Random Process Simulation for stochastic fatigue analysis. Ph.D. Thesis - Rice Univ., Houston, Tex.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Larsen, Curtis E.

1988-01-01

A simulation technique is described which directly synthesizes the extrema of a random process and is more efficient than the Gaussian simulation method. Such a technique is particularly useful in stochastic fatigue analysis because the required stress range moment E(R sup m), is a function only of the extrema of the random stress process. The family of autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models is reviewed and an autoregressive model is presented for modeling the extrema of any random process which has a unimodal power spectral density (psd). The proposed autoregressive technique is found to produce rainflow stress range moments which compare favorably with those computed by the Gaussian technique and to average 11.7 times faster than the Gaussian technique. The autoregressive technique is also adapted for processes having bimodal psd's. The adaptation involves using two autoregressive processes to simulate the extrema due to each mode and the superposition of these two extrema sequences. The proposed autoregressive superposition technique is 9 to 13 times faster than the Gaussian technique and produces comparable values for E(R sup m) for bimodal psd's having the frequency of one mode at least 2.5 times that of the other mode.

Accounting for uncertainty in health economic decision models by using model averaging.

PubMed

Jackson, Christopher H; Thompson, Simon G; Sharples, Linda D

2009-04-01

Health economic decision models are subject to considerable uncertainty, much of which arises from choices between several plausible model structures, e.g. choices of covariates in a regression model. Such structural uncertainty is rarely accounted for formally in decision models but can be addressed by model averaging. We discuss the most common methods of averaging models and the principles underlying them. We apply them to a comparison of two surgical techniques for repairing abdominal aortic aneurysms. In model averaging, competing models are usually either weighted by using an asymptotically consistent model assessment criterion, such as the Bayesian information criterion, or a measure of predictive ability, such as Akaike's information criterion. We argue that the predictive approach is more suitable when modelling the complex underlying processes of interest in health economics, such as individual disease progression and response to treatment.

Climatic Models Ensemble-based Mid-21st Century Runoff Projections: A Bayesian Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Achieng, K. O.; Zhu, J.

2017-12-01

There are a number of North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) climatic models that have been used to project surface runoff in the mid-21st century. Statistical model selection techniques are often used to select the model that best fits data. However, model selection techniques often lead to different conclusions. In this study, ten models are averaged in Bayesian paradigm to project runoff. Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) is used to project and identify effect of model uncertainty on future runoff projections. Baseflow separation - a two-digital filter which is also called Eckhardt filter - is used to separate USGS streamflow (total runoff) into two components: baseflow and surface runoff. We use this surface runoff as the a priori runoff when conducting BMA of runoff simulated from the ten RCM models. The primary objective of this study is to evaluate how well RCM multi-model ensembles simulate surface runoff, in a Bayesian framework. Specifically, we investigate and discuss the following questions: How well do ten RCM models ensemble jointly simulate surface runoff by averaging over all the models using BMA, given a priori surface runoff? What are the effects of model uncertainty on surface runoff simulation?

Combining NMR spectral and structural data to form models of polychlorinated dibenzodioxins, dibenzofurans, and biphenyls binding to the AhR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beger, Richard D.; Buzatu, Dan A.; Wilkes, Jon G.

2002-10-01

A three-dimensional quantitative spectrometric data-activity relationship (3D-QSDAR) modeling technique which uses NMR spectral and structural information that is combined in a 3D-connectivity matrix has been developed. A 3D-connectivity matrix was built by displaying all possible assigned carbon NMR chemical shifts, carbon-to-carbon connections, and distances between the carbons. Two-dimensional 13C-13C COSY and 2D slices from the distance dimension of the 3D-connectivity matrix were used to produce a relationship among the 2D spectral patterns for polychlorinated dibenzofurans, dibenzodioxins, and biphenyls (PCDFs, PCDDs, and PCBs respectively) binding to the aryl hydrocarbon receptor (AhR). We refer to this technique as comparative structural connectivity spectral analysis (CoSCoSA) modeling. All CoSCoSA models were developed using forward multiple linear regression analysis of the predicted 13C NMR structure-connectivity spectral bins. A CoSCoSA model for 26 PCDFs had an explained variance (r2) of 0.93 and an average leave-four-out cross-validated variance (q4 2) of 0.89. A CoSCoSA model for 14 PCDDs produced an r2 of 0.90 and an average leave-two-out cross-validated variance (q2 2) of 0.79. One CoSCoSA model for 12 PCBs gave an r2 of 0.91 and an average q2 2 of 0.80. Another CoSCoSA model for all 52 compounds had an r2 of 0.85 and an average q4 2 of 0.52. Major benefits of CoSCoSA modeling include ease of development since the technique does not use molecular docking routines.

Cycle-averaged dynamics of a periodically driven, closed-loop circulation model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Heldt, T.; Chang, J. L.; Chen, J. J. S.; Verghese, G. C.; Mark, R. G.

2005-01-01

Time-varying elastance models have been used extensively in the past to simulate the pulsatile nature of cardiovascular waveforms. Frequently, however, one is interested in dynamics that occur over longer time scales, in which case a detailed simulation of each cardiac contraction becomes computationally burdensome. In this paper, we apply circuit-averaging techniques to a periodically driven, closed-loop, three-compartment recirculation model. The resultant cycle-averaged model is linear and time invariant, and greatly reduces the computational burden. It is also amenable to systematic order reduction methods that lead to further efficiencies. Despite its simplicity, the averaged model captures the dynamics relevant to the representation of a range of cardiovascular reflex mechanisms. c2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Accounting for uncertainty in health economic decision models by using model averaging

PubMed Central

Jackson, Christopher H; Thompson, Simon G; Sharples, Linda D

2009-01-01

Health economic decision models are subject to considerable uncertainty, much of which arises from choices between several plausible model structures, e.g. choices of covariates in a regression model. Such structural uncertainty is rarely accounted for formally in decision models but can be addressed by model averaging. We discuss the most common methods of averaging models and the principles underlying them. We apply them to a comparison of two surgical techniques for repairing abdominal aortic aneurysms. In model averaging, competing models are usually either weighted by using an asymptotically consistent model assessment criterion, such as the Bayesian information criterion, or a measure of predictive ability, such as Akaike's information criterion. We argue that the predictive approach is more suitable when modelling the complex underlying processes of interest in health economics, such as individual disease progression and response to treatment. PMID:19381329

Forecasting coconut production in the Philippines with ARIMA model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lim, Cristina Teresa

2015-02-01

The study aimed to depict the situation of the coconut industry in the Philippines for the future years applying Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) method. Data on coconut production, one of the major industrial crops of the country, for the period of 1990 to 2012 were analyzed using time-series methods. Autocorrelation (ACF) and partial autocorrelation functions (PACF) were calculated for the data. Appropriate Box-Jenkins autoregressive moving average model was fitted. Validity of the model was tested using standard statistical techniques. The forecasting power of autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model was used to forecast coconut production for the eight leading years.

An Investigation of the Fit of Linear Regression Models to Data from an SAT[R] Validity Study. Research Report 2011-3

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kobrin, Jennifer L.; Sinharay, Sandip; Haberman, Shelby J.; Chajewski, Michael

2011-01-01

This study examined the adequacy of a multiple linear regression model for predicting first-year college grade point average (FYGPA) using SAT[R] scores and high school grade point average (HSGPA). A variety of techniques, both graphical and statistical, were used to examine if it is possible to improve on the linear regression model. The results…

Modeling particle number concentrations along Interstate 10 in El Paso, Texas

PubMed Central

Olvera, Hector A.; Jimenez, Omar; Provencio-Vasquez, Elias

2014-01-01

Annual average daily particle number concentrations around a highway were estimated with an atmospheric dispersion model and a land use regression model. The dispersion model was used to estimate particle concentrations along Interstate 10 at 98 locations within El Paso, Texas. This model employed annual averaged wind speed and annual average daily traffic counts as inputs. A land use regression model with vehicle kilometers traveled as the predictor variable was used to estimate local background concentrations away from the highway to adjust the near-highway concentration estimates. Estimated particle number concentrations ranged between 9.8 × 103 particles/cc and 1.3 × 105 particles/cc, and averaged 2.5 × 104 particles/cc (SE 421.0). Estimates were compared against values measured at seven sites located along I10 throughout the region. The average fractional error was 6% and ranged between -1% and -13% across sites. The largest bias of -13% was observed at a semi-rural site where traffic was lowest. The average bias amongst urban sites was 5%. The accuracy of the estimates depended primarily on the emission factor and the adjustment to local background conditions. An emission factor of 1.63 × 1014 particles/veh-km was based on a value proposed in the literature and adjusted with local measurements. The integration of the two modeling techniques ensured that the particle number concentrations estimates captured the impact of traffic along both the highway and arterial roadways. The performance and economical aspects of the two modeling techniques used in this study shows that producing particle concentration surfaces along major roadways would be feasible in urban regions where traffic and meteorological data are readily available. PMID:25313294

Experimental Quasi-Microwave Whole-Body Averaged SAR Estimation Method Using Cylindrical-External Field Scanning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kawamura, Yoshifumi; Hikage, Takashi; Nojima, Toshio

The aim of this study is to develop a new whole-body averaged specific absorption rate (SAR) estimation method based on the external-cylindrical field scanning technique. This technique is adopted with the goal of simplifying the dosimetry estimation of human phantoms that have different postures or sizes. An experimental scaled model system is constructed. In order to examine the validity of the proposed method for realistic human models, we discuss the pros and cons of measurements and numerical analyses based on the finite-difference time-domain (FDTD) method. We consider the anatomical European human phantoms and plane-wave in the 2GHz mobile phone frequency band. The measured whole-body averaged SAR results obtained by the proposed method are compared with the results of the FDTD analyses.

An automatic step adjustment method for average power analysis technique used in fiber amplifiers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Xue-Ming

2006-04-01

An automatic step adjustment (ASA) method for average power analysis (APA) technique used in fiber amplifiers is proposed in this paper for the first time. In comparison with the traditional APA technique, the proposed method has suggested two unique merits such as a higher order accuracy and an ASA mechanism, so that it can significantly shorten the computing time and improve the solution accuracy. A test example demonstrates that, by comparing to the APA technique, the proposed method increases the computing speed by more than a hundredfold under the same errors. By computing the model equations of erbium-doped fiber amplifiers, the numerical results show that our method can improve the solution accuracy by over two orders of magnitude at the same amplifying section number. The proposed method has the capacity to rapidly and effectively compute the model equations of fiber Raman amplifiers and semiconductor lasers.

Active cooling of pulse compression diffraction gratings for high energy, high average power ultrafast lasers

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Alessi, David A.; Rosso, Paul A.; Nguyen, Hoang T.

Laser energy absorption and subsequent heat removal from diffraction gratings in chirped pulse compressors poses a significant challenge in high repetition rate, high peak power laser development. In order to understand the average power limitations, we have modeled the time-resolved thermo-mechanical properties of current and advanced diffraction gratings. We have also developed and demonstrated a technique of actively cooling Petawatt scale, gold compressor gratings to operate at 600W of average power - a 15x increase over the highest average power petawatt laser currently in operation. As a result, combining this technique with low absorption multilayer dielectric gratings developed in ourmore » group would enable pulse compressors for petawatt peak power lasers operating at average powers well above 40kW.« less

Active cooling of pulse compression diffraction gratings for high energy, high average power ultrafast lasers

DOE PAGES

Alessi, David A.; Rosso, Paul A.; Nguyen, Hoang T.; ...

2016-12-26

Laser energy absorption and subsequent heat removal from diffraction gratings in chirped pulse compressors poses a significant challenge in high repetition rate, high peak power laser development. In order to understand the average power limitations, we have modeled the time-resolved thermo-mechanical properties of current and advanced diffraction gratings. We have also developed and demonstrated a technique of actively cooling Petawatt scale, gold compressor gratings to operate at 600W of average power - a 15x increase over the highest average power petawatt laser currently in operation. As a result, combining this technique with low absorption multilayer dielectric gratings developed in ourmore » group would enable pulse compressors for petawatt peak power lasers operating at average powers well above 40kW.« less

Plasma properties in electron-bombardment ion thrusters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Matossian, J. N.; Beattie, J. R.

1987-01-01

The paper describes a technique for computing volume-averaged plasma properties within electron-bombardment ion thrusters, using spatially varying Langmuir-probe measurements. Average values of the electron densities are defined by integrating the spatially varying Maxwellian and primary electron densities over the ionization volume, and then dividing by the volume. Plasma properties obtained in the 30-cm-diameter J-series and ring-cusp thrusters are analyzed by the volume-averaging technique. The superior performance exhibited by the ring-cusp thruster is correlated with a higher average Maxwellian electron temperature. The ring-cusp thruster maintains the same fraction of primary electrons as does the J-series thruster, but at a much lower ion production cost. The volume-averaged predictions for both thrusters are compared with those of a detailed thruster performance model.

Carbon-13 and proton nuclear magnetic resonance analysis of shale-derived refinery products and jet fuels and of experimental referee broadened-specification jet fuels

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dalling, D. K.; Bailey, B. K.; Pugmire, R. J.

1984-01-01

A proton and carbon-13 nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) study was conducted of Ashland shale oil refinery products, experimental referee broadened-specification jet fuels, and of related isoprenoid model compounds. Supercritical fluid chromatography techniques using carbon dioxide were developed on a preparative scale, so that samples could be quantitatively separated into saturates and aromatic fractions for study by NMR. An optimized average parameter treatment was developed, and the NMR results were analyzed in terms of the resulting average parameters; formulation of model mixtures was demonstrated. Application of novel spectroscopic techniques to fuel samples was investigated.

Locating helicopter emergency medical service bases to optimise population coverage versus average response time.

PubMed

Garner, Alan A; van den Berg, Pieter L

2017-10-16

New South Wales (NSW), Australia has a network of multirole retrieval physician staffed helicopter emergency medical services (HEMS) with seven bases servicing a jurisdiction with population concentrated along the eastern seaboard. The aim of this study was to estimate optimal HEMS base locations within NSW using advanced mathematical modelling techniques. We used high resolution census population data for NSW from 2011 which divides the state into areas containing 200-800 people. Optimal HEMS base locations were estimated using the maximal covering location problem facility location optimization model and the average response time model, exploring the number of bases needed to cover various fractions of the population for a 45 min response time threshold or minimizing the overall average response time to all persons, both in green field scenarios and conditioning on the current base structure. We also developed a hybrid mathematical model where average response time was optimised based on minimum population coverage thresholds. Seven bases could cover 98% of the population within 45mins when optimised for coverage or reach the entire population of the state within an average of 21mins if optimised for response time. Given the existing bases, adding two bases could either increase the 45 min coverage from 91% to 97% or decrease the average response time from 21mins to 19mins. Adding a single specialist prehospital rapid response HEMS to the area of greatest population concentration decreased the average state wide response time by 4mins. The optimum seven base hybrid model that was able to cover 97.75% of the population within 45mins, and all of the population in an average response time of 18 mins included the rapid response HEMS model. HEMS base locations can be optimised based on either percentage of the population covered, or average response time to the entire population. We have also demonstrated a hybrid technique that optimizes response time for a given number of bases and minimum defined threshold of population coverage. Addition of specialized rapid response HEMS services to a system of multirole retrieval HEMS may reduce overall average response times by improving access in large urban areas.

Testing averaged cosmology with type Ia supernovae and BAO data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Santos, B.; Alcaniz, J.S.; Coley, A.A.

An important problem in precision cosmology is the determination of the effects of averaging and backreaction on observational predictions, particularly in view of the wealth of new observational data and improved statistical techniques. In this paper, we discuss the observational viability of a class of averaged cosmologies which consist of a simple parametrized phenomenological two-scale backreaction model with decoupled spatial curvature parameters. We perform a Bayesian model selection analysis and find that this class of averaged phenomenological cosmological models is favored with respect to the standard ΛCDM cosmological scenario when a joint analysis of current SNe Ia and BAO datamore » is performed. In particular, the analysis provides observational evidence for non-trivial spatial curvature.« less

ENSURF: multi-model sea level forecast - implementation and validation results for the IBIROOS and Western Mediterranean regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pérez, B.; Brower, R.; Beckers, J.; Paradis, D.; Balseiro, C.; Lyons, K.; Cure, M.; Sotillo, M. G.; Hacket, B.; Verlaan, M.; Alvarez Fanjul, E.

2011-04-01

ENSURF (Ensemble SURge Forecast) is a multi-model application for sea level forecast that makes use of existing storm surge or circulation models today operational in Europe, as well as near-real time tide gauge data in the region, with the following main goals: - providing an easy access to existing forecasts, as well as to its performance and model validation, by means of an adequate visualization tool - generation of better forecasts of sea level, including confidence intervals, by means of the Bayesian Model Average Technique (BMA) The system was developed and implemented within ECOOP (C.No. 036355) European Project for the NOOS and the IBIROOS regions, based on MATROOS visualization tool developed by Deltares. Both systems are today operational at Deltares and Puertos del Estado respectively. The Bayesian Modelling Average technique generates an overall forecast probability density function (PDF) by making a weighted average of the individual forecasts PDF's; the weights represent the probability that a model will give the correct forecast PDF and are determined and updated operationally based on the performance of the models during a recent training period. This implies the technique needs the availability of sea level data from tide gauges in near-real time. Results of validation of the different models and BMA implementation for the main harbours will be presented for the IBIROOS and Western Mediterranean regions, where this kind of activity is performed for the first time. The work has proved to be useful to detect problems in some of the circulation models not previously well calibrated with sea level data, to identify the differences on baroclinic and barotropic models for sea level applications and to confirm the general improvement of the BMA forecasts.

ENSURF: multi-model sea level forecast - implementation and validation results for the IBIROOS and Western Mediterranean regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pérez, B.; Brouwer, R.; Beckers, J.; Paradis, D.; Balseiro, C.; Lyons, K.; Cure, M.; Sotillo, M. G.; Hackett, B.; Verlaan, M.; Fanjul, E. A.

2012-03-01

ENSURF (Ensemble SURge Forecast) is a multi-model application for sea level forecast that makes use of several storm surge or circulation models and near-real time tide gauge data in the region, with the following main goals: 1. providing easy access to existing forecasts, as well as to its performance and model validation, by means of an adequate visualization tool; 2. generation of better forecasts of sea level, including confidence intervals, by means of the Bayesian Model Average technique (BMA). The Bayesian Model Average technique generates an overall forecast probability density function (PDF) by making a weighted average of the individual forecasts PDF's; the weights represent the Bayesian likelihood that a model will give the correct forecast and are continuously updated based on the performance of the models during a recent training period. This implies the technique needs the availability of sea level data from tide gauges in near-real time. The system was implemented for the European Atlantic facade (IBIROOS region) and Western Mediterranean coast based on the MATROOS visualization tool developed by Deltares. Results of validation of the different models and BMA implementation for the main harbours are presented for these regions where this kind of activity is performed for the first time. The system is currently operational at Puertos del Estado and has proved to be useful in the detection of calibration problems in some of the circulation models, in the identification of the systematic differences between baroclinic and barotropic models for sea level forecasts and to demonstrate the feasibility of providing an overall probabilistic forecast, based on the BMA method.

Measured values of coal mine stopping resistance

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Oswald, N.; Prosser, B.; Ruckman, R.

2008-12-15

As coal mines become larger, the number of stoppings in the ventilation system increases. Each stopping represents a potential leakage path which must be adequately represented in the ventilation model. Stopping resistance can be calculated using two methods, the USBM method, used to determine a resistance for a single stopping, and the MVS technique, in which an average resistance is calculated for multiple stoppings. Through MVS data collected from ventilation surveys of different subsurface coal mines, average resistances for stoppings were determined for stopping in poor, average, good, and excellent conditions. The calculated average stoppings resistance were determined for concretemore » block and Kennedy stopping. Using the average stopping resistance, measured and calculated using the MVS method, provides a ventilation modeling tool which can be used to construct more accurate and useful ventilation models. 3 refs., 3 figs.« less

Exploring Modeling Options and Conversion of Average Response to Appropriate Vibration Envelopes for a Typical Cylindrical Vehicle Panel with Rib-stiffened Design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Harrison, Phil; LaVerde, Bruce; Teague, David

2009-01-01

Although applications for Statistical Energy Analysis (SEA) techniques are more widely used in the aerospace industry today, opportunities to anchor the response predictions using measured data from a flight-like launch vehicle structure are still quite valuable. Response and excitation data from a ground acoustic test at the Marshall Space Flight Center permitted the authors to compare and evaluate several modeling techniques available in the SEA module of the commercial code VA One. This paper provides an example of vibration response estimates developed using different modeling approaches to both approximate and bound the response of a flight-like vehicle panel. Since both vibration response and acoustic levels near the panel were available from the ground test, the evaluation provided an opportunity to learn how well the different modeling options can match band-averaged spectra developed from the test data. Additional work was performed to understand the spatial averaging of the measurements across the panel from measured data. Finally an evaluation/comparison of two conversion approaches from the statistical average response results that are output from an SEA analysis to a more useful envelope of response spectra appropriate to specify design and test vibration levels for a new vehicle.

Age-dependence of the average and equivalent refractive indices of the crystalline lens

PubMed Central

Charman, W. Neil; Atchison, David A.

2013-01-01

Lens average and equivalent refractive indices are required for purposes such as lens thickness estimation and optical modeling. We modeled the refractive index gradient as a power function of the normalized distance from lens center. Average index along the lens axis was estimated by integration. Equivalent index was estimated by raytracing through a model eye to establish ocular refraction, and then backward raytracing to determine the constant refractive index yielding the same refraction. Assuming center and edge indices remained constant with age, at 1.415 and 1.37 respectively, average axial refractive index increased (1.408 to 1.411) and equivalent index decreased (1.425 to 1.420) with age increase from 20 to 70 years. These values agree well with experimental estimates based on different techniques, although the latter show considerable scatter. The simple model of index gradient gives reasonable estimates of average and equivalent lens indices, although refinements in modeling and measurements are required. PMID:24466474

Evaluation and modification of five techniques for estimating stormwater runoff for watersheds in west-central Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Trommer, J.T.; Loper, J.E.; Hammett, K.M.

1996-01-01

Several traditional techniques have been used for estimating stormwater runoff from ungaged watersheds. Applying these techniques to water- sheds in west-central Florida requires that some of the empirical relationships be extrapolated beyond tested ranges. As a result, there is uncertainty as to the accuracy of these estimates. Sixty-six storms occurring in 15 west-central Florida watersheds were initially modeled using the Rational Method, the U.S. Geological Survey Regional Regression Equations, the Natural Resources Conservation Service TR-20 model, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Center-1 model, and the Environmental Protection Agency Storm Water Management Model. The techniques were applied according to the guidelines specified in the user manuals or standard engineering textbooks as though no field data were available and the selection of input parameters was not influenced by observed data. Computed estimates were compared with observed runoff to evaluate the accuracy of the techniques. One watershed was eliminated from further evaluation when it was determined that the area contributing runoff to the stream varies with the amount and intensity of rainfall. Therefore, further evaluation and modification of the input parameters were made for only 62 storms in 14 watersheds. Runoff ranged from 1.4 to 99.3 percent percent of rainfall. The average runoff for all watersheds included in this study was about 36 percent of rainfall. The average runoff for the urban, natural, and mixed land-use watersheds was about 41, 27, and 29 percent, respectively. Initial estimates of peak discharge using the rational method produced average watershed errors that ranged from an underestimation of 50.4 percent to an overestimation of 767 percent. The coefficient of runoff ranged from 0.20 to 0.60. Calibration of the technique produced average errors that ranged from an underestimation of 3.3 percent to an overestimation of 1.5 percent. The average calibrated coefficient of runoff for each watershed ranged from 0.02 to 0.72. The average values of the coefficient of runoff necessary to calibrate the urban, natural, and mixed land-use watersheds were 0.39, 0.16, and 0.08, respectively. The U.S. Geological Survey regional regression equations for determining peak discharge produced errors that ranged from an underestimation of 87.3 percent to an over- estimation of 1,140 percent. The regression equations for determining runoff volume produced errors that ranged from an underestimation of 95.6 percent to an overestimation of 324 percent. Regression equations developed from data used for this study produced errors that ranged between an underestimation of 82.8 percent and an over- estimation of 328 percent for peak discharge, and from an underestimation of 71.2 percent to an overestimation of 241 percent for runoff volume. Use of the equations developed for west-central Florida streams produced average errors for each type of watershed that were lower than errors associated with use of the U.S. Geological Survey equations. Initial estimates of peak discharges and runoff volumes using the Natural Resources Conservation Service TR-20 model, produced average errors of 44.6 and 42.7 percent respectively, for all the watersheds. Curve numbers and times of concentration were adjusted to match estimated and observed peak discharges and runoff volumes. The average change in the curve number for all the watersheds was a decrease of 2.8 percent. The average change in the time of concentration was an increase of 59.2 percent. The shape of the input dimensionless unit hydrograph also had to be adjusted to match the shape and peak time of the estimated and observed flood hydrographs. Peak rate factors for the modified input dimensionless unit hydrographs ranged from 162 to 454. The mean errors for peak discharges and runoff volumes were reduced to 18.9 and 19.5 percent, respectively, using the average calibrated input parameters for ea

Computational problems in autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Agarwal, G. C.; Goodarzi, S. M.; Oneill, W. D.; Gottlieb, G. L.

1981-01-01

The choice of the sampling interval and the selection of the order of the model in time series analysis are considered. Band limited (up to 15 Hz) random torque perturbations are applied to the human ankle joint. The applied torque input, the angular rotation output, and the electromyographic activity using surface electrodes from the extensor and flexor muscles of the ankle joint are recorded. Autoregressive moving average models are developed. A parameter constraining technique is applied to develop more reliable models. The asymptotic behavior of the system must be taken into account during parameter optimization to develop predictive models.

Estimating Natural Recharge in a Desert Environment Facing Increasing Ground-Water Demands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nishikawa, T.; Izbicki, J. A.; Hevesi, J. A.; Martin, P.

2004-12-01

Ground water historically has been the sole source of water supply for the community of Joshua Tree in the Joshua Tree ground-water subbasin of the Morongo ground-water basin in the southern Mojave Desert. Joshua Basin Water District (JBWD) supplies water to the community from the underlying Joshua Tree ground-water subbasin, and ground-water withdrawals averaging about 960 acre-ft/yr have resulted in as much as 35 ft of drawdown. As growth continues in the desert, ground-water resources may need to be supplemented using imported water. To help meet future demands, JBWD plans to construct production wells in the adjacent Copper Mountain ground-water subbasin. To manage the ground-water resources and to identify future mitigating measures, a thorough understanding of the ground-water system is needed. To this end, field and numerical techniques were applied to determine the distribution and quantity of natural recharge. Field techniques included the installation of instrumented boreholes in selected washes and at a nearby control site. Numerical techniques included the use of a distributed-parameter watershed model and a ground-water flow model. The results from the field techniques indicated that as much as 70 acre-ft/yr of water infiltrated downward through the two principal washes during the study period (2001-3). The results from the watershed model indicated that the average annual recharge in the ground-water subbasins is about 160 acre-ft/yr. The results from the calibrated ground-water flow model indicated that the average annual recharge for the same area is about 125 acre-ft/yr. Although the field and numerical techniques were applied to different scales (local vs. large), all indicate that natural recharge in the Joshua Tree area is very limited; therefore, careful management of the limited ground-water resources is needed. Moreover, the calibrated model can now be used to estimate the effects of different water-management strategies on the ground-water subbasins.

Some nonlinear damping models in flexible structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Balakrishnan, A. V.

1988-01-01

A class of nonlinear damping models is introduced with application to flexible flight structures characterized by low damping. Approximate solutions of engineering interest are obtained for the model using the classical averaging technique of Krylov and Bogoliubov. The results should be considered preliminary pending further investigation.

An Optimization of Inventory Demand Forecasting in University Healthcare Centre

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bon, A. T.; Ng, T. K.

2017-01-01

Healthcare industry becomes an important field for human beings nowadays as it concerns about one’s health. With that, forecasting demand for health services is an important step in managerial decision making for all healthcare organizations. Hence, a case study was conducted in University Health Centre to collect historical demand data of Panadol 650mg for 68 months from January 2009 until August 2014. The aim of the research is to optimize the overall inventory demand through forecasting techniques. Quantitative forecasting or time series forecasting model was used in the case study to forecast future data as a function of past data. Furthermore, the data pattern needs to be identified first before applying the forecasting techniques. Trend is the data pattern and then ten forecasting techniques are applied using Risk Simulator Software. Lastly, the best forecasting techniques will be find out with the least forecasting error. Among the ten forecasting techniques include single moving average, single exponential smoothing, double moving average, double exponential smoothing, regression, Holt-Winter’s additive, Seasonal additive, Holt-Winter’s multiplicative, seasonal multiplicative and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). According to the forecasting accuracy measurement, the best forecasting technique is regression analysis.

Moisture Damage Modeling in Lime and Chemically Modified Asphalt at Nanolevel Using Ensemble Computational Intelligence

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

This paper measures the adhesion/cohesion force among asphalt molecules at nanoscale level using an Atomic Force Microscopy (AFM) and models the moisture damage by applying state-of-the-art Computational Intelligence (CI) techniques (e.g., artificial neural network (ANN), support vector regression (SVR), and an Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS)). Various combinations of lime and chemicals as well as dry and wet environments are used to produce different asphalt samples. The parameters that were varied to generate different asphalt samples and measure the corresponding adhesion/cohesion forces are percentage of antistripping agents (e.g., Lime and Unichem), AFM tips K values, and AFM tip types. The CI methods are trained to model the adhesion/cohesion forces given the variation in values of the above parameters. To achieve enhanced performance, the statistical methods such as average, weighted average, and regression of the outputs generated by the CI techniques are used. The experimental results show that, of the three individual CI methods, ANN can model moisture damage to lime- and chemically modified asphalt better than the other two CI techniques for both wet and dry conditions. Moreover, the ensemble of CI along with statistical measurement provides better accuracy than any of the individual CI techniques. PMID:29849551

Frequentist Model Averaging in Structural Equation Modelling.

PubMed

Jin, Shaobo; Ankargren, Sebastian

2018-06-04

Model selection from a set of candidate models plays an important role in many structural equation modelling applications. However, traditional model selection methods introduce extra randomness that is not accounted for by post-model selection inference. In the current study, we propose a model averaging technique within the frequentist statistical framework. Instead of selecting an optimal model, the contributions of all candidate models are acknowledged. Valid confidence intervals and a [Formula: see text] test statistic are proposed. A simulation study shows that the proposed method is able to produce a robust mean-squared error, a better coverage probability, and a better goodness-of-fit test compared to model selection. It is an interesting compromise between model selection and the full model.

Modelling second malignancy risks from low dose rate and high dose rate brachytherapy as monotherapy for localised prostate cancer.

PubMed

Murray, Louise; Mason, Joshua; Henry, Ann M; Hoskin, Peter; Siebert, Frank-Andre; Venselaar, Jack; Bownes, Peter

2016-08-01

To estimate the risks of radiation-induced rectal and bladder cancers following low dose rate (LDR) and high dose rate (HDR) brachytherapy as monotherapy for localised prostate cancer and compare to external beam radiotherapy techniques. LDR and HDR brachytherapy monotherapy plans were generated for three prostate CT datasets. Second cancer risks were assessed using Schneider's concept of organ equivalent dose. LDR risks were assessed according to a mechanistic model and a bell-shaped model. HDR risks were assessed according to a bell-shaped model. Relative risks and excess absolute risks were estimated and compared to external beam techniques. Excess absolute risks of second rectal or bladder cancer were low for both LDR (irrespective of the model used for calculation) and HDR techniques. Average excess absolute risks of rectal cancer for LDR brachytherapy according to the mechanistic model were 0.71 per 10,000 person-years (PY) and 0.84 per 10,000 PY respectively, and according to the bell-shaped model, were 0.47 and 0.78 per 10,000 PY respectively. For HDR, the average excess absolute risks for second rectal and bladder cancers were 0.74 and 1.62 per 10,000 PY respectively. The absolute differences between techniques were very low and clinically irrelevant. Compared to external beam prostate radiotherapy techniques, LDR and HDR brachytherapy resulted in the lowest risks of second rectal and bladder cancer. This study shows both LDR and HDR brachytherapy monotherapy result in low estimated risks of radiation-induced rectal and bladder cancer. LDR resulted in lower bladder cancer risks than HDR, and lower or similar risks of rectal cancer. In absolute terms these differences between techniques were very small. Compared to external beam techniques, second rectal and bladder cancer risks were lowest for brachytherapy. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fourier descriptor analysis and unification of voice range profile contours: method and applications.

PubMed

Pabon, Peter; Ternström, Sten; Lamarche, Anick

2011-06-01

To describe a method for unified description, statistical modeling, and comparison of voice range profile (VRP) contours, even from diverse sources. A morphologic modeling technique, which is based on Fourier descriptors (FDs), is applied to the VRP contour. The technique, which essentially involves resampling of the curve of the contour, is assessed and also is compared to density-based VRP averaging methods that use the overlap count. VRP contours can be usefully described and compared using FDs. The method also permits the visualization of the local covariation along the contour average. For example, the FD-based analysis shows that the population variance for ensembles of VRP contours is usually smallest at the upper left part of the VRP. To illustrate the method's advantages and possible further application, graphs are given that compare the averaged contours from different authors and recording devices--for normal, trained, and untrained male and female voices as well as for child voices. The proposed technique allows any VRP shape to be brought to the same uniform base. On this uniform base, VRP contours or contour elements coming from a variety of sources may be placed within the same graph for comparison and for statistical analysis.

Predictability of weather and climate in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model: A dynamical systems approach. Ph.D. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nese, Jon M.

1989-01-01

A dynamical systems approach is used to quantify the instantaneous and time-averaged predictability of a low-order moist general circulation model. Specifically, the effects on predictability of incorporating an active ocean circulation, implementing annual solar forcing, and asynchronously coupling the ocean and atmosphere are evaluated. The predictability and structure of the model attractors is compared using the Lyapunov exponents, the local divergence rates, and the correlation, fractal, and Lyapunov dimensions. The Lyapunov exponents measure the average rate of growth of small perturbations on an attractor, while the local divergence rates quantify phase-spatial variations of predictability. These local rates are exploited to efficiently identify and distinguish subtle differences in predictability among attractors. In addition, the predictability of monthly averaged and yearly averaged states is investigated by using attractor reconstruction techniques.

Maximum likelihood estimation for periodic autoregressive moving average models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vecchia, A.V.

1985-01-01

A useful class of models for seasonal time series that cannot be filtered or standardized to achieve second-order stationarity is that of periodic autoregressive moving average (PARMA) models, which are extensions of ARMA models that allow periodic (seasonal) parameters. An approximation to the exact likelihood for Gaussian PARMA processes is developed, and a straightforward algorithm for its maximization is presented. The algorithm is tested on several periodic ARMA(1, 1) models through simulation studies and is compared to moment estimation via the seasonal Yule-Walker equations. Applicability of the technique is demonstrated through an analysis of a seasonal stream-flow series from the Rio Caroni River in Venezuela.

Load Balancing Using Time Series Analysis for Soft Real Time Systems with Statistically Periodic Loads

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hailperin, Max

1993-01-01

This thesis provides design and analysis of techniques for global load balancing on ensemble architectures running soft-real-time object-oriented applications with statistically periodic loads. It focuses on estimating the instantaneous average load over all the processing elements. The major contribution is the use of explicit stochastic process models for both the loading and the averaging itself. These models are exploited via statistical time-series analysis and Bayesian inference to provide improved average load estimates, and thus to facilitate global load balancing. This thesis explains the distributed algorithms used and provides some optimality results. It also describes the algorithms' implementation and gives performance results from simulation. These results show that our techniques allow more accurate estimation of the global system load ing, resulting in fewer object migration than local methods. Our method is shown to provide superior performance, relative not only to static load-balancing schemes but also to many adaptive methods.

A FEniCS-based programming framework for modeling turbulent flow by the Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mortensen, Mikael; Langtangen, Hans Petter; Wells, Garth N.

2011-09-01

Finding an appropriate turbulence model for a given flow case usually calls for extensive experimentation with both models and numerical solution methods. This work presents the design and implementation of a flexible, programmable software framework for assisting with numerical experiments in computational turbulence. The framework targets Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes models, discretized by finite element methods. The novel implementation makes use of Python and the FEniCS package, the combination of which leads to compact and reusable code, where model- and solver-specific code resemble closely the mathematical formulation of equations and algorithms. The presented ideas and programming techniques are also applicable to other fields that involve systems of nonlinear partial differential equations. We demonstrate the framework in two applications and investigate the impact of various linearizations on the convergence properties of nonlinear solvers for a Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes model.

Foundational Performance Analyses of Pressure Gain Combustion Thermodynamic Benefits for Gas Turbines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Paxson, Daniel E.; Kaemming, Thomas A.

2012-01-01

A methodology is described whereby the work extracted by a turbine exposed to the fundamentally nonuniform flowfield from a representative pressure gain combustor (PGC) may be assessed. The method uses an idealized constant volume cycle, often referred to as an Atkinson or Humphrey cycle, to model the PGC. Output from this model is used as input to a scalable turbine efficiency function (i.e., a map), which in turn allows for the calculation of useful work throughout the cycle. Integration over the entire cycle yields mass-averaged work extraction. The unsteady turbine work extraction is compared to steady work extraction calculations based on various averaging techniques for characterizing the combustor exit pressure and temperature. It is found that averages associated with momentum flux (as opposed to entropy or kinetic energy) provide the best match. This result suggests that momentum-based averaging is the most appropriate figure-of-merit to use as a PGC performance metric. Using the mass-averaged work extraction methodology, it is also found that the design turbine pressure ratio for maximum work extraction is significantly higher than that for a turbine fed by a constant pressure combustor with similar inlet conditions and equivalence ratio. Limited results are presented whereby the constant volume cycle is replaced by output from a detonation-based PGC simulation. The results in terms of averaging techniques and design pressure ratio are similar.

Bayesian inversion of refraction seismic traveltime data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ryberg, T.; Haberland, Ch

2018-03-01

We apply a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (McMC) formalism to the inversion of refraction seismic, traveltime data sets to derive 2-D velocity models below linear arrays (i.e. profiles) of sources and seismic receivers. Typical refraction data sets, especially when using the far-offset observations, are known as having experimental geometries which are very poor, highly ill-posed and far from being ideal. As a consequence, the structural resolution quickly degrades with depth. Conventional inversion techniques, based on regularization, potentially suffer from the choice of appropriate inversion parameters (i.e. number and distribution of cells, starting velocity models, damping and smoothing constraints, data noise level, etc.) and only local model space exploration. McMC techniques are used for exhaustive sampling of the model space without the need of prior knowledge (or assumptions) of inversion parameters, resulting in a large number of models fitting the observations. Statistical analysis of these models allows to derive an average (reference) solution and its standard deviation, thus providing uncertainty estimates of the inversion result. The highly non-linear character of the inversion problem, mainly caused by the experiment geometry, does not allow to derive a reference solution and error map by a simply averaging procedure. We present a modified averaging technique, which excludes parts of the prior distribution in the posterior values due to poor ray coverage, thus providing reliable estimates of inversion model properties even in those parts of the models. The model is discretized by a set of Voronoi polygons (with constant slowness cells) or a triangulated mesh (with interpolation within the triangles). Forward traveltime calculations are performed by a fast, finite-difference-based eikonal solver. The method is applied to a data set from a refraction seismic survey from Northern Namibia and compared to conventional tomography. An inversion test for a synthetic data set from a known model is also presented.

Optimal averaging of soil moisture predictions from ensemble land surface model simulations

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The correct interpretation of ensemble information obtained from the parallel implementation of multiple land surface models (LSMs) requires information concerning the LSM ensemble’s mutual error covariance. Here we propose a new technique for obtaining such information using an instrumental variabl...

Forecasting Techniques and Library Circulation Operations: Implications for Management.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ahiakwo, Okechukwu N.

1988-01-01

Causal regression and time series models were developed using six years of data for home borrowing, average readership, and books consulted at a university library. The models were tested for efficacy in producing short-term planning and control data. Combined models were tested in establishing evaluation measures. (10 references) (Author/MES)

Statistical Inference of a RANS closure for a Jet-in-Crossflow simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heyse, Jan; Edeling, Wouter; Iaccarino, Gianluca

2016-11-01

The jet-in-crossflow is found in several engineering applications, such as discrete film cooling for turbine blades, where a coolant injected through hols in the blade's surface protects the component from the hot gases leaving the combustion chamber. Experimental measurements using MRI techniques have been completed for a single hole injection into a turbulent crossflow, providing full 3D averaged velocity field. For such flows of engineering interest, Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) turbulence closure models are often the only viable computational option. However, RANS models are known to provide poor predictions in the region close to the injection point. Since these models are calibrated on simple canonical flow problems, the obtained closure coefficient estimates are unlikely to extrapolate well to more complex flows. We will therefore calibrate the parameters of a RANS model using statistical inference techniques informed by the experimental jet-in-crossflow data. The obtained probabilistic parameter estimates can in turn be used to compute flow fields with quantified uncertainty. Stanford Graduate Fellowship in Science and Engineering.

Short-term forecasts gain in accuracy. [Regression technique using ''Box-Jenkins'' analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

Box-Jenkins time-series models offer accuracy for short-term forecasts that compare with large-scale macroeconomic forecasts. Utilities need to be able to forecast peak demand in order to plan their generating, transmitting, and distribution systems. This new method differs from conventional models by not assuming specific data patterns, but by fitting available data into a tentative pattern on the basis of auto-correlations. Three types of models (autoregressive, moving average, or mixed autoregressive/moving average) can be used according to which provides the most appropriate combination of autocorrelations and related derivatives. Major steps in choosing a model are identifying potential models, estimating the parametersmore » of the problem, and running a diagnostic check to see if the model fits the parameters. The Box-Jenkins technique is well suited for seasonal patterns, which makes it possible to have as short as hourly forecasts of load demand. With accuracy up to two years, the method will allow electricity price-elasticity forecasting that can be applied to facility planning and rate design. (DCK)« less

Incorporating interfacial phenomena in solidification models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Beckermann, Christoph; Wang, Chao Yang

1994-01-01

A general methodology is available for the incorporation of microscopic interfacial phenomena in macroscopic solidification models that include diffusion and convection. The method is derived from a formal averaging procedure and a multiphase approach, and relies on the presence of interfacial integrals in the macroscopic transport equations. In a wider engineering context, these techniques are not new, but their application in the analysis and modeling of solidification processes has largely been overlooked. This article describes the techniques and demonstrates their utility in two examples in which microscopic interfacial phenomena are of great importance.

PERIODIC AUTOREGRESSIVE-MOVING AVERAGE (PARMA) MODELING WITH APPLICATIONS TO WATER RESOURCES.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vecchia, A.V.

1985-01-01

Results involving correlation properties and parameter estimation for autogressive-moving average models with periodic parameters are presented. A multivariate representation of the PARMA model is used to derive parameter space restrictions and difference equations for the periodic autocorrelations. Close approximation to the likelihood function for Gaussian PARMA processes results in efficient maximum-likelihood estimation procedures. Terms in the Fourier expansion of the parameters are sequentially included, and a selection criterion is given for determining the optimal number of harmonics to be included. Application of the techniques is demonstrated through analysis of a monthly streamflow time series.

Modeling of Density-Dependent Flow based on the Thermodynamically Constrained Averaging Theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weigand, T. M.; Schultz, P. B.; Kelley, C. T.; Miller, C. T.; Gray, W. G.

2016-12-01

The thermodynamically constrained averaging theory (TCAT) has been used to formulate general classes of porous medium models, including new models for density-dependent flow. The TCAT approach provides advantages that include a firm connection between the microscale, or pore scale, and the macroscale; a thermodynamically consistent basis; explicit inclusion of factors such as a diffusion that arises from gradients associated with pressure and activity and the ability to describe both high and low concentration displacement. The TCAT model is presented and closure relations for the TCAT model are postulated based on microscale averages and a parameter estimation is performed on a subset of the experimental data. Due to the sharpness of the fronts, an adaptive moving mesh technique was used to ensure grid independent solutions within the run time constraints. The optimized parameters are then used for forward simulations and compared to the set of experimental data not used for the parameter estimation.

A novel CT acquisition and analysis technique for breathing motion modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Low, Daniel A.; White, Benjamin M.; Lee, Percy P.; Thomas, David H.; Gaudio, Sergio; Jani, Shyam S.; Wu, Xiao; Lamb, James M.

2013-06-01

To report on a novel technique for providing artifact-free quantitative four-dimensional computed tomography (4DCT) image datasets for breathing motion modeling. Commercial clinical 4DCT methods have difficulty managing irregular breathing. The resulting images contain motion-induced artifacts that can distort structures and inaccurately characterize breathing motion. We have developed a novel scanning and analysis method for motion-correlated CT that utilizes standard repeated fast helical acquisitions, a simultaneous breathing surrogate measurement, deformable image registration, and a published breathing motion model. The motion model differs from the CT-measured motion by an average of 0.65 mm, indicating the precision of the motion model. The integral of the divergence of one of the motion model parameters is predicted to be a constant 1.11 and is found in this case to be 1.09, indicating the accuracy of the motion model. The proposed technique shows promise for providing motion-artifact free images at user-selected breathing phases, accurate Hounsfield units, and noise characteristics similar to non-4D CT techniques, at a patient dose similar to or less than current 4DCT techniques.

A Procedure for Estimating a Criterion-Referenced Standard to Identify Educationally Deprived Children for Title I Services. Final Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ziomek, Robert L.; Wright, Benjamin D.

Techniques such as the norm-referenced and average score techniques, commonly used in the identification of educationally disadvantaged students, are critiqued. This study applied latent trait theory, specifically the Rasch Model, along with teacher judgments relative to the mastery of instructional/test decisions, to derive a standard setting…

An experimental comparison of the relative benefits of work and torque assistance in ankle exoskeletons.

PubMed

Jackson, Rachel W; Collins, Steven H

2015-09-01

Techniques proposed for assisting locomotion with exoskeletons have often included a combination of active work input and passive torque support, but the physiological effects of different assistance techniques remain unclear. We performed an experiment to study the independent effects of net exoskeleton work and average exoskeleton torque on human locomotion. Subjects wore a unilateral ankle exoskeleton and walked on a treadmill at 1.25 m·s(-1) while net exoskeleton work rate was systematically varied from -0.054 to 0.25 J·kg(-1)·s(-1), with constant (0.12 N·m·kg(-1)) average exoskeleton torque, and while average exoskeleton torque was systematically varied from approximately zero to 0.18 N·m·kg(-1), with approximately zero net exoskeleton work. We measured metabolic rate, center-of-mass mechanics, joint mechanics, and muscle activity. Both techniques reduced effort-related measures at the assisted ankle, but this form of work input reduced metabolic cost (-17% with maximum net work input) while this form of torque support increased metabolic cost (+13% with maximum average torque). Disparate effects on metabolic rate seem to be due to cascading effects on whole body coordination, particularly related to assisted ankle muscle dynamics and the effects of trailing ankle behavior on leading leg mechanics during double support. It would be difficult to predict these results using simple walking models without muscles or musculoskeletal models that assume fixed kinematics or kinetics. Data from this experiment can be used to improve predictive models of human neuromuscular adaptation and guide the design of assistive devices. Copyright © 2015 the American Physiological Society.

Optimal averaging of soil moisture predictions from ensemble land surface model simulations

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The correct interpretation of ensemble 3 soil moisture information obtained from the parallel implementation of multiple land surface models (LSMs) requires information concerning the LSM ensemble’s mutual error covariance. Here we propose a new technique for obtaining such information using an inst...

Numerical investigation of airflow in an idealised human extra-thoracic airway: a comparison study

PubMed Central

Chen, Jie; Gutmark, Ephraim

2013-01-01

Large eddy simulation (LES) technique is employed to numerically investigate the airflow through an idealised human extra-thoracic airway under different breathing conditions, 10 l/min, 30 l/min, and 120 l/min. The computational results are compared with single and cross hot-wire measurements, and with time-averaged flow field computed by standard k-ω and k-ω-SST Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) models and the Lattice-Boltzmann method (LBM). The LES results are also compared to root-mean-square (RMS) flow field computed by the Reynolds stress model (RSM) and LBM. LES generally gives better prediction of the time-averaged flow field than RANS models and LBM. LES also provides better estimation of the RMS flow field than both the RSM and the LBM. PMID:23619907

Large ensemble modeling of last deglacial retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet: comparison of simple and advanced statistical techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pollard, D.; Chang, W.; Haran, M.; Applegate, P.; DeConto, R.

2015-11-01

A 3-D hybrid ice-sheet model is applied to the last deglacial retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet over the last ~ 20 000 years. A large ensemble of 625 model runs is used to calibrate the model to modern and geologic data, including reconstructed grounding lines, relative sea-level records, elevation-age data and uplift rates, with an aggregate score computed for each run that measures overall model-data misfit. Two types of statistical methods are used to analyze the large-ensemble results: simple averaging weighted by the aggregate score, and more advanced Bayesian techniques involving Gaussian process-based emulation and calibration, and Markov chain Monte Carlo. Results for best-fit parameter ranges and envelopes of equivalent sea-level rise with the simple averaging method agree quite well with the more advanced techniques, but only for a large ensemble with full factorial parameter sampling. Best-fit parameter ranges confirm earlier values expected from prior model tuning, including large basal sliding coefficients on modern ocean beds. Each run is extended 5000 years into the "future" with idealized ramped climate warming. In the majority of runs with reasonable scores, this produces grounding-line retreat deep into the West Antarctic interior, and the analysis provides sea-level-rise envelopes with well defined parametric uncertainty bounds.

Thermal sensing of cryogenic wind tunnel model surfaces Evaluation of silicon diodes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Daryabeigi, K.; Ash, R. L.; Dillon-Townes, L. A.

1986-01-01

Different sensors and installation techniques for surface temperature measurement of cryogenic wind tunnel models were investigated. Silicon diodes were selected for further consideration because of their good inherent accuracy. Their average absolute temperature deviation in comparison tests with standard platinum resistance thermometers was found to be 0.2 K in the range from 125 to 273 K. Subsurface temperature measurement was selected as the installation technique in order to minimize aerodynamic interference. Temperature distortion caused by an embedded silicon diode was studied numerically.

Thermal sensing of cryogenic wind tunnel model surfaces - Evaluation of silicon diodes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Daryabeigi, Kamran; Ash, Robert L.; Dillon-Townes, Lawrence A.

1986-01-01

Different sensors and installation techniques for surface temperature measurement of cryogenic wind tunnel models were investigated. Silicon diodes were selected for further consideration because of their good inherent accuracy. Their average absolute temperature deviation in comparison tests with standard platinum resistance thermometers was found to be 0.2 K in the range from 125 to 273 K. Subsurface temperature measurement was selected as the installation technique in order to minimize aerodynamic interference. Temperature distortion caused by an embedded silicon diode was studied numerically.

Encoding probabilistic brain atlases using Bayesian inference.

PubMed

Van Leemput, Koen

2009-06-01

This paper addresses the problem of creating probabilistic brain atlases from manually labeled training data. Probabilistic atlases are typically constructed by counting the relative frequency of occurrence of labels in corresponding locations across the training images. However, such an "averaging" approach generalizes poorly to unseen cases when the number of training images is limited, and provides no principled way of aligning the training datasets using deformable registration. In this paper, we generalize the generative image model implicitly underlying standard "average" atlases, using mesh-based representations endowed with an explicit deformation model. Bayesian inference is used to infer the optimal model parameters from the training data, leading to a simultaneous group-wise registration and atlas estimation scheme that encompasses standard averaging as a special case. We also use Bayesian inference to compare alternative atlas models in light of the training data, and show how this leads to a data compression problem that is intuitive to interpret and computationally feasible. Using this technique, we automatically determine the optimal amount of spatial blurring, the best deformation field flexibility, and the most compact mesh representation. We demonstrate, using 2-D training datasets, that the resulting models are better at capturing the structure in the training data than conventional probabilistic atlases. We also present experiments of the proposed atlas construction technique in 3-D, and show the resulting atlases' potential in fully-automated, pulse sequence-adaptive segmentation of 36 neuroanatomical structures in brain MRI scans.

The Mathematical Analysis of Style: A Correlation-Based Approach.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Oppenheim, Rosa

1988-01-01

Examines mathematical models of style analysis, focusing on the pattern in which literary characteristics occur. Describes an autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) for predicting sentence length in different works by the same author and comparable works by different authors. This technique is valuable in characterizing stylistic…

Precipitation interpolation in mountainous areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kolberg, Sjur

2015-04-01

Different precipitation interpolation techniques as well as external drift covariates are tested and compared in a 26000 km2 mountainous area in Norway, using daily data from 60 stations. The main method of assessment is cross-validation. Annual precipitation in the area varies from below 500 mm to more than 2000 mm. The data were corrected for wind-driven undercatch according to operational standards. While temporal evaluation produce seemingly acceptable at-station correlation values (on average around 0.6), the average daily spatial correlation is less than 0.1. Penalising also bias, Nash-Sutcliffe R2 values are negative for spatial correspondence, and around 0.15 for temporal. Despite largely violated assumptions, plain Kriging produces better results than simple inverse distance weighting. More surprisingly, the presumably 'worst-case' benchmark of no interpolation at all, simply averaging all 60 stations for each day, actually outperformed the standard interpolation techniques. For logistic reasons, high altitudes are under-represented in the gauge network. The possible effect of this was investigated by a) fitting a precipitation lapse rate as an external drift, and b) applying a linear model of orographic enhancement (Smith and Barstad, 2004). These techniques improved the results only marginally. The gauge density in the region is one for each 433 km2; higher than the overall density of the Norwegian national network. Admittedly the cross-validation technique reduces the gauge density, still the results suggest that we are far from able to provide hydrological models with adequate data for the main driving force.

Time is Money

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ausloos, Marcel; Vandewalle, Nicolas; Ivanova, Kristinka

Specialized topics on financial data analysis from a numerical and physical point of view are discussed when pertaining to the analysis of coherent and random sequences in financial fluctuations within (i) the extended detrended fluctuation analysis method, (ii) multi-affine analysis technique, (iii) mobile average intersection rules and distributions, (iv) sandpile avalanches models for crash prediction, (v) the (m,k)-Zipf method and (vi) the i-variability diagram technique for sorting out short range correlations. The most baffling result that needs further thought from mathematicians and physicists is recalled: the crossing of two mobile averages is an original method for measuring the "signal" roughness exponent, but why it is so is not understood up to now.

Comparison of tunnel variability between trans-portal and outside-in techniques in ACL reconstruction.

PubMed

Sim, Jae-Ang; Kim, Jong-Min; Lee, Sahnghoon; Bae, Ji-Yong; Seon, Jong-Keun

2017-04-01

Although trans-portal and outside-in techniques are commonly used for anatomical ACL reconstruction, there is very little information on variability in tunnel placement between two techniques. A total of 103 patients who received ACL reconstruction using trans-portal (50 patients) and outside-in techniques (53 patients) were included in the study. The ACL tunnel location, length and graft-femoral tunnel angle were analyzed using the 3D CT knee models, and we compared the location and length of the femoral and tibial tunnels, and graft bending angle between the two techniques. The variability in each technique regarding the tunnel location, length and graft tunnel angle using the range values was also compared. There were no differences in the average of femoral tunnel depth and height between the two groups. The ranges of femoral tunnel depth and height showed no difference between two groups (36 and 41 % in trans-portal technique vs. 32 and 41 % in outside-in technique). The average value and ranges of tibial tunnel location also showed similar results in two groups. The outside-in technique showed longer femoral tunnel than the trans-portal technique (34.0 vs. 36.8 mm, p = 0.001). The range of femoral tunnel was also wider in trans-portal technique than in outside-in technique. Although the outside-in technique showed significant acute graft bending angle than trans-portal technique in average values, the trans-portal technique showed wider ranges in graft bending angle than outside-in technique [ranges 73° (SD 13.6) vs. 53° (SD 10.7), respectively]. Although both trans-portal and outside-in techniques in ACL reconstruction can provide relatively consistent in femoral and tibial tunnel locations, trans-portal technique showed high variability in femoral tunnel length and graft bending angles than outside-in technique. Therefore, the outside-in technique in ACL reconstruction is considered as the effective method for surgeons to make more consistent femoral tunnel. III.

Neurosurgical endoscopic training via a realistic 3-dimensional model with pathology.

PubMed

Waran, Vicknes; Narayanan, Vairavan; Karuppiah, Ravindran; Thambynayagam, Hari Chandran; Muthusamy, Kalai Arasu; Rahman, Zainal Ariff Abdul; Kirollos, Ramez Wadie

2015-02-01

Training in intraventricular endoscopy is particularly challenging because the volume of cases is relatively small and the techniques involved are unlike those usually used in conventional neurosurgery. Present training models are inadequate for various reasons. Using 3-dimensional (3D) printing techniques, models with pathology can be created using actual patient's imaging data. This technical article introduces a new training model based on a patient with hydrocephalus secondary to a pineal tumour, enabling the models to be used to simulate third ventriculostomies and pineal biopsies. Multiple models of the head of a patient with hydrocephalus were created using 3D rapid prototyping technique. These models were modified to allow for a fluid-filled ventricular system under appropriate tension. The models were qualitatively assessed in the various steps involved in an endoscopic third ventriculostomy and intraventricular biopsy procedure, initially by 3 independent neurosurgeons and subsequently by 12 participants of an intraventricular endoscopy workshop. All 3 surgeons agreed on the ease and usefulness of these models in the teaching of endoscopic third ventriculostomy, performing endoscopic biopsies, and the integration of navigation to ventriculoscopy. Their overall score for the ventricular model realism was above average. The 12 participants of the intraventricular endoscopy workshop averaged between a score of 4.0 to 4.6 of 5 for every individual step of the procedure. Neurosurgical endoscopic training currently is a long process of stepwise training. These 3D printed models provide a realistic simulation environment for a neuroendoscopy procedure that allows safe and effective teaching of navigation and endoscopy in a standardized and repetitive fashion.

Characteristic of Nano-Cu Film Prepared by Energy Filtrating Magnetron Sputtering Technique and Its Optical Property

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Zhaoyong; Hu, Xing; Yao, Ning

2015-03-01

At the optimized deposition parameters, Cu film was deposited by the direct current magnetron sputtering (DMS) technique and the energy filtrating magnetron sputtering (EFMS) technique. The nano-structure was charactered by x-ray diffraction. The surface morphology of the film was observed by atomic force microscopy. The optical properties of the film were measured by spectroscopic ellipsometry. The refractive index, extinction coefficient and the thickness of the film were obtained by the fitted spectroscopic ellipsometry data using the Drude-Lorentz oscillator optical model. Results suggested that a Cu film with different properties was fabricated by the EFMS technique. The film containing smaller particles is denser and the surface is smoother. The average transmission coefficient, the refractive index and the extinction coefficients are higher than those of the Cu film deposited by the DMS technique. The average transmission coefficient (400-800 nm) is more than three times higher. The refractive index and extinction coefficient (at 550 nm) are more than 36% and 14% higher, respectively.

Psychometric Evaluation of Lexical Diversity Indices: Assessing Length Effects.

PubMed

Fergadiotis, Gerasimos; Wright, Heather Harris; Green, Samuel B

2015-06-01

Several novel techniques have been developed recently to assess the breadth of a speaker's vocabulary exhibited in a language sample. The specific aim of this study was to increase our understanding of the validity of the scores generated by different lexical diversity (LD) estimation techniques. Four techniques were explored: D, Maas, measure of textual lexical diversity, and moving-average type-token ratio. Four LD indices were estimated for language samples on 4 discourse tasks (procedures, eventcasts, story retell, and recounts) from 442 adults who are neurologically intact. The resulting data were analyzed using structural equation modeling. The scores for measure of textual lexical diversity and moving-average type-token ratio were stronger indicators of the LD of the language samples. The results for the other 2 techniques were consistent with the presence of method factors representing construct-irrelevant sources. These findings offer a deeper understanding of the relative validity of the 4 estimation techniques and should assist clinicians and researchers in the selection of LD measures of language samples that minimize construct-irrelevant sources.

[SciELO Public Health: the performance of Cadernos de Saúde Pública and Revista de Saúde Pública].

PubMed

Barata, Rita Barradas

2007-12-01

The aim of this paper was to analyze two Brazilian scientific journals included in the SciELO Library of Public Health, using a group of bibliometric indicators and scrutinizing the articles most viewed. Cadernos de Saúde Pública was accessed 3,743.59 times per month, with an average of 30.31 citations per article. The 50 articles most viewed (6.72 to 524.5 views) were mostly published in Portuguese (92%). 42% were theoretical essays, 20% surveys, and 16% descriptive studies. 42% used argumentative techniques, 34% quantitative techniques, 18% qualitative techniques, and 6% mathematical modeling. The most common themes were: health and work (50%), epidemiology (22%), and environmental health (8%). Revista de Saúde Pública was accessed 1,590.97 times per month, with an average of 26.27 citations per article. The 50 articles most viewed (7.33 and 56.50 views) were all published in Portuguese: 46% were surveys, 14% databases analysis, and 12% systematic reviews. Quantitative techniques were adopted in 66% of such articles, while mathematical modeling was the same as observed in Cadernos de Saúde Pública, as were qualitative techniques. The most common themes were health services organization (22%), nutrition (22%), health and work (18%), epidemiology (12%), and environmental health (12%).

Interest rate next-day variation prediction based on hybrid feedforward neural network, particle swarm optimization, and multiresolution techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lahmiri, Salim

2016-02-01

Multiresolution analysis techniques including continuous wavelet transform, empirical mode decomposition, and variational mode decomposition are tested in the context of interest rate next-day variation prediction. In particular, multiresolution analysis techniques are used to decompose interest rate actual variation and feedforward neural network for training and prediction. Particle swarm optimization technique is adopted to optimize its initial weights. For comparison purpose, autoregressive moving average model, random walk process and the naive model are used as main reference models. In order to show the feasibility of the presented hybrid models that combine multiresolution analysis techniques and feedforward neural network optimized by particle swarm optimization, we used a set of six illustrative interest rates; including Moody's seasoned Aaa corporate bond yield, Moody's seasoned Baa corporate bond yield, 3-Month, 6-Month and 1-Year treasury bills, and effective federal fund rate. The forecasting results show that all multiresolution-based prediction systems outperform the conventional reference models on the criteria of mean absolute error, mean absolute deviation, and root mean-squared error. Therefore, it is advantageous to adopt hybrid multiresolution techniques and soft computing models to forecast interest rate daily variations as they provide good forecasting performance.

Test techniques for model development of repetitive service energy storage capacitors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, M. C.; Mauldin, G. H.

1984-03-01

The performance of the Sandia perfluorocarbon family of energy storage capacitors was evaluated. The capacitors have a much lower charge noise signature creating new instrumentation performance goals. Thermal response to power loading and the importance of average and spot heating in the bulk regions require technical advancements in real time temperature measurements. Reduction and interpretation of thermal data are crucial to the accurate development of an intelligent thermal transport model. The thermal model is of prime interest in the high repetition rate, high average power applications of power conditioning capacitors. The accurate identification of device parasitic parameters has ramifications in both the average power loss mechanisms and peak current delivery. Methods to determine the parasitic characteristics and their nonlinearities and terminal effects are considered. Meaningful interpretations for model development, performance history, facility development, instrumentation, plans for the future, and present data are discussed.

Load Balancing Using Time Series Analysis for Soft Real Time Systems with Statistically Periodic Loads

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hailperin, M.

1993-01-01

This thesis provides design and analysis of techniques for global load balancing on ensemble architectures running soft-real-time object-oriented applications with statistically periodic loads. It focuses on estimating the instantaneous average load over all the processing elements. The major contribution is the use of explicit stochastic process models for both the loading and the averaging itself. These models are exploited via statistical time-series analysis and Bayesian inference to provide improved average load estimates, and thus to facilitate global load balancing. This thesis explains the distributed algorithms used and provides some optimality results. It also describes the algorithms' implementation and gives performance results from simulation. These results show that the authors' techniques allow more accurate estimation of the global system loading, resulting in fewer object migrations than local methods. The authors' method is shown to provide superior performance, relative not only to static load-balancing schemes but also to many adaptive load-balancing methods. Results from a preliminary analysis of another system and from simulation with a synthetic load provide some evidence of more general applicability.

Model analysis for the MAGIC telescope

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mazin, D.; Bigongiari, C.; Goebel, F.; Moralejo, A.; Wittek, W.

The MAGIC Collaboration operates the 17m imaging Cherenkov telescope on the Canary island La Palma. The main goal of the experiment is an energy threshold below 100 GeV for primary gamma rays. The new analysis technique (model analysis) takes advantage of the high resolution (both in space and time) camera by fitting the averaged expected templates of the shower development to the measured shower images in the camera. This approach allows to recognize and reconstruct images just above the level of the night sky background light fluctuations. Progress and preliminary results of the model analysis technique will be presented.

Toward large eddy simulation of turbulent flow over an airfoil

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Choi, Haecheon

1993-01-01

The flow field over an airfoil contains several distinct flow characteristics, e.g. laminar, transitional, turbulent boundary layer flow, flow separation, unstable free shear layers, and a wake. This diversity of flow regimes taxes the presently available Reynolds averaged turbulence models. Such models are generally tuned to predict a particular flow regime, and adjustments are necessary for the prediction of a different flow regime. Similar difficulties are likely to emerge when the large eddy simulation technique is applied with the widely used Smagorinsky model. This model has not been successful in correctly representing different turbulent flow fields with a single universal constant and has an incorrect near-wall behavior. Germano et al. (1991) and Ghosal, Lund & Moin have developed a new subgrid-scale model, the dynamic model, which is very promising in alleviating many of the persistent inadequacies of the Smagorinsky model: the model coefficient is computed dynamically as the calculation progresses rather than input a priori. The model has been remarkably successful in prediction of several turbulent and transitional flows. We plan to simulate turbulent flow over a '2D' airfoil using the large eddy simulation technique. Our primary objective is to assess the performance of the newly developed dynamic subgrid-scale model for computation of complex flows about aircraft components and to compare the results with those obtained using the Reynolds average approach and experiments. The present computation represents the first application of large eddy simulation to a flow of aeronautical interest and a key demonstration of the capabilities of the large eddy simulation technique.

Radiobiological Impact of Planning Techniques for Prostate Cancer in Terms of Tumor Control Probability and Normal Tissue Complication Probability

PubMed Central

Rana, S; Cheng, CY

2014-01-01

Background: The radiobiological models describe the effects of the radiation treatment on cancer and healthy cells, and the radiobiological effects are generally characterized by the tumor control probability (TCP) and normal tissue complication probability (NTCP). Aim: The purpose of this study was to assess the radiobiological impact of RapidArc planning techniques for prostate cancer in terms of TCP and normal NTCP. Subjects and Methods: A computed tomography data set of ten cases involving low-risk prostate cancer was selected for this retrospective study. For each case, two RapidArc plans were created in Eclipse treatment planning system. The double arc (DA) plan was created using two full arcs and the single arc (SA) plan was created using one full arc. All treatment plans were calculated with anisotropic analytical algorithm. Radiobiological modeling response evaluation was performed by calculating Niemierko's equivalent uniform dose (EUD)-based Tumor TCP and NTCP values. Results: For prostate tumor, the average EUD in the SA plans was slightly higher than in the DA plans (78.10 Gy vs. 77.77 Gy; P = 0.01), but the average TCP was comparable (98.3% vs. 98.3%; P = 0.01). In comparison to the DA plans, the SA plans produced higher average EUD to bladder (40.71 Gy vs. 40.46 Gy; P = 0.03) and femoral heads (10.39 Gy vs. 9.40 Gy; P = 0.03), whereas both techniques produced NTCP well below 0.1% for bladder (P = 0.14) and femoral heads (P = 0.26). In contrast, the SA plans produced higher average NTCP compared to the DA plans (2.2% vs. 1.9%; P = 0.01). Furthermore, the EUD to rectum was slightly higher in the SA plans (62.88 Gy vs. 62.22 Gy; P = 0.01). Conclusion: The SA and DA techniques produced similar TCP for low-risk prostate cancer. The NTCP for femoral heads and bladder was comparable in the SA and DA plans; however, the SA technique resulted in higher NTCP for rectum in comparison with the DA technique. PMID:24761232

Bayesian Model Averaging of Artificial Intelligence Models for Hydraulic Conductivity Estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nadiri, A.; Chitsazan, N.; Tsai, F. T.; Asghari Moghaddam, A.

2012-12-01

This research presents a Bayesian artificial intelligence model averaging (BAIMA) method that incorporates multiple artificial intelligence (AI) models to estimate hydraulic conductivity and evaluate estimation uncertainties. Uncertainty in the AI model outputs stems from error in model input as well as non-uniqueness in selecting different AI methods. Using one single AI model tends to bias the estimation and underestimate uncertainty. BAIMA employs Bayesian model averaging (BMA) technique to address the issue of using one single AI model for estimation. BAIMA estimates hydraulic conductivity by averaging the outputs of AI models according to their model weights. In this study, the model weights were determined using the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) that follows the parsimony principle. BAIMA calculates the within-model variances to account for uncertainty propagation from input data to AI model output. Between-model variances are evaluated to account for uncertainty due to model non-uniqueness. We employed Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy logic (TS-FL), artificial neural network (ANN) and neurofuzzy (NF) to estimate hydraulic conductivity for the Tasuj plain aquifer, Iran. BAIMA combined three AI models and produced better fitting than individual models. While NF was expected to be the best AI model owing to its utilization of both TS-FL and ANN models, the NF model is nearly discarded by the parsimony principle. The TS-FL model and the ANN model showed equal importance although their hydraulic conductivity estimates were quite different. This resulted in significant between-model variances that are normally ignored by using one AI model.

Social Inferences from Faces: Ambient Images Generate a Three-Dimensional Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sutherland, Clare A. M.; Oldmeadow, Julian A.; Santos, Isabel M.; Towler, John; Burt, D. Michael; Young, Andrew W.

2013-01-01

Three experiments are presented that investigate the two-dimensional valence/trustworthiness by dominance model of social inferences from faces (Oosterhof & Todorov, 2008). Experiment 1 used image averaging and morphing techniques to demonstrate that consistent facial cues subserve a range of social inferences, even in a highly variable sample of…

Non-Contact Thrust Stand Calibration Method for Repetitively-Pulsed Electric Thrusters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wong, Andrea R.; Toftul, Alexandra; Polzin, Kurt A.; Pearson, J. Boise

2011-01-01

A thrust stand calibration technique for use in testing repetitively-pulsed electric thrusters for in-space propulsion has been developed and tested using a modified hanging pendulum thrust stand. In the implementation of this technique, current pulses are applied to a solenoidal coil to produce a pulsed magnetic field that acts against the magnetic field produced by a permanent magnet mounted to the thrust stand pendulum arm. The force on the magnet is applied in this non-contact manner, with the entire pulsed force transferred to the pendulum arm through a piezoelectric force transducer to provide a time-accurate force measurement. Modeling of the pendulum arm dynamics reveals that after an initial transient in thrust stand motion the quasisteady average deflection of the thrust stand arm away from the unforced or zero position can be related to the average applied force through a simple linear Hooke s law relationship. Modeling demonstrates that this technique is universally applicable except when the pulsing period is increased to the point where it approaches the period of natural thrust stand motion. Calibration data were obtained using a modified hanging pendulum thrust stand previously used for steady-state thrust measurements. Data were obtained for varying impulse bit at constant pulse frequency and for varying pulse frequency. The two data sets exhibit excellent quantitative agreement with each other as the constant relating average deflection and average thrust match within the errors on the linear regression curve fit of the data. Quantitatively, the error on the calibration coefficient is roughly 1% of the coefficient value.

Predicting solar radiation based on available weather indicators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sauer, Frank Joseph

Solar radiation prediction models are complex and require software that is not available for the household investor. The processing power within a normal desktop or laptop computer is sufficient to calculate similar models. This barrier to entry for the average consumer can be fixed by a model simple enough to be calculated by hand if necessary. Solar radiation modeling has been historically difficult to predict and accurate models have significant assumptions and restrictions on their use. Previous methods have been limited to linear relationships, location restrictions, or input data limits to one atmospheric condition. This research takes a novel approach by combining two techniques within the computational limits of a household computer; Clustering and Hidden Markov Models (HMMs). Clustering helps limit the large observation space which restricts the use of HMMs. Instead of using continuous data, and requiring significantly increased computations, the cluster can be used as a qualitative descriptor of each observation. HMMs incorporate a level of uncertainty and take into account the indirect relationship between meteorological indicators and solar radiation. This reduces the complexity of the model enough to be simply understood and accessible to the average household investor. The solar radiation is considered to be an unobservable state that each household will be unable to measure. The high temperature and the sky coverage are already available through the local or preferred source of weather information. By using the next day's prediction for high temperature and sky coverage, the model groups the data and then predicts the most likely range of radiation. This model uses simple techniques and calculations to give a broad estimate for the solar radiation when no other universal model exists for the average household.

Voxel-based modeling and quantification of the proximal femur using inter-subject registration of quantitative CT images.

PubMed

Li, Wenjun; Kezele, Irina; Collins, D Louis; Zijdenbos, Alex; Keyak, Joyce; Kornak, John; Koyama, Alain; Saeed, Isra; Leblanc, Adrian; Harris, Tamara; Lu, Ying; Lang, Thomas

2007-11-01

We have developed a general framework which employs quantitative computed tomography (QCT) imaging and inter-subject image registration to model the three-dimensional structure of the hip, with the goal of quantifying changes in the spatial distribution of bone as it is affected by aging, drug treatment or mechanical unloading. We have adapted rigid and non-rigid inter-subject registration techniques to transform groups of hip QCT scans into a common reference space and to construct composite proximal femoral models. We have applied this technique to a longitudinal study of 16 astronauts who on average, incurred high losses of hip bone density during spaceflights of 4-6 months on the International Space Station (ISS). We compared the pre-flight and post-flight composite hip models, and observed the gradients of the bone loss distribution. We performed paired t-tests, on a voxel by voxel basis, corrected for multiple comparisons using false discovery rate (FDR), and observed regions inside the proximal femur that showed the most significant bone loss. To validate our registration algorithm, we selected the 16 pre-flight scans and manually marked 4 landmarks for each scan. After registration, the average distance between the mapped landmarks and the corresponding landmarks in the target scan was 2.56 mm. The average error due to manual landmark identification was 1.70 mm.

Spatial Modeling of Geometallurgical Properties: Techniques and a Case Study

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Deutsch, Jared L., E-mail: jdeutsch@ualberta.ca; Palmer, Kevin; Deutsch, Clayton V.

High-resolution spatial numerical models of metallurgical properties constrained by geological controls and more extensively by measured grade and geomechanical properties constitute an important part of geometallurgy. Geostatistical and other numerical techniques are adapted and developed to construct these high-resolution models accounting for all available data. Important issues that must be addressed include unequal sampling of the metallurgical properties versus grade assays, measurements at different scale, and complex nonlinear averaging of many metallurgical parameters. This paper establishes techniques to address each of these issues with the required implementation details and also demonstrates geometallurgical mineral deposit characterization for a copper–molybdenum deposit inmore » South America. High-resolution models of grades and comminution indices are constructed, checked, and are rigorously validated. The workflow demonstrated in this case study is applicable to many other deposit types.« less

Holographic Characterization of Colloidal Fractal Aggregates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Chen; Cheong, Fook Chiong; Ruffner, David B.; Zhong, Xiao; Ward, Michael D.; Grier, David G.

In-line holographic microscopy images of micrometer-scale fractal aggregates can be interpreted with the Lorenz-Mie theory of light scattering and an effective-sphere model to obtain each aggregate's size and the population-averaged fractal dimension. We demonstrate this technique experimentally using model fractal clusters of polystyrene nanoparticles and fractal protein aggregates composed of bovine serum albumin and bovine pancreas insulin. This technique can characterize several thousand aggregates in ten minutes and naturally distinguishes aggregates from contaminants such as silicone oil droplets. Work supported by the SBIR program of the NSF.

High frequency source localization in a shallow ocean sound channel using frequency difference matched field processing.

PubMed

Worthmann, Brian M; Song, H C; Dowling, David R

2015-12-01

Matched field processing (MFP) is an established technique for source localization in known multipath acoustic environments. Unfortunately, in many situations, particularly those involving high frequency signals, imperfect knowledge of the actual propagation environment prevents accurate propagation modeling and source localization via MFP fails. For beamforming applications, this actual-to-model mismatch problem was mitigated through a frequency downshift, made possible by a nonlinear array-signal-processing technique called frequency difference beamforming [Abadi, Song, and Dowling (2012). J. Acoust. Soc. Am. 132, 3018-3029]. Here, this technique is extended to conventional (Bartlett) MFP using simulations and measurements from the 2011 Kauai Acoustic Communications MURI experiment (KAM11) to produce ambiguity surfaces at frequencies well below the signal bandwidth where the detrimental effects of mismatch are reduced. Both the simulation and experimental results suggest that frequency difference MFP can be more robust against environmental mismatch than conventional MFP. In particular, signals of frequency 11.2 kHz-32.8 kHz were broadcast 3 km through a 106-m-deep shallow ocean sound channel to a sparse 16-element vertical receiving array. Frequency difference MFP unambiguously localized the source in several experimental data sets with average peak-to-side-lobe ratio of 0.9 dB, average absolute-value range error of 170 m, and average absolute-value depth error of 10 m.

Effects of reservoir heterogeneity on scaling of effective mass transfer coefficient for solute transport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leung, Juliana Y.; Srinivasan, Sanjay

2016-09-01

Modeling transport process at large scale requires proper scale-up of subsurface heterogeneity and an understanding of its interaction with the underlying transport mechanisms. A technique based on volume averaging is applied to quantitatively assess the scaling characteristics of effective mass transfer coefficient in heterogeneous reservoir models. The effective mass transfer coefficient represents the combined contribution from diffusion and dispersion to the transport of non-reactive solute particles within a fluid phase. Although treatment of transport problems with the volume averaging technique has been published in the past, application to geological systems exhibiting realistic spatial variability remains a challenge. Previously, the authors developed a new procedure where results from a fine-scale numerical flow simulation reflecting the full physics of the transport process albeit over a sub-volume of the reservoir are integrated with the volume averaging technique to provide effective description of transport properties. The procedure is extended such that spatial averaging is performed at the local-heterogeneity scale. In this paper, the transport of a passive (non-reactive) solute is simulated on multiple reservoir models exhibiting different patterns of heterogeneities, and the scaling behavior of effective mass transfer coefficient (Keff) is examined and compared. One such set of models exhibit power-law (fractal) characteristics, and the variability of dispersion and Keff with scale is in good agreement with analytical expressions described in the literature. This work offers an insight into the impacts of heterogeneity on the scaling of effective transport parameters. A key finding is that spatial heterogeneity models with similar univariate and bivariate statistics may exhibit different scaling characteristics because of the influence of higher order statistics. More mixing is observed in the channelized models with higher-order continuity. It reinforces the notion that the flow response is influenced by the higher-order statistical description of heterogeneity. An important implication is that when scaling-up transport response from lab-scale results to the field scale, it is necessary to account for the scale-up of heterogeneity. Since the characteristics of higher-order multivariate distributions and large-scale heterogeneity are typically not captured in small-scale experiments, a reservoir modeling framework that captures the uncertainty in heterogeneity description should be adopted.

Global exponential stability for switched memristive neural networks with time-varying delays.

PubMed

Xin, Youming; Li, Yuxia; Cheng, Zunshui; Huang, Xia

2016-08-01

This paper considers the problem of exponential stability for switched memristive neural networks (MNNs) with time-varying delays. Different from most of the existing papers, we model a memristor as a continuous system, and view switched MNNs as switched neural networks with uncertain time-varying parameters. Based on average dwell time technique, mode-dependent average dwell time technique and multiple Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional approach, two conditions are derived to design the switching signal and guarantee the exponential stability of the considered neural networks, which are delay-dependent and formulated by linear matrix inequalities (LMIs). Finally, the effectiveness of the theoretical results is demonstrated by two numerical examples. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Volume Averaging Study of the Capacitive Deionization Process in Homogeneous Porous Media

DOE PAGES

Gabitto, Jorge; Tsouris, Costas

2015-05-05

Ion storage in porous electrodes is important in applications such as energy storage by supercapacitors, water purification by capacitive deionization, extraction of energy from a salinity difference and heavy ion purification. In this paper, a model is presented to simulate the charge process in homogeneous porous media comprising big pores. It is based on a theory for capacitive charging by ideally polarizable porous electrodes without faradaic reactions or specific adsorption of ions. A volume averaging technique is used to derive the averaged transport equations in the limit of thin electrical double layers. Transport between the electrolyte solution and the chargedmore » wall is described using the Gouy–Chapman–Stern model. The effective transport parameters for isotropic porous media are calculated solving the corresponding closure problems. Finally, the source terms that appear in the average equations are calculated using numerical computations. An alternative way to deal with the source terms is proposed.« less

Average Dielectric Property Analysis of Complex Breast Tissue with Microwave Transmission Measurements

PubMed Central

Garrett, John D.; Fear, Elise C.

2015-01-01

Prior information about the average dielectric properties of breast tissue can be implemented in microwave breast imaging techniques to improve the results. Rapidly providing this information relies on acquiring a limited number of measurements and processing these measurement with efficient algorithms. Previously, systems were developed to measure the transmission of microwave signals through breast tissue, and simplifications were applied to estimate the average properties. These methods provided reasonable estimates, but they were sensitive to multipath. In this paper, a new technique to analyze the average properties of breast tissues while addressing multipath is presented. Three steps are used to process transmission measurements. First, the effects of multipath were removed. In cases where multipath is present, multiple peaks were observed in the time domain. A Tukey window was used to time-gate a single peak and, therefore, select a single path through the breast. Second, the antenna response was deconvolved from the transmission coefficient to isolate the response from the tissue in the breast interior. The antenna response was determined through simulations. Finally, the complex permittivity was estimated using an iterative approach. This technique was validated using simulated and physical homogeneous breast models and tested with results taken from a recent patient study. PMID:25585106

The stock-flow model of spatial data infrastructure development refined by fuzzy logic.

PubMed

Abdolmajidi, Ehsan; Harrie, Lars; Mansourian, Ali

2016-01-01

The system dynamics technique has been demonstrated to be a proper method by which to model and simulate the development of spatial data infrastructures (SDI). An SDI is a collaborative effort to manage and share spatial data at different political and administrative levels. It is comprised of various dynamically interacting quantitative and qualitative (linguistic) variables. To incorporate linguistic variables and their joint effects in an SDI-development model more effectively, we suggest employing fuzzy logic. Not all fuzzy models are able to model the dynamic behavior of SDIs properly. Therefore, this paper aims to investigate different fuzzy models and their suitability for modeling SDIs. To that end, two inference and two defuzzification methods were used for the fuzzification of the joint effect of two variables in an existing SDI model. The results show that the Average-Average inference and Center of Area defuzzification can better model the dynamics of SDI development.

The Objective Borderline Method: A Probabilistic Method for Standard Setting

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shulruf, Boaz; Poole, Phillippa; Jones, Philip; Wilkinson, Tim

2015-01-01

A new probability-based standard setting technique, the Objective Borderline Method (OBM), was introduced recently. This was based on a mathematical model of how test scores relate to student ability. The present study refined the model and tested it using 2500 simulated data-sets. The OBM was feasible to use. On average, the OBM performed well…

Fitness Promotion for Adolescent Girls: The Impact and Effectiveness of Promotional Material which Emphasizes the Slim Ideal.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shaw, Susan M.; Kemeny, Lidia

1989-01-01

Looked at techniques for promoting fitness participation among adolescent girls, in particular those which emphasize the slim ideal. Relative effectiveness of posters using different models (slim, average, overweight) and different messages (slimness, activity, health) was tested using 627 female high school students. Found slim model to be most…

A General Linear Model Approach to Adjusting the Cumulative GPA.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Young, John W.

A general linear model (GLM), using least-squares techniques, was used to develop a criterion measure to replace freshman year grade point average (GPA) in college admission predictive validity studies. Problems with the use of GPA include those associated with the combination of grades from different courses and disciplines into a single measure,…

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wardaya, P. D., E-mail: pongga.wardaya@utp.edu.my; Noh, K. A. B. M., E-mail: pongga.wardaya@utp.edu.my; Yusoff, W. I. B. W., E-mail: pongga.wardaya@utp.edu.my

This paper discusses a new approach for investigating the seismic wave velocity of rock, specifically carbonates, as affected by their pore structures. While the conventional routine of seismic velocity measurement highly depends on the extensive laboratory experiment, the proposed approach utilizes the digital rock physics view which lies on the numerical experiment. Thus, instead of using core sample, we use the thin section image of carbonate rock to measure the effective seismic wave velocity when travelling on it. In the numerical experiment, thin section images act as the medium on which wave propagation will be simulated. For the modeling, anmore » advanced technique based on artificial neural network was employed for building the velocity and density profile, replacing image's RGB pixel value with the seismic velocity and density of each rock constituent. Then, ultrasonic wave was simulated to propagate in the thin section image by using finite difference time domain method, based on assumption of an acoustic-isotropic medium. Effective velocities were drawn from the recorded signal and being compared to the velocity modeling from Wyllie time average model and Kuster-Toksoz rock physics model. To perform the modeling, image analysis routines were undertaken for quantifying the pore aspect ratio that is assumed to represent the rocks pore structure. In addition, porosity and mineral fraction required for velocity modeling were also quantified by using integrated neural network and image analysis technique. It was found that the Kuster-Toksoz gives the closer prediction to the measured velocity as compared to the Wyllie time average model. We also conclude that Wyllie time average that does not incorporate the pore structure parameter deviates significantly for samples having more than 40% porosity. Utilizing this approach we found a good agreement between numerical experiment and theoretically derived rock physics model for estimating the effective seismic wave velocity of rock.« less

Anatomy-based transmission factors for technique optimization in portable chest x-ray

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liptak, Christopher L.; Tovey, Deborah; Segars, William P.; Dong, Frank D.; Li, Xiang

2015-03-01

Portable x-ray examinations often account for a large percentage of all radiographic examinations. Currently, portable examinations do not employ automatic exposure control (AEC). To aid in the design of a size-specific technique chart, acrylic slabs of various thicknesses are often used to estimate x-ray transmission for patients of various body thicknesses. This approach, while simple, does not account for patient anatomy, tissue heterogeneity, and the attenuation properties of the human body. To better account for these factors, in this work, we determined x-ray transmission factors using computational patient models that are anatomically realistic. A Monte Carlo program was developed to model a portable x-ray system. Detailed modeling was done of the x-ray spectrum, detector positioning, collimation, and source-to-detector distance. Simulations were performed using 18 computational patient models from the extended cardiac-torso (XCAT) family (9 males, 9 females; age range: 2-58 years; weight range: 12-117 kg). The ratio of air kerma at the detector with and without a patient model was calculated as the transmission factor. Our study showed that the transmission factor decreased exponentially with increasing patient thickness. For the range of patient thicknesses examined (12-28 cm), the transmission factor ranged from approximately 21% to 1.9% when the air kerma used in the calculation represented an average over the entire imaging field of view. The transmission factor ranged from approximately 21% to 3.6% when the air kerma used in the calculation represented the average signals from two discrete AEC cells behind the lung fields. These exponential relationships may be used to optimize imaging techniques for patients of various body thicknesses to aid in the design of clinical technique charts.

Price of Fairness in Kidney Exchange

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-05-01

solver uses branch-and-price, a technique that proves optimality by in- crementally generating only a small part of the model during tree search [8...factors like fail- ure probability and chain position, as in the probabilistic model ). We will use this multiplicative re-weighting in our experiments in...Table 2 gives the average loss in efficiency for each of these models over multiple generated pool sizes, with 40 runs per pool size per model , under

Modeling aboveground biomass of Tamarix ramosissima in the Arkansas River Basin of Southeastern Colorado, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Evangelista, P.; Kumar, S.; Stohlgren, T.J.; Crall, A.W.; Newman, G.J.

2007-01-01

Predictive models of aboveground biomass of nonnative Tamarix ramosissima of various sizes were developed using destructive sampling techniques on 50 individuals and four 100-m2 plots. Each sample was measured for average height (m) of stems and canopy area (m2) prior to cutting, drying, and weighing. Five competing regression models (P < 0.05) were developed to estimate aboveground biomass of T. ramosissima using average height and/or canopy area measurements and were evaluated using Akaike's Information Criterion corrected for small sample size (AICc). Our best model (AICc = -148.69, ??AICc = 0) successfully predicted T. ramosissima aboveground biomass (R2 = 0.97) and used average height and canopy area as predictors. Our 2nd-best model, using the same predictors, was also successful in predicting aboveground biomass (R2 = 0.97, AICc = -131.71, ??AICc = 16.98). A 3rd model demonstrated high correlation between only aboveground biomass and canopy area (R2 = 0.95), while 2 additional models found high correlations between aboveground biomass and average height measurements only (R2 = 0.90 and 0.70, respectively). These models illustrate how simple field measurements, such as height and canopy area, can be used in allometric relationships to accurately predict aboveground biomass of T. ramosissima. Although a correction factor may be necessary for predictions at larger scales, the models presented will prove useful for many research and management initiatives.

Monthly streamflow forecasting with auto-regressive integrated moving average

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nasir, Najah; Samsudin, Ruhaidah; Shabri, Ani

2017-09-01

Forecasting of streamflow is one of the many ways that can contribute to better decision making for water resource management. The auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was selected in this research for monthly streamflow forecasting with enhancement made by pre-processing the data using singular spectrum analysis (SSA). This study also proposed an extension of the SSA technique to include a step where clustering was performed on the eigenvector pairs before reconstruction of the time series. The monthly streamflow data of Sungai Muda at Jeniang, Sungai Muda at Jambatan Syed Omar and Sungai Ketil at Kuala Pegang was gathered from the Department of Irrigation and Drainage Malaysia. A ratio of 9:1 was used to divide the data into training and testing sets. The ARIMA, SSA-ARIMA and Clustered SSA-ARIMA models were all developed in R software. Results from the proposed model are then compared to a conventional auto-regressive integrated moving average model using the root-mean-square error and mean absolute error values. It was found that the proposed model can outperform the conventional model.

Model averaging and muddled multimodel inferences.

PubMed

Cade, Brian S

2015-09-01

Three flawed practices associated with model averaging coefficients for predictor variables in regression models commonly occur when making multimodel inferences in analyses of ecological data. Model-averaged regression coefficients based on Akaike information criterion (AIC) weights have been recommended for addressing model uncertainty but they are not valid, interpretable estimates of partial effects for individual predictors when there is multicollinearity among the predictor variables. Multicollinearity implies that the scaling of units in the denominators of the regression coefficients may change across models such that neither the parameters nor their estimates have common scales, therefore averaging them makes no sense. The associated sums of AIC model weights recommended to assess relative importance of individual predictors are really a measure of relative importance of models, with little information about contributions by individual predictors compared to other measures of relative importance based on effects size or variance reduction. Sometimes the model-averaged regression coefficients for predictor variables are incorrectly used to make model-averaged predictions of the response variable when the models are not linear in the parameters. I demonstrate the issues with the first two practices using the college grade point average example extensively analyzed by Burnham and Anderson. I show how partial standard deviations of the predictor variables can be used to detect changing scales of their estimates with multicollinearity. Standardizing estimates based on partial standard deviations for their variables can be used to make the scaling of the estimates commensurate across models, a necessary but not sufficient condition for model averaging of the estimates to be sensible. A unimodal distribution of estimates and valid interpretation of individual parameters are additional requisite conditions. The standardized estimates or equivalently the t statistics on unstandardized estimates also can be used to provide more informative measures of relative importance than sums of AIC weights. Finally, I illustrate how seriously compromised statistical interpretations and predictions can be for all three of these flawed practices by critiquing their use in a recent species distribution modeling technique developed for predicting Greater Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) distribution in Colorado, USA. These model averaging issues are common in other ecological literature and ought to be discontinued if we are to make effective scientific contributions to ecological knowledge and conservation of natural resources.

Model averaging and muddled multimodel inferences

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cade, Brian S.

2015-01-01

Three flawed practices associated with model averaging coefficients for predictor variables in regression models commonly occur when making multimodel inferences in analyses of ecological data. Model-averaged regression coefficients based on Akaike information criterion (AIC) weights have been recommended for addressing model uncertainty but they are not valid, interpretable estimates of partial effects for individual predictors when there is multicollinearity among the predictor variables. Multicollinearity implies that the scaling of units in the denominators of the regression coefficients may change across models such that neither the parameters nor their estimates have common scales, therefore averaging them makes no sense. The associated sums of AIC model weights recommended to assess relative importance of individual predictors are really a measure of relative importance of models, with little information about contributions by individual predictors compared to other measures of relative importance based on effects size or variance reduction. Sometimes the model-averaged regression coefficients for predictor variables are incorrectly used to make model-averaged predictions of the response variable when the models are not linear in the parameters. I demonstrate the issues with the first two practices using the college grade point average example extensively analyzed by Burnham and Anderson. I show how partial standard deviations of the predictor variables can be used to detect changing scales of their estimates with multicollinearity. Standardizing estimates based on partial standard deviations for their variables can be used to make the scaling of the estimates commensurate across models, a necessary but not sufficient condition for model averaging of the estimates to be sensible. A unimodal distribution of estimates and valid interpretation of individual parameters are additional requisite conditions. The standardized estimates or equivalently the tstatistics on unstandardized estimates also can be used to provide more informative measures of relative importance than sums of AIC weights. Finally, I illustrate how seriously compromised statistical interpretations and predictions can be for all three of these flawed practices by critiquing their use in a recent species distribution modeling technique developed for predicting Greater Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) distribution in Colorado, USA. These model averaging issues are common in other ecological literature and ought to be discontinued if we are to make effective scientific contributions to ecological knowledge and conservation of natural resources.

Modeling the Capacitive Deionization Process in Dual-Porosity Electrodes

DOE PAGES

Gabitto, Jorge; Tsouris, Costas

2016-04-28

In many areas of the world, there is a need to increase water availability. Capacitive deionization (CDI) is an electrochemical water treatment process that can be a viable alternative for treating water and for saving energy. A model is presented to simulate the CDI process in heterogeneous porous media comprising two different pore sizes. It is based on a theory for capacitive charging by ideally polarizable porous electrodes without Faradaic reactions or specific adsorption of ions. A two steps volume averaging technique is used to derive the averaged transport equations in the limit of thin electrical double layers. A one-equationmore » model based on the principle of local equilibrium is derived. The constraints determining the range of application of the one-equation model are presented. The effective transport parameters for isotropic porous media are calculated solving the corresponding closure problems. The source terms that appear in the average equations are calculated using theoretical derivations. The global diffusivity is calculated by solving the closure problem.« less

Comparison of Techniques to Estimate Ammonia Emissions at Cattle Feedlots Using Time-Averaged and Instantaneous Concentration Measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shonkwiler, K. B.; Ham, J. M.; Williams, C. M.

2013-12-01

Ammonia (NH3) that volatilizes from confined animal feeding operations (CAFOs) can form aerosols that travel long distances where such aerosols can deposit in sensitive regions, potentially causing harm to local ecosystems. However, quantifying the emissions of ammonia from CAFOs through direct measurement is very difficult and costly to perform. A system was therefore developed at Colorado State University for conditionally sampling NH3 concentrations based on weather parameters measured using inexpensive equipment. These systems use passive diffusive cartridges (Radiello, Sigma-Aldrich, St. Louis, MO, USA) that provide time-averaged concentrations representative of a two-week deployment period. The samplers are exposed by a robotic mechanism so they are only deployed when wind is from the direction of the CAFO at 1.4 m/s or greater. These concentration data, along with other weather variables measured during each sampler deployment period, can then be used in a simple inverse model (FIDES, UMR Environnement et Grandes Cultures, Thiverval-Grignon, France) to estimate emissions. There are not yet any direct comparisons of the modeled emissions derived from time-averaged concentration data to modeled emissions from more sophisticated backward Lagrangian stochastic (bLs) techniques that utilize instantaneous measurements of NH3 concentration. In the summer and autumn of 2013, a suite of robotic passive sampler systems were deployed at a 25,000-head cattle feedlot at the same time as an open-path infrared (IR) diode laser (GasFinder2, Boreal Laser Inc., Edmonton, Alberta, Canada) which continuously measured ammonia concentrations instantaneously over a 225-m path. This particular laser is utilized in agricultural settings, and in combination with a bLs model (WindTrax, Thunder Beach Scientific, Inc., Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada), has become a common method for estimating NH3 emissions from a variety of agricultural and industrial operations. This study will first compare the ammonia concentrations measured with the Radiello system to that measured with the long-path IR laser. Second, NH3 emissions estimated using the simple inverse model (FIDES) and the time-averaged data will be compared to emissions derived from the bLS model (WindTrax) using the laser-based NH3 data. Results could lead to a more cost-efficient and simpler technique for monitoring ammonia fluxes from of CAFOs and other strong areal sources.

Comparison on three classification techniques for sex estimation from the bone length of Asian children below 19 years old: an analysis using different group of ages.

PubMed

Darmawan, M F; Yusuf, Suhaila M; Kadir, M R Abdul; Haron, H

2015-02-01

Sex estimation is used in forensic anthropology to assist the identification of individual remains. However, the estimation techniques tend to be unique and applicable only to a certain population. This paper analyzed sex estimation on living individual child below 19 years old using the length of 19 bones of left hand applied for three classification techniques, which were Discriminant Function Analysis (DFA), Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) multilayer perceptron. These techniques were carried out on X-ray images of the left hand taken from an Asian population data set. All the 19 bones of the left hand were measured using Free Image software, and all the techniques were performed using MATLAB. The group of age "16-19" years old and "7-9" years old were the groups that could be used for sex estimation with as their average of accuracy percentage was above 80%. ANN model was the best classification technique with the highest average of accuracy percentage in the two groups of age compared to other classification techniques. The results show that each classification technique has the best accuracy percentage on each different group of age. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Electrosurgical vessel sealing tissue temperature: experimental measurement and finite element modeling.

PubMed

Chen, Roland K; Chastagner, Matthew W; Dodde, Robert E; Shih, Albert J

2013-02-01

The temporal and spatial tissue temperature profile in electrosurgical vessel sealing was experimentally measured and modeled using finite element modeling (FEM). Vessel sealing procedures are often performed near the neurovascular bundle and may cause collateral neural thermal damage. Therefore, the heat generated during electrosurgical vessel sealing is of concern among surgeons. Tissue temperature in an in vivo porcine femoral artery sealed using a bipolar electrosurgical device was studied. Three FEM techniques were incorporated to model the tissue evaporation, water loss, and fusion by manipulating the specific heat, electrical conductivity, and electrical contact resistance, respectively. These three techniques enable the FEM to accurately predict the vessel sealing tissue temperature profile. The averaged discrepancy between the experimentally measured temperature and the FEM predicted temperature at three thermistor locations is less than 7%. The maximum error is 23.9%. Effects of the three FEM techniques are also quantified.

Computation of bedrock-aquifer recharge in northern Westchester County, New York, and chemical quality of water from selected bedrock wells

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wolcott, Stephen W.; Snow, Robert F.

1995-01-01

An empirical technique was used to calculate the recharge to bedrock aquifers in northern Westchester County. This method requires delineation of ground-water divides within the aquifer area and values for (1) the extent of till and exposed bedrock within the aquifer area, and (2) mean annual runoff. This report contains maps and data needed for calculation of recharge in any given area within the 165square-mile study area. Recharge was computed by this technique for a 93-square-mile part of the study area and used a ground-water-flow model to evaluate the reliability of the method. A two-layer, steady-state model of the selected area was calibrated. The area consists predominantly of bedrock overlain by small localized deposits of till and stratified drill Ground-water-level and streamflow data collected in mid-November 1987 were used for model calibration. The data set approximates average annual conditions. The model was calibrated from (1) estimates of recharge as computed through the empirical technique, and (2) a range of values for hydrologic properties derived from aquifer tests and published literature. Recharge values used for model simulation appear to be reasonable for average steady-state conditions. Water-quality data were collected from 53 selected bedrock wells throughout northern Westchester County to define the background ground-water quality. The constituents and properties for which samples were analyzed included major cations and anions, temperature, pH, specific conductance, and hardness. Results indicate little difference in water quality among the bedrock aquifers within the study area. Ground water is mainly the calcium-bicarbonate type and is moderately hard. Average concentrations of sodium, sulfate, chloride, nitrate, iron, and manganese were within acceptable limits established by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency for domestic water supply.

The Gaussian atmospheric transport model and its sensitivity to the joint frequency distribution and parametric variability.

PubMed

Hamby, D M

2002-01-01

Reconstructed meteorological data are often used in some form of long-term wind trajectory models for estimating the historical impacts of atmospheric emissions. Meteorological data for the straight-line Gaussian plume model are put into a joint frequency distribution, a three-dimensional array describing atmospheric wind direction, speed, and stability. Methods using the Gaussian model and joint frequency distribution inputs provide reasonable estimates of downwind concentration and have been shown to be accurate to within a factor of four. We have used multiple joint frequency distributions and probabilistic techniques to assess the Gaussian plume model and determine concentration-estimate uncertainty and model sensitivity. We examine the straight-line Gaussian model while calculating both sector-averaged and annual-averaged relative concentrations at various downwind distances. The sector-average concentration model was found to be most sensitive to wind speed, followed by horizontal dispersion (sigmaZ), the importance of which increases as stability increases. The Gaussian model is not sensitive to stack height uncertainty. Precision of the frequency data appears to be most important to meteorological inputs when calculations are made for near-field receptors, increasing as stack height increases.

Solute redistribution in dendritic solidification with diffusion in the solid

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ganesan, S.; Poirier, D. R.

1989-01-01

An investigation of solute redistribution during dendritic solidification with diffusion in the solid has been performed using numerical techniques. The extent of diffusion is characterized by the instantaneous and average diffusion parameters. These parameters are functions of the diffusion Fourier number, the partition ratio and the fraction solid. Numerical results are presented as an approximate model, which is used to predict the average diffusion parameter and calculate the composition of the interdendritic liquid during solidification.

The average magnetic field draping and consistent plasma properties of the Venus magnetotail

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mccomas, D. J.; Spence, H. E.; Russell, C. T.; Saunders, M. A.

1986-01-01

The detailed average draping pattern of the magnetic field in the deep Venus magnetotail is examined. The variability of the data ordered by spatial location is studied, and the groundwork is laid for developing a coordinate system which measured locations with respect to the tail structures. The reconstruction of the tail in the presence of flapping using a new technique is shown, and the average variations in the field components are examined, including the average field vectors, cross-tail current density distribution, and J x B forces as functions of location across the tail. The average downtail velocity is derived as a function of distance, and a simple model based on the field variations is defined from which the average plasma acceleration is obtained as a function of distance, density, and temperature.

A rapid radiative transfer model for reflection of solar radiation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Xiang, X.; Smith, E. A.; Justus, C. G.

1994-01-01

A rapid analytical radiative transfer model for reflection of solar radiation in plane-parallel atmospheres is developed based on the Sobolev approach and the delta function transformation technique. A distinct advantage of this model over alternative two-stream solutions is that in addition to yielding the irradiance components, which turn out to be mathematically equivalent to the delta-Eddington approximation, the radiance field can also be expanded in a mathematically consistent fashion. Tests with the model against a more precise multistream discrete ordinate model over a wide range of input parameters demonstrate that the new approximate method typically produces average radiance differences of less than 5%, with worst average differences of approximately 10%-15%. By the same token, the computational speed of the new model is some tens to thousands times faster than that of the more precise model when its stream resolution is set to generate precise calculations.

Model selection and model averaging in phylogenetics: advantages of akaike information criterion and bayesian approaches over likelihood ratio tests.

PubMed

Posada, David; Buckley, Thomas R

2004-10-01

Model selection is a topic of special relevance in molecular phylogenetics that affects many, if not all, stages of phylogenetic inference. Here we discuss some fundamental concepts and techniques of model selection in the context of phylogenetics. We start by reviewing different aspects of the selection of substitution models in phylogenetics from a theoretical, philosophical and practical point of view, and summarize this comparison in table format. We argue that the most commonly implemented model selection approach, the hierarchical likelihood ratio test, is not the optimal strategy for model selection in phylogenetics, and that approaches like the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and Bayesian methods offer important advantages. In particular, the latter two methods are able to simultaneously compare multiple nested or nonnested models, assess model selection uncertainty, and allow for the estimation of phylogenies and model parameters using all available models (model-averaged inference or multimodel inference). We also describe how the relative importance of the different parameters included in substitution models can be depicted. To illustrate some of these points, we have applied AIC-based model averaging to 37 mitochondrial DNA sequences from the subgenus Ohomopterus(genus Carabus) ground beetles described by Sota and Vogler (2001).

MRI-based modeling for radiocarpal joint mechanics: validation criteria and results for four specimen-specific models.

PubMed

Fischer, Kenneth J; Johnson, Joshua E; Waller, Alexander J; McIff, Terence E; Toby, E Bruce; Bilgen, Mehmet

2011-10-01

The objective of this study was to validate the MRI-based joint contact modeling methodology in the radiocarpal joints by comparison of model results with invasive specimen-specific radiocarpal contact measurements from four cadaver experiments. We used a single validation criterion for multiple outcome measures to characterize the utility and overall validity of the modeling approach. For each experiment, a Pressurex film and a Tekscan sensor were sequentially placed into the radiocarpal joints during simulated grasp. Computer models were constructed based on MRI visualization of the cadaver specimens without load. Images were also acquired during the loaded configuration used with the direct experimental measurements. Geometric surface models of the radius, scaphoid and lunate (including cartilage) were constructed from the images acquired without the load. The carpal bone motions from the unloaded state to the loaded state were determined using a series of 3D image registrations. Cartilage thickness was assumed uniform at 1.0 mm with an effective compressive modulus of 4 MPa. Validation was based on experimental versus model contact area, contact force, average contact pressure and peak contact pressure for the radioscaphoid and radiolunate articulations. Contact area was also measured directly from images acquired under load and compared to the experimental and model data. Qualitatively, there was good correspondence between the MRI-based model data and experimental data, with consistent relative size, shape and location of radioscaphoid and radiolunate contact regions. Quantitative data from the model generally compared well with the experimental data for all specimens. Contact area from the MRI-based model was very similar to the contact area measured directly from the images. For all outcome measures except average and peak pressures, at least two specimen models met the validation criteria with respect to experimental measurements for both articulations. Only the model for one specimen met the validation criteria for average and peak pressure of both articulations; however the experimental measures for peak pressure also exhibited high variability. MRI-based modeling can reliably be used for evaluating the contact area and contact force with similar confidence as in currently available experimental techniques. Average contact pressure, and peak contact pressure were more variable from all measurement techniques, and these measures from MRI-based modeling should be used with some caution.

Screening-level estimates of mass discharge uncertainty from point measurement methods

EPA Science Inventory

The uncertainty of mass discharge measurements associated with point-scale measurement techniques was investigated by deriving analytical solutions for the mass discharge coefficient of variation for two simplified, conceptual models. In the first case, a depth-averaged domain w...

Advancing statistical analysis of ambulatory assessment data in the study of addictive behavior: A primer on three person-oriented techniques.

PubMed

Foster, Katherine T; Beltz, Adriene M

2018-08-01

Ambulatory assessment (AA) methodologies have the potential to increase understanding and treatment of addictive behavior in seemingly unprecedented ways, due in part, to their emphasis on intensive repeated assessments of an individual's addictive behavior in context. But, many analytic techniques traditionally applied to AA data - techniques that average across people and time - do not fully leverage this potential. In an effort to take advantage of the individualized, temporal nature of AA data on addictive behavior, the current paper considers three underutilized person-oriented analytic techniques: multilevel modeling, p-technique, and group iterative multiple model estimation. After reviewing prevailing analytic techniques, each person-oriented technique is presented, AA data specifications are mentioned, an example analysis using generated data is provided, and advantages and limitations are discussed; the paper closes with a brief comparison across techniques. Increasing use of person-oriented techniques will substantially enhance inferences that can be drawn from AA data on addictive behavior and has implications for the development of individualized interventions. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Estimating wildland fire rate of spread in a spatially nonuniform environment

Treesearch

Francis M Fujioka

1985-01-01

Estimating rate of fire spread is a key element in planning for effective fire control. Land managers use the Rothermel spread model, but the model assumptions are violated when fuel, weather, and topography are nonuniform. This paper compares three averaging techniques--arithmetic mean of spread rates, spread based on mean fuel conditions, and harmonic mean of spread...

Estimating the Probability of Rare Events Occurring Using a Local Model Averaging.

PubMed

Chen, Jin-Hua; Chen, Chun-Shu; Huang, Meng-Fan; Lin, Hung-Chih

2016-10-01

In statistical applications, logistic regression is a popular method for analyzing binary data accompanied by explanatory variables. But when one of the two outcomes is rare, the estimation of model parameters has been shown to be severely biased and hence estimating the probability of rare events occurring based on a logistic regression model would be inaccurate. In this article, we focus on estimating the probability of rare events occurring based on logistic regression models. Instead of selecting a best model, we propose a local model averaging procedure based on a data perturbation technique applied to different information criteria to obtain different probability estimates of rare events occurring. Then an approximately unbiased estimator of Kullback-Leibler loss is used to choose the best one among them. We design complete simulations to show the effectiveness of our approach. For illustration, a necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) data set is analyzed. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Radiometric ratio characterization for low-to-mid CPV modules operating in variable irradiance conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vorndran, Shelby; Russo, Juan; Zhang, Deming; Gordon, Michael; Kostuk, Raymond

2012-10-01

In this work, a concentrating photovoltaic (CPV) design methodology is proposed which aims to maximize system efficiency for a given irradiance condition. In this technique, the acceptance angle of the system is radiometrically matched to the angular spread of the site's average irradiance conditions using a simple geometric ratio. The optical efficiency of CPV systems from flat-plate to high-concentration is plotted at all irradiance conditions. Concentrator systems are measured outdoors in various irradiance conditions to test the methodology. This modeling technique is valuable at the design stage to determine the ideal level of concentration for a CPV module. It requires only two inputs: the acceptance angle profile of the system and the site's average direct and diffuse irradiance fractions. Acceptance angle can be determined by raytracing or testing a fabricated prototype in the lab with a solar simulator. The average irradiance conditions can be found in the Typical Metrological Year (TMY3) database. Additionally, the information gained from this technique can be used to determine tracking tolerance, quantify power loss during an isolated weather event, and do more sophisticated analysis such as I-V curve simulation.

Swimmer illness associated with marine water exposure and water quality indicators: impact of widely used assumptions

EPA Science Inventory

Studies of health risks associated with recreational water exposure require investigators to make choices about water quality indicator averaging techniques, exposure definitions, follow-up periods, and model specifications; but, investigators seldom describe the impact of these ...

Comparison of breathing gated CT images generated using a 5DCT technique and a commercial clinical protocol in a porcine model

PubMed Central

O’Connell, Dylan P.; Thomas, David H.; Dou, Tai H.; Lamb, James M.; Feingold, Franklin; Low, Daniel A.; Fuld, Matthew K.; Sieren, Jered P.; Sloan, Chelsea M.; Shirk, Melissa A.; Hoffman, Eric A.; Hofmann, Christian

2015-01-01

Purpose: To demonstrate that a “5DCT” technique which utilizes fast helical acquisition yields the same respiratory-gated images as a commercial technique for regular, mechanically produced breathing cycles. Methods: Respiratory-gated images of an anesthetized, mechanically ventilated pig were generated using a Siemens low-pitch helical protocol and 5DCT for a range of breathing rates and amplitudes and with standard and low dose imaging protocols. 5DCT reconstructions were independently evaluated by measuring the distances between tissue positions predicted by a 5D motion model and those measured using deformable registration, as well by reconstructing the originally acquired scans. Discrepancies between the 5DCT and commercial reconstructions were measured using landmark correspondences. Results: The mean distance between model predicted tissue positions and deformably registered tissue positions over the nine datasets was 0.65 ± 0.28 mm. Reconstructions of the original scans were on average accurate to 0.78 ± 0.57 mm. Mean landmark displacement between the commercial and 5DCT images was 1.76 ± 1.25 mm while the maximum lung tissue motion over the breathing cycle had a mean value of 27.2 ± 4.6 mm. An image composed of the average of 30 deformably registered images acquired with a low dose protocol had 6 HU image noise (single standard deviation) in the heart versus 31 HU for the commercial images. Conclusions: An end to end evaluation of the 5DCT technique was conducted through landmark based comparison to breathing gated images acquired with a commercial protocol under highly regular ventilation. The techniques were found to agree to within 2 mm for most respiratory phases and most points in the lung. PMID:26133604

Computational technique and performance of Transient Inundation Model for Rivers--2 Dimensional (TRIM2RD) : a depth-averaged two-dimensional flow model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fulford, Janice M.

2003-01-01

A numerical computer model, Transient Inundation Model for Rivers -- 2 Dimensional (TrimR2D), that solves the two-dimensional depth-averaged flow equations is documented and discussed. The model uses a semi-implicit, semi-Lagrangian finite-difference method. It is a variant of the Trim model and has been used successfully in estuarine environments such as San Francisco Bay. The abilities of the model are documented for three scenarios: uniform depth flows, laboratory dam-break flows, and large-scale riverine flows. The model can start computations from a ?dry? bed and converge to accurate solutions. Inflows are expressed as source terms, which limits the use of the model to sufficiently long reaches where the flow reaches equilibrium with the channel. The data sets used by the investigation demonstrate that the model accurately propagates flood waves through long river reaches and simulates dam breaks with abrupt water-surface changes.

Simulation of Synthetic Jets in Quiescent Air Using Unsteady Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes Equations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vatsa, Veer N.; Turkel, Eli

2006-01-01

We apply an unsteady Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (URANS) solver for the simulation of a synthetic jet created by a single diaphragm piezoelectric actuator in quiescent air. This configuration was designated as Case 1 for the CFDVAL2004 workshop held at Williamsburg, Virginia, in March 2004. Time-averaged and instantaneous data for this case were obtained at NASA Langley Research Center, using multiple measurement techniques. Computational results for this case using one-equation Spalart-Allmaras and two-equation Menter's turbulence models are presented along with the experimental data. The effect of grid refinement, preconditioning and time-step variation are also examined in this paper.

Using soft computing techniques to predict corrected air permeability using Thomeer parameters, air porosity and grain density

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nooruddin, Hasan A.; Anifowose, Fatai; Abdulraheem, Abdulazeez

2014-03-01

Soft computing techniques are recently becoming very popular in the oil industry. A number of computational intelligence-based predictive methods have been widely applied in the industry with high prediction capabilities. Some of the popular methods include feed-forward neural networks, radial basis function network, generalized regression neural network, functional networks, support vector regression and adaptive network fuzzy inference system. A comparative study among most popular soft computing techniques is presented using a large dataset published in literature describing multimodal pore systems in the Arab D formation. The inputs to the models are air porosity, grain density, and Thomeer parameters obtained using mercury injection capillary pressure profiles. Corrected air permeability is the target variable. Applying developed permeability models in recent reservoir characterization workflow ensures consistency between micro and macro scale information represented mainly by Thomeer parameters and absolute permeability. The dataset was divided into two parts with 80% of data used for training and 20% for testing. The target permeability variable was transformed to the logarithmic scale as a pre-processing step and to show better correlations with the input variables. Statistical and graphical analysis of the results including permeability cross-plots and detailed error measures were created. In general, the comparative study showed very close results among the developed models. The feed-forward neural network permeability model showed the lowest average relative error, average absolute relative error, standard deviations of error and root means squares making it the best model for such problems. Adaptive network fuzzy inference system also showed very good results.

MAX-DOAS tropospheric nitrogen dioxide column measurements compared with the Lotos-Euros air quality model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vlemmix, T.; Eskes, H. J.; Piters, A. J. M.; Schaap, M.; Sauter, F. J.; Kelder, H.; Levelt, P. F.

2015-02-01

A 14-month data set of MAX-DOAS (Multi-Axis Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy) tropospheric NO2 column observations in De Bilt, the Netherlands, has been compared with the regional air quality model Lotos-Euros. The model was run on a 7×7 km2 grid, the same resolution as the emission inventory used. A study was performed to assess the effect of clouds on the retrieval accuracy of the MAX-DOAS observations. Good agreement was found between modeled and measured tropospheric NO2 columns, with an average difference of less than 1% of the average tropospheric column (14.5 · 1015 molec cm-2). The comparisons show little cloud cover dependence after cloud corrections for which ceilometer data were used. Hourly differences between observations and model show a Gaussian behavior with a standard deviation (σ) of 5.5 · 1015 molec cm-2. For daily averages of tropospheric NO2 columns, a correlation of 0.72 was found for all observations, and 0.79 for cloud free conditions. The measured and modeled tropospheric NO2 columns have an almost identical distribution over the wind direction. A significant difference between model and measurements was found for the average weekly cycle, which shows a much stronger decrease during the weekend for the observations; for the diurnal cycle, the observed range is about twice as large as the modeled range. The results of the comparison demonstrate that averaged over a long time period, the tropospheric NO2 column observations are representative for a large spatial area despite the fact that they were obtained in an urban region. This makes the MAX-DOAS technique especially suitable for validation of satellite observations and air quality models in urban regions.

Numerical Modeling of the Vertical Heat Transport Through the Diffusive Layer of the Arctic Ocean

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-03-01

vertical heat transport through Arctic thermohaline staircases over time . Re-engaging in the inverse modeling technique that was started by Chaplin ...reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instruction, searching...function. ........................................42 Figure 23. Temperature—Salinity plots for ITPs 1-6 (After Chaplin 2009

LITHO1.0: An Updated Crust and Lithosphere Model of the Earth

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-09-01

wc arc uncertain what causes the remainder of the discrepancy. The measurement discrepancies are much smaller than the signal in the data, and the...short-period group velocity data measured with a new technique which are sensitive to lid properties as well as crustal thickness and average...most progress was made on surface-wave measurements . We use a cluster analysis technique to measure surface-wave group velocity from lOmHz to 40mHz

A hybrid SEA/modal technique for modeling structural-acoustic interior noise in rotorcraft.

PubMed

Jayachandran, V; Bonilha, M W

2003-03-01

This paper describes a hybrid technique that combines Statistical Energy Analysis (SEA) predictions for structural vibration with acoustic modal summation techniques to predict interior noise levels in rotorcraft. The method was applied for predicting the sound field inside a mock-up of the interior panel system of the Sikorsky S-92 helicopter. The vibration amplitudes of the frame and panel systems were predicted using a detailed SEA model and these were used as inputs to the model of the interior acoustic space. The spatial distribution of the vibration field on individual panels, and their coupling to the acoustic space were modeled using stochastic techniques. Leakage and nonresonant transmission components were accounted for using space-averaged values obtained from a SEA model of the complete structural-acoustic system. Since the cabin geometry was quite simple, the modeling of the interior acoustic space was performed using a standard modal summation technique. Sound pressure levels predicted by this approach at specific microphone locations were compared with measured data. Agreement within 3 dB in one-third octave bands above 40 Hz was observed. A large discrepancy in the one-third octave band in which the first acoustic mode is resonant (31.5 Hz) was observed. Reasons for such a discrepancy are discussed in the paper. The developed technique provides a method for modeling helicopter cabin interior noise in the frequency mid-range where neither FEA nor SEA is individually effective or accurate.

APOLLO: a quality assessment service for single and multiple protein models.

PubMed

Wang, Zheng; Eickholt, Jesse; Cheng, Jianlin

2011-06-15

We built a web server named APOLLO, which can evaluate the absolute global and local qualities of a single protein model using machine learning methods or the global and local qualities of a pool of models using a pair-wise comparison approach. Based on our evaluations on 107 CASP9 (Critical Assessment of Techniques for Protein Structure Prediction) targets, the predicted quality scores generated from our machine learning and pair-wise methods have an average per-target correlation of 0.671 and 0.917, respectively, with the true model quality scores. Based on our test on 92 CASP9 targets, our predicted absolute local qualities have an average difference of 2.60 Å with the actual distances to native structure. http://sysbio.rnet.missouri.edu/apollo/. Single and pair-wise global quality assessment software is also available at the site.

Estimation of Cloud Fraction Profile in Shallow Convection Using a Scanning Cloud Radar

DOE PAGES

Oue, Mariko; Kollias, Pavlos; North, Kirk W.; ...

2016-10-18

Large spatial heterogeneities in shallow convection result in uncertainties in estimations of domain-averaged cloud fraction profiles (CFP). This issue is addressed using large eddy simulations of shallow convection over land coupled with a radar simulator. Results indicate that zenith profiling observations are inadequate to provide reliable CFP estimates. Use of Scanning Cloud Radar (SCR), performing a sequence of cross-wind horizon-to-horizon scans, is not straightforward due to the strong dependence of radar sensitivity to target distance. An objective method for estimating domain-averaged CFP is proposed that uses observed statistics of SCR hydrometeor detection with height to estimate optimum sampling regions. Thismore » method shows good agreement with the model CFP. Results indicate that CFP estimates require more than 35 min of SCR scans to converge on the model domain average. Lastly, the proposed technique is expected to improve our ability to compare model output with cloud radar observations in shallow cumulus cloud conditions.« less

Wavelet regression model in forecasting crude oil price

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamid, Mohd Helmie; Shabri, Ani

2017-05-01

This study presents the performance of wavelet multiple linear regression (WMLR) technique in daily crude oil forecasting. WMLR model was developed by integrating the discrete wavelet transform (DWT) and multiple linear regression (MLR) model. The original time series was decomposed to sub-time series with different scales by wavelet theory. Correlation analysis was conducted to assist in the selection of optimal decomposed components as inputs for the WMLR model. The daily WTI crude oil price series has been used in this study to test the prediction capability of the proposed model. The forecasting performance of WMLR model were also compared with regular multiple linear regression (MLR), Autoregressive Moving Average (ARIMA) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) using root mean square errors (RMSE) and mean absolute errors (MAE). Based on the experimental results, it appears that the WMLR model performs better than the other forecasting technique tested in this study.

The thin section rock physics: Modeling and measurement of seismic wave velocity on the slice of carbonates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wardaya, P. D.; Noh, K. A. B. M.; Yusoff, W. I. B. W.; Ridha, S.; Nurhandoko, B. E. B.

2014-09-01

This paper discusses a new approach for investigating the seismic wave velocity of rock, specifically carbonates, as affected by their pore structures. While the conventional routine of seismic velocity measurement highly depends on the extensive laboratory experiment, the proposed approach utilizes the digital rock physics view which lies on the numerical experiment. Thus, instead of using core sample, we use the thin section image of carbonate rock to measure the effective seismic wave velocity when travelling on it. In the numerical experiment, thin section images act as the medium on which wave propagation will be simulated. For the modeling, an advanced technique based on artificial neural network was employed for building the velocity and density profile, replacing image's RGB pixel value with the seismic velocity and density of each rock constituent. Then, ultrasonic wave was simulated to propagate in the thin section image by using finite difference time domain method, based on assumption of an acoustic-isotropic medium. Effective velocities were drawn from the recorded signal and being compared to the velocity modeling from Wyllie time average model and Kuster-Toksoz rock physics model. To perform the modeling, image analysis routines were undertaken for quantifying the pore aspect ratio that is assumed to represent the rocks pore structure. In addition, porosity and mineral fraction required for velocity modeling were also quantified by using integrated neural network and image analysis technique. It was found that the Kuster-Toksoz gives the closer prediction to the measured velocity as compared to the Wyllie time average model. We also conclude that Wyllie time average that does not incorporate the pore structure parameter deviates significantly for samples having more than 40% porosity. Utilizing this approach we found a good agreement between numerical experiment and theoretically derived rock physics model for estimating the effective seismic wave velocity of rock.

Comparing methods for modelling spreading cell fronts.

PubMed

Markham, Deborah C; Simpson, Matthew J; Maini, Philip K; Gaffney, Eamonn A; Baker, Ruth E

2014-07-21

Spreading cell fronts play an essential role in many physiological processes. Classically, models of this process are based on the Fisher-Kolmogorov equation; however, such continuum representations are not always suitable as they do not explicitly represent behaviour at the level of individual cells. Additionally, many models examine only the large time asymptotic behaviour, where a travelling wave front with a constant speed has been established. Many experiments, such as a scratch assay, never display this asymptotic behaviour, and in these cases the transient behaviour must be taken into account. We examine the transient and the asymptotic behaviour of moving cell fronts using techniques that go beyond the continuum approximation via a volume-excluding birth-migration process on a regular one-dimensional lattice. We approximate the averaged discrete results using three methods: (i) mean-field, (ii) pair-wise, and (iii) one-hole approximations. We discuss the performance of these methods, in comparison to the averaged discrete results, for a range of parameter space, examining both the transient and asymptotic behaviours. The one-hole approximation, based on techniques from statistical physics, is not capable of predicting transient behaviour but provides excellent agreement with the asymptotic behaviour of the averaged discrete results, provided that cells are proliferating fast enough relative to their rate of migration. The mean-field and pair-wise approximations give indistinguishable asymptotic results, which agree with the averaged discrete results when cells are migrating much more rapidly than they are proliferating. The pair-wise approximation performs better in the transient region than does the mean-field, despite having the same asymptotic behaviour. Our results show that each approximation only works in specific situations, thus we must be careful to use a suitable approximation for a given system, otherwise inaccurate predictions could be made. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Development and Application of Agglomerated Multigrid Methods for Complex Geometries

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nishikawa, Hiroaki; Diskin, Boris; Thomas, James L.

2010-01-01

We report progress in the development of agglomerated multigrid techniques for fully un- structured grids in three dimensions, building upon two previous studies focused on efficiently solving a model diffusion equation. We demonstrate a robust fully-coarsened agglomerated multigrid technique for 3D complex geometries, incorporating the following key developments: consistent and stable coarse-grid discretizations, a hierarchical agglomeration scheme, and line-agglomeration/relaxation using prismatic-cell discretizations in the highly-stretched grid regions. A signi cant speed-up in computer time is demonstrated for a model diffusion problem, the Euler equations, and the Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations for 3D realistic complex geometries.

Refining Markov state models for conformational dynamics using ensemble-averaged data and time-series trajectories

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matsunaga, Y.; Sugita, Y.

2018-06-01

A data-driven modeling scheme is proposed for conformational dynamics of biomolecules based on molecular dynamics (MD) simulations and experimental measurements. In this scheme, an initial Markov State Model (MSM) is constructed from MD simulation trajectories, and then, the MSM parameters are refined using experimental measurements through machine learning techniques. The second step can reduce the bias of MD simulation results due to inaccurate force-field parameters. Either time-series trajectories or ensemble-averaged data are available as a training data set in the scheme. Using a coarse-grained model of a dye-labeled polyproline-20, we compare the performance of machine learning estimations from the two types of training data sets. Machine learning from time-series data could provide the equilibrium populations of conformational states as well as their transition probabilities. It estimates hidden conformational states in more robust ways compared to that from ensemble-averaged data although there are limitations in estimating the transition probabilities between minor states. We discuss how to use the machine learning scheme for various experimental measurements including single-molecule time-series trajectories.

Mathematical neuroscience: from neurons to circuits to systems.

PubMed

Gutkin, Boris; Pinto, David; Ermentrout, Bard

2003-01-01

Applications of mathematics and computational techniques to our understanding of neuronal systems are provided. Reduction of membrane models to simplified canonical models demonstrates how neuronal spike-time statistics follow from simple properties of neurons. Averaging over space allows one to derive a simple model for the whisker barrel circuit and use this to explain and suggest several experiments. Spatio-temporal pattern formation methods are applied to explain the patterns seen in the early stages of drug-induced visual hallucinations.

Squids in the Study of Cerebral Magnetic Field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Romani, G. L.; Narici, L.

The following sections are included: * INTRODUCTION * HISTORICAL OVERVIEW * NEUROMAGNETIC FIELDS AND AMBIENT NOISE * DETECTORS * Room temperature sensors * SQUIDs * DETECTION COILS * Magnetometers * Gradiometers * Balancing * Planar gradiometers * Choice of the gradiometer parameters * MODELING * Current pattern due to neural excitations * Action potentials and postsynaptic currents * The current dipole model * Neural population and detected fields * Spherically bounded medium * SPATIAL CONFIGURATION OF THE SENSORS * SOURCE LOCALIZATION * Localization procedure * Experimental accuracy and reproducibility * SIGNAL PROCESSING * Analog Filtering * Bandpass filters * Line rejection filters * DATA ANALYSIS * Analysis of evoked/event-related responses * Simple average * Selected average * Recursive techniques * Similarity analysis * Analysis of spontaneous activity * Mapping and localization * EXAMPLES OF NEUROMAGNETIC STUDIES * Neuromagnetic measurements * Studies on the normal brain * Clinical applications * Epilepsy * Tinnitus * CONCLUSIONS * ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS * REFERENCES

Research on ionospheric tomography based on variable pixel height

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Dunyong; Li, Peiqing; He, Jie; Hu, Wusheng; Li, Chaokui

2016-05-01

A novel ionospheric tomography technique based on variable pixel height was developed for the tomographic reconstruction of the ionospheric electron density distribution. The method considers the height of each pixel as an unknown variable, which is retrieved during the inversion process together with the electron density values. In contrast to conventional computerized ionospheric tomography (CIT), which parameterizes the model with a fixed pixel height, the variable-pixel-height computerized ionospheric tomography (VHCIT) model applies a disturbance to the height of each pixel. In comparison with conventional CIT models, the VHCIT technique achieved superior results in a numerical simulation. A careful validation of the reliability and superiority of VHCIT was performed. According to the results of the statistical analysis of the average root mean square errors, the proposed model offers an improvement by 15% compared with conventional CIT models.

Analysing the accuracy of machine learning techniques to develop an integrated influent time series model: case study of a sewage treatment plant, Malaysia.

PubMed

Ansari, Mozafar; Othman, Faridah; Abunama, Taher; El-Shafie, Ahmed

2018-04-01

The function of a sewage treatment plant is to treat the sewage to acceptable standards before being discharged into the receiving waters. To design and operate such plants, it is necessary to measure and predict the influent flow rate. In this research, the influent flow rate of a sewage treatment plant (STP) was modelled and predicted by autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), nonlinear autoregressive network (NAR) and support vector machine (SVM) regression time series algorithms. To evaluate the models' accuracy, the root mean square error (RMSE) and coefficient of determination (R 2 ) were calculated as initial assessment measures, while relative error (RE), peak flow criterion (PFC) and low flow criterion (LFC) were calculated as final evaluation measures to demonstrate the detailed accuracy of the selected models. An integrated model was developed based on the individual models' prediction ability for low, average and peak flow. An initial assessment of the results showed that the ARIMA model was the least accurate and the NAR model was the most accurate. The RE results also prove that the SVM model's frequency of errors above 10% or below - 10% was greater than the NAR model's. The influent was also forecasted up to 44 weeks ahead by both models. The graphical results indicate that the NAR model made better predictions than the SVM model. The final evaluation of NAR and SVM demonstrated that SVM made better predictions at peak flow and NAR fit well for low and average inflow ranges. The integrated model developed includes the NAR model for low and average influent and the SVM model for peak inflow.

Setting analyst: A practical harvest planning technique

Treesearch

Olivier R.M. Halleux; W. Dale Greene

2001-01-01

Setting Analyst is an ArcView extension that facilitates practical harvest planning for ground-based systems. By modeling the travel patterns of ground-based machines, it compares different harvesting settings based on projected average skidding distance, logging costs, and site disturbance levels. Setting Analyst uses information commonly available to consulting...

Surgical Anatomy and Microvascular Surgical Technique Relevant to Experimental Renal Transplant in Rat Employing Aortic and Inferior Venacaval Conduits.

PubMed

Shrestha, Badri Man; Haylor, John

2017-11-15

Rat models of renal transplant are used to investigate immunologic processes and responses to therapeutic agents before their translation into routine clinical practice. In this study, we have described details of rat surgical anatomy and our experiences with the microvascular surgical technique relevant to renal transplant by employing donor inferior vena cava and aortic conduits. For this study, 175 rats (151 Lewis and 24 Fisher) were used to establish the Fisher-Lewis rat model of chronic allograft injury at our institution. Anatomic and technical details were recorded during the period of training and establishment of the model. A final group of 12 transplanted rats were studied for an average duration of 51 weeks for the Lewis-to-Lewis isografts (5 rats) and 42 weeks for the Fisher-to-Lewis allografts (7 rats). Functional measurements and histology confirmed the diagnosis of chronic allograft injury. Mastering the anatomic details and microvascular surgical techniques can lead to the successful establishment of an experimental renal transplant model.

Inter-comparison of time series models of lake levels predicted by several modeling strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khatibi, R.; Ghorbani, M. A.; Naghipour, L.; Jothiprakash, V.; Fathima, T. A.; Fazelifard, M. H.

2014-04-01

Five modeling strategies are employed to analyze water level time series of six lakes with different physical characteristics such as shape, size, altitude and range of variations. The models comprise chaos theory, Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) - treated for seasonality and hence SARIMA, Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), Gene Expression Programming (GEP) and Multiple Linear Regression (MLR). Each is formulated on a different premise with different underlying assumptions. Chaos theory is elaborated in a greater detail as it is customary to identify the existence of chaotic signals by a number of techniques (e.g. average mutual information and false nearest neighbors) and future values are predicted using the Nonlinear Local Prediction (NLP) technique. This paper takes a critical view of past inter-comparison studies seeking a superior performance, against which it is reported that (i) the performances of all five modeling strategies vary from good to poor, hampering the recommendation of a clear-cut predictive model; (ii) the performances of the datasets of two cases are consistently better with all five modeling strategies; (iii) in other cases, their performances are poor but the results can still be fit-for-purpose; (iv) the simultaneous good performances of NLP and SARIMA pull their underlying assumptions to different ends, which cannot be reconciled. A number of arguments are presented including the culture of pluralism, according to which the various modeling strategies facilitate an insight into the data from different vantages.

Calculating High Speed Centrifugal Compressor Performance from Averaged Measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lou, Fangyuan; Fleming, Ryan; Key, Nicole L.

2012-12-01

To improve the understanding of high performance centrifugal compressors found in modern aircraft engines, the aerodynamics through these machines must be experimentally studied. To accurately capture the complex flow phenomena through these devices, research facilities that can accurately simulate these flows are necessary. One such facility has been recently developed, and it is used in this paper to explore the effects of averaging total pressure and total temperature measurements to calculate compressor performance. Different averaging techniques (including area averaging, mass averaging, and work averaging) have been applied to the data. Results show that there is a negligible difference in both the calculated total pressure ratio and efficiency for the different techniques employed. However, the uncertainty in the performance parameters calculated with the different averaging techniques is significantly different, with area averaging providing the least uncertainty.

Bearing tester data compilation analysis, and reporting and bearing math modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cody, J. C.

1986-01-01

Integration of heat transfer coefficients, modified to account for local vapor quality, into the 45 mm bearing model has been completed. The model has been evaluated with two flow rates and subcooled and saturated coolant. The evaluation showed that by increasing the flow from 3.6 to 7.0 lbs/sec the average ball temperature was decreased by 102 F, using a coolant temperature of -230 F. The average ball temperature was decreased by 63 F by decreasing the inlet coolant temperature from saturated to -230 F at a flow rate of 7.0 lbs/sec. Since other factors such as friction, cage heating, etc., affect bearing temperatures, the above bearing temperature effects should be considered as trends and not absolute values. The two phase heat transfer modification has been installed in the 57 mm bearing model and the effects on bearing temperatures have been evaluated. The average ball temperature was decreased by 60 F by increasing the flow rate from 4.6 to 9.0 lbs/sec for the subcooled case. By decreasing the inlet coolant temperature from saturation to -24 F, the average ball temperature was decreased 57 F for a flow rate of 9.0 lbs/sec. The technique of relating the two phase heat transfer coefficient to local vapor quality will be applied to the tester model and compared with test data.

A comment on Baker et al. 'The time dependence of an atom-vacancy encounter due to the vacancy mechanism of diffusion'

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dasenbrock-Gammon, Nathan; Zacate, Matthew O.

2017-05-01

Baker et al. derived time-dependent expressions for calculating average number of jumps per encounter and displacement probabilities for vacancy diffusion in crystal lattice systems with infinitesimal vacancy concentrations. As shown in this work, their formulation is readily expanded to include finite vacancy concentration, which allows calculation of concentration-dependent, time-averaged quantities. This is useful because it provides a computationally efficient method to express lineshapes of nuclear spectroscopic techniques through the use of stochastic fluctuation models.

Dynamic time warping-based averaging framework for functional near-infrared spectroscopy brain imaging studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Li; Najafizadeh, Laleh

2017-06-01

We investigate the problem related to the averaging procedure in functional near-infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS) brain imaging studies. Typically, to reduce noise and to empower the signal strength associated with task-induced activities, recorded signals (e.g., in response to repeated stimuli or from a group of individuals) are averaged through a point-by-point conventional averaging technique. However, due to the existence of variable latencies in recorded activities, the use of the conventional averaging technique can lead to inaccuracies and loss of information in the averaged signal, which may result in inaccurate conclusions about the functionality of the brain. To improve the averaging accuracy in the presence of variable latencies, we present an averaging framework that employs dynamic time warping (DTW) to account for the temporal variation in the alignment of fNIRS signals to be averaged. As a proof of concept, we focus on the problem of localizing task-induced active brain regions. The framework is extensively tested on experimental data (obtained from both block design and event-related design experiments) as well as on simulated data. In all cases, it is shown that the DTW-based averaging technique outperforms the conventional-based averaging technique in estimating the location of task-induced active regions in the brain, suggesting that such advanced averaging methods should be employed in fNIRS brain imaging studies.

Model-checking techniques based on cumulative residuals.

PubMed

Lin, D Y; Wei, L J; Ying, Z

2002-03-01

Residuals have long been used for graphical and numerical examinations of the adequacy of regression models. Conventional residual analysis based on the plots of raw residuals or their smoothed curves is highly subjective, whereas most numerical goodness-of-fit tests provide little information about the nature of model misspecification. In this paper, we develop objective and informative model-checking techniques by taking the cumulative sums of residuals over certain coordinates (e.g., covariates or fitted values) or by considering some related aggregates of residuals, such as moving sums and moving averages. For a variety of statistical models and data structures, including generalized linear models with independent or dependent observations, the distributions of these stochastic processes tinder the assumed model can be approximated by the distributions of certain zero-mean Gaussian processes whose realizations can be easily generated by computer simulation. Each observed process can then be compared, both graphically and numerically, with a number of realizations from the Gaussian process. Such comparisons enable one to assess objectively whether a trend seen in a residual plot reflects model misspecification or natural variation. The proposed techniques are particularly useful in checking the functional form of a covariate and the link function. Illustrations with several medical studies are provided.

Proceedings of the Conference on the Design of Experiments in Army Research Development and Testing (32nd)

DTIC Science & Technology

1987-06-01

number of series among the 63 which were identified as a particular ARIMA form and were "best" modeled by a particular technique. Figure 1 illustrates a...th time from xe’s. The integrbted autoregressive - moving average model , denoted by ARIMA (p,d,q) is a result of combining d-th differencing process...Experiments, (4) Data Analysis and Modeling , (5) Theory and Probablistic Inference, (6) Fuzzy Statistics, (7) Forecasting and Prediction, (8) Small Sample

Aortic Root Biomechanics After Sleeve and David Sparing Techniques: A Finite Element Analysis.

PubMed

Tasca, Giordano; Selmi, Matteo; Votta, Emiliano; Redaelli, Paola; Sturla, Francesco; Redaelli, Alberto; Gamba, Amando

2017-05-01

Aortic root aneurysm can be treated with valve-sparing procedures. The David and Yacoub techniques have shown excellent long-term results but are technically demanding. Recently, a new and simpler procedure, the Sleeve technique, was proposed with encouraging results. We aimed to quantify the biomechanics of the initially aneurysmal aortic root (AR) after the Sleeve procedure to assess whether it induces abnormal stresses, potentially undermining its durability. Two finite element (FE) models of the physiologic and aneurysmal AR were built, accounting for the anatomical asymmetry and the nonlinear and anisotropic mechanical properties of human AR tissues. On the aneurysmal model, the Sleeve and David techniques were simulated based on the corresponding published technical features. Aortic root biomechanics throughout 2 consecutive cardiac cycles were computed in each simulated configuration. Both sparing techniques restored physiologic-like kinematics of aortic valve (AV) leaflets but induced different leaflets stresses. The time course averaged over the leaflets' bellies was 35% higher in the David model than in the Sleeve model. Commissural stresses, which were equal to 153 and 318 kPa in the physiologic and aneurysmal models, respectively, became 369 and 208 kPa in the David and Sleeve models, respectively. No intrinsic structural problems were detected in the Sleeve model that might jeopardize the durability of the procedure. If corroborated by long-term clinical outcomes, the results obtained suggest that using this new technique could successfully simplify the surgical repair of AR aneurysms and reduce intraoperative complications. Copyright © 2017 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Computational studies of transthoracic and transvenous defibrillation in a detailed 3-D human thorax model.

PubMed

Jorgenson, D B; Haynor, D R; Bardy, G H; Kim, Y

1995-02-01

A method for constructing and solving detailed patient-specific 3-D finite element models of the human thorax is presented for use in defibrillation studies. The method utilizes the patient's own X-ray CT scan and a simplified meshing scheme to quickly and efficiently generate a model typically composed of approximately 400,000 elements. A parameter sensitivity study on one human thorax model to examine the effects of variation in assigned tissue resistivity values, level of anatomical detail included in the model, and number of CT slices used to produce the model is presented. Of the seven tissue types examined, the average left ventricular (LV) myocardial voltage gradient was most sensitive to the values of myocardial and blood resistivity. Incorrectly simplifying the model, for example modeling the heart as a homogeneous structure by ignoring the blood in the chambers, caused the average LV myocardial voltage gradient to increase by 12%. The sensitivity of the model to variations in electrode size and position was also examined. Small changes (< 2.0 cm) in electrode position caused average LV myocardial voltage gradient values to increase by up to 12%. We conclude that patient-specific 3-D finite element modeling of human thoracic electric fields is feasible and may reduce the empiric approach to insertion of implantable defibrillators and improve transthoracic defibrillation techniques.

Two-Stage Bayesian Model Averaging in Endogenous Variable Models*

PubMed Central

Lenkoski, Alex; Eicher, Theo S.; Raftery, Adrian E.

2013-01-01

Economic modeling in the presence of endogeneity is subject to model uncertainty at both the instrument and covariate level. We propose a Two-Stage Bayesian Model Averaging (2SBMA) methodology that extends the Two-Stage Least Squares (2SLS) estimator. By constructing a Two-Stage Unit Information Prior in the endogenous variable model, we are able to efficiently combine established methods for addressing model uncertainty in regression models with the classic technique of 2SLS. To assess the validity of instruments in the 2SBMA context, we develop Bayesian tests of the identification restriction that are based on model averaged posterior predictive p-values. A simulation study showed that 2SBMA has the ability to recover structure in both the instrument and covariate set, and substantially improves the sharpness of resulting coefficient estimates in comparison to 2SLS using the full specification in an automatic fashion. Due to the increased parsimony of the 2SBMA estimate, the Bayesian Sargan test had a power of 50 percent in detecting a violation of the exogeneity assumption, while the method based on 2SLS using the full specification had negligible power. We apply our approach to the problem of development accounting, and find support not only for institutions, but also for geography and integration as development determinants, once both model uncertainty and endogeneity have been jointly addressed. PMID:24223471

Fuzzy logic application for modeling man-in-the-loop space shuttle proximity operations. M.S. Thesis - MIT

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brown, Robert B.

1994-01-01

A software pilot model for Space Shuttle proximity operations is developed, utilizing fuzzy logic. The model is designed to emulate a human pilot during the terminal phase of a Space Shuttle approach to the Space Station. The model uses the same sensory information available to a human pilot and is based upon existing piloting rules and techniques determined from analysis of human pilot performance. Such a model is needed to generate numerous rendezvous simulations to various Space Station assembly stages for analysis of current NASA procedures and plume impingement loads on the Space Station. The advantages of a fuzzy logic pilot model are demonstrated by comparing its performance with NASA's man-in-the-loop simulations and with a similar model based upon traditional Boolean logic. The fuzzy model is shown to respond well from a number of initial conditions, with results typical of an average human. In addition, the ability to model different individual piloting techniques and new piloting rules is demonstrated.

A geometrical optics approach for modeling aperture averaging in free space optical communication applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuksel, Heba; Davis, Christopher C.

2006-09-01

Intensity fluctuations at the receiver in free space optical (FSO) communication links lead to a received power variance that depends on the size of the receiver aperture. Increasing the size of the receiver aperture reduces the power variance. This effect of the receiver size on power variance is called aperture averaging. If there were no aperture size limitation at the receiver, then there would be no turbulence-induced scintillation. In practice, there is always a tradeoff between aperture size, transceiver weight, and potential transceiver agility for pointing, acquisition and tracking (PAT) of FSO communication links. We have developed a geometrical simulation model to predict the aperture averaging factor. This model is used to simulate the aperture averaging effect at given range by using a large number of rays, Gaussian as well as uniformly distributed, propagating through simulated turbulence into a circular receiver of varying aperture size. Turbulence is simulated by filling the propagation path with spherical bubbles of varying sizes and refractive index discontinuities statistically distributed according to various models. For each statistical representation of the atmosphere, the three-dimensional trajectory of each ray is analyzed using geometrical optics. These Monte Carlo techniques have proved capable of assessing the aperture averaging effect, in particular, the quantitative expected reduction in intensity fluctuations with increasing aperture diameter. In addition, beam wander results have demonstrated the range-cubed dependence of mean-squared beam wander. An effective turbulence parameter can also be determined by correlating beam wander behavior with the path length.

Modeling of turbulent separated flows for aerodynamic applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marvin, J. G.

1983-01-01

Steady, high speed, compressible separated flows modeled through numerical simulations resulting from solutions of the mass-averaged Navier-Stokes equations are reviewed. Emphasis is placed on benchmark flows that represent simplified (but realistic) aerodynamic phenomena. These include impinging shock waves, compression corners, glancing shock waves, trailing edge regions, and supersonic high angle of attack flows. A critical assessment of modeling capabilities is provided by comparing the numerical simulations with experiment. The importance of combining experiment, numerical algorithm, grid, and turbulence model to effectively develop this potentially powerful simulation technique is stressed.

Apps to promote physical activity among adults: a review and content analysis.

PubMed

Middelweerd, Anouk; Mollee, Julia S; van der Wal, C Natalie; Brug, Johannes; Te Velde, Saskia J

2014-07-25

In May 2013, the iTunes and Google Play stores contained 23,490 and 17,756 smartphone applications (apps) categorized as Health and Fitness, respectively. The quality of these apps, in terms of applying established health behavior change techniques, remains unclear. The study sample was identified through systematic searches in iTunes and Google Play. Search terms were based on Boolean logic and included AND combinations for physical activity, healthy lifestyle, exercise, fitness, coach, assistant, motivation, and support. Sixty-four apps were downloaded, reviewed, and rated based on the taxonomy of behavior change techniques used in the interventions. Mean and ranges were calculated for the number of observed behavior change techniques. Using nonparametric tests, we compared the number of techniques observed in free and paid apps and in iTunes and Google Play. On average, the reviewed apps included 5 behavior change techniques (range 2-8). Techniques such as self-monitoring, providing feedback on performance, and goal-setting were used most frequently, whereas some techniques such as motivational interviewing, stress management, relapse prevention, self-talk, role models, and prompted barrier identification were not. No differences in the number of behavior change techniques between free and paid apps, or between the app stores were found. The present study demonstrated that apps promoting physical activity applied an average of 5 out of 23 possible behavior change techniques. This number was not different for paid and free apps or between app stores. The most frequently used behavior change techniques in apps were similar to those most frequently used in other types of physical activity promotion interventions.

Comparison of two tension-band fixation materials and techniques in transverse patella fractures: a biomechanical study.

PubMed

Rabalais, R David; Burger, Evalina; Lu, Yun; Mansour, Alfred; Baratta, Richard V

2008-02-01

This study compared the biomechanical properties of 2 tension-band techniques with stainless steel wire and ultra high molecular weight polyethylene (UHMWPE) cable in a patella fracture model. Transverse patella fractures were simulated in 8 cadaver knees and fixated with figure-of-8 and parallel wire configurations in combination with Kirschner wires. Identical configurations were tested with UHMWPE cable. Specimens were mounted to a testing apparatus and the quadriceps was used to extend the knees from 90 degrees to 0 degrees; 4 knees were tested under monotonic loading, and 4 knees were tested under cyclic loading. Under monotonic loading, average fracture gap was 0.50 and 0.57 mm for steel wire and UHMWPE cable, respectively, in the figure-of-8 construct compared with 0.16 and 0.04 mm, respectively, in the parallel wire construct. Under cyclic loading, average fracture gap was 1.45 and 1.66 mm for steel wire and UHMWPE cable, respectively, in the figure-of-8 construct compared with 0.45 and 0.60 mm, respectively, in the parallel wire construct. A statistically significant effect of technique was found, with the parallel wire construct performing better than the figure-of-8 construct in both loading models. There was no effect of material or interaction. In this biomechanical model, parallel wires performed better than the figure-of-8 configuration in both loading regimens, and UHMWPE cable performed similarly to 18-gauge steel wire.

Loading Rate Effects on the One-Dimensional Compressibility of Four Partially Saturated Soils

DTIC Science & Technology

1986-12-01

representations are referred to as constitutive models. Numerous constitutive models incorporating loading rate effects have been developed ( Baladi and Rohani...and probably more indicative of the true values of applied pressure and average strain produced during the test. A technique developed by Baladi and...Sand," Technical Report No. AFWL-TR-66-146, Air Force Weapons Laboratory, Kirtland Air Force Base, New Mexico, June, 1967. 4. Baladi , George Y., and

A new technique for measuring aerosols with moonlight observations and a sky background model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, Amy; Noll, Stefan; Kausch, Wolfgang; Kimeswenger, Stefan; Szyszka, Ceszary; Unterguggenberger, Stefanie

2014-05-01

There have been an ample number of studies on aerosols in urban, daylight conditions, but few for remote, nocturnal aerosols. We have developed a new technique for investigating such aerosols using our sky background model and astronomical observations. With a dedicated observing proposal we have successfully tested this technique for nocturnal, remote aerosol studies. This technique relies on three requirements: (a) sky background model, (b) observations taken with scattered moonlight, and (c) spectrophotometric standard star observations for flux calibrations. The sky background model was developed for the European Southern Observatory and is optimized for the Very Large Telescope at Cerro Paranal in the Atacama desert in Chile. This is a remote location with almost no urban aerosols. It is well suited for studying remote background aerosols that are normally difficult to detect. Our sky background model has an uncertainty of around 20 percent and the scattered moonlight portion is even more accurate. The last two requirements are having astronomical observations with moonlight and of standard stars at different airmasses, all during the same night. We had a dedicated observing proposal at Cerro Paranal with the instrument X-Shooter to use as a case study for this method. X-Shooter is a medium resolution, echelle spectrograph which covers the wavelengths from 0.3 to 2.5 micrometers. We observed plain sky at six different distances (7, 13, 20, 45, 90, and 110 degrees) to the Moon for three different Moon phases (between full and half). Also direct observations of spectrophotometric standard stars were taken at two different airmasses for each night to measure the extinction curve via the Langley method. This is an ideal data set for testing this technique. The underlying assumption is that all components, other than the atmospheric conditions (specifically aerosols and airglow), can be calculated with the model for the given observing parameters. The scattered moonlight model is designed for the average atmospheric conditions at Cerro Paranal. The Mie scattering is calculated for the average distribution of aerosol particles, but this input can be modified. We can avoid the airglow emission lines, and near full Moon the airglow continuum can be ignored. In the case study, by comparing the scattered moonlight for the various angles and wavelengths along with the extinction curve from the standard stars, we can iteratively find the optimal aerosol size distribution for the time of observation. We will present this new technique, the results from this case study, and how it can be implemented for investigating aerosols using the X-Shooter archive and other astronomical archives.

Mirrored continuum and molecular scale simulations of the ignition of high-pressure phases of RDX

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lee, Kibaek; Stewart, D. Scott, E-mail: santc@illinois.edu, E-mail: dss@illinois.edu; Joshi, Kaushik

2016-05-14

We present a mirrored atomistic and continuum framework that is used to describe the ignition of energetic materials, and a high-pressure phase of RDX in particular. The continuum formulation uses meaningful averages of thermodynamic properties obtained from the atomistic simulation and a simplification of enormously complex reaction kinetics. In particular, components are identified based on molecular weight bin averages and our methodology assumes that both the averaged atomistic and continuum simulations are represented on the same time and length scales. The atomistic simulations of thermally initiated ignition of RDX are performed using reactive molecular dynamics (RMD). The continuum model ismore » based on multi-component thermodynamics and uses a kinetics scheme that describes observed chemical changes of the averaged atomistic simulations. Thus the mirrored continuum simulations mimic the rapid change in pressure, temperature, and average molecular weight of species in the reactive mixture. This mirroring enables a new technique to simplify the chemistry obtained from reactive MD simulations while retaining the observed features and spatial and temporal scales from both the RMD and continuum model. The primary benefit of this approach is a potentially powerful, but familiar way to interpret the atomistic simulations and understand the chemical events and reaction rates. The approach is quite general and thus can provide a way to model chemistry based on atomistic simulations and extend the reach of those simulations.« less

Ground Vibration Test Planning and Pre-Test Analysis for the X-33 Vehicle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bedrossian, Herand; Tinker, Michael L.; Hidalgo, Homero

2000-01-01

This paper describes the results of the modal test planning and the pre-test analysis for the X-33 vehicle. The pre-test analysis included the selection of the target modes, selection of the sensor and shaker locations and the development of an accurate Test Analysis Model (TAM). For target mode selection, four techniques were considered, one based on the Modal Cost technique, one based on Balanced Singular Value technique, a technique known as the Root Sum Squared (RSS) method, and a Modal Kinetic Energy (MKE) approach. For selecting sensor locations, four techniques were also considered; one based on the Weighted Average Kinetic Energy (WAKE), one based on Guyan Reduction (GR), one emphasizing engineering judgment, and one based on an optimum sensor selection technique using Genetic Algorithm (GA) search technique combined with a criteria based on Hankel Singular Values (HSV's). For selecting shaker locations, four techniques were also considered; one based on the Weighted Average Driving Point Residue (WADPR), one based on engineering judgment and accessibility considerations, a frequency response method, and an optimum shaker location selection based on a GA search technique combined with a criteria based on HSV's. To evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed sensor and shaker locations for exciting the target modes, extensive numerical simulations were performed. Multivariate Mode Indicator Function (MMIF) was used to evaluate the effectiveness of each sensor & shaker set with respect to modal parameter identification. Several TAM reduction techniques were considered including, Guyan, IRS, Modal, and Hybrid. Based on a pre-test cross-orthogonality checks using various reduction techniques, a Hybrid TAM reduction technique was selected and was used for all three vehicle fuel level configurations.

Robust Hidden Markov Model based intelligent blood vessel detection of fundus images.

PubMed

Hassan, Mehdi; Amin, Muhammad; Murtza, Iqbal; Khan, Asifullah; Chaudhry, Asmatullah

2017-11-01

In this paper, we consider the challenging problem of detecting retinal vessel networks. Precise detection of retinal vessel networks is vital for accurate eye disease diagnosis. Most of the blood vessel tracking techniques may not properly track vessels in presence of vessels' occlusion. Owing to problem in sensor resolution or acquisition of fundus images, it is possible that some part of vessel may occlude. In this scenario, it becomes a challenging task to accurately trace these vital vessels. For this purpose, we have proposed a new robust and intelligent retinal vessel detection technique on Hidden Markov Model. The proposed model is able to successfully track vessels in the presence of occlusion. The effectiveness of the proposed technique is evaluated on publically available standard DRIVE dataset of the fundus images. The experiments show that the proposed technique not only outperforms the other state of the art methodologies of retinal blood vessels segmentation, but it is also capable of accurate occlusion handling in retinal vessel networks. The proposed technique offers better average classification accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and area under the curve (AUC) of 95.7%, 81.0%, 97.0%, and 90.0% respectively, which shows the usefulness of the proposed technique. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Angle-of-Arrival Fluctuations of Light Propagating through the Intermittent Nocturnal Atmospheric Surface Layer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muschinski, A.; Hu, K.; Root, L. M.; Tichkule, S.; Wijesundara, S. N.

2010-12-01

Mean values and fluctuations of angles-of-arrival (AOAs) of light emitted from astronomical or terrestrial sources and observed through a telescope equipped with a CCD camera carry quantitative information about certain statistics of the wind and temperature field, integrated along the propagation path. While scintillometry (i.e., the retrieval of atmospheric quantities from light intensity fluctuations) has been a popular technique among micrometeorologists for many years, there have been relatively few attempts to utilize AOA observations to probe the atmospheric surface layer (ASL). Here we report results from a field experiment that we conducted at the Boulder Atmospheric Observatory (BAO) site near Erie, CO, in June 2010. During the night of 15/16 June, the ASL was characterized by intermittent turbulence and intermittent gravity-wave events. We measured temperature and wind with 12 sonics (R.M. Young, Model 81000, sampling rate 31 Hz) mounted on two portable towers at altitudes between 1.45 m and 4.84 m AGL; air pressure with two quartz-crystal barometers (Paroscientific, 10 Hz); and AOAs by means of a CCD camera (Lumenera, Model 075M, thirty 640x480 frames per second) attached to a 14-inch, Schmidt-Cassegrain telescope (Meade, Model LX200GPS) pointing at a rectangular array of four test lights (LEDs, vertical spacing 8 cm, horizontal spacing 10 cm) located at a distance of 182 m. The optical path was horizontal and 1.7 m above flat ground. The two towers were located 2 m away from the optical path. In our presentation, we focus on AOA retrievals of the following quantities: temporal fluctuations of the path-averaged, vertical temperature gradient; mean values and fluctuations of the path-averaged, lateral wind velocity; and mean values and fluctuations of the path-averaged temperature turbulence structure parameter. We compare the AOA retrievals with the collocated and simultaneous point measurements obtained with the sonics, and we analyze our observations in the framework of the Monin-Obukhov theory. The AOA techniques enable us to detect temporal fluctuations of the path-averaged vertical temperature gradient (estimated over a height increment defined by the telescope's aperture diameter) down to a few millikelvins per meter, which probably cannot be achieved with sonics. Extremely small wind velocities can also be resolved. Therefore, AOA techniques are well suited for observations of the nocturnal surface layer under quiet conditions. AOA retrieval techniques have major advantages over scintillometric techniques because AOAs can be understood within the framework of the weak-scattering theory or even geometrical optics (the eikonal-fluctuation theory), while the well-known "saturation effect" makes the weak-scattering theory invalid for intensity fluctuations in the majority of cases of practical relevance.

The Gap in Big Data: Getting to Wellbeing, Strengths, and a Whole-person Perspective

PubMed Central

Peters, Judith; Schlesner, Sara; Vanderboom, Catherine E.; Holland, Diane E.

2015-01-01

Background: Electronic health records (EHRs) provide a clinical view of patient health. EHR data are becoming available in large data sets and enabling research that will transform the landscape of healthcare research. Methods are needed to incorporate wellbeing dimensions and strengths in large data sets. The purpose of this study was to examine the potential alignment of the Wellbeing Model with a clinical interface terminology standard, the Omaha System, for documenting wellbeing assessments. Objective: To map the Omaha System and Wellbeing Model for use in a clinical EHR wellbeing assessment and to evaluate the feasibility of describing strengths and needs of seniors generated through this assessment. Methods: The Wellbeing Model and Omaha System were mapped using concept mapping techniques. Based on this mapping, a wellbeing assessment was developed and implemented within a clinical EHR. Strengths indicators and signs/symptoms data for 5 seniors living in a residential community were abstracted from wellbeing assessments and analyzed using standard descriptive statistics and pattern visualization techniques. Results: Initial mapping agreement was 93.5%, with differences resolved by consensus. Wellbeing data analysis showed seniors had an average of 34.8 (range=22-49) strengths indicators for 22.8 concepts. They had an average of 6.4 (range=4-8) signs/symptoms for an average of 3.2 (range=2-5) concepts. The ratio of strengths indicators to signs/symptoms was 6:1 (range 2.8-9.6). Problem concepts with more signs/symptoms had fewer strengths. Conclusion: Together, the Wellbeing Model and the Omaha System have potential to enable a whole-person perspective and enhance the potential for a wellbeing perspective in big data research in healthcare. PMID:25984416

The Gap in Big Data: Getting to Wellbeing, Strengths, and a Whole-person Perspective.

PubMed

Monsen, Karen A; Peters, Judith; Schlesner, Sara; Vanderboom, Catherine E; Holland, Diane E

2015-05-01

Electronic health records (EHRs) provide a clinical view of patient health. EHR data are becoming available in large data sets and enabling research that will transform the landscape of healthcare research. Methods are needed to incorporate wellbeing dimensions and strengths in large data sets. The purpose of this study was to examine the potential alignment of the Wellbeing Model with a clinical interface terminology standard, the Omaha System, for documenting wellbeing assessments. To map the Omaha System and Wellbeing Model for use in a clinical EHR wellbeing assessment and to evaluate the feasibility of describing strengths and needs of seniors generated through this assessment. The Wellbeing Model and Omaha System were mapped using concept mapping techniques. Based on this mapping, a wellbeing assessment was developed and implemented within a clinical EHR. Strengths indicators and signs/symptoms data for 5 seniors living in a residential community were abstracted from wellbeing assessments and analyzed using standard descriptive statistics and pattern visualization techniques. Initial mapping agreement was 93.5%, with differences resolved by consensus. Wellbeing data analysis showed seniors had an average of 34.8 (range=22-49) strengths indicators for 22.8 concepts. They had an average of 6.4 (range=4-8) signs/symptoms for an average of 3.2 (range=2-5) concepts. The ratio of strengths indicators to signs/symptoms was 6:1 (range 2.8-9.6). Problem concepts with more signs/symptoms had fewer strengths. Together, the Wellbeing Model and the Omaha System have potential to enable a whole-person perspective and enhance the potential for a wellbeing perspective in big data research in healthcare.

Ex vivo optimisation of a heterogeneous speed of sound model of the human skull for non-invasive transcranial focused ultrasound at 1 MHz.

PubMed

Marsac, L; Chauvet, D; La Greca, R; Boch, A-L; Chaumoitre, K; Tanter, M; Aubry, J-F

2017-09-01

Transcranial brain therapy has recently emerged as a non-invasive strategy for the treatment of various neurological diseases, such as essential tremor or neurogenic pain. However, treatments require millimetre-scale accuracy. The use of high frequencies (typically ≥1 MHz) decreases the ultrasonic wavelength to the millimetre scale, thereby increasing the clinical accuracy and lowering the probability of cavitation, which improves the safety of the technique compared with the use of low-frequency devices that operate at 220 kHz. Nevertheless, the skull produces greater distortions of high-frequency waves relative to low-frequency waves. High-frequency waves require high-performance adaptive focusing techniques, based on modelling the wave propagation through the skull. This study sought to optimise the acoustical modelling of the skull based on computed tomography (CT) for a 1 MHz clinical brain therapy system. The best model tested in this article corresponded to a maximum speed of sound of 4000 m.s -1 in the skull bone, and it restored 86% of the optimal pressure amplitude on average in a collection of six human skulls. Compared with uncorrected focusing, the optimised non-invasive correction led to an average increase of 99% in the maximum pressure amplitude around the target and an average decrease of 48% in the distance between the peak pressure and the selected target. The attenuation through the skulls was also assessed within the bandwidth of the transducers, and it was found to vary in the range of 10 ± 3 dB at 800 kHz and 16 ± 3 dB at 1.3 MHz.

Anatomical reconstructions of pediatric airways from endoscopic images: a pilot study of the accuracy of quantitative endoscopy.

PubMed

Meisner, Eric M; Hager, Gregory D; Ishman, Stacey L; Brown, David; Tunkel, David E; Ishii, Masaru

2013-11-01

To evaluate the accuracy of three-dimensional (3D) airway reconstructions obtained using quantitative endoscopy (QE). We developed this novel technique to reconstruct precise 3D representations of airway geometries from endoscopic video streams. This method, based on machine vision methodologies, uses a post-processing step of the standard videos obtained during routine laryngoscopy and bronchoscopy. We hypothesize that this method is precise and will generate assessment of airway size and shape similar to those obtained using computed tomography (CT). This study was approved by the institutional review board (IRB). We analyzed video sequences from pediatric patients receiving rigid bronchoscopy. We generated 3D scaled airway models of the subglottis, trachea, and carina using QE. These models were compared to 3D airway models generated from CT. We used the CT data as the gold standard measure of airway size, and used a mixed linear model to estimate the average error in cross-sectional area and effective diameter for QE. The average error in cross sectional area (area sliced perpendicular to the long axis of the airway) was 7.7 mm(2) (variance 33.447 mm(4)). The average error in effective diameter was 0.38775 mm (variance 2.45 mm(2)), approximately 9% error. Our pilot study suggests that QE can be used to generate precise 3D reconstructions of airways. This technique is atraumatic, does not require ionizing radiation, and integrates easily into standard airway assessment protocols. We conjecture that this technology will be useful for staging airway disease and assessing surgical outcomes. Copyright © 2013 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.

Detecting the optic disc boundary in digital fundus images using morphological, edge detection, and feature extraction techniques.

PubMed

Aquino, Arturo; Gegundez-Arias, Manuel Emilio; Marin, Diego

2010-11-01

Optic disc (OD) detection is an important step in developing systems for automated diagnosis of various serious ophthalmic pathologies. This paper presents a new template-based methodology for segmenting the OD from digital retinal images. This methodology uses morphological and edge detection techniques followed by the Circular Hough Transform to obtain a circular OD boundary approximation. It requires a pixel located within the OD as initial information. For this purpose, a location methodology based on a voting-type algorithm is also proposed. The algorithms were evaluated on the 1200 images of the publicly available MESSIDOR database. The location procedure succeeded in 99% of cases, taking an average computational time of 1.67 s. with a standard deviation of 0.14 s. On the other hand, the segmentation algorithm rendered an average common area overlapping between automated segmentations and true OD regions of 86%. The average computational time was 5.69 s with a standard deviation of 0.54 s. Moreover, a discussion on advantages and disadvantages of the models more generally used for OD segmentation is also presented in this paper.

Models of brachial to finger pulse wave distortion and pressure decrement.

PubMed

Gizdulich, P; Prentza, A; Wesseling, K H

1997-03-01

To model the pulse wave distortion and pressure decrement occurring between brachial and finger arteries. Distortion reversion and decrement correction were also our aims. Brachial artery pressure was recorded intra-arterially and finger pressure was recorded non-invasively by the Finapres technique in 53 adult human subjects. Mean pressure was subtracted from each pressure waveform and Fourier analysis applied to the pulsations. A distortion model was estimated for each subject and averaged over the group. The average inverse model was applied to the full finger pressure waveform. The pressure decrement was modelled by multiple regression on finger systolic and diastolic levels. Waveform distortion could be described by a general, frequency dependent model having a resonance at 7.3 Hz. The general inverse model has an anti-resonance at this frequency. It converts finger to brachial pulsations thereby reducing average waveform distortion from 9.7 (s.d. 3.2) mmHg per sample for the finger pulse to 3.7 (1.7) mmHg for the converted pulse. Systolic and diastolic level differences between finger and brachial arterial pressures changed from -4 (15) and -8 (11) to +8 (14) and +8 (12) mmHg, respectively, after inverse modelling, with pulse pressures correct on average. The pressure decrement model reduced both the mean and the standard deviation of systolic and diastolic level differences to 0 (13) and 0 (8) mmHg. Diastolic differences were thus reduced most. Brachial to finger pulse wave distortion due to wave reflection in arteries is almost identical in all subjects and can be modelled by a single resonance. The pressure decrement due to flow in arteries is greatest for high pulse pressures superimposed on low means.

Turbine Engine Flowpath Averaging Techniques

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-10-01

u~%x AEDC- TMR- 8 I-G 1 • R. P TURBINE ENGINE FLOWPATH AVERAGING TECHNIQUES T. W. Skiles ARO, Inc. October 1980 Final Report for Period...COVERED 00-01-1980 to 00-10-1980 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Turbine Engine Flowpath Averaging Techniques 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c...property for gas turbine engines were investigated. The investigation consisted of a literature review and review of turbine engine current flowpath

A model-averaging method for assessing groundwater conceptual model uncertainty.

PubMed

Ye, Ming; Pohlmann, Karl F; Chapman, Jenny B; Pohll, Greg M; Reeves, Donald M

2010-01-01

This study evaluates alternative groundwater models with different recharge and geologic components at the northern Yucca Flat area of the Death Valley Regional Flow System (DVRFS), USA. Recharge over the DVRFS has been estimated using five methods, and five geological interpretations are available at the northern Yucca Flat area. Combining the recharge and geological components together with additional modeling components that represent other hydrogeological conditions yields a total of 25 groundwater flow models. As all the models are plausible given available data and information, evaluating model uncertainty becomes inevitable. On the other hand, hydraulic parameters (e.g., hydraulic conductivity) are uncertain in each model, giving rise to parametric uncertainty. Propagation of the uncertainty in the models and model parameters through groundwater modeling causes predictive uncertainty in model predictions (e.g., hydraulic head and flow). Parametric uncertainty within each model is assessed using Monte Carlo simulation, and model uncertainty is evaluated using the model averaging method. Two model-averaging techniques (on the basis of information criteria and GLUE) are discussed. This study shows that contribution of model uncertainty to predictive uncertainty is significantly larger than that of parametric uncertainty. For the recharge and geological components, uncertainty in the geological interpretations has more significant effect on model predictions than uncertainty in the recharge estimates. In addition, weighted residuals vary more for the different geological models than for different recharge models. Most of the calibrated observations are not important for discriminating between the alternative models, because their weighted residuals vary only slightly from one model to another.

Reliability ensemble averaging of 21st century projections of terrestrial net primary productivity reduces global and regional uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Exbrayat, Jean-François; Bloom, A. Anthony; Falloon, Pete; Ito, Akihiko; Smallman, T. Luke; Williams, Mathew

2018-02-01

Multi-model averaging techniques provide opportunities to extract additional information from large ensembles of simulations. In particular, present-day model skill can be used to evaluate their potential performance in future climate simulations. Multi-model averaging methods have been used extensively in climate and hydrological sciences, but they have not been used to constrain projected plant productivity responses to climate change, which is a major uncertainty in Earth system modelling. Here, we use three global observationally orientated estimates of current net primary productivity (NPP) to perform a reliability ensemble averaging (REA) method using 30 global simulations of the 21st century change in NPP based on the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) business as usual emissions scenario. We find that the three REA methods support an increase in global NPP by the end of the 21st century (2095-2099) compared to 2001-2005, which is 2-3 % stronger than the ensemble ISIMIP mean value of 24.2 Pg C y-1. Using REA also leads to a 45-68 % reduction in the global uncertainty of 21st century NPP projection, which strengthens confidence in the resilience of the CO2 fertilization effect to climate change. This reduction in uncertainty is especially clear for boreal ecosystems although it may be an artefact due to the lack of representation of nutrient limitations on NPP in most models. Conversely, the large uncertainty that remains on the sign of the response of NPP in semi-arid regions points to the need for better observations and model development in these regions.

Tracking Electroencephalographic Changes Using Distributions of Linear Models: Application to Propofol-Based Depth of Anesthesia Monitoring.

PubMed

Kuhlmann, Levin; Manton, Jonathan H; Heyse, Bjorn; Vereecke, Hugo E M; Lipping, Tarmo; Struys, Michel M R F; Liley, David T J

2017-04-01

Tracking brain states with electrophysiological measurements often relies on short-term averages of extracted features and this may not adequately capture the variability of brain dynamics. The objective is to assess the hypotheses that this can be overcome by tracking distributions of linear models using anesthesia data, and that anesthetic brain state tracking performance of linear models is comparable to that of a high performing depth of anesthesia monitoring feature. Individuals' brain states are classified by comparing the distribution of linear (auto-regressive moving average-ARMA) model parameters estimated from electroencephalographic (EEG) data obtained with a sliding window to distributions of linear model parameters for each brain state. The method is applied to frontal EEG data from 15 subjects undergoing propofol anesthesia and classified by the observers assessment of alertness/sedation (OAA/S) scale. Classification of the OAA/S score was performed using distributions of either ARMA parameters or the benchmark feature, Higuchi fractal dimension. The highest average testing sensitivity of 59% (chance sensitivity: 17%) was found for ARMA (2,1) models and Higuchi fractal dimension achieved 52%, however, no statistical difference was observed. For the same ARMA case, there was no statistical difference if medians are used instead of distributions (sensitivity: 56%). The model-based distribution approach is not necessarily more effective than a median/short-term average approach, however, it performs well compared with a distribution approach based on a high performing anesthesia monitoring measure. These techniques hold potential for anesthesia monitoring and may be generally applicable for tracking brain states.

Modal identification of structures by a novel approach based on FDD-wavelet method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tarinejad, Reza; Damadipour, Majid

2014-02-01

An important application of system identification in structural dynamics is the determination of natural frequencies, mode shapes and damping ratios during operation which can then be used for calibrating numerical models. In this paper, the combination of two advanced methods of Operational Modal Analysis (OMA) called Frequency Domain Decomposition (FDD) and Continuous Wavelet Transform (CWT) based on novel cyclic averaging of correlation functions (CACF) technique are used for identification of dynamic properties. By using this technique, the autocorrelation of averaged correlation functions is used instead of original signals. Integration of FDD and CWT methods is used to overcome their deficiency and take advantage of the unique capabilities of these methods. The FDD method is able to accurately estimate the natural frequencies and mode shapes of structures in the frequency domain. On the other hand, the CWT method is in the time-frequency domain for decomposition of a signal at different frequencies and determines the damping coefficients. In this paper, a new formulation applied to the wavelet transform of the averaged correlation function of an ambient response is proposed. This application causes to accurate estimation of damping ratios from weak (noise) or strong (earthquake) vibrations and long or short duration record. For this purpose, the modified Morlet wavelet having two free parameters is used. The optimum values of these two parameters are obtained by employing a technique which minimizes the entropy of the wavelet coefficients matrix. The capabilities of the novel FDD-Wavelet method in the system identification of various dynamic systems with regular or irregular distribution of mass and stiffness are illustrated. This combined approach is superior to classic methods and yields results that agree well with the exact solutions of the numerical models.

A novel application of artificial neural network for wind speed estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fang, Da; Wang, Jianzhou

2017-05-01

Providing accurate multi-steps wind speed estimation models has increasing significance, because of the important technical and economic impacts of wind speed on power grid security and environment benefits. In this study, the combined strategies for wind speed forecasting are proposed based on an intelligent data processing system using artificial neural network (ANN). Generalized regression neural network and Elman neural network are employed to form two hybrid models. The approach employs one of ANN to model the samples achieving data denoising and assimilation and apply the other to predict wind speed using the pre-processed samples. The proposed method is demonstrated in terms of the predicting improvements of the hybrid models compared with single ANN and the typical forecasting method. To give sufficient cases for the study, four observation sites with monthly average wind speed of four given years in Western China were used to test the models. Multiple evaluation methods demonstrated that the proposed method provides a promising alternative technique in monthly average wind speed estimation.

Prediction of human gait trajectories during the SSP using a neuromusculoskeletal modeling: A challenge for parametric optimization.

PubMed

Seyed, Mohammadali Rahmati; Mostafa, Rostami; Borhan, Beigzadeh

2018-04-27

The parametric optimization techniques have been widely employed to predict human gait trajectories; however, their applications to reveal the other aspects of gait are questionable. The aim of this study is to investigate whether or not the gait prediction model is able to justify the movement trajectories for the higher average velocities. A planar, seven-segment model with sixteen muscle groups was used to represent human neuro-musculoskeletal dynamics. At first, the joint angles, ground reaction forces (GRFs) and muscle activations were predicted and validated for normal average velocity (1.55 m/s) in the single support phase (SSP) by minimizing energy expenditure, which is subject to the non-linear constraints of the gait. The unconstrained system dynamics of extended inverse dynamics (USDEID) approach was used to estimate muscle activations. Then by scaling time and applying the same procedure, the movement trajectories were predicted for higher average velocities (from 2.07 m/s to 4.07 m/s) and compared to the pattern of movement with fast walking speed. The comparison indicated a high level of compatibility between the experimental and predicted results, except for the vertical position of the center of gravity (COG). It was concluded that the gait prediction model can be effectively used to predict gait trajectories for higher average velocities.

Average dispersal success: linking home range, dispersal, and metapopulation dynamics to reserve design.

PubMed

Fagan, William F; Lutscher, Frithjof

2006-04-01

Spatially explicit models for populations are often difficult to tackle mathematically and, in addition, require detailed data on individual movement behavior that are not easily obtained. An approximation known as the "average dispersal success" provides a tool for converting complex models, which may include stage structure and a mechanistic description of dispersal, into a simple matrix model. This simpler matrix model has two key advantages. First, it is easier to parameterize from the types of empirical data typically available to conservation biologists, such as survivorship, fecundity, and the fraction of juveniles produced in a study area that also recruit within the study area. Second, it is more amenable to theoretical investigation. Here, we use the average dispersal success approximation to develop estimates of the critical reserve size for systems comprising single patches or simple metapopulations. The quantitative approach can be used for both plants and animals; however, to provide a concrete example of the technique's utility, we focus on a special case pertinent to animals. Specifically, for territorial animals, we can characterize such an estimate of minimum viable habitat area in terms of the number of home ranges that the reserve contains. Consequently, the average dispersal success framework provides a framework through which home range size, natal dispersal distances, and metapopulation dynamics can be linked to reserve design. We briefly illustrate the approach using empirical data for the swift fox (Vulpes velox).

A Hybrid Neural Network Model for Sales Forecasting Based on ARIMA and Search Popularity of Article Titles.

PubMed

Omar, Hani; Hoang, Van Hai; Liu, Duen-Ren

2016-01-01

Enhancing sales and operations planning through forecasting analysis and business intelligence is demanded in many industries and enterprises. Publishing industries usually pick attractive titles and headlines for their stories to increase sales, since popular article titles and headlines can attract readers to buy magazines. In this paper, information retrieval techniques are adopted to extract words from article titles. The popularity measures of article titles are then analyzed by using the search indexes obtained from Google search engine. Backpropagation Neural Networks (BPNNs) have successfully been used to develop prediction models for sales forecasting. In this study, we propose a novel hybrid neural network model for sales forecasting based on the prediction result of time series forecasting and the popularity of article titles. The proposed model uses the historical sales data, popularity of article titles, and the prediction result of a time series, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) forecasting method to learn a BPNN-based forecasting model. Our proposed forecasting model is experimentally evaluated by comparing with conventional sales prediction techniques. The experimental result shows that our proposed forecasting method outperforms conventional techniques which do not consider the popularity of title words.

A Hybrid Neural Network Model for Sales Forecasting Based on ARIMA and Search Popularity of Article Titles

PubMed Central

Omar, Hani; Hoang, Van Hai; Liu, Duen-Ren

2016-01-01

Enhancing sales and operations planning through forecasting analysis and business intelligence is demanded in many industries and enterprises. Publishing industries usually pick attractive titles and headlines for their stories to increase sales, since popular article titles and headlines can attract readers to buy magazines. In this paper, information retrieval techniques are adopted to extract words from article titles. The popularity measures of article titles are then analyzed by using the search indexes obtained from Google search engine. Backpropagation Neural Networks (BPNNs) have successfully been used to develop prediction models for sales forecasting. In this study, we propose a novel hybrid neural network model for sales forecasting based on the prediction result of time series forecasting and the popularity of article titles. The proposed model uses the historical sales data, popularity of article titles, and the prediction result of a time series, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) forecasting method to learn a BPNN-based forecasting model. Our proposed forecasting model is experimentally evaluated by comparing with conventional sales prediction techniques. The experimental result shows that our proposed forecasting method outperforms conventional techniques which do not consider the popularity of title words. PMID:27313605

Visual feature extraction from voxel-weighted averaging of stimulus images in 2 fMRI studies.

PubMed

Hart, Corey B; Rose, William J

2013-11-01

Multiple studies have provided evidence for distributed object representation in the brain, with several recent experiments leveraging basis function estimates for partial image reconstruction from fMRI data. Using a novel combination of statistical decomposition, generalized linear models, and stimulus averaging on previously examined image sets and Bayesian regression of recorded fMRI activity during presentation of these data sets, we identify a subset of relevant voxels that appear to code for covarying object features. Using a technique we term "voxel-weighted averaging," we isolate image filters that these voxels appear to implement. The results, though very cursory, appear to have significant implications for hierarchical and deep-learning-type approaches toward the understanding of neural coding and representation.

Novel Human Intervertebral Disc Strain Template to Quantify Regional Three-Dimensional Strains in a Population and Compare to Internal Strains Predicted by a Finite Element Model

PubMed Central

Showalter, Brent L.; DeLucca, John F.; Peloquin, John M.; Cortes, Daniel H.; Yoder, Jonathon H.; Jacobs, Nathan T.; Wright, Alexander C.; Gee, James C.; Vresilovic, Edward J.; Elliott, Dawn M.

2017-01-01

Tissue strain is an important indicator of mechanical function, but is difficult to noninvasively measure in the intervertebral disc. The objective of this study was to generate a disc strain template, a 3D average of disc strain, of a group of human L4–L5 discs loaded in axial compression. To do so, magnetic resonance images of uncompressed discs were used to create an average disc shape. Next, the strain tensors were calculated pixel-wise by using a previously developed registration algorithm. Individual disc strain tensor components were then transformed to the template space and averaged to create the disc strain template. The strain template reduced individual variability while highlighting group trends. For example, higher axial and circumferential strains were present in the lateral and posterolateral regions of the disc, which may lead to annular tears. This quantification of group-level trends in local 3D strain is a significant step forward in the study of disc biomechanics. These trends were compared to a finite element model that had been previously validated against the disc-level mechanical response. Depending on the strain component, 81–99% of the regions within the finite element model had calculated strains within one standard deviation of the template strain results. The template creation technique provides a new measurement technique useful for a wide range of studies, including more complex loading conditions, the effect of disc pathologies and degeneration, damage mechanisms, and design and evaluation of treatments. PMID:26694516

Evaluation of Observation-Fused Regional Air Quality Model Results for Population Air Pollution Exposure Estimation

PubMed Central

Chen, Gang; Li, Jingyi; Ying, Qi; Sherman, Seth; Perkins, Neil; Rajeshwari, Sundaram; Mendola, Pauline

2014-01-01

In this study, Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model was applied to predict ambient gaseous and particulate concentrations during 2001 to 2010 in 15 hospital referral regions (HRRs) using a 36-km horizontal resolution domain. An inverse distance weighting based method was applied to produce exposure estimates based on observation-fused regional pollutant concentration fields using the differences between observations and predictions at grid cells where air quality monitors were located. Although the raw CMAQ model is capable of producing satisfying results for O3 and PM2.5 based on EPA guidelines, using the observation data fusing technique to correct CMAQ predictions leads to significant improvement of model performance for all gaseous and particulate pollutants. Regional average concentrations were calculated using five different methods: 1) inverse distance weighting of observation data alone, 2) raw CMAQ results, 3) observation-fused CMAQ results, 4) population-averaged raw CMAQ results and 5) population-averaged fused CMAQ results. It shows that while O3 (as well as NOx) monitoring networks in the HRR regions are dense enough to provide consistent regional average exposure estimation based on monitoring data alone, PM2.5 observation sites (as well as monitors for CO, SO2, PM10 and PM2.5 components) are usually sparse and the difference between the average concentrations estimated by the inverse distance interpolated observations, raw CMAQ and fused CMAQ results can be significantly different. Population-weighted average should be used to account spatial variation in pollutant concentration and population density. Using raw CMAQ results or observations alone might lead to significant biases in health outcome analyses. PMID:24747248

The sterile-male-release technique in Great Lakes sea lamprey management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Twohey, Michael B.; Heinrich, John W.; Seelye, James G.; Fredricks, Kim T.; Bergstedt, Roger A.; Kaye, Cheryl A.; Scholefield, Ron J.; McDonald, Rodney B.; Christie, Gavin C.

2003-01-01

The implementation of a sterile-male-release technique from 1991 through 1999 and evaluation of its effectiveness in the Great Lakes sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) management program is reviewed. Male sea lampreys were injected with the chemosterilant bisazir (P,P-bis(1-aziridinyl)-N-methylphosphinothioic amide) using a robotic device. Quality assurance testing indicated the device delivered a consistent and effective dose of bisazir. Viability of embryos in an untreated control group was 64% compared to 1% in a treatment group. A task force developed nine hypotheses to guide implementation and evaluation of the technique. An annual average of 26,000 male sea lampreys was harvested from as many as 17 Great Lakes tributaries for use in the technique. An annual average of 16,100 sterilized males was released into 33 tributaries of Lake Superior to achieve a theoretical 59% reduction in larval production during 1991 to 1996. The average number of sterile males released in the St. Marys River increased from 4,000 during 1991 to 1996 to 20,100 during 1997 to 1999. The theoretical reduc-stertion in reproduction when combined with trapping was 57% during 1991 to 1996 and 86% during 1997 to 1999. Evaluation studies demonstrated that sterilized males were competitive and reduced production of larvae in streams. Field studies and simulation models suggest reductions in reproduction will result in fewer recruits, but there is risk of periodic high recruitment events independent of sterile-male release. Strategies to reduce reproduction will be most reliable when low densities of reproducing females are achieved. Expansion of the technique is limited by access to additional males for sterilization. Sterile-male release and other alternative controls are important in delivering integrated pest management and in reducing reliance on pesticides.

Poster — Thur Eve — 45: Comparison of different Monte Carlo methods of scoring linear energy transfer in modulated proton therapy beams

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Granville, DA; Sawakuchi, GO

2014-08-15

In this work, we demonstrate inconsistencies in commonly used Monte Carlo methods of scoring linear energy transfer (LET) in proton therapy beams. In particle therapy beams, the LET is an important parameter because the relative biological effectiveness (RBE) depends on it. LET is often determined using Monte Carlo techniques. We used a realistic Monte Carlo model of a proton therapy nozzle to score proton LET in spread-out Bragg peak (SOBP) depth-dose distributions. We used three different scoring and calculation techniques to determine average LET at varying depths within a 140 MeV beam with a 4 cm SOBP and a 250more » MeV beam with a 10 cm SOBP. These techniques included fluence-weighted (Φ-LET) and dose-weighted average (D-LET) LET calculations from: 1) scored energy spectra converted to LET spectra through a lookup table, 2) directly scored LET spectra and 3) accumulated LET scored ‘on-the-fly’ during simulations. All protons (primary and secondary) were included in the scoring. Φ-LET was found to be less sensitive to changes in scoring technique than D-LET. In addition, the spectral scoring methods were sensitive to low-energy (high-LET) cutoff values in the averaging. Using cutoff parameters chosen carefully for consistency between techniques, we found variations in Φ-LET values of up to 1.6% and variations in D-LET values of up to 11.2% for the same irradiation conditions, depending on the method used to score LET. Variations were largest near the end of the SOBP, where the LET and energy spectra are broader.« less

Predicting groundwater level fluctuations with meteorological effect implications—A comparative study among soft computing techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shiri, Jalal; Kisi, Ozgur; Yoon, Heesung; Lee, Kang-Kun; Hossein Nazemi, Amir

2013-07-01

The knowledge of groundwater table fluctuations is important in agricultural lands as well as in the studies related to groundwater utilization and management levels. This paper investigates the abilities of Gene Expression Programming (GEP), Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) techniques for groundwater level forecasting in following day up to 7-day prediction intervals. Several input combinations comprising water table level, rainfall and evapotranspiration values from Hongcheon Well station (South Korea), covering a period of eight years (2001-2008) were used to develop and test the applied models. The data from the first six years were used for developing (training) the applied models and the last two years data were reserved for testing. A comparison was also made between the forecasts provided by these models and the Auto-Regressive Moving Average (ARMA) technique. Based on the comparisons, it was found that the GEP models could be employed successfully in forecasting water table level fluctuations up to 7 days beyond data records.

Probing the solar corona with very long baseline interferometry.

PubMed

Soja, B; Heinkelmann, R; Schuh, H

2014-06-20

Understanding and monitoring the solar corona and solar wind is important for many applications like telecommunications or geomagnetic studies. Coronal electron density models have been derived by various techniques over the last 45 years, principally by analysing the effect of the corona on spacecraft tracking. Here we show that recent observational data from very long baseline interferometry (VLBI), a radio technique crucial for astrophysics and geodesy, could be used to develop electron density models of the Sun's corona. The VLBI results agree well with previous models from spacecraft measurements. They also show that the simple spherical electron density model is violated by regional density variations and that on average the electron density in active regions is about three times that of low-density regions. Unlike spacecraft tracking, a VLBI campaign would be possible on a regular basis and would provide highly resolved spatial-temporal samplings over a complete solar cycle.

Predictive time-series modeling using artificial neural networks for Linac beam symmetry: an empirical study.

PubMed

Li, Qiongge; Chan, Maria F

2017-01-01

Over half of cancer patients receive radiotherapy (RT) as partial or full cancer treatment. Daily quality assurance (QA) of RT in cancer treatment closely monitors the performance of the medical linear accelerator (Linac) and is critical for continuous improvement of patient safety and quality of care. Cumulative longitudinal QA measurements are valuable for understanding the behavior of the Linac and allow physicists to identify trends in the output and take preventive actions. In this study, artificial neural networks (ANNs) and autoregressive moving average (ARMA) time-series prediction modeling techniques were both applied to 5-year daily Linac QA data. Verification tests and other evaluations were then performed for all models. Preliminary results showed that ANN time-series predictive modeling has more advantages over ARMA techniques for accurate and effective applicability in the dosimetry and QA field. © 2016 New York Academy of Sciences.

Preliminary evaluation of spectral, normal and meteorological crop stage estimation approaches

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cate, R. B.; Artley, J. A.; Doraiswamy, P. C.; Hodges, T.; Kinsler, M. C.; Phinney, D. E.; Sestak, M. L. (Principal Investigator)

1980-01-01

Several of the projects in the AgRISTARS program require crop phenology information, including classification, acreage and yield estimation, and detection of episodal events. This study evaluates several crop calendar estimation techniques for their potential use in the program. The techniques, although generic in approach, were developed and tested on spring wheat data collected in 1978. There are three basic approaches to crop stage estimation: historical averages for an area (normal crop calendars), agrometeorological modeling of known crop-weather relationships agrometeorological (agromet) crop calendars, and interpretation of spectral signatures (spectral crop calendars). In all, 10 combinations of planting and biostage estimation models were evaluated. Dates of stage occurrence are estimated with biases between -4 and +4 days while root mean square errors range from 10 to 15 days. Results are inconclusive as to the superiority of any of the models and further evaluation of the models with the 1979 data set is recommended.

Validation of scintillometer measurements over a heterogeneous landscape: The LITFASS-2009 Experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beyrich, F.; Bange, J.; Hartogensis, O.; Raasch, S.

2009-09-01

The turbulent exchange of heat and water vapour are essential land surface - atmosphere interaction processes in the local, regional and global energy and water cycles. Scintillometry can be considered as the only technique presently available for the quasi-operational experimental determination of area-averaged turbulent fluxes needed to validate the fluxes simulated by regional atmospheric models or derived from satellite images at a horizontal scale of a few kilometres. While scintillometry has found increasing application over the last years, some fundamental issues related to its use still need further investigation. In particular, no studies are known so far to reproduce the path-averaged structure parameters measured by scintillometers by independent measurements or modelling techniques. The LITFASS-2009 field experiment has been performed in the area around the Meteorological Observatory Lindenberg / Richard-Aßmann-Observatory in Germany during summer 2009. It was designed to investigate the spatial (horizontal and vertical) and temporal variability of structure parameters (underlying the scintillometer principle) over moderately heterogeneous terrain. The experiment essentially relied on a coupling of eddy-covariance measurements, scintillometry and airborne measurements with an unmanned autonomous aircraft able to strictly fly along the scintillometer path. Data interpretation will be supported by numerical modelling using a large-eddy simulation (LES) model. The paper will describe the design of the experiment. First preliminary results from the measurements will be presented.

Covariate selection with group lasso and doubly robust estimation of causal effects

PubMed Central

Koch, Brandon; Vock, David M.; Wolfson, Julian

2017-01-01

Summary The efficiency of doubly robust estimators of the average causal effect (ACE) of a treatment can be improved by including in the treatment and outcome models only those covariates which are related to both treatment and outcome (i.e., confounders) or related only to the outcome. However, it is often challenging to identify such covariates among the large number that may be measured in a given study. In this paper, we propose GLiDeR (Group Lasso and Doubly Robust Estimation), a novel variable selection technique for identifying confounders and predictors of outcome using an adaptive group lasso approach that simultaneously performs coefficient selection, regularization, and estimation across the treatment and outcome models. The selected variables and corresponding coefficient estimates are used in a standard doubly robust ACE estimator. We provide asymptotic results showing that, for a broad class of data generating mechanisms, GLiDeR yields a consistent estimator of the ACE when either the outcome or treatment model is correctly specified. A comprehensive simulation study shows that GLiDeR is more efficient than doubly robust methods using standard variable selection techniques and has substantial computational advantages over a recently proposed doubly robust Bayesian model averaging method. We illustrate our method by estimating the causal treatment effect of bilateral versus single-lung transplant on forced expiratory volume in one year after transplant using an observational registry. PMID:28636276

Covariate selection with group lasso and doubly robust estimation of causal effects.

PubMed

Koch, Brandon; Vock, David M; Wolfson, Julian

2018-03-01

The efficiency of doubly robust estimators of the average causal effect (ACE) of a treatment can be improved by including in the treatment and outcome models only those covariates which are related to both treatment and outcome (i.e., confounders) or related only to the outcome. However, it is often challenging to identify such covariates among the large number that may be measured in a given study. In this article, we propose GLiDeR (Group Lasso and Doubly Robust Estimation), a novel variable selection technique for identifying confounders and predictors of outcome using an adaptive group lasso approach that simultaneously performs coefficient selection, regularization, and estimation across the treatment and outcome models. The selected variables and corresponding coefficient estimates are used in a standard doubly robust ACE estimator. We provide asymptotic results showing that, for a broad class of data generating mechanisms, GLiDeR yields a consistent estimator of the ACE when either the outcome or treatment model is correctly specified. A comprehensive simulation study shows that GLiDeR is more efficient than doubly robust methods using standard variable selection techniques and has substantial computational advantages over a recently proposed doubly robust Bayesian model averaging method. We illustrate our method by estimating the causal treatment effect of bilateral versus single-lung transplant on forced expiratory volume in one year after transplant using an observational registry. © 2017, The International Biometric Society.

Reconsidering Findings of "No Effects" in Randomized Control Trials: Modeling Differences in Treatment Impacts

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chaney, Bradford

2016-01-01

The primary technique that many researchers use to analyze data from randomized control trials (RCTs)--detecting the average treatment effect (ATE)--imposes assumptions upon the data that often are not correct. Both theory and past research suggest that treatments may have significant impacts on subgroups even when showing no overall effect.…

Using Sibling Samples To Assess the Effect of Childhood Family Income on Completed Schooling. JCPR Working Paper.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Levy, Dan; Duncan, Greg J.

This study assessed the impact of family childhood income on completed years of schooling using fixed effects techniques to eliminate biases associated with omission of unmeasured family characteristics. It also examined the importance of timing of family income, estimating models that related years of completed schooling to average levels of…

Modelling the spatial distribution of Fasciola hepatica in bovines using decision tree, logistic regression and GIS query approaches for Brazil.

PubMed

Bennema, S C; Molento, M B; Scholte, R G; Carvalho, O S; Pritsch, I

2017-11-01

Fascioliasis is a condition caused by the trematode Fasciola hepatica. In this paper, the spatial distribution of F. hepatica in bovines in Brazil was modelled using a decision tree approach and a logistic regression, combined with a geographic information system (GIS) query. In the decision tree and the logistic model, isothermality had the strongest influence on disease prevalence. Also, the 50-year average precipitation in the warmest quarter of the year was included as a risk factor, having a negative influence on the parasite prevalence. The risk maps developed using both techniques, showed a predicted higher prevalence mainly in the South of Brazil. The prediction performance seemed to be high, but both techniques failed to reach a high accuracy in predicting the medium and high prevalence classes to the entire country. The GIS query map, based on the range of isothermality, minimum temperature of coldest month, precipitation of warmest quarter of the year, altitude and the average dailyland surface temperature, showed a possibility of presence of F. hepatica in a very large area. The risk maps produced using these methods can be used to focus activities of animal and public health programmes, even on non-evaluated F. hepatica areas.

Characterizing Detrended Fluctuation Analysis of multifractional Brownian motion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Setty, V. A.; Sharma, A. S.

2015-02-01

The Hurst exponent (H) is widely used to quantify long range dependence in time series data and is estimated using several well known techniques. Recognizing its ability to remove trends the Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) is used extensively to estimate a Hurst exponent in non-stationary data. Multifractional Brownian motion (mBm) broadly encompasses a set of models of non-stationary data exhibiting time varying Hurst exponents, H(t) as against a constant H. Recently, there has been a growing interest in time dependence of H(t) and sliding window techniques have been used to estimate a local time average of the exponent. This brought to fore the ability of DFA to estimate scaling exponents in systems with time varying H(t) , such as mBm. This paper characterizes the performance of DFA on mBm data with linearly varying H(t) and further test the robustness of estimated time average with respect to data and technique related parameters. Our results serve as a bench-mark for using DFA as a sliding window estimator to obtain H(t) from time series data.

Risk assessments using the Strain Index and the TLV for HAL, Part II: Multi-task jobs and prevalence of CTS.

PubMed

Kapellusch, Jay M; Silverstein, Barbara A; Bao, Stephen S; Thiese, Mathew S; Merryweather, Andrew S; Hegmann, Kurt T; Garg, Arun

2018-02-01

The Strain Index (SI) and the American Conference of Governmental Industrial Hygienists (ACGIH) threshold limit value for hand activity level (TLV for HAL) have been shown to be associated with prevalence of distal upper-limb musculoskeletal disorders such as carpal tunnel syndrome (CTS). The SI and TLV for HAL disagree on more than half of task exposure classifications. Similarly, time-weighted average (TWA), peak, and typical exposure techniques used to quantity physical exposure from multi-task jobs have shown between-technique agreement ranging from 61% to 93%, depending upon whether the SI or TLV for HAL model was used. This study compared exposure-response relationships between each model-technique combination and prevalence of CTS. Physical exposure data from 1,834 workers (710 with multi-task jobs) were analyzed using the SI and TLV for HAL and the TWA, typical, and peak multi-task job exposure techniques. Additionally, exposure classifications from the SI and TLV for HAL were combined into a single measure and evaluated. Prevalent CTS cases were identified using symptoms and nerve-conduction studies. Mixed effects logistic regression was used to quantify exposure-response relationships between categorized (i.e., low, medium, and high) physical exposure and CTS prevalence for all model-technique combinations, and for multi-task workers, mono-task workers, and all workers combined. Except for TWA TLV for HAL, all model-technique combinations showed monotonic increases in risk of CTS with increased physical exposure. The combined-models approach showed stronger association than the SI or TLV for HAL for multi-task workers. Despite differences in exposure classifications, nearly all model-technique combinations showed exposure-response relationships with prevalence of CTS for the combined sample of mono-task and multi-task workers. Both the TLV for HAL and the SI, with the TWA or typical techniques, appear useful for epidemiological studies and surveillance. However, the utility of TWA, typical, and peak techniques for job design and intervention is dubious.

Comparison of hybrid spectral-decomposition artificial neural network models for understanding climatic forcing of groundwater levels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abrokwah, K.; O'Reilly, A. M.

2017-12-01

Groundwater is an important resource that is extracted every day because of its invaluable use for domestic, industrial and agricultural purposes. The need for sustaining groundwater resources is clearly indicated by declining water levels and has led to modeling and forecasting accurate groundwater levels. In this study, spectral decomposition of climatic forcing time series was used to develop hybrid wavelet analysis (WA) and moving window average (MWA) artificial neural network (ANN) models. These techniques are explored by modeling historical groundwater levels in order to provide understanding of potential causes of the observed groundwater-level fluctuations. Selection of the appropriate decomposition level for WA and window size for MWA helps in understanding the important time scales of climatic forcing, such as rainfall, that influence water levels. Discrete wavelet transform (DWT) is used to decompose the input time-series data into various levels of approximate and details wavelet coefficients, whilst MWA acts as a low-pass signal-filtering technique for removing high-frequency signals from the input data. The variables used to develop and validate the models were daily average rainfall measurements from five National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration (NOAA) weather stations and daily water-level measurements from two wells recorded from 1978 to 2008 in central Florida, USA. Using different decomposition levels and different window sizes, several WA-ANN and MWA-ANN models for simulating the water levels were created and their relative performances compared against each other. The WA-ANN models performed better than the corresponding MWA-ANN models; also higher decomposition levels of the input signal by the DWT gave the best results. The results obtained show the applicability and feasibility of hybrid WA-ANN and MWA-ANN models for simulating daily water levels using only climatic forcing time series as model inputs.

Modeling zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis incidence in central Tunisia from 2009-2015: Forecasting models using climate variables as predictors

PubMed Central

Bellali, Hedia; Ben-Alaya, Nissaf; Saez, Marc; Malouche, Dhafer; Chahed, Mohamed Kouni

2017-01-01

Transmission of zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis (ZCL) depends on the presence, density and distribution of Leishmania major rodent reservoir and the development of these rodents is known to have a significant dependence on environmental and climate factors. ZCL in Tunisia is one of the most common forms of leishmaniasis. The aim of this paper was to build a regression model of ZCL cases to identify the relationship between ZCL occurrence and possible risk factors, and to develop a predicting model for ZCL's control and prevention purposes. Monthly reported ZCL cases, environmental and bioclimatic data were collected over 6 years (2009–2015). Three rural areas in the governorate of Sidi Bouzid were selected as the study area. Cross-correlation analysis was used to identify the relevant lagged effects of possible risk factors, associated with ZCL cases. Non-parametric modeling techniques known as generalized additive model (GAM) and generalized additive mixed models (GAMM) were applied in this work. These techniques have the ability to approximate the relationship between the predictors (inputs) and the response variable (output), and express the relationship mathematically. The goodness-of-fit of the constructed model was determined by Generalized cross-validation (GCV) score and residual test. There were a total of 1019 notified ZCL cases from July 2009 to June 2015. The results showed seasonal distribution of reported ZCL cases from August to January. The model highlighted that rodent density, average temperature, cumulative rainfall and average relative humidity, with different time lags, all play role in sustaining and increasing the ZCL incidence. The GAMM model could be applied to predict the occurrence of ZCL in central Tunisia and could help for the establishment of an early warning system to control and prevent ZCL in central Tunisia. PMID:28841642

Modeling zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis incidence in central Tunisia from 2009-2015: Forecasting models using climate variables as predictors.

PubMed

Talmoudi, Khouloud; Bellali, Hedia; Ben-Alaya, Nissaf; Saez, Marc; Malouche, Dhafer; Chahed, Mohamed Kouni

2017-08-01

Transmission of zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis (ZCL) depends on the presence, density and distribution of Leishmania major rodent reservoir and the development of these rodents is known to have a significant dependence on environmental and climate factors. ZCL in Tunisia is one of the most common forms of leishmaniasis. The aim of this paper was to build a regression model of ZCL cases to identify the relationship between ZCL occurrence and possible risk factors, and to develop a predicting model for ZCL's control and prevention purposes. Monthly reported ZCL cases, environmental and bioclimatic data were collected over 6 years (2009-2015). Three rural areas in the governorate of Sidi Bouzid were selected as the study area. Cross-correlation analysis was used to identify the relevant lagged effects of possible risk factors, associated with ZCL cases. Non-parametric modeling techniques known as generalized additive model (GAM) and generalized additive mixed models (GAMM) were applied in this work. These techniques have the ability to approximate the relationship between the predictors (inputs) and the response variable (output), and express the relationship mathematically. The goodness-of-fit of the constructed model was determined by Generalized cross-validation (GCV) score and residual test. There were a total of 1019 notified ZCL cases from July 2009 to June 2015. The results showed seasonal distribution of reported ZCL cases from August to January. The model highlighted that rodent density, average temperature, cumulative rainfall and average relative humidity, with different time lags, all play role in sustaining and increasing the ZCL incidence. The GAMM model could be applied to predict the occurrence of ZCL in central Tunisia and could help for the establishment of an early warning system to control and prevent ZCL in central Tunisia.

A survey of nested grid techniques and their potential for use within the MASS weather prediction model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koch, Steven E.; Mcqueen, Jeffery T.

1987-01-01

A survey of various one- and two-way interactive nested grid techniques used in hydrostatic numerical weather prediction models is presented and the advantages and disadvantages of each method are discussed. The techniques for specifying the lateral boundary conditions for each nested grid scheme are described in detail. Averaging and interpolation techniques used when applying the coarse mesh grid (CMG) and fine mesh grid (FMG) interface conditions during two-way nesting are discussed separately. The survey shows that errors are commonly generated at the boundary between the CMG and FMG due to boundary formulation or specification discrepancies. Methods used to control this noise include application of smoothers, enhanced diffusion, or damping-type time integration schemes to model variables. The results from this survey provide the information needed to decide which one-way and two-way nested grid schemes merit future testing with the Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System (MASS) model. An analytically specified baroclinic wave will be used to conduct systematic tests of the chosen schemes since this will allow for objective determination of the interfacial noise in the kind of meteorological setting for which MASS is designed. Sample diagnostic plots from initial tests using the analytic wave are presented to illustrate how the model-generated noise is ascertained. These plots will be used to compare the accuracy of the various nesting schemes when incorporated into the MASS model.

Beating-heart registration for organ-mounted robots.

PubMed

Wood, Nathan A; Schwartzman, David; Passineau, Michael J; Moraca, Robert J; Zenati, Marco A; Riviere, Cameron N

2018-03-06

Organ-mounted robots address the problem of beating-heart surgery by adhering to the heart, passively providing a platform that approaches zero relative motion. Because of the quasi-periodic deformation of the heart due to heartbeat and respiration, registration must address not only spatial registration but also temporal registration. Motion data were collected in the porcine model in vivo (N = 6). Fourier series models of heart motion were developed. By comparing registrations generated using an iterative closest-point approach at different phases of respiration, the phase corresponding to minimum registration distance is identified. The spatiotemporal registration technique presented here reduces registration error by an average of 4.2 mm over the 6 trials, in comparison with a more simplistic static registration that merely averages out the physiological motion. An empirical metric for spatiotemporal registration of organ-mounted robots is defined and demonstrated using data from animal models in vivo. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Apps to promote physical activity among adults: a review and content analysis

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background In May 2013, the iTunes and Google Play stores contained 23,490 and 17,756 smartphone applications (apps) categorized as Health and Fitness, respectively. The quality of these apps, in terms of applying established health behavior change techniques, remains unclear. Methods The study sample was identified through systematic searches in iTunes and Google Play. Search terms were based on Boolean logic and included AND combinations for physical activity, healthy lifestyle, exercise, fitness, coach, assistant, motivation, and support. Sixty-four apps were downloaded, reviewed, and rated based on the taxonomy of behavior change techniques used in the interventions. Mean and ranges were calculated for the number of observed behavior change techniques. Using nonparametric tests, we compared the number of techniques observed in free and paid apps and in iTunes and Google Play. Results On average, the reviewed apps included 5 behavior change techniques (range 2–8). Techniques such as self-monitoring, providing feedback on performance, and goal-setting were used most frequently, whereas some techniques such as motivational interviewing, stress management, relapse prevention, self-talk, role models, and prompted barrier identification were not. No differences in the number of behavior change techniques between free and paid apps, or between the app stores were found. Conclusions The present study demonstrated that apps promoting physical activity applied an average of 5 out of 23 possible behavior change techniques. This number was not different for paid and free apps or between app stores. The most frequently used behavior change techniques in apps were similar to those most frequently used in other types of physical activity promotion interventions. PMID:25059981

In vivo evaluation of inter-operator reproducibility of digital dental and conventional impression techniques.

PubMed

Kamimura, Emi; Tanaka, Shinpei; Takaba, Masayuki; Tachi, Keita; Baba, Kazuyoshi

2017-01-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate and compare the inter-operator reproducibility of three-dimensional (3D) images of teeth captured by a digital impression technique to a conventional impression technique in vivo. Twelve participants with complete natural dentition were included in this study. A digital impression of the mandibular molars of these participants was made by two operators with different levels of clinical experience, 3 or 16 years, using an intra-oral scanner (Lava COS, 3M ESPE). A silicone impression also was made by the same operators using the double mix impression technique (Imprint3, 3M ESPE). Stereolithography (STL) data were directly exported from the Lava COS system, while STL data of a plaster model made from silicone impression were captured by a three-dimensional (3D) laboratory scanner (D810, 3shape). The STL datasets recorded by two different operators were compared using 3D evaluation software and superimposed using the best-fit-algorithm method (least-squares method, PolyWorks, InnovMetric Software) for each impression technique. Inter-operator reproducibility as evaluated by average discrepancies of corresponding 3D data was compared between the two techniques (Wilcoxon signed-rank test). The visual inspection of superimposed datasets revealed that discrepancies between repeated digital impression were smaller than observed with silicone impression. Confirmation was forthcoming from statistical analysis revealing significantly smaller average inter-operator reproducibility using a digital impression technique (0.014± 0.02 mm) than when using a conventional impression technique (0.023 ± 0.01 mm). The results of this in vivo study suggest that inter-operator reproducibility with a digital impression technique may be better than that of a conventional impression technique and is independent of the clinical experience of the operator.

Non-contact thrust stand calibration method for repetitively pulsed electric thrusters.

PubMed

Wong, Andrea R; Toftul, Alexandra; Polzin, Kurt A; Pearson, J Boise

2012-02-01

A thrust stand calibration technique for use in testing repetitively pulsed electric thrusters for in-space propulsion has been developed and tested using a modified hanging pendulum thrust stand. In the implementation of this technique, current pulses are applied to a solenoid to produce a pulsed magnetic field that acts against a permanent magnet mounted to the thrust stand pendulum arm. The force on the magnet is applied in this non-contact manner, with the entire pulsed force transferred to the pendulum arm through a piezoelectric force transducer to provide a time-accurate force measurement. Modeling of the pendulum arm dynamics reveals that after an initial transient in thrust stand motion the quasi-steady average deflection of the thrust stand arm away from the unforced or "zero" position can be related to the average applied force through a simple linear Hooke's law relationship. Modeling demonstrates that this technique is universally applicable except when the pulsing period is increased to the point where it approaches the period of natural thrust stand motion. Calibration data were obtained using a modified hanging pendulum thrust stand previously used for steady-state thrust measurements. Data were obtained for varying impulse bit at constant pulse frequency and for varying pulse frequency. The two data sets exhibit excellent quantitative agreement with each other. The overall error on the linear regression fit used to determine the calibration coefficient was roughly 1%.

Electricity Consumption in the Industrial Sector of Jordan: Application of Multivariate Linear Regression and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samhouri, M.; Al-Ghandoor, A.; Fouad, R. H.

2009-08-01

In this study two techniques, for modeling electricity consumption of the Jordanian industrial sector, are presented: (i) multivariate linear regression and (ii) neuro-fuzzy models. Electricity consumption is modeled as function of different variables such as number of establishments, number of employees, electricity tariff, prevailing fuel prices, production outputs, capacity utilizations, and structural effects. It was found that industrial production and capacity utilization are the most important variables that have significant effect on future electrical power demand. The results showed that both the multivariate linear regression and neuro-fuzzy models are generally comparable and can be used adequately to simulate industrial electricity consumption. However, comparison that is based on the square root average squared error of data suggests that the neuro-fuzzy model performs slightly better for future prediction of electricity consumption than the multivariate linear regression model. Such results are in full agreement with similar work, using different methods, for other countries.

Source apportionment of speciated PM10 in the United Kingdom in 2008: Episodes and annual averages

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Redington, A. L.; Witham, C. S.; Hort, M. C.

2016-11-01

The Lagrangian atmospheric dispersion model NAME (Numerical Atmospheric-dispersion Modelling Environment), has been used to simulate the formation and transport of PM10 over North-West Europe in 2008. The model has been evaluated against UK measurement data and been shown to adequately represent the observed PM10 at rural and urban sites on a daily basis. The Lagrangian nature of the model allows information on the origin of pollutants (and hence their secondary products) to be retained to allow attribution of pollutants at receptor sites back to their sources. This source apportionment technique has been employed to determine whether the different components of the modelled PM10 have originated from UK, shipping, European (excluding the UK) or background sources. For the first time this has been done to evaluate the composition during periods of elevated PM10 as well as the annual average composition. The episode data were determined by selecting the model data for each hour when the corresponding measurement data was >50 μg/m3. All the modelled sites show an increase in European pollution contribution and a decrease in the background contribution in the episode case compared to the annual average. The European contribution is greatest in southern and eastern parts of the UK and decreases moving northwards and westwards. Analysis of the speciated attribution data over the selected sites reveals that for 2008, as an annual average, the top three contributors to total PM10 are UK primary PM10 (17-25%), UK origin nitrate aerosol (18-21%) and background PM10 (11-16%). Under episode conditions the top three contributors to modelled PM10 are UK origin nitrate aerosol (12-33%), European origin nitrate aerosol (11-19%) and UK primary PM10 (12-18%).

Comparison of two data mining techniques in labeling diagnosis to Iranian pharmacy claim dataset: artificial neural network (ANN) versus decision tree model.

PubMed

Rezaei-Darzi, Ehsan; Farzadfar, Farshad; Hashemi-Meshkini, Amir; Navidi, Iman; Mahmoudi, Mahmoud; Varmaghani, Mehdi; Mehdipour, Parinaz; Soudi Alamdari, Mahsa; Tayefi, Batool; Naderimagham, Shohreh; Soleymani, Fatemeh; Mesdaghinia, Alireza; Delavari, Alireza; Mohammad, Kazem

2014-12-01

This study aimed to evaluate and compare the prediction accuracy of two data mining techniques, including decision tree and neural network models in labeling diagnosis to gastrointestinal prescriptions in Iran. This study was conducted in three phases: data preparation, training phase, and testing phase. A sample from a database consisting of 23 million pharmacy insurance claim records, from 2004 to 2011 was used, in which a total of 330 prescriptions were assessed and used to train and test the models simultaneously. In the training phase, the selected prescriptions were assessed by both a physician and a pharmacist separately and assigned a diagnosis. To test the performance of each model, a k-fold stratified cross validation was conducted in addition to measuring their sensitivity and specificity. Generally, two methods had very similar accuracies. Considering the weighted average of true positive rate (sensitivity) and true negative rate (specificity), the decision tree had slightly higher accuracy in its ability for correct classification (83.3% and 96% versus 80.3% and 95.1%, respectively). However, when the weighted average of ROC area (AUC between each class and all other classes) was measured, the ANN displayed higher accuracies in predicting the diagnosis (93.8% compared with 90.6%). According to the result of this study, artificial neural network and decision tree model represent similar accuracy in labeling diagnosis to GI prescription.

Evaluation of Flow Biosensor Technology in a Chronically-Instrumented Non-Human Primate Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koenig, S. C.; Reister, C.; Schaub, J.; Muniz, G.; Ferguson, T.; Fanton, J. W.

1995-01-01

The Physiology Research Branch of Brooks AFB conducts both human and non-human primate experiments to determine the effects of microgravity and hypergravity on the cardiovascular system and to indentify the particular mechanisms that invoke these responses. Primary investigative research efforts in a non-human primate model require the calculation of total peripheral resistance (TPR), systemic arterial compliance (SAC), and pressure-volume loop characteristics. These calculations require beat-to-beat measurement of aortic flow. We have evaluated commercially available electromagnetic (EMF) and transit-time flow measurement techniques. In vivo and in vitro experiments demonstrated that the average error of these techniques is less than 25 percent for EMF and less than 10 percent for transit-time.

You can run, you can hide: The epidemiology and statistical mechanics of zombies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alemi, Alexander A.; Bierbaum, Matthew; Myers, Christopher R.; Sethna, James P.

2015-11-01

We use a popular fictional disease, zombies, in order to introduce techniques used in modern epidemiology modeling, and ideas and techniques used in the numerical study of critical phenomena. We consider variants of zombie models, from fully connected continuous time dynamics to a full scale exact stochastic dynamic simulation of a zombie outbreak on the continental United States. Along the way, we offer a closed form analytical expression for the fully connected differential equation, and demonstrate that the single person per site two dimensional square lattice version of zombies lies in the percolation universality class. We end with a quantitative study of the full scale US outbreak, including the average susceptibility of different geographical regions.

The zonally averaged transport characteristics of the atmosphere as determined by a general circulation model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Plumb, R. A.

1985-01-01

Two dimensional modeling has become an established technique for the simulation of the global structure of trace constituents. Such models are simpler to formulate and cheaper to operate than three dimensional general circulation models, while avoiding some of the gross simplifications of one dimensional models. Nevertheless, the parameterization of eddy fluxes required in a 2-D model is not a trivial problem. This fact has apparently led some to interpret the shortcomings of existing 2-D models as indicating that the parameterization procedure is wrong in principle. There are grounds to believe that these shortcomings result primarily from incorrect implementations of the predictions of eddy transport theory and that a properly based parameterization may provide a good basis for atmospheric modeling. The existence of these GCM-derived coefficients affords an unprecedented opportunity to test the validity of the flux-gradient parameterization. To this end, a zonally averaged (2-D) model was developed, using these coefficients in the transport parameterization. Results from this model for a number of contrived tracer experiments were compared with the parent GCM. The generally good agreement substantially validates the flus-gradient parameterization, and thus the basic principle of 2-D modeling.

Resolving Isotropic Components from Regional Waves using Grid Search and Moment Tensor Inversion Methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ichinose, G. A.; Saikia, C. K.

2007-12-01

We applied the moment tensor (MT) analysis scheme to identify seismic sources using regional seismograms based on the representation theorem for the elastic wave displacement field. This method is applied to estimate the isotropic (ISO) and deviatoric MT components of earthquake, volcanic, and isotropic sources within the Basin and Range Province (BRP) and western US. The ISO components from Hoya, Bexar, Montello and Junction were compared to recently well recorded recent earthquakes near Little Skull Mountain, Scotty's Junction, Eureka Valley, and Fish Lake Valley within southern Nevada. We also examined "dilatational" sources near Mammoth Lakes Caldera and two mine collapses including the August 2007 event in Utah recorded by US Array. Using our formulation we have first implemented the full MT inversion method on long period filtered regional data. We also applied a grid-search technique to solve for the percent deviatoric and %ISO moments. By using the grid-search technique, high-frequency waveforms are used with calibrated velocity models. We modeled the ISO and deviatoric components (spall and tectonic release) as separate events delayed in time or offset in space. Calibrated velocity models helped the resolution of the ISO components and decrease the variance over the average, initial or background velocity models. The centroid location and time shifts are velocity model dependent. Models can be improved as was done in previously published work in which we used an iterative waveform inversion method with regional seismograms from four well recorded and constrained earthquakes. The resulting velocity models reduced the variance between predicted synthetics by about 50 to 80% for frequencies up to 0.5 Hz. Tests indicate that the individual path-specific models perform better at recovering the earthquake MT solutions even after using a sparser distribution of stations than the average or initial models.

Product lifetime, energy efficiency and climate change: A case study of air conditioners in Japan.

PubMed

Nishijima, Daisuke

2016-10-01

This study proposed a modelling technique for estimating life-cycle CO2 emissions of durable goods by considering changes in product lifetime and energy efficiency. The stock and flow of durable goods was modelled by Weibull lifetime distributions and the trend in annual energy efficiency (i.e., annual electricity consumption) of an "average" durable good was formulated as a reverse logistic curve including a technologically critical value (i.e., limit energy efficiency) with respect to time. I found that when the average product lifetime is reduced, there is a trade-off between the reduction in emissions during product use (use phase), due to the additional purchases of new, more energy-efficient air conditioners, and the increase in emissions arising from the additional production of new air conditioners stimulated by the reduction of the average product lifetime. A scenario analysis focused on residential air conditioners in Japan during 1972-2013 showed that for a reduction of average lifetime of 1 year, if the air conditioner energy efficiency limit can be improved by 1.4% from the estimated current efficiency level, then CO2 emissions can be reduced by approximately the same amount as for an extension of average product lifetime of 1 year. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk assessments using the Strain Index and the TLV for HAL, Part I: Task and multi-task job exposure classifications.

PubMed

Kapellusch, Jay M; Bao, Stephen S; Silverstein, Barbara A; Merryweather, Andrew S; Thiese, Mathew S; Hegmann, Kurt T; Garg, Arun

2017-12-01

The Strain Index (SI) and the American Conference of Governmental Industrial Hygienists (ACGIH) Threshold Limit Value for Hand Activity Level (TLV for HAL) use different constituent variables to quantify task physical exposures. Similarly, time-weighted-average (TWA), Peak, and Typical exposure techniques to quantify physical exposure from multi-task jobs make different assumptions about each task's contribution to the whole job exposure. Thus, task and job physical exposure classifications differ depending upon which model and technique are used for quantification. This study examines exposure classification agreement, disagreement, correlation, and magnitude of classification differences between these models and techniques. Data from 710 multi-task job workers performing 3,647 tasks were analyzed using the SI and TLV for HAL models, as well as with the TWA, Typical and Peak job exposure techniques. Physical exposures were classified as low, medium, and high using each model's recommended, or a priori limits. Exposure classification agreement and disagreement between models (SI, TLV for HAL) and between job exposure techniques (TWA, Typical, Peak) were described and analyzed. Regardless of technique, the SI classified more tasks as high exposure than the TLV for HAL, and the TLV for HAL classified more tasks as low exposure. The models agreed on 48.5% of task classifications (kappa = 0.28) with 15.5% of disagreement between low and high exposure categories. Between-technique (i.e., TWA, Typical, Peak) agreement ranged from 61-93% (kappa: 0.16-0.92) depending on whether the SI or TLV for HAL was used. There was disagreement between the SI and TLV for HAL and between the TWA, Typical and Peak techniques. Disagreement creates uncertainty for job design, job analysis, risk assessments, and developing interventions. Task exposure classifications from the SI and TLV for HAL might complement each other. However, TWA, Typical, and Peak job exposure techniques all have limitations. Part II of this article examines whether the observed differences between these models and techniques produce different exposure-response relationships for predicting prevalence of carpal tunnel syndrome.

Large Eddy Simulation and Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes modeling of flow in a realistic pharyngeal airway model: an investigation of obstructive sleep apnea.

PubMed

Mihaescu, Mihai; Murugappan, Shanmugam; Kalra, Maninder; Khosla, Sid; Gutmark, Ephraim

2008-07-19

Computational fluid dynamics techniques employing primarily steady Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) methodology have been recently used to characterize the transitional/turbulent flow field in human airways. The use of RANS implies that flow phenomena are averaged over time, the flow dynamics not being captured. Further, RANS uses two-equation turbulence models that are not adequate for predicting anisotropic flows, flows with high streamline curvature, or flows where separation occurs. A more accurate approach for such flow situations that occur in the human airway is Large Eddy Simulation (LES). The paper considers flow modeling in a pharyngeal airway model reconstructed from cross-sectional magnetic resonance scans of a patient with obstructive sleep apnea. The airway model is characterized by a maximum narrowing at the site of retropalatal pharynx. Two flow-modeling strategies are employed: steady RANS and the LES approach. In the RANS modeling framework both k-epsilon and k-omega turbulence models are used. The paper discusses the differences between the airflow characteristics obtained from the RANS and LES calculations. The largest discrepancies were found in the axial velocity distributions downstream of the minimum cross-sectional area. This region is characterized by flow separation and large radial velocity gradients across the developed shear layers. The largest difference in static pressure distributions on the airway walls was found between the LES and the k-epsilon data at the site of maximum narrowing in the retropalatal pharynx.

Evaluation of Near-Tropopause Ozone Distributions in the Global Modeling Initiative Combined Stratosphere/Troposphere Model with Ozonesonde Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Considine, David B.; Logan, Jennifer A.; Olsen, Mark A.

2008-01-01

The NASA Global Modeling Initiative has developed a combined stratosphere/troposphere chemistry and transport model which fully represents the processes governing atmospheric composition near the tropopause. We evaluate model ozone distributions near the tropopause, using two high vertical resolution monthly mean ozone profile climatologies constructed with ozonesonde data, one by averaging on pressure levels and the other relative to the thermal tropopause. Model ozone is high biased at the SH tropical and NH midlatitude tropopause by approx. 45% in a 4 deg. latitude x 5 deg. longitude model simulation. Increasing the resolution to 2 deg. x 2.5 deg. increases the NH tropopause high bias to approx. 60%, but decreases the tropical tropopause bias to approx. 30%, an effect of a better-resolved residual circulation. The tropopause ozone biases appear not to be due to an overly vigorous residual circulation or excessive stratosphere/troposphere exchange, but are more likely due to insufficient vertical resolution or excessive vertical diffusion near the tropopause. In the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, model/measurement intercomparisons are strongly affected by the averaging technique. NH and tropical mean model lower stratospheric biases are less than 20%. In the upper troposphere, the 2 deg. x 2.5 deg. simulation exhibits mean high biases of approx. 20% and approx. 35% during April in the tropics and NH midlatitudes, respectively, compared to the pressure averaged climatology. However, relative-to-tropopause averaging produces upper troposphere high biases of approx. 30% and 70% in the tropics and NH midlatitudes. This is because relative-to-tropopause averaging better preserves large cross-tropopause O3 gradients, which are seen in the daily sonde data, but not in daily model profiles. The relative annual cycle of ozone near the tropopause is reproduced very well in the model Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes. In the tropics, the model amplitude of the near tropopause annual cycle is weak. This is likely due to the annual amplitude of mean vertical upwelling near the tropopause, which analysis suggests is approx. 30% weaker than in the real atmosphere.

Designing and evaluating the MULTICOM protein local and global model quality prediction methods in the CASP10 experiment

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Protein model quality assessment is an essential component of generating and using protein structural models. During the Tenth Critical Assessment of Techniques for Protein Structure Prediction (CASP10), we developed and tested four automated methods (MULTICOM-REFINE, MULTICOM-CLUSTER, MULTICOM-NOVEL, and MULTICOM-CONSTRUCT) that predicted both local and global quality of protein structural models. Results MULTICOM-REFINE was a clustering approach that used the average pairwise structural similarity between models to measure the global quality and the average Euclidean distance between a model and several top ranked models to measure the local quality. MULTICOM-CLUSTER and MULTICOM-NOVEL were two new support vector machine-based methods of predicting both the local and global quality of a single protein model. MULTICOM-CONSTRUCT was a new weighted pairwise model comparison (clustering) method that used the weighted average similarity between models in a pool to measure the global model quality. Our experiments showed that the pairwise model assessment methods worked better when a large portion of models in the pool were of good quality, whereas single-model quality assessment methods performed better on some hard targets when only a small portion of models in the pool were of reasonable quality. Conclusions Since digging out a few good models from a large pool of low-quality models is a major challenge in protein structure prediction, single model quality assessment methods appear to be poised to make important contributions to protein structure modeling. The other interesting finding was that single-model quality assessment scores could be used to weight the models by the consensus pairwise model comparison method to improve its accuracy. PMID:24731387

Designing and evaluating the MULTICOM protein local and global model quality prediction methods in the CASP10 experiment.

PubMed

Cao, Renzhi; Wang, Zheng; Cheng, Jianlin

2014-04-15

Protein model quality assessment is an essential component of generating and using protein structural models. During the Tenth Critical Assessment of Techniques for Protein Structure Prediction (CASP10), we developed and tested four automated methods (MULTICOM-REFINE, MULTICOM-CLUSTER, MULTICOM-NOVEL, and MULTICOM-CONSTRUCT) that predicted both local and global quality of protein structural models. MULTICOM-REFINE was a clustering approach that used the average pairwise structural similarity between models to measure the global quality and the average Euclidean distance between a model and several top ranked models to measure the local quality. MULTICOM-CLUSTER and MULTICOM-NOVEL were two new support vector machine-based methods of predicting both the local and global quality of a single protein model. MULTICOM-CONSTRUCT was a new weighted pairwise model comparison (clustering) method that used the weighted average similarity between models in a pool to measure the global model quality. Our experiments showed that the pairwise model assessment methods worked better when a large portion of models in the pool were of good quality, whereas single-model quality assessment methods performed better on some hard targets when only a small portion of models in the pool were of reasonable quality. Since digging out a few good models from a large pool of low-quality models is a major challenge in protein structure prediction, single model quality assessment methods appear to be poised to make important contributions to protein structure modeling. The other interesting finding was that single-model quality assessment scores could be used to weight the models by the consensus pairwise model comparison method to improve its accuracy.

Averaged model to study long-term dynamics of a probe about Mercury

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tresaco, Eva; Carvalho, Jean Paulo S.; Prado, Antonio F. B. A.; Elipe, Antonio; de Moraes, Rodolpho Vilhena

2018-02-01

This paper provides a method for finding initial conditions of frozen orbits for a probe around Mercury. Frozen orbits are those whose orbital elements remain constant on average. Thus, at the same point in each orbit, the satellite always passes at the same altitude. This is very interesting for scientific missions that require close inspection of any celestial body. The orbital dynamics of an artificial satellite about Mercury is governed by the potential attraction of the main body. Besides the Keplerian attraction, we consider the inhomogeneities of the potential of the central body. We include secondary terms of Mercury gravity field from J_2 up to J_6, and the tesseral harmonics \\overline{C}_{22} that is of the same magnitude than zonal J_2. In the case of science missions about Mercury, it is also important to consider third-body perturbation (Sun). Circular restricted three body problem can not be applied to Mercury-Sun system due to its non-negligible orbital eccentricity. Besides the harmonics coefficients of Mercury's gravitational potential, and the Sun gravitational perturbation, our average model also includes Solar acceleration pressure. This simplified model captures the majority of the dynamics of low and high orbits about Mercury. In order to capture the dominant characteristics of the dynamics, short-period terms of the system are removed applying a double-averaging technique. This algorithm is a two-fold process which firstly averages over the period of the satellite, and secondly averages with respect to the period of the third body. This simplified Hamiltonian model is introduced in the Lagrange Planetary equations. Thus, frozen orbits are characterized by a surface depending on three variables: the orbital semimajor axis, eccentricity and inclination. We find frozen orbits for an average altitude of 400 and 1000 km, which are the predicted values for the BepiColombo mission. Finally, the paper delves into the orbital stability of frozen orbits and the temporal evolution of the eccentricity of these orbits.

Average discharge, perennial flow initiation, and channel initiation - small southern Appalachian basins

Treesearch

B. Lane Rivenbark; C. Rhett Jackson

2004-01-01

Regional average evapotranspiration estimates developed by water balance techniques are frequently used to estimate average discharge in ungaged strttams. However, the lower stream size range for the validity of these techniques has not been explored. Flow records were collected and evaluated for 16 small streams in the Southern Appalachians to test whether the...

Machine learning methods reveal the temporal pattern of dengue incidence using meteorological factors in metropolitan Manila, Philippines.

PubMed

Carvajal, Thaddeus M; Viacrusis, Katherine M; Hernandez, Lara Fides T; Ho, Howell T; Amalin, Divina M; Watanabe, Kozo

2018-04-17

Several studies have applied ecological factors such as meteorological variables to develop models and accurately predict the temporal pattern of dengue incidence or occurrence. With the vast amount of studies that investigated this premise, the modeling approaches differ from each study and only use a single statistical technique. It raises the question of whether which technique would be robust and reliable. Hence, our study aims to compare the predictive accuracy of the temporal pattern of Dengue incidence in Metropolitan Manila as influenced by meteorological factors from four modeling techniques, (a) General Additive Modeling, (b) Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with exogenous variables (c) Random Forest and (d) Gradient Boosting. Dengue incidence and meteorological data (flood, precipitation, temperature, southern oscillation index, relative humidity, wind speed and direction) of Metropolitan Manila from January 1, 2009 - December 31, 2013 were obtained from respective government agencies. Two types of datasets were used in the analysis; observed meteorological factors (MF) and its corresponding delayed or lagged effect (LG). After which, these datasets were subjected to the four modeling techniques. The predictive accuracy and variable importance of each modeling technique were calculated and evaluated. Among the statistical modeling techniques, Random Forest showed the best predictive accuracy. Moreover, the delayed or lag effects of the meteorological variables was shown to be the best dataset to use for such purpose. Thus, the model of Random Forest with delayed meteorological effects (RF-LG) was deemed the best among all assessed models. Relative humidity was shown to be the top-most important meteorological factor in the best model. The study exhibited that there are indeed different predictive outcomes generated from each statistical modeling technique and it further revealed that the Random forest model with delayed meteorological effects to be the best in predicting the temporal pattern of Dengue incidence in Metropolitan Manila. It is also noteworthy that the study also identified relative humidity as an important meteorological factor along with rainfall and temperature that can influence this temporal pattern.

Application of a Navier-Stokes Solver to the Analysis of Multielement Airfoils and Wings Using Multizonal Grid Techniques

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jones, Kenneth M.; Biedron, Robert T.; Whitlock, Mark

1995-01-01

A computational study was performed to determine the predictive capability of a Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes code (CFL3D) for two-dimensional and three-dimensional multielement high-lift systems. Three configurations were analyzed: a three-element airfoil, a wing with a full span flap and a wing with a partial span flap. In order to accurately model these complex geometries, two different multizonal structured grid techniques were employed. For the airfoil and full span wing configurations, a chimera or overset grid technique was used. The results of the airfoil analysis illustrated that although the absolute values of lift were somewhat in error, the code was able to predict reasonably well the variation with Reynolds number and flap position. The full span flap analysis demonstrated good agreement with experimental surface pressure data over the wing and flap. Multiblock patched grids were used to model the partial span flap wing. A modification to an existing patched- grid algorithm was required to analyze the configuration as modeled. Comparisons with experimental data were very good, indicating the applicability of the patched-grid technique to analyses of these complex geometries.

Hidden Markov models of biological primary sequence information.

PubMed Central

Baldi, P; Chauvin, Y; Hunkapiller, T; McClure, M A

1994-01-01

Hidden Markov model (HMM) techniques are used to model families of biological sequences. A smooth and convergent algorithm is introduced to iteratively adapt the transition and emission parameters of the models from the examples in a given family. The HMM approach is applied to three protein families: globins, immunoglobulins, and kinases. In all cases, the models derived capture the important statistical characteristics of the family and can be used for a number of tasks, including multiple alignments, motif detection, and classification. For K sequences of average length N, this approach yields an effective multiple-alignment algorithm which requires O(KN2) operations, linear in the number of sequences. PMID:8302831

The Reynolds-stress tensor in diffusion flames; An experimental and theoretical investigation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schneider, F.; Janicka, J.

1990-07-01

The authors present measurements and predictions of Reynolds-stress components and mean velocities in a CH{sub 4}-air diffusion flame. A reference beam LDA technique is applied for measuring all Reynolds-stress components. A hologram with dichromated gelatine as recording medium generates strictly coherent reference beams. The theoretical part describes a Reynolds-stress model based on Favre-averaged quantities, paying special attention to modeling the pressure-shear correlation and the dissipation equation in flames. Finally, measurement/prediction comparisons are presented.

Laser power conversion system analysis, volume 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jones, W. S.; Morgan, L. L.; Forsyth, J. B.; Skratt, J. P.

1979-01-01

The orbit-to-orbit laser energy conversion system analysis established a mission model of satellites with various orbital parameters and average electrical power requirements ranging from 1 to 300 kW. The system analysis evaluated various conversion techniques, power system deployment parameters, power system electrical supplies and other critical supplies and other critical subsystems relative to various combinations of the mission model. The analysis show that the laser power system would not be competitive with current satellite power systems from weight, cost and development risk standpoints.

Comparison of conditional sampling and averaging techniques in a turbulent boundary layer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Subramanian, C. S.; Rajagopalan, S.; Antonia, R. A.; Chambers, A. J.

1982-10-01

A rake of cold wires was used in a slightly heated boundary layer to identify coherent temperature fronts. An X-wire/cold-wire arrangement was used simultaneously with the rake to provide measurements of the longitudinal and normal velocity fluctuations and temperature fluctuations. Conditional averages of these parameters and their products were obtained by application of conditional techniques (VITA, HOLE, BT, RA1, and RA3) based on the detection of temperature fronts using information obtained at only one point in space. It is found that none of the one-point detection techniques is in good quantitative agreement with the rake detection technique, the largest correspondence being 51%. Despite the relatively poor correspondence between the conditional techniques, these techniques, with the exception of HOLE, produce conditional averages that are in reasonable qualitative agreement with those deduced using the rake.

Averaging Principle for the Higher Order Nonlinear Schrödinger Equation with a Random Fast Oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Peng

2018-06-01

This work concerns the problem associated with averaging principle for a higher order nonlinear Schrödinger equation perturbed by a oscillating term arising as the solution of a stochastic reaction-diffusion equation evolving with respect to the fast time. This model can be translated into a multiscale stochastic partial differential equations. Stochastic averaging principle is a powerful tool for studying qualitative analysis of stochastic dynamical systems with different time-scales. To be more precise, under suitable conditions, we prove that there is a limit process in which the fast varying process is averaged out and the limit process which takes the form of the higher order nonlinear Schrödinger equation is an average with respect to the stationary measure of the fast varying process. Finally, by using the Khasminskii technique we can obtain the rate of strong convergence for the slow component towards the solution of the averaged equation, and as a consequence, the system can be reduced to a single higher order nonlinear Schrödinger equation with a modified coefficient.

Averaging Principle for the Higher Order Nonlinear Schrödinger Equation with a Random Fast Oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Peng

2018-04-01

This work concerns the problem associated with averaging principle for a higher order nonlinear Schrödinger equation perturbed by a oscillating term arising as the solution of a stochastic reaction-diffusion equation evolving with respect to the fast time. This model can be translated into a multiscale stochastic partial differential equations. Stochastic averaging principle is a powerful tool for studying qualitative analysis of stochastic dynamical systems with different time-scales. To be more precise, under suitable conditions, we prove that there is a limit process in which the fast varying process is averaged out and the limit process which takes the form of the higher order nonlinear Schrödinger equation is an average with respect to the stationary measure of the fast varying process. Finally, by using the Khasminskii technique we can obtain the rate of strong convergence for the slow component towards the solution of the averaged equation, and as a consequence, the system can be reduced to a single higher order nonlinear Schrödinger equation with a modified coefficient.

Optical pathlengths in dental caries lesions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mujat, Claudia; ten Bosch, Jaap J.; Dogariu, Aristide C.

2001-04-01

The average pathlength of light inside dental enamel and incipient lesions is measured and compared, in order to quantitatively confirm the prediction that incipient lesions have higher scattering coefficients that sound enamel. The technique used, called optical pathlength spectroscopy provides experimental access to the pathlength distribution of light inside highly scattering samples. This is desirable for complex biological materials, where current theoretical models are very difficult to apply. To minimize the effects of surface reflections the average pathlength is measured in wet sound enamel and white spots. We obtain values of 367 micrometers and 272 micrometers average pathlength for sound enamel and white spots respectively. We also investigate the differences between open and subsurface lesions, by measuring the change in the pathlength distribution of light as they go from dry to wet.

No Evidence of Suicide Increase Following Terrorist Attacks in the United States: An Interrupted Time-Series Analysis of September 11 and Oklahoma City

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pridemore, William Alex; Trahan, Adam; Chamlin, Mitchell B.

2009-01-01

There is substantial evidence of detrimental psychological sequelae following disasters, including terrorist attacks. The effect of these events on extreme responses such as suicide, however, is unclear. We tested competing hypotheses about such effects by employing autoregressive integrated moving average techniques to model the impact of…

ARM Best Estimate Data (ARMBE) Products for Climate Science for a Sustainable Energy Future (CSSEF)

DOE Data Explorer

Riihimaki, Laura; Gaustad, Krista; McFarlane, Sally

2014-06-12

This data set was created for the Climate Science for a Sustainable Energy Future (CSSEF) model testbed project and is an extension of the hourly average ARMBE dataset to other extended facility sites and to include uncertainty estimates. Uncertainty estimates were needed in order to use uncertainty quantification (UQ) techniques with the data.

Is cepstrum averaging applicable to circularly polarized electric-field data?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tunnell, T.

1990-04-01

In FY 1988 a cepstrum averaging technique was developed to eliminate the ground reflections from charged particle beam (CPB) electromagnetic pulse (EMP) data. The work was done for the Los Alamos National Laboratory Project DEWPOINT at SST-7. The technique averages the cepstra of horizontally and vertically polarized electric field data (i.e., linearly polarized electric field data). This cepstrum averaging technique was programmed into the FORTRAN codes CEP and CEPSIM. Steve Knox, the principal investigator for Project DEWPOINT, asked the authors to determine if the cepstrum averaging technique could be applied to circularly polarized electric field data. The answer is, Yes, but some modifications may be necessary. There are two aspects to this answer that we need to address, namely, the Yes and the modifications. First, regarding the Yes, the technique is applicable to elliptically polarized electric field data in general: circular polarization is a special case of elliptical polarization. Secondly, regarding the modifications, greater care may be required in computing the phase in the calculation of the complex logarithm. The calculation of the complex logarithm is the most critical step in cepstrum-based analysis. This memorandum documents these findings.

Variability in surface ECG morphology: signal or noise?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, J. M.; Rosenbaum, D. S.; Cohen, R. J.

1988-01-01

Using data collected from canine models of acute myocardial ischemia, we investigated two issues of major relevance to electrocardiographic signal averaging: ECG epoch alignment, and the spectral characteristics of the beat-to-beat variability in ECG morphology. With initial digitization rates of 1 kHz, an iterative a posteriori matched filtering alignment scheme, and linear interpolation, we demonstrated that there is sufficient information in the body surface ECG to merit alignment to a precision of 0.1 msecs. Applying this technique to align QRS complexes and atrial pacing artifacts independently, we demonstrated that the conduction delay from atrial stimulus to ventricular activation may be so variable as to preclude using atrial pacing as an alignment mechanism, and that this variability in conduction time be modulated at the frequency of respiration and at a much lower frequency (0.02-0.03Hz). Using a multidimensional spectral technique, we investigated the beat-to-beat variability in ECG morphology, demonstrating that the frequency spectrum of ECG morphological variation reveals a readily discernable modulation at the frequency of respiration. In addition, this technique detects a subtle beat-to-beat alternation in surface ECG morphology which accompanies transient coronary artery occlusion. We conclude that physiologically important information may be stored in the variability in the surface electrocardiogram, and that this information is lost by conventional averaging techniques.

Comparative assessment of bone pose estimation using Point Cluster Technique and OpenSim.

PubMed

Lathrop, Rebecca L; Chaudhari, Ajit M W; Siston, Robert A

2011-11-01

Estimating the position of the bones from optical motion capture data is a challenge associated with human movement analysis. Bone pose estimation techniques such as the Point Cluster Technique (PCT) and simulations of movement through software packages such as OpenSim are used to minimize soft tissue artifact and estimate skeletal position; however, using different methods for analysis may produce differing kinematic results which could lead to differences in clinical interpretation such as a misclassification of normal or pathological gait. This study evaluated the differences present in knee joint kinematics as a result of calculating joint angles using various techniques. We calculated knee joint kinematics from experimental gait data using the standard PCT, the least squares approach in OpenSim applied to experimental marker data, and the least squares approach in OpenSim applied to the results of the PCT algorithm. Maximum and resultant RMS differences in knee angles were calculated between all techniques. We observed differences in flexion/extension, varus/valgus, and internal/external rotation angles between all approaches. The largest differences were between the PCT results and all results calculated using OpenSim. The RMS differences averaged nearly 5° for flexion/extension angles with maximum differences exceeding 15°. Average RMS differences were relatively small (< 1.08°) between results calculated within OpenSim, suggesting that the choice of marker weighting is not critical to the results of the least squares inverse kinematics calculations. The largest difference between techniques appeared to be a constant offset between the PCT and all OpenSim results, which may be due to differences in the definition of anatomical reference frames, scaling of musculoskeletal models, and/or placement of virtual markers within OpenSim. Different methods for data analysis can produce largely different kinematic results, which could lead to the misclassification of normal or pathological gait. Improved techniques to allow non-uniform scaling of generic models to more accurately reflect subject-specific bone geometries and anatomical reference frames may reduce differences between bone pose estimation techniques and allow for comparison across gait analysis platforms.

Is Memory Search Governed by Universal Principles or Idiosyncratic Strategies?

PubMed Central

Healey, M. Karl; Kahana, Michael J.

2013-01-01

Laboratory paradigms have provided an empirical foundation for much of psychological science. Some have argued, however, that such paradigms are highly susceptible to idiosyncratic strategies and that rather than reflecting fundamental cognitive principles, many findings are artifacts of averaging across participants who employ different strategies. We develop a set of techniques to rigorously test the extent to which average data are distorted by such strategy differences and apply these techniques to free recall data from the Penn Electrophysiology of Encoding and Retrieval Study (PEERS). Recall initiation showed evidence of subgroups: the majority of participants initiate recall from the last item in the list, but one subgroup show elevated initiation probabilities for items 2–4 back from the end of the list and another showed elevated probabilities for the beginning of the list. By contrast, serial position curves and temporal and semantic clustering functions were remarkably consistent, with almost every participant exhibiting a recognizable version of the average function, suggesting that these functions reflect fundamental principles of the memory system. The approach taken here can serve as a model for evaluating the extent to which other laboratory paradigms are influenced by individual differences in strategy use. PMID:23957279

In Vivo Measurement of Glenohumeral Joint Contact Patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bey, Michael J.; Kline, Stephanie K.; Zauel, Roger; Kolowich, Patricia A.; Lock, Terrence R.

2009-12-01

The objectives of this study were to describe a technique for measuring in-vivo glenohumeral joint contact patterns during dynamic activities and to demonstrate application of this technique. The experimental technique calculated joint contact patterns by combining CT-based 3D bone models with joint motion data that were accurately measured from biplane x-ray images. Joint contact patterns were calculated for the repaired and contralateral shoulders of 20 patients who had undergone rotator cuff repair. Significant differences in joint contact patterns were detected due to abduction angle and shoulder condition (i.e., repaired versus contralateral). Abduction angle had a significant effect on the superior/inferior contact center position, with the average joint contact center of the repaired shoulder 12.1% higher on the glenoid than the contralateral shoulder. This technique provides clinically relevant information by calculating in-vivo joint contact patterns during dynamic conditions and overcomes many limitations associated with conventional techniques for quantifying joint mechanics.

THE ADAPTATION FOR GROUP CLASSROOM USE OF CLINICAL TECHNIQUES FOR TEACHING BRAIN-INJURED CHILDREN.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

NOVACK, HARRY S.

THIS STUDY SOUGHT TO DEVELOP A PUBLIC SCHOOL PROGRAM FOR BRAIN-INJURED CHILDREN OF AVERAGE OR LOW AVERAGE INTELLECTUAL POTENTIAL. THE OBJECTIVES WERE--(1) TO COLLECT CLINICAL TUTORING TECHNIQUES BEING USED, (2) TO CLASSIFY CLINICAL TUTORIAL METHODS IN A FRAMEWORK USEFUL FOR DEVELOPING TECHNIQUES FOR GROUP TEACHING, (3) TO ADOPT CLINICAL TUTORIAL…

Emergency Department Visit Forecasting and Dynamic Nursing Staff Allocation Using Machine Learning Techniques With Readily Available Open-Source Software.

PubMed

Zlotnik, Alexander; Gallardo-Antolín, Ascensión; Cuchí Alfaro, Miguel; Pérez Pérez, María Carmen; Montero Martínez, Juan Manuel

2015-08-01

Although emergency department visit forecasting can be of use for nurse staff planning, previous research has focused on models that lacked sufficient resolution and realistic error metrics for these predictions to be applied in practice. Using data from a 1100-bed specialized care hospital with 553,000 patients assigned to its healthcare area, forecasts with different prediction horizons, from 2 to 24 weeks ahead, with an 8-hour granularity, using support vector regression, M5P, and stratified average time-series models were generated with an open-source software package. As overstaffing and understaffing errors have different implications, error metrics and potential personnel monetary savings were calculated with a custom validation scheme, which simulated subsequent generation of predictions during a 4-year period. Results were then compared with a generalized estimating equation regression. Support vector regression and M5P models were found to be superior to the stratified average model with a 95% confidence interval. Our findings suggest that medium and severe understaffing situations could be reduced in more than an order of magnitude and average yearly savings of up to €683,500 could be achieved if dynamic nursing staff allocation was performed with support vector regression instead of the static staffing levels currently in use.

Analysis of the multigroup model for muon tomography based threat detection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perry, J. O.; Bacon, J. D.; Borozdin, K. N.; Fabritius, J. M.; Morris, C. L.

2014-02-01

We compare different algorithms for detecting a 5 cm tungsten cube using cosmic ray muon technology. In each case, a simple tomographic technique was used for position reconstruction, but the scattering angles were used differently to obtain a density signal. Receiver operating characteristic curves were used to compare images made using average angle squared, median angle squared, average of the squared angle, and a multi-energy group fit of the angular distributions for scenes with and without a 5 cm tungsten cube. The receiver operating characteristic curves show that the multi-energy group treatment of the scattering angle distributions is the superior method for image reconstruction.

Spatially explicit modelling of forest structure and function using airborne lidar and hyperspectral remote sensing data combined with micrometeorological measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, Valerie Anne

This research models canopy-scale photosynthesis at the Groundhog River Flux Site through the integration of high-resolution airborne remote sensing data and micrometeorological measurements collected from a flux tower. Light detection and ranging (lidar) data are analysed to derive models of tree structure, including: canopy height, basal area, crown closure, and average aboveground biomass. Lidar and hyperspectral remote sensing data are used to model canopy chlorophyll (Chl) and carotenoid concentrations (known to be good indicators of photosynthesis). The integration of lidar and hyperspectral data is applied to derive spatially explicit models of the fraction of photosynthetically active radiation (fPAR) absorbed by the canopy as well as a species classification for the site. These products are integrated with flux tower meteorological measurements (i.e., air temperature and global solar radiation) collected on a continuous basis over 2004 to apply the C-Fix model of carbon exchange to the site. Results demonstrate that high resolution lidar and lidar-hyperspectral integration techniques perform well in the boreal mixedwood environment. Lidar models are well correlated with forest structure, despite the complexities introduced in the mixedwood case (e.g., r2=0.84, 0.89, 0.60, and 0.91, for mean dominant height, basal area, crown closure, and average aboveground biomass). Strong relationships are also shown for canopy scale chlorophyll/carotenoid concentration analysis using integrated lidar-hyperspectral techniques (e.g., r2=0.84, 0.84, and 0.82 for Chl(a), Chl(a+b), and Chl(b)). Examination of the spatially explicit models of fPAR reveal distinct spatial patterns which become increasingly apparent throughout the season due to the variation in species groupings (and canopy chlorophyll concentration) within the 1 km radius surrounding the flux tower. Comparison of results from the modified local-scale version of the C-Fix model to tower gross ecosystem productivity (GEP) demonstrate a good correlation to flux tower measured GEP (r2=0.70 for 10 day averages), with the largest deviations occurring in June-July. This research has direct benefits for forest inventory mapping and management practices; mapping of canopy physiology and biochemical constituents related to forest health; and scaling and direct comparison to large resolution satellite models to help bridge the gap between the local-scale measurements at flux towers and predictions derived from continental-scale carbon models.

Melt Flow Control in the Directional Solidification of Binary Alloys

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zabaras, Nicholas

2003-01-01

Our main project objectives are to develop computational techniques based on inverse problem theory that can be used to design directional solidification processes that lead to desired temperature gradient and growth conditions at the freezing front at various levels of gravity. It is known that control of these conditions plays a significant role in the selection of the form and scale of the obtained solidification microstructures. Emphasis is given on the control of the effects of various melt flow mechanisms on the local to the solidification front conditions. The thermal boundary conditions (furnace design) as well as the magnitude and direction of an externally applied magnetic field are the main design variables. We will highlight computational design models for sharp front solidification models and briefly discuss work in progress toward the development of design techniques for multi-phase volume-averaging based solidification models.

Fault zone structure determined through the analysis of earthquake arrival times

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Michelini, A.

1991-10-01

This thesis develops and applies a technique for the simultaneous determination of P and S wave velocity models and hypocenters from a set of arrival times. The velocity models are parameterized in terms of cubic B-splines basis functions which permit the retrieval of smooth models that can be used directly for generation of synthetic seismograms using the ray method. In addition, this type of smoothing limits the rise of instabilities related to the poor resolving power of the data. V{sub P}/V{sub S} ratios calculated from P and S models display generally instabilities related to the different ray-coverages of compressional andmore » shear waves. However, V{sub P}/V{sub S} ratios are important for correct identification of rock types and this study introduces a new methodology based on adding some coupling (i.e., proportionality) between P and S models which stabilizes the V{sub P}/V{sub S} models around some average preset value determined from the data. Tests of the technique with synthetic data show that this additional coupling regularizes effectively the resulting models.« less

Fault zone structure determined through the analysis of earthquake arrival times

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Michelini, Alberto

1991-10-01

This thesis develops and applies a technique for the simultaneous determination of P and S wave velocity models and hypocenters from a set of arrival times. The velocity models are parameterized in terms of cubic B-splines basis functions which permit the retrieval of smooth models that can be used directly for generation of synthetic seismograms using the ray method. In addition, this type of smoothing limits the rise of instabilities related to the poor resolving power of the data. V P/V S ratios calculated from P and S models display generally instabilities related to the different ray-coverages of compressional andmore » shear waves. However, V P/V S ratios are important for correct identification of rock types and this study introduces a new methodology based on adding some coupling (i.e., proportionality) between P and S models which stabilizes the V P/V S models around some average preset value determined from the data. Tests of the technique with synthetic data show that this additional coupling regularizes effectively the resulting models.« less

Temporal patterns and a disease forecasting model of dengue hemorrhagic fever in Jakarta based on 10 years of surveillance data.

PubMed

Sitepu, Monika S; Kaewkungwal, Jaranit; Luplerdlop, Nathanej; Soonthornworasiri, Ngamphol; Silawan, Tassanee; Poungsombat, Supawadee; Lawpoolsri, Saranath

2013-03-01

This study aimed to describe the temporal patterns of dengue transmission in Jakarta from 2001 to 2010, using data from the national surveillance system. The Box-Jenkins forecasting technique was used to develop a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model for the study period and subsequently applied to forecast DHF incidence in 2011 in Jakarta Utara, Jakarta Pusat, Jakarta Barat, and the municipalities of Jakarta Province. Dengue incidence in 2011, based on the forecasting model was predicted to increase from the previous year.

Progressive matrix cracking in off-axis plies of a general symmetric laminate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thomas, David J.; Wetherhold, Robert C.

1993-01-01

A generalized shear-lag model is derived to determine the average through-the-thickness stress state present in a layer undergoing transverse matrix cracking, by extending the method of Lee and Daniels (1991) to a general symmetric multilayered system. The model is capable of considering cracking in layers of arbitrary orientation, states of general in-plane applied loading, and laminates with a general symmetric stacking sequence. The model is included in a computer program designed for probabilistic laminate analysis, and the results are compared to those determined with the ply drop-off technique.

Exploring L1 model space in search of conductivity bounds for the MT problem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wheelock, B. D.; Parker, R. L.

2013-12-01

Geophysical inverse problems of the type encountered in electromagnetic techniques are highly non-unique. As a result, any single inverted model, though feasible, is at best inconclusive and at worst misleading. In this paper, we use modified inversion methods to establish bounds on electrical conductivity within a model of the earth. Our method consists of two steps, each making use of the 1-norm in model regularization. Both 1-norm minimization problems are framed without approximation as non-negative least-squares (NNLS) problems. First, we must identify a parsimonious set of regions within the model for which upper and lower bounds on average conductivity will be sought. This is accomplished by minimizing the 1-norm of spatial variation, which produces a model with a limited number of homogeneous regions; in fact, the number of homogeneous regions will never be greater than the number of data, regardless of the number of free parameters supplied. The second step establishes bounds for each of these regions with pairs of inversions. The new suite of inversions also uses a 1-norm penalty, but applied to the conductivity values themselves, rather than the spatial variation thereof. In the bounding step we use the 1-norm of our model parameters because it is proportional to average conductivity. For a lower bound on average conductivity, the 1-norm within a bounding region is minimized. For an upper bound on average conductivity, the 1-norm everywhere outside a bounding region is minimized. The latter minimization has the effect of concentrating conductance into the bounding region. Taken together, these bounds are a measure of the uncertainty in the associated region of our model. Starting with a blocky inverse solution is key in the selection of the bounding regions. Of course, there is a tradeoff between resolution and uncertainty: an increase in resolution (smaller bounding regions), results in greater uncertainty (wider bounds). Minimization of the 1-norm of spatial variation delivers the fewest possible regions defined by a mean conductivity, the quantity we wish to bound. Thus, these regions present a natural set for which the most narrow and discriminating bounds can be found. For illustration, we apply these techniques to synthetic magnetotelluric (MT) data sets resulting from one-dimensional (1D) earth models. In each case we find that with realistic data coverage, any single inverted model can often stray from the truth, while the computed bounds on an encompassing region contain both the inverted and the true conductivities, indicating that our measure of model uncertainty is robust. Such estimates of uncertainty for conductivity can then be translated to bounds on important petrological parameters such as mineralogy, porosity, saturation, and fluid type.

Improving consensus structure by eliminating averaging artifacts

PubMed Central

KC, Dukka B

2009-01-01

Background Common structural biology methods (i.e., NMR and molecular dynamics) often produce ensembles of molecular structures. Consequently, averaging of 3D coordinates of molecular structures (proteins and RNA) is a frequent approach to obtain a consensus structure that is representative of the ensemble. However, when the structures are averaged, artifacts can result in unrealistic local geometries, including unphysical bond lengths and angles. Results Herein, we describe a method to derive representative structures while limiting the number of artifacts. Our approach is based on a Monte Carlo simulation technique that drives a starting structure (an extended or a 'close-by' structure) towards the 'averaged structure' using a harmonic pseudo energy function. To assess the performance of the algorithm, we applied our approach to Cα models of 1364 proteins generated by the TASSER structure prediction algorithm. The average RMSD of the refined model from the native structure for the set becomes worse by a mere 0.08 Å compared to the average RMSD of the averaged structures from the native structure (3.28 Å for refined structures and 3.36 A for the averaged structures). However, the percentage of atoms involved in clashes is greatly reduced (from 63% to 1%); in fact, the majority of the refined proteins had zero clashes. Moreover, a small number (38) of refined structures resulted in lower RMSD to the native protein versus the averaged structure. Finally, compared to PULCHRA [1], our approach produces representative structure of similar RMSD quality, but with much fewer clashes. Conclusion The benchmarking results demonstrate that our approach for removing averaging artifacts can be very beneficial for the structural biology community. Furthermore, the same approach can be applied to almost any problem where averaging of 3D coordinates is performed. Namely, structure averaging is also commonly performed in RNA secondary prediction [2], which could also benefit from our approach. PMID:19267905

Prediction of rain effects on earth-space communication links operating in the 10 to 35 GHz frequency range

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stutzman, Warren L.

1989-01-01

This paper reviews the effects of precipitation on earth-space communication links operating the 10 to 35 GHz frequency range. Emphasis is on the quantitative prediction of rain attenuation and depolarization. Discussions center on the models developed at Virginia Tech. Comments on other models are included as well as literature references to key works. Also included is the system level modeling for dual polarized communication systems with techniques for calculating antenna and propagation medium effects. Simple models for the calculation of average annual attenuation and cross-polarization discrimination (XPD) are presented. Calculation of worst month statistics are also presented.

Parameterisation of multi-scale continuum perfusion models from discrete vascular networks.

PubMed

Hyde, Eoin R; Michler, Christian; Lee, Jack; Cookson, Andrew N; Chabiniok, Radek; Nordsletten, David A; Smith, Nicolas P

2013-05-01

Experimental data and advanced imaging techniques are increasingly enabling the extraction of detailed vascular anatomy from biological tissues. Incorporation of anatomical data within perfusion models is non-trivial, due to heterogeneous vessel density and disparate radii scales. Furthermore, previous idealised networks have assumed a spatially repeating motif or periodic canonical cell, thereby allowing for a flow solution via homogenisation. However, such periodicity is not observed throughout anatomical networks. In this study, we apply various spatial averaging methods to discrete vascular geometries in order to parameterise a continuum model of perfusion. Specifically, a multi-compartment Darcy model was used to provide vascular scale separation for the fluid flow. Permeability tensor fields were derived from both synthetic and anatomically realistic networks using (1) porosity-scaled isotropic, (2) Huyghe and Van Campen, and (3) projected-PCA methods. The Darcy pressure fields were compared via a root-mean-square error metric to an averaged Poiseuille pressure solution over the same domain. The method of Huyghe and Van Campen performed better than the other two methods in all simulations, even for relatively coarse networks. Furthermore, inter-compartment volumetric flux fields, determined using the spatially averaged discrete flux per unit pressure difference, were shown to be accurate across a range of pressure boundary conditions. This work justifies the application of continuum flow models to characterise perfusion resulting from flow in an underlying vascular network.

Accuracy and convergence of coupled finite-volume/Monte Carlo codes for plasma edge simulations of nuclear fusion reactors

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ghoos, K., E-mail: kristel.ghoos@kuleuven.be; Dekeyser, W.; Samaey, G.

2016-10-01

The plasma and neutral transport in the plasma edge of a nuclear fusion reactor is usually simulated using coupled finite volume (FV)/Monte Carlo (MC) codes. However, under conditions of future reactors like ITER and DEMO, convergence issues become apparent. This paper examines the convergence behaviour and the numerical error contributions with a simplified FV/MC model for three coupling techniques: Correlated Sampling, Random Noise and Robbins Monro. Also, practical procedures to estimate the errors in complex codes are proposed. Moreover, first results with more complex models show that an order of magnitude speedup can be achieved without any loss in accuracymore » by making use of averaging in the Random Noise coupling technique.« less

One way Doppler extractor. Volume 1: Vernier technique

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Blasco, R. W.; Klein, S.; Nossen, E. J.; Starner, E. R.; Yanosov, J. A.

1974-01-01

A feasibility analysis, trade-offs, and implementation for a One Way Doppler Extraction system are discussed. A Doppler error analysis shows that quantization error is a primary source of Doppler measurement error. Several competing extraction techniques are compared and a Vernier technique is developed which obtains high Doppler resolution with low speed logic. Parameter trade-offs and sensitivities for the Vernier technique are analyzed, leading to a hardware design configuration. A detailed design, operation, and performance evaluation of the resulting breadboard model is presented which verifies the theoretical performance predictions. Performance tests have verified that the breadboard is capable of extracting Doppler, on an S-band signal, to an accuracy of less than 0.02 Hertz for a one second averaging period. This corresponds to a range rate error of no more than 3 millimeters per second.

Computational fluid dynamics analysis of cyclist aerodynamics: performance of different turbulence-modelling and boundary-layer modelling approaches.

PubMed

Defraeye, Thijs; Blocken, Bert; Koninckx, Erwin; Hespel, Peter; Carmeliet, Jan

2010-08-26

This study aims at assessing the accuracy of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) for applications in sports aerodynamics, for example for drag predictions of swimmers, cyclists or skiers, by evaluating the applied numerical modelling techniques by means of detailed validation experiments. In this study, a wind-tunnel experiment on a scale model of a cyclist (scale 1:2) is presented. Apart from three-component forces and moments, also high-resolution surface pressure measurements on the scale model's surface, i.e. at 115 locations, are performed to provide detailed information on the flow field. These data are used to compare the performance of different turbulence-modelling techniques, such as steady Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS), with several k-epsilon and k-omega turbulence models, and unsteady large-eddy simulation (LES), and also boundary-layer modelling techniques, namely wall functions and low-Reynolds number modelling (LRNM). The commercial CFD code Fluent 6.3 is used for the simulations. The RANS shear-stress transport (SST) k-omega model shows the best overall performance, followed by the more computationally expensive LES. Furthermore, LRNM is clearly preferred over wall functions to model the boundary layer. This study showed that there are more accurate alternatives for evaluating flow around bluff bodies with CFD than the standard k-epsilon model combined with wall functions, which is often used in CFD studies in sports. 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modelling vehicle colour and pattern for multiple deployment environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liggins, Eric; Moorhead, Ian R.; Pearce, Daniel A.; Baker, Christopher J.; Serle, William P.

2016-10-01

Military land platforms are often deployed around the world in very different climate zones. Procuring vehicles in a large range of camouflage patterns and colour schemes is expensive and may limit the environments in which they can be effectively used. As such this paper reports a modelling approach for use in the optimisation and selection of a colour palette, to support operations in diverse environments and terrains. Three different techniques were considered based upon the differences between vehicle and background in L*a*b* colour space, to predict the optimum (initially single) colour to reduce the vehicle signature in the visible band. Calibrated digital imagery was used as backgrounds and a number of scenes were sampled. The three approaches used, and reported here are a) background averaging behind the vehicle b) background averaging in the area surrounding the vehicle and c) use of the spatial extension to CIE L*a*b*; S-CIELAB (Zhang and Wandell, Society for Information Display Symposium Technical Digest, vol. 27, pp. 731-734, 1996). Results are compared with natural scene colour statistics. The models used showed good agreement in the colour predictions for individual and multiple terrains or climate zones. A further development of the technique examines the effect of different patterns and colour combinations on the S-CIELAB spatial colour difference metric, when scaled for appropriate viewing ranges.

Comparative Performance Evaluation of Rainfall-runoff Models, Six of Black-box Type and One of Conceptual Type, From The Galway Flow Forecasting System (gffs) Package, Applied On Two Irish Catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goswami, M.; O'Connor, K. M.; Shamseldin, A. Y.

The "Galway Real-Time River Flow Forecasting System" (GFFS) is a software pack- age developed at the Department of Engineering Hydrology, of the National University of Ireland, Galway, Ireland. It is based on a selection of lumped black-box and con- ceptual rainfall-runoff models, all developed in Galway, consisting primarily of both the non-parametric (NP) and parametric (P) forms of two black-box-type rainfall- runoff models, namely, the Simple Linear Model (SLM-NP and SLM-P) and the seasonally-based Linear Perturbation Model (LPM-NP and LPM-P), together with the non-parametric wetness-index-based Linearly Varying Gain Factor Model (LVGFM), the black-box Artificial Neural Network (ANN) Model, and the conceptual Soil Mois- ture Accounting and Routing (SMAR) Model. Comprised of the above suite of mod- els, the system enables the user to calibrate each model individually, initially without updating, and it is capable also of producing combined (i.e. consensus) forecasts us- ing the Simple Average Method (SAM), the Weighted Average Method (WAM), or the Artificial Neural Network Method (NNM). The updating of each model output is achieved using one of four different techniques, namely, simple Auto-Regressive (AR) updating, Linear Transfer Function (LTF) updating, Artificial Neural Network updating (NNU), and updating by the Non-linear Auto-Regressive Exogenous-input method (NARXM). The models exhibit a considerable range of variation in degree of complexity of structure, with corresponding degrees of complication in objective func- tion evaluation. Operating in continuous river-flow simulation and updating modes, these models and techniques have been applied to two Irish catchments, namely, the Fergus and the Brosna. A number of performance evaluation criteria have been used to comparatively assess the model discharge forecast efficiency.

Spectral-Timing Analysis of Kilohetrz Quasi-Periodic Osciallations in Neutron Star Low-Mass X-ray Binaries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cackett, Edward; Troyer, Jon; Peille, Philippe; Barret, Didier

2018-01-01

Kilohertz quasi-periodic oscillations or kHz QPOs are intensity variations that occur in the X-ray band observed in neutron star low-mass X-ray binary (LMXB) systems. In such systems, matter is transferred from a secondary low-mass star to a neutron star via the process of accretion. kHz QPOs occur on the timescale of the inner accretion flow and may carry signatures of the physics of strong gravity (c2 ~ GM/R) and possibly clues to constraining the neutron star equation of state (EOS). Both the timing behavior of kHz QPOs and the time-averaged spectra of these systems have been studied extensively. No model derived from these techniques has been able to illuminate the origin of kHz QPOs. Spectral-timing is an analysis technique that can be used to derive information about the nature of physical processes occurring within the accretion flow on the timescale of the kHz QPO. To date, kHz QPOs of (4) neutron star LMXB systems have been studied with spectral-timing techniques. We present a comprehensive study of spectral-timing products of kHz QPOs from systems where data is available in the RXTE archive to demonstrate the promise of this technique to gain insights regarding the origin of kHz QPOs. Using data averaged over the entire RXTE archive, we show correlated time-lags as a function of QPO frequency and energy, as well as energy-dependent covariance spectra for the various LMXB systems where spectral-timing analysis is possible. We find similar trends in all average spectral-timing products for the objects studied. This suggests a common origin of kHz QPOs.

Improved Statistical Fault Detection Technique and Application to Biological Phenomena Modeled by S-Systems.

PubMed

Mansouri, Majdi; Nounou, Mohamed N; Nounou, Hazem N

2017-09-01

In our previous work, we have demonstrated the effectiveness of the linear multiscale principal component analysis (PCA)-based moving window (MW)-generalized likelihood ratio test (GLRT) technique over the classical PCA and multiscale principal component analysis (MSPCA)-based GLRT methods. The developed fault detection algorithm provided optimal properties by maximizing the detection probability for a particular false alarm rate (FAR) with different values of windows, and however, most real systems are nonlinear, which make the linear PCA method not able to tackle the issue of non-linearity to a great extent. Thus, in this paper, first, we apply a nonlinear PCA to obtain an accurate principal component of a set of data and handle a wide range of nonlinearities using the kernel principal component analysis (KPCA) model. The KPCA is among the most popular nonlinear statistical methods. Second, we extend the MW-GLRT technique to one that utilizes exponential weights to residuals in the moving window (instead of equal weightage) as it might be able to further improve fault detection performance by reducing the FAR using exponentially weighed moving average (EWMA). The developed detection method, which is called EWMA-GLRT, provides improved properties, such as smaller missed detection and FARs and smaller average run length. The idea behind the developed EWMA-GLRT is to compute a new GLRT statistic that integrates current and previous data information in a decreasing exponential fashion giving more weight to the more recent data. This provides a more accurate estimation of the GLRT statistic and provides a stronger memory that will enable better decision making with respect to fault detection. Therefore, in this paper, a KPCA-based EWMA-GLRT method is developed and utilized in practice to improve fault detection in biological phenomena modeled by S-systems and to enhance monitoring process mean. The idea behind a KPCA-based EWMA-GLRT fault detection algorithm is to combine the advantages brought forward by the proposed EWMA-GLRT fault detection chart with the KPCA model. Thus, it is used to enhance fault detection of the Cad System in E. coli model through monitoring some of the key variables involved in this model such as enzymes, transport proteins, regulatory proteins, lysine, and cadaverine. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed KPCA-based EWMA-GLRT method over Q , GLRT, EWMA, Shewhart, and moving window-GLRT methods. The detection performance is assessed and evaluated in terms of FAR, missed detection rates, and average run length (ARL 1 ) values.

Comparison of machine learning techniques to predict all-cause mortality using fitness data: the Henry ford exercIse testing (FIT) project.

PubMed

Sakr, Sherif; Elshawi, Radwa; Ahmed, Amjad M; Qureshi, Waqas T; Brawner, Clinton A; Keteyian, Steven J; Blaha, Michael J; Al-Mallah, Mouaz H

2017-12-19

Prior studies have demonstrated that cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) is a strong marker of cardiovascular health. Machine learning (ML) can enhance the prediction of outcomes through classification techniques that classify the data into predetermined categories. The aim of this study is to present an evaluation and comparison of how machine learning techniques can be applied on medical records of cardiorespiratory fitness and how the various techniques differ in terms of capabilities of predicting medical outcomes (e.g. mortality). We use data of 34,212 patients free of known coronary artery disease or heart failure who underwent clinician-referred exercise treadmill stress testing at Henry Ford Health Systems Between 1991 and 2009 and had a complete 10-year follow-up. Seven machine learning classification techniques were evaluated: Decision Tree (DT), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), Naïve Bayesian Classifier (BC), Bayesian Network (BN), K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN) and Random Forest (RF). In order to handle the imbalanced dataset used, the Synthetic Minority Over-Sampling Technique (SMOTE) is used. Two set of experiments have been conducted with and without the SMOTE sampling technique. On average over different evaluation metrics, SVM Classifier has shown the lowest performance while other models like BN, BC and DT performed better. The RF classifier has shown the best performance (AUC = 0.97) among all models trained using the SMOTE sampling. The results show that various ML techniques can significantly vary in terms of its performance for the different evaluation metrics. It is also not necessarily that the more complex the ML model, the more prediction accuracy can be achieved. The prediction performance of all models trained with SMOTE is much better than the performance of models trained without SMOTE. The study shows the potential of machine learning methods for predicting all-cause mortality using cardiorespiratory fitness data.

Center for Advanced Propulsion Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

1993-02-01

breakup model for two chamber pressures. 7.5.4 Exciplex images for a single main injection. Images are 126 ensemble averaged for 8 individual images. Times...to obtain data using an electronic fuel injector (UCORS). Exciplex fluorescence and photographic imaging were used to study liquid and vapor...later paper, (Bower and Foster, 1993) in the same combustion bomb, the authors applied Exciplex fluorescence techniques to visualize fuel liquid and fuel

Comparative Analysis of Academic Grades in Compulsory Secondary Education in Spain Using Statistical Techniques

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Veas, Alejandro; Gilar, Raquel; Miñano, Pablo; Castejón, Juan Luis

2017-01-01

The present study, based on the construct comparability approach, performs a comparative analysis of general points average for seven courses, using exploratory factor analysis (EFA) and the Partial Credit model (PCM) with a sample of 1398 student subjects (M = 12.5, SD = 0.67) from 8 schools in the province of Alicante (Spain). EFA confirmed a…

Detection of stress factors in crop and weed species using hyperspectral remote sensing reflectance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henry, William Brien

The primary objective of this work was to determine if stress factors such as moisture stress or herbicide injury stress limit the ability to distinguish between weeds and crops using remotely sensed data. Additional objectives included using hyperspectral reflectance data to measure moisture content within a species, and to measure crop injury in response to drift rates of non-selective herbicides. Moisture stress did not reduce the ability to discriminate between species. Regardless of analysis technique, the trend was that as moisture stress increased, so too did the ability to distinguish between species. Signature amplitudes (SA) of the top 5 bands, discrete wavelet transforms (DWT), and multiple indices were promising analysis techniques. Discriminant models created from one year's data set and validated on additional data sets provided, on average, approximately 80% accurate classification among weeds and crop. This suggests that these models are relatively robust and could potentially be used across environmental conditions in field scenarios. Distinguishing between leaves grown at high-moisture stress and no-stress was met with limited success, primarily because there was substantial variation among samples within the treatments. Leaf water potential (LWP) was measured, and these were classified into three categories using indices. Classification accuracies were as high as 68%. The 10 bands most highly correlated to LWP were selected; however, there were no obvious trends or patterns in these top 10 bands with respect to time, species or moisture level, suggesting that LWP is an elusive parameter to quantify spectrally. In order to address herbicide injury stress and its impact on species discrimination, discriminant models were created from combinations of multiple indices. The model created from the second experimental run's data set and validated on the first experimental run's data provided an average of 97% correct classification of soybean and an overall average classification accuracy of 65% for all species. This suggests that these models are relatively robust and could potentially be used across a wide range of herbicide applications in field scenarios. From the pooled data set, a single discriminant model was created with multiple indices that discriminated soybean from weeds 88%, on average, regardless of herbicide, rate or species. Several analysis techniques including multiple indices, signature amplitude with spectral bands as features, and wavelet analysis were employed to distinguish between herbicide-treated and nontreated plants. Classification accuracy using signature amplitude (SA) analysis of paraquat injury on soybean was better than 75% for both 1/2 and 1/8X rates at 1, 4, and 7 DAA. Classification accuracy of paraquat injury on corn was better than 72% for the 1/2X rate at 1, 4, and 7 DAA. These data suggest that hyperspectral reflectance may be used to distinguish between healthy plants and injured plants to which herbicides have been applied; however, the classification accuracies remained at 75% or higher only when the higher rates of herbicide were applied. (Abstract shortened by UMI.)

Uncertainty estimates of a GRACE inversion modelling technique over Greenland using a simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonin, Jennifer; Chambers, Don

2013-07-01

The low spatial resolution of GRACE causes leakage, where signals in one location spread out into nearby regions. Because of this leakage, using simple techniques such as basin averages may result in an incorrect estimate of the true mass change in a region. A fairly simple least squares inversion technique can be used to more specifically localize mass changes into a pre-determined set of basins of uniform internal mass distribution. However, the accuracy of these higher resolution basin mass amplitudes has not been determined, nor is it known how the distribution of the chosen basins affects the results. We use a simple `truth' model over Greenland as an example case, to estimate the uncertainties of this inversion method and expose those design parameters which may result in an incorrect high-resolution mass distribution. We determine that an appropriate level of smoothing (300-400 km) and process noise (0.30 cm2 of water) gets the best results. The trends of the Greenland internal basins and Iceland can be reasonably estimated with this method, with average systematic errors of 3.5 cm yr-1 per basin. The largest mass losses found from GRACE RL04 occur in the coastal northwest (-19.9 and -33.0 cm yr-1) and southeast (-24.2 and -27.9 cm yr-1), with small mass gains (+1.4 to +7.7 cm yr-1) found across the northern interior. Acceleration of mass change is measurable at the 95 per cent confidence level in four northwestern basins, but not elsewhere in Greenland. Due to an insufficiently detailed distribution of basins across internal Canada, the trend estimates of Baffin and Ellesmere Islands are expected to be incorrect due to systematic errors caused by the inversion technique.

DSPI technique for nanometer vibration mode measurement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yue, Kaiduan; Jia, Shuhai; Tan, Yushan

2000-05-01

A time-average DSPI method for nanometer vibration mode measurement is presented in this paper. The phase continuous scan technique is combined with the Bessel fringe-shifting technique to quantitatively analyze the vibration mode by time-average DSPI is used in measurement system. Through the phase continuous scan, the background and speckle items are completely eliminated, which improves the fringe quality and enhances the signal-to-noise ratio of interferogram. There is no need to calibrate the optical phase-shifter exactly in this method. The anti-disturbance capability of this method is higher than that of the phase-stepping technique, so it is robust and easy to be used. In the vibration measurement system, the speckle average technology is used, so the high quality measuring results are obtained.

A New Data Representation Based on Training Data Characteristics to Extract Drug Name Entity in Medical Text

PubMed Central

Basaruddin, T.

2016-01-01

One essential task in information extraction from the medical corpus is drug name recognition. Compared with text sources come from other domains, the medical text mining poses more challenges, for example, more unstructured text, the fast growing of new terms addition, a wide range of name variation for the same drug, the lack of labeled dataset sources and external knowledge, and the multiple token representations for a single drug name. Although many approaches have been proposed to overwhelm the task, some problems remained with poor F-score performance (less than 0.75). This paper presents a new treatment in data representation techniques to overcome some of those challenges. We propose three data representation techniques based on the characteristics of word distribution and word similarities as a result of word embedding training. The first technique is evaluated with the standard NN model, that is, MLP. The second technique involves two deep network classifiers, that is, DBN and SAE. The third technique represents the sentence as a sequence that is evaluated with a recurrent NN model, that is, LSTM. In extracting the drug name entities, the third technique gives the best F-score performance compared to the state of the art, with its average F-score being 0.8645. PMID:27843447

Airborne laser scanning for forest health status assessment and radiative transfer modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Novotny, Jan; Zemek, Frantisek; Pikl, Miroslav; Janoutova, Ruzena

2013-04-01

Structural parameters of forest stands/ecosystems are an important complementary source of information to spectral signatures obtained from airborne imaging spectroscopy when quantitative assessment of forest stands are in the focus, such as estimation of forest biomass, biochemical properties (e.g. chlorophyll /water content), etc. The parameterization of radiative transfer (RT) models used in latter case requires three-dimensional spatial distribution of green foliage and woody biomass. Airborne LiDAR data acquired over forest sites bears these kinds of 3D information. The main objective of the study was to compare the results from several approaches to interpolation of digital elevation model (DEM) and digital surface model (DSM). We worked with airborne LiDAR data with different density (TopEye Mk II 1,064nm instrument, 1-5 points/m2) acquired over the Norway spruce forests situated in the Beskydy Mountains, the Czech Republic. Three different interpolation algorithms with increasing complexity were tested: i/Nearest neighbour approach implemented in the BCAL software package (Idaho Univ.); ii/Averaging and linear interpolation techniques used in the OPALS software (Vienna Univ. of Technology); iii/Active contour technique implemented in the TreeVis software (Univ. of Freiburg). We defined two spatial resolutions for the resulting coupled raster DEMs and DSMs outputs: 0.4 m and 1 m, calculated by each algorithm. The grids correspond to the same spatial resolutions of hyperspectral imagery data for which the DEMs were used in a/geometrical correction and b/building a complex tree models for radiative transfer modelling. We applied two types of analyses when comparing between results from the different interpolations/raster resolution: 1/calculated DEM or DSM between themselves; 2/comparison with field data: DEM with measurements from referential GPS, DSM - field tree alometric measurements, where tree height was calculated as DSM-DEM. The results of the analyses show that: 1/averaging techniques tend to underestimate the tree height and the generated surface does not follow the first LiDAR echoes both for 1 m and 0.4 m pixel size; 2/we did not find any significant difference between tree heights calculated by nearest neighbour algorithm and the active contour technique for 1 m pixel output but the difference increased with finer resolution (0.4 m); 3/the accuracy of the DEMs calculated by tested algorithms is similar.

Macrocell path loss prediction using artificial intelligence techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Usman, Abraham U.; Okereke, Okpo U.; Omizegba, Elijah E.

2014-04-01

The prediction of propagation loss is a practical non-linear function approximation problem which linear regression or auto-regression models are limited in their ability to handle. However, some computational Intelligence techniques such as artificial neural networks (ANNs) and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems (ANFISs) have been shown to have great ability to handle non-linear function approximation and prediction problems. In this study, the multiple layer perceptron neural network (MLP-NN), radial basis function neural network (RBF-NN) and an ANFIS network were trained using actual signal strength measurement taken at certain suburban areas of Bauchi metropolis, Nigeria. The trained networks were then used to predict propagation losses at the stated areas under differing conditions. The predictions were compared with the prediction accuracy of the popular Hata model. It was observed that ANFIS model gave a better fit in all cases having higher R2 values in each case and on average is more robust than MLP and RBF models as it generalises better to a different data.

Frequencies and Flutter Speed Estimation for Damaged Aircraft Wing Using Scaled Equivalent Plate Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Krishnamurthy, Thiagarajan

2010-01-01

Equivalent plate analysis is often used to replace the computationally expensive finite element analysis in initial design stages or in conceptual design of aircraft wing structures. The equivalent plate model can also be used to design a wind tunnel model to match the stiffness characteristics of the wing box of a full-scale aircraft wing model while satisfying strength-based requirements An equivalent plate analysis technique is presented to predict the static and dynamic response of an aircraft wing with or without damage. First, a geometric scale factor and a dynamic pressure scale factor are defined to relate the stiffness, load and deformation of the equivalent plate to the aircraft wing. A procedure using an optimization technique is presented to create scaled equivalent plate models from the full scale aircraft wing using geometric and dynamic pressure scale factors. The scaled models are constructed by matching the stiffness of the scaled equivalent plate with the scaled aircraft wing stiffness. It is demonstrated that the scaled equivalent plate model can be used to predict the deformation of the aircraft wing accurately. Once the full equivalent plate geometry is obtained, any other scaled equivalent plate geometry can be obtained using the geometric scale factor. Next, an average frequency scale factor is defined as the average ratio of the frequencies of the aircraft wing to the frequencies of the full-scaled equivalent plate. The average frequency scale factor combined with the geometric scale factor is used to predict the frequency response of the aircraft wing from the scaled equivalent plate analysis. A procedure is outlined to estimate the frequency response and the flutter speed of an aircraft wing from the equivalent plate analysis using the frequency scale factor and geometric scale factor. The equivalent plate analysis is demonstrated using an aircraft wing without damage and another with damage. Both of the problems show that the scaled equivalent plate analysis can be successfully used to predict the frequencies and flutter speed of a typical aircraft wing.

Time-Average Molecular Rayleigh Scattering Technique for Measurement of Velocity, Denisty, Temperature, and Turbulence Intensity in High Speed Nozzle Flows

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mielke, Amy F.; Seasholtz, Richard G.; Elam, Kristie A.; Panda, Jayanta

2004-01-01

A molecular Rayleigh scattering based flow diagnostic is developed to measure time average velocity, density, temperature, and turbulence intensity in a 25.4-mm diameter nozzle free jet facility. The spectrum of the Rayleigh scattered light is analyzed using a Fabry-Perot interferometer operated in the static imaging mode. The resulting fringe pattern containing spectral information of the scattered light is recorded using a low noise CCD camera. Nonlinear least squares analysis of the fringe pattern using a kinetic theory model of the Rayleigh scattered light provides estimates of density, velocity, temperature, and turbulence intensity of the gas flow. Resulting flow parameter estimates are presented for an axial scan of subsonic flow at Mach 0.95 for comparison with previously acquired pitot tube data, and axial scans of supersonic flow in an underexpanded screeching jet. The issues related to obtaining accurate turbulence intensity measurements using this technique are discussed.

Heat conduction in periodic laminates with probabilistic distribution of material properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ostrowski, Piotr; Jędrysiak, Jarosław

2017-04-01

This contribution deals with a problem of heat conduction in a two-phase laminate made of periodically distributed micro-laminas along one direction. In general, the Fourier's Law describing the heat conduction in a considered composite has highly oscillating and discontinuous coefficients. Therefore, the tolerance averaging technique (cf. Woźniak et al. in Thermomechanics of microheterogeneous solids and structures. Monografie - Politechnika Łódzka, Wydawnictwo Politechniki Łódzkiej, Łódź, 2008) is applied. Based on this technique, the averaged differential equations for a tolerance-asymptotic model are derived and solved analytically for given initial-boundary conditions. The second part of this contribution is an investigation of the effect of material properties ratio ω of two components on the total temperature field θ, by the assumption that conductivities of micro-laminas are not necessary uniquely described. Numerical experiments (Monte Carlo simulation) are executed under assumption that ω is a random variable with a fixed probability distribution. At the end, based on the obtained results, a crucial hypothesis is formulated.

Creation of the BMA ensemble for SST using a parallel processing technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Kwangjin; Lee, Yang Won

2013-10-01

Despite the same purpose, each satellite product has different value because of its inescapable uncertainty. Also the satellite products have been calculated for a long time, and the kinds of the products are various and enormous. So the efforts for reducing the uncertainty and dealing with enormous data will be necessary. In this paper, we create an ensemble Sea Surface Temperature (SST) using MODIS Aqua, MODIS Terra and COMS (Communication Ocean and Meteorological Satellite). We used Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) as ensemble method. The principle of the BMA is synthesizing the conditional probability density function (PDF) using posterior probability as weight. The posterior probability is estimated using EM algorithm. The BMA PDF is obtained by weighted average. As the result, the ensemble SST showed the lowest RMSE and MAE, which proves the applicability of BMA for satellite data ensemble. As future work, parallel processing techniques using Hadoop framework will be adopted for more efficient computation of very big satellite data.

Comparisons of Particle Tracking Techniques and Galerkin Finite Element Methods in Flow Simulations on Watershed Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shih, D.; Yeh, G.

2009-12-01

This paper applies two numerical approximations, the particle tracking technique and Galerkin finite element method, to solve the diffusive wave equation in both one-dimensional and two-dimensional flow simulations. The finite element method is one of most commonly approaches in numerical problems. It can obtain accurate solutions, but calculation times may be rather extensive. The particle tracking technique, using either single-velocity or average-velocity tracks to efficiently perform advective transport, could use larger time-step sizes than the finite element method to significantly save computational time. Comparisons of the alternative approximations are examined in this poster. We adapt the model WASH123D to examine the work. WASH123D is an integrated multimedia, multi-processes, physics-based computational model suitable for various spatial-temporal scales, was first developed by Yeh et al., at 1998. The model has evolved in design capability and flexibility, and has been used for model calibrations and validations over the course of many years. In order to deliver a locally hydrological model in Taiwan, the Taiwan Typhoon and Flood Research Institute (TTFRI) is working with Prof. Yeh to develop next version of WASH123D. So, the work of our preliminary cooperationx is also sketched in this poster.

Numerical aerodynamic simulation facility. [for flows about three-dimensional configurations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bailey, F. R.; Hathaway, A. W.

1978-01-01

Critical to the advancement of computational aerodynamics capability is the ability to simulate flows about three-dimensional configurations that contain both compressible and viscous effects, including turbulence and flow separation at high Reynolds numbers. Analyses were conducted of two solution techniques for solving the Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes equations describing the mean motion of a turbulent flow with certain terms involving the transport of turbulent momentum and energy modeled by auxiliary equations. The first solution technique is an implicit approximate factorization finite-difference scheme applied to three-dimensional flows that avoids the restrictive stability conditions when small grid spacing is used. The approximate factorization reduces the solution process to a sequence of three one-dimensional problems with easily inverted matrices. The second technique is a hybrid explicit/implicit finite-difference scheme which is also factored and applied to three-dimensional flows. Both methods are applicable to problems with highly distorted grids and a variety of boundary conditions and turbulence models.

Minimally invasive screening for colitis using attenuated total internal reflectance Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy

PubMed Central

Titus, Jitto; Viennois, Emilie; Merlin, Didier; Perera, A. G. Unil

2016-01-01

This article describes a rapid, simple and cost-effective technique that could lead to a screening method for colitis without the need for biopsies or in vivo measurements. This screening technique includes the testing of serum using Attenuated Total Reflectance Fourier Transform Infrared (ATR-FTIR) spectroscopy for the colitis-induced increased presence of mannose. Chronic (Interleukin 10 knockout) and acute (Dextran Sodium Sulphate-induced) models for colitis are tested using the ATR-FTIR technique. Arthritis (Collagen Antibody Induced Arthritis) and metabolic syndrome (Toll like receptor 5 knockout) models are also tested as controls. The marker identified as mannose uniquely screens and distinguishes the colitic from the non-colitic samples and the controls. The reference or the baseline spectrum could be the pooled and averaged spectra of non-colitic samples or the subject's previous sample spectrum. This shows the potential of having individualized route maps of disease status, leading to personalized diagnosis and drug management. PMID:27094092

Computational technique for stepwise quantitative assessment of equation correctness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Othman, Nuru'l Izzah; Bakar, Zainab Abu

2017-04-01

Many of the computer-aided mathematics assessment systems that are available today possess the capability to implement stepwise correctness checking of a working scheme for solving equations. The computational technique for assessing the correctness of each response in the scheme mainly involves checking the mathematical equivalence and providing qualitative feedback. This paper presents a technique, known as the Stepwise Correctness Checking and Scoring (SCCS) technique that checks the correctness of each equation in terms of structural equivalence and provides quantitative feedback. The technique, which is based on the Multiset framework, adapts certain techniques from textual information retrieval involving tokenization, document modelling and similarity evaluation. The performance of the SCCS technique was tested using worked solutions on solving linear algebraic equations in one variable. 350 working schemes comprising of 1385 responses were collected using a marking engine prototype, which has been developed based on the technique. The results show that both the automated analytical scores and the automated overall scores generated by the marking engine exhibit high percent agreement, high correlation and high degree of agreement with manual scores with small average absolute and mixed errors.

Passive Super-Low Frequency electromagnetic prospecting technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Nan; Zhao, Shanshan; Hui, Jian; Qin, Qiming

2017-03-01

The Super-Low Frequency (SLF) electromagnetic prospecting technique, adopted as a non-imaging remote sensing tool for depth sounding, is systematically proposed for subsurface geological survey. In this paper, we propose and theoretically illustrate natural source magnetic amplitudes as SLF responses for the first step. In order to directly calculate multi-dimensional theoretical SLF responses, modeling algorithms were developed and evaluated using the finite difference method. The theoretical results of three-dimensional (3-D) models show that the average normalized SLF magnetic amplitude responses were numerically stable and appropriate for practical interpretation. To explore the depth resolution, three-layer models were configured. The modeling results prove that the SLF technique is more sensitive to conductive objective layers than high resistive ones, with the SLF responses of conductive objective layers obviously showing uprising amplitudes in the low frequency range. Afterwards, we proposed an improved Frequency-Depth transformation based on Bostick inversion to realize the depth sounding by empirically adjusting two parameters. The SLF technique has already been successfully applied in geothermal exploration and coalbed methane (CBM) reservoir interpretation, which demonstrates that the proposed methodology is effective in revealing low resistive distributions. Furthermore, it siginificantly contributes to reservoir identification with electromagnetic radiation anomaly extraction. Meanwhile, the SLF interpretation results are in accordance with dynamic production status of CBM reservoirs, which means it could provide an economical, convenient and promising method for exploring and monitoring subsurface geo-objects.

A simplified technique for delivering total body irradiation (TBI) with improved dose homogeneity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yao Rui; Bernard, Damian; Turian, Julius

2012-04-15

Purpose: Total body irradiation (TBI) with megavoltage photon beams has been accepted as an important component of management for a number of hematologic malignancies, generally as part of bone marrow conditioning regimens. The purpose of this paper is to present and discuss the authors' TBI technique, which both simplifies the treatment process and improves the treatment quality. Methods: An AP/PA TBI treatment technique to produce uniform dose distributions using sequential collimator reductions during each fraction was implemented, and a sample calculation worksheet is presented. Using this methodology, the dosimetric characteristics of both 6 and 18 MV photon beams, including lungmore » dose under cerrobend blocks was investigated. A method of estimating midplane lung doses based on measured entrance and exit doses was proposed, and the estimated results were compared with measurements. Results: Whole body midplane dose uniformity of {+-}10% was achieved with no more than two collimator-based beam modulations. The proposed model predicted midplane lung doses 5% to 10% higher than the measured doses for 6 and 18 MV beams. The estimated total midplane doses were within {+-}5% of the prescribed midplane dose on average except for the lungs where the doses were 6% to 10% lower than the prescribed dose on average. Conclusions: The proposed TBI technique can achieve dose uniformity within {+-}10%. This technique is easy to implement and does not require complicated dosimetry and/or compensators.« less

Ecological footprint model using the support vector machine technique.

PubMed

Ma, Haibo; Chang, Wenjuan; Cui, Guangbai

2012-01-01

The per capita ecological footprint (EF) is one of the most widely recognized measures of environmental sustainability. It aims to quantify the Earth's biological resources required to support human activity. In this paper, we summarize relevant previous literature, and present five factors that influence per capita EF. These factors are: National gross domestic product (GDP), urbanization (independent of economic development), distribution of income (measured by the Gini coefficient), export dependence (measured by the percentage of exports to total GDP), and service intensity (measured by the percentage of service to total GDP). A new ecological footprint model based on a support vector machine (SVM), which is a machine-learning method based on the structural risk minimization principle from statistical learning theory was conducted to calculate the per capita EF of 24 nations using data from 123 nations. The calculation accuracy was measured by average absolute error and average relative error. They were 0.004883 and 0.351078% respectively. Our results demonstrate that the EF model based on SVM has good calculation performance.

Solar corona electron density distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Esposito, P. B.; Edenhofer, P.; Lueneburg, E.

1980-07-01

The paper discusses the three and one-half months of single-frequency time delay data which were acquired from the Helios 2 spacecraft around the time of its solar occultation. The excess time delay due to integrated effect of free electrons along the signal's ray path could be separated and modeled following the determination of the spacecraft trajectory. An average solar corona and equatorial electron density profile during solar minimum were deduced from the time delay measurements acquired within 5-60 solar radii of the sun. As a point of reference at 10 solar radii from the sun, an average electron density was 4500 el/cu cm. However, an asymmetry was found in the electron density as the ray path moved from the west to east solar limb. This may be related to the fact that during entry into occultation the heliographic latitude of the ray path was about 6 deg, while during exit it was 7 deg. The Helios density model is compared with similar models deduced from different experimental techniques.

Ensemble averaging and stacking of ARIMA and GSTAR model for rainfall forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anggraeni, D.; Kurnia, I. F.; Hadi, A. F.

2018-04-01

Unpredictable rainfall changes can affect human activities, such as in agriculture, aviation, shipping which depend on weather forecasts. Therefore, we need forecasting tools with high accuracy in predicting the rainfall in the future. This research focus on local forcasting of the rainfall at Jember in 2005 until 2016, from 77 rainfall stations. The rainfall here was not only related to the occurrence of the previous of its stations, but also related to others, it’s called the spatial effect. The aim of this research is to apply the GSTAR model, to determine whether there are some correlations of spatial effect between one to another stations. The GSTAR model is an expansion of the space-time model that combines the time-related effects, the locations (stations) in a time series effects, and also the location it self. The GSTAR model will also be compared to the ARIMA model that completely ignores the independent variables. The forcested value of the ARIMA and of the GSTAR models then being combined using the ensemble forecasting technique. The averaging and stacking method of ensemble forecasting method here provide us the best model with higher acuracy model that has the smaller RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) value. Finally, with the best model we can offer a better local rainfall forecasting in Jember for the future.

Radar studies related to the earth resources program. [remote sensing programs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Holtzman, J.

1972-01-01

The radar systems research discussed is directed toward achieving successful application of radar to remote sensing problems in such areas as geology, hydrology, agriculture, geography, forestry, and oceanography. Topics discussed include imaging radar and evaluation of its modification, study of digital processing for synthetic aperture system, digital simulation of synthetic aperture system, averaging techniques studies, ultrasonic modeling of panchromatic system, panchromatic radar/radar spectrometer development, measuring octave-bandwidth response of selected targets, scatterometer system analysis, and a model Fresnel-zone processor for synthetic aperture imagery.

Six-axis orthodontic force and moment sensing system for dentist technique training.

PubMed

Midorikawa, Yoshiyuki; Takemura, Hiroshi; Mizoguchi, Hiroshi; Soga, Kohei; Kamimura, Masao; Suga, Kazuhiro; Wei-Jen Lai; Kanno, Zuisei; Uo, Motohiro

2016-08-01

The purpose of this study is to develop a sensing system device that measures three-axis orthodontic forces and three-axis orthodontic moments for dentist training. The developed sensing system is composed of six-axis force sensors, action sticks, sliders, and tooth models. The developed system also simulates various types of tooth row shape patterns in orthodontic operations, and measures a 14 × 6 axis orthodontic force and moment from tooth models simultaneously. The average force and moment error per loaded axis were 2.06 % and 2.00 %, respectively.

A comparison of computer-assisted and manual wound size measurement.

PubMed

Thawer, Habiba A; Houghton, Pamela E; Woodbury, M Gail; Keast, David; Campbell, Karen

2002-10-01

Accurate and precise wound measurements are a critical component of every wound assessment. To examine the reliability and validity of a new computerized technique for measuring human and animal wounds, chronic human wounds (N = 45) and surgical animal wounds (N = 38) were assessed using manual and computerized techniques. Using intraclass correlation coefficients, intrarater and interrater reliability of surface area measurements obtained using the computerized technique were compared to those obtained using acetate tracings and planimetry. A single measurement of surface area using either technique produced excellent intrarater and interrater reliability for both human and animal wounds, but the computerized technique was more precise than the manual technique for measuring the surface area of animal wounds. For both types of wounds and measurement techniques, intrarater and interrater reliability improved when the average of three repeated measurements was obtained. The precision of each technique with human wounds and the precision of the manual technique with animal wounds also improved when three repeated measurement results were averaged. Concurrent validity between the two techniques was excellent for human wounds but poor for the smaller animal wounds, regardless of whether single or the average of three repeated surface area measurements was used. The computerized technique permits reliable and valid assessment of the surface area of both human and animal wounds.

[Applying the clustering technique for characterising maintenance outsourcing].

PubMed

Cruz, Antonio M; Usaquén-Perilla, Sandra P; Vanegas-Pabón, Nidia N; Lopera, Carolina

2010-06-01

Using clustering techniques for characterising companies providing health institutions with maintenance services. The study analysed seven pilot areas' equipment inventory (264 medical devices). Clustering techniques were applied using 26 variables. Response time (RT), operation duration (OD), availability and turnaround time (TAT) were amongst the most significant ones. Average biomedical equipment obsolescence value was 0.78. Four service provider clusters were identified: clusters 1 and 3 had better performance, lower TAT, RT and DR values (56 % of the providers coded O, L, C, B, I, S, H, F and G, had 1 to 4 day TAT values:

Biomechanical stability of intramedullary technique for fixation of joint depressed calcaneus fracture.

PubMed

Nelson, Joshua D; McIff, Terence E; Moodie, Patrick G; Iverson, Jamey L; Horton, Greg A

2010-03-01

Internal fixation of the os calcis is often complicated by prolonged soft tissue management and posterior facet disruption. An ideal calcaneal construct would include minimal hardware prominence, sturdy posterior facet fixation and nominal soft tissue disruption. The purpose of this study was to develop such a construct and provide a biomechanical analysis comparing our technique to a standard internal fixation technique. Twenty fresh-frozen cadaver calcanei were used to create a reproducible Sanders type-IIB calcaneal fracture pattern. One calcaneus of each pair was randomly selected to be fixed using our compressive headless screw technique. The contralateral matched calcaneus was fixed with a nonlocking calcaneal plate in a traditional fashion. Each calcaneus was cyclically loaded at a frequency of 1 Hz for 4000 cycles using an increasing force from 250 N to 1000 N. An Optotrak motion capturing system was used to detect relative motion of the three fracture fragments at eight different points along the fracture lines. Horizontal separation and vertical displacement at the fracture lines was recorded, as well as relative rotation at the primary fracture line. When the data were averaged, there was more horizontal displacement at the primary fracture line of the plate and screw construct compared to the headless screw construct. The headless screw construct also had less vertical displacement at the primary fracture line at every load. On average those fractures fixed with the headless screw technique had less rotation than those fixed with the side plate technique. A new headless screw technique for calcaneus fracture fixation was shown to provide stability as good as, or better than, a standard side plating technique under the axial loading conditions of our model. Although further testing is needed, the stability of the proposed technique is similar to that typically provided by intramedullary fixation. This fixation technique provides a biomechanically stable construct with the potential for a minimally invasive approach and improved post-operative soft tissue healing.

In vivo evaluation of inter-operator reproducibility of digital dental and conventional impression techniques

PubMed Central

Kamimura, Emi; Tanaka, Shinpei; Takaba, Masayuki; Tachi, Keita; Baba, Kazuyoshi

2017-01-01

Purpose The aim of this study was to evaluate and compare the inter-operator reproducibility of three-dimensional (3D) images of teeth captured by a digital impression technique to a conventional impression technique in vivo. Materials and methods Twelve participants with complete natural dentition were included in this study. A digital impression of the mandibular molars of these participants was made by two operators with different levels of clinical experience, 3 or 16 years, using an intra-oral scanner (Lava COS, 3M ESPE). A silicone impression also was made by the same operators using the double mix impression technique (Imprint3, 3M ESPE). Stereolithography (STL) data were directly exported from the Lava COS system, while STL data of a plaster model made from silicone impression were captured by a three-dimensional (3D) laboratory scanner (D810, 3shape). The STL datasets recorded by two different operators were compared using 3D evaluation software and superimposed using the best-fit-algorithm method (least-squares method, PolyWorks, InnovMetric Software) for each impression technique. Inter-operator reproducibility as evaluated by average discrepancies of corresponding 3D data was compared between the two techniques (Wilcoxon signed-rank test). Results The visual inspection of superimposed datasets revealed that discrepancies between repeated digital impression were smaller than observed with silicone impression. Confirmation was forthcoming from statistical analysis revealing significantly smaller average inter-operator reproducibility using a digital impression technique (0.014± 0.02 mm) than when using a conventional impression technique (0.023 ± 0.01 mm). Conclusion The results of this in vivo study suggest that inter-operator reproducibility with a digital impression technique may be better than that of a conventional impression technique and is independent of the clinical experience of the operator. PMID:28636642

Intelligent Soft Computing on Forex: Exchange Rates Forecasting with Hybrid Radial Basis Neural Network

PubMed Central

Marcek, Dusan; Durisova, Maria

2016-01-01

This paper deals with application of quantitative soft computing prediction models into financial area as reliable and accurate prediction models can be very helpful in management decision-making process. The authors suggest a new hybrid neural network which is a combination of the standard RBF neural network, a genetic algorithm, and a moving average. The moving average is supposed to enhance the outputs of the network using the error part of the original neural network. Authors test the suggested model on high-frequency time series data of USD/CAD and examine the ability to forecast exchange rate values for the horizon of one day. To determine the forecasting efficiency, they perform a comparative statistical out-of-sample analysis of the tested model with autoregressive models and the standard neural network. They also incorporate genetic algorithm as an optimizing technique for adapting parameters of ANN which is then compared with standard backpropagation and backpropagation combined with K-means clustering algorithm. Finally, the authors find out that their suggested hybrid neural network is able to produce more accurate forecasts than the standard models and can be helpful in eliminating the risk of making the bad decision in decision-making process. PMID:26977450

Intelligent Soft Computing on Forex: Exchange Rates Forecasting with Hybrid Radial Basis Neural Network.

PubMed

Falat, Lukas; Marcek, Dusan; Durisova, Maria

2016-01-01

This paper deals with application of quantitative soft computing prediction models into financial area as reliable and accurate prediction models can be very helpful in management decision-making process. The authors suggest a new hybrid neural network which is a combination of the standard RBF neural network, a genetic algorithm, and a moving average. The moving average is supposed to enhance the outputs of the network using the error part of the original neural network. Authors test the suggested model on high-frequency time series data of USD/CAD and examine the ability to forecast exchange rate values for the horizon of one day. To determine the forecasting efficiency, they perform a comparative statistical out-of-sample analysis of the tested model with autoregressive models and the standard neural network. They also incorporate genetic algorithm as an optimizing technique for adapting parameters of ANN which is then compared with standard backpropagation and backpropagation combined with K-means clustering algorithm. Finally, the authors find out that their suggested hybrid neural network is able to produce more accurate forecasts than the standard models and can be helpful in eliminating the risk of making the bad decision in decision-making process.

Decadal climate predictions improved by ocean ensemble dispersion filtering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kadow, C.; Illing, S.; Kröner, I.; Ulbrich, U.; Cubasch, U.

2017-06-01

Decadal predictions by Earth system models aim to capture the state and phase of the climate several years in advance. Atmosphere-ocean interaction plays an important role for such climate forecasts. While short-term weather forecasts represent an initial value problem and long-term climate projections represent a boundary condition problem, the decadal climate prediction falls in-between these two time scales. In recent years, more precise initialization techniques of coupled Earth system models and increased ensemble sizes have improved decadal predictions. However, climate models in general start losing the initialized signal and its predictive skill from one forecast year to the next. Here we show that the climate prediction skill of an Earth system model can be improved by a shift of the ocean state toward the ensemble mean of its individual members at seasonal intervals. We found that this procedure, called ensemble dispersion filter, results in more accurate results than the standard decadal prediction. Global mean and regional temperature, precipitation, and winter cyclone predictions show an increased skill up to 5 years ahead. Furthermore, the novel technique outperforms predictions with larger ensembles and higher resolution. Our results demonstrate how decadal climate predictions benefit from ocean ensemble dispersion filtering toward the ensemble mean.