Detecting biodiversity hotspots by species-area relationships: a case study of Mediterranean beetles.

PubMed

Fattorini, Simone

2006-08-01

Any method of identifying hotspots should take into account the effect of area on species richness. I examined the importance of the species-area relationship in determining tenebrionid (Coleoptera: Tenebrionidae) hotspots on the Aegean Islands (Greece). Thirty-two islands and 170 taxa (species and subspecies) were included in this study. I tested several species-area relationship models with linear and nonlinear regressions, including power exponential, negative exponential, logistic, Gompertz, Weibull, Lomolino, and He-Legendre functions. Islands with positive residuals were identified as hotspots. I also analyzed the values of the C parameter of the power function and the simple species-area ratios. Species richness was significantly correlated with island area for all models. The power function model was the most convenient one. Most functions, however identified certain islands as hotspots. The importance of endemics in insular biotas should be evaluated carefully because they are of high conservation concern. The simple use of the species-area relationship can be problematic when areas with no endemics are included. Therefore the importance of endemics should be evaluated according to different methods, such as percentages, to take into account different levels of endemism and different kinds of "endemics" (e.g., endemic to single islands vs. endemic to the archipelago). Because the species-area relationship is a key pattern in ecology, my findings can be applied at broader scales.

Systematic Review of Model-Based Economic Evaluations of Treatments for Alzheimer's Disease.

PubMed

Hernandez, Luis; Ozen, Asli; DosSantos, Rodrigo; Getsios, Denis

2016-07-01

Numerous economic evaluations using decision-analytic models have assessed the cost effectiveness of treatments for Alzheimer's disease (AD) in the last two decades. It is important to understand the methods used in the existing models of AD and how they could impact results, as they could inform new model-based economic evaluations of treatments for AD. The aim of this systematic review was to provide a detailed description on the relevant aspects and components of existing decision-analytic models of AD, identifying areas for improvement and future development, and to conduct a quality assessment of the included studies. We performed a systematic and comprehensive review of cost-effectiveness studies of pharmacological treatments for AD published in the last decade (January 2005 to February 2015) that used decision-analytic models, also including studies considering patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI). The background information of the included studies and specific information on the decision-analytic models, including their approach and components, assumptions, data sources, analyses, and results, were obtained from each study. A description of how the modeling approaches and assumptions differ across studies, identifying areas for improvement and future development, is provided. At the end, we present our own view of the potential future directions of decision-analytic models of AD and the challenges they might face. The included studies present a variety of different approaches, assumptions, and scope of decision-analytic models used in the economic evaluation of pharmacological treatments of AD. The major areas for improvement in future models of AD are to include domains of cognition, function, and behavior, rather than cognition alone; include a detailed description of how data used to model the natural course of disease progression were derived; state and justify the economic model selected and structural assumptions and limitations; provide a detailed (rather than high-level) description of the cost components included in the model; and report on the face-, internal-, and cross-validity of the model to strengthen the credibility and confidence in model results. The quality scores of most studies were rated as fair to good (average 87.5, range 69.5-100, in a scale of 0-100). Despite the advancements in decision-analytic models of AD, there remain several areas of improvement that are necessary to more appropriately and realistically capture the broad nature of AD and the potential benefits of treatments in future models of AD.

Maps, Models and Data from Southeastern Great Basin PFA, Phase II Project

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nash, Greg

This submission includes composite risk segment models in raster format for permeability, heat of the earth, and MT, as well as the final PFA model of geothermal exploration risk in Southwestern Utah, USA. Additionally, this submission has data regarding hydrothermally altered areas, and opal sinter deposits in the study area. All of this information lends to the understanding and exploration for hidden geothermal systems in the area.

Power Scaling Fiber Amplifiers Using Very-Large-Mode-Area Fibers

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-02-23

fiber lasers are limited to below 1kW due to limited mode size and thermal issues, particularly thermal mode instability (TMI). Two comprehensive models...accurately modeling very- large-mode-area fiber amplifiers while simultaneously including thermal lensing and TMI. This model was applied to investigate...expected resilience to TMI. 15. SUBJECT TERMS Fiber amplifier, high power laser, thermal mode instability, large-mode-area fiber, ytterbium-doped

Groundwater Pathway Model for the Los Alamos National Laboratory Technical Area 21, Material Disposal Area T

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stauffer, Philip H.; Levitt, Daniel G.; Miller, Terry Ann

2017-02-09

This report consists of four major sections, including this introductory section. Section 2 provides an overview of previous investigations related to the development of the current sitescale model. The methods and data used to develop the 3-D groundwater model and the techniques used to distill that model into a form suitable for use in the GoldSim models are discussed in Section 3. Section 4 presents the results of the model development effort and discusses some of the uncertainties involved. Three attachments that provide details about the components and data used in this groundwater pathway model are also included with thismore » report.« less

An integrated regional planning/microsimulation model for the Buffalo/Niagara Falls area

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-04-01

This presentation examines the major planning issues facing the Buffalo and Niagara Falls area, which include freight, cross border congestion, and domestic issues. A Transportation Analysis and Simulation System (TRANSIMS) model is discussed that co...

Innovative Liner Concepts: Experiments and Impedance Modeling of Liners Including the Effect of Bias Flow

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kelly, Jeff; Betts, Juan Fernando; Fuller, Chris

2000-01-01

The study of normal impedance of perforated plate acoustic liners including the effect of bias flow was studied. Two impedance models were developed by modeling the internal flows of perforate orifices as infinite tubes with the inclusion of end corrections to handle finite length effects. These models assumed incompressible and compressible flows, respectively, between the far field and the perforate orifice. The incompressible model was used to predict impedance results for perforated plates with percent open areas ranging from 5% to 15%. The predicted resistance results showed better agreement with experiments for the higher percent open area samples. The agreement also tended to deteriorate as bias flow was increased. For perforated plates with percent open areas ranging from 1% to 5%, the compressible model was used to predict impedance results. The model predictions were closer to the experimental resistance results for the 2% to 3% open area samples. The predictions tended to deteriorate as bias flow was increased. The reactance results were well predicted by the models for the higher percent open area, but deteriorated as the percent open area was lowered (5%) and bias flow was increased. A fit was done on the incompressible model to the experimental database. The fit was performed using an optimization routine that found the optimal set of multiplication coefficients to the non-dimensional groups that minimized the least squares slope error between predictions and experiments. The result of the fit indicated that terms not associated with bias flow required a greater degree of correction than the terms associated with the bias flow. This model improved agreement with experiments by nearly 15% for the low percent open area (5%) samples when compared to the unfitted model. The fitted model and the unfitted model performed equally well for the higher percent open area (10% and 15%).

Estimating the Effects of the Terminal Area Productivity Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, David A.; Kostiuk, Peter F.; Hemm, Robert V., Jr.; Wingrove, Earl R., III; Shapiro, Gerald

1997-01-01

The report describes methods and results of an analysis of the technical and economic benefits of the systems to be developed in the NASA Terminal Area Productivity (TAP) program. A runway capacity model using parameters that reflect the potential impact of the TAP technologies is described. The runway capacity model feeds airport specific models which are also described. The capacity estimates are used with a queuing model to calculate aircraft delays, and TAP benefits are determined by calculating the savings due to reduced delays. The report includes benefit estimates for Boston Logan and Detroit Wayne County airports. An appendix includes a description and listing of the runway capacity model.

A review of micro-contact physics for microelectromechanical systems (MEMS) metal contact switches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toler, Benjamin F.; Coutu, Ronald A., Jr.; McBride, John W.

2013-10-01

Innovations in relevant micro-contact areas are highlighted, these include, design, contact resistance modeling, contact materials, performance and reliability. For each area the basic theory and relevant innovations are explored. A brief comparison of actuation methods is provided to show why electrostatic actuation is most commonly used by radio frequency microelectromechanical systems designers. An examination of the important characteristics of the contact interface such as modeling and material choice is discussed. Micro-contact resistance models based on plastic, elastic-plastic and elastic deformations are reviewed. Much of the modeling for metal contact micro-switches centers around contact area and surface roughness. Surface roughness and its effect on contact area is stressed when considering micro-contact resistance modeling. Finite element models and various approaches for describing surface roughness are compared. Different contact materials to include gold, gold alloys, carbon nanotubes, composite gold-carbon nanotubes, ruthenium, ruthenium oxide, as well as tungsten have been shown to enhance contact performance and reliability with distinct trade offs for each. Finally, a review of physical and electrical failure modes witnessed by researchers are detailed and examined.

Digital-computer model of the principal ground-water reservoir in Beryl-Enterprise area, Escalante Desert, Utah

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mower, R.W.; Bartholoma, Scott D.

1981-01-01

The computer model presented in this report was used to simulate the principal ground-water reservoir in the Beryl-Enterprise area, Escalante Desert, Beaver, Iron, and Washington Counties, Utah (Mower, 1981). The details of the formulation of the model, testing of its validity, and the results of predictions are discussed in the cited report. This report was prepared as part of a cooperative program with the Utah Department of Natural Resources, Division of Water Rights, to investigate the water resources of the State. It is an addendum to the principal interpretive report, and it is presented in order to make the model available to anyone desiring to use it for additional predictions. The main program used was the finite-difference model for aquifer simulation in two dimensions documented by Trescott, Pinder, and Larson, (1976). Minor modifications were made to adapt the program to the principal ground-water reservoir in the Beryl-Enterprise area. All the modifications are listed at the top of table 1, and were related to parameter input and output, thus none of the computational subroutines were affected. The parameter arrays (table 1) and map of the area with a grid overlay (pi. 1) are given on following pages. The model simulates an aquifer- under water-table conditions, mostly composed of unconsoliuated basin-fill deposits. The boundaries of the modeled area (pi. 1) generally coincide with the boundaries of the saturated basin fill. However, in the southwest-central part of the model, permeable consolidated rock is included; and that part of the northern boundary between the Black and Wah Wah Mountains is an arbitrary boundary in basin fill between the Beryl-Enterprise area and the Milford area that lies to the northeast. The ignimbrite at Table Butte also was included in the active part of the model. The model includes simulation of discharge by evapotranspiration from phreatophytes. The areal recharge array was used to simulate recharge entering the modeled area at its boundaries and from stream infiltration in the southern corner near Enterprise. In addition, this array included discharge by wells operated during the period simulated as being under steady-state conditions (virtually 1937), and discharging wells simulating flow of water northeast to the Milford area. These wells also were included in the transient-state simulation (1937-77), although any changes in this discharge were modeled using the pumpage array (Group IV, table 1). The wells simulating outflow to the Milford area are shown on plate 1, but the wells pumping in 1937 are not shown unless they also were pumped during 1937-77. The pumpage array was used to simulate: (1) Discharge from wells, (2) discharge after 1977 from a mine in the southwest-central part of the model and recharge resulting form the mine discharge (pi. 1), and (3) changes in discharge in wells operated during the steady-state period. Recharge from irrigation was simulated by reducing pumpage from nodes where irrigation occurs. Discharge from all wells was reduced by 5 percent by multiplying all pumpage by 0.95 in the computer program. North of Newcastle, in T. 35 S., R. 15 W., pumpage was reduced by 35 percent because surface materials are very permeable.

Modelling small-area inequality in premature mortality using years of life lost rates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Congdon, Peter

2013-04-01

Analysis of premature mortality variations via standardized expected years of life lost (SEYLL) measures raises questions about suitable modelling for mortality data, especially when developing SEYLL profiles for areas with small populations. Existing fixed effects estimation methods take no account of correlations in mortality levels over ages, causes, socio-ethnic groups or areas. They also do not specify an underlying data generating process, or a likelihood model that can include trends or correlations, and are likely to produce unstable estimates for small-areas. An alternative strategy involves a fully specified data generation process, and a random effects model which "borrows strength" to produce stable SEYLL estimates, allowing for correlations between ages, areas and socio-ethnic groups. The resulting modelling strategy is applied to gender-specific differences in SEYLL rates in small-areas in NE London, and to cause-specific mortality for leading causes of premature mortality in these areas.

Methods for estimating population density in data-limited areas: evaluating regression and tree-based models in Peru.

PubMed

Anderson, Weston; Guikema, Seth; Zaitchik, Ben; Pan, William

2014-01-01

Obtaining accurate small area estimates of population is essential for policy and health planning but is often difficult in countries with limited data. In lieu of available population data, small area estimate models draw information from previous time periods or from similar areas. This study focuses on model-based methods for estimating population when no direct samples are available in the area of interest. To explore the efficacy of tree-based models for estimating population density, we compare six different model structures including Random Forest and Bayesian Additive Regression Trees. Results demonstrate that without information from prior time periods, non-parametric tree-based models produced more accurate predictions than did conventional regression methods. Improving estimates of population density in non-sampled areas is important for regions with incomplete census data and has implications for economic, health and development policies.

Methods for Estimating Population Density in Data-Limited Areas: Evaluating Regression and Tree-Based Models in Peru

PubMed Central

Anderson, Weston; Guikema, Seth; Zaitchik, Ben; Pan, William

2014-01-01

Obtaining accurate small area estimates of population is essential for policy and health planning but is often difficult in countries with limited data. In lieu of available population data, small area estimate models draw information from previous time periods or from similar areas. This study focuses on model-based methods for estimating population when no direct samples are available in the area of interest. To explore the efficacy of tree-based models for estimating population density, we compare six different model structures including Random Forest and Bayesian Additive Regression Trees. Results demonstrate that without information from prior time periods, non-parametric tree-based models produced more accurate predictions than did conventional regression methods. Improving estimates of population density in non-sampled areas is important for regions with incomplete census data and has implications for economic, health and development policies. PMID:24992657

A GPS coverage model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Skidmore, Trent A.

1994-01-01

The results of several case studies using the Global Positioning System coverage model developed at Ohio University are summarized. Presented are results pertaining to outage area, outage dynamics, and availability. Input parameters to the model include the satellite orbit data, service area of interest, geometry requirements, and horizon and antenna mask angles. It is shown for precision-landing Category 1 requirements that the planned GPS 21 Primary Satellite Constellation produces significant outage area and unavailability. It is also shown that a decrease in the user equivalent range error dramatically decreases outage area and improves the service availability.

The effect of nitrogen loading on on-site system design: a model for determining land application area size.

PubMed

McCardell, A; Davison, L; Edwards, A

2005-01-01

Designers of on-site wastewater management systems have six opportunities to remove pollutants of concern from the aqueous waste stream before it reaches ground or surface waters. These opportunities occur at source, at point of collection (primary treatment), secondary treatment, tertiary treatment, land application and buffers. This paper presents a computer based model for the sizing of on-site system land application areas applicable to the Lismore area in Northern New South Wales, a region of high rainfall. Inputs to the model include daily climatic data, soil type, number of people loading the system and size of housing allotment. Constraints include allowable phosphorus export, nitrogen export and hydraulic percolation. In the Lismore area nitrogen is the nutrient of most concern. In areas close to environmentally sensitive waterways, and in dense developments, the allowable annual nitrogen export becomes the main factor determining the land application area size. The model offers system designers the opportunity to test various combinations of nitrogen attenuation strategies (source control, secondary treatment) in order to create a solution which offers an acceptable nitrogen export rate while meeting the client's household and financial needs. The model runs on an Excel spreadsheet and has been developed by Lismore City Council.

Evaluation of MEDALUS model for desertification hazard zonation using GIS; study area: Iyzad Khast plain, Iran.

PubMed

Farajzadeh, Manuchehr; Egbal, Mahbobeh Nik

2007-08-15

In this study, the MEDALUS model along with GIS mapping techniques are used to determine desertification hazards for a province of Iran to determine the desertification hazard. After creating a desertification database including 20 parameters, the first steps consisted of developing maps of four indices for the MEDALUS model including climate, soil, vegetation and land use were prepared. Since these parameters have mostly been presented for the Mediterranean region in the past, the next step included the addition of other indicators such as ground water and wind erosion. Then all of the layers weighted by environmental conditions present in the area were used (following the same MEDALUS framework) before a desertification map was prepared. The comparison of two maps based on the original and modified MEDALUS models indicates that the addition of more regionally-specific parameters into the model allows for a more accurate representation of desertification processes across the Iyzad Khast plain. The major factors affecting desertification in the area are climate, wind erosion and low land quality management, vegetation degradation and the salinization of soil and water resources.

Predicting tree species presence and basal area in Utah: A comparison of stochastic gradient boosting, generalized additive models, and tree-based methods

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moisen, Gretchen G.; Freeman, E.A.; Blackard, J.A.; Frescino, T.S.; Zimmermann, N.E.; Edwards, T.C.

2006-01-01

Many efforts are underway to produce broad-scale forest attribute maps by modelling forest class and structure variables collected in forest inventories as functions of satellite-based and biophysical information. Typically, variants of classification and regression trees implemented in Rulequest's?? See5 and Cubist (for binary and continuous responses, respectively) are the tools of choice in many of these applications. These tools are widely used in large remote sensing applications, but are not easily interpretable, do not have ties with survey estimation methods, and use proprietary unpublished algorithms. Consequently, three alternative modelling techniques were compared for mapping presence and basal area of 13 species located in the mountain ranges of Utah, USA. The modelling techniques compared included the widely used See5/Cubist, generalized additive models (GAMs), and stochastic gradient boosting (SGB). Model performance was evaluated using independent test data sets. Evaluation criteria for mapping species presence included specificity, sensitivity, Kappa, and area under the curve (AUC). Evaluation criteria for the continuous basal area variables included correlation and relative mean squared error. For predicting species presence (setting thresholds to maximize Kappa), SGB had higher values for the majority of the species for specificity and Kappa, while GAMs had higher values for the majority of the species for sensitivity. In evaluating resultant AUC values, GAM and/or SGB models had significantly better results than the See5 models where significant differences could be detected between models. For nine out of 13 species, basal area prediction results for all modelling techniques were poor (correlations less than 0.5 and relative mean squared errors greater than 0.8), but SGB provided the most stable predictions in these instances. SGB and Cubist performed equally well for modelling basal area for three species with moderate prediction success, while all three modelling tools produced comparably good predictions (correlation of 0.68 and relative mean squared error of 0.56) for one species. ?? 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Prospectivity Modeling of Karstic Groundwater Using a Sequential Exploration Approach in Tepal Area, Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharifi, Fereydoun; Arab-Amiri, Ali Reza; Kamkar-Rouhani, Abolghasem; Yousefi, Mahyar; Davoodabadi-Farahani, Meysam

2017-09-01

The purpose of this study is water prospectivity modeling (WPM) for recognizing karstic water-bearing zones by using analyses of geo-exploration data in Kal-Qorno valley, located in Tepal area, north of Iran. For this, a sequential exploration method applied on geo-evidential data to delineate target areas for further exploration. In this regard, two major exploration phases including regional and local scales were performed. In the first phase, indicator geological features, structures and lithological units, were used to model groundwater prospectivity as a regional scale. In this phase, for karstic WPM, fuzzy lithological and structural evidence layers were generated and combined using fuzzy operators. After generating target areas using WPM, in the second phase geophysical surveys including gravimetry and geoelectrical resistivity were carried out on the recognized high potential zones as a local scale exploration. Finally the results of geophysical analyses in the second phase were used to select suitable drilling locations to access and extract karstic groundwater in the study area.

Is There a Canonical Cortical Circuit for the Cholinergic System? Anatomical Differences Across Common Model Systems

PubMed Central

Coppola, Jennifer J.; Disney, Anita A.

2018-01-01

Acetylcholine (ACh) is believed to act as a neuromodulator in cortical circuits that support cognition, specifically in processes including learning, memory consolidation, vigilance, arousal and attention. The cholinergic modulation of cortical processes is studied in many model systems including rodents, cats and primates. Further, these studies are performed in cortical areas ranging from the primary visual cortex to the prefrontal cortex and using diverse methodologies. The results of these studies have been combined into singular models of function—a practice based on an implicit assumption that the various model systems are equivalent and interchangeable. However, comparative anatomy both within and across species reveals important differences in the structure of the cholinergic system. Here, we will review anatomical data including innervation patterns, receptor expression, synthesis and release compared across species and cortical area with a focus on rodents and primates. We argue that these data suggest no canonical cortical model system exists for the cholinergic system. Further, we will argue that as a result, care must be taken both in combining data from studies across cortical areas and species, and in choosing the best model systems to improve our understanding and support of human health. PMID:29440996

Is There a Canonical Cortical Circuit for the Cholinergic System? Anatomical Differences Across Common Model Systems.

PubMed

Coppola, Jennifer J; Disney, Anita A

2018-01-01

Acetylcholine (ACh) is believed to act as a neuromodulator in cortical circuits that support cognition, specifically in processes including learning, memory consolidation, vigilance, arousal and attention. The cholinergic modulation of cortical processes is studied in many model systems including rodents, cats and primates. Further, these studies are performed in cortical areas ranging from the primary visual cortex to the prefrontal cortex and using diverse methodologies. The results of these studies have been combined into singular models of function-a practice based on an implicit assumption that the various model systems are equivalent and interchangeable. However, comparative anatomy both within and across species reveals important differences in the structure of the cholinergic system. Here, we will review anatomical data including innervation patterns, receptor expression, synthesis and release compared across species and cortical area with a focus on rodents and primates. We argue that these data suggest no canonical cortical model system exists for the cholinergic system. Further, we will argue that as a result, care must be taken both in combining data from studies across cortical areas and species, and in choosing the best model systems to improve our understanding and support of human health.

Development of simulated groundwater-contributing areas to selected streams, ponds, coastal water bodies, and production wells in the Plymouth-Carver region and Cape Cod, Massachusetts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Carlson, Carl S.; Masterson, John P.; Walter, Donald A.; Barbaro, Jeffrey R.

2017-12-21

IntroductionThe U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in support of the Massachusetts Estuaries Project (MEP), delineated groundwater-contributing areas to various hydrologic receptors including ponds, streams, and coastal water bodies throughout southeastern Massachusetts, including portions of the Plymouth-Carver aquifer system and all of Cape Cod. These contributing areas were delineated over a 6-year period from 2003 through 2008 by using previously published regional USGS groundwater-flow models for the Plymouth-Carver region (Masterson and others, 2009), the Sagamore (western) and Monomoy (eastern) flow lenses of Cape Cod (Walter and Whealan, 2005), and lower Cape Cod (Masterson, 2004). The original USGS groundwater-contributing areas were subsequently revised in some locations by the MEP to remove modeling artifacts or to make the contributing areas more consistent with site-specific hydrologic conditions without further USGS review. This report describes the process used to create the USGS groundwater-contributing areas and provides these model results in their original format in a single, publicly accessible publication.

Predicting Grizzly Bear Density in Western North America

PubMed Central

Mowat, Garth; Heard, Douglas C.; Schwarz, Carl J.

2013-01-01

Conservation of grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) is often controversial and the disagreement often is focused on the estimates of density used to calculate allowable kill. Many recent estimates of grizzly bear density are now available but field-based estimates will never be available for more than a small portion of hunted populations. Current methods of predicting density in areas of management interest are subjective and untested. Objective methods have been proposed, but these statistical models are so dependent on results from individual study areas that the models do not generalize well. We built regression models to relate grizzly bear density to ultimate measures of ecosystem productivity and mortality for interior and coastal ecosystems in North America. We used 90 measures of grizzly bear density in interior ecosystems, of which 14 were currently known to be unoccupied by grizzly bears. In coastal areas, we used 17 measures of density including 2 unoccupied areas. Our best model for coastal areas included a negative relationship with tree cover and positive relationships with the proportion of salmon in the diet and topographic ruggedness, which was correlated with precipitation. Our best interior model included 3 variables that indexed terrestrial productivity, 1 describing vegetation cover, 2 indices of human use of the landscape and, an index of topographic ruggedness. We used our models to predict current population sizes across Canada and present these as alternatives to current population estimates. Our models predict fewer grizzly bears in British Columbia but more bears in Canada than in the latest status review. These predictions can be used to assess population status, set limits for total human-caused mortality, and for conservation planning, but because our predictions are static, they cannot be used to assess population trend. PMID:24367552

Predicting grizzly bear density in western North America.

PubMed

Mowat, Garth; Heard, Douglas C; Schwarz, Carl J

2013-01-01

Conservation of grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) is often controversial and the disagreement often is focused on the estimates of density used to calculate allowable kill. Many recent estimates of grizzly bear density are now available but field-based estimates will never be available for more than a small portion of hunted populations. Current methods of predicting density in areas of management interest are subjective and untested. Objective methods have been proposed, but these statistical models are so dependent on results from individual study areas that the models do not generalize well. We built regression models to relate grizzly bear density to ultimate measures of ecosystem productivity and mortality for interior and coastal ecosystems in North America. We used 90 measures of grizzly bear density in interior ecosystems, of which 14 were currently known to be unoccupied by grizzly bears. In coastal areas, we used 17 measures of density including 2 unoccupied areas. Our best model for coastal areas included a negative relationship with tree cover and positive relationships with the proportion of salmon in the diet and topographic ruggedness, which was correlated with precipitation. Our best interior model included 3 variables that indexed terrestrial productivity, 1 describing vegetation cover, 2 indices of human use of the landscape and, an index of topographic ruggedness. We used our models to predict current population sizes across Canada and present these as alternatives to current population estimates. Our models predict fewer grizzly bears in British Columbia but more bears in Canada than in the latest status review. These predictions can be used to assess population status, set limits for total human-caused mortality, and for conservation planning, but because our predictions are static, they cannot be used to assess population trend.

Estimates of Ground-Water Recharge to the Yakima River Basin Aquifer System, Washington, for Predevelopment and Current Land-Use and Land-Cover Conditions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vaccaro, J.J.; Olsen, T.D.

2007-01-01

Two models were used to estimate ground-water recharge to the Yakima River Basin aquifer system, Washington for predevelopment (estimate of natural conditions) and current (a multi-year, 1995-2004, composite) land-use and land-cover conditions. The models were the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) and the Deep Percolation Model (DPM) that are contained in the U.S. Geological Survey's Modular Modeling System. Daily values of recharge were estimated for water years 1950-98 using previously developed PRMS-watershed models for four mainly forested upland areas, and for water years 1950-2003 using DPM applied to 17 semiarid to arid areas in the basin. The mean annual recharge under predevelopment conditions was estimated to be about 11.9 in. or 5,450 ft3/s (about 3.9 million acre-ft) for the 6,207 mi2 in the modeled area. In the modeled areas, recharge ranged from 0.08 in. (1.2 ft3/s) to 34 in. (2,825 ft3/s). About 97 percent of the recharge occurred in the 3,667 mi2 area included in the upland-area models, but much of this quantity is not available to recharge the bedrock hydrogeologic units. Only about 1.0 in., or 187 ft3/s (about 0.14 million acre-ft), was estimated to occur in the 2,540 mi2 area included in the semiarid to arid lowland modeled areas. The mean annual recharge to the aquifer system under current conditions was estimated to be about 15.6 in., or 7,149 ft3/s (about 5.2 million acre-ft). The increase in recharge is due to the application of irrigation water to croplands. The annual quantity of irrigation was more than five times the annual precipitation for some of the modeled areas. Mean annual actual evapotranspiration was estimated to have increased from predevelopment conditions by more than 1,700 ft3/s (about 1.2 million acre-ft) due to irrigation.

Atmospheric numerical modeling resource enhancement and model convective parameterization/scale interaction studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cushman, Paula P.

1993-01-01

Research will be undertaken in this contract in the area of Modeling Resource and Facilities Enhancement to include computer, technical and educational support to NASA investigators to facilitate model implementation, execution and analysis of output; to provide facilities linking USRA and the NASA/EADS Computer System as well as resident work stations in ESAD; and to provide a centralized location for documentation, archival and dissemination of modeling information pertaining to NASA's program. Additional research will be undertaken in the area of Numerical Model Scale Interaction/Convective Parameterization Studies to include implementation of the comparison of cloud and rain systems and convective-scale processes between the model simulations and what was observed; and to incorporate the findings of these and related research findings in at least two refereed journal articles.

An area model for on-chip memories and its application

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mulder, Johannes M.; Quach, Nhon T.; Flynn, Michael J.

1991-01-01

An area model suitable for comparing data buffers of different organizations and arbitrary sizes is described. The area model considers the supplied bandwidth of a memory cell and includes such buffer overhead as control logic, driver logic, and tag storage. The model gave less than 10 percent error when verified against real caches and register files. It is shown that, comparing caches and register files in terms of area for the same storage capacity, caches generally occupy more area per bit than register files for small caches because the overhead dominates the cache area at these sizes. For larger caches, the smaller storage cells in the cache provide a smaller total cache area per bit than the register set. Studying cache performance (traffic ratio) as a function of area, it is shown that, for small caches, direct-mapped caches perform significantly better than four-way set-associative caches and, for caches of medium areas, both direct-mapped and set-associative caches perform better than fully associative caches.

Some Computer-Based Developments in Sociology.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Heise, David R.; Simmons, Roberta G.

1985-01-01

Discusses several ways in which computers are being used in sociology and how they continue to change this discipline. Areas considered include data collection, data analysis, simulations of social processes based on mathematical models, and problem areas (including standardization concerns, training, and the financing of computing facilities).…

Simulation of groundwater flow to assess future withdrawals associated with Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC) at Fort George G. Meade, Maryland

USGS Publications Warehouse

Raffensperger, Jeff P.; Fleming, Brandon J.; Banks, William S.L.; Horn, Marilee A.; Nardi, Mark R.; Andreasen, David C.

2010-01-01

Increased groundwater withdrawals from confined aquifers in the Maryland Coastal Plain to supply anticipated growth at Fort George G. Meade (Fort Meade) and surrounding areas resulting from the Department of Defense Base Realignment and Closure Program may have adverse effects in the outcrop or near-outcrop areas. Specifically, increased pumping from the Potomac Group aquifers (principally the Patuxent aquifer) could potentially reduce base flow in small streams below rates necessary for healthy biological functioning. Additionally, water levels may be lowered near, or possibly below, the top of the aquifer within the confined-unconfined transition zone near the outcrop area. A three-dimensional groundwater flow model was created to incorporate and analyze data on water withdrawals, streamflow, and hydraulic head in the region. The model is based on an earlier model developed to assess the effects of future withdrawals from well fields in Anne Arundel County, Maryland and surrounding areas, and includes some of the same features, including model extent, boundary conditions, and vertical discretization (layering). The resolution (horizontal grid discretization) of the earlier model limited its ability to simulate the effects of withdrawals on the outcrop and near-outcrop areas. The model developed for this study included a block-shaped higher-resolution local grid, referred to as the child model, centered on Fort Meade, which was coupled to the coarser-grid parent model using the shared node Local Grid Refinement capability of MODFLOW-LGR. A more detailed stream network was incorporated into the child model. In addition, for part of the transient simulation period, stress periods were reduced in length from 1 year to 3 months, to allow for simulation of the effects of seasonally varying withdrawals and recharge on the groundwater-flow system and simulated streamflow. This required revision of the database on withdrawals and estimation of seasonal variations in recharge represented in the earlier model. The calibrated model provides a tool for future forecasts of changes in the system under different management scenarios, and for simulating potential effects of withdrawals at Fort Meade and the surrounding area on water levels in the near-outcrop area and base flow in the outcrop area. Model error was assessed by comparing observed and simulated water levels from 62 wells (55 in the parent model and 7 in the child model). The root-mean-square error values for the parent and child model were 8.72 and 11.91 feet, respectively. Root-mean-square error values for the 55 parent model observation wells range from 0.95 to 30.31 feet; the range for the 7 child model observation wells is 5.00 to 24.17 feet. Many of the wells with higher root-mean-square error values occur at the perimeter of the child model and near large pumping centers, as well as updip in the confined aquifers. Root-mean-square error values decrease downdip and away from the large pumping centers. Both the parent and child models are sensitive to increasing withdrawal rates. The parent model is more sensitive than the child model to decreasing transmissivity of layers 3, 4, 5, and 6. The parent model is relatively insensitive to riverbed vertical conductance, however, the child model does exhibit some sensitivity to decreasing riverbed conductance. The overall water budget for the model included sources and sinks of water including recharge, surface-water bodies and rivers and streams, general-head boundaries, and withdrawals from permitted wells. Withdrawal from wells in 2005 was estimated to be equivalent to 8.5 percent of the total recharge rate.

Operational environmental assessment "Prestige" (a recent application of the MOCASSIM system).

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vitorino, J.; Rusu, E.; Almeida, S.; Monteiro, M.; Lermusiaux, P.; Haley, P.; Leslie, W.; Miller, P.; Coelho, E.; Signell, R.

2003-04-01

The sinking of tanker "Prestige", on the 19th November 2002, offshore the northwestern coasts of Spain and Portugal, has lead to a major environmental disaster. In this contribution we present several aspects of the operational environmental assessment "Prestige" conducted by Instituto Hidrografico (IH) in close colaboration with Instituto de Meteorologia (IM), the Harvard University, the Plymouth Marine Laboratory (PML) and the Saclancentre. The operational system MOCASSIM, which is presently being developed at IH, was used to provide forecasts of the evolution of oceanographic conditions offshore the NW Iberian coast. The system integrates a primitive equation model with data assimilation (the Harvard Ocean Prediction System - HOPS) and two wave models (the SWAN and WW3 models). The numerical domains used in both HOPS and SWAN models covered the area bewteen 40ºN and 46ºN and from 7ºW to 15ºW, and included the sinking area as well as the coastal regions more directly exposed to the oil spill. The models were run with atmospheric forcing conditions provided by the limited area model ALADIN, run operationally at IM, complemented with NOGAPS wind fields from the NATO METOC site of Rota. The HOPS simulations included assimilation of several data available for region. These data sets included CTD casts from the Northern Spanish shelf and slope (made available by University of Baleares) and SST data processed at the Remote Sensing Group of the PML. Results from both models were used in oil spill models and allowed an estimation of the impacts on the coastal areas.

Particle-tracking analysis of contributing areas of public-supply wells in simple and complex flow systems, Cape Cod, Massachusetts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barlow, P.M.

1994-01-01

Steady-state, two-and three-dimensional, ground-water flow models coupled with a particle- tracking program were evaluated to determine their effectiveness in delineating contributing areas of existing and hypothetical public-supply wells pumping from two contrasting stratified-drift aquifers of Cape Cod, Mass. Several of the contri- buting areas delineated by use of the three- dimensional models do not conform to simple ellipsoidal shapes that are typically delineated by use of a two-dimensional analytical and numerical modeling techniques, include dis- continuous areas of the water table, and do not surround the wells. Because two-dimensional areal models do not account for vertical flow, they cannot adequately represent many of the hydro- geologic and well-design variables that were shown to complicate the delineation of contributing areas in these flow systems, including the presence of discrete lenses of 1ow hydraulic conductivity, large ratios of horizontal to ver- tical hydraulic conductivity, shallow streams, partially penetrating supply wells, and 1ow pumping rates (less than 0.1 million gallons per day). Nevertheless, contributing areas delineated for two wells in the simpler of the two flow systems--a thin (less than 100 feet), single- layer, uniform aquifer with near-ideal boundary conditions--were not significantly different for the two- or three-dimensional models of the natural system, for a pumping rate of 0.5 million gallons per day. Use of particle tracking helped identify the source of water to simulated wells, which included precipitation recharge, wastewater return flow, and pond water. Pond water and wastewater return flow accounted for as much as 73 and 40 percent, respectively, of the water captured by simulated wells.

Methodology of determining soil structure in important groundwater areas: case studies in Kauvonkangas, Finnish Lapland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kupila, Juho

2016-04-01

Finland is fully self-sufficient in clean groundwater and even has a capacity of exportation. There are approx. 6000 groundwater areas with a total yield of 5.4 million m3/day. Currently only 10% of this groundwater resource is in use. For the efficient and safe exploitation of these areas in the future, detailed modeling of soil structure is an important method in groundwater surveys. 3D -models improve the general knowledge of linkage between land use planning and groundwater protection. Results can be used as a base information in water supply service development and when performing the measures needed in case of environmental accidents. Also, when creating the groundwater flow models the collected information is utilized and is usually the main data source. Geological Survey of Finland has carried out soil structure studies in co-operation with authorities, municipalities and the local water suppliers. The main objectives of these projects are to determine the geological structure of groundwater area for estimating the validity of the present exclusion area, the quantity of ground water volume and recharge capability and possible risks to the groundwater. Research areas are usually under an active water supply service. Kauvonkangas groundwater area is located in the municipality of Tervola, in Southern part of Finnish Lapland. Extent of the area is 7.9 km2 and it is an important water source for the local and nearby population centers. There are two active water supply companies in the area. Field studies in the project will include general geological and hydrological mapping, soil drilling with observation pipe installation, test pumping and water sampling. Geophysical measures will play a key-role, including ground penetrating radar (GPR) and gravimetric measurements. Studies will be carried out in spring and summer 2016. The main results will be the models of the bedrock and groundwater level and main characteristics of the soil layers in the area. Results will also include the main flow directions of the groundwater. Structure models will be done with Groundhog -software. Kauvonkangas -project is funded by local water supply companies Meri-Lapin Vesi and Tervolan Vesi, Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, and Geological Survey of Finland.

Research in network management techniques for tactical data communications networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boorstyn, R.; Kershenbaum, A.; Maglaris, B.; Sarachik, P.

1982-09-01

This is the final technical report for work performed on network management techniques for tactical data networks. It includes all technical papers that have been published during the control period. Research areas include Packet Network modelling, adaptive network routing, network design algorithms, network design techniques, and local area networks.

A conceptual model of ground-water flow in the eastern Snake River Plain aquifer at the Idaho National Laboratory and vicinity with implications for contaminant transport

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ackerman, Daniel J.; Rattray, Gordon W.; Rousseau, Joseph P.; Davis, Linda C.; Orr, Brennon R.

2006-01-01

Ground-water flow in the west-central part of the eastern Snake River Plain aquifer is described in a conceptual model that will be used in numerical simulations to evaluate contaminant transport at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) and vicinity. The model encompasses an area of 1,940 square miles (mi2) and includes most of the 890 mi2 of the INL. A 50-year history of waste disposal associated with research activities at the INL has resulted in measurable concentrations of waste contaminants in the aquifer. A thorough understanding of the fate and movement of these contaminants in the subsurface is needed by the U.S. Department of Energy to minimize the effect that contaminated ground water may have on the region and to plan effectively for remediation. Three hydrogeologic units were used to represent the complex stratigraphy of the aquifer in the model area. Collectively, these hydrogeologic units include at least 65 basalt-flow groups, 5 andesite-flow groups, and 61 sedimentary interbeds. Three rhyolite domes in the model area extend deep enough to penetrate the aquifer. The rhyolite domes are represented in the conceptual model as low permeability, vertical pluglike masses, and are not included as part of the three primary hydrogeologic units. Broad differences in lithology and large variations in hydraulic properties allowed the heterogeneous, anisotropic basalt-flow groups, andesite-flow groups, and sedimentary interbeds to be grouped into three hydrogeologic units that are conceptually homogeneous and anisotropic. Younger rocks, primarily thin, densely fractured basalt, compose hydrogeologic unit 1; younger rocks, primarily of massive, less densely fractured basalt, compose hydrogeologic unit 2; and intermediate-age rocks, primarily of slightly-to-moderately altered, fractured basalt, compose hydrogeologic unit 3. Differences in hydraulic properties among adjacent hydrogeologic units result in much of the large-scale heterogeneity and anisotropy of the aquifer in the model area, and differences in horizontal and vertical hydraulic conductivity in individual hydrogeologic units result in much of the small-scale heterogeneity and anisotropy of the aquifer in the model area. The inferred three-dimensional geometry of the aquifer in the model area is very irregular. Its thickness generally increases from north to south and from west to east and is greatest south of the INL. The interpreted distribution of older rocks that underlie the aquifer indicates large changes in saturated thickness across the model area. The boundaries of the model include physical and artificial boundaries, and ground-water flows across the boundaries may be temporally constant or variable and spatially uniform or nonuniform. Physical boundaries include the water-table boundary, base of the aquifer, and northwest mountain-front boundary. Artificial boundaries include the northeast boundary, southeast-flowline boundary, and southwest boundary. Water flows into the model area as (1) underflow (1,225 cubic feet per second (ft3/s)) from the regional aquifer (northeast boundary-constant and nonuniform), (2) underflow (695 ft3/s) from the tributary valleys and mountain fronts (northwest boundary-constant and nonuniform), (3) precipitation recharge (70 ft3/s) (constant and uniform), streamflow-infiltration recharge (95 ft3/s) (variable and nonuniform), wastewater return flows (6 ft3/s) (variable and nonuniform), and irrigation-infiltration recharge (24 ft3/s) (variable and nonuniform) across the water table (water-table boundary-variable and nonuniform), and (4) upward flow across the base of the aquifer (44 ft3/s) (uniform and constant). The southeast-flowline boundary is represented as a no-flow boundary. Water flows out of the model area as underflow (2,037 ft3/s) to the regional aquifer (southwest boundary-variable and nonuniform) and as ground-water withdrawals (45 ft3/s) (water table boundary-variable and nonuniform). Ground-water flow i

Application of logistic regression for landslide susceptibility zoning of Cekmece Area, Istanbul, Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duman, T. Y.; Can, T.; Gokceoglu, C.; Nefeslioglu, H. A.; Sonmez, H.

2006-11-01

As a result of industrialization, throughout the world, cities have been growing rapidly for the last century. One typical example of these growing cities is Istanbul, the population of which is over 10 million. Due to rapid urbanization, new areas suitable for settlement and engineering structures are necessary. The Cekmece area located west of the Istanbul metropolitan area is studied, because the landslide activity is extensive in this area. The purpose of this study is to develop a model that can be used to characterize landslide susceptibility in map form using logistic regression analysis of an extensive landslide database. A database of landslide activity was constructed using both aerial-photography and field studies. About 19.2% of the selected study area is covered by deep-seated landslides. The landslides that occur in the area are primarily located in sandstones with interbedded permeable and impermeable layers such as claystone, siltstone and mudstone. About 31.95% of the total landslide area is located at this unit. To apply logistic regression analyses, a data matrix including 37 variables was constructed. The variables used in the forwards stepwise analyses are different measures of slope, aspect, elevation, stream power index (SPI), plan curvature, profile curvature, geology, geomorphology and relative permeability of lithological units. A total of 25 variables were identified as exerting strong influence on landslide occurrence, and included by the logistic regression equation. Wald statistics values indicate that lithology, SPI and slope are more important than the other parameters in the equation. Beta coefficients of the 25 variables included the logistic regression equation provide a model for landslide susceptibility in the Cekmece area. This model is used to generate a landslide susceptibility map that correctly classified 83.8% of the landslide-prone areas.

Integrated Hydrogeological Model of the General Separations Area, Vol. 2, Rev. 1

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

FLACH, GREGORYK.

1999-04-01

The 15 mi2 General Separations Area (GSA) contains more than 35 RCRA and CERCLA waste units, and is the focus of numerous ongoing and anticipated contaminant migration and remedial alternatives studies. To meet the analysis needs of GSA remediation programs, a groundwater flow model of the area based on the FACT code was developed. The model is consistent with detailed characterization and monitoring data through 1996. Model preprocessing has been automated so that future updates and modifications can be performed quickly and efficiently. Most remedial action scenarios can be explicitly simulated, including vertical recirculation wells, vertical barriers, surface caps, pumpingmore » wells at arbitrary locations, specified drawdown within well casings (instead of flowrate), and wetland impacts of remedial actions. The model has a fine scale vertical mesh and heterogeneous conductivity field, and includes the vadose zone. Therefore, the model is well suited to support subsequent contaminant transport simulations. the model can provide a common framework for analyzing groundwater flow, contaminant migration, and remedial alternatives across Environmental Restoration programs within the GSA.« less

Identification and quantification of the hydrological impacts of imperviousness in urban catchments: a review.

PubMed

Jacobson, Carol R

2011-06-01

Urbanisation produces numerous changes in the natural environments it replaces. The impacts include habitat fragmentation and changes to both the quality and quantity of the stormwater runoff, and result in changes to hydrological systems. This review integrates research in relatively diverse areas to examine how the impacts of urban imperviousness on hydrological systems can be quantified and modelled. It examines the nature of reported impacts of urbanisation on hydrological systems over four decades, including the effects of changes in imperviousness within catchments, and some inconsistencies in studies of the impacts of urbanisation. The distribution of imperviousness within urban areas is important in understanding the impacts of urbanisation and quantification requires detailed characterisation of urban areas. As a result most mapping of urban areas uses remote sensing techniques and this review examines a range of techniques using medium and high resolution imagery, including spectral unmixing. The third section examines the ways in which scientists and hydrological and environmental engineers model and quantify water flows in urban areas, the nature of hydrological models and methods for their calibration. The final section examines additional factors which influence the impact of impervious surfaces and some uncertainties that exist in current knowledge. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Updating stand-level forest inventories using airborne laser scanning and Landsat time series data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bolton, Douglas K.; White, Joanne C.; Wulder, Michael A.; Coops, Nicholas C.; Hermosilla, Txomin; Yuan, Xiaoping

2018-04-01

Vertical forest structure can be mapped over large areas by combining samples of airborne laser scanning (ALS) data with wall-to-wall spatial data, such as Landsat imagery. Here, we use samples of ALS data and Landsat time-series metrics to produce estimates of top height, basal area, and net stem volume for two timber supply areas near Kamloops, British Columbia, Canada, using an imputation approach. Both single-year and time series metrics were calculated from annual, gap-free Landsat reflectance composites representing 1984-2014. Metrics included long-term means of vegetation indices, as well as measures of the variance and slope of the indices through time. Terrain metrics, generated from a 30 m digital elevation model, were also included as predictors. We found that imputation models improved with the inclusion of Landsat time series metrics when compared to single-year Landsat metrics (relative RMSE decreased from 22.8% to 16.5% for top height, from 32.1% to 23.3% for basal area, and from 45.6% to 34.1% for net stem volume). Landsat metrics that characterized 30-years of stand history resulted in more accurate models (for all three structural attributes) than Landsat metrics that characterized only the most recent 10 or 20 years of stand history. To test model transferability, we compared imputed attributes against ALS-based estimates in nearby forest blocks (>150,000 ha) that were not included in model training or testing. Landsat-imputed attributes correlated strongly to ALS-based estimates in these blocks (R2 = 0.62 and relative RMSE = 13.1% for top height, R2 = 0.75 and relative RMSE = 17.8% for basal area, and R2 = 0.67 and relative RMSE = 26.5% for net stem volume), indicating model transferability. These findings suggest that in areas containing spatially-limited ALS data acquisitions, imputation models, and Landsat time series and terrain metrics can be effectively used to produce wall-to-wall estimates of key inventory attributes, providing an opportunity to update estimates of forest attributes in areas where inventory information is either out of date or non-existent.

Extending the Will, Skill, Tool Model of Technology Integration: Adding Pedagogy as a New Model Construct

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Knezek, Gerald; Christensen, Rhonda

2016-01-01

An expansion of the Will, Skill, Tool Model of Technology Integration to include teacher's pedagogical style is proposed by the authors as a means of advancing the predictive power of the model for level of classroom technology integration to beyond 90%. Suggested advantages to this expansion include more precise identification of areas to be…

Reports related to Emissions Control Areas for Marine Vessels

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Reports related to Marine Emissions Control Areas including Global Trade and Fuels Assessment, Modeling Sulfur Oxides Emissions Transport From Ships at Sea, Commercial Marine Emission Inventory Development

Wild bird mortality and West Nile virus surveillance: Biases associated with detection, reporting, and carcass persistence

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ward, M.R.; Stallknecht, D.E.; Willis, J.; Conroy, M.J.; Davidson, W.R.

2006-01-01

Surveillance targeting dead wild birds, in particular American crows (Corvus brachyrhynchos), plays a critical role in West Nile virus (WNV) surveillance in the United States. Using crow decoy surrogates, detection and reporting of crow carcasses within urban and rural environments of DeKalb County, Georgia were assessed for potential biases that might occur in the county's WNV surveillance program. In each of two replicated trials, during July and September 2003, 400 decoys were labeled with reporting instructions and distributed along randomly chosen routes throughout designated urban and rural areas within DeKalb County. Information-theoretic methods were used to compare alternative models incorporating the effects of area and trial on probabilities of detection and reporting. The model with the best empirical support included the effects of area on both detection and reporting of decoys. The proportion of decoys detected in the urban area (0.605, SE=0.024) was approximately twice that of the rural area (0.293, SE =0.023), and the proportion of decoys reported in the urban area (0.273, SE =0.023) was approximately three times that of the rural area (0.103, SE=0.028). These results suggest that human density and associated factors can substantially influence dead crow detection and reporting and, thus, the perceived distribution of WNV. In a second and separate study, the persistence and fate of American crow and house sparrow (Passer domesticus) carcasses were assessed in urban and rural environments in Athens-Clarke, Madison, and Oconee counties, Georgia. Two replicated trials using 96 carcasses of each species were conducted during July and September 2004. For a portion of the carcasses, motion sensitive cameras were used to monitor scavenging species visits. Most carcasses (82%) disappeared or were decayed by the end of the 6-day study. Carcass persistence averaged 1.6 days in rural areas and 2.1 days in urban areas. We analyzed carcass persistence rates using a known-fate model framework in program MARK. Model selection based on Akaike's Information Criteria (AIC) indicated that the best model explaining carcass persistence rates included species and number of days of exposure; however, the model including area and number of days of exposure received approximately equal support. Model-averaged carcass persistence rates were higher for urban areas and for crow carcasses. Six mammalian and one avian species were documented scavenging upon carcasses. Dead wild birds could represent potential sources of oral WNV exposure to these scavenging species. Species composition of the scavenger assemblage was similar in urban and rural areas but "scavenging pressure" was greater in rural areas. ?? Wildlife Disease Association 2006.

Deep Learning Predicts Correlation between a Functional Signature of Higher Visual Areas and Sparse Firing of Neurons.

PubMed

Zhuang, Chengxu; Wang, Yulong; Yamins, Daniel; Hu, Xiaolin

2017-01-01

Visual information in the visual cortex is processed in a hierarchical manner. Recent studies show that higher visual areas, such as V2, V3, and V4, respond more vigorously to images with naturalistic higher-order statistics than to images lacking them. This property is a functional signature of higher areas, as it is much weaker or even absent in the primary visual cortex (V1). However, the mechanism underlying this signature remains elusive. We studied this problem using computational models. In several typical hierarchical visual models including the AlexNet, VggNet, and SHMAX, this signature was found to be prominent in higher layers but much weaker in lower layers. By changing both the model structure and experimental settings, we found that the signature strongly correlated with sparse firing of units in higher layers but not with any other factors, including model structure, training algorithm (supervised or unsupervised), receptive field size, and property of training stimuli. The results suggest an important role of sparse neuronal activity underlying this special feature of higher visual areas.

Deep Learning Predicts Correlation between a Functional Signature of Higher Visual Areas and Sparse Firing of Neurons

PubMed Central

Zhuang, Chengxu; Wang, Yulong; Yamins, Daniel; Hu, Xiaolin

2017-01-01

Visual information in the visual cortex is processed in a hierarchical manner. Recent studies show that higher visual areas, such as V2, V3, and V4, respond more vigorously to images with naturalistic higher-order statistics than to images lacking them. This property is a functional signature of higher areas, as it is much weaker or even absent in the primary visual cortex (V1). However, the mechanism underlying this signature remains elusive. We studied this problem using computational models. In several typical hierarchical visual models including the AlexNet, VggNet, and SHMAX, this signature was found to be prominent in higher layers but much weaker in lower layers. By changing both the model structure and experimental settings, we found that the signature strongly correlated with sparse firing of units in higher layers but not with any other factors, including model structure, training algorithm (supervised or unsupervised), receptive field size, and property of training stimuli. The results suggest an important role of sparse neuronal activity underlying this special feature of higher visual areas. PMID:29163117

Tree biomass in the Swiss landscape: nationwide modelling for improved accounting for forest and non-forest trees.

PubMed

Price, B; Gomez, A; Mathys, L; Gardi, O; Schellenberger, A; Ginzler, C; Thürig, E

2017-03-01

Trees outside forest (TOF) can perform a variety of social, economic and ecological functions including carbon sequestration. However, detailed quantification of tree biomass is usually limited to forest areas. Taking advantage of structural information available from stereo aerial imagery and airborne laser scanning (ALS), this research models tree biomass using national forest inventory data and linear least-square regression and applies the model both inside and outside of forest to create a nationwide model for tree biomass (above ground and below ground). Validation of the tree biomass model against TOF data within settlement areas shows relatively low model performance (R 2 of 0.44) but still a considerable improvement on current biomass estimates used for greenhouse gas inventory and carbon accounting. We demonstrate an efficient and easily implementable approach to modelling tree biomass across a large heterogeneous nationwide area. The model offers significant opportunity for improved estimates on land use combination categories (CC) where tree biomass has either not been included or only roughly estimated until now. The ALS biomass model also offers the advantage of providing greater spatial resolution and greater within CC spatial variability compared to the current nationwide estimates.

Usefulness of high resolution coastal models for operational oil spill forecast: the Full City accident

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Broström, G.; Carrasco, A.; Hole, L. R.; Dick, S.; Janssen, F.; Mattsson, J.; Berger, S.

2011-06-01

Oil spill modeling is considered to be an important decision support system (DeSS) useful for remedial action in case of accidents, as well as for designing the environmental monitoring system that is frequently set up after major accidents. Many accidents take place in coastal areas implying that low resolution basin scale ocean models is of limited use for predicting the trajectories of an oil spill. In this study, we target the oil spill in connection with the Full City accident on the Norwegian south coast and compare three different oil spill models for the area. The result of the analysis is that all models do a satisfactory job. The "standard" operational model for the area is shown to have severe flaws but including an analysis based on a higher resolution model (1.5 km resolution) for the area the model system show results that compare well with observations. The study also shows that an ensemble using three different models is useful when predicting/analyzing oil spill in coastal areas.

Vital area identification for U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission nuclear power reactor licensees and new reactor applicants.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Whitehead, Donnie Wayne; Varnado, G. Bruce

2008-09-01

U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission nuclear power plant licensees and new reactor applicants are required to provide protection of their plants against radiological sabotage, including the placement of vital equipment in vital areas. This document describes a systematic process for the identification of the minimum set of areas that must be designated as vital areas in order to ensure that all radiological sabotage scenarios are prevented. Vital area identification involves the use of logic models to systematically identify all of the malicious acts or combinations of malicious acts that could lead to radiological sabotage. The models available in the plant probabilisticmore » risk assessment and other safety analyses provide a great deal of the information and basic model structure needed for the sabotage logic model. Once the sabotage logic model is developed, the events (or malicious acts) in the model are replaced with the areas in which the events can be accomplished. This sabotage area logic model is then analyzed to identify the target sets (combinations of areas the adversary must visit to cause radiological sabotage) and the candidate vital area sets (combinations of areas that must be protected against adversary access to prevent radiological sabotage). Any one of the candidate vital area sets can be selected for protection. Appropriate selection criteria will allow the licensee or new reactor applicant to minimize the impacts of vital area protection measures on plant safety, cost, operations, or other factors of concern.« less

Modeling survival: application of the Andersen-Gill model to Yellowstone grizzly bears

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, Christopher J.; Boyce, Mark S.; Schwartz, Charles C.; Haroldson, Mark A.

2004-01-01

 Wildlife ecologists often use the Kaplan-Meier procedure or Cox proportional hazards model to estimate survival rates, distributions, and magnitude of risk factors. The Andersen-Gill formulation (A-G) of the Cox proportional hazards model has seen limited application to mark-resight data but has a number of advantages, including the ability to accommodate left-censored data, time-varying covariates, multiple events, and discontinuous intervals of risks. We introduce the A-G model including structure of data, interpretation of results, and assessment of assumptions. We then apply the model to 22 years of radiotelemetry data for grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) of the Greater Yellowstone Grizzly Bear Recovery Zone in Montana, Idaho, and Wyoming, USA. We used Akaike's Information Criterion (AICc) and multi-model inference to assess a number of potentially useful predictive models relative to explanatory covariates for demography, human disturbance, and habitat. Using the most parsimonious models, we generated risk ratios, hypothetical survival curves, and a map of the spatial distribution of high-risk areas across the recovery zone. Our results were in agreement with past studies of mortality factors for Yellowstone grizzly bears. Holding other covariates constant, mortality was highest for bears that were subjected to repeated management actions and inhabited areas with high road densities outside Yellowstone National Park. Hazard models developed with covariates descriptive of foraging habitats were not the most parsimonious, but they suggested that high-elevation areas offered lower risks of mortality when compared to agricultural areas.

The effectiveness of surrogate taxa to conserve freshwater biodiversity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stewart, David R.; Underwood, Zachary E.; Rahel, Frank J.; Walters, Annika W.

2018-01-01

Establishing protected areas has long been an effective conservation strategy, and is often based on more readily surveyed species. The potential of any freshwater taxa to be a surrogate of other aquatic groups has not been fully explored. We compiled occurrence data on 72 species of freshwater fish, amphibians, mussels, and aquatic reptiles for the Great Plains, Wyoming. We used hierarchical Bayesian multi-species mixture models and MaxEnt models to describe species distributions, and program Zonation to identify conservation priority areas for each aquatic group. The landscape-scale factors that best characterized aquatic species distributions differed among groups. There was low agreement and congruence among taxa-specific conservation priorities (<20%), meaning that no surrogate priority areas would include or protect the best habitats of other aquatic taxa. We found that common, wide-ranging aquatic species were included in taxa-specific priority areas, but rare freshwater species were not included. Thus, the development of conservation priorities based on a single freshwater aquatic group would not protect all species in the other aquatic groups.

Noah's Ark-Red Cross Foundation: a Swedish model.

PubMed

Florence, M E

1993-01-01

During the Spring of 1991, the author spent many weeks at the Noah's Ark-Red Cross Foundation, a support service for HIV infected persons, and their families and friends, located in Stockholm, Sweden. The purpose was to study, through interviews, observation and participation, the foundation's interactive model in order to discover what makes it work and share that knowledge with other professionals. The Noah's Ark Model consists of three spheres of activity: service, including reception services and the volunteer programme; information and education, including the Hot Line and the Newsletter; and counselling and support, including the guest house. Staff from each area interact freely with and participate in the activities of other areas. The foundation also utilizes the services of carefully trained volunteers. This use of volunteers makes it unique in Sweden. It is the dedication and flexibility of the staff and volunteers that make this model work. The report of the study follows.

Spatial transferability of habitat suitability models of Nephrops norvegicus among fished areas in the Northeast Atlantic: sufficiently stable for marine resource conservation?

PubMed

Lauria, Valentina; Power, Anne Marie; Lordan, Colm; Weetman, Adrian; Johnson, Mark P

2015-01-01

Knowledge of the spatial distribution and habitat associations of species in relation to the environment is essential for their management and conservation. Habitat suitability models are useful in quantifying species-environment relationships and predicting species distribution patterns. Little is known, however, about the stability and performance of habitat suitability models when projected into new areas (spatial transferability) and how this can inform resource management. The aims of this study were to model habitat suitability of Norway lobster (Nephrops norvegicus) in five fished areas of the Northeast Atlantic (Aran ground, Irish Sea, Celtic Sea, Scotland Inshore and Fladen ground), and to test for spatial transferability of habitat models among multiple regions. Nephrops burrow density was modelled using generalised additive models (GAMs) with predictors selected from four environmental variables (depth, slope, sediment and rugosity). Models were evaluated and tested for spatial transferability among areas. The optimum models (lowest AICc) for different areas always included depth and sediment as predictors. Burrow densities were generally greater at depth and in finer sediments, but relationships for individual areas were sometimes more complex. Aside from an inclusion of depth and sediment, the optimum models differed between fished areas. When it came to tests of spatial transferability, however, most of the models were able to predict Nephrops density in other areas. Furthermore, transferability was not dependent on use of the optimum models since competing models were also able to achieve a similar level of transferability to new areas. A degree of decoupling between model 'fitting' performance and spatial transferability supports the use of simpler models when extrapolating habitat suitability maps to different areas. Differences in the form and performance of models from different areas may supply further information on the processes shaping species' distributions. Spatial transferability of habitat models can be used to support fishery management when the information is scarce but caution needs to be applied when making inference and a multi-area transferability analysis is preferable to bilateral comparisons between areas.

Influence of weather and climate variables on the basal area growth of individual shortleaf pine trees

Treesearch

Pradip Saud; Thomas B. Lynch; Duncan S. Wilson; John Stewart; James M. Guldin; Bob Heinemann; Randy Holeman; Dennis Wilson; Keith Anderson

2015-01-01

An individual-tree basal area growth model previously developed for even-aged naturally occurring shortleaf pine trees (Pinus echinata Mill.) in western Arkansas and southeastern Oklahoma did not include weather variables. Individual-tree growth and yield modeling of shortleaf pine has been carried out using the remeasurements of over 200 plots...

America's Youth Are at Risk: Developing Models for Action in the Nation's Public Libraries.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Flum, Judith G.; Weisner, Stan

1993-01-01

Discussion of public library support systems for at-risk teens focuses on the Bay Area Library and Information System (BALIS) that was developed to improve library services to at-risk teenagers in the San Francisco Bay area. Highlights include needs assessment; staff training; intervention models; and project evaluation. (10 references) (LRW)

A Model Policy Statement and Guidelines for Implementation: Equal Treatment of Students.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Education Commission of the States, Denver, CO.

This booklet offers a model policy statement that schools shall provide equal educational opportunities to all students regardless of sex. It includes stipulations and guidelines to achieve equal access in all areas of education. The following areas are considered: (1) Course offerings: every course shall be open to all students and schools should…

Calibrating a Rainfall-Runoff and Routing Model for the Continental United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jankowfsky, S.; Li, S.; Assteerawatt, A.; Tillmanns, S.; Hilberts, A.

2014-12-01

Catastrophe risk models are widely used in the insurance industry to estimate the cost of risk. The models consist of hazard models linked to vulnerability and financial loss models. In flood risk models, the hazard model generates inundation maps. In order to develop country wide inundation maps for different return periods a rainfall-runoff and routing model is run using stochastic rainfall data. The simulated discharge and runoff is then input to a two dimensional inundation model, which produces the flood maps. In order to get realistic flood maps, the rainfall-runoff and routing models have to be calibrated with observed discharge data. The rainfall-runoff model applied here is a semi-distributed model based on the Topmodel (Beven and Kirkby, 1979) approach which includes additional snowmelt and evapotranspiration models. The routing model is based on the Muskingum-Cunge (Cunge, 1969) approach and includes the simulation of lakes and reservoirs using the linear reservoir approach. Both models were calibrated using the multiobjective NSGA-II (Deb et al., 2002) genetic algorithm with NLDAS forcing data and around 4500 USGS discharge gauges for the period from 1979-2013. Additional gauges having no data after 1979 were calibrated using CPC rainfall data. The model performed well in wetter regions and shows the difficulty of simulating areas with sinks such as karstic areas or dry areas. Beven, K., Kirkby, M., 1979. A physically based, variable contributing area model of basin hydrology. Hydrol. Sci. Bull. 24 (1), 43-69. Cunge, J.A., 1969. On the subject of a flood propagation computation method (Muskingum method), J. Hydr. Research, 7(2), 205-230. Deb, K., Pratap, A., Agarwal, S., Meyarivan, T., 2002. A fast and elitist multiobjective genetic algorithm: NSGA-II, IEEE Transactions on evolutionary computation, 6(2), 182-197.

The Poughkeepsie Survey. A Report on Employment and Unemployment in a "Target Area" under the Model Cities Program.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kuper, Irvin, Ed.

Located in the heart of the Mid-Hudson area, Poughkeepsie is in one of the fastest growing regions of New York State, but the city itself has grown very little in the last five decades. The local Model Cities agency has created a target area which includes most of the older part of the city. In July 1967, the population was 35,970. A total of…

Program for fundamental and applied research of fuel cells in VNIIEF

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Anisin, A.V.; Borisseonock, V.A.; Novitskii, Y.Z.

1996-04-01

According to VNIIEF the integral part of development of fuel cell power plants is fundamental and applied research. This paper describes areas of research on molten carbonate fuel cells. Topics include the development of mathematical models for porous electrodes, thin film electrolytes, the possibility of solid nickel anodes, model of activation polarization of anode, electrolyte with high solubility of oxygen. Other areas include research on a stationary mode of stack operation, anticorrosion coatings, impedance diagnostic methods, ultrasound diagnostics, radiation treatments, an air aluminium cell, and alternative catalysts for low temperature fuel cells.

Surprisingly robust projections of soil temperature and moisture for North American drylands in the 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bradford, J. B.; Schlaepfer, D.; Palmquist, K. A.; Lauenroth, W.

2017-12-01

Climate projections for western North America suggest temperature increases that are relatively consistent across climate models. However, precipitation projections are less consistent, especially in the Southwest, promoting uncertainty about the future of soil moisture and drought. We utilized a daily time-step ecosystem water balance model to characterize soil temperature and moisture patterns at a 10-km resolution across western North America for historical (1980-2010), mid-century (2020-2050), and late century (2070-2100). We simulated soil moisture and temperature under two representative concentration pathways and eleven climate models (selected strategically to represent the range of variability in projections among the full set of models in the CMIP5 database and perform well in hind-cast comparisons for the region), and we use the results to identify areas with robust projections, e.g. areas where the large majority of models agree in the direction of change in long-term average soil moisture or temperature. Rising air temperatures will increase average soil temperatures across western North America and expand the area of mesic and thermic soil temperature regimes while decreasing the area of cryic and frigid regimes. Future soil moisture conditions are relatively consistent across climate models for much of the region, including many areas with variable precipitation trajectories. Consistent projections for drier soils are expected in most of Arizona and New Mexico, similar to previous studies. Other regions with projections for declining soil moisture include the central and southern U.S. Great Plains and large parts of southern British Columbia. By contrast, areas with robust projections for increasing soil moisture include northeastern Montana, southern Alberta and Saskatchewan, and many areas in the intermountain west dominated by big sagebrush. In addition, seasonal moisture patterns in much of the western US drylands are expected to shift toward cool-season water availability, with potentially important consequences for ecosystem structure and function. These results provide a framework for coping with variability in climate projections and assessing climate change impacts on dryland ecosystems.

A model framework for mortality and health data classified by age, area, and time.

PubMed

Congdon, Peter

2006-03-01

This article sets out a modeling framework for modeling health outcomes over area, age, and time dimensions that takes account of spatial correlation, interactions between dimensions, and cohort as well as age effects. The goals of the framework include parsimony and parameter interpretability. Multivariate extensions may be made allowing interdependent or shared effects between different outcomes (e.g., ill health and mortality). A particular focus is on assessing the proportionality assumption whereby separate age and area effects multiply to produce age-area mortality or illness rates, and age-area interactions are assumed not to exist. A trivariate (mortality-health) application of the framework involves cross-sectional data in the 33 London boroughs, while a longitudinal univariate application involves deaths for the same areas over four 5-year periods starting in 1979.

Multilevel and Latent Variable Modeling with Composite Links and Exploded Likelihoods

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rabe-Hesketh, Sophia; Skrondal, Anders

2007-01-01

Composite links and exploded likelihoods are powerful yet simple tools for specifying a wide range of latent variable models. Applications considered include survival or duration models, models for rankings, small area estimation with census information, models for ordinal responses, item response models with guessing, randomized response models,…

Analysis of a SCADA System Anomaly Detection Model Based on Information Entropy

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-03-27

20 Intrusion Detection...alarms ( Rem ). ............................................................................................................. 86 Figure 25. TP% for...literature concerning the focus areas of this research. The focus areas include SCADA vulnerabilities, information theory, and intrusion detection

Development of solute transport models in YMPYRÄ framework to simulate solute migration in military shooting and training areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Warsta, L.; Karvonen, T.

2017-12-01

There are currently 25 shooting and training areas in Finland managed by The Finnish Defence Forces (FDF), where military activities can cause contamination of open waters and groundwater reservoirs. In the YMPYRÄ project, a computer software framework is being developed that combines existing open environmental data and proprietary information collected by FDF with computational models to investigate current and prevent future environmental problems. A data centric philosophy is followed in the development of the system, i.e. the models are updated and extended to handle available data from different areas. The results generated by the models are summarized as easily understandable flow and risk maps that can be opened in GIS programs and used in environmental assessments by experts. Substances investigated with the system include explosives and metals such as lead, and both surface and groundwater dominated areas can be simulated. The YMPYRÄ framework is composed of a three dimensional soil and groundwater flow model, several solute transport models and an uncertainty assessment system. Solute transport models in the framework include particle based, stream tube and finite volume based approaches. The models can be used to simulate solute dissolution from source area, transport in the unsaturated layers to groundwater and finally migration in groundwater to water extraction wells and springs. The models can be used to simulate advection, dispersion, equilibrium adsorption on soil particles, solubility and dissolution from solute phase and dendritic solute decay chains. Correct numerical solutions were confirmed by comparing results to analytical 1D and 2D solutions and by comparing the numerical solutions to each other. The particle based and stream tube type solute transport models were useful as they could complement the traditional finite volume based approach which in certain circumstances produced numerical dispersion due to piecewise solution of the governing equations in computational grids and included computationally intensive and in some cases unstable iterative solutions. The YMPYRÄ framework is being developed by WaterHope, Gain Oy, and SITO Oy consulting companies and funded by FDF.

Effects of Precipitation on Ocean Mixed-Layer Temperature and Salinity as Simulated in a 2-D Coupled Ocean-Cloud Resolving Atmosphere Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Li, Xiaofan; Sui, C.-H.; Lau, K-M.; Adamec, D.

1999-01-01

A two-dimensional coupled ocean-cloud resolving atmosphere model is used to investigate possible roles of convective scale ocean disturbances induced by atmospheric precipitation on ocean mixed-layer heat and salt budgets. The model couples a cloud resolving model with an embedded mixed layer-ocean circulation model. Five experiment are performed under imposed large-scale atmospheric forcing in terms of vertical velocity derived from the TOGA COARE observations during a selected seven-day period. The dominant variability of mixed-layer temperature and salinity are simulated by the coupled model with imposed large-scale forcing. The mixed-layer temperatures in the coupled experiments with 1-D and 2-D ocean models show similar variations when salinity effects are not included. When salinity effects are included, however, differences in the domain-mean mixed-layer salinity and temperature between coupled experiments with 1-D and 2-D ocean models could be as large as 0.3 PSU and 0.4 C respectively. Without fresh water effects, the nocturnal heat loss over ocean surface causes deep mixed layers and weak cooling rates so that the nocturnal mixed-layer temperatures tend to be horizontally-uniform. The fresh water flux, however, causes shallow mixed layers over convective areas while the nocturnal heat loss causes deep mixed layer over convection-free areas so that the mixed-layer temperatures have large horizontal fluctuations. Furthermore, fresh water flux exhibits larger spatial fluctuations than surface heat flux because heavy rainfall occurs over convective areas embedded in broad non-convective or clear areas, whereas diurnal signals over whole model areas yield high spatial correlation of surface heat flux. As a result, mixed-layer salinities contribute more to the density differences than do mixed-layer temperatures.

Thermal area effectiveness for future aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Happ, W. W.

1975-01-01

Problem areas in airport planning, design, and operations identified by a decision matrix developed to display various airport functions interfaced with facilities and an extensive literature survey were investigated. Areas considered include: site selection and growth potential; emissions and noise control/containment for airports; financial and legal aspects of airport planning, contruction, and operation; intra-airport transportation and other passenger flow facilitators; simulation and modeling for airports; guidelines for airport multimodal access planning. Results are summarized and a bibliography is included.

Multistate matrix population model to assess the contributions and impacts on population abundance of domestic cats in urban areas including owned cats, unowned cats, and cats in shelters.

PubMed

Flockhart, D T Tyler; Coe, Jason B

2018-01-01

Concerns over cat homelessness, over-taxed animal shelters, public health risks, and environmental impacts has raised attention on urban-cat populations. To truly understand cat population dynamics, the collective population of owned cats, unowned cats, and cats in the shelter system must be considered simultaneously because each subpopulation contributes differently to the overall population of cats in a community (e.g., differences in neuter rates, differences in impacts on wildlife) and cats move among categories through human interventions (e.g., adoption, abandonment). To assess this complex socio-ecological system, we developed a multistate matrix model of cats in urban areas that include owned cats, unowned cats (free-roaming and feral), and cats that move through the shelter system. Our model requires three inputs-location, number of human dwellings, and urban area-to provide testable predictions of cat abundance for any city in North America. Model-predicted population size of unowned cats in seven Canadian cities were not significantly different than published estimates (p = 0.23). Model-predicted proportions of sterile feral cats did not match observed sterile cat proportions for six USA cities (p = 0.001). Using a case study from Guelph, Ontario, Canada, we compared model-predicted to empirical estimates of cat abundance in each subpopulation and used perturbation analysis to calculate relative sensitivity of vital rates to cat abundance to demonstrate how management or mismanagement in one portion of the population could have repercussions across all portions of the network. Our study provides a general framework to consider cat population abundance in urban areas and, with refinement that includes city-specific parameter estimates and modeling, could provide a better understanding of population dynamics of cats in our communities.

Surface Temperature Anomalies Derived from Night Time ASTER Data Corrected for Solar and Topographic Effects, Archuleta County

DOE Data Explorer

Khalid Hussein

2012-02-01

This map shows areas of anomalous surface temperature in Alamosa and Saguache Counties identified from ASTER thermal data and spatial based insolation model. The temperature is calculated using the Emissivity Normalization Algorithm that separate temperature from emissivity. The incoming solar radiation was calculated using spatial based insolation model developed by Fu and Rich (1999). Then the temperature due to solar radiation was calculated using emissivity derived from ASTER data. The residual temperature, i.e. temperature due to solar radiation subtracted from ASTER temperature was used to identify thermally anomalous areas. Areas that had temperature greater than 2o were considered ASTER modeled "very warm modeled surface temperature" are shown in red on the map. Areas that had temperatures between 1o and 2o were considered ASTER modeled "warm modeled surface temperature" are shown in yellow on the map. This map also includes the locations of shallow temperature survey points, locations of springs or wells with favorable geochemistry, faults, transmission lines, and areas of modeled basement weakness "fairways." Note: 'o' is used in this description to represent lowercase sigma.

Surface Temperature Anomalies Derived from Night Time ASTER Data Corrected for Solar and Topographic Effects, San Miguel County, Colorado

DOE Data Explorer

Khalid Hussein

2012-02-01

This map shows areas of anomalous surface temperature in Alamosa and Saguache Counties identified from ASTER thermal data and spatial based insolation model. The temperature is calculated using the Emissivity Normalization Algorithm that separate temperature from emissivity. The incoming solar radiation was calculated using spatial based insolation model developed by Fu and Rich (1999). Then the temperature due to solar radiation was calculated using emissivity derived from ASTER data. The residual temperature, i.e. temperature due to solar radiation subtracted from ASTER temperature was used to identify thermally anomalous areas. Areas that had temperature greater than 2o were considered ASTER modeled "very warm modeled surface temperature" are shown in red on the map. Areas that had temperatures between 1o and 2o were considered ASTER modeled "warm modeled surface temperature" are shown in yellow on the map. This map also includes the locations of shallow temperature survey points, locations of springs or wells with favorable geochemistry, faults, transmission lines, and areas of modeled basement weakness "fairways." Note: 'o' is used in this description to represent lowercase sigma.

Surface Temperature Anomalies Derived from Night Time ASTER Data Corrected for Solar and Topographic Effects, Fremont County, Colorado

DOE Data Explorer

Khalid Hussein

2012-02-01

This map shows areas of anomalous surface temperature in Alamosa and Saguache Counties identified from ASTER thermal data and spatial based insolation model. The temperature is calculated using the Emissivity Normalization Algorithm that separate temperature from emissivity. The incoming solar radiation was calculated using spatial based insolation model developed by Fu and Rich (1999). Then the temperature due to solar radiation was calculated using emissivity derived from ASTER data. The residual temperature, i.e. temperature due to solar radiation subtracted from ASTER temperature was used to identify thermally anomalous areas. Areas that had temperature greater than 2o were considered ASTER modeled "very warm modeled surface temperature" are shown in red on the map. Areas that had temperatures between 1o and 2o were considered ASTER modeled "warm modeled surface temperature" are shown in yellow on the map. This map also includes the locations of shallow temperature survey points, locations of springs or wells with favorable geochemistry, faults, transmission lines, and areas of modeled basement weakness "fairways." Note: 'o' is used in this description to represent lowercase sigma.

Surface Temperature Anomalies Derived from Night Time ASTER Data Corrected for Solar and Topographic Effects, Routt County, Colorado

DOE Data Explorer

Khalid Hussein

2012-02-01

This map shows areas of anomalous surface temperature in Alamosa and Saguache Counties identified from ASTER thermal data and spatial based insolation model. The temperature is calculated using the Emissivity Normalization Algorithm that separate temperature from emissivity. The incoming solar radiation was calculated using spatial based insolation model developed by Fu and Rich (1999). Then the temperature due to solar radiation was calculated using emissivity derived from ASTER data. The residual temperature, i.e. temperature due to solar radiation subtracted from ASTER temperature was used to identify thermally anomalous areas. Areas that had temperature greater than 2o were considered ASTER modeled "very warm modeled surface temperature" are shown in red on the map. Areas that had temperatures between 1o and 2o were considered ASTER modeled"warm modeled surface temperature" are shown in yellow on the map. This map also includes the locations of shallow temperature survey points, locations of springs or wells with favorable geochemistry, faults, transmission lines, and areas of modeled basement weakness "fairways." Note: 'o' is used in this description to represent lowercase sigma.

Surface Temperature Anomalies Derived from Night Time ASTER Data Corrected for Solar and Topographic Effects, Alamosa and Saguache Counties, Colorado

DOE Data Explorer

Khalid Hussein

2012-02-01

This map shows areas of anomalous surface temperature in Alamosa and Saguache Counties identified from ASTER thermal data and spatial based insolation model. The temperature is calculated using the Emissivity Normalization Algorithm that separate temperature from emissivity. The incoming solar radiation was calculated using spatial based insolation model developed by Fu and Rich (1999). Then the temperature due to solar radiation was calculated using emissivity derived from ASTER data. The residual temperature, i.e. temperature due to solar radiation subtracted from ASTER temperature was used to identify thermally anomalous areas. Areas that had temperature greater than 2o were considered ASTER modeled "very warm modeled surface temperature" are shown in red on the map. Areas that had temperatures between 1o and 2o were considered ASTER modeled "warm modeled surface temperature" are shown in yellow on the map. This map also includes the locations of shallow temperature survey points, locations of springs or wells with favorable geochemistry, faults, transmission lines, and areas of modeled basement weakness "fairways." Note: 'o' is used in this description to represent lowercase sigma.

Surface Temperature Anomalies Derived from Night Time ASTER Data Corrected for Solar and Topographic Effects, Dolores County

DOE Data Explorer

Khalid Hussein

2012-02-01

This map shows areas of anomalous surface temperature in Alamosa and Saguache Counties identified from ASTER thermal data and spatial based insolation model. The temperature is calculated using the Emissivity Normalization Algorithm that separate temperature from emissivity. The incoming solar radiation was calculated using spatial based insolation model developed by Fu and Rich (1999). Then the temperature due to solar radiation was calculated using emissivity derived from ASTER data. The residual temperature, i.e. temperature due to solar radiation subtracted from ASTER temperature was used to identify thermally anomalous areas. Areas that had temperature greater than 2o were considered ASTER modeled "very warm modeled surface temperature" are shown in red on the map. Areas that had temperatures between 1o and 2o were considered ASTER modeled "warm modeled surface temperature" are shown in yellow on the map. This map also includes the locations of shallow temperature survey points, locations of springs or wells with favorable geochemistry, faults, transmission lines, and areas of modeled basement weakness "fairways." Note: 'o' is used in this description to represent lowercase sigma.

Combining modelling tools to evaluate a goose management scheme.

PubMed

Baveco, Johannes M; Bergjord, Anne-Kari; Bjerke, Jarle W; Chudzińska, Magda E; Pellissier, Loïc; Simonsen, Caroline E; Madsen, Jesper; Tombre, Ingunn M; Nolet, Bart A

2017-03-01

Many goose species feed on agricultural land, and with growing goose numbers, conflicts with agriculture are increasing. One possible solution is to designate refuge areas where farmers are paid to leave geese undisturbed. Here, we present a generic modelling tool that can be used to designate the best locations for refuges and to gauge the area needed to accommodate the geese. With a species distribution model, locations are ranked according to goose suitability. The size of the area to be designated as refuge can be chosen by including more or less suitable locations. A resource depletion model is then used to estimate whether enough resources are available within the designated refuge to accommodate all geese, taking into account the dynamics of food resources, including depletion by geese. We illustrate this with the management scheme for pink-footed goose Anser brachyrhynchus implemented in Norway. Here, all geese can be accommodated, but damage levels appear to depend on weather, land use and refuge size.

Incorporation of habitat information in the development of indices of larval bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus) in the Western Mediterranean Sea (2001-2005 and 2012-2013)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ingram, G. Walter; Alvarez-Berastegui, Diego; Reglero, Patricia; Balbín, Rosa; García, Alberto; Alemany, Francisco

2017-06-01

Fishery independent indices of bluefin tuna larvae in the Western Mediterranean Sea are presented utilizing ichthyoplankton survey data collected from 2001 through 2005 and 2012 through 2013. Indices were developed using larval catch rates collected using two different types of bongo sampling, by first standardizing catch rates by gear/fishing-style and then employing a delta-lognormal modeling approach. The delta-lognormal models were developed three ways: 1) a basic larval index including the following covariates: time of day, a systematic geographic area variable, month and year; 2) a standard environmental larval index including the following covariates: mean water temperature over the mixed layer depth, mean salinity over the mixed layer depth, geostrophic velocity, time of day, a systematic geographic area variable, month and year; and 3) a habitat-adjusted larval index including the following covariates: a potential habitat variable, time of day, a systematic geographic area variable, month and year. Results indicated that all three model-types had similar precision in index values. However, the habitat-adjusted larval index demonstrated a high correlation with estimates of spawning stock biomass from the previous stock assessment model, and, therefore, is recommended as a tuning index in future stock assessment models.

Locally adaptive, spatially explicit projection of US population for 2030 and 2050.

PubMed

McKee, Jacob J; Rose, Amy N; Bright, Edward A; Huynh, Timmy; Bhaduri, Budhendra L

2015-02-03

Localized adverse events, including natural hazards, epidemiological events, and human conflict, underscore the criticality of quantifying and mapping current population. Building on the spatial interpolation technique previously developed for high-resolution population distribution data (LandScan Global and LandScan USA), we have constructed an empirically informed spatial distribution of projected population of the contiguous United States for 2030 and 2050, depicting one of many possible population futures. Whereas most current large-scale, spatially explicit population projections typically rely on a population gravity model to determine areas of future growth, our projection model departs from these by accounting for multiple components that affect population distribution. Modeled variables, which included land cover, slope, distances to larger cities, and a moving average of current population, were locally adaptive and geographically varying. The resulting weighted surface was used to determine which areas had the greatest likelihood for future population change. Population projections of county level numbers were developed using a modified version of the US Census's projection methodology, with the US Census's official projection as the benchmark. Applications of our model include incorporating multiple various scenario-driven events to produce a range of spatially explicit population futures for suitability modeling, service area planning for governmental agencies, consequence assessment, mitigation planning and implementation, and assessment of spatially vulnerable populations.

Earthquake Hazard and Risk in New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Apel, E. V.; Nyst, M.; Fitzenz, D. D.; Molas, G.

2014-12-01

To quantify risk in New Zealand we examine the impact of updating the seismic hazard model. The previous RMS New Zealand hazard model is based on the 2002 probabilistic seismic hazard maps for New Zealand (Stirling et al., 2002). The 2015 RMS model, based on Stirling et al., (2012) will update several key source parameters. These updates include: implementation a new set of crustal faults including multi-segment ruptures, updating the subduction zone geometry and reccurrence rate and implementing new background rates and a robust methodology for modeling background earthquake sources. The number of crustal faults has increased by over 200 from the 2002 model, to the 2012 model which now includes over 500 individual fault sources. This includes the additions of many offshore faults in northern, east-central, and southwest regions. We also use the recent data to update the source geometry of the Hikurangi subduction zone (Wallace, 2009; Williams et al., 2013). We compare hazard changes in our updated model with those from the previous version. Changes between the two maps are discussed as well as the drivers for these changes. We examine the impact the hazard model changes have on New Zealand earthquake risk. Considered risk metrics include average annual loss, an annualized expected loss level used by insurers to determine the costs of earthquake insurance (and premium levels), and the loss exceedance probability curve used by insurers to address their solvency and manage their portfolio risk. We analyze risk profile changes in areas with large population density and for structures of economic and financial importance. New Zealand is interesting in that the city with the majority of the risk exposure in the country (Auckland) lies in the region of lowest hazard, where we don't have a lot of information about the location of faults and distributed seismicity is modeled by averaged Mw-frequency relationships on area sources. Thus small changes to the background rates can have a large impact on the risk profile for the area. Wellington, another area of high exposure is particularly sensitive to how the Hikurangi subduction zone and the Wellington fault are modeled. Minor changes on these sources have substantial impacts for the risk profile of the city and the country at large.

[Study on a new prevention and control model on soil-borne parasitic diseases in rural areas of China].

PubMed

Li, Xue-Ming; Chen, Ying-Dan; Xu, Long-Qi; Zhou, Chang-Hai; Ou-Yang, Yi; Lin, Rui; Yang, Fang-Fang; Zhang, Xiao-Juan; Wang, Ge; Liu, Teng; Wang, Jing

2011-12-01

To explore a new prevention and control model on soil-borne parasitic diseases in rural areas of China. Eight provinces and autonomous regions were selected in China as demonstration areas implementing integrated control on soil-borne parasitic diseases. The integrated control measures included authority organization and harmonization, health education, deworming, and environment modification. After three years, the infection rates of soil-borne parasitic diseases were significantly decreased in these areas. There were three safe guard and organization modes, three health education modes, four mass worming medication modes, and two modes of water, toilet and environment changes. The work in the various demonstration areas was summarized which pointed out a new model with efficiency and local characteristics on soil-borne parasitic disease prevention and control.

The Will, Skill, Tool Model of Technology Integration: Adding Pedagogy as a New Model Construct

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Knezek, Gerald; Christensen, Rhonda

2015-01-01

An expansion of the Will, Skill, Tool Model of Technology Integration to include teacher's pedagogical style is proposed by the authors as a means of advancing the predictive power for level of classroom technology integration to beyond 90%. Suggested advantages to this expansion include more precise identification of areas to be targeted for…

Use of ocean color scanner data in water quality mapping

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Khorram, S.

1981-01-01

Remotely sensed data, in combination with in situ data, are used in assessing water quality parameters within the San Francisco Bay-Delta. The parameters include suspended solids, chlorophyll, and turbidity. Regression models are developed between each of the water quality parameter measurements and the Ocean Color Scanner (OCS) data. The models are then extended to the entire study area for mapping water quality parameters. The results include a series of color-coded maps, each pertaining to one of the water quality parameters, and the statistical analysis of the OCS data and regression models. It is found that concurrently collected OCS data and surface truth measurements are highly useful in mapping the selected water quality parameters and locating areas having relatively high biological activity. In addition, it is found to be virtually impossible, at least within this test site, to locate such areas on U-2 color and color-infrared photography.

Use of a ground-water flow model to delineate contributing areas to the Puchack Well Field, Pennsauken township and vicinity, Camden county, New Jersey

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pope, Daryll A.; Watt, Martha K.

2005-01-01

The New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection (NJDEP) Well Head Protection Program, developed in response to the 1986 Federal Safe Drinking Water Act Amendments, requires delineation of Well Head Protection Areas (WHPA's), commonly called contributing areas, for all public and non-community water-supply wells in New Jersey. Typically, WHPA's for public community water-supply wells in New Jersey are delineated using a two-dimensional ground-water flow model incorporating the regional hydraulic gradient; however, NJDEP guidelines allow for the use of a three-dimensional flow model to delineate contributing areas to wells in complex hydrogeologic settings. The Puchack well field in Pennsauken Township, Camden County, N.J., is an area of strong hydraulic connection between the Lower aquifer of the Potomac-Raritan-Magothy aquifer system and the Delaware River. Interactions among and within the public-supply well fields in the area are complex. To delineate the contributing area to the Puchack well field, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the NJDEP, developed an 11-layer ground-water flow model of the Potomac-Raritan-Magothy aquifer system in the Pennsauken Township area to simulate flow in the vicinity of the well field. The model incorporates the interaction between the aquifer system and the Delaware River, and includes boundary flows from an existing regional model of the Camden area. Recharge used in the model ranged from 4.5 to 14 inches per year, and horizontal hydraulic conductivity ranged from 50 to 250 feet per day. Values of vertical hydraulic conductivity ranging from 0.001 to 0.5 feet per day were assigned to zones created on the basis of variations in hydrogeologic conditions observed in geophysical logs from wells. A steady-state simulation was used to calibrate the model to synoptic water-level data collected in March 1998. Near the Puchack well field, simulated heads generally were within 1 foot of the measured heads in both the Middle and Lower aquifers. Simulated water-level differences across the confining units at most of the nested wells were within ? 0.5 feet of the differences calculated from measured water levels. The existing flow model was modified to meet NJDEP guidelines for delineating contributing areas in complex hydrogeologic settings. These modifications included rediscretizing the model grid to a finer grid and preparing the water-use data set for use in the rediscretized model. The contributing area to the Puchack well field was delineated by means of particle tracking. An uncertainty analysis was conducted in which 36 model-input parameters were both increased and decreased until the resulting change in simulated heads exceeded the model-calibration criterion of ? 5 feet at any model cell. Porosity most affected the size and shape of the contributing area. The distribution of withdrawals at the Morris/Delair well field and variations in recharge affected both the size and shape of contributing area to the Puchack well field and the source of water to the Puchack wells. The results of the uncertainty analysis were combined to determine the 'aggregate' contributing area to the Puchack well field--a composite of areas on the land surface that contributed flow to the Puchack well field in less than 12 years in any uncertainty simulation. The shape of the aggregate contributing area was most similar to that associated with a reduction in porosity, which indirectly affected the size and shape of the contributing areas by changing travel time.

Use of Superposition Models to Simulate Possible Depletion of Colorado River Water by Ground-Water Withdrawal

USGS Publications Warehouse

Leake, Stanley A.; Greer, William; Watt, Dennis; Weghorst, Paul

2008-01-01

According to the 'Law of the River', wells that draw water from the Colorado River by underground pumping need an entitlement for the diversion of water from the Colorado River. Consumptive use can occur through direct diversions of surface water, as well as through withdrawal of water from the river by underground pumping. To develop methods for evaluating the need for entitlements for Colorado River water, an assessment of possible depletion of water in the Colorado River by pumping wells is needed. Possible methods include simple analytical models and complex numerical ground-water flow models. For this study, an intermediate approach was taken that uses numerical superposition models with complex horizontal geometry, simple vertical geometry, and constant aquifer properties. The six areas modeled include larger extents of the previously defined river aquifer from the Lake Mead area to the Yuma area. For the modeled areas, a low estimate of transmissivity and an average estimate of transmissivity were derived from statistical analyses of transmissivity data. Aquifer storage coefficient, or specific yield, was selected on the basis of results of a previous study in the Yuma area. The USGS program MODFLOW-2000 (Harbaugh and others, 2000) was used with uniform 0.25-mile grid spacing along rows and columns. Calculations of depletion of river water by wells were made for a time of 100 years since the onset of pumping. A computer program was set up to run the models repeatedly, each time with a well in a different location. Maps were constructed for at least two transmissivity values for each of the modeled areas. The modeling results, based on the selected transmissivities, indicate that low values of depletion in 100 years occur mainly in parts of side valleys that are more than a few tens of miles from the Colorado River.

Modeling Lake Storage Dynamics to support Arctic Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vimal, S.; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Smith, L. C.; Smith, S.; Bowling, L. C.; Pavelsky, T.

2017-12-01

The Arctic and Boreal Zone (ABZ) of Canada and Alaska includes vast areas of permafrost, lakes, and wetlands. Permafrost thawing in this area is expected to increase due to the projected rise of temperature caused by climate change. Over the long term, this may reduce overall surface water area, but in the near-term, the opposite is being observed, with rising paludification (lake/wetland expansion). One element of NASA's ABoVE field experiment is observations of lake and wetland extent and surface elevations using NASA's AirSWOT airborne interferometric radar, accompanied by a high-resolution camera. One use of the WSE retrievals will be to constrain model estimates of lake storage dynamics. Here, we compare predictions using the lake dynamics algorithm within the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land surface scheme. The VIC lake algorithm includes representation of sub-grid topography, where the depth and area of seasonally-flooded areas are modeled as a function of topographic wetness index, basin area, and slope. The topography data used is from a new global digital elevation model, MERIT-DEM. We initially set up VIC at sites with varying permafrost conditions (i.e., no permafrost, discontinuous, continuous) in Saskatoon and Yellowknife, Canada, and Toolik Lake, Alaska. We constrained the uncalibrated model with the WSE at the time of the first ABoVE flight, and quantified the model's ability to predict WSE and ΔWSE during the time of the second flight. Finally, we evaluated the sensitivity of the VIC-lakes model and compared the three permafrost conditions. Our results quantify the sensitivity of surface water to permafrost state across the target sites. Furthermore, our evaluation of the lake modeling framework contributes to the modeling and mapping framework for lake and reservoir storage change evaluation globally as part of the SWOT mission, planned for launch in 2021.

Summary Report of Working Group 2: Computation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stoltz, P. H.; Tsung, R. S.

2009-01-01

The working group on computation addressed three physics areas: (i) plasma-based accelerators (laser-driven and beam-driven), (ii) high gradient structure-based accelerators, and (iii) electron beam sources and transport [1]. Highlights of the talks in these areas included new models of breakdown on the microscopic scale, new three-dimensional multipacting calculations with both finite difference and finite element codes, and detailed comparisons of new electron gun models with standard models such as PARMELA. The group also addressed two areas of advances in computation: (i) new algorithms, including simulation in a Lorentz-boosted frame that can reduce computation time orders of magnitude, and (ii) new hardware architectures, like graphics processing units and Cell processors that promise dramatic increases in computing power. Highlights of the talks in these areas included results from the first large-scale parallel finite element particle-in-cell code (PIC), many order-of-magnitude speedup of, and details of porting the VPIC code to the Roadrunner supercomputer. The working group featured two plenary talks, one by Brian Albright of Los Alamos National Laboratory on the performance of the VPIC code on the Roadrunner supercomputer, and one by David Bruhwiler of Tech-X Corporation on recent advances in computation for advanced accelerators. Highlights of the talk by Albright included the first one trillion particle simulations, a sustained performance of 0.3 petaflops, and an eight times speedup of science calculations, including back-scatter in laser-plasma interaction. Highlights of the talk by Bruhwiler included simulations of 10 GeV accelerator laser wakefield stages including external injection, new developments in electromagnetic simulations of electron guns using finite difference and finite element approaches.

Summary Report of Working Group 2: Computation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stoltz, P. H.; Tsung, R. S.

2009-01-22

The working group on computation addressed three physics areas: (i) plasma-based accelerators (laser-driven and beam-driven), (ii) high gradient structure-based accelerators, and (iii) electron beam sources and transport [1]. Highlights of the talks in these areas included new models of breakdown on the microscopic scale, new three-dimensional multipacting calculations with both finite difference and finite element codes, and detailed comparisons of new electron gun models with standard models such as PARMELA. The group also addressed two areas of advances in computation: (i) new algorithms, including simulation in a Lorentz-boosted frame that can reduce computation time orders of magnitude, and (ii) newmore » hardware architectures, like graphics processing units and Cell processors that promise dramatic increases in computing power. Highlights of the talks in these areas included results from the first large-scale parallel finite element particle-in-cell code (PIC), many order-of-magnitude speedup of, and details of porting the VPIC code to the Roadrunner supercomputer. The working group featured two plenary talks, one by Brian Albright of Los Alamos National Laboratory on the performance of the VPIC code on the Roadrunner supercomputer, and one by David Bruhwiler of Tech-X Corporation on recent advances in computation for advanced accelerators. Highlights of the talk by Albright included the first one trillion particle simulations, a sustained performance of 0.3 petaflops, and an eight times speedup of science calculations, including back-scatter in laser-plasma interaction. Highlights of the talk by Bruhwiler included simulations of 10 GeV accelerator laser wakefield stages including external injection, new developments in electromagnetic simulations of electron guns using finite difference and finite element approaches.« less

Geothermal Target Areas in Colorado as Identified by Remote Sensing Techniques

DOE Data Explorer

Khalid Hussein

2012-02-01

This layer contains the areas identified as targets of potential geothermal activity. The Criteria used to identify the target areas include: hot/warm surface exposures modeled from ASTER/Landsat satellite imagery and geological characteristics, alteration mineral commonly associated with hot springs (clays, Si, and FeOx) modeled from ASTER and Landsat data, Colorado Geological Survey (CGS) known thermal hot springs/wells and heat-flow data points, Colorado deep-seated fault zones, weakened basement identified from isostatic gravity data, and Colorado sedimentary and topographic characteristics.

The 1977 emissions inventory for southeastern Virginia. [environment model of air quality based on exhaust emission from urban areas

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brewer, D. A.; Remsberg, E. E.; Woodbury, G. E.; Quinn, L. C.

1979-01-01

Regional tropospheric air pollution modeling and data compilation to simulate the time variation of species concentrations in and around an urban area is discussed. The methods used to compile an emissions inventory are outlined. Emissions factors for vehicular travel in the urban area are presented along with an analysis of the emission gases. Emission sources other than vehicular including industrial wastes, residential solid waste disposal, aircraft emissions, and emissions from the railroads are investigated.

Xiangkun Li | NREL

Science.gov Websites

Xiangkun Li Xiangkun Li Engineer - Energy Optimization Modeling Xiangkun.Li@nrel.gov | 303-275-4372 focus areas include renewable energy integration, energy systems optimization, and power flow modeling

Current models broadly neglect specific needs of biodiversity conservation in protected areas under climate change.

PubMed

Sieck, Mungla; Ibisch, Pierre L; Moloney, Kirk A; Jeltsch, Florian

2011-05-03

Protected areas are the most common and important instrument for the conservation of biological diversity and are called for under the United Nations' Convention on Biological Diversity. Growing human population densities, intensified land-use, invasive species and increasing habitat fragmentation threaten ecosystems worldwide and protected areas are often the only refuge for endangered species. Climate change is posing an additional threat that may also impact ecosystems currently under protection. Therefore, it is of crucial importance to include the potential impact of climate change when designing future nature conservation strategies and implementing protected area management. This approach would go beyond reactive crisis management and, by necessity, would include anticipatory risk assessments. One avenue for doing so is being provided by simulation models that take advantage of the increase in computing capacity and performance that has occurred over the last two decades.Here we review the literature to determine the state-of-the-art in modeling terrestrial protected areas under climate change, with the aim of evaluating and detecting trends and gaps in the current approaches being employed, as well as to provide a useful overview and guidelines for future research. Most studies apply statistical, bioclimatic envelope models and focus primarily on plant species as compared to other taxa. Very few studies utilize a mechanistic, process-based approach and none examine biotic interactions like predation and competition. Important factors like land-use, habitat fragmentation, invasion and dispersal are rarely incorporated, restricting the informative value of the resulting predictions considerably. The general impression that emerges is that biodiversity conservation in protected areas could benefit from the application of modern modeling approaches to a greater extent than is currently reflected in the scientific literature. It is particularly true that existing models have been underutilized in testing different management options under climate change. Based on these findings we suggest a strategic framework for more effectively incorporating the impact of climate change in models exploring the effectiveness of protected areas.

In der fachsprachlichen Didaktik ist der "fachneutrale" Vorkurs ein Umweg (In Teaching Technical Language, a "Neutral Area" Course is an Evasion)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Becker, Norbert

1974-01-01

In learning to read technical language, texts in specialized technical fields are preferable to "neutral area" or popular science texts. Assorted textbooks are suggested, along with suitable types of exercises and their use. Model preparatory exercises and model drills are included. (Text is in German.) (IFS/WGA)

Estimation of Total Nitrogen and Phosphorus in New England Streams Using Spatially Referenced Regression Models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moore, Richard Bridge; Johnston, Craig M.; Robinson, Keith W.; Deacon, Jeffrey R.

2004-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) and the New England Interstate Water Pollution Control Commission (NEIWPCC), has developed a water-quality model, called SPARROW (Spatially Referenced Regressions on Watershed Attributes), to assist in regional total maximum daily load (TMDL) and nutrient-criteria activities in New England. SPARROW is a spatially detailed, statistical model that uses regression equations to relate total nitrogen and phosphorus (nutrient) stream loads to nutrient sources and watershed characteristics. The statistical relations in these equations are then used to predict nutrient loads in unmonitored streams. The New England SPARROW models are built using a hydrologic network of 42,000 stream reaches and associated watersheds. Watershed boundaries are defined for each stream reach in the network through the use of a digital elevation model and existing digitized watershed divides. Nutrient source data is from permitted wastewater discharge data from USEPA's Permit Compliance System (PCS), various land-use sources, and atmospheric deposition. Physical watershed characteristics include drainage area, land use, streamflow, time-of-travel, stream density, percent wetlands, slope of the land surface, and soil permeability. The New England SPARROW models for total nitrogen and total phosphorus have R-squared values of 0.95 and 0.94, with mean square errors of 0.16 and 0.23, respectively. Variables that were statistically significant in the total nitrogen model include permitted municipal-wastewater discharges, atmospheric deposition, agricultural area, and developed land area. Total nitrogen stream-loss rates were significant only in streams with average annual flows less than or equal to 2.83 cubic meters per second. In streams larger than this, there is nondetectable in-stream loss of annual total nitrogen in New England. Variables that were statistically significant in the total phosphorus model include discharges for municipal wastewater-treatment facilities and pulp and paper facilities, developed land area, agricultural area, and forested area. For total phosphorus, loss rates were significant for reservoirs with surface areas of 10 square kilometers or less, and in streams with flows less than or equal to 2.83 cubic meters per second. Applications of SPARROW for evaluating nutrient loading in New England waters include estimates of the spatial distributions of total nitrogen and phosphorus yields, sources of the nutrients, and the potential for delivery of those yields to receiving waters. This information can be used to (1) predict ranges in nutrient levels in surface waters, (2) identify the environmental variables that are statistically significant predictors of nutrient levels in streams, (3) evaluate monitoring efforts for better determination of nutrient loads, and (4) evaluate management options for reducing nutrient loads to achieve water-quality goals.

Improving transferability strategies for debris flow susceptibility assessment: Application to the Saponara and Itala catchments (Messina, Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cama, M.; Lombardo, L.; Conoscenti, C.; Rotigliano, E.

2017-07-01

Debris flows can be described as rapid gravity-induced mass movements controlled by topography that are usually triggered as a consequence of storm rainfalls. One of the problems when dealing with debris flow recognition is that the eroded surface is usually very shallow and it can be masked by vegetation or fast weathering as early as one-two years after a landslide has occurred. For this reason, even areas that are highly susceptible to debris flow might suffer of a lack of reliable landslide inventories. However, these inventories are necessary for susceptibility assessment. Model transferability, which is based on calibrating a susceptibility model in a training area in order to predict the distribution of debris flows in a target area, might provide an efficient solution to dealing with this limit. However, when applying a transferability procedure, a key point is the optimal selection of the predictors to be included for calibrating the model in the source area. In this paper, the issue of optimal factor selection is analysed by comparing the predictive performances obtained following three different factor selection criteria. The study includes: i) a test of the similarity between the source and the target areas; ii) the calibration of the susceptibility model in the (training) source area, using different criteria for the selection of the predictors; iii) the validation of the models, both at the source (self-validation, through random partition) and at the target (transferring, through spatial partition) areas. The debris flow susceptibility is evaluated here using binary logistic regression through a R-scripted based procedure. Two separate study areas were selected in the Messina province (southern Italy) in its Ionian (Itala catchment) and Tyrrhenian sides (Saponara catchment), each hit by a severe debris flow event (in 2009 and 2011, respectively). The investigation attested that the best fitting model in the calibration areas resulted poorly performing in predicting the landslides of the test target area. At the same time, the susceptibility models calibrated with an optimal set of covariates in the source area allowed us to produce a robust and accurate prediction image for the debris flows activated in the Saponara catchment in 2011, exploiting only the data known after the Itala-2009 event.

Non-susceptible landslide areas in Italy and in the Mediterranean region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marchesini, I.; Ardizzone, F.; Alvioli, M.; Rossi, M.; Guzzetti, F.

2014-08-01

We used landslide information for 13 study areas in Italy and morphometric information obtained from the 3-arcseconds shuttle radar topography mission digital elevation model (SRTM DEM) to determine areas where landslide susceptibility is expected to be negligible in Italy and in the landmasses surrounding the Mediterranean Sea. The morphometric information consisted of the local terrain slope which was computed in a square 3 × 3-cell moving window, and in the regional relative relief computed in a circular 15 × 15-cell moving window. We tested three different models to classify the "non-susceptible" landslide areas, including a linear model (LNR), a quantile linear model (QLR), and a quantile, non-linear model (QNL). We tested the performance of the three models using independent landslide information presented by the Italian Landslide Inventory (Inventario Fenomeni Franosi in Italia - IFFI). Best results were obtained using the QNL model. The corresponding zonation of non-susceptible landslide areas was intersected in a geographic information system (GIS) with geographical census data for Italy. The result determined that 57.5% of the population of Italy (in 2001) was located in areas where landslide susceptibility is expected to be negligible. We applied the QNL model to the landmasses surrounding the Mediterranean Sea, and we tested the synoptic non-susceptibility zonation using independent landslide information for three study areas in Spain. Results showed that the QNL model was capable of determining where landslide susceptibility is expected to be negligible in the validation areas in Spain. We expect our results to be applicable in similar study areas, facilitating the identification of non-susceptible landslide areas, at the synoptic scale.

Small area estimation (SAE) model: Case study of poverty in West Java Province

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suhartini, Titin; Sadik, Kusman; Indahwati

2016-02-01

This paper showed the comparative of direct estimation and indirect/Small Area Estimation (SAE) model. Model selection included resolve multicollinearity problem in auxiliary variable, such as choosing only variable non-multicollinearity and implemented principal component (PC). Concern parameters in this paper were the proportion of agricultural venture poor households and agricultural poor households area level in West Java Province. The approach for estimating these parameters could be performed based on direct estimation and SAE. The problem of direct estimation, three area even zero and could not be conducted by directly estimation, because small sample size. The proportion of agricultural venture poor households showed 19.22% and agricultural poor households showed 46.79%. The best model from agricultural venture poor households by choosing only variable non-multicollinearity and the best model from agricultural poor households by implemented PC. The best estimator showed SAE better then direct estimation both of the proportion of agricultural venture poor households and agricultural poor households area level in West Java Province. The solution overcame small sample size and obtained estimation for small area was implemented small area estimation method for evidence higher accuracy and better precision improved direct estimator.

Non-susceptible landslide areas in Italy and in the Mediterranean region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marchesini, I.; Ardizzone, F.; Alvioli, M.; Rossi, M.; Guzzetti, F.

2014-04-01

We used landslide information for 13 study areas in Italy and morphometric information obtained from the 3 arc-second SRTM DEM to determine areas where landslide susceptibility is expected to be null or negligible in Italy, and in the landmasses surrounding the Mediterranean Sea. The morphometric information consisted in the local terrain slope computed in a square 3 × 3 cell moving window, and in the regional relative relief computed in a circular 15 × 15 cell moving window. We tested three different models to determine the non-susceptible landslide areas, including a linear model (LR), a quantile linear model (QLR), and a quantile non-linear model (QNL). We tested the performance of the three models using independent landslide information represented by the Italian Landslide Inventory (Inventario Fenomeni Franosi in Italia - IFFI). Best results were obtained using the QNL model. The corresponding zonation of non-susceptible landslide areas was intersected in a GIS with geographical census data for Italy. The result allowed determining that 57.5% of the population of Italy (in 2001) was located in areas where landslide susceptibility is expected to be null or negligible, and that the remaining 42.5% was located in areas where some landslide susceptibility is expected. We applied the QNL model to the landmasses surrounding the Mediterranean Sea, and we tested the synoptic non-susceptibility zonation using independent landslide information for three study areas in Spain. Results proved that the QNL model was capable of determining where landslide susceptibility is expected to be negligible in the Mediterranean area. We expect our results to be applicable in similar study areas, facilitating the identification of non-susceptible and susceptible landslide areas, at the synoptic scale.

Carbon Storage in Urban Areas in the USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Churkina, G.; Brown, D.; Keoleian, G.

2007-12-01

It is widely accepted that human settlements occupy a small proportion of the landmass and therefore play a relatively small role in the dynamics of the global carbon cycle. Most modeling studies focusing on the land carbon cycle use models of varying complexity to estimate carbon fluxes through forests, grasses, and croplands, but completely omit urban areas from their scope. Here, we estimate carbon storage in urban areas within the United States, defined to encompass a range of observed settlement densities, and its changes from 1950 to 2000. We show that this storage is not negligible and has been continuously increasing. We include natural- and human-related components of urban areas in our estimates. The natural component includes carbon storage in urban soil and vegetation. The human related component encompasses carbon stored long term in buildings, furniture, cars, and waste. The study suggests that urban areas should receive continued attention in efforts to accurately account for carbon uptake and storage in terrestrial systems.

Techno-economic assessment of novel vanadium redox flow batteries with large-area cells

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Minke, Christine; Kunz, Ulrich; Turek, Thomas

2017-09-01

The vanadium redox flow battery (VRFB) is a promising electrochemical storage system for stationary megawatt-class applications. The currently limited cell area determined by the bipolar plate (BPP) could be enlarged significantly with a novel extruded large-area plate. For the first time a techno-economic assessment of VRFB in a power range of 1 MW-20 MW and energy capacities of up to 160 MWh is presented on the basis of the production cost model of large-area BPP. The economic model is based on the configuration of a 250 kW stack and the overall system including stacks, power electronics, electrolyte and auxiliaries. Final results include a simple function for the calculation of system costs within the above described scope. In addition, the impact of cost reduction potentials for key components (membrane, electrode, BPP, vanadium electrolyte) on stack and system costs is quantified and validated.

How can mathematical models advance tuberculosis control in high HIV prevalence settings?

PubMed

Houben, R M G J; Dowdy, D W; Vassall, A; Cohen, T; Nicol, M P; Granich, R M; Shea, J E; Eckhoff, P; Dye, C; Kimerling, M E; White, R G

2014-05-01

Existing approaches to tuberculosis (TB) control have been no more than partially successful in areas with high human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevalence. In the context of increasingly constrained resources, mathematical modelling can augment understanding and support policy for implementing those strategies that are most likely to bring public health and economic benefits. In this paper, we present an overview of past and recent contributions of TB modelling in this key area, and suggest a way forward through a modelling research agenda that supports a more effective response to the TB-HIV epidemic, based on expert discussions at a meeting convened by the TB Modelling and Analysis Consortium. The research agenda identified high-priority areas for future modelling efforts, including 1) the difficult diagnosis and high mortality of TB-HIV; 2) the high risk of disease progression; 3) TB health systems in high HIV prevalence settings; 4) uncertainty in the natural progression of TB-HIV; and 5) combined interventions for TB-HIV. Efficient and rapid progress towards completion of this modelling agenda will require co-ordination between the modelling community and key stakeholders, including advocates, health policy makers, donors and national or regional finance officials. A continuing dialogue will ensure that new results are effectively communicated and new policy-relevant questions are addressed swiftly.

Comparison of different interpolation methods for spatial distribution of soil organic carbon and some soil properties in the Black Sea backward region of Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Göl, Ceyhun; Bulut, Sinan; Bolat, Ferhat

2017-10-01

The purpose of this research is to compare the spatial variability of soil organic carbon (SOC) in four adjacent land uses including the cultivated area, the grassland area, the plantation area and the natural forest area in the semi - arid region of Black Sea backward region of Turkey. Some of the soil properties, including total nitrogen, SOC, soil organic matter, and bulk density were measured on a grid with a 50 m sampling distance on the top soil (0-15 cm depth). Accordingly, a total of 120 samples were taken from the four adjacent land uses. Data was analyzed using geostatistical methods. The methods used were: Block kriging (BK), co - kriging (CK) with organic matter, total nitrogen and bulk density as auxiliary variables and inverse distance weighting (IDW) methods with the power of 1, 2 and 4. The methods were compared using a performance criteria that included root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and the coefficient of correlation (r). The one - way ANOVA test showed that differences between the natural (0.6653 ± 0.2901) - plantation forest (0.7109 ± 0.2729) areas and the grassland (1.3964 ± 0.6828) - cultivated areas (1.5851 ± 0.5541) were statistically significant at 0.05 level (F = 28.462). The best model for describing spatially variation of SOC was CK with the lowest error criteria (RMSE = 0.3342, MAE = 0.2292) and the highest coefficient of correlation (r = 0.84). The spatial structure of SOC could be well described by the spherical model. The nugget effect indicated that SOC was moderately dependent on the study area. The error distributions of the model showed that the improved model was unbiased in predicting the spatial distribution of SOC. This study's results revealed that an explanatory variable linked SOC increased success of spatial interpolation methods. In subsequent studies, this case should be taken into account for reaching more accurate outputs.

Model of Environmental Development of the Urbanized Areas: Accounting of Ecological and other Factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abanina, E. N.; Pandakov, K. G.; Agapov, D. A.; Sorokina, Yu V.; Vasiliev, E. H.

2017-05-01

Modern cities and towns are often characterized by poor administration, which could be the reason of environmental degradation, the poverty growth, decline in economic growth and social isolation. In these circumstances it is really important to conduct fresh researches forming new ways of sustainable development of administrative districts. This development of the urban areas depends on many interdependent factors: ecological, economic, social. In this article we show some theoretical aspects of forming a model of environmental progress of the urbanized areas. We submit some model containing four levels including natural resources capacities of the territory, its social features, economic growth and human impact. The author describes the interrelations of elements of the model. In this article the program of environmental development of a city is offered and it could be used in any urban area.

FARSITE: Fire Area Simulator-model development and evaluation

Treesearch

Mark A. Finney

1998-01-01

A computer simulation model, FARSITE, includes existing fire behavior models for surface, crown, spotting, point-source fire acceleration, and fuel moisture. The model's components and assumptions are documented. Simulations were run for simple conditions that illustrate the effect of individual fire behavior models on two-dimensional fire growth.

Coastal and Riverine Flood Forecast Model powered by ADCIRC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khalid, A.; Ferreira, C.

2017-12-01

Coastal flooding is becoming a major threat to increased population in the coastal areas. To protect coastal communities from tropical storms & hurricane damages, early warning systems are being developed. These systems have the capability of real time flood forecasting to identify hazardous coastal areas and aid coastal communities in rescue operations. State of the art hydrodynamic models forced by atmospheric forcing have given modelers the ability to forecast storm surge, water levels and currents. This helps to identify the areas threatened by intense storms. Study on Chesapeake Bay area has gained national importance because of its combined riverine and coastal phenomenon, which leads to greater uncertainty in flood predictions. This study presents an automated flood forecast system developed by following Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) Surge Guidance System (ASGS) guidelines and tailored to take in riverine and coastal boundary forcing, thus includes all the hydrodynamic processes to forecast total water in the Potomac River. As studies on tidal and riverine flow interaction are very scarce in number, our forecast system would be a scientific tool to examine such area and fill the gaps with precise prediction for Potomac River. Real-time observations from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and field measurements have been used as model boundary feeding. The model performance has been validated by using major historical riverine and coastal flooding events. Hydrodynamic model ADCIRC produced promising predictions for flood inundation areas. As better forecasts can be achieved by using coupled models, this system is developed to take boundary conditions from Global WaveWatchIII for the research purposes. Wave and swell propagation will be fed through Global WavewatchIII model to take into account the effects of swells and currents. This automated forecast system is currently undergoing rigorous testing to include any missing parameters which might provide better and more reliable forecast for the flood affected communities.

Bio-physical model provides insight into dispersal of plaice (Pleuronectes platessa L.) from putative spawning grounds to nursery areas on the west coast of Ireland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zölck, Melanie; Brophy, Deirdre; Mohn, Christian; Minto, Cóilín; McGrath, David

2015-05-01

In this study we use an individual-based coupled physical biological model (ICPBM) to reconstruct the dispersal pathways of 0-group juveniles (young of the year) collected from nursery grounds in Galway Bay and to identify probable spawning ground locations for plaice on the west coast of Ireland. The relative importance of passive transport, behaviour and individual growth rates on successful larval delivery, from three putative spawning grounds to suitable nursery areas, was also investigated. Using a hydrodynamic Regional Ocean Modelling System (ROMS), combined with a particle tracking model, three model scenarios were tested: a passive tracer scenario (PTS), a linear growth scenario (LGS) and a temperature-dependent growth scenario (TDS). Hydrodynamic conditions were modelled and biological information (pelagic larval durations and size at settlement) incorporated. The LGS and TDS included vertical migration and tidally synchronised behaviour. Generalized Linear Model (GLM) comparisons showed that incorporation of behaviour and temperature-dependent growth, resulted in approximately two to three times more particles being delivered to sites of suitable depth for settlement (≤ 10 m), compared to passive transport alone (p < 0.001, LGS 19-78%; TDS 40-81%). The probability of successful delivery also varied significantly depending on the location, year and week of release (p < 0.05). A comparison of temperature histories between particles that were delivered to shallow inshore areas and those that failed to reach depths suitable for settlement indicated that dispersal to coastal nursery areas is facilitated by entrainment into a cool coastal current system. This study identifies a probable plaice spawning area in western Ireland and reconfirms the importance of including behaviour and growth in dispersal simulations. The model results suggest that differences in growth can influence larval delivery to potentially suitable nursery areas.

Neural models on temperature regulation for cold-stressed animals

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Horowitz, J. M.

1975-01-01

The present review evaluates several assumptions common to a variety of current models for thermoregulation in cold-stressed animals. Three areas covered by the models are discussed: signals to and from the central nervous system (CNS), portions of the CNS involved, and the arrangement of neurons within networks. Assumptions in each of these categories are considered. The evaluation of the models is based on the experimental foundations of the assumptions. Regions of the nervous system concerned here include the hypothalamus, the skin, the spinal cord, the hippocampus, and the septal area of the brain.

Small area-level variation in the incidence of psychotic disorders in an urban area in France: an ecological study.

PubMed

Szoke, Andrei; Pignon, Baptiste; Baudin, Grégoire; Tortelli, Andrea; Richard, Jean-Romain; Leboyer, Marion; Schürhoff, Franck

2016-07-01

We sought to determine whether significant variation in the incidence of clinically relevant psychoses existed at an ecological level in an urban French setting, and to examine possible factors associated with this variation. We aimed to advance the literature by testing this hypothesis in a novel population setting and by comparing a variety of spatial models. We sought to identify all first episode cases of non-affective and affective psychotic disorders presenting in a defined urban catchment area over a 4 years period, over more than half a million person-years at-risk. Because data from geographic close neighbourhoods usually show spatial autocorrelation, we used for our analyses Bayesian modelling. We included small area neighbourhood measures of deprivation, migrants' density and social fragmentation as putative explanatory variables in the models. Incidence of broad psychotic disorders shows spatial patterning with the best fit for models that included both strong autocorrelation between neighbouring areas and weak autocorrelation between areas further apart. Affective psychotic disorders showed similar spatial patterning and were associated with the proportion of migrants/foreigners in the area (inverse correlation). In contrast, non-affective psychoses did not show spatial patterning. At ecological level, the variation in the number of cases and the factors that influence this variation are different for non-affective and affective psychotic disorders. Important differences in results-compared with previous studies in different settings-point to the importance of the context and the necessity of further studies to understand these differences.

The role of macroinvertebrates for conservation of freshwater systems.

PubMed

Nieto, Carolina; Ovando, Ximena M C; Loyola, Rafael; Izquierdo, Andrea; Romero, Fátima; Molineri, Carlos; Rodríguez, José; Rueda Martín, Paola; Fernández, Hugo; Manzo, Verónica; Miranda, María José

2017-07-01

Freshwater ecosystems are the most threatened ecosystems worldwide. Argentinian-protected areas have been established mainly to protect vertebrates and plants in terrestrial ecosystems. In order to create a comprehensive biodiverse conservation plan, it is crucial to integrate both aquatic and terrestrial systems and to include macroinvertebrates. Here, we address this topic by proposing priority areas of conservation including invertebrates, aquatic ecosystems, and their connectivity and land uses. Northwest of Argentina. We modeled the ecological niches of different taxa of macroinvertebrates such as Coleoptera, Ephemeroptera, Hemiptera, Megaloptera, Lepidoptera, Odonata, Plecoptera, Trichoptera, Acari, and Mollusca. Based on these models, we analyzed the contribution of currently established protected areas in the conservation of the aquatic biodiversity and we propose a spatial prioritization taking into account possible conflict regarding different land uses. Our analysis units were the real watersheds, to which were added longitudinal connectivity up and down the rivers. A total of 132 species were modeled in the priority area analyses. The analysis 1 showed that only an insignificant percentage of the macroinvertebrates distribution is within the protected areas in the North West of Argentina. The analyses 2 and 3 recovered similar values of protection for the macroinvertebrate species. The upper part of Bermejo, Salí-Dulce, San Francisco, and the Upper part of Juramento basins were identified as priority areas of conservation. The aquatic ecosystems need special protection and 10% or even as much as 17% of land conservation is insufficient for species of macroinvertebrates. In turn the protected areas need to combine the aquatic and terrestrial systems and need to include macroinvertebrates as a key group to sustain the biodiversity. In many cases, the land uses are in conflict with the conservation of biodiversity; however, it is possible to apply the connectivity of the watersheds and create multiple-use modules.

Comparing the Global Charcoal Database with Burned Area Trends from an Offline Fire Model Driven by the NCAR Last Millennium Ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schaefer, A.; Magi, B. I.; Marlon, J. R.; Bartlein, P. J.

2017-12-01

This study uses an offline fire model driven by output from the NCAR Community Earth System Model Last Millennium Ensemble (LME) to evaluate how climate, ecological, and human factors contributed to burned area over the past millennium, and uses the Global Charcoal Database (GCD) record of fire activity as a constraint. The offline fire model is similar to the fire module within the NCAR Community Land Model. The LME experiment includes 13 simulations of the Earth system from 850 CE through 2005 CE, and the fire model simulates burned area using LME climate and vegetation with imposed land use and land cover change. The fire model trends are compared to GCD records of charcoal accumulation rates derived from sediment cores. The comparisons are a way to assess the skill of the fire model, but also set up a methodology to directly test hypotheses of the main drivers of fire patterns over the past millennium. The focus is on regions selected from the GCD with high data density, and that have lake sediment cores that best capture the last millennium. Preliminary results are based on a fire model which excludes burning cropland and pasture land cover types, but this allows some assessment of how climate variability is captured by the fire model. Generally, there is good agreement between modeled burned area trends and fire trends from GCD for many regions of interest, suggesting the strength of climate variability as a control. At the global scale, trends and features are similar from 850 to 1700, which includes the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age. After 1700, the trends significantly deviate, which may be due to non-cultivated land being converted to cultivated. In key regions of high data density in the GCD such as the Western USA, the trends agree from 850 to 1200 but diverge from 1200 to 1300. From 1300 to 1800, the trends show good agreement again. Implementing processes to include burning cultivated land within the fire model is anticipated to improve the agreement, but also to test the sensitivity of models to different drivers of fire.

The effectiveness of surrogate taxa to conserve freshwater biodiversity.

PubMed

Stewart, David R; Underwood, Zachary E; Rahel, Frank J; Walters, Annika W

2018-02-01

Establishing protected areas has long been an effective conservation strategy and is often based on readily surveyed species. The potential of any freshwater taxa to be a surrogate for other aquatic groups has not been explored fully. We compiled occurrence data on 72 species of freshwater fishes, amphibians, mussels, and aquatic reptiles for the Great Plains, Wyoming (U.S.A.). We used hierarchical Bayesian multispecies mixture models and MaxEnt models to describe species' distributions and the program Zonation to identify areas of conservation priority for each aquatic group. The landscape-scale factors that best characterized aquatic species' distributions differed among groups. There was low agreement and congruence among taxa-specific conservation priorities (<20%), meaning no surrogate priority areas would include or protect the best habitats of other aquatic taxa. Common, wideranging aquatic species were included in taxa-specific priority areas, but rare freshwater species were not included. Thus, the development of conservation priorities based on a single freshwater aquatic group would not protect all species in the other aquatic groups. © 2017 Society for Conservation Biology.

Testing geographical and climatic controls on glacier retreat

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Freudiger, Daphné; Stahl, Kerstin; Weiler, Markus

2015-04-01

Glacier melt provides an important part of the summer discharge in many mountainous basins. The understanding of the processes behind the glacier mass losses and glacier retreats observed during the last century is therefore relevant for a sustainable management of the water resources and reliable models for the prediction of future changes. The changes in glacier area of 49 sub-basins of the Rhine River in the Alps were analyzed for the time period 1900-2010 by comparing the glacier areas of Siegfried maps for the years 1900 and 1940 with satellite derived glacier areas for the years 1973, 2003 and 2010. The aim was to empirically investigate the controls of glacier retreat and its regional differences. All glaciers in the glacierized basins retreated over the last 110 years with some variations in the sub-periods. However, the relative changes in glacier area compared to 1900 differed for every sub-basin and some glaciers decreased much faster than others. These observed differences were related to a variety of different potential controls derived from different sources, including mean annual solar radiation on the glacier surface, average slope, mean glacier elevation, initial glacier area, average precipitation (summer and winter), and the precipitation catchment area of the glacier. We fitted a generalized linear model (GLM) and selected predictors that were significant to assess the individual effects of the potential controls. The fitted model explains more than 60% of the observed variance of the relative change in glacier area with the initial area alone only explaining a small proportion. Some interesting patterns emerge with higher average elevation resulting in higher area changes, but steeper slopes or solar radiation resulting in lower relative glacier area changes. Further controls that will be tested include snow transport by wind or avalanches as they play an important role for the glacier mass balance and potentially reduce the changes in glacier area. The derived predictors will be further analyzed and the observed general patterns will be compared to modeling studies of glacier changes.

An individual-tree basal area growth model for loblolly pine stands

Treesearch

Paul A. Murphy; Michael G. Shelton

1996-01-01

Tree basal area growth has been modeled as a combination of a potential growth function and a modifier function, in which the potential function is fitted separately from open-grown tree data or a subset of the data and the modifier function includes stand and site variables. We propose a modification of this by simultaneously fitting both a growth component and a...

NV PFA - Steptoe Valley

DOE Data Explorer

Jim Faulds

2015-10-29

All datasets and products specific to the Steptoe Valley model area. Includes a packed ArcMap project (.mpk), individually zipped shapefiles, and a file geodatabase for the northern Steptoe Valley area; a GeoSoft Oasis montaj project containing GM-SYS 2D gravity profiles along the trace of our seismic reflection lines; a 3D model in EarthVision; spreadsheet of links to published maps; and spreadsheets of well data.

Climate Change Could Increase the Geographic Extent of Hendra Virus Spillover Risk.

PubMed

Martin, Gerardo; Yanez-Arenas, Carlos; Chen, Carla; Plowright, Raina K; Webb, Rebecca J; Skerratt, Lee F

2018-03-19

Disease risk mapping is important for predicting and mitigating impacts of bat-borne viruses, including Hendra virus (Paramyxoviridae:Henipavirus), that can spillover to domestic animals and thence to humans. We produced two models to estimate areas at potential risk of HeV spillover explained by the climatic suitability for its flying fox reservoir hosts, Pteropus alecto and P. conspicillatus. We included additional climatic variables that might affect spillover risk through other biological processes (such as bat or horse behaviour, plant phenology and bat foraging habitat). Models were fit with a Poisson point process model and a log-Gaussian Cox process. In response to climate change, risk expanded southwards due to an expansion of P. alecto suitable habitat, which increased the number of horses at risk by 175-260% (110,000-165,000). In the northern limits of the current distribution, spillover risk was highly uncertain because of model extrapolation to novel climatic conditions. The extent of areas at risk of spillover from P. conspicillatus was predicted shrink. Due to a likely expansion of P. alecto into these areas, it could replace P. conspicillatus as the main HeV reservoir. We recommend: (1) HeV monitoring in bats, (2) enhancing HeV prevention in horses in areas predicted to be at risk, (3) investigate and develop mitigation strategies for areas that could experience reservoir host replacements.

Evaluation of Advanced Reactive Surface Area Estimates for Improved Prediction of Mineral Reaction Rates in Porous Media

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beckingham, L. E.; Mitnick, E. H.; Zhang, S.; Voltolini, M.; Yang, L.; Steefel, C. I.; Swift, A.; Cole, D. R.; Sheets, J.; Kneafsey, T. J.; Landrot, G.; Anovitz, L. M.; Mito, S.; Xue, Z.; Ajo Franklin, J. B.; DePaolo, D.

2015-12-01

CO2 sequestration in deep sedimentary formations is a promising means of reducing atmospheric CO2 emissions but the rate and extent of mineral trapping remains difficult to predict. Reactive transport models provide predictions of mineral trapping based on laboratory mineral reaction rates, which have been shown to have large discrepancies with field rates. This, in part, may be due to poor quantification of mineral reactive surface area in natural porous media. Common estimates of mineral reactive surface area are ad hoc and typically based on grain size, adjusted several orders of magnitude to account for surface roughness and reactivity. This results in orders of magnitude discrepancies in estimated surface areas that directly translate into orders of magnitude discrepancies in model predictions. Additionally, natural systems can be highly heterogeneous and contain abundant nano- and micro-porosity, which can limit connected porosity and access to mineral surfaces. In this study, mineral-specific accessible surface areas are computed for a sample from the reservoir formation at the Nagaoka pilot CO2 injection site (Japan). Accessible mineral surface areas are determined from a multi-scale image analysis including X-ray microCT, SEM QEMSCAN, XRD, SANS, and SEM-FIB. Powder and flow-through column laboratory experiments are performed and the evolution of solutes in the aqueous phase is tracked. Continuum-scale reactive transport models are used to evaluate the impact of reactive surface area on predictions of experimental reaction rates. Evaluated reactive surface areas include geometric and specific surface areas (eg. BET) in addition to their reactive-site weighted counterparts. The most accurate predictions of observed powder mineral dissolution rates were obtained through use of grain-size specific surface areas computed from a BET-based correlation. Effectively, this surface area reflects the grain-fluid contact area, or accessible surface area, in the powder dissolution experiment. In the model of the flow-through column experiment, the accessible mineral surface area, computed from the multi-scale image analysis, is evaluated in addition to the traditional surface area estimates.

MOCASSIM - an operational forecast system for the Portuguese coastal waters.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vitorino, J.; Soares, C.; Almeida, S.; Rusu, E.; Pinto, J.

2003-04-01

An operational system for the forecast of oceanographic conditions off the Portuguese coast is presently being implemented at Instituto Hidrográfico (IH), in the framework of project MOCASSIM. The system is planned to use a broad range of observations provided both from IH observational networks (wave buoys, tidal gauges) and programs (hydrographic surveys, moorings) as well as from external sources. The MOCASSIM system integrates several numerical models which, combined, are intended to cover the relevant physical processes observed in the geographical areas of interest. At the present stage of development the system integrates a circulation module and a wave module. The circulation module is based on the Harvard Ocean Prediction System (HOPS), a primitive equation model formulated under the rigid lid assumption, which includes a data assimilation module. The wave module is based on the WaveWatch3 (WW3) model, which provides wave conditions in the North Atlantic basin, and on the SWAN model which is used to improve the wave forecasts on coastal or other specific areas of interest. The models use the meteorological forcing fields of a limited area model (ALADIN model) covering the Portuguese area, which are being provided in the framework of a close colaboration with Instituto de Meteorologia. Although still under devellopment, the MOCASSIM system has already been used in several operationnal contexts. These included the operational environmental assessment during both national and NATO navy exercises and, more recently, the monitoring of the oceanographic conditions in the NW Iberian area affected by the oil spill of MV "Prestige". The system is also a key component of ongoing research on the oceanography of the Portuguese continental margin, which is presently being conducted at IH in the framework of national and European funded projects.

Modeling in Big Data Environments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Endert, Alexander; Szymczak, Samantha; Gunning, Dave

Human-Centered Big Data Research (HCBDR) is an area of work that focuses on the methodologies and research areas focused on understanding how humans interact with “big data”. In the context of this paper, we refer to “big data” in a holistic sense, including most (if not all) the dimensions defining the term, such as complexity, variety, velocity, veracity, etc. Simply put, big data requires us as researchers of to question and reconsider existing approaches, with the opportunity to illuminate new kinds of insights that were traditionally out of reach to humans. The purpose of this article is to summarize themore » discussions and ideas about the role of models in HCBDR at a recent workshop. Models, within the context of this paper, include both computational and conceptual mental models. As such, the discussions summarized in this article seek to understand the connection between these two categories of models.« less

The 2018 and 2020 Updates of the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petersen, M. D.

2017-12-01

During 2018 the USGS will update the 2014 National Seismic Hazard Models by incorporating new seismicity models, ground motion models, site factors, fault inputs, and by improving weights to ground motion models using empirical and other data. We will update the earthquake catalog for the U.S. and introduce new rate models. Additional fault data will be used to improve rate estimates on active faults. New ground motion models (GMMs) and site factors for Vs30 have been released by the Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center (PEER) and we will consider these in assessing ground motions in craton and extended margin regions of the central and eastern U.S. The USGS will also include basin-depth terms for selected urban areas of the western United States to improve long-period shaking assessments using published depth estimates to 1.0 and 2.5 km/s shear wave velocities. We will produce hazard maps for input into the building codes that span a broad range of periods (0.1 to 5 s) and site classes (shear wave velocity from 2000 m/s to 200 m/s in the upper 30 m of the crust, Vs30). In the 2020 update we plan on including: a new national crustal model that defines basin depths required in the latest GMMs, new 3-D ground motion simulations for several urban areas, new magnitude-area equations, and new fault geodetic and geologic strain rate models. The USGS will also consider including new 3-D ground motion simulations for inclusion in these long-period maps. These new models are being evaluated and will be discussed at one or more regional and topical workshops held at the beginning of 2018.

Modelling of labour productivity loss due to climate change: HEAT-SHIELD

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kjellstrom, Tord; Daanen, Hein

2016-04-01

Climate change will bring higher heat levels (temperature and humidity combined) to large parts of the world. When these levels reach above thresholds well defined by human physiology, the ability to maintain physical activity levels decrease and labour productivity is reduced. This impact is of particular importance in work situations in areas with long high intensity hot seasons, but also affects cooler areas during heat waves. Our modelling of labour productivity loss includes climate model data of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Inter-comparison Project (ISI-MIP), calculations of heat stress indexes during different months, estimations of work capacity loss and its annual impacts in different parts of the world. Different climate models will be compared for the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and the outcomes of the 2015 Paris Climate Conference (COP21) agreements. The validation includes comparisons of modelling outputs with actual field studies using historical heat data. These modelling approaches are a first stage contribution to the European Commission funded HEAT-SHIELD project.

Assessing uncertainties in land cover projections.

PubMed

Alexander, Peter; Prestele, Reinhard; Verburg, Peter H; Arneth, Almut; Baranzelli, Claudia; Batista E Silva, Filipe; Brown, Calum; Butler, Adam; Calvin, Katherine; Dendoncker, Nicolas; Doelman, Jonathan C; Dunford, Robert; Engström, Kerstin; Eitelberg, David; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Harrison, Paula A; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Havlik, Petr; Holzhauer, Sascha; Humpenöder, Florian; Jacobs-Crisioni, Chris; Jain, Atul K; Krisztin, Tamás; Kyle, Page; Lavalle, Carlo; Lenton, Tim; Liu, Jiayi; Meiyappan, Prasanth; Popp, Alexander; Powell, Tom; Sands, Ronald D; Schaldach, Rüdiger; Stehfest, Elke; Steinbuks, Jevgenijs; Tabeau, Andrzej; van Meijl, Hans; Wise, Marshall A; Rounsevell, Mark D A

2017-02-01

Understanding uncertainties in land cover projections is critical to investigating land-based climate mitigation policies, assessing the potential of climate adaptation strategies and quantifying the impacts of land cover change on the climate system. Here, we identify and quantify uncertainties in global and European land cover projections over a diverse range of model types and scenarios, extending the analysis beyond the agro-economic models included in previous comparisons. The results from 75 simulations over 18 models are analysed and show a large range in land cover area projections, with the highest variability occurring in future cropland areas. We demonstrate systematic differences in land cover areas associated with the characteristics of the modelling approach, which is at least as great as the differences attributed to the scenario variations. The results lead us to conclude that a higher degree of uncertainty exists in land use projections than currently included in climate or earth system projections. To account for land use uncertainty, it is recommended to use a diverse set of models and approaches when assessing the potential impacts of land cover change on future climate. Additionally, further work is needed to better understand the assumptions driving land use model results and reveal the causes of uncertainty in more depth, to help reduce model uncertainty and improve the projections of land cover. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Conceptual model of a coastal hydrosystem in a semi-arid environment subjected to the climate change: the case of Lavrion, Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pouliaris, Christos; Schumann, Philipp; Danneberg, Nils-Christian; Foglia, Laura; Kallioras, Andreas; Schüth, Christoph

2015-04-01

Groundwater management in arid areas has become a major issue worldwide, and it is expected to be exacerbated due to climate change. Low annual precipitation and high evaporation potential are the key features of these areas, with additional pressure added to the system due to abstractions for irrigation and water supply purposes. Typical example of such scenarios exist in the Mediterranean area, where drought and water scarcity, especially in the warm period of the hydrological year, give rise to major management issues in coastal areas. Among the different solutions, the implementation of Managed Aquifer Recharge (MAR) schemes have been suggested in the EU FP7 project MARSOL (Demonstrating Managed Aquifer Recharge as a Solution to Water Scarcity and Drought). In the project, different sites across the Mediterranean are tested for investigating the viability of various MAR techniques in different hydrological systems facing qualitative and quantitative deterioration of their groundwater resources. The coastal hydrosystem of Lavrion was selected due to its typical Mediterranean characteristics (climatic, hydrologic, hydrogeological, geological etc.); all within a rather small area of extent ( < 50km2), that render it as a reference site for hydrologic modeling applications. It consists of a set of aquifer layers (karstified limestone and alluvial) which are hydraulically connected to the sea and an ephemeral torrent (wadi) that flows through a typical small Mediterranean alluvial valley. The major water resources problems of the area are mainly qualitative issues of the groundwaters; in specific: (i) seawater intrusion, (ii) nitrate contamination and (iii) heavy metal pollution due to past and recent mining and metallurgical activities The modelling approach will include the development of three distinct models that will be integrated. The aim is to depict how systems with characteristics like the ones mentioned above perform and, which different scenarios can be applied, aiming at identifying the most viable (with respect to water budget) MAR strategy for the specific area. Meteorological data, field data and site investigations provide the input data for all the different models. The field activities already conducted included: an inventory of all existing pumping wells; the development of a monitoring network for qualitative and quantitative environmental data acquisition at different scales and hydrologic zones; installation of multi-level piezometers for tailored monitoring of the seawater wedge; and geophysical surveys of subsurface characterization. The combination of literature review and field investigations led to the development of the conceptual model of the area along with the realization of the spatial distribution of each model. The hydraulic connections of the two aquifers, the surface water system and the sea have been identified and the upcoming activities aim in quantifying them and include them in the models being under development. The groundwater chemical characteristics have been examined, with results showing the major influence from seawater intrusion. All the data mentioned above are used for the development of the integrated hydrological model of the Lavrion area.

A Note on Spatial Averaging and Shear Stresses Within Urban Canopies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, Zheng-Tong; Fuka, Vladimir

2018-04-01

One-dimensional urban models embedded in mesoscale numerical models may place several grid points within the urban canopy. This requires an accurate parametrization for shear stresses (i.e. vertical momentum fluxes) including the dispersive stress and momentum sinks at these points. We used a case study with a packing density of 33% and checked rigorously the vertical variation of spatially-averaged total shear stress, which can be used in a one-dimensional column urban model. We found that the intrinsic spatial average, in which the volume or area of the solid parts are not included in the average process, yield greater time-spatial average of total stress within the canopy and a more evident abrupt change at the top of the buildings than the comprehensive spatial average, in which the volume or area of the solid parts are included in the average.

Assessment of Climate Suitability of Maize in South Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hyun, S.; Choi, D.; Seo, B.

2017-12-01

Assessing suitable areas for crops would be useful to design alternate cropping systems as an adaptation option to climate change adaptation. Although suitable areas could be identified by using a crop growth model, it would require a number of input parameters including cultivar and soil. Instead, a simple climate suitability model, e.g., EcoCrop model, could be used for an assessment of climate suitability for a major grain crop. The objective of this study was to assess of climate suitability for maize using the EcoCrop model under climate change conditions in Korea. A long term climate data from 2000 - 2100 were compiled from weather data source. The EcoCrop model implemented in R was used to determine climate suitability index at each grid cell. Overall, the EcoCrop model tended to identify suitable areas for maize production near the coastal areas whereas the actual major production areas located in inland areas. It is likely that the discrepancy between assessed and actual crop production areas would result from the socioeconomic aspects of maize production. Because the price of maize is considerably low, maize has been grown in an area where moisture and temperature conditions would be less than optimum. In part, a simple algorithm to predict climate suitability for maize would caused a relatively large error in climate suitability assessment under the present climate conditions. In 2050s, the climate suitability for maize increased in a large areas in southern and western part of Korea. In particular, the plain areas near the coastal region had considerably greater suitability index in the future compared with mountainous areas. The expansion of suitable areas for maize would help crop production policy making such as the allocation of rice production area for other crops due to considerably less demand for the rice in Korea.

Empirical models to predict the volumes of debris flows generated by recently burned basins in the western U.S.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gartner, J.E.; Cannon, S.H.; Santi, P.M.; deWolfe, V.G.

2008-01-01

Recently burned basins frequently produce debris flows in response to moderate-to-severe rainfall. Post-fire hazard assessments of debris flows are most useful when they predict the volume of material that may flow out of a burned basin. This study develops a set of empirically-based models that predict potential volumes of wildfire-related debris flows in different regions and geologic settings. The models were developed using data from 53 recently burned basins in Colorado, Utah and California. The volumes of debris flows in these basins were determined by either measuring the volume of material eroded from the channels, or by estimating the amount of material removed from debris retention basins. For each basin, independent variables thought to affect the volume of the debris flow were determined. These variables include measures of basin morphology, basin areas burned at different severities, soil material properties, rock type, and rainfall amounts and intensities for storms triggering debris flows. Using these data, multiple regression analyses were used to create separate predictive models for volumes of debris flows generated by burned basins in six separate regions or settings, including the western U.S., southern California, the Rocky Mountain region, and basins underlain by sedimentary, metamorphic and granitic rocks. An evaluation of these models indicated that the best model (the Western U.S. model) explains 83% of the variability in the volumes of the debris flows, and includes variables that describe the basin area with slopes greater than or equal to 30%, the basin area burned at moderate and high severity, and total storm rainfall. This model was independently validated by comparing volumes of debris flows reported in the literature, to volumes estimated using the model. Eighty-seven percent of the reported volumes were within two residual standard errors of the volumes predicted using the model. This model is an improvement over previous models in that it includes a measure of burn severity and an estimate of modeling errors. The application of this model, in conjunction with models for the probability of debris flows, will enable more complete and rapid assessments of debris flow hazards following wildfire.

Microscopic simulation model calibration and validation handbook.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2006-01-01

Microscopic traffic simulation models are widely used in the transportation engineering field. Because of their cost-effectiveness, risk-free nature, and high-speed benefits, areas of use include transportation system design, traffic operations, and ...

Utah FORGE Site Location, Datasets, and Models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Joe Moore

This submission includes the geographic extent shapefile of the Milford FORGE site located in Utah, along with a shapefile of seismometer positions throughout the area, and models of basin depth and potentiometric contours.

Self-Identity Development Model of Oppressed People: Inclusive Model for All?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Highlen, Pamela S.; And Others

The Self-Identity Development Model of Oppressed People (SIDMOP) is a synthesis of several areas of psychology, including developmental, cross cultural, and spiritual literatures. SIDMOP provides an all-inclusive model of identity development for oppressed minorities in the United States, regardless of ethnicity. The model was formulated from the…

Model Refinement and Simulation of Groundwater Flow in Clinton, Eaton, and Ingham Counties, Michigan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Luukkonen, Carol L.

2010-01-01

A groundwater-flow model that was constructed in 1996 of the Saginaw aquifer was refined to better represent the regional hydrologic system in the Tri-County region, which consists of Clinton, Eaton, and Ingham Counties, Michigan. With increasing demand for groundwater, the need to manage withdrawals from the Saginaw aquifer has become more important, and the 1996 model could not adequately address issues of water quality and quantity. An updated model was needed to better address potential effects of drought, locally high water demands, reduction of recharge by impervious surfaces, and issues affecting water quality, such as contaminant sources, on water resources and the selection of pumping rates and locations. The refinement of the groundwater-flow model allows simulations to address these issues of water quantity and quality and provides communities with a tool that will enable them to better plan for expansion and protection of their groundwater-supply systems. Model refinement included representation of the system under steady-state and transient conditions, adjustments to the estimated regional groundwater-recharge rates to account for both temporal and spatial differences, adjustments to the representation and hydraulic characteristics of the glacial deposits and Saginaw Formation, and updates to groundwater-withdrawal rates to reflect changes from the early 1900s to 2005. Simulations included steady-state conditions (in which stresses remained constant and changes in storage were not included) and transient conditions (in which stresses changed in annual and monthly time scales and changes in storage within the system were included). These simulations included investigation of the potential effects of reduced recharge due to impervious areas or to low-rainfall/drought conditions, delineation of contributing areas with recent pumping rates, and optimization of pumping subject to various quantity and quality constraints. Simulation results indicate potential declines in water levels in both the upper glacial aquifer and the upper sandstone bedrock aquifer under steady-state and transient conditions when recharge was reduced by 20 and 50 percent in urban areas. Transient simulations were done to investigate reduced recharge due to low rainfall and increased pumping to meet anticipated future demand with 24 months (2 years) of modified recharge or modified recharge and pumping rates. During these two simulation years, monthly recharge rates were reduced by about 30 percent, and monthly withdrawal rates for Lansing area production wells were increased by 15 percent. The reduction in the amount of water available to recharge the groundwater system affects the upper model layers representing the glacial aquifers more than the deeper bedrock layers. However, with a reduction in recharge and an increase in withdrawals from the bedrock aquifer, water levels in the bedrock layers are affected more than those in the glacial layers. Differences in water levels between simulations with reduced recharge and reduced recharge with increased pumping are greatest in the Lansing area and least away from pumping centers, as expected. Additionally, the increases in pumping rates had minimal effect on most simulated streamflows. Additional simulations included updating the estimated 10-year wellhead-contributing areas for selected Lansing-area wells under 2006-7 pumping conditions. Optimization of groundwater withdrawals with a water-resource management model was done to determine withdrawal rates while minimizing operational costs and to determine withdrawal locations to achieve additional capacity while meeting specified head constraints. In these optimization scenarios, the desired groundwater withdrawals are achieved by simulating managed wells (where pumping rates can be optimized) and unmanaged wells (where pumping rates are not optimized) and by using various combinations of existing and proposed well locations.

Estimation of source locations of total gaseous mercury measured in New York State using trajectory-based models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Young-Ji; Holsen, Thomas M.; Hopke, Philip K.

Ambient gaseous phase mercury concentrations (TGM) were measured at three locations in NY State including Potsdam, Stockton, and Sterling from May 2000 to March 2005. Using these data, three hybrid receptor models incorporating backward trajectories were used to identify source areas for TGM. The models used were potential source contribution function (PSCF), residence time weighted concentration (RTWC), and simplified quantitative transport bias analysis (SQTBA). Each model was applied using multi-site measurements to resolve the locations of important mercury sources for New York State. PSCF results showed that southeastern New York, Ohio, Indiana, Tennessee, Louisiana, and Virginia were important TGM source areas for these sites. RTWC identified Canadian sources including the metal production facilities in Ontario and Quebec, but US regional sources including the Ohio River Valley were also resolved. Sources in southeastern NY, Massachusetts, western Pennsylvania, Indiana, and northern Illinois were identified to be significant by SQTBA. The three modeling results were combined to locate the most important probable source locations, and those are Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, and Wisconsin. The Atlantic Ocean was suggested to be a possible source as well.

Spatial Variability in Column CO2 Inferred from High Resolution GEOS-5 Global Model Simulations: Implications for Remote Sensing and Inversions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ott, L.; Putman, B.; Collatz, J.; Gregg, W.

2012-01-01

Column CO2 observations from current and future remote sensing missions represent a major advancement in our understanding of the carbon cycle and are expected to help constrain source and sink distributions. However, data assimilation and inversion methods are challenged by the difference in scale of models and observations. OCO-2 footprints represent an area of several square kilometers while NASA s future ASCENDS lidar mission is likely to have an even smaller footprint. In contrast, the resolution of models used in global inversions are typically hundreds of kilometers wide and often cover areas that include combinations of land, ocean and coastal areas and areas of significant topographic, land cover, and population density variations. To improve understanding of scales of atmospheric CO2 variability and representativeness of satellite observations, we will present results from a global, 10-km simulation of meteorology and atmospheric CO2 distributions performed using NASA s GEOS-5 general circulation model. This resolution, typical of mesoscale atmospheric models, represents an order of magnitude increase in resolution over typical global simulations of atmospheric composition allowing new insight into small scale CO2 variations across a wide range of surface flux and meteorological conditions. The simulation includes high resolution flux datasets provided by NASA s Carbon Monitoring System Flux Pilot Project at half degree resolution that have been down-scaled to 10-km using remote sensing datasets. Probability distribution functions are calculated over larger areas more typical of global models (100-400 km) to characterize subgrid-scale variability in these models. Particular emphasis is placed on coastal regions and regions containing megacities and fires to evaluate the ability of coarse resolution models to represent these small scale features. Additionally, model output are sampled using averaging kernels characteristic of OCO-2 and ASCENDS measurement concepts to create realistic pseudo-datasets. Pseudo-data are averaged over coarse model grid cell areas to better understand the ability of measurements to characterize CO2 distributions and spatial gradients on both short (daily to weekly) and long (monthly to seasonal) time scales

Refining climate change projections for organisms with low dispersal abilities: a case study of the Caspian whip snake.

PubMed

Sahlean, Tiberiu C; Gherghel, Iulian; Papeş, Monica; Strugariu, Alexandru; Zamfirescu, Ştefan R

2014-01-01

Climate warming is one of the most important threats to biodiversity. Ectothermic organisms such as amphibians and reptiles are especially vulnerable as climatic conditions affect them directly. Ecological niche models (ENMs) are increasingly popular in ecological studies, but several drawbacks exist, including the limited ability to account for the dispersal potential of the species. In this study, we use ENMs to explore the impact of global climate change on the Caspian whip snake (Dolichophis caspius) as model for organisms with low dispersal abilities and to quantify dispersal to novel areas using GIS techniques. Models generated using Maxent 3.3.3 k and GARP for current distribution were projected on future climatic scenarios. A cost-distance analysis was run in ArcGIS 10 using geomorphological features, ecological conditions, and human footprint as "costs" to dispersal of the species to obtain a Maximum Dispersal Range (MDR) estimate. All models developed were statistically significant (P<0.05) and recovered the currently known distribution of D. caspius. Models projected on future climatic conditions using Maxent predicted a doubling of suitable climatic area, while GARP predicted a more conservative expansion. Both models agreed on an expansion of suitable area northwards, with minor decreases at the southern distribution limit. The MDR area calculated using the Maxent model represented a third of the total area of the projected model. The MDR based on GARP models recovered only about 20% of the total area of the projected model. Thus, incorporating measures of species' dispersal abilities greatly reduced estimated area of potential future distributions.

Dynamics of aerospace vehicles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schmidt, David K.

1991-01-01

The focus of this research was to address the modeling, including model reduction, of flexible aerospace vehicles, with special emphasis on models used in dynamic analysis and/or guidance and control system design. In the modeling, it is critical that the key aspects of the system being modeled be captured in the model. In this work, therefore, aspects of the vehicle dynamics critical to control design were important. In this regard, fundamental contributions were made in the areas of stability robustness analysis techniques, model reduction techniques, and literal approximations for key dynamic characteristics of flexible vehicles. All these areas are related. In the development of a model, approximations are always involved, so control systems designed using these models must be robust against uncertainties in these models.

The Distributional Ecology of the Maned Sloth: Environmental Influences on Its Distribution and Gaps in Knowledge

PubMed Central

Coutinho, Bruno Rocha; Zanon, Mariana Santos; Mendes, Sérgio Lucena

2014-01-01

The maned sloth Bradypus torquatus (Pilosa, Bradypodidae) is endemic to a small area in the Atlantic Forest of coastal Brazil. It has been listed as a threatened species because of its restricted geographic range, habitat loss and fragmentation, and declining populations. The major objectives of this study were to estimate its potential geographic distribution, the climatic conditions across its distributional range, and to identify suitable areas and potential species strongholds. We developed a model of habitat suitability for the maned sloth using two methods, Maxent and Mahalanobis Distance, based on 42 occurrence points. We evaluated environmental variable importance and the predictive ability of the generated distribution models. Our results suggest that the species distribution could be strongly influenced by environmental factors, mainly temperature seasonality. The modeled distribution of the maned sloth included known areas of occurrence in the Atlantic Forest (Sergipe, Bahia, Espírito Santo, and Rio de Janeiro), but did not match the observed distributional gaps in northern Rio de Janeiro, northern Espírito Santo or southern Bahia. Rather, the model showed that these areas are climatically suitable for the maned sloth, and thus suggests that factors other than climate might be responsible for the absence of species. Suitable areas for maned sloth were located mainly in the mountainous region of central Rio de Janeiro throughout Espírito Santo and to the coastal region of southern Bahia. We indicate 17 stronghold areas and recommended survey areas for the maned sloth. In addition, we highlight specific areas for conservation, including the current network protected areas. Our results can be applied for novel surveys and discovery of unknown populations, and help the selection of priority areas for management and conservation planning, especially of rare and relatively cryptic species directed associated with forested habitats. PMID:25338139

A review of methods for predicting air pollution dispersion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mathis, J. J., Jr.; Grose, W. L.

1973-01-01

Air pollution modeling, and problem areas in air pollution dispersion modeling were surveyed. Emission source inventory, meteorological data, and turbulent diffusion are discussed in terms of developing a dispersion model. Existing mathematical models of urban air pollution, and highway and airport models are discussed along with their limitations. Recommendations for improving modeling capabilities are included.

Localized Multi-Model Extremes Metrics for the Fourth National Climate Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, T. R.; Kunkel, K.; Stevens, L. E.; Easterling, D. R.; Biard, J.; Sun, L.

2017-12-01

We have performed localized analysis of scenario-based datasets for the Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4). These datasets include CMIP5-based Localized Constructed Analogs (LOCA) downscaled simulations at daily temporal resolution and 1/16th-degree spatial resolution. Over 45 temperature and precipitation extremes metrics have been processed using LOCA data, including threshold, percentile, and degree-days calculations. The localized analysis calculates trends in the temperature and precipitation extremes metrics for relatively small regions such as counties, metropolitan areas, climate zones, administrative areas, or economic zones. For NCA4, we are currently addressing metropolitan areas as defined by U.S. Census Bureau Metropolitan Statistical Areas. Such localized analysis provides essential information for adaptation planning at scales relevant to local planning agencies and businesses. Nearly 30 such regions have been analyzed to date. Each locale is defined by a closed polygon that is used to extract LOCA-based extremes metrics specific to the area. For each metric, single-model data at each LOCA grid location are first averaged over several 30-year historical and future periods. Then, for each metric, the spatial average across the region is calculated using model weights based on both model independence and reproducibility of current climate conditions. The range of single-model results is also captured on the same localized basis, and then combined with the weighted ensemble average for each region and each metric. For example, Boston-area cooling degree days and maximum daily temperature is shown below for RCP8.5 (red) and RCP4.5 (blue) scenarios. We also discuss inter-regional comparison of these metrics, as well as their relevance to risk analysis for adaptation planning.

Estimation of a Stopping Criterion for Geophysical Granular Flows Based on Numerical Experimentation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, B.; Dalbey, K.; Bursik, M.; Patra, A.; Pitman, E. B.

2004-12-01

Inundation area may be the most important factor for mitigation of natural hazards related to avalanches, debris flows, landslides and pyroclastic flows. Run-out distance is the key parameter for inundation because the front deposits define the leading edge of inundation. To define the run-out distance, it is necessary to know when a flow stops. Numerical experiments are presented for determining a stopping criterion and exploring the suitability of a Savage-Hutter granular model for computing inundation areas of granular flows. The TITAN2D model was employed to run numerical experiments based on the Savage-Hutter theory. A potentially reasonable stopping criterion was found as a function of dimensionless average velocity, aspect ratio of pile, internal friction angle, bed friction angle and bed slope in the flow direction. Slumping piles on a horizontal surface and geophysical flows over complex topography were simulated. Several mountainous areas, including Colima volcano (MX), Casita (Nic.), Little Tahoma Peak (WA, USA) and the San Bernardino Mountains (CA, USA) were used to simulate geophysical flows. Volcanic block and ash flows, debris avalanches and debris flows occurred in these areas and caused varying degrees of damage. The areas have complex topography, including locally steep open slopes, sinuous channels, and combinations of these. With different topography and physical scaling, slumping piles and geophysical flows have a somewhat different dependence of dimensionless stopping velocity on power-law constants associated with aspect ratio of pile, internal friction angle, bed friction angle and bed slope in the flow direction. Visual comparison of the details of the inundation area obtained from the TITAN2D model with models that contain some form of viscous dissipation point out weaknesses in the model that are not evident by investigation of the stopping criterion alone.

Life Satisfaction: The Richard Cory Syndrome.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gatz, Margaret; And Others

This study of life satisfaction and competence was part of the Individual and Community Competence Project (Gatz and others, 1976). It included two groups of people, community workers (N=21) and non-workers (N=22), from each of two settings, Model Neighborhoods Areas (MNA) and Central Area (CNA). The MNA is a black area, while the CNA is a white…

75 FR 16689 - Airworthiness Directives; Airbus Model A318, A319, A320, and A321 Series Airplanes

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-04-02

... other areas (splice/lower rib/upper edge/leading edge/other specified locations), and elasticity laminate checks for de-bonding of the rudders in the trailing edge area and other areas (splice/lower rib/upper edge/leading edge/other specified locations). Corrective actions include contacting Airbus for...

Development of a screening tool using electronic health records for undiagnosed Type 2 diabetes mellitus and impaired fasting glucose detection in the Slovenian population.

PubMed

Štiglic, G; Kocbek, P; Cilar, L; Fijačko, N; Stožer, A; Zaletel, J; Sheikh, A; Povalej Bržan, P

2018-05-01

To develop and validate a simplified screening test for undiagnosed Type 2 diabetes mellitus and impaired fasting glucose for the Slovenian population (SloRisk) to be used in the general population. Data on 11 391 people were collected from the electronic health records of comprehensive medical examinations in five Slovenian healthcare centres. Fasting plasma glucose as well as information related to the Finnish Diabetes Risk Score questionnaire, FINDRISC, were collected for 2073 people to build predictive models. Bootstrapping-based evaluation was used to estimate the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve performance metric of two proposed logistic regression models as well as the Finnish Diabetes Risk Score model both at recommended and at alternative cut-off values. The final model contained five questions for undiagnosed Type 2 diabetes prediction and achieved an area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve of 0.851 (95% CI 0.850-0.853). The impaired fasting glucose prediction model included six questions and achieved an area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve of 0.840 (95% CI 0.839-0.840). There were four questions that were included in both models (age, sex, waist circumference and blood sugar history), with physical activity selected only for undiagnosed Type 2 diabetes and questions on family history and hypertension drug use selected only for the impaired fasting glucose prediction model. This study proposes two simplified models based on FINDRISC questions for screening of undiagnosed Type 2 diabetes and impaired fasting glucose in the Slovenian population. A significant improvement in performance was achieved compared with the original FINDRISC questionnaire. Both models include waist circumference instead of BMI. © 2018 Diabetes UK.

Individual-tree basal area growth, survival, and total height models for upland hardwoods in the Boston Mountains of Arkansa

Treesearch

Paul A. Murphy; David L. Graney

1988-01-01

Models were developed for individual-tree basal area growth, survival, and total heights for different species of upland hardwoods in the Boston Mountains of north Arkansas. Data used were from 87 permanent plots located in an array of different sites and stand ages; the plots were thinned to different stocking levels and included unthinned controls. To test these...

Numerical simulation of ground-water flow through glacial deposits and crystalline bedrock in the Mirror Lake area, Grafton County, New Hampshire

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tiedeman, Claire; Goode, Daniel J.; Hsieh, Paul A.

1997-01-01

This report documents the development of a computer model to simulate steady-state (long-term average) flow of ground water in the vicinity of Mirror Lake, which lies at the eastern end of the Hubbard Brook valley in central New Hampshire. The 10-km2 study area includes Mirror Lake, the three streams that flow into Mirror Lake, Leeman's Brook, Paradise Brook, and parts of Hubbard Brook and the Pemigewasset River. The topography of the area is characterized by steep hillsides and relatively flat valleys. Major hydrogeologic units include glacial deposits, composed of till containing pockets of sand and gravel, and fractured crystalline bedrock, composed of schist intruded by granite, pegmatite, and lamprophyre. Ground water occurs in both the glacial deposits and bedrock. Precipitation and snowmelt infiltrate to the water table on the hillsides, flow downslope through the saturated glacial deposits and fractured bedrock, and discharge to streams and to Mirror Lake. The model domain includes the glacial deposits, the uppermost 150m of bedrock, Mirror Lake, the layer of organic sediments on the lake bottom, and streams and rivers within the study area. A streamflow routing package was included in the model to simulate baseflow in streams and interaction between streams and ground water. Recharge from precipitation is assumed to be areally uniform, and riparian evapotranspiration along stream banks is assumed negligible. The spatial distribution of hydraulic conductivity is represented by dividing the model domain into several zones, each having uniform hydraulic properties. Local variations in recharge and hydraulic conductivities are ignored; therefore, the simulation results characterize the general ground-water system, not local details of ground-water movement. The model was calibrated using a nonlinear regression method to match hydraulic heads measured in piezometers and wells, and baseflow in three inlet streams to Mirror Lake. Model calibration indicates that recharge from precipitation to the water table is 26 to 28 cm/year. Hydraulic conductivities are 1.7 x 10-6 to 2.7 x 10-6 m/s for glacial deposits, about 3 x 10-7 m/s for bedrock beneath lower hillsides and valleys, and about 6x10-8 m/s for bedrock beneath upper hillsides and hilltops. Analysis of parameter uncertainty indicates that the above values are well constrained, at least within the context of regression analysis. In the regression, several attributes of the ground-water flow model are assumed perfectly known. The hydraulic conductivity for bedrock beneath upper hillsides and hilltops was determined from few data, and additional data are needed to further confirm this result. Model fit was not improved by introducing a 10-to-1 ration of horizontal-to-vertical anisotropy in the hydraulic conductivity of the glacial deposits, or by varying hydraulic conductivity with depth in the modeled part (uppermost 150m) of the bedrock. The calibrated model was used to delineate the Mirror Lake ground-water basin, defined as the volumes of subsurface through which ground water flows from the water table to Mirror Lake or its inlet streams. Results indicate that Mirror Lake and its inlet streams drain an area of ground-water recharge that is about 1.5 times the area of the surface-water basin. The ground-water basin extends far up the hillside on the northwestern part of the study area. Ground water from this area flows at depth under Norris Brook to discharge into Mirror Lake or its inlet streams. As a result, the Mirror Lake ground-water basin extends beneath the adjacent ground-water basin that drains into Norris Brook. Model simulation indicates that approximately 300,000 m3/year of precipitation recharges the Mirror Lake ground-water basin. About half the recharge enters the basin in areas where the simulated water table lies in glacial deposits; the other half enters the basin in areas where the simulated water table lies in be

Mathematical model of parking space unit for triangular parking area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Syahrini, Intan; Sundari, Teti; Iskandar, Taufiq; Halfiani, Vera; Munzir, Said; Ramli, Marwan

2018-01-01

Parking space unit (PSU) is an effective measure for the area size of a vehicle, including the free space and the width of the door opening of the vehicle (car). This article discusses a mathematical model for parking space of vehicles in triangular shape area. An optimization model for triangular parking lot is developed. Integer Linear Programming (ILP) method is used to determine the maximum number of the PSU. The triangular parking lot is in isosceles and equilateral triangles shape and implements four possible rows and five possible angles for each field. The vehicles which are considered are cars and motorcycles. The results show that the isosceles triangular parking area has 218 units of optimal PSU, which are 84 units of PSU for cars and 134 units of PSU for motorcycles. Equilateral triangular parking area has 688 units of optimal PSU, which are 175 units of PSU for cars and 513 units of PSU for motorcycles.

Mapping tree density in forests of the southwestern USA using Landsat 8 data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Humagain, Kamal; Portillo-Quintero, Carlos; Cox, Robert D.; Cain, James W.

2017-01-01

The increase of tree density in forests of the American Southwest promotes extreme fire events, understory biodiversity losses, and degraded habitat conditions for many wildlife species. To ameliorate these changes, managers and scientists have begun planning treatments aimed at reducing fuels and increasing understory biodiversity. However, spatial variability in tree density across the landscape is not well-characterized, and if better known, could greatly influence planning efforts. We used reflectance values from individual Landsat 8 bands (bands 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, and 7) and calculated vegetation indices (difference vegetation index, simple ratios, and normalized vegetation indices) to estimate tree density in an area planned for treatment in the Jemez Mountains, New Mexico, characterized by multiple vegetation types and a complex topography. Because different vegetation types have different spectral signatures, we derived models with multiple predictor variables for each vegetation type, rather than using a single model for the entire project area, and compared the model-derived values to values collected from on-the-ground transects. Among conifer-dominated areas (73% of the project area), the best models (as determined by corrected Akaike Information Criteria (AICc)) included Landsat bands 2, 3, 4, and 7 along with simple ratios, normalized vegetation indices, and the difference vegetation index (R2 values for ponderosa: 0.47, piñon-juniper: 0.52, and spruce-fir: 0.66). On the other hand, in aspen-dominated areas (9% of the project area), the best model included individual bands 4 and 2, simple ratio, and normalized vegetation index (R2 value: 0.97). Most areas dominated by ponderosa, pinyon-juniper, or spruce-fir had more than 100 trees per hectare. About 54% of the study area has medium to high density of trees (100–1000 trees/hectare), and a small fraction (4.5%) of the area has very high density (>1000 trees/hectare). Our results provide a better understanding of tree density for identifying areas in need of treatment and planning for more effective treatment. Our analysis also provides an integrated method of estimating tree density across complex landscapes that could be useful for further restoration planning.

Hydrogeologic settings and groundwater-flow simulations for regional investigations of the transport of anthropogenic and natural contaminants to public-supply wells—Investigations begun in 2004

USGS Publications Warehouse

Eberts, Sandra M.

2011-01-01

A study of the Transport of Anthropogenic and Natural Contaminants to public-supply wells (TANC study) was begun in 2001 as part of the U.S. Geological Survey National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program. The study was designed to shed light on factors that affect the vulnerability of groundwater and, more specifically, water from public-supply wells to contamination to provide a context for the NAWQA Program's earlier finding of mixtures of contaminants at low concentrations in groundwater near the water table in urban areas across the Nation. The TANC study has included investigations at both the regional (tens to thousands of square kilometers) and local (generally less than 25 square kilometers) scales. At the regional scale, the approach to investigation involves refining conceptual models of groundwater flow in hydrologically distinct settings and then constructing or updating a groundwater-flow model with particle tracking for each setting to help quantify regional water budgets, public-supply well contributing areas (areas contributing recharge to wells and zones of contribution for wells), and traveltimes from recharge areas to selected wells. A great deal of information about each contributing area is captured from the model output, including values for 170 variables that describe physical and (or) geochemical characteristics of the contributing areas. The information is subsequently stored in a relational database. Retrospective water-quality data from monitoring, domestic, and many of the public-supply wells, as well as data from newly collected samples at selected public-supply wells, also are stored in the database and are used with the model output to help discern the more important factors affecting vulnerability in many, if not most, settings. The study began with investigations in seven regional areas, and it benefits from being conducted as part of the NAWQA Program, in which consistent methods are used so that meaningful comparisons can be made. The hydrogeologic settings and regional-scale groundwater-flow models from the initial seven regional areas are documented in Chapter A of this U.S. Geological Survey Professional Paper. Also documented in Chapter A are the methods used to collect and compile the water-quality data, determine contributing areas of the public-supply wells, and characterize the oxidation-reduction (redox) conditions in each setting. A data dictionary for the database that was designed to enable joint storage and access to water-quality data and groundwater-flow model particle-tracking output is included as Appendix 1 of Chapter A. This chapter, Chapter B, documents modifications to the study methods and presents descriptions of two regional areas that were added to the TANC study in 2004.

Water Pollution Prediction in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area and Countermeasures for Sustainable Development of the Water Environment.

PubMed

Li, Yinghui; Huang, Shuaijin; Qu, Xuexin

2017-10-27

The Three Gorges Project was implemented in 1994 to promote sustainable water resource use and development of the water environment in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area (hereafter "Reservoir Area"). However, massive discharge of wastewater along the river threatens these goals; therefore, this study employs a grey prediction model (GM) to predict the annual emissions of primary pollution sources, including industrial wastewater, domestic wastewater, and oily and domestic wastewater from ships, that influence the Three Gorges Reservoir Area water environment. First, we optimize the initial values of a traditional GM (1,1) model, and build a new GM (1,1) model that minimizes the sum of squares of the relative simulation errors. Second, we use the new GM (1,1) model to simulate historical annual emissions data for the four pollution sources and thereby test the effectiveness of the model. Third, we predict the annual emissions of the four pollution sources in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area for a future period. The prediction results reveal the annual emission trends for the major wastewater types, and indicate the primary sources of water pollution in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area. Based on our predictions, we suggest several countermeasures against water pollution and towards the sustainable development of the water environment in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area.

Thermodynamically Constrained Averaging Theory (TCAT) Two-Phase Flow Model: Derivation, Closure, and Simulation Results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weigand, T. M.; Miller, C. T.; Dye, A. L.; Gray, W. G.; McClure, J. E.; Rybak, I.

2015-12-01

The thermodynamically constrained averaging theory (TCAT) has been usedto formulate general classes of porous medium models, including newmodels for two-fluid-phase flow. The TCAT approach provides advantagesthat include a firm connection between the microscale, or pore scale,and the macroscale; a thermodynamically consistent basis; explicitinclusion of factors such as interfacial areas, contact angles,interfacial tension, and curvatures; and dynamics of interface movementand relaxation to an equilibrium state. In order to render the TCATmodel solvable, certain closure relations are needed to relate fluidpressure, interfacial areas, curvatures, and relaxation rates. In thiswork, we formulate and solve a TCAT-based two-fluid-phase flow model. We detail the formulation of the model, which is a specific instancefrom a hierarchy of two-fluid-phase flow models that emerge from thetheory. We show the closure problem that must be solved. Using recentresults from high-resolution microscale simulations, we advance a set ofclosure relations that produce a closed model. Lastly, we solve the model using a locally conservative numerical scheme and compare the TCAT model to the traditional model.

Modeling and water quality assessment during realisation of the coastal projects in Sochi region (Black sea coast of Russia)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prokhoda-Shumskikh, L.

2012-04-01

Sochi region is the unique subtropical resort on the Black Sea coast of Russia. Nowadays due to Sochi is the capital of the Olympic game 2014, the government of the Russian Federation accepts the special federal program of Black Sea coast development. Program foresees the existing and creation of new coastal recreational and touristic complexes along the Russian Black Sea coast, such as complex of yacht harbors, water centers (aqua-centers), network of port localities and etc. These coastal projects are different, but the main problems of the environmental impact assessment are the same. The environmental impact and the relative damage should be assessed at the stage of construction as well as at the stage of operation. The key problem for the recreation coastal zone is water quality management. The port localities network as example is considered. To increase the accuracy and informative of forecasts for the coastal zone conditions the system-dynamic model has been developed, what allows to estimate the quality of the sea water, including that in the semi-enclosed coastal water areas with the limited water exchange. The model of water quality in the coastal zone includes the equations of deposit concentration changes and chemical substances evolution in the studied areas. The model incorporates joint description of cycles of two biogenic elements - nitrogen and phosphorus. The system is completely defined by the biogeochemical reactions. The sizes of such water areas allow the applying the full mixing and zero-dimensional models of water quality. The circulation of water inside the area is taken into account additionally. Water exchange in the semi-enclosed coastal water areas is defined by the discharge through the open parts of area border. The novelty of the offered model is its adaptation to the specific conditions of semi-enclosed coastal water areas. At the same time, the model contains details of the biogeochemical processes to complete modelling of the water quality. The developed system dynamics model is realized in the «PowerSim Studio» media. The data of natural measurements of water quality are applied for the model verification, and the correlated numerical results for the Russian Black Sea coast are presented. The main objective of the present paper is to present the actual examples, and to generalise the problems and to discuss the possible approaches of their solution.

Conceptual model of the Great Basin carbonate and alluvial aquifer system

USGS Publications Warehouse

Heilweil, Victor M.; Brooks, Lynette E.

2011-01-01

A conceptual model of the Great Basin carbonate and alluvial aquifer system (GBCAAS) was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) for a regional assessment of groundwater availability as part of a national water census. The study area is an expansion of a previous USGS Regional Aquifer Systems Analysis (RASA) study conducted during the 1980s and 1990s of the carbonate-rock province of the Great Basin. The geographic extent of the study area is 110,000 mi2, predominantly in eastern Nevada and western Utah, and includes 165 hydrographic areas (HAs) and 17 regional groundwater flow systems.A three-dimensional hydrogeologic framework was constructed that defines the physical geometry and rock types through which groundwater moves. The diverse sedimentary units of the GBCAAS study area are grouped into hydrogeologic units (HGUs) that are inferred to have reasonably distinct hydrologic properties due to their physical characteristics. These HGUs are commonly disrupted by large-magnitude offset thrust, strike-slip, and normal faults, and locally affected by caldera formation. The most permeable aquifer materials within the study area include Cenozoic unconsolidated sediments and volcanic rocks, along with Mesozoic and Paleozoic carbonate rocks. The framework was built by extracting and combining information from digital elevation models, geologic maps, cross sections, drill hole logs, existing hydrogeologic frameworks, and geophysical data.

Machine learning for predicting soil classes in three semi-arid landscapes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brungard, Colby W.; Boettinger, Janis L.; Duniway, Michael C.; Wills, Skye A.; Edwards, Thomas C.

2015-01-01

Mapping the spatial distribution of soil taxonomic classes is important for informing soil use and management decisions. Digital soil mapping (DSM) can quantitatively predict the spatial distribution of soil taxonomic classes. Key components of DSM are the method and the set of environmental covariates used to predict soil classes. Machine learning is a general term for a broad set of statistical modeling techniques. Many different machine learning models have been applied in the literature and there are different approaches for selecting covariates for DSM. However, there is little guidance as to which, if any, machine learning model and covariate set might be optimal for predicting soil classes across different landscapes. Our objective was to compare multiple machine learning models and covariate sets for predicting soil taxonomic classes at three geographically distinct areas in the semi-arid western United States of America (southern New Mexico, southwestern Utah, and northeastern Wyoming). All three areas were the focus of digital soil mapping studies. Sampling sites at each study area were selected using conditioned Latin hypercube sampling (cLHS). We compared models that had been used in other DSM studies, including clustering algorithms, discriminant analysis, multinomial logistic regression, neural networks, tree based methods, and support vector machine classifiers. Tested machine learning models were divided into three groups based on model complexity: simple, moderate, and complex. We also compared environmental covariates derived from digital elevation models and Landsat imagery that were divided into three different sets: 1) covariates selected a priori by soil scientists familiar with each area and used as input into cLHS, 2) the covariates in set 1 plus 113 additional covariates, and 3) covariates selected using recursive feature elimination. Overall, complex models were consistently more accurate than simple or moderately complex models. Random forests (RF) using covariates selected via recursive feature elimination was consistently the most accurate, or was among the most accurate, classifiers between study areas and between covariate sets within each study area. We recommend that for soil taxonomic class prediction, complex models and covariates selected by recursive feature elimination be used. Overall classification accuracy in each study area was largely dependent upon the number of soil taxonomic classes and the frequency distribution of pedon observations between taxonomic classes. Individual subgroup class accuracy was generally dependent upon the number of soil pedon observations in each taxonomic class. The number of soil classes is related to the inherent variability of a given area. The imbalance of soil pedon observations between classes is likely related to cLHS. Imbalanced frequency distributions of soil pedon observations between classes must be addressed to improve model accuracy. Solutions include increasing the number of soil pedon observations in classes with few observations or decreasing the number of classes. Spatial predictions using the most accurate models generally agree with expected soil–landscape relationships. Spatial prediction uncertainty was lowest in areas of relatively low relief for each study area.

Highway Safety Manual applied in Missouri - freeway/software : research summary.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-03-01

AASHTOs Highway Safety Manual (HSM) : includes models for freeway segments, speedchange : lanes (transitional area between mainline : and ramps), ramps, and interchange terminals. : These predictive models for freeway : interchanges need to be cal...

Information system success model for customer relationship management system in health promotion centers.

PubMed

Choi, Wona; Rho, Mi Jung; Park, Jiyun; Kim, Kwang-Jum; Kwon, Young Dae; Choi, In Young

2013-06-01

Intensified competitiveness in the healthcare industry has increased the number of healthcare centers and propelled the introduction of customer relationship management (CRM) systems to meet diverse customer demands. This study aimed to develop the information system success model of the CRM system by investigating previously proposed indicators within the model. THE EVALUATION AREAS OF THE CRM SYSTEM INCLUDES THREE AREAS: the system characteristics area (system quality, information quality, and service quality), the user area (perceived usefulness and user satisfaction), and the performance area (personal performance and organizational performance). Detailed evaluation criteria of the three areas were developed, and its validity was verified by a survey administered to CRM system users in 13 nationwide health promotion centers. The survey data were analyzed by the structural equation modeling method, and the results confirmed that the model is feasible. Information quality and service quality showed a statistically significant relationship with perceived usefulness and user satisfaction. Consequently, the perceived usefulness and user satisfaction had significant influence on individual performance as well as an indirect influence on organizational performance. This study extends the research area on information success from general information systems to CRM systems in health promotion centers applying a previous information success model. This lays a foundation for evaluating health promotion center systems and provides a useful guide for successful implementation of hospital CRM systems.

Information System Success Model for Customer Relationship Management System in Health Promotion Centers

PubMed Central

Choi, Wona; Rho, Mi Jung; Park, Jiyun; Kim, Kwang-Jum; Kwon, Young Dae

2013-01-01

Objectives Intensified competitiveness in the healthcare industry has increased the number of healthcare centers and propelled the introduction of customer relationship management (CRM) systems to meet diverse customer demands. This study aimed to develop the information system success model of the CRM system by investigating previously proposed indicators within the model. Methods The evaluation areas of the CRM system includes three areas: the system characteristics area (system quality, information quality, and service quality), the user area (perceived usefulness and user satisfaction), and the performance area (personal performance and organizational performance). Detailed evaluation criteria of the three areas were developed, and its validity was verified by a survey administered to CRM system users in 13 nationwide health promotion centers. The survey data were analyzed by the structural equation modeling method, and the results confirmed that the model is feasible. Results Information quality and service quality showed a statistically significant relationship with perceived usefulness and user satisfaction. Consequently, the perceived usefulness and user satisfaction had significant influence on individual performance as well as an indirect influence on organizational performance. Conclusions This study extends the research area on information success from general information systems to CRM systems in health promotion centers applying a previous information success model. This lays a foundation for evaluating health promotion center systems and provides a useful guide for successful implementation of hospital CRM systems. PMID:23882416

Complete analysis of steady and transient missile aerodynamic/propulsive/plume flowfield interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

York, B. J.; Sinha, N.; Dash, S. M.; Hosangadi, A.; Kenzakowski, D. C.; Lee, R. A.

1992-07-01

The analysis of steady and transient aerodynamic/propulsive/plume flowfield interactions utilizing several state-of-the-art computer codes (PARCH, CRAFT, and SCHAFT) is discussed. These codes have been extended to include advanced turbulence models, generalized thermochemistry, and multiphase nonequilibrium capabilities. Several specialized versions of these codes have been developed for specific applications. This paper presents a brief overview of these codes followed by selected cases demonstrating steady and transient analyses of conventional as well as advanced missile systems. Areas requiring upgrades include turbulence modeling in a highly compressible environment and the treatment of particulates in general. Recent progress in these areas are highlighted.

Short note: the experimental geopotential model XGM2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pail, R.; Fecher, T.; Barnes, D.; Factor, J. F.; Holmes, S. A.; Gruber, T.; Zingerle, P.

2018-04-01

As a precursor study for the upcoming combined Earth Gravitational Model 2020 (EGM2020), the Experimental Gravity Field Model XGM2016, parameterized as a spherical harmonic series up to degree and order 719, is computed. XGM2016 shares the same combination methodology as its predecessor model GOCO05c (Fecher et al. in Surv Geophys 38(3): 571-590, 2017. doi: 10.1007/s10712-016-9406-y). The main difference between these models is that XGM2016 is supported by an improved terrestrial data set of 15^' × 15^' gravity anomaly area-means provided by the United States National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA), resulting in significant upgrades compared to existing combined gravity field models, especially in continental areas such as South America, Africa, parts of Asia, and Antarctica. A combination strategy of relative regional weighting provides for improved performance in near-coastal ocean regions, including regions where the altimetric data are mostly unchanged from previous models. Comparing cumulative height anomalies, from both EGM2008 and XGM2016 at degree/order 719, yields differences of 26 cm in Africa and 40 cm in South America. These differences result from including additional information of satellite data, as well as from the improved ground data in these regions. XGM2016 also yields a smoother Mean Dynamic Topography with significantly reduced artifacts, which indicates an improved modeling of the ocean areas.

A linear programming model for preserving privacy when disclosing patient spatial information for secondary purposes.

PubMed

Jung, Ho-Won; El Emam, Khaled

2014-05-29

A linear programming (LP) model was proposed to create de-identified data sets that maximally include spatial detail (e.g., geocodes such as ZIP or postal codes, census blocks, and locations on maps) while complying with the HIPAA Privacy Rule's Expert Determination method, i.e., ensuring that the risk of re-identification is very small. The LP model determines the transition probability from an original location of a patient to a new randomized location. However, it has a limitation for the cases of areas with a small population (e.g., median of 10 people in a ZIP code). We extend the previous LP model to accommodate the cases of a smaller population in some locations, while creating de-identified patient spatial data sets which ensure the risk of re-identification is very small. Our LP model was applied to a data set of 11,740 postal codes in the City of Ottawa, Canada. On this data set we demonstrated the limitations of the previous LP model, in that it produces improbable results, and showed how our extensions to deal with small areas allows the de-identification of the whole data set. The LP model described in this study can be used to de-identify geospatial information for areas with small populations with minimal distortion to postal codes. Our LP model can be extended to include other information, such as age and gender.

Clinical prognostic rules for severe acute respiratory syndrome in low- and high-resource settings.

PubMed

Cowling, Benjamin J; Muller, Matthew P; Wong, Irene O L; Ho, Lai-Ming; Lo, Su-Vui; Tsang, Thomas; Lam, Tai Hing; Louie, Marie; Leung, Gabriel M

2006-07-24

An accurate prognostic model for patients with severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) could provide a practical clinical decision aid. We developed and validated prognostic rules for both high- and low-resource settings based on data available at the time of admission. We analyzed data on all 1755 and 291 patients with SARS in Hong Kong (derivation cohort) and Toronto (validation cohort), respectively, using a multivariable logistic scoring method with internal and external validation. Scores were assigned on the basis of patient history in a basic model, and a full model additionally incorporated radiological and laboratory results. The main outcome measure was death. Predictors for mortality in the basic model included older age, male sex, and the presence of comorbid conditions. Additional predictors in the full model included haziness or infiltrates on chest radiography, less than 95% oxygen saturation on room air, high lactate dehydrogenase level, and high neutrophil and low platelet counts. The basic model had an area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of 0.860 in the derivation cohort, which was maintained on external validation with an area under the ROC curve of 0.882. The full model improved discrimination with areas under the ROC curve of 0.877 and 0.892 in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. The model performs well and could be useful in assessing prognosis for patients who are infected with re-emergent SARS.

Space-Time Smoothing of Complex Survey Data: Small Area Estimation for Child Mortality.

PubMed

Mercer, Laina D; Wakefield, Jon; Pantazis, Athena; Lutambi, Angelina M; Masanja, Honorati; Clark, Samuel

2015-12-01

Many people living in low and middle-income countries are not covered by civil registration and vital statistics systems. Consequently, a wide variety of other types of data including many household sample surveys are used to estimate health and population indicators. In this paper we combine data from sample surveys and demographic surveillance systems to produce small area estimates of child mortality through time. Small area estimates are necessary to understand geographical heterogeneity in health indicators when full-coverage vital statistics are not available. For this endeavor spatio-temporal smoothing is beneficial to alleviate problems of data sparsity. The use of conventional hierarchical models requires careful thought since the survey weights may need to be considered to alleviate bias due to non-random sampling and non-response. The application that motivated this work is estimation of child mortality rates in five-year time intervals in regions of Tanzania. Data come from Demographic and Health Surveys conducted over the period 1991-2010 and two demographic surveillance system sites. We derive a variance estimator of under five years child mortality that accounts for the complex survey weighting. For our application, the hierarchical models we consider include random effects for area, time and survey and we compare models using a variety of measures including the conditional predictive ordinate (CPO). The method we propose is implemented via the fast and accurate integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA).

Instantons and entanglement entropy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhattacharyya, Arpan; Hung, Ling-Yan; Melby-Thompson, Charles M.

2017-10-01

We would like to put the area law — believed to be obeyed by entanglement entropies in the ground state of a local field theory — to scrutiny in the presence of nonperturbative effects. We study instanton corrections to entanglement entropy in various models whose instanton contributions are well understood, including U(1) gauge theory in 2+1 dimensions and false vacuum decay in ϕ 4 theory, and we demonstrate that the area law is indeed obeyed in these models. We also perform numerical computations for toy wavefunctions mimicking the theta vacuum of the (1+1)-dimensional Schwinger model. Our results indicate that such superpositions exhibit no more violation of the area law than the logarithmic behavior of a single Fermi surface.

A GIS-based hillslope erosion and sediment delivery model and its application in the Cerro Grande burn area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, Cathy J.; Carey, J. William; Beeson, Peter C.; Gard, Marvin O.; Lane, Leonard J.

2001-10-01

An Erratum has been published for this article in Hydrological Processes 16(5) 2002, 1130-1130.A profile-based, analytical hillslope erosion model (HEM) is integrated into a geographical information system (GIS) framework to provide a tool to assess the impact of the Cerro Grande fire on erosion and sediment delivery to the many streams draining the burn area. The model, HEM-GIS, calculates rill and interrill erosion, transport and deposition along digital flow-pathways generated with GIS software. This new erosion and sediment yield technology accounts for complex terrain attributes and their impact on the connectivity of sediment transport pathways from source areas to streams. GIS digital spatial data, including elevation, vegetation cover, burn severity and soil type, are used as input to the model. Output includes spatially distributed predictions of total event-based sediment yield (tonnes or kilograms per square metre). Here the model is applied across an 800 km2 region of the Pajarito Plateau watershed to assess the sedimentation risks associated with a 100 year design rain event. Although unvalidated for the design storm, the model predicts that the fire may cause runoff to increase by three to six times, and sediment yield to increase by more than an order of magnitude. Published in 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Spatial modeling of infrastructure resilience to the natural disasters using baseline resilience indicators for communities (BRIC) - Case study: 5 districts/cities of Bandung Basin area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nafishoh, Qoriatun; Riqqi, Akhmad; Meilano, Irwan

2017-07-01

The Bandung Basin area has highly susceptible to the natural disasters. Therefore, resilience measurement is useful to find out the capacity of an area in the facing of a natural disaster. Natural disaster resilience can be measured using BRIC (Baseline Resilience Indicators for Communities) model. This model comprises several indicators; includes social, economic, community, institution, infrastructure, and the environment. This research tries to measure resilience to the natural disasters with still focusing on infrastructure resilience measurement by spatial modeling and analyzed the dominant driving factor that contributes to this resilience trend. We generated a spatial modeling by applying a spatial analysis to the infrastructure objects. The infrastructure objects consist of the road, school, and health facilities. Those objects will be given some radius levels that indicate the resilience level by using buffer processing. An area closest to those objects will have high resilience and contrarily. Our result showed that almost all city areas (Bandung and Cimahi City) have high resilience because they have many infrastructure objects. But contrarily with the district areas which are still contained many patterns of low and moderate resilience level. The dominant driving factor of infrastructure resilience in this research area is a road. The areas which are closest to the road have high resilience and farther away from the road will have low resilience.

Modeling the October 2005 lahars at Panabaj (Guatemala)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Charbonnier, S. J.; Connor, C. B.; Connor, L. J.; Sheridan, M. F.; Oliva Hernández, J. P.; Richardson, J. A.

2018-01-01

An extreme rainfall event in October of 2005 triggered two deadly lahars on the flanks of Tolimán volcano (Guatemala) that caused many fatalities in the village of Panabaj. We mapped the deposits of these lahars, then developed computer simulations of the lahars using the geologic data and compared simulated area inundated by the flows to mapped area inundated. Computer simulation of the two lahars was dramatically improved after calibration with geological data. Specifically, detailed field measurements of flow inundation area, flow thickness, flow direction, and velocity estimates, collected after lahar emplacement, were used to calibrate the rheological input parameters for the models, including deposit volume, yield strength, sediment and water concentrations, and Manning roughness coefficients. Simulations of the two lahars, with volumes of 240,200 ± 55,400 and 126,000 ± 29,000 m3, using the FLO-2D computer program produced models of lahar runout within 3% of measured runouts and produced reasonable estimates of flow thickness and velocity along the lengths of the simulated flows. We compare areas inundated using the Jaccard fit, model sensitivity, and model precision metrics, all related to Bayes' theorem. These metrics show that false negatives (areas inundated by the observed lahar where not simulated) and false positives (areas not inundated by the observed lahar where inundation was simulated) are reduced using a model calibrated by rheology. The metrics offer a procedure for tuning model performance that will enhance model accuracy and make numerical models a more robust tool for natural hazard reduction.

Current models broadly neglect specific needs of biodiversity conservation in protected areas under climate change

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Protected areas are the most common and important instrument for the conservation of biological diversity and are called for under the United Nations' Convention on Biological Diversity. Growing human population densities, intensified land-use, invasive species and increasing habitat fragmentation threaten ecosystems worldwide and protected areas are often the only refuge for endangered species. Climate change is posing an additional threat that may also impact ecosystems currently under protection. Therefore, it is of crucial importance to include the potential impact of climate change when designing future nature conservation strategies and implementing protected area management. This approach would go beyond reactive crisis management and, by necessity, would include anticipatory risk assessments. One avenue for doing so is being provided by simulation models that take advantage of the increase in computing capacity and performance that has occurred over the last two decades. Here we review the literature to determine the state-of-the-art in modeling terrestrial protected areas under climate change, with the aim of evaluating and detecting trends and gaps in the current approaches being employed, as well as to provide a useful overview and guidelines for future research. Results Most studies apply statistical, bioclimatic envelope models and focus primarily on plant species as compared to other taxa. Very few studies utilize a mechanistic, process-based approach and none examine biotic interactions like predation and competition. Important factors like land-use, habitat fragmentation, invasion and dispersal are rarely incorporated, restricting the informative value of the resulting predictions considerably. Conclusion The general impression that emerges is that biodiversity conservation in protected areas could benefit from the application of modern modeling approaches to a greater extent than is currently reflected in the scientific literature. It is particularly true that existing models have been underutilized in testing different management options under climate change. Based on these findings we suggest a strategic framework for more effectively incorporating the impact of climate change in models exploring the effectiveness of protected areas. PMID:21539736

Maritime Aerosol Network as a Component of AERONET - First Results and Comparison with Global Aerosol Models and Satellite Retrievals

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smirnov, A.; Holben, B. N.; Giles, D. M.; Slutsker, I.; O'Neill, N. T.; Eck, T. F.; Macke, A.; Croot, P.; Courcoux, Y.; Sakerin, S. M.;

Maritime Aerosol Network as a component of AERONET - first results and comparison with global aerosol models and satellite retrievals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smirnov, A.; Holben, B. N.; Giles, D. M.; Slutsker, I.; O'Neill, N. T.; Eck, T. F.; Macke, A.; Croot, P.; Courcoux, Y.; Sakerin, S. M.; Smyth, T. J.; Zielinski, T.; Zibordi, G.; Goes, J. I.; Harvey, M. J.; Quinn, P. K.; Nelson, N. B.; Radionov, V. F.; Duarte, C. M.; Losno, R.; Sciare, J.; Voss, K. J.; Kinne, S.; Nalli, N. R.; Joseph, E.; Krishna Moorthy, K.; Covert, D. S.; Gulev, S. K.; Milinevsky, G.; Larouche, P.; Belanger, S.; Horne, E.; Chin, M.; Remer, L. A.; Kahn, R. A.; Reid, J. S.; Schulz, M.; Heald, C. L.; Zhang, J.; Lapina, K.; Kleidman, R. G.; Griesfeller, J.; Gaitley, B. J.; Tan, Q.; Diehl, T. L.

2011-01-01

The Maritime Aerosol Network (MAN) has been collecting data over the oceans since November 2006. Over 80 cruises were completed through early 2010 with deployments continuing. Measurements areas included various parts of the Atlantic Ocean, the Northern and Southern Pacific Ocean, the South Indian Ocean, the Southern Ocean, the Arctic Ocean and inland seas. MAN deploys Microtops hand-held sunphotometers and utilizes a calibration procedure and data processing traceable to AERONET. Data collection included areas that previously had no aerosol optical depth (AOD) coverage at all, particularly vast areas of the Southern Ocean. The MAN data archive provides a valuable resource for aerosol studies in maritime environments. In the current paper we present results of AOD measurements over the oceans, and make a comparison with satellite AOD retrievals and model simulations.

Maritime aerosol network as a component of AERONET - first results and comparison with global aerosol models and satellite retrievals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smirnov, A.; Holben, B. N.; Giles, D. M.; Slutsker, I.; O'Neill, N. T.; Eck, T. F.; Macke, A.; Croot, P.; Courcoux, Y.; Sakerin, S. M.; Smyth, T. J.; Zielinski, T.; Zibordi, G.; Goes, J. I.; Harvey, M. J.; Quinn, P. K.; Nelson, N. B.; Radionov, V. F.; Duarte, C. M.; Losno, R.; Sciare, J.; Voss, K. J.; Kinne, S.; Nalli, N. R.; Joseph, E.; Krishna Moorthy, K.; Covert, D. S.; Gulev, S. K.; Milinevsky, G.; Larouche, P.; Belanger, S.; Horne, E.; Chin, M.; Remer, L. A.; Kahn, R. A.; Reid, J. S.; Schulz, M.; Heald, C. L.; Zhang, J.; Lapina, K.; Kleidman, R. G.; Griesfeller, J.; Gaitley, B. J.; Tan, Q.; Diehl, T. L.

2011-03-01

The Maritime Aerosol Network (MAN) has been collecting data over the oceans since November 2006. Over 80 cruises were completed through early 2010 with deployments continuing. Measurement areas included various parts of the Atlantic Ocean, the Northern and Southern Pacific Ocean, the South Indian Ocean, the Southern Ocean, the Arctic Ocean and inland seas. MAN deploys Microtops hand-held sunphotometers and utilizes a calibration procedure and data processing traceable to AERONET. Data collection included areas that previously had no aerosol optical depth (AOD) coverage at all, particularly vast areas of the Southern Ocean. The MAN data archive provides a valuable resource for aerosol studies in maritime environments. In the current paper we present results of AOD measurements over the oceans, and make a comparison with satellite AOD retrievals and model simulations.

Effects of Instructional Design with Mental Model Analysis on Learning.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hong, Eunsook

This paper presents a model for systematic instructional design that includes mental model analysis together with the procedures used in developing computer-based instructional materials in the area of statistical hypothesis testing. The instructional design model is based on the premise that the objective for learning is to achieve expert-like…

Summary of hydrogeology and simulation of ground-water flow and land-surface subsidence in the northern part of the Gulf Coast aquifer system, Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kasmarek, Mark C.; Robinson, James L.

2004-01-01

The northern part of the Gulf Coast aquifer system in Texas, which includes the Chicot, Evangeline, and Jasper aquifers, supplies most of the water used for industrial, municipal, agricultural, and commercial purposes for an approximately 25,000- square-mile (mi2) area that includes the Beaumont and Houston metropolitan areas. The area has an abundant amount of potable ground water, but withdrawals of large quantities of ground water have resulted in potentiometric-surface declines in the Chicot, Evangeline, and Jasper aquifers and land-surface subsidence from depressurization and compaction of clay layers interbedded in the aquifer sediments. This fact sheet summarizes a study done in cooperation with the Texas Water Development Board (TWDB) and the Harris-Galveston Coastal Subsidence District (HGCSD) as a part of the TWDB Ground-Water Availability Modeling (or Model) (GAM) program. The study was designed to develop and test a ground-water-flow model of the northern part of the Gulf Coast aquifer system in the GAM area (fig. 1) that waterresource managers can use as a tool to address future groundwater- availability issues.

Development of Predictive Wake Vortex Transport Model for Terminal Area Wake Vortex Avoidance

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1976-05-01

The wake vortex transport program has been expanded to include viscous effects and the influence of initial roll-up, atmospheric turbulence, and wind shear on the persistence and motion of wake vortices in terminal areas. Analysis of wake characteris...

Review of 1990 Mobile-Source Emissions Modeling Procedure for the Dallas-Fort Worth Nonattainment Area

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1999-08-01

The Dallas-Fort Worth (D-FW) metropolitan area in Texas includes all of Collin, Dallas, Denton, Rockwell, and Tarrant Counties and portions of Ellis, Johnson, Kaufman, and Parker Counties. The North Central Texas Council of Governments (NCTCOG), the ...

Process-Based Development of Competence Models to Computer Science Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zendler, Andreas; Seitz, Cornelia; Klaudt, Dieter

2016-01-01

A process model ("cpm.4.CSE") is introduced that allows the development of competence models in computer science education related to curricular requirements. It includes eight subprocesses: (a) determine competence concept, (b) determine competence areas, (c) identify computer science concepts, (d) assign competence dimensions to…

Trust Discovery in Online Communities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Piorkowski, John

2014-01-01

This research aims to discover interpersonal trust in online communities. Two novel trust models are built to explain interpersonal trust in online communities drawing theories and models from multiple relevant areas, including organizational trust models, trust in virtual settings, speech act theory, identity theory, and common bond theory. In…

Estimating regional plant biodiversity with GIS modelling

Treesearch

Louis R. Iverson; Anantha M. Prasad; Anantha M. Prasad

1998-01-01

We analyzed a statewide species database together with a county-level geographic information system to build a model based on well-surveyed areas to estimate species richness in less surveyed counties. The model involved GIS (Arc/Info) and statistics (S-PLUS), including spatial statistics (S+SpatialStats).

CO{sub 2} Laser Ablation Propulsion Area Scaling With Polyoxymethylene Propellant

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sinko, John E.; Ichihashi, Katsuhiro; Ogita, Naoya

The topic of area scaling is of great importance in the laser propulsion field, including applications to removal of space debris and to selection of size ranges for laser propulsion craft in air or vacuum conditions. To address this issue experimentally, a CO{sub 2} laser operating at up to 10 J was used to irradiate targets. Experiments were conducted in air and vacuum conditions over a range of areas from about 0.05-5 cm{sup 2} to ablate flat polyoxymethylene targets at several fluences. Theoretical effects affecting area scaling, such as rarefaction waves, thermal diffusion, and diffraction, are discussed in terms ofmore » the experimental results. Surface profilometry was used to characterize the ablation samples. A CFD model is used to facilitate analysis, and key results are compared between experimental and model considerations. The dependence of key laser propulsion parameters, including the momentum coupling coefficient and specific impulse, are calculated based on experimental data, and results are compared to existing literature data.« less

Conceptual and numerical models of groundwater flow in the Ogallala and Arikaree aquifers, Pine Ridge Indian Reservation area, South Dakota, water years 1980-2009

USGS Publications Warehouse

Davis, Kyle W.; Putnam, Larry D.; LaBelle, Anneka R.

2015-01-01

The numerical model is a tool that could be used to better understand the flow system of the Ogallala and Arikaree aquifers, to approximate hydraulic heads in the aquifer, and to estimate discharge to rivers, springs, and seeps in the Pine Ridge Reservation area in Bennett, Jackson, and Shannon Counties. The model also is useful to help assess the response of the aquifer to additional stress, including potential increased well withdrawals and potential drought conditions.

Gas Hydrate Petroleum System Modeling in western Nankai Trough Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanaka, M.; Aung, T. T.; Fujii, T.; Wada, N.; Komatsu, Y.

2017-12-01

Since 2003, we have been conducting Gas Hydrate (GH) petroleum system models covering the eastern Nankai Trough, Japan, and results of resource potential from regional model shows good match with the value depicted from seismic and log data. In this year, we have applied this method to explore GH potential in study area. In our study area, GH prospects have been identified with aid of bottom simulating reflector (BSR) and presence of high velocity anomalies above the BSR interpreted based on 3D migration seismic and high density velocity cubes. In order to understand the pathway of biogenic methane from source to GH prospects 1D-2D-3D GH petroleum system models are built and investigated. This study comprises lower Miocene to Pleistocene, deep to shallow marine sedimentary successions of Pliocene and Pleistocene layers overlain the basement. The BSR were interpreted in Pliocene and Pleistocene layers. Based on 6 interpreted sequence boundaries from 3D migration seismic and velocity data, construction of a depth 3D framework model is made and distributed by a conceptual submarine fan depositional facies model derived from seismic facies analysis and referring existing geological report. 1D models are created to analyze lithology sensitivity to temperature and vitrinite data from an exploratory well drilled in the vicinity of study area. The PSM parameters are applied in 2D and 3D modeling and simulation. Existing report of the explanatory well reveals that thermogenic origin are considered to exist. For this reason, simulation scenarios including source formations for both biogenic and thermogenic reaction models are also investigated. Simulation results reveal lower boundary of GH saturation zone at pseudo wells has been simulated with sensitivity of a few tens of meters in comparing with interpreted BSR. From sensitivity analysis, simulated temperature was controlled by different peak generation temperature models and geochemical parameters. Progressive folding and updipping layers including paleostructure can effectively assist biogenic gas migration to upward. Biogenic and Thermogenic mixing model shows that kitchen center only has a potential for generating thermogenic hydrocarbon. Our Prospect based on seismic interpretation is consistent with high GH saturation area based on 3D modeling results.

Spatial surplus production modeling of Atlantic tunas and billfish.

PubMed

Carruthers, Thomas R; McAllister, Murdoch K; Taylor, Nathan G

2011-10-01

We formulate and simulation-test a spatial surplus production model that provides a basis with which to undertake multispecies, multi-area, stock assessment. Movement between areas is parameterized using a simple gravity model that includes a "residency" parameter that determines the degree of stock mixing among areas. The model is deliberately simple in order to (1) accommodate nontarget species that typically have fewer available data and (2) minimize computational demand to enable simulation evaluation of spatial management strategies. Using this model, we demonstrate that careful consideration of spatial catch and effort data can provide the basis for simple yet reliable spatial stock assessments. If simple spatial dynamics can be assumed, tagging data are not required to reliably estimate spatial distribution and movement. When applied to eight stocks of Atlantic tuna and billfish, the model tracks regional catch data relatively well by approximating local depletions and exchange among high-abundance areas. We use these results to investigate and discuss the implications of using spatially aggregated stock assessment for fisheries in which the distribution of both the population and fishing vary over time.

Modelling the emissions from ships in ports and their impact on air quality in the metropolitan area of Hamburg

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramacher, Martin; Karl, Matthias; Aulinger, Armin; Bieser, Johannes; Matthias, Volker; Quante, Markus

2016-04-01

Exhaust emissions from shipping contribute significantly to the anthropogenic burden of air pollutants such as nitrogen oxides (NOX) and particulate matter (PM). Ships emit not only when sailing on open sea, but also when approaching harbors, during port manoeuvers and at berth to produce electricity and heat for the ship's operations. This affects the population of harbor cities because long-term exposure to PM and NOX has significant effects on human health. The European Union has therefore has set air quality standards for air pollutants. Many port cities have problems meeting these standards. The port of Hamburg with around 10.000 ship calls per year is Germany's largest seaport and Europe's second largest container port. Air quality standard reporting in Hamburg has revealed problems in meeting limits for NO2 and PM10. The amount and contribution of port related ship emissions (38% for NOx and 17% for PM10) to the overall emissions in the metropolitan area in 2005 [BSU Hamburg (2012): Luftreinhalteplan für Hamburg. 1. Fortschreibung 2012] has been modelled with a bottom up approach by using statistical data of ship activities in the harbor, technical vessel information and specific emission algorithms [GAUSS (2008): Quantifizierung von gasförmigen Emissionen durch Maschinenanlagen der Seeschiffart an der deutschen Küste]. However, knowledge about the spatial distribution of the harbor ship emissions over the city area is crucial when it comes to air quality standards and policy decisions to protect human health. Hence, this model study examines the spatial distribution of harbor ship emissions (NOX, PM10) and their deposition in the Hamburg metropolitan area. The transport and chemical transformation of atmospheric pollutants is calculated with the well-established chemistry transport model TAPM (The Air Pollution Model). TAPM is a three-dimensional coupled prognostic meteorological and air pollution model with a condensed chemistry scheme including photochemistry. The model was applied to the Hamburg metropolitan area with a setup of 30 x 30 grid cells of 1 km² each and 30 vertical grid levels from 10 to 8,000 m, for a time period of one year. Emission inventories for traffic, industry, households and ships in 2013 were generated. To investigate the dispersion of ship emissions to air pollution two different model runs for 2013 were performed; one model run including land-based emissions and the ship emissions and a model run just including the land-based emissions. The modelling results were evaluated with air quality data from the monitoring station network of Hamburg (luft.hamburg.de). The results are presented in form of spatial distribution maps for the Hamburg metropolitan area highlighting the pollutants (PM and NOX) originating from harbor residential ships.

Multivariate time series modeling of short-term system scale irrigation demand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perera, Kushan C.; Western, Andrew W.; George, Biju; Nawarathna, Bandara

2015-12-01

Travel time limits the ability of irrigation system operators to react to short-term irrigation demand fluctuations that result from variations in weather, including very hot periods and rainfall events, as well as the various other pressures and opportunities that farmers face. Short-term system-wide irrigation demand forecasts can assist in system operation. Here we developed a multivariate time series (ARMAX) model to forecast irrigation demands with respect to aggregated service points flows (IDCGi, ASP) and off take regulator flows (IDCGi, OTR) based across 5 command areas, which included area covered under four irrigation channels and the study area. These command area specific ARMAX models forecast 1-5 days ahead daily IDCGi, ASP and IDCGi, OTR using the real time flow data recorded at the service points and the uppermost regulators and observed meteorological data collected from automatic weather stations. The model efficiency and the predictive performance were quantified using the root mean squared error (RMSE), Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient (NSE), anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) and mean square skill score (MSSS). During the evaluation period, NSE for IDCGi, ASP and IDCGi, OTR across 5 command areas were ranged 0.98-0.78. These models were capable of generating skillful forecasts (MSSS ⩾ 0.5 and ACC ⩾ 0.6) of IDCGi, ASP and IDCGi, OTR for all 5 lead days and IDCGi, ASP and IDCGi, OTR forecasts were better than using the long term monthly mean irrigation demand. Overall these predictive performance from the ARMAX time series models were higher than almost all the previous studies we are aware. Further, IDCGi, ASP and IDCGi, OTR forecasts have improved the operators' ability to react for near future irrigation demand fluctuations as the developed ARMAX time series models were self-adaptive to reflect the short-term changes in the irrigation demand with respect to various pressures and opportunities that farmers' face, such as changing water policy, continued development of water markets, drought and changing technology.

Stratigraphy, structure, and lithofacies relationships of Devonian through Permian sedimentary rocks: Paradox Basin and adjacent areas - southeastern Utah. Technical report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McCleary, J.; Rogers, T.; Ely, R.

Geophysical well log analysis, literature review, and field work were conducted to develop isopach, structure contour, outcrop, and facies maps and cross sections for the Devonian through Permian strata of a 14,586-km/sup 2/ (5632-square-mile) area in southeastern Utah. The study area includes part of the Paradox Basin, the salt deposits of which are of interest in siting studies for a nuclear waste repository. For this reason hydrologic models of this area are needed. This study, part of which included the development of a three-dimensional stratigraphic computer model utilizing Geographic Information System software, can serve as a base for hydrologic ormore » other models for this area. Within and adjacent to the study area, 730 wells were screened to select the 191 wells analyzed for the study. It was found that the Elbert through Molas formations did not exhibit noticeable facies changes within the study area. The Pinkerton Trail Formation exhibits moderate changes: anhydrite and shale become somewhat more abundant toward the northeast. Facies changes in the Paradox Formation are more dramatic. Thick saline facies deposits are present in the northeast, grading to thinner anhydrite and then to carbonate facies in the south and west. The lithology of the Honaker Trail Formation appears to be fairly uniform throughout the area. Facies changes in the Cutler Group are numerous and sometimes dramatic, and generally correspond to the named formations of the group. Other factors that could affect groundwater flow, such as stratigraphic cover of fine-grained rocks, area of formation outcrops, and fracturing and faulting are discussed and delineated on maps.« less

Observation and simulation of net primary productivity in Qilian Mountain, western China.

PubMed

Zhou, Y; Zhu, Q; Chen, J M; Wang, Y Q; Liu, J; Sun, R; Tang, S

2007-11-01

We modeled net primary productivity (NPP) at high spatial resolution using an advanced spaceborne thermal emission and reflection radiometer (ASTER) image of a Qilian Mountain study area using the boreal ecosystem productivity simulator (BEPS). Two key driving variables of the model, leaf area index (LAI) and land cover type, were derived from ASTER and moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) data. Other spatially explicit inputs included daily meteorological data (radiation, precipitation, temperature, humidity), available soil water holding capacity (AWC), and forest biomass. NPP was estimated for coniferous forests and other land cover types in the study area. The result showed that NPP of coniferous forests in the study area was about 4.4 tCha(-1)y(-1). The correlation coefficient between the modeled NPP and ground measurements was 0.84, with a mean relative error of about 13.9%.

A prediction and damage assessment model for snowmelt flood events in middle and high latitudes Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qiao, C.; Huang, Q.; Chen, T.; Zhang, X.

2017-12-01

In the context of global warming, the snowmelt flood events in the mountainous area of the middle and high latitudes are increasingly frequent and create severe casualties and property damages. Carrying out the prediction and risk assessment of the snowmelt flood is of great importance in the water resources management, the flood warning and prevention. Based on the remote sensing and GIS techniques, the relationships of the variables influencing the snowmelt flood such as the snow area, the snow depth, the air temperature, the precipitation, the land topography and land covers are analyzed and a prediction and damage assessment model for snowmelt floods is developed. This model analyzes and predicts the flood submerging area, flood depth, flood grade, and the damages of different underlying surfaces in the study area in a given time period based on the estimation of snowmelt amount, the snowmelt runoff, the direction and velocity of the flood. Then it was used to predict a snowmelt flood event in the Ertis River Basin in northern Xinjiang, China, during March and June, 2005 and to assess its damages including the damages of roads, transmission lines, settlements caused by the floods and the possible landslides using the hydrological and meteorological data, snow parameter data, DEM data and land use data. A comparison was made between the prediction results from this model and observation data including the flood measurement and its disaster loss data, which suggests that this model performs well in predicting the strength and impact area of snowmelt flood and its damage assessment. This model will be helpful for the prediction and damage assessment of snowmelt flood events in the mountainous area in the middle and high latitudes in spring, which has great social and economic significance because it provides a relatively reliable method for snowmelt flood prediction and reduces the possible damages caused by snowmelt floods.

Time-Perception Network and Default Mode Network Are Associated with Temporal Prediction in a Periodic Motion Task

PubMed Central

Carvalho, Fabiana M.; Chaim, Khallil T.; Sanchez, Tiago A.; de Araujo, Draulio B.

2016-01-01

The updating of prospective internal models is necessary to accurately predict future observations. Uncertainty-driven internal model updating has been studied using a variety of perceptual paradigms, and have revealed engagement of frontal and parietal areas. In a distinct literature, studies on temporal expectations have also characterized a time-perception network, which relies on temporal orienting of attention. However, the updating of prospective internal models is highly dependent on temporal attention, since temporal attention must be reoriented according to the current environmental demands. In this study, we used functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to evaluate to what extend the continuous manipulation of temporal prediction would recruit update-related areas and the time-perception network areas. We developed an exogenous temporal task that combines rhythm cueing and time-to-contact principles to generate implicit temporal expectation. Two patterns of motion were created: periodic (simple harmonic oscillation) and non-periodic (harmonic oscillation with variable acceleration). We found that non-periodic motion engaged the exogenous temporal orienting network, which includes the ventral premotor and inferior parietal cortices, and the cerebellum, as well as the presupplementary motor area, which has previously been implicated in internal model updating, and the motion-sensitive area MT+. Interestingly, we found a right-hemisphere preponderance suggesting the engagement of explicit timing mechanisms. We also show that the periodic motion condition, when compared to the non-periodic motion, activated a particular subset of the default-mode network (DMN) midline areas, including the left dorsomedial prefrontal cortex (DMPFC), anterior cingulate cortex (ACC), and bilateral posterior cingulate cortex/precuneus (PCC/PC). It suggests that the DMN plays a role in processing contextually expected information and supports recent evidence that the DMN may reflect the validation of prospective internal models and predictive control. Taken together, our findings suggest that continuous manipulation of temporal predictions engages representations of temporal prediction as well as task-independent updating of internal models. PMID:27313526

Habitat prioritization across large landscapes, multiple seasons, and novel areas: an example using greater sage-grouse in Wyoming

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fedy, Bradley C.; Doherty, Kevin E.; Aldridge, Cameron L.; O'Donnell, Michael S.; Beck, Jeffrey L.; Bedrosian, Bryan; Gummer, David; Holloran, Matthew J.; Johnson, Gregory D.; Kaczor, Nicholas W.; Kirol, Christopher P.; Mandich, Cheryl A.; Marshall, David; McKee, Gwyn; Olson, Chad; Pratt, Aaron C.; Swanson, Christopher C.; Walker, Brett L.

2014-01-01

Animal habitat selection is an important and expansive area of research in ecology. In particular, the study of habitat selection is critical in habitat prioritization efforts for species of conservation concern. Landscape planning for species is happening at ever-increasing extents because of the appreciation for the role of landscape-scale patterns in species persistence coupled to improved datasets for species and habitats, and the expanding and intensifying footprint of human land uses on the landscape. We present a large-scale collaborative effort to develop habitat selection models across large landscapes and multiple seasons for prioritizing habitat for a species of conservation concern. Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus, hereafter sage-grouse) occur in western semi-arid landscapes in North America. Range-wide population declines of this species have been documented, and it is currently considered as “warranted but precluded” from listing under the United States Endangered Species Act. Wyoming is predicted to remain a stronghold for sage-grouse populations and contains approximately 37% of remaining birds. We compiled location data from 14 unique radiotelemetry studies (data collected 1994–2010) and habitat data from high-quality, biologically relevant, geographic information system (GIS) layers across Wyoming. We developed habitat selection models for greater sage-grouse across Wyoming for 3 distinct life stages: 1) nesting, 2) summer, and 3) winter. We developed patch and landscape models across 4 extents, producing statewide and regional (southwest, central, northeast) models for Wyoming. Habitat selection varied among regions and seasons, yet preferred habitat attributes generally matched the extensive literature on sage-grouse seasonal habitat requirements. Across seasons and regions, birds preferred areas with greater percentage sagebrush cover and avoided paved roads, agriculture, and forested areas. Birds consistently preferred areas with higher precipitation in the summer and avoided rugged terrain in the winter. Selection for sagebrush cover varied regionally with stronger selection in the Northeast region, likely because of limited availability, whereas avoidance of paved roads was fairly consistent across regions. We chose resource selection function (RSF) thresholds for each model set (seasonal × regional combination) that delineated important seasonal habitats for sage-grouse. Each model set showed good validation and discriminatory capabilities within study-site boundaries. We applied the nesting-season models to a novel area not included in model development. The percentage of independent nest locations that fell directly within identified important habitat was not overly impressive in the novel area (49%); however, including a 500-m buffer around important habitat captured 98% of independent nest locations within the novel area. We also used leks and associated peak male counts as a proxy for nesting habitat outside of the study sites used to develop the models. A 1.5-km buffer around the important nesting habitat boundaries included 77% of males counted at leks in Wyoming outside of the study sites. Data were not available to quantitatively test the performance of the summer and winter models outside our study sites. The collection of models presented here represents large-scale resource-management planning tools that are a significant advancement to previous tools in terms of spatial and temporal resolution.

Ranking contributing areas of salt and selenium in the Lower Gunnison River Basin, Colorado, using multiple linear regression models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Linard, Joshua I.

2013-01-01

Mitigating the effects of salt and selenium on water quality in the Grand Valley and lower Gunnison River Basin in western Colorado is a major concern for land managers. Previous modeling indicated means to improve the models by including more detailed geospatial data and a more rigorous method for developing the models. After evaluating all possible combinations of geospatial variables, four multiple linear regression models resulted that could estimate irrigation-season salt yield, nonirrigation-season salt yield, irrigation-season selenium yield, and nonirrigation-season selenium yield. The adjusted r-squared and the residual standard error (in units of log-transformed yield) of the models were, respectively, 0.87 and 2.03 for the irrigation-season salt model, 0.90 and 1.25 for the nonirrigation-season salt model, 0.85 and 2.94 for the irrigation-season selenium model, and 0.93 and 1.75 for the nonirrigation-season selenium model. The four models were used to estimate yields and loads from contributing areas corresponding to 12-digit hydrologic unit codes in the lower Gunnison River Basin study area. Each of the 175 contributing areas was ranked according to its estimated mean seasonal yield of salt and selenium.

Modelling MIZ dynamics in a global model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rynders, Stefanie; Aksenov, Yevgeny; Feltham, Daniel; Nurser, George; Naveira Garabato, Alberto

2016-04-01

Exposure of large, previously ice-covered areas of the Arctic Ocean to the wind and surface ocean waves results in the Arctic pack ice cover becoming more fragmented and mobile, with large regions of ice cover evolving into the Marginal Ice Zone (MIZ). The need for better climate predictions, along with growing economic activity in the Polar Oceans, necessitates climate and forecasting models that can simulate fragmented sea ice with a greater fidelity. Current models are not fully fit for the purpose, since they neither model surface ocean waves in the MIZ, nor account for the effect of floe fragmentation on drag, nor include sea ice rheology that represents both the now thinner pack ice and MIZ ice dynamics. All these processes affect the momentum transfer to the ocean. We present initial results from a global ocean model NEMO (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean) coupled to the Los Alamos sea ice model CICE. The model setup implements a novel rheological formulation for sea ice dynamics, accounting for ice floe collisions, thus offering a seamless framework for pack ice and MIZ simulations. The effect of surface waves on ice motion is included through wave pressure and the turbulent kinetic energy of ice floes. In the multidecadal model integrations we examine MIZ and basin scale sea ice and oceanic responses to the changes in ice dynamics. We analyse model sensitivities and attribute them to key sea ice and ocean dynamical mechanisms. The results suggest that the effect of the new ice rheology is confined to the MIZ. However with the current increase in summer MIZ area, which is projected to continue and may become the dominant type of sea ice in the Arctic, we argue that the effects of the combined sea ice rheology will be noticeable in large areas of the Arctic Ocean, affecting sea ice and ocean. With this study we assert that to make more accurate sea ice predictions in the changing Arctic, models need to include MIZ dynamics and physics.

The potential distribution of the Russian wheat aphid (Diuraphis noxia): an updated distribution model including irrigation improves model fit for predicting potential spread.

PubMed

Avila, G A; Davidson, M; van Helden, M; Fagan, L

2018-04-18

Diuraphis noxia (Kurdjumov), Russian wheat aphid, is one of the world's most invasive and economically important agricultural pests of wheat and barley. In May 2016, it was found for the first time in Australia, with further sampling confirming it was widespread throughout south-eastern regions. Russian wheat aphid is not yet present in New Zealand. The impacts of this pest if it establishes in New Zealand, could result in serious control problems in wheat- and barley-growing regions. To evaluate whether D. noxia could establish populations in New Zealand we used the climate modelling software CLIMEX to locate where potential viable populations might occur. We re-parameterised the existing CLIMEX model by Hughes and Maywald (1990) by improving the model fit using currently known distribution records of D. noxia, and we also considered the role of irrigation into the potential spread of this invasive insect. The updated model now fits the current known distribution better than the previous Hughes and Maywald CLIMEX model, particularly in temperate and Mediterranean areas in Australia and Europe; and in more semi-arid areas in north-western China and Middle Eastern countries. Our model also highlights new climatically suitable areas for the establishment of D. noxia, not previously reported, including parts of France, the UK and New Zealand. Our results suggest that, when suitable host plants are present, Russian wheat aphid could establish in these regions. The new CLIMEX projections in the present study are useful tools to inform risk assessments and target surveillance and monitoring efforts for identifying susceptible areas to invasion by Russian wheat aphid.

Including irrigation in niche modelling of the invasive wasp Vespula germanica (Fabricius) improves model fit to predict potential for further spread

PubMed Central

Kriticos, Darren J.; Veldtman, Ruan

2017-01-01

The European wasp, Vespula germanica (Fabricius) (Hymenoptera: Vespidae), is of Palaearctic origin, being native to Europe, northern Africa and Asia, and introduced into North America, Chile, Argentina, Iceland, Ascension Island, South Africa, Australia and New Zealand. Due to its polyphagous nature and scavenging behaviour, V. germanica threatens agriculture and silviculture, and negatively affects biodiversity, while its aggressive nature and venomous sting pose a health risk to humans. In areas with warmer winters and longer summers, queens and workers can survive the winter months, leading to the build-up of large nests during the following season; thereby increasing the risk posed by this species. To prevent or prepare for such unwanted impacts it is important to know where the wasp may be able to establish, either through natural spread or through introduction as a result of human transport. Distribution data from Argentina and Australia, and seasonal phenology data from Argentina were used to determine the potential distribution of V. germanica using CLIMEX modelling. In contrast to previous models, the influence of irrigation on its distribution was also investigated. Under a natural rainfall scenario, the model showed similarities to previous models. When irrigation is applied, dry stress is alleviated, leading to larger areas modelled climatically suitable compared with previous models, which provided a better fit with the actual distribution of the species. The main areas at risk of invasion by V. germanica include western USA, Mexico, small areas in Central America and in the north-western region of South America, eastern Brazil, western Russia, north-western China, Japan, the Mediterranean coastal regions of North Africa, and parts of southern and eastern Africa. PMID:28715452

Hydrologic data and groundwater-flow simulations in the Brown Ditch Watershed, Indiana Dunes National Lakeshore, near Beverly Shores and Town of Pines, Indiana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lampe, David C.

2016-03-15

The results of this study can be used by water-resource managers to understand how surrounding ditches affect water levels in Great Marsh and other inland wetlands and residential areas. The groundwater model developed can be applied to answer questions about how alterations to the drainage system in the area affects water levels in the public and residential areas surrounding Great Marsh. The modeling methods developed in this study provide a template for other studies of groundwater flow and groundwater/surface-water interactions within the shallow surficial aquifer in northern Indiana, and in similar hydrologic settings that include surficial sand aquifers in coastal areas.

Intersection of neighborhood dynamics and socioeconomic status in small-area walkability: the Heart Healthy Hoods project.

PubMed

Gullón, Pedro; Bilal, Usama; Cebrecos, Alba; Badland, Hannah M; Galán, Iñaki; Franco, Manuel

2017-06-06

Previous studies found a complex relationship between area-level socioeconomic status (SES) and walkability. These studies did not include neighborhood dynamics. Our aim was to study the association between area-level SES and walkability in the city of Madrid (Spain) evaluating the potential effect modification of neighborhood dynamics. All census sections of the city of Madrid (n = 2415) were included. Area-level SES was measured using a composite index of 7 indicators in 4 domains (education, wealth, occupation and living conditions). Two neighborhood dynamics factors were computed: gentrification, proxied by change in education levels in the previous 10 years, and neighborhood age, proxied by median year of construction of housing units in the area. Walkability was measured using a composite index of 4 indicators (Residential Density, Population Density, Retail Destinations and Street Connectivity). We modeled the association using linear mixed models with random intercepts. Area-level SES and walkability were inversely and significantly associated. Areas with lower SES showed the highest walkability. This pattern did not hold for areas with an increase in education level, where the association was flat (no decrease in walkability with higher SES). Moreover, the association was attenuated in newly built areas: the association was stronger in areas built before 1975, weaker in areas built between 1975 and 1990 and flat in areas built from 1990 on. Areas with higher neighborhood socioeconomic status had lower walkability in Madrid. This disadvantage in walkability was not present in recently built or gentrified areas.

The Geographic Concentration of Enterprise in Developing Countries

PubMed Central

Felkner, John S.; Townsend, Robert M.

2011-01-01

A nation’s economic geography can have an enormous impact on its development. In Thailand, we show that a high concentration of enterprise in an area predicts high subsequent growth in and around that area. We also find spatially contiguous convergence of enterprise with stagnant areas left behind. Exogenous physiographic conditions are correlated with enterprise location and growth. We fit a structural, micro-founded model of occupation transitions with fine-tuned geographic capabilities to village data and replicate these salient facts. Key elements of the model include costs, credit constraints on occupation choice, and spatially varying expansion of financial service providers. PMID:22844158

Ecological niche modeling for a cultivated plant species: a case study on taro (Colocasia esculenta) in Hawaii.

PubMed

Kodis, Mali'o; Galante, Peter; Sterling, Eleanor J; Blair, Mary E

2018-04-26

Under the threat of ongoing and projected climate change, communities in the Pacific Islands face challenges of adapting culture and lifestyle to accommodate a changing landscape. Few models can effectively predict how biocultural livelihoods might be impacted. Here, we examine how environmental and anthropogenic factors influence an ecological niche model (ENM) for the realized niche of cultivated taro (Colocasia esculenta) in Hawaii. We created and tuned two sets of ENMs: one using only environmental variables, and one using both environmental and cultural characteristics of Hawaii. These models were projected under two different Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) for 2070. Models were selected and evaluated using average omission rate and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). We compared optimal model predictions by comparing the percentage of taro plots predicted present and measured ENM overlap using Schoener's D statistic. The model including only environmental variables consisted of 19 Worldclim bioclimatic variables, in addition to slope, altitude, distance to perennial streams, soil evaporation, and soil moisture. The optimal model with environmental variables plus anthropogenic features also included a road density variable (which we assumed as a proxy for urbanization) and a variable indicating agricultural lands of importance to the state of Hawaii. The model including anthropogenic features performed better than the environment-only model based on omission rate, AUC, and review of spatial projections. The two models also differed in spatial projections for taro under anticipated future climate change. Our results demonstrate how ENMs including anthropogenic features can predict which areas might be best suited to plant cultivated species in the future, and how these areas could change under various climate projections. These predictions might inform biocultural conservation priorities and initiatives. In addition, we discuss the incongruences that arise when traditional ENM theory is applied to species whose distribution has been significantly impacted by human intervention, particularly at a fine scale relevant to biocultural conservation initiatives. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

Three-dimensional model of the hydrostratigraphy and structure of the area in and around the U.S. Army-Camp Stanley Storage Activity Area, northern Bexar County, Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pantea, Michael P.; Blome, Charles D.; Clark, Allan K.

2014-01-01

A three-dimensional model of the Camp Stanley Storage Activity area defines and illustrates the surface and subsurface hydrostratigraphic architecture of the military base and adjacent areas to the south and west using EarthVision software. The Camp Stanley model contains 11 hydrostratigraphic units in descending order: 1 model layer representing the Edwards aquifer; 1 model layer representing the upper Trinity aquifer; 6 model layers representing the informal hydrostratigraphic units that make up the upper part of the middle Trinity aquifer; and 3 model layers representing each, the Bexar, Cow Creek, and the top of the Hammett of the lower part of the middle Trinity aquifer. The Camp Stanley three-dimensional model includes 14 fault structures that generally trend northeast/southwest. The top of Hammett hydrostratigraphic unit was used to propagate and validate all fault structures and to confirm most of the drill-hole data. Differences between modeled and previously mapped surface geology reflect interpretation of fault relations at depth, fault relations to hydrostratigraphic contacts, and surface digital elevation model simplification to fit the scale of the model. In addition, changes based on recently obtained drill-hole data and field reconnaissance done during the construction of the model. The three-dimensional modeling process revealed previously undetected horst and graben structures in the northeastern and southern parts of the study area. This is atypical, as most faults in the area are en echelon that step down southeasterly to the Gulf Coast. The graben structures may increase the potential for controlling or altering local groundwater flow.

Canopy structural complexity predicts forest canopy light absorption at continental scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Atkins, J. W.; Fahey, R. T.; Hardiman, B. S.; Gough, C. M.

2017-12-01

Understanding how the physical structure of forest canopies influence light acquisition is a long-standing area of inquiry fundamental to advancing understanding of many areas of the physical sciences, including the modeling and interpretation of biogeochemical cycles. Conventional measures of forest canopy structure employed in earth system models are often limited to leaf area index (LAI)—a measure of the quantity of leaves in the canopy. However, more novel multi-dimensional measures of canopy structural complexity (CSC) that describe the arrangement of vegetation are now possible because of technological advances, and may improve modeled estimates of canopy light absorption. During 2016 and 2017, we surveyed forests at sites from across the eastern, southern, and midwestern United States using portable canopy LiDAR (PCL). This survey included 14 National Ecological Observation Network (NEON), Long-Term Ecological Research Network (LTER,) Ameriflux, and University affiliated sites. Our findings show that a composite model including CSC parameters and LAI explains 96.8% of the variance in light acquisition, measured as the fraction of photosynthetically absorbed radiation (fPAR) at the continental scale, and improvement of 12% over an LAI only model. Under high light sky conditions, measures of CSC are more strongly coupled with light acquisition than under low light, possibly because light scattering partially decouples CSC from canopy light absorption under low, predominately diffuse light conditions. We conclude that scalable estimates of CSC metrics may improve continent-wide estimates of canopy light absorption and, therefore, carbon uptake, with implications for remote sensing and earth system modeling.

Locally-Adaptive, Spatially-Explicit Projection of U.S. Population for 2030 and 2050

DOE PAGES

McKee, Jacob J.; Rose, Amy N.; Bright, Eddie A.; ...

2015-02-03

Localized adverse events, including natural hazards, epidemiological events, and human conflict, underscore the criticality of quantifying and mapping current population. Moreover, knowing the spatial distribution of future population allows for increased preparation in the event of an emergency. Building on the spatial interpolation technique previously developed for high resolution population distribution data (LandScan Global and LandScan USA), we have constructed an empirically-informed spatial distribution of the projected population of the contiguous U.S. for 2030 and 2050. Whereas most current large-scale, spatially explicit population projections typically rely on a population gravity model to determine areas of future growth, our projection modelmore » departs from these by accounting for multiple components that affect population distribution. Modelled variables, which included land cover, slope, distances to larger cities, and a moving average of current population, were locally adaptive and geographically varying. The resulting weighted surface was used to determine which areas had the greatest likelihood for future population change. Population projections of county level numbers were developed using a modified version of the U.S. Census s projection methodology with the U.S. Census s official projection as the benchmark. Applications of our model include, but are not limited to, suitability modelling, service area planning for governmental agencies, consequence assessment, mitigation planning and implementation, and assessment of spatially vulnerable populations.« less

Locally-Adaptive, Spatially-Explicit Projection of U.S. Population for 2030 and 2050

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McKee, Jacob J.; Rose, Amy N.; Bright, Eddie A.

Localized adverse events, including natural hazards, epidemiological events, and human conflict, underscore the criticality of quantifying and mapping current population. Moreover, knowing the spatial distribution of future population allows for increased preparation in the event of an emergency. Building on the spatial interpolation technique previously developed for high resolution population distribution data (LandScan Global and LandScan USA), we have constructed an empirically-informed spatial distribution of the projected population of the contiguous U.S. for 2030 and 2050. Whereas most current large-scale, spatially explicit population projections typically rely on a population gravity model to determine areas of future growth, our projection modelmore » departs from these by accounting for multiple components that affect population distribution. Modelled variables, which included land cover, slope, distances to larger cities, and a moving average of current population, were locally adaptive and geographically varying. The resulting weighted surface was used to determine which areas had the greatest likelihood for future population change. Population projections of county level numbers were developed using a modified version of the U.S. Census s projection methodology with the U.S. Census s official projection as the benchmark. Applications of our model include, but are not limited to, suitability modelling, service area planning for governmental agencies, consequence assessment, mitigation planning and implementation, and assessment of spatially vulnerable populations.« less

High Resolution Seamless Dom Generation Over CHANG'E-5 Landing Area Using Lroc Nac Images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di, K.; Jia, M.; Xin, X.; Liu, B.; Liu, Z.; Peng, M.; Yue, Z.

2018-04-01

Chang'e-5, China's first sample return lunar mission, will be launched in 2019, and the planned landing area is near Mons Rümker in Oceanus Procellarum. High-resolution and high-precision mapping of the landing area is of great importance for supporting scientific analysis and safe landing. This paper proposes a systematic method for large area seamless digital orthophoto map (DOM) generation, and presents the mapping result of Chang'e-5 landing area using over 700 LROC NAC images. The developed method mainly consists of two stages of data processing: stage 1 includes subarea block adjustment with rational function model (RFM) and seamless subarea DOM generation; stage 2 includes whole area adjustment through registration of the subarea DOMs with thin plate spline model and seamless DOM mosaicking. The resultant seamless DOM coves a large area (20° longitude × 4° latitude) and is tied to the widely used reference DEM - SLDEM2015. As a result, the RMS errors of the tie points are all around half pixel in image space, indicating a high internal precision; the RMS errors of the control points are about one grid cell size of SLDEM2015, indicating that the resultant DOM is tied to SLDEM2015 well.

Teacher Modeling Using Complex Informational Texts

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fisher, Douglas; Frey, Nancy

2015-01-01

Modeling in complex texts requires that teachers analyze the text for factors of qualitative complexity and then design lessons that introduce students to that complexity. In addition, teachers can model the disciplinary nature of content area texts as well as word solving and comprehension strategies. Included is a planning guide for think aloud.

The Effect of Math Modeling on Student's Emerging Understanding

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sokolowski, Andrzej

2015-01-01

This study investigated the effects of applying mathematical modeling on revising students' preconception of the process of optimizing area enclosed by a string of a fixed length. A group of 28 high school pre-calculus students were immersed in modeling activity that included direct measurements, data collecting, and formulating algebraic…

Storm Water Management Model User’s Manual Version 5.1 - manual

EPA Science Inventory

SWMM 5 provides an integrated environment for editing study area input data, running hydrologic, hydraulic and water quality simulations, and viewing the results in a variety of formats. These include color-coded drainage area and conveyance system maps, time series graphs and ta...

Dose Modeling Evaluations and Technical Support Document For the Authorized Limits Request for the DOE-Owned Property Outside the Limited Area, Paducah Gaseous Diffusion Plant Paducah, Kentucky

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Boerner, A. J.; Maldonado, D. G.; Hansen, Tom

2012-09-01

Environmental assessments and remediation activities are being conducted by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) at the Paducah Gaseous Diffusion Plant (PGDP), Paducah, Kentucky. The Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education (ORISE), a DOE prime contractor, was contracted by the DOE Portsmouth/Paducah Project Office (DOE-PPPO) to conduct radiation dose modeling analyses and derive single radionuclide soil guidelines (soil guidelines) in support of the derivation of Authorized Limits (ALs) for 'DOE-Owned Property Outside the Limited Area' ('Property') at the PGDP. The ORISE evaluation specifically included the area identified by DOE restricted area postings (public use access restrictions) and areas licensedmore » by DOE to the West Kentucky Wildlife Management Area (WKWMA). The licensed areas are available without restriction to the general public for a variety of (primarily) recreational uses. Relevant receptors impacting current and reasonably anticipated future use activities were evaluated. In support of soil guideline derivation, a Conceptual Site Model (CSM) was developed. The CSM listed radiation and contamination sources, release mechanisms, transport media, representative exposure pathways from residual radioactivity, and a total of three receptors (under present and future use scenarios). Plausible receptors included a Resident Farmer, Recreational User, and Wildlife Worker. single radionuclide soil guidelines (outputs specified by the software modeling code) were generated for three receptors and thirteen targeted radionuclides. These soil guidelines were based on satisfying the project dose constraints. For comparison, soil guidelines applicable to the basic radiation public dose limit of 100 mrem/yr were generated. Single radionuclide soil guidelines from the most limiting (restrictive) receptor based on a target dose constraint of 25 mrem/yr were then rounded and identified as the derived soil guidelines. An additional evaluation using the derived soil guidelines as inputs into the code was also performed to determine the maximum (peak) dose for all receptors. This report contains the technical basis in support of the DOE?s derivation of ALs for the 'Property.' A complete description of the methodology, including an assessment of the input parameters, model inputs, and results is provided in this report. This report also provides initial recommendations on applying the derived soil guidelines.« less

Modeling natural wetlands: A new global framework built on wetland observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matthews, E.; Romanski, J.; Olefeldt, D.

2015-12-01

Natural wetlands are the world's largest methane (CH4) source, and their distribution and CH4 fluxes are sensitive to interannual and longer-term climate variations. Wetland distributions used in wetland-CH4 models diverge widely, and these geographic differences contribute substantially to large variations in magnitude, seasonality and distribution of modeled methane fluxes. Modeling wetland type and distribution—closely tied to simulating CH4 emissions—is a high priority, particularly for studies of wetlands and CH4 dynamics under past and future climates. Methane-wetland models either prescribe or simulate methane-producing areas (aka wetlands) and both approaches result in predictable over- and under-estimates. 1) Monthly satellite-derived inundation data include flooded areas that are not wetlands (e.g., lakes, reservoirs, and rivers), and do not identify non-flooded wetlands. 2) Models simulating methane-producing areas overwhelmingly rely on modeled soil moisture, systematically over-estimating total global area, with regional over- and under-estimates, while schemes to model soil-moisture typically cannot account for positive water tables (i.e., flooding). Interestingly, while these distinct hydrological approaches to identify wetlands are complementary, merging them does not provide critical data needed to model wetlands for methane studies. We present a new integrated framework for modeling wetlands, and ultimately their methane emissions, that exploits the extensive body of data and information on wetlands. The foundation of the approach is an existing global gridded data set comprising all and only wetlands, including vegetation information. This data set is augmented with data inter alia on climate, inundation dynamics, soil type and soil carbon, permafrost, active-layer depth, growth form, and species composition. We investigate this enhanced wetland data set to identify which variables best explain occurrence and characteristics of observed wetland ecosystems. The novelty of the new approach is that it starts from what we know about wetlands, builds ecosystem-specific models from these observations, and avoids known biases in current hydrology-based approaches to wetland definition in methane models.

Where are the food animal veterinarian shortage areas anyway?

PubMed

Wang, Tong; Hennessy, David A; O'Connor, Annette M

2012-05-01

In 2010 the United States implemented the Veterinary Medicine Loan Repayment Program (VMLRP) to address perceived regional shortages in certain veterinary occupations, including food animal practice. With county as the unit of analysis, this paper describes a pair of models to evaluate factors associated with being designated a private practice shortage area in 2010. One model is used to explain food animal veterinarian location choices so as to provide an objective evaluation of comparative shortage. The other model seeks to explain the counties chosen as shortage areas. Model results are then used to evaluate the program. On the whole the program appears to perform quite well. For several states, however, VMLRP shortage designations are inconsistent with the food animal veterinarian location model. Comparative shortage is generally more severe in states that have no VMLRP designated private practice shortage counties than in states that do. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

10 CFR 420.2 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... Planning Organization means that organization required by the Department of Transportation, and designated... planning provisions in a Standard Metropolitan Statistical Area. Model Energy Code, 1993, including Errata, means the model building code published by the Council of American Building Officials, which is...

Users Manual for the Geospatial Stream Flow Model (GeoSFM)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Artan, Guleid A.; Asante, Kwabena; Smith, Jodie; Pervez, Md Shahriar; Entenmann, Debbie; Verdin, James P.; Rowland, James

2008-01-01

The monitoring of wide-area hydrologic events requires the manipulation of large amounts of geospatial and time series data into concise information products that characterize the location and magnitude of the event. To perform these manipulations, scientists at the U.S. Geological Survey Center for Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS), with the cooperation of the U.S. Agency for International Development, Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance (USAID/OFDA), have implemented a hydrologic modeling system. The system includes a data assimilation component to generate data for a Geospatial Stream Flow Model (GeoSFM) that can be run operationally to identify and map wide-area streamflow anomalies. GeoSFM integrates a geographical information system (GIS) for geospatial preprocessing and postprocessing tasks and hydrologic modeling routines implemented as dynamically linked libraries (DLLs) for time series manipulations. Model results include maps that depicting the status of streamflow and soil water conditions. This Users Manual provides step-by-step instructions for running the model and for downloading and processing the input data required for initial model parameterization and daily operation.

Sensitivity of global terrestrial carbon cycle dynamics to variability in satellite-observed burned area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poulter, Benjamin; Cadule, Patricia; Cheiney, Audrey; Ciais, Philippe; Hodson, Elke; Peylin, Philippe; Plummer, Stephen; Spessa, Allan; Saatchi, Sassan; Yue, Chao; Zimmermann, Niklaus E.

2015-02-01

Fire plays an important role in terrestrial ecosystems by regulating biogeochemistry, biogeography, and energy budgets, yet despite the importance of fire as an integral ecosystem process, significant advances remain to improve its prognostic representation in carbon cycle models. To recommend and to help prioritize model improvements, this study investigates the sensitivity of a coupled global biogeography and biogeochemistry model, LPJ, to observed burned area measured by three independent satellite-derived products, GFED v3.1, L3JRC, and GlobCarbon. Model variables are compared with benchmarks that include pantropical aboveground biomass, global tree cover, and CO2 and CO trace gas concentrations. Depending on prescribed burned area product, global aboveground carbon stocks varied by 300 Pg C, and woody cover ranged from 50 to 73 Mkm2. Tree cover and biomass were both reduced linearly with increasing burned area, i.e., at regional scales, a 10% reduction in tree cover per 1000 km2, and 0.04-to-0.40 Mg C reduction per 1000 km2. In boreal regions, satellite burned area improved simulated tree cover and biomass distributions, but in savanna regions, model-data correlations decreased. Global net biome production was relatively insensitive to burned area, and the long-term land carbon sink was robust, 2.5 Pg C yr-1, suggesting that feedbacks from ecosystem respiration compensated for reductions in fuel consumption via fire. CO2 transport provided further evidence that heterotrophic respiration compensated any emission reductions in the absence of fire, with minor differences in modeled CO2 fluxes among burned area products. CO was a more sensitive indicator for evaluating fire emissions, with MODIS-GFED burned area producing CO concentrations largely in agreement with independent observations in high latitudes. This study illustrates how ensembles of burned area data sets can be used to diagnose model structures and parameters for further improvement and also highlights the importance in considering uncertainties and variability in observed burned area data products for model applications.

Use of aerial photos and field reconnaissance to predict groundwater flow of a karst area in the Inner Bluegrass Region of Kentucky

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gremos, K.; Sendlein, L.V.A.

1993-03-01

Significant areas of the continental US (Kentucky included) are underlain by karstified limestone. In many of these areas agriculture is a leading business and a potential non-point source of pollution to the groundwater. A study is underway to assess the Best Management Practices (BMP) on a farm in north-central Woodford County in Kentucky. As part of the study, various computer-based decision models for integrated farm operation will be assessed. Because surface area and run off are integral parts of all of these models, diversion of surface run off through karst features such as sinkholes will modify predictions from these models.more » This study utilizes areal photographs to identify all sinkholes on the property and characterize their morphometric parameters such as length, width, depth, and area and distribution. Sink hole areas represent approximately 10 percent of the area and all but a few discharge within the basin monitored as part of the model. The bedrock geology and fractures of the area have been defined using fracture trace analysis and a rectified drainage linear analysis. Surface drainage patterns, spring distribution, and stream and spring discharge data have been collected. Dye tracing has identified groundwater basins whose catchment area is outside the boundaries of the study site.« less

A method for managing re-identification risk from small geographic areas in Canada

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background A common disclosure control practice for health datasets is to identify small geographic areas and either suppress records from these small areas or aggregate them into larger ones. A recent study provided a method for deciding when an area is too small based on the uniqueness criterion. The uniqueness criterion stipulates that an the area is no longer too small when the proportion of unique individuals on the relevant variables (the quasi-identifiers) approaches zero. However, using a uniqueness value of zero is quite a stringent threshold, and is only suitable when the risks from data disclosure are quite high. Other uniqueness thresholds that have been proposed for health data are 5% and 20%. Methods We estimated uniqueness for urban Forward Sortation Areas (FSAs) by using the 2001 long form Canadian census data representing 20% of the population. We then constructed two logistic regression models to predict when the uniqueness is greater than the 5% and 20% thresholds, and validated their predictive accuracy using 10-fold cross-validation. Predictor variables included the population size of the FSA and the maximum number of possible values on the quasi-identifiers (the number of equivalence classes). Results All model parameters were significant and the models had very high prediction accuracy, with specificity above 0.9, and sensitivity at 0.87 and 0.74 for the 5% and 20% threshold models respectively. The application of the models was illustrated with an analysis of the Ontario newborn registry and an emergency department dataset. At the higher thresholds considerably fewer records compared to the 0% threshold would be considered to be in small areas and therefore undergo disclosure control actions. We have also included concrete guidance for data custodians in deciding which one of the three uniqueness thresholds to use (0%, 5%, 20%), depending on the mitigating controls that the data recipients have in place, the potential invasion of privacy if the data is disclosed, and the motives and capacity of the data recipient to re-identify the data. Conclusion The models we developed can be used to manage the re-identification risk from small geographic areas. Being able to choose among three possible thresholds, a data custodian can adjust the definition of "small geographic area" to the nature of the data and recipient. PMID:20361870

Simulation of Two-Phase Flow Based on a Thermodynamically Constrained Averaging Theory Flow Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weigand, T. M.; Dye, A. L.; McClure, J. E.; Farthing, M. W.; Gray, W. G.; Miller, C. T.

2014-12-01

The thermodynamically constrained averaging theory (TCAT) has been used to formulate general classes of porous medium models, including new models for two-fluid-phase flow. The TCAT approach provides advantages that include a firm connection between the microscale, or pore scale, and the macroscale; a thermodynamically consistent basis; explicit inclusion of factors such as interfacial areas, contact angles, interfacial tension, and curvatures; and dynamics of interface movement and relaxation to an equilibrium state. In order to render the TCAT model solvable, certain closure relations are needed to relate fluid pressure, interfacial areas, curvatures, and relaxation rates. In this work, we formulate and solve a TCAT-based two-fluid-phase flow model. We detail the formulation of the model, which is a specific instance from a hierarchy of two-fluid-phase flow models that emerge from the theory. We show the closure problem that must be solved. Using recent results from high-resolution microscale simulations, we advance a set of closure relations that produce a closed model. Lastly, we use locally conservative spatial discretization and higher order temporal discretization methods to approximate the solution to this new model and compare the solution to the traditional model.

Hybrid artificial intelligence approach based on neural fuzzy inference model and metaheuristic optimization for flood susceptibilitgy modeling in a high-frequency tropical cyclone area using GIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tien Bui, Dieu; Pradhan, Biswajeet; Nampak, Haleh; Bui, Quang-Thanh; Tran, Quynh-An; Nguyen, Quoc-Phi

2016-09-01

This paper proposes a new artificial intelligence approach based on neural fuzzy inference system and metaheuristic optimization for flood susceptibility modeling, namely MONF. In the new approach, the neural fuzzy inference system was used to create an initial flood susceptibility model and then the model was optimized using two metaheuristic algorithms, Evolutionary Genetic and Particle Swarm Optimization. A high-frequency tropical cyclone area of the Tuong Duong district in Central Vietnam was used as a case study. First, a GIS database for the study area was constructed. The database that includes 76 historical flood inundated areas and ten flood influencing factors was used to develop and validate the proposed model. Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve, and area under the ROC curve (AUC) were used to assess the model performance and its prediction capability. Experimental results showed that the proposed model has high performance on both the training (RMSE = 0.306, MAE = 0.094, AUC = 0.962) and validation dataset (RMSE = 0.362, MAE = 0.130, AUC = 0.911). The usability of the proposed model was evaluated by comparing with those obtained from state-of-the art benchmark soft computing techniques such as J48 Decision Tree, Random Forest, Multi-layer Perceptron Neural Network, Support Vector Machine, and Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System. The results show that the proposed MONF model outperforms the above benchmark models; we conclude that the MONF model is a new alternative tool that should be used in flood susceptibility mapping. The result in this study is useful for planners and decision makers for sustainable management of flood-prone areas.

Multistate matrix population model to assess the contributions and impacts on population abundance of domestic cats in urban areas including owned cats, unowned cats, and cats in shelters

PubMed Central

Coe, Jason B.

2018-01-01

Concerns over cat homelessness, over-taxed animal shelters, public health risks, and environmental impacts has raised attention on urban-cat populations. To truly understand cat population dynamics, the collective population of owned cats, unowned cats, and cats in the shelter system must be considered simultaneously because each subpopulation contributes differently to the overall population of cats in a community (e.g., differences in neuter rates, differences in impacts on wildlife) and cats move among categories through human interventions (e.g., adoption, abandonment). To assess this complex socio-ecological system, we developed a multistate matrix model of cats in urban areas that include owned cats, unowned cats (free-roaming and feral), and cats that move through the shelter system. Our model requires three inputs—location, number of human dwellings, and urban area—to provide testable predictions of cat abundance for any city in North America. Model-predicted population size of unowned cats in seven Canadian cities were not significantly different than published estimates (p = 0.23). Model-predicted proportions of sterile feral cats did not match observed sterile cat proportions for six USA cities (p = 0.001). Using a case study from Guelph, Ontario, Canada, we compared model-predicted to empirical estimates of cat abundance in each subpopulation and used perturbation analysis to calculate relative sensitivity of vital rates to cat abundance to demonstrate how management or mismanagement in one portion of the population could have repercussions across all portions of the network. Our study provides a general framework to consider cat population abundance in urban areas and, with refinement that includes city-specific parameter estimates and modeling, could provide a better understanding of population dynamics of cats in our communities. PMID:29489854

The universal, collaborative and dynamic model of specialist and advanced nursing and midwifery practice: A way forward?

PubMed

O'Connor, Laserina; Casey, Mary; Smith, Rita; Fealy, Gerard M; Brien, Denise O'; O'Leary, Denise; Stokes, Diarmuid; McNamara, Martin S; Glasgow, Mary Ellen; Cashin, Andrew

2018-03-01

To inform and guide the development of a future model of specialist and advanced nursing and midwifery practice. There is a sizable body of empirical literature supporting the unique contributions of specialist and advanced practice roles to health care. However, there is very little international evidence to inform the integration of a future model for advanced or specialist practice in the Irish healthcare system. A qualitative study was conducted to initiate this important area of inquiry. Purposive sampling was used to generate a sample of informants (n = 15) for the interviews. Nurses and midwives working in specialist and advanced practice and participants from other areas such as legislative, regulatory, policy, medicine and education were included in the sampling frame. Arguments for a new model of specialist and advanced practice were voiced. A number of participants proposed that flexibility within specialist and advanced practitioner career pathways was essential. Otherwise, there existed the possibility of being directed into specialised "silos," precluding movement to another area of integrated practice. Future specialist and advanced practice education programmes need to include topics such as the development of emotional and political intelligence. The contribution of specialist and advanced practice roles to the health service includes providing rapid access to care, seamless patient flow across services, early discharge and lead coordinator of the patient's care trajectory. There was a recommendation of moving towards a universal model to cultivate specialist and advanced nurse and midwife practitioners. The model design has Universal application in a range of contexts "U." It is Collaborative in its inclusivity of all key stakeholders "C." The model is Dynamic pertinent to accommodating movement of nurses and midwives across health continua rather than plateauing in very specialised "silos" "D." © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A rock physics and seismic reservoir characterization study of the Rock Springs Uplift, a carbon dioxide sequestration site in Southwestern Wyoming

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Grana, Dario; Verma, Sumit; Pafeng, Josiane

We present a reservoir geophysics study, including rock physics modeling and seismic inversion, of a carbon dioxide sequestration site in Southwestern Wyoming, namely the Rock Springs Uplift, and build a petrophysical model for the potential injection reservoirs for carbon dioxide sequestration. Our objectives include the facies classification and the estimation of the spatial model of porosity and permeability for two sequestration targets of interest, the Madison Limestone and the Weber Sandstone. The available dataset includes a complete set of well logs at the location of the borehole available in the area, a set of 110 core samples, and a seismicmore » survey acquired in the area around the well. The proposed study includes a formation evaluation analysis and facies classification at the well location, the calibration of a rock physics model to link petrophysical properties and elastic attributes using well log data and core samples, the elastic inversion of the pre-stack seismic data, and the estimation of the reservoir model of facies, porosity and permeability conditioned by seismic inverted elastic attributes and well log data. In particular, the rock physics relations are facies-dependent and include granular media equations for clean and shaley sandstone, and inclusion models for the dolomitized limestone. The permeability model has been computed by applying a facies-dependent porosity-permeability relation calibrated using core sample measurements. Finally, the study shows that both formations show good storage capabilities. The Madison Limestone includes a homogeneous layer of high-porosity high-permeability dolomite; the Weber Sandstone is characterized by a lower average porosity but the layer is thicker than the Madison Limestone.« less

A rock physics and seismic reservoir characterization study of the Rock Springs Uplift, a carbon dioxide sequestration site in Southwestern Wyoming

DOE PAGES

Grana, Dario; Verma, Sumit; Pafeng, Josiane; ...

2017-06-20

We present a reservoir geophysics study, including rock physics modeling and seismic inversion, of a carbon dioxide sequestration site in Southwestern Wyoming, namely the Rock Springs Uplift, and build a petrophysical model for the potential injection reservoirs for carbon dioxide sequestration. Our objectives include the facies classification and the estimation of the spatial model of porosity and permeability for two sequestration targets of interest, the Madison Limestone and the Weber Sandstone. The available dataset includes a complete set of well logs at the location of the borehole available in the area, a set of 110 core samples, and a seismicmore » survey acquired in the area around the well. The proposed study includes a formation evaluation analysis and facies classification at the well location, the calibration of a rock physics model to link petrophysical properties and elastic attributes using well log data and core samples, the elastic inversion of the pre-stack seismic data, and the estimation of the reservoir model of facies, porosity and permeability conditioned by seismic inverted elastic attributes and well log data. In particular, the rock physics relations are facies-dependent and include granular media equations for clean and shaley sandstone, and inclusion models for the dolomitized limestone. The permeability model has been computed by applying a facies-dependent porosity-permeability relation calibrated using core sample measurements. Finally, the study shows that both formations show good storage capabilities. The Madison Limestone includes a homogeneous layer of high-porosity high-permeability dolomite; the Weber Sandstone is characterized by a lower average porosity but the layer is thicker than the Madison Limestone.« less

The relative influence of nutrients and habitat on stream metabolism in agricultural streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frankforter, J.D.; Weyers, H.S.; Bales, J.D.; Moran, P.W.; Calhoun, D.L.

2010-01-01

Stream metabolism was measured in 33 streams across a gradient of nutrient concentrations in four agricultural areas of the USA to determine the relative influence of nutrient concentrations and habitat on primary production (GPP) and respiration (CR-24). In conjunction with the stream metabolism estimates, water quality and algal biomass samples were collected, as was an assessment of habitat in the sampling reach. When data for all study areas were combined, there were no statistically significant relations between gross primary production or community respiration and any of the independent variables. However, significant regression models were developed for three study areas for GPP (r 2 = 0.79-0.91) and CR-24 (r 2 = 0.76-0.77). Various forms of nutrients (total phosphorus and area-weighted total nitrogen loading) were significant for predicting GPP in two study areas, with habitat variables important in seven significant models. Important physical variables included light availability, precipitation, basin area, and in-stream habitat cover. Both benthic and seston chlorophyll were not found to be important explanatory variables in any of the models; however, benthic ash-free dry weight was important in two models for GPP. ?? 2009 The Author(s).

Getting governance right for a sustainable regionalised business model.

PubMed

Laurence, Caroline O; Black, Linda E; Rowe, Mark; Pearce, Rod

2011-06-06

The 1998 Ministerial Review of General Practice Training identified several areas for improvement that led to major changes in the provision of general practice training, including the establishment of General Practice Education and Training (GPET) and the regionalisation of training. The regionalised training business model has been in place for nearly 10 years, and several key organisations have been involved in its evolution, including the Australian Government, speciality colleges, GPET and regionalised training providers. Both the college-focused and regionalised-focused models have had some successes. These include recognition and support of general practice as a vocational specialty, increased numbers of junior doctors undertaking placements in general practice, and increased numbers of registrars training in rural areas. This period has also seen changes in the governance and decision-making processes with creation of a new framework that is inclusive of all the key players in the new regionalised training system. The future holds challenges for the regionalised training business model as the general practice education and training landscape becomes more complex. The framework in the current model will provide a base to help meet these challenges and allow for further sustainable expansion.

Effects of Grid Resolution on Modeled Air Pollutant Concentrations Due to Emissions from Large Point Sources: Case Study during KORUS-AQ 2016 Campaign

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ju, H.; Bae, C.; Kim, B. U.; Kim, H. C.; Kim, S.

2017-12-01

Large point sources in the Chungnam area received a nation-wide attention in South Korea because the area is located southwest of the Seoul Metropolitan Area whose population is over 22 million and the summertime prevalent winds in the area is northeastward. Therefore, emissions from the large point sources in the Chungnam area were one of the major observation targets during the KORUS-AQ 2016 including aircraft measurements. In general, horizontal grid resolutions of eulerian photochemical models have profound effects on estimated air pollutant concentrations. It is due to the formulation of grid models; that is, emissions in a grid cell will be assumed to be mixed well under planetary boundary layers regardless of grid cell sizes. In this study, we performed series of simulations with the Comprehensive Air Quality Model with eXetension (CAMx). For 9-km and 3-km simulations, we used meteorological fields obtained from the Weather Research and Forecast model while utilizing the "Flexi-nesting" option in the CAMx for the 1-km simulation. In "Flexi-nesting" mode, CAMx interpolates or assigns model inputs from the immediate parent grid. We compared modeled concentrations with ground observation data as well as aircraft measurements to quantify variations of model bias and error depending on horizontal grid resolutions.

Projected change in East Asian summer monsoon by dynamic downscaling: Moisture budget analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jung, Chun-Yong; Shin, Ho-Jeong; Jang, Chan Joo; Kim, Hyung-Jin

2015-02-01

The summer monsoon considerably affects water resource and natural hazards including flood and drought in East Asia, one of the world's most densely populated area. In this study, we investigate future changes in summer precipitation over East Asia induced by global warming through dynamical downscaling with the Weather Research and Forecast model. We have selected a global model from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 based on an objective evaluation for East Asian summer monsoon and applied its climate change under Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 scenario to a pseudo global warming method. Unlike the previous studies that focused on a qualitative description of projected precipitation changes over East Asia, this study tried to identify the physical causes of the precipitation changes by analyzing a local moisture budget. Projected changes in precipitation over the eastern foothills area of Tibetan Plateau including Sichuan Basin and Yangtze River displayed a contrasting pattern: a decrease in its northern area and an increase in its southern area. A local moisture budget analysis indicated the precipitation increase over the southern area can be mainly attributed to an increase in horizontal wind convergence and surface evaporation. On the other hand, the precipitation decrease over the northern area can be largely explained by horizontal advection of dry air from the northern continent and by divergent wind flow. Regional changes in future precipitation in East Asia are likely to be attributed to different mechanisms which can be better resolved by regional dynamical downscaling.

Potential distribution of the viral haemorrhagic septicaemia virus in the Great Lakes region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Escobar, Luis E.; Kurath, Gael; Escobar-Dodero, Joaquim; Craft, Meggan E.; Phelps, Nicholas B.D.

2017-01-01

Viral haemorrhagic septicaemia virus (VHSV) genotype IVb has been responsible for large-scale fish mortality events in the Great Lakes of North America. Anticipating the areas of potential VHSV occurrence is key to designing epidemiological surveillance and disease prevention strategies in the Great Lakes basin. We explored the environmental features that could shape the distribution of VHSV, based on remote sensing and climate data via ecological niche modelling. Variables included temperature measured during the day and night, precipitation, vegetation, bathymetry, solar radiation and topographic wetness. VHSV occurrences were obtained from available reports of virus confirmation in laboratory facilities. We fit a Maxent model using VHSV-IVb reports and environmental variables under different parameterizations to identify the best model to determine potential VHSV occurrence based on environmental suitability. VHSV reports were generated from both passive and active surveillance. VHSV occurrences were most abundant near shore sites. We were, however, able to capture the environmental signature of VHSV based on the environmental variables employed in our model, allowing us to identify patterns of VHSV potential occurrence. Our findings suggest that VHSV is not at an ecological equilibrium and more areas could be affected, including areas not in close geographic proximity to past VHSV reports.

Framework of distributed coupled atmosphere-ocean-wave modeling system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wen, Yuanqiao; Huang, Liwen; Deng, Jian; Zhang, Jinfeng; Wang, Sisi; Wang, Lijun

2006-05-01

In order to research the interactions between the atmosphere and ocean as well as their important role in the intensive weather systems of coastal areas, and to improve the forecasting ability of the hazardous weather processes of coastal areas, a coupled atmosphere-ocean-wave modeling system has been developed. The agent-based environment framework for linking models allows flexible and dynamic information exchange between models. For the purpose of flexibility, portability and scalability, the framework of the whole system takes a multi-layer architecture that includes a user interface layer, computational layer and service-enabling layer. The numerical experiment presented in this paper demonstrates the performance of the distributed coupled modeling system.

Toward Improved Fidelity of Thermal Explosion Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nichols, A. L.; Becker, R.; Howard, W. M.; Wemhoff, A.

2009-12-01

We will present results of an effort to improve the thermal/chemical/mechanical modeling of HMX based explosives like LX04 and LX10 for thermal cook-off The original HMX model and analysis scheme were developed by Yoh et al. for use in the ALE3D modeling framework. The current results were built to remedy the deficiencies of that original model. We concentrated our efforts in four areas. The first area was addition of porosity to the chemical material model framework in ALE3D that is used to model the HMX explosive formulation. This is needed to handle the roughly 2% porosity in solid explosives. The second area was the improvement of the HMX reaction network, which included a reactive phase change model base on work by Henson et al. The third area required adding early decomposition gas species to the CHEETAH material database to develop more accurate equations of state for gaseous intermediates and products. Finally, it was necessary to improve the implicit mechanics module in ALE3D to more naturally handle the long time scales associated with thermal cook-off The application of the resulting framework to the analysis of the Scaled Thermal Explosion (STEX) experiments will be discussed.

Techniques for estimating the quantity and quality of storm runoff from urban watersheds of Jefferson County, Kentucky

USGS Publications Warehouse

Evaldi, R.D.; Moore, B.L.

1994-01-01

Linear regression models are presented for estimating storm-runoff volumes, and mean con- centrations and loads of selected constituents in storm runoff from urban watersheds of Jefferson County, Kentucky. Constituents modeled include dissolved oxygen, biochemical and chemical oxygen demand, total and suspended solids, volatile residue, nitrogen, phosphorus and phosphate, calcium, magnesium, barium, copper, iron, lead, and zinc. Model estimations are a function of drainage area, percentage of impervious area, climatological data, and land uses. Estimation models are based on runoff volumes, and concen- trations and loads of constituents in runoff measured at 6 stormwater outfalls and 25 streams in Jefferson County.

Implications of Fine-Grained Habitat Fragmentation and Road Mortality for Jaguar Conservation in the Atlantic Forest, Brazil.

PubMed

Cullen, Laury; Stanton, Jessica C; Lima, Fernando; Uezu, Alexandre; Perilli, Miriam L L; Akçakaya, H Reşit

2016-01-01

Jaguar (Panthera onca) populations in the Upper Paraná River, in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest region, live in a landscape that includes highly fragmented areas as well as relatively intact ones. We developed a model of jaguar habitat suitability in this region, and based on this habitat model, we developed a spatially structured metapopulation model of the jaguar populations in this area to analyze their viability, the potential impact of road mortality on the populations' persistence, and the interaction between road mortality and habitat fragmentation. In more highly fragmented populations, density of jaguars per unit area is lower and density of roads per jaguar is higher. The populations with the most fragmented habitat were predicted to have much lower persistence in the next 100 years when the model included no dispersal, indicating that the persistence of these populations are dependent to a large extent on dispersal from other populations. This, in turn, indicates that the interaction between road mortality and habitat fragmentation may lead to source-sink dynamics, whereby populations with highly fragmented habitat are maintained only by dispersal from populations with less fragmented habitat. This study demonstrates the utility of linking habitat and demographic models in assessing impacts on species living in fragmented landscapes.

Implications of Fine-Grained Habitat Fragmentation and Road Mortality for Jaguar Conservation in the Atlantic Forest, Brazil

PubMed Central

Cullen, Laury; Stanton, Jessica C.; Lima, Fernando; Uezu, Alexandre; Perilli, Miriam L. L.; Akçakaya, H. Reşit

2016-01-01

Jaguar (Panthera onca) populations in the Upper Paraná River, in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest region, live in a landscape that includes highly fragmented areas as well as relatively intact ones. We developed a model of jaguar habitat suitability in this region, and based on this habitat model, we developed a spatially structured metapopulation model of the jaguar populations in this area to analyze their viability, the potential impact of road mortality on the populations' persistence, and the interaction between road mortality and habitat fragmentation. In more highly fragmented populations, density of jaguars per unit area is lower and density of roads per jaguar is higher. The populations with the most fragmented habitat were predicted to have much lower persistence in the next 100 years when the model included no dispersal, indicating that the persistence of these populations are dependent to a large extent on dispersal from other populations. This, in turn, indicates that the interaction between road mortality and habitat fragmentation may lead to source-sink dynamics, whereby populations with highly fragmented habitat are maintained only by dispersal from populations with less fragmented habitat. This study demonstrates the utility of linking habitat and demographic models in assessing impacts on species living in fragmented landscapes. PMID:27973584

[Models for biomass estimation of four shrub species planted in urban area of Xi'an city, Northwest China].

PubMed

Yao, Zheng-Yang; Liu, Jian-Jun

2014-01-01

Four common greening shrub species (i. e. Ligustrum quihoui, Buxus bodinieri, Berberis xinganensis and Buxus megistophylla) in Xi'an City were selected to develop the highest correlation and best-fit estimation models for the organ (branch, leaf and root) and total biomass against different independent variables. The results indicated that the organ and total biomass optimal models of the four shrubs were power functional model (CAR model) except for the leaf biomass model of B. megistophylla which was logarithmic functional model (VAR model). The independent variables included basal diameter, crown diameter, crown diameter multiplied by height, canopy area and canopy volume. B. megistophylla significantly differed from the other three shrub species in the independent variable selection, which were basal diameter and crown-related factors, respectively.

Groundwater availability in the Crouch Branch and McQueen Branch aquifers, Chesterfield County, South Carolina, 1900-2012

USGS Publications Warehouse

Campbell, Bruce G.; Landmeyer, James E.

2014-01-01

Chesterfield County is located in the northeastern part of South Carolina along the southern border of North Carolina and is primarily underlain by unconsolidated sediments of Late Cretaceous age and younger of the Atlantic Coastal Plain. Approximately 20 percent of Chesterfield County is in the Piedmont Physiographic Province, and this area of the county is not included in this study. These Atlantic Coastal Plain sediments compose two productive aquifers: the Crouch Branch aquifer that is present at land surface across most of the county and the deeper, semi-confined McQueen Branch aquifer. Most of the potable water supplied to residents of Chesterfield County is produced from the Crouch Branch and McQueen Branch aquifers by a well field located near McBee, South Carolina, in the southwestern part of the county. Overall, groundwater availability is good to very good in most of Chesterfield County, especially the area around and to the south of McBee, South Carolina. The eastern part of Chesterfield County does not have as abundant groundwater resources but resources are generally adequate for domestic purposes. The primary purpose of this study was to determine groundwater-flow rates, flow directions, and changes in water budgets over time for the Crouch Branch and McQueen Branch aquifers in the Chesterfield County area. This goal was accomplished by using the U.S. Geological Survey finite-difference MODFLOW groundwater-flow code to construct and calibrate a groundwater-flow model of the Atlantic Coastal Plain of Chesterfield County. The model was created with a uniform grid size of 300 by 300 feet to facilitate a more accurate simulation of groundwater-surface-water interactions. The model consists of 617 rows from north to south extending about 35 miles and 884 columns from west to east extending about 50 miles, yielding a total area of about 1,750 square miles. However, the active part of the modeled area, or the part where groundwater flow is simulated, totaled about 1,117 square miles. Major types of data used as input to the model included groundwater levels, groundwater-use data, and hydrostratigraphic data, along with estimates and measurements of stream base flows made specifically for this study. The groundwater-flow model was calibrated to groundwater-level and stream base-flow conditions from 1900 to 2012 using 39 stress periods. The model was calibrated with an automated parameter-estimation approach using the computer program PEST, and the model used regularized inversion and pilot points. The groundwater-flow model was calibrated using field data that included groundwater levels that had been collected between 1940 and 2012 from 239 wells and base-flow measurements from 44 locations distributed within the study area. To better understand recharge and inter-aquifer interactions, seven wells were equipped with continuous groundwater-level recording equipment during the course of the study, between 2008 and 2012. These water levels were included in the model calibration process. The observed groundwater levels were compared to the simulated ones, and acceptable calibration fits were achieved. Root mean square error for the simulated groundwater levels compared to all observed groundwater levels was 9.3 feet for the Crouch Branch aquifer and 8.6 feet for the McQueen Branch aquifer. The calibrated groundwater-flow model was then used to calculate groundwater budgets for the entire study area and for two sub-areas. The sub-areas are the Alligator Rural Water and Sewer Company well field near McBee, South Carolina, and the Carolina Sandhills National Wildlife Refuge acquisition boundary area. For the overall model area, recharge rates vary from 56 to 1,679 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) with a mean of 737 Mgal/d over the simulation period (1900–2012). The simulated water budget for the streams and rivers varies from 653 to 1,127 Mgal/d with a mean of 944 Mgal/d. The simulated “storage-in term” ranges from 0 to 565 Mgal/d with a mean of 276 Mgal/d. The simulated “storage-out term” has a range of 0 to 552 Mgal/d with a mean of 77 Mgal/d. Groundwater budgets for the McBee, South Carolina, area and the Carolina Sandhills National Wildlife Refuge acquisition area had similar results. An analysis of the effects of past and current groundwater withdrawals on base flows in the McBee area indicated a negligible effect of pumping from the Alligator Rural Water and Sewer well field on local stream base flows. Simulate base flows for 2012 for selected streams in and around the McBee area were similar with and without simulated groundwater withdrawals from the well field. Removing all pumping from the model for the entire simulation period (1900–2012) produces a negligible difference in increased base flow for the selected streams. The 2012 flow for Lower Alligator Creek was 5.04 Mgal/d with the wells pumping and 5.08 Mgal/d without the wells pumping; this represents the largest difference in simulated flows for the six streams.

Hydrology and numerical simulation of groundwater movement and heat transport in Snake Valley and surrounding areas, Juab, Miller, and Beaver Counties, Utah, and White Pine and Lincoln Counties, Nevada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Masbruch, Melissa D.; Gardner, Philip M.; Brooks, Lynette E.

2014-01-01

Snake Valley and surrounding areas, along the Utah-Nevada state border, are part of the Great Basin carbonate and alluvial aquifer system. The groundwater system in the study area consists of water in unconsolidated deposits in basins and water in consolidated rock underlying the basins and in the adjacent mountain blocks. Most recharge occurs from precipitation on the mountain blocks and most discharge occurs from the lower altitude basin-fill deposits mainly as evapotranspiration, springflow, and well withdrawals.The Snake Valley area regional groundwater system was simulated using a three-dimensional model incorporating both groundwater flow and heat transport. The model was constructed with MODFLOW-2000, a version of the U.S. Geological Survey’s groundwater flow model, and MT3DMS, a transport model that simulates advection, dispersion, and chemical reactions of solutes or heat in groundwater systems. Observations of groundwater discharge by evapotranspiration, springflow, mountain stream base flow, and well withdrawals; groundwater-level altitudes; and groundwater temperatures were used to calibrate the model. Parameter values estimated by regression analyses were reasonable and within the range of expected values.This study represents one of the first regional modeling efforts to include calibration to groundwater temperature data. The inclusion of temperature observations reduced parameter uncertainty, in some cases quite significantly, over using just water-level altitude and discharge observations. Of the 39 parameters used to simulate horizontal hydraulic conductivity, uncertainty on 11 of these parameters was reduced to one order of magnitude or less. Other significant reductions in parameter uncertainty occurred in parameters representing the vertical anisotropy ratio, drain and river conductance, recharge rates, and well withdrawal rates.The model provides a good representation of the groundwater system. Simulated water-level altitudes range over almost 2,000 meters (m); 98 percent of the simulated values of water-level altitudes in wells are within 30 m of observed water-level altitudes, and 58 percent of them are within 12 m. Nineteen of 20 simulated discharges are within 30 percent of observed discharge. Eighty-one percent of the simulated values of groundwater temperatures in wells are within 2 degrees Celsius (°C) of the observed values, and 55 percent of them are within 0.75 °C. The numerical model represents a more robust quantification of groundwater budget components than previous studies because the model integrates all components of the groundwater budget. The model also incorporates new data including (1) a detailed hydrogeologic framework, and (2) more observations, including several new water-level altitudes throughout the study area, several new measurements of spring discharge within Snake Valley which had not previously been monitored, and groundwater temperature data. Uncertainty in the estimates of subsurface flow are less than those of previous studies because the model balanced recharge and discharge across the entire simulated area, not just in each hydrographic area, and because of the large dataset of observations (water-level altitudes, discharge, and temperatures) used to calibrate the model and the resulting transmissivity distribution.Groundwater recharge from precipitation and unconsumed irrigation in Snake Valley is 160,000 acre-feet per year (acre-ft/yr), which is within the range of previous estimates. Subsurface inflow from southern Spring Valley to southern Snake Valley is 13,000 acre-ft/yr and is within the range of previous estimates; subsurface inflow from Spring Valley to Snake Valley north of the Snake Range, however, is only 2,200 acre-ft/yr, which is much less than has been previously estimated. Groundwater discharge from groundwater evapotranspiration and springs is 100,000 acre-ft/yr, and discharge to mountain streams is 3,300 acre-ft/yr; these are within the range of previous estimates. Current well withdrawals are 28,000 acre-ft/yr. Subsurface outflow from Snake Valley moves into Pine Valley (2,000 acre-ft/yr), Wah Wah Valley (23 acre-ft/yr), Tule Valley (33,000 acre-ft/yr), Fish Springs Flat (790 acre-ft/yr), and outside of the study area towards Great Salt Lake Desert (8,400 acre-ft/yr); these outflows, totaling about 44,000 acre-ft/yr, are within the range of previous estimates.The subsurface flow amounts indicate the degree of connectivity between hydrographic areas within the study area. The simulated transmissivity and locations of natural discharge, however, provide a better estimate of the effect of groundwater withdrawals on groundwater resources than does the amount and direction of subsurface flow between hydrographic areas. The distribution of simulated transmissivity throughout the study area includes many areas of high transmissivity within and between hydrographic areas. Increased well withdrawals within these high transmissivity areas will likely affect a large part of the study area, resulting in declining groundwater levels, as well as leading to a decrease in natural discharge to springs and evapotranspiration.

Atmospheric dispersion modelling over complex terrain at small scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nosek, S.; Janour, Z.; Kukacka, L.; Jurcakova, K.; Kellnerova, R.; Gulikova, E.

2014-03-01

Previous study concerned of qualitative modelling neutrally stratified flow over open-cut coal mine and important surrounding topography at meso-scale (1:9000) revealed an important area for quantitative modelling of atmospheric dispersion at small-scale (1:3300). The selected area includes a necessary part of the coal mine topography with respect to its future expansion and surrounding populated areas. At this small-scale simultaneous measurement of velocity components and concentrations in specified points of vertical and horizontal planes were performed by two-dimensional Laser Doppler Anemometry (LDA) and Fast-Response Flame Ionization Detector (FFID), respectively. The impact of the complex terrain on passive pollutant dispersion with respect to the prevailing wind direction was observed and the prediction of the air quality at populated areas is discussed. The measured data will be used for comparison with another model taking into account the future coal mine transformation. Thus, the impact of coal mine transformation on pollutant dispersion can be observed.

Entanglement contour perspective for "strong area-law violation" in a disordered long-range hopping model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roy, Nilanjan; Sharma, Auditya

2018-03-01

We numerically investigate the link between the delocalization-localization transition and entanglement in a disordered long-range hopping model of spinless fermions by studying various static and dynamical quantities. This includes the inverse participation ratio, level statistics, entanglement entropy, and number fluctuations in the subsystem along with quench and wave-packet dynamics. Finite systems show delocalized, quasilocalized, and localized phases. The delocalized phase shows strong area-law violation, whereas the (quasi)localized phase adheres to (for large subsystems) the strict area law. The idea of "entanglement contour" nicely explains the violation of area law and its relationship with "fluctuation contour" reveals a signature at the transition point. The relationship between entanglement entropy and number fluctuations in the subsystem also carries signatures for the transition in the model. Results from the Aubry-Andre-Harper model are compared in this context. The propagation of charge and entanglement are contrasted by studying quench and wave-packet dynamics at the single-particle and many-particle levels.

Fracture and damage; Winter Annual Meeting of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers, Anaheim, CA, Nov. 8-13, 1992

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nagar, Arvind (Editor)

1992-01-01

The latest developments in the area of fracture and damage at high temperatures are discussed, in particular: modeling; analysis and experimental techniques for interface damage in composites including the effects of residual stresses and temperatures; and crack growth, inelastic deformation and fracture parameters for isotropic materials. Also included are damage modeling and experiments at elevated temperatures.

NASTRAN thermal analyzer: Theory and application including a guide to modeling engineering problems, volume 2. [sample problem library guide

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jackson, C. E., Jr.

1977-01-01

A sample problem library containing 20 problems covering most facets of Nastran Thermal Analyzer modeling is presented. Areas discussed include radiative interchange, arbitrary nonlinear loads, transient temperature and steady-state structural plots, temperature-dependent conductivities, simulated multi-layer insulation, and constraint techniques. The use of the major control options and important DMAP alters is demonstrated.

Community air pollution and mortality: Analysis of 1980 data from US metropolitan areas. 1: Particulate air pollution

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lipfert, F.W.

1992-11-01

1980 data from up to 149 metropolitan areas were used to define cross-sectional associations between community air pollution and excess human mortality. The regression model proposed by Oezkaynak and Thurston, which accounted for age, race, education, poverty, and population density, was evaluated and several new models were developed. The new models also accounted for population change, drinking water hardness, and smoking, and included a more detailed description of race. Cause-of-death categories analyzed include all causes, all non-external causes, major cardiovascular diseases, and chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases (COPD). Both annual mortality rates and their logarithms were analyzed. The data on particulatesmore » were averaged across all monitoring stations available for each SMSA and the TSP data were restricted to the year 1980. The associations between mortality and air pollution were found to be dependent on the socioeconomic factors included in the models, the specific locations included din the data set, and the type of statistical model used. Statistically significant associations were found between TSP and mortality due to non-external causes with log-linear models, but not with a linear model, and between TS and COPD mortality for both linear and log-linear models. When the sulfate contribution to TSP was subtracted, the relationship with COPD mortality was strengthened. Scatter plots and quintile analyses suggested a TSP threshold for COPD mortality at around 65 ug/m{sup 3} (annual average). SO{sub 4}{sup {minus}2}, Mn, PM{sup 15}, and PM{sub 2.5} were not significantly associated with mortality using the new models.« less

A Third-Order Item Response Theory Model for Modeling the Effects of Domains and Subdomains in Large-Scale Educational Assessment Surveys

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rijmen, Frank; Jeon, Minjeong; von Davier, Matthias; Rabe-Hesketh, Sophia

2014-01-01

Second-order item response theory models have been used for assessments consisting of several domains, such as content areas. We extend the second-order model to a third-order model for assessments that include subdomains nested in domains. Using a graphical model framework, it is shown how the model does not suffer from the curse of…

Can foot anthropometric measurements predict dynamic plantar surface contact area?

PubMed

McPoil, Thomas G; Vicenzino, Bill; Cornwall, Mark W; Collins, Natalie

2009-10-28

Previous studies have suggested that increased plantar surface area, associated with pes planus, is a risk factor for the development of lower extremity overuse injuries. The intent of this study was to determine if a single or combination of foot anthropometric measures could be used to predict plantar surface area. Six foot measurements were collected on 155 subjects (97 females, 58 males, mean age 24.5 +/- 3.5 years). The measurements as well as one ratio were entered into a stepwise regression analysis to determine the optimal set of measurements associated with total plantar contact area either including or excluding the toe region. The predicted values were used to calculate plantar surface area and were compared to the actual values obtained dynamically using a pressure sensor platform. A three variable model was found to describe the relationship between the foot measures/ratio and total plantar contact area (R2 = 0.77, p < 0.0001)). A three variable model was also found to describe the relationship between the foot measures/ratio and plantar contact area minus the toe region (R2 = 0.76, p < 0.0001). The results of this study indicate that the clinician can use a combination of simple, reliable, and time efficient foot anthropometric measurements to explain over 75% of the plantar surface contact area, either including or excluding the toe region.

Can foot anthropometric measurements predict dynamic plantar surface contact area?

PubMed Central

2009-01-01

Background Previous studies have suggested that increased plantar surface area, associated with pes planus, is a risk factor for the development of lower extremity overuse injuries. The intent of this study was to determine if a single or combination of foot anthropometric measures could be used to predict plantar surface area. Methods Six foot measurements were collected on 155 subjects (97 females, 58 males, mean age 24.5 ± 3.5 years). The measurements as well as one ratio were entered into a stepwise regression analysis to determine the optimal set of measurements associated with total plantar contact area either including or excluding the toe region. The predicted values were used to calculate plantar surface area and were compared to the actual values obtained dynamically using a pressure sensor platform. Results A three variable model was found to describe the relationship between the foot measures/ratio and total plantar contact area (R2 = 0.77, p < 0.0001)). A three variable model was also found to describe the relationship between the foot measures/ratio and plantar contact area minus the toe region (R2 = 0.76, p < 0.0001). Conclusion The results of this study indicate that the clinician can use a combination of simple, reliable, and time efficient foot anthropometric measurements to explain over 75% of the plantar surface contact area, either including or excluding the toe region. PMID:19863799

Terminal area air traffic control simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1977-01-01

To study the impact of advanced aeronautical technologies on operations to and from terminal airports, a computer model of air traffic movements was developed. The advantages of fast-time simulation are discussed, and the arrival scheduling and flight simulation are described. A New York area study, user's guide, and programmer's guide are included.

Climate Change Effects on Agriculture: Economic Responses to Biophysical Shocks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nelson, Gerald C.; Valin, Hugo; Sands, Ronald D.; Havlik, Petr; Ahammad, Helal; Deryng, Delphine; Elliott, Joshua; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Heyhoe, Edwina

2014-01-01

Agricultural production is sensitive to weather and thus directly affected by climate change. Plausible estimates of these climate change impacts require combined use of climate, crop, and economic models. Results from previous studies vary substantially due to differences in models, scenarios, and data. This paper is part of a collective effort to systematically integrate these three types of models. We focus on the economic component of the assessment, investigating how nine global economic models of agriculture represent endogenous responses to seven standardized climate change scenarios produced by two climate and five crop models. These responses include adjustments in yields, area, consumption, and international trade. We apply biophysical shocks derived from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's representative concentration pathway with end-of-century radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m(sup 2). The mean biophysical yield effect with no incremental CO2 fertilization is a 17% reduction globally by 2050 relative to a scenario with unchanging climate. Endogenous economic responses reduce yield loss to 11%, increase area of major crops by 11%, and reduce consumption by 3%. Agricultural production, cropland area, trade, and prices show the greatest degree of variability in response to climate change, and consumption the lowest. The sources of these differences include model structure and specification; in particular, model assumptions about ease of land use conversion, intensification, and trade. This study identifies where models disagree on the relative responses to climate shocks and highlights research activities needed to improve the representation of agricultural adaptation responses to climate change.

Climate change effects on agriculture: Economic responses to biophysical shocks

PubMed Central

Nelson, Gerald C.; Valin, Hugo; Sands, Ronald D.; Havlík, Petr; Ahammad, Helal; Deryng, Delphine; Elliott, Joshua; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Heyhoe, Edwina; Kyle, Page; Von Lampe, Martin; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Mason d’Croz, Daniel; van Meijl, Hans; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; Müller, Christoph; Popp, Alexander; Robertson, Richard; Robinson, Sherman; Schmid, Erwin; Schmitz, Christoph; Tabeau, Andrzej; Willenbockel, Dirk

2014-01-01

Agricultural production is sensitive to weather and thus directly affected by climate change. Plausible estimates of these climate change impacts require combined use of climate, crop, and economic models. Results from previous studies vary substantially due to differences in models, scenarios, and data. This paper is part of a collective effort to systematically integrate these three types of models. We focus on the economic component of the assessment, investigating how nine global economic models of agriculture represent endogenous responses to seven standardized climate change scenarios produced by two climate and five crop models. These responses include adjustments in yields, area, consumption, and international trade. We apply biophysical shocks derived from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s representative concentration pathway with end-of-century radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m2. The mean biophysical yield effect with no incremental CO2 fertilization is a 17% reduction globally by 2050 relative to a scenario with unchanging climate. Endogenous economic responses reduce yield loss to 11%, increase area of major crops by 11%, and reduce consumption by 3%. Agricultural production, cropland area, trade, and prices show the greatest degree of variability in response to climate change, and consumption the lowest. The sources of these differences include model structure and specification; in particular, model assumptions about ease of land use conversion, intensification, and trade. This study identifies where models disagree on the relative responses to climate shocks and highlights research activities needed to improve the representation of agricultural adaptation responses to climate change. PMID:24344285

Climate change effects on agriculture: economic responses to biophysical shocks.

PubMed

Nelson, Gerald C; Valin, Hugo; Sands, Ronald D; Havlík, Petr; Ahammad, Helal; Deryng, Delphine; Elliott, Joshua; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Heyhoe, Edwina; Kyle, Page; Von Lampe, Martin; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Mason d'Croz, Daniel; van Meijl, Hans; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; Müller, Christoph; Popp, Alexander; Robertson, Richard; Robinson, Sherman; Schmid, Erwin; Schmitz, Christoph; Tabeau, Andrzej; Willenbockel, Dirk

2014-03-04

Agricultural production is sensitive to weather and thus directly affected by climate change. Plausible estimates of these climate change impacts require combined use of climate, crop, and economic models. Results from previous studies vary substantially due to differences in models, scenarios, and data. This paper is part of a collective effort to systematically integrate these three types of models. We focus on the economic component of the assessment, investigating how nine global economic models of agriculture represent endogenous responses to seven standardized climate change scenarios produced by two climate and five crop models. These responses include adjustments in yields, area, consumption, and international trade. We apply biophysical shocks derived from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's representative concentration pathway with end-of-century radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m(2). The mean biophysical yield effect with no incremental CO2 fertilization is a 17% reduction globally by 2050 relative to a scenario with unchanging climate. Endogenous economic responses reduce yield loss to 11%, increase area of major crops by 11%, and reduce consumption by 3%. Agricultural production, cropland area, trade, and prices show the greatest degree of variability in response to climate change, and consumption the lowest. The sources of these differences include model structure and specification; in particular, model assumptions about ease of land use conversion, intensification, and trade. This study identifies where models disagree on the relative responses to climate shocks and highlights research activities needed to improve the representation of agricultural adaptation responses to climate change.

A Hydrostratigraphic System for Modeling Groundwater Flow and Radionuclide Migration at the Corrective Action Unit Scale, Nevada Test Site and Surrounding Areas, Clark, Lincoln, and Nye Counties, Nevada

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Prothro, Lance; Drellack Jr., Sigmund; Mercadante, Jennifer

2009-01-31

Underground Test Area (UGTA) corrective action unit (CAU) groundwater flow and contaminant transport models of the Nevada Test Site (NTS) and vicinity are built upon hydrostratigraphic framework models (HFMs) that utilize the hydrostratigraphic unit (HSU) as the fundamental modeling component. The delineation and three-dimensional (3-D) modeling of HSUs within the highly complex geologic terrain that is the NTS requires a hydrostratigraphic system that is internally consistent, yet flexible enough to account for overlapping model areas, varied geologic terrain, and the development of multiple alternative HFMs. The UGTA CAU-scale hydrostratigraphic system builds on more than 50 years of geologic and hydrologicmore » work in the NTS region. It includes 76 HSUs developed from nearly 300 stratigraphic units that span more than 570 million years of geologic time, and includes rock units as diverse as marine carbonate and siliciclastic rocks, granitic intrusives, rhyolitic lavas and ash-flow tuffs, and alluvial valley-fill deposits. The UGTA CAU-scale hydrostratigraphic system uses a geology-based approach and two-level classification scheme. The first, or lowest, level of the hydrostratigraphic system is the hydrogeologic unit (HGU). Rocks in a model area are first classified as one of ten HGUs based on the rock’s ability to transmit groundwater (i.e., nature of their porosity and permeability), which at the NTS is mainly a function of the rock’s primary lithology, type and degree of postdepositional alteration, and propensity to fracture. The second, or highest, level within the UGTA CAU-scale hydrostratigraphic system is the HSU, which is the fundamental mapping/modeling unit within UGTA CAU-scale HFMs. HSUs are 3-D bodies that are represented in the finite element mesh for the UGTA groundwater modeling process. HSUs are defined systematically by stratigraphically organizing HGUs of similar character into larger HSUs designations. The careful integration of stratigraphic information in the development of HSUs is important to assure individual HSUs are internally consistent, correlatable, and mappable throughout all the model areas.« less

Modeling the Relative Importance of Nutrient and Carbon Loads, Boundary Fluxes, and Sediment Fluxes on Gulf of Mexico Hypoxia.

PubMed

Feist, Timothy J; Pauer, James J; Melendez, Wilson; Lehrter, John C; DePetro, Phillip A; Rygwelski, Kenneth R; Ko, Dong S; Kreis, Russell G

2016-08-16

The Louisiana continental shelf in the northern Gulf of Mexico experiences bottom water hypoxia in the summer. In this study, we applied a biogeochemical model that simulates dissolved oxygen concentrations on the shelf in response to varying riverine nutrient and organic carbon loads, boundary fluxes, and sediment fluxes. Five-year model simulations demonstrated that midsummer hypoxic areas were most sensitive to riverine nutrient loads and sediment oxygen demand from settled organic carbon. Hypoxic area predictions were also sensitive to nutrient and organic carbon fluxes from lateral boundaries. The predicted hypoxic area decreased with decreases in nutrient loads, but the extent of change was influenced by the method used to estimate model boundary concentrations. We demonstrated that modeling efforts to predict changes in hypoxic area on the continental shelf in relationship to changes in nutrients should include representative boundary nutrient and organic carbon concentrations and functions for estimating sediment oxygen demand that are linked to settled organic carbon derived from water-column primary production. On the basis of our model analyses using the most representative boundary concentrations, nutrient loads would need to be reduced by 69% to achieve the Gulf of Mexico Nutrient Task Force Action Plan target hypoxic area of 5000 km(2).

A comparison of self reported air pollution problems and GIS-modeled levels of air pollution in people with and without chronic diseases

PubMed Central

Piro, Fredrik Niclas; Madsen, Christian; Næss, Øyvind; Nafstad, Per; Claussen, Bjørgulf

2008-01-01

Objective To explore various contributors to people's reporting of self reported air pollution problems in area of living, including GIS-modeled air pollution, and to investigate whether those with respiratory or other chronic diseases tend to over-report air pollution problems, compared to healthy people. Methods Cross-sectional data from the Oslo Health Study (2000–2001) were linked with GIS-modeled air pollution data from the Norwegian Institute of Air Research. Multivariate regression analyses were performed. 14 294 persons aged 30, 40, 45, 60 or 75 years old with complete information on modeled and self reported air pollution were included. Results People who reported air pollution problems were exposed to significantly higher GIS-modeled air pollution levels than those who did not report such problems. People with chronic disease, reported significantly more air pollution problems after adjustment for modeled levels of nitrogen dioxides, socio-demographic variables, smoking, depression, dwelling conditions and an area deprivation index, even if they had a non-respiratory disease. No diseases, however, were significantly associated with levels of nitrogen dioxides. Conclusion Self reported air pollution problems in area of living are strongly associated with increased levels of GIS-modeled air pollution. Over and above this, those who report to have a chronic disease tend to report more air pollution problems in area of living, despite no significant difference in air pollution exposure compared to healthy people, and no associations between these diseases and NO2. Studies on the association between self reported air pollution problems and health should be aware of the possibility that disease itself may influence the reporting of air pollution. PMID:18307757

Research Review, 1984

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1986-01-01

A variety of topics relevant to global modeling and simulation are presented. Areas of interest include: (1) analysis and forecast studies; (2) satellite observing systems; (3) analysis and forecast model development; (4) atmospheric dynamics and diagnostic studies; (5) climate/ocean-air interactions; and notes from lectures.

The Ohio River Basin energy facility siting model. Volume 1: Methodology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fowler, G. L.; Bailey, R. E.; Gordon, S. I.; Jansen, S. D.; Randolph, J. C.; Jones, W. W.

1981-04-01

The siting model developed for ORBES is specifically designed for regional policy analysis. The region includes 423 counties in an area that consists of all of Kentucky and substantial portions of Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia.

3D Integrated geophysical-petrological modelling of the Iranian lithosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mousavi, Naeim; Ardestani, Vahid E.; Ebbing, Jörg; Fullea, Javier

2016-04-01

The present-day Iranian Plateau is the result of complex tectonic processes associated with the Arabia-Eurasia Plate convergence at a lithospheric scale. In spite of previous mostly 2D geophysical studies, fundamental questions regarding the deep lithospheric and sub-lithospheric structure beneath Iran remain open. A robust 3D model of the thermochemical lithospheric structure in Iran is an important step toward a better understanding of the geological history and tectonic events in the area. Here, we apply a combined geophysical-petrological methodology (LitMod3D) to investigate the present-day thermal and compositional structure in the crust and upper mantle beneath the Arabia-Eurasia collision zone using a comprehensive variety of constraining data: elevation, surface heat flow, gravity potential fields, satellite gravity gradients, xenoliths and seismic tomography. Different mantle compositions were tested in our model based on local xenolith samples and global data base averages for different tectonothermal ages. A uniform mantle composition fails to explain the observed gravity field, gravity gradients and surface topography. A tectonically regionalized lithospheric mantle compositional model is able to explain all data sets including seismic tomography models. Our preliminary thermochemical lithospheric study constrains the depth to Moho discontinuity and intra crustal geometries including depth to sediments. We also determine the depth to Curie isotherm which is known as the base of magnetized crustal/uppermost mantle bodies. Discrepancies with respect to previous studies include mantle composition and the geometry of Moho and Lithosphere-Asthenosphere Boundary (LAB). Synthetic seismic Vs and Vp velocities match existing seismic tomography models in the area. In this study, depleted mantle compositions are modelled beneath cold and thick lithosphere in Arabian and Turan platforms. A more fertile mantle composition is found in collision zones. Based on our 3D thermochemical model we propose a new scenario to interpret the geodynamical history of area. In this context the present-day central Iran block would be as remain of the older and larger Iranian block present before the onset of Turan platform subduction beneath the Iranian Plateau. Further analysis of sub-lithospheric density anomalies (e.g., subducted slabs) is required to fully understand the geodynamics of the area.

A new contrast-assisted method in microcirculation volumetric flow assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Sheng-Yi; Chen, Yung-Sheng; Yeh, Chih-Kuang

2007-03-01

Microcirculation volumetric flow rate is a significant index in diseases diagnosis and treatment such as diabetes and cancer. In this study, we propose an integrated algorithm to assess microcirculation volumetric flow rate including estimation of blood perfused area and corresponding flow velocity maps based on high frequency destruction/contrast replenishment imaging technique. The perfused area indicates the blood flow regions including capillaries, arterioles and venules. Due to the echo variance changes between ultrasonic contrast agents (UCAs) pre- and post-destruction two images, the perfused area can be estimated by the correlation-based approach. The flow velocity distribution within the perfused area can be estimated by refilling time-intensity curves (TICs) after UCAs destruction. Most studies introduced the rising exponential model proposed by Wei (1998) to fit the TICs. Nevertheless, we found the TICs profile has a great resemblance to sigmoid function in simulations and in vitro experiments results. Good fitting correlation reveals that sigmoid model was more close to actual fact in describing destruction/contrast replenishment phenomenon. We derived that the saddle point of sigmoid model is proportional to blood flow velocity. A strong linear relationship (R = 0.97) between the actual flow velocities (0.4-2.1 mm/s) and the estimated saddle constants was found in M-mode and B-mode flow phantom experiments. Potential applications of this technique include high-resolution volumetric flow rate assessment in small animal tumor and the evaluation of superficial vasculature in clinical studies.

Space-Time Smoothing of Complex Survey Data: Small Area Estimation for Child Mortality

PubMed Central

Mercer, Laina D; Wakefield, Jon; Pantazis, Athena; Lutambi, Angelina M; Masanja, Honorati; Clark, Samuel

2016-01-01

Many people living in low and middle-income countries are not covered by civil registration and vital statistics systems. Consequently, a wide variety of other types of data including many household sample surveys are used to estimate health and population indicators. In this paper we combine data from sample surveys and demographic surveillance systems to produce small area estimates of child mortality through time. Small area estimates are necessary to understand geographical heterogeneity in health indicators when full-coverage vital statistics are not available. For this endeavor spatio-temporal smoothing is beneficial to alleviate problems of data sparsity. The use of conventional hierarchical models requires careful thought since the survey weights may need to be considered to alleviate bias due to non-random sampling and non-response. The application that motivated this work is estimation of child mortality rates in five-year time intervals in regions of Tanzania. Data come from Demographic and Health Surveys conducted over the period 1991–2010 and two demographic surveillance system sites. We derive a variance estimator of under five years child mortality that accounts for the complex survey weighting. For our application, the hierarchical models we consider include random effects for area, time and survey and we compare models using a variety of measures including the conditional predictive ordinate (CPO). The method we propose is implemented via the fast and accurate integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA). PMID:27468328

Effective connectivities of cortical regions for top-down face processing: A Dynamic Causal Modeling study

PubMed Central

Li, Jun; Liu, Jiangang; Liang, Jimin; Zhang, Hongchuan; Zhao, Jizheng; Rieth, Cory A.; Huber, David E.; Li, Wu; Shi, Guangming; Ai, Lin; Tian, Jie; Lee, Kang

2013-01-01

To study top-down face processing, the present study used an experimental paradigm in which participants detected non-existent faces in pure noise images. Conventional BOLD signal analysis identified three regions involved in this illusory face detection. These regions included the left orbitofrontal cortex (OFC) in addition to the right fusiform face area (FFA) and right occipital face area (OFA), both of which were previously known to be involved in both top-down and bottom-up processing of faces. We used Dynamic Causal Modeling (DCM) and Bayesian model selection to further analyze the data, revealing both intrinsic and modulatory effective connectivities among these three cortical regions. Specifically, our results support the claim that the orbitofrontal cortex plays a crucial role in the top-down processing of faces by regulating the activities of the occipital face area, and the occipital face area in turn detects the illusory face features in the visual stimuli and then provides this information to the fusiform face area for further analysis. PMID:20423709

Incorporating Canopy Cover for Airborne-Derived Assessments of Forest Biomass in the Tropical Forests of Cambodia

PubMed Central

Singh, Minerva; Evans, Damian; Coomes, David A.; Friess, Daniel A.; Suy Tan, Boun; Samean Nin, Chan

2016-01-01

This research examines the role of canopy cover in influencing above ground biomass (AGB) dynamics of an open canopied forest and evaluates the efficacy of individual-based and plot-scale height metrics in predicting AGB variation in the tropical forests of Angkor Thom, Cambodia. The AGB was modeled by including canopy cover from aerial imagery alongside with the two different canopy vertical height metrics derived from LiDAR; the plot average of maximum tree height (Max_CH) of individual trees, and the top of the canopy height (TCH). Two different statistical approaches, log-log ordinary least squares (OLS) and support vector regression (SVR), were used to model AGB variation in the study area. Ten different AGB models were developed using different combinations of airborne predictor variables. It was discovered that the inclusion of canopy cover estimates considerably improved the performance of AGB models for our study area. The most robust model was log-log OLS model comprising of canopy cover only (r = 0.87; RMSE = 42.8 Mg/ha). Other models that approximated field AGB closely included both Max_CH and canopy cover (r = 0.86, RMSE = 44.2 Mg/ha for SVR; and, r = 0.84, RMSE = 47.7 Mg/ha for log-log OLS). Hence, canopy cover should be included when modeling the AGB of open-canopied tropical forests. PMID:27176218

Incorporating Canopy Cover for Airborne-Derived Assessments of Forest Biomass in the Tropical Forests of Cambodia.

PubMed

Singh, Minerva; Evans, Damian; Coomes, David A; Friess, Daniel A; Suy Tan, Boun; Samean Nin, Chan

2016-01-01

This research examines the role of canopy cover in influencing above ground biomass (AGB) dynamics of an open canopied forest and evaluates the efficacy of individual-based and plot-scale height metrics in predicting AGB variation in the tropical forests of Angkor Thom, Cambodia. The AGB was modeled by including canopy cover from aerial imagery alongside with the two different canopy vertical height metrics derived from LiDAR; the plot average of maximum tree height (Max_CH) of individual trees, and the top of the canopy height (TCH). Two different statistical approaches, log-log ordinary least squares (OLS) and support vector regression (SVR), were used to model AGB variation in the study area. Ten different AGB models were developed using different combinations of airborne predictor variables. It was discovered that the inclusion of canopy cover estimates considerably improved the performance of AGB models for our study area. The most robust model was log-log OLS model comprising of canopy cover only (r = 0.87; RMSE = 42.8 Mg/ha). Other models that approximated field AGB closely included both Max_CH and canopy cover (r = 0.86, RMSE = 44.2 Mg/ha for SVR; and, r = 0.84, RMSE = 47.7 Mg/ha for log-log OLS). Hence, canopy cover should be included when modeling the AGB of open-canopied tropical forests.

QuakeSim: a Web Service Environment for Productive Investigations with Earth Surface Sensor Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parker, J. W.; Donnellan, A.; Granat, R. A.; Lyzenga, G. A.; Glasscoe, M. T.; McLeod, D.; Al-Ghanmi, R.; Pierce, M.; Fox, G.; Grant Ludwig, L.; Rundle, J. B.

2011-12-01

The QuakeSim science gateway environment includes a visually rich portal interface, web service access to data and data processing operations, and the QuakeTables ontology-based database of fault models and sensor data. The integrated tools and services are designed to assist investigators by covering the entire earthquake cycle of strain accumulation and release. The Web interface now includes Drupal-based access to diverse and changing content, with new ability to access data and data processing directly from the public page, as well as the traditional project management areas that require password access. The system is designed to make initial browsing of fault models and deformation data particularly engaging for new users. Popular data and data processing include GPS time series with data mining techniques to find anomalies in time and space, experimental forecasting methods based on catalogue seismicity, faulted deformation models (both half-space and finite element), and model-based inversion of sensor data. The fault models include the CGS and UCERF 2.0 faults of California and are easily augmented with self-consistent fault models from other regions. The QuakeTables deformation data include the comprehensive set of UAVSAR interferograms as well as a growing collection of satellite InSAR data.. Fault interaction simulations are also being incorporated in the web environment based on Virtual California. A sample usage scenario is presented which follows an investigation of UAVSAR data from viewing as an overlay in Google Maps, to selection of an area of interest via a polygon tool, to fast extraction of the relevant correlation and phase information from large data files, to a model inversion of fault slip followed by calculation and display of a synthetic model interferogram.

Three-dimensional steady-state simulation of flow in the sand-and-gravel aquifer, southern Escambia County, Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Trapp, Henry; Geiger, L.H.

1986-01-01

The sand-and-gravel aquifer is the only freshwater aquifer in southern Escambia County, Florida and is the source of public water supply for the area, including the City of Pensacola. The aquifer was simulated by a two-layer, digital model to provide hydrologic information for water resource planning. The lower layer represents the main-producing zone; the upper layer represents all of the aquifer above the main-producing zone including an unconfined zone and discontinuous perched, confined , and confining zones. The model was designed for steady-state simulation and predicts the response of the aquifer (changes in water levels) to groundwater pumping where steady-state conditions have been reached. Input to the model includes matrices representing constant-head nodes, starting head, transmissivity of layer 1, leakance between layers 1 and 2, lateral hydraulic conductivity of layer 2, and altitude of the base layer 2. The sources of water to the model are from recharge by infiltrated precipitation (estimated from base runoff), inflow across boundaries, and induced recharge from river leakance in periods of prolonged groundwater pumping. Model output includes final head and drawdown for each layer and total values for discharge and recharge in the model area. The model was calibrated for 1972 pumping and tested by simulating pumpages during 1939-40, 1958, and 1977. Sensitivity analyses showed water levels in both layers were most sensitive to changes in the recharge matrix and least sensitive to river leakage. Suggestions for further development of the model include subdivision and expansion of the grid, assignment of storage coefficients for transient simulations, more intensive study of the stream-aquifer relations, and consideration of the effects of infiltration basins on recharge. (Author 's abstract)

Regional impacts of oil and gas development on ozone formation in the western United States.

PubMed

Rodriguez, Marco A; Barna, Michael G; Moore, Tom

2009-09-01

The Intermountain West is currently experiencing increased growth in oil and gas production, which has the potential to affect the visibility and air quality of various Class I areas in the region. The following work presents an analysis of these impacts using the Comprehensive Air Quality Model with extensions (CAMx). CAMx is a state-of-the-science, "one-atmosphere" Eulerian photochemical dispersion model that has been widely used in the assessment of gaseous and particulate air pollution (ozone, fine [PM2.5], and coarse [PM10] particulate matter). Meteorology and emissions inventories developed by the Western Regional Air Partnership Regional Modeling Center for regional haze analysis and planning are used to establish an ozone baseline simulation for the year 2002. The predicted range of values for ozone in the national parks and other Class I areas in the western United States is then evaluated with available observations from the Clean Air Status and Trends Network (CASTNET). This evaluation demonstrates the model's suitability for subsequent planning, sensitivity, and emissions control strategy modeling. Once the ozone baseline simulation has been established, an analysis of the model results is performed to investigate the regional impacts of oil and gas development on the ozone concentrations that affect the air quality of Class I areas. Results indicate that the maximum 8-hr ozone enhancement from oil and gas (9.6 parts per billion [ppb]) could affect southwestern Colorado and northwestern New Mexico. Class I areas in this region that are likely to be impacted by increased ozone include Mesa Verde National Park and Weminuche Wilderness Area in Colorado and San Pedro Parks Wilderness Area, Bandelier Wilderness Area, Pecos Wilderness Area, and Wheeler Peak Wilderness Area in New Mexico.

Electrical-analog-model study of water resources of the Columbus area, Bartholomew County, Indiana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Watkins, Frank A.; Heisel, J.E.

1970-01-01

The Columbus study area is in part of a glacial outwash sand and gravel aquifer that was deposited in a preglacial bedrock valley. The study area extends from the north line of Bartholomew County to the south county line and includes a small part of Jackson County south of Sand Creek and east of the East Fork White River. This report area includes about 100 square miles of the aquifer. In the Columbus area, ground water in the outwash aquifer is unconfined. Results of pumping tests and estimates derived from specific-capacity data indicate that the average horizontal permeability for this aquifer is about 3,500 gallons per day per square foot. An average coefficient of storage of about 0.2 was determined from pumping tests. Transmissibilities range from near zero in some places along the boundary to about 500,000 gallons per day per foot in the thicker parts of the aquifer. About 800,000 acre-feet of water is in storage in the aquifer. This storage is equivalent to an average yield of 34 million gallons per day for about 21 years without recharge. An electrical-analog model was built to analyze the aquifer system and determine the effects of development. Analysis of the model indicates that there is more than enough water to meet the estimated needs of the city of Columbus without seriously depleting the aquifer. Additional withdrawals will affect the flow in the Flatrock River, but if the withdrawals are made south of the city, they will not affect the river any more than present pumping. Future pumping should be confined to the deepest part of the outwash aquifer and (or) to the area adjacent to the streams. On the basis of an hypothesized amount and distribution of pumping, the decline in water levels in the Columbus area as predicted by the model for the period 1970-2015 ranged from about 20 feet in the center of the areas of pumping to 3 feet or less in the areas upstream and downstream from these areas of pumping.

Hydrological Modeling of Storm Water Drainage System due to Frequent and Intense Precipitation of Dhaka city using Storm Water Management Model (SWMM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hossain, S., Jr.

2015-12-01

Rainfall induced flooding during rainy season is a regular phenomenon in Dhaka City. Almost every year a significant part of the city suffers badly with drainage congestion. There are some highly dense areas with lower ground elevation which submerge under water even with an intense precipitation of few hours. The higher areas also suffer with the drainage problem due to inadequate maintenance of the system and encroachment or illegal filling up of the drainage canals and lakes. Most part of the city suffered from long term urban flooding during historical extreme rainfall events in September 2004, 2007 and July 2009. The situation is likely to worsen in the future due to Climate Change, which may lead to more frequent and intense precipitation. To assess the major and minor drainage systems and elements of the urban basins using the hydrodynamic modelling and, through this, identifying the flooding events and areas, taking into account the current situation and future flood or drainage scenarios. Stormwater modeling has a major role in preventing issues such as flash floods and urban water-quality problems. Stormwater models of a lowered spatial resolution would thus appear valuable if only their ability to provide realistic results could be proved. The present scenario of urban morphology of Dhaka city and existing drainage system is complex for hydrological and hydrodynamic modeling. Furthermore limitations of background data and uncertain future urban scenarios may confine the potential outputs of a model. Although several studies were carried out including modeling for drainage master planning, a detail model for whole DAP (Detaile Area Plan) of Dhaka city area is not available. The model developed under this study is covering the existing drainage system in the study area as well as natural flows in the fringe area. A good number of models are available for hydrological and hydraulic analysis of urban areas. These are MIKE 11, MOUSE, HEC-RAS, HEC HMS and EPA SWMM. EPA-SWMM is used for the study area which is mostly developed and consists pipe networks, open channels and water bodies. This study proposes a methodology for rapid catchment delineation and stormwater management model (SWMM) set-up in a large urban area with model calibration and validation.

Non-Susceptible Landslide Areas in Italy and in the Mediterranean Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alvioli, Massimiliano; Ardizzone, Francesca; Guzzetti, Fausto; Marchesini, Ivan; Rossi, Mauro

2014-05-01

Landslide susceptibility is the likelihood of a landslide occurring in a given area. Over the past three decades, researchers, and planning and environmental organisations have worked to assess landslide susceptibility at different geographical scales, and to produce maps portraying landslide susceptibility zonation. Little effort was made to determine where landslides are not expected, where susceptibility is null, or negligible. This is surprising because planners and decision makers are also interesting in knowing where landslides are not foreseen, or cannot occur in an area. We propose a method for the definition of non-susceptible landslide areas, at the synoptic scale. We applied the method in Italy and to the territory surrounding the Mediterranean Sea and we produced two synoptic-scale maps showing areas where landslides are not expected in Italy and in the Mediterranean area. To construct the method we used digital terrain elevation and landslide information. The digital terrain consisted in the 3-arc-second SRTM DEM, the landslide information was obtained for 13 areas in Italy where landslide inventory maps were available to us. We tested three different models to determine the non-susceptible landslide areas, including a linear model (LR), a quantile linear model (QLR), and a quantile non-linear model (QNL). Model performances have been evaluated using independent landslide information represented by the Italian Landslide Inventory (Inventario Fenomeni Franosi in Italia - IFFI). Best results were obtained using the QNL model. The corresponding zonation of non- susceptible landslide areas was intersected in a GIS with geographical census data for Italy. The results show that the 57.5% of the population of Italy (in 2001) was located in areas where landslide susceptibility was expected to be null or negligible, while the remaining 42.5% in areas where some landslide susceptibility was significant or not negligible. We applied the QNL model to the landmasses surrounding the Mediterranean Sea, and we tested the synoptic non- susceptibility zonation using independent landslide information for three study areas in Spain. Results proved that the QNL model was capable of determining where landslide susceptibility is expected to be negligible in the Mediterranean area. We expect our results to be applicable in similar study areas, facilitating the identification of non-susceptible and susceptible landslide areas, at the synoptic scale.

Civil Tiltrotor Feasibility Study for the New York and Washington Terminal Areas

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stouffer, Virginia; Johnson, Jesse; Gribko, Joana; Yackovetsky, Robert (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

NASA tasked LMI to assess the potential contributions of a yet-undeveloped Civil Tiltrotor aircraft (CTR) in improving capacity in the National Airspace System in all weather conditions. The CTRs studied have assumed operating parameters beyond current CTR capabilities. LMI analyzed CTRs three ways: in fast-time terminal area modeling simulations of New York and Washington to determine delay and throughput impacts; in the Integrated Noise Model, to determine local environmental impact; and with an economic model, to determine the price viability of a CTR. The fast-time models encompassed a 250 nmi range and included traffic interactions from local airports. Both the fast-time simulation and the noise model assessed impacts from traffic levels projected for 1999, 2007, and 2017. Results: CTRs can reduce terminal area delays due to concrete congestion in all time frames. The maximum effect, the ratio of CTRs to jets and turboprop aircraft at a subject airport should be optimized. The economic model considered US traffic only and forecasted CTR sales beginning in 2010.

Estimating Rooftop Suitability for PV: A Review of Methods, Patents, and Validation Techniques

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Melius, J.; Margolis, R.; Ong, S.

2013-12-01

A number of methods have been developed using remote sensing data to estimate rooftop area suitable for the installation of photovoltaics (PV) at various geospatial resolutions. This report reviews the literature and patents on methods for estimating rooftop-area appropriate for PV, including constant-value methods, manual selection methods, and GIS-based methods. This report also presents NREL's proposed method for estimating suitable rooftop area for PV using Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data in conjunction with a GIS model to predict areas with appropriate slope, orientation, and sunlight. NREL's method is validated against solar installation data from New Jersey, Colorado, and Californiamore » to compare modeled results to actual on-the-ground measurements.« less

[Vulnerability assessment of eco-environment in Yimeng mountainous area of Shandong Province based on SRP conceptual model].

PubMed

Liu, Zheng-jia; Yu, Xing-xiu; Li, Lei; Huang, Mei

2011-08-01

Based on the ecological sensitivity-resilience-pressure (SRP) conceptual model, and selecting 13 indices including landscape diversity index, soil erosion, and elevation, etc. , the vulnerability of the eco-environment in Yimeng mountainous area of Shandong Province was assessed under the support of GIS and by using principal component analysis and hierarchy analytical method. According to the eco-environmental vulnerability index (EVI) values, the eco-environment vulnerability of study area was classified into 5 levels, i.e., slight (<1.8), light (1.8-2.8), moderate (2.8-3.5), heavy (3.5-4.0), and extreme vulnerability (>4.0). In the study area, moderately vulnerable area occupied 43.3% of the total, while the slightly, lightly, heavily, and extremely vulnerable areas occupied 6.1%, 33.8%, 15.9%, and 0.9%, respectively. The heavily and extremely vulnerable areas mainly located in the topographically complicated hilly area or the hill-plain ecotone with frequent human activities.

Models of Reality: Shaping Thought and Action.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Richardson, Jacques, Ed.

The 21 essays in this two-part book provide conceptual and operational understanding of the nature of models as representations of reality and as tools for description, analysis, interpretation, and forecasting. Topic areas addressed in part 1 (concept) include: the nature of models; the earth as a system; the determination of form; some…

A Team Training Model: A Regional Approach to Changing Economic Conditions. Hard Times: Communities in Transition.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Butler, Lorna Michael; Coppedge, Robert O.

A guide for community leaders, extension staff, and community or rural development practitioners outlines the evolution of a regional training model for community-based problem solving in rural areas experiencing economic decline. The paper discusses the model's underlying concepts and implementation process and includes descriptions of four…

Strategy and the Learning Organization: A Maturity Model for the Formation of Strategy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kenny, John

2006-01-01

Purpose: To develop a theoretical model for strategic change that links learning in an organization to the strategic process. Design/methodology/approach: The model was developed from a review of literature covering a range of areas including: management, strategic planning, psychology of learning and organizational learning. The process of…

Commercial Contract Training, Navy Area VOTEC Support Center (AVSC) Guidelines

DTIC Science & Technology

1975-06-01

either manual or power operated equipment including collators, folders, paper drills, stitchers and cutters, the student will process printed materials...Challenge, model JF or equal). d. Folding machine, size 17-I1/2 x 22-1/2" (Challenge heavy duty model 175 or equal). e. Stitcher , paper (Bostitch model 7

Comparison of AERMOD and WindTrax dispersion models in determining PM10 emission rates from beef cattle feedlots

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Reverse dispersion modeling has been used to determine air emission fluxes from ground-level area sources, including open-lot beef cattle feedlots. This research compared AERMOD, a Gaussian-based and currently the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) preferred regulatory dispersion model, and ...

Computer-implemented security evaluation methods, security evaluation systems, and articles of manufacture

DOEpatents

Muller, George; Perkins, Casey J.; Lancaster, Mary J.; MacDonald, Douglas G.; Clements, Samuel L.; Hutton, William J.; Patrick, Scott W.; Key, Bradley Robert

2015-07-28

Computer-implemented security evaluation methods, security evaluation systems, and articles of manufacture are described. According to one aspect, a computer-implemented security evaluation method includes accessing information regarding a physical architecture and a cyber architecture of a facility, building a model of the facility comprising a plurality of physical areas of the physical architecture, a plurality of cyber areas of the cyber architecture, and a plurality of pathways between the physical areas and the cyber areas, identifying a target within the facility, executing the model a plurality of times to simulate a plurality of attacks against the target by an adversary traversing at least one of the areas in the physical domain and at least one of the areas in the cyber domain, and using results of the executing, providing information regarding a security risk of the facility with respect to the target.

Estimating spatially and temporally varying recharge and runoff from precipitation and urban irrigation in the Los Angeles Basin, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hevesi, Joseph A.; Johnson, Tyler D.

2016-10-17

A daily precipitation-runoff model, referred to as the Los Angeles Basin watershed model (LABWM), was used to estimate recharge and runoff for a 5,047 square kilometer study area that included the greater Los Angeles area and all surface-water drainages potentially contributing recharge to a 1,450 square kilometer groundwater-study area underlying the greater Los Angeles area, referred to as the Los Angeles groundwater-study area. The recharge estimates for the Los Angeles groundwater-study area included spatially distributed recharge in response to the infiltration of precipitation, runoff, and urban irrigation, as well as mountain-front recharge from surface-water drainages bordering the groundwater-study area. The recharge and runoff estimates incorporated a new method for estimating urban irrigation, consisting of residential and commercial landscape watering, based on land use and the percentage of pervious land area.The LABWM used a 201.17-meter gridded discretization of the study area to represent spatially distributed climate and watershed characteristics affecting the surface and shallow sub-surface hydrology for the Los Angeles groundwater study area. Climate data from a local network of 201 monitoring sites and published maps of 30-year-average monthly precipitation and maximum and minimum air temperature were used to develop the climate inputs for the LABWM. Published maps of land use, land cover, soils, vegetation, and surficial geology were used to represent the physical characteristics of the LABWM area. The LABWM was calibrated to available streamflow records at six streamflow-gaging stations.Model results for a 100-year target-simulation period, from water years 1915 through 2014, were used to quantify and evaluate the spatial and temporal variability of water-budget components, including evapotranspiration (ET), recharge, and runoff. The largest outflow of water from the LABWM was ET; the 100-year average ET rate of 362 millimeters per year (mm/yr) accounted for 66 percent of the combined water inflow of 551 mm/yr, including 488 mm/yr from precipitation and 63 mm/yr from urban irrigation. The simulated ET rate varied from a minimum of 0 mm/yr for impervious areas to high values of more than 1,000 mm/yr for many areas, including the south-facing slopes of the San Gabriel Mountains, stream channels underlain by permeable soils and thick root zones, and pervious locations receiving inflows both from urban irrigation and surface water. Runoff was the next largest outflow, averaging 145 mm/yr for the 100-year period, or 26 percent of the combined precipitation and urban-irrigation inflow. Recharge averaged 45 mm/yr, or about 8 percent of the combined inflow from precipitation and urban irrigation.Simulation results indicated that recharge in response to urban irrigation was an important component of spatially distributed recharge, contributing an average of 56 percent of the total recharge to the eight LABWM subdomains containing the Los Angeles groundwater study area. The 100‑year average recharge rate for the eight subdomains was 41 mm/yr, or 8,473 hectare-meters per year (ha-m/yr), with urban irrigation included in the simulation compared to a recharge rate of 18 mm/yr, or 3,741 ha-m/yr, with urban irrigation excluded. In contrast to recharge, the effect of urban irrigation on runoff was slight; runoff was 72,667 ha-m/yr with urban irrigation included compared to 72,618 ha-m/yr with urban irrigation excluded, an increase of only 48 ha-m/yr (about 0.1 percent).Simulation results also indicated that potential recharge from hilly drainages outside of, but bordering and tributary to, the lower-lying area of the Los Angeles groundwater study area, in this study referred to as mountain-front recharge, could provide an important contribution to the total recharge for the groundwater basins. The time-averaged recharge rate was similar to the combined direct and mountain-front recharge components estimated in a previous study and used as input for a calibrated groundwater model. The annual (water year) recharge estimates simulated in this study, however, indicated much greater year-to-year variability, which was dependent on year-to-year variability in the magnitude and distribution of daily precipitation, compared to the previous estimates.

Climate modeling. [for use in understanding earth's radiation budget

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1978-01-01

The requirements for radiation measurements suitable for the understanding, improvement, and verification of models used in performing climate research are considered. Both zonal energy balance models and three dimensional general circulation models are considered, and certain problems are identified as common to all models. Areas of emphasis include regional energy balance observations, spectral band observations, cloud-radiation interaction, and the radiative properties of the earth's surface.

Tim Watkins

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Tim’s expertise and interests lie in the area of air pollution exposure assessment, including ambient air monitoring, personal monitoring, source apportionment, and air quality and exposure modeling.

[Ecotourism exploitation model in Bita Lake Natural Reserve of Yunnan].

PubMed

Yang, G; Wang, Y; Zhong, L

2000-12-01

Bita lake provincial natural reserve is located in Shangri-La region of North-western Yunnan, and was set as a demonstrating area for ecotourism exploitation in 1998. After a year's exploitation construction and half a year's operation as a branch of the 99' Kunming International Horticulture Exposition to accept tourists, it was proved that the ecotourism demonstrating area attained four integrated functions of ecotourism, i.e., tourism, protection, poverty clearing and environment education. Five exploitation and management models including function zoned exploitation model, featured tourism communication model signs system designing model, local Tibetan family reception model and environmental monitoring model, were also successful, which were demonstrated and spreaded to the whole province. Bita lake provincial natural reserve could be a good sample for the ecotourism exploitation natural reserves of the whole country.

Brain connections of words, perceptions and actions: A neurobiological model of spatio-temporal semantic activation in the human cortex.

PubMed

Tomasello, Rosario; Garagnani, Max; Wennekers, Thomas; Pulvermüller, Friedemann

2017-04-01

Neuroimaging and patient studies show that different areas of cortex respectively specialize for general and selective, or category-specific, semantic processing. Why are there both semantic hubs and category-specificity, and how come that they emerge in different cortical regions? Can the activation time-course of these areas be predicted and explained by brain-like network models? In this present work, we extend a neurocomputational model of human cortical function to simulate the time-course of cortical processes of understanding meaningful concrete words. The model implements frontal and temporal cortical areas for language, perception, and action along with their connectivity. It uses Hebbian learning to semantically ground words in aspects of their referential object- and action-related meaning. Compared with earlier proposals, the present model incorporates additional neuroanatomical links supported by connectivity studies and downscaled synaptic weights in order to control for functional between-area differences purely due to the number of in- or output links of an area. We show that learning of semantic relationships between words and the objects and actions these symbols are used to speak about, leads to the formation of distributed circuits, which all include neuronal material in connector hub areas bridging between sensory and motor cortical systems. Therefore, these connector hub areas acquire a role as semantic hubs. By differentially reaching into motor or visual areas, the cortical distributions of the emergent 'semantic circuits' reflect aspects of the represented symbols' meaning, thus explaining category-specificity. The improved connectivity structure of our model entails a degree of category-specificity even in the 'semantic hubs' of the model. The relative time-course of activation of these areas is typically fast and near-simultaneous, with semantic hubs central to the network structure activating before modality-preferential areas carrying semantic information. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Timing and petroleum sources for the Lower Cretaceous Mannville Group oil sands of northern Alberta based on 4-D modeling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Higley, D.K.; Lewan, M.D.; Roberts, L.N.R.; Henry, M.

2009-01-01

The Lower Cretaceous Mannville Group oil sands of northern Alberta have an estimated 270.3 billion m3 (BCM) (1700 billion bbl) of in-place heavy oil and tar. Our study area includes oil sand accumulations and downdip areas that partially extend into the deformation zone in western Alberta. The oil sands are composed of highly biodegraded oil and tar, collectively referred to as bitumen, whose source remains controversial. This is addressed in our study with a four-dimensional (4-D) petroleum system model. The modeled primary trap for generated and migrated oil is subtle structures. A probable seal for the oil sands was a gradual updip removal of the lighter hydrocarbon fractions as migrated oil was progressively biodegraded. This is hypothetical because the modeling software did not include seals resulting from the biodegradation of oil. Although the 4-D model shows that source rocks ranging from the Devonian-Mississippian Exshaw Formation to the Lower Cretaceous Mannville Group coals and Ostracode-zone-contributed oil to Mannville Group reservoirs, source rocks in the Jurassic Fernie Group (Gordondale Member and Poker Chip A shale) were the initial and major contributors. Kinetics associated with the type IIS kerogen in Fernie Group source rocks resulted in the early generation and expulsion of oil, as early as 85 Ma and prior to the generation from the type II kerogen of deeper and older source rocks. The modeled 50% peak transformation to oil was reached about 75 Ma for the Gordondale Member and Poker Chip A shale near the west margin of the study area, and prior to onset about 65 Ma from other source rocks. This early petroleum generation from the Fernie Group source rocks resulted in large volumes of generated oil, and prior to the Laramide uplift and onset of erosion (???58 Ma), which curtailed oil generation from all source rocks. Oil generation from all source rocks ended by 40 Ma. Although the modeled study area did not include possible western contributions of generated oil to the oil sands, the amount generated by the Jurassic source rocks within the study area was 475 BCM (2990 billion bbl). Copyright ?? 2009. The American Association of Petroleum Geologists. All rights reserved.

Delineation and Prediction Uncertainty of Areas Contributing Recharge to Selected Well Fields in Wetland and Coastal Settings, Southern Rhode Island

USGS Publications Warehouse

Friesz, Paul J.

2010-01-01

Areas contributing recharge to four well fields in two study sites in southern Rhode Island were delineated on the basis of steady-state groundwater-flow models representing average hydrologic conditions. The wells are screened in sand and gravel deposits in wetland and coastal settings. The groundwater-flow models were calibrated by inverse modeling using nonlinear regression. Summary statistics from nonlinear regression were used to evaluate the uncertainty associated with the predicted areas contributing recharge to the well fields. In South Kingstown, two United Water Rhode Island well fields are in Mink Brook watershed and near Worden Pond and extensive wetlands. Wetland deposits of peat near the well fields generally range in thickness from 5 to 8 feet. Analysis of water-level drawdowns in a piezometer screened beneath the peat during a 20-day pumping period indicated vertical leakage and a vertical hydraulic conductivity for the peat of roughly 0.01 ft/d. The simulated area contributing recharge for average withdrawals of 2,138 gallons per minute during 2003-07 extended to groundwater divides in mostly till and morainal deposits, and it encompassed 2.30 square miles. Most of a sand and gravel mining operation between the well fields was in the simulated contributing area. For the maximum pumping capacity (5,100 gallons per minute), the simulated area contributing recharge expanded to 5.54 square miles. The well fields intercepted most of the precipitation recharge in Mink Brook watershed and in an adjacent small watershed, and simulated streams ceased to flow. The simulated contributing area to the well fields included an area beneath Worden Pond and a remote, isolated area in upland till on the opposite side of Worden Pond from the well fields. About 12 percent of the pumped water was derived from Worden Pond. In Charlestown, the Central Beach Fire District and the East Beach Water Association well fields are on a small (0.85 square mile) peninsula in a coastal setting. The wells are screened in a coarse-grained, ice-proximal part of a morphosequence with saturated thicknesses generally less than 30 feet on the peninsula. The simulated area contributing recharge for the average withdrawal (16 gallons per minute) during 2003-07 was 0.018 square mile. The contributing area extended southwestward from the well fields to a simulated groundwater mound; it underlay part of a small nearby wetland, and it included isolated areas on the side of the wetland opposite the well fields. For the maximum pumping rate (230 gallons per minute), the simulated area contributing recharge (0.26 square mile) expanded in all directions; it included a till area on the peninsula, and it underlay part of a nearby pond. Because the well fields are screened in a thin aquifer, simulated groundwater traveltimes from recharge locations to the discharging wells were short: 94 percent of the traveltimes were 10 years or less, and the median traveltime was 1.3 years. Model-prediction uncertainty was evaluated using a Monte Carlo analysis; the parameter variance-covariance matrix from nonlinear regression was used to create parameter sets for the analysis. Important parameters for model prediction that could not be estimated by nonlinear regression were incorporated into the variance-covariance matrix. For the South Kingstown study site, observations provided enough information to constrain the uncertainty of these parameters within realistic ranges, but for the Charlestown study site, prior information on parameters was required. Thus, the uncertainty analysis for the South Kingstown study site was an outcome of calibrating the model to available observations, but the Charlestown study site was also dependent on information provided by the modeler. A water budget and model-fit statistical criteria were used to assess parameter sets so that prediction uncertainty was not overestimated. For the scenarios using maximum pumping rates at both study

Developing Spatial Management Options for the Protection of Vulnerable Marine Ecosystems in the South Pacific Ocean Region.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rowden, A. A.; Lundquist, C. J.; Clark, M. R.; Anderson, O. F.; Guinotte, J. M.; Baird, S. J.; Roux, M. J.; Wadhwa, S.

2016-02-01

The South Pacific Regional Fisheries Management Organisation (SPRFMO) Convention includes specific provisions to protect vulnerable marine ecosystems (VMEs). The SPRFMO Commission has determined that the interim measures put in place to protect VMEs would be replaced by an improved system of fishable and closed areas. These closures would effectively represent a preliminary spatial management plan, whereby conservation and management measures are implemented that will result in sustainable fisheries and benthic protection. We used the conservation planning tool Zonation to develop spatial management options that balance the protection of VMEs with utilisation of high value areas for fishing. Input data included habitat suitability maps, and uncertainties associated with these model predictions, for eleven VME indicator taxa (4 Scleractinian coral species; 3 other cnidarian groups (Family Stylasteridae, Order Antipatharia, Order Pennatulacea; 2 classes of sponges (Demospongiae, Hexactinellidae), and 2 echninoderm groups (Crinoidea and Brisingida)) at bathyal depths across the entire SPRFMO area (divided into 1 km2 grid cells); New Zealand fishing catch data (for two different time periods and trawl types); naturalness (represented by proxy variable using the number of trawl tows); and a bioregionalisation scheme. Running various scenario models for spatial planning allowed for the cost to fishing to be determined, in terms of the amount of the trawl catch footprint lost if high priority areas for VME indicator taxa are protected. Generally, the cost to fishing was low given the relatively high proportion of suitable habitat for VME indicator taxa protected. The main outcome of the present study is a demonstration of the practical utility of using available data, including modelled data, and the Zonation conservation planning software tool to develop options for the spatial management of the SPRFMO area.

Preliminary groundwater flow model of the basin-fill aquifers in Detrital, Hualapai, and Sacramento Valleys, Mohave County, northwestern Arizona

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tillman, Fred D.; Garner, Bradley D.; Truini, Margot

2013-01-01

Preliminary numerical models were developed to simulate groundwater flow in the basin-fill alluvium in Detrital, Hualapai, and Sacramento Valleys in northwestern Arizona. The purpose of this exercise was to gather and evaluate available information and data, to test natural‑recharge concepts, and to indicate directions for improving future regional groundwater models of the study area. Both steady-state and transient models were developed with a single layer incorporating vertically averaged hydraulic properties over the model layer. Boundary conditions for the models were constant-head cells along the northern and western edges of the study area, corresponding to the location of the Colorado River, and no-flow boundaries along the bedrock ridges that bound the rest of the study area, except for specified flow where Truxton Wash enters the southern end of Hualapai Valley. Steady-state conditions were simulated for the pre-1935 period, before the construction of Hoover Dam in the northwestern part of the model area. Two recharge scenarios were investigated using the steady-state model—one in which natural aquifer recharge occurs directly in places where water is available from precipitation, and another in which natural aquifer recharge from precipitation occurs in the basin-fill alluvium that drains areas of available water. A transient model with 31 stress periods was constructed to simulate groundwater flow for the period 1935–2010. The transient model incorporates changing Colorado River, Lake Mead, and Lake Mohave water levels and includes time-varying groundwater withdrawals and aquifer recharge. Both the steady-state and transient models were calibrated to available water-level observations in basin-fill alluvium, and simulations approximate observed water-level trends throughout most of the study area.

Development of a Dynamic Traffic Assignment Model for Northern Nevada

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-06-01

The objective of this research is to build and calibrate a DTA model for Northern Nevada (RenoSparks Area) based on the network profile and travel demand information updated to date. The critical procedures include development of consistent and readi...

Simulation of streamflow, evapotranspiration, and groundwater recharge in the middle Nueces River watershed, south Texas, 1961-2008

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dietsch, Benjamin J.; Wehmeyer, Loren L.

2012-01-01

Selected results of the model include streamflow yields for the subwatersheds and water-balance information for the Carrizo–Wilcox aquifer outcrop area. For the entire model domain, the area-weighted mean streamflow yield from 1961 to 2008 was 1.12 inches/year. The mean annual rainfall on the outcrop area during the 1961–2008 simulation period was 21.7 inches. Of this rainfall, an annual mean of 20.1 inches (about 93 percent) was simulated as evapotranspiration, 1.2 inches (about 6 percent) was simulated as groundwater recharge, and 0.5 inches (about 2 percent) was simulated as surface runoff.

Applying downscaled Global Climate Model data to a groundwater model of the Suwannee River Basin, Florida, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Swain, Eric D.; Davis, J. Hal

2016-01-01

The higher future rainfall causes simulated groundwater levels to rise in areas where they are deep and have little ET in either the recent or future case. However, in areas where groundwater levels were originally near the surface, the greater future ET causes groundwater levels to become lower despite the higher projected rainfall. The general implication is that unsaturated zone depth could be more spatially uniform in the future and vegetation that requires a range of conditions (substantially wetter or drier than aver¬age) could be detrimentally affected. This vegetation would include wetland species, especially in areas inland from the coast.

Holographic shell model: Stack data structure inside black holes?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davidson, Aharon

2014-03-01

Rather than tiling the black hole horizon by Planck area patches, we suggest that bits of information inhabit, universally and holographically, the entire black core interior, a bit per a light sheet unit interval of order Planck area difference. The number of distinguishable (tagged by a binary code) configurations, counted within the context of a discrete holographic shell model, is given by the Catalan series. The area entropy formula is recovered, including Cardy's universal logarithmic correction, and the equipartition of mass per degree of freedom is proven. The black hole information storage resembles, in the count procedure, the so-called stack data structure.

Development Strategy for Mobilecommunications Market in Chinese Rural Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Liwei; Zhang, Yanjun; Xu, Liying; Li, Daoliang

Based on full analysis of rural mobile communication market, in order to explore mobile operators in rural areas of information services for sustainable development model, this paper presents three different aspects, including rural mobile communications market demand, the rural market for mobile communications business model and development strategies for rural mobile communications market research business. It supplies some valuable references for operators to develop rural users rapidly, develop the rural market effectively and to get access to develop a broad space.

Space Electrochemical Research and Technology (SERT)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1987-01-01

The conference provided a forum to assess critical needs and technologies for the NASA electrochemical energy conversion and storage program. It was aimed at providing guidance to NASA on the appropriate direction and emphasis of that program. A series of related overviews were presented in the areas of NASA advanced mission models (space stations, low and geosynchronous Earth orbit missions, planetary missions, and space transportation). Papers were presented and workshops conducted in a variety of technical areas, including advanced rechargeables, advanced concepts, critical physical electrochemical issues, and modeling.

Evaluation of various modelling approaches in flood routing simulation and flood area mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papaioannou, George; Loukas, Athanasios; Vasiliades, Lampros; Aronica, Giuseppe

2016-04-01

An essential process of flood hazard analysis and mapping is the floodplain modelling. The selection of the modelling approach, especially, in complex riverine topographies such as urban and suburban areas, and ungauged watersheds may affect the accuracy of the outcomes in terms of flood depths and flood inundation area. In this study, a sensitivity analysis implemented using several hydraulic-hydrodynamic modelling approaches (1D, 2D, 1D/2D) and the effect of modelling approach on flood modelling and flood mapping was investigated. The digital terrain model (DTMs) used in this study was generated from Terrestrial Laser Scanning (TLS) point cloud data. The modelling approaches included 1-dimensional hydraulic-hydrodynamic models (1D), 2-dimensional hydraulic-hydrodynamic models (2D) and the coupled 1D/2D. The 1D hydraulic-hydrodynamic models used were: HECRAS, MIKE11, LISFLOOD, XPSTORM. The 2D hydraulic-hydrodynamic models used were: MIKE21, MIKE21FM, HECRAS (2D), XPSTORM, LISFLOOD and FLO2d. The coupled 1D/2D models employed were: HECRAS(1D/2D), MIKE11/MIKE21(MIKE FLOOD platform), MIKE11/MIKE21 FM(MIKE FLOOD platform), XPSTORM(1D/2D). The validation process of flood extent achieved with the use of 2x2 contingency tables between simulated and observed flooded area for an extreme historical flash flood event. The skill score Critical Success Index was used in the validation process. The modelling approaches have also been evaluated for simulation time and requested computing power. The methodology has been implemented in a suburban ungauged watershed of Xerias river at Volos-Greece. The results of the analysis indicate the necessity of sensitivity analysis application with the use of different hydraulic-hydrodynamic modelling approaches especially for areas with complex terrain.

Predictive Modeling and Mapping of Fish Distributions in Small Streams of the Canadian Rocky Mountain Foothills

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCleary, R. J.; Hassan, M. A.

2006-12-01

An automated procedure was developed to model spatial fish distributions within small streams in the Foothills of Alberta. Native fish populations and their habitats are susceptible to impacts arising from both industrial forestry and rapid development of petroleum resources in the region. Knowledge of fish distributions and the effects of industrial activities on their habitats is required to help conserve native fish populations. Resource selection function (RSF) models were used to explain presence/absence of fish in small streams. Target species were bull trout, rainbow trout and non-native brook trout. Using GIS, the drainage network was divided into reaches with uniform slope and drainage area and then polygons for each reach were created. Predictor variables described stream size, stream energy, climate and land-use. We identified a set of candidate models and selected the best model using a standard Akaike Information Criteria approach. The best models were validated with two external data sets. Drainage area and basin slope parameters were included in all best models. This finding emphasizes the importance of controlling for the energy dimension at the basin scale in investigations into the effects of land-use on aquatic resources in this transitional landscape between the mountains and plains. The best model for bull trout indicated a relation between the presence of artificial migration barriers in downstream areas and the extirpation of the species from headwater reaches. We produced reach-scale maps by species and summarized this information within all small catchments across the 12,000 km2 study area. These maps had included three categories based on predicted probability of capture for individual reaches. The high probability category had a 78 percent accuracy for correctly predicting both fish present and fish not-present reaches. Basin scale maps highlight specific watersheds likely to support both native bull trout and invasive brook trout, while reach-scale maps indicate specific reaches where interactions between these two species are likely to occur. With regional calibration, this automated modeling and mapping procedure could apply in headwater catchments throughout the Rocky Mountain Foothills and other areas where sporadic waterfalls or other natural migration barriers are not an important feature limiting fish distribution.

Leaf area index, biomass carbon and growth rate of radiata pine genetic types and relationships with LiDAR

Treesearch

Peter N. Beets; Stephen Reutebuch; Mark O. Kimberley; Graeme R. Oliver; Stephen H. Pearce; Robert J. McGaughey

2011-01-01

Relationships between discrete-return light detection and ranging (LiDAR) data and radiata pine leaf area index (LAI), stem volume, above ground carbon, and carbon sequestration were developed using 10 plots with directly measured biomass and leaf area data, and 36 plots with modelled carbon data. The plots included a range of genetic types established on north- and...

Overlooked habitat of a vulnerable gorgonian revealed in the Mediterranean and Eastern Atlantic by ecological niche modelling

PubMed Central

Boavida, Joana; Assis, Jorge; Silva, Inga; Serrão, Ester A.

2016-01-01

Factors shaping the distribution of mesophotic octocorals (30–200 m depth) remain poorly understood, potentially leaving overlooked coral areas, particularly near their bathymetric and geographic distributional limits. Yet, detailed knowledge about habitat requirements is crucial for conservation of sensitive gorgonians. Here we use Ecological Niche Modelling (ENM) relating thirteen environmental predictors and a highly comprehensive presence dataset, enhanced by SCUBA diving surveys, to investigate the suitable habitat of an important structuring species, Paramuricea clavata, throughout its distribution (Mediterranean and adjacent Atlantic). Models showed that temperature (11.5–25.5 °C) and slope are the most important predictors carving the niche of P. clavata. Prediction throughout the full distribution (TSS 0.9) included known locations of P. clavata alongside with previously unknown or unreported sites along the coast of Portugal and Africa, including seamounts. These predictions increase the understanding of the potential distribution for the northern Mediterranean and indicate suitable hard bottom areas down to >150 m depth. Poorly sampled habitats with predicted presence along Algeria, Alboran Sea and adjacent Atlantic coasts encourage further investigation. We propose that surveys of target areas from the predicted distribution map, together with local expert knowledge, may lead to discoveries of new P. clavata sites and identify priority conservation areas. PMID:27841263

Petroleum system modeling of the western Canada sedimentary basin - isopach grid files

USGS Publications Warehouse

Higley, Debra K.; Henry, Mitchell E.; Roberts, Laura N.R.

2005-01-01

This publication contains zmap-format grid files of isopach intervals that represent strata associated with Devonian to Holocene petroleum systems of the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin (WCSB) of Alberta, British Columbia, and Saskatchewan, Canada. Also included is one grid file that represents elevations relative to sea level of the top of the Lower Cretaceous Mannville Group. Vertical and lateral scales are in meters. The age range represented by the stratigraphic intervals comprising the grid files is 373 million years ago (Ma) to present day. File names, age ranges, formation intervals, and primary petroleum system elements are listed in table 1. Metadata associated with this publication includes information on the study area and the zmap-format files. The digital files listed in table 1 were compiled as part of the Petroleum Processes Research Project being conducted by the Central Energy Resources Team of the U.S. Geological Survey, which focuses on modeling petroleum generation, 3 migration, and accumulation through time for petroleum systems of the WCSB. Primary purposes of the WCSB study are to Construct the 1-D/2-D/3-D petroleum system models of the WCSB. Actual boundaries of the study area are documented within the metadata; excluded are northern Alberta and eastern Saskatchewan, but fringing areas of the United States are included.Publish results of the research and the grid files generated for use in the 3-D model of the WCSB.Evaluate the use of petroleum system modeling in assessing undiscovered oil and gas resources for geologic provinces across the World.

Prediction of acute kidney injury within 30 days of cardiac surgery.

PubMed

Ng, Shu Yi; Sanagou, Masoumeh; Wolfe, Rory; Cochrane, Andrew; Smith, Julian A; Reid, Christopher Michael

2014-06-01

To predict acute kidney injury after cardiac surgery. The study included 28,422 cardiac surgery patients who had had no preoperative renal dialysis from June 2001 to June 2009 in 18 hospitals. Logistic regression analyses were undertaken to identify the best combination of risk factors for predicting acute kidney injury. Two models were developed, one including the preoperative risk factors and another including the pre-, peri-, and early postoperative risk factors. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was calculated, using split-sample internal validation, to assess model discrimination. The incidence of acute kidney injury was 5.8% (1642 patients). The mortality for patients who experienced acute kidney injury was 17.4% versus 1.6% for patients who did not. On validation, the area under the curve for the preoperative model was 0.77, and the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit P value was .06. For the postoperative model area under the curve was 0.81 and the Hosmer-Lemeshow P value was .6. Both models had good discrimination and acceptable calibration. Acute kidney injury after cardiac surgery can be predicted using preoperative risk factors alone or, with greater accuracy, using pre-, peri-, and early postoperative risk factors. The ability to identify high-risk individuals can be useful in preoperative patient management and for recruitment of appropriate patients to clinical trials. Prediction in the early stages of postoperative care can guide subsequent intensive care of patients and could also be the basis of a retrospective performance audit tool. Copyright © 2014 The American Association for Thoracic Surgery. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

ALGE3D: A Three-Dimensional Transport Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maze, G. M.

2017-12-01

Of the top 10 most populated US cities from a 2015 US Census Bureau estimate, 7 of the cities are situated near the ocean, a bay, or on one of the Great Lakes. A contamination of the water ways in the United States could be devastating to the economy (through tourism and industries such as fishing), public health (from direct contact, or contaminated drinking water), and in some cases even infrastructure (water treatment plants). Current national response models employed by emergency response agencies have well developed models to simulate the effects of hazardous contaminants in riverine systems that are primarily driven by one-dimensional flows; however in more complex systems, such as tidal estuaries, bays, or lakes, a more complex model is needed. While many models exist, none are capable of quick deployment in emergency situations that could contain a variety of release situations including a mixture of both particulate and dissolved chemicals in a complex flow area. ALGE3D, developed at the Department of Energy's (DOE) Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL), is a three-dimensional hydrodynamic code which solves the momentum, mass, and energy conservation equations to predict the movement and dissipation of thermal or dissolved chemical plumes discharged into cooling lakes, rivers, and estuaries. ALGE3D is capable of modeling very complex flows, including areas with tidal flows which include wetting and drying of land. Recent upgrades have increased the capabilities including the transport of particulate tracers, allowing for more complete modeling of the transport of pollutants. In addition the model is capable of coupling with a one-dimension riverine transport model or a two-dimension atmospheric deposition model in the event that a contamination event occurs upstream or upwind of the water body.

A multilevel model for cardiovascular disease prevalence in the US and its application to micro area prevalence estimates.

PubMed

Congdon, Peter

2009-01-30

Estimates of disease prevalence for small areas are increasingly required for the allocation of health funds according to local need. Both individual level and geographic risk factors are likely to be relevant to explaining prevalence variations, and in turn relevant to the procedure for small area prevalence estimation. Prevalence estimates are of particular importance for major chronic illnesses such as cardiovascular disease. A multilevel prevalence model for cardiovascular outcomes is proposed that incorporates both survey information on patient risk factors and the effects of geographic location. The model is applied to derive micro area prevalence estimates, specifically estimates of cardiovascular disease for Zip Code Tabulation Areas in the USA. The model incorporates prevalence differentials by age, sex, ethnicity and educational attainment from the 2005 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System survey. Influences of geographic context are modelled at both county and state level, with the county effects relating to poverty and urbanity. State level influences are modelled using a random effects approach that allows both for spatial correlation and spatial isolates. To assess the importance of geographic variables, three types of model are compared: a model with person level variables only; a model with geographic effects that do not interact with person attributes; and a full model, allowing for state level random effects that differ by ethnicity. There is clear evidence that geographic effects improve statistical fit. Geographic variations in disease prevalence partly reflect the demographic composition of area populations. However, prevalence variations may also show distinct geographic 'contextual' effects. The present study demonstrates by formal modelling methods that improved explanation is obtained by allowing for distinct geographic effects (for counties and states) and for interaction between geographic and person variables. Thus an appropriate methodology to estimate prevalence at small area level should include geographic effects as well as person level demographic variables.

A multilevel model for cardiovascular disease prevalence in the US and its application to micro area prevalence estimates

PubMed Central

Congdon, Peter

2009-01-01

Background Estimates of disease prevalence for small areas are increasingly required for the allocation of health funds according to local need. Both individual level and geographic risk factors are likely to be relevant to explaining prevalence variations, and in turn relevant to the procedure for small area prevalence estimation. Prevalence estimates are of particular importance for major chronic illnesses such as cardiovascular disease. Methods A multilevel prevalence model for cardiovascular outcomes is proposed that incorporates both survey information on patient risk factors and the effects of geographic location. The model is applied to derive micro area prevalence estimates, specifically estimates of cardiovascular disease for Zip Code Tabulation Areas in the USA. The model incorporates prevalence differentials by age, sex, ethnicity and educational attainment from the 2005 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System survey. Influences of geographic context are modelled at both county and state level, with the county effects relating to poverty and urbanity. State level influences are modelled using a random effects approach that allows both for spatial correlation and spatial isolates. Results To assess the importance of geographic variables, three types of model are compared: a model with person level variables only; a model with geographic effects that do not interact with person attributes; and a full model, allowing for state level random effects that differ by ethnicity. There is clear evidence that geographic effects improve statistical fit. Conclusion Geographic variations in disease prevalence partly reflect the demographic composition of area populations. However, prevalence variations may also show distinct geographic 'contextual' effects. The present study demonstrates by formal modelling methods that improved explanation is obtained by allowing for distinct geographic effects (for counties and states) and for interaction between geographic and person variables. Thus an appropriate methodology to estimate prevalence at small area level should include geographic effects as well as person level demographic variables. PMID:19183458

Optimal weighted combinatorial forecasting model of QT dispersion of ECGs in Chinese adults.

PubMed

Wen, Zhang; Miao, Ge; Xinlei, Liu; Minyi, Cen

2016-07-01

This study aims to provide a scientific basis for unifying the reference value standard of QT dispersion of ECGs in Chinese adults. Three predictive models including regression model, principal component model, and artificial neural network model are combined to establish the optimal weighted combination model. The optimal weighted combination model and single model are verified and compared. Optimal weighted combinatorial model can reduce predicting risk of single model and improve the predicting precision. The reference value of geographical distribution of Chinese adults' QT dispersion was precisely made by using kriging methods. When geographical factors of a particular area are obtained, the reference value of QT dispersion of Chinese adults in this area can be estimated by using optimal weighted combinatorial model and reference value of the QT dispersion of Chinese adults anywhere in China can be obtained by using geographical distribution figure as well.

Prediction of lake depth across a 17-state region in the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Oliver, Samantha K.; Soranno, Patricia A.; Fergus, C. Emi; Wagner, Tyler; Winslow, Luke A.; Scott, Caren E.; Webster, Katherine E.; Downing, John A.; Stanley, Emily H.

2016-01-01

Lake depth is an important characteristic for understanding many lake processes, yet it is unknown for the vast majority of lakes globally. Our objective was to develop a model that predicts lake depth using map-derived metrics of lake and terrestrial geomorphic features. Building on previous models that use local topography to predict lake depth, we hypothesized that regional differences in topography, lake shape, or sedimentation processes could lead to region-specific relationships between lake depth and the mapped features. We therefore used a mixed modeling approach that included region-specific model parameters. We built models using lake and map data from LAGOS, which includes 8164 lakes with maximum depth (Zmax) observations. The model was used to predict depth for all lakes ≥4 ha (n = 42 443) in the study extent. Lake surface area and maximum slope in a 100 m buffer were the best predictors of Zmax. Interactions between surface area and topography occurred at both the local and regional scale; surface area had a larger effect in steep terrain, so large lakes embedded in steep terrain were much deeper than those in flat terrain. Despite a large sample size and inclusion of regional variability, model performance (R2 = 0.29, RMSE = 7.1 m) was similar to other published models. The relative error varied by region, however, highlighting the importance of taking a regional approach to lake depth modeling. Additionally, we provide the largest known collection of observed and predicted lake depth values in the United States.

Assessing shortfalls and complementary conservation areas for national plant biodiversity in South Korea.

PubMed

Choe, Hyeyeong; Thorne, James H; Huber, Patrick R; Lee, Dongkun; Quinn, James F

2018-01-01

Protected areas (PAs) are often considered the most important biodiversity conservation areas in national plans, but PAs often do not represent national-scale biodiversity. We evaluate the current conservation status of plant biodiversity within current existing PAs, and identify potential additional PAs for South Korea. We modeled species ranges for 2,297 plant species using Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines and compared the level of mean range representation in South Korea's existing PAs, which comprise 5.7% of the country's mainland area, with an equal-area alternative PA strategy selected with the reserve algorithm Marxan. We also used Marxan to model two additional conservation scenarios that add lands to approach the Aichi Biodiversity Target objectives (17% of the country). Existing PAs in South Korea contain an average of 6.3% of each plant species' range, compared to 5.9% in the modeled equal-area alternative. However, existing PAs primarily represent a high percentage of the ranges for high-elevation and small range size species. The additional PAs scenario that adds lands to the existing PAs covers 14,587.55 km2, and would improve overall plant range representation to a mean of 16.8% of every species' range. The other additional PAs scenario, which selects new PAs from all lands and covers 13,197.35 km2, would improve overall plant range representation to a mean of 13.5%. Even though the additional PAs that includes existing PAs represents higher percentages of species' ranges, it is missing many biodiversity hotspots in non-mountainous areas and the additional PAs without locking in the existing PAs represent almost all species' ranges evenly, including low-elevation ones with larger ranges. Some priority conservation areas we identified are expansions of, or near, existing PAs, especially in northeastern and southern South Korea. However, lowland coastal areas and areas surrounding the capital city, Seoul, are also critical for biodiversity conservation in South Korea.

Assessing shortfalls and complementary conservation areas for national plant biodiversity in South Korea

PubMed Central

Thorne, James H.; Huber, Patrick R.; Lee, Dongkun; Quinn, James F.

2018-01-01

Protected areas (PAs) are often considered the most important biodiversity conservation areas in national plans, but PAs often do not represent national-scale biodiversity. We evaluate the current conservation status of plant biodiversity within current existing PAs, and identify potential additional PAs for South Korea. We modeled species ranges for 2,297 plant species using Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines and compared the level of mean range representation in South Korea’s existing PAs, which comprise 5.7% of the country’s mainland area, with an equal-area alternative PA strategy selected with the reserve algorithm Marxan. We also used Marxan to model two additional conservation scenarios that add lands to approach the Aichi Biodiversity Target objectives (17% of the country). Existing PAs in South Korea contain an average of 6.3% of each plant species’ range, compared to 5.9% in the modeled equal-area alternative. However, existing PAs primarily represent a high percentage of the ranges for high-elevation and small range size species. The additional PAs scenario that adds lands to the existing PAs covers 14,587.55 km2, and would improve overall plant range representation to a mean of 16.8% of every species’ range. The other additional PAs scenario, which selects new PAs from all lands and covers 13,197.35 km2, would improve overall plant range representation to a mean of 13.5%. Even though the additional PAs that includes existing PAs represents higher percentages of species’ ranges, it is missing many biodiversity hotspots in non-mountainous areas and the additional PAs without locking in the existing PAs represent almost all species’ ranges evenly, including low-elevation ones with larger ranges. Some priority conservation areas we identified are expansions of, or near, existing PAs, especially in northeastern and southern South Korea. However, lowland coastal areas and areas surrounding the capital city, Seoul, are also critical for biodiversity conservation in South Korea. PMID:29474355

Ecological-niche modeling and prioritization of conservation-area networks for Mexican herpetofauna.

PubMed

Urbina-Cardona, J Nicolás; Flores-Villela, Oscar

2010-08-01

One of the most important tools in conservation biology is information on the geographic distribution of species and the variables determining those patterns. We used maximum-entropy niche modeling to run distribution models for 222 amphibian and 371 reptile species (49% endemics and 27% threatened) for which we had 34,619 single geographic records. The planning region is in southeastern Mexico, is 20% of the country's area, includes 80% of the country's herpetofauna, and lacks an adequate protected-area system. We used probabilistic data to build distribution models of herpetofauna for use in prioritizing conservation areas for three target groups (all species and threatened and endemic species). The accuracy of species-distribution models was better for endemic and threatened species than it was for all species. Forty-seven percent of the region has been deforested and additional conservation areas with 13.7% to 88.6% more native vegetation (76% to 96% of the areas are outside the current protected-area system) are needed. There was overlap in 26 of the main selected areas in the conservation-area network prioritized to preserve the target groups, and for all three target groups the proportion of vegetation types needed for their conservation was constant: 30% pine and oak forests, 22% tropical evergreen forest, 17% low deciduous forest, and 8% montane cloud forests. The fact that different groups of species require the same proportion of habitat types suggests that the pine and oak forests support the highest proportion of endemic and threatened species and should therefore be given priority over other types of vegetation for inclusion in the protected areas of southeastern Mexico.

Experimental study on interfacial area transport in downward two-phase flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Guanyi

In view of the importance of two group interfacial area transport equations and lack of corresponding accurate downward flow database that can reveal two group interfacial area transport, a systematic database for adiabatic, air-water, vertically downward two-phase flow in a round pipe with inner diameter of 25.4 mm was collected to gain an insight of interfacial structure and provide benchmarking data for two-group interfacial area transport models. A four-sensor conductivity probe was used to measure the local two phase flow parameters and data was collected with data sampling frequency much higher than conventional data sampling frequency to ensure the accuracy. Axial development of local flow parameter profiles including void fraction, interfacial area concentration, and Sauter mean diameter were presented. Drastic inter-group transfer of void fraction and interfacial area was observed at bubbly to slug transition flow. And the wall peaked interfacial area concentration profiles were observed in churn-turbulent flow. The importance of local data about these phenomenon on flow structure prediction and interfacial area transport equation benchmark was analyzed. Bedsides, in order to investigate the effect of inlet conditions, all experiments were repeated after installing the flow straightening facility, and the results were briefly analyzed. In order to check the accuracy of current data, the experiment results were cross-checked with rotameter measurement as well as drift-flux model prediction, the averaged error is less than 15%. Current models for two-group interfacial area transport equation were evaluated using these data. The results show that two-group interfacial area transport equations with current models can predict most flow conditions with error less than 20%, except some bubbly to slug transition flow conditions and some churn-turbulent flow conditions. The disagreement between models and experiments could result from underestimate of inter-group void transfer.

Technology Transfer: A Third World Perspective.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Akubue, Anthony I.

2002-01-01

Technology transfer models are based on assumptions that do not reflect Third-World realities. Obstacles to building indigenous technology capacity include multinational corporations' control of innovations, strings attached to foreign aid, and indigenous reluctance to undertake research. Four areas of development include foreign direct…

Computational Modeling of Space Physiology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lewandowski, Beth E.; Griffin, Devon W.

2016-01-01

The Digital Astronaut Project (DAP), within NASAs Human Research Program, develops and implements computational modeling for use in the mitigation of human health and performance risks associated with long duration spaceflight. Over the past decade, DAP developed models to provide insights into space flight related changes to the central nervous system, cardiovascular system and the musculoskeletal system. Examples of the models and their applications include biomechanical models applied to advanced exercise device development, bone fracture risk quantification for mission planning, accident investigation, bone health standards development, and occupant protection. The International Space Station (ISS), in its role as a testing ground for long duration spaceflight, has been an important platform for obtaining human spaceflight data. DAP has used preflight, in-flight and post-flight data from short and long duration astronauts for computational model development and validation. Examples include preflight and post-flight bone mineral density data, muscle cross-sectional area, and muscle strength measurements. Results from computational modeling supplement space physiology research by informing experimental design. Using these computational models, DAP personnel can easily identify both important factors associated with a phenomenon and areas where data are lacking. This presentation will provide examples of DAP computational models, the data used in model development and validation, and applications of the model.

Tests on thirteen navy type model propellers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Durand, W F

1927-01-01

The tests on these model propellers were undertaken for the purpose of determining the performance coefficients and characteristics for certain selected series of propellers of form and type as commonly used in recent navy designs. The first series includes seven propellers of pitch ratio varying by 0.10 to 1.10, the area, form of blade, thickness, etc., representing an arbitrary standard propeller which had shown good results. The second series covers changes in thickness of blade section, other things equal, and the third series, changes in blade area, other things equal. These models are all of 36-inch diameter. Propellers A to G form the series on pitch ratio, C, N. I. J the series on thickness of section, and K, M, C, L the series on area. (author)

Tracking upwind areas associated with enhanced chlorophyll-a concentrations to examine the impact of atmospheric deposition on phytoplankton production in the Sargasso and Mediterranean Seas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, T. W.

2016-12-01

Transports of terrestrial materials through the atmosphere and their depositions influence ocean biogeochemistry. In particular, growth of phytoplankton in oligotrophic oceans may be stimulated by the atmospheric deposition of nutrients (e.g. reactive nitrogen species and iron). The Sargasso and Mediterranean Seas are two oligotrophic oceans that may show the enhancements in phytoplankton production by the atmospheric deposition, because their upwind areas include African deserts and urban areas of the United States and the Europe. To test this hypothesis, time series of chlorophyll-a concentration (from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) were combined with air mass back trajectory (from Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory Model) to perform the Concentration-Weighted Trajectory (CWT) receptor model. In this model, all individual endpoints of a single air mass back trajectory are associated with a chlorophyll-a concentration measured at the starting time of air mass back trajectory. The upwind areas showing relatively high CWT values represent they are mostly associated with enhanced chlorophyll-a concentration and contribute to phytoplankton production. We carried out the CWT in 65 and 188 stations for the Mediterranean and Saragossa Seas, respectively. The results showed relatively high CWT values in the North American and northern African continents. However, wind usually flows from these continents to ocean during cold months when chlorophyll-a concentrations are generally high. Thus the results appeared to largely originate from seasonal cycle of ocean mixed layer depth. To minimize the effect of seasonal variations, we divided chlorophyll-a concentrations by monthly climatology, which resulted in much reduced contrast in the CWT values between land and ocean areas. However, some upwind areas including the northern African desert regions still showed relatively high CWT values, maybe implying deposition-induced stimulation of phytoplankton production. We also performed CWT receptor model using sea surface temperature instead of chlorophyll-a concentration to see the effect of ocean mixed layer depth. These results will be included in the presentation.

Incorporating GIS and remote sensing for census population disaggregation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Shuo-Sheng'derek'

Census data are the primary source of demographic data for a variety of researches and applications. For confidentiality issues and administrative purposes, census data are usually released to the public by aggregated areal units. In the United States, the smallest census unit is census blocks. Due to data aggregation, users of census data may have problems in visualizing population distribution within census blocks and estimating population counts for areas not coinciding with census block boundaries. The main purpose of this study is to develop methodology for estimating sub-block areal populations and assessing the estimation errors. The City of Austin, Texas was used as a case study area. Based on tax parcel boundaries and parcel attributes derived from ancillary GIS and remote sensing data, detailed urban land use classes were first classified using a per-field approach. After that, statistical models by land use classes were built to infer population density from other predictor variables, including four census demographic statistics (the Hispanic percentage, the married percentage, the unemployment rate, and per capita income) and three physical variables derived from remote sensing images and building footprints vector data (a landscape heterogeneity statistics, a building pattern statistics, and a building volume statistics). In addition to statistical models, deterministic models were proposed to directly infer populations from building volumes and three housing statistics, including the average space per housing unit, the housing unit occupancy rate, and the average household size. After population models were derived or proposed, how well the models predict populations for another set of sample blocks was assessed. The results show that deterministic models were more accurate than statistical models. Further, by simulating the base unit for modeling from aggregating blocks, I assessed how well the deterministic models estimate sub-unit-level populations. I also assessed the aggregation effects and the resealing effects on sub-unit estimates. Lastly, from another set of mixed-land-use sample blocks, a mixed-land-use model was derived and compared with a residential-land-use model. The results of per-field land use classification are satisfactory with a Kappa accuracy statistics of 0.747. Model Assessments by land use show that population estimates for multi-family land use areas have higher errors than those for single-family land use areas, and population estimates for mixed land use areas have higher errors than those for residential land use areas. The assessments of sub-unit estimates using a simulation approach indicate that smaller areas show higher estimation errors, estimation errors do not relate to the base unit size, and resealing improves all levels of sub-unit estimates.

Hydrogeology of, simulation of groundwater flow in, and potential effects of sea-level rise on the Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system in the vicinity of Edwin B. Forsythe National Wildlife Refuge, New Jersey

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fiore, Alex R.; Voronin, Lois M.; Wieben, Christine M.

2018-03-19

The Edwin B. Forsythe National Wildlife Refuge encompasses more than 47,000 acres of New Jersey coastal habitats, including salt marshes, freshwater wetlands, tidal wetlands, barrier beaches, woodlands, and swamps. The refuge is along the Atlantic Flyway and provides breeding habitat for fish, migratory birds, and other wildlife species. The refuge area may be threatened by global climate change, including sea-level rise (SLR).The Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system underlies the Edwin B. Forsythe National Wildlife Refuge. Groundwater is an important source of freshwater flow into the refuge, but information about the interaction of surface water and groundwater in the refuge area and the potential effects of SLR on the underlying aquifer system is limited. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS), conducted a hydrologic assessment of the refuge in New Jersey and developed a groundwater flow model to improve understanding of the geohydrology of the refuge area and to serve as a tool to evaluate changes in groundwater-level altitudes that may result from a rise in sea level.Groundwater flow simulations completed for this study include a calibrated baseline simulation that represents 2005–15 hydraulic conditions and three SLR scenarios―20, 40, and 60 centimeters (cm) (0.656, 1.312, and 1.968 feet, respectively). Results of the three SLR simulations indicate that the water table in the unconfined Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system in the refuge area will rise, resulting in increased discharge of fresh groundwater to freshwater wetlands and streams. As sea level rises, simulated groundwater discharge to the salt marsh, bay, and ocean is projected to decrease. Flow from the salt marsh, bay, and ocean to the overlying surface water is projected to increase as sea level rises.The simulated movement of the freshwater-seawater interface as sea level rises depends on the hydraulic-head gradient. In the center of the Forsythe model area, topographic relief is 23 feet (ft) and the hydraulic-head gradient is 0.0033. In the center of the Forsythe model area, the simulated interface moved inland about 600 ft and downward about 15 ft from the baseline simulation to scenario 3 as a result of a SLR of 60 cm. In the southern part of the Forsythe model area, the topography is flatter (relief of 8 ft) and the hydraulic-head gradient is smaller (0.001). In the southern part of the Forsythe model study area, the simulated interface in this area is projected to move inland about 200 ft from the baseline simulation to scenario 3 and does not move downward.

Modeling the Impact of CINO2 on Ozone Formation in the Houston Area

EPA Science Inventory

During the summer of 2006, nitryl chloride (ClNO₂) mixing ratios of over 1 ppb were measured in the Houston urban area. Nitryl chloride is potentially important to atmospheric chemistry in urban environments because its photolysis products include both NO₂ a...

A Forest Landscape Visualization System

Treesearch

Tim McDonald; Bryce Stokes

1998-01-01

A forest landscape visualization system was developed and used in creating realistic images depicting how an area might appear if harvested. The system uses a ray-tracing renderer to draw model trees on a virtual landscape. The system includes components to create landscape surfaces from digital elevation data, populate/cut trees within (polygonal) areas, and convert...

76 FR 58210 - Approval and Promulgation of Implementation Plans and Designation of Areas for Air Quality...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-09-20

... Nonattainment Area to Attainment AGENCY: Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). ACTION: Proposed rule. SUMMARY... four separate but related actions. First, EPA is proposing to approve the December 18, 2009, PM 2.5 redesignation request, including the December 22, 2010, Motor Vehicle Emission Simulator (MOVES) mobile model...

A modeling analysis program for the JPL Table Mountain Io sodium cloud data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smyth, W. H.; Goldberg, B. A.

1986-01-01

Progress and achievements in the second year are discussed in three main areas: (1) data quality review of the 1981 Region B/C images; (2) data processing activities; and (3) modeling activities. The data quality review revealed that almost all 1981 Region B/C images are of sufficient quality to be valuable in the analyses of the JPL data set. In the second area, the major milestone reached was the successful development and application of complex image-processing software required to render the original image data suitable for modeling analysis studies. In the third area, the lifetime description of sodium atoms in the planet magnetosphere was improved in the model to include the offset dipole nature of the magnetic field as well as an east-west electric field. These improvements are important in properly representing the basic morphology as well as the east-west asymmetries of the sodium cloud.

The development of a probabilistic approach to forecast coastal change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lentz, Erika E.; Hapke, Cheryl J.; Rosati, Julie D.; Wang, Ping; Roberts, Tiffany M.

2011-01-01

This study demonstrates the applicability of a Bayesian probabilistic model as an effective tool in predicting post-storm beach changes along sandy coastlines. Volume change and net shoreline movement are modeled for two study sites at Fire Island, New York in response to two extratropical storms in 2007 and 2009. Both study areas include modified areas adjacent to unmodified areas in morphologically different segments of coast. Predicted outcomes are evaluated against observed changes to test model accuracy and uncertainty along 163 cross-shore transects. Results show strong agreement in the cross validation of predictions vs. observations, with 70-82% accuracies reported. Although no consistent spatial pattern in inaccurate predictions could be determined, the highest prediction uncertainties appeared in locations that had been recently replenished. Further testing and model refinement are needed; however, these initial results show that Bayesian networks have the potential to serve as important decision-support tools in forecasting coastal change.

Simulation in Otolaryngology: A teaching and training tool.

PubMed

Thone, Natalie; Winter, Matías; García-Matte, Raimundo J; González, Claudia

Simulation in medical education is an effective method of teaching and learning, allowing standardisation of the learning and teaching processes without compromising the patient. Different types of simulation exist within subspecialty areas of Otolaryngology. Models that have been developed include phantom imaging, dummy patients, virtual models and animal models that are used to teach and practice different skills. Each model has advantages and disadvantages, where virtual reality is an emerging model with a promising future. However, there is still a need for further development of simulation in the area of Otolaryngology. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier España, S.L.U. and Sociedad Española de Otorrinolaringología y Cirugía de Cabeza y Cuello. All rights reserved.

Multi-Physics MRI-Based Two-Layer Fluid-Structure Interaction Anisotropic Models of Human Right and Left Ventricles with Different Patch Materials: Cardiac Function Assessment and Mechanical Stress Analysis

PubMed Central

Tang, Dalin; Yang, Chun; Geva, Tal; Gaudette, Glenn; del Nido, Pedro J.

2011-01-01

Multi-physics right and left ventricle (RV/LV) fluid-structure interaction (FSI) models were introduced to perform mechanical stress analysis and evaluate the effect of patch materials on RV function. The FSI models included three different patch materials (Dacron scaffold, treated pericardium, and contracting myocardium), two-layer construction, fiber orientation, and active anisotropic material properties. The models were constructed based on cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) images acquired from a patient with severe RV dilatation and solved by ADINA. Our results indicate that the patch model with contracting myocardium leads to decreased stress level in the patch area, improved RV function and patch area contractility. PMID:21765559

Estimation of tunnel blockage from wall pressure signatures: A review and data correlation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hackett, J. E.; Wilsden, D. J.; Lilley, D. E.

1979-01-01

A method is described for estimating low speed wind tunnel blockage, including model volume, bubble separation and viscous wake effects. A tunnel-centerline, source/sink distribution is derived from measured wall pressure signatures using fast algorithms to solve the inverse problem in three dimensions. Blockage may then be computed throughout the test volume. Correlations using scaled models or tests in two tunnels were made in all cases. In many cases model reference area exceeded 10% of the tunnel cross-sectional area. Good correlations were obtained regarding model surface pressures, lift drag and pitching moment. It is shown that blockage-induced velocity variations across the test section are relatively unimportant but axial gradients should be considered when model size is determined.

The use of process models to inform and improve statistical models of nitrate occurrence, Great Miami River Basin, southwestern Ohio

USGS Publications Warehouse

Walter, Donald A.; Starn, J. Jeffrey

2013-01-01

Statistical models of nitrate occurrence in the glacial aquifer system of the northern United States, developed by the U.S. Geological Survey, use observed relations between nitrate concentrations and sets of explanatory variables—representing well-construction, environmental, and source characteristics— to predict the probability that nitrate, as nitrogen, will exceed a threshold concentration. However, the models do not explicitly account for the processes that control the transport of nitrogen from surface sources to a pumped well and use area-weighted mean spatial variables computed from within a circular buffer around the well as a simplified source-area conceptualization. The use of models that explicitly represent physical-transport processes can inform and, potentially, improve these statistical models. Specifically, groundwater-flow models simulate advective transport—predominant in many surficial aquifers— and can contribute to the refinement of the statistical models by (1) providing for improved, physically based representations of a source area to a well, and (2) allowing for more detailed estimates of environmental variables. A source area to a well, known as a contributing recharge area, represents the area at the water table that contributes recharge to a pumped well; a well pumped at a volumetric rate equal to the amount of recharge through a circular buffer will result in a contributing recharge area that is the same size as the buffer but has a shape that is a function of the hydrologic setting. These volume-equivalent contributing recharge areas will approximate circular buffers in areas of relatively flat hydraulic gradients, such as near groundwater divides, but in areas with steep hydraulic gradients will be elongated in the upgradient direction and agree less with the corresponding circular buffers. The degree to which process-model-estimated contributing recharge areas, which simulate advective transport and therefore account for local hydrologic settings, would inform and improve the development of statistical models can be implicitly estimated by evaluating the differences between explanatory variables estimated from the contributing recharge areas and the circular buffers used to develop existing statistical models. The larger the difference in estimated variables, the more likely that statistical models would be changed, and presumably improved, if explanatory variables estimated from contributing recharge areas were used in model development. Comparing model predictions from the two sets of estimated variables would further quantify—albeit implicitly—how an improved, physically based estimate of explanatory variables would be reflected in model predictions. Differences between the two sets of estimated explanatory variables and resultant model predictions vary spatially; greater differences are associated with areas of steep hydraulic gradients. A direct comparison, however, would require the development of a separate set of statistical models using explanatory variables from contributing recharge areas. Area-weighted means of three environmental variables—silt content, alfisol content, and depth to water from the U.S. Department of Agriculture State Soil Geographic (STATSGO) data—and one nitrogen-source variable (fertilizer-application rate from county data mapped to Enhanced National Land Cover Data 1992 (NLCDe 92) agricultural land use) can vary substantially between circular buffers and volume-equivalent contributing recharge areas and among contributing recharge areas for different sets of well variables. The differences in estimated explanatory variables are a function of the same factors affecting the contributing recharge areas as well as the spatial resolution and local distribution of the underlying spatial data. As a result, differences in estimated variables between circular buffers and contributing recharge areas are complex and site specific as evidenced by differences in estimated variables for circular buffers and contributing recharge areas of existing public-supply and network wells in the Great Miami River Basin. Large differences in areaweighted mean environmental variables are observed at the basin scale, determined by using the network of uniformly spaced hypothetical wells; the differences have a spatial pattern that generally is similar to spatial patterns in the underlying STATSGO data. Generally, the largest differences were observed for area-weighted nitrogen-application rate from county and national land-use data; the basin-scale differences ranged from -1,600 (indicating a larger value from within the volume-equivalent contributing recharge area) to 1,900 kilograms per year (kg/yr); the range in the underlying spatial data was from 0 to 2,200 kg/yr. Silt content, alfisol content, and nitrogen-application rate are defined by the underlying spatial data and are external to the groundwater system; however, depth to water is an environmental variable that can be estimated in more detail and, presumably, in a more physically based manner using a groundwater-flow model than using the spatial data. Model-calculated depths to water within circular buffers in the Great Miami River Basin differed substantially from values derived from the spatial data and had a much larger range. Differences in estimates of area-weighted spatial variables result in corresponding differences in predictions of nitrate occurrence in the aquifer. In addition to the factors affecting contributing recharge areas and estimated explanatory variables, differences in predictions also are a function of the specific set of explanatory variables used and the fitted slope coefficients in a given model. For models that predicted the probability of exceeding 1 and 4 milligrams per liter as nitrogen (mg/L as N), predicted probabilities using variables estimated from circular buffers and contributing recharge areas generally were correlated but differed significantly at the local and basin scale. The scale and distribution of prediction differences can be explained by the underlying differences in the estimated variables and the relative weight of the variables in the statistical models. Differences in predictions of exceeding 1 mg/L as N, which only includes environmental variables, generally correlated with the underlying differences in STATSGO data, whereas differences in exceeding 4 mg/L as N were more spatially extensive because that model included environmental and nitrogen-source variables. Using depths to water from within circular buffers derived from the spatial data and depths to water within the circular buffers calculated from the groundwater-flow model, restricted to the same range, resulted in large differences in predicted probabilities. The differences in estimated explanatory variables between contributing recharge areas and circular buffers indicate incorporation of physically based contributing recharge area likely would result in a different set of explanatory variables and an improved set of statistical models. The use of a groundwater-flow model to improve representations of source areas or to provide more-detailed estimates of specific explanatory variables includes a number of limitations and technical considerations. An assumption in these analyses is that (1) there is a state of mass balance between recharge and pumping, and (2) transport to a pumped well is under a steady state flow field. Comparison of volumeequivalent contributing recharge areas under steady-state and transient transport conditions at a location in the southeastern part of the basin shows the steady-state contributing recharge area is a reasonable approximation of the transient contributing recharge area after between 10 and 20 years of pumping. The first assumption is a more important consideration for this analysis. A gradient effect refers to a condition where simulated pumping from a well is less than recharge through the corresponding contributing recharge area. This generally takes place in areas with steep hydraulic gradients, such as near discharge locations, and can be mitigated using a finer model discretization. A boundary effect refers to a condition where recharge through the contributing recharge area is less than pumping. This indicates other sources of water to the simulated well and could reflect a real hydrologic process. In the Great Miami River Basin, large gradient and boundary effects—defined as the balance between pumping and recharge being less than half—occurred in 5 and 14 percent of the basin, respectively. The agreement between circular buffers and volume-equivalent contributing recharge areas, differences in estimated variables, and the effect on statisticalmodel predictions between the population of wells with a balance between pumping and recharge within 10 percent and the population of all wells were similar. This indicated process-model limitations did not affect the overall findings in the Great Miami River Basin; however, this would be model specific, and prudent use of a process model needs to entail a limitations analysis and, if necessary, alterations to the model.

Spatially explicit shallow landslide susceptibility mapping over large areas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bellugi, Dino; Dietrich, William E.; Stock, Jonathan D.; McKean, Jim; Kazian, Brian; Hargrove, Paul

2011-01-01

Recent advances in downscaling climate model precipitation predictions now yield spatially explicit patterns of rainfall that could be used to estimate shallow landslide susceptibility over large areas. In California, the United States Geological Survey is exploring community emergency response to the possible effects of a very large simulated storm event and to do so it has generated downscaled precipitation maps for the storm. To predict the corresponding pattern of shallow landslide susceptibility across the state, we have used the model Shalstab (a coupled steady state runoff and infinite slope stability model) which susceptibility spatially explicit estimates of relative potential instability. Such slope stability models that include the effects of subsurface runoff on potentially destabilizing pore pressure evolution require water routing and hence the definition of upslope drainage area to each potential cell. To calculate drainage area efficiently over a large area we developed a parallel framework to scale-up Shalstab and specifically introduce a new efficient parallel drainage area algorithm which produces seamless results. The single seamless shallow landslide susceptibility map for all of California was accomplished in a short run time, and indicates that much larger areas can be efficiently modelled. As landslide maps generally over predict the extent of instability for any given storm. Local empirical data on the fraction of predicted unstable cells that failed for observed rainfall intensity can be used to specify the likely extent of hazard for a given storm. This suggests that campaigns to collect local precipitation data and detailed shallow landslide location maps after major storms could be used to calibrate models and improve their use in hazard assessment for individual storms.

Water Pollution Prediction in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area and Countermeasures for Sustainable Development of the Water Environment

PubMed Central

Huang, Shuaijin; Qu, Xuexin

2017-01-01

The Three Gorges Project was implemented in 1994 to promote sustainable water resource use and development of the water environment in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area (hereafter “Reservoir Area”). However, massive discharge of wastewater along the river threatens these goals; therefore, this study employs a grey prediction model (GM) to predict the annual emissions of primary pollution sources, including industrial wastewater, domestic wastewater, and oily and domestic wastewater from ships, that influence the Three Gorges Reservoir Area water environment. First, we optimize the initial values of a traditional GM (1,1) model, and build a new GM (1,1) model that minimizes the sum of squares of the relative simulation errors. Second, we use the new GM (1,1) model to simulate historical annual emissions data for the four pollution sources and thereby test the effectiveness of the model. Third, we predict the annual emissions of the four pollution sources in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area for a future period. The prediction results reveal the annual emission trends for the major wastewater types, and indicate the primary sources of water pollution in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area. Based on our predictions, we suggest several countermeasures against water pollution and towards the sustainable development of the water environment in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area. PMID:29077006

Hydrogeology and simulation of source areas of water to production wells in a colluvium-mantled carbonate-bedrock aquifer near Shippensburg, Cumberland and Franklin Counties, Pennsylvania

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lindsey, Bruce D.

2005-01-01

This report presents the results of a study by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Shippensburg Borough Authority to evaluate the source areas of water to production wells in a colluvium-mantled carbonate-bedrock aquifer in Cumberland and Franklin Counties, Pa. The areal extent of the zone of contribution was simulated for three production wells near Shippensburg, Pa. by use of a ground-water-flow model. A 111-square-mile area was selected as the model area and includes areas of the South Mountain Section and the Great Valley Section of the Valley and Ridge Physiographic Province. Within the model area, the geologic units in the South Mountain area are predominantly metamorphic rocks and the geologic units in the Great Valley are predominantly carbonate rocks. Hydrologic and geologic information were compiled to establish a conceptual model of ground-water flow. Characteristics of aquifer materials were determined, and streamflow and water levels were measured. Streamflow measurements in November 2003 showed all streams lost water as they flowed from South Mountain over the colluvium-mantled carbonate aquifer into the Great Valley. Some streams lost more than 1 cubic foot per second to the aquifer in this area. The Shippensburg Borough Authority owns three production wells in the model area. Two wells, Cu 969 and Fr 823, are currently (2004) used as production wells and produce 500,000 and 800,000 gallons per day, respectively. Well Cu 970 is intended to be brought on line as a production well in the future. Water levels were measured in 43 wells to use for model calibration. Water-level fluctuations and geophysical logs indicated confined conditions in well Cu 970. Ground-water flow was simulated with a model that consisted of two vertical layers, with five zones in each layer. The units were hydrostratigraphic units that initially were based on geologic formations, but boundaries were adjusted during model calibration. Model calibration resulted in a root mean square error of 9.8 feet. A parameter-estimation package was used during model calibration to estimate three parameters. The parameter estimation resulted in a value of 233 feet per day for horizontal hydraulic conductivity of the highly fractured carbonate rocks and sandy colluvium in layer 1; 3.97 feet per day for horizontal hydraulic conductivity of the ridge-forming unit in layer 1; and a value of 1.73 for horizontal anisotropy in both layers. The calibrated model was used to delineate the areal extent of the zone of contribution for wells Cu 969 and Fr 823. Although well Cu 970 is not currently (2004) being used, the areal extent of its zone of contribution also was simulated without additional model calibration. The shape of the areal extent of the zone of contribution was similar for each well and included an area that extended from the well southwest along the Tomstown Formation, and then extended southeast into the metamorphic rocks of South Mountain. The contributing areas from the watersheds of losing streams were also delineated because losing stream reaches bisect the areal extent of the zones of contribution. Spatial uncertainty of the areal extent of the zone of contribution was illustrated using a Monte-Carlo analysis. The model was run 1,000 times using randomly generated parameter sets that were normally distributed within the confidence interval around the optimal values for the three estimated parameters. The model converged and had a reasonable water budget for 980 of the model runs. For each of those 980 model runs, the recharge area was determined, and the results for all runs were compiled and contoured. The results of the Monte-Carlo analysis were compared to the results of the deterministic model, illustrating that the deterministic model has the greatest certainty in the area closest to each well in the Tomstown Formation. The areas farther from the well, upgradient, and in the metamorphic rocks have a higher degree

40 CFR 51.852 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... manager means the Federal agency or the Federal official charged with direct responsibility for management... requirements of the Act. Areawide air quality modeling analysis means an assessment on a scale that includes the entire nonattainment or maintenance area which uses an air quality dispersion model to determine...

An Integrated Approach to Laser Crystal Development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ries, Heidi R.

1996-01-01

Norfolk State University has developed an integrated research program in the area of laser crystal development, including crystal modeling, crystal growth, spectroscopy, and laser modeling. This research program supports a new graduate program in Chemical Physics, designed in part to address the shortage of minority scientists.

Progress in Modeling Nonlinear Dendritic Evolution in Two and Three Dimensions, and Its Mathematical Justification

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tanveer, S.; Foster, M. R.

2002-01-01

We report progress in three areas of investigation related to dendritic crystal growth. Those items include: 1. Selection of tip features dendritic crystal growth; 2) Investigation of nonlinear evolution for two-sided model; and 3) Rigorous mathematical justification.

Scott Horowitz | NREL

Science.gov Websites

area, which includes work on whole building energy modeling, cost-based optimization, model accuracy optimization tool used to provide support for the Building America program's teams and energy efficiency goals Colorado graduate student exploring enhancements to building optimization in terms of robustness and speed

Three-dimensional electrical resistivity model of a nuclear waste disposal site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rucker, Dale F.; Levitt, Marc T.; Greenwood, William J.

2009-12-01

A three-dimensional (3D) modeling study was completed on a very large electrical resistivity survey conducted at a nuclear waste site in eastern Washington. The acquisition included 47 pole-pole two-dimensional (2D) resistivity profiles collected along parallel and orthogonal lines over an area of 850 m × 570 m. The data were geo-referenced and inverted using EarthImager3D (EI3D). EI3D runs on a Microsoft 32-bit operating system (e.g. WIN-2K, XP) with a maximum usable memory of 2 GB. The memory limits the size of the domain for the inversion model to 200 m × 200 m, based on the survey electrode density. Therefore, a series of increasing overlapping models were run to evaluate the effectiveness of dividing the survey area into smaller subdomains. The results of the smaller subdomains were compared to the inversion results of a single domain over a larger area using an upgraded form of EI3D that incorporates multi-processing capabilities and 32 GB of RAM memory. The contours from the smaller subdomains showed discontinuity at the boundaries between the adjacent models, which do not match the hydrogeologic expectations given the nature of disposal at the site. At several boundaries, the contours of the low resistivity areas close, leaving the appearance of disconnected plumes or open contours at boundaries are not met with a continuance of the low resistivity plume into the adjacent subdomain. The model results of the single large domain show a continuous monolithic plume within the central and western portion of the site, directly beneath the elongated trenches. It is recommended that where possible, the domain not be subdivided, but instead include as much of the domain as possible given the memory of available computing resources.

Geometric Accuracy Analysis of Worlddem in Relation to AW3D30, Srtm and Aster GDEM2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bayburt, S.; Kurtak, A. B.; Büyüksalih, G.; Jacobsen, K.

2017-05-01

In a project area close to Istanbul the quality of WorldDEM, AW3D30, SRTM DSM and ASTER GDEM2 have been analyzed in relation to a reference aerial LiDAR DEM and to each other. The random and the systematic height errors have been separated. The absolute offset for all height models in X, Y and Z is within the expectation. The shifts have been respected in advance for a satisfying estimation of the random error component. All height models are influenced by some tilts, different in size. In addition systematic deformations can be seen not influencing the standard deviation too much. The delivery of WorldDEM includes information about the height error map which is based on the interferometric phase errors, and the number and location of coverage's from different orbits. A dependency of the height accuracy from the height error map information and the number of coverage's can be seen, but it is smaller as expected. WorldDEM is more accurate as the other investigated height models and with 10 m point spacing it includes more morphologic details, visible at contour lines. The morphologic details are close to the details based on the LiDAR digital surface model (DSM). As usual a dependency of the accuracy from the terrain slope can be seen. In forest areas the canopy definition of InSAR X- and C-band height models as well as for the height models based on optical satellite images is not the same as the height definition by LiDAR. In addition the interferometric phase uncertainty over forest areas is larger. Both effects lead to lower height accuracy in forest areas, also visible in the height error map.

Process-based model with flood control measures towards more realistic global flood modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Q.; Zhang, X.; Wang, Y.; Mu, M.; Lv, A.; Li, Z.

2017-12-01

In the profoundly human-influenced era, the Anthropocene, increased amount of land was developed in flood plains and many flood control measures were implemented to protect people and infrastructures placed in the flood-prone areas. These human influences (for example, dams and dykes) have altered peak streamflow and flood risk, and are already an integral part of flood. However, most of the process-based flood models have yet to taken into account the human influences. In this study, we used a hydrological model together with an advanced hydrodynamic model to assess flood risk at the Baiyangdian catchment. The Baiyangdian Lake is the largest shallow freshwater lake in North China, and it was used as a flood storage area in the past. A new development hub for the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei economic triangle, namely the Xiongan new area, was recently established in the flood-prone area around the lake. The shuttle radar topography mission (SRTM) digital elevation model (DEMs) was used to parameterize the hydrodynamic model simulation, and the inundation estimates were compared with published flood maps and observed inundation area during the extreme historical flood events. A simple scheme was carried out to consider the impacts of flood control measures, including the reservoirs in the headwaters and the dykes to be built. By comparing model simulations with and without the influences of flood control measures, we demonstrated the importance of human influences in altering the inundated area and depth under design flood conditions. Based on the SRTM DEM and dam and reservoir data in the Global Reservoir and Dam (GRanD) database, we further discuss the potential to develop a global flood model with human influences.

Stormwater Management Plan for the Arden Hills Army Training Site, Arden Hills, Minnesota

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Carr, Adrianne E.; Wuthrich, Kelsey K.; Ziech, Angela M.

2013-03-01

This stormwater management plan focuses on the cantonment and training areas of the Arden Hills Army Training Site (AHATS). The plan relates the site stormwater to the regulatory framework, and it summarizes best management practices to aide site managers in promoting clean site runoff. It includes documentation for a newly developed, detailed model of stormwater flow retention for the entire AHATS property and adjacent upgradient areas. The model relies on established modeling codes integrated in a U.S. Department of Defense-sponsored software tool, the Watershed Modeling System (WMS), and it can be updated with data on changes in land use ormore » with monitoring data.« less

Optimizing romanian maritime coastline using mathematical model Litpack

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anton, I. A.; Panaitescu, M.; Panaitescu, F. V.

2017-08-01

There are many methods and tools to study shoreline change in coastal engineering. LITPACK is a numerical model included in MIKE software developed by DHI (Danish Hydraulic Institute). With this matehematical model we can simulate coastline evolution and profile along beach. Research and methodology: the paper contents location of the study area, the current status of Midia-Mangalia shoreline, protection objectives, the changes of shoreline after having protected constructions. In this paper are presented numerical and graphycal results obtained with this model for studying the romanian maritime coastline in area MIDIA-MANGALIA: non-cohesive sediment transport, long-shore current and littoral drift, coastline evolution, crossshore profile evolution, the development of the coastline position in time.

Chloride and salicylate influence prestin-dependent specific membrane capacitance: support for the area motor model.

PubMed

Santos-Sacchi, Joseph; Song, Lei

2014-04-11

The outer hair cell is electromotile, its membrane motor identified as the protein SLC26a5 (prestin). An area motor model, based on two-state Boltzmann statistics, was developed about two decades ago and derives from the observation that outer hair cell surface area is voltage-dependent. Indeed, aside from the nonlinear capacitance imparted by the voltage sensor charge movement of prestin, linear capacitance (Clin) also displays voltage dependence as motors move between expanded and compact states. Naturally, motor surface area changes alter membrane capacitance. Unit linear motor capacitance fluctuation (δCsa) is on the order of 140 zeptofarads. A recent three-state model of prestin provides an alternative view, suggesting that voltage-dependent linear capacitance changes are not real but only apparent because the two component Boltzmann functions shift their midpoint voltages (Vh) in opposite directions during treatment with salicylate, a known competitor of required chloride binding. We show here using manipulations of nonlinear capacitance with both salicylate and chloride that an enhanced area motor model, including augmented δCsa by salicylate, can accurately account for our novel findings. We also show that although the three-state model implicitly avoids measuring voltage-dependent motor capacitance, it registers δCsa effects as a byproduct of its assessment of Clin, which increases during salicylate treatment as motors are locked in the expanded state. The area motor model, in contrast, captures the characteristics of the voltage dependence of δCsa, leading to a better understanding of prestin.

INEEL Subregional Conceptual Model Report; Volume 1 - Summary of Existing Knowledge of Natural and Anthropogenic Influences Governing Subsurface Contaminant Transport in the INEEL Subregion of the Eastern Snake River Plain

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wichlacz, Paul Louis; Orr, Brennan

2002-08-01

The National Research Council has defined a conceptual model as ''an evolving hypothesis identifying the important features, processes, and events controlling fluid flow and contaminant transport of consequence at a specific field site in the context of a recognized problem''. Presently, several subregional conceptual models are under development at the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL). Additionally, facility-specific conceptual models have been described as part of INEEL environmental restoration activities. Compilation of these models is required to develop a comprehensive conceptual model that can be used to strategically plan for future groundwater research activities at the INEEL. Conceptual modelsmore » of groundwater flow and contaminant transport at the INEEL include the description of the geologic framework, matrix hydraulic properties, and inflows and outflows. They also include definitions of the contaminant source term and contaminant transport mechanisms. The geologic framework of the INEEL subregion is described by the geometry of the system, stratigraphic units within the system, and structural features that affect groundwater flow and contaminant transport. These elements define geohydrologic units that make up the Snake River Plain Aquifer (SRPA). The United States Geological Survey (USGS) conceptual model encompasses approximately 1,920 mi2 of the eastern Snake River Plain. The Waste Area Group (WAG)-10 model includes the USGS area and additional areas to the northeast and southeast. Both conceptual models are bounded to the northwest by the Pioneer Mountains, Lost River Range, and Lemhi Mountains. They are bounded to the southeast by groundwater flow paths determined from aquifer water-level contours. The upgradient extent of the USGS model is a water-level contour that includes the northeastern boundary of the INEEL. The WAG-10 model includes more of the Mud Lake area to utilize previous estimates of underflow into the subregion. Both conceptual models extend approximately 25 miles to the southwest of the INEEL, a distance sufficient to include known concentrations of contaminant tracers. Several hypotheses have been developed concerning the effective thickness of the SRPA at the INEEL. The USGS model has defined the effective thickness from electrical resistivity and borehole data to be as much as 2,500 ft in the eastern part of the subregion and as much as 4,000 ft in the southwestern part. The WAG-10 model has developed two alternatives using aquifer-temperature and electrical resistivity data. The ''thick'' aquifer interpretation utilizes colder temperature data and includes a northtrending zone in which the thickness exceeds 1,300 ft and with a maximum thickness of 1,700 ft. The ''thin'' aquifer interpretation minimizes aquifer thickness, with thickness ranging from 328 to 1,300 ft. Facility-specific models generally have focused efforts on the upper 250 ft of saturation. Conceptual models have utilized a stratigraphic data set to define geohydrologic units within the INEEL subregion. This data set, compiled from geophysical logs and cores from boreholes, correlates the thick, complex stack of basalt flows across the subregion. Conceptual models generally concur that the upper geohydrologic unit consists of a section of highly fractured, multiple, thin basalt flows and sedimentary interbeds. Beneath this unit is an areally extensive, thick, unfractured basalt flow that rises above the water table southwest of the INEEL. The bottom unit consists of a thick section of slightly- to moderately-altered basalt. A key objective of the DOE water-integration project at the INEEL is to coordinate development of a subregional conceptual model of groundwater flow and contaminant transport that is based on the best available understanding of geologic and hydrologic features. The first step in this process is to compile and summarize the current conceptual models of groundwater flow and contaminant transport at the INEEL that have been developed from extensive geohydrologic studies conducted during the last 50 years.« less

Four pi calibration and modeling of a bare germanium detector in a cylindrical field source

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dewberry, R. A.; Young, J. E.

2012-05-01

In this paper we describe a 4π cylindrical field acquisition configuration surrounding a bare (unshielded, uncollimated) high purity germanium detector. We perform an efficiency calibration with a flexible planar source and model the configuration in the 4π cylindrical field. We then use exact calculus to model the flux on the cylindrical sides and end faces of the detector. We demonstrate that the model accurately represents the experimental detection efficiency compared to that of a point source and to Monte Carlo N-particle (MCNP) calculations of the flux. The model sums over the entire source surface area and the entire detector surface area including both faces and the detector's cylindrical sides. Agreement between the model and both experiment and the MCNP calculation is within 8%.

Nano- to Formation-Scale Estimates of Mineral-Specific Reactive Surface Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cole, D. R.; Swift, A.; Sheets, J.; Anovitz, L. M.

2017-12-01

Predictions of changes in fluid composition, coupled with the evolution of the solid matrix, include the generation and testing of reactive transport models. However, translating a heterogeneous natural system into physical and chemical model parameters, including the critical but poorly-constrained metric of fluid-accessible surface area, continues to challenge Earth scientists. Studies of carbon storage capacity, permeability, rock strain due to mineral dissolution and precipitation, or the prediction of rock evolution through diagenesis and weathering each consider macroscale outcomes of processes that often are critically impacted by rock surface geometry at the nanoscale. The approach taken here is to consider the whole vertical extent of a saline reservoir and then to address two questions. First, what is the accessible surface area for each major mineral, and for all adjacent pore sizes from <2 nm on up, within each major lithofacies in that formation? Second, with the formation thus divided into units of analysis, parameterized, and placed into geologic context, what constraints can be placed on reactive surface area as a function of mineral composition? A complex sandstone covering a substantial fraction of the quartz-K-feldspar-illite ternary is selected and mineral-specific surface area quantified using neutron scattering, nitrogen and mercury porosimetry, multi-signal high-resolution mineral mapping, and other techniques. For neutron scattering, scale-specific pore geometries enable more accurate translation of volume into surface area. By applying this workflow to all end-member lithologies of this reservoir formation, equations and maps of surface area as a function of position on a quartz-feldspar-clay ternary plot are developed for each major mineral. Results from this work therefore advance our ability to parameterize models not just for the particular formation studied, but for similar geologic units as well.

Fourier power, subjective distance, and object categories all provide plausible models of BOLD responses in scene-selective visual areas

PubMed Central

Lescroart, Mark D.; Stansbury, Dustin E.; Gallant, Jack L.

2015-01-01

Perception of natural visual scenes activates several functional areas in the human brain, including the Parahippocampal Place Area (PPA), Retrosplenial Complex (RSC), and the Occipital Place Area (OPA). It is currently unclear what specific scene-related features are represented in these areas. Previous studies have suggested that PPA, RSC, and/or OPA might represent at least three qualitatively different classes of features: (1) 2D features related to Fourier power; (2) 3D spatial features such as the distance to objects in a scene; or (3) abstract features such as the categories of objects in a scene. To determine which of these hypotheses best describes the visual representation in scene-selective areas, we applied voxel-wise modeling (VM) to BOLD fMRI responses elicited by a set of 1386 images of natural scenes. VM provides an efficient method for testing competing hypotheses by comparing predictions of brain activity based on encoding models that instantiate each hypothesis. Here we evaluated three different encoding models that instantiate each of the three hypotheses listed above. We used linear regression to fit each encoding model to the fMRI data recorded from each voxel, and we evaluated each fit model by estimating the amount of variance it predicted in a withheld portion of the data set. We found that voxel-wise models based on Fourier power or the subjective distance to objects in each scene predicted much of the variance predicted by a model based on object categories. Furthermore, the response variance explained by these three models is largely shared, and the individual models explain little unique variance in responses. Based on an evaluation of previous studies and the data we present here, we conclude that there is currently no good basis to favor any one of the three alternative hypotheses about visual representation in scene-selective areas. We offer suggestions for further studies that may help resolve this issue. PMID:26594164

Protected areas' role in climate-change mitigation.

PubMed

Melillo, Jerry M; Lu, Xiaoliang; Kicklighter, David W; Reilly, John M; Cai, Yongxia; Sokolov, Andrei P

2016-03-01

Globally, 15.5 million km(2) of land are currently identified as protected areas, which provide society with many ecosystem services including climate-change mitigation. Combining a global database of protected areas, a reconstruction of global land-use history, and a global biogeochemistry model, we estimate that protected areas currently sequester 0.5 Pg C annually, which is about one fifth of the carbon sequestered by all land ecosystems annually. Using an integrated earth systems model to generate climate and land-use scenarios for the twenty-first century, we project that rapid climate change, similar to high-end projections in IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report, would cause the annual carbon sequestration rate in protected areas to drop to about 0.3 Pg C by 2100. For the scenario with both rapid climate change and extensive land-use change driven by population and economic pressures, 5.6 million km(2) of protected areas would be converted to other uses, and carbon sequestration in the remaining protected areas would drop to near zero by 2100.

An Overview of FlamMap Fire Modeling Capabilities

Treesearch

Mark A. Finney

2006-01-01

Computerized and manual systems for modeling wildland fire behavior have long been available (Rothermel 1983, Andrews 1986). These systems focus on one-dimensional behaviors and assume the fire geometry is a spreading line-fire (in contrast with point or area-source fires). Models included in these systems were developed to calculate fire spread rate (Rothermel 1972,...

Landscape scale mapping of forest inventory data by nearest neighbor classification

Treesearch

Andrew Lister

2009-01-01

One of the goals of the Forest Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture's Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program is large-area mapping. FIA scientists have tried many methods in the past, including geostatistical methods, linear modeling, nonlinear modeling, and simple choropleth and dot maps. Mapping methods that require individual model-based maps to be...

Annual updating of plantation inventory estimates using hybrid models

Treesearch

Peter Snowdon

2000-01-01

Data for Pinus radiata D. Don grown in the Australian Capital Territory (ACT) are used to show that annual indices of growth potential can be successfully incorporated into Schumacher projection models of stand basal area growth. Significant reductions in the error mean squares of the models can be obtained by including an annual growth index derived...

A five states survivability model for missions with ground-to-air threats

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erlandsson, Tina; Niklasson, Lars

2013-05-01

Fighter pilots are exposed to the risk of getting hit by enemy fire when flying missions with ground-to-air threats. A tactical support system including a survivability model could aid the pilot to assess and handle this risk. The survivability model presented here is a Markov model with five states; Undetected, Detected, Tracked, Engaged and Hit. The output from the model is the probabilities that the aircraft is in these states during the mission. The enemy's threat systems are represented with sensor and weapon areas and the transitions between the states depend on whether or not the aircraft is within any of these areas. Contrary to previous work, the model can capture the behaviors that the enemy's sensor systems communicate and that the risk of getting hit depends on the enemy's knowledge regarding the aircraft's kinematics. The paper includes a discussion regarding the interpretation of the states and the factors that influence the transitions between the states. Further developments are also identified for using the model to aid fighter pilots and operators of unmanned aerial vehicles with planning and evaluating missions as well as analyzing the situation during flight.

Improvements and validation of the erythropoiesis control model for bed rest simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Leonard, J. I.

1977-01-01

The most significant improvement in the model is the explicit formulation of separate elements representing erythropoietin production and red cell production. Other modifications include bone marrow time-delays, capability to shift oxyhemoglobin affinity and an algorithm for entering experimental data as time-varying driving functions. An area of model development is suggested by applying the model to simulating onset, diagnosis and treatment of a hematologic disorder. Recommendations for further improvements in the model and suggestions for experimental application are also discussed. A detailed analysis of the hematologic response to bed rest including simulation of the recent Baylor Medical College bed rest studies is also presented.

Estimating home-range size: when to include a third dimension?

PubMed Central

Monterroso, Pedro; Sillero, Neftalí; Rosalino, Luís Miguel; Loureiro, Filipa; Alves, Paulo Célio

2013-01-01

Most studies dealing with home ranges consider the study areas as if they were totally flat, working only in two dimensions, when in reality they are irregular surfaces displayed in three dimensions. By disregarding the third dimension (i.e., topography), the size of home ranges underestimates the surface actually occupied by the animal, potentially leading to misinterpretations of the animals' ecological needs. We explored the influence of considering the third dimension in the estimation of home-range size by modeling the variation between the planimetric and topographic estimates at several spatial scales. Our results revealed that planimetric approaches underestimate home-range size estimations, which range from nearly zero up to 22%. The difference between planimetric and topographic estimates of home-ranges sizes produced highly robust models using the average slope as the sole independent factor. Moreover, our models suggest that planimetric estimates in areas with an average slope of 16.3° (±0.4) or more will incur in errors ≥5%. Alternatively, the altitudinal range can be used as an indicator of the need to include topography in home-range estimates. Our results confirmed that home-range estimates could be significantly biased when topography is disregarded. We suggest that study areas where home-range studies will be performed should firstly be scoped for its altitudinal range, which can serve as an indicator for the need for posterior use of average slope values to model the surface area used and/or available for the studied animals. PMID:23919170

Estimating malaria burden in Nigeria: a geostatistical modelling approach.

PubMed

Onyiri, Nnadozie

2015-11-04

This study has produced a map of malaria prevalence in Nigeria based on available data from the Mapping Malaria Risk in Africa (MARA) database, including all malaria prevalence surveys in Nigeria that could be geolocated, as well as data collected during fieldwork in Nigeria between March and June 2007. Logistic regression was fitted to malaria prevalence to identify significant demographic (age) and environmental covariates in STATA. The following environmental covariates were included in the spatial model: the normalized difference vegetation index, the enhanced vegetation index, the leaf area index, the land surface temperature for day and night, land use/landcover (LULC), distance to water bodies, and rainfall. The spatial model created suggests that the two main environmental covariates correlating with malaria presence were land surface temperature for day and rainfall. It was also found that malaria prevalence increased with distance to water bodies up to 4 km. The malaria risk map estimated from the spatial model shows that malaria prevalence in Nigeria varies from 20% in certain areas to 70% in others. The highest prevalence rates were found in the Niger Delta states of Rivers and Bayelsa, the areas surrounding the confluence of the rivers Niger and Benue, and also isolated parts of the north-eastern and north-western parts of the country. Isolated patches of low malaria prevalence were found to be scattered around the country with northern Nigeria having more such areas than the rest of the country. Nigeria's belt of middle regions generally has malaria prevalence of 40% and above.

4D petroleum system model of the Mississippian System in the Anadarko Basin Province, Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas, and Colorado, U.S.A.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Higley, Debra K.

2013-01-01

The Upper Devonian and Lower Mississippian Woodford Shale is an important petroleum source rock for Mississippian reservoirs in the Anadarko Basin Province of Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas, and Colorado, based on results from a 4D petroleum system model of the basin. The Woodford Shale underlies Mississippian strata over most of the Anadarko Basin portions of Oklahoma and northeastern Texas. The Kansas and Colorado portions of the province are almost entirely thermally immature for oil generation from the Woodford Shale or potential Mississippian source rocks, based mainly on measured vitrinite reflectance and modeled thermal maturation. Thermal maturities of the Woodford Shale range from mature for oil to overmature for gas generation at present-day depths of about 5,000 to 20,000 ft. Oil generation began at burial depths of about 6,000 to 6,500 ft. Modeled onset of Woodford Shale oil generation was about 330 million years ago (Ma); peak oil generation was from 300 to 220 Ma.Mississippian production, including horizontal wells of the informal Mississippi limestone, is concentrated within and north of the Sooner Trend area in the northeast Oklahoma portion of the basin. This large pod of oil and gas production is within the area modeled as thermally mature for oil generation from the Woodford Shale. The southern boundary of the trend approximates the 99% transformation ratio of the Woodford Shale, which marks the end of oil generation. Because most of the Sooner Trend area is thermally mature for oil generation from the Woodford Shale, the trend probably includes short- and longer-distance vertical and lateral migration. The Woodford Shale is absent in the Mocane-Laverne Field area of the eastern Oklahoma panhandle; because of this, associated oil migrated from the south into the field. If the Springer Formation or deeper Mississippian strata generated oil, then the southern field area is within the oil window for associated petroleum source rocks. Mississippian fields along the western boundary of the study area were supplied by oil that flowed northward from the Panhandle Field area and westward from the deep basin.

Toward Improved Fidelity of Thermal Explosion Simulations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nichols, A L; Becker, R; Howard, W M

2009-07-17

We will present results of an effort to improve the thermal/chemical/mechanical modeling of HMX based explosive like LX04 and LX10 for thermal cook-off. The original HMX model and analysis scheme were developed by Yoh et.al. for use in the ALE3D modeling framework. The current results were built to remedy the deficiencies of that original model. We concentrated our efforts in four areas. The first area was addition of porosity to the chemical material model framework in ALE3D that is used to model the HMX explosive formulation. This is needed to handle the roughly 2% porosity in solid explosives. The secondmore » area was the improvement of the HMX reaction network, which included the inclusion of a reactive phase change model base on work by Henson et.al. The third area required adding early decomposition gas species to the CHEETAH material database to develop more accurate equations of state for gaseous intermediates and products. Finally, it was necessary to improve the implicit mechanics module in ALE3D to more naturally handle the long time scales associated with thermal cook-off. The application of the resulting framework to the analysis of the Scaled Thermal Explosion (STEX) experiments will be discussed.« less

Proton exchange membrane fuel cell model for aging predictions: Simulated equivalent active surface area loss and comparisons with durability tests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robin, C.; Gérard, M.; Quinaud, M.; d'Arbigny, J.; Bultel, Y.

2016-09-01

The prediction of Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cell (PEMFC) lifetime is one of the major challenges to optimize both material properties and dynamic control of the fuel cell system. In this study, by a multiscale modeling approach, a mechanistic catalyst dissolution model is coupled to a dynamic PEMFC cell model to predict the performance loss of the PEMFC. Results are compared to two 2000-h experimental aging tests. More precisely, an original approach is introduced to estimate the loss of an equivalent active surface area during an aging test. Indeed, when the computed Electrochemical Catalyst Surface Area profile is fitted on the experimental measures from Cyclic Voltammetry, the computed performance loss of the PEMFC is underestimated. To be able to predict the performance loss measured by polarization curves during the aging test, an equivalent active surface area is obtained by a model inversion. This methodology enables to successfully find back the experimental cell voltage decay during time. The model parameters are fitted from the polarization curves so that they include the global degradation. Moreover, the model captures the aging heterogeneities along the surface of the cell observed experimentally. Finally, a second 2000-h durability test in dynamic operating conditions validates the approach.

Research on bathymetry estimation by Worldview-2 based with the semi-analytical model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheng, L.; Bai, J.; Zhou, G.-W.; Zhao, Y.; Li, Y.-C.

2015-04-01

South Sea Islands of China are far away from the mainland, the reefs takes more than 95% of south sea, and most reefs scatter over interested dispute sensitive area. Thus, the methods of obtaining the reefs bathymetry accurately are urgent to be developed. Common used method, including sonar, airborne laser and remote sensing estimation, are limited by the long distance, large area and sensitive location. Remote sensing data provides an effective way for bathymetry estimation without touching over large area, by the relationship between spectrum information and bathymetry. Aimed at the water quality of the south sea of China, our paper develops a bathymetry estimation method without measured water depth. Firstly the semi-analytical optimization model of the theoretical interpretation models has been studied based on the genetic algorithm to optimize the model. Meanwhile, OpenMP parallel computing algorithm has been introduced to greatly increase the speed of the semi-analytical optimization model. One island of south sea in China is selected as our study area, the measured water depth are used to evaluate the accuracy of bathymetry estimation from Worldview-2 multispectral images. The results show that: the semi-analytical optimization model based on genetic algorithm has good results in our study area;the accuracy of estimated bathymetry in the 0-20 meters shallow water area is accepted.Semi-analytical optimization model based on genetic algorithm solves the problem of the bathymetry estimation without water depth measurement. Generally, our paper provides a new bathymetry estimation method for the sensitive reefs far away from mainland.

A new methodology for modeling of direct landslide costs for transportation infrastructures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klose, Martin; Terhorst, Birgit

2014-05-01

The world's transportation infrastructure is at risk of landslides in many areas across the globe. A safe and affordable operation of traffic routes are the two main criteria for transportation planning in landslide-prone areas. The right balancing of these often conflicting priorities requires, amongst others, profound knowledge of the direct costs of landslide damage. These costs include capital investments for landslide repair and mitigation as well as operational expenditures for first response and maintenance works. This contribution presents a new methodology for ex post assessment of direct landslide costs for transportation infrastructures. The methodology includes tools to compile, model, and extrapolate landslide losses on different spatial scales over time. A landslide susceptibility model enables regional cost extrapolation by means of a cost figure obtained from local cost compilation for representative case study areas. On local level, cost survey is closely linked with cost modeling, a toolset for cost estimation based on landslide databases. Cost modeling uses Landslide Disaster Management Process Models (LDMMs) and cost modules to simulate and monetize cost factors for certain types of landslide damage. The landslide susceptibility model provides a regional exposure index and updates the cost figure to a cost index which describes the costs per km of traffic route at risk of landslides. Both indexes enable the regionalization of local landslide losses. The methodology is applied and tested in a cost assessment for highways in the Lower Saxon Uplands, NW Germany, in the period 1980 to 2010. The basis of this research is a regional subset of a landslide database for the Federal Republic of Germany. In the 7,000 km² large Lower Saxon Uplands, 77 km of highway are located in potential landslide hazard area. Annual average costs of 52k per km of highway at risk of landslides are identified as cost index for a local case study area in this region. The cost extrapolation for the Lower Saxon Uplands results in annual average costs for highways of 4.02mn. This test application as well as a validation of selected modeling tools verifies the functionality of this methodology.

Climate change effects on agriculture: Economic responses to biophysical shocks

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nelson, Gerald; Valin, Hugo; Sands, Ronald

Agricultural production is sensitive to weather and will thus be directly affected by climate change. Plausible estimates of these climate change impacts require combined use of climate, crop, and economic models. Results from previous studies vary substantially due to differences in models, scenarios, and data. This paper is part of a collective effort to systematically integrate these three types of models. We focus on the economic component of the assessment, investigating how nine global economic models of agriculture represent endogenous responses to seven standardized climate change scenarios produced by two climate and five crop models. These responses include adjustments inmore » yields, area, consumption, and international trade. We apply biophysical shocks derived from the IPCC’s Representative Concentration Pathway that result in end-of-century radiative forcing of 8.5 watts per square meter. The mean biophysical impact on crop yield with no incremental CO2 fertilization is a 17 percent reduction globally by 2050 relative to a scenario with unchanging climate. Endogenous economic responses reduce yield loss to 11 percent, increase area of major crops by 12 percent, and reduce consumption by 2 percent. Agricultural production, cropland area, trade, and prices show the greatest degree of variability in response to climate change, and consumption the lowest. The sources of these differences includes model structure and specification; in particular, model assumptions about ease of land use conversion, intensification, and trade. This study identifies where models disagree on the relative responses to climate shocks and highlights research activities needed to improve the representation of agricultural adaptation responses to climate change.« less

Masked areas in shear peak statistics. A forward modeling approach

DOE PAGES

Bard, D.; Kratochvil, J. M.; Dawson, W.

2016-03-09

The statistics of shear peaks have been shown to provide valuable cosmological information beyond the power spectrum, and will be an important constraint of models of cosmology in forthcoming astronomical surveys. Surveys include masked areas due to bright stars, bad pixels etc., which must be accounted for in producing constraints on cosmology from shear maps. We advocate a forward-modeling approach, where the impacts of masking and other survey artifacts are accounted for in the theoretical prediction of cosmological parameters, rather than correcting survey data to remove them. We use masks based on the Deep Lens Survey, and explore the impactmore » of up to 37% of the survey area being masked on LSST and DES-scale surveys. By reconstructing maps of aperture mass the masking effect is smoothed out, resulting in up to 14% smaller statistical uncertainties compared to simply reducing the survey area by the masked area. We show that, even in the presence of large survey masks, the bias in cosmological parameter estimation produced in the forward-modeling process is ≈1%, dominated by bias caused by limited simulation volume. We also explore how this potential bias scales with survey area and evaluate how much small survey areas are impacted by the differences in cosmological structure in the data and simulated volumes, due to cosmic variance.« less

MASKED AREAS IN SHEAR PEAK STATISTICS: A FORWARD MODELING APPROACH

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bard, D.; Kratochvil, J. M.; Dawson, W., E-mail: djbard@slac.stanford.edu

2016-03-10

The statistics of shear peaks have been shown to provide valuable cosmological information beyond the power spectrum, and will be an important constraint of models of cosmology in forthcoming astronomical surveys. Surveys include masked areas due to bright stars, bad pixels etc., which must be accounted for in producing constraints on cosmology from shear maps. We advocate a forward-modeling approach, where the impacts of masking and other survey artifacts are accounted for in the theoretical prediction of cosmological parameters, rather than correcting survey data to remove them. We use masks based on the Deep Lens Survey, and explore the impactmore » of up to 37% of the survey area being masked on LSST and DES-scale surveys. By reconstructing maps of aperture mass the masking effect is smoothed out, resulting in up to 14% smaller statistical uncertainties compared to simply reducing the survey area by the masked area. We show that, even in the presence of large survey masks, the bias in cosmological parameter estimation produced in the forward-modeling process is ≈1%, dominated by bias caused by limited simulation volume. We also explore how this potential bias scales with survey area and evaluate how much small survey areas are impacted by the differences in cosmological structure in the data and simulated volumes, due to cosmic variance.« less

Prediction of fish and sediment mercury in streams using landscape variables and historical mining.

PubMed

Alpers, Charles N; Yee, Julie L; Ackerman, Joshua T; Orlando, James L; Slotton, Darrel G; Marvin-DiPasquale, Mark C

2016-11-15

Widespread mercury (Hg) contamination of aquatic systems in the Sierra Nevada of California, U.S., is associated with historical use to enhance gold (Au) recovery by amalgamation. In areas affected by historical Au mining operations, including the western slope of the Sierra Nevada and downstream areas in northern California, such as San Francisco Bay and the Sacramento River-San Joaquin River Delta, microbial conversion of Hg to methylmercury (MeHg) leads to bioaccumulation of MeHg in food webs, and increased risks to humans and wildlife. This study focused on developing a predictive model for THg in stream fish tissue based on geospatial data, including land use/land cover data, and the distribution of legacy Au mines. Data on total mercury (THg) and MeHg concentrations in fish tissue and streambed sediment collected during 1980-2012 from stream sites in the Sierra Nevada, California were combined with geospatial data to estimate fish THg concentrations across the landscape. THg concentrations of five fish species (Brown Trout, Rainbow Trout, Sacramento Pikeminnow, Sacramento Sucker, and Smallmouth Bass) within stream sections were predicted using multi-model inference based on Akaike Information Criteria, using geospatial data for mining history and landscape characteristics as well as fish species and length (r(2)=0.61, p<0.001). Including THg concentrations in streambed sediment did not improve the model's fit, however including MeHg concentrations in streambed sediment, organic content (loss on ignition), and sediment grain size resulted in an improved fit (r(2)=0.63, p<0.001). These models can be used to estimate THg concentrations in stream fish based on landscape variables in the Sierra Nevada in areas where direct measurements of THg concentration in fish are unavailable. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Prediction of fish and sediment mercury in streams using landscape variables and historical mining

USGS Publications Warehouse

Alpers, Charles N.; Yee, Julie L.; Ackerman, Joshua T.; Orlando, James L.; Slotton, Darrell G.; Marvin-DiPasquale, Mark C.

2016-01-01

Widespread mercury (Hg) contamination of aquatic systems in the Sierra Nevada of California, U.S., is associated with historical use to enhance gold (Au) recovery by amalgamation. In areas affected by historical Au mining operations, including the western slope of the Sierra Nevada and downstream areas in northern California, such as San Francisco Bay and the Sacramento River–San Joaquin River Delta, microbial conversion of Hg to methylmercury (MeHg) leads to bioaccumulation of MeHg in food webs, and increased risks to humans and wildlife. This study focused on developing a predictive model for THg in stream fish tissue based on geospatial data, including land use/land cover data, and the distribution of legacy Au mines. Data on total mercury (THg) and MeHg concentrations in fish tissue and streambed sediment collected during 1980–2012 from stream sites in the Sierra Nevada, California were combined with geospatial data to estimate fish THg concentrations across the landscape. THg concentrations of five fish species (Brown Trout, Rainbow Trout, Sacramento Pikeminnow, Sacramento Sucker, and Smallmouth Bass) within stream sections were predicted using multi-model inference based on Akaike Information Criteria, using geospatial data for mining history and landscape characteristics as well as fish species and length (r2 = 0.61, p < 0.001). Including THg concentrations in streambed sediment did not improve the model's fit, however including MeHg concentrations in streambed sediment, organic content (loss on ignition), and sediment grain size resulted in an improved fit (r2 = 0.63, p < 0.001). These models can be used to estimate THg concentrations in stream fish based on landscape variables in the Sierra Nevada in areas where direct measurements of THg concentration in fish are unavailable.

Background Error Correlation Modeling with Diffusion Operators

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-01-01

RESPONSIBLE PERSON 19b. TELEPHONE NUMBER (Include area code) 07-10-2013 Book Chapter Background Error Correlation Modeling with Diffusion Operators...normalization Unclassified Unclassified Unclassified UU 27 Max Yaremchuk (228) 688-5259 Reset Chapter 8 Background error correlation modeling with diffusion ...field, then a structure like this simulates enhanced diffusive transport of model errors in the regions of strong cur- rents on the background of

Landslide susceptibility modeling applying machine learning methods: A case study from Longju in the Three Gorges Reservoir area, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Chao; Yin, Kunlong; Cao, Ying; Ahmed, Bayes; Li, Yuanyao; Catani, Filippo; Pourghasemi, Hamid Reza

2018-03-01

Landslide is a common natural hazard and responsible for extensive damage and losses in mountainous areas. In this study, Longju in the Three Gorges Reservoir area in China was taken as a case study for landslide susceptibility assessment in order to develop effective risk prevention and mitigation strategies. To begin, 202 landslides were identified, including 95 colluvial landslides and 107 rockfalls. Twelve landslide causal factor maps were prepared initially, and the relationship between these factors and each landslide type was analyzed using the information value model. Later, the unimportant factors were selected and eliminated using the information gain ratio technique. The landslide locations were randomly divided into two groups: 70% for training and 30% for verifying. Two machine learning models: the support vector machine (SVM) and artificial neural network (ANN), and a multivariate statistical model: the logistic regression (LR), were applied for landslide susceptibility modeling (LSM) for each type. The LSM index maps, obtained from combining the assessment results of the two landslide types, were classified into five levels. The performance of the LSMs was evaluated using the receiver operating characteristics curve and Friedman test. Results show that the elimination of noise-generating factors and the separated modeling of each landslide type have significantly increased the prediction accuracy. The machine learning models outperformed the multivariate statistical model and SVM model was found ideal for the case study area.

The Use of the Regional Navy Coastal Ocean Model (RNCOM) by the US Navy in Operational Oceanography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rayburn, J. T.

2016-02-01

The operational RNCOM is a 1/30° resolution nested model run daily by the Naval Oceanographic Office (NAVOCEANO), Stennis Space Center, Mississippi. Operational RNCOM areas are used in combination with the Global HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) to provide full global model coverage with enhanced resolution for temperature, salinity, currents in key areas. This talk will discuss two aspects of RNCOM. First, it will focus on how the model is configured. As a nested model, issues to consider include the source of boundary condition, boundary placement, and observational inputs. Secondly, this talk will focus on the strengths and weaknesses RNCOM demonstrates in accurately characterizing ocean condition with respect to HYCOM and how this regional model's output is used by NAVOCEANO Ocean Forecasters to develop operational forecasts.

Prioritizing Conservation of Ungulate Calving Resources in Multiple-Use Landscapes

PubMed Central

Dzialak, Matthew R.; Harju, Seth M.; Osborn, Robert G.; Wondzell, John J.; Hayden-Wing, Larry D.; Winstead, Jeffrey B.; Webb, Stephen L.

2011-01-01

Background Conserving animal populations in places where human activity is increasing is an ongoing challenge in many parts of the world. We investigated how human activity interacted with maternal status and individual variation in behavior to affect reliability of spatially-explicit models intended to guide conservation of critical ungulate calving resources. We studied Rocky Mountain elk (Cervus elaphus) that occupy a region where 2900 natural gas wells have been drilled. Methodology/Principal Findings We present novel applications of generalized additive modeling to predict maternal status based on movement, and of random-effects resource selection models to provide population and individual-based inference on the effects of maternal status and human activity. We used a 2×2 factorial design (treatment vs. control) that included elk that were either parturient or non-parturient and in areas either with or without industrial development. Generalized additive models predicted maternal status (parturiency) correctly 93% of the time based on movement. Human activity played a larger role than maternal status in shaping resource use; elk showed strong spatiotemporal patterns of selection or avoidance and marked individual variation in developed areas, but no such pattern in undeveloped areas. This difference had direct consequences for landscape-level conservation planning. When relative probability of use was calculated across the study area, there was disparity throughout 72–88% of the landscape in terms of where conservation intervention should be prioritized depending on whether models were based on behavior in developed areas or undeveloped areas. Model validation showed that models based on behavior in developed areas had poor predictive accuracy, whereas the model based on behavior in undeveloped areas had high predictive accuracy. Conclusions/Significance By directly testing for differences between developed and undeveloped areas, and by modeling resource selection in a random-effects framework that provided individual-based inference, we conclude that: 1) amplified selection or avoidance behavior and individual variation, as responses to increasing human activity, complicate conservation planning in multiple-use landscapes, and 2) resource selection behavior in places where human activity is predictable or less dynamic may provide a more reliable basis from which to prioritize conservation action. PMID:21297866

Zebrafish Caudal Fin Angiogenesis Assay—Advanced Quantitative Assessment Including 3-Way Correlative Microscopy

PubMed Central

Correa Shokiche, Carlos; Schaad, Laura; Triet, Ramona; Jazwinska, Anna; Tschanz, Stefan A.; Djonov, Valentin

2016-01-01

Background Researchers evaluating angiomodulating compounds as a part of scientific projects or pre-clinical studies are often confronted with limitations of applied animal models. The rough and insufficient early-stage compound assessment without reliable quantification of the vascular response counts, at least partially, to the low transition rate to clinics. Objective To establish an advanced, rapid and cost-effective angiogenesis assay for the precise and sensitive assessment of angiomodulating compounds using zebrafish caudal fin regeneration. It should provide information regarding the angiogenic mechanisms involved and should include qualitative and quantitative data of drug effects in a non-biased and time-efficient way. Approach & Results Basic vascular parameters (total regenerated area, vascular projection area, contour length, vessel area density) were extracted from in vivo fluorescence microscopy images using a stereological approach. Skeletonization of the vasculature by our custom-made software Skelios provided additional parameters including “graph energy” and “distance to farthest node”. The latter gave important insights into the complexity, connectivity and maturation status of the regenerating vascular network. The employment of a reference point (vascular parameters prior amputation) is unique for the model and crucial for a proper assessment. Additionally, the assay provides exceptional possibilities for correlative microscopy by combining in vivo-imaging and morphological investigation of the area of interest. The 3-way correlative microscopy links the dynamic changes in vivo with their structural substrate at the subcellular level. Conclusions The improved zebrafish fin regeneration model with advanced quantitative analysis and optional 3-way correlative morphology is a promising in vivo angiogenesis assay, well-suitable for basic research and preclinical investigations. PMID:26950851

Spatially Distributed Assimilation of Remotely Sensed Leaf Area Index and Potential Evapotranspiration for Hydrologic Modeling in Wetland Landscapes

EPA Science Inventory

Evapotranspiration (ET), a highly dynamic flux in wetland landscapes, regulates the accuracy of surface/sub-surface runoff simulation in a hydrologic model. However, considerable uncertainty in simulating ET-related processes remains, including our limited ability to incorporate ...

Using a Freshwater Lake Model Coupled with WRF for Dynamical Downscaling Applications

EPA Science Inventory

The ability to represent extremes in temperature and precipitation in regional climates (including those affected by inland lakes) has become an area of focus as regional climate models (RCMs) simulate smaller temporal and spatial scales. When using the Weather Research and Fore...

Preclinical pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic modeling and simulation in the pharmaceutical industry: an IQ consortium survey examining the current landscape.

PubMed

Schuck, Edgar; Bohnert, Tonika; Chakravarty, Arijit; Damian-Iordache, Valeriu; Gibson, Christopher; Hsu, Cheng-Pang; Heimbach, Tycho; Krishnatry, Anu Shilpa; Liederer, Bianca M; Lin, Jing; Maurer, Tristan; Mettetal, Jerome T; Mudra, Daniel R; Nijsen, Marjoleen Jma; Raybon, Joseph; Schroeder, Patricia; Schuck, Virna; Suryawanshi, Satyendra; Su, Yaming; Trapa, Patrick; Tsai, Alice; Vakilynejad, Majid; Wang, Shining; Wong, Harvey

2015-03-01

The application of modeling and simulation techniques is increasingly common in preclinical stages of the drug discovery and development process. A survey focusing on preclinical pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamics (PK/PD) analysis was conducted across pharmaceutical companies that are members of the International Consortium for Quality and Innovation in Pharmaceutical Development. Based on survey responses, ~68% of companies use preclinical PK/PD analysis in all therapeutic areas indicating its broad application. An important goal of preclinical PK/PD analysis in all pharmaceutical companies is for the selection/optimization of doses and/or dose regimens, including prediction of human efficacious doses. Oncology was the therapeutic area with the most PK/PD analysis support and where it showed the most impact. Consistent use of more complex systems pharmacology models and hybrid physiologically based pharmacokinetic models with PK/PD components was less common compared to traditional PK/PD models. Preclinical PK/PD analysis is increasingly being included in regulatory submissions with ~73% of companies including these data to some degree. Most companies (~86%) have seen impact of preclinical PK/PD analyses in drug development. Finally, ~59% of pharmaceutical companies have plans to expand their PK/PD modeling groups over the next 2 years indicating continued growth. The growth of preclinical PK/PD modeling groups in pharmaceutical industry is necessary to establish required resources and skills to further expand use of preclinical PK/PD modeling in a meaningful and impactful manner.

A hydroelastic model of hydrocephalus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smillie, Alan; Sobey, Ian; Molnar, Zoltan

2005-09-01

We combine elements of poroelasticity and of fluid mechanics to construct a mathematical model of the human brain and ventricular system. The model is used to study hydrocephalus, a pathological condition in which the normal flow of the cerebrospinal fluid is disturbed, causing the brain to become deformed. Our model extends recent work in this area by including flow through the aqueduct, by incorporating boundary conditions that we believe accurately represent the anatomy of the brain and by including time dependence. This enables us to construct a quantitative model of the onset, development and treatment of this condition. We formulate and solve the governing equations and boundary conditions for this model and give results that are relevant to clinical observations.

Gap probability - Measurements and models of a pecan orchard

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Strahler, Alan H.; Li, Xiaowen; Moody, Aaron; Liu, YI

1992-01-01

Measurements and models are compared for gap probability in a pecan orchard. Measurements are based on panoramic photographs of 50* by 135 view angle made under the canopy looking upwards at regular positions along transects between orchard trees. The gap probability model is driven by geometric parameters at two levels-crown and leaf. Crown level parameters include the shape of the crown envelope and spacing of crowns; leaf level parameters include leaf size and shape, leaf area index, and leaf angle, all as functions of canopy position.

Dynamic analysis of space structures including elastic, multibody, and control behavior

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pinson, Larry; Soosaar, Keto

1989-01-01

The problem is to develop analysis methods, modeling stategies, and simulation tools to predict with assurance the on-orbit performance and integrity of large complex space structures that cannot be verified on the ground. The problem must incorporate large reliable structural models, multi-body flexible dynamics, multi-tier controller interaction, environmental models including 1g and atmosphere, various on-board disturbances, and linkage to mission-level performance codes. All areas are in serious need of work, but the weakest link is multi-body flexible dynamics.

Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California.

PubMed

Mann, Michael L; Batllori, Enric; Moritz, Max A; Waller, Eric K; Berck, Peter; Flint, Alan L; Flint, Lorraine E; Dolfi, Emmalee

2016-01-01

The costly interactions between humans and wildfires throughout California demonstrate the need to understand the relationships between them, especially in the face of a changing climate and expanding human communities. Although a number of statistical and process-based wildfire models exist for California, there is enormous uncertainty about the location and number of future fires, with previously published estimates of increases ranging from nine to fifty-three percent by the end of the century. Our goal is to assess the role of climate and anthropogenic influences on the state's fire regimes from 1975 to 2050. We develop an empirical model that integrates estimates of biophysical indicators relevant to plant communities and anthropogenic influences at each forecast time step. Historically, we find that anthropogenic influences account for up to fifty percent of explanatory power in the model. We also find that the total area burned is likely to increase, with burned area expected to increase by 2.2 and 5.0 percent by 2050 under climatic bookends (PCM and GFDL climate models, respectively). Our two climate models show considerable agreement, but due to potential shifts in rainfall patterns, substantial uncertainty remains for the semiarid inland deserts and coastal areas of the south. Given the strength of human-related variables in some regions, however, it is clear that comprehensive projections of future fire activity should include both anthropogenic and biophysical influences. Previous findings of substantially increased numbers of fires and burned area for California may be tied to omitted variable bias from the exclusion of human influences. The omission of anthropogenic variables in our model would overstate the importance of climatic ones by at least 24%. As such, the failure to include anthropogenic effects in many models likely overstates the response of wildfire to climatic change.

Developing Remote Sensing Products for Monitoring and Modeling Great Lakes Coastal Wetland Vulnerability to Climate Change and Land Use

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bourgeau-Chavez, L. L.; Miller, M. E.; Battaglia, M.; Banda, E.; Endres, S.; Currie, W. S.; Elgersma, K. J.; French, N. H. F.; Goldberg, D. E.; Hyndman, D. W.

2014-12-01

Spread of invasive plant species in the coastal wetlands of the Great Lakes is degrading wetland habitat, decreasing biodiversity, and decreasing ecosystem services. An understanding of the mechanisms of invasion is crucial to gaining control of this growing threat. To better understand the effects of land use and climatic drivers on the vulnerability of coastal zones to invasion, as well as to develop an understanding of the mechanisms of invasion, research is being conducted that integrates field studies, process-based ecosystem and hydrological models, and remote sensing. Spatial data from remote sensing is needed to parameterize the hydrological model and to test the outputs of the linked models. We will present several new remote sensing products that are providing important physiological, biochemical, and landscape information to parameterize and verify models. This includes a novel hybrid radar-optical technique to delineate stands of invasives, as well as natural wetland cover types; using radar to map seasonally inundated areas not hydrologically connected; and developing new algorithms to estimate leaf area index (LAI) using Landsat. A coastal map delineating wetland types including monocultures of the invaders (Typha spp. and Phragmites austrailis) was created using satellite radar (ALOS PALSAR, 20 m resolution) and optical data (Landsat 5, 30 m resolution) fusion from multiple dates in a Random Forests classifier. These maps provide verification of the integrated model showing areas at high risk of invasion. For parameterizing the hydrological model, maps of seasonal wetness are being developed using spring (wet) imagery and differencing that with summer (dry) imagery to detect the seasonally wet areas. Finally, development of LAI remote sensing high resolution algorithms for uplands and wetlands is underway. LAI algorithms for wetlands have not been previously developed due to the difficulty of a water background. These products are being used to improve the hydrological model through higher resolution products and parameterization of variables that have previously been largely unknown.

Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California

PubMed Central

Batllori, Enric; Moritz, Max A.; Waller, Eric K.; Berck, Peter; Flint, Alan L.; Flint, Lorraine E.; Dolfi, Emmalee

2016-01-01

The costly interactions between humans and wildfires throughout California demonstrate the need to understand the relationships between them, especially in the face of a changing climate and expanding human communities. Although a number of statistical and process-based wildfire models exist for California, there is enormous uncertainty about the location and number of future fires, with previously published estimates of increases ranging from nine to fifty-three percent by the end of the century. Our goal is to assess the role of climate and anthropogenic influences on the state’s fire regimes from 1975 to 2050. We develop an empirical model that integrates estimates of biophysical indicators relevant to plant communities and anthropogenic influences at each forecast time step. Historically, we find that anthropogenic influences account for up to fifty percent of explanatory power in the model. We also find that the total area burned is likely to increase, with burned area expected to increase by 2.2 and 5.0 percent by 2050 under climatic bookends (PCM and GFDL climate models, respectively). Our two climate models show considerable agreement, but due to potential shifts in rainfall patterns, substantial uncertainty remains for the semiarid inland deserts and coastal areas of the south. Given the strength of human-related variables in some regions, however, it is clear that comprehensive projections of future fire activity should include both anthropogenic and biophysical influences. Previous findings of substantially increased numbers of fires and burned area for California may be tied to omitted variable bias from the exclusion of human influences. The omission of anthropogenic variables in our model would overstate the importance of climatic ones by at least 24%. As such, the failure to include anthropogenic effects in many models likely overstates the response of wildfire to climatic change. PMID:27124597

Benthic processes and coastal aquaculture: merging models and field data at a local scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brigolin, Daniele; Rabouille, Christophe; Bombled, Bruno; Colla, Silvia; Pastres, Roberto; Pranovi, Fabio

2016-04-01

Shellfish farming is regarded as an organic extractive aquaculture activity. However, the production of faeces and pseudofaeces, in fact, leads to a net transfer of organic matter from the water column to the surface sediment. This process, which is expected to locally affect the sediment biogeochemistry, may also cause relevant changes in coastal areas characterized by a high density of farms. In this paper, we present the result of a study recently carried out in the Gulf of Venice (northern Adriatic sea), combining mathematical modelling and field sampling efforts. The work aimed at using a longline mussel farm as an in-situ test-case for modelling the differences in soft sediments biogeochemical processes along a gradient of organic deposition. We used an existing integrated model, allowing to describe biogeochemical fluxes towards the mussel farm and to predict the extent of the deposition area underneath it. The model framework includes an individual-based population dynamic model of the Mediterranean mussel coupled with a Lagrangian deposition model and a 1D benthic model of early diagenesis. The work was articulated in 3 steps: 1) the integrated model allowed to simulate the downward fluxes of organic matter originated by the farm, and the extent of its deposition area; 2) based on the first model application, two stations were localized, at which sediment cores were collected during a field campaign, carried out in June 2015. Measurements included O2 and pH microprofiling, porosity and micro-porosity, Total Organic Carbon, and pore waters NH4, PO4, SO4, Alkalinity, and Dissolved Inorganic Carbon; 3) two distinct early diagenesis models were set-up, reproducing observed field data in the sampled cores. Observed oxygen microprofiles showed a different behavior underneath the farm with respect to the outside reference station. In particular, a remarkable decrease in the oxygen penetration depth, and an increase in the O2 influx calculated from the concentration gradients were observed. The integrated model described above allowed to extend the simulation over the entire farmed area, and to explore the response of the prediction to changes in water temperature.

Simulation of population-based commuter exposure to NO₂ using different air pollution models.

PubMed

Ragettli, Martina S; Tsai, Ming-Yi; Braun-Fahrländer, Charlotte; de Nazelle, Audrey; Schindler, Christian; Ineichen, Alex; Ducret-Stich, Regina E; Perez, Laura; Probst-Hensch, Nicole; Künzli, Nino; Phuleria, Harish C

2014-05-12

We simulated commuter routes and long-term exposure to traffic-related air pollution during commute in a representative population sample in Basel (Switzerland), and evaluated three air pollution models with different spatial resolution for estimating commute exposures to nitrogen dioxide (NO2) as a marker of long-term exposure to traffic-related air pollution. Our approach includes spatially and temporally resolved data on actual commuter routes, travel modes and three air pollution models. Annual mean NO2 commuter exposures were similar between models. However, we found more within-city and within-subject variability in annual mean (±SD) NO2 commuter exposure with a high resolution dispersion model (40 ± 7 µg m(-3), range: 21-61) than with a dispersion model with a lower resolution (39 ± 5 µg m(-3); range: 24-51), and a land use regression model (41 ± 5 µg m(-3); range: 24-54). Highest median cumulative exposures were calculated along motorized transport and bicycle routes, and the lowest for walking. For estimating commuter exposure within a city and being interested also in small-scale variability between roads, a model with a high resolution is recommended. For larger scale epidemiological health assessment studies, models with a coarser spatial resolution are likely sufficient, especially when study areas include suburban and rural areas.

Effect of small versus large clusters of fish school on the yield of a purse-seine small pelagic fishery including a marine protected area.

PubMed

Hieu, Nguyen Trong; Brochier, Timothée; Tri, Nguyen-Huu; Auger, Pierre; Brehmer, Patrice

2014-09-01

We consider a fishery model with two sites: (1) a marine protected area (MPA) where fishing is prohibited and (2) an area where the fish population is harvested. We assume that fish can migrate from MPA to fishing area at a very fast time scale and fish spatial organisation can change from small to large clusters of school at a fast time scale. The growth of the fish population and the catch are assumed to occur at a slow time scale. The complete model is a system of five ordinary differential equations with three time scales. We take advantage of the time scales using aggregation of variables methods to derive a reduced model governing the total fish density and fishing effort at the slow time scale. We analyze this aggregated model and show that under some conditions, there exists an equilibrium corresponding to a sustainable fishery. Our results suggest that in small pelagic fisheries the yield is maximum for a fish population distributed among both small and large clusters of school.

A GIS-based DRASTIC model for assessing intrinsic groundwater vulnerability in northeastern Missan governorate, southern Iraq

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Al-Abadi, Alaa M.; Al-Shamma'a, Ayser M.; Aljabbari, Mukdad H.

2017-03-01

In this study, intrinsic groundwater vulnerability for the shallow aquifer in northeastern Missan governorate, south of Iraq is evaluated using commonly used DRASTIC model in framework of GIS environment. Preparation of DRASTIC parameters is attained through gathering data from different sources including field survey, geological and meteorological data, a digital elevation model DEM of the study area, archival database, and published research. The different data used to build DRASTIC model are arranged in a geospatial database using spatial analyst extension of ArcGIS 10.2 software. The obtained results related to the vulnerability to general contaminants show that the study area is characterized by two vulnerability zones: low and moderate. Ninety-four percentage (94 %) of the study area has a low class of groundwater vulnerability to contamination, whereas a total of (6 %) of the study area has moderate vulnerability. The pesticides DRASTIC index map shows that the study area is also characterized by two zones of vulnerability: low and moderate. The DRASTIC map of this version clearly shows that small percentage (13 %) of the study area has low vulnerability to contamination, and most parts have moderate vulnerability (about 87 %). The final results indicate that the aquifer system in the interested area is relatively protected from contamination on the groundwater surface. To mitigate the contamination risks in the moderate vulnerability zones, a protective measure must be put before exploiting the aquifer and before comprehensive agricultural activities begin in the area.

Contribution of ground surface altitude difference to thermal anomaly detection using satellite images: Application to volcanic/geothermal complexes in the Andes of Central Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gutiérrez, Francisco J.; Lemus, Martín; Parada, Miguel A.; Benavente, Oscar M.; Aguilera, Felipe A.

2012-09-01

Detection of thermal anomalies in volcanic-geothermal areas using remote sensing methodologies requires the subtraction of temperatures, not provided by geothermal manifestations (e.g. hot springs, fumaroles, active craters), from satellite image kinetic temperature, which is assumed to correspond to the ground surface temperature. Temperatures that have been subtracted in current models include those derived from the atmospheric transmittance, reflectance of the Earth's surface (albedo), topography effect, thermal inertia and geographic position effect. We propose a model that includes a new parameter (K) that accounts for the variation of temperature with ground surface altitude difference in areas where steep relief exists. The proposed model was developed and applied, using ASTER satellite images, in two Andean volcanic/geothermal complexes (Descabezado Grande-Cerro Azul Volcanic Complex and Planchón-Peteroa-Azufre Volcanic Complex) where field data of atmosphere and ground surface temperature as well as radiation for albedo calibration were obtained in 10 selected sites. The study area was divided into three zones (Northern, Central and Southern zones) where the thermal anomalies were obtained independently. K value calculated for night images of the three zones are better constrained and resulted to be very similar to the Environmental Lapse Rate (ELR) determined for a stable atmosphere (ELR > 7 °C/km). Using the proposed model, numerous thermal anomalies in areas of ≥ 90 m × 90 m were identified that were successfully cross-checked in the field. Night images provide more reliable information for thermal anomaly detection than day images because they record higher temperature contrast between geothermal areas and its surroundings and correspond to more stable atmospheric condition at the time of image acquisition.

Model velocities assessment and HF radar data assimilation in the Ibiza Channel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hernandez Lasheras, Jaime; Mourre, Baptiste; Reyes, Emma; Marmain, Julien; Orfila, Alejandro; Tintoré, Joaquin

2017-04-01

High Frequency Radar (HFR) provides continuous and high-resolution surface current measurements over wide coastal areas, enabling the observation of dynamic processes at the atmosphere-ocean interface, where a lot of momentum and heat exchange takes place, which is still not fully understood. Furthermore, HFR data provide critical information to improve numerical model predictions through data assimilation. However, the routine assimilation of HFR surface current data in operational models is still a challenge from both the methodological and computational points of view. Since 2012, SOCIB, the Balearic Islands Coastal Observing and Forecasting System, operates two coastal HFR sites with the purpose of monitoring the surface currents of the Ibiza Channel (Western Mediterranean Sea). It is an area characterized by important meridional flow exchanges with significant impacts on ecosystems. The circulation in the Ibiza Channel results from the complex interaction of different water masses under strong topographic constraints. This makes the area very challenging from the point of view of numerical modeling. Indeed, models are generally found to represent erroneous flows across this section. In this work, we perform the first steps to evaluate the potential of HFR data to improve the model circulation in the Ibiza Channel area with data assimilation. A multimodel Ensemble Optimal Interpolation scheme has been coupled to the SOCIB Western Mediterranean Operational Model (WMOP) to assimilate multiplatform observations, including the HFR surface velocities. WMOP is a 2-km resolution configuration of the ROMS model using CMEMS numerical products as initial and boundary conditions and high-resolution surface forcing from the Spanish Meteorological Agency. To evaluate whether the model properly captures the main dynamical features observed in the Ibiza Channel (which is a prerequisite for a successful data assimilation), comparison of spatial empirical orthogonal function (EOF) patterns from HFR observations and from model results have been performed. Results show good agreement between the two first modes of variability of both data sets, which explain the north-south and east-west flows, respectively. The comparison with ADCP data in the HFR coverage area shows also good agreement with the main vertical modes of the model at the first 120 m. In our approach, model error covariances are estimated by sampling three long-run simulations of the WMOP system with different initial/boundary forcing and mixing parameters. Vertical correlations in the HFR coverage area are validated using ADCP measurements at the mooring. As expected, correlations decrease with depth both in the model as well as with the ADCP data. The agreement is found to vary with the season and the velocity component under consideration. The first results of multiplatform data assimilation experiments using this modelling setup and including HFR, SST, SSH and in situ profiles will then be presented.

Courthouse Prototype Building

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Malhotra, Mini; New, Joshua Ryan; Im, Piljae

As part of DOE's support of ANSI/ASHRAE/IES Standard 90.1 and IECC, researchers at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) apply a suite of prototype buildings covering 80% of the commercial building floor area in the U.S. for new construction. Efforts have started on expanding the prototype building suite to cover 90% of the commercial building floor area in the U.S., by developing prototype models for additional building types including place of worship, public order and safety, public assembly. Courthouse is courthouse is a sub-category under the “Public Order and Safety" building type category; other sub-categories include police station, fire station, andmore » jail, reformatory or penitentiary.ORNL used building design guides, databases, and documented courthouse projects, supplemented by personal communication with courthouse facility planning and design experts, to systematically conduct research on the courthouse building and system characteristics. This report documents the research conducted for the courthouse building type and proposes building and system characteristics for developing a prototype building energy model to be included in the Commercial Building Prototype Model suite. According to the 2012 CBECS, courthouses occupy a total of 436 million sqft of floor space or 0.5% of the total floor space in all commercial buildings in the US, next to fast food (0.35%), grocery store or food market (0.88%), and restaurant or cafeteria (1.2%) building types currently included in the Commercial Prototype Building Model suite. Considering aggregated average, courthouse falls among the larger with a mean floor area of 69,400 sqft smaller fuel consumption intensity building types and an average of 94.7 kBtu/sqft compared to 77.8 kBtu/sqft for office and 80 kBtu/sqft for all commercial buildings.Courthouses range in size from 1000 sqft to over a million square foot building gross square feet and 1 courtroom to over 100 courtrooms. Small courthouses represent a majority of courthouse buildings. However, collectively they comprise a small fraction of total courthouse floor area in the US. Spaces and operation of courthouse also varies depending on the court type (federal court vs state court; district, appellate, versus Supreme Court) and jurisdiction (general jurisdiction, general jurisdiction trial, or special courts). Based on the statistics on courthouses, general jurisdiction trial court is considered for the prototype model. The model is assumed to be a 4-courtroom, small, 72,000 sqft three-story building including a ground level/ basement.« less

Model Curriculum Emphasizing Transition: A Curriculum Planning Guide for Students with Mild Disabilities.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Andersen, Lee; And Others

This curriculum emphasizes successful transition from school to work and to a quality adult life for students with mild disabilities. The curriculum includes a scope and sequence outlining 11 subject matter content areas, covering tasks appropriate for learners from a developmental age of 1 month to 21 years. The 11 content areas include…

Using the Gravity Model to Delineate a Trade Area: A Class Project.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dzik, Anthony J.

1992-01-01

Reports that students who might be bored or intimidated by economic geographic theory become enthusiastic when they can apply it to their own experiences. Describes a class project involving fieldwork and in-class analysis on delineating the retail trade area of a small Ohio city. Includes three maps and mathematical formulae for data analysis.…

Towards a Context-Aware Proactive Decision Support Framework

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-11-15

initiative that has developed text analytic technology that crosses the semantic gap into the area of event recognition and representation. The...recognizing operational context, and techniques for recognizing context shift. Additional research areas include: • Adequately capturing users...Universal Interaction Context Ontology [12] might serve as a foundation • Instantiating formal models of decision making based on information seeking

Business Marketing Information Systems Skills. Voc-Ed Project. Marketing Management Career Area. Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Milwaukee Area Technical Coll., WI.

A study was conducted to develop a curriculum to meet the information processing/management training needs of persons entering or continuing careers in the information marketing area. The process used for the study was based on Stufflebeam's Context, Input, Process, Product (CIPP) model of evaluation. The information gathering process included a…

Sarcopenia as a predictor of mortality in elderly blunt trauma patients: Comparing the masseter to the psoas using computed tomography.

PubMed

Wallace, James D; Calvo, Richard Y; Lewis, Paul R; Brill, Jason B; Shackford, Steven R; Sise, Michael J; Sise, C Beth; Bansal, Vishal

2017-01-01

Sarcopenia, or age-related loss of muscle mass, is measurable by computed tomography (CT). In elderly trauma patients, increased mortality is associated with decreased psoas muscle cross-sectional area (P-Area) on abdominal CT. Fall is the leading cause of injury in the elderly, and head CT is more often obtained. Masseter muscle cross-sectional area (M-Area) is readily measured on head CT. Hypothesizing that M-Area is a satisfactory surrogate for P-Area, we compared the two as markers of sarcopenia and increased mortality in elderly trauma patients. All blunt-injured patients aged 65 years or older admitted to our trauma center during 2010 were included. Two-year postdischarge mortality was identified by matching records to county, state, and national death indices. Bilateral M-Area was measured on admission head CT at 2 cm below the zygomatic arch. Bilateral P-Area was measured on abdominal CT at the fourth vertebral body. Average M-Area and P-Area values were calculated for each patient. Cox proportional hazards models evaluated the relationship of M-Area and P-Area with mortality. Model predictive performance was calculated using concordance statistics. Among 487 patients, 357 with M-Area and 226 with P-Area were identified. Females had smaller M-Area (3.43 cm vs 4.18 cm; p < 0.050) and P-Area (6.50 cm vs 10.9 cm; p < 0.050) than males. Masseter muscle cross-sectional area correlated with P-Area (rho, 0.38; p < 0.001). Adjusted Cox regression models revealed decreased survival associated with declining M-Area (hazard ratio, 0.76; 95% confidence interval, 0.60-0.96) and P-Area (hazard ratio, 0.68; 95% confidence interval, 0.46-1.00). Masseter muscle cross-sectional area and P-Area discriminated equally well in best-fit models. In elderly trauma patients, M-Area is an equally valid and more readily available marker of sarcopenia and 2-year mortality than P-Area. Future study should validate M-Area as a metric to identify at-risk patients who may benefit from early intervention. Prognostic study, level III.

Application of geoinformation techniques in sustainable development of marginal rural

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leszczynska, G.

2009-04-01

The basic objective of the studies is to create a geographic information system that would assure integration of activities aimed at protecting biological diversity with sustainable development of marginal rural areas through defining the conditions for development of tourism and recreation in the identified areas. The choice of that solution is a consequence of the fact that numerous phenomena and processes presented in maps are linked to functional relations or they can be viewed as functions of space, time and attributes. The paper presents the system development stage aimed at elaborating the template for the system serving solution of the above-presented problem. In case of this issue the geographic information system will be developed to support development of marginal rural areas through selection of appropriate forms of tourism for the endangered areas including indication of locations for development of appropriate tourist infrastructure. Selection of the appropriate form of tourism will depend on natural, tourist and infrastructure values present in a given area and conditioned by the need to present the biodiversity component present in those areas together with elements of traditional agricultural landscape. The most important problem is to reconcile two seemingly contradictory aims: 1. Preventing social and economic marginalization of the restructured rural areas. 2. Preserving biological diversity in the restructured areas.Agriculture influences many aspects of the natural environment such as water resources, biodiversity and status of natural habitats, status of soils, landscape and, in a wider context, the climate. Project implementation will involve application of technologies allowing analysis of the systems for managing marginal rural areas as spatial models based on geographic information systems. Modelling of marginal rural areas management using the GIS technologies will involve creating spatial models of actual objects. On the basis of data on location, properties of attributes and mutual relations of objects analyses of synergic influence of specific development forms on the environment and development of rural areas will be carried out. The important aspect here is the possibility of linking the phenomena and processes presented in maps with functional relations, including the space and time function. Application of that solution will allow analysis of actual marginal rural areas management system as a model of object and it will allow application of artificial intelligence as decision support tool. The system designed in that way will be characterized by the following properties: - it will be modelled and built of mutually communicating objects implemented by software using special object types. - division of the software into objects will facilitate its analysis. - dynamic properties of object structures: polymorphism, hermetization and implementation of methods in object structure will be applied. - objects will be used as the set of system model elements, which will assure ease of its modification. - specialization of classes will be introduced by means of inheritance of fields and methods [Muller, 2000]. The applied methods of object design coupled with GIS use should allow integration of marginal rural areas management according to the principle of sustainable development.

Modeling Integrated Cave Drip Recharge Data using DReAM (Daily Recharge Assessment Model) in a Dry Eastern Mediterranean Area, Sif Cave - Israel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anker, Y.; Sheffer, N. A.; Scanlon, B. R.; Gimburg, A.; Morin, E.

2010-12-01

Understanding recharge mechanisms and controls in karst regions is extremely important for managing water resources because of the dynamic nature of the system. To better understand this mechanism, a cave in the recharge area of the karstic Western Mountain Aquifer (WMA) of Israel was equipped to measure precipitation infiltration (2006-2008) by collecting integrated water drips from three areas in the cave (14, 46, and 52 m2 areas). Barrels equipped with pressure transducers record drip rate and volume for each of the three areas and enable estimation of recharge. A water budget model - DReAM (Daily Recharge Assessment Model) was used to quantify and predict infiltration behavior at the cave. DReAM includes calculations of all water cycle components - precipitation, evapotranspiration, runoff and recharge. The model was calibrated and validated using two independent sets of values, providing good agreement between calculated and observed data. Modeling results agree with previous studies that show: 1) three distinct flow paths (slow, intermediate, and fast flows) of water infiltrating at the cave; 2) a threshold of ~100 mm rain at the beginning of the rainy season for infiltration to begin; and 3) a decrease in lag time between rain events and infiltration response throughout the rainy season. This modeling tool and analysis approach can translate precipitation to groundwater recharge which will be very important for projecting future water resources in response to climate variability.

Influence of drug-light-interval on photodynamic therapy of port wine stains--simulation and validation of mathematic models.

PubMed

Huang, Naiyan; Cheng, Gang; Li, Xiaosong; Gu, Ying; Liu, Fanguang; Zhong, Qiuhai; Wang, Ying; Zen, Jin; Qiu, Haixia; Chen, Hongxia

2008-06-01

We established mathematical models of photodynamic therapy (PDT) on port wine stains (PWS) to observe the effect of drug-light-interval (DLI) and optimize light dose. The mathematical simulations included determining (1) the distribution of laser light by Monte Carlo model, (2) the change of photosensitizer concentration in PWS vessels by a pharmacokinetics equation, (3) the change of photosensitizer distribution in tissue outside the vessels by a diffuse equation and photobleaching equation, and (4) the change of tissue oxygen concentration by the Fick's law with a consideration of the oxygen consumption during PDT. The concentration of singlet oxygen in the tissue model was calculated by the finite difference method. To validate those models, a PWS lesion of the same patient was divided into two areas and subjected to different DLIs and treated with different energy density. The color of lesion was assessed 8-12 weeks later. The simulation indicated the singlet oxygen concentration of the second treatment area (DLI=40 min) was lower than that of the first treatment area (DLI=0 min). However, it would be increased to a level similar to that of the first treatment area if the light irradiation time of the second treatment area was prolonged from 40 min to 55 min. Clinical results were consistent with the results predicted by the mathematical models. The mathematical models established in this study are helpful to optimize clinical protocol.

Second Generation Crop Yield Models Review

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hodges, T. (Principal Investigator)

1982-01-01

Second generation yield models, including crop growth simulation models and plant process models, may be suitable for large area crop yield forecasting in the yield model development project. Subjective and objective criteria for model selection are defined and models which might be selected are reviewed. Models may be selected to provide submodels as input to other models; for further development and testing; or for immediate testing as forecasting tools. A plant process model may range in complexity from several dozen submodels simulating (1) energy, carbohydrates, and minerals; (2) change in biomass of various organs; and (3) initiation and development of plant organs, to a few submodels simulating key physiological processes. The most complex models cannot be used directly in large area forecasting but may provide submodels which can be simplified for inclusion into simpler plant process models. Both published and unpublished models which may be used for development or testing are reviewed. Several other models, currently under development, may become available at a later date.

Transferability of species distribution models: a functional habitat approach for two regionally threatened butterflies.

PubMed

Vanreusel, Wouter; Maes, Dirk; Van Dyck, Hans

2007-02-01

Numerous models for predicting species distribution have been developed for conservation purposes. Most of them make use of environmental data (e.g., climate, topography, land use) at a coarse grid resolution (often kilometres). Such approaches are useful for conservation policy issues including reserve-network selection. The efficiency of predictive models for species distribution is usually tested on the area for which they were developed. Although highly interesting from the point of view of conservation efficiency, transferability of such models to independent areas is still under debate. We tested the transferability of habitat-based predictive distribution models for two regionally threatened butterflies, the green hairstreak (Callophrys rubi) and the grayling (Hipparchia semele), within and among three nature reserves in northeastern Belgium. We built predictive models based on spatially detailed maps of area-wide distribution and density of ecological resources. We used resources directly related to ecological functions (host plants, nectar sources, shelter, microclimate) rather than environmental surrogate variables. We obtained models that performed well with few resource variables. All models were transferable--although to different degrees--among the independent areas within the same broad geographical region. We argue that habitat models based on essential functional resources could transfer better in space than models that use indirect environmental variables. Because functional variables can easily be interpreted and even be directly affected by terrain managers, these models can be useful tools to guide species-adapted reserve management.

Diagnostic Studies with GLA Fields

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Salstein, David A.

1997-01-01

Assessments of the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System-1 Data Assimilation System(GEOS-1 DAS), regarding heating rates, energetics, and angular momentum quantities were made. These diagnostics can be viewed as measures of climate variability. Comparisons with the NOAA/NCEP reanalysis system of momentum and energetics diagnostics are included. Water vapor and angular momentum are diagnosed in many models, including those of NASA, as part of the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project. 'Me GEOS-I and NOAA/NCEP global atmospheric angular momentum values are coherent on time scales down to about three days. Furthermore, they agree with the series of Earth angular momentum, as measured by tiny fluctuations in the rotation rate of the Earth, as variations in the length of day. The torques that effect such changes in atmospheric and Earth momentum are dominated by the influence of particular mountain systems, including the Rockies, Himalayas, and Andes, upon mountain torques on time scales shorter than about two weeks. Other project areas included collaboration with Goddard Space Flight Center to examine the impact of mountainous areas and the treatments of parameterizations on diagnoses of the atmosphere. Relevant preprints are included herein.

Simulation analysis of the ground-water system in Mesozoic rocks in the Four Corners area, Utah, Colorado, Arizona, and New Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thomas, B.E.

1989-01-01

The steady-state groundwater system in Mesozoic rocks in the Four Corners area, Utah, Colorado, Arizona, and New Mexico, was simulated with a finite-difference digital-computer model to improve the understanding of the system. The simulated area is 4 ,100 sq mi, and it includes three aquifers. The Entrada-Navajo aquifer includes the Wingate, Navajo, and Entrada Sandstones. The Morrison aquifer includes the sandstone units of the Morrison Formation. The Dakota aquifer includes the Burro Canyon Formation and Dakota Sandstone. The simulation of the groundwater system had a mean error (error is absolute value of residual) of 70 ft for the Entrada-Navajo aquifer, 67 ft for the Morrison aquifer and 79 ft for the Dakota aquifer. The hydraulic conductivity used in the simulation ranged from 0.38 to 0.47 ft/day. Simulated inflow to the groundwater system was 30,000 acre-ft/yr. 48% of the inflow is from infiltration of precipitation within the simulated area, and 42% is from infiltration in 145 sq mi of mountain areas adjacent to the simulated area. Simulations indicated that some vertical inflow of water is needed between the Entrada-Navajo and Morrison aquifers to develop a reasonable representation of the system. (USGS)

(Draft) Community air pollution and mortality: Analysis of 1980 data from US metropolitan areas

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lipfert, F.W.

1992-11-01

1980 data from up to 149 metropolitan areas were used to define cross-sectional associations between community air pollution and ``excess`` human mortality. The regression model proposed by Ozkaynak and Thurston (1987), which accounted for age, race, education, poverty, and population density, was evaluated and several new models were developed. The new models also accounted for migration, drinking water hardness, and smoking, and included a more detailed description of race. Cause-of-death categories analyzed include all causes, all ``non-external`` causes, major cardiovascular diseases, and chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases (COPD). Both annual mortality rates and their logarithms were analyzed. Air quality data weremore » obtained from the EPA AIRS database (TSP, SO{sub 4}{sup =}, Mn, and ozone) and from the inhalable particulate network (PM{sub 15}, PM{sub 2.5} and SO{sub 4}{sup =}, for 63{sup 4} locations). The data on particulates were averaged across all monitoring stations available for each SMSA and the TSP data were restricted to the year 1980. The associations between mortality and air pollution were found to be dependent on the socioeconomic factors included in the models, the specific locations included in the data set, and the type of statistical model used. Statistically significant associations were found as follows: between TSP and mortality due to non-external causes with log-linear models, but not with a linear model betweenestimated 10-year average (1980--90) ozone levels and 1980 non-external and cardiovascular deaths; and between TSP and COPD mortality for both linear and log-linear models. When the sulfate contribution to TSP was subtracted, the relationship with COPD mortality was strengthened.« less

(Draft) Community air pollution and mortality: Analysis of 1980 data from US metropolitan areas

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lipfert, F.W.

1992-11-01

1980 data from up to 149 metropolitan areas were used to define cross-sectional associations between community air pollution and excess'' human mortality. The regression model proposed by Ozkaynak and Thurston (1987), which accounted for age, race, education, poverty, and population density, was evaluated and several new models were developed. The new models also accounted for migration, drinking water hardness, and smoking, and included a more detailed description of race. Cause-of-death categories analyzed include all causes, all non-external'' causes, major cardiovascular diseases, and chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases (COPD). Both annual mortality rates and their logarithms were analyzed. Air quality data weremore » obtained from the EPA AIRS database (TSP, SO[sub 4][sup =], Mn, and ozone) and from the inhalable particulate network (PM[sub 15], PM[sub 2.5] and SO[sub 4][sup =], for 63[sup 4] locations). The data on particulates were averaged across all monitoring stations available for each SMSA and the TSP data were restricted to the year 1980. The associations between mortality and air pollution were found to be dependent on the socioeconomic factors included in the models, the specific locations included in the data set, and the type of statistical model used. Statistically significant associations were found as follows: between TSP and mortality due to non-external causes with log-linear models, but not with a linear model betweenestimated 10-year average (1980--90) ozone levels and 1980 non-external and cardiovascular deaths; and between TSP and COPD mortality for both linear and log-linear models. When the sulfate contribution to TSP was subtracted, the relationship with COPD mortality was strengthened.« less

Advancing understanding of affect labeling with dynamic causal modeling

PubMed Central

Torrisi, Salvatore J.; Lieberman, Matthew D.; Bookheimer, Susan Y.; Altshuler, Lori L.

2013-01-01

Mechanistic understandings of forms of incidental emotion regulation have implications for basic and translational research in the affective sciences. In this study we applied Dynamic Causal Modeling (DCM) for fMRI to a common paradigm of labeling facial affect to elucidate prefrontal to subcortical influences. Four brain regions were used to model affect labeling, including right ventrolateral prefrontal cortex (vlPFC), amygdala and Broca’s area. 64 models were compared, for each of 45 healthy subjects. Family level inference split the model space to a likely driving input and Bayesian Model Selection within the winning family of 32 models revealed a strong pattern of endogenous network connectivity. Modulatory effects of labeling were most prominently observed following Bayesian Model Averaging, with the dampening influence on amygdala originating from Broca’s area but much more strongly from right vlPFC. These results solidify and extend previous correlation and regression-based estimations of negative corticolimbic coupling. PMID:23774393

MODFLOW-LGR: Practical application to a large regional dataset

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barnes, D.; Coulibaly, K. M.

2011-12-01

In many areas of the US, including southwest Florida, large regional-scale groundwater models have been developed to aid in decision making and water resources management. These models are subsequently used as a basis for site-specific investigations. Because the large scale of these regional models is not appropriate for local application, refinement is necessary to analyze the local effects of pumping wells and groundwater related projects at specific sites. The most commonly used approach to date is Telescopic Mesh Refinement or TMR. It allows the extraction of a subset of the large regional model with boundary conditions derived from the regional model results. The extracted model is then updated and refined for local use using a variable sized grid focused on the area of interest. MODFLOW-LGR, local grid refinement, is an alternative approach which allows model discretization at a finer resolution in areas of interest and provides coupling between the larger "parent" model and the locally refined "child." In the present work, these two approaches are tested on a mining impact assessment case in southwest Florida using a large regional dataset (The Lower West Coast Surficial Aquifer System Model). Various metrics for performance are considered. They include: computation time, water balance (as compared to the variable sized grid), calibration, implementation effort, and application advantages and limitations. The results indicate that MODFLOW-LGR is a useful tool to improve local resolution of regional scale models. While performance metrics, such as computation time, are case-dependent (model size, refinement level, stresses involved), implementation effort, particularly when regional models of suitable scale are available, can be minimized. The creation of multiple child models within a larger scale parent model makes it possible to reuse the same calibrated regional dataset with minimal modification. In cases similar to the Lower West Coast model, where a model is larger than optimal for direct application as a parent grid, a combination of TMR and LGR approaches should be used to develop a suitable parent grid.

Numerical groundwater-flow model of the Minnelusa and Madison hydrogeologic units in the Rapid City area, South Dakota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Putnam, Larry D.; Long, Andrew J.

2009-01-01

The city of Rapid City and other water users in the Rapid City area obtain water supplies from the Minnelusa and Madison aquifers, which are contained in the Minnelusa and Madison hydrogeologic units. A numerical groundwater-flow model of the Minnelusa and Madison hydrogeologic units in the Rapid City area was developed to synthesize estimates of water-budget components and hydraulic properties, and to provide a tool to analyze the effect of additional stress on water-level altitudes within the aquifers and on discharge to springs. This report, prepared in cooperation with the city of Rapid City, documents a numerical groundwater-flow model of the Minnelusa and Madison hydrogeologic units for the 1,000-square-mile study area that includes Rapid City and the surrounding area. Water-table conditions generally exist in outcrop areas of the Minnelusa and Madison hydrogeologic units, which form generally concentric rings that surround the Precambrian core of the uplifted Black Hills. Confined conditions exist east of the water-table areas in the study area. The Minnelusa hydrogeologic unit is 375 to 800 feet (ft) thick in the study area with the more permeable upper part containing predominantly sandstone and the less permeable lower part containing more shale and limestone than the upper part. Shale units in the lower part generally impede flow between the Minnelusa hydrogeologic unit and the underlying Madison hydrogeologic unit; however, fracturing and weathering may result in hydraulic connections in some areas. The Madison hydrogeologic unit is composed of limestone and dolomite that is about 250 to 610 ft thick in the study area, and the upper part contains substantial secondary permeability from solution openings and fractures. Recharge to the Minnelusa and Madison hydrogeologic units is from streamflow loss where streams cross the outcrop and from infiltration of precipitation on the outcrops (areal recharge). MODFLOW-2000, a finite-difference groundwater-flow model, was used to simulate flow in the Minnelusa and Madison hydrogeologic units with five layers. Layer 1 represented the fractured sandstone layers in the upper 250 ft of the Minnelusa hydrogeologic unit, and layer 2 represented the lower part of the Minnelusa hydrogeologic unit. Layer 3 represented the upper 150 ft of the Madison hydrogeologic unit, and layer 4 represented the less permeable lower part. Layer 5 represented an approximation of the underlying Deadwood aquifer to simulate upward flow to the Madison hydrogeologic unit. The finite-difference grid, oriented 23 degrees counterclockwise, included 221 rows and 169 columns with a square cell size of 492.1 ft in the detailed study area that surrounded Rapid City. The northern and southern boundaries for layers 1-4 were represented as no-flow boundaries, and the boundary on the east was represented with head-dependent flow cells. Streamflow recharge was represented with specified-flow cells, and areal recharge to layers 1-4 was represented with a specified-flux boundary. Calibration of the model was accomplished by two simulations: (1) steady-state simulation of average conditions for water years 1988-97 and (2) transient simulations of water years 1988-97 divided into twenty 6-month stress periods. Flow-system components represented in the model include recharge, discharge, and hydraulic properties. The steady-state streamflow recharge rate was 42.2 cubic feet per second (ft3/s), and transient streamflow recharge rates ranged from 14.1 to 102.2 ft3/s. The steady-state areal recharge rate was 20.9 ft3/s, and transient areal recharge rates ranged from 1.1 to 98.4 ft3/s. The upward flow rate from the Deadwood aquifer to the Madison hydrogeologic unit was 6.3 ft3/s. Discharge included springflow, water use, flow to overlying units, and regional outflow. The estimated steady-state springflow of 32.8 ft3/s from seven springs was similar to the simulated springflow of 31.6 ft3/s, which included 20.5 ft3

Estimation of the recharge area contributing water to a pumped well in a glacial-drift, river-valley aquifer

USGS Publications Warehouse

Morrissey, Daniel J.

1989-01-01

The highly permeable, unconfined, glacial-drift aquifers that occupy most New England river valleys constitute the principal source of drinking water for many of the communities that obtain part or all of their public water supply from ground water. Recent events have shown that these aquifers are highly susceptible to contamination that results from a number of sources, such as seepage from wastewater lagoons, leaking petroleum-product storage tanks, and road salting. To protect the quality of water pumped from supply wells in these aquifers, it is necessary to ensure that potentially harmful contaminants do not enter the ground in the area that contributes water to the well. A high degree of protection can be achieved through the application of appropriate land-use controls within the contributing area. However, the contributing areas for most supply wells are not known. This report describes the factors that affect the size and shape of contributing areas to public supply wells and evaluates several methods that may be used to delineate contributing areas of wells in glacial-drift, river-valley aquifers. Analytical, two-dimensional numerical, and three-dimensional numerical models were used to delineate contributing areas. These methods of analysis were compared by applying them to a hypothetical aquifer having the dimensions and geometry of a typical glacial-drift, river-valley aquifer. In the model analyses, factors that control the size and shape of a contributing area were varied over ranges of values common to glacial-drift aquifers in New England. The controlling factors include the rate of well discharge, rate of recharge to the aquifer from precipitation and from adjacent till and bedrock uplands, distance of a pumping well from a stream or other potential source of induced recharge, degree of hydraulic connection of the aquifer with a stream, horizontal hydraulic conductivity of the aquifer, ratio of horizontal to vertical hydraulic conductivity, and degree of well penetration. Analytical methods proved easiest to apply but gave results that are considered to be less accurate than those obtainable by means of numerical-model analysis. Numerical models have the capability to more closely reflect the variable geohydrologic conditions typical of glacial-drift valley aquifers. For average conditions in the hypothetical aquifer, the analytical method predicts a contributing area limited to the well side of the river because a constant-head boundary simulated by image wells is used in the analytical model. For typical glacial-drift, river-valley aquifers, this simulation is unrealistic because drawdowns, caused by a pumping well, and the contributing area of the well can extend beneath and beyond a river or stream. A wide range of hydrologic conditions was simulated by using the two-dimensional numerical model. The resulting contributing area for a well pumped at 1.0 million gallons per day--a common pumping rate--ranged from about 0.9 to 1.8 square miles. Model analyses also show that the contributing area of pumped wells may be expected to extend to the opposite side of the river and to include significant areas of till uplands adjacent to the aquifer on both sides of the valley. Simulations done with the three-dimensional model allow a full three-dimensional delineation of the zone of contribution for a pumped well. For the relatively thin (100 feet or less) unconfined aquifers considered in this analysis, the three-dimensional model showed that the zone of contribution extended throughout the entire saturated thickness of aquifer; therefore, the two-dimensional simulations were considered adequate for delineating contributing areas in this particular hydrologic setting. For thicker aquifers, especially those having partially penetrating wells, three-dimensional models are preferable. Values for several of the factors that affect the size and shape of contributing recharge areas cannot be det

The Role of Item Models in Automatic Item Generation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gierl, Mark J.; Lai, Hollis

2012-01-01

Automatic item generation represents a relatively new but rapidly evolving research area where cognitive and psychometric theories are used to produce tests that include items generated using computer technology. Automatic item generation requires two steps. First, test development specialists create item models, which are comparable to templates…

Applying the Achievement Orientation Model to the Job Satisfaction of Teachers of the Gifted

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Siegle, Del; McCoach, D. Betsy; Shea, Kelly

2014-01-01

Factors associated with motivation and satisfaction aid in understanding the processes that enhance achievement and productivity. Siegle and McCoach (2005) proposed a motivational model for understanding student achievement and underachievement that included self-perceptions in three areas (meaningfulness [goal valuation], self-efficacy, and…

Model Learner Outcomes for Agriculture/Agribusiness Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Minnesota State Dept. of Education, St. Paul.

Chapter 1 of this document contains sets of statements adopted by the Minnesota State Board of Education or Minnesota State Legislature. They represent the hierarchy used by Department of Education staff to develop model learner outcomes for each subject area. Contents include learner values, education system values, philosophy of education,…

Model Learner Outcomes for Home Economics Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rogers, Cheryl, Ed.; And Others

Chapter 1 of this document contains sets of statements adopted by either the Minnesota State Board of Education or the Minnesota State Legislature. They represent the hierarchy used by Department of Education staff as they develop model learner outcomes for each subject area. Contents include learner values, education system values, philosophy for…

THE OHIO RIVER BASIN ENERGY FACILITY SITING MODEL. VOLUME II: SITES AND ON-LINE DATES

EPA Science Inventory

The report was prepared as part of the Ohio River Basin Energy Study (ORBES), a multidisciplinary policy research program. The siting model developed for ORBES is specifically designed for regional policy analysis. The region includes 423 counties in an area that consists of all ...

Research in Distance Education: A System Modeling Approach.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Saba, Farhad; Twitchell, David

This demonstration of the use of a computer simulation research method based on the System Dynamics modeling technique for studying distance education reviews research methods in distance education, including the broad categories of conceptual and case studies, and presents a rationale for the application of systems research in this area. The…

Sea level side loads in high-area-ratio rocket engines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nave, L. H.; Coffey, G. A.

1973-01-01

An empirical separation and side load model to obtain applied aerodynamic loads has been developed based on data obtained from full-scale J-2S (265K-pound-thrust engine with an area ratio of 40:1) engine and model testing. Experimental data include visual observations of the separation patterns that show the dynamic nature of the separation phenomenon. Comparisons between measured and applied side loads are made. Correlations relating the separation location to the applied side loads and the methods used to determine the separation location are given.

A structural analysis of an ocean going patrol boat subjected to planning loads

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Clark, James H.; Lafreniere, Robert; Stoodt, Robert; Wiedenheft, John

1987-01-01

A static structural analysis of an ocean going patrol vessel subjected to hydrodynamic planning loads is discussed. The analysis required the development of a detailed model that included hull plating, five structural bulkheads, longitudinal and transverse stiffners, and a coarse representation of the superstructure. The finite element model was developed from fabrication drawings using the Navy computer aided design system. Various stress and displacement contours are shown for the entire hull. Because several critical areas appeared to be overstressed, these areas were remeshed for detail and are presented for completeness.

Factors affecting the estimation of the relative amount of chromophore and chromophore area by the two-wavelength method of Patau and Ornstein.

PubMed

Van Oostveldt, P; Boeken, G

1976-05-28

Factors influencing the calculation of the relative amount of chromophore and the chromophore area by the two-wavelength method are examined. The study was carried out with the help of models and further tested on Feulgen stained preparations. Except for certain restrictions the difference between the chromophore area as calculated from the two transmissions measurements and the chromophore area obtained by planimetry can be used as a guide for determining the proper measuring conditions, including the choise of the two wavelengths.

Spatio-temporal modeling of chronic PM 10 exposure for the Nurses' Health Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yanosky, Jeff D.; Paciorek, Christopher J.; Schwartz, Joel; Laden, Francine; Puett, Robin; Suh, Helen H.

2008-06-01

Chronic epidemiological studies of airborne particulate matter (PM) have typically characterized the chronic PM exposures of their study populations using city- or county-wide ambient concentrations, which limit the studies to areas where nearby monitoring data are available and which ignore within-city spatial gradients in ambient PM concentrations. To provide more spatially refined and precise chronic exposure measures, we used a Geographic Information System (GIS)-based spatial smoothing model to predict monthly outdoor PM10 concentrations in the northeastern and midwestern United States. This model included monthly smooth spatial terms and smooth regression terms of GIS-derived and meteorological predictors. Using cross-validation and other pre-specified selection criteria, terms for distance to road by road class, urban land use, block group and county population density, point- and area-source PM10 emissions, elevation, wind speed, and precipitation were found to be important determinants of PM10 concentrations and were included in the final model. Final model performance was strong (cross-validation R2=0.62), with little bias (-0.4 μg m-3) and high precision (6.4 μg m-3). The final model (with monthly spatial terms) performed better than a model with seasonal spatial terms (cross-validation R2=0.54). The addition of GIS-derived and meteorological predictors improved predictive performance over spatial smoothing (cross-validation R2=0.51) or inverse distance weighted interpolation (cross-validation R2=0.29) methods alone and increased the spatial resolution of predictions. The model performed well in both rural and urban areas, across seasons, and across the entire time period. The strong model performance demonstrates its suitability as a means to estimate individual-specific chronic PM10 exposures for large populations.

A new percolation model for composite solid electrolytes and dispersed ionic conductors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Risyad Hasyim, Muhammad; Lanagan, Michael T.

2018-02-01

Composite solid electrolytes (CSEs) including conductor/insulator composites known as dispersed ionic conductors (DICs) have motivated the development of novel percolation models that describe their conductivity. Despite the long history, existing models lack in one or more key areas: (1) rigorous foundation for their physical theory, (2) explanation for non-universal conductor-insulator transition, (3) classification of DICs, and (4) extension to frequency-domain. This work describes a frequency-domain effective medium approximation (EMA) of a bond percolation model for CSEs. The EMA is derived entirely from Maxwell’s equations and contains basic microstructure parameters. The model was applied successfully to several composite systems from literature. Simulations and fitting of literature data address these key areas and illustrate the interplay between space charge layer properties and bulk microstructure.

Groundwater-level change and evaluation of simulated water levels for irrigated areas in Lahontan Valley, Churchill County, west-central Nevada, 1992 to 2012

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, David W.; Buto, Susan G.; Welborn, Toby L.

2016-09-14

The acquisition and transfer of water rights to wetland areas of Lahontan Valley, Nevada, has caused concern over the potential effects on shallow aquifer water levels. In 1992, water levels in Lahontan Valley were measured to construct a water-table map of the shallow aquifer prior to the effects of water-right transfers mandated by the Fallon Paiute-Shoshone Tribal Settlement Act of 1990 (Public Law 101-618, 104 Stat. 3289). From 1992 to 2012, approximately 11,810 water-righted acres, or 34,356 acre-feet of water, were acquired and transferred to wetland areas of Lahontan Valley. This report documents changes in water levels measured during the period of water-right transfers and presents an evaluation of five groundwater-flow model scenarios that simulated water-level changes in Lahontan Valley in response to water-right transfers and a reduction in irrigation season length by 50 percent.Water levels measured in 98 wells from 2012 to 2013 were used to construct a water-table map. Water levels in 73 of the 98 wells were compared with water levels measured in 1992 and used to construct a water-level change map. Water-level changes in the 73 wells ranged from -16.2 to 4.1 feet over the 20-year period. Rises in water levels in Lahontan Valley may correspond to annual changes in available irrigation water, increased canal flows after the exceptionally dry and shortened irrigation season of 1992, and the increased conveyance of water rights transferred to Stillwater National Wildlife Refuge. Water-level declines generally occurred near the boundary of irrigated areas and may be associated with groundwater pumping, water-right transfers, and inactive surface-water storage reservoirs. The largest water-level declines were in the area near Carson Lake.Groundwater-level response to water-right transfers was evaluated by comparing simulated and observed water-level changes for periods representing water-right transfers and a shortened irrigation season in areas near Fallon and Stillwater, Nevada. In the Stillwater modeled area, water rights associated with nearly 50 percent of the irrigated land were transferred from 1992 to 1998, represented by the model scenario reduction in groundwater recharge by 50 percent. The scenario resulted in a simulated average decline of 0.6 foot; average observed water-level change for the modeled area was estimated to be 0.0 foot, or no change. In the Fallon modeled area, transfers of water rights associated with 180 acres of land occurred from 1994 to 2008. The transfer is most similar to the scenario for removal of 320 acres of irrigated land. The model scenario resulted in simulated water-level declines of 0.1; water levels measured from 1994 to 2012 indicate no significant trends in water levels, or approximately zero change in water levels, for the Fallon modeled area.The model scenarios included the simulation of a irrigation season shortened by 50 percent, which was determined to have occurred in the 1992 irrigation season in both modeled areas. The shortening of the irrigation season in the Fallon modeled area resulted in simulated water-level declines of 1.1 feet; observed declines were estimated to be 1.3 feet. The Stillwater model simulations resulted in a simulated decline of 1.4 feet, and observed water levels declined an estimated 2.3 feet for the area. The estimated difference between simulated and observed water levels are 0.2 and 0.9 foot for the Fallon and Stillwater modeled areas, respectively. Observed water-level changes were generally within one standard deviation of changes from model simulations, based on the selected periods of comparison. Simulated and observed water-level changes agree well, generally within 1 foot; however, the model scenarios were only approximately similar to the observed conditions, and periods of comparison were generally shorter for the observed periods and included additional cumulative effects of water-right transfers. Climate variability was not considered in the model scenarios.

Accuracy assessment of TanDEM-X IDEM using airborne LiDAR on the area of Poland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woroszkiewicz, Małgorzata; Ewiak, Ireneusz; Lulkowska, Paulina

2017-06-01

The TerraSAR-X add-on for Digital Elevation Measurement (TanDEM-X) mission launched in 2010 is another programme - after the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) in 2000 - that uses space-borne radar interferometry to build a global digital surface model. This article presents the accuracy assessment of the TanDEM-X intermediate Digital Elevation Model (IDEM) provided by the German Aerospace Center (DLR) under the project "Accuracy assessment of a Digital Elevation Model based on TanDEM-X data" for the southwestern territory of Poland. The study area included: open terrain, urban terrain and forested terrain. Based on a set of 17,498 reference points acquired by airborne laser scanning, the mean errors of average heights and standard deviations were calculated for areas with a terrain slope below 2 degrees, between 2 and 6 degrees and above 6 degrees. The absolute accuracy of the IDEM data for the analysed area, expressed as a root mean square error (Total RMSE), was 0.77 m.

Managing water and riparian habitats on the Bill Williams River with scientific benefit for other desert river systems

USGS Publications Warehouse

John Hickey,; Woodrow Fields,; Andrew Hautzinger,; Steven Sesnie,; Shafroth, Patrick B.; Dick Gilbert,

2016-01-01

This report details modeling to: 1) codify flow-ecology relationships for riparian species of the Bill Williams River as operational guidance for water managers, 2) test the guidance under different climate scenarios, and 3) revise the operational guidance as needed to address the effects of climate change. Model applications detailed herein include the River Analysis System  (HEC-RAS) and the Ecosystem Functions Model  (HEC-EFM), which was used to generate more than three million estimates of local seedling recruitment areas. Areas were aggregated and compared to determine which scenarios generated the most seedling area per unit volume of water. Scenarios that maximized seedling area were grouped into a family of curves that serve as guidance for water managers. This work has direct connections to water management decision-making and builds upon and adds to the rich history of science-based management for the Bill Williams River, Arizona, USA. 

The cultural route of present and lost landscapes in the centre of Bucharest - digital model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bostenaru-Dan, Maria

2015-04-01

We are developing a digital model of the Magheru boulevard in central Bucharest. This N-S axis in the centre of the city is a unique encounter with interwar architecture. It is a protected area in the city, with buildings listed individually or as group of monuments, and also with protection at urban planning level. But at the same time the landscape does not facilitate the building of urban routes between monuments. A GIS model of the area exists, but does not yet take into account this heritage value of the buildings, being developed in a civil engineering environment. It is also one of the few partial 3D models of Bucharest. It allows datascapes of various buidling characteristics. At the same time a 3D model which equally covers all items in an area is ressources expensive. Hence, we propose, similarly to strategic planning to do a Kevin Lynch type selection. Landmarks will be identified as nodes of the routes, and the remaining area treated as zone. Ways connect the nodes and we paid special attention as we will see to their landscape. We developed a concept on how to further build from the idea of layers in GIS to include the issue of scale. As such, floor plans can build strategic points for the nodes of the route such as in Nolli or Sitte plans. Cooperation between GIS and GoogleEarth is envisaged, since GoogleEarth allows for detailing in SketchUp for the interior space. This way we developed an alternative digital model to the levels of detail of CityGML, the classical for 3D city models. The route itself is to be analysed with the method of Space Syntax. While this part of the research focused on the built heritage, on culture, we included also issues of landscape. First, the landscape of the boulevard has to be shaped as to build the route between these nodes of the route. Our concept includes the creation of pocket parks and of links between the pocket parks through vegetal and mineral elements to connect them. Existing urban spaces and empty plots are to be used. Second, we focus on the lost landscape. The lost natural and the lost cultural landscape. The lost natural landscape includes lost gardens of the area, about which our colleague Cerasella Craciun conducted archive research. The lost cultural landscape includes buildings which collapsed in the 1977 earthquake. We developed a digital model of guided tours for these landmarks. First, the lost items are identified on today's map. Second, a game is created in order to identify what replaces them on the historic map. We developed the code for these in Adobe Director and already experimented it for the city of Cologne in Germany, and tested for applicability for the landmarks of the 1755 Lisbon earthquake, where a similar concept is suitable. The nodes of the route are to be mapped as landscape through photography using the COMOB application, which allows inclusion of intangible heritage items such as the world of words.

Comparison of yellow poplar growth models on the basis of derived growth analysis variables

Treesearch

Keith F. Jensen; Daniel A. Yaussy

1986-01-01

Quadratic and cubic polynomials, and Gompertz and Richards asymptotic models were fitted to yellow poplar growth data. These data included height, leaf area, leaf weight and new shoot height for 23 weeks. Seven growth analysis variables were estimated from each function. The Gompertz and Richards models fitted the data best and provided the most accurate derived...

A Feedback Model of Attention Explains the Diverse Effects of Attention on Neural Firing Rates and Receptive Field Structure.

PubMed

Miconi, Thomas; VanRullen, Rufin

2016-02-01

Visual attention has many effects on neural responses, producing complex changes in firing rates, as well as modifying the structure and size of receptive fields, both in topological and feature space. Several existing models of attention suggest that these effects arise from selective modulation of neural inputs. However, anatomical and physiological observations suggest that attentional modulation targets higher levels of the visual system (such as V4 or MT) rather than input areas (such as V1). Here we propose a simple mechanism that explains how a top-down attentional modulation, falling on higher visual areas, can produce the observed effects of attention on neural responses. Our model requires only the existence of modulatory feedback connections between areas, and short-range lateral inhibition within each area. Feedback connections redistribute the top-down modulation to lower areas, which in turn alters the inputs of other higher-area cells, including those that did not receive the initial modulation. This produces firing rate modulations and receptive field shifts. Simultaneously, short-range lateral inhibition between neighboring cells produce competitive effects that are automatically scaled to receptive field size in any given area. Our model reproduces the observed attentional effects on response rates (response gain, input gain, biased competition automatically scaled to receptive field size) and receptive field structure (shifts and resizing of receptive fields both spatially and in complex feature space), without modifying model parameters. Our model also makes the novel prediction that attentional effects on response curves should shift from response gain to contrast gain as the spatial focus of attention drifts away from the studied cell.

Identification of dust storm source areas in West Asia using multiple environmental datasets.

PubMed

Cao, Hui; Amiraslani, Farshad; Liu, Jian; Zhou, Na

2015-01-01

Sand and Dust storms are common phenomena in arid and semi-arid areas. West Asia Region, especially Tigris-Euphrates alluvial plain, has been recognized as one of the most important dust source areas in the world. In this paper, a method is applied to extract SDS (Sand and Dust Storms) sources in West Asia region using thematic maps, climate and geography, HYSPLIT model and satellite images. Out of 50 dust storms happened during 2000-2013 and collected in form of MODIS images, 27 events were incorporated as demonstrations of the simulated trajectories by HYSPLIT model. Besides, a dataset of the newly released Landsat images was used as base-map for the interpretation of SDS source regions. As a result, six main clusters were recognized as dust source areas. Of which, 3 clusters situated in Tigris-Euphrates plain were identified as severe SDS sources (including 70% dust storms in this research). Another cluster in Sistan plain is also a potential source area. This approach also confirmed six main paths causing dust storms. These paths are driven by the climate system including Siberian and Polar anticyclones, monsoon from Indian Subcontinent and depression from north of Africa. The identification of SDS source areas and paths will improve our understandings on the mechanisms and impacts of dust storms on socio-economy and environment of the region. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Multiscale sagebrush rangeland habitat modeling in southwest Wyoming

USGS Publications Warehouse

Homer, Collin G.; Aldridge, Cameron L.; Meyer, Debra K.; Coan, Michael J.; Bowen, Zachary H.

2009-01-01

Sagebrush-steppe ecosystems in North America have experienced dramatic elimination and degradation since European settlement. As a result, sagebrush-steppe dependent species have experienced drastic range contractions and population declines. Coordinated ecosystem-wide research, integrated with monitoring and management activities, would improve the ability to maintain existing sagebrush habitats. However, current data only identify resource availability locally, with rigorous spatial tools and models that accurately model and map sagebrush habitats over large areas still unavailable. Here we report on an effort to produce a rigorous large-area sagebrush-habitat classification and inventory with statistically validated products and estimates of precision in the State of Wyoming. This research employs a combination of significant new tools, including (1) modeling sagebrush rangeland as a series of independent continuous field components that can be combined and customized by any user at multiple spatial scales; (2) collecting ground-measured plot data on 2.4-meter imagery in the same season the satellite imagery is acquired; (3) effective modeling of ground-measured data on 2.4-meter imagery to maximize subsequent extrapolation; (4) acquiring multiple seasons (spring, summer, and fall) of an additional two spatial scales of imagery (30 meter and 56 meter) for optimal large-area modeling; (5) using regression tree classification technology that optimizes data mining of multiple image dates, ratios, and bands with ancillary data to extrapolate ground training data to coarser resolution sensors; and (6) employing rigorous accuracy assessment of model predictions to enable users to understand the inherent uncertainties. First-phase results modeled eight rangeland components (four primary targets and four secondary targets) as continuous field predictions. The primary targets included percent bare ground, percent herbaceousness, percent shrub, and percent litter. The four secondary targets included percent sagebrush (Artemisia spp.), percent big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata), percent Wyoming sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata wyomingensis), and sagebrush height (centimeters). Results were validated by an independent accuracy assessment with root mean square error (RMSE) values ranging from 6.38 percent for bare ground to 2.99 percent for sagebrush at the QuickBird scale and RMSE values ranging from 12.07 percent for bare ground to 6.34 percent for sagebrush at the full Landsat scale. Subsequent project phases are now in progress, with plans to deliver products that improve accuracies of existing components, model new components, complete models over larger areas, track changes over time (from 1988 to 2007), and ultimately model wildlife population trends against these changes. We believe these results offer significant improvement in sagebrush rangeland quantification at multiple scales and offer users products that have been rigorously validated.

Developing a topographic model to predict the northern hardwood forest type within Carolina northern flying squirrel (Glaucomys sabrinus coloratus) recovery areas of the southern Appalachians

USGS Publications Warehouse

Evans, Andrew; Odom, Richard H.; Resler, Lynn M.; Ford, W. Mark; Prisley, Stephen

2014-01-01

The northern hardwood forest type is an important habitat component for the endangered Carolina northern flying squirrel (CNFS; Glaucomys sabrinus coloratus) for den sites and corridor habitats between boreo-montane conifer patches foraging areas. Our study related terrain data to presence of northern hardwood forest type in the recovery areas of CNFS in the southern Appalachian Mountains of western North Carolina, eastern Tennessee, and southwestern Virginia. We recorded overstory species composition and terrain variables at 338 points, to construct a robust, spatially predictive model. Terrain variables analyzed included elevation, aspect, slope gradient, site curvature, and topographic exposure. We used an information-theoretic approach to assess seven models based on associations noted in existing literature as well as an inclusive global model. Our results indicate that, on a regional scale, elevation, aspect, and topographic exposure index (TEI) are significant predictors of the presence of the northern hardwood forest type in the southern Appalachians. Our elevation + TEI model was the best approximating model (the lowest AICc score) for predicting northern hardwood forest type correctly classifying approximately 78% of our sample points. We then used these data to create region-wide predictive maps of the distribution of the northern hardwood forest type within CNFS recovery areas.

SeaQuaKE: Sea-optimized Quantum Key Exchange

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-11-01

ONRBAA13-001). In this technical report, we describe modeling results of an entangled photon - pair source based on spontaneous four-wave mixing for...Distribution Special Notice (13-SN- 0004 under ONRBAA13-001). In this technical report, we describe modeling results of an entangled photon - pair ...areas over the last quarter include (i) development of a wavelength-dependent, entangled photon - pair source model and (ii) end-to-end system modeling

Bayesian Spatiotemporal Pattern and Eco-climatological Drivers of Striped Skunk Rabies in the North Central Plains

PubMed Central

Raghavan, Ram K.; Hanlon, Cathleen A.; Goodin, Douglas G.; Anderson, Gary A.

2016-01-01

Striped skunks are one of the most important terrestrial reservoirs of rabies virus in North America, and yet the prevalence of rabies among this host is only passively monitored and the disease among this host remains largely unmanaged. Oral vaccination campaigns have not efficiently targeted striped skunks, while periodic spillovers of striped skunk variant viruses to other animals, including some domestic animals, are routinely recorded. In this study we evaluated the spatial and spatio-temporal patterns of infection status among striped skunk cases submitted for rabies testing in the North Central Plains of US in a Bayesian hierarchical framework, and also evaluated potential eco-climatological drivers of such patterns. Two Bayesian hierarchical models were fitted to point-referenced striped skunk rabies cases [n = 656 (negative), and n = 310 (positive)] received at a leading rabies diagnostic facility between the years 2007–2013. The first model included only spatial and temporal terms and a second covariate model included additional covariates representing eco-climatic conditions within a 4km2 home-range area for striped skunks. The better performing covariate model indicated the presence of significant spatial and temporal trends in the dataset and identified higher amounts of land covered by low-intensity developed areas [Odds ratio (OR) = 3.41; 95% Bayesian Credible Intervals (CrI) = 2.08, 3.85], higher level of patch fragmentation (OR = 1.70; 95% CrI = 1.25, 2.89), and diurnal temperature range (OR = 0.54; 95% CrI = 0.27, 0.91) to be important drivers of striped skunk rabies incidence in the study area. Model validation statistics indicated satisfactory performance for both models; however, the covariate model fared better. The findings of this study are important in the context of rabies management among striped skunks in North America, and the relevance of physical and climatological factors as risk factors for skunk to human rabies transmission and the space-time patterns of striped skunk rabies are discussed. PMID:27127994

Constraining 3-PG with a new δ13C submodel: a test using the δ13C of tree rings.

PubMed

Wei, Liang; Marshall, John D; Link, Timothy E; Kavanagh, Kathleen L; DU, Enhao; Pangle, Robert E; Gag, Peter J; Ubierna, Nerea

2014-01-01

A semi-mechanistic forest growth model, 3-PG (Physiological Principles Predicting Growth), was extended to calculate δ(13)C in tree rings. The δ(13)C estimates were based on the model's existing description of carbon assimilation and canopy conductance. The model was tested in two ~80-year-old natural stands of Abies grandis (grand fir) in northern Idaho. We used as many independent measurements as possible to parameterize the model. Measured parameters included quantum yield, specific leaf area, soil water content and litterfall rate. Predictions were compared with measurements of transpiration by sap flux, stem biomass, tree diameter growth, leaf area index and δ(13)C. Sensitivity analysis showed that the model's predictions of δ(13)C were sensitive to key parameters controlling carbon assimilation and canopy conductance, which would have allowed it to fail had the model been parameterized or programmed incorrectly. Instead, the simulated δ(13)C of tree rings was no different from measurements (P > 0.05). The δ(13)C submodel provides a convenient means of constraining parameter space and avoiding model artefacts. This δ(13)C test may be applied to any forest growth model that includes realistic simulations of carbon assimilation and transpiration. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Neural mechanisms of planning: A computational analysis using event-related fMRI

PubMed Central

Fincham, Jon M.; Carter, Cameron S.; van Veen, Vincent; Stenger, V. Andrew; Anderson, John R.

2002-01-01

To investigate the neural mechanisms of planning, we used a novel adaptation of the Tower of Hanoi (TOH) task and event-related functional MRI. Participants were trained in applying a specific strategy to an isomorph of the five-disk TOH task. After training, participants solved novel problems during event-related functional MRI. A computational cognitive model of the task was used to generate a reference time series representing the expected blood oxygen level-dependent response in brain areas involved in the manipulation and planning of goals. This time series was used as one term within a general linear modeling framework to identify brain areas in which the time course of activity varied as a function of goal-processing events. Two distinct time courses of activation were identified, one in which activation varied parametrically with goal-processing operations, and the other in which activation became pronounced only during goal-processing intensive trials. Regions showing the parametric relationship comprised a frontoparietal system and include right dorsolateral prefrontal cortex [Brodmann's area (BA 9)], bilateral parietal (BA 40/7), and bilateral premotor (BA 6) areas. Regions preferentially engaged only during goal-intensive processing include left inferior frontal gyrus (BA 44). The implications of these results for the current model, as well as for our understanding of the neural mechanisms of planning and functional specialization of the prefrontal cortex, are discussed. PMID:11880658

Ethical codes for attorneys: a brief introduction.

PubMed

Zarkowski, P

1997-01-01

Ethical standards for lawyers are contained in the Model Rules of Professional Conduct (which lays out both "shall/shall not" rules and "may" suggestions in nine broad areas) and the Model Code of Professional Responsibility (which covers essentially the same topic areas but offers more detailed commentary). Topics included in the Rules are the client-lawyer relationship, the attorney's role as an advocate and counselor, law firms and associations, public service, transactions with individuals other than clients and information about legal services including advertising, firm names, and letterhead. The American Dental Association's Principles of Ethics and Code of Professional Conduct is organized around the five ethical principles of patient autonomy, nonmaleficence, beneficence, justice, and veracity. There are substantial similarities in intent between the ethical standards of dentists and lawyers; there are also differences.

Regional groundwater-flow model of the Redwall-Muav, Coconino, and alluvial basin aquifer systems of northern and central Arizona

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pool, D.R.; Blasch, Kyle W.; Callegary, James B.; Leake, Stanley A.; Graser, Leslie F.

2011-01-01

A numerical flow model (MODFLOW) of the groundwater flow system in the primary aquifers in northern Arizona was developed to simulate interactions between the aquifers, perennial streams, and springs for predevelopment and transient conditions during 1910 through 2005. Simulated aquifers include the Redwall-Muav, Coconino, and basin-fill aquifers. Perennial stream reaches and springs that derive base flow from the aquifers were simulated, including the Colorado River, Little Colorado River, Salt River, Verde River, and perennial reaches of tributary streams. Simulated major springs include Blue Spring, Del Rio Springs, Havasu Springs, Verde River headwater springs, several springs that discharge adjacent to major Verde River tributaries, and many springs that discharge to the Colorado River. Estimates of aquifer hydraulic properties and groundwater budgets were developed from published reports and groundwater-flow models. Spatial extents of aquifers and confining units were developed from geologic data, geophysical models, a groundwater-flow model for the Prescott Active Management Area, drill logs, geologic logs, and geophysical logs. Spatial and temporal distributions of natural recharge were developed by using a water-balance model that estimates recharge from direct infiltration. Additional natural recharge from ephemeral channel infiltration was simulated in alluvial basins. Recharge at wastewater treatment facilities and incidental recharge at agricultural fields and golf courses were also simulated. Estimates of predevelopment rates of groundwater discharge to streams, springs, and evapotranspiration by phreatophytes were derived from previous reports and on the basis of streamflow records at gages. Annual estimates of groundwater withdrawals for agriculture, municipal, industrial, and domestic uses were developed from several sources, including reported withdrawals for nonexempt wells, estimated crop requirements for agricultural wells, and estimated per capita water use for exempt wells. Accuracy of the simulated groundwater-flow system was evaluated by using observational control from water levels in wells, estimates of base flow from streamflow records, and estimates of spring discharge. Major results from the simulations include the importance of variations in recharge rates throughout the study area and recharge along ephemeral and losing stream reaches in alluvial basins. Insights about the groundwater-flow systems in individual basins include the hydrologic influence of geologic structures in some areas and that stream-aquifer interactions along the lower part of the Little Colorado River are an effective control on water level distributions throughout the Little Colorado River Plateau basin. Better information on several aspects of the groundwater flow system are needed to reduce uncertainty of the simulated system. Many areas lack documentation of the response of the groundwater system to changes in withdrawals and recharge. Data needed to define groundwater flow between vertically adjacent water-bearing units is lacking in many areas. Distributions of recharge along losing stream reaches are poorly defined. Extents of aquifers and alluvial lithologies are poorly defined in parts of the Big Chino and Verde Valley sub-basins. Aquifer storage properties are poorly defined throughout most of the study area. Little data exist to define the hydrologic importance of geologic structures such as faults and fractures. Discharge of regional groundwater flow to the Verde River is difficult to identify in the Verde Valley sub-basin because of unknown contributions from deep percolation of excess surface water irrigation.

Defense Technology Area Plan.

DTIC Science & Technology

1996-05-01

Nonpolluting fouling-resistant or fouling-release hull coatings, which exploit low- surface-energy and surface-oriented perfluorinated alkyl compounds ... compounds Novel radioprotective drugs Fieldable biodosimetry capability Modeling for casualties in NBC environments Combined injury treatment protocols...Viral Agents, including encephalomyelitis viruses, variola (smallpox), and filoviridae (e.g., Ebola virus). • Neuroactive Compounds , including

CERT Resilience Management Model - Mail-Specific Process Areas: International Mail Transportation (Version 1.0)

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-08-01

IMPC. These threats may include natural and man-made disasters, damage, theft, fraud, and terrorism. Natural disasters such as hurricanes, earthquakes ...controls for mail sanctity include surveillance cameras, metal detectors , and X-ray screening to detect dangerous goods. (See IMT:SG2.SP1 and

Landscape scale prediction of earthquake-induced landsliding based on seismological and geomorphological parameters.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marc, O.; Hovius, N.; Meunier, P.; Rault, C.

2017-12-01

In tectonically active areas, earthquakes are an important trigger of landslides with significant impact on hillslopes and river evolutions. However, detailed prediction of landslides locations and properties for a given earthquakes remain difficult.In contrast we propose, landscape scale, analytical prediction of bulk coseismic landsliding, that is total landslide area and volume (Marc et al., 2016a) as well as the regional area within which most landslide must distribute (Marc et al., 2017). The prediction is based on a limited number of seismological (seismic moment, source depth) and geomorphological (landscape steepness, threshold acceleration) parameters, and therefore could be implemented in landscape evolution model aiming at engaging with erosion dynamics at the scale of the seismic cycle. To assess the model we have compiled and normalized estimates of total landslide volume, total landslide area and regional area affected by landslides for 40, 17 and 83 earthquakes, respectively. We have found that low landscape steepness systematically leads to overprediction of the total area and volume of landslides. When this effect is accounted for, the model is able to predict within a factor of 2 the landslide areas and associated volumes for about 70% of the cases in our databases. The prediction of regional area affected do not require a calibration for the landscape steepness and gives a prediction within a factor of 2 for 60% of the database. For 7 out of 10 comprehensive inventories we show that our prediction compares well with the smallest region around the fault containing 95% of the total landslide area. This is a significant improvement on a previously published empirical expression based only on earthquake moment.Some of the outliers seems related to exceptional rock mass strength in the epicentral area or shaking duration and other seismic source complexities ignored by the model. Applications include prediction on the mass balance of earthquakes and this model predicts that only earthquakes generated on a narrow range of fault sizes may cause more erosion than uplift (Marc et al., 2016b), while very large earthquakes are expected to always build topography. The model could also be used to physically calibrate hillslope erosion or perturbations to river network within landscape evolution model.

Spatial multi-criteria decision analysis for modelling suitable habitats of Ornithodoros soft ticks in the Western Palearctic region.

PubMed

Vial, L; Ducheyne, E; Filatov, S; Gerilovych, A; McVey, D S; Sindryakova, I; Morgunov, S; Pérez de León, A A; Kolbasov, D; De Clercq, E M

2018-01-15

Ticks are economically and medically important ectoparasites due to the injuries inflicted through their bite, and their ability to transmit pathogens to humans, livestock, and wildlife. Whereas hard ticks have been intensively studied, little is known about soft ticks, even though they can also transmit pathogens, including African Swine Fever Virus (ASFV) affecting domestic and wild suids or Borrelia bacteria causing tick-borne relapsing fever (TBRF) in humans. We thus developed a regional model to identify suitable spatial areas for a community of nine Ornithodoros tick species (O. erraticus, O. sonrai, O. alactagalis, O. nereensis, O. tholozani, O. papillipes, O. tartakovskyi, O. asperus, O. verrucosus), which may be of medical and veterinary importance in the Western Palearctic region. Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis was used due to the relative scarcity of high-quality occurrence data. After an in-depth literature review on the ecological requirements of the selected tick community, five climate-related factors appeared critical for feeding activity and tick development: (i) a spring temperature exceeding 10°C to induce the end of winter soft tick quiescent period, (ii) a three-months summer temperature above 20°C to allow tick physiological activities, (iii) annual precipitation ranging from 60mm to 750mm and, in very arid areas, (iv) dry seasons interrupted by small rain showers to maintain minimum moisture inside their habitat along the year or (v) residual water provided by perennial rivers near habitats. We deliberately chose not to include biological factors such as host availability or vegetation patterns. A sensitivity analysis was done by performing multiple runs of the model altering the environmental variables, their suitability function, and their attributed weights. To validate the models, we used 355 occurrence data points, complemented by random points within sampled ecoregions. All models indicated suitable areas in the Mediterranean Basin and semi-desert areas in South-West and Central Asia. Most variability between models was observed along northern and southern edges of highly suitable areas. The predictions featured a relatively good accuracy with an average Area Under Curve (AUC) of 0.779. These first models provide a useful tool for estimating the global distribution of Ornithodoros ticks and targeting their surveillance in the Western Palearctic region. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Assessing Hydrologic Impacts of Land Configuration Changes Using an Integrated Hydrologic Model at the Rocky Flats Environmental Technology Site, Colorado

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prucha, R. H.; Dayton, C. S.; Hawley, C. M.

2002-12-01

The Rocky Flats Environmental Technology Site (RFETS) in Golden, Colorado, a former Department of Energy nuclear weapons manufacturing facility, is currently undergoing closure. The natural semi-arid interaction between surface and subsurface flow at RFETS is complex and complicated by the industrial modifications to the flow system. Using a substantial site data set, a distributed parameter, fully-integrated hydrologic model was developed to assess the hydrologic impact of different hypothetical site closure configurations on the current flow system and to better understand the integrated hydrologic behavior of the system. An integrated model with this level of detail has not been previously developed in a semi-arid area, and a unique, but comprehensive, approach was required to calibrate and validate the model. Several hypothetical scenarios were developed to simulate hydrologic effects of modifying different aspects of the site. For example, some of the simulated modifications included regrading the current land surface, changing the existing surface channel network, removing subsurface trenches and gravity drain flow systems, installing a slurry wall and geotechnical cover, changing the current vegetative cover, and converting existing buildings and pavement to permeable soil areas. The integrated flow model was developed using a rigorous physically-based code so that realistic design parameters can simulate these changes. This code also permitted evaluation of changes to complex integrated hydrologic system responses that included channelized and overland flow, pond levels, unsaturated zone storage, groundwater heads and flow directions, and integrated water balances for key areas. Results generally show that channel flow offsite decreases substantially for different scenarios, while groundwater heads generally increase within the reconfigured industrial area most of which is then discharged as evapotranspiration. These changes have significant implications to site closure and operation.

Detecting Montane Meadows in the Tahoe National Forest Using LiDAR and ASTER Imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lorenz, A.; Blesius, L.; Davis, J. D.

2016-12-01

In the Sierra Nevada mountains, meadows provide numerous hydraulic and ecosystem functions such as flood attenuation, groundwater storage, and wildlife habitat. However, many meadows have been degraded from historical land use such as water diversion, grazing, and logging. Land managers have altered management strategies for restoration purposes, but there is a lack of comprehensive data on meadow locations. Previous attempts to inventory Sierra Nevada meadows have included several remote sensing techniques including heads up digitizing and pixel based image analysis, but this has been challenging due to geographic variability, seasonal changes, and meadow health. I present a remote sensing method using multiple return LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) and ASTER imagery to detect montane meadows in a subset of the Tahoe National Forest. The project used LiDAR data to create a digital terrain model and digital surface model. From these models, I derived canopy height, surface slope, and watercourse for the entire study area. Literature queries returned known values for canopy height and surface slope characteristic of montane meadows. These values were used to select for possible meadows within the study area. To filter out noise, only contiguous areas greater than one acre that satisfied the queries were used. Finally, 15-meter ASTER imagery was used to de-select for areas such as dirt patches or gravel bars that might have satisfied the previous queries and meadow criteria. When using high resolution aerial imagery to assess model accuracy, preliminary results show user accuracy of greater than 80%. Further validation is still needed to improve the accuracy of modeled meadow delineation. This method allows for meadows to be inventoried without discriminating based on geographic variability, seasonal changes, or meadow health.

Combined Use of Systematic Conservation Planning, Species Distribution Modelling, and Connectivity Analysis Reveals Severe Conservation Gaps in a Megadiverse Country (Peru)

PubMed Central

Fajardo, Javier; Lessmann, Janeth; Bonaccorso, Elisa; Devenish, Christian; Muñoz, Jesús

2014-01-01

Conservation planning is crucial for megadiverse countries where biodiversity is coupled with incomplete reserve systems and limited resources to invest in conservation. Using Peru as an example of a megadiverse country, we asked whether the national system of protected areas satisfies biodiversity conservation needs. Further, to complement the existing reserve system, we identified and prioritized potential conservation areas using a combination of species distribution modeling, conservation planning and connectivity analysis. Based on a set of 2,869 species, including mammals, birds, amphibians, reptiles, butterflies, and plants, we used species distribution models to represent species' geographic ranges to reduce the effect of biased sampling and partial knowledge about species' distributions. A site-selection algorithm then searched for efficient and complementary proposals, based on the above distributions, for a more representative system of protection. Finally, we incorporated connectivity among areas in an innovative post-hoc analysis to prioritize those areas maximizing connectivity within the system. Our results highlight severe conservation gaps in the Coastal and Andean regions, and we propose several areas, which are not currently covered by the existing network of protected areas. Our approach helps to find areas that contribute to creating a more representative, connected and efficient network. PMID:25479411

A prototype of the procedure of strong ground motion prediction for intraslab earthquake based on characterized source model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iwata, T.; Asano, K.; Sekiguchi, H.

2011-12-01

We propose a prototype of the procedure to construct source models for strong motion prediction during intraslab earthquakes based on the characterized source model (Irikura and Miyake, 2011). The key is the characterized source model which is based on the empirical scaling relationships for intraslab earthquakes and involve the correspondence between the SMGA (strong motion generation area, Miyake et al., 2003) and the asperity (large slip area). Iwata and Asano (2011) obtained the empirical relationships of the rupture area (S) and the total asperity area (Sa) to the seismic moment (Mo) as follows, with assuming power of 2/3 dependency of S and Sa on M0, S (km**2) = 6.57×10**(-11)×Mo**(2/3) (Nm) (1) Sa (km**2) = 1.04 ×10**(-11)×Mo**(2/3) (Nm) (2). Iwata and Asano (2011) also pointed out that the position and the size of SMGA approximately corresponds to the asperity area for several intraslab events. Based on the empirical relationships, we gave a procedure for constructing source models of intraslab earthquakes for strong motion prediction. [1] Give the seismic moment, Mo. [2] Obtain the total rupture area and the total asperity area according to the empirical scaling relationships between S, Sa, and Mo given by Iwata and Asano (2011). [3] Square rupture area and asperities are assumed. [4] The source mechanism is assumed to be the same as that of small events in the source region. [5] Plural scenarios including variety of the number of asperities and rupture starting points are prepared. We apply this procedure by simulating strong ground motions for several observed events for confirming the methodology.

Geographical information system (GIS) modeling territory receptivity to strengthen entomological surveillance: Anopheles (Nyssorhynchus) case study in Rio de Janeiro State, Brazil.

PubMed

Albuquerque, Hermano Gomes; Peiter, Paulo Cesar; Toledo, Luciano M; Alencar, Jeronimo A F; Sabroza, Paulo C; Dias, Cristina G; Santos, Jefferson P C; Suárez-Mutis, Martha C

2018-04-19

Extra-Amazonian malaria mortality is 60 times higher than the Amazon malaria mortality. Imported cases correspond to approximately 90% of extra-Amazonian cases. Imported malaria could be a major problem if it occurs in areas with receptivity, because it can favor the occurrence of outbreaks or reintroductions of malaria in those areas. This study aimed to model territorial receptivity for malaria to serve as an entomological surveillance tool in the State of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Geomorphology, rainfall, temperature, and vegetation layers were used in the AHP process for the receptivity stratification of Rio de Janeiro State territory. The model predicted five receptivity classes: very low, low, medium, high and very high. The 'very high' class is the most important in the receptivity model, corresponding to areas with optimal environmental and climatological conditions to provide suitable larval habitats for Anopheles (Nyssorhynchus) vectors. This receptivity class covered 497.14 km 2 or 1.18% of the state's area. The 'high' class covered the largest area, 17,557.98 km 2 , or 41.62% of the area of Rio de Janeiro State. We used freely available databases for modeling the distribution of receptive areas for malaria transmission in the State of Rio de Janeiro. This was a new and low-cost approach to support entomological surveillance efforts. Health workers in 'very high' and 'high' receptivity areas should be prepared to diagnose all febrile individuals and determine the cause of the fever, including malaria. Each malaria case must be treated and epidemiological studies must be conducted to prevent the reintroduction of the disease.

Nested 1D-2D approach for urban surface flood modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murla, Damian; Willems, Patrick

2015-04-01

Floods in urban areas as a consequence of sewer capacity exceedance receive increased attention because of trends in urbanization (increased population density and impermeability of the surface) and climate change. Despite the strong recent developments in numerical modeling of water systems, urban surface flood modeling is still a major challenge. Whereas very advanced and accurate flood modeling systems are in place and operation by many river authorities in support of flood management along rivers, this is not yet the case in urban water management. Reasons include the small scale of the urban inundation processes, the need to have very high resolution topographical information available, and the huge computational demands. Urban drainage related inundation modeling requires a 1D full hydrodynamic model of the sewer network to be coupled with a 2D surface flood model. To reduce the computational times, 0D (flood cones), 1D/quasi-2D surface flood modeling approaches have been developed and applied in some case studies. In this research, a nested 1D/2D hydraulic model has been developed for an urban catchment at the city of Gent (Belgium), linking the underground sewer (minor system) with the overland surface (major system). For the overland surface flood modelling, comparison was made of 0D, 1D/quasi-2D and full 2D approaches. The approaches are advanced by considering nested 1D-2D approaches, including infiltration in the green city areas, and allowing the effects of surface storm water storage to be simulated. An optimal nested combination of three different mesh resolutions was identified; based on a compromise between precision and simulation time for further real-time flood forecasting, warning and control applications. Main streets as mesh zones together with buildings as void regions constitute one of these mesh resolution (3.75m2 - 15m2); they have been included since they channel most of the flood water from the manholes and they improve the accuracy of interactions within the 1D sewer network. Other areas that recorded flooding outside the main streets have been also included with the second mesh resolution for an accurate determination of flood maps (12.5m2 - 50m2). Permeable areas have been identified and used as infiltration zones using the Horton infiltration model. A mesh sensitivity analysis has been performed for the low flood risk areas for a proper model optimization. As outcome of that analysis, the third mesh resolution has been chosen (75m2 - 300m2). Performance tests have been applied for several synthetic design storms as well as historical storm events displaying satisfactory results upon comparing the flood mapping outcomes produced by the different approaches. Accounting for the infiltration in the green city spaces reduces the flood extents in the range 39% - 68%, while the average reduction in flood volume equals 86%. Acknowledgement: Funding for this research was provided by the Interreg IVB NWE programme (project RainGain) and the Belgian Science Policy Office (project PLURISK). The high resolution topographical information data were obtained from the geographical information service AGIV; the original full hydrodynamic sewer network model from the service company Farys, and the InfoWorks licence from Innovyze.

Estimating an area-level socioeconomic status index and its association with colonoscopy screening adherence.

PubMed

Wheeler, David C; Czarnota, Jenna; Jones, Resa M

2017-01-01

Socioeconomic status (SES) is often considered a risk factor for health outcomes. SES is typically measured using individual variables of educational attainment, income, housing, and employment variables or a composite of these variables. Approaches to building the composite variable include using equal weights for each variable or estimating the weights with principal components analysis or factor analysis. However, these methods do not consider the relationship between the outcome and the SES variables when constructing the index. In this project, we used weighted quantile sum (WQS) regression to estimate an area-level SES index and its effect in a model of colonoscopy screening adherence in the Minnesota-Wisconsin Metropolitan Statistical Area. We considered several specifications of the SES index including using different spatial scales (e.g., census block group-level, tract-level) for the SES variables. We found a significant positive association (odds ratio = 1.17, 95% CI: 1.15-1.19) between the SES index and colonoscopy adherence in the best fitting model. The model with the best goodness-of-fit included a multi-scale SES index with 10 variables at the block group-level and one at the tract-level, with home ownership, race, and income among the most important variables. Contrary to previous index construction, our results were not consistent with an assumption of equal importance of variables in the SES index when explaining colonoscopy screening adherence. Our approach is applicable in any study where an SES index is considered as a variable in a regression model and the weights for the SES variables are not known in advance.

Understanding Biogenic and Anthropogenic Trace Gas Variations Measured Near Cool, CA in June 2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klein, B. Z.; Flowers, B. A.; Gorkowski, K.; Dubey, M. K.; Knighton, W. B.; Floerchinger, C.; Herndon, S. C.; Fast, J. D.; Zaveri, R. A.

2011-12-01

Trace gas signatures produced by forested and urban areas differ greatly. Forested areas are dominated by gases produced during photosynthesis and respiration: CO2 and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) including terpenes and isoprene. Urban areas are heavily influenced by vehicle exhaust emissions and have elevated levels of CO, NOx and aromatic hydrocarbons such as benzene. Ozone is produced as a byproduct of both of these sources; it is produced when NOx from urban areas reacts with either anthropogenic or biogenic hydrocarbons. The Carbonaceous Aerosol and Radiative Effects Study (CARES) campaign was conducted during June 2010, in part to observe the evolution of urban air masses as they mix into rural locations and to better understand anthropogenic-biogenic photochemical interactions. The campaign included two ground-based sampling sites, one in Sacramento, CA (T0) and one downwind, approximately 70km NE, rurally located near Cool, CA (T1). In situ measurements of CO2, CO, O3, NO and multiple different VOCs were performed at the T1 site during the study, and are analyzed here to gain insights into the chemistry and transport of these trace gases. Comparisons between these trace gases coupled with transport modeling is used to delineate biogenic and anthropogenic sources. Additionally, comparisons between trace gases produced predominately by biogenic sources provide valuable information on how meteorology affects their production. Two atmospheric models (HYSPLIT back-trajectories and WRF forecasts) are used to predict transport episodes, where polluted air masses from the Sacramento or more distant San Francisco areas are transported to Cool. The two models display significant overlap for eleven different transport episodes during the study period. Both models also agree on two transport-free multiple-day periods. By examining the periods during which the models are in agreement, we are able to characterize with high certainty the trace gas signatures of local biogenic sources and also the significance of short-range transported anthropogenic trace gases.

Urban impact on air quality in RegCM/CAMx couple for MEGAPOLI project - high resolution sensitivity study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Halenka, T.; Huszar, P.; Belda, M.

2010-09-01

Recent studies show considerable effect of atmospheric chemistry and aerosols on climate on regional and local scale. For the purpose of qualifying and quantifying the magnitude of climate forcing due to atmospheric chemistry/aerosols on regional scale, the development of coupling of regional climate model and chemistry/aerosol model was started on the Department of Meteorology and Environmental Protection, Charles University, Prague, for the EC FP6 Project QUANTIFY and EC FP6 Project CECILIA. For this coupling, existing regional climate model and chemistry transport model have been used at very high resolution of 10km grid. Climate is calculated using RegCM while chemistry is solved by CAMx. The experiments with the couple have been prepared for EC FP7 project MEGAPOLI assessing the impact of the megacities and industrialized areas on climate. Meteorological fields generated by RCM drive CAMx transport, chemistry and a dry/wet deposition. A preprocessor utility was developed for transforming RegCM provided fields to CAMx input fields and format. New domain have been settled for MEGAPOLI purpose in 10km resolution including all the European "megacities" regions, i.e. London metropolitan area, Paris region, industrialized Ruhr area, Po valley etc. There is critical issue of the emission inventories available for 10km resolution including the urban hot-spots, TNO emissions are adopted for this sensitivity study in 10km resolution for comparison of the results with the simulation based on merged TNO emissions, i.e. basically original EMEP emissions at 50 km grid. The sensitivity test to switch on/off Paris area emissions is analysed as well. Preliminary results for year 2005 are presented and discussed to reveal whether the concept of effective emission indices could help to parameterize the urban plume effects in lower resolution models. Interactive coupling is compared to study the potential of possible impact of urban air-pollution to the urban area climate.

Calibration of a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model for parts of the Allegheny, Monongahela, and Ohio Rivers, Allegheny County, Pennsylvania

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fulton, John W.; Wagner, Chad R.

2014-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Allegheny County Sanitary Authority, developed a validated two-dimensional Resource Management Associates2 (RMA2) hydrodynamic model of parts of the Allegheny, Monongahela, and Ohio Rivers (Three Rivers) to help assess the effects of combined sewer overflows (CSOs) and sanitary sewer overflows (SSOs) on the rivers. The hydrodynamic model was used to drive a water-quality model of the study area that was capable of simulating the transport and fate of fecal-indicator bacteria and chemical constituents under open-water conditions. The study area includes 14 tributary streams and parts of the Three Rivers where they enter and exit Allegheny County, an area of approximately 730 square miles (mi2). The city of Pittsburgh is near the center of the county, where the Allegheny and Monongahela Rivers join to form the headwaters of the Ohio River. The Three Rivers are regulated by a series of fixed-crest dams, gated dams, and radial (tainter) gates and serve as the receiving waters for tributary streams, CSOs, and SSOs. The RMA2 model was separated into four individual segments on the basis of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers navigational pools in the study area (Dashields; Emsworth; Allegheny River, Pool 2; and Braddock), which were calibrated individually using measured water-surface slope, velocity, and discharge during high- and low-flow conditions. The model calibration process included the comparison of water-surface elevations at five locations and velocity profiles at more than 80 cross sections in the study area. On the basis of the calibration and validation results that included water-surface elevations and velocities, the model is a representative simulation of the Three Rivers flow patterns for discharges ranging from 4,050 to 47,400 cubic feet per second (ft3/s) on the Allegheny River, 2,550 to 40,000 ft3/s on the Monongahela River, and 10,900 to 99,000 ft3/s on the Ohio River. The Monongahela River was characterized by unsteady conditions during low and high flows, which affected the calibration range. The simulated low-flow water-surface elevations typically were within 0.2 feet (ft) of measured values, whereas the simulated high-flow water-surface elevations were typically within 0.3 ft of the measured values. The mean error between simulated and measured velocities was less than 0.07 ft/s for low-flow conditions and less than 0.17 ft/s for high-flow conditions.

Development of a Dynamic, End-to-End Free Piston Stirling Convertor Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Regan, Timothy F.; Gerber, Scott S.; Roth, Mary Ellen

2004-01-01

A dynamic model for a free-piston Stirling convertor is being developed at the NASA Glenn Research Center. The model is an end-to-end system model that includes the cycle thermodynamics, the dynamics, and electrical aspects of the system. The subsystems of interest are the heat source, the springs, the moving masses, the linear alternator, the controller, and the end-user load. The envisioned use of the model will be in evaluating how changes in a subsystem could affect the operation of the convertor. The model under development will speed the evaluation of improvements to a subsystem and aid in determining areas in which most significant improvements may be found. One of the first uses of the end-toend model will be in the development of controller architectures. Another related area is in evaluating changes to details in the linear alternator.

Dynamic models of an earthquake and tsunami offshore Ventura, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kenny J. Ryan,; Geist, Eric L.; Barall, Michael; David D. Oglesby,

2015-01-01

The Ventura basin in Southern California includes coastal dip-slip faults that can likely produce earthquakes of magnitude 7 or greater and significant local tsunamis. We construct a 3-D dynamic rupture model of an earthquake on the Pitas Point and Lower Red Mountain faults to model low-frequency ground motion and the resulting tsunami, with a goal of elucidating the seismic and tsunami hazard in this area. Our model results in an average stress drop of 6 MPa, an average fault slip of 7.4 m, and a moment magnitude of 7.7, consistent with regional paleoseismic data. Our corresponding tsunami model uses final seafloor displacement from the rupture model as initial conditions to compute local propagation and inundation, resulting in large peak tsunami amplitudes northward and eastward due to site and path effects. Modeled inundation in the Ventura area is significantly greater than that indicated by state of California's current reference inundation line.

Development of a Dynamic, End-to-End Free Piston Stirling Convertor Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Regan, Timothy F.; Gerber, Scott S.; Roth, Mary Ellen

2003-01-01

A dynamic model for a free-piston Stirling convertor is being developed at the NASA Glenn Research Center. The model is an end-to-end system model that includes the cycle thermodynamics, the dynamics, and electrical aspects of the system. The subsystems of interest are the heat source, the springs, the moving masses, the linear alternator, the controller and the end-user load. The envisioned use of the model will be in evaluating how changes in a subsystem could affect the operation of the convertor. The model under development will speed the evaluation of improvements to a subsystem and aid in determining areas in which most significant improvements may be found. One of the first uses of the end-to-end model will be in the development of controller architectures. Another related area is in evaluating changes to details in the linear alternator.

Investigations of groundwater system and simulation of regional groundwater flow for North Penn Area 7 Superfund site, Montgomery County, Pennsylvania

USGS Publications Warehouse

Senior, Lisa A.; Goode, Daniel J.

2013-01-01

Groundwater in the vicinity of several industrial facilities in Upper Gwynedd Township and vicinity, Montgomery County, in southeast Pennsylvania has been shown to be contaminated with volatile organic compounds (VOCs), the most common of which is the solvent trichloroethylene (TCE). The 2-square-mile area was placed on the National Priorities List as the North Penn Area 7 Superfund site by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) in 1989. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) conducted geophysical logging, aquifer testing, and water-level monitoring, and measured streamflows in and near North Penn Area 7 from fall 2000 through fall 2006 in a technical assistance study for the USEPA to develop an understanding of the hydrogeologic framework in the area as part of the USEPA Remedial Investigation. In addition, the USGS developed a groundwater-flow computer model based on the hydrogeologic framework to simulate regional groundwater flow and to estimate directions of groundwater flow and pathways of groundwater contaminants. The study area is underlain by Triassic- and Jurassic-age sandstones and shales of the Lockatong Formation and Brunswick Group in the Mesozoic Newark Basin. Regionally, these rocks strike northeast and dip to the northwest. The sequence of rocks form a fractured-sedimentary-rock aquifer that acts as a set of confined to partially confined layers of differing permeabilities. Depth to competent bedrock typically is less than 20 ft below land surface. The aquifer layers are recharged locally by precipitation and discharge locally to streams. The general configuration of the potentiometric surface in the aquifer is similar to topography, except in areas affected by pumping. The headwaters of Wissahickon Creek are nearby, and the stream flows southwest, parallel to strike, to bisect North Penn Area 7. Groundwater is pumped in the vicinity of North Penn Area 7 for industrial use, public supply, and residential supply. Results of field investigations by USGS at the site and results from other studies support, and are consistent with, a conceptual model of a layered leaky aquifer where the dip of the beds has a strong control on hydraulic connections in the groundwater system. Connections within and (or) parallel to bedding tend to be greater than across bedding. Transmissivities of aquifer intervals isolated by packers ranged over three orders of magnitude [from about 2.8 to 2,290 square feet per day (ft2/d) or 0.26 to 213 square meters per day (m2/d)], did not appear to differ much by mapped geologic unit, but showed some relation to depth being relatively smaller in the shallowest and deepest intervals (0 to 50 ft and more than 250 ft below land surface, respectively) compared to the intermediate depth intervals (50 to 250 ft below land surface) tested. Transmissivities estimated from multiple-observation well aquifer tests ranged from about 700 to 2,300 ft2/d (65 to 214 m2/d). Results of chemical analyses of water from isolated intervals or monitoring wells open to short sections of the aquifer show vertical differences in concentrations; chloride and silica concentrations generally were greater in shallow intervals than in deeper intervals. Chloride concentrations greater than 100 milligrams per liter (mg/L), combined with distinctive chloride/bromide ratios, indicate a different source of chloride in the western part of North Penn Area 7 than elsewhere in the site. Groundwater flow at a regional scale under steady-state conditions was simulated by use of a numerical model (MODFLOW-2000) for North Penn Area 7 with different layers representing saprolite/highly weathered rock near the surface and unweathered competent bedrock. The sedimentary formations that underlie the study area were modeled using dipping model layers for intermediate and deep zones of unweathered, fractured rock. Horizontal cell model size was 100 meters (m) by 100 meters (328 ft by 328 ft), and model layer thickness ranged from 6 m (19.7 ft) representing shallow weathered rock and saprolite up to 200 m (656 ft) representing deeper dipping bedrock. The model did not include detailed structure to account for local-scale differences in hydraulic properties, with the result that local-scale groundwater flow may not be well simulated. Additional detailed multi-well aquifer tests would be needed to establish the extent of interconnection between intervals at the local scale to address remediation of contamination at each source area. This regional groundwater-flow model was calibrated against measured groundwater levels (1996, 2000, and 2005) and base flow estimated from selected streamflow measurements by use of nonlinear-regression parameter-estimation algorithms to determine hydraulic conductivity and anisotropy of hydraulic conductivity, streambed hydraulic conductivity, and recharge during calibration periods. Results of the simulation using the calibrated regional model indicate that the aquifer appears to be anisotropic where hydraulic conductivity is greatest parallel to the orientation of bedding of the formations underlying the area and least in the cross-bed direction. The maximum hydraulic conductivity is aligned with the average regional strike of the formations, which is “subhorizontal” in the model because the altitudes of the beds and model cells vary in the strike, as well as dip, direction. Estimated subhorizontal hydraulic conductivities (in strike direction parallel to dipping beds) range from 0.001 to 1.67 meters per day (0.0032 to 5.5 feet per day). The ratio of minimum (dip direction) to maximum (strike direction) subhorizontal hydraulic conductivity ranges from 1/3.1 to 1/8.6, and the ratio of vertical to horizontal hydraulic conductivity ranges from 1/1 to 1/478. However, limited available field data precluded rigorous calibration of vertical anisotropy in the model. Estimated recharge rates corresponding to calibration periods in 1996, 2000, and 2005 are 150, 109, and 124 millimeters per year (5.9, 4.3, and 4.9 inches per year), respectively. The calibrated groundwater-flow model was used to simulate groundwater flow under steady-state conditions during periods of relatively high withdrawals (pumpage) (1990) and relatively low withdrawals (2000 and 2005). Groundwater-flow paths originating from recharge areas near known areas of soil contamination (sources) were simulated. Pumped industrial and production wells captured more groundwater from several of these sources during 1990 than after 1990 when pumping declined or ceased and greater amounts of contaminated groundwater moved away from North Penn Area 7 Superfund site to surrounding areas. Uncertainty in simulated groundwater-flow paths from contaminant sources and contributing areas, resulting from uncertainty in estimated hydraulic properties of the model, was illustrated through Monte Carlo simulations. The effect of uncertainty in the vertical anisotropy was not included in the Monte Carlo simulations. Contributing areas indicating the general configuration of groundwater flow towards production well MG-202 (L-22) in the study area also were simulated for the different time periods; as simulated, the flow paths do not pass through any identified contaminant source in North Penn Area 7. However, contributing areas to wells, such as MG-202, located near many pumped wells are particularly complex and, in some cases, include areas that contribute flow to streams that subsequently recharge the aquifer through stream loss. In these cases, water-quality constituents, including contaminants that are present in surface water may be drawn into the aquifer to nearby pumped wells. Results of a simulated shutdown of well MG-202 under steady-state 2005 conditions showed that the area contributing recharge for nearby production well MG-76 (L-17), when MG-202 is not pumping, shifts downstream and is similar to the area contributing recharge for MG-202 when both wells are pumping. Concentrations of constituents in groundwater samples collected in fall 2005 or spring 2006 were compared to simulated groundwater-flow paths for the year 2005 to provide a qualitative assessment of model results. The observed spatial distribution of selected constituents, including TCE, CFC-11, and CFC-113 in groundwater in 2005 and the chloride/bromide mass ratios in 2006, generally were consistent with the model results of the simulated 2005 groundwater-flow paths at North Penn Area 7, indicating the presence of several separate sources of contaminants within North Penn Area 7.

Maturity Models of Healthcare Information Systems and Technologies: a Literature Review.

PubMed

Carvalho, João Vidal; Rocha, Álvaro; Abreu, António

2016-06-01

The maturity models are instruments to facilitate organizational management, including the management of its information systems function. These instruments are used also in hospitals. The objective of this article is to identify and compare the maturity models for management of information systems and technologies (IST) in healthcare. For each maturity model, it is identified the methodology of development and validation, as well as the scope, stages and their characteristics by dimensions or influence factors. This study resulted in the need to develop a maturity model based on a holistic approach. It will include a comprehensive set of influencing factors to reach all areas and subsystems of health care organizations.

From bench to patient: model systems in drug discovery

PubMed Central

Breyer, Matthew D.; Look, A. Thomas; Cifra, Alessandra

2015-01-01

ABSTRACT Model systems, including laboratory animals, microorganisms, and cell- and tissue-based systems, are central to the discovery and development of new and better drugs for the treatment of human disease. In this issue, Disease Models & Mechanisms launches a Special Collection that illustrates the contribution of model systems to drug discovery and optimisation across multiple disease areas. This collection includes reviews, Editorials, interviews with leading scientists with a foot in both academia and industry, and original research articles reporting new and important insights into disease therapeutics. This Editorial provides a summary of the collection's current contents, highlighting the impact of multiple model systems in moving new discoveries from the laboratory bench to the patients' bedsides. PMID:26438689

The CARIPANDA project: Climate change and water resources in the Adamello Natural Park of Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bocchiola, D.

2009-04-01

The three years (2007-2009) CARIPANDA project funded by the Cariplo Foundation of Italy is aimed to evaluate scenarios for water resources in the Adamello natural Park of Italy in a window of 50 years or so (until 2050). The project is led by Ente Parco Adamello and involves Politecnico di Milano, Università Statale di Milano, Università di Brescia, and ARPA Lombardia as scientific partners, while ENEL hydropower Company of Italy joins the project as stake holder. The Adamello Natural Park is a noteworthy resource in the Italian Alps. The Adamello Group is made of several glacierized areas (c. 24 km2), of both debris covered and free ice types, including the widest Italian Glacier, named Adamello, spreading on an area of about c. 18 km2. Also the Adamello Natural Reserve, covering 217 km2 inside the Adamello Park and including the Adamello glaciers, hosts a number of high altitude safeguarded vegetal and animal species, the safety of which is a primary task of the Reserve. Project's activity involves analysis of local climate trend, field campaigns on glaciers, hydrological modelling and remote sensing of snow and ice covered areas, aimed to build a consistent model of the present hydrological conditions and of the areas. Then, properly tailored climate change projections for the area, obtained using local data driven downscaling of climate change projections from GCMs model, are used to infer the likely response to expected climate change conditions. With two years in the project now some preliminary findings can be highlighted and some preliminary trend analysis carried out. The proposed poster provides a resume of the main results of the project insofar, of interest as a benchmark for similar ongoing and foregoing projects about climate change impact on European mountainous natural areas.

Intercomparison of hydrologic processes in global climate models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, W. K.-M.; Sud, Y. C.; Kim, J.-H.

1995-01-01

In this report, we address the intercomparison of precipitation (P), evaporation (E), and surface hydrologic forcing (P-E) for 23 Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) general circulation models (GCM's) including relevant observations, over a variety of spatial and temporal scales. The intercomparison includes global and hemispheric means, latitudinal profiles, selected area means for the tropics and extratropics, ocean and land, respectively. In addition, we have computed anomaly pattern correlations among models and observations for different seasons, harmonic analysis for annual and semiannual cycles, and rain-rate frequency distribution. We also compare the joint influence of temperature and precipitation on local climate using the Koeppen climate classification scheme.

Challenges of Modeling Swell Propagation and Sea Waves over a Complex Bathymetry: Implication for Coastal Flood Mapping in Sitka, AK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marjani, A.; Allahdadi, M.

2016-02-01

Sitka, AK is included in Region X of FEMA Flood Hazard Mapping. The scoped shoreline is located east of the Sitka Sound connecting Sitka to the Pacific waters through a semi-narrow continental shelf. Wave hindcast is a fundamental component of Coastal Flood Risk Study Process. SWAN model on an unstructured mesh was used to determine the characteristics of waves along the Sitka shoreline. This area is substantially affected by a combination of both offshore waves (swells) and waves generated by severe local winds. The bathymetry inside the Sitka Sound and the nearshore areas along the Sitka coastline is very complex and includes many abrupt deepening as a result of geological characteristics or large tidal currents. The present study provides a brief review of the steps and challenges for a reliable wave modeling over this area. The requirement for running the model in non-stationary mode in combination with the mentioned complexities initiated instabilities regarding intense refractions that cause unrealistic large values for the peak period and the wave height. Refining the computational mesh over the areas with great depth gradients as well as increasing the spectral grid resolution and decreasing time steps did not satisfactorily resolve the above issue. Choosing an appropriate CFL Limiters on Spectral Propagation Velocities in SWAN setup (which is not considered in the default settings) could properly treat this instability (See attached Figure). The model offshore boundary was prescribed using wave data obtained from the WIS buoys, while wind forcing was resulted as a combination of Sitka airport and offshore Buoy wind data. Model performance in transformation of swells from the open boundary was evaluated using two more offshore WIS buoy data. A 1D model transferred the extracted wave data from SWAN to the surfzone along each selected transect for each storm event. The the final production was runup with different recurrence periods along the shoreline.

Results and Lessons Learned from a Coupled Social and Physical Hydrology Model: Testing Alternative Water Management Policies and Institutional Structures Using Agent-Based Modeling and Regional Hydrology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murphy, J.; Lammers, R. B.; Prousevitch, A.; Ozik, J.; Altaweel, M.; Collier, N. T.; Kliskey, A. D.; Alessa, L.

2015-12-01

Water Management in the U.S. Southwest is under increasing scrutiny as many areas endure persistent drought. The impact of these prolonged dry conditions is a product of regional climate and hydrological conditions, but also of a highly engineered water management infrastructure and a complex web of social arrangements whereby water is allocated, shared, exchanged, used, re-used, and finally consumed. We coupled an agent-based model with a regional hydrological model to understand the dynamics in one richly studied and highly populous area: southern Arizona, U.S.A., including metropolitan Phoenix and Tucson. There, multiple management entities representing an array of municipalities and other water providers and customers, including private companies and Native American tribes are enmeshed in a complex legal and economic context in which water is bought, leased, banked, and exchanged in a variety of ways and on multiple temporal and physical scales. A recurrent question in the literature of adaptive management is the impact of management structure on overall system performance. To explore this, we constructed an agent-based model to capture this social complexity, and coupled this with a physical hydrological model that we used to drive the system under a variety of water stress scenarios and to assess the regional impact of the social system's performance. We report the outcomes of ensembles of runs in which varieties of alternative policy constraints and management strategies are considered. We hope to contribute to policy discussions in this area and connected and legislatively similar areas (such as California) as current conditions change and existing legal and policy structures are revised. Additionally, we comment on the challenges of integrating models that ostensibly are in different domains (physical and social) but that independently represent a system in which physical processes and human actions are closely intertwined and difficult to disentangle.

The unusual suspect: Land use is a key predictor of biodiversity patterns in the Iberian Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martins, Inês Santos; Proença, Vânia; Pereira, Henrique Miguel

2014-11-01

Although land use change is a key driver of biodiversity change, related variables such as habitat area and habitat heterogeneity are seldom considered in modeling approaches at larger extents. To address this knowledge gap we tested the contribution of land use related variables to models describing richness patterns of amphibians, reptiles and passerines in the Iberian Peninsula. We analyzed the relationship between species richness and habitat heterogeneity at two spatial resolutions (i.e., 10 km × 10 km and 50 km × 50 km). Using both ordinary least square and simultaneous autoregressive models, we assessed the relative importance of land use variables, climate variables and topographic variables. We also compare the species-area relationship with a multi-habitat model, the countryside species-area relationship, to assess the role of the area of different types of habitats on species diversity across scales. The association between habitat heterogeneity and species richness varied with the taxa and spatial resolution. A positive relationship was detected for all taxa at a grain size of 10 km × 10 km, but only passerines responded at a grain size of 50 km × 50 km. Species richness patterns were well described by abiotic predictors, but habitat predictors also explained a considerable portion of the variation. Moreover, species richness patterns were better described by a multi-habitat species-area model, incorporating land use variables, than by the classic power model, which only includes area as the single explanatory variable. Our results suggest that the role of land use in shaping species richness patterns goes beyond the local scale and persists at larger spatial scales. These findings call for the need of integrating land use variables in models designed to assess species richness response to large scale environmental changes.

NASA's Human Research Program at The Glenn Research Center: Progress and Opportunities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nall, Marsha; Griffin, DeVon; Myers, Jerry; Perusek, Gail

2008-01-01

The NASA Human Research Program is aimed at correcting problems in critical areas that place NASA human spaceflight missions at risk due to shortfalls in astronaut health, safety and performance. The Glenn Research Center (GRC) and partners from Ohio are significant contributors to this effort. This presentation describes several areas of GRC emphasis, the first being NASA s path to creating exercise hardware requirements and protocols that mitigate the effects of long duration spaceflight. Computational simulations will be a second area that is discussed. This includes deterministic models that simulate the effects of spaceflight on the human body, as well as probabilistic models that bound and quantify the probability that adverse medical incidents will happen during an exploration mission. Medical technology development for exploration will be the final area to be discussed.

Shared and Distinct Rupture Discriminants of Small and Large Intracranial Aneurysms.

PubMed

Varble, Nicole; Tutino, Vincent M; Yu, Jihnhee; Sonig, Ashish; Siddiqui, Adnan H; Davies, Jason M; Meng, Hui

2018-04-01

Many ruptured intracranial aneurysms (IAs) are small. Clinical presentations suggest that small and large IAs could have different phenotypes. It is unknown if small and large IAs have different characteristics that discriminate rupture. We analyzed morphological, hemodynamic, and clinical parameters of 413 retrospectively collected IAs (training cohort; 102 ruptured IAs). Hierarchal cluster analysis was performed to determine a size cutoff to dichotomize the IA population into small and large IAs. We applied multivariate logistic regression to build rupture discrimination models for small IAs, large IAs, and an aggregation of all IAs. We validated the ability of these 3 models to predict rupture status in a second, independently collected cohort of 129 IAs (testing cohort; 14 ruptured IAs). Hierarchal cluster analysis in the training cohort confirmed that small and large IAs are best separated at 5 mm based on morphological and hemodynamic features (area under the curve=0.81). For small IAs (<5 mm), the resulting rupture discrimination model included undulation index, oscillatory shear index, previous subarachnoid hemorrhage, and absence of multiple IAs (area under the curve=0.84; 95% confidence interval, 0.78-0.88), whereas for large IAs (≥5 mm), the model included undulation index, low wall shear stress, previous subarachnoid hemorrhage, and IA location (area under the curve=0.87; 95% confidence interval, 0.82-0.93). The model for the aggregated training cohort retained all the parameters in the size-dichotomized models. Results in the testing cohort showed that the size-dichotomized rupture discrimination model had higher sensitivity (64% versus 29%) and accuracy (77% versus 74%), marginally higher area under the curve (0.75; 95% confidence interval, 0.61-0.88 versus 0.67; 95% confidence interval, 0.52-0.82), and similar specificity (78% versus 80%) compared with the aggregate-based model. Small (<5 mm) and large (≥5 mm) IAs have different hemodynamic and clinical, but not morphological, rupture discriminants. Size-dichotomized rupture discrimination models performed better than the aggregate model. © 2018 American Heart Association, Inc.

An analysis of the North Rainier Elk Herd area, Washington: Change detection and habitat modeling with remote sensing and GIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benton, Joshua J.

The North Rainier Elk Herd (NREH) is one of ten designated herds in Washington State, all managed by the Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife (WDFW). To aid in the management of the herd, the WDFW has decided to implement a spatial ecosystem analysis. This thesis partially undertakes this analysis through the use of a suite of software tools, the Westside Elk Nutrition and Habitat Use Models (WENHUM). This model analyzes four covariates that have a strong correlation to elk habitat selection: dietary digestible energy (DDE); distance to roads open to the public; mean slope; and distance to cover-forage edge and returns areas of likely elk habitation or use. This thesis includes an update of the base vegetation layer from 2006 data to 2011, a series of clear cuts were identified as areas of change and fed into the WENHUM models. The addition of these clear cuts created improvements in the higher quality DDE levels and when the updated data is compared to the original, predictions of elk use are higher. The presence of open or closed roads was simulated by creating an area of possible closures, selecting candidate roads within that area and then modeling them as either "all open" or "all closed". The simulation of the road closures produced increases in the higher levels of predicted use.

An ice-ocean coupled model for the Northern Hemisphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cheng, Abe; Preller, Ruth

1992-01-01

The Hibler ice model has been modified and adapted to a domain that includes most of the sea ice-covered areas in the Northern Hemisphere. This model, joined with the Cox ocean model, is developed as an enhancement to the U.S. Navy's sea ice forecasting, PIPS, and is termed PIPS2.0. Generally, the modeled ice edge is consistent with the Navy-NOAA Joint Ice Center weekly analysis, and the modeled ice thickness distribution agrees with submarine sonar data in the central Arctic basin.

Gaining Control and Predictability of Software-Intensive Systems Development and Sustainment

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-02-04

implementation of the baselines, audits , and technical reviews within an overarching systems engineering process (SEP; Defense Acquisition University...warfighters’ needs. This management and metrics effort supplements and supports the system’s technical development through the baselines, audits and...other areas that could be researched and added into the nine-tier model. Areas including software metrics, quality assurance , software-oriented

The Economic Impact of Higher Education on the Kansas City Metropolitan Area 1988-1989. A Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kansas City Regional Council for Higher Education, MO.

A study was formally requested by the Kansas City Regional Council for Higher Education Institutional Research Directors' Group in the spring of 1990, to examine the economic impact of higher education on the Kansas City, Missouri and Kansas, metropolitan area. An economic impact model was used which includes the four major components of direct…

Timber supply and demand assessment of the Green and White Mountain National Forests' market area

Treesearch

Chris B. LeDoux; Paul E. Sendak; William H. McWilliams; Neil Huyler; Thomas Malecek; Worthen Muzzey; Toni Jones

2001-01-01

This report describes a timber supply and demand assessment of the Green and White Mountain National Forests' market area using USDA Forest Service, Forest Inventory and Analysis data, production information provided by forest industry, and a stump-to-mill logging cost-prediction model. Nonavailable timberland that includes reserve and steep-terrain lands is...

Guidelines for the use of mathematics in operational area-wide integrated pest management programs using the sterile insect technique with a special focus on Tephritid Fruit Flies

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Pest control managers can benefit from using mathematical approaches, particularly models, when implementing area-wide pest control programs that include sterile insect technique (SIT), especially when these are used to calculate required rates of sterile releases to result in suppression or eradica...

Numerical model of the circulation and dispersion in the east Adriatic coastal waters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beg Paklar, Gordana; Dzoic, Tomislav; Koracin, Darko; Matijevic, Slavica; Grbec, Branka; Ivatek-Sahdan, Stjepan

2017-04-01

The Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) was implemented to reproduce physical properties of the area around submarine outlet Stobrec in the middle Adriatic coastal area. ROMS model run was forced with realistic atmospheric fields obtained from meteorological model Aladin, climatological river discharges, tides and dynamics of the surrounding area imposed at the open boundaries. Atmospheric forcing included momentum, heat and water fluxes calculated interactively from the Aladin surface fields during ROMS model simulations. Simulated fields from the Adriatic and shelf scale models were used to prescribe the initial and open boundary conditions for fine resolution coastal domain. Model results were compared with available CTD measurements and discussed in the light of the climatological circulation and thermohaline properties of the middle Adriatic coastal area. Variability in the circulation is related to the prevailing atmospheric conditions, changes in the hydrological conditions and water mass exchange at the open boundaries. Basic features of the coastal circulation are well reproduced by the ROMS model, as well as temperatures and salinities which are within corresponding seasonal intervals, although with lower stratification than measured ones. In order to reproduce dispersion of the passive tracer the ROMS model was coupled with Lagrangian dispersion model. Multiyear monitoring of the physical, chemical and biological parameters around the sewage outlet was used to assess the quality of the dispersion model results. Among measured parameters, redox potential of the surface sediment layer was selected to be compared with model results as its negative values are direct consequence of increased organic matter input that can be attributed to the sewage system inflow.

CFD Code Development for Combustor Flows

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Norris, Andrew

2003-01-01

During the lifetime of this grant, work has been performed in the areas of model development, code development, code validation and code application. For model development, this has included the PDF combustion module, chemical kinetics based on thermodynamics, neural network storage of chemical kinetics, ILDM chemical kinetics and assumed PDF work. Many of these models were then implemented in the code, and in addition many improvements were made to the code, including the addition of new chemistry integrators, property evaluation schemes, new chemistry models and turbulence-chemistry interaction methodology. Validation of all new models and code improvements were also performed, while application of the code to the ZCET program and also the NPSS GEW combustor program were also performed. Several important items remain under development, including the NOx post processing, assumed PDF model development and chemical kinetic development. It is expected that this work will continue under the new grant.

Predicting the Effect of Changing Precipitation Extremes and Land Cover Change on Urban Water Quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

SUN, N.; Yearsley, J. R.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

2013-12-01

Recent research shows that precipitation extremes in many of the largest U.S. urban areas have increased over the last 60 years. These changes have important implications for stormwater runoff and water quality, which in urban areas are dominated by the most extreme precipitation events. We assess the potential implications of changes in extreme precipitation and changing land cover in urban and urbanizing watersheds at the regional scale using a combination of hydrology and water quality models. Specifically, we describe the integration of a spatially distributed hydrological model - the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM), the urban water quality model in EPA's Storm Water Management Model (SWMM), the semi-Lagrangian stream temperature model RBM10, and dynamical and statistical downscaling methods applied to global climate predictions. Key output water quality parameters include total suspended solids (TSS), toal nitrogen, total phosphorous, fecal coliform bacteria and stream temperature. We have evaluated the performance of the modeling system in the highly urbanized Mercer Creek watershed in the rapidly growing Bellevue urban area in WA, USA. The results suggest that the model is able to (1) produce reasonable streamflow predictions at fine temporal and spatial scales; (2) provide spatially distributed water temperature predictions that mostly agree with observations throughout a complex stream network, and characterize impacts of climate, landscape, near-stream vegetation change on stream temperature at local and regional scales; and (3) capture plausibly the response of water quality constituents to varying magnitude of precipitation events in urban environments. Next we will extend the scope of the study from the Mercer Creek watershed to include the entire Puget Sound Basin, WA, USA.

Development, Evaluation, and Application of a Primary Aerosol Model.

PubMed

Wang, I T; Chico, T; Huang, Y H; Farber, R J

1999-09-01

The Segmented-Plume Primary Aerosol Model (SPPAM) has been developed over the past several years. The earlier model development goals were simply to generalize the widely used Industrial Source Complex Short-Term (ISCST) model to simulate plume transport and dispersion under light wind conditions and to handle a large number of roadway or line sources. The goals have been expanded to include development of improved algorithm for effective plume transport velocity, more accurate and efficient line and area source dispersion algorithms, and recently, a more realistic and computationally efficient algorithm for plume depletion due to particle dry deposition. A performance evaluation of the SPPAM has been carried out using the 1983 PNL dual tracer experimental data. The results show the model predictions to be in good agreement with observations in both plume advection-dispersion and particulate matter (PM) depletion by dry deposition. For PM 2.5 impact analysis, the SPPAM has been applied to the Rubidoux area of California. Emission sources included in the modeling analysis are: paved road dust, diesel vehicular exhaust, gasoline vehicular exhaust, and tire wear particles from a large number of roadways in Rubidoux and surrounding areas. For the selected modeling periods, the predicted primary PM 2.5 to primary PM10 concentration ratios for the Rubidoux sampling station are in the range of 0.39-0.46. The organic fractions of the primary PM 2.5 impacts are estimated to be at least 34-41%. Detailed modeling results indicate that the relatively high organic fractions are primarily due to the proximity of heavily traveled roadways north of the sampling station. The predictions are influenced by a number of factors; principal among them are the receptor locations relative to major roadways, the volume and composition of traffic on these roadways, and the prevailing meteorological conditions.

A controlled evaluation of the WHO Safe Communities model approach to injury prevention: increasing child restraint use in motor vehicles.

PubMed

Istre, Gregory R; Stowe, Martha; McCoy, Mary A; Moore, Billy J; Culica, Dan; Womack, Katie N; Anderson, Ron J

2011-02-01

To measure the effect of the WHO Safe Communities model approach to increasing child restraint use in motor vehicles. Pre- and post-intervention observations of restraint use in motor vehicles in several sites in the target area, and in a comparison area community. Community; southeast Dallas, Texas, 2003-2005. A multifaceted approach to increasing use of child safety seats, booster seats and seat belts that included efforts in schools, day care centres, neighbourhoods and a local public clinic, along with child safety seat classes and a low-cost distribution programme. Prevalence of restraint use among children 0-8 years old riding in motor vehicles. In the target area, the adjusted child restraint use increased by 23.9 percentage points versus 11.8 in the comparison area (difference 12.1; 95% CI 9.9 to 14.3), and adjusted driver seat belt use increased by 16.3 percentage points in the target area versus 4.9 in the comparison area (difference 11.4; 95% CI 11.0 to 11.7). Multivariable multilevel analysis showed that the increase in the target area was significantly greater than in the comparison area for child restraint use (OR 1.6; 95% CI 1.2 to 2.2), as well as for driver seat belt use and proportion of children riding in the back seat. The Safe Communities approach was successful in promoting the use of child restraints in motor vehicles through a multifaceted intervention that included efforts in various community settings, instructional classes and child safety seat distribution.

Modeling the effect of photosynthetic vegetation properties on the NDVI--LAI relationship.

PubMed

Steltzer, Heidi; Welker, Jeffrey M

2006-11-01

Developing a relationship between the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and the leaf area index (LAI) is essential to describe the pattern of spatial or temporal variation in LAI that controls carbon, water, and energy exchange in many ecosystem process models. Photosynthetic vegetation (PV) properties can affect the estimation of LAI, but no models integrate the effects of multiple species. We developed four alternative NDVI-LAI models, three of which integrate PV effects: no PV effects, leaf-level effects, canopy-level effects, and effects at both levels. The models were fit to data across the natural range of variation in NDVI for a widespread High Arctic ecosystem. The weight of evidence supported the canopy-level model (Akaike weight, wr = 0.98), which includes species-specific canopy coefficients that primarily scale fractional PV cover to LAI by accounting for the area of unexposed PV. Modeling the canopy-level effects improved prediction of LAI (R2 = 0.82) over the model with no PV effect (R2 = 0.71) across the natural range of variation in NDVI but did not affect the site-level estimate of LAI. Satellite-based methods to estimate species composition, a variable in the model, will need to be developed. We expect that including the effects of PV properties in NDVI-LAI models will improve prediction of LAI where species composition varies across space or changes over time.

Beyond a Climate-Centric View of Plant Distribution: Edaphic Variables Add Value to Distribution Models

PubMed Central

Beauregard, Frieda; de Blois, Sylvie

2014-01-01

Both climatic and edaphic conditions determine plant distribution, however many species distribution models do not include edaphic variables especially over large geographical extent. Using an exceptional database of vegetation plots (n = 4839) covering an extent of ∼55000 km2, we tested whether the inclusion of fine scale edaphic variables would improve model predictions of plant distribution compared to models using only climate predictors. We also tested how well these edaphic variables could predict distribution on their own, to evaluate the assumption that at large extents, distribution is governed largely by climate. We also hypothesized that the relative contribution of edaphic and climatic data would vary among species depending on their growth forms and biogeographical attributes within the study area. We modelled 128 native plant species from diverse taxa using four statistical model types and three sets of abiotic predictors: climate, edaphic, and edaphic-climate. Model predictive accuracy and variable importance were compared among these models and for species' characteristics describing growth form, range boundaries within the study area, and prevalence. For many species both the climate-only and edaphic-only models performed well, however the edaphic-climate models generally performed best. The three sets of predictors differed in the spatial information provided about habitat suitability, with climate models able to distinguish range edges, but edaphic models able to better distinguish within-range variation. Model predictive accuracy was generally lower for species without a range boundary within the study area and for common species, but these effects were buffered by including both edaphic and climatic predictors. The relative importance of edaphic and climatic variables varied with growth forms, with trees being more related to climate whereas lower growth forms were more related to edaphic conditions. Our study identifies the potential for non-climate aspects of the environment to pose a constraint to range expansion under climate change. PMID:24658097

Beyond a climate-centric view of plant distribution: edaphic variables add value to distribution models.

PubMed

Beauregard, Frieda; de Blois, Sylvie

2014-01-01

Both climatic and edaphic conditions determine plant distribution, however many species distribution models do not include edaphic variables especially over large geographical extent. Using an exceptional database of vegetation plots (n = 4839) covering an extent of ∼55,000 km2, we tested whether the inclusion of fine scale edaphic variables would improve model predictions of plant distribution compared to models using only climate predictors. We also tested how well these edaphic variables could predict distribution on their own, to evaluate the assumption that at large extents, distribution is governed largely by climate. We also hypothesized that the relative contribution of edaphic and climatic data would vary among species depending on their growth forms and biogeographical attributes within the study area. We modelled 128 native plant species from diverse taxa using four statistical model types and three sets of abiotic predictors: climate, edaphic, and edaphic-climate. Model predictive accuracy and variable importance were compared among these models and for species' characteristics describing growth form, range boundaries within the study area, and prevalence. For many species both the climate-only and edaphic-only models performed well, however the edaphic-climate models generally performed best. The three sets of predictors differed in the spatial information provided about habitat suitability, with climate models able to distinguish range edges, but edaphic models able to better distinguish within-range variation. Model predictive accuracy was generally lower for species without a range boundary within the study area and for common species, but these effects were buffered by including both edaphic and climatic predictors. The relative importance of edaphic and climatic variables varied with growth forms, with trees being more related to climate whereas lower growth forms were more related to edaphic conditions. Our study identifies the potential for non-climate aspects of the environment to pose a constraint to range expansion under climate change.

A hierarchy for modeling high speed propulsion systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hartley, Tom T.; Deabreu, Alex

1991-01-01

General research efforts on reduced order propulsion models for control systems design are overviewed. Methods for modeling high speed propulsion systems are discussed including internal flow propulsion systems that do not contain rotating machinery, such as inlets, ramjets, and scramjets. The discussion is separated into four areas: (1) computational fluid dynamics models for the entire nonlinear system or high order nonlinear models; (2) high order linearized models derived from fundamental physics; (3) low order linear models obtained from the other high order models; and (4) low order nonlinear models (order here refers to the number of dynamic states). Included in the discussion are any special considerations based on the relevant control system designs. The methods discussed are for the quasi-one-dimensional Euler equations of gasdynamic flow. The essential nonlinear features represented are large amplitude nonlinear waves, including moving normal shocks, hammershocks, simple subsonic combustion via heat addition, temperature dependent gases, detonations, and thermal choking. The report also contains a comprehensive list of papers and theses generated by this grant.

Users guide for the hydroacoustic coverage assessment model (HydroCAM)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Farrell, T., LLNL

1997-12-01

A model for predicting the detection and localization performance of hydroacoustic monitoring networks has been developed. The model accounts for major factors affecting global-scale acoustic propagation in the ocean. including horizontal refraction, travel time variability due to spatial and temporal fluctuations in the ocean, and detailed characteristics of the source. Graphical user interfaces are provided to setup the models and visualize the results. The model produces maps of network detection coverage and localization area of uncertainty, as well as intermediate results such as predicted path amplitudes, travel time and travel time variance. This Users Guide for the model is organizedmore » into three sections. First a summary of functionality available in the model is presented, including example output products. The second section provides detailed descriptions of each of models contained in the system. The last section describes how to run the model, including a summary of each data input form in the user interface.« less

Modeling of episodic particulate matter events using a 3-D air quality model with fine grid: Applications to a pair of cities in the US/Mexico border

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, Yu-Jin; Hyde, Peter; Fernando, H. J. S.

High (episodic) particulate matter (PM) events over the sister cities of Douglas (AZ) and Agua Prieta (Sonora), located in the US-Mexico border, were simulated using the 3D Eulerian air quality model, MODELS-3/CMAQ. The best available input information was used for the simulations, with pollution inventory specified on a fine grid. In spite of inherent uncertainties associated with the emission inventory as well as the chemistry and meteorology of the air quality simulation tool, model evaluations showed acceptable PM predictions, while demonstrating the need for including the interaction between meteorology and emissions in an interactive mode in the model, a capability currently unavailable in MODELS-3/CMAQ when dealing with PM. Sensitivity studies on boundary influence indicate an insignificant regional (advection) contribution of PM to the study area. The contribution of secondary particles to the occurrence of high PM events was trivial. High PM episodes in the study area, therefore, are purely local events that largely depend on local meteorological conditions. The major PM emission sources were identified as vehicular activities on unpaved/paved roads and wind-blown dust. The results will be of immediate utility in devising PM mitigation strategies for the study area, which is one of the US EPA-designated non-attainment areas with respect to PM.

The Use of CASES-97 Observations to Assess and Parameterize the Impact of Land-Surface Heterogeneity on Area-Average Surface Heat Fluxes for Large-Scale Coupled Atmosphere-Hydrology Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chen, Fei; Yates, David; LeMone, Margaret

2001-01-01

To understand the effects of land-surface heterogeneity and the interactions between the land-surface and the planetary boundary layer at different scales, we develop a multiscale data set. This data set, based on the Cooperative Atmosphere-Surface Exchange Study (CASES97) observations, includes atmospheric, surface, and sub-surface observations obtained from a dense observation network covering a large region on the order of 100 km. We use this data set to drive three land-surface models (LSMs) to generate multi-scale (with three resolutions of 1, 5, and 10 kilometers) gridded surface heat flux maps for the CASES area. Upon validating these flux maps with measurements from surface station and aircraft, we utilize them to investigate several approaches for estimating the area-integrated surface heat flux for the CASES97 domain of 71x74 square kilometers, which is crucial for land surface model development/validation and area water and energy budget studies. This research is aimed at understanding the relative contribution of random turbulence versus organized mesoscale circulations to the area-integrated surface flux at the scale of 100 kilometers, and identifying the most important effective parameters for characterizing the subgrid-scale variability for large-scale atmosphere-hydrology models.

Air quality assessment in the periurban area of Mexico Megacity during dry hot season in 2011 and 2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia-Reynoso, Agustin; Santos Garcia-Yee, Jose; Barrera-Huertas, Hugo; Gerardo Ruiz-Suárez, Luis

2016-04-01

Air quality is a human health threat not only in urbanized areas, it also affects the surrounding zones. Interaction between urban and rural areas can be evaluated by measurements and using models for regional areas that includes in its domain the peri-urban regions. The use of monitoring sites in remote areas is useful however it is not possible to cover all the region the use of models can provide valuable information about the source and fate of the pollution and its transformation. In order to evaluate the influence of the Mexico Megacity in the air quality of the region, two field campaigns were performed during the dry hot season during 2011 and 2012. Meterological and pollutant measurements were made during February and march 2011, in three sites towards the south east of Mexico Megacity, and from march to April 2012 towards the west after the Popocatepetl-Iztaccihuatl mountain range. Air quality modeling were performed by using the National Emissions Inventory 2008 during the studied periods, a comparison between measurements and the air quality model was performed. This type of studies can offer information about the pollutant distribution, the meteorological conditions and the exactness of emissions inventories. The latest can be useful for emissions inventory developers and policy makers.

Forecasting the Human Pathogen Vibrio Parahaemolyticus in Shellfish Tissue within Long Island Sound

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Whitney, M. M.; DeRosia-Banick, K.

2016-02-01

Vibrio parahaemolyticus (Vp) is a marine bacterium that occurs naturally in brackish and saltwater environments and may be found in higher concentrations in the warmest months. Vp is a growing threat to producing safe seafood. Consumption of shellfish with high Vp levels can result in gastrointestinal human illnesses. Management response to Vp-related illness outbreaks includes closure of shellfish growing areas. Water quality observations, Vp measurements, and model forecasts are key components to effective management of shellfish growing areas. There is a clear need for observations within the growing area themselves. These areas are offshore of coastal stations and typically inshore of the observing system moorings. New field observations in Long Island Sound (LIS) shellfish growing areas are described and their agreement with high-resolution satellite sea surface temperature data is discussed. A new dataset of Vp concentrations in shellfish tissue is used to determine the LIS-specific Vp vs. temperature relationship following methods in the FDA pre-harvest Vp risk model. This information is combined with output from a high-resolution hydrodynamic model of LIS to make daily forecasts of Vp levels. The influence of river inflows, the role of heat waves, and predictions for future warmer climates are discussed. The key elements of this observational-modeling approach to pathogen forecasting are extendable to other coastal systems.

Simulation of ground-water flow in the Vevay Township area, Ingham County, Michigan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Luukkonen, Carol L.; Simard, Andreanne

2004-01-01

Ground water is the primary source of water for domestic, public-supply, and industrial use within the Tri-County region that includes Clinton, Eaton, and Ingham Counties in Michigan. Because of the importance of this ground-water resource, numerous communities, including the city of Mason in Ingham County, have begun local Wellhead Protection Programs. In these programs, communities protect their groundwater resource by identifying the areas that contribute water to production wells and potential sources of contamination, and by developing methods to manage and minimize threats to the water supply. In addition, some communities in Michigan are concerned about water availability, particularly in areas experiencing water-level declines in the vicinity of quarry dewatering operations. In areas where Wellhead Protection Programs are implemented and there are potential threats to the water supply, residents and communities need adequate information to protect the water supply.In 1996, a regional ground-water-flow model was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey to simulate ground-water flow in Clinton, Eaton, and Ingham Counties. This model was developed primarily to simulate the bedrock ground-waterflow system; ground-water flow in the unconsolidated glacial sediments was simulated to support analysis of flow in the underlying bedrock Saginaw aquifer. Since its development in 1996, regional model simulations have been conducted to address protection concerns and water availability questions of local water-resources managers. As a result of these continuing model simulations, additional hydrogeologic data have been acquired in the Tri-County region that has improved the characterization of the simulated ground-water-flow system and improved the model calibration. A major benefit of these updates and refinements is that the regional Tri-County model continues to be a useful tool that improves the understanding of the ground-water-flow system in the Tri-County region, provides local water-resources managers with a means to answer ground-water protection and availability questions, and serves as an example that can be applied in other areas of the state.A refined version of the 1996 Tri-County regional ground-water-flow model, developed in 1997, was modified with local hydrogeologic information in the Vevay Township area in Michigan. This model, updated in 2003 for this study, was used to simulate ground-water flow to address groundwater protection and availability questions in Vevay Township. The 2003 model included refinement of glacial and bedrock hydraulic characteristics, better representation of the degree of connection between the glacial deposits and the underlying Saginaw aquifer, and refinement of the model cell size.The 2003 model was used to simulate regional groundwater flow, to delineate areas contributing recharge and zones of contribution to production wells in the city of Mason, and to simulate the effects of present and possible future withdrawals. The areal extent of the 10- and 40-year areas contributing recharge and the zones of contribution for the city of Mason's production wells encompass about 2.3 and 6.2 square miles, respectively. Simulation results, where withdrawals for quarry operations were represented by one well pumping at 1.6 million gallons per day, indicate that water levels would decline slightly over 1 foot approximately 2 miles from the quarry in the glacial deposits and in the Saginaw aquifer. With a reduction of the local riverbed conductance or removal of local river model cells representing Mud Creek, water-level declines would extend further west of Mud Creek and further to the north, east, and south of the simulated quarry. Simulation results indicate that water withdrawn for quarry dewatering operations would decrease ground-water recharge to nearby Mud Creek, would increase ground-water discharge from Mud Creek, and that local water levels would be lowered as a result.

Partially annotated bibliography for computer protection and related topics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Huskamp, J.C.

1976-07-20

References for the commonly cited technical papers in the area of computer protection are given. Great care is taken to exclude papers with no technical content or merit. For the purposes of this bibliography, computer protection is broadly defined to encompass all facets of the protection problem. The papers cover, but are not limited to, the topics of protection features in operating systems (e.g., MULTICS and HYDRA), hardware implementations of protection facilities (e.g., Honeywell 6180, System 250, BCC 5000, B6500), data base protection controls, confinement and protection models. Since computer protection is related to many other areas in computer sciencemore » and electrical engineering, a bibliography of related areas is included after the protection bibliography. These sections also include articles of general interest in the named areas which are not necessarily related to protection.« less

Organization of the Macaque Extrastriate Visual Cortex Re-Examined Using the Principle of Spatial Continuity of Function

PubMed Central

Aflalo, T. N.

2011-01-01

How is the macaque monkey extrastriate cortex organized? Is vision divisible into separate tasks, such as object recognition and spatial processing, each emphasized in a different anatomical stream? If so, how many streams exist? What are the hierarchical relationships among areas? The present study approached the organization of the extrastriate cortex in a novel manner. A principled relationship exists between cortical function and cortical topography. Similar functions tend to be located near each other, within the constraints of mapping a highly dimensional space of functions onto the two-dimensional space of the cortex. We used this principle to re-examine the functional organization of the extrastriate cortex given current knowledge about its topographic organization. The goal of the study was to obtain a model of the functional relationships among the visual areas, including the number of functional streams into which they are grouped, the pattern of informational overlap among the streams, and the hierarchical relationships among areas. To test each functional description, we mapped it to a model cortex according to the principle of optimal continuity and assessed whether it accurately reconstructed a version of the extrastriate topography. Of the models tested, the one that best reconstructed the topography included four functional streams rather than two, six levels of hierarchy per stream, and a specific pattern of informational overlap among streams and areas. A specific mixture of functions was predicted for each visual area. This description matched findings in the physiological literature, and provided predictions of functional relationships that have yet to be tested physiologically. PMID:21068269

Connecting today's climates to future climate analogs to facilitate movement of species under climate change.

PubMed

Littlefield, Caitlin E; McRae, Brad H; Michalak, Julia L; Lawler, Joshua J; Carroll, Carlos

2017-12-01

Increasing connectivity is an important strategy for facilitating species range shifts and maintaining biodiversity in the face of climate change. To date, however, few researchers have included future climate projections in efforts to prioritize areas for increasing connectivity. We identified key areas likely to facilitate climate-induced species' movement across western North America. Using historical climate data sets and future climate projections, we mapped potential species' movement routes that link current climate conditions to analogous climate conditions in the future (i.e., future climate analogs) with a novel moving-window analysis based on electrical circuit theory. In addition to tracing shifting climates, the approach accounted for landscape permeability and empirically derived species' dispersal capabilities. We compared connectivity maps generated with our climate-change-informed approach with maps of connectivity based solely on the degree of human modification of the landscape. Including future climate projections in connectivity models substantially shifted and constrained priority areas for movement to a smaller proportion of the landscape than when climate projections were not considered. Potential movement, measured as current flow, decreased in all ecoregions when climate projections were included, particularly when dispersal was limited, which made climate analogs inaccessible. Many areas emerged as important for connectivity only when climate change was modeled in 2 time steps rather than in a single time step. Our results illustrate that movement routes needed to track changing climatic conditions may differ from those that connect present-day landscapes. Incorporating future climate projections into connectivity modeling is an important step toward facilitating successful species movement and population persistence in a changing climate. © 2017 Society for Conservation Biology.

Shapes of embedded minimal surfaces

PubMed Central

Colding, Tobias H.; Minicozzi, William P.

2006-01-01

Surfaces that locally minimize area have been extensively used to model physical phenomena, including soap films, black holes, compound polymers, protein folding, etc. The mathematical field dates to the 1740s but has recently become an area of intense mathematical and scientific study, specifically in the areas of molecular engineering, materials science, and nanotechnology because of their many anticipated applications. In this work, we show that all minimal surfaces are built out of pieces of the surfaces in Figs. 1 and 2. PMID:16847265

Integrating social media and remote sensing data in a model framework to identify vulnerable areas in coastal cities after disasters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gopalakrishnan, G.

2013-12-01

In the aftermath of man-made disasters such as oil spills or natural disasters such as hurricanes and floods, city planners and residents of affected areas are often concerned about future vulnerabilities and rebuilding the area to increase resilience. However, identifying locations in the affected area that are most impacted by the disaster, the associated human health risks and potential vulnerabilities often require a monitoring effort that is expensive, time-consuming and difficult to implement in disaster-hit areas using traditional monitoring techniques. This project presents a framework for identifying areas that are most likely to be impacted by disasters by integrating remote sensing data and information from social media networks, including Twitter streams. The framework was tested for New York, coastal New Jersey and Staten Island in the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy. Vulnerable areas were identified using anomaly detection and the results were mapped against measurements collected on the ground. A correlation coefficient of 0.78 was obtained. Uncertainty in model predictions was evaluated using Monte Carlo simulations.

Multi-Material ALE with AMR for Modeling Hot Plasmas and Cold Fragmenting Materials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alice, Koniges; Nathan, Masters; Aaron, Fisher; David, Eder; Wangyi, Liu; Robert, Anderson; David, Benson; Andrea, Bertozzi

2015-02-01

We have developed a new 3D multi-physics multi-material code, ALE-AMR, which combines Arbitrary Lagrangian Eulerian (ALE) hydrodynamics with Adaptive Mesh Refinement (AMR) to connect the continuum to the microstructural regimes. The code is unique in its ability to model hot radiating plasmas and cold fragmenting solids. New numerical techniques were developed for many of the physics packages to work efficiently on a dynamically moving and adapting mesh. We use interface reconstruction based on volume fractions of the material components within mixed zones and reconstruct interfaces as needed. This interface reconstruction model is also used for void coalescence and fragmentation. A flexible strength/failure framework allows for pluggable material models, which may require material history arrays to determine the level of accumulated damage or the evolving yield stress in J2 plasticity models. For some applications laser rays are propagating through a virtual composite mesh consisting of the finest resolution representation of the modeled space. A new 2nd order accurate diffusion solver has been implemented for the thermal conduction and radiation transport packages. One application area is the modeling of laser/target effects including debris/shrapnel generation. Other application areas include warm dense matter, EUV lithography, and material wall interactions for fusion devices.

Urban forests for sustainable urban development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sundara, Denny M.; Hartono, Djoko M.; Suganda, Emirhadi; Haeruman, S. Herman J.

2017-11-01

This paper explores the development of the urban forest in East Jakarta. By 2030 Jakarta area has a target of 30% green area covering 19,845 hectares, including urban forest covering an area of 4,631 hectares. In 2015, the city forest is only 646 hectares, while the city requires 3,985 hectares of new land Urban forest growth from year to year showed a marked decrease with increasing land area awoke to commercial functions, environmental conditions encourage the development of the city to become unsustainable. This research aims to support sustainable urban development and ecological balance through the revitalization of green areas and urban development. Analytical methods for urban forest area is calculated based on the amount of CO2 that comes from people, vehicles, and industrial. Urban spatial analysis based on satellite image data, using a GIS program is an analysis tool to determine the distribution and growth patterns of green areas. This paper uses a dynamic system model to simulate the conditions of the region against intervention to be performed on potential areas for development of urban forests. The result is a model urban forest area is integrated with a social and economic function to encourage the development of sustainable cities.

Application of SWAT and CAST model on Damma Glacier CZO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andrianaki, Maria; Bernasconi, Stefano; Kobierska, Florian; Nikolaidis, Nikolaos

2014-05-01

Damma Glacier is one of the Critical Zone Observatories, located at the central Swiss Alps, Switzerland and is characterized by a 150-year soil chronosequence. In this study, we used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to simulate the hydrology of the watershed of Damma glacier, Switzerland and of the extended area that feeds Goescheneralpsee and includes Damma watershed. SWAT was calibrated for the watershed of Damma glacier with the stream flow data collected between 2009 and 2011. Subsequently and in order to study the up-scalling effect, SWAT was run for the greater area using the same parameters. Carbon accumulation and aggregate formation along Damma soil chronosequence was modelled using ROTH-C and CAST models.

Comparative Analysis of InSAR Digital Surface Models for Test Area Bucharest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dana, Iulia; Poncos, Valentin; Teleaga, Delia

2010-03-01

This paper presents the results of the interferometric processing of ERS Tandem, ENVISAT and TerraSAR- X for digital surface model (DSM) generation. The selected test site is Bucharest (Romania), a built-up area characterized by the usual urban complex pattern: mixture of buildings with different height levels, paved roads, vegetation, and water bodies. First, the DSMs were generated following the standard interferometric processing chain. Then, the accuracy of the DSMs was analyzed against the SPOT HRS model (30 m resolution at the equator). A DSM derived by optical stereoscopic processing of SPOT 5 HRG data and also the SRTM (3 arc seconds resolution at the equator) DSM have been included in the comparative analysis.

Surrounding land cover types as predictors of palustrine wetland vegetation quality in conterminous USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stapanian, Martin A.; Gara, Brian; Schumacher, William

2018-01-01

The loss of wetland habitats and their often-unique biological communities is a major environmental concern. We examined vegetation data obtained from 380 wetlands sampled in a statistical survey of wetlands in the USA. Our goal was to identify which surrounding land cover types best predict two indices of vegetation quality in wetlands at the regional scale. We considered palustrine wetlands in four regions (Coastal Plains, North Central East, Interior Plains, and West) in which the dominant vegetation was emergent, forested, or scrub-shrub. For each wetland, we calculated weighted proportions of eight land cover types surrounding the area in which vegetation was assessed, in four zones radiating from the edge of the assessment area to 2 km. Using Akaike's Information Criterion, we determined the best 1-, 2- and 3-predictor models of the two indices, using the weighted proportions of the land cover types as potential predictors. Mean values of the two indices were generally higher in the North Central East and Coastal Plains than the other regions for forested and emergent wetlands. In nearly all cases, the best predictors of the indices were not the dominant surrounding land cover types. Overall, proportions of forest (positive effect) and agriculture (negative effect) surrounding the assessment area were the best predictors of the two indices. One or both of these variables were included as predictors in 65 of the 72 models supported by the data. Wetlands surrounding the assessment area had a positive effect on the indices, and ranked third (33%) among the predictors included in supported models. Development had a negative effect on the indices and was included in only 28% of supported models. These results can be used to develop regional management plans for wetlands, such as creating forest buffers around wetlands, or to conserve zones between wetlands to increase habitat connectivity.

Admission Models for At-Risk Graduate Students in Different Academic Disciplines.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nelson, C. Van; Nelson, Jacquelyn S.; Malone, Bobby G.

In this study, models were constructed for eight academic areas, including applied sciences, communication sciences, education, physical sciences, life sciences, humanities and arts, psychology, and social sciences, to predict whether or not an at-risk graduate student would be successful in obtaining a master's degree. Records were available for…

A Mathematical Model of the Great Solar Eclipse of 1991.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lamb, John Jr.

1991-01-01

An activity that shows how mathematics can be used to model events in the real world is described. A way to calculate the area of the sun covered by the moon during a partial eclipse is presented. A computer program that will determine the coverage percentage is also included. (KR)

Near-source air quality in rail yard environments – an overview of recent EPA measurement and modeling findings

EPA Science Inventory

This presentation will providing a summary of field measurements conducted in areas surrounding two major rail yards as well as modeling simulations of rail yard emissions dispersion. The Cicero Rail Yard Study (CIRYS) was recently released to the public and includes mobile and ...

A Continuum Model of Social/Sexual Curriculum and Programming Services.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Heler, Ann, Ed.

This packet of materials from the Wayne County (Michigan) Intermediate School District offers a continuum model of social/sexual curriculum and programming services. Materials include: (1) a copy of a district school board policy giving school districts permission to pursue these curriculum areas; (2) staff guidelines for dealing with students…

The Cultural Mind: Environmental Decision Making and Cultural Modeling within and across Populations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Atran, Scott; Medin, Douglas L.; Ross, Norbert O.

2005-01-01

This article describes cross-cultural research on the relation between how people conceptualize nature and how they act in it. Mental models of nature differ dramatically among populations living in the same area and engaged in similar activities. This has novel implications for environmental decision making and management, including commons…

Vibro-Acoustic FE Analyses of the Saab 2000 Aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Green, Inge S.

1992-01-01

A finite element model of the Saab 2000 fuselage structure and interior cavity has been created in order to compute the noise level in the passenger cabin due to propeller noise. Areas covered in viewgraph format include the following: coupled acoustic/structural noise; data base creation; frequency response analysis; model validation; and planned analyses.

A modeling framework for life history-based conservation planning

Treesearch

Eileen S. Burns; Sandor F. Toth; Robert G. Haight

2013-01-01

Reserve site selection models can be enhanced by including habitat conditions that populations need for food, shelter, and reproduction. We present a new population protection function that determines whether minimum areas of land with desired habitat features are present within the desired spatial conditions in the protected sites. Embedding the protection function as...

What's My Math Course Got to Do with Biology?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Burks, Robert; Lindquist, Joseph; McMurran, Shawnee

2008-01-01

At United States Military Academy, a unit on biological modeling applications forms the culminating component of the first semester core mathematics course for freshmen. The course emphasizes the use of problem-solving strategies and modeling to solve complex and ill-defined problems. Topic areas include functions and their shapes, data fitting,…

Spin foam models for quantum gravity from lattice path integrals

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bonzom, Valentin

2009-09-15

Spin foam models for quantum gravity are derived from lattice path integrals. The setting involves variables from both lattice BF theory and Regge calculus. The action consists in a Regge action, which depends on areas, dihedral angles and includes the Immirzi parameter. In addition, a measure is inserted to ensure a consistent gluing of simplices, so that the amplitude is dominated by configurations that satisfy the parallel transport relations. We explicitly compute the path integral as a sum over spin foams for a generic measure. The Freidel-Krasnov and Engle-Pereira-Rovelli models correspond to a special choice of gluing. In this case,more » the equations of motion describe genuine geometries, where the constraints of area-angle Regge calculus are satisfied. Furthermore, the Immirzi parameter drops out of the on-shell action, and stationarity with respect to area variations requires spacetime geometry to be flat.« less

Tooth enamel oxygen "isoscapes" show a high degree of human mobility in prehistoric Britain.

PubMed

Pellegrini, Maura; Pouncett, John; Jay, Mandy; Pearson, Mike Parker; Richards, Michael P

2016-10-07

A geostatistical model to predict human skeletal oxygen isotope values (δ 18 O p ) in Britain is presented here based on a new dataset of Chalcolithic and Early Bronze Age human teeth. The spatial statistics which underpin this model allow the identification of individuals interpreted as 'non-local' to the areas where they were buried (spatial outliers). A marked variation in δ 18 O p is observed in several areas, including the Stonehenge region, the Peak District, and the Yorkshire Wolds, suggesting a high degree of human mobility. These areas, rich in funerary and ceremonial monuments, may have formed focal points for people, some of whom would have travelled long distances, ultimately being buried there. The dataset and model represent a baseline for future archaeological studies, avoiding the complex conversions from skeletal to water δ 18 O values-a process known to be problematic.

Modeling of information on the impact of mining exploitation on bridge objects in BIM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bętkowski, Piotr

2018-04-01

The article discusses the advantages of BIM (Building Information Modeling) technology in the management of bridge infrastructure on mining areas. The article shows the problems with information flow in the case of bridge objects located on mining areas and the advantages of proper information management, e.g. the possibility of automatic monitoring of structures, improvement of safety, optimization of maintenance activities, cost reduction of damage removal and preventive actions, improvement of atmosphere for mining exploitation, improvement of the relationship between the manager of the bridge and the mine. Traditional model of managing bridge objects on mining areas has many disadvantages, which are discussed in this article. These disadvantages include among others: duplication of information about the object, lack of correlation in investments due to lack of information flow between bridge manager and mine, limited assessment possibilities of damage propagation on technical condition and construction resistance to mining influences.

Tooth enamel oxygen “isoscapes” show a high degree of human mobility in prehistoric Britain

PubMed Central

Pellegrini, Maura; Pouncett, John; Jay, Mandy; Pearson, Mike Parker; Richards, Michael P.

2016-01-01

A geostatistical model to predict human skeletal oxygen isotope values (δ18Op) in Britain is presented here based on a new dataset of Chalcolithic and Early Bronze Age human teeth. The spatial statistics which underpin this model allow the identification of individuals interpreted as ‘non-local’ to the areas where they were buried (spatial outliers). A marked variation in δ18Op is observed in several areas, including the Stonehenge region, the Peak District, and the Yorkshire Wolds, suggesting a high degree of human mobility. These areas, rich in funerary and ceremonial monuments, may have formed focal points for people, some of whom would have travelled long distances, ultimately being buried there. The dataset and model represent a baseline for future archaeological studies, avoiding the complex conversions from skeletal to water δ18O values–a process known to be problematic. PMID:27713538

Tooth enamel oxygen “isoscapes” show a high degree of human mobility in prehistoric Britain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pellegrini, Maura; Pouncett, John; Jay, Mandy; Pearson, Mike Parker; Richards, Michael P.

2016-10-01

A geostatistical model to predict human skeletal oxygen isotope values (δ18Op) in Britain is presented here based on a new dataset of Chalcolithic and Early Bronze Age human teeth. The spatial statistics which underpin this model allow the identification of individuals interpreted as ‘non-local’ to the areas where they were buried (spatial outliers). A marked variation in δ18Op is observed in several areas, including the Stonehenge region, the Peak District, and the Yorkshire Wolds, suggesting a high degree of human mobility. These areas, rich in funerary and ceremonial monuments, may have formed focal points for people, some of whom would have travelled long distances, ultimately being buried there. The dataset and model represent a baseline for future archaeological studies, avoiding the complex conversions from skeletal to water δ18O values-a process known to be problematic.

Ability of crime, demographic and business data to forecast areas of increased violence.

PubMed

Bowen, Daniel A; Mercer Kollar, Laura M; Wu, Daniel T; Fraser, David A; Flood, Charles E; Moore, Jasmine C; Mays, Elizabeth W; Sumner, Steven A

2018-05-24

Identifying geographic areas and time periods of increased violence is of considerable importance in prevention planning. This study compared the performance of multiple data sources to prospectively forecast areas of increased interpersonal violence. We used 2011-2014 data from a large metropolitan county on interpersonal violence (homicide, assault, rape and robbery) and forecasted violence at the level of census block-groups and over a one-month moving time window. Inputs to a Random Forest model included historical crime records from the police department, demographic data from the US Census Bureau, and administrative data on licensed businesses. Among 279 block groups, a model utilizing all data sources was found to prospectively improve the identification of the top 5% most violent block-group months (positive predictive value = 52.1%; negative predictive value = 97.5%; sensitivity = 43.4%; specificity = 98.2%). Predictive modelling with simple inputs can help communities more efficiently focus violence prevention resources geographically.

Reverse Osmosis Processing of Organic Model Compounds and Fermentation Broths

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-04-01

AFRL-ML-TY-TP-2007-4545 POSTPRINT REVERSE OSMOSIS PROCESSING OF ORGANIC MODEL COMPOUNDS AND FERMENTATION BROTHS Robert Diltz...TELEPHONE NUMBER (Include area code) Bioresource Technology 98 (2007) 686–695Reverse osmosis processing of organic model compounds and fermentation broths...December 2005; accepted 31 January 2006 Available online 4 April 2006Abstract Post-treatment of an anaerobic fermentation broth was evaluated using a 150

A Review of Progress: Model Secondary School for the Deaf; The First Five Years (1970-1975). Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Model Secondary School for the Deaf, Washington, DC.

Presented is the report of a review panel made up of educators, deaf persons, and parents of deaf children on the first five years of the Model Secondary School for the Deaf operated by Gallaudet College. Sections of the report include observations and recommendations in the following areas: the school's mission; the concept of model; the…

High Frequency Acoustic Reflection and Transmission in Ocean Sediments

DTIC Science & Technology

2003-09-30

Development of a physical model of high-frequency acoustic interaction with the ocean floor, including penetration through and reflection from smooth and...experiments and additional laboratory measurements in the ARL:UT sand tank, an improved model of sediment acoustics will be developed that is...distinct areas of concentration: development of a broadband the oretical model to describe the acoustic interaction with the ocean floor in littoral

Mapping migratory flyways in Asia using dynamic Brownian bridge movement models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Palm, E.C.; Newman, S.H.; Prosser, Diann J.; Xiao, Xiangming; Luo, Ze; Batbayar, Nyambayar; Balachandran, Sivananinthaperumal; Takekawa, John Y.

2015-01-01

The dynamic Brownian bridge movement model improves our understanding of flyways by estimating relative use of regions in the flyway while providing detailed, quantitative information on migration timing and population connectivity including uncertainty between locations. This model effectively quantifies the relative importance of different migration corridors and stopover sites and may help prioritize specific areas in flyways for conservation of waterbird populations.

Low Energy Nuclear Structure Modeling: Can It Be Improved?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stone, Jirina R.

Since the discovery of the atomic nucleus in 1911 generations of physicists have devoted enormous effort to understand low energy nuclear structure. Properties of nuclei in their ground state, including mass, binding energy and shape, provide vital input to many areas of sub-atomic physics as well as astrophysics and cosmology. Low energy excited states are equally important for understanding nuclear dynamics. Yet, no consensus exists as to what is the best path to a theory which would not only consistently reproduce a wide variety of experimental data but also have enough predictive power to yield credible predictions in areas where data are still missing. In this contribution some of the main obstacles preventing building such a theory are discussed. These include modification of the free nucleon-nucleon force in the nuclear environment and effects of the sub-nucleon (quark) structure of the nucleon. Selected classes of nuclear models, mean-field, shell and ab-initio models are briefly outlined. Finally, suggestions are made for, at least partial, progress that can be achieved with the quark-meson coupling model, as reported in recent publication [1].