in a Wild Social Primate Population

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Benavides J. A.; Huchard, E.; Pettorelli, N.; King, A. J.; Brown, M. E.; Archer, C. E.; Appleton, C. C.; Raymond, M.; Cowlishaw, G.

2011-01-01

Host parasite diversity plays a fundamental role in ecological and evolutionary processes, yet the factors that drive it are still poorly understood. A variety of processes, operating across a range of spatial scales, are likely to influence both the probability of parasite encounter and subsequent infection. Here, we explored eight possible determinants of parasite richness, comprising rainfall and temperature at the population level, ranging behavior and home range productivity at the group level, and age, sex, body condition, and social rank at the individual level. We used a unique dataset describing gastrointestinal parasites in a terrestrial subtropical vertebrate (chacma baboons, Papio ursinus), comprising 662 faecal samples from 86 individuals representing all age-sex classes across two groups over two dry seasons in a desert population. Three mixed models were used to identify the most important factor at each of the three spatial scales (population, group, individual); these were then standardised and combined in a single, global, mixed model. Individual age had the strongest influence on parasite richness, in a convex relationship. Parasite richness was also higher in females and animals in poor condition, albeit at a lower order of magnitude than age. Finally, with a further halving of effect size, parasite richness was positively correlated to day range and temperature. These findings indicate that a range of factors influence host parasite richness through both encounter and infection probabilities, but that individual-level processes may be more important than those at the group or population level.

FIBER handbook: a growth model for spruce-fir and northern hardwood types

Treesearch

Dale S. Solomon; Richard A. Hosmer; Homer T., Jr. Hayslett; Homer T. Hayslett

1987-01-01

A matrix model, FIBER, has been developed to provide the forest manager with a means of simulating the management and growth of forest stands in the Northeast. Instructional material is presented for the management of even-aged and multi-aged spruce-fir, mixedwood, and northern hardwood stands. FIBER allows the user to simulate a range of silvicultural treatments for a...

Population pharmacokinetics of paracetamol across the human age-range from (pre)term neonates, infants, children to adults.

PubMed

Wang, Chenguang; Allegaert, Karel; Tibboel, Dick; Danhof, Meindert; van der Marel, Caroline D; Mathot, Ron A A; Knibbe, Catherijne A J

2014-06-01

In order to characterize the variation in pharmacokinetics of paracetamol across the human age span, we performed a population pharmacokinetic analysis from preterm neonates to adults with specific focus on clearance. Concentration-time data obtained in 220 neonates (post-natal age 1-76 days, gestational age 27-42 weeks), infants (0.11-1.33 yrs), children (2-7 yrs) and adults (19-34 yrs) were analyzed using NONMEM 7.2. In the covariate analysis, linear functions, power functions, and a power function with a bodyweight-dependent exponent were tested. Between preterm neonates and adults, linear bodyweight functions were identified for Q2, Q3, V1, V2, and V3, while for CL a power function with a bodyweight-dependent exponent k was identified (CLi  = CLp  × (BW/70)(k) ). The exponent k was found to decrease in a sigmoidal manner with bodyweight from 1.2 to 0.75, with half the decrease in exponent reached at 12.2 kg. No other covariates such as age were identified. A pharmacokinetic model for paracetamol characterizing changes in pharmacokinetic parameters across the pediatric age-range was developed. Clearance was found to change in a nonlinear manner with bodyweight. Based on the final model, dosing guidelines are proposed from preterm neonates to adolescents resulting in similar exposure across all age ranges. © 2014, The American College of Clinical Pharmacology.

Nurse practitioners in aged care: documentary analysis of successful project proposals.

PubMed

Clark, Shannon J; Parker, Rhian M; Davey, Rachel

2014-11-01

Meeting the primary health care needs of an aging population is an increasing challenge for many Western nations. In Australia, the federal government introduced a program to develop, test, and evaluate nurse practitioner models in aged care settings. In this article, we present a documentary analysis of 32 project proposals awarded funding under the Nurse Practitioner-Aged Care Models of Practice Program. Successfully funded models were diverse and were operated by a range of organizations across Australia. We identified three key priorities as underlying the proposed models: "The right care," "in the right place," and "at the right time." In this article, we explore how these priorities were presented by different applicants in different ways. Through the presentation of their models, the program's applicants identified and proposed to address current gaps in health services. Applicants contrasted their proposed models with available services to create persuasive and competitive applications for funding. © The Author(s) 2014.

Age-0 Lost River sucker and shortnose sucker nearshore habitat use in Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon: A patch occupancy approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burdick, S.M.; Hendrixson, H.A.; VanderKooi, S.P.

2008-01-01

We examined habitat use by age-0 Lost River suckers Deltistes luxatus and shortnose suckers Chasmistes brevirostris over six substrate classes and in vegetated and nonvegetated areas of Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon. We used a patch occupancy approach to model the effect of physical habitat and water quality conditions on habitat use. Our models accounted for potential inconsistencies in detection probability among sites and sampling occasions as a result of differences in fishing gear types and techniques, habitat characteristics, and age-0 fish size and abundance. Detection probability was greatest during mid- to late summer, when water temperatures were highest and age-0 suckers were the largest. The proportion of sites used by age-0 suckers was inversely related to depth (range = 0.4-3.0 m), particularly during late summer. Age-0 suckers were more likely to use habitats containing small substrate (64 mm) and habitats with vegetation than those without vegetation. Relatively narrow ranges in dissolved oxygen, temperature, and pH prevented us from detecting effects of these water quality features on age-0 sucker nearshore habitat use.

[Automated Assessment for Bone Age of Left Wrist Joint in Uyghur Teenagers by Deep Learning].

PubMed

Hu, T H; Huo, Z; Liu, T A; Wang, F; Wan, L; Wang, M W; Chen, T; Wang, Y H

2018-02-01

To realize the automated bone age assessment by applying deep learning to digital radiography （DR） image recognition of left wrist joint in Uyghur teenagers, and explore its practical application value in forensic medicine bone age assessment. The X-ray films of left wrist joint after pretreatment, which were taken from 245 male and 227 female Uyghur nationality teenagers in Uygur Autonomous Region aged from 13.0 to 19.0 years old, were chosen as subjects. And AlexNet was as a regression model of image recognition. From the total samples above, 60％ of male and female DR images of left wrist joint were selected as net train set, and 10％ of samples were selected as validation set. As test set, the rest 30％ were used to obtain the image recognition accuracy with an error range in ±1.0 and ±0.7 age respectively, compared to the real age. The modelling results of deep learning algorithm showed that when the error range was in ±1.0 and ±0.7 age respectively, the accuracy of the net train set was 81.4% and 75.6% in male, and 80.5% and 74.8% in female, respectively. When the error range was in ±1.0 and ±0.7 age respectively, the accuracy of the test set was 79.5% and 71.2% in male, and 79.4% and 66.2% in female, respectively. The combination of bone age research on teenagers' left wrist joint and deep learning, which has high accuracy and good feasibility, can be the research basis of bone age automatic assessment system for the rest joints of body. Copyright© by the Editorial Department of Journal of Forensic Medicine.

Curcumin and aging

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Curcumin has been used commonly as a spice, food additive, and an herbal medicine worldwide. Known as a bioactive polyphenolic, curcumin has a broad range of beneficial properties to human health. Recently, active research on curcumin with respect to aging and related traits in model organisms has d...

A statistical model including age to predict passenger postures in the rear seats of automobiles.

PubMed

Park, Jangwoon; Ebert, Sheila M; Reed, Matthew P; Hallman, Jason J

2016-06-01

Few statistical models of rear seat passenger posture have been published, and none has taken into account the effects of occupant age. This study developed new statistical models for predicting passenger postures in the rear seats of automobiles. Postures of 89 adults with a wide range of age and body size were measured in a laboratory mock-up in seven seat configurations. Posture-prediction models for female and male passengers were separately developed by stepwise regression using age, body dimensions, seat configurations and two-way interactions as potential predictors. Passenger posture was significantly associated with age and the effects of other two-way interaction variables depended on age. A set of posture-prediction models are presented for women and men, and the prediction results are compared with previously published models. This study is the first study of passenger posture to include a large cohort of older passengers and the first to report a significant effect of age for adults. The presented models can be used to position computational and physical human models for vehicle design and assessment. Practitioner Summary: The significant effects of age, body dimensions and seat configuration on rear seat passenger posture were identified. The models can be used to accurately position computational human models or crash test dummies for older passengers in known rear seat configurations.

A Large Stellar Evolution Database for Population Synthesis Studies. I. Scaled Solar Models and Isochrones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pietrinferni, Adriano; Cassisi, Santi; Salaris, Maurizio; Castelli, Fiorella

2004-09-01

We present a large and updated stellar evolution database for low-, intermediate-, and high-mass stars in a wide metallicity range, suitable for studying Galactic and extragalactic simple and composite stellar populations using population synthesis techniques. The stellar mass range is between ~0.5 and 10 Msolar with a fine mass spacing. The metallicity [Fe/H] comprises 10 values ranging from -2.27 to 0.40, with a scaled solar metal distribution. The initial He mass fraction ranges from Y=0.245, for the more metal-poor composition, up to 0.303 for the more metal-rich one, with ΔY/ΔZ~1.4. For each adopted chemical composition, the evolutionary models have been computed without (canonical models) and with overshooting from the Schwarzschild boundary of the convective cores during the central H-burning phase. Semiconvection is included in the treatment of core convection during the He-burning phase. The whole set of evolutionary models can be used to compute isochrones in a wide age range, from ~30 Myr to ~15 Gyr. Both evolutionary models and isochrones are available in several observational planes, employing an updated set of bolometric corrections and color-Teff relations computed for this project. The number of points along the models and the resulting isochrones is selected in such a way that interpolation for intermediate metallicities not contained in the grid is straightforward; a simple quadratic interpolation produces results of sufficient accuracy for population synthesis applications.We compare our isochrones with results from a series of widely used stellar evolution databases and perform some empirical tests for the reliability of our models. Since this work is devoted to scaled solar chemical compositions, we focus our attention on the Galactic disk stellar populations, employing multicolor photometry of unevolved field main-sequence stars with precise Hipparcos parallaxes, well-studied open clusters, and one eclipsing binary system with precise measurements of masses, radii, and [Fe/H] of both components. We find that the predicted metallicity dependence of the location of the lower, unevolved main sequence in the color magnitude diagram (CMD) appears in satisfactory agreement with empirical data. When comparing our models with CMDs of selected, well-studied, open clusters, once again we were able to properly match the whole observed evolutionary sequences by assuming cluster distance and reddening estimates in satisfactory agreement with empirical evaluations of these quantities. In general, models including overshooting during the H-burning phase provide a better match to the observations, at least for ages below ~4 Gyr. At [Fe/H] around solar and higher ages (i.e., smaller convective cores) before the onset of radiative cores, the selected efficiency of core overshooting may be too high in our model, as well as in various other models in the literature. Since we also provide canonical models, the reader is strongly encouraged to always compare the results from both sets in this critical age range.

Accounting for age Structure in Ponderosa Pine Ecosystem Analyses: Integrating Management, Disturbance Histories and Observations with the BIOME-BGC Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hibbard, K. A.; Law, B.; Thornton, P.

2003-12-01

Disturbance and management regimes in forested ecosystems have been recently highlighted as important factors contributing to quantification of carbon stocks and fluxes. Disturbance events, such as stand-replacing fires and current management regimes that emphasize understory and tree thinning are primary suspects influencing ecosystem processes, including net ecosystem productivity (NEP) in forests of the Pacific Northwest. Several recent analyses have compared simulated to measured component stocks and fluxes of carbon in Ponderosa Pine (Pinus ponderosa var. Laws) at 12 sites ranging from 9 to 300 years in central Oregon (Law et al. 2001, Law et al. 2003) using the BIOME-BGC model. Major emphases on ecosystem model developments include improving allocation logic, integrating ecosystem processes with disturbance such as fire and including nitrogen in biogeochemical cycling. In Law et al. (2001, 2003), field observations prompted BIOME-BGC improvements including dynamic allocation of carbon to fine root mass through the life of a stand. A sequence of simulations was also designed to represent both management and disturbance histories for each site, however, current age structure of each sites wasn't addressed. Age structure, or cohort management has largely been ignored by ecosystem models, however, some studies have sought to incorporate stand age with disturbance and management (e.g. Hibbard et al. 2003). In this analyses, we regressed tree ages against height (R2 = 0.67) to develop a proportional distribution of age structure for each site. To preserve the integrity of the comparison between Law et al. (2003) and this study, we maintained the same timing of harvest, however, based on the distribution of age structures, we manipulated the amount of removal. Harvest by Law et al. (2003) was set at stand-replacement (99%) levels to simulate clear-cutting and reflecting the average top 10% of the age in each plot. For the young sites, we set removal at 73%, 51% and 61% for sites averaging 9,16 and 23 years, respectively. It was assumed that changes in long-term pools (e.g. soil C) were negligible within these timeframes. In Law et al. (2003), the model performed well for old and mature sites, however, model simulations of the younger sites (9-50Y) were weak compared to NEP estimates from observations. Error for the young plots in Law et al. (2003) ranged from 150 - >400% of observed NEP. By accounting for the observed age structure through harvest removal, model error from this study ranged from 20-90% in young plots. This study is one of a few that have sought to account for age structure in simulating ecosystem dynamics and processes.

Risk Factors in Preschool Children for Predicting Asthma During the Preschool Age and the Early School Age: a Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Bao, Yixia; Chen, Zhimin; Liu, Enmei; Xiang, Li; Zhao, Deyu; Hong, Jianguo

2017-11-18

The aim of this study was to identify risk factors of asthma among children < 6 years old (preschool age) for predicting asthma during the preschool age and early school age (≤ 10 years of age). MEDLINE, Cochrane, EMBASE, and Google Scholar databases were searched until June 30, 2017. Prospective or retrospective cohort and case-control studies were included. Studies had to have evaluated risk factors or a predictive model for developing asthma in children ≤ 6 years of age or persistent asthma in early school age. A total of 17 studies were included in the analysis. Factors associated with developing asthma in children ≤ 10 years of age (both pre-school and early school age) included male gender (pooled OR = 1.70, P < 0.001), atopic dermatitis (pooled OR = 2.02, P < 0.001), a family history of asthma (pooled OR = 2.20, P < 0.001), and serum IgE levels ≥ 60 kU/l or having specific IgE (pooled OR = 2.36, P < 0.001). A history of exposure to smoke or wheezing was also associated with persistent asthma in early school age (pooled OR = 1.51, P = 0.030 and pooled OR = 2.59, P < 0.001, respectively). In general, asthma predictive models (e.g., API, PIAMA, PAPS) had relatively low sensitivity (range, 21% to 71.4%) but high specificity (range, 69% to 98%). The study found that male gender, exposure to smoke, atopic dermatitis, family history of asthma, history of wheezing, and serum IgE level ≥ 60 kU/l or having specific IgE were significantly associated with developing asthma by either preschool or early school age. Asthma predictive models can be developed by those risk factors.

Testing spectral models for stellar populations with star clusters - II. Results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

González Delgado, Rosa M.; Cid Fernandes, Roberto

2010-04-01

High spectral resolution evolutionary synthesis models have become a routinely used ingredient in extragalactic work, and as such deserve thorough testing. Star clusters are ideal laboratories for such tests. This paper applies the spectral fitting methodology outlined in Paper I to a sample of clusters, mainly from the Magellanic Clouds and spanning a wide range in age and metallicity, fitting their integrated light spectra with a suite of modern evolutionary synthesis models for single stellar populations. The combinations of model plus spectral library employed in this investigation are Galaxev/STELIB, Vazdekis/MILES, SED@/GRANADA and Galaxev/MILES+GRANADA, which provide a representative sample of models currently available for spectral fitting work. A series of empirical tests are performed with these models, comparing the quality of the spectral fits and the values of age, metallicity and extinction obtained with each of them. A comparison is also made between the properties derived from these spectral fits and literature data on these nearby, well studied clusters. These comparisons are done with the general goal of providing useful feedback for model makers, as well as guidance to the users of such models. We find the following. (i) All models are able to derive ages that are in good agreement both with each other and with literature data, although ages derived from spectral fits are on average slightly older than those based on the S-colour-magnitude diagram (S-CMD) method as calibrated by Girardi et al. (ii) There is less agreement between the models for the metallicity and extinction. In particular, Galaxev/STELIB models underestimate the metallicity by ~0.6 dex, and the extinction is overestimated by 0.1 mag. (iii) New generations of models using the GRANADA and MILES libraries are superior to STELIB-based models both in terms of spectral fit quality and regarding the accuracy with which age and metallicity are retrieved. Accuracies of about 0.1 dex in age and 0.3 dex in metallicity can be achieved as long as the models are not extrapolated beyond their expected range of validity.

Accounting for Age Uncertainty in Growth Modeling, the Case Study of Yellowfin Tuna (Thunnus albacares) of the Indian Ocean

PubMed Central

Dortel, Emmanuelle; Massiot-Granier, Félix; Rivot, Etienne; Million, Julien; Hallier, Jean-Pierre; Morize, Eric; Munaron, Jean-Marie; Bousquet, Nicolas; Chassot, Emmanuel

2013-01-01

Age estimates, typically determined by counting periodic growth increments in calcified structures of vertebrates, are the basis of population dynamics models used for managing exploited or threatened species. In fisheries research, the use of otolith growth rings as an indicator of fish age has increased considerably in recent decades. However, otolith readings include various sources of uncertainty. Current ageing methods, which converts an average count of rings into age, only provide periodic age estimates in which the range of uncertainty is fully ignored. In this study, we describe a hierarchical model for estimating individual ages from repeated otolith readings. The model was developed within a Bayesian framework to explicitly represent the sources of uncertainty associated with age estimation, to allow for individual variations and to include knowledge on parameters from expertise. The performance of the proposed model was examined through simulations, and then it was coupled to a two-stanza somatic growth model to evaluate the impact of the age estimation method on the age composition of commercial fisheries catches. We illustrate our approach using the saggital otoliths of yellowfin tuna of the Indian Ocean collected through large-scale mark-recapture experiments. The simulation performance suggested that the ageing error model was able to estimate the ageing biases and provide accurate age estimates, regardless of the age of the fish. Coupled with the growth model, this approach appeared suitable for modeling the growth of Indian Ocean yellowfin and is consistent with findings of previous studies. The simulations showed that the choice of the ageing method can strongly affect growth estimates with subsequent implications for age-structured data used as inputs for population models. Finally, our modeling approach revealed particularly useful to reflect uncertainty around age estimates into the process of growth estimation and it can be applied to any study relying on age estimation. PMID:23637773

Development of a physiologically based pharmacokinetic model of actinomycin D in children with cancer

PubMed Central

Walsh, Christopher; Bonner, Jennifer J.; Johnson, Trevor N.; Neuhoff, Sibylle; Ghazaly, Essam A.; Gribben, John G.; Boddy, Alan V.

2016-01-01

Aims Use of the anti‐tumour antibiotic actinomycin D is associated with development of hepatotoxicity, particularly in young children. A paucity of actinomycin D pharmacokinetic data make it challenging to develop a sound rationale for defining dosing regimens in younger patients. The study aim was to develop a physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model using a combination of data from the literature and generated from experimental analyses. Methods Assays to determine actinomycin D Log P, blood:plasma partition ratio and ABCB1 kinetics were conducted. These data were combined with physiochemical properties sourced from the literature to generate a compound file for use within the modelling‐simulation software Simcyp (version 14 release 1). For simulation, information was taken from two datasets, one from 117 patients under the age of 21 and one from 20 patients aged 16–48. Results The final model incorporated clinical renal and biliary clearance data and an additional systemic clearance value. The mean AUC0‐26h of simulated subjects was within 1.25‐fold of the observed AUC0‐26h (84 ng h ml−1 simulated vs. 93 ng h ml−1 observed). For the younger age ranges, AUC predictions were within two‐fold of observed values, with simulated data from six of the eight age/dose ranges falling within 15% of observed data. Simulated values for actinomycin D AUC0‐26h and clearance in infants aged 0–12 months ranged from 104 to 115 ng h ml−1 and 3.5–3.8 l h−1, respectively. Conclusions The model has potential utility for prediction of actinomycin D exposure in younger patients and may help guide future dosing. However, additional independent data from neonates and infants is needed for further validation. Physiological differences between paediatric cancer patients and healthy children also need to be further characterized and incorporated into PBPK models. PMID:26727248

Influence of Transport on Two-Dimensional Model Simulation. Tracer Sensitivity to 2-D Model Transport. 1; Long Lived Tracers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fleming, Eric L.; Jackman, Charles H.; Considine, David B.; Stolarski, Richard S.

1999-01-01

In this study, we examine the sensitivity of long lived tracers to changes in the base transport components in our 2-D model. Changes to the strength of the residual circulation in the upper troposphere and stratosphere and changes to the lower stratospheric K(sub zz) had similar effects in that increasing the transport rates decreased the overall stratospheric mean age, and increased the rate of removal of material from the stratosphere. Increasing the stratospheric K(sub yy) increased the mean age due to the greater recycling of air parcels through the middle atmosphere, via the residual circulation, before returning to the troposphere. However, increasing K(sub yy) along with self-consistent increases in the corresponding planetary wave drive, which leads to a stronger residual circulation, more than compensates for the K(sub yy)-effect, and produces significantly younger ages throughout the stratosphere. Simulations with very small tropical stratospheric K(sub yy) decreased the globally averaged age of air by as much as 25% in the middle and upper stratosphere, and resulted in substantially weaker vertical age gradients above 20 km in the extratropics. We found only very small stratospheric tracer sensitivity to the magnitude of the horizontal mixing across the tropopause, and to the strength of the mesospheric gravity wave drag and diffusion used in the model. We also investigated the transport influence on chemically active tracers and found a strong age-tracer correlation, both in concentration and calculated lifetimes. The base model transport gives the most favorable overall comparison with a variety of inert tracer observations, and provides a significant improvement over our previous 1995 model transport. Moderate changes to the base transport were found to provide modest agreement with some of the measurements. Transport scenarios with residence times ranging from moderately shorter to slightly longer relative to the base case simulated N2O lifetimes that were within the observational estimates of Volk et al. [1997]. However, only scenarios with rather fast transport rates were comparable with the Volk et al. estimates of CFCl3 lifetimes. This is inconsistent with model-measurement comparisons of mean age in which the base model or slightly slower transport rates compared the most favorably with balloon SF6 data. For all comparisons shown, large transport changes away from the base case resulted in simulations that were outside the range of measurements, and in many cases, far outside this range.

Improved age determination of blood and teeth samples using a selected set of DNA methylation markers

PubMed Central

Kamalandua, Aubeline

2015-01-01

Age estimation from DNA methylation markers has seen an exponential growth of interest, not in the least from forensic scientists. The current published assays, however, can still be improved by lowering the number of markers in the assay and by providing more accurate models to predict chronological age. From the published literature we selected 4 age-associated genes (ASPA, PDE4C, ELOVL2, and EDARADD) and determined CpG methylation levels from 206 blood samples of both deceased and living individuals (age range: 0–91 years). This data was subsequently used to compare prediction accuracy with both linear and non-linear regression models. A quadratic regression model in which the methylation levels of ELOVL2 were squared showed the highest accuracy with a Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) between chronological age and predicted age of 3.75 years and an adjusted R2 of 0.95. No difference in accuracy was observed for samples obtained either from living and deceased individuals or between the 2 genders. In addition, 29 teeth from different individuals (age range: 19–70 years) were analyzed using the same set of markers resulting in a MAD of 4.86 years and an adjusted R2 of 0.74. Cross validation of the results obtained from blood samples demonstrated the robustness and reproducibility of the assay. In conclusion, the set of 4 CpG DNA methylation markers is capable of producing highly accurate age predictions for blood samples from deceased and living individuals PMID:26280308

Reference right atrial dimensions and volume estimation by steady state free precession cardiovascular magnetic resonance

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) steady state free precession (SSFP) cine sequences with high temporal resolution and improved post-processing can accurately measure RA dimensions. We used this technique to define ranges for normal RA volumes and dimensions normalized, when necessary, to the influence of gender, body surface area (BSA) and age, and also to define the best 2D images-derived predictors of RA enlargement. Methods For definition of normal ranges of RA volume we studied 120 healthy subjects (60 men, 60 women; 20 subjects per age decile from 20 to 80 years), after careful exclusion of cardiovascular abnormality. We also studied 120 patients (60 men, 60 women; age range 20 to 80 years) with a clinical indication for CMR in order to define the best 1D and 2D predictors of RA enlargement. Data were generated from SSFP cine CMR, with 3-dimensional modeling, including tracking of the atrioventricular ring motion and time-volume curves analysis. Results In the group of healthy individuals, age influenced RA 2-chamber area and transverse diameter. Gender influenced most absolute RA dimensions and volume. Interestingly, right atrial volumes did not change with age and gender when indexed to body surface area. New CMR normal ranges for RA dimensions were modeled and displayed for clinical use with normalization for BSA and gender and display of parameter variation with age. Finally, the best 2D images-derived independent predictors of RA enlargement were indexed area and indexed longitudinal diameter in the 2-chamber view. Conclusion Reference RA dimensions and predictors of RA enlargement are provided using state-of-the-art CMR techniques. PMID:23566426

Reference left atrial dimensions and volumes by steady state free precession cardiovascular magnetic resonance

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Left atrial (LA) size is related to cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. Cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) provides high quality images of the left atrium with high temporal resolution steady state free precession (SSFP) cine sequences. We used SSFP cines to define normal ranges for LA volumes and dimensions relative to gender, age and body surface area (BSA), and examine the relative value of 2D atrial imaging techniques in patients. For definition of normal ranges of LA volume we studied 120 healthy subjects after careful exclusion of cardiovascular abnormality (60 men, 60 women; 20 subjects per age decile from 20 to 80 years). Data were generated from 3-dimensional modeling, including tracking of the atrioventricular ring motion and time-volume curves analysis. For definition of the best 2D images-derived predictors of LA enlargement, we studied 120 patients (60 men, 60 women; age range 20 to 80 years) with a clinical indication for CMR. Results In the healthy subjects, age was associated with LA 4-chamber transverse and 3-chamber anteroposterior diameters, but not with LA volume. Gender was an independent predictor of most absolute LA dimensions and volume, but following normalization to BSA, some associations became non-significant. CMR normal ranges were modeled and are tabled for clinical use with normalization, where appropriate, for BSA and gender and display of parameter variation with age. The best 2D predictors of LA volume were the 2-chamber area and 3-chamber area (both r = 0.90, p < 0.001). Conclusions These CMR data show that LA dimensions and volume in healthy, individuals vary significantly by BSA, with lesser effects of age and gender. PMID:21070636

Modeling the formation and aging of secondary organic aerosols during CalNex 2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hayes, P. L.; Ortega, A. M.; Ahmadov, R.; McKeen, S. A.; Washenfelder, R. A.; Alvarez, S.; Rappenglueck, B.; Holloway, J. S.; Gilman, J. B.; Kuster, W. C.; De Gouw, J. A.; Zotter, P.; Prevot, A. S.; Kleindienst, T. E.; Offenberg, J. H.; Jimenez, J. L.

2012-12-01

Several traditional and recently proposed models are applied to predict the concentrations and properties of secondary organic aerosols (SOA) and organic gases at the Pasadena ground site during the CalNex campaign. The models are constrained with and compared against results from available observations. The CalNex campaign and specifically the Pasadena ground site featured a large and sophisticated suite of aerosol and gas phase instrumentation, and thus, it provides a unique opportunity to test SOA models under conditions of strong urban emissions at a range of low photochemical ages. The oxidation of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) using an updated traditional model cannot explain the observed ambient SOA, and under-predicts the measurements by a factor of ~40. Similarly, after accounting for the multi-generation oxidation of VOCs using a volatility basis set (VBS) approach as described by Tsimpidi et al. (2010), SOA is still under-predicted by a factor of ~8. For SOA formed from VOCs (V-SOA) the dominant precursors are aromatics (xylenes, toluene, and trimethylbenzenes). The model SOA formed from the oxidation of primary semivolatile and intermediate volatility organic compounds (P-S/IVOCs, producing SI-SOA) is also predicted using the parameterizations of Robinson et al. (2007) and Grieshop et al. (2009), and the properties of V-SOA + SI-SOA are compared against the measured O:C and volatility. We also compare the results of the different models against fossil/non-fossil carbon measurements as well as tracers of different SOA precursors. Potential Aerosol Mass (PAM) measurements of the SOA forming potential of the Pasadena air masses are also compared against that predicted by the models. The PAM analysis allows for model/measurement comparisons of SOA properties over a range of photochemical ages spanning almost two weeks. Using the V-SOA model, at low photochemical ages (< 1 day) the modeled PAM V-SOA is less than the measured PAM SOA, similar to the ambient results. In contrast, at high photochemical ages (i.e., more than about three days) the modeled PAM V-SOA is substantially greater than that measured, which is likely due fragmentation reactions that are not included in that model. We derive a parameterization of the measured PAM SOA as a function of the input photochemical age and the PAM photochemical age that serves as a comparison with other SOA models.

Fetal nasal bone length and Down syndrome during the second trimester in a Chinese population.

PubMed

Hung, Jeng-Hsiu; Fu, Chong Yau; Chen, Chih-Yao; Chao, Kuan-Chong; Hung, Jamie

2008-08-01

The purpose of the present study was to build a database of reference ranges of fetal nasal bone length (NBL) in a Chinese population. The accuracy rate of detecting Down syndrome was also analyzed using fetal NBL as a marker. The control group of fetuses included 342 normal singleton pregnancies with no chromosomal or congenital anomalies. The present study was a cross-section study and the control group was used to construct percentile values of NBL from 13 to 29 gestational weeks of age. Two-dimensional ultrasonography was used for the nasal bone studies. Measurements of NBL were collected and each fetus contributed a single value to the reference sample. During the study period, 14 fetuses with Down syndrome were examined. Measurement of fetal NBL was made during amniocentesis, with gestational age ranging from 13 to 19 weeks. From 342 normal fetuses with gestational age ranging from 13 to 29 weeks, reference ranges of NBL were constructed. The reference ranges were constructed from the 100(1 - p)% reference range: Y +/- Zp x square root sigma 2, where Y = 25 - exp(3.58 - 0.044 x t + 0.0006 x t2), with Y being the fitted mean of regression model and t being gestational age (weeks). Using fetal NBL, the regression model was Pr(Down syndrome) = exp(W)/ [1 + exp(W)], where W = 0.62-4.80 x NBL (multiples of the median) in predicting Down syndrome. Fetal NBL was found to have a sensitivity and specificity of 0.78 and 0.78, respectively, in predicting Down syndrome in the second trimester of pregnancy. Fetal NBL measurement can provide a simple and useful algorithm to predict Down syndrome during the second trimester of pregnancy.

Adolescents' Age Preferences for Dating Partners: Support for an Evolutionary Model of Life-History Strategies.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kenrick, Douglas T.; And Others

1996-01-01

Explored sex differences in adolescent preference for older versus younger mates. Found that teenage males were willing to date females of a wide age range, whereas teenage females prefer dating males from their own age to several years older. Data suggested viewing development of sex differences in dating partner preference from the perspective…

Bayesian chronological analyses consistent with synchronous age of 12,835–12,735 Cal B.P. for Younger Dryas boundary on four continents

PubMed Central

Kennett, James P.; Kennett, Douglas J.; Culleton, Brendan J.; Aura Tortosa, J. Emili; Bischoff, James L.; Bunch, Ted E.; Daniel, I. Randolph; Erlandson, Jon M.; Ferraro, David; Firestone, Richard B.; Goodyear, Albert C.; Israde-Alcántara, Isabel; Johnson, John R.; Jordá Pardo, Jesús F.; Kimbel, David R.; LeCompte, Malcolm A.; Lopinot, Neal H.; Mahaney, William C.; Moore, Andrew M. T.; Moore, Christopher R.; Ray, Jack H.; Stafford, Thomas W.; Tankersley, Kenneth Barnett; Wittke, James H.; Wolbach, Wendy S.; West, Allen

2015-01-01

The Younger Dryas impact hypothesis posits that a cosmic impact across much of the Northern Hemisphere deposited the Younger Dryas boundary (YDB) layer, containing peak abundances in a variable assemblage of proxies, including magnetic and glassy impact-related spherules, high-temperature minerals and melt glass, nanodiamonds, carbon spherules, aciniform carbon, platinum, and osmium. Bayesian chronological modeling was applied to 354 dates from 23 stratigraphic sections in 12 countries on four continents to establish a modeled YDB age range for this event of 12,835–12,735 Cal B.P. at 95% probability. This range overlaps that of a peak in extraterrestrial platinum in the Greenland Ice Sheet and of the earliest age of the Younger Dryas climate episode in six proxy records, suggesting a causal connection between the YDB impact event and the Younger Dryas. Two statistical tests indicate that both modeled and unmodeled ages in the 30 records are consistent with synchronous deposition of the YDB layer within the limits of dating uncertainty (∼100 y). The widespread distribution of the YDB layer suggests that it may serve as a datum layer. PMID:26216981

Quantitative Thermochronology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Braun, Jean; van der Beek, Peter; Batt, Geoffrey

2006-05-01

Thermochronology, the study of the thermal history of rocks, enables us to quantify the nature and timing of tectonic processes. Quantitative Thermochronology is a robust review of isotopic ages, and presents a range of numerical modeling techniques to allow the physical implications of isotopic age data to be explored. The authors provide analytical, semi-analytical, and numerical solutions to the heat transfer equation in a range of tectonic settings and under varying boundary conditions. They then illustrate their modeling approach built around a large number of case studies. The benefits of different thermochronological techniques are also described. Computer programs on an accompanying website at www.cambridge.org/9780521830577 are introduced through the text and provide a means of solving the heat transport equation in the deforming Earth to predict the ages of rocks and compare them directly to geological and geochronological data. Several short tutorials, with hints and solutions, are also included. Numerous case studies help geologists to interpret age data and relate it to Earth processes Essential background material to aid understanding and using thermochronological data Provides a thorough treatise on numerical modeling of heat transport in the Earth's crust Supported by a website hosting relevant computer programs and colour slides of figures from the book for use in teaching

Bayesian chronological analyses consistent with synchronous age of 12,835-12,735 Cal B.P. for Younger Dryas boundary on four continents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kennett, James P.; Kennett, Douglas J.; Culleton, Brendan J.; Emili Aura Tortosa, J.; Bischoff, James L.; Bunch, Ted E.; Daniel, I. Randolph, Jr.; Erlandson, Jon M.; Ferraro, David; Firestone, Richard B.; Goodyear, Albert C.; Israde-Alcántara, Isabel; Johnson, John R.; Jordá Pardo, Jesús F.; Kimbel, David R.; LeCompte, Malcolm A.; Lopinot, Neal H.; Mahaney, William C.; Moore, Andrew M. T.; Moore, Christopher R.; Ray, Jack H.; Stafford, Thomas W., Jr.; Barnett Tankersley, Kenneth; Wittke, James H.; Wolbach, Wendy S.; West, Allen

2015-08-01

The Younger Dryas impact hypothesis posits that a cosmic impact across much of the Northern Hemisphere deposited the Younger Dryas boundary (YDB) layer, containing peak abundances in a variable assemblage of proxies, including magnetic and glassy impact-related spherules, high-temperature minerals and melt glass, nanodiamonds, carbon spherules, aciniform carbon, platinum, and osmium. Bayesian chronological modeling was applied to 354 dates from 23 stratigraphic sections in 12 countries on four continents to establish a modeled YDB age range for this event of 12,835-12,735 Cal B.P. at 95% probability. This range overlaps that of a peak in extraterrestrial platinum in the Greenland Ice Sheet and of the earliest age of the Younger Dryas climate episode in six proxy records, suggesting a causal connection between the YDB impact event and the Younger Dryas. Two statistical tests indicate that both modeled and unmodeled ages in the 30 records are consistent with synchronous deposition of the YDB layer within the limits of dating uncertainty (∼100 y). The widespread distribution of the YDB layer suggests that it may serve as a datum layer.

Bayesian chronological analyses consistent with synchronous age of 12,835-12,735 Cal B.P. for Younger Dryas boundary on four continents.

PubMed

Kennett, James P; Kennett, Douglas J; Culleton, Brendan J; Aura Tortosa, J Emili; Bischoff, James L; Bunch, Ted E; Daniel, I Randolph; Erlandson, Jon M; Ferraro, David; Firestone, Richard B; Goodyear, Albert C; Israde-Alcántara, Isabel; Johnson, John R; Jordá Pardo, Jesús F; Kimbel, David R; LeCompte, Malcolm A; Lopinot, Neal H; Mahaney, William C; Moore, Andrew M T; Moore, Christopher R; Ray, Jack H; Stafford, Thomas W; Tankersley, Kenneth Barnett; Wittke, James H; Wolbach, Wendy S; West, Allen

2015-08-11

The Younger Dryas impact hypothesis posits that a cosmic impact across much of the Northern Hemisphere deposited the Younger Dryas boundary (YDB) layer, containing peak abundances in a variable assemblage of proxies, including magnetic and glassy impact-related spherules, high-temperature minerals and melt glass, nanodiamonds, carbon spherules, aciniform carbon, platinum, and osmium. Bayesian chronological modeling was applied to 354 dates from 23 stratigraphic sections in 12 countries on four continents to establish a modeled YDB age range for this event of 12,835-12,735 Cal B.P. at 95% probability. This range overlaps that of a peak in extraterrestrial platinum in the Greenland Ice Sheet and of the earliest age of the Younger Dryas climate episode in six proxy records, suggesting a causal connection between the YDB impact event and the Younger Dryas. Two statistical tests indicate that both modeled and unmodeled ages in the 30 records are consistent with synchronous deposition of the YDB layer within the limits of dating uncertainty (∼ 100 y). The widespread distribution of the YDB layer suggests that it may serve as a datum layer.

The course of skull deformation from birth to 5 years of age: a prospective cohort study.

PubMed

van Vlimmeren, Leo A; Engelbert, Raoul Hh; Pelsma, Maaike; Groenewoud, Hans Mm; Boere-Boonekamp, Magda M; der Sanden, Maria Wg Nijhuis-van

2017-01-01

In a continuation of a prospective longitudinal cohort study in a healthy population on the course of skull shape from birth to 24 months, at 5 years of age, 248 children participated in a follow-up assessment using plagiocephalometry (ODDI-oblique diameter difference index, CPI-cranio proportional index). Data from the original study sampled at birth, 7 weeks, 6, 12, and 24 months were used in two linear mixed models. (1) if deformational plagiocephaly (ODDI <104%) and/or positional preference at 7 weeks of age are absent, normal skull shape can be predicted at 5 years of age; (2) if positional preference occurs, ODDI is the highest at 7 weeks and decreases to a stable lowest value at 2 and 5 years of age; and (3) regarding brachycephaly, all children showed the highest CPI at 6 months of age with a gradual decrease over time. The course of skull deformation is favourable in most of the children in The Netherlands; at 5 years of age, brachycephaly is within the normal range for all children, whereas the severity of plagiocephaly is within the normal range in 80%, within the mild range in 19%, and within the moderate/severe range in 1%. Medical consumption may be reduced by providing early tailored counselling. What is Known: • Skull deformation prevalence increased after recommendations against Sudden Infant Death Syndrome, little is known about the longitudinal course. • Paediatric physical therapy intervention between 2 and 6 months of age reduces deformational plagiocephaly at 6 and 12 months of age. What is New: • The course of skull deformation is favourable in most of the children in The Netherlands; at 5 years of age, deformational brachycephaly is within the normal range for all children, whereas the severity of deformational plagiocephaly is within the normal range in 80%, within the mild range in 19%, and within the moderate to severe range in only 1%. • Paediatric physical therapy intervention does not influence the long-term outcome; it only influences the earlier decrease of the severity of deformational plagiocephaly.

Testing a fall risk model for injection drug users.

PubMed

Pieper, Barbara; Templin, Thomas N; Goldberg, Allon

2012-01-01

Fall risk is a critical component of clinical assessment and has not been examined for persons who have injected illicit drugs and are aging. The aim of this study was to test and develop the Fall Risk Model for Injection Drug Users by examining the relationships among injection drug use, chronic venous insufficiency, lower extremity impairments (i.e., decreased ankle range of motion, reduced calf muscle endurance, and leg pain), age and other covariates, and the Tinetti balance and gait total score as a measure of fall risk. A cross-sectional comparative design was used with four crossed factors. Standardized instruments were used to assess the variables. Moderated multiple regression with linear and quadratic trends in age was used to examine the nature of the relationship between the Tinetti balance and gait total and age and the potential moderating role of injection drug use. A prespecified series of models was tested. Participants (n = 713) were men (46.9%) and women with a mean age of 46.26 years and primarily African American (61.7%) in methadone treatment centers. The fall risk of a 48-year-old leg injector was comparable with the fall risk of a 69-year-old who had not injected drugs. Variables were added to the model sequentially, resulting in some lost significance of some when they were explained by subsequent variables. Final significant variables in the model were employment status, number of comorbidities, ankle range of motion, leg pain, and calf muscle endurance. Fall risk was associated with route of drug use. Lower extremity impairments accounted for the effects of injection drug use and chronic venous insufficiency on risk for falls. Further understanding of fall risk in injection users is necessary as they age, attempt to work, and participate in activities.

Multi-tissue DNA methylation age: Molecular relationships and perspectives for advancing biomarker utility.

PubMed

Nwanaji-Enwerem, Jamaji C; Weisskopf, Marc G; Baccarelli, Andrea A

2018-04-23

The multi-tissue DNA methylation estimator of chronological age (DNAm-age) has been associated with a wide range of exposures and health outcomes. Still, it is unclear how DNAm-age can have such broad relationships and how it can be best utilized as a biomarker. Understanding DNAm-age's molecular relationships is a promising approach to address this critical knowledge gap. In this review, we discuss the existing literature regarding DNAm-age's molecular relationships in six major categories: animal model systems, cancer processes, cellular aging processes, immune system processes, metabolic processes, and nucleic acid processes. We also present perspectives regarding the future of DNAm-age research, including the need to translate a greater number of ongoing research efforts to experimental and animal model systems. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Business of Anti-Aging Science.

PubMed

de Magalhães, João Pedro; Stevens, Michael; Thornton, Daniel

2017-11-01

Age-related conditions are the leading causes of death and health-care costs. Reducing the rate of aging would have enormous medical and financial benefits. Myriad genes and pathways are known to regulate aging in model organisms, fostering a new crop of anti-aging companies. Approaches range from drug discovery efforts to big-data methods and direct-to-consumer (DTC) strategies. Challenges and pitfalls of commercialization include reliance on findings from short-lived model organisms, poor biological understanding of aging, and hurdles in performing clinical trials for aging. A large number of potential aging-associated interventions and targets exist, but given the long validation times only a small fraction can be explored for clinical applications. If even one company succeeds, however, the impact will be huge. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

The Exhumation of the Central Lhasa, Tibet: Evidence from the Low-temperature Thermochronology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, G.; Xiumian, H.; Sinclair, H. D.; Stuart, F. M.

2017-12-01

The modern Tibetan Plateau has an average elevation of 4500 m above the sea level. But its early growth history still remains debate, despite its significance to the global climate system. In common, the early growth of the Tibetan Plateau has been attributed to the India-Asia collision in the early Paleocene. However, the structural reconstruction, Late Cretaceous sedimentation, and petrology studies, imply there would be a paleo-plateau or the high-elevation gain in the Lhasa terrane prior to the India-Asia collision. In order to examine this model, the zircon/apatite U-Th-He (ZHe and AHe) and apatite fission track (AFT) are employed to the mid-Cretaceous granites in Coqen area, central Lhasa. Eight samples from the plateau surface yield ZHe ages ranging from 88 to 54 Ma, while the AHe ages ranging from 70 to 45 Ma. Five samples from the above have been conducted the AFT analysis and yielded AFT ages ranging between 73 and 62 Ma, showing the similar age ranges with the corresponding AHe ages. Single-sample inverse thermal kinetic modeling reveal that these intrusive rocks have undergone the rapid cooling history since 85 Ma, after when, the relatively slow cooling process has been established at 45 Ma. Inverse thermal-kinetic modeling of these data, recorded in the context of the Late Cretaceous rapid cooling history, is best interpreted by the early plateau growth in the central Lhasa. In consideration of the substantial crustal thickening and shortening in the Lhasa terrane during the Cretaceous, this Late Cretaceous-Early Paleogene rapid cooling history reveal that the exhumation of the central Lhasa has initiated before the India-Asia collision. This scenario is consistent with a 30 Ma ( 90-60 Ma) sedimentation hiatus since the Late Cretaceous terrestrial conglomerate deposition in the central Lhasa terrane.

Obtaining appropriate interval estimates for age when multiple indicators are used: evaluation of an ad-hoc procedure.

PubMed

Fieuws, Steffen; Willems, Guy; Larsen-Tangmose, Sara; Lynnerup, Niels; Boldsen, Jesper; Thevissen, Patrick

2016-03-01

When an estimate of age is needed, typically multiple indicators are present as found in skeletal or dental information. There exists a vast literature on approaches to estimate age from such multivariate data. Application of Bayes' rule has been proposed to overcome drawbacks of classical regression models but becomes less trivial as soon as the number of indicators increases. Each of the age indicators can lead to a different point estimate ("the most plausible value for age") and a prediction interval ("the range of possible values"). The major challenge in the combination of multiple indicators is not the calculation of a combined point estimate for age but the construction of an appropriate prediction interval. Ignoring the correlation between the age indicators results in intervals being too small. Boldsen et al. (2002) presented an ad-hoc procedure to construct an approximate confidence interval without the need to model the multivariate correlation structure between the indicators. The aim of the present paper is to bring under attention this pragmatic approach and to evaluate its performance in a practical setting. This is all the more needed since recent publications ignore the need for interval estimation. To illustrate and evaluate the method, Köhler et al. (1995) third molar scores are used to estimate the age in a dataset of 3200 male subjects in the juvenile age range.

Achieved versus intended pulse oximeter saturation in infants born less than 28 weeks' gestation: the AVIOx study.

PubMed

Hagadorn, James I; Furey, Anne M; Nghiem, Tuyet-Hang; Schmid, Christopher H; Phelps, Dale L; Pillers, De-Ann M; Cole, Cynthia H

2006-10-01

The objective of this study was to document pulse oximeter saturation levels achieved in the first 4 weeks of life in infants who were born at < 28 weeks' gestation, compared with the levels that were targeted by local policy, and examine factors that are associated with compliance with the target range. Infants who were < 28 weeks' gestation and < or = 96 hours of age were enrolled in a prospective, multicenter cohort study. Oximetry data were collected with masked signal-extraction oximeters for a 72-hour period in each of the first 4 weeks of life. Data were compared with the pulse oximeter saturation target range prescribed by local institutional policy. Factors that were associated with intended range compliance were identified with hierarchical modeling. Fourteen centers from 3 countries enrolled 84 infants with mean +/- SD birth weight of 863 +/- 208 g and gestational age of 26 +/- 1.4 weeks. Oxygen saturation policy limits ranged between 83% and 92% for lower limits and 92% and 98% for upper limits. For infants who received respiratory support, median pulse oximeter saturation level achieved was 95%. Center-specific medial levels were within the intended range at 12 centers. Centers maintained infants within their intended range 16% to 64% of the time but were above range 20% to 73% of the time. In hierarchical modeling, wider target ranges, higher target range upper limits, presence of a policy of setting oximeter alarms close to the target range limits, and lower gestational age were associated with improved target range compliance. Success with maintaining the intended pulse oximeter saturation range varied substantially among centers, among patients within centers, and for individual patients over time. Most noncompliance was above the intended range. Methods for improving compliance and the effect of improved compliance on neonatal outcomes require additional research.

1/f oscillations in a model of moth populations oriented by diffusive pheromones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barbosa, L. A.; Martins, M. L.; Lima, E. R.

2005-01-01

An individual-based model for the population dynamics of Spodoptera frugiperda in a homogeneous environment is proposed. The model involves moths feeding plants, mating through an anemotaxis search (i.e., oriented by odor dispersed in a current of air), and dying due to resource competition or at a maximum age. As observed in the laboratory, the females release pheromones at exponentially distributed time intervals, and it is assumed that the ranges of the male flights follow a power-law distribution. Computer simulations of the model reveal the central role of anemotaxis search for the persistence of moth population. Such stationary populations are exponentially distributed in age, exhibit random temporal fluctuations with 1/f spectrum, and self-organize in disordered spatial patterns with long-range correlations. In addition, the model results demonstrate that pest control through pheromone mass trapping is effective only if the amounts of pheromone released by the traps decay much slower than the exponential distribution for calling female.

Learning-based prediction of gestational age from ultrasound images of the fetal brain.

PubMed

Namburete, Ana I L; Stebbing, Richard V; Kemp, Bryn; Yaqub, Mohammad; Papageorghiou, Aris T; Alison Noble, J

2015-04-01

We propose an automated framework for predicting gestational age (GA) and neurodevelopmental maturation of a fetus based on 3D ultrasound (US) brain image appearance. Our method capitalizes on age-related sonographic image patterns in conjunction with clinical measurements to develop, for the first time, a predictive age model which improves on the GA-prediction potential of US images. The framework benefits from a manifold surface representation of the fetal head which delineates the inner skull boundary and serves as a common coordinate system based on cranial position. This allows for fast and efficient sampling of anatomically-corresponding brain regions to achieve like-for-like structural comparison of different developmental stages. We develop bespoke features which capture neurosonographic patterns in 3D images, and using a regression forest classifier, we characterize structural brain development both spatially and temporally to capture the natural variation existing in a healthy population (N=447) over an age range of active brain maturation (18-34weeks). On a routine clinical dataset (N=187) our age prediction results strongly correlate with true GA (r=0.98,accurate within±6.10days), confirming the link between maturational progression and neurosonographic activity observable across gestation. Our model also outperforms current clinical methods by ±4.57 days in the third trimester-a period complicated by biological variations in the fetal population. Through feature selection, the model successfully identified the most age-discriminating anatomies over this age range as being the Sylvian fissure, cingulate, and callosal sulci. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

NAPR: a Cloud-Based Framework for Neuroanatomical Age Prediction.

PubMed

Pardoe, Heath R; Kuzniecky, Ruben

2018-01-01

The availability of cloud computing services has enabled the widespread adoption of the "software as a service" (SaaS) approach for software distribution, which utilizes network-based access to applications running on centralized servers. In this paper we apply the SaaS approach to neuroimaging-based age prediction. Our system, named "NAPR" (Neuroanatomical Age Prediction using R), provides access to predictive modeling software running on a persistent cloud-based Amazon Web Services (AWS) compute instance. The NAPR framework allows external users to estimate the age of individual subjects using cortical thickness maps derived from their own locally processed T1-weighted whole brain MRI scans. As a demonstration of the NAPR approach, we have developed two age prediction models that were trained using healthy control data from the ABIDE, CoRR, DLBS and NKI Rockland neuroimaging datasets (total N = 2367, age range 6-89 years). The provided age prediction models were trained using (i) relevance vector machines and (ii) Gaussian processes machine learning methods applied to cortical thickness surfaces obtained using Freesurfer v5.3. We believe that this transparent approach to out-of-sample evaluation and comparison of neuroimaging age prediction models will facilitate the development of improved age prediction models and allow for robust evaluation of the clinical utility of these methods.

One factor or two parallel processes? Comorbidity and development of adolescent anxiety and depressive disorder symptoms.

PubMed

Hale, William W; Raaijmakers, Quinten A W; Muris, Peter; van Hoof, Anne; Meeus, Wim H J

2009-10-01

This study investigates whether anxiety and depressive disorder symptoms of adolescents from the general community are best described by a model that assumes they are indicative of one general factor or by a model that assumes they are two distinct disorders with parallel growth processes. Additional analyses were conducted to explore the comorbidity of adolescent anxiety and depressive disorder symptoms and the effects that adolescent anxiety and depressive disorder symptoms have on each other's symptom severity growth. Two cohorts of early (N = 923; Age range 10-15 years; Mean age = 12.4, SD = .59; Girls = 49%) and middle adolescent (N = 390; Age range 16-20 years; Mean age = 16.7, SD = .80; Girls = 57%) boys and girls from the general community were prospectively studied annually for five years. These two adolescent cohorts were divided into five groups: one group at-risk for developing a specific anxiety disorder and four additional groups of healthy adolescents that differed in age and sex. Self-reported anxiety and depressive disorder symptoms were analyzed with latent growth modeling. Comparison of the fit statistics of the two models clearly demonstrates the superiority of the distinct disorders with parallel growth processes model above the one factor model. It was also demonstrated that the initial symptom severity of either anxiety or depression is predictive of the development of the other, though in different ways for the at-risk and healthy adolescent groups. The results of this study established that the development of anxiety and depressive disorder symptoms of adolescents from the general community occurs as two distinct disorders with parallel growth processes, each with their own unique growth characteristics.

Measurements and Slope Analyses of Quaternary Cinder Cones, Camargo Volcanic Field, Chihuahua, Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gallegos, M. I.; Espejel-Garcia, V. V.

2012-12-01

The Camargo volcanic field (CVF) covers ~3000 km2 and is located in the southeast part of the state of Chihuahua, within the Basin and Range province. The CVF represents the largest mafic alkali volcanic field in northern Mexico. Over a 300 cinder cones have been recognized in the Camargo volcanic field. Volcanic activity ranges from 4.7 to 0.09 Ma revealed by 40Ar/39Ar dating methods. Previous studies say that there is a close relationship between the cinder cone slope angle, due to mechanical weathering, and age. This technique is considered a reliable age indicator, especially in arid climates, such as occur in the CVF. Data were acquired with digital topographic maps (DRG) and digital elevation models (DEM) overlapped in the Global Mapper software. For each cone, the average radius (r) was calculated from six measurements, the height (h) is the difference between peak elevation and the altitude of the contour used to close the radius, and the slope angle was calculated using the equation Θ = tan-1(h/r). The slope angles of 30 cinder cones were calculated showing angles ranging from 4 to 15 degrees. A diffusion model, displayed by an exponential relationship between slope angle and age, places the ages of these 30 cones from 215 to 82 ka, within the range marked by radiometric methods. Future work include the analysis of more cinder cones to cover the whole CVF, and contribute to the validation of this technique.

Fourier transform infrared reflectance spectra of latent fingerprints: a biometric gauge for the age of an individual.

PubMed

Hemmila, April; McGill, Jim; Ritter, David

2008-03-01

To determine if changes in fingerprint infrared spectra linear with age can be found, partial least squares (PLS1) regression of 155 fingerprint infrared spectra against the person's age was constructed. The regression produced a linear model of age as a function of spectrum with a root mean square error of calibration of less than 4 years, showing an inflection at about 25 years of age. The spectral ranges emphasized by the regression do not correspond to the highest concentration constituents of the fingerprints. Separate linear regression models for old and young people can be constructed with even more statistical rigor. The success of the regression demonstrates that a combination of constituents can be found that changes linearly with age, with a significant shift around puberty.

Using a GIS model to assess terrestrial salamander response to alternative forest management plans

Treesearch

Eric J. Gustafson; Nathan L. Murphy; Thomas R. Crow

2001-01-01

A GIS model predicting the spatial distribution of terrestrial salamander abundance based on topography and forest age was developed using parameters derived from the literature. The model was tested by sampling salamander abundance across the full range of site conditions used in the model. A regression of the predictions of our GIS model against these sample data...

Empirically Based Composite Fracture Prediction Model From the Global Longitudinal Study of Osteoporosis in Postmenopausal Women (GLOW)

PubMed Central

Compston, Juliet E.; Chapurlat, Roland D.; Pfeilschifter, Johannes; Cooper, Cyrus; Hosmer, David W.; Adachi, Jonathan D.; Anderson, Frederick A.; Díez-Pérez, Adolfo; Greenspan, Susan L.; Netelenbos, J. Coen; Nieves, Jeri W.; Rossini, Maurizio; Watts, Nelson B.; Hooven, Frederick H.; LaCroix, Andrea Z.; March, Lyn; Roux, Christian; Saag, Kenneth G.; Siris, Ethel S.; Silverman, Stuart; Gehlbach, Stephen H.

2014-01-01

Context: Several fracture prediction models that combine fractures at different sites into a composite outcome are in current use. However, to the extent individual fracture sites have differing risk factor profiles, model discrimination is impaired. Objective: The objective of the study was to improve model discrimination by developing a 5-year composite fracture prediction model for fracture sites that display similar risk profiles. Design: This was a prospective, observational cohort study. Setting: The study was conducted at primary care practices in 10 countries. Patients: Women aged 55 years or older participated in the study. Intervention: Self-administered questionnaires collected data on patient characteristics, fracture risk factors, and previous fractures. Main Outcome Measure: The main outcome is time to first clinical fracture of hip, pelvis, upper leg, clavicle, or spine, each of which exhibits a strong association with advanced age. Results: Of four composite fracture models considered, model discrimination (c index) is highest for an age-related fracture model (c index of 0.75, 47 066 women), and lowest for Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX) major fracture and a 10-site model (c indices of 0.67 and 0.65). The unadjusted increase in fracture risk for an additional 10 years of age ranges from 80% to 180% for the individual bones in the age-associated model. Five other fracture sites not considered for the age-associated model (upper arm/shoulder, rib, wrist, lower leg, and ankle) have age associations for an additional 10 years of age from a 10% decrease to a 60% increase. Conclusions: After examining results for 10 different bone fracture sites, advanced age appeared the single best possibility for uniting several different sites, resulting in an empirically based composite fracture risk model. PMID:24423345

Disability weights for infectious diseases in four European countries: comparison between countries and across respondent characteristics

PubMed Central

Maertens de Noordhout, Charline; Devleesschauwer, Brecht; Salomon, Joshua A; Turner, Heather; Cassini, Alessandro; Colzani, Edoardo; Speybroeck, Niko; Polinder, Suzanne; Kretzschmar, Mirjam E; Havelaar, Arie H; Haagsma, Juanita A

2018-01-01

Abstract Background In 2015, new disability weights (DWs) for infectious diseases were constructed based on data from four European countries. In this paper, we evaluated if country, age, sex, disease experience status, income and educational levels have an impact on these DWs. Methods We analyzed paired comparison responses of the European DW study by participants’ characteristics with separate probit regression models. To evaluate the effect of participants’ characteristics, we performed correlation analyses between countries and within country by respondent characteristics and constructed seven probit regression models, including a null model and six models containing participants’ characteristics. We compared these seven models using Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). Results According to AIC, the probit model including country as covariate was the best model. We found a lower correlation of the probit coefficients between countries and income levels (range rs: 0.97–0.99, P < 0.01) than between age groups (range rs: 0.98–0.99, P < 0.01), educational level (range rs: 0.98–0.99, P < 0.01), sex (rs = 0.99, P < 0.01) and disease status (rs = 0.99, P < 0.01). Within country the lowest correlations of the probit coefficients were between low and high income level (range rs = 0.89–0.94, P < 0.01). Conclusions We observed variations in health valuation across countries and within country between income levels. These observations should be further explored in a systematic way, also in non-European countries. We recommend future researches studying the effect of other characteristics of respondents on health assessment. PMID:29020343

The Compatibility of Friedmann Cosmological Models with Observed Properties of Gamma-Ray Bursts and a Large Hubble Constant

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Horack, John M.; Koshut, Thomas M.; Mallozzi, Robert S.; Emslie, A. Gordon; Meegan, Charles A.

1996-01-01

The distance scale to cosmic gamma-ray bursts (GRB's) is still uncertain by many orders of magnitude; however, one viable scenario places GRB's at cosmological distances, thereby permitting them to be used as tracers of the cosmological expansion over a significant range of redshifts zeta. Also, several recent measurements of the Hubble constant H(sub 0) appearing in the referred literature report values of 70-80 km/s /Mpc. Although there is significant debate regarding these measurements, we proceed here under the assumption that they are evidence of a large value for H(sub 0). This is done in order to investigate the additional constraints on cosmological models that can be obtained under this hypothesis when combined with the age of the universe and the brightness distribution of cosmological gamma-ray bursts. We show that the range of cosmological models that can be consistent with the GRB brightness distribution, a Hubble constant of 70-80 km/s/Mpc, and a minimum age of the universe of 13-15 Gyr is constrained significantly, largely independent of a wide range of assumptions regarding the evolutionary nature of the burst population. Low-density, Lambda greater than 0 cosmological models with deceleration parameter in the range -1 less than q(sub 0) less than 0 and density parameter sigma(sub 0) in the range approximately equals 0.10-0.25(Omega(sub 0) approximately equals 0.2-0.5) are strongly favored.

Molecular biomarkers for chronological age in animal ecology.

PubMed

Jarman, Simon N; Polanowski, Andrea M; Faux, Cassandra E; Robbins, Jooke; De Paoli-Iseppi, Ricardo; Bravington, Mark; Deagle, Bruce E

2015-10-01

The chronological age of an individual animal predicts many of its biological characteristics, and these in turn influence population-level ecological processes. Animal age information can therefore be valuable in ecological research, but many species have no external features that allow age to be reliably determined. Molecular age biomarkers provide a potential solution to this problem. Research in this area of molecular ecology has so far focused on a limited range of age biomarkers. The most commonly tested molecular age biomarker is change in average telomere length, which predicts age well in a small number of species and tissues, but performs poorly in many other situations. Epigenetic regulation of gene expression has recently been shown to cause age-related modifications to DNA and to cause changes in abundance of several RNA types throughout animal lifespans. Age biomarkers based on these epigenetic changes, and other new DNA-based assays, have already been applied to model organisms, humans and a limited number of wild animals. There is clear potential to apply these marker types more widely in ecological studies. For many species, these new approaches will produce age estimates where this was previously impractical. They will also enable age information to be gathered in cross-sectional studies and expand the range of demographic characteristics that can be quantified with molecular methods. We describe the range of molecular age biomarkers that have been investigated to date and suggest approaches for developing the newer marker types as age assays in nonmodel animal species. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Apparent CFC and 3H/ 3He age differences in water from Floridan Aquifer springs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Happell, James D.; Opsahl, Stephen; Top, Zafer; Chanton, Jeffrey P.

2006-03-01

The apparent CFC-11, -12 and -113 ages of Upper Floridan Aquifer water discharged from 31 springs located in Florida and Georgia ranged from 11 to 44 years when samples were collected in 2002 and 2003. Apparent 3H/ 3He ages in these springs ranged from 12 to 66 years. Some of the springs sampled did not yield valid CFC ages because one or more of the CFCs were contaminated by non-atmospheric sources. Of the 31 springs sampled, six were contaminated with all three CFCs and nine were contaminated with one or two CFCs. Of the remaining 16 springs, the CFC distributions of four could be modeled assuming a single source of water, and 11 were best modeled by assuming two sources of water, with one of the water sources >60 years old. The CFC and 3H/ 3He apparent ages and the simple mixing models applied to these ages suggest that past impacts to the water quality of water recharging the sampled springs may take anywhere from 0 to ˜60 years or more to appear in the discharging spring water. In 27 springs where both 3H/ 3He ages and CFC ages were available, five springs gave similar results between the two techniques, while in the other 22 cases the 3H/ 3He apparent ages were 8-40 years greater than the CFC ages. Large excesses of 4He were observed in many of the springs, consistent with a source of older water. This older water may also carry an additional and unaccounted for source of 3He, which may be responsible for the greater 3H/ 3He ages relative to the CFC ages. We believe that the large excess 3He and 4He values and apparent age differences are related to regional climate variations because our samples were obtained at the end of a 4-year drought.

On the diversity of compact objects within supernova remnants - I. A parametric model for magnetic field evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rogers, Adam; Safi-Harb, Samar

2016-04-01

A wealth of X-ray and radio observations has revealed in the past decade a growing diversity of neutron stars (NSs) with properties spanning orders of magnitude in magnetic field strength and ages, and with emission processes explained by a range of mechanisms dictating their radiation properties. However, serious difficulties exist with the magneto-dipole model of isolated NS fields and their inferred ages, such as a large range of observed braking indices (n, with values often <3) and a mismatch between the NS and associated supernova remnant (SNR) ages. This problem arises primarily from the assumptions of a constant magnetic field with n = 3, and an initial spin period that is much smaller than the observed current period. It has been suggested that a solution to this problem involves magnetic field evolution, with some NSs having magnetic fields buried within the crust by accretion of fall-back supernova material following their birth. In this work, we explore a parametric phenomenological model for magnetic field growth that generalizes previous suggested field evolution functions, and apply it to a variety of NSs with both secure SNR associations and known ages. We explore the flexibility of the model by recovering the results of previous work on buried magnetic fields in young NSs. Our model fits suggest that apparently disparate classes of NSs may be related to one another through the time evolution of the magnetic field.

Re-evaluating neonatal-age models for ungulates: Does model choice affect survival estimates?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grovenburg, Troy W.; Monteith, Kevin L.; Jacques, Christopher N.; Klaver, Robert W.; DePerno, Christopher S.; Brinkman, Todd J.; Monteith, Kyle B.; Gilbert, Sophie L.; Smith, Joshua B.; Bleich, Vernon C.; Swanson, Christopher C.; Jenks, Jonathan A.

2014-01-01

New-hoof growth is regarded as the most reliable metric for predicting age of newborn ungulates, but variation in estimated age among hoof-growth equations that have been developed may affect estimates of survival in staggered-entry models. We used known-age newborns to evaluate variation in age estimates among existing hoof-growth equations and to determine the consequences of that variation on survival estimates. During 2001–2009, we captured and radiocollared 174 newborn (≤24-hrs old) ungulates: 76 white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in Minnesota and South Dakota, 61 mule deer (O. hemionus) in California, and 37 pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) in South Dakota. Estimated age of known-age newborns differed among hoof-growth models and varied by >15 days for white-tailed deer, >20 days for mule deer, and >10 days for pronghorn. Accuracy (i.e., the proportion of neonates assigned to the correct age) in aging newborns using published equations ranged from 0.0% to 39.4% in white-tailed deer, 0.0% to 3.3% in mule deer, and was 0.0% for pronghorns. Results of survival modeling indicated that variability in estimates of age-at-capture affected short-term estimates of survival (i.e., 30 days) for white-tailed deer and mule deer, and survival estimates over a longer time frame (i.e., 120 days) for mule deer. Conversely, survival estimates for pronghorn were not affected by estimates of age. Our analyses indicate that modeling survival in daily intervals is too fine a temporal scale when age-at-capture is unknown given the potential inaccuracies among equations used to estimate age of neonates. Instead, weekly survival intervals are more appropriate because most models accurately predicted ages within 1 week of the known age. Variation among results of neonatal-age models on short- and long-term estimates of survival for known-age young emphasizes the importance of selecting an appropriate hoof-growth equation and appropriately defining intervals (i.e., weekly versus daily) for estimating survival.

Determinants of shoulder and elbow flexion range: results from the San Antonio Longitudinal Study of Aging.

PubMed

Escalante, A; Lichtenstein, M J; Hazuda, H P

1999-08-01

To gain a knowledge of factors associated with impaired upper extremity range of motion (ROM) in order to understand pathways that lead to disability. Shoulder and elbow flexion range was measured in a cohort of 695 community-dwelling subjects aged 65 to 74 years. Associations between subjects' shoulder and elbow flexion ranges and their demographic and anthropometric characteristics, as well as the presence of diabetes mellitus or self-reported physician-diagnosed arthritis, were examined using multivariate regression models. The relationship between shoulder or elbow flexion range and subjects' functional reach was examined to explore the functional significance of ROM in these joints. The flexion range for the 4 joints studied was at least 120 degrees in nearly all subjects (> or = 99% of the subjects for each of the 4 joints). Multivariate models revealed significant associations between male sex, Mexican American ethnic background, the use of oral hypoglycemic drugs or insulin to treat diabetes mellitus, and a lower shoulder flexion range. A lower elbow flexion range was associated with male sex, increasing body mass index, and the use of oral hypoglycemic drugs or insulin. A higher shoulder or elbow flexion range was associated with a lower likelihood of having a short functional reach. The great majority of community-dwelling elderly have a flexion range of shoulder and elbow joints that can be considered functional. Diabetes mellitus and obesity are two potentially treatable factors associated with reduced flexion range of these two functionally important joints.

Phenomenological model of nuclear primary air showers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tompkins, D. R., Jr.; Saterlie, S. F.

1976-01-01

The development of proton primary air showers is described in terms of a model based on a hadron core plus an electromagnetic cascade. The muon component is neglected. The model uses three parameters: a rate at which hadron core energy is converted into electromagnetic cascade energy and a two-parameter sea-level shower-age function. By assuming an interaction length for the primary nucleus, the model is extended to nuclear primaries. Both models are applied over the energy range from 10 to the 13th power to 10 to the 21st power eV. Both models describe the size and age structure (neglecting muons) from a depth of 342 to 2052 g/sq cm.

Aging of biogenic secondary organic aerosol via gas-phase OH radical reactions

PubMed Central

Donahue, Neil M.; Henry, Kaytlin M.; Mentel, Thomas F.; Kiendler-Scharr, Astrid; Spindler, Christian; Bohn, Birger; Brauers, Theo; Dorn, Hans P.; Fuchs, Hendrik; Tillmann, Ralf; Wahner, Andreas; Saathoff, Harald; Naumann, Karl-Heinz; Möhler, Ottmar; Leisner, Thomas; Müller, Lars; Reinnig, Marc-Christopher; Hoffmann, Thorsten; Salo, Kent; Hallquist, Mattias; Frosch, Mia; Bilde, Merete; Tritscher, Torsten; Barmet, Peter; Praplan, Arnaud P.; DeCarlo, Peter F.; Dommen, Josef; Prévôt, Andre S.H.; Baltensperger, Urs

2012-01-01

The Multiple Chamber Aerosol Chemical Aging Study (MUCHACHAS) tested the hypothesis that hydroxyl radical (OH) aging significantly increases the concentration of first-generation biogenic secondary organic aerosol (SOA). OH is the dominant atmospheric oxidant, and MUCHACHAS employed environmental chambers of very different designs, using multiple OH sources to explore a range of chemical conditions and potential sources of systematic error. We isolated the effect of OH aging, confirming our hypothesis while observing corresponding changes in SOA properties. The mass increases are consistent with an existing gap between global SOA sources and those predicted in models, and can be described by a mechanism suitable for implementation in those models. PMID:22869714

Analysis of near infrared spectra for age-grading of wild populations of Anopheles gambiae.

PubMed

Krajacich, Benjamin J; Meyers, Jacob I; Alout, Haoues; Dabiré, Roch K; Dowell, Floyd E; Foy, Brian D

2017-11-07

Understanding the age-structure of mosquito populations, especially malaria vectors such as Anopheles gambiae, is important for assessing the risk of infectious mosquitoes, and how vector control interventions may impact this risk. The use of near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) for age-grading has been demonstrated previously on laboratory and semi-field mosquitoes, but to date has not been utilized on wild-caught mosquitoes whose age is externally validated via parity status or parasite infection stage. In this study, we developed regression and classification models using NIRS on datasets of wild An. gambiae (s.l.) reared from larvae collected from the field in Burkina Faso, and two laboratory strains. We compared the accuracy of these models for predicting the ages of wild-caught mosquitoes that had been scored for their parity status as well as for positivity for Plasmodium sporozoites. Regression models utilizing variable selection increased predictive accuracy over the more common full-spectrum partial least squares (PLS) approach for cross-validation of the datasets, validation, and independent test sets. Models produced from datasets that included the greatest range of mosquito samples (i.e. different sampling locations and times) had the highest predictive accuracy on independent testing sets, though overall accuracy on these samples was low. For classification, we found that intramodel accuracy ranged between 73.5-97.0% for grouping of mosquitoes into "early" and "late" age classes, with the highest prediction accuracy found in laboratory colonized mosquitoes. However, this accuracy was decreased on test sets, with the highest classification of an independent set of wild-caught larvae reared to set ages being 69.6%. Variation in NIRS data, likely from dietary, genetic, and other factors limits the accuracy of this technique with wild-caught mosquitoes. Alternative algorithms may help improve prediction accuracy, but care should be taken to either maximize variety in models or minimize confounders.

Prospective Evaluation of a Model-Based Dosing Regimen for Amikacin in Preterm and Term Neonates in Clinical Practice

PubMed Central

De Cock, R. F. W.; Allegaert, K.; Vanhaesebrouck, S.; Danhof, M.; Knibbe, C. A. J.

2015-01-01

Based on a previously derived population pharmacokinetic model, a novel neonatal amikacin dosing regimen was developed. The aim of the current study was to prospectively evaluate this dosing regimen. First, early (before and after second dose) therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) observations were evaluated for achieving target trough (<3 mg/liter) and peak (>24 mg/liter) levels. Second, all observed TDM concentrations were compared with model-predicted concentrations, whereby the results of a normalized prediction distribution error (NPDE) were considered. Subsequently, Monte Carlo simulations were performed. Finally, remaining causes limiting amikacin predictability (i.e., prescription errors and disease characteristics of outliers) were explored. In 579 neonates (median birth body weight, 2,285 [range, 420 to 4,850] g; postnatal age 2 days [range, 1 to 30 days]; gestational age, 34 weeks [range, 24 to 41 weeks]), 90.5% of the observed early peak levels reached 24 mg/liter, and 60.2% of the trough levels were <3 mg/liter (93.4% ≤5 mg/liter). Observations were accurately predicted by the model without bias, which was confirmed by the NPDE. Monte Carlo simulations showed that peak concentrations of >24 mg/liter were reached at steady state in almost all patients. Trough values of <3 mg/liter at steady state were documented in 78% to 100% and 45% to 96% of simulated cases with and without ibuprofen coadministration, respectively; suboptimal trough levels were found in patients with postnatal age <14 days and current weight of >2,000 g. Prospective evaluation of a model-based neonatal amikacin dosing regimen resulted in optimized peak and trough concentrations in almost all patients. Slightly adapted dosing for patient subgroups with suboptimal trough levels was proposed. This model-based approach improves neonatal dosing individualization. PMID:26248375

Colorectal liver metastases: contrast agent diffusion coefficient for quantification of contrast enhancement heterogeneity at MR imaging.

PubMed

Jia, Guang; O'Dell, Craig; Heverhagen, Johannes T; Yang, Xiangyu; Liang, Jiachao; Jacko, Richard V; Sammet, Steffen; Pellas, Theodore; Cole, Patricia; Knopp, Michael V

2008-09-01

To describe and determine the reproducibility of a simplified model to quantitatively measure heterogeneous intralesion contrast agent diffusion in colorectal liver metastases. This HIPAA-compliant retrospective study received institutional review board approval, and written informed consent was obtained from 14 patients (mean age, 61 years +/- 9 [standard deviation]; range, 41-78 years), including 10 men (mean age, 65 years +/- 8; range, 47-78 years) and four women (mean age, 54 years +/- 9; range, 41-59 years), with colorectal liver metastases. Magnetic resonance (MR) imaging was performed twice (first baseline MR image [B(1)] and second baseline MR image [B(2)]) in a single target lesion prior to therapy. Dynamic contrast material-enhanced MR imaging was performed by using a saturation-recovery fast gradient-echo sequence. A simplified contrast agent diffusion model was proposed, and a contrast agent diffusion coefficient (CDC) was calculated. The reproducibility of the CDC measurement was evaluated by using the Bland-Altman plot and a linear regression model. The mean CDC was 0.22 mm(2)/sec (range, 0.01-0.73 mm(2)/sec) on B(1) and 0.24 mm(2)/sec (range, 0.01-0.71 mm(2)/sec) on B(2), with an intraclass correlation coefficient of 0.91 (P < .0001). Bland-Altman plot showed good agreement, with a mean difference in measurement pairs of 0.017 mm(2)/sec +/- 0.096. The slope from the linear regression model was 0.89 (95% confidence interval: 0.63, 1.15) and the intercept was 0.01 (95% confidence interval: -0.08, 0.09). The CDC enables a quantitative description of contrast enhancement heterogeneity in lesions. Given the high reproducibility of the CDC metric, CDC appears promising for further qualification as an imaging biomarker of change measurement in response assessment. http://radiology.rsnajnls.org/cgi/content/full/248/3/901/DC1. RSNA, 2008

A Complex Story: Universal Preference vs. Individual Differences Shaping Aesthetic Response to Fractals Patterns.

PubMed

Street, Nichola; Forsythe, Alexandra M; Reilly, Ronan; Taylor, Richard; Helmy, Mai S

2016-01-01

Fractal patterns offer one way to represent the rough complexity of the natural world. Whilst they dominate many of our visual experiences in nature, little large-scale perceptual research has been done to explore how we respond aesthetically to these patterns. Previous research (Taylor et al., 2011) suggests that the fractal patterns with mid-range fractal dimensions (FDs) have universal aesthetic appeal. Perceptual and aesthetic responses to visual complexity have been more varied with findings suggesting both linear (Forsythe et al., 2011) and curvilinear (Berlyne, 1970) relationships. Individual differences have been found to account for many of the differences we see in aesthetic responses but some, such as culture, have received little attention within the fractal and complexity research fields. This two-study article aims to test preference responses to FD and visual complexity, using a large cohort (N = 443) of participants from around the world to allow universality claims to be tested. It explores the extent to which age, culture and gender can predict our preferences for fractally complex patterns. Following exploratory analysis that found strong correlations between FD and visual complexity, a series of linear mixed-effect models were implemented to explore if each of the individual variables could predict preference. The first tested a linear complexity model (likelihood of selecting the more complex image from the pair of images) and the second a mid-range FD model (likelihood of selecting an image within mid-range). Results show that individual differences can reliably predict preferences for complexity across culture, gender and age. However, in fitting with current findings the mid-range models show greater consistency in preference not mediated by gender, age or culture. This article supports the established theory that the mid-range fractal patterns appear to be a universal construct underlying preference but also highlights the fragility of universal claims by demonstrating individual differences in preference for the interrelated concept of visual complexity. This highlights a current stalemate in the field of empirical aesthetics.

The CIRCORT database: Reference ranges and seasonal changes in diurnal salivary cortisol derived from a meta-dataset comprised of 15 field studies

PubMed Central

Miller, Robert; Stalder, Tobias; Jarczok, Marc; Almeida, David M.; Badrick, Ellena; Bartels, Meike; Boomsma, Dorret I.; Coe, Christopher L.; Dekker, Marieke C. J.; Donzella, Bonny; Fischer, Joachim E.; Gunnar, Megan R.; Kumari, Meena; Lederbogen, Florian; Oldehinkel, Albertine J.; Power, Christine; Rosmalen, Judith G.; Ryff, Carol D.; Subramanian, S V; Tiemeier, Henning; Watamura, Sarah E.; Kirschbaum, Clemens

2016-01-01

Diurnal salivary cortisol profiles are valuable indicators of adrenocortical functioning in epidemiological research and clinical practice. However, normative reference values derived from a large number of participants and across a wide age range are still missing. To fill this gap, data were compiled from 15 independently conducted field studies with a total of 104,623 salivary cortisol samples obtained from 18,698 unselected individuals (mean age: 48.3 years, age range: 0.5 to 98.5 years, 39% females). Besides providing a descriptive analysis of the complete dataset, we also performed mixed-effects growth curve modeling of diurnal salivary cortisol (i.e., 1 to 16 hours after awakening). Cortisol decreased significantly across the day and was influenced by both, age and sex. Intriguingly, we also found a pronounced impact of sampling season with elevated diurnal cortisol in spring and decreased levels in autumn. However, the majority of variance was accounted for by between-participant and between-study variance components. Based on these analyses, reference ranges (LC/MS-MS calibrated) for cortisol concentrations in saliva were derived for different times across the day, with more specific reference ranges generated for males and females in different age categories. This integrative summary provides important reference values on salivary cortisol to aid basic scientists and clinicians in interpreting deviations from the normal diurnal cycle. PMID:27448524

Child Mortality Estimation: A Global Overview of Infant and Child Mortality Age Patterns in Light of New Empirical Data

PubMed Central

Guillot, Michel; Gerland, Patrick; Pelletier, François; Saabneh, Ameed

2012-01-01

Background The under-five mortality rate (the probability of dying between birth and age 5 y, also denoted in the literature as U5MR and 5 q 0) is a key indicator of child health, but it conceals important information about how this mortality is distributed by age. One important distinction is what amount of the under-five mortality occurs below age 1 y (1 q 0) versus at age 1 y and above (4 q 1). However, in many country settings, this distinction is often difficult to establish because of various types of data errors. As a result, it is common practice to resort to model age patterns to estimate 1 q 0 and 4 q 1 on the basis of an observed value of 5 q 0. The most commonly used model age patterns for this purpose are the Coale and Demeny and the United Nations systems. Since the development of these models, many additional sources of data for under-five mortality have become available, making possible a general evaluation of age patterns of infant and child mortality. In this paper, we do a systematic comparison of empirical values of 1 q 0 and 4 q 1 against model age patterns, and discuss whether observed deviations are due to data errors, or whether they reflect true epidemiological patterns not addressed in existing model life tables. Methods and Findings We used vital registration data from the Human Mortality Database, sample survey data from the World Fertility Survey and Demographic and Health Surveys programs, and data from Demographic Surveillance Systems. For each of these data sources, we compared empirical combinations of 1 q 0 and 4 q 1 against combinations provided by Coale and Demeny and United Nations model age patterns. We found that, on the whole, empirical values fall relatively well within the range provided by these models, but we also found important exceptions. Sub-Saharan African countries have a tendency to exhibit high values of 4 q 1 relative to 1 q 0, a pattern that appears to arise for the most part from true epidemiological causes. While this pattern is well known in the case of western Africa, we observed that it is more widespread than commonly thought. We also found that the emergence of HIV/AIDS, while perhaps contributing to high relative values of 4 q 1, does not appear to have substantially modified preexisting patterns. We also identified a small number of countries scattered in different parts of the world that exhibit unusually low values of 4 q 1 relative to 1 q 0, a pattern that is not likely to arise merely from data errors. Finally, we illustrate that it is relatively common for populations to experience changes in age patterns of infant and child mortality as they experience a decline in mortality. Conclusions Existing models do not appear to cover the entire range of epidemiological situations and trajectories. Therefore, model life tables should be used with caution for estimating 1 q 0 and 4 q 1 on the basis of 5 q 0. Moreover, this model-based estimation procedure assumes that the input value of 5 q 0 is correct, which may not always be warranted, especially in the case of survey data. A systematic evaluation of data errors in sample surveys and their impact on age patterns of 1 q 0 and 4 q 1 is urgently needed, along with the development of model age patterns of under-five mortality that would cover a wider range of epidemiological situations and trajectories. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary. PMID:22952438

Stellar population models in the Near-Infrared (Ph.D. thesis)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meneses-Goytia, Sofia

2015-11-01

The study of early-type elliptical and lenticular galaxies provides important information about the formation and evolution of galaxies in the early Universe. These distant systems cannot be studied by looking at their individual stars but information can still be obtained by studying their unresolved spectrum in detail. During my PhD I have constructed accurate unresolved stellar population models for populations of a single age and metallicity in the near-infrared range. The extension to the NIR is important for the study of early-type galaxies, since these galaxies are predominantly old and therefore emit most of their light in this wavelength range. The models are based on the NASA IRTF library of empirical stellar spectra. Integrating these spectra along theoretical isochrones, while assuming an initial mass function, we have produced model spectra of single age-metallicity stellar populations at an intermediate resolution. Comparison to literature results show that our models are well suited for studying stellar populations in unresolved galaxies. They are particularly useful for studying the old and intermediate-age stellar populations in galaxies, relatively free from contamination of young stars and extinction by dust. Subsequently, we use the models to fit the observed spectra of globular clusters and galaxies, to derive their age distribution, chemical abundances and IMF properties. We show that the contribution of AGB stars to the galaxy spectrum is clearly larger in the field than it is in the Fornax cluster. This implies that the environment plays an important role in driving the evolutionary histories of the galaxies.

A review of single-sample-based models and other approaches for radiocarbon dating of dissolved inorganic carbon in groundwater

USGS Publications Warehouse

Han, L. F; Plummer, Niel

2016-01-01

Numerous methods have been proposed to estimate the pre-nuclear-detonation 14C content of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) recharged to groundwater that has been corrected/adjusted for geochemical processes in the absence of radioactive decay (14C0) - a quantity that is essential for estimation of radiocarbon age of DIC in groundwater. The models/approaches most commonly used are grouped as follows: (1) single-sample-based models, (2) a statistical approach based on the observed (curved) relationship between 14C and δ13C data for the aquifer, and (3) the geochemical mass-balance approach that constructs adjustment models accounting for all the geochemical reactions known to occur along a groundwater flow path. This review discusses first the geochemical processes behind each of the single-sample-based models, followed by discussions of the statistical approach and the geochemical mass-balance approach. Finally, the applications, advantages and limitations of the three groups of models/approaches are discussed.The single-sample-based models constitute the prevailing use of 14C data in hydrogeology and hydrological studies. This is in part because the models are applied to an individual water sample to estimate the 14C age, therefore the measurement data are easily available. These models have been shown to provide realistic radiocarbon ages in many studies. However, they usually are limited to simple carbonate aquifers and selection of model may have significant effects on 14C0 often resulting in a wide range of estimates of 14C ages.Of the single-sample-based models, four are recommended for the estimation of 14C0 of DIC in groundwater: Pearson's model, (Ingerson and Pearson, 1964; Pearson and White, 1967), Han & Plummer's model (Han and Plummer, 2013), the IAEA model (Gonfiantini, 1972; Salem et al., 1980), and Oeschger's model (Geyh, 2000). These four models include all processes considered in single-sample-based models, and can be used in different ranges of 13C values.In contrast to the single-sample-based models, the extended Gonfiantini & Zuppi model (Gonfiantini and Zuppi, 2003; Han et al., 2014) is a statistical approach. This approach can be used to estimate 14C ages when a curved relationship between the 14C and 13C values of the DIC data is observed. In addition to estimation of groundwater ages, the relationship between 14C and δ13C data can be used to interpret hydrogeological characteristics of the aquifer, e.g. estimating apparent rates of geochemical reactions and revealing the complexity of the geochemical environment, and identify samples that are not affected by the same set of reactions/processes as the rest of the dataset. The investigated water samples may have a wide range of ages, and for waters with very low values of 14C, the model based on statistics may give more reliable age estimates than those obtained from single-sample-based models. In the extended Gonfiantini & Zuppi model, a representative system-wide value of the initial 14C content is derived from the 14C and δ13C data of DIC and can differ from that used in single-sample-based models. Therefore, the extended Gonfiantini & Zuppi model usually avoids the effect of modern water components which might retain ‘bomb’ pulse signatures.The geochemical mass-balance approach constructs an adjustment model that accounts for all the geochemical reactions known to occur along an aquifer flow path (Plummer et al., 1983; Wigley et al., 1978; Plummer et al., 1994; Plummer and Glynn, 2013), and includes, in addition to DIC, dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and methane (CH4). If sufficient chemical, mineralogical and isotopic data are available, the geochemical mass-balance method can yield the most accurate estimates of the adjusted radiocarbon age. The main limitation of this approach is that complete information is necessary on chemical, mineralogical and isotopic data and these data are often limited.Failure to recognize the limitations and underlying assumptions on which the various models and approaches are based can result in a wide range of estimates of 14C0 and limit the usefulness of radiocarbon as a dating tool for groundwater. In each of the three generalized approaches (single-sample-based models, statistical approach, and geochemical mass-balance approach), successful application depends on scrutiny of the isotopic (14C and 13C) and chemical data to conceptualize the reactions and processes that affect the 14C content of DIC in aquifers. The recently developed graphical analysis method is shown to aid in determining which approach is most appropriate for the isotopic and chemical data from a groundwater system.

Initial Cognitive Performance Predicts Longitudinal Aviator Performance

PubMed Central

Jo, Booil; Adamson, Maheen M.; Kennedy, Quinn; Noda, Art; Hernandez, Beatriz; Zeitzer, Jamie M.; Friedman, Leah F.; Fairchild, Kaci; Scanlon, Blake K.; Murphy, Greer M.; Taylor, Joy L.

2011-01-01

Objectives. The goal of the study was to improve prediction of longitudinal flight simulator performance by studying cognitive factors that may moderate the influence of chronological age. Method. We examined age-related change in aviation performance in aircraft pilots in relation to baseline cognitive ability measures and aviation expertise. Participants were aircraft pilots (N = 276) aged 40–77.9. Flight simulator performance and cognition were tested yearly; there were an average of 4.3 (± 2.7; range 1–13) data points per participant. Each participant was classified into one of the three levels of aviation expertise based on Federal Aviation Administration pilot proficiency ratings: least, moderate, or high expertise. Results. Addition of measures of cognitive processing speed and executive function to a model of age-related change in aviation performance significantly improved the model. Processing speed and executive function performance interacted such that the slowest rate of decline in flight simulator performance was found in aviators with the highest scores on tests of these abilities. Expertise was beneficial to pilots across the age range studied; however, expertise did not show evidence of reducing the effect of age. Discussion. These data suggest that longitudinal performance on an important real-world activity can be predicted by initial assessment of relevant cognitive abilities. PMID:21586627

Novel gene function revealed by mouse mutagenesis screens for models of age-related disease.

PubMed

Potter, Paul K; Bowl, Michael R; Jeyarajan, Prashanthini; Wisby, Laura; Blease, Andrew; Goldsworthy, Michelle E; Simon, Michelle M; Greenaway, Simon; Michel, Vincent; Barnard, Alun; Aguilar, Carlos; Agnew, Thomas; Banks, Gareth; Blake, Andrew; Chessum, Lauren; Dorning, Joanne; Falcone, Sara; Goosey, Laurence; Harris, Shelley; Haynes, Andy; Heise, Ines; Hillier, Rosie; Hough, Tertius; Hoslin, Angela; Hutchison, Marie; King, Ruairidh; Kumar, Saumya; Lad, Heena V; Law, Gemma; MacLaren, Robert E; Morse, Susan; Nicol, Thomas; Parker, Andrew; Pickford, Karen; Sethi, Siddharth; Starbuck, Becky; Stelma, Femke; Cheeseman, Michael; Cross, Sally H; Foster, Russell G; Jackson, Ian J; Peirson, Stuart N; Thakker, Rajesh V; Vincent, Tonia; Scudamore, Cheryl; Wells, Sara; El-Amraoui, Aziz; Petit, Christine; Acevedo-Arozena, Abraham; Nolan, Patrick M; Cox, Roger; Mallon, Anne-Marie; Brown, Steve D M

2016-08-18

Determining the genetic bases of age-related disease remains a major challenge requiring a spectrum of approaches from human and clinical genetics to the utilization of model organism studies. Here we report a large-scale genetic screen in mice employing a phenotype-driven discovery platform to identify mutations resulting in age-related disease, both late-onset and progressive. We have utilized N-ethyl-N-nitrosourea mutagenesis to generate pedigrees of mutagenized mice that were subject to recurrent screens for mutant phenotypes as the mice aged. In total, we identify 105 distinct mutant lines from 157 pedigrees analysed, out of which 27 are late-onset phenotypes across a range of physiological systems. Using whole-genome sequencing we uncover the underlying genes for 44 of these mutant phenotypes, including 12 late-onset phenotypes. These genes reveal a number of novel pathways involved with age-related disease. We illustrate our findings by the recovery and characterization of a novel mouse model of age-related hearing loss.

Novel gene function revealed by mouse mutagenesis screens for models of age-related disease

PubMed Central

Potter, Paul K.; Bowl, Michael R.; Jeyarajan, Prashanthini; Wisby, Laura; Blease, Andrew; Goldsworthy, Michelle E.; Simon, Michelle M.; Greenaway, Simon; Michel, Vincent; Barnard, Alun; Aguilar, Carlos; Agnew, Thomas; Banks, Gareth; Blake, Andrew; Chessum, Lauren; Dorning, Joanne; Falcone, Sara; Goosey, Laurence; Harris, Shelley; Haynes, Andy; Heise, Ines; Hillier, Rosie; Hough, Tertius; Hoslin, Angela; Hutchison, Marie; King, Ruairidh; Kumar, Saumya; Lad, Heena V.; Law, Gemma; MacLaren, Robert E.; Morse, Susan; Nicol, Thomas; Parker, Andrew; Pickford, Karen; Sethi, Siddharth; Starbuck, Becky; Stelma, Femke; Cheeseman, Michael; Cross, Sally H.; Foster, Russell G.; Jackson, Ian J.; Peirson, Stuart N.; Thakker, Rajesh V.; Vincent, Tonia; Scudamore, Cheryl; Wells, Sara; El-Amraoui, Aziz; Petit, Christine; Acevedo-Arozena, Abraham; Nolan, Patrick M.; Cox, Roger; Mallon, Anne-Marie; Brown, Steve D. M.

2016-01-01

Determining the genetic bases of age-related disease remains a major challenge requiring a spectrum of approaches from human and clinical genetics to the utilization of model organism studies. Here we report a large-scale genetic screen in mice employing a phenotype-driven discovery platform to identify mutations resulting in age-related disease, both late-onset and progressive. We have utilized N-ethyl-N-nitrosourea mutagenesis to generate pedigrees of mutagenized mice that were subject to recurrent screens for mutant phenotypes as the mice aged. In total, we identify 105 distinct mutant lines from 157 pedigrees analysed, out of which 27 are late-onset phenotypes across a range of physiological systems. Using whole-genome sequencing we uncover the underlying genes for 44 of these mutant phenotypes, including 12 late-onset phenotypes. These genes reveal a number of novel pathways involved with age-related disease. We illustrate our findings by the recovery and characterization of a novel mouse model of age-related hearing loss. PMID:27534441

Clinical prediction models for young febrile infants at the emergency department: an international validation study.

PubMed

Vos-Kerkhof, Evelien de; Gomez, Borja; Milcent, Karen; Steyerberg, Ewout W; Nijman, Ruud Gerard; Smit, Frank J; Mintegi, Santiago; Moll, Henriette A; Gajdos, Vincent; Oostenbrink, Rianne

2018-05-24

To assess the diagnostic value of existing clinical prediction models (CPM; ie, statistically derived) in febrile young infants at risk for serious bacterial infections. A systematic literature review identified eight CPMs for predicting serious bacterial infections in febrile children. We validated these CPMs on four validation cohorts of febrile children in Spain (age <3 months), France (age <3 months) and two cohorts in the Netherlands (age 1-3 months and >3-12 months). We evaluated the performance of the CPMs by sensitivity/specificity, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and calibration studies. The original cohorts in which the prediction rules were developed (derivation cohorts) ranged from 381 to 15 781 children, with a prevalence of serious bacterial infections varying from 0.8% to 27% and spanned an age range of 0-16 years. All CPMs originally performed moderately to very well (AUC 0.60-0.93). The four validation cohorts included 159-2204 febrile children, with a median age range of 1.8 (1.2-2.4) months for the three cohorts <3 months and 8.4 (6.0-9.6) months for the cohort >3-12 months of age. The prevalence of serious bacterial infections varied between 15.1% and 17.2% in the three cohorts <3 months and was 9.8% for the cohort >3-12 months of age. Although discriminative values varied greatly, best performance was observed for four CPMs including clinical signs and symptoms, urine dipstick analyses and laboratory markers with AUC ranging from 0.68 to 0.94 in the three cohorts <3 months (ranges sensitivity: 0.48-0.94 and specificity: 0.71-0.97). For the >3-12 months' cohort AUC ranges from 0.80 to 0.89 (ranges sensitivity: 0.70-0.82 and specificity: 0.78-0.90). In general, the specificities exceeded sensitivities in our cohorts, in contrast to derivation cohorts with high sensitivities, although this effect was stronger in infants <3 months than in infants >3-12 months. We identified four CPMs, including clinical signs and symptoms, urine dipstick analysis and laboratory markers, which can aid clinicians in identifying serious bacterial infections. We suggest clinicians should use CPMs as an adjunctive clinical tool when assessing the risk of serious bacterial infections in febrile young infants. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Understanding Elementary Astronomy by Making Drawing-Based Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

van Joolingen, W. R.; Aukes, Annika V.; Gijlers, H.; Bollen, L.

2015-01-01

Modeling is an important approach in the teaching and learning of science. In this study, we attempt to bring modeling within the reach of young children by creating the SimSketch modeling system, which is based on freehand drawings that can be turned into simulations. This system was used by 247 children (ages ranging from 7 to 15) to create a…

Interpretation of Ferroan Anorthosite Ages and Implications for the Lunar Magma Ocean

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Neal, C. R.; Draper, D. S.

2017-01-01

Ferroan Anorthosites (FANs) are considered to have purportedly crystallized directly from the lunar magma ocean (LMO) as a flotation crust. LMO modeling suggests that such anorthosites started to form only after greater than 70 percent of the LMO had crystallized. Recent age dates for FANs have questioned this hypothesis as they span too large of an age range. This means a younger age for the Moon-forming giant impact or the LMO hypothesis is flawed. However, FANs are notoriously difficult to age-date using the isochron method. We have proposed a mechanism for testing the LMO hypothesis through using plagioclase trace element abundances to calculate equilibrium liquids and compare them with LMO crystallization models. We now examine the petrography of the samples that have Sm-Nd (Samarium-Neodymium) age dates (Rb-Sr (Rubidium-Strontium) isotopic systematics may have been disturbed) and propose a relative way to age date FANs.

SIXTH INTERIM STATUS REPORT: MODEL 9975 PCV O-RING FIXTURE LONG-TERM LEAK PERFORMANCE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Daugherty, W.

2011-08-31

A series of experiments to monitor the aging performance of Viton{reg_sign} GLT O-rings used in the Model 9975 package has been ongoing for seven years at the Savannah River National Laboratory. Seventy tests using mock-ups of 9975 Primary Containment Vessels (PCVs) were assembled and heated to temperatures ranging from 200 to 450 F. They were leak-tested initially and have been tested periodically to determine if they meet the criterion of leak-tightness defined in ANSI standard N14.5-97. Fourteen additional tests were initiated in 2008 with GLT-S O-rings heated to temperatures ranging from 200 to 400 F. High temperature aging continues formore » 33 GLT O-ring fixtures at 200-300 F. Room temperature leak test failures have been experienced in all of the GLT O-ring fixtures aging at 350 F and higher temperatures, and in 7 fixtures aging at 300 F. No failures have yet been observed in GLT O-ring fixtures aging at 200 F for 41-60 months, which is still bounding to O-ring temperatures during storage in K-Area Complex (KAC). Based on expectations that the fixtures aging at 200 F will remain leak-tight for a significant period yet to come, 2 additional fixtures began aging within the past year at an intermediate temperature of 270 F, with hopes that they may leak before the 200 F fixtures. High temperature aging continues for 6 GLT-S O-ring fixtures at 200-300 F. Room temperature leak test failures have been experienced in all 8 of the GLT-S O-ring fixtures aging at 350 and 400 F. No failures have yet been observed in GLT-S O-ring fixtures aging at 200-300 F for up to 26 months. For O-ring fixtures that have failed the room temperature leak test and been disassembled, the Orings displayed a compression set ranging from 51-96%. This is greater than seen to date for packages inspected during KAC field surveillance (24% average). For GLT O-rings, separate service life estimates have been made based on the O-ring fixture leak test data and based on compression stress relaxation (CSR) data. These two predictive models show reasonable agreement at higher temperatures (350-400 F). However, at 300 F, the room temperature leak test failures to date experienced longer aging times than predicted by the CSR-based model. This suggests that extrapolations of the CSR model predictions to temperatures below 300 F will provide a conservative prediction of service life relative to the leak rate criterion. Leak test failure data at lower temperatures are needed to verify this apparent trend. Insufficient failure data exist currently to perform a similar comparison for GLT-S O-rings. Aging and periodic leak testing will continue for the remaining fixtures.« less

Prediction of battery storage ageing and solid electrolyte interphase property estimation using an electrochemical model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ashwin, T. R.; Barai, A.; Uddin, K.; Somerville, L.; McGordon, A.; Marco, J.

2018-05-01

Ageing prediction is often complicated due to the interdependency of ageing mechanisms. Research has highlighted that storage ageing is not linear with time. Capacity loss due to storing the battery at constant temperature can shed more light on parametrising the properties of the Solid Electrolyte Interphase (SEI); the identification of which, using an electrochemical model, is systematically addressed in this work. A new methodology is proposed where any one of the available storage ageing datasets can be used to find the property of the SEI layer. A sensitivity study is performed with different molecular mass and densities which are key parameters in modelling the thickness of the SEI deposit. The conductivity is adjusted to fine tune the rate of capacity fade to match experimental results. A correlation is fitted for the side reaction variation to capture the storage ageing in the 0%-100% SoC range. The methodology presented in this paper can be used to predict the unknown properties of the SEI layer which is difficult to measure experimentally. The simulation and experimental results show that the storage ageing model shows good accuracy for the cases at 50% and 90% and an acceptable agreement at 20% SoC.

Dynamic strain aging in the high-temperature low-cycle fatigue of SA508 Cl. 3 forging steel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Byung Ho; Kim, In Sup

1995-10-01

The effect of dynamic strain aging on cyclic stress response and fatigue resistance of ASME SA508 Cl.3 forging steel for nuclear reactor pressure vessels has been evaluated in the temperature range of room temperature to 500°C. Total strain ranges and strain rates were varied from 0.7 to 2.0% and from 4 × 10 -4 to 1 × 10 -2 s -1, respectively. The cyclic stress response depended on the testing temperature, strain rate, and range. Generally, the initial cyclic hardening was immediately followed by cyclic softening at all strain rates. However, at 300°C, the operating temperature of nuclear reactor pressure vessels, the variation of cyclic stress amplitude showed the primary and secondary hardening stages dependent on the strain rate and strain range. Dynamic strain aging was manifested by enhanced cyclic hardening, distinguished secondary hardening, and negative strain rate sensitivity. A modified cell shutting model was described for the onset of the secondary hardening due to the dynamic strain aging and it was in good agreement with the experimental results. Fatigue life increased in strain rate at all testing temperatures. Specifically the fatigue life was longer at the dynamic strain aging temperature. Further, the dynamic strain aging was easy to initiate the crack, while crack propagation was retarded by crack branching and suppression of plastic zone, hence the dynamic strain aging caused the improvement of fatigue resistance.

Integrated J- and H-band spectra of globular clusters in the LMC: implications for stellar population models and galaxy age dating

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lyubenova, M.; Kuntschner, H.; Rejkuba, M.; Silva, D. R.; Kissler-Patig, M.; Tacconi-Garman, L. E.

2012-07-01

Context. The rest-frame near-IR spectra of intermediate age (1-2 Gyr) stellar populations are dominated by carbon based absorption features offering a wealth of information. Yet, spectral libraries that include the near-IR wavelength range do not sample a sufficiently broad range of ages and metallicities to allow for accurate calibration of stellar population models and thus the interpretation of the observations. Aims: In this paper we investigate the integrated J- and H-band spectra of six intermediate age and old globular clusters in the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC). Methods: The observations for six clusters were obtained with the SINFONI integral field spectrograph at the ESO VLT Yepun telescope, covering the J (1.09-1.41 μm) and H-band (1.43-1.86 μm) spectral range. The spectral resolution is 6.7 Å in J and 6.6 Å in H-band (FWHM). The observations were made in natural seeing, covering the central 24″ × 24″ of each cluster and in addition sampling the brightest eight red giant branch and asymptotic giant branch (AGB) star candidates within the clusters' tidal radii. Targeted clusters cover the ages of ~1.3 Gyr (NGC 1806, NGC 2162), 2 Gyr (NGC 2173) and ~13 Gyr (NGC 1754, NGC 2005, NGC 2019). Results.H-band C2 and K-band 12CO (2-0) feature strengths for the LMC globular clusters are compared to the models of Maraston (2005). C2 is reasonably well reproduced by the models at all ages, while 12CO (2-0) shows good agreement for older (age ≥ 2 Gyr) populations, but the younger (1.3 Gyr) globular clusters do not follow the models. We argue that this is due to the fact that the empirical calibration of the models relies on only a few Milky Way carbon star spectra, which show different 12CO (2-0) index strengths than the LMC stars. The C2 absorption feature strength correlates strongly with age. It is present essentially only in populations that have 1-2 Gyr old stars, while its value is consistent with zero for older populations. The distinct spectral energy distribution observed for the intermediate age globular clusters in the J- and H-bands agrees well with the model predictions of Maraston for the contribution from the thermally pulsing AGB phase. Conclusions: In this pilot project we present an empirical library of six LMC globular cluster integrated near-IR spectra that are useful for testing stellar population models in this wavelength regime. We show that the H-band C2 absorption feature and the J-, H-band spectral shape can be used as an age indicator for intermediate age stellar populations in integrated spectra of star clusters and galaxies. Based on observation collected at the ESO Paranal La Silla Observatory, Chile, Prog. ID 078.B-0205.Table 2 is available in electronic form at http://www.aanda.orgJ- and H-spectra are only available at the CDS via anonymous ftp to cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr (130.79.128.5) or via http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr/viz-bin/qcat?J/A+A/543/A75

Age model for a continuous, ca 250-ka Quaternary lacustrine record from Bear Lake, Utah-Idaho

USGS Publications Warehouse

Colman, Steven M.; Kaufman, D.S.; Bright, Jordon; Heil, C.; King, J.W.; Dean, W.E.; Rosenbaum, J.G.; Forester, R.M.; Bischoff, J.L.; Perkins, Marie; McGeehin, J.P.

2006-01-01

The Quaternary sediments sampled by continuous 120-m-long drill cores from Bear Lake (Utah-Idaho) comprise one of the longest lacustrine sequences recovered from an extant lake. The cores serve as a good case study for the construction of an age model for sequences that extend beyond the range of radiocarbon dating. From a variety of potential age indicators, we selected a combination of radiocarbon ages, one magnetic excursion (correlated to a standard sequence), and a single Uranium-series age to develop an initial data set. The reliability of the excursion and U-series data require consideration of their position with respect to sediments of inferred interglacial character, but not direct correlation with other paleoclimate records. Data omitted from the age model include amino acid age estimates, which have a large amount of scatter, and tephrochronology correlations, which have relatively large uncertainties. Because the initial data set was restricted to the upper half of the BL00-1 core, we inferred additional ages by direct correlation to the independently dated paleoclimate record from Devils Hole. We developed an age model for the entire core using statistical methods that consider both the uncertainties of the original data and that of the curve-fitting process, with a combination of our initial data set and the climate correlations as control points. This age model represents our best estimate of the chronology of deposition in Bear Lake. Because the age model contains assumptions about the correlation of Bear Lake to other climate records, the model cannot be used to address some paleoclimate questions, such as phase relationships with other areas.

Learning Models and Real-Time Speech Recognition.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Danforth, Douglas G.; And Others

This report describes the construction and testing of two "psychological" learning models for the purpose of computer recognition of human speech over the telephone. One of the two models was found to be superior in all tests. A regression analysis yielded a 92.3% recognition rate for 14 subjects ranging in age from 6 to 13 years. Tests…

Age-related DNA methylation changes for forensic age-prediction.

PubMed

Yi, Shao Hua; Jia, Yun Shu; Mei, Kun; Yang, Rong Zhi; Huang, Dai Xin

2015-03-01

There is no available method of age-prediction for biological samples. The accumulating evidences indicate that DNA methylation patterns change with age. Aging resembles a developmentally regulated process that is tightly controlled by specific epigenetic modifications and age-associated methylation changes exist in human genome. In this study, three age-related methylation fragments were isolated and identified in blood of 40 donors. Age-related methylation changes with each fragment was validated and replicated in a general population sample of 65 donors over a wide age range (11-72 years). Methylation of these fragments is linearly correlated with age over a range of six decades (r = 0.80-0.88). Using average methylation of CpG sites of three fragments, a regression model that explained 95 % of the variance in age was built and is able to predict an individual's age with great accuracy (R (2 )= 0.93). The predicted value is highly correlated with the observed age in the sample (r = 0.96) and has great accuracy of average 4 years difference between predicted age and true age. This study implicates that DNA methylation can be an available biological marker of age-prediction. Further measurement of relevant markers in the genome could be a tool in routine screening to predict age of forensic biological samples.

Age-Specific Normal Reference Range for Serum Anti-Müllerian Hormone in Healthy Chinese Han Women: A nationwide Population-Based Study.

PubMed

Du, Xiaofang; Ding, Ting; Zhang, Hanwang; Zhang, Cuilian; Ma, Wenmin; Zhong, Ying; Qu, Wenyu; Zheng, Jie; Liu, Yi; Li, Zhiying; Huang, Kecheng; Deng, Song; Ma, Lanfang; Yang, Jun; Jiang, Jingjing; Yang, Shuhong; Huang, Jia; Wu, Meng; Fang, Li; Lu, Yunping; Luo, Aiyue; Wang, Shixuan

2016-08-01

The increasing use of anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) in clinic has raised concerns regarding the reliable reference range for this test. However, the reference range for AMH in normal Chinese female population has not been established. Furthermore, relationship between AMH and other clinical markers such as body mass index (BMI) and antral follicle counts (AFCs) and other sex-related hormones have not been examined in normal population-based women. We aimed to determine the age-specific reference range for serum AMH in healthy Chinese women throughout reproductive age to menopause and to estimate relationship between AMH and other clinical markers in healthy women. In this multicenter and nationwide study, advertisements were used to recruit 2055 women, aged 20 to 55 years, from 6 different regions in China; 1590 (77.37%) women met the inclusion criteria for the reference range population. We measured the baseline serum AMH levels using new Beckman Coulter Gen II assay. Serum concentration of follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH), luteinizing hormone (LH), estradiol (E2), testosterone (T), prolactin (PRL), progesterone (PRG), and AFCs were also determined in the follicular phase. The AMH-Age nomogram and AMH levels of different age-groups and the relationship between AMH and other clinical markers. Serum AMH concentrations declined progressively with age. A quadratic model defined as log (AMH) = (-1.970 + 0.296 × Age - 0.006 × Age(2)) fitted best the decline of AMH with age. The median AMH levels were 6.23, 5.65, 4.55, 3.74, 2.78, and 1.09 ng/mL for the 20 ≤ age < 25, 25 ≤ age < 30, 30 ≤ age < 33, 33 ≤ age < 37, 37 ≤ age < 40, and 40 ≤ age < 55 groups, respectively. The 5th to 95th percentiles of the AMH levels, as the reference range, were 2.06 to 12.66, 1.77 to 13.83, 1.48 to 11.45, 0.87 to 9.76, 0.56 to 9.49, and 0.08 to 5.70 ng/mL for each age-group. The AMH levels were positively correlated with AFCs and T, LH, PRL and PRG levels and negatively correlated with BMI and FSH levels and were not significantly correlated with E2 levels. The relationship between AMH and other variables remain unchanged except for PRL, which was not significantly correlated with AMH levels after controlling for both age and BMI. This study determined the normal reference ranges for serum AMH levels in a large population-based sample of healthy Chinese women. © The Author(s) 2016.

Chronological Age, Cognitions, and Practices in European American Mothers: A Multivariate Study of Parenting

PubMed Central

Bornstein, Marc H.; Putnick, Diane L.

2018-01-01

We studied multiple parenting cognitions and practices in European American mothers (N = 262) who ranged in age from 15 to 47 years. All were first-time parents of 20-month-old children. Some age effects were zero; others were linear or nonlinear. Nonlinear age effects determined by spline regression showed significant associations to a “knot” age (~30 years) with little or no association afterward. For parenting cognitions and practices that are age-sensitive, a two-phase model of parental development is proposed. These findings stress the importance of considering maternal chronological age as a factor in developmental study. PMID:17605519

The effects of age and gender on sleep EEG power spectral density in the middle years of life (ages 20-60 years old)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carrier, J.; Land, S.; Buysse, D. J.; Kupfer, D. J.; Monk, T. H.

2001-01-01

The effects of age and gender on sleep EEG power spectral density were assessed in a group of 100 subjects aged 20 to 60 years. We propose a new statistical strategy (mixed-model using fixed-knot regression splines) to analyze quantitative EEG measures. The effect of gender varied according to frequency, but no interactions emerged between age and gender, suggesting that the aging process does not differentially influence men and women. Women had higher power density than men in delta, theta, low alpha, and high spindle frequency range. The effect of age varied according to frequency and across the night. The decrease in power with age was not restricted to slow-wave activity, but also included theta and sigma activity. With increasing age, the attenuation over the night in power density between 1.25 and 8.00 Hz diminished, and the rise in power between 12.25 and 14.00 Hz across the night decreased. Increasing age was associated with higher power in the beta range. These results suggest that increasing age may be related to an attenuation of homeostatic sleep pressure and to an increase in cortical activation during sleep.

Aged boreal biomass-burning aerosol size distributions from BORTAS 2011

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sakamoto, K. M.; Allan, J. D.; Coe, H.; Taylor, J. W.; Duck, T. J.; Pierce, J. R.

2015-02-01

Biomass-burning aerosols contribute to aerosol radiative forcing on the climate system. The magnitude of this effect is partially determined by aerosol size distributions, which are functions of source fire characteristics (e.g. fuel type, MCE) and in-plume microphysical processing. The uncertainties in biomass-burning emission number-size distributions in climate model inventories lead to uncertainties in the CCN (cloud condensation nuclei) concentrations and forcing estimates derived from these models. The BORTAS-B (Quantifying the impact of BOReal forest fires on Tropospheric oxidants over the Atlantic using Aircraft and Satellite) measurement campaign was designed to sample boreal biomass-burning outflow over eastern Canada in the summer of 2011. Using these BORTAS-B data, we implement plume criteria to isolate the characteristic size distribution of aged biomass-burning emissions (aged ~ 1-2 days) from boreal wildfires in northwestern Ontario. The composite median size distribution yields a single dominant accumulation mode with Dpm = 230 nm (number-median diameter) and σ = 1.5, which are comparable to literature values of other aged plumes of a similar type. The organic aerosol enhancement ratios (ΔOA / ΔCO) along the path of Flight b622 show values of 0.09-0.17 μg m-3 ppbv-1 (parts per billion by volume) with no significant trend with distance from the source. This lack of enhancement ratio increase/decrease with distance suggests no detectable net OA (organic aerosol) production/evaporation within the aged plume over the sampling period (plume age: 1-2 days), though it does not preclude OA production/loss at earlier stages. A Lagrangian microphysical model was used to determine an estimate of the freshly emitted size distribution corresponding to the BORTAS-B aged size distributions. The model was restricted to coagulation and dilution processes based on the insignificant net OA production/evaporation derived from the ΔOA / ΔCO enhancement ratios. We estimate that the young-plume median diameter was in the range of 59-94 nm with modal widths in the range of 1.7-2.8 (the ranges are due to uncertainty in the entrainment rate). Thus, the size of the freshly emitted particles is relatively unconstrained due to the uncertainties in the plume dilution rates.

Geographic extension of an uneven-aged, multi-species matrix growth model for northern hardwood forests

Treesearch

Audra E. Kolbe; Joseph Buongiorno; Michael Vasievich

1999-01-01

The objective of this study was to update and extend the geographic range of a forest growth model for northern hardwoods, developed previously with data from the fourth Wisconsin inventory (Lin et al., 1996. Ecol. Model., 91: 193-211.). To this end, Lin's model was recalibrated with data from the recent fifth inventory of Wisconsin and Michigan, and with the...

Assessing the Influence of Traffic-related Air Pollution on Risk of Term Low Birth Weight on the Basis of Land-Use-based Regression Models and Measures of Air Toxics

PubMed Central

Ghosh, Jo Kay C.; Wilhelm, Michelle; Su, Jason; Goldberg, Daniel; Cockburn, Myles; Jerrett, Michael; Ritz, Beate

2012-01-01

Few studies have examined associations of birth outcomes with toxic air pollutants (air toxics) in traffic exhaust. This study included 8,181 term low birth weight (LBW) children and 370,922 term normal-weight children born between January 1, 1995, and December 31, 2006, to women residing within 5 miles (8 km) of an air toxics monitoring station in Los Angeles County, California. Additionally, land-use-based regression (LUR)-modeled estimates of levels of nitric oxide, nitrogen dioxide, and nitrogen oxides were used to assess the influence of small-area variations in traffic pollution. The authors examined associations with term LBW (≥37 weeks’ completed gestation and birth weight <2,500 g) using logistic regression adjusted for maternal age, race/ethnicity, education, parity, infant gestational age, and gestational age squared. Odds of term LBW increased 2%–5% (95% confidence intervals ranged from 1.00 to 1.09) per interquartile-range increase in LUR-modeled estimates and monitoring-based air toxics exposure estimates in the entire pregnancy, the third trimester, and the last month of pregnancy. Models stratified by monitoring station (to investigate air toxics associations based solely on temporal variations) resulted in 2%–5% increased odds per interquartile-range increase in third-trimester benzene, toluene, ethyl benzene, and xylene exposures, with some confidence intervals containing the null value. This analysis highlights the importance of both spatial and temporal contributions to air pollution in epidemiologic birth outcome studies. PMID:22586068

Assessing the influence of traffic-related air pollution on risk of term low birth weight on the basis of land-use-based regression models and measures of air toxics.

PubMed

Ghosh, Jo Kay C; Wilhelm, Michelle; Su, Jason; Goldberg, Daniel; Cockburn, Myles; Jerrett, Michael; Ritz, Beate

2012-06-15

Few studies have examined associations of birth outcomes with toxic air pollutants (air toxics) in traffic exhaust. This study included 8,181 term low birth weight (LBW) children and 370,922 term normal-weight children born between January 1, 1995, and December 31, 2006, to women residing within 5 miles (8 km) of an air toxics monitoring station in Los Angeles County, California. Additionally, land-use-based regression (LUR)-modeled estimates of levels of nitric oxide, nitrogen dioxide, and nitrogen oxides were used to assess the influence of small-area variations in traffic pollution. The authors examined associations with term LBW (≥37 weeks' completed gestation and birth weight <2,500 g) using logistic regression adjusted for maternal age, race/ethnicity, education, parity, infant gestational age, and gestational age squared. Odds of term LBW increased 2%-5% (95% confidence intervals ranged from 1.00 to 1.09) per interquartile-range increase in LUR-modeled estimates and monitoring-based air toxics exposure estimates in the entire pregnancy, the third trimester, and the last month of pregnancy. Models stratified by monitoring station (to investigate air toxics associations based solely on temporal variations) resulted in 2%-5% increased odds per interquartile-range increase in third-trimester benzene, toluene, ethyl benzene, and xylene exposures, with some confidence intervals containing the null value. This analysis highlights the importance of both spatial and temporal contributions to air pollution in epidemiologic birth outcome studies.

Carotid artery intima-media complex thickening in patients with relatively long-surviving type 1 diabetes mellitus.

PubMed

Distiller, Larry A; Joffe, Barry I; Melville, Vanessa; Welman, Tania; Distiller, Greg B

2006-01-01

The factors responsible for premature coronary atherosclerosis in patients with type 1 diabetes are ill defined. We therefore assessed carotid intima-media complex thickness (IMT) in relatively long-surviving patients with type 1 diabetes as a marker of atherosclerosis and correlated this with traditional risk factors. Cross-sectional study of 148 patients with relatively long-surviving (>18 years) type 1 diabetes (76 men and 72 women) attending the Centre for Diabetes and Endocrinology, Johannesburg. The mean common carotid artery IMT and presence or absence of plaque was evaluated by high-resolution B-mode ultrasound. Their median age was 48 years and duration of diabetes 26 years (range 18-59 years). Traditional risk factors (age, duration of diabetes, glycemic control, hypertension, smoking and lipoprotein concentrations) were recorded. Three response variables were defined and modeled. Standard multiple regression was used for a continuous IMT variable, logistic regression for the presence/absence of plaque and ordinal logistic regression to model three categories of "risk." The median common carotid IMT was 0.62 mm (range 0.44-1.23 mm) with plaque detected in 28 cases. The multiple regression model found significant associations between IMT and current age (P=.001), duration of diabetes (P=.033), BMI (P=.008) and diagnosed hypertension (P=.046) with HDL showing a protective effect (P=.022). Current age (P=.001) and diagnosed hypertension (P=.004), smoking (P=.008) and retinopathy (P=.033) were significant in the logistic regression model. Current age was also significant in the ordinal logistic regression model (P<.001), as was total cholesterol/HDL ratio (P<.001) and mean HbA(1c) concentration (P=.073). The major factors influencing common carotid IMT in patients with relatively long-surviving type 1 diabetes are age, duration of diabetes, existing hypertension and HDL (protective) with a relatively minor role ascribed to relatively long-standing glycemic control.

Parental feeding practices in families with children aged 2-13 years: Psychometric properties and child age-specific norms of the German version of the Child Feeding Questionnaire (CFQ).

PubMed

Schmidt, Ricarda; Richter, Robert; Brauhardt, Anne; Hiemisch, Andreas; Kiess, Wieland; Hilbert, Anja

2017-02-01

The Child Feeding Questionnaire (CFQ) is a self-report questionnaire for assessing parental attitudes to child weight and parental feeding practices. Previous evaluations of its psychometric properties were conducted primarily with small to medium-sized samples (N < 500) and a small range of children's age. The present study aims to analyze the psychometric properties of the CFQ in a large German community sample and, for the first time, to establish normative data. Within the population-based LIFE Child study, the CFQ was administered to N = 982 mothers of 2- to 13-year-old children. Psychometric analyses on item statistics and internal consistency were conducted. Using structural equation modeling, four empirically-based factorial models of the CFQ were evaluated, and measurement invariance across child age groups and sex was examined. Age-specific norms for the CFQ subscales were computed. Item statistics were highly favorable for the majority of items, but floor and ceiling effects were found for 14 of 31 items. Internal consistency of the CFQ subscales ranged from acceptable to excellent (0.71 ≤ α ≤ 0.91), except for the subscale Perceived Responsibility (α = 0.65). Regarding factorial validity, an eight-factor model with the newly created Reward subscale provided the best fit to the data. This model was factorial invariant across child sex and adjacent age groups. Maternal and child weight status showed large effects on CFQ subscale scores. The analyses established good psychometric properties for the German version of the CFQ and confirmed an eight-factor model. The provided norms allow for the comparison of individual parental feeding practices and change over time. The CFQ's sensitivity to change and longitudinal associations of parental feeding practices and child weight status warrant further research. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Repeatability of stance phase kinematics from a multi-segment foot model in people aged 50 years and older.

PubMed

Arnold, John B; Mackintosh, Shylie; Jones, Sara; Thewlis, Dominic

2013-06-01

Confidence in 3D multi-segment foot models has been limited by a lack of repeatability data, particularly in older populations that may display unique functional foot characteristics. This study aimed to determine the intra and inter-observer repeatability of stance phase kinematic data from a multi-segment foot model described by Leardini et al. [2] in people aged 50 years or older. Twenty healthy adults participated (mean age 65.4 years SD 8.4). A repeated measures study design was used with data collected from four testing sessions on two days from two observers. Intra (within-day and between-day) and inter-observer coefficient of multiple correlations revealed moderate to excellent similarity of stance phase joint range of motion (0.621-0.975). Relative to the joint range of motion (ROM), mean differences (MD) between sessions were highest for the within-day comparison for all planar ROM at the metatarsus-midfoot articulation (sagittal plane ROM 5.2° vs. 3.9°, MD 3.1°; coronal plane ROM 3.9 vs. 3.1°, MD 2.3°; transverse plane ROM 6.8° vs. 5.16°, MD 3.5°). Consequently, data from the metatarsus-midfoot articulation in the Istituto Ortopedico Rizzoli (IOR) foot model in adults aged over 50 years needs to be considered with respect to the findings of this study. Crown Copyright © 2012. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

How good a clock is rotation? The stellar rotation-mass-age relationship for old field stars

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Epstein, Courtney R.; Pinsonneault, Marc H., E-mail: epstein@astronomy.ohio-state.edu, E-mail: pinsono@astronomy.ohio-state.edu

2014-01-10

The rotation-mass-age relationship offers a promising avenue for measuring the ages of field stars, assuming the attendant uncertainties to this technique can be well characterized. We model stellar angular momentum evolution starting with a rotation distribution from open cluster M37. Our predicted rotation-mass-age relationship shows significant zero-point offsets compared to an alternative angular momentum loss law and published gyrochronology relations. Systematic errors at the 30% level are permitted by current data, highlighting the need for empirical guidance. We identify two fundamental sources of uncertainty that limit the precision of rotation-based ages and quantify their impact. Stars are born with amore » range of rotation rates, which leads to an age range at fixed rotation period. We find that the inherent ambiguity from the initial conditions is important for all young stars, and remains large for old stars below 0.6 M {sub ☉}. Latitudinal surface differential rotation also introduces a minimum uncertainty into rotation period measurements and, by extension, rotation-based ages. Both models and the data from binary star systems 61 Cyg and α Cen demonstrate that latitudinal differential rotation is the limiting factor for rotation-based age precision among old field stars, inducing uncertainties at the ∼2 Gyr level. We also examine the relationship between variability amplitude, rotation period, and age. Existing ground-based surveys can detect field populations with ages as old as 1-2 Gyr, while space missions can detect stars as old as the Galactic disk. In comparison with other techniques for measuring the ages of lower main sequence stars, including geometric parallax and asteroseismology, rotation-based ages have the potential to be the most precise chronometer for 0.6-1.0 M {sub ☉} stars.« less

Extraction and development of inset models in support of groundwater age calculations for glacial aquifers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Feinstein, Daniel T.; Kauffman, Leon J.; Haserodt, Megan J.; Clark, Brian R.; Juckem, Paul F.

2018-06-22

The U.S. Geological Survey developed a regional model of Lake Michigan Basin (LMB). This report describes the construction of five MODFLOW inset models extracted from the LMB regional model and their application using the particle-tracking code MODPATH to simulate the groundwater age distribution of discharge to wells pumping from glacial deposits. The five study areas of the inset model correspond to 8-digit hydrologic unit code (HUC8) basins. Two of the basins are tributary to Lake Michigan from the east, two are tributary to the lake from the west, and one is just west of the western boundary of the Lake Michigan topographic basin. The inset models inherited many of the inputs to the parent LMB model, including the hydrostratigraphy and layering scheme, the hydraulic conductivity assigned to bedrock layers, recharge distribution, and water use in the form of pumping rates from glacial and bedrock wells. The construction of the inset models entailed modifying some inputs, most notably the grid spacing (reduced from cells 5,000 feet on a side in the parent LMB model to 500 feet on a side in the inset models). The refined grid spacing allowed for more precise location of pumped wells and more detailed simulation of groundwater/surface-water interactions. The glacial hydraulic conductivity values, the top bedrock surface elevation, and the surface-water network input to the inset models also were modified. The inset models are solved using the MODFLOW–NWT code, which allows for more robust handling of conditions in unconfined aquifers than previous versions of MODFLOW. Comparison of the MODFLOW inset models reveals that they incorporate a range of hydrogeologic conditions relative to the glacial part of the flow system, demonstrated by visualization and analysis of model inputs and outputs and reflected in the range of ages generated by MODPATH for existing and hypothetical glacial wells. Certain inputs and outputs are judged to be candidate predictors that, if treated statistically, may be capable of explaining much of the variance in the simulated age metrics. One example of a predictor that model results indicate strongly affects simulated age is the depth of the well open interval below the simulated water table. The strength of this example variable as an overall predictor of groundwater age and its relation to other predictors can be statistically tested through the metamodeling process. In this way the inset models are designed to serve as a training area for metamodels that estimate groundwater age in glacial wells, which in turn will contribute to ongoing studies, under the direction of the U.S. Geological Survey National Water Quality Assessment, of contaminant susceptibility of shallow groundwater across the glacial aquifer system.

FIFTH STATUS REPORT: TESTING OF AGED SOFTWOOD FIBERBOARD MATERIAL FOR THE 9975 SHIPPING PACKAGE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Daugherty, W.; Skidmore, E.; Dunn, K.

Samples have been prepared from a 9975 lower fiberboard subassembly fabricated from softwood fiberboard. Physical, mechanical and thermal properties have been measured following varying periods of conditioning in each of several environments. These tests have been conducted in the same manner as previous testing on cane fiberboard samples. Overall, similar aging trends are observed for softwood and cane fiberboard samples, with a few differences. Some softwood fiberboard properties tend to degrade faster in elevated humidity environments, while some cane fiberboard properties degrade faster in the hotter dry environments. As a result, it is premature to assume both materials will agemore » at the same rates, and the preliminary aging models developed for cane fiberboard might not apply to softwood fiberboard. However, it is expected that both cane and softwood fiberboard assemblies will perform satisfactorily in conforming packages stored in a typical KAC storage environment for up to 15 years. Aging and testing of softwood fiberboard will continue and additional data will be collected. Additional samples will be added to each aging environment, to support development of an aging model specific to softwood fiberboard. Post-conditioning data have been measured on samples from a single softwood fiberboard assembly, and baseline data are also available from a limited number of vendor-provided samples. This provides minimal information on the possible sample-to-sample variation exhibited by softwood fiberboard. Data to date are generally consistent with the range seen in cane fiberboard, but some portions of the data trends are skewed toward the lower end of that range. Two additional softwood fiberboard source packages have been obtained and will begin to provide data on the range of variability of this material.« less

XRD-based 40Ar/39Ar age correction for fine-grained illite, with application to folded carbonates in the Monterrey Salient (northern Mexico)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fitz-Díaz, Elisa; Hall, Chris M.; van der Pluijm, Ben A.

2016-05-01

Due to their minute size, 40Ar/39Ar analysis of illite faces significant analytical challenges, including mineral characterization and, especially, effects of grain size and crystallography on 39Ar recoil. Quantifying the effects of 39Ar recoil requires the use of sample vacuum encapsulation during irradiation, which permits the measurement of the fraction of recoiled 39Ar as well as the 39Ar and 40Ar∗ retained within illite crystals that are released during step heating. Total-Gas Ages (TGA) are calculated by using both recoiled and retained argon, which is functionally equivalent to K-Ar ages, while Retention Ages (RA) only involve retained Ar in the crystal. Natural applications have shown that TGA fits stratigraphic constraints of geological processes when the average illite crystallite thickness (ICT) is smaller than 10 nm, and that RA matches these constraints for ICTs larger than 50 nm. We propose a new age correction method that takes into account the average ICT and corresponding recoiled 39Ar for a sample, with X-ray Corrected Ages (XCA) lying between Total-Gas and Retention Ages depending on ICT. This correction is particularly useful in samples containing authigenic illite formed in the anchizone, with typical ICT values between 10 and 50 nm. In three samples containing authigenic illite from Cretaceous carbonates in the Monterrey Salient in northern Mexico, there is a range in TGAs among the different size-fractions of 46-49, 36-43 and 40-52 Ma, while RAs range from 54-64, 47-52 and 53-54 Ma, respectively. XCA calculations produce tighter age ranges for these samples of 52.5-56, 45.5-48.5 and 49-52.5 Ma, respectively. In an apparent age vs ICT or %2M 1illite plot, authigenic illite grains show a slope that is in general slightly positive for TGA, slightly negative for RA, but close to zero for XCA, with thinner crystallites showing more dispersion than thicker ones. In order to test if dispersion is due to a different formation history or the result of retention capability, degassing spectra were modeled for site XCA averages and overall XCA average. Modeling shows that local site age average best match the measured spectra, instead of a global average age, indicating that illite growth reflects local deformation, and is not the result of regional metamorphism. Modeling also shows that Ar-degassing spectra are very sensitive to grain size, such that age interpretation based on Ar-plateaus is meaningless for most fine-grained clays.

Item Response Theory Analyses of the Cambridge Face Memory Test (CFMT)

PubMed Central

Cho, Sun-Joo; Wilmer, Jeremy; Herzmann, Grit; McGugin, Rankin; Fiset, Daniel; Van Gulick, Ana E.; Ryan, Katie; Gauthier, Isabel

2014-01-01

We evaluated the psychometric properties of the Cambridge face memory test (CFMT; Duchaine & Nakayama, 2006). First, we assessed the dimensionality of the test with a bi-factor exploratory factor analysis (EFA). This EFA analysis revealed a general factor and three specific factors clustered by targets of CFMT. However, the three specific factors appeared to be minor factors that can be ignored. Second, we fit a unidimensional item response model. This item response model showed that the CFMT items could discriminate individuals at different ability levels and covered a wide range of the ability continuum. We found the CFMT to be particularly precise for a wide range of ability levels. Third, we implemented item response theory (IRT) differential item functioning (DIF) analyses for each gender group and two age groups (Age ≤ 20 versus Age > 21). This DIF analysis suggested little evidence of consequential differential functioning on the CFMT for these groups, supporting the use of the test to compare older to younger, or male to female, individuals. Fourth, we tested for a gender difference on the latent facial recognition ability with an explanatory item response model. We found a significant but small gender difference on the latent ability for face recognition, which was higher for women than men by 0.184, at age mean 23.2, controlling for linear and quadratic age effects. Finally, we discuss the practical considerations of the use of total scores versus IRT scale scores in applications of the CFMT. PMID:25642930

Performance of a postnatal metabolic gestational age algorithm: a retrospective validation study among ethnic subgroups in Canada

PubMed Central

Hawken, Steven; Ducharme, Robin; Murphy, Malia S Q; Atkinson, Katherine M; Potter, Beth K; Chakraborty, Pranesh; Wilson, Kumanan

2017-01-01

Objectives Biological modelling of routinely collected newborn screening data has emerged as a novel method for deriving postnatal gestational age estimates. Validation of published models has previously been limited to cohorts largely consisting of infants of white Caucasian ethnicity. In this study, we sought to determine the validity of a published gestational age estimation algorithm among recent immigrants to Canada, where maternal landed immigrant status was used as a surrogate measure of infant ethnicity. Design We conducted a retrospective validation study in infants born in Ontario between April 2009 and September 2011. Setting Provincial data from Ontario, Canada were obtained from the Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences. Participants The dataset included 230 034 infants born to non-landed immigrants and 70 098 infants born to immigrant mothers. The five most common countries of maternal origin were India (n=10 038), China (n=7468), Pakistan (n=5824), The Philippines (n=5441) and Vietnam (n=1408). Maternal country of origin was obtained from Citizenship and Immigration Canada’s Landed Immigrant Database. Primary and secondary outcome measures Performance of a postnatal gestational age algorithm was evaluated across non-immigrant and immigrant populations. Results Root mean squared error (RMSE) of 1.05 weeks was observed for infants born to non-immigrant mothers, whereas RMSE ranged from 0.98 to 1.15 weeks among infants born to immigrant mothers. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for distinguishing term versus preterm infants (≥37 vs <37 weeks gestational age or >34 vs ≤34 weeks gestational age) was 0.958 and 0.986, respectively, in the non-immigrant subgroup and ranged from 0.927 to 0.964 and 0.966 to 0.99 in the immigrant subgroups. Conclusions Algorithms for postnatal determination of gestational age may be further refined by development and validation of region or ethnicity-specific models. However, our results provide reassurance that an algorithm developed from Ontario-born infant cohorts performs well across a range of ethnicities and maternal countries of origin without modification. PMID:28871012

Performance of a postnatal metabolic gestational age algorithm: a retrospective validation study among ethnic subgroups in Canada.

PubMed

Hawken, Steven; Ducharme, Robin; Murphy, Malia S Q; Atkinson, Katherine M; Potter, Beth K; Chakraborty, Pranesh; Wilson, Kumanan

2017-09-03

Biological modelling of routinely collected newborn screening data has emerged as a novel method for deriving postnatal gestational age estimates. Validation of published models has previously been limited to cohorts largely consisting of infants of white Caucasian ethnicity. In this study, we sought to determine the validity of a published gestational age estimation algorithm among recent immigrants to Canada, where maternal landed immigrant status was used as a surrogate measure of infant ethnicity. We conducted a retrospective validation study in infants born in Ontario between April 2009 and September 2011. Provincial data from Ontario, Canada were obtained from the Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences. The dataset included 230 034 infants born to non-landed immigrants and 70 098 infants born to immigrant mothers. The five most common countries of maternal origin were India (n=10 038), China (n=7468), Pakistan (n=5824), The Philippines (n=5441) and Vietnam (n=1408). Maternal country of origin was obtained from Citizenship and Immigration Canada's Landed Immigrant Database. Performance of a postnatal gestational age algorithm was evaluated across non-immigrant and immigrant populations. Root mean squared error (RMSE) of 1.05 weeks was observed for infants born to non-immigrant mothers, whereas RMSE ranged from 0.98 to 1.15 weeks among infants born to immigrant mothers. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for distinguishing term versus preterm infants (≥37 vs <37 weeks gestational age or >34 vs ≤34 weeks gestational age) was 0.958 and 0.986, respectively, in the non-immigrant subgroup and ranged from 0.927 to 0.964 and 0.966 to 0.99 in the immigrant subgroups. Algorithms for postnatal determination of gestational age may be further refined by development and validation of region or ethnicity-specific models. However, our results provide reassurance that an algorithm developed from Ontario-born infant cohorts performs well across a range of ethnicities and maternal countries of origin without modification. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

The CIRCORT database: Reference ranges and seasonal changes in diurnal salivary cortisol derived from a meta-dataset comprised of 15 field studies.

PubMed

Miller, Robert; Stalder, Tobias; Jarczok, Marc; Almeida, David M; Badrick, Ellena; Bartels, Meike; Boomsma, Dorret I; Coe, Christopher L; Dekker, Marieke C J; Donzella, Bonny; Fischer, Joachim E; Gunnar, Megan R; Kumari, Meena; Lederbogen, Florian; Power, Christine; Ryff, Carol D; Subramanian, S V; Tiemeier, Henning; Watamura, Sarah E; Kirschbaum, Clemens

2016-11-01

Diurnal salivary cortisol profiles are valuable indicators of adrenocortical functioning in epidemiological research and clinical practice. However, normative reference values derived from a large number of participants and across a wide age range are still missing. To fill this gap, data were compiled from 15 independently conducted field studies with a total of 104,623 salivary cortisol samples obtained from 18,698 unselected individuals (mean age: 48.3 years, age range: 0.5-98.5 years, 39% females). Besides providing a descriptive analysis of the complete dataset, we also performed mixed-effects growth curve modeling of diurnal salivary cortisol (i.e., 1-16h after awakening). Cortisol decreased significantly across the day and was influenced by both, age and sex. Intriguingly, we also found a pronounced impact of sampling season with elevated diurnal cortisol in spring and decreased levels in autumn. However, the majority of variance was accounted for by between-participant and between-study variance components. Based on these analyses, reference ranges (LC/MS-MS calibrated) for cortisol concentrations in saliva were derived for different times across the day, with more specific reference ranges generated for males and females in different age categories. This integrative summary provides important reference values on salivary cortisol to aid basic scientists and clinicians in interpreting deviations from the normal diurnal cycle. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Floodplain dynamics control the age distribution of organic carbon in large rivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Torres, M. A.; Limaye, A. B. S.; Ganti, V.; West, A. J.; Fischer, W. W.; Lamb, M. P.

2016-12-01

As sediments transit through river systems, they are temporarily stored within floodplains. This storage is important for geochemical cycles because it imparts a certain cadence to weathering processes and organic carbon cycling. However, the time and length scales over which these processes operate are poorly known. To address this, we developed a model for the distribution of storage times in floodplains and used it to make predictions of the age distribution of riverine particulate organic carbon (POC) that can be compared with data from a range of rivers.Using statistics generated from a numerical model of river meandering that accounts for the rates of lateral channel migration and the lengths of channel needed to exchange the sediment flux with the floodplain, we estimated the distribution of sediment storage times. Importantly, this approach consistently yields a heavy-tailed distribution of storage times. This finding, based on comprehensive simulations of a wide range of river conditions, arises because of geometrical constraints that lead to the preferential erosion and reworking of young deposits. To benchmark our model, we compared our results with meteoric 10Be data (a storage time proxy) from Amazonian rivers. Our model correctly predicts observed 10Be concentrations, and consequently appears to capture the correct characteristic timescales associated with floodplain storage. By coupling a simple model of carbon cycling with our floodplain storage model, we are able to make predictions about the radiocarbon content of riverine POC. We observe that floodplains with greater storage times tend to have biospheric POC with a lower radiocarbon content (after correcting bulk ages for contribution from radiocarbon-dead petrogenic carbon). This result confirms that storage plays a key role in setting the age of POC transported by rivers with important implications for the dynamics of the global carbon cycle.

High fidelity computational characterization of the mechanical response of thermally aged polycarbonate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Zesheng; Zhang, Lili; Jasa, John; Li, Wenlong; Gazonas, George; Negahban, Mehrdad

2017-07-01

A representative all-atom molecular dynamics (MD) system of polycarbonate (PC) is built and conditioned to capture and predict the behaviours of PC in response to a broad range of thermo-mechanical loadings for various thermal aging. The PC system is constructed to have a distribution of molecular weights comparable to a widely used commercial PC (LEXAN 9034), and thermally conditioned to produce models for aged and unaged PC. The MD responses of these models are evaluated through comparisons to existing experimental results carried out at much lower loading rates, but done over a broad range of temperatures and loading modes. These experiments include monotonic extension/compression/shear, unilaterally and bilaterally confined compression, and load-reversal during shear. It is shown that the MD simulations show both qualitative and quantitative similarity with the experimental response. The quantitative similarity is evaluated by comparing the dilatational response under bilaterally confined compression, the shear flow viscosity and the equivalent yield stress. The consistency of the in silico response to real laboratory experiments strongly suggests that the current PC models are physically and mechanically relevant and potentially can be used to investigate thermo-mechanical response to loading conditions that would not easily be possible. These MD models may provide valuable insight into the molecular sources of certain observations, and could possibly offer new perspectives on how to develop constitutive models that are based on better understanding the response of PC under complex loadings. To this latter end, the models are used to predict the response of PC to complex loading modes that would normally be difficult to do or that include characteristics that would be difficult to measure. These include the responses of unaged and aged PC to unilaterally confined extension/compression, cyclic uniaxial/shear loadings, and saw-tooth extension/compression/shear.

Age affects severity of venous gas emboli on decompression from 14.7 to 4.3 psia

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Conkin, Johnny; Powell, Michael R.; Gernhardt, Michael L.

2003-01-01

INTRODUCTION: Variables that define who we are, such as age, weight and fitness level influence the risk of decompression sickness (DCS) and venous gas emboli (VGE) from diving and aviation decompressions. We focus on age since astronauts that perform space walks are approximately 10 yr older than our test subjects. Our null hypothesis is that age is not statistically associated with the VGE outcomes from decompression to 4.3 psia. METHODS: Our data are from 7 different NASA tests where 188 men and 50 women performed light exercise at 4.3 psia for planned exposures no less than 4 h. Prebreathe (PB) time on 100% oxygen ranged from 150-270 min, including ascent time, with exercise of different intensity and length being performed during the PB in four of the seven tests with 150 min of PB. Subjects were monitored for VGE in the pulmonary artery using a Doppler ultrasound bubble detector for a 4-min period every 12 min. There were six design variables; the presence or absence of lower body adynamia and five PB variables; plus five concomitant variables on physical characteristics: age, weight height, body mass index, and gender that were available for logistic regression (LR). We used LR models for the probability of DCS and VGE, and multinomial logit (ML) models for the probability of Spencer VGE Grades 0-IV at exposure times of 61, 95, 131, 183 min, and for the entire exposure. RESULTS: Age was significantly associated with VGE in both the LR and ML models, so we reject the null hypothesis. Lower body adynamia was significant for all responses. CONCLUSIONS: Our selection of tests produced a wide range of the explanatory variables, but only age, lower body adynamia, height, and total PB time was helpful in various combinations to model the probability of DCS and VGE.

SEVENTH INTERIM STATUS REPORT: MODEL 9975 PCV O-RING FIXTURE LONG-TERM LEAK PERFORMANCE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Daugherty, W.

2012-08-30

A series of experiments to monitor the aging performance of Viton® GLT O-rings used in the Model 9975 package has been ongoing since 2004 at the Savannah River National Laboratory. Seventy tests using mock-ups of 9975 Primary Containment Vessels (PCVs) were assembled and heated to temperatures ranging from 200 to 450 ºF. They were leak-tested initially and have been tested periodically to determine if they meet the criterion of leak-tightness defined in ANSI standard N14.5-97. Fourteen additional tests were initiated in 2008 with GLT-S O-rings heated to temperatures ranging from 200 to 400 ºF. High temperature aging continues for 23more » GLT O-ring fixtures at 200 – 270 ºF. Room temperature leak test failures have been experienced in all of the GLT O-ring fixtures aging at 350 ºF and higher temperatures, and in 8 fixtures aging at 300 ºF. The remaining GLT O-ring fixtures aging at 300 ºF have been retired from testing following more than 5 years at temperature without failure. No failures have yet been observed in GLT O-ring fixtures aging at 200 ºF for 54-72 months, which is still bounding to O-ring temperatures during storage in K-Area Complex (KAC). Based on expectations that the fixtures aging at 200 ºF will remain leak-tight for a significant period yet to come, 2 additional fixtures began aging in 2011 at an intermediate temperature of 270 ºF, with hopes that they may reach a failure condition before the 200 ºF fixtures. High temperature aging continues for 6 GLT-S O-ring fixtures at 200 – 300 ºF. Room temperature leak test failures have been experienced in all 8 of the GLT-S O-ring fixtures aging at 350 and 400 ºF. No failures have yet been observed in GLT-S O-ring fixtures aging at 200 - 300 ºF for 30 - 36 months. For O-ring fixtures that have failed the room temperature leak test and been disassembled, the O-rings displayed a compression set ranging from 51 – 96%. This is greater than seen to date for any packages inspected during KAC field surveillance (24% average). For GLT O-rings, separate service life estimates have been made based on the O-ring fixture leak test data and based on compression stress relaxation (CSR) data. These two predictive models show reasonable agreement at higher temperatures (350 – 400 ºF). However, at 300 ºF, the room temperature leak test failures to date experienced longer aging times than predicted by the CSRbased model. This suggests that extrapolations of the CSR model predictions to temperatures below 300 ºF will provide a conservative prediction of service life relative to the leak rate criterion. Leak test failure data at lower temperatures are needed to verify this apparent trend. Insufficient failure data exist currently to perform a similar comparison for GLT-S O-rings. Aging and periodic leak testing will continue for the remaining PCV O-ring fixtures.« less

The process of learning in neural net models with Poisson and Gauss connectivities.

PubMed

Sivridis, L; Kotini, A; Anninos, P

2008-01-01

In this study we examined the dynamic behavior of isolated and non-isolated neural networks with chemical markers that follow a Poisson or Gauss distribution of connectivity. The Poisson distribution shows higher activity in comparison to the Gauss distribution although the latter has more connections that obliterated due to randomness. We examined 57 hematoxylin and eosin stained sections from an equal number of autopsy specimens with a diagnosis of "cerebral matter within normal limits". Neural counting was carried out in 5 continuous optic fields, with the use of a simple optical microscope connected to a computer (software programmer Nikon Act-1 vers-2). The number of neurons that corresponded to a surface was equal to 0.15 mm(2). There was a gradual reduction in the number of neurons as age increased. A mean value of 45.8 neurons /0.15 mm(2) was observed within the age range 21-25, 33 neurons /0.15 mm(2) within the age range 41-45, 19.3 neurons /0.15 mm(2) within the age range 56-60 years. After the age of 60 it was observed that the number of neurons per unit area stopped decreasing. A correlation was observed between these experimental findings and the theoretical neural model developed by professor Anninos and his colleagues. Equivalence between the mean numbers of neurons of the above mentioned age groups and the highest possible number of synaptic connections per neuron (highest number of synaptic connections corresponded to the age group 21-25) was created. We then used both inhibitory and excitatory post-synaptic potentials and applied these values to the Poisson and Gauss distributions, whereas the neuron threshold was varied between 3 and 5. According to the obtained phase diagrams, the hysteresis loops decrease as age increases. These findings were significant as the hysteresis loops can be regarded as the basis for short-term memory.

Serum IGF-I and IGFBP-3 levels of Turkish children during childhood and adolescence: establishment of reference ranges with emphasis on puberty.

PubMed

Bereket, Abdullah; Turan, Serap; Omar, Anjumanara; Berber, Mustafa; Ozen, Ahmet; Akbenlioglu, Cengiz; Haklar, Goncagul

2006-01-01

We established age- and sex-related reference ranges for serum insulin-like growth factor-I (IGF-I) and insulin-like growth factor binding protein-3 (IGFBP-3) levels in 807 healthy Turkish children (428 boys, 379 girls), and constructed a model for calculation of standard deviation scores of IGF-I and IGFBP-3 according to age, sex and pubertal stage. Serum IGF-I and IGFBP-3 concentrations tended to be higher in girls compared to boys of the same ages, but the differences were statistically significant only in pubertal ages (9-14 years) for IGF-I and only in prepubertal ages for IGFBP-3 (6-8 years) (p < 0.05). Peak IGF-I concentrations were observed earlier in girls than boys (14 vs. 15 years, Tanner stage IV vs. V) starting to decline thereafter. IGFBP-3 levels peaked at age 13 and at Tanner stage IV in both sexes with a subsequent fall. Serum levels of IGF-I and IGFBP-3 increased steadily with age in the prepubertal stage followed by a rapid increase in IGF-I in the early pubertal stages. A relatively steeper increase in IGF-I but not in IGFBP-3 levels was observed at age 10-11 years in girls and at 12-13 years in boys which preceded the reported age of pubertal growth spurt. At late pubertal stages, both IGF-I and IGFBP-3 either did not change or decreased by increasing age. Interrelationships between growth factors and anthropometric measurements have been described, and the physiologic consequences of these have been discussed in detail. Differences in the pattern of IGF-I and IGFBP-3 in the present paper and those reported in other studies emphasize the importance of locally established reference ranges. Establishment of this reference data and a standard deviation score prediction model based on age, sex and puberty will enhance the diagnostic power and utility of IGF-I and IGFBP-3 in evaluating growth disorders in our population. Copyright 2006 S. Karger AG, Basel

Summary Report of Cable Aging and Performance Data for Fiscal Year 2014.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Celina, Mathias C.; Celina, Mathias C.; Redline, Erica Marie

2014-09-01

As part of the Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program, science - based engineering approaches were employed to address cable degradation behavior under a range of exposure environments. Experiments were conducted with the goal to provide best guidance for aged material states, remaining life and expected performance under specific conditions for a range of cable materials. Generic engineering tests , which focus on rapid accelerated aging and tensile elongation , were combined with complementar y methods from polymer degradation science. Sandia's approach, building on previous years' efforts, enabled the generation of some of the necessary data supporting the development of improvedmore » lifetime predictions models, which incorporate known material b ehaviors and feedback from field - returned 'aged' cable materials. Oxidation rate measurements have provided access to material behavior under low dose rate thermal conditions, where slow degradation is not apparent in mechanical property changes. Such da ta have shown aging kinetics consistent with established radiati on - thermal degradation models. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS We gratefully acknowledge ongoing technical support at the LICA facility and extensive sample handling provided by Maryla Wasiolek and Don Hans on. Sam Durbin and Patrick Mattie are recognized for valuable guidance throughout the year and assistance in the preparation of the final report. Doug Brunson is appreciated for sample analysis, compilation and plotting of experimental data.« less

Aging and reprogramming: a two-way street

PubMed Central

Mahmoudi, Salah; Brunet, Anne

2012-01-01

Aging is accompanied by the functional decline of cells, tissues, and organs, as well as a striking increase in a wide range of diseases. The reprogramming of somatic cells to induced pluripotent stem cells (iPSCs) opens new avenues for the aging field and has important applications for therapeutic treatments of age-related diseases. Here we review emerging studies on how aging and age-related pathways influence iPSC generation and property. We discuss the exciting possibility that reverting to a pluripotent stem cell stage erases several deficits associated with aging and will provide new strategies for rejuvenation. Finally, we argue that reprogramming provides a unique opportunity to model aging and perhaps exceptional longevity. PMID:23146768

The significance of the Medicine Hat Block (southern Alberta, northern Montana) in the assembly of Laurentia: New interpretations from recent single grain zircon geochronological and geochemical data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

LaDouceur, B. O.; Gifford, J.; Malone, S.; Davis, B.

2017-12-01

Keywords: Medicine Hat Block, Zircon, U/Pb ages, Hf isotopes, Laurentia The Medicine Hat Block (MHB) is one of the core cratonic elements that amalgamated in the Paleoproterozoic to form Laurentia. However, unlike many of the other cratons, the role of the MHB in the formation of Laurentia is poorly constrained. Virtually all of the MHB is concealed by Proterozoic and younger supracrustal sequences, limiting the data collected from this craton. The primary source of samples from the MHB comes from two sources: 1) xenoliths of variably metamorphoses gneisses, amphibolites, and meta-plutonic rocks collected from Eocene volcanic rock, and 2) similar lithologies recovered from boreholes that penetrate to the MHB basement. Multigrain zircon TIMS analyses yielded U/Pb ages ranging from 1.70 Ga to 3.26 Ga. Recent zircon single-grain LA-ICPMS U-Pb ages revealed a slightly older range of Archean ages, 2.63 Ga to 3.27 Ga, and two samples yielding Paleoproterozoic ages at 1.78 and 1.82 Ga. Whole-rock Sm/Nd data indicated that the samples formed from crustal sources, with model ages ranging between 1.80 Ga to 3.48 Ga. In-situ zircon Hf isotopic results revealed that Archean-aged zircon are generally suprachondritic, with eHf(t) values between 8.3 and -8.7. In contrast, the Paleoproterozoic grains yielded negative eHf(t) values ranging from -6.8 to -21.2, suggestive of a reworked Archean crustal component in their genesis. In particular, the Sweetgrass Hill xenolith suite is characterized solely by Paleoproterozoic ages, with evolved eHf(t) suggesting that any older U-Pb ages were reset by granulite facies metamorphism and zircon recrystallization. The combined U-Pb and Hf isotopic data from these samples helps illuminate the character of the MHB and its relationships to the Wyoming and Hearne cratons, as well as the Great Falls Tectonic Zone (GFTZ). The ages overlap between cratonic elements; however, the abundance of positive eHf(t) values of the 2.8 Ga ages suggests that the MHB is distinct from the Wyoming Craton, and that the GFTZ must indeed be a collisional zone as proposed by others. The Paleoproterozoic ages observed in the granulite xenolith samples supports this distinctness as well, and also supports proposed models of a Paleoproterozoic underplating event observed in other xenoliths and in seismic sections.

Random regression analyses using B-spline functions to model growth of Nellore cattle.

PubMed

Boligon, A A; Mercadante, M E Z; Lôbo, R B; Baldi, F; Albuquerque, L G

2012-02-01

The objective of this study was to estimate (co)variance components using random regression on B-spline functions to weight records obtained from birth to adulthood. A total of 82 064 weight records of 8145 females obtained from the data bank of the Nellore Breeding Program (PMGRN/Nellore Brazil) which started in 1987, were used. The models included direct additive and maternal genetic effects and animal and maternal permanent environmental effects as random. Contemporary group and dam age at calving (linear and quadratic effect) were included as fixed effects, and orthogonal Legendre polynomials of age (cubic regression) were considered as random covariate. The random effects were modeled using B-spline functions considering linear, quadratic and cubic polynomials for each individual segment. Residual variances were grouped in five age classes. Direct additive genetic and animal permanent environmental effects were modeled using up to seven knots (six segments). A single segment with two knots at the end points of the curve was used for the estimation of maternal genetic and maternal permanent environmental effects. A total of 15 models were studied, with the number of parameters ranging from 17 to 81. The models that used B-splines were compared with multi-trait analyses with nine weight traits and to a random regression model that used orthogonal Legendre polynomials. A model fitting quadratic B-splines, with four knots or three segments for direct additive genetic effect and animal permanent environmental effect and two knots for maternal additive genetic effect and maternal permanent environmental effect, was the most appropriate and parsimonious model to describe the covariance structure of the data. Selection for higher weight, such as at young ages, should be performed taking into account an increase in mature cow weight. Particularly, this is important in most of Nellore beef cattle production systems, where the cow herd is maintained on range conditions. There is limited modification of the growth curve of Nellore cattle with respect to the aim of selecting them for rapid growth at young ages while maintaining constant adult weight.

Life history of the most complete fossil primate skeleton: exploring growth models for Darwinius

PubMed Central

López-Torres, Sergi; Schillaci, Michael A.; Silcox, Mary T.

2015-01-01

Darwinius is an adapoid primate from the Eocene of Germany, and its only known specimen represents the most complete fossil primate ever found. Its describers hypothesized a close relationship to Anthropoidea, and using a Saimiri model estimated its age at death. This study reconstructs the ancestral permanent dental eruption sequences for basal Euprimates, Haplorhini, Anthropoidea, and stem and crown Strepsirrhini. The results show that the ancestral sequences for the basal euprimate, haplorhine and stem strepsirrhine are identical, and similar to that of Darwinius. However, Darwinius differs from anthropoids by exhibiting early development of the lower third molars relative to the lower third and fourth premolars. The eruption of the lower second premolar marks the point of interruption of the sequence in Darwinius. The anthropoid Saimiri as a model is therefore problematic because it exhibits a delayed eruption of P2. Here, an alternative strepsirrhine model based on Eulemur and Varecia is presented. Our proposed model shows an older age at death than previously suggested (1.05–1.14 years), while the range for adult weight is entirely below the range proposed previously. This alternative model is more consistent with hypotheses supporting a stronger relationship between adapoids and strepsirrhines. PMID:26473056

BRIDGING GAPS BETWEEN ZOO AND WILDLIFE MEDICINE: ESTABLISHING REFERENCE INTERVALS FOR FREE-RANGING AFRICAN LIONS (PANTHERA LEO).

PubMed

Broughton, Heather M; Govender, Danny; Shikwambana, Purvance; Chappell, Patrick; Jolles, Anna

2017-06-01

The International Species Information System has set forth an extensive database of reference intervals for zoologic species, allowing veterinarians and game park officials to distinguish normal health parameters from underlying disease processes in captive wildlife. However, several recent studies comparing reference values from captive and free-ranging animals have found significant variation between populations, necessitating the development of separate reference intervals in free-ranging wildlife to aid in the interpretation of health data. Thus, this study characterizes reference intervals for six biochemical analytes, eleven hematologic or immune parameters, and three hormones using samples from 219 free-ranging African lions ( Panthera leo ) captured in Kruger National Park, South Africa. Using the original sample population, exclusion criteria based on physical examination were applied to yield a final reference population of 52 clinically normal lions. Reference intervals were then generated via 90% confidence intervals on log-transformed data using parametric bootstrapping techniques. In addition to the generation of reference intervals, linear mixed-effect models and generalized linear mixed-effect models were used to model associations of each focal parameter with the following independent variables: age, sex, and body condition score. Age and sex were statistically significant drivers for changes in hepatic enzymes, renal values, hematologic parameters, and leptin, a hormone related to body fat stores. Body condition was positively correlated with changes in monocyte counts. Given the large variation in reference values taken from captive versus free-ranging lions, it is our hope that this study will serve as a baseline for future clinical evaluations and biomedical research targeting free-ranging African lions.

Frequency Domain Reflectometry NDE for Aging Cables in Nuclear Power Plants

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Glass, Samuel W.; Jones, Anthony M.; Fifield, Leonard S.

Cable insulation polymers are among the more susceptible materials to age-related degradation within a nuclear power plant. This is recognized by both regulators and utilities, so all plants have developed cable aging management programs to detect damage before critical component failure in compliance with regulatory guidelines. Although a wide range of tools are available to evaluate cables and cable systems, cable aging management programs vary in how condition monitoring and nondestructive examinations are conducted as utilities search for the most reliable and cost-effective ways to assess cable system condition. Frequency domain reflectometry (FDR) is emerging as one valuable tool tomore » locate and assess damaged portions of a cable system with minimal cost and only requires access in most cases to one of the cable terminal ends. Since laboratory studies to evaluate the use of FDR for inspection of aged cables can be expensive and data interpretation may be confounded by multiple factors which influence results, a model-based approach is desired to parametrically investigate the effect of insulation material damage in a controlled manner. This work describes development of a physics-based FDR model which uses finite element simulations of cable segments in conjunction with cascaded circuit element simulations to efficiently study a cable system. One or more segments of the cable system model have altered physical or electrical properties which represent the degree of damage and the location of the damage in the system. This circuit model is then subjected to a simulated FDR examination. The modeling approach is verified using several experimental cases and by comparing it to a commercial simulator suitable for simulation of some cable configurations. The model is used to examine a broad range of parameters including defect length, defect profile, degree of degradation, number and location of defects, FDR bandwidth, and addition of impedance-matched extensions to minimize the end-shadow effect.« less

Prediction model with metabolic syndrome to predict recurrent vascular events in patients with clinically manifest vascular diseases.

PubMed

Wassink, Annemarie M; van der Graaf, Yolanda; Janssen, Kristel J; Cook, Nancy R; Visseren, Frank L

2012-12-01

Although the overall average 10-year cardiovascular risk for patients with manifest atherosclerosis is considered to be more than 20%, actual risk for individual patients ranges from much lower to much higher. We investigated whether information on metabolic syndrome (MetS) or its individual components improves cardiovascular risk stratification in these patients. We conducted a prospective cohort study in 3679 patients with clinical manifest atherosclerosis from the Secondary Manifestations of ARTerial disease (SMART) study. Primary outcome was defined as any cardiovascular event (cardiovascular death, ischemic stroke or myocardial infarction). Three pre-specified prediction models were derived, all including information on established MetS components. The association between outcome and predictors was quantified using a Cox proportional hazard analysis. Model performance was assessed using global goodness-of-fit fit (χ(2)), discrimination (C-index) and ability to improve risk stratification. A total of 417 cardiovascular events occurred among 3679 patients with 15,102 person-years of follow-up (median follow-up 3.7 years, range 1.6-6.4 years). Compared to a model with age and gender only, all MetS-based models performed slightly better in terms of global model fit (χ(2)) but not C-index. The Net Reclassification Index associated with the addition of MetS (yes/no), the dichotomous MetS-components or the continuous MetS-components on top of age and gender was 2.1% (p = 0.29), 2.3% (p = 0.31) and 7.5% (p = 0.01), respectively. Prediction models incorporating age, gender and MetS can discriminate between patients with clinical manifest atherosclerosis at the highest vascular risk and those at lower risk. The addition of MetS components to a model with age and gender correctly reclassifies only a small proportion of patients into higher- and lower-risk categories. The clinical utility of a prediction model with MetS is therefore limited.

Expanding the Circle of Knowledge: Reconceptualizing Successful Aging Among North American Older Indigenous Peoples.

PubMed

Pace, Jessica E; Grenier, Amanda

2017-03-01

Indigenous older peoples' voices and experiences remain largely absent in the dominant models and critical scholarship on aging and late life. This article examines the relevance of the model of successful aging for Indigenous peoples in North America. This article presents the results of a review of the published conceptual literature on successful aging among Indigenous peoples. Our intent was to explore the current state of the field of successful aging among Indigenous peoples and suggest dimensions that may be more reflective of Indigenous voices and experiences that leads to a more inclusive model of successful aging. Based on our review, we suggest four dimensions that may broaden understandings of successful aging to be more inclusive of Indigenous older people: health and wellness, empowerment and resilience, engagement and behavior, and connectedness. Our review suggests that Indigenous peoples' voices and experiences are beginning to be included in academic literature on successful aging. However, we suggest that understandings of successful aging be broadened based on our summative findings and a process of community involvement. Such processes can lead to the development of models that are more inclusive to a wide range of older people, including Indigenous older peoples. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Testosterone Trajectories and Reference Ranges in a Large Longitudinal Sample of Male Adolescents

PubMed Central

Khairullah, Ammar; Cousino Klein, Laura; Ingle, Suzanne M.; May, Margaret T.; Whetzel, Courtney A.; Susman, Elizabeth J.; Paus, Tomáš

2014-01-01

Purpose Pubertal dynamics plays an important role in physical and psychological development of children and adolescents. We aim to provide reference ranges of plasma testosterone in a large longitudinal sample. Furthermore, we describe a measure of testosterone trajectories during adolescence that can be used in future investigations of development. Methods We carried out longitudinal measurements of plasma testosterone in 2,216 samples obtained from 513 males (9 to 17 years of age) from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children. We used integration of a model fitted to each participant’s testosterone trajectory to calculate a measure of average exposure to testosterone over adolescence. We pooled these data with corresponding values reported in the literature to provide a reference range of testosterone levels in males between the ages of 6 and 19 years. Results The average values of total testosterone in the ALSPAC sample range from 0.82 nmol/L (Standard Deviation [SD]: 0.09) at 9 years of age to 16.5 (SD: 2.65) nmol/L at 17 years of age; these values are congruent with other reports in the literature. The average exposure to testosterone is associated with different features of testosterone trajectories such as Peak Testosterone Change, Age at Peak Testosterone Change, and Testosterone at 17 years of age as well as the timing of the growth spurt during puberty. Conclusions The average exposure to testosterone is a useful measure for future investigations using testosterone trajectories to examine pubertal dynamics. PMID:25268961

Cole-Cole parameters for the dielectric properties of porcine tissues as a function of age at microwave frequencies.

PubMed

Peyman, A; Gabriel, C

2010-08-07

We have applied the Cole-Cole expression to the dielectric properties of tissues in the frequency range 0.4-10 GHz. The data underpinning the model relate to pig tissue as a function of age. Altogether, we provide the Cole-Cole parameters for 14 tissue types at three developmental stages.

Stand and cohort structures of old-growth Pinus resinosa-dominated forests of northern Minnesota, USA

Treesearch

Shawn Fraver; Brian J. Palik

2012-01-01

The wide range of stand and age-cohort structures in these old-growth P. resinosa stands depicts pre-settlement forests more complex than those of the single-cohort, post-stand-replacing-fire model that has guided regional forest management. Within-stand patchiness of cohort age structures implies disturbances operating at scales smaller than...

The Influence of Maternal Acculturation, Neighborhood Disadvantage, and Parenting on Chinese American Adolescents' Conduct Problems: Testing the Segmented Assimilation Hypothesis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Liu, Lisa L.; Lau, Anna S.; Chen, Angela Chia-Chen; Dinh, Khanh T.; Kim, Su Yeong

2009-01-01

Associations among neighborhood disadvantage, maternal acculturation, parenting and conduct problems were investigated in a sample of 444 Chinese American adolescents. Adolescents (54% female, 46% male) ranged from 12 to 15 years of age (mean age = 13.0 years). Multilevel modeling was employed to test the hypothesis that the association between…

Working memory, short-term memory, and reading disabilities: a selective meta-analysis of the literature.

PubMed

Swanson, H Lee; Xinhua Zheng; Jerman, Olga

2009-01-01

The purpose of the present study was to synthesize research that compares children with and without reading disabilities (RD) on measures of short-term memory (STM) and working memory (WM). Across a broad age, reading, and IQ range, 578 effect sizes (ESs) were computed, yielding a mean ES across studies of -.89 (SD = 1.03). A total of 257 ESs were in the moderate range for STM measures (M = -.61, 95% confidence range of -.65 to -.58), and 320 ESs were in the moderate range for WM measures (M = -.67, 95% confidence range of -.68 to -.64). The results indicated that children with RD were distinctively disadvantaged compared with average readers on (a) STM measures requiring the recall of phonemes and digit sequences and (b) WM measures requiring the simultaneous processing and storage of digits within sentence sequences and final words from unrelated sentences. No significant moderating effects emerged for age, IQ, or reading level on memory ESs. The findings indicated that domain-specific STM and WM differences between ability groups persisted across age, suggesting that a verbal deficit model that fails to efficiently draw resources from both a phonological and executive system underlies RD.

Risk assessment model for development of advanced age-related macular degeneration.

PubMed

Klein, Michael L; Francis, Peter J; Ferris, Frederick L; Hamon, Sara C; Clemons, Traci E

2011-12-01

To design a risk assessment model for development of advanced age-related macular degeneration (AMD) incorporating phenotypic, demographic, environmental, and genetic risk factors. We evaluated longitudinal data from 2846 participants in the Age-Related Eye Disease Study. At baseline, these individuals had all levels of AMD, ranging from none to unilateral advanced AMD (neovascular or geographic atrophy). Follow-up averaged 9.3 years. We performed a Cox proportional hazards analysis with demographic, environmental, phenotypic, and genetic covariates and constructed a risk assessment model for development of advanced AMD. Performance of the model was evaluated using the C statistic and the Brier score and externally validated in participants in the Complications of Age-Related Macular Degeneration Prevention Trial. The final model included the following independent variables: age, smoking history, family history of AMD (first-degree member), phenotype based on a modified Age-Related Eye Disease Study simple scale score, and genetic variants CFH Y402H and ARMS2 A69S. The model did well on performance measures, with very good discrimination (C statistic = 0.872) and excellent calibration and overall performance (Brier score at 5 years = 0.08). Successful external validation was performed, and a risk assessment tool was designed for use with or without the genetic component. We constructed a risk assessment model for development of advanced AMD. The model performed well on measures of discrimination, calibration, and overall performance and was successfully externally validated. This risk assessment tool is available for online use.

Establishing age-associated normative ranges of the cerebral 18F-FDG uptake ratio in children.

PubMed

Hua, Chiaho; Merchant, Thomas E; Li, Xingyu; Li, Yimei; Shulkin, Barry L

2015-04-01

In this study, we reported age-associated ranges of the regional cerebral (18)F-FDG uptake ratio in pediatric patients as a surrogate to normative data from healthy children. (18)F-FDG PET scans of 132 children and adolescents (age, 1-20 y) with non-central nervous system-related diseases and normal-appearing tracer distributions in the brain were retrospectively analyzed. PET images of individual patients were warped to a 3-dimensional reference template. Uptake ratio was calculated for 63 anatomic regions by normalizing the regional count per voxel with the average count per voxel in all regions. Models of regional uptake ratio as a function of age and sex were developed to calculate the 95% prediction interval. The paracentral lobule and cuneus had the highest resting metabolic state among all gray matter regions, whereas the brain stem, uncus, and hippocampus had the lowest uptake. A large left-right asymmetry was present in the angular gyrus and inferior occipital gyrus. Quantitative data of the regression, 95% confidence interval, and 95% prediction interval for each age were summarized for the 63 regions. In 52 of 63 regions, the (18)F-FDG uptake ratio had a significant age effect. The linear model was optimal for 12 regions, whereas the spline model with 1 age knot was a better fit for 40 regions. In children younger than 5 y, frontal and temporal lobes had a lower uptake than parietal and occipital lobes in general. However, uptake in the frontal lobe continued to increase with age but it decreased in the parietal and occipital lobes. Anatomic regions of the brain in children and adolescents exhibited uniquely different (18)F-FDG uptake trends with age. Our results may be useful for studying childhood development and possibly regional metabolic defects in children with traumatic brain injury or central nervous system disorders or children receiving cancer treatment. © 2015 by the Society of Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging, Inc.

Late-life factors associated with healthy aging in older men.

PubMed

Bell, Christina L; Chen, Randi; Masaki, Kamal; Yee, Priscilla; He, Qimei; Grove, John; Donlon, Timothy; Curb, J David; Willcox, D Craig; Poon, Leonard W; Willcox, Bradley J

2014-05-01

To identify potentially modifiable late-life biological, lifestyle, and sociodemographic factors associated with overall and healthy survival to age 85. Prospective longitudinal cohort study with 21 years of follow-up (1991-2012). Hawaii Lifespan Study. American men of Japanese ancestry (mean age 75.7, range 71-82) without baseline major clinical morbidity and functional impairments (N = 1,292). Overall survival and healthy survival (free from six major chronic diseases and without physical or cognitive impairment) to age 85. Factors were measured at late-life baseline examinations (1991-1993). Of 1,292 participants, 1,000 (77%) survived to 85 (34% healthy) and 309 (24%) to 95 (<1% healthy). Late-life factors associated with survival and healthy survival included biological (body mass index, ankle-brachial index, cognitive score, blood pressure, inflammatory markers), lifestyle (smoking, alcohol use, physical activity), and sociodemographic factors (education, marital status). Cumulative late-life baseline risk factor models demonstrated that age-standardized (at 70) probability of survival to 95 ranged from 27% (no factors) to 7% (≥ 5 factors); probability of survival to 100 ranged from 4% (no factors) to 0.1% (≥ 5 factors). Age-standardized (at 70) probability of healthy survival to 90 ranged from 4% (no factors) to 0.01% (≥ 5 factors). There were nine healthy survivors at 95 and one healthy survivor at 100. Several potentially modifiable risk factors in men in late life (mean age 75.7) were associated with markedly greater probability of subsequent healthy survival and longevity. © 2014, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2014, The American Geriatrics Society.

Late Eocene Uplift of the Al Hajar Mountains, Oman, Supported by Stratigraphy and Low-Temperature Thermochronology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hansman, Reuben J.; Ring, Uwe; Thomson, Stuart N.; den Brok, Bas; Stübner, Konstanze

2017-12-01

Uplift of the Al Hajar Mountains in Oman has been related to either Late Cretaceous ophiolite obduction or the Neogene Zagros collision. To test these hypotheses, the cooling of the central Al Hajar Mountains is constrained by 10 apatite (U-Th)/He (AHe), 15 fission track (AFT), and four zircon (U-Th)/He (ZHe) sample ages. These data show differential cooling between the two major structural culminations of the mountains. In the 3 km high Jabal Akhdar culmination AHe single-grain ages range between 39 ± 2 Ma and 10 ± 1 Ma (2σ errors), AFT ages range from 51 ± 8 Ma to 32 ± 4 Ma, and ZHe single-grain ages range from 62 ± 3 Ma to 39 ± 2 Ma. In the 2 km high Saih Hatat culmination AHe ages range from 26 ± 4 to 12 ± 4 Ma, AFT ages from 73 ± 19 Ma to 57 ± 8 Ma, and ZHe single-grain ages from 81 ± 4 Ma to 58 ± 3 Ma. Thermal modeling demonstrates that cooling associated with uplift and erosion initiated at 40 Ma, indicating that uplift occurred 30 Myr after ophiolite obduction and at least 10 Myr before the Zagros collision. Therefore, this uplift cannot be related to either event. We propose that crustal thickening supporting the topography of the Al Hajar Mountains was caused by a slowdown of Makran subduction and that north Oman took up the residual fraction of N-S convergence between Arabia and Eurasia.

A bench-top hyperspectral imaging system to classify beef from Nellore cattle based on tenderness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nubiato, Keni Eduardo Zanoni; Mazon, Madeline Rezende; Antonelo, Daniel Silva; Calkins, Chris R.; Naganathan, Govindarajan Konda; Subbiah, Jeyamkondan; da Luz e Silva, Saulo

2018-03-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the accuracy of classification of Nellore beef aged for 0, 7, 14, or 21 days and classification based on tenderness and aging period using a bench-top hyperspectral imaging system. A hyperspectral imaging system (λ = 928-2524 nm) was used to collect hyperspectral images of the Longissimus thoracis et lumborum (aging n = 376 and tenderness n = 345) of Nellore cattle. The image processing steps included selection of region of interest, extraction of spectra, and indentification and evalution of selected wavelengths for classification. Six linear discriminant models were developed to classify samples based on tenderness and aging period. The model using the first derivative of partial absorbance spectra (give wavelength range spectra) was able to classify steaks based on the tenderness with an overall accuracy of 89.8%. The model using the first derivative of full absorbance spectra was able to classify steaks based on aging period with an overall accuracy of 84.8%. The results demonstrate that the HIS may be a viable technology for classifying beef based on tenderness and aging period.

A General Model of Dioxin Contamination in Breast Milk: Results from a Study on 94 Women from the Caserta and Naples Areas in Italy

PubMed Central

Rivezzi, Gaetano; Piscitelli, Prisco; Scortichini, Giampiero; Giovannini, Armando; Diletti, Gianfranco; Migliorati, Giacomo; Ceci, Roberta; Rivezzi, Giulia; Cirasino, Lorenzo; Carideo, Pietro; Black, Dennis M.; Garzillo, Carmine; Giani, Umberto

2013-01-01

Background: The Caserta and Naples areas in Campania Region experience heavy environmental contamination due to illegal waste disposal and burns, thus representing a valuable setting to develop a general model of human contamination with dioxins (PCDDs-PCDFs) and dioxin-like-PCBs (dl-PCBs). Methods: 94 breastfeeding women (aged 19–32 years; mean age 27.9 ± 3.0) were recruited to determine concentrations of PCDDs-PCDFs and dl-PCBs in their milk. Individual milk samples were collected and analyzed according to standard international procedures. A generalized linear model was used to test potential predictors of pollutant concentration in breast milk: age, exposure to waste fires, cigarette smoking, diet, and residence in high/low risk area (defined at high/low environmental pressure by a specific 2007 WHO report). A Structural Equation Model (SEM) analysis was carried out by taking into account PCDDs-PCDFs and dl-PCBs as endogenous variables and age, waste fires, risk area and smoking as exogenous variables. Results: All milk samples were contaminated by PCDDs-PCDFs (8.6 pg WHO-TEQ/98g fat ± 2.7; range 3.8–19) and dl-PCBs (8.0 pg WHO-TEQ/98g fat ± 3.7; range 2.5–24), with their concentrations being associated with age and exposure to waste fires (p < 0.01). Exposure to fires resulted in larger increases of dioxins concentrations in people living in low risk areas than those from high risk areas (p < 0.01). Conclusions: A diffuse human exposure to persistent organic pollutants was observed in the Caserta and Naples areas. Dioxins concentration in women living in areas classified at low environmental pressure in 2007 WHO report was significantly influenced by exposure to burns. PMID:24217180

Impact of age on both BIS values and EEG bispectrum during anaesthesia with sevoflurane in children

PubMed Central

Wodey, Eric; Tirel, Olivier; Bansard, Jean-Yves; Terrier, Anne; Chanavaz, Charles; Harris, Rupert; Ecoffey, Claude; Senhadji, Lotfi

2005-01-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the potential relationship between age, BIS (Aspect™) and the EEG bispectrum during anesthesia with sevoflurane. BIS and raw EEG sampled at 400 Hz were recorded at a steady state of 1 MAC sevoflurane in 100 children, and during a decrease from 2 MAC to 0.5 MAC in a sub-group of 29 children. The bispectrum of the EEG was estimated on successive epochs of 20 seconds using MATLAB© software, independently of the Aspect™ device. For analysis, the bispectrum was divided into 36 frequencies of coupling (Pi) - the MatBis. A multiple correspondence analysis (MCA) was used to establish an underlying structure of the pattern of each individual’s MatBis at the steady state of 1 MAC. Clustering of children into homogeneous groups was conducted by a hierarchical ascending classification (HAC). The level of statistical significance was set at 0.05. At the steady state of 1 MAC sevoflurane, the BIS values for all 100 children ranged from 20 to 74 (median 40). Projection of both age and BIS value recorded at 1 MAC (T10) onto the structured model of the MCA showed them to be distributed along axis F1 of this model. In contrast, projection of children’s position during the decrease in sevoflurane concentration was linked to axis F2. At 1 MAC sevoflurane, six homogeneous groups of children were obtained through the HAC. Groups 5 (30 months; range 23–49) and 6 (18 months; range 6–180) were the younger children and group 1 (97 months; range 46–162) the older. Groups 5 and 6 had the highest median values of BIS (54; range 50–59)(55; range 26–74) and the group 1 the lowest values (29; range 22–37). The EEG bispectrum, as well as the BIS (Aspect XP™) measured at 1 MAC sevoflurane appeared to be strongly related to the age of children. PMID:15833781

Progressive Bidirectional Age-Related Changes in Default Mode Network Effective Connectivity across Six Decades

PubMed Central

Li, Karl; Laird, Angela R.; Price, Larry R.; McKay, D. Reese; Blangero, John; Glahn, David C.; Fox, Peter T.

2016-01-01

The default mode network (DMN) is a set of regions that is tonically engaged during the resting state and exhibits task-related deactivation that is readily reproducible across a wide range of paradigms and modalities. The DMN has been implicated in numerous disorders of cognition and, in particular, in disorders exhibiting age-related cognitive decline. Despite these observations, investigations of the DMN in normal aging are scant. Here, we used blood oxygen level dependent (BOLD) functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) acquired during rest to investigate age-related changes in functional connectivity of the DMN in 120 healthy normal volunteers comprising six, 20-subject, decade cohorts (from 20–29 to 70–79). Structural equation modeling (SEM) was used to assess age-related changes in inter-regional connectivity within the DMN. SEM was applied both using a previously published, meta-analytically derived, node-and-edge model, and using exploratory modeling searching for connections that optimized model fit improvement. Although the two models were highly similar (only 3 of 13 paths differed), the sample demonstrated significantly better fit with the exploratory model. For this reason, the exploratory model was used to assess age-related changes across the decade cohorts. Progressive, highly significant changes in path weights were found in 8 (of 13) paths: four rising, and four falling (most changes were significant by the third or fourth decade). In all cases, rising paths and falling paths projected in pairs onto the same nodes, suggesting compensatory increases associated with age-related decreases. This study demonstrates that age-related changes in DMN physiology (inter-regional connectivity) are bidirectional, progressive, of early onset and part of normal aging. PMID:27378909

Progressive Bidirectional Age-Related Changes in Default Mode Network Effective Connectivity across Six Decades.

PubMed

Li, Karl; Laird, Angela R; Price, Larry R; McKay, D Reese; Blangero, John; Glahn, David C; Fox, Peter T

2016-01-01

The default mode network (DMN) is a set of regions that is tonically engaged during the resting state and exhibits task-related deactivation that is readily reproducible across a wide range of paradigms and modalities. The DMN has been implicated in numerous disorders of cognition and, in particular, in disorders exhibiting age-related cognitive decline. Despite these observations, investigations of the DMN in normal aging are scant. Here, we used blood oxygen level dependent (BOLD) functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) acquired during rest to investigate age-related changes in functional connectivity of the DMN in 120 healthy normal volunteers comprising six, 20-subject, decade cohorts (from 20-29 to 70-79). Structural equation modeling (SEM) was used to assess age-related changes in inter-regional connectivity within the DMN. SEM was applied both using a previously published, meta-analytically derived, node-and-edge model, and using exploratory modeling searching for connections that optimized model fit improvement. Although the two models were highly similar (only 3 of 13 paths differed), the sample demonstrated significantly better fit with the exploratory model. For this reason, the exploratory model was used to assess age-related changes across the decade cohorts. Progressive, highly significant changes in path weights were found in 8 (of 13) paths: four rising, and four falling (most changes were significant by the third or fourth decade). In all cases, rising paths and falling paths projected in pairs onto the same nodes, suggesting compensatory increases associated with age-related decreases. This study demonstrates that age-related changes in DMN physiology (inter-regional connectivity) are bidirectional, progressive, of early onset and part of normal aging.

Dietary biomagnification of organochlorine contaminants in Alaskan polar bears

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bentzen, T.W.; Follmann, Erich H.; Amstrup, Steven C.; York, G.S.; Wooller, M.J.; Muir, D.C.G.; O'Hara, T. M.

2008-01-01

Concentrations of organochlorine contaminants in the adipose tissue of polar bears (Ursus maritimus Phipps, 1774) vary throughout the Arctic. The range in concentrations has not been explained fully by bear age, sex, condition, location, or reproductive status. Dietary pathways expose polar bears to a variety of contaminant profiles and concentrations. Prey range from lower trophic level bowhead whales (Balaena mysticetus L., 1758), one of the least contaminated marine mammals, to highly contaminated upper trophic level ringed seals (Phoca hispida (Schreber, 1775)). We used ??15N and ??13C signatures to estimate the trophic status of 42 polar bears sampled along Alaska's Beaufort Sea coast to determine the relationship between organochlorine concentration and trophic level. The ?? 15N values in the cellular portions of blood ranged from 18.2% to 20.7%. We found strong positive relationships between concentrations of the most recalcitrant polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and ??15N values in models incorporating age, lipid content, and ??13C value. Specifically these models accounted for 67% and 76% of the variation in PCB153 and oxychlordane concentration in male polar bears and 85% and 93% in females, respectively. These results are strong indicators of variation in diet and biomagnification of organochlorines among polar bears related to their sex, age, and trophic position. ?? 2008 NRC.

Measurement and modeling of bryophyte evaporation in a boreal forest chronosequence

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; Gower, Stith T.; Amiro, Brian

2011-01-19

The effects of changing climate and disturbance on forest water cycling are not well understood. In particular bryophytes contribute significantly to forest evapotranspiration (ET) in poorly-drained boreal forests, but few studies have directly measured this flux and how it changes with stand age and soil drainage. We used large chambers to measure bryophyte evaporation (E) in Canadian Picea mariana forests of varying ages and soil drainages, as well under controlled laboratory conditions, and modeled daily E using site-specific meteorological data to drive a Penman-Monteith-based model. Field measurements of E averaged 0.37 mm day-1, and ranged from 0.03 (Pleurozium schreberii inmore » a 77-year-old dry stand) to 1.43 mm day-1 (Sphagnum riparium in a 43-year-old bog). canopy resistance ranged from ~0 (at 25 °C, some values were <0) to ~1500 s m-1 for dry, cold (5 °C) mosses. In the laboratory, moss canopy resistance was constant until a moss water content of ~6 g g-1 and then climbed sharply with further drying; no difference was observed between the three moss groups (feather mosses, hollow mosses, and hummock mosses) tested. Modeled annual E fluxes from bryophytes ranged from 0.4 mm day-1, in the well-drained stands, to ~1 mm day-1 in the 43-year-old bog, during the growing season. Eddy covariance data imply that bryophytes contributed 18-31% and 49-69% to the total ET flux, at the well- and poorly-drained stands respectively. Bryophyte E was greater in bogs than in upland stands, was driven by low-lying mosses, and did not vary with stand age; this suggests that shifts in forest age due to increasing fire will have little effect on the bryophyte contribution to ET.« less

COLLABORATIVE MODELING OF THE BENEFITS AND HARMS ASSOCIATED WITH DIFFERENT U.S. BREAST CANCER SCREENING STRATEGIES

PubMed Central

Mandelblatt, Jeanne S.; Stout, Natasha K.; Schechter, Clyde B.; van den Broek, Jeroen J.; Miglioretti, Diana; Krapcho, Martin; Trentham-Dietz, Amy; Munoz, Diego; Lee, Sandra J.; Berry, Donald A.; van Ravesteyn, Nicolien T.; Alagoz, Oguzhan; Kerlikowske, Karla; Tosteson, Anna N.A.; Near, Aimee M.; Hoeffken, Amanda; Chang, Yaojen; Heijnsdijk, Eveline A.; Chisholm, Gary; Huang, Xuelin; Huang, Hui; Ergun, Mehmet Ali; Gangnon, Ronald; Sprague, Brian L.; Plevritis, Sylvia; Feuer, Eric; de Koning, Harry J.; Cronin, Kathleen A.

2016-01-01

Background Controversy persists about optimal mammography screening strategies. Objective To evaluate mammography strategies considering screening and treatment advances. Design Collaboration of six simulation models. Data Sources National data on incidence, risk, breast density, digital mammography performance, treatment effects, and other-cause mortality. Target Population An average-risk cohort. Time Horizon Lifetime. Perspective Societal. Interventions Mammograms from age 40, 45 or 50 to 74 at annual or biennial intervals, or annually from 40 or 45 to 49 then biennially to 74, assuming 100% screening and treatment adherence. Outcome Measures Screening benefits (vs. no screening) include percent breast cancer mortality reduction, deaths averted, and life-years gained. Harms include number of mammograms, false-positives, benign biopsies, and overdiagnosis. Results for Average-Risk Women Biennial strategies maintain 79.8%-81.3% (range across strategies and models: 68.3–98.9%) of annual screening benefits with almost half the false-positives and fewer overdiagnoses. Screening biennially from ages 50–74 achieves a median 25.8% (range: 24.1%-31.8%) breast cancer mortality reduction; annual screening from ages 40–74 years reduces mortality an additional 12.0% (range: 5.7%-17.2%) vs. no screening, but yields 1988 more false-positives and 7 more overdiagnoses per 1000 women screened. Annual screening from ages 50–74 had similar benefits as other strategies but more harms, so would not be recommended. Sub-population Results Annual screening starting at age 40 for women who have a two- to four-fold increase in risk has a similar balance of harms and benefits as biennial screening of average-risk women from 50–74. Limitations We do not consider other imaging technologies, polygenic risk, or non-adherence. Conclusion These results suggest that biennial screening is efficient for average-risk groups, but decisions on strategies depend on the weight given to the balance of harms and benefits. Primary Funding Source National Institutes of Health PMID:26756606

Understanding Elementary Astronomy by Making Drawing-Based Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Joolingen, W. R.; Aukes, Annika V. A.; Gijlers, H.; Bollen, L.

2015-04-01

Modeling is an important approach in the teaching and learning of science. In this study, we attempt to bring modeling within the reach of young children by creating the SimSketch modeling system, which is based on freehand drawings that can be turned into simulations. This system was used by 247 children (ages ranging from 7 to 15) to create a drawing-based model of the solar system. The results show that children in the target age group are capable of creating a drawing-based model of the solar system and can use it to show the situations in which eclipses occur. Structural equation modeling predicting post-test knowledge scores based on learners' pre-test knowledge scores, the quality of their drawings and motivational aspects yielded some evidence that such drawing contributes to learning. Consequences for using modeling with young children are considered.

Anomalous isotopic compositions of Sr, Ar and O in the Mesozoic diabase dikes of Liberia, West Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mauche, Renée; Faure, Gunter; Jones, Lois M.; Hoefs, Jochen

1989-01-01

The Mesozoic diabase dikes of Liberia are tholeiites whose 87Sr/86Sr and 87Rb/86Sr ratios scatter widely on the Rb-Sr isochron diagram. The problem is attributed to differences in the initial 87Sr/86Sr ratios of these rocks which range from 0.70311 to 0.70792, assuming a uniform age of 186 Ma for the dikes and using λ(87Rb)=1.42 × 10-11y-1. The range of values is similar to that observed in the Mesozoic basalt flows and dikes of other Gondwana continents. New whole-rock K-Ar dates confirm previous conclusions that the diabase dikes in the Liberian and Pan-African age provinces of Liberia absorbed extraneous 40Ar after intrusion. Only the dikes in the Paynesville Sandstone have K-Ar dates that range from 117 Ma to 201 Ma and may not contain extraneous 40Ar. However, dikes from all three age provinces of Liberia have elevated initial 87Sr/86Sr ratios. These results indicate that contamination with radiogenic 87Sr occurred primarily before intrusion of the magma whereas the addition of extraneous 40Ar occurred after emplacement and reflects the age and mineral composition of the country rock. The δ 18O values of the Liberian diabase range from +5.6/% to +9.10/% and correlate positively with initial 87Sr/86Sr ratios. The data can be modeled by fractional crystallization and simultaneous assimilation of crustal rocks by the magma. However, samples containing amphibole and biotite replacing pyroxene deviate from the Sr-O isotope trajectories of the model and appear to have been depleted in 18O and enriched in 87Sr by interactions with groundwater at high temperature.

The Transition from Preschool to First Grade: A Transactional Model of Development

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Goble, Priscilla; Eggum-Wilkens, Natalie D.; Bryce, Crystal I.; Foster, Stacie A.; Hanish, Laura D.; Martin, Carol Lynn; Fabes, Richard A.

2017-01-01

Transactional relations between children's positive social interaction skills, school engagement, and academic achievement were examined using a longitudinal panel model across the transition from preschool to first grade. Participants were Head Start children (N = 241; 49% girls, M age = 53 months, range 45-60); 78% were Mexican/Mexican-American;…

Video Modeling: A Visually Based Intervention for Children with Autism Spectrum Disorder

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ganz, Jennifer B.; Earles-Vollrath, Theresa L.; Cook, Katherine E.

2011-01-01

Visually based interventions such as video modeling have been demonstrated to be effective with students with autism spectrum disorder (ASD). This approach has wide utility, is appropriate for use with students of a range of ages and abilities, promotes independent functioning, and can be used to address numerous learner objectives, including…

Neighborhood influences on the association between maternal age and birthweight: a multilevel investigation of age-related disparities in health.

PubMed

Cerdá, Magdalena; Buka, Stephen L; Rich-Edwards, Janet W

2008-05-01

It was hypothesized that the relationship between maternal age and infant birthweight varies significantly across neighborhoods and that such variation can be predicted by neighborhood characteristics. We analyzed 229,613 singleton births of mothers aged 20-45 years from Chicago, USA in 1997-2002. Random coefficient models were used to estimate the between-neighborhood variation in age-birthweight slopes, and both intercepts- and-slopes-as-outcomes models were used to evaluate area-level predictors of such variation. The crude maternal age-birthweight slopes for neighborhoods ranged from a decrease of 17 g to an increase of 10 g per year of maternal age. Adjustment for individual-level covariates reduced but did not eliminate this between-neighborhood variation. Concentrated poverty was a significant neighborhood-level predictor of the age-birthweight slope, explaining 44.4% of the between-neighborhood variation in slopes. Neighborhoods of higher economic disadvantage showed a more negative age-birthweight slope. The findings support the hypothesis that the relationship between maternal age and birthweight varies between neighborhoods. Indicators of neighborhood disadvantage help to explain such differences.

The Frequency of Circumnuclear Starbursts in Seyfert Galaxies --- Testing the Starburst-AGN Connection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schinnerer, E.; Colbert, E.; Armus, L.; Scoville, N. Z.; Heckman, T. M.

We obtained sub-arcsecond medium resolution near-infrared spectra of a sample of nearby bright Seyfert galaxies (8 Seyfert 1s, 11 Seyfert 2s) using the KeckII telescope. The stellar absorption lines present in the spectra were used in conjunction with population synthesis models to determine the age of the circumnuclear stellar population. Initial analysis of a sub-sample of the Seyfert galaxies has provided no evidence for a connection between the age of the circumnuclear stellar population and the Seyfert type. The derived ages for the circumnuclear stellar population are in the range of 10 Myr to < 0.5 Gyr assuming an instantaneous starburst (using the STARBURST99 models).

What is the evidence for stress resistance and slowed aging?

PubMed

Hamilton, Karyn L; Miller, Benjamin F

2016-09-01

Stress resistance is thought to contribute to slowed-aging, although cause and effect between the two is controversial. On October 30, 2015 researchers gathered at the Front Range Consortium on Stress Resistance and Slowed Aging in Fort Collins, CO, to discuss what the current evidence is that stress resistance imparts slowed aging. Included in that discussion was defining stress resistance, distinguishing if there are key stresses to which resistance imparts slowed aging, what models aid in our understanding of stress resistance and aging, and how to translate that knowledge into slowed aging treatment. The following article is a brief summary of that discussion and recommendations for moving forward. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Physical and cognitive fitness in young adulthood and risk of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis at an early age.

PubMed

Longinetti, E; Mariosa, D; Larsson, H; Almqvist, C; Lichtenstein, P; Ye, W; Fang, F

2017-01-01

There is a clinical impression that patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) have a higher level of physical fitness and lower body mass index (BMI) than average. However, there is a lack of literature examining the relationship between cognitive fitness and ALS risk. In this study we explored the associations of both physical and cognitive fitness with future risk of ALS. Data on physical fitness, BMI, intelligence quotient (IQ) and stress resilience were collected from 1 838 376 Swedish men aged 17-20 years at conscription during 1968-2010. Their subsequent ALS diagnoses were identified through the Swedish Patient Register. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs from flexible parametric models were used to assess age-specific associations of physical fitness, BMI, IQ and stress resilience with ALS. We identified 439 incident ALS cases during follow-up (mean age at diagnosis: 48 years). Individuals with physical fitness above the highest tertile tended to have a higher risk of ALS before the age of 45 years (range of HRs: 1.42-1.75; statistically significant associations at age 41-43 years) compared with others. Individuals with BMI ≥ 25 tended to have a lower risk of ALS at all ages (range of HRs: 0.42-0.80; statistically significant associations at age 42-48 years) compared with those with BMI < 25. Individuals with IQ above the highest tertile had a statistically significantly increased risk of ALS at an age of 56 years and above (range of HRs: 1.33-1.81), whereas individuals with stress resilience above the highest tertile had a lower risk of ALS at an age of 55 years and below (range of HRs: 0.47-0.73). Physical fitness, BMI, IQ and stress resilience in young adulthood might be associated with the development of ALS at an early age. © 2016 EAN.

The impact of age on lamotrigine and oxcarbazepine kinetics: a historical cohort study.

PubMed

Wegner, Ilse; Wilhelm, Abraham J; Sander, Josemir W; Lindhout, Dick

2013-10-01

Age as well as estrogen levels may have an impact on the pharmacokinetics of lamotrigine (LTG) and monohydroxycarbazepine (MHD), the active metabolite of oxcarbazepine (OXC). To assess the effects of age and menopause, we evaluated retrospectively a therapeutic drug-monitoring database. Samples from 507 women and 302 men taking LTG and 464 women and 319 men taking OXC were used to develop a population pharmacokinetic model. Data were analyzed using NONMEM software and were compared with a population pharmacokinetic model based on samples of 1705 women and 1771 men taking carbamazepine (CBZ). Age was a significant factor contributing to pharmacokinetic variability in individuals using LTG, OXC, and CBZ with increasing clearance as a function of bioavailability (Cl/F) over age 18, a maximum Cl/F at 33years (CBZ) and 36 years (LTG and OXC), and a gradual decrease of Cl/F towards older age. We found no effect of perimenopausal age range on LTG and MHD clearance. © 2013.

Emotional Intelligence Mediates the Relationship between Age and Subjective Well-Being.

PubMed

Chen, Yiwei; Peng, Yisheng; Fang, Ping

2016-07-01

Individuals' Subjective Well-being (SWB) increases as they grow older. Past literature suggests that emotional intelligence may increase with age and lead to higher levels of SWB in older adults. The primary purpose of the present study was to test whether emotional intelligence would mediate the relationship between age and SWB. A total of 360 Chinese adults (age range: 20 to 79 years old) participated in this study. They filled out questionnaires that assessed their age, life satisfaction (The Satisfaction with Life Scale), affective well-being (The Positive and Negative Affect Schedule), and emotional intelligence (The Wong and Law Emotional Intelligence Scale). Using Structural Equation Modeling, the mediation model was supported, χ(2) (75) = 194.21, p < .01; RMSEA = .07; CFI = .91. Emotional intelligence partially mediated the relationship between age and life satisfaction, and fully mediated the relationship between age and affective well-being. The findings suggest that older adults may use their increased emotional intelligence to enhance their SWB. © The Author(s) 2016.

Emotional Intelligence Mediates the Relationship between Age and Subjective Well-Being

PubMed Central

Chen, Yiwei; Peng, Yisheng; Fang, Ping

2017-01-01

Individuals’ Subjective Well-being (SWB) increases as they grow older. Past literature suggests that emotional intelligence may increase with age and lead to higher levels of SWB in older adults. The primary purpose of the present study was to test whether emotional intelligence would mediate the relationship between age and SWB. A total of 360 Chinese adults (age range: 20 to 79 years old) participated in this study. They filled out questionnaires that assessed their age, life satisfaction (The Satisfaction with Life Scale), affective well-being (The Positive and Negative Affect Schedule), and emotional intelligence (The Wong and Law Emotional Intelligence Scale). Using Structural Equation Modeling, the mediation model was supported, χ2 (75) =194.21, p < .01; RMSEA =.07; CFI = .91. Emotional intelligence partially mediated the relationship between age and life satisfaction, and fully mediated the relationship between age and affective well-being. The findings suggest that older adults may use their increased emotional intelligence to enhance their SWB. PMID:27199490

A Complex Story: Universal Preference vs. Individual Differences Shaping Aesthetic Response to Fractals Patterns

PubMed Central

Street, Nichola; Forsythe, Alexandra M.; Reilly, Ronan; Taylor, Richard; Helmy, Mai S.

2016-01-01

Fractal patterns offer one way to represent the rough complexity of the natural world. Whilst they dominate many of our visual experiences in nature, little large-scale perceptual research has been done to explore how we respond aesthetically to these patterns. Previous research (Taylor et al., 2011) suggests that the fractal patterns with mid-range fractal dimensions (FDs) have universal aesthetic appeal. Perceptual and aesthetic responses to visual complexity have been more varied with findings suggesting both linear (Forsythe et al., 2011) and curvilinear (Berlyne, 1970) relationships. Individual differences have been found to account for many of the differences we see in aesthetic responses but some, such as culture, have received little attention within the fractal and complexity research fields. This two-study article aims to test preference responses to FD and visual complexity, using a large cohort (N = 443) of participants from around the world to allow universality claims to be tested. It explores the extent to which age, culture and gender can predict our preferences for fractally complex patterns. Following exploratory analysis that found strong correlations between FD and visual complexity, a series of linear mixed-effect models were implemented to explore if each of the individual variables could predict preference. The first tested a linear complexity model (likelihood of selecting the more complex image from the pair of images) and the second a mid-range FD model (likelihood of selecting an image within mid-range). Results show that individual differences can reliably predict preferences for complexity across culture, gender and age. However, in fitting with current findings the mid-range models show greater consistency in preference not mediated by gender, age or culture. This article supports the established theory that the mid-range fractal patterns appear to be a universal construct underlying preference but also highlights the fragility of universal claims by demonstrating individual differences in preference for the interrelated concept of visual complexity. This highlights a current stalemate in the field of empirical aesthetics. PMID:27252634

Effect of Age-Related Human Lens Sutures Growth on Its Fluid Dynamics.

PubMed

Wu, Ho-Ting D; Howse, Louisa A; Vaghefi, Ehsan

2017-12-01

Age-related nuclear cataract is the opacification of the clear ocular lens due to oxidative damage as we age, and is the leading cause of blindness in the world. A lack of antioxidant supply to the core of ever-growing ocular lens could contribute to the cause of this condition. In this project, a computational model was developed to study the sutural fluid inflow of the aging human lens. Three different SOLIDWORKS computational fluid dynamics models of the human lens (7 years old; 28 years old; 46 years old) were created, based on available literature data. The fluid dynamics of the lens sutures were modelled using the Stokes flow equations, combined with realistic physiological boundary conditions and embedded in COMSOL Multiphysics. The flow rate, volume, and flow rate per volume of fluid entering the aging lens were examined, and all increased over the 40 years modelled. However, while the volume of the lens grew by ∼300% and the flow rate increased by ∼400%, the flow rate per volume increased only by very moderate ∼38%. Here, sutural information from humans of 7 to 46 years of age was obtained. In this modelled age range, an increase of flow rate per volume was observed, albeit at very slow rate. We hypothesize that with even further increasing age (60+ years old), the lens volume growth would outpace its flow rate increases, which would eventually lead to malnutrition of the lens nucleus and onset of cataracts.

Model Atmospheres for Massive Gas Giants with Thick Clouds: Application to the HR 8799 Planets and Predictions for Future Detections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Madhusudhan, Nikku; Burrows, Adam; Currie, Thayne

2011-08-01

We have generated an extensive new suite of massive giant planet atmosphere models and used it to obtain fits to photometric data for the planets HR 8799b, c, and d. We consider a wide range of cloudy and cloud-free models. The cloudy models incorporate different geometrical and optical thicknesses, modal particle sizes, and metallicities. For each planet and set of cloud parameters, we explore grids in gravity and effective temperature, with which we determine constraints on the planet's mass and age. Our new models yield statistically significant fits to the data, and conclusively confirm that the HR 8799 planets have much thicker clouds than those required to explain data for typical L and T dwarfs. Both models with (1) physically thick forsterite clouds and a 60 μm modal particle size and (2) clouds made of 1 μm sized pure iron droplets and 1% supersaturation fit the data. Current data are insufficient to accurately constrain the microscopic cloud properties, such as composition and particle size. The range of best-estimated masses for HR 8799b, HR 8799c, and HR 8799d conservatively span 2-12 MJ , 6-13 MJ , and 3-11 MJ , respectively, and imply coeval ages between ~10 and ~150 Myr, consistent with previously reported stellar ages. The best-fit temperatures and gravities are slightly lower than values obtained by Currie et al. using even thicker cloud models. Finally, we use these models to predict the near-to-mid-IR colors of soon-to-be imaged planets. Our models predict that planet-mass objects follow a locus in some near-to-mid-IR color-magnitude diagrams that is clearly separable from the standard L/T dwarf locus for field brown dwarfs.

Active Aging in Very Old Age and the Relevance of Psychological Aspects.

PubMed

Paúl, Constança; Teixeira, Laetitia; Ribeiro, Oscar

2017-01-01

Active aging encompasses a socially and individually designed mix of different domains that range from personal and familial, to social and professional. In being a key policy concept often focused on the young-old individuals, efforts in studying its dimensions in advanced ages have seldom been made. Nevertheless, there is a recognized need to promote adequate responses to the growing number of individuals reaching advanced ages and to recognize their specific dependability on health-related aspects, services attendance, social interactions, or on psychological characteristics for what it means to "age actively." This study provides a secondary analysis of data and follows the preceding work on the operationalization of the World Health Organization's (WHO) active aging model by means of an assessment protocol to measure which variables, within the model's determinants, contribute the most for an active aging process (1). Authors used the achieved model (composed by six factors: health, psychological component, cognitive performance, social relationships, biological component, and personality) and performed multi-group analysis of structural invariance to examine hypothetical differences between age groups (<75 years vs. ≥75 years) and to contrast obtained findings with the originally achieved model for the total sample (1,322 individuals aged 55 +). The structural covariances for the two age groups were statistically different. The comparison of components between age groups revealed a major relevance of the psychological component for the older age group. These findings reinforce the importance of psychological functioning in active aging in oldest old, and the need for further research on specific psychological features underlying the subjective meaning of active aging in more advanced ages.

Sexual Quality of Life and Aging: A Prospective Study of a Nationally Representative Sample

PubMed Central

Forbes, Miriam K.; Eaton, Nicholas R.; Krueger, Robert F.

2016-01-01

Unlike other life domains, sexual quality of life (SQoL) has a negative relationship with age. This study disentangled the effect of age in this relationship from confounding sociocultural influences (e.g., the period of time in which data were collected, and cohort differences), and aimed to understand the roles of other sexual domains (i.e., frequency, perceived control, thought and effort invested in sex, and number of sexual partners). We analyzed data from the longitudinal Midlife in the United States study (n = 6,278; age range 20–93), which were collected between 1995 and 2013. Repeated measures linear mixed-effects models showed that age was the most robust time-related predictor of declining SQoL. However, after the sexual domains were included in the model, age had a positive relationship with SQoL, and older adults’ SQoL was differentially influenced by the quality—not quantity—of sex. When partnership characteristics were included in the model, age was no longer related to SQoL. These findings suggest that aging may be associated with the acquisition of skills and strategies that can buffer age-related declines in SQoL, particularly in the context of a positive relationship. We summarize these findings as sexual wisdom. PMID:27798838

Sexual Quality of Life and Aging: A Prospective Study of a Nationally Representative Sample.

PubMed

Forbes, Miriam K; Eaton, Nicholas R; Krueger, Robert F

2017-02-01

Unlike other life domains, sexual quality of life (SQoL) has a negative relationship with age. This study disentangled the effect of age in this relationship from confounding sociocultural influences (e.g., the period of time in which data were collected, and cohort differences) and aimed to understand the roles of other sexual domains (i.e., frequency, perceived control, thought and effort invested in sex, and number of sexual partners). We analyzed data from the longitudinal Midlife in the United States study (n = 6,278; age range 20-93), which were collected between 1995 and 2013. Repeated measures linear mixed-effects models showed that age was the most robust time-related predictor of declining SQoL. However, after the sexual domains were included in the model, age had a positive relationship with SQoL and older adults' SQoL was differentially influenced by the quality-not quantity-of sex. When partnership characteristics were included in the model, age was no longer related to SQoL. These findings suggest that aging may be associated with the acquisition of skills and strategies that can buffer age-related declines in SQoL, particularly in the context of a positive relationship. We summarize these findings as sexual wisdom.

Advanced age negatively impacts survival in an experimental brain tumor model.

PubMed

Ladomersky, Erik; Zhai, Lijie; Gritsina, Galina; Genet, Matthew; Lauing, Kristen L; Wu, Meijing; James, C David; Wainwright, Derek A

2016-09-06

Glioblastoma (GBM) is the most common primary malignant brain tumor in adults, with an average age of 64 years at the time of diagnosis. To study GBM, a number of mouse brain tumor models have been utilized. In these animal models, subjects tend to range from 6 to 12 weeks of age, which is analogous to that of a human teenager. Here, we examined the impact of age on host immunity and the gene expression associated with immune evasion in immunocompetent mice engrafted with syngeneic intracranial GL261. The data indicate that, in mice with brain tumors, youth conveys an advantage to survival. While age did not affect the tumor-infiltrating T cell phenotype or quantity, we discovered that old mice express higher levels of the immunoevasion enzyme, IDO1, which was decreased by the presence of brain tumor. Interestingly, other genes associated with promoting immunosuppression including CTLA-4, PD-L1 and FoxP3, were unaffected by age. These data highlight the possibility that IDO1 contributes to faster GBM outgrowth with advanced age, providing rationale for future investigation into immunotherapeutic targeting in the future. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Soil organic matter persistence as a stochastic process: age and transit time distributions of carbon in soils

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sierra, Carlos

2017-04-01

The question of why some organic matter is more persistent than other that decomposes quickly in soils has sparkled a large amount of research in recent years. Persistence is commonly characterized as the turnover or mean residence time of specific compounds or soil organic matter (SOM) pools. However, turnover and residence times are ambiguous measures of persistence, which is better characterized by the probability distribution of ages in the system and in particular pools. We calculated age distributions for a wide range of SOM models, which showed long-tail distributions far from the mean value. Age and transit time distributions from a variety of models also showed: 1) transit times are lower than ages of SOM, 2) turnover times differ significantly from mean ages in slow cycling pools, 3) change in the inputs, without changes in the allocation of photosynthetic products, has no effect on transit times, but does affect system and pool ages. We propose an index to assess persistence of C in soils that can be derived from observations alone or from models. We also ask whether random chance is an important contributor to the persistence of SOM.

Stroke trends in an aging population. The Technology Assessment Methods Project Team.

PubMed

Niessen, L W; Barendregt, J J; Bonneux, L; Koudstaal, P J

1993-07-01

Trends in stroke incidence and survival determine changes in stroke morbidity and mortality. This study examines the extent of the incidence decline and survival improvement in the Netherlands from 1979 to 1989. In addition, it projects future changes in stroke morbidity during the period 1985 to 2005, when the country's population will be aging. A state-event transition model is used, which combines Dutch population projections and existing data on stroke epidemiology. Based on the clinical course of stroke, the model describes historical national age- and sex-specific hospital admission and mortality rates for stroke. It extrapolates observed trends and projects future changes in stroke morbidity rates. There is evidence of a continuing incidence decline. The most plausible rate of change is an annual decline of -1.9% (range, -1.7% to -2.1%) for men and -2.4% (range, -2.3% to -2.8%) for women. Projecting a constant mortality decline, the model shows a 35% decrease of the stroke incidence rate for a period of 20 years. Prevalence rates for major stroke will decline among the younger age groups but increase among the oldest because of increased survival in the latter. In absolute numbers this results in an 18% decrease of acute stroke episodes and an 11% increase of major stroke cases. The increase in survival cannot fully explain the observed mortality decline and, therefore, a concomitant incidence decline has to be assumed. Aging of the population partially outweighs the effect of an incidence decline on the total burden of stroke. Increase in cardiovascular survival leads to a further increase in major stroke prevalence among the oldest age groups.

Sex-specific developmental models for Creophilus maxillosus (L.) (Coleoptera: Staphylinidae): searching for larger accuracy of insect age estimates.

PubMed

Frątczak-Łagiewska, Katarzyna; Matuszewski, Szymon

2018-05-01

Differences in size between males and females, called the sexual size dimorphism, are common in insects. These differences may be followed by differences in the duration of development. Accordingly, it is believed that insect sex may be used to increase the accuracy of insect age estimates in forensic entomology. Here, the sex-specific differences in the development of Creophilus maxillosus were studied at seven constant temperatures. We have also created separate developmental models for males and females of C. maxillosus and tested them in a validation study to answer a question whether sex-specific developmental models improve the accuracy of insect age estimates. Results demonstrate that males of C. maxillosus developed significantly longer than females. The sex-specific and general models for the total immature development had the same optimal temperature range and similar developmental threshold but different thermal constant K, which was the largest in the case of the male-specific model and the smallest in the case of the female-specific model. Despite these differences, validation study revealed just minimal and statistically insignificant differences in the accuracy of age estimates using sex-specific and general thermal summation models. This finding indicates that in spite of statistically significant differences in the duration of immature development between females and males of C. maxillosus, there is no increase in the accuracy of insect age estimates while using the sex-specific thermal summation models compared to the general model. Accordingly, this study does not support the use of sex-specific developmental data for the estimation of insect age in forensic entomology.

Local- and regional-scale air pollution modelling (PM10) and exposure assessment for pregnancy trimesters, infancy, and childhood to age 15 years: Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents And Children (ALSPAC).

PubMed

Gulliver, John; Elliott, Paul; Henderson, John; Hansell, Anna L; Vienneau, Danielle; Cai, Yutong; McCrea, Adrienne; Garwood, Kevin; Boyd, Andy; Neal, Lucy; Agnew, Paul; Fecht, Daniela; Briggs, David; de Hoogh, Kees

2018-04-01

We established air pollution modelling to study particle (PM 10 ) exposures during pregnancy and infancy (1990-1993) through childhood and adolescence up to age ~15 years (1991-2008) for the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents And Children (ALSPAC) birth cohort. For pregnancy trimesters and infancy (birth to 6 months; 7 to 12 months) we used local (ADMS-Urban) and regional/long-range (NAME-III) air pollution models, with a model constant for local, non-anthropogenic sources. For longer exposure periods (annually and the average of birth to age ~8 and to age ~15 years to coincide with relevant follow-up clinics) we assessed spatial contrasts in local sources of PM 10 with a yearly-varying concentration for all background sources. We modelled PM 10 (μg/m 3 ) for 36,986 address locations over 19 years and then accounted for changes in address in calculating exposures for different periods: trimesters/infancy (n = 11,929); each year of life to age ~15 (n = 10,383). Intra-subject exposure contrasts were largest between pregnancy trimesters (5 th to 95 th centile: 24.4-37.3 μg/m 3 ) and mostly related to temporal variability in regional/long-range PM 10 . PM 10 exposures fell on average by 11.6 μg/m 3 from first year of life (mean concentration = 31.2 μg/m 3 ) to age ~15 (mean = 19.6 μg/m 3 ), and 5.4 μg/m 3 between follow-up clinics (age ~8 to age ~15). Spatial contrasts in 8-year average PM 10 exposures (5 th to 95 th centile) were relatively low: 25.4-30.0 μg/m 3 to age ~8 years and 20.7-23.9 μg/m 3 from age ~8 to age ~15 years. The contribution of local sources to total PM 10 was 18.5%-19.5% during pregnancy and infancy, and 14.4%-17.0% for periods leading up to follow-up clinics. Main roads within the study area contributed on average ~3.0% to total PM 10 exposures in all periods; 9.5% of address locations were within 50 m of a main road. Exposure estimates will be used in a number of planned epidemiological studies. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Theoretical uncertainties on the radius of low- and very-low-mass stars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tognelli, E.; Prada Moroni, P. G.; Degl'Innocenti, S.

2018-05-01

We performed an analysis of the main theoretical uncertainties that affect the radius of low- and very-low-mass stars predicted by current stellar models. We focused on stars in the mass range 0.1-1 M⊙, on both the zero-age main sequence (ZAMS) and on 1, 2, and 5 Gyr isochrones. First, we quantified the impact on the radius of the uncertainty of several quantities, namely the equation of state, radiative opacity, atmospheric models, convection efficiency, and initial chemical composition. Then, we computed the cumulative radius error stripe obtained by adding the radius variation due to all the analysed quantities. As a general trend, the radius uncertainty increases with the stellar mass. For ZAMS structures the cumulative error stripe of very-low-mass stars is about ±2 and ±3 per cent, while at larger masses it increases up to ±4 and ±5 per cent. The radius uncertainty gets larger and age dependent if isochrones are considered, reaching for M ˜ 1 M⊙ about +12(-15) per cent at an age of 5 Gyr. We also investigated the radius uncertainty at a fixed luminosity. In this case, the cumulative error stripe is the same for both ZAMS and isochrone models and it ranges from about ±4 to +7 and +9(-5) per cent. We also showed that the sole uncertainty on the chemical composition plays an important role in determining the radius error stripe, producing a radius variation that ranges between about ±1 and ±2 per cent on ZAMS models with fixed mass and about ±3 and ±5 per cent at a fixed luminosity.

A prediction model for early death in non-small cell lung cancer patients following curative-intent chemoradiotherapy.

PubMed

Jochems, Arthur; El-Naqa, Issam; Kessler, Marc; Mayo, Charles S; Jolly, Shruti; Matuszak, Martha; Faivre-Finn, Corinne; Price, Gareth; Holloway, Lois; Vinod, Shalini; Field, Matthew; Barakat, Mohamed Samir; Thwaites, David; de Ruysscher, Dirk; Dekker, Andre; Lambin, Philippe

2018-02-01

Early death after a treatment can be seen as a therapeutic failure. Accurate prediction of patients at risk for early mortality is crucial to avoid unnecessary harm and reducing costs. The goal of our work is two-fold: first, to evaluate the performance of a previously published model for early death in our cohorts. Second, to develop a prognostic model for early death prediction following radiotherapy. Patients with NSCLC treated with chemoradiotherapy or radiotherapy alone were included in this study. Four different cohorts from different countries were available for this work (N = 1540). The previous model used age, gender, performance status, tumor stage, income deprivation, no previous treatment given (yes/no) and body mass index to make predictions. A random forest model was developed by learning on the Maastro cohort (N = 698). The new model used performance status, age, gender, T and N stage, total tumor volume (cc), total tumor dose (Gy) and chemotherapy timing (none, sequential, concurrent) to make predictions. Death within 4 months of receiving the first radiotherapy fraction was used as the outcome. Early death rates ranged from 6 to 11% within the four cohorts. The previous model performed with AUC values ranging from 0.54 to 0.64 on the validation cohorts. Our newly developed model had improved AUC values ranging from 0.62 to 0.71 on the validation cohorts. Using advanced machine learning methods and informative variables, prognostic models for early mortality can be developed. Development of accurate prognostic tools for early mortality is important to inform patients about treatment options and optimize care.

A Comparison of the Developmental Stages Proposed by L. S. Vygotsky and J. Piaget.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stewin, L. L.; Martin, Jan

The present study was designed to explore the relationship between the theoretical models of cognitive development proposed by L. S. Vygotsky and J. Piaget. One hundred and four subjects aged four to sixteen years were selected. All subjects were in the average range of intelligence, were in the usual school grade for their age, and had no history…

State-level estimates of childhood obesity prevalence in the United States corrected for report bias.

PubMed

Long, M W; Ward, Z J; Resch, S C; Cradock, A L; Wang, Y C; Giles, C M; Gortmaker, S L

2016-10-01

State-specific obesity prevalence data are critical to public health efforts to address the childhood obesity epidemic. However, few states administer objectively measured body mass index (BMI) surveillance programs. This study reports state-specific childhood obesity prevalence by age and sex correcting for parent-reported child height and weight bias. As part of the Childhood Obesity Intervention Cost Effectiveness Study (CHOICES), we developed childhood obesity prevalence estimates for states for the period 2005-2010 using data from the 2010 US Census and American Community Survey (ACS), 2003-2004 and 2007-2008 National Survey of Children's Health (NSCH) (n=133 213), and 2005-2010 National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (NHANES) (n=9377; ages 2-17). Measured height and weight data from NHANES were used to correct parent-report bias in NSCH using a non-parametric statistical matching algorithm. Model estimates were validated against surveillance data from five states (AR, FL, MA, PA and TN) that conduct censuses of children across a range of grades. Parent-reported height and weight resulted in the largest overestimation of childhood obesity in males ages 2-5 years (NSCH: 42.36% vs NHANES: 11.44%). The CHOICES model estimates for this group (12.81%) and for all age and sex categories were not statistically different from NHANES. Our modeled obesity prevalence aligned closely with measured data from five validation states, with a 0.64 percentage point mean difference (range: 0.23-1.39) and a high correlation coefficient (r=0.96, P=0.009). Estimated state-specific childhood obesity prevalence ranged from 11.0 to 20.4%. Uncorrected estimates of childhood obesity prevalence from NSCH vary widely from measured national data, from a 278% overestimate among males aged 2-5 years to a 44% underestimate among females aged 14-17 years. This study demonstrates the validity of the CHOICES matching methods to correct the bias of parent-reported BMI data and highlights the need for public release of more recent data from the 2011 to 2012 NSCH.

Is prostate cancer screening cost-effective? A microsimulation model of prostate-specific antigen-based screening for British Columbia, Canada

PubMed Central

Pataky, Reka; Gulati, Roman; Etzioni, Ruth; Black, Peter; Chi, Kim N.; Coldman, Andrew J.; Pickles, Tom; Tyldesley, Scott; Peacock, Stuart

2015-01-01

Prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening for prostate cancer may reduce mortality, but it incurs considerable risk of overdiagnosis and potential harm to quality of life. Our objective was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of PSA screening, with and without adjustment for quality of life, for the British Columbia (BC) population. We adapted an existing natural history model using BC incidence, treatment, cost and mortality patterns. The modeled mortality benefit of screening derives from a stage-shift mechanism, assuming mortality reduction consistent with the European Study of Randomized Screening for Prostate Cancer. The model projected outcomes for 40 year-old men under 14 combinations of screening ages and frequencies. Cost and utility estimates were explored with deterministic sensitivity analysis. The incremental cost-effectiveness of regular screening ranged from $36,300/LYG, for screening every four years from ages 55-69, to $588,300/LYG, for screening every two years from ages 40-74. The marginal benefits of increasing screening frequency to two years or starting screening at age 40 were small and came at significant cost. After utility adjustment, all screening strategies resulted in a loss of QALYs; however, this result was very sensitive to utility estimates. Plausible outcomes under a range of screening strategies inform discussion of prostate cancer screening policy in BC and similar jurisdictions. Screening may be cost-effective but the sensitivity of results to utility values suggests individual preferences for quality versus quantity of life should be a key consideration. PMID:24443367

Air pollution and ED visits for asthma in Australian children: a case-crossover analysis.

PubMed

Jalaludin, Bin; Khalaj, Behnoosh; Sheppeard, Vicky; Morgan, Geoff

2008-08-01

We aimed to determine the effects of ambient air pollutants on emergency department (ED) visits for asthma in children. We obtained routinely collected ED visit data for asthma (ICD9 493) and air pollution (PM(10), PM(2.5), O(3), NO(2), CO and SO(2)) and meteorological data for metropolitan Sydney for 1997-2001. We used the time stratified case-crossover design and conditional logistic regression to model the association between air pollutants and ED visits for four age-groups (1-4, 5-9, 10-14 and 1-14 years). Estimated relative risks for asthma ED visits were calculated for an exposure corresponding to the inter-quartile range in pollutant level. We included same day average temperature, same day relative humidity, daily temperature range, school holidays and public holidays in all models. Associations between ambient air pollutants and ED visits for asthma in children were most consistent for all six air pollutants in the 1-4 years age-group, for particulates and CO in the 5-9 years age-group and for CO in the 10-14 years age-group. The greatest effects were most consistently observed for lag 0 and effects were greater in the warm months for particulates, O(3) and NO(2). In two pollutant models, effect sizes were generally smaller compared to those derived from single pollutant models. We observed the effects of ambient air pollutants on ED attendances for asthma in a city where the ambient concentrations of air pollutants are relatively low.

Incorporating diverse data and realistic complexity into demographic estimation procedures for sea otters

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tinker, M. Timothy; Doak, Daniel F.; Estes, James A.; Hatfield, Brian B.; Staedler, Michelle M.; Gross, Arthur

2006-01-01

Reliable information on historical and current population dynamics is central to understanding patterns of growth and decline in animal populations. We developed a maximum likelihood-based analysis to estimate spatial and temporal trends in age/sex-specific survival rates for the threatened southern sea otter (Enhydra lutris nereis), using annual population censuses and the age structure of salvaged carcass collections. We evaluated a wide range of possible spatial and temporal effects and used model averaging to incorporate model uncertainty into the resulting estimates of key vital rates and their variances. We compared these results to current demographic parameters estimated in a telemetry-based study conducted between 2001 and 2004. These results show that survival has decreased substantially from the early 1990s to the present and is generally lowest in the north-central portion of the population's range. The greatest temporal decrease in survival was for adult females, and variation in the survival of this age/sex class is primarily responsible for regulating population growth and driving population trends. Our results can be used to focus future research on southern sea otters by highlighting the life history stages and mortality factors most relevant to conservation. More broadly, we have illustrated how the powerful and relatively straightforward tools of information-theoretic-based model fitting can be used to sort through and parameterize quite complex demographic modeling frameworks. ?? 2006 by the Ecological Society of America.

Individual tree diameter increment model for managed even-aged stands of ponderosa pine throughout the western United States using a multilevel linear mixed effects model

Treesearch

Fabian C.C. Uzoh; William W. Oliver

2008-01-01

A diameter increment model is developed and evaluated for individual trees of ponderosa pine throughout the species range in the United States using a multilevel linear mixed model. Stochastic variability is broken down among period, locale, plot, tree and within-tree components. Covariates acting at tree and stand level, as breast height diameter, density, site index...

Comprehensive stellar population models and the disentanglement of age and metallicity effects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Worthey, Guy

1994-01-01

The construction of detailed models for intermediate and old stellar populations is described. Input parameters include metallicity (-2 less than (Fe/H) less than 0.5), single-burst age (between 1.5 and 17 Gyr), and initial mass function (IMF) exponent. Quantities output include broadband magnitudes, spectral energy distributions, surface brightness fluctuation magnitudes, and a suite of 21 absorption feature indices. The models are checked against a wide variety of available observations. Examinations of model output yield the following conclusions. (1) If the percentage change delta age/delta Z approximately equals 3/2 for two populations, they will appear almost identical in most indices. A few indices break this degeneracy by being either more abundance sensitive (Fe4668, Fe5015, Fe5709, and Fe5782) or more age sensitive (G4300, H beta, and presumably higher order Balmer lines) than usual. (2) Present uncertainties in stellar evolution are of the same magnitude as the effects of IMF and Y in the indices studied. (3) Changes in abundance ratios (like (Mg/Fe)) are predicted to be readily apparent in the spectra of old stellar populations. (4) The I-band flux of a stellar population is predicted to be nearly independent of metallicity and only modestly sensitive to age. The I band is therefore recommended for standard candle work or studies of M/L in galaxies. Other conclusions stem from this work. (1) Intercomparison of models and observations of two TiO indices seem to indicate variation of the (V/Ti) ratio among galaxies, but it is not clear how this observation ties into the standard picture of chemical enrichment. (2) Current estimates of (Fe/H) for the most metal-rich globulars that are based on integrated indices are probably slightly too high. (3) Colors of population models from different authors exhibit a substantial range. At solar metallicity and 13 Gyr, this range corresponds to an age error of roughly +/- 7 Gyr. Model colors from different authors applied in a differential sense have smaller uncertainties. (4) In the present models the dominant error for colors is probably the transformation from stellar atmospheric parameters to stellar colors. (5) Stellar B - V is difficult to model, and current spreads among different authors can reach 0.2 mag. (6) If known defects in the stellar flux library are corrected, the population model colors of this work in passbands redder than U would be accurate to roughly 0.03 mag in an absolute sense. These corrections are not made in the tables of model output.

Use of Stored Carbon Reserves in Growth of Temperate Tree Roots and Leaf Buds: Analyses Using Radiocarbon Measurements and Modeling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gaudinski, Julia B.; Torn, Margaret S.; Riley, W. J.

2009-01-01

Characterizing the use of C reserves in trees is important for understanding stress responses, impacts of asynchrony between photosynthesis and growth demand, and isotopic exchanges in plant dynamic studies. Using an inadvertent, whole ecosystem radiocarbon (14C) exposure in a temperate deciduous oak forest and numerical modeling, we calculated that the mean age of stored C used to grow leaf buds and new fine root tissue is 0.5-1.0 y. The mean age of stored C used to grow new roots was about 0.7 y across a range of realistic values of 14C inputs to the system. The amount of stored Cmore » used on an annual basis to grow fine roots was between 15 and 55% of total root growth, with the range defined by the assumed 14C input profile. We estimate the annually-averaged mean age of C in new root tissues is 1-5 months. Therefore, accounting for storage C use in isotope root models may be unnecessary in all but the fastest cycling root populations (i.e., mean age <1 y). Consistent with the whole ecosystem labeling results, we found, using "bomb-14C," that the mean C age of new root tissues in three additional forest sites (one deciduous, two coniferous) was less than 2 years. We conclude that in many ecosystem types, growth from stored C is insufficient to impact bomb-14C based estimates of long root lifetimes.« less

A Hydrostratigraphic Model and Alternatives for the Groundwater Flow and Contaminant Transport Model of Corrective Action Unit 97: Yucca Flat-Climax Mine, Lincoln and Nye Counties, Nevada

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Geotechnical Sciences Group Bechtel Nevada

2006-01-01

A new three-dimensional hydrostratigraphic framework model for the Yucca Flat-Climax Mine Corrective Action Unit was completed in 2005. The model area includes Yucca Flat and Climax Mine, former nuclear testing areas at the Nevada Test Site, and proximal areas. The model area is approximately 1,250 square kilometers in size and is geologically complex. Yucca Flat is a topographically closed basin typical of many valleys in the Basin and Range province. Faulted and tilted blocks of Tertiary-age volcanic rocks and underlying Proterozoic and Paleozoic sedimentary rocks form low ranges around the structural basin. During the Cretaceous Period a granitic intrusive wasmore » emplaced at the north end of Yucca Flat. A diverse set of geological and geophysical data collected over the past 50 years was used to develop a structural model and hydrostratigraphic system for the basin. These were integrated using EarthVision? software to develop the 3-dimensional hydrostratigraphic framework model. Fifty-six stratigraphic units in the model area were grouped into 25 hydrostratigraphic units based on each unit's propensity toward aquifer or aquitard characteristics. The authors organized the alluvial section into 3 hydrostratigraphic units including 2 aquifers and 1 confining unit. The volcanic units in the model area are organized into 13 hydrostratigraphic units that include 8 aquifers and 5 confining units. The underlying pre-Tertiary rocks are divided into 7 hydrostratigraphic units, including 3 aquifers and 4 confining units. Other units include 1 Tertiary-age sedimentary confining unit and 1 Mesozoic-age granitic confining unit. The model depicts the thickness, extent, and geometric relationships of these hydrostratigraphic units (''layers'' in the model) along with the major structural features (i.e., faults). The model incorporates 178 high-angle normal faults of Tertiary age and 2 low-angle thrust faults of Mesozoic age. The complexity of the model area and the non-uniqueness of some of the interpretations incorporated into the base model made it necessary to formulate alternative interpretations for some of the major features in the model. Five of these alternatives were developed so they could be modeled in the same fashion as the base model. This work was done for the U.S. Department of Energy, National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Site Office in support of the Underground Test Area subproject of the Environmental Restoration Project.« less

Where is the 1-million-year-old ice at Dome A?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Liyun; Moore, John C.; Sun, Bo; Tang, Xueyuan; Guo, Xiaoran

2018-05-01

Ice fabric influences the rheology of ice, and hence the age-depth profile at ice core drilling sites. To investigate the age-depth profile to be expected of the ongoing deep ice coring at Kunlun station, Dome A, we use the depth-varying anisotropic fabric suggested by the recent polarimetric measurements around Dome A along with prescribed fabrics ranging from isotropic through girdle to single maximum in a three-dimensional, thermo-mechanically coupled full-Stokes model of a 70 × 70 km2 domain around Kunlun station. This model allows for the simulation of the near basal ice temperature and age, and ice flow around the location of the Chinese deep ice coring site. Ice fabrics and geothermal heat flux strongly affect the vertical advection and basal temperature which consequently control the age profile. Constraining modeled age-depth profiles with dated radar isochrones to 2/3 ice depth, the surface vertical velocity, and also the spatial variability of a radar isochrones dated to 153.3 ka BP, limits the age of the deep ice at Kunlun to between 649 and 831 ka, a much smaller range than previously inferred. The simple interpretation of the polarimetric radar fabric data that we use produces best fits with a geothermal heat flux of 55 mW m-2. A heat flux of 50 mW m-2 is too low to fit the deeper radar layers, and 60 mW m-2 leads to unrealistic surface velocities. The modeled basal temperature at Kunlun reaches the pressure melting point with a basal melting rate of 2.2-2.7 mm a-1. Using the spatial distribution of basal temperatures and the best fit fabric suggests that within 400 m of Kunlun station, 1-million-year-old ice may be found 200 m above the bed, and that there are large regions where even older ice is well above the bedrock within 5-6 km of the Kunlun station.

Developmental aspects of a life course approach to healthy ageing

PubMed Central

Cooper, C.; Aihie Sayer, A.; Eendebak, R. J.; Clough, G. F.; Beard, J. R.

2016-01-01

Abstract We examine the mechanistic basis and wider implications of adopting a developmental perspective on human ageing. Previous models of ageing have concentrated on its genetic basis, or the detrimental effects of accumulated damage, but also have raised issues about whether ageing can be viewed as adaptive itself, or is a consequence of other adaptive processes, for example if maintenance and repair processes in the period up to reproduction are traded off against later decline in function. A life course model places ageing in the context of the attainment of peak capacity for a body system, starting in early development when plasticity permits changes in structure and function induced by a range of environmental stimuli, followed by a period of decline, the rate of which depends on the peak attained as well as the later life conditions. Such path dependency in the rate of ageing may offer new insights into its modification. Focusing on musculoskeletal and cardiovascular function, we discuss this model and the possible underlying mechanisms, including endothelial function, oxidative stress, stem cells and nutritional factors such as vitamin D status. Epigenetic changes induced during developmental plasticity, and immune function may provide a common mechanistic process underlying a life course model of ageing. The life course trajectory differs in high and low resource settings. New insights into the developmental components of the life course model of ageing may lead to the design of biomarkers of later chronic disease risk and to new interventions to promote healthy ageing, with important implications for public health. PMID:26518329

Developmental aspects of a life course approach to healthy ageing.

PubMed

Hanson, M A; Cooper, C; Aihie Sayer, A; Eendebak, R J; Clough, G F; Beard, J R

2016-04-15

We examine the mechanistic basis and wider implications of adopting a developmental perspective on human ageing. Previous models of ageing have concentrated on its genetic basis, or the detrimental effects of accumulated damage, but also have raised issues about whether ageing can be viewed as adaptive itself, or is a consequence of other adaptive processes, for example if maintenance and repair processes in the period up to reproduction are traded off against later decline in function. A life course model places ageing in the context of the attainment of peak capacity for a body system, starting in early development when plasticity permits changes in structure and function induced by a range of environmental stimuli, followed by a period of decline, the rate of which depends on the peak attained as well as the later life conditions. Such path dependency in the rate of ageing may offer new insights into its modification. Focusing on musculoskeletal and cardiovascular function, we discuss this model and the possible underlying mechanisms, including endothelial function, oxidative stress, stem cells and nutritional factors such as vitamin D status. Epigenetic changes induced during developmental plasticity, and immune function may provide a common mechanistic process underlying a life course model of ageing. The life course trajectory differs in high and low resource settings. New insights into the developmental components of the life course model of ageing may lead to the design of biomarkers of later chronic disease risk and to new interventions to promote healthy ageing, with important implications for public health. © 2015 The Authors. The Journal of Physiology © 2015 The Physiological Society.

Developing a dimensional model for successful cognitive and emotional aging.

PubMed

Vahia, Ipsit V; Thompson, Wesley K; Depp, Colin A; Allison, Matthew; Jeste, Dilip V

2012-04-01

There is currently a lack of consensus on the definition of successful aging (SA) and existing implementations have omitted constructs associated with SA. We used empirical methods to develop a dimensional model of SA that incorporates a wider range of associated variables, and we examined the relationship among these components using factor analysis and Bayesian Belief Nets. We administered a successful aging questionnaire comprising several standardized measures related to SA to a sample of 1948 older women enrolled in the San Diego site of the Women's Health Initiative study. The SA-related variables we included in the model were self-rated successful aging, depression severity, physical and emotional functioning, optimism, resilience, attitude towards own aging, self-efficacy, and cognitive ability. After adjusting for age, education and income, we fitted an exploratory factor analysis model to the SA-related variables and then, in order to address relationships among these factors, we computed a Bayesian Belief Net (BBN) using rotated factor scores. The SA-related variables loaded onto five factors. Based on the loading, we labeled the factors as follows: self-rated successful aging, cognition, psychosocial protective factors, physical functioning, and emotional functioning. In the BBN, self-rated successful aging emerged as the primary downstream factor and exhibited significant partial correlations with psychosocial protective factors, physical/general status and mental/emotional status but not with cognitive ability. Our study represents a step forward in developing a dimensional model of SA. Our findings also point to a potential role for psychiatry in improving successful aging by managing depressive symptoms and developing psychosocial interventions to improve self-efficacy, resilience, and optimism.

A Bayesian estimation of the helioseismic solar age

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonanno, A.; Fröhlich, H.-E.

2015-08-01

Context. The helioseismic determination of the solar age has been a subject of several studies because it provides us with an independent estimation of the age of the solar system. Aims: We present the Bayesian estimates of the helioseismic age of the Sun, which are determined by means of calibrated solar models that employ different equations of state and nuclear reaction rates. Methods: We use 17 frequency separation ratios r02(n) = (νn,l = 0-νn-1,l = 2)/(νn,l = 1-νn-1,l = 1) from 8640 days of low-ℓBiSON frequencies and consider three likelihood functions that depend on the handling of the errors of these r02(n) ratios. Moreover, we employ the 2010 CODATA recommended values for Newton's constant, solar mass, and radius to calibrate a large grid of solar models spanning a conceivable range of solar ages. Results: It is shown that the most constrained posterior distribution of the solar age for models employing Irwin EOS with NACRE reaction rates leads to t⊙ = 4.587 ± 0.007 Gyr, while models employing the Irwin EOS and Adelberger, et al. (2011, Rev. Mod. Phys., 83, 195) reaction rate have t⊙ = 4.569 ± 0.006 Gyr. Implementing OPAL EOS in the solar models results in reduced evidence ratios (Bayes factors) and leads to an age that is not consistent with the meteoritic dating of the solar system. Conclusions: An estimate of the solar age that relies on an helioseismic age indicator such as r02(n) turns out to be essentially independent of the type of likelihood function. However, with respect to model selection, abandoning any information concerning the errors of the r02(n) ratios leads to inconclusive results, and this stresses the importance of evaluating the trustworthiness of error estimates.

Detection and evaluation of DNA methylation markers found at SCGN and KLF14 loci to estimate human age.

PubMed

Alghanim, Hussain; Antunes, Joana; Silva, Deborah Soares Bispo Santos; Alho, Clarice Sampaio; Balamurugan, Kuppareddi; McCord, Bruce

2017-11-01

Recent developments in the analysis of epigenetic DNA methylation patterns have demonstrated that certain genetic loci show a linear correlation with chronological age. It is the goal of this study to identify a new set of epigenetic methylation markers for the forensic estimation of human age. A total number of 27 CpG sites at three genetic loci, SCGN, DLX5 and KLF14, were examined to evaluate the correlation of their methylation status with age. These sites were evaluated using 72 blood samples and 91 saliva samples collected from volunteers with ages ranging from 5 to 73 years. DNA was bisulfite modified followed by PCR amplification and pyrosequencing to determine the level of DNA methylation at each CpG site. In this study, certain CpG sites in SCGN and KLF14 loci showed methylation levels that were correlated with chronological age, however, the tested CpG sites in DLX5 did not show a correlation with age. Using a 52-saliva sample training set, two age-predictor models were developed by means of a multivariate linear regression analysis for age prediction. The two models performed similarly with a single-locus model explaining 85% of the age variance at a mean absolute deviation of 5.8 years and a dual-locus model explaining 84% of the age variance with a mean absolute deviation of 6.2 years. In the validation set, the mean absolute deviation was measured to be 8.0 years and 7.1 years for the single- and dual-locus model, respectively. Another age predictor model was also developed using a 40-blood sample training set that accounted for 71% of the age variance. This model gave a mean absolute deviation of 6.6 years for the training set and 10.3years for the validation set. The results indicate that specific CpGs in SCGN and KLF14 can be used as potential epigenetic markers to estimate age using saliva and blood specimens. These epigenetic markers could provide important information in cases where the determination of a suspect's age is critical in developing investigative leads. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Intrahepatic fat, abdominal adipose tissues, and metabolic state: magnetic resonance imaging study.

PubMed

Yaskolka Meir, Anat; Tene, Lilac; Cohen, Noa; Shelef, Ilan; Schwarzfuchs, Dan; Gepner, Yftach; Zelicha, Hila; Rein, Michal; Bril, Nitzan; Serfaty, Dana; Kenigsbuch, Shira; Chassidim, Yoash; Sarusy, Benjamin; Dicker, Dror; Thiery, Joachim; Ceglarek, Uta; Stumvoll, Michael; Blüher, Matthias; Stampfer, Meir J; Rudich, Assaf; Shai, Iris

2017-07-01

Intrahepatic fat (IHF) is best known to associate with waist circumference (WC) and visceral adipose tissue (VAT), but its relation to abdominal subcutaneous adipose tissue is controversial. While IHF ≥ 5% dichotomously defines fatty liver, %IHF is rarely considered as a continuous variable that includes the normal range. In this study, we aimed to evaluate %IHF association with abdominal fat subdepots, pancreatic, and renal-sinus fats. We evaluated %IHF, abdominal fat subdepots, %pancreatic, and renal-sinus fats, among individuals with moderate abdominal obesity, using 3-Tesla magnetic resonance imaging. Among 275 participants, %IHF widely ranged (0.01%-50.4%) and was lower in women (1.6%) than men (7.3%; P < .001). In an age, sex, and WC-adjusted models, VAT area (P < .006) was directly associated with %IHF, while superficial-subcutaneous adipose tissue proportion was inversely associated with %IHF (P < .006). In these models, renal-sinus fat was positively associated with %IHF (P = .005). In an age, sex, WC, and VAT-adjusted models, elevated liver enzymes, glycemic, lipid, and inflammatory biomarkers were associated with increased %IHF (P < .003 for all). In these models, the associations remained robust even within the normal range strata of IHF < 5% for triglycerides and chemerin (P ≤ .004 for all). For the diagnosis of fatty liver, the joint area under the curve of WC, alanine-aminotransferase, triglycerides/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance was 0.84(95% CI, 0.79-0.89). Intrahepatic fat is differentially associated with abdominal fat subdepots. Intrahepatic-fat as a continuous variable could be predicted by specific traditional parameters, even within the current normal range, and partially independent of VAT. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Reference ranges for midupper arm circumference, upper arm muscle area, and upper arm fat area in US children and adolescents aged 1-20 y.

PubMed

Addo, O Yaw; Himes, John H; Zemel, Babette S

2017-01-01

Midupper arm circumference (MUAC) has long been used in anthropometric assessments of nutritional status in field settings, especially in emergency situations, but percentile ranges for healthy, well-nourished children are currently unavailable. We developed reference curves for MUAC and derived measures of arm muscle area (AMA) and arm fat area (AFA) on the basis of the population used in the current CDC body mass index growth charts. We analyzed cross-sectional MUAC and triceps (triceps skinfold thickness) data from 32,952 US children aged 1-20 y. Generalized additive models for location, scale, and shape were used to calculate semiparametric smoothed percentiles and L, M, and S coefficients needed for z-score estimation by age and sex. Equations were developed with the use of the height-for-age z score (HAZ) to adjust for the associations of stature with upper arm measures. MUAC increased with age steadily throughout the growing period. For children <5 y old, lower percentile ranges varied markedly across age and sex such that the single cutoff (<11.5 or 12.5 cm) for field screening of acute malnutrition did not track along the same percentile. AFA and AMA growth patterns exhibited sex-specific trends including multiple distinct age-related inflections that were more pronounced in males for AFA-for-age than in females. HAZ and age were substantially and independently related with all arm measures. The new reference percentile ranges for midupper arm measures for healthy children provide a useful nutritional assessment tool in a wide variety of settings. Height status (HAZ) has complex independent associations with arm measures irrespective of the distributional ranking by age and sex. Prediction equations that account for these effects further extend the practical use of the new curves. © 2017 American Society for Nutrition.

A spatiotemporal atlas of MR intensity, tissue probability and shape of the fetal brain with application to segmentation

PubMed Central

Habas, Piotr A.; Kim, Kio; Corbett-Detig, James M.; Rousseau, Francois; Glenn, Orit A.; Barkovich, A. James; Studholme, Colin

2010-01-01

Modeling and analysis of MR images of the developing human brain is a challenge due to rapid changes in brain morphology and morphometry. We present an approach to the construction of a spatiotemporal atlas of the fetal brain with temporal models of MR intensity, tissue probability and shape changes. This spatiotemporal model is created from a set of reconstructed MR images of fetal subjects with different gestational ages. Groupwise registration of manual segmentations and voxelwise nonlinear modeling allow us to capture the appearance, disappearance and spatial variation of brain structures over time. Applying this model to atlas-based segmentation, we generate age-specific MR templates and tissue probability maps and use them to initialize automatic tissue delineation in new MR images. The choice of model parameters and the final performance are evaluated using clinical MR scans of young fetuses with gestational ages ranging from 20.57 to 24.71 weeks. Experimental results indicate that quadratic temporal models can correctly capture growth-related changes in the fetal brain anatomy and provide improvement in accuracy of atlas-based tissue segmentation. PMID:20600970

Great talent, excellent voices-no problem for pubertal girls?

PubMed

Decoster, Wivine; Ghesquiere, Sofie; Van Steenberge, Sebastiaan

2008-01-01

This research on 17 girls (aged 9;9 y to 16;11 y) singing in an established choir was focused on two issues: 1) the variety in physical and vocal development using Gackle's model, and 2) the matching of vocal demands and abilities. Developmental and acoustical data on the speaking and singing voice revealed considerable variation between individual girl singers. The model was greatly applicable. However, all girls had a greater total singing range, mainly in favour of the lower tones, and 11 girls used a lower speaking fundamental frequency. A third of the girls met the vocal and developmental features of their stage at a younger age. Next the lower limit of the frequency range of all girls was several semitones below the lowest notes of the pieces being worked on at the time of the experiment. However the upper limit of the pieces coincided with or exceeded their upper frequency limit.

Frequency domain reflectometry modeling for nondestructive evaluation of nuclear power plant cables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glass, S. W.; Fifield, L. S.; Jones, A. M.; Hartman, T. S.

2018-04-01

Cable insulation polymers are among the more susceptible materials to age-related degradation within a nuclear power plant. This is recognized by both regulators and utilities, so all plants have developed cable aging management programs to detect damage before critical component failure in compliance with regulatory guidelines. Although a wide range of tools are available to evaluate cables and cable systems, cable aging management programs vary in how condition monitoring and nondestructive examinations are conducted as utilities search for the most reliable and cost-effective ways to assess cable system condition. Frequency domain reflectometry (FDR) is emerging as one valuable tool to locate and assess damaged portions of a cable system with minimal cost and only requires access in most cases to one of the cable terminal ends. Since laboratory studies to evaluate the use of FDR for inspection of aged cables can be expensive and data interpretation may be confounded by multiple factors which influence results, a model-based approach is desired to parametrically investigate the effect of insulation material damage in a controlled manner. This work describes development of a physics-based FDR model which uses finite element simulations of cable segments in conjunction with cascaded circuit element simulations to efficiently study a cable system. One or more segments of the cable system model have altered physical or electrical properties which represent the degree of damage and the location of the damage in the system. This circuit model is then subjected to a simulated FDR examination. The modeling approach is verified using several experimental cases and by comparing it to a commercial simulator suitable for simulation of some cable configurations. The model is used to examine a broad range of parameters including defect length, defect profile, degree of degradation, number and location of defects, FDR bandwidth, and addition of impedance-matched extensions to minimize the end-shadow effect.

Confirmatory Analysis of Simultaneous, Sequential, and Achievement Factors on the K-ABC at 11 Age Levels Ranging from 2 1/2 to 12 1/2 years.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Willson, Victor L.; And Others

1985-01-01

Presents results of confirmatory factor analysis of the Kaufman Assessment Battery for children which is based on the underlying theoretical model of sequential, simultaneous, and achievement factors. Found support for the two-factor, simultaneous and sequential processing model. (MCF)

Cardio-Respiratory Responses to Maximal Work During Arm and Bicycle Ergometry.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Israel, Richard G.; Hardison, George T.

This study compared cardio-respiratory responses during maximal arm work using a Monarch Model 880 Rehab Trainer to cardio-respiratory responses during maximal leg work on a Monarch Model 850 Bicycle Ergometer. Subjects for the investigation were 17 male university students ranging from 18 to 28 years of age. The specific variables compared…

Determinants of Clostridium difficile Infection Incidence Across Diverse United States Geographic Locations

PubMed Central

Lessa, Fernanda C.; Mu, Yi; Winston, Lisa G.; Dumyati, Ghinwa K.; Farley, Monica M.; Beldavs, Zintars G.; Kast, Kelly; Holzbauer, Stacy M.; Meek, James I.; Cohen, Jessica; McDonald, L. Clifford; Fridkin, Scott K.

2014-01-01

Background  Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) is no longer restricted to hospital settings, and population-based incidence measures are needed. Understanding the determinants of CDI incidence will allow for more meaningful comparisons of rates and accurate national estimates. Methods  Data from active population- and laboratory-based CDI surveillance in 7 US states were used to identify CDI cases (ie, residents with positive C difficile stool specimen without a positive test in the prior 8 weeks). Cases were classified as community-associated (CA) if stool was collected as outpatients or ≤3 days of admission and no overnight healthcare facility stay in the past 12 weeks; otherwise, cases were classified as healthcare-associated (HA). Two regression models, one for CA-CDI and another for HA-CDI, were built to evaluate predictors of high CDI incidence. Site-specific incidence was adjusted based on the regression models. Results  Of 10 062 cases identified, 32% were CA. Crude incidence varied by geographic area; CA-CDI ranged from 28.2 to 79.1/100 000 and HA-CDI ranged from 45.7 to 155.9/100 000. Independent predictors of higher CA-CDI incidence were older age, white race, female gender, and nucleic acid amplification test (NAAT) use. For HA-CDI, older age and a greater number of inpatient-days were predictors. After adjusting for relevant predictors, the range of incidence narrowed greatly; CA-CDI rates ranged from 30.7 to 41.3/100 000 and HA-CDI rates ranged from 58.5 to 94.8/100 000. Conclusions  Differences in CDI incidence across geographic areas can be partially explained by differences in NAAT use, age, race, sex, and inpatient-days. Variation in antimicrobial use may contribute to the remaining differences in incidence. PMID:25734120

Determinants of Clostridium difficile Infection Incidence Across Diverse United States Geographic Locations.

PubMed

Lessa, Fernanda C; Mu, Yi; Winston, Lisa G; Dumyati, Ghinwa K; Farley, Monica M; Beldavs, Zintars G; Kast, Kelly; Holzbauer, Stacy M; Meek, James I; Cohen, Jessica; McDonald, L Clifford; Fridkin, Scott K

2014-09-01

Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) is no longer restricted to hospital settings, and population-based incidence measures are needed. Understanding the determinants of CDI incidence will allow for more meaningful comparisons of rates and accurate national estimates. Data from active population- and laboratory-based CDI surveillance in 7 US states were used to identify CDI cases (ie, residents with positive C difficile stool specimen without a positive test in the prior 8 weeks). Cases were classified as community-associated (CA) if stool was collected as outpatients or ≤3 days of admission and no overnight healthcare facility stay in the past 12 weeks; otherwise, cases were classified as healthcare-associated (HA). Two regression models, one for CA-CDI and another for HA-CDI, were built to evaluate predictors of high CDI incidence. Site-specific incidence was adjusted based on the regression models. Of 10 062 cases identified, 32% were CA. Crude incidence varied by geographic area; CA-CDI ranged from 28.2 to 79.1/100 000 and HA-CDI ranged from 45.7 to 155.9/100 000. Independent predictors of higher CA-CDI incidence were older age, white race, female gender, and nucleic acid amplification test (NAAT) use. For HA-CDI, older age and a greater number of inpatient-days were predictors. After adjusting for relevant predictors, the range of incidence narrowed greatly; CA-CDI rates ranged from 30.7 to 41.3/100 000 and HA-CDI rates ranged from 58.5 to 94.8/100 000. Differences in CDI incidence across geographic areas can be partially explained by differences in NAAT use, age, race, sex, and inpatient-days. Variation in antimicrobial use may contribute to the remaining differences in incidence.

Sensitivity of black carbon concentrations and climate impact to aging and scavenging in OsloCTM2-M7

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lund, Marianne T.; Berntsen, Terje K.; Samset, Bjørn H.

2017-05-01

Accurate representation of black carbon (BC) concentrations in climate models is a key prerequisite for understanding its net climate impact. BC aging and scavenging are treated very differently in current models. Here, we examine the sensitivity of three-dimensional (3-D), temporally resolved BC concentrations to perturbations to individual model processes in the chemistry transport model OsloCTM2-M7. The main goals are to identify processes related to aerosol aging and scavenging where additional observational constraints may most effectively improve model performance, in particular for BC vertical profiles, and to give an indication of how model uncertainties in the BC life cycle propagate into uncertainties in climate impacts. Coupling OsloCTM2 with the microphysical aerosol module M7 allows us to investigate aging processes in more detail than possible with a simpler bulk parameterization. Here we include, for the first time in this model, a treatment of condensation of nitric acid on BC. Using kernels, we also estimate the range of radiative forcing and global surface temperature responses that may result from perturbations to key tunable parameters in the model. We find that BC concentrations in OsloCTM2-M7 are particularly sensitive to convective scavenging and the inclusion of condensation by nitric acid. The largest changes are found at higher altitudes around the Equator and at low altitudes over the Arctic. Convective scavenging of hydrophobic BC, and the amount of sulfate required for BC aging, are found to be key parameters, potentially reducing bias against HIAPER Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPO) flight-based measurements by 60 to 90 %. Even for extensive tuning, however, the total impact on global-mean surface temperature is estimated to less than 0.04 K. Similar results are found when nitric acid is allowed to condense on the BC aerosols. We conclude, in line with previous studies, that a shorter atmospheric BC lifetime broadly improves the comparison with measurements over the Pacific. However, we also find that the model-measurement discrepancies can not be uniquely attributed to uncertainties in a single process or parameter. Model development therefore needs to be focused on improvements to individual processes, supported by a broad range of observational and experimental data, rather than tuning of individual, effective parameters such as the global BC lifetime.

Unprovoked atrial tachyarrhythmias in aging spontaneously hypertensive rats: the role of the autonomic nervous system.

PubMed

Scridon, Alina; Gallet, Clément; Arisha, Moussa M; Oréa, Valérie; Chapuis, Bruno; Li, Na; Tabib, Alain; Christé, Georges; Barrès, Christian; Julien, Claude; Chevalier, Philippe

2012-08-01

Experimental models of unprovoked atrial tachyarrhythmias (AT) in conscious, ambulatory animals are lacking. We hypothesized that the aging, spontaneously hypertensive rat (SHR) may provide such a model. Baseline ECG recordings were acquired with radiotelemetry in eight young (14-wk-old) and eight aging (55-wk-old) SHRs and in two groups of four age-matched Wistar-Kyoto (WKY) rats. Quantification of AT and heart rate variability (HRV) analysis were performed based on 24-h ECG recordings in unrestrained rats. All animals were submitted to an emotional stress protocol (air-jet). In SHRs, carbamylcholine injections were also performed. Spontaneous AT episodes were observed in all eight aging SHRs (median, 91.5; range, 4-444 episodes/24 h), but not in young SHRs or WKY rats. HRV analysis demonstrated significantly decreased low frequency components in aging SHRs compared with age-matched WKY rats (P < 0.01) and decreased low/high frequency ratios in both young (P < 0.01) and aging (P = 0.01) SHRs compared with normotensive controls. In aging SHRs, emotional stress significantly reduced the number of arrhythmic events, whereas carbamylcholine triggered AT and significantly increased atrial electrical instability. This study reports the occurrence of unprovoked episodes of atrial arrhythmia in hypertensive rats, and their increased incidence with aging. Our results suggest that autonomic imbalance with relative vagal hyperactivity may be responsible for the increased atrial arrhythmogenicity observed in this model. We also provide evidence that, in this model, the sympatho-vagal imbalance preceded the occurrence of arrhythmia. These results indicate that aging SHRs may provide valuable insight into the understanding of atrial arrhythmias.

A longitudinal study of age-related changes in intraocular pressure: the Kangbuk Samsung Health Study.

PubMed

Zhao, Di; Kim, Myung Hun; Pastor-Barriuso, Roberto; Chang, Yoosoo; Ryu, Seungho; Zhang, Yiyi; Rampal, Sanjay; Shin, Hocheol; Kim, Joon Mo; Friedman, David S; Guallar, Eliseo; Cho, Juhee

2014-09-02

To examine the longitudinal association between age and intraocular pressure (IOP) in a large sample of Korean men and women. We conducted a prospective cohort study of 274,064 young and middle-aged Korean adults with normal fundoscopic findings, following them from January 1, 2002, to February 28, 2010. Health exams were scheduled annually or biennially. At each visit, IOP was measured in both eyes using automated noncontact tonometers. The longitudinal change in IOP with age was evaluated using three-level mixed models for longitudinal paired-eye data, accounting for correlations between paired eyes and repeated measurements over time. In fully adjusted models, the average longitudinal change in IOP per 1-year increase in age was -0.065 mm Hg (95% confidence interval [CI] -0.068 to -0.063), with marked sex differences (P < 0.001). In men, the average annual IOP change was -0.093 mm Hg (95% CI -0.096 to -0.091) throughout follow-up. In women, the average annual IOP change was -0.006 mm Hg (95% CI -0.010 to -0.003), with a relatively flat association in the age range of 30 to 59 years and more marked annual decreases at younger and older ages. Intraocular pressure was inversely associated with age in a large cohort of Korean adults attending health-screening visits. For men, this inverse association was observed throughout the entire age range, while for women it was evident only in younger (<30 years of age) and older (≥60 years of age) women, with no association in women aged 30 to 59. Further research is needed to better understand the underlying mechanisms and to reconsider cutoffs for defining high IOP by age and sex groups in Asian populations. Copyright 2014 The Association for Research in Vision and Ophthalmology, Inc.

A multinational study of mental disorders, marriage, and divorce.

PubMed

Breslau, J; Miller, E; Jin, R; Sampson, N A; Alonso, J; Andrade, L H; Bromet, E J; de Girolamo, G; Demyttenaere, K; Fayyad, J; Fukao, A; Gălăon, M; Gureje, O; He, Y; Hinkov, H R; Hu, C; Kovess-Masfety, V; Matschinger, H; Medina-Mora, M E; Ormel, J; Posada-Villa, J; Sagar, R; Scott, K M; Kessler, R C

2011-12-01

Estimate predictive associations of mental disorders with marriage and divorce in a cross-national sample. Population surveys of mental disorders included assessment of age at first marriage in 19 countries (n = 46,128) and age at first divorce in a subset of 12 countries (n = 30,729). Associations between mental disorders and subsequent marriage and divorce were estimated in discrete time survival models. Fourteen of 18 premarital mental disorders are associated with lower likelihood of ever marrying (odds ratios ranging from 0.6 to 0.9), but these associations vary across ages of marriage. Associations between premarital mental disorders and marriage are generally null for early marriage (age 17 or younger), but negative associations come to predominate at later ages. All 18 mental disorders are positively associated with divorce (odds ratios ranging from 1.2 to 1.8). Three disorders, specific phobia, major depression, and alcohol abuse, are associated with the largest population attributable risk proportions for both marriage and divorce. This evidence adds to research demonstrating adverse effects of mental disorders on life course altering events across a diverse range of socioeconomic and cultural settings. These effects should be included in considerations of public health investments in preventing and treating mental disorders. © 2011 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

A multinational study of mental disorders, marriage, and divorce

PubMed Central

Breslau, J.; Miller, E.; Jin, R.; Sampson, N. A.; Alonso, J.; Andrade, L. H.; Bromet, E. J.; de Girolamo, G.; Demyttenaere, K.; Fayyad, J.; Fukao, A.; Gălăon, M.; Gureje, O.; He, Y.; Hinkov, H. R.; Hu, C.; Kovess-Masfety, V.; Matschinger, H.; Medina-Mora, M. E.; Ormel, J.; Posada-Villa, J.; Sagar, R.; Scott, K. M.; Kessler, R. C.

2014-01-01

Objective Estimate predictive associations of mental disorders with marriage and divorce in a cross-national sample. Method Population surveys of mental disorders included assessment of age at first marriage in 19 countries (n = 46 128) and age at first divorce in a subset of 12 countries (n = 30 729). Associations between mental disorders and subsequent marriage and divorce were estimated in discrete time survival models. Results Fourteen of 18 premarital mental disorders are associated with lower likelihood of ever marrying (odds ratios ranging from 0.6 to 0.9), but these associations vary across ages of marriage. Associations between premarital mental disorders and marriage are generally null for early marriage (age 17 or younger), but negative associations come to predominate at later ages. All 18 mental disorders are positively associated with divorce (odds ratios ranging from 1.2 to 1.8). Three disorders, specific phobia, major depression, and alcohol abuse, are associated with the largest population attributable risk proportions for both marriage and divorce. Conclusion This evidence adds to research demonstrating adverse effects of mental disorders on life course altering events across a diverse range of socioeconomic and cultural settings. These effects should be included in considerations of public health investments in preventing and treating mental disorders. PMID:21534936

A Comparison of Tension and Compression Creep in a Polymeric Composite and the Effects of Physical Aging on Creep Behavior

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gates, Thomas S.; Veazie, David R.; Brinson, L. Catherine

1996-01-01

Experimental and analytical methods were used to investigate the similarities and differences of the effects of physical aging on creep compliance of IM7/K3B composite loaded in tension and compression. Two matrix dominated loading modes, shear and transverse, were investigated for two load cases, tension and compression. The tests, run over a range of sub-glass transition temperatures, provided material constants, material master curves and aging related parameters. Comparing results from the short-term data indicated that although trends in the data with respect to aging time and aging temperature are similar, differences exist due to load direction and mode. The analytical model used for predicting long-term behavior using short-term data as input worked equally as well for the tension or compression loaded cases. Comparison of the loading modes indicated that the predictive model provided more accurate long term predictions for the shear mode as compared to the transverse mode. Parametric studies showed the usefulness of the predictive model as a tool for investigating long-term performance and compliance acceleration due to temperature.

Importance of Multimodal MRI in Characterizing Brain Tissue and Its Potential Application for Individual Age Prediction.

PubMed

Cherubini, Andrea; Caligiuri, Maria Eugenia; Peran, Patrice; Sabatini, Umberto; Cosentino, Carlo; Amato, Francesco

2016-09-01

This study presents a voxel-based multiple regression analysis of different magnetic resonance image modalities, including anatomical T1-weighted, T2(*) relaxometry, and diffusion tensor imaging. Quantitative parameters sensitive to complementary brain tissue alterations, including morphometric atrophy, mineralization, microstructural damage, and anisotropy loss, were compared in a linear physiological aging model in 140 healthy subjects (range 20-74 years). The performance of different predictors and the identification of the best biomarker of age-induced structural variation were compared without a priori anatomical knowledge. The best quantitative predictors in several brain regions were iron deposition and microstructural damage, rather than macroscopic tissue atrophy. Age variations were best resolved with a combination of markers, suggesting that multiple predictors better capture age-induced tissue alterations. The results of the linear model were used to predict apparent age in different regions of individual brain. This approach pointed to a number of novel applications that could potentially help highlighting areas particularly vulnerable to disease.

Integrating chronological uncertainties for annually laminated lake sediments using layer counting, independent chronologies and Bayesian age modelling (Lake Ohau, South Island, New Zealand)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vandergoes, Marcus J.; Howarth, Jamie D.; Dunbar, Gavin B.; Turnbull, Jocelyn C.; Roop, Heidi A.; Levy, Richard H.; Li, Xun; Prior, Christine; Norris, Margaret; Keller, Liz D.; Baisden, W. Troy; Ditchburn, Robert; Fitzsimons, Sean J.; Bronk Ramsey, Christopher

2018-05-01

Annually resolved (varved) lake sequences are important palaeoenvironmental archives as they offer a direct incremental dating technique for high-frequency reconstruction of environmental and climate change. Despite the importance of these records, establishing a robust chronology and quantifying its precision and accuracy (estimations of error) remains an essential but challenging component of their development. We outline an approach for building reliable independent chronologies, testing the accuracy of layer counts and integrating all chronological uncertainties to provide quantitative age and error estimates for varved lake sequences. The approach incorporates (1) layer counts and estimates of counting precision; (2) radiometric and biostratigrapic dating techniques to derive independent chronology; and (3) the application of Bayesian age modelling to produce an integrated age model. This approach is applied to a case study of an annually resolved sediment record from Lake Ohau, New Zealand. The most robust age model provides an average error of 72 years across the whole depth range. This represents a fractional uncertainty of ∼5%, higher than the <3% quoted for most published varve records. However, the age model and reported uncertainty represent the best fit between layer counts and independent chronology and the uncertainties account for both layer counting precision and the chronological accuracy of the layer counts. This integrated approach provides a more representative estimate of age uncertainty and therefore represents a statistically more robust chronology.

US/UK second level panel discussions on the health and value of: Ageing and lifetime predictions (u)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Castro, Richard G

2011-01-18

Many healthy physics, engineering, and materials exchanges are being accomplished in ageing and lifetime prediction that directly supports US and UK Stockpile Management Programs. Lifetime assessment studies of silicon foams under compression - Joint AWE/LANLlLLNL study of compression set in stress cushions completed. Provides phenomenological prediction out to 50 years. Polymer volatile out-gassing studies - New exchange on the out-gassing of Ethylene Vinyl Acetate (EVA) using isotopic {sup 13}C labeling studies to interrogate mechanistic processes. Infra-red (IR) gas cell analytical capabilities developed by AWE will be used to monitor polymer out-gassing profiles. Pu Strength ageing Experiments and Constitutive Modeling -more » In recently compared modeling strategies for ageing effects on Pu yield strength at high strain rates, a US/UK consensus was reached on the general principle that the ageing effect is additive and not multiplicative. The fundamental mechanisms for age-strengthening in Pu remains unknown. Pu Surface and Interface Reactions - (1) US/UK secondment resulted in developing a metal-metal oxide model for radiation damaged studies consistent with a Modified Embedded Atom Method (MEAM) potential; and (2) Joint US/UK collaboration to study the role of impurities in hydride initiation. Detonator Ageing (wide range of activities) - (1) Long-term ageing study with field trials at Pantex incorporating materials from LANL, LLNL, SNL and AWE; (2) Characterization of PETN growth to detonation process; (3) Detonator performance modeling; and (4) Performance fault tree analysis. Benefits are a unified approach to lifetime prediction that Includes: materials characterization and the development of ageing models through improved understanding of the relationship between materials properties, ageing properties and detonator performance.« less

Growth Outcomes of Preterm Infants Exposed to Different Oxygen Saturation Target Ranges from Birth

PubMed Central

Navarrete, Cristina T.; Wrage, Lisa A.; Carlo, Waldemar A.; Walsh, Michele C.; Rich, Wade; Gantz, Marie G.; Das, Abhik; Schibler, Kurt; Newman, Nancy S.; Piazza, Anthony J.; Poindexter, Brenda B.; Shankaran, Seetha; Sánchez, Pablo J.; Morris, Brenda H.; Frantz, Ivan D.; Van Meurs, Krisa P.; Cotten, C. Michael; Ehrenkranz, Richard A.; Bell, Edward F.; Watterberg, Kristi L.; Higgins, Rosemary D.; Duara, Shahnaz

2017-01-01

Objective To test whether infants randomized to a lower oxygen saturation (SpO2) target range while on supplemental oxygen from birth will have better growth velocity from birth to 36 weeks postmenstrual age (PMA), and less growth failure at 36 weeks PMA and 18–22 months corrected age. Study design We evaluated a subgroup of 810 preterm infants from the Surfactant, Positive Pressure, and Oxygenation Randomized Trial, randomized at birth to lower (85–89%, n=402, GA 26 ± 1wk, BW 839 ± 186 g) or higher (91–95%, n=408, GA 26 ± 1wk, BW 840 ± 191 g) SpO2 target ranges. Anthropometric measures were obtained at birth, postnatal days 7, 14, 21, and 28; then at 32 and 36 weeks PMA, and 18–22 months corrected age. Growth velocities were estimated using the exponential method and analyzed using linear mixed models. Poor growth outcome, defined as weight < 10th percentile at 36 weeks PMA and 18–22 months corrected age, was compared across the two treatment groups using robust Poisson regression. Results Growth outcomes including growth at 36 weeks PMA and 18–22 months corrected age, as well as growth velocity were similar in the lower and higher SpO2 target groups. Conclusion Targeting different oxygen saturation ranges between 85% and 95% from birth did not impact growth velocity or reduce growth failure in preterm infants. PMID:27344218

Impact of age on both BIS values and EEG bispectrum during anaesthesia with sevoflurane in children.

PubMed

Wodey, E; Tirel, O; Bansard, J Y; Terrier, A; Chanavaz, C; Harris, R; Ecoffey, C; Senhadji, L

2005-06-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the potential relationship between age, BIS (Aspect), and the EEG bispectrum during anaesthesia with sevoflurane. BIS and raw EEG were recorded at a steady state of 1 MAC in 100 children, and during a decrease from 2 to 0.5 MAC in a sub-group of 29 children. The bispectrum of the EEG was estimated using MATLAB software. For analysis, the bispectrum was divided into 36 frequencies of coupling (P(i))--the MatBis. A multiple correspondence analysis (MCA) was used to establish an underlying structure of the pattern of each individual's MatBis at 1 MAC. Clustering of children into homogeneous groups was conducted by a hierarchical ascending classification (HAC). The level of statistical significance was set at 0.05. At 1 MAC, the BIS values for all children ranged from 20 to 74 (median 40). Projection of both age and BIS value recorded at 1 MAC onto the structured model of the MCA showed them to be distributed along the same axis, demonstrating that the different values of BIS obtained in younger or older children are mainly dependent on their MatBis. At 1 MAC, six homogeneous groups of children were obtained through the HAC. Groups 5 (30 months; range 23-49) and 6 (18 months; range 6-180) were the younger children and Group 1 (97 months; range 46-162) the older. Groups 5 and 6 had the highest median values of BIS (54; range 50-59) (55; range 26-74) and Group 1 the lowest values (29; range 22-37). The EEG bispectrum, as well as the BIS appeared to be strongly related to the age of children at 1 MAC sevoflurane.

The predictors and consequences of adolescent amphetamine use: findings from the Victoria Adolescent Health Cohort Study.

PubMed

Degenhardt, Louisa; Coffey, Carolyn; Moran, Paul; Carlin, John B; Patton, George C

2007-07-01

Previous work has highlighted the adverse consequences of early-onset cannabis use. However, little is known about the predictors and effects of early-onset amphetamine use. We set out to examine these issues using a representative cohort of young people followed-up over 11 years in Victoria, Australia. A stratified, random sample of 1943 adolescents was recruited from secondary schools across Victoria at age 14-15 years. This cohort was interviewed on eight occasions until the age of 24-25 years (78% follow-up at that age). Cross-sectional associations were assessed using logistic regression with allowance for repeated measures. Both proportional hazards models and logistic regression models were used to assess prospective associations. Approximately 7% of the sample had used amphetamines by the age of 17 years. Amphetamine use by this age was associated with poorer mental health and other drug use. The incidence of amphetamine use during the teenage years was predicted by heavier drug use and by mental health problems. By young adulthood (age 24-25 years), adolescent amphetamine users were more likely to meet criteria for dependence upon a range of drugs, to have greater psychological morbidity and to have some limitations in educational attainment. Most of these associations were not sustained after adjustment for early-onset cannabis use. Young people in Australia who begin amphetamine use by age 17 years are at increased risk for a range of mental health, substance use and psychosocial problems in young adulthood. However, these problems are largely accounted for by their even earlier-onset cannabis use.

Reassessment of spiny dogfish Squalus acanthias age and growth using vertebrae and dorsal-fin spines.

PubMed

Bubley, W J; Kneebone, J; Sulikowski, J A; Tsang, P C W

2012-04-01

Male and female spiny dogfish Squalus acanthias were collected in the western North Atlantic Ocean in the Gulf of Maine between July 2006 and June 2009. Squalus acanthias ranged from 25 to 102 cm stretch total length and were caught during all months of the year except January. Age estimates derived from banding patterns visible in both the vertebrae and second dorsal-fin spines were compared. Vertebral growth increments were visualized using a modified histological staining technique, which was verified as appropriate for obtaining age estimates. Marginal increment analysis of vertebrae verified the increment periodicity, suggesting annual band deposition. Based on increased precision and accuracy of age estimates, as well as more biologically realistic parameters generated in growth models, the current study found that vertebrae provided a more reliable and accurate means of estimating age in S. acanthias than the second dorsal-fin spine. Age estimates obtained from vertebrae ranged from <1 year-old to 17 years for male and 24 years for female S. acanthias. The two-parameter von Bertalanffy growth model fit to vertebrae-derived age estimates produced parameters of L∞ = 94·23 cm and k = 0·11 for males and L∞ = 100·76 cm and k = 0·12 for females. While these growth parameters differed from those previously reported for S. acanthias in the western North Atlantic Ocean, the causes of such differences were beyond the scope of the current study and remain to be determined. © 2011 The Authors. Journal of Fish Biology © 2011 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Petrology and age of alkalic lava from the Ratak Chain of the Marshall Islands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Davis, A.S.; Pringle, M.S.; Pickthorn, L.-B.G.; Clague, D.A.; Schwab, W.C.

1989-01-01

Volcanic rock dredged from the flanks of four volcanic edifices in the Ratak chain of the Marshall Islands consist of alkalic lava that erupted above sea level or in shallow water. Compositions of recovered samples are predominantly differentiated alkalic basalt and hawaiite but include strongly alkalic melilitite. Whole rock 40Ar/39Ar total fusion and incremental heating ages of 87.3 ?? 0.6 Ma and 82.2 ?? 1.6 Ma determined for samples from Erikub Seamount and Ratak Guyot, respectively, are within the range predicted by plate rotation models but show no age progression consistent with a simple hot spot model. Variations in isotopic and some incompatible element ratios suggest interisland heterogeneity. -from Authors

Uncertainty in age-specific harvest estimates and consequences for white-tailed deer management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Collier, B.A.; Krementz, D.G.

2007-01-01

Age structure proportions (proportion of harvested individuals within each age class) are commonly used as support for regulatory restrictions and input for deer population models. Such use requires critical evaluation when harvest regulations force hunters to selectively harvest specific age classes, due to impact on the underlying population age structure. We used a stochastic population simulation model to evaluate the impact of using harvest proportions to evaluate changes in population age structure under a selective harvest management program at two scales. Using harvest proportions to parameterize the age-specific harvest segment of the model for the local scale showed that predictions of post-harvest age structure did not vary dependent upon whether selective harvest criteria were in use or not. At the county scale, yearling frequency in the post-harvest population increased, but model predictions indicated that post-harvest population size of 2.5 years old males would decline below levels found before implementation of the antler restriction, reducing the number of individuals recruited into older age classes. Across the range of age-specific harvest rates modeled, our simulation predicted that underestimation of age-specific harvest rates has considerable influence on predictions of post-harvest population age structure. We found that the consequence of uncertainty in harvest rates corresponds to uncertainty in predictions of residual population structure, and this correspondence is proportional to scale. Our simulations also indicate that regardless of use of harvest proportions or harvest rates, at either the local or county scale the modeled SHC had a high probability (>0.60 and >0.75, respectively) of eliminating recruitment into >2.5 years old age classes. Although frequently used to increase population age structure, our modeling indicated that selective harvest criteria can decrease or eliminate the number of white-tailed deer recruited into older age classes. Thus, we suggest that using harvest proportions for management planning and evaluation should be viewed with caution. In addition, we recommend that managers focus more attention on estimation of age-specific harvest rates, and modeling approaches which combine harvest rates with information from harvested individuals to further increase their ability to effectively manage deer populations under selective harvest programs. ?? 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Lamb survival analysis from birth to weaning in Iranian Kermani sheep.

PubMed

Barazandeh, Arsalan; Moghbeli, Sadrollah Molaei; Vatankhah, Mahmood; Hossein-Zadeh, Navid Ghavi

2012-04-01

Survival records from 1,763 Kermani lambs born between 1996 and 2004 from 294 ewes and 81 rams were used to determine genetic and non-genetic factors affecting lamb survival. Traits included were lamb survival across five periods from birth to 7, 14, 56, 70, and 90 days of age. Traits were analyzed under Weibull proportional hazard sire models. Several binary analyses were also conducted using animal models. Statistical models included the fixed class effects of sex of lamb, month and year of birth, a covariate effect of birth weight, and random genetic effects of both sire (in survival analyses) and animal (in binary analyses). The average survival to 90 days of age was 94.8%. Hazard rates ranged from 1.00 (birth to 90 days of age) to 1.73 (birth to 7 days of age) between the two sexes indicating that male lambs were at higher risk of mortality than females (P < 0.01). This study also revealed a curvilinear relationship between lamb survival and lamb birth weight, suggesting that viability and birth weight could be considered simultaneously in the selection programs to obtain optimal birth weight in Kermani lambs. Estimates of heritabilities from survival analyses were medium and ranged from 0.23 to 0.29. In addition, heritability estimates obtained from binary analyses were low and varied from 0.04 to 0.09. The results of this study suggest that progress in survival traits could be possible through managerial strategies and genetic selection.

Hf isotope compositions In detrital zircons as a new tool for provenance studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jacobsen, Y. J.; Münker, C.; Mezger, K.

2003-04-01

Identifying the provenance of continental sediments is a major issue in palaeo-tectonic studies, providing important information for paleogeographic reconstructions. Isotope studies, e.g. those of whole rock Sm-Nd or detrital zircon U-Pb dating, have widely been used for this purpose. Here we assess the potential of combined Lu-Hf data and U-Pb ages determined on the same single detrital zircons as a new tool for provenance studies. Due to the low Lu/Hf ratios in zircons the Hf isotope composition of a zircon changes insignificantly after its crystallization. Thus each particular grain preserves information on the Hf-siotpe composition of its source and the age of this source. Provided that both the U-Pb and Lu-Hf isotope systems have not been disturbed, this information can be used to constrain the sources of each individual zircon. In order to demonstrate the capability of Hf isotope studies on detrital zircons for provenance studies, we obtained combined U-Pb ages and Lu-Hf isotope data for zircons from the Cambrian Junction Formation in New Zealand. The Junction Formation was deposited on the (present) SE margin of Gondwana near the Australian continent and consists of turbidites, siltstones and conglomerates [1]. Typical continent derived Paleozoic sediments in SE Gondwana generally show characteristic age maxima at 500-600 Ma, 1000-1200 Ma (Grenvillian) and additional older peaks (early Proterozoic to Archean) [2]. We focused on two groups of detrital zircons with Grenvillian and Proterozoic to Late Archean ages. The initial ɛHf values for these zircons range from 0.7 to -15.5 for the Grenvillian and from -5.2 to -14.1 for the Proterozoic/Archean zircons. Corresponding two stage Hf model ages range from ca. 1500 to 2500 Ma for the Grenvillian and from ca. 3200 to 3600 Ma for the Proterozoic/Archean zircons. Furthermore it can be shown that the Grenvillian zircons must have been derived from recycled Grenvillian provinces. Comparison of these Hf model ages with Nd crustal residence ages from the possible sources in Australia, Antarctica and Laurentia reveals the possible sources of the zircons. Based on the paleogeographic setting in Cambrian time the Grenville-age zircons were most likely derived from Drauning Maud Land (Antarctica), thus confirming earlier models by [1] and [3]. The Archean zircons were most likely derived from W-Australia (Yilgarn or Pilbara Kraton) or E-Antarctica (Miller Range). [1] Wombacher and Münker 2000: J. Geol. 108, [2] Ireland et al. 1998: Geology 26, [3] Flöttmann et al. 1998: J. Geol. Soc. 155.

Population Pharmacokinetics of Metronidazole Evaluated Using Scavenged Samples from Preterm Infants

PubMed Central

Ouellet, Daniele; Smith, P. Brian; James, Laura P.; Ross, Ashley; Sullivan, Janice E.; Walsh, Michele C.; Zadell, Arlene; Newman, Nancy; White, Nicole R.; Kashuba, Angela D. M.; Benjamin, Daniel K.

2012-01-01

Pharmacokinetic (PK) studies in preterm infants are rarely conducted due to the research challenges posed by this population. To overcome these challenges, minimal-risk methods such as scavenged sampling can be used to evaluate the PK of commonly used drugs in this population. We evaluated the population PK of metronidazole using targeted sparse sampling and scavenged samples from infants that were ≤32 weeks of gestational age at birth and <120 postnatal days. A 5-center study was performed. A population PK model using nonlinear mixed-effect modeling (NONMEM) was developed. Covariate effects were evaluated based on estimated precision and clinical significance. Using the individual Bayesian PK estimates from the final population PK model and the dosing regimen used for each subject, the proportion of subjects achieving the therapeutic target of trough concentrations >8 mg/liter was calculated. Monte Carlo simulations were performed to evaluate the adequacy of different dosing recommendations per gestational age group. Thirty-two preterm infants were enrolled: the median (range) gestational age at birth was 27 (22 to 32) weeks, postnatal age was 41 (0 to 97) days, postmenstrual age (PMA) was 32 (24 to 43) weeks, and weight was 1,495 (678 to 3,850) g. The final PK data set contained 116 samples; 104/116 (90%) were scavenged from discarded clinical specimens. Metronidazole population PK was best described by a 1-compartment model. The population mean clearance (CL; liter/h) was determined as 0.0397 × (weight/1.5) × (PMA/32)2.49 using a volume of distribution (V) (liter) of 1.07 × (weight/1.5). The relative standard errors around parameter estimates ranged between 11% and 30%. On average, metronidazole concentrations in scavenged samples were 30% lower than those measured in scheduled blood draws. The majority of infants (>70%) met predefined pharmacodynamic efficacy targets. A new, simplified, postmenstrual-age-based dosing regimen is recommended for this population. Minimal-risk methods such as scavenged PK sampling provided meaningful information related to development of metronidazole PK models and dosing recommendations. PMID:22252819

Automatic age and gender classification using supervised appearance model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bukar, Ali Maina; Ugail, Hassan; Connah, David

2016-11-01

Age and gender classification are two important problems that recently gained popularity in the research community, due to their wide range of applications. Research has shown that both age and gender information are encoded in the face shape and texture, hence the active appearance model (AAM), a statistical model that captures shape and texture variations, has been one of the most widely used feature extraction techniques for the aforementioned problems. However, AAM suffers from some drawbacks, especially when used for classification. This is primarily because principal component analysis (PCA), which is at the core of the model, works in an unsupervised manner, i.e., PCA dimensionality reduction does not take into account how the predictor variables relate to the response (class labels). Rather, it explores only the underlying structure of the predictor variables, thus, it is no surprise if PCA discards valuable parts of the data that represent discriminatory features. Toward this end, we propose a supervised appearance model (sAM) that improves on AAM by replacing PCA with partial least-squares regression. This feature extraction technique is then used for the problems of age and gender classification. Our experiments show that sAM has better predictive power than the conventional AAM.

Childhood growth and development associated with need for full-time special education at school age.

PubMed

Mannerkoski, Minna; Aberg, Laura; Hoikkala, Marianne; Sarna, Seppo; Kaski, Markus; Autti, Taina; Heiskala, Hannu

2009-01-01

To explore how growth measurements and attainment of developmental milestones in early childhood reflect the need for full-time special education (SE). After stratification in this population-based study, 900 pupils in full-time SE groups (age-range 7-16 years, mean 12 years 8 months) at three levels and 301 pupils in mainstream education (age-range 7-16, mean 12 years 9 months) provided data on height and weight from birth to age 7 years and head circumference to age 1 year. Developmental screening was evaluated from age 1 month to 48 months. Statistical methods included a general linear model (growth measurements), binary logistic regression analysis (odds ratios for growth), and multinomial logistic regression analysis (odds ratios for developmental milestones). At 1 year, a 1 standard deviation score (SDS) decrease in height raised the probability of SE placement by 40%, and a 1 SDS decrease in head size by 28%. In developmental screening, during the first months of life the gross motor milestones, especially head support, differentiated the children at levels 0-3. Thereafter, the fine motor milestones and those related to speech and social skills became more important. Children whose growth is mildly impaired, though in the normal range, and who fail to attain certain developmental milestones have an increased probability for SE and thus a need for special attention when toddlers age. Similar to the growth curves, these children seem to have consistent developmental curves (patterns).

Redefinition of the crater-density and absolute-age boundaries for the chronostratigraphic system of Mars

USGS Publications Warehouse

Werner, S.C.; Tanaka, K.L.

2011-01-01

For the boundaries of each chronostratigraphic epoch on Mars, we present systematically derived crater-size frequencies based on crater counts of geologic referent surfaces and three proposed " standard" crater size-frequency production distributions as defined by (a) a simple -2 power law, (b) Neukum and Ivanov, (c) Hartmann. In turn, these crater count values are converted to model-absolute ages based on the inferred cratering rate histories. We present a new boundary definition for the Late Hesperian-Early Amazonian transition. Our fitting of crater size-frequency distributions to the chronostratigraphic record of Mars permits the assignment of cumulative counts of craters down to 100. m, 1. km, 2. km, 5. km, and 16. km diameters to martian epochs. Due to differences in the " standard" crater size-frequency production distributions, a generalized crater-density-based definition to the chronostratigraphic system cannot be provided. For the diameter range used for the boundary definitions, the resulting model absolute age fits vary within 1.5% for a given set of production function and chronology model ages. Crater distributions translated to absolute ages utilizing different curve descriptions can result in absolute age differences exceeding 10%. ?? 2011 Elsevier Inc.

Sample entropy and regularity dimension in complexity analysis of cortical surface structure in early Alzheimer's disease and aging.

PubMed

Chen, Ying; Pham, Tuan D

2013-05-15

We apply for the first time the sample entropy (SampEn) and regularity dimension model for measuring signal complexity to quantify the structural complexity of the brain on MRI. The concept of the regularity dimension is based on the theory of chaos for studying nonlinear dynamical systems, where power laws and entropy measure are adopted to develop the regularity dimension for modeling a mathematical relationship between the frequencies with which information about signal regularity changes in various scales. The sample entropy and regularity dimension of MRI-based brain structural complexity are computed for early Alzheimer's disease (AD) elder adults and age and gender-matched non-demented controls, as well as for a wide range of ages from young people to elder adults. A significantly higher global cortical structure complexity is detected in AD individuals (p<0.001). The increase of SampEn and the regularity dimension are also found to be accompanied with aging which might indicate an age-related exacerbation of cortical structural irregularity. The provided model can be potentially used as an imaging bio-marker for early prediction of AD and age-related cognitive decline. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Reproductive maturation and senescence in the female brown bear

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schwartz, Charles C.; Keating, Kim A.; Reynolds III, Harry V.; Barnes, Victor G.; Sellers, Richard A.; Swenson, J.E.; Miller, Sterling D.; McLellan, B.N.; Keay, Jeffrey A.; McCann, Robert; Gibeau, Michael; Wakkinen, Wayne F.; Mace, Richard D.; Kasworm, Wayne; Smith, Rodger; Herrero, Steven

2003-01-01

Changes in age-specific reproductive rates can have important implications for managing populations, but the number of female brown (grizzly) bears (Ursus arctos) observed in any one study is usually inadequate to quantify such patterns, especially for older females and in hunted areas. We examined patterns of reproductive maturation and senescence in female brown bears by combining data from 20 study areas from Sweden, Alaska, Canada, and the continental United States. We assessed reproductive performance based on 4,726 radiocollared years for free-ranging female brown bears (age 3); 482 of these were for bears 20 years of age. We modeled age-specific probability of litter production using extreme value distributions to describe probabilities for young- and old-age classes, and a power distribution function to describe probabilities for prime-aged animals. We then fit 4 models to pooled observations from our 20 study areas. We used Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC) to select the best model. Inflection points suggest that major shifts in litter production occur at 4–5 and 28–29 years of age. The estimated model asymptote (0.332, 95% CI ¼ 0.319–0.344) was consistent with the expected reproductive cycle of a cub litter every 3 years (0.333). We discuss assumptions and biases in data collection relative to the shape of the model curve. Our results conform to senescence theory and suggest that female age structure in contemporary brown bear populations is considerably younger than would be expected in the absence of modern man. This implies that selective pressures today differ from those that influenced brown bear evolution.

Profile and determinants of successful aging in the Ibadan Study of Ageing.

PubMed

Gureje, Oye; Oladeji, Bibilola D; Abiona, Taiwo; Chatterji, Somnath

2014-05-01

To determine the profile and determinants of successful aging in a developing country characterized by low life expectancy and where successful agers may represent a unique group. Community-based cohort study. Eight contiguous states in the Yoruba-speaking region of Nigeria. A multistage clustered sampling of households was used to select a representative sample of individuals (N = 2,149) aged 65 and older at baseline. Nine hundred thirty were successfully followed for an average of 64 months between August 2003 and December 2009. Lifestyle and behavioral factors were assessed at baseline. Successful aging, defined using each of three models (absence of chronic health conditions, functional independence, and satisfaction with life), was assessed at follow-up. Between 16% and 75% of respondents could be classified as successful agers using one of the three models while 7.5% could be so classified using a combination of all the models. Correlations between the three models were small, ranging from 0.08 to 0.15. Different features predicted their outcomes, suggesting that they represent relatively independent trajectories of aging. Whichever model was used, more men than women tended to be classified as aging successfully. Men who aged successfully, using a combination of all the three models, were more likely never to have smoked (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 4.7, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.55-14.46) and to report, at baseline, having contacts with friends (aOR = 4.2, 95% CI = 1.0-18.76) or participating in community activities (aOR = 16.0, 95% CI = 1.23-204.40). In women, there was a nonlinear trend for younger age at baseline to predict this outcome. Modifiable social and lifestyle factors predicted successful aging in this population, suggesting that health promotion targeting behavior change may lead to tangible benefits for health and well-being in old age. © 2014, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2014, The American Geriatrics Society.

Genome-Environment Interactions That Modulate Aging: Powerful Targets for Drug Discovery

PubMed Central

Wuttke, Daniel; Wood, Shona H.; Plank, Michael; Vora, Chintan

2012-01-01

Aging is the major biomedical challenge of this century. The percentage of elderly people, and consequently the incidence of age-related diseases such as heart disease, cancer, and neurodegenerative diseases, is projected to increase considerably in the coming decades. Findings from model organisms have revealed that aging is a surprisingly plastic process that can be manipulated by both genetic and environmental factors. Here we review a broad range of findings in model organisms, from environmental to genetic manipulations of aging, with a focus on those with underlying gene-environment interactions with potential for drug discovery and development. One well-studied dietary manipulation of aging is caloric restriction, which consists of restricting the food intake of organisms without triggering malnutrition and has been shown to retard aging in model organisms. Caloric restriction is already being used as a paradigm for developing compounds that mimic its life-extension effects and might therefore have therapeutic value. The potential for further advances in this field is immense; hundreds of genes in several pathways have recently emerged as regulators of aging and caloric restriction in model organisms. Some of these genes, such as IGF1R and FOXO3, have also been associated with human longevity in genetic association studies. The parallel emergence of network approaches offers prospects to develop multitarget drugs and combinatorial therapies. Understanding how the environment modulates aging-related genes may lead to human applications and disease therapies through diet, lifestyle, or pharmacological interventions. Unlocking the capacity to manipulate human aging would result in unprecedented health benefits. PMID:22090473

Hippocampal and Cognitive Aging across the Lifespan: A Bioenergetic Shift Precedes and Increased Cholesterol Trafficking Parallels Memory Impairment

PubMed Central

Kadish, I; Thibault, O; Blalock, EM; Chen, K-C; Gant, JC; Porter, NM; Landfield, PW

2009-01-01

Multiple hippocampal processes and cognitive functions change with aging or Alzheimer’s disease, but the potential triggers of these aging cascades are not well understood. Here, we quantified hippocampal expression profiles and behavior across the adult lifespan, to identify early aging changes and changes that coincide with subsequent onset of cognitive impairment. Well-powered microarray analyses (N=49 arrays), immunohistochemistry and Morris spatial maze learning were used to study male F344 rats at 5 age points. Genes that changed with aging (by ANOVA) were assigned to one-of-four onset-age ranges based upon template pattern matching; functional pathways represented by these genes were identified statistically (Genome Ontology). In the earliest onset-age range (3–6 months-old), upregulation began for genes in lipid/protein catabolic and lysosomal pathways, indicating a shift in metabolic substrates, whereas downregulation began for lipid synthesis, GTP/ATP-dependent signaling and neural development genes. By 6–9 months-of-age, upregulation of immune/inflammatory cytokines was pronounced. Cognitive impairment first appeared in the Midlife range (9–12 months), and coincided and correlated primarily with midlife upregulation of genes associated with cholesterol trafficking (apolipoprotein E), myelinogenic and proteolytic/MHC antigen-presenting pathways. Immunolabeling revealed that cholesterol trafficking proteins were substantially increased in astrocytes, and that myelination increased with aging. Together, our data suggest a novel sequential model in which an early-adult metabolic shift, favoring lipid/ketone body oxidation, triggers inflammatory degradation of myelin and resultant excess cholesterol that, by midlife, activates cholesterol transport from astrocytes to remyelinating oligodendrocytes. These processes may damage structure and compete with neuronal pathways for bioenergetic resources, thereby impairing cognitive function. PMID:19211887

Interpretation of thermochronological cooling ages using thermal modelling: an example from shallow magma intrusions from the Kerguelen archipelago

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahadi, Floriane; Delpech, Guillaume; Gautheron, Cécile; Nomade, Sébastien; Zeyen, Hermann; Guillaume, Damien

2017-04-01

Low temperature thermochronology on plutonic rocks is traditionally used to calculate erosion rates over large time scale. However, this method requires a good knowledge of the local or regional geology and particularly the thermal structure and evolution of the crust. The Kerguelen Islands (48-50°S, 68/5-70.5°E, Indian Ocean) are the emerged part of a vast oceanic plateau and are mostly made up of Oligocene basaltic traps that are cross cut by a dense network of large and deep valleys. Numerous plutonic complexes of various age (20-4.5 Ma) locally intrude theses traps and cover about 15% of the main island's surface. The Rallier du Baty peninsula is the largest plutonic complex, it is mainly constituted of syenites and is divided into two adjacent circular plutonic complexes whose centres are distant of 15 km. The southern part has a laccolith structure with satellites plutons and was emplaced at shallow depth (about 1 to 3 km) between 13.7 ± 0.3 and 8.0 ± 0.2 Ma. The northern part was emplaced later between 7.8 ± 0.25 and 4.5 ± 0.1 Ma. The Kerguelen Islands are of particular interest to understand the impact of Cenozoïc climatic variations on the long-term geomorphological evolution of emerged reliefs at mid-latitudes. To understand the erosion of the area, we conducted the first study on the Kerguelen Islands using the biotite 40Ar/39Ar (BAr), apatite and zircon (U-Th)/He thermochronometers (AHe and ZHe). In the southern part, the BAr ages for the various intrusions of the complex range from 9.44 ± 0.13 Ma to 13.84 ± 0.07 Ma. These ages are identical to high-temperature crystallisation ages (U-Pb on zircon) indicating an extremely rapid cooling between ˜700 and ˜300°C. The mean ZHe ages range between 7.1 ± 2.3 and 8.8 ± 1.4 and the mean AHe ages range between 4.4 ± 0.3 Ma and 7.4 ± 0.7 Ma. The AHe ages of the southern complex are similar to the crystallization ages of the northern part of the complex. The mean AHe ages in the northern part are much younger and range from 1.4 ± 0.7 Ma to 0.8 ± 0.1 Ma. Combined with the thermochronological approach, the thermal structure of the crust beneath the Kerguelen Plateau was established by inverse modelling of gravity, geoid and topography data. The results suggest a mean current thermal gradient of ˜40°/km for the Kerguelen Plateau. Moreover, thermal modelling allows reconstructing heat diffusion in 1D after successive sill intrusions (vertically and horizontally) in order to confirm AHe data can be interpreted as exhumation ages in both complexes. In this case, the mean thermal gradient can be considered to convert the cooling rates in erosion rates.

Influence of paternal age on perinatal outcomes.

PubMed

Hurley, Emily G; DeFranco, Emily A

2017-11-01

There is an increasing trend to delay childbearing to advanced parental age. Increased risks of advanced maternal age and assisted reproductive technologies are widely accepted. There are limited data regarding advanced paternal age. To adequately counsel patients on risk, more research regarding advanced paternal age is necessary. We sought to determine the influence of paternal age on perinatal outcomes, and to assess whether this influence differs between pregnancies achieved spontaneously and those achieved with assisted reproductive technology. A population-based retrospective cohort study of all live births in Ohio from 2006 through 2012 was completed. Data were evaluated to determine if advanced paternal age is associated with an increased risk of adverse outcomes in pregnancies. The analysis was stratified by status of utilization of assisted reproductive technology. Generalized linear regression models assessed the association of paternal age on pregnancy complications in assisted reproductive technology and spontaneously conceived pregnancies, after adjusting for maternal age, race, multifetal gestation, and Medicaid status, using Stata software (Stata, Release 12; StataCorp, College Station, TX). Paternal age was documented in 82.2% of 1,034,552 live births in Ohio during the 7-year study period. Paternal age ranged from 12-87 years, with a median of 30 (interquartile range, 26-35) years. Maternal age ranged from 11-62 years, with a median of 27 (interquartile range, 22-31) years. The use of assisted reproductive technology in live births increased as paternal age increased: 0.1% <30 years vs 2.5% >60 years, P < .001. After accounting for maternal age and other confounding risk factors, increased paternal age was not associated with a significant increase in the rate of preeclampsia, preterm birth, fetal growth restriction, congenital anomaly, genetic disorder, or neonatal intensive care unit admission. The influence of paternal age on pregnancy outcomes was similar in pregnancies achieved with and without assisted reproductive technology. Older paternal age does not appear to pose an independent risk of adverse perinatal outcomes, in pregnancies achieved either with or without assisted reproductive technology. However, small effect sizes such as very small risk increases or decreases may not be detectable despite the large sample size in this study of >830,000 births. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Dental age estimation in Japanese individuals combining permanent teeth and third molars.

PubMed

Ramanan, Namratha; Thevissen, Patrick; Fleuws, Steffen; Willems, G

2012-12-01

The study aim was, firstly, to verify the Willems et al. model on a Japanese reference sample. Secondly to develop a Japanese reference model based on the Willems et al. method and to verify it. Thirdly to analyze the age prediction performance adding tooth development information of third molars to permanent teeth. Retrospectively 1877 panoramic radiographs were selected in the age range between 1 and 23 years (1248 children, 629 sub-adults). Dental development was registered applying Demirjian 's stages of the mandibular left permanent teeth in children and Köhler stages on the third molars. The children's data were, firstly, used to validate the Willems et al. model (developed a Belgian reference sample), secondly, split ino a training and a test sample. On the training sample a Japanese reference model was developed based on the Willems method. The developed model and the Willems et al; model were verified on the test sample. Regression analysis was used to detect the age prediction performance adding third molar scores to permanent tooth scores. The validated Willems et al. model provided a mean absolute error of 0.85 and 0.75 years in females and males, respectively. The mean absolute error in the verified Willems et al. and the developed Japanese reference model was 0.85, 0.77 and 0.79, 0.75 years in females and males, respectively. On average a negligible change in root mean square error values was detected adding third molar scores to permanent teeth scores. The Belgian sample could be used as a reference model to estimate the age of the Japanese individuals. Combining information from the third molars and permanent teeth was not providing clinically significant improvement of age predictions based on permanent teeth information alone.

Estimating the age-specific duration of herpes zoster vaccine protection: a matter of model choice?

PubMed

Bilcke, Joke; Ogunjimi, Benson; Hulstaert, Frank; Van Damme, Pierre; Hens, Niel; Beutels, Philippe

2012-04-05

The estimation of herpes zoster (HZ) vaccine efficacy by time since vaccination and age at vaccination is crucial to assess the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of HZ vaccination. Published estimates for the duration of protection from the vaccine diverge substantially, although based on data from the same trial for a follow-up period of 5 years. Different models were used to obtain these estimates, but it is unclear which of these models is most appropriate (if any). Only one study estimated vaccine efficacy by age at vaccination and time since vaccination combined. Recently, data became available from the same trial for a follow-up period of 7 years. We aim to elaborate on estimating HZ vaccine efficacy (1) by estimating it as a function of time since vaccination and age at vaccination, (2) by comparing the fits of a range of models, and (3) by fitting these models on data for a follow-up period of 5 and 7 years. Although the models' fit to data are very comparable, they differ substantially in how they estimate vaccine efficacy to change as a function of time since vaccination and age at vaccination. An accurate estimation of HZ vaccine efficacy by time since vaccination and age at vaccination is hampered by the lack of insight in the biological processes underlying HZ vaccine protection, and by the fact that such data are currently not available in sufficient detail. Uncertainty about the choice of model to estimate this important parameter should be acknowledged in cost-effectiveness analyses. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluating gyrochronology on the zero-age-main-sequence: rotation periods in the southern open cluster Blanco 1 from the Kelt-South survey

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cargile, P. A.; Pepper, J.; Siverd, R.

2014-02-10

We report periods for 33 members of Blanco 1 as measured from Kilodegree Extremely Little Telescope-South light curves, the first reported rotation periods for this benchmark zero-age-main-sequence open cluster. The distribution of these stars spans from late-A or early-F dwarfs to mid-K with periods ranging from less than a day to ∼8 days. The rotation period distribution has a morphology similar to the coeval Pleiades cluster, suggesting the universal nature of stellar rotation distributions. Employing two different gyrochronology methods, we find an age of 146{sub −14}{sup +13} Myr for the cluster. Using the same techniques, we infer an age ofmore » 134{sub −10}{sup +9} Myr for the Pleiades measured from existing literature rotation periods. These rotation-derived ages agree with independently determined cluster ages based on the lithium depletion boundary technique. Additionally, we evaluate different gyrochronology models and quantify levels of agreement between the models and the Blanco 1/Pleiades rotation period distributions, including incorporating the rotation distributions of clusters at ages up to 1.1 Gyr. We find the Skumanich-like spin-down rate sufficiently describes the rotation evolution of stars hotter than the Sun; however, we find cooler stars rotating faster than predicted by a Skumanich law, suggesting a mass dependence in the efficiency of stellar angular momentum loss rate. Finally, we compare the Blanco 1 and Pleiades rotation period distributions to available nonlinear angular momentum evolution models. We find they require a significant mass dependence on the initial rotation rate of solar-type stars to reproduce the observed range of rotation periods at a given stellar mass and are furthermore unable to predict the observed over-density of stars along the upper envelope of the clusters' rotation distributions.« less

Anabolic hormone profiles in elite military men: Robust associations with age, stress, and fatigue.

PubMed

Taylor, Marcus K; Padilla, Genieleah A; Hernández, Lisa M

2017-08-01

We recently established stable daily profiles of the anabolic hormones dehydroepiandrosterone (DHEA) and testosterone in 57 elite military men. In this follow-on study, we explored associations of salivary anabolic hormone profiles with demographic (i.e., age, body mass index [BMI]) and biobehavioral health indices (i.e., blood pressure, sleep, perceived stress, fatigue) via correlational models. Next, nuanced patterns were constructed using quartile splits followed by one-way analysis of variance and post hoc subgroup comparisons. Both DHEA (r range: -0.33 to -0.49) and testosterone (r range: -0.19 to -0.41) were inversely associated with age. Quartile comparisons revealed that age-related declines in DHEA were linear, curvilinear, or sigmoidal, depending on the summary parameter of interest. Anabolic hormone profiles did not associate with BMI, blood pressure, or sleep efficiency. Robust linear associations were observed between testosterone and perceived stress (r range: -0.29 to -0.36); concentration-dependent patterns were less discernible. Lower DHEA (r range: -0.22 to -0.30) and testosterone (r range: -0.22 to -0.36) concentrations associated with higher fatigue. Subsequent quartile comparisons suggested a concentration-dependent threshold with respect to evening testosterone. Specifically, those individuals within the lowest quartile (≤68.4pg/mL) endorsed the highest fatigue of the four groups (p=0.01), while the remaining three groups did not differ from each other. This study not only showed that anabolic hormone profiles have distinctive age trajectories, but are also valuable predictors of stress and fatigue in elite military men. This highlights the importance of routine monitoring of anabolic hormone profiles to sustain and optimize health and readiness in chronically stressed populations. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Geochemical Characterization of Shallow and Deep Aquifer Mixing in the East Newport Mesa Area, Orange County, CA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neel, B.; Hagedorn, B.; Xu, X.; Walker, J. C.

2016-12-01

Groundwater flow in the East Newport Mesa has not been extensively studied due to the lack of sufficiently deep production or monitoring wells in the area. In this study, a conceptual hydrogeologic model of the area is developed to characterize lateral and vertical flow patterns between the shallow-most semi-perched, semi-confined aquifer and the underlying regional, potable, confined aquifer. Groundwaters from 12 newly constructed monitoring wells throughout the region, screened at depths ranging from 6.5 to 110 meters below ground surface were sampled and analyzed once for 222Rn, 14C, 13C, 18O, and 2H, and one year quarterly for major ion composition. Additionally, water levels in each well were monitored weekly and adjacent surface waters were analyzed once for 222Rn activity. Geochemical analysis and groundwater level trends were used to test against a model developed based on correlation of downhole logs and known regional geologic structure from basin-wide reports. Major ion analysis revealed endmember groundwaters of NaHCO3, CaHCO3, and NaCl character, and others that fall along endmember mixing lines, while time-series data show that groundwaters in the shallow eastern-most portion of the mesa varied up to 20% in Ca:Na ratio throughout the year. 13C values range from -26.3 to -12.4‰, while 14C age dates range from 485 to 10,280 years before present, and in some cases show an age-inversion, where waters of younger apparent age lie below those of older. Groundwaters sampled throughout the mesa showed 222Rn values ranging from 8 to 1,501 pCi/L. A primary feature of the preliminary conceptual model is the presence of an aquifer mergence zone, i.e., an angular or erosional unconformity in which the intervening aquitard between the two zones is eroded away, thus hydraulically joining the two aquifers. Mixing patterns inferred by major ion data and asymptotic decay of 14C support the existence of a mergence zone and also highlight a potential seasonal intrusion of seawater from the Upper Newport Back Bay into the mesa. This conceptual model will potentially serve as the foundation for a numerical flow model, and related contaminant transport model, with implications for managing and protecting drinking water production wells in the Orange County Groundwater Basin.

Video Self-Modeling Applications With Students With Autism Spectrum Disorder in a Small Private School Setting

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tom, Buggey

2005-01-01

Videotaped self-modeling (VSM) was developed as a means to allow participants to view themselves in situations where they are performing at a more advanced level than they typically function. VSM has been used effectively to train positive behaviors and reduce unwanted behaviors across a range of ages and behaviors; however, few studies of VSM…

Using Video Self-Modeling with Preschoolers with Autism Spectrum Disorder: Seeing Can Be Believing

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Buggey, Tom; Hoomes, Grace

2011-01-01

Video self-modeling (VSM) is a method that, with some creative editing, allows children to view positive examples of their behavior or demonstrations of skills slightly beyond their present ability. Although VSM has been successfully used across a range of behaviors and ages with children having a variety of disabilities, its use with preschoolers…

Effects of Video Modeling on the Instructional Efficiency of Simultaneous Prompting among Preschoolers with Autism Spectrum Disorder

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Genc-Tosun, Derya; Kurt, Onur

2017-01-01

The purpose of the present study was to compare the effectiveness and efficiency of simultaneous prompting with and without video modeling in teaching food preparation skills to four participants with autism spectrum disorder, whose ages ranged from 5 to 6 years old. An adapted alternating treatment single-case experimental design was used to…

Kindergartners' Mental Models of the Day and Night Cycle: Implications for Instructional Practices in Early Childhood Classrooms

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Saçkes, Mesut

2015-01-01

This study aims to examine kindergarten children's mental models of the day and night cycle and provide implications for pedagogical practices targeting space science concepts in early childhood classrooms. A total of 46 kindergartners participated in the study, their age ranging from 60 to 75 months, including 22 boys and 24 girls.…

Association of allostatic load with brain structure and cognitive ability in later life

PubMed Central

Booth, Tom; Royle, Natalie A.; Corley, Janie; Gow, Alan J.; Valdés Hernández, Maria del C.; Muñoz Maniega, Susana; Ritchie, Stuart J.; Bastin, Mark E.; Starr, John M.; Wardlaw, Joanna M.; Deary, Ian J.

2015-01-01

Allostatic load (AL) has been proposed as a general framework for understanding the cumulative effects of life stress on individuals. Despite growing interest in AL, limited research has been conducted on aging samples. We consider the association of AL (operationalized by a range of inflammatory, cardiovascular, and metabolic measures) with a range of brain volume measurements and cognitive ability in a large cohort sample of older adults (n = 658, mean age = 72.5 years, standard deviation = 0.7) using structural equation modeling. AL was significantly inversely associated with total brain volume (range of standardized β = −0.16 to −0.20) and white-matter volume (−0.35 to −0.36) and positively with hippocampal volume (0.10–0.15) but not gray-matter volume (0.04). AL was also significantly inversely associated with general cognitive ability (range β = −0.13 to −0.20), processing speed (−0.20 to −0.22), and knowledge (−0.18 to −0.20) but not memory or nonverbal reasoning. The associations of AL with cognitive abilities were not mediated by these brain volume measures. AL did not predict cognitive change from age 11 to approximately age 73. The findings suggest a link between AL and later life brain health and cognitive functioning. PMID:25659881

Correspondence between theoretical models and dual energy x-ray absorptiometry measurements of femoral cross-sectional growth during adolescence

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

van der Meulen, M. C.; Marcus, R.; Bachrach, L. K.; Carter, D. R.

1997-01-01

We have developed an analytical model of long bone cross-sectional ontogeny in which appositional growth of the diaphysis is primarily driven by mechanical stimuli associated with increasing body mass during growth and development. In this study, our goal was to compare theoretical predictions of femoral diaphyseal structure from this model with measurements of femoral bone mineral and geometry by dual energy x-ray absorptiometry. Measurements of mid-diaphyseal femoral geometry and structure were made previously in 101 Caucasian adolescents and young adults 9-26 years of age. The data on measured bone mineral content and calculated section modulus were compared with the results of our analytical model of cross-sectional development of the human femur over the same age range. Both bone mineral content and section modulus showed good correspondence with experimental measurements when the relationships with age and body mass were examined. Strong linear relationships were evident for both parameters when examined as a function of body mass.

Determination of Fundamental Properties of an M31 Globular Cluster from Main-Sequence Photometry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Jun; Wu, Zhenyu; Wang, Song; Fan, Zhou; Zhou, Xu; Wu, Jianghua; Jiang, Zhaoji; Chen, Jiansheng

2010-10-01

M31 globular cluster B379 is the first extragalactic cluster whose age was determined by main-sequence photometry. In the main-sequence photometric method, the age of a cluster is obtained by fitting its color-magnitude diagram (CMD) with stellar evolutionary models. However, different stellar evolutionary models use different parameters of stellar evolution, such as range of stellar masses, different opacities and equations of state, and different recipes, and so on. So, it is interesting to check whether different stellar evolutionary models can give consistent results for the same cluster. Brown et al. constrained the age of B379 by comparing its CMD with isochrones of the 2006 VandenBerg models. Using SSP models of Bruzual & Charlot and its multiphotometry, ZMa et al. independently determined the age of B379, which is in good agreement with the determination of Brown et al. The models of Bruzual & Charlot are calculated based on the Padova evolutionary tracks. It is necessary to check whether the age of B379 as determined based on the Padova evolutionary tracks is in agreement with the determination of Brown et al.. In this article, we redetermine the age of B379 using isochrones of the Padova stellar evolutionary models. In addition, the metal abundance, the distance modulus, and the reddening value for B379 are reported. The results obtained are consistent with the previous determinations, which include the age obtained by Brown et al. This article thus confirms the consistency of the age scale of B379 between the Padova isochrones and the 2006 VandenBerg isochrones; i.e., the comparison between the results of Brown et al. and Ma et al. is meaningful. The results reported in this article of values found for B379 are: metallicity [M/H] = log(Z/Z ⊙) = -0.325, age τ = 11.0 ± 1.5 Gyr, reddening E(B - V) = 0.08, and distance modulus (m - M)0 = 24.44 ± 0.10.

Autophagy - An Emerging Anti-Aging Mechanism

PubMed Central

Gelino, Sara; Hansen, Malene

2013-01-01

Autophagy is a cytoplasmic catabolic process that protects the cell against stressful conditions. Damaged cellular components are funneled by autophagy into the lysosomes, where they are degraded and can be re-used as alternative building blocks for protein synthesis and cellular repair. In contrast, aging is the gradual failure over time of cellular repair mechanisms that leads to the accumulation of molecular and cellular damage and loss of function. The cell’s capacity for autophagic degradation also declines with age, and this in itself may contribute to the aging process. Studies in model organisms ranging from yeast to mice have shown that single-gene mutations can extend lifespan in an evolutionarily conserved fashion, and provide evidence that the aging process can be modulated. Interestingly, autophagy is induced in a seemingly beneficial manner by many of the same perturbations that extend lifespan, including mutations in key signaling pathways such as the insulin/IGF-1 and TOR pathways. Here, we review recent progress, primarily derived from genetic studies with model organisms, in understanding the role of autophagy in aging and age-related diseases. PMID:23750326

Paleoclimate Signals and Age Distributions from 41 Public Water Works in the Netherlands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Broers, H. P.; Weert, J. D.; Sültenfuß, J.; Aeschbach, W.; Vonhof, H.; Casteleijns, J.

2015-12-01

Knowing the age distribution of water abstracted from public water supply wells is of prime importance to ensure customer trust and to underpin predictions of water quality evolution in time. Especially, age distributions enable the assessment of the vulnerability of well fields, both in relation to surface sources of contamination as in relation to subsurface sources, such as possibly related to shale gas extraction. We sampled the raw water of 41 large public supply well fields which represents a mixture of groundwaters and used the a discrete travel time distribution model (DTTDM, Visser et al. 2013, WRR) in order to quantify the age distribution of the mixture. Measurements included major ion chemistry, 3H, 3He, 4He, 18O, 2H, 14C, 13CDIC and 13CCH4 and the full range of noble gases. The heavier noble gases enable the calculation of the Noble Gas Temperature (NGT) which characterizes the temperature of past recharge conditions. The 14C apparent age of each mixture was derived correcting for dead carbon sources. The DTTDM used the 3H and 4He concentrations, the 14C apparent age and the NGT as the four distinctive tracers to estimate the age distributions. Especially 4He and NGT provide extra information on the older part of the age distributions and showed that the 14C apparent ages are often the result of mixing of waters ranging between 2.000 and 35.000 years old, instead of being discrete ages with a limited .variance as sometimes assumed.The results show a large range of age distributions, comprising vulnerable well fields with >60% young water (< 100 yrs) and well-protected well fields with >85% very old groundwater (> 25 kyrs) and all forms of TTD's in between. The age distributions are well in correspondence with the hydrogeological setting of the well fields; all well fields with an age distribution skewed towards older ages are in the Roer Valley Graben structure, where fluvial and marine aquitards provide protection from recent recharge. Especially waters from this graben structure exhibit clear paleoclimate signals, with a clear relations between NGT (ranging from 2,8 -9 °C), 4He (up to 3.3E-6 cc STP/g) and 18O (range from -8.5—5.5‰). Moreover, ¾ ratios of these graben waters suggest an influx of He from mantle origin.

Paleoclimate signals and age distributions from 41 public water works in the Netherlands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Broers, Hans Peter; de Weert, Jasperien; Sueltenfuss, Juergen; Aeschbach-Hertig, Werner; Vonhof, Hubert; Casteleijns, Jeroen

2015-04-01

Knowing the age distribution of water abstracted from public water supply wells is of prime importance to ensure customer trust and to underpin predictions of water quality evolution in time. Especially, age distributions enable the assessment of the vulnerability of well fields, both in relation to surface sources of contamination as in relation to subsurface sources, such as possibly related to shale gas extraction. We sampled the raw water of 41 large public supply well fields which represents a mixture of groundwaters and used the a discrete travel time distribution model (DTTDM, Visser et al. 2013, WRR) in order to quantify the age distribution of the mixture. Measurements included major ion chemistry, 3H, 3He, 4He, 18O, 2H, 14C, 13CDIC and 13CCH4 and the full range of noble gases. The heavier noble gases enable the calculation of the Noble Gas Temperature (NGT) which characterizes the temperature of past recharge conditions. The 14C apparent age of each mixture was derived correcting for dead carbon sources and included carbonate dissolution and methanogenesis as the defining processes. The DTTDM used the 3H and 4He concentrations, the 14C apparent age and the NGT as the four distinctive tracers to estimate the age distributions. The use of 18O was less effective because the processes that led to more enriched values are too uncertain . Especially 4He and NGT provide extra information on the older part of the age distributions and showed that the 14C apparent ages are often the result of mixing of waters ranging between 2.000 and 35.000 years old, instead of being discrete ages with a limited .variance as sometimes assumed. The results show a large range of age distributions, comprising vulnerable well fields with >60% young water (< 100 yrs) and well-protected well fields with >85% very old groundwater (> 25 kyrs) and all forms of TTD's in between. The age distributions are well in correspondence with the hydrogeological setting of the well fields; all well fields with an age distribution skewed towards older ages are in the Roer Valley Graben structure, where fluvial and marine aquitards provide protection from recent recharge. Especially waters from this graben structure exhibit clear paleoclimate signals, with a clear relations between NGT (ranging from 2,8 -9 °C), 4He (up to 3.3E-6 cc STP/g) and 18O (range from -8.5 -- 5.5‰).

Dielectric behavior of AC aged polyethylene in humid environment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Scarpa, P.C.N.; Das-Gupta, D.K.; Bulinski, A.T.

1996-12-31

The present paper reports the results of a study of electrical aging of low density polyethylene (LDPE) aged in humid environment (0.1M NaCl) at an AC stress of 6kV/mm, 1kHz, at room temperature (RT) and at 65 C, and cross-linked polyethylene (XLPE) AC aged in humid environment (water) at an AC stress of 6kV/mm, 50Hz, at RT, for an extended period of time. For this study the dielectric spectroscopy data in the frequency range of 10{sup {minus}5}Hz to 10{sup 6}Hz and their comparative analysis, have been used to provide electrical analog models of the aging.

Cellular Homeostasis and Aging.

PubMed

Hartl, F Ulrich

2016-06-02

Aging and longevity are controlled by a multiplicity of molecular and cellular signaling events that interface with environmental factors to maintain cellular homeostasis. Modulation of these pathways to extend life span, including insulin-like signaling and the response to dietary restriction, identified the cellular machineries and networks of protein homeostasis (proteostasis) and stress resistance pathways as critical players in the aging process. A decline of proteostasis capacity during aging leads to dysfunction of specific cell types and tissues, rendering the organism susceptible to a range of chronic diseases. This volume of the Annual Review of Biochemistry contains a set of two reviews addressing our current understanding of the molecular mechanisms underlying aging in model organisms and humans.

Cougar survival and source-sink structure on Greater Yellowstone's Northern Range

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ruth, T.K.; Haroldson, M.A.; Murphy, K.M.; Buotte, P.C.; Hornocker, M.G.; Quigley, H.B.

2011-01-01

We studied survival and causes of mortality of radiocollared cougars (Puma concolor) on the Greater Yellowstone Northern Range (GYNR) prior to (1987–1994) and after wolf (Canis lupus) reintroduction (1998–2005) and evaluated temporal, spatial, and environmental factors that explain variation in adult, subadult, and kitten survival. Using Program MARK and multimodel inference, we modeled cougar survival based on demographic status, season, and landscape attributes. Our best models for adult and independent subadults indicated that females survived better than males and survival increased with age until cougars reached older ages. Lower elevations and increasing density of roads, particularly in areas open to cougar hunting north of Yellowstone National Park (YNP), increased mortality risks for cougars on the GYNR. Indices of ungulate biomass, cougar and wolf population size, winter severity, rainfall, and individual characteristics such as the presence of dependent young, age class, and use of Park or Wilderness were not important predictors of survival. Kitten survival increased with age, was lower during winter, increased with increasing minimum estimates of elk calf biomass, and increased with increasing density of adult male cougars. Using our best model, we mapped adult cougar survival on the GYNR landscape. Results of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis indicated a good model fit for both female (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.81, 95%CI = 0.70–0.92, n = 35 locations) and male cougars (AUC = 0.84, 95%CI = 0.74–0.94, n = 49 locations) relative to hunter harvest locations in our study area. Using minimum estimates of survival necessary to sustain the study population, we developed a source-sink surface and we identify several measures that resource management agencies can take to enhance cougar population management based on a source-sink strategy.

Comparison of stellar population model predictions using optical and infrared spectroscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baldwin, C.; McDermid, R. M.; Kuntschner, H.; Maraston, C.; Conroy, C.

2018-02-01

We present Gemini/GNIRS cross-dispersed near-infrared spectra of 12 nearby early-type galaxies, with the aim of testing commonly used stellar population synthesis models. We select a subset of galaxies from the ATLAS3D sample which span a wide range of ages (single stellar population equivalent ages of 1-15 Gyr) at approximately solar metallicity. We derive star formation histories using four different stellar population synthesis models, namely those of Bruzual & Charlot, Conroy, Gunn & White, Maraston & Strömbäck and Vazdekis et al. We compare star formation histories derived from near-infrared spectra with those derived from optical spectra using the same models. We find that while all models agree in the optical, the derived star formation histories vary dramatically from model to model in the near-infrared. We find that this variation is largely driven by the choice of stellar spectral library, such that models including high-quality spectral libraries provide the best fits to the data, and are the most self-consistent when comparing optically derived properties with near-infrared ones. We also find the impact of age variation in the near-infrared to be subtle, and largely encoded in the shape of the continuum, meaning that the common approach of removing continuum information with a high-order polynomial greatly reduces our ability to constrain ages in the near-infrared.

Synergistic Effect of High Charge and Energy Particle Radiation and Chronological Age on Biomarkers of Oxidative Stress and Tissue Degeneration: A Ground-Based Study Using the Vertebrate Laboratory Model Organism Oryzias latipes

PubMed Central

Zheng, Xuan; Zhang, Xinyan; Ding, Lingling; Lee, Jeffrey R.; Weinberger, Paul M.; Dynan, William S.

2014-01-01

High charge and energy (HZE) particles are a main hazard of the space radiation environment. Uncertainty regarding their health effects is a limiting factor in the design of human exploration-class space missions, that is, missions beyond low earth orbit. Previous work has shown that HZE exposure increases cancer risk and elicits other aging-like phenomena in animal models. Here, we investigate how a single exposure to HZE particle radiation, early in life, influences the subsequent age-dependent evolution of oxidative stress and appearance of degenerative tissue changes. Embryos of the laboratory model organism, Oryzias latipes (Japanese medaka fish), were exposed to HZE particle radiation at doses overlapping the range of anticipated human exposure. A separate cohort was exposed to reference γ-radiation. Survival was monitored for 750 days, well beyond the median lifespan. The population was also sampled at intervals and liver tissue was subjected to histological and molecular analysis. HZE particle radiation dose and aging contributed synergistically to accumulation of lipid peroxidation products, which are a marker of chronic oxidative stress. This was mirrored by a decline in PPARGC1A mRNA, which encodes a transcriptional co-activator required for expression of oxidative stress defense genes and for mitochondrial maintenance. Consistent with chronic oxidative stress, mitochondria had an elongated and enlarged ultrastructure. Livers also had distinctive, cystic lesions. Depending on the endpoint, effects of γ-rays in the same dose range were either lesser or not detected. Results provide a quantitative and qualitative framework for understanding relative contributions of HZE particle radiation exposure and aging to chronic oxidative stress and tissue degeneration. PMID:25375139

Synergistic Effect of High Charge and Energy Particle Radiation and Chronological Age on Biomarkers of Oxidative Stress and Tissue Degeneration: A Ground-Based Study Using the Vertebrate Laboratory Model Organism Oryzias latipes

DOE PAGES

Zheng, Xuan; Zhang, Xinyan; Ding, Lingling; ...

2014-11-06

High charge and energy (HZE) particles are a main hazard of the space radiation environment. Uncertainty regarding their health effects is a limiting factor in the design of human exploration-class space missions, that is, missions beyond low earth orbit. Previous work has shown that HZE exposure increases cancer risk and elicits other aging-like phenomena in animal models. Here, we investigate how a single exposure to HZE particle radiation, early in life, influences the subsequent age-dependent evolution of oxidative stress and appearance of degenerative tissue changes. Embryos of the laboratory model organism, Oryzias latipes (Japanese medaka fish), were exposed to HZEmore » particle radiation at doses overlapping the range of anticipated human exposure. A separate cohort was exposed to reference γ-radiation. Survival was monitored for 750 days, well beyond the median lifespan. The population was also sampled at intervals and liver tissue was subjected to histological and molecular analysis. HZE particle radiation dose and aging contributed synergistically to accumulation of lipid peroxidation products, which are a marker of chronic oxidative stress. This was mirrored by a decline in PPARGC1A mRNA, which encodes a transcriptional co-activator required for expression of oxidative stress defense genes and for mitochondrial maintenance. Consistent with chronic oxidative stress, mitochondria had an elongated and enlarged ultrastructure. Livers also had distinctive, cystic lesions. Depending on the endpoint, effects of γ-rays in the same dose range were either lesser or not detected. Results provide a quantitative and qualitative framework for understanding relative contributions of HZE particle radiation exposure and aging to chronic oxidative stress and tissue degeneration.« less

Mitochondrial damage and ageing using skin as a model organ.

PubMed

Hudson, Laura; Bowman, Amy; Rashdan, Eyman; Birch-Machin, Mark A

2016-11-01

Ageing describes the progressive functional decline of an organism over time, leading to an increase in susceptibility to age-related diseases and eventually to death, and it is a phenomenon observed across a wide range of organisms. Despite a vast repertoire of ageing studies performed over the past century, the exact causes of ageing remain unknown. For over 50 years it has been speculated that mitochondria play a key role in the ageing process, due mainly to correlative data showing an increase in mitochondrial dysfunction, mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) damage, and reactive oxygen species (ROS) with age. However, the exact role of the mitochondria in the ageing process remains unknown. The skin is often used to study human ageing, due to its easy accessibility, and the observation that the ageing process is able to be accelerated in this organ via environmental insults, such as ultra violet radiation (UVR). This provides a useful tool to investigate the mechanisms regulating ageing and, in particular, the role of the mitochondria. Observations from dermatological and photoageing studies can provide useful insights into chronological ageing of the skin and other organs such as the brain and liver. Moreover, a wide range of diseases are associated with ageing; therefore, understanding the cause of the ageing process as well as regulatory mechanisms involved could provide potentially advantageous therapeutic targets for the prevention or treatment of such diseases. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

An artificial intelligence tool for complex age-depth models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bradley, E.; Anderson, K. A.; de Vesine, L. R.; Lai, V.; Thomas, M.; Nelson, T. H.; Weiss, I.; White, J. W. C.

2017-12-01

CSciBox is an integrated software system for age modeling of paleoenvironmental records. It incorporates an array of data-processing and visualization facilities, ranging from 14C calibrations to sophisticated interpolation tools. Using CSciBox's GUI, a scientist can build custom analysis pipelines by composing these built-in components or adding new ones. Alternatively, she can employ CSciBox's automated reasoning engine, Hobbes, which uses AI techniques to perform an in-depth, autonomous exploration of the space of possible age-depth models and presents the results—both the models and the reasoning that was used in constructing and evaluating them—to the user for her inspection. Hobbes accomplishes this using a rulebase that captures the knowledge of expert geoscientists, which was collected over the course of more than 100 hours of interviews. It works by using these rules to generate arguments for and against different age-depth model choices for a given core. Given a marine-sediment record containing uncalibrated 14C dates, for instance, Hobbes tries CALIB-style calibrations using a choice of IntCal curves, with reservoir age correction values chosen from the 14CHRONO database using the lat/long information provided with the core, and finally composes the resulting age points into a full age model using different interpolation methods. It evaluates each model—e.g., looking for outliers or reversals—and uses that information to guide the next steps of its exploration, and presents the results to the user in human-readable form. The most powerful of CSciBox's built-in interpolation methods is BACON, a Bayesian sedimentation-rate algorithm—a powerful but complex tool that can be difficult to use. Hobbes adjusts BACON's many parameters autonomously to match the age model to the expectations of expert geoscientists, as captured in its rulebase. It then checks the model against the data and iteratively re-calculates until it is a good fit to the data.

Constraints on the age and evolution of the Galaxy from the white dwarf luminosity function

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wood, M. A.

1992-01-01

The white dwarf disk luminosity function is explored using observational results of Liebert et al. (1988, 1989) as a template for comparison, and the cooling curves of Wood (1990, 1991) as the input basis functions for the integration. The star formation rate over the history of the Galaxy is found to be constant to within an order of magnitude, and the disk age lies in the range 6-13.5 Gyr, where roughly 40 percent of the uncertainty is due to the observational uncertainties. Using the best current estimates as inputs to the integration, the disk ages range from 7.5 to 11 Gyr, i.e., they are substantially younger than most estimates for the halo globular clusters but in reasonable agreement with those for the disk globular clusters and open clusters. The ages of these differing populations, taken together, are consistent with the pressure-supported collapse models of early spiral Galactic evolution.

A constitutive model accounting for strain ageing effects on work-hardening. Application to a C-Mn steel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ren, Sicong; Mazière, Matthieu; Forest, Samuel; Morgeneyer, Thilo F.; Rousselier, Gilles

2017-12-01

One of the most successful models for describing the Portevin-Le Chatelier effect in engineering applications is the Kubin-Estrin-McCormick model (KEMC). In the present work, the influence of dynamic strain ageing on dynamic recovery due to dislocation annihilation is introduced in order to improve the KEMC model. This modification accounts for additional strain hardening rate due to limited dislocation annihilation by the diffusion of solute atoms and dislocation pinning at low strain rate and/or high temperature. The parameters associated with this novel formulation are identified based on tensile tests for a C-Mn steel at seven temperatures ranging from 20 °C to 350 °C. The validity of the model and the improvement compared to existing models are tested using 2D and 3D finite element simulations of the Portevin-Le Chatelier effect in tension.

Sex differences in facial emotion perception ability across the lifespan.

PubMed

Olderbak, Sally; Wilhelm, Oliver; Hildebrandt, Andrea; Quoidbach, Jordi

2018-03-22

Perception of emotion in the face is a key component of human social cognition and is considered vital for many domains of life; however, little is known about how this ability differs across the lifespan for men and women. We addressed this question with a large community sample (N = 100,257) of persons ranging from younger than 15 to older than 60 years of age. Participants were viewers of the television show "Tout le Monde Joue", and the task was presented on television, with participants responding via their mobile devices. Applying latent variable modeling, and establishing measurement invariance between males and females and across age, we found that, for both males and females, emotion perception abilities peak between the ages of 15 and 30, with poorer performance by younger adults and declining performance after the age of 30. In addition, we show a consistent advantage by females across the lifespan, which decreases in magnitude with increasing age. This large scale study with a wide range of people and testing environments suggests these effects are largely robust. Implications are discussed.

Crustal subsidence rate off Hawaii determined from sup 234 U/ sup 238 U ages of drowned coral reefs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ludwig, K.R.; Szabo, B.J.; Simmons, K.R.

1991-02-01

A series of submerged coral reefs off northwestern Hawaii was formed during (largely glacial) intervals when the rate of local sea-level rise was less than the maximum upward growth rate of the reefs. Mass-spectrometric {sup 234}U/{sup 238}U ages for samples from six such reefs range from 17 to 475 ka and indicate that this part of the Hawaiian Ridge has been subsiding at a roughly uniform rate of 2.6 mm/yr for the past 475 ka. The {sup 234}U/{sup 238}U ages are in general agreement with model ages of reef drowning (based on estimates of paleo-sea-level stands derived from oxygen-isotope ratiosmore » of deep-sea sediments), but there are disagreements in detail. The high attainable precision ({plus minus}10 ka or better on samples younger than {approximately}800 ka), large applicable age range, relative robustness against open-system behavior, and ease of analysis for this technique hold great promise for future applications of dating of 50-1,000 ka coral.« less

Outcome Trajectories in Extremely Preterm Infants

PubMed Central

Carlo, Waldemar A.; Tyson, Jon E.; Langer, John C.; Walsh, Michele C.; Parikh, Nehal A.; Das, Abhik; Van Meurs, Krisa P.; Shankaran, Seetha; Stoll, Barbara J.; Higgins, Rosemary D.

2012-01-01

OBJECTIVE: Methods are required to predict prognosis with changes in clinical course. Death or neurodevelopmental impairment in extremely premature neonates can be predicted at birth/admission to the ICU by considering gender, antenatal steroids, multiple birth, birth weight, and gestational age. Predictions may be improved by using additional information available later during the clinical course. Our objective was to develop serial predictions of outcome by using prognostic factors available over the course of NICU hospitalization. METHODS: Data on infants with birth weight ≤1.0 kg admitted to 18 large academic tertiary NICUs during 1998–2005 were used to develop multivariable regression models following stepwise variable selection. Models were developed by using all survivors at specific times during hospitalization (in delivery room [n = 8713], 7-day [n = 6996], 28-day [n = 6241], and 36-week postmenstrual age [n = 5118]) to predict death or death/neurodevelopmental impairment at 18 to 22 months. RESULTS: Prediction of death or neurodevelopmental impairment in extremely premature infants is improved by using information available later during the clinical course. The importance of birth weight declines, whereas the importance of respiratory illness severity increases with advancing postnatal age. The c-statistic in validation models ranged from 0.74 to 0.80 with misclassification rates ranging from 0.28 to 0.30. CONCLUSIONS: Dynamic models of the changing probability of individual outcome can improve outcome predictions in preterm infants. Various current and future scenarios can be modeled by input of different clinical possibilities to develop individual “outcome trajectories” and evaluate impact of possible morbidities on outcome. PMID:22689874

Outcomes of Occupational Self-Efficacy in Older Workers

PubMed Central

Paggi, Michelle E.; Jopp, Daniela S.

2016-01-01

Because of the increasing number of older workers, it is important to develop models of work-related constructs for this population. The present article developed a model surrounding occupational self-efficacy, testing its relation to other factors (e.g., intrinsic job motivation), predictors (e.g., self-perceptions of aging), and outcomes (e.g., job satisfaction). Employed adults of ages 50 and older (n= 313) were recruited via organizations and social media sites. Study participants (M= 59.7, SD= 6.1, range = 50–78) volunteered to fill out an Internet survey. Occupational self-efficacy predicted job satisfaction, and intrinsic job motivation fully mediated this relationship. More negative self-perceptions of aging predicted poorer occupational self-efficacy. Occupational self-efficacy also predicted life satisfaction. Expected retirement age and job performance were unrelated to occupational self-efficacy. These findings may inform workplace interventions that seek to maintain or increase older worker job and life satisfaction. PMID:26394821

A game dynamic model for delayer strategies in vaccinating behaviour for pediatric infectious diseases.

PubMed

Bhattacharyya, Samit; Bauch, C T

2010-12-07

Several studies have found that some parents delay the age at which their children receive pediatric vaccines due to perception of higher vaccine risk at the recommended age of vaccination. This has been particularly apparently during the Measles-Mumps-Rubella scare in the United Kingdom. Under a voluntary vaccination policy, vaccine coverage in certain age groups is a potentially complex interplay between vaccinating behaviour, disease dynamics, and age-specific risk factors. Here, we construct an age-structured game dynamic model, where individuals decide whether to vaccinate according to imitation dynamics depending on age-dependent disease prevalence and perceived risk of vaccination. Individuals may be timely vaccinators, delayers, or non-vaccinators. The model exhibits multiple equilibria and a broad range of possible dynamics. For certain parameter regimes, the proportion of timely vaccinators and delayers oscillate in an anti-phase fashion in response to oscillations in infection prevalence. Under an exogenous change to the perceived risk of vaccination as might occur during a vaccine scare, the model can also capture an increase in delayer strategists similar in magnitude to that observed during the Measles-Mumps-Rubella vaccine scare in the United Kingdom. Our model also shows that number of delayers steadily increases with increasing severity of the scare, whereas it saturates to specific value with increases in duration of the scare. Finally, by comparing the model dynamics with and without the option of a delayer strategy, we show that adding a third delayer strategy can have a stabilizing effect on model dynamics. In an era where individual choice--rather than accessibility--is becoming an increasingly important determinant of vaccine uptake, more infectious disease models may need to use game theory or related techniques to determine vaccine uptake. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Brief communication: Hip joint mobility in free-ranging rhesus macaques

PubMed Central

Hammond, Ashley S.; Johnson, Victoria P.; Higham, James P.

2016-01-01

Objectives We aimed to test for differences in hip joint range of motion (ROM) between captive and free-ranging rhesus macaques (Macaca mulatta), particularly for hip joint abduction, which previous studies of captive macaques have found to be lower than predicted. Materials and Methods Hip ROM was assessed following standard joint measurement methodology in anesthetized adult free-ranging rhesus macaques (n=39) from Cayo Santiago, and compared to published ROM data from captive rhesus macaques (n=16) (Hammond 2014a, American Journal of Physical Anthropology). Significant differences between populations were detected using one-way analysis of variance (p<0.05). Results In a sample of pooled sexes and ages, free-ranging macaques are capable of increased hip abduction, flexion, and internal rotation compared to captive individuals. These differences in joint excursion resulted in free-ranging individuals having significantly increased ROM for hip adduction-abduction, rotation, flexion-extension, and the distance spanned by the knee during hip abduction. When looking at data for a smaller sample of age-matched males, fewer ROM differences are significant, but free-ranging males have significantly increased hip abduction, internal rotation, range of flexion-extension, and distance spanned by the knee during hip abduction compared to captive males of similar age. Discussion Our results suggest that a spatially restrictive environment results in decreased hip mobility in cage-confined animals and ultimately limits the potential limb postures in captive macaques. These results have implications for selection of animal samples in model validation studies, as well as laboratory animal husbandry practices. PMID:27731892

Mountain building, strike-slip faulting, and landscape evolution in the Marlborough Fault System, NZ: Insights from new low-temperature thermochronology and modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duvall, A. R.; Collett, C.; Flowers, R. M.; Tucker, G. E.; Upton, P.

2016-12-01

The 150 km wide Marlborough Fault System (MFS) and adjacent dextral-reverse Alpine Fault accommodate oblique convergence of the Australian and Pacific plates in a broad transform boundary that extends for much of the South Island New Zealand. Understanding the deformation history of the Marlborough region offers the opportunity to study topographic evolution in a strike-slip setting and a fuller picture of the evolving New Zealand plate boundary as the MFS lies at the transition from oceanic Pacific plate subduction to oblique continental collision. Here we present low-temperature thermochronology from the MFS to place new limits on the timing and style of mountain building. We sampled a range of elevations spanning 2 km within and adjacent to the Kaikoura Mountains, which stand high as topographic anomalies above active strike-slip faults. Young apatite (U-Th)/He ages ( 2-5 Ma) on both sides of range-bounding faults are consistent with regional distributed deformation since the Pliocene initiation of strike-slip faulting. However, large differences in both zircon helium and apatite fission track ages, from Paleogene/Neogene ages within hanging walls to unreset >100 Ma ages in footwalls, indicate an early phase of fault-related vertical exhumation. Thermal modeling using the QTQt program reveals two phases of exhumation within the Kaikoura Ranges: rapid cooling at 15-12 Ma localized to hanging wall rocks and regional rapid cooling reflected in all samples starting at 4-5 Ma. These results and landscape evolution models suggest that, despite the presence of active mountain front faults, much of the topographic relief in this region may predate the onset of strike-slip faulting and that portions of the Marlborough Faults are re-activated thrusts that coincide with the early development of the transpressive plate boundary. Regional exhumation after 5 Ma likely reflects increased proximity to the migrating Pacific plate subduction zone and the buoyant Chatham Rise.

Inter-segment foot motion in girls using a three-dimensional multi-segment foot model.

PubMed

Jang, Woo Young; Lee, Dong Yeon; Jung, Hae Woon; Lee, Doo Jae; Yoo, Won Joon; Choi, In Ho

2018-05-06

Several multi-segment foot models (MFMs) have been introduced for in vivo analyses of dynamic foot kinematics. However, the normal gait patterns of healthy children and adolescents remain uncharacterized. We sought to determine normal foot kinematics according to age in clinically normal female children and adolescents using a Foot 3D model. Fifty-eight girls (age 7-17 years) with normal function and without radiographic abnormalities were tested. Three representative strides from five separate trials were analyzed. Kinematic data of foot segment motion were tracked and evaluated using an MFM with a 15-marker set (Foot 3D model). As controls, 50 symptom-free female adults (20-35 years old) were analyzed. In the hindfoot kinematic analysis, plantar flexion motion in the pre-swing phase was significantly greater in girls aged 11 years or older than in girls aged <11 years, thereby resulting in a larger sagittal range of motion. Coronal plane hindfoot motion exhibited pronation, whereas transverse plane hindfoot motion exhibited increased internal rotation in girls aged <11 years. Hallux valgus angles increased significantly in girls aged 11 years or older. The foot progression angle showed mildly increased internal rotation in the loading response phase and the swing phase in girls aged <11 years old. The patterns of inter-segment foot motion in girls aged 11 years or older showed low-arch kinematic characteristics, whereas those in girls aged 11 years or older were more similar to the patterns in young adult women. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Temperament factors and dimensional, latent bifactor models of child psychopathology: Transdiagnostic and specific associations in two youth samples.

PubMed

Hankin, Benjamin L; Davis, Elysia Poggi; Snyder, Hannah; Young, Jami F; Glynn, Laura M; Sandman, Curt A

2017-06-01

Common emotional and behavioral symptoms co-occur and are associated with core temperament factors. This study investigated links between temperament and dimensional, latent psychopathology factors, including a general common psychopathology factor (p factor) and specific latent internalizing and externalizing liabilities, as captured by a bifactor model, in two independent samples of youth. Specifically, we tested the hypothesis that temperament factors of negative affectivity (NA), positive affectivity (PA), and effortful control (EC) could serve as both transdiagnostic and specific risks in relation to recent bifactor models of child psychopathology. Sample 1 included 571 youth (average age 13.6, SD =2.37, range 9.3-17.5) with both youth and parent report. Sample 2 included 554 preadolescent children (average age 7.7, SD =1.35, range =5-11 years) with parent report. Structural equation modeling showed that the latent bifactor models fit in both samples. Replicated in both samples, the p factor was associated with lower EC and higher NA (transdiagnostic risks). Several specific risks replicated in both samples after controlling for co-occurring symptoms via the p factor: internalizing was associated with higher NA and lower PA, lower EC related to externalizing problems. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Is sweat chloride predictive of severity of cystic fibrosis lung disease assessed by chest computed tomography?

PubMed

Caudri, Daan; Zitter, David; Bronsveld, Inez; Tiddens, Harm

2017-09-01

Cystic Fibrosis (CF) lung disease is characterized by a marked heterogeneity. Sweat chloride-level is a functional marker of the CF Transmembrane Regulator (CFTR) protein and could be an important predictor of later disease severity. In this retrospective analysis children from the Rotterdam CF clinic with available sweat chloride level at diagnosis and at least one routine spirometry-controlled volumetric chest CT scan in follow-up were included. CT scans were scored using the CF-CT scoring system (% of maximum). Associations between sweat chloride-levels and CF-CT scores were calculated using linear regression models, adjusting for age at sweat test and age at follow-up. Because structural lung damage develops over the course of many years, effect modification by the age at follow-up CT-scan was tested for by age-stratification. In 59 children (30 male) sweat chloride was measured at diagnosis (median age 0.5 years, range 0-13) and later chest CT performed (median age 14 years, range 6-18). Sweat chloride was associated with significantly higher CT-CT total score, bronchiectasis score, and mucus plugging score. Stratification for age at follow-up in tertiles showed this association remained only in the oldest age group (range 15-18 years). In that subgroup associations were found with all but one of the CF-CT subscores, as well as with all tested lung functions parameters. Sweat chloride-level is a significant predictor of CF lung disease severity as determined by chest CT and lung function. This association could only be demonstrated in children with follow-up to age 15 years and above. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Genetic and environmental influences on sleep quality in middle-aged men: a twin study.

PubMed

Genderson, Margo R; Rana, Brinda K; Panizzon, Matthew S; Grant, Michael D; Toomey, Rosemary; Jacobson, Kristen C; Xian, Hong; Cronin-Golomb, Alice; Franz, Carol E; Kremen, William S; Lyons, Michael J

2013-10-01

Poor sleep quality is a risk factor for a number of cognitive and physiological age-related disorders. Identifying factors underlying sleep quality are important in understanding the etiology of these age-related health disorders. We investigated the extent to which genes and the environment contribute to subjective sleep quality in middle-aged male twins using the classical twin design. We used the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index to measure sleep quality in 1218 middle-aged twin men from the Vietnam Era Twin Study of Aging (mean age = 55.4 years; range 51-60; 339 monozygotic twin pairs, 257 dizygotic twin pairs, 26 unpaired twins). The mean PSQI global score was 5.6 [SD = 3.6; range 0-20]. Based on univariate twin models, 34% of variability in the global PSQI score was due to additive genetic effects (heritability) and 66% was attributed to individual-specific environmental factors. Common environment did not contribute to the variability. Similarly, the heritability of poor sleep-a dichotomous measure based on the cut-off of global PSQI>5-was 31%, with no contribution of the common environment. Heritability of six of the seven PSQI component scores (subjective sleep quality, sleep latency, sleep duration, habitual sleep efficiency, sleep disturbances, and daytime dysfunction) ranged from 0.15 to 0.31, whereas no genetic influences contributed to the use of sleeping medication. Additive genetic influences contribute to approximately one-third of the variability of global subjective sleep quality. Our results in middle-aged men constitute a first step towards examination of the genetic relationship between sleep and other facets of aging. © 2013 European Sleep Research Society.

Genetic and Environmental Influences on Sleep Quality in Middle-Aged Men: A Twin Study

PubMed Central

Genderson, Margo R.; Rana, Brinda K.; Panizzon, Matthew S.; Grant, Michael D.; Toomey, Rosemary; Jacobson, Kristen C.; Xian, Hong; Cronin-Golomb, Alice; Franz, Carol E.; Kremen, William S.; Lyons, Michael J.

2013-01-01

SUMMARY Poor sleep quality is a risk factor for a number of cognitive and physiological age-related disorders. Identifying factors underlying sleep quality are important in understanding the etiology of these age-related health disorders. We investigated the extent to which genes and the environment contribute to subjective sleep quality in middle-aged male twins using the classical twin design. We used the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index (PSQI) to measure sleep quality in 1218 middle-aged twin men from the Vietnam Era Twin Study of Aging (VETSA)(mean age=55.4 years; range 51–60; 339 monozygotic twin pairs, 257 dizygotic twin pairs, 26 unpaired twins). The mean PSQI global score was 5.6 (SD=3.6; range 0–20). Based on univariate twin models, 34% of variability in the global PSQI score was due to additive genetic effects (heritability) and 66% was attributed to individual-specific environmental factors. Common environment did not contribute to the variability. Similarly, the heritability of poor sleep—a dichotomous measure based on the cut-off of global PSQI>5--was 31% with no contribution of the common environment. Heritability of six of the seven PSQI component scores (Subjective Sleep Quality, Sleep Latency, Sleep Duration, Habitual Sleep Efficiency, Sleep Disturbances, and Daytime Dysfunction) ranged from .15 to .31, where as no genetic influences contributed to Use of Sleeping Medication. Additive genetic influences contribute to approximately one-third of the variability of global subjective sleep quality. Our results in middle-aged men constitute a first step toward examination of the genetic relationship between sleep and other facets of aging. PMID:23509903

Expected values for pedometer-determined physical activity in older populations

PubMed Central

2009-01-01

The purpose of this review is to update expected values for pedometer-determined physical activity in free-living healthy older populations. A search of the literature published since 2001 began with a keyword (pedometer, "step counter," "step activity monitor" or "accelerometer AND steps/day") search of PubMed, Cumulative Index to Nursing & Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), SportDiscus, and PsychInfo. An iterative process was then undertaken to abstract and verify studies of pedometer-determined physical activity (captured in terms of steps taken; distance only was not accepted) in free-living adult populations described as ≥ 50 years of age (studies that included samples which spanned this threshold were not included unless they provided at least some appropriately age-stratified data) and not specifically recruited based on any chronic disease or disability. We identified 28 studies representing at least 1,343 males and 3,098 females ranging in age from 50–94 years. Eighteen (or 64%) of the studies clearly identified using a Yamax pedometer model. Monitoring frames ranged from 3 days to 1 year; the modal length of time was 7 days (17 studies, or 61%). Mean pedometer-determined physical activity ranged from 2,015 steps/day to 8,938 steps/day. In those studies reporting such data, consistent patterns emerged: males generally took more steps/day than similarly aged females, steps/day decreased across study-specific age groupings, and BMI-defined normal weight individuals took more steps/day than overweight/obese older adults. The range of 2,000–9,000 steps/day likely reflects the true variability of physical activity behaviors in older populations. More explicit patterns, for example sex- and age-specific relationships, remain to be informed by future research endeavors. PMID:19706192

Evaluation of the cost-effectiveness in the United States of a vaccine to prevent herpes zoster and postherpetic neuralgia in older adults.

PubMed

Pellissier, James M; Brisson, Marc; Levin, Myron J

2007-11-28

A live-attenuated varicella-zoster virus vaccine, demonstrated to reduce the incidence of herpes zoster (HZ) and postherpetic neuralgia (PHN) and the morbidity associated with incident HZ and its sequelae, has recently been approved for use in the United States (U.S.). To examine the potential value of zoster vaccine for society and payers. DESIGN, SETTING AND POPULATION: An age-specific decision analytic model was designed to estimate the lifetime costs and outcomes associated with HZ, PHN and other HZ-related complications for vaccinated and non-vaccinated cohorts aged >or=60 years. Clinical trial data, published literature and other primary studies were used to inform the model. Robustness of results to key model parameters was explored through a series of one-way, multivariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. Both societal and payer perspectives were considered. Incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. For a representative cohort of 1,000,000 U.S. vaccine recipients aged >or=60 years, use of the zoster vaccine was projected to eliminate 75,548-88,928HZ cases and over 20,000 PHN cases. Over 300,000 outpatient visits, 375,000 prescriptions, 9,700 ER visits and 10,000 hospitalizations were projected to be eliminated with the vaccine translating into savings of US$ 82 million to US$ 103 million in healthcare costs associated with the diagnosis and treatment of HZ, PHN and other HZ-related complications. Cost-effectiveness ratios range from US$ 16,229 to US$ 27,609 per QALY gained, depending on the input data source and analytic perspective. Results were most sensitive to PHN costs, duration of vaccine efficacy, vaccine efficacy against PHN and HZ, QALY loss associated with pain states and complication costs. The zoster vaccine at a price of US$ 150 is likely to be cost-effective for a cohort of immunocompetent U.S. vaccine recipients aged >or=60 years using commonly cited thresholds for judging cost-effectiveness. Conclusions are robust over plausible ranges of input parameter values and a broad range of scenarios and age cohorts.

Evidence for feedback and stellar-dynamically regulated bursty star cluster formation: the case of the Orion Nebula Cluster

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kroupa, Pavel; Jeřábková, Tereza; Dinnbier, František; Beccari, Giacomo; Yan, Zhiqiang

2018-04-01

A scenario for the formation of multiple co-eval populations separated in age by about 1 Myr in very young clusters (VYCs, ages less than 10 Myr) and with masses in the range 600-20 000 M⊙ is outlined. It rests upon a converging inflow of molecular gas building up a first population of pre-main sequence stars. The associated just-formed O stars ionise the inflow and suppress star formation in the embedded cluster. However, they typically eject each other out of the embedded cluster within 106 yr, that is before the molecular cloud filament can be ionised entirely. The inflow of molecular gas can then resume forming a second population. This sequence of events can be repeated maximally over the life-time of the molecular cloud (about 10 Myr), but is not likely to be possible in VYCs with mass <300 M⊙, because such populations are not likely to contain an O star. Stellar populations heavier than about 2000 M⊙ are likely to have too many O stars for all of these to eject each other from the embedded cluster before they disperse their natal cloud. VYCs with masses in the range 600-2000 M⊙ are likely to have such multi-age populations, while VYCs with masses in the range 2000-20 000 M⊙ can also be composed solely of co-eval, mono-age populations. More massive VYCs are not likely to host sub-populations with age differences of about 1 Myr. This model is applied to the Orion Nebula Cluster (ONC), in which three well-separated pre-main sequences in the colour-magnitude diagram of the cluster have recently been discovered. The mass-inflow history is constrained using this model and the number of OB stars ejected from each population are estimated for verification using Gaia data. As a further consequence of the proposed model, the three runaway O star systems, AE Aur, μ Col and ι Ori, are considered as significant observational evidence for stellar-dynamical ejections of massive stars from the oldest population in the ONC. Evidence for stellar-dynamical ejections of massive stars in the currently forming population is also discussed.

Epidemiology of Plasmodium falciparum gametocytemia in India: prevalence, age structure, risk factors and the role of a predictive score for detection.

PubMed

Shah, Naman K; Poole, Charles; MacDonald, Pia D M; Srivastava, Bina; Schapira, Allan; Juliano, Jonathan J; Anvikar, Anup; Meshnick, Steven R; Valecha, Neena; Mishra, Neelima

2013-07-01

To characterise the epidemiology of Plasmodium falciparum gametocytemia and determine the prevalence, age structure and the viability of a predictive model for detection. We collected data from 21 therapeutic efficacy trials conducted in India during 2009-2010 and estimated the contribution of each age group to the reservoir of transmission. We built a predictive model for gametocytemia and calculated the diagnostic utility of different score cut-offs from our risk score. Gametocytemia was present in 18% (248/1 335) of patients and decreased with age. Adults constituted 43%, school-age children 45% and under fives 12% of the reservoir for potential transmission. Our model retained age, sex, region and previous antimalarial drug intake as predictors of gametocytemia. The area under the receiver operator characteristic curve was 0.76 (95%CI:0.73,0.78), and a cut-off of 14 or more on a risk score ranging from 0 to 46 provided 91% (95%CI:88,95) sensitivity and 33% (95%CI:31,36) specificity for detecting gametocytemia. Gametocytemia was common in India and varied by region. Notably, adults contributed substantially to the reservoir for potential transmission. Predictive modelling to generate a clinical algorithm for detecting gametocytemia did not provide sufficient discrimination for targeting interventions. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Estimating 14C groundwater ages in a methanogenic aquifer

USGS Publications Warehouse

Aravena, Ramon; Wassenaar, Leonard I; Plummer, Niel

1995-01-01

This paper addresses the problem of 14C age dating of groundwaters in a confined regional aquifer affected by methanogenesis. Increasing CH4 concentrations along the groundwater flow system and 13C and 14C isotopic data for dissolved inorganic carbon, dissolved organic carbon, and CH4 clearly show the effect of methanogenesis on groundwater chemistry. Inverse reaction path modeling using NETPATH indicates the predominant geochemical reactions controlling the chemical evolution of groundwater in the aquifer are incongruent dissolution of dolomite, ion exchange, methanogenesis, and oxidation of sedimentary organic matter. Modeling of groundwater 14C ages using NETPATH indicates that a significant part of groundwater in the Alliston aquifer is less than 13,000 years old; however, older groundwater in the range of 15,000–23,000 years is also present in the aquifer. This paper demonstrates that 14C ages calculated using NETPATH, incorporating the effects of methanogenesis on the carbon pools, provide reasonable groundwater ages that were not possible by other isotopic methods.

A prospective analysis of the role of cognition in three models of aging and schizophrenia.

PubMed

Cohen, Carl I; Murante, Tessa

2017-07-02

This study uses longitudinal data from a sample of older adults with schizophrenia spectrum disorder (OAS) to examine the role of cognition in 3 models of aging and schizophrenia-accelerated aging, paradoxical aging, and heterogeneity of course-and their clinical relevance. The sample consisted of 103 community-dwelling persons aged 55 and over (mean=61years) with early-onset schizophrenia. Mean follow-up was 52.5months (range: 12-116months); 55% were men; 55% were white. We identified 21 potential predictor variables and used the Dementia Rating Scale (DRS) to assess cognition. There were no significant differences in the DRS at baseline (T1) and follow-up (T2). However, 20%, 22% and 58% of persons exhibited >0.5 effect size increase or decrease, or no change in their DRS scores, respectively; 19% were rapid decliners (>-2.11pts/year) and 19% were rapid improvers (>+2.11pts/year). In multivariable analysis, there were 3 predictors of higher DRS (T2): DRS (T1), decline in anxiety score, and race (white). The heterogeneity model best characterized the trajectory of cognition in later life. The accelerated aging model did not represent typical cognitive trajectories since most individuals were stable or improved. The heterogeneous trajectories made it difficult to generalize about cognition's role in the paradoxical aging model. Despite the paucity of predictors, our findings suggested that it may be clinically productive to enlist remediation strategies that target anxiety and cognition, and direct more attention to non-white OAS. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Harmonized Reference Ranges for Circulating Testosterone Levels in Men of Four Cohort Studies in the United States and Europe

PubMed Central

Travison, Thomas G.; Vesper, Hubert W.; Orwoll, Eric; Wu, Frederick; Kaufman, Jean Marc; Wang, Ying; Lapauw, Bruno; Fiers, Tom; Matsumoto, Alvin M.

2017-01-01

Background: Reference ranges for testosterone are essential for making a diagnosis of hypogonadism in men. Objective: To establish harmonized reference ranges for total testosterone in men that can be applied across laboratories by cross-calibrating assays to a reference method and standard. Population: The 9054 community-dwelling men in cohort studies in the United States and Europe: Framingham Heart Study; European Male Aging Study; Osteoporotic Fractures in Men Study; and Male Sibling Study of Osteoporosis. Methods: Testosterone concentrations in 100 participants in each of the four cohorts were measured using a reference method at Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Generalized additive models and Bland-Altman analyses supported the use of normalizing equations for transformation between cohort-specific and CDC values. Normalizing equations, generated using Passing-Bablok regression, were used to generate harmonized values, which were used to derive standardized, age-specific reference ranges. Results: Harmonization procedure reduced intercohort variation between testosterone measurements in men of similar ages. In healthy nonobese men, 19 to 39 years, harmonized 2.5th, 5th, 50th, 95th, and 97.5th percentile values were 264, 303, 531, 852, and 916 ng/dL, respectively. Age-specific harmonized testosterone concentrations in nonobese men were similar across cohorts and greater than in all men. Conclusion: Harmonized normal range in a healthy nonobese population of European and American men, 19 to 39 years, is 264 to 916 ng/dL. A substantial proportion of intercohort variation in testosterone levels is due to assay differences. These data demonstrate the feasibility of generating harmonized reference ranges for testosterone that can be applied to assays, which have been calibrated to a reference method and calibrator. PMID:28324103

Cost and efficacy comparison of in vitro fertilization and tubal anastomosis for women after tubal ligation

PubMed Central

Messinger, Lauren B.; Alford, Connie E.; Csokmay, John M.; Henne, Melinda B.; Mumford, Sunni L.; Segars, James H.; Armstrong, Alicia Y.

2016-01-01

Objective To compare cost and efficacy of tubal anastomosis to in vitro fertilization (IVF) in women who desired fertility after a tubal ligation. Design Cost-effectiveness analysis. Setting Not applicable. Patient(s) Not applicable. Intervention(s) Not applicable. Main Outcome Measure(s) Cost per ongoing pregnancy. Result(s) Cost per ongoing pregnancy for women after tubal anastomosis ranged from $16,446 to $223,482 (2014 USD), whereas IVF ranged from $32,902 to $111,679 (2014 USD). Across maternal age groups <35 and 35–40, years tubal anastomosis was more cost effective than IVF for ongoing pregnancy. Sensitivity analyses validated these findings across a wide range of ongoing pregnancy probabilities as well as costs per procedure. Conclusion(s) Tubal anastomosis was the most cost-effective approach for most women less than 41 years of age, whereas IVF was the most cost-effective approach for women aged ≥41 years who desired fertility after tubal ligation. A model was created that can be modified based on cost and success rates in individual clinics for improved patient counseling. PMID:26006734

Cost and efficacy comparison of in vitro fertilization and tubal anastomosis for women after tubal ligation.

PubMed

Messinger, Lauren B; Alford, Connie E; Csokmay, John M; Henne, Melinda B; Mumford, Sunni L; Segars, James H; Armstrong, Alicia Y

2015-07-01

To compare cost and efficacy of tubal anastomosis to in vitro fertilization (IVF) in women who desired fertility after a tubal ligation. Cost-effectiveness analysis. Not applicable. Not applicable. Not applicable. Cost per ongoing pregnancy. Cost per ongoing pregnancy for women after tubal anastomosis ranged from $16,446 to $223,482 (2014 USD), whereas IVF ranged from $32,902 to $111,679 (2014 USD). Across maternal age groups <35 and 35-40, years tubal anastomosis was more cost effective than IVF for ongoing pregnancy. Sensitivity analyses validated these findings across a wide range of ongoing pregnancy probabilities as well as costs per procedure. Tubal anastomosis was the most cost-effective approach for most women less than 41 years of age, whereas IVF was the most cost-effective approach for women aged ≥41 years who desired fertility after tubal ligation. A model was created that can be modified based on cost and success rates in individual clinics for improved patient counseling. Copyright © 2015 American Society for Reproductive Medicine. All rights reserved.

Different Context but Similar Cognitive Structures: Older Adults in Rural Bangladesh.

PubMed

Sternäng, Ola; Lövdén, Martin; Kabir, Zarina N; Hamadani, Jena D; Wahlin, Åke

2016-06-01

Most research in cognitive aging is based on literate participants from high-income and Western populations. The extent to which findings generalize to low-income and illiterate populations is unknown. The main aim was to examine the structure of between-person differences in cognitive functions among elderly from rural Bangladesh. We used data from the Poverty and Health in Aging (PHA) project in Bangladesh. The participants (n = 452) were in the age range 60-92 years. Structural equation modeling was used to estimate the fit of a five-factor model (episodic recall, episodic recognition, verbal fluency, semantic knowledge, processing speed) and to examine whether the model generalized across age, sex, and literacy. This study demonstrates that an established model of cognition is valid also among older persons from rural Bangladesh. The model demonstrated strong (or scalar) invariance for age, and partial strong invariance for sex and literacy. Semantic knowledge and processing speed showed weak (or metric) sex invariance, and semantic knowledge demonstrated also sensitivity to illiteracy. In general, women performed poorer on all abilities. The structure of individual cognitive differences established in Western populations also fits a population in rural Bangladesh well. This is an important prerequisite for comparisons of cognitive functioning (e.g., declarative memory) across cultures. It is also worth noting that absolute sex differences in cognitive performance among rural elderly in Bangladesh differ from those usually found in Western samples.

Effect of anatomical variability in brain on transcranial magnetic stimulation treatment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Syeda, F.; Magsood, H.; Lee, E. G.; El-Gendy, A. A.; Jiles, D. C.; Hadimani, R. L.

2017-05-01

Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation is a non-invasive clinical therapy used to treat depression and migraine, and shows further promise as treatment for Parkinson's disease, Alzheimer's disease, and other neurological disorders. However, it is yet unclear as to how anatomical differences may affect stimulation from this treatment. We use finite element analysis to model and analyze the results of Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation in various head models. A number of heterogeneous head models have been developed using MRI data of real patients, including healthy individuals as well as patients of Parkinson's disease. Simulations of Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation performed on 22 anatomically different models highlight the differences in induced stimulation. A standard Figure of 8 coil is used with frequency 2.5 kHz, placed 5 mm above the head. We compare cortical stimulation, volume of brain tissue stimulated, specificity, and maximum E-field induced in the brain for models ranging from ages 20 to 60. Results show that stimulation varies drastically between patients of the same age and health status depending upon brain-scalp distance, which is not necessarily a linear progression with age.

Effect of Parkinson's Disease in Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation Treatment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Syeda, Farheen; Magsood, Hamzah; Lee, Erik; El-Gendy, Ahmed; Jiles, David; Hadimani, Ravi

Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation is a non-invasive clinical therapy used to treat depression and migraine, and shows further promise as treatment for Parkinson's disease, Alzheimer's disease, and other neurological disorders. However, it is yet unclear as to how anatomical differences may affect stimulation from this treatment. We use finite element analysis to model and analyze the results of Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation in various head models. A number of heterogeneous head models have been developed using MRI data of real patients, including healthy individuals as well as patients of Parkinson's disease. Simulations of Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation performed on 22 anatomically different models highlight the differences in induced stimulation. A standard Figure of 8 coil is used with frequency 2.5 kHz, placed 5 mm above the head. We compare cortical stimulation, volume of brain tissue stimulated, specificity, and maximum E-field induced in the brain for models ranging from ages 20 to 60. Results show that stimulation varies drastically between patients of the same age and health status depending upon brain-scalp distance, which is not necessarily a linear progression with age.

Comparing single- and dual-process models of memory development.

PubMed

Hayes, Brett K; Dunn, John C; Joubert, Amy; Taylor, Robert

2017-11-01

This experiment examined single-process and dual-process accounts of the development of visual recognition memory. The participants, 6-7-year-olds, 9-10-year-olds and adults, were presented with a list of pictures which they encoded under shallow or deep conditions. They then made recognition and confidence judgments about a list containing old and new items. We replicated the main trends reported by Ghetti and Angelini () in that recognition hit rates increased from 6 to 9 years of age, with larger age changes following deep than shallow encoding. Formal versions of the dual-process high threshold signal detection model and several single-process models (equal variance signal detection, unequal variance signal detection, mixture signal detection) were fit to the developmental data. The unequal variance and mixture signal detection models gave a better account of the data than either of the other models. A state-trace analysis found evidence for only one underlying memory process across the age range tested. These results suggest that single-process memory models based on memory strength are a viable alternative to dual-process models for explaining memory development. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Zircon U-Pb age, Hf isotopic compositions and geochemistry of the Silurian Fengdingshan I-type granite Pluton and Taoyuan mafic-felsic Complex at the southeastern margin of the Yangtze Block

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhong, Yufang; Ma, Changqian; Zhang, Chao; Wang, Shiming; She, Zhenbing; Liu, Lei; Xu, Haijin

2013-09-01

This work presents an integrated study of zircon U-Pb ages and Hf isotope along with whole-rock geochemistry on Silurian Fengdingshan I-type granites and Taoyuan mafic-felsic intrusive Complex located at the southeastern margin of the Yangtze Block, filling in a gap in understanding of Paleozoic I-type granites and mafic-intermediate igneous rocks in the eastern South China Craton (SCC). The Fengdingshan granite and Taoyuan hornblende gabbro are dated at 436 ± 5 Ma and 409 ± 2 Ma, respectively. The Fengdingshan granites display characteristics of calc-alkaline I-type granite with high initial 87Sr/86Sr ratios of 0.7093-0.7127, low ɛNd(t) values ranging from -5.6 to -5.4 and corresponding Nd model ages (T2DM) of 1.6 Ga. Their zircon grains have ɛHf(t) values ranging from -2.7 to 2.6 and model ages of 951-1164 Ma. The Taoyuan mafic rocks exhibit typical arc-like geochemistry, with enrichment in Rb, Th, U and Pb and depletion in Nb, Ta. They have initial 87Sr/86Sr ratios of 0.7053-0.7058, ɛNd(t) values of 0.2-1.6 and corresponding T2DM of 1.0-1.1 Ga. Their zircon grains have ɛHf(t) values ranging from 3.2 to 6.1 and model ages of 774-911 Ma. Diorite and granodiorite from the Taoyuan Complex have initial 87Sr/86Sr ratios of 0.7065-0.7117, ɛNd(t) values from -5.7 to -1.9 and Nd model ages of 1.3-1.6 Ga. The petrographic and geochemical characteristics indicate that the Fengdingshan granites probably formed by reworking of Neoproterozoic basalts with very little of juvenile mantle-derived magma. The Taoyuan Complex formed by magma mixing and mingling, in which the mafic member originated from a metasomatized lithospheric mantle. Both the Fengdingshan and Taoyuan Plutons formed in a post-orogenic collapse stage in an intracontinental tectonic regime. Besides the Paleozoic Fengdingshan granites and Taoyuan hornblende gabbro, other Neoproterozoic and Indosinian igneous rocks located along the southeastern and western margin of the Yangtze Block also exhibit decoupled Nd-Hf isotopic systemics, which may be a fingerprint of a previous late Mesoproterozoic to early Neoproterozoic oceanic subduction.

Serum levels of the immune activation marker neopterin change with age and gender and are modified by race, BMI, and percentage of body fat.

PubMed

Spencer, Monique E; Jain, Alka; Matteini, Amy; Beamer, Brock A; Wang, Nae-Yuh; Leng, Sean X; Punjabi, Naresh M; Walston, Jeremy D; Fedarko, Neal S

2010-08-01

Neopterin, a GTP metabolite expressed by macrophages, is a marker of immune activation. We hypothesize that levels of this serum marker alter with donor age, reflecting increased chronic immune activation in normal aging. In addition to age, we assessed gender, race, body mass index (BMI), and percentage of body fat (%fat) as potential covariates. Serum was obtained from 426 healthy participants whose age ranged from 18 to 87 years. Anthropometric measures included %fat and BMI. Neopterin concentrations were measured by competitive ELISA. The paired associations between neopterin and age, BMI, or %fat were analyzed by Spearman's correlation or by linear regression of log-transformed neopterin, whereas overall associations were modeled by multiple regression of log-transformed neopterin as a function of age, gender, race, BMI, %fat, and interaction terms. Across all participants, neopterin exhibited a positive association with age, BMI, and %fat. Multiple regression modeling of neopterin in women and men as a function of age, BMI, and race revealed that each covariate contributed significantly to neopterin values and that optimal modeling required an interaction term between race and BMI. The covariate %fat was highly correlated with BMI and could be substituted for BMI to yield similar regression coefficients. The association of age and gender with neopterin levels and their modification by race, BMI, or %fat reflect the biology underlying chronic immune activation and perhaps gender differences in disease incidence, morbidity, and mortality.

Aging and the rate of visual information processing.

PubMed

Guest, Duncan; Howard, Christina J; Brown, Louise A; Gleeson, Harriet

2015-01-01

Multiple methods exist for measuring how age influences the rate of visual information processing. The most advanced methods model the processing dynamics in a task in order to estimate processing rates independently of other factors that might be influenced by age, such as overall performance level and the time at which processing onsets. However, such modeling techniques have produced mixed evidence for age effects. Using a time-accuracy function (TAF) analysis, Kliegl, Mayr, and Krampe (1994) showed clear evidence for age effects on processing rate. In contrast, using the diffusion model to examine the dynamics of decision processes, Ratcliff and colleagues (e.g., Ratcliff, Thapar, & McKoon, 2006) found no evidence for age effects on processing rate across a range of tasks. Examination of these studies suggests that the number of display stimuli might account for the different findings. In three experiments we measured the precision of younger and older adults' representations of target stimuli after different amounts of stimulus exposure. A TAF analysis found little evidence for age differences in processing rate when a single stimulus was presented (Experiment 1). However, adding three nontargets to the display resulted in age-related slowing of processing (Experiment 2). Similar slowing was observed when simply presenting two stimuli and using a post-cue to indicate the target (Experiment 3). Although there was some interference from distracting objects and from previous responses, these age-related effects on processing rate seem to reflect an age-related difficulty in processing multiple objects, particularly when encoding them into visual working memory.

Variable growth and longevity of yellow bullhead (Ameiurus natalis) in the Everglades of south Florida, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Murie, D.J.; Parkyn, D.C.; Loftus, W.F.; Nico, L.G.

2009-01-01

Yellow bullhead (Ictaluridae: Ameiurus natalis) is the most abundant ictalurid catfish in the Everglades of southern Florida, USA, and, as both prey and predator, is one of many essential components in the ecological-simulation models used in assessing restoration success in the Everglades. Little is known of its biology and life history in this southernmost portion of its native range; the present study provides the first estimates of age and growth from the Everglades. In total, 144 yellow bullheads of 97-312 mm total length (TL) were collected from canals and marshes of the Everglades between April 2000 and January 2001, and from October 2003 to February 2005. Fish were aged using cross-sections of pectoral spines and ranged from 1-12 years, with the maximum age almost twice that of any yellow bullhead previously reported. Yellow bullheads from south Florida grew relatively rapidly during their first 3 years, but after age 5 growth slowed and fish approached an asymptote of ???214 mm TL. Compared to other populations in the United States, yellow bullhead in the Everglades grew relatively slowly, were smaller at age overall, but survived to older ages. ?? 2009 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Serum uric acid in U.S. adolescents: distribution and relationship to demographic characteristics and cardiovascular risk factors.

PubMed

Shatat, Ibrahim F; Abdallah, Rany T; Sas, David J; Hailpern, Susan M

2012-07-01

Despite being associated with multiple disease processes and cardiovascular outcomes, uric acid (UA) reference ranges for adolescents are lacking. We sought to describe the distribution of UA and its relationship to demographic, clinical, socioeconomic, and dietary factors among U.S. adolescents. A nationally representative subsample of 1,912 adolescents aged 13-18 years in NHANES 2005-2008 representing 19,888,299 adolescents was used for this study. Percentiles of the distribution of UA were estimated using quantile regression. Linear regression models examined the association of UA and demographic, socioeconomic, and dietary factors. Mean UA level was 5.14 ± 1.45 mg/dl. Mean UA increased with increasing age and was higher in non-Hispanic white race, male sex, higher body mass index (BMI) Z-score, and with higher systolic blood pressure. In fully adjusted linear regression models, sex, age, race, and BMI were independent determinants of higher UA. This study defines serum UA reference ranges for adolescents. Also, it reveals some intriguing relationships between UA and demographic and clinical characteristics that warrant further studies to examine the pathophysiological role of UA in different disease processes.

Connections between residence time distributions and watershed characteristics across the continental US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Condon, L. E.; Maxwell, R. M.; Kollet, S. J.; Maher, K.; Haggerty, R.; Forrester, M. M.

2016-12-01

Although previous studies have demonstrated fractal residence time distributions in small watersheds, analyzing residence time scaling over large spatial areas is difficult with existing observational methods. For this study we use a fully integrated groundwater surface water simulation combined with Lagrangian particle tracking to evaluate connections between residence time distributions and watershed characteristics such as geology, topography and climate. Our simulation spans more than six million square kilometers of the continental US, encompassing a broad range of watershed sizes and physiographic settings. Simulated results demonstrate power law residence time distributions with peak age rages from 1.5 to 10.5 years. These ranges agree well with previous observational work and demonstrate the feasibility of using integrated models to simulate residence times. Comparing behavior between eight major watersheds, we show spatial variability in both the peak and the variance of the residence time distributions that can be related to model inputs. Peak age is well correlated with basin averaged hydraulic conductivity and the semi-variance corresponds to aridity. While power law age distributions have previously been attributed to fractal topography, these results illustrate the importance of subsurface characteristics and macro climate as additional controls on groundwater configuration and residence times.

Thermochronological Evidence for Cenozoic Segmentation of Transantarctic Mountains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zattin, M.; Pace, D.; Andreucci, B.; Rossetti, F.; Talarico, F.

2013-12-01

The Transantarctic Mountains (TAM) represent the boundary between the cratonic East Antarctica and the West Antarctica and are thus related to formation of the Western Antarctic Rift system (WARS). However, temporal relationships between timing of TAM uplift and evolution of the WARS are not clear. The large amount of existing thermochronological data indicate that exhumation of the TAM occurred at different times and extents, with main cooling events in the Early Cretaceous, Late Cretaceous, and early Cenozoic. Uplift of the different segments of the TAM was not recorded according to regular trends along the mountain chain, but instead appears diachronous and without a recognizable spatial pattern. Here we present apatite fission-track (AFT) data from 20 samples, collected from metamorphic and intrusive rocks from the region comprised between the Blue Glacier and the Byrd Glacier. AFT data show a large variety of ages, ranging from 28.0 to 88.8 Ma and without a clear correlation between age and elevation. As a whole, spatial variations suggest a decrease of ages from S to the region of the Koettlitz Glacier, where ages suddenly raise up to Cretaceous values. A marked increase of ages has been detected also south of Darwin Glacier, that is in correspondence of the Britannia Range. Thermal modelling shows that cooling paths are usually composite, with a main cooling event followed by slower cooling to present day temperatures. Time of main cooling event is late Cretaceous for samples from the Britannia Range whereas it is Eocene-Oligocene for samples from Koettlitz and Mulock areas. In any case, cooling rates are always quite low also during periods of enhanced uplift, with values not exceeding 5°C/Ma. These data support the idea of tectonic block segmentation of the TAM during the last phases of exhumation. Most of vertical displacements occurred during the Oligocene across transverse fault zones such as the Discovery Accommodation Zone to the north and the Britannia Range to the south. The region comprised between these major tectonic structures represented probably a main source for the sediments that filled the Victoria Land basin during the Neogene. In fact bedrock AFT ages match well with detrital grain age distributions detected on sedimentary successions drilled by ANDRILL and CRP projects. Modelling of detrital AFT and apatite U-Th/He ages reveal that most of the source region was exhumed of about 5 km during Cenozoic. This value largely exceeds the estimated ice-related erosion which has been supposed to locally reach about 3 km along overdeepened pre-existing river valleys and in localized areas below sea level.

Real-life fatal outcome in car-to-car near-side impacts--implications for improved protection considering age and crash severity.

PubMed

Sunnevang, Cecilia; Rosén, Erik; Bostrom, Ola

2009-04-01

Recent studies have shown that current side airbags, protecting head and chest, are saving lives in near-side impacts (Kahane 2007; McCartt and Kyrychenko 2007). The aim of this study was to analyze NASS/CDS real-life data on fatal trauma in near-side car-to-car crashes, stratified by age into non-senior and senior occupants. Furthermore, a hypothetical model explaining side airbag effectiveness as a function of lateral delta-v was presented. The model together with the field data was then used to demonstrate further enhancement of side airbag restraint performance. Weighted NASS/CDS data from 1994 to 2006 for front seat occupants in near-side car-to-car impacts was used to calculate the exposure, incidence, and risk of fatal trauma with respect to lateral delta-v. The dataset was also divided into non-senior (10-59 years) and senior (age > or = 60 years) occupants. The hypothetical model was created to adjust the NASS/CDS data to represent a car fleet fully equipped with current side airbag protection. The model was then used to evaluate the increase in effectiveness of improved side airbag protection achieved by increasing the lateral delta-v in the range where the airbag have most mitigating effect, increasing the airbag protection level within the delta-v range currently tested, and a combination of the two approaches. From the NASS/CDS data, the median delta-v for fatal injury was 37 km/h for the total sample. When stratified with respect to age, the median delta-v for fatal injury was 41 km/h for non-seniors and 28 km/h for senior occupants. The exposures for both age groups were similar. However, the fatal incidence showed a difference in delta-v range between non-senior and senior occupants. Applying the airbag model increased the median delta-v to 40 km/h for the total sample and 47 and 30 km/h for non-seniors and seniors, respectively. Current side airbag systems offer very good protection for non-senior occupants up to delta-v 40 km/h. Though still high, the protection for senior occupants is lower. To enhance side airbag protection, the side airbag performance should be maximized where the fatal incidence is high. Therefore, to further reduce non-senior fatalities, the test speed should be increased. To further reduce senior fatalities, the protection level within severities currently tested should be increased. A combination of the two approaches would result in about a 40 percent increase of the side airbag effectiveness.

Small impact craters in the lunar regolith - Their morphologies, relative ages, and rates of formation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moore, H.J.; Boyce, J.M.; Hahn, D.A.

1980-01-01

Apparently, there are two types of size-frequency distributions of small lunar craters (???1-100 m across): (1) crater production distributions for which the cumulative frequency of craters is an inverse function of diameter to power near 2.8, and (2) steady-state distributions for which the cumulative frequency of craters is inversely proportional to the square of their diameters. According to theory, cumulative frequencies of craters in each morphologic category within the steady-state should also be an inverse function of the square of their diameters. Some data on frequency distribution of craters by morphologic types are approximately consistent with theory, whereas other data are inconsistent with theory. A flux of crater producing objects can be inferred from size-frequency distributions of small craters on the flanks and ejecta of craters of known age. Crater frequency distributions and data on the craters Tycho, North Ray, Cone, and South Ray, when compared with the flux of objects measured by the Apollo Passive Seismometer, suggest that the flux of objects has been relatively constant over the last 100 m.y. (within 1/3 to 3 times of the flux estimated for Tycho). Steady-state frequency distributions for craters in several morphologic categories formed the basis for estimating the relative ages of craters and surfaces in a system used during the Apollo landing site mapping program of the U.S. Geological Survey. The relative ages in this system are converted to model absolute ages that have a rather broad range of values. The range of values of the absolute ages are between about 1/3 to 3 times the assigned model absolute age. ?? 1980 D. Reidel Publishing Co.

High-resolution 14C dating of a 25,000-year lake-sediment record from equatorial East Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blaauw, Maarten; van Geel, Bas; Kristen, Iris; Plessen, Birgit; Lyaruu, Anna; Engstrom, Daniel R.; van der Plicht, Johannes; Verschuren, Dirk

2011-10-01

We dated a continuous, ˜22-m long sediment sequence from Lake Challa (Mt. Kilimanjaro area, Kenya/Tanzania) to produce a solid chronological framework for multi-proxy reconstructions of climate and environmental change in equatorial East Africa over the past 25,000 years. The age model is based on a total of 168 AMS 14C dates on bulk-organic matter, combined with a 210Pb chronology for recent sediments and corrected for a variable old-carbon age offset. This offset was estimated by i) pairing bulk-organic 14C dates with either 210Pb-derived time markers or 14C dates on grass charcoal, and ii) wiggle-matching high-density series of bulk-organic 14C dates. Variation in the old-carbon age offset through time is relatively modest, ranging from ˜450 yr during glacial and late glacial time to ˜200 yr during the early and mid-Holocene, and increasing again to ˜250 yr today. The screened and corrected 14C dates were calibrated sequentially, statistically constrained by their stratigraphical order. As a result their constrained calendar-age distributions are much narrower, and the calibrated dates more precise, than if each 14C date had been calibrated on its own. The smooth-spline age-depth model has 95% age uncertainty ranges of ˜50-230 yr during the Holocene and ˜250-550 yr in the glacial section of the record. The δ 13C values of paired bulk-organic and grass-charcoal samples, and additional 14C dating on selected turbidite horizons, indicates that the old-carbon age offset in Lake Challa is caused by a variable contribution of old terrestrial organic matter eroded from soils, and controlled mainly by changes in vegetation cover within the crater basin.

Age, gender, and puberty influence the development of facial emotion recognition.

PubMed

Lawrence, Kate; Campbell, Ruth; Skuse, David

2015-01-01

Our ability to differentiate between simple facial expressions of emotion develops between infancy and early adulthood, yet few studies have explored the developmental trajectory of emotion recognition using a single methodology across a wide age-range. We investigated the development of emotion recognition abilities through childhood and adolescence, testing the hypothesis that children's ability to recognize simple emotions is modulated by chronological age, pubertal stage and gender. In order to establish norms, we assessed 478 children aged 6-16 years, using the Ekman-Friesen Pictures of Facial Affect. We then modeled these cross-sectional data in terms of competence in accurate recognition of the six emotions studied, when the positive correlation between emotion recognition and IQ was controlled. Significant linear trends were seen in children's ability to recognize facial expressions of happiness, surprise, fear, and disgust; there was improvement with increasing age. In contrast, for sad and angry expressions there is little or no change in accuracy over the age range 6-16 years; near-adult levels of competence are established by middle-childhood. In a sampled subset, pubertal status influenced the ability to recognize facial expressions of disgust and anger; there was an increase in competence from mid to late puberty, which occurred independently of age. A small female advantage was found in the recognition of some facial expressions. The normative data provided in this study will aid clinicians and researchers in assessing the emotion recognition abilities of children and will facilitate the identification of abnormalities in a skill that is often impaired in neurodevelopmental disorders. If emotion recognition abilities are a good model with which to understand adolescent development, then these results could have implications for the education, mental health provision and legal treatment of teenagers.

Age, gender, and puberty influence the development of facial emotion recognition

PubMed Central

Lawrence, Kate; Campbell, Ruth; Skuse, David

2015-01-01

Our ability to differentiate between simple facial expressions of emotion develops between infancy and early adulthood, yet few studies have explored the developmental trajectory of emotion recognition using a single methodology across a wide age-range. We investigated the development of emotion recognition abilities through childhood and adolescence, testing the hypothesis that children’s ability to recognize simple emotions is modulated by chronological age, pubertal stage and gender. In order to establish norms, we assessed 478 children aged 6–16 years, using the Ekman-Friesen Pictures of Facial Affect. We then modeled these cross-sectional data in terms of competence in accurate recognition of the six emotions studied, when the positive correlation between emotion recognition and IQ was controlled. Significant linear trends were seen in children’s ability to recognize facial expressions of happiness, surprise, fear, and disgust; there was improvement with increasing age. In contrast, for sad and angry expressions there is little or no change in accuracy over the age range 6–16 years; near-adult levels of competence are established by middle-childhood. In a sampled subset, pubertal status influenced the ability to recognize facial expressions of disgust and anger; there was an increase in competence from mid to late puberty, which occurred independently of age. A small female advantage was found in the recognition of some facial expressions. The normative data provided in this study will aid clinicians and researchers in assessing the emotion recognition abilities of children and will facilitate the identification of abnormalities in a skill that is often impaired in neurodevelopmental disorders. If emotion recognition abilities are a good model with which to understand adolescent development, then these results could have implications for the education, mental health provision and legal treatment of teenagers. PMID:26136697

Volcanic synchronisation of the EPICA-DC and TALDICE ice cores for the last 42 kyr BP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Severi, M.; Udisti, R.; Becagli, S.; Stenni, B.; Traversi, R.

2012-04-01

An age scale synchronisation between the Talos Dome and the EPICA Dome C ice cores was carried on through the identification of several common volcanic signatures for the last 42 kyr. Using this tight stratigraphic link we transferred the EDC age scale to the Talos Dome ice core producing a new age scale for the last 12 kyr. We estimated the discrepancies between the modeled TALDICE-1 age scale and the new one during the studied period, by evaluating the ratio R of the apparent duration of temporal intervals between pairs of isochrones. Except for a very few cases, R ranges between 0.8 and 1.2 corresponding to an uncertainty of up to 20% in the estimate of the time duration in at least one of the two ice cores. At this stage our approach does not allow us unequivocally to find out which of the models is affected by errors, but, taking into account only the historically known volcanic events, we found that discrepancies up to 200 years appears in the last two millennia in the TALDICE-1 model, while our new age scale shows a much better agreement with the volcanic absolute horizons. Thus, we propose for the Talos Dome ice core a new age scale (covering the whole Holocene) obtained by a direct transfer, via our stratigraphic link, from the EDC modelled age scale by Lemieux-Dudon et al. (2010).

Development of an aerobic capacity prediction model from one-mile run/walk performance in adolescents aged 13-16 years.

PubMed

Burns, Ryan D; Hannon, James C; Brusseau, Timothy A; Eisenman, Patricia A; Shultz, Barry B; Saint-Maurice, Pedro F; Welk, Gregory J; Mahar, Matthew T

2016-01-01

A popular algorithm to predict VO2Peak from the one-mile run/walk test (1MRW) includes body mass index (BMI), which manifests practical issues in school settings. The purpose of this study was to develop an aerobic capacity model from 1MRW in adolescents independent of BMI. Cardiorespiratory endurance data were collected on 90 adolescents aged 13-16 years. The 1MRW was administered on an outside track and a laboratory VO2Peak test was conducted using a maximal treadmill protocol. Multiple linear regression was employed to develop the prediction model. Results yielded the following algorithm: VO2Peak = 7.34 × (1MRW speed in m s(-1)) + 0.23 × (age × sex) + 17.75. The New Model displayed a multiple correlation and prediction error of R = 0.81, standard error of the estimate = 4.78 ml kg(-1) · min(-1), with measured VO2Peak and good criterion-referenced (CR) agreement into FITNESSGRAM's Healthy Fitness Zone (Kappa = 0.62; percentage agreement = 84.4%; Φ = 0.62). The New Model was validated using k-fold cross-validation and showed homoscedastic residuals across the range of predicted scores. The omission of BMI did not compromise accuracy of the model. In conclusion, the New Model displayed good predictive accuracy and good CR agreement with measured VO2Peak in adolescents aged 13-16 years.

The history of a continent from U-Pb ages of zircons from Orinoco River sand and Sm-Nd isotopes in Orinoco basin river sediments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Goldstein, S.L.; Arndt, N.T.; Stallard, R.F.

1997-01-01

We report SHRIMP U-Pb ages of 49 zircons from a sand sample from the lower Orinoco River, Venezuela, and Nd model ages of the fine sediment load from the main river and tributaries. The U-Pb ages reflect individual magmatic or metamorphic events, the Sm-Nd model ages reflect average crustal-residence ages of the sediment sources. Together they allow delineation of the crust-formation history of the basement precursors of the sediments. The U-Pb ages range from 2.83 to 0.15 Ga, and most are concordant or nearly so. Discrete age groupings occur at ??? 2.8, ??? 2.1, and ??? 1.1 Ga. The oldest group contains only three samples but is isolated from its closest neighbors by a ??? 600 Ma age gap. Larger age groupings at ??? 2.1 and ??? 1.1 Ga make up about a third and a quarter of the total number of analyses, respectively. The remaining analyses scatter along concordia, and most are younger than 1.6 Ga. The ??? 2.8 and ??? 2.1 Ga ages correspond to periods of crust formation of the Imataca and Trans-Amazonian provinces of the Guyana Shield, respectively, and record intervals of short but intensive continental growth. These ages coincide with ??? 2.9 and ??? 2.1 Ga Nd model ages of sediments from tributaries draining the Archean and Proterozoic provinces of the Guyana Shield, respectively, indicating that the U-Pb ages record the geological history of the crystalline basement of the Orinoco basin. Zircons with ages corresponding to the major orogenies of the North Atlantic continents (the Superior at ??? 2.7 Ga and Hudsonian at 1.7-1.9 Ga) were not found in the Orinoco sample. The age distribution may indicate that South and North America were separated throughout their history. Nd model ages of sediments from the lower Orinoco River and Andean tributaries are ??? 1.9 Ga, broadly within the range displayed by major rivers and dusts. This age does not coincide with known thermal events in the region and reflects mixing of sources with different crust-formation ages. The igneous and metamorphic history of these sources, as recorded by the detrital zircons, is that of the Orinoco basin basement. This implies that, despite evidence of fast sedimentary recycling, global similarities in Nd crustal-residence ages, and the probability of cross-continent mixing through continental drift, the sedimentary material carried by individual rivers is mainly derived from the crystalline basement in the basin. The global semblance in Nd isotope ratios in major river sediments and atmospheric dusts results from the averaging effect of large-scale sampling of the continents, which are heterogeneous in age on smaller regional scales. A large portion of the continental crust in the Orinoco basin formed during the Trans-Amazonian orogeny at 2.0-2.1 Ga, and smaller portions formed both earlier, at ??? 2.8 Ga, and later, after 1.6 Ga. These observations, which are consistent with the relative sizes of crustal age provinces in the Orinoco basin, indicate that sediments from the lower Orinoco and Andean tributaries contain 25-35% of material added to the crust since Trans-Amazonian times. Nd model ages of these sediments underestimate the average crust-formation age of the basement of the Orinoco basin by only about 10%. If this relationship holds in other river basins, then Nd model ages of major rivers and wind blown particulates indicate that the mean age of the continental crust is ??? 1.9-2 Ga. ?? 1997 Elsevier Science B.V.

Evidence for small-scale convection in the Pacific and Atlantic upper mantle from joint analysis of surface wave phase velocity and seafloor bathymetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Z.; Dalton, C. A.

2017-12-01

It has been long observed that the rate of seafloor subsidence in the Pacific Ocean is lower than predicted by half-space cooling at ages older than 70 Myr. The magnitude, geographical distribution, onset time, and physical origin of the flattening are fundamental to our understanding of the evolution of oceanic lithosphere, and give important constraints on the Earth's heat budget and ocean volume throughout its history. However, none of these quantities is well established even after a long history of debates. Here, we present evidence from bathymetry and seismic tomography for the wide-scale operation of small-scale convection in the Pacific and Atlantic upper mantle. We track the temporal evolution of surface wave phase velocity and seafloor topography along age trajectories, which connect each piece of seafloor with the ridge segment that created it. The half-space cooling model (HSCM) and plate cooling model are used to predict the age dependence of phase velocity and bathymetry and to identify, for each age trajectory, the age at which the HSCM fails to explain the observations. The phase velocity and bathymetry are analyzed independently and yet yield identical results for more than 80% of points. We observe a wide range of ages at which the HSCM fails in the Atlantic and a much narrower range in the Pacific. We find that the age at which the HSCM fails is anti-correlated with the present-day depth of the ridge axis, with younger failure ages corresponding to deeper ridge axes and therefore colder mantle beneath the ridge.Such dependence is best explained by the small-scale convection model in which the effective viscosity of the lithosphere is regulated by the dehydration process that happens at the mid-ocean ridges. Decompression melting at a ridge removes water from the mantle and generates a depleted, dehydrated, and viscous layer. Since high mantle potential temperatures cause decompression melting to begin at greater depths, the thickness of the dehydrated layer is expected to scale with potential temperature. Moreover, numerical models have shown that such rheological layering controls the onset time of small-scale convection, with delayed onset for thicker layers. Our results therefore suggest that the stability of oceanic lithosphere is governed by the extent of melting at the ridge that created it.

A Predictive Mathematical Model of Muscle Forces for Children with Cerebral Palsy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, Samuel C. K.; Ding, Jun; Prosser, Laura A.; Wexler, Anthony S.; Binder-Macleod, Stuart A.

2009-01-01

Aim: The purpose of this study was to determine if our previously developed muscle model could be used to predict forces of the quadriceps femoris and triceps surae muscles of children with spastic diplegic cerebral palsy (CP). Method: Twenty-two children with CP (12 males, 10 females; mean age 10y, SD 2y, range 7-13y; Gross Motor Function…

Contemplating the GANE model using an extreme case paradigm.

PubMed

Geva, Ronny

2016-01-01

Early experiences play a crucial role in programming brain function, affecting selective attention, learning, and memory. Infancy literature suggests an extension of the GANE (glutamate amplifies noradrenergic effects) model to conditions with minimal priority-map inputs, yet suggests qualifications by noting that its efficacy is increased when tonic levels of arousal are maintained in an optimal range, in manners that are age and exposure dependent.

A Psychometric Measurement Model for Adult English Language Learners: Pearson Test of English Academic

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pae, Hye K.

2012-01-01

The aim of this study was to apply Rasch modeling to an examination of the psychometric properties of the "Pearson Test of English Academic" (PTE Academic). Analyzed were 140 test-takers' scores derived from the PTE Academic database. The mean age of the participants was 26.45 (SD = 5.82), ranging from 17 to 46. Conformity of the participants'…

An Open Task to Promote Students to Create Statistical Concepts through Modelling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Albarracín, Lluís; Aymerich, Àngels; Gorgorió, Núria

2017-01-01

This article reports on the solutions of a group of 22 students, aged 15/16 years old, when facing a statistical modelling activity. They were given the salary lists of 5 companies and were asked what could be said about their salary structure; no hint was given. The results show that students not only used a wide range of data concepts and…

The Effects of Swedish Knife Model on Students' Understanding of the Digestive System

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cerrah Ozsevgec, Lale; Artun, Huseyin; Unal, Melike

2012-01-01

This study was designed to examine the effect of Swedish Knife Model on students' understanding of digestive system. A simple experimental design (pretest-treatment-posttest) was used in the study and internal comparison of the results of the one group was made. The sample consisted of 40 7th grade Turkish students whose ages range from 13 to 15.…

Personality measures in the National Social Life, Health, and Aging Project.

PubMed

Iveniuk, James; Laumann, Edward O; Waite, Linda J; McClintock, Martha K; Tiedt, Andrew

2014-11-01

Provide recommendations for researchers on the use of the Big Five personality battery in the National Social Life, Health, and Aging Project (NSHAP), and ensure that the battery does proxy the Big Five. Also, describe the levels of Big Five traits across gender and age. We used an Exploratory Structural Equation Model (ESEM) to analyze NHSAP's personality battery, comparing NSHAP with the National Longitudinal Study of Midlife in the United States (MIDUS) and the Health and Retirement Study (HRS). ESEM revealed a 5-factor structure in the NSHAP battery, but with considerable cross-loadings. When these cross-loadings were not included in the model, model fit notably worsened. Reliabilities of Big Five scales were comparable to the HRS and MIDUS, even though NSHAP's battery is shorter. Women were considerably more Agreeable than men, although this gender gap closed among the oldest in the sample (80 years or older). Researchers will be able to make use of NSHAP's personality battery to examine a range of social, biological, and psychological factors at older ages, in light of individuals' general traits. We recommend models which allow for cross-loadings. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Gerontological Society of America 2014.

Constraining the dynamic response of subcontinental lithospheric mantle to rifting using Re-Os model ages in the Western Ross Sea, Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doherty, C.; Class, C.; Goldstein, S. L.; Shirey, S. B.; Martin, A. P.; Cooper, A. F.; Berg, J. H.; Gamble, J. A.

2012-12-01

In order to understand the dynamic response of the subcontinental lithospheric mantle (SCLM) to rifting, it is important to be able to distinguish the geochemical signatures of SCLM vs. asthenosphere. Recent work demonstrates that unradiogenic Os isotope ratios can indicate old depletion events in the convecting upper mantle (e.g. Rudnick & Walker, 2009), and allow us to make these distinctions. Thus, if SCLM can be traced across a rifted margin, its fate during rifting can be established. The Western Ross Sea provides favorable conditions to test the dynamic response of SCLM to rifting. Re-Os measurements from 8 locations extending from the rift shoulder to 200 km into the rift basin reveal 187Os/188Os ranging from 0.1056 at Foster Crater on the shoulder, to 0.1265 on Ross Island within the rift. While individual sample model ages vary widely throughout the margin, 'aluminochron' ages (Reisberg & Lorand, 1995) reveal a narrower range of lithospheric stabilization ages. Franklin Island and Sulfur Cones show a range of Re-depletion ages (603-1522 Ma and 436-1497 Ma) but aluminochrons yield Paleoproterozoic stabilization ages of 1680 Ma and 1789 Ma, respectively. These ages coincide with U-Pb zircon ages from Transantarctic Mountain (TAM) crustal rocks, in support of SCLM stabilization at the time of crust formation along the central TAM. The Paleoproterozoic stabilization age recorded at Franklin Island is especially significant, since it lies 200km off of the rift shoulder. The similar ages beneath the rift shoulder and within the rift suggests stretched SCLM reaches into the rift and thus precludes replacement by asthenospheric mantle. The persistence of thinned Paleoproterozoic SCLM into the rifted zone in WARS suggests that it represents a 'type I' margin of Huismans and Beaumont (2011), which is characterized by crustal breakup before loss of lithospheric mantle. The Archean Re-depletion age of 3.2 Ga observed on the rift shoulder suggests that cratonic lithosphere extends beneath the TAM. With further analyses we hope to determine if there is lateral flow of cratonic lithosphere into the rift. Huismans, R., Beaumount, C., 2011. Depth-dependent extension, two stage breakup and cratonic underplating at rifted margins. Nature 473, 74-78. Reisberg, L.C., Lorand, J.P., 1995. Longevity of sub-continental mantle lithosphere from osmium isotope systematics in orogenic peridotite massifs. Nature 376, 159-162. Rudnick, R.L., Walker, R.J., 2009. Interpreting ages from Re-Os isotopes in peridotites. Lithos 1125, 1083-1095.

Apolipoprotein E genotype does not moderate the associations of depressive symptoms, neuroticism and allostatic load with cognitive ability and cognitive aging in the Lothian Birth Cohort 1936.

PubMed

Crook, Zander; Booth, Tom; Cox, Simon R; Corley, Janie; Dykiert, Dominika; Redmond, Paul; Pattie, Alison; Taylor, Adele M; Harris, Sarah E; Starr, John M; Deary, Ian J

2018-01-01

In this replication-and-extension study, we tested whether depressive symptoms, neuroticism, and allostatic load (multisystem physiological dysregulation) were related to lower baseline cognitive ability and greater subsequent cognitive decline in older adults, and whether these relationships were moderated by the E4 allele of the apolipoprotein E (APOE) gene. We also tested whether allostatic load mediated the relationships between neuroticism and cognitive outcomes. We used data from the Lothian Birth Cohort 1936 (n at Waves 1-3: 1,028 [M age = 69.5 y]; 820 [M duration since Wave 1 = 2.98 y]; 659 [M duration since Wave 1 = 6.74 y]). We fitted latent growth curve models of general cognitive ability (modeled using five cognitive tests) with groups of APOE E4 non-carriers and carriers. In separate models, depressive symptoms, neuroticism, and allostatic load predicted baseline cognitive ability and subsequent cognitive decline. In addition, models tested whether allostatic load mediated relationships between neuroticism and cognitive outcomes. Baseline cognitive ability had small-to-moderate negative associations with depressive symptoms (β range = -0.20 to -0.17), neuroticism (β range = -0.27 to -0.23), and allostatic load (β range = -0.11 to 0.09). Greater cognitive decline was linked to baseline allostatic load (β range = -0.98 to -0.83) and depressive symptoms (β range = -1.00 to -0.88). However, APOE E4 allele possession did not moderate the relationships of depressive symptoms, neuroticism and allostatic load with cognitive ability and cognitive decline. Additionally, the associations of neuroticism with cognitive ability and cognitive decline were not mediated through allostatic load. Our results suggest that APOE E4 status does not moderate the relationships of depressive symptoms, neuroticism, and allostatic load with cognitive ability and cognitive decline in healthy older adults. The most notable positive finding in the current research was the strong association between allostatic load and cognitive decline.

Advanced glycation end-products: Mechanics of aged collagen from molecule to tissue.

PubMed

Gautieri, Alfonso; Passini, Fabian S; Silván, Unai; Guizar-Sicairos, Manuel; Carimati, Giulia; Volpi, Piero; Moretti, Matteo; Schoenhuber, Herbert; Redaelli, Alberto; Berli, Martin; Snedeker, Jess G

2017-05-01

Concurrent with a progressive loss of regenerative capacity, connective tissue aging is characterized by a progressive accumulation of Advanced Glycation End-products (AGEs). Besides being part of the typical aging process, type II diabetics are particularly affected by AGE accumulation due to abnormally high levels of systemic glucose that increases the glycation rate of long-lived proteins such as collagen. Although AGEs are associated with a wide range of clinical disorders, the mechanisms by which AGEs contribute to connective tissue disease in aging and diabetes are still poorly understood. The present study harnesses advanced multiscale imaging techniques to characterize a widely employed in vitro model of ribose induced collagen aging and further benchmarks these data against experiments on native human tissues from donors of different age. These efforts yield unprecedented insight into the mechanical changes in collagen tissues across hierarchical scales from molecular, to fiber, to tissue-levels. We observed a linear increase in molecular spacing (from 1.45nm to 1.5nm) and a decrease in the D-period length (from 67.5nm to 67.1nm) in aged tissues, both using the ribose model of in vitro glycation and in native human probes. Multiscale mechanical analysis of in vitro glycated tendons strongly suggests that AGEs reduce tissue viscoelasticity by severely limiting fiber-fiber and fibril-fibril sliding. This study lays an important foundation for interpreting the functional and biological effects of AGEs in collagen connective tissues, by exploiting experimental models of AGEs crosslinking and benchmarking them for the first time against endogenous AGEs in native tissue. Copyright © 2016 International Society of Matrix Biology. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Forensic individual age estimation with DNA: From initial approaches to methylation tests.

PubMed

Freire-Aradas, A; Phillips, C; Lareu, M V

2017-07-01

Individual age estimation is a key factor in forensic science analysis that can provide very useful information applicable to criminal, legal, and anthropological investigations. Forensic age inference was initially based on morphological inspection or radiography and only later began to adopt molecular approaches. However, a lack of accuracy or technical problems hampered the introduction of these DNA-based methodologies in casework analysis. A turning point occurred when the epigenetic signature of DNA methylation was observed to gradually change during an individual´s lifespan. In the last four years, the number of publications reporting DNA methylation age-correlated changes has gradually risen and the forensic community now has a range of age methylation tests applicable to forensic casework. Most forensic age predictor models have been developed based on blood DNA samples, but additional tissues are now also being explored. This review assesses the most widely adopted genes harboring methylation sites, detection technologies, statistical age-predictive analyses, and potential causes of variation in age estimates. Despite the need for further work to improve predictive accuracy and establishing a broader range of tissues for which tests can analyze the most appropriate methylation sites, several forensic age predictors have now been reported that provide consistency in their prediction accuracies (predictive error of ±4 years); this makes them compelling tools with the potential to contribute key information to help guide criminal investigations. Copyright © 2017 Central Police University.

Random regression analyses using B-splines to model growth of Australian Angus cattle

PubMed Central

Meyer, Karin

2005-01-01

Regression on the basis function of B-splines has been advocated as an alternative to orthogonal polynomials in random regression analyses. Basic theory of splines in mixed model analyses is reviewed, and estimates from analyses of weights of Australian Angus cattle from birth to 820 days of age are presented. Data comprised 84 533 records on 20 731 animals in 43 herds, with a high proportion of animals with 4 or more weights recorded. Changes in weights with age were modelled through B-splines of age at recording. A total of thirteen analyses, considering different combinations of linear, quadratic and cubic B-splines and up to six knots, were carried out. Results showed good agreement for all ages with many records, but fluctuated where data were sparse. On the whole, analyses using B-splines appeared more robust against "end-of-range" problems and yielded more consistent and accurate estimates of the first eigenfunctions than previous, polynomial analyses. A model fitting quadratic B-splines, with knots at 0, 200, 400, 600 and 821 days and a total of 91 covariance components, appeared to be a good compromise between detailedness of the model, number of parameters to be estimated, plausibility of results, and fit, measured as residual mean square error. PMID:16093011

Are Ferroan Anorthosites Direct Products of the Lunar Magma Ocean?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Neal, C. R.; Draper, D. S.

2016-01-01

According to Lunar Magma Ocean (LMO) theory, lunar samples that fall into the ferroan anorthosite (FAN) category represent the only samples we have of of the primordial crust of the Moon. Modeling indicates that plagioclase crystallizes after >70% LMO crystallization and formed a flotation crust, depending upon starting composition. The FAN group of highlands materials has been subdivided into mafic-magnesian, mafic-ferroan, anorthositic- sodic, and anorthositic-ferroan, although it is not clear how these subgroups are related. Recent radiogenic isotope work has suggested the range in FAN ages and isotopic systematics are inconsistent with formation of all FANs from the LMO. While an insulating lid could have theoretically extend the life of the LMO to explain the range of the published ages, are the FAN compositions consistent with crystallization from the LMO? As part of a funded Emerging Worlds proposal (NNX15AH76G), we examine this question through analysis of FAN samples. We compare the results with various LMO crystallization models, including those that incorporate the influence of garnet.

Eleventh interim status report: Model 9975 O-Ring fixture long-term leak performance

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Daugherty, W.

2016-08-01

A series of experiments to monitor the aging performance of Viton® GLT O-rings used in the Model 9975 package has been ongoing since 2004 at the Savannah River National Laboratory. One approach has been to periodically evaluate the leak performance of O-rings being aged in mock-up 9975 Primary Containment Vessels (PCVs) at elevated temperature. Other methods such as compression-stress relaxation (CSR) tests and field surveillance are also on-going to evaluate O-ring behavior. Seventy tests using PCV mock-ups were assembled and heated to temperatures ranging from 200 to 450 ºF. They were leak-tested initially and have been tested periodically to determinemore » if they continue to meet the leak-tightness criterion defined in ANSI standard N14.5-97. Due to material substitution, fourteen additional tests were initiated in 2008 with GLT-S O-rings heated to temperatures ranging from 200 to 400 ºF.« less

Tenth interim status report: Model 9975 O-ring fixture long-term leak performance

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Daugherty, W. L.

2015-08-26

A series of experiments to monitor the aging performance of Viton ® GLT O-rings used in the Model 9975 package has been ongoing since 2004 at the Savannah River National Laboratory. One approach has been to periodically evaluate the leak performance of O-rings being aged in mock-up 9975 Primary Containment Vessels (PCVs) at elevated temperatures. Other methods such as compression-stress relaxation (CSR) tests and field surveillance are also on-going to evaluate O-ring behavior. Seventy tests using PCV mock-ups were assembled and heated to temperatures ranging from 200 to 450 °F. They were leak-tested initially and have been tested periodically tomore » determine if they continue to meet the leak-tightness criterion defined in ANSI standard N14.5-97. Due to material substitution, fourteen additional tests were initiated in 2008 with GLT-S O-rings heated to temperatures ranging from 200 to 400 °F.« less

Improving Risk Adjustment for Mortality After Pediatric Cardiac Surgery: The UK PRAiS2 Model.

PubMed

Rogers, Libby; Brown, Katherine L; Franklin, Rodney C; Ambler, Gareth; Anderson, David; Barron, David J; Crowe, Sonya; English, Kate; Stickley, John; Tibby, Shane; Tsang, Victor; Utley, Martin; Witter, Thomas; Pagel, Christina

2017-07-01

Partial Risk Adjustment in Surgery (PRAiS), a risk model for 30-day mortality after children's heart surgery, has been used by the UK National Congenital Heart Disease Audit to report expected risk-adjusted survival since 2013. This study aimed to improve the model by incorporating additional comorbidity and diagnostic information. The model development dataset was all procedures performed between 2009 and 2014 in all UK and Ireland congenital cardiac centers. The outcome measure was death within each 30-day surgical episode. Model development followed an iterative process of clinical discussion and development and assessment of models using logistic regression under 25 × 5 cross-validation. Performance was measured using Akaike information criterion, the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC), and calibration. The final model was assessed in an external 2014 to 2015 validation dataset. The development dataset comprised 21,838 30-day surgical episodes, with 539 deaths (mortality, 2.5%). The validation dataset comprised 4,207 episodes, with 97 deaths (mortality, 2.3%). The updated risk model included 15 procedural, 11 diagnostic, and 4 comorbidity groupings, and nonlinear functions of age and weight. Performance under cross-validation was: median AUC of 0.83 (range, 0.82 to 0.83), median calibration slope and intercept of 0.92 (range, 0.64 to 1.25) and -0.23 (range, -1.08 to 0.85) respectively. In the validation dataset, the AUC was 0.86 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.82 to 0.89), and the calibration slope and intercept were 1.01 (95% CI, 0.83 to 1.18) and 0.11 (95% CI, -0.45 to 0.67), respectively, showing excellent performance. A more sophisticated PRAiS2 risk model for UK use was developed with additional comorbidity and diagnostic information, alongside age and weight as nonlinear variables. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

VAT=TAAT-SAAT: innovative anthropometric model to predict visceral adipose tissue without resort to CT-Scan or DXA.

PubMed

Samouda, Hanen; Dutour, Anne; Chaumoitre, Kathia; Panuel, Michel; Dutour, Olivier; Dadoun, Frédéric

2013-01-01

To investigate whether a combination of a selected but limited number of anthropometric measurements predicts visceral adipose tissue (VAT) better than other anthropometric measurements, without resort to medical imaging. Abdominal anthropometric measurements are total abdominal adipose tissue indicators and global measures of VAT and SAAT (subcutaneous abdominal adipose tissue). Therefore, subtracting the anthropometric measurement the more correlated possible with SAAT while being the least correlated possible with VAT, from the most correlated abdominal anthropometric measurement with VAT while being highly correlated with TAAT, may better predict VAT. BMI participants' range was from 16.3 to 52.9 kg m(-2) . Anthropometric and abdominal adipose tissues data by computed tomography (CT-Scan) were available in 253 patients (18-78 years) (CHU Nord, Marseille) and used to develop the anthropometric VAT prediction models. Subtraction of proximal thigh circumference from waist circumference, adjusted to age and/or BMI, predicts better VAT (Women: VAT = 2.15 × Waist C - 3.63 × Proximal Thigh C + 1.46 × Age + 6.22 × BMI - 92.713; R(2) = 0.836. Men: VAT = 6 × Waist C - 4.41 × proximal thigh C + 1.19 × Age - 213.65; R(2) = 0.803) than the best single anthropometric measurement or the association of two anthropometric measurements highly correlated with VAT. Both multivariate models showed no collinearity problem. Selected models demonstrate high sensitivity (97.7% in women, 100% in men). Similar predictive abilities were observed in the validation sample (Women: R(2) = 76%; Men: R(2) = 70%). Bland and Altman method showed no systematic estimation error of VAT. Validated in a large range of age and BMI, our results suggest the usefulness of the anthropometric selected models to predict VAT in Europides (South of France). Copyright © 2013 The Obesity Society.

VAT=TAAT-SAAT: Innovative Anthropometric Model to Predict Visceral Adipose Tissue Without Resort to CT-Scan or DXA

PubMed Central

Samouda, Hanen; Dutour, Anne; Chaumoitre, Kathia; Panuel, Michel; Dutour, Olivier; Dadoun, Frédéric

2013-01-01

Objective To investigate whether a combination of a selected but limited number of anthropometric measurements predicts visceral adipose tissue (VAT) better than other anthropometric measurements, without resort to medical imaging. Hypothesis Abdominal anthropometric measurements are total abdominal adipose tissue indicators and global measures of VAT and SAAT (subcutaneous abdominal adipose tissue). Therefore, subtracting the anthropometric measurement the more correlated possible with SAAT while being the least correlated possible with VAT, from the most correlated abdominal anthropometric measurement with VAT while being highly correlated with TAAT, may better predict VAT. Design and Methods BMI participants' range was from 16.3 to 52.9 kg m−2. Anthropometric and abdominal adipose tissues data by computed tomography (CT-Scan) were available in 253 patients (18-78 years) (CHU Nord, Marseille) and used to develop the anthropometric VAT prediction models. Results Subtraction of proximal thigh circumference from waist circumference, adjusted to age and/or BMI, predicts better VAT (Women: VAT = 2.15 × Waist C − 3.63 × Proximal Thigh C + 1.46 × Age + 6.22 × BMI − 92.713; R2 = 0.836. Men: VAT = 6 × Waist C − 4.41 × proximal thigh C + 1.19 × Age − 213.65; R2 = 0.803) than the best single anthropometric measurement or the association of two anthropometric measurements highly correlated with VAT. Both multivariate models showed no collinearity problem. Selected models demonstrate high sensitivity (97.7% in women, 100% in men). Similar predictive abilities were observed in the validation sample (Women: R2 = 76%; Men: R2 = 70%). Bland and Altman method showed no systematic estimation error of VAT. Conclusion Validated in a large range of age and BMI, our results suggest the usefulness of the anthropometric selected models to predict VAT in Europides (South of France). PMID:23404678

The aging motor system as a model for plastic changes of GABA-mediated intracortical inhibition and their behavioral relevance.

PubMed

Heise, Kirstin-F; Zimerman, Maximo; Hoppe, Julia; Gerloff, Christian; Wegscheider, Karl; Hummel, Friedhelm C

2013-05-22

Since GABAA-mediated intracortical inhibition has been shown to underlie plastic changes throughout the lifespan from development to aging, here, the aging motor system was used as a model to analyze the interdependence of plastic alterations within the inhibitory motorcortical network and level of behavioral performance. Double-pulse transcranial magnetic stimulation (dpTMS) was used to examine inhibition by means of short-interval intracortical inhibition (SICI) of the contralateral primary motor cortex in a sample of 64 healthy right-handed human subjects covering a wide range of the adult lifespan (age range 20-88 years, mean 47.6 ± 20.7, 34 female). SICI was evaluated during resting state and in an event-related condition during movement preparation in a visually triggered simple reaction time task. In a subgroup (N = 23), manual motor performance was tested with tasks of graded dexterous demand. Weak resting-state inhibition was associated with an overall lower manual motor performance. Better event-related modulation of inhibition correlated with better performance in more demanding tasks, in which fast alternating activation of cortical representations are necessary. Declining resting-state inhibition was associated with weakened event-related modulation of inhibition. Therefore, reduced resting-state inhibition might lead to a subsequent loss of modulatory capacity, possibly reflecting malfunctioning precision in GABAAergic neurotransmission; the consequence is an inevitable decline in motor function.

Deciphering death: a commentary on Gompertz (1825) ‘On the nature of the function expressive of the law of human mortality, and on a new mode of determining the value of life contingencies’

PubMed Central

Kirkwood, Thomas B. L.

2015-01-01

In 1825, the actuary Benjamin Gompertz read a paper, ‘On the nature of the function expressive of the law of human mortality, and on a new mode of determining the value of life contingencies’, to the Royal Society in which he showed that over much of the adult human lifespan, age-specific mortality rates increased in an exponential manner. Gompertz's work played an important role in shaping the emerging statistical science that underpins the pricing of life insurance and annuities. Latterly, as the subject of ageing itself became the focus of scientific study, the Gompertz model provided a powerful stimulus to examine the patterns of death across the life course not only in humans but also in a wide range of other organisms. The idea that the Gompertz model might constitute a fundamental ‘law of mortality’ has given way to the recognition that other patterns exist, not only across the species range but also in advanced old age. Nevertheless, Gompertz's way of representing the function expressive of the pattern of much of adult mortality retains considerable relevance for studying the factors that influence the intrinsic biology of ageing. This commentary was written to celebrate the 350th anniversary of the journal Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society. PMID:25750242

Deciphering death: a commentary on Gompertz (1825) 'On the nature of the function expressive of the law of human mortality, and on a new mode of determining the value of life contingencies'.

PubMed

Kirkwood, Thomas B L

2015-04-19

In 1825, the actuary Benjamin Gompertz read a paper, 'On the nature of the function expressive of the law of human mortality, and on a new mode of determining the value of life contingencies', to the Royal Society in which he showed that over much of the adult human lifespan, age-specific mortality rates increased in an exponential manner. Gompertz's work played an important role in shaping the emerging statistical science that underpins the pricing of life insurance and annuities. Latterly, as the subject of ageing itself became the focus of scientific study, the Gompertz model provided a powerful stimulus to examine the patterns of death across the life course not only in humans but also in a wide range of other organisms. The idea that the Gompertz model might constitute a fundamental 'law of mortality' has given way to the recognition that other patterns exist, not only across the species range but also in advanced old age. Nevertheless, Gompertz's way of representing the function expressive of the pattern of much of adult mortality retains considerable relevance for studying the factors that influence the intrinsic biology of ageing. This commentary was written to celebrate the 350th anniversary of the journal Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society.

Human dental age estimation combining third molar(s) development and tooth morphological age predictors.

PubMed

Thevissen, P W; Galiti, D; Willems, G

2012-11-01

In the subadult age group, third molar development, as well as age-related morphological tooth information can be observed on panoramic radiographs. The aim of present study was to combine, in subadults, panoramic radiographic data based on developmental stages of third molar(s) and morphological measurements from permanent teeth, in order to evaluate its added age-predicting performances. In the age range between 15 and 23 years, 25 gender-specific radiographs were collected within each age category of 1 year. Third molar development was classified and registered according the 10-point staging and scoring technique proposed by Gleiser and Hunt (1955), modified by Köhler (1994). The Kvaal (1995) measuring technique was applied on the indicated teeth from the individuals' left side. Linear regression models with age as response and third molar-scored stages as explanatory variables were developed, and morphological measurements from permanent teeth were added. From the models, determination coefficients (R (2)) and root-mean-square errors (RMSE) were calculated. Maximal-added age information was reported as a 6 % R² increase and a 0.10-year decrease of RMSE. Forensic dental age estimations on panoramic radiographic data in the subadult group (15-23 year) should only be based on third molar development.

Genotype by environment interaction for stayability of Red Angus in the United States.

PubMed

Fennewald, Dennis J; Weaber, Robert L; Lamberson, William R

2018-03-06

Bulls are used across a wide variety of environments through the use of artificial insemination. However, not all bulls rank the same for genetic merit in all environments. Sire selection could be more accurate via improved methods of characterization. The objective of this study was to evaluate the presence of genotype by environment (GxE) interaction for stayability in Red Angus in the United States. Environments were defined as nine regions within the continental United States with similar temperature-humidity indices. Stayability was defined as having a calf at age 4 given that the cow had a calf at age 2. A probit sire model was used to determine the heritability on the underlying scale. The percentage of females that calved at age 2 that also calved at age 4 ranged from 32.9 to 58.5% across regions and was 55.0% for the national data set. The heritability of stayability ranged from 0.10 to 0.57 across regions and was 0.12 for the national data set. Genetic correlations were estimated for stayability between all pairs of regions. An estimate of less than 0.80 indicates GxE at a level for concern. Genetic correlations between regions ranged from 0.32 to 0.87 and were <0.80 for 29 of 36 region pairs.

Filling in the gaps: estimating numbers of chlamydia tests and diagnoses by age group and sex before and during the implementation of the English National Screening Programme, 2000 to 2012.

PubMed

Chandra, Nastassya L; Soldan, Kate; Dangerfield, Ciara; Sile, Bersabeh; Duffell, Stephen; Talebi, Alireza; Choi, Yoon H; Hughes, Gwenda; Woodhall, Sarah C

2017-02-02

To inform mathematical modelling of the impact of chlamydia screening in England since 2000, a complete picture of chlamydia testing is needed. Monitoring and surveillance systems evolved between 2000 and 2012. Since 2012, data on publicly funded chlamydia tests and diagnoses have been collected nationally. However, gaps exist for earlier years. We collated available data on chlamydia testing and diagnosis rates among 15-44-year-olds by sex and age group for 2000-2012. Where data were unavailable, we applied data- and evidence-based assumptions to construct plausible minimum and maximum estimates and set bounds on uncertainty. There was a large range between estimates in years when datasets were less comprehensive (2000-2008); smaller ranges were seen hereafter. In 15-19-year-old women in 2000, the estimated diagnosis rate ranged between 891 and 2,489 diagnoses per 100,000 persons. Testing and diagnosis rates increased between 2000 and 2012 in women and men across all age groups using minimum or maximum estimates, with greatest increases seen among 15-24-year-olds. Our dataset can be used to parameterise and validate mathematical models and serve as a reference dataset to which trends in chlamydia-related complications can be compared. Our analysis highlights the complexities of combining monitoring and surveillance datasets. This article is copyright of The Authors, 2017.

TracerLPM (Version 1): An Excel® workbook for interpreting groundwater age distributions from environmental tracer data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jurgens, Bryant C.; Böhlke, J.K.; Eberts, Sandra M.

2012-01-01

TracerLPM is an interactive Excel® (2007 or later) workbook program for evaluating groundwater age distributions from environmental tracer data by using lumped parameter models (LPMs). Lumped parameter models are mathematical models of transport based on simplified aquifer geometry and flow configurations that account for effects of hydrodynamic dispersion or mixing within the aquifer, well bore, or discharge area. Five primary LPMs are included in the workbook: piston-flow model (PFM), exponential mixing model (EMM), exponential piston-flow model (EPM), partial exponential model (PEM), and dispersion model (DM). Binary mixing models (BMM) can be created by combining primary LPMs in various combinations. Travel time through the unsaturated zone can be included as an additional parameter. TracerLPM also allows users to enter age distributions determined from other methods, such as particle tracking results from numerical groundwater-flow models or from other LPMs not included in this program. Tracers of both young groundwater (anthropogenic atmospheric gases and isotopic substances indicating post-1940s recharge) and much older groundwater (carbon-14 and helium-4) can be interpreted simultaneously so that estimates of the groundwater age distribution for samples with a wide range of ages can be constrained. TracerLPM is organized to permit a comprehensive interpretive approach consisting of hydrogeologic conceptualization, visual examination of data and models, and best-fit parameter estimation. Groundwater age distributions can be evaluated by comparing measured and modeled tracer concentrations in two ways: (1) multiple tracers analyzed simultaneously can be evaluated against each other for concordance with modeled concentrations (tracer-tracer application) or (2) tracer time-series data can be evaluated for concordance with modeled trends (tracer-time application). Groundwater-age estimates can also be obtained for samples with a single tracer measurement at one point in time; however, prior knowledge of an appropriate LPM is required because the mean age is often non-unique. LPM output concentrations depend on model parameters and sample date. All of the LPMs have a parameter for mean age. The EPM, PEM, and DM have an additional parameter that characterizes the degree of age mixing in the sample. BMMs have a parameter for the fraction of the first component in the mixture. An LPM, together with its parameter values, provides a description of the age distribution or the fractional contribution of water for every age of recharge contained within a sample. For the PFM, the age distribution is a unit pulse at one distinct age. For the other LPMs, the age distribution can be much broader and span decades, centuries, millennia, or more. For a sample with a mixture of groundwater ages, the reported interpretation of tracer data includes the LPM name, the mean age, and the values of any other independent model parameters. TracerLPM also can be used for simulating the responses of wells, springs, streams, or other groundwater discharge receptors to nonpoint-source contaminants that are introduced in recharge, such as nitrate. This is done by combining an LPM or user-defined age distribution with information on contaminant loading at the water table. Information on historic contaminant loading can be used to help evaluate a model's ability to match real world conditions and understand observed contaminant trends, while information on future contaminant loading scenarios can be used to forecast potential contaminant trends.

A national scale estimation of soil carbon stocks of Pinus densiflora forests in Korea: a modelling approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yi, K.; Park, C.; Ryu, S.; Lee, K.; Yi, M.; Kim, C.; Park, G.; Kim, R.; Son, Y.

2011-12-01

Soil carbon (C) stocks of Pinus densiflora forests in Korea were estimated using a generic forest soil C dynamics model based on the process of dead organic matter input and decomposition. Annual input of dead organic matter to the soil was determined by stand biomass and turnover rates of tree components (stem, branch, twig, foliage, coarse root, and fine root). The model was designed to have a simplified structure consisting of three dead organic matter C (DOC) pools (aboveground woody debris (AWD), belowground woody debris (BWD), and litter (LTR) pool) and one soil organic C (SOC) pool. C flows in the model were regulated by six turnover rates of stem, branch, twig, foliage, coarse root, and fine root, and four decay rates of AWD, BWD, LTR, and SOC. To simulate the soil C stocks of P. densiflora forests, statistical data of forest land area (1,339,791 ha) and growing stock (191,896,089 m3) sorted by region (nine provinces and seven metropolitan cities) and stand age class (11 to 20- (II), 21 to 30- (III), 31 to 40- (IV), 41 to 50- (V), and 51 to 60-year-old (VI)) were used. The growing stock of each stand age class was calculated for every region and representable site index was also determined by consulting the yield table. Other model parameters related to the stand biomass, annual input of dead organic matter and decomposition were estimated from previous studies conducted on P. densiflora forests in Korea, which were also applied for model validation. As a result of simulation, total soil C stock of P. densiflora forests were estimated as 53.9 MtC and soil C stocks per unit area ranged from 28.71 to 47.81 tC ha-1 within the soil depth of 30 cm. Also, soil C stocks in the P. densiflora forests of age class II, III, IV, V, and VI were 16,780,818, 21,450,812, 12,677,872, 2,366,939, and 578,623 tC, respectively, and highly related to the distribution of age classes. Soil C stocks per unit area initially decreased with stand age class and started to increase after the stand age class of V. Regional soil C stocks ranged from 9,805 to 15,595,802 tC, and were generally proportional to the forest land area. Our results suggest an approach to estimate soil C stock on a national scale by using a computer model and manipulating the existing statistical data.

The formation and rejuvenation of continental crust in the central North China Craton: Evidence from zircon U-Pb geochronology and Hf isotope

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Qing; Santosh, M.; Li, Sheng-Rong; Guo, Pu

2014-12-01

The Trans-North China Orogen (TNCO) along the central part of the North China Craton (NCC) is considered as a Paleoproterozoic suture along which the Eastern and Western Blocks of the NCC were amalgamated. Here we investigate the Precambrian crustal evolution history in the Fuping segment of the TNCO and the subsequent reactivation associated with extensive craton destruction during Mesozoic. We present zircon LA-ICP-MS U-Pb and Lu-Hf data on TTG (tonalite-trondhjemite-granodiorite) gneiss, felsic orthogneiss, amphibolite and granite from the Paleoproterozoic suite which show magmatic ages in the range of 2450-1900 Ma suggesting a long-lived convergent margin. The εHf(t) values of these zircons range from -11.9 to 12 and their model ages suggest magma derivation from both juvenile components and reworked Archean crust. The Mesozoic magmatic units in the Fuping area includes granite, diorite and mafic microgranular enclaves, the zircons from which define a tight range of 120-130 Ma ages suggesting a prominent Early Cretaceous magmatic event. However, the εHf(t) values of these zircons show wide a range from -30.3 to 0.2, indicating that the magmatic activity involved extensive rejuvenation of the older continental crust.

Age-resolved chemistry of red giants in the solar neighbourhood

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feuillet, Diane K.; Bovy, Jo; Holtzman, Jon; Weinberg, David H.; García-Hernández, D.; Hearty, Fred R.; Majewski, Steven R.; Roman-Lopes, Alexandre; Rybizki, Jan; Zamora, Olga

2018-06-01

In the age of high-resolution spectroscopic stellar surveys of the Milky Way, the number of stars with detailed abundances of multiple elements is rapidly increasing. These elemental abundances are directly influenced by the evolutionary history of the Galaxy, but this can be difficult to interpret without an absolute timeline of the abundance enrichment. We present age-abundance trends for [M/H], [α/M], and 17 individual elements using a sample of 721 solar neighbourhood Hipparcos red giant stars observed by Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment. These age trends are determined through a Bayesian hierarchical modelling method presented by Feuillet et al. We confirm that the [α/M]-age relation in the solar neighbourhood is steep and relatively narrow (0.20 dex age dispersion), as are the [O/M]-age and [Mg/M]-age relations. The age trend of [C/N] is steep and smooth, consistent with stellar evolution. The [M/H]-age relation has a mean age dispersion of 0.28 dex and a complex overall structure. The oldest stars in our sample are those with the lowest and highest metallicities, while the youngest stars are those with solar metallicity. These results provide strong constraints on theoretical models of Galactic chemical evolution (GCE). We compare them to the predictions of one-zone GCE models and multizone mixtures, both analytic and numerical. These comparisons support the hypothesis that the solar neighbourhood is composed of stars born at a range of Galactocentric radii, and that the most metal-rich stars likely migrated from a region with earlier and more rapid star formation such as the inner Galaxy.

Core overshoot and convection in δ Scuti and γ Doradus stars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lovekin, Catherine; Guzik, Joyce A.

2017-09-01

The effects of rotation on pulsation in δ Scuti and γ Doradus stars are poorly understood. Stars in this mass range span the transition from convective envelopes to convective cores, and realistic models of convection are thus a key part of understanding these stars. In this work, we use 2D asteroseismic modelling of 5 stars observed with the Kepler spacecraft to provide constraints on the age, mass, rotation rate, and convective core overshoot. We use Period04 to calculate the frequencies based on short cadence Kepler observations of five γ Doradus and δ Scuti stars. We fit these stars with rotating models calculated using MESA and adiabatic pulsation frequencies calculated with GYRE. Comparison of these models with the pulsation frequencies of three stars observed with Kepler allowed us to place constraints on the age, mass, and rotation rate of these stars. All frequencies not identified as possible combinations were compared to theoretical frequencies calculated using models including the effects of rotation and overshoot. The best fitting models for all five stars are slowly rotating at the best fitting age and have moderate convective core overshoot. In this work, we will discuss the results of the frequency extraction and fitting process.

Gestational age-dependent risk factors for preterm birth: associations with maternal education and age early in gestation.

PubMed

Auger, Nathalie; Abrahamowicz, Michal; Wynant, Willy; Lo, Ernest

2014-05-01

Preterm birth (PTB) before 37 weeks can occur over a wide range of gestational ages, but few studies have assessed if associations between risk factors and PTB vary over the duration of gestation. We sought to evaluate if associations between two major risk factors (maternal education and age) and PTB depend on gestational age at delivery. We estimated hazard ratios of PTB for education and age in a time-to-event analysis using a retrospective cohort of 223,756 live singleton births from the province of Québec, Canada for the years 2001-2005. Differences in hazards of maternal education and age with PTB were assessed over gestational age in a Cox proportional hazards model using linear and nonlinear time interaction terms, adjusting for maternal characteristics. Associations of PTB with lower (vs. higher) education and older (vs. younger) age strengthened progressively at earlier gestational ages, such that the risk of PTB for maternal education and age was not constant over the course of gestation. Associations of PTB with risk factors such as maternal low education and older age may be stronger early in gestation. Models that capture the time-dependent nature of PTB may be useful when the goal is to assess associations at low gestational ages, and to avoid masked or biased associations early in gestation. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Isolation and identification of age-related DNA methylation markers for forensic age-prediction.

PubMed

Yi, Shao Hua; Xu, Long Chang; Mei, Kun; Yang, Rong Zhi; Huang, Dai Xin

2014-07-01

Age-prediction is an important part of forensic science. There is no available method of individual age-prediction for general forensic biological samples at crime scenes. Accumulating evidence indicates that aging resembles a developmentally regulated process tightly controlled by specific age-associated methylation exists in human genome. This study isolated and identified eight gene fragments in which the degree of cytosine methylation is significantly correlated with age in blood of 40 donors. Furthermore, we validated two CpG sites of each gene fragment and replicated our results in a general population sample of 40 males and 25 females with a wide age-range (11-72 years). The methylation of these fragments is linear with age over a range of six decades (Fragment P1 (r=-0.64), P2 (r=-0.58), P3 (r=-0.79), R1 (r=0.82), R2 (r=0.63), R3 (r=0.59), R4 (r=0.63) and R5 (r=0.62)). Using average methylation of two CpG sites from each fragment, we built a regression model that explained 95% of the variance in age and is able to predict the age of an individual with great accuracy (R(2)=0.918). The predicted values are highly correlated with the observed age in the sample (r=0.91). This study implicates that DNA methylation will be an available biological marker of age-prediction. Furthermore, measurement of relevant sites in the genome could be a tool in routine forensic screening to predict age of biological samples. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Influence of Smallmouth Bass predation on recruitment of age-0 Yellow Perch in South Dakota glacial lakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dembkowski, Daniel J.; Willis, D.W.; Blackwell, B. G.; Chipps, Steven R.; Bacula, T. D.; Wuellner, M.R.

2015-01-01

We estimated the influence of predation by Smallmouth Bass Micropterus dolomieu on recruitment of age-0 Yellow Perch Perca flavescens in two northeastern South Dakota glacial lakes. We estimated a likely range in consumption of age-0 Yellow Perch using Smallmouth Bass diet information from two time periods when age-0 Yellow Perch constituted high (2008) and low (2012 and 2013) proportions of Smallmouth Bass diets, and bass population size estimates as inputs in a bioenergetics model. The proportion of age-0 Yellow Perch consumed by the Smallmouth Bass populations was determined by comparing estimates of consumption with estimates of age-0 perch production. During 2008, age-0 Yellow Perch constituted between 0% and 42% of Smallmouth Bass diets by weight, whereas during 2012 and 2013, age-0 perch constituted between 0% and 20% of bass diets by weight. Across both lakes and time periods, production of age-0 Yellow Perch ranged from 0.32 to 1.78 kg·ha−1·week−1. Estimates of Smallmouth Bass consumption measured during the same intervals ranged from 0.06 to 0.33 kg·ha−1·week−1, equating to consumption of between 1% and 34% of the available Yellow Perch biomass. Given current conditions relative to Smallmouth Bass abundance and consumption dynamics and production of age-0 Yellow Perch, it does not appear that Smallmouth Bass predation acts as a singular factor limiting recruitment of age-0 Yellow Perch in our study lakes. However, future research and management initiatives should recognize that the long-term impact of Smallmouth Bass predation is not static and will likely fluctuate depending on environmental (e.g., temperature) and biotic (e.g., trends in macrophyte abundance, predator and prey population structure and abundance, and predatory fish assemblage dynamics) characteristics.

An age-structured extension to the vectorial capacity model.

PubMed

Novoseltsev, Vasiliy N; Michalski, Anatoli I; Novoseltseva, Janna A; Yashin, Anatoliy I; Carey, James R; Ellis, Alicia M

2012-01-01

Vectorial capacity and the basic reproductive number (R(0)) have been instrumental in structuring thinking about vector-borne pathogen transmission and how best to prevent the diseases they cause. One of the more important simplifying assumptions of these models is age-independent vector mortality. A growing body of evidence indicates that insect vectors exhibit age-dependent mortality, which can have strong and varied affects on pathogen transmission dynamics and strategies for disease prevention. Based on survival analysis we derived new equations for vectorial capacity and R(0) that are valid for any pattern of age-dependent (or age-independent) vector mortality and explore the behavior of the models across various mortality patterns. The framework we present (1) lays the groundwork for an extension and refinement of the vectorial capacity paradigm by introducing an age-structured extension to the model, (2) encourages further research on the actuarial dynamics of vectors in particular and the relationship of vector mortality to pathogen transmission in general, and (3) provides a detailed quantitative basis for understanding the relative impact of reductions in vector longevity compared to other vector-borne disease prevention strategies. Accounting for age-dependent vector mortality in estimates of vectorial capacity and R(0) was most important when (1) vector densities are relatively low and the pattern of mortality can determine whether pathogen transmission will persist; i.e., determines whether R(0) is above or below 1, (2) vector population growth rate is relatively low and there are complex interactions between birth and death that differ fundamentally from birth-death relationships with age-independent mortality, and (3) the vector exhibits complex patterns of age-dependent mortality and R(0) ∼ 1. A limiting factor in the construction and evaluation of new age-dependent mortality models is the paucity of data characterizing vector mortality patterns, particularly for free ranging vectors in the field.

Ontogeny of vestibular compound action potentials in the domestic chicken

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jones, S. M.; Jones, T. A.

2000-01-01

Compound action potentials of the vestibular nerve were measured from the surface of the scalp in 148 chickens (Gallus domesticus). Ages ranged from incubation day 18 (E18) to 22 days posthatch (P22). Responses were elicited using linear acceleration cranial pulses. Response thresholds decreased at an average rate of -0.45 dB/day. The decrease was best fit by an exponential model with half-maturity time constant of 5.1 days and asymptote of approximately -25.9 dB re:1.0 g/ms. Mean threshold approached within 3 dB of the asymptote by ages P6-P9. Similarly, response latencies decreased exponentially to within 3% of mature values at ages beyond P9. The half-maturity time constant for peripheral response peak latencies P1, N1, and P2 was comparable to thresholds and ranged from approximately 4.6 to 6.2 days, whereas central peaks (N2, P3, and N3) ranged from 2.9 to 3.4 days. Latency-intensity slopes for P1, N1, and P2 tended to decrease with age, reaching mature values within approximately 100 hours of hatching. Amplitudes increased as a function of age with average growth rates for response peaks ranging from 0.04 to 0.09 microV/day. There was no obvious asymptote to the growth of amplitudes over the ages studied. Amplitude-intensity slopes also increased modestly with age. The results show that gravity receptors are responsive to transient cranial stimuli as early as E19 in the chicken embryo. The functional response of gravity receptors continues to develop for many days after all major morphological structures are in place. Distinct maturational processes can be identified in central and peripheral neural relays. Functional improvements during maturation may result from refinements in the receptor epithelia, improvements in central and peripheral synaptic transmission, increased neural myelination, as well as changes in the mechanical coupling between the cranium and receptor organ.

Ontogeny of Vestibular Compound Action Potentials in the Domestic Chicken

PubMed Central

M. Jones, Sherri

2000-01-01

Compound action potentials of the vestibular nerve were measured from the surface of the scalp in 148 chickens (Gallus domesticus). Ages ranged from incubation day 18 (E18) to 22 days posthatch (P22). Responses were elicited using linear acceleration cranial pulses. Response thresholds decreased at an average rate of –0.45 dB/day. The decrease was best fit by an exponential model with half-maturity time constant of 5.1 days and asymptote of approximately –25.9 dB re:1.0 g/ms. Mean threshold approached within 3 dB of the asymptote by ages P6–P9. Similarly, response latencies decreased exponentially to within 3% of mature values at ages beyond P9. The half-maturity time constant for peripheral response peak latencies P1, N1, and P2 was comparable to thresholds and ranged from approximately 4.6 to 6.2 days, whereas central peaks (N2, P3, and N3) ranged from 2.9 to 3.4 days. Latency-intensity slopes for P1, N1, and P2 tended to decrease with age, reaching mature values within approximately 100 hours of hatching. Amplitudes increased as a function of age with average growth rates for response peaks ranging from 0.04 to 0.09 μV/day. There was no obvious asymptote to the growth of amplitudes over the ages studied. Amplitude-intensity slopes also increased modestly with age. The results show that gravity receptors are responsive to transient cranial stimuli as early as E19 in the chicken embryo. The functional response of gravity receptors continues to develop for many days after all major morphological structures are in place. Distinct maturational processes can be identified in central and peripheral neural relays. Functional improvements during maturation may result from refinements in the receptor epithelia, improvements in central and peripheral synaptic transmission, increased neural myelination, as well as changes in the mechanical coupling between the cranium and receptor organ. PMID:11545229

Children's acceptance of a peer who is overweight: relations among gender, age and blame for weight status.

PubMed

Iobst, E A; Ritchey, P N; Nabors, L A; Stutz, R; Ghee, K; Smith, D T

2009-07-01

To examine the role of blame as a mediator of the relationships between perceiver age and gender and children's acceptance of an overweight peer. Cross-sectional study of children's perceptions of their overweight peers using structural equation modeling. Two hundred and ninety-one children between the ages of 3 and 11 years. Children viewed a videotape of a same-sex peer, dressed to appear overweight, interacting with an adult. After viewing the videotape, children responded to items assessing their perceptions of the child's social and emotional traits and how much the child was to blame for being overweight.Results:Confirmatory factor analysis indicated that the traits loaded on a single factor, acceptance. of analyses for our structural equation model indicated that as blame increased, acceptance of the peer decreased. The relationships between gender and blame and gender and acceptance were not significant. Children were categorized into three age groups (3-4, 5-8 and 9-11 years) to examine the influence of age. Children between 5 and 8 years of age were less likely to blame the model compared with younger and older children. Preschoolers reported the lowest acceptance, indicating a need for intervention for children in this age range. Furthermore, it will be important to conduct longitudinal studies to determine the influence of interventions as the child passes through different developmental stages.

Geroprotectors.org: a new, structured and curated database of current therapeutic interventions in aging and age-related disease.

PubMed

Moskalev, Alexey; Chernyagina, Elizaveta; de Magalhães, João Pedro; Barardo, Diogo; Thoppil, Harikrishnan; Shaposhnikov, Mikhail; Budovsky, Arie; Fraifeld, Vadim E; Garazha, Andrew; Tsvetkov, Vasily; Bronovitsky, Evgeny; Bogomolov, Vladislav; Scerbacov, Alexei; Kuryan, Oleg; Gurinovich, Roman; Jellen, Leslie C; Kennedy, Brian; Mamoshina, Polina; Dobrovolskaya, Evgeniya; Aliper, Alex; Kaminsky, Dmitry; Zhavoronkov, Alex

2015-09-01

As the level of interest in aging research increases, there is a growing number of geroprotectors, or therapeutic interventions that aim to extend the healthy lifespan and repair or reduce aging-related damage in model organisms and, eventually, in humans. There is a clear need for a manually-curated database of geroprotectors to compile and index their effects on aging and age-related diseases and link these effects to relevant studies and multiple biochemical and drug databases. Here, we introduce the first such resource, Geroprotectors (http://geroprotectors.org). Geroprotectors is a public, rapidly explorable database that catalogs over 250 experiments involving over 200 known or candidate geroprotectors that extend lifespan in model organisms. Each compound has a comprehensive profile complete with biochemistry, mechanisms, and lifespan effects in various model organisms, along with information ranging from chemical structure, side effects, and toxicity to FDA drug status. These are presented in a visually intuitive, efficient framework fit for casual browsing or in-depth research alike. Data are linked to the source studies or databases, providing quick and convenient access to original data. The Geroprotectors database facilitates cross-study, cross-organism, and cross-discipline analysis and saves countless hours of inefficient literature and web searching. Geroprotectors is a one-stop, knowledge-sharing, time-saving resource for researchers seeking healthy aging solutions.

Geroprotectors.org: a new, structured and curated database of current therapeutic interventions in aging and age-related disease

PubMed Central

Moskalev, Alexey; Chernyagina, Elizaveta; de Magalhães, João Pedro; Barardo, Diogo; Thoppil, Harikrishnan; Shaposhnikov, Mikhail; Budovsky, Arie; Fraifeld, Vadim E.; Garazha, Andrew; Tsvetkov, Vasily; Bronovitsky, Evgeny; Bogomolov, Vladislav; Scerbacov, Alexei; Kuryan, Oleg; Gurinovich, Roman; Jellen, Leslie C.; Kennedy, Brian; Mamoshina, Polina; Dobrovolskaya, Evgeniya; Aliper, Alex; Kaminsky, Dmitry; Zhavoronkov, Alex

2015-01-01

As the level of interest in aging research increases, there is a growing number of geroprotectors, or therapeutic interventions that aim to extend the healthy lifespan and repair or reduce aging-related damage in model organisms and, eventually, in humans. There is a clear need for a manually-curated database of geroprotectors to compile and index their effects on aging and age-related diseases and link these effects to relevant studies and multiple biochemical and drug databases. Here, we introduce the first such resource, Geroprotectors (http://geroprotectors.org). Geroprotectors is a public, rapidly explorable database that catalogs over 250 experiments involving over 200 known or candidate geroprotectors that extend lifespan in model organisms. Each compound has a comprehensive profile complete with biochemistry, mechanisms, and lifespan effects in various model organisms, along with information ranging from chemical structure, side effects, and toxicity to FDA drug status. These are presented in a visually intuitive, efficient framework fit for casual browsing or in-depth research alike. Data are linked to the source studies or databases, providing quick and convenient access to original data. The Geroprotectors database facilitates cross-study, cross-organism, and cross-discipline analysis and saves countless hours of inefficient literature and web searching. Geroprotectors is a one-stop, knowledge-sharing, time-saving resource for researchers seeking healthy aging solutions. PMID:26342919

Hyperactivity in the Gunn rat model of neonatal jaundice: age-related attenuation and emergence of gait deficits

PubMed Central

Stanford, John A.; Shuler, Jeffrey M.; Fowler, Stephen C.; Stanford, Kimberly G.; Ma, Delin; Bittel, Douglas C.; Le Pichon, Jean-Baptiste; Shapiro, Steven M.

2014-01-01

Background Neonatal jaundice resulting from elevated unconjugated bilirubin (UCB) occurs in 60–80% of newborn infants. Although mild jaundice is generally considered harmless, little is known about its long-term consequences. Recent studies have linked mild bilirubin-induced neurological dysfunction (BIND) with a range of neurological syndromes, including attention deficit-hyperactivity disorder. The goal of this study was to measure BIND across the lifespan in the Gunn rat model of BIND. Methods Using a sensitive force plate actometer, we measured locomotor activity and gait in jaundiced (jj) Gunn rats versus their non-jaundiced (Nj) littermates. Data were analyzed for young adult (3–4 months), early middle-aged (9–10 months), and late middle-aged (17–20 months) male rats. Results jj rats exhibited lower body weights at all ages and a hyperactivity that resolved at 17–20 months of age. Increased propulsive force and gait velocity accompanied hyperactivity during locomotor bouts at 9–10 months in jj rats. Stride length did not differ between the two groups at this age. Hyperactivity normalized and gait deficits, including decreased stride length, propulsive force, and gait velocity, emerged in the 17–20-month-old jj rats. Conclusions These results demonstrate that, in aging, hyperactivity decreases with the onset of gait deficits in the Gunn rat model of BIND. PMID:25518009

Relationship of Echocardiographic Z Scores Adjusted for Body Surface Area to Age, Sex, Race, and Ethnicity: The Pediatric Heart Network Normal Echocardiogram Database.

PubMed

Lopez, Leo; Colan, Steven; Stylianou, Mario; Granger, Suzanne; Trachtenberg, Felicia; Frommelt, Peter; Pearson, Gail; Camarda, Joseph; Cnota, James; Cohen, Meryl; Dragulescu, Andreea; Frommelt, Michele; Garuba, Olukayode; Johnson, Tiffanie; Lai, Wyman; Mahgerefteh, Joseph; Pignatelli, Ricardo; Prakash, Ashwin; Sachdeva, Ritu; Soriano, Brian; Soslow, Jonathan; Spurney, Christopher; Srivastava, Shubhika; Taylor, Carolyn; Thankavel, Poonam; van der Velde, Mary; Minich, LuAnn

2017-11-01

Published nomograms of pediatric echocardiographic measurements are limited by insufficient sample size to assess the effects of age, sex, race, and ethnicity. Variable methodologies have resulted in a wide range of Z scores for a single measurement. This multicenter study sought to determine Z scores for common measurements adjusted for body surface area (BSA) and stratified by age, sex, race, and ethnicity. Data collected from healthy nonobese children ≤18 years of age at 19 centers with a normal echocardiogram included age, sex, race, ethnicity, height, weight, echocardiographic images, and measurements performed at the Core Laboratory. Z score models involved indexed parameters (X/BSA α ) that were normally distributed without residual dependence on BSA. The models were tested for the effects of age, sex, race, and ethnicity. Raw measurements from models with and without these effects were compared, and <5% difference was considered clinically insignificant because interobserver variability for echocardiographic measurements are reported as ≥5% difference. Of the 3566 subjects, 90% had measurable images. Appropriate BSA transformations (BSA α ) were selected for each measurement. Multivariable regression revealed statistically significant effects by age, sex, race, and ethnicity for all outcomes, but all effects were clinically insignificant based on comparisons of models with and without the effects, resulting in Z scores independent of age, sex, race, and ethnicity for each measurement. Echocardiographic Z scores based on BSA were derived from a large, diverse, and healthy North American population. Age, sex, race, and ethnicity have small effects on the Z scores that are statistically significant but not clinically important. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Generic biomass functions for Norway spruce in Central Europe--a meta-analysis approach toward prediction and uncertainty estimation.

PubMed

Wirth, Christian; Schumacher, Jens; Schulze, Ernst-Detlef

2004-02-01

To facilitate future carbon and nutrient inventories, we used mixed-effect linear models to develop new generic biomass functions for Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) in Central Europe. We present both the functions and their respective variance-covariance matrices and illustrate their application for biomass prediction and uncertainty estimation for Norway spruce trees ranging widely in size, age, competitive status and site. We collected biomass data for 688 trees sampled in 102 stands by 19 authors. The total number of trees in the "base" model data sets containing the predictor variables diameter at breast height (D), height (H), age (A), site index (SI) and site elevation (HSL) varied according to compartment (roots: n = 114, stem: n = 235, dry branches: n = 207, live branches: n = 429 and needles: n = 551). "Core" data sets with about 40% fewer trees could be extracted containing the additional predictor variables crown length and social class. A set of 43 candidate models representing combinations of lnD, lnH, lnA, SI and HSL, including second-order polynomials and interactions, was established. The categorical variable "author" subsuming mainly methodological differences was included as a random effect in a mixed linear model. The Akaike Information Criterion was used for model selection. The best models for stem, root and branch biomass contained only combinations of D, H and A as predictors. More complex models that included site-related variables resulted for needle biomass. Adding crown length as a predictor for needles, branches and roots reduced both the bias and the confidence interval of predictions substantially. Applying the best models to a test data set of 17 stands ranging in age from 16 to 172 years produced realistic allocation patterns at the tree and stand levels. The 95% confidence intervals (% of mean prediction) were highest for crown compartments (approximately +/- 12%) and lowest for stem biomass (approximately +/- 5%), and within each compartment, they were highest for the youngest and oldest stands, respectively.

A Household-Based Study of Contact Networks Relevant for the Spread of Infectious Diseases in the Highlands of Peru

PubMed Central

Grijalva, Carlos G.; Goeyvaerts, Nele; Verastegui, Hector; Edwards, Kathryn M.; Gil, Ana I.; Lanata, Claudio F.; Hens, Niel

2015-01-01

Background Few studies have quantified social mixing in remote rural areas of developing countries, where the burden of infectious diseases is usually the highest. Understanding social mixing patterns in those settings is crucial to inform the implementation of strategies for disease prevention and control. We characterized contact and social mixing patterns in rural communities of the Peruvian highlands. Methods and Findings This cross-sectional study was nested in a large prospective household-based study of respiratory infections conducted in the province of San Marcos, Cajamarca-Peru. Members of study households were interviewed using a structured questionnaire of social contacts (conversation or physical interaction) experienced during the last 24 hours. We identified 9015 reported contacts from 588 study household members. The median age of respondents was 17 years (interquartile range [IQR] 4–34 years). The median number of reported contacts was 12 (IQR 8–20) whereas the median number of physical (i.e. skin-to-skin) contacts was 8.5 (IQR 5–14). Study participants had contacts mostly with people of similar age, and with their offspring or parents. The number of reported contacts was mainly determined by the participants’ age, household size and occupation. School-aged children had more contacts than other age groups. Within-household reciprocity of contacts reporting declined with household size (range 70%-100%). Ninety percent of household contact networks were complete, and furthermore, household members' contacts with non-household members showed significant overlap (range 33%-86%), indicating a high degree of contact clustering. A two-level mixing epidemic model was simulated to compare within-household mixing based on observed contact networks and within-household random mixing. No differences in the size or duration of the simulated epidemics were revealed. Conclusion This study of rural low-density communities in the highlands of Peru suggests contact patterns are highly assortative. Study findings support the use of within-household homogenous mixing assumptions for epidemic modeling in this setting. PMID:25734772

River Network Reorganization along the Upper Yangzte, Eastern Tibet: Insights from Thermochronology and Sedimentology.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gourbet, L.; Yang, R.; Fellin, M. G.; Maden, C.; Gong, J.; Jean-Louis, P.

2017-12-01

The high relief and high elevation of the southeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau are related to tectonic uplift and the fluvial incision of the Salween, Mekong, and Yangtze rivers. The upper Yangtze is the subject of numerous debates on the evolution of its drainage area, particularly in regards to the timing and geodynamic processes, and therefore has an impact on models of the Tibetan plateau evolution. Today, portions of the course of the Yangtze are controlled by active strike-slip faults. In order to study the evolution of the Cenozoic paleoriver network, we use low-temperature thermochronometry to estimate fluvial incision and palaeoenvironmental information derived from the detrital record. The Jianchuan basin, between the Yangtze and the Red River, contains late Eocene fluvial sediments that may correspond to an ancient connection between these rivers. Sediments located further north (DongWang formation, Yunnan-Sichuan boundary) consist of unsorted conglomerates and sandstones. They are exposed on the flanks of deep valleys. These sediments do not correspond to a large riverbed such as the Yangtze but rather indicate an episode of intense sedimentation with a significant contribution from talus, followed by a >1.2 km incision by a tributary of the upper Yangtze. In the same area, we performed apatite and zircon (U-Th)/He dating on a granitic pluton that is offset by an active sinistral strike-slip fault. Mean ZHe cooling ages range from 50 to 70 Ma. Samples located above 3870 m yield mean apatite (U-Th)/He ages ranging from 30 to 40 Ma. AHe ages for samples at lower elevation range from 8 to 15 Ma. Given the crystallization age of the pluton (83 Ma, U/Pb, zircon), cooling ages reflect exhumation, not post-intrusion cooling. Further research will use thermal modeling to infer incision rates and compare results with published data.

Understanding the formation and evolution of early-type galaxies based on newly developed single-burst stellar population synthesis models in the infrared

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roeck, Benjamin

2015-12-01

The detailed study of the different stellar populations which can be observed in galaxies is one of the most promising methods to shed light on the evolutionary histories of galaxies. So far, stellar population analysis has been carried out mainly in the optical wavelength range. The infrared spectral range, on the other hand, has been poorly studied so far, although it provides very important insights, particularly into the cooler stellar populations which are present in galaxies. However, in the last years, space telescopes like the Spitzer Space Telescope or the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer and instruments like the spectrograph X-Shooter on the Very Large Telescope have collected more and more photometric and spectroscopic data in this wavelength range. In order to analyze these observations, it is necessary to dispose of reliable and accurate stellar population models in the infrared. Only a small number of stellar population models in the infrared exist in the literature. They are mostly based on theoretical stellar libraries and very often cover only the near-infrared wavelength range at a rather low resolution. Hence, we developed new single-burst stellar population models between 8150 and 50000Å which are exclusively based on 180 spectra from the empirical Infrared Telescope Facility stellar library. We computed our single stellar population models for two different sets of isochrones and various types of initial mass functions of different slopes. Since the stars of the Infrared Telescope Facility library present only a limited coverage of the stellar atmospheric parameter space, our models are of sufficient quality only for ages larger than 1 Gyr and metallicities between [Fe/H] = 0.40 and 0.26. By combining our single stellar population models in the infrared with the extended medium-resolution Isaac Newton Telescope library of empirical spectra in the optical spectral range, we created the first single stellar population models covering the whole optical and infrared wavelength range between 3500 and 50000Å which are almost completely based on spectra of observed stars (apart from two gaps which were fitted with theoretical stellar spectra) . We analyze the behaviour of the near-infrared (J - K) and the Spitzer ([3.6]-[4.5]) colour calculated from our models. For ages older than 3 Gyr, both colours depend only slightly on age and metallicity. However, for younger ages, both colours become redder which is caused by the asymptotic giant branch stars contributing significantly to the light in the infrared at ages between 0.1 and 3 Gyr. Furthermore, we find a satisfactory agreement between the optical and near-infrared colours measured from our models and the colours observed from various samples of globular clusters and early-type x galaxies. However, our model predictions are only able to reproduce correctly the Spitzer ([3.6]-[4.5]) colours of older, more massive galaxies that resemble a single-burst population. Younger, less massive and more metal-poor galaxies show redder colours than our models. This mismatch can be explained by a more extended star formation history of these galaxies which includes a metal-poor or/and young population. The Spitzer ([3.6]-[4.5]) colours derived from our models also agree very well with those from most other models available in this wavelength range as long as they also correctly take into account a strong CO absorption band situated at 4.5 μm. The model predictions for colours in the near-infrared, such as (J - K), differ more between the different sets of models, depending on the underlying prescriptions for the asymptotic giant branch stellar evolutionary phase. Compared to other authors, we adopt only a moderate contribution of asymptotic giant branch stars to our models. Our stellar population models allow us also to determine mass-to-light ratios in different infrared bands. Consequently, we can confirm that the massto- light ratio determined in the Spitzer [3.6] μm band changes much less as a function of both age and metallicity than it does in the optical bands. However, it shows a non-negligible sensitivity to the initial mass function. Our models are of sufficient resolution to measure line strength indices up to the L-band. Hence, we redefined many indices in the near-infrared and identified new indicators for age, metallicity and the slope of the initial mass function. The equivalent widths of many indices which we computed from our stellar population models cannot be used to trace the large indices measured from observed early-type galaxies. While in the literature, this disagreement between the predicted and the observed line strength indices is usually attributed to a much enhanced contribution of asymptotic giant branch stars, we present a number of evidences which are at odds with such a view. Therefore, we propose an alternative scenario. We argue that a different abundance pattern in the early-type galaxies compared to that of the Milky Way which is characterized by an enhanced [C/Fe] ratio is able to account for this mismatch. The differences in the carbon enhancement between the galaxies can be attributed to the duration of their episodes of star formation which seem to be driven by galactic environment. In denser environments like in galaxy clusters, star formation takes place on a shorter characteristic timescale than in isolated galaxies. Hence, contrary to the situation in clusters, in isolated galaxies, the massive expulsion of carbon into the interstellar medium occurs before star formation has finished. Therefore, in the latter ones carbon is incorporated into the new generation of stars leading to enhanced carbon abundances with respect to cluster galaxies of a similar mass. We show that if we additionally include the effect of a bottom-heavy initial mass function in the case of the most massive early-type galaxies and assume enhanced abundance ratios for some other elements like sodium, we are able to simultaneously reproduce all of the studied line strength indices. Our analysis also shows that an active galactic nucleus does not seem to have any impact on the line strength indices which we measure for central stellar populations.

Constraining a hybrid volatility basis-set model for aging of wood-burning emissions using smog chamber experiments: a box-model study based on the VBS scheme of the CAMx model (v5.40)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ciarelli, Giancarlo; El Haddad, Imad; Bruns, Emily; Aksoyoglu, Sebnem; Möhler, Ottmar; Baltensperger, Urs; Prévôt, André S. H.

2017-06-01

In this study, novel wood combustion aging experiments performed at different temperatures (263 and 288 K) in a ˜ 7 m3 smog chamber were modelled using a hybrid volatility basis set (VBS) box model, representing the emission partitioning and their oxidation against OH. We combine aerosol-chemistry box-model simulations with unprecedented measurements of non-traditional volatile organic compounds (NTVOCs) from a high-resolution proton transfer reaction mass spectrometer (PTR-MS) and with organic aerosol measurements from an aerosol mass spectrometer (AMS). Due to this, we are able to observationally constrain the amounts of different NTVOC aerosol precursors (in the model) relative to low volatility and semi-volatile primary organic material (OMsv), which is partitioned based on current published volatility distribution data. By comparing the NTVOC / OMsv ratios at different temperatures, we determine the enthalpies of vaporization of primary biomass-burning organic aerosols. Further, the developed model allows for evaluating the evolution of oxidation products of the semi-volatile and volatile precursors with aging. More than 30 000 box-model simulations were performed to retrieve the combination of parameters that best fit the observed organic aerosol mass and O : C ratios. The parameters investigated include the NTVOC reaction rates and yields as well as enthalpies of vaporization and the O : C of secondary organic aerosol surrogates. Our results suggest an average ratio of NTVOCs to the sum of non-volatile and semi-volatile organic compounds of ˜ 4.75. The mass yields of these compounds determined for a wide range of atmospherically relevant temperatures and organic aerosol (OA) concentrations were predicted to vary between 8 and 30 % after 5 h of continuous aging. Based on the reaction scheme used, reaction rates of the NTVOC mixture range from 3.0 × 10-11 to 4. 0 × 10-11 cm3 molec-1 s-1. The average enthalpy of vaporization of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) surrogates was determined to be between 55 000 and 35 000 J mol-1, which implies a yield increase of 0.03-0.06 % K-1 with decreasing temperature. The improved VBS scheme is suitable for implementation into chemical transport models to predict the burden and oxidation state of primary and secondary biomass-burning aerosols.

Utility of the serum C-reactive protein for detection of occult bacterial infection in children.

PubMed

Isaacman, Daniel J; Burke, Bonnie L

2002-09-01

To assess the utility of serum C-reactive protein (CRP) as a screen for occult bacterial infection in children. Febrile children ages 3 to 36 months who visited an urban children's hospital emergency department and received a complete blood cell count and blood culture as part of their evaluation were prospectively enrolled from February 2, 2000, through May 30, 2001. Informed consent was obtained for the withdrawal of an additional 1-mL aliquot of blood for use in CRP evaluation. Logistic regression and receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves were modeled for each predictor to identify optimal test values, and were compared using likelihood ratio tests. Two hundred fifty-six patients were included in the analysis, with a median age of 15.3 months (range, 3.1-35.2 months) and median temperature at triage 40.0 degrees C (range, 39.0 degrees C-41.3 degrees C). Twenty-nine (11.3%) cases of occult bacterial infection (OBI) were identified, including 17 cases of pneumonia, 9 cases of urinary tract infection, and 3 cases of bacteremia. The median white blood cell count in this data set was 12.9 x 10(3)/ micro L [corrected] (range, 3.6-39.1 x10(3)/ micro L) [corrected], the median absolute neutrophil count (ANC) was 7.12 x 10(3)/L [corrected] (range, 0.56-28.16 x10(3)/L) [corrected], and the median CRP level was 1.7 mg/dL (range, 0.2-43.3 mg/dL). The optimal cut-off point for CRP in this data set (4.4 mg/dL) achieved a sensitivity of 63% and a specificity of 81% for detection of OBI in this population. Comparing models using cut-off values from individual laboratory predictors (ANC, white blood cell count, and CRP) that maximized sensitivity and specificity revealed that a model using an ANC of 10.6 x10(3)/L [corrected] (sensitivity, 69%; specificity, 79%) was the best predictive model. Adding CRP to the model insignificantly increased sensitivity to 79%, while significantly decreasing specificity to 50%. Active monitoring of emergency department blood cultures drawn during the study period from children between 3 and 36 months of age showed an overall bacteremia rate of 1.1% during this period. An ANC cut-off point of 10.6 x10(3)/L [corrected] offers the best predictive model for detection of occult bacterial infection using a single test. The addition of CRP to ANC adds little diagnostic utility. Furthermore, the lowered incidence of occult bacteremia in our population supports a decrease in the use of diagnostic screening in this population.

Dynamics at Intermediate Time Scales and Management of Ecological Populations

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-05-10

thinking about the importance of transients is to recognize the importance of serial autocorrelation in time of forcing terms over realistic ecological time...rich areas helps produce divergent home range responses bet - ween individuals from difference age classes. This model has broad applications for

Macrocrystal phlogopite Rb-Sr dates for the Ekati property kimberlites, Slave Province, Canada: evidence for multiple intrusive episodes in the Paleocene and Eocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Creaser, Robert A.; Grütter, Herman; Carlson, Jon; Crawford, Barbara

2004-09-01

New Rb-Sr age determinations using macrocrystal phlogopite are presented for 27 kimberlites from the Ekati property of the Lac de Gras region, Slave Province, Canada. These new data show that kimberlite magmatism at Ekati ranges in age from at least Late Paleocene (∼61 Ma) to Middle Eocene time (∼45 Ma). Older, perovskite-bearing kimberlites from Ekati extend this age range to Late Cretaceous time (∼74 Ma). Within this age range, emplacement episodes at ∼48, 51-53, 55-56 and 59-61 Ma can be recognized. Middle Eocene kimberlite magmatism of the previously dated Mark kimberlite (∼47.5 Ma) is shown to include four other pipes from the east-central Ekati property. A single kimberlite (Aaron) may be younger than the 47.5 Ma Mark kimberlite. The economically important Panda kimberlite is precisely dated in this study to be 53.3±0.6 Ma using the phlogopite isochron method, and up to six additional kimberlites from the central Ekati property have Early Eocene ages indistinguishable from that of Panda, including the Koala and Koala North occurrences. Late Paleocene 55-56 Ma kimberlite magmatism, represented by the Diavik kimberlite pipes adjacent to the southeastern Ekati property, is shown to extend onto the southeastern Ekati property and includes three, and possibly four, kimberlites. A precise eight-point phlogopite isochron for the Cobra South kimberlite yields an emplacement age of 59.7±0.4 Ma; eight other kimberlites from across the Ekati property have similar Late Paleocene Rb-Sr model ages. The addition of 27 new emplacement ages for kimberlites from the Ekati property confirms that kimberlite magmatism from the central Slave Province is geologically young, despite ages ranging back to Cambrian time from elsewhere in the Slave Province. With the available geochronologic database, Lac de Gras kimberlites with the highest diamond potential are currently restricted to the 51-53 and 55-56 Ma periods of kimberlite magmatism.

Chlorofluorocarbon and tritium age determination of ground-water recharge in the Ryan Flat subbasin, Trans-Pecos Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bartolino, J.R.

1997-01-01

A study was conducted to determine the relative influence of mountain-front infiltration in the Ryan Flat subbasin and to determine whether recent recharge (post-1940), which is of importance to water-use planning, has reached the Salt Basin aquifer, Trans-Pecos Texas. The alluvial and volcanic Salt Basin aquifer lies within a bolson, and the average depth to water in most of the subbasin is approximately 250 feet. Concentrations of the chlorofluorocarbons CFC-11, CFC-12, and CFC-113, as well as tritium, were measured in water from 10 wells in the study area. CFC-model recharge dates ranged from pre-1940 to the early 1970's. Ground water in five wells had CFC-model dates of pre-1940 or pre-1945. Ground water in two wells had dates of the mid- to late 1940's. Ground water from one well had a CFC-model recharge age of the early 1950's. Samples from the remaining two wells were most probably contaminated in some manner and are probably unreliable. CFC-model ages were calculated independently for the three chlorofluorocarbons, though the presence of volatile organic compounds affected agreement among them. Tritium activities in the nine wells for which tritium was analyzed indicated pre-1953 recharge and thus agreed approximately with the CFC-model dates. Ground water was analyzed for selected water-quality constituents. Water from all wells met U.S. Environmental Protection Agency national primary and secondary drinking water standards for all tested constituents except fluoride in samples from three wells. Silica concentrations in water from six wells exceeded a range considered typical in natural waters.

A Viscoelastic Constitutive Model Can Accurately Represent Entire Creep Indentation Tests of Human Patella Cartilage

PubMed Central

Pal, Saikat; Lindsey, Derek P.; Besier, Thor F.; Beaupre, Gary S.

2013-01-01

Cartilage material properties provide important insights into joint health, and cartilage material models are used in whole-joint finite element models. Although the biphasic model representing experimental creep indentation tests is commonly used to characterize cartilage, cartilage short-term response to loading is generally not characterized using the biphasic model. The purpose of this study was to determine the short-term and equilibrium material properties of human patella cartilage using a viscoelastic model representation of creep indentation tests. We performed 24 experimental creep indentation tests from 14 human patellar specimens ranging in age from 20 to 90 years (median age 61 years). We used a finite element model to reproduce the experimental tests and determined cartilage material properties from viscoelastic and biphasic representations of cartilage. The viscoelastic model consistently provided excellent representation of the short-term and equilibrium creep displacements. We determined initial elastic modulus, equilibrium elastic modulus, and equilibrium Poisson’s ratio using the viscoelastic model. The viscoelastic model can represent the short-term and equilibrium response of cartilage and may easily be implemented in whole-joint finite element models. PMID:23027200

Renal Aging: Causes and Consequences

PubMed Central

Hughes, Jeremy; Ferenbach, David A.

2017-01-01

Individuals age >65 years old are the fastest expanding population demographic throughout the developed world. Consequently, more aged patients than before are receiving diagnoses of impaired renal function and nephrosclerosis—age–associated histologic changes in the kidneys. Recent studies have shown that the aged kidney undergoes a range of structural changes and has altered transcriptomic, hemodynamic, and physiologic behavior at rest and in response to renal insults. These changes impair the ability of the kidney to withstand and recover from injury, contributing to the high susceptibility of the aged population to AKI and their increased propensity to develop subsequent progressive CKD. In this review, we examine these features of the aged kidney and explore the various validated and putative pathways contributing to the changes observed with aging in both experimental animal models and humans. We also discuss the potential for additional study to increase understanding of the aged kidney and lead to novel therapeutic strategies. PMID:28143966

Geographic Variations in Arthritis Prevalence, Health-Related Characteristics, and Management - United States, 2015.

PubMed

Barbour, Kamil E; Moss, Susan; Croft, Janet B; Helmick, Charles G; Theis, Kristina A; Brady, Teresa J; Murphy, Louise B; Hootman, Jennifer M; Greenlund, Kurt J; Lu, Hua; Wang, Yan

2018-03-16

Doctor-diagnosed arthritis is a common chronic condition affecting an estimated 23% (54 million) of adults in the United States, greatly influencing quality of life and costing approximately $300 billion annually. The geographic variations in arthritis prevalence, health-related characteristics, and management among states and territories are unknown. Therefore, public health professionals need to understand arthritis in their areas to target dissemination of evidence-based interventions that reduce arthritis morbidity. 2015. The Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System is an annual, random-digit-dialed landline and cellular telephone survey of noninstitutionalized adults aged ≥18 years residing in the United States. Self-reported data are collected from the 50 states, the District of Columbia, Guam, and Puerto Rico. Unadjusted and age-standardized prevalences of arthritis, arthritis health-related characteristics, and arthritis management were calculated. County-level estimates were calculated using a validated statistical modeling method. In 2015, in the 50 states and the District of Columbia, median age-standardized prevalence of arthritis was 23.0% (range: 17.2%-33.6%). Modeled prevalence of arthritis varied considerably by county (range: 11.2%-42.7%). In 13 states that administered the arthritis management module, among adults with arthritis, the age-standardized median percentage of participation in a self-management education course was 14.5% (range: 9.1%-19.0%), being told by a health care provider to engage in physical activity or exercise was 58.5% (range: 52.3%-61.9%), and being told to lose weight to manage arthritis symptoms (if overweight or obese) was 44.5% (range: 35.1%-53.2%). Respondents with arthritis who lived in the quartile of states with the highest prevalences of arthritis had the highest percentages of negative health-related characteristics (i.e., arthritis-attributable activity limitations, arthritis-attributable severe joint pain, and arthritis-attributable social participation restriction; ≥14 physically unhealthy days during the past 30 days; ≥14 mentally unhealthy days during the past 30 days; obesity; and leisure-time physical inactivity) and the lowest percentage of leisure-time walking. The prevalence, health-related characteristics, and management of arthritis varied substantially across states. The modeled prevalence of arthritis varied considerably by county. The findings highlight notable geographic variability in prevalence, health-related characteristics, and management of arthritis. Targeted use of evidence-based interventions that focus on physical activity and self-management education can reduce pain and improve function and quality of life for adults with arthritis and thus might reduce these geographic disparities.

Daily Events are Important for Age Differences in Mean and Duration for Negative Affect but not Positive Affect

PubMed Central

Charles, Susan T.; Mogle, Jacqueline; Urban, Emily J.; Almeida, David M.

2016-01-01

Across midlife and into old age, older adults often report lower levels of negative affect and similar if not higher levels of positive affect than relatively younger adults. Researchers have offered a simple explanation for this result: age is related to reductions in stressors and increases in pleasurable activities that result in higher levels of well-being. The current study examines subjective reports of emotional experience assessed across eight days in a large sample of adults (N=2022) ranging from 35 to 84 years-old. By modeling age differences before and after adjusting for daily positive uplifts and negative stressors, this paper assesses the extent to which daily events account for age differences in positive and negative affect reports. Consistent with previous research, we found that older age is related to lower means levels and shorter duration of a negative emotional experience in a model only adjusting for gender, education and ethnicity. After adjusting for daily events, however, the linear age-related effects were no longer significant. For positive affect, adjusting for daily events did not alter age-related patterns of experiencing higher mean levels and longer positive experience duration, suggesting that other factors underlie age-related increases in positive affect. PMID:27684103

The effects of beverage type on suicide rate in Russia.

PubMed

Razvodovsky, Yury E

2011-12-01

Research evidence has suggested that the consumption of different types of alcoholic beverage may have a differential effect on suicide rate. The aim of this study was to examine the relation between the consumption of different beverage types and suicide rates in Russia. Age-standardized sex- and age-specific suicide rate for the period 1980-2005 and data on beverage-specific alcohol sale were obtained from the Russian State Statistical Committee. Time-series analytical modeling techniques (ARIMA) were used to examine the relationship between the sale of different alcoholic beverages and suicide rates. Vodka consumption as measured by sale was significantly associated with both male and female suicide rate. The consumption of beer and wine were not associated with suicide rate. The estimates of the age specific models for men were positive (except for the 75+ age group) and ranging from 0.069 (60-74 age group) to 0.123 (30-44 age group). The estimates for women were positive for the 15-29 age group (0.08), 30-44 age group (0.096) and 45-59 age group (0.057). These findings suggest that public health efforts should focus on both reducing overall consumption and changing beverage preference away from distilled spirits in order to reduce suicide rate in Russia.

Daily events are important for age differences in mean and duration for negative affect but not positive affect.

PubMed

Charles, Susan T; Mogle, Jacqueline; Urban, Emily J; Almeida, David M

2016-11-01

Across midlife and into old age, older adults often report lower levels of negative affect and similar if not higher levels of positive affect than relatively younger adults. Researchers have offered a simple explanation for this result: Age is related to reductions in stressors and increases in pleasurable activities that result in higher levels of well-being. The current study examines subjective reports of emotional experience assessed across 8 days in a large sample of adults (N = 2,022) ranging from 35 to 84 years old. By modeling age differences before and after adjusting for daily positive uplifts and negative stressors, this article assesses the extent to which daily events account for age differences in positive and negative affect reports. Consistent with previous research, the authors found that older age is related to lower mean levels and shorter duration of a negative emotional experience in a model only adjusting for gender, education, and ethnicity. After adjusting for daily events, however, the linear age-related effects were no longer significant. For positive affect, adjusting for daily events did not alter age-related patterns of experiencing higher mean levels and longer positive experience duration, suggesting that other factors underlie age-related increases in positive affect. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Regenerative hair waves in aging mice and extra-follicular modulators follistatin, dkk1, and sfrp4.

PubMed

Chen, Chih-Chiang; Murray, Philip J; Jiang, Ting Xin; Plikus, Maksim V; Chang, Yun-Ting; Lee, Oscar K; Widelitz, Randall B; Chuong, Cheng-Ming

2014-08-01

Hair cycling is modulated by factors both intrinsic and extrinsic to hair follicles. Cycling defects lead to conditions such as aging-associated alopecia. Recently, we demonstrated that mouse skin exhibits regenerative hair waves, reflecting a coordinated regenerative behavior in follicle populations. Here, we use this model to explore the regenerative behavior of aging mouse skin. Old mice (>18 months) tracked over several months show that with progressing age, hair waves slow down, wave propagation becomes restricted, and hair cycle domains fragment into smaller domains. Transplanting aged donor mouse skin to a young host can restore donor cycling within a 3 mm range of the interface, suggesting that changes are due to extracellular factors. Therefore, hair stem cells in aged skin can be reactivated. Molecular studies show that extra-follicular modulators Bmp2, Dkk1, and Sfrp4 increase in early anagen. Further, we identify follistatin as an extra-follicular modulator, which is highly expressed in late telogen and early anagen. Indeed, follistatin induces hair wave propagation and its level decreases in aging mice. We present an excitable medium model to simulate the cycling behavior in aging mice and illustrate how the interorgan macroenvironment can regulate the aging process by integrating both "activator" and "inhibitor" signals.

Impaired fasting blood glucose is associated to cognitive impairment and cerebral atrophy in middle-aged non-human primates

PubMed Central

Djelti, Fathia; Dhenain, Marc; Terrien, Jérémy; Picq, Jean-Luc; Hardy, Isabelle; Champeval, Delphine; Perret, Martine; Schenker, Esther; Epelbaum, Jacques; Aujard, Fabienne

2017-01-01

Age-associated cognitive impairment is a major health and social issue because of increasing aged population. Cognitive decline is not homogeneous in humans and the determinants leading to differences between subjects are not fully understood. In middle-aged healthy humans, fasting blood glucose levels in the upper normal range are associated with memory impairment and cerebral atrophy. Due to a close evolutional similarity to Man, non-human primates may be useful to investigate the relationships between glucose homeostasis, cognitive deficits and structural brain alterations. In the grey mouse lemur, Microcebus murinus, spatial memory deficits have been associated with age and cerebral atrophy but the origin of these alterations have not been clearly identified. Herein, we showed that, on 28 female grey mouse lemurs (age range 2.4-6.1 years-old), age correlated with impaired fasting blood glucose (rs=0.37) but not with impaired glucose tolerance or insulin resistance. In middle-aged animals (4.1-6.1 years-old), fasting blood glucose was inversely and closely linked with spatial memory performance (rs=0.56) and hippocampus (rs=−0.62) or septum (rs=−0.55) volumes. These findings corroborate observations in humans and further support the grey mouse lemur as a natural model to unravel mechanisms which link impaired glucose homeostasis, brain atrophy and cognitive processes. PMID:28039490

Impaired fasting blood glucose is associated to cognitive impairment and cerebral atrophy in middle-aged non-human primates.

PubMed

Djelti, Fathia; Dhenain, Marc; Terrien, Jérémy; Picq, Jean-Luc; Hardy, Isabelle; Champeval, Delphine; Perret, Martine; Schenker, Esther; Epelbaum, Jacques; Aujard, Fabienne

2016-12-28

Age-associated cognitive impairment is a major health and social issue because of increasing aged population. Cognitive decline is not homogeneous in humans and the determinants leading to differences between subjects are not fully understood. In middle-aged healthy humans, fasting blood glucose levels in the upper normal range are associated with memory impairment and cerebral atrophy. Due to a close evolutional similarity to Man, non-human primates may be useful to investigate the relationships between glucose homeostasis, cognitive deficits and structural brain alterations. In the grey mouse lemur, Microcebus murinus , spatial memory deficits have been associated with age and cerebral atrophy but the origin of these alterations have not been clearly identified. Herein, we showed that, on 28 female grey mouse lemurs (age range 2.4-6.1 years-old), age correlated with impaired fasting blood glucose (r s =0.37) but not with impaired glucose tolerance or insulin resistance. In middle-aged animals (4.1-6.1 years-old), fasting blood glucose was inversely and closely linked with spatial memory performance (r s =0.56) and hippocampus (r s =-0.62) or septum (r s =-0.55) volumes. These findings corroborate observations in humans and further support the grey mouse lemur as a natural model to unravel mechanisms which link impaired glucose homeostasis, brain atrophy and cognitive processes.

EIGHTH INTERIM STATUS REPORT: MODEL 9975 PCV O-RING FIXTURE LONG-TERM LEAK PERFORMANCE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Daugherty, W. L.

2013-09-03

A series of experiments to monitor the aging performance of Viton® GLT O-rings used in the Model 9975 package has been ongoing since 2004 at the Savannah River National Laboratory. Seventy tests using mock-ups of 9975 Primary Containment Vessels (PCVs) were assembled and heated to temperatures ranging from 200 to 450 ºF. They were leak-tested initially and have been tested periodically to determine if they meet the criterion of leak-tightness defined in ANSI standard N14.5-97. Fourteen additional tests were initiated in 2008 with GLT-S O-rings heated to temperatures ranging from 200 to 400 ºF. High temperature aging continues for 23more » GLT O-ring fixtures at 200 – 270 ºF. Room temperature leak test failures have been experienced in all of the GLT O-ring fixtures aging at 350 ºF and higher temperatures, and in 8 fixtures aging at 300 ºF. The remaining GLT O-ring fixtures aging at 300 ºF have been retired from testing following more than 5 years at temperature without failure. No failures have yet been observed in GLT O-ring fixtures aging at 200 ºF for 61 - 85 months, which is still bounding to O-ring temperatures during storage in KArea Complex (KAC). Based on expectations that the fixtures aging at 200 ºF will remain leaktight for a significant period yet to come, 2 additional fixtures began aging in 2011 at an intermediate temperature of 270 ºF, with hopes that they may reach a failure condition before the 200 ºF fixtures. High temperature aging continues for 6 GLT-S O-ring fixtures at 200 – 300 ºF. Room temperature leak test failures have been experienced in all 8 of the GLT-S O-ring fixtures aging at 350 and 400 ºF. No failures have yet been observed in GLT-S O-ring fixtures aging at 200 - 300 ºF for 41 - 45 months. Aging and periodic leak testing will continue for the remaining PCV fixtures.« less

Inferring the colonization of a mountain range--refugia vs. nunatak survival in high alpine ground beetles.

PubMed

Lohse, Konrad; Nicholls, James A; Stone, Graham N

2011-01-01

It has long been debated whether high alpine specialists survived ice ages in situ on small ice-free islands of habitat, so-called nunataks, or whether glacial survival was restricted to larger massifs de refuge at the periphery. We evaluate these alternative hypotheses in a local radiation of high alpine carabid beetles (genus Trechus) in the Orobian Alps, Northern Italy. While summits along the northern ridge of this mountain range were surrounded by the icesheet as nunataks during the last glacial maximum, southern areas remained unglaciated. We analyse a total of 1366 bp of mitochondrial (Cox1 and Cox2) data sampled from 150 individuals from twelve populations and 530 bp of nuclear (PEPCK) sequence sampled for a subset of 30 individuals. Using Bayesian inference, we estimate ancestral location states in the gene trees, which in turn are used to infer the most likely order of recolonization under a model of sequential founder events from a massif de refuge from the mitochondrial data. We test for the paraphyly expected under this model and for reciprocal monophyly predicted by a contrasting model of prolonged persistence of nunatak populations. We find that (i) only three populations are incompatible with the paraphyly of the massif de refuge model, (ii) both mitochondrial and nuclear data support separate refugial origins for populations on the western and eastern ends of the northern ridge, and (iii) mitochondrial node ages suggest persistence on the northern ridge for part of the last ice age. © 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

The tectonic evolution of the Irtysh tectonic belt: New zircon U-Pb ages of arc-related and collisional granitoids in the Kalaxiangar tectonic belt, NW China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hong, Tao; Klemd, Reiner; Gao, Jun; Xiang, Peng; Xu, Xing-Wang; You, Jun; Wang, Xin-Shui; Wu, Chu; Li, Hao; Ke, Qiang

2017-02-01

Precise geochronological constraints of the Irtysh tectonic belt situated between the Saur Island Arc and the Altay Terrane are crucial to a better understanding of the tectonic evolution of the Central Asian Orogenic Belt (CAOB). Recently, we discovered repeatedly deformed arc-related and collisional granitoids in the Kalaxiangar tectonic belt (KTB), which is located in the eastern part of the Irtysh tectonic belt. In this study, we report new whole-rock geochemical, zircon U-Pb and Hf isotopic data of the arc-related and collisional granitoids. Our data reveal that 1) arc-related granodioritic porphyries formed at ca. 382-374 Ma. Recrystallized zircon grains from a (ultra-)mylonitic granodiorite of the Laoshankou zone in the southern KTB display a U-Pb age of ca. 360 Ma; 2) syn-collisional granodioritic porphyries, which distribute along faults and parallel to the cleavage, were emplaced at ca. 367-356 Ma, with εHf(t) values varying from + 7.8 to + 14.2 and Hf model ages from 873 to 459 Ma; 3) a post-collisional A-type granodioritic porphyry, which crosscuts the NW-NNW trending schistosity of the metasedimentary country rocks at a low angle, has an age of ca. 324-320 Ma, while the εHf(t) values range from + 7.6 to + 14.4 with Hf model ages from 850 to 416 Ma; 4) post-collisional strike-slip A-type granite dykes, exposed along strike-slip faults, gave ages between 287 and 279 Ma, whereas the εHf(t) values range from + 4.9 to + 12.7 and the Hf model ages from 995 to 500 Ma; and 5) A-type biotite granite dykes, which intruded along conjugate tension joints, have ages of 274-271 Ma, and εHf(t) values from + 1.5 to + 13.2 with Hf model ages from 1196 to 454 Ma. Consequently, we propose that the collision between the Saur Island Arc and the Altay Terrane occurred in the Early Carboniferous (ca. 367-356 Ma) and the subsequent post-collisional tectonic process continued to the Late Carboniferous (ca. 324-320 Ma). It is further suggested that the Irtysh tectonic belt underwent large-scale strike-slip deformation during the mid-Permian between 287 and 279 Ma. The termination of the Irtysh tectonic belt orogeny is thought to have also occurred during the mid-Permian between 274 and 271 Ma.

Age-related apparent diffusion coefficient changes in the normal brain.

PubMed

Watanabe, Memi; Sakai, Osamu; Ozonoff, Al; Kussman, Steven; Jara, Hernán

2013-02-01

To measure the mean diffusional age-related changes of the brain over the full human life span by using diffusion-weighted spin-echo single-shot echo-planar magnetic resonance (MR) imaging and sequential whole-brain apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) histogram analysis and, secondarily, to build mathematical models of these normal age-related changes throughout human life. After obtaining institutional review board approval, a HIPAA-compliant retrospective search was conducted for brain MR imaging studies performed in 2007 for various clinical indications. Informed consent was waived. The brain data of 414 healthy subjects (189 males and 225 females; mean age, 33.7 years; age range, 2 days to 89.3 years) were obtained with diffusion-weighted spin-echo single-shot echo-planar MR imaging. ADC histograms of the whole brain were generated. ADC peak values, histogram widths, and intracranial volumes were plotted against age, and model parameters were estimated by using nonlinear regression. Four different stages were identified for aging changes in ADC peak values, as characterized by specific mathematical terms: There were age-associated exponential decays for the maturation period and the development period, a constant term for adulthood, and a linear increase for the senescence period. The age dependency of ADC peak value was simulated by using four-term six-coefficient function, including biexponential and linear terms. This model fit the data very closely (R(2) = 0.91). Brain diffusivity as a whole demonstrated age-related changes through four distinct periods of life. These results could contribute to establishing an ADC baseline of the normal brain, covering the full human life span.

SPIN EVOLUTION OF ACCRETING YOUNG STARS. I. EFFECT OF MAGNETIC STAR-DISK COUPLING

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Matt, Sean P.; Greene, Thomas P.; Pinzon, Giovanni

2010-05-10

We present a model for the rotational evolution of a young, solar mass star interacting with an accretion disk. The model incorporates a description of the angular momentum transfer between the star and the disk due to a magnetic connection, and includes changes in the star's mass and radius and a decreasing accretion rate. The model also includes, for the first time in a spin evolution model, the opening of the stellar magnetic field lines, as expected to arise from twisting via star-disk differential rotation. In order to isolate the effect that this has on the star-disk interaction torques, wemore » neglect the influence of torques that may arise from open field regions connected to the star or disk. For a range of magnetic field strengths, accretion rates, and initial spin rates, we compute the stellar spin rates of pre-main-sequence stars as they evolve on the Hayashi track to an age of 3 Myr. How much the field opening affects the spin depends on the strength of the coupling of the magnetic field to the disk. For the relatively strong coupling (i.e., high magnetic Reynolds number) expected in real systems, all models predict spin periods of less than {approx}3 days, in the age range of 1-3 Myr. Furthermore, these systems typically do not reach an equilibrium spin rate within 3 Myr, so that the spin at any given time depends upon the choice of initial spin rate. This corroborates earlier suggestions that, in order to explain the full range of observed rotation periods of approximately 1-10 days, additional processes, such as the angular momentum loss from powerful stellar winds, are necessary.« less

Age-related changes in bone strength from HR-pQCT derived microarchitectural parameters with an emphasis on the role of cortical porosity.

PubMed

Vilayphiou, Nicolas; Boutroy, Stephanie; Sornay-Rendu, Elisabeth; Van Rietbergen, Bert; Chapurlat, Roland

2016-02-01

The high resolution peripheral computed tomography (HR-pQCT) technique has seen recent developments with regard to the assessment of cortical porosity. In this study, we investigated the role of cortical porosity on bone strength in a large cohort of women. The distal radius and distal tibia were scanned by HR-pQCT. We assessed bone strength by estimating the failure load by microfinite element analysis (μFEA), with isotropic and homogeneous material properties. We built a multivariate model to predict it, using a few microarchitecture variables including cortical porosity. Among 857 Caucasian women analyzed with μFEA, we found that cortical and trabecular properties, along with the failure load, impaired slightly with advancing age in premenopausal women, the correlations with age being modest, with |rage| ranging from 0.14 to 0.38. After the onset of the menopause, those relationships with age were stronger for most parameters at both sites, with |rage| ranging from 0.10 to 0.64, notably for cortical porosity and failure load, which were markedly deteriorated with increasing age. Our multivariate model using microarchitecture parameters revealed that cortical porosity played a significant role in bone strength prediction, with semipartial r(2)=0.22 only at the tibia in postmenopausal women. In conclusion, in our large cohort of women, we observed a small decline of bone strength at the tibia before the onset of menopause. We also found an age-related increase of cortical porosity at both scanned sites in premenopausal women. In postmenopausal women, the relatively high increase of cortical porosity accounted for the decline in bone strength only at the tibia. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Intracluster age gradients in numerous young stellar clusters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Getman, K. V.; Feigelson, E. D.; Kuhn, M. A.; Bate, M. R.; Broos, P. S.; Garmire, G. P.

2018-05-01

The pace and pattern of star formation leading to rich young stellar clusters is quite uncertain. In this context, we analyse the spatial distribution of ages within 19 young (median t ≲ 3 Myr on the Siess et al. time-scale), morphologically simple, isolated, and relatively rich stellar clusters. Our analysis is based on young stellar object (YSO) samples from the Massive Young Star-Forming Complex Study in Infrared and X-ray and Star Formation in Nearby Clouds surveys, and a new estimator of pre-main sequence (PMS) stellar ages, AgeJX, derived from X-ray and near-infrared photometric data. Median cluster ages are computed within four annular subregions of the clusters. We confirm and extend the earlier result of Getman et al. (2014): 80 per cent of the clusters show age trends where stars in cluster cores are younger than in outer regions. Our cluster stacking analyses establish the existence of an age gradient to high statistical significance in several ways. Time-scales vary with the choice of PMS evolutionary model; the inferred median age gradient across the studied clusters ranges from 0.75 to 1.5 Myr pc-1. The empirical finding reported in the present study - late or continuing formation of stars in the cores of star clusters with older stars dispersed in the outer regions - has a strong foundation with other observational studies and with the astrophysical models like the global hierarchical collapse model of Vázquez-Semadeni et al.

Transit-time and age distributions for nonlinear time-dependent compartmental systems.

PubMed

Metzler, Holger; Müller, Markus; Sierra, Carlos A

2018-02-06

Many processes in nature are modeled using compartmental systems (reservoir/pool/box systems). Usually, they are expressed as a set of first-order differential equations describing the transfer of matter across a network of compartments. The concepts of age of matter in compartments and the time required for particles to transit the system are important diagnostics of these models with applications to a wide range of scientific questions. Until now, explicit formulas for transit-time and age distributions of nonlinear time-dependent compartmental systems were not available. We compute densities for these types of systems under the assumption of well-mixed compartments. Assuming that a solution of the nonlinear system is available at least numerically, we show how to construct a linear time-dependent system with the same solution trajectory. We demonstrate how to exploit this solution to compute transit-time and age distributions in dependence on given start values and initial age distributions. Furthermore, we derive equations for the time evolution of quantiles and moments of the age distributions. Our results generalize available density formulas for the linear time-independent case and mean-age formulas for the linear time-dependent case. As an example, we apply our formulas to a nonlinear and a linear version of a simple global carbon cycle model driven by a time-dependent input signal which represents fossil fuel additions. We derive time-dependent age distributions for all compartments and calculate the time it takes to remove fossil carbon in a business-as-usual scenario.

Provenance of Late Ordovician Sandstones along the southeastern Appalachian Mountains: Implications for the Tectonic Model of the Taconic Orogeny

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guerrero, J. C.; Herrmann, A. D.; Haynes, J.

2017-12-01

A provenance study of sandstones along the southeastern Appalachian Mountains has been conducted in order to test the current volcanic arc-continent collision and foreland basin formation model of the Taconic Orogeny. Samples along the southeastern Appalachians were taken from sandstone sequences deposited between 460-450 Ma. Results from these sandstones show three dominate age ranges: 465-685 Ma, 980-1300 Ma, and 1300-1500 Ma. The 980-1300 Ma and 1300-1500 Ma ages are seen throughout the study area and are compatible with previously reported ages of the Grenville Orogeny and the Rhyolite-Granite Province. The northernmost samples have a small quantity of 465-685 Ma zircons which is attributed to an accretionary wedge that formed as a result of the continent-island arc collision and acted as a physical barrier keeping sediment from depositing within the basin. The younger age signal becomes stronger to the south, as samples in Georgia and Alabama show strong concentrations of 465-685 zircons. These ages are attributed to exotic terranes (Dalhonega Terrane and Carolina Terrane) that were accreted onto Laurentia during the Taconic Orogeny and/or a possible change in subduction direction leading to a back-arc basin model for the southern Appalachian Taconic Orogeny. The results from this provenance analysis support previous studies indicating that the model for the Taconic Orogeny is a combined A-type subduction for the north and a B-type subduction model for the southern part of the orogeny.

An evaluation of the zircon method of isotopic dating in the Southern Arabian Craton

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cooper, J.A.; Stacey, J.S.; Stoeser, D.G.; Fleck, R.J.

1979-01-01

A zircon study has been made on eleven samples of igneous rocks from the Saudi Arabian Craton. Ages of sized and magnetic fractions of zircon concentrates show variable degrees of discordance which seem to result from a very young disturbance that produces linear arrays in the Concordia plot. Model age calculations based on a statistically and geologically reasonable lower intercept produce very consistent internal relationships. The Pan African Orogeny, considered to be responsible for loss of radiogenic argon and strontium from minerals of many rocks, does not appear to have affected the zircon data, even though uplift had exposed the rocks of the Arabian Shield at that time. Tonalite, granodiorite, and crosscutting leucoadamellite bodies in the southern part of the An Nimas Bathylith yield ages in the time range 820-760 Ma. A narrow time range of 660 to 665 million years was indicated for ages of widely separated and compositionally different intrusive bodies all to the east of the An Nimas Bathylith. This work suggests that the younger end of the age spectrum established from regional K-Ar and Rb-Sr measurements may be underestimated, and that magmatic activity could be more episodic than previously assumed.

Impact of demographic, behavioral, and dental care utilization parameters on tooth color and personal satisfaction.

PubMed

Odioso, L L; Gibb, R D; Gerlach, R W

2000-01-01

A cross-sectional survey across broad age ranges was conducted to evaluate demographic, behavioral, and treatment parameters that impact tooth color and its perception. The sample included 180 US adults and teenagers, with a comparable representation of males and females in 6 different age strata, ranging from 13 to 64 years. Tooth color (L*a*b*) was measured on the maxillary central incisors using a spectrophotometer, and first-person satisfaction with tooth color was assessed using a five-point qualitative scale. Demographic, behavioral, and oral care parameters were modeled using multiple regression analysis. After adjusting for other explanatory variables, age, gender, coffee/tea consumption, and dental care all significantly affected yellowing (b*) and brightness (L*). Dental-visit frequency was the only factor that significantly predicted self-satisfaction with tooth color, explaining just 3% of the overall variability. First-person dissatisfaction with tooth color was common and found in most demographic and behavioral cohorts. Although age contributed to objectively measured tooth discoloration, personal satisfaction with tooth color was age-independent. These results suggest that the need or demand for esthetic dentistry may be broad-based and transcend stereotypical perceptions.

Age and choice in health insurance: evidence from a discrete choice experiment.

PubMed

Becker, Karolin; Zweifel, Peter

2008-01-01

A uniform package of benefits and uniform cost sharing are elements of regulation inherent in most social health insurance systems. Both elements risk burdening the population with a welfare loss if preferences for risk and insurance attributes differ. This suggests the introduction of more choice in social health insurance packages may be advantageous; however, it is widely believed that this would not benefit the elderly.A representative telephone survey of 1000 people aged >24 years living in the German- and French-speaking parts of Switzerland was conducted. Participants were asked to compare the status quo (i.e. their current insurance contract) with ten hypothetical alternatives. In addition, participants were asked questions concerning utilization of healthcare services; overall satisfaction with the healthcare system, insurer and insurance policy; and a general preference for new elements in the insurance package. Socioeconomic variables surveyed were age, sex, total household income, education (seven categories ranging from primary school to university degree), place of residence, occupation, and marital status. To examine the relationship between age and willingness to pay (WTP) for additional options in Swiss social health insurance.A representative telephone survey of 1000 people aged >24 years living in the German- and French-speaking parts of Switzerland was conducted. Participants were asked to compare the status quo (i.e. their current insurance contract) with ten hypothetical alternatives. In addition, participants were asked questions concerning utilization of healthcare services; overall satisfaction with the healthcare system, insurer and insurance policy; and a general preference for new elements in the insurance package. Socioeconomic variables surveyed were age, sex, total household income, education (seven categories ranging from primary school to university degree), place of residence, occupation, and marital status. A discrete choice experiment was developed using six attributes (deductibles, co-payment, access to alternative medicines, medication choice, access to innovation, and monthly premium) that are currently in debate within the context of Swiss health insurance. These attributes have been shown to be important in the choice of insurance contract. Using statistical design optimization procedures, the number of choice sets was reduced to 27 and randomly split into three groups. One choice was included twice to test for consistency. Two random effects probit models were developed: a simple model where marginal utilities and WTP values were not allowed to vary according to socioeconomic characteristics, and a more complex model where the values were permitted to depend on socioeconomic variables.A representative telephone survey of 1000 people aged >24 years living in the German- and French-speaking parts of Switzerland was conducted. Participants were asked to compare the status quo (i.e. their current insurance contract) with ten hypothetical alternatives. In addition, participants were asked questions concerning utilization of healthcare services; overall satisfaction with the healthcare system, insurer and insurance policy; and a general preference for new elements in the insurance package. Socioeconomic variables surveyed were age, sex, total household income, education (seven categories ranging from primary school to university degree), place of residence, occupation, and marital status. All chosen elements proved relevant for choice in the simple model. Accounting for socioeconomic characteristics in the comprehensive model reveals preference heterogeneity for contract attributes, but also for the propensity to consider deviating from the status quo and choosing an alternative health insurance contract. The findings suggest that while the elderly do exhibit a stronger status quo bias than younger age groups, they require less rather than more specific compensation for selected cutbacks, indicating a potential for contracts that induce self-rationing in return for lower premiums.

Phospholipase A2 - nexus of aging, oxidative stress, neuronal excitability, and functional decline of the aging nervous system? Insights from a snail model system of neuronal aging and age-associated memory impairment.

PubMed

Hermann, Petra M; Watson, Shawn N; Wildering, Willem C

2014-01-01

The aging brain undergoes a range of changes varying from subtle structural and physiological changes causing only minor functional decline under healthy normal aging conditions, to severe cognitive or neurological impairment associated with extensive loss of neurons and circuits due to age-associated neurodegenerative disease conditions. Understanding how biological aging processes affect the brain and how they contribute to the onset and progress of age-associated neurodegenerative diseases is a core research goal in contemporary neuroscience. This review focuses on the idea that changes in intrinsic neuronal electrical excitability associated with (per)oxidation of membrane lipids and activation of phospholipase A2 (PLA2) enzymes are an important mechanism of learning and memory failure under normal aging conditions. Specifically, in the context of this special issue on the biology of cognitive aging we portray the opportunities offered by the identifiable neurons and behaviorally characterized neural circuits of the freshwater snail Lymnaea stagnalis in neuronal aging research and recapitulate recent insights indicating a key role of lipid peroxidation-induced PLA2 as instruments of aging, oxidative stress and inflammation in age-associated neuronal and memory impairment in this model system. The findings are discussed in view of accumulating evidence suggesting involvement of analogous mechanisms in the etiology of age-associated dysfunction and disease of the human and mammalian brain.

Volcanic synchronisation of the EPICA-DC and TALDICE ice cores for the last 42 kyr BP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Severi, M.; Udisti, R.; Becagli, S.; Stenni, B.; Traversi, R.

2012-03-01

The age scale synchronisation between the Talos Dome and the EPICA Dome C ice cores was carried on through the identification of several common volcanic signatures. This paper describes the rigorous method, using the signature of volcanic sulphate, which was employed for the last 42 kyr of the record. Using this tight stratigraphic link, we transferred the EDC age scale to the Talos Dome ice core, producing a new age scale for the last 12 kyr. We estimated the discrepancies between the modelled TALDICE-1 age scale and the new scale during the studied period, by evaluating the ratio R of the apparent duration of temporal intervals between pairs of isochrones. Except for a very few cases, R ranges between 0.8 and 1.2, corresponding to an uncertainty of up to 20% in the estimate of the time duration in at least one of the two ice cores. At this stage our approach does not allow us to unequivocally identify which of the models is affected by errors, but, taking into account only the historically known volcanic events, we found that discrepancies up to 200 yr appear in the last two millennia in the TALDICE-1 model, while our new age scale shows a much better agreement with the volcanic absolute horizons. Thus, we propose for the Talos Dome ice core a new age scale (covering the whole Holocene) obtained by a direct transfer, via our stratigraphic link, from the EDC modelled age scale by Lemieux-Dudon et al. (2010).

The Role of Age and Executive Function in Auditory Category Learning

PubMed Central

Reetzke, Rachel; Maddox, W. Todd; Chandrasekaran, Bharath

2015-01-01

Auditory categorization is a natural and adaptive process that allows for the organization of high-dimensional, continuous acoustic information into discrete representations. Studies in the visual domain have identified a rule-based learning system that learns and reasons via a hypothesis-testing process that requires working memory and executive attention. The rule-based learning system in vision shows a protracted development, reflecting the influence of maturing prefrontal function on visual categorization. The aim of the current study is two-fold: (a) to examine the developmental trajectory of rule-based auditory category learning from childhood through adolescence, into early adulthood; and (b) to examine the extent to which individual differences in rule-based category learning relate to individual differences in executive function. Sixty participants with normal hearing, 20 children (age range, 7–12), 21 adolescents (age range, 13–19), and 19 young adults (age range, 20–23), learned to categorize novel dynamic ripple sounds using trial-by-trial feedback. The spectrotemporally modulated ripple sounds are considered the auditory equivalent of the well-studied Gabor patches in the visual domain. Results revealed that auditory categorization accuracy improved with age, with young adults outperforming children and adolescents. Computational modeling analyses indicated that the use of the task-optimal strategy (i.e. a conjunctive rule-based learning strategy) improved with age. Notably, individual differences in executive flexibility significantly predicted auditory category learning success. The current findings demonstrate a protracted development of rule-based auditory categorization. The results further suggest that executive flexibility coupled with perceptual processes play important roles in successful rule-based auditory category learning. PMID:26491987

Child Marriage and Intimate Partner Violence in Rural Bangladesh: A Longitudinal Multilevel Analysis.

PubMed

Yount, Kathryn M; Crandall, AliceAnn; Cheong, Yuk Fai; Osypuk, Theresa L; Bates, Lisa M; Naved, Ruchira T; Schuler, Sidney Ruth

2016-12-01

Child marriage (before age 18) is a risk factor for intimate partner violence (IPV) against women. Worldwide, Bangladesh has the highest prevalence of IPV and very early child marriage (before age 15). How the community prevalence of very early child marriage influences a woman's risk of IPV is unknown. Using panel data (2013-2014) from 3,355 women first married 4-12 years prior in 77 Bangladeshi villages, we tested the protective effect of a woman's later first marriage (at age 18 or older), the adverse effect of a higher village prevalence of very early child marriage, and whether any protective effect of a woman's later first marriage was diminished or reversed in villages where very early child marriage was more prevalent. Almost one-half (44.5 %) of women reported incident physical IPV, and 78.9 % had married before age 18. The village-level incidence of physical IPV ranged from 11.4 % to 75.0 %; the mean age at first marriage ranged from 14.8 to 18.0 years. The mean village-level prevalence of very early child marriage ranged from 3.9 % to 51.9 %. In main-effects models, marrying at 18 or later protected against physical IPV, and more prevalent very early child marriage before age 15 was a risk factor. The interaction of individual later marriage and the village prevalence of very early child marriage was positive; thus, the likely protective effect of marrying later was negated in villages where very early child marriage was prevalent. Collectively reducing very early child marriage may be needed to protect women from IPV.

Major zircon megacryst suites of the Indo-Pacific lithospheric margin (ZIP) and their petrogenetic and regional implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sutherland, Lin; Graham, Ian; Yaxley, Gregory; Armstrong, Richard; Giuliani, Gaston; Hoskin, Paul; Nechaev, Victor; Woodhead, Jon

2016-04-01

Zircon megacrysts (± gem corundum) appear in basalt fields of Indo-Pacific origin over a 12,000 km zone (ZIP) along West Pacific continental margins. Age-dating, trace element, oxygen and hafnium isotope studies on representative zircons (East Australia-Asia) indicate diverse magmatic sources. The U-Pb (249 to 1 Ma) and zircon fission track (ZFT) ages (65 to 1 Ma) suggest thermal annealing during later basalt transport, with < 1 to 203 Ma gaps between the U-Pb and ZFT ages. Magmatic growth zonation and Zr/Hf ratios (0.01-0.02) suggest alkaline magmatic sources, while Ti—in—zircon thermometry suggests that most zircons crystallized within ranges between 550 and 830 °C. Chondrite-normalised multi-element plots show variable enrichment patterns, mostly without marked Eu depletion, indicating little plagioclase fractionation in source melts. Key elements and ratios matched against zircons from magmatic rocks suggest a range of ultramafic to felsic source melts. Zircon O-isotope ratios (δ18O in the range 4 to 11‰) and initial Hf isotope ratios (ɛHf in the range +2 to +14) encompass ranges for both mantle and crustal melts. Calculated Depleted Mantle (TDM 0.03-0.56 Ga) and Crustal Residence (0.20-1.02 Ga) model ages suggest several mantle events, continental break-ups (Rodinia and Gondwana) and convergent margin collisions left imprints in the zircon source melts. East Australian ZIP sites reflect prolonged intraplate magmatism (~85 Ma), often during times of fast-migrating lithosphere. In contrast, East Asian-Russian ZIP sites reflect later basaltic magmatism (<40 Ma), often linked to episodes of back-arc rifting and spreading, slow-migrating lithosphere and slab subduction.

Are Recommended Doses of Acetaminophen Effective for Children Aged 2 to 3 Years? A Pharmacokinetic Modeling Answer.

PubMed

Abourbih, Daniel Asher; Gosselin, Sophie; Villeneuve, Eric; Kazim, Sara

2016-01-01

Acetaminophen (APAP) elixir is a widely used pediatric antipyretic medication. It has been shown that up to 30% of febrile children presenting to a large urban pediatric emergency department received inadequate APAP dosages at home with errors primarily due to age-based dosing. Parental education material in the form of weight-based dosing guides has been proposed; however, validation of current recommended APAP dosages using pharmacokinetic models is needed. This study used a mathematical model of APAP absorption to predict plasma concentrations and to compare them with the range required to reach and achieve antipyresis (10-20 μg/mL). A common APAP preparation (Children's Tylenol Elixir) was tested (children aged 2-3 years, 10.9-15.9 kg). The manufacturer's suggested dose of 160 mg was compared with the standard 10 to 15 mg/kg dose range. The model predicts a peak plasma concentration between 6.38 and 8.55 μg/mL for 10 mg/kg dose and 9.57 and 12.8 μg/mL for 15 mg/kg dose. The manufacturer's suggested dose of 160 mg was tested across the limits of the weight range (10.9-15.9 kg). A peak plasma concentration between 9.36 and 12.6 μg/mL was found for the lower weight limit (10.9 kg child) and 6.42 to 8.61 μg/mL for the upper weight limit (15.9 kg child). With the use of this model, the 10 mg/kg dose does not reach the plasma concentration value for antipyresis (10-20 μg/mL), whereas 15 mg/kg is adequate only if assuming a greater absorption constant. The 160 mg dose is effective only for children weighing 10.9 kg. Individual differences in drug bioavailability, volume of distribution, and absorption/elimination constants undoubtedly exist, and future studies directly measuring plasma APAP concentration and pharmacokinetics are needed. However, these results indicate that dosages for APAP in children should be weight based and manufacturers should review their dosing recommendations.

The Prototypical Young L/T-Transition Dwarf HD 203030B Likely Has Planetary Mass

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miles-Páez, Paulo A.; Metchev, Stanimir; Luhman, Kevin L.; Marengo, Massimo; Hulsebus, Alan

2017-12-01

Upon its discovery in 2006, the young L7.5 companion to the solar analog HD 203030 was found to be ≈ 200 K cooler than older late-L dwarfs, which is quite unusual. HD 203030B offered the first clear indication that the effective temperature at the L-to-T spectral type transition depends on surface gravity: now a well-known characteristic of low-gravity ultra-cool dwarfs. An initial age analysis of the G8V primary star indicated that the system was 130-400 Myr old, and so the companion would be between 12 and 31 {M}{Jup}. Using moderate-resolution near-infrared spectra of HD 203030B, we now find features of very low gravity comparable to those of 10-150 Myr old L7-L8 dwarfs. We also obtained more accurate near-infrared and Spitzer/IRAC photometry, and we find a {(J-K)}{MKO} color of 2.56 ± 0.13 mag—comparable to those observed in other young planetary-mass objects—and a luminosity of log({L}{bol}/{L}⊙ ) = -4.75 ± 0.04 dex. We further re-assess the evidence for the young age of the host star, HD 203030, with a more comprehensive analysis of the photometry and updated stellar activity measurements and age calibrations. Summarizing the age diagnostics for both components of the binary, we adopt an age of 100 Myr for HD 203030B and an age range of 30-150 Myr. Using cloudy evolutionary models, the new companion age range and luminosity result in a mass of 11 {M}{Jup} with a range of 8-15 {M}{Jup}, and an effective temperature of 1040 ± 50 K.

Modelling Conceptual Development: A computational Account of Conservation Learning

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-02-28

6 year-old age range are unable to obtain specific quantitative values for larger sets of objects e.g. (Gelman & Gallistel , 1978). 3. Children who...Piagetian concepts. In J.H. Flavell & E.M. Markman (Eds.), Handbook of Child Psychology(Fourth ed.). New York: Wiley. Gelman, R. & Gallistel , R.C. (1978

Consequences of slow growth for 230Th/U dating of Quaternary opals, Yucca Mountain, NV, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Neymark, L.A.; Paces, J.B.

2000-01-01

Thermal ionization mass-spectrometry 234U/238U and 230Th/238U data are reported for uranium-rich opals coating fractures and cavities within the silicic tuffs forming Yucca Mountain, NV, the potential site of a high-level radioactive waste repository. High uranium concentrations (up to 207 ppm) and extremely high 230Th/232Th activity ratios (up to about 106) make microsamples of these opals suitable for precise 230Th/U dating. Conventional 230Th/U ages range from 40 to greater than 600 ka, and initial 234U/238U activity ratios between 1.03 and 8.2. Isotopic evidence indicates that the opals have not experienced uranium mobility; however, wide variations in apparent ages and initial 234U/238U ratios for separate subsamples of the same outermost mineral surfaces, positive correlation between ages and sample weights, and negative correlation between 230Th/U ages and calculated initial 234U/238U are inconsistent with the assumption that all minerals in a given subsample was deposited instantaneously. The data are more consistent with a conceptual model of continuous deposition where secondary mineral growth has occurred at a constant, slow rate up to the present. This model assumes that individual subsamples represent mixtures of older and younger material, and that calculations using the resulting isotope ratios reflect an average age. Ages calculated using the continuous-deposition model for opals imply average mineral growth rates of less than 5 mm/m.y. The model of continuous deposition also predicts discordance between ages obtained using different radiometric methods for the same subsample. Differences in half-lives will result in younger apparent ages for the shorter-lived isotope due to the greater influence of younger materials continuously added to mineral surfaces. Discordant 14C, 230Th/U and U-Pb ages obtained from outermost mineral surfaces at Yucca Mountain support this model. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

An Age-Structured Extension to the Vectorial Capacity Model

PubMed Central

Novoseltsev, Vasiliy N.; Michalski, Anatoli I.; Novoseltseva, Janna A.; Yashin, Anatoliy I.; Carey, James R.; Ellis, Alicia M.

2012-01-01

Background Vectorial capacity and the basic reproductive number (R0) have been instrumental in structuring thinking about vector-borne pathogen transmission and how best to prevent the diseases they cause. One of the more important simplifying assumptions of these models is age-independent vector mortality. A growing body of evidence indicates that insect vectors exhibit age-dependent mortality, which can have strong and varied affects on pathogen transmission dynamics and strategies for disease prevention. Methodology/Principal Findings Based on survival analysis we derived new equations for vectorial capacity and R0 that are valid for any pattern of age-dependent (or age–independent) vector mortality and explore the behavior of the models across various mortality patterns. The framework we present (1) lays the groundwork for an extension and refinement of the vectorial capacity paradigm by introducing an age-structured extension to the model, (2) encourages further research on the actuarial dynamics of vectors in particular and the relationship of vector mortality to pathogen transmission in general, and (3) provides a detailed quantitative basis for understanding the relative impact of reductions in vector longevity compared to other vector-borne disease prevention strategies. Conclusions/Significance Accounting for age-dependent vector mortality in estimates of vectorial capacity and R0 was most important when (1) vector densities are relatively low and the pattern of mortality can determine whether pathogen transmission will persist; i.e., determines whether R0 is above or below 1, (2) vector population growth rate is relatively low and there are complex interactions between birth and death that differ fundamentally from birth-death relationships with age-independent mortality, and (3) the vector exhibits complex patterns of age-dependent mortality and R0∼1. A limiting factor in the construction and evaluation of new age-dependent mortality models is the paucity of data characterizing vector mortality patterns, particularly for free ranging vectors in the field. PMID:22724022

Optimizing selective cutting strategies for maximum carbon stocks and yield of Moso bamboo forest using BIOME-BGC model.

PubMed

Mao, Fangjie; Zhou, Guomo; Li, Pingheng; Du, Huaqiang; Xu, Xiaojun; Shi, Yongjun; Mo, Lufeng; Zhou, Yufeng; Tu, Guoqing

2017-04-15

The selective cutting method currently used in Moso bamboo forests has resulted in a reduction of stand productivity and carbon sequestration capacity. Given the time and labor expense involved in addressing this problem manually, simulation using an ecosystem model is the most suitable approach. The BIOME-BGC model was improved to suit managed Moso bamboo forests, which was adapted to include age structure, specific ecological processes and management measures of Moso bamboo forest. A field selective cutting experiment was done in nine plots with three cutting intensities (high-intensity, moderate-intensity and low-intensity) during 2010-2013, and biomass of these plots was measured for model validation. Then four selective cutting scenarios were simulated by the improved BIOME-BGC model to optimize the selective cutting timings, intervals, retained ages and intensities. The improved model matched the observed aboveground carbon density and yield of different plots, with a range of relative error from 9.83% to 15.74%. The results of different selective cutting scenarios suggested that the optimal selective cutting measure should be cutting 30% culms of age 6, 80% culms of age 7, and all culms thereafter (above age 8) in winter every other year. The vegetation carbon density and harvested carbon density of this selective cutting method can increase by 74.63% and 21.5%, respectively, compared with the current selective cutting measure. The optimized selective cutting measure developed in this study can significantly promote carbon density, yield, and carbon sink capacity in Moso bamboo forests. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

SPIN EVOLUTION OF ACCRETING YOUNG STARS. II. EFFECT OF ACCRETION-POWERED STELLAR WINDS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Matt, Sean P.; Pinzon, Giovanni; Greene, Thomas P.

2012-01-20

We present a model for the rotational evolution of a young, solar-mass star interacting magnetically with an accretion disk. As in a previous paper (Paper I), the model includes changes in the star's mass and radius as it descends the Hayashi track, a decreasing accretion rate, and a prescription for the angular momentum transfer between the star and disk. Paper I concluded that, for the relatively strong magnetic coupling expected in real systems, additional processes are necessary to explain the existence of slowly rotating pre-main-sequence stars. In the present paper, we extend the stellar spin model to include the effectmore » of a spin-down torque that arises from an accretion-powered stellar wind (APSW). For a range of magnetic field strengths, accretion rates, initial spin rates, and mass outflow rates, the modeled stars exhibit rotation periods within the range of 1-10 days in the age range of 1-3 Myr. This range coincides with the bulk of the observed rotation periods, with the slow rotators corresponding to stars with the lowest accretion rates, strongest magnetic fields, and/or highest stellar wind mass outflow rates. We also make a direct, quantitative comparison between the APSW scenario and the two types of disk-locking models (namely, the X-wind and Ghosh and Lamb type models) and identify some remaining theoretical issues for understanding young star spins.« less

Spin Evolution of Accreting Young Stars. II. Effect of Accretion-powered Stellar Winds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matt, Sean P.; Pinzón, Giovanni; Greene, Thomas P.; Pudritz, Ralph E.

2012-01-01

We present a model for the rotational evolution of a young, solar-mass star interacting magnetically with an accretion disk. As in a previous paper (Paper I), the model includes changes in the star's mass and radius as it descends the Hayashi track, a decreasing accretion rate, and a prescription for the angular momentum transfer between the star and disk. Paper I concluded that, for the relatively strong magnetic coupling expected in real systems, additional processes are necessary to explain the existence of slowly rotating pre-main-sequence stars. In the present paper, we extend the stellar spin model to include the effect of a spin-down torque that arises from an accretion-powered stellar wind (APSW). For a range of magnetic field strengths, accretion rates, initial spin rates, and mass outflow rates, the modeled stars exhibit rotation periods within the range of 1-10 days in the age range of 1-3 Myr. This range coincides with the bulk of the observed rotation periods, with the slow rotators corresponding to stars with the lowest accretion rates, strongest magnetic fields, and/or highest stellar wind mass outflow rates. We also make a direct, quantitative comparison between the APSW scenario and the two types of disk-locking models (namely, the X-wind and Ghosh & Lamb type models) and identify some remaining theoretical issues for understanding young star spins.

Mathematical model of susceptibility, resistance, and resilience in the within-host dynamics between a Plasmodium parasite and the immune system.

PubMed

Yan, Yi; Adam, Brian; Galinski, Mary; C Kissinger, Jessica; Moreno, Alberto; Gutierrez, Juan B

2015-12-01

We developed a coupled age-structured partial differential equation model to capture the disease dynamics during blood-stage malaria. The addition of age structure for the parasite population, with respect to previous models, allows us to better characterize the interaction between the malaria parasite and red blood cells during infection. Here we prove that the system we propose is well-posed and there exist at least two global states. We further demonstrate that the numerical simulation of the system coincides with clinically observed outcomes of primary and secondary malaria infection. The well-posedness of this system guarantees that the behavior of the model remains smooth, bounded, and continuously dependent on initial conditions; calibration with clinical data will constrain domains of parameters and variables to physiological ranges. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Variation in probability of first reproduction of Weddell seals.

PubMed

Hadley, Gillian L; Rotella, Jay J; Garrott, Robert A; Nichols, James D

2006-09-01

1. For many species, when to begin reproduction is an important life-history decision that varies by individual and can have substantial implications for lifetime reproductive success and fitness. 2. We estimated age-specific probabilities of first-time breeding and modelled variation in these rates to determine age at first reproduction and understand why it varies in a population of Weddell seals in Erebus Bay, Antarctica. We used multistate mark-recapture modelling methods and encounter histories of 4965 known-age female seals to test predictions about age-related variation in probability of first reproduction and the effects of annual variation, cohort and population density. 3. Mean age at first reproduction in this southerly located study population (7.62 years of age, SD=1.71) was greater than age at first reproduction for a Weddell seal population at a more northerly and typical latitude for breeding Weddell seals (mean=4-5 years of age). This difference suggests that age at first reproduction may be influenced by whether a population inhabits the core or periphery of its range. 4. Age at first reproduction varied from 4 to 14 years, but there was no age by which all seals recruited to the breeding population, suggesting that individual heterogeneity exists among females in this population. 5. In the best model, the probability of breeding for the first time varied by age and year, and the amount of annual variation varied with age (average variance ratio for age-specific rates=4.3%). 6. Our results affirmed the predictions of life-history theory that age at first reproduction in long-lived mammals will be sensitive to environmental variation. In terms of life-history evolution, this variability suggests that Weddell seals display flexibility in age at first reproduction in order to maximize reproductive output under varying environmental conditions. Future analyses will attempt to test predictions regarding relationships between environmental covariates and annual variation in age at first reproduction and evaluate the relationship between age at first reproduction and lifetime reproductive success.

40Ar/39Ar thermochronologic constraints on the tectonothermal evolution of the Northern East Humboldt range metamorphic core complex, Nevada

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGrew, A.J.; Snee, L.W.

1994-01-01

The northern East Humboldt Range (NEHR) of northeastern Nevada exposes a suite of complexly deformed migmatitic, upper amphibolite-facies rocks in the footwall of the Ruby Mountains-East Humboldt Range (RM-EHR) detachment fault. New 40Ar/39Ar data on hornblende, muscovite, biotite, and potassium feldspar help constrain the kinematic and thermal evolution of this terrain during Tertiary extensional exhumation. Hornblende samples from relatively high structural levels yield discordant age spectra that suggest initial cooling during early Tertiary time (63-49 Ma). When coupled with petrological constraints indicating a strongly decompressional P-T-t path above 550??C, the hornblende data suggest that exhumation of the RM-EHR may have initiated in early Tertiary time, approximately coincident with the initial phases of unroofing in the Wood Hills immediately to the east and with the end of thrusting in the late Mesozoic to early Tertiary Sevier orogenic belt of eastern Nevada and western Utah. This temporal coincidence suggests that gravitational collapse of tectonically thickened crust in the internal zone of the Sevier belt could have driven the initial phases of unroofing. Thermal history during the final stage of exhumation of the NEHR is constrained by discordant hornblende cooling ages of 36-29 Ma from deep structural levels and biotite, muscovite, and potassium feldspar cooling ages of 27-21 Ma from a range of structural levels. Comparison of muscovite, biotite, and potassium feldspar cooling ages with previously published fission-track cooling ages implies very rapid cooling rates at temperatures below the closure temperature for muscovite (270??-350??C), but time gaps of > 7 m.y. between hornblende and mica cooling ages suggest that cooling at higher temperatures was more gradual. In addition, comparison of 40Ar 39Ar mica cooling ages with previously published fission-track apatite cooling ages suggests pronounced thermal gradients between the NEHR and adjacent areas during latest Oligocene to earliest Miocene time. Such thermal gradients could be readily explained if the RM-EHR detachment fault dipped > 30?? between the 300??C and 100??C isotherms. Finally, 40Ar 39Ar biotite cooling ages increase southward through the East Humboldt Range, compatible with northward extrapolation of a previously recognized pattern of WNW-younging biotite cooling ages from the Ruby Mountains. A simple model involving the propagation of footwall uplift in the direction of tectonic transport beneath an initially listric normal fault can explain the principle features of the Oligoce??ne to Miocene thermochronologic data set for the RM-EHR. ?? 1994.

Shock Index Correlates with Extravasation on Angiographs of Gastrointestinal Hemorrhage: A Logistics Regression Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nakasone, Yutaka, E-mail: n-yutaka@cd5.so-net.ne.jp; Ikeda, Osamu; Yamashita, Yasuyuki

We applied multivariate analysis to the clinical findings in patients with acute gastrointestinal (GI) hemorrhage and compared the relationship between these findings and angiographic evidence of extravasation. Our study population consisted of 46 patients with acute GI bleeding. They were divided into two groups. In group 1 we retrospectively analyzed 41 angiograms obtained in 29 patients (age range, 25-91 years; average, 71 years). Their clinical findings including the shock index (SI), diastolic blood pressure, hemoglobin, platelet counts, and age, which were quantitatively analyzed. In group 2, consisting of 17 patients (age range, 21-78 years; average, 60 years), we prospectively appliedmore » statistical analysis by a logistics regression model to their clinical findings and then assessed 21 angiograms obtained in these patients to determine whether our model was useful for predicting the presence of angiographic evidence of extravasation. On 18 of 41 (43.9%) angiograms in group 1 there was evidence of extravasation; in 3 patients it was demonstrated only by selective angiography. Factors significantly associated with angiographic visualization of extravasation were the SI and patient age. For differentiation between cases with and cases without angiographic evidence of extravasation, the maximum cutoff point was between 0.51 and 0.0.53. Of the 21 angiograms obtained in group 2, 13 (61.9%) showed evidence of extravasation; in 1 patient it was demonstrated only on selective angiograms. We found that in 90% of the cases, the prospective application of our model correctly predicted the angiographically confirmed presence or absence of extravasation. We conclude that in patients with GI hemorrhage, angiographic visualization of extravasation is associated with the pre-embolization SI. Patients with a high SI value should undergo study to facilitate optimal treatment planning.« less

Cenozoic erosion of the Transantarctic Mountains: A source-to-sink thermochronological study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zattin, M.; Pace, D.; Andreucci, B.; Rossetti, F.; Talarico, F. M.

2014-09-01

The formation of the Transantarctic Mountains (TAM) is strictly related to the evolution of the West Antarctic Rift system, but the timing of their exhumation is still not fully assessed. In this work, we provide new apatite fission-track data collected on the region between the Royal Society Range and the Britannia Range. Cooling ages are late Eocene-Oligocene in the center of the region but they get older both northwards and southwards. We infer that exhumation was strictly controlled by TAM-parallel fault strands that were active after the Oligocene. The Royal Society Range and the Britannia Range represent transition zones corresponding to transverse structures, probably inherited from early basement crustal discontinuities and reactivated as transfer regions during rift propagation. The exhumation of the investigated region has been then modeled and predicted thermochronological ages have been compared with detrital data from the Miocene sedimentary succession drilled in the Victoria Land Basin. Results indicate that this sector of the TAM is the most probable candidate for the source of sediments and that during the Neogene 3 km (but up to 5 km) of rocks was exhumed.

Childhood and Adult Trauma Experiences of Incarcerated Persons and Their Relationship to Adult Behavioral Health Problems and Treatment

PubMed Central

Wolff, Nancy; Shi, Jing

2012-01-01

Rates of childhood and adult trauma are high among incarcerated persons. In addition to criminality, childhood trauma is associated with the risk for emotional disorders (e.g., depression and anxiety) and co-morbid conditions such as alcohol and drug abuse and antisocial behaviors in adulthood. This paper develops rates of childhood and adult trauma and examines the impact of age-of-onset and type-specific trauma on emotional problems and behavior for a sample of incarcerated males (N~4,000). Prevalence estimates for types of trauma were constructed by age at time of trauma, race and types of behavioral health treatment received while incarcerated. HLM models were used to explore the association between childhood and adult trauma and depression, anxiety, substance use, interpersonal problems, and aggression problems (each model estimated separately and controlling for age, gender, race, time incarcerated, and index offense). Rates of physical, sexual, and emotional trauma were higher in childhood than adulthood and ranged from 44.7% (physical trauma in childhood) to 4.5% (sexual trauma in adulthood). Trauma exposure was found to be strongly associated with a wide range of behavioral problems and clinical symptoms. Given the sheer numbers of incarcerated men and the strength of these associations, targeted intervention is critical. PMID:22754481

Childhood and adult trauma experiences of incarcerated persons and their relationship to adult behavioral health problems and treatment.

PubMed

Wolff, Nancy; Shi, Jing

2012-05-01

Rates of childhood and adult trauma are high among incarcerated persons. In addition to criminality, childhood trauma is associated with the risk for emotional disorders (e.g., depression and anxiety) and co-morbid conditions such as alcohol and drug abuse and antisocial behaviors in adulthood. This paper develops rates of childhood and adult trauma and examines the impact of age-of-onset and type-specific trauma on emotional problems and behavior for a sample of incarcerated males (N~4,000). Prevalence estimates for types of trauma were constructed by age at time of trauma, race and types of behavioral health treatment received while incarcerated. HLM models were used to explore the association between childhood and adult trauma and depression, anxiety, substance use, interpersonal problems, and aggression problems (each model estimated separately and controlling for age, gender, race, time incarcerated, and index offense). Rates of physical, sexual, and emotional trauma were higher in childhood than adulthood and ranged from 44.7% (physical trauma in childhood) to 4.5% (sexual trauma in adulthood). Trauma exposure was found to be strongly associated with a wide range of behavioral problems and clinical symptoms. Given the sheer numbers of incarcerated men and the strength of these associations, targeted intervention is critical.

Reproduction in moose at their southern range limit

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ruprecht, Joel S.; Hersey, Kent R.; Hafen, Konrad; Monteith, Kevin L.; DeCesare, Nicholas J.; Kauffman, Matthew J.; MacNulty, Daniel R.

2016-01-01

Reproduction is a critical fitness component in large herbivores. Biogeographic models predict that populations occurring at the edges of the range may have compromised reproductive rates because of inferior habitat at range peripheries. When reproductive rates are chronically low, ungulate populations may lack the resiliency to rebound quickly after periods of environmental stress, and this effect may be greatest for heat-sensitive organisms at their southern range limit. To assess the demographic vulnerability of moose ( Alces alces ), we studied relationships between reproductive rates, maternal age, and rump fat in the southernmost naturally occurring moose population in North America. For prime-aged moose in our study, pregnancy rates were high (92%), but moose aged < 3 or > 9 years had low pregnancy rates (32% and 38%, respectively). The relationship between rump fat and pregnancy was nonlinear such that a threshold of at least 2mm of rump fat yielded a high probability of being pregnant midwinter. In contrast, among pregnant moose, the probability of both producing a calf and recruiting it until spring increased linearly with rump fat. We also conducted a meta-analysis of pregnancy and twinning rates for adult (≥ 2 years) moose across a latitudinal gradient to compare reproductive rates from our study to other populations in North America. Moose living at southern latitudes tended to have lower reproductive rates than those living in the core of moose range, implying that southern moose populations may be demographically more vulnerable than northern moose populations.

Thermal history and evolution of the Rio de Janeiro - Barbacena section of the southeastern Brazilian continental margin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neri Gezatt, Julia; Stephenson, Randell; Macdonald, David

2015-04-01

The transect between the Brazilian cities of Rio de Janeiro and Barbacena (22°54'S, 43°12'W and 21°13'S, 43°46'W, respectively) runs through a segment of a complex range of N-NE/S-SW trending basement units of the Ribeira Belt and southern Sao Francisco Craton, intensely reworked during the Brasiliano-Pan-African orogenic cycle. The ortho- and paragneisses in the area have metamorphic ages between 650 and 540 Ma and are intruded by pre-, syn- and post-tectonic granitic bodies. The transect, perpendicular to the strike direction of the continental margin, crosses the Serra do Mar escarpment, where the sample density is higher in order to better constrain occasional significant age changes. For logistical reasons, the 40 samples collected were processed in two separate batches for apatite fission track (AFT) analysis. The first batch comprised 19 samples, from which 15 produced fission track ages. Analyses were carried out at University College London (UCL), following standard procedures. Preliminary results for the study show AFT ages between 85.9±6.3 and 54.1±4.2 Ma, generally with younger ages close to the coast and progressively older ages towards the continental interior. The highest area sampled, around the city of Teresopolis, ranges from 740 to 1216 m above sea level and shows ages between 85.9±6.3 and 71.3±5.3 Ma. There is no evident lithological or structural distribution control. Medium track length values range from 12.57 to 13.89 µm and distributions are unimodal. Thermal history modelling was done using software QTQt. Individual sample model cooling curves can be divided into two groups: a dominant one, showing a single, slower cooling trend, and a second one with a rapid initial cooling curve, which becomes less steep around 65 Ma. In both groups the maximum paleotemperatures are around 110 Ma. The thermal history model for the first batch of samples is compatible with a single cooling event for the area following continental rifting and formation of the Atlantic Ocean. The preliminary results add to the growing thermochronological data base for the southeastern Brazilian continental margin and to deciphering the complex evolution of the region, as well as to the knowledge about the development and evolution of divergent continental margins in general. In a regional setting, AFT ages from this study, though not broadly variant locally, are distinct from basement rock AFT ages for adjacent areas produced by other authors along the southeastern continental margin. Similar ages are found at the southern Bocaina Plateau, for example, where structural control of age distribution is evident. Such regional thermal age difference has been previously attributed to continental scale structural compartmentalization throughout the continental passive margin, related to Late Cretaceous and Cenozoic reactivation of the E-W fracture zones linked to rifting of the South Atlantic. The present AFT results are compatible with Late Cretaceous reactivation but show no relation with younger events.

Employee age and tenure within organizations: relationship to workplace satisfaction and workplace climate perceptions.

PubMed

Teclaw, Robert; Osatuke, Katerine; Fishman, Jonathan; Moore, Scott C; Dyrenforth, Sue

2014-01-01

This study estimated the relative influence of age/generation and tenure on job satisfaction and workplace climate perceptions. Data from the 2004, 2008, and 2012 Veterans Health Administration All Employee Survey (sample sizes >100 000) were examined in general linear models, with demographic characteristics simultaneously included as independent variables. Ten dependent variables represented a broad range of employee attitudes. Age/generation and tenure effects were compared through partial η(2) (95% confidence interval), P value of F statistic, and overall model R(2). Demographic variables taken together were only weakly related to employee attitudes, accounting for less than 10% of the variance. Consistently across survey years, for all dependent variables, age and age-squared had very weak to no effects, whereas tenure and tenure-squared had meaningfully greater partial η(2) values. Except for 1 independent variable in 1 year, none of the partial η(2) confidence intervals for age and age-squared overlapped those of tenure and tenure-squared. Much has been made in the popular and professional press of the importance of generational differences in workplace attitudes. Empirical studies have been contradictory and therefore inconclusive. The findings reported here suggest that age/generational differences might not influence employee perceptions to the extent that human resource and management practitioners have been led to believe.

AGES OF 70 DWARFS OF THREE POPULATIONS IN THE SOLAR NEIGHBORHOOD: CONSIDERING O AND C ABUNDANCES IN STELLAR MODELS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ge, Z. S.; Bi, S. L.; Liu, K.

2016-12-20

Oxygen and carbon are important elements in stellar populations. Their behavior refers to the formation history of the stellar populations. C and O abundances would also obviously influence stellar opacities and the overall metal abundance Z . With observed high-quality spectroscopic properties, we construct stellar models with C and O elements to give more accurate ages for 70 metal-poor dwarfs, which have been determined to be high- α halo, low- α halo, and thick-disk stars. Our results show that high- α halo stars are somewhat older than low- α halo stars by around 2.0 Gyr. The thick-disk population has anmore » age range in between the two halo populations. The age distribution profiles indicate that high- α halo and low- α halo stars match the in situ accretion simulation by Zolotov et al., and the thick-disk stars might be formed in a relatively quiescent and long-lasting process. We also note that stellar ages are very sensitive to O abundance, since the ages clearly increase with increasing [O/Fe] values. Additionally, we obtain several stars with peculiar ages, including 2 young thick-disk stars and 12 stars older than the universe age.« less

Quantification of Contralateral Breast Dose and Risk Estimate of Radiation-Induced Contralateral Breast Cancer Among Young Women Using Tangential Fields and Different Modes of Breathing

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zurl, Brigitte, E-mail: brigitte.zurl@klinikum-graz.at; Stranzl, Heidi; Winkler, Peter

2013-02-01

Purpose: Whole breast irradiation with deep-inspiration breath-hold (DIBH) technique among left-sided breast cancer patients significantly reduces cardiac irradiation; however, a potential disadvantage is increased incidental irradiation of the contralateral breast. Methods and Materials: Contralateral breast dose (CBD) was calculated by comparing 400 treatment plans of 200 left-sided breast cancer patients whose tangential fields had been planned on gated and nongated CT data sets. Various anatomic and field parameters were analyzed for their impact on CBD. For a subgroup of patients (aged {<=}45 years) second cancer risk in the contralateral breast (CB) was modeled by applying the linear quadratic model, compoundmore » models, and compound models considering dose-volume information (DVH). Results: The mean CBD was significantly higher in DIBH with 0.69 Gy compared with 0.65 Gy in normal breathing (P=.01). The greatest impact on CBD was due to a shift of the inner field margin toward the CB in DIBH (mean 0.4 cm; range, 0-2), followed by field size in magnitude. Calculation with different risk models for CBC revealed values of excess relative risk/Gy ranging from 0.48-0.65 vs 0.46-0.61 for DIBH vs normal breathing, respectively. Conclusion: Contralateral breast dose, although within a low dose range, was mildly but significantly increased in 200 treatment plans generated under gated conditions, predominately due to a shift in the medial field margin. Risk modeling for CBC among women aged {<=}45 years also pointed to a higher risk when comparing DIBH with normal breathing. This risk, however, was substantially lower in the model considering DVH information. We think that clinical decisions should not be affected by this small increase in CBD with DIBH because DIBH is effective in reducing the dose to the heart in all patients.« less

Potential effects of regional pumpage on groundwater age distribution

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zinn, Brendan A.; Konikow, Leonard F.

2007-01-01

Groundwater ages estimated from environmental tracers can help calibrate groundwater flow models. Groundwater age represents a mixture of traveltimes, with the distribution of ages determined by the detailed structure of the flow field, which can be prone to significant transient variability. Effects of pumping on age distribution were assessed using direct age simulation in a hypothetical layered aquifer system. A steady state predevelopment age distribution was computed first. A well field was then introduced, and pumpage caused leakage into the confined aquifer of older water from an overlying confining unit. Large changes in simulated groundwater ages occurred in both the aquifer and the confining unit at high pumping rates, and the effects propagated a substantial distance downgradient from the wells. The range and variance of ages contributing to the well increased substantially during pumping. The results suggest that the groundwater age distribution in developed aquifers may be affected by transient leakage from low‐permeability material, such as confining units, under certain hydrogeologic conditions.

Using remotely-sensed multispectral imagery to build age models for alluvial fan surfaces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Arcy, Mitch; Mason, Philippa J.; Roda Boluda, Duna C.; Whittaker, Alexander C.; Lewis, James

2016-04-01

Accurate exposure age models are essential for much geomorphological field research, and generally depend on laboratory analyses such as radiocarbon, cosmogenic nuclide, or luminescence techniques. These approaches continue to revolutionise geomorphology, however they cannot be deployed remotely or in situ in the field. Therefore other methods are still needed for producing preliminary age models, performing relative dating of surfaces, or selecting sampling sites for the laboratory analyses above. With the widespread availability of detailed multispectral imagery, a promising approach is to use remotely-sensed data to discriminate surfaces with different ages. Here, we use new Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) multispectral imagery to characterise the reflectance of 35 alluvial fan surfaces in the semi-arid Owens Valley, California. Alluvial fans are useful landforms to date, as they are widely used to study the effects of tectonics, climate and sediment transport processes on source-to-sink sedimentation. Our target fan surfaces have all been mapped in detail in the field, and have well-constrained exposure ages ranging from modern to ~ 125 ka measured using a high density of 10Be cosmogenic nuclide samples. Despite all having similar granitic compositions, the spectral properties of these surfaces vary systematically with their exposure ages. Older surfaces demonstrate a predictable shift in reflectance across the visible and short-wave infrared spectrum. Simple calculations, such as the brightness ratios of different wavelengths, generate sensitive power law relationships with exposure age that depend on post-depositional alteration processes affecting these surfaces. We investigate what these processes might be in this dryland location, and evaluate the potential for using remotely-sensed multispectral imagery for developing surface age models. The ability to remotely sense relative exposure ages has useful implications for preliminary mapping, selecting sampling sites for laboratory-based exposure age techniques, and correlating existing age constraints to un-sampled surfaces.

The Relationship between Mono-abundance and Mono-age Stellar Populations in the Milky Way Disk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Minchev, I.; Steinmetz, M.; Chiappini, C.; Martig, M.; Anders, F.; Matijevic, G.; de Jong, R. S.

2017-01-01

Studying the Milky Way disk structure using stars in narrow bins of [Fe/H] and [α/Fe] has recently been proposed as a powerful method to understand the Galactic thick and thin disk formation. It has been assumed so far that these mono-abundance populations (MAPs) are also coeval, or mono-age, populations. Here we study this relationship for a Milky Way chemodynamical model and show that equivalence between MAPs and mono-age populations exists only for the high-[α/Fe] tail, where the chemical evolution curves of different Galactic radii are far apart. At lower [α/Fe]-values an MAP is composed of stars with a range in ages, even for small observational uncertainties and a small MAP bin size. Due to the disk inside-out formation, for these MAPs younger stars are typically located at larger radii, which results in negative radial age gradients that can be as large as 2 Gyr kpc-1. Positive radial age gradients can result for MAPs at the lowest [α/Fe] and highest [Fe/H] end. Such variations with age prevent the simple interpretation of observations for which accurate ages are not available. Studying the variation with radius of the stellar surface density and scale height in our model, we find good agreement to recent analyses of the APOGEE red-clump (RC) sample when 1-4 Gyr old stars dominate (as expected for the RC). Our results suggest that the APOGEE data are consistent with a Milky Way model for which mono-age populations flare for all ages. We propose observational tests for the validity of our predictions and argue that using accurate age measurements, such as from asteroseismology, is crucial for putting constraints on Galactic formation and evolution.

Comparing large-scale computational approaches to epidemic modeling: agent-based versus structured metapopulation models.

PubMed

Ajelli, Marco; Gonçalves, Bruno; Balcan, Duygu; Colizza, Vittoria; Hu, Hao; Ramasco, José J; Merler, Stefano; Vespignani, Alessandro

2010-06-29

In recent years large-scale computational models for the realistic simulation of epidemic outbreaks have been used with increased frequency. Methodologies adapt to the scale of interest and range from very detailed agent-based models to spatially-structured metapopulation models. One major issue thus concerns to what extent the geotemporal spreading pattern found by different modeling approaches may differ and depend on the different approximations and assumptions used. We provide for the first time a side-by-side comparison of the results obtained with a stochastic agent-based model and a structured metapopulation stochastic model for the progression of a baseline pandemic event in Italy, a large and geographically heterogeneous European country. The agent-based model is based on the explicit representation of the Italian population through highly detailed data on the socio-demographic structure. The metapopulation simulations use the GLobal Epidemic and Mobility (GLEaM) model, based on high-resolution census data worldwide, and integrating airline travel flow data with short-range human mobility patterns at the global scale. The model also considers age structure data for Italy. GLEaM and the agent-based models are synchronized in their initial conditions by using the same disease parameterization, and by defining the same importation of infected cases from international travels. The results obtained show that both models provide epidemic patterns that are in very good agreement at the granularity levels accessible by both approaches, with differences in peak timing on the order of a few days. The relative difference of the epidemic size depends on the basic reproductive ratio, R0, and on the fact that the metapopulation model consistently yields a larger incidence than the agent-based model, as expected due to the differences in the structure in the intra-population contact pattern of the approaches. The age breakdown analysis shows that similar attack rates are obtained for the younger age classes. The good agreement between the two modeling approaches is very important for defining the tradeoff between data availability and the information provided by the models. The results we present define the possibility of hybrid models combining the agent-based and the metapopulation approaches according to the available data and computational resources.

Predicting age by mining electronic medical records with deep learning characterizes differences between chronological and physiological age.

PubMed

Wang, Zichen; Li, Li; Glicksberg, Benjamin S; Israel, Ariel; Dudley, Joel T; Ma'ayan, Avi

2017-12-01

Determining the discrepancy between chronological and physiological age of patients is central to preventative and personalized care. Electronic medical records (EMR) provide rich information about the patient physiological state, but it is unclear whether such information can be predictive of chronological age. Here we present a deep learning model that uses vital signs and lab tests contained within the EMR of Mount Sinai Health System (MSHS) to predict chronological age. The model is trained on 377,686 EMR from patients of ages 18-85 years old. The discrepancy between the predicted and real chronological age is then used as a proxy to estimate physiological age. Overall, the model can predict the chronological age of patients with a standard deviation error of ∼7 years. The ages of the youngest and oldest patients were more accurately predicted, while patients of ages ranging between 40 and 60 years were the least accurately predicted. Patients with the largest discrepancy between their physiological and chronological age were further inspected. The patients predicted to be significantly older than their chronological age have higher systolic blood pressure, higher cholesterol, damaged liver, and anemia. In contrast, patients predicted to be younger than their chronological age have lower blood pressure and shorter stature among other indicators; both groups display lower weight than the population average. Using information from ∼10,000 patients from the entire cohort who have been also profiled with SNP arrays, genome-wide association study (GWAS) uncovers several novel genetic variants associated with aging. In particular, significant variants were mapped to genes known to be associated with inflammation, hypertension, lipid metabolism, height, and increased lifespan in mice. Several genes with missense mutations were identified as novel candidate aging genes. In conclusion, we demonstrate how EMR data can be used to assess overall health via a scale that is based on deviation from the patient's predicted chronological age. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Another stage of development: Biological degeneracy and the study of bodily ageing.

PubMed

Mason, Paul H; Maleszka, Ryszard; Dominguez D, Juan F

2017-04-01

Ageing is a poorly understood process of human development mired by a scientific approach that struggles to piece together distributed variable factors involved in ongoing transformations of living systems. Reconfiguring existing research paradigms, we review the concept of 'degeneracy', which has divergent popular and technical definitions. The technical meaning of degeneracy refers to the structural diversity underlying functional plasticity. Degeneracy is a distributed system property that can be observed within individual brains or across different brains. For example, dementias with similar behavioural anomalies can result from a diverse range of cellular "faults", which is an example of degeneracy because the symptoms are similar in spite of different underlying mechanisms. Degeneracy is a valuable epistemological tool that can transformatively enhance scientific models of bodily ageing. We propose that movement science is one of the first areas that can productively integrate degeneracy into models of bodily ageing. We also propose model organisms such as eusocial honey bees in which degeneracy can be studied at the molecular and cellular level. Developing a vocabulary for thinking about how distributed variable factors are interlinked is important if we are to understand bodily ageing not as a single entity, but as the heterogeneous construction of changing biological, social, and environmental processes. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Age gradients in the stellar populations of massive star forming regions based on a new stellar chronometer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Getman, Konstantin V.; Feigelson, Eric D.; Kuhn, Michael A.

2014-06-01

A major impediment to understanding star formation in massive star-forming regions (MSFRs) is the absence of a reliable stellar chronometer to unravel their complex star formation histories. We present a new estimation of stellar ages using a new method that employs near-infrared (NIR) and X-ray photometry, Age {sub JX} . Stellar masses are derived from X-ray luminosities using the L{sub X} -M relation from the Taurus cloud. J-band luminosities are compared to mass-dependent pre-main-sequence (PMS) evolutionary models to estimate ages. Age {sub JX} is sensitive to a wide range of evolutionary stages, from disk-bearing stars embedded in a cloud tomore » widely dispersed older PMS stars. The Massive Young Star-Forming Complex Study in Infrared and X-ray (MYStIX) project characterizes 20 OB-dominated MSFRs using X-ray, mid-infrared, and NIR catalogs. The Age {sub JX} method has been applied to 5525 out of 31,784 MYStIX Probable Complex Members. We provide a homogeneous set of median ages for over 100 subclusters in 15 MSFRs; median subcluster ages range between 0.5 Myr and 5 Myr. The important science result is the discovery of age gradients across MYStIX regions. The wide MSFR age distribution appears as spatially segregated structures with different ages. The Age {sub JX} ages are youngest in obscured locations in molecular clouds, intermediate in revealed stellar clusters, and oldest in distributed populations. The NIR color index J – H, a surrogate measure of extinction, can serve as an approximate age predictor for young embedded clusters.« less

Tremor severity and age: a cross-sectional, population-based study of 2,524 young and midlife normal adults.

PubMed

Louis, Elan D; Hafeman, Danella; Parvez, Faruque; Liu, Xinhua; Alcalay, Roy N; Islam, Tariqul; Ahmed, Alauddin; Siddique, Abu Bakar; Patwary, Tazul Islam; Melkonian, Stephanie; Argos, Maria; Levy, Diane; Ahsan, Habibul

2011-07-01

Mild action tremor occurs in most normal people. Yet this tremor mainly has been studied within the context of advanced age rather than among the vast bulk of adults who are not elderly. Whether this tremor worsens during young and middle age is unknown. Using cross-sectional data from a large population-based study of young and midlife normal adults (age range, 18-60 years), we assessed whether increasing age is associated with more severe action tremor. Two thousand five hundred and twenty-four adults in Araihazar, Bangladesh, drew an Archimedes spiral with each hand. Tremor in spirals was rated (0-3) by a blinded neurologist, and a spiral score (range, 0-6) was assigned. Spiral score was correlated with age (r = 0.06, P = .004). With each advancing decade, the spiral score increased (P = .002) so that the spiral score in participants in the highest age group (age 60) was approximately twice that of participants in the youngest age group (age 18-19); P = .003. In the regression model that adjusted for potential confounders (sex, cigarettes, medications, asthma inhalers, and tea and betel nut use), spiral score was associated with age (P = .0045). In this cross-sectional, population-based study of more than 2500 young and midlife normal adults, there was a clear association between age and tremor severity. Although the magnitude of the correlation coefficient was modest, tremor severity was higher with each passing decade. These data suggest that age-dependent increase in tremor amplitude is not restricted to older people but occurs in all adult age groups. Copyright © 2011 Movement Disorder Society.

Population Pharmacokinetics of Intravenous Paracetamol (Acetaminophen) in Preterm and Term Neonates: Model Development and External Evaluation.

PubMed

Cook, Sarah F; Roberts, Jessica K; Samiee-Zafarghandy, Samira; Stockmann, Chris; King, Amber D; Deutsch, Nina; Williams, Elaine F; Allegaert, Karel; Wilkins, Diana G; Sherwin, Catherine M T; van den Anker, John N

2016-01-01

The aims of this study were to develop a population pharmacokinetic model for intravenous paracetamol in preterm and term neonates and to assess the generalizability of the model by testing its predictive performance in an external dataset. Nonlinear mixed-effects models were constructed from paracetamol concentration-time data in NONMEM 7.2. Potential covariates included body weight, gestational age, postnatal age, postmenstrual age, sex, race, total bilirubin, and estimated glomerular filtration rate. An external dataset was used to test the predictive performance of the model through calculation of bias, precision, and normalized prediction distribution errors. The model-building dataset included 260 observations from 35 neonates with a mean gestational age of 33.6 weeks [standard deviation (SD) 6.6]. Data were well-described by a one-compartment model with first-order elimination. Weight predicted paracetamol clearance and volume of distribution, which were estimated as 0.348 L/h (5.5 % relative standard error; 30.8 % coefficient of variation) and 2.46 L (3.5 % relative standard error; 14.3 % coefficient of variation), respectively, at the mean subject weight of 2.30 kg. An external evaluation was performed on an independent dataset that included 436 observations from 60 neonates with a mean gestational age of 35.6 weeks (SD 4.3). The median prediction error was 10.1 % [95 % confidence interval (CI) 6.1-14.3] and the median absolute prediction error was 25.3 % (95 % CI 23.1-28.1). Weight predicted intravenous paracetamol pharmacokinetics in neonates ranging from extreme preterm to full-term gestational status. External evaluation suggested that these findings should be generalizable to other similar patient populations.

Population Pharmacokinetics of Intravenous Paracetamol (Acetaminophen) in Preterm and Term Neonates: Model Development and External Evaluation

PubMed Central

Cook, Sarah F.; Roberts, Jessica K.; Samiee-Zafarghandy, Samira; Stockmann, Chris; King, Amber D.; Deutsch, Nina; Williams, Elaine F.; Allegaert, Karel; Sherwin, Catherine M. T.; van den Anker, John N.

2017-01-01

Objectives The aims of this study were to develop a population pharmacokinetic model for intravenous paracetamol in preterm and term neonates and to assess the generalizability of the model by testing its predictive performance in an external dataset. Methods Nonlinear mixed-effects models were constructed from paracetamol concentration–time data in NONMEM 7.2. Potential covariates included body weight, gestational age, postnatal age, postmenstrual age, sex, race, total bilirubin, and estimated glomerular filtration rate. An external dataset was used to test the predictive performance of the model through calculation of bias, precision, and normalized prediction distribution errors. Results The model-building dataset included 260 observations from 35 neonates with a mean gestational age of 33.6 weeks [standard deviation (SD) 6.6]. Data were well-described by a one-compartment model with first-order elimination. Weight predicted paracetamol clearance and volume of distribution, which were estimated as 0.348 L/h (5.5 % relative standard error; 30.8 % coefficient of variation) and 2.46 L (3.5 % relative standard error; 14.3 % coefficient of variation), respectively, at the mean subject weight of 2.30 kg. An external evaluation was performed on an independent dataset that included 436 observations from 60 neonates with a mean gestational age of 35.6 weeks (SD 4.3). The median prediction error was 10.1 % [95 % confidence interval (CI) 6.1–14.3] and the median absolute prediction error was 25.3 % (95 % CI 23.1–28.1). Conclusions Weight predicted intravenous paracetamol pharmacokinetics in neonates ranging from extreme preterm to full-term gestational status. External evaluation suggested that these findings should be generalizable to other similar patient populations. PMID:26201306

Hydrogeologic Investigation, Water Chemistry Analysis, and Model Delineation of contributing Areas for City of Tallahassee Public-Supply Wells, Tallahassee, Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Davis, J. Hal; Katz, Brian G.

2007-01-01

Ground water from the Upper Floridan aquifer is the sole source of water supply for Tallahassee, Florida, and the surrounding area. The City of Tallahassee (the City) currently operates 28 water-supply wells; 26 wells are distributed throughout the City and 2 are located in Woodville, Florida. Most of these wells yield an ample supply of potable water; however, water from several wells has low levels of tetrachloroethylene (PCE). The City removes the PCE from the water by passing it through granular-activated carbon units before distribution. To ensure that water-supply wells presently free of contamination remain clean, it is necessary to understand the ground-water flow system in sufficient detail to protect the contributing areas. Ground-water samples collected from four public-supply wells were analyzed for tritium (3H), chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6). Using data for the CFC compounds, apparent ground-water ages ranged from 7 to 31 years. For SF6, the apparent ages tended to be about 5 to 10 years younger than those from CFCs. Apparent ages based on the tritium/tritiogenic helium-3 (3H/3Hetrit) method ranged from 26 to 33 years. The three dating methods indicate that the apparent age of ground water generally decreases from northern to southern Leon County. This southward trend of decreasing ages is consistent with increasing amounts of recharge that occur as ground water moves from north to south. The ground-water age data derived by geochemical and tracer analyses were used in combination with the flow model and particle tracking to determine an effective porosity for the Hawthorn clays and Upper Floridan aquifer. The effective porosities for the Upper Floridan aquifer that resulted in best model matches were averaged to produce an effective porosity of 7 percent, and the effective porosities for the Hawthorn clays that resulted in a match were averaged to produce an effective porosity of 22 percent. Probabilistic contributing areas were determined for 26 City wells using MODFLOW and MODPATH. For each probabilistic contributing area delineated, the model was run 100 times and the results were analyzed statistically. For each of the 100 runs, a different hydraulic conductivity for each of the zones was assigned to the Upper Floridan aquifer. The hydraulic conductivities were generated randomly assuming a lognormal probability distribution; the mean of the distribution was equal to the hydraulic conductivity from the calibrated model. The 5-year time-dependent capture zones (TDCZs), assuming effective porosities of 0.1, 1, and 7 percent for four representative wells, were delineated. The higher probabilities of capture (greater than 40, 60, and 80 percent) were similar for all effective porosities, and the TDCZ delineated using a 7-percent porosity was slightly smaller; the lower probabilities of capture (greater than 10 and 20 percent) showed a large range of variability.

Stochastic epigenetic mutations (DNA methylation) increase exponentially in human aging and correlate with X chromosome inactivation skewing in females.

PubMed

Gentilini, Davide; Garagnani, Paolo; Pisoni, Serena; Bacalini, Maria Giulia; Calzari, Luciano; Mari, Daniela; Vitale, Giovanni; Franceschi, Claudio; Di Blasio, Anna Maria

2015-08-01

In this study we applied a new analytical strategy to investigate the relations between stochastic epigenetic mutations (SEMs) and aging. We analysed methylation levels through the Infinium HumanMethylation27 and HumanMethylation450 BeadChips in a population of 178 subjects ranging from 3 to 106 years. For each CpG probe, epimutated subjects were identified as the extreme outliers with methylation level exceeding three times interquartile ranges the first quartile (Q1-(3 x IQR)) or the third quartile (Q3+(3 x IQR)). We demonstrated that the number of SEMs was low in childhood and increased exponentially during aging. Using the HUMARA method, skewing of X chromosome inactivation (XCI) was evaluated in heterozygotes women. Multivariate analysis indicated a significant correlation between log(SEMs) and degree of XCI skewing after adjustment for age (β = 0.41; confidence interval: 0.14, 0.68; p-value = 0.0053). The PATH analysis tested the complete model containing the variables: skewing of XCI, age, log(SEMs) and overall CpG methylation. After adjusting for the number of epimutations we failed to confirm the well reported correlation between skewing of XCI and aging. This evidence might suggest that the known correlation between XCI skewing and aging could not be a direct association but mediated by the number of SEMs.

The patellofemoral joint: do age and gender affect skeletal maturation of the osseous morphology in children?

PubMed

Kim, Hee Kyung; Shiraj, Sahar; Anton, Christopher; Horn, Paul S

2014-02-01

The osseous morphology of the patellofemoral joint is an independent factor that affects the biomechanics of patellofemoral instability. The purpose of this study is to determine age- and gender-related differences in the osseous morphology of the patellofemoral joint in children during skeletal maturation. This study was approved by the institutional review board and was HIPAA-compliant. We included 97 children and young adults (age range 5-22 years; 51 girls and 46 boys, mean ages 14.3 years and 13.7 years, respectively). We studied 1.5-T knee MR exams, measuring the osseous morphology of the patellofemoral joint (lateral trochlear inclination, trochlear facet asymmetry, trochlear depth, patellar height ratio, tibial tubercle-trochlear groove distance, and lateral patellofemoral angle) for each MR exam. We compared measurements to published values for patellofemoral instability. Physeal patency (open or closing/closed) was determined on MR. We assessed the associations between MR osseous measurements and gender, age and physeal patency using Wilcoxon rank sum test and least square means regression models. The osseous patellofemoral joint morphology measurements were all within a normal range. There were no significant correlations between MR osseous measurements and age, gender or physeal patency. During skeletal maturation, age and gender do not affect the osseous morphology or congruency of the patellofemoral joint.

Asynchrony of senescence among phenotypic traits in a wild mammal population

PubMed Central

Hayward, Adam D.; Moorad, Jacob; Regan, Charlotte E.; Berenos, Camillo; Pilkington, Jill G.; Pemberton, Josephine M.; Nussey, Daniel H.

2015-01-01

The degree to which changes in lifespan are coupled to changes in senescence in different physiological systems and phenotypic traits is a central question in biogerontology. It is underpinned by deeper biological questions about whether or not senescence is a synchronised process, or whether levels of synchrony depend on species or environmental context. Understanding how natural selection shapes patterns of synchrony in senescence across physiological systems and phenotypic traits demands the longitudinal study of many phenotypes under natural conditions. Here, we examine the patterns of age-related variation in late adulthood in a wild population of Soay sheep (Ovis aries) that have been the subject of individual-based monitoring for thirty years. We examined twenty different phenotypic traits in both males and females, encompassing vital rates (survival and fecundity), maternal reproductive performance (offspring birth weight, birth date and survival), male rutting behaviour, home range measures, parasite burdens, and body mass. We initially quantified age-related variation in each trait having controlled for annual variation in the environment, among-individual variation and selective disappearance effects. We then standardised our age-specific trait means and tested whether age trajectories could be meaningfully grouped according to sex or the type of trait. Whilst most traits showed age-related declines in later life, we found striking levels of asynchrony both within and between the sexes. Of particular note, female fecundity and reproductive performance declined with age, but male annual reproductive success did not. We also discovered that whilst home range size and quality decline with age in females, home range size increases with age in males. Our findings highlight the complexity of phenotypic ageing under natural conditions and, along with emerging data from other wild populations and laboratory models, suggest that the long-standing hypothesis within evolutionary biology that fitness-related traits should senesce in a synchronous manner is seriously flawed. PMID:26277618

A Reevaluation of the Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision Scale-Up Plan in Zimbabwe.

PubMed

Awad, Susanne F; Sgaier, Sema K; Ncube, Gertrude; Xaba, Sinokuthemba; Mugurungi, Owen M; Mhangara, Mutsa M; Lau, Fiona K; Mohamoud, Yousra A; Abu-Raddad, Laith J

2015-01-01

The voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) program in Zimbabwe aims to circumcise 80% of males aged 13-29 by 2017. We assessed the impact of actual VMMC scale-up to date and evaluated the impact of potential alterations to the program to enhance program efficiency, through prioritization of subpopulations. We implemented a recently developed analytical approach: the age-structured mathematical (ASM) model and accompanying three-level conceptual framework to assess the impact of VMMC as an intervention. By September 2014, 364,185 males were circumcised, an initiative that is estimated to avert 40,301 HIV infections by 2025. Through age-group prioritization, the number of VMMCs needed to avert one infection (effectiveness) ranged between ten (20-24 age-group) and 53 (45-49 age-group). The cost per infection averted ranged between $811 (20-24 age-group) and $5,518 (45-49 age-group). By 2025, the largest reductions in HIV incidence rate (up to 27%) were achieved by prioritizing 10-14, 15-19, or 20-24 year old. The greatest program efficiency was achieved by prioritizing 15-24, 15-29, or 15-34 year old. Prioritizing males 13-29 year old was programmatically efficient, but slightly inferior to the 15-24, 15-29, or 15-34 age groups. Through geographic prioritization, effectiveness varied from 9-12 VMMCs per infection averted across provinces. Through risk-group prioritization, effectiveness ranged from one (highest sexual risk-group) to 60 (lowest sexual risk-group) VMMCs per infection averted. The current VMMC program plan in Zimbabwe is targeting an efficient and impactful age bracket (13-29 year old), but program efficiency can be improved by prioritizing a subset of males for demand creation and service availability. The greatest program efficiency can be attained by prioritizing young sexually active males and males whose sexual behavior puts them at higher risk for acquiring HIV.

Demonstration of Orbit Determination for the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter Using One-Way Laser Ranging Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bauer, S.; Hussmann, H.; Oberst, J.; Dirkx, D.; Mao, D.; Neumann, G. A.; Mazarico, E.; Torrence, M. H.; McGarry, J. F.; Smith, D. E.;

Impact Response Comparison Between Parametric Human Models and Postmortem Human Subjects with a Wide Range of Obesity Levels.

PubMed

Zhang, Kai; Cao, Libo; Wang, Yulong; Hwang, Eunjoo; Reed, Matthew P; Forman, Jason; Hu, Jingwen

2017-10-01

Field data analyses have shown that obesity significantly increases the occupant injury risks in motor vehicle crashes, but the injury assessment tools for people with obesity are largely lacking. The objectives of this study were to use a mesh morphing method to rapidly generate parametric finite element models with a wide range of obesity levels and to evaluate their biofidelity against impact tests using postmortem human subjects (PMHS). Frontal crash tests using three PMHS seated in a vehicle rear seat compartment with body mass index (BMI) from 24 to 40 kg/m 2 were selected. To develop the human models matching the PMHS geometry, statistical models of external body shape, rib cage, pelvis, and femur were applied to predict the target geometry using age, sex, stature, and BMI. A mesh morphing method based on radial basis functions was used to rapidly morph a baseline human model into the target geometry. The model-predicted body excursions and injury measures were compared to the PMHS tests. Comparisons of occupant kinematics and injury measures between the tests and simulations showed reasonable correlations across the wide range of BMI levels. The parametric human models have the capability to account for the obesity effects on the occupant impact responses and injury risks. © 2017 The Obesity Society.

Characterizing the recovery trajectories of knee range of motion for one year after total knee replacement.

PubMed

Mehta, Saurabh; Rigney, Andrew; Webb, Kyle; Wesney, Jacob; Stratford, Paul W; Shuler, Franklin D; Oliashirazi, Ali

2018-06-13

Retrospective analysis of routinely collected clinical data. This study modeled the recovery in knee flexion and extension range of motion (ROM) over 1 year after total knee replacement (TKR). Recovery after TKR has been characterized for self-reported pain and functional status. Literature describing target knee ROM at different follow-up periods after TKR is scarce. Data were extracted for patients who had undergone TKR at a tertiary care hospital at 2, 8, 12, 26, and 52 weeks after TKR. A linear mixed-effects growth model was constructed that investigated the following covariates age, sex, pre-TKR range, body mass index, duration of symptoms, and their interaction with weeks post TKR. Of the 559 patients included (age 64.8 ± 8.5 years), 370 were women and 189 were men. Knee ROM showed the greatest change during the first 12 weeks after TKR, plateauing by 26 weeks. For an average patient, knee flexion increased from approximately 100º 2 weeks post TKR to 117º 52 weeks post TKR. Knee extension increased from approximately 3º knee flexion 2 weeks post TKR to 1º flexion 52 weeks post TKR. The results showed that the maximum gains in knee ROM should be expected within the first 12 weeks with small changes occurring up to 26 weeks after TKR. In addition, age and presurgery knee ROM are associated with the gains in knee ROM and should be factored into the estimation of expected knee ROM at a given follow-up interval after TKR.

Kinetic characteristic of phenanthrene sorption in aged soil amended with biochar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Chanyang; Kim, Yong-Seong; Hyun, Seunghun

2015-04-01

Biochar has been recently highlighted as an amendment that affects yield of the crops by increasing pH, cation exchange capacity and water retention, and reduces the lability of contaminants by increasing sorption capacity in the soil system. Biochar's physico-chemical properties, high CEC, surfaces containing abundant micropores and macropores, and various types of functional groups, play important roles in enhancing sorption capacity of contaminants. Aging through a natural weathering process might change physico-chemical properties of biochar amended in soils, which can affect the sorption behavior of contaminants. Thus, in this study, the sorption characteristics of phenanthrene (PHE) on biochar-amended soils were studied with various types of chars depending on aging time. To do this, 1) soil was amended with sludge waste char (SWC), wood char (WC), and municipal waste char (MWC) during 0, 6, and 12 month. Chars were applied to soil at 1% and 2.5% (w/w) ratio. 2) Several batch kinetic and equilibrium studies were conducted. One-compartment first order and two-compartment first order model apportioning the fraction of fast and slow sorbing were selected for kinetic models. Where, qt is PHE concentration in biochar-amended soils at each time t, qeis PHE concentration in biochar-amended soils at equilibrium. ff is fastly sorbing fraction and (1-ff) is slowly sorbing fraction. k is sorption rate constant from one-compartment first order model, k1 and k2 are sorption rate constant from two-compartment first order model, t is time (hr). The equilibrium sorption data were fitted with Fruendlich and Langmuir equation. 3) Change in physico-chemical properties of biochar-amended soils was investigated with aging time. Batch equilibrium sorption results suggested that sorbed amount of PHE on WC was greater than SWC and MWC. The more char contents added to soil, the greater sorption capacity of PHE. Sorption equilibrium was reached after 4 hours and equilibrium pH ranged from 6.5 to 8.0. Sorption capacity was reduced with aging time. From kinetic results, two-compartment first order model was more suitable than one-compartment first order model. Fast sorption site of biochar-amended soils dominated total sorption process (i.e., Fraction of fast sorption site ranged from 0.55 to 0.96). Reduced sorption capacity with aging time could be attributed to changes in physico-chemical properties of biochar-amended soils (e.g., reduced pores and increased hydrophilic carboxyl and carbonyl functional groups). Verification is FI-IR and SSA. It is assumed that biochar is a suitable material for PHE contaminated soil in order to reduce the lability of PHE. However, aging effects would lessen biochar benefit for reducing the sorption capacity of PHE by forming hydrophilic functional group and reducing pores.

Age and tectonic implications of Paleoproterozoic Deo Khe Granitoids within the Phan Si Pan Zone, Vietnam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anh, Hoang Thi Hong; Hieu, Pham Trung; Tu, Vu Le; Son, La Mai; Choi, Sung Hi; Yu, Yongjae

2015-11-01

We report the first U-Pb zircon ages of 1855-1873 Ma for the Deo Khe Granitoids (DKG) in the Phan Si Pan Zone (PSPZ) of northern Vietnam. The DKG are medium-grained two-mica granitoids predominantly composed of quartz, K-feldspar, and muscovite. Trace element analyses indicate that the DKG are enriched in large ion lithophile elements but depleted in high field strength elements. Zircons from the granitoids have negative εHf(t) values ranging from -23.6 to -17.5. The magmatic zircons from the DKG have single-stage Hf model ages (TDM1) that range from 3.3 to 2.8 Ga and their εHf(t) data all plot well below the evolution trend of 2800 Ma average juvenile mantle. Observed Hf model ages are contemporaneous with the emplacement of 2.90-2.84 Ga tonalite-trondhjemite-granodiorite (TTG) gneiss observed in a nearby Ca Vinh Complex, suggesting that PSPZ in northern Vietnam is a product of partial melting of Archean crust. A sequence of similar tectonic events including initial emplacement of TTG protolith at 2.8-2.9 Ga, metamorphic development of TTG gneiss at 1.9-2.0 Ga, and magmatic activity at 1.8-2.0 Ga are now recognized both in northern Vietnam and Yangtze block which we interpret to indicate basement rocks in northern Vietnam are similar to those found along southern China.

Factors affecting injury severity of vehicle occupants following road traffic collisions.

PubMed

Abu-Zidan, Fikri M; Eid, Hani O

2015-01-01

We aimed to define factors affecting injury severity of vehicle occupants following road traffic collisions (RTC). 422 vehicle occupants (343 males, 81.3%) with RTC-related injuries were prospectively studied over 18 months. General linear model was used to test the effect of age, gender, alcohol and drug use, time of injury, mechanism of injury, size and speed of the vehicle, position in the vehicle, seatbelt usage, and air bag deployment on the Injury Severity Score (ISS) of the vehicle occupants. The mean (range) age of patients was 28.2 (1-78) years and the mean (range) ISS was 7.9 (1-50). Front impact was the most common mechanism of injury (32.9%) followed by rollover (25.6%) and side impact (22.3%). 18.2% used seatbelts. The general linear model was highly significant and showed that mechanism of injury (p<0.0001), speed of the vehicle (p=0.02), and age of the vehicle occupant (p=0.03) significantly affected the Injury Severity Score. The mechanism of the RTC, the vehicle speed, and age of the vehicle occupant are the most important factors affecting the severity of road traffic collision injuries. A detailed history of the mechanism of injury is important for alerting clinicians to severity of injury, the need for admission, and workup of the patients. Furthermore, strict speed limit enforcement is an injury prevention priority in our community. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Model-based recursive partitioning to identify risk clusters for metabolic syndrome and its components: findings from the International Mobility in Aging Study

PubMed Central

Pirkle, Catherine M; Wu, Yan Yan; Zunzunegui, Maria-Victoria; Gómez, José Fernando

2018-01-01

Objective Conceptual models underpinning much epidemiological research on ageing acknowledge that environmental, social and biological systems interact to influence health outcomes. Recursive partitioning is a data-driven approach that allows for concurrent exploration of distinct mixtures, or clusters, of individuals that have a particular outcome. Our aim is to use recursive partitioning to examine risk clusters for metabolic syndrome (MetS) and its components, in order to identify vulnerable populations. Study design Cross-sectional analysis of baseline data from a prospective longitudinal cohort called the International Mobility in Aging Study (IMIAS). Setting IMIAS includes sites from three middle-income countries—Tirana (Albania), Natal (Brazil) and Manizales (Colombia)—and two from Canada—Kingston (Ontario) and Saint-Hyacinthe (Quebec). Participants Community-dwelling male and female adults, aged 64–75 years (n=2002). Primary and secondary outcome measures We apply recursive partitioning to investigate social and behavioural risk factors for MetS and its components. Model-based recursive partitioning (MOB) was used to cluster participants into age-adjusted risk groups based on variabilities in: study site, sex, education, living arrangements, childhood adversities, adult occupation, current employment status, income, perceived income sufficiency, smoking status and weekly minutes of physical activity. Results 43% of participants had MetS. Using MOB, the primary partitioning variable was participant sex. Among women from middle-incomes sites, the predicted proportion with MetS ranged from 58% to 68%. Canadian women with limited physical activity had elevated predicted proportions of MetS (49%, 95% CI 39% to 58%). Among men, MetS ranged from 26% to 41% depending on childhood social adversity and education. Clustering for MetS components differed from the syndrome and across components. Study site was a primary partitioning variable for all components except HDL cholesterol. Sex was important for most components. Conclusion MOB is a promising technique for identifying disease risk clusters (eg, vulnerable populations) in modestly sized samples. PMID:29500203

Modeling Diverse Pathways to Age Progressive Volcanism in Subduction Zones.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kincaid, C. R.; Szwaja, S.; Sylvia, R. T.; Druken, K. A.

2015-12-01

One of the best, and most challenging clues to unraveling mantle circulation patterns in subduction zones comes in the form of age progressive volcanic and geochemical trends. Hard fought geological data from many subduction zones, like Tonga-Lau, the Cascades and Costa-Rica/Nicaragua, reveal striking temporal patterns used in defining mantle flow directions and rates. We summarize results from laboratory subduction models showing a range in circulation and thermal-chemical transport processes. These interaction styles are capable of producing such trends, often reflecting apparent instead of actual mantle velocities. Lab experiments use a glucose working fluid to represent Earth's upper mantle and kinematically driven plates to produce a range in slab sinking and related wedge transport patterns. Kinematic forcing assumes most of the super-adiabatic temperature gradient available to drive major downwellings is in the tabular slabs. Moreover, sinking styles for fully dynamic subduction depend on many complicating factors that are only poorly understood and which can vary widely even for repeated parameter combinations. Kinematic models have the benefit of precise, repeatable control of slab motions and wedge flow responses. Results generated with these techniques show the evolution of near-surface thermal-chemical-rheological heterogeneities leads to age progressive surface expressions in a variety of ways. One set of experiments shows that rollback and back-arc extension combine to produce distinct modes of linear, age progressive melt delivery to the surface through a) erosion of the rheological boundary layer beneath the overriding plate, and deformation and redistribution of both b) mantle residuum produced from decompression melting and c) formerly active, buoyant plumes. Additional experiments consider buoyant diapirs rising in a wedge under the influence of rollback, back-arc spreading and slab-gaps. Strongly deflected diapirs, experiencing variable rise rates, also commonly surface as linear, age progressive tracks. Applying these results to systems like the Cascades and Tonga-Lau suggest there are multiple ways to produce timing trends due both to linear flows and waves of heterogeneity obliquely impacting surface plates.

Longevity and progressive abandonment of the Rocky Flats surface, Front Range, Colorado

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riihimaki, Catherine A.; Anderson, Robert S.; Safran, Elizabeth B.; Dethier, David P.; Finkel, Robert C.; Bierman, Paul R.

2006-08-01

The post-orogenic evolution of the Laramide landscape of the western U.S. has been characterized by late Cenozoic channel incision of basins and their adjacent ranges. One means of constraining the incision history of basins is dating the remnants of gravel-capped surfaces above modern streams. Here, we focus on an extensive remnant of the Rocky Flats surface between Golden and Boulder, Colorado, and use in situ-produced 10Be and 26Al concentrations in terrace alluvium to constrain the Quaternary history of this surface. Coal and Ralston Creeks, both tributaries of the South Platte River, abandoned the Rocky Flats surface and formed the Verdos and Slocum pediments, which are cut into Cretaceous bedrock between Rocky Flats and the modern stream elevations. Rocky Flats alluvium ranges widely in age, from > 2 Ma to ˜ 400 ka, with oldest ages to the east and younger ages closer to the mountain front. Numerical modeling of isotope concentration depth profiles suggests that individual sites have experienced multiple resurfacing events. Preliminary results indicate that Verdos and Slocum alluvium along Ralston Creek, which is slightly larger than Coal Creek, is several hundred thousand years old. Fluvial incision into these surfaces appears therefore to progress headward in response to downcutting of the South Platte River. The complex ages of these surfaces call into question any correlation of such surfaces based solely on their elevation above the modern channel.

Measures of 6-mercaptopurine and methotrexate maintenance therapy intensity in childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia.

PubMed

Nielsen, Stine Nygaard; Grell, Kathrine; Nersting, Jacob; Frandsen, Thomas Leth; Hjalgrim, Lisa Lyngsie; Schmiegelow, Kjeld

2016-11-01

Normal white blood cell counts (WBC) are unknown in children with acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL). Accordingly, 6-mercaptopurine (6MP) and methotrexate (MTX) maintenance therapy is adjusted by a common WBC target of 1.5-3.0 × 10 9 /L. Consequently, the absolute degree of myelosuppression is unknown for the individual child and we wanted to evaluate this. A median of 22 (range 8-27) 6MP/MTX metabolite samples and 100 (range 25-130) blood counts during therapy and 10 (range 2-15) off therapy were collected in 50 children with ALL. Differences between off-therapy and on-therapy WBCs [including absolute neutrophil (ANC) and lymphocyte counts (ALC)] were used to retrospectively approximate the absolute myelosuppression (="delta-") and association with age, sex and 6MP/MTX doses explored. We applied linear mixed models to estimate on-therapy counts by 6MP/MTX metabolites: DNA-incorporated thioguanine nucleotides (DNA-TGN), erythrocyte thioguanine nucleotides (ery-TGN), erythrocyte-methylated 6MP metabolites (ery-MeMP) and erythrocyte MTX polyglutamates with 2-6 glutamate residues (ery-MTXpg 2-6 ). On-therapy WBC was correlated with ANC and ALC (r s  = 0.84 and r s  = 0.33, p values <0.001), whereas ANC was weakly correlated with ALC (r s  = -0.11, p < 0.001), and neither significantly correlated with age. Off-therapy ALC, but not ANC, was strongly correlated with age (r s  = -0.68 and -0.18, p < 0.001 and p = 0.22). Delta-ALC decreased with increasing age (r s  = -0.69, p < 0.001). Incorporation of DNA-TGN was positively associated with ery-TGN (p < 0.001), ery-MeMP (p < 0.001) and ery-MTXpg 2-6 (p = 0.047). On-therapy ALC decreased with increasing DNA-TGN level (p < 0.001, model adjusted for off-therapy ALC), whereas on-therapy ANC could not be modeled reliably. Measurements of 6MP/MTX metabolites could supplement blood counts in assessing therapy intensity, but require prospective validation.

Working memory, age, and hearing loss: susceptibility to hearing aid distortion.

PubMed

Arehart, Kathryn H; Souza, Pamela; Baca, Rosalinda; Kates, James M

2013-01-01

Hearing aids use complex processing intended to improve speech recognition. Although many listeners benefit from such processing, it can also introduce distortion that offsets or cancels intended benefits for some individuals. The purpose of the present study was to determine the effects of cognitive ability (working memory) on individual listeners' responses to distortion caused by frequency compression applied to noisy speech. The present study analyzed a large data set of intelligibility scores for frequency-compressed speech presented in quiet and at a range of signal-to-babble ratios. The intelligibility data set was based on scores from 26 adults with hearing loss with ages ranging from 62 to 92 years. The listeners were grouped based on working memory ability. The amount of signal modification (distortion) caused by frequency compression and noise was measured using a sound quality metric. Analysis of variance and hierarchical linear modeling were used to identify meaningful differences between subject groups as a function of signal distortion caused by frequency compression and noise. Working memory was a significant factor in listeners' intelligibility of sentences presented in babble noise and processed with frequency compression based on sinusoidal modeling. At maximum signal modification (caused by both frequency compression and babble noise), the factor of working memory (when controlling for age and hearing loss) accounted for 29.3% of the variance in intelligibility scores. Combining working memory, age, and hearing loss accounted for a total of 47.5% of the variability in intelligibility scores. Furthermore, as the total amount of signal distortion increased, listeners with higher working memory performed better on the intelligibility task than listeners with lower working memory did. Working memory is a significant factor in listeners' responses to total signal distortion caused by cumulative effects of babble noise and frequency compression implemented with sinusoidal modeling. These results, together with other studies focused on wide-dynamic range compression, suggest that older listeners with hearing loss and poor working memory are more susceptible to distortions caused by at least some types of hearing aid signal-processing algorithms and by noise, and that this increased susceptibility should be considered in the hearing aid fitting process.

Some considerations for excess zeroes in substance abuse research.

PubMed

Bandyopadhyay, Dipankar; DeSantis, Stacia M; Korte, Jeffrey E; Brady, Kathleen T

2011-09-01

Count data collected in substance abuse research often come with an excess of "zeroes," which are typically handled using zero-inflated regression models. However, there is a need to consider the design aspects of those studies before using such a statistical model to ascertain the sources of zeroes. We sought to illustrate hurdle models as alternatives to zero-inflated models to validate a two-stage decision-making process in situations of "excess zeroes." We use data from a study of 45 cocaine-dependent subjects where the primary scientific question was to evaluate whether study participation influences drug-seeking behavior. The outcome, "the frequency (count) of cocaine use days per week," is bounded (ranging from 0 to 7). We fit and compare binomial, Poisson, negative binomial, and the hurdle version of these models to study the effect of gender, age, time, and study participation on cocaine use. The hurdle binomial model provides the best fit. Gender and time are not predictive of use. Higher odds of use versus no use are associated with age; however once use is experienced, odds of further use decrease with increase in age. Participation was associated with higher odds of no-cocaine use; once there is use, participation reduced the odds of further use. Age and study participation are significantly predictive of cocaine-use behavior. The two-stage decision process as modeled by a hurdle binomial model (appropriate for bounded count data with excess zeroes) provides interesting insights into the study of covariate effects on count responses of substance use, when all enrolled subjects are believed to be "at-risk" of use.

Infants and young children modeling method for numerical dosimetry studies: application to plane wave exposure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dahdouh, S.; Varsier, N.; Nunez Ochoa, M. A.; Wiart, J.; Peyman, A.; Bloch, I.

2016-02-01

Numerical dosimetry studies require the development of accurate numerical 3D models of the human body. This paper proposes a novel method for building 3D heterogeneous young children models combining results obtained from a semi-automatic multi-organ segmentation algorithm and an anatomy deformation method. The data consist of 3D magnetic resonance images, which are first segmented to obtain a set of initial tissues. A deformation procedure guided by the segmentation results is then developed in order to obtain five young children models ranging from the age of 5 to 37 months. By constraining the deformation of an older child model toward a younger one using segmentation results, we assure the anatomical realism of the models. Using the proposed framework, five models, containing thirteen tissues, are built. Three of these models are used in a prospective dosimetry study to analyze young child exposure to radiofrequency electromagnetic fields. The results lean to show the existence of a relationship between age and whole body exposure. The results also highlight the necessity to specifically study and develop measurements of child tissues dielectric properties.

Development of Dual-Retrieval Processes in Recall: Learning, Forgetting, and Reminiscence

PubMed Central

Brainerd, C. J.; Aydin, C.; Reyna, V. F.

2012-01-01

We investigated the development of dual-retrieval processes with a low-burden paradigm that is suitable for research with children and neurocognitively impaired populations (e.g., older adults with mild cognitive impairment or dementia). Rich quantitative information can be obtained about recollection, reconstruction, and familiarity judgment by defining a Markov model over simple recall tasks like those that are used in clinical neuropsychology batteries. The model measures these processes separately for learning, forgetting, and reminiscence. We implemented this procedure in some developmental experiments, whose aims were (a) to measure age changes in recollective and nonrecollective retrieval during learning, forgetting, and reminiscence and (b) to measure age changes in content dimensions (e.g., taxonomic relatedness) that affect the two forms of retrieval. The model provided excellent fits in all three domains. Concerning (a), recollection, reconstruction, and familiarity judgment all improved during the child-to-adolescent age range in the learning domain, whereas only recollection improved in the forgetting domain, and the processes were age-invariant in the reminiscence domain. Concerning (b), although some elements of the adult pattern of taxonomic relatedness effects were detected by early adolescence, the adult pattern differs qualitatively from corresponding patterns in children and adolescents. PMID:22778491

Dynamics of Biomarkers in Relation to Aging and Mortality

PubMed Central

Arbeev, Konstantin G.; Ukraintseva, Svetlana V.; Yashin, Anatoliy I.

2016-01-01

Contemporary longitudinal studies collect repeated measurements of biomarkers allowing one to analyze their dynamics in relation to mortality, morbidity, or other health-related outcomes. Rich and diverse data collected in such studies provide opportunities to investigate how various socioeconomic, demographic, behavioral and other variables can interact with biological and genetic factors to produce differential rates of aging in individuals. In this paper, we review some recent publications investigating dynamics of biomarkers in relation to mortality, which use single biomarkers as well as cumulative measures combining information from multiple biomarkers. We also discuss the analytical approach, the stochastic process models, which conceptualizes several aging-related mechanisms in the structure of the model and allows evaluating “hidden” characteristics of aging-related changes indirectly from available longitudinal data on biomarkers and follow-up on mortality or onset of diseases taking into account other relevant factors (both genetic and non-genetic). We also discuss an extension of the approach, which considers ranges of “optimal values” of biomarkers rather than a single optimal value as in the original model. We discuss practical applications of the approach to single biomarkers and cumulative measures highlighting that the potential of applications to cumulative measures is still largely underused. PMID:27138087

Fluid reasoning predicts future mathematics among children and adolescents

PubMed Central

Green, Chloe T.; Bunge, Silvia A.; Chiongbian, Victoria Briones; Barrow, Maia; Ferrer, Emilio

2017-01-01

The aim of this longitudinal study was to determine whether fluid reasoning (FR) plays a significant role in the acquisition of mathematics skills, above and beyond the effects of other cognitive and numerical abilities. Using a longitudinal cohort sequential design, we examined how FR measured at three assessment occasions, spaced approximately 1.5 years apart, predicted math outcomes for a group of 69 participants between ages 6 and 21 across all three assessment occasions. We used structural equation modeling (SEM) to examine the direct and indirect relations between children's prior cognitive abilities and their future math achievement. A model including age, FR, vocabulary, and spatial skills accounted for 90% of the variance in future math achievement. In this model, FR was the only significant predictor of future math achievement; neither age, vocabulary, nor spatial skills were significant predictors. Thus, FR was the only predictor of future math achievement across a wide age range that spanned primary and secondary school. These findings build on Cattell's conceptualization of FR (Cattell, 1987) as a scaffold for learning, showing that this domain-general ability supports the acquisition of rudimentary math skills as well as the ability to solve more complex mathematical problems. PMID:28152390

Validation of the Schizotypal Personality Questionnaire-Brief Form in adolescents.

PubMed

Fonseca-Pedrero, Eduardo; Paíno-Piñeiro, Mercedes; Lemos-Giráldez, Serafín; Villazón-García, Ursula; Muñiz, José

2009-06-01

The main objective of the study was to validate the Schizotypal Personality Questionnaire-Brief (SPQ-B) in a sample of non-clinical adolescents. In addition, the schizotypal personality structure and differences in the dimensions of schizotypy according to gender and age are analyzed. The sample comprises 1683 students, 818 males (48.6%), with a mean age of 15.9 years (SD=1.2). The results showed that the SPQ-B had adequate psychometric properties. Internal consistency of the subscales and total score ranged from 0.61 to 0.81. Confirmatory factor analyses indicated that the three-factor model (positive, negative, and disorganized) and the four-factor model (positive, paranoid, negative, and disorganized) fit reasonably well in comparison to the remaining models. With regard to gender and age, statistically significant differences were found due to age but not to gender. In line with previous literature, the results confirmed the multi-factor structure of the schizotypal personality in non-clinical adolescent populations. Future studies could use the SPQ-B as a screening self-report of rapid and efficient application for the detection of adolescents vulnerable to the development of schizophrenia-spectrum disorders in the general population, in genetically high-risk samples and in clinical studies.

The stellar populations of nearby early-type galaxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Concannon, Kristi Dendy

The recent completion of comprehensive photometric and spectroscopic galaxy surveys has revealed that early-type galaxies form a more heterogeneous family than previously thought. To better understand the star formation histories of early-type galaxies, we have obtained a set of high resolution, high signal-to-noise ratio spectra for a sample of 180 nearby early-type galaxies with the FAST spectrograph and the 1.5m telescope at F. L. Whipple Observatory. The spectra cover the wavelength range 3500 5500 Å which allows the comparison of various Balmer lines, most importantly the higher order lines in the blue, and have a S/N ratio higher than that of previous samples, which makes it easier to investigate the intrinsic spread in the observed parameters. The data set contains galaxies in both the local field and Virgo cluster environment and spans the velocity dispersion range 50 < log σ < 250km s -1. In conjunction with recent improvements in population synthesis modeling, our data set enables us to investigate the star formation history of E/S0 galaxies as a function of mass (σ), environment, and to some extent morphology. We are able to probe the effects of age and metallicity on fundamental observable relations such as the Mg-σ relation, and show that there is a significant spread in age in such diagrams, at all log σ, such that their “uniformity” can not be interpreted as a homogeneous history for early-type galaxies. Analyzing the age and [Fe/H] distribution as a function of the galaxy mass, we find that an age-σ relation exists among galaxies in both the local field and the Virgo cluster, such that the lower log σ galaxies have younger luminosity-weighted mean ages. The age spread of the low σ galaxies suggests that essentially all of the low-mass galaxies contain young to intermediate age populations, whereas the spread in age of the high log σ galaxies (log σ >˜ 2.0) is much larger, with galaxies spanning the age range of 4 19 Gyr. Thus, rather than pointing to all Es and S0s being old, the data show that even the most massive galaxies in our sample span a range of intermediate to old ages.

Reference Values of Impulse Oscillometric Lung Function Indices in Adults of Advanced Age

PubMed Central

Schulz, Holger; Flexeder, Claudia; Behr, Jürgen; Heier, Margit; Holle, Rolf; Huber, Rudolf M.; Jörres, Rudolf A.; Nowak, Dennis; Peters, Annette; Wichmann, H.-Erich; Heinrich, Joachim; Karrasch, Stefan

2013-01-01

Background Impulse oscillometry (IOS) is a non-demanding lung function test. Its diagnostic use may be particularly useful in patients of advanced age with physical or mental limitations unable to perform spirometry. Only few reference equations are available for Caucasians, none of them covering the old age. Here, we provide reference equations up to advanced age and compare them with currently available equations. Methods IOS was performed in a population-based sample of 1990 subjects, aged 45–91 years, from KORA cohorts (Augsburg, Germany). From those, 397 never-smoking, lung healthy subjects with normal spirometry were identified and sex-specific quantile regression models with age, height and body weight as predictors for respiratory system impedance, resistance, reactance, and other parameters of IOS applied. Results Women (n = 243) showed higher resistance values than men (n = 154), while reactance at low frequencies (up to 20 Hz) was lower (p<0.05). A significant age dependency was observed for the difference between resistance values at 5 Hz and 20 Hz (R5–R20), the integrated area of low-frequency reactance (AX), and resonant frequency (Fres) in both sexes whereas reactance at 5 Hz (X5) was age dependent only in females. In the healthy subjects (n = 397), mean differences between observed values and predictions for resistance (5 Hz and 20 Hz) and reactance (5 Hz) ranged between −1% and 5% when using the present model. In contrast, differences based on the currently applied equations (Vogel & Smidt 1994) ranged between −34% and 76%. Regarding our equations the indices were beyond the limits of normal in 8.1% to 18.6% of the entire KORA cohort (n = 1990), and in 0.7% to 9.4% with the currently applied equations. Conclusions Our study provides up-to-date reference equations for IOS in Caucasians aged 45 to 85 years. We suggest the use of the present equations particularly in advanced age in order to detect airway dysfunction. PMID:23691036

Accommodation and age-dependent eye model based on in vivo measurements.

PubMed

Zapata-Díaz, Juan F; Radhakrishnan, Hema; Charman, W Neil; López-Gil, Norberto

2018-03-21

To develop a flexible model of the average eye that incorporates changes with age and accommodation in all optical parameters, including entrance pupil diameter, under photopic, natural, environmental conditions. We collated retrospective in vivo measurements of all optical parameters, including entrance pupil diameter. Ray-tracing was used to calculate the wavefront aberrations of the eye model as a function of age, stimulus vergence and pupil diameter. These aberrations were used to calculate objective refraction using paraxial curvature matching. This was also done for several stimulus positions to calculate the accommodation response/stimulus curve. The model predicts a hyperopic change in distance refraction as the eye ages (+0.22D every 10 years) between 20 and 65 years. The slope of the accommodation response/stimulus curve was 0.72 for a 25 years-old subject, with little change between 20 and 45 years. A trend to a more negative value of primary spherical aberration as the eye accommodates is predicted for all ages (20-50 years). When accommodation is relaxed, a slight increase in primary spherical aberration (0.008μm every 10 years) between 20 and 65 years is predicted, for an age-dependent entrance pupil diameter ranging between 3.58mm (20 years) and 3.05mm (65 years). Results match reasonably well with studies performed in real eyes, except that spherical aberration is systematically slightly negative as compared with the practical data. The proposed eye model is able to predict changes in objective refraction and accommodation response. It has the potential to be a useful design and testing tool for devices (e.g. intraocular lenses or contact lenses) designed to correct the eye's optical errors. Copyright © 2018 Spanish General Council of Optometry. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

An improved chronology for the Lateglacial palaeoenvironmental record of Lake Haemelsee, Germany: challenges for independent site comparisons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lane, Christine; Brauer, Achim; Ramsey Christopher, Bronk; Engels, Stefan; Haliuc, Aritina; Hoek, Wim; Hubay, Katalin; Jones, Gwydion; Sachse, Dirk; Staff, Richard; Turner, Falko; Wagner-Cremer, Frederike

2016-04-01

Exploring temporal and spatial variability of environmental response to climatic changes requires the comparison of widespread palaeoenvironmental sequences on their own, independently-derived, age models. High precision age-models can be constructed using statistical methods to combine absolute and relative age estimates measured using a range of techniques. Such an approach may help to highlight otherwise unrecognised uncertainties, where a single dating method has been applied in isolation. Radiocarbon dating, tephrochronology and varve counting have been combined within a Bayesian depositional model to build a chronology for a sediment sequence from Lake Haemelsee (Northern Germany) that continuously covers the entire Lateglacial and early Holocene. Each of the dating techniques used brought its own challenges. Radiocarbon dates provide the only absolute ages measured directly in the record, however a low macrofossil content led to small sample sizes and a limited number of low precision dates. A floating varved interval provided restricted but very precise relative dating for sediments covering the Allerød to Younger Dryas transition. Well-spaced, visible and crypto- tephra layers, including the widespread Laacher See , Vedde Ash, Askja-S and Saksunarvatn tephra layers, allow absolute ages for the tephra layers established in other locations to be imported into the Haemelsee sequence. These layers also provide multiple tie-lines that allow the Haemelsee sequences to be directly compared at particular moments in time, and within particular intervals, to other important Lateglacial archives. However, selecting the "best" published tephra ages to use in the Haemelsee age model is not simple and risks biasing comparison of the palaeoenvironmental record to fit one or another comparative archive. Here we investigate the use of multiple age models for the Haemelsee record, in order to retain an independent approach to investigating the environmental transitions of the Lateglacial to Early Holocene.

Geometrical properties of the human child cervical spine with a focus on the C1 vertebra.

PubMed

Yoganandan, Narayan; Pintar, Frank A; Lew, Sean M; Rao, Raj D

2014-01-01

Child dummies and injury criteria used in automotive crashworthiness environments are based on scaling from the adult and/or between children of different ages. Cartilage-to-bone ossification, spinal canal and joint developments of the spine, and strength attainments do not grow linearly from birth to maturity. Though this is known to medical professionals, age-based quantitative analyses are needed to accurately model the pediatric spine. The objective of this study was to quantify longitudinal growths of various regions of the first cervical vertebrae, responsible for transmitting the axial load from the base of the skull through the condyles to the neck/torso. Computed tomography (CT) images of 54 children from one day to 18 years of age were retrospectively used to determine the following geometrical properties: bilateral neurocentral synchondroses widths, the width of posterior synchondrosis, outer and inner anteroposterior and transverse diameters, spinal canal area, and depths of the anterior and posterior arches of the C1 vertebra. Both axial and sagittal CT images were used in the analysis. Sagittal images were used to quantify data for the anterior and posterior arches and axial images were used for all described cross-sectional parameters. Geometrical properties were extracted and reported for the various parameters at 6 months; one year; 18 months; and 3, 6, and 10 years of age corresponding to the dummy family ages routinely used in motor vehicle crashworthiness research and other applications. The outer transverse diameter ranged from 4.97 to 7.08 cm; outer and inner antero-posterior diameters ranged from 2.99 to 4.18 and 2.19 to 3.03 mm; and spinal canal area ranged from 4.34 to 6.68 mm(2). Other data are given in the body of the article. The growths of the first cervical vertebra quantified in terms of the above variables occurred nonlinearly with age and the degree of nonlinearity depended on the type of the geometrical parameter. Growths did not match with the simple scaling ratios based on the adult spine, used in different studies reported in the current literature. These early nonlinear and nonuniform age- and local geometry-specific variations should be considered in human finite element models for an accurate transfer of the external load from the atlas to the subaxial spine and to improve their fidelity and biomechanical capabilities.

The effect of star-spots on the ages of low-mass stars determined from the lithium depletion boundary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jackson, R. J.; Jeffries, R. D.

2014-12-01

In a coeval group of low-mass stars, the luminosity of the sharp transition between stars that retain their initial lithium and those at slightly higher masses in which Li has been depleted by nuclear reactions, the lithium depletion boundary (LDB), has been advanced as an almost model-independent means of establishing an age scale for young stars. Here, we construct polytropic models of contracting pre-main sequence stars (PMS) that have cool, magnetic star-spots blocking a fraction β of their photospheric flux. Star-spots slow the descent along Hayashi tracks, leading to lower core temperatures and less Li destruction at a given mass and age. The age, τLDB, determined from the luminosity of the LDB, LLDB, is increased by a factor of (1 - β)-E compared to that inferred from unspotted models, where E ≃ 1 + dlog τLDB/dlog LLDB and has a value ˜0.5 at ages <80 Myr, decreasing to ˜0.3 for older stars. Spotted stars have virtually the same relationship between K-band bolometric correction and colour as unspotted stars, so this relationship applies equally to ages inferred from the absolute K magnitude of the LDB. Low-mass PMS stars do have star-spots, but the appropriate value of β is highly uncertain with a probable range of 0.1 < β < 0.4. For the smaller β values, our result suggests a modest systematic increase in LDB ages that is comparable with the maximum levels of theoretical uncertainty previously claimed for the technique. The largest β values would however increase LDB ages by 20-30 per cent and demand a re-evaluation of other age estimation techniques calibrated using LDB ages.

The importance of age composition of 12-step meetings as a moderating factor in the relation between young adults' 12-step participation and abstinence.

PubMed

Labbe, Allison K; Greene, Claire; Bergman, Brandon G; Hoeppner, Bettina; Kelly, John F

2013-12-01

Participation in 12-step mutual help organizations (MHO) is a common continuing care recommendation for adults; however, little is known about the effects of MHO participation among young adults (i.e., ages 18-25 years) for whom the typically older age composition at meetings may serve as a barrier to engagement and benefits. This study examined whether the age composition of 12-step meetings moderated the recovery benefits derived from attending MHOs. Young adults (n=302; 18-24 years; 26% female; 94% White) enrolled in a naturalistic study of residential treatment effectiveness were assessed at intake, and 3, 6, and 12 months later on 12-step attendance, age composition of attended 12-step groups, and treatment outcome (Percent Days Abstinent [PDA]). Hierarchical linear models (HLM) tested the moderating effect of age composition on PDA concurrently and in lagged models controlling for confounds. A significant three-way interaction between attendance, age composition, and time was detected in the concurrent (p=0.002), but not lagged, model (b=0.38, p=0.46). Specifically, a similar age composition was helpful early post-treatment among low 12-step attendees, but became detrimental over time. Treatment and other referral agencies might enhance the likelihood of successful remission and recovery among young adults by locating and initially linking such individuals to age appropriate groups. Once engaged, however, it may be prudent to encourage gradual integration into the broader mixed-age range of 12-step meetings, wherein it is possible that older members may provide the depth and length of sober experience needed to carry young adults forward into long-term recovery. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Aging and functional brain networks

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tomasi D.; Tomasi, D.; Volkow, N.D.

2011-07-11

Aging is associated with changes in human brain anatomy and function and cognitive decline. Recent studies suggest the aging decline of major functional connectivity hubs in the 'default-mode' network (DMN). Aging effects on other networks, however, are largely unknown. We hypothesized that aging would be associated with a decline of short- and long-range functional connectivity density (FCD) hubs in the DMN. To test this hypothesis, we evaluated resting-state data sets corresponding to 913 healthy subjects from a public magnetic resonance imaging database using functional connectivity density mapping (FCDM), a voxelwise and data-driven approach, together with parallel computing. Aging was associatedmore » with pronounced long-range FCD decreases in DMN and dorsal attention network (DAN) and with increases in somatosensory and subcortical networks. Aging effects in these networks were stronger for long-range than for short-range FCD and were also detected at the level of the main functional hubs. Females had higher short- and long-range FCD in DMN and lower FCD in the somatosensory network than males, but the gender by age interaction effects were not significant for any of the networks or hubs. These findings suggest that long-range connections may be more vulnerable to aging effects than short-range connections and that, in addition to the DMN, the DAN is also sensitive to aging effects, which could underlie the deterioration of attention processes that occurs with aging.« less

Modelling of photodegradation effect on elastic-viscoplastic behaviour of amorphous polylactic acid films

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Belbachir, S.; Zaïri, F.; Ayoub, G.; Maschke, U.; Naït-Abdelaziz, M.; Gloaguen, J. M.; Benguediab, M.; Lefebvre, J. M.

2010-02-01

Polylactic acid (PLA) films were subjected to accelerated ultra-violet (UV) ageing. The UV irradiation leads to the alteration of the chemical structure which influences directly the mechanical response of the polymer. The chemical modification of the polymer was followed by gel permeation chromatography. Uniaxial tension tests were conducted at 50 °C and for different strain rates in order to characterize the large deformation response of PLA. The influence of UV irradiation on the alteration of the large deformation response of PLA was examined. A physically based elastic-viscoplastic model was used to describe the mechanical response of virgin PLA. The photodegradation effect was incorporated into the constitutive model to capture the stress-strain behaviour up to failure of aged PLA. To that end, the measured molecular weight was used as a direct input into the model. The model is shown to be in good agreement with experimental results over a wide range of UV irradiation doses.

Emission-line diagnostics of nearby H II regions including interacting binary populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiao, Lin; Stanway, Elizabeth R.; Eldridge, J. J.

2018-06-01

We present numerical models of the nebular emission from H II regions around young stellar populations over a range of compositions and ages. The synthetic stellar populations include both single stars and interacting binary stars. We compare these models to the observed emission lines of 254 H II regions of 13 nearby spiral galaxies and 21 dwarf galaxies drawn from archival data. The models are created using the combination of the BPASS (Binary Population and Spectral Synthesis) code with the photoionization code CLOUDY to study the differences caused by the inclusion of interacting binary stars in the stellar population. We obtain agreement with the observed emission line ratios from the nearby star-forming regions and discuss the effect of binary-star evolution pathways on the nebular ionization of H II regions. We find that at population ages above 10 Myr, single-star models rapidly decrease in flux and ionization strength, while binary-star models still produce strong flux and high [O III]/H β ratios. Our models can reproduce the metallicity of H II regions from spiral galaxies, but we find higher metallicities than previously estimated for the H II regions from dwarf galaxies. Comparing the equivalent width of H β emission between models and observations, we find that accounting for ionizing photon leakage can affect age estimates for H II regions. When it is included, the typical age derived for H II regions is 5 Myr from single-star models, and up to 10 Myr with binary-star models. This is due to the existence of binary-star evolution pathways, which produce more hot Wolf-Rayet and helium stars at older ages. For future reference, we calculate new BPASS binary maximal starburst lines as a function of metallicity, and for the total model population, and present these in Appendix A.

Thermal Modeling of Al-Al and Al-Steel Friction Stir Spot Welding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jedrasiak, P.; Shercliff, H. R.; Reilly, A.; McShane, G. J.; Chen, Y. C.; Wang, L.; Robson, J.; Prangnell, P.

2016-09-01

This paper presents a finite element thermal model for similar and dissimilar alloy friction stir spot welding (FSSW). The model is calibrated and validated using instrumented lap joints in Al-Al and Al-Fe automotive sheet alloys. The model successfully predicts the thermal histories for a range of process conditions. The resulting temperature histories are used to predict the growth of intermetallic phases at the interface in Al-Fe welds. Temperature predictions were used to study the evolution of hardness of a precipitation-hardened aluminum alloy during post-weld aging after FSSW.

Reference values and equations reference of balance for children of 8 to 12 years.

PubMed

Libardoni, Thiele de Cássia; Silveira, Carolina Buzzi da; Sinhorim, Larissa Milani Brognoli; Oliveira, Anamaria Siriani de; Santos, Márcio José Dos; Santos, Gilmar Moraes

2018-02-01

There are still no normative data in balance sway for school-age children in Brazil. We aimed to establish the reference ranges for balance scores and to develop prediction equations for estimation of balance scores in children aged 8 to 12 years old. The study included 165 healthy children (83 boys and 82 girls; age, 8-12 years) recruited from a public school in the city of Florianópolis, Santa Catarina, Brazil. We used the Sensory Organization Test to assess the balance scores and both a digital scale and a stadiometer to measure the anthropometric variables. We tested a stepwise multiple-regression model with sex, height, weight, and mid-thigh circumference of the dominant leg as predictors of the balance score. For all experimental conditions, girls' age accounted for over 85% of the variability in balance scores; while, boys' age accounted only 55% of the variability in balance scores. Therefore, balance scores increase with age for boys and girls. This study described the ranges of age- and sex-specific normative values for balance scores in children during 6 different testing conditions established by the sensory organization test. We confirmed that age was the predictor that best explained the variability in balance scores in children between 8 and 12 years old. This study stimulates a new and more comprehensive study to estimate balance scores from prediction equations for overall Brazilian pediatric population. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Normal reference ranges for and variability in the levels of blood manganese and selenium by gender, age, and race/ethnicity for general U.S. population.

PubMed

Jain, Ram B; Choi, Y Sammy

2015-04-01

Data from National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey for the period 2011-2012 were used to determine normal reference ranges and percentile distributions for manganese (Mn) and selenium (Se) in blood by gender, age, race/ethnicity, socioeconomic status as determined by annual family income, and smoking status. The effect of gender, age, race/ethnicity, family income, and smoking status on the levels of Mn and Se was also determined by fitting regression models. Males had lower adjusted levels of Mn and higher adjusted levels of Se than females. Adjusted levels of Mn decreased with increase in age but adjusted levels of Se were lower in adolescents aged 12-19 years than adults aged 20-64 years. Non-Hispanic black (NHB) had the lowest levels of both Mn and Se and non-Hispanic Asians (NHAS) had the highest levels of both Mn and Se. Non-Hispanic white (NHW) and NHB had lower levels of Mn than Hispanics (HISP) and NHAS. NHB and HISP had lower levels of Se than NHW and NHAS. Low annual income (<$20,000) was associated with lower levels of Se than high annual income (≥$55,000). Smoking negatively affected the adjusted levels of Se among seniors aged ≥65 years but this was not observed in other age groups. Mn levels were not affected by smoking. Published by Elsevier GmbH.

Music Listening Preferences of Macau Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hui, Wanfong Viny

2009-01-01

This is a pioneer study of Macau's music education focusing on music listening preference. Adopting models from Western cultures, the study, launched in 2006, aimed to explore the factors of age and gender in regard to music preference. The subjects ranged from fourth-graders to university students (N=2495) (15 missing). Participants rated their…

A Test of the Abstinence Violation Effect.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ruderman, Audrey J.

According to the abstinence violation effect, highly controlled drinkers tend to overindulge following an initial slip. To investigate this relapse model, 47 male college students, ranging in age from 21 to 46, were assigned either to an unrestrained or a restrained drinker group according to their scores on the Restrained Drinking Scale. Subjects…

Length of stay of stroke rehabilitation inpatients: prediction through the functional independence measure.

PubMed

Franchignoni, F; Tesio, L; Martino, M T; Benevolo, E; Castagna, M

1998-01-01

A model for prediction of length of stay (LOS, in days) of stroke rehabilitation inpatients was developed, based on patients' age (years) and function at admission (scored on the Functional Independence Measure, FIMSM). One hundred and twenty-nine cases, consecutively admitted to three free-standing rehabilitation centres in Italy, were analyzed. A multiple linear regression using forward stepwise selection procedure was adopted. Median admission and discharge scores were: 57 and 75 for the total FIM score, 29 and 48 for the 13-item motor FIM subscore, 29 and 30 for the 5-item cognitive FIM subscore (potential range: 18-126, 13-91, 5-35, respectively). Median LOS was 44 days (interquartile range 30-62). The logLOS predictive model included three FIM items ("toilet transfer", TTr; "social interaction"; "expression") and patient's age (R2 = 0.48). TTr alone explained 31.3% of the variance of logLOS. These results are consistent with previous American studies, showing that FIM scores at admission are strong predictors of patients' LOS, with the transfer items having the greatest predictive power.

A Systematic Review of the Literature on Cystic Echinococcosis Frequency Worldwide and Its Associated Clinical Manifestations

PubMed Central

Budke, Christine M.; Carabin, Hélène; Ndimubanzi, Patrick C.; Nguyen, Hai; Rainwater, Elizabeth; Dickey, Mary; Bhattarai, Rachana; Zeziulin, Oleksandr; Qian, Men-Bao

2013-01-01

A systematic literature review of cystic echinoccocosis (CE) frequency and symptoms was conducted. Studies without denominators, original data, or using one serological test were excluded. Random-effect log-binomial models were run for CE frequency and proportion of reported symptoms where appropriate. A total of 45 and 25 articles on CE frequency and symptoms met all inclusion criteria. Prevalence of CE ranged from 1% to 7% in community-based studies and incidence rates ranged from 0 to 32 cases per 100,000 in hospital-based studies. The CE prevalence was higher in females (Prevalence Proportion Ratio: 1.35 [95% Bayesian Credible Interval: 1.16–1.53]) and increased with age. The most common manifestations of hepatic and pulmonary CE were abdominal pain (57.3% [95% confidence interval [CI]: 37.3–76.1%]) and cough (51.3% [95% CI: 35.7–66.7%]), respectively. The results are limited by the small number of unbiased studies. Nonetheless, the age/gender prevalence differences could be used to inform future models of CE burden. PMID:23546806

A systematic review of the literature on cystic echinococcosis frequency worldwide and its associated clinical manifestations.

PubMed

Budke, Christine M; Carabin, Hélène; Ndimubanzi, Patrick C; Nguyen, Hai; Rainwater, Elizabeth; Dickey, Mary; Bhattarai, Rachana; Zeziulin, Oleksandr; Qian, Men-Bao

2013-06-01

A systematic literature review of cystic echinoccocosis (CE) frequency and symptoms was conducted. Studies without denominators, original data, or using one serological test were excluded. Random-effect log-binomial models were run for CE frequency and proportion of reported symptoms where appropriate. A total of 45 and 25 articles on CE frequency and symptoms met all inclusion criteria. Prevalence of CE ranged from 1% to 7% in community-based studies and incidence rates ranged from 0 to 32 cases per 100,000 in hospital-based studies. The CE prevalence was higher in females (Prevalence Proportion Ratio: 1.35 [95% Bayesian Credible Interval: 1.16-1.53]) and increased with age. The most common manifestations of hepatic and pulmonary CE were abdominal pain (57.3% [95% confidence interval [CI]: 37.3-76.1%]) and cough (51.3% [95% CI: 35.7-66.7%]), respectively. The results are limited by the small number of unbiased studies. Nonetheless, the age/gender prevalence differences could be used to inform future models of CE burden.

Bat trait, genetic and pathogen data from large-scale investigations of African fruit bats, Eidolon helvum.

PubMed

Peel, Alison J; Baker, Kate S; Hayman, David T S; Suu-Ire, Richard; Breed, Andrew C; Gembu, Guy-Crispin; Lembo, Tiziana; Fernández-Loras, Andrés; Sargan, David R; Fooks, Anthony R; Cunningham, Andrew A; Wood, James L N

2016-08-01

Bats, including African straw-coloured fruit bats (Eidolon helvum), have been highlighted as reservoirs of many recently emerged zoonotic viruses. This common, widespread and ecologically important species was the focus of longitudinal and continent-wide studies of the epidemiological and ecology of Lagos bat virus, henipaviruses and Achimota viruses. Here we present a spatial, morphological, demographic, genetic and serological dataset encompassing 2827 bats from nine countries over an 8-year period. Genetic data comprises cytochrome b mitochondrial sequences (n=608) and microsatellite genotypes from 18 loci (n=544). Tooth-cementum analyses (n=316) allowed derivation of rare age-specific serologic data for a lyssavirus, a henipavirus and two rubulaviruses. This dataset contributes a substantial volume of data on the ecology of E. helvum and its viruses and will be valuable for a wide range of studies, including viral transmission dynamic modelling in age-structured populations, investigation of seasonal reproductive asynchrony in wide-ranging species, ecological niche modelling, inference of island colonisation history, exploration of relationships between island and body size, and various spatial analyses of demographic, morphometric or serological data.

Mesozoic clay diagenesis in the Appalachian Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boles, A.; Mulch, A.; van der Pluijm, B.

2017-12-01

Integrated investigation of authigenic clays in the Appalachian Plateau of the northeastern US Midcontinent using X-ray goniometry, Rietveld-method based illite polytype analysis, and 40Ar/39Ar geochronology yields novel insights about the structural diagenetic history of the North American sedimentary cover sequence. Texture analysis by High Resolution X-ray Texture Goniometry records the presence of a bedding-parallel diagenetic fabric, corresponding to a burial depth of 2-5 km. New development of polytype modeling using BGMN®, a quantitative X-ray powder diffraction forward modeling and whole-pattern matching program matches mineralic characteristic of illite at those depths and reduces uncertainty estimates in age analysis. Based on dating size fractions, the diagenetic age is constrained to 225-250 Ma (Triassic) by four authigenic illite samples, reflecting protracted, regional diagenesis in the area. Preliminary H isotopic analysis points to a surface-derived diagenetic fluid with δD values ranging from -48 to -72‰ (in the range of predicted Pangea meteoric fluid), with a dependence on proximity to the Appalachian Mountains that may reflect a rain shadow effect.

Epigenetic mechanisms of dietary restriction induced aging in Drosophila.

PubMed

Lian, Ting; Gaur, Uma; Yang, Deying; Li, Diyan; Li, Ying; Yang, Mingyao

2015-12-01

Aging is a long-standing problem that people are always interested in. Thus, it is critical to understand the underlying molecular mechanisms in aging and explore the most efficient method to extend life expectancy. To achieve this goal, a wide range of systems including cells, rodent models, budding yeast, worms and flies have been employed for decades. In recent years, the effect of dietary restriction (DR) on lifespan is in the prime focus. Although we have confirmed that reduced insulin and/or insulin-like growth factor (IGF) and the target of rapamycin (TOR) signaling can increase Drosophila lifespan; the precise molecular mechanisms and nutritional response landscape of diet-mediated aging is ambiguous. Epigenetic events have been considered as the major contributors to lifespan extension with response to DR. The role of DNA methylation in aging is well acknowledged in mammals and rodents where it has been shown to impact aging by regulating the transcription, though the mechanism of regulation is not limited to only transcription. In Drosophila, the contribution of methylation during DR in aging is definitely less explored. In this review, we will update the advances in mechanisms of DR, with a particular focus on methylation as an upcoming target for aging studies and discuss Drosophila as a powerful model to understand mechanisms of aging with response to diet. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Systematic feature selection improves accuracy of methylation-based forensic age estimation in Han Chinese males.

PubMed

Feng, Lei; Peng, Fuduan; Li, Shanfei; Jiang, Li; Sun, Hui; Ji, Anquan; Zeng, Changqing; Li, Caixia; Liu, Fan

2018-03-23

Estimating individual age from biomarkers may provide key information facilitating forensic investigations. Recent progress has shown DNA methylation at age-associated CpG sites as the most informative biomarkers for estimating the individual age of an unknown donor. Optimal feature selection plays a critical role in determining the performance of the final prediction model. In this study we investigate methylation levels at 153 age-associated CpG sites from 21 previously reported genomic regions using the EpiTYPER system for their predictive power on individual age in 390 Han Chinese males ranging from 15 to 75 years of age. We conducted a systematic feature selection using a stepwise backward multiple linear regression analysis as well as an exhaustive searching algorithm. Both approaches identified the same subset of 9 CpG sites, which in linear combination provided the optimal model fitting with mean absolute deviation (MAD) of 2.89 years of age and explainable variance (R 2 ) of 0.92. The final model was validated in two independent Han Chinese male samples (validation set 1, N = 65, MAD = 2.49, R 2  = 0.95, and validation set 2, N = 62, MAD = 3.36, R 2  = 0.89). Other competing models such as support vector machine and artificial neural network did not outperform the linear model to any noticeable degree. The validation set 1 was additionally analyzed using Pyrosequencing technology for cross-platform validation and was termed as validation set 3. Directly applying our model, in which the methylation levels were detected by the EpiTYPER system, to the data from pyrosequencing technology showed, however, less accurate results in terms of MAD (validation set 3, N = 65 Han Chinese males, MAD = 4.20, R 2  = 0.93), suggesting the presence of a batch effect between different data generation platforms. This batch effect could be partially overcome by a z-score transformation (MAD = 2.76, R 2  = 0.93). Overall, our systematic feature selection identified 9 CpG sites as the optimal subset for forensic age estimation and the prediction model consisting of these 9 markers demonstrated high potential in forensic practice. An age estimator implementing our prediction model allowing missing markers is freely available at http://liufan.big.ac.cn/AgePrediction. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modeling sandhill crane population dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, D.H.

1979-01-01

The impact of sport hunting on the Central Flyway population of sandhill cranes (Grus canadensis) has been a subject of controversy for several years. A recent study (Buller 1979) presented new and important information on sandhill crane population dynamics. The present report is intended to incorporate that and other information into a mathematical model for the purpose of assessing the long-range impact of hunting on the population of sandhill cranes.The model is a simple deterministic system that embodies density-dependent rates of survival and recruitment. The model employs four kinds of data: (1) spring population size of sandhill cranes, estimated from aerial surveys to be between 250,000 and 400,000 birds; (2) age composition in fall, estimated for 1974-76 to be 11.3% young; (3) annual harvest of cranes, estimated from a variety of sources to be about 5 to 7% of the spring population; and (4) age composition of harvested cranes, which was difficult to estimate but suggests that immatures were 2 to 4 times as vulnerable to hunting as adults.Because the true nature of sandhill crane population dynamics remains so poorly understood, it was necessary to try numerous (768 in all) combinations of survival and recruitment functions, and focus on the relatively few (37) that yielded population sizes and age structures comparable to those extant in the real population. Hunting was then applied to those simulated populations. In all combinations, hunting resulted in a lower asymptotic crane population, the decline ranging from 5 to 54%. The median decline was 22%, which suggests that a hunted sandhill crane population might be about three-fourths as large as it would be if left unhunted. Results apply to the aggregate of the three subspecies in the Central Flyway; individual subspecies or populations could be affected to a greater or lesser degree.

A stand-alone tree demography and landscape structure module for Earth system models: integration with global forest data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haverd, V.; Smith, B.; Nieradzik, L. P.; Briggs, P. R.

2014-02-01

Poorly constrained rates of biomass turnover are a key limitation of Earth system models (ESM). In light of this, we recently proposed a new approach encoded in a model called Populations-Order-Physiology (POP), for the simulation of woody ecosystem stand dynamics, demography and disturbance-mediated heterogeneity. POP is suitable for continental to global applications and designed for coupling to the terrestrial ecosystem component of any ESM. POP bridges the gap between first generation Dynamic Vegetation Models (DVMs) with simple large-area parameterisations of woody biomass (typically used in current ESMs) and complex second generation DVMs, that explicitly simulate demographic processes and landscape heterogeneity of forests. The key simplification in the POP approach, compared with second-generation DVMs, is to compute physiological processes such as assimilation at grid-scale (with CABLE or a similar land surface model), but to partition the grid-scale biomass increment among age classes defined at sub grid-scale, each subject to its own dynamics. POP was successfully demonstrated along a savanna transect in northern Australia, replicating the effects of strong rainfall and fire disturbance gradients on observed stand productivity and structure. Here, we extend the application of POP to a range of forest types around the globe, employing paired observations of stem biomass and density from forest inventory data to calibrate model parameters governing stand demography and biomass evolution. The calibrated POP model is then coupled to the CABLE land surface model and the combined model (CABLE-POP) is evaluated against leaf-stem allometry observations from forest stands ranging in age from 3 to 200 yr. Results indicate that simulated biomass pools conform well with observed allometry. We conclude that POP represents a preferable alternative to large-area parameterisations of woody biomass turnover, typically used in current ESMs.

Nannofossils in 2011 El Hierro eruptive products reinstate plume model for Canary Islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaczek, Kirsten; Troll, Valentin R.; Cachao, Mario; Ferreira, Jorge; Deegan, Frances M.; Carracedo, Juan Carlos; Soler, Vicente; Meade, Fiona C.; Burchardt, Steffi

2015-01-01

The origin and life cycle of ocean islands have been debated since the early days of Geology. In the case of the Canary archipelago, its proximity to the Atlas orogen led to initial fracture-controlled models for island genesis, while later workers cited a Miocene-Quaternary east-west age-progression to support an underlying mantle-plume. The recent discovery of submarine Cretaceous volcanic rocks near the westernmost island of El Hierro now questions this systematic age-progression within the archipelago. If a mantle-plume is indeed responsible for the Canaries, the onshore volcanic age-progression should be complemented by progressively younger pre-island sedimentary strata towards the west, however, direct age constraints for the westernmost pre-island sediments are lacking. Here we report on new age data obtained from calcareous nannofossils in sedimentary xenoliths erupted during the 2011 El Hierro events, which date the sub-island sedimentary rocks to between late Cretaceous and Pliocene in age. This age-range includes substantially younger pre-volcanic sedimentary rocks than the Jurassic to Miocene strata known from the older eastern islands and now reinstate the mantle-plume hypothesis as the most plausible explanation for Canary volcanism. The recently discovered Cretaceous submarine volcanic rocks in the region are, in turn, part of an older, fracture-related tectonic episode.

Nannofossils in 2011 El Hierro eruptive products reinstate plume model for Canary Islands.

PubMed

Zaczek, Kirsten; Troll, Valentin R; Cachao, Mario; Ferreira, Jorge; Deegan, Frances M; Carracedo, Juan Carlos; Soler, Vicente; Meade, Fiona C; Burchardt, Steffi

2015-01-22

The origin and life cycle of ocean islands have been debated since the early days of Geology. In the case of the Canary archipelago, its proximity to the Atlas orogen led to initial fracture-controlled models for island genesis, while later workers cited a Miocene-Quaternary east-west age-progression to support an underlying mantle-plume. The recent discovery of submarine Cretaceous volcanic rocks near the westernmost island of El Hierro now questions this systematic age-progression within the archipelago. If a mantle-plume is indeed responsible for the Canaries, the onshore volcanic age-progression should be complemented by progressively younger pre-island sedimentary strata towards the west, however, direct age constraints for the westernmost pre-island sediments are lacking. Here we report on new age data obtained from calcareous nannofossils in sedimentary xenoliths erupted during the 2011 El Hierro events, which date the sub-island sedimentary rocks to between late Cretaceous and Pliocene in age. This age-range includes substantially younger pre-volcanic sedimentary rocks than the Jurassic to Miocene strata known from the older eastern islands and now reinstate the mantle-plume hypothesis as the most plausible explanation for Canary volcanism. The recently discovered Cretaceous submarine volcanic rocks in the region are, in turn, part of an older, fracture-related tectonic episode.

Development of a resource allocation formula for substance misuse treatment services.

PubMed

Jones, Andrew; Hayhurst, Karen P; Whittaker, Will; Mason, Thomas; Sutton, Matt

2017-11-23

Funding for substance misuse services comprises one-third of Public Health spend in England. The current allocation formula contains adjustments for actual activity, performance and need, proxied by the Standardized Mortality Ratio for under-75s (SMR < 75). Additional measures, such as deprivation, may better identify differential service need. We developed an age-standardized and an age-stratified model (over-18s, under-18s), with the outcome of expected/actual cost at postal sector/Local Authority level. A third, person-based model incorporated predictors of costs at the individual level. Each model incorporated both needs and supply variables, with the relative effects of their inclusion assessed. Mean estimated annual cost (2013/14) per English Local Authority area was £5 032 802 (sd: 3 951 158). Costs for drug misuse treatment represented the majority (83%) of costs. Models achieved adjusted R-squared values of 0.522 (age-standardized), 0.533 (age-stratified over-18s), 0.232 (age-stratified under-18s) and 0.470 (person-based). Improvements can be made to the existing resource allocation formulae to better reflect population need. The person-based model permits inclusion of a range of needs variables, in addition to strong predictors of cost based on the receipt of treatment in the previous year. Adoption of this revised person-based formula for substance misuse would shift resources towards more deprived areas. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Faculty of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

Aging in complex interdependency networks.

PubMed

Vural, Dervis C; Morrison, Greg; Mahadevan, L

2014-02-01

Although species longevity is subject to a diverse range of evolutionary forces, the mortality curves of a wide variety of organisms are rather similar. Here we argue that qualitative and quantitative features of aging can be reproduced by a simple model based on the interdependence of fault-prone agents on one other. In addition to fitting our theory to the empiric mortality curves of six very different organisms, we establish the dependence of lifetime and aging rate on initial conditions, damage and repair rate, and system size. We compare the size distributions of disease and death and see that they have qualitatively different properties. We show that aging patterns are independent of the details of interdependence network structure, which suggests that aging is a many-body effect, and that the qualitative and quantitative features of aging are not sensitively dependent on the details of dependency structure or its formation.

Age-related differential sensitivity to MK-801-induced locomotion and stereotypy in C57BL/6 mice

PubMed Central

Qi, Chunting; Zou, Hong; Zhang, Ruizhong; Zhao, Guoping; Jin, Meilei; Yu, Lei

2009-01-01

Psychomotor effects elicited by systemic administration of the noncompetitive NMDA (N-methyl-D-aspartate) receptor antagonist MK-801 (dizocilpine maleate) represent perturbation of glutamatergic pathways, providing an animal model for psychotic symptoms of schizophrenia. Hyperlocomotion and stereotypy are the two main psychomotor behaviors induced by MK-801. This study compared MK-801-induced hyperlocomotion and stereotypy in young (1-month old) and aged mice (12-month old), in order to determine how the aging process may influence these behaviors. The tested MK-801 doses ranged from 0.015 to 1 mg/kg. The data indicated that MK-801 impacted the aged mice more pronouncedly than the young mice, as both hyperlocomotion and stereotypy were increased significantly more in the aged mice relative to the young mice. These results suggest an age-related increase in MK-801 sensitivity in mice. PMID:18053981

Apolipoprotein E genotype does not moderate the associations of depressive symptoms, neuroticism and allostatic load with cognitive ability and cognitive aging in the Lothian Birth Cohort 1936

PubMed Central

Booth, Tom; Cox, Simon R.; Corley, Janie; Dykiert, Dominika; Redmond, Paul; Pattie, Alison; Taylor, Adele M.; Harris, Sarah E.; Starr, John M.; Deary, Ian J.

2018-01-01

Objectives In this replication-and-extension study, we tested whether depressive symptoms, neuroticism, and allostatic load (multisystem physiological dysregulation) were related to lower baseline cognitive ability and greater subsequent cognitive decline in older adults, and whether these relationships were moderated by the E4 allele of the apolipoprotein E (APOE) gene. We also tested whether allostatic load mediated the relationships between neuroticism and cognitive outcomes. Methods We used data from the Lothian Birth Cohort 1936 (n at Waves 1–3: 1,028 [M age = 69.5 y]; 820 [M duration since Wave 1 = 2.98 y]; 659 [M duration since Wave 1 = 6.74 y]). We fitted latent growth curve models of general cognitive ability (modeled using five cognitive tests) with groups of APOE E4 non-carriers and carriers. In separate models, depressive symptoms, neuroticism, and allostatic load predicted baseline cognitive ability and subsequent cognitive decline. In addition, models tested whether allostatic load mediated relationships between neuroticism and cognitive outcomes. Results Baseline cognitive ability had small-to-moderate negative associations with depressive symptoms (β range = -0.20 to -0.17), neuroticism (β range = -0.27 to -0.23), and allostatic load (β range = -0.11 to 0.09). Greater cognitive decline was linked to baseline allostatic load (β range = -0.98 to -0.83) and depressive symptoms (β range = -1.00 to -0.88). However, APOE E4 allele possession did not moderate the relationships of depressive symptoms, neuroticism and allostatic load with cognitive ability and cognitive decline. Additionally, the associations of neuroticism with cognitive ability and cognitive decline were not mediated through allostatic load. Conclusions Our results suggest that APOE E4 status does not moderate the relationships of depressive symptoms, neuroticism, and allostatic load with cognitive ability and cognitive decline in healthy older adults. The most notable positive finding in the current research was the strong association between allostatic load and cognitive decline. PMID:29451880

Pros and cons of estimating the reproduction number from early epidemic growth rate of influenza A (H1N1) 2009.

PubMed

Nishiura, Hiroshi; Chowell, Gerardo; Safan, Muntaser; Castillo-Chavez, Carlos

2010-01-07

In many parts of the world, the exponential growth rate of infections during the initial epidemic phase has been used to make statistical inferences on the reproduction number, R, a summary measure of the transmission potential for the novel influenza A (H1N1) 2009. The growth rate at the initial stage of the epidemic in Japan led to estimates for R in the range 2.0 to 2.6, capturing the intensity of the initial outbreak among school-age children in May 2009. An updated estimate of R that takes into account the epidemic data from 29 May to 14 July is provided. An age-structured renewal process is employed to capture the age-dependent transmission dynamics, jointly estimating the reproduction number, the age-dependent susceptibility and the relative contribution of imported cases to secondary transmission. Pitfalls in estimating epidemic growth rates are identified and used for scrutinizing and re-assessing the results of our earlier estimate of R. Maximum likelihood estimates of R using the data from 29 May to 14 July ranged from 1.21 to 1.35. The next-generation matrix, based on our age-structured model, predicts that only 17.5% of the population will experience infection by the end of the first pandemic wave. Our earlier estimate of R did not fully capture the population-wide epidemic in quantifying the next-generation matrix from the estimated growth rate during the initial stage of the pandemic in Japan. In order to quantify R from the growth rate of cases, it is essential that the selected model captures the underlying transmission dynamics embedded in the data. Exploring additional epidemiological information will be useful for assessing the temporal dynamics. Although the simple concept of R is more easily grasped by the general public than that of the next-generation matrix, the matrix incorporating detailed information (e.g., age-specificity) is essential for reducing the levels of uncertainty in predictions and for assisting public health policymaking. Model-based prediction and policymaking are best described by sharing fundamental notions of heterogeneous risks of infection and death with non-experts to avoid potential confusion and/or possible misuse of modelling results.

Theoretical investigation on the mass loss impact on asteroseismic grid-based estimates of mass, radius, and age for RGB stars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valle, G.; Dell'Omodarme, M.; Prada Moroni, P. G.; Degl'Innocenti, S.

2018-01-01

Aims: We aim to perform a theoretical evaluation of the impact of the mass loss indetermination on asteroseismic grid based estimates of masses, radii, and ages of stars in the red giant branch (RGB) phase. Methods: We adopted the SCEPtER pipeline on a grid spanning the mass range [0.8; 1.8] M⊙. As observational constraints, we adopted the star effective temperatures, the metallicity [Fe/H], the average large frequency spacing Δν, and the frequency of maximum oscillation power νmax. The mass loss was modelled following a Reimers parametrization with the two different efficiencies η = 0.4 and η = 0.8. Results: In the RGB phase, the average random relative error (owing only to observational uncertainty) on mass and age estimates is about 8% and 30% respectively. The bias in mass and age estimates caused by the adoption of a wrong mass loss parameter in the recovery is minor for the vast majority of the RGB evolution. The biases get larger only after the RGB bump. In the last 2.5% of the RGB lifetime the error on the mass determination reaches 6.5% becoming larger than the random error component in this evolutionary phase. The error on the age estimate amounts to 9%, that is, equal to the random error uncertainty. These results are independent of the stellar metallicity [Fe/H] in the explored range. Conclusions: Asteroseismic-based estimates of stellar mass, radius, and age in the RGB phase can be considered mass loss independent within the range (η ∈ [0.0,0.8]) as long as the target is in an evolutionary phase preceding the RGB bump.

Child Marriage and Intimate Partner Violence in Rural Bangladesh: A Longitudinal Multilevel Analysis

PubMed Central

Yount, Kathryn M.; Crandall, AliceAnn; Cheong, Yuk Fai; Osypuk, Theresa L.; Bates, Lisa M.; Naved, Ruchira T.; Schuler, Sidney Ruth

2016-01-01

Child marriage (before age 18) is a risk factor for intimate partner violence (IPV) against women. Worldwide, Bangladesh has the highest prevalence of IPV and very early child marriage (before age 15). How the community prevalence of very early child marriage influences a woman’s risk of IPV is unknown. Using panel data (2013–2014) from 3,355 women first married 4–12 years prior in 77 Bangladeshi villages, we tested the protective effect of a woman’s later first marriage (at age 18 or older), the adverse effect of a higher village prevalence of very early child marriage, and whether any protective effect of a woman’s later first marriage was diminished or reversed in villages where very early child marriage was more prevalent. Almost one-half (44.5 %) of women reported incident physical IPV, and 68.9 % had married before age 18. The village-level incidence of physical IPV ranged from 11.4 % to 75.0 %; the mean age at first marriage ranged from 14.8 to 18.0 years. The mean village-level prevalence of very early child marriage ranged from 3.9 % to 51.9 %. In main-effects models, marrying at 18 or later protected against physical IPV, and more prevalent very early child marriage before age 15 was a risk factor. The interaction of individual later marriage and the village prevalence of very early child marriage was positive; thus, the likely protective effect of marrying later was negated in villages where very early child marriage was prevalent. Collectively reducing very early child marriage may be needed to protect women from IPV. PMID:27812927

A kinematic model for the formation of the Siletz-Crescent forearc terrane by capture of coherent fragments of the Farallon and Resurrection plates

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCrory, Patricia A.; Wilson, Douglas S.

2013-01-01

The volcanic basement of the Oregon and Washington Coast ranges has been proposed to represent a pair of tracks of the Yellowstone hotspot formed at a mid-ocean ridge during the early Cenozoic. This interpretation has been questioned on many grounds, especially that the range of ages does not match the offshore spreading rates and that the presence of continental coarse clastic sediments is difficult to reconcile with fast convergence rates between the oceanic plates and North America. Updates to basement geochronology and plate motion history reveal that these objections are much less serious than when they were first raised. Forward plate kinematic modeling reveals that predicted basement ages can be consistent with the observed range of about 55–49 Ma, and that the entire basement terrane can form within about 300 km of continental sources for clastic sediments. This kinematic model indicates that there is no firm reason to reject the near-ridge hotspot hypothesis on the basis of plate motions. A novel element of the model is the Resurrection plate, previously proposed to exist between the Farallon and Kula plates. By including the defunct Resurrection plate in our reconstruction, we are able to model the Farallon hotspot track as docking against the Oregon subduction margin starting about 53 Ma, followed by docking of the Resurrection track to the north starting about 48 Ma. Accretion of the Farallon plate fragment and partial subduction of the Resurrection fragment complicates the three-dimensional structure of the modern Cascadia forearc. We interpret the so-called “E” layer beneath Vancouver Island to be part of the Resurrection fragment. Our new kinematic model of mobile terranes within the Paleogene North American plate boundary allows reinterpretation of the three-dimensional structure of the Cascadia forearc and its relationship to ongoing seismotectonic processes.

Demographics of an experimentally released population of elk in Great Smoky Mountains National Park

USGS Publications Warehouse

Murrow, Jennifer L.; Clark, Joseph D.; Delozier, E. Kim

2009-01-01

We assessed the potential for reestablishing elk (Cervus elaphus) in Great Smoky Mountains National Park (GSMNP), USA, by estimating vital rates of experimentally released animals from 2001 to 2006. Annual survival rates for calves ranged from 0.333 to 1.0 and averaged 0.592. Annual survival for subadult and adult elk (i.e., ≥1 yr of age) ranged from 0.690 to 0.933, depending on age and sex. We used those and other vital rates to model projected population growth and viability using a stochastic individual-based model. The annual growth rate (λ) of the modeled population over a 25-year period averaged 0.996 and declined from 1.059 the first year to 0.990 at year 25. The modeled population failed to attain a positive 25-year mean growth rate in 46.0% of the projections. Poor calf recruitment was an important determinant of low population growth. Predation by black bears (Ursus americanus) was the dominant calf mortality factor. Most of the variance of growth projections was due to demographic variation resulting from the small population size (n  =  61). Management actions such as predator control may help increase calf recruitment, but our projections suggest that the GSMNP elk population may be at risk for some time because of high demographic variation.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brooker, A.; Gonder, J.; Lopp, S.

The Automotive Deployment Option Projection Tool (ADOPT) is a light-duty vehicle consumer choice and stock model supported by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Vehicle Technologies Office. It estimates technology improvement impacts on U.S. light-duty vehicles sales, petroleum use, and greenhouse gas emissions. ADOPT uses techniques from the multinomial logit method and the mixed logit method estimate sales. Specifically, it estimates sales based on the weighted value of key attributes including vehicle price, fuel cost, acceleration, range and usable volume. The average importance of several attributes changes nonlinearly across its range and changes with income. For several attributes, a distribution ofmore » importance around the average value is used to represent consumer heterogeneity. The majority of existing vehicle makes, models, and trims are included to fully represent the market. The Corporate Average Fuel Economy regulations are enforced. The sales feed into the ADOPT stock model. It captures key aspects for summing petroleum use and greenhouse gas emissions This includes capturing the change in vehicle miles traveled by vehicle age, the creation of new model options based on the success of existing vehicles, new vehicle option introduction rate limits, and survival rates by vehicle age. ADOPT has been extensively validated with historical sales data. It matches in key dimensions including sales by fuel economy, acceleration, price, vehicle size class, and powertrain across multiple years. A graphical user interface provides easy and efficient use. It manages the inputs, simulation, and results.« less

Using soil properties to predict in vivo bioavailability of lead in soils.

PubMed

Wijayawardena, M A Ayanka; Naidu, Ravi; Megharaj, Mallavarapu; Lamb, Dane; Thavamani, Palanisami; Kuchel, Tim

2015-11-01

Soil plays a significant role in controlling the potential bioavailability of contaminants in the environment. In this study, eleven soils were used to investigate the relationship between soil properties and relative bioavailability (RB) of lead (Pb). To minimise the effect of source of Pb on in vivo bioavailability, uncontaminated study soils were spiked with 1500 mg Pb/kg soil and aged for 10-12 months prior to investigating the relationships between soil properties and in vivo RB of Pb using swine model. The biological responses to oral administration of Pb in aqueous phase or as spiked soils were compared by applying a two-compartment pharmacokinetic model to blood Pb concentration. The study revealed that RB of Pb from aged soils ranged from 30±9% to 83±7%. The very different RB of Pb in these soils was attributed to variations in the soils' physico-chemical properties. This was established using sorption studies showing: firstly, Freundlich partition coefficients that ranged from 21 to 234; and secondly, a strongly significant (R(2)=0.94, P<0.001) exponential relationship between RB and Freundlich partition coefficient (Kd). This simple exponential model can be used to predict relative bioavailability of Pb in contaminated soils. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first such model derived using sorption partition coefficient to predict the relative bioavailability of Pb. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effects of Screening and Systemic Adjuvant Therapy on ER-Specific US Breast Cancer Mortality

PubMed Central

Munoz, Diego; Near, Aimee M.; van Ravesteyn, Nicolien T.; Lee, Sandra J.; Schechter, Clyde B.; Alagoz, Oguzhan; Berry, Donald A.; Burnside, Elizabeth S.; Chang, Yaojen; Chisholm, Gary; de Koning, Harry J.; Ali Ergun, Mehmet; Heijnsdijk, Eveline A. M.; Huang, Hui; Stout, Natasha K.; Sprague, Brian L.; Trentham-Dietz, Amy; Mandelblatt, Jeanne S.

2014-01-01

Background Molecular characterization of breast cancer allows subtype-directed interventions. Estrogen receptor (ER) is the longest-established molecular marker. Methods We used six established population models with ER-specific input parameters on age-specific incidence, disease natural history, mammography characteristics, and treatment effects to quantify the impact of screening and adjuvant therapy on age-adjusted US breast cancer mortality by ER status from 1975 to 2000. Outcomes included stage-shifts and absolute and relative reductions in mortality; sensitivity analyses evaluated the impact of varying screening frequency or accuracy. Results In the year 2000, actual screening and adjuvant treatment reduced breast cancer mortality by a median of 17 per 100000 women (model range = 13–21) and 5 per 100000 women (model range = 3–6) for ER-positive and ER-negative cases, respectively, relative to no screening and no adjuvant treatment. For ER-positive cases, adjuvant treatment made a higher relative contribution to breast cancer mortality reduction than screening, whereas for ER-negative cases the relative contributions were similar for screening and adjuvant treatment. ER-negative cases were less likely to be screen-detected than ER-positive cases (35.1% vs 51.2%), but when screen-detected yielded a greater survival gain (five-year breast cancer survival = 35.6% vs 30.7%). Screening biennially would have captured a lower proportion of mortality reduction than annual screening for ER-negative vs ER-positive cases (model range = 80.2%–87.8% vs 85.7%–96.5%). Conclusion As advances in risk assessment facilitate identification of women with increased risk of ER-negative breast cancer, additional mortality reductions could be realized through more frequent targeted screening, provided these benefits are balanced against screening harms. PMID:25255803

Post-breakup tectonics in southeast Brazil from thermochronological data and combined inverse-forward thermal history modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cogné, Nathan; Gallagher, Kerry; Cobbold, Peter R.; Riccomini, Claudio; Gautheron, Cecile

2012-11-01

The continental margin of southeast Brazil is elevated. Onshore Tertiary basins and Late Cretaceous/Paleogene intrusions are good evidence for post breakup tectono-magmatic activity. To constrain the impact of post-rift reactivation on the geological history of the area, we carried out a new thermochronological study. Apatite fission track ages range from 60.7 ± 1.9 Ma to 129.3 ± 4.3 Ma, mean track lengths from 11.41 ± 0.23 μm to 14.31 ± 0.24 μm and a subset of the (U-Th)/He ages range from 45.1 ± 1.5 to 122.4 ± 2.5 Ma. Results of inverse thermal history modeling generally support the conclusions from an earlier study for a Late Cretaceous phase of cooling. Around the onshore Taubaté Basin, for a limited number of samples, the first detectable period of cooling occurred during the Early Tertiary. The inferred thermal histories for many samples also imply subsequent reheating followed by Neogene cooling. Given the uncertainty of the inversion results, we did deterministic forward modeling to assess the range of possibilities of this Tertiary part of the thermal history. The evidence for reheating seems to be robust around the Taubaté Basin, but elsewhere the data cannot discriminate between this and a less complex thermal history. However, forward modeling results and geological information support the conclusion that the whole area underwent cooling during the Neogene. The synchronicity of the cooling phases with Andean tectonics and those in NE Brazil leads us to assume a plate-wide compressional stress that reactivated inherited structures. The present-day topographic relief of the margin reflects a contribution from post-breakup reactivation and uplift.