The 2006 Cape Canaveral Air Force Station Range Reference Atmosphere Model Validation Study and Sensitivity Analysis to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Space Shuttle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Decker, Ryan; Burns, Lee; Merry, Carl; Harrington, Brian

2008-01-01

NASA's Space Shuttle utilizes atmospheric thermodynamic properties to evaluate structural dynamics and vehicle flight performance impacts by the atmosphere during ascent. Statistical characteristics of atmospheric thermodynamic properties at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) used in Space. Shuttle Vehicle assessments are contained in the Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) Range Reference Atmosphere (RRA) Database. Database contains tabulations for monthly and annual means (mu), standard deviations (sigma) and skewness of wind and thermodynamic variables. Wind, Thermodynamic, Humidity and Hydrostatic parameters 1 km resolution interval from 0-30 km 2 km resolution interval 30-70 km Multiple revisions of the CCAFS RRA database have been developed since initial RRA published in 1963. 1971, 1983, 2006 Space Shuttle program utilized 1983 version for use in deriving "hot" and "cold" atmospheres, atmospheric density dispersions for use in vehicle certification analyses and selection of atmospheric thermodynamic profiles for use in vehicle ascent design and certification analyses. During STS-114 launch preparations in July 2005 atmospheric density observations between 50-80 kft exceeded density limits used for aerodynamic ascent heating constraints in vehicle certification analyses. Mission specific analyses were conducted and concluded that the density bias resulted in small changes to heating rates and integrated heat loading on the vehicle. In 2001, the Air Force Combat Climatology Center began developing an updated RRA for CCAFS.

High-resolution surface analysis for extended-range downscaling with limited-area atmospheric models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Separovic, Leo; Husain, Syed Zahid; Yu, Wei; Fernig, David

2014-12-01

High-resolution limited-area model (LAM) simulations are frequently employed to downscale coarse-resolution objective analyses over a specified area of the globe using high-resolution computational grids. When LAMs are integrated over extended time frames, from months to years, they are prone to deviations in land surface variables that can be harmful to the quality of the simulated near-surface fields. Nudging of the prognostic surface fields toward a reference-gridded data set is therefore devised in order to prevent the atmospheric model from diverging from the expected values. This paper presents a method to generate high-resolution analyses of land-surface variables, such as surface canopy temperature, soil moisture, and snow conditions, to be used for the relaxation of lower boundary conditions in extended-range LAM simulations. The proposed method is based on performing offline simulations with an external surface model, forced with the near-surface meteorological fields derived from short-range forecast, operational analyses, and observed temperatures and humidity. Results show that the outputs of the surface model obtained in the present study have potential to improve the near-surface atmospheric fields in extended-range LAM integrations.

Atmospheric cloud physics thermal systems analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1977-01-01

Engineering analyses performed on the Atmospheric Cloud Physics (ACPL) Science Simulator expansion chamber and associated thermal control/conditioning system are reported. Analyses were made to develop a verified thermal model and to perform parametric thermal investigations to evaluate systems performance characteristics. Thermal network representations of solid components and the complete fluid conditioning system were solved simultaneously using the Systems Improved Numerical Differencing Analyzer (SINDA) computer program.

GRAM Series of Atmospheric Models for Aeroentry and Aeroassist

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Duvall, Aleta; Justus, C. G.; Keller, Vernon W.

2005-01-01

The eight destinations in the Solar System with sufficient atmosphere for either aeroentry or aeroassist, including aerocapture, are: Venus, Earth, Mars, Jupiter, Saturn; Uranus. and Neptune, and Saturn's moon Titan. Engineering-level atmospheric models for four of these (Earth, Mars, Titan, and Neptune) have been developed for use in NASA's systems analysis studies of aerocapture applications in potential future missions. Work has recently commenced on development of a similar atmospheric model for Venus. This series of MSFC-sponsored models is identified as the Global Reference Atmosphere Model (GRAM) series. An important capability of all of the models in the GRAM series is their ability to simulate quasi-random perturbations for Monte Carlo analyses in developing guidance, navigation and control algorithms, and for thermal systems design. Example applications for Earth aeroentry and Mars aerocapture systems analysis studies are presented and illustrated. Current and planned updates to the Earth and Mars atmospheric models, in support of NASA's new exploration vision, are also presented.

Models of Mars' atmosphere (1974)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1974-01-01

Atmospheric models for support of design and mission planning of space vehicles that are to orbit the planet Mars, enter its atmosphere, or land on the surface are presented. Quantitative data for the Martian atmosphere were obtained from Earth-base observations and from spacecraft that have orbited Mars or passed within several planetary radii. These data were used in conjunction with existing theories of planetary atmospheres to predict other characteristics of the Martian atmosphere. Earth-based observations provided information on the composition, temperature, and optical properties of Mars with rather coarse spatial resolution, whereas spacecraft measurements yielded data on composition, temperature, pressure, density, and atmospheric structure with moderately good spatial resolution. The models provide the temperature, pressure, and density profiles required to perform basic aerodynamic analyses. The profiles are supplemented by computed values of viscosity, specific heat, and speed of sound.

Numerical simulation of large-scale ocean-atmosphere coupling and the ocean's role in climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gates, W. L.

1983-01-01

The problem of reducing model generated sigma coordinate data to pressure levels is considered. A mass consistent scheme for performing budget analyses is proposed, wherein variables interpolated to a given pressure level are weighted according to the mass between a nominal pressure level above and either a nominal pressure level below or the Earth's surface, whichever is closer. The method is applied to the atmospheric energy cycle as simulated by the OSU two level atmospheric general circulation model. The results are more realistic than sigma coordinate analyses with respect to eddy decomposition, and are in agreement with the sigma coordinate evaluation of the numerical energy sink. Comparison with less sophisticated budget schemes indicates superiority locally, but not globally.

Engineering-Level Model Atmospheres for Titan and Neptune

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Justus, C. G.; Duvall, Aleta; Johnson, D. L.

2003-01-01

Engineering-level atmospheric models for Titan and Neptune have been developed for use in NASA s systems analysis studies of aerocapture applications in missions to the outer planets. Analogous to highly successful Global Reference Atmospheric Models for Earth (GRAM, Justus et al., 2000) and Mars (Mars-GRAM, Justus and Johnson, 2001, Justus et al., 2002) the new models are called Titan-GRAM and Neptune-GRAM. Like GRAM and Mars-GRAM, an important feature of Titan-GRAM and Neptune-GRAM is their ability to simulate quasi-random perturbations for Monte- Carlo analyses in developing guidance, navigation and control algorithms, and for thermal systems design.

An Atmospheric Guidance Algorithm Testbed for the Mars Surveyor Program 2001 Orbiter and Lander

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Striepe, Scott A.; Queen, Eric M.; Powell, Richard W.; Braun, Robert D.; Cheatwood, F. McNeil; Aguirre, John T.; Sachi, Laura A.; Lyons, Daniel T.

1998-01-01

An Atmospheric Flight Team was formed by the Mars Surveyor Program '01 mission office to develop aerocapture and precision landing testbed simulations and candidate guidance algorithms. Three- and six-degree-of-freedom Mars atmospheric flight simulations have been developed for testing, evaluation, and analysis of candidate guidance algorithms for the Mars Surveyor Program 2001 Orbiter and Lander. These simulations are built around the Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories. Subroutines were supplied by Atmospheric Flight Team members for modeling the Mars atmosphere, spacecraft control system, aeroshell aerodynamic characteristics, and other Mars 2001 mission specific models. This paper describes these models and their perturbations applied during Monte Carlo analyses to develop, test, and characterize candidate guidance algorithms.

Ensemble Simulations with Coupled Atmospheric Dynamic and Dispersion Models: Illustrating Uncertainties in Dosage Simulations.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Warner, Thomas T.; Sheu, Rong-Shyang; Bowers, James F.; Sykes, R. Ian; Dodd, Gregory C.; Henn, Douglas S.

2002-05-01

Ensemble simulations made using a coupled atmospheric dynamic model and a probabilistic Lagrangian puff dispersion model were employed in a forensic analysis of the transport and dispersion of a toxic gas that may have been released near Al Muthanna, Iraq, during the Gulf War. The ensemble study had two objectives, the first of which was to determine the sensitivity of the calculated dosage fields to the choices that must be made about the configuration of the atmospheric dynamic model. In this test, various choices were used for model physics representations and for the large-scale analyses that were used to construct the model initial and boundary conditions. The second study objective was to examine the dispersion model's ability to use ensemble inputs to predict dosage probability distributions. Here, the dispersion model was used with the ensemble mean fields from the individual atmospheric dynamic model runs, including the variability in the individual wind fields, to generate dosage probabilities. These are compared with the explicit dosage probabilities derived from the individual runs of the coupled modeling system. The results demonstrate that the specific choices made about the dynamic-model configuration and the large-scale analyses can have a large impact on the simulated dosages. For example, the area near the source that is exposed to a selected dosage threshold varies by up to a factor of 4 among members of the ensemble. The agreement between the explicit and ensemble dosage probabilities is relatively good for both low and high dosage levels. Although only one ensemble was considered in this study, the encouraging results suggest that a probabilistic dispersion model may be of value in quantifying the effects of uncertainties in a dynamic-model ensemble on dispersion model predictions of atmospheric transport and dispersion.

Current Status and Challenges of Atmospheric Data Assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Atlas, R. M.; Gelaro, R.

2016-12-01

The issues of modern atmospheric data assimilation are fairly simple to comprehend but difficult to address, involving the combination of literally billions of model variables and tens of millions of observations daily. In addition to traditional meteorological variables such as wind, temperature pressure and humidity, model state vectors are being expanded to include explicit representation of precipitation, clouds, aerosols and atmospheric trace gases. At the same time, model resolutions are approaching single-kilometer scales globally and new observation types have error characteristics that are increasingly non-Gaussian. This talk describes the current status and challenges of atmospheric data assimilation, including an overview of current methodologies, the difficulty of estimating error statistics, and progress toward coupled earth system analyses.

Atmospheric Dispersal and Dispostion of Tephra From a Potential Volcanic Eruption at Yucca Mountain, Nevada

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

G. Keating; W.Statham

2004-02-12

The purpose of this model report is to provide documentation of the conceptual and mathematical model (ASHPLUME) for atmospheric dispersal and subsequent deposition of ash on the land surface from a potential volcanic eruption at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. This report also documents the ash (tephra) redistribution conceptual model. The ASHPLUME conceptual model accounts for incorporation and entrainment of waste fuel particles associated with a hypothetical volcanic eruption through the Yucca Mountain repository and downwind transport of contaminated tephra. The ASHPLUME mathematical model describes the conceptual model in mathematical terms to allow for prediction of radioactive waste/ash deposition on the groundmore » surface given that the hypothetical eruptive event occurs. This model report also describes the conceptual model for tephra redistribution from a basaltic cinder cone. Sensitivity analyses and model validation activities for the ash dispersal and redistribution models are also presented. Analyses documented in this model report will improve and clarify the previous documentation of the ASHPLUME mathematical model and its application to the Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the License Application (TSPA-LA) igneous scenarios. This model report also documents the redistribution model product outputs based on analyses to support the conceptual model.« less

Wake Numerical Simulation Based on the Park-Gauss Model and Considering Atmospheric Stability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Xiangsheng; Zhao, Ning; Tian, Linlin; Zhu, Jun

2016-06-01

In this paper, a new Park-Gauss model based on the assumption of the Park model and the Eddy-viscosity model is investigated to conduct the wake numerical simulation for solving a single wind turbine problem. The initial wake radius has been modified to improve the model’s numerical accuracy. Then the impact of the atmospheric stability based on the Park-Gauss model has been studied in the wake region. By the comparisons and the analyses of the test results, it turns out that the new Park-Gauss model could achieve better effects of the wind velocity simulation in the wake region. The wind velocity in the wake region recovers quickly under the unstable atmospheric condition provided the wind velocity is closest to the test result, and recovers slowly under stable atmospheric condition in case of the wind velocity is lower than the test result. Meanwhile, the wind velocity recovery falls in between the unstable and stable neutral atmospheric conditions.

Analysis of the August and November dynamical structures in the MLT region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gusev, O.; Grossmann, K.-U.; Schmidt, H.

The inversion of the infrared limb radiance measurements made by {CR}yogenic {I}nfrared {S}pectrometers and {T}elescopes for the {A}tmosphere (CRISTA) satellite experiment provided a global dataset of pressures, temperatures and atmospheric gas number densities for November 1994 and August 1997 in the altitude range 7-180 km. The {HAM}burg {MO}del of the {N}eutral and {I}onized {A}tmosphere (HAMMONIA) is a general circulation and chemistry model covering the atmosphere from the Earth's surface up to about 250 km. To simulate the conditions found during both CRISTA time periods a special HAMMONIA run was performed. We discuss the MLT dynamical parameters found by analysing the measured and modelled data, their similarities and differences.

Atmospheric model development in support of SEASAT. Volume 2: Analysis models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Langland, R. A.

1977-01-01

As part of the SEASAT program of NASA, two sets of analysis programs were developed for the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. One set of programs produce 63 x 63 horizontal mesh analyses on a polar stereographic grid. The other set produces 187 x 187 third mesh analyses. The parameters analyzed include sea surface temperature, sea level pressure and twelve levels of upper air temperature, height and wind analyses. The analysis output is used to initialize the primitive equation forecast models.

New directions: Atmospheric chemical mechanisms for the future

EPA Science Inventory

The chemical reaction scheme or mechanism used to represent atmospheric chemical reactions is at the heart of each air quality model used in research and policy applications to predict and analyse the complex air pollutants: ozone, air toxics and PM2.5. This is necessarily only a...

Advanced corrections for InSAR using GPS and numerical weather models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foster, J. H.; Cossu, F.; Amelung, F.; Businger, S.; Cherubini, T.

2016-12-01

The complex spatial and temporal changes in the atmospheric propagation delay of the radar signal remain the single biggest factor limiting Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar's (InSAR) potential for hazard monitoring and mitigation. A new generation of InSAR systems is being built and launched, and optimizing the science and hazard applications of these systems requires advanced methodologies to mitigate tropospheric noise. We present preliminary results from an investigation into the application of GPS and numerical weather models for generating tropospheric correction fields. We use the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to generate a 900 m spatial resolution atmospheric model covering the Big Island of Hawaii and an even higher, 300 m resolution grid over Mauna Loa and Kilauea volcanoes. By comparing a range of approaches, from the simplest, using reanalyses based on typically available meteorological observations, through to the "kitchen-sink" approach of assimilating all relevant data sets into our custom analyses, we examine the impact of the additional data sets on the atmospheric models and their effectiveness in correcting InSAR data. We focus particularly on the assimilation of information from the more than 60 GPS sites in the island. We ingest zenith tropospheric delay estimates from these sites directly into the WRF analyses, and also perform double-difference tomography using the phase residuals from the GPS processing to robustly incorporate information on atmospheric heterogeneity from the GPS data into the models. We assess our performance through comparisons of our atmospheric models with external observations not ingested into the model, and through the effectiveness of the derived phase screens in reducing InSAR variance. This work will produce best-practice recommendations for the use of weather models for InSAR correction, and inform efforts to design a global strategy for the NISAR mission, for both low-latency and definitive atmospheric correction products.

Atmospheric effects on cluster analyses. [for remote sensing application

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kiang, R. K.

1979-01-01

Ground reflected radiance, from which information is extracted through techniques of cluster analyses for remote sensing application, is altered by the atmosphere when it reaches the satellite. Therefore it is essential to understand the effects of the atmosphere on Landsat measurements, cluster characteristics and analysis accuracy. A doubling model is employed to compute the effective reflectivity, observed from the satellite, as a function of ground reflectivity, solar zenith angle and aerosol optical thickness for standard atmosphere. The relation between the effective reflectivity and ground reflectivity is approximately linear. It is shown that for a horizontally homogeneous atmosphere, the classification statistics from a maximum likelihood classifier remains unchanged under these transforms. If inhomogeneity is present, the divergence between clusters is reduced, and correlation between spectral bands increases. Radiance reflected by the background area surrounding the target may also reach the satellite. The influence of background reflectivity on effective reflectivity is discussed.

Atmospheric Transmission Modeling: Proposed Aerosol Methodology with Application to the Grafenwoehr Atmospheric Optics Data Base

DTIC Science & Technology

1976-12-01

ATMOSPHERIC OPTICS DATA BASE Robert E. Roberts December 1976 Ott 𔃾 a IDA INSTITUTE FOR DEFENSE ANALYSES 𔃾 SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY DIVISION 400 Army-Navy...distribu- tions, including three haze models and three cloud models, are shown in Fig. 2 for 0.7 pim and 10 um radiation. As one proceeds from the various...7 10 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.8 0.9 1.0 TRANSMISSION (8. 1-12.0 MICRONS) F.3’IGURE A-i1. Transmission in the 3.4-4.1 pim and 0.8-1.1 umn Bands

An ensemble Kalman filter with a high-resolution atmosphere-ocean coupled model for tropical cyclone forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kunii, M.; Ito, K.; Wada, A.

2015-12-01

An ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) using a regional mesoscale atmosphere-ocean coupled model was developed to represent the uncertainties of sea surface temperature (SST) in ensemble data assimilation strategies. The system was evaluated through data assimilation cycle experiments over a one-month period from July to August 2014, during which a tropical cyclone as well as severe rainfall events occurred. The results showed that the data assimilation cycle with the coupled model could reproduce SST distributions realistically even without updating SST and salinity during the data assimilation cycle. Therefore, atmospheric variables and radiation applied as a forcing to ocean models can control oceanic variables to some extent in the current data assimilation configuration. However, investigations of the forecast error covariance estimated in EnKF revealed that the correlation between atmospheric and oceanic variables could possibly lead to less flow-dependent error covariance for atmospheric variables owing to the difference in the time scales between atmospheric and oceanic variables. A verification of the analyses showed positive impacts of applying the ocean model to EnKF on precipitation forecasts. The use of EnKF with the coupled model system captured intensity changes of a tropical cyclone better than it did with an uncoupled atmosphere model, even though the impact on the track forecast was negligibly small.

Description and verification of a U.S. Naval Research Lab's loosely coupled data assimilation system for the Navy's Earth System Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barton, N. P.; Metzger, E. J.; Smedstad, O. M.; Ruston, B. C.; Wallcraft, A. J.; Whitcomb, T.; Ridout, J. A.; Zamudio, L.; Posey, P.; Reynolds, C. A.; Richman, J. G.; Phelps, M.

2017-12-01

The Naval Research Laboratory is developing an Earth System Model (NESM) to provide global environmental information to meet Navy and Department of Defense (DoD) operations and planning needs from the upper atmosphere to under the sea. This system consists of a global atmosphere, ocean, ice, wave, and land prediction models and the individual models include: atmosphere - NAVy Global Environmental Model (NAVGEM); ocean - HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM); sea ice - Community Ice CodE (CICE); WAVEWATCH III™; and land - NAVGEM Land Surface Model (LSM). Data assimilation is currently loosely coupled between the atmosphere component using a 6-hour update cycle in the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) Atmospheric Variational Data Assimilation System - Accelerated Representer (NAVDAS-AR) and the ocean/ice components using a 24-hour update cycle in the Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation (NCODA) with 3 hours of incremental updating. This presentation will describe the US Navy's coupled forecast model, the loosely coupled data assimilation, and compare results against stand-alone atmosphere and ocean/ice models. In particular, we will focus on the unique aspects of this modeling system, which includes an eddy resolving ocean model and challenges associated with different update-windows and solvers for the data assimilation in the atmosphere and ocean. Results will focus on typical operational diagnostics for atmosphere, ocean, and ice analyses including 500 hPa atmospheric height anomalies, low-level winds, temperature/salinity ocean depth profiles, ocean acoustical proxies, sea ice edge, and sea ice drift. Overall, the global coupled system is performing with comparable skill to the stand-alone systems.

The ASSET intercomparison of stratosphere and lower mesosphere humidity analyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thornton, H. E.; Jackson, D. R.; Bekki, S.; Bormann, N.; Errera, Q.; Geer, A. J.; Lahoz, W. A.; Rharmili, S.

2009-02-01

This paper presents results from the first detailed intercomparison of stratosphere-lower mesosphere water vapour analyses; it builds on earlier results from the EU funded framework V "Assimilation of ENVISAT Data" (ASSET) project. Stratospheric water vapour plays an important role in many key atmospheric processes and therefore an improved understanding of its daily variability is desirable. With the availability of high resolution, good quality Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) water vapour profiles, the ability of four different atmospheric models to assimilate these data is tested. MIPAS data have been assimilated over September 2003 into the models of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the Belgian Institute for Space and Aeronomy (BIRA-IASB), the French Service d'Aéronomie (SA-IPSL) and the UK Met Office. The resultant middle atmosphere humidity analyses are compared against independent satellite data from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE), the Polar Ozone and Aerosol Measurement (POAM III) and the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE II). The MIPAS water vapour profiles are generally well assimilated in the ECMWF, BIRA-IASB and SA systems, producing stratosphere-mesosphere water vapour fields where the main features compare favourably with the independent observations. However, the models are less capable of assimilating the MIPAS data where water vapour values are locally extreme or in regions of strong humidity gradients, such as the southern hemisphere lower stratosphere polar vortex. Differences in the analyses can be attributed to the choice of humidity control variable, how the background error covariance matrix is generated, the model resolution and its complexity, the degree of quality control of the observations and the use of observations near the model boundaries. Due to the poor performance of the Met Office analyses the results are not included in the intercomparison, but are discussed separately. The Met Office results highlight the pitfalls in humidity assimilation, and provide lessons that should be learnt by developers of stratospheric humidity assimilation systems. In particular, they underline the importance of the background error covariances in generating a realistic troposphere to mesosphere water vapour analysis.

Aerosol Measurements in the Atmospheric Surface Layer at L'Aquila, Italy: Focus on Biogenic Primary Particles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pitari, Giovanni; Coppari, Eleonora; De Luca, Natalia; Di Carlo, Piero; Pace, Loretta

2014-09-01

Two year measurements of aerosol concentration and size distribution (0.25 μm < d < 30 μm) in the atmospheric surface layer, collected in L'Aquila (Italy) with an optical particle counter, are reported and analysed for the different modes of the particle size distribution. A different seasonal behaviour is shown for fine mode aerosols (largely produced by anthropogenic combustion), coarse mode and large-sized aerosols, whose abundance is regulated not only by anthropogenic local production, but also by remote natural sources (via large scale atmospheric transport) and by local sources of primary biogenic aerosols. The observed total abundance of large particles with diameter larger than 10 μm is compared with a statistical counting of primary biogenic particles, made with an independent technique. Results of these two observational approaches are analysed and compared to each other, with the help of a box model driven by observed meteorological parameters and validated with measurements of fine and coarse mode aerosols and of an atmospheric primary pollutant of anthropogenic origin (NOx). Except in winter months, primary biogenic particles in the L'Aquila measurement site are shown to dominate the atmospheric boundary layer population of large aerosol particles with diameter larger than 10 μm (about 80 % of the total during summer months), with a pronounced seasonal cycle, contrary to fine mode aerosols of anthropogenic origin. In order to explain these findings, the main mechanisms controlling the abundance and variability of particulate matter tracers in the atmospheric surface layer are analysed with the numerical box-model.

Aerocapture Performance Analysis for a Neptune-Triton Exploration Mission

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Starr, Brett R.; Westhelle, Carlos H.; Masciarelli, James P.

2004-01-01

A systems analysis has been conducted for a Neptune-Triton Exploration Mission in which aerocapture is used to capture a spacecraft at Neptune. Aerocapture uses aerodynamic drag instead of propulsion to decelerate from the interplanetary approach trajectory to a captured orbit during a single pass through the atmosphere. After capture, propulsion is used to move the spacecraft from the initial captured orbit to the desired science orbit. A preliminary assessment identified that a spacecraft with a lift to drag ratio of 0.8 was required for aerocapture. Performance analyses of the 0.8 L/D vehicle were performed using a high fidelity flight simulation within a Monte Carlo executive to determine mission success statistics. The simulation was the Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories (POST) modified to include Neptune specific atmospheric and planet models, spacecraft aerodynamic characteristics, and interplanetary trajectory models. To these were added autonomous guidance and pseudo flight controller models. The Monte Carlo analyses incorporated approach trajectory delivery errors, aerodynamic characteristics uncertainties, and atmospheric density variations. Monte Carlo analyses were performed for a reference set of uncertainties and sets of uncertainties modified to produce increased and reduced atmospheric variability. For the reference uncertainties, the 0.8 L/D flatbottom ellipsled vehicle achieves 100% successful capture and has a 99.87 probability of attaining the science orbit with a 360 m/s V budget for apoapsis and periapsis adjustment. Monte Carlo analyses were also performed for a guidance system that modulates both bank angle and angle of attack with the reference set of uncertainties. An alpha and bank modulation guidance system reduces the 99.87 percentile DELTA V 173 m/s (48%) to 187 m/s for the reference set of uncertainties.

Deposition of Atmospheric Nitrogen to Coastal Ecosystems (DANCE): A study in seasonally oligotrophic waters off the eastern U.S.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Najjar, R.; Sedwick, P.; Mulholland, M. R.; Friedrichs, M. A.; Thompson, A. M.; Martins, D. K.; Bernhardt, P. W.; Herrmann, M.; Price, L. M.; Sohst, B. M.; Sookhdeo, C.; St-Laurent, P.; Widner, B.

2016-02-01

We carried out a program of process-oriented field measurements and biogeochemical modeling in oligotrophic coastal waters off the eastern U.S.—a region that currently receives high levels of atmospheric nitrogen deposition (AND)—to test whether wet AND events stimulate primary productivity and accumulation of algal biomass in coastal waters following summer storms. Our results from shipboard incubations and numerical modeling indicate that nitrogen in rain stimulated primary production in these waters during the summer of 2014. We will present isotopic, tracer, and modeling analyses that determine the relative roles of vertical mixing and atmospheric deposition during the wet AND events in two anticyclonic eddies north and south of the Gulf Stream. 3-D atmospheric and oceanic modeling results will also be presented, which allow the understanding gained during the summer 2014 field campaign to be applied to quantifying the role of atmospheric deposition throughout coastal waters of the eastern US over many years.

Soil Moisture Controls on Rainfall and Temperature Variability: A Modeler Searches Through Observational Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koster, Randal

2010-01-01

The degree to which atmospheric processes respond to variations in soil moisture - a potentially important but largely untapped element of subseasonal to seasonal prediction - can be determined easily and directly for an atmospheric model but cannot be determined directly for nature through an analysis of observations. In atmospheric models) directions of causality can be artificially manipulated; we can avoid difficulties associated with the fact that atmospheric variations have a much larger impact on land state variations than vice-versa. In nature) on the other hand) the dominant direction of causality (the atmosphere forcing the ground) cannot be artificially "turned off") and the statistics associated with this dominant direction overwhelm those of the feedback signal. Observational data) however) do allow a number of indirect measures of landatmosphere feedback. This seminar reports on a series of joint analyses of observational and model data designed to illuminate the degree of land-atmosphere feedback present in the real world. The indirect measures do in fact suggest that feedback in nature, though small) is significant - enough to warrant the development of realistic land initialization strategies for subseasonal and seasonal forecasts.

Use of the 4D-Global Reference Atmosphere Model (GRAM) for space shuttle descent design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mccarty, S. M.

1987-01-01

The method of using the Global Reference Atmosphere Model (GRAM) mean and dispersed atmospheres to study skipout/overshoot requirements, to characterize mean and worst case vehicle temperatures, study control requirements, and verify design was discussed. Landing sites in these analyses range from 65 N to 30 S, while orbit inclinations vary from 20 deg to 98 deg. The primary concern was that they cannot use as small vertical steps in the reentry calculation as desired because the model predicts anomalously large density shear rates for very small vertical step sizes. The winds predicted by the model are not satisfactory. This is probably because they are geostrophic winds and because the model has an error in the computation of winds in the equatorial regions.

Mesoscale research activities with the LAMPS model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kalb, M. W.

1985-01-01

Researchers achieved full implementation of the LAMPS mesoscale model on the Atmospheric Sciences Division computer and derived balanced and real wind initial states for three case studies: March 6, April 24, April 26, 1982. Numerical simulations were performed for three separate studies: (1) a satellite moisture data impact study using Vertical Atmospheric Sounder (VAS) precipitable water as a constraint on model initial state moisture analyses; (2) an evaluation of mesoscale model precipitation simulation accuracy with and without convective parameterization; and (3) the sensitivity of model precipitation to mesoscale detail of moisture and vertical motion in an initial state.

Momentum and Energy Assessments with NASA and Other Model and Data Assimilation Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Salstein, David; Nelson, Peter; Hu, Wen-Jie

2001-01-01

Support from the NASA Global Modeling and Analysis Program has been used for the following research objectives: 1) the study of aspects of dynamics of torques and angular momentum based on the Goddard GEOS and other analyses; 2) the study of how models participating in the second Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP-2) have success in simulating certain large-scale quantities; 3) the study of the energetics and momentum cycle from certain runs from the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres and other models as well; 4) the assessment of changes in diabatic heating and related energetics in the community climate model (CCM3); 5) the analysis of modes of climate of the atmosphere, especially the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations. Further information on these endeavors will be provided in published works and the Final Report of the project.

CO concentration in the upper stratosphere and mesosphere of Titan from VIMS dayside limb observations at 4.7 μm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fabiano, F.; López Puertas, M.; Adriani, A.; Moriconi, M. L.; D'Aversa, E.; Funke, B.; López-Valverde, M. A.; Ridolfi, M.; Dinelli, B. M.

2017-09-01

During the last 30 years, many works have focused on the determination of the CO abundance in Titan's atmosphere, but no measurement above 300 km has been done yet due to the faint signal of CO. Nevertheless, such measurements are particularly awaited as a confirmation of photochemical models predictions that CO is uniformly mixed in the whole atmosphere. Moreover, since CO is the main atmospheric reservoir of oxygen, its actual abundance has implications on the origins of Titan's atmosphere. In this work, we analyse a set of Cassini VIMS daytime limb observations of Titan at 4.7 μm, which is dominated by solar-pumped non-LTE (non-local thermodynamic equilibrium) emission of CO ro-vibrational bands. In order to retrieve the CO abundance from these observations, we developed a non-LTE model for the CO vibrational levels. The retrieval of the CO concentration is performed following a bayesian approach and using the calculated non-LTE populations. The data set analysed consists of 47 limb scanning sequences -about 1500 spectra- acquired by VIMS in 2006 and 2007. CO relative abundance profiles from 200 to 500 km are obtained, for each set analysed. The mean result shows no significant variations with altitude and is consistent with the prediction of a well-mixed vertical profile. However, if compared with Earth-based mm measurements, a small vertical gradient is plausible.

The ASSET intercomparison of stratosphere and lower mesosphere humidity analyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thornton, H. E.; Jackson, D. R.; Bekki, S.; Bormann, N.; Errera, Q.; Geer, A. J.; Lahoz, W. A.; Rharmili, S.

2008-07-01

This paper presents results from the first detailed intercomparison of stratosphere-lower mesosphere water vapour analyses; it builds on earlier results from the "Assimilation of ENVISAT Data" (ASSET) project. With the availability of high resolution, good quality Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) water vapour profiles, the ability of four different atmospheric models to assimilate these data is tested. MIPAS data have been assimilated over September 2003 into the models of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the Belgian Institute for Space and Aeronomy (BIRA-IASB), the French Service d'Aéronomie (SA-IPSL) and the UK Met Office. The resultant middle atmosphere humidity analyses are compared against independent satellite data from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE), the Polar Ozone and Aerosol Measurement (POAM III) and the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE II). The MIPAS water vapour profiles are generally well assimilated in the ECMWF, BIRA-IASB and SA systems, producing stratosphere-mesosphere water vapour fields where the main features compare favourably with the independent observations. However, the models are less capable of assimilating the MIPAS data where water vapour values are locally extreme or in regions of strong humidity gradients, such as the Southern Hemisphere lower stratosphere polar vortex. Differences in the analyses can be attributed to the choice of humidity control variable, how the background error covariance matrix is generated, the model resolution and its complexity, the degree of quality control of the observations and the use of observations near the model boundaries. Due to the poor performance of the Met Office analyses the results are not included in the intercomparison, but are discussed separately. The Met Office results highlight the pitfalls in humidity assimilation, and provide lessons that should be learnt by developers of stratospheric humidity assimilation systems. In particular, they underline the importance of the background error covariances in generating a realistic troposphere to mesosphere water vapour analysis.

An assessment of the carbon balance of arctic tundra: comparisons among observations, process models, and atmospheric inversions

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGuire, A.D.; Christensen, T.R.; Hayes, D.; Heroult, A.; Euskirchen, E.; Yi, Y.; Kimball, J.S.; Koven, C.; Lafleur, P.; Miller, P.A.; Oechel, W.; Peylin, P.; Williams, M.

2012-01-01

Although arctic tundra has been estimated to cover only 8% of the global land surface, the large and potentially labile carbon pools currently stored in tundra soils have the potential for large emissions of carbon (C) under a warming climate. These emissions as radiatively active greenhouse gases in the form of both CO2 and CH4 could amplify global warming. Given the potential sensitivity of these ecosystems to climate change and the expectation that the Arctic will experience appreciable warming over the next century, it is important to assess whether responses of C exchange in tundra regions are likely to enhance or mitigate warming. In this study we compared analyses of C exchange of Arctic tundra between 1990–1999 and 2000–2006 among observations, regional and global applications of process-based terrestrial biosphere models, and atmospheric inversion models. Syntheses of the compilation of flux observations and of inversion model results indicate that the annual exchange of CO2 between arctic tundra and the atmosphere has large uncertainties that cannot be distinguished from neutral balance. The mean estimate from an ensemble of process-based model simulations suggests that arctic tundra acted as a sink for atmospheric CO2 in recent decades, but based on the uncertainty estimates it cannot be determined with confidence whether these ecosystems represent a weak or a strong sink. Tundra was 0.6 °C warmer in the 2000s compared to the 1990s. The central estimates of the observations, process-based models, and inversion models each identify stronger sinks in the 2000s compared with the 1990s. Similarly, the observations and the applications of regional process-based models suggest that CH4 emissions from arctic tundra have increased from the 1990s to 2000s. Based on our analyses of the estimates from observations, process-based models, and inversion models, we estimate that arctic tundra was a sink for atmospheric CO2 of 110 Tg C yr-1 (uncertainty between a sink of 291 Tg C yr-1 and a source of 80 Tg C yr-1) and a source of CH4 to the atmosphere of 19 Tg C yr-1 (uncertainty between sources of 8 and 29 Tg C yr-1). The suite of analyses conducted in this study indicate that it is clearly important to reduce uncertainties in the observations, process-based models, and inversions in order to better understand the degree to which Arctic tundra is influencing atmospheric CO2 and CH4 concentrations. The reduction of uncertainties can be accomplished through (1) the strategic placement of more CO2 and CH4 monitoring stations to reduce uncertainties in inversions, (2) improved observation networks of ground-based measurements of CO2 and CH4 exchange to understand exchange in response to disturbance and across gradients of hydrological variability, and (3) the effective transfer of information from enhanced observation networks into process-based models to improve the simulation of CO2 and CH4 exchange from arctic tundra to the atmosphere.

Atmospheric aerosol source identification and estimates of source contributions to air pollution in Dundee, UK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qin, Y.; Oduyemi, K.

Anthropogenic aerosol (PM 10) emission sources sampled at an air quality monitoring station in Dundee have been analysed. However, the information on local natural aerosol emission sources was unavailable. A method that combines receptor model and atmospheric dispersion model was used to identify aerosol sources and estimate source contributions to air pollution. The receptor model identified five sources. These are aged marine aerosol source with some chlorine replaced by sulphate, secondary aerosol source of ammonium sulphate, secondary aerosol source of ammonium nitrate, soil and construction dust source, and incinerator and fuel oil burning emission source. For the vehicle emission source, which has been comprehensively described in the atmospheric emission inventory but cannot be identified by the receptor model, an atmospheric dispersion model was used to estimate its contributions. In Dundee, a significant percentage, 67.5%, of the aerosol mass sampled at the study station could be attributed to the six sources named above.

Towards uncertainty estimates in global operational forecasts of trace gases in the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huijnen, V.; Bouarar, I.; Chabrillat, S. H.; Christophe, Y.; Thierno, D.; Karydis, V.; Marecal, V.; Pozzer, A.; Flemming, J.

2017-12-01

Operational atmospheric composition analyses and forecasts such as developed in the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) rely on modules describing emissions, chemical conversion, transport and removal processing, as well as data assimilation methods. The CAMS forecasts can be used to drive regional air quality models across the world. Critical analyses of uncertainties in any of these processes are continuously needed to advance the quality of such systems on a global scale, ranging from the surface up to the stratosphere. With regard to the atmospheric chemistry to describe the fate of trace gases, the operational system currently relies on a modified version of the CB05 chemistry scheme for the troposphere combined with the Cariolle scheme to describe stratospheric ozone, as integrated in ECMWF's Integrated Forecasting System (IFS). It is further constrained by assimilation of satellite observations of CO, O3 and NO2. As part of CAMS we have recently developed three fully independent schemes to describe the chemical conversion throughout the atmosphere. These parameterizations originate from parent model codes in MOZART, MOCAGE and a combination of TM5/BASCOE. In this contribution we evaluate the correspondence and elemental differences in the performance of the three schemes in an otherwise identical model configuration (excluding data-assimilation) against a large range of in-situ and satellite-based observations of ozone, CO, VOC's and chlorine-containing trace gases for both troposphere and stratosphere. This analysis aims to provide a measure of model uncertainty in the operational system for tracers that are not, or poorly, constrained by data assimilation. It aims also to provide guidance on the directions for further model improvement with regard to the chemical conversion module.

Research Review, 1983

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1984-01-01

The Global Modeling and Simulation Branch (GMSB) of the Laboratory for Atmospheric Sciences (GLAS) is engaged in general circulation modeling studies related to global atmospheric and oceanographic research. The research activities discussed are organized into two disciplines: Global Weather/Observing Systems and Climate/Ocean-Air Interactions. The Global Weather activities are grouped in four areas: (1) Analysis and Forecast Studies, (2) Satellite Observing Systems, (3) Analysis and Model Development, (4) Atmospheric Dynamics and Diagnostic Studies. The GLAS Analysis/Forecast/Retrieval System was applied to both FGGE and post FGGE periods. The resulting analyses have already been used in a large number of theoretical studies of atmospheric dynamics, forecast impact studies and development of new or improved algorithms for the utilization of satellite data. Ocean studies have focused on the analysis of long-term global sea surface temperature data, for use in the study of the response of the atmosphere to sea surface temperature anomalies. Climate research has concentrated on the simulation of global cloudiness, and on the sensitivities of the climate to sea surface temperature and ground wetness anomalies.

Carbon balance of the terrestrial biosphere in the twentieth century: analyses of CO2, climate and land use effects with four process-based ecosystem models

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGuire, A.D.; Sitch, S.; Clein, Joy S.; Dargaville, R.; Esser, G.; Foley, J.; Heimann, Martin; Joos, F.; Kaplan, J.; Kicklighter, D.W.; Meier, R.A.; Melillo, J.M.; Moore, B.; Prentice, I.C.; Ramankutty, N.; Reichenau, T.; Schloss, A.; Tian, H.; Williams, L.J.; Wittenberg, U.

2001-01-01

The concurrent effects of increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration, climate variability, and cropland establishment and abandonment on terrestrial carbon storage between 1920 and 1992 were assessed using a standard simulation protocol with four process-based terrestrial biosphere models. Over the long-term(1920–1992), the simulations yielded a time history of terrestrial uptake that is consistent (within the uncertainty) with a long-term analysis based on ice core and atmospheric CO2 data. Up to 1958, three of four analyses indicated a net release of carbon from terrestrial ecosystems to the atmosphere caused by cropland establishment. After 1958, all analyses indicate a net uptake of carbon by terrestrial ecosystems, primarily because of the physiological effects of rapidly rising atmospheric CO2. During the 1980s the simulations indicate that terrestrial ecosystems stored between 0.3 and 1.5 Pg C yr−1, which is within the uncertainty of analysis based on CO2 and O2 budgets. Three of the four models indicated (in accordance with O2 evidence) that the tropics were approximately neutral while a net sink existed in ecosystems north of the tropics. Although all of the models agree that the long-term effect of climate on carbon storage has been small relative to the effects of increasing atmospheric CO2 and land use, the models disagree as to whether climate variability and change in the twentieth century has promoted carbon storage or release. Simulated interannual variability from 1958 generally reproduced the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-scale variability in the atmospheric CO2 increase, but there were substantial differences in the magnitude of interannual variability simulated by the models. The analysis of the ability of the models to simulate the changing amplitude of the seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO2 suggested that the observed trend may be a consequence of CO2 effects, climate variability, land use changes, or a combination of these effects. The next steps for improving the process-based simulation of historical terrestrial carbon include (1) the transfer of insight gained from stand-level process studies to improve the sensitivity of simulated carbon storage responses to changes in CO2 and climate, (2) improvements in the data sets used to drive the models so that they incorporate the timing, extent, and types of major disturbances, (3) the enhancement of the models so that they consider major crop types and management schemes, (4) development of data sets that identify the spatial extent of major crop types and management schemes through time, and (5) the consideration of the effects of anthropogenic nitrogen deposition. The evaluation of the performance of the models in the context of a more complete consideration of the factors influencing historical terrestrial carbon dynamics is important for reducing uncertainties in representing the role of terrestrial ecosystems in future projections of the Earth system.

Improvement in the accuracy of back trajectories using WRF to identify pollen sources in southern Iberian Peninsula.

PubMed

Hernández-Ceballos, M A; Skjøth, C A; García-Mozo, H; Bolívar, J P; Galán, C

2014-12-01

Airborne pollen transport at micro-, meso-gamma and meso-beta scales must be studied by atmospheric models, having special relevance in complex terrain. In these cases, the accuracy of these models is mainly determined by the spatial resolution of the underlying meteorological dataset. This work examines how meteorological datasets determine the results obtained from atmospheric transport models used to describe pollen transport in the atmosphere. We investigate the effect of the spatial resolution when computing backward trajectories with the HYSPLIT model. We have used meteorological datasets from the WRF model with 27, 9 and 3 km resolutions and from the GDAS files with 1° resolution. This work allows characterizing atmospheric transport of Olea pollen in a region with complex flows. The results show that the complex terrain affects the trajectories and this effect varies with the different meteorological datasets. Overall, the change from GDAS to WRF-ARW inputs improves the analyses with the HYSPLIT model, thereby increasing the understanding the pollen episode. The results indicate that a spatial resolution of at least 9 km is needed to simulate atmospheric flows that are considerable affected by the relief of the landscape. The results suggest that the appropriate meteorological files should be considered when atmospheric models are used to characterize the atmospheric transport of pollen on micro-, meso-gamma and meso-beta scales. Furthermore, at these scales, the results are believed to be generally applicable for related areas such as the description of atmospheric transport of radionuclides or in the definition of nuclear-radioactivity emergency preparedness.

Improvement in the accuracy of back trajectories using WRF to identify pollen sources in southern Iberian Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hernández-Ceballos, M. A.; Skjøth, C. A.; García-Mozo, H.; Bolívar, J. P.; Galán, C.

2014-12-01

Airborne pollen transport at micro-, meso-gamma and meso-beta scales must be studied by atmospheric models, having special relevance in complex terrain. In these cases, the accuracy of these models is mainly determined by the spatial resolution of the underlying meteorological dataset. This work examines how meteorological datasets determine the results obtained from atmospheric transport models used to describe pollen transport in the atmosphere. We investigate the effect of the spatial resolution when computing backward trajectories with the HYSPLIT model. We have used meteorological datasets from the WRF model with 27, 9 and 3 km resolutions and from the GDAS files with 1 ° resolution. This work allows characterizing atmospheric transport of Olea pollen in a region with complex flows. The results show that the complex terrain affects the trajectories and this effect varies with the different meteorological datasets. Overall, the change from GDAS to WRF-ARW inputs improves the analyses with the HYSPLIT model, thereby increasing the understanding the pollen episode. The results indicate that a spatial resolution of at least 9 km is needed to simulate atmospheric flows that are considerable affected by the relief of the landscape. The results suggest that the appropriate meteorological files should be considered when atmospheric models are used to characterize the atmospheric transport of pollen on micro-, meso-gamma and meso-beta scales. Furthermore, at these scales, the results are believed to be generally applicable for related areas such as the description of atmospheric transport of radionuclides or in the definition of nuclear-radioactivity emergency preparedness.

Discriminating low frequency components from long range persistent fluctuations in daily atmospheric temperature variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lanfredi, M.; Simoniello, T.; Cuomo, V.; Macchiato, M.

2009-02-01

This study originated from recent results reported in literature, which support the existence of long-range (power-law) persistence in atmospheric temperature fluctuations on monthly and inter-annual scales. We investigated the results of Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) carried out on twenty-two historical daily time series recorded in Europe in order to evaluate the reliability of such findings in depth. More detailed inspections emphasized systematic deviations from power-law and high statistical confidence for functional form misspecification. Rigorous analyses did not support scale-free correlation as an operative concept for Climate modelling, as instead suggested in literature. In order to understand the physical implications of our results better, we designed a bivariate Markov process, parameterised on the basis of the atmospheric observational data by introducing a slow dummy variable. The time series generated by this model, analysed both in time and frequency domains, tallied with the real ones very well. They accounted for both the deceptive scaling found in literature and the correlation details enhanced by our analysis. Our results seem to evidence the presence of slow fluctuations from another climatic sub-system such as ocean, which inflates temperature variance up to several months. They advise more precise re-analyses of temperature time series before suggesting dynamical paradigms useful for Climate modelling and for the assessment of Climate Change.

Discriminating low frequency components from long range persistent fluctuations in daily atmospheric temperature variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lanfredi, M.; Simoniello, T.; Cuomo, V.; Macchiato, M.

2009-07-01

This study originated from recent results reported in literature, which support the existence of long-range (power-law) persistence in atmospheric temperature fluctuations on monthly and inter-annual scales. We investigated the results of Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) carried out on twenty-two historical daily time series recorded in Europe in order to evaluate the reliability of such findings in depth. More detailed inspections emphasized systematic deviations from power-law and high statistical confidence for functional form misspecification. Rigorous analyses did not support scale-free correlation as an operative concept for Climate modelling, as instead suggested in literature. In order to understand the physical implications of our results better, we designed a bivariate Markov process, parameterised on the basis of the atmospheric observational data by introducing a slow dummy variable. The time series generated by this model, analysed both in time and frequency domains, tallied with the real ones very well. They accounted for both the deceptive scaling found in literature and the correlation details enhanced by our analysis. Our results seem to evidence the presence of slow fluctuations from another climatic sub-system such as ocean, which inflates temperature variance up to several months. They advise more precise re-analyses of temperature time series before suggesting dynamical paradigms useful for Climate modelling and for the assessment of Climate Change.

Synthetic spectra of simulated terrestrial atmospheres containing possible biomarker gases.

PubMed

Schindler, T L; Kasting, J F

2000-05-01

NASA's proposed Terrestrial Planet Finder, a space-based interferometer, will eventually allow spectroscopic analyses of the atmospheres of extrasolar planets. Such analyses would provide information about the existence of life on these planets. One strategy in the search for life is to look for evidence of O3 (and hence O2) in a planet's atmosphere; another is to look for gases that might be present in an atmosphere analogous to that of the inhabited early Earth. In order to investigate these possibilities, we have calculated synthetic spectra for several hypothetical terrestrial-type atmospheres. The model atmospheres represent four different scenarios. The first two, representing inhabited terrestrial planets, are an Earth-like atmosphere containing variable amounts of oxygen and an early Earth-type atmosphere containing methane. In addition, two cases representing Mars-like and early Venus-like atmospheres were evaluated, to provide possible "false positive" spectra. The calculated spectra suggest that ozone could be detected by an instrument like Terrestrial Planet Finder if the O2 concentration in the planet's atmosphere is > or = 200 ppm, or 10(-3) times the present atmospheric level. Methane should be observable on an early-Earth type planet if it is present in concentrations of 100 ppm or more. Methane has both biogenic and abiogenic sources, but concentrations exceeding 1000 ppm, or 0.1% by volume, would be difficult to produce from abiogenic sources alone. High methane concentrations in a planet's atmosphere are therefore another potential indicator for extraterrestrial life.

Advanced development of atmospheric models. [SEASAT Program support

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kesel, P. G.; Langland, R. A.; Stephens, P. L.; Welleck, R. E.; Wolff, P. M.

1979-01-01

A set of atmospheric analysis and prediction models was developed in support of the SEASAT Program existing objective analysis models which utilize a 125x125 polar stereographic grid of the Northern Hemisphere, which were modified in order to incorporate and assess the impact of (real or simulated) satellite data in the analysis of a two-day meteorological scenario in January 1979. Program/procedural changes included: (1) a provision to utilize winds in the sea level pressure and multi-level height analyses (1000-100 MBS); (2) The capability to perform a pre-analysis at two control levels (1000 MBS and 250 MBS); (3) a greater degree of wind- and mass-field coupling, especially at these controls levels; (4) an improved facility to bogus the analyses based on results of the preanalysis; and (5) a provision to utilize (SIRS) satellite thickness values and cloud motion vectors in the multi-level height analysis.

STATUS AND PROGRESS IN PARTICULATE MATTER FORECASTING: INITIAL APPLICATION OF THE ETA- CMAQ FORECAST MODEL

EPA Science Inventory

This presentation reviews the status and progress in forecasting particulate matter distributions. The shortcomings in representation of particulate matter formation in current atmospheric chemistry/transport models are presented based on analyses and detailed comparisons with me...

The 2006 Cape Canaveral Air Force Station Range Reference Atmosphere Model Validation Study and Sensitivity Analysis to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Space Shuttle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Burns, Lee; Merry, Carl; Decker, Ryan; Harrington, Brian

2008-01-01

The 2006 Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) Range Reference Atmosphere (RRA) is a statistical model summarizing the wind and thermodynamic atmospheric variability from surface to 70 kin. Launches of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Space Shuttle from Kennedy Space Center utilize CCAFS RRA data to evaluate environmental constraints on various aspects of the vehicle during ascent. An update to the CCAFS RRA was recently completed. As part of the update, a validation study on the 2006 version was conducted as well as a comparison analysis of the 2006 version to the existing CCAFS RRA database version 1983. Assessments to the Space Shuttle vehicle ascent profile characteristics were performed to determine impacts of the updated model to the vehicle performance. Details on the model updates and the vehicle sensitivity analyses with the update model are presented.

Modelling the atmosphere of the carbon-rich Mira RU Virginis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rau, G.; Paladini, C.; Hron, J.; Aringer, B.; Groenewegen, M. A. T.; Nowotny, W.

2015-11-01

Context. We study the atmosphere of the carbon-rich Mira RU Vir using the mid-infrared high spatial resolution interferometric observations from VLTI/MIDI. Aims: The aim of this work is to analyse the atmosphere of the carbon-rich Mira RU Vir with hydrostatic and dynamic models, in this way deepening the knowledge of the dynamic processes at work in carbon-rich Miras. Methods: We compare spectro-photometric and interferometric measurements of this carbon-rich Mira AGB star with the predictions of different kinds of modelling approaches (hydrostatic model atmospheres plus MOD-More Of Dusty, self-consistent dynamic model atmospheres). A geometric model fitting tool is used for a first interpretation of the interferometric data. Results: The results show that a joint use of different kinds of observations (photometry, spectroscopy, interferometry) is essential for shedding light on the structure of the atmosphere of a carbon-rich Mira. The dynamic model atmospheres fit the ISO spectrum well in the wavelength range λ = [2.9,25.0] μm. Nevertheless, a discrepancy is noticeable both in the SED (visible) and in the interferometric visibilities (shape and level), which is a possible explanation are intra-/inter-cycle variations in the dynamic model atmospheres, as well as in the observations. The presence of a companion star and/or a disk or a decrease in mass loss within the past few hundred years cannot be excluded, but these explanations are considered unlikely. Based on observations made with ESO telescopes at La Silla Paranal Observatory under programme IDs: 085.D-0756 and 093. D-0708.Appendix A is available in electronic form at http://www.aanda.org

Comparison of global sst analyses for atmospheric data assimilation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Phoebus, P.A.; Cummings, J.A.

1995-03-17

Traditionally, atmospheric models were executed using a climatological estimate of the sea surface temperature (SST) to define the marine boundary layer. More recently, particularly since the deployment of remote sensing instruments and the advent of multichannel SST observations atmospheric models have been improved by using more timely estimates of the actual state of the ocean. Typically, some type of objective analysis is performed using the data from satellites along with ship, buoy, and bathythermograph observations, and perhaps even climatology, to produce a weekly or daily analysis of global SST. Some of the earlier efforts to produce real-time global temperature analysesmore » have been described by Clancy and Pollak (1983) and Reynolds (1988). However, just as new techniques have been developed for atmospheric data assimilation, improvements have been made to ocean data assimilation systems as well. In 1988, the U.S. Navy`s Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC) implemented a global three-dimensional ocean temperature analysis that was based on the optimum interpolation methodology (Clancy et al., 1990). This system, the Optimum Thermal Interpolation System (OTIS 1.0), was initially distributed on a 2.50 resolution grid, and was later modified to generate fields on a 1.250 grid (OTIS 1.1; Clancy et al., 1992). Other optimum interpolation-based analyses (OTIS 3.0) were developed by FNMOC to perform high-resolution three-dimensional ocean thermal analyses in areas with strong frontal gradients and clearly defined water mass characteristics.« less

A wind energy benchmark for ABL modelling of a diurnal cycle with a nocturnal low-level jet: GABLS3 revisited

DOE PAGES

Rodrigo, J. Sanz; Churchfield, M.; Kosović, B.

2016-10-03

The third GEWEX Atmospheric Boundary Layer Studies (GABLS3) model intercomparison study, around the Cabauw met tower in the Netherlands, is revisited as a benchmark for wind energy atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) models. The case was originally developed by the boundary layer meteorology community, interested in analysing the performance of single-column and large-eddy simulation atmospheric models dealing with a diurnal cycle leading to the development of a nocturnal low-level jet. The case addresses fundamental questions related to the definition of the large-scale forcing, the interaction of the ABL with the surface and the evaluation of model results with observations. The characterizationmore » of mesoscale forcing for asynchronous microscale modelling of the ABL is discussed based on momentum budget analysis of WRF simulations. Then a single-column model is used to demonstrate the added value of incorporating different forcing mechanisms in microscale models. The simulations are evaluated in terms of wind energy quantities of interest.« less

The Met Office Coupled Atmosphere/Land/Ocean/Sea-Ice Data Assimilation System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lea, Daniel; Mirouze, Isabelle; Martin, Matthew; Hines, Adrian; Guiavarch, Catherine; Shelly, Ann

2014-05-01

The Met Office has developed a weakly-coupled data assimilation (DA) system using the global coupled model HADGEM3 (Hadley Centre Global Environment Model, version 3). This model combines the atmospheric model UM (Unified Model) at 60 km horizontal resolution on 85 vertical levels, the ocean model NEMO (Nucleus for European Modeling of the Ocean) at 25 km (at the equator) horizontal resolution on 75 vertical levels, and the sea-ice model CICE at the same resolution as NEMO. The atmosphere and the ocean/sea-ice fields are coupled every 1-hour using the OASIS coupler. The coupled model is corrected using two separate 6-hour window data assimilation systems: a 4D-Var for the atmosphere with associated soil moisture content nudging and snow analysis schemes on the one hand, and a 3D-Var FGAT for the ocean and sea-ice on the other hand. The background information in the DA systems comes from a previous 6-hour forecast of the coupled model. To show the impact of coupled DA, one-month experiments have been carried out, including 1) a full atmosphere/land/ocean/sea-ice coupled DA run, 2) an atmosphere-only run forced by OSTIA SSTs and sea-ice with atmosphere and land DA, and 3) an ocean-only run forced by atmospheric fields from run 2 with ocean and sea-ice DA. In addition, 5-day forecast runs, started twice a day, have been produced from initial conditions generated by either run 1 or a combination of runs 2 and 3. The different results have been compared to each other and, whenever possible, to other references such as the Met Office atmosphere and ocean operational analyses or the OSTIA data. These all show the coupled DA system functioning well. Evidence of imbalances and initialisation shocks has also been looked for.

Observing the atmosphere in moisture space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schulz, Hauke; Stevens, Bjorn

2017-04-01

Processes behind convective aggregation have mostly been analysed and identified on the basis of relatively idealized cloud resolving model studies. Relatively little effort has been spent on using observations to test or quantify the findings coming from the models. In 2010 the Barbados Cloud Observatory (BCO) was established on Barbados, which is on the edge of the ITCZ, in part to test hypotheses such as those emerging form the analysis of cloud resolving models. To better test ideas related to the driving forces of convective aggregation, we analyse BCO measurements to identify the processes changing the moist static energy flux, in moisture space, i.e., as a function of rank column water vapour. Similar approaches are used to analyse cloud resolving models. We composite five years of cloud- and water-vapor profiles, from a cloud radar, and Raman water vapour lidar to construct the structure of the observed atmosphere in moisture space. The data show both agreement and disagreement with the models: radiative transfer calculations of the cross-section reveal a strong anomalous radiative cooling in the boundary layer at the dry end of the moisture space. We show that the radiation, mainly in the long-wave, implies a shallow circulation. This circulation agrees generally with supplementary used reanalysis datasets, but the strength and extent vary more markedly across the analyses. Consistent with the modelling, the implied radiative driven circulation supports the aggregation process by importing net moist static energy into the moist regimes.

ATMOSPHERIC DISPERSAL AND DEPOSITION OF TEPHRA FROM A POTENTIAL VOLCANIC ERUPTION AT YUCCA MOUNTAIN, NEVADA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

C. Harrington

2004-10-25

The purpose of this model report is to provide documentation of the conceptual and mathematical model (Ashplume) for atmospheric dispersal and subsequent deposition of ash on the land surface from a potential volcanic eruption at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. This report also documents the ash (tephra) redistribution conceptual model. These aspects of volcanism-related dose calculation are described in the context of the entire igneous disruptive events conceptual model in ''Characterize Framework for Igneous Activity'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169989], Section 6.1.1). The Ashplume conceptual model accounts for incorporation and entrainment of waste fuel particles associated with a hypothetical volcanic eruption through themore » Yucca Mountain repository and downwind transport of contaminated tephra. The Ashplume mathematical model describes the conceptual model in mathematical terms to allow for prediction of radioactive waste/ash deposition on the ground surface given that the hypothetical eruptive event occurs. This model report also describes the conceptual model for tephra redistribution from a basaltic cinder cone. Sensitivity analyses and model validation activities for the ash dispersal and redistribution models are also presented. Analyses documented in this model report update the previous documentation of the Ashplume mathematical model and its application to the Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the License Application (TSPA-LA) igneous scenarios. This model report also documents the redistribution model product outputs based on analyses to support the conceptual model. In this report, ''Ashplume'' is used when referring to the atmospheric dispersal model and ''ASHPLUME'' is used when referencing the code of that model. Two analysis and model reports provide direct inputs to this model report, namely ''Characterize Eruptive Processes at Yucca Mountain, Nevada and Number of Waste Packages Hit by Igneous Intrusion''. This model report provides direct inputs to the TSPA, which uses the ASHPLUME software described and used in this model report. Thus, ASHPLUME software inputs are inputs to this model report for ASHPLUME runs in this model report. However, ASHPLUME software inputs are outputs of this model report for ASHPLUME runs by TSPA.« less

Atmospheric Research 2016 Technical Highlights

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Platnick, Steven

2017-01-01

Atmospheric research in the Earth Sciences Division (610) consists of research and technology development programs dedicated to advancing knowledge and understanding of the atmosphere and its interaction with the climate of Earth. The Divisions goals are to improve understanding of the dynamics and physical properties of precipitation, clouds, and aerosols; atmospheric chemistry, including the role of natural and anthropogenic trace species on the ozone balance in the stratosphere and the troposphere; and radiative properties of Earth's atmosphere and the influence of solar variability on the Earth's climate. Major research activities are carried out in the Mesoscale Atmospheric Processes Laboratory, the Climate and Radiation Laboratory, the Atmospheric Chemistry and Dynamics Laboratory, and the Wallops Field Support Office. The overall scope of the research covers an end-to-end process, starting with the identification of scientific problems, leading to observation requirements for remote-sensing platforms, technology and retrieval algorithm development; followed by flight projects and satellite missions; and eventually, resulting in data processing, analyses of measurements, and dissemination from flight projects and missions. Instrument scientists conceive, design, develop, and implement ultraviolet, infrared, optical, radar, laser, and lidar technology to remotely sense the atmosphere. Members of the various laboratories conduct field measurements for satellite sensor calibration and data validation, and carry out numerous modeling activities. These modeling activities include climate model simulations, modeling the chemistry and transport of trace species on regional-to-global scales, cloud resolving models, and developing the next-generation Earth system models. Satellite missions, field campaigns, peer-reviewed publications, and successful proposals are essential at every stage of the research process to meeting our goals and maintaining leadership of the Earth Sciences Division in atmospheric science research. Figure 1.1 shows the 22-year record of peer-reviewed publications and proposals among the various laboratories.

Tipping point analysis of atmospheric oxygen concentration

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Livina, V. N.; Forbes, A. B.; Vaz Martins, T. M.

2015-03-15

We apply tipping point analysis to nine observational oxygen concentration records around the globe, analyse their dynamics and perform projections under possible future scenarios, leading to oxygen deficiency in the atmosphere. The analysis is based on statistical physics framework with stochastic modelling, where we represent the observed data as a composition of deterministic and stochastic components estimated from the observed data using Bayesian and wavelet techniques.

Effect of increasing CO2 on the terrestrial carbon cycle

PubMed Central

Schimel, David; Fisher, Joshua B.

2015-01-01

Feedbacks from the terrestrial carbon cycle significantly affect future climate change. The CO2 concentration dependence of global terrestrial carbon storage is one of the largest and most uncertain feedbacks. Theory predicts the CO2 effect should have a tropical maximum, but a large terrestrial sink has been contradicted by analyses of atmospheric CO2 that do not show large tropical uptake. Our results, however, show significant tropical uptake and, combining tropical and extratropical fluxes, suggest that up to 60% of the present-day terrestrial sink is caused by increasing atmospheric CO2. This conclusion is consistent with a validated subset of atmospheric analyses, but uncertainty remains. Improved model diagnostics and new space-based observations can reduce the uncertainty of tropical and temperate zone carbon flux estimates. This analysis supports a significant feedback to future atmospheric CO2 concentrations from carbon uptake in terrestrial ecosystems caused by rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations. This feedback will have substantial tropical contributions, but the magnitude of future carbon uptake by tropical forests also depends on how they respond to climate change and requires their protection from deforestation. PMID:25548156

Laser Atmospheric Wind Sounder (LAWS) phase 1. Volume 3: Project cost estimates

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1990-01-01

The laser atmospheric wind sounder (LAWS) cost modeling activities were initiated in phase 1 to establish the ground rules and cost model that would apply to both phase 1 and phase 2 cost analyses. The primary emphasis in phase 1 was development of a cost model for a LAWS instrument for the Japanese Polar Orbiting Platform (JPOP). However, the Space Station application was also addressed in this model, and elements were included, where necessary, to account for Space Station unique items. The cost model presented in the following sections defines the framework for all LAWS cost modeling. The model is consistent with currently available detail, and can be extended to account for greater detail as the project definition progresses.

The influence of leaf-atmosphere NH3(g ) exchange on the isotopic composition of nitrogen in plants and the atmosphere.

PubMed

Johnson, Jennifer E; Berry, Joseph A

2013-10-01

The distribution of nitrogen isotopes in the biosphere has the potential to offer insights into the past, present and future of the nitrogen cycle, but it is challenging to unravel the processes controlling patterns of mixing and fractionation. We present a mathematical model describing a previously overlooked process: nitrogen isotope fractionation during leaf-atmosphere NH3(g ) exchange. The model predicts that when leaf-atmosphere exchange of NH3(g ) occurs in a closed system, the atmospheric reservoir of NH3(g ) equilibrates at a concentration equal to the ammonia compensation point and an isotopic composition 8.1‰ lighter than nitrogen in protein. In an open system, when atmospheric concentrations of NH3(g ) fall below or rise above the compensation point, protein can be isotopically enriched by net efflux of NH3(g ) or depleted by net uptake. Comparison of model output with existing measurements in the literature suggests that this process contributes to variation in the isotopic composition of nitrogen in plants as well as NH3(g ) in the atmosphere, and should be considered in future analyses of nitrogen isotope circulation. The matrix-based modelling approach that is introduced may be useful for quantifying isotope dynamics in other complex systems that can be described by first-order kinetics. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Non-LTE line formation of Fe in late-type stars - III. 3D non-LTE analysis of metal-poor stars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amarsi, A. M.; Lind, K.; Asplund, M.; Barklem, P. S.; Collet, R.

2016-12-01

As one of the most important elements in astronomy, iron abundance determinations need to be as accurate as possible. We investigate the accuracy of spectroscopic iron abundance analyses using archetypal metal-poor stars. We perform detailed 3D non-LTE radiative transfer calculations based on 3D hydrodynamic STAGGER model atmospheres, and employ a new model atom that includes new quantum-mechanical neutral hydrogen collisional rate coefficients. With the exception of the red giant HD122563, we find that the 3D non-LTE models achieve Fe I/Fe II excitation and ionization balance as well as not having any trends with equivalent width to within modelling uncertainties of 0.05 dex, all without having to invoke any microturbulent broadening; for HD122563 we predict that the current best parallax-based surface gravity is overestimated by 0.5 dex. Using a 3D non-LTE analysis, we infer iron abundances from the 3D model atmospheres that are roughly 0.1 dex higher than corresponding abundances from 1D MARCS model atmospheres; these differences go in the same direction as the non-LTE effects themselves. We make available grids of departure coefficients, equivalent widths and abundance corrections, calculated on 1D MARCS model atmospheres and horizontally and temporally averaged 3D STAGGER model atmospheres.

Descriptive and sensitivity analyses of WATBALI: A dynamic soil water model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hildreth, W. W. (Principal Investigator)

1981-01-01

A soil water computer model that uses the IBM Continuous System Modeling Program III to solve the dynamic equations representing the soil, plant, and atmospheric physical or physiological processes considered is presented and discussed. Using values describing the soil-plant-atmosphere characteristics, the model predicts evaporation, transpiration, drainage, and soil water profile changes from an initial soil water profile and daily meteorological data. The model characteristics and simulations that were performed to determine the nature of the response to controlled variations in the input are described the results of the simulations are included and a change that makes the response of the model more closely represent the observed characteristics of evapotranspiration and profile changes for dry soil conditions is examined.

Neptune Aerocapture Systems Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lockwood, Mary Kae

2004-01-01

A Neptune Aerocapture Systems Analysis is completed to determine the feasibility, benefit and risk of an aeroshell aerocapture system for Neptune and to identify technology gaps and technology performance goals. The high fidelity systems analysis is completed by a five center NASA team and includes the following disciplines and analyses: science; mission design; aeroshell configuration screening and definition; interplanetary navigation analyses; atmosphere modeling; computational fluid dynamics for aerodynamic performance and database definition; initial stability analyses; guidance development; atmospheric flight simulation; computational fluid dynamics and radiation analyses for aeroheating environment definition; thermal protection system design, concepts and sizing; mass properties; structures; spacecraft design and packaging; and mass sensitivities. Results show that aerocapture can deliver 1.4 times more mass to Neptune orbit than an all-propulsive system for the same launch vehicle. In addition aerocapture results in a 3-4 year reduction in trip time compared to all-propulsive systems. Aerocapture is feasible and performance is adequate for the Neptune aerocapture mission. Monte Carlo simulation results show 100% successful capture for all cases including conservative assumptions on atmosphere and navigation. Enabling technologies for this mission include TPS manufacturing; and aerothermodynamic methods and validation for determining coupled 3-D convection, radiation and ablation aeroheating rates and loads, and the effects on surface recession.

Forcing, feedbacks and climate sensitivity in CMIP5 coupled atmosphere-ocean climate models

DOE PAGES

Andrews, Timothy; Gregory, Jonathan M.; Webb, Mark J.; ...

2012-05-15

We quantify forcing and feedbacks across available CMIP5 coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) by analysing simulations forced by an abrupt quadrupling of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. This is the first application of the linear forcing-feedback regression analysis of Gregory et al. (2004) to an ensemble of AOGCMs. The range of equilibrium climate sensitivity is 2.1–4.7 K. Differences in cloud feedbacks continue to be important contributors to this range. Some models show small deviations from a linear dependence of top-of-atmosphere radiative fluxes on global surface temperature change. We show that this phenomenon largely arises from shortwave cloud radiative effects overmore » the ocean and is consistent with independent estimates of forcing using fixed sea-surface temperature methods. Moreover, we suggest that future research should focus more on understanding transient climate change, including any time-scale dependence of the forcing and/or feedback, rather than on the equilibrium response to large instantaneous forcing.« less

Theoretical oscillation frequencies for solar-type dwarfs from stellar models with 〈3D〉-atmospheres

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jørgensen, Andreas Christ Sølvsten; Weiss, Achim; Mosumgaard, Jakob Rørsted; Silva Aguirre, Victor; Sahlholdt, Christian Lundsgaard

2017-12-01

We present a new method for replacing the outermost layers of stellar models with interpolated atmospheres based on results from 3D simulations, in order to correct for structural inadequacies of these layers. This replacement is known as patching. Tests, based on 3D atmospheres from three different codes and interior models with different input physics, are performed. Using solar models, we investigate how different patching criteria affect the eigenfrequencies. These criteria include the depth, at which the replacement is performed, the quantity, on which the replacement is based, and the mismatch in Teff and log g between the un-patched model and patched 3D atmosphere. We find the eigenfrequencies to be unaltered by the patching depth deep within the adiabatic region, while changing the patching quantity or the employed atmosphere grid leads to frequency shifts that may exceed 1 μHz. Likewise, the eigenfrequencies are sensitive to mismatches in Teff or log g. A thorough investigation of the accuracy of a new scheme, for interpolating mean 3D stratifications within the atmosphere grids, is furthermore performed. Throughout large parts of the atmosphere grids, our interpolation scheme yields sufficiently accurate results for the purpose of asteroseismology. We apply our procedure in asteroseismic analyses of four Kepler stars and draw the same conclusions as in the solar case: Correcting for structural deficiencies lowers the eigenfrequencies, this correction is slightly sensitive to the patching criteria, and the remaining frequency discrepancy between models and observations is less frequency dependent. Our work shows the applicability and relevance of patching in asteroseismology.

Empowering Geoscience with Improved Data Assimilation Using the Data Assimilation Research Testbed "Manhattan" Release.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raeder, K.; Hoar, T. J.; Anderson, J. L.; Collins, N.; Hendricks, J.; Kershaw, H.; Ha, S.; Snyder, C.; Skamarock, W. C.; Mizzi, A. P.; Liu, H.; Liu, J.; Pedatella, N. M.; Karspeck, A. R.; Karol, S. I.; Bitz, C. M.; Zhang, Y.

2017-12-01

The capabilities of the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART) at NCAR have been significantly expanded with the recent "Manhattan" release. DART is an ensemble Kalman filter based suite of tools, which enables researchers to use data assimilation (DA) without first becoming DA experts. Highlights: significant improvement in efficient ensemble DA for very large models on thousands of processors, direct read and write of model state files in parallel, more control of the DA output for finer-grained analysis, new model interfaces which are useful to a variety of geophysical researchers, new observation forward operators and the ability to use precomputed forward operators from the forecast model. The new model interfaces and example applications include the following: MPAS-A; Model for Prediction Across Scales - Atmosphere is a global, nonhydrostatic, variable-resolution mesh atmospheric model, which facilitates multi-scale analysis and forecasting. The absence of distinct subdomains eliminates problems associated with subdomain boundaries. It demonstrates the ability to consistently produce higher-quality analyses than coarse, uniform meshes do. WRF-Chem; Weather Research and Forecasting + (MOZART) Chemistry model assimilates observations from FRAPPÉ (Front Range Air Pollution and Photochemistry Experiment). WACCM-X; Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model with thermosphere and ionosphere eXtension assimilates observations of electron density to investigate sudden stratospheric warming. CESM (weakly) coupled assimilation; NCAR's Community Earth System Model is used for assimilation of atmospheric and oceanic observations into their respective components using coupled atmosphere+land+ocean+sea+ice forecasts. CESM2.0; Assimilation in the atmospheric component (CAM, WACCM) of the newly released version is supported. This version contains new and extensively updated components and software environment. CICE; Los Alamos sea ice model (in CESM) is used to assimilate multivariate sea ice concentration observations to constrain the model's ice thickness, concentration, and parameters.

Validation and Sensitivity Analysis of a New Atmosphere-Soil-Vegetation Model.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nagai, Haruyasu

2002-02-01

This paper describes details, validation, and sensitivity analysis of a new atmosphere-soil-vegetation model. The model consists of one-dimensional multilayer submodels for atmosphere, soil, and vegetation and radiation schemes for the transmission of solar and longwave radiations in canopy. The atmosphere submodel solves prognostic equations for horizontal wind components, potential temperature, specific humidity, fog water, and turbulence statistics by using a second-order closure model. The soil submodel calculates the transport of heat, liquid water, and water vapor. The vegetation submodel evaluates the heat and water budget on leaf surface and the downward liquid water flux. The model performance was tested by using measured data of the Cooperative Atmosphere-Surface Exchange Study (CASES). Calculated ground surface fluxes were mainly compared with observations at a winter wheat field, concerning the diurnal variation and change in 32 days of the first CASES field program in 1997, CASES-97. The measured surface fluxes did not satisfy the energy balance, so sensible and latent heat fluxes obtained by the eddy correlation method were corrected. By using options of the solar radiation scheme, which addresses the effect of the direct solar radiation component, calculated albedo agreed well with the observations. Some sensitivity analyses were also done for model settings. Model calculations of surface fluxes and surface temperature were in good agreement with measurements as a whole.

Carbon and nitrogen abundances in the supergiants HD 93840 and zeta Per

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Massa, Derck; Altner, Bruce; Wynne, David; Lamers, H. J. G. L. M.

1990-01-01

The BN supergiant HD 93840 is shown to have the same temperature and surface gravity as the normal Bi Ib zeta Per. Differential abundance analysis of their C 4 and N 5 wind line profiles are found. The results are independent of the usual model atmosphere analyses and, therefore, a valuable check on them. Ratios for the C and N surface abundances in HD 93840 compared to Per of 1:10 and 4.6:1 are found respectively. By introducing a simple model for the compositions of both atmospheres the fraction of material in each atmosphere which has undergone CNO processing, more than 90 percent for HD 93840 and less than about 15 percent for zeta Per, is derived.

Compiled records of carbon isotopes in atmospheric CO2 for historical simulations in CMIP6

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graven, Heather; Allison, Colin E.; Etheridge, David M.; Hammer, Samuel; Keeling, Ralph F.; Levin, Ingeborg; Meijer, Harro A. J.; Rubino, Mauro; Tans, Pieter P.; Trudinger, Cathy M.; Vaughn, Bruce H.; White, James W. C.

2017-12-01

The isotopic composition of carbon (Δ14C and δ13C) in atmospheric CO2 and in oceanic and terrestrial carbon reservoirs is influenced by anthropogenic emissions and by natural carbon exchanges, which can respond to and drive changes in climate. Simulations of 14C and 13C in the ocean and terrestrial components of Earth system models (ESMs) present opportunities for model evaluation and for investigation of carbon cycling, including anthropogenic CO2 emissions and uptake. The use of carbon isotopes in novel evaluation of the ESMs' component ocean and terrestrial biosphere models and in new analyses of historical changes may improve predictions of future changes in the carbon cycle and climate system. We compile existing data to produce records of Δ14C and δ13C in atmospheric CO2 for the historical period 1850-2015. The primary motivation for this compilation is to provide the atmospheric boundary condition for historical simulations in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) for models simulating carbon isotopes in the ocean or terrestrial biosphere. The data may also be useful for other carbon cycle modelling activities.

Inferring heat recirculation and albedo for exoplanetary atmospheres: Comparing optical phase curves and secondary eclipse data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

von Paris, P.; Gratier, P.; Bordé, P.; Selsis, F.

2016-03-01

Context. Basic atmospheric properties, such as albedo and heat redistribution between day- and nightsides, have been inferred for a number of planets using observations of secondary eclipses and thermal phase curves. Optical phase curves have not yet been used to constrain these atmospheric properties consistently. Aims: We model previously published phase curves of CoRoT-1b, TrES-2b, and HAT-P-7b, and infer albedos and recirculation efficiencies. These are then compared to previous estimates based on secondary eclipse data. Methods: We use a physically consistent model to construct optical phase curves. This model takes Lambertian reflection, thermal emission, ellipsoidal variations, and Doppler boosting, into account. Results: CoRoT-1b shows a non-negligible scattering albedo (0.11 < AS < 0.3 at 95% confidence) as well as small day-night temperature contrasts, which are indicative of moderate to high re-distribution of energy between dayside and nightside. These values are contrary to previous secondary eclipse and phase curve analyses. In the case of HAT-P-7b, model results suggest a relatively high scattering albedo (AS ≈ 0.3). This confirms previous phase curve analysis; however, it is in slight contradiction to values inferred from secondary eclipse data. For TrES-2b, both approaches yield very similar estimates of albedo and heat recirculation. Discrepancies between recirculation and albedo values as inferred from secondary eclipse and optical phase curve analyses might be interpreted as a hint that optical and IR observations probe different atmospheric layers, hence temperatures.

Influence of sub-kilometer precipitation datasets on simulated snowpack and glacier winter balance in alpine terrain.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vionnet, Vincent; Six, Delphine; Auger, Ludovic; Lafaysse, Matthieu; Quéno, Louis; Réveillet, Marion; Dombrowski-Etchevers, Ingrid; Thibert, Emmanuel; Dumont, Marie

2017-04-01

Capturing spatial and temporal variabilities of meteorological conditions at fine scale is necessary for modelling snowpack and glacier winter mass balance in alpine terrain. In particular, precipitation amount and phase are strongly influenced by the complex topography. In this study, we assess the impact of three sub-kilometer precipitation datasets (rainfall and snowfall) on distributed simulations of snowpack and glacier winter mass balance with the detailed snowpack model Crocus for winter 2011-2012. The different precipitation datasets at 500-m grid spacing over part of the French Alps (200*200 km2 area) are coming either from (i) the SAFRAN precipitation analysis specially developed for alpine terrain, or from (ii) operational outputs of the atmospheric model AROME at 2.5-km grid spacing downscaled to 500 m with fixed lapse rate or from (iii) a version of the atmospheric model AROME at 500-m grid spacing. Others atmospherics forcings (air temperature and humidity, incoming longwave and shortwave radiation, wind speed) are taken from the AROME simulations at 500-m grid spacing. These atmospheric forcings are firstly compared against a network of automatic weather stations. Results are analysed with respect to station location (valley, mid- and high-altitude). The spatial pattern of seasonal snowfall and its dependency with elevation is then analysed for the different precipitation datasets. Large differences between SAFRAN and the two versions of AROME are found at high-altitude. Finally, results of Crocus snowpack simulations are evaluated against (i) punctual in-situ measurements of snow depth and snow water equivalent, and (ii) maps of snow covered areas retrieved from optical satellite data (MODIS). Measurements of winter accumulation of six glaciers of the French Alps are also used and provide very valuable information on precipitation at high-altitude where the conventional observation network is scarce. This study illustrates the potential and limitations of high-resolution atmospheric models to drive simulations of snowpack and glacier winter mass balance in alpine terrain.

Verification and Validation of COAMPS: Results from a Fully-Coupled Air/Sea/Wave Modeling System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, T.; Allard, R. A.; Campbell, T. J.; Chu, Y. P.; Dykes, J.; Zamudio, L.; Chen, S.; Gabersek, S.

2016-02-01

The Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS) is a state-of-the art, fully-coupled air/sea/wave modeling system that is currently being validated for operational transition to both the Naval Oceanographic Office (NAVO) and to the Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC). COAMPS is run at the Department of Defense Supercomputing Resource Center (DSRC) operated by the DoD High Performance Computing Modernization Program (HPCMP). A total of four models including the Naval Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM), Simulating Waves Nearshore (SWAN), WaveWatch III, and the COAMPS atmospheric model are coupled through both the Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF). Results from regions of naval operational interests, including the Western Atlantic (U.S. East Coast), RIMPAC (Hawaii), and DYNAMO (Indian Ocean), will show the advantages of utilizing a coupled modeling system versus an uncoupled or stand alone model. Statistical analyses, which include model/observation comparisons, will be presented in the form of operationally approved scorecards for both the atmospheric and oceanic output. Also, computational logistics involving the HPC resources for the COAMPS simulations will be shown.

Comparing Global Atmospheric CO2 Flux and Transport Models with Remote Sensing (and Other) Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kawa, S. R.; Collatz, G. J.; Pawson, S.; Wennberg, P. O.; Wofsy, S. C.; Andrews, A. E.

2010-01-01

We report recent progress derived from comparison of global CO2 flux and transport models with new remote sensing and other sources of CO2 data including those from satellite. The overall objective of this activity is to improve the process models that represent our understanding of the workings of the atmospheric carbon cycle. Model estimates of CO2 surface flux and atmospheric transport processes are required for initial constraints on inverse analyses, to connect atmospheric observations to the location of surface sources and sinks, to provide the basic framework for carbon data assimilation, and ultimately for future projections of carbon-climate interactions. Models can also be used to test consistency within and between CO2 data sets under varying geophysical states. Here we focus on simulated CO2 fluxes from terrestrial vegetation and atmospheric transport mutually constrained by analyzed meteorological fields from the Goddard Modeling and Assimilation Office for the period 2000 through 2009. Use of assimilated meteorological data enables direct model comparison to observations across a wide range of scales of variability. The biospheric fluxes are produced by the CASA model at 1x1 degrees on a monthly mean basis, modulated hourly with analyzed temperature and sunlight. Both physiological and biomass burning fluxes are derived using satellite observations of vegetation, burned area (as in GFED-3), and analyzed meteorology. For the purposes of comparison to CO2 data, fossil fuel and ocean fluxes are also included in the transport simulations. In this presentation we evaluate the model's ability to simulate CO2 flux and mixing ratio variability in comparison to remote sensing observations from TCCON, GOSAT, and AIRS as well as relevant in situ observations. Examples of the influence of key process representations are shown from both forward and inverse model comparisons. We find that the model can resolve much of the synoptic, seasonal, and interannual variability in the observations, although reasons for persistent discrepancies in northern hemisphere vegetation uptake are examined. At this time, we do not find any serious shortcomings in the model transport representation, but this is still the subject of close scrutiny. In general, the fidelity of these simulations leads us to anticipate incorporation of real-time, highly resolved remote sensing and other observations into quantitative analyses that will reduce uncertainty in CO2 fluxes and revolutionize our understanding of the key processes controlling atmospheric CO2 and its evolution with time.

Impact of satellite data on large-scale circulation statistics as determined from GLAS analyses during FGGE-SOP-1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Salstein, D. A.; Rosen, R. D.

1982-01-01

A study using the analyses produced from the assimilation cycle of parallel model runs that both include and withhold satellite data was undertaken. The analyzed state of the atmosphere is performed using data from a certain test period during the first Special Observing Period (SOP) of the Global Weather Experiment (FGGE).

Mountain Waves in the Middle Atmosphere: Microwave Limb Sounder Observations and Analyses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jiang, Jonathan H.; Wu, Dong L.; Eckermann, Stephen D.; Ma, Jun

2003-01-01

Observations and analyses of mesoscale gravity waves in the stratosphere from the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) are summarized, with focus on global distribution of topography related wave activities. We found most of the orographical wave activities occur during the winter seasons over high latitude mountain ridges. In the northern hemisphere, the strongest waves are those over Scandinavia, Central Eurasia, and southern Greenland, whereas in the southern hemisphere, wave activities are outstanding over the Andes, New Zealand, and Antarctic rim;, MLS observations suggest that these orographic waves are located mostly on the down stream side of the mountain ridge with downward phase progression and have horizontal phase velocities opposite to the stratospheric jet-stream. Future studies using MLS data and numerical modeling will lead to better understanding of gravity wave effects on dynamics and chemistry in the middle atmosphere.

Reallocation in modal aerosol models: impacts on predicting aerosol radiative effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Korhola, T.; Kokkola, H.; Korhonen, H.; Partanen, A.-I.; Laaksonen, A.; Lehtinen, K. E. J.; Romakkaniemi, S.

2013-08-01

In atmospheric modelling applications the aerosol particle size distribution is commonly represented by modal approach, in which particles in different size ranges are described with log-normal modes within predetermined size ranges. Such method includes numerical reallocation of particles from a mode to another for example during particle growth, leading to potentially artificial changes in the aerosol size distribution. In this study we analysed how this reallocation affects climatologically relevant parameters: cloud droplet number concentration, aerosol-cloud interaction coefficient and light extinction coefficient. We compared these parameters between a modal model with and without reallocation routines, and a high resolution sectional model that was considered as a reference model. We analysed the relative differences of the parameters in different experiments that were designed to cover a wide range of dynamic aerosol processes occurring in the atmosphere. According to our results, limiting the allowed size ranges of the modes and the following numerical remapping of the distribution by reallocation, leads on average to underestimation of cloud droplet number concentration (up to 100%) and overestimation of light extinction (up to 20%). The analysis of aerosol first indirect effect is more complicated as the ACI parameter can be either over- or underestimated by the reallocating model, depending on the conditions. However, for example in the case of atmospheric new particle formation events followed by rapid particle growth, the reallocation can cause around average 10% overestimation of the ACI parameter. Thus it is shown that the reallocation affects the ability of a model to estimate aerosol climate effects accurately, and this should be taken into account when using and developing aerosol models.

The 2006 Kennedy Space Center Range Reference Atmosphere Model Validation Study and Sensitivity Analysis to the Performance of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Space Shuttle Vehicle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Burns, Lee; Decker, Ryan; Harrington, Brian; Merry, Carl

2008-01-01

The Kennedy Space Center (KSC) Range Reference Atmosphere (RRA) is a statistical model that summarizes wind and thermodynamic atmospheric variability from surface to 70 km. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Space Shuttle program, which launches from KSC, utilizes the KSC RRA data to evaluate environmental constraints on various aspects of the vehicle during ascent. An update to the KSC RRA was recently completed. As part of the update, the Natural Environments Branch at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) conducted a validation study and a comparison analysis to the existing KSC RRA database version 1983. Assessments to the Space Shuttle vehicle ascent profile characteristics were performed by JSC/Ascent Flight Design Division to determine impacts of the updated model to the vehicle performance. Details on the model updates and the vehicle sensitivity analyses with the update model are presented.

O the Development and Use of Four-Dimensional Data Assimilation in Limited-Area Mesoscale Models Used for Meteorological Analysis.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stauffer, David R.

1990-01-01

The application of dynamic relationships to the analysis problem for the atmosphere is extended to use a full-physics limited-area mesoscale model as the dynamic constraint. A four-dimensional data assimilation (FDDA) scheme based on Newtonian relaxation or "nudging" is developed and evaluated in the Penn State/National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU/NCAR) mesoscale model, which is used here as a dynamic-analysis tool. The thesis is to determine what assimilation strategies and what meterological fields (mass, wind or both) have the greatest positive impact on the 72-h numerical simulations (dynamic analyses) of two mid-latitude, real-data cases. The basic FDDA methodology is tested in a 10-layer version of the model with a bulk-aerodynamic (single-layer) representation of the planetary boundary layer (PBL), and refined in a 15-layer version of the model by considering the effects of data assimilation within a multi-layer PBL scheme. As designed, the model solution can be relaxed toward either gridded analyses ("analysis nudging"), or toward the actual observations ("obs nudging"). The data used for assimilation include standard 12-hourly rawinsonde data, and also 3-hourly mesoalpha-scale surface data which are applied within the model's multi-layer PBL. Continuous assimilation of standard-resolution rawinsonde data into the 10-layer model successfully reduced large-scale amplitude and phase errors while the model realistically simulated mesoscale structures poorly defined or absent in the rawinsonde analyses and in the model simulations without FDDA. Nudging the model fields directly toward the rawinsonde observations generally produced results comparable to nudging toward gridded analyses. This obs -nudging technique is especially attractive for the assimilation of high-frequency, asynoptic data. Assimilation of 3-hourly surface wind and moisture data into the 15-layer FDDA system was most effective for improving the simulated precipitation fields because a significant portion of the vertically integrated moisture convergence often occurs in the PBL. Overall, the best dynamic analyses for the PBL, mass, wind and precipitation fields were obtained by nudging toward analyses of rawinsonde wind, temperature and moisture (the latter uses a weaker nudging coefficient) above the model PBL and toward analyses of surface-layer wind and moisture within the model PBL.

A simple object-oriented and open-source model for scientific and policy analyses of the global climate system – Hector v1.0

DOE PAGES

Hartin, Corinne A.; Patel, Pralit L.; Schwarber, Adria; ...

2015-04-01

Simple climate models play an integral role in the policy and scientific communities. They are used for climate mitigation scenarios within integrated assessment models, complex climate model emulation, and uncertainty analyses. Here we describe Hector v1.0, an open source, object-oriented, simple global climate carbon-cycle model. This model runs essentially instantaneously while still representing the most critical global-scale earth system processes. Hector has a three-part main carbon cycle: a one-pool atmosphere, land, and ocean. The model's terrestrial carbon cycle includes primary production and respiration fluxes, accommodating arbitrary geographic divisions into, e.g., ecological biomes or political units. Hector actively solves the inorganicmore » carbon system in the surface ocean, directly calculating air–sea fluxes of carbon and ocean pH. Hector reproduces the global historical trends of atmospheric [CO 2], radiative forcing, and surface temperatures. The model simulates all four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) with equivalent rates of change of key variables over time compared to current observations, MAGICC (a well-known simple climate model), and models from the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Hector's flexibility, open-source nature, and modular design will facilitate a broad range of research in various areas.« less

Decadal variability of the Tropical Atlantic Ocean Surface Temperature in shipboard measurements and in a Global Ocean-Atmosphere model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mehta, Vikram M.; Delworth, Thomas

1995-01-01

Sea surface temperature (SST) variability was investigated in a 200-yr integration of a global model of the coupled oceanic and atmospheric general circulations developed at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). The second 100 yr of SST in the coupled model's tropical Atlantic region were analyzed with a variety of techniques. Analyses of SST time series, averaged over approximately the same subregions as the Global Ocean Surface Temperature Atlas (GOSTA) time series, showed that the GFDL SST anomalies also undergo pronounced quasi-oscillatory decadal and multidecadal variability but at somewhat shorter timescales than the GOSTA SST anomalies. Further analyses of the horizontal structures of the decadal timescale variability in the GFDL coupled model showed the existence of two types of variability in general agreement with results of the GOSTA SST time series analyses. One type, characterized by timescales between 8 and 11 yr, has high spatial coherence within each hemisphere but not between the two hemispheres of the tropical Atlantic. A second type, characterized by timescales between 12 and 20 yr, has high spatial coherence between the two hemispheres. The second type of variability is considerably weaker than the first. As in the GOSTA time series, the multidecadal variability in the GFDL SST time series has approximately opposite phases between the tropical North and South Atlantic Oceans. Empirical orthogonal function analyses of the tropical Atlantic SST anomalies revealed a north-south bipolar pattern as the dominant pattern of decadal variability. It is suggested that the bipolar pattern can be interpreted as decadal variability of the interhemispheric gradient of SST anomalies. The decadal and multidecadal timescale variability of the tropical Atlantic SST, both in the actual and in the GFDL model, stands out significantly above the background 'red noise' and is coherent within each of the time series, suggesting that specific sets of processes may be responsible for the choice of the decadal and multidecadal timescales. Finally, it must be emphasized that the GFDL coupled ocean-atmosphere model generates the decadal and multidecadal timescale variability without any externally applied force, solar or lunar, at those timescales.

Wheat signature modeling and analysis for improved training statistics: Supplement. Simulated LANDSAT wheat radiances and radiance components

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Malila, W. A.; Cicone, R. C.; Gleason, J. M.

1976-01-01

Simulated scanner system data values generated in support of LACIE (Large Area Crop Inventory Experiment) research and development efforts are presented. Synthetic inband (LANDSAT) wheat radiances and radiance components were computed and are presented for various wheat canopy and atmospheric conditions and scanner view geometries. Values include: (1) inband bidirectional reflectances for seven stages of wheat crop growth; (2) inband atmospheric features; and (3) inband radiances corresponding to the various combinations of wheat canopy and atmospheric conditions. Analyses of these data values are presented in the main report.

Atmospheric responses to sensible and latent heating fluxes over the Gulf Stream

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Minobe, S.; Ida, T.; Takatama, K.

2016-12-01

Air-sea interaction over mid-latitude oceanic fronts such as the Gulf Stream attracted large attention in the last decade. Observational analyses and modelling studies revealed that atmospheric responses over the Gulf Stream including surface wind convergence, enhanced precipitation and updraft penetrating to middle-to-upper troposphere roughly on the Gulf Stream current axis or on the warmer flank of sea-surface temperature (SST) front of the Gulf Stream . For these atmospheric responses, oceanic information should be transmitted to the atmosphere via turbulent heat fluxes, and thus the mechanisms for atmospheric responses can be understood better by examining latent and sensible air-sea heat fluxes more closely. Thus, the roles of the sensible and latent heat fluxes are examined by conducting a series of numerical experiments using the IPRC Regional Atmospheric Model over the Gulf Stream by applying SST smoothing for latent and sensible heating separately. The results indicate that the sensible and latent heat fluxes affect the atmosphere differently. Sensible heat flux intensifies surface wind convergence to produce sea-level pressure (SLP) anomaly. Latent heat flux supplies moistures and maintains enhanced precipitation. The different heat flux components cause upward wind velocity at different levels.

Line intensities: the good, the bad and the ugly

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brown, L. R.

2000-01-01

Atmospheric remote sensing requires that line intensities be measured and modeled to 5 percent or better in laboratory studies. Successes and failures for analyses of carbon monoxide, methane, methanol and nitric acid will be reviewed.

Studies of MGS TES and MPF MET Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barnes, Jeff R.

2003-01-01

The work supported by this grant was divided into two broad areas: (1) mesoscale modeling of atmospheric circulations and analyses of Pathfinder, Viking, and other Mars data, and (2) analyses of MGS TES temperature data. The mesoscale modeling began with the development of a suitable Mars mesoscale model based upon the terrestrial MM5 model, which was then applied to the simulation of the meteorological observations at the Pathfinder and Viking Lander 1 sites during northern summer. This extended study served a dual purpose: to validate the new mesoscale model with the best of the available in-situ data, and to use the model to aid in the interpretation of the surface meteorological data.

Development of a methodology for probable maximum precipitation estimation over the American River watershed using the WRF model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tan, Elcin

A new physically-based methodology for probable maximum precipitation (PMP) estimation is developed over the American River Watershed (ARW) using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF-ARW) model. A persistent moisture flux convergence pattern, called Pineapple Express, is analyzed for 42 historical extreme precipitation events, and it is found that Pineapple Express causes extreme precipitation over the basin of interest. An average correlation between moisture flux convergence and maximum precipitation is estimated as 0.71 for 42 events. The performance of the WRF model is verified for precipitation by means of calibration and independent validation of the model. The calibration procedure is performed only for the first ranked flood event 1997 case, whereas the WRF model is validated for 42 historical cases. Three nested model domains are set up with horizontal resolutions of 27 km, 9 km, and 3 km over the basin of interest. As a result of Chi-square goodness-of-fit tests, the hypothesis that "the WRF model can be used in the determination of PMP over the ARW for both areal average and point estimates" is accepted at the 5% level of significance. The sensitivities of model physics options on precipitation are determined using 28 microphysics, atmospheric boundary layer, and cumulus parameterization schemes combinations. It is concluded that the best triplet option is Thompson microphysics, Grell 3D ensemble cumulus, and YSU boundary layer (TGY), based on 42 historical cases, and this TGY triplet is used for all analyses of this research. Four techniques are proposed to evaluate physically possible maximum precipitation using the WRF: 1. Perturbations of atmospheric conditions; 2. Shift in atmospheric conditions; 3. Replacement of atmospheric conditions among historical events; and 4. Thermodynamically possible worst-case scenario creation. Moreover, climate change effect on precipitation is discussed by emphasizing temperature increase in order to determine the physically possible upper limits of precipitation due to climate change. The simulation results indicate that the meridional shift in atmospheric conditions is the optimum method to determine maximum precipitation in consideration of cost and efficiency. Finally, exceedance probability analyses of the model results of 42 historical extreme precipitation events demonstrate that the 72-hr basin averaged probable maximum precipitation is 21.72 inches for the exceedance probability of 0.5 percent. On the other hand, the current operational PMP estimation for the American River Watershed is 28.57 inches as published in the hydrometeorological report no. 59 and a previous PMP value was 31.48 inches as published in the hydrometeorological report no. 36. According to the exceedance probability analyses of this proposed method, the exceedance probabilities of these two estimations correspond to 0.036 percent and 0.011 percent, respectively.

A study of some effects of vertical shear on thunderstorms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Connell, J.

1976-01-01

Evidence is presented for the existence of vortices and vortex pairs in thunderstorms. A preliminary parameterized model of the nonthermal generation of thunderstorm vortices derived from field observations of storms and laboratory observations of a jet in crossflow is reported, together with an explanation of how such a model might be used to guide analysis of mesoscale rawinsonde, radar, and satellite data toward an improved capability for prediction of thunderstorm motion and growth. Preliminary analyses of radar and satellite data from Atmospheric Variability Experiment IV are used with available rawinsonde data to develop a correlation between wind shears, instability, and thunderstorm motion and development. Specific studies are recommended for best development of concepts and utilization of data from Atmospheric Variability and Atmospheric Variability Severe Storms Experiments.

Atmospheric boundary layer response to sea surface temperatures during the SEMAPHORE experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giordani, Hervé; Planton, Serge; Benech, Bruno; Kwon, Byung-Hyuk

1998-10-01

The sensitivity of the marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL) subjected to sea surface temperatures (SST) during the Structure des Echanges Mer-Atmosphere, Proprietes des Heterogeneites Oceaniques: Recherche Experimentale (SEMAPHORE) experiment in 1993 has been studied. Atmospheric analyses produced by the Action de Recherche, Petite Echelle, Grande Echelle (ARPEGE) operational model at the French meteorological weather service assimilated data sets collected between October 7 and November 17, 1993, merged with the Global Telecommunication System (GTS) data. Analyses were validated against independent data from aircraft instruments collected along a section crossing the Azores oceanic front, not assimilated into the model. The responses of the mean MABL in the aircraft cross section to changes in SST gradients of about 1°C/100 km were the presence of an atmospheric front with horizontal gradients of 1°C/100 km and an increase of the wind intensity from the cold to the warm side during an anticyclonic synoptic situation. The study of the spatiotemporal characteristics of the MABL shows that during 3 days of an anticyclonic synoptic situation the SST is remarkably stationary because it is principally controlled by the Azores ocean current, which has a timescale of about 10 days. However, the temperature and the wind in the MABL are influenced by the prevailing atmospheric conditions. The ocean does not appear to react to the surface atmospheric forcing on the timescale of 3 days, whereas the atmospheric structures are modified by local and synoptic-scale advection. The MABL response appears to be much quicker than that of the SSTs. The correlation between the wind and the thermal structure in the MABL is dominated by the ageostrophic and not by the geostrophic component. In particular, the enhancement of the wind on either side of the SST front is mainly due to the ageostrophic component. Although the surface heat fluxes are not the only cause of ageostrophy, the surface buoyancy flux Qb appears to be an important local source.

What is the role of historical anthropogenically-induced land-cover change on the surface climate of West Africa? Results from the LUCID intercomparison project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Souleymane, S.

2015-12-01

West Africa has been highlighted as a hot spot of land surface-atmosphere interactions. This study analyses the outputs of the project Land-Use and Climate, IDentification of Robust Impacts (LUCID) over West Africa. LUCID used seven atmosphere-land models with a common experimental design to explore the impacts of Land Use induced Land Cover Change (LULCC) that are robust and consistent across the climate models. Focusing the analysis on Sahel and Guinea, this study shows that, even though the seven climate models use the same atmospheric and land cover forcing, there are significant differences of West African Monsoon variability across the climate models. The magnitude of that variability differs significantly from model to model resulting two major "features": (1) atmosphere dynamics models; (2) how the land-surface functioning is parameterized in the Land surface Model, in particular regarding the evapotranspiration partitioning within the different land-cover types, as well as the role of leaf area index (LAI) in the flux calculations and how strongly the surface is coupled to the atmosphere. The major role that the models'sensitivity to land-cover perturbations plays in the resulting climate impacts of LULCC has been analysed in this study. The climate models show, however, significant differences in the magnitude and the seasonal partitioning of the temperature change. The LULCC induced cooling is directed by decreases in net shortwave radiation that reduced the available energy (QA) (related to changes in land-cover properties other than albedo, such as LAI and surface roughness), which decreases during most part of the year. The biophysical impacts of LULCC were compared to the impact of elevated greenhouse gases resulting changes in sea surface temperatures and sea ice extent (CO2SST). The results show that the surface cooling (related a decrease in QA) induced by the biophysical effects of LULCC are insignificant compared to surface warming (related an increase in QA), which is induced by the regional significance effect of CO2SST due to a small LULCC imposed. In contrast, the decrease of surface water balance resulting from LULCC effect is a similar sign to those resulting from CO2SST but the signal resulting of the biophysical effects of LULCC is stronger than the regional CO2SST impact.

Information flow in an atmospheric model and data assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoon, Young-noh

2011-12-01

Weather forecasting consists of two processes, model integration and analysis (data assimilation). During the model integration, the state estimate produced by the analysis evolves to the next cycle time according to the atmospheric model to become the background estimate. The analysis then produces a new state estimate by combining the background state estimate with new observations, and the cycle repeats. In an ensemble Kalman filter, the probability distribution of the state estimate is represented by an ensemble of sample states, and the covariance matrix is calculated using the ensemble of sample states. We perform numerical experiments on toy atmospheric models introduced by Lorenz in 2005 to study the information flow in an atmospheric model in conjunction with ensemble Kalman filtering for data assimilation. This dissertation consists of two parts. The first part of this dissertation is about the propagation of information and the use of localization in ensemble Kalman filtering. If we can perform data assimilation locally by considering the observations and the state variables only near each grid point, then we can reduce the number of ensemble members necessary to cover the probability distribution of the state estimate, reducing the computational cost for the data assimilation and the model integration. Several localized versions of the ensemble Kalman filter have been proposed. Although tests applying such schemes have proven them to be extremely promising, a full basic understanding of the rationale and limitations of localization is currently lacking. We address these issues and elucidate the role played by chaotic wave dynamics in the propagation of information and the resulting impact on forecasts. The second part of this dissertation is about ensemble regional data assimilation using joint states. Assuming that we have a global model and a regional model of higher accuracy defined in a subregion inside the global region, we propose a data assimilation scheme that produces the analyses for the global and the regional model simultaneously, considering forecast information from both models. We show that our new data assimilation scheme produces better results both in the subregion and the global region than the data assimilation scheme that produces the analyses for the global and the regional model separately.

Supervised machine learning for analysing spectra of exoplanetary atmospheres

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Márquez-Neila, Pablo; Fisher, Chloe; Sznitman, Raphael; Heng, Kevin

2018-06-01

The use of machine learning is becoming ubiquitous in astronomy1-3, but remains rare in the study of the atmospheres of exoplanets. Given the spectrum of an exoplanetary atmosphere, a multi-parameter space is swept through in real time to find the best-fit model4-6. Known as atmospheric retrieval, this technique originates in the Earth and planetary sciences7. Such methods are very time-consuming, and by necessity there is a compromise between physical and chemical realism and computational feasibility. Machine learning has previously been used to determine which molecules to include in the model, but the retrieval itself was still performed using standard methods8. Here, we report an adaptation of the `random forest' method of supervised machine learning9,10, trained on a precomputed grid of atmospheric models, which retrieves full posterior distributions of the abundances of molecules and the cloud opacity. The use of a precomputed grid allows a large part of the computational burden to be shifted offline. We demonstrate our technique on a transmission spectrum of the hot gas-giant exoplanet WASP-12b using a five-parameter model (temperature, a constant cloud opacity and the volume mixing ratios or relative abundances of molecules of water, ammonia and hydrogen cyanide)11. We obtain results consistent with the standard nested-sampling retrieval method. We also estimate the sensitivity of the measured spectrum to the model parameters, and we are able to quantify the information content of the spectrum. Our method can be straightforwardly applied using more sophisticated atmospheric models to interpret an ensemble of spectra without having to retrain the random forest.

Identifying the European fossil fuel plumes in the atmosphere over the Northeast Atlantic Region through isotopic observations and numerical modelling.

PubMed

Geels, C; Christensen, J H; Hansen, A W; Heinemeier, J; Kiilsholm, S; Larsen, N W; Larsen, S E; Pedersen, T; Sørensen, L L; Brandt, J; Frohn, L M; Djurhuus, S

2006-06-01

As part of the Danish NEAREX project the origin and variability of anthropogenic atmospheric CO(2) over the Northeast Atlantic Region (NEAR) has been studied. The project consisted of a combination of experimental and modelling activities. Local volunteers operated CO(2) sampling stations, built at University of Copenhagen, for (14)C analysis at four locations (East Denmark, Shetland Isles, Faroe Isles and Iceland). The samples were only collected during winter periods of south-easterly winds in an attempt to trace air enriched in fossil-fuel derived CO(2) due to combustion of fossil fuels within European countries. In order to study the transport and concentration fields over the region in detail, a three-dimensional Eulerian hemispheric air pollution model has been extended to include the main anthropogenic sources for atmospheric CO(2). During the project period (1998-2001) only a few episodes of transport from Central Europe towards NEAR arose, which makes the data set for the evaluation of the method sparse. The analysed samples indicate that the signal for fossil CO(2), as expected, is largest (up to 3.7+/-0.4% fossil CO(2)) at the Danish location closest to the European emissions areas and much weaker (up to approximately 1.5+/-0.6% fossil CO(2)) at the most remote location. As the anthropogenic signal is weak in the clean atmosphere over NEAR these numbers will, however, be very sensitive to the assumed background (14)CO(2) activity and the precision of the measurements. The model simulations include the interplay between the driving processes from the emission into the boundary layer and the following horizontal/vertical mixing and atmospheric transport and are used to analyse the meteorological conditions leading to the observed events of high fossil CO(2) over NEAR. This information about the history of the air masses is essential if an observed signal is to be utilised for identifying and quantifying sources for fossil CO(2).

Modeling of Isotope Fractionation in Stratospheric CO2, N2O, CH4, and O3: Investigations of Stratospheric Chemistry and Transport, Stratosphere-Troposphere Exchange, and Their Influence on Global Isotope Budgets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Boering, Kristie A.; Connell, Peter; Rotman, Douglas

2004-01-01

We investigated the isotopic fractionation of CH4 and hydrogen (H2) in the stratosphere by incorporating isotope-specific rate coefficients into the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) 2D model and comparing the model results with new observations from the NASA ER-2 aircraft (funded through a separate task under the Upper Atmosphere Research Program). The model results reveal that fractionation which occurs in the stratosphere has a significant influence on isotope compositions in the free troposphere, an important point which had previously been ignored, unrecognized or unquantified for many long-lived trace gases, including CH4 and H2 which we have focused our efforts on to date. Our analyses of the model results and new isotope observations have also been used to test how well the kinetic isotope effects are known, at least to within the uncertainties in model chemistry and transport. Overall, these results represent an important step forward in our understanding of isotope fractionation in the atmosphere and demonstrate that stratospheric isotope fractionation cannot be ignored in modeling studies which use isotope observations in the troposphere to infer the global budgets of CH4 (an important greenhouse gas) and of H2 (a gas whose atmospheric budget must be better quantified, particularly before a large human perturbation from fuel cell use is realized). Our analyses of model results and observations from the NASA ER-2 aircraft are briefly summarized separately below for CH4, H2, and H2O and for the contribution of these modeling studies to date to our understanding of isotope fractionation for N2O, CO2, and O3 as well.

Interannual rainfall variability over China in the MetUM GA6 and GC2 configurations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stephan, Claudia Christine; Klingaman, Nicholas P.; Vidale, Pier Luigi; Turner, Andrew G.; Demory, Marie-Estelle; Guo, Liang

2018-05-01

Six climate simulations of the Met Office Unified Model Global Atmosphere 6.0 and Global Coupled 2.0 configurations are evaluated against observations and reanalysis data for their ability to simulate the mean state and year-to-year variability of precipitation over China. To analyse the sensitivity to air-sea coupling and horizontal resolution, atmosphere-only and coupled integrations at atmospheric horizontal resolutions of N96, N216 and N512 (corresponding to ˜ 200, 90 and 40 km in the zonal direction at the equator, respectively) are analysed. The mean and interannual variance of seasonal precipitation are too high in all simulations over China but improve with finer resolution and coupling. Empirical orthogonal teleconnection (EOT) analysis is applied to simulated and observed precipitation to identify spatial patterns of temporally coherent interannual variability in seasonal precipitation. To connect these patterns to large-scale atmospheric and coupled air-sea processes, atmospheric and oceanic fields are regressed onto the corresponding seasonal mean time series. All simulations reproduce the observed leading pattern of interannual rainfall variability in winter, spring and autumn; the leading pattern in summer is present in all but one simulation. However, only in two simulations are the four leading patterns associated with the observed physical mechanisms. Coupled simulations capture more observed patterns of variability and associate more of them with the correct physical mechanism, compared to atmosphere-only simulations at the same resolution. However, finer resolution does not improve the fidelity of these patterns or their associated mechanisms. This shows that evaluating climate models by only geographical distribution of mean precipitation and its interannual variance is insufficient. The EOT analysis adds knowledge about coherent variability and associated mechanisms.

Atmospheric gradients from GNSS, VLBI, and DORIS analyses and from Numerical Weather Models during CONT14

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heinkelmann, Robert; Dick, Galina; Nilsson, Tobias; Soja, Benedikt; Wickert, Jens; Zus, Florian; Schuh, Harald

2015-04-01

Observations from space-geodetic techniques are nowadays increasingly used to derive atmospheric information for various commercial and scientific applications. A prominent example is the operational use of GNSS data to improve global and regional weather forecasts, which was started in 2006. Atmosphere gradients describe the azimuthal asymmetry of zenith delays. Estimates of geodetic and other parameters significantly improve when atmosphere gradients are determined in addition. Here we assess the capability of several space geodetic techniques (GNSS, VLBI, DORIS) to determine atmosphere gradients of refractivity. For this purpose we implement and compare various strategies for gradient estimation, such as different values for the temporal resolution and the corresponding parameter constraints. Applying least squares estimation the gradients are usually deterministically modelled as constants or piece-wise linear functions. In our study we compare this approach with a stochastic approach modelling atmosphere gradients as random walk processes and applying a Kalman Filter for parameter estimation. The gradients, derived from space geodetic techniques are verified by comparison with those derived from Numerical Weather Models (NWM). These model data were generated using raytracing calculations based on European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) analyses with different spatial resolutions. The investigation of the differences between the ECMWF and NCEP gradients hereby in addition allow for an empirical assessment of the quality of model gradients and how suitable the NWM data are for verification. CONT14 (2014-05-06 until 2014-05-20) is the youngest two week long continuous VLBI campaign carried out by IVS (International VLBI Service for Geodesy and Astrometry). It presents the state-of-the-art VLBI performance in terms of number of stations and number of observations and presents thus an excellent test period for comparisons with other space geodetic techniques. During the VLBI campaign CONT14 the HOBART12 and HOBART26 (Hobart, Tasmania, Australia) VLBI antennas were involved that co-locate with each other. The investigation of the gradient estimate differences from these co-located antennas allows for a valuable empirical quality assessment. Another quality criterion for gradient estimates are the differences of parameters at the borders of adjacent 24h-sessions. Both are investigated in our study.

Atmospheric Modeling of Cool Giant and Supergiant Stars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Linsky, Jeffrey L.

1984-07-01

We propose to continue our collaborative program of obtaining and analysing high dispersion SWP spectra of cool stars. We request high dispersion, short wavelength IUE spectra of the stars alpha Tau (K5III), gamma Cru (M3III), epsilon Peg (K2Ib) and beta Cam (G0Ib) with exposure times of 16 hours or more. These spectra will provide measurements of line profiles, widths and Doppler shifts in addition to density-sensitive and opacity-sensitive line ratios. Models of chromospheric and transition region (where present) structure will be calculated by a combination of emission measure analysis, line opacity/probability of escape methods and model atmosphere calculations for optically thick resonance lines such as MgII h and k, including partial redistribution radiative transfer. These models will be used to investigate the atmospheric energy balance and the nature of energy transport and nonradiative energy deposition processes. The results will be considered in relation to stellar evolution and compared with the chromospheric properties of other stars previously studied by the authors and their collaborators.

Hot HB Stars in Globular Clusters - Physical Parameters and Consequences for Theory. VI. The Second Parameter Pair M3 and M13

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moehler, S.; Landsman, W. B.; Sweigart, A. V.; Grundahl, F.

2002-01-01

We present the results of spectroscopic analyses of hot horizontal branch (HB) stars in M13 and M3, which form a famous second parameter pair. From the spectra we derived - for the first time in M13 - atmospheric parameters (effective temperature and surface gravity) as well as abundances of helium, magnesium, and iron. Consistent with analyses of hot HB stars in other globular clusters we find evidence for helium depletion and iron enrichment in stars hotter than about 12,000 K in both M3 and M13. Accounting for the iron enrichment substantially improves the agreement with canonical evolutionary models, although the derived gravities and masses are still somewhat too low. This remaining discrepancy may be an indication that scaled-solar metal-rich model atmospheres do not adequately represent the highly non-solar abundance ratios found in blue HB stars with radiative levitation. We discuss the effects of an enhancement in the envelope helium abundance on the atmospheric parameters of the blue HB stars, as might be caused by deep mixing on the red giant branch or primordial pollution from an earlier generation of intermediate mass asymptotic giant branch stars.

Contributions of the atmosphere-land and ocean-sea ice model components to the tropical Atlantic SST bias in CESM1

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Z.; Lee, S. K.; Wang, C.; Kirtman, B. P.; Qiao, F.

2016-02-01

In order to identify and quantify intrinsic errors in the atmosphere-land and ocean-sea ice model components of the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) and their contributions to the tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) bias in CESM1, we propose a new method of diagnosis and apply it to a set of CESM1 simulations. Our analyses of the model simulations indicate that both the atmosphere-land and ocean-sea ice model components of CESM1 contain large errors in the tropical Atlantic. When the two model components are fully coupled, the intrinsic errors in the two components emerge quickly within a year with strong seasonality in their growth rates. In particular, the ocean-sea ice model contributes significantly in forcing the eastern equatorial Atlantic warm SST bias in early boreal summer. Further analysis shows that the upper thermocline water underneath the eastern equatorial Atlantic surface mixed layer is too warm in a stand-alone ocean-sea ice simulation of CESM1 forced with observed surface flux fields, suggesting that the mixed layer cooling associated with the entrainment of upper thermocline water is too weak in early boreal summer. Therefore, although we acknowledge the potential importance of the westerly wind bias in the western equatorial Atlantic and the low-level stratus cloud bias in the southeastern tropical Atlantic, both of which originate from the atmosphere-land model, we emphasize here that solving those problems in the atmosphere-land model alone does not resolve the equatorial Atlantic warm bias in CESM1.

Improvements and limitations on understanding of atmospheric processes of Fukushima Daiichi NPS radioactivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamazawa, Hiromi; Terasaka, Yuta; Mizutani, Kenta; Sugiura, Hiroki; Hirao, Shigekazu

2017-04-01

Understanding on the release of radioactivity into the atmosphere from the accidental units of Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station have been improved owing to recent analyses of atmospheric concentrations of radionuclide. Our analysis of gamma-ray spectra from monitoring posts located about 100 km to the south of the site revealed temporal changes of atmospheric concentrations of several key nuclides including noble gas Xe-133 in addition to radio-iodine and cesium nuclides, including I-131 and Cs-137, at a 10 minute interval. By using the atmospheric concentration data, in combination with an inverse atmospheric transport modelling with a Bayesian statistical method, a modification was proposed for the widely used Katata's source term. A source term for Xe-133 was also proposed. Although the atmospheric concentration data and the source terms help us understand the atmospheric transport processes of radionuclides, they still have significant uncertainty due to limitations in availability of the concentration data. There still remain limitations in the atmospheric transport modeling. The largest uncertainty in the model is in the deposition processes. It had been pointed out that, in the 100 km range from the accidental site, there were locations at which the ambient dose rate significantly increased a few hours before precipitation detectors recorded the start of rain. According to our analysis, the dose rate increase was not directly caused by the air-borne radioactivity but by deposition. This phenomenon can be attributed to a deposition process in which evaporating precipitation enhances efficiency of deposition even in a case where no precipitation is observed at ground level.

Global scale diagnoses of FGGE data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Paegle, J.

1985-01-01

Descriptive global scale diagnoses of the First Global Atmospheric Research Experiment SOP-1 analyses were made and compared against controlled, real data integrations of the Goddard Laboratory of Atmospheric Science (GLAS) general circulation model (GCM) as well as other data sets. The effects of critical latitudes were studied; the influence of tropical wind data and latent heating upon the GLAS GCM was diagnosed; planetary wave structure on various time scales from the diurnal to the monthly was studied; and the GLAS analyses were compared with other analyses. Short term controlled GLAS GCM integrations show that: (1) the inclusion of tropical wind data in real data integrations has an important influence in the mid-latitude prediction in both hemispheres; and (2) the tropical divergent wind reacts almost immediately to alteration of the tropical latent heating. The presence or absence of zonally averaged easterlies depends strongly upon the presence of tropical latent heating.

Analysing the teleconnection systems affecting the climate of the Carpathian Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kristóf, Erzsébet; Bartholy, Judit; Pongrácz, Rita

2017-04-01

Nowadays, the increase of the global average near-surface air temperature is unequivocal. Atmospheric low-frequency variabilities have substantial impacts on climate variables such as air temperature and precipitation. Therefore, assessing their effects is essential to improve global and regional climate model simulations for the 21st century. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is one of the best-known atmospheric teleconnection patterns affecting the Carpathian Basin in Central Europe. Besides NAO, we aim to analyse other interannual-to-decadal teleconnection patterns, which might have significant impacts on the Carpathian Basin, namely, the East Atlantic/West Russia pattern, the Scandinavian pattern, the Mediterranean Oscillation, and the North-Sea Caspian Pattern. For this purpose primarily the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts' (ECMWF) ERA-20C atmospheric reanalysis dataset and multivariate statistical methods are used. The indices of each teleconnection pattern and their correlations with temperature and precipitation will be calculated for the period of 1961-1990. On the basis of these data first the long range (i. e. seasonal and/or annual scale) forecast ability is evaluated. Then, we aim to calculate the same indices of the relevant teleconnection patterns for the historical and future simulations of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models and compare them against each other using statistical methods. Our ultimate goal is to examine all available CMIP5 models and evaluate their abilities to reproduce the selected teleconnection systems. Thus, climate predictions for the 21st century for the Carpathian Basin may be improved using the best-performing models among all CMIP5 model simulations.

Spin-up simulation behaviors in a climate model to build a basement of long-time simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, J.; Xue, Y.; De Sales, F.

2015-12-01

It is essential to develop start-up information when conducting long-time climate simulation. In case that the initial condition is already available from the previous simulation of same type model this does not necessary; however, if not, model needs spin-up simulation to have adjusted and balanced initial condition with the model climatology. Otherwise, a severe spin may take several years. Some of model variables such as deep soil temperature fields and temperature in ocean deep layers in initial fields would affect model's further long-time simulation due to their long residual memories. To investigate the important factor for spin-up simulation in producing an atmospheric initial condition, we had conducted two different spin-up simulations when no atmospheric condition is available from exist datasets. One simulation employed atmospheric global circulation model (AGCM), namely Global Forecast System (GFS) of National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), while the other employed atmosphere-ocean coupled global circulation model (CGCM), namely Climate Forecast System (CFS) of NCEP. Both models share the atmospheric modeling part and only difference is in applying of ocean model coupling, which is conducted by Modular Ocean Model version 4 (MOM4) of Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) in CFS. During a decade of spin-up simulation, prescribed sea-surface temperature (SST) fields of target year is forced to the GFS daily basis, while CFS digested only first time step ocean condition and freely iterated for the rest of the period. Both models were forced by CO2 condition and solar constant given from the target year. Our analyses of spin-up simulation results indicate that freely conducted interaction between the ocean and the atmosphere is more helpful to produce the initial condition for the target year rather than produced by fixed SST forcing. Since the GFS used prescribed forcing exactly given from the target year, this result is unexpected. The detail analysis will be discussed in this presentation.

Aridity under conditions of increased CO2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Greve, Peter; Roderick, Micheal L.; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

2016-04-01

A string of recent of studies led to the wide-held assumption that aridity will increase under conditions of increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations and associated global warming. Such results generally build upon analyses of changes in the 'aridity index' (the ratio of potential evaporation to precipitation) and can be described as a direct thermodynamic effect on atmospheric water demand due to increasing temperatures. However, there is widespread evidence that contradicts the 'warmer is more arid' interpretation, leading to the 'global aridity paradox' (Roderick et al. 2015, WRR). Here we provide a comprehensive assessment of modeled changes in a broad set of dryness metrics (primarily based on a range of measures of water availability) over a large range of realistic atmospheric CO2 concentrations. We use an ensemble of simulations from of state-of-the-art climate models to analyse both equilibrium climate experiments and transient historical simulations and future projections. Our results show that dryness is, under conditions of increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations and related global warming, generally decreasing at global scales. At regional scales we do, however, identify areas that undergo changes towards drier conditions, located primarily in subtropical climate regions and the Amazon Basin. Nonetheless, the majority of regions, especially in tropical and mid- to northern high latitudes areas, display wetting conditions in a warming world. Our results contradict previous findings and highlight the need to comprehensively assess all aspects of changes in hydroclimatological conditions at the land surface. Roderick, M. L., P. Greve, and G. D. Farquhar (2015), On the assessment of aridity with changes in atmospheric CO2, Water Resour. Res., 51, 5450-5463

Atmospheric moisture supersaturatons in the near-surface atmosphere of Dome C, Antarctic Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Genthon, Christophe; Piard, Luc; Vignon, Etienne; Madeleine, Jean-Baptiste; Casado, Mathieu; Gallée, Hubert

2017-04-01

Moisture supersaturations occur at the top of the troposphere where cirrus clouds form, but is comparatively unusual near the surface where the air is generally warmer and laden with liquid and/or ice condensation nuclei. One exception is the surface of the high antarctic plateau. This study presents one year of atmospheric moisture measurement at the surface of Dome C on the East Antarctic plateau. The measurements are obtained using commercial hygrometry sensors adapted to allow air sampling without affecting the moisture content even in case of supersaturation. Supersaturation is found to be very frequent. Common unadapted hygrometry sensors generally fail to report supersaturation, and most reports of atmospheric moisture on the antarctic plateau are thus likely biased low. The measurements are compared with results from 2 models with cold microphysics parametrizations: the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts through its operational analyses, and the Model Atmosphérique Régional. As in the observations, supersaturation is frequent in the models but the statistical distribution differs both between models and observations and between the 2 models, leaving much room for model improvement. The representation of supersaturations is not critical for the estimations of surface sublimation since they are more frequent as temperature is lower i.e. as moisture quantities and water fluxes are small. However, ignoring near-surface supersaturation may be a more serious issue for the modeling of fog and when considering water isotopes, a tracer of phase change and temperature, largely used to reconstruct past climates and environments from ice cores. Because observations are easier in the surface atmosphere, longer and more continuous in situ observation series of atmospheric supersaturation can be obtained than higher in the atmosphere to test parameterizations of cold microphysics, such as those used in the formation of high altitude cirrus clouds in meteorological models.

Estimation of shortwave direct aerosol radiative forcing at four locations on the Indo-Gangetic plains: Model results and ground measurement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bibi, Humera; Alam, Khan; Bibi, Samina

2017-08-01

This study provides observational results of aerosol optical and radiative characteristics over four locations in IGP. Spectral variation of Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD), Single Scattering Albedo (SSA) and Asymmetry Parameter (AP) were analysed using AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) data. The analysis revealed that coarse particles were dominant in summer and pre-monsoon, while fine particles were more pronounced in winter and post-monsoon. Furthermore, the spatio-temporal variations of Shortwave Direct Aerosol Radiative Forcing (SDARF) and Shortwave Direct Aerosol Radiative Forcing Efficiency (SDARFE) at the Top Of Atmosphere (TOA), SURface (SUR) and within ATMosphere (ATM) were calculated using SBDART model. The atmospheric Heating Rate (HR) associated with SDARFATM were also computed. It was observed that the monthly averaged SDARFTOA and SDARFSUR were found to be negative leading to positive SDARFATM during all the months over all sites. The increments in net atmospheric forcing lead to maximum HR in November-December and May. The seasonal analysis of SDARF revealed that SDARFTOA and SDARFSUR were negative during all seasons. The SW atmospheric absorption translates to highest atmospheric HR during summer over Karachi and during pre-monsoon over Lahore, Jaipur and Kanpur. Like SDARF, the monthly and seasonal variations of SDARFETOA and SDARFESUR were found to be negative, resulting in positive atmospheric forcing. Additionally, to compare the model estimated forcing against AERONET derived forcing, the regression analysis of AERONET-SBDART forcing were carried out. It was observed that SDARF at SUR and TOA showed relatively higher correlation over Lahore, moderate over Jaipur and Kanpur and lower over Karachi. Finally, the analysis of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model revealed that air masses were arriving from multiple source locations.

Real-Time Ocean Prediction System for the East Coast of India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Warrior, H. V.

2016-02-01

The primary objective of the research work reported in this abstract was to develop a Realtime Environmental model for Ocean Dispersion and Impact (as part of an already in-place Decision Support System) for the purpose of radiological safety for the area along Kalpakkam (East Indian) coast. This system involves combining real-time ocean observations with numerical models of ocean processes to provide hindcasts, nowcasts and forecasts of currents, tides and waves. In this work we present the development of an Automated Coupled Atmospheric - Ocean Model (we call it IIT-CAOM) used to forecast the sea surface currents, sea surface temperature (SST) and salinity etc of the Bay of Bengal region under the influence of transient and unsteady atmospheric conditions. This method uses a coupling of Atmosphere and Ocean model. The models used here are the WRF for atmospheric simulations and POM for the ocean counterpart. It has a 3 km X 3 km resolution. This Coupled Model uses GFS (Global Forecast System) Data or FNL (Final Analyses) Data as initial conditions for jump-starting the atmospheric model. The Atmospheric model is run first thus extracting air temperature, wind speed and relative humidity. The heat flux subroutine computes the net heat flux, using above mentioned parameters data. The net heat flux feeds to the ocean model by simply adding net heat flux subroutine to the ocean model code without changing the model original structure. The online forecast of the IIT-CAOM is currently available in the web. The whole system has been automized and runs without any more manual support. The IIT-CAOM simulations have been carried out for Kalpakkam region, which is located on the East coast of India, about 70 km south of Chennai in Tamilnadu State and a three day forecast of sea surface currents, sea surface temperature (SST) and salinity, etc have been obtained.

The Use of Indirect Estimates of Soil Moisture to Initialize Coupled Models and its Impact on Short-Term and Seasonal Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lapenta, William M.; Crosson, William; Dembek, Scott; Lakhtakia, Mercedes

1998-01-01

It is well known that soil moisture is a characteristic of the land surface that strongly affects the partitioning of outgoing radiation into sensible and latent heat which significantly impacts both weather and climate. Detailed land surface schemes are now being coupled to mesoscale atmospheric models in order to represent the effect of soil moisture upon atmospheric simulations. However, there is little direct soil moisture data available to initialize these models on regional to continental scales. As a result, a Soil Hydrology Model (SHM) is currently being used to generate an indirect estimate of the soil moisture conditions over the continental United States at a grid resolution of 36 Km on a daily basis since 8 May 1995. The SHM is forced by analyses of atmospheric observations including precipitation and contains detailed information on slope soil and landcover characteristics.The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the utility of initializing a detailed coupled model with the soil moisture data produced by SHM.

Impact of abrupt deglacial climate change on tropical Atlantic subsurface temperatures

PubMed Central

Schmidt, Matthew W.; Chang, Ping; Hertzberg, Jennifer E.; Them, Theodore R.; Ji, Link; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.

2012-01-01

Both instrumental data analyses and coupled ocean-atmosphere models indicate that Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) variability is tightly linked to abrupt tropical North Atlantic (TNA) climate change through both atmospheric and oceanic processes. Although a slowdown of AMOC results in an atmospheric-induced surface cooling in the entire TNA, the subsurface experiences an even larger warming because of rapid reorganizations of ocean circulation patterns at intermediate water depths. Here, we reconstruct high-resolution temperature records using oxygen isotope values and Mg/Ca ratios in both surface- and subthermocline-dwelling planktonic foraminifera from a sediment core located in the TNA over the last 22 ky. Our results show significant changes in the vertical thermal gradient of the upper water column, with the warmest subsurface temperatures of the last deglacial transition corresponding to the onset of the Younger Dryas. Furthermore, we present new analyses of a climate model simulation forced with freshwater discharge into the North Atlantic under Last Glacial Maximum forcings and boundary conditions that reveal a maximum subsurface warming in the vicinity of the core site and a vertical thermal gradient change at the onset of AMOC weakening, consistent with the reconstructed record. Together, our proxy reconstructions and modeling results provide convincing evidence for a subsurface oceanic teleconnection linking high-latitude North Atlantic climate to the tropical Atlantic during periods of reduced AMOC across the last deglacial transition. PMID:22908256

Impact of abrupt deglacial climate change on tropical Atlantic subsurface temperatures.

PubMed

Schmidt, Matthew W; Chang, Ping; Hertzberg, Jennifer E; Them, Theodore R; Ji, Link; J, Link; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L

2012-09-04

Both instrumental data analyses and coupled ocean-atmosphere models indicate that Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) variability is tightly linked to abrupt tropical North Atlantic (TNA) climate change through both atmospheric and oceanic processes. Although a slowdown of AMOC results in an atmospheric-induced surface cooling in the entire TNA, the subsurface experiences an even larger warming because of rapid reorganizations of ocean circulation patterns at intermediate water depths. Here, we reconstruct high-resolution temperature records using oxygen isotope values and Mg/Ca ratios in both surface- and subthermocline-dwelling planktonic foraminifera from a sediment core located in the TNA over the last 22 ky. Our results show significant changes in the vertical thermal gradient of the upper water column, with the warmest subsurface temperatures of the last deglacial transition corresponding to the onset of the Younger Dryas. Furthermore, we present new analyses of a climate model simulation forced with freshwater discharge into the North Atlantic under Last Glacial Maximum forcings and boundary conditions that reveal a maximum subsurface warming in the vicinity of the core site and a vertical thermal gradient change at the onset of AMOC weakening, consistent with the reconstructed record. Together, our proxy reconstructions and modeling results provide convincing evidence for a subsurface oceanic teleconnection linking high-latitude North Atlantic climate to the tropical Atlantic during periods of reduced AMOC across the last deglacial transition.

Long and short-term atmospheric radiation analyses based on coupled measurements at high altitude remote stations and extensive air shower modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hubert, G.; Federico, C. A.; Pazianotto, M. T.; Gonzales, O. L.

2016-02-01

In this paper are described the ACROPOL and OPD high-altitude stations devoted to characterize the atmospheric radiation fields. The ACROPOL platform, located at the summit of the Pic du Midi in the French Pyrenees at 2885 m above sea level, exploits since May 2011 some scientific equipment, including a BSS neutron spectrometer, detectors based on semiconductor and scintillators. In the framework of a IEAv and ONERA collaboration, a second neutron spectrometer was simultaneously exploited since February 2015 at the summit of the Pico dos Dias in Brazil at 1864 m above the sea level. The both high station platforms allow for investigating the long period dynamics to analyze the spectral variation of cosmic-ray- induced neutron and effects of local and seasonal changes, but also the short term dynamics during solar flare events. This paper presents long and short-term analyses, including measurement and modeling investigations considering the both high altitude stations data. The modeling approach, based on ATMORAD computational platform, was used to link the both station measurements.

Trajectory Simulation of Meteors Assuming Mass Loss and Fragmentation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Allen, Gary A., Jr.; Prabhu, Dinesh K.; Saunders, David A

2015-01-01

Program used to simulate atmospheric flight trajectories of entry capsules [1] Includes models of atmospheres of different planetary destinations - Earth, Mars, Venus, Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, Titan, ... Solves 3-­-degrees of freedom (3DoF) equations for a single body treated as a point mass. Also supports 6-DoF trajectory simula4on and Monte Carlo analyses. Uses Fehlberg-­-Runge-­-Kuna (4th-5th order) time integraion with automaic step size control. Includes rotating spheroidal planet with gravitational field having a J2 harmonic. Includes a variety of engineering aerodynamic and heat flux models. Capable of specifying events - heatshield jettison, parachute deployment, etc. - at predefined altitudes or Mach number. Has material thermal response models of typical aerospace materials integrated.

Historical and future perspectives of global soil carbon response to climate and land-use changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eglin, T.; Ciais, P.; Piao, S. L.; Barre, P.; Bellassen, V.; Cadule, P.; Chenu, C.; Gasser, T.; Koven, C.; Reichstein, M.; Smith, P.

2010-11-01

ABSTRACT In this paper, we attempt to analyse the respective influences of land-use and climate changes on the global and regional balances of soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks. Two time periods are analysed: the historical period 1901-2000 and the period 2000-2100. The historical period is analysed using a synthesis of published data as well as new global and regional model simulations, and the future is analysed using models only. Historical land cover changes have resulted globally in SOC release into the atmosphere. This human induced SOC decrease was nearly balanced by the net SOC increase due to higher CO2 and rainfall. Mechanization of agriculture after the 1950s has accelerated SOC losses in croplands, whereas development of carbon-sequestering practices over the past decades may have limited SOC loss from arable soils. In some regions (Europe, China and USA), croplands are currently estimated to be either a small C sink or a small source, but not a large source of CO2 to the atmosphere. In the future, according to terrestrial biosphere and climate models projections, both climate and land cover changes might cause a net SOC loss, particularly in tropical regions. The timing, magnitude, and regional distribution of future SOC changes are all highly uncertain. Reducing this uncertainty requires improving future anthropogenic CO2 emissions and land-use scenarios and better understanding of biogeochemical processes that control SOC turnover, for both managed and un-managed ecosystems.

Uncertainty in Analyzed Water and Energy Budgets at Continental Scales

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bosilovich, Michael G.; Robertson, F. R.; Mocko, D.; Chen, J.

2011-01-01

Operational analyses and retrospective-analyses provide all the physical terms of mater and energy budgets, guided by the assimilation of atmospheric observations. However, there is significant reliance on the numerical models, and so, uncertainty in the budget terms is always present. Here, we use a recently developed data set consisting of a mix of 10 analyses (both operational and retrospective) to quantify the uncertainty of analyzed water and energy budget terms for GEWEX continental-scale regions, following the evaluation of Dr. John Roads using individual reanalyses data sets.

BD-22deg3467, a DAO-type Star Exciting the Nebula Abell 35

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ziegler, M.; Rauch, T.; Werner, K.; Koppen, J.; Kruk, J. W.

2013-01-01

Spectral analyses of hot, compact stars with non-local thermodynamical equilibrium (NLTE) model-atmosphere techniques allow the precise determination of photospheric parameters such as the effective temperature (T(sub eff)), the surface gravity (log g), and the chemical composition. The derived photospheric metal abundances are crucial constraints for stellar evolutionary theory. Aims. Previous spectral analyses of the exciting star of the nebula A35, BD-22deg3467, were based on He+C+N+O+Si+Fe models only. For our analysis, we use state-of-the-art fully metal-line blanketed NLTE model atmospheres that consider opacities of 23 elements from hydrogen to nickel. We aim to identify all observed lines in the ultraviolet (UV) spectrum of BD-22deg3467 and to determine the abundances of the respective species precisely. Methods. For the analysis of high-resolution and high signal-to-noise ratio (S/N) far-ultraviolet (FUSE) and UV (HST/STIS) observations, we combined stellar-atmosphere models and interstellar line-absorption models to fully reproduce the entire observed UV spectrum. Results. The best agreement with the UV observation of BD-22deg3467 is achieved at T(sub eff) = 80 +/- 10 kK and log g = 7.2 +/- 0.3. While T(sub eff) of previous analyses is verified, log g is significantly lower. We re-analyzed lines of silicon and iron (1/100 and about solar abundances, respectively) and for the first time in this star identified argon, chromium, manganese, cobalt, and nickel and determined abundances of 12, 70, 35, 150, and 5 times solar, respectively. Our results partially agree with predictions of diffusion models for DA-type white dwarfs. A combination of photospheric and interstellar line-absorption models reproduces more than 90% of the observed absorption features. The stellar mass is M approx. 0.48 Solar Mass. Conclusions. BD.22.3467 may not have been massive enough to ascend the asymptotic giant branch and may have evolved directly from the extended horizontal branch to the white dwarf state. This would explain why it is not surrounded by a planetary nebula. However, the star, ionizes the ambient interstellar matter, mimicking a planetary nebula.

Stationarity of the Tropical Pacific Teleconnection to North America in CMIP5 PMIP3 Model Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Coats, Sloan; Smerdon, Jason E.; Cook, Benjamin I.; Seager, Richard

2013-01-01

The temporal stationarity of the teleconnection between the tropical Pacific Ocean and North America (NA) is analyzed in atmosphere-only, and coupled last-millennium, historical, and control runs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 data archive. The teleconnection, defined as the correlation between December-January-February (DJF) tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and DJF 200 mb geopotential height, is found to be nonstationary on multidecadal timescales. There are significant changes in the spatial features of the teleconnection over NA in continuous 56-year segments of the last millennium and control simulations. Analysis of atmosphere-only simulations forced with observed SSTs indicates that atmospheric noise cannot account for the temporal variability of the teleconnection, which instead is likely explained by the strength of, and multidecadal changes in, tropical Pacific Ocean variability. These results have implications for teleconnection-based analyses of model fidelity in simulating precipitation, as well as any reconstruction and forecasting efforts that assume stationarity of the observed teleconnection.

Space shuttle simulation model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tatom, F. B.; Smith, S. R.

1980-01-01

The effects of atmospheric turbulence in both horizontal and near horizontal flight, during the return of the space shuttle, are important for determining design, control, and 'pilot-in-the-loop' effects. A nonrecursive model (based on von Karman spectra) for atmospheric turbulence along the flight path of the shuttle orbiter was developed which provides for simulation of instantaneous vertical and horizontal gusts at the vehicle center-of-gravity, and also for simulation of instantaneous gust gradients. Based on this model, the time series for both gusts and gust gradients were generated and stored on a series of magnetic tapes which are entitled shuttle simulation turbulence tapes (SSTT). The time series are designed to represent atmospheric turbulence from ground level to an altitude of 10,000 meters. The turbulence generation procedure is described as well as the results of validating the simulated turbulence. Conclusions and recommendations are presented and references cited. The tabulated one dimensional von Karman spectra and the results of spectral and statistical analyses of the SSTT are contained in the appendix.

Demonstrating the Operational Value of Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) Retrieved Profiles in the Pre-Convective Environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kozlowski, Danielle M.; Zavodsky, T.; Jedloved, Gary J.

2011-01-01

The Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center (SPoRT) is a collaborative partnership between NASA and operational forecasting partners, including a number of National Weather Service offices. SPoRT provides real-time NASA products and capabilities to its partners to address specific operational forecast challenges. One operational forecast challenge is forecasting convective weather in data-void regions such as large bodies of water (e.g. Gulf of Mexico). To address this forecast challenge, SPoRT produces a twice-daily three-dimensional analysis that blends a model first-guess from the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model with retrieved profiles from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) -- a hyperspectral sounding instrument aboard NASA's Aqua satellite that provides temperature and moisture profiles of the atmosphere. AIRS profiles are unique in that they give a three dimensional view of the atmosphere that is not available through the current rawinsonde network. AIRS has two overpass swaths across North America each day, one valid in the 0700-0900 UTC timeframe and the other in the 1900-2100 UTC timeframe. This is helpful because the rawinsonde network only has data from 0000 UTC and 1200 UTC at specific land-based locations. Comparing the AIRS analysis product with control analyses that include no AIRS data demonstrates the value of the retrieved profiles to situational awareness for the pre-convective (and convective) environment. In an attempt to verify that the AIRS analysis was a good representation of the vertical structure of the atmosphere, both the AIRS and control analyses are compared to a Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) analysis used by operational forecasters. Using guidance from operational forecasters, convective available potential energy (CAPE) was determined to be a vital variable in making convective forecasts and is used herein to demonstrate the utility of the AIRS profiles in changing the vertical thermodynamic structure of the atmosphere in the pre-convective and convective environment. CAPE is an important metric because of it is a quantitative measure of atmospheric stability, which is necessary information when forecasting for convective weather. Case studies from the summer of 2010 were examined, and most impact from the AIRS retrieved profiles occurred over the data-void Gulf of Mexico with fields of convective potential closer to the RUC than the CNTL. Mixed results were found when AIRS retrieved profiles were used over land, so more cases need to be examined to determine whether AIRS would be an effective tool over land. Additional analyses of problematic convective forecasts over the Gulf Coast will be needed to determine the operational impact of AIRS. SPoRT eventually plans to transition the AIRS product to select Weather Forecast Office (WFO) partners, pending the outcome of these additional analyses.

Moisture Forecast Bias Correction in GEOS DAS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dee, D.

1999-01-01

Data assimilation methods rely on numerous assumptions about the errors involved in measuring and forecasting atmospheric fields. One of the more disturbing of these is that short-term model forecasts are assumed to be unbiased. In case of atmospheric moisture, for example, observational evidence shows that the systematic component of errors in forecasts and analyses is often of the same order of magnitude as the random component. we have implemented a sequential algorithm for estimating forecast moisture bias from rawinsonde data in the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS DAS). The algorithm is designed to remove the systematic component of analysis errors and can be easily incorporated in an existing statistical data assimilation system. We will present results of initial experiments that show a significant reduction of bias in the GEOS DAS moisture analyses.

Spatial and Temporal Variability of Surface Energy Fluxes During Autumn Ice Advance: Observations and Model Validation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Persson, O. P. G.; Blomquist, B.; Grachev, A. A.; Guest, P. S.; Stammerjohn, S. E.; Solomon, A.; Cox, C. J.; Capotondi, A.; Fairall, C. W.; Intrieri, J. M.

2016-12-01

From Oct 4 to Nov 5, 2015, the Office of Naval Research - sponsored Sea State cruise in the Beaufort Sea with the new National Science Foundation R/V Sikuliaq obtained extensive in-situ and remote sensing observations of the lower troposphere, the advancing sea ice, wave state, and upper ocean conditions. In addition, a coupled atmosphere, sea ice, upper-ocean model, based on the RASM model, was run at NOAA/PSD in a hindcast mode for this same time period, providing a 10-day simulation of the atmosphere/ice/ocean evolution. Surface energy fluxes quantitatively represent the air-ice, air-ocean, and ice-ocean interaction processes, determining the cooling (warming) rate of the upper ocean and the growth (melting) rate of sea ice. These fluxes also impact the stratification of the lower troposphere and the upper ocean. In this presentation, both direct and indirect measurements of the energy fluxes during Sea State will be used to explore the spatial and temporal variability of these fluxes and the impacts of this variability on the upper ocean, ice, and lower atmosphere during the autumn ice advance. Analyses have suggested that these fluxes are impacted by atmospheric synoptic evolution, proximity to existing ice, ice-relative wind direction, ice thickness and snow depth. In turn, these fluxes impact upper-ocean heat loss and timing of ice formation, as well as stability in the lower troposphere and upper ocean, and hence heat transport to the free troposphere and ocean mixed-layer. Therefore, the atmospheric structure over the advancing first-year ice differs from that over the nearby open water. Finally, these observational analyses will be used to provide a preliminary validation of the spatial and temporal variability of the surface energy fluxes and the associated lower-tropospheric and upper-ocean structures in the simulations.

Assessment of possible airborne impact from nuclear risk sites - Part II: probabilistic analysis of atmospheric transport patterns in Euro-Arctic region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahura, A. G.; Baklanov, A. A.

2003-10-01

The probabilistic analysis of atmospheric transport patterns from most important nuclear risk sites in the Euro-Arctic region is performed employing the methodology developed within the "Arctic Risk" Project of the NARP Programme (Baklanov and Mahura, 2003). The risk sites are the nuclear power plants in the Northwest Russia, Finland, Sweden, Lithuania, United Kingdom, and Germany as well as the Novaya Zemlya test site of Russia. The geographical regions of interest are the Northern and Central European countries and Northwest Russia. In this study, the employed research tools are the trajectory model to calculate a multiyear dataset of forward trajectories that originated over the risk site locations, and a set of statistical methods (including exploratory, cluster, and probability fields analyses) for analysis of trajectory modelling results. The probabilistic analyses of trajectory modelling results for eleven sites are presented as a set of various indicators of the risk sites possible impact on geographical regions and countries of interest. The nuclear risk site possible impact (on a particular geographical region, territory, country, site, etc.) due to atmospheric transport from the site after hypothetical accidental release of radioactivity can be properly estimated based on a combined interpretation of the indicators (simple characteristics, atmospheric transport pathways, airflow and fast transport probability fields, maximum reaching distance and maximum possible impact zone, typical transport time and precipitation factor fields) for different time periods (annual, seasonal, and monthly) for any selected site (both separately for each site or grouped for several sites) in the Euro-Arctic region. Such estimation could be the useful input information for the decision-making process, risk assessment, and planning of emergency response systems for sites of nuclear, chemical, and biological danger.

The Met Office Coupled Atmosphere/Land/Ocean/Sea-Ice Data Assimilation System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lea, Daniel; Mirouze, Isabelle; King, Robert; Martin, Matthew; Hines, Adrian

2015-04-01

The Met Office has developed a weakly-coupled data assimilation (DA) system using the global coupled model HadGEM3 (Hadley Centre Global Environment Model, version 3). At present the analysis from separate ocean and atmosphere DA systems are combined to produced coupled forecasts. The aim of coupled DA is to produce a more consistent analysis for coupled forecasts which may lead to less initialisation shock and improved forecast performance. The HadGEM3 coupled model combines the atmospheric model UM (Unified Model) at 60 km horizontal resolution on 85 vertical levels, the ocean model NEMO (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean) at 25 km (at the equator) horizontal resolution on 75 vertical levels, and the sea-ice model CICE at the same resolution as NEMO. The atmosphere and the ocean/sea-ice fields are coupled every 1-hour using the OASIS coupler. The coupled model is corrected using two separate 6-hour window data assimilation systems: a 4D-Var for the atmosphere with associated soil moisture content nudging and snow analysis schemes on the one hand, and a 3D-Var FGAT for the ocean and sea-ice on the other hand. The background information in the DA systems comes from a previous 6-hour forecast of the coupled model. To isolate the impact of the coupled DA, 13-month experiments have been carried out, including 1) a full atmosphere/land/ocean/sea-ice coupled DA run, 2) an atmosphere-only run forced by OSTIA SSTs and sea-ice with atmosphere and land DA, and 3) an ocean-only run forced by atmospheric fields from run 2 with ocean and sea-ice DA. In addition, 5-day and 10-day forecast runs, have been produced from initial conditions generated by either run 1 or a combination of runs 2 and 3. The different results have been compared to each other and, whenever possible, to other references such as the Met Office atmosphere and ocean operational analyses or the OSTIA SST data. The performance of the coupled DA is similar to the existing separate ocean and atmosphere DA systems. This is despite the fact that the assimilation error covariances have not yet been tuned for coupled DA. In addition, the coupled model also exhibits some biases which do not affect the uncoupled models. An example is precipitation and run off errors affecting the ocean salinity. This of course impacts the performance of the ocean data assimilation. This does, however, highlight a particular benefit of data assimilation in that it can help to identify short term model biases by using, for example, the differences between the observations and model background (innovations) and the mean increments. Coupled DA has the distinct advantage that this gives direct information about the coupled model short term biases. By identifying the biases and developing solutions this will improve the short range coupled forecasts, and may also improve the coupled model on climate timescales.

Climatological Impact of Atmospheric River Based on NARCCAP and DRI-RCM Datasets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mejia, J. F.; Perryman, N. M.

2012-12-01

This study evaluates spatial responses of extreme precipitation environments, typically associated with Atmospheric River events, using Regional Climate Model (RCM) output from NARCCAP dataset (50km grid size) and the Desert Research Institute-RCM simulations (36 and 12 km grid size). For this study, a pattern-detection algorithm was developed to characterize Atmospheric Rivers (ARs)-like features from climate models. Topological analysis of the enhanced elongated moisture flux (500-300hPa; daily means) cores is used to objectively characterize such AR features in two distinct groups: (i) zonal, north Pacific ARs, and (ii) subtropical ARs, also known as "Pineapple Express" events. We computed the climatological responses of the different RCMs upon these two AR groups, from which intricate differences among RCMs stand out. This study presents these climatological responses from historical and scenario driven simulations, as well as implications for precipitation extreme-value analyses.

Atmospheric Transport Modelling and Radionuclide Analysis for the NPE 2015 scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ross, J. Ole; Bollhöfer, Andreas; Heidmann, Verena; Krais, Roman; Schlosser, Clemens; Gestermann, Nicolai; Ceranna, Lars

2017-04-01

The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) prohibits all kinds of nuclear explosions. The International Monitoring System (IMS) is in place and at about 90% complete to verify compliance with the CTBT. The stations of the waveform technologies are capable to detect seismic, hydro-acoustic and infrasonic signals for detection, localization, and characterization of explosions. For practicing Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) verification procedures and interplay between the International Data Centre (IDC) and National Data Centres (NDC), prepardness exercises (NPE) are regularly performed with selected events of fictitious CTBT-violation. The German NDC's expertise for radionuclide analyses and operation of station RN33 is provided by the Federal Office for Radiation Protection (BfS) while Atmospheric Transport Modelling (ATM) for CTBT purposes is performed at the Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources (BGR) for the combination of the radionuclide findings with waveform evidence. The radionuclide part of the NPE 2015 scenario is tackled in a joint effort by BfS and BGR. First, the NPE 2015 spectra are analysed, fission products are identified, and respective activity concentrations are derived. Special focus is on isotopic ratios which allow for source characterization and event timing. For atmospheric backtracking the binary coincidence method is applied for both, SRS fields from IDC and WMO-RSMC, and for in-house backward simulations in higher resolution for the first affected samples. Results are compared with the WebGrape PSR and the spatio-temporal domain with high atmospheric release probability is determined. The ATM results together with the radionuclide fingerprint are used for identification of waveform candidate events. Comparative forward simulations of atmospheric dispersion for candidate events are performed. Finally the overall consistency of various source scenarios is assessed and a fictitious government briefing on the findings is given.

Analysis of the potential of near ground measurements of CO2 and CH4 in London, UK for the monitoring of city-scale emissions using an atmospheric transport model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boon, A.; Broquet, G.; Clifford, D. J.; Chevallier, F.; Butterfield, D. M.; Pison, I.; Ramonet, M.; Paris, J. D.; Ciais, P.

2015-11-01

Carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) mole fractions were measured at four near ground sites located in and around London during the summer of 2012 in view to investigate the potential of assimilating such measurements in an atmospheric inversion system for the monitoring of the CO2 and CH4 emissions in the London area. These data were analysed and compared with simulations using a modelling framework suited to building an inversion system: a 2 km horizontal resolution South of England configuration of the transport model CHIMERE driven by European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) meteorological forcing, coupled to a 1 km horizontal resolution emission inventory (the UK National Atmospheric Emission Inventory). First comparisons reveal that local sources have a large impact on measurements and these local sources cannot be represented in the model at 2 km resolution. We evaluate methods to minimise some of the other critical sources of misfits between the observation data and the model simulation that overlap the signature of the errors in the emission inventory. These methods should make it easier to identify the corrections that should be applied to the inventory. Analysis is supported by observations from meteorological sites around the city and a three-week period of atmospheric mixing layer height estimations from lidar measurements. The difficulties of modelling the mixing layer depth and thus CO2 and CH4 concentrations during the night, morning and late afternoon led us to focus on the afternoon period for all further analyses. The misfits between observations and model simulations are high for both CO2 and CH4 (i.e., their root mean square (RMS) is between 8 and 12 parts per million (ppm) for CO2 and between 30 and 55 parts per billion (ppb) for CH4 at a given site). By analysing the gradients between the urban sites and a suburban or rural reference site, we are able to decrease the impact of uncertainties in the fluxes and transport outside the London area and in the model domain boundary conditions, and to better focus attention on the signature of London urban CO2 and CH4 emissions. This considerably improves the statistical agreement between the model and observations for CO2 (model-data RMS misfit of between 3 and 7 ppm) and to a lesser degree for CH4 (model-data RMS misfit of between 29 and 38 ppb). Between one of the urban sites and either reference site, selecting the gradients during periods wherein the reference site is upwind of the urban site further decreases the statistics of the misfits in general even though not systematically. In a final attempt to focus on the signature of the city anthropogenic emission in the mole fraction measurements, we use a theoretical ratio of gradients of CO to gradients of CO2 from fossil fuel emissions in the London area to diagnose observation based fossil fuel CO2 gradients, and compare them with the modelled ones. This estimate increases the consistency between the model and the measurements when considering one of the urban sites, but not when considering the other. While this study evaluates different approaches for increasing the consistency between the mesoscale model and the near ground data, and manages to decrease the random component of the analysed model data misfits to an extent that should not be prohibitive to extracting the signal from the London urban emissions, large biases remain in the final misfits. These biases are likely to be due to local emissions, to which the urban near ground sites are highly sensitive. This questions our current ability to exploit urban near ground data for the atmospheric inversion of city emissions based on models at spatial resolution coarser than 2 km.

The GEOS-5 Data Assimilation System-Documentation of Versions 5.0.1, 5.1.0, and 5.2.0

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Suarez, Max J.; Rienecker, M. M.; Todling, R.; Bacmeister, J.; Takacs, L.; Liu, H. C.; Gu, W.; Sienkiewicz, M.; Koster, R. D.; Gelaro, R.;

Analyses of Aircraft Measurement of Atmospheric Turbulence

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-04-16

propagation models that utilize thermosonde measurements often adopt the “ onion -skin” assumption of horizontal homogeneity. But, radiosonde balloons...PD F( n L ) . Figure 7: Distributions of exponents, nX, for velocity and temperature structure function; XnXX rD  , where X =L,T,W, or

Semivolatile POA and parameterized total combustion SOA in CMAQv5.2: impacts on source strength and partitioning

EPA Science Inventory

Mounting evidence from field and laboratory observations coupled with atmospheric model analyses shows that primary combustion emissions of organic compounds dynamically partition between the vapor and particulate phases, especially as near-source emissions dilute and cool to amb...

Seasonal variability of atmospheric tides in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere: meteor radar data and simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pokhotelov, Dimitry; Becker, Erich; Stober, Gunter; Chau, Jorge L.

2018-06-01

Thermal tides play an important role in the global atmospheric dynamics and provide a key mechanism for the forcing of thermosphere-ionosphere dynamics from below. A method for extracting tidal contributions, based on the adaptive filtering, is applied to analyse multi-year observations of mesospheric winds from ground-based meteor radars located in northern Germany and Norway. The observed seasonal variability of tides is compared to simulations with the Kühlungsborn Mechanistic Circulation Model (KMCM). It is demonstrated that the model provides reasonable representation of the tidal amplitudes, though substantial differences from observations are also noticed. The limitations of applying a conventionally coarse-resolution model in combination with parametrisation of gravity waves are discussed. The work is aimed towards the development of an ionospheric model driven by the dynamics of the KMCM.

(F)UV Spectral Analysis of Hot, Hydrogen-Rich Central Stars of Planetary Nebulae

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ziegler, M.; Rauch, T.; Werner, K.; Kruk, J. W.

2010-11-01

Metal abundances of CSPNe are not well known although they provide important constraints on AGB nucleosynthesis. We aim to determine metal abundances of two hot, hydrogen-rich CSPNe (namely of A35 and NGC3587, the latter also known as M97 or the Owl Nebula) and to derive Teff and log g precisely from high-resolution, high-S/N (far-) ultraviolet observations obtained with FUSE and HST/STIS. For this purpose, we utilize NLTE model atmospheres calculated with TMAP, the Tübingen Model Atmosphere Package. Due to strong line absorption of the ISM, simultaneous modeling of interstellar features has become a standard tool in our analyses. We present preliminary results, demonstrating the importance of combining stellar and interstellar models, in order to clearly identify and measure the strengths of strategic photospheric lines.

Sea ice and polar climate in the NCAR CSM

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Weatherly, J.W.; Briegleb, B.P.; Large, W.G.

The Climate System Model (CSM) consists of atmosphere, ocean, land, and sea-ice components linked by a flux coupler, which computes fluxes of energy and momentum between components. The sea-ice component consists of a thermodynamic formulation for ice, snow, and leads within the ice pack, and ice dynamics using the cavitating-fluid ice rheology, which allows for the compressive strength of ice but ignores shear viscosity. The results of a 300-yr climate simulation are presented, with the focus on sea ice and the atmospheric forcing over sea ice in the polar regions. The atmospheric model results are compared to analyses from themore » European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and other observational sources. The sea-ice concentrations and velocities are compared to satellite observational data. The atmospheric sea level pressure (SLP) in CSM exhibits a high in the central Arctic displaced poleward from the observed Beaufort high. The Southern Hemisphere SLP over sea ice is generally 5 mb lower than observed. Air temperatures over sea ice in both hemispheres exhibit cold biases of 2--4 K. The precipitation-minus-evaporation fields in both hemispheres are greatly improved over those from earlier versions of the atmospheric GCM.« less

A statistical examination of Nimbus 7 SMMR data and remote sensing of sea surface temperature, liquid water content in the atmosphere and surfaces wind speed

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Prabhakara, C.; Wang, I.; Chang, A. T. C.; Gloersen, P.

1982-01-01

Nimbus 7 Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) brightness temperature measurements over the global oceans have been examined with the help of statistical and empirical techniques. Such analyses show that zonal averages of brightness temperature measured by SMMR, over the oceans, on a large scale are primarily influenced by the water vapor in the atmosphere. Liquid water in the clouds and rain, which has a much smaller spatial and temporal scale, contributes substantially to the variability of the SMMR measurements within the latitudinal zones. The surface wind not only increases the surface emissivity but through its interactions with the atmosphere produces correlations, in the SMMR brightness temperature data, that have significant meteorological implications. It is found that a simple meteorological model can explain the general characteristics of the SMMR data. With the help of this model methods to infer over the global oceans, the surface temperature, liquid water content in the atmosphere, and surface wind speed are developed. Monthly mean estimates of the sea surface temperature and surface winds are compared with the ship measurements. Estimates of liquid water content in the atmosphere are consistent with earlier satellite measurements.

Evaluating the Capacity of Global CO2 Flux and Atmospheric Transport Models to Incorporate New Satellite Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kawa, S. R.; Collatz, G. J.; Erickson, D. J.; Denning, A. S.; Wofsy, S. C.; Andrews, A. E.

2007-01-01

As we enter the new era of satellite remote sensing for CO2 and other carbon cyclerelated quantities, advanced modeling and analysis capabilities are required to fully capitalize on the new observations. Model estimates of CO2 surface flux and atmospheric transport are required for initial constraints on inverse analyses, to connect atmospheric observations to the location of surface sources and sinks, and ultimately for future projections of carbon-climate interactions. For application to current, planned, and future remotely sensed CO2 data, it is desirable that these models are accurate and unbiased at time scales from less than daily to multi-annual and at spatial scales from several kilometers or finer to global. Here we focus on simulated CO2 fluxes from terrestrial vegetation and atmospheric transport mutually constrained by analyzed meteorological fields from the Goddard Modeling and Assimilation Office for the period 1998 through 2006. Use of assimilated meteorological data enables direct model comparison to observations across a wide range of scales of variability. The biospheric fluxes are produced by the CASA model at lxi degrees on a monthly mean basis, modulated hourly with analyzed temperature and sunlight. Both physiological and biomass burning fluxes are derived using satellite observations of vegetation, burned area (as in GFED-2), and analyzed meteorology. For the purposes of comparison to CO2 data, fossil fuel and ocean fluxes are also included in the transport simulations. In this presentation we evaluate the model's ability to simulate CO2 flux and mixing ratio variability in comparison to in situ observations at sites in Northern mid latitudes and the continental tropics. The influence of key process representations is inferred. We find that the model can resolve much of the hourly to synoptic variability in the observations, although there are limits imposed by vertical resolution of boundary layer processes. The seasonal cycle and its interannual variations generally respond adequately, but discrepancies in the tropics suggest the need for a refinement of the soil moisture dependence of the respiration flux in CASA. Examples and inferences for interpretation of satellite data will be discussed. In general, the fidelity of these simulations leads us to anticipate incorporation of real-time, highly resolved remote sensing and other observations into quantitative analyses that will reduce uncertainty in the terrestrial CO2 sink and revolutionize our understanding of the key processes controlling atmospheric CO2 and its evolution with time.

Solar UV Radiation and the Origin of Life on Earth

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Heap, S. R.; Gaidos, E.; Hubeny, I.; Lanz, T. M.; Fisher, Richard R. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

We have embarked on a program aimed at understanding the atmosphere of the early Earth, because of its importance as a greenhouse, radiation shield, and energy source for life. Here, we give a progress report on the first phase of this program: to establish the UV radiation from the early Sun. We are presently obtaining ultraviolet spectra (STIS, FUSE, EUVE) of carefully selected nearby, young solar-type stars, which act as surrogates for the early Sun. We are currently making detailed non-LTE analyses of the spectra and constructing models of their photospheres + chromospheres. once validated, these models will allow us to extrapolate our theoretical spectra to unobserved spectral regions, and to proceed to the next step: to develop photochemical models of the pre-biotic and Archean atmosphere of the Earth.

The response of plasma density to breaking inertial gravity wave in the lower regions of ionosphere

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tang, Wenbo, E-mail: Wenbo.Tang@asu.edu; Mahalov, Alex, E-mail: Alex.Mahalov@asu.edu

2014-04-15

We present a three-dimensional numerical study for the E and lower F region ionosphere coupled with the neutral atmosphere dynamics. This model is developed based on a previous ionospheric model that examines the transport patterns of plasma density given a prescribed neutral atmospheric flow. Inclusion of neutral dynamics in the model allows us to examine the charge-neutral interactions over the full evolution cycle of an inertial gravity wave when the background flow spins up from rest, saturates and eventually breaks. Using Lagrangian analyses, we show the mixing patterns of the ionospheric responses and the formation of ionospheric layers. The correspondingmore » plasma density in this flow develops complex wave structures and small-scale patches during the gravity wave breaking event.« less

Nudging atmosphere and ocean reanalyses for seasonal climate predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piontek, Robert; Baehr, Johanna; Kornblueh, Luis; Müller, Wolfgang Alexander; Haak, Helmuth; Botzet, Michael; Matei, Daniela

2010-05-01

Seasonal climate forecasts based on state-of-the-art climate models have been developed recently. Here, we critically discuss the obstacles encountered in the setup of the ECHAM6/MPIOM global coupled climate model to perform climate predictions on seasonal to decadal time scales. We particularly focus on the initialization procedure, especially on the implementation of the nudging scheme, in which different reanalysis products are used in the atmosphere (e.g.ERA40), and the ocean (e.g., GECCO). Nudging in the atmosphere appears to be sensitive to the following choices: limiting the spectral range of nudging, whether or not temperature is nudged, the strength of the nudging coefficient for surface pressure, and the height at which the planetary boundary layer is excluded from nudging. We find that including nudging in both the atmosphere and the ocean gives improved results over nudging only the ocean or the atmosphere. For the implementation of the nudging in the atmosphere, we find the most significant improvements in the solution when either the planetary boundary layer is excluded, or if nudging of temperature is omitted. There are significant improvements in the solution when resolution is increased in both the atmosphere and in the ocean. Our tests form the basis for the prediction system introduced in the abstract of Müller et al., where hindcasts are analysed as well.

World Meteorological Organization's model simulations of the radionuclide dispersion and deposition from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident.

PubMed

Draxler, Roland; Arnold, Dèlia; Chino, Masamichi; Galmarini, Stefano; Hort, Matthew; Jones, Andrew; Leadbetter, Susan; Malo, Alain; Maurer, Christian; Rolph, Glenn; Saito, Kazuo; Servranckx, René; Shimbori, Toshiki; Solazzo, Efisio; Wotawa, Gerhard

2015-01-01

Five different atmospheric transport and dispersion model's (ATDM) deposition and air concentration results for atmospheric releases from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident were evaluated over Japan using regional (137)Cs deposition measurements and (137)Cs and (131)I air concentration time series at one location about 110 km from the plant. Some of the ATDMs used the same and others different meteorological data consistent with their normal operating practices. There were four global meteorological analyses data sets available and two regional high-resolution analyses. Not all of the ATDMs were able to use all of the meteorological data combinations. The ATDMs were configured identically as much as possible with respect to the release duration, release height, concentration grid size, and averaging time. However, each ATDM retained its unique treatment of the vertical velocity field and the wet and dry deposition, one of the largest uncertainties in these calculations. There were 18 ATDM-meteorology combinations available for evaluation. The deposition results showed that even when using the same meteorological analysis, each ATDM can produce quite different deposition patterns. The better calculations in terms of both deposition and air concentration were associated with the smoother ATDM deposition patterns. The best model with respect to the deposition was not always the best model with respect to air concentrations. The use of high-resolution mesoscale analyses improved ATDM performance; however, high-resolution precipitation analyses did not improve ATDM predictions. Although some ATDMs could be identified as better performers for either deposition or air concentration calculations, overall, the ensemble mean of a subset of better performing members provided more consistent results for both types of calculations. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Modelling future impacts of air pollution using the multi-scale UK Integrated Assessment Model (UKIAM).

PubMed

Oxley, Tim; Dore, Anthony J; ApSimon, Helen; Hall, Jane; Kryza, Maciej

2013-11-01

Integrated assessment modelling has evolved to support policy development in relation to air pollutants and greenhouse gases by providing integrated simulation tools able to produce quick and realistic representations of emission scenarios and their environmental impacts without the need to re-run complex atmospheric dispersion models. The UK Integrated Assessment Model (UKIAM) has been developed to investigate strategies for reducing UK emissions by bringing together information on projected UK emissions of SO2, NOx, NH3, PM10 and PM2.5, atmospheric dispersion, criteria for protection of ecosystems, urban air quality and human health, and data on potential abatement measures to reduce emissions, which may subsequently be linked to associated analyses of costs and benefits. We describe the multi-scale model structure ranging from continental to roadside, UK emission sources, atmospheric dispersion of emissions, implementation of abatement measures, integration with European-scale modelling, and environmental impacts. The model generates outputs from a national perspective which are used to evaluate alternative strategies in relation to emissions, deposition patterns, air quality metrics and ecosystem critical load exceedance. We present a selection of scenarios in relation to the 2020 Business-As-Usual projections and identify potential further reductions beyond those currently being planned. © 2013.

Identification of Atmospheric Blocking Events and its Influence on Temperature and Precipitation Extremes in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richling, Andy; Rust, Henning W.; Bissolli, Peter; Ulbrich, Uwe

2017-04-01

Atmospheric blocking plays a crucial role in climate variability in the mid-latitudes. Especially meteorological extremes like heatwaves, cold spells and droughts are often related to persistent and stationary blocking events. For climate monitoring it is important to identify and characterise such blocking events as well as to analyse the relationship between blockings and meteorological extremes in a quantitative way. In this study we identify atmospheric blocking events and analyse the influence on temperature and precipitation extremes with statistical models. For the detection of atmospheric blocking events, we apply modified 2-dimensional versions of commonly used blocking indices suggested by Tibaldi and Molteni (1990) as well as Masato et al. (2013) on daily fields of 500hPa geopotential heights of the Era-Interim reanalysis dataset. A result is a list of blocking events with a multidimensional index characterising area, intensity, location and duration and maps of these parameters, which are intended to be used operationally for regular climate diagnostics at the German Meteorological Service. In addition, relationships between grid-point-base blocking frequency, intensity and location parameters and the number of daily temperature/precipitation extremes based on the E-OBS gridded dataset are investigated using general linear models on a monthly time scale. The number of counts as well as probabilities of occurrence of daily extremes within a certain calendar month will be analysed in this framework. G. Masato, B. J. Hoskins, and T. Woollings. Winter and Summer Northern Hemisphere Blocking in CMIP5 Models. J. Climate, 26:7044-7059, 2013a. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D- 12-00466.1. G. Masato, B. J. Hoskins, and T. Woollings. Wave-Breaking Characteristics of Northern Hemi- sphere Winter Blocking: A Two-Dimensional Approach. J. Climate, 26:4535-4549, 2013b. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00240.1. S. Tibaldi and F. Molteni. On the operational predictability of blocking. Tellus, 42A:343-365, 1990. doi: 10.1034/j.1600-0870.1990.t01-2-00003.x.

Studying Biological Responses to Global Change in Atmospheric Oxygen

PubMed Central

Powell, Frank L.

2010-01-01

A popular book recently hypothesized that change in atmospheric oxygen over geological time is the most important physical factor in the evolution of many fundamental characteristics of modern terrestrial animals. This hypothesis is generated primarily using fossil data but the present paper considers how modern experimental biology can be used to test it. Comparative physiology and experimental evolution clearly show that changes in atmospheric O2 over the ages had the potential to drive evolution, assuming the physiological O2-sensitivity of animals today is similar to the past. Established methods, such as phylogenetically independent contrasts, as well new approaches, such as adding environmental history to phylogenetic analyses or modeling interactions between environmental stresses and biological responses with different rate constants, may be useful for testing (disproving) hypotheses about biological adaptations to changes in atmospheric O2. PMID:20385257

Improving Regional Forecast by Assimilating Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder (AIRS) Profiles into WRF Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chou, Shih-Hung; Zavodsky, Brad; Jedlovec, Gary J.

2009-01-01

In data sparse regions, remotely-sensed observations can be used to improve analyses and produce improved forecasts. One such source comes from the Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder (AIRS), which together with the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU), represents one of the most advanced space-based atmospheric sounding systems. The purpose of this paper is to describe a procedure to optimally assimilate high resolution AIRS profile data into a regional configuration of the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) version 2.2 using WRF-Var. The paper focuses on development of background error covariances for the regional domain and background type, and an optimal methodology for ingesting AIRS temperature and moisture profiles as separate overland and overwater retrievals with different error characteristics. The AIRS thermodynamic profiles are derived from the version 5.0 Earth Observing System (EOS) science team retrieval algorithm and contain information about the quality of each temperature layer. The quality indicators were used to select the highest quality temperature and moisture data for each profile location and pressure level. The analyses were then used to conduct a month-long series of regional forecasts over the continental U.S. The long-term impacts of AIRS profiles on forecast were assessed against verifying NAM analyses and stage IV precipitation data.

Acoustic waves in the solar atmosphere at high spatial resolution. II. Measurement in the Fe I 5434 Å line

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bello González, N.; Flores Soriano, M.; Kneer, F.; Okunev, O.; Shchukina, N.

2010-11-01

Aims: We investigate the energy supply of the solar chromosphere by acoustic waves. Methods: A time sequence with high spatial and temporal resolution from the quiet Sun disc centre in Fe i 5434 Å (Landé factor g = 0) is analysed. We used models from a numerical simulation of granular convection and apply NLTE spectral line transfer to determine the height of formation. For estimates of acoustic energy flux, we adopted wave propagation with inclinations of the wave vector with respect to the vertical of 0°, 30°, and 45°. For a granular and an intergranular model, the transmissions of the atmosphere to high-frequency waves were determined for the three inclination angles. Wavelet and Fourier analyses were performed and the resulting power spectra were corrected for atmospheric transmission. Results: We find waves with periods down to ~40 s. They occur intermittently in space and time. The velocity signal is formed at a height of 500 km in the granular model and at 620 km in the intergranule. At periods shorter than the acoustic cutoff (~190 s), ~40% of the waves occur above granules and ~60% above intergranules. By adopting vertical propagation, we estimate total fluxes above granules of 2750-3360 W m-2, and of 910-1 000 W m-2 above intergranules. The weighted average is 1730-2 060 W m-2. The estimates of the total fluxes increase by 15% when inclined wave propagation of 45° is assumed.

The Nature of Global Large-scale Sea Level Variability in Relation to Atmospheric Forcing: A Modeling Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fukumori, I.; Raghunath, R.; Fu, L. L.

1996-01-01

The relation between large-scale sea level variability and ocean circulation is studied using a numerical model. A global primitive equaiton model of the ocean is forced by daily winds and climatological heat fluxes corresponding to the period from January 1992 to February 1996. The physical nature of the temporal variability from periods of days to a year, are examined based on spectral analyses of model results and comparisons with satellite altimetry and tide gauge measurements.

The Hot Horizontal-Branch Stars in NGC288 - Effects of Diffusion and Stratification on Their Atmospheric Parameters*

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moehler, S.; Dreizler, S.; LeBlanc, F.; Khalack, V.; Michaud, G.; Richer, J.; Sweigart, Allen V.; Grundahl, F.

2014-01-01

Context. NGC288 is a globular cluster with a well developed blue horizontal branch covering the so-called u-jump which indicates the onset of diffusion. It is therefore well suited to study the effects of diffusion in blue horizontal branch (HB) stars. Aims. We compare observed abundances to predictions from stellar evolution models calculated with diffusion and from stratified atmospheric models. We verify the effect of using stratified model spectra to derive atmospheric parameters. In addition we investigate the nature of the overluminous blue HB stars around the u-jump. Methods. We define a new photometric index sz from uvby measurements that is gravity sensitive between 8 000K and 12 000 K. Using medium-resolution spectra and Stroemgren photometry we determine atmospheric parameters (Teff, logg) and abundances for the blue HB stars. We use both homogeneous and stratified model spectra for our spectroscopic analyses. Results. The atmospheric parameters and masses of the hot HB stars in NGC288 show a behaviour seen also in other clusters for temperatures between 9 000K and 14 000 K. Outside this temperature range, however, they follow rather the results found for such stars in (omega)Cen. The abundances derived from our observations are for most elements (except He and P) within the abundance range expected from evolutionary models that include the effects of atomic diffusion and assume a surface mixed mass of 10(exp -7) M. The abundances predicted by stratified model atmospheres are generally significantly more extreme than observed, except for Mg. The use of stratified model spectra to determine effective temperatures, surface gravities and masses moves the hotter stars to a closer agreement with canonical evolutionary predictions. Conclusions. Our results show definite promise towards solving the long-standing issue of surface gravity and mass discrepancies for hot HB stars, but there is still much work needed to arrive at a self-consistent solution.

Digital simulation of a communication link for Pioneer Saturn Uranus atmospheric entry probe, part 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hinrichs, C. A.

1975-01-01

A digital simulation study is presented for a candidate modulator/demodulator design in an atmospheric scintillation environment with Doppler, Doppler rate, and signal attenuation typical of the conditions of an outer planet atmospheric probe. The simulation results indicate that the mean channel error rate with and without scintillation are similar to theoretical characterizations of the link. The simulation gives information for calculating other channel statistics and generates a quantized symbol stream on magnetic tape from which error correction decoding is analyzed. Results from the magnetic tape data analyses are also included. The receiver and bit synchronizer are modeled in the simulation at the level of hardware component parameters rather than at the loop equation level and individual hardware parameters are identified. The atmospheric scintillation amplitude and phase are modeled independently. Normal and log normal amplitude processes are studied. In each case the scintillations are low pass filtered. The receiver performance is given for a range of signal to noise ratios with and without the effects of scintillation. The performance is reviewed for critical reciever parameter variations.

Temperature and dust profiles of Mars' atmosphere derived from Mars Climate Sounder (Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teanby, N. A.; Irwin, P. G.; Howett, C.; Calcutt, S. B.; Lolachi, R.; Bowles, N. E.; Taylor, F. W.; Schofield, J. T.; Kleinboehl, A.; McCleese, D. J.

2007-12-01

Mars Climate Sounder (MCS) on board NASA's Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) primarily operates as a limb sounding infrared radiometer. The small field of view and limb scanning mode allow retrieval of atmospheric temperature and dust properties from the surface up to approximately 80km with 5km vertical resolution. The polar orbit of MRO gives coverage of all latitudes at 3pm and 3am Mars local-time. The ability of MCS to sounds these altitudes at high spatial and temporal resolution gives a unique dataset with which to test our understanding of the Martian atmosphere. It also complements and extends upon previous climatalogical datasets (for example TES). Measured mid-infrared radiances from MCS were analysed using the correlated-k approximation with Oxford's NEMESIS retrieval software. The correlated-k approximation was compared with a line-by-line model to confirm its accuracy under Martian atmospheric conditions. Dust properties were taken from analysis of TES data by Wolff and Clancy (2003). We present profiles of temperature and dust for data covering September to December 2006. During this period Mars' north pole was experiencing summer and the south pole was in winter. Preliminary results show that high altitude warming over the southern winter pole is greater than that predicted by models. Our results will be compared to numerical models of the Martian atmosphere and the implications discussed.

Effects of Material Degradation on the Structural Integrity of Composite Materials: Experimental Investigation and Modeling of High Temperature Degradation Mechanisms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cunningham, Ronan A.; McManus, Hugh L.

1996-01-01

It has previously been demonstrated that simple coupled reaction-diffusion models can approximate the aging behavior of PMR-15 resin subjected to different oxidative environments. Based on empirically observed phenomena, a model coupling chemical reactions, both thermal and oxidative, with diffusion of oxygen into the material bulk should allow simulation of the aging process. Through preliminary modeling techniques such as this it has become apparent that accurate analytical models cannot be created until the phenomena which cause the aging of these materials are quantified. An experimental program is currently underway to quantify all of the reaction/diffusion related mechanisms involved. The following contains a summary of the experimental data which has been collected through thermogravimetric analyses of neat PMR-15 resin, along with analytical predictions from models based on the empirical data. Thermogravimetric analyses were carried out in a number of different environments - nitrogen, air and oxygen. The nitrogen provides data for the purely thermal degradation mechanisms while those in air provide data for the coupled oxidative-thermal process. The intent here is to effectively subtract the nitrogen atmosphere data (assumed to represent only thermal reactions) from the air and oxygen atmosphere data to back-figure the purely oxidative reactions. Once purely oxidative (concentration dependent) reactions have been quantified it should then be possible to quantify the diffusion of oxygen into the material bulk.

Potential evapotranspiration and continental drying

USGS Publications Warehouse

Milly, Paul C.D.; Dunne, Krista A.

2016-01-01

By various measures (drought area and intensity, climatic aridity index, and climatic water deficits), some observational analyses have suggested that much of the Earth’s land has been drying during recent decades, but such drying seems inconsistent with observations of dryland greening and decreasing pan evaporation. ‘Offline’ analyses of climate-model outputs from anthropogenic climate change (ACC) experiments portend continuation of putative drying through the twenty-first century, despite an expected increase in global land precipitation. A ubiquitous increase in estimates of potential evapotranspiration (PET), driven by atmospheric warming, underlies the drying trends, but may be a methodological artefact. Here we show that the PET estimator commonly used (the Penman–Monteith PET for either an open-water surface or a reference crop) severely overpredicts the changes in non-water-stressed evapotranspiration computed in the climate models themselves in ACC experiments. This overprediction is partially due to neglect of stomatal conductance reductions commonly induced by increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations in climate models. Our findings imply that historical and future tendencies towards continental drying, as characterized by offline-computed runoff, as well as other PET-dependent metrics, may be considerably weaker and less extensive than previously thought.

Hourly indoor radon measurements in a research house.

PubMed

Sesana, Lucia; Begnini, Stefania

2004-01-01

This paper reports and discusses the behaviour of radon concentration with time in an uninhabited dwelling. The relationship between variations in radon concentrations and indoor-outdoor temperatures and wind intensity has also been discussed. Radon concentration was measured hourly in a house located at a height of 800 m in the Lombard Prealps, at the top of the Valassina valley. The wind velocity and indoor-outdoor temperatures were measured by means of a meteorological station located on the terrace of the house. The data were analysed using the LBL model for indoor-outdoor air exchange and the models for the indoor accumulation of radon due to exhalation from building materials and pressure-driven infiltrations located underground. The role of wind and indoor-outdoor temperatures were analysed. The agreement of measurements with modelling clearly demonstrates the importance of the different sources of indoor radon. As the investigation was conducted in an uninhabited house, the measurements were not affected by the behaviour of people, e.g. opening and closing of windows. Measurements of the outdoor atmospheric concentrations of (222)Rn provide an index of the atmospheric stability, the formation of thermal inversions and convective turbulence.

The Evolution of Water in Martian Atmosphere, Hydrosphere, and Cryosphere: Insights from Hydrogen Isotopes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Usui, T.; Kurokawa, H.; Alexander, C.; Simon, J. I.; Wang, J.; Jones, J. H.

2016-12-01

Mars exploration missions provide compelling evidence for the presence of liquid water during the earliest geologic era (Noachian: > 3.9 Ga) of Mars. The amount and stability of liquid water on the surface is strongly influenced by the composition and pressure of the atmosphere. However, the evolution of Noachian atmosphere has been poorly constrained due to uncertainties of atmospheric loss regimes and internal/external factors such as impact flux and volcanic degassing. We can trace the evolution of the early Martian atmosphere and its interaction with the hydrosphere and cryosphere with hydrogen isotope ratios (D/H) because they fractionate during atmospheric escape and during hydrological cycling between the atmosphere, surface waters, and the polar ice caps. This study reports D/H ratios of primordial and 4 Ga-old atmosphere by ion microprobe analyses of Martian meteorites. Analyses of olivine-hosted glass inclusions in the most primitive shergottite (Yamato 980459) provide a near-chondritic D/H ratio (1.3×SMOW) for the 4.5 Ga primordial water preserved in the mantle. On the other hand, carbonates in Allan Hills 84001 provide a D/H range (1.5-2.0×SMOW) for the Noachian surface water that was isotopically equilibrated with the 4 Ga atmosphere. The latter observation requires that even after the Noachian period the hydrogen isotopes were fractionated significantly to reach the present-day value of 6×SMOW. Using the one-reservoir model of Kurokawa et al. (2014) we can provide minimum estimates on the amounts of hydrogen loss before and after 4 Ga based on the D/H data from the meteorites (1.3×SMOW at 4.5 Ga and 1.5-2.0×SMOW at 4 Ga) assuming the volume of polar surface-ice (20-30 m global equivalent layers, GEL). The model indicates that the hydrogen loss during the first 0.5 billion years (16-54 m GEL) was comparable to those (42-93 mGEL) in the remaining Martian history. These values are distinctly lower than the geological estimates on the volumes of paleo-oceans (e.g., 550 mGEL, Di Achille & Hynek, 2010). This difference implies that a buried cryosphere must accounted for a large part of the water budget (Usui et al. 2015).

NASA/MSFC FY-84 Atmospheric Processes Research Review

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vaughan, W. W. (Compiler); Porter, F. (Compiler)

1984-01-01

The two main areas of focus for NASA/MSFC's atmospheric research program are: (1) global scale processes (geophysical fluid processes, satellite Doppler lidar wind profiler, and satellite data analyses) and (2) mesoscale processes (atmospheric electricity (lightning), ground/airborne Doppler lidar wind measurements, and mesoscale analyses and space sensors). Topics within these two general areas are addressed.

NASA Cold Land Processes Experiment (CLPX 2002/03): Atmospheric analyses datasets

Treesearch

Glen E. Liston; Daniel L. Birkenheuer; Christopher A. Hiemstra; Donald W. Cline; Kelly Elder

2008-01-01

This paper describes the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) and the 20-km horizontal grid version of the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC20) atmospheric analyses datasets, which are available as part of the Cold Land Processes Field Experiment (CLPX) data archive. The LAPS dataset contains spatially and temporally continuous atmospheric and surface variables over...

Dynamically Consistent Shallow-Atmosphere Equations with a Complete Coriolis force

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tort, Marine; Dubos, Thomas; Bouchut, François; Zeitlin, Vladimir

2014-05-01

Dynamically Consistent Shallow-Atmosphere Equations with a Complete Coriolis force Marine Tort1, Thomas Dubos1, François Bouchut2 & Vladimir Zeitlin1,3 1 Laboratoire of Dynamical Meteorology, Univ. P. and M. Curie, Ecole Normale Supérieure, and Ecole Polytechnique, FRANCE 2 Université Paris-Est, Laboratoire d'Analyse et de Mathématiques Appliquées, FRANCE 3 Institut Universitaire de France Atmospheric and oceanic motion are usually modeled within the shallow-fluid approximation, which simplifies the 3D spherical geometry. For dynamical consistency, i.e. to ensure conservation laws for potential vorticity, energy and angular momentum, the horizontal component of the Coriolis force is neglected. Here new equation sets combining consistently a simplified shallow-fluid geometry with a complete Coriolis force is presented. The derivation invokes Hamilton's principle of least action with an approximate Lagrangian capturing the small increase with height of the solid-body entrainment velocity due to planetary rotation. A three-dimensional compressible model and a one-layer shallow-water model are obtained. The latter extends previous work done on the f-plane and β-plane. Preliminary numerical results confirm the accuracy of the 3D model within the range of parameters for which the equations are relevant. These new models could be useful to incorporate a full Coriolis force into existing numerical models and to disentangle the effects of the shallow-atmosphere approximation from those of the traditional approximation. Related papers: Tort M., Dubos T., Bouchut F. and Zeitlin V. Consistent shallow-water equations on the rotating sphere with complete Coriolis force and topography. J. Fluid Mech. (under revisions) Tort M. and Dubos T. Dynamically consistent shallow-atmosphere equations with a complete Coriolis force. Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc. (DOI: 10.1002/qj.2274)

Boundary Layer Depth In Coastal Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Porson, A.; Schayes, G.

The results of earlier studies performed about sea breezes simulations have shown that this is a relevant feature of the Planetary Boundary Layer that still requires effort to be diagnosed properly by atmospheric models. Based on the observations made during the ESCOMPTE campaign, over the Mediterranean Sea, different CBL and SBL height estimation processes have been tested with a meso-scale model, TVM. The aim was to compare the critical points of the BL height determination computed using turbulent kinetic energy profile with some other standard evaluations. Moreover, these results have been analysed with different mixing length formulation. The sensitivity of formulation is also analysed with a simple coastal configuration.

Soil moisture profile variability in land-vegetation- atmosphere continuum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Wanru

Soil moisture is of critical importance to the physical processes governing energy and water exchanges at the land-air boundary. With respect to the exchange of water mass, soil moisture controls the response of the land surface to atmospheric forcing and determines the partitioning of precipitation into infiltration and runoff. Meanwhile, the soil acts as a reservoir for the storage of liquid water and slow release of water vapor into the atmosphere. The major motivation of the study is that the soil moisture profile is thought to make a substantial contribution to the climate variability through two-way interactions between the land-surface and the atmosphere in the coupled ocean-atmosphere-land climate system. The characteristics of soil moisture variability with soil depth may be important in affecting the atmosphere. The natural variability of soil moisture profile is demonstrated using observations. The 16-year field observational data of soil moisture with 11-layer (top 2.0 meters) measured soil depths over Illinois are analyzed and used to identify and quantify the soil moisture profile variability, where the atmospheric forcing (precipitation) anomaly propagates down through the land-branch of the hydrological cycle with amplitude damping, phase shift, and increasing persistence. Detailed statistical data analyses, which include application of the periodogram method, the wavelet method and the band-pass filter, are made of the variations of soil moisture profile and concurrently measured precipitation for comparison. Cross-spectral analysis is performed to obtain the coherence pattern and phase correlation of two time series for phase shift and amplitude damping calculation. A composite of the drought events during this time period is analyzed and compared with the normal (non-drought) case. A multi-layer land surface model is applied for modeling the soil moisture profile variability characteristics and investigating the underlying mechanisms. Numerical experiments are conducted to examine the impacts of some potential controlling factors, which include atmospheric forcing (periodic and pulse) at the upper boundary, the initial soil moisture profile, the relative root abundance and the soil texture, on the variability of soil moisture profile and the corresponding evapotranspiration. Similar statistical data analyses are performed for the experimental data. Observations from the First International Satellite Land Surface Climatological Project (ISLSCP) Field Experiment (FIFE) are analyzed and used for the testing of model. The integration of the observational and modeling approaches makes it possible to better understand the mechanisms by which the soil moisture profile variability is generated with phase shift, fluctuation amplitude damping and low-pass frequency filtering with soil depth, to improve the strategies of parameterizations in land surface schemes, and furthermore, to assess its contribution to climate variability.

The tropopause inversion layer in models and analyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Birner, T.; Sankey, D.; Shepherd, T. G.

2006-07-01

Recent high-resolution radiosonde climatologies have revealed a tropopause inversion layer (TIL) in the extratropics: temperature strongly increases just above a sharp local cold point tropopause. Here, it is asked to what extent a TIL exists in current general circulation models (GCMs) and meteorological analyses. Only a weak hint of a TIL exists in NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. In contrast, the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (CMAM), a comprehensive GCM, exhibits a TIL of realistic strength. However, in data assimilation mode CMAM exhibits a much weaker TIL, especially in the Southern Hemisphere where only coarse satellite data are available. The discrepancy between the analyses and the GCM is thus hypothesized to be mainly due to data assimilation acting to smooth the observed strong curvature in temperature around the tropopause. This is confirmed in the reanalysis where the stratification around the tropopause exhibits a strong discontinuity at the start of the satellite era.

Advanced Space Shuttle simulation model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tatom, F. B.; Smith, S. R.

1982-01-01

A non-recursive model (based on von Karman spectra) for atmospheric turbulence along the flight path of the shuttle orbiter was developed. It provides for simulation of instantaneous vertical and horizontal gusts at the vehicle center-of-gravity, and also for simulation of instantaneous gusts gradients. Based on this model the time series for both gusts and gust gradients were generated and stored on a series of magnetic tapes, entitled Shuttle Simulation Turbulence Tapes (SSTT). The time series are designed to represent atmospheric turbulence from ground level to an altitude of 120,000 meters. A description of the turbulence generation procedure is provided. The results of validating the simulated turbulence are described. Conclusions and recommendations are presented. One-dimensional von Karman spectra are tabulated, while a discussion of the minimum frequency simulated is provided. The results of spectral and statistical analyses of the SSTT are presented.

Mathematical model of unmanned aerial vehicle used for endurance autonomous monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chelaru, Teodor-Viorel; Chelaru, Adrian

2014-12-01

The paper purpose is to present some aspects regarding the control system of unmanned aerial vehicle - UAV, used to local observations, surveillance and monitoring interest area. The calculus methodology allows a numerical simulation of UAV evolution in bad atmospheric conditions by using nonlinear model, as well as a linear one for obtaining guidance command. The UAV model which will be presented has six DOF (degrees of freedom), and autonomous control system. This theoretical development allows us to build stability matrix, command matrix and control matrix and finally to analyse the stability of autonomous UAV flight. A robust guidance system, based on uncoupled state will be evaluated for different fly conditions and the results will be presented. The flight parameters and guidance will be analysed.

Exploiting the chaotic behaviour of atmospheric models with reconfigurable architectures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Russell, Francis P.; Düben, Peter D.; Niu, Xinyu; Luk, Wayne; Palmer, T. N.

2017-12-01

Reconfigurable architectures are becoming mainstream: Amazon, Microsoft and IBM are supporting such architectures in their data centres. The computationally intensive nature of atmospheric modelling is an attractive target for hardware acceleration using reconfigurable computing. Performance of hardware designs can be improved through the use of reduced-precision arithmetic, but maintaining appropriate accuracy is essential. We explore reduced-precision optimisation for simulating chaotic systems, targeting atmospheric modelling, in which even minor changes in arithmetic behaviour will cause simulations to diverge quickly. The possibility of equally valid simulations having differing outcomes means that standard techniques for comparing numerical accuracy are inappropriate. We use the Hellinger distance to compare statistical behaviour between reduced-precision CPU implementations to guide reconfigurable designs of a chaotic system, then analyse accuracy, performance and power efficiency of the resulting implementations. Our results show that with only a limited loss in accuracy corresponding to less than 10% uncertainty in input parameters, the throughput and energy efficiency of a single-precision chaotic system implemented on a Xilinx Virtex-6 SX475T Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA) can be more than doubled.

Panchromatic Calibration of Astronomical Observations with State-of-the-Art White Dwarf Model Atmospheres

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rauch, T.

2016-05-01

Theoretical spectral energy distributions (SEDs) of white dwarfs provide a powerful tool for cross-calibration and sensitivity control of instruments from the far infrared to the X-ray energy range. Such SEDs can be calculated from fully metal-line blanketed NLTE model-atmospheres that are e.g. computed by the Tübingen NLTE Model-Atmosphere Package (TMAP) that has arrived at a high level of sophistication. TMAP was successfully employed for the reliable spectral analysis of many hot, compact post-AGB stars. High-quality stellar spectra obtained over a wide energy range establish a data base with a large number of spectral lines of many successive ions of different species. Their analysis allows to determine effective temperatures, surface gravities, and element abundances of individual (pre-)white dwarfs with very small error ranges. We present applications of TMAP SEDs for spectral analyses of hot, compact stars in the parameter range from (pre-) white dwarfs to neutron stars and demonstrate the improvement of flux calibration using white-dwarf SEDs that are e.g. available via registered services in the Virtual Observatory.

FAST TRACK COMMUNICATION: Contrasting characteristics of sub-microsecond pulsed atmospheric air and atmospheric pressure helium-oxygen glow discharges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walsh, J. L.; Liu, D. X.; Iza, F.; Rong, M. Z.; Kong, M. G.

2010-01-01

Glow discharges in air are often considered to be the ultimate low-temperature atmospheric pressure plasmas for numerous chamber-free applications. This is due to the ubiquitous presence of air and the perceived abundance of reactive oxygen and nitrogen species in air plasmas. In this paper, sub-microsecond pulsed atmospheric air plasmas are shown to produce a low concentration of excited oxygen atoms but an abundance of excited nitrogen species, UV photons and ozone molecules. This contrasts sharply with the efficient production of excited oxygen atoms in comparable helium-oxygen discharges. Relevant reaction chemistry analysed with a global model suggests that collisional excitation of O2 by helium metastables is significantly more efficient than electron dissociative excitation of O2, electron excitation of O and ion-ion recombination. These results suggest different practical uses of the two oxygen-containing atmospheric discharges, with air plasmas being well suited for nitrogen and UV based chemistry and He-O2 plasmas for excited atomic oxygen based chemistry.

Using barometric time series of the IMS infrasound network for a global analysis of thermally induced atmospheric tides

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hupe, Patrick; Ceranna, Lars; Pilger, Christoph

2018-04-01

The International Monitoring System (IMS) has been established to monitor compliance with the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty and comprises four technologies, one of which is infrasound. When fully established, the IMS infrasound network consists of 60 sites uniformly distributed around the globe. Besides its primary purpose of determining explosions in the atmosphere, the recorded data reveal information on other anthropogenic and natural infrasound sources. Furthermore, the almost continuous multi-year recordings of differential and absolute air pressure allow for analysing the atmospheric conditions. In this paper, spectral analysis tools are applied to derive atmospheric dynamics from barometric time series. Based on the solar atmospheric tides, a methodology for performing geographic and temporal variability analyses is presented, which is supposed to serve for upcoming studies related to atmospheric dynamics. The surplus value of using the IMS infrasound network data for such purposes is demonstrated by comparing the findings on the thermal tides with previous studies and the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications Version 2 (MERRA-2), which represents the solar tides well in its surface pressure fields. Absolute air pressure recordings reveal geographical characteristics of atmospheric tides related to the solar day and even to the lunar day. We therefore claim the chosen methodology of using the IMS infrasound network to be applicable for global and temporal studies on specific atmospheric dynamics. Given the accuracy and high temporal resolution of the barometric data from the IMS infrasound network, interactions with gravity waves and planetary waves can be examined in future for refining the knowledge of atmospheric dynamics, e.g. the origin of tidal harmonics up to 9 cycles per day as found in the barometric data sets. Data assimilation in empirical models of solar tides would be a valuable application of the IMS infrasound data.

The impact of climate change on America's forests

Treesearch

Linda A. Joyce; Richard Birdsey

2000-01-01

This report documents trends and impacts of climate change on America's forests as required by the Renewable Resources Planning Act of 1974. Recent research on the impact of climate and elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide on plant productivity is synthesized. Modeling analyses explore the potential impact of climate changes on forests, wood products, and carbon in...

Stratospheric temperatures and tracer transport in a nudged 4-year middle atmosphere GCM simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Aalst, M. K.; Lelieveld, J.; Steil, B.; Brühl, C.; Jöckel, P.; Giorgetta, M. A.; Roelofs, G.-J.

2005-02-01

We have performed a 4-year simulation with the Middle Atmosphere General Circulation Model MAECHAM5/MESSy, while slightly nudging the model's meteorology in the free troposphere (below 113 hPa) towards ECMWF analyses. We show that the nudging 5 technique, which leaves the middle atmosphere almost entirely free, enables comparisons with synoptic observations. The model successfully reproduces many specific features of the interannual variability, including details of the Antarctic vortex structure. In the Arctic, the model captures general features of the interannual variability, but falls short in reproducing the timing of sudden stratospheric warmings. A 10 detailed comparison of the nudged model simulations with ECMWF data shows that the model simulates realistic stratospheric temperature distributions and variabilities, including the temperature minima in the Antarctic vortex. Some small (a few K) model biases were also identified, including a summer cold bias at both poles, and a general cold bias in the lower stratosphere, most pronounced in midlatitudes. A comparison 15 of tracer distributions with HALOE observations shows that the model successfully reproduces specific aspects of the instantaneous circulation. The main tracer transport deficiencies occur in the polar lowermost stratosphere. These are related to the tropopause altitude as well as the tracer advection scheme and model resolution. The additional nudging of equatorial zonal winds, forcing the quasi-biennial oscillation, sig20 nificantly improves stratospheric temperatures and tracer distributions.

Non-LTE model atmosphere analysis of Nova Cygni 1992

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hauschildt, P. H.; Starrfield, S.; Austin, S.; Wagner, R. M.; Shore, S. N.; Sonneborn, G.

1994-01-01

We use spherically symmetric non-local thermodynamic equilibrium (non-LTE), line-blanketed, expanding model atmospheres to analyze the International Ultraviolet Explorer (IUE) and optical spectra of Nova Cygni 1992 during the early phases of its outburst. We find that the first IUE spectrum obtained just after discovery on 1992 February 20, is best reproduced by a model atmosphere with a steep density gradient and homologous expansion, whereas the IUE and optical spectra obtained on February 24 show an extended, optically thick, wind structure. Therefore, we distinguish two phases of the early evolution of the nova photosphere: the initial, rapid, 'fireball' phase and the subsequent, much longer, optically thick 'wind' phase. The importance of line-blanketing in nova spectra is demonstrated. Our preliminary abundance analysis implies that hydrogen is depeleted in the ejecta, corresponding to abundance enhancements of Fe by a factor of approximately 2 and of CNO by more than a factor of 10 when compared to solar abundances. The synthetic spectra reproduce both the observed pseudo-continua as well as most of the observed features from the UV to the optical spectral range and demonstrate the importance of obtaining nearly simultaneous UV and optical spectra for performing accurate analyses of expanding stellar atmospheres (for both novae and supernovae).

Influence of atmospheric transport patterns on xenon detections at the CTBTO radionuclide network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krysta, Monika; Kusmierczyk-Michulec, Jolanta

2016-04-01

In order to fulfil its task of monitoring for signals emanating from nuclear explosions, Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) operates global International Monitoring System (IMS) comprising seismic, infrasound, hydroacoustic and radionuclide measurement networks. At present, 24 among 80 radionuclide stations foreseen by the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) are equipped with certified noble gas measurement systems. Over a past couple of years these systems collected a rich set of measurements of radioactive isotopes of xenon. Atmospheric transport modelling simulations are crucial to an assessment of the origin of xenon detected at the IMS stations. Numerous studies undertaken in the past enabled linking these detections to non Treaty-relevant activities and identifying main contributors. Presence and quantity of xenon isotopes at the stations is hence a result of an interplay of emission patterns and atmospheric circulation. In this presentation we analyse the presence or absence of radioactive xenon at selected stations from an angle of such an interplay. We attempt to classify the stations according to similarity of detection patterns, examine seasonality in those patterns and link them to large scale or local meteorological phenomena. The studies are undertaken using crude hypotheses on emission patterns from known sources and atmospheric transport modelling simulations prepared with the FLEXPART model.

Comparison of Water Vapor Measurements from Ground-based and Space-based GPS Atmospheric Remote Sensing Techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Colon-Pagan, Ian; Kuo, Ying-Hwa

2008-10-01

In this study, we compare precipitable water vapor (PWV) values from ground-based GPS water vapor sensing and COSMIC radio occultation (RO) measurements over the Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico, and United States regions as well as global analyses from NCEP and ECMWF models. The results show good overall agreement; however, the PWV values estimated by ground-based GPS receivers tend to have a slight dry bias for low PWV values and a slight wet bias for higher PWV values, when compared with GPS RO measurements and global analyses. An application of a student T-test indicates that there is a significant difference between both ground- and space-based GPS measured datasets. The dry bias associated with space-based GPS is attributed to the missing low altitude data, where the concentration of water vapor is large. The close agreements between space-based and global analyses are due to the fact that these global analyses assimilate space-based GPS RO data from COSMIC, and the retrieval of water vapor profiles from space-based technique requires the use of global analyses as the first guess. This work is supported by UCAR SOARS and a grant from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Educational Partnership Program under the cooperative agreement NA06OAR4810187.

Applications of Electrified Dust and Dust Devil Electrodynamics to Martian Atmospheric Electricity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harrison, R. G.; Barth, E.; Esposito, F.; Merrison, J.; Montmessin, F.; Aplin, K. L.; Borlina, C.; Berthelier, J. J.; Déprez, G.; Farrell, W. M.; Houghton, I. M. P.; Renno, N. O.; Nicoll, K. A.; Tripathi, S. N.; Zimmerman, M.

2016-11-01

Atmospheric transport and suspension of dust frequently brings electrification, which may be substantial. Electric fields of 10 kV m-1 to 100 kV m-1 have been observed at the surface beneath suspended dust in the terrestrial atmosphere, and some electrification has been observed to persist in dust at levels to 5 km, as well as in volcanic plumes. The interaction between individual particles which causes the electrification is incompletely understood, and multiple processes are thought to be acting. A variation in particle charge with particle size, and the effect of gravitational separation explains to, some extent, the charge structures observed in terrestrial dust storms. More extensive flow-based modelling demonstrates that bulk electric fields in excess of 10 kV m-1 can be obtained rapidly (in less than 10 s) from rotating dust systems (dust devils) and that terrestrial breakdown fields can be obtained. Modelled profiles of electrical conductivity in the Martian atmosphere suggest the possibility of dust electrification, and dust devils have been suggested as a mechanism of charge separation able to maintain current flow between one region of the atmosphere and another, through a global circuit. Fundamental new understanding of Martian atmospheric electricity will result from the ExoMars mission, which carries the DREAMS (Dust characterization, Risk Assessment, and Environment Analyser on the Martian Surface)—MicroARES ( Atmospheric Radiation and Electricity Sensor) instrumentation to Mars in 2016 for the first in situ electrical measurements.

Applications of Electrified Dust and Dust Devil Electrodynamics to Martian Atmospheric Electricity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Harrison, R. G.; Barth, E.; Esposito, F.; Merrison, J.; Montmessin, F.; Aplin, K. L.; Borlina, C.; Berthelier, J J.; Deprez, G.; Farrell, William M.;

Atmospheric modeling related to Thematic Mapper scan geometry. [atmospheric effects on satellite-borne photography of LANDSAT D

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Malila, W. A.; Gleason, J. M.; Cicone, R. C.

1976-01-01

A simulation study was carried out to characterize atmospheric effects in LANDSAT-D Thematic Mapper data. In particular, the objective was to determine if any differences would result from using a linear vs. a conical scanning geometry. Insight also was gained about the overall effect of the atmosphere on Thematic Mapper signals, together with the effects of time of day. An added analysis was made of the geometric potential for direct specular reflections (sun glint). The ERIM multispectral system simulation model was used to compute inband Thematic Mapper radiances, taking into account sensor, atmospheric, and surface characteristics. Separate analyses were carried out for the thermal band and seven bands defined in the reflective spectral region. Reflective-region radiances were computed for 40 deg N, 0 deg, and 40 deg S latitudes; June, Mar., and Dec. days; and 9:30 and 11:00 AM solar times for both linear and conical scan modes. Also, accurate simulations of solar and viewing geometries throughout Thematic Mapper orbits were made. It is shown that the atmosphere plays an important role in determining Thematic Mapper radiances, with atmospheric path radiance being the major component of total radiances for short wavelengths and decreasing in importance as wavelength increases. Path radiance is shown to depend heavily on the direct radiation scattering angle and on haze content. Scan-angle-dependent variations were shown to be substantial, especially for the short-wavelength bands.

Dreaming of Atmospheres

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Waldmann, Ingo

2016-10-01

Radiative transfer retrievals have become the standard in modelling of exoplanetary transmission and emission spectra. Analysing currently available observations of exoplanetary atmospheres often invoke large and correlated parameter spaces that can be difficult to map or constrain.To address these issues, we have developed the Tau-REx (tau-retrieval of exoplanets) retrieval and the RobERt spectral recognition algorithms. Tau-REx is a bayesian atmospheric retrieval framework using Nested Sampling and cluster computing to fully map these large correlated parameter spaces. Nonetheless, data volumes can become prohibitively large and we must often select a subset of potential molecular/atomic absorbers in an atmosphere.In the era of open-source, automated and self-sufficient retrieval algorithms, such manual input should be avoided. User dependent input could, in worst case scenarios, lead to incomplete models and biases in the retrieval. The RobERt algorithm is build to address these issues. RobERt is a deep belief neural (DBN) networks trained to accurately recognise molecular signatures for a wide range of planets, atmospheric thermal profiles and compositions. Using these deep neural networks, we work towards retrieval algorithms that themselves understand the nature of the observed spectra, are able to learn from current and past data and make sensible qualitative preselections of atmospheric opacities to be used for the quantitative stage of the retrieval process.In this talk I will discuss how neural networks and Bayesian Nested Sampling can be used to solve highly degenerate spectral retrieval problems and what 'dreaming' neural networks can tell us about atmospheric characteristics.

Development of a mobile and high-precision atmospheric CO2 monitoring station

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Molnár, M.; Haszpra, L.; Major, I.; Svingor, É.; Veres, M.

2009-04-01

Nowadays one of the most burning questions for the science is the rate and the reasons of the recent climate change. Greenhouse gases (GHG), mainly CO2 and CH4 in the atmosphere could affect the climate of our planet. However, the relation between the amount of atmospheric GHG and the climate is complex, full with interactions and feedbacks partly poorly known even by now. The only way to understand the processes, to trace the changes, to develop and validate mathematical models for forecasts is the extensive, high precision, continuous monitoring of the atmosphere. Fossil fuel CO2 emissions are a major component of the European carbon budget. Separation of the fossil fuel signal from the natural biogenic one in the atmosphere is, therefore, a crucial task for quantifying exchange flux of the continental biosphere through atmospheric observations and inverse modelling. An independent method to estimate trace gas emissions is the top-down approach, using atmospheric CO2 concentration measurements combined with simultaneous radiocarbon (14C) observations. As adding fossil fuel CO2 to the atmosphere, therefore, leads not only to an increase in the CO2 content of the atmosphere but also to a decrease in the 14C/12C ratio in atmospheric CO2. The ATOMKI has more than two decade long experience in atmospheric 14CO2 monitoring. As a part of an ongoing research project being carried out in Hungary to investigate the amount and temporal and spatial variations of fossil fuel CO2 in the near surface atmosphere we developed a mobile and high-precision atmospheric CO2 monitoring station. We describe the layout and the operation of the measuring system which is designed for the continuous, unattended monitoring of CO2 mixing ratio in the near surface atmosphere based on an Ultramat 6F (Siemens) infrared gas analyser. In the station one atmospheric 14CO2 sampling unit is also installed which is developed and widely used since more than one decade by ATOMKI. Mixing ratio of CO2 is measured at 2 m above the ground by the monitoring station. Air is pumped through a 9.5-mm-diameter plastic tube (PFA, Swagelok) to a CO2 analyser located in a container box. Container box (Containex) is 1.5 m wide, 1.2 m deep and 2.2 m high, designed as a mobile measuring room which is field deployable, only electric power is required. A 15 micron pore size stainless steel Tee-Type (Swagelok) particle filter is located at the inlet of the sampler tube. Diaphragm pump (KNF) is used to draw air continuously through the sampling tube from monitoring level at flow rate of ~ 2 L/min. After leaving the pump, the air at 5 psig overpressure enters a glass trap for liquid water that is cooled in a regular household refrigerator, to dry the air to a dew point of 3°-4°C. Liquid water is forced out through an orifice at the bottom of the trap. The air sample inlet tube and the standard gases (Linde Hungary) are connected to miniature solenoid valves (S Series, ASCO Numatics) in a manifold which are normally closed and controlled by the CO2 analyser, which selects which gas is sampled. The air leaving the manifold through its common outlet is further dried to a dew point of about -25°C by passage through a 360-cm-long Nafion drier (Permapure), so that the water vapour interference and dilution effect are <0.1 ppm equivalent CO2. The Nafion drier is purged in a counter flow (300 cm3/min) arrangement using waste sample air that has been further dried by passage through anhydrous CaSO4 (Drierite). Analysis is carried out using an infrared gas analyser Ultramat 6F which is a specialised model for field applications by Siemens. A constant sample flow rate of 300 cm3/min is maintained by a mass flow controller (Aalborg). The reference cell of the CO2 analyzer is continuously flushed with a compressed reference gas of 350 ppm CO2 in synthetic air (Messer Hungarogáz). The basic calibration cycle is 2 hours, consisting of a zero-point calibration and a span calibration. Each calibration is consisting of 2 min flushing and 20 sec signal integration. The usual change of the response function is below 0.2 ppm after 2 hours following a previous calibration. The analyser measures the CO2 mixing ratio in the sample gas in every 3 seconds. Output data are registered by a data logger developed for this application (Special Control Devices). The overall uncertainty of our atmospheric CO2 mixing ratio measurements is < 0.5 ppm (< 0,2 %). This level of error is acceptable for fossil fuel CO2 calculations as the uncertainty of the other required parameter radiocarbon content of atmospheric CO2 is usually 0.3-0.5%. Using the developed mobile and high-precision atmospheric CO2 monitoring station we plan to determine the fossil fuel CO2 amount in the air of different cities and other average industrial regions in Hungary. This research project was supported by Hungarian NSF (Ref No. F69029).

The Impact of ENSO on Trace Gas Composition in the Upper Troposphere to Lower Stratosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oman, Luke; Douglass, Anne; Ziemke, Jerry; Waugh, Darryn Warwick

2016-01-01

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of interannual variability in the tropical troposphere and its effects extend well into the stratosphere. Its impact on atmospheric dynamics and chemistry cause important changes to trace gas constituent distributions. A comprehensive suite of satellite observations, reanalyses, and chemistry climate model simulations are illuminating our understanding of processes like ENSO. Analyses of more than a decade of observations from NASAs Aura and Aqua satellites, combined with simulations from the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model (GEOSCCM) and other Chemistry Climate Modeling Initiative (CCMI) models, and the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2) reanalysis have provided key insights into the response of atmospheric composition to ENSO. While we will primarily focus on ozone and water vapor responses in the upper troposphere to lower stratosphere, the effects of ENSO ripple through many important trace gas species throughout the atmosphere. The very large 2015-2016 El Nino event provides an opportunity to closely examine these impacts with unprecedented observational breadth. An improved quantification of natural climate variations, like those from ENSO, is needed to detect and quantify anthropogenic climate changes.

Atmospheric Retrievals from Exoplanet Observations and Simulations with BART

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harrington, Joseph

This project will determine the observing plans needed to retrieve exoplanet atmospheric composition and thermal profiles over a broad range of planets, stars, instruments, and observing modes. Characterizing exoplanets is hard. The dim planets orbit bright stars, giving orders of magnitude more relative noise than for solar-system planets. Advanced statistical techniques are needed to determine what the data can - and more importantly cannot - say. We therefore developed Bayesian Atmospheric Radiative Transfer (BART). BART explores the parameter space of atmospheric chemical abundances and thermal profiles using Differential-Evolution Markov-Chain Monte Carlo. It generates thousands of candidate spectra, integrates over observational bandpasses, and compares to data, generating a statistical model for an atmosphere's composition and thermal structure. At best, it gives abundances and thermal profiles with uncertainties. At worst, it shows what kinds of planets the data allow. It also gives parameter correlations. BART is open-source, designed for community use and extension (http://github.com/exosports/BART). Three arXived PhD theses (papers in publication) provide technical documentation, tests, and application to Spitzer and HST data. There are detailed user and programmer manuals and community support forums. Exoplanet analysis techniques must be tested against synthetic data, where the answer is known, and vetted by statisticians. Unfortunately, this has rarely been done, and never sufficiently. Several recent papers question the entire body of Spitzer exoplanet observations, because different analyses of the same data give different results. The latest method, pixel-level decorrelation, produces results that diverge from an emerging consensus. We do not know the retrieval problem's strengths and weaknesses relative to low SNR, red noise, low resolution, instrument systematics, or incomplete spectral line lists. In observing eclipses and transits, we assume the planet has uniform composition and the same temperature profile everywhere. We do not know this assumption's impact. While Spitzer and HST have few exoplanet observing modes, JWST will have over 20. Given the signal challenges and the complexity of retrieval, modeling the observations and data analysis is the best way to optimize an observing plan. Our project solves all of these problems. Using only open-source codes, with tools available to the community for their immediate application in JWST and HST proposals and analyses, we will produce a faithful simulator of 2D spectral and photometric frames from each JWST exoplanet mode (WFC3 spatial scan mode works already), including jitter and intrapixel effects. We will extract and calibrate data, analyzing them with BART. Given planetary input spectra for terrestrial, super-Earth, Neptune, and Jupiterclass planets, and a variety of stellar spectra, we will determine the best combination of observations to recover each atmosphere, and the limits where low SNR or spectral coverage produce deceptive results. To facilitate these analyses, we will adapt an existing cloud model to BART, add condensate code now being written to its thermochemical model, include scattering, add a 3D atmosphere module (for dayside occultation mapping and the 1D vs. 3D question), and improve performance and documentation, among other improvements. We will host a web site and community discussions online and at conferences about retrieval issues. We will develop validation tests for radiative-transfer and BART-style retrieval codes, and provide examples to validate others' codes. We will engage the retrieval community in data challenges. We will provide web-enabled tools to specify planets easily for modeling. We will make all of these tools, tests, and comparisons available online so everyone can use them to maximize NASA's investment in high-end observing capabilities to characterize exoplanets.

Detecting fossil fuel emissions patterns from subcontinental regions using North American in situ CO2 measurements.

PubMed

Shiga, Yoichi P; Michalak, Anna M; Gourdji, Sharon M; Mueller, Kim L; Yadav, Vineet

2014-06-28

The ability to monitor fossil fuel carbon dioxide (FFCO 2 ) emissions from subcontinental regions using atmospheric CO 2 observations remains an important but unrealized goal. Here we explore a necessary but not sufficient component of this goal, namely, the basic question of the detectability of FFCO 2 emissions from subcontinental regions. Detectability is evaluated by examining the degree to which FFCO 2 emissions patterns from specific regions are needed to explain the variability observed in high-frequency atmospheric CO 2 observations. Analyses using a CO 2 monitoring network of 35 continuous measurement towers over North America show that FFCO 2 emissions are difficult to detect during nonwinter months. We find that the compounding effects of the seasonality of atmospheric transport patterns and the biospheric CO 2 flux signal dramatically hamper the detectability of FFCO 2 emissions. Results from several synthetic data case studies highlight the need for advancements in data coverage and transport model accuracy if the goal of atmospheric measurement-based FFCO 2 emissions detection and estimation is to be achieved beyond urban scales. Poor detectability of fossil fuel CO 2 emissions from subcontinental regionsDetectability assessed via attribution of emissions patterns in atmospheric dataLoss in detectability due to transport modeling errors and biospheric signal.

Variation objective analyses for cyclone studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Achtemeier, G. L.; Kidder, S. Q.; Ochs, H. T.

1985-01-01

The objectives were to: (1) develop an objective analysis technique that will maximize the information content of data available from diverse sources, with particular emphasis on the incorporation of observations from satellites with those from more traditional immersion techniques; and (2) to develop a diagnosis of the state of the synoptic scale atmosphere on a much finer scale over a much broader region than is presently possible to permit studies of the interactions and energy transfers between global, synoptic and regional scale atmospheric processes. The variational objective analysis model consists of the two horizontal momentum equations, the hydrostatic equation, and the integrated continuity equation for a dry hydrostatic atmosphere. Preliminary tests of the model with the SESMAE I data set are underway for 12 GMT 10 April 1979. At this stage of purpose of the analysis is not the diagnosis of atmospheric structures but rather the validation of the model. Model runs for rawinsonde data and with the precision modulus weights set to force most of the adjustment of the wind field to the mass field have produced 90 to 95 percent reductions in the imbalance of the initial data after only 4-cycles through the Euler-Lagrange equations. Sensitivity tests for linear stability of the 11 Euler-Lagrange equations that make up the VASP Model 1 indicate that there will be a lower limit to the scales of motion that can be resolved by this method. Linear stability criteria are violated where there is large horizontal wind shear near the upper tropospheric jet.

Evaluation of the MACC operational forecast system - potential and challenges of global near-real-time modelling with respect to reactive gases in the troposphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wagner, A.; Blechschmidt, A.-M.; Bouarar, I.; Brunke, E.-G.; Clerbaux, C.; Cupeiro, M.; Cristofanelli, P.; Eskes, H.; Flemming, J.; Flentje, H.; George, M.; Gilge, S.; Hilboll, A.; Inness, A.; Kapsomenakis, J.; Richter, A.; Ries, L.; Spangl, W.; Stein, O.; Weller, R.; Zerefos, C.

2015-12-01

The Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate (MACC) project represents the European Union's Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) (http://www.copernicus.eu/), which became fully operational during 2015. The global near-real-time MACC model production run for aerosol and reactive gases provides daily analyses and 5-day forecasts of atmospheric composition fields. It is the only assimilation system worldwide that is operational to produce global analyses and forecasts of reactive gases and aerosol fields. We have investigated the ability of the MACC analysis system to simulate tropospheric concentrations of reactive gases covering the period between 2009 and 2012. A validation was performed based on carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and ozone (O3) surface observations from the Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) network, the O3 surface observations from the European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP) and, furthermore, NO2 tropospheric columns, as well as CO total columns, derived from satellite sensors. The MACC system proved capable of reproducing reactive gas concentrations with consistent quality; however, with a seasonally dependent bias compared to surface and satellite observations - for northern hemispheric surface O3 mixing ratios, positive biases appear during the warm seasons and negative biases during the cold parts of the year, with monthly modified normalised mean biases (MNMBs) ranging between -30 and 30 % at the surface. Model biases are likely to result from difficulties in the simulation of vertical mixing at night and deficiencies in the model's dry deposition parameterisation. Observed tropospheric columns of NO2 and CO could be reproduced correctly during the warm seasons, but are mostly underestimated by the model during the cold seasons, when anthropogenic emissions are at their highest level, especially over the US, Europe and Asia. Monthly MNMBs of the satellite data evaluation range from values between -110 and 40 % for NO2 and at most -20 % for CO, over the investigated regions. The underestimation is likely to result from a combination of errors concerning the dry deposition parameterisation and certain limitations in the current emission inventories, together with an insufficiently established seasonality in the emissions.

Tau-REx: A new look at the retrieval of exoplanetary atmospheres

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Waldmann, Ingo

2014-11-01

The field of exoplanetary spectroscopy is as fast moving as it is new. With an increasing amount of space and ground based instruments obtaining data on a large set of extrasolar planets we are indeed entering the era of exoplanetary characterisation. Permanently at the edge of instrument feasibility, it is as important as it is difficult to find the most optimal and objective methodologies to analysing and interpreting current data. This is particularly true for smaller and fainter Earth and Super-Earth type planets.For low to mid signal to noise (SNR) observations, we are prone to two sources of biases: 1) Prior selection in the data reduction and analysis; 2) Prior constraints on the spectral retrieval. In Waldmann et al. (2013), Morello et al. (2014) and Waldmann (2012, 2014) we have shown a prior-free approach to data analysis based on non-parametric machine learning techniques. Following these approaches we will present a new take on the spectral retrieval of extrasolar planets. Tau-REx (tau-retrieval of exoplanets) is a new line-by-line, atmospheric retrieval framework. In the past the decision on what opacity sources go into an atmospheric model were usually user defined. Manual input can lead to model biases and poor convergence of the atmospheric model to the data. In Tau-REx we have set out to solve this. Through custom built pattern recognition software, Tau-REx is able to rapidly identify the most likely atmospheric opacities from a large number of possible absorbers/emitters (ExoMol or HiTran data bases) and non-parametrically constrain the prior space for the Bayesian retrieval. Unlike other (MCMC based) techniques, Tau-REx is able to fully integrate high-dimensional log-likelihood spaces and to calculate the full Bayesian Evidence of the atmospheric models. We achieve this through a combination of Nested Sampling and a high degree of code parallelisation. This allows for an exact and unbiased Bayesian model selection and a fully mapping of potential model-data degeneracies. Together with non-parametric data de-trending of exoplanetary spectra, we can reach an un- precedented level of objectivity in our atmospheric characterisation of these foreign worlds.

Vertical propagation of information in a middle atmosphere data assimilation system by gravity-wave drag feedbacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ren, Shuzhan; Polavarapu, Saroja M.; Shepherd, Theodore G.

2008-03-01

The mesospheric response to the 2002 Antarctic Stratospheric Sudden Warming (SSW) is analysed using the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model Data Assimilation System (CMAM-DAS), where it represents a vertical propagation of information from the observations into the data-free mesosphere. The CMAM-DAS simulates a cooling in the lowest part of the mesosphere which is accomplished by resolved motions, but which is extended to the mid- to upper mesosphere by the response of the model's non-orographic gravity-wave drag parameterization to the change in zonal winds. The basic mechanism is that elucidated by Holton consisting of a net eastward wave-drag anomaly in the mesosphere during the SSW, although in this case there is a net upwelling in the polar mesosphere. Since the zonal-mean mesospheric response is shown to be predictable, this demonstrates that variations in the mesospheric state can be slaved to the lower atmosphere through gravity-wave drag.

Comparison of Polar Motion Excitation Series Derived from GRACE and from Analyses of Geophysical Fluids

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nastula, J.; Ponte, R. M.; Salstein, D. A.

2007-01-01

Three sets of degree-2, order-1 harmonics of the gravity field, derived from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data processed at the Center for Space Research (CSR), Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) and GeoforschungsZentrum (GFZ), are used to compute polar motion excitation functions X1 and X2. The GFZ and JPL excitations and the CSR X2, excitation compare generally well with geodetically observed excitation after removal of effects of oceanic currents and atmospheric winds. The agreement considerably exceeds that from previous GRACE data releases. For the JPL series, levels of correlation with the geodetic observations and the variance explained are comparable to, but still lower than, those obtained independently from available models and analyses of the atmosphere, ocean, and land hydrology. Improvements in data quality of gravity missions are still needed to deliver even tighter constraints on mass-related excitation of polar motion.

Comparison of polar motion excitation series derived from GRACE and from analyses of geophysical fluids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nastula, J.; Ponte, R. M.; Salstein, D. A.

2007-06-01

Three sets of degree-2, order-1 harmonics of the gravity field, derived from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data processed at the Center for Space Research (CSR), Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) and GeoforschungsZentrum (GFZ), are used to compute polar motion excitation functions χ 1 and χ 2. The GFZ and JPL excitations and the CSR χ 2 excitation compare generally well with geodetically observed excitation after removal of effects of oceanic currents and atmospheric winds. The agreement considerably exceeds that from previous GRACE data releases. For the JPL series, levels of correlation with the geodetic observations and the variance explained are comparable to, but still lower than, those obtained independently from available models and analyses of the atmosphere, ocean, and land hydrology. Improvements in data quality of gravity missions are still needed to deliver even tighter constraints on mass-related excitation of polar motion.

Aerocapture Systems Analysis for a Neptune Mission

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lockwood, Mary Kae; Edquist, Karl T.; Starr, Brett R.; Hollis, Brian R.; Hrinda, Glenn A.; Bailey, Robert W.; Hall, Jeffery L.; Spilker, Thomas R.; Noca, Muriel A.; O'Kongo, N.

2006-01-01

A Systems Analysis was completed to determine the feasibility, benefit and risk of an aeroshell aerocapture system for Neptune and to identify technology gaps and technology performance goals. The systems analysis includes the following disciplines: science; mission design; aeroshell configuration; interplanetary navigation analyses; atmosphere modeling; computational fluid dynamics for aerodynamic performance and aeroheating environment; stability analyses; guidance development; atmospheric flight simulation; thermal protection system design; mass properties; structures; spacecraft design and packaging; and mass sensitivities. Results show that aerocapture is feasible and performance is adequate for the Neptune mission. Aerocapture can deliver 1.4 times more mass to Neptune orbit than an all-propulsive system for the same launch vehicle and results in a 3-4 year reduction in trip time compared to all-propulsive systems. Enabling technologies for this mission include TPS manufacturing; and aerothermodynamic methods for determining coupled 3-D convection, radiation and ablation aeroheating rates and loads.

On-ground casualty risk reduction by structural design for demise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lemmens, Stijn; Funke, Quirin; Krag, Holger

2015-06-01

In recent years, awareness concerning the on-ground risk posed by un-controlled re-entering space systems has increased. On average over the past decade, an object with mass above 800 kg re-enters every week from which only a few, e.g. ESA's GOCE in 2013 and NASA's UARS in 2011, appeared prominent in international media. Space agencies and nations have discussed requirements to limit the on-ground risk for future missions. To meet the requirements, the amount of debris falling back on Earth has to be limited in number, mass and size. Design for demise (D4D) refers to all measures taken in the design of a space object to increase the potential for demise of the object and its components during re-entry. SCARAB (Spacecraft Atmospheric Re-entry and Break-Up) is ESA's high-fidelity tool which analyses the thermal and structural effects of atmospheric re-entry on spacecraft with a finite-element approach. For this study, a model of a representative satellite is developed in SCARAB to serve as test-bed for D4D analyses on a structural level. The model is used as starting point for different D4D approaches based on increasing the exposure of the satellite components to the aero-thermal environment, as a way to speed up the demise. Statistical bootstrapping is applied to the resulting on-ground fragment lists in order to compare the different re-entry scenarios and to determine the uncertainties of the results. Moreover, the bootstrap results can be used to analyse the casualty risk estimator from a theoretical point of view. The risk reductions for the analysed D4D techniques are presented with respect to the reference scenario for the modelled representative satellite.

Sensitivity of ocean model simulation in the coastal ocean to the resolution of the meteorological forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Feng; Shapiro, Georgy; Thain, Richard

2013-04-01

The quality of ocean simulations depends on a number of factors such as approximations in governing equations, errors introduced by the numerical scheme, uncertainties in input parameters, and atmospheric forcing. The identification of relations between the uncertainties in input and output data is still a challenge for the development of numerical models. The impacts of ocean variables on ocean models are still not well known (e.g., Kara et al., 2009). Given the considerable importance of the atmospheric forcing to the air-sea interaction, it is essential that researchers in ocean modelling work need a good understanding about how sensitive the atmospheric forcing is to variations of model results, which is beneficial to the development of ocean models. Also, it provides a proper way to choose the atmospheric forcing in ocean modelling applications. Our previous study (Shapiro et al, 2011) has shown that the basin-wide circulation pattern and the temperature structure in the Black Sea produced by the same model is significantly dependent on the source of the meteorological input, giving remarkably different responses. For the purpose of this study we have chosen the Celtic Sea where high resolution meteo data are available from the UK Met office since 2006. The Celtic Sea is tidally dominated water basin, with the tidal stream amplitude varying from 0.25m/s in the southwest to 2 m/s in the Bristol Channel. It is also filled with mesoscale eddies which contribute to the formation of the residual (tidally averaged) circulation pattern (Young et al, 2003). The sea is strongly stratified from April to November, which adds to the formation of density driven currents. In this paper we analyse how sensitive the model output is to variations in the spatial resolution of meteorological using low (1.6°) and high (0.11°) resolution meteo forcing, giving the quantitative relation between variations of met forcing and the resulted differences of model results, as well as identifying the causes. The length scales of most energetic dynamic features in both ocean and atmosphere are defined by the Rossby radius of deformation, which is about 1000 km (a typical size of a cyclone) in the atmosphere while only 10-20 km (a size of a mesoscale eddy) in a shallow sea. However sub-mesoscale atmospheric patterns such as patchiness in the cloud cover could result in smaller scale variations of both the wind and solar radiation hence creating a direct link of these smaller atmospheric features with the ocean mesoscale variability. The simulation has been performed using a version of POLCOMS numerical model (Enriquez et al, 2005). Tidal boundary conditions were taken from the Oregon State University European Shelf Tidal Model (Egbert et al, 2010) and the temperature/ salinity initial fields and boundary conditions were taken from the World Ocean Database (Boyer et al, 2004). The paper discusses what elements of the circulation and water column structure are mostly sensitive to the meteo-fields resolution. References Kara, A.B., Wallcraft, A.J., Hurlburt, H.E., Loh, W.-Y., 2009. Which surface atmospheric variable drives the seasonal cycle of sea surface temperature over the global ocean? Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 114, D05101. Boyer, .T, S. Levitus, H. Garcia, R. Locarnini, C. Stephens, and J. Antonov, T. Boyer, S. Levitus, H. Garcia, R. Locarnini, C. Stephens, and J. Antonov, 2004. Objective Analyses of Annual, Seasonal, and Monthly Temperature and Salinity for the World Ocean on a ¼ Grid. International Journal of Climatology, 25, 931-945. Egbert, G. D., S. Y. Erofeeva, and R. D. Ray, 2010. Assimilation of altimetry data for nonlinear shallow-water tides: quarter-diurnal tides of the Northwest European Shelf, Continental Shelf Research, 30, 668-679. Enriquez, C. E., G. I. Shapiro, A. J. Souza, and A. G. Zatsepin, 2005. Hydrodynamic modelling of mesoscale eddies in the Black Sea. Ocean Dyn., 55, 476-489. Georgy Shapiro, Dmitry Aleynik , Andrei Zatsepin , Valentina Khan, Valery Prostakishin , Tatiana Akivis , Vladimir Belokopytov , Anton Sviridov , and Vladimir Piotukh . 2011. Response of water temperature in the Black Sea to atmospheric forcing: the sensitivity study. Geophysical Research Abstracts. Vol. 13, EGU2011-933

Polar motion excitation analysis due to global continental water redistribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernandez, L.; Schuh, H.

2006-10-01

We present the results obtained when studying the hydrological excitation of the Earth‘s wobble due to global redistribution of continental water storage. This work was performed in two steps. First, we computed the hydrological angular momentum (HAM) time series based on the global hydrological model LaD (Land Dynamics model) for the period 1980 till 2004. Then, we compared the effectiveness of this excitation by analysing the residuals of the geodetic time series after removing atmospheric and oceanic contributions with the respective hydrological ones. The emphasis was put on low frequency variations. We also present a comparison of HAM time series from LaD with respect to that one from a global model based on the assimilated soil moisture and snow accumulation data from NCEP/NCAR (The National Center for Environmental Prediction/The National Center for Atmospheric Research) reanalysis. Finally, we evaluate the performance of LaD model in closing the polar motion budget at seasonal periods in comparison with the NCEP and the Land Data Assimilation System (LDAS) models.

Analysis of the potential of near-ground measurements of CO2 and CH4 in London, UK, for the monitoring of city-scale emissions using an atmospheric transport model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boon, Alex; Broquet, Grégoire; Clifford, Deborah J.; Chevallier, Frédéric; Butterfield, David M.; Pison, Isabelle; Ramonet, Michel; Paris, Jean-Daniel; Ciais, Philippe

2016-06-01

Carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) mole fractions were measured at four near-ground sites located in and around London during the summer of 2012 with a view to investigating the potential of assimilating such measurements in an atmospheric inversion system for the monitoring of the CO2 and CH4 emissions in the London area. These data were analysed and compared with simulations using a modelling framework suited to building an inversion system: a 2 km horizontal resolution south of England configuration of the transport model CHIMERE driven by European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) meteorological forcing, coupled to a 1 km horizontal resolution emission inventory (the UK National Atmospheric Emission Inventory). First comparisons reveal that local sources, which cannot be represented in the model at a 2 km resolution, have a large impact on measurements. We evaluate methods to filter out the impact of some of the other critical sources of discrepancies between the measurements and the model simulation except that of the errors in the emission inventory, which we attempt to isolate. Such a separation of the impact of errors in the emission inventory should make it easier to identify the corrections that should be applied to the inventory. Analysis is supported by observations from meteorological sites around the city and a 3-week period of atmospheric mixing layer height estimations from lidar measurements. The difficulties of modelling the mixing layer depth and thus CO2 and CH4 concentrations during the night, morning and late afternoon lead to focusing on the afternoon period for all further analyses. The discrepancies between observations and model simulations are high for both CO2 and CH4 (i.e. their root mean square (RMS) is between 8 and 12 parts per million (ppm) for CO2 and between 30 and 55 parts per billion (ppb) for CH4 at a given site). By analysing the gradients between the urban sites and a suburban or rural reference site, we are able to decrease the impact of uncertainties in the fluxes and transport outside the London area and in the model domain boundary conditions. We are thus able to better focus attention on the signature of London urban CO2 and CH4 emissions in the atmospheric CO2 and CH4 concentrations. This considerably improves the statistical agreement between the model and observations for CO2 (with model-data RMS discrepancies that are between 3 and 7 ppm) and to a lesser degree for CH4 (with model-data RMS discrepancies that are between 29 and 38 ppb). Between one of the urban sites and either the rural or suburban reference site, selecting the gradients during periods wherein the reference site is upwind of the urban site further decreases the statistics of the discrepancies in general, though not systematically. In a further attempt to focus on the signature of the city anthropogenic emission in the mole fraction measurements, we use a theoretical ratio of gradients of carbon monoxide (CO) to gradients of CO2 from fossil fuel emissions in the London area to diagnose observation-based fossil fuel CO2 gradients, and compare them with the fossil fuel CO2 gradients simulated with CHIMERE. This estimate increases the consistency between the model and the measurements when considering only one of the two urban sites, even though the two sites are relatively close to each other within the city. While this study evaluates and highlights the merit of different approaches for increasing the consistency between the mesoscale model and the near-ground data, and while it manages to decrease the random component of the analysed model-data discrepancies to an extent that should not be prohibitive to extracting the signal from the London urban emissions, large biases, the sign of which depends on the measurement sites, remain in the final model-data discrepancies. Such biases are likely related to local emissions to which the urban near-ground sites are highly sensitive. This questions our current ability to exploit urban near-ground data for the atmospheric inversion of city emissions based on models at spatial resolution coarser than 2 km. Several measurement and modelling concepts are discussed to overcome this challenge.

Interaction of the Climate System and the Solid Earth: Analysis of Observations and Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bryan, Frank

2001-01-01

Under SENH funding we have carried out a number of diverse analyses of interactions of the climate system (atmosphere, ocean, land surface hydrology) with the solid Earth. While the original work plan emphasized analysis of excitation of variations in Earth rotation, with a lesser emphasis on time variable gravity, opportunities that developed during the proposal period in connection with preparations for the GRACE mission led us to a more balanced effort between these two topics. The results of our research are outlined in several topical sections: (1) oceanic excitation of variations in Earth rotation; (2) short period atmosphere-ocean excitation of variations in Earth rotation; (3) analysis of coupled climate system simulation; (4) observing system simulation studies for GRACE mission design; and (5) oceanic response to atmospheric pressure loading.

Verification and Validation of a Navy ESPC Hindcast with Loosely Coupled Data Assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Metzger, E. J.; Barton, N. P.; Smedstad, O. M.; Ruston, B. C.; Wallcraft, A. J.; Whitcomb, T. R.; Ridout, J. A.; Franklin, D. S.; Zamudio, L.; Posey, P. G.; Reynolds, C. A.; Phelps, M.

2016-12-01

The US Navy is developing an Earth System Prediction Capability (ESPC) to provide global environmental information to meet Navy and Department of Defense (DoD) operations and planning needs from the upper atmosphere to under the sea. It will be a fully coupled global atmosphere/ocean/ice/wave/land prediction system providing daily deterministic forecasts out to 16 days at high horizontal and vertical resolution, and daily probabilistic forecasts out to 45 days at lower resolution. The system will run at the Navy DoD Supercomputing Resource Center with an initial operational capability scheduled for the end of FY18 and the final operational capability scheduled for FY22. The individual model and data assimilation components include: atmosphere - NAVy Global Environmental Model (NAVGEM) and Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) Atmospheric Variational Data Assimilation System - Accelerated Representer (NAVDAS-AR); ocean - HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) and Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation (NCODA); ice - Community Ice CodE (CICE) and NCODA; WAVEWATCH III™ and NCODA; and land - NAVGEM Land Surface Model (LSM). Currently, NAVGEM/HYCOM/CICE are three-way coupled and each model component is cycling with its respective assimilation scheme. The assimilation systems do not communicate with each other, but future plans call for these to be coupled as well. NAVGEM runs with a 6-hour update cycle while HYCOM/CICE run with a 24-hour update cycle. The T359L50 NAVGEM/0.08° HYCOM/0.08° CICE system has been integrated in hindcast mode and verification/validation metrics have been computed against unassimilated observations and against stand-alone versions of NAVGEM and HYCOM/CICE. This presentation will focus on typical operational diagnostics for atmosphere, ocean, and ice analyses including 500 hPa atmospheric height anomalies, low-level winds, temperature/salinity ocean depth profiles, ocean acoustical proxies, sea ice edge, and sea ice drift. Overall, the global coupled ESPC system is performing with comparable skill to the stand-alone systems at the nowcast time.

Seveso 1986, Chernobyl 1976: a physicist' look at 2 ecological disasters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ratti, S.

2004-05-01

Seveso suffered a chemical accident with a severe loss of supertoxic material (TCCD) released in the atmosphere; Chernobyl was a world known nuclear accident. The pollution induced by the two accident are analysed in term of fractal models. The first case involved a limited micro ecological system; the second one spread over a macro ecological system. The pollution is reproduced by means of simple Fractal Sum of Pulses models in the Seveso region; for the Chernobyl accident in northern Italy and in several european Countries. The 2 accidents are also analysed in terms of Universal Multifractals showing that thethe parameters α and C1 are those describing respectively rainfall (Seveso) and cloud formation (Chernobyl).

Simulation of Tropical Biomass Burning

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hamill, Patrick; Guo, Zitian

1996-01-01

The research objectives that were achieved during the course of our studies include the following: (1) Over the last few years, a model has been developed in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Dynamics Branch at Ames Research Center in collaboration with the Physics Department at San Jose State University. It is referred to as the Global/Regional Atmospheric Chemistry Event Simulator (GRACES). Currently, the GRACES model system combines an atmospheric chemistry and transport model, and a regional mesoscale meteorological model. Therefore this system is suitable for simulating the conditions observed by the tropical observation missions, such as the Pacific Exploratory Mission in the 'Tropics (PEM-Tropics), Study of Ozone and Nitrogen oxides Experiment (SONEX), and other periods. Specifically, the research carried out included the evaluation of the behavior of several components of the MM5 (I.e., Meteorological Model 5, version 2) and the GRACES combined modeling system. We initiated research on (a) the ability of the MM5 model to assimilate downward vertical velocities at least as high as the analyses, (b) the ability of the Graces model to incorporate the vertical velocities from MM5, and (c) other factors related to transport patterns required to transport CO in the observed manner. We carried out improved calculations of the transport of tracers for both NASA airborne missions, SONEX and PEM-Tropics. We also made improved source strength estimates fopr isoprene dust, and similar emissions from the Earths surface. This required the use of newly available databases on the Earth's surface and vegetation. We completed atmospheric chemistry simulations of radicals and nitrogen oxide species. We have greatly improved the handling of cumulonimnbus convection by modifing an existing scheme.

Summer U.S. Surface Air Temperature Variability: Controlling Factors and AMIP Simulation Biases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Merrifield, A.; Xie, S. P.

2016-02-01

This study documents and investigates biases in simulating summer surface air temperature (SAT) variability over the continental U.S. in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP). Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) and multivariate regression analyses are used to assess the relative importance of circulation and the land surface feedback at setting summer SAT over a 30-year period (1979-2008). In observations, regions of high SAT variability are closely associated with midtropospheric highs and subsidence, consistent with adiabatic theory (Meehl and Tebaldi 2004, Lau and Nath 2012). Preliminary analysis shows the majority of the AMIP models feature high SAT variability over the central U.S., displaced south and/or west of observed centers of action (COAs). SAT COAs in models tend to be concomitant with regions of high sensible heat flux variability, suggesting an excessive land surface feedback in these models modulate U.S. summer SAT. Additionally, tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) play a role in forcing the leading EOF mode for summer SAT, in concert with internal atmospheric variability. There is evidence that models respond to different SST patterns than observed. Addressing issues with the bulk land surface feedback and the SST-forced component of atmospheric variability may be key to improving model skill in simulating summer SAT variability over the U.S.

Earth system sensitivity inferred from Pliocene modelling and data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lunt, D.J.; Haywood, A.M.; Schmidt, G.A.; Salzmann, U.; Valdes, P.J.; Dowsett, H.J.

2010-01-01

Quantifying the equilibrium response of global temperatures to an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations is one of the cornerstones of climate research. Components of the Earths climate system that vary over long timescales, such as ice sheets and vegetation, could have an important effect on this temperature sensitivity, but have often been neglected. Here we use a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model to simulate the climate of the mid-Pliocene warm period (about three million years ago), and analyse the forcings and feedbacks that contributed to the relatively warm temperatures. Furthermore, we compare our simulation with proxy records of mid-Pliocene sea surface temperature. Taking these lines of evidence together, we estimate that the response of the Earth system to elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations is 30-50% greater than the response based on those fast-adjusting components of the climate system that are used traditionally to estimate climate sensitivity. We conclude that targets for the long-term stabilization of atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations aimed at preventing a dangerous human interference with the climate system should take into account this higher sensitivity of the Earth system. ?? 2010 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.

Using model analyses and surface-atmosphere exchange measurements from the Howland AmeriFlux Site in Maine, USA, to improve understanding of forest ecosystem C cycling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hollinger, David Y.; Davidson, Eric A.; Richardson, Andrew D.

2013-03-25

Summary of research carried out under Interagency Agreement DE-AI02-07ER64355 with the USDA Forest Service at the Howland Forest AmeriFlux site in central Maine. Includes a list of publications resulting in part or whole from this support.

Organic chemistry in space

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, R. D.

1977-01-01

Organic cosmochemistry, organic materials in space exploration, and biochemistry of man in space are briefly surveyed. A model of Jupiter's atmosphere is considered, and the search for organic molecules in the solar system and in interstellar space is discussed. Materials and analytical techniques relevant to space exploration are indicated, and the blood and urine analyses performed on Skylab are described.

Spectral Energetics Diagnoses and FGGE Special Observing Periods and Energetics Analyses of Forecast Experiments with GLAS GCM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kung, E. C.

1984-01-01

Energetics characteristics of Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheric Sciences (GLAS) General Circulation Models (GCM) as they are reflected on the First GARD GLobal Experiment (FGGE) analysis data set are discussed. Energetics descriptions of GLAS GCM forecast experiments are discussed as well as Eneretics response of GLAS GCM climatic simulation experiments.

Sensitivity model study of regional mercury dispersion in the atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gencarelli, Christian N.; Bieser, Johannes; Carbone, Francesco; De Simone, Francesco; Hedgecock, Ian M.; Matthias, Volker; Travnikov, Oleg; Yang, Xin; Pirrone, Nicola

2017-01-01

Atmospheric deposition is the most important pathway by which Hg reaches marine ecosystems, where it can be methylated and enter the base of food chain. The deposition, transport and chemical interactions of atmospheric Hg have been simulated over Europe for the year 2013 in the framework of the Global Mercury Observation System (GMOS) project, performing 14 different model sensitivity tests using two high-resolution three-dimensional chemical transport models (CTMs), varying the anthropogenic emission datasets, atmospheric Br input fields, Hg oxidation schemes and modelling domain boundary condition input. Sensitivity simulation results were compared with observations from 28 monitoring sites in Europe to assess model performance and particularly to analyse the influence of anthropogenic emission speciation and the Hg0(g) atmospheric oxidation mechanism. The contribution of anthropogenic Hg emissions, their speciation and vertical distribution are crucial to the simulated concentration and deposition fields, as is also the choice of Hg0(g) oxidation pathway. The areas most sensitive to changes in Hg emission speciation and the emission vertical distribution are those near major sources, but also the Aegean and the Black seas, the English Channel, the Skagerrak Strait and the northern German coast. Considerable influence was found also evident over the Mediterranean, the North Sea and Baltic Sea and some influence is seen over continental Europe, while this difference is least over the north-western part of the modelling domain, which includes the Norwegian Sea and Iceland. The Br oxidation pathway produces more HgII(g) in the lower model levels, but overall wet deposition is lower in comparison to the simulations which employ an O3 / OH oxidation mechanism. The necessity to perform continuous measurements of speciated Hg and to investigate the local impacts of Hg emissions and deposition, as well as interactions dependent on land use and vegetation, forests, peat bogs, etc., is highlighted in this study.

Controlled meteorological (CMET) balloon profiling of the Arctic atmospheric boundary layer around Spitsbergen compared to a mesoscale model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roberts, T. J.; Dütsch, M.; Hole, L. R.; Voss, P. B.

2015-10-01

Observations from CMET (Controlled Meteorological) balloons are analyzed in combination with mesoscale model simulations to provide insights into tropospheric meteorological conditions (temperature, humidity, wind-speed) around Svalbard, European High Arctic. Five Controlled Meteorological (CMET) balloons were launched from Ny-Ålesund in Svalbard over 5-12 May 2011, and measured vertical atmospheric profiles above Spitsbergen Island and over coastal areas to both the east and west. One notable CMET flight achieved a suite of 18 continuous soundings that probed the Arctic marine boundary layer over a period of more than 10 h. The CMET profiles are compared to simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model using nested grids and three different boundary layer schemes. Variability between the three model schemes was typically smaller than the discrepancies between the model runs and the observations. Over Spitsbergen, the CMET flights identified temperature inversions and low-level jets (LLJ) that were not captured by the model. Nevertheless, the model largely reproduced time-series obtained from the Ny-Ålesund meteorological station, with exception of surface winds during the LLJ. Over sea-ice east of Svalbard the model underestimated potential temperature and overestimated wind-speed compared to the CMET observations. This is most likely due to the full sea-ice coverage assumed by the model, and consequent underestimation of ocean-atmosphere exchange in the presence of leads or fractional coverage. The suite of continuous CMET soundings over a sea-ice free region to the northwest of Svalbard are analysed spatially and temporally, and compared to the model. The observed along-flight daytime increase in relative humidity is interpreted in terms of the diurnal cycle, and in the context of marine and terrestrial air-mass influences. Analysis of the balloon trajectory during the CMET soundings identifies strong wind-shear, with a low-level channeled flow. The study highlights the challenges of modelling the Arctic atmosphere, especially in coastal zones with varying topography, sea-ice and surface conditions. In this context, CMET balloons provide a valuable technology for profiling the free atmosphere and boundary layer in remote regions where few other observations are available for model validation.

Data Assimilation using Artificial Neural Networks for the global FSU atmospheric model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cintra, Rosangela; Cocke, Steven; Campos Velho, Haroldo

2015-04-01

Data assimilation is the process by which measurements and model predictions are combined to obtain an accurate representation of the state of the modeled system. Uncertainty is the characteristic of the atmosphere, coupled with inevitable inadequacies in observations and computer models and increase errors in weather forecasts. Data assimilation is a technique to generate an initial condition to a weather or climate forecasts. This paper shows the results of a data assimilation technique using artificial neural networks (ANN) to obtain the initial condition to the atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) for the Florida State University in USA. The Local Ensemble Transform Kalman filter (LETKF) is implemented with Florida State University Global Spectral Model (FSUGSM). The ANN data assimilation is made to emulate the initial condition from LETKF to run the FSUGSM. LETKF is a version of Kalman filter with Monte-Carlo ensembles of short-term forecasts to solve the data assimilation problem. The model FSUGSM is a multilevel (27 vertical levels) spectral primitive equation model with a vertical sigma coordinate. All variables are expanded horizontally in a truncated series of spherical harmonic functions (at resolution T63) and a transform technique is applied to calculate the physical processes in real space. The LETKF data assimilation experiments are based in synthetic observations data (surface pressure, absolute temperature, zonal component wind, meridional component wind and humidity). For the ANN data assimilation scheme, we use Multilayer Perceptron (MLP-DA) with supervised training algorithm where ANN receives input vectors with their corresponding response or target output from LETKF scheme. An automatic tool that finds the optimal representation to these ANNs configures the MLP-DA in this experiment. After the training process, the scheme MLP-DA is seen as a function of data assimilation where the inputs are observations and a short-range forecast to each model grid point. The ANNs were trained with data from each month of 2001, 2002, 2003, and 2004. A hind-casting experiment for data assimilation cycle using MLP-DA was performed with synthetic observations for January 2005. The numerical results demonstrate the effectiveness of the ANN technique for atmospheric data assimilation, since the analyses (initial conditions) have similar quality to LETKF analyses. The major advantage of using MLP-DA is the computational performance, which is faster than LETKF. The reduced computational cost allows the inclusion of greater number of observations and new data sources and the use of high resolution of models, which ensures the accuracy of analysis and of its weather prediction

Development of fine-resolution analyses and expanded large-scale forcing properties. Part II: Scale-awareness and application to single-column model experiments

DOE PAGES

Feng, Sha; Vogelmann, Andrew M.; Li, Zhijin; ...

2015-01-20

Fine-resolution three-dimensional fields have been produced using the Community Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) data assimilation system for the U.S. Department of Energy’s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program (ARM) Southern Great Plains region. The GSI system is implemented in a multi-scale data assimilation framework using the Weather Research and Forecasting model at a cloud-resolving resolution of 2 km. From the fine-resolution three-dimensional fields, large-scale forcing is derived explicitly at grid-scale resolution; a subgrid-scale dynamic component is derived separately, representing subgrid-scale horizontal dynamic processes. Analyses show that the subgrid-scale dynamic component is often a major component over the large-scale forcing for grid scalesmore » larger than 200 km. The single-column model (SCM) of the Community Atmospheric Model version 5 (CAM5) is used to examine the impact of the grid-scale and subgrid-scale dynamic components on simulated precipitation and cloud fields associated with a mesoscale convective system. It is found that grid-scale size impacts simulated precipitation, resulting in an overestimation for grid scales of about 200 km but an underestimation for smaller grids. The subgrid-scale dynamic component has an appreciable impact on the simulations, suggesting that grid-scale and subgrid-scale dynamic components should be considered in the interpretation of SCM simulations.« less

Coordinated profiling of stratospheric intrusions and transported pollution by the Tropospheric Ozone Lidar Network (TOLNet) and NASA Alpha Jet experiment (AJAX): Observations and comparison to HYSPLIT, RAQMS, and FLEXPART

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Langford, A. O.; Alvarez, R. J.; Brioude, J.; Evan, S.; Iraci, L. T.; Kirgis, G.; Kuang, S.; Leblanc, T.; Newchurch, M. J.; Pierce, R. B.; Senff, C. J.; Yates, E. L.

2018-02-01

Ground-based lidars and ozonesondes belonging to the NASA-supported Tropospheric Ozone Lidar Network (TOLNet) are used in conjunction with the NASA Alpha Jet Atmospheric eXperiment (AJAX) to investigate the transport of stratospheric ozone and entrained pollution into the lower troposphere above the United States on May 24-25, 2013. TOLNet and AJAX measurements made in California, Nevada, and Alabama are compared to tropospheric ozone retrievals from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), to back trajectories from the NOAA Air Resources Laboratory (ARL) Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model, and to analyses from the NOAA/NESDIS Real-time Air Quality Modeling System (RAQMS) and FLEXPART particle dispersion model. The measurements and model analyses show much deeper descent of ozone-rich upper tropospheric/lower stratospheric air above the Desert Southwest than above the Southeast, and comparisons to surface measurements from regulatory monitors reporting to the U.S. EPA Air Quality System (AQS) suggest that there was a much greater surface impact in the Southwest including exceedances of the 2008 National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) of 0.075 ppm in both Southern California and Nevada. Our analysis demonstrates the potential benefits to be gained by supplementing the existing surface ozone network with coordinated upper air observations by TOLNet.

Paloma: In-Situ Measurement of the Isotopic Composition of Mars Atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jambon, A.; Quemerais, E.; Chassiefiere, E.; Berthelier, J. J.; Agrinier, P.; Cartigny, P.; Javoy, M.; Moreira, M.; Sabroux, J. -C.; Sarda, P.; Pineau, J. -F.

2000-07-01

Scientific objectives for an atmospheric analysis of Mars are presented in the DREAM project. Among the information presently available most are fragmentary or limited in their precision for both major element (H, C, O, N) and noble gas isotopes. These data are necessary for the understanding and modelling of Mars atmospheric formation and evolution, and consequently for other planets, particularly the Earth. To fulfill the above requirements, two approaches can be envisonned: 1) analysis of a returned sample (DREAM project) or 2) in situ analysis, e.g. PALOMA project presented here. Among the advantages of in situ analysis, we notice: the minimal terrestrial contamination, the unlimited availability of gas to be analyzed and the possibility of multiple analyses (replicates, daynight... ). Difficulties specific to in situ analyses are of a very different kind to those of returned samples. In situ analysis could also be viewed as a preparation to future analysis of returned samples. Finally, some of the measurements will not be possible on Earth: for instance, radon and its short lived decay products, will provide complementary information to 4-He analysis and can only be obtained in situ, independently of analytical capabilities.

Structure of the tropical lower stratosphere as revealed by three reanalysis data sets

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pawson, S.; Fiorino, M.

1996-05-01

While the skill of climate simulation models has advanced over the last decade, mainly through improvements in modeling, further progress will depend on the availability and the quality of comprehensive validation data sets covering long time periods. A new source of such validation data is atmospheric {open_quotes}reanalysis{close_quotes} where a fixed, state-of-the-art global atmospheric model/data assimilation system is run through archived and recovered observations to produce a consistent set of atmospheric analyses. Although reanalysis will be free of non-physical variability caused by changes in the models and/or the assimilation procedure, it is necessary to assess its quality. A region for stringentmore » testing of the quality of reanalysis is the tropical lower stratosphere. This portion of the atmosphere is sparse in observations but displays the prominent quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and an annual cycle, neither of which is fully understood, but which are likely coupled dynamically. We first consider the performance of three reanalyses, from NCEP/NCAR, NASA and ECMWF, against rawinsonde data in depicting the QBO and then examine the structure of the tropical lower stratosphere in NCEP and ECMWF data sets in detail. While the annual cycle and the QBO in wind and temperature are quite successfully represented, the mean meridional circulations in NCEP and ECMWF data sets contain unusual features which may be due to the assimilation process rather than being physically based. Further, the models capture the long-term temperature fluctuations associated with volcanic eruptions, even though the physical mechanisms are not included, thus implying that the model does not mask prominent stratospheric signals in the observational data. We conclude that reanalysis offers a unique opportunity to better understand the dynamics of QBO and can be applied to climate model validation.« less

Stellar parameters for the central star of the planetary nebula PRTM 1 using the German Astrophysical Virtual Observatory service TheoSSA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rauch, T.; Demleitner, M.; Hoyer, D.; Werner, K.

2018-04-01

The German Astrophysical Virtual Observatory (GAVO) developed the registered service TheoSSA (theoretical stellar spectra access) and the supporting registered VO tool TMAW (Tübingen Model-Atmosphere WWW interface). These allow individual spectral analyses of hot, compact stars with state-of-the-art non-local thermodynamical equilibrium (NLTE) stellar-atmosphere models that presently consider opacities of the elements H, He, C, N, O, Ne, Na, and Mg, without requiring detailed knowledge about the involved background codes and procedures. Presently, TheoSSA provides easy access to about 150 000 pre-calculated stellar spectral energy distributions (SEDs) and is intended to ingest SEDs calculated by any model-atmosphere code. In the case of the exciting star of PN PRTM 1, we demonstrate the easy way to calculate individual NLTE stellar model-atmospheres to reproduce an observed optical spectrum. We measured T_eff = 98 000± 5 000 K, log (g / cm/s^2) = 5.0^{+0.3}_{-0.2}, and photospheric mass fractions of H =7.5 × 10-1 (1.02 times solar), He =2.4 × 10-1 (0.96), C =2.0 × 10-3 (0.84), N =3.2 × 10-4 (0.46), and O =8.5 × 10-3 (1.48) with uncertainties of ±0.2 dex. We determined the stellar mass and luminosity of 0.73^{+0.16}_{-0.15} M_{⊙} and log (L/L⊙) = 4.2 ± 0.4, respectively.

Aromatic VOCs global influence in the ozone production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cabrera-Perez, David; Pozzer, Andrea

2016-04-01

Aromatic hydrocarbons are a subgroup of Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs) of special interest in the atmosphere of urban and semi-urban areas. Aromatics form a high fraction of VOCs, are highly reactive and upon oxidation they are an important source of ozone. These group of VOCs are released to the atmosphere by processes related to biomass burning and fossil fuel consumption, while they are removed from the atmosphere primarily by OH reaction and by dry deposition. In addition, a branch of aromatics (ortho-nitrophenols) produce HONO upon photolysis, which is responsible of certain amount of the OH recycling. Despite their importance in the atmosphere in anthropogenic polluted areas, the influence of aromatics in the ozone production remains largely unknown. This is of particular relevance, being ozone a pollutant with severe side effects on air quality, health and climate. In this work the atmospheric impacts at global scale of the most emitted aromatic VOCs in the gas phase (benzene, toluene, xylenes, ethylbenzene, styrene, phenol, benzaldehyde and trimethylbenzenes) are analysed and assessed. Specifically, the impact on ozone due to aromatic oxidation is estimated, as this is of great interest in large urban areas and can be helpful for developing air pollution control strategies. Further targets are the quantification of the NOx loss and the OH recycling due to aromatic oxidation. In order to investigate these processes, two simulations were performed with the numerical chemistry and climate simulation ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model. The simulations compare two cases, one with ozone concentrations when aromatics are present or the second one when they are missing. Finally, model simulated ozone is compared against a global set of observations in order to better constrain the model accuracy.

Synergies Between Grace and Regional Atmospheric Modeling Efforts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kusche, J.; Springer, A.; Ohlwein, C.; Hartung, K.; Longuevergne, L.; Kollet, S. J.; Keune, J.; Dobslaw, H.; Forootan, E.; Eicker, A.

2014-12-01

In the meteorological community, efforts converge towards implementation of high-resolution (< 12km) data-assimilating regional climate modelling/monitoring systems based on numerical weather prediction (NWP) cores. This is driven by requirements of improving process understanding, better representation of land surface interactions, atmospheric convection, orographic effects, and better forecasting on shorter timescales. This is relevant for the GRACE community since (1) these models may provide improved atmospheric mass separation / de-aliasing and smaller topography-induced errors, compared to global (ECMWF-Op, ERA-Interim) data, (2) they inherit high temporal resolution from NWP models, (3) parallel efforts towards improving the land surface component and coupling groundwater models; this may provide realistic hydrological mass estimates with sub-diurnal resolution, (4) parallel efforts towards re-analyses, with the aim of providing consistent time series. (5) On the other hand, GRACE can help validating models and aids in the identification of processes needing improvement. A coupled atmosphere - land surface - groundwater modelling system is currently being implemented for the European CORDEX region at 12.5 km resolution, based on the TerrSysMP platform (COSMO-EU NWP, CLM land surface and ParFlow groundwater models). We report results from Springer et al. (J. Hydromet., accept.) on validating the water cycle in COSMO-EU using GRACE and precipitation, evapotranspiration and runoff data; confirming that the model does favorably at representing observations. We show that after GRACE-derived bias correction, basin-average hydrological conditions prior to 2002 can be reconstructed better than before. Next, comparing GRACE with CLM forced by EURO-CORDEX simulations allows identifying processes needing improvement in the model. Finally, we compare COSMO-EU atmospheric pressure, a proxy for mass corrections in satellite gravimetry, with ERA-Interim over Europe at timescales shorter/longer than 1 month, and spatial scales below/above ERA resolution. We find differences between regional and global model more pronounced at high frequencies, with magnitude at sub-grid scale and larger scale corresponding to 1-3 hPa (1-3 cm EWH); relevant for the assessment of post-GRACE concepts.

Shifting carbon flow from roots into associated microbial communities in response to elevated atmospheric CO2.

PubMed

Drigo, Barbara; Pijl, Agata S; Duyts, Henk; Kielak, Anna M; Gamper, Hannes A; Houtekamer, Marco J; Boschker, Henricus T S; Bodelier, Paul L E; Whiteley, Andrew S; van Veen, Johannes A; Kowalchuk, George A

2010-06-15

Rising atmospheric CO(2) levels are predicted to have major consequences on carbon cycling and the functioning of terrestrial ecosystems. Increased photosynthetic activity is expected, especially for C-3 plants, thereby influencing vegetation dynamics; however, little is known about the path of fixed carbon into soil-borne communities and resulting feedbacks on ecosystem function. Here, we examine how arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) act as a major conduit in the transfer of carbon between plants and soil and how elevated atmospheric CO(2) modulates the belowground translocation pathway of plant-fixed carbon. Shifts in active AMF species under elevated atmospheric CO(2) conditions are coupled to changes within active rhizosphere bacterial and fungal communities. Thus, as opposed to simply increasing the activity of soil-borne microbes through enhanced rhizodeposition, elevated atmospheric CO(2) clearly evokes the emergence of distinct opportunistic plant-associated microbial communities. Analyses involving RNA-based stable isotope probing, neutral/phosphate lipid fatty acids stable isotope probing, community fingerprinting, and real-time PCR allowed us to trace plant-fixed carbon to the affected soil-borne microorganisms. Based on our data, we present a conceptual model in which plant-assimilated carbon is rapidly transferred to AMF, followed by a slower release from AMF to the bacterial and fungal populations well-adapted to the prevailing (myco-)rhizosphere conditions. This model provides a general framework for reappraising carbon-flow paths in soils, facilitating predictions of future interactions between rising atmospheric CO(2) concentrations and terrestrial ecosystems.

Atmospheric tether mission analyses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1996-01-01

NASA is considering the use of tethered satellites to explore regions of the atmosphere inaccessible to spacecraft or high altitude research balloons. This report summarizes the Lockheed Martin Astronautics (LMA) effort for the engineering study team assessment of an Orbiter-based atmospheric tether mission. Lockheed Martin responsibilities included design recommendations for the deployer and tether, as well as tether dynamic analyses for the mission. Three tether configurations were studied including single line, multistrand (Hoytether) and tape designs.

What GRACE/GRACE-FO satellite gravity may tell about the atmosphere (and what not)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eicker, Annette; Springer, Anne; Hense, Andreas; Panet, Isabelle; Kusche, Jürgen

2017-04-01

In this presentation we would like to discuss the present benefit and future potential of satellite gravity observations, as obtained from the satellite mission GRACE and its successor GRACE-Follow-On (GRACE-FO), for studying the atmospheric water cycle. In the first part of the presentation, we will show recent results of using GRACE to constrain atmospheric water budgets. GRACE-derived water storage changes (in combination with observed runoff) can be used to solve for the vertical water flux deficit of precipitation (P) minus evapotranspiration (E), which links the terrestrial and the atmospheric water balance equations. This relates gravity change to moisture flux divergence and water vapor change and thus provides, in principle, a link between GRACE/GRACE-FO and (area-averaged) GNSS integrated water vapor observations that may be exploited in the future. We will show that such an independent estimate of P minus E can be used to constrain land-atmosphere fluxes from monthly time scales to decadal trends and even provides meaningful flux information down to daily time steps. In the second part of the presentation, we would like to give an outlook towards the potential of using satellite gravity data directly for the estimation of atmospheric water mass changes. On the basis of ERA-Interim data, we provide a first assessment which suggests that an anticipated future double-pair gravity mission with enhanced temporal and spatial resolution would be sensitive to 'feeling' atmospheric water mass (water vapor) variations. However, whether these (faster) variations could be separated from dry air mass variations through modeling needs to be investigated. If possible, this would offer a completely new tool for validating atmospheric analyses and for improving engergy and mass budgets in models.

Using the multiangle polarimetric measuring capabilities of the 2010 NASA/Glory mission to separate atmospheric scattering contributions from radiances emerging from open oceans in the visible part of the spectrum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chowdhary, J.; Cairns, B.; Mishchenko, M. I.; Carlson, B. E.

2009-12-01

Answering the question of what measurements represent benchmarks for the state of the climate of the Earth is one that is of crucial importance for determining what remote sensing measurements will be made in the future. The Aerosol Polarimetry Sensor (APS), scheduled for launch into the A-train in 2010 onboard the NASA/Glory Mission, will provide multiangle, multispectral polarized reflectance measurements of sunlight reflected by the Earth’s atmosphere-surface system. The accuracy of aerosol retrievals from these measurements has already been demonstrated in field campaigns with data obtained by an airborne version of the APS, namely, the Research Scanning Polarimeter (RSP). There are several factors contributing to the success of these retrievals. One of these is the better tools available for the analyses of polarized reflectance than for the analyses of total reflectance which allows the atmospheric scattering contributions to be separated from reflection by the lower boundary whether the underlying surface be land, an ocean or lake, or even clouds. The one we focus on here is the capability to use polarization to separate atmospheric scattering from water- leaving radiances. We review a radiative transfer model for underwater light scattering that computes these radiances, and apply the results to analyses of data obtained by the RSP over the open ocean during the MILAGRO field campaign. We demonstrate that the sensitivity of remotely sensed polarized reflectances to variations in the ocean color is much smaller than that of total reflectances. Uncertainties in underwater light scattering properties that are difficult to quantify, such as absorption by colored dissolved organic materials, have a negligible effect on the polarized reflectances whereas the reflectances are substantially affected in the blue/UV part of the spectrum. This of course means that, while the polarized reflectances can be used to characterize the atmosphere, valuable information can be obtained about absorption and scattering in the ocean body from the reflectance. Polarimetric measurements are therefore far more valuable than purely radiometric measurements in simultaneously assessing the state of the atmosphere and the ocean.

Retrieval of Venus' cloud parameters from VIRTIS nightside spectra in the latitude band 25°-55°N

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Magurno, Davide; Maestri, Tiziano; Grassi, Davide; Piccioni, Giuseppe; Sindoni, Giuseppe

2017-09-01

Two years of data from the M-channel of the Visible and InfraRed Thermal Imaging Spectrometer (VIRTIS), on board the European Space Agency mission Venus Express operating around the planet Venus, are analysed. Nocturnal data from a nadir viewpoint in the latitude band 25°N-55°N are selected for their configuration advantages and maximisation of the scene homogeneity. A reference model, and radiance spectrum, is defined based on average accepted values of the Venus main atmospheric and cloud parameters found in the literature. Extensive radiative transfer simulations are performed to provide a synthetic database of more than 10 000 VIRTIS radiances representing the natural variability of the system parameters (atmospheric temperature profile, cloud H2Osbnd H2SO4 solution concentration and vertical distribution, particle size distribution density and modal radius). A simulated-observed fitting algorithm of spectral radiances in window channels, based on a weighting procedure accounting for the latitudinal observed radiance variations, is used to derive the best atmosphere-cloud configuration for each observation. Results show that the reference Venus model does not adequately reproduce the observed VIRTIS spectra. In particular, the model accounting for a constant sulphuric acid concentration along the vertical extent of the clouds is never selected as a best fit. The 75%/96% and 84%/96% concentrations (the first values refer to the upper cloud layers and the second values to the lower ones) are the most commonly retrieved models representing more than 85% of the retrieved cases for any latitudinal band considered. It is shown that the assumption of stratified concentration of aqueous sulphuric acid allows to adequately fit the observed radiance, in particular the peak at 1.74 μm and around 4 μm. The analysis of the results concerning the microphysics suggests larger radii for the upper cloud layers in conjunction with a large reduction of their number density with respect to the reference standard. Considerable variation of the particle concentration in the Venus' atmosphere is retrieved for altitudes between 60 and 70 km. The retrieved models also suggest that lower cloud layers have smaller particle radii and larger number density than expected from the reference model. Latitudinal variations of microphysical and chemical parameters are also analysed.

Evaluating Changes In the Elemental Composition of Micrometeorites During Entry into the Earth’s Atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rudraswami, N. G.; Shyam Prasad, M.; Dey, S.; Plane, J. M. C.; Feng, W.; Taylor, S.

2015-11-01

We evaluate the heating of extraterrestrial particles entering the atmosphere using the comprehensive chemical ablation model (CABMOD). This model predicts the ablation rates of individual elements in a particle with a defined size, composition, entry velocity, and entry angle with respect to the zenith (ZA). In the present study, bulk chemical analyses of 1133 Antarctica micrometeorites (collected from the south pole water well) are interpreted using CABMOD. The marked spread in Fe/Si values in unmelted, partially melted, and melted micrometeorites is explained by the loss of relatively volatile Fe during atmospheric entry. The combined theoretical modeling and elemental composition of the micrometeorites (Mg/Si ratios) suggest that ˜85% of particles have a provenance of carbonaceous chondrites, the remaining ˜15% are either ordinary or enstatite chondrites. About 65% of the micrometeorites have undergone <20% ablation, while a further 20% have lost between 20% and 60% of their original mass. This has implications for understanding the micrometeorite flux that reaches the Earth's surface, as well as estimating the pre-atmospheric size of the particles. Our work shows that the unmelted particles that contribute ˜50% to the total micrometeorite collection on Earth's surface have a small entry zone: ZA = 60°-90° if the entry velocity is ˜11 km s-1, and ZA = 80°-90° for >11-21 km s-1.

A modeling study of the thermosphere-ionosphere interactions during the boreal winter and spring 2015-2016: Tidal and planetary-scale waves effect on the ionospheric structure.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sassi, F.; McDonald, S. E.; McCormack, J. P.; Tate, J.; Liu, H.; Kuhl, D.

2017-12-01

The 2015-2016 boreal winter and spring is a dynamically very interesting time in the lower atmosphere: a minor high latitude stratospheric warming occurred in February 2016; an interrupted descent of the QBO was found in the tropical stratosphere; and a large warm ENSO took place in the tropical Pacific Ocean. The stratospheric warming, the QBO and ENSO are known to affect in different ways the meteorology of the upper atmosphere in different ways: low latitude solar tides and high latitude planetary-scale waves have potentially important implications on the structure of the ionosphere. In this study, we use global atmospheric analyses from a high-altitude version of the High-Altitude Navy Global Environmental Model (HA-NAVGEM) to constrain the meteorology of numerical simulations of the Specified Dynamics Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model, extended version (SD-WACCM-X). We describe the large-scale behavior of tropical tides and mid-latitude planetary waves that emerge in the lower thermosphere. The effect on the ionosphere is captured by numerical simulations of the Navy Highly Integrated Thermosphere Ionosphere Demonstration System (Navy-HITIDES) that uses the meteorology generated by SD-WACCM-X to drive ionospheric simulations during this time period. We will analyze the impact of various dynamical fields on the zonal behavior of the ionosphere by selectively filtering the relevant dynamical modes.

Nitrogen Deposition: A Component of Global Change Analyses

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Norby, Richard J.

1997-12-31

The global cycles of carbon and nitrogen are being perturbed by human activities that increase the transfer from large pools of nonreactive forms of the elements to reactive forms that are essential to the functioning of the terrestrial biosphere. The cycles are closely linked at all scales, and global change analyses must consider carbon and nitrogen cycles together. The increasing amount of nitrogen originating from fossil fuel combustion and deposited to terrestrial ecosystems as nitrogen oxides could increase the capacity of ecosystems to sequester carbon thereby removing some of the excess carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and slowing the developmentmore » of greenhouse warming. Several global and ecosystem models have calculated the amount of carbon sequestration that can be attributed to nitrogen deposition based on assumptions about the allocation of nitrogen among ecosystem components with different carbon-nitrogen ratios. They support the premise that nitrogen deposition is responsible for a an increasing terrestrial carbon sink since industrialization began, but there are large uncertainties related to the continued capacity of ecosystems to retain exogenous nitrogen. Whether terrestrial ecosystems continue to sequester additional carbon will depend in part on their response to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, which is widely thought to be constrained by limited nitrogen availability. Ecosystem models generally support the conclusion that the responses of ecosystems to increasing concentrations of carbon dioxide will be larger, and the range of possible responses will be wider, in ecosystems with increased nitrogen inputs originating as atmospheric deposition.« less

Development of atmospheric N2O isotopomers model based on a chemistry-coupled atmospheric general circulation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ishijima, K.; Toyoda, S.; Sudo, K.; Yoshikawa, C.; Nanbu, S.; Aoki, S.; Nakazawa, T.; Yoshida, N.

2009-12-01

It is well known that isotopic information is useful to qualitatively understand cycles and constrain sources of some atmospheric species, but so far there has been no study to model N2O isotopomers throughout the atmosphere from the troposphere to the stratosphere, including realistic surface N2O isotopomers emissions. We have started to develop a model to simulate spatiotemporal variations of the atmospheric N2O isotopomers in both the troposphere and the stratosphere, based on a chemistry-coupled atmospheric general circulation model, in order to obtain more accurate quantitative understanding of the global N2O cycle. For surface emissions of the isotopomers, combination of EDGAR-based anthropogenic and soil fluxes and monthly varying GEIA oceanic fluxes are factored, using isotopic values of global total sources estimated from firn-air analyses based long-term trend of the atmospheric N2O isotopomers. Isotopic fractionations in chemical reactions are considered for photolysis and photo-oxidation of N2O in the stratosphere. The isotopic fractionation coefficients have been employed from studies based on laboratory experiments, but we also will test the coefficients determined by theoretical calculations. In terms of the global N2O isotopomer budgets, precise quantification of the sources is quite challenging, because even the spatiotemporal variabilities of N2O sources have never been adequately estimated. Therefore, we have firstly started validation of simulated isotopomer results in the stratosphere, by using the isotopomer profiles obtained by balloon observations. N2O concentration profiles are mostly well reproduced, partly because of realistic reproduction of dynamical processes by nudging with reanalysis meteorological data. However, the concentration in the polar vortex tends to be overestimated, probably due to relatively coarse wave-length resolution in photolysis calculation. Such model features also appear in the isotopomers results, which are almost underestimated, relative to the balloon observations, although the concentration is well simulated. The tendency has been somewhat improved by incorporating another photolysis scheme with slightly higher wave-length resolution into the model. From another point of view, these facts indicate that N2O isotopomers can be used for validation of the stratospheric photochemical calculations in model, because of very high sensitivity of the isotopomer ratio values to some settings such as the wave-length resolution in the photochemical scheme.Therefore, N2O isotopomers modeling seems to be not only useful for validation of the fractionation coefficients and of isotopic characterization of sources, but also have the possibility to be an index especially for precision in the stratospheric photolysis in model.

High-energy laser tactical decision aid (HELTDA) for mission planning and predictive avoidance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burley, Jarred L.; Fiorino, Steven T.; Randall, Robb M.; Bartell, Richard J.; Cusumano, Salvatore J.

2012-06-01

This study demonstrates the development of a high energy laser tactical decision aid (HELTDA) by the AFIT/CDE for mission planning High Energy Laser (HEL) weapon system engagements as well as centralized, decentralized, or hybrid predictive avoidance (CPA/DPA/HPA) assessments. Analyses of example HEL mission engagements are described as well as how mission planners are expected to employ the software. Example HEL engagement simulations are based on geographic location and recent/current atmospheric weather conditions. The atmospheric effects are defined through the AFIT/CDE Laser Environmental Effects Definition and Reference (LEEDR) model or the High Energy Laser End-to-End Operational Simulation (HELEEOS) model upon which the HELTDA is based. These models enable the creation of vertical profiles of temperature, pressure, water vapor content, optical turbulence, and atmospheric particulates and hydrometeors as they relate to line-by-line layer extinction coefficient magnitude at wavelengths from the UV to the RF. Seasonal and boundary layer variations (summer/winter) and time of day variations for a range of relative humidity percentile conditions are considered to determine optimum efficiency in a specific environment. Each atmospheric particulate/hydrometeor is evaluated based on its wavelength-dependent forward and off-axis scattering characteristics and absorption effects on the propagating environment to and beyond the target. In addition to realistic vertical profiles of molecular and aerosol absorption and scattering, correlated optical turbulence profiles in probabilistic (percentile) format are included. Numerical weather model forecasts are incorporated in the model to develop comprehensive understanding of HEL weapon system performance.

Atmospheric Retrieval Analysis of the Directly Imaged Exoplanet HR 8799b

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Jae-Min; Heng, Kevin; Irwin, Patrick G. J.

2013-12-01

Directly imaged exoplanets are unexplored laboratories for the application of the spectral and temperature retrieval method, where the chemistry and composition of their atmospheres are inferred from inverse modeling of the available data. As a pilot study, we focus on the extrasolar gas giant HR 8799b, for which more than 50 data points are available. We upgrade our non-linear optimal estimation retrieval method to include a phenomenological model of clouds that requires the cloud optical depth and monodisperse particle size to be specified. Previous studies have focused on forward models with assumed values of the exoplanetary properties; there is no consensus on the best-fit values of the radius, mass, surface gravity, and effective temperature of HR 8799b. We show that cloud-free models produce reasonable fits to the data if the atmosphere is of super-solar metallicity and non-solar elemental abundances. Intermediate cloudy models with moderate values of the cloud optical depth and micron-sized particles provide an equally reasonable fit to the data and require a lower mean molecular weight. We report our best-fit values for the radius, mass, surface gravity, and effective temperature of HR 8799b. The mean molecular weight is about 3.8, while the carbon-to-oxygen ratio is about unity due to the prevalence of carbon monoxide. Our study emphasizes the need for robust claims about the nature of an exoplanetary atmosphere to be based on analyses involving both photometry and spectroscopy and inferred from beyond a few photometric data points, such as are typically reported for hot Jupiters.

Ozone reference models for the middle atmosphere (new CIRA)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Keating, G. M.; Pitts, M. C.; Young, D. F.

1989-01-01

Models of ozone vertical structure were generated that were based on multiple data sets from satellites. The very good absolute accuracy of the individual data sets allowed the data to be directly combined to generate these models. The data used for generation of these models are from some of the most recent satellite measurements over the period 1978 to 1983. A discussion is provided of validation and error analyses of these data sets. Also, inconsistencies in data sets brought about by temporal variations or other factors are indicated. The models cover the pressure range from from 20 to 0.003 mb (25 to 90 km). The models for pressures less than 0.5 mb represent only the day side and are only provisional since there was limited longitudinal coverage at these levels. The models start near 25 km in accord with previous COSPAR international reference atmosphere (CIRA) models. Models are also provided of ozone mixing ratio as a function of height. The monthly standard deviation and interannual variations relative to zonal means are also provided. In addition to the models of monthly latitudinal variations in vertical structure based on satellite measurements, monthly models of total column ozone and its characteristic variability as a function of latitude based on four years of Nimbus 7 measurements, models of the relationship between vertical structure and total column ozone, and a midlatitude annual mean model are incorporated in this set of ozone reference atmospheres. Various systematic variations are discussed including the annual, semiannual, and quasibiennial oscillations, and diurnal, longitudinal, and response to solar activity variations.

H20 and CH4 abundances under non-LTE conditions from MIPAS upper atmosphere measurements.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koukouli, M. E.; Imk-Iaa Mipas/Envisat Team

Vertical profiles of water vapour and methane have been retrieved from measurements of the Earth's Upper Atmosphere made by the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) on board the polar orbiting ENVISAT satellite. The spectral range targeted is 685-2410 cm-1 (4.1-14.6 μm) and the retrieval altitude range is ˜25-80 km. The Generic RAdiative traNsfer AnD non-LTE population Algorithm (GRANADA), jointly developed by IAA and IMK, has been used to analyse two days' worth of upper atmosphere orbits, from July 2002 and June 2003. The vertical profiles retrieved are compared and calibrated against other known water vapour experiments (e.g. HALOE) in the corresponding vertical and spacial co-locations. Global three-dimensional maps are also presented and validated against modelling results (e.g. Garcia and Solomon). The total hydrogen content of the Earth's middle atmosphere will also be investigated as means of identifying possible sinks or sources in the water vapour and methane day-night variability. A comprehensive systematic error analysis will complement the presentation of the results.

Exploring the usability of isotopically anomalous oxygen in bones and teeth as paleo-CO2-barometer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pack, Andreas; Gehler, Alexander; Süssenberger, Annette

2013-02-01

Fluctuations in atmospheric p may have played the key role in global climate throughout Earth's history. For the quantification of past variations in atmospheric p, several geological proxy approaches and geochemical models have been developed. Here, we evaluate a new CO2 proxy approach that is based on the triple oxygen isotope composition (16O, 17O, 18O) of skeletal apatite of terrestrial mammals. Our approach utilizes the relation between an anomaly in 17O of tropospheric air O2 and atmospheric p. The anomaly is transferred from inhaled air O2 to skeletal apatite of mammals. Hence, triple oxygen isotope data of mammalian bioapatite provide information regarding p during the animal's lifetime. The approach was calibrated with a detailed mass balance model that was verified by analyses on a set of recent mammals. We evaluate the potential of this new independent terrestrial paleo-CO2 proxy in a case study including Eocene to Miocene samples. The present investigation provides promising results that are in good agreement with existing proxy- and model data. The uncertainty intrinsic to the proxy is mainly due to uncertainties in physiological parameters.

Modeling Potential Tephra Dispersal at Yucca Mountain, Nevada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hooper, D.; Franklin, N.; Adams, N.; Basu, D.

2006-12-01

Quaternary basaltic volcanoes exist within 20 km [12 mi] of the potential radioactive waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, and future basaltic volcanism at the repository is considered a low-probability, potentially high-consequence event. If radioactive waste was entrained in the conduit of a future volcanic event, tephra and waste could be transported in the resulting eruption plume. During an eruption, basaltic tephra would be dispersed primarily according to the height of the eruption column, particle-size distribution, and structure of the winds aloft. Following an eruption, contaminated tephra-fall deposits would be affected by surface redistribution processes. The Center for Nuclear Waste Regulatory Analyses developed the computer code TEPHRA to calculate atmospheric dispersion and subsequent deposition of tephra and spent nuclear fuel from a potential eruption at Yucca Mountain and to help prepare the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission to review a potential U.S. Department of Energy license application. The TEPHRA transport code uses the Suzuki model to simulate the thermo-fluid dynamics of atmospheric tephra dispersion. TEPHRA models the transport of airborne pyroclasts based on particle diffusion from an eruption column, horizontal diffusion of particles by atmospheric and plume turbulence, horizontal advection by atmospheric circulation, and particle settling by gravity. More recently, TEPHRA was modified to calculate potential tephra deposit distributions using stratified wind fields based on upper atmosphere data from the Nevada Test Site. Wind data are binned into 1-km [0.62-mi]-high intervals with coupled distributions of wind speed and direction produced for each interval. Using this stratified wind field and discretization with respect to height, TEPHRA calculates particle fall and lateral displacement for each interval. This implementation permits modeling of split wind fields. We use a parallel version of the code to calculate expected tephra and high-level waste accumulation at specified points on a two-dimensional spatial grid, thereby simulating a three- dimensional initial deposit. To assess subsequent tephra and high-level waste redistribution and resuspension, modeling grids were devised to measure deposition in eolian and fluvial source regions. The eolian grid covers an area of 2,600 km2 [1,000 mi2] and the fluvial grid encompasses 318 km2 [123 mi2] of the southernmost portion of the Fortymile Wash catchment basin. Because each realization is independent, distributions of tephra and high-level waste reflect anticipated variations in source-term and transport characteristics. This abstract is an independent product of the Center for Nuclear Waste Regulatory Analyses and does not necessarily reflect the view or regulatory position of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission.

Atmospheric Research 2014 Technical Highlights

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Platnick, Steven

2015-01-01

Atmospheric research in the Earth Sciences Division (610) consists of research and technology development programs dedicated to advancing knowledge and understanding of the atmosphere and its interaction with the climate of Earth. The Division's goals are to improve understanding of the dynamics and physical properties of precipitation, clouds, and aerosols; atmospheric chemistry, including the role of natural and anthropogenic trace species on the ozone balance in the stratosphere and the troposphere; and radiative properties of Earth's atmosphere and the influence of solar variability on the Earth's climate. Major research activities are carried out in the Mesoscale Atmospheric Processes Laboratory, the Climate and Radiation Laboratory, the Atmospheric Chemistry and Dynamics Laboratory, and the Wallops Field Support Office. The overall scope of the research covers an end-to-end process, starting with the identification of scientific problems, leading to observation requirements for remote-sensing platforms, technology and retrieval algorithm development; followed by flight projects and satellite missions; and eventually, resulting in data processing, analyses of measurements, and dissemination from flight projects and missions. Instrument scientists conceive, design, develop, and implement ultraviolet, infrared, optical, radar, laser, and lidar technology to remotely sense the atmosphere. Members of the various Laboratories conduct field measurements for satellite sensor calibration and data validation, and carry out numerous modeling activities. These modeling activities include climate model simulations, modeling the chemistry and transport of trace species on regional-to-global scales, cloud resolving models, and developing the next-generation Earth system models. Satellite missions, field campaigns, peer-reviewed publications, and successful proposals are essential at every stage of the research process to meeting our goals and maintaining leadership of the Earth Sciences Division in atmospheric science research. Figure 1.1 shows the 20-year record of peer-reviewed publications and proposals among the various Laboratories. This data shows that the scientific work being conducted in the Laboratories is competitive with the work being done elsewhere in universities and other government agencies. The office of Deputy Director for Atmospheric Research will strive to maintain this record by rigorously monitoring and promoting quality while emphasizing coordination and integration among atmospheric disciplines. Also, an appropriate balance will be maintained between the scientists' responsibility for large collaborative projects and missions and their need to carry out active science research as a principal investigator. This balance allows members of the Laboratories to improve their scientific credentials, and develop leadership potentials. Interdisciplinary research is carried out in collaboration with other laboratories and research groups within the Earth Sciences Division, across the Sciences and Exploration Directorate, and with partners in universities and other government agencies. Members of the Laboratories interact with the general public to support a wide range of interests in the atmospheric sciences. Among other activities, the Laboratories raise the public's awareness of atmospheric science by presenting public lectures and demonstrations, by making scientific data available to wide audiences, by teaching, and by mentoring students and teachers. The Atmosphere Laboratories make substantial efforts to attract and recruit new scientists to the various areas of atmospheric research. We strongly encourage the establishment of partnerships with Federal and state agencies that have operational responsibilities to promote the societal application of our science products. This report describes our role in NASA's mission, provides highlights of our research scope and activities, and summarizes our scientists' major accomplishments during calendar year 2014. The composition of the organization is shown in Figure 1.2 for each code. This report is published in a printed version with an electronic version on our atmospheres Web site, http://atmospheres.gsfc.nasa.gov/.

Intraseasonal Oscillations over South America: A Study with a Regional Climate Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chen, Baode; Chao, Winston

2003-01-01

The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) regional climate model version 2 (RegCM2) is used to investigate the observed characteristics of intraseasonal oscillations over South America. Our study is mainly concentrated on an intraseaonal mode, which is observed to account for a large portion of the intraseasonal variation, to have a standing feature and to be independent of the MJO. The NCEPDOE AMIP-II reanalysis is utilized to provide initial and lateral boundary conditions for the RegCM2 based upon the OOZ, 062, 122 and 182 data.Our results indicate that the intraseasonal oscillation still exists with time- averaged lateral boundary condition, which prevents the MJO and other outside disturbances from entering the model's domain, suggesting a locally forced oscillation responsible for ths intraseasonal mode independent of the MJO. Further experiments show that the annual and daily variabilities and a radiative-convective interaction are not essential to the locally forced intraseasonal oscillation. The intraseasonal oscillations over Amazon in our model essentially result from interactions among atmospheric continental- scale circulation, surface radiation, surface sensible and latent heat fluxes, and cumulus convection. The wavelet analyses of various surface energy fluxes and surface energy budget also verify that the primary cause of intraseasonal oscillation is the interaction of land surface processes with the atmosphere.

IPRT polarized radiative transfer model intercomparison project - Phase A

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Emde, Claudia; Barlakas, Vasileios; Cornet, Céline; Evans, Frank; Korkin, Sergey; Ota, Yoshifumi; Labonnote, Laurent C.; Lyapustin, Alexei; Macke, Andreas; Mayer, Bernhard; Wendisch, Manfred

2015-10-01

The polarization state of electromagnetic radiation scattered by atmospheric particles such as aerosols, cloud droplets, or ice crystals contains much more information about the optical and microphysical properties than the total intensity alone. For this reason an increasing number of polarimetric observations are performed from space, from the ground and from aircraft. Polarized radiative transfer models are required to interpret and analyse these measurements and to develop retrieval algorithms exploiting polarimetric observations. In the last years a large number of new codes have been developed, mostly for specific applications. Benchmark results are available for specific cases, but not for more sophisticated scenarios including polarized surface reflection and multi-layer atmospheres. The International Polarized Radiative Transfer (IPRT) working group of the International Radiation Commission (IRC) has initiated a model intercomparison project in order to fill this gap. This paper presents the results of the first phase A of the IPRT project which includes ten test cases, from simple setups with only one layer and Rayleigh scattering to rather sophisticated setups with a cloud embedded in a standard atmosphere above an ocean surface. All scenarios in the first phase A of the intercomparison project are for a one-dimensional plane-parallel model geometry. The commonly established benchmark results are available at the IPRT website.

Sensitivity simulations of superparameterised convection in a general circulation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rybka, Harald; Tost, Holger

2015-04-01

Cloud Resolving Models (CRMs) covering a horizontal grid spacing from a few hundred meters up to a few kilometers have been used to explicitly resolve small-scale and mesoscale processes. Special attention has been paid to realistically represent cloud dynamics and cloud microphysics involving cloud droplets, ice crystals, graupel and aerosols. The entire variety of physical processes on the small-scale interacts with the larger-scale circulation and has to be parameterised on the coarse grid of a general circulation model (GCM). Since more than a decade an approach to connect these two types of models which act on different scales has been developed to resolve cloud processes and their interactions with the large-scale flow. The concept is to use an ensemble of CRM grid cells in a 2D or 3D configuration in each grid cell of the GCM to explicitly represent small-scale processes avoiding the use of convection and large-scale cloud parameterisations which are a major source for uncertainties regarding clouds. The idea is commonly known as superparameterisation or cloud-resolving convection parameterisation. This study presents different simulations of an adapted Earth System Model (ESM) connected to a CRM which acts as a superparameterisation. Simulations have been performed with the ECHAM/MESSy atmospheric chemistry (EMAC) model comparing conventional GCM runs (including convection and large-scale cloud parameterisations) with the improved superparameterised EMAC (SP-EMAC) modeling one year with prescribed sea surface temperatures and sea ice content. The sensitivity of atmospheric temperature, precipiation patterns, cloud amount and types is observed changing the embedded CRM represenation (orientation, width, no. of CRM cells, 2D vs. 3D). Additionally, we also evaluate the radiation balance with the new model configuration, and systematically analyse the impact of tunable parameters on the radiation budget and hydrological cycle. Furthermore, the subgrid variability (individual CRM cell output) is analysed in order to illustrate the importance of a highly varying atmospheric structure inside a single GCM grid box. Finally, the convective transport of Radon is observed comparing different transport procedures and their influence on the vertical tracer distribution.

Atmospheric Diabatic Heating in Different Weather States and the General Circulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rossow, William B.; Zhang, Yuanchong; Tselioudis, George

2016-01-01

Analysis of multiple global satellite products identifies distinctive weather states of the atmosphere from the mesoscale pattern of cloud properties and quantifies the associated diabatic heating/cooling by radiative flux divergence, precipitation, and surface sensible heat flux. The results show that the forcing for the atmospheric general circulation is a very dynamic process, varying strongly at weather space-time scales, comprising relatively infrequent, strong heating events by ''stormy'' weather and more nearly continuous, weak cooling by ''fair'' weather. Such behavior undercuts the value of analyses of time-averaged energy exchanges in observations or numerical models. It is proposed that an analysis of the joint time-related variations of the global weather states and the general circulation on weather space-time scales might be used to establish useful ''feedback like'' relationships between cloud processes and the large-scale circulation.

NCEP MMAB Sea Ice Home Page

Science.gov Websites

NCEP MMAB Sea Ice Home Page The Polar and Great Lakes Ice group works on sea ice analysis from satellite, sea ice modeling, and ice-atmosphere-ocean coupling. Our work supports the Alaska Region of the @noaa.gov Last Modified 2 July 2012 Pages of Interest Analysis Daily Sea Ice Analyses Animations of the

A Summary of the Naval Postgraduate School Research Program.

DTIC Science & Technology

1985-09-30

new model will now be used in a variety of oceanic investigations including the response of the ocean to tropical and extratropical storms (R. L...Numerical Study of Maritime Extratropical e. Cyclones Using FGGE Data ........................... 249 Oceanic Current System Response to Atmospheric...In addition* Professor Jayachandran has performed statistical analyses of the storm tracking methodology used by the Naval Environmental Prediction

Statistical uncertainty of eddy flux-based estimates of gross ecosystem carbon exchange at Howland Forest, Maine

Treesearch

S.C. Hagen; B.H. Braswell; E. Linder; S. Frolking; A.D. Richardson; David Hollinger. D.Y; Hollinger. D.Y

2006-01-01

We present an uncertainty analysis of gross ecosystem carbon exchange (GEE) estimates derived from 7 years of continuous eddy covariance measurements of forest atmosphere CO2 fluxes at Howland Forest, Maine, USA. These data, which have high temporal resolution, can be used to validate process modeling analyses, remote sensing assessments, and field surveys. However,...

All Recent Mars Landers Have Landed Downrange - Are Mars Atmosphere Models Mis-Predicting Density?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Desai, Prasun N.

2008-01-01

All recent Mars landers (Mars Pathfinder, the two Mars Exploration Rovers Spirit and Opportunity, and the Mars Phoenix Lander) have landed further downrange than their pre-entry predictions. Mars Pathfinder landed 27 km downrange of its prediction [1], Spirit and Opportunity landed 13.4 km and 14.9 km, respectively, downrange from their predictions [2], and Phoenix landed 21 km downrange from its prediction [3]. Reconstruction of their entries revealed a lower density profile than the best a priori atmospheric model predictions. Do these results suggest that there is a systemic issue in present Mars atmosphere models that predict a higher density than observed on landing day? Spirit Landing: The landing location for Spirit was 13.4 km downrange of the prediction as shown in Fig. 1. The navigation errors upon Mars arrival were very small [2]. As such, the entry interface conditions were not responsible for this downrange landing. Consequently, experiencing a lower density during the entry was the underlying cause. The reconstructed density profile that Spirit experienced is shown in Fig. 2, which is plotted as a fraction of the pre-entry baseline prediction that was used for all the entry, descent, and landing (EDL) design analyses. The reconstructed density is observed to be less dense throughout the descent reaching a maximum reduction of 15% at 21 km. This lower density corresponded to approximately a 1- low profile relative to the dispersions predicted. Nearly all the deceleration during the entry occurs within 10- 50 km. As such, prediction of density within this altitude band is most critical for entry flight dynamics analyses and design (e.g., aerodynamic and aerothermodynamic predictions, landing location, etc.).

Source tracing of thunderstorm generated inertia-gravity waves observed during the RADAGAST campaign in Niamey, Niger

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naren Athreyas, Kashyapa; Gunawan, Erry; Tay, Bee Kiat

2018-07-01

In recent years, the climate changes and weather have become a major concern which affects the daily life of a human being. Modelling and prediction of the complex atmospheric processes needs extensive theoretical studies and observational analyses to improve the accuracy of the prediction. The RADAGAST campaign was conducted by ARM climate research stationed at Niamey, Niger from January 2006 to January 2007, which was aimed to improve the west African climate studies have provided valuable data for research. In this paper, the characteristics and sources of inertia-gravity waves observed over Niamey during the campaign are investigated. The investigation focuses on highlighting the waves which are generated by thunderstorms which dominate the tropical region. The stratospheric energy densities spectrum is analysed for deriving the wave properties. The waves with Eulerian period from 20 to 50 h occupied most of the spectral power. It was found that the waves observed over Niamey had a dominant eastward propagation with horizontal wavelengths ranging from 350 to 1 400 km, and vertical wavelengths ranging from 0.9 to 3.6 km. GROGRAT model with ERA-Interim model data was used for establishing the background atmosphere to identify the source location of the waves. The waves generated by thunderstorms had propagation distances varying from 200 to 5 000 km and propagation duration from 2 to 4 days. The horizontal phase speeds varied from 2 to 20 m/s with wavelengths varying from 100 to 1 100 km, vertical phase speeds from 0.02 to 0.2 m/s and wavelengths from 2 to 15 km at the source point. The majority of sources were located in South Atlantic ocean and waves propagating towards northeast direction. This study demonstrated the complex large scale coupling in the atmosphere.

Modeling the transformation of atmospheric CO2 into microalgal biomass.

PubMed

Hasan, Mohammed Fahad; Vogt, Frank

2017-10-23

Marine phytoplankton acts as a considerable sink of atmospheric CO 2 as it sequesters large quantities of this greenhouse gas for biomass production. To assess microalgae's counterbalancing of global warming, the quantities of CO 2 they fix need to be determined. For this task, it is mandatory to understand which environmental and physiological parameters govern this transformation from atmospheric CO 2 to microalgal biomass. However, experimental analyses are challenging as it has been found that the chemical environment has a major impact on the physiological properties of the microalgae cells (diameter typ. 5-20 μm). Moreover, the cells can only chemically interact with their immediate vicinity and thus compound sequestration needs to be studied on a microscopic spatial scale. Due to these reasons, computer simulations are a more promising approach than the experimental studies. Modeling software has been developed that describes the dissolution of atmospheric CO 2 into oceans followed by the formation of HCO 3 - which is then transported to individual microalgae cells. The second portion of this model describes the competition of different cell species for this HCO 3 - , a nutrient, as well as its uptake and utilization for cell production. Two microalgae species, i.e. Dunaliella salina and Nannochloropsis oculata, were cultured individually and in a competition situation under different atmospheric CO 2 conditions. It is shown that this novel model's predictions of biomass production are in very good agreement with the experimental flow cytometry results. After model validation, it has been applied to long-term prediction of phytoplankton generation. These investigations were motivated by the question whether or not cell production slows down as cultures grow. This is of relevance as a reduced cell production rate means that the increase in a culture's CO 2 -sinking capacity slows down as well. One implication resulting from this is that an increase in anthropogenic CO 2 may not be counterbalanced by an increase in phytoplankton production. Modeling studies have found that for several different atmospheric CO 2 levels provided to single-species cultures as well as to species in competing scenarios the cell production rate does slow down over time.

Non-LTE spectral analyses of the lately discovered DB-gap white dwarfs from the SDSS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hügelmeyer, S. D.; Dreizler, S.

2009-06-01

For a long time, no hydrogen-deficient white dwarfs have been known that have effective temperature between 30 kK and < 45 kK, i. e. exceeding those of DB white dwarfs and having lower ones than DO white dwarfs. Therefore, this temperature range was long known as the DB-gap. Only recently, the SDSS provided spectra of several candidate DB-gap stars. First analyses based on model spectra calculated under the assumption of local thermodynamic equilibrium (LTE) confirmed that these stars had 30 kK < Teff < 45 kK (Eisenstein et al. 2006). It has been shown for DO white dwarfs that the relaxation of LTE is necessary to account for non local effects in the atmosphere caused by the intense radiation field. Therefore, we calculated a non-LTE model grid and re-analysed the aforementioned set of SDSS spectra. Our results confirm the existence of DB-gap white dwarfs.

Shuttle high resolution accelerometer package experiment results - Atmospheric density measurements between 60-160 km

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Blanchard, R. C.; Hinson, E. W.; Nicholson, J. Y.

1988-01-01

Indirect or inferred values of atmospheric density encountered by the Shuttle Orbiter during reentry have been calculated from acceleration measurements made by the High Resolution Accelerometer Package (HiRAP) and the Orbiter Inertial Measurement Unit (IMU) liner accelerometers. The atmospheric density data developed from this study represent a significant gain with respect to the body of data collected to date by various techniques in the altitude range of 60 to 160 km. The data are unique in that they cover a very wide horizontal range during each flight and provide insight into the actual density variations encountered along the reentry flight path. The data, which were collected over about 3 years, are also characterized by variations in solar activity, geomagnetic index, and local solar time. Comparison of the flight-derived densities with various atmospheric models have been made, and analyses have attempted to characterize the data and to show correlation with selected physical variables.

Mars Pathfinder Atmospheric Entry Navigation Operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Braun, R. D.; Spencer, D. A.; Kallemeyn, P. H.; Vaughan, R. M.

1997-01-01

On July 4, 1997, after traveling close to 500 million km, the Pathfinder spacecraft successfully completed entry, descent, and landing, coming to rest on the surface of Mars just 27 km from its target point. In the present paper, the atmospheric entry and approach navigation activities required in support of this mission are discussed. In particular, the flight software parameter update and landing site prediction analyses performed by the Pathfinder operations navigation team are described. A suite of simulation tools developed during Pathfinder's design cycle, but extendible to Pathfinder operations, are also presented. Data regarding the accuracy of the primary parachute deployment algorithm is extracted from the Pathfinder flight data, demonstrating that this algorithm performed as predicted. The increased probability of mission success through the software parameter update process is discussed. This paper also demonstrates the importance of modeling atmospheric flight uncertainties in the estimation of an accurate landing site. With these atmospheric effects included, the final landed ellipse prediction differs from the post-flight determined landing site by less then 0.5 km in downtrack.

Recent Progress on Labfit: a Multispectrum Analysis Program for Fitting Lineshapes Including the Htp Model and Temperature Dependence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cich, Matthew J.; Guillaume, Alexandre; Drouin, Brian; Benner, D. Chris

2017-06-01

Multispectrum analysis can be a challenge for a variety of reasons. It can be computationally intensive to fit a proper line shape model especially for high resolution experimental data. Band-wide analyses including many transitions along with interactions, across many pressures and temperatures are essential to accurately model, for example, atmospherically relevant systems. Labfit is a fast multispectrum analysis program originally developed by D. Chris Benner with a text-based interface. More recently at JPL a graphical user interface was developed with the goal of increasing the ease of use but also the number of potential users. The HTP lineshape model has been added to Labfit keeping it up-to-date with community standards. Recent analyses using labfit will be shown to demonstrate its ability to competently handle large experimental datasets, including high order lineshape effects, that are otherwise unmanageable.

Plant ecosystem responses to rising atmospheric CO2: applying a "two-timing" approach to assess alternative hypotheses for mechanisms of nutrient limitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Medlyn, B.; Jiang, M.; Zaehle, S.

2017-12-01

There is now ample experimental evidence that the response of terrestrial vegetation to rising atmospheric CO2 concentration is modified by soil nutrient availability. How to represent nutrient cycling processes is thus a key consideration for vegetation models. We have previously used model intercomparison to demonstrate that models incorporating different assumptions predict very different responses at Free-Air CO2 Enrichment experiments. Careful examination of model outputs has provided some insight into the reasons for the different model outcomes, but it is difficult to attribute outcomes to specific assumptions. Here we investigate the impact of individual assumptions in a generic plant carbon-nutrient cycling model. The G'DAY (Generic Decomposition And Yield) model is modified to incorporate alternative hypotheses for nutrient cycling. We analyse the impact of these assumptions in the model using a simple analytical approach known as "two-timing". This analysis identifies the quasi-equilibrium behaviour of the model at the time scales of the component pools. The analysis provides a useful mathematical framework for probing model behaviour and identifying the most critical assumptions for experimental study.

Observing atmospheric blocking with GPS radio occultation - one decade of measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brunner, Lukas; Steiner, Andrea

2017-04-01

Atmospheric blocking has received a lot of attention in recent years due to its impact on mid-latitude circulation and subsequently on weather extremes such as cold and warm spells. So far blocking studies have been based mainly on re-analysis data or model output. However, it has been shown that blocking frequency exhibits considerable inter-model spread in current climate models. Here we use one decade (2006 to 2016) of satellite-based observations from GPS radio occultation (RO) to analyze blocking in RO data building on work by Brunner et al. (2016). Daily fields on a 2.5°×2.5° longitude-latitude grid are calculated by applying an adequate gridding strategy to the RO measurements. For blocking detection we use a standard blocking detection algorithm based on 500 hPa geopotential height (GPH) gradients. We investigate vertically resolved atmospheric variables such as GPH, temperature, and water vapor before, during, and after blocking events to increase process understanding. Moreover, utilizing the coverage of the RO data set, we investigate global blocking frequencies. The main blocking regions in the northern and southern hemisphere are identified and the (vertical) atmospheric structure linked to blocking events is compared. Finally, an inter-comparison of results from RO data to different re-analyses, such as ERA-Interim, MERRA 2, and JRA-55, is presented. Brunner, L., A. K. Steiner, B. Scherllin-Pirscher, and M. W. Jury (2016): Exploring atmospheric blocking with GPS radio occultation observations. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 4593-4604, doi:10.5194/acp-16-4593-2016.

Analysis of the variability of extra-tropical cyclones at the regional scale for the coasts of Northern Germany and investigation of their coastal impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schaaf, Benjamin; Feser, Frauke

2015-04-01

The evaluation of long-term changes in wind speeds is very important for the coastal areas and the protection measures. Therefor the wind variability at the regional scale for the coast of Northern Germany shall be analysed. In order to derive changes in storminess it is essential to analyse long, homogeneous meteorological time series. Wind measurements often suffer from inconsistencies which arise from changes in instrumentation, observation method, or station location. Reanalysis data take into account such inhomogeneities of observation data and convert these measurements into a consistent, gridded data set with the same grid spacing and time intervals. This leads to a smooth, homogeneous data set, but with relatively low resolution (about 210 km for the longest reanalysis data set, the NCEP reanalysis starting in 1948). Therefore a high-resolution regional atmospheric model will be used to bring these reanalyses to a higher resolution, using in addition to a dynamical downscaling approach the spectral nudging technique. This method 'nudges' the large spatial scales of the regional climate model towards the reanalysis, while the smaller spatial scales are left unchanged. It was applied successfully in a number of applications, leading to realistic atmospheric weather descriptions of the past. With the regional climate model COSMO-CLM a very high-resolution data set was calculated for the last 67 years, the period from 1948 until now. The model area is North Germany with the coastal area of the North sea and parts of the Baltic sea. This is one of the first model simulations on climate scale with a very high resolution of 2.8 km, so even small scale effects can be detected. With this hindcast-simulation there are numerous options of evaluation. One can create wind climatologies for regional areas such as for the metropolitan region of Hamburg. Otherwise one can investigate individual storms in a case study. With a filtering and tracking program the course of individual storms can be tracked and compared with observations. Also statistical studies can be done and one can calculate percentiles, return periods and other different extreme value statistic variables. Later, with a further nesting simulation, the resolution can be reduced to 1 km for individual areas of interest to analyse small islands (as Foehr or Amrum) and their effects on the atmospheric flow more closely.

Model-Observation "Data Cubes" for the DOE Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program's LES ARM Symbiotic Simulation and Observation (LASSO) Workflow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vogelmann, A. M.; Gustafson, W. I., Jr.; Toto, T.; Endo, S.; Cheng, X.; Li, Z.; Xiao, H.

2015-12-01

The Department of Energy's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facilities' Large-Eddy Simulation (LES) ARM Symbiotic Simulation and Observation (LASSO) Workflow is currently being designed to provide output from routine LES to complement its extensive observations. The modeling portion of the LASSO workflow is presented by Gustafson et al., which will initially focus on shallow convection over the ARM megasite in Oklahoma, USA. This presentation describes how the LES output will be combined with observations to construct multi-dimensional and dynamically consistent "data cubes", aimed at providing the best description of the atmospheric state for use in analyses by the community. The megasite observations are used to constrain large-eddy simulations that provide a complete spatial and temporal coverage of observables and, further, the simulations also provide information on processes that cannot be observed. Statistical comparisons of model output with their observables are used to assess the quality of a given simulated realization and its associated uncertainties. A data cube is a model-observation package that provides: (1) metrics of model-observation statistical summaries to assess the simulations and the ensemble spread; (2) statistical summaries of additional model property output that cannot be or are very difficult to observe; and (3) snapshots of the 4-D simulated fields from the integration period. Searchable metrics are provided that characterize the general atmospheric state to assist users in finding cases of interest, such as categorization of daily weather conditions and their specific attributes. The data cubes will be accompanied by tools designed for easy access to cube contents from within the ARM archive and externally, the ability to compare multiple data streams within an event as well as across events, and the ability to use common grids and time sampling, where appropriate.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chelaru, Teodor-Viorel, E-mail: teodor.chelaru@upb.ro; Chelaru, Adrian, E-mail: achelaru@incas.ro

The paper purpose is to present some aspects regarding the control system of unmanned aerial vehicle - UAV, used to local observations, surveillance and monitoring interest area. The calculus methodology allows a numerical simulation of UAV evolution in bad atmospheric conditions by using nonlinear model, as well as a linear one for obtaining guidance command. The UAV model which will be presented has six DOF (degrees of freedom), and autonomous control system. This theoretical development allows us to build stability matrix, command matrix and control matrix and finally to analyse the stability of autonomous UAV flight. A robust guidance system,more » based on uncoupled state will be evaluated for different fly conditions and the results will be presented. The flight parameters and guidance will be analysed.« less

Operational seasonal and interannual predictions of ocean conditions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Leetmaa, Ants

1992-01-01

Dr. Leetmaa described current work at the U.S. National Meteorological Center (NMC) on coupled systems leading to a seasonal prediction system. He described the way in which ocean thermal data is quality controlled and used in a four dimensional data assimilation system. This consists of a statistical interpolation scheme, a primitive equation ocean general circulation model, and the atmospheric fluxes that are required to force this. This whole process generated dynamically consist thermohaline and velocity fields for the ocean. Currently routine weekly analyses are performed for the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. These analyses are used for ocean climate diagnostics and as initial conditions for coupled forecast models. Specific examples of output products were shown both in the Pacific and the Atlantic Ocean.

Climate, ecosystems, and planetary futures: The challenge to predict life in Earth system models.

PubMed

Bonan, Gordon B; Doney, Scott C

2018-02-02

Many global change stresses on terrestrial and marine ecosystems affect not only ecosystem services that are essential to humankind, but also the trajectory of future climate by altering energy and mass exchanges with the atmosphere. Earth system models, which simulate terrestrial and marine ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles, offer a common framework for ecological research related to climate processes; analyses of vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation; and climate change mitigation. They provide an opportunity to move beyond physical descriptors of atmospheric and oceanic states to societally relevant quantities such as wildfire risk, habitat loss, water availability, and crop, fishery, and timber yields. To achieve this, the science of climate prediction must be extended to a more multifaceted Earth system prediction that includes the biosphere and its resources. Copyright © 2018, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

The evolution of the Brewer-Dobson Circulation from 1960-2100 in simulations with the Chemistry Climate Model EMAC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oberländer, Sophie; Langematz, Ulrike; Kubin, Anne; Abalichin, Janna; Meul, Stefanie; Jöckel, Patrick; Brühl, Christoph

2010-05-01

First results of research performed within the new DFG Research Unit Stratospheric Change and its Role for Climate Prediction (SHARP) will be presented. SHARP investigates past and future changes in stratospheric dynamics and composition to improve the understanding of global climate change and the accuracy of climate change predictions. SHARP combines the efforts of eight German research institutes and expertise in state-of-the-art climate modelling and observations. Within the scope of the scientific sub-project SHARP-BDC (Brewer-Dobson-Circulation) the past and future evolution of the BDC in an atmosphere with changing composition will be analysed. Radiosonde data show an annual mean cooling of the tropical lower stratosphere over the past few decades (Thompson and Solomon, 2005). Several independent model simulations indicate an acceleration of the BDC due to higher greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations with direct impact on the exchange of air masses between the troposphere and stratosphere (e.g., Butchart et al, 2006). In contrast, from balloon-born measurements no significant acceleration in the BDC could be identified (Engel et al, 2008). This disagreement between observations and model analyses motivates further studies. For the future, expected changes in planetary wave generation and propagation in an atmosphere with increasing GHG concentrations are a major source of uncertainty for predicting future levels of stratospheric composition. To analyse and interpret the past and future evolution of the BDC, results from a transient multi-decadal simulation with the Chemistry-Climate Model (CCM) EMAC will be presented. The model has been integrated from 1960 to 2100 following the SCN2d scenario recommendations of the SPARC CCMVal initiative for the temporal evolution of GHGs, ozone depleting substances and sea surface temperatures as well as sea ice. The role of increasing GHG concentrations for the BDC will be assessed by comparing the SCN2d-results with a ‘non-climate change' (NCC) simulation, in which greenhouse gases have been kept fixed at their 1960 concentrations.

Inversions of synthetic umbral flashes: Effects of scanning time on the inferred atmospheres

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Felipe, T.; Socas-Navarro, H.; Przybylski, D.

2018-06-01

Context. The use of instruments that record narrowband images at selected wavelengths is a common approach in solar observations. They allow scanning of a spectral line by sampling the Stokes profiles with two-dimensional images at each line position, but require a compromise between spectral resolution and temporal cadence. The interpretation and inversion of spectropolarimetric data generally neglect changes in the solar atmosphere during the scanning of line profiles. Aims: We evaluate the impact of the time-dependent acquisition of various wavelengths on the inversion of spectropolarimetric profiles from chromospheric lines during umbral flashes. Methods: Numerical simulations of nonlinear wave propagation in a sunspot model were performed with the code MANCHA. Synthetic Stokes parameters in the Ca II 8542 Å line in NLTE were computed for an umbral flash event using the code NICOLE. Artificial profiles with the same wavelength coverage and temporal cadence from reported observations were constructed and inverted. The inferred atmospheric stratifications were compared with the original simulated models. Results: The inferred atmospheres provide a reasonable characterization of the thermodynamic properties of the atmosphere during most of the phases of the umbral flash. The Stokes profiles present apparent wavelength shifts and other spurious deformations at the early stages of the flash, when the shock wave reaches the formation height of the Ca II 8542 Å line. These features are misinterpreted by the inversion code, which can return unrealistic atmospheric models from a good fit of the Stokes profiles. The misguided results include flashed atmospheres with strong downflows, even though the simulation exhibits upflows during the umbral flash, and large variations in the magnetic field strength. Conclusions: Our analyses validate the inversion of Stokes profiles acquired by sequentially scanning certain selected wavelengths of a line profile, even in the case of rapidly changing chromospheric events such as umbral flashes. However, the inversion results are unreliable during a short period at the development phase of the flash.

Diagnostic methods for atmospheric inversions of long-lived greenhouse gases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michalak, Anna M.; Randazzo, Nina A.; Chevallier, Frédéric

2017-06-01

The ability to predict the trajectory of climate change requires a clear understanding of the emissions and uptake (i.e., surface fluxes) of long-lived greenhouse gases (GHGs). Furthermore, the development of climate policies is driving a need to constrain the budgets of anthropogenic GHG emissions. Inverse problems that couple atmospheric observations of GHG concentrations with an atmospheric chemistry and transport model have increasingly been used to gain insights into surface fluxes. Given the inherent technical challenges associated with their solution, it is imperative that objective approaches exist for the evaluation of such inverse problems. Because direct observation of fluxes at compatible spatiotemporal scales is rarely possible, diagnostics tools must rely on indirect measures. Here we review diagnostics that have been implemented in recent studies and discuss their use in informing adjustments to model setup. We group the diagnostics along a continuum starting with those that are most closely related to the scientific question being targeted, and ending with those most closely tied to the statistical and computational setup of the inversion. We thus begin with diagnostics based on assessments against independent information (e.g., unused atmospheric observations, large-scale scientific constraints), followed by statistical diagnostics of inversion results, diagnostics based on sensitivity tests, and analyses of robustness (e.g., tests focusing on the chemistry and transport model, the atmospheric observations, or the statistical and computational framework), and close with the use of synthetic data experiments (i.e., observing system simulation experiments, OSSEs). We find that existing diagnostics provide a crucial toolbox for evaluating and improving flux estimates but, not surprisingly, cannot overcome the fundamental challenges associated with limited atmospheric observations or the lack of direct flux measurements at compatible scales. As atmospheric inversions are increasingly expected to contribute to national reporting of GHG emissions, the need for developing and implementing robust and transparent evaluation approaches will only grow.

A statistical look at the retrieval of exoplanetary atmospheres of super Earths and giant planets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rocchetto, Marco; Waldmann, Ingo Peter; Tinetti, Giovanna; Yurchenko, Sergey; Tennyson, Jonathan

2015-08-01

Over the past decades transit spectroscopy has become one of the pioneering methods to characterise exoplanetary atmospheres. With the increasing number of observations, and the advent of new ground and spaced based instruments, it is now crucial to find the most optimal and objective methodologies to interpret these data, and understand the information content they convey. This is particularly true for smaller and fainter super Earth type planets.In this conference we will present a new take on the spectral retrieval of transiting planets, with particular focus on super Earth atmospheres. TauREx (Waldmann et al. 2015a,b.) is a new line-by-line radiative transfer atmospheric retrieval framework for transmission and emission spectroscopy of exoplanetary atmospheres, optimised for hot Jupiters and super Earths. The code has been built from scratch with the ideas of scalability, flexibility and automation. This allows to run retrievals with minimum user input that can be scaled to large cluster computing. Priors on the number and types of molecules considered are automatically determined using a custom built pattern recognition algorithm able to identify the most likely absorbers/emitters in the exoplanetary spectra, minimising the human bias in selecting the major atmospheric constituents.Using these tools, we investigate the impact of signal to noise, spectral resolution and wavelength coverage on the retrievability of individual model parameters from transit spectra of super Earths, and put our models to test (Rocchetto et al. 2015). Characterisation of the atmospheres of super Earths through transit spectroscopy is paramount, as it can provide an indirect - and so far unique - way to probe the nature of these planets. For the first time we analyse in a systematic way large grids of spectra generated for different observing scenarios. We perform thousands of retrievals aimed to fully map the degeneracies and understand the statistics of current exoplanetary retrieval models, in the limiting signal-to-noise regime of super Earth observations.

Measurement and modeling of moist processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cotton, William; Starr, David; Mitchell, Kenneth; Fleming, Rex; Koch, Steve; Smith, Steve; Mailhot, Jocelyn; Perkey, Don; Tripoli, Greg

1993-01-01

The keynote talk summarized five years of work simulating observed mesoscale convective systems with the RAMS (Regional Atmospheric Modeling System) model. Excellent results are obtained when simulating squall line or other convective systems that are strongly forced by fronts or other lifting mechanisms. Less highly forced systems are difficult to model. The next topic in this colloquium was measurement of water vapor and other constituents of the hydrologic cycle. Impressive accuracy was shown measuring water vapor with both the airborne DIAL (Differential Absorption Lidar) system and the the ground-based Raman Lidar. NMC's plans for initializing land water hydrology in mesoscale models was presented before water vapor measurement concepts for GCIP were discussed. The subject of using satellite data to provide mesoscale moisture and wind analyses was next. Recent activities in modeling of moist processes in mesoscale systems was reported on. These modeling activities at the Canadian Atmospheric Environment Service (AES) used a hydrostatic, variable-resolution grid model. Next the spatial resolution effects of moisture budgets was discussed; in particular, the effects of temporal resolution on heat and moisture budgets for cumulus parameterization. The conclusion of this colloquium was on modeling scale interaction processes.

Modeling and Observational Study of the Global Atmospheric Impacts of Antarctic Sea Ice Anomalies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bromwich, David H.; Hines, Keith M.

2004-01-01

A combined observational and modeling study considers the linkage between Antarctic sea ice and the climate of non-local latitudes. The observational component is based upon analyses of monthly station observations and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Reanalysis (NNR). The modeling component consists of simulations of the NCAR Community Climate Model versions 2 (CCM2) and 3 (CCM3) and the recent Community Atmosphere Model (CAM2). A convenient mechanism for communication between the Antarctic region (particularly the Ross Sea area) and the tropics and Northern Hemisphere is examined. The first evidence of this teleconnection came from CCM2 simulations performed during an earlier NASA supported project. Annual-cycle simulations with and without Antarctic sea ice show statistically- significant responses in monsoon precipitation over central and northern China during the month of September. The changes in monsoon precipitation are physically consistent with an intensified southwest Pacific (Northern Hemisphere) subtropical high in response to all Antarctic sea ice being removed and replaced with open water at -1.9"C. The intensified high is the northernmost component of three primary anomalies. The southernmost anomaly includes the Ross Sea area, where sea ice has been removed. An earlier study by Peng and Domros had also found a link between Antarctic sea ice and the East Asian monsoon circulation. The current project has helped to understand the teleconnection.

MAFAGS-OS: New opacity sampling model atmospheres for A, F and G stars. I. The model and the solar flux

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grupp, F.

2004-06-01

We present a new opacity sampling model atmosphere code, named MAFAGS-OS. This code, designed for stars reaching from A0 down to G9 on a solar and metal poor main sequence and up to an evolutionary stage represented by the turnoff is introduced in its basic input physics and modelling techniques. Fe I bound-free cross-sections of \\citet{BAUTISTA97} are used and convection is treated according to \\citet{canuto91}. An αcm-parameter for the efficiency of convection of 0.82 is used as determined by \\citet{BERNKOPF98} from stellar evolution requirements. Within the process of opacity sampling, special attention is drawn to the matter of line selection. We show that a selection criterion, in which lines are chosen by their opacity weighted relative to the continuous background opacity, is useful and valid. The solar model calculated using this new code is shown to fit the measured solar flux distribution. It is also tested against the measured solar colours and leads to U-B=0.21 and B-V=0.64, in good agreement with observation. Comparison with measured centre-to-limb continuum data show only small improvement with respect to opacity-sampling type model atmospheres. This is the first of a series of 2 papers. Paper II will deal with the matter of temperature determination using Balmer lines and the infrared-flux method; furthermore it will present three ``standard'' stars analysed using this new model.

Tropical circulation and precipitation response to ozone depletion and recovery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brönnimann, Stefan; Jacques-Coper, Martín; Rozanov, Eugene; Fischer, Andreas M.; Morgenstern, Olaf; Zeng, Guang; Akiyoshi, Hideharu; Yamashita, Yousuke

2017-06-01

Among the few well established changes in atmospheric circulation in recent decades are those caused by stratospheric ozone depletion. They include a strengthening and poleward contraction of the westerly atmospheric circulation over the Southern extratropics, i.e. a strengthening Southern Annular Mode (SAM), in austral spring and summer. Associated effects on extratropical temperature and precipitation and more recently subtropical precipitation have been documented and are understood in a zonal mean framework. We present zonally asymmetric effects of ozone depletion that reach into the tropics and affect atmospheric circulation and precipitation, including the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ), the most important rainband of the Southern Hemisphere. Using observation-based analyses and model simulations we show that over the 1961-1996 period, ozone depletion led to increased precipitation at the northern flank of the SPCZ and to decreased precipitation to the south. The effects originate from a flow pattern over the southwestern Pacific that extends equatorward and alters the propagation of synoptic waves and thus the position of the SPCZ. Model simulations suggest that anticipated stratospheric ozone recovery over the next decades will reverse these effects.

Distant Influence of Kuroshio Eddies on North Pacific Weather Patterns?

PubMed

Ma, Xiaohui; Chang, Ping; Saravanan, R; Montuoro, Raffaele; Hsieh, Jen-Shan; Wu, Dexing; Lin, Xiaopei; Wu, Lixin; Jing, Zhao

2015-12-04

High-resolution satellite measurements of surface winds and sea-surface temperature (SST) reveal strong coupling between meso-scale ocean eddies and near-surface atmospheric flow over eddy-rich oceanic regions, such as the Kuroshio and Gulf Stream, highlighting the importance of meso-scale oceanic features in forcing the atmospheric planetary boundary layer (PBL). Here, we present high-resolution regional climate modeling results, supported by observational analyses, demonstrating that meso-scale SST variability, largely confined in the Kuroshio-Oyashio confluence region (KOCR), can further exert a significant distant influence on winter rainfall variability along the U.S. Northern Pacific coast. The presence of meso-scale SST anomalies enhances the diabatic conversion of latent heat energy to transient eddy energy, intensifying winter cyclogenesis via moist baroclinic instability, which in turn leads to an equivalent barotropic downstream anticyclone anomaly with reduced rainfall. The finding points to the potential of improving forecasts of extratropical winter cyclones and storm systems and projections of their response to future climate change, which are known to have major social and economic impacts, by improving the representation of ocean eddy-atmosphere interaction in forecast and climate models.

Impact of a regional drought on terrestrial carbon fluxes and atmospheric carbon: results from a coupled carbon cycle model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, E.; Koster, R. D.; Ott, L. E.; Weir, B.; Mahanama, S. P. P.; Chang, Y.; Zeng, F.

2017-12-01

Understanding the underlying processes that control the carbon cycle is key to predicting future global change. Much of the uncertainty in the magnitude and variability of the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) stems from uncertainty in terrestrial carbon fluxes. Budget-based analyses show that such fluxes exhibit substantial interannual variability, but the relative impacts of temperature and moisture variations on regional and global scales are poorly understood. Here we investigate the impact of a regional drought on terrestrial carbon fluxes and CO2 mixing ratios over North America using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Model. Two 48-member ensembles of NASA GEOS-5 simulations with fully coupled land and atmosphere carbon components are performed - a control ensemble and an ensemble with an artificially imposed dry land surface anomaly for three months (April-June) over the lower Mississippi River Valley. Comparison of the results using the ensemble approach allows a direct quantification of the impact of the regional drought on local and proximate carbon exchange at the land surface via the carbon-water feedback processes.

The validation of AIRS retrievals

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fetzer, Eric J.; Olsen, Edward T.; Chen, Luke L.; Hagan, Denise E.; Fishbein, Evan; McMillin, Larry; Zhou, Jiang; McMillan, Wallace W.

2003-01-01

The initial validation of Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (SIRS) experiment retrievals were completed in August 2003 as part of public release of version 3.0 data. The associated analyses are reported at http://daac.gsfc.nasa.gov/atmodyn/airs/, where data may be accessed. Here we describe some of those analyses, with an emphasis on cloud cleared radiances, atmospheric temperature profiles, sea surface temperature, total water vapor and atmospheric water vapor profiles. The results are applicable over ocean in the latitude band +/-40 degrees.

Patterns and Variability in Global Ocean Chlorophyll: Satellite Observations and Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gregg, Watson

2004-01-01

Recent analyses of SeaWiFS data have shown that global ocean chlorophyll has increased more than 4% since 1998. The North Pacific ocean basin has increased nearly 19%. These trend analyses follow earlier results showing decadal declines in global ocean chlorophyll and primary production. To understand the causes of these changes and trends we have applied the newly developed NASA Ocean Biogeochemical Assimilation Model (OBAM), which is driven in mechanistic fashion by surface winds, sea surface temperature, atmospheric iron deposition, sea ice, and surface irradiance. The model utilizes chlorophyll from SeaWiFS in a daily assimilation. The model has in place many of the climatic variables that can be expected to produce the changes observed in SeaWiFS data. This enables us to diagnose the model performance, the assimilation performance, and possible causes for the increase in chlorophyll. A full discussion of the changes and trends, possible causes, modeling approaches, and data assimilation will be the focus of the seminar.

Landfalling Tropical Cyclones: Forecast Problems and Associated Research Opportunities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Marks, F.D.; Shay, L.K.; Barnes, G.; Black, P.; Demaria, M.; McCaul, B.; Mounari, J.; Montgomery, M.; Powell, M.; Smith, J.D.; Tuleya, B.; Tripoli, G.; Xie, Lingtian; Zehr, R.

1998-01-01

The Fifth Prospectus Development Team of the U.S. Weather Research Program was charged to identify and delineate emerging research opportunities relevant to the prediction of local weather, flooding, and coastal ocean currents associated with landfalling U.S. hurricanes specifically, and tropical cyclones in general. Central to this theme are basic and applied research topics, including rapid intensity change, initialization of and parameterization in dynamical models, coupling of atmospheric and oceanic models, quantitative use of satellite information, and mobile observing strategies to acquire observations to evaluate and validate predictive models. To improve the necessary understanding of physical processes and provide the initial conditions for realistic predictions, a focused, comprehensive mobile observing system in a translating storm-coordinate system is required. Given the development of proven instrumentation and improvement of existing systems, three-dimensional atmospheric and oceanic datasets need to be acquired whenever major hurricanes threaten the United States. The spatial context of these focused three-dimensional datasets over the storm scales is provided by satellites, aircraft, expendable probes released from aircraft, and coastal (both fixed and mobile), moored, and drifting surface platforms. To take full advantage of these new observations, techniques need to be developed to objectively analyze these observations, and initialize models aimed at improving prediction of hurricane track and intensity from global-scale to mesoscale dynamical models. Multinested models allow prediction of all scales from the global, which determine long- term hurricane motion to the convective scale, which affect intensity. Development of an integrated analysis and model forecast system optimizing the use of three-dimensional observations and providing the necessary forecast skill on all relevant spatial scales is required. Detailed diagnostic analyses of these datasets will lead to improved understanding of the physical processes of hurricane motion, intensity change, the atmospheric and oceanic boundary layers, and the air- sea coupling mechanisms. The ultimate aim of this effort is the construction of real-time analyses of storm surge, winds, and rain, prior to and during landfall, to improve warnings and provide local officials with the comprehensive information required for recovery efforts in the hardest hit areas as quickly as possible.

Global atmospheric circulation statistics, 1000-1 mb

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Randel, William J.

1992-01-01

The atlas presents atmospheric general circulation statistics derived from twelve years (1979-90) of daily National Meteorological Center (NMC) operational geopotential height analyses; it is an update of a prior atlas using data over 1979-1986. These global analyses are available on pressure levels covering 1000-1 mb (approximately 0-50 km). The geopotential grids are a combined product of the Climate Analysis Center (which produces analyses over 70-1 mb) and operational NMC analyses (over 1000-100 mb). Balance horizontal winds and hydrostatic temperatures are derived from the geopotential fields.

The Representation of Extra-tropical Cyclones in Recent Re-Analyses: ERA-Interim, NASA-MERRA, NCEP-CFS and JRA25

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hodges, K.

2010-12-01

Re-analyses are produced using a forecast model, data assimilation system and historical observations. Whilst the observations are common between the re-analyses the way they are assimilated and the forecast model used are often different between the re-analyses which can introduce uncertainty in the representation of particular phenomena between the re-analyses, for example the distribution and properties of weather systems. It is important to inter-compare re-analyses to determine the uncertainty in their representation of the atmosphere, its circulation and weather systems in order to have confidence in their use for studies of the atmosphere and validating climate models. The four recent re-analyses, ERA-Interim, NASA-MERRA, NCEP-CFS and JRA25 are explored and compared for the representation of synoptic scale extra-tropical cyclones. Previous studies of the older re-analyses. ERA40, NCEP-NCAR and DOE has shown that whilst in the NH there was relatively good agreement between the re-analyses in terms of the distribution and properties of extra-tropical cyclones, in the SH there was much larger uncertainty. The newest re-analyses are produced at much higher resolutions than previous re-analyses, in addition more modern data assimilation systems and forecast models have been used. Hence, it would be hoped that the representation of cyclones will be improved to the same extent as that seen in modern NWP systems. This study contrasts extra-tropical cyclones, their distribution and properties, between these new re-analyses and compares them with cyclones in the slightly older though lower resolution JRA25 re-analysis. Results will show that in general in the higher resolution re-analysis more cyclones are identified than in JRA25. In the NH the distribution of storms agrees as well if not better than was the case for the older re-analyses. However, it is in the SH that the largest improvement in agreement is seen for the distribution of storms. For ERA-Interim, NASA-MERRA and NCEP-CFS the agreement in the SH is almost as good as in the NH with the best agreement occurring between ERA-Interim and NCEP-CFS. However, the comparison with JRA25 shows the same level of uncertainty as seen with the older re-analyses. Determining the separation distances of storms using storm matching confirm these results. The biggest differences between the re-analyses occurs for the intensity of storms with the NASA-MERRA having consistently the strongest extreme storms in terms of pressure and winds and JRA25 the weakest, ERA-Interim and NCEP-CFS are very similar in this respect. Using vorticity as an intensity measure shows the greatest sensitivity and goes with resolution. If time permits a comparison of the structure of the storms will also be presented. The approach used only highlights the uncertainty between the re-analyses it does not say which one is right. To try to address this some early results of comparing the re-analyses directly with observations of low level winds from scatterometers in the vicinity of storms will be presented if time permits.

Seasonal-to-Interannual Variability and Land Surface Processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koster, Randal

2004-01-01

Atmospheric chaos severely limits the predictability of precipitation on subseasonal to interannual timescales. Hope for accurate long-term precipitation forecasts lies with simulating atmospheric response to components of the Earth system, such as the ocean, that can be predicted beyond a couple of weeks. Indeed, seasonal forecasts centers now rely heavily on forecasts of ocean circulation. Soil moisture, another slow component of the Earth system, is relatively ignored by the operational seasonal forecasting community. It is starting, however, to garner more attention. Soil moisture anomalies can persist for months. Because these anomalies can have a strong impact on evaporation and other surface energy fluxes, and because the atmosphere may respond consistently to anomalies in the surface fluxes, an accurate soil moisture initialization in a forecast system has the potential to provide additional forecast skill. This potential has motivated a number of atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) studies of soil moisture and its contribution to variability in the climate system. Some of these studies even suggest that in continental midlatitudes during summer, oceanic impacts on precipitation are quite small relative to soil moisture impacts. The model results, though, are strongly model-dependent, with some models showing large impacts and others showing almost none at all. A validation of the model results with observations thus naturally suggests itself, but this is exceedingly difficult. The necessary contemporaneous soil moisture, evaporation, and precipitation measurements at the large scale are virtually non-existent, and even if they did exist, showing statistically that soil moisture affects rainfall would be difficult because the other direction of causality - wherein rainfall affects soil moisture - is unquestionably active and is almost certainly dominant. Nevertheless, joint analyses of observations and AGCM results do reveal some suggestions of land-atmosphere feedback in the observational record, suggestions that soil moisture can affect precipitation over seasonal timescales and across certain large continental areas. The strength of this observed feedback in nature is not large but is still significant enough to be potentially useful, e.g., for forecasts. This talk will address all of these issues. It will begin with a brief overview of land surface modeling in atmospheric models but will then focus on recent research - using both observations and models - into the impact of land surface processes on variability in the climate system.

Evaluation of the MACC operational forecast system - potential and challenges of global near-real-time modelling with respect to reactive gases in the troposphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wagner, A.; Blechschmidt, A.-M.; Bouarar, I.; Brunke, E.-G.; Clerbaux, C.; Cupeiro, M.; Cristofanelli, P.; Eskes, H.; Flemming, J.; Flentje, H.; George, M.; Gilge, S.; Hilboll, A.; Inness, A.; Kapsomenakis, J.; Richter, A.; Ries, L.; Spangl, W.; Stein, O.; Weller, R.; Zerefos, C.

2015-03-01

Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate (MACC/MACCII) currently represents the European Union's Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) (http://www.copernicus.eu), which will become fully operational in the course of 2015. The global near-real-time MACC model production run for aerosol and reactive gases provides daily analyses and 5 day forecasts of atmospheric composition fields. It is the only assimilation system world-wide that is operational to produce global analyses and forecasts of reactive gases and aerosol fields. We have investigated the ability of the MACC analysis system to simulate tropospheric concentrations of reactive gases (CO, O3, and NO2) covering the period between 2009 and 2012. A validation was performed based on CO and O3 surface observations from the Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) network, O3 surface observations from the European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP) and furthermore, NO2 tropospheric columns derived from the satellite sensors SCIAMACHY and GOME-2, and CO total columns derived from the satellite sensor MOPITT. The MACC system proved capable of reproducing reactive gas concentrations in consistent quality, however, with a seasonally dependent bias compared to surface and satellite observations: for northern hemispheric surface O3 mixing ratios, positive biases appear during the warm seasons and negative biases during the cold parts of the years, with monthly Modified Normalised Mean Biases (MNMBs) ranging between -30 and 30% at the surface. Model biases are likely to result from difficulties in the simulation of vertical mixing at night and deficiencies in the model's dry deposition parameterization. Observed tropospheric columns of NO2 and CO could be reproduced correctly during the warm seasons, but are mostly underestimated by the model during the cold seasons, when anthropogenic emissions are at a highest, especially over the US, Europe and Asia. Monthly MNMBs of the satellite data evaluation range between -110 and 40% for NO2 and at most -20% for CO, over the investigated regions. The underestimation is likely to result from a combination of errors concerning the dry deposition parameterization and certain limitations in the current emission inventories, together with an insufficiently established seasonality in the emissions.

High-resolution inversion of OMI formaldehyde columns to quantify isoprene emission on ecosystem-relevant scales: application to the southeast US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaiser, Jennifer; Jacob, Daniel J.; Zhu, Lei; Travis, Katherine R.; Fisher, Jenny A.; González Abad, Gonzalo; Zhang, Lin; Zhang, Xuesong; Fried, Alan; Crounse, John D.; St. Clair, Jason M.; Wisthaler, Armin

2018-04-01

Isoprene emissions from vegetation have a large effect on atmospheric chemistry and air quality. Bottom-up isoprene emission inventories used in atmospheric models are based on limited vegetation information and uncertain land cover data, leading to potentially large errors. Satellite observations of atmospheric formaldehyde (HCHO), a high-yield isoprene oxidation product, provide top-down information to evaluate isoprene emission inventories through inverse analyses. Past inverse analyses have however been hampered by uncertainty in the HCHO satellite data, uncertainty in the time- and NOx-dependent yield of HCHO from isoprene oxidation, and coarse resolution of the atmospheric models used for the inversion. Here we demonstrate the ability to use HCHO satellite data from OMI in a high-resolution inversion to constrain isoprene emissions on ecosystem-relevant scales. The inversion uses the adjoint of the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model at 0.25° × 0.3125° horizontal resolution to interpret observations over the southeast US in August-September 2013. It takes advantage of concurrent NASA SEAC4RS aircraft observations of isoprene and its oxidation products including HCHO to validate the OMI HCHO data over the region, test the GEOS-Chem isoprene oxidation mechanism and NOx environment, and independently evaluate the inversion. This evaluation shows in particular that local model errors in NOx concentrations propagate to biases in inferring isoprene emissions from HCHO data. It is thus essential to correct model NOx biases, which was done here using SEAC4RS observations but can be done more generally using satellite NO2 data concurrently with HCHO. We find in our inversion that isoprene emissions from the widely used MEGAN v2.1 inventory are biased high over the southeast US by 40 % on average, although the broad-scale distributions are correct including maximum emissions in Arkansas/Louisiana and high base emission factors in the oak-covered Ozarks of southeast Missouri. A particularly large discrepancy is in the Edwards Plateau of central Texas where MEGAN v2.1 is too high by a factor of 3, possibly reflecting errors in land cover. The lower isoprene emissions inferred from our inversion, when implemented into GEOS-Chem, decrease surface ozone over the southeast US by 1-3 ppb and decrease the isoprene contribution to organic aerosol from 40 to 20 %.

Atmospheric conditions measured by a wireless sensor network on the local scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lengfeld, K.; Ament, F.

2010-09-01

Atmospheric conditions close to the surface, like temperature, wind speed and humidity, vary on small scales because of surface heterogeneities. Therefore, the traditional measuring approach of using a single, highly accurate station is of limited representativeness for a larger domain, because it is not able to determine these small scale variabilities. However, both the variability and the domain averages are important information for the development and validation of atmospheric models and soil-vegetation-atmosphere-transfer (SVAT) schemes. Due to progress in microelectronics it is possible to construct networks of comparably cheap meteorological stations with moderate accuracy. Such a network provides data in high spatial and temporal resolution. The EPFL Lausanne developed such a network called SensorScope, consisting of low cost autonomous stations. Each station observes air and surface temperature, humidity, wind direction and speed, incoming solar radiation, precipitation, soil moisture and soil temperature and sends the data via radio communication to a base station. This base station forwards the collected data via GSM/GPRS to a central server. The first measuring campaign took place within the FLUXPAT project in August 2009. We deployed 15 stations as a twin transect near Jülich, Germany. To test the quality of the low cost sensors we compared two of them to more accurate reference systems. It turned out, that although the network sensors are not highly accurate, the measurements are consistent. Consequently an analysis of the pattern of atmospheric conditions is feasible. The transect is 2.3 km long and covers different types of vegetation and a small river. Therefore, we analyse the influence of different land surfaces and the distance to the river on meteorological conditions. For example, we found a difference in air temperature of 0.8°C between the station closest to and the station farthest from the river. The decreasing relative humidity with increasing distance to the river meets our expectations. But there are also some unexpected anomalies in the air temperature, which will be discussed in detail by selected case studies. By analysing the correlation of the fluctuation of the meteorological conditions, we want to detect clusters depending on different land surfaces and distance to the river. Since April 2010 a second deployment is set up at the Airport Hamburg. It consists of 14 stations placed along the two runways in northward and in eastward direction. The aim of this project is to analyse whether the atmospheric conditions in such an uniform environment are really homogeneous. To do so we will apply the same analyses for these measurements we used for FLUXPAT.

Nonlinear dynamics of global atmospheric and Earth-system processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Saltzman, Barry; Ebisuzaki, Wesley; Maasch, Kirk A.; Oglesby, Robert; Pandolfo, Lionel

1990-01-01

Researchers are continuing their studies of the nonlinear dynamics of global weather systems. Sensitivity analyses of large-scale dynamical models of the atmosphere (i.e., general circulation models i.e., GCM's) were performed to establish the role of satellite-signatures of soil moisture, sea surface temperature, snow cover, and sea ice as crucial boundary conditions determining global weather variability. To complete their study of the bimodality of the planetary wave states, they are using the dynamical systems approach to construct a low-order theoretical explanation of this phenomenon. This work should have important implications for extended range forecasting of low-frequency oscillations, elucidating the mechanisms for the transitions between the two wave modes. Researchers are using the methods of jump analysis and attractor dimension analysis to examine the long-term satellite records of significant variables (e.g., long wave radiation, and cloud amount), to explore the nature of mode transitions in the atmosphere, and to determine the minimum number of equations needed to describe the main weather variations with a low-order dynamical system. Where feasible they will continue to explore the applicability of the methods of complex dynamical systems analysis to the study of the global earth-system from an integrative viewpoint involving the roles of geochemical cycling and the interactive behavior of the atmosphere, hydrosphere, and biosphere.

Assessing the impacts of assimilating IASI and MOPITT CO retrievals using CESM-CAM-chem and DART

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barré, Jérôme; Gaubert, Benjamin; Arellano, Avelino F. J.; Worden, Helen M.; Edwards, David P.; Deeter, Merritt N.; Anderson, Jeffrey L.; Raeder, Kevin; Collins, Nancy; Tilmes, Simone; Francis, Gene; Clerbaux, Cathy; Emmons, Louisa K.; Pfister, Gabriele G.; Coheur, Pierre-François; Hurtmans, Daniel

2015-10-01

We show the results and evaluation with independent measurements from assimilating both MOPITT (Measurements Of Pollution In The Troposphere) and IASI (Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer) retrieved profiles into the Community Earth System Model (CESM). We used the Data Assimilation Research Testbed ensemble Kalman filter technique, with the full atmospheric chemistry CESM component Community Atmospheric Model with Chemistry. We first discuss the methodology and evaluation of the current data assimilation system with coupled meteorology and chemistry data assimilation. The different capabilities of MOPITT and IASI retrievals are highlighted, with particular attention to instrument vertical sensitivity and coverage and how these impact the analyses. MOPITT and IASI CO retrievals mostly constrain the CO fields close to the main anthropogenic, biogenic, and biomass burning CO sources. In the case of IASI CO assimilation, we also observe constraints on CO far from the sources. During the simulation time period (June and July 2008), CO assimilation of both instruments strongly improves the atmospheric CO state as compared to independent observations, with the higher spatial coverage of IASI providing better results on the global scale. However, the enhanced sensitivity of multispectral MOPITT observations to near surface CO over the main source regions provides synergistic effects at regional scales.

Quantifying Precipitation Variability on Titan Using a GCM and Implications for Observed Geomorphology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faulk, Sean P.; Mitchell, Jonathan L.; Moon, Seulgi; Lora, Juan Manuel

2016-10-01

Titan's zonal-mean precipitation behavior has been widely investigated using general circulation models (GCMs), but the spatial and temporal variability of rainfall in Titan's active hydrologic cycle is less well understood. We conduct statistical analyses of rainfall, diagnosed from GCM simulations of Titan's atmosphere, to determine storm intensity and frequency. Intense storms of methane have been proposed to be critical for enabling mechanical erosion of Titan's surface, as indicated by observations of dendritic valley networks. Using precipitation outputs from the Titan Atmospheric Model (TAM), a GCM shown to realistically simulate many features of Titan's atmosphere, we quantify the precipitation variability within eight separate latitude bins for a variety of initial surface liquid distributions. We find that while the overall wettest regions are indeed the poles, the most intense rainfall generally occurs in the high mid-latitudes, between 45-67.5 degrees, consistent with recent geomorphological observations of alluvial fans concentrated at those latitudes. We also find that precipitation rates necessary for surface erosion, as estimated by Perron et al. (2006) J. Geophys. Res. 111, E11001, frequently occur at all latitudes, with recurrence intervals of less than one Titan year. Such analysis is crucial towards understanding the complex interaction between Titan's atmosphere and surface and defining the influence of precipitation on observed geomorphology.

The Initial Atmospheric Transport (IAT) Code: Description and Validation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Morrow, Charles W.; Bartel, Timothy James

The Initial Atmospheric Transport (IAT) computer code was developed at Sandia National Laboratories as part of their nuclear launch accident consequences analysis suite of computer codes. The purpose of IAT is to predict the initial puff/plume rise resulting from either a solid rocket propellant or liquid rocket fuel fire. The code generates initial conditions for subsequent atmospheric transport calculations. The Initial Atmospheric Transfer (IAT) code has been compared to two data sets which are appropriate to the design space of space launch accident analyses. The primary model uncertainties are the entrainment coefficients for the extended Taylor model. The Titan 34Dmore » accident (1986) was used to calibrate these entrainment settings for a prototypic liquid propellant accident while the recent Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory (JHU/APL, or simply APL) large propellant block tests (2012) were used to calibrate the entrainment settings for prototypic solid propellant accidents. North American Meteorology (NAM )formatted weather data profiles are used by IAT to determine the local buoyancy force balance. The IAT comparisons for the APL solid propellant tests illustrate the sensitivity of the plume elevation to the weather profiles; that is, the weather profile is a dominant factor in determining the plume elevation. The IAT code performed remarkably well and is considered validated for neutral weather conditions.« less

BEATBOX v1.0: Background Error Analysis Testbed with Box Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knote, Christoph; Barré, Jérôme; Eckl, Max

2018-02-01

The Background Error Analysis Testbed (BEATBOX) is a new data assimilation framework for box models. Based on the BOX Model eXtension (BOXMOX) to the Kinetic Pre-Processor (KPP), this framework allows users to conduct performance evaluations of data assimilation experiments, sensitivity analyses, and detailed chemical scheme diagnostics from an observation simulation system experiment (OSSE) point of view. The BEATBOX framework incorporates an observation simulator and a data assimilation system with the possibility of choosing ensemble, adjoint, or combined sensitivities. A user-friendly, Python-based interface allows for the tuning of many parameters for atmospheric chemistry and data assimilation research as well as for educational purposes, for example observation error, model covariances, ensemble size, perturbation distribution in the initial conditions, and so on. In this work, the testbed is described and two case studies are presented to illustrate the design of a typical OSSE experiment, data assimilation experiments, a sensitivity analysis, and a method for diagnosing model errors. BEATBOX is released as an open source tool for the atmospheric chemistry and data assimilation communities.

Investigation of the radiative forcings of thin cirrus in the tropical atmosphere using remote sensing data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yue, Qing

Cirrus clouds have a unique influence on the climate system through their effects on the radiation budget of the earth and the atmosphere. To better understand the radiative effect of cirrus clouds, the microphysical and radiative properties of these clouds, especially tropical thin cirrus clouds, are studied based on both insitu cirrus measurements and satellite remote sensing observations. We perform a correlation analysis involving ice water content (IWC) and mean effective diameter (De) for applications to radiative transfer calculations and climate models using insitu measurements obtained from numerous field campaigns in the tropics, midlatitude, and Arctic regions. In conjunction with the study of cirrus clouds, we develop a high-resolution spectral infrared radiative transfer model for thin cirrus cloudy atmosphere, which is employed to retrieve De and cirrus optical depth from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) infrared spectra. Numerical simulations show that cirrus cloudy radiances in the 800-1130 cm-1 thermal infrared window are sufficiently sensitive to variations in cirrus optical depth, and ice crystal size and habit. A number of nighttime thin cirrus scenes over the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program's Tropical Western Pacific sites have been selected from AIRS datasets for this study. The radiative transfer model is applied to these selected cases to determine cirrus optical depth, De and habit factors. Solar and infrared radiative forcings and heating rates produced by thin cirrus in the tropical atmosphere have been calculated using the retrieved cirrus optical and microphysical properties along with a modified Fu and Liou broadband radiative transfer scheme to analyze their dependence on cirrus cloud properties. Generally, larger TOA warming and smaller surface warming are associated with higher cirrus clouds. To cross-check the validity of our model, the collocated and coincident surface radiation measurements taken by ARM pyrgeometers have been compared with the calculated surface fluxes. Using the method developed in this study, regional radiation budget analyses can be carried out in the future study to quantitatively understand the role of thin cirrus clouds on solar and thermal infrared radiative forcings at the top of the atmosphere, the tropopause, and the surface.

Effect of climatological factors on respiratory syncytial virus epidemics

PubMed Central

NOYOLA, D. E.; MANDEVILLE, P. B.

2008-01-01

SUMMARY Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) presents as yearly epidemics in temperate climates. We analysed the association of atmospheric conditions to RSV epidemics in San Luis Potosí, S.L.P., Mexico. The weekly number of RSV detections between October 2002 and May 2006 were correlated to ambient temperature, barometric pressure, relative humidity, vapour tension, dew point, precipitation, and hours of light using time-series and regression analyses. Of the variation in RSV cases, 49·8% was explained by the study variables. Of the explained variation in RSV cases, 32·5% was explained by the study week and 17·3% was explained by meteorological variables (average daily temperature, maximum daily temperature, temperature at 08:00 hours, and relative humidity at 08:00 hours). We concluded that atmospheric conditions, particularly temperature, partly explain the year to year variability in RSV activity. Identification of additional factors that affect RSV seasonality may help develop a model to predict the onset of RSV epidemics. PMID:18177520

Satellite Observations for Detecting and Tracking Changes in Atmospheric Composition

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Neil, Doreen O.; Kondragunbta, Shobha; Osterman, Gregory; Pickering, Kenneth; Pinder, Robert W.; Prados, Ana I.; Szykman, James

2009-01-01

The satellite observations provide constraints on detailed atmospheric modeling, including emissions inventories, indications of transport, harmonized data over vast areas suitable for trends analysis, and a link between spatial scales ranging from local to global, and temporal scales from diurnal to interannual. 1 The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) long-term commitments help provide these observations in cooperation with international meteorological organizations. NASA s long-term commitments will advance scientifically important observations as part of its Earth Science Program, and will assist the transition of the science measurements to applied analyses through the Applied Science Program. Both NASA and NOAA have begun to provide near realtime data and tools to visualize and analyze satellite data,2 while maintaining data quality, validation, and standards. Consequently, decision-makers can expect satellite data services to support air quality decision making now and in the future. The international scientific community's Integrated Global Atmosphere Chemistry Observation System Report3 outlined a plan for ground-based, airborne and satellite measurements and models to integrate the observations into a four-dimensional representation of the atmosphere (space and time) to support assessment and policy information needs. This plan is being carried out under the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS). Demonstrations of such an integrated capability4 provide new understanding of the changing atmosphere and link policy decisions to benefits for society. In this article, we highlight the use of satellite data to constrain biomass burning emissions, to assess oxides of nitrogen (NO(x)) emission reductions, and to contribute to state implementation plans, as examples of the use of satellite observations for detecting and tracking changes in atmospheric composition.

Regional model studies of the atmospheric dispersion of fine volcanic ash after the eruption of Eyjafjallajoekull

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Langmann, B.; Hort, M. K.

2010-12-01

During the eruption of Eyjafjallajoekull on Iceland in April/May 2010 air traffic over Europe was repeatedly interrupted because of volcanic ash in the atmosphere. This completely unusual situation in Europe leads to the demand of improved crisis management, e.g. European wide regulations of volcanic ash thresholds and improved forecasts of theses thresholds. However, the quality of the forecast of fine volcanic ash concentrations in the atmosphere depends to a great extent on a realistic description of the erupted mass flux of fine ash particles, which is rather uncertain. Numerous aerosol measurements (ground based and satellite remote sensing, and in situ measurements) all over Europe have tracked the volcanic ash clouds during the eruption of Eyjafjallajoekull offering the possibility for an interdisciplinary effort between volcanologists and aerosol researchers to analyse the release and dispersion of fine volcanic ash in order to better understand the needs for realistic volcanic ash forecasts. This contribution describes the uncertainties related to the amount of fine volcanic ash released from Eyjafjallajoekull and its influence on the dispersion of volcanic ash over Europe by numerical modeling. We use the three-dimensional Eulerian atmosphere-chemistry/aerosol model REMOTE (Langmann et al., 2008) to simulate the distribution of volcanic ash as well as its deposition after the eruptions of Eyjafjallajoekull during April and May 2010. The model has been used before to simulate the fate of the volcanic ash after the volcanic eruptions of Kasatochi in 2008 (Langmann et al., 2010) and Mt. Pinatubo in 1991. Comparing our model results with available measurements for the Eyjafjallajoekull eruption we find a quite good agreement with available ash concentrations data measured over Europe as well as with the results from other models. Langmann, B., K. Zakšek and M. Hort, Atmospheric distribution and removal of volcanic ash after the eruption of Kasatochi volcano: A regional model study, J. Geophys. Res., 115, D00L06, doi:10.1029/2009JD013298, 2010. Langmann, B., S. Varghese, E. Marmer, E. Vignati, J. Wilson, P. Stier and C. O’Dowd, Aerosol distribution over Europe: A model evaluation study with detailed aerosol microphysics, Atmos. Chem. Phys. 8, 1591-1607, 2008.

Placing Local Aggregations in a Larger-Scale Context: Hierarchical Modeling of Black-Footed Albatross Dispersion.

PubMed

Michael, P E; Jahncke, J; Hyrenbach, K D

2016-01-01

At-sea surveys facilitate the study of the distribution and abundance of marine birds along standardized transects, in relation to changes in the local environmental conditions and large-scale oceanographic forcing. We analyzed the form and the intensity of black-footed albatross (Phoebastria nigripes: BFAL) spatial dispersion off central California, using five years (2004-2008) of vessel-based surveys of seven replicated survey lines. We related BFAL patchiness to local, regional and basin-wide oceanographic variability using two complementary approaches: a hypothesis-based model and an exploratory analysis. The former tested the strength and sign of hypothesized BFAL responses to environmental variability, within a hierarchical atmosphere-ocean context. The latter explored BFAL cross-correlations with atmospheric / oceanographic variables. While albatross dispersion was not significantly explained by the hierarchical model, the exploratory analysis revealed that aggregations were influenced by static (latitude, depth) and dynamic (wind speed, upwelling) environmental variables. Moreover, the largest BFAL patches occurred along the survey lines with the highest densities, and in association with shallow banks. In turn, the highest BFAL densities occurred during periods of negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation index values and low atmospheric pressure. The exploratory analyses suggest that BFAL dispersion is influenced by basin-wide, regional-scale and local environmental variability. Furthermore, the hypothesis-based model highlights that BFAL do not respond to oceanographic variability in a hierarchical fashion. Instead, their distributions shift more strongly in response to large-scale ocean-atmosphere forcing. Thus, interpreting local changes in BFAL abundance and dispersion requires considering diverse environmental forcing operating at multiple scales.

Rigorous Characterisation of a Novel, Statistically-Based Ocean Colour Algorithm for the PACE Mission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Craig, S. E.; Lee, Z.; Du, K.; Lin, J.

2016-02-01

An approach based on empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of ocean colour spectra has been shown to accurately derive inherent optical properties (IOPs) and chlorophyll concentration in scenarios, such as optically complex waters, where standard algorithms often perform poorly. The algorithm has been successfully used in a number of regional applications, and has also shown promise in a global implementation based on the NASA NOMAD data set. Additionally, it has demonstrated the unique ability to derive ocean colour products from top of atmosphere (TOA) signals with either no or minimal atmospheric correction applied. Due to its high potential for use over coastal and inland waters, the EOF approach is currently being rigorously characterised as part of a suite of approaches that will be used to support the new NASA ocean colour mission, PACE (Pre-Aerosol, Clouds and ocean Ecosystem). A major component in this model characterisation is the generation of a synthetic TOA data set using a coupled ocean-atmosphere radiative transfer model, which has been run to mimic PACE spectral resolution, and under a wide range of geographical locations, water constituent concentrations, and sea surface and atmospheric conditions. The resulting multidimensional data set will be analysed, and results presented on the sensitivity of the model to various combinations of parameters, and preliminary conclusions made regarding the optimal implementation strategy of this promising approach (e.g. on a global, optical water type or regional basis). This will provide vital guidance for operational implementation of the model for both existing satellite ocean colour sensors and the upcoming PACE mission.

Extremely metal-deficient red giants. IV - Equivalent widths for 36 halo giants

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Luck, R. E.; Bond, H. E.

1985-01-01

Further work on a study of 36 metal-poor field red giants is reported. Chemical abundances previously determined were based on model stellar atmosphere analyses of equivalent widths from photographic image-tube echelle spectrograms obtained with with 4-m reflectors at Kitt Peak and Cerro Tololo. A tabulation of the equivalent-width data (a total of 18, 275 equivalent widths) is presented.

Evaluation of major heat waves' mechanisms in EURO-CORDEX RCMs over Central Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lhotka, Ondřej; Kyselý, Jan; Plavcová, Eva

2018-06-01

The main aim of the study is to evaluate the capability of EURO-CORDEX regional climate models (RCMs) to simulate major heat waves in Central Europe and their associated meteorological factors. Three reference major heat waves (1994, 2006, and 2015) were identified in the E-OBS gridded data set, based on their temperature characteristics, length and spatial extent. Atmospheric circulation, precipitation, net shortwave radiation, and evaporative fraction anomalies during these events were assessed using the ERA-Interim reanalysis. The analogous major heat waves and their links to the aforementioned factors were analysed in an ensemble of EURO-CORDEX RCMs driven by various global climate models in the 1970-2016 period. All three reference major heat waves were associated with favourable circulation conditions, precipitation deficit, reduced evaporative fraction and increased net shortwave radiation. This joint contribution of large-scale circulation and land-atmosphere interactions is simulated with difficulties in majority of the RCMs, which affects the magnitude of modelled major heat waves. In some cases, the seemingly good reproduction of major heat waves' magnitude is erroneously achieved through extremely favourable circulation conditions compensated by a substantial surplus of soil moisture or vice versa. These findings point to different driving mechanisms of major heat waves in some RCMs compared to observations, which should be taken into account when analysing and interpreting future projections of these events.

Using CO2:CO Correlations to Improve Inverse Analyses of Carbon Fluxes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Palmer, Paul I.; Suntharalingam, Parvadha; Jones, Dylan B. A.; Jacob, Daniel J.; Streets, David G.; Fu, Qingyan; Vay, Stephanie A.; Sachse, Glen W.

2006-01-01

Observed correlations between atmospheric concentrations of CO2 and CO represent potentially powerful information for improving CO2 surface flux estimates through coupled CO2-CO inverse analyses. We explore the value of these correlations in improving estimates of regional CO2 fluxes in east Asia by using aircraft observations of CO2 and CO from the TRACE-P campaign over the NW Pacific in March 2001. Our inverse model uses regional CO2 and CO surface fluxes as the state vector, separating biospheric and combustion contributions to CO2. CO2-CO error correlation coefficients are included in the inversion as off-diagonal entries in the a priori and observation error covariance matrices. We derive error correlations in a priori combustion source estimates of CO2 and CO by propagating error estimates of fuel consumption rates and emission factors. However, we find that these correlations are weak because CO source uncertainties are mostly determined by emission factors. Observed correlations between atmospheric CO2 and CO concentrations imply corresponding error correlations in the chemical transport model used as the forward model for the inversion. These error correlations in excess of 0.7, as derived from the TRACE-P data, enable a coupled CO2-CO inversion to achieve significant improvement over a CO2-only inversion for quantifying regional fluxes of CO2.

Gravity Waves and Mesospheric Clouds in the Summer Middle Atmosphere: A Comparison of Lidar Measurements and Ray Modeling of Gravity Waves Over Sondrestrom, Greenland

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gerrard, Andrew J.; Kane, Timothy J.; Eckermann, Stephen D.; Thayer, Jeffrey P.

2004-01-01

We conducted gravity wave ray-tracing experiments within an atmospheric region centered near the ARCLITE lidar system at Sondrestrom, Greenland (67N, 310 deg E), in efforts to understand lidar observations of both upper stratospheric gravity wave activity and mesospheric clouds during August 1996 and the summer of 2001. The ray model was used to trace gravity waves through realistic three-dimensional daily-varying background atmospheres in the region, based on forecasts and analyses in the troposphere and stratosphere and climatologies higher up. Reverse ray tracing based on upper stratospheric lidar observations at Sondrestrom was also used to try to objectively identify wave source regions in the troposphere. A source spectrum specified by reverse ray tracing experiments in early August 1996 (when atmospheric flow patterns produced enhanced transmission of waves into the upper stratosphere) yielded model results throughout the remainder of August 1996 that agreed best with the lidar observations. The model also simulated increased vertical group propagation of waves between 40 km and 80 km due to intensifying mean easterlies, which allowed many of the gravity waves observed at 40 km over Sondrestrom to propagate quasi-vertically from 40-80 km and then interact with any mesospheric clouds at 80 km near Sondrestrom, supporting earlier experimentally-inferred correlations between upper stratospheric gravity wave activity and mesospheric cloud backscatter from Sondrestrom lidar observations. A pilot experiment of real-time runs with the model in 2001 using weather forecast data as a low-level background produced less agreement with lidar observations. We believe this is due to limitations in our specified tropospheric source spectrum, the use of climatological winds and temperatures in the upper stratosphere and mesosphere, and missing lidar data from important time periods.

Does plasticity in plant physiological traits explain the rapid increase in water use efficiency? An ecohydrological modeling approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mastrotheodoros, Theodoros; Fatichi, Simone; Pappas, Christoforos; Molnar, Peter; Burlando, Paolo

2016-04-01

The rise of atmospheric CO2 concentration is expected to stimulate plant productivity by enhancing photosynthesis and reducing stomatal conductance and thus increasing plant water use efficiency (WUE) worldwide. An analysis of eddy covariance flux tower data from 21 forested ecosystems across the north hemisphere detected an unexpectedly large increase in WUE (Keenan et al, 2013), which was six times larger than the increase found by most previous studies based on controlled experiments (e.g., FACE), leaf-scale analyses, and numerical modelling. This increase could be solely attributed to the increase in atmospheric CO2 since other confounding factors were ruled out. Here, we investigate the potential contribution of plant plasticity, reflected in the temporal adjustment of major plant physiological traits, on changes in WUE using the ecohydrological model Tethys and Chloris (T&C). We hypothesize that the increase in WUE can be attributed to small variations in plant physiological traits, undetectable through observations, eventually triggered by the atmospheric CO2 increase. Data from the 21 sites in the above mentioned study are used to force the model. Simulation results with and without plasticity in the physiological traits (i.e., model parameters in our numerical experiments) are compared with the observed trends in WUE. We test several plant adaptation strategies in being effective in explaining the observed increase in WUE using a multifactorial numerical experiment in which we perturb in a systematic way selected plant parameters. Keenan, T. F., Hollinger, D. Y., Bohrer, G., Dragoni, D., Munger, J. W., Schmid, H. P., and Richardson, A. D. (2013). Increase in forest water-use efficiency as atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations rise. Nature, 499(7458), 324-7.

Ground-based Observations and Atmospheric Modelling of Energetic Electron Precipitation Effects on Antarctic Mesospheric Chemistry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Newnham, D.; Clilverd, M. A.; Horne, R. B.; Rodger, C. J.; Seppälä, A.; Verronen, P. T.; Andersson, M. E.; Marsh, D. R.; Hendrickx, K.; Megner, L. S.; Kovacs, T.; Feng, W.; Plane, J. M. C.

2016-12-01

The effect of energetic electron precipitation (EEP) on the seasonal and diurnal abundances of nitric oxide (NO) and ozone in the Antarctic middle atmosphere during March 2013 to July 2014 is investigated. Geomagnetic storm activity during this period, close to solar maximum, was driven primarily by impulsive coronal mass ejections. Near-continuous ground-based atmospheric measurements have been made by a passive millimetre-wave radiometer deployed at Halley station (75°37'S, 26°14'W, L = 4.6), Antarctica. This location is directly under the region of radiation-belt EEP, at the extremity of magnetospheric substorm-driven EEP, and deep within the polar vortex during Austral winter. Superposed epoch analyses of the ground based data, together with NO observations made by the Solar Occultation For Ice Experiment (SOFIE) onboard the Aeronomy of Ice in the Mesosphere (AIM) satellite, show enhanced mesospheric NO following moderate geomagnetic storms (Dst ≤ -50 nT). Measurements by co-located 30 MHz riometers indicate simultaneous increases in ionisation at 75-90 km directly above Halley when Kp index ≥ 4. Direct NO production by EEP in the upper mesosphere, versus downward transport of NO from the lower thermosphere, is evaluated using a new version of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model incorporating the full Sodankylä Ion Neutral Chemistry Model (WACCM SIC). Model ionization rates are derived from the Polar orbiting Operational Environmental Satellites (POES) second generation Space Environment Monitor (SEM 2) Medium Energy Proton and Electron Detector instrument (MEPED). The model data are compared with observations to quantify the impact of EEP on stratospheric and mesospheric odd nitrogen (NOx), odd hydrogen (HOx), and ozone.

On the zero-Rossby limit for the primitive equations of the atmosphere*

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Gui-Qiang; Zhang, Ping

2001-09-01

The zero-Rossby limit for the primitive equations governing atmospheric motions is analysed. The limit is important in geophysics for large-scale models (cf Lions 1996 Int. Conf. IAM 95 (Hamburg 1995) (Math. Res. vol 87) (Berlin: Akademie) pp 177-212) and is in the level of the zero relaxation limit for nonlinear partial differential equations (cf Chen et al 1994 Commun. Pure Appl. Math. 47 787-830). It is proved that, if the initial data appropriately approximate data of geostrophic type, the corresponding solutions of the simplified primitive equations approximate the solutions of the quasigeostrophic equations with order ɛ accuracy as the Rossby number ɛ goes to zero.

A Microwave Pressure Sounder

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Flower, D. A.; Peckham, G. E.

1978-01-01

An instrument to measure atmospheric pressure at the earth's surface from an orbiting satellite would be a valuable addition to the expanding inventory of remote sensors. The subject of this report is such an instrument - the Microwave Pressure Sounder (MPS). It is shown that global-ocean coverage is attainable with sufficient accuracy, resolution and observational frequency for meteorological, oceanographic and climate research applications. Surface pressure can be deduced from a measurement of the absorption by an atmospheric column at a frequency in the wing of the oxygen band centered on 60 GHz. An active multifrequency instrument is needed to make this measurement with sufficient accuracy. The selection of optimum operating frequencies is based upon accepted models of surface reflection, oxygen, water vapor and cloud absorption. Numerical simulation using a range of real atmospheres defined by radiosonde observations were used to validate the frequency selection procedure. Analyses are presented of alternative system configurations that define the balance between accuracy and achievable resolution.

Umbral oscillations as resonant modes of magneto-atmospheric waves. [in sunspots

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Scheuer, M. A.; Thomas, J. H.

1981-01-01

Umbral oscillations in sunspots are identified as a resonant response of the umbral atmosphere to forcing by oscillatory convection in the subphotosphere. The full, linearized equations for magnetoatmospheric waves are solved numerically for a detailed model of the umbral atmosphere, for both forced and free oscillations. Resonant 'fast' modes are found, the lowest mode having a period of 153 s, typical of umbral oscillations. A comparison is made with a similar analysis by Uchida and Sakurai (1975), who calculated resonant modes using an approximate ('quasi-Alfven') form of the wave equations. Whereas both analyses give an appropriate value for the period of oscillation, several new features of the motion follow from the full equations. The resonant modes are due to upward reflection in the subphotosphere (due to increasing sound speed) and downward reflection in the photosphere and low chromosphere (due to increasing Alfven speed); downward reflection at the chromosphere-corona transition is unimportant for these modes.

21st Century Rise in Anthropogenic Nitrogen Deposition on a Remote Coral Reef

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ren, H. A.; Chen, Y. C.; Wang, X. T.; Wong, G. T. F.; Cohen, A. L.; DeCarlo, T. M.; Weigand, M. A.; Mii, H. S.; Sigman, D. M.

2017-12-01

With the rapid rise in pollution-associated nitrogen inputs to the western Pacific, it has been suggested that even the open ocean has been impacted through atmospheric deposition. In a coral core from Dongsha Atoll, a coral reef ecosystem 340 km from the nearest continent, we observe a decline in the 15N/14N of coral skeleton-bound organic matter, signaling increased deposition of anthropogenic atmospheric N on the open ocean and its incorporation into plankton and in turn the corals living on the atoll. The decrease began just several years before 2000 CE, decades later than predicted by other work, and the amplitude of decline suggests that anthropogenic atmospheric N input is now 20±5% of the annual N input to the surface ocean in this region, less than two-thirds of that estimated by models and analyses of nutrient ratio changes.

A flash photolysis resonance fluorescence investigation of the reaction OH + CH3CCl3 yields H2O + CH2CCl3. [in troposphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kurylo, M. J.; Anderson, P. C.; Klais, O.

1979-01-01

The absolute rate constant for the reaction OH + CH3CCl3 yields H2O + CH2CCl3 was determined by the flash photolysis resonance fluorescence method from 253 to 363K. The use of the Arrhenius equation with atmospheric observational data on methyl chloroform nearly doubles the predicted tropospheric OH reaction sink strength for the removal of atmospheric gases whose lifetimes are controlled by OH. The increased use of methyl chloroform instead of the restricted trichloroethylene focused attention to its role in stratospheric ozone depletion, producing modeling analyses to determine the amount of released methyl chloroform which reaches the stratosphere. Since the primary atmospheric loss of CH3CCl3 is considered by reaction with OH radicals, these data are used to compute an average tropospheric OH concentration and the strength of the 'global tropospheric OH reaction sink'.

New observations of molecular nitrogen in the Martian upper atmosphere by IUVS on MAVEN

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stevens, M. H.; Evans, J. S.; Schneider, N. M.; Stewart, A. I. F.; Deighan, J.; Jain, S. K.; Crismani, M.; Stiepen, A.; Chaffin, M. S.; McClintock, W. E.; Holsclaw, G. M.; Lefèvre, F.; Lo, D. Y.; Clarke, J. T.; Montmessin, F.; Bougher, S. W.; Jakosky, B. M.

2015-11-01

We identify molecular nitrogen (N2) emissions in the Martian upper atmosphere using the Imaging Ultraviolet Spectrograph (IUVS) on NASA's Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN (MAVEN) mission. We report the first observations of the N2 Lyman-Birge-Hopfield (LBH) bands at Mars and confirm the tentative identification of the N2 Vegard-Kaplan (VK) bands. We retrieve N2 density profiles from the VK limb emissions and compare calculated limb radiances between 90 and 210 km against both observations and predictions from a Mars general circulation model (GCM). Contrary to earlier analyses using other satellite data, we find that N2 abundances exceed GCM results by about a factor of 2 at 130 km but are in agreement at 150 km. The analysis and interpretation are enabled by a linear regression method used to extract components of UV spectra from IUVS limb observations.

Observation Impact over the Antarctic During the Concordiasi Field Campaign

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Boullot, Nathalie; Rabier, Florence; Langland, Rolf; Gelaro, Ron; Cardinali, Carla; Guidard, Vincent; Bauer, Peter; Doerenbecher, Alexis

2014-01-01

The impact of observations on analysis uncertainty and forecast performance was investigated for Austral Spring 2010 over the Southern polar area for four different systems (NRL, GMAO, ECMWF and Meteo-France), at the time of the Concordiasi field experiment. The largest multi model variance in 500 hPa height analyses is found in the southern sub-Antarctic oceanic region, where there are strong atmospheric dynamics, rapid forecast error growth, and fewer upper air wind observation data to constrain the analyses. In terms of data impact the most important observation components are shown to be AMSU, IASI, AIRS, GPS-RO, radiosonde, surface and atmospheric motion vector observations. For sounding data, radiosondes and dropsondes, one can note a large impact of temperature at low levels and a large impact of wind at high levels. Observing system experiments using the Concordiasi dropsondes show a large impact of the observations over the Antarctic plateau extending to lower latitudes with the forecast range, with a large impact around 50 to 70deg South. These experiments indicate there is a potential benefit of better using radiance data over land and sea-ice and innovative atmospheric motion vectors obtained from a combination of various satellites to fill the current data gaps and improve NWP in this region.

Measuring the Spectral Expression of Carbon Dioxide in the Solar Reflected Spectrum with AVIRIS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Green, Robert O.

2001-01-01

Carbon dioxide is a low-concentration, but important, component of the Earth's atmosphere. This gas absorbs electromagnetic radiation (EMR) in several regions of the spectrum. Absorption of energy by carbon dioxide adds heat to the atmosphere. In the world today, the burning of fossil fuels and other anthropogenic processes adds carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. Other natural processes in the Earth's system both add and remove carbon dioxide. Overall, measurements of atmospheric carbon dioxide at selected sites around the globe show an increased carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere. A figure shows the measured carbon dioxide from Mauna Loa, Hawaii, from 1958 to 2000. Overall, the concentration has increased from 315 to 365 ppm at this site over this period. (There is also a yearly cycle to the concentration that is timed with and hypothesized to be related to the vegetation growing season in the Northern Hemisphere.) The overall expected effect of this increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide is trapping of heat in the atmosphere and global warming. While this overall relationship between carbon dioxide and global warming seems straightforward, many of the specific details relating to regional and local sources and sinks and gradients of carbon dioxide are not well understood. A remote sensing capability to measure carbon dioxide could provide important inputs for scientific research to better understand the distribution and change in atmospheric carbon dioxide at detailed spatial and temporal levels. In pursuit of this remote sensing of carbon dioxide objective, this paper analyzes the expression of carbon dioxide in the spectral range measured by the Airborne Visible/Infrared Imagery Spectrometer (AVIRIS). Based on these analyses, a spectral-fitting algorithm that uses AVIRIS measured spectra and MODTRAN radiative-transfer code modeled spectra to derive total column carbon dioxide abundance has been developed. This algorithm has been applied to an AVIRIS data set acquired over Pasadena, California, in 1999 and a data set acquired over the Pacific Ocean near Hawaii in 2000 with promising results. This is ongoing research; the current initial analyses, measurements, and results are reported in this paper.

Large divergence of satellite and Earth system model estimates of global terrestrial CO2 fertilization

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, W. Kolby; Reed, Sasha C.; Cleveland, Cory C.; Ballantyne, Ashley P; Anderegg, William R. L.; Wieder, William R.; Liu, Yi Y; Running, Steven W.

2015-01-01

Atmospheric mass balance analyses suggest that terrestrial carbon (C) storage is increasing, partially abating the atmospheric [CO2] growth rate, although the continued strength of this important ecosystem service remains uncertain. Some evidence suggests that these increases will persist owing to positive responses of vegetation growth (net primary productivity; NPP) to rising atmospheric [CO2] (that is, ‘CO2 fertilization’). Here, we present a new satellite-derived global terrestrial NPP data set, which shows a significant increase in NPP from 1982 to 2011. However, comparison against Earth system model (ESM) NPP estimates reveals a significant divergence, with satellite-derived increases (2.8 ± 1.50%) less than half of ESM-derived increases (7.6  ±  1.67%) over the 30-year period. By isolating the CO2 fertilization effect in each NPP time series and comparing it against a synthesis of available free-air CO2 enrichment data, we provide evidence that much of the discrepancy may be due to an over-sensitivity of ESMs to atmospheric [CO2], potentially reflecting an under-representation of climatic feedbacks and/or a lack of representation of nutrient constraints. Our understanding of CO2 fertilization effects on NPP needs rapid improvement to enable more accurate projections of future C cycle–climate feedbacks; we contend that better integration of modelling, satellite and experimental approaches offers a promising way forward.

Partitioning phase preference for secondary organic aerosol in an urban atmosphere.

PubMed

Chang, Wayne L; Griffin, Robert J; Dabdub, Donald

2010-04-13

Secondary organic aerosol (SOA) comprises a significant portion of atmospheric particular matter. The impact of particular matter on both human health and global climate has long been recognized. Despite its importance, there are still many unanswered questions regarding the formation and evolution of SOA in the atmosphere. This study uses a modeling approach to understand the preferred partitioning behavior of SOA species into aqueous or organic condensed phases. More specifically, this work uses statistical analyses of approximately 24,000 data values for each variable from a state of the art 3D airshed model. Spatial and temporal distributions of fractions of SOA residing in the aqueous phase (fAQ) in the South Coast Air Basin of California are presented. Typical values of fAQ within the basin near the surface range from 5 to 80%. Results show that the likelihood of large fAQ values is inversely proportional to the total SOA loading. Analysis of various meteorological parameters indicates that large fAQ values are predicted because modeled aqueous-phase SOA formation is less sensitive than that of organic-phase SOA to atmospheric conditions that are not conducive to SOA formation. There is a diurnal variation of fAQ near the surface: It tends to be larger during daytime hours than during nighttime hours. Results also indicate that the largest fAQ values are simulated in layers above ground level at night. In summary, one must consider SOA in both organic and aqueous phases for proper regional and global SOA budget estimation.

Estimating Convection Parameters in the GFDL CM2.1 Model Using Ensemble Data Assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Shan; Zhang, Shaoqing; Liu, Zhengyu; Lu, Lv; Zhu, Jiang; Zhang, Xuefeng; Wu, Xinrong; Zhao, Ming; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Zhang, Rong-Hua; Lin, Xiaopei

2018-04-01

Parametric uncertainty in convection parameterization is one major source of model errors that cause model climate drift. Convection parameter tuning has been widely studied in atmospheric models to help mitigate the problem. However, in a fully coupled general circulation model (CGCM), convection parameters which impact the ocean as well as the climate simulation may have different optimal values. This study explores the possibility of estimating convection parameters with an ensemble coupled data assimilation method in a CGCM. Impacts of the convection parameter estimation on climate analysis and forecast are analyzed. In a twin experiment framework, five convection parameters in the GFDL coupled model CM2.1 are estimated individually and simultaneously under both perfect and imperfect model regimes. Results show that the ensemble data assimilation method can help reduce the bias in convection parameters. With estimated convection parameters, the analyses and forecasts for both the atmosphere and the ocean are generally improved. It is also found that information in low latitudes is relatively more important for estimating convection parameters. This study further suggests that when important parameters in appropriate physical parameterizations are identified, incorporating their estimation into traditional ensemble data assimilation procedure could improve the final analysis and climate prediction.

Collision-induced Absorption in the Infrared: A Data Base for Modelling Planetary and Stellar Atmospheres

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Borysow, Aleksandra

1998-01-01

Accurate knowledge of certain collision-induced absorption continua of molecular pairs such as H2-H2, H2-He, H2-CH4, CO2-CO2, etc., is a prerequisite for most spectral analyses and modelling attempts of atmospheres of planets and cold stars. We collect and regularly update simple, state of the art computer programs for the calculation of the absorption coefficient of such molecular pairs over a broad range of temperatures and frequencies, for the various rotovibrational bands. The computational results are in agreement with the existing laboratory measurements of such absorption continua, recorded with a spectral resolution of a few wavenumbers, but reliable computational results may be expected even in the far wings, and at temperatures for which laboratory measurements do not exist. Detailed information is given concerning the systems thus studied, the temperature and frequency ranges considered, the rotovibrational bands thus modelled, and how one may obtain copies of the FORTRAN77 computer programs by e-mail.

Full nonlinear treatment of the global thermospheric wind system. Part 1: Mathematical method and analysis of forces

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Blum, P. W.; Harris, I.

1973-01-01

The equations of horizontal motion of the neutral atmosphere between 120 and 500 km are integrated with the inclusion of all the nonlinear terms of the convective derivative and the viscous forces due to vertical and horizontal velocity gradients. Empirical models of the distribution of neutral and charged particles are assumed to be known. The model of velocities developed is a steady state model. In part 1 the mathematical method used in the integration of the Navier-Stokes equations is described and the various forces are analysed.

A Reanalysis for the Seasonal and Longer-Period Cycles and the Trends in Middle Atmosphere Temperature from the HALOE

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Remsberg, Ellis E.

2007-01-01

Previously published analyses for the seasonal and longer-period cycles in middle atmosphere temperature versus pressure (or T(p)) from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) are extended to just over 14 years and updated to properly account for the effects of autocorrelation in its time series of zonally-averaged data. The updated seasonal terms and annual averages are provided, and they can be used to generate temperature distributions that are representative of the period 1991-2005. QBO-like terms have also been resolved and are provided, and they exhibit good consistency across the range of latitudes and pressure-altitudes. Further, exploratory analyses of the residuals from each of the 221 time series have yielded significant 11-yr solar cycle (or SC-like) and linear trend terms at a number of latitudes and levels. The amplitudes of the SC-like terms for the upper mesosphere agree reasonably with calculations of the direct solar radiative effects for T(p). Those SC amplitudes increase by about a factor of 2 from the lower to the upper mesosphere and are also larger at the middle than at the low latitudes. The diagnosed cooling trends for the subtropical latitudes are in the range, -0.5 to -1.0 K/decade, which is in good agreement with the findings from models of the radiative effects on pressure surfaces due to known increases in atmospheric CO2. The diagnosed trends are somewhat larger than predicted with models for the upper mesosphere of the northern hemisphere middle latitudes.

Regional climate modeling of heat stress, frost, and water stress events in the agricultural region of Southwest Western Australia under the current climate and future climate scenarios.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kala, Jatin; Lyons, Tom J.; Abbs, Deborah J.; Foster, Ian J.

2010-05-01

Heat stress, frost, and water stress events have significant impacts on grain quality and production within the agricultural region (wheat-belt) of Southwest Western Australia (SWWA) (Cramb, 2000) and understanding how the frequency and intensity of these events will change in the future is crucial for management purposes. Hence, the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (Pielke et al, 1992) (RAMS Version 6.0) is used to simulate the past 10 years of the climate of SWWA at a 20 km grid resolution by down-scaling the 6-hourly 1.0 by 1.0 degree National Center for Environmental Prediction Final Analyses from December 1999 to Present. Daily minimum and maximum temperatures, as well as daily rainfall are validated against observations. Simulations of future climate are carried out by down-scaling the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) Mark 3.5 General Circulation Model (Gordon et al, 2002) for 10 years (2046-2055) under the SRES A2 scenario using the Cubic Conformal Atmospheric Model (CCAM) (McGregor and Dix, 2008). The 6-hourly CCAM output is then downscaled to a 20 km resolution using RAMS. Changes in extreme events are discussed within the context of the continued viability of agriculture in SWWA. Cramb, J. (2000) Climate in relation to agriculture in south-western Australia. In: The Wheat Book (Eds W. K. Anderson and J. R. Garlinge). Bulletin 4443. Department of Agriculture, Western Australia. Gordon, H. B., Rotstayn, L. D., McGregor, J. L., Dix, M. R., Kowalczyk, E. A., O'Farrell, S. P., Waterman, L. J., Hirst, A. C., Wilson, S. G., Collier, M. A., Watterson, I. G., and Elliott, T. I. (2002). The CSIRO Mk3 Climate System Model [Electronic publication]. Aspendale: CSIRO Atmospheric Research. (CSIRO Atmospheric Research technical paper; no. 60). 130 p McGregor, J. L., and Dix, M. R., (2008) An updated description of the conformal-cubic atmospheric model. High Resolution Simulation of the Atmosphere and Ocean, Hamilton, K. and Ohfuchi, W., Eds., Springer, 51-76. Pielke, R. A., Cotton, W. R., Walko, R. L., Tremback, C. J., Lyons, W. A., Grasso, L. D., Nicholls, M. E., Moran, M. D., Wesley, D. A., Lee, T. J., Copeland, J. H., (1992) A comprehensive meteorological modeling system - RAMS. Meteorol. Atmos. Phys., 49, 69-91.

On the physical air-sea fluxes for climate modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonekamp, J. G.

2001-02-01

At the sea surface, the atmosphere and the ocean exchange momentum, heat and freshwater. Mechanisms for the exchange are wind stress, turbulent mixing, radiation, evaporation and precipitation. These surface fluxes are characterized by a large spatial and temporal variability and play an important role in not only the mean atmospheric and oceanic circulation, but also in the generation and sustainment of coupled climate fluctuations such as the El Niño/La Niña phenomenon. Therefore, a good knowledge of air-sea fluxes is required for the understanding and prediction of climate changes. As part of long-term comprehensive atmospheric reanalyses with `Numerical Weather Prediction/Data assimilation' systems, data sets of global air-sea fluxes are generated. A good example is the 15-year atmospheric reanalysis of the European Centre for Medium--Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Air-sea flux data sets from these reanalyses are very beneficial for climate research, because they combine a good spatial and temporal coverage with a homogeneous and consistent method of calculation. However, atmospheric reanalyses are still imperfect sources of flux information due to shortcomings in model variables, model parameterizations, assimilation methods, sampling of observations, and quality of observations. Therefore, assessments of the errors and the usefulness of air-sea flux data sets from atmospheric (re-)analyses are relevant contributions to the quantitative study of climate variability. Currently, much research is aimed at assessing the quality and usefulness of the reanalysed air-sea fluxes. Work in this thesis intends to contribute to this assessment. In particular, it attempts to answer three relevant questions. The first question is: What is the best parameterization of the momentum flux? A comparison is made of the wind stress parameterization of the ERA15 reanalysis, the currently generated ERA40 reanalysis and the wind stress measurements over the open ocean. The comparison reveals some clear differences in the mean drag coefficient. In addition, this study has indicated that progress has been made from the ERA15 to the ERA40 reanalyses by replacing the model parameterization with a constant Charnock parameter with one which depends on the sea state. The second research question is whether comparison of the response of an ocean model with ocean observations can be exploited to assess the quality of air-sea fluxes of the ERA15 reanalysis. To answer this question in a systematic way an inverse modeling approach is adopted using a four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4DVAR) scheme. Firstly, the functioning of the 4DVAR system is demonstrated from identical twin experiments. These experiments reveal that in the equatorial Pacific, a large reduction in wind-stress and upper-ocean temperature misfits can be achieved using an assimilation time window of eight weeks. It is concluded that the usefulness of inverse ocean modeling technique for global surface flux assessment is limited. The main merit of the developed ocean 4DVAR scheme will be to diagnose errors in the ocean analyses of the ocean model. The last research question is: are the ERA15 fluxes useful for the study of regional patterns of climate variability? The climate mode of consideration is the Antarctic Circumpolar Wave. This study stresses the importance to have the right climatological forcing conditions to assess time scales of climate variability and it confirms the usefulness of ERA15 air-sea fluxes as ocean model forcing fields to study climate variability on the interannual time scale.

NLTE Line Blanketed Model Atmospheres for Hot, Metal-rich White Dwarfs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hubeny, I.; Lanz, T.

1993-05-01

Recent observations of some hot DA white dwarfs (Feige 24, G191 B2B - Sion et al. 1992, Ap.J. 391, L29; Vennes et al. 1992, Ap.J. 392, L27) and subsequent analyses have demonstrated that their atmospheres are contaminated with heavy metal species with appreciable abundances. So far, modeling was mostly limited to calculating synthetic spectra (usually in LTE), based on previously calculated model atmospheres that were constructed assuming a simplified chemical composition. However, in reality the metal lines may also significantly influence the temperature structure, and consequently the ionization balance of some important species. Since the effective temperature is rather high (55000 to 60000 K), the NLTE effects may be important despite the high gravity. Therefore, in order to settle the question on metal abundances of hot DA white dwarfs, we need to calculate NLTE fully line blanketed model atmospheres. Using our previously developed hybrid complete linearization/accelerated lambda iteration method, we have calculated a set of NLTE models including H, He, C, N, O, and Fe, with some 13000 lines of Fe IV, Fe V and Fe VI taken into account explicitly in model construction. The NLTE departure coefficients for all levels of Fe IV, Fe V, and Fe VI are then employed in the spectrum synthesis program SYNSPEC. In the first part of this study, we present a theoretical comparison between models computed with adding more and more opacity sources, and show how the temperature structure and synthetic spectra develop. We also discuss possible errors arising from using an inconsistent spectrum synthesis (the metals considered only in the spectrum synthesis, not in the model construction). In the second part, we compare the computed UV spectra with with available observations of Feige 24 and G191 B2B, and deduce limits for the iron abundance of these stars.

Calculating the wind energy input to a system using a spatially explicit method that considers atmospheric stability

EPA Science Inventory

Atmospheric stability has a major effect in determining the wind energy doing work in the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL); however, it is seldom considered in determining this value in emergy analyses. One reason that atmospheric stability is not usually considered is that a sui...

Minimizing systematic errors from atmospheric multiple scattering and satellite viewing geometry in coastal zone color scanner level IIA imagery

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Martin, D. L.; Perry, M. J.

1994-01-01

Water-leaving radiances and phytoplankton pigment concentrations are calculated from coastal zone color scanner (CZCS) radiance measurements by removing atmospheric Rayleigh and aerosol radiances from the total radiance signal measured at the satellite. The single greatest source of error in CZCS atmospheric correction algorithms in the assumption that these Rayleigh and aerosol radiances are separable. Multiple-scattering interactions between Rayleigh and aerosol components cause systematic errors in calculated aerosol radiances, and the magnitude of these errors is dependent on aerosol type and optical depth and on satellite viewing geometry. A technique was developed which extends the results of previous radiative transfer modeling by Gordon and Castano to predict the magnitude of these systematic errors for simulated CZCS orbital passes in which the ocean is viewed through a modeled, physically realistic atmosphere. The simulated image mathematically duplicates the exact satellite, Sun, and pixel locations of an actual CZCS image. Errors in the aerosol radiance at 443 nm are calculated for a range of aerosol optical depths. When pixels in the simulated image exceed an error threshhold, the corresponding pixels in the actual CZCS image are flagged and excluded from further analysis or from use in image compositing or compilation of pigment concentration databases. Studies based on time series analyses or compositing of CZCS imagery which do not address Rayleigh-aerosol multiple scattering should be interpreted cautiously, since the fundamental assumption used in their atmospheric correction algorithm is flawed.

Natural lead concentrations in pristine boreal forest soils and past pollution trends: A reference for critical load models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bindler, R.; Braennvall, M.L.; Renberg, I.

1999-10-01

Knowledge of natural, prepollution concentrations of heavy metals in forest soils and temporal trends of soil pollution are essential for understanding present-day pollution and for establishing realistic goals for reductions of atmospheric pollution deposition. Soils not exposed to deposition of atmospheric pollution no longer exist and, for example, present lead (Pb) pollution conditions in northern European soils are a consequence of nearly 4,000 years of atmospheric pollution. The authors use analyses of Pb concentrations and stable Pb isotopes ({sup 206}Pb/{sup 207}Pb ratios) of ombrotrophic peat and forest soils from southern Sweden and a model for Pb cycling in forest soilsmore » to derive an estimate for the prepollution concentration of Pb in the mor layer of boreal forest soils and to back-calculate Pb concentrations for the last 5,500 years. While the present-day concentrations of the mor layer are typically 40--100 {micro}g g{sup {minus}1} (0.25--1.0 g m{sup {minus}2}), Pb concentrations of pristine forest mor layers in Sweden were quite low, {le}0.1 {micro}g g{sup {minus}1} ({le}1 mg m{sup {minus}2}). Large-scale atmospheric pollution from the Greek and Roman cultures increased Pb concentrations to about 1 {micro}g g{sup {minus}1}. Lead (Pb) concentrations increased to about 4 {micro}g g{sup {minus}1} following the increase of metal production and atmospheric pollution in Medieval Europe.« less

Sensitivity of the atmospheric water cycle to corrections of the sea surface temperature bias over southern Africa in a regional climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weber, Torsten; Haensler, Andreas; Jacob, Daniela

2017-12-01

Regional climate models (RCMs) have been used to dynamically downscale global climate projections at high spatial and temporal resolution in order to analyse the atmospheric water cycle. In southern Africa, precipitation pattern were strongly affected by the moisture transport from the southeast Atlantic and southwest Indian Ocean and, consequently, by their sea surface temperatures (SSTs). However, global ocean models often have deficiencies in resolving regional to local scale ocean currents, e.g. in ocean areas offshore the South African continent. By downscaling global climate projections using RCMs, the biased SSTs from the global forcing data were introduced to the RCMs and affected the results of regional climate projections. In this work, the impact of the SST bias correction on precipitation, evaporation and moisture transport were analysed over southern Africa. For this analysis, several experiments were conducted with the regional climate model REMO using corrected and uncorrected SSTs. In these experiments, a global MPI-ESM-LR historical simulation was downscaled with the regional climate model REMO to a high spatial resolution of 50 × 50 km2 and of 25 × 25 km2 for southern Africa using a double-nesting method. The results showed a distinct impact of the corrected SST on the moisture transport, the meridional vertical circulation and on the precipitation pattern in southern Africa. Furthermore, it was found that the experiment with the corrected SST led to a reduction of the wet bias over southern Africa and to a better agreement with observations as without SST bias corrections.

A joint data assimilation system (Tan-Tracker) to simultaneously estimate surface CO2 fluxes and 3-D atmospheric CO2 concentrations from observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, X.; Xie, Z.; Liu, Y.; Cai, Z.; Fu, Y.; Zhang, H.; Feng, L.

2014-12-01

We have developed a novel framework ("Tan-Tracker") for assimilating observations of atmospheric CO2 concentrations, based on the POD-based (proper orthogonal decomposition) ensemble four-dimensional variational data assimilation method (PODEn4DVar). The high flexibility and the high computational efficiency of the PODEn4DVar approach allow us to include both the atmospheric CO2 concentrations and the surface CO2 fluxes as part of the large state vector to be simultaneously estimated from assimilation of atmospheric CO2 observations. Compared to most modern top-down flux inversion approaches, where only surface fluxes are considered as control variables, one major advantage of our joint data assimilation system is that, in principle, no assumption on perfect transport models is needed. In addition, the possibility for Tan-Tracker to use a complete dynamic model to consistently describe the time evolution of CO2 surface fluxes (CFs) and the atmospheric CO2 concentrations represents a better use of observation information for recycling the analyses at each assimilation step in order to improve the forecasts for the following assimilations. An experimental Tan-Tracker system has been built based on a complete augmented dynamical model, where (1) the surface atmosphere CO2 exchanges are prescribed by using a persistent forecasting model for the scaling factors of the first-guess net CO2 surface fluxes and (2) the atmospheric CO2 transport is simulated by using the GEOS-Chem three-dimensional global chemistry transport model. Observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) for assimilating synthetic in situ observations of surface CO2 concentrations are carefully designed to evaluate the effectiveness of the Tan-Tracker system. In particular, detailed comparisons are made with its simplified version (referred to as TT-S) with only CFs taken as the prognostic variables. It is found that our Tan-Tracker system is capable of outperforming TT-S with higher assimilation precision for both CO2 concentrations and CO2 fluxes, mainly due to the simultaneous estimation of CO2 concentrations and CFs in our Tan-Tracker data assimilation system. A experiment for assimilating the real dry-air column CO2 retrievals (XCO2) from the Japanese Greenhouse Gases Observation Satellite (GOSAT) further demonstrates its potential wide applications.

Build-up and wash-off dynamics of atmospherically derived Cu, Pb, Zn and TSS in stormwater runoff as a function of meteorological characteristics.

PubMed

Murphy, Louise U; Cochrane, Thomas A; O'Sullivan, Aisling

2015-03-01

Atmospheric pollutants deposited on impermeable surfaces can be an important source of pollutants to stormwater runoff; however, modelling atmospheric pollutant loads in runoff has rarely been done, because of the challenges and uncertainties in monitoring their contribution. To overcome this, impermeable concrete boards (≈ 1m(2)) were deployed for 11 months in different locations within an urban area (industrial, residential and airside) throughout Christchurch, New Zealand, to capture spatially distributed atmospheric deposition loads in runoff over varying meteorological conditions. Runoff was analysed for total and dissolved Cu, Zn, Pb, and total suspended solids (TSS). Mixed-effect regression models were developed to simulate atmospheric pollutant loads in stormwater runoff. In addition, the models were used to explain the influence of different meteorological characteristics (e.g. antecedent dry days and rain depth) on pollutant build-up and wash-off dynamics. The models predicted approximately 53% to 69% of the variation in pollutant loads and were successful in predicting pollutant-load trends over time which can be useful for general stormwater planning processes. Results from the models illustrated the importance of antecedent dry days on pollutant build-up. Furthermore, results indicated that peak rainfall intensity and rain duration had a significant relationship with TSS and total Pb, whereas, rain depth had a significant relationship with total Cu and total Zn. This suggested that the pollutant speciation phase plays an important role in surface wash-off. Rain intensity and duration had a greater influence when the pollutants were predominantly in their particulate phase. Conversely, rain depth exerted a greater influence when a high fraction of the pollutants were predominantly in their dissolved phase. For all pollutants, the models were represented by a log-arctan relationship for pollutant build-up and a log-log relationship for pollutant wash-off. The modelling approach enables the site-specific relationships between individual pollutants and rainfall characteristics to be investigated. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Swedish Regional Climate Modelling Programme, SWECLIM: a review.

PubMed

Rummukainen, Markku; Bergström, Sten; Persson, Gunn; Rodhe, Johan; Tjernström, Michael

2004-06-01

The Swedish Regional Climate Modelling Programme, SWECLIM, was a 6.5-year national research network for regional climate modeling, regional climate change projections and hydrological impact assessment and information to a wide range of stakeholders. Most of the program activities focussed on the regional climate system of Northern Europe. This led to the establishment of an advanced, coupled atmosphere-ocean-hydrology regional climate model system, a suite of regional climate change projections and progress on relevant data and process studies. These were, in turn, used for information and educational purposes, as a starting point for impact analyses on different societal sectors and provided contributions also to international climate research.

Retrieval of biophysical parameters with AVIRIS and ISM: The Landes Forest, south west France

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zagolski, F.; Gastellu-Etchegorry, J. P.; Mougin, E.; Giordano, G.; Marty, G.; Letoan, T.; Beaudoin, A.

1992-01-01

The first steps of an experiment for investigating the capability of airborne spectrometer data for retrieval of biophysical parameters of vegetation, especially water conditions are presented. Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) and ISM data were acquired in the frame of the 1991 NASA/JPL and CNES campaigns on the Landes, South west France, a large and flat forest area with mainly maritime pines. In-situ measurements were completed at that time; i.e. reflectance spectra, atmospheric profiles, sampling for further laboratory analyses of elements concentrations (lignin, water, cellulose, nitrogen,...). All information was integrated in an already existing data base (age, LAI, DBH, understory cover,...). A methodology was designed for (1) obtaining geometrically and atmospherically corrected reflectance data, (2) registering all available information, and (3) analyzing these multi-source informations. Our objective is to conduct comparative studies with simulation reflectance models, and to improve these models, especially in the MIR.

Overview of NASA's Carbon Monitoring System Flux-Pilot Project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pawson, Steven; Gunson, Michael R.; Jucks, Kenneth

2011-01-01

NASA's space-based observations of physical, chemical and biological parameters in the Earth System along with state-of-the-art modeling capabilities provide unique capabilities for analyses of the carbon cycle. The Carbon Monitoring System is developing an exploratory framework for detecting carbon in the environment and its changes, with a view towards contributing to national and international monitoring activities. The Flux-Pilot Project aims to provide a unified view of land-atmosphere and ocean-atmosphere carbon exchange, using observation-constrained models. Central to the project is the application of NASA's satellite observations (especially MODIS), the ACOS retrievals of the JAXA-GOSAT observations, and the "MERRA" meteorological reanalysis produced with GEOS-S. With a primary objective of estimating uncertainty in computed fluxes, two land- and two ocean-systems are run for 2009-2010 and compared with existing flux estimates. An transport model is used to evaluate simulated CO2 concentrations with in-situ and space-based observations, in order to assess the realism of the fluxes and how uncertainties in fluxes propagate into atmospheric concentrations that can be more readily evaluated. Finally, the atmospheric partial CO2 columns observed from space are inverted to give new estimates of surface fluxes, which are evaluated using the bottom-up estimates and independent datasets. The focus of this presentation will be on the science goals and current achievements of the pilot project, with emphasis on how policy-relevant questions help focus the scientific direction. Examples include the issue of what spatio-temporal resolution of fluxes can be detected from polar-orbiting satellites and whether it is possible to use space-based observations to separate contributions to atmospheric concentrations of (say) fossil-fuel and biological activity

Atmospheric Teleconnection over Eurasia Induced by Aerosol Radiative Forcing During Boreal Spring

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, Maeng-Ki; Lau, K. M.; Chin, Mian; Kim, Kyu-Myong; Sud, Y. C.; Walker, Greg K.

2005-01-01

The direct effects of aerosols on global and regional climate during boreal spring are investigated based on simulations using the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) finite-volume general circulation model (fvGCM) with Microphyics of clouds in Relaxed Arakawa Schubert Scheme (McRAS). The aerosol loading are prescribed from three-dimensional monthly distribution of tropospheric aerosols viz., sulfate, black carbon, organic carbon, soil dust, and sea salt from output of the Goddard Ozone Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport model (GOCART). The aerosol extinction coefficient, single scattering albedo, and asymmetric factor are computed as wavelength-dependent radiative forcing in the radiative transfer scheme of the fvGCM, and as a function of the aerosol loading and ambient relative humidity. We find that anomalous atmospheric heat sources induced by absorbing aerosols (dust and black carbon) excites a planetary scale teleconnection pattern in sea level pressure, temperature and geopotential height spanning North Africa through Eurasia to the North Pacific. Surface cooling due to direct effects of aerosols is found in the vicinity and downstream of the aerosol source regions, i.e., South Asia, East Asia, and northern and western Africa. Additionally, atmospheric heating is found in regions with large loading of dust (over Northern Africa, and Middle East), and black carbon (over South-East Asia). Paradoxically, the most pronounced feature in aerosol-induced surface temperature is an east-west dipole anomaly with strong cooling over the Caspian Sea, and warming over central and northeastern Asia, where aerosol concentration are low. Analyses of circulation anomalies show that the dipole anomaly is a part of an atmospheric teleconnection driven by atmospheric heating anomalies induced by absorbing aerosols in the source regions, but the influence was conveyed globally through barotropic energy dispersion and sustained by feedback processes associated with the regional circulations.

Development of a chlorine chemistry module for the Master Chemical Mechanism

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xue, L. K.; Saunders, S. M.; Wang, T.; Gao, R.; Wang, X. F.; Zhang, Q. Z.; Wang, W. X.

2015-06-01

The chlorine atom (Cl·) has a high potential to perturb atmospheric photochemistry by oxidizing volatile organic compounds (VOCs), but the exact role it plays in the polluted troposphere remains unclear. The Master Chemical Mechanism (MCM) is a near explicit mechanism that has been widely applied in the atmospheric chemistry research. While it addresses comprehensively the chemistry initiated by the OH, O3 and NO3 radicals, its representation of the Cl· chemistry is incomplete as it only considers the reactions for alkanes. In this paper, we develop a more comprehensive Cl· chemistry module that can be directly incorporated within the MCM framework. A suite of 199 chemical reactions describes the Cl·-initiated degradation of alkenes, aromatics, aldehydes, ketones, alcohols, and some organic acids and nitrates, along with the inorganic chemistry involving Cl· and its precursors. To demonstrate the potential influence of the new chemistry module, it was incorporated into a MCM box model to evaluate the impacts of nitryl chloride (ClNO2), a product of nocturnal halogen activation by nitrogen oxides (NOx), on the following-day's atmospheric photochemistry. With constraints of recent observations collected at a coastal site in Hong Kong, southern China, the modeling analyses suggest that the Cl· produced from ClNO2 photolysis may substantially enhance the atmospheric oxidative capacity, VOC oxidation, and O3 formation, particularly in the early morning period. The results demonstrate the critical need for photochemical models to include more fully chlorine chemistry in order to better understand the atmospheric photochemistry in polluted environments subject to intense emissions of NOx, VOCs and chlorine-containing constituents.

Development of a chlorine chemistry module for the Master Chemical Mechanism

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xue, L. K.; Saunders, S. M.; Wang, T.; Gao, R.; Wang, X. F.; Zhang, Q. Z.; Wang, W. X.

2015-10-01

The chlorine atom (Cl·) has a high potential to perturb atmospheric photochemistry by oxidizing volatile organic compounds (VOCs), but the exact role it plays in the polluted troposphere remains unclear. The Master Chemical Mechanism (MCM) is a near-explicit mechanism that has been widely applied in the atmospheric chemistry research. While it addresses comprehensively the chemistry initiated by the OH, O3 and NO3 radicals, its representation of the Cl· chemistry is incomplete as it only considers the reactions for alkanes. In this paper, we develop a more comprehensive Cl· chemistry module that can be directly incorporated within the MCM framework. A suite of 205 chemical reactions describes the Cl·-initiated degradation of alkenes, aromatics, alkynes, aldehydes, ketones, alcohols, and some organic acids and nitrates, along with the inorganic chemistry involving Cl· and its precursors. To demonstrate the potential influence of the new chemistry module, it was incorporated into a MCM box model to evaluate the impacts of nitryl chloride (ClNO2), a product of nocturnal halogen activation by nitrogen oxides (NOX), on the following day's atmospheric photochemistry. With constraints of recent observations collected at a coastal site in Hong Kong, southern China, the modeling analyses suggest that the Cl· produced from ClNO2 photolysis may substantially enhance the atmospheric oxidative capacity, VOC oxidation and O3 formation, particularly in the early morning period. The results demonstrate the critical need for photochemical models to include more detailed chlorine chemistry in order to better understand the atmospheric photochemistry in polluted environments subject to intense emissions of NOX, VOCs and chlorine-containing constituents.

Directional time-distance probing of model sunspot atmospheres

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moradi, H.; Cally, P. S.; Przybylski, D.; Shelyag, S.

2015-05-01

A crucial feature not widely accounted for in local helioseismology is that surface magnetic regions actually open a window from the interior into the solar atmosphere, and that the seismic waves leak through this window, reflect high in the atmosphere, and then re-enter the interior to rejoin the seismic wave field normally confined there. In a series of recent numerical studies using translation invariant atmospheres, we utilized a `directional time-distance helioseismology' measurement scheme to study the implications of the returning fast and Alfvén waves higher up in the solar atmosphere on the seismology at the photosphere (Cally & Moradi 2013; Moradi & Cally 2014). In this study, we extend our directional time-distance analysis to more realistic sunspot-like atmospheres to better understand the direct effects of the magnetic field on helioseismic travel-time measurements in sunspots. In line with our previous findings, we uncover a distinct frequency-dependent directional behaviour in the travel-time measurements, consistent with the signatures of magnetohydrodynamic mode conversion. We found this to be the case regardless of the sunspot field strength or depth of its Wilson depression. We also isolated and analysed the direct contribution from purely thermal perturbations to the measured travel times, finding that waves propagating in the umbra are much more sensitive to the underlying thermal effects of the sunspot.

Laboratory measurements of VUV N2 photoabsorption cross sections and line widths: applications to planetary atmospheric transmission models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, P. L.; Stark, G.; Yoshino, K.

2003-05-01

The analyses of VUV occultation measurements of the N2-rich atmospheres of Titan and Triton are hampered by the lack of fundamental spectroscopic data for N2. There is a need for reliable photoabsorption cross sections and line widths for the 100 electronic bands of N2 in the 80 to 100 nm wavelength region. We present analyses of new measurements of individual line strengths and widths in N2 bands in the region 94 to 100 nm. Within individual bands, we find significant departures from the predicted line strength distributions based on isolated band models. Line width analyses within each band indicate that predissociation-broadening is often highly dependent on the rotational quantum number. We illustrate the importance of N2 line widths in the analysis of occultation measurements via N2 transmission models over selected wavelength regions. We have continued to compile on-line molecular spectroscopic atlas based on our N2 laboratory data: http://cfa-www.harvard.edu/amdata/ampdata/N2ARCHIVE/n2home.html. The archive includes published and unpublished 14N2, 14N15N, and 15N2 line lists and spectroscopic identifications, excited state energy levels, band and line f-values, a summary of published band f-value and line width measurements, and a cross-referenced summary of the relevant N2 literature. The listings are searchable by wavelength interval or band identification and are suitable for down-loading in a convenient format. We gratefully acknowledge funding support from NASA grant NAG5-9059 and the Smithsonian Institution Atherton-Seidell Grant Program.

On-Ground Casualty Risk Reduction by Structural Design for Demise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lemmens, Stijn; Krag, Holger; Funke, Quirin

In recent years, awareness concerning the risk posed by un-controlled re-entering spacecraft on ground has increased. Some re-entry events such as ESA's GOCE in 2013 and NASA's UARS appeared prominent in international media. Space agencies and nations, in cooperation within the Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (IADC), have established a requirements to limited the on-ground risk for future missions. To meet the requirements, the amount of debris falling back on Earth has to be limited in number, mass and size. Design for demise (D4D) refers to all measures taken in the design of a space object to increase the potential for demise of the object and its components during re-entry. SCARAB (Spacecraft Atmospheric Re-entry and Break-Up) is ESA's high-fidelity tool which analyses the thermal and structural effects of atmospheric re-entry on spacecraft in a finite-element approach. For this study, a model of a representative satellite is developed in Scarab to serve as test-bed for D4D analysis on a structural level. The model is used as starting point for different D4D approaches based on increasing the exposure of the satellite components to the aero-thermal environment, as a way to speed up the demise. Statistical bootstrapping is applied to the resulting on-ground fragment lists in order to compare the different re-entry scenarios and to determine the uncertainties of the results. Moreover, the bootstrap results can be used to analyse the casualty risk estimator from a theoretical point of view. The risk reductions for the analysed D4D techniques are presented w.r.t. the reference scenario for the modelled representative satellite.

Quantifying the Aerosol Semi-Direct Effect in the NASA GEOS-5 AGCM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Randles, Cynthia A.; Colarco, Peter R.; daSilva, Arlindo

2011-01-01

Aerosols such as black carbon, dust, and some organic carbon species both scatter and absorb incoming solar radiation. This direct aerosol radiative forcing (DARF) redistributes solar energy both by cooling the surface and warming the atmosphere. As a result, these aerosols affect atmospheric stability and cloud cover (the semi-direct effect, or SDE). Furthermore, in regions with persistent high loadings of absorbing aerosols (e.g. Asia), regional circulation patterns may be altered, potentially resulting in changes in precipitation patterns. Here we investigate aerosol-climate coupling using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System model version 5 (GEOS-5) atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), in which we have implemented an online version of the Goddard Chemistry, Aerosol, Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model. GOCART includes representations of the sources, sinks, and chemical transformation of externally mixed dust, sea salt, sulfate, and carbonaceous aerosols. We examine a series of free-running ensemble climate simulations of the present-day period (2000-2009) forced by observed sea surface temperatures to determine the impact of aerosols on the model climate. The SDE and response of each simulation is determined by differencing with respect to the control simulation (no aerosol forcing). In a free-running model, any estimate of the SDE includes changes in clouds due both to atmospheric heating from aerosols and changes in circulation. To try and quantify the SDE without these circulation changes we then examine the DARF and SDE in GEOS-5 with prescribed meteorological analyses introduced by the MERRA analysis. By doing so, we are able to examine changes in model clouds that occur on shorter scales (six hours). In the GEOS-5 data assimilation system (DAS), the analysis is defined as the best estimate of the atmospheric state at any given time, and it is determined by optimally combining a first-guess short-term GCM forecast with all available observations. The Incremental Analysis Update (IAU) is added to the model forecast tendencies to align them with the analysis every six hours, thus preventing longer timescale feedbacks due to the aerosol forcing. We calculate the SDE by comparing model runs with and without aerosols, and the difference in the IAU between these runs is a useful metric with which to evaluate the impact of the SDE on the model atmosphere and clouds. Decreasing the IAU indicates that the aerosol direct and semi-direct effects act to reduce the bias between the model and observations and vice versa.

Copernicus atmospheric service for stratospheric ozone: validation and intercomparison of four near real-time analyses, 2009-2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lefever, K.; van der A, R.; Baier, F.; Christophe, Y.; Errera, Q.; Eskes, H.; Flemming, J.; Inness, A.; Jones, L.; Lambert, J.-C.; Langerock, B.; Schultz, M. G.; Stein, O.; Wagner, A.; Chabrillat, S.

2014-05-01

This paper evaluates the performance of the stratospheric ozone analyses delivered in near real time by the MACC (Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate) project during the 3 year period between September 2009 and September 2012. Ozone analyses produced by four different chemistry transport models and data assimilation techniques are examined: the ECMWF Integrated Forecast System (IFS) coupled to MOZART-3 (IFS-MOZART), the BIRA-IASB Belgian Assimilation System for Chemical ObsErvations (BASCOE), the DLR/RIU Synoptic Analysis of Chemical Constituents by Advanced Data Assimilation (SACADA), and the KNMI Data Assimilation Model based on Transport Model version 3 (TM3DAM). The assimilated satellite ozone retrievals differed for each system: SACADA and TM3DAM assimilated only total ozone observations, BASCOE assimilated profiles for ozone and some related species, while IFS-MOZART assimilated both types of ozone observations. The stratospheric ozone analyses are compared to independent ozone observations from ground-based instruments, ozone sondes and the ACE-FTS (Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment - Fourier Transform Spectrometer) satellite instrument. All analyses show total column values which are generally in good agreement with groundbased observations (biases <5%) and a realistic seasonal cycle. The only exceptions are found for BASCOE which systematically underestimates total ozone in the Tropics with about 7-10% at Chengkung (Taiwan, 23.1° N/121.365° E), resulting from the fact that BASCOE does not include any tropospheric processes, and for SACADA which overestimates total ozone in the absence of UV observations for the assimilation. Due to the large weight given to column observations in the assimilation procedure, IFS-MOZART is able to reproduce total column observations very well, but alternating positive and negative biases compared to ozonesonde and ACE-FTS satellite data are found in the vertical as well as an overestimation of 30 to 60% in the polar lower stratosphere during ozone depletion events. The assimilation of near real-time (NRT) Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) profiles which only go down to 68 hPa is not able to correct for the deficiency of the underlying MOZART model, which may be related to the applied meteorological fields. Biases of BASCOE compared to ozonesonde or ACE-FTS ozone profiles do not exceed 10% over the entire vertical stratospheric range, thanks to the good performance of the model in ozone hole conditions and the assimilation of offline MLS profiles going down to 215 hPa. TM3DAM provides very realistic total ozone columns, but is not designed to provide information on the vertical distribution of ozone. Compared to ozonesondes and ACE-FTS satellite data, SACADA performs best in the Arctic, but shows large biases (>50%) for ozone in the lower stratosphere in the Tropics and in the Antarctic, especially during ozone hole conditions. This study shows that ozone analyses with realistic total ozone column densities do not necessarily yield good agreement with the observed ozone profiles. It also shows the large benefit obtained from the assimilation of a single limb-scanning instrument (Aura MLS) with a high density of observations. Hence even state-of-the-art models of stratospheric chemistry still require the assimilation of limb observations for a correct representation of the vertical distribution of ozone in the stratosphere.

The Carbon-Land Model Intercomparison Project (C-LAMP): A Model-Data Comparison System for Evaluation of Coupled Biosphere-Atmosphere Models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hoffman, Forrest M; Randerson, Jim; Thornton, Peter E

2009-01-01

The need to capture important climate feebacks in general circulation models (GCMs) has resulted in new efforts to include atmospheric chemistry and land and ocean biogeochemistry into the next generation of production climate models, now often referred to as Earth System Models (ESMs). While many terrestrial and ocean carbon models have been coupled to GCMs, recent work has shown that such models can yield a wide range of results, suggesting that a more rigorous set of offline and partially coupled experiments, along with detailed analyses of processes and comparisons with measurements, are warranted. The Carbon-Land Model Intercomparison Project (C-LAMP) providesmore » a simulation protocol and model performance metrics based upon comparisons against best-available satellite- and ground-based measurements (Hoffman et al., 2007). C-LAMP provides feedback to the modeling community regarding model improvements and to the measurement community by suggesting new observational campaigns. C-LAMP Experiment 1 consists of a set of uncoupled simulations of terrestrial carbon models specifically designed to examine the ability of the models to reproduce surface carbon and energy fluxes at multiple sites and to exhibit the influence of climate variability, prescribed atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}), nitrogen (N) deposition, and land cover change on projections of terrestrial carbon fluxes during the 20th century. Experiment 2 consists of partially coupled simulations of the terrestrial carbon model with an active atmosphere model exchanging energy and moisture fluxes. In all experiments, atmospheric CO{sub 2} follows the prescribed historical trajectory from C{sup 4}MIP. In Experiment 2, the atmosphere model is forced with prescribed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and corresponding sea ice concentrations from the Hadley Centre; prescribed CO{sub 2} is radiatively active; and land, fossil fuel, and ocean CO{sub 2} fluxes are advected by the model. Both sets of experiments have been performed using two different terrestrial biogeochemistry modules coupled to the Community Land Model version 3 (CLM3) in the Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3): The CASA model of Fung, et al., and the carbon-nitrogen (CN) model of Thornton. Comparisons against Ameriflus site measurements, MODIS satellite observations, NOAA flask records, TRANSCOM inversions, and Free Air CO{sub 2} Enrichment (FACE) site measurements, and other datasets have been performed and are described in Randerson et al. (2009). The C-LAMP diagnostics package was used to validate improvements to CASA and CN for use in the next generation model, CLM4. It is hoped that this effort will serve as a prototype for an international carbon-cycle model benchmarking activity for models being used for the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report. More information about C-LAMP, the experimental protocol, performance metrics, output standards, and model-data comparisons from the CLM3-CASA and CLM3-CN models are available at http://www.climatemodeling.org/c-lamp.« less

Atmospheric Moisture Variability and Transmission of Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome in Changsha City, Mainland China, 1991–2010

PubMed Central

Li, Xiu-Jun; Tong, Shi-Lu; Gao, Li-Dong; Qin, Jian-Xin; Lin, Xiao-Ling; Liu, Hai-Ning; Zhang, Xi-Xing

2013-01-01

Background The transmission of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is influenced by environmental determinants. This study aimed to explore the association between atmospheric moisture variability and the transmission of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) for the period of 1991–2010 in Changsha, China. Methods and Findings Wavelet analyses were performed by using monthly reported time series data of HFRS cases to detect and quantify the periodicity of HFRS. A generalized linear model with a Poisson distribution and a log link model were used to quantify the relationship between climate and HFRS cases, highlighting the importance of moisture conditions. There was a continuous annual oscillation mode and multi-annual cycle around 3–4 years from 1994 to 1999. There was a significant association of HFRS incidence with moisture conditions and the Multivariate El Niño–Southern Oscillation Index (MEI). Particularly, atmospheric moisture has a significant effect on the propagation of HFRS; annual incidence of HFRS was positively correlated with annual precipitation and annual mean absolute humidity. Conclusions The final model had good accuracy in forecasting the occurrence of HFRS and moisture condition can be used in disease surveillance and risk management to provide early warning of potential epidemics of this disease. PMID:23755316

Retrieval of ice cloud properties using an optimal estimation algorithm and MODIS infrared observations: 1. Forward model, error analysis, and information content

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Chenxi; Platnick, Steven; Zhang, Zhibo; Meyer, Kerry; Yang, Ping

2016-05-01

An optimal estimation (OE) retrieval method is developed to infer three ice cloud properties simultaneously: optical thickness (τ), effective radius (reff), and cloud top height (h). This method is based on a fast radiative transfer (RT) model and infrared (IR) observations from the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). This study conducts thorough error and information content analyses to understand the error propagation and performance of retrievals from various MODIS band combinations under different cloud/atmosphere states. Specifically, the algorithm takes into account four error sources: measurement uncertainty, fast RT model uncertainty, uncertainties in ancillary data sets (e.g., atmospheric state), and assumed ice crystal habit uncertainties. It is found that the ancillary and ice crystal habit error sources dominate the MODIS IR retrieval uncertainty and cannot be ignored. The information content analysis shows that for a given ice cloud, the use of four MODIS IR observations is sufficient to retrieve the three cloud properties. However, the selection of MODIS IR bands that provide the most information and their order of importance varies with both the ice cloud properties and the ambient atmospheric and the surface states. As a result, this study suggests the inclusion of all MODIS IR bands in practice since little a priori information is available.

Retrieval of ice cloud properties using an optimal estimation algorithm and MODIS infrared observations. Part I: Forward model, error analysis, and information content.

PubMed

Wang, Chenxi; Platnick, Steven; Zhang, Zhibo; Meyer, Kerry; Yang, Ping

2016-05-27

An optimal estimation (OE) retrieval method is developed to infer three ice cloud properties simultaneously: optical thickness ( τ ), effective radius ( r eff ), and cloud-top height ( h ). This method is based on a fast radiative transfer (RT) model and infrared (IR) observations from the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). This study conducts thorough error and information content analyses to understand the error propagation and performance of retrievals from various MODIS band combinations under different cloud/atmosphere states. Specifically, the algorithm takes into account four error sources: measurement uncertainty, fast RT model uncertainty, uncertainties in ancillary datasets (e.g., atmospheric state), and assumed ice crystal habit uncertainties. It is found that the ancillary and ice crystal habit error sources dominate the MODIS IR retrieval uncertainty and cannot be ignored. The information content analysis shows that, for a given ice cloud, the use of four MODIS IR observations is sufficient to retrieve the three cloud properties. However, the selection of MODIS IR bands that provide the most information and their order of importance varies with both the ice cloud properties and the ambient atmospheric and the surface states. As a result, this study suggests the inclusion of all MODIS IR bands in practice since little a priori information is available.

Chemical characterization of PM2.5 from a southern coastal city of China: applications of modeling and chemical tracers in demonstration of regional transport.

PubMed

Zhou, Jiamao; Ho, Steven Sai Hang; Cao, Junji; Zhao, Zhuzi; Zhao, Shuyu; Zhu, Chongshu; Wang, Qiyuan; Liu, Suixin; Zhang, Ting; Zhao, Youzhi; Wang, Ping; Tie, Xuexi

2018-05-11

An intensive sampling campaign of airborne fine particles (PM 2.5 ) was conducted at Sanya, a coastal city in Southern China, from January to February 2012. Chemical analyses and mass reconstruction were used identify potential pollution sources and investigate atmospheric reaction mechanisms. A thermodynamic model indicated that low ammonia and high relative humidity caused the aerosols be acidic and that drove heterogeneous reactions which led to the formation of secondary inorganic aerosol. Relationships among neutralization ratios, free acidity, and air-mass trajectories suggest that the atmosphere at Sanya was impacted by both local and regional emissions. Three major transport pathways were identified, and flow from the northeast (from South China) typically brought the most polluted air to Sanya. A case study confirmed strong impact from South China (e.g., Pearl River Delta region) (contributed 76.8% to EC, and then this result can be extended to primary pollutants) when the northeast winds were dominant. The Weather Research Forecasting Black carbon model and trace organic markers were used to apportion local pollution versus regional contributions. Results of the study offer new insights into the atmospheric conditions and air pollution at this coastal city.

Satellite-based Analysis of CO Variability over the Amazon Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deeter, M. N.; Emmons, L. K.; Martinez-Alonso, S.; Tilmes, S.; Wiedinmyer, C.

2017-12-01

Pyrogenic emissions from the Amazon Basin exert significant influence on both climate and air quality but are highly variable from year to year. The ability of models to simulate the impact of biomass burning emissions on downstream atmospheric concentrations depends on (1) the quality of surface flux estimates (i.e., emissions inventories), (2) model dynamics (e.g., horizontal winds, large-scale convection and mixing) and (3) the representation of atmospheric chemical processes. With an atmospheric lifetime of a few months, carbon monoxide (CO) is a commonly used diagnostic for biomass burning. CO products are available from several satellite instruments and allow analyses of CO variability over extended regions such as the Amazon Basin with useful spatial and temporal sampling characteristics. The MOPITT ('Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere') instrument was launched on the NASA Terra platform near the end of 1999 and is still operational. MOPITT is uniquely capable of measuring tropospheric CO concentrations using both thermal-infrared and near-infrared observations, resulting in the ability to independently retrieve lower- and upper-troposphere CO concentrations. We exploit the 18-year MOPITT record and related datasets to analyze the variability of CO over the Amazon Basin and evaluate simulations performed with the CAM-chem chemical transport model. We demonstrate that observed differences between MOPITT observations and model simulations provide important clues regarding emissions inventories, convective mixing and long-range transport.

Data Assimilation and Regional Forecasts using Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder (AIRS) Profiles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zabodsky, Brad; Chou, Shih-Hung; Jedlovec, Gary J.

2009-01-01

In data sparse regions, remotely-sensed observations can be used to improve analyses, which in turn should lead to better forecasts. One such source comes from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), which, together with the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU), provides temperature and moisture profiles with an accuracy comparable to that of radionsondes. The purpose of this poster is to describe a procedure to optimally assimilate AIRS thermodynamic profiles, obtained from the version 5.0 Earth Observing System (EOS) science team retrieval algorithm, into a regional configuration of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model using WRF-Var. The poster focuses on development of background error covariances for the regional domain and background field type, a methodology for ingesting AIRS profiles as separate over-land and over-water retrievals with different error characteristics, and utilization of level-by-level quality indicators to select only the highest quality data. The assessment of the impact of the AIRS profiles on WRF-Var analyses will focus on intelligent use of the quality indicators, optimized tuning of the WRF-Var, and comparison of analysis soundings to radiosondes. The analyses are used to conduct a month-long series of regional forecasts over the continental U.S. The long-term impact of AIRS profiles on forecast will be assessed against NAM analyses and stage IV precipitation data.

Exoplanet Characterization With Spitzer Eclipses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harrington, Joseph

We will analyze our existing Spitzer eclipse data for 11 exoplanets (GJ 436b, WASP-8b, WASP-29b, WASP-11b, TrES-1, WASP-34b, WASP-43b, HD 209458b, HAT-P-30b, HAT-P-13b, and WASP-12b) along with all other Spitzer eclipse and transit data for these systems (723 hours of total data). In combination with transit results, these measurements reveal the surface fluxes emitted by the planets' atmospheres in the six Spitzer bandpasses (3.6, 4.5, 5.8, 8.0, 16, and 24 1-4m), as well as orbital eccentricity and in a few cases possibly even precession rate. The fluxes, in turn, can constrain atmospheric composition and thermal profiles. We propose here to analyze data for these planets using Monte Carlo-driven, radiative-transfer, model-fitting codes; to conduct aggregate analyses; and to develop and share statistical modeling tools. Secondary eclipses provide us with a unique way to characterize exoplanetary atmospheres. Since other techniques like spectroscopy divide the planetary signal into many channels, they require very high signal-to-noise ratio (S/N) and are only possible for a few planets. Broadband eclipse photometry is thus the only technique that can measure dozens of atmospheres and identify the mechanisms that cause planets at a given irradiation level to behave so differently from one another. Until JWST becomes available, the broad variety of Spitzer data that we already have in hand, along with observations from the Hubble Space Telescope and possibly SOFIA, are our best way to understand the wide diversity of exoplanetary atmospheres. Since 2010, the team has produced six papers from a new, highly modular pipeline that implements optimal methods for analysis of Spitzer photometric time series, and our efficiency is increasing. The sensitivity needed for these measurements is up to 100 times better than Spitzer's design criteria, so careful treatment of systematic error is critically important and first-order approximations rarely work. The new pipeline attempts about 50 different analyses per observation, permuting different photometry aperture sizes, centering methods, and systematic models to find the best according to the standard deviation of normalized residuals and the Akaike and Bayesian Information Criteria. As a demonstration of its ease of use, two undergraduates have recently led papers based on the pipeline. The team now seeks funds for graduate student Patricio Cubillos, who is already trained and working (e.g., Cubillos et al. 2011). He will lead 1-2 secondary eclipse papers per year, based on our recent output. Three undergraduates will handle routine tasks and produce between them about one paper per year. The PI and a programmer are also supported. Our long-term goal is to produce a statistical sample of exoplanet secondary eclipses at wavelengths inaccessible to facilities other than Spitzer. These measure properties of exoplanetary atmospheres and orbits. Each planet is of significant intrinsic interest. In addition, an aggregate plot of planetary brightness vs. equilibrium temperature shows a significant jump in brightness near 2000 K. We will explore this and other results of aggregation, such as why some hot planets do or do not have thermal inversions, and under what circumstances photochemistry is important. There will be three main products from this grant: 1. Secondary eclipse analyses for 11 planets, including assessment of inversions, abundances, and thermal profiles. 2. Aggregate data analyses related to the brightness jump, which planets have thermal inversions and disequilibrium chemistry, and whether stellar metallicity, surface gravity, etc., affect the emitted fluxes. 3. Statistical enhancements to our open-source code for retrieving atmospheric composition and thermal profiles from eclipse data, using the method of Madhusudhan and Seager.

Atmospheric Mining in the Outer Solar System: Resource Capturing, Storage, and Utilization

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Palaszewski, Bryan

2014-01-01

Atmospheric mining in the outer solar system has been investigated as a means of fuel production for high energy propulsion and power. Fusion fuels such as helium 3 and hydrogen can be wrested from the atmospheres of Uranus and Neptune and either returned to Earth or used in-situ for energy production. Helium 3 and hydrogen (deuterium, etc.) were the primary gases of interest with hydrogen being the primary propellant for nuclear thermal solid core and gas core rocket-based atmospheric flight. A series of analyses were undertaken to investigate resource capturing aspects of atmospheric mining in the outer solar system. This included the gas capturing rate for hydrogen helium 4 and helium 3, storage options, and different methods of direct use of the captured gases. Additional supporting analyses were conducted to illuminate vehicle sizing and orbital transportation issues.

Modeling the impact of sea-spray on particle concentrations in a coastal city.

PubMed

Pryor, S C; Barthelmie, R J; Schoof, J T; Binkowski, F S; Delle Monache, L; Stull, R

2008-02-25

With the worlds population becoming increasingly focused on coastal locations there is a need to better understand the interactions between anthropogenic emissions and marine atmospheres. Herein an atmospheric chemistry-transport model is used to assess the impacts of sea-spray chemistry on the particle composition in and downwind of a coastal city--Vancouver, British Columbia. It is shown that the model can reasonably represent the average features of the gas phase and particle climate relative to in situ measurements. It is further demonstrated that reactions in/on sea-spray affect the entire particle ensemble and particularly the size distribution of particle nitrate, but that the importance of these heterogeneous reactions is critically dependent on both the initial vertical profile of sea spray and the sea-spray source functions. The results emphasize the need for improved understanding of sea spray production and dispersion and further that model analyses of air quality in coastal cities conducted without inclusion of sea-spray interactions may yield mis-leading results in terms of emission sensitivities of particle composition and concentrations.

Improving the Long-Term Stability of Atmospheric Surface Deformation Predictions by Mitigating the Effects of Orography Updates in Operational Weather Forecast Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dill, Robert; Bergmann-Wolf, Inga; Thomas, Maik; Dobslaw, Henryk

2016-04-01

The global numerical weather prediction model routinely operated at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is typically updated about two times a year to incorporate the most recent improvements in the numerical scheme, the physical model or the data assimilation procedures into the system for steadily improving daily weather forecasting quality. Even though such changes frequently affect the long-term stability of meteorological quantities, data from the ECMWF deterministic model is often preferred over alternatively available atmospheric re-analyses due to both the availability of the data in near real-time and the substantially higher spatial resolution. However, global surface pressure time-series, which are crucial for the interpretation of geodetic observables, such as Earth rotation, surface deformation, and the Earth's gravity field, are in particular affected by changes in the surface orography of the model associated with every major change in horizontal resolution happened, e.g., in February 2006, January 2010, and May 2015 in case of the ECMWF operational model. In this contribution, we present an algorithm to harmonize surface pressure time-series from the operational ECMWF model by projecting them onto a time-invariant reference topography under consideration of the time-variable atmospheric density structure. The effectiveness of the method will be assessed globally in terms of pressure anomalies. In addition, we will discuss the impact of the method on predictions of crustal deformations based on ECMWF input, which have been recently made available by GFZ Potsdam.

Evaluation of Surface Flux Parameterizations with Long-Term ARM Observations

DOE PAGES

Liu, Gang; Liu, Yangang; Endo, Satoshi

2013-02-01

Surface momentum, sensible heat, and latent heat fluxes are critical for atmospheric processes such as clouds and precipitation, and are parameterized in a variety of models ranging from cloud-resolving models to large-scale weather and climate models. However, direct evaluation of the parameterization schemes for these surface fluxes is rare due to limited observations. This study takes advantage of the long-term observations of surface fluxes collected at the Southern Great Plains site by the Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program to evaluate the six surface flux parameterization schemes commonly used in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and threemore » U.S. general circulation models (GCMs). The unprecedented 7-yr-long measurements by the eddy correlation (EC) and energy balance Bowen ratio (EBBR) methods permit statistical evaluation of all six parameterizations under a variety of stability conditions, diurnal cycles, and seasonal variations. The statistical analyses show that the momentum flux parameterization agrees best with the EC observations, followed by latent heat flux, sensible heat flux, and evaporation ratio/Bowen ratio. The overall performance of the parameterizations depends on atmospheric stability, being best under neutral stratification and deteriorating toward both more stable and more unstable conditions. Further diagnostic analysis reveals that in addition to the parameterization schemes themselves, the discrepancies between observed and parameterized sensible and latent heat fluxes may stem from inadequate use of input variables such as surface temperature, moisture availability, and roughness length. The results demonstrate the need for improving the land surface models and measurements of surface properties, which would permit the evaluation of full land surface models.« less

Development of Automated Objective Meteorological Techniques.

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-11-30

differences are due largely to the nature and spatial distribution of the atmospheric data chosen as input for the model . The data for initial values and...technique. This report fo,-uses on results of theoretical investigations and data analyses performed oy SASC during the period May, 1979 to June, 1980...the sampling period, at a given point in space, the various size particles composing the particle distribution ex- hibit different velocities from each

Mars Exploration Rovers Landing Dispersion Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Knocke, Philip C.; Wawrzyniak, Geoffrey G.; Kennedy, Brian M.; Desai, Prasun N.; Parker, TImothy J.; Golombek, Matthew P.; Duxbury, Thomas C.; Kass, David M.

2004-01-01

Landing dispersion estimates for the Mars Exploration Rover missions were key elements in the site targeting process and in the evaluation of landing risk. This paper addresses the process and results of the landing dispersion analyses performed for both Spirit and Opportunity. The several contributors to landing dispersions (navigation and atmospheric uncertainties, spacecraft modeling, winds, and margins) are discussed, as are the analysis tools used. JPL's MarsLS program, a MATLAB-based landing dispersion visualization and statistical analysis tool, was used to calculate the probability of landing within hazardous areas. By convolving this with the probability of landing within flight system limits (in-spec landing) for each hazard area, a single overall measure of landing risk was calculated for each landing ellipse. In-spec probability contours were also generated, allowing a more synoptic view of site risks, illustrating the sensitivity to changes in landing location, and quantifying the possible consequences of anomalies such as incomplete maneuvers. Data and products required to support these analyses are described, including the landing footprints calculated by NASA Langley's POST program and JPL's AEPL program, cartographically registered base maps and hazard maps, and flight system estimates of in-spec landing probabilities for each hazard terrain type. Various factors encountered during operations, including evolving navigation estimates and changing atmospheric models, are discussed and final landing points are compared with approach estimates.

Large-Eddy Simulation Comparison of Neutral Flow Over a Canopy: Sensitivities to Physical and Numerical Conditions, and Similarity to Other Representations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ouwersloot, H. G.; Moene, A. F.; Attema, J. J.; de Arellano, J. Vilà-Guerau

2017-01-01

The representation of a neutral atmospheric flow over roughness elements simulating a vegetation canopy is compared between two large-eddy simulation models, wind-tunnel data and recently updated empirical flux-gradient relationships. Special attention is devoted to the dynamics in the roughness sublayer above the canopy layer, where turbulence is most intense. By demonstrating that the flow properties are consistent across these different approaches, confidence in the individual independent representations is bolstered. Systematic sensitivity analyses with the Dutch Atmospheric Large-Eddy Simulation model show that the transition in the one-sided plant-area density from the canopy layer to unobstructed air potentially alters the flow in the canopy and roughness sublayer. Anomalously induced fluctuations can be fully suppressed by spreading the transition over four steps. Finer vertical resolutions only serve to reduce the magnitude of these fluctuations, but do not prevent them. To capture the general dynamics of the flow, a resolution of 10 % of the canopy height is found to suffice, while a finer resolution still improves the representation of the turbulent kinetic energy. Finally, quadrant analyses indicate that momentum transport is dominated by the mean velocity components within each quadrant. Consequently, a mass-flux approach can be applied to represent the momentum flux.

Atmospheric Teleconnection over Eurasia Induced by Aerosol Radiative Forcing during Boreal Spring

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, Maeng-Ki; Lau, William K. M.; Chin, Mian; Kim, Kyu-Myong; Sud, Y. C.; Walker, Greg K.

2006-01-01

The direct effects of aerosols on global and regional climate during boreal spring are investigated based on numerical simulations with the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office finite-volume general circulation model (fvGCM) with Microphyics of Clouds with the Relaxed Arakawa Schubert Scheme (McRAS), using aerosol forcing functions derived from the Goddard Ozone Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport model (GOCART). The authors find that anomalous atmospheric heat sources induced by absorbing aerosols (dust and black carbon) excite a planetary-scale teleconnection pattern in sea level pressure, temperature, and geopotential height spanning North Africa through Eurasia to the North Pacific. Surface cooling due to direct effects of aerosols is found in the vicinity and downstream of the aerosol source regions, that is, South Asia, East Asia, and northern and western Africa. Significant atmospheric heating is found in regions with large loading of dust (over northern Africa and the Middle East) and black carbon (over Southeast Asia). Paradoxically, the most pronounced feature in aerosol-induced surface temperature is an east west dipole anomaly with strong cooling over the Caspian Sea and warming over central and northeastern Asia, where aerosol concentrations are low. Analyses of circulation anomalies show that the dipole anomaly is a part of an atmospheric teleconnection pattern driven by atmospheric heating anomalies induced by absorbing aerosols in the source regions, but the influence was conveyed globally through barotropic energy dispersion and sustained by feedback processes associated with the regional circulations. The surface temperature signature associated with the aerosol-induced teleconnection bears striking resemblance to the spatial pattern of observed long-term trend in surface temperature over Eurasia. Additionally, the boreal spring wave train pattern is similar to that reported by Fukutomi et al. associated with the boreal summer precipitation seesaw between eastern and western Siberia. The results of this study raise the possibility that global aerosol forcing during boreal spring may play an important role in spawning atmospheric teleconnections that affect regional and global climates.

Generation of Fine Scale Wind and Wave Climatologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vandenberghe, F. C.; Filipot, J.; Mouche, A.

2013-12-01

A tool to generate 'on demand' large databases of atmospheric parameters at high resolution has been developed for defense applications. The approach takes advantage of the zooming and relocation capabilities of the embedded domains that can be found in regional models like the community Weather Research and Forecast model (WRF). The WRF model is applied to dynamically downscale NNRP, CFSR and ERA40 global analyses and to generate long records, up to 30 years, of hourly gridded data over 200km2 domains at 3km grid increment. To insure accuracy, observational data from the NCAR ADP historical database are used in combination with the Four-Dimensional Data Assimilation (FDDA) techniques to constantly nudge the model analysis toward observations. The atmospheric model is coupled to secondary applications such as the NOAA's Wave Watch III model the Navy's APM Electromagnetic Propagation model, allowing the creation of high-resolution climatologies of surface winds, waves and electromagnetic propagation parameters. The system was applied at several coastal locations of the Mediterranean Sea where SAR wind and wave observations were available during the entire year of 2008. Statistical comparisons between the model output and SAR observations are presented. Issues related to the global input data, and the model drift, as well as the impact of the wind biases on wave simulations will be discussed.

Expansion of the Real-time Sport-land Information System for NOAA/National Weather Service Situational Awareness and Local Modeling Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Case, Jonathan L.

2014-01-01

The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has been running a real-time version of the Land Information System (LIS) since summer 2010 (hereafter, SPoRTLIS). The real-time SPoRT-LIS runs the Noah land surface model (LSM) in an offline capacity apart from a numerical weather prediction model, using input atmospheric and precipitation analyses (i.e., "forcings") to drive the Noah LSM integration at 3-km resolution. Its objectives are to (1) produce local-scale information about the soil state for NOAA/National Weather Service (NWS) situational awareness applications such as drought monitoring and assessing flood potential, and (2) provide land surface initialization fields for local modeling initiatives. The current domain extent has been limited by the input atmospheric analyses that drive the Noah LSM integration within SPoRT-LIS, specifically the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Stage IV precipitation analyses. Due to the nature of the geographical edges of the Stage IV precipitation grid and its limitations in the western U.S., the SPoRT-LIS was originally confined to a domain fully nested within the Stage IV grid, over the southeastern half of the Conterminous United States (CONUS). In order to expand the real-time SPoRT-LIS to a full CONUS domain, alternative precipitation forcing datasets were explored in year-long, offline comparison runs of the Noah LSM. Based on results of these comparison simulations, we chose to implement the radar/gauge-based precipitation analyses from the National Severe Storms Laboratory as a replacement to the Stage IV product. The Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS; formerly known as the National Mosaic and multi-sensor Quantitative precipitation estimate) product has full CONUS coverage at higher-resolution, thereby providing better coverage and greater detail than that of the Stage IV product. This paper will describe the expanded/upgraded SPoRT-LIS, present comparisons between the original and upgraded SPoRT-LIS, and discuss the path forward for future collaboration opportunities with SPoRT partners in the NWS.

Analytic Theory of Titans Schumann Resonance: Constraints on Ionospheric Conductivity and Buried Water Ocean

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Beghin, Christian; Randriamboarison, Orelien; Hamelin, Michel; Karkoschka, Erich; Sotin, Christophe; Whitten, Robert C.; Berthelier, Jean-Jacques; Grard, Rejean; Simoes, Fernando

2013-01-01

This study presents an approximate model for the atypical Schumann resonance in Titan's atmosphere that accounts for the observations of electromagnetic waves and the measurements of atmospheric conductivity performed with the Huygens Atmospheric Structure and Permittivity, Wave and Altimetry (HASI-PWA) instrumentation during the descent of the Huygens Probe through Titan's atmosphere in January 2005. After many years of thorough analyses of the collected data, several arguments enable us to claim that the Extremely Low Frequency (ELF) wave observed at around 36 Hz displays all the characteristics of the second harmonic of a Schumann resonance. On Earth, this phenomenon is well known to be triggered by lightning activity. Given the lack of evidence of any thunderstorm activity on Titan, we proposed in early works a model based on an alternative powering mechanism involving the electric current sheets induced in Titan's ionosphere by the Saturn's magnetospheric plasma flow. The present study is a further step in improving the initial model and corroborating our preliminary assessments. We first develop an analytic theory of the guided modes that appear to be the most suitable for sustaining Schumann resonances in Titan's atmosphere. We then introduce the characteristics of the Huygens electric field measurements in the equations, in order to constrain the physical parameters of the resonating cavity. The latter is assumed to be made of different structures distributed between an upper boundary, presumably made of a succession of thin ionized layers of stratospheric aerosols spread up to 150 km and a lower quasi-perfect conductive surface hidden beneath the non-conductive ground. The inner reflecting boundary is proposed to be a buried water-ammonia ocean lying at a likely depth of 55-80 km below a dielectric icy crust. Such estimate is found to comply with models suggesting that the internal heat could be transferred upwards by thermal conduction of the crust, while convective processes cannot be ruled out.

Drivers of precipitation change: An energetic understanding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richardson, T.; Forster, P.; Andrews, T.

2016-12-01

Future precipitation changes are highly uncertain. Different drivers of anthropogenic climate change can cause very different hydrological responses, which could have significant societal implications. Changes in precipitation are tightly linked to the atmospheric energy budget due to the latent heat released through condensation. Through analysis of the atmospheric energy budget we make significant steps forward in understanding and predicting the precipitation response to different forcings. Here we analyse the response to five targeted forcing scenarios (perturbed CO2, CH4, black carbon, sulphate and solar insolation) across eight climate models participating in the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP). The resulting changes are split into a rapid adjustment component, due to the near-instantaneous changes in the atmospheric energy budget, and a feedback component which scales with surface temperature change. Globally, CO2 and black carbon produce large negative adjustments in precipitation due to the increase in atmospheric absorption. However, over land it is sulphate and solar forcing which produce the largest precipitation adjustments due to changes in horizontal energy transport associated with rapid circulation changes. Globally, the precipitation feedback response is very consistent between forcing scenarios, driven mainly by increased longwave cooling. The feedback response differs significantly over land and sea, with a larger feedback over the oceans. We use the PDRMIP results to construct a simple model for precipitation change over land and sea based on surface temperature change and top of the atmosphere forcing. The simple model matches well with CMIP5 ensemble mean precipitation change for RCP8.5. Simulated changes in land mean precipitation can be estimated well using the rapid adjustment and feedback framework, and understood through simple energy budget arguments. Up until present day the effects of temperature change on land mean precipitation have been entirely masked by sulphate forcing. However, as projected sulphate forcing decreases, and warming continues, the temperature driven increase in land mean precipitation soon dominates.

Does vapor pressure deficit drive the seasonality of δ 13 C of the net land-atmosphere CO 2 exchange across the United States?: The Influence of VPD on δ 13 C of NEE

DOE PAGES

Raczka, B.; Biraud, S. C.; Ehleringer, J. R.; ...

2017-08-10

The seasonal pattern of the carbon isotope content (δ 13C) of atmospheric CO 2 depends on local and nonlocal land-atmosphere exchange and atmospheric transport. Previous studies suggested that the δ13C of the net land-atmosphere CO 2 flux (δsource) varies seasonally as stomatal conductance of plants responds to vapor pressure deficit of air (VPD). We studied the variation of δ source at seven sites across the United States representing forests, grasslands, and an urban center. Using a two-part mixing model, we calculated the seasonal δsource for each site after removing background influence and, when possible, removing δ 13C variation of nonlocalmore » sources. Compared to previous analyses, we found a reduced seasonal (March–September) variation in δ source at the forest sites (0.5‰variation). We did not find a consistent seasonal relationship between VPD and δ source across forest (or other) sites, providing evidence that stomatal response to VPD was not the cause of the global, coherent seasonal pattern in δsource. In contrast to the forest sites, grassland and urban sites had a larger seasonal variation in δ source (5‰) dominated by seasonal transitions in C 3/C 4 grass productivity and in fossil fuel emissions, respectively. Our findings were sensitive to the location used to account for atmospheric background variation within the mixing model method that determined δsource. Special consideration should be given to background location depending on whether the intent is to understand site level dynamics or regional scale impacts of land-atmosphere exchange. The seasonal amplitude in δ 13C of land-atmosphere CO 2 exchange (δ source) varied across land cover types and was not driven by seasonal changes in vapor pressure deficit. The largest seasonal amplitudes of δsource were at grassland and urban sites, driven by changes in C 3/C 4 grass productivity and fossil fuel emissions, respectively. Mixing model approaches may incorrectly calculate δs ource when background atmospheric observations are remote and/or prone to anthropogenic influence.« less

Does vapor pressure deficit drive the seasonality of δ 13 C of the net land-atmosphere CO 2 exchange across the United States?: The Influence of VPD on δ 13 C of NEE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Raczka, B.; Biraud, S. C.; Ehleringer, J. R.

The seasonal pattern of the carbon isotope content (δ 13C) of atmospheric CO 2 depends on local and nonlocal land-atmosphere exchange and atmospheric transport. Previous studies suggested that the δ13C of the net land-atmosphere CO 2 flux (δsource) varies seasonally as stomatal conductance of plants responds to vapor pressure deficit of air (VPD). We studied the variation of δ source at seven sites across the United States representing forests, grasslands, and an urban center. Using a two-part mixing model, we calculated the seasonal δsource for each site after removing background influence and, when possible, removing δ 13C variation of nonlocalmore » sources. Compared to previous analyses, we found a reduced seasonal (March–September) variation in δ source at the forest sites (0.5‰variation). We did not find a consistent seasonal relationship between VPD and δ source across forest (or other) sites, providing evidence that stomatal response to VPD was not the cause of the global, coherent seasonal pattern in δsource. In contrast to the forest sites, grassland and urban sites had a larger seasonal variation in δ source (5‰) dominated by seasonal transitions in C 3/C 4 grass productivity and in fossil fuel emissions, respectively. Our findings were sensitive to the location used to account for atmospheric background variation within the mixing model method that determined δsource. Special consideration should be given to background location depending on whether the intent is to understand site level dynamics or regional scale impacts of land-atmosphere exchange. The seasonal amplitude in δ 13C of land-atmosphere CO 2 exchange (δ source) varied across land cover types and was not driven by seasonal changes in vapor pressure deficit. The largest seasonal amplitudes of δsource were at grassland and urban sites, driven by changes in C 3/C 4 grass productivity and fossil fuel emissions, respectively. Mixing model approaches may incorrectly calculate δs ource when background atmospheric observations are remote and/or prone to anthropogenic influence.« less

Relationships of Upper Tropospheric Water Vapor, Clouds and SST: MLS Observations, ECMWF Analyses and GCM Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Su, Hui; Waliser, Duane E.; Jiang, Jonathan H.; Li, Jui-lin; Read, William G.; Waters, Joe W.; Tompkins, Adrian M.

2006-01-01

The relationships of upper tropospheric water vapor (UTWV), cloud ice and sea surface temperature (SST) are examined in the annual cycles of ECMWF analyses and simulations from 15 atmosphere-ocean coupled models which were contributed to the IPCC AR4. The results are compared with the observed relationships based on UTWV and cloud ice measurements from MLS on Aura. It is shown that the ECMWF analyses produce positive correlations between UTWV, cloud ice and SST, similar to the MLS data. The rate of the increase of cloud ice and UTWV with SST is about 30% larger than that for MLS. For the IPCC simulations, the relationships between UTWV, cloud ice and SST are qualitatively captured. However, the magnitudes of the simulated cloud ice show a considerable disagreement between models, by nearly a factor of 10. The amplitudes of the approximate linear relations between UTWV, cloud ice and SST vary by a factor up to 4.

Modeling biophysical/biogeochemical/ecological/ocean/atmosphere two-way interactions using NCEP CFS/SSiB5/TRIFFID/DAYCENT: challenge and promising

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xue, Y.; Liu, Y.; Cox, P. M.; De Sales, F.; Lee, J.; Marx, L.; Hartman, M. D.; Yang, R.; Parton, W. J.; Qiu, B.; Ek, M. B.

2016-12-01

Evaluations of several dynamic vegetation models' (DVM) performances in the offline experiments and in the CMIP5 simulations suggest that most of the DVMs substantially overestimate leaf area index (LAI) and length of the growing season, which contribute to overestimation in their coupled models' precipitation. These results suggest important deficiencies in today's DVMs but also show the importance of proper ecological processes in the Earth System Modeling. We have developed a water-carbon-energy balance-based ecosystem model (SSiB4/TRIFFID) and verified it with field and satellite measurement at seasonal to decadal and longer scales. In the global offline tests, the model was integrated from 1950 to 2010 driven by observed meteorological forcing. The simulated trend and decadal variabilities in surface ecosystem conditions (e.g., Plant functional types, LAI, GPP), and surface water and energy balances are analyzed; further experiments and analyses are carried to isolate the contribution due to elevated atmospheric carbon concentration, global warming, soil moisture, and climate variability. How nitrogen processes simulated by the DayCent model Climate Forecast System (CFS) model, which has consistently shown improvements in simulated atmospheric & ocean conditions compared with those runs with specified vegetation conditions. In an experiment, two parametrizations that calculate the mean water potential in soil layers, which affect transpiration and plants' mortality, are tested. It shows that these two methods have substantial impact on global decadal variability of precipitation and surface temperature, with even opposite signs over some regions in the worlds. These results show the uncertainty in DVM modeling with significant implication for the future prediction. It is imperative to evaluate DVMs with comprehensive observational data.

A New Handbook for the Development of Space Vehicle Terrestrial Environment Design Requirements.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, Dale L.; Vaughan, William W.

2008-01-01

A new NASA document entitled "Terrestrial Environment (Climatic) Criteria Handbook for Use in Aerospace Vehicle Development (NASA-HDBK-1001A) has been developed. The Handbook provides terrestrial environment information, data bases, models, recommendations, etc. for use in the design, development, trade studies, testing, and mission analyses for space (or launch) .vehicles. This document is organized into fourteen specific natural environment disciplines of which some are winds, atmospheric models, thermal radiation, precipitation-for-icing, cloud cover, atmospheric electricity, geologic hazards, toxic chemical release by propulsion systems, and sea state. Atmospheric phenomena play a significant role in the design and flight of aerospace vehicles and in the integrity of the associated aerospace systems and structures. Environmental design criteria guidelines in this document are based on measurements and observations of atmospheric and climatic phenomena relative to various aerospace development, operational, and vehicle launch locations. The natural environment criteria guidelines data presented in this Handbook were formulated based on discussions with and requests from engineers involved in aerospace vehicle development and operations. Therefore, they represent responses to actual engineering problems and are not just a general compilation of environmental data. The Handbook addresses the basis for the information presented, the interpretations of the terrestrial environment guideline given in the Handbook, and its application to the development of aerospace vehicle design requirements. Specific examples of the Handbook content and associated "lessons lenmed" are given in this paper.

A New Handbook for the Development of Space Vehicle Terrestrial Environment Design Requirements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, Dale L.; Vaughan, William W.

2008-01-01

A new NASA document entitled "Terrestrial Environment (Climatic) Criteria Handbook for Use in Aerospace Vehicle Development (NASA-HDBK-IOO1A) has been developed. The Handbook provides terrestrial environment information, data bases, models, recommendations, etc. for use in the design, development, trade studies, testing, and mission analyses for space (or launch) vehicles. This document is organized into fourteen specific natural environment disciplines of which some are winds, atmospheric models, thermal radiation, precipitation-for-icing, cloud cover, atmospheric electricity, geologic hazards, toxic chemical release by propulsion systems, and sea state. Atmospheric phenomena play a significant role in the design and flight of aerospace vehicles and in the integrity of the associated aerospace systems and structures. Environmental design criteria guidelines in this document are based on measurements and observations of atmospheric and climatic phenomena relative to various aerospace development, operational, and vehicle launch locations. The natural environment criteria guidelines data presented in this Handbook were formulated based on discussions with and requests from engineers involved in aerospace vehicle development and operations. Therefore, they represent responses to actual engineering problems and are not just a general compilation of environmental data. The Handbook addresses the basis for the information presented, the interpretations of the terrestrial environment guideline given in the Handbook, and its application to the development of aerospace vehicle design requirements. Specific examples of the Handbook content and associated "lessons lenmed" are given in this paper.

Quantifying Precipitation Variability and Relative Erosion Rates on Titan Using a GCM and Implications for Observed Geomorphology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faulk, S.; Moon, S.; Mitchell, J.; Lora, J. M.

2016-12-01

Titan's zonal-mean precipitation behavior has been widely investigated using general circulation models (GCMs), but the spatial and temporal variability of rainfall in Titan's active hydrologic cycle is less well understood. We conduct statistical analyses of rainfall, diagnosed from GCM simulations of Titan's atmosphere, to determine storm intensity and frequency. Intense storms of methane have been proposed to be critical for enabling mechanical erosion of Titan's surface, as indicated by extensive observations of dendritic valley networks. Using precipitation outputs from the Titan Atmospheric Model (TAM), a GCM shown to realistically simulate many features of Titan's atmosphere, we quantify the precipitation variability and resulting relative erosion rates within eight separate latitude bins for a variety of initial surface liquid distributions. We find that while the overall wettest regions are indeed the poles, the most intense rainfall generally occurs in the high mid-latitudes, between 45-67.5 degrees, consistent with recent geomorphological observations of alluvial fans concentrated at those latitudes. We also find that precipitation rates necessary for surface erosion, as estimated by Perron et al. (2006) J. Geophys. Res. 111, E11001, frequently occur at all latitudes, with recurrence intervals of less than one Titan year. Such analysis is crucial towards understanding the complex interaction between Titan's atmosphere and surface and defining the influence of precipitation on observed geomorphology.

Assessment of infrasound signals recorded on seismic stations and infrasound arrays in the western United States using ground truth sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Junghyun; Hayward, Chris; Stump, Brian W.

2018-06-01

Ground truth sources in Utah during 2003-2013 are used to assess the contribution of temporal atmospheric conditions to infrasound detection and the predictive capabilities of atmospheric models. Ground truth sources consist of 28 long duration static rocket motor burn tests and 28 impulsive rocket body demolitions. Automated infrasound detections from a hybrid of regional seismometers and infrasound arrays use a combination of short-term time average/long-term time average ratios and spectral analyses. These detections are grouped into station triads using a Delaunay triangulation network and then associated to estimate phase velocity and azimuth to filter signals associated with a particular source location. The resulting range and azimuth distribution from sources to detecting stations varies seasonally and is consistent with predictions based on seasonal atmospheric models. Impulsive signals from rocket body detonations are observed at greater distances (>700 km) than the extended duration signals generated by the rocket burn test (up to 600 km). Infrasound energy attenuation associated with the two source types is quantified as a function of range and azimuth from infrasound amplitude measurements. Ray-tracing results using Ground-to-Space atmospheric specifications are compared to these observations and illustrate the degree to which the time variations in characteristics of the observations can be predicted over a multiple year time period.

A deforestation-induced tipping point for the South American monsoon system.

PubMed

Boers, Niklas; Marwan, Norbert; Barbosa, Henrique M J; Kurths, Jürgen

2017-01-25

The Amazon rainforest has been proposed as a tipping element of the earth system, with the possibility of a dieback of the entire ecosystem due to deforestation only of parts of the rainforest. Possible physical mechanisms behind such a transition are still subject to ongoing debates. Here, we use a specifically designed model to analyse the nonlinear couplings between the Amazon rainforest and the atmospheric moisture transport from the Atlantic to the South American continent. These couplings are associated with a westward cascade of precipitation and evapotranspiration across the Amazon. We investigate impacts of deforestation on the South American monsoonal circulation with particular focus on a previously neglected positive feedback related to condensational latent heating over the rainforest, which strongly enhances atmospheric moisture inflow from the Atlantic. Our results indicate the existence of a tipping point. In our model setup, crossing the tipping point causes precipitation reductions of up to 40% in non-deforested parts of the western Amazon and regions further downstream. The responsible mechanism is the breakdown of the aforementioned feedback, which occurs when deforestation reduces transpiration to a point where the available atmospheric moisture does not suffice anymore to release the latent heat needed to maintain the feedback.

A deforestation-induced tipping point for the South American monsoon system

PubMed Central

Boers, Niklas; Marwan, Norbert; Barbosa, Henrique M. J.; Kurths, Jürgen

2017-01-01

The Amazon rainforest has been proposed as a tipping element of the earth system, with the possibility of a dieback of the entire ecosystem due to deforestation only of parts of the rainforest. Possible physical mechanisms behind such a transition are still subject to ongoing debates. Here, we use a specifically designed model to analyse the nonlinear couplings between the Amazon rainforest and the atmospheric moisture transport from the Atlantic to the South American continent. These couplings are associated with a westward cascade of precipitation and evapotranspiration across the Amazon. We investigate impacts of deforestation on the South American monsoonal circulation with particular focus on a previously neglected positive feedback related to condensational latent heating over the rainforest, which strongly enhances atmospheric moisture inflow from the Atlantic. Our results indicate the existence of a tipping point. In our model setup, crossing the tipping point causes precipitation reductions of up to 40% in non-deforested parts of the western Amazon and regions further downstream. The responsible mechanism is the breakdown of the aforementioned feedback, which occurs when deforestation reduces transpiration to a point where the available atmospheric moisture does not suffice anymore to release the latent heat needed to maintain the feedback. PMID:28120928

Distant Influence of Kuroshio Eddies on North Pacific Weather Patterns?

PubMed Central

Ma, Xiaohui; Chang, Ping; Saravanan, R.; Montuoro, Raffaele; Hsieh, Jen-Shan; Wu, Dexing; Lin, Xiaopei; Wu, Lixin; Jing, Zhao

2015-01-01

High-resolution satellite measurements of surface winds and sea-surface temperature (SST) reveal strong coupling between meso-scale ocean eddies and near-surface atmospheric flow over eddy-rich oceanic regions, such as the Kuroshio and Gulf Stream, highlighting the importance of meso-scale oceanic features in forcing the atmospheric planetary boundary layer (PBL). Here, we present high-resolution regional climate modeling results, supported by observational analyses, demonstrating that meso-scale SST variability, largely confined in the Kuroshio-Oyashio confluence region (KOCR), can further exert a significant distant influence on winter rainfall variability along the U.S. Northern Pacific coast. The presence of meso-scale SST anomalies enhances the diabatic conversion of latent heat energy to transient eddy energy, intensifying winter cyclogenesis via moist baroclinic instability, which in turn leads to an equivalent barotropic downstream anticyclone anomaly with reduced rainfall. The finding points to the potential of improving forecasts of extratropical winter cyclones and storm systems and projections of their response to future climate change, which are known to have major social and economic impacts, by improving the representation of ocean eddy–atmosphere interaction in forecast and climate models. PMID:26635077

A deforestation-induced tipping point for the South American monsoon system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boers, Niklas; Marwan, Norbert; Barbosa, Henrique M. J.; Kurths, Jürgen

2017-01-01

The Amazon rainforest has been proposed as a tipping element of the earth system, with the possibility of a dieback of the entire ecosystem due to deforestation only of parts of the rainforest. Possible physical mechanisms behind such a transition are still subject to ongoing debates. Here, we use a specifically designed model to analyse the nonlinear couplings between the Amazon rainforest and the atmospheric moisture transport from the Atlantic to the South American continent. These couplings are associated with a westward cascade of precipitation and evapotranspiration across the Amazon. We investigate impacts of deforestation on the South American monsoonal circulation with particular focus on a previously neglected positive feedback related to condensational latent heating over the rainforest, which strongly enhances atmospheric moisture inflow from the Atlantic. Our results indicate the existence of a tipping point. In our model setup, crossing the tipping point causes precipitation reductions of up to 40% in non-deforested parts of the western Amazon and regions further downstream. The responsible mechanism is the breakdown of the aforementioned feedback, which occurs when deforestation reduces transpiration to a point where the available atmospheric moisture does not suffice anymore to release the latent heat needed to maintain the feedback.

Bias Correction for Assimilation of Retrieved AIRS Profiles of Temperature and Humidity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Blankenship, Clay; Zavodsky, Brad; Blackwell, William

2014-01-01

Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) is a hyperspectral radiometer aboard NASA's Aqua satellite designed to measure atmospheric profiles of temperature and humidity. AIRS retrievals are assimilated into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model over the North Pacific for some cases involving "atmospheric rivers". These events bring a large flux of water vapor to the west coast of North America and often lead to extreme precipitation in the coastal mountain ranges. An advantage of assimilating retrievals rather than radiances is that information in partly cloudy fields of view can be used. Two different Level 2 AIRS retrieval products are compared: the Version 6 AIRS Science Team standard retrievals and a neural net retrieval from MIT. Before assimilation, a bias correction is applied to adjust each layer of retrieved temperature and humidity so the layer mean values agree with a short-term model climatology. WRF runs assimilating each of the products are compared against each other and against a control run with no assimilation. This paper will describe the bias correction technique and results from forecasts evaluated by validation against a Total Precipitable Water (TPW) product from CIRA and against Global Forecast System (GFS) analyses.

On the Linearly-Balanced Kinetic Energy Spectrum

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lu, Huei,-Iin; Robertson, F. R.

1999-01-01

It is well known that the earth's atmospheric motion can generally be characterized by the two dimensional quasi-geostrophic approximation, in which the constraints on global integrals of kinetic energy, entrophy and potential vorticity play very important roles in redistributing the wave energy among different scales of motion. Assuming the hypothesis of Kolmogrov's local isotropy, derived a -3 power law of the equilibrium two-dimensional kinetic energy spectrum that entails constant vorticity and zero energy flows from the energy-containing wave number up to the viscous cutoff. In his three dimensional quasi-geostrophic theory, showed that the spectrum function of the vertical scale turbulence - expressible in terms of the available potential energy - possesses the same power law as the two dimensional kinetic energy spectrum. As the slope of kinetic energy spectrum in the inertial range is theoretically related to the predictability of the synoptic scales (Lorenz, 1969), many general circulation models includes a horizontal diffusion to provide reasonable kinetic energy spectra, although the actual power law exhibited in the atmospheric general circulation is controversial. Note that in either the atmospheric modeling or the observational analyses, the proper choice of wave number Index to represent the turbulence scale Is the degree of the Legendre polynomial.

Observational evidence of European summer weather patterns predictable from spring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ossó, Albert; Sutton, Rowan; Shaffrey, Len; Dong, Buwen

2018-01-01

Forecasts of summer weather patterns months in advance would be of great value for a wide range of applications. However, seasonal dynamical model forecasts for European summers have very little skill, particularly for rainfall. It has not been clear whether this low skill reflects inherent unpredictability of summer weather or, alternatively, is a consequence of weaknesses in current forecast systems. Here we analyze atmosphere and ocean observations and identify evidence that a specific pattern of summertime atmospheric circulation––the summer East Atlantic (SEA) pattern––is predictable from the previous spring. An index of North Atlantic sea-surface temperatures in March–April can predict the SEA pattern in July–August with a cross-validated correlation skill above 0.6. Our analyses show that the sea-surface temperatures influence atmospheric circulation and the position of the jet stream over the North Atlantic. The SEA pattern has a particularly strong influence on rainfall in the British Isles, which we find can also be predicted months ahead with a significant skill of 0.56. Our results have immediate application to empirical forecasts of summer rainfall for the United Kingdom, Ireland, and northern France and also suggest that current dynamical model forecast systems have large potential for improvement.

Copernicus stratospheric ozone service, 2009-2012: validation, system intercomparison and roles of input data sets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lefever, K.; van der A, R.; Baier, F.; Christophe, Y.; Errera, Q.; Eskes, H.; Flemming, J.; Inness, A.; Jones, L.; Lambert, J.-C.; Langerock, B.; Schultz, M. G.; Stein, O.; Wagner, A.; Chabrillat, S.

2015-03-01

This paper evaluates and discusses the quality of the stratospheric ozone analyses delivered in near real time by the MACC (Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate) project during the 3-year period between September 2009 and September 2012. Ozone analyses produced by four different chemical data assimilation (CDA) systems are examined and compared: the Integrated Forecast System coupled to the Model for OZone And Related chemical Tracers (IFS-MOZART); the Belgian Assimilation System for Chemical ObsErvations (BASCOE); the Synoptic Analysis of Chemical Constituents by Advanced Data Assimilation (SACADA); and the Data Assimilation Model based on Transport Model version 3 (TM3DAM). The assimilated satellite ozone retrievals differed for each system; SACADA and TM3DAM assimilated only total ozone observations, BASCOE assimilated profiles for ozone and some related species, while IFS-MOZART assimilated both types of ozone observations. All analyses deliver total column values that agree well with ground-based observations (biases < 5%) and have a realistic seasonal cycle, except for BASCOE analyses, which underestimate total ozone in the tropics all year long by 7 to 10%, and SACADA analyses, which overestimate total ozone in polar night regions by up to 30%. The validation of the vertical distribution is based on independent observations from ozonesondes and the ACE-FTS (Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment - Fourier Transform Spectrometer) satellite instrument. It cannot be performed with TM3DAM, which is designed only to deliver analyses of total ozone columns. Vertically alternating positive and negative biases are found in the IFS-MOZART analyses as well as an overestimation of 30 to 60% in the polar lower stratosphere during polar ozone depletion events. SACADA underestimates lower stratospheric ozone by up to 50% during these events above the South Pole and overestimates it by approximately the same amount in the tropics. The three-dimensional (3-D) analyses delivered by BASCOE are found to have the best quality among the three systems resolving the vertical dimension, with biases not exceeding 10% all year long, at all stratospheric levels and in all latitude bands, except in the tropical lowermost stratosphere. The northern spring 2011 period is studied in more detail to evaluate the ability of the analyses to represent the exceptional ozone depletion event, which happened above the Arctic in March 2011. Offline sensitivity tests are performed during this month and indicate that the differences between the forward models or the assimilation algorithms are much less important than the characteristics of the assimilated data sets. They also show that IFS-MOZART is able to deliver realistic analyses of ozone both in the troposphere and in the stratosphere, but this requires the assimilation of observations from nadir-looking instruments as well as the assimilation of profiles, which are well resolved vertically and extend into the lowermost stratosphere.

Effects of air-sea coupling over the North Sea and the Baltic Sea on simulated summer precipitation over Central Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ho-Hagemann, Ha Thi Minh; Gröger, Matthias; Rockel, Burkhardt; Zahn, Matthias; Geyer, Beate; Meier, H. E. Markus

2017-12-01

This study introduces a new approach to investigate the potential effects of air-sea coupling on simulated precipitation inland over Central Europe. We present an inter-comparison of two regional climate models (RCMs), namely, the COSMO-CLM (hereafter CCLM) and RCA4 models, which are configured for the EURO-CORDEX domain in the coupled and atmosphere-only modes. Two versions of the CCLM model, namely, 4.8 and 5.0, join the inter-comparison being almost two different models while providing pronouncedly different summer precipitation simulations because of many changes in the dynamics and physics of CCLM in version 5.0. The coupling effect on the prominent summer dry bias over Central Europe is analysed using seasonal (JJA) mean statistics for the 30-year period from 1979 to 2009, with a focus on extreme precipitation under specific weather regimes. The weather regimes are compared between the coupled and uncoupled simulations to better understand the mechanism of the coupling effects. The comparisons of the coupled systems with the atmosphere-only models show that coupling clearly reduces the dry bias over Central Europe for CCLM 4.8, which has a large dry summer bias, but not for CCLM 5.0 and RCA4, which have smaller dry biases. This result implies that if the atmosphere-only model already yields reasonable summer precipitation over Central Europe, not much room for improvement exists that can be caused by the air-sea coupling over the North Sea and the Baltic Sea. However, if the atmosphere-only model shows a pronounced summer dry bias because of a lack of moisture transport from the seas into the region, the considered coupling may create an improved simulation of summer precipitation over Central Europe, such as for CCLM 4.8. For the latter, the benefit of coupling varies over the considered timescales. The precipitation simulations that are generated by the coupled system COSTRICE 4.8 and the atmosphere-only CCLM 4.8 are mostly identical for the summer mean. However, the COSTRICE simulations are generally more accurate than the atmosphere-only CCLM simulations if extreme precipitation is considered, particularly under Northerly Circulation conditions, in which the airflow from the North Atlantic Ocean passes the North Sea in the coupling domain. The air-sea feedback (e.g., wind, evaporation and sea surface temperature) and land-sea interactions are better reproduced with the COSTRICE model system than the atmosphere-only CCLM and lead to an improved simulation of large-scale moisture convergence from the sea to land and, consequently, increased heavy precipitation over Central Europe.

Overview of the National Atmospheric Release Advisory Center's Urban Research and Development Activities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lundquist, J. K.; Sugiyama, G.; Nasstrom, J.

2007-12-01

This presentation describes the tools and services provided by the National Atmospheric Release Advisory Center (NARAC) at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) for modeling the impacts of airborne hazardous materials. NARAC provides atmospheric plume modeling tools and services for chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear airborne hazards. NARAC can simulate downwind effects from a variety of scenarios, including fires, industrial and transportation accidents, radiation dispersal device explosions, hazardous material spills, sprayers, nuclear power plant accidents, and nuclear detonations. NARAC collaborates on radiological dispersion source terms and effects models with Sandia National Laboratories and the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. NARAC was designated the interim provider of capabilities for the Department of Homeland Security's Interagency Modeling and Atmospheric Assessment Center by the Homeland Security Council in April 2004. The NARAC suite of software tools include simple stand-alone, local-scale plume modeling tools for end-user's computers, and Web- and Internet-based software to access advanced modeling tools and expert analyses from the national center at LLNL. Initial automated, 3-D predictions of plume exposure limits and protective action guidelines for emergency responders and managers are available from the center in 5-10 minutes. These can be followed immediately by quality-assured, refined analyses by 24 x 7 on-duty or on-call NARAC staff. NARAC continues to refine calculations using updated on-scene information, including measurements, until all airborne releases have stopped and the hazardous threats are mapped and impacts assessed. Model predictions include the 3-D spatial and time-varying effects of weather, land use, and terrain, on scales from the local to regional to global. Real-time meteorological data and forecasts are provided by redundant communications links to the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), U.S. Navy, and U.S. Air Force, as well as an in-house mesoscale numerical weather prediction model. NARAC provides an easy-to-use Geographical Information System (GIS) for display of plume predictions with affected population counts and detailed maps, and the ability to export plume predictions to other standard GIS capabilities. Data collection and product distribution is provided through a variety of communication methods, including dial-up, satellite, and wired and wireless networks. Ongoing research and development activities will be highlighted. The NARAC scientific support team is developing urban parameterizations for use in a regional dispersion model (see companion paper by Delle Monache). Modifications to the numerical weather prediction model WRF to account for characteristics of urban dynamics are also in progress, as is boundary-layer turbulence model development for simulations with resolutions greater than 1km. The NARAC building-resolving computational fluid dynamics capability, FEM3MP, enjoys ongoing development activities such as the expansion of its ability to model releases of dense gases. Other research activities include sensor-data fusion, such as the reconstruction of unknown source terms from sparse and disparate observations. This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by the University of California, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under contract No. W-7405-Eng-48. The Department of Homeland Security sponsored the production of this material under the Department of Energy contract for the management and operation of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. UCRL-PROC-234355

Drift dynamics in a coupled model initialized for decadal forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanchez-Gomez, Emilia; Cassou, Christophe; Ruprich-Robert, Yohan; Fernandez, Elodie; Terray, Laurent

2016-03-01

Drifts are always present in models when initialized from observed conditions because of intrinsic model errors; those potentially affect any type of climate predictions based on numerical experiments. Model drifts are usually removed through more or less sophisticated techniques for skill assessment, but they are rarely analysed. In this study, we provide a detailed physical and dynamical description of the drifts in the CNRM-CM5 coupled model using a set of decadal retrospective forecasts produced within CMIP5. The scope of the paper is to give some physical insights and lines of approach to, on one hand, implement more appropriate techniques of initialisation that minimize the drift in forecast mode, and on the other hand, eventually reduce the systematic biases of the models. We first document a novel protocol for ocean initialization adopted by the CNRM-CERFACS group for forecasting purpose in CMIP5. Initial states for starting dates of the predictions are obtained from a preliminary integration of the coupled model where full-field ocean surface temperature and salinity are restored everywhere to observations through flux derivative terms and full-field subsurface fields (below the prognostic ocean mixed layer) are nudged towards NEMOVAR reanalyses. Nudging is applied only outside the 15°S-15°N band allowing for dynamical balance between the depth and tilt of the tropical thermocline and the model intrinsic biased wind. A sensitivity experiment to the latitudinal extension of no-nudging zone (1°S-1°N instead of 15°, hereafter referred to as NOEQ) has been carried out. In this paper, we concentrate our analyses on two specific regions: the tropical Pacific and the North Atlantic basins. In the Pacific, we show that the first year of the forecasts is characterized by a quasi-systematic excitation of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) warm events whatever the starting dates. This, through ocean-to-atmosphere heat transfer materialized by diabatic heating, can be viewed for the coupled model as an efficient way to rapidly adjust to its own biased climate mean state. Weak cold ENSO events tend to occur the second year of the forecast due to the so-called discharge-recharge mechanism while the spurious oscillatory behavior is progressively damped. The latter mechanism is much more pronounced in retrospective forecasts initialized from the NOEQ configuration for which the ENSO flip-flop is still detectable at leadtime 4 year. Associated atmospheric teleconnections interfere worldwide with regional drifts, especially in the North Pacific and more remotely in the North Atlantic. In the latter basin, the drift can be interpreted as the model response to intrinsic atmospheric circulation biases found in the stand-alone atmosphere component of the model, which project onto the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation. A fast adjustment (up to ~5-year leadtime) occurs leading to a rapid slackening of both the vertical (Atlantic meridional overturning circulation) and horizontal circulations, especially in the subpolar gyre. Slower adjustment of the entire water masses distribution in the North Atlantic then takes over involving several mechanisms. We show that a weak feedback is locally present between the atmospheric circulation and the ocean drift that controls the timescale of the setting of the coupled model biases.

Atmospheric Mining in the Outer Solar System: Resource Capturing, Storage, and Utilization

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Palaszewski, Bryan

2012-01-01

Atmospheric mining in the outer solar system has been investigated as a means of fuel production for high energy propulsion and power. Fusion fuels such as Helium 3 (3He) and hydrogen can be wrested from the atmospheres of Uranus and Neptune and either returned to Earth or used in-situ for energy production. Helium 3 and hydrogen (deuterium, etc.) were the primary gases of interest with hydrogen being the primary propellant for nuclear thermal solid core and gas core rocket-based atmospheric flight. A series of analyses were undertaken to investigate resource capturing aspects of atmospheric mining in the outer solar system. This included the gas capturing rate for hydrogen helium 4 and helium 3, storage options, and different methods of direct use of the captured gases. Additional supporting analyses were conducted to illuminate vehicle sizing and orbital transportation issues.

RELATIONS BETWEEN LIGHTNING DISCHARGES AND DIFFERENT TYPES OF MUSICAL ATMOSPHERICS,

DTIC Science & Technology

Recording cathode-ray oscillographs were used for the analysis of the lightning discharges whose relations to musical atmospherics were investigated...of the lightning discharges investigated. Through comparative harmonic analyses it was shown that lightning discharges producing musical atmospherics...followed by multiple whistlers. An investigation was made of correlations between lightning discharges and musical atmospherics of unusual and irregular

Data for polar-regions research

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jenne, R.L.

1992-03-01

Datasets available for polar research on global change topics are summarized. Emphasis is given to data that define the large, including rawinsonde data, surface meteorological observations, cloud drift winds, atmospheric analyses, sea ice, planetary radiation, and ocean forcing. Plans are discussed for making improved atmospheric analyses, using existing data. The use of CD-ROMs and DAT technologies for data distribution is discussed and selected CD-ROMs are listed.

Diabatic Initialization of Mesoscale Models in the Southeastern United States: Can 0 to 12h Warm Season QPF be Improved?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lapenta, William M.; Bradshaw, Tom; Burks, Jason; Darden, Chris; Dembek, Scott

2003-01-01

It is well known that numerical warm season quantitative precipitation forecasts lack significant skill for numerous reasons. Some are related to the model--it may lack physical processes required to realistically simulate convection or the numerical algorithms and dynamics employed may not be adequate. Others are related to initialization-mesoscale features play an important role in convective initialization and atmospheric observation systems are incapable of properly depicting the three-dimensional stability structure at the mesoscale. The purpose of this study is to determine if a mesoscale model initialized with a diabatic initialization scheme can improve short-term (0 to 12h) warm season quantitative precipitation forecasts in the Southeastern United States. The Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) developed at the Forecast System Laboratory is used to diabatically initialize the Pennsylvania State University/National center for Atmospheric Research (PSUNCAR) Mesoscale Model version 5 (MM5). The SPORT Center runs LAPS operationally on an hourly cycle to produce analyses on a 15 km covering the eastern 2/3 of the United States. The 20 km National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Rapid Update Cycle analyses are used for the background fields. Standard observational data are acquired from MADIS with GOES/CRAFT Nexrad data acquired from in-house feeds. The MM5 is configured on a 140 x 140 12 km grid centered on Huntsville Alabama. Preliminary results indicate that MM5 runs initialized with LAPS produce improved 6 and 12h QPF threat scores compared with those initialized with the NCEP RUC.

Correlations between the modelled potato crop yield and the general atmospheric circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sepp, Mait; Saue, Triin

2012-07-01

Biology-related indicators do not usually depend on just one meteorological element but on a combination of several weather indicators. One way to establish such integral indicators is to classify the general atmospheric circulation into a small number of circulation types. The aim of present study is to analyse connections between general atmospheric circulation and potato crop yield in Estonia. Meteorologically possible yield (MPY), calculated by the model POMOD, is used to characterise potato crop yield. Data of three meteorological stations and the biological parameters of two potato sorts were applied to the model, and 73 different classifications of atmospheric circulation from catalogue 1.2 of COST 733, domain 05 are used to qualify circulation conditions. Correlation analysis showed that there is at least one circulation type in each of the classifications with at least one statistically significant (99%) correlation with potato crop yield, whether in Kuressaare, Tallinn or Tartu. However, no classifications with circulation types correlating with MPY in all three stations at the same time were revealed. Circulation types inducing a decrease in the potato crop yield are more clearly represented. Clear differences occurred between the observed geographical locations as well as between the seasons: derived from the number of significant circulation types, summer and Kuressaare stand out. Of potato varieties, late 'Anti' is more influenced by circulation. Analysis of MSLP maps of circulation types revealed that the seaside stations (Tallinn, Kuressaare) suffer from negative effects of anti-cyclonic conditions (drought), while Tartu suffers from the cyclonic activity (excessive water).

A Fast Infrared Radiative Transfer Model for Overlapping Clouds

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Niu, Jianguo; Yang, Ping; Huang, Huang-Lung; Davies, James E.; Li, Jun; Baum, Bryan A.; Hu, Yong X.

2006-01-01

A fast infrared radiative transfer model (FIRTM2) appropriate for application to both single-layered and overlapping cloud situations is developed for simulating the outgoing infrared spectral radiance at the top of the atmosphere (TOA). In FIRTM2 a pre-computed library of cloud reflectance and transmittance values is employed to account for one or two cloud layers, whereas the background atmospheric optical thickness due to gaseous absorption can be computed from a clear-sky radiative transfer model. FIRTM2 is applicable to three atmospheric conditions: 1) clear-sky, 2) single-layered ice or water cloud, and 3) two simultaneous cloud layers in a column (e.g., ice cloud overlying water cloud). Moreover, FIRTM2 outputs the derivatives (i.e., Jacobians) of the TOA brightness temperature with respect to cloud optical thickness and effective particle size. Sensitivity analyses have been carried out to assess the performance of FIRTM2 for two spectral regions, namely the longwave (LW) band (587.3 - 1179.5/cm) and the short-to-medium wave (SMW) band (1180.1 - 2228.9/cm). The assessment is carried out in terms of brightness temperature differences (BTD) between FIRTM2 and the well-known discrete ordinates radiative transfer model (DISORT), henceforth referred to as BTD (F-D). The BTD (F-D) values for single-layered clouds are generally less than 0.8 K. For the case of two cloud layers (specifically ice cloud over water cloud), the BTD(F-D) values are also generally less than 0.8 K except for the SMW band for the case of a very high altitude (>15 km) cloud comprised of small ice particles. Note that for clear-sky atmospheres, FIRTM2 reduces to the clear-sky radiative transfer model that is incorporated into FIRTM2, and the errors in this case are essentially those of the clear-sky radiative transfer model.

Spectral Behavior of a Linearized Land-Atmosphere Model: Applications to Hydrometeorology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gentine, P.; Entekhabi, D.; Polcher, J.

2008-12-01

The present study develops an improved version of the linearized land-atmosphere model first introduced by Lettau (1951). This model is used to investigate the spectral response of land-surface variables to a daily forcing of incoming radiation at the land-surface. An analytical solution of the problem is found in the form of temporal Fourier series and gives the atmospheric boundary-layer and soil profiles of state variables (potential temperature, specific humidity, sensible and latent heat fluxes). Moreover the spectral dependency of surface variables is expressed as function of land-surface parameters (friction velocity, vegetation height, aerodynamic resistance, stomatal conductance). This original approach has several advantages: First, the model only requires little data to work and perform well: only time series of incoming radiation at the land-surface, mean specific humidity and temperature at any given height are required. These inputs being widely available over the globe, the model can easily be run and tested under various conditions. The model will also help analysing the diurnal shape and frequency dependency of surface variables and soil-ABL profiles. In particular, a strong emphasis is being placed on the explanation and prediction of Evaporative Fraction (EF) and Bowen Ratio diurnal shapes. EF is shown to remain a diurnal constant under restricting conditions: fair and dry weather, with strong solar radiation and no clouds. Moreover, the EF pseudo-constancy value is found and given as function of surface parameters, such as aerodynamic resistance and stomatal conductance. Then, application of the model for the conception of remote-sensing tools, according to the temporal resolution of the sensor, will also be discussed. Finally, possible extensions and improvement of the model will be discussed.

Multi-model comparison of the volcanic sulfate deposition from the 1815 eruption of Mt. Tambora

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marshall, Lauren; Schmidt, Anja; Toohey, Matthew; Carslaw, Ken S.; Mann, Graham W.; Sigl, Michael; Khodri, Myriam; Timmreck, Claudia; Zanchettin, Davide; Ball, William T.; Bekki, Slimane; Brooke, James S. A.; Dhomse, Sandip; Johnson, Colin; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; LeGrande, Allegra N.; Mills, Michael J.; Niemeier, Ulrike; Pope, James O.; Poulain, Virginie; Robock, Alan; Rozanov, Eugene; Stenke, Andrea; Sukhodolov, Timofei; Tilmes, Simone; Tsigaridis, Kostas; Tummon, Fiona

2018-02-01

The eruption of Mt. Tambora in 1815 was the largest volcanic eruption of the past 500 years. The eruption had significant climatic impacts, leading to the 1816 year without a summer, and remains a valuable event from which to understand the climatic effects of large stratospheric volcanic sulfur dioxide injections. The eruption also resulted in one of the strongest and most easily identifiable volcanic sulfate signals in polar ice cores, which are widely used to reconstruct the timing and atmospheric sulfate loading of past eruptions. As part of the Model Intercomparison Project on the climatic response to Volcanic forcing (VolMIP), five state-of-the-art global aerosol models simulated this eruption. We analyse both simulated background (no Tambora) and volcanic (with Tambora) sulfate deposition to polar regions and compare to ice core records. The models simulate overall similar patterns of background sulfate deposition, although there are differences in regional details and magnitude. However, the volcanic sulfate deposition varies considerably between the models with differences in timing, spatial pattern and magnitude. Mean simulated deposited sulfate on Antarctica ranges from 19 to 264 kg km-2 and on Greenland from 31 to 194 kg km-2, as compared to the mean ice-core-derived estimates of roughly 50 kg km-2 for both Greenland and Antarctica. The ratio of the hemispheric atmospheric sulfate aerosol burden after the eruption to the average ice sheet deposited sulfate varies between models by up to a factor of 15. Sources of this inter-model variability include differences in both the formation and the transport of sulfate aerosol. Our results suggest that deriving relationships between sulfate deposited on ice sheets and atmospheric sulfate burdens from model simulations may be associated with greater uncertainties than previously thought.

The concurrence of atmospheric rivers and explosive cyclogenesis in the North Atlantic and North Pacific basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eiras-Barca, Jorge; Ramos, Alexandre M.; Pinto, Joaquim G.; Trigo, Ricardo M.; Liberato, Margarida L. R.; Miguez-Macho, Gonzalo

2018-01-01

The explosive cyclogenesis of extratropical cyclones and the occurrence of atmospheric rivers are characteristic features of a baroclinic atmosphere, and are both closely related to extreme hydrometeorological events in the mid-latitudes, particularly on coastal areas on the western side of the continents. The potential role of atmospheric rivers in the explosive cyclone deepening has been previously analysed for selected case studies, but a general assessment from the climatological perspective is still missing. Using ERA-Interim reanalysis data for 1979-2011, we analyse the concurrence of atmospheric rivers and explosive cyclogenesis over the North Atlantic and North Pacific basins for the extended winter months (ONDJFM). Atmospheric rivers are identified for almost 80 % of explosive deepening cyclones. For non-explosive cyclones, atmospheric rivers are found only in roughly 40 % of the cases. The analysis of the time evolution of the high values of water vapour flux associated with the atmospheric river during the cyclone development phase leads us to hypothesize that the identified relationship is the fingerprint of a mechanism that raises the odds of an explosive cyclogenesis occurrence and not merely a statistical relationship. These new insights on the relationship between explosive cyclones and atmospheric rivers may be helpful to a better understanding of the associated high-impact weather events.

Atmospheric Mining in the Outer Solar System: Resource Capturing, Exploration, and Exploitation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Palaszewski, Bryan

2015-01-01

Atmospheric mining in the outer solar system (AMOSS) has been investigated as a means of fuel production for high-energy propulsion and power. Fusion fuels such as helium 3 (He-3) and hydrogen can be wrested from the atmospheres of Uranus and Neptune and either returned to Earth or used in-situ for energy production. 3He and hydrogen (deuterium, etc.) were the primary gases of interest, with hydrogen being the primary propellant for nuclear thermal solid core and gas core rocket-based atmospheric flight. A series of analyses were undertaken to investigate resource capturing aspects of AMOSS. These analyses included the gas capturing rate, storage options, and different methods of direct use of the captured gases. Additional supporting analyses were conducted to illuminate vehicle sizing and orbital transportation issues. While capturing 3He, large amounts of hydrogen and helium 4 (He-4) are produced. With these two additional gases, the potential exists for fueling small and large fleets of additional exploration and exploitation vehicles. Additional aerospacecraft or other aerial vehicles (UAVs, balloons, rockets, etc.) could fly through the outer-planet atmosphere to investigate cloud formation dynamics, global weather, localized storms or other disturbances, wind speeds, the poles, and so forth. Deep-diving aircraft (built with the strength to withstand many atmospheres of pressure) powered by the excess hydrogen or 4He may be designed to probe the higher density regions of the gas giants.

A statistical model to predict total column ozone in Peninsular Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tan, K. C.; Lim, H. S.; Mat Jafri, M. Z.

2016-03-01

This study aims to predict monthly columnar ozone in Peninsular Malaysia based on concentrations of several atmospheric gases. Data pertaining to five atmospheric gases (CO2, O3, CH4, NO2, and H2O vapor) were retrieved by satellite scanning imaging absorption spectrometry for atmospheric chartography from 2003 to 2008 and used to develop a model to predict columnar ozone in Peninsular Malaysia. Analyses of the northeast monsoon (NEM) and the southwest monsoon (SWM) seasons were conducted separately. Based on the Pearson correlation matrices, columnar ozone was negatively correlated with H2O vapor but positively correlated with CO2 and NO2 during both the NEM and SWM seasons from 2003 to 2008. This result was expected because NO2 is a precursor of ozone. Therefore, an increase in columnar ozone concentration is associated with an increase in NO2 but a decrease in H2O vapor. In the NEM season, columnar ozone was negatively correlated with H2O (-0.847), NO2 (0.754), and CO2 (0.477); columnar ozone was also negatively but weakly correlated with CH4 (-0.035). In the SWM season, columnar ozone was highly positively correlated with NO2 (0.855), CO2 (0.572), and CH4 (0.321) and also highly negatively correlated with H2O (-0.832). Both multiple regression and principal component analyses were used to predict the columnar ozone value in Peninsular Malaysia. We obtained the best-fitting regression equations for the columnar ozone data using four independent variables. Our results show approximately the same R value (≈ 0.83) for both the NEM and SWM seasons.

Hot HB Stars in Globular Clusters: Physical Parameters and Consequences for Theory. VI; The Second Parameter Pair M 3 and M 13

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moehler, S.; Landsman, W. B.; Sweigart, A. V.; Grundahl, F.

2003-01-01

We present the results of spectroscopic analyses of hot horizontal branch (HB) stars in M 13 and M 3, which form a famous "second parameter" pair. F rom the spectra and Stromgren photometry we derived - for the first time in M 13 - atmospheric parameters (effective temperature and surface gravity). For stars with Stromgren temperatures between 10,000 and 12,000 K we found excellent agreement between the atmospheric parameters derived from Stromgren photometry and those derived from Balmer line profile fits. However, for cooler stars there is a disagreement in the parameters derived by the two methods, for which we have no satisfactory explanation. Stars hotter than 12,000 K show evidence for helium depletion and iron enrichment, both in M 3 and M 13. Accounting for the iron enrichment substantially improves the agreement with canonical evolutionary models, although the derived gravities and masses are still somewhat too low. This remaining discrepancy may be an indication that scaled-solar metal-rich model atmospheres do not adequately represent the highly non-solar abundance ratios found in blue HB stars affected by diffusion. We discuss the effects of an enhancement in the envelope helium abundance on the atmospheric parameters of the blue HB stars, as might be caused by deep mixing on the red giant branch or primordial pollution from an earlier generation of intermediate mass asymptotic giant branch stars. Key words. Stars: atmospheres - Stars: evolution - Stars: horizontal branch - Globular clusters: individual: M 3 - Globular clusters: individual: M 13

A Numerical Study of Atmospheric Perturbations Induced by Heat From a Wildland Fire: Sensitivity to Vertical Canopy Structure and Heat Source Strength

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kiefer, Michael T.; Zhong, Shiyuan; Heilman, Warren E.; Charney, Joseph J.; Bian, Xindi

2018-03-01

An improved understanding of atmospheric perturbations within and above a forest during a wildland fire has relevance to many aspects of wildland fires including fire spread, smoke transport and dispersion, and tree mortality. In this study, the ARPS-CANOPY model, a version of the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) model with a canopy parameterization, is utilized in a series of idealized numerical experiments to investigate the influence of vertical canopy structure on the atmospheric response to a stationary sensible heat flux at the ground ("fire heat flux"), broadly consistent in magnitude with the sensible heat flux from a low-intensity surface fire. Five vertical canopy structures are combined with five fire heat flux magnitudes to yield a matrix of 25 simulations. Analyses of the fire-heat-flux-perturbed u component of the wind, vertical velocity, kinetic energy, and temperature show that the spatial pattern and magnitude of the perturbations are sensitive to vertical canopy structure. Both vertical velocity and kinetic energy exhibit an increasing trend with increasing fire heat flux that is stronger for cases with some amount of overstory vegetation than cases with exclusively understory vegetation. A weaker trend in cases with exclusively understory vegetation indicates a damping of the atmospheric response to the sensible heat from a surface fire when vegetation is most concentrated near the surface. More generally, the results presented in this study suggest that canopy morphology should be considered when applying the results of a fire-atmosphere interaction study conducted in one type of forest to other forests with different canopy structures.

The Net Exchange Between Terrestrial Ecosystems and the Atmosphere as a Result of Changes in Land Use

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Houghton, R. A.

1998-01-01

The general purpose of this research was to improve and update (to 1990) estimates of the net flux of carbon between the world's terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere from changes in land use (e.g., deforestation and reforestation). The estimates are important for understanding the global carbon cycle, and for predicting future concentrations of atmospheric CO2 that will result from emissions. The emphasis of the first year's research was on the northern temperate zone and boreal forests, where the greatest discrepancy exists between estimates of flux. Forest inventories suggest net sinks of 0.6 PgC/yr; inversion analyses based on atmospheric data and models suggest much larger sinks 2-3.6 PgC/yr (e.g., Tans et al. 1990, Ciais et al. 1995). The work carried out with this grant calculated the flux attributable to changes in land use. The estimated flux was somewhat smaller than the flux calculated from inventory data suggesting that environmental changes have led to a small accumulation of carbon in forests that exceeds the accumulation expected from past rates of harvest. Two publications have described these results (Houghton 1996, 1998). The large difference between these estimates and those obtained with atmospheric data and models remains unexplained. The recent estimate of a 1.7 PgC/yr sink in North America, alone (Fan et al. 1998), is particularly difficult to explain. That part of the sink attributable to land-use change, however, is defined as a result of this grant.

Atmospheric nitrogen deposition to the northwestern Pacific: seasonal variation and source attribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Y.; Zhang, L.; Pan, Y.; Wang, Y.; Paulot, F.; Henze, D. K.

2015-09-01

Rapid Asian industrialization has led to increased downwind atmospheric nitrogen deposition threatening the marine environment. We present an analysis of the sources and processes controlling atmospheric nitrogen deposition to the northwestern Pacific, using the GEOS-Chem global chemistry model and its adjoint model at 1/2° × 2/3° horizontal resolution over East Asia and its adjacent oceans. We focus our analyses on the marginal seas: the Yellow Sea and the South China Sea. Asian nitrogen emissions in the model are 28.6 Tg N a-1 as NH3 and 15.7 Tg N a-1 as NOx. China has the largest sources with 12.8 Tg N a-1 as NH3 and 7.9 Tg N a-1 as NOx; the high-NH3 emissions reflect its intensive agricultural activities. We find Asian NH3 emissions are a factor of 3 higher in summer than winter. The model simulation for 2008-2010 is evaluated with NH3 and NO2 column observations from satellite instruments, and wet deposition flux measurements from surface monitoring sites. Simulated atmospheric nitrogen deposition to the northwestern Pacific ranges 0.8-20 kg N ha-1 a-1, decreasing rapidly downwind of the Asian continent. Deposition fluxes average 11.9 kg N ha-1 a-1 (5.0 as reduced nitrogen NHx and 6.9 as oxidized nitrogen NOy) to the Yellow Sea, and 5.6 kg N ha-1 a-1 (2.5 as NHx and 3.1 as NOy) to the South China Sea. Nitrogen sources over the ocean (ship NOx and oceanic NH3) have little contribution to deposition over the Yellow Sea, about 7 % over the South China Sea, and become important (greater than 30 %) further downwind. We find that the seasonality of nitrogen deposition to the northwestern Pacific is determined by variations in meteorology largely controlled by the East Asian monsoon and in nitrogen emissions. The model adjoint further estimates that nitrogen deposition to the Yellow Sea originates from sources over China (92 % contribution) and the Korean peninsula (7 %), and by sectors from fertilizer use (24 %), power plants (22 %), and transportation (18 %). Deposition to the South China Sea shows source contribution from mainland China (66 %), Taiwan (20 %), and the rest (14 %) from the southeast Asian countries and oceanic NH3 emissions. The adjoint analyses also indicate that reducing Asian NH3 emissions would increase NOy dry deposition to the Yellow Sea (28 % offset annually), limiting the effectiveness of NH3 emission controls on reducing nitrogen deposition to the Yellow Sea.

Atmospheric nitrogen deposition to the northwestern Pacific: seasonal variation and source attribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Yuanhong; Zhang, Lin; Pan, Yuepeng; Wang, Yuesi; Paulot, Fabien; Henze, Daven

2016-04-01

Rapid Asian industrialization has lead to increased atmospheric nitrogen deposition downwind threatening the marine environment. We present an analysis of the sources and processes controlling atmospheric nitrogen deposition to the northwestern Pacific, using the GEOS-Chem global chemistry model and its adjoint model at 1/2°× 2/3° horizontal resolution over the East Asia and its adjacent oceans. We focus our analyses on the marginal seas: the Yellow Sea and the South China Sea. Asian nitrogen emissions in the model are 28.6 Tg N a-1 as NH3 and 15.7 Tg N a-1 as NOx. China has the largest sources with 12.8 Tg N a-1 as NH3 and 7.9 Tg N a-1 as NOx; the much higher NH3 emissions reflect its intensive agricultural activities. We improve the seasonality of Asian NH3 emissions; emissions are a factor of 3 higher in summer than winter. The model simulation for 2008-2010 is evaluated with NH3 and NO2 column observations from satellite instruments, and wet deposition flux measurements from surface monitoring sites. Simulated atmospheric nitrogen deposition to the northwestern Pacific ranges 0.8-20 kg N ha-1 a-1, decreasing rapidly downwind the Asian continent. Deposition fluxes average 11.9 kg N ha-1 a-1 (5.0 as reduced nitrogen NHx and 6.9 as oxidized nitrogen NOy) to the Yellow Sea, and 5.6 kg N ha-1 a-1 (2.5 as NHx and 3.1 as NOy) to the South China Sea. Nitrogen sources over the ocean (ship NOx and oceanic NH3) have little contribution to deposition over the Yellow Sea, about 7% over the South China Sea, and become important (greater than 30%) further downwind. We find that the seasonality of nitrogen deposition to the northwestern Pacific is determined by variations in meteorology largely controlled by the East Asian Monsoon and in nitrogen emissions. The model adjoint further points out that nitrogen deposition to the Yellow Sea originates from sources over China (92% contribution) and the Korean peninsula (7%), and by sectors from fertilizer use (24%), power plants (22%), and transportation (18%). Deposition to the South China Sea shows source contribution from Mainland China (64%), Taiwan (21%), and the rest 15% from the Southeast Asian countries and oceanic NH3 emissions. The adjoint analyses also indicate that reducing Asian NH3 emissions would increase NOy dry deposition to the Yellow Sea (28% offset annually), limiting the effectiveness of NH3 emission controls.

Three-model ensemble wind prediction in southern Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Torcasio, Rosa Claudia; Federico, Stefano; Calidonna, Claudia Roberta; Avolio, Elenio; Drofa, Oxana; Landi, Tony Christian; Malguzzi, Piero; Buzzi, Andrea; Bonasoni, Paolo

2016-03-01

Quality of wind prediction is of great importance since a good wind forecast allows the prediction of available wind power, improving the penetration of renewable energies into the energy market. Here, a 1-year (1 December 2012 to 30 November 2013) three-model ensemble (TME) experiment for wind prediction is considered. The models employed, run operationally at National Research Council - Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (CNR-ISAC), are RAMS (Regional Atmospheric Modelling System), BOLAM (BOlogna Limited Area Model), and MOLOCH (MOdello LOCale in H coordinates). The area considered for the study is southern Italy and the measurements used for the forecast verification are those of the GTS (Global Telecommunication System). Comparison with observations is made every 3 h up to 48 h of forecast lead time. Results show that the three-model ensemble outperforms the forecast of each individual model. The RMSE improvement compared to the best model is between 22 and 30 %, depending on the season. It is also shown that the three-model ensemble outperforms the IFS (Integrated Forecasting System) of the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast) for the surface wind forecasts. Notably, the three-model ensemble forecast performs better than each unbiased model, showing the added value of the ensemble technique. Finally, the sensitivity of the three-model ensemble RMSE to the length of the training period is analysed.

Harmattan, Saharan heat low, and West African monsoon circulation: modulations on the Saharan dust outflow towards the North Atlantic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schepanski, Kerstin; Heinold, Bernd; Tegen, Ina

2017-09-01

The outflow of dust from the northern African continent towards the North Atlantic is stimulated by the atmospheric circulation over North Africa, which modulates the spatio-temporal distribution of dust source activation and consequently the entrainment of mineral dust into the boundary layer, as well as the transport of dust out of the source regions. The atmospheric circulation over the North African dust source regions, predominantly the Sahara and the Sahel, is characterized by three major circulation regimes: (1) the harmattan (trade winds), (2) the Saharan heat low (SHL), and (3) the West African monsoon circulation. The strength of the individual regimes controls the Saharan dust outflow by affecting the spatio-temporal distribution of dust emission, transport pathways, and deposition fluxes.This study aims at investigating the atmospheric circulation pattern over North Africa with regard to its role favouring dust emission and dust export towards the tropical North Atlantic. The focus of the study is on summer 2013 (June to August), during which the SALTRACE (Saharan Aerosol Long-range TRansport and Aerosol-Cloud interaction Experiment) field campaign also took place. It involves satellite observations by the Spinning Enhanced Visible and InfraRed Imager (SEVIRI) flying on board the geostationary Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) satellite, which are analysed and used to infer a data set of active dust sources. The spatio-temporal distribution of dust source activation frequencies (DSAFs) allows for linking the diurnal cycle of dust source activations to dominant meteorological controls on dust emission. In summer, Saharan dust source activations clearly differ from dust source activations over the Sahel regarding the time of day when dust emission begins. The Sahara is dominated by morning dust source activations predominantly driven by the breakdown of the nocturnal low-level jet. In contrast, dust source activations in the Sahel are predominantly activated during the second half of the day, when downdrafts associated with deep moist convection are the major atmospheric driver. Complementary to the satellite-based analysis on dust source activations and implications from their diurnal cycle, simulations on atmosphere and dust life cycle were performed using the mesoscale atmosphere-dust model system COSMO-MUSCAT (COSMO: COnsortium for Small-scale MOdelling; MUSCAT: MUltiScale Chemistry Aerosol Transport Model). Fields from this simulation were analysed regarding the variability of the harmattan, the Saharan heat low, and the monsoon circulation as well as their impact on the variability of the Saharan dust outflow towards the North Atlantic. This study illustrates the complexity of the interaction among the three major circulation regimes and their modulation of the North African dust outflow. Enhanced westward dust fluxes frequently appear following a phase characterized by a deep SHL. Ultimately, findings from this study contribute to the quantification of the interannual variability of the atmospheric dust burden.

Photosynthesis sensitivity to climate change in land surface models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manrique-Sunen, Andrea; Black, Emily; Verhoef, Anne; Balsamo, Gianpaolo

2016-04-01

Accurate representation of vegetation processes within land surface models is key to reproducing surface carbon, water and energy fluxes. Photosynthesis determines the amount of CO2 fixated by plants as well as the water lost in transpiration through the stomata. Photosynthesis is calculated in land surface models using empirical equations based on plant physiological research. It is assumed that CO2 assimilation is either CO2 -limited, radiation -limited ; and in some models export-limited (the speed at which the products of photosynthesis are used by the plant) . Increased levels of atmospheric CO2 concentration tend to enhance photosynthetic activity, but the effectiveness of this fertilization effect is regulated by environmental conditions and the limiting factor in the photosynthesis reaction. The photosynthesis schemes at the 'leaf level' used by land surface models JULES and CTESSEL have been evaluated against field photosynthesis observations. Also, the response of photosynthesis to radiation, atmospheric CO2 and temperature has been analysed for each model, as this is key to understanding the vegetation response that climate models using these schemes are able to reproduce. Particular emphasis is put on the limiting factor as conditions vary. It is found that while at present day CO2 concentrations export-limitation is only relevant at low temperatures, as CO2 levels rise it becomes an increasingly important restriction on photosynthesis.

Isotopic constraints on global atmospheric methane sources and sinks: a critical assessment of recent findings and new data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwietzke, S.; Sherwood, O.; Michel, S. E.; Bruhwiler, L.; Dlugokencky, E. J.; Tans, P. P.

2017-12-01

Methane isotopic data have increasingly been used in recent studies to help constrain global atmospheric methane sources and sinks. The added scientific contributions to this field include (i) careful comparisons and merging of atmospheric isotope measurement datasets to increase spatial coverage, (ii) in-depth analyses of observed isotopic spatial gradients and seasonal patterns, and (iii) improved datasets of isotopic source signatures. Different interpretations have been made regarding the utility of the isotopic data on the diagnosis of methane sources and sinks. Some studies have found isotopic evidence of a largely microbial source causing the renewed growth in global atmospheric methane since 2007, and underestimated global fossil fuel methane emissions compared to most previous studies. However, other studies have challenged these conclusions by pointing out substantial spatial variability in isotopic source signatures as well as open questions in atmospheric sinks and biomass burning trends. This presentation will review and contrast the main arguments and evidence for the different conclusions. The analysis will distinguish among the different research objectives including (i) global methane budget source attribution in steady-state, (ii) source attribution of recent global methane trends, and (iii) identifying specific methane sources in individual plumes during field campaigns. Additional comparisons of model experiments with atmospheric measurements and updates on isotopic source signature data will complement the analysis.

Oxygen cycling in the northern Benguela Upwelling System: Modelling oxygen sources and sinks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmidt, Martin; Eggert, Anja

2016-12-01

This paper elucidates the oxygen dynamics in the northern Benguela Upwelling System by means of process oriented, numerical modelling. Owing to the complex physical-biological interaction in this system, a coupled hydrodynamic-biogeochemical model is required to grasp the various aspects of the oxygen dynamics. We used high-resolution atmospheric fields derived from observations to force our model, available since 1999. The model results represent a 15 years, consistent data set of realistic hydrographic and ecosystem variables, including oxygen distribution patterns. After a concise description of the main aspects of the model, we use the model data to analyse the components contributing to the oxygen dynamics, namely, the ocean circulation, the exchange between ocean and atmosphere as well as the local biogeochemical oxygen cycling in the system. We thoroughly validate the model with available field observations and remote sensing data. The strengths of coastal upwelling, which controls the nutrient supply to the euphotic zone, as well as the poleward undercurrent that carries oxygen and nutrients to the shelf in the northern Benguela Upwelling System are well reproduced in the model. Among the biological oxygen sinks, mineralisation in the sediment, respiration of zooplankton and nitrification in the water column are important. We also found that vertical migration of zooplankton in response to the oxygen conditions provides a regulating feedback, which may prevent a complete deoxygenation of suboxic waters. As long as oxygen or nitrate are available in the bottom waters, the activities of chemolithoautotrophic sulphur bacteria on the sediment surface keep the redoxcline within the sediment and prevent the release of hydrogen sulphide into the water column. By horizontal integration of the simulated ocean-atmosphere oxygen flux, it can be shown that the Kunene upwelling cell between 16 ° S and 18 ° S is a boundary between the equatorial ocean, characterise by weak oxygen release to the atmosphere, and the subtropical Benguela Upwelling System governed by an enhanced and seasonal varying flux. Furthermore, a comparison of oxygen fluxes controlled by physical transport versus biogeochemical processes shows that the physical processes dominate in the northern Benguela Upwelling System.

Global CO emission estimates inferred from assimilation of MOPITT and IASI CO data, together with observations of O3, NO2, HNO3, and HCHO.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, X.; Jones, D. B. A.; Keller, M.; Jiang, Z.; Bourassa, A. E.; Degenstein, D. A.; Clerbaux, C.; Pierre-Francois, C.

2017-12-01

Atmospheric carbon monoxide (CO) emissions estimated from inverse modeling analyses exhibit large uncertainties, due, in part, to discrepancies in the tropospheric chemistry in atmospheric models. We attempt to reduce the uncertainties in CO emission estimates by constraining the modeled abundance of ozone (O3), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), nitric acid (HNO3), and formaldehyde (HCHO), which are constituents that play a key role in tropospheric chemistry. Using the GEOS-Chem four-dimensional variational (4D-Var) data assimilation system, we estimate CO emissions by assimilating observations of CO from the Measurement of Pollution In the Troposphere (MOPITT) and the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI), together with observations of O3 from the Optical Spectrograph and InfraRed Imager System (OSIRIS) and IASI, NO2 and HCHO from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), and HNO3 from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS). Our experiments evaluate the inferred CO emission estimates from major anthropogenic, biomass burning and biogenic sources. Moreover, we also infer surface emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx = NO + NO2) and isoprene. Our results reveal that this multiple species chemical data assimilation produces a chemical consistent state that effectively adjusts the CO-O3-OH coupling in the model. The O3-induced changes in OH are particularly large in the tropics. Overall, our analysis results in a better constrained tropospheric chemical state.

Analytic Scattering and Refraction Models for Exoplanet Transit Spectra

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robinson, Tyler D.; Fortney, Jonathan J.; Hubbard, William B.

2017-12-01

Observations of exoplanet transit spectra are essential to understanding the physics and chemistry of distant worlds. The effects of opacity sources and many physical processes combine to set the shape of a transit spectrum. Two such key processes—refraction and cloud and/or haze forward-scattering—have seen substantial recent study. However, models of these processes are typically complex, which prevents their incorporation into observational analyses and standard transit spectrum tools. In this work, we develop analytic expressions that allow for the efficient parameterization of forward-scattering and refraction effects in transit spectra. We derive an effective slant optical depth that includes a correction for forward-scattered light, and present an analytic form of this correction. We validate our correction against a full-physics transit spectrum model that includes scattering, and we explore the extent to which the omission of forward-scattering effects may bias models. Also, we verify a common analytic expression for the location of a refractive boundary, which we express in terms of the maximum pressure probed in a transit spectrum. This expression is designed to be easily incorporated into existing tools, and we discuss how the detection of a refractive boundary could help indicate the background atmospheric composition by constraining the bulk refractivity of the atmosphere. Finally, we show that opacity from Rayleigh scattering and collision-induced absorption will outweigh the effects of refraction for Jupiter-like atmospheres whose equilibrium temperatures are above 400-500 K.

Regionally strong feedbacks between the atmosphere and terrestrial biosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Green, Julia K.; Konings, Alexandra G.; Alemohammad, Seyed Hamed; Berry, Joseph; Entekhabi, Dara; Kolassa, Jana; Lee, Jung-Eun; Gentine, Pierre

2017-06-01

The terrestrial biosphere and atmosphere interact through a series of feedback loops. Variability in terrestrial vegetation growth and phenology can modulate fluxes of water and energy to the atmosphere, and thus affect the climatic conditions that in turn regulate vegetation dynamics. Here we analyse satellite observations of solar-induced fluorescence, precipitation, and radiation using a multivariate statistical technique. We find that biosphere-atmosphere feedbacks are globally widespread and regionally strong: they explain up to 30% of precipitation and surface radiation variance in regions where feedbacks occur. Substantial biosphere-precipitation feedbacks are often found in regions that are transitional between energy and water limitation, such as semi-arid or monsoonal regions. Substantial biosphere-radiation feedbacks are often present in several moderately wet regions and in the Mediterranean, where precipitation and radiation increase vegetation growth. Enhancement of latent and sensible heat transfer from vegetation accompanies this growth, which increases boundary layer height and convection, affecting cloudiness, and consequently incident surface radiation. Enhanced evapotranspiration can increase moist convection, leading to increased precipitation. Earth system models underestimate these precipitation and radiation feedbacks mainly because they underestimate the biosphere response to radiation and water availability. We conclude that biosphere-atmosphere feedbacks cluster in specific climatic regions that help determine the net CO2 balance of the biosphere.

Modeling stomatal conductance in the Earth system: linking leaf water-use efficiency and water transport along the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonan, G. B.; Williams, M.; Fisher, R. A.; Oleson, K. W.

2014-05-01

The empirical Ball-Berry stomatal conductance model is commonly used in Earth system models to simulate biotic regulation of evapotranspiration. However, the dependence of stomatal conductance (gs) on vapor pressure deficit (Ds) and soil moisture must both be empirically parameterized. We evaluated the Ball-Berry model used in the Community Land Model version 4.5 (CLM4.5) and an alternative stomatal conductance model that links leaf gas exchange, plant hydraulic constraints, and the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum (SPA) to numerically optimize photosynthetic carbon gain per unit water loss while preventing leaf water potential dropping below a critical minimum level. We evaluated two alternative optimization algorithms: intrinsic water-use efficiency (Δ An/Δ gs, the marginal carbon gain of stomatal opening) and water-use efficiency (Δ An/Δ El, the marginal carbon gain of water loss). We implemented the stomatal models in a multi-layer plant canopy model, to resolve profiles of gas exchange, leaf water potential, and plant hydraulics within the canopy, and evaluated the simulations using: (1) leaf analyses; (2) canopy net radiation, sensible heat flux, latent heat flux, and gross primary production at six AmeriFlux sites spanning 51 site-years; and (3) parameter sensitivity analyses. Without soil moisture stress, the performance of the SPA stomatal conductance model was generally comparable to or somewhat better than the Ball-Berry model in flux tower simulations, but was significantly better than the Ball-Berry model when there was soil moisture stress. Functional dependence of gs on soil moisture emerged from the physiological theory linking leaf water-use efficiency and water flow to and from the leaf along the soil-to-leaf pathway rather than being imposed a priori, as in the Ball-Berry model. Similar functional dependence of gs on Ds emerged from the water-use efficiency optimization. Sensitivity analyses showed that two parameters (stomatal efficiency and root hydraulic conductivity) minimized errors with the SPA stomatal conductance model. The critical stomatal efficiency for optimization (ι) was estimated from leaf trait datasets and is related to the slope parameter (g1) of the Ball-Berry model. The optimized parameter value was consistent with this estimate. Optimized root hydraulic conductivity was consistent with estimates from literature surveys. The two central concepts embodied in the stomatal model, that plants account for both water-use efficiency and for hydraulic safety in regulating stomatal conductance, imply a notion of optimal plant strategies and provide testable model hypotheses, rather than empirical descriptions of plant behavior.

Application of Raytracing Through the High Resolution Numerical Weather Model HIRLAM for the Analysis of European VLBI

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Garcia-Espada, Susana; Haas, Rudiger; Colomer, Francisco

2010-01-01

An important limitation for the precision in the results obtained by space geodetic techniques like VLBI and GPS are tropospheric delays caused by the neutral atmosphere, see e.g. [1]. In recent years numerical weather models (NWM) have been applied to improve mapping functions which are used for tropospheric delay modeling in VLBI and GPS data analyses. In this manuscript we use raytracing to calculate slant delays and apply these to the analysis of Europe VLBI data. The raytracing is performed through the limited area numerical weather prediction (NWP) model HIRLAM. The advantages of this model are high spatial (0.2 deg. x 0.2 deg.) and high temporal resolution (in prediction mode three hours).

Retrieval of ice cloud properties using an optimal estimation algorithm and MODIS infrared observations. Part I: Forward model, error analysis, and information content

PubMed Central

Wang, Chenxi; Platnick, Steven; Zhang, Zhibo; Meyer, Kerry; Yang, Ping

2018-01-01

An optimal estimation (OE) retrieval method is developed to infer three ice cloud properties simultaneously: optical thickness (τ), effective radius (reff), and cloud-top height (h). This method is based on a fast radiative transfer (RT) model and infrared (IR) observations from the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). This study conducts thorough error and information content analyses to understand the error propagation and performance of retrievals from various MODIS band combinations under different cloud/atmosphere states. Specifically, the algorithm takes into account four error sources: measurement uncertainty, fast RT model uncertainty, uncertainties in ancillary datasets (e.g., atmospheric state), and assumed ice crystal habit uncertainties. It is found that the ancillary and ice crystal habit error sources dominate the MODIS IR retrieval uncertainty and cannot be ignored. The information content analysis shows that, for a given ice cloud, the use of four MODIS IR observations is sufficient to retrieve the three cloud properties. However, the selection of MODIS IR bands that provide the most information and their order of importance varies with both the ice cloud properties and the ambient atmospheric and the surface states. As a result, this study suggests the inclusion of all MODIS IR bands in practice since little a priori information is available. PMID:29707470

The dependence on atmospheric resolution of ENSO and related East Asian-western North Pacific summer climate variability in a coupled model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Bo; Zhao, Guijie; Huang, Gang; Wang, Pengfei; Yan, Bangliang

2017-08-01

The authors present results for El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and East Asian-western North Pacific climate variability simulated in a new version high-resolution coupled model (ICM.V2) developed at the Center for Monsoon System Research of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (CMSR, IAP), Chinese Academy of Sciences. The analyses are based on the last 100-year output of a 1000-year simulation. Results are compared to an earlier version of the same coupled model (ICM.V1), reanalysis, and observations. The two versions of ICM have similar physics but different atmospheric resolution. The simulated climatological mean states show marked improvement over many regions, especially the tropics in ICM.V2 compared to those in ICM.V1. The common bias in the cold tongue has reduced, and the warm biases along the ocean boundaries have improved as well. With improved simulation of ENSO, including its period and strength, the ENSO-related western North Pacific summer climate variability becomes more realistic compared to the observations. The simulated East Asian summer monsoon anomalies in the El Niño decaying summer are substantially more realistic in ICM.V2, which might be related to a better simulation of the Indo-Pacific Ocean capacitor (IPOC) effect and Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO).

Retrieval of Ice Cloud Properties Using an Optimal Estimation Algorithm and MODIS Infrared Observations. Part I: Forward Model, Error Analysis, and Information Content

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Chenxi; Platnick, Steven; Zhang, Zhibo; Meyer, Kerry; Yang, Ping

2016-01-01

An optimal estimation (OE) retrieval method is developed to infer three ice cloud properties simultaneously: optical thickness (tau), effective radius (r(sub eff)), and cloud-top height (h). This method is based on a fast radiative transfer (RT) model and infrared (IR) observations from the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). This study conducts thorough error and information content analyses to understand the error propagation and performance of retrievals from various MODIS band combinations under different cloud/atmosphere states. Specifically, the algorithm takes into account four error sources: measurement uncertainty, fast RT model uncertainty, uncertainties in ancillary datasets (e.g., atmospheric state), and assumed ice crystal habit uncertainties. It is found that the ancillary and ice crystal habit error sources dominate the MODIS IR retrieval uncertainty and cannot be ignored. The information content analysis shows that, for a given ice cloud, the use of four MODIS IR observations is sufficient to retrieve the three cloud properties. However, the selection of MODIS IR bands that provide the most information and their order of importance varies with both the ice cloud properties and the ambient atmospheric and the surface states. As a result, this study suggests the inclusion of all MODIS IR bands in practice since little a priori information is available.

Retrieval of Ice Cloud Properties Using an Optimal Estimation Algorithm and MODIS Infrared Observations. Part I: Forward Model, Error Analysis, and Information Content

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Chenxi; Platnick, Steven; Zhang, Zhibo; Meyer, Kerry; Yang, Ping

2016-01-01

An optimal estimation (OE) retrieval method is developed to infer three ice cloud properties simultaneously: optical thickness (tau), effective radius (r(sub eff)), and cloud top height (h). This method is based on a fast radiative transfer (RT) model and infrared (IR) observations from the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). This study conducts thorough error and information content analyses to understand the error propagation and performance of retrievals from various MODIS band combinations under different cloud/atmosphere states. Specifically, the algorithm takes into account four error sources: measurement uncertainty, fast RT model uncertainty, uncertainties in ancillary data sets (e.g., atmospheric state), and assumed ice crystal habit uncertainties. It is found that the ancillary and ice crystal habit error sources dominate the MODIS IR retrieval uncertainty and cannot be ignored. The information content analysis shows that for a given ice cloud, the use of four MODIS IR observations is sufficient to retrieve the three cloud properties. However, the selection of MODIS IR bands that provide the most information and their order of importance varies with both the ice cloud properties and the ambient atmospheric and the surface states. As a result, this study suggests the inclusion of all MODIS IR bands in practice since little a priori information is available.

Vertical Profiles Of Temperature And Dust Derived From Mars Climate Sounder

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teanby, Nicholas; Irwin, P. G.; Howett, C.; Calcutt, S.; Lolachi, R.; Bowles, N.; Taylor, F.; Schofield, J. T.; Kleinboehl, A.; McCleese, D. J.

2007-10-01

Mars Climate Sounder (MCS) on board NASA's Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) primarily operates as a limb sounding infrared radiometer. The small field of view and limb scanning mode allow retrieval of temperature and dust properties from the surface up to approximately 80km with 5km vertical resolution. The polar orbit of MRO gives coverage of all latitudes at 3pm and 3am local time. The ability of MCS to sounds these altitudes at high spatial and temporal resolution gives a unique dataset with which to test our understanding of the Martian atmosphere. It also complements and extends upon previous climatalogical datasets (for example TES). Measured mid-infrared radiances from MCS were analysed using the correlated-k approximation with Oxford's NEMESIS retrieval software. The correlated-k approximation was compared with a line-by-line model to confirm its accuracy under Martian atmospheric conditions. Dust properties were taken from analysis of TES data by Wolff and Clancy (2003). We present profiles of temperature and dust for data covering September to December 2006. During this period Mars' north pole was experiencing summer and the south pole was in winter. Preliminary results show that high altitude warming over the southern winter pole is greater than that predicted by models. Our results will be compared to numerical models of the Martian atmosphere and the implications discussed.

Evaluating atmospheric blocking in the global climate model EC-Earth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hartung, Kerstin; Hense, Andreas; Kjellström, Erik

2013-04-01

Atmospheric blocking is a phenomenon of the midlatitudal troposphere, which plays an important role in climate variability. Therefore a correct representation of blocking in climate models is necessary, especially for evaluating the results of climate projections. In my master's thesis a validation of blocking in the coupled climate model EC-Earth is performed. Blocking events are detected based on the Tibaldi-Molteni Index. At first, a comparison with the reanalysis dataset ERA-Interim is conducted. The blocking frequency depending on longitude shows a small general underestimation of blocking in the model - a well known problem. Scaife et al. (2011) proposed the correction of model bias as a way to solve this problem. However, applying the correction to the higher resolution EC-Earth model does not yield any improvement. Composite maps show a link between blocking events and surface variables. One example is the formation of a positive surface temperature anomaly north and a negative anomaly south of the blocking anticyclone. In winter the surface temperature in EC-Earth can be reproduced quite well, but in summer a cold bias over the inner-European ocean is present. Using generalized linear models (GLMs) I want to study the connection between regional blocking and global atmospheric variables further. GLMs have the advantage of being applicable to non-Gaussian variables. Therefore the blocking index at each longitude, which is Bernoulli distributed, can be analysed statistically with GLMs. I applied a logistic regression between the blocking index and the geopotential height at 500 hPa to study the teleconnection of blocking events at midlatitudes with global geopotential height. GLMs also offer the possibility of quantifying the connections shown in composite maps. The implementation of the logistic regression can even be expanded to a search for trends in blocking frequency, for example in the scenario simulations.

Poleward displacement of coastal upwelling-favorable winds through the 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rykaczewski, R. R.; Dunne, J. P.; Sydeman, W. J.; Garcia-Reyes, M.; Black, B.; Bograd, S. J.

2016-02-01

Coastal upwelling is a critical factor influencing the biological production, acidification, and deoxygenation of the ocean's major eastern boundary current ecosystems. A leading conceptual hypothesis projects that the winds that induce coastal upwelling will intensify in response to increased land-sea temperature differences associated with anthropogenic global warming. We examine this hypothesis using an ensemble of coupled, ocean-atmosphere models and find limited evidence for intensification of upwelling-favorable winds or atmospheric pressure gradients in response to increasing land-sea temperature differences. However, our analyses reveal consistent latitudinal and seasonal dependencies of projected changes in wind intensity associated with poleward migration of major atmospheric high-pressure cells. Summertime winds near poleward boundaries of climatological upwelling zones are projected to intensify, while winds near equatorward boundaries are projected to weaken. Developing a better understanding of future changes in upwelling winds is essential to identifying portions of the oceans susceptible to increased hypoxia, ocean acidification, and eutrophication under climate change.

Atmospheric circulation types and extreme areal precipitation in southern central Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jacobeit, Jucundus; Homann, Markus; Philipp, Andreas; Beck, Christoph

2017-04-01

Gridded daily rainfall data for southern central Europe are aggregated to regions of similar precipitation variability by means of S-mode principal component analyses separately for the meteorological seasons. Atmospheric circulation types (CTs) are derived by a particular clustering technique including large-scale fields of SLP, vertical wind and relative humidity at the 700 hPa level as well as the regional rainfall time series. Multiple regression models with monthly CT frequencies as predictors are derived for monthly frequencies and amounts of regional precipitation extremes (beyond the 95 % percentile). Using predictor output from different global climate models (ECHAM6, ECHAM5, EC-EARTH) for different scenarios (RCP4.5, RCP8.5, A1B) and two projection periods (2021-2050, 2071-2100) leads to assessments of future changes in regional precipitation extremes. Most distinctive changes are indicated for the summer season with mainly increasing extremes for the earlier period and widespread decreasing extremes towards the end of the 21st century, mostly for the strong scenario. Considerable uncertainties arise from the predictor use of different global climate models, especially during the winter and spring seasons.

SPARC Intercomparison of Middle Atmosphere Climatologies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Randel, William; Fleming, Eric; Geller, Marvin; Hamilton, Kevin; Karoly, David; Ortland, Dave; Pawson, Steve; Swinbank, Richard; Udelhofen, Petra

2002-01-01

This atlas presents detailed incomparisons of several climatological wind and temperature data sets which cover the middle atmosphere (over altitudes approx. 10-80 km). A number of middle atmosphere climatologies have been developed in the research community based on a variety of meteorological analyses and satellite data sets. Here we present comparisons between these climatological data sets for a number of basic circulation statistics, such as zonal mean temperature, winds and eddy flux statistics. Special attention is focused on tropical winds and temperatures, where large differences exist among separate analyses. We also include comparisons between the global climatologies and historical rocketsonde wind and temperature measurements, and also with more recent lidar temperature data. These comparisons highlight differences and uncertainties in contemporary middle atmosphere data sets, and allow biases in particular analyses to be isolated. In addition, a brief atlas of zonal mean temperature and wind statistics is provided to highlight data availability and as a quick-look reference. This technical report is intended as a companion to the climatological data sets held in archive at the SPARC Data Center (http://www.sparc.sunysb.edu).

Applications of AVHRR-Derived Ice Motions for the Arctic and Antarctic

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Maslanik, James; Emery, William

1998-01-01

Characterization and diagnosis of sea ice/atmosphere/ocean interactions require a synthesis of observations and modeling to identify the key mechanisms controlling the ice/climate system. In this project, we combined product generation, observational analyses, and modeling to define and interpret variability in ice motion in conjunction with thermodynamic factors such as surface temperature and albedo. The goals of this work were twofold: (1) to develop and test procedures to produce an integrated set of polar products from remotely-sensed and supporting data; and (2) to apply these data to understand processes at work in controlling sea ice distribution.

On the atmospheric photochemistry of nitric acid

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Austin, J.; Garcia, R. R.; Russell, J. M., III; Solomon, S.; Tuck, A. F.

1986-01-01

Measurements of the temporal and spatial variations in HNO3, particularly those from the Nimbus 7 limb IR monitor of the stratosphere (LIMS) satellite experiment, are compared to both a two-dimensional chemical/dynamical model and to chemistry/parcel trajectory analyses. Significant discrepancies are found between the observed and modeled variations in the winter season, especially in the polar night region. The study of the evolution of HNO3 suggests that an important source exists for this species in the high-latitude winter stratosphere that is not included in presently accepted photochemical schemes. Possible reactions to account for this discrepancy are explored.

Evaluating the Contribution of NASA Remotely-Sensed Data Sets on a Convection-Allowing Forecast Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zavodsky, Bradley T.; Case, Jonathan L.; Molthan, Andrew L.

2012-01-01

The Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center is a collaborative partnership between NASA and operational forecasting partners, including a number of National Weather Service forecast offices. SPoRT provides real-time NASA products and capabilities to help its partners address specific operational forecast challenges. One challenge that forecasters face is using guidance from local and regional deterministic numerical models configured at convection-allowing resolution to help assess a variety of mesoscale/convective-scale phenomena such as sea-breezes, local wind circulations, and mesoscale convective weather potential on a given day. While guidance from convection-allowing models has proven valuable in many circumstances, the potential exists for model improvements by incorporating more representative land-water surface datasets, and by assimilating retrieved temperature and moisture profiles from hyper-spectral sounders. In order to help increase the accuracy of deterministic convection-allowing models, SPoRT produces real-time, 4-km CONUS forecasts using a configuration of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model (hereafter SPoRT-WRF) that includes unique NASA products and capabilities including 4-km resolution soil initialization data from the Land Information System (LIS), 2-km resolution SPoRT SST composites over oceans and large water bodies, high-resolution real-time Green Vegetation Fraction (GVF) composites derived from the Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument, and retrieved temperature and moisture profiles from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI). NCAR's Model Evaluation Tools (MET) verification package is used to generate statistics of model performance compared to in situ observations and rainfall analyses for three months during the summer of 2012 (June-August). Detailed analyses of specific severe weather outbreaks during the summer will be presented to assess the potential added-value of the SPoRT datasets and data assimilation methodology compared to a WRF configuration without the unique datasets and data assimilation.

Reference and Standard Atmosphere Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, Dale L.; Roberts, Barry C.; Vaughan, William W.; Parker, Nelson C. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

This paper describes the development of standard and reference atmosphere models along with the history of their origin and use since the mid 19th century. The first "Standard Atmospheres" were established by international agreement in the 1920's. Later some countries, notably the United States, also developed and published "Standard Atmospheres". The term "Reference Atmospheres" is used to identify atmosphere models for specific geographical locations. Range Reference Atmosphere Models developed first during the 1960's are examples of these descriptions of the atmosphere. This paper discusses the various models, scopes, applications and limitations relative to use in aerospace industry activities.

Spectral measurements and analyses of atmospheric effects on remote sensor data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hulstrom, R. L.

1975-01-01

The radiance as measured by a satellite remote sensor is determined by a number of different factors, including the intervening atmosphere, the target reflectivity characteristics, the characteristics of the total incident solar irradiance, and the incident solar irradiance/sensor viewing geometry. Measurement techniques and instrumentation are considered, taking into account total and diffuse solar irradiance, target reflectance/radiance, atmospheric optical depth/transmittance, and atmospheric path radiance.

Relative effects on stratospheric ozone of halogenated methanes and ethanes of social and industrial interest

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fisher, Donald A.; Hales, Charles H.; Filkin, David L.; Ko, Malcolm K. W.; Sze, N. Dak; Connell, Peter S.; Wuebbles, Donald J.; Isaksen, Ivar S. A.; Stordal, Frode

1990-01-01

Four atmospheric modeling groups have calculated relative effects of several halocarbons (chlorofluorocarbons (CFC's)-11, 12, 113, 114, and 115; hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFC's) 22, 123, 124, 141b, and 142b; hydrofluorocarbons (HFC's) 125, 134a, 143a, and 152a, carbon tetrachloride; and methyl chloroform) on stratospheric ozone. Effects on stratospheric ozone were calculated for each compound and normalized relative to the effect of CFC-11. These models include the representations for homogeneous physical and chemical processes in the middle atmosphere but do no account for either heterogeneous chemistry or polar dynamics which are important in the spring time loss of ozone over Antarctica. Relative calculated effects using a range of models compare reasonably well. Within the limits of the uncertainties of these model results, compounds now under consideration as functional replacements for fully halogenated compounds have modeled stratospheric ozone reductions of 10 percent or less of that of CFC-11. Sensitivity analyses examined the sensitivity of relative calculated effects to levels of other trace gases, assumed transport in the models, and latitudinal and seasonal local dependencies. Relative effects on polar ozone are discussed in the context of evolving information on the special processes affecting ozone, especially during polar winter-springtime. Lastly, the time dependency of relative effects were calculated.

Air Quality Modeling Using the NASA GEOS-5 Multispecies Data Assimilation System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Keller, Christoph A.; Pawson, Steven; Wargan, Krzysztof; Weir, Brad

2018-01-01

The NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) data assimilation system (DAS) has been expanded to include chemically reactive tropospheric trace gases including ozone (O3), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and carbon monoxide (CO). This system combines model analyses from the GEOS-5 model with detailed atmospheric chemistry and observations from MLS (O3), OMI (O3 and NO2), and MOPITT (CO). We show results from a variety of assimilation test experiments, highlighting the improvements in the representation of model species concentrations by up to 50% compared to an assimilation-free control experiment. Taking into account the rapid chemical cycling of NO2 when applying the assimilation increments greatly improves assimilation skills for NO2 and provides large benefits for model concentrations near the surface. Analysis of the geospatial distribution of the assimilation increments suggest that the free-running model overestimates biomass burning emissions but underestimates lightning NOx emissions by 5-20%. We discuss the capability of the chemical data assimilation system to improve atmospheric composition forecasts through improved initial value and boundary condition inputs, particularly during air pollution events. We find that the current assimilation system meaningfully improves short-term forecasts (1-3 day). For longer-term forecasts more emphasis on updating the emissions instead of initial concentration fields is needed.

Uncertainty in Earth System Models: Benchmarks for Ocean Model Performance and Validation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ogunro, O. O.; Elliott, S.; Collier, N.; Wingenter, O. W.; Deal, C.; Fu, W.; Hoffman, F. M.

2017-12-01

The mean ocean CO2 sink is a major component of the global carbon budget, with marine reservoirs holding about fifty times more carbon than the atmosphere. Phytoplankton play a significant role in the net carbon sink through photosynthesis and drawdown, such that about a quarter of anthropogenic CO2 emissions end up in the ocean. Biology greatly increases the efficiency of marine environments in CO2 uptake and ultimately reduces the impact of the persistent rise in atmospheric concentrations. However, a number of challenges remain in appropriate representation of marine biogeochemical processes in Earth System Models (ESM). These threaten to undermine the community effort to quantify seasonal to multidecadal variability in ocean uptake of atmospheric CO2. In a bid to improve analyses of marine contributions to climate-carbon cycle feedbacks, we have developed new analysis methods and biogeochemistry metrics as part of the International Ocean Model Benchmarking (IOMB) effort. Our intent is to meet the growing diagnostic and benchmarking needs of ocean biogeochemistry models. The resulting software package has been employed to validate DOE ocean biogeochemistry results by comparison with observational datasets. Several other international ocean models contributing results to the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) were analyzed simultaneously. Our comparisons suggest that the biogeochemical processes determining CO2 entry into the global ocean are not well represented in most ESMs. Polar regions continue to show notable biases in many critical biogeochemical and physical oceanographic variables. Some of these disparities could have first order impacts on the conversion of atmospheric CO2 to organic carbon. In addition, single forcing simulations show that the current ocean state can be partly explained by the uptake of anthropogenic emissions. Combined effects of two or more of these forcings on ocean biogeochemical cycles and ecosystems are challenging to predict since additive or antagonistic effects may occur. A benchmarking tool for accurate assessment and validation of marine biogeochemical outputs will be indispensable as the model community continues to improve ESM developments. It will provide a first order tool in understanding climate-carbon cycle feedbacks.

Effect of Surface Reflectivity Variations On Uv-visible Limb Scattering Measurements of The Atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oikarinen, L.

Solar UV and visible radiation scattered at the limb of the Earth's atmosphere is used for measuring density profiles of atmosperic trace gases. For example, the OSIRIS instrument on Odin and SCIAMACHY on Envisat use this technique. A limb-viewing instrument does not see Earth's surface or tropospheric clouds directly. However, in- direct light reflected from the surface or low altitude clouds can make up tens of per cents of the signal. Furthermore, the surface area that contributes to limb intensity ex- tends over 1000 km along the instrument line-of-sight and 200 km across it. Over this area surface reflectivity can vary from almost 0% to 100%. Inaccurate modelling of reflected intensity is a potential source of error in the trace gas retrieval. Generally, radiative transfer models used for analysing limb measure- ments have to assume that the surface has a constant albedo. We have used a three- dimensional Monte Carlo radiative transfer model to study the effects of surface vari- ation to limb radiance. Based on the simulations, we have developed an approximate method for averaging surface albedo for limb scattering measurements with the help of a simple single scattering radiative transfer model.

Minimization of model representativity errors in identification of point source emission from atmospheric concentration measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharan, Maithili; Singh, Amit Kumar; Singh, Sarvesh Kumar

2017-11-01

Estimation of an unknown atmospheric release from a finite set of concentration measurements is considered an ill-posed inverse problem. Besides ill-posedness, the estimation process is influenced by the instrumental errors in the measured concentrations and model representativity errors. The study highlights the effect of minimizing model representativity errors on the source estimation. This is described in an adjoint modelling framework and followed in three steps. First, an estimation of point source parameters (location and intensity) is carried out using an inversion technique. Second, a linear regression relationship is established between the measured concentrations and corresponding predicted using the retrieved source parameters. Third, this relationship is utilized to modify the adjoint functions. Further, source estimation is carried out using these modified adjoint functions to analyse the effect of such modifications. The process is tested for two well known inversion techniques, called renormalization and least-square. The proposed methodology and inversion techniques are evaluated for a real scenario by using concentrations measurements from the Idaho diffusion experiment in low wind stable conditions. With both the inversion techniques, a significant improvement is observed in the retrieval of source estimation after minimizing the representativity errors.

Aerosols Observations with a new lidar station in Punta Arenas, Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barja, Boris; Zamorano, Felix; Ristori, Pablo; Otero, Lidia; Quel, Eduardo; Sugimoto, Nobuo; Shimizu, Atsushi; Santana, Jorge

2018-04-01

A tropospheric lidar system was installed in Punta Arenas, Chile (53.13°S, 70.88°W) in September 2016 under the collaboration project SAVERNET (Chile, Japan and Argentina) to monitor the atmosphere. Statistical analyses of the clouds and aerosols behavior and some cases of dust detected with lidar, at these high southern latitude and cold environment regions during three months (austral spring) are discussed using information from satellite, modelling and solar radiation ground measurements.

Electrical characteristics and energy budget of dielectric barrier discharges in argon at atmospheric pressure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Becker, Markus M.; Hoder, Tomas; Loffhagen, Detlef

2014-10-01

Recently, an asymmetric dielectric barrier discharge ignited in atmospheric pressure argon in a single filament configuration has been analysed by experiments and modelling [1,2]. A special feature of the discharge under consideration is the occurrence of two different discharge modes at different amplitudes of the sinusoidal voltage supply. At voltages below the critical voltage of 2 kV ordinary filamentary discharges occur, while at higher voltages discharges with striated filaments emerge. In the present contribution the mode transition is investigated with respect to the electrical characteristics as well as the electron energy budget by means of numerical modelling. It is found that the mode transition caused by an increase of the voltage amplitude is accompanied by a non-linear change of the power density and a marked rise of the electron energy gain in chemo-ionization processes. This work was partly supported by the German Research Foundation within the Collaborative Research Centre Transregio 24.

An assessment of the Jenkinson and Collison synoptic classification to a continental mid-latitude location

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spellman, Greg

2017-05-01

A weather-type catalogue based on the Jenkinson and Collison method was developed for an area in south-west Russia for the period 1961-2010. Gridded sea level pressure data was obtained from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis. The resulting catalogue was analysed for frequency of individual types and groups of weather types to characterise long-term atmospheric circulation in this region. Overall, the most frequent type is anticyclonic (A) (23.3 %) followed by cyclonic (C) (11.9 %); however, there are some key seasonal patterns with westerly circulation being significantly more common in winter than summer. The utility of this synoptic classification is evaluated by modelling daily rainfall amounts. A low level of error is found using a simple model based on the prevailing weather type. Finally, characteristics of the circulation classification are compared to those for the original JC British Isles catalogue and a much more equal distribution of flow types is seen in the former classification.

Combining measurements and modelling to quantify the contribution of atmospheric fallout, local industry and road traffic to PAH stocks in contrasting catchments.

PubMed

Gateuille, David; Evrard, Olivier; Lefevre, Irène; Moreau-Guigon, Elodie; Alliot, Fabrice; Chevreuil, Marc; Mouchel, Jean-Marie

2014-06-01

Various sources supply PAHs that accumulate in soils. The methodology we developed provided an evaluation of the contribution of local sources (road traffic, local industries) versus remote sources (long range atmospheric transport, fallout and gaseous exchanges) to PAH stocks in two contrasting subcatchments (46-614 km²) of the Seine River basin (France). Soil samples (n = 336) were analysed to investigate the spatial pattern of soil contamination across the catchments and an original combination with radionuclide measurements provided new insights into the evolution of the contamination with depth. Relationships between PAH concentrations and the distance to the potential sources were modelled. Despite both subcatchments are mainly rural, roadside areas appeared to concentrate 20% of the contamination inside the catchment while a local industry was found to be responsible for up to 30% of the stocks. Those results have important implications for understanding and controlling PAH contamination in rural areas of early-industrialized regions. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Radiative transfer modeling for analyses with Akatsuki/IR2 images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sato, Takao M.; Satoh, Takehiko; Hashimoto, George L.; Lee, Yeon Joo; Sagawa, Hideo; Kasaba, Yasumasa

2017-10-01

The 2-micron camera (IR2) onboard Japanese Venus orbiter, Akatsuki had regularly observed Venus with four narrow-band filters (1.735, 2.02, 2.26, and 2.32 micron) from the late of March, 2016 until the electronic device was unable to control IR2 on December 9, 2016. For approximately nine months, we accumulated more than 3,000 dayside and nightside images of Venus. The main purposes of analyzing IR2 data are (i) to study the dynamics in the upper, middle, and lower atmosphere with the cloud-tracked winds, (ii) to derive the cloud top altitude with the 2.02 micron channel which is located in a CO2 absorption band, (iii) to deduce CO distribution, which is thought to be a good tracer of the atmospheric circulation below the massive clouds, by utilizing the 2.26 and 2.32 micron channels, and (iv) to investigate aerosol properties of the lower clouds with the 1.735 and 2.26 micron channels. For purposes (ii)-(iv), we have developed a line-by-line based radiative transfer model for generating synthetic radiance at the IR2 channels. For both solar and thermal radiation cases, adding doubling method (Hovenier et al., 2004; Liu and Weng, 2006) is selected for solving multiple scattering by clouds and molecules. We considered a total of eight molecules (H2O, CO2, CO, SO2, HF, HCl, OCS, and N2) and line parameters of the first three molecules are taken from HITEMP10 and those of the others are from HITRAN12. For all considered molecules, their line shapes are modelled as Voigt function with cutoff of 125 cm-1. For CO2, additional modification is done based on Tonkov et al. (1996). A cloud model consisting of four modal cloud particles with a mixture of 75% H2SO4 and 25% H2O is taken from Haus et al. (2013). This model was tested from near-infrared to mid-infrared ranges for the spectral analyses of Venus Express and Venera 15 data, which is useful for interpreting the very limited spectral information such as Akatsuki data. In this presentation, we will show the detail of the radiative transfer modeling for analyzing the IR2 data and, as its demonstration, the primitive results of spatiotemporal variations of CO abundance in the lower atmosphere.

The 4-Day Wave as Observed from the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite Microwave Limb Sounder

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Allen, D. R.; Stanford, J. L.; Elson, L. S.; Fishbein, E. F.; Froidevaux, L.; Waters, J. W.

1997-01-01

The "4-day wave" is an eastward moving quasi-nondispersive feature with period near 4 days occurring near the winter polar stratopause. This paper presents evidence of the 4-day feature in Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) temperature, geopotential height, and ozone data from the late southern winters of 1992 and 1993. Space-time spectral analyses reveal a double-peaked temperature structure consisting of one peak near the stratopause and another in the lower mesosphere, with an out-of-phase relationship between the two peaks. This double- peaked structure is reminiscent of recent three-dimensional barotropic/baroclinic instability model predictions and is observed here for the first time. The height variation of the 4-day ozone signal is shown to compare well with a linear advective-photochemical tracer model. Negative regions of quasigeostrophic potential vorticity (PV) gradient and positive Eliassen-Palm flux divergence are shown to occur, consistent with instability dynamics playing a role in wave forcing. Spectral analyses of PV derived from MLS geopotential height fields reveal a 4-day signal peaking near the polar stratopause. The three-dimensional structure of the 4-day wave resembles the potential vorticity "charge" concept, wherein a PV anomaly in the atmosphere (analogous to an electrical charge in a dielectric material) induces a geopotential field, a vertically oriented temperature dipole, and circulation about the vertical axis.

Aerial thermography for energy efficiency of buildings: the ChoT project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mandanici, Emanuele; Conte, Paolo

2016-10-01

The ChoT project aims at analysing the potential of aerial thermal imagery to produce large scale datasets for energetic efficiency analyses and policies in urban environments. It is funded by the Italian Ministry of Education, University and Research (MIUR) in the framework of the SIR 2014 (Scientific Independence of young Researchers) programme. The city of Bologna (Italy) was chosen as the case study. The acquisition of thermal infrared images at different times by multiple aerial flights is one of the main tasks of the project. The present paper provides an overview of the ChoT project, but it delves into some specific aspects of the data processing chain: the computing of the radiometric quantities of the atmosphere, the estimation of surface emissivity (through an object-oriented classification applied on a very high resolution multispectral image, to distinguish among the major roofing materials) and sky-view factor (by means of a digital surface model). To collect ground truth data, the surface temperature of roofs and road pavings was measured at several locations at the same time as the aircraft acquired the thermal images. Furthermore, the emissivity of some roofing materials was estimated by means of a thermal camera and a contact probe. All the surveys were georeferenced by GPS. The results of the first surveying campaign demonstrate the high sensitivity of the model to the variability of the surface emissivity and the atmospheric parameters.

Using Browser Notebooks to Analyse Big Atmospheric Data-sets in the Cloud

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robinson, N.; Tomlinson, J.; Arribas, A.; Prudden, R.

2016-12-01

We are presenting an account of our experience building an ecosystem for the analysis of big atmospheric data-sets. By using modern technologies we have developed a prototype platform which is scaleable and capable of analysing very large atmospheric datasets. We tested different big-data ecosystems such as Hadoop MapReduce, Spark and Dask, in order to find the one which was best suited for analysis of multidimensional binary data such as NetCDF. We make extensive use of infrastructure-as-code and containerisation to provide a platform which is reusable, and which can scale to accommodate changes in demand. We make this platform readily accessible using browser based notebooks. As a result, analysts with minimal technology experience can, in tens of lines of Python, make interactive data-visualisation web pages, which can analyse very large amounts of data using cutting edge big-data technology

Forecasting seeing and parameters of long-exposure images by means of ARIMA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kornilov, Matwey V.

2016-02-01

Atmospheric turbulence is the one of the major limiting factors for ground-based astronomical observations. In this paper, the problem of short-term forecasting seeing is discussed. The real data that were obtained by atmospheric optical turbulence (OT) measurements above Mount Shatdzhatmaz in 2007-2013 have been analysed. Linear auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models are used for the forecasting. A new procedure for forecasting the image characteristics of direct astronomical observations (central image intensity, full width at half maximum, radius encircling 80 % of the energy) has been proposed. Probability density functions of the forecast of these quantities are 1.5-2 times thinner than the respective unconditional probability density functions. Overall, this study found that the described technique could adequately describe temporal stochastic variations of the OT power.

Transport of Chemical Vapors from Subsurface Sources to Atmosphere as Affected by Shallow Subsurface and Atmospheric Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rice, A. K.; Smits, K. M.; Hosken, K.; Schulte, P.; Illangasekare, T. H.

2012-12-01

Understanding the movement and modeling of chemical vapor through unsaturated soil in the shallow subsurface when subjected to natural atmospheric thermal and mass flux boundary conditions at the land surface is of importance to applications such as landmine detection and vapor intrusion into subsurface structures. New, advanced technologies exist to sense chemical signatures at the land/atmosphere interface, but interpretation of these sensor signals to make assessment of source conditions remains a challenge. Chemical signatures are subject to numerous interactions while migrating through the unsaturated soil environment, attenuating signal strength and masking contaminant source conditions. The dominant process governing movement of gases through porous media is often assumed to be Fickian diffusion through the air phase with minimal or no quantification of other processes contributing to vapor migration, such as thermal diffusion, convective gas flow due to the displacement of air, expansion/contraction of air due to temperature changes, temporal and spatial variations of soil moisture and fluctuations in atmospheric pressure. Soil water evaporation and interfacial mass transfer add to the complexity of the system. The goal of this work is to perform controlled experiments under transient conditions of soil moisture, temperature and wind at the land/atmosphere interface and use the resulting dataset to test existing theories on subsurface gas flow and iterate between numerical modeling efforts and experimental data. Ultimately, we aim to update conceptual models of shallow subsurface vapor transport to include conditionally significant transport processes and inform placement of mobile sensors and/or networks. We have developed a two-dimensional tank apparatus equipped with a network of sensors and a flow-through head space for simulation of the atmospheric interface. A detailed matrix of realistic atmospheric boundary conditions was applied in a series of experiments. Water saturation, capillary pressure, air and soil temperature, and relative humidity were continuously monitored. Aqueous TCE was injected into the tank below the water table and allowed to volatilize. TCE concentration exiting the tank head space was measured through interval sampling by direct injection into a gas chromatograph. To quantify the transient concentration of TCE vapor in the soil pore space a novel use of Solid Phase Micro-Extraction (SPME) was developed. Results from our numerical simulations were compared with the experimental data, which demonstrated the importance of considering the interaction of the atmosphere with the subsurface in conceptualization and numerical model development. Results also emphasize that soil saturation and transient sorption have a significant effect on vapor transport through the vadose zone. Follow-up tests and detailed analyses are still underway. Additional applications of this work include carbon sequestration leakage, methane contamination in the shallow subsurface and environmental impact of hydraulic fracturing.

Digital atmospheres: affective practices of care in Elefriends.

PubMed

Tucker, Ian M; Goodings, Lewis

2017-05-01

This article develops the concept of digital atmosphere to analyse the affective power of social media to shape practices of care and support for people living with mental distress. Using contemporary accounts of affective atmospheres, the article focuses on feelings of distress, support and care that unfold through digital atmospheres. The power of social media intersects with people's support and care-seeking practices in multiple ways and not in a straightforward model of 'accessing or providing support'. Indeed, we find that the caring relations developed through social media often need to be cared for themselves. The article draws on online and interview data from a larger project investigating how practices of care and support are (re)configured in the mental health-related social media site Elefriends. Users have to negotiate the disruption of moving support online, as well as the possibility of becoming subject to a fragility in care, in which caring for oneself becomes bound up in the ambiguities of caring for others. We argue that understanding how experiences of distress are shaped by social media is essential for understanding the implications of the increased digitisation of mental healthcare. © 2017 Foundation for the Sociology of Health & Illness.

Simultaneous generation of acidic and alkaline water using atmospheric air plasma formed in water

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Imai, Shin-ichi; Sakaguchi, Yoshihiro; Shirafuji, Tatsuru

2018-01-01

Plasmas on water surfaces and in water can be generated at atmosphere pressure using several kinds of gases, including helium, argon, oxygen, and air. Nitrates are generated in water through the interaction between water and atmospheric plasma that uses ambient air. Water that has been made acidic by the generation of nitric acid and the acidic water can be used for the sterilization of medical instruments, toilet bowls, and washing machines. Dishwashers are another potential application, as alkaline water is needed to remove grease from tableware. To investigate the production of alkaline water and its mechanism, gas component analysis was performed using an atmospheric quadrupole mass spectrometer. It was found that hydrogen gas evolves from the water surrounding both the positive and negative electrodes. The gas and water analyses carried out in this study revealed that acidic water of pH 2.5 and alkaline water of pH 10 can be simultaneously generated by our ambient air plasma device, which has been altered from our original model. The alterative plasma device has a partition wall, which is made of conductive resin, between the positive and negative electrodes.

Comparison of argon-based and nitrogen-based modified atmosphere packaging on bacterial growth and product quality of chicken breast fillets.

PubMed

Herbert, Ulrike; Rossaint, Sonja; Khanna, Meik-Ankush; Kreyenschmidt, Judith

2013-05-01

Poultry fillets were packaged under 6 different gas atmospheres (A: 15% Ar, 60% O2, 25% CO2; B: 15% N2, 60% O2, 25% CO2; C: 25% Ar, 45% O2, 30% CO2; D: 25% N2, 45% O2, 30% CO2; E: 82% Ar; 18% CO2; F: 82% N2, 18% CO2) and stored at 4°C. During storage, the growth of typical spoilage organisms (Brochothrix thermosphacta, Pseudomonas spp., Enterobacteriaceae, and Lactobacilli spp.) and total viable count were analyzed and modeled using the Gompertz function. Sensory analyses of the poultry samples were carried out by trained sensory panelists for color, odor, texture, drip loss, and general appearance. No significant difference in microbiological growth parameters was observed for fresh poultry stored under an argon-enriched atmosphere in comparison with nitrogen, except the B. thermosphacta stored under 82% argon. The sensory evaluation showed a significant effect of an argon-enriched atmosphere, particularly on color of meat stored under 15% argon (P < 0.05). In contrast, 25 and 82% argon concentrations in place of nitrogen showed no beneficial effect on sensory parameters.

Cluster Analysis of Atmospheric Dynamics and Pollution Transport in a Coastal Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sokolov, Anton; Dmitriev, Egor; Maksimovich, Elena; Delbarre, Hervé; Augustin, Patrick; Gengembre, Cyril; Fourmentin, Marc; Locoge, Nadine

2016-11-01

Summertime atmospheric dynamics in the coastal zone of the industrialized Dunkerque agglomeration in northern France was characterized by a cluster analysis of back trajectories in the context of pollution transport. The MESO-NH atmospheric model was used to simulate the local dynamics at multiple scales with horizontal resolution down to 500 m, and for the online calculation of the Lagrangian backward trajectories with 30-min temporal resolution. Airmass transport was performed along six principal pathways obtained by the weighted k-means clustering technique. Four of these centroids corresponded to a range of wind speeds over the English Channel: two for wind directions from the north-east and two from the south-west. Another pathway corresponded to a south-westerly continental transport. The backward trajectories of the largest and most dispersed sixth cluster contained low wind speeds, including sea-breeze circulations. Based on analyses of meteorological data and pollution measurements, the principal atmospheric pathways were related to local air-contamination events. Continuous air quality and meteorological data were collected during the Benzene-Toluene-Ethylbenzene-Xylene 2006 campaign. The sites of the pollution measurements served as the endpoints for the backward trajectories. Pollutant transport pathways corresponding to the highest air contamination were defined.

Atmospheric Mining in the Outer Solar System: Outer Planet Orbital Transfer and Lander Analyses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Palaszewski, Bryan

2016-01-01

Atmospheric mining in the outer solar system has been investigated as a means of fuel production for high energy propulsion and power. Fusion fuels such as Helium 3 (3He) and deuterium can be wrested from the atmospheres of Uranus and Neptune and either returned to Earth or used in-situ for energy production. Helium 3 and deuterium were the primary gases of interest with hydrogen being the primary propellant for nuclear thermal solid core and gas core rocket-based atmospheric flight. A series of analyses were undertaken to investigate resource capturing aspects of atmospheric mining in the outer solar system. This included the gas capturing rate, storage options, and different methods of direct use of the captured gases. While capturing 3He, large amounts of hydrogen and 4He are produced. Analyses of orbital transfer vehicles (OTVs), landers, and the issues with in-situ resource utilization (ISRU) mining factories are included. Preliminary observations are presented on near-optimal selections of moon base orbital locations, OTV power levels, and OTV and lander rendezvous points. For analyses of round trip OTV flights from Uranus to Miranda or Titania, a 10-Megawatt electric (MWe) OTV power level and a 200-metric ton (MT) lander payload were selected based on a relative short OTV trip time and minimization of the number of lander flights. A similar optimum power level is suggested for OTVs flying from low orbit around Neptune to Thalassa or Triton. Several moon base sites at Uranus and Neptune and the OTV requirements to support them are also addressed.

Atmospheric Mining in the Outer Solar System: Outer Planet Orbital Transfer and Lander Analyses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Palaszewski, Bryan

2016-01-01

Atmospheric mining in the outer solar system has been investigated as a means of fuel production for high energy propulsion and power. Fusion fuels such as Helium 3 (3He) and deuterium can be wrested from the atmospheres of Uranus and Neptune and either returned to Earth or used in-situ for energy production. Helium 3 and deuterium were the primary gases of interest with hydrogen being the primary propellant for nuclear thermal solid core and gas core rocket-based atmospheric flight. A series of analyses were undertaken to investigate resource capturing aspects of atmospheric mining in the outer solar system. This included the gas capturing rate, storage options, and different methods of direct use of the captured gases. While capturing 3He, large amounts of hydrogen and 4He are produced. Analyses of orbital transfer vehicles (OTVs), landers, and the issues with in-situ resource utilization (ISRU) mining factories are included. Preliminary observations are presented on near-optimal selections of moon base orbital locations, OTV power levels, and OTV and lander rendezvous points. For analyses of round trip OTV flights from Uranus to Miranda or Titania, a 10- Megawatt electric (MWe) OTV power level and a 200 metricton (MT) lander payload were selected based on a relative short OTV trip time and minimization of the number of lander flights. A similar optimum power level is suggested for OTVs flying from low orbit around Neptune to Thalassa or Triton. Several moon base sites at Uranus and Neptune and the OTV requirements to support them are also addressed.

Non-local Thermodynamic Equilibrium Abundance Analyses of the Extreme Helium Stars V652 Her and HD 144941

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pandey, Gajendra; Lambert, David L., E-mail: pandey@iiap.res.in, E-mail: dll@astro.as.utexas.edu

Optical high-resolution spectra of V652 Her and HD 144941, the two extreme helium stars with exceptionally low C/He ratios, have been subjected to a non-LTE abundance analysis using the tools TLUSTY and SYNSPEC. Defining atmospheric parameters were obtained from a grid of non-LTE atmospheres and a variety of spectroscopic indicators including He i and He ii line profiles, and the ionization equilibrium of ion pairs such as C ii/C iii and N ii/N iii. The various indicators provide a consistent set of atmospheric parameters: T {sub eff} = 25,000 ± 300 K, log g = 3.10 ± 0.12(cgs), and ξmore » = 13 ± 2 km s{sup −1} are provided for V652 Her, and T {sub eff} = 22,000 ± 600 K, log g = 3.45 ± 0.15 (cgs), and ξ = 10 km s{sup −1} are provided for HD 144941. In contrast to the non-LTE analyses, the LTE analyses—LTE atmospheres and an LTE line analysis—with the available indicators do not provide a consistent set of atmospheric parameters. The principal non-LTE effect on the elemental abundances is on the neon abundance. It is generally considered that these extreme helium stars with their very low C/He ratio result from the merger of two helium white dwarfs. Indeed, the derived composition of V652 Her is in excellent agreement with predictions by Zhang and Jeffery, who model the slow merger of helium white dwarfs; a slow merger results in the merged star having the composition of the accreted white dwarf. In the case of HD 144941, which appears to have evolved from metal-poor stars, a slow merger is incompatible with the observed composition but variations of the merger rate may account for the observed composition. More detailed theoretical studies of the merger of a pair of helium white dwarfs are to be encouraged.« less

Mercury in soils, lakes, and fish in Voyageurs National Park (Minnesota): Importance of atmospheric deposition and ecosystem factors

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wiener, J.G.; Knights, B.C.; Sandheinrich, M.B.; Jeremiason, Jeffrey D.; Brigham, M.E.; Engstrom, D.R.; Woodruff, L.G.; Cannon, W.F.; Balogh, S.J.

2006-01-01

Concentrations of methylmercury in game fish from many interior lakes in Voyageurs National Park (MN, U.S.A.) substantially exceed criteria for the protection of human health. We assessed the importance of atmospheric and geologic sources of mercury to interior lakes and watersheds within the Park and identified ecosystem factors associated with variation in methylmercury contamination of lacustrine food webs. Geologic sources of mercury were small, based on analyses of underlying bedrock and C-horizon soils, and nearly all mercury in the O- and A-horizon soils was derived from atmospheric deposition. Analyses of dated sediment cores from five lakes showed that most (63% ?? 13%) of the mercury accumulated in lake sediments during the 1900s was from anthropogenic sources. Contamination of food webs was assessed by analysis of whole, 1-year-old yellow perch (Perca flavescens), a regionally important prey fish. The concentrations of total mercury in yellow perch and of methylmercury in lake water varied substantially among lakes, reflecting the influence of ecosystem processes and variables that affect the microbial production and abundance of methylmercury. Models developed with the information-theoretic approach (Akaike Information Criteria) identified lake water pH, dissolved sulfate, and total organic carbon (an indicator of wetland influence) as factors influencing methylmercury concentrations in lake water and fish. We conclude that nearly all of the mercury in fish in this seemingly pristine landscape was derived from atmospheric deposition, that most of this bioaccumulated mercury was from anthropogenic sources, and that both watershed and lacustrine factors exert important controls on the bioaccumulation of methylmercury. ?? 2006 American Chemical Society.

A study of the middle atmospheric thermal structure over western India: Satellite data and comparisons with models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, Som; Kumar, Prashant; Vaishnav, Rajesh; Jethva, Chintan; Beig, G.

2017-12-01

Long term variations of the middle atmospheric thermal structure in the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere (20-90 km) have been studied over Ahmedabad (23.1°N, 72.3°E, 55 m amsl), India using SABER (Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry) onboard TIMED (Thermosphere, Ionosphere, Mesosphere, Energetics and Dynamics) observations during year 2002 to year 2014. For the same period, three different atmospheric models show over-estimation of temperature (∼10 K) near the stratopause and in the upper mesosphere, and a signature of under-estimation is seen above mesopause when compared against SABER measured temperature profiles. Estimation of monthly temperature anomalies reveals a semiannual and ter-annual oscillation moving downward from the mesosphere to the stratosphere during January to December. Moreover, Lomb Scargle periodogram (LSP) and Wavelet transform techniques are employed to characterize the semi-annual, annual and quasi-biennial oscillations to diagnose the wave dynamics in the stratosphere-mesosphere system. Results suggested that semi-annual, annual and quasi-biennial oscillations are exist in stratosphere, whereas, semi-annual and annual oscillations are observed in mesosphere. In lower mesosphere, LSP analyses revealed conspicuous absence of annual oscillations in altitude range of ∼55-65 km, and semi-annual oscillations are not existing in 35-45 km. Four monthly oscillations are also reported in the altitude range of about 45-65 km. The temporal localization of oscillations using wavelet analysis shows strong annual oscillation during year 2004-2006 and 2009-2011.

Water in exoplanets.

PubMed

Tinetti, Giovanna; Tennyson, Jonathan; Griffith, Caitlin A; Waldmann, Ingo

2012-06-13

Exoplanets--planets orbiting around stars other than our own Sun--appear to be common. Significant research effort is now focused on the observation and characterization of exoplanet atmospheres. Species such as water vapour, methane, carbon monoxide and carbon dioxide have been observed in a handful of hot, giant, gaseous planets, but cooler, smaller planets such as Gliese 1214b are now analysable with current telescopes. Water is the key chemical dictating habitability. The current observations of water in exoplanets from both space and the ground are reviewed. Controversies surrounding the interpretation of these observations are discussed. Detailed consideration of available radiative transfer models and linelists are used to analyse these differences in interpretation. Models suggest that there is a clear need for data on the pressure broadening of water transitions by H(2) at high temperatures. The reported detections of water appear to be robust, although final confirmation will have to await the better quality observational data provided by currently planned dedicated space missions.

Dayside temperatures in the Venus upper atmosphere from Venus Express/VIRTIS nadir measurements at 4.3 μm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peralta, J.; López-Valverde, M. A.; Gilli, G.; Piccialli, A.

2016-01-01

In this work, we analysed nadir observations of atmospheric infrared emissions carried out by VIRTIS, a high-resolution spectrometer on board the European spacecraft Venus Express. We focused on the ro-vibrational band of CO2 at 4.3 μm on the dayside, whose fluorescence originates in the Venus upper mesosphere and above. This is the first time that a systematic sounding of these non-local thermodynamic equilibrium (NLTE) emissions has been carried out in Venus using this geometry. As many as 143,218 spectra have been analysed on the dayside during the period 14/05/2006 to 14/09/2009. We designed an inversion method to obtain the atmospheric temperature from these non-thermal observations, including a NLTE line-by-line forward model and a pre-computed set of spectra for a set of thermal structures and illumination conditions. Our measurements sound a broad region of the upper mesosphere and lower thermosphere of Venus ranging from 10-2-10-5 mb (which in the Venus International Reference Atmosphere, VIRA, is approximately 100-150 km during the daytime) and show a maximum around 195 ± 10 K in the subsolar region, decreasing with latitude and local time towards the terminator. This is in qualitative agreement with predictions by a Venus Thermospheric General Circulation Model (VTGCM) after a proper averaging of altitudes for meaningful comparisons, although our temperatures are colder than the model by about 25 K throughout. We estimate a thermal gradient of about 35 K between the subsolar and antisolar points when comparing our data with nightside temperatures measured at similar altitudes by SPICAV, another instrument on Venus Express (VEx). Our data show a stable temperature structure through five years of measurements, but we also found episodes of strong heating/cooling to occur in the subsolar region of less than two days. The table with numerical data and averaged temperatures displayed in Fig. 7A provided as a CSV data file is only available at the CDS via anonymous ftp to http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr (ftp://130.79.128.5) or via http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr/viz-bin/qcat?J/A+A/585/A53

Impact of the North Atlantic dipole on climate changes over Eurasia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Serykh, Ilya

2017-04-01

Hydrophysical and meteorological characteristics of negative (1948-1976, 1999-2015) and positive (1977-1998) phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) / Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) in the North Atlantic and Eurasia are constructed and investigated. Specifically, the near-surface temperature, sea-level atmospheric pressure, wind speed, heat content of the upper 700 m ocean layer, water temperature and salinity at various depths, the latent and sensible heat fluxes from the ocean to the atmosphere are analyzed. The fields obtained from different sources (20thC_ReanV2c, ERA-20C, JRA-55, NCEP/NCAR, HadCRUT4, HadSLP2, NODC, Ishii, SODA, OAFlux, HadSST3, COBE2, ERSSTv4) are in good agreement and complement each other. This gives important information about the hydrometeorological conditions in the region under study. Analysis of these data has shown that in the upper 1000 m North Atlantic layer there is a thermal dipole which can be interpreted as an oceanic analog of the atmospheric North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). An index of the North Atlantic Dipole (NAD) as the difference between the mean heat contents in the upper 700 m oceanic layer between the regions (50°-70° N; 60°-10° W) and (20°-40° N; 80°-30° W) is proposed. A possible physical mechanism of the internal oscillations with a quasi-60-year period in the North Atlantics-Eurasia system of ocean-atmosphere interactions is discussed. Dipole spatial structure from observations datasets and re-analyses were compared with the results of the Historical Experiment from the climate models of the CMIP5 project. It is found that several climate models reproduce dipole spatial structure of the near-surface temperature and sea level pressure anomalies similarly to these fields in the re-analyses considered. However, the phase diagrams of the gradient of near-surface temperature and sea level pressure between the Azores High and Island Low from climate models do not separate on subsets as the observation diagrams. Keeping in mind the prognostic goals we supposed that this result could be essential for revealing the relationships between the climatic parameters of the Eurasian continent and the thermodynamic processes in the specific areas of the North Atlantic Ocean.

Lifecycle of South America Monsoon System Simulated by the Regional Eta Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cavalcanti, I. F.; Raia, A.; Chou, S. C.; Silveira, V. P.

2017-12-01

The SAMS comprises a set of features over South America that includes the rainy season over large areas of the continent, typical atmospheric circulation and humidity fluxes characteristics and occurrences of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone. The onset and duration of these characteristics are important to several economic sectors, such as Agriculture and Hydropower. Droughts during the summer season, as the 2014 and 2015 cases, or onset delays can affect these sectors. Predictions of the SAMS onset and duration can contribute to management actions. The Eta Regional model represents well the precipitation difference between summer and winter and the related atmospheric circulation differences over South America. Therefore the objective of this study is to analyze the lifecycle of the SAMS simulated by the Eta model to evaluate first the behaviour compared to observations and to further use as a tool to prediction of onset and duration. There are several methods to analyze the lifecycle of the monsoon and here the criterion is based on vertical integrated zonal moisture flux in the monsoon core, which is located at southern Amazonia. The climate simulation was performed with the Eta model using the HadGEM2_ES model, from CMIP5, as lateral boundary condition. The period of analyses is 1980 to 2005. The model results are compared to ERA-Interim reanalysis and GPCP precipitation dataset. The results show the interannual lifecycles and the average for the whole period, as well as the annual cycle of zonal wind, precipitation, temperature and specific humidity. Spatial maps of humidity convergence, atmospheric circulation at low and high levels indicate the changes during the onset and demise.

IR spectral analysis for the diagnostics of crust earthquake precursors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Umarkhodgaev, R. M.; Liperovsky, V. A.; Mikhailin, V. V.; Meister, C.-V.; Naumov, D. Ju

2012-04-01

In regions of future earthquakes, a few days before the seismic shock, the emanation of radon and hydrogen is being observed, which causes clouds of increased ionisation in the atmosphere. In the present work the possible diagnostics of these clouds using infrared (IR) spectroscopy is considered, which may be important and useful for the general geophysical system of earthquake prediction and the observation of industrial emissions of radioactive materials into the atmosphere. Some possible physical processes are analysed, which cause, under the condition of additional ionisation in a pre-breakdown electrical field, emissions in the IR interval. In doing so, the transparency region of the IR spectrum at wavelengths of 7-15 μm is taken into account. This transparency region corresponds to spectral lines of small atmospheric constituents like CH4, CO2, N2O, NO2, NO, and O3. The possible intensities of the IR emissions observable in laboratories and in nature are estimated. The acceleration process of the electrons in the pre-breakdown electrical field before its adhesion to the molecules is analysed. The laboratory equipment for the investigation of the IR absorption spectrum is constructed for the cases of normal and decreased atmospheric pressures. The syntheses of ozone and nitrous oxides are performed in the barrier discharge. It is studied if the products of the syntheses may be used to model atmospheric processes where these components take part. Spectra of products of the syntheses in the wavelength region of 2-10 μm are observed and analysed. A device is created for the syntheses and accumulation of nitrous oxides. Experiments to observe the IR-spectra of ozone and nitrous oxides during the syntheses and during the further evolution of these molecules are performed. For the earthquake prediction, practically, the investigation of emission spectra is most important, but during the laboratory experiments, the radiation of the excited molecules is shifted by a time interval which is larger than the duration of the barrier discharge and lasts until a noticeable, measurable heating of the chamber occurs. Thus the modification of the laboratory equipment to measure emission spectra is a special task. Besides the working volume of the chamber has to be enlarged considerably.

Studies of the Earth Energy Budget and Water Cycle Using Satellite Observations and Model Analyses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Campbell, G. G.; VonderHarr, T. H.; Randel, D. L.; Kidder, S. Q.

1997-01-01

During this research period we have utilized the ERBE data set in comparisons to surface properties and water vapor observations in the atmosphere. A relationship between cloudiness and surface temperature anomalies was found. This same relationship was found in a general circulation model, verifying the model. The attempt to construct a homogeneous time series from Nimbus 6, Nimbus 7 and ERBE data is not complete because we are still waiting for the ERBE reanalysis to be completed. It will be difficult to merge the Nimbus 6 data in because its observations occurred when the average weather was different than the other periods, so regression adjustments are not effective.

Why Is Rainfall Error Analysis Requisite for Data Assimilation and Climate Modeling?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hou, Arthur Y.; Zhang, Sara Q.

2004-01-01

Given the large temporal and spatial variability of precipitation processes, errors in rainfall observations are difficult to quantify yet crucial to making effective use of rainfall data for improving atmospheric analysis, weather forecasting, and climate modeling. We highlight the need for developing a quantitative understanding of systematic and random errors in precipitation observations by examining explicit examples of how each type of errors can affect forecasts and analyses in global data assimilation. We characterize the error information needed from the precipitation measurement community and how it may be used to improve data usage within the general framework of analysis techniques, as well as accuracy requirements from the perspective of climate modeling and global data assimilation.

Convective transport in ATM simulations and its relation to the atmospheric stability conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kusmierczyk-Michulec, Jolanta

2017-04-01

The International Monitoring System (IMS) developed by the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) is a global system of monitoring stations, using four complementary technologies: seismic, hydroacoustic, infrasound and radionuclide. Data from all stations, belonging to IMS, are collected and transmitted to the International Data Centre (IDC) in Vienna, Austria. The radionuclide network comprises 80 stations, of which more than 60 are certified. The aim of radionuclide stations is a global monitoring of radioactive aerosols and radioactive noble gases, in particular xenon isotopes, supported by the atmospheric transport modeling (ATM). One of the important noble gases, monitored on a daily basis, is radioxenon. It can be produced either during a nuclear explosion with a high fission yield, and thus be considered as an important tracer to prove the nuclear character of an explosion, or be emitted from nuclear power plants (NPPs) or from isotope production facilities (IPFs). To investigate the transport of xenon emissions, the Provisional Technical Secretariat (PTS) operates an Atmospheric Transport Modelling (ATM) system based on the Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Model FLEXPART. To address the question whether including the convective transport in ATM simulations will change the results significantly, the differences between the outputs with the convective transport turned off and turned on, were computed and further investigated taking into account the atmospheric stability conditions. For that purpose series of 14 days forward simulations, with convective transport and without it, released daily in the period January 2011 to February 2012, were analysed. The release point was at the ANSTO facility in Australia. The unique opportunity of having access to both daily emission values for ANSTO as well as measured Xe-133 activity concentration (AC) values at the IMS stations, gave a chance to validate the simulations.

Regional variability of sea level change using a global ocean model.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lombard, A.; Garric, G.; Cazenave, A.; Penduff, T.; Molines, J.

2007-12-01

We analyse different runs of a global eddy-permitting (1/4 degree) ocean model driven by atmospheric forcing to evaluate regional variability of sea level change over 1993-2001, 1998-2006 and over the long period 1958-2004. No data assimilation is performed in the model, contrarily to previous similar studies (Carton et al., 2005; Wunsch et al., 2007; Koehl and Stammer, 2007). We compare the model-based regional sea level trend patterns with the one deduced from satellite altimetry data. We examine respective contributions of steric and bottom pressure changes to total regional sea level changes. For the steric component, we analyze separately the contributions of temperature and salinity changes as well as upper and lower ocean contributions.

Coordinated In Situ Nanosims Analyses of H-C-O Isotopes in ALH 84001 Carbonates

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Usui, T.; Alexander, C. M. O'D.; Wang, J.; Simon, J. I.; Jones, J. H.

2016-01-01

The surface geology and geomorphology of Mars indicate that it was once warm enough to maintain a large body of liquid water on its surface, though such a warm environment might have been transient. This study reports the hydrogen, carbon, and oxygen isotope compositions of the ancient atmosphere/hydrosphere of Mars based on in situ ion microprobe analyses of approximately 4 Ga-old carbonates in Allan Hills (ALH) 84001. The ALH 84001 carbonates are the most promising targets because they are thought to have formed from fluid that was closely associated with the Noachian atmosphere. While there are a number of carbon and oxygen isotope studies of the ALH 84001 carbonates, in situ hydrogen isotope analyses of these carbonates are limited and were reported more than a decade ago. Well-documented coordinated in situ analyses of carbon, oxygen and hydrogen isotopes provide an internally consistent dataset that can be used to constrain the nature of the Noachian atmosphere/hydrosphere and may eventually shed light on the hypothesis of ancient watery Mars.

Empirical-statistical downscaling of reanalysis data to high-resolution air temperature and specific humidity above a glacier surface (Cordillera Blanca, Peru)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hofer, Marlis; MöLg, Thomas; Marzeion, Ben; Kaser, Georg

2010-06-01

Recently initiated observation networks in the Cordillera Blanca (Peru) provide temporally high-resolution, yet short-term, atmospheric data. The aim of this study is to extend the existing time series into the past. We present an empirical-statistical downscaling (ESD) model that links 6-hourly National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalysis data to air temperature and specific humidity, measured at the tropical glacier Artesonraju (northern Cordillera Blanca). The ESD modeling procedure includes combined empirical orthogonal function and multiple regression analyses and a double cross-validation scheme for model evaluation. Apart from the selection of predictor fields, the modeling procedure is automated and does not include subjective choices. We assess the ESD model sensitivity to the predictor choice using both single-field and mixed-field predictors. Statistical transfer functions are derived individually for different months and times of day. The forecast skill largely depends on month and time of day, ranging from 0 to 0.8. The mixed-field predictors perform better than the single-field predictors. The ESD model shows added value, at all time scales, against simpler reference models (e.g., the direct use of reanalysis grid point values). The ESD model forecast 1960-2008 clearly reflects interannual variability related to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation but is sensitive to the chosen predictor type.

A delay differential model of ENSO variability: parametric instability and the distribution of extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghil, M.; Zaliapin, I.; Thompson, S.

2008-05-01

We consider a delay differential equation (DDE) model for El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability. The model combines two key mechanisms that participate in ENSO dynamics: delayed negative feedback and seasonal forcing. We perform stability analyses of the model in the three-dimensional space of its physically relevant parameters. Our results illustrate the role of these three parameters: strength of seasonal forcing b, atmosphere-ocean coupling κ, and propagation period τ of oceanic waves across the Tropical Pacific. Two regimes of variability, stable and unstable, are separated by a sharp neutral curve in the (b, τ) plane at constant κ. The detailed structure of the neutral curve becomes very irregular and possibly fractal, while individual trajectories within the unstable region become highly complex and possibly chaotic, as the atmosphere-ocean coupling κ increases. In the unstable regime, spontaneous transitions occur in the mean "temperature" (i.e., thermocline depth), period, and extreme annual values, for purely periodic, seasonal forcing. The model reproduces the Devil's bleachers characterizing other ENSO models, such as nonlinear, coupled systems of partial differential equations; some of the features of this behavior have been documented in general circulation models, as well as in observations. We expect, therefore, similar behavior in much more detailed and realistic models, where it is harder to describe its causes as completely.

Characterizing moisture sources over Mediterranean Basin in a Regional Earth System Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Batibeniz, F.; Ashfaq, M.; Turuncoglu, U. U.; Onol, B.

2017-12-01

We investigate precipitation dynamics over the Mediterranean region using Reanalysis data and a coupled Regional Earth System Model (RegESM). The RegESM model is run in coupled (RegCM4 coupled with ROMS) and uncoupled mode (atmosphere -land only) for 1979-2013 period using Era-Interim Reanalysis. RegESM incorporates atmosphere, ocean, river routing and wave components and thereby is better capable to improve the understanding of coupled climate system processes. We compare two model configurations to investigate the role of air sea interaction in the simulation of key processes that govern precipitation variability over the study region. Seasonal trend analyses have been performed to understand the changes in precipitation tendencies over the 35 years of the simulation period and observations. Additionally, two moisture flux analyses (Eulerian and Lagrangian) have been implemented to understand the role of various oceanic and terrestrial evaporative sources in seasonal precipitation distribution and long-term trends over the Mediterranean basin. In Eulerian approach, we use 7 different terrestrial regions to identify sources and sinks using the inflows and outflows from their boundaries. In Lagrangian approach, we divide the whole region in 9 parts to backtrack moisture coming from each region to the core Mediterranean region at intra-seasonal time-scales. Variation in the moisture contribution from each source region is investigated to quantify its role in the observed precipitation variability particularly during the extreme wet and dry years. Overall, our results highlight the importance of air-sea interaction in precipitation distribution at intra-seasonal to inter-decadal timescales over Mediterranean region as coupled RegESM configuration is able to improve of many limitations that are found in the standalone configuration.

A Possible Cause for Recent Decadal Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Decline

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Latif, Mojib; Park, Taewook; Park, Wonsun

2017-04-01

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a major oceanic current system with widespread climate impacts. AMOC influences have been discussed among others with regard to Atlantic hurricane activity, regional sea level variability, and surface air temperature and precipitation changes on land areas adjacent to the North Atlantic Ocean. Most climate models project significant AMOC slowing during the 21st century, if atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise unabatedly. Recently, a marked decadal decline in AMOC strength has been observed, which was followed by strongly reduced oceanic poleward heat transport and record low sea surface temperature in parts of the North Atlantic. Here, we provide evidence from observations, re-analyses and climate models that the AMOC decline was due to the combined action of the North Atlantic Oscillation and East Atlantic Pattern, the two leading modes of North Atlantic atmospheric surface pressure variability, which prior to the decline both transitioned into their negative phases. This change in atmospheric circulation diminished oceanic heat loss over the Labrador Sea and forced ocean circulation changes lowering upper ocean salinity transport into that region. As a consequence, Labrador Sea deep convection weakened, which eventually slowed the AMOC. This study suggests a new mechanism for decadal AMOC variability, which is important to multiyear climate predictability and climate change detection in the North Atlantic sector.

Albedo of Surface CO2 Deposits in Mars' Residual South Polar Cap

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

James, P. B.; Wolff, M. J.; Bonev, B.

2014-12-01

The albedo of surface CO2 deposits in the Residual South Polar Cap (RSPC) of Mars controls their net condensation / sublimation over a martian year and is therefore a crucial parameter in determining RSPC stability. The albedo used in previous analyses is obtained by dividing I/F, determined from radiometrically calibrated imaging data, by the cosine of the incidence angle. Because of atmospheric aerosols, the albedo calculated from I/F above the atmosphere is not the surface albedo that enters into stability considerations. In order to determine the surface albedo, we interpolate optical depths determined from CRISM EPF measurements to provide estimates of the dust and ice opacities over the RSPC (Wolff et al., 2009) and use these to determine the actual surface albedos from MARCI images using the radiative transport program DISORT (Stamnes et al., 1988). Assuming that dust is the only contributor to atmospheric opacity, the retrieved surface albedos for the longer wavelength MARCI filters in MY 28 and 29 are found to be consistent despite very different dust opacities in the two years (James et al., 2014). However, this model fails to reproduce the short wavelength behavior in early summer. We consider possible modifications of the dust only model that could explain the discrepancy.

Studying Weather and Climate Using Atmospheric Retrospective Analyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bosilovich, M. G.

2014-12-01

Over the last 35 years, tremendous amounts of satellite observations of the Earth's atmosphere have been collected along side the much longer and diverse record of in situ measurements. The satellite data records have disparate qualities, structure and uncertainty which make comparing weather from the 80s and 2000s a challenging prospect. Likewise, in-situ data records lack complete coverage of the earth in both space and time. Atmospheric reanalyses use the observations with numerical models and data assimilation to produce continuous and consistent weather data records for periods longer than decades. The result is a simplified data format with a relatively straightforward learning curve that includes many more variables available (through the modeling component of the system), but driven by a full suite of observational data. The simplified data format allows introduction into weather and climate data analysis. Some examples are provided from undergraduate meteorology program internship projects. We will present the students progression through the projects from their initial understanding and competencies to some final results and the skills learned along the way. Reanalyses are a leading research tool in weather and climate, but can also provide an introductory experience as well, allowing students to develop an understanding of the physical system while learning basic programming and analysis skills.

Atmospheric Convective Organization: Self-Organized Criticality or Homeostasis?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yano, Jun-Ichi

2015-04-01

Atmospheric convection has a tendency organized on a hierarchy of scales ranging from the mesoscale to the planetary scales, with the latter especially manifested by the Madden-Julian oscillation. The present talk examines two major possible mechanisms of self-organization identified in wider literature from a phenomenological thermodynamic point of view by analysing a planetary-scale cloud-resolving model simulation. The first mechanism is self-organized criticality. A saturation tendency of precipitation rate with the increasing column-integrated water, reminiscence of critical phenomena, indicates self-organized criticality. The second is a self-regulation mechanism that is known as homeostasis in biology. A thermodynamic argument suggests that such self-regulation maintains the column-integrated water below a threshold by increasing the precipitation rate. Previous analyses of both observational data as well as cloud-resolving model (CRM) experiments give mixed results. A satellite data analysis suggests self-organized criticality. Some observational data as well as CRM experiments support homeostasis. Other analyses point to a combination of these two interpretations. In this study, a CRM experiment over a planetary-scale domain with a constant sea-surface temperature is analyzed. This analysis shows that the relation between the column-integrated total water and precipitation suggests self-organized criticality, whereas the one between the column-integrated water vapor and precipitation suggests homeostasis. The concurrent presence of these two mechanisms are further elaborated by detailed statistical and budget analyses. These statistics are scale invariant, reflecting a spatial scaling of precipitation processes. These self-organization mechanisms are most likely be best theoretically understood by the energy cycle of the convective systems consisting of the kinetic energy and the cloud-work function. The author has already investigated the behavior of this cycle system under a zero-dimensional configuration. Preliminary simulations of this cycle system over a two-dimensional domain will be presented.

The SPARC Intercomparison of Middle Atmosphere Climatologies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Randel, William; Fleming, Eric; Geller, Marvin; Gelman, Mel; Hamilton, Kevin; Karoly, David; Ortland, Dave; Pawson, Steve; Swinbank, Richard; Udelhofen, Petra

2003-01-01

Our current confidence in 'observed' climatological winds and temperatures in the middle atmosphere (over altitudes approx. 10-80 km) is assessed by detailed intercomparisons of contemporary and historic data sets. These data sets include global meteorological analyses and assimilations, climatologies derived from research satellite measurements, and historical reference atmosphere circulation statistics. We also include comparisons with historical rocketsonde wind and temperature data, and with more recent lidar temperature measurements. The comparisons focus on a few basic circulation statistics, such as temperature, zonal wind, and eddy flux statistics. Special attention is focused on tropical winds and temperatures, where large differences exist among separate analyses. Assimilated data sets provide the most realistic tropical variability, but substantial differences exist among current schemes.

Preliminary Design and Analysis of the ARES Atmospheric Flight Vehicle Thermal Control System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gasbarre, J. F.; Dillman, R. A.

2003-01-01

The Aerial Regional-scale Environmental Survey (ARES) is a proposed 2007 Mars Scout Mission that will be the first mission to deploy an atmospheric flight vehicle (AFV) on another planet. This paper will describe the preliminary design and analysis of the AFV thermal control system for its flight through the Martian atmosphere and also present other analyses broadening the scope of that design to include other phases of the ARES mission. Initial analyses are discussed and results of trade studies are presented which detail the design process for AFV thermal control. Finally, results of the most recent AFV thermal analysis are shown and the plans for future work are discussed.

Verification of mesoscale objective analyses of VAS and rawinsode data using the March 1982 AVE/VAS special network data. [Atmospheric Variability Experiment/Visible-infrared spin-scan radiometer Atmospheric Sounder

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Doyle, James D.; Warner, Thomas T.

1988-01-01

Various combinations of VAS (Visible and Infrared Spin Scan Radiometer Atmospheric Sounder) data, conventional rawinsonde data, and gridded data from the National Weather Service's (NWS) global analysis, were used in successive-correction and variational objective-analysis procedures. Analyses are produced for 0000 GMT 7 March 1982, when the VAS sounding distribution was not greatly limited by the existence of cloud cover. The successive-correction (SC) Procedure was used with VAS data alone, rawinsonde data alone, and both VAS and rawinsonde data. Variational techniques were applied in three ways. Each of these techniques was discussed.

MONTE CARLO SIMULATION OF METASTABLE OXYGEN PHOTOCHEMISTRY IN COMETARY ATMOSPHERES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bisikalo, D. V.; Shematovich, V. I.; Gérard, J.-C.

2015-01-01

Cometary atmospheres are produced by the outgassing of material, mainly H{sub 2}O, CO, and CO{sub 2} from the nucleus of the comet under the energy input from the Sun. Subsequent photochemical processes lead to the production of other species generally absent from the nucleus, such as OH. Although all comets are different, they all have a highly rarefied atmosphere, which is an ideal environment for nonthermal photochemical processes to take place and influence the detailed state of the atmosphere. We develop a Monte Carlo model of the coma photochemistry. We compute the energy distribution functions (EDF) of the metastable O({supmore » 1}D) and O({sup 1}S) species and obtain the red (630 nm) and green (557.7 nm) spectral line shapes of the full coma, consistent with the computed EDFs and the expansion velocity. We show that both species have a severely non-Maxwellian EDF, that results in broad spectral lines and the suprathermal broadening dominates due to the expansion motion. We apply our model to the atmosphere of comet C/1996 B2 (Hyakutake) and 103P/Hartley 2. The computed width of the green line, expressed in terms of speed, is lower than that of the red line. This result is comparable to previous theoretical analyses, but in disagreement with observations. We explain that the spectral line shape does not only depend on the exothermicity of the photochemical production mechanisms, but also on thermalization, due to elastic collisions, reducing the width of the emission line coming from the O({sup 1}D) level, which has a longer lifetime.« less

Meteorological Situations Favouring the Development of Dust Plumes over Iceland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schepanski, K.; Szodry, K.

2017-12-01

The knowledge on mineral dust emitted at high latitudes is limited, but its impact on the polar environments is divers. Within a warming climate, dust emitted from regions in cold climates is expected to increase due to the retreat of the ice sheet and increasing melting rates. Therefore, and for its extensive impacts on different aspects of the climate system, a better understanding of the atmospheric dust life-cycle at high latitudes/cold climates in general, and the spatio-temporal distribution of dust sources in particular, are essential. At high-latitudes, glacio-fluvial sediments as found on river flood plains e.g. supplied by glaciers are prone to wind erosion when dry and bare. In case of the occurrence of strong winds, sediments are blown out and dust plumes develop. As dust uplift is controlled by soil surface characteristics, the availability of suitable sediments, and atmospheric conditions, an interannual variability in dust source activity is expected. We investigated atmospheric circulation patterns that favour the development of dust plumes over Iceland, which presents a well-known dust source at high latitudes. Using the atmosphere model COSMO (COnsortium for Small-scale MOdeling), we analysed the wind speed distribution over the Iceland region for identified and documented dust cases. As one outcome of the study, the position of the Icelandic low, the anticyclones located over Northern Europe, and the resulting pressure gradients are of particular relevance. The interaction of the synoptic-scale winds with the Icelandic orography may locally enhance the wind speeds and thus foster local dust emission. Results from this study suggest that the atmospheric circulation determined by the pressure pattern is of particular relevance for the formation of dust plumes entering the North Atlantic.

Human population and atmospheric carbon dioxide growth dynamics: Diagnostics for the future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hüsler, A. D.; Sornette, D.

2014-10-01

We analyze the growth rates of human population and of atmospheric carbon dioxide by comparing the relative merits of two benchmark models, the exponential law and the finite-time-singular (FTS) power law. The later results from positive feedbacks, either direct or mediated by other dynamical variables, as shown in our presentation of a simple endogenous macroeconomic dynamical growth model describing the growth dynamics of coupled processes involving human population (labor in economic terms), capital and technology (proxies by CO2 emissions). Human population in the context of our energy intensive economies constitutes arguably the most important underlying driving variable of the content of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Using some of the best databases available, we perform empirical analyses confirming that the human population on Earth has been growing super-exponentially until the mid-1960s, followed by a decelerated sub-exponential growth, with a tendency to plateau at just an exponential growth in the last decade with an average growth rate of 1.0% per year. In contrast, we find that the content of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has continued to accelerate super-exponentially until 1990, with a transition to a progressive deceleration since then, with an average growth rate of approximately 2% per year in the last decade. To go back to CO2 atmosphere contents equal to or smaller than the level of 1990 as has been the broadly advertised goals of international treaties since 1990 requires herculean changes: from a dynamical point of view, the approximately exponential growth must not only turn to negative acceleration but also negative velocity to reverse the trend.

Atmospheric Pressure and Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Rupture: Results From a Time Series Analysis and Case-Crossover Study.

PubMed

Penning de Vries, Bas B L; Kolkert, Joé L P; Meerwaldt, Robbert; Groenwold, Rolf H H

2017-10-01

Associations between atmospheric pressure and abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) rupture risk have been reported, but empirical evidence is inconclusive and largely derived from studies that did not account for possible nonlinearity, seasonality, and confounding by temperature. Associations between atmospheric pressure and AAA rupture risk were investigated using local meteorological data and a case series of 358 patients admitted to hospital for ruptured AAA during the study period, January 2002 to December 2012. Two analyses were performed-a time series analysis and a case-crossover study. Results from the 2 analyses were similar; neither the time series analysis nor the case-crossover study showed a significant association between atmospheric pressure ( P = .627 and P = .625, respectively, for mean daily atmospheric pressure) or atmospheric pressure variation ( P = .464 and P = .816, respectively, for 24-hour change in mean daily atmospheric pressure) and AAA rupture risk. This study failed to support claims that atmospheric pressure causally affects AAA rupture risk. In interpreting our results, one should be aware that the range of atmospheric pressure observed in this study is not representative of the atmospheric pressure to which patients with AAA may be exposed, for example, during air travel or travel to high altitudes in the mountains. Making firm claims regarding these conditions in relation to AAA rupture risk is difficult at best. Furthermore, despite the fact that we used one of the largest case series to date to investigate the effect of atmospheric pressure on AAA rupture risk, it is possible that this study is simply too small to demonstrate a causal link.

Vertical profiles of pollutant gases measured with passive DOAS in the Po Valley devoted to satellite and chemical model data comparison

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masieri, S.; Petritoli, A.; Kostadinov, I.; Bortoli, D.; Premuda, M.; Ravegnani, F.; Giovanelli, G.

2009-04-01

In the frame of QUITSAT Italian pilot project (Air QUality with InTegration of ground-based and SAtellite measurement and chemical Transport model), two field campaigns were made in S.Pietro Capofiume (44.65˚ N; 11.37˚ E) and Bologna (44.52˚ N; 11.34˚ E) to provide concentration of ground particular matter and gaseous pollutants, namely nitrogen dioxide (NO2), formaldehyde (HCHO), sulphur dioxide (SO2) and ozone (O3). The aim of the campaigns was to provide experimental data need for tests and improvement of algorithms developed for integration of satellite and ground-based data together with chemical transport model data in order to retrieve air quality in the QUITSAT domain. Ground based measurements were carried out within a network of in-situ analyser in the Po Valley and with a scanning multi-axis DOAS (Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy) spectrometer system developed at ISAC-CNR institute [1], in collaboration with Geophysics Center of Evora [2]. TropoGAS (TROPOspheric Gas Analyser Spectrometer) spectrometer permits active and passive DOAS measurements at the chosen angles: α =1,2,3,6,10,15,20,90 and another measurement was taken along the sun direction. A Xenon lamp installed at 1km of distance from spectrometer was used as a reference concentration measured in the same place, and these values shows good agreement with in-situ analyser concentration. Gas spectral absorption was evaluated with DOAS [3] algorithms from 430 to 500 nm in two different windows: first from 436 to 460 nm for NO2 retrieval; second from 460 to 500 nm for O4 (best line at 477 nm) and NO2. Air Mass Factor (AMF) was calculated using PROMSAR (PROcessing of Multi-Scattered Atmospheric Radiation) model [4], that is a backward Montecarlo Radiative Transfer Model (RTM). An apposite inversion method [5][6], was applied to retrieve profiles of the target gases from their Slant Column Densities (SCD), using advanced approaches involving measurement of the atmospheric O4 whose profile depends strongly on altitude [7][8]. Due to this it is also possible gain information about the atmospheric aerosol profile to set better the parameters in AMF Calculation, and then retrieve gas concentration's profiles. The NO2 concentrations measured were in the range of 0.5-25 ppb, as we expect for summer periods in rural area. GAMES (Gas Aerosol Modelling Evaluation System) model [9] was used in this work to have a reference about vertical distribution of gases (the model provides concentration profiles along 4km of altitude, with 11 growing thickness levels). Result of comparison with profile caculate by the model and profile calulate by the Multi-axis DOAS technique, is presented and then it is compared with Satellite column retrieved (with our satellite Data processor) from SCIAMACHY sensor (onboard on ENVISAT platform) and (directly NO2 Tropospheric Vertical Column provided by KNMI) from OMI (onboard on AURA platform). Good agreements between used series are shown and improvements for this methodology are discussed. One month of measurement has been taken in consideration starting from 15 May to 15 June of 2007. Vertical structure of most important trace gases calculated with model has strong correlation with the off-axis DOAS one (in some cases with R2=0,8), so better understanding of profiles and chemistry behaviour can be studied. The experience acquired within QUITSAT activity appears valuable contribution for enlargement of the DOAS applications what concern atmospheric chemistry studies, operative monitoring of the air quality over regional scale as well as satellite data validation. Deployed approaches are not restricted to NO2 but could be applied to other gases e.g. ozone, formaldehyde etc.. Key words: Off axis DOAS, NO2, CTM, AMF, gas profiles, satellite data validation, 1 2. BIBLIOGRAPHY [1] F. Evangelisti, A. Baroncelli, P. Bonasoni, G. Giovanelli, And F. Ravegnani, "Differential optical absorption spectrometer for measurement of tropospheric pollutants," Applied Optics, 34, pp. 2737-2744, 1995. [2] D. Bortoli, "SPATRAM - Spectrometer for ATmospheric TRAcers Measurements, a Prototype Equipment for the monitoring of minor compounds of the atmosphere," PhD dissertation, University of Evora, Evora, Portugal, 2005. [3] U. Platt, "Modern methods of the measurements of atmospheric trace gases," Phys. Chem., 1, pp. 5409-5415, 1999. [4] E. Palazzi, A. Petritoli, G. Giovanelli, I. Kostadinov, D. Bortoli, and F. Ravegnani, "PROMSAR: A multiple scattering atmospheric model for the analysis of DOAS remote sensing measurements," Adv. Space. Res., 36, pp. 1007-1014, 2005. [5] M. Chahine, "A general relaxation method for inverse solutionof the full radiative transfer equation," J. Atmos. Sci., 29, 4, pp. 741-747, 1972. [6] E. Palazzi, A. Petritoli, F. Ravegnani, I. Kostadinov, D. Bortoli, S. Masieri, M. Premuda, and G. Giovanelli, "Retrieval of Gas Pollutants Vertical Profile in the Boundary Layer by Means of Multiple Axis DOAS," IEEE Transaction on Geoscience and Remote Sensing. Vol. 46, pp. 2796-2802, 10.1109/TGRS.2008.2000927, 2008. [7] T. Wagner, B. Dix, C. von Friedeburg, U. Frieß, S. Sanghavi, R. Sinreich, and U. Platt, "MAX-DOAS O4 measurements: A new technique to derive information on atmospheric aerosols—Principles and information content," J. Geophys. Res., 109, D22205, doi:10.1029/2004JD004904, 2004. [8] A. Petritoli, Bonasoni P., Giovanelli G., Ravegnani F., Kostadinov I., Bortoli D., Weiss A., Schaub D., Richter A. and F. Fortezza, "First comparison between ground-based and satellite-borne measurements of tropospheric nitrogen dioxide in the Po basin," J. Geophys. Res., 109, D15307, doi: 10.1029/2004JD004547, 2004. [9] M. Volta, and G. Finzi, "GAMES, a comprehensive Gas Aerosol Modelling Evaluation System," Environ. Model. Software, 21, pp. 587-594, 2006.

Analyses and forecasts with LAWS winds

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Muyin; Paegle, Jan

1994-01-01

Horizontal fluxes of atmospheric water vapor are studied for summer months during 1989 and 1992 over North and South America based on analyses from European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts, US National Meteorological Center, and United Kingdom Meteorological Office. The calculations are performed over 20 deg by 20 deg box-shaped midlatitude domains located to the east of the Rocky Mountains in North America, and to the east of the Andes Mountains in South America. The fluxes are determined from operational center gridded analyses of wind and moisture. Differences in the monthly mean moisture flux divergence determined from these analyses are as large as 7 cm/month precipitable water equivalent over South America, and 3 cm/month over North America. Gridded analyses at higher spatial and temporal resolution exhibit better agreement in the moisture budget study. However, significant discrepancies of the moisture flux divergence computed from different gridded analyses still exist. The conclusion is more pessimistic than Rasmusson's estimate based on station data. Further analysis reveals that the most significant sources of error result from model surface elevation fields, gaps in the data archive, and uncertainties in the wind and specific humidity analyses. Uncertainties in the wind analyses are the most important problem. The low-level jets, in particular, are substantially different in the different data archives. Part of the reason for this may be due to the way the different analysis models parameterized physical processes affecting low-level jets. The results support the inference that the noise/signal ratio of the moisture budget may be improved more rapidly by providing better wind observations and analyses than by providing better moisture data.

The German Atmospheric Research Programme of The Federal Ministry of Education and Research (afo 2000)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winkler, R.; Zock, H.; Koppmann, R.

The Earth's atmosphere will change in the next decades with evident and increased unwanted effects on the living conditions, as a result of growing anthropogenic in- fluences in combination with climate variability. The wish to counteract and correct the resulting dangers requires comprehensive knowledge of all factors determining the conditions and dynamics of the atmosphere. Only through this knowledge a continued development of diagnostic and prognostic models will be possible, which then allows to estimate and assess adequately the effect and outcome of technical and administra- tive precautionary strategies. In order to identify the needs more precisely and to estab- lish priorities for their assessment, a working group was appointed which defined the relevant research tasks for future projects in the "Concept for Priority Mid-term Ger- man Atmospheric Research". This concept lead to announcement of the main funding focus "Atmospheric Research 2000" (AFO2000) within the German "Environmental Research Programme". The projects of AFO2000 are thematically structured into 4 in- terdisciplinary groups: 1. Surface-Atmosphere-Interactions, 2. Dynamics-Chemistry- Interactions, 3.Gas-Liquid-Solid Phase-Interactions, and 4. Overall Synthesis - Gen- eral Aspects. The first theme focuses on the chemical emissions, transport of mass and energy through the boundary layer into the free troposphere, chemical transformations near the surface, and other issues related to air quality. The second theme includes is- sues such as long-range and convective transport, and global budget of chemical com- pounds, as well as mesospheric and stratospheric processes. The third theme addresses the problems related to the microphysics and chemistry of different types of aerosols and the role of aerosol chemical composition in cloud formation. Finally, as part of the fourth theme, a large synthesis effort will be made using observational data and models. Here, the most advanced models will be used to analyse satellite and other measurements. Data assimilation will also be an important tool in this respect. More details about AFO 2000 can be found at: http://www.afo2000.de

Global observations and modeling of atmosphere-surface exchange of elemental mercury: a critical review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Wei; Lin, Che-Jen; Wang, Xun; Sommar, Jonas; Fu, Xuewu; Feng, Xinbin

2016-04-01

Reliable quantification of air-surface fluxes of elemental Hg vapor (Hg0) is crucial for understanding mercury (Hg) global biogeochemical cycles. There have been extensive measurements and modeling efforts devoted to estimating the exchange fluxes between the atmosphere and various surfaces (e.g., soil, canopies, water, snow, etc.) in the past three decades. However, large uncertainties remain due to the complexity of Hg0 bidirectional exchange, limitations of flux quantification techniques and challenges in model parameterization. In this study, we provide a critical review on the state of science in the atmosphere-surface exchange of Hg0. Specifically, the advancement of flux quantification techniques, mechanisms in driving the air-surface Hg exchange and modeling efforts are presented. Due to the semi-volatile nature of Hg0 and redox transformation of Hg in environmental media, Hg deposition and evasion are influenced by multiple environmental variables including seasonality, vegetative coverage and its life cycle, temperature, light, moisture, atmospheric turbulence and the presence of reactants (e.g., O3, radicals, etc.). However, the effects of these processes on flux have not been fundamentally and quantitatively determined, which limits the accuracy of flux modeling. We compile an up-to-date global observational flux database and discuss the implication of flux data on the global Hg budget. Mean Hg0 fluxes obtained by micrometeorological measurements do not appear to be significantly greater than the fluxes measured by dynamic flux chamber methods over unpolluted surfaces (p = 0.16, one-tailed, Mann-Whitney U test). The spatiotemporal coverage of existing Hg0 flux measurements is highly heterogeneous with large data gaps existing in multiple continents (Africa, South Asia, Middle East, South America and Australia). The magnitude of the evasion flux is strongly enhanced by human activities, particularly at contaminated sites. Hg0 flux observations in East Asia are comparatively larger in magnitude than the rest of the world, suggesting substantial re-emission of previously deposited mercury from anthropogenic sources. The Hg0 exchange over pristine surfaces (e.g., background soil and water) and vegetation needs better constraints for global analyses of the atmospheric Hg budget. The existing knowledge gap and the associated research needs for future measurements and modeling efforts for the air-surface exchange of Hg0 are discussed.

Data Assimilation and Regional Forecasts Using Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder (AIRS) Profiles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chou, Shih-Hung; Zavodsky, Bradley; Jedlovec, Gary

2009-01-01

In data sparse regions, remotely-sensed observations can be used to improve analyses, which in turn should lead to better forecasts. One such source comes from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), which together with the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU), provides temperature and moisture profiles with an accuracy comparable to that of radiosondes. The purpose of this paper is to describe a procedure to optimally assimilate AIRS thermodynamic profiles--obtained from the version 5.0 Earth Observing System (EOS) science team retrieval algorithm-into a regional configuration of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model using WRF-Var. The paper focuses on development of background error covariances for the regional domain and background field type, a methodology for ingesting AIRS profiles as separate over-land and over-water retrievals with different error characteristics, and utilization of level-by-level quality indicators to select only the highest quality data. The assessment of the impact of the AIRS profiles on WRF-Var analyses will focus on intelligent use of the quality indicators, optimized tuning of the WRF-Var, and comparison of analysis soundings to radiosondes. The analyses will be used to conduct a month-long series of regional forecasts over the continental U.S. The long-tern1 impact of AIRS profiles on forecast will be assessed against verifying radiosonde and stage IV precipitation data.

Spacecraft Collision Avoidance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bussy-Virat, Charles

The rapid increase of the number of objects in orbit around the Earth poses a serious threat to operational spacecraft and astronauts. In order to effectively avoid collisions, mission operators need to assess the risk of collision between the satellite and any other object whose orbit is likely to approach its trajectory. Several algorithms predict the probability of collision but have limitations that impair the accuracy of the prediction. An important limitation is that uncertainties in the atmospheric density are usually not taken into account in the propagation of the covariance matrix from current epoch to closest approach time. The Spacecraft Orbital Characterization Kit (SpOCK) was developed to accurately predict the positions and velocities of spacecraft. The central capability of SpOCK is a high accuracy numerical propagator of spacecraft orbits and computations of ancillary parameters. The numerical integration uses a comprehensive modeling of the dynamics of spacecraft in orbit that includes all the perturbing forces that a spacecraft is subject to in orbit. In particular, the atmospheric density is modeled by thermospheric models to allow for an accurate representation of the atmospheric drag. SpOCK predicts the probability of collision between two orbiting objects taking into account the uncertainties in the atmospheric density. Monte Carlo procedures are used to perturb the initial position and velocity of the primary and secondary spacecraft from their covariance matrices. Developed in C, SpOCK supports parallelism to quickly assess the risk of collision so it can be used operationally in real time. The upper atmosphere of the Earth is strongly driven by the solar activity. In particular, abrupt transitions from slow to fast solar wind cause important disturbances of the atmospheric density, hence of the drag acceleration that spacecraft are subject to. The Probability Distribution Function (PDF) model was developed to predict the solar wind speed five days in advance. In particular, the PDF model is able to predict rapid enhancements in the solar wind speed. It was found that 60% of the positive predictions were correct, while 91% of the negative predictions were correct, and 20% to 33% of the peaks in the speed were found by the model. En-semble forecasts provide the forecasters with an estimation of the uncertainty in the prediction, which can be used to derive uncertainties in the atmospheric density and in the drag acceleration. The dissertation then demonstrates that uncertainties in the atmospheric density result in large uncertainties in the prediction of the probability of collision. As an example, the effects of a geomagnetic storm on the probability of collision are illustrated. The research aims at providing tools and analyses that help understand and predict the effects of uncertainties in the atmospheric density on the probability of collision. The ultimate motivation is to support mission operators in making the correct decision with regard to a potential collision avoidance maneuver by providing an uncertainty on the prediction of the probability of collision instead of a single value. This approach can help avoid performing unnecessary costly maneuvers, while making sure that the risk of collision is fully evaluated.

Large scale meteorological patterns and moisture sources during precipitation extremes over South Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mehmood, S.; Ashfaq, M.; Evans, K. J.; Black, R. X.; Hsu, H. H.

2017-12-01

Extreme precipitation during summer season has shown an increasing trend across South Asia in recent decades, causing an exponential increase in weather related losses. Here we combine a cluster analyses technique (Agglomerative Hierarchical Clustering) with a Lagrangian based moisture analyses technique to investigate potential commonalities in the characteristics of the large scale meteorological patterns (LSMP) and moisture anomalies associated with the observed extreme precipitation events, and their representation in the Department of Energy model ACME. Using precipitation observations from the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) and Asian Precipitation Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation (APHRODITE), and atmospheric variables from Era-Interim Reanalysis, we first identify LSMP both in upper and lower troposphere that are responsible for wide spread precipitation extreme events during 1980-2015 period. For each of the selected extreme event, we perform moisture source analyses to identify major evaporative sources that sustain anomalous moisture supply during the course of the event, with a particular focus on local terrestrial moisture recycling. Further, we perform similar analyses on two sets of five-member ensemble of ACME model (1-degree and ¼ degree) to investigate the ability of ACME model in simulating precipitation extremes associated with each of the LSMP patterns and associated anomalous moisture sourcing from each of the terrestrial and oceanic evaporative region. Comparison of low and high-resolution model configurations provides insight about the influence of horizontal grid spacing in the simulation of extreme precipitation and the governing mechanisms.

The atmospheric parameters of FGK stars using wavelet analysis of CORALIE spectra

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gill, S.; Maxted, P. F. L.; Smalley, B.

2018-05-01

Context. Atmospheric properties of F-, G- and K-type stars can be measured by spectral model fitting or with the analysis of equivalent width (EW) measurements. These methods require data with good signal-to-noise ratios (S/Ns) and reliable continuum normalisation. This is particularly challenging for the spectra we have obtained with the CORALIE échelle spectrograph for FGK stars with transiting M-dwarf companions. The spectra tend to have low S/Ns, which makes it difficult to analyse them using existing methods. Aims: Our aim is to create a reliable automated spectral analysis routine to determine Teff, [Fe/H], V sini from the CORALIE spectra of FGK stars. Methods: We use wavelet decomposition to distinguish between noise, continuum trends, and stellar spectral features in the CORALIE spectra. A subset of wavelet coefficients from the target spectrum are compared to those from a grid of models in a Bayesian framework to determine the posterior probability distributions of the atmospheric parameters. Results: By testing our method using synthetic spectra we found that our method converges on the best fitting atmospheric parameters. We test the wavelet method on 20 FGK exoplanet host stars for which higher-quality data have been independently analysed using EW measurements. We find that we can determine Teff to a precision of 85 K, [Fe/H] to a precision of 0.06 dex and V sini to a precision of 1.35 km s-1 for stars with V sini ≥ 5 km s-1. We find an offset in metallicity ≈- 0.18 dex relative to the EW fitting method. We can determine log g to a precision of 0.13 dex but find systematic trends with Teff. Measurements of log g are only reliable enough to confirm dwarf-like surface gravity (log g ≈ 4.5). Conclusions: The wavelet method can be used to determine Teff, [Fe/H], and V sini for FGK stars from CORALIE échelle spectra. Measurements of log g are unreliable but can confirm dwarf-like surface gravity. We find that our method is self consistent, and robust for spectra with S/N ⪆ 40.

Toward Better Modeling of Supercritical Turbulent Mixing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Selle, Laurent; Okongo'o, Nora; Bellan, Josette; Harstad, Kenneth

2008-01-01

study was done as part of an effort to develop computational models representing turbulent mixing under thermodynamic supercritical (here, high pressure) conditions. The question was whether the large-eddy simulation (LES) approach, developed previously for atmospheric-pressure compressible-perfect-gas and incompressible flows, can be extended to real-gas non-ideal (including supercritical) fluid mixtures. [In LES, the governing equations are approximated such that the flow field is spatially filtered and subgrid-scale (SGS) phenomena are represented by models.] The study included analyses of results from direct numerical simulation (DNS) of several such mixing layers based on the Navier-Stokes, total-energy, and conservation- of-chemical-species governing equations. Comparison of LES and DNS results revealed the need to augment the atmospheric- pressure LES equations with additional SGS momentum and energy terms. These new terms are the direct result of high-density-gradient-magnitude regions found in the DNS and observed experimentally under fully turbulent flow conditions. A model has been derived for the new term in the momentum equation and was found to perform well at small filter size but to deteriorate with increasing filter size. Several alternative models were derived for the new SGS term in the energy equation that would need further investigations to determine if they are too computationally intensive in LES.

What is in the flask? Going beyond inventories

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andres, R. J.; Patra, P. K.; Piper, S.

2010-12-01

Compiling accurate inventories is tough work. Spatial, temporal, and altitudinal constraints all impact inventory accuracy and utility. However, while there is considerable challenge in creating inventories, the creation process needs to be mindful of inventory utilization. No inventory is perfect for all needs, yet inventories can be constructed to meet many needs. This presentation focuses on the use of a global, monthly, fossil-fuel carbon dioxide inventory. This inventory serves as one input into an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) based chemistry-transport model (ACTM). The inquiry centers on if fossil fuel emissions significantly impact the seasonal cycle of measured atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. Model results will be compared to Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO) flask and continuous analyzer data. Primary metrics to be used in the comparison are slope and correlation analyses. Slope analysis will help assess the degree to which model results agree with SIO data. Correlation analysis will help assess the degree to which the various model components (i.e., fossil fuels, terrestrial biosphere, oceans) contribute to the overall seasonal cycle. The importance of this example is that it couples inventory creation with inventory utilization. This demonstration of a new inventory data set shows the utility of carefully crafted inventory data sets to the broader community.

Atmospheric and wind modeling for ATC

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Slater, Gary L.

1990-01-01

The section on atmospheric modeling covers the following topics: the standard atmosphere, atmospheric variations, atmosphere requirements for ATC, and implementation of a software model for Center/Tracon Advisory System (CTAS). The section on wind modeling covers the following topics: wind data -- NOAA profiler system; wind profile estimation; incorporation of various data types into filtering scheme; spatial and temporal variation; and software implementation into CTAS. The appendices contain Matlab codes for atmospheric routines and for wind estimation.

Ground-based hyperspectral imaging and analysis of Jupiter’s atmosphere during the Juno era

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dahl, Emma; Chanover, Nancy J.; Voelz, David; Kuehn, David M.; Wijerathna, Erandi; Hull, Robert; Strycker, Paul D.; Baines, Kevin H.

2017-10-01

The Juno mission to Jupiter has presented ground-based observers with a unique opportunity to collect data while the spacecraft is simultaneously measuring the planet and its atmosphere. Data collected in conjunction with Juno measurements have the capability to complement and enhance wavelength regimes already covered by Juno instruments.In order to enrich Juno’s scientific returns in the visible regime, we use the New Mexico State University Acousto-optic Imaging Camera (NAIC) to obtain hyperspectral image cubes of Jupiter from 470-950 nm with an average spectral resolution (λ/dλ) of 242. We use NAIC with the Apache Point Observatory 3.5-m telescope to image Jupiter’s atmosphere during Juno’s perijove flybys. With these timely, high spectral resolution measurements, we can derive the properties of cloud and haze particulates and estimate cloud heights. We present geometrically and photometrically calibrated spectra of representative regions of Jupiter’s atmosphere to be compared with previous work and laboratory measurements of candidate chromophore materials. The data we present are from the night of March 26th, 2017, captured during Juno’s 5th perijove flyby. We discuss preliminary analyses of these spectra, including implications for future work regarding atmospheric modeling.For the aforementioned observations, NAIC was equipped with a thinned, back-illuminated CCD. Because of the narrow bandwidths NAIC’s spectral tuning element produces, this chip design resulted in etaloning, or “fringing,” in images at wavelengths longer than ~720 nm. We discuss our methodology for correcting the fringing and the progress of a general-use model for correcting fringing in CCDs. Such a model requires the extraction of chip characteristics from monochromatic flats, which can be then be used to model exactly how the interference of light inside the chip results in the fringing pattern. This artificial fringing image can then be removed from images, thereby correcting the effect.This work is supported by Research Support Agreement 1569980 from the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, as a subaward of a NASA/Solar System Observations grant.

Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter Navigation During the Primary Science Phase

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Highsmith, Dolan; You, Tung-Han; Demcak, Stuart; Graat, Eric; Higa, Earl; Long, Stacia; Bhat, Ram; Mottinger, Neil; Halsell, Allen; Peralta, Fernando

2008-01-01

The Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter began science operations in November 2006, with a suite of seven instruments and investigations, some of which required navigation accuracies much better than previous Mars missions. This paper describes the driving performance requirements levied on Navigation and how well those requirements have been met thus far. Trending analyses that have a direct impact on the Navigation performance, such as atmospheric bias determination, are covered in detail, as well as dynamic models, estimation strategy, tracking data reduction techniques, and residual noise.

Parametric Analyses of Potential Effects on Stratospheric and Tropospheric Ozone Chemistry by a Fleet of Supersonic Business Jets Projected in a 2020 Atmosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wey, Chowen (Technical Monitor); Dutta, M.; Patten, K.; Wuebbles, D.

2004-01-01

A class of new supersonic aircraft for business purposes is currently under consideration for use starting around 2015 to 2020. These aircraft, which can accommodate about 12 to 13 passengers, will fly at a speed of Mach 1.6 to 2 and are commonly termed as Supersonic Business Jets (SSBJs). A critical issue that needs to be addressed during the conception phase of such aircraft is the potential impact of emissions from such aircraft on the atmosphere especially on stratospheric ozone. Although these SSBJs will be much smaller in size and will have smaller engines than the hypothetical fleets of commercial passenger High Speed Civil Transport (HSCT) aircraft that we have studied previously, they will still emit nitrogen oxides (NOx = NO + NO2), carbon dioxide (CO2), water vapor (H2O) and sulfur, the latter if it is still in the fuel. Thus, it is important to design these SSBJs in a manner so that a projected fleet of these aircraft will not have a significant effect on ozone or on climate. This report analyzes the potential impact of a fleet of SSBJs in a set of parametric analyses that examine the envelope of potential effects on ozone over a range of total fuel burns, emission indices of nitrogen oxides (E.I.(NOx)), and cruise altitudes, using the current version of the UIUC zonally-averaged two-dimensional model of the global atmosphere.

VIRTIS on Venus Express: retrieval of real surface emissivity on global scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arnold, Gabriele E.; Kappel, David; Haus, Rainer; Telléz Pedroza, Laura; Piccioni, Giuseppe; Drossart, Pierre

2015-09-01

The extraction of surface emissivity data provides the data base for surface composition analyses and enables to evaluate Venus' geology. The Visible and InfraRed Thermal Imaging Spectrometer (VIRTIS) aboard ESA's Venus Express mission measured, inter alia, the nightside thermal emission of Venus in the near infrared atmospheric windows between 1.0 and 1.2 μm. These data can be used to determine information about surface properties on global scales. This requires a sophisticated approach to understand and consider the effects and interferences of different atmospheric and surface parameters influencing the retrieved values. In the present work, results of a new technique for retrieval of the 1.0 - 1.2 μm - surface emissivity are summarized. It includes a Multi-Window Retrieval Technique, a Multi-Spectrum Retrieval technique (MSR), and a detailed reliability analysis. The MWT bases on a detailed radiative transfer model making simultaneous use of information from different atmospheric windows of an individual spectrum. MSR regularizes the retrieval by incorporating available a priori mean values, standard deviations as well as spatial-temporal correlations of parameters to be retrieved. The capability of this method is shown for a selected surface target area. Implications for geologic investigations are discussed. Based on these results, the work draws conclusions for future Venus surface composition analyses on global scales using spectral remote sensing techniques. In that context, requirements for observational scenarios and instrumental performances are investigated, and recommendations are derived to optimize spectral measurements for Venus' surface studies.

Infrasound Predictions Using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model: Atmospheric Green's Functions for the Source Physics Experiments 1-6.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Poppeliers, Christian; Aur, Katherine Anderson; Preston, Leiph

This report shows the results of constructing predictive atmospheric models for the Source Physics Experiments 1-6. Historic atmospheric data are combined with topography to construct an atmo- spheric model that corresponds to the predicted (or actual) time of a given SPE event. The models are ultimately used to construct atmospheric Green's functions to be used for subsequent analysis. We present three atmospheric models for each SPE event: an average model based on ten one- hour snap shots of the atmosphere and two extrema models corresponding to the warmest, coolest, windiest, etc. atmospheric snap shots. The atmospheric snap shots consist ofmore » wind, temperature, and pressure profiles of the atmosphere for a one-hour time window centered at the time of the predicted SPE event, as well as nine additional snap shots for each of the nine preceding years, centered at the time and day of the SPE event.« less

Observed and simulated changes in Antarctic sea ice and sea level pressure: anthropogenic or natural variability? (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hobbs, W. R.

2013-12-01

Statistically-significant changes in Antarctic sea ice cover and the overlying atmosphere have been observed over the last 30 years, but there is an open question of whether these changes are due to multi-decadal natural variability or an anthropogenically-forced response. A number of recent papers have shown that the slight increase in total sea ice cover is within the bounds of internal variability exhibited by coupled climate models in the CMIP5 suite. Modelled changes for the same time period generally show a decrease, but again with a magnitude that is within internal variability. However, in contrast to the Arctic, sea ice tends in the Antarctic are spatially highly heterogeneous, and consideration of the total ice cover may mask important regional signals. In this work, a robust ';fingerprinting' approach is used to show that the observed spatial pattern of sea ice trends is in fact outside simulated natural variability in west Antarctic, and furthermore that the CMIP5 models consistently show decreased ice cover in the Ross and Weddell Seas, sectors which in fact have an observed increase in cover. As a first step towards understanding the disagreement between models and observations, modelled sea level pressure trends are analysed using and optimal fingerprinting approach, to identify whether atmospheric deficiencies in the models can explain the model-observation discrepancy.

Precise determination of cosmogenic Ne in CREU-1 quartz standard, using the Helix-MC Plus mass spectrometer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamilton, D.; Honda, M.; Zhang, X.; Phillips, D.; Matchan, E.

2017-12-01

The Helix-MC Plus multi-collector noble gas mass spectrometer at the Australian National University is uniquely equipped with three high mass resolution collectors on H2, Axial and L2 positions. Their mass resolution and mass resolving power are as high as 1,800 and 8,000, respectively. The Helix-MC Plus can totally separate 20Ne+ from 40Ar++ isobaric interference and also partially separate 21Ne+ from 20NeH+ and 22Ne+ from 12C16O2++. By adjusting collector positions, we are able to measure interference-free Ne isotope intensities and have re-determined the 21Ne abundance in air [1]. Analyses by Honda et al. [1] demonstrated that 20Ne1H contributes approximately 2% to previously determined atmospheric 21Ne values [2], and a new atmospheric 21Ne/20Ne ratio of 0.002906 was calculated. Using the Helix-MC Plus mass spectrometer, we measured Ne abundances in the CREU-1 quartz standard [3] and determined cosmogenic concentrations by subtraction of atmospheric Ne with the new atmospheric 21Ne/20Ne value. The average concentration of cosmogenic 21Ne determined from four repeated analyses is 338 ± 12 × 106 atom/g (2σ). This compares with the average concentration of 348 ± 10 × 106 atom/g (2σ) from 45 analyses determined by several laboratories [3], where Ne isotope analyses were undertaken by conventional low resolution mass spectrometers and atmospheric Ne was subtracted using the conventional atmospheric 21Ne/20Ne [2]. On this basis, for a sample with abundant cosmogenic Ne, like CREU-1 quartz, previously measured by low mass resolution mass spectrometers are likely valid and their geological implications are unaffected. However, for low 21Ne concentration samples, combining new generation of mass spectrometers as well as the new atmospheric ratio may have significance for cosmogenic 21Ne surface exposure dating. References: [1] Honda M., et. al., International Journal of Mass Spectrometry, 387, 1 (2015). [2] Eberhardt P., et. al., Zeitschrift fur Naturforschung, 20a, 623 (1965). [3] Vermeesch P., et. al., Quaternary Geochronology, 26, 20 (2015).

Seasonal and inter-annual dynamics in the stable oxygen isotope compositions of water pools in a temperate humid grassland ecosystem: results from MIBA sampling and MuSICA modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hirl, Regina; Schnyder, Hans; Auerswald, Karl; Vetter, Sylvia; Ostler, Ulrike; Schleip, Inga; Wingate, Lisa; Ogée, Jérôme

2015-04-01

The oxygen isotope composition (δ18O) of water in terrestrial ecosystems usually shows strong and dynamic variations within and between the various compartments. These variations originate from changes in the δ18O of water inputs (e.g. rain or water vapour) and from 18O fractionation phenomena in the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum. Investigations of δ18O in ecosystem water pools and of their main drivers can help us understand water relations at plant, canopy or ecosystem scale and interpret δ18O signals in plant and animal tissues as paleo-climate proxies. During the vegetation periods of 2006 to 2012, soil, leaf and stem water as well as atmospheric humidity, rain water and groundwater were sampled at bi-weekly intervals in a temperate humid pasture of the Grünschwaige Grassland Research Station near Munich (Germany). The sampling was performed following standardised MIBA (Moisture Isotopes in the Biosphere and Atmosphere) protocols. Leaf water samples were prepared from a mixture of co-dominant species in the plant community in order to obtain a canopy-scale leaf water δ18O signal. All samples were then analysed for their δ18O compositions. The measured δ18O of leaf, stem and soil water were then compared with the δ18O signatures simulated by the process-based isotope-enabled ecosystem model MuSICA (Multi-layer Simulator of the Interactions between a vegetation Canopy and the Atmosphere). MuSICA integrates current mechanistic understanding of processes in the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum. Hence, the comparison of modelled and measured data allows the identification of gaps in current knowledge and of questions to be tackled in the future. Soil and plant characteristics for model parameterisation were derived from investigations at the experimental site and supplemented by values from the literature. Eddy-covariance measurements of ecosystem CO2 (GPP, NEE) and energy (H, LE) fluxes and soil temperature data were used for model evaluation. The comparison of measured and predicted ecosystem fluxes showed that the model captured the main features of the diurnal cycles of GPP, NEE, LE and H, as well as the soil temperature dynamics. In this presentation I will present the main results of this model-data comparison, as well as results from a model sensitivity analysis performed over a range of soil, plant and meteorological parameters to evaluate the relative importance of each parameter on the δ18O signatures of the various water pools.

Artificial Intelligence in planetary spectroscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Waldmann, Ingo

2017-10-01

The field of exoplanetary spectroscopy is as fast moving as it is new. Analysing currently available observations of exoplanetary atmospheres often invoke large and correlated parameter spaces that can be difficult to map or constrain. This is true for both: the data analysis of observations as well as the theoretical modelling of their atmospheres.Issues of low signal-to-noise data and large, non-linear parameter spaces are nothing new and commonly found in many fields of engineering and the physical sciences. Recent years have seen vast improvements in statistical data analysis and machine learning that have revolutionised fields as diverse as telecommunication, pattern recognition, medical physics and cosmology.In many aspects, data mining and non-linearity challenges encountered in other data intensive fields are directly transferable to the field of extrasolar planets. In this conference, I will discuss how deep neural networks can be designed to facilitate solving said issues both in exoplanet atmospheres as well as for atmospheres in our own solar system. I will present a deep belief network, RobERt (Robotic Exoplanet Recognition), able to learn to recognise exoplanetary spectra and provide artificial intelligences to state-of-the-art atmospheric retrieval algorithms. Furthermore, I will present a new deep convolutional network that is able to map planetary surface compositions using hyper-spectral imaging and demonstrate its uses on Cassini-VIMS data of Saturn.

The Exo-Atmosphere of WASP-103b

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Star Cartier, Kimberly Michelle; Wright, Jason; Beatty, Thomas G.

2017-01-01

Spectroscopic measurements of exo-atmospheres are essential for full characterization of an exoplanet's composition, temperature, and habitability. Given the state of our current technology, transiting hot Jupiters are the best candidates for both transmission and emission spectroscopy due to their large radii, extended atmospheres, and hot equilibrium temperatures. WASP-103b is a 1.5 Jupiter-radius gas giant at the edge of tidal disruption orbiting an F-star 470 pc away. Its very-hot temperature (2890 K), ultra-short period (0.92 day), and UV-quiet host star make WASP-103b a compelling target for exo-atmosphere observations. The presence of a nearby companion star complicates analyses of the WASP-103 system, and is likely physically associated with the host star and planet. We apply state-of-the-art Gaussian process regression to provide precise solutions to faint signals, with models that are flexible enough to accommodate extreme detector systematics and unknown noise sources. Through a combination of spaced-based emission spectra and multi-telescope ground-based transmission spectra and photometry, we show that WASP-103b has no obvious molecular absorption in the near-infrared, anomalously strong Rayleigh scattering, and the potential for a stratospheric thermal inversion. WASP-103b, along with other highly-irradiated hot Jupiters, will be a key planet for validating hypotheses about the existence and origin of thermal inversions, and developing analysis methods viable for exo-atmospheric studies of the future.

Mini-DIAL system measurements coupled with multivariate data analysis to identify TIC and TIM simulants: preliminary absorption database analysis.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaudio, P.; Malizia, A.; Gelfusa, M.; Martinelli, E.; Di Natale, C.; Poggi, L. A.; Bellecci, C.

2017-01-01

Nowadays Toxic Industrial Components (TICs) and Toxic Industrial Materials (TIMs) are one of the most dangerous and diffuse vehicle of contamination in urban and industrial areas. The academic world together with the industrial and military one are working on innovative solutions to monitor the diffusion in atmosphere of such pollutants. In this phase the most common commercial sensors are based on “point detection” technology but it is clear that such instruments cannot satisfy the needs of the smart cities. The new challenge is developing stand-off systems to continuously monitor the atmosphere. Quantum Electronics and Plasma Physics (QEP) research group has a long experience in laser system development and has built two demonstrators based on DIAL (Differential Absorption of Light) technology could be able to identify chemical agents in atmosphere. In this work the authors will present one of those DIAL system, the miniaturized one, together with the preliminary results of an experimental campaign conducted on TICs and TIMs simulants in cell with aim of use the absorption database for the further atmospheric an analysis using the same DIAL system. The experimental results are analysed with standard multivariate data analysis technique as Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to develop a classification model aimed at identifying organic chemical compound in atmosphere. The preliminary results of absorption coefficients of some chemical compound are shown together pre PCA analysis.

Scientific objectives of human exploration of Mars

USGS Publications Warehouse

Carr, M.H.

1996-01-01

While human exploration of Mars is unlikely to be undertaken for science reasons alone, science will be the main beneficiary. A wide range of science problems can be addressed at Mars. The planet formed in a different part of the solar system from the Earth and retains clues concerning compositional and environmental conditions in that part of the solar system when the planets formed. Mars has had a long and complex history that has involved almost as wide a range of processes as occurred on Earth. Elucidation of this history will require a comprehensive program of field mapping, geophysical sounding, in situ analyses, and return of samples to Earth that are representative of the planet's diversity. The origin and evolution of the Mars' atmosphere are very different from the Earth's, Mars having experienced major secular and cyclical changes in climate. Clues as to precisely how the atmosphere has evolved are embedded in its present chemistry, possibly in surface sinks of former atmosphere-forming volatiles, and in the various products of interaction between the atmosphere and surface. The present atmosphere also provides a means of testing general circulation models applicable to all planets. Although life is unlikely to be still extant on Mars, life may have started early in the planet's history. A major goal of any future exploration will, therefore, be to search for evidence of indigenous life.

Insights Gained from Forensic Analysis with MELCOR of the Fukushima-Daiichi Accidents.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Andrews, Nathan C.; Gauntt, Randall O.

Since the accidents at Fukushima-Daiichi, Sandia National Laboratories has been modeling these accident scenarios using the severe accident analysis code, MELCOR. MELCOR is a widely used computer code developed at Sandia National Laboratories since ~1982 for the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Insights from the modeling of these accidents is being used to better inform future code development and potentially improved accident management. To date, our necessity to better capture in-vessel thermal-hydraulic and ex-vessel melt coolability and concrete interactions has led to the implementation of new models. The most recent analyses, presented in this paper, have been in support of themore » of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development Nuclear Energy Agency’s (OECD/NEA) Benchmark Study of the Accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station (BSAF) Project. The goal of this project is to accurately capture the source term from all three releases and then model the atmospheric dispersion. In order to do this, a forensic approach is being used in which available plant data and release timings is being used to inform the modeled MELCOR accident scenario. For example, containment failures, core slumping events and lower head failure timings are all enforced parameters in these analyses. This approach is fundamentally different from a blind code assessment analysis often used in standard problem exercises. The timings of these events are informed by representative spikes or decreases in plant data. The combination of improvements to the MELCOR source code resulting from analysis previous accident analysis and this forensic approach has allowed Sandia to generate representative and plausible source terms for all three accidents at Fukushima Daiichi out to three weeks after the accident to capture both early and late releases. In particular, using the source terms developed by MELCOR, the MACCS software code, which models atmospheric dispersion and deposition, we are able to reasonably capture the deposition of radionuclides to the northwest of the reactor site.« less

Model Atmospheres for Novae in Outburst: Summary of Research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hauschildt, Peter H.

1999-01-01

This paper presents a final report and summary of research on Model Atmospheres for Novae in Outburst. Some of the topics include: 1) Detailed NLTE (non-local thermodynamic equilibrium) Model Atmospheres for Novae during Outburst: II. Modeling optical and ultraviolet observations of Nova LMC 1988 #1; 2) A Non-LTE Line-Blanketed Stellar Atmosphere Model of the Early B Giant epsilon CMa; 3) Spectroscopy of Low Metallicity Stellar atmospheres; 4) Infrared Colors at the Stellar/Substellar Boundary; 5) On the abundance of Lithium in T CrB; 6) Numerical Solution of the Expanding Stellar Atmosphere Problem; and 7) The NextGen Model Atmosphere grid for 3000 less than or equal to T (sub eff) less than or equal to 10000K.

Carbon gas exchange at a southern Rocky Mountain wetland, 1996-1998

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wickland, K.P.; Striegl, Robert G.; Mast, M.A.; Clow, D.W.

2001-01-01

Carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) exchange between the atmosphere and a subalpine wetland located in Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado, at 3200 m elevation were measured during 1996-1998. Respiration, net CO2 flux, and CH4 flux were measured using the closed chamber method during snow-free periods and using gas diffusion calculations during snow-covered periods. The ranges of measured flux were 1.2-526 mmol CO2 m-2 d-1 (respiration), -1056-100 mmol CO2 m-2 d-1 (net CO2 exchange), and 0.1-36.8 mmol CH4 m-2 d-1 (a positive value represents efflux to the atmosphere). Respiration and CH4 emission were significantly correlated with 5 cm soil temperature. Annual respiration and CH4 emission were modeled by applying the flux-temperature relationships to a continuous soil temperature record during 1996-1998. Gross photosynthesis was modeled using a hyperbolic equation relating gross photosynthesis, photon flux density, and soil temperature. Modeled annual flux estimates indicate that the wetland was a net source of carbon gas to the atmosphere each of the three years: 8.9 mol C m-2 yr-1 in 1996, 9.5 mol C m-2 yr-1 in 1997, and 9.6 mol C m-2 yr-1 in 1998. This contrasts with the long-term carbon accumulation of ???0.7 mol m-2 yr-1 determined from 14C analyses of a peat core collected from the wetland.

A case study of GWE satellite data impact on GLA assimilation analyses of two ocean cyclones

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gallimore, R. G.; Johnson, D. R.

1986-01-01

The effects of the Global Weather Experiment (GWE) data obtained on January 18-20, 1979 on Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres assimilation analyses of simultaneous cyclones in the western Pacific and Atlantic oceans are examined. The ability of satellite data within assimilation models to determine the baroclinic structures of developing extratropical cyclones is evaluated. The impact of the satellite data on the amplitude and phase of the temperature structure within the storm domain, potential energy, and baroclinic growth rate is studied. The GWE data are compared with Data Systems Test results. It is noted that it is necessary to characterize satellite effects on the baroclinic structure of cyclone waves which degrade numerical weather predictions of cyclogenesis.

Predictive Techniques for Spacecraft Cabin Air Quality Control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Perry, J. L.; Cromes, Scott D. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

As assembly of the International Space Station (ISS) proceeds, predictive techniques are used to determine the best approach for handling a variety of cabin air quality challenges. These techniques use equipment offgassing data collected from each ISS module before flight to characterize the trace chemical contaminant load. Combined with crew metabolic loads, these data serve as input to a predictive model for assessing the capability of the onboard atmosphere revitalization systems to handle the overall trace contaminant load as station assembly progresses. The techniques for predicting in-flight air quality are summarized along with results from early ISS mission analyses. Results from groundbased analyses of in-flight air quality samples are compared to the predictions to demonstrate the technique's relative conservatism.

RCCM2-BATS model over tropical South America: Applications to tropical deforestation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hahmann, A.N.; Dickinson, R.E.

A multiyear simulation of the global climate uses a revised version of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate Model Version 2 (CCM2) coupled to the Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS). It is compared with global and rain gauge precipitation climatologies to evaluate precipitation fields and European Centre for Medium-Range Forecasts analyses to evaluate the atmospheric circulation. The near-surface climate is compared with data from Amazonian field campaigns. The model simulation of the South American climate agrees closely with the observational record and is much improved from past simulations with previous versions of the NCAR Community Climate model overmore » this portion of the Tropics. The model is then used to study the local and regional response to tropical deforestation over Amazonia. In addition to the standard deforestation forcing, consisting mainly of increased albedo and decreased roughness length, two additional sensitivity experiments were conducted to assess the individual contributions from these forcings to the deforestation changes. The standard deforestation simulation shows slight increases in annually averaged surface temperature (+1{degrees}C) and reductions in annually averaged precipitation and evaporation (-363 and -149 mm yr{sup -1}, respectively). As expected, increases in surface albedo over Amazonia produce a reduction in net downward solar radiation at the surface and consequently a reduction in net surface radiation and surface latent heat flux. The roughness decrease, on the other hand, reduces the surface latent heat fluxes through decreases in the surface drag coefficient. The regional changes in moisture convergence and precipitation during the Amazonian wet season display a shift in the area of maximum precipitation rather than an overall decrease over the deforested area. 45 refs., 16 figs., 4 tabs.« less

Detection of regional air pollution episodes utilizing satellite digital data in the visual range

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Burke, H.-H. K.

1982-01-01

Digital analyses of satellite visible data for selected high-sulfate cases over the northeastern U.S., on July 21 and 22, 1978, are compared with ground-based measurements. Quantitative information on total aerosol loading derived from the satellite digitized data using an atmospheric radiative transfer model is found to agree with the ground measurements, and it is shown that the extent and transport of the haze pattern may be monitored from the satellite data over the period of maximum intensity for the episode. Attention is drawn to the potential benefits of satellite monitoring of pollution episodes demonstrated by the model.

Current problems in applied mathematics and mathematical modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alekseev, A. S.

Papers are presented on mathematical modeling noting applications to such fields as geophysics, chemistry, atmospheric optics, and immunology. Attention is also given to models of ocean current fluxes, atmospheric and marine interactions, and atmospheric pollution. The articles include studies of catalytic reactors, models of global climate phenomena, and computer-assisted atmospheric models.

Demonstrating the Importance of `` Good" Models of Land Surface Hydrological Processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pitman, A.; Irannejad, P.; McGuffie, K.; Henderson-Sellers, A.

2003-12-01

To reduce the uncertainty in the prediction of land surface climates,, the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) Diagnostic Subproject 12 (DSP 12) and the Project for Intercomparison of Land-surface Parameterisation Schemes (PILPS) have analysed dependence of climate simulations on the land-surface schemes (LSSs). This analysis has comprised three efforts: (i) proving that LSSs matter in coupled simulations; (ii) investigating whether improvements in LSSs have occurred over time; and (iii) searching for novel means of validating LSS predictions. In the first, Irannejad et al. (2003) introduce a novel method for evaluating the dependence of 19 AMIP AGCMs' LH on the LSS by excluding the impact of the atmosphere. Pseudo LSSs (PLSSs) for LH in the form of multi-variable linear models expressing mean monthly LH as a function of atmospheric forcing are developed. Analysis over three large and climatically diverse river basins shows estimates of mean annual LH from the PLSSs agreeing well with the AGCMs' simulations. RMS errors range from 0.4 to 2.2 W m-2 depending on the region and the AGCM. When the PLSSs are driven by single atmospheric forcings, different LSSs behave differently, and the variability of mean annual LH among AGCMs increases. The second strand of our investigation uncovered a clear generational sequence of land-surface schemes: first generation 'no canopy'; second generation ` SiBlings'; and ` recent schemes'. We conclude that although continental surface modelling has improved over the last 30 years, full confidence remains elusive, in part due to tuning to available observations. Finally, we show that stable water isotopes challenge predictions of evaporation and condensation processes. These three-pronged findings prove that LSSs are important to AGCM and coupled climate predictions; demonstrate that new, or changed, land-surface components increase diversity among simulations; underline the need for validation data and also challenge current parameterisations with novel observations.

Scheduled Civil Aircraft Emission Inventories for 1976 and 1984: Database Development and Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baughcum, Steven L.; Henderson, Stephen C.; Tritz, Terrance G.

1996-01-01

This report describes the development of a three-dimensional database of aircraft fuel burn and emissions (fuel burned, NOx, CO, and hydrocarbons) from scheduled commercial aircraft for four months (February, May, August, and November) of 1976 and 1984. Combining this data with earlier published data for 1990 and 1992, trend analyses for fuel burned, NOx, carbon monoxide, and hydrocarbons were calculated for selected regions (global, North America, Europe, North Atlantic, and North Pacific). These emissions inventories are available for use by atmospheric scientists conducting the Atmospheric Effects of Aviation Project (AEAP) modeling studies. Fuel burned and emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx as NO2), carbon monoxide, and hydrocarbons have been calculated on a 1 degree latitude x 1 degree longitude x 1 kilometer altitude grid and delivered to NASA as electronic files.

Releve et analyse spectroscopiques d'etoiles naines blanches brillantes et riches en hydrogene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gianninas, Alexandros

2011-04-01

We present a spectroscopic survey and analysis of over 1300 bright (V ≤ 17.5), hydrogen-rich white dwarfs. High signal-to-noise ratio optical spectra were obtained and are then analyzed using our standard spectroscopic technique which compares the observed Balmer line profiles to synthetic spectra computed from the latest generation of model atmospheres. First, we present a detailed analysis 29 DAO white dwarfs using our new up-to-date model atmosphere grids in which we have included carbon, nitrogen, and oxygen at solar abundances. We demonstrate that the inclusion of these metals in the model atmospheres is essential in overcoming the Balmer-line problem, which manifests itself as an inability to fit all the Balmer lines simultaneously with consistent atmospheric parameters. We also identify 18 hot DA white dwarfs that also suffer from the Balmer-line problem. Far ultraviolet spectra from the FUSE archive are then examined to demonstrate that there exists a correlation between higher metallic abundances and instances of the Balmer-line problem. The implications of these findings for all hot, hydrogen-rich white dwarfs are discussed. Specifically, the possible evolutionary scenario for DAO white dwarfs is revised and post-EHB evolution need no longer be invoked to explain the evolution for the majority of the DAO stars. Finally, we discuss how the presence of metals might drive a weak stellar wind which in turn could explain the presence of helium in DAO white dwarfs. We then present the complete results from our survey, including the spectroscopic analysis of over 1200 DA white dwarfs. First we present the spectroscopic content of our sample which includes many misclassifications as well as several DAB, DAZ and magnetic white dwarfs. We then discuss the new model atmospheres we employ in our analysis. In addition, we use M dwarf templates to obtain better estimates of the atmospheric parameters for those white dwarfs which are in DA+dM binary systems. A handful of unique white dwarfs and double-degenerate binary systems are also analyzed in greater detail. We then examine the global properties of our sample including the mass distribution and mass distribution as a function of temperature. Next, we look at how the new Balmer-line profiles affect the determination of the atmospheric parameters. We then proceed to test the accuracy and robustness of our method by comparing our results to those of the SPY survey which has analyzed over 300 of the same white dwarfs in a completely independent manner. Finally, we also re-visit the ZZ Ceti instability strip and how the determination of its empirical boundaries is affected by the latest line profile calculations. Subject headings: stars: abundances -- stars: atmospheres -- stars: evolution -- stars fundamental parameters -- white dwarfs

A visiting scientist program in atmospheric sciences for the Goddard Space Flight Center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davis, M. H.

1989-01-01

A visiting scientist program was conducted in the atmospheric sciences and related areas at the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres. Research was performed in mathematical analysis as applied to computer modeling of the atmospheres; development of atmospheric modeling programs; analysis of remotely sensed atmospheric, surface, and oceanic data and its incorporation into atmospheric models; development of advanced remote sensing instrumentation; and related research areas. The specific research efforts are detailed by tasks.

A Reexamination of Deuterium Fractionation on Mars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pathare, A.; Paige, D. A.

1997-07-01

The ratio of deuterium to hydrogen in the Martian atmosphere is enhanced by a factor of 5 with respect to the terrestrial value, probably due to fractionation associated with thermal Jeans escape from the top of the atmosphere. Theoretical analyses of the relative efficiency of H and D escape have suggested that the deuterium enrichment implies Mars has outgassed the vast majority of its H2O and that the Martian atmosphere is presently not exchanging water with a juvenile reservoir. However, measurements of high and variable D/H values within hydrous minerals in SNC meteorites strongly suggest that mixing between the atmosphere and juvenile water has taken place. Furthermore, the lack of any observed enrichment of atmospheric (18) O with respect to (16) O, in spite of fractionating nonthermal escape mechanisms, indicates buffering by some juvenile source of oxygen, most probably in the form of a surface or subsurface reservoir of water. We propose that this apparent paradox in the interpretation of isotopic hydrogen and oxygen fractionation --or lack thereof-- can be resolved by re-examining the standard model of deuterium fractionation efficiency on Mars. Specifically, we demonstrate the importance of using upper atmospheric temperatures more representative of the range experienced by the Martian exosphere over the course of the solar cycle. Preliminary calculations involving changes in effusion velocity and diffusive separation as a function of exospheric temperature indicate that incorporating these more representative lower exospheric temperatures will reduce the relative efficiency of D escape, in which case the observed enrichment of deuterium can indeed result from exchange with a juvenile source of water. We are in the process of confirming these computations with a one-dimensional upper atmospheric photochemical model that considers the effects of changing solar activity and exospheric temperature on ionospheric composition. If our initial calculations are correct, and the relative efficiency of D escape is low enough to produce the observed D enrichment by exchange with a juvenile reservoir, then attempts to use the present value of atmospheric D/H to infer the total water outgassed by Mars over billions of years would be in error, since the atmospheric D/H would approach its present value in less than a million years of continual exposure to juvenile water.

Validation and Verification of Operational Land Analysis Activities at the Air Force Weather Agency

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shaw, Michael; Kumar, Sujay V.; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.; Cetola, Jeffrey

2012-01-01

The NASA developed Land Information System (LIS) is the Air Force Weather Agency's (AFWA) operational Land Data Assimilation System (LDAS) combining real time precipitation observations and analyses, global forecast model data, vegetation, terrain, and soil parameters with the community Noah land surface model, along with other hydrology module options, to generate profile analyses of global soil moisture, soil temperature, and other important land surface characteristics. (1) A range of satellite data products and surface observations used to generate the land analysis products (2) Global, 1/4 deg spatial resolution (3) Model analysis generated at 3 hours. AFWA recognizes the importance of operational benchmarking and uncertainty characterization for land surface modeling and is developing standard methods, software, and metrics to verify and/or validate LIS output products. To facilitate this and other needs for land analysis activities at AFWA, the Model Evaluation Toolkit (MET) -- a joint product of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Developmental Testbed Center (NCAR DTC), AFWA, and the user community -- and the Land surface Verification Toolkit (LVT), developed at the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), have been adapted to operational benchmarking needs of AFWA's land characterization activities.

Comparing the Degree of Land-Atmosphere Interaction in Four Atmospheric General Circulation Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koster, Randal D.; Dirmeyer, Paul A.; Hahmann, Andrea N.; Ijpelaar, Ruben; Tyahla, Lori; Cox, Peter; Suarez, Max J.; Houser, Paul R. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Land-atmosphere feedback, by which (for example) precipitation-induced moisture anomalies at the land surface affect the overlying atmosphere and thereby the subsequent generation of precipitation, has been examined and quantified with many atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs). Generally missing from such studies, however, is an indication of the extent to which the simulated feedback strength is model dependent. Four modeling groups have recently performed a highly controlled numerical experiment that allows an objective inter-model comparison of land-atmosphere feedback strength. The experiment essentially consists of an ensemble of simulations in which each member simulation artificially maintains the same time series of surface prognostic variables. Differences in atmospheric behavior between the ensemble members then indicates the degree to which the state of the land surface controls atmospheric processes in that model. A comparison of the four sets of experimental results shows that feedback strength does indeed vary significantly between the AGCMs.

Archival Study of Energetic Processes in the Upper Atmosphere of the Outer Planets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ballester, Gilda E.; Harris, Walter M.

1998-01-01

We compare International Ultraviolet Explorer (IUE) spectral observations of Jupiter's UltraViolet (UV) aurora in H-Lyman alpha (H-Lya) and H2 emissions with images of the UV aurora with HST to make more realistic interpretations of the IUE dataset. Use the limited spatial information in the IUE line-by-line spectra of the bright H-Lya line emission in the form of pseudo-monochromatic images at the IUE 3.5 arcsec resolution (Lya pseudo-images), to derive information on the emissions. Analysing of H2 spectra of Saturn's UV aurora to infer atmospheric level of auroral excitation from the methane absorption (color ratios). Analysing of a Uranus IUE dataset to determine periodicity in the emissions attributable to auroral emission fixed in magnetic longitude. Reviewing of the results from IUE observations of the major planets, upper atmospheres and interactions with the planets magnetospheres. Analysing of IUE spectra of the UV emissions from Io to identify excitation processes and infer properties of the Io-torus-Jupiter system.

Machine Learning Predictions of a Multiresolution Climate Model Ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, Gemma J.; Lucas, Donald D.

2018-05-01

Statistical models of high-resolution climate models are useful for many purposes, including sensitivity and uncertainty analyses, but building them can be computationally prohibitive. We generated a unique multiresolution perturbed parameter ensemble of a global climate model. We use a novel application of a machine learning technique known as random forests to train a statistical model on the ensemble to make high-resolution model predictions of two important quantities: global mean top-of-atmosphere energy flux and precipitation. The random forests leverage cheaper low-resolution simulations, greatly reducing the number of high-resolution simulations required to train the statistical model. We demonstrate that high-resolution predictions of these quantities can be obtained by training on an ensemble that includes only a small number of high-resolution simulations. We also find that global annually averaged precipitation is more sensitive to resolution changes than to any of the model parameters considered.

Ash Dispersal in Planetary Atmospheres: Continuum vs. Non-continuum Effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fagents, S. A.; Baloga, S. M.; Glaze, L. S.

2013-12-01

The dispersal of ash from a volcanic vent on any given planet is dictated by particle properties (density, shape, and size distribution), the intensity of the eruptive source, and the characteristics of the planetary environment (atmospheric structure, wind field, and gravity) into which the ash is erupted. Relating observations of potential pyroclastic deposits to source locations and eruption conditions requires a detailed quantitative understanding of the settling rates of individual particles under changing ambient conditions. For atmospheres that are well described by continuum mechanics, the conventional Newtonian description of particle motion allows particle settling velocities to be related to particle characteristics via a drag coefficient. However, under rarefied atmospheric conditions (i.e., on Mars and at high altitude on Earth), non-continuum effects become important for ash-sized particles, and an equation of motion based on statistical mechanics is required for calculating particle motion. We have developed a rigorous new treatment of particle settling under variable atmospheric conditions and applied it to Earth and Mars. When non-continuum effects are important (as dictated by the mean free path of atmospheric gas relative to the particle size), fall velocities are greater than those calculated by continuum mechanics. When continuum conditions (i.e., higher atmospheric densities) are reached during descent, our model switches to a conventional formulation that determines the appropriate drag coefficient as the particle transits varying atmospheric properties. The variation of settling velocity with altitude allows computation of particle trajectories, fall durations and downwind dispersal. Our theoretical and numerical analyses show that several key, competing factors strongly influence the downwind trajectories of ash particles and the extents of the resulting deposits. These factors include: the shape of the particles (non-spherical particles fall more slowly than spherical particle shapes commonly adopted in settling models); the formation of particle aggregates, which enhances settling rates; and the lagging of particle motion behind the ambient wind field, which results in less widely dispersed deposits. Above all, any particles experiencing non-continuum effects settle faster and are less widely dispersed than particles falling in an entirely continuum regime. Our model results demonstrate the complex interplay of these factors in the Martian environment, and our approach provides a basis for relating deposits observed in planetary datasets to candidate volcanic sources and eruption conditions. This allows for a critical reassessment of the potential for explosive volcanism to contribute to extremely widespread, fine-grained, layered deposits such as the Medusae Fossae Formation.

77 FR 3744 - Marine Mammals; File No. 17029

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-01-25

... DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration RIN 0648-XA938 Marine Mammals; File No. 17029 AGENCY: National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS), National Oceanic and Atmospheric... analyses marine mammal specimens for scientific research. DATES: Written, telefaxed, or email comments must...

The 1-way on-line coupled model system MECO(n) - Part 4: Chemical evaluation (based on MESSy v2.52)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mertens, Mariano; Kerkweg, Astrid; Jöckel, Patrick; Tost, Holger; Hofmann, Christiane

2016-10-01

For the first time, a simulation incorporating tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry using the newly developed MECO(n) model system is performed. MECO(n) is short for MESSy-fied ECHAM and COSMO models nested n times. It features an online coupling of the COSMO-CLM model, equipped with the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy) interface (called COSMO/MESSy), with the global atmospheric chemistry model ECHAM5/MESSy for Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC). This online coupling allows a consistent model chain with respect to chemical and meteorological boundary conditions from the global scale down to the regional kilometre scale. A MECO(2) simulation incorporating one regional instance over Europe with 50 km resolution and one instance over Germany with 12 km resolution is conducted for the evaluation of MECO(n) with respect to tropospheric gas-phase chemistry. The main goal of this evaluation is to ensure that the chemistry-related MESSy submodels and the online coupling with respect to the chemistry are correctly implemented. This evaluation is a prerequisite for the further usage of MECO(n) in atmospheric chemistry-related studies. Results of EMAC and the two COSMO/MESSy instances are compared with satellite, ground-based and aircraft in situ observations, focusing on ozone, carbon monoxide and nitrogen dioxide. Further, the methane lifetimes in EMAC and the two COSMO/MESSy instances are analysed in view of the tropospheric oxidation capacity. From this evaluation, we conclude that the chemistry-related submodels and the online coupling with respect to the chemistry are correctly implemented. In comparison with observations, both EMAC and COSMO/MESSy show strengths and weaknesses. Especially in comparison to aircraft in situ observations, COSMO/MESSy shows very promising results. However, the amplitude of the diurnal cycle of ground-level ozone measurements is underestimated. Most of the differences between COSMO/MESSy and EMAC can be attributed to differences in the dynamics of both models, which are subject to further model developments.

The Madden-Julian Oscillation and its Impact on Northern Hemisphere Weather Predictability during Wintertime

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jones, Charles; Waliser, Duane E.; Lau, K. M.; Stern, W.

2003-01-01

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is known as the dominant mode of tropical intraseasonal variability and has an important role in the coupled-atmosphere system. This study used twin numerical model experiments to investigate the influence of the MJO activity on weather predictability in the midlatitudes of the Northern Hemisphere during boreal winter. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Goddard laboratory for the Atmospheres (GLA) general circulation model was first used in a 10-yr simulation with fixed climatological SSTs to generate a validation data set as well as to select initial conditions for active MJO periods and Null cases. Two perturbation numerical experiments were performed for the 75 cases selected [(4 MJO phases + Null phase) _ 15 initial conditions in each]. For each alternative initial condition, the model was integrated for 90 days. Mean anomaly correlations in the midlatitudes of the Northern Hemisphere (2O deg N_60 deg.N) and standardized root-mean-square errors were computed to validate forecasts and control run. The analyses of 500-hPa geopotential height, 200-hPa Streamfunction and 850-hPa zonal wind component systematically show larger predictability during periods of active MJO as opposed to quiescent episodes of the oscillation.

Influence of Asian outflow on Rishiri Island, northernmost Japan: Application of radon as a tracer for characterizing fetch regions and evaluating a global 3D model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Chunmao; Yoshikawa-Inoue, Hisayuki; Matsueda, Hidekadzu; Sawa, Yosuke; Niwa, Yosuke; Wada, Akira; Tanimoto, Hiroshi

2012-04-01

Atmospheric 222Rn was monitored from December 2008 to November 2010 on Rishiri Island (45°07‧N, 141°12‧E), northernmost Japan. Seasonal 222Rn variation was characterized by high concentrations from November to February and low concentrations from May to July, caused by the alternation of continental and maritime fetch regions. 222Rn tracer and back trajectory cluster analyses indicated that the predominant continental fetch region was southeastern Siberia and northeastern China. 222Rn emitted from China and South Korea, whose economies are growing rapidly, did not significantly affect the Rishiri site. The major maritime fetch region was the Sea of Okhotsk and the Bering Sea. A global three-dimensional model (NICAM-TM) accurately simulated 222Rn concentrations on Rishiri Island and in the seasonal fetch regions. The time series of 222Rn data will make it possible to evaluate the sources and sinks of atmospheric greenhouse gases being monitored at Rishiri Island, which complements other sites in the Asia-Pacific rim region, and to validate model simulations used to examine trans-boundary air pollution.

Remote sensing and modelling analysis of the extreme dust storm hitting the Middle East and eastern Mediterranean in September 2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Solomos, Stavros; Ansmann, Albert; Mamouri, Rodanthi-Elisavet; Binietoglou, Ioannis; Patlakas, Platon; Marinou, Eleni; Amiridis, Vassilis

2017-03-01

The extreme dust storm that affected the Middle East and the eastern Mediterranean in September 2015 resulted in record-breaking dust loads over Cyprus with aerosol optical depth exceeding 5.0 at 550 nm. We analyse this event using profiles from the European Aerosol Research Lidar Network (EARLINET) and the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO), geostationary observations from the Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI), and high-resolution simulations from the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS). The analysis of modelling and remote sensing data reveals the main mechanisms that resulted in the generation and persistence of the dust cloud over the Middle East and Cyprus. A combination of meteorological and surface processes is found, including (a) the development of a thermal low in the area of Syria that results in unstable atmospheric conditions and dust mobilization in this area, (b) the convective activity over northern Iraq that triggers the formation of westward-moving haboobs that merge with the previously elevated dust layer, and (c) the changes in land use due to war in the areas of northern Iraq and Syria that enhance dust erodibility.

Evidence for the role of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and the ocean heat uptake in hiatus prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pasini, Antonello; Triacca, Umberto; Attanasio, Alessandro

2017-08-01

The recent hiatus in global temperature at the surface has been analysed by several studies, mainly using global climate models. The common accepted picture is that since the late 1990s, the increase in anthropogenic radiative forcings has been counterbalanced by other factors, e.g., a decrease in natural forcings, augmented ocean heat storage and negative phases of ocean-atmosphere-coupled oscillation patterns. Here, simple vector autoregressive models are used for forecasting the temperature hiatus in the period 2001-2014. This gives new insight into the problem of understanding the ocean contribution (in terms of heat uptake and atmosphere-ocean-coupled oscillations) to the appearance of this recent hiatus. In particular, considering data about the ocean heat content until a depth of 700 m and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation is necessary for correctly forecasting the hiatus, so catching both trend and interannual variability. Our models also show that the ocean heat uptake is substantially driven by the natural component of the total radiative forcing at a decadal time scale, confining the importance of the anthropogenic influences to a longer range warming of the ocean.

Intensification of Chile-Peru upwelling under climate change: diagnosing the impact of natural and anthropogenic forcing from the IPSL-CM5 model.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jebri, B.; Khodri, M.; Gastineau, G.; Echevin, V.; Thiria, S.

2017-12-01

Upwelling is critical to the biological production, acidification, and deoxygenation of the ocean's major eastern boundary current ecosystems. A conceptual hypothesis suggests that the winds that favour coastal upwelling intensify with anthropogenic global warming due to increased land-sea temperature contrast. We examine this hypothesis for the dynamics of the Peru-Chile upwelling using a set of four large ensembles of coupled, ocean-atmosphere model simulations with the IPSL model covering the 1940-2014 period. In one large ensemble we prescribe the standard CMIP5 greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, anthropogenic aerosol, ozone and volcanic forcings, following the historical experiments through 2005 and RCP8.5 from 2006-2014, while the other ensembles consider separately the GHG, ozone and volcanic forcings. We find evidence for intensification of upwelling-favourable winds with however little evidence of atmospheric pressure gradients in response to increasing land-sea temperature differences. Our analyses reveal poleward migration and intensification of the South Pacific Anticyclone near poleward boundaries of climatological Peruvian and Chilean upwelling zones. This contribution further investigates the physical mechanisms for the Peru-Chile upwelling intensification and the relative role of natural and anthropogenic forcings.

50th Anniversary of Radiation Budget Measurements from Satellites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raschke, Ehrhard, ,, Dr.; Kinne, Stefan, ,, Dr.

2010-05-01

The "space race" between the USA and the Soviet Union supported rapid developments of instruments to measure properties of the atmosphere from satellite platforms. The satellite Explorer 7 (launch on 13 October 1959) was the first to carry sensors which were sensitive to the fluxes of solar (shortwave) and terrestrial (longwave) radiation leaving the Earth to space. Improved versions of those sensors and more complicated radiometers were flown on various operational and experimental satellites of the Nimbus, ESSA, TIROS, COSMOS, and NOAA series. There results, although often inherent to strong sampling insufficiencies, provided already a general picture on the spatial distribution and seasonal variability of radiation budget components at the Top of the Atmosphere, which finally could be refined with the more recent and more accurate and complete data sets of the experiments ERBE, CERES and ScRaB. Numerical analyses of climate data complemented such measurements to obtain a complete picture on the radiation budget at various levels within the atmosphere and at ground. These data is now used to validate the performance of climate models.